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000
FXUS61 KBTV 301940
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
340 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front will finally push across the area today bringing
additional showers for today and cooler temperatures for the next
few days. Dry conditions are expected Tuesday through Thursday
with high temperatures generally in the mid to upper 70s and lower
humidity levels.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 138 PM EDT Monday...A fair weather CU field has now
developed over the northern Adirondacks as the airmass continues
to become unstable. Expect some isolated pulse style showers to
develop in the vicinity of the advancing cold front leading to
some potential brief rainfall and gusty winds. There were no
significant changes to the forecast. To all those who served and
paid the ultimate price, we honor and remember you this Memorial
Day.

Previous discussion as of 724 AM EDT Monday...A surface cold
front will push across our forecast area today. We will have some
showers in our area, mainly across southern and eastern Vermont.
Scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms can be
expected. Temperatures will be more mild than yesterday, therefore
instability will be limited. There should be enough unstable air
to have a few isolated thunderstorms though not mentioning
enhanced wording at this time. Best threat will be central into
South central Vermont. BTV4 and HRRR both showing a line develop
this afternoon around 18z near the Champlain valley and then
pushing eastward through 00z. Maximum temperatures today will be
in the lower to mid 80s. Drier air will move into the region
overnight behind departing cold front. Min temperatures will be in
the mid 50s to around 60. Any showers remaining will die down with
loss of daytime heating.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 PM EDT Monday...A ridge of high pressure at the surface
and aloft will build east from the Great Lakes through the period
with fair and dry weather expected. Highs will be in the 70s on
Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night will be mainly in the 40s to the
lower 50s. Lows Wednesday night will be mainly into 50s, except in
the 40s over the Adirondacks and northeast Vermont.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 340 PM EDT Monday...Models showing some differences on
Thursday, with the GFS model trying to bring some rain showers
into northern New York on Thursday. The ECMWF model keeps the
region dry on Thursday, as the upper ridge over the region slows
done the progression of the cold front from the western Great
Lakes. Prefer the slower ECMWF solution at this time and will keep
a dry forecast for Thursday. GFS and ECMWF models in good
agreement in bring rain showers into the region Thursday night and
Friday. Models suggesting a mainly dry forecast for Saturday and
Saturday night. Have only gone with slight chance pops for
Saturday, and dry Saturday night.

ECMWF and GFS models showing some differences for Sunday and
Monday, with the GFS model showing a closed upper low over the
Great Lakes Sunday and Monday. The ECMWF model showing just an
upper trough over the region Sunday and Monday. However, both
models showing a chance of showers for Sunday and Monday, so have
gone with super-blend chance pops for Sunday through Monday.

Generally expecting seasonable temperatures through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 18z Tuesday...Expect VFR to prevail through the daylight
hours today. Expect some scattered to isolated showers possible
for the Vermont terminals this afternoon but the lack of areal
coverage meant that I left mention of showers out of the taf`s for
all sites except MPV. Surface winds becoming generally S-SW 10-15
kts late morning through the afternoon hours then become light
overnight. Due to the orientation of the winds and quite steep
lapse rates the Saint Lawrence valley will continue to see gusty
15-20kt winds until the cold front passes through this evening.
Late night there may be from fog developing at both MPV and SLK
due to the winds going calm and the residual moisture from
yesterday and potential rain that falls today.

Outlook 18z Tuesday through Saturday...
Primarily VFR TUE-THU with just a chance of late night fog each
night at SLK/MPV mainly 07-11Z. Next frontal system and attendant
upper level trough approaching from the Great Lakes region will
bring a chance for showers Thursday night into Friday with brief
intervals of MVFR to IFR possible associated with rainfall.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Deal/Neiles
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Deal/Neiles



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000
FXUS61 KALY 301759
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
159 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system and its associated cold front will
cross this afternoon. A cooler and drier airmass will be ushered in
Monday night into Tuesday in the wake of the system. High pressure
will remain in control through early Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 116 PM EDT...A cold front continues to approach from
western/central NY and the eastern Great Lakes Region early this
afternoon. Clouds have been eroding across eastern portions of the
area, which were mostly cloudy through much of the morning.
Showers still have not developed as of 1 pm, so delayed timing of
onset of any precip until after 2 pm.

Sfc dewpts continue to be in the 60s ahead of the cold front, and
some destabilization will occur with the NAM indicating SBCAPES in
the 1000-2000 J/kg range. The deep shear /0-6 km/ is in the 30-35
kt range. Some multicells or a multicell line may fire from around
or just southeast of the Capital Region...southern VT...and the
eastern Catskills between 2-5 pm. The latest HRRR indicates the
best activity will be around and south of the Capital Region,
focusing more in the mid-Hudson Valley, Berkshires and NW CT from
5-8 pm. Some locally heavy rainfall is still possible with PWATS
in the 1.25-1.75" range. Gusty winds will be a threat and perhaps
a rogue severe storm or two with 50 kt or greater winds. The
limiter is weak mid level lapse rates...and perhaps limited time
for southern NY to destabilize. The marginal risk continues to
look reasonable for this afternoon from SPC. Highs will generally
be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. A few mid 80s will be possible in
the Hudson River Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Well folks, this will be my last AFD I will ever issue. It is hard
to believe the time has come for me to retire. It has been a
pleasure serving the public and community since April 4, 1995, the
first day I worked at Albany.

The actual cold front still does not look to clear our region until
the evening hours tonight, perhaps with a stray shower. However,
most if not all the forcing and deep moisture should be gone by this
time so only low or slight pops from the Capital region southward.

Drier and slightly cooler air will allow temperatures to settle back
into the 50s across most areas overnight, with lows around 60 in the
immediate Capital region and further south. A light breeze should
preclude the formation of any fog, even with a partly cloudy sky.

Tuesday and Wednesday both look like great days as high pressure
builds over us from southern Canada. H850 temps look to cool to
around +12C. With good mixing, we are still looking for highs
slightly above normal, but dewpoints lower to the 50s. There looks
to be ample sunshine each day. The wind will be northwest 5-15 mph
on Tuesday with a few higher gusts, light and variable on Wednesday.

Look for highs around 80 in the valleys both days, lower to mid 70s
higher terrain. Lows Wednesday night in the 50s.

Thursday will start out dry. The 00Z GFS brings QPF to much of the
region by late in the day, while the 00Z European (ECMWF) and
Canadian models are slower keeping the day dry. We lean with the
drier solution so we kept Thursday dry as well with some increasing
in clouds and humidity as a south breeze picking up to 5-15 mph.

By Thursday a weak cold front and a weak upper trough approach
possibly bringing us some showers. However, the 12Z ECMWF bring very
little QPF Thursday night as most moisture from this system looks to
get robbed by what will be lift from Tropical Depression Bonnie
which is forecast to slide of the mid Atlantic coast and not impact
our region.

Lows on Thursday night look to be around 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The long term looks somewhat unsettled as all models indicate a
broad trough will replace the ridge that has been over us. However,
there discrepancies between the 00Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF. The GFS is
much more aggressive developing a deeper trough with a cutoff low
over the Great Lakes, meandering to our region. This setup look to
bring a rather wet pattern over our region during this time frame.

The ECMWF is more progressive, keep the trough a bit flatter
initially, eventually developing a cutoff low further north over
southern Canada. While not completely, this solution brings less
rain to our region as the good forcing remains mainly north of the
region.

While the ECMWF often turns out be more accurate, it is too early to
completely rule out the wetter GFS solution so for now, we took a
middle approach. Either way, pops are warranted for Friday as some
sort of the low pressure system/mid level trough looks to approach
our region. If the ECMWF solution is correct, Saturday could turn
out dry, although the GFS lingers showers over our region. For now,
went slight chance for pops on Saturday.

By Sunday another disturbance associated with a still deepening
trough approaches, so chances of showers look reasonable. We
continue with slight chances of thunder as well.

Temperatures during the extended period look to be close to
seasonable levels for early June, perhaps trending a little below
normal. This will translate to highs in the 70s and lows mainly
in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front continues to move across western and central NY this
afternoon. This front will move across eastern NY and western New
England late this afternoon into the overnight period. High
pressure will ridge in late tonight into tomorrow with fair and
dry weather returning.

VFR conditions have returned to all the TAF sites in the wake of
the pre-frontal trough this morning. KPOU has now become VFR and
the skies have started to clear. Expect SCT-BKN cumulus in the
3.5-5 kft AGL range and SCT-BKN cirrus with some isold-sct
showers and thunderstorms especially from KALB-KPSF south and east
btwn 20Z/MON to 00Z/TUE. The best chance of thunderstorms will be
at KPSF and KPOU and a tempo group was used from 21Z-24Z for MVFR
conditions...though brief lapses to IFR VSBYS are possible.
Further north...VCSH groups were used. The cold front moves
through in the evening...and the skies clear.

The dewpt boundary lags a bit...so moisture left in the boundary
layer coupled with clearing skies...and light to calm winds will
allow for some MVFR/IFR mist or fog potentially at KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
especially btwn 06Z-12Z. Enough mixing in the boundary layer may
preclude any mist at KALB. VFR conditions should return after 12Z
with strong subsidence and deeper mixing in the wake of the front.

The winds will be south to southwest at 6-12 kts this afternoon
with some gusts close to 20 kts at KGFL. The winds will become
light to calm btwn 00Z-04Z. The winds will increase quickly from
the west to northwest at 5-10 kts from 12Z onward.

Outlook...

Tuesday-Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered showers today and possibly a few afternoon thunderstorms.
However much of the day will be rainfree. RH values will remain
elevated. A south wind will become southwest to west later on this
afternoon, 5- 15 mph.

A cold front will cross the region through this evening, allowing a
return to more seasonable temperatures and humidity levels.

Dry weather Tuesday through Thursday with nearly full recoveries
each and every night. It will be a bit breezy on Tuesday with a
northwest wind 10-15 mph, with gusts to near 25 mph. The wind will
be light and variable on Wednesday, south 5-15 mph on Thursday. The
wind each night look light or calm.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Some localities received up to a couple of inches of rainfall on
Sunday but that was the exception not the rule. Average basin
rainfalls were generally a quarter inch or less. Large rivers were
not affect much by the rain.

More scattered showers today and again some of these could very
locally heavy. They could produce some ponding and maybe some urban
minor flooding but not real impact is expected on rivers and
streams.


With the passage of the low pressure system dry weather will return
Tuesday. High pressure is then expected to build in with the dry
weather continuing through the middle of the week. The next chances
for rain will return late in the week and for the weekend as a low
pressure system approaches.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/Wasula
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV/Wasula
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301751
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
151 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front will finally push across the area today bringing
additional showers for today and cooler temperatures for the next
few days. Dry conditions are expected Tuesday through Thursday
with high temperatures generally in the mid to upper 70s and lower
humidity levels.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
As of 138 PM EDT Monday...A fair weather CU field has now
developed over the northern Adirondacks as the airmass continues
to become unstable. Expect some isolated pulse style showers to
develop in the vicinity of the advancing cold front leading to
some potential brief rainfall and gusty winds. There were no
significant changes to the forecast. To all those who served and
paid the ultimate price, we honor and remember you this Memorial
Day.

Previous discussion as of 724 AM EDT Monday...A surface cold
front will push across our forecast area today. We will have some
showers in our area, mainly across southern and eastern Vermont.
Scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms can be
expected. Temperatures will be more mild than yesterday, therefore
instability will be limited. There should be enough unstable air
to have a few isolated thunderstorms though not mentioning
enhanced wording at this time. Best threat will be central into
South central Vermont. BTV4 and HRRR both showing a line develop
this afternoon around 18z near the Champlain valley and then
pushing eastward through 00z. Maximum temperatures today will be
in the lower to mid 80s. Drier air will move into the region
overnight behind departing cold front. Min temperatures will be in
the mid 50s to around 60. Any showers remaining will die down with
loss of daytime heating.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 335 AM EDT Monday...Quiet, seasonably mild weather is then
expected for the Tuesday through Thursday time frame with surface
high pressure being the dominant weather feature. Other than a
passing sprinkle or light shower across the northern Green
Mountains on Tuesday with a passing upper shortwave trough, dry
weather is expected through the period. Daily high temperatures
will range from the mid 70s to lower 80s with overnight lows
generally in the 45 to 55 range with some variability.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 335 AM EDT Monday...By later in the week there is
increasing confidence that we`ll return to an on and off showery
regime as a series of shortwave troughs/fronts push into the
region. There is broad agreement among this morning`s models that
a weakening frontal zone will limp into the region by Thursday
night into Friday before washing out is it presses east by next
Saturday. Given the current consensus will maintain forecast
continuity offering chance pops for showers during this period
with little airmass change expected.

Thereafter confidence lowers in regard to potential development
of a larger-scale longwave trough or closed upper system to our
northwest and its eventual eastward movement/potential impacts.
Teleconnections and latest ensemble output does suggest
amplification of western conus ridging which would tend to foster
lowering heights/troughing from the upper Midwest/Great Lakes
eastward from Sunday onward into next week. However, deterministic
output remains at odds on how deep this feature will be, the
degree to which it digs south and east over time and what
interaction, if any it has with deeper moisture across the mid-
Atlantic/southeast. Given at least the broader consensus in this
overall troughing scenario will bring solid chance pops for
showers and possibly a few storms by later Sunday onward into next
Monday. Temperatures should remain within a few degrees of
seasonable levels with daily highs in the 70s and overnight lows
mainly in the 45 to 55 range.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 18z Tuesday...Expect VFR to prevail through the daylight
hours today. Expect some scattered to isolated showers possible
for the Vermont terminals this afternoon but the lack of areal
coverage meant that I left mention of showers out of the taf`s for
all sites except MPV. Surface winds becoming generally S-SW 10-15
kts late morning through the afternoon hours then become light
overnight. Due to the orientation of the winds and quite steep
lapse rates the Saint Lawrence valley will continue to see gusty
15-20kt winds until the cold front passes through this evening.
Late night there may be from fog developing at both MPV and SLK
due to the winds going calm and the residual moisture from
yesterday and potential rain that falls today.

Outlook 18z Tuesday through Saturday...
Primarily VFR TUE-THU with just a chance of late night fog each
night at SLK/MPV mainly 07-11Z. Next frontal system and attendant
upper level trough approaching from the Great Lakes region will
bring a chance for showers Thursday night into Friday with brief
intervals of MVFR to IFR possible associated with rainfall.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Deal/Neiles
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Deal/Neiles




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301457
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1057 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front will finally push across the area today bringing
additional showers for today and cooler temperatures for the next
few days. Dry conditions are expected Tuesday through Thursday
with high temperatures generally in the mid to upper 70s and lower
humidity levels.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
As of 1050 AM EDT Monday...A much cooler start to Memorial Day
than yesterday with most areas just warming up to the low to mid
70s by 11am. The stable marine layer over eastern Vermont is
finally pushing east and so I anticipate warming there from the
low to mid 60s into the upper 70s to low 80s with peak heating
today. We currently are positioned in a dry slot between the
marine layer to the east and the advancing cold front over the
Great Lakes. That dry slot has lead to clearing for most of the
North Country with only a few clouds in the skies across Northern
New York and the Champlain Valley. The current forecast is in good
shape with no changes needed. Enjoy your Memorial Day.

Previous discussion as of 724 AM EDT Monday...A surface cold
front will push across our forecast area today. We will have some
showers in our area, mainly across southern and eastern Vermont.
Scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms can be
expected. Temperatures will be more mild than yesterday, therefore
instability will be limited. There should be enough unstable air
to have a few isolated thunderstorms though not mentioning
enhanced wording at this time. Best threat will be central into
South central Vermont. BTV4 and HRRR both showing a line develop
this afternoon around 18z near the Champlain valley and then
pushing eastward through 00z. Maximum temperatures today will be
in the lower to mid 80s. Drier air will move into the region
overnight behind departing cold front. Min temperatures will be in
the mid 50s to around 60. Any showers remaining will die down with
loss of daytime heating.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 335 AM EDT Monday...Quiet, seasonably mild weather is then
expected for the Tuesday through Thursday time frame with surface
high pressure being the dominant weather feature. Other than a
passing sprinkle or light shower across the northern Green
Mountains on Tuesday with a passing upper shortwave trough, dry
weather is expected through the period. Daily high temperatures
will range from the mid 70s to lower 80s with overnight lows
generally in the 45 to 55 range with some variability.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 335 AM EDT Monday...By later in the week there is
increasing confidence that we`ll return to an on and off showery
regime as a series of shortwave troughs/fronts push into the
region. There is broad agreement among this morning`s models that
a weakening frontal zone will limp into the region by Thursday
night into Friday before washing out is it presses east by next
Saturday. Given the current consensus will maintain forecast
continuity offering chance pops for showers during this period
with little airmass change expected.

Thereafter confidence lowers in regard to potential development
of a larger-scale longwave trough or closed upper system to our
northwest and its eventual eastward movement/potential impacts.
Teleconnections and latest ensemble output does suggest
amplification of western conus ridging which would tend to foster
lowering heights/troughing from the upper Midwest/Great Lakes
eastward from Sunday onward into next week. However, deterministic
output remains at odds on how deep this feature will be, the
degree to which it digs south and east over time and what
interaction, if any it has with deeper moisture across the mid-
Atlantic/southeast. Given at least the broader consensus in this
overall troughing scenario will bring solid chance pops for
showers and possibly a few storms by later Sunday onward into next
Monday. Temperatures should remain within a few degrees of
seasonable levels with daily highs in the 70s and overnight lows
mainly in the 45 to 55 range.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 12z Tuesday...Generally VFR for the daylight hours today.
May see some additional showers/isolated thunderstorms with peak
afternoon heating...with best chance of thunderstorms development
across central and s-central VT. Surface winds becoming generally
S-SW 10-15 kts late morning through the afternoon hours then
become light overnight.

Outlook 12z Tuesday through Friday...Primarily VFR TUE-THU with
just a chance of late night fog each night at SLK/MPV mainly
07-11Z. Next frontal system and attendant upper level trough
approaching from the Great Lakes region will bring a chance for
showers Thursday night into Friday with brief intervals of MVFR to
IFR possible associated with rainfall.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Deal/Neiles
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Neiles




000
FXUS61 KALY 300922
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
525 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system and its associated cold front will cross our
region later today. A cooler and drier airmass will be ushered in
Monday night into Tuesday in the wake of the system. High pressure
will remain in control through early Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 400 AM EDT...Another batch of moderate to locally heavy rain
was working quickly across Litchfield county, but otherwise to our
east and fairly quickly moving further east. More scattered showers
were upstream but to far our west, already some drying and partial
clearing was noted.

A cold front working through the eastern Great Lakes and eastern
Ohio valley was moving to the east.

Temperatures ranged from the lower 60s to around 70 throughout our
region. They will only drop a few more points due to increase cloud
cover preventing much additional cooling. So lows mainly in the 60s
across the region, upper 60s locally in the Capital region...with
some upper 50s across the Adirondacks.

After sunrise, a theta-e ridge will shift to our east, as well as
the 2.0 inch PWATs over our region earlier. Drier air in the mid
levels looks as it will actually reduce shower activity this morning
to widely scattered or isolated. The day will still start of
cloudy, but a lot of the lower clouds should dissipate by midday.

Still, with the cold front upstream, SBCAPE values look to ramp up
to 500-1000 J/KG...highest to the southeast of the Capital region.
Even with modest lapse rates, a bulk shear of around 30 KTS should
be enough to develop some locally robust thunderstorms which could
contain gusty winds. We have added enhanced wording (just gusty
winds) during the afternoon, since SPC has placed most of our region
in Marginal risk today.

High temperatures will depend on cloud cover. If clouds were to hold
tough, they could end up mainly in the 70s. However we believe there
will be at least partial sunshine midday on, which along with a
south wind becoming southwest to westerly during the afternoon,
would allow for temperatures to reach 80-85 in most valley
locations, mid to upper 70s over the higher elevations.

Dewpoints look to be still be elevated in the 60s, slowly starting
to come down late in the day as a pre-frontal trough works across
the region.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The actual cold front still does not look to clear our region until
the evening hours tonight, perhaps with a stray shower. However,
most if not all the forcing and deep moisture should be gone by this
time so only low or slight pops from the Capital region southward.

Drier and slightly cooler air will allow temperatures to settle back
into the 50s across most areas overnight, with lows around 60 in the
immediate Capital region and further south. A light breeze should
preclude the formation of any fog, even with a partly cloudy sky.

Tuesday and Wednesday both look like great days as high pressure
builds over us from southern Canada. H850 temps look to cool to
around +12C. With good mixing, we are still looking for highs
slightly above normal, but dewpoints lower to the 50s. There looks
to be ample sunshine each day. The wind will be northwest 5-15 mph
on Tuesday with a few higher gusts, light and variable on Wednesday.

Look for highs around 80 in the valleys both days, lower to mid 70s
higher terrain. Lows Wednesday night in the 50s.

Thursday will start out dry. The 00Z GFS brings QPF to much of the
region by late in the day, while the 00Z European (ECMWF) and
Canadian models are slower keeping the day dry. We lean with the
drier solution so we kept Thursday dry as well with some increasing
in clouds and humidity as a south breeze picking up to 5-15 mph.

By Thursday a weak cold front and a weak upper trough approach
possibly bringing us some showers. However, the 12Z ECMWF bring very
little QPF Thursday night as most moisture from this system looks to
get robbed by what will be lift from Tropical Depression Bonnie
which is forecast to slide of the mid Atlantic coast and not impact
our region.

Lows on Thursday night look to be around 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The long term looks somewhat unsettled as all models indicate a
broad trough will replace the ridge that has been over us. However,
there discrepancies between the 00Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF. The GFS is
much more aggressive developing a deeper trough with a cutoff low
over the Great Lakes, meandering to our region. This setup look to
bring a rather wet pattern over our region during this time frame.

The ECMWF is more progressive, keep the trough a bit flatter
initially, eventually developing a cutoff low further north over
southern Canada. While not completely, this solution brings less
rain to our region as the good forcing remains mainly north of the
region.

While the ECMWF often turns out be more accurate, it is too early to
completely rule out the wetter GFS solution so for now, we took a
middle approach. Either way, pops are warranted for Friday as some
sort of the low pressure system/mid level trough looks to approach
our region. If the ECMWF solution is correct, Saturday could turn
out dry, although the GFS lingers showers over our region. For now,
went slight chance for pops on Saturday.

By Sunday another disturbance associated with a still deepening
trough approaches, so chances of showers look reasonable. We
continue with slight chances of thunder as well.

Temperatures during the extended period look to be close to
seasonable levels for early June, perhaps trending a little below
normal. This will translate to highs in the 70s and lows mainly
in the 50s.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Another batch of rain/showers was approaching as the current VFR
conditions should begin to drop back to MVFR overnight.  Within the
heavier rainfall, as per upstream observations, there will be a
chance for IFR late tonight as we will place TEMPO groups and
monitor trends.  At this time, the best chance for IFR conditions
would be at KPOU-KPSF per the orientation of the showers/rain
tracking northeast.  Otherwise, a light southerly breeze should
prevail overnight.

The batch of showers/rain should diminish from west to east Monday
morning with improvements back to VFR for the Hudson Valley TAFs but
likely lingering within the MVFR thresholds for KPSF due to
favorable upslope and westerly winds.  A cold front is still set to
track across the region from late morning into the afternoon hours
where sct-bkn line of convection may develop.  For now, a VCSH will
be placed until confidence increases.  Southerly winds begin toward
a westerly component toward Noon at speeds 10kts or less.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered showers today and possibly a few afternoon thunderstorms.
However much of the day will be rainfree. RH values will remain
elevated. A south wind will become southwest to west later on this
afternoon, 5- 15 mph.

A cold front will cross the region through this evening, allowing a
return to more seasonable temperatures and humidity levels.

Dry weather Tuesday through Thursday with nearly full recoveries
each and every night. It will be a bit breezy on Tuesday with a
northwest wind 10-15 mph, with gusts to near 25 mph. The wind will
be light and variable on Wednesday, south 5-15 mph on Thursday. The
wind each night look light or calm.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Some localities received up to a couple of inches of rainfall on
Sunday but that was the exception not the rule. Average basin
rainfalls were generally a quarter inch or less. Large rivers were
not affect much by the rain.

More scattered showers today and again some of these could very
locally heavy. They could produce some ponding and maybe some urban
minor flooding but not real impact is expected on rivers and
streams.


With the passage of the low pressure system dry weather will return
Tuesday. High pressure is then expected to build in with the dry
weather continuing through the middle of the week. The next chances
for rain will return late in the week and for the weekend as a low
pressure system approaches.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 300838
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
438 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front will finally push across the area today bringing
additional showers for today and cooler temperatures for the next
few days. Dry conditions are expected Tuesday through Thursday
with high temperatures generally in the mid to upper 70s and lower
humidity levels.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 430 AM EDT Monday...A surface cold front will push across
our forecast area today. We will have some showers in our area,
mainly across southern and eastern vermont. Scattered showers with
a few embedded thunderstorms can be expected. Temperatures will be
more mild than yesterday, therefore instability will be limited.
There should be enough unstable air to have a few isolated
thunderstorms though not mentioning enhanced wording at this time.
Best threat will be central into South central Vermont. Maximum
temperatures today will be in the lower to mid 80s. Drier air will
move into the region overnight behind departing cold front. Min
temperatures will be in the mid 50s to around 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 335 AM EDT Monday...Quiet, seasonably mild weather is then
expected for the Tuesday through Thursday time frame with surface
high pressure being the dominant weather feature. Other than a
passing sprinkle or light shower across the northern Green
Mountains on Tuesday with a passing upper shortwave trough, dry
weather is expected through the period. Daily high temperatures
will range from the mid 70s to lower 80s with overnight lows
generally in the 45 to 55 range with some variability.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 335 AM EDT Monday...By later in the week there is
increasing confidence that we`ll return to an on and off showery
regime as a series of shortwave troughs/fronts push into the
region. There is broad agreement among this morning`s models that
a weakening frontal zone will limp into the region by Thursday
night into Friday before washing out is it presses east by next
Saturday. Given the current consensus will maintain forecast
continuity offering chance pops for showers during this period
with little airmass change expected.

Thereafter confidence lowers in regard to potential development
of a larger-scale longwave trough or closed upper system to our
northwest and its eventual eastward movement/potential impacts.
Teleconnections and latest ensemble output does suggest
amplification of western conus ridging which would tend to foster
lowering heights/troughing from the upper Midwest/Great Lakes
eastward from Sunday onward into next week. However, deterministic
output remains at odds on how deep this feature will be, the
degree to which it digs south and east over time and what
interaction, if any it has with deeper moisture across the mid-
Atlantic/southeast. Given at least the broader consensus in this
overall troughing scenario will bring solid chance pops for
showers and possibly a few storms by later Sunday onward into next
Monday. Temperatures should remain within a few degrees of
seasonable levels with daily highs in the 70s and overnight lows
mainly in the 45 to 55 range.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 06z Tuesday...concerned with areas of BR possible with
locally dense fog at SLK due to today`s rainfall. May see 4-6sm BR
at the remaining TAF locations during the pre-dawn period.
Generally VFR for the daylight hours on today. May see some
additional showers/isolated thunderstorms with peak afternoon
heating...with best chance of thunderstorms development across
central and s-central VT. Surface winds becoming generally S-SW
10-15kts late morning through the afternoon hours on Monday.

Outlook 06z Tuesday through Friday...Primarily VFR TUE-THU with
just a chance of late night fog each night at SLK/MPV mainly
07-11Z. Next frontal system and attendant upper level trough
approaching from the Great Lakes region will bring a chance for
showers Thursday night into Friday with brief intervals of MVFR to
IFR possible associated with rainfall.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Neiles




000
FXUS61 KBTV 300735
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
335 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through this
evening as an upper level shortwave tracks through the North
Country. Locally heavy downpours remain possible. Expect
additional showers again on Memorial Day with slightly cooler
high temperatures. Dry conditions are expected Tuesday through
Thursday with high temperatures generally in the mid to upper 70s
and lower humidity levels.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 117 AM EDT Monday...Moist plume (precipitable water values
of 1.5" to 1.6") will remain over the North Country overnight in
advance of sfc cold front moving ewd across Southeastern Ontario
and Lake Erie at 02Z. Instability has waned across the region, a
combination of loss of daytime heating and broad region of shower
and thunderstorm activity that has affected the region this
afternoon and evening, and associated rain cooled low-level air
now in place. We did see a few areas of damaging winds earlier
today around St. Albans/Sheldon VT and also Essex County NY near
Lake Champlain with separate thunderstorms. Also, radar estimated
rainfall in excess of 4" indicated along the nrn slopes of the
Adirondacks (central Franklin County NY) with training
thunderstorm activity mid-late aftn. This occurred largely in a
wilderness area, with no reports of flooding thus far. Please
refer to our local storm reports for specific details on storm
damage and any future flooding reports that we may acquire.

500mb ridge continues to break down overnight in response to
shortwave trough crossing the Eastern Great Lakes. Moderately
high PW values, mid-level height falls, and increasingly cyclonic
flow will maintain chances for shower activity overnight, though
overall coverage of rainfall should decrease. An additional
0.2-0.3" rainfall is possible through the remainder of the
overnight period. Will see low temperatures mainly in the low to
mid 60s, with cooler temps across Eastern VT with some marine
modified air working into Eastern VT on light E-SE flow (lows in
the Upper 50s in this region). Given today`s rainfall, will see
patchy fog overnight, especially in the valleys within the nrn
Adirondack region where rainfall was locally heaviest.

For Memorial Day, anticipate another day of scattered showers
with a few embedded thunderstorms. It won`t be quite as warm as
today so instability will be limited however through will be
enough unstable air to see a few isolated thunderstorms. Best
threat central into s-central VT. Expected max temps tomorrow will
be in the low to mid 80s as the upper level trough finally starts
to push through the North Country.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 335 AM EDT Monday...Quiet, seasonably mild weather is then
expected for the Tuesday through Thursday time frame with surface
high pressure being the dominant weather feature. Other than a
passing sprinkle or light shower across the northern Green
Mountains on Tuesday with a passing upper shortwave trough, dry
weather is expected through the period. Daily high temperatures
will range from the mid 70s to lower 80s with overnight lows
generally in the 45 to 55 range with some variability.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 335 AM EDT Monday...By later in the week there is
increasing confidence that we`ll return to an on and off showery
regime as a series of shortwave troughs/fronts push into the
region. There is broad agreement among this morning`s models that
a weakening frontal zone will limp into the region by Thursday
night into Friday before washing out is it presses east by next
Saturday. Given the current consensus will maintain forecast
continuity offering chance pops for showers during this period
with little airmass change expected.

Thereafter confidence lowers in regard to potential development of a
larger-scale longwave trough or closed upper system to our northwest
and its eventual eastward movement/potential impacts.
Teleconnections and latest ensemble output does suggest
amplification of western conus ridging which would tend to foster
lowering heights/troughing from the upper Midwest/Great Lakes
eastward from Sunday onward into next week. However, deterministic
output remains at odds on how deep this feature will be, the degree
to which it digs south and east over time and what interaction, if
any it has with deeper moisture across the mid-Atlantic/southeast.
Given at least the broader consensus in this overall troughing
scenario will bring solid chance pops for showers and possibly a few
storms by later Sunday onward into next Monday. Temperatures should
remain within a few degrees of seasonable levels with daily highs in
the 70s and overnight lows mainly in the 45 to 55 range.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 06z Tuesday...concerned with areas of BR possible with
locally dense fog at SLK due to today`s rainfall. May see 4-6sm
BR at the remaining TAF locations during the pre-dawn period.
Generally VFR for the daylight hours on today. May see some
additional showers/isolated thunderstorms with peak afternoon
heating...with best chance of thunderstorms development across
central and s-central VT. Surface winds becoming generally S-SW
10-15kts late morning through the afternoon hours on Monday.

Outlook 06z Tuesday through Friday...Primarily VFR TUE-THU with
just a chance of late night fog each night at SLK/MPV mainly
07-11Z. Next frontal system and attendant upper level trough
approaching from the Great Lakes region will bring a chance for
showers Thursday night into Friday with brief intervals of MVFR to
IFR possible associated with rainfall.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal/Neiles
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Deal/Neiles
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Banacos/Neiles




000
FXUS61 KBTV 291751
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
151 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Memorial Day weekend continues to see well above normal
temperatures with daytime max temps between 10 to 20 degrees above
normal. Increasing low level moisture will allow for higher
relative humidities and an increasing chance for widespread
showers with scattered thunderstorms possible on Sunday and
Memorial Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
As of 1102 AM EDT Sunday...Temperatures and the associated heat
has been quite the challenge this morning. The marine stratus
layer has been able to push into the eastern edge of Vermont and
is keeping temps in the upper 60s to low 70s for Vermont east of
the Greens. However in the Champlain valley we are continuing to
heat up rapidly with the BTV observation at 86F at 11am. The
expected heat wave will depend on how much cloud cover we because
there is a bit of a ceiling currently moving across northern New
York base on latest Vis/IR satellite. Showers are continuing
across the northern Saint Lawrence Valley and into Ontario/Quebec
with the most significant storm north of the international border.
I did continue to blend in hires guidance into the temp forecast
to show the cooler temps under the cloud cover along with the
warmer air into the Champlain Valley. The forecast sensible
weather looked good to go with no changes needed. Previous
discussion follows:

Interesting weather set up today with an upper level ridge still
hanging tough over our eastern zones today as an upper level trof
approaches from the west. Also have a backdoor front which will be
edging into our zones east of the Greens from NH bringing clouds
and cooler temps. Expect our third 90 degree day in a row here in
the Champlain valley with warm air still in place and lots of
sunshine this morning. With approaching shortwave trof and some
surface based instability will have some showers and thunderstorms
develop this afternoon...mainly across northern New York. PWATS
surge to about 1.8" this afternoon...therefore feel that we could
have heavy rain with any thunderstorms and have indicated this in
the forecast. Do feel that models are overdoing the cape once
again. Heavy rain in showers and thunderstorms continues into the
first half of the overnight hours then storms will die off as they
move eastward into more stable air and with loss of daytime
heating. Temperatures will remain mild tonight as plenty of cloud
cover remains in place...generally mid 60s and upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 332 AM EDT Sunday...Surface front then pushes slowly across
the area during Monday with continued solid chances of showers and
a few thunderstorms. Deeper moisture plume pulls east over time so
better shower coverage will become increasingly confined to our
eastern counties as the day progresses. Scattered additional
rainfall totals of up to a quarter inch will be possible across
the east with lesser amounts further west, especially in the St
Lawrence Valley. A trailing, rather flat upper trough then pulls
through the area by Tuesday with little fanfare other than some
variable cloud cover and perhaps a spotty light shower or sprinkle
across the northern mountains. Temperatures remain seasonably warm
during the period but not to degree of recent warmth - mainly mid
70s to lower 80s for highs and overnight lows Monday night in the
50s to around 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 332 AM EDT Sunday...Quiet weather then continues through
the Wednesday/Thursday time frame with mean high pressure in
control of regional conditions. Little airmass change is expected
with daily highs in the 70s to around 80 and overnight lows in the
50s to locally near 60.

By late week models remain broadly consistent in showing a
progressive shortwave trough and attendant front pulling east from
the Great Lakes/Midwest with a renewed threat of showers. Some
uncertainty in ascertaining which period(s) will have the greatest
threat of precipitation as longer-range solutions now showing an
evolution toward more pronounced upper longwave troughing across
the northeast by later next weekend. For now will concentrate
higher values in the Friday/Saturday time frame associated with
the frontal zone, beyond which things become somewhat unclear.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 18z Monday...showers and thunderstorms are moving through
the Adirondacks up to the Canadian border. These cells should
have impact on slk/pbg/btv over the next few hours with
thunderstorms temporarily on station from 18z-21z. Scattered
showers could impact all stations except mss through 00z and then
again overnight from 06-12z. Impacts would be temporary mvfr
conditions with passing showers. Overall conditions should remain
vfr with mpv the one exception seeing mvfr ceilings overnight
until the early morning hours. Winds will be southerly for most of
the period 05-15 knots.

Outlook 18z Monday through
Thursday... Mainly VFR with daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Greatest coverage/threat
appears to occur in the Monday early evening time frame. Best
chance for a dry day will be Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record maximum temperatures for today (May 29) are as follows:

                          5/29
BTV - Burlington        89 in 1978
MPV - Montpelier        87 in 1978
MSS - Massena           90 in 1978
St Johnsbury            92 in 1978
Mt Mansfield            77 in 1978

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Neiles/MV
CLIMATE...BTV




000
FXUS61 KALY 291420
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1020 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be another day of hot and humid weather today. The high
pressure system which has been in place across the region will
weaken over the rest of the weekend and a low pressure system will
approach and cross the area bringing showers and thunderstorms
especially this afternoon and tonight. Some storms will be capable
of producing heavy downpours.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Lots of sun this morning...except for some low clouds along and
east of the southern Green mountains. Those clouds in southern VT
are expected to slowly erode through the rest of the morning and
into early afternoon. Convective clouds are epxected to form once
we get into the mid to upper 80s...closer to the convective
temperature.

Some thunderstorms have already formed in central NY...but quite
isolated and mesoscale models such as the HRRR suggest convection
forms right over our region midday into early afternoon. Area 12Z
soundings show CAPEs potentially reaching around 1000-1500 j/kg
but shear quite weak and relatively warm aloft...so any
thunderstorms should stay below severe limits...but as
usual...initial thunderstorms could pulse up quickly and initial
downdrafts could produce some very gusty winds and could allow for
very small hail to reach the ground and will keep an eye on radar
for that. Locally heavy rain will be more typical of the
convection. So...some minor adjustments to the forecast through
this afternoon based on current data and trends and some HRRR
output.

A few more details through tonight are in the previous AFD which
is below...

Today and tonight look to be the most active periods of the
weekend. A backdoor cold front will be dropping southwest into
the southern Adirondacks and southern Vermont as a cold front
pushes east from the central Great Lakes late in the day and into
western New York and the Saint Lawrence Valley by late tonight.
This will keep the threat of showers and thunderstorms going into
tonight. Have added enhanced wording for heavy rainfall as PWATS
rise to 1.5 to 2 inches late today and tonight as tropical and
Atlantic moisture are being drawn northward into our region. Highs
today will be in the upper 70s to upper 80s with lows tonight in
the upper 50s to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday will also be fairly active as multiple frontal boundaries
are expected to cross the area. Monday morning may be more active
than Monday afternoon as the axis of high PWATS slides east of the
forecast area by Monday afternoon. Still expect fairly widespread
shower and thunderstorm activity. MLMUCAPES are generally down to
500 to 1000 J/KG by late in the day on Monday. Highs are expected
to be in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

On Monday night conditions are expected to improve with any
lingering convection weakening during the evening with dry weather
expected during the second half of the night. Lows Monday night
are expected to be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Tuesday and Tuesday night will feature dry weather and more
seasonable conditions as a ridge of high pressure builds into the
northeast from the Tennessee and Ohio valley regions. Expect highs
on Tuesday to be in the mid 70s to mid 80s with the lows Tuesday
night to be in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Tranquil conditions for the start of the long term portion of the
forecast, Wednesday-Thursday, as a ridge of high pressure extends
across the region from eastern Canada. This ridge will eventually
slide off the New England coast later Thursday, as an upper level
trough and attendant cold/occluded front approaches from the Great
Lakes region for Thursday night-Friday. This front may slow down and
potentially stall just south and east of the region by Saturday.

So, expect dry conditions for Wednesday into Thursday, with mainly
sunny/clear skies. Temperatures should be slightly above seasonal
levels, with highs reaching the mid 70s to lower 80s, and overnight
low temperatures mainly in the 50s, except for some 40s across
portions of the southern Adirondacks and southern Vermont.

Clouds should increase late Thursday, and more so for Thursday night
into Friday. As the front moves across Friday and Friday night,
expect some showers or a period of rain. Chance POPS are indicated
at this time range, since there is some uncertainty as to how
widespread the areal extent of showers or rain will be.

Have kept chance POPS into Saturday for most of the region outside
of the western Adirondacks, as the front possibly slows its
east/southeast progress, and potentially stalls.

With the expectation for clouds and some showers, have indicated
cooler high temperatures for Friday-Saturday, with mid 60s to lower
70s, warmest in valley locations. Overnight low temperatures should
mainly be in the 50s, although may not fall much below 50 in some
portions of the immediate Hudson River valley.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Any areas of BR/FG and associated MVFR/IFR conditions at
KPSF/KGFL should become VFR between 12Z-13Z/Sunday.

As an upper level trough begins to approach, some scattered
showers and thunderstorms may develop by this afternoon, mainly
for KALB/KPSF/KGFL. This could cause brief reductions in flying
conditions, otherwise it looks to remain VFR with sct-bkn clouds
at 5-10 kft.

For tonight, areas of MVFR visibilities will be possible at TAF
sites which receive afternoon showers. Showers should taper off
early this evening, before additional showers develop from south
to north after 07Z/Monday, as moisture from the south interacts
with the approach of a cold front from the west. Areas of MVFR to
IFR ceilings/visibilities will be possible as low clouds and
showers develop, with the best chance of IFR conditions at KPSF
and KPOU.

Light/variable winds will become south and increase to 5 to 10
kts by this afternoon, and could gust into the 15-20 KT range,
especially at KALB. South to southeast winds should decrease to
less than 10 KT after sunset.

Winds will be much stronger, and variable in direction in and near
any thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
It will be another day of hot and humid weather today. The high
pressure system which has been in place across the region will
weaken over the rest of the weekend and a low pressure system will
approach and cross the area bringing showers and thunderstorms
especially this afternoon and tonight. Some storms will be capable
of producing heavy downpours.

Relative humidity values are expected to drop to 45 to 60 percent
this afternoon...recover to 80 to 100 percent tonight...and drop
to 55 to 75 percent on Monday.

Winds are expected to be south at 5 to 10 mph today...light and
variable tonight...and southwest at 5 to 10 mph on Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The high pressure system which has been in place across the
region will weaken over the rest of the weekend and a low pressure
system will approach and cross the area bringing showers and
thunderstorms especially this afternoon and tonight. Some storms
will be capable of producing heavy downpours.

Precipitable water values will be high through the remainder
of the weekend especially Sunday night into Monday when they are
expected to be 1.5 to approaching 2 inches; 175 percent of normal
as tropical moisture is drawn into the region. Thus heavy
downpours are expected with some storms.

Widespread hydrologic issues are not anticipated, however heavy
downpours are expected which would lead to ponding of water and
minor flooding of urban, poor drainage, and low lying areas.

Drier weather looks to take hold for the middle of next week as
high pressure builds in. Chances for rain will return late in the
week into the weekend as a low pressure system approaches.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures.

Albany NY...
May 29th...93 degrees 1931 Daily records date back to 1874

Glens Falls NY...
May 29th...88 degrees 2012 Records date back to 1949

Poughkeepsie NY...
May 29th...96 degrees 1969 Records date back to 1949, however
data is missing from January 1993 through July 2000

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...Frugis/KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...IAA/11
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBTV 291139
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
739 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Memorial Day weekend continues to see well above normal
temperatures with daytime max temps between 10 to 20 degrees above
normal. Increasing low level moisture will allow for higher
relative humidities and an increasing chance for widespread
showers with scattered thunderstorms possible on Sunday and
Memorial Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 715 AM EDT Sunday...visible imagery now showing clouds
moving in from our west associated with upper trof...and clouds
moving in from our east associated with back door front across new
england. There are some lower clouds with this second bank of
clouds. may be a tough forecast with clouds and resulting temps.
still feel good about 90s in the champlain valley though. previous
discussion follows.

interesting weather set up today. upper level ridge still hangs
tough over our eastern zones today as an upper level trof
approaches from the west. also have a backdoor front which will be
edging into our zones east of the Greens from NH bringing clouds
and cooler temps. Expect our third 90 degree day in a row here in
the Champlain valley with warm air still in place and lots of
sunshine this morning. With approaching shortwave trof and some
surface based instability will have some showers and thunderstorms
develop this afternoon...mainly across northern New York. PWATS
surge to about 1.8" this afternoon...therefore feel that we could
have heavy rain with any thunderstorms and have indicated this in
the forecast. do feel that models are overdoing the cape once
again. heavy rain in showers and thunderstorms continues into the
first half of the overnight hours then storms will die off as they
move eastward into more stable air and with loss of daytime
heating. Temperatures will remain mild tonight as plenty of cloud
cover remains in place...generally mid 60s and upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 332 AM EDT Sunday...Surface front then pushes slowly across
the area during Monday with continued solid chances of showers and
a few thunderstorms. Deeper moisture plume pulls east over time so
better shower coverage will become increasingly confined to our
eastern counties as the day progresses. Scattered additional
rainfall totals of up to a quarter inch will be possible across
the east with lesser amounts further west, especially in the St
Lawrence Valley. A trailing, rather flat upper trough then pulls
through the area by Tuesday with little fanfare other than some
variable cloud cover and perhaps a spotty light shower or sprinkle
across the northern mountains. Temperatures remain seasonably warm
during the period but not to degree of recent warmth - mainly mid
70s to lower 80s for highs and overnight lows Monday night in the
50s to around 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 332 AM EDT Sunday...Quiet weather then continues through
the Wednesday/Thursday time frame with mean high pressure in
control of regional conditions. Little airmass change is expected
with daily highs in the 70s to around 80 and overnight lows in the
50s to locally near 60.

By late week models remain broadly consistent in showing a
progressive shortwave trough and attendant front pulling east from
the Great Lakes/Midwest with a renewed threat of showers. Some
uncertainty in ascertaining which period(s) will have the greatest
threat of precipitation as longer-range solutions now showing an
evolution toward more pronounced upper longwave troughing across
the northeast by later next weekend. For now will concentrate
higher values in the Friday/Saturday time frame associated with
the frontal zone, beyond which things become somewhat unclear.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Through 12z Monday...fog has lifted already at slk. now forecast
challenge will be extent of low clouds moving into the region from
our east due to back door front in new england. Additional heating
and increasing depth of moisture should support at least scattered
showers/possible storms this afternoon. Latest short- term
guidance points to a start time around 16z off the Adirondacks and
then advancing eastward. Any thunderstorm capable of heavy rain
and associated brief IFR visibilities. Maintained VCSH for this
period with prevailing VFR conditions. Winds becoming
south/southwest 5-8 kts.

Outlook 12z Monday through Thursday... Mainly VFR with daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening.
Greatest coverage/threat appears to occur in the Monday early
evening time frame. Best chance for a dry day will be Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record maximum temperatures for today (May 29) are as follows:

                          5/29
BTV - Burlington        89 in 1978
MPV - Montpelier        87 in 1978
MSS - Massena           90 in 1978
St Johnsbury            92 in 1978
Mt Mansfield            77 in 1978

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Neiles
CLIMATE...BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 290821
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
421 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Memorial Day weekend continues to see well above normal
temperatures with daytime max temps between 10 to 20 degrees above
normal. Increasing low level moisture will allow for higher
relative humidities and an increasing chance for widespread
showers with scattered thunderstorms possible on Sunday and
Memorial Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Sunday...interesting weather set up today. upper
level ridge still hangs tough over our eastern zones today as an
upper level trof approaches from the west. also have a backdoor
front which will be edging into our zones east of the Greens from
NH bringing clouds and cooler temps. Expect our third 90 degree
day in a row here in the Champlain valley with warm air still in
place and lots of sunshine this morning. With approaching
shortwave trof and some surface based instability will have some
showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon...mainly across
northern New York. PWATS surge to about 1.8" this
afternoon...therefore feel that we could have heavy rain with any
thunderstorms and have indicated this in the forecast. do feel
that models are overdoing the cape once again. heavy rain in
showers and thunderstorms continues into the first half of the
overnight hours then storms will die off as they move eastward
into more stable air and with loss of daytime heating.
Temperatures will remain mild tonight as plenty of cloud cover
remains in place...generally mid 60s and upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 332 AM EDT Sunday...Surface front then pushes slowly across
the area during Monday with continued solid chances of showers and
a few thunderstorms. Deeper moisture plume pulls east over time so
better shower coverage will become increasingly confined to our
eastern counties as the day progresses. Scattered additional
rainfall totals of up to a quarter inch will be possible across
the east with lesser amounts further west, especially in the St
Lawrence Valley. A trailing, rather flat upper trough then pulls
through the area by Tuesday with little fanfare other than some
variable cloud cover and perhaps a spotty light shower or sprinkle
across the northern mountains. Temperatures remain seasonably warm
during the period but not to degree of recent warmth - mainly mid
70s to lower 80s for highs and overnight lows Monday night in the
50s to around 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 332 AM EDT Sunday...Quiet weather then continues through
the Wednesday/Thursday time frame with mean high pressure in
control of regional conditions. Little airmass change is expected
with daily highs in the 70s to around 80 and overnight lows in the
50s to locally near 60.

By late week models remain broadly consistent in showing a
progressive shortwave trough and attendant front pulling east from
the Great Lakes/Midwest with a renewed threat of showers. Some
uncertainty in ascertaining which period(s) will have the greatest
threat of precipitation as longer-range solutions now showing an
evolution toward more pronounced upper longwave troughing across
the northeast by later next weekend. For now will concentrate
higher values in the Friday/Saturday time frame associated with
the frontal zone, beyond which things become somewhat unclear.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Through 06z Monday... Generally VFR with overnight IFR/LIFR mist
at SLK and possibly at MPV. Increasing risk for sct SHRA/TSRA
particularly after 16z Sunday at our NY terminals.

Similar to last night with some leftover high clouds. Areas of
mist likely starting at 06z at SLK. Boundary- layer flow is
slightly higher enough at mpv to keep any mist that may develop
there temporary. Winds initially light/terrain driven becoming
calm.

Any mist/light fog lifts early in the morning under strong
sunshine. Additional heating and increasing depth of moisture
should support at least scattered showers/possible storms. Latest
short-term guidance points to a start time around 16z off the
Adirondacks and then advancing eastward. Any thunderstorm capable
of heavy rain and associated brief IFR visibilities. Maintained
VCSH for this period with prevailing VFR conditions. Winds
becoming south/southwest 5-8 kts.

Outlook 06z Monday through Thursday... Mainly VFR with daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening.
Greatest coverage/threat appears to occur in the Monday early
evening time frame. Best chance for a dry day will be Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record maximum temperatures for today (May 29) are as follows:

                          5/29
BTV - Burlington        89 in 1978
MPV - Montpelier        87 in 1978
MSS - Massena           90 in 1978
St Johnsbury            92 in 1978
Mt Mansfield            77 in 1978

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Neiles
CLIMATE...BTV




000
FXUS61 KALY 290514
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
114 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be muggy tonight after a day of record breaking heat with
another day of hot and humid weather Sunday. The high in place
will weaken over the rest of the weekend and a low pressure
system will approach and cross the area bringing showers and
thunderstorms especially Sunday afternoon and night. Some storms
will be capable of producing heavy downpours.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1215 AM EDT...A backdoor cold front was located just to our
north and east across northern New York and central New England.
The ridge of high pressure that has been over the region the last
several days will begin to weaken overnight with only subtle
height falls. With the loss of daytime heating, any isolated
convection that was able to develop during the day has dissipated
and no precipitation is expected through the overnight hours.

It will be a muggy night with lows only falling back into the
60s. The dew points will not be much lower than the temperatures
and with light/variable to calm winds some fog will form
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The upper ridge will weaken with heights occurring Sunday into
Monday as short wave trough moves across the Great Lakes region
and eastern Canada. By Monday evening the flow aloft will be
nearly zonal over the region.

At the surface, a stalled boundary to our north with move southward
as a backdoor front as the heights fall aloft and will provide
focus for convection to develop Sunday. Do not have confidence on
how far south the boundary will make it before lifting back
northward as a warm front Sunday night into Monday and some tropical
moisture from will be drawn northward into the region. Precipitable
water values south and east of the Capital District are forecast
to rise and approach 2 inches. This along with the approach of the
low pressure system`s cold front as the main low passes well to
our north across Quebec showers will be numerous along with
chances for thunderstorms. The better chances for showers with
heavy downpours will be south and east of the Capital District
late Sunday night onto Monday morning. Have locally heavy
rainfall possible in the forecast.

The Storm Prediction have the region under a general thunderstorm
outlook Sunday with an enhanced outlook for Monday with the more
organized forcing.

Sunday will be very warm/hot and humid again however temperatures
are expected to not be as high as today. The record high at Glens
Falls may be challenge, however are expected to fall short for
Albany and Poughkeepsie. Refer to the climate section details
Lower but still above normal temperatures are expected Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A tranquil first half to the extended forecast period will then
transition to a more active second half of the forecast period.
Temperatures will start above average and then cool down to near
average temperatures by the time we go toward the first half of next
weekend.

A upper level ridge of high pressure will build into the region
Tuesday night with a surface high pressure working south out of
Canada. The upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to
amplify poleward and shift eastward as we go toward Thursday night
out ahead of our main weather system for the extended period. With a
light southerly flow and mostly clear skies under the ridge of high
pressure, temperatures are expected to be slightly above average as
we go through the middle of next week.

As we go toward the day on Friday, a cold front will slowly makes
its way east across western New York. Out ahead of the cold front,
some showers are likely as the latest 28/12z model and probabilistic
guidance shows the highest chances of precipitation Friday night
into the day on Saturday. High temperatures for Friday into the
first half of the weekend will cool down closer to average for early
June.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through Sunday daybreak, patchy ground fog is expected to develop
at KGFL and KPSF, with occasional MVFR/IFR visibilities.
Elsewhere, mainly VFR conditions are expected.

After Sunday daybreak, as an upper level trough begins to
approach, some scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop by
Sunday afternoon, mainly for KALB/KPSF/KGFL. This could cause
brief reductions in flying conditions, otherwise it looks to
remain VFR with sct-bkn clouds at 5-10 kft.

For Sunday evening, areas of MVFR visibilities will be possible at
TAF sites which receive afternoon showers. Also, additional
showers may be ongoing at KGFL/KALB. Some IFR visibilities could
occur toward and especially after 06Z/Monday, especially at KGFL.

Winds will be mainly light/variable through daybreak, except
south at 5-10 KT at KALB. Winds will become south and increase to
5 to 10 kts by Sunday afternoon, and could gust into the 15-20 KT
range, especially at KALB. South to southeast winds should
decrease to less than 10 KT after sunset.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Memorial Day: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
It will be muggy tonight after a day of record breaking heat with
another day of hot and humid weather Sunday. The high in place
will weaken over the rest of the weekend and a low pressure
system will approach and cross the area bringing showers and
thunderstorms especially Sunday afternoon and night. Some storms
will be capable of producing heavy downpours.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The high in place will weaken over the rest of the weekend and a
low pressure system will approach and cross the area bringing
showers and thunderstorms especially Sunday afternoon and night.

Precipitable water values will be high through the remainder
of the weekend especially Sunday night into Monday when they are
expected to be 1.5 to approaching 2 inches; 175 percent of normal
as tropical moisture is drawn into the region. Thus heavy
downpours would be expected some storms.

Widespread hydrologic issues are not anticipated, however heavy
downpours are expected which would lead to ponding of water and
minor flooding of urban, poor drainage, and low lying areas
particular to the south and east of the Capital District.

Drier weather looks to take hold for the middle of next week as
high pressure builds in. Chances for rain will return late in the
week into the weekend as a low pressure system approaches.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs were broken today

Albany NY...
May 28th...New record set with a high of 93 degrees. Old record
was 91 degrees 1911.
May 29th...93 degrees 1931
Daily records date back to 1874

Glens Falls NY...
May 28th...New record set with a high of 89 degrees. Old record
was 88 degrees 1988.
May 29th...88 degrees 2012
Records date back to 1949

Poughkeepsie NY...
May 28th...New record set with a high of 94 degrees. Old record
was 90 degrees 2012.
May 29th...96 degrees 1969
Records date back to 1949, however data is missing from January
1993 through July 2000

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/Frugis/11
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...Frugis/KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBTV 290234
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1034 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day weekend will continue to see well above normal
temperatures with daytime max temps between 10 to 20 degrees
above normal. Increasing low level moisture will allow for higher
relative humidities and an increasing chance for widespread
showers with scattered thunderstorms possible on Sunday and
Memorial Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY EVENING/...
As of 1033 PM EDT Saturday...No significant changes needed to
current forecast, with warm conditions continuing late this
evening (temps mainly in the low-mid 70s at 10pm). With the 2pm
observation in Burlington we reached 90 degrees for the second day
in a row putting us two thirds of a way to a local heat wave.
Expect warm and moderately humid conditions through the overnight
period. Despite some aftn and early evening towering Cu across
the higher terrain, anticyclonic flow aloft with strong mid-level
ridge in place across NY/New England precluding any convective
initiation with lack of large-scale forcing for ascent.

Anticipate some patchy fog/mist across the valleys of northern NY
after midnight tonight, similar to what occurred during the pre-
dawn hrs this morning. Lack of rainfall in recent days will
generally limit areal extent of fog formation. Overnight low
temperatures generally in the low to mid 60s.

For Sunday, mid-level shortwave trough crossing the ern Great
Lakes induces height falls by afternoon across nrn NY/VT, with
better chance for afternoon shower and thunderstorm development as
compared to the previous 2-3 days. There will be a large influx
of precipitable water with values rising to 1.6-1.8". 925mb temps
are elevated again Sunday and the 21-23C 925mb temps will support
max temps tomorrow once again in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Currently the forecast for Burlington reaches heat wave criteria
with a max temps of 90 expected. Should remain dry with partly to
mostly sunny for the morning hours, then will see scattered
shower/tstm development mainly after 17-18Z, with initial
development likely starting across the ern slopes of the
Adirondacks and moving ewd into the Champlain Valley and into wrn
VT, per 18Z NAM4KM. MUCAPE values are expected to reach 1000-2000
J/kg during the peak daytime heating hours. With the chance for
thunderstorm development, slow storm motions, and PWAT values
1.6-1.8", continued to mention the chance for heavy rain in any
thunderstorms that develop. We should be safe with regards to
flash flooding owing to how dry we`ve been in May but locally
heavy downpours and dangerous cloud to ground lightning can be
expected with the scattered convective storms expected Sunday aftn
into early Sunday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 427 PM EDT Saturday...precipitable water values early
Sunday night will be 1.5 to 2 inches. Will mention showers and
thunderstorms for Sunday night, and will include some heavy
rainfall possible with any thunderstorms. Conditions quite dry
across the region in May, so do not expect any flash flood issues
at this time. ECMWF and GFS models now showing frontal system will
move through the region earlier in the day on Monday with showers
mainly Monday morning, as both models showing a mid level dry slot
will move into the region by 18z Monday. Thus, have decreased pops
for Monday afternoon, and will go with a dry forecast for Monday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 427 PM EDT Saturday...Fair and dry weather will be over the
north country from Tuesday through Thursday night, as a ridge of
high pressure at the surface and aloft builds east from the Great
Lakes. ECMWF and GFS models in fairly good agreement with bring a
cold front from the Great Lakes into the region with showers
expected Friday and Friday night. ECMWF and GFS models differ on
forecast for Saturday, with the ECMWF model more progressive than
the GFS and has a mainly dry forecast for Saturday, while the GFS
model has the front stalled across the region on Saturday as it
will be parallel to the upper flow. Thus, forecaster confidence
for the Saturday forecast is low at this time. Have stuck with
super-blend pops for Saturday and will have a chance of showers in
the forecast for Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Through 00z Monday... Generally VFR with overnight IFR/LIFR mist
at SLK and possibly at MPV. Increasing risk for sct SHRA/TSRA
particularly after 16z Sunday.

All-in-all pretty similar to last night with some leftover high
clouds. Areas of mist likely starting at 06z at SLK. Boundary-
layer flow is slightly higher enough at mpv to keep any mist
that may develop there temporary. Winds initially light/terrain
driven becoming calm.

Any mist/light fog burns off early in the morning under strong
sunshine. Additional heating and increasing depth of moisture
should support at least scattered showers/possible storms.
Latest short-term guidance points to a start time around 16z off
the Adirondacks and then advancing eastward. Any thunderstorm
capable of heavy rain and associated brief IFR visibilities.
Maintained VCSH for this period with prevailing VFR conditions.
Winds becoming south/southwest 5-8 kts.

Outlook 00z Monday through Wednesday... Mainly VFR with daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening.
Greatest coverage/threat appears to occur in the Sunday early
evening and Monday time frame. Best chance for a dry day will be
Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record maximum temperatures for Saturday 5/28 and Sunday 5/29 are as
follows:
                           5/28         5/29
BTV - Burlington        92 in 1978    89 in 1978
MPV - Montpelier        88 in 1978    87 in 1978
MSS - Massena           89 in 1978    90 in 1978
St Johnsbury            93 in 1978    92 in 1978
Mt Mansfield            77 in 1978    77 in 1978

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Deal
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Deal/Loconto
CLIMATE...BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 282336
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
736 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day weekend will continue to see well above normal
temperatures with daytime max temps between 10 to 20 degrees
above normal. Increasing low level moisture will allow for higher
relative humidities and an increasing chance for widespread
showers with scattered thunderstorms possible on Sunday and
Memorial Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 724 PM EDT Saturday...No significant changes needed to
current forecast, with very warm conditions continuing this
evening (temps mainly in the 80s at 7pm). With the 2pm
observation in Burlington we reached 90 degrees for the second day
in a row putting us two thirds of a way to a local heat wave.
Expect warm and moderately humid conditions through the overnight
period. Despite some continued towering Cu across the higher
terrain, anticyclonic flow aloft with strong mid-level ridge in
place across NY/New England precluding any convective initiation
with lack of large-scale forcing for ascent.

Anticipate some patchy fog/mist across the valleys of northern NY
after midnight tonight, similar to what occurred during the pre-
dawn hrs this morning. Lack of rainfall in recent days will
generally limit areal extent of fog formation. Overnight low
temperatures generally in the low to mid 60s.

For Sunday, mid-level shortwave trough crossing the ern Great
Lakes induces height falls by afternoon across nrn NY/VT, with
better chance for afternoon shower and thunderstorm development as
compared to the previous 2-3 days. There will be a large influx
of precipitable water with values rising to 1.6-1.8". 925mb temps
are elevated again Sunday and the 21-23C 925mb temps will support
max temps tomorrow once again in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Currently the forecast for Burlington reaches heat wave criteria
with a max temps of 90 expected. Should remain dry with partly to
mostly sunny for the morning hours, then will see scattered
shower/tstm development mainly after 17-18Z, with initial
development likely starting across the ern slopes of the
Adirondacks and moving ewd into the Champlain Valley and into wrn
VT, per 18Z NAM4KM. MUCAPE values are expected to reach 1000-2000
J/kg during the peak daytime heating hours. With the chance for
thunderstorm development, slow storm motions, and PWAT values
1.6-1.8", continued to mention the chance for heavy rain in any
thunderstorms that develop. We should be safe with regards to
flash flooding owing to how dry we`ve been in May but locally
heavy downpours and dangerous cloud to ground lightning can be
expected with the scattered convective storms expected Sunday aftn
into early Sunday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 427 PM EDT Saturday...precipitable water values early
Sunday night will be 1.5 to 2 inches. Will mention showers and
thunderstorms for Sunday night, and will include some heavy
rainfall possible with any thunderstorms. Conditions quite dry
across the region in May, so do not expect any flash flood issues
at this time. ECMWF and GFS models now showing frontal system will
move through the region earlier in the day on Monday with showers
mainly Monday morning, as both models showing a mid level dry slot
will move into the region by 18z Monday. Thus, have decreased pops
for Monday afternoon, and will go with a dry forecast for Monday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 427 PM EDT Saturday...Fair and dry weather will be over the
north country from Tuesday through Thursday night, as a ridge of
high pressure at the surface and aloft builds east from the Great
Lakes. ECMWF and GFS models in fairly good agreement with bring a
cold front from the Great Lakes into the region with showers
expected Friday and Friday night. ECMWF and GFS models differ on
forecast for Saturday, with the ECMWF model more progressive than
the GFS and has a mainly dry forecast for Saturday, while the GFS
model has the front stalled across the region on Saturday as it
will be parallel to the upper flow. Thus, forecaster confidence
for the Saturday forecast is low at this time. Have stuck with
super-blend pops for Saturday and will have a chance of showers in
the forecast for Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Through 00z Monday... Generally VFR with overnight IFR/LIFR mist
at SLK and possibly at MPV. Increasing risk for sct SHRA/TSRA
particularly after 16z Sunday.

All-in-all pretty similar to last night with some leftover high
clouds. Areas of mist likely starting at 06z at SLK. Boundary-
layer flow is slightly higher enough at mpv to keep any mist
that may develop there temporary. Winds initially light/terrain
driven becoming calm.

Any mist/light fog burns off early in the morning under strong
sunshine. Additional heating and increasing depth of moisture
should support at least scattered showers/possible storms.
Latest short-term guidance points to a start time around 16z off
the Adirondacks and then advancing eastward. Any thunderstorm
capable of heavy rain and associated brief IFR visibilities.
Maintained VCSH for this period with prevailing VFR conditions.
Winds becoming south/southwest 5-8 kts.

Outlook 00z Monday through Wednesday... Mainly VFR with daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening.
Greatest coverage/threat appears to occur in the Sunday early
evening and Monday time frame. Best chance for a dry day will be
Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record maximum temperatures for Saturday 5/28 and Sunday 5/29 are as
follows:
                           5/28         5/29
BTV - Burlington        92 in 1978    89 in 1978
MPV - Montpelier        88 in 1978    87 in 1978
MSS - Massena           89 in 1978    90 in 1978
St Johnsbury            93 in 1978    92 in 1978
Mt Mansfield            77 in 1978    77 in 1978

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Deal
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Deal/Loconto
CLIMATE...BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 282322
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
722 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day weekend will continue to see well above normal
temperatures with daytime max temps between 10 to 20 degrees
above normal. Increasing low level moisture will allow for higher
relative humidities and an increasing chance for widespread
showers with scattered thunderstorms possible on Sunday and
Memorial Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 344 PM EDT Saturday...
With the 2pm observation in Burlington we reached 90 degrees for
the second day in a row putting us two thirds of a way to a local
heat wave. Expect warm and muggy (relative to normal for the North
Country) conditions through the rest of the afternoon and early
evening. The scattered cumulus field has continued to develop
across both northern New York and Vermont, however the lack of
any significant forcing has prevented any showers from developing
as of this discussion. The lake breeze on the western edge of Lake
Champlain may end up being the trigger for some late afternoon
early evening convection depending on how inland it moves.
Additionally, the western edge of the Champlain Valley has been
considerable cooler with light to moderate onshore flow from the
much colder lake water temps. With the area somewhat unstable
150-200 J/kg of MUCAPE any showers that do develop will have the
potential to cause an isolated lightning strike or two.

As the upper level ridge continues to build this evening expect
another evening with some potential for patchy fog development. The
best chance will be over northern New York where we are still
drying out from the light rain that fell overnight Thursday.
Across Vermont where we`ve gone with consecutive drys days we may
not have enough boundary layer moisture to see widespread fog.

Tomorrow, as mentioned by the midnight crew, becomes quite the
active period. The upper level ridge overnight gives way to an
advancing upper level trough. There will be a large influx of
precipitable water with values rising to 1.6-1.8 by location.
925mb temps are elevated again Sunday and the 21-23C 925mb temps
will support max temps tomorrow once again in the upper 80s to low
90s. Currently the forecast for Burlington reaches heat wave
criteria with a max temps of 90 expected. Unlike today however
there will be a few piece of shortwave energy the ride along the
longwave trough providing the necessary trigger for convection to
occur. So I`ve continue to offer high chance to likely pops for
most of the forecast area. MUCAPE values are expected to exceed
500-1000 J/kg and K-index values also are indicated of
thunderstorm development. With the chance for thunderstorm
development, slow storm motions, and abnormally high pwat, I
continued to mention the chance for heavy rain in any
thunderstorms that develop. We should be safe with regards to
flash flooding due to how dry we`ve been in May but caution should
be taken with any shower producing heavy rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 427 PM EDT Saturday...precipitable water values early
Sunday night will be 1.5 to 2 inches. Will mention showers and
thunderstorms for Sunday night, and will include some heavy
rainfall possible with any thunderstorms. Conditions quite dry
across the region in May, so do not expect any flash flood issues
at this time. ECMWF and GFS models now showing frontal system will
move through the region earlier in the day on Monday with showers
mainly Monday morning, as both models showing a mid level dry slot
will move into the region by 18z Monday. Thus, have decreased pops
for Monday afternoon, and will go with a dry forecast for Monday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 427 PM EDT Saturday...Fair and dry weather will be over the
north country from Tuesday through Thursday night, as a ridge of
high pressure at the surface and aloft builds east from the Great
Lakes. ECMWF and GFS models in fairly good agreement with bring a
cold front from the Great Lakes into the region with showers
expected Friday and Friday night. ECMWF and GFS models differ on
forecast for Saturday, with the ECMWF model more progressive than
the GFS and has a mainly dry forecast for Saturday, while the GFS
model has the front stalled across the region on Saturday as it
will be parallel to the upper flow. Thus, forecaster confidence
for the Saturday forecast is low at this time. Have stuck with
super-blend pops for Saturday and will have a chance of showers in
the forecast for Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Through 00z Monday... Generally VFR with overnight IFR/LIFR mist
at SLK and possibly at MPV. Increasing risk for sct SHRA/TSRA
particularly after 16z Sunday.

All-in-all pretty similar to last night with some leftover high
clouds. Areas of mist likely starting at 06z at SLK. Boundary-
layer flow is slightly higher enough at mpv to keep any mist
that may develop there temporary. Winds initially light/terrain
driven becoming calm.

Any mist/light fog burns off early in the morning under strong
sunshine. Additional heating and increasing depth of moisture
should support at least scattered showers/possible storms.
Latest short-term guidance points to a start time around 16z off
the Adirondacks and then advancing eastward. Any thunderstorm
capable of heavy rain and associated brief IFR visibilities.
Maintained VCSH for this period with prevailing VFR conditions.
Winds becoming south/southwest 5-8 kts.

Outlook 00z Monday through Wednesday... Mainly VFR with daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening.
Greatest coverage/threat appears to occur in the Sunday early
evening and Monday time frame. Best chance for a dry day will be
Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record maximum temperatures for Saturday 5/28 and Sunday 5/29 are as
follows:
                           5/28         5/29
BTV - Burlington        92 in 1978    89 in 1978
MPV - Montpelier        88 in 1978    87 in 1978
MSS - Massena           89 in 1978    90 in 1978
St Johnsbury            93 in 1978    92 in 1978
Mt Mansfield            77 in 1978    77 in 1978

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Deal
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Deal/Loconto
CLIMATE...BTV




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