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000
FXUS61 KBTV 241805
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
205 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR
MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY, WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR PATCHY
DRIZZLE EXPECTED. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ARRIVES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 132 PM EDT FRIDAY...WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON REFRESH OF THE
FORECAST I HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES OTHER THAN "IN THE WEEDS"
SORT OF STUFF TO MESH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST UP WITH
THE MOST RECENT RADAR/SATELLITE/OBSERVATION TRENDS.

SLOOOOOOW IMPROVEMENT IS UNDERWAY. ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE NOT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS OR DRIZZLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHEN YOU GET UP
INTO THE CLOUDS.

OUTSIDE OF THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THERE ARE A FEW PEEKS OF
SUN, THE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GO NOWHERE. FOR EXAMPLE, HERE AT
BTV WE ARE NOW 45F UP 3 WHOLE DEGREES FROM THE MORNING LOW.
MONTPELIER HAS ONLY RISEN 2 DEGREES (NOW 42 VS 40 FOR LOW). THE
PRIOR ADJUSTEMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...VARIABLE CLOUDS THEN GRADUALLY TREND
PTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SKIRTS ACROSS THE
AREA. ADVECTIVE PROCESSES NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND WITH AT LEAST
SOME LINGERING/PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND NEAR SEASONAL LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING RATHER
ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DROPPING ESE INTO OUR REGION WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. ENERGY WILL ARRIVE IN TWO BUNDLES...THE
FIRST OCCURRING BY SATURDAY EVENING AND THE SECOND DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY. LATEST NWP TRENDS SUGGEST BETTER DYNAMICAL
SUPPORT FOR PCPN TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY WHERE IVE OFFERED A DECENT SHOT OF SHOWERS
(50-70%). QPF NOT ALL THAT HEAVY GIVEN CONTINENTAL SOURCE REGION OF
THE FEATURE...BUT A GOOD BET THAT MANY AREAS WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS.
THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS MUCH OF THE
DAY WILL BE DRY OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND WHERE 925 MB THERMAL
PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. BY SUNDAY...ARRIVAL OF
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL HERALD SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS (46 TO 54). AS
COLDER AIR ARRIVES ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...PCPN WILL
LIKELY TREND TO SNOW ABOVE 3000 FT WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAYS END.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY SUPPORTING SOME
LINGERING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL-NORTHEAST VERMONT.
TEMPS WILL RUN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWS SUN/MON
NIGHTS IN THE 30S AND 40S...AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S AND 50S.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES INCREASES SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISING TO AROUND 560DM TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
850MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW
SHIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...A THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE
LACKING COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH FROPA TIMING WHICH IS A BIT
FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. BASED ON CURRENT PROGS...COLD FRONT WOULD
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS
AND TEMPS FALLING SHARPLY THROUGH THE DAY UNDER STRONG CAA.

THEREAFTER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT. THIS WILL OFFER A GENERALLY DRY
FORECAST WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
AT 18Z FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION SHOWING
CEILINGS SLOWLY RISING ACROSS THE REGION THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR ACROSS THE REGION BY 04Z
SATURDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. AS SKIES CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT...GFS LAMP GUIDANCE
HINTING AT SOME FOG AT KMPV...SO HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF DENSE
FOG AT KMPV FROM 07Z-14Z SATURDAY...BUT THIS IS DEPENDENT ON SKIES
CLEARING OUT OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z WEDNESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...WGH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 241739
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
139 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR
MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY, WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR PATCHY
DRIZZLE EXPECTED. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ARRIVES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 132 PM EDT FRIDAY...WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON REFRESH OF THE
FORECAST I HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES OTHER THAN "IN THE WEEDS"
SORT OF STUFF TO MESH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST UP WITH
THE MOST RECENT RADAR/SATELLITE/OBSERVATION TRENDS.

SLOOOOOOW IMPROVEMENT IS UNDERWAY. ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE NOT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS OR DRIZZLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHEN YOU GET UP
INTO THE CLOUDS.

OUTSIDE OF THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE THERE ARE A FEW PEEKS OF
SUN, THE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GO NOWHERE. FOR EXAMPLE, HERE AT
BTV WE ARE NOW 45F UP 3 WHOLE DEGREES FROM THE MORNING LOW.
MONTPELIER HAS ONLY RISEN 2 DEGREES (NOW 42 VS 40 FOR LOW). THE
PRIOR ADJUSTEMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...VARIABLE CLOUDS THEN GRADUALLY TREND
PTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SKIRTS ACROSS THE
AREA. ADVECTIVE PROCESSES NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND WITH AT LEAST
SOME LINGERING/PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND NEAR SEASONAL LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING RATHER
ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DROPPING ESE INTO OUR REGION WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. ENERGY WILL ARRIVE IN TWO BUNDLES...THE
FIRST OCCURRING BY SATURDAY EVENING AND THE SECOND DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY. LATEST NWP TRENDS SUGGEST BETTER DYNAMICAL
SUPPORT FOR PCPN TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY WHERE IVE OFFERED A DECENT SHOT OF SHOWERS
(50-70%). QPF NOT ALL THAT HEAVY GIVEN CONTINENTAL SOURCE REGION OF
THE FEATURE...BUT A GOOD BET THAT MANY AREAS WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS.
THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS MUCH OF THE
DAY WILL BE DRY OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND WHERE 925 MB THERMAL
PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. BY SUNDAY...ARRIVAL OF
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL HERALD SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS (46 TO 54). AS
COLDER AIR ARRIVES ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...PCPN WILL
LIKELY TREND TO SNOW ABOVE 3000 FT WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAYS END.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY SUPPORTING SOME
LINGERING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL-NORTHEAST VERMONT.
TEMPS WILL RUN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWS SUN/MON
NIGHTS IN THE 30S AND 40S...AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S AND 50S.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES INCREASES SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISING TO AROUND 560DM TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
850MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW
SHIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...A THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE
LACKING COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH FROPA TIMING WHICH IS A BIT
FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. BASED ON CURRENT PROGS...COLD FRONT WOULD
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS
AND TEMPS FALLING SHARPLY THROUGH THE DAY UNDER STRONG CAA.

THEREAFTER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT. THIS WILL OFFER A GENERALLY DRY
FORECAST WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...A MIX OF IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF TODAY AS MOISTURE FEED OFF THE GULF OF MAINE
CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTION WILL BE KMSS
WHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND MVFR
VSBY REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH 16Z FROM KSLK EASTWARD AS WELL.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 16Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A
SHARP IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT REVEALING MID/HIGH VFR DECK. ALL SITES ARE VFR AFTER
00Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SATURDAY - 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN
VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD
FRONT BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 241736
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT...WHILE SHOWERS HAVE ALL BEEN DIMINISHED...POCKETS
OF DRIZZLE REMAIN. WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWER/DRIZZLE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE PER THE 1KM VIS SAT IMAGERY WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST OVER OUR WESTERN HERKIMER COUNTY. THESE
BREAKS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARD LATE IN THE DAY.

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME REMAINS DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW
PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WITH THE
CLOUDS AROUND...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH A WARMING TREND. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND
40. HIGHS MONDAY GENERALLY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 35 TO 45.
HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE REGION AND PRODUCE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY
WITH FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A DEPARTING COASTAL LOW CONTINUES
TO KEEP BKN-OVC CIGS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...WITH FLYING
CONDITIONS MVFR DUE TO CIGS. THERE MAY BE A FEW POCKETS OF -DZ
AROUND KALB FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL
PRECIP IS EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM. MVFR CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BY LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR ALL
SITES...AS CLOUDS GRADUALLY SCT OUT FROM WEST TO EAST...AND CIGS
BEGIN TO RISE. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS THIS
AFTN...AND START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL STORM
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY.

MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE JUST SCT T0 FEW CLOUDS BY LATE TONIGHT. IF
ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS...THE LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME IFR BR/FG TO DEVELOP AT KGFL...OTHERWISE FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR ALL SITES WITH LIGHT WEST T0
NORTHWEST WINDS.

SOME CLOUDS /MAINLY OF THE HIGHER VARIETY/ LOOK TO INCREASE ON
SATURDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE MOST CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND KGFL...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 241710
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
110 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT...WHILE SHOWERS HAVE ALL BEEN DIMINISHED...POCKETS
OF DRIZZLE REMAIN. WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWER/DRIZZLE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE PER THE 1KM VIS SAT IMAGERY WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST OVER OUR WESTERN HERKIMER COUNTY. THESE
BREAKS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARD LATE IN THE DAY.

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME REMAINS DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW
PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WITH THE
CLOUDS AROUND...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH A WARMING TREND. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND
40. HIGHS MONDAY GENERALLY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 35 TO 45.
HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE REGION AND PRODUCE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY
WITH FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE LAST BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITH THIS AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY DUE TO CIGS...THERE HAS NOT BEEN AN IFR
VSBY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE FORECAST MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF THROUGH AROUND 15Z...THEN MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VFR
VSBYS THROUGH 18Z TO 20Z...THEN VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER AS DRIER
AIR RETURNS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG TO FORM
LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM. A
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND AT KALB/KPSF WILL LIKELY PREVENT FOG FORMATION.

AT KPOU CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO VFR/MVFR AND EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SATURDAY. DESPITE THE VFR CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE SOME -RA THIS
MORNING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS EARLY
TODAY...THEN EVENTUALLY TURN TO NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS
LATER TODAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY






000
FXUS61 KBTV 241547
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1147 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION
TODAY WITH MORNING SHOWERS OR PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TAPERING OFF
AS THE DAY WEARS ON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ARRIVES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1140 AM EDT FRIDAY...JUST FINISHED A LITTLE BELATED LATE
MORNING UPDATE, BUT IN GENERAL THE OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

THE DEEP MOISTURE IS DEPARTING, AND BASED ON WEB CAMS AND SURFACE
OBS, THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH MORE THAN SPOTTY DRIZZLE OR
VERY LIGHT RAIN, AND THIS IS MAINLY ACROSS VERMONT. ON THE OTHER
SIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA, SKIES ARE STARTING TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY
POKING INTO THE LOWER 50S THERE. FOR EVERYONE ELSE, LOW-MID 40S IS
ABOUT ALL (EXCEPT THE HIGHEST PEAKS ABOVE 4000FT WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE LOWER 30S WITH SOME LIGHT ICING
HAPPENING SINCE THEY ARE IN THE CLOUDS).

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, THE IMPROVEMENT PROCESS IS GOING TO
BE PAINFULLY SLOW FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. PERHAPS SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, BUT THAT WON`T BE UNTIL JUST BEFORE SUNSET AT THE VERY
EARLIEST. AS A RESULT, I KNOCKED TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES
FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD AS THE CLOUDS AND CONTINUED
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS ON THE COOL SIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...VARIABLE CLOUDS THEN GRADUALLY TREND
PTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SKIRTS ACROSS THE
AREA. ADVECTIVE PROCESSES NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND WITH AT LEAST
SOME LINGERING/PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND NEAR SEASONAL LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING RATHER
ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DROPPING ESE INTO OUR REGION WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. ENERGY WILL ARRIVE IN TWO BUNDLES...THE
FIRST OCCURRING BY SATURDAY EVENING AND THE SECOND DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY. LATEST NWP TRENDS SUGGEST BETTER DYNAMICAL
SUPPORT FOR PCPN TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY WHERE IVE OFFERED A DECENT SHOT OF SHOWERS
(50-70%). QPF NOT ALL THAT HEAVY GIVEN CONTINENTAL SOURCE REGION OF
THE FEATURE...BUT A GOOD BET THAT MANY AREAS WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS.
THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS MUCH OF THE
DAY WILL BE DRY OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND WHERE 925 MB THERMAL
PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. BY SUNDAY...ARRIVAL OF
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL HERALD SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS (46 TO 54). AS
COLDER AIR ARRIVES ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...PCPN WILL
LIKELY TREND TO SNOW ABOVE 3000 FT WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAYS END.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY SUPPORTING SOME
LINGERING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL-NORTHEAST VERMONT.
TEMPS WILL RUN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWS SUN/MON
NIGHTS IN THE 30S AND 40S...AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S AND 50S.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES INCREASES SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISING TO AROUND 560DM TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
850MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW
SHIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...A THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE
LACKING COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH FROPA TIMING WHICH IS A BIT
FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. BASED ON CURRENT PROGS...COLD FRONT WOULD
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS
AND TEMPS FALLING SHARPLY THROUGH THE DAY UNDER STRONG CAA.

THEREAFTER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT. THIS WILL OFFER A GENERALLY DRY
FORECAST WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...A MIX OF IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF TODAY AS MOISTURE FEED OFF THE GULF OF MAINE
CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTION WILL BE KMSS
WHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND MVFR
VSBY REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH 16Z FROM KSLK EASTWARD AS WELL.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 16Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A
SHARP IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT REVEALING MID/HIGH VFR DECK. ALL SITES ARE VFR AFTER
00Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SATURDAY - 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN
VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD
FRONT BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 241420
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1020 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1020 AM EDT...KENX RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY ENDED
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE IS STILL ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF MIST AND
DRIZZLE...AND LOTS OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AS WELL.

DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS SHOULD END BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AS WE WILL STILL
BE IN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW
PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WITH THE
CLOUDS AROUND...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH A WARMING TREND. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND
40. HIGHS MONDAY GENERALLY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 35 TO 45.
HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE REGION AND PRODUCE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY
WITH FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE LAST BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITH THIS AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY DUE TO CIGS...THERE HAS NOT BEEN AN IFR
VSBY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE FORECAST MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF THROUGH AROUND 15Z...THEN MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VFR
VSBYS THROUGH 18Z TO 20Z...THEN VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER AS DRIER
AIR RETURNS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG TO FORM
LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM. A
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND AT KALB/KPSF WILL LIKELY PREVENT FOG FORMATION.

AT KPOU CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO VFR/MVFR AND EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SATURDAY. DESPITE THE VFR CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE SOME -RA THIS
MORNING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS EARLY
TODAY...THEN EVENTUALLY TURN TO NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS
LATER TODAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 241420
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1020 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1020 AM EDT...KENX RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY ENDED
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE IS STILL ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF MIST AND
DRIZZLE...AND LOTS OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AS WELL.

DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS SHOULD END BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AS WE WILL STILL
BE IN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW
PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WITH THE
CLOUDS AROUND...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH A WARMING TREND. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND
40. HIGHS MONDAY GENERALLY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 35 TO 45.
HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE REGION AND PRODUCE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY
WITH FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE LAST BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITH THIS AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY DUE TO CIGS...THERE HAS NOT BEEN AN IFR
VSBY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE FORECAST MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF THROUGH AROUND 15Z...THEN MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VFR
VSBYS THROUGH 18Z TO 20Z...THEN VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER AS DRIER
AIR RETURNS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG TO FORM
LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM. A
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND AT KALB/KPSF WILL LIKELY PREVENT FOG FORMATION.

AT KPOU CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO VFR/MVFR AND EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SATURDAY. DESPITE THE VFR CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE SOME -RA THIS
MORNING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS EARLY
TODAY...THEN EVENTUALLY TURN TO NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS
LATER TODAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 241137
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
737 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION
TODAY WITH MORNING SHOWERS OR PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TAPERING OFF
AS THE DAY WEARS ON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ARRIVES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 711 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS PACKAGE. PATCHY SHOWERS/AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN AND/OR -DZ CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FCST
AREA AS OF 700 AM AS TEMPERATURES HOVER WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
40F. STILL EXPECTING OVERALL COVERAGE OF PCPN TO WANE THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY...ESP BY THIS AFTERNOON. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE
A GREAT DAY.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IN DECENT SHAPE AS WE PROGRESS INTO YOUR FRIDAY.
OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE BENCHMARK EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PULL SLOWLY AWAY FROM OUR AREA THROUGH
THE DAY. AS A RESULT...PERSISTENT MOIST...EAST/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY ABATE AS DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION WANES
OVER TIME. HIGHEST POPS GENERALLY EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE DACKS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL/NRN VT THIS MORNING WHERE
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS
TO THEN TREND MAINLY DRY IN MOST AREAS BY EARLY EVENING. HIGHS TO
CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE COOL SIDE...GENERALLY FROM 45 TO 51 FROM
THE DACKS EASTWARD INTO VERMONT AND SLIGHTLY MILDER (50S) IN THE
SLV WHERE SOME PARTIAL LATE DAY SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...VARIABLE CLOUDS THEN GRADUALLY TREND
PTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SKIRTS ACROSS THE
AREA. ADVECTIVE PROCESSES NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND WITH AT LEAST
SOME LINGERING/PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND NEAR SEASONAL LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING RATHER
ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DROPPING ESE INTO OUR REGION WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. ENERGY WILL ARRIVE IN TWO BUNDLES...THE
FIRST OCCURRING BY SATURDAY EVENING AND THE SECOND DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY. LATEST NWP TRENDS SUGGEST BETTER DYNAMICAL
SUPPORT FOR PCPN TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY WHERE IVE OFFERED A DECENT SHOT OF SHOWERS
(50-70%). QPF NOT ALL THAT HEAVY GIVEN CONTINENTAL SOURCE REGION OF
THE FEATURE...BUT A GOOD BET THAT MANY AREAS WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS.
THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS MUCH OF THE
DAY WILL BE DRY OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND WHERE 925 MB THERMAL
PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. BY SUNDAY...ARRIVAL OF
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL HERALD SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS (46 TO 54). AS
COLDER AIR ARRIVES ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...PCPN WILL
LIKELY TREND TO SNOW ABOVE 3000 FT WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAYS END.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY SUPPORTING SOME
LINGERING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL-NORTHEAST VERMONT.
TEMPS WILL RUN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWS SUN/MON
NIGHTS IN THE 30S AND 40S...AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S AND 50S.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES INCREASES SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISING TO AROUND 560DM TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
850MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW
SHIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...A THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE
LACKING COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH FROPA TIMING WHICH IS A BIT
FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. BASED ON CURRENT PROGS...COLD FRONT WOULD
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS
AND TEMPS FALLING SHARPLY THROUGH THE DAY UNDER STRONG CAA.

THEREAFTER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT. THIS WILL OFFER A GENERALLY DRY
FORECAST WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...A MIX OF IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF TODAY AS MOISTURE FEED OFF THE GULF OF MAINE
CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTION WILL BE KMSS
WHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND MVFR
VSBY REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH 16Z FROM KSLK EASTWARD AS WELL.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 16Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A
SHARP IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT REVEALING MID/HIGH VFR DECK. ALL SITES ARE VFR AFTER
00Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SATURDAY - 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN
VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD
FRONT BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 241133
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
733 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...LAST EXPECTED BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN GRADUALLY
PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...TACONICS...
BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF
RAIN APPEARS TO HAVE LOST ITS CONNECTION TO UPSTREAM MOISTURE...AS
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS. SO THIS RAIN SHOULD TEND TO BREAK UP AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SO WILL HOLD ON TO HIGHER POPS
FOR THIS AREA THIS MORNING. WILL DECREASE POPS CONSIDERABLY BY
AFTERNOON...WITH LACK OF ANY DISCERNIBLE FORCING LEFT.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY AS WE
WILL STILL BE IN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME MUCH OF THE DAY
DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. EVEN WITH A RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY
RELATIVE TO NORMAL...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH A WARMING TREND. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND
40. HIGHS MONDAY GENERALLY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 35 TO 45.
HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE REGION AND PRODUCE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY
WITH FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE LAST BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITH THIS AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY DUE TO CIGS...THERE HAS NOT BEEN AN IFR
VSBY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE FORECAST MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF THROUGH AROUND 15Z...THEN MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VFR
VSBYS THROUGH 18Z TO 20Z...THEN VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER AS DRIER
AIR RETURNS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG TO FORM
LATE TONIGHT AT KGFL WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM. A
LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND AT KALB/KPSF WILL LIKELY PREVENT FOG FORMATION.

AT KPOU CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO VFR/MVFR AND EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SATURDAY. DESPITE THE VFR CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE SOME -RA THIS
MORNING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS EARLY
TODAY...THEN EVENTUALLY TURN TO NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS
LATER TODAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 241111
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
711 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION
TODAY WITH MORNING SHOWERS OR PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TAPERING OFF
AS THE DAY WEARS ON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ARRIVES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 711 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS PACKAGE. PATCHY SHOWERS/AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN AND/OR -DZ CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FCST
AREA AS OF 700 AM AS TEMPERATURES HOVER WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
40F. STILL EXPECTING OVERALL COVERAGE OF PCPN TO WANE THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY...ESP BY THIS AFTERNOON. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE
A GREAT DAY.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IN DECENT SHAPE AS WE PROGRESS INTO YOUR FRIDAY.
OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE BENCHMARK EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PULL SLOWLY AWAY FROM OUR AREA THROUGH
THE DAY. AS A RESULT...PERSISTENT MOIST...EAST/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY ABATE AS DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION WANES
OVER TIME. HIGHEST POPS GENERALLY EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE DACKS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL/NRN VT THIS MORNING WHERE
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS
TO THEN TREND MAINLY DRY IN MOST AREAS BY EARLY EVENING. HIGHS TO
CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE COOL SIDE...GENERALLY FROM 45 TO 51 FROM
THE DACKS EASTWARD INTO VERMONT AND SLIGHTLY MILDER (50S) IN THE
SLV WHERE SOME PARTIAL LATE DAY SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...VARIABLE CLOUDS THEN GRADUALLY TREND
PTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SKIRTS ACROSS THE
AREA. ADVECTIVE PROCESSES NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND WITH AT LEAST
SOME LINGERING/PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND NEAR SEASONAL LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING RATHER
ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DROPPING ESE INTO OUR REGION WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. ENERGY WILL ARRIVE IN TWO BUNDLES...THE
FIRST OCCURRING BY SATURDAY EVENING AND THE SECOND DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY. LATEST NWP TRENDS SUGGEST BETTER DYNAMICAL
SUPPORT FOR PCPN TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY WHERE IVE OFFERED A DECENT SHOT OF SHOWERS
(50-70%). QPF NOT ALL THAT HEAVY GIVEN CONTINENTAL SOURCE REGION OF
THE FEATURE...BUT A GOOD BET THAT MANY AREAS WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS.
THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS MUCH OF THE
DAY WILL BE DRY OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND WHERE 925 MB THERMAL
PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. BY SUNDAY...ARRIVAL OF
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL HERALD SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS (46 TO 54). AS
COLDER AIR ARRIVES ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...PCPN WILL
LIKELY TREND TO SNOW ABOVE 3000 FT WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAYS END.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY SUPPORTING SOME
LINGERING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL-NORTHEAST VERMONT.
TEMPS WILL RUN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWS SUN/MON
NIGHTS IN THE 30S AND 40S...AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S AND 50S.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES INCREASES SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISING TO AROUND 560DM TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
850MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW
SHIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...A THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE
LACKING COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH FROPA TIMING WHICH IS A BIT
FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. BASED ON CURRENT PROGS...COLD FRONT WOULD
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT QPPF AMOUNTS AND
TEMPS FALLING SHARPLY THROUGH THE DAY UNDER STRONG CAA.

THEREAFTER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT. THIS WILL OFFER A GENERALLY DRY
FORECAST WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...IFR TO LIFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOISTURE FEED OFF THE GULF OF MAINE CONTINUES
TO STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTION WILL BE KMSS WHERE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE TRYING TO SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME MVFR
VSBY LIKELY THROUGH 12Z FROM KPBG EASTWARD. KSLK/KMSS LIKELY
REMAIN RAIN FREE...THOUGH SOME ON/OFF P6SM DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 14Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
A SHARP IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS MID-AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS SCATTER
OUT REVEALING MID/HIGH VFR DECK. ALL SITES ARE VFR AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SATURDAY - 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN
VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD
FRONT BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 241045
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...LAST EXPECTED BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN GRADUALLY
PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...TACONICS...
BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF
RAIN APPEARS TO HAVE LOST ITS CONNECTION TO UPSTREAM MOISTURE...AS
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS. SO THIS RAIN SHOULD TEND TO BREAK UP AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SO WILL HOLD ON TO HIGHER POPS
FOR THIS AREA THIS MORNING. WILL DECREASE POPS CONSIDERABLY BY
AFTERNOON...WITH LACK OF ANY DISCERNIBLE FORCING LEFT.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY AS WE
WILL STILL BE IN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME MUCH OF THE DAY
DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. EVEN WITH A RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY
RELATIVE TO NORMAL...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH A WARMING TREND. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND
40. HIGHS MONDAY GENERALLY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 35 TO 45.
HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE REGION AND PRODUCE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY
WITH FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS) THROUGH NOONTIME
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AT KALB/KPSF
DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT KPOU...
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. BETWEEN
14Z AND 18Z...ALL TAF SITES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS AS THE
LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z SATURDAY. IN FACT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
P6SM SKC OR JUST SCT CLOUDS FRIDAY EVENING.

A NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO NW AT ALL
THE TAF SITES EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE
DAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 240824
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
424 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...ONE MORE FAIRLY SOLID BATCH OF RAIN HAS DEVELOPED
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AFFECTING THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND BERKSHIRES EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF RAIN APPEARS
TO HAVE LOST ITS CONNECTION TO UPSTREAM MOISTURE...AS IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. SO
THIS RAIN SHOULD TEND TO BREAK UP AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. SO WILL HOLD ON TO HIGHER POPS FOR THIS AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH JUST SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
WEST. WILL DECREASE POPS CONSIDERABLY BY AFTERNOON...WITH LACK OF
ANY DISCERNIBLE FORCING LEFT.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY AS WE
WILL STILL BE IN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME MUCH OF THE DAY
DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. EVEN WITH A RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY
RELATIVE TO NORMAL...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH A WARMING TREND. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND
40. HIGHS MONDAY GENERALLY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 35 TO 45.
HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE REGION AND PRODUCE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY
WITH FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS) THROUGH NOONTIME
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AT KALB/KPSF
DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT KPOU...
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. BETWEEN
14Z AND 18Z...ALL TAF SITES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS AS THE
LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z SATURDAY. IN FACT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
P6SM SKC OR JUST SCT CLOUDS FRIDAY EVENING.

A NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO NW AT ALL
THE TAF SITES EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE
DAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV











000
FXUS61 KALY 240804
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
404 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...ONE MORE FAIRLY SOLID BATCH OF RAIN HAS DEVELOPED
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AFFECTING THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND BERKSHIRES EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF RAIN APPEARS
TO HAVE LOST ITS CONNECTION TO UPSTREAM MOISTURE...AS IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. SO
THIS RAIN SHOULD TEND TO BREAK UP AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. SO WILL HOLD ON TO HIGHER POPS FOR THIS AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH JUST SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
WEST. WILL DECREASE POPS CONSIDERABLY BY AFTERNOON...WITH LACK OF
ANY DISCERNIBLE FORCING LEFT.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY AS WE
WILL STILL BE IN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME MUCH OF THE DAY
DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. EVEN WITH A RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY
RELATIVE TO NORMAL...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER/DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING
SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF MAINLY RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW SNOW
FLAKES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING
MONDAY...THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL HAPPEN ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL TURN MILDER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SPAWN ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS FRONT WILL LAY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR IT STALLS OUT...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
SHOWERS WILL AT LEAST SKIM OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...OR
PERHAPS ALL OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...ONLY ASSIGNED SLIGHT POPS
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOWER 60S
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...WARMING TO THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COOLING BACK DOWN TO MAINLY THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS) THROUGH NOONTIME
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AT KALB/KPSF
DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT KPOU...
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. BETWEEN
14Z AND 18Z...ALL TAF SITES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS AS THE
LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z SATURDAY. IN FACT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
P6SM SKC OR JUST SCT CLOUDS FRIDAY EVENING.

A NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO NW AT ALL
THE TAF SITES EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE
DAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 240804
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
404 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...ONE MORE FAIRLY SOLID BATCH OF RAIN HAS DEVELOPED
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AFFECTING THE TACONICS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND BERKSHIRES EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF RAIN APPEARS
TO HAVE LOST ITS CONNECTION TO UPSTREAM MOISTURE...AS IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. SO
THIS RAIN SHOULD TEND TO BREAK UP AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. SO WILL HOLD ON TO HIGHER POPS FOR THIS AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH JUST SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
WEST. WILL DECREASE POPS CONSIDERABLY BY AFTERNOON...WITH LACK OF
ANY DISCERNIBLE FORCING LEFT.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY AS WE
WILL STILL BE IN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME MUCH OF THE DAY
DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. EVEN WITH A RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY
RELATIVE TO NORMAL...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER/DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING
SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF MAINLY RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW SNOW
FLAKES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING
MONDAY...THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL HAPPEN ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL TURN MILDER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SPAWN ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS FRONT WILL LAY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR IT STALLS OUT...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
SHOWERS WILL AT LEAST SKIM OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...OR
PERHAPS ALL OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...ONLY ASSIGNED SLIGHT POPS
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOWER 60S
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...WARMING TO THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COOLING BACK DOWN TO MAINLY THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS) THROUGH NOONTIME
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AT KALB/KPSF
DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT KPOU...
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. BETWEEN
14Z AND 18Z...ALL TAF SITES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS AS THE
LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z SATURDAY. IN FACT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
P6SM SKC OR JUST SCT CLOUDS FRIDAY EVENING.

A NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO NW AT ALL
THE TAF SITES EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE
DAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST.
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 240748
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
348 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION
TODAY WITH MORNING SHOWERS OR PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TAPERING OFF
AS THE DAY WEARS ON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ARRIVES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST IN DECENT SHAPE AS WE PROGRESS
INTO YOUR FRIDAY. OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
BENCHMARK EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PULL SLOWLY AWAY
FROM OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT...PERSISTENT
MOIST...EAST/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY ABATE AS DYNAMICAL
SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION WANES OVER TIME. HIGHEST POPS GENERALLY
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL/NRN VT THIS MORNING WHERE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS TO THEN TREND MAINLY DRY IN MOST
AREAS BY EARLY EVENING. HIGHS TO CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE COOL
SIDE...GENERALLY FROM 45 TO 51 FROM THE DACKS EASTWARD INTO
VERMONT AND SLIGHTLY MILDER (50S) IN THE SLV WHERE SOME PARTIAL
LATE DAY SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...VARIABLE CLOUDS THEN GRADUALLY TREND
PTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SKIRTS ACROSS THE
AREA. ADVECTIVE PROCESSES NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND WITH AT LEAST
SOME LINGERING/PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND NEAR SEASONAL LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING RATHER
ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DROPPING ESE INTO OUR REGION WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. ENERGY WILL ARRIVE IN TWO BUNDLES...THE
FIRST OCCURRING BY SATURDAY EVENING AND THE SECOND DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY. LATEST NWP TRENDS SUGGEST BETTER DYNAMICAL
SUPPORT FOR PCPN TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY WHERE IVE OFFERED A DECENT SHOT OF SHOWERS
(50-70%). QPF NOT ALL THAT HEAVY GIVEN CONTINENTAL SOURCE REGION OF
THE FEATURE...BUT A GOOD BET THAT MANY AREAS WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS.
THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS MUCH OF THE
DAY WILL BE DRY OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND WHERE 925 MB THERMAL
PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. BY SUNDAY...ARRIVAL OF
CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL HERALD SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS (46 TO 54). AS
COLDER AIR ARRIVES ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...PCPN WILL
LIKELY TREND TO SNOW ABOVE 3000 FT WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAYS END.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY SUPPORTING SOME
LINGERING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THOUGH MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL-NORTHEAST VERMONT.
TEMPS WILL RUN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWS SUN/MON
NIGHTS IN THE 30S AND 40S...AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S AND 50S.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES INCREASES SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
1000-500MB THICKNESSES RISING TO AROUND 560DM TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
850MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR +10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW
SHIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EAST OF JAMES BAY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...A THERMALLY STRONG BUT MOISTURE
LACKING COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH FROPA TIMING WHICH IS A BIT
FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. BASED ON CURRENT PROGS...COLD FRONT WOULD
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT QPPF AMOUNTS AND
TEMPS FALLING SHARPLY THROUGH THE DAY UNDER STRONG CAA.

THEREAFTER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT. THIS WILL OFFER A GENERALLY DRY
FORECAST WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...IFR TO LIFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOISTURE FEED OFF THE GULF OF MAINE CONTINUES
TO STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTION WILL BE KMSS WHERE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE TRYING TO SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME MVFR
VSBY LIKELY THROUGH 12Z FROM KPBG EASTWARD. KSLK/KMSS LIKELY
REMAIN RAIN FREE...THOUGH SOME ON/OFF P6SM DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 14Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
A SHARP IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS MID-AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS SCATTER
OUT REVEALING MID/HIGH VFR DECK. ALL SITES ARE VFR AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SATURDAY - 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN
VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD
FRONT BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 240552
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
155 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS
WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 124 AM EDT...NOTICING AN AREA OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS
EXTENDING ALL THE WAY FROM MAINE INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW
YORK...AND PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD. THIS SIGNIFIES ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LARGE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD. SO WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST
LIKELY VALUES FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT THOUGH.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MOVE MUCH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...ONLY
COOLING A FEW MORE DEGREES DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...SHOWERS AND A PERSISTENT NORTHERLY BREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COASTAL STORM WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE DIGGING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES KICKS IT
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
A SHOWER OR TWO...ESP ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS. CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY START TO BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY FROM
WEST TO EAST...SO ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE CLOUDY...SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE BY EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKS AND LESS RAIN...WITH LOW
50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
START TO APPROACH THE AREA FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE AND WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED.
STILL...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A RAIN SHOWER...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA...BETWEEN SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT. TEMPS LOOK
WARMER AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS ON SAT NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
40S...WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER/DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING
SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF MAINLY RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW SNOW
FLAKES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING
MONDAY...THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL HAPPEN ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL TURN MILDER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SPAWN ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS FRONT WILL LAY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR IT STALLS OUT...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
SHOWERS WILL AT LEAST SKIM OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...OR
PERHAPS ALL OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...ONLY ASSIGNED SLIGHT POPS
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOWER 60S
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...WARMING TO THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COOLING BACK DOWN TO MAINLY THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS) THROUGH NOONTIME
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AT KALB/KPSF
DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT KPOU...
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. BETWEEN
14Z AND 18Z...ALL TAF SITES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS AS THE
LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z SATURDAY. IN FACT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
P6SM SKC OR JUST SCT CLOUDS FRIDAY EVENING.

A NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO NW AT ALL
THE TAF SITES EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE
DAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:  NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG
WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 50
TO 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ESTIMATED 1-3+ INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM THE HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN CATSKILLS EASTWARD...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. UNDER AN INCH OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS.

THERE HAS BEEN SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS THE
WILLIAMS AND SAXTONS RIVER IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE HOUSATONIC
RIVER IN MASSACHUSETTS AND THE HOOSIC RIVER IN EASTERN NEW YORK. THE
GOOD NEWS...ALL THIS RIVERS HAVE APPEARED TO HAVE CRESTED...BELOW
FLOOD STAGE. WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...THESE TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE.

AS A COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...ANY STEADY RAINFALL
WILL TAPER TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MOST OF THE
LINGERING RAINFALL APPEARS LIGHT...AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT RIVER LEVELS
HAVE REMAINED WITHIN THEIR BANKS...AND NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV











000
FXUS61 KALY 240524
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
124 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS
WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 124 AM EDT...NOTICING AN AREA OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS
EXTENDING ALL THE WAY FROM MAINE INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW
YORK...AND PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD. THIS SIGNIFIES ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LARGE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD. SO WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST
LIKELY VALUES FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY
EASTWARD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT THOUGH.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MOVE MUCH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...ONLY
COOLING A FEW MORE DEGREES DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...SHOWERS AND A PERSISTENT NORTHERLY BREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COASTAL STORM WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE DIGGING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES KICKS IT
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
A SHOWER OR TWO...ESP ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS. CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY START TO BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY FROM
WEST TO EAST...SO ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE CLOUDY...SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE BY EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKS AND LESS RAIN...WITH LOW
50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
START TO APPROACH THE AREA FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE AND WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED.
STILL...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A RAIN SHOWER...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA...BETWEEN SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT. TEMPS LOOK
WARMER AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS ON SAT NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
40S...WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER/DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING
SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF MAINLY RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW SNOW
FLAKES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING
MONDAY...THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL HAPPEN ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL TURN MILDER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SPAWN ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS FRONT WILL LAY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR IT STALLS OUT...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
SHOWERS WILL AT LEAST SKIM OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...OR
PERHAPS ALL OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...ONLY ASSIGNED SLIGHT POPS
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOWER 60S
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...WARMING TO THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COOLING BACK DOWN TO MAINLY THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS). HOWEVER...IT NOW
APPEARS KPSF MIGHT BE DOWN TO THE COUNT THROUGH TONIGHT (IFR).
ELSEWHERE IT LOOKS AS IF ANY IFR CIGS WILL BE VERY BRIEF. KPOU
MIGHT ACTUALLY REMAIN VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT ON FRIDAY...BACK INTO THE VFR RANGE AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT TAKE AWHILE.

A NORTH WIND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN NW AT ALL THE TAF SITES LATER
OVERNIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS...BUT
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20KTS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8
TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:  NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 50
TO 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ESTIMATED 1-3+ INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM THE HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN CATSKILLS EASTWARD...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. UNDER AN INCH OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS.

THERE HAS BEEN SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS THE
WILLIAMS AND SAXTONS RIVER IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE HOUSATONIC
RIVER IN MASSACHUSETTS AND THE HOOSIC RIVER IN EASTERN NEW YORK. THE
GOOD NEWS...ALL THIS RIVERS HAVE APPEARED TO HAVE CRESTED...BELOW
FLOOD STAGE. WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...THESE TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE.

AS A COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...ANY STEADY RAINFALL
WILL TAPER TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MOST OF THE
LINGERING RAINFALL APPEARS LIGHT...AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT RIVER LEVELS
HAVE REMAINED WITHIN THEIR BANKS...AND NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 240520
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
120 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOGGY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH SATURDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH SOME SUN, A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THAT WILL LINGER ON
SUNDAY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 750 PM EDT THURSDAY...QUASI-STATIONARY CUTOFF LOW SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD WILL MAINTAIN DEEP MOIST FETCH ACROSS ME/NH AND INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
SEVERAL BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WHICH WILL PIVOT WESTWARD
ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NY WITHIN BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
WHILE IT WON/T BE RAINING THE ENTIRE NIGHT...PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
COMBINE WITH LOW OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG
EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS. TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE
OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S. IN
FACT...THE TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON TODAY ONLY VARIED 3 DEGREES
SINCE MIDNIGHT...FROM 44-47F. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH
AT 10-15 MPH. WILL SEE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS WITH CHANNELED
FLOW IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN WITH WINDS NORTH AT 15-25 KNOTS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN HIGHEST ACROSS WINDSOR COUNTY
IN SERN VT WITH TOTALS RANGING FROM 1.2-1.4". TOTALS STEADILY DROP
OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER
0.53" AT MPV AND 0.37" AT BTV. AMOUNTS ACROSS NRN NY THUS FAR HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN LESS THAN 0.40". AN ELABORATED UPON IN THE HYDRO
SECTION BELOW...FLOODING CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING, THE LOW WILL
BE NEARING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE REGION WILL BE ON THE
WESTERN FRINGES OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECT SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TO SLOWLY
FADE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER WITH LOTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, THE CLEARING WILL LIKELY
BE PAINFULLY SLOW, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN VERMONT. GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO BE WANTING TO CLEAR MUCH OF THE AREA OUT A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY,
AND AS A RESULT IT`S TEMPERATURES ARE PROBABLY A TOUCH TOO HIGH.
WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN AREAS -- ANOTHER DAY GENERALLY IN
THE 40S, HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK SHOULD
REACH INTO THE 50S (WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR).

FRIDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING DRY, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL STILL BE HANGING
TOUGH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST VERMONT. A LITTLE BIT
OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS UP A LITTLE (5MPH OR SO),
AND THIS WILL KEEP US FROM SEEING OUR BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS FOR THOSE AREAS THAT DO CLEAR OUT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
GUIDANCE INDICATED LOW 30S COME SATURDAY MORNING, BUT WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS, I THOUGHT MID 30S WAS MORE APPROPRIATE.

SATURDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH MANY OF US SEEING SOME SUNSHINE.
HOWEVER A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WILL BE
APPROACHING BY LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL TURN FROM
NORTHWEST/WEST TO SOUTHERLY BY LATE IN THE DAY AS CLOUDS SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST. BY AFTERNOON WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
COME INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK, SPREADING INTO VERMONT BY SATURDAY
EVENING. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES OF 8-10C AND A LITTLE BIT OF SUN,
WE SHOULD EASILY BE NEAR NORMAL HIGHS -- IF NOT EVEN A LITTLE
ABOVE. SINCE THE SYSTEM WON`T HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH,
EVEN THOUGH I DO HAVE POPS IN THE 50-70% RANGE LATE SATURDAY
EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ACTUAL RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE
NOTHING MORE THAN 1/4".

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EDT THURSDAY...COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...SO EXPECTING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. EXPECTING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. ON WEDNESDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. WILL KEEP IN SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...IFR TO LIFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOISTURE FEED OFF THE GULF OF MAINE CONTINUES
TO STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA. EXCEPTION WILL BE KMSS WHERE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE TRYING TO SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME MVFR
VSBY LIKELY THROUGH 12Z FROM KPBG EASTWARD. KSLK/KMSS LIKELY
REMAIN RAIN FREE...THOUGH SOME ON/OFF P6SM DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 14Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
A SHARP IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS MID-AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS SCATTER
OUT REVEALING MID/HIGH VFR DECK. ALL SITES ARE VFR AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY - 18Z SATURDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SATURDAY - 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN
VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD
FRONT BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE NOT BEEN OVERLY
EXCESSIVE THUS FAR (0.5"-1.25" SINCE YESTERDAY IN THE WETTEST
LOCATIONS). DESPITE ANOTHER 0.3-0.7" EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS, RIVERS REMAIN FAR FROM BANKFUL AND WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY HYDRO RELATED ISSUES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
OVERNIGHT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN THANKS TO CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS. SOME GUSTS DURING THURSDAY WERE AROUND 30 KNOTS
IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE, CLOSER TO DIAMOND ISLAND,
AND THESE STRONGER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE WIND GETS
FUNNELED THROUGH THE NARROWING VALLEY ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
LAKE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THE PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
CREATING CHOPPY WAVE CONDITIONS. THESE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...NASH
MARINE...NASH




000
FXUS61 KALY 240243
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1040 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS
WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...RADARS STILL FOLLOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
THE OVERALL TREND OF THESE SHOWERS DIMINISHING. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP
INDICATED A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT CONTINUED WORKING INTO THE REGION
WHICH WAS SIGN THAT THE STORM HAS BEGUN TO "DECAY" (FILL) AS IT
MOVED TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD.

THE LOW WILL REACH THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINED SATURATED BUT WITH
TIME...WILL SLOWLY DRY OUT ON FRIDAY.

WITH THE CANOPY OF CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH AT ALL
OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S...MID 40S LOCALLY IN
THE CAPITAL REGION.

NOT MUCH TO UPDATE OVERNIGHT...JUST TOUCHED UP THE HOURLY GRIDS AND
POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COASTAL STORM WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE DIGGING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES KICKS IT
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
A SHOWER OR TWO...ESP ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS. CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY START TO BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY FROM
WEST TO EAST...SO ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE CLOUDY...SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE BY EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKS AND LESS RAIN...WITH LOW
50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
START TO APPROACH THE AREA FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE AND WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED.
STILL...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A RAIN SHOWER...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA...BETWEEN SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT. TEMPS LOOK
WARMER AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS ON SAT NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
40S...WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER/DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING
SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF MAINLY RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW SNOW
FLAKES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING
MONDAY...THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL HAPPEN ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL TURN MILDER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SPAWN ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS FRONT WILL LAY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR IT STALLS OUT...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
SHOWERS WILL AT LEAST SKIM OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...OR
PERHAPS ALL OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...ONLY ASSIGNED SLIGHT POPS
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOWER 60S
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...WARMING TO THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COOLING BACK DOWN TO MAINLY THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS). HOWEVER...IT NOW
APPEARS KPSF MIGHT BE DOWN TO THE COUNT THROUGH TONIGHT (IFR).
ELSEWHERE IT LOOKS AS IF ANY IFR CIGS WILL BE VERY BRIEF. KPOU
MIGHT ACTUALLY REMAIN VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT ON FRIDAY...BACK INTO THE VFR RANGE AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT TAKE AWHILE.

A NORTH WIND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN NW AT ALL THE TAF SITES LATER
OVERNIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS...BUT
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20KTS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8
TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:  NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 50
TO 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ESTIMATED 1-3+ INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM THE HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN CATSKILLS EASTWARD...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. UNDER AN INCH OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS.

THERE HAS BEEN SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS THE
WILLIAMS AND SAXTONS RIVER IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE HOUSATONIC
RIVER IN MASSACHUSETTS AND THE HOOSIC RIVER IN EASTERN NEW YORK. THE
GOOD NEWS...ALL THIS RIVERS HAVE APPEARED TO HAVE CRESTED...BELOW
FLOOD STAGE. WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...THESE TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE.

AS A COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...ANY STEADY RAINFALL
WILL TAPER TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MOST OF THE
LINGERING RAINFALL APPEARS LIGHT...AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT RIVER LEVELS
HAVE REMAINED WITHIN THEIR BANKS...AND NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KALY 240243
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1040 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS
WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...RADARS STILL FOLLOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
THE OVERALL TREND OF THESE SHOWERS DIMINISHING. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP
INDICATED A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT CONTINUED WORKING INTO THE REGION
WHICH WAS SIGN THAT THE STORM HAS BEGUN TO "DECAY" (FILL) AS IT
MOVED TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD.

THE LOW WILL REACH THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINED SATURATED BUT WITH
TIME...WILL SLOWLY DRY OUT ON FRIDAY.

WITH THE CANOPY OF CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH AT ALL
OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S...MID 40S LOCALLY IN
THE CAPITAL REGION.

NOT MUCH TO UPDATE OVERNIGHT...JUST TOUCHED UP THE HOURLY GRIDS AND
POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COASTAL STORM WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE DIGGING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES KICKS IT
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
A SHOWER OR TWO...ESP ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS. CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY START TO BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY FROM
WEST TO EAST...SO ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE CLOUDY...SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE BY EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKS AND LESS RAIN...WITH LOW
50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
START TO APPROACH THE AREA FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE AND WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED.
STILL...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A RAIN SHOWER...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA...BETWEEN SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT. TEMPS LOOK
WARMER AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS ON SAT NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
40S...WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER/DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING
SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF MAINLY RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW SNOW
FLAKES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING
MONDAY...THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL HAPPEN ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL TURN MILDER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SPAWN ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS FRONT WILL LAY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR IT STALLS OUT...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
SHOWERS WILL AT LEAST SKIM OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...OR
PERHAPS ALL OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...ONLY ASSIGNED SLIGHT POPS
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOWER 60S
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...WARMING TO THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COOLING BACK DOWN TO MAINLY THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS). HOWEVER...IT NOW
APPEARS KPSF MIGHT BE DOWN TO THE COUNT THROUGH TONIGHT (IFR).
ELSEWHERE IT LOOKS AS IF ANY IFR CIGS WILL BE VERY BRIEF. KPOU
MIGHT ACTUALLY REMAIN VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

CIGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT ON FRIDAY...BACK INTO THE VFR RANGE AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT TAKE AWHILE.

A NORTH WIND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN NW AT ALL THE TAF SITES LATER
OVERNIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS...BUT
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20KTS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8
TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:  NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 50
TO 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ESTIMATED 1-3+ INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM THE HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN CATSKILLS EASTWARD...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. UNDER AN INCH OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS.

THERE HAS BEEN SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS THE
WILLIAMS AND SAXTONS RIVER IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE HOUSATONIC
RIVER IN MASSACHUSETTS AND THE HOOSIC RIVER IN EASTERN NEW YORK. THE
GOOD NEWS...ALL THIS RIVERS HAVE APPEARED TO HAVE CRESTED...BELOW
FLOOD STAGE. WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...THESE TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE.

AS A COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...ANY STEADY RAINFALL
WILL TAPER TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MOST OF THE
LINGERING RAINFALL APPEARS LIGHT...AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT RIVER LEVELS
HAVE REMAINED WITHIN THEIR BANKS...AND NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KALY 240010
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
800 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE REGION...STEADY RAINFALL WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS FOR
TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATE TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT...STILL FOLLOWING A FEW PATCHES OF RAIN ON
RADAR...AS WELL AS LIKELY PATCHY DRIZZLE. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP
INDICATE A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WAS WORKING INTO THE REGION WHICH WAS
SIGN THAT THE STORM HAS BEGUN TO "DECAY" (FILL). INDEED THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE...OF THE LOW...TO THE SOUTH OF CAPE COD...LOOKS TO HAVE
RISEN FROM 997 TO 998 MB IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

THE BRUNT OF THE RAINFALL IS OVER. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINED QUITE SATURATED SO FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH
AND EASTWARD SO THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
AROUND FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.

FURTHER SOUTH...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DRIED OUT A LITTLE...SO ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. INTERESTING...THE WINDS HAVE PICKED UP
AGAIN DOWN TOWARD POUGHKEEPSIE...AS THERE IS BETTER MOMENTUM
TRANSFER OF WIND THROUGH THE COLUMN...SINCE IT IS SOMEWHAT DRIER.
THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS...BUT THEY ARE GENERALLY A LITTLE
HIGHER AND MORE OF TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION DIFFERENCE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY DRY OUT OVERNIGHT BUT THE CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN AND CERTAINLY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RESIDUAL SHOWERS (MAINLY
NORTH AND EAST OF ALBANY AT THAT TIME).

DECIDED TO RAISE A FEW MINIMUMS OVERNIGHT DUE THE FACT THE IF
ANYTHING...COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS BEEN PLACED BY NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION AND IN SOME CASES...THE 8PM TEMPERATURE OBSERVATIONS WERE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE 700 PM ONES.  WITH THE CANOPY OF
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH AT ALL OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COASTAL STORM WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE DIGGING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES KICKS IT
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
A SHOWER OR TWO...ESP ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS. CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY START TO BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY FROM
WEST TO EAST...SO ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE CLOUDY...SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE BY EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKS AND LESS RAIN...WITH LOW
50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
START TO APPROACH THE AREA FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE AND WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED.
STILL...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A RAIN SHOWER...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA...BETWEEN SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT. TEMPS LOOK
WARMER AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS ON SAT NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
40S...WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER/DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING
SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF MAINLY RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW SNOW
FLAKES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING
MONDAY...THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL HAPPEN ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL TURN MILDER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SPAWN ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS FRONT WILL LAY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR IT STALLS OUT...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
SHOWERS WILL AT LEAST SKIM OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...OR
PERHAPS ALL OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...ONLY ASSIGNED SLIGHT POPS
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOWER 60S
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...WARMING TO THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COOLING BACK DOWN TO MAINLY THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS). HOWEVER...IT
LOOKS AS IF CIGS WILL OCCASIONAL DIP TO IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING
AT KPSF DUE TO AN UPSLOPE WIND AND KALB DUE TO MOHAWK HUDSON
CONVERGENCE.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR CIGS GFL AND KPOU BUT AT THIS POINT...WE
FELT THE THREAT WAS TOO LOW (AND BRIEF) NOT NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME. IN FACT...KPOU WAS ACTUALLY MVFR DUE TO THE GUSTY
WINDS.

CONDITIONS MIGHT NOT BOUNCE BACK TO VFR AT THE OTHER TAF
SITES...UNTIL WELL PAST THE MORNING PEAK FRIDAY.

A NORTH WIND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN NW AT ALL THE TAF SITES LATER
OVERNIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS...BUT
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KPOU AND KPSF.


SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8
TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:  NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 50
TO 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ESTIMATED 1-3+ INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM THE HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN CATSKILLS EASTWARD...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. UNDER AN INCH OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS.

THERE HAS BEEN SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS THE
WILLIAMS AND SAXTONS RIVER IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE HOUSATONIC
RIVER IN MASSACHUSETTS AND THE HOOSIC RIVER IN EASTERN NEW YORK. THE
GOOD NEWS...ALL THIS RIVERS HAVE APPEARED TO HAVE CRESTED...BELOW
FLOOD STAGE. WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...THESE TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE.

AS A COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...ANY STEADY RAINFALL
WILL TAPER TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MOST OF THE
LINGERING RAINFALL APPEARS LIGHT...AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT RIVER LEVELS
HAVE REMAINED WITHIN THEIR BANKS...AND NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KBTV 240007
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
807 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOGGY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH SATURDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH SOME SUN, A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THAT WILL LINGER ON
SUNDAY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 750 PM EDT THURSDAY...QUASI-STATIONARY CUTOFF LOW SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD WILL MAINTAIN DEEP MOIST FETCH ACROSS ME/NH AND INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
SEVERAL BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WHICH WILL PIVOT WESTWARD
ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NY WITHIN BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
WHILE IT WON/T BE RAINING THE ENTIRE NIGHT...PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
COMBINE WITH LOW OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG
EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS. TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE
OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S. IN
FACT...THE TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON TODAY ONLY VARIED 3 DEGREES
SINCE MIDNIGHT...FROM 44-47F. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH
AT 10-15 MPH. WILL SEE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS WITH CHANNELED
FLOW IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN WITH WINDS NORTH AT 15-25 KNOTS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN HIGHEST ACROSS WINDSOR COUNTY
IN SERN VT WITH TOTALS RANGING FROM 1.2-1.4". TOTALS STEADILY DROP
OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER
0.53" AT MPV AND 0.37" AT BTV. AMOUNTS ACROSS NRN NY THUS FAR HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN LESS THAN 0.40". AN ELABORATED UPON IN THE HYDRO
SECTION BELOW...FLOODING CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING, THE LOW WILL
BE NEARING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE REGION WILL BE ON THE
WESTERN FRINGES OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECT SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TO SLOWLY
FADE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER WITH LOTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, THE CLEARING WILL LIKELY
BE PAINFULLY SLOW, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN VERMONT. GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO BE WANTING TO CLEAR MUCH OF THE AREA OUT A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY,
AND AS A RESULT IT`S TEMPERATURES ARE PROBABLY A TOUCH TOO HIGH.
WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN AREAS -- ANOTHER DAY GENERALLY IN
THE 40S, HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK SHOULD
REACH INTO THE 50S (WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR).

FRIDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING DRY, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL STILL BE HANGING
TOUGH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST VERMONT. A LITTLE BIT
OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS UP A LITTLE (5MPH OR SO),
AND THIS WILL KEEP US FROM SEEING OUR BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS FOR THOSE AREAS THAT DO CLEAR OUT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
GUIDANCE INDICATED LOW 30S COME SATURDAY MORNING, BUT WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS, I THOUGHT MID 30S WAS MORE APPROPRIATE.

SATURDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH MANY OF US SEEING SOME SUNSHINE.
HOWEVER A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WILL BE
APPROACHING BY LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL TURN FROM
NORTHWEST/WEST TO SOUTHERLY BY LATE IN THE DAY AS CLOUDS SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST. BY AFTERNOON WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
COME INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK, SPREADING INTO VERMONT BY SATURDAY
EVENING. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES OF 8-10C AND A LITTLE BIT OF SUN,
WE SHOULD EASILY BE NEAR NORMAL HIGHS -- IF NOT EVEN A LITTLE
ABOVE. SINCE THE SYSTEM WON`T HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH,
EVEN THOUGH I DO HAVE POPS IN THE 50-70% RANGE LATE SATURDAY
EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ACTUAL RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE
NOTHING MORE THAN 1/4".

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EDT THURSDAY...COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...SO EXPECTING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. EXPECTING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. ON WEDNESDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. WILL KEEP IN SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR TO LIFR CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS MOISTURE FEED OFF THE GULF OF MAINE CONTINUES TO STREAM
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. OFF AND ON PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE AS WELL. TAF SITES RELATIVELY RAIN FREE AT FORECAST TIME
2330Z...AND TRIED TO TIME ARRIVAL OF NEXT RAIN BAND ARRIVING FROM
THE EAST AROUND 01-02Z. NORTHERLY SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILING TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...MID MORNING IN
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND CLOSER TO 00Z SATURDAY IN EASTERN
VERMONT. EXPECT A SHARP IMPROVEMENT AS LOW CLOUDS SCATTER OUT
REVEALING MID-HIGH LEVEL VFR CLOUD DECK.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY-18Z SATURDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

18Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

00Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE NOT BEEN OVERLY
EXCESSIVE THUS FAR (0.5"-1.25" SINCE YESTERDAY IN THE WETTEST
LOCATIONS). DESPITE ANOTHER 0.3-0.7" EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS, RIVERS REMAIN FAR FROM BANKFUL AND WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY HYDRO RELATED ISSUES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
OVERNIGHT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN THANKS TO CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS. SOME GUSTS DURING THURSDAY WERE AROUND 30 KNOTS
IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE, CLOSER TO DIAMOND ISLAND,
AND THESE STRONGER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE WIND GETS
FUNNELED THROUGH THE NARROWING VALLEY ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
LAKE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THE PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
CREATING CHOPPY WAVE CONDITIONS. THESE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...HANSON
HYDROLOGY...NASH
MARINE...NASH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 232346
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
746 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOGGY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH SATURDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH SOME SUN, A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THAT WILL LINGER ON
SUNDAY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...FOR BETTER OR WORSE, WE FINALLY DID
GET OUR RAINY DAY. A QUICK LOOK AT RAINFALL REPORTS OVER THE LAST
12 HOURS INDICATE THAT MANY AREAS HAVE SEEN 0.3" TO 0.7", WITH A
FEW SPOT TOTALS APPROACHING 1". THUS FAR THE HIGHEST TOTALS HAVE
BEEN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT WHERE SOME
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT HAS HELPED.

FIRST BATCH OF RAIN IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK, WITH A
LITTLE BREAK DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN VERMONT. RADAR SHOWS THAT
THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN IS
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MAINE INTO NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS
BATCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF VERMONT AND INTO NORTHERN NY DURING THE EVENING. HAVE THUS
MAINTAINED THE BASICALLY 100% POPS FOR THESE AREAS AT LEAST UNTIL
MID-EVENING. LOWER CHANCES (ON THE ORDER OF 60-80% ARE PAINTED IN
FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT). GUIDANCE ALL INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF NANTUCKET TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
(ALBEIT SLOWLY) OVERNIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL TURN FROM EASTERLY TO NORTHERLY. AS WE LOSE THAT VERY MOIST
TAP OFF THE ATLANTIC, THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DECREASE, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH FROM WHERE THEY WERE
TODAY, SO LOTS OF LOWER 40S FOR US.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING, THE LOW WILL
BE NEARING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE REGION WILL BE ON THE
WESTERN FRINGES OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECT SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TO SLOWLY
FADE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER WITH LOTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, THE CLEARING WILL LIKELY
BE PAINFULLY SLOW, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN VERMONT. GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO BE WANTING TO CLEAR MUCH OF THE AREA OUT A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY,
AND AS A RESULT IT`S TEMPERATURES ARE PROBABLY A TOUCH TOO HIGH.
WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN AREAS -- ANOTHER DAY GENERALLY IN
THE 40S, HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK SHOULD
REACH INTO THE 50S (WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR).

FRIDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING DRY, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL STILL BE HANGING
TOUGH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST VERMONT. A LITTLE BIT
OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS UP A LITTLE (5MPH OR SO),
AND THIS WILL KEEP US FROM SEEING OUR BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS FOR THOSE AREAS THAT DO CLEAR OUT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
GUIDANCE INDICATED LOW 30S COME SATURDAY MORNING, BUT WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS, I THOUGHT MID 30S WAS MORE APPROPRIATE.

SATURDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH MANY OF US SEEING SOME SUNSHINE.
HOWEVER A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WILL BE
APPROACHING BY LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL TURN FROM
NORTHWEST/WEST TO SOUTHERLY BY LATE IN THE DAY AS CLOUDS SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST. BY AFTERNOON WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
COME INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK, SPREADING INTO VERMONT BY SATURDAY
EVENING. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES OF 8-10C AND A LITTLE BIT OF SUN,
WE SHOULD EASILY BE NEAR NORMAL HIGHS -- IF NOT EVEN A LITTLE
ABOVE. SINCE THE SYSTEM WON`T HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH,
EVEN THOUGH I DO HAVE POPS IN THE 50-70% RANGE LATE SATURDAY
EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ACTUAL RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE
NOTHING MORE THAN 1/4".

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EDT THURSDAY...COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...SO EXPECTING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. EXPECTING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REAMINS OVER THE REGION. ON WEDNESDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. WILL KEEP IN SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...IFR TO LIFR CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS MOISTURE FEED OFF THE GULF OF MAINE CONTINUES TO STREAM
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. OFF AND ON PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE AS WELL. TAF SITES RELATIVELY RAIN FREE AT FORECAST TIME
2330Z...AND TRIED TO TIME ARRIVAL OF NEXT RAIN BAND ARRIVING FROM
THE EAST AROUND 01-02Z. NORTHERLY SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILING TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...MID MORNING IN
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND CLOSER TO 00Z SATURDAY IN EASTERN
VERMONT. EXPECT A SHARP IMPROVEMENT AS LOW CLOUDS SCATTER OUT
REVEALING MID-HIGH LEVEL VFR CLOUD DECK.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY-18Z SATURDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

18Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

00Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE NOT BEEN OVERLY
EXCESSIVE THUS FAR (0.5"-1.25" SINCE YESTERDAY IN THE WETTEST
LOCATIONS). DESPITE ANOTHER 0.3-0.7" EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS, RIVERS REMAIN FAR FROM BANKFUL AND WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY HYDRO RELATED ISSUES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
OVERNIGHT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN THANKS TO CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS. SOME GUSTS DURING THURSDAY WERE AROUND 30 KNOTS
IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE, CLOSER TO DIAMOND ISLAND,
AND THESE STRONGER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE WIND GETS
FUNNELED THROUGH THE NARROWING VALLEY ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
LAKE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THE PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
CREATING CHOPPY WAVE CONDITIONS. THESE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...HANSON
HYDROLOGY...NASH
MARINE...NASH




000
FXUS61 KALY 232013
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
413 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE REGION...STEADY RAINFALL WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS FOR
TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATE TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 413 PM EDT...THE SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM THAT HAS BEEN
IMPACTING OUR REGION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IS NOW SITUATED JUST
SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THIS SYSTEM IS VERTICALLY STACKED...WITH THE
CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED RIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE LOW. A
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM HAS TRANSPORTED A LONG
FETCH OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE REGION...KEEPING
PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE. THE STRONG EASTERLY FLOW IS ALLOWING
FOR A FEW SMALL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON THE DOWNSLOPING SIDE OF
THE GREEN MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE...IT IS FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
REGION...AND THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SOME STEADY RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
WITHIN THE DEFORMATION AXIS OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS STEADY RAINFALL
SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN...AS THE BEST FORCING WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS IS SEEN IN BOTH OUR
LOCAL HIRES WRF AND THE 3KM HRRR...AS WELL AS THE NAM12 AND GFS40
MODELS.

ALTHOUGH THE STEADY RAINFALL LOOKS TO END THIS EVENING...A FEW
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THANKS TO THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE.
ADDITIONAL QPF LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
CLOUDY...COOL AND DAMP WITH THE ABUNDANT LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT
TEMPS...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S. A FEW UPPER
30S ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COASTAL STORM WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE DIGGING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES KICKS IT
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
A SHOWER OR TWO...ESP ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS. CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY START TO BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY FROM
WEST TO EAST...SO ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE CLOUDY...SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE BY EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKS AND LESS RAIN...WITH LOW
50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
START TO APPROACH THE AREA FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE AND WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED.
STILL...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A RAIN SHOWER...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA...BETWEEN SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT. TEMPS LOOK
WARMER AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS ON SAT NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
40S...WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER/DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING
SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF MAINLY RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW SNOW
FLAKES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING
MONDAY...THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL HAPPEN ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL TURN MILDER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SPAWN ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS FRONT WILL LAY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR IT STALLS OUT...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
SHOWERS WILL AT LEAST SKIM OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...OR
PERHAPS ALL OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...ONLY ASSIGNED SLIGHT POPS
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOWER 60S
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...WARMING TO THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...COOLING BACK DOWN TO MAINLY THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ALTHOUGH THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN WILL SHIFT WEST OF
THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHTER
RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST WELL INTO TONIGHT. THIS...COMBINED
WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING SLIGHTLY MORE INTO THE NORTH AND
DECREASING THE AMT OF DOWNSLOPING OFF THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND
BERKSHIRES...SHOULD ALLOW FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF OCCASIONAL IFR...ESP AT
KALB AND KPSF.

MVFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z/FRI...ESP AT
KGFL/KALB AND KPOU.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8
TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:  NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO
50 TO 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AS A COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...ANY STEADY RAINFALL WILL
TAPER TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MOST OF THE
LINGERING RAINFALL APPEARS LIGHT...AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE A HALF INCH OR LESS. THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT RIVER LEVELS HAVE
REMAINED WITHIN THEIR BANKS...AND NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 232011
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
411 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOGGY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH SATURDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH SOME SUN, A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THAT WILL LINGER ON
SUNDAY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...FOR BETTER OR WORSE, WE FINALLY DID
GET OUR RAINY DAY. A QUICK LOOK AT RAINFALL REPORTS OVER THE LAST
12 HOURS INDICATE THAT MANY AREAS HAVE SEEN 0.3" TO 0.7", WITH A
FEW SPOT TOTALS APPROACHING 1". THUS FAR THE HIGHEST TOTALS HAVE
BEEN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT WHERE SOME
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT HAS HELPED.

FIRST BATCH OF RAIN IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK, WITH A
LITTLE BREAK DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN VERMONT. RADAR SHOWS THAT
THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN IS
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MAINE INTO NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS
BATCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF VERMONT AND INTO NORTHERN NY DURING THE EVENING. HAVE THUS
MAINTAINED THE BASICALLY 100% POPS FOR THESE AREAS AT LEAST UNTIL
MID-EVENING. LOWER CHANCES (ON THE ORDER OF 60-80% ARE PAINTED IN
FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT). GUIDANCE ALL INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF NANTUCKET TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
(ALBEIT SLOWLY) OVERNIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL TURN FROM EASTERLY TO NORTHERLY. AS WE LOSE THAT VERY MOIST
TAP OFF THE ATLANTIC, THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DECREASE, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH FROM WHERE THEY WERE
TODAY, SO LOTS OF LOWER 40S FOR US.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING, THE LOW WILL
BE NEARING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE REGION WILL BE ON THE
WESTERN FRINGES OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECT SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TO SLOWLY
FADE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER WITH LOTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, THE CLEARING WILL LIKELY
BE PAINFULLY SLOW, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN VERMONT. GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO BE WANTING TO CLEAR MUCH OF THE AREA OUT A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY,
AND AS A RESULT IT`S TEMPERATURES ARE PROBABLY A TOUCH TOO HIGH.
WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR EASTERN AREAS -- ANOTHER DAY GENERALLY IN
THE 40S, HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK SHOULD
REACH INTO THE 50S (WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR).

FRIDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING DRY, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL STILL BE HANGING
TOUGH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST VERMONT. A LITTLE BIT
OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS UP A LITTLE (5MPH OR SO),
AND THIS WILL KEEP US FROM SEEING OUR BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS FOR THOSE AREAS THAT DO CLEAR OUT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
GUIDANCE INDICATED LOW 30S COME SATURDAY MORNING, BUT WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS, I THOUGHT MID 30S WAS MORE APPROPRIATE.

SATURDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH MANY OF US SEEING SOME SUNSHINE.
HOWEVER A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WILL BE
APPROACHING BY LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL TURN FROM
NORTHWEST/WEST TO SOUTHERLY BY LATE IN THE DAY AS CLOUDS SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST. BY AFTERNOON WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
COME INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK, SPREADING INTO VERMONT BY SATURDAY
EVENING. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES OF 8-10C AND A LITTLE BIT OF SUN,
WE SHOULD EASILY BE NEAR NORMAL HIGHS -- IF NOT EVEN A LITTLE
ABOVE. SINCE THE SYSTEM WON`T HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH,
EVEN THOUGH I DO HAVE POPS IN THE 50-70% RANGE LATE SATURDAY
EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ACTUAL RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE
NOTHING MORE THAN 1/4".


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EDT THURSDAY...COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...SO EXPECTING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. EXPECTING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REAMINS OVER THE REGION. ON WEDNESDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. WILL KEEP IN SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF CAPE
COD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS TO THE REGION THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. NORTHERLY SURFACE WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY-00Z SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR CEILINGS AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA.

00Z SATURDAY-18Z SATURDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

18Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

00Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE NOT BEEN OVERLY
EXCESSIVE THUS FAR (0.5"-1.25" SINCE YESTERDAY IN THE WETTEST
LOCATIONS). DESPITE ANOTHER 0.3-0.7" EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS, RIVERS REMAIN FAR FROM BANKFUL AND WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY HYDRO RELATED ISSUES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
OVERNIGHT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN THANKS TO CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS. SOME GUSTS DURING THURSDAY WERE AROUND 30 KNOTS
IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE, CLOSER TO DIAMOND ISLAND,
AND THESE STRONGER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE WIND GETS
FUNNELED THROUGH THE NARROWING VALLEY ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
LAKE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THE PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
CREATING CHOPPY WAVE CONDITIONS. THESE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
HYDROLOGY...NASH
MARINE...NASH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 231936
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
336 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER
OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT THURSDAY...FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST
REFRESH, DID A FEW MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. FIRST ON
THE PRECIPITATION FRONT, RADAR SHOWING A PRETTY SOLID AREA OF RAIN
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT, AND LOOKING UPSTREAM
IT APPEARS THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
IF NOT MUCH OF THE EVENING. DID FOLLOW THE HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTS THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, WITH A
BRIEF LULL LATE EVENING, BEFORE ANOTHER SOLID BATCH OF RAIN COMES
IN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL HASN`T BEEN MUCH OUT TOWARD THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, AND STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL
ACTUALLY GET THERE WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS SHOULD EASILY AVERAGE 1/4"
ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT, IF NOT A BIT MORE. SOME MESONET IN THE
HEAVIER RAIN HAVE REPORTED UP TO 1/3" IN AN HOUR. STILL, TOTALS
WON`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MADE SOME TWEAKS ALSO TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT
TEMPERATURES (WHICH SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH IT FOR HIGHS). FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA IT WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO STAY INDOORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE
GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY
ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER
SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY
DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTIVE REGIME.

BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S
IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.

ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST
POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED
PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 336 PM EDT THURSDAY...COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...SO EXPECTING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. EXPECTING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REAMINS OVER THE REGION. ON WEDNESDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. WILL KEEP IN SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF CAPE
COD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS TO THE REGION THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. NORTHERLY SURFACE WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY-00Z SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR CEILINGS AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA.

00Z SATURDAY-18Z SATURDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

18Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

00Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS
FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE
SLV.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS
ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 231936
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
336 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER
OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT THURSDAY...FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST
REFRESH, DID A FEW MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. FIRST ON
THE PRECIPITATION FRONT, RADAR SHOWING A PRETTY SOLID AREA OF RAIN
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT, AND LOOKING UPSTREAM
IT APPEARS THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
IF NOT MUCH OF THE EVENING. DID FOLLOW THE HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTS THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, WITH A
BRIEF LULL LATE EVENING, BEFORE ANOTHER SOLID BATCH OF RAIN COMES
IN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL HASN`T BEEN MUCH OUT TOWARD THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, AND STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL
ACTUALLY GET THERE WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS SHOULD EASILY AVERAGE 1/4"
ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT, IF NOT A BIT MORE. SOME MESONET IN THE
HEAVIER RAIN HAVE REPORTED UP TO 1/3" IN AN HOUR. STILL, TOTALS
WON`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MADE SOME TWEAKS ALSO TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT
TEMPERATURES (WHICH SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH IT FOR HIGHS). FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA IT WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO STAY INDOORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE
GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY
ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER
SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY
DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTIVE REGIME.

BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S
IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.

ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST
POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED
PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 336 PM EDT THURSDAY...COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...SO EXPECTING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. EXPECTING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REAMINS OVER THE REGION. ON WEDNESDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION. WILL KEEP IN SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF CAPE
COD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS TO THE REGION THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. NORTHERLY SURFACE WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY-00Z SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR CEILINGS AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA.

00Z SATURDAY-18Z SATURDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

18Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

00Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS
FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE
SLV.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS
ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 231811
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
211 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER
OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT THURSDAY...FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST
REFRESH, DID A FEW MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. FIRST ON
THE PRECIPITATION FRONT, RADAR SHOWING A PRETTY SOLID AREA OF RAIN
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT, AND LOOKING UPSTREAM
IT APPEARS THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
IF NOT MUCH OF THE EVENING. DID FOLLOW THE HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTS THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, WITH A
BRIEF LULL LATE EVENING, BEFORE ANOTHER SOLID BATCH OF RAIN COMES
IN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL HASN`T BEEN MUCH OUT TOWARD THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, AND STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL
ACTUALLY GET THERE WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS SHOULD EASILY AVERAGE 1/4"
ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT, IF NOT A BIT MORE. SOME MESONET IN THE
HEAVIER RAIN HAVE REPORTED UP TO 1/3" IN AN HOUR. STILL, TOTALS
WON`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MADE SOME TWEAKS ALSO TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT
TEMPERATURES (WHICH SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH IT FOR HIGHS). FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA IT WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO STAY INDOORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE
GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY
ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER
SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY
DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTIVE REGIME.

BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S
IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.

ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST
POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED
PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOWING TURNING TO
THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG CAA MOVING IN POST FROPA. TEMPS AT THE
SUMMITS AREN`T INCREDIBLY COLD...SO LIKELY ONLY GOING TO SEE A
DUSTING TO MAYBE A COUPLE OF INCHES UP THERE.

WE`LL STILL BE UNDER MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK MONDAY SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TO BE AROUND AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
NICE WARMING TREND AS WE GO INTO MID-WEEK. WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WE`LL SEE TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THOUGH AT THIS TIME MODELS PREDICT THE LOW CENTER PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH WITH ONLY A WEAK RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST. DOESN`T REALLY LOOK ALL
THAT THREATENING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT STRONG
CAA BEHIND TO FRONT WILL BRING OUR TEMPS RIGHT BACK BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF CAPE
COD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS TO THE REGION THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. NORTHERLY SURFACE WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY-00Z SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR CEILINGS AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA.

00Z SATURDAY-18Z SATURDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

18Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

00Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS
FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE
SLV.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS
ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...WGH
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 231811
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
211 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER
OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT THURSDAY...FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST
REFRESH, DID A FEW MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. FIRST ON
THE PRECIPITATION FRONT, RADAR SHOWING A PRETTY SOLID AREA OF RAIN
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT, AND LOOKING UPSTREAM
IT APPEARS THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
IF NOT MUCH OF THE EVENING. DID FOLLOW THE HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTS THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, WITH A
BRIEF LULL LATE EVENING, BEFORE ANOTHER SOLID BATCH OF RAIN COMES
IN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL HASN`T BEEN MUCH OUT TOWARD THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, AND STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL
ACTUALLY GET THERE WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS SHOULD EASILY AVERAGE 1/4"
ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT, IF NOT A BIT MORE. SOME MESONET IN THE
HEAVIER RAIN HAVE REPORTED UP TO 1/3" IN AN HOUR. STILL, TOTALS
WON`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MADE SOME TWEAKS ALSO TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT
TEMPERATURES (WHICH SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH IT FOR HIGHS). FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA IT WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO STAY INDOORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE
GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY
ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER
SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY
DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTIVE REGIME.

BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S
IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.

ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST
POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED
PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOWING TURNING TO
THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG CAA MOVING IN POST FROPA. TEMPS AT THE
SUMMITS AREN`T INCREDIBLY COLD...SO LIKELY ONLY GOING TO SEE A
DUSTING TO MAYBE A COUPLE OF INCHES UP THERE.

WE`LL STILL BE UNDER MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK MONDAY SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TO BE AROUND AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
NICE WARMING TREND AS WE GO INTO MID-WEEK. WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WE`LL SEE TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THOUGH AT THIS TIME MODELS PREDICT THE LOW CENTER PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH WITH ONLY A WEAK RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST. DOESN`T REALLY LOOK ALL
THAT THREATENING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT STRONG
CAA BEHIND TO FRONT WILL BRING OUR TEMPS RIGHT BACK BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF CAPE
COD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS TO THE REGION THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. NORTHERLY SURFACE WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY-00Z SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR CEILINGS AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA.

00Z SATURDAY-18Z SATURDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

18Z SATURDAY-00Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

00Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS
FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE
SLV.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS
ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...WGH
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 231743
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
143 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER
OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT THURSDAY...FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST
REFRESH, DID A FEW MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. FIRST ON
THE PRECIPITATION FRONT, RADAR SHOWING A PRETTY SOLID AREA OF RAIN
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT, AND LOOKING UPSTREAM
IT APPEARS THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
IF NOT MUCH OF THE EVENING. DID FOLLOW THE HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTS THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, WITH A
BRIEF LULL LATE EVENING, BEFORE ANOTHER SOLID BATCH OF RAIN COMES
IN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL HASN`T BEEN MUCH OUT TOWARD THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, AND STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL
ACTUALLY GET THERE WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS SHOULD EASILY AVERAGE 1/4"
ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT, IF NOT A BIT MORE. SOME MESONET IN THE
HEAVIER RAIN HAVE REPORTED UP TO 1/3" IN AN HOUR. STILL, TOTALS
WON`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MADE SOME TWEAKS ALSO TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT
TEMPERATURES (WHICH SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH IT FOR HIGHS). FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA IT WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO STAY INDOORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE
GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY
ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER
SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY
DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTIVE REGIME.

BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S
IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.

ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST
POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED
PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOWING TURNING TO
THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG CAA MOVING IN POST FROPA. TEMPS AT THE
SUMMITS AREN`T INCREDIBLY COLD...SO LIKELY ONLY GOING TO SEE A
DUSTING TO MAYBE A COUPLE OF INCHES UP THERE.

WE`LL STILL BE UNDER MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK MONDAY SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TO BE AROUND AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
NICE WARMING TREND AS WE GO INTO MID-WEEK. WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WE`LL SEE TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THOUGH AT THIS TIME MODELS PREDICT THE LOW CENTER PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH WITH ONLY A WEAK RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST. DOESN`T REALLY LOOK ALL
THAT THREATENING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT STRONG
CAA BEHIND TO FRONT WILL BRING OUR TEMPS RIGHT BACK BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN MOVES IN MID-
MORNING WITH SOME MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE...THOUGH UPSTREAM OBS ONLY
SUPPORT VFR VSBY. EXCEPTION ON THE RAIN WILL BE KMSS WHICH WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL STILL SEE MVFR CIGS MOVE IN BY MID-
MORNING. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE NORTHERLY AT 8-12KTS THRU THE PERIOD
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR UNDER BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SAT - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS
FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE
SLV.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS
ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 231743
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
143 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER
OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT THURSDAY...FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST
REFRESH, DID A FEW MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. FIRST ON
THE PRECIPITATION FRONT, RADAR SHOWING A PRETTY SOLID AREA OF RAIN
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT, AND LOOKING UPSTREAM
IT APPEARS THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
IF NOT MUCH OF THE EVENING. DID FOLLOW THE HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTS THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, WITH A
BRIEF LULL LATE EVENING, BEFORE ANOTHER SOLID BATCH OF RAIN COMES
IN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL HASN`T BEEN MUCH OUT TOWARD THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, AND STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL
ACTUALLY GET THERE WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS SHOULD EASILY AVERAGE 1/4"
ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT, IF NOT A BIT MORE. SOME MESONET IN THE
HEAVIER RAIN HAVE REPORTED UP TO 1/3" IN AN HOUR. STILL, TOTALS
WON`T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MADE SOME TWEAKS ALSO TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT
TEMPERATURES (WHICH SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH IT FOR HIGHS). FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA IT WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO STAY INDOORS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE
GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY
ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER
SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY
DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTIVE REGIME.

BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S
IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.

ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST
POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED
PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOWING TURNING TO
THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG CAA MOVING IN POST FROPA. TEMPS AT THE
SUMMITS AREN`T INCREDIBLY COLD...SO LIKELY ONLY GOING TO SEE A
DUSTING TO MAYBE A COUPLE OF INCHES UP THERE.

WE`LL STILL BE UNDER MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK MONDAY SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TO BE AROUND AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
NICE WARMING TREND AS WE GO INTO MID-WEEK. WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WE`LL SEE TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THOUGH AT THIS TIME MODELS PREDICT THE LOW CENTER PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH WITH ONLY A WEAK RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST. DOESN`T REALLY LOOK ALL
THAT THREATENING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT STRONG
CAA BEHIND TO FRONT WILL BRING OUR TEMPS RIGHT BACK BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN MOVES IN MID-
MORNING WITH SOME MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE...THOUGH UPSTREAM OBS ONLY
SUPPORT VFR VSBY. EXCEPTION ON THE RAIN WILL BE KMSS WHICH WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL STILL SEE MVFR CIGS MOVE IN BY MID-
MORNING. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE NORTHERLY AT 8-12KTS THRU THE PERIOD
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR UNDER BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SAT - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS
FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE
SLV.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS
ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG




000
FXUS61 KALY 231735
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
135 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 127 PM EDT...A STACKED COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO SIT AND
SPIN JUST SOUTH OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. A BAND OF STEADY RAIN HAS
MOVED WESTWARD INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK AND
SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. OUR LOCAL HIRESWRF AND
THE 3KM HRRR SHOW THIS BAND CONTINUING TO MOVE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FURTHER EAST...THERE MAY BE A FEW
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT THE BULK OF
THE RAIN FOR THIS AFTN HAS ENDED FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY ON
EASTWARD. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR
TRENDS...BUT WILL KEEP POPS AT LEAST CHC IN ALL AREAS...SINCE A
FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE.

WITH THE CLOUDS...PERIODS OF RAIN AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH MOST HIGH TEMPS
REMAINING BETWEEN 45-50...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 50S IN PORTIONS
OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN LITCHFIELD CO. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY REMAIN IN THE
LOWER/MID 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRACK THESE SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY PRODUCE
PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS AND MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE FORECAST
LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY POPS WILL RANGE FROM
HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OR DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN
20 AND 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ALTHOUGH THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN WILL SHIFT WEST OF
THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHTER
RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST WELL INTO TONIGHT. THIS...COMBINED
WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING SLIGHTLY MORE INTO THE NORTH AND
DECREASING THE AMT OF DOWNSLOPING OFF THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND
BERKSHIRES...SHOULD ALLOW FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF OCCASIONAL IFR...ESP AT
KALB AND KPSF.

MVFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z/FRI...ESP AT
KGFL/KALB AND KPOU.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8
TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 231727
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
127 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 127 PM EDT...A STACKED COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO SIT AND
SPIN JUST SOUTH OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. A BAND OF STEADY RAIN HAS
MOVED WESTWARD INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK AND
SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. OUR LOCAL HIRESWRF AND
THE 3KM HRRR SHOW THIS BAND CONTINUING TO MOVE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FURTHER EAST...THERE MAY BE A FEW
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT THE BULK OF
THE RAIN FOR THIS AFTN HAS ENDED FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY ON
EASTWARD. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR
TRENDS...BUT WILL KEEP POPS AT LEAST CHC IN ALL AREAS...SINCE A
FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE.

WITH THE CLOUDS...PERIODS OF RAIN AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH MOST HIGH TEMPS
REMAINING BETWEEN 45-50...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 50S IN PORTIONS
OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN LITCHFIELD CO. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY REMAIN IN THE
LOWER/MID 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRACK THESE SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY PRODUCE
PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS AND MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE FORECAST
LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY POPS WILL RANGE FROM
HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OR DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN
20 AND 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF NEW JERSEY WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AS OF 700 AM...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES...BUT CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL VFR
RANGE. THE RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH IFR
CONDITIONS REPORTED DURING THE NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDE SOME TEMPO
GROUPS FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 14Z AT KALB/KPSF WHERE IT
APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL DURING THIS PERIOD.

DURING THE AFTERNOON...KPOU WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE
RAIN TAPERS TO -SHRA. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVE TO VFR AT KALB AND KGFL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AT KPSF...VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8 TO 12
KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...KL/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 231444
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1044 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT...BANDS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SPRAWLING VERTICALLY STACKED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IS
LIKELY. THE PERSISTENT RAINFALL ACROSS SOME E-SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES HAS LED TO SOME TOTALS REACHING
2.5-3 INCHES...WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL 0.5-1 INCH ADDITIONAL
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME MINOR...LOCALIZED
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. SEE HYDRO
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CHALLENGING ASPECT HAS BEEN A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN
SHIELD...WHICH HAS ALLOWED AREAS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY TO REMAIN GENERALLY RAIN-FREE THROUGH 1030 AM. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOWER POPS IN THESE AREAS UNTIL NOON WHEN AT
LEAST SOME RAIN SHOULD FINALLY REACH MUCH OF THIS AREA. LOCATIONS
FROM AROUND ROUTE 28 NEAR OLD FORGE NORTHWARD MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN THOUGH...SO WILL GENERALLY MENTION CHANCE TO LOW
LIKELY POPS.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS OUTPUT FROM HI RES MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...THESE BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO FINALLY TRACK
EASTWARD. LIGHTER RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AS WE LOSE THE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH
MOST HIGH TEMPS REMAINING BETWEEN 45-50...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER
50S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN
LITCHFIELD CO. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY
REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRACK THESE SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY PRODUCE
PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS AND MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE FORECAST
LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY POPS WILL RANGE FROM
HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OR DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN
20 AND 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF NEW JERSEY WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AS OF 700 AM...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES...BUT CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL VFR
RANGE. THE RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH IFR
CONDITIONS REPORTED DURING THE NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDE SOME TEMPO
GROUPS FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 14Z AT KALB/KPSF WHERE IT
APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL DURING THIS PERIOD.

DURING THE AFTERNOON...KPOU WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE
RAIN TAPERS TO -SHRA. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVE TO VFR AT KALB AND KGFL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AT KPSF...VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8 TO 12
KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...KL/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 231444
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1044 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT...BANDS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SPRAWLING VERTICALLY STACKED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IS
LIKELY. THE PERSISTENT RAINFALL ACROSS SOME E-SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES HAS LED TO SOME TOTALS REACHING
2.5-3 INCHES...WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL 0.5-1 INCH ADDITIONAL
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME MINOR...LOCALIZED
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. SEE HYDRO
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CHALLENGING ASPECT HAS BEEN A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN
SHIELD...WHICH HAS ALLOWED AREAS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY TO REMAIN GENERALLY RAIN-FREE THROUGH 1030 AM. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOWER POPS IN THESE AREAS UNTIL NOON WHEN AT
LEAST SOME RAIN SHOULD FINALLY REACH MUCH OF THIS AREA. LOCATIONS
FROM AROUND ROUTE 28 NEAR OLD FORGE NORTHWARD MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN THOUGH...SO WILL GENERALLY MENTION CHANCE TO LOW
LIKELY POPS.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS OUTPUT FROM HI RES MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...THESE BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO FINALLY TRACK
EASTWARD. LIGHTER RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AS WE LOSE THE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH
MOST HIGH TEMPS REMAINING BETWEEN 45-50...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOWER
50S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN
LITCHFIELD CO. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY
REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRACK THESE SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY PRODUCE
PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS AND MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE FORECAST
LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY POPS WILL RANGE FROM
HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OR DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN
20 AND 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF NEW JERSEY WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AS OF 700 AM...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES...BUT CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL VFR
RANGE. THE RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH IFR
CONDITIONS REPORTED DURING THE NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDE SOME TEMPO
GROUPS FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 14Z AT KALB/KPSF WHERE IT
APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL DURING THIS PERIOD.

DURING THE AFTERNOON...KPOU WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE
RAIN TAPERS TO -SHRA. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVE TO VFR AT KALB AND KGFL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AT KPSF...VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8 TO 12
KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...KL/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 231430
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1030 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER
OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1019 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATE MORNING FORECAST REFRESH DOESN`T
HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORECAST MODIFICATIONS. RADAR & SATELLITE
TRENDS SHOW THAT THE MUCH ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD RAIN IS SPREADING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. COLDER/DEEPER CLOUDS ARE NOW OVER
MUCH OF EASTERN VERMONT. RADAR SHOWING PRETTY SOLID COVERAGE FROM
EASTERN VERMONT ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTO MAINE. THUS THE
GOING FORECAST FOR POPS TO RAMP UP TO 100% FOR MOST OVER VERMONT
LOOKS GOOD. NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN
SOME DRIER AIR OUT ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN NY, SO ONCE
YOU GET WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, CHANCES FOR RAIN (AND
OVERALL AMOUNTS) WILL QUICKLY DECREASE. AT THE SAME TIME, THE LOW
IS STARTING TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST AND THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT THE
ULTIMATE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND RAINFALL.
HAVE THUS MAINTAINED A 30-40% POP OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
FOR THE BULK OF THE AFTERNOON.

THOUGH THE POPS WILL BE HIGH, THE TOTAL RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR
IT WILL BE ALL THAT HEAVY. THUS FAR THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE STAYED
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AREA ACROSS MASSACHUSSETS. WILL
STAY WITH THE LOWERING TREND THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL STAY IN
THE 0.5-0.9" RANGE AT THE MOST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY AS WELL. DIDN`T MAKE ANY
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME. 40S WILL BE COMMON, WITH LOW 50S OUT IN
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DUE TO LESS PRECIPITATION OUT THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE
GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY
ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER
SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY
DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTIVE REGIME.

BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S
IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.

ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST
POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED
PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOWING TURNING TO
THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG CAA MOVING IN POST FROPA. TEMPS AT THE
SUMMITS AREN`T INCREDIBLY COLD...SO LIKELY ONLY GOING TO SEE A
DUSTING TO MAYBE A COUPLE OF INCHES UP THERE.

WE`LL STILL BE UNDER MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK MONDAY SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TO BE AROUND AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
NICE WARMING TREND AS WE GO INTO MID-WEEK. WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WE`LL SEE TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THOUGH AT THIS TIME MODELS PREDICT THE LOW CENTER PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH WITH ONLY A WEAK RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST. DOESN`T REALLY LOOK ALL
THAT THREATENING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT STRONG
CAA BEHIND TO FRONT WILL BRING OUR TEMPS RIGHT BACK BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN MOVES IN MID-
MORNING WITH SOME MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE...THOUGH UPSTREAM OBS ONLY
SUPPORT VFR VSBY. EXCEPTION ON THE RAIN WILL BE KMSS WHICH WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL STILL SEE MVFR CIGS MOVE IN BY MID-
MORNING. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE NORTHERLY AT 8-12KTS THRU THE PERIOD
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR UNDER BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SAT - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS
FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE
SLV.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS
ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 231430
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1030 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER
OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1019 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATE MORNING FORECAST REFRESH DOESN`T
HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORECAST MODIFICATIONS. RADAR & SATELLITE
TRENDS SHOW THAT THE MUCH ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD RAIN IS SPREADING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. COLDER/DEEPER CLOUDS ARE NOW OVER
MUCH OF EASTERN VERMONT. RADAR SHOWING PRETTY SOLID COVERAGE FROM
EASTERN VERMONT ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTO MAINE. THUS THE
GOING FORECAST FOR POPS TO RAMP UP TO 100% FOR MOST OVER VERMONT
LOOKS GOOD. NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN
SOME DRIER AIR OUT ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN NY, SO ONCE
YOU GET WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, CHANCES FOR RAIN (AND
OVERALL AMOUNTS) WILL QUICKLY DECREASE. AT THE SAME TIME, THE LOW
IS STARTING TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST AND THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT THE
ULTIMATE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND RAINFALL.
HAVE THUS MAINTAINED A 30-40% POP OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
FOR THE BULK OF THE AFTERNOON.

THOUGH THE POPS WILL BE HIGH, THE TOTAL RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR
IT WILL BE ALL THAT HEAVY. THUS FAR THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE STAYED
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AREA ACROSS MASSACHUSSETS. WILL
STAY WITH THE LOWERING TREND THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL STAY IN
THE 0.5-0.9" RANGE AT THE MOST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY AS WELL. DIDN`T MAKE ANY
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME. 40S WILL BE COMMON, WITH LOW 50S OUT IN
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DUE TO LESS PRECIPITATION OUT THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE
GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY
ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER
SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY
DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTIVE REGIME.

BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S
IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.

ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST
POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED
PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOWING TURNING TO
THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG CAA MOVING IN POST FROPA. TEMPS AT THE
SUMMITS AREN`T INCREDIBLY COLD...SO LIKELY ONLY GOING TO SEE A
DUSTING TO MAYBE A COUPLE OF INCHES UP THERE.

WE`LL STILL BE UNDER MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK MONDAY SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TO BE AROUND AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
NICE WARMING TREND AS WE GO INTO MID-WEEK. WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WE`LL SEE TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THOUGH AT THIS TIME MODELS PREDICT THE LOW CENTER PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH WITH ONLY A WEAK RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST. DOESN`T REALLY LOOK ALL
THAT THREATENING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT STRONG
CAA BEHIND TO FRONT WILL BRING OUR TEMPS RIGHT BACK BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN MOVES IN MID-
MORNING WITH SOME MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE...THOUGH UPSTREAM OBS ONLY
SUPPORT VFR VSBY. EXCEPTION ON THE RAIN WILL BE KMSS WHICH WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL STILL SEE MVFR CIGS MOVE IN BY MID-
MORNING. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE NORTHERLY AT 8-12KTS THRU THE PERIOD
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR UNDER BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SAT - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS
FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE
SLV.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS
ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 231140
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
740 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER
OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 710 AM EDT THURSDAY...OPTED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS BY 1-3 DEG
FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EAST TODAY PER LATEST TRENDS AND
GUIDANCE. THIS WOULD OFFER HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
IN VT INTO THE DACKS...AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S IN THE SLV. NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...
LOOKING AT ANOTHER COOL AND RATHER BLUSTERY DAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND/LONG ISLAND COAST PIVOTS SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE BENCHMARK
BY EARLY EVENING. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN INSISTENT THAT A
BAND OF STEADIER RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY PIVOT WEST/NORTHWEST INTO
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATER THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...ESP FROM THE DACKS EASTWARD. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE PER MOST RECENT REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS...THUS LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THIS PERIOD OUTSIDE THE
SLV WHERE PCPN WILL BE MORE SHOWERY AND SCATTERED IN NATURE.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE PRIOR HOMOGENEOUS TRENDS AND SHOULD HOLD
RELATIVELY STEADY IN THE 40S UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AND MODESTLY GUSTY
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 50S FAR WEST IN THE
SLV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE
GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY
ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER
SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY
DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTIVE REGIME.

BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S
IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.

ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST
POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED
PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOWING TURNING TO
THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG CAA MOVING IN POST FROPA. TEMPS AT THE
SUMMITS AREN`T INCREDIBLY COLD...SO LIKELY ONLY GOING TO SEE A
DUSTING TO MAYBE A COUPLE OF INCHES UP THERE.

WE`LL STILL BE UNDER MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK MONDAY SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TO BE AROUND AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
NICE WARMING TREND AS WE GO INTO MID-WEEK. WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WE`LL SEE TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THOUGH AT THIS TIME MODELS PREDICT THE LOW CENTER PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH WITH ONLY A WEAK RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST. DOESN`T REALLY LOOK ALL
THAT THREATENING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT STRONG
CAA BEHIND TO FRONT WILL BRING OUR TEMPS RIGHT BACK BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN MOVES IN MID-
MORNING WITH SOME MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE...THOUGH UPSTREAM OBS ONLY
SUPPORT VFR VSBY. EXCEPTION ON THE RAIN WILL BE KMSS WHICH WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL STILL SEE MVFR CIGS MOVE IN BY MID-
MORNING. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE NORTHERLY AT 8-12KTS THRU THE PERIOD
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR UNDER BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SAT - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS
FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE
SLV.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS
ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG




000
FXUS61 KALY 231131
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
731 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...BANDS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SPRAWLING VERTICALLY STACKED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IS
LIKELY...BUT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS. REFER
TO HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CHALLENGING ASPECT HAS BEEN A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN
SHIED...WHICH HAS ALLOWED AREAS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY TO REMAIN GENERALLY RAIN-FREE AS OF 645 AM. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOWER POPS IN THESE AREAS UNTIL LATER THIS
MORNING WHEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN WILL IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY REACH
MUCH OF THIS AREA. LOCATIONS FROM AROUND ROUTE 28 NEAR OLD FORGE
NORTHWARD MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY MEASURABLE RAIN THOUGH...SO WILL
GENERALLY MENTION CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS OUTPUT FROM HI RES MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...THESE BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO FINALLY TRACK
EASTWARD. LIGHTER RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AS WE LOSE THE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH
TODAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRACK THESE SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY PRODUCE
PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS AND MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE FORECAST
LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY POPS WILL RANGE FROM
HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OR DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN
20 AND 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF NEW JERSEY WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AS OF 700 AM...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES...BUT CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL VFR
RANGE. THE RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH IFR
CONDITIONS REPORTED DURING THE NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDE SOME TEMPO
GROUPS FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 14Z AT KALB/KPSF WHERE IT
APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL DURING THIS PERIOD.

DURING THE AFTERNOON...KPOU WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE
RAIN TAPERS TO -SHRA. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVE TO VFR AT KALB AND KGFL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AT KPSF...VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8 TO 12
KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...KL/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 231110
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
710 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER
OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 710 AM EDT THURSDAY...OPTED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS BY 1-3 DEG
FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EAST TODAY PER LATEST TRENDS AND
GUIDANCE. THIS WOULD OFFER HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
IN VT INTO THE DACKS...AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S IN THE SLV. NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...
LOOKING AT ANOTHER COOL AND RATHER BLUSTERY DAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND/LONG ISLAND COAST PIVOTS SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE BENCHMARK
BY EARLY EVENING. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN INSISTENT THAT A
BAND OF STEADIER RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY PIVOT WEST/NORTHWEST INTO
THE EASTERN TWO THRIDS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATER THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...ESP FROM THE DACKS EASTWARD. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE PER MOST RECENT REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS...THUS LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THIS PERIOD OUTSIDE THE
SLV WHERE PCPN WILL BE MORE SHOWERY AND SCATTERED IN NATURE.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE PRIOR HOMOGENEOUS TRENDS AND SHOULD HOLD
RELATIVELY STEADY IN THE 40S UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AND MODESTLY GUSTY
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 50S FAR WEST IN THE
SLV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE
GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY
ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER
SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY
DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTIVE REGIME.

BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S
IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.

ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST
POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED
PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOWING TURNING TO
THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG CAA MOVING IN POST FROPA. TEMPS AT THE
SUMMITS AREN`T INCREDIBLY COLD...SO LIKELY ONLY GOING TO SEE A
DUSTING TO MAYBE A COUPLE OF INCHES UP THERE.

WE`LL STILL BE UNDER MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK MONDAY SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TO BE AROUND AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
NICE WARMING TREND AS WE GO INTO MID-WEEK. WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WE`LL SEE TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THOUGH AT THIS TIME MODELS PREDICT THE LOW CENTER PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH WITH ONLY A WEAK RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST. DOESN`T REALLY LOOK ALL
THAT THREATENING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT STRONG
CAA BEHIND TO FRONT WILL BRING OUR TEMPS RIGHT BACK BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH PREVAILINIG
MVFR/IFR CIGS IN LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. RAIN MOVES IN MID-MORNING
TOMORROW AND VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR...REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD EVEN WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF AFTER 00Z. EXCEPTION ON
THE RAIN WILL BE KMSS WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL
STILL SEE MVFR CIGS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL MAINLY NORTHERLY 8-15 KNOTS THRU THE PERIOD COULD BE A LITTLE
HIGHER AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR UNDER BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SAT - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS
FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE
SLV.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS
ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG




000
FXUS61 KALY 231046
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
646 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...BANDS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SPRAWLING VERTICALLY STACKED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IS
LIKELY...BUT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS. REFER
TO HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CHALLENGING ASPECT HAS BEEN A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN
SHIED...WHICH HAS ALLOWED AREAS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY TO REMAIN GENERALLY RAIN-FREE AS OF 645 AM. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOWER POPS IN THESE AREAS UNTIL LATER THIS
MORNING WHEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN WILL IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY REACH
MUCH OF THIS AREA. LOCATIONS FROM AROUND ROUTE 28 NEAR OLD FORGE
NORTHWARD MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY MEASURABLE RAIN THOUGH...SO WILL
GENERALLY MENTION CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS OUTPUT FROM HI RES MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...THESE BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO FINALLY TRACK
EASTWARD. LIGHTER RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AS WE LOSE THE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH
TODAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRACK THESE SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY PRODUCE
PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS AND MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE FORECAST
LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY POPS WILL RANGE FROM
HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OR DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN
20 AND 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS OF 130 AM...PRIMARY RAINFALL BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
IS NOW ORIENTED EAST TO WEST AND WAS AFFECTING THE KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES. THE BAND HAD ALREADY SHIFTED NORTH OF THE KPOU TAF SITE AND
HAD NOT YET REACHED THE KGFL TAF SITE. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AND BECOME ORIENTED MORE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MVFR TO
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND
16Z/17Z...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPOU...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD...POSSIBLY BECOMING VFR AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.

AT KGFL...VFR VSBYS/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 08Z...THEN
DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z AS THE
RAIN BAND SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE KGFL AREA. DURING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 10 TO 14
KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 230831
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
431 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...BANDS OF RAIN MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST CONTINUE
TO PINWHEEL AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING VERTICALLY
STACKED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A
CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
RESULTING IN MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR THE TACONICS...NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND
OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IS LIKELY...BUT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY
SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS. REFER TO HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CHALLENGING ASPECT HAS BEEN A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN
SHIED...WHICH HAS ALLOWED AREAS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY TO REMAIN GENERALLY RAIN-FREE AS OF 4 AM. WILL LOWER
POPS IN THESE AREAS UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING WHEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN
WILL IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY REACH MUCH OF THIS AREA. LOCATIONS FROM
AROUND ROUTE 28 NEAR OLD FORGE NORTHWARD MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN THOUGH...SO WILL GENERALLY MENTION CHANCE POPS.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS OUTPUT FROM HI RES MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...THESE BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO FINALLY TRACK
EASTWARD. LIGHTER RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AS WE LOSE THE CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS AT
THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH TODAY WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRACK THESE SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY PRODUCE
PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS AND MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE FORECAST
LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY POPS WILL RANGE FROM
HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO SLIGHT CHANCE
OR DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN
20 AND 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS OF 130 AM...PRIMARY RAINFALL BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
IS NOW ORIENTED EAST TO WEST AND WAS AFFECTING THE KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES. THE BAND HAD ALREADY SHIFTED NORTH OF THE KPOU TAF SITE AND
HAD NOT YET REACHED THE KGFL TAF SITE. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AND BECOME ORIENTED MORE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MVFR TO
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND
16Z/17Z...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPOU...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD...POSSIBLY BECOMING VFR AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.

AT KGFL...VFR VSBYS/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 08Z...THEN
DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z AS THE
RAIN BAND SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE KGFL AREA. DURING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 10 TO 14
KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV












000
FXUS61 KALY 230814
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
414 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...BANDS OF RAIN MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST CONTINUE
TO PINWHEEL AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING VERTICALLY
STACKED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A
CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
RESULTING IN MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR THE TACONICS...NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND
OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IS LIKELY...BUT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY
SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS. REFER TO HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CHALLENGING ASPECT HAS BEEN A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN
SHIED...WHICH HAS ALLOWED AREAS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY TO REMAIN GENERALLY RAIN-FREE AS OF 4 AM. WILL LOWER
POPS IN THESE AREAS UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING WHEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN
WILL IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY REACH MUCH OF THIS AREA. LOCATIONS FROM
AROUND ROUTE 28 NEAR OLD FORGE NORTHWARD MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN THOUGH...SO WILL GENERALLY MENTION CHANCE POPS.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS OUTPUT FROM HI RES MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...THESE BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO FINALLY TRACK
EASTWARD. LIGHTER RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AS WE LOSE THE CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS AT
THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH TODAY WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS OF 130 AM...PRIMARY RAINFALL BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
IS NOW ORIENTED EAST TO WEST AND WAS AFFECTING THE KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES. THE BAND HAD ALREADY SHIFTED NORTH OF THE KPOU TAF SITE AND
HAD NOT YET REACHED THE KGFL TAF SITE. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AND BECOME ORIENTED MORE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MVFR TO
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND
16Z/17Z...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPOU...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD...POSSIBLY BECOMING VFR AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.

AT KGFL...VFR VSBYS/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 08Z...THEN
DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z AS THE
RAIN BAND SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE KGFL AREA. DURING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 10 TO 14
KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV









000
FXUS61 KALY 230814
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
414 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...BANDS OF RAIN MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST CONTINUE
TO PINWHEEL AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING VERTICALLY
STACKED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A
CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
RESULTING IN MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR THE TACONICS...NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND
OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IS LIKELY...BUT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY
SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS. REFER TO HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CHALLENGING ASPECT HAS BEEN A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN
SHIED...WHICH HAS ALLOWED AREAS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY TO REMAIN GENERALLY RAIN-FREE AS OF 4 AM. WILL LOWER
POPS IN THESE AREAS UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING WHEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN
WILL IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY REACH MUCH OF THIS AREA. LOCATIONS FROM
AROUND ROUTE 28 NEAR OLD FORGE NORTHWARD MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN THOUGH...SO WILL GENERALLY MENTION CHANCE POPS.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS OUTPUT FROM HI RES MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...THESE BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO FINALLY TRACK
EASTWARD. LIGHTER RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AS WE LOSE THE CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS AT
THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH TODAY WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS OF 130 AM...PRIMARY RAINFALL BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
IS NOW ORIENTED EAST TO WEST AND WAS AFFECTING THE KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES. THE BAND HAD ALREADY SHIFTED NORTH OF THE KPOU TAF SITE AND
HAD NOT YET REACHED THE KGFL TAF SITE. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AND BECOME ORIENTED MORE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MVFR TO
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND
16Z/17Z...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPOU...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD...POSSIBLY BECOMING VFR AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.

AT KGFL...VFR VSBYS/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 08Z...THEN
DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z AS THE
RAIN BAND SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE KGFL AREA. DURING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 10 TO 14
KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV









000
FXUS61 KBTV 230806
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
406 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER
OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LOOKING AT ANOTHER COOL AND RATHER
BLUSTERY DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/LONG ISLAND COAST PIVOTS SLOWLY EAST
TOWARD THE BENCHMARK BY EARLY EVENING. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
REMAIN INSISTENT THAT A BAND OF STEADIER RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY
PIVOT WEST/NORTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN TWO THRIDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...ESP FROM THE
DACKS EASTWARD. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE PER MOST RECENT REGIONAL
RADAR TRENDS...THUS LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED
FOR THIS PERIOD OUTSIDE THE SLV WHERE PCPN WILL BE MORE SHOWERY
AND SCATTERED IN NATURE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE PRIOR HOMOGENEOUS
TRENDS AND SHOULD HOLD RELATIVELY STEADY IN THE 40S UNDER CLOUDY
SKIES AND MODESTLY GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. PERHAPS A FEW
LOWER 50S FAR WEST IN THE SLV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE
GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY
ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER
SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY
DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTIVE REGIME.

BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S
IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.

ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST
POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED
PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOWING TURNING TO
THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG CAA MOVING IN POST FROPA. TEMPS AT THE
SUMMITS AREN`T INCREDIBLY COLD...SO LIKELY ONLY GOING TO SEE A
DUSTING TO MAYBE A COUPLE OF INCHES UP THERE.

WE`LL STILL BE UNDER MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK MONDAY SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TO BE AROUND AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
NICE WARMING TREND AS WE GO INTO MID-WEEK. WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WE`LL SEE TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THOUGH AT THIS TIME MODELS PREDICT THE LOW CENTER PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH WITH ONLY A WEAK RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST. DOESN`T REALLY LOOK ALL
THAT THREATENING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT STRONG
CAA BEHIND TO FRONT WILL BRING OUR TEMPS RIGHT BACK BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH PREVAILINIG
MVFR/IFR CIGS IN LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. RAIN MOVES IN MID-MORNING
TOMORROW AND VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR...REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD EVEN WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF AFTER 00Z. EXCEPTION ON
THE RAIN WILL BE KMSS WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL
STILL SEE MVFR CIGS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL MAINLY NORTHERLY 8-15 KNOTS THRU THE PERIOD COULD BE A LITTLE
HIGHER AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR UNDER BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SAT - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS
FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE
SLV.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS
ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 230806
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
406 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. SHOWERS TAPER
OFF ON FRIDAY...BUT RETURN BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY. DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LOOKING AT ANOTHER COOL AND RATHER
BLUSTERY DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/LONG ISLAND COAST PIVOTS SLOWLY EAST
TOWARD THE BENCHMARK BY EARLY EVENING. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
REMAIN INSISTENT THAT A BAND OF STEADIER RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY
PIVOT WEST/NORTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN TWO THRIDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...ESP FROM THE
DACKS EASTWARD. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE PER MOST RECENT REGIONAL
RADAR TRENDS...THUS LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED
FOR THIS PERIOD OUTSIDE THE SLV WHERE PCPN WILL BE MORE SHOWERY
AND SCATTERED IN NATURE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE PRIOR HOMOGENEOUS
TRENDS AND SHOULD HOLD RELATIVELY STEADY IN THE 40S UNDER CLOUDY
SKIES AND MODESTLY GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. PERHAPS A FEW
LOWER 50S FAR WEST IN THE SLV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...BY TONIGHT TODAY`S SLUG OF MOISTURE
GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IMPETUS AS PARENT UPPER DYNAMICS PULL STEADILY
ENE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT DAMP/WET CONDS FROM
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS EAST INTO VT...BUT PCPN CHARACTER
SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AND LESSEN IN OVERALL COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. OUTSIDE SOME EVENING SHOWERS...SLV SHOULD TREND MAINLY
DRY FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD. LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY/NORTHERLY FLOW AND NEUTRAL
ADVECTIVE REGIME.

BY FRIDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NC/NE VT WHERE SOME ADDL LIGHT TOTALS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TRENDING MAINLY DRY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD.
WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW DID OPT TO LEAN
ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO TEMPS...HOLDING MAX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS...PERHAPS MID 50S
IN THE SLV WHERE SOME AFTERNOON PARTIAL SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS PESKY CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN OVER TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS END NORTHEAST WITH LOW TEMPS A TAD COOLER...MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.

ON SATURDAY MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL AND RATHER ROBUST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS. GIVEN TIMING OF THE FEATURE HIGHEST
POPS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MODESTLY MIXED
PBL...HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER FOR MOST SPOTS...MAINLY 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOWING TURNING TO
THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG CAA MOVING IN POST FROPA. TEMPS AT THE
SUMMITS AREN`T INCREDIBLY COLD...SO LIKELY ONLY GOING TO SEE A
DUSTING TO MAYBE A COUPLE OF INCHES UP THERE.

WE`LL STILL BE UNDER MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK MONDAY SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TO BE AROUND AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
NICE WARMING TREND AS WE GO INTO MID-WEEK. WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WE`LL SEE TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THOUGH AT THIS TIME MODELS PREDICT THE LOW CENTER PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH WITH ONLY A WEAK RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST. DOESN`T REALLY LOOK ALL
THAT THREATENING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT STRONG
CAA BEHIND TO FRONT WILL BRING OUR TEMPS RIGHT BACK BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH PREVAILINIG
MVFR/IFR CIGS IN LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. RAIN MOVES IN MID-MORNING
TOMORROW AND VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR...REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD EVEN WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF AFTER 00Z. EXCEPTION ON
THE RAIN WILL BE KMSS WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL
STILL SEE MVFR CIGS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL MAINLY NORTHERLY 8-15 KNOTS THRU THE PERIOD COULD BE A LITTLE
HIGHER AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR UNDER BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SAT - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS PCPN TOTALS
FROM CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PRIOR INDICATIONS SO NO
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA RIVERS. 3-DAY TOTALS
ENDING FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS TO NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MTNS. FURTHER WEST TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES IN THE
SLV.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THUS A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THIS PACKAGE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CHOPPY TO LOCALLY ROUGH WATERS TODAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS ROUGHER ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. CAUTION IS THUS
ADVISED TO THOSE PLANNING TO OPERATE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LAKE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 230755
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
355 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL
KEEP THE AREA IN A CLOUDY, DAMP AND COOL WEATHER PATTERN INTO
FRIDAY, THOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1258 AM EDT THURSDAY...CUT BACK ON POPS CONSIDERABLY UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT/TOWARD DAYBREAK BASED OFF LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
MOST RECENT CAM SOLUTIONS. IN FACT...TRENDS SUGGEST STEADIER RAIN
MAY NOT ARRIVE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD UNTIL
LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE AS TEMPS HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT UNDER
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. DEEP, SLOW- MOVING
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD
TO NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY 23/12 UTC. CLOUD CANOPY
ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE LOW AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ENCOMPASSES THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT GENERALLY LOOKING AT MID-UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER IS MORE EXTENSIVE WITH UPSLOPE COMPONENT EAST
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN SPINE THIS EVENING. COMPOSITE RADAR
REFLECTIVITY AT 0240 UTC SHOWS INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAIN ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE FROM EAST TO
WEST FROM NH INTO VERMONT TOWARD DAYBREAK. POP FIELDS DEPICT THIS
INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA. THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH ACROSS THE REGION, NOR WILL
THEY DROP MUCH GIVEN NEAR SATURATION AND OVERCAST CONDITIONS. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S. SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EAST OF/ALONG THE GREENS...ESPECIALLY AS RAIN INCREASES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH DAWN THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.40"
ACROSS CENTRAL/SERN VT...0.10-0.20" ACROSS RUTLAND COUNTY AND MUCH
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKING WET, ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE COVERING ALL
OF VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NY BY FIRST THING THURSDAY. AS THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SLOWLY START MOVING NORTHEAST, WE SHOULD SEE
AN AREA OF RAINFALL MOVE INTO NORTHERN VERMONT AND THEN BEGIN TO
PIVOT AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST. SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY. ANTICIPATE UPWARDS OF 1" OF RAIN IN AREAS
TOMORROW. BY THE TIME MOST OF THE RAIN WINDS DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY, WE ARE LOOKING FOR ABOUT 1.5" (MUCH LESS IN THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY) TOTALS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
FLOODING ISSUES.

HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY AS THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN. IN FACT, I TRIED TO INDICATE DIURNAL
SWINGS OF 5 DEGREES OR LESS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL FEATURE SLOW IMPROVEMENT AS THE
SLOW MOVING LOW SLOWLY PUSHES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE, AND WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA FOR 30-45% POPS AND A TON OF
CLOUDS. STILL LITTLE TEMPERATURE VARIATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 354 AM EDT THURSDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOWING TURNING TO
THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG CAA MOVING IN POST FROPA. TEMPS AT THE
SUMMITS AREN`T INCREDIBLY COLD...SO LIKELY ONLY GOING TO SEE A
DUSTING TO MAYBE A COUPLE OF INCHES UP THERE.

WE`LL STILL BE UNDER MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO BEGIN THE WORK
WEEK MONDAY SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS TO BE AROUND AND
POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
NICE WARMING TREND AS WE GO INTO MID-WEEK. WHILE HIGHS MONDAY WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WE`LL SEE TEMPS
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THOUGH AT THIS TIME MODELS PREDICT THE LOW CENTER PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH WITH ONLY A WEAK RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST. DOESN`T REALLY LOOK ALL
THAT THREATENING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN RIGHT NOW...BUT STRONG
CAA BEHIND TO FRONT WILL BRING OUR TEMPS RIGHT BACK BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH PREVAILINIG
MVFR/IFR CIGS IN LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. RAIN MOVES IN MID-MORNING
TOMORROW AND VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR...REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD EVEN WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF AFTER 00Z. EXCEPTION ON
THE RAIN WILL BE KMSS WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL
STILL SEE MVFR CIGS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL MAINLY NORTHERLY 8-15 KNOTS THRU THE PERIOD COULD BE A LITTLE
HIGHER AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR UNDER BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SAT - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH LESS RAIN FALLING
TODAY THAN EARLIER EXPECTED, OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS BY FRIDAY
MORNING ARE LESS THAN WE THOUGHT AS OF A FEW DAYS AGO. GENERALLY
LOOKING AT ABOUT 1.5" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT (LOWER VALUES IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO RAIN SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS)
AND PERHAPS SPOT 2" AMOUNTS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL GREEN MOUNTAINS. OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AMOUNTS
WILL BE MUCH LESS 1/2" OR LESS. GIVEN THE RELATIVE LONG DURATION
OF RAINFALL AND THE BASE LEVEL RIVER FLOWS, WE CERTAINLY EXPECT
RIVER LEVELS TO RISE, BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TO GO OUT OF
THEIR BANKS. PERHAPS THE WORST WE`LL SEE IS SOME PONDING ON ROADS
WHERE DRAINAGES HAVE BEEN BLOCKED BY LEAVES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALL NIGHT, ALL DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY
EVENING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN, WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE.
STRONGEST OF THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE. THESE WINDS SHOULD GENERATE CHOPPY 2-3 FOOT
WAVES. AS A RESULT, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...NASH
MARINE...NASH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 230545
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
145 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL
KEEP THE AREA IN A CLOUDY, DAMP AND COOL WEATHER PATTERN INTO
FRIDAY, THOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1258 AM EDT THURSDAY...CUT BACK ON POPS CONSIDERABLY UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT/TOWARD DAYBREAK BASED OFF LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
MOST RECENT CAM SOLUTIONS. IN FACT...TRENDS SUGGEST STEADIER RAIN
MAY NOT ARRIVE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD UNTIL
LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE AS TEMPS HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT UNDER
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. DEEP, SLOW- MOVING
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD
TO NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY 23/12 UTC. CLOUD CANOPY
ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE LOW AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ENCOMPASSES THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT GENERALLY LOOKING AT MID-UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER IS MORE EXTENSIVE WITH UPSLOPE COMPONENT EAST
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN SPINE THIS EVENING. COMPOSITE RADAR
REFLECTIVITY AT 0240 UTC SHOWS INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAIN ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE FROM EAST TO
WEST FROM NH INTO VERMONT TOWARD DAYBREAK. POP FIELDS DEPICT THIS
INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA. THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH ACROSS THE REGION, NOR WILL
THEY DROP MUCH GIVEN NEAR SATURATION AND OVERCAST CONDITIONS. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S. SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EAST OF/ALONG THE GREENS...ESPECIALLY AS RAIN INCREASES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH DAWN THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.40"
ACROSS CENTRAL/SERN VT...0.10-0.20" ACROSS RUTLAND COUNTY AND MUCH
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKING WET, ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE COVERING ALL
OF VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NY BY FIRST THING THURSDAY. AS THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SLOWLY START MOVING NORTHEAST, WE SHOULD SEE
AN AREA OF RAINFALL MOVE INTO NORTHERN VERMONT AND THEN BEGIN TO
PIVOT AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST. SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY. ANTICIPATE UPWARDS OF 1" OF RAIN IN AREAS
TOMORROW. BY THE TIME MOST OF THE RAIN WINDS DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY, WE ARE LOOKING FOR ABOUT 1.5" (MUCH LESS IN THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY) TOTALS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
FLOODING ISSUES.

HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY AS THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN. IN FACT, I TRIED TO INDICATE DIURNAL
SWINGS OF 5 DEGREES OR LESS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL FEATURE SLOW IMPROVEMENT AS THE
SLOW MOVING LOW SLOWLY PUSHES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE, AND WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA FOR 30-45% POPS AND A TON OF
CLOUDS. STILL LITTLE TEMPERATURE VARIATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AT 500 MB
FROM 12Z SATURDAY ONWARD. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA STARTING AT 12Z FOR A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND...BUT LOW
PRESSURE IN NW FLOW MOVING ACROSS OTTAWA WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS
PRESENCE FELT LATE SATURDAY. AREA STILL IN RELATIVELY WARM AIR AND
PRECIP TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD SURFACE AND
UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH DRY AND SEASONAL
CONDITIONS. TOWARD MID WEEK THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH THE NEXT
LOW TRACKING ALONG THE US CANADIAN BORDER AND SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT COMBO. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SURFACE
LOW MOVING NORTH OF FORECAST AREA...AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
BRINGING NEW CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS START OFF NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...THEN AS RIDGE
BUILDS IN TUESDAY TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN
THE WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH PREVAILINIG
MVFR/IFR CIGS IN LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. RAIN MOVES IN MID-MORNING
TOMORROW AND VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR...REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD EVEN WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF AFTER 00Z. EXCEPTION ON
THE RAIN WILL BE KMSS WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY...BUT WILL
STILL SEE MVFR CIGS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL MAINLY NORTHERLY 8-15 KNOTS THRU THE PERIOD COULD BE A LITTLE
HIGHER AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR UNDER BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE.

12Z SAT - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH LESS RAIN FALLING
TODAY THAN EARLIER EXPECTED, OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS BY FRIDAY
MORNING ARE LESS THAN WE THOUGHT AS OF A FEW DAYS AGO. GENERALLY
LOOKING AT ABOUT 1.5" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT (LOWER VALUES IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO RAIN SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS)
AND PERHAPS SPOT 2" AMOUNTS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL GREEN MOUNTAINS. OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AMOUNTS
WILL BE MUCH LESS 1/2" OR LESS. GIVEN THE RELATIVE LONG DURATION
OF RAINFALL AND THE BASE LEVEL RIVER FLOWS, WE CERTAINLY EXPECT
RIVER LEVELS TO RISE, BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TO GO OUT OF
THEIR BANKS. PERHAPS THE WORST WE`LL SEE IS SOME PONDING ON ROADS
WHERE DRAINAGES HAVE BEEN BLOCKED BY LEAVES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALL NIGHT, ALL DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY
EVENING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN, WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE.
STRONGEST OF THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE. THESE WINDS SHOULD GENERATE CHOPPY 2-3 FOOT
WAVES. AS A RESULT, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...NASH
MARINE...NASH




000
FXUS61 KALY 230544
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
143 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 128 AM EDT...UPDATED POPS/WEATHER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND TRENDS. STILL A LACK OF RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...SO CUT BACK ON
POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR THIS UPDATE. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS OCCURRING
RATHER SOUTH FORM AROUND THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHERE THERE IS A BREAK.

BANDS OF RAIN CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM EAST TO WEST WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
EMBEDDED BANDS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE BERKSHIRES...TACONICS... AND
MID HUDSON VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

A DOUBLE BARREL SURFACE LOW IS EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF
LONG ISLAND TO JUST OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS
SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. 850 HPA EASTERLY WIND
ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE TONIGHT...SHOWING AN
IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION. SFC WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND
10 TO 15 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS
AIR IS FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY
BE LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS OF 130 AM...PRIMARY RAINFALL BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
IS NOW ORIENTED EAST TO WEST AND WAS AFFECTING THE KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES. THE BAND HAD ALREADY SHIFTED NORTH OF THE KPOU TAF SITE AND
HAD NOT YET REACHED THE KGFL TAF SITE. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AND BECOME ORIENTED MORE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MVFR TO
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND
16Z/17Z...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPOU...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD...POSSIBLY BECOMING VFR AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.

AT KGFL...VFR VSBYS/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 08Z...THEN
DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z AS THE
RAIN BAND SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE KGFL AREA. DURING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 10 TO 14
KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS












000
FXUS61 KALY 230543
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
143 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 128 AM EDT...UPDATED POPS/WEATHER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND TRENDS. STILL A LACK OF RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...SO CUT BACK ON
POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR THIS UPDATE. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS OCCURRING
RATHER SOUTH FORM AROUND THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHERE THERE IS A BREAK.

BANDS OF RAIN CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM EAST TO WEST WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
EMBEDDED BANDS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE BERKSHIRES...TACONICS... AND
MID HUDSON VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

A DOUBLE BARREL SURFACE LOW IS EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF
LONG ISLAND TO JUST OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS
SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. 850 HPA EASTERLY WIND
ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE TONIGHT...SHOWING AN
IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION. SFC WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND
10 TO 15 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS
AIR IS FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY
BE LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS OF 130 AM...PRIMARY RAINFALL BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
IS NOW ORIENTED EAST TO WEST AND WAS AFFECTING THE KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES. THE BAND HAD ALREADY SHIFTED NORTH OF THE KPOU TAF SITE AND
HAD NOT YET REACHED THE KGFL TAF SITE. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AND BECOME ORIENTED MORE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MVFR TO
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND
16Z/17Z...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 00Z FRIDAY.

AT KPOU...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD...POSSIBLY BECOMING VFR AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.

AT KGFL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 08Z...THEN
DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z AS THE
RAIN BAND SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE KGFL AREA. DURING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 10 TO 14
KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS











000
FXUS61 KALY 230528
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 128 AM EDT...UPDATED POPS/WEATHER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND TRENDS. STILL A LACK OF RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...SO CUT BACK ON
POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR THIS UPDATE. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS OCCURRING
RATHER SOUTH FORM AROUND THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHERE THERE IS A BREAK.

BANDS OF RAIN CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM EAST TO WEST WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
EMBEDDED BANDS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE BERKSHIRES...TACONICS... AND
MID HUDSON VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

A DOUBLE BARREL SURFACE LOW IS EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF
LONG ISLAND TO JUST OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS
SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. 850 HPA EASTERLY WIND
ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE TONIGHT...SHOWING AN
IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION. SFC WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND
10 TO 15 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS
AIR IS FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY
BE LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG
THE HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE
GO PAST 06Z THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY COULD EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL
WITH IFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT.
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z
TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 00Z FRIDAY FOR ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM/11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 230458
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1258 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL
KEEP THE AREA IN A CLOUDY, DAMP AND COOL WEATHER PATTERN INTO
FRIDAY, THOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1258 AM EDT THURSDAY...CUT BACK ON POPS CONSIDERABLY UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT/TOWARD DAYBREAK BASED OFF LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
MOST RECENT CAM SOLUTIONS. IN FACT...TRENDS SUGGEST STEADIER RAIN
MAY NOT ARRIVE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD UNTIL
LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE AS TEMPS HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT UNDER
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. DEEP, SLOW- MOVING
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD
TO NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY 23/12 UTC. CLOUD CANOPY
ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE LOW AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ENCOMPASSES THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT GENERALLY LOOKING AT MID-UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER IS MORE EXTENSIVE WITH UPSLOPE COMPONENT EAST
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN SPINE THIS EVENING. COMPOSITE RADAR
REFLECTIVITY AT 0240 UTC SHOWS INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAIN ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE FROM EAST TO
WEST FROM NH INTO VERMONT TOWARD DAYBREAK. POP FIELDS DEPICT THIS
INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA. THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH ACROSS THE REGION, NOR WILL
THEY DROP MUCH GIVEN NEAR SATURATION AND OVERCAST CONDITIONS. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S. SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EAST OF/ALONG THE GREENS...ESPECIALLY AS RAIN INCREASES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH DAWN THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.40"
ACROSS CENTRAL/SERN VT...0.10-0.20" ACROSS RUTLAND COUNTY AND MUCH
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKING WET, ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE COVERING ALL
OF VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NY BY FIRST THING THURSDAY. AS THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SLOWLY START MOVING NORTHEAST, WE SHOULD SEE
AN AREA OF RAINFALL MOVE INTO NORTHERN VERMONT AND THEN BEGIN TO
PIVOT AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST. SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY. ANTICIPATE UPWARDS OF 1" OF RAIN IN AREAS
TOMORROW. BY THE TIME MOST OF THE RAIN WINDS DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY, WE ARE LOOKING FOR ABOUT 1.5" (MUCH LESS IN THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY) TOTALS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
FLOODING ISSUES.

HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY AS THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN. IN FACT, I TRIED TO INDICATE DIURNAL
SWINGS OF 5 DEGREES OR LESS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL FEATURE SLOW IMPROVEMENT AS THE
SLOW MOVING LOW SLOWLY PUSHES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE, AND WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA FOR 30-45% POPS AND A TON OF
CLOUDS. STILL LITTLE TEMPERATURE VARIATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AT 500 MB
FROM 12Z SATURDAY ONWARD. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA STARTING AT 12Z FOR A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND...BUT LOW
PRESSURE IN NW FLOW MOVING ACROSS OTTAWA WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS
PRESENCE FELT LATE SATURDAY. AREA STILL IN RELATIVELY WARM AIR AND
PRECIP TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD SURFACE AND
UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH DRY AND SEASONAL
CONDITIONS. TOWARD MID WEEK THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH THE NEXT
LOW TRACKING ALONG THE US CANADIAN BORDER AND SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT COMBO. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SURFACE
LOW MOVING NORTH OF FORECAST AREA...AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
BRINGING NEW CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS START OFF NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...THEN AS RIDGE
BUILDS IN TUESDAY TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN
THE WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IS REALLY DEVELOPING FAST
NOW AND WILL BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
WITH PREVAILINIG MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN FROM
EAST TO WEST ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO THAN LAST EVENING. BANDS OF RAIN ON
RADAR WILL BECOME GRADUALLY MORE NUMEROUS AND HAVE INDICATED WITH
TEMPO GROUPS OF RAIN SHOWERS THEN JUST PREVAILING RAIN BY MORNING.
WINDS WILL MAINLY NORTHERLY 8-15 KNOTS THRU THE PERIOD COULD BE A
LITTLE HIGHER AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN MVFR/IFR AS LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
FRI...IFR BECOMING MVFR/VFR WITH -SHRA AND N WINDS.
SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH PM SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SUN/MON...MVFR/LCL IFR WITH CLOUDS AND -SHRA VALLEYS AND -SHSN
MTNS UNDER CYCLONIC NW FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH LESS RAIN FALLING
TODAY THAN EARLIER EXPECTED, OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS BY FRIDAY
MORNING ARE LESS THAN WE THOUGHT AS OF A FEW DAYS AGO. GENERALLY
LOOKING AT ABOUT 1.5" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT (LOWER VALUES IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO RAIN SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS)
AND PERHAPS SPOT 2" AMOUNTS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL GREEN MOUNTAINS. OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AMOUNTS
WILL BE MUCH LESS 1/2" OR LESS. GIVEN THE RELATIVE LONG DURATION
OF RAINFALL AND THE BASE LEVEL RIVER FLOWS, WE CERTAINLY EXPECT
RIVER LEVELS TO RISE, BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TO GO OUT OF
THEIR BANKS. PERHAPS THE WORST WE`LL SEE IS SOME PONDING ON ROADS
WHERE DRAINAGES HAVE BEEN BLOCKED BY LEAVES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALL NIGHT, ALL DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY
EVENING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN, WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE.
STRONGEST OF THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE. THESE WINDS SHOULD GENERATE CHOPPY 2-3 FOOT
WAVES. AS A RESULT, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...SISSON
HYDROLOGY...NASH
MARINE...NASH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 230458
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1258 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL
KEEP THE AREA IN A CLOUDY, DAMP AND COOL WEATHER PATTERN INTO
FRIDAY, THOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1258 AM EDT THURSDAY...CUT BACK ON POPS CONSIDERABLY UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT/TOWARD DAYBREAK BASED OFF LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
MOST RECENT CAM SOLUTIONS. IN FACT...TRENDS SUGGEST STEADIER RAIN
MAY NOT ARRIVE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD UNTIL
LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE AS TEMPS HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT UNDER
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. PRIOR DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. DEEP, SLOW- MOVING
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD
TO NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY 23/12 UTC. CLOUD CANOPY
ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE LOW AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ENCOMPASSES THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT GENERALLY LOOKING AT MID-UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER IS MORE EXTENSIVE WITH UPSLOPE COMPONENT EAST
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN SPINE THIS EVENING. COMPOSITE RADAR
REFLECTIVITY AT 0240 UTC SHOWS INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAIN ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE FROM EAST TO
WEST FROM NH INTO VERMONT TOWARD DAYBREAK. POP FIELDS DEPICT THIS
INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA. THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH ACROSS THE REGION, NOR WILL
THEY DROP MUCH GIVEN NEAR SATURATION AND OVERCAST CONDITIONS. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S. SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EAST OF/ALONG THE GREENS...ESPECIALLY AS RAIN INCREASES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH DAWN THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.40"
ACROSS CENTRAL/SERN VT...0.10-0.20" ACROSS RUTLAND COUNTY AND MUCH
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKING WET, ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE COVERING ALL
OF VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NY BY FIRST THING THURSDAY. AS THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SLOWLY START MOVING NORTHEAST, WE SHOULD SEE
AN AREA OF RAINFALL MOVE INTO NORTHERN VERMONT AND THEN BEGIN TO
PIVOT AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST. SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY. ANTICIPATE UPWARDS OF 1" OF RAIN IN AREAS
TOMORROW. BY THE TIME MOST OF THE RAIN WINDS DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY, WE ARE LOOKING FOR ABOUT 1.5" (MUCH LESS IN THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY) TOTALS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
FLOODING ISSUES.

HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY AS THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN. IN FACT, I TRIED TO INDICATE DIURNAL
SWINGS OF 5 DEGREES OR LESS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL FEATURE SLOW IMPROVEMENT AS THE
SLOW MOVING LOW SLOWLY PUSHES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE, AND WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA FOR 30-45% POPS AND A TON OF
CLOUDS. STILL LITTLE TEMPERATURE VARIATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AT 500 MB
FROM 12Z SATURDAY ONWARD. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA STARTING AT 12Z FOR A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND...BUT LOW
PRESSURE IN NW FLOW MOVING ACROSS OTTAWA WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS
PRESENCE FELT LATE SATURDAY. AREA STILL IN RELATIVELY WARM AIR AND
PRECIP TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD SURFACE AND
UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH DRY AND SEASONAL
CONDITIONS. TOWARD MID WEEK THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH THE NEXT
LOW TRACKING ALONG THE US CANADIAN BORDER AND SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT COMBO. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SURFACE
LOW MOVING NORTH OF FORECAST AREA...AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
BRINGING NEW CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS START OFF NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...THEN AS RIDGE
BUILDS IN TUESDAY TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN
THE WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IS REALLY DEVELOPING FAST
NOW AND WILL BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
WITH PREVAILINIG MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN FROM
EAST TO WEST ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO THAN LAST EVENING. BANDS OF RAIN ON
RADAR WILL BECOME GRADUALLY MORE NUMEROUS AND HAVE INDICATED WITH
TEMPO GROUPS OF RAIN SHOWERS THEN JUST PREVAILING RAIN BY MORNING.
WINDS WILL MAINLY NORTHERLY 8-15 KNOTS THRU THE PERIOD COULD BE A
LITTLE HIGHER AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN MVFR/IFR AS LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
FRI...IFR BECOMING MVFR/VFR WITH -SHRA AND N WINDS.
SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH PM SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SUN/MON...MVFR/LCL IFR WITH CLOUDS AND -SHRA VALLEYS AND -SHSN
MTNS UNDER CYCLONIC NW FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH LESS RAIN FALLING
TODAY THAN EARLIER EXPECTED, OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS BY FRIDAY
MORNING ARE LESS THAN WE THOUGHT AS OF A FEW DAYS AGO. GENERALLY
LOOKING AT ABOUT 1.5" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT (LOWER VALUES IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO RAIN SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS)
AND PERHAPS SPOT 2" AMOUNTS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL GREEN MOUNTAINS. OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AMOUNTS
WILL BE MUCH LESS 1/2" OR LESS. GIVEN THE RELATIVE LONG DURATION
OF RAINFALL AND THE BASE LEVEL RIVER FLOWS, WE CERTAINLY EXPECT
RIVER LEVELS TO RISE, BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TO GO OUT OF
THEIR BANKS. PERHAPS THE WORST WE`LL SEE IS SOME PONDING ON ROADS
WHERE DRAINAGES HAVE BEEN BLOCKED BY LEAVES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALL NIGHT, ALL DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY
EVENING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN, WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE.
STRONGEST OF THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE. THESE WINDS SHOULD GENERATE CHOPPY 2-3 FOOT
WAVES. AS A RESULT, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...SISSON
HYDROLOGY...NASH
MARINE...NASH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 230246
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1046 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL
KEEP THE AREA IN A CLOUDY, DAMP AND COOL WEATHER PATTERN INTO
FRIDAY, THOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1035 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. DEEP, SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NJ
COAST WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY
23/12 UTC. CLOUD CANOPY ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSES THE NORTH
COUNTRY...BUT GENERALLY LOOKING AT MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WEST OF
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER IS MORE
EXTENSIVE WITH UPSLOPE COMPONENT EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN SPINE
THIS EVENING. COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY AT 0240 UTC SHOWS
INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAIN ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE FROM EAST TO WEST FROM NH INTO VERMONT
TOWARD DAYBREAK. POP FIELDS DEPICT THIS INCREASE FROM EAST TO
WEST ACROSS THE AREA. THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN DRY
FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH ACROSS THE REGION, NOR WILL
THEY DROP MUCH GIVEN NEAR SATURATION AND OVERCAST CONDITIONS. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S. SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EAST OF/ALONG THE GREENS...ESPECIALLY AS RAIN INCREASES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH DAWN THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.40"
ACROSS CENTRAL/SERN VT...0.10-0.20" ACROSS RUTLAND COUNTY AND MUCH
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKING WET, ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE COVERING ALL
OF VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NY BY FIRST THING THURSDAY. AS THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SLOWLY START MOVING NORTHEAST, WE SHOULD SEE
AN AREA OF RAINFALL MOVE INTO NORTHERN VERMONT AND THEN BEGIN TO
PIVOT AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST. SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY. ANTICIPATE UPWARDS OF 1" OF RAIN IN AREAS
TOMORROW. BY THE TIME MOST OF THE RAIN WINDS DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY, WE ARE LOOKING FOR ABOUT 1.5" (MUCH LESS IN THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY) TOTALS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
FLOODING ISSUES.

HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY AS THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN. IN FACT, I TRIED TO INDICATE DIURNAL
SWINGS OF 5 DEGREES OR LESS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL FEATURE SLOW IMPROVEMENT AS THE
SLOW MOVING LOW SLOWLY PUSHES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE, AND WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA FOR 30-45% POPS AND A TON OF
CLOUDS. STILL LITTLE TEMPERATURE VARIATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AT 500 MB
FROM 12Z SATURDAY ONWARD. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA STARTING AT 12Z FOR A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND...BUT LOW
PRESSURE IN NW FLOW MOVING ACROSS OTTAWA WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS
PRESENCE FELT LATE SATURDAY. AREA STILL IN RELATIVELY WARM AIR AND
PRECIP TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD SURFACE AND
UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH DRY AND SEASONAL
CONDITIONS. TOWARD MID WEEK THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH THE NEXT
LOW TRACKING ALONG THE US CANADIAN BORDER AND SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT COMBO. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SURFACE
LOW MOVING NORTH OF FORECAST AREA...AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
BRINGING NEW CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS START OFF NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...THEN AS RIDGE
BUILDS IN TUESDAY TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN
THE WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IS REALLY DEVELOPING FAST
NOW AND WILL BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
WITH PREVAILINIG MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN FROM
EAST TO WEST ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO THAN LAST EVENING. BANDS OF RAIN ON
RADAR WILL BECOME GRADUALLY MORE NUMEROUS AND HAVE INDICATED WITH
TEMPO GROUPS OF RAIN SHOWERS THEN JUST PREVAILING RAIN BY MORNING.
WINDS WILL MAINLY NORTHERLY 8-15 KNOTS THRU THE PERIOD COULD BE A
LITTLE HIGHER AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN MVFR/IFR AS LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
FRI...IFR BECOMING MVFR/VFR WITH -SHRA AND N WINDS.
SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH PM SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SUN/MON...MVFR/LCL IFR WITH CLOUDS AND -SHRA VALLEYS AND -SHSN
MTNS UNDER CYCLONIC NW FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH LESS RAIN FALLING
TODAY THAN EARLIER EXPECTED, OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS BY FRIDAY
MORNING ARE LESS THAN WE THOUGHT AS OF A FEW DAYS AGO. GENERALLY
LOOKING AT ABOUT 1.5" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT (LOWER VALUES IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO RAIN SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS)
AND PERHAPS SPOT 2" AMOUNTS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL GREEN MOUNTAINS. OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AMOUNTS
WILL BE MUCH LESS 1/2" OR LESS. GIVEN THE RELATIVE LONG DURATION
OF RAINFALL AND THE BASE LEVEL RIVER FLOWS, WE CERTAINLY EXPECT
RIVER LEVELS TO RISE, BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TO GO OUT OF
THEIR BANKS. PERHAPS THE WORST WE`LL SEE IS SOME PONDING ON ROADS
WHERE DRAINAGES HAVE BEEN BLOCKED BY LEAVES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALL NIGHT, ALL DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY
EVENING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN, WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE.
STRONGEST OF THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE. THESE WINDS SHOULD GENERATE CHOPPY 2-3 FOOT
WAVES. AS A RESULT, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...SISSON
HYDROLOGY...NASH
MARINE...NASH




000
FXUS61 KALY 230152
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
952 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 950 PM EDT...BANDS OF RAIN CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL ACROSS THE
FA FROM EAST TO WEST WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER EMBEDDED BANDS NOW
MOVING TOWARDS THE HUDSON VALLEY ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A
DOUBLE BARREL SURFACE LOW IS EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND TO JUST OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS
SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP AND
AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. 850 HPA EASTERLY WIND
ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE TONIGHT...SHOWING AN
IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION. BOTH OUR LOCAL HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW
THE SHOWERS EVOLVING INTO A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL BY
LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 10
MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS AIR IS
FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG
THE HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE
GO PAST 06Z THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY COULD EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL
WITH IFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT.
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z
TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 00Z FRIDAY FOR ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM/11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 230152
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
952 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 950 PM EDT...BANDS OF RAIN CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL ACROSS THE
FA FROM EAST TO WEST WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER EMBEDDED BANDS NOW
MOVING TOWARDS THE HUDSON VALLEY ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A
DOUBLE BARREL SURFACE LOW IS EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND TO JUST OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS
SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP AND
AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. 850 HPA EASTERLY WIND
ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE TONIGHT...SHOWING AN
IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION. BOTH OUR LOCAL HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW
THE SHOWERS EVOLVING INTO A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL BY
LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 10
MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS AIR IS
FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG
THE HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE
GO PAST 06Z THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY COULD EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL
WITH IFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT.
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z
TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 00Z FRIDAY FOR ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM/11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 230008
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
808 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL
KEEP THE AREA IN A CLOUDY, DAMP AND COOL WEATHER PATTERN INTO
FRIDAY, THOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 718 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL NE-EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE OVERNIGHT/PRE-DAWN HOURS.
CLOUD CANOPY ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE LOW AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSES THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT GENERALLY LOOKING
AT MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER IS MORE EXTENSIVE WITH UPSLOPE COMPONENT EAST
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN SPINE THIS EVENING. COMPOSITE RADAR
REFLECTIVITY AT 2315UTC INDICATES BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE FROM EAST TO WEST FROM NH INTO VERMONT
OVERNIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AFTER MIDNIGHT. POP FIELDS DEPICT THIS INCREASE OF
POPS FROM EAST TO WEST. THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN DRY
FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH ACROSS THE REGION, NOR WILL
THEY DROP MUCH GIVEN NEAR SATURATION AND OVERCAST CONDITIONS. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S. SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EAST OF/ALONG THE GREENS...ESPECIALLY AS RAIN INCREASES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH DAWN THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.40"
ACROSS CENTRAL/SERN VT...0.10-0.20" ACROSS RUTLAND COUNTY AND MUCH
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKING WET, ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE COVERING ALL
OF VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NY BY FIRST THING THURSDAY. AS THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SLOWLY START MOVING NORTHEAST, WE SHOULD SEE
AN AREA OF RAINFALL MOVE INTO NORTHERN VERMONT AND THEN BEGIN TO
PIVOT AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST. SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY. ANTICIPATE UPWARDS OF 1" OF RAIN IN AREAS
TOMORROW. BY THE TIME MOST OF THE RAIN WINDS DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY, WE ARE LOOKING FOR ABOUT 1.5" (MUCH LESS IN THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY) TOTALS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
FLOODING ISSUES.

HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY AS THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN. IN FACT, I TRIED TO INDICATE DIURNAL
SWINGS OF 5 DEGREES OR LESS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL FEATURE SLOW IMPROVEMENT AS THE
SLOW MOVING LOW SLOWLY PUSHES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE, AND WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA FOR 30-45% POPS AND A TON OF
CLOUDS. STILL LITTLE TEMPERATURE VARIATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AT 500 MB
FROM 12Z SATURDAY ONWARD. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA STARTING AT 12Z FOR A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND...BUT LOW
PRESSURE IN NW FLOW MOVING ACROSS OTTAWA WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS
PRESENCE FELT LATE SATURDAY. AREA STILL IN RELATIVELY WARM AIR AND
PRECIP TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD SURFACE AND
UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH DRY AND SEASONAL
CONDITIONS. TOWARD MID WEEK THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH THE NEXT
LOW TRACKING ALONG THE US CANADIAN BORDER AND SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT COMBO. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SURFACE
LOW MOVING NORTH OF FORECAST AREA...AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
BRINGING NEW CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS START OFF NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...THEN AS RIDGE
BUILDS IN TUESDAY TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN
THE WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IS REALLY DEVELOPING FAST
NOW AND WILL BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
WITH PREVAILINIG MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN FROM
EAST TO WEST ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO THAN LAST EVENING. BANDS OF RAIN ON
RADAR WILL BECOME GRADUALLY MORE NUMEROUS AND HAVE INDICATED WITH
TEMPO GROUPS OF RAIN SHOWERS THEN JUST PREVAILING RAIN BY MORNING.
WINDS WILL MAINLY NORTHERLY 8-15 KNOTS THRU THE PERIOD COULD BE A
LITTLE HIGHER AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONNDAY...

00Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN MVFR/IFR AS LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
FRI...IFR BECOMING MVFR/VFR WITH -SHRA AND N WINDS.
SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH PM SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SUN/MON...MVFR/LCL IFR WITH CLOUDS AND -SHRA VALLEYS AND -SHSN
MTNS UNDER CYCLONIC NW FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH LESS RAIN FALLING
TODAY THAN EARLIER EXPECTED, OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS BY FRIDAY
MORNING ARE LESS THAN WE THOUGHT AS OF A FEW DAYS AGO. GENERALLY
LOOKING AT ABOUT 1.5" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT (LOWER VALUES IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO RAIN SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS)
AND PERHAPS SPOT 2" AMOUNTS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL GREEN MOUNTAINS. OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AMOUNTS
WILL BE MUCH LESS 1/2" OR LESS. GIVEN THE RELATIVE LONG DURATION
OF RAINFALL AND THE BASE LEVEL RIVER FLOWS, WE CERTAINLY EXPECT
RIVER LEVELS TO RISE, BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TO GO OUT OF
THEIR BANKS. PERHAPS THE WORST WE`LL SEE IS SOME PONDING ON ROADS
WHERE DRAINAGES HAVE BEEN BLOCKED BY LEAVES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALL NIGHT, ALL DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY
EVENING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN, WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE.
STRONGEST OF THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE. THESE WINDS SHOULD GENERATE CHOPPY 2-3 FOOT
WAVES. AS A RESULT, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...SISSON
HYDROLOGY...NASH
MARINE...NASH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 230008
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
808 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL
KEEP THE AREA IN A CLOUDY, DAMP AND COOL WEATHER PATTERN INTO
FRIDAY, THOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 718 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL NE-EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE OVERNIGHT/PRE-DAWN HOURS.
CLOUD CANOPY ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE LOW AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSES THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT GENERALLY LOOKING
AT MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER IS MORE EXTENSIVE WITH UPSLOPE COMPONENT EAST
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN SPINE THIS EVENING. COMPOSITE RADAR
REFLECTIVITY AT 2315UTC INDICATES BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE FROM EAST TO WEST FROM NH INTO VERMONT
OVERNIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AFTER MIDNIGHT. POP FIELDS DEPICT THIS INCREASE OF
POPS FROM EAST TO WEST. THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN DRY
FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH ACROSS THE REGION, NOR WILL
THEY DROP MUCH GIVEN NEAR SATURATION AND OVERCAST CONDITIONS. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S. SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EAST OF/ALONG THE GREENS...ESPECIALLY AS RAIN INCREASES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH DAWN THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.40"
ACROSS CENTRAL/SERN VT...0.10-0.20" ACROSS RUTLAND COUNTY AND MUCH
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKING WET, ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE COVERING ALL
OF VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NY BY FIRST THING THURSDAY. AS THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SLOWLY START MOVING NORTHEAST, WE SHOULD SEE
AN AREA OF RAINFALL MOVE INTO NORTHERN VERMONT AND THEN BEGIN TO
PIVOT AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST. SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY. ANTICIPATE UPWARDS OF 1" OF RAIN IN AREAS
TOMORROW. BY THE TIME MOST OF THE RAIN WINDS DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY, WE ARE LOOKING FOR ABOUT 1.5" (MUCH LESS IN THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY) TOTALS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
FLOODING ISSUES.

HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY AS THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN. IN FACT, I TRIED TO INDICATE DIURNAL
SWINGS OF 5 DEGREES OR LESS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL FEATURE SLOW IMPROVEMENT AS THE
SLOW MOVING LOW SLOWLY PUSHES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE, AND WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA FOR 30-45% POPS AND A TON OF
CLOUDS. STILL LITTLE TEMPERATURE VARIATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AT 500 MB
FROM 12Z SATURDAY ONWARD. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA STARTING AT 12Z FOR A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND...BUT LOW
PRESSURE IN NW FLOW MOVING ACROSS OTTAWA WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS
PRESENCE FELT LATE SATURDAY. AREA STILL IN RELATIVELY WARM AIR AND
PRECIP TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD SURFACE AND
UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH DRY AND SEASONAL
CONDITIONS. TOWARD MID WEEK THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH THE NEXT
LOW TRACKING ALONG THE US CANADIAN BORDER AND SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT COMBO. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SURFACE
LOW MOVING NORTH OF FORECAST AREA...AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
BRINGING NEW CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS START OFF NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...THEN AS RIDGE
BUILDS IN TUESDAY TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN
THE WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IS REALLY DEVELOPING FAST
NOW AND WILL BRING DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
WITH PREVAILINIG MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN FROM
EAST TO WEST ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO THAN LAST EVENING. BANDS OF RAIN ON
RADAR WILL BECOME GRADUALLY MORE NUMEROUS AND HAVE INDICATED WITH
TEMPO GROUPS OF RAIN SHOWERS THEN JUST PREVAILING RAIN BY MORNING.
WINDS WILL MAINLY NORTHERLY 8-15 KNOTS THRU THE PERIOD COULD BE A
LITTLE HIGHER AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONNDAY...

00Z THU - 12Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN MVFR/IFR AS LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
FRI...IFR BECOMING MVFR/VFR WITH -SHRA AND N WINDS.
SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH PM SHOWERS WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SUN/MON...MVFR/LCL IFR WITH CLOUDS AND -SHRA VALLEYS AND -SHSN
MTNS UNDER CYCLONIC NW FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH LESS RAIN FALLING
TODAY THAN EARLIER EXPECTED, OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS BY FRIDAY
MORNING ARE LESS THAN WE THOUGHT AS OF A FEW DAYS AGO. GENERALLY
LOOKING AT ABOUT 1.5" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT (LOWER VALUES IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO RAIN SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS)
AND PERHAPS SPOT 2" AMOUNTS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL GREEN MOUNTAINS. OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AMOUNTS
WILL BE MUCH LESS 1/2" OR LESS. GIVEN THE RELATIVE LONG DURATION
OF RAINFALL AND THE BASE LEVEL RIVER FLOWS, WE CERTAINLY EXPECT
RIVER LEVELS TO RISE, BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TO GO OUT OF
THEIR BANKS. PERHAPS THE WORST WE`LL SEE IS SOME PONDING ON ROADS
WHERE DRAINAGES HAVE BEEN BLOCKED BY LEAVES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALL NIGHT, ALL DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY
EVENING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN, WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE.
STRONGEST OF THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE. THESE WINDS SHOULD GENERATE CHOPPY 2-3 FOOT
WAVES. AS A RESULT, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...SISSON
HYDROLOGY...NASH
MARINE...NASH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 222332
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
732 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL
KEEP THE AREA IN A CLOUDY, DAMP AND COOL WEATHER PATTERN INTO
FRIDAY, THOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 718 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL NE-EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE OVERNIGHT/PRE-DAWN HOURS.
CLOUD CANOPY ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE LOW AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSES THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT GENERALLY LOOKING
AT MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER IS MORE EXTENSIVE WITH UPSLOPE COMPONENT EAST
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN SPINE THIS EVENING. COMPOSITE RADAR
REFLECTIVITY AT 2315UTC INDICATES BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE FROM EAST TO WEST FROM NH INTO VERMONT
OVERNIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AFTER MIDNIGHT. POP FIELDS DEPICT THIS INCREASE OF
POPS FROM EAST TO WEST. THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN DRY
FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH ACROSS THE REGION, NOR WILL
THEY DROP MUCH GIVEN NEAR SATURATION AND OVERCAST CONDITIONS. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S. SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EAST OF/ALONG THE GREENS...ESPECIALLY AS RAIN INCREASES
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH DAWN THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 0.20-0.40"
ACROSS CENTRAL/SERN VT...0.10-0.20" ACROSS RUTLAND COUNTY AND MUCH
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKING WET, ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE COVERING ALL
OF VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NY BY FIRST THING THURSDAY. AS THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SLOWLY START MOVING NORTHEAST, WE SHOULD SEE
AN AREA OF RAINFALL MOVE INTO NORTHERN VERMONT AND THEN BEGIN TO
PIVOT AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST. SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY. ANTICIPATE UPWARDS OF 1" OF RAIN IN AREAS
TOMORROW. BY THE TIME MOST OF THE RAIN WINDS DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY, WE ARE LOOKING FOR ABOUT 1.5" (MUCH LESS IN THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY) TOTALS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
FLOODING ISSUES.

HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY AS THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN. IN FACT, I TRIED TO INDICATE DIURNAL
SWINGS OF 5 DEGREES OR LESS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL FEATURE SLOW IMPROVEMENT AS THE
SLOW MOVING LOW SLOWLY PUSHES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE, AND WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA FOR 30-45% POPS AND A TON OF
CLOUDS. STILL LITTLE TEMPERATURE VARIATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AT 500 MB
FROM 12Z SATURDAY ONWARD. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA STARTING AT 12Z FOR A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND...BUT LOW
PRESSURE IN NW FLOW MOVING ACROSS OTTAWA WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS
PRESENCE FELT LATE SATURDAY. AREA STILL IN RELATIVELY WARM AIR AND
PRECIP TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD SURFACE AND
UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH DRY AND SEASONAL
CONDITIONS. TOWARD MID WEEK THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH THE NEXT
LOW TRACKING ALONG THE US CANADIAN BORDER AND SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT COMBO. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SURFACE
LOW MOVING NORTH OF FORECAST AREA...AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
BRINGING NEW CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS START OFF NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...THEN AS RIDGE
BUILDS IN TUESDAY TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN
THE WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STABLE PERSISTENT CONDITIONS ALL MORNING...MAINLY MVFR/IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS AND VFR VSBYS WILL EVENTUALLY DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS RAIN
BAND ADVECTS NW INTO FA. IFR-LIFR CIGS AND VFR-MVFR-IFR VSBYS TNGT
AND THU. NNE WINDS WILL IN THE 8-15 KNOT RANGE THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z THURS - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS WITH PREVAILING
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH LESS RAIN FALLING
TODAY THAN EARLIER EXPECTED, OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS BY FRIDAY
MORNING ARE LESS THAN WE THOUGHT AS OF A FEW DAYS AGO. GENERALLY
LOOKING AT ABOUT 1.5" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT (LOWER VALUES IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO RAIN SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS)
AND PERHAPS SPOT 2" AMOUNTS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL GREEN MOUNTAINS. OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AMOUNTS
WILL BE MUCH LESS 1/2" OR LESS. GIVEN THE RELATIVE LONG DURATION
OF RAINFALL AND THE BASE LEVEL RIVER FLOWS, WE CERTAINLY EXPECT
RIVER LEVELS TO RISE, BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TO GO OUT OF
THEIR BANKS. PERHAPS THE WORST WE`LL SEE IS SOME PONDING ON ROADS
WHERE DRAINAGES HAVE BEEN BLOCKED BY LEAVES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALL NIGHT, ALL DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY
EVENING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN, WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE.
STRONGEST OF THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE. THESE WINDS SHOULD GENERATE CHOPPY 2-3 FOOT
WAVES. AS A RESULT, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...SLW
HYDROLOGY...NASH
MARINE...NASH




000
FXUS61 KALY 222309
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
709 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 610 PM EDT...BOTH A SFC LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
SITUATED JUST OFF THE DELMARVA REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOWLY
DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP AND AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. SOME SHOWERS HAVE MOVED FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTN...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. 850 HPA
EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE
TONIGHT...SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. BOTH OUR
LOCAL HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW THE SHOWERS EVOLVING INTO A
STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL BY LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 10 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS AIR IS FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN.
RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
BRIEF PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG
THE HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE
GO PAST 06Z THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY COULD EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL
WITH IFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT.
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z
TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 00Z FRIDAY FOR ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM/11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 222309
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
709 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 610 PM EDT...BOTH A SFC LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
SITUATED JUST OFF THE DELMARVA REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOWLY
DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP AND AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. SOME SHOWERS HAVE MOVED FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTN...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. 850 HPA
EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE
TONIGHT...SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. BOTH OUR
LOCAL HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW THE SHOWERS EVOLVING INTO A
STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL BY LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 10 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS AIR IS FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN.
RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
BRIEF PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG
THE HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE
GO PAST 06Z THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY COULD EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL
WITH IFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT.
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z
TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 00Z FRIDAY FOR ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM/11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 222212
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
612 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 610 PM EDT...BOTH A SFC LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
SITUATED JUST OFF THE DELMARVA REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOWLY
DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP AND AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. SOME SHOWERS HAVE MOVED FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTN...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. 850 HPA
EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE
TONIGHT...SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. BOTH OUR
LOCAL HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW THE SHOWERS EVOLVING INTO A
STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL BY LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 10 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS AIR IS FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN.
RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
BRIEF PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRAWLING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE
DELMARVA WILL PROVIDE A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE...ESPECIALLY
AS WE GO PAST 00Z THURSDAY. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG THE HUDSON
VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE GO PAST 06Z
THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY COULD
EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT. NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z TO THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 222212
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
612 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 610 PM EDT...BOTH A SFC LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
SITUATED JUST OFF THE DELMARVA REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOWLY
DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP AND AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. SOME SHOWERS HAVE MOVED FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTN...AND THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. 850 HPA
EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE
TONIGHT...SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. BOTH OUR
LOCAL HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW THE SHOWERS EVOLVING INTO A
STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL BY LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 10 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS AIR IS FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN.
RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
BRIEF PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRAWLING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE
DELMARVA WILL PROVIDE A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE...ESPECIALLY
AS WE GO PAST 00Z THURSDAY. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG THE HUDSON
VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE GO PAST 06Z
THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY COULD
EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT. NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z TO THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 222014
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
414 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL
KEEP THE AREA IN A CLOUDY, DAMP AND COOL WEATHER PATTERN INTO
FRIDAY, THOUGH SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...DEEPENING/STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW
IS ACROSS THE REGION, RESULTING IN PRETTY MUCH CLOUDY SKIES
EVERYWHERE. THERE ARE A FEW EXCEPTIONS -- THANKS TO SOME
DOWNSLOPING, THERE WERE PEEKS OF SUN ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE NORTHERN GREENS. SOME DRIER AIR JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER IS
ALLOWING FOR A FEW BREAKS UP THERE AS WELL, AT LEAST PER SATELLITE
IMAGES. HOWEVER, DEEPER/COLDER CLOUD TOPS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND AND ARE SPREADING NORTHWEST. RADAR SHOWS
RAIN EXPANDING IN COVERAGE DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF HERE.
ALL 12Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT EVENTUALLY THIS MOISTURE
WILL MOVE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN THE POP FIELDS, I TRIED TO DEPICT THIS
INCREASE OF POPS FROM EAST TO WEST. IN FACT, OUT IN THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY THEY SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT RISEN ALL THAT MUCH TODAY DUE TO THE CLOUDS,
AND THEY WILL NOT FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT. DID FOLLOW PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRENDS TO GO WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE SO LOOK FOR 40S
FOR PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE. JUST TOO WARM ALOFT AS WELL FOR ANY
SNOW AT THE HIGH ELEVATIONS. CURRENTLY THE LOW/MID 30S AT
WHITEFACE AND MANSFIELD, AND EXPECT THE TEMPERATURE TO SLOWLY RISE
OVERNIGHT AS THE EAST FLOW ADVECTS IN WARMER ATLANTIC AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...STILL LOOKING WET, ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE COVERING ALL
OF VERMONT AND MUCH OF NORTHERN NY BY FIRST THING THURSDAY. AS THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SLOWLY START MOVING NORTHEAST, WE SHOULD SEE
AN AREA OF RAINFALL MOVE INTO NORTHERN VERMONT AND THEN BEGIN TO
PIVOT AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST. SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO
PERHAPS BRIEFLY HEAVY. ANTICIPATE UPWARDS OF 1" OF RAIN IN AREAS
TOMORROW. BY THE TIME MOST OF THE RAIN WINDS DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY, WE ARE LOOKING FOR ABOUT 1.5" (MUCH LESS IN THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY) TOTALS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
FLOODING ISSUES.

HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY AS THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN. IN FACT, I TRIED TO INDICATE DIURNAL
SWINGS OF 5 DEGREES OR LESS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL FEATURE SLOW IMPROVEMENT AS THE
SLOW MOVING LOW SLOWLY PUSHES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE, AND WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND, HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA FOR 30-45% POPS AND A TON OF
CLOUDS. STILL LITTLE TEMPERATURE VARIATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AT 500 MB
FROM 12Z SATURDAY ONWARD. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA STARTING AT 12Z FOR A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND...BUT LOW
PRESSURE IN NW FLOW MOVING ACROSS OTTAWA WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS
PRESENCE FELT LATE SATURDAY. AREA STILL IN RELATIVELY WARM AIR AND
PRECIP TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD SURFACE AND
UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH DRY AND SEASONAL
CONDITIONS. TOWARD MID WEEK THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH THE NEXT
LOW TRACKING ALONG THE US CANADIAN BORDER AND SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT COMBO. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SURFACE
LOW MOVING NORTH OF FORECAST AREA...AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
BRINGING NEW CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS START OFF NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...THEN AS RIDGE
BUILDS IN TUESDAY TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN
THE WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STABLE PERSISTENT CONDITIONS ALL MORNING...MAINLY MVFR/IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS AND VFR VSBYS WILL EVENTUALLY DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS RAIN
BAND ADVECTS NW INTO FA. IFR-LIFR CIGS AND VFR-MVFR-IFR VSBYS TNGT
AND THU. NNE WINDS WILL IN THE 8-15 KNOT RANGE THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z THURS - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS WITH PREVAILING
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH LESS RAIN FALLING
TODAY THAN EARLIER EXPECTED, OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS BY FRIDAY
MORNING ARE LESS THAN WE THOUGHT AS OF A FEW DAYS AGO. GENERALLY
LOOKING AT ABOUT 1.5" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT (LOWER VALUES IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO RAIN SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS)
AND PERHAPS SPOT 2" AMOUNTS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL GREEN MOUNTAINS. OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AMOUNTS
WILL BE MUCH LESS 1/2" OR LESS. GIVEN THE RELATIVE LONG DURATION
OF RAINFALL AND THE BASE LEVEL RIVER FLOWS, WE CERTAINLY EXPECT
RIVER LEVELS TO RISE, BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TO GO OUT OF
THEIR BANKS. PERHAPS THE WORST WE`LL SEE IS SOME PONDING ON ROADS
WHERE DRAINAGES HAVE BEEN BLOCKED BY LEAVES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALL NIGHT, ALL DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY
EVENING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN, WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE.
STRONGEST OF THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE. THESE WINDS SHOULD GENERATE CHOPPY 2-3 FOOT
WAVES. AS A RESULT, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...SLW
HYDROLOGY...NASH
MARINE...NASH




000
FXUS61 KALY 222000
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
400 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT...BOTH A SFC LOW AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
SITUATED JUST OFF THE VIRGINA CAPES/DELMARVA. THIS SYSTEM IS
SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP AND
AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. SOME SHOWERS HAVE MOVED
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTN...AND THIS LOOKS
TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. 850 HPA
EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE TONIGHT...SHOWING
AN IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION. BOTH OUR LOCAL HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW
THE SHOWERS EVOLVING INTO A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL BY
LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 10
MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS AIR IS
FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE
RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY.

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRAWLING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE
DELMARVA WILL PROVIDE A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE...ESPECIALLY
AS WE GO PAST 00Z THURSDAY. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG THE HUDSON
VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE GO PAST 06Z
THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY COULD
EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT. NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z TO THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 221928
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
328 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
SPREADS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1051 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY, COOL AND A BIT DAMP ACROSS
THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING AND THE GOING FORECAST HAS THAT
COVERED QUITE WELL. RADAR SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
VERMONT EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN NY, ALL TRAVELLING
WESTWARD AS THE EASTERLY FLOW DEEPENS. LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM
(WHICH FOR TODAY IS TO THE EAST!) RADAR SHOWS A LARGER BLOB OF
RAIN MOVING ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHERN MAINE AND INTO CENTRAL NH.
SOME OF THIS RAIN LOOKS TO BE OCCASIONALLY MODERATE. ANTICIPATE
THAT TO PUSH INTO EASTERN VERMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON, SO
CONTINUING THE BASICALLY 100% POPS LOOKS GOOD. LESSER CHANCES OF
RAIN THE FARTHER WEST ONE GOSE.

ALL IN ALL MINIMAL TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES MAY RISE
ANOTHER 1-2 DEGREES FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 453 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED
ABOVE SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TONIGHT...A LARGER SWATH OF RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL BE STEADIER IN NATURE RIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS ALSO THE TIME PERIOD WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS...THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
EVENTUALLY OVER THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS WINDS GO FROM
EAST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST. THUS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE WHEN WE SEE THE MOST ACCUMULATING RAINFALL. STILL LOOKING
AT A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL WITH UPSLOPE REGIONS GETTING
AS HIGH AS 2.25 TO 2.50 INCHES. RIVER LEVELS REMAIN LOW AND GIVEN
THE LONGER DURATION OF THE RAINFALL TO REACH THESE HIGHER
LEVELS...FLOODING ON THE LARGER RIVERS IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...RISES WILL BE NOTICEABLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE
SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS. THUS THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. EVENTUALLY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AT 500 MB
FROM 12Z SATURDAY ONWARD. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA STARTING AT 12Z FOR A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND...BUT LOW
PRESSURE IN NW FLOW MOVING ACROSS OTTAWA WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS
PRESENCE FELT LATE SATURDAY. AREA STILL IN RELATIVELY WARM AIR AND
PRECIP TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD SURFACE AND
UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH DRY AND SEASONAL
CONDITIONS. TOWARD MID WEEK THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH THE NEXT
LOW TRACKING ALONG THE US CANADIAN BORDER AND SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT COMBO. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SURFACE
LOW MOVING NORTH OF FORECAST AREA...AND TRAILING COLD FRONT
BRINGING NEW CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS START OFF NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...THEN AS RIDGE
BUILDS IN TUESDAY TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN
THE WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STABLE PERSISTENT CONDITIONS ALL MORNING...MAINLY MVFR/IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS AND VFR VSBYS WILL EVENTUALLY DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS RAIN
BAND ADVECTS NW INTO FA. IFR-LIFR CIGS AND VFR-MVFR-IFR VSBYS TNGT
AND THU. NNE WINDS WILL IN THE 8-15 KNOT RANGE THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z THURS - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS WITH PREVAILING
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY HAS ALL BUT COME TO AND END
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT WHERE LIGHT
SHOWERS EXISTED. EVENTUALLY WE WILL SEE THE DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOP AND RAIN SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. THE STEADIEST RAINS WILL BE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
THEN PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF ON FRIDAY. STILL LOOKING
AT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN FOR MOST AREAS WITH UP TO 2.5 INCHES
ALONG THE EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY. LARGER RIVERS REMAIN WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND THE LONGER
DURATION OF RAINFALL TO GET TO THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SUGGESTS THAT
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
SHARP RISES ON AREA WATERWAYS...ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER RIVERS AND
STREAMS. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...SLW
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON




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