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000
FXUS61 KBTV 022059
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FADE AWAY MONDAY EVENING, LEAVING
BEHIND CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY AND END AS A LITTLE BIT OF MIX OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL BE MILD WEDNESDAY, BUT COLDER AIR RETURNS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...AS EXPECTED, CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA -- AS DENOTED BY THE VERY CELLULAR
STRUCTURE EVIDENT ON RADAR. GOOD NEWS IS THAT NONE OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY (THOUGH A 10-15 MINUTE
PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW WILL OCCUR) SO THEY SHOULD NOT IMPACT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS MUCH. WINDS ARE A BIT ON THE GUSTY SIDE, AND
I`VE SEEN A NUMBER OF 25-30KT GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION. AS WE GET
CLOSER TO SUNSET, WE`LL LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING AND ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING SO BOTH THE SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL FADE AWAY
GRACEFULLY.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT -- HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION,
SETTING UP SETTING UP FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR AND RATHER CHILLY NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL WITHIN THE +/- 5F RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
SOME "DEVIL IN THE DETAILS" REGARDING THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH DOES LEAD TO PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES. LET`S
JUST DISCUSS EACH 12-HOUR BLOCK OF TIME...

TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, SO WE START
CLEAR BUT CLOUD OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-12 TO -17C RANGE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO BY LATE AFTERNOON
WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW BREAK OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT: VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. 850MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 45-55KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THUS IT
SHOULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY, IF NOT WINDY, IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THINK WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
JET WILL BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT, WHICH RESULTS IN A STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN THE 8PM-
2AM TIMEFRAME PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE. AFTER THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-925MB LEVEL START TO SNEAK ABOVE 0C. THAT MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE OVER TO DIFFERENT PRECIP-TYPES. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT AS TYPICAL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENTS, MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER WITH PRIOR TO THE MIXING. MODELS ALSO
TYPICALLY SHOW US GETTING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN REALITY DURING THESE
WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEMS, SO I ENDED UP TAKING A MODEL BLEND AND
THEN CUTTING BACK A LITTLE. THINK IN GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.3" OF
"LIQUID", HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING/DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SO ONLY ABOUT 0.1" OR SO
THERE. TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO ESTIMATE THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIO.
BEST GUESS IS WE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 10-13:1 RANGE. THIS
GIVES A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW, PRIOR TO ANY MIXING HAPPENING. FOR
THE MIXING POTENTIAL, NOTED THE NAM, WHICH IS USUALLY A COLDER
MODEL, WAS WARMEST AND BROUGHT THE MIX ALL THE WAY UP TO NORTHERN
VT. GFS WAS COLDEST AND KEPT EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH OF VERMONT.
THE EURO AND THE LOCAL 12KM WRF WERE IN-BETWEEN. ENDED UP USING
THE 12KM WRF FOR A LITTLE FINER RESOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE, ANY MIX
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WE`LL
SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS HAVE A DIFFERENT TREND. A LITTLE NORTHWARD
JOG IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER (AND LIKELY WARMER)
SITUATION.

WEDNESDAY: LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF AND
END AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST EVERYONE. YEP, STILL LOOKING
FOR A WONDERFULLY WARM DAY -- WELL, IF YOU CAN CALL 40S WARM.
STUCK WITH A GUIDANCE MIX THAT HAS BURLINGTON REACHING THE LOWER
40S, BUT NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED MID TO EVEN UPPER 40S.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE COLDER AIR STARTS TO MAKE IT`S
WAY IN. GIVEN WINDS TURNING WESTERLY DURING THE DAY (EG:
DOWNSLOPING), AND A DRY SLOT LIKELY GIVING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, I`D GIVE UPPER 40S ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. MAYBE
THAT IS JUST ME WISH-CASTING ;)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
AND COLD-AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT, WITH LOWS CLOSER TO ZERO OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. STILL SOME WIND AND SOME CLOUDS ABOUT AND PERHAPS A
MOUNTAIN FLURRY. STUCK TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
AROUND AT MSS AND WILL LIKELY STAY LOW AT SLK THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR
WITH CLOUDS GENERALLY LIFTING TO 15-25KFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-25KTS LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
FINALLY STABILIZING LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE
ELEVATION OF SLK... LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DROPS TO AROUND 2000 FEET. EXPECT CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO
AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING..

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW
SHOWERS LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

18Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE THURSDAY...

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 022059
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FADE AWAY MONDAY EVENING, LEAVING
BEHIND CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY AND END AS A LITTLE BIT OF MIX OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL BE MILD WEDNESDAY, BUT COLDER AIR RETURNS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...AS EXPECTED, CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA -- AS DENOTED BY THE VERY CELLULAR
STRUCTURE EVIDENT ON RADAR. GOOD NEWS IS THAT NONE OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY (THOUGH A 10-15 MINUTE
PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW WILL OCCUR) SO THEY SHOULD NOT IMPACT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS MUCH. WINDS ARE A BIT ON THE GUSTY SIDE, AND
I`VE SEEN A NUMBER OF 25-30KT GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION. AS WE GET
CLOSER TO SUNSET, WE`LL LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING AND ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING SO BOTH THE SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL FADE AWAY
GRACEFULLY.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT -- HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION,
SETTING UP SETTING UP FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR AND RATHER CHILLY NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL WITHIN THE +/- 5F RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
SOME "DEVIL IN THE DETAILS" REGARDING THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH DOES LEAD TO PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES. LET`S
JUST DISCUSS EACH 12-HOUR BLOCK OF TIME...

TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, SO WE START
CLEAR BUT CLOUD OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-12 TO -17C RANGE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO BY LATE AFTERNOON
WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW BREAK OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT: VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. 850MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 45-55KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THUS IT
SHOULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY, IF NOT WINDY, IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THINK WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
JET WILL BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT, WHICH RESULTS IN A STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN THE 8PM-
2AM TIMEFRAME PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE. AFTER THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-925MB LEVEL START TO SNEAK ABOVE 0C. THAT MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE OVER TO DIFFERENT PRECIP-TYPES. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT AS TYPICAL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENTS, MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER WITH PRIOR TO THE MIXING. MODELS ALSO
TYPICALLY SHOW US GETTING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN REALITY DURING THESE
WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEMS, SO I ENDED UP TAKING A MODEL BLEND AND
THEN CUTTING BACK A LITTLE. THINK IN GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.3" OF
"LIQUID", HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING/DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SO ONLY ABOUT 0.1" OR SO
THERE. TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO ESTIMATE THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIO.
BEST GUESS IS WE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 10-13:1 RANGE. THIS
GIVES A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW, PRIOR TO ANY MIXING HAPPENING. FOR
THE MIXING POTENTIAL, NOTED THE NAM, WHICH IS USUALLY A COLDER
MODEL, WAS WARMEST AND BROUGHT THE MIX ALL THE WAY UP TO NORTHERN
VT. GFS WAS COLDEST AND KEPT EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH OF VERMONT.
THE EURO AND THE LOCAL 12KM WRF WERE IN-BETWEEN. ENDED UP USING
THE 12KM WRF FOR A LITTLE FINER RESOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE, ANY MIX
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WE`LL
SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS HAVE A DIFFERENT TREND. A LITTLE NORTHWARD
JOG IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER (AND LIKELY WARMER)
SITUATION.

WEDNESDAY: LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF AND
END AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST EVERYONE. YEP, STILL LOOKING
FOR A WONDERFULLY WARM DAY -- WELL, IF YOU CAN CALL 40S WARM.
STUCK WITH A GUIDANCE MIX THAT HAS BURLINGTON REACHING THE LOWER
40S, BUT NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED MID TO EVEN UPPER 40S.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE COLDER AIR STARTS TO MAKE IT`S
WAY IN. GIVEN WINDS TURNING WESTERLY DURING THE DAY (EG:
DOWNSLOPING), AND A DRY SLOT LIKELY GIVING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, I`D GIVE UPPER 40S ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. MAYBE
THAT IS JUST ME WISH-CASTING ;)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
AND COLD-AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT, WITH LOWS CLOSER TO ZERO OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. STILL SOME WIND AND SOME CLOUDS ABOUT AND PERHAPS A
MOUNTAIN FLURRY. STUCK TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
AROUND AT MSS AND WILL LIKELY STAY LOW AT SLK THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR
WITH CLOUDS GENERALLY LIFTING TO 15-25KFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-25KTS LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
FINALLY STABILIZING LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE
ELEVATION OF SLK... LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DROPS TO AROUND 2000 FEET. EXPECT CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO
AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING..

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW
SHOWERS LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

18Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE THURSDAY...

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 022059
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FADE AWAY MONDAY EVENING, LEAVING
BEHIND CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY AND END AS A LITTLE BIT OF MIX OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL BE MILD WEDNESDAY, BUT COLDER AIR RETURNS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...AS EXPECTED, CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA -- AS DENOTED BY THE VERY CELLULAR
STRUCTURE EVIDENT ON RADAR. GOOD NEWS IS THAT NONE OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY (THOUGH A 10-15 MINUTE
PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW WILL OCCUR) SO THEY SHOULD NOT IMPACT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS MUCH. WINDS ARE A BIT ON THE GUSTY SIDE, AND
I`VE SEEN A NUMBER OF 25-30KT GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION. AS WE GET
CLOSER TO SUNSET, WE`LL LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING AND ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING SO BOTH THE SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL FADE AWAY
GRACEFULLY.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT -- HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION,
SETTING UP SETTING UP FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR AND RATHER CHILLY NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL WITHIN THE +/- 5F RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
SOME "DEVIL IN THE DETAILS" REGARDING THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH DOES LEAD TO PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES. LET`S
JUST DISCUSS EACH 12-HOUR BLOCK OF TIME...

TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, SO WE START
CLEAR BUT CLOUD OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-12 TO -17C RANGE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO BY LATE AFTERNOON
WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW BREAK OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT: VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. 850MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 45-55KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THUS IT
SHOULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY, IF NOT WINDY, IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THINK WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
JET WILL BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT, WHICH RESULTS IN A STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN THE 8PM-
2AM TIMEFRAME PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE. AFTER THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-925MB LEVEL START TO SNEAK ABOVE 0C. THAT MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE OVER TO DIFFERENT PRECIP-TYPES. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT AS TYPICAL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENTS, MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER WITH PRIOR TO THE MIXING. MODELS ALSO
TYPICALLY SHOW US GETTING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN REALITY DURING THESE
WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEMS, SO I ENDED UP TAKING A MODEL BLEND AND
THEN CUTTING BACK A LITTLE. THINK IN GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.3" OF
"LIQUID", HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING/DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SO ONLY ABOUT 0.1" OR SO
THERE. TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO ESTIMATE THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIO.
BEST GUESS IS WE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 10-13:1 RANGE. THIS
GIVES A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW, PRIOR TO ANY MIXING HAPPENING. FOR
THE MIXING POTENTIAL, NOTED THE NAM, WHICH IS USUALLY A COLDER
MODEL, WAS WARMEST AND BROUGHT THE MIX ALL THE WAY UP TO NORTHERN
VT. GFS WAS COLDEST AND KEPT EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH OF VERMONT.
THE EURO AND THE LOCAL 12KM WRF WERE IN-BETWEEN. ENDED UP USING
THE 12KM WRF FOR A LITTLE FINER RESOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE, ANY MIX
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WE`LL
SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS HAVE A DIFFERENT TREND. A LITTLE NORTHWARD
JOG IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER (AND LIKELY WARMER)
SITUATION.

WEDNESDAY: LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF AND
END AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST EVERYONE. YEP, STILL LOOKING
FOR A WONDERFULLY WARM DAY -- WELL, IF YOU CAN CALL 40S WARM.
STUCK WITH A GUIDANCE MIX THAT HAS BURLINGTON REACHING THE LOWER
40S, BUT NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED MID TO EVEN UPPER 40S.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE COLDER AIR STARTS TO MAKE IT`S
WAY IN. GIVEN WINDS TURNING WESTERLY DURING THE DAY (EG:
DOWNSLOPING), AND A DRY SLOT LIKELY GIVING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, I`D GIVE UPPER 40S ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. MAYBE
THAT IS JUST ME WISH-CASTING ;)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
AND COLD-AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT, WITH LOWS CLOSER TO ZERO OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. STILL SOME WIND AND SOME CLOUDS ABOUT AND PERHAPS A
MOUNTAIN FLURRY. STUCK TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
AROUND AT MSS AND WILL LIKELY STAY LOW AT SLK THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR
WITH CLOUDS GENERALLY LIFTING TO 15-25KFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-25KTS LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
FINALLY STABILIZING LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE
ELEVATION OF SLK... LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DROPS TO AROUND 2000 FEET. EXPECT CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO
AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING..

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW
SHOWERS LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

18Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE THURSDAY...

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 022059
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FADE AWAY MONDAY EVENING, LEAVING
BEHIND CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY AND END AS A LITTLE BIT OF MIX OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL BE MILD WEDNESDAY, BUT COLDER AIR RETURNS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...AS EXPECTED, CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA -- AS DENOTED BY THE VERY CELLULAR
STRUCTURE EVIDENT ON RADAR. GOOD NEWS IS THAT NONE OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY (THOUGH A 10-15 MINUTE
PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW WILL OCCUR) SO THEY SHOULD NOT IMPACT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS MUCH. WINDS ARE A BIT ON THE GUSTY SIDE, AND
I`VE SEEN A NUMBER OF 25-30KT GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION. AS WE GET
CLOSER TO SUNSET, WE`LL LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING AND ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING SO BOTH THE SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL FADE AWAY
GRACEFULLY.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT -- HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION,
SETTING UP SETTING UP FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR AND RATHER CHILLY NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL WITHIN THE +/- 5F RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
SOME "DEVIL IN THE DETAILS" REGARDING THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH DOES LEAD TO PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES. LET`S
JUST DISCUSS EACH 12-HOUR BLOCK OF TIME...

TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, SO WE START
CLEAR BUT CLOUD OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-12 TO -17C RANGE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO BY LATE AFTERNOON
WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW BREAK OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT: VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. 850MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 45-55KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THUS IT
SHOULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY, IF NOT WINDY, IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THINK WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
JET WILL BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT, WHICH RESULTS IN A STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN THE 8PM-
2AM TIMEFRAME PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE. AFTER THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-925MB LEVEL START TO SNEAK ABOVE 0C. THAT MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE OVER TO DIFFERENT PRECIP-TYPES. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT AS TYPICAL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENTS, MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER WITH PRIOR TO THE MIXING. MODELS ALSO
TYPICALLY SHOW US GETTING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN REALITY DURING THESE
WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEMS, SO I ENDED UP TAKING A MODEL BLEND AND
THEN CUTTING BACK A LITTLE. THINK IN GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.3" OF
"LIQUID", HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING/DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SO ONLY ABOUT 0.1" OR SO
THERE. TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO ESTIMATE THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIO.
BEST GUESS IS WE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 10-13:1 RANGE. THIS
GIVES A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW, PRIOR TO ANY MIXING HAPPENING. FOR
THE MIXING POTENTIAL, NOTED THE NAM, WHICH IS USUALLY A COLDER
MODEL, WAS WARMEST AND BROUGHT THE MIX ALL THE WAY UP TO NORTHERN
VT. GFS WAS COLDEST AND KEPT EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH OF VERMONT.
THE EURO AND THE LOCAL 12KM WRF WERE IN-BETWEEN. ENDED UP USING
THE 12KM WRF FOR A LITTLE FINER RESOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE, ANY MIX
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WE`LL
SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS HAVE A DIFFERENT TREND. A LITTLE NORTHWARD
JOG IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER (AND LIKELY WARMER)
SITUATION.

WEDNESDAY: LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF AND
END AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST EVERYONE. YEP, STILL LOOKING
FOR A WONDERFULLY WARM DAY -- WELL, IF YOU CAN CALL 40S WARM.
STUCK WITH A GUIDANCE MIX THAT HAS BURLINGTON REACHING THE LOWER
40S, BUT NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED MID TO EVEN UPPER 40S.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE COLDER AIR STARTS TO MAKE IT`S
WAY IN. GIVEN WINDS TURNING WESTERLY DURING THE DAY (EG:
DOWNSLOPING), AND A DRY SLOT LIKELY GIVING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, I`D GIVE UPPER 40S ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. MAYBE
THAT IS JUST ME WISH-CASTING ;)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
AND COLD-AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT, WITH LOWS CLOSER TO ZERO OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. STILL SOME WIND AND SOME CLOUDS ABOUT AND PERHAPS A
MOUNTAIN FLURRY. STUCK TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
AROUND AT MSS AND WILL LIKELY STAY LOW AT SLK THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR
WITH CLOUDS GENERALLY LIFTING TO 15-25KFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-25KTS LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
FINALLY STABILIZING LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE
ELEVATION OF SLK... LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DROPS TO AROUND 2000 FEET. EXPECT CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO
AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING..

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW
SHOWERS LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

18Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE THURSDAY...

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 022059
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
359 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG IT KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
OUR REGION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND TREND TO CALM BY
DAYBREAK. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS WELL. THE LIGHT WINDS LATE AT NIGHT COUPLED WITH A CLEAR
SKY AND FRESH SNOW COVER WILL RESULT IN LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5
ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE OF AROUND AN INCH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 2-6 INCHES
OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. FROM LATE
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE TRANSITION WILL TAKE
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES FIRST AND NORTHWEST ZONES LAST. THIS
TRANISTION IS SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP
A DEGREE OR TWO TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN RISE NIGHT...THEN RISE
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDINESS AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID
40S IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A SFC FRONT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CNTRL- ERN CONUS. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS/CMC GUIDANCE HAVE SOME LIGHT
OVER RUNNING PCPN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE
THAN THE GFS. A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE JET
STREAM IN THE SW FLOW. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE USED SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
/1-3 INCHES ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY/. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY COOL
DOWN INTO THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT READINGS OVER THE MTNS.
A FEW BELOW ZERO READINGS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

THU-FRI...A SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON
THU. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD START TO DIMINISH FOR THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT IN THE MORNING.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN AND OH VALLEYS THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -18C TO -22C ACCORDING TO
THE GFS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.  HIGHS ON THU WILL STILL
RUN ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY LOWER TO MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.  CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE OVER THE MTNS.  HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE VERY COLD AGAIN IN THE FRIGID AIR MASS...IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE MTNS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WITH A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED...AND MORE ZONAL...AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE ONTARIO. THE BEST
CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY NW OF THE
GREATER CAPITAL REGION WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEMS
WARM FRONT.  H850 TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO -7C TO -11C.  AFTER A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...EXPECT HIGHS
TO RISE CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT STILL A LITTLE BELOW...WITH MID AND
U30S IN THE MAINLY OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND U20S TO L30S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SAT NIGHT TO SUNDAY...THE CLIPPER PASSES TO THE NORTH WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PCPN.  A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE
FORECAST OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS...AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SAT...WITH A SFC HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND S-
CNTRL CANADA TO OPEN THE NEXT WORK WEEK.  THE WARM FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WITH IT FOR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.  AGAIN...IT IS
DAY 7...AND IT IS OUT A WAYS...SO SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS ARE
INCLUDED.  THE QUESTION WILL BE WHAT EXACT TRACK THIS CYCLONE WILL
TAKE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN EVENT.  TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW
NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 OR SO DEGREES TO CLOSE THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
REGION...THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AROUND.
MOST OF THESE WILL BE LOCATED OVER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...SO EXPECT
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT FOR VSBYS/CIGS AT THE VALLEY TERMINALS...WITH
PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KPSF OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...BKN-OVC CIGS OF 3500-5000 FT WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS. NW WINDS OF 10-20
KTS WILL GUSTS 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL
START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH AND BECOME NEARLY CALM TOWARDS MIDNIGHT -
2AM. ALSO...SKIES WILL BECOME NEARLY CLEAR AS WELL FOR ALL SITES.

SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY MORNING...AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHES THE AREA. SKIES WILL
BECOME BKN-OVC BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP ARRIVING
LATER IN THE DAY IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

OUTLOOK...

TUE PM: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/PL/FZRA.
WED NT- THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHRA.
FRI-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES... AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...11/NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 022059
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
359 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG IT KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
OUR REGION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND TREND TO CALM BY
DAYBREAK. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS WELL. THE LIGHT WINDS LATE AT NIGHT COUPLED WITH A CLEAR
SKY AND FRESH SNOW COVER WILL RESULT IN LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5
ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE OF AROUND AN INCH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 2-6 INCHES
OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. FROM LATE
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE TRANSITION WILL TAKE
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES FIRST AND NORTHWEST ZONES LAST. THIS
TRANISTION IS SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP
A DEGREE OR TWO TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN RISE NIGHT...THEN RISE
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDINESS AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID
40S IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A SFC FRONT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CNTRL- ERN CONUS. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS/CMC GUIDANCE HAVE SOME LIGHT
OVER RUNNING PCPN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE
THAN THE GFS. A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE JET
STREAM IN THE SW FLOW. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE USED SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
/1-3 INCHES ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY/. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY COOL
DOWN INTO THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT READINGS OVER THE MTNS.
A FEW BELOW ZERO READINGS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

THU-FRI...A SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON
THU. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD START TO DIMINISH FOR THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT IN THE MORNING.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN AND OH VALLEYS THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -18C TO -22C ACCORDING TO
THE GFS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.  HIGHS ON THU WILL STILL
RUN ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY LOWER TO MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.  CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE OVER THE MTNS.  HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE VERY COLD AGAIN IN THE FRIGID AIR MASS...IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE MTNS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WITH A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED...AND MORE ZONAL...AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE ONTARIO. THE BEST
CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY NW OF THE
GREATER CAPITAL REGION WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEMS
WARM FRONT.  H850 TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO -7C TO -11C.  AFTER A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...EXPECT HIGHS
TO RISE CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT STILL A LITTLE BELOW...WITH MID AND
U30S IN THE MAINLY OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND U20S TO L30S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SAT NIGHT TO SUNDAY...THE CLIPPER PASSES TO THE NORTH WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PCPN.  A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE
FORECAST OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS...AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SAT...WITH A SFC HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND S-
CNTRL CANADA TO OPEN THE NEXT WORK WEEK.  THE WARM FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WITH IT FOR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.  AGAIN...IT IS
DAY 7...AND IT IS OUT A WAYS...SO SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS ARE
INCLUDED.  THE QUESTION WILL BE WHAT EXACT TRACK THIS CYCLONE WILL
TAKE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN EVENT.  TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW
NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 OR SO DEGREES TO CLOSE THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
REGION...THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AROUND.
MOST OF THESE WILL BE LOCATED OVER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...SO EXPECT
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT FOR VSBYS/CIGS AT THE VALLEY TERMINALS...WITH
PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KPSF OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...BKN-OVC CIGS OF 3500-5000 FT WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS. NW WINDS OF 10-20
KTS WILL GUSTS 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL
START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH AND BECOME NEARLY CALM TOWARDS MIDNIGHT -
2AM. ALSO...SKIES WILL BECOME NEARLY CLEAR AS WELL FOR ALL SITES.

SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY MORNING...AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHES THE AREA. SKIES WILL
BECOME BKN-OVC BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP ARRIVING
LATER IN THE DAY IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

OUTLOOK...

TUE PM: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/PL/FZRA.
WED NT- THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHRA.
FRI-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES... AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...11/NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 022059
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
359 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG IT KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
OUR REGION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND TREND TO CALM BY
DAYBREAK. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS WELL. THE LIGHT WINDS LATE AT NIGHT COUPLED WITH A CLEAR
SKY AND FRESH SNOW COVER WILL RESULT IN LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5
ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE OF AROUND AN INCH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 2-6 INCHES
OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. FROM LATE
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE TRANSITION WILL TAKE
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES FIRST AND NORTHWEST ZONES LAST. THIS
TRANISTION IS SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP
A DEGREE OR TWO TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN RISE NIGHT...THEN RISE
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDINESS AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID
40S IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A SFC FRONT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CNTRL- ERN CONUS. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS/CMC GUIDANCE HAVE SOME LIGHT
OVER RUNNING PCPN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE
THAN THE GFS. A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE JET
STREAM IN THE SW FLOW. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE USED SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
/1-3 INCHES ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY/. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY COOL
DOWN INTO THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT READINGS OVER THE MTNS.
A FEW BELOW ZERO READINGS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

THU-FRI...A SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON
THU. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD START TO DIMINISH FOR THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT IN THE MORNING.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN AND OH VALLEYS THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -18C TO -22C ACCORDING TO
THE GFS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.  HIGHS ON THU WILL STILL
RUN ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY LOWER TO MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.  CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE OVER THE MTNS.  HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE VERY COLD AGAIN IN THE FRIGID AIR MASS...IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE MTNS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WITH A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED...AND MORE ZONAL...AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE ONTARIO. THE BEST
CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY NW OF THE
GREATER CAPITAL REGION WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEMS
WARM FRONT.  H850 TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO -7C TO -11C.  AFTER A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...EXPECT HIGHS
TO RISE CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT STILL A LITTLE BELOW...WITH MID AND
U30S IN THE MAINLY OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND U20S TO L30S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SAT NIGHT TO SUNDAY...THE CLIPPER PASSES TO THE NORTH WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PCPN.  A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE
FORECAST OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS...AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SAT...WITH A SFC HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND S-
CNTRL CANADA TO OPEN THE NEXT WORK WEEK.  THE WARM FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WITH IT FOR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.  AGAIN...IT IS
DAY 7...AND IT IS OUT A WAYS...SO SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS ARE
INCLUDED.  THE QUESTION WILL BE WHAT EXACT TRACK THIS CYCLONE WILL
TAKE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN EVENT.  TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW
NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 OR SO DEGREES TO CLOSE THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
REGION...THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AROUND.
MOST OF THESE WILL BE LOCATED OVER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...SO EXPECT
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT FOR VSBYS/CIGS AT THE VALLEY TERMINALS...WITH
PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KPSF OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...BKN-OVC CIGS OF 3500-5000 FT WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS. NW WINDS OF 10-20
KTS WILL GUSTS 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL
START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH AND BECOME NEARLY CALM TOWARDS MIDNIGHT -
2AM. ALSO...SKIES WILL BECOME NEARLY CLEAR AS WELL FOR ALL SITES.

SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY MORNING...AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHES THE AREA. SKIES WILL
BECOME BKN-OVC BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP ARRIVING
LATER IN THE DAY IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

OUTLOOK...

TUE PM: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/PL/FZRA.
WED NT- THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHRA.
FRI-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES... AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...11/NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 022059
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FADE AWAY MONDAY EVENING, LEAVING
BEHIND CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY AND END AS A LITTLE BIT OF MIX OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL BE MILD WEDNESDAY, BUT COLDER AIR RETURNS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...AS EXPECTED, CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA -- AS DENOTED BY THE VERY CELLULAR
STRUCTURE EVIDENT ON RADAR. GOOD NEWS IS THAT NONE OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY (THOUGH A 10-15 MINUTE
PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW WILL OCCUR) SO THEY SHOULD NOT IMPACT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS MUCH. WINDS ARE A BIT ON THE GUSTY SIDE, AND
I`VE SEEN A NUMBER OF 25-30KT GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION. AS WE GET
CLOSER TO SUNSET, WE`LL LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING AND ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING SO BOTH THE SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL FADE AWAY
GRACEFULLY.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT -- HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION,
SETTING UP SETTING UP FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR AND RATHER CHILLY NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL WITHIN THE +/- 5F RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
SOME "DEVIL IN THE DETAILS" REGARDING THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH DOES LEAD TO PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES. LET`S
JUST DISCUSS EACH 12-HOUR BLOCK OF TIME...

TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, SO WE START
CLEAR BUT CLOUD OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-12 TO -17C RANGE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO BY LATE AFTERNOON
WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW BREAK OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT: VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. 850MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 45-55KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THUS IT
SHOULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY, IF NOT WINDY, IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THINK WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
JET WILL BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT, WHICH RESULTS IN A STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN THE 8PM-
2AM TIMEFRAME PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE. AFTER THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-925MB LEVEL START TO SNEAK ABOVE 0C. THAT MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE OVER TO DIFFERENT PRECIP-TYPES. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT AS TYPICAL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENTS, MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER WITH PRIOR TO THE MIXING. MODELS ALSO
TYPICALLY SHOW US GETTING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN REALITY DURING THESE
WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEMS, SO I ENDED UP TAKING A MODEL BLEND AND
THEN CUTTING BACK A LITTLE. THINK IN GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.3" OF
"LIQUID", HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING/DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SO ONLY ABOUT 0.1" OR SO
THERE. TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO ESTIMATE THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIO.
BEST GUESS IS WE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 10-13:1 RANGE. THIS
GIVES A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW, PRIOR TO ANY MIXING HAPPENING. FOR
THE MIXING POTENTIAL, NOTED THE NAM, WHICH IS USUALLY A COLDER
MODEL, WAS WARMEST AND BROUGHT THE MIX ALL THE WAY UP TO NORTHERN
VT. GFS WAS COLDEST AND KEPT EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH OF VERMONT.
THE EURO AND THE LOCAL 12KM WRF WERE IN-BETWEEN. ENDED UP USING
THE 12KM WRF FOR A LITTLE FINER RESOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE, ANY MIX
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WE`LL
SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS HAVE A DIFFERENT TREND. A LITTLE NORTHWARD
JOG IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER (AND LIKELY WARMER)
SITUATION.

WEDNESDAY: LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF AND
END AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST EVERYONE. YEP, STILL LOOKING
FOR A WONDERFULLY WARM DAY -- WELL, IF YOU CAN CALL 40S WARM.
STUCK WITH A GUIDANCE MIX THAT HAS BURLINGTON REACHING THE LOWER
40S, BUT NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED MID TO EVEN UPPER 40S.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE COLDER AIR STARTS TO MAKE IT`S
WAY IN. GIVEN WINDS TURNING WESTERLY DURING THE DAY (EG:
DOWNSLOPING), AND A DRY SLOT LIKELY GIVING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, I`D GIVE UPPER 40S ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. MAYBE
THAT IS JUST ME WISH-CASTING ;)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
AND COLD-AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT, WITH LOWS CLOSER TO ZERO OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. STILL SOME WIND AND SOME CLOUDS ABOUT AND PERHAPS A
MOUNTAIN FLURRY. STUCK TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
AROUND AT MSS AND WILL LIKELY STAY LOW AT SLK THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR
WITH CLOUDS GENERALLY LIFTING TO 15-25KFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-25KTS LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
FINALLY STABILIZING LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE
ELEVATION OF SLK... LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DROPS TO AROUND 2000 FEET. EXPECT CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO
AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING..

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW
SHOWERS LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

18Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE THURSDAY...

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL



000
FXUS61 KALY 022059
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
359 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG IT KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
OUR REGION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND TREND TO CALM BY
DAYBREAK. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS WELL. THE LIGHT WINDS LATE AT NIGHT COUPLED WITH A CLEAR
SKY AND FRESH SNOW COVER WILL RESULT IN LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5
ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE OF AROUND AN INCH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 2-6 INCHES
OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. FROM LATE
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE TRANSITION WILL TAKE
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES FIRST AND NORTHWEST ZONES LAST. THIS
TRANISTION IS SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP
A DEGREE OR TWO TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN RISE NIGHT...THEN RISE
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDINESS AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID
40S IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A SFC FRONT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CNTRL- ERN CONUS. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS/CMC GUIDANCE HAVE SOME LIGHT
OVER RUNNING PCPN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE
THAN THE GFS. A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE JET
STREAM IN THE SW FLOW. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE USED SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
/1-3 INCHES ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY/. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY COOL
DOWN INTO THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT READINGS OVER THE MTNS.
A FEW BELOW ZERO READINGS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

THU-FRI...A SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON
THU. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD START TO DIMINISH FOR THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT IN THE MORNING.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN AND OH VALLEYS THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -18C TO -22C ACCORDING TO
THE GFS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.  HIGHS ON THU WILL STILL
RUN ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY LOWER TO MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.  CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE OVER THE MTNS.  HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE VERY COLD AGAIN IN THE FRIGID AIR MASS...IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE MTNS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WITH A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED...AND MORE ZONAL...AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE ONTARIO. THE BEST
CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY NW OF THE
GREATER CAPITAL REGION WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEMS
WARM FRONT.  H850 TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO -7C TO -11C.  AFTER A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...EXPECT HIGHS
TO RISE CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT STILL A LITTLE BELOW...WITH MID AND
U30S IN THE MAINLY OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND U20S TO L30S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SAT NIGHT TO SUNDAY...THE CLIPPER PASSES TO THE NORTH WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PCPN.  A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE
FORECAST OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS...AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SAT...WITH A SFC HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND S-
CNTRL CANADA TO OPEN THE NEXT WORK WEEK.  THE WARM FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WITH IT FOR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.  AGAIN...IT IS
DAY 7...AND IT IS OUT A WAYS...SO SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS ARE
INCLUDED.  THE QUESTION WILL BE WHAT EXACT TRACK THIS CYCLONE WILL
TAKE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN EVENT.  TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW
NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 OR SO DEGREES TO CLOSE THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
REGION...THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AROUND.
MOST OF THESE WILL BE LOCATED OVER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...SO EXPECT
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT FOR VSBYS/CIGS AT THE VALLEY TERMINALS...WITH
PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KPSF OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...BKN-OVC CIGS OF 3500-5000 FT WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS. NW WINDS OF 10-20
KTS WILL GUSTS 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL
START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH AND BECOME NEARLY CALM TOWARDS MIDNIGHT -
2AM. ALSO...SKIES WILL BECOME NEARLY CLEAR AS WELL FOR ALL SITES.

SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY MORNING...AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHES THE AREA. SKIES WILL
BECOME BKN-OVC BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP ARRIVING
LATER IN THE DAY IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

OUTLOOK...

TUE PM: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/PL/FZRA.
WED NT- THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHRA.
FRI-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES... AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...11/NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 022059
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL FADE AWAY MONDAY EVENING, LEAVING
BEHIND CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY AND END AS A LITTLE BIT OF MIX OR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL BE MILD WEDNESDAY, BUT COLDER AIR RETURNS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...AS EXPECTED, CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA -- AS DENOTED BY THE VERY CELLULAR
STRUCTURE EVIDENT ON RADAR. GOOD NEWS IS THAT NONE OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY (THOUGH A 10-15 MINUTE
PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW WILL OCCUR) SO THEY SHOULD NOT IMPACT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS MUCH. WINDS ARE A BIT ON THE GUSTY SIDE, AND
I`VE SEEN A NUMBER OF 25-30KT GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION. AS WE GET
CLOSER TO SUNSET, WE`LL LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING AND ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING SO BOTH THE SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL FADE AWAY
GRACEFULLY.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT -- HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION,
SETTING UP SETTING UP FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR AND RATHER CHILLY NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL WITHIN THE +/- 5F RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, THOUGH
SOME "DEVIL IN THE DETAILS" REGARDING THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH DOES LEAD TO PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES. LET`S
JUST DISCUSS EACH 12-HOUR BLOCK OF TIME...

TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, SO WE START
CLEAR BUT CLOUD OVER IN THE AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-12 TO -17C RANGE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO BY LATE AFTERNOON
WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW BREAK OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WESTWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT: VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. 850MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 45-55KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THUS IT
SHOULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY, IF NOT WINDY, IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THINK WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
JET WILL BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT, WHICH RESULTS IN A STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOULD SEE A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW IN THE 8PM-
2AM TIMEFRAME PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE. AFTER THAT TIME, TEMPERATURES
IN THE 800-925MB LEVEL START TO SNEAK ABOVE 0C. THAT MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CHANGE OVER TO DIFFERENT PRECIP-TYPES. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT AS TYPICAL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENTS, MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OVER WITH PRIOR TO THE MIXING. MODELS ALSO
TYPICALLY SHOW US GETTING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN REALITY DURING THESE
WARM AIR ADVECTION SYSTEMS, SO I ENDED UP TAKING A MODEL BLEND AND
THEN CUTTING BACK A LITTLE. THINK IN GENERAL 0.2 TO 0.3" OF
"LIQUID", HOWEVER THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SHADOWING/DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, SO ONLY ABOUT 0.1" OR SO
THERE. TRICKY PART IS TRYING TO ESTIMATE THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIO.
BEST GUESS IS WE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 10-13:1 RANGE. THIS
GIVES A GENERAL 2-4" OF SNOW, PRIOR TO ANY MIXING HAPPENING. FOR
THE MIXING POTENTIAL, NOTED THE NAM, WHICH IS USUALLY A COLDER
MODEL, WAS WARMEST AND BROUGHT THE MIX ALL THE WAY UP TO NORTHERN
VT. GFS WAS COLDEST AND KEPT EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH OF VERMONT.
THE EURO AND THE LOCAL 12KM WRF WERE IN-BETWEEN. ENDED UP USING
THE 12KM WRF FOR A LITTLE FINER RESOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE, ANY MIX
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

AT THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. WE`LL
SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS HAVE A DIFFERENT TREND. A LITTLE NORTHWARD
JOG IN THE MODELS WOULD MEAN A MUCH WETTER (AND LIKELY WARMER)
SITUATION.

WEDNESDAY: LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF AND
END AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST EVERYONE. YEP, STILL LOOKING
FOR A WONDERFULLY WARM DAY -- WELL, IF YOU CAN CALL 40S WARM.
STUCK WITH A GUIDANCE MIX THAT HAS BURLINGTON REACHING THE LOWER
40S, BUT NOTED THAT SOME GUIDANCE INDICATED MID TO EVEN UPPER 40S.
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW SOON THE COLDER AIR STARTS TO MAKE IT`S
WAY IN. GIVEN WINDS TURNING WESTERLY DURING THE DAY (EG:
DOWNSLOPING), AND A DRY SLOT LIKELY GIVING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, I`D GIVE UPPER 40S ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. MAYBE
THAT IS JUST ME WISH-CASTING ;)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST
AND COLD-AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS VERMONT, WITH LOWS CLOSER TO ZERO OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. STILL SOME WIND AND SOME CLOUDS ABOUT AND PERHAPS A
MOUNTAIN FLURRY. STUCK TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
AROUND AT MSS AND WILL LIKELY STAY LOW AT SLK THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR
WITH CLOUDS GENERALLY LIFTING TO 15-25KFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-25KTS LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
FINALLY STABILIZING LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE
ELEVATION OF SLK... LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DROPS TO AROUND 2000 FEET. EXPECT CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO
AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING..

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW
SHOWERS LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

18Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE THURSDAY...

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 022016
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
316 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1211 PM EST MONDAY...NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WITH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON UPDATE. FOLDED IN THE CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS INTO
THE FORECAST. STILL ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA, AND A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND. ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ABOUT AT OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY, ANTICIPATE STEADLY TO SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINED OF THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION STARTS TO DEVELOP.

HERE`S THE REST OF MY RAMBLING THOUGHTS FROM EARLIER...

WITH THE INCREASING SUN, AND IT`S NOW GOT MORE HEATING POWER THAN
JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO, SURFACE HEATING WILL GENERATE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH, WILL GENERATE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (IE: SNOW
SQUALLS). GUIDANCE INDICATES WE WILL HAVE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE. BUFKIT BASED SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND AN INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE, WHICH TELLS ME THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WE DO SEE COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS. JUST ON THE DEEP MIXING (PERHAPS
UP TO 5000FT) ALONE, WE WILL BE TAPPING INTO WINDS OF 30-40KTS.
HAVE INCREASED THE OVERALL WIND GUSTS INTO THE 35-40MPH RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THE SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ASPECT, THEY WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE, AND PROBABLY CONFINED A BIT MORE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEY WON`T LAST LONG IN ANY SPOT -- PERHAPS 15 TO 30 MINUTES, BUT
COULD PUT DOWN 1/2" OF SNOW IN THAT TIME. THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED
SNOW SQUALL INDEX (AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE BY VIEWING THE 12KM
AND 4KM WRF MODEL OUTPUT VIA THE "MODEL DATA" LINK DOWN AT THE
VERY BOTTOM OF THE PAGE) HIGHLIGHT THE 18-22Z PERIOD AS THE
PRIMARY TIME FOR THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE NOTED THAT OUR
NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH HAVE ISSUED SOME SNOW SQUALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF QUEBEC, HOWEVER WE IN THE NWS HAVE NO
SUCH PRODUCT. INSTEAD MAY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
AROUND AT MSS AND WILL LIKELY STAY LOW AT SLK THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR
WITH CLOUDS GENERALLY LIFTING TO 15-25KFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-25KTS LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
FINALLY STABILIZING LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE
ELEVATION OF SLK... LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DROPS TO AROUND 2000 FEET. EXPECT CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO
AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING..

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW
SHOWERS LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

18Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE THURSDAY...

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 022016
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
316 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1211 PM EST MONDAY...NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WITH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON UPDATE. FOLDED IN THE CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS INTO
THE FORECAST. STILL ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA, AND A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND. ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ABOUT AT OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY, ANTICIPATE STEADLY TO SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINED OF THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION STARTS TO DEVELOP.

HERE`S THE REST OF MY RAMBLING THOUGHTS FROM EARLIER...

WITH THE INCREASING SUN, AND IT`S NOW GOT MORE HEATING POWER THAN
JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO, SURFACE HEATING WILL GENERATE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH, WILL GENERATE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (IE: SNOW
SQUALLS). GUIDANCE INDICATES WE WILL HAVE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE. BUFKIT BASED SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND AN INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE, WHICH TELLS ME THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WE DO SEE COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS. JUST ON THE DEEP MIXING (PERHAPS
UP TO 5000FT) ALONE, WE WILL BE TAPPING INTO WINDS OF 30-40KTS.
HAVE INCREASED THE OVERALL WIND GUSTS INTO THE 35-40MPH RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THE SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ASPECT, THEY WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE, AND PROBABLY CONFINED A BIT MORE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEY WON`T LAST LONG IN ANY SPOT -- PERHAPS 15 TO 30 MINUTES, BUT
COULD PUT DOWN 1/2" OF SNOW IN THAT TIME. THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED
SNOW SQUALL INDEX (AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE BY VIEWING THE 12KM
AND 4KM WRF MODEL OUTPUT VIA THE "MODEL DATA" LINK DOWN AT THE
VERY BOTTOM OF THE PAGE) HIGHLIGHT THE 18-22Z PERIOD AS THE
PRIMARY TIME FOR THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE NOTED THAT OUR
NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH HAVE ISSUED SOME SNOW SQUALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF QUEBEC, HOWEVER WE IN THE NWS HAVE NO
SUCH PRODUCT. INSTEAD MAY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
AROUND AT MSS AND WILL LIKELY STAY LOW AT SLK THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR
WITH CLOUDS GENERALLY LIFTING TO 15-25KFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-25KTS LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
FINALLY STABILIZING LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE
ELEVATION OF SLK... LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DROPS TO AROUND 2000 FEET. EXPECT CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO
AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING..

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW
SHOWERS LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

18Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE THURSDAY...

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 022016
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
316 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1211 PM EST MONDAY...NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WITH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON UPDATE. FOLDED IN THE CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS INTO
THE FORECAST. STILL ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA, AND A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND. ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ABOUT AT OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY, ANTICIPATE STEADLY TO SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINED OF THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION STARTS TO DEVELOP.

HERE`S THE REST OF MY RAMBLING THOUGHTS FROM EARLIER...

WITH THE INCREASING SUN, AND IT`S NOW GOT MORE HEATING POWER THAN
JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO, SURFACE HEATING WILL GENERATE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH, WILL GENERATE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (IE: SNOW
SQUALLS). GUIDANCE INDICATES WE WILL HAVE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE. BUFKIT BASED SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND AN INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE, WHICH TELLS ME THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WE DO SEE COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS. JUST ON THE DEEP MIXING (PERHAPS
UP TO 5000FT) ALONE, WE WILL BE TAPPING INTO WINDS OF 30-40KTS.
HAVE INCREASED THE OVERALL WIND GUSTS INTO THE 35-40MPH RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THE SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ASPECT, THEY WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE, AND PROBABLY CONFINED A BIT MORE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEY WON`T LAST LONG IN ANY SPOT -- PERHAPS 15 TO 30 MINUTES, BUT
COULD PUT DOWN 1/2" OF SNOW IN THAT TIME. THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED
SNOW SQUALL INDEX (AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE BY VIEWING THE 12KM
AND 4KM WRF MODEL OUTPUT VIA THE "MODEL DATA" LINK DOWN AT THE
VERY BOTTOM OF THE PAGE) HIGHLIGHT THE 18-22Z PERIOD AS THE
PRIMARY TIME FOR THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE NOTED THAT OUR
NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH HAVE ISSUED SOME SNOW SQUALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF QUEBEC, HOWEVER WE IN THE NWS HAVE NO
SUCH PRODUCT. INSTEAD MAY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
AROUND AT MSS AND WILL LIKELY STAY LOW AT SLK THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR
WITH CLOUDS GENERALLY LIFTING TO 15-25KFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-25KTS LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
FINALLY STABILIZING LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE
ELEVATION OF SLK... LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DROPS TO AROUND 2000 FEET. EXPECT CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO
AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING..

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW
SHOWERS LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

18Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE THURSDAY...

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 022016
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
316 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1211 PM EST MONDAY...NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WITH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON UPDATE. FOLDED IN THE CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS INTO
THE FORECAST. STILL ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA, AND A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND. ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ABOUT AT OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY, ANTICIPATE STEADLY TO SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINED OF THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION STARTS TO DEVELOP.

HERE`S THE REST OF MY RAMBLING THOUGHTS FROM EARLIER...

WITH THE INCREASING SUN, AND IT`S NOW GOT MORE HEATING POWER THAN
JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO, SURFACE HEATING WILL GENERATE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH, WILL GENERATE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (IE: SNOW
SQUALLS). GUIDANCE INDICATES WE WILL HAVE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE. BUFKIT BASED SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND AN INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE, WHICH TELLS ME THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WE DO SEE COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS. JUST ON THE DEEP MIXING (PERHAPS
UP TO 5000FT) ALONE, WE WILL BE TAPPING INTO WINDS OF 30-40KTS.
HAVE INCREASED THE OVERALL WIND GUSTS INTO THE 35-40MPH RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THE SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ASPECT, THEY WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE, AND PROBABLY CONFINED A BIT MORE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEY WON`T LAST LONG IN ANY SPOT -- PERHAPS 15 TO 30 MINUTES, BUT
COULD PUT DOWN 1/2" OF SNOW IN THAT TIME. THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED
SNOW SQUALL INDEX (AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE BY VIEWING THE 12KM
AND 4KM WRF MODEL OUTPUT VIA THE "MODEL DATA" LINK DOWN AT THE
VERY BOTTOM OF THE PAGE) HIGHLIGHT THE 18-22Z PERIOD AS THE
PRIMARY TIME FOR THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE NOTED THAT OUR
NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH HAVE ISSUED SOME SNOW SQUALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF QUEBEC, HOWEVER WE IN THE NWS HAVE NO
SUCH PRODUCT. INSTEAD MAY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY... GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVE WEATHER
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED I`LL FORGO DAILY DESCRIPTIONS IN FAVOR OF
A BROAD GENERAL IDEA OF THE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. A BROAD
NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO SUPPRESS ANY SYNOPTIC FORCING OF PRECIP WITH THE LONE
EXCEPTION BEING A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES... WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
WITH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEING THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S WARMING TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
TO THE MID 30S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING BRING LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 20 INSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
AROUND AT MSS AND WILL LIKELY STAY LOW AT SLK THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR
WITH CLOUDS GENERALLY LIFTING TO 15-25KFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-25KTS LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
FINALLY STABILIZING LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE
ELEVATION OF SLK... LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DROPS TO AROUND 2000 FEET. EXPECT CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO
AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING..

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW
SHOWERS LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

18Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE THURSDAY...

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 021749
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1249 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1211 PM EST MONDAY...NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WITH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON UPDATE. FOLDED IN THE CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS INTO
THE FORECAST. STILL ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA, AND A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND. ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ABOUT AT OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY, ANTICIPATE STEADLY TO SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINED OF THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION STARTS TO DEVELOP.

HERE`S THE REST OF MY RAMBLING THOUGHTS FROM EARLIER...

WITH THE INCREASING SUN, AND IT`S NOW GOT MORE HEATING POWER THAN
JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO, SURFACE HEATING WILL GENERATE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH, WILL GENERATE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (IE: SNOW
SQUALLS). GUIDANCE INDICATES WE WILL HAVE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE. BUFKIT BASED SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND AN INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE, WHICH TELLS ME THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WE DO SEE COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS. JUST ON THE DEEP MIXING (PERHAPS
UP TO 5000FT) ALONE, WE WILL BE TAPPING INTO WINDS OF 30-40KTS.
HAVE INCREASED THE OVERALL WIND GUSTS INTO THE 35-40MPH RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THE SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ASPECT, THEY WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE, AND PROBABLY CONFINED A BIT MORE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEY WON`T LAST LONG IN ANY SPOT -- PERHAPS 15 TO 30 MINUTES, BUT
COULD PUT DOWN 1/2" OF SNOW IN THAT TIME. THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED
SNOW SQUALL INDEX (AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE BY VIEWING THE 12KM
AND 4KM WRF MODEL OUTPUT VIA THE "MODEL DATA" LINK DOWN AT THE
VERY BOTTOM OF THE PAGE) HIGHLIGHT THE 18-22Z PERIOD AS THE
PRIMARY TIME FOR THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE NOTED THAT OUR
NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH HAVE ISSUED SOME SNOW SQUALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF QUEBEC, HOWEVER WE IN THE NWS HAVE NO
SUCH PRODUCT. INSTEAD MAY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
AROUND AT MSS AND WILL LIKELY STAY LOW AT SLK THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR
WITH CLOUDS GENERALLY LIFTING TO 15-25KFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-25KTS LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
FINALLY STABILIZING LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE
ELEVATION OF SLK... LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DROPS TO AROUND 2000 FEET. EXPECT CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO
AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING..

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW
SHOWERS LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

18Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE THURSDAY...

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...DEAL



000
FXUS61 KBTV 021749
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1249 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1211 PM EST MONDAY...NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WITH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON UPDATE. FOLDED IN THE CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS INTO
THE FORECAST. STILL ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA, AND A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND. ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ABOUT AT OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY, ANTICIPATE STEADLY TO SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINED OF THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION STARTS TO DEVELOP.

HERE`S THE REST OF MY RAMBLING THOUGHTS FROM EARLIER...

WITH THE INCREASING SUN, AND IT`S NOW GOT MORE HEATING POWER THAN
JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO, SURFACE HEATING WILL GENERATE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH, WILL GENERATE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (IE: SNOW
SQUALLS). GUIDANCE INDICATES WE WILL HAVE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE. BUFKIT BASED SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND AN INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE, WHICH TELLS ME THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WE DO SEE COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS. JUST ON THE DEEP MIXING (PERHAPS
UP TO 5000FT) ALONE, WE WILL BE TAPPING INTO WINDS OF 30-40KTS.
HAVE INCREASED THE OVERALL WIND GUSTS INTO THE 35-40MPH RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THE SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ASPECT, THEY WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE, AND PROBABLY CONFINED A BIT MORE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEY WON`T LAST LONG IN ANY SPOT -- PERHAPS 15 TO 30 MINUTES, BUT
COULD PUT DOWN 1/2" OF SNOW IN THAT TIME. THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED
SNOW SQUALL INDEX (AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE BY VIEWING THE 12KM
AND 4KM WRF MODEL OUTPUT VIA THE "MODEL DATA" LINK DOWN AT THE
VERY BOTTOM OF THE PAGE) HIGHLIGHT THE 18-22Z PERIOD AS THE
PRIMARY TIME FOR THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE NOTED THAT OUR
NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH HAVE ISSUED SOME SNOW SQUALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF QUEBEC, HOWEVER WE IN THE NWS HAVE NO
SUCH PRODUCT. INSTEAD MAY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
AROUND AT MSS AND WILL LIKELY STAY LOW AT SLK THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR
WITH CLOUDS GENERALLY LIFTING TO 15-25KFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-25KTS LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
FINALLY STABILIZING LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE
ELEVATION OF SLK... LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DROPS TO AROUND 2000 FEET. EXPECT CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO
AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING..

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW
SHOWERS LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

18Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE THURSDAY...

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 021749
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1249 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1211 PM EST MONDAY...NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WITH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON UPDATE. FOLDED IN THE CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS INTO
THE FORECAST. STILL ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA, AND A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND. ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ABOUT AT OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY, ANTICIPATE STEADLY TO SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINED OF THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION STARTS TO DEVELOP.

HERE`S THE REST OF MY RAMBLING THOUGHTS FROM EARLIER...

WITH THE INCREASING SUN, AND IT`S NOW GOT MORE HEATING POWER THAN
JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO, SURFACE HEATING WILL GENERATE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH, WILL GENERATE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (IE: SNOW
SQUALLS). GUIDANCE INDICATES WE WILL HAVE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE. BUFKIT BASED SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND AN INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE, WHICH TELLS ME THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WE DO SEE COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS. JUST ON THE DEEP MIXING (PERHAPS
UP TO 5000FT) ALONE, WE WILL BE TAPPING INTO WINDS OF 30-40KTS.
HAVE INCREASED THE OVERALL WIND GUSTS INTO THE 35-40MPH RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THE SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ASPECT, THEY WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE, AND PROBABLY CONFINED A BIT MORE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEY WON`T LAST LONG IN ANY SPOT -- PERHAPS 15 TO 30 MINUTES, BUT
COULD PUT DOWN 1/2" OF SNOW IN THAT TIME. THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED
SNOW SQUALL INDEX (AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE BY VIEWING THE 12KM
AND 4KM WRF MODEL OUTPUT VIA THE "MODEL DATA" LINK DOWN AT THE
VERY BOTTOM OF THE PAGE) HIGHLIGHT THE 18-22Z PERIOD AS THE
PRIMARY TIME FOR THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE NOTED THAT OUR
NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH HAVE ISSUED SOME SNOW SQUALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF QUEBEC, HOWEVER WE IN THE NWS HAVE NO
SUCH PRODUCT. INSTEAD MAY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
AROUND AT MSS AND WILL LIKELY STAY LOW AT SLK THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR
WITH CLOUDS GENERALLY LIFTING TO 15-25KFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-25KTS LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
FINALLY STABILIZING LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE
ELEVATION OF SLK... LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DROPS TO AROUND 2000 FEET. EXPECT CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO
AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING..

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW
SHOWERS LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

18Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE THURSDAY...

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...DEAL



000
FXUS61 KBTV 021749
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1249 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1211 PM EST MONDAY...NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WITH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON UPDATE. FOLDED IN THE CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS INTO
THE FORECAST. STILL ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA, AND A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND. ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ABOUT AT OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY, ANTICIPATE STEADLY TO SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINED OF THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION STARTS TO DEVELOP.

HERE`S THE REST OF MY RAMBLING THOUGHTS FROM EARLIER...

WITH THE INCREASING SUN, AND IT`S NOW GOT MORE HEATING POWER THAN
JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO, SURFACE HEATING WILL GENERATE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH, WILL GENERATE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (IE: SNOW
SQUALLS). GUIDANCE INDICATES WE WILL HAVE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE. BUFKIT BASED SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND AN INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE, WHICH TELLS ME THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WE DO SEE COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS. JUST ON THE DEEP MIXING (PERHAPS
UP TO 5000FT) ALONE, WE WILL BE TAPPING INTO WINDS OF 30-40KTS.
HAVE INCREASED THE OVERALL WIND GUSTS INTO THE 35-40MPH RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THE SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ASPECT, THEY WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE, AND PROBABLY CONFINED A BIT MORE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEY WON`T LAST LONG IN ANY SPOT -- PERHAPS 15 TO 30 MINUTES, BUT
COULD PUT DOWN 1/2" OF SNOW IN THAT TIME. THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED
SNOW SQUALL INDEX (AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE BY VIEWING THE 12KM
AND 4KM WRF MODEL OUTPUT VIA THE "MODEL DATA" LINK DOWN AT THE
VERY BOTTOM OF THE PAGE) HIGHLIGHT THE 18-22Z PERIOD AS THE
PRIMARY TIME FOR THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE NOTED THAT OUR
NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH HAVE ISSUED SOME SNOW SQUALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF QUEBEC, HOWEVER WE IN THE NWS HAVE NO
SUCH PRODUCT. INSTEAD MAY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. IFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
AROUND AT MSS AND WILL LIKELY STAY LOW AT SLK THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARDS VFR
WITH CLOUDS GENERALLY LIFTING TO 15-25KFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-25KTS LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
FINALLY STABILIZING LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE
ELEVATION OF SLK... LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DROPS TO AROUND 2000 FEET. EXPECT CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO
AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING..

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW
SHOWERS LIFTING TO VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

18Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE THURSDAY...

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KALY 021734
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1234 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST...THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS TAKING
SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO TO CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS. THESE ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
HIGH TERRAIN AS WELL. AS A RESULT...A FEW ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FRESH COATING OF SNOW
POSSIBLE IN HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. MOST VALLEY AREAS WILL BE DRY WITH
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND A PASSING FLURRY IN SPOTS.

MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DONE BY THE AFTN...ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE AN INSTABILITY-FORCED SNOW SHOWER THIS AFTN IN
SPOTS THANKS TO STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.

WITH THIS STRONG CAA ONGOING...WINDS BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY FROM
THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE THROUGH THE DAY BUT
THE WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING...AND HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE 30S IN MANY AREAS...WITH 20S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS
COULD GUSTS OVER 30 MPH...ESP FOR THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES...AND
OTHER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
TREND TO CALM BY DAYBREAK. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST
AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL AS RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY SHOULD SUPPORT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS BUT BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN AREAS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 1-4
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO SOUTHERN
VERMONT. PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE AND NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR 4 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY FREEZING RAIN CAN GET. SO...
NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES YET...BUT MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME
CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SOME HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AS
THIS EVENT DRAWS NEARER. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RISE A FEW DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. KEEPING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE LOW
LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS
AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID 40S
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...DEPENDING ON WHETHER VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND
LIMITS SURFACE WARMING.

A TRAILING PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCING
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT. THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD EXTEND
THROUGH THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. LOTS
OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR THIS POTENTIAL TRAILING SYSTEM. SO
PUTTING HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND GENERAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AS THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GIVE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT MORE NORTH...BUT AGAIN...
THERE IS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AND DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
GET CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIODS STARTS OUT THURSDAY MORNING WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY SPREAD SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD WITH QPF SO WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. ALSO PLUME
DIAGRAM FOR ALB FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW SEVERAL MEMBERS WITH
AROUND 0.25 INCH QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY.
DETERMINISTIC QPF LOOKS RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT HEAVIER
PRECIP IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IF THE UPSTREAM
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES DEEPER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THE FRONT/WAVE COULD SPREAD FARTHER NORTH INTO OUR AREA.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

BY LATE THURSDAY THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO QUICKLY BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND AS A W-SW FLOW REGIME SETS UP. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. AFTER A COLD
DAY FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
REGION...THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AROUND.
MOST OF THESE WILL BE LOCATED OVER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...SO EXPECT
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT FOR VSBYS/CIGS AT THE VALLEY TERMINALS...WITH
PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KPSF OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...BKN-OVC CIGS OF 3500-5000 FT WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS. NW WINDS OF 10-20
KTS WILL GUSTS 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL
START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH AND BECOME NEARLY CALM TOWARDS MIDNIGHT -
2AM. ALSO...SKIES WILL BECOME NEARLY CLEAR AS WELL FOR ALL SITES.

SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY MORNING...AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHES THE AREA. SKIES WILL
BECOME BKN-OVC BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP ARRIVING
LATER IN THE DAY IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

OUTLOOK...

TUE PM: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/PL/FZRA.
WED NT- THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHRA.
FRI-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY TODAY...
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...
AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 021734
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1234 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST...THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS TAKING
SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO TO CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS. THESE ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
HIGH TERRAIN AS WELL. AS A RESULT...A FEW ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FRESH COATING OF SNOW
POSSIBLE IN HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. MOST VALLEY AREAS WILL BE DRY WITH
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND A PASSING FLURRY IN SPOTS.

MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DONE BY THE AFTN...ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE AN INSTABILITY-FORCED SNOW SHOWER THIS AFTN IN
SPOTS THANKS TO STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.

WITH THIS STRONG CAA ONGOING...WINDS BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY FROM
THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE THROUGH THE DAY BUT
THE WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING...AND HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE 30S IN MANY AREAS...WITH 20S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS
COULD GUSTS OVER 30 MPH...ESP FOR THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES...AND
OTHER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
TREND TO CALM BY DAYBREAK. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST
AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL AS RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY SHOULD SUPPORT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS BUT BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN AREAS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 1-4
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO SOUTHERN
VERMONT. PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE AND NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR 4 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY FREEZING RAIN CAN GET. SO...
NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES YET...BUT MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME
CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SOME HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AS
THIS EVENT DRAWS NEARER. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RISE A FEW DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. KEEPING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE LOW
LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS
AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID 40S
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...DEPENDING ON WHETHER VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND
LIMITS SURFACE WARMING.

A TRAILING PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCING
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT. THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD EXTEND
THROUGH THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. LOTS
OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR THIS POTENTIAL TRAILING SYSTEM. SO
PUTTING HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND GENERAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AS THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GIVE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT MORE NORTH...BUT AGAIN...
THERE IS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AND DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
GET CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIODS STARTS OUT THURSDAY MORNING WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY SPREAD SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD WITH QPF SO WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. ALSO PLUME
DIAGRAM FOR ALB FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW SEVERAL MEMBERS WITH
AROUND 0.25 INCH QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY.
DETERMINISTIC QPF LOOKS RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT HEAVIER
PRECIP IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IF THE UPSTREAM
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES DEEPER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THE FRONT/WAVE COULD SPREAD FARTHER NORTH INTO OUR AREA.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

BY LATE THURSDAY THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO QUICKLY BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND AS A W-SW FLOW REGIME SETS UP. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. AFTER A COLD
DAY FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
REGION...THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AROUND.
MOST OF THESE WILL BE LOCATED OVER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...SO EXPECT
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT FOR VSBYS/CIGS AT THE VALLEY TERMINALS...WITH
PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KPSF OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...BKN-OVC CIGS OF 3500-5000 FT WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS. NW WINDS OF 10-20
KTS WILL GUSTS 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL
START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH AND BECOME NEARLY CALM TOWARDS MIDNIGHT -
2AM. ALSO...SKIES WILL BECOME NEARLY CLEAR AS WELL FOR ALL SITES.

SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY MORNING...AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHES THE AREA. SKIES WILL
BECOME BKN-OVC BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP ARRIVING
LATER IN THE DAY IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

OUTLOOK...

TUE PM: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/PL/FZRA.
WED NT- THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHRA.
FRI-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY TODAY...
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...
AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 021734
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1234 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST...THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS TAKING
SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO TO CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS. THESE ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
HIGH TERRAIN AS WELL. AS A RESULT...A FEW ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FRESH COATING OF SNOW
POSSIBLE IN HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. MOST VALLEY AREAS WILL BE DRY WITH
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND A PASSING FLURRY IN SPOTS.

MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DONE BY THE AFTN...ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE AN INSTABILITY-FORCED SNOW SHOWER THIS AFTN IN
SPOTS THANKS TO STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.

WITH THIS STRONG CAA ONGOING...WINDS BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY FROM
THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE THROUGH THE DAY BUT
THE WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING...AND HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE 30S IN MANY AREAS...WITH 20S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS
COULD GUSTS OVER 30 MPH...ESP FOR THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES...AND
OTHER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
TREND TO CALM BY DAYBREAK. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST
AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL AS RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY SHOULD SUPPORT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS BUT BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN AREAS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 1-4
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO SOUTHERN
VERMONT. PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE AND NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR 4 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY FREEZING RAIN CAN GET. SO...
NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES YET...BUT MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME
CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SOME HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AS
THIS EVENT DRAWS NEARER. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RISE A FEW DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. KEEPING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE LOW
LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS
AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID 40S
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...DEPENDING ON WHETHER VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND
LIMITS SURFACE WARMING.

A TRAILING PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCING
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT. THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD EXTEND
THROUGH THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. LOTS
OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR THIS POTENTIAL TRAILING SYSTEM. SO
PUTTING HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND GENERAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AS THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GIVE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT MORE NORTH...BUT AGAIN...
THERE IS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AND DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
GET CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIODS STARTS OUT THURSDAY MORNING WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY SPREAD SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD WITH QPF SO WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. ALSO PLUME
DIAGRAM FOR ALB FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW SEVERAL MEMBERS WITH
AROUND 0.25 INCH QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY.
DETERMINISTIC QPF LOOKS RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT HEAVIER
PRECIP IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IF THE UPSTREAM
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES DEEPER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THE FRONT/WAVE COULD SPREAD FARTHER NORTH INTO OUR AREA.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

BY LATE THURSDAY THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO QUICKLY BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND AS A W-SW FLOW REGIME SETS UP. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. AFTER A COLD
DAY FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
REGION...THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AROUND.
MOST OF THESE WILL BE LOCATED OVER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...SO EXPECT
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT FOR VSBYS/CIGS AT THE VALLEY TERMINALS...WITH
PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KPSF OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...BKN-OVC CIGS OF 3500-5000 FT WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS. NW WINDS OF 10-20
KTS WILL GUSTS 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL
START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH AND BECOME NEARLY CALM TOWARDS MIDNIGHT -
2AM. ALSO...SKIES WILL BECOME NEARLY CLEAR AS WELL FOR ALL SITES.

SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY MORNING...AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHES THE AREA. SKIES WILL
BECOME BKN-OVC BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP ARRIVING
LATER IN THE DAY IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

OUTLOOK...

TUE PM: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/PL/FZRA.
WED NT- THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHRA.
FRI-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY TODAY...
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...
AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...NAS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 021717
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1217 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1211 PM EST MONDAY...NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WITH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON UPDATE. FOLDED IN THE CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS INTO
THE FORECAST. STILL ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA, AND A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND. ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ABOUT AT OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY, ANTICIPATE STEADLY TO SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINED OF THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION STARTS TO DEVELOP.

HERE`S THE REST OF MY RAMBLING THOUGHTS FROM EARLIER...

WITH THE INCREASING SUN, AND IT`S NOW GOT MORE HEATING POWER THAN
JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO, SURFACE HEATING WILL GENERATE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH, WILL GENERATE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (IE: SNOW
SQUALLS). GUIDANCE INDICATES WE WILL HAVE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE. BUFKIT BASED SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND AN INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE, WHICH TELLS ME THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WE DO SEE COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS. JUST ON THE DEEP MIXING (PERHAPS
UP TO 5000FT) ALONE, WE WILL BE TAPPING INTO WINDS OF 30-40KTS.
HAVE INCREASED THE OVERALL WIND GUSTS INTO THE 35-40MPH RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THE SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ASPECT, THEY WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE, AND PROBABLY CONFINED A BIT MORE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEY WON`T LAST LONG IN ANY SPOT -- PERHAPS 15 TO 30 MINUTES, BUT
COULD PUT DOWN 1/2" OF SNOW IN THAT TIME. THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED
SNOW SQUALL INDEX (AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE BY VIEWING THE 12KM
AND 4KM WRF MODEL OUTPUT VIA THE "MODEL DATA" LINK DOWN AT THE
VERY BOTTOM OF THE PAGE) HIGHLIGHT THE 18-22Z PERIOD AS THE
PRIMARY TIME FOR THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE NOTED THAT OUR
NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH HAVE ISSUED SOME SNOW SQUALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF QUEBEC, HOWEVER WE IN THE NWS HAVE NO
SUCH PRODUCT. INSTEAD MAY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE A
TRANSITION TOWARD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THIS WILL MEAN CONDITIONS OVERALL TRENDING
TOWARD VFR...BUT WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN ANY SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MAY SEE SOME CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD THRU
00Z THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL
BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE LOCALLY AT MPV THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE
GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 021717
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1217 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1211 PM EST MONDAY...NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WITH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON UPDATE. FOLDED IN THE CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS INTO
THE FORECAST. STILL ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA, AND A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND. ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ABOUT AT OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY, ANTICIPATE STEADLY TO SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINED OF THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION STARTS TO DEVELOP.

HERE`S THE REST OF MY RAMBLING THOUGHTS FROM EARLIER...

WITH THE INCREASING SUN, AND IT`S NOW GOT MORE HEATING POWER THAN
JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO, SURFACE HEATING WILL GENERATE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH, WILL GENERATE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (IE: SNOW
SQUALLS). GUIDANCE INDICATES WE WILL HAVE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE. BUFKIT BASED SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND AN INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE, WHICH TELLS ME THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WE DO SEE COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS. JUST ON THE DEEP MIXING (PERHAPS
UP TO 5000FT) ALONE, WE WILL BE TAPPING INTO WINDS OF 30-40KTS.
HAVE INCREASED THE OVERALL WIND GUSTS INTO THE 35-40MPH RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THE SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ASPECT, THEY WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE, AND PROBABLY CONFINED A BIT MORE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEY WON`T LAST LONG IN ANY SPOT -- PERHAPS 15 TO 30 MINUTES, BUT
COULD PUT DOWN 1/2" OF SNOW IN THAT TIME. THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED
SNOW SQUALL INDEX (AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE BY VIEWING THE 12KM
AND 4KM WRF MODEL OUTPUT VIA THE "MODEL DATA" LINK DOWN AT THE
VERY BOTTOM OF THE PAGE) HIGHLIGHT THE 18-22Z PERIOD AS THE
PRIMARY TIME FOR THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE NOTED THAT OUR
NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH HAVE ISSUED SOME SNOW SQUALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF QUEBEC, HOWEVER WE IN THE NWS HAVE NO
SUCH PRODUCT. INSTEAD MAY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE A
TRANSITION TOWARD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THIS WILL MEAN CONDITIONS OVERALL TRENDING
TOWARD VFR...BUT WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN ANY SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MAY SEE SOME CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD THRU
00Z THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL
BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE LOCALLY AT MPV THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE
GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 021717
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1217 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1211 PM EST MONDAY...NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WITH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON UPDATE. FOLDED IN THE CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS INTO
THE FORECAST. STILL ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA, AND A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND. ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ABOUT AT OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY, ANTICIPATE STEADLY TO SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINED OF THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION STARTS TO DEVELOP.

HERE`S THE REST OF MY RAMBLING THOUGHTS FROM EARLIER...

WITH THE INCREASING SUN, AND IT`S NOW GOT MORE HEATING POWER THAN
JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO, SURFACE HEATING WILL GENERATE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH, WILL GENERATE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (IE: SNOW
SQUALLS). GUIDANCE INDICATES WE WILL HAVE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE. BUFKIT BASED SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND AN INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE, WHICH TELLS ME THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WE DO SEE COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS. JUST ON THE DEEP MIXING (PERHAPS
UP TO 5000FT) ALONE, WE WILL BE TAPPING INTO WINDS OF 30-40KTS.
HAVE INCREASED THE OVERALL WIND GUSTS INTO THE 35-40MPH RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THE SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ASPECT, THEY WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE, AND PROBABLY CONFINED A BIT MORE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEY WON`T LAST LONG IN ANY SPOT -- PERHAPS 15 TO 30 MINUTES, BUT
COULD PUT DOWN 1/2" OF SNOW IN THAT TIME. THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED
SNOW SQUALL INDEX (AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE BY VIEWING THE 12KM
AND 4KM WRF MODEL OUTPUT VIA THE "MODEL DATA" LINK DOWN AT THE
VERY BOTTOM OF THE PAGE) HIGHLIGHT THE 18-22Z PERIOD AS THE
PRIMARY TIME FOR THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE NOTED THAT OUR
NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH HAVE ISSUED SOME SNOW SQUALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF QUEBEC, HOWEVER WE IN THE NWS HAVE NO
SUCH PRODUCT. INSTEAD MAY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE SITUATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE A
TRANSITION TOWARD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THIS WILL MEAN CONDITIONS OVERALL TRENDING
TOWARD VFR...BUT WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN ANY SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MAY SEE SOME CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD THRU
00Z THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL
BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE LOCALLY AT MPV THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE
GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS



000
FXUS61 KALY 021715
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1215 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST...THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS TAKING
SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO TO CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS. THESE ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
HIGH TERRAIN AS WELL. AS A RESULT...A FEW ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FRESH COATING OF SNOW
POSSIBLE IN HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. MOST VALLEY AREAS WILL BE DRY WITH
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND A PASSING FLURRY IN SPOTS.

MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DONE BY THE AFTN...ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE AN INSTABILITY-FORCED SNOW SHOWER THIS AFTN IN
SPOTS THANKS TO STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.

WITH THIS STRONG CAA ONGOING...WINDS BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY FROM
THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE THROUGH THE DAY BUT
THE WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING...AND HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE 30S IN MANY AREAS...WITH 20S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS
COULD GUSTS OVER 30 MPH...ESP FOR THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES...AND
OTHER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
TREND TO CALM BY DAYBREAK. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST
AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL AS RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY SHOULD SUPPORT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS BUT BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN AREAS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 1-4
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO SOUTHERN
VERMONT. PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE AND NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR 4 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY FREEZING RAIN CAN GET. SO...
NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES YET...BUT MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME
CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SOME HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AS
THIS EVENT DRAWS NEARER. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RISE A FEW DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. KEEPING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE LOW
LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS
AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID 40S
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...DEPENDING ON WHETHER VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND
LIMITS SURFACE WARMING.

A TRAILING PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCING
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT. THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD EXTEND
THROUGH THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. LOTS
OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR THIS POTENTIAL TRAILING SYSTEM. SO
PUTTING HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND GENERAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AS THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GIVE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT MORE NORTH...BUT AGAIN...
THERE IS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AND DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
GET CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIODS STARTS OUT THURSDAY MORNING WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY SPREAD SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD WITH QPF SO WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. ALSO PLUME
DIAGRAM FOR ALB FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW SEVERAL MEMBERS WITH
AROUND 0.25 INCH QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY.
DETERMINISTIC QPF LOOKS RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT HEAVIER
PRECIP IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IF THE UPSTREAM
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES DEEPER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THE FRONT/WAVE COULD SPREAD FARTHER NORTH INTO OUR AREA.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

BY LATE THURSDAY THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO QUICKLY BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND AS A W-SW FLOW REGIME SETS UP. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. AFTER A COLD
DAY FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CYCLONIC NW FLOW REGIME WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND GUSTY
WINDS TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
AT KALB/KPSF WHERE SCT -SHSN WILL OCCUR. SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 12-18 KTS
THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS COMMON BY THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KALB/KPSF. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.

OUTLOOK...

TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
WED NT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY TODAY...
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...
AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 021715
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1215 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST...THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS TAKING
SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO TO CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS. THESE ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
HIGH TERRAIN AS WELL. AS A RESULT...A FEW ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FRESH COATING OF SNOW
POSSIBLE IN HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. MOST VALLEY AREAS WILL BE DRY WITH
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND A PASSING FLURRY IN SPOTS.

MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DONE BY THE AFTN...ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE AN INSTABILITY-FORCED SNOW SHOWER THIS AFTN IN
SPOTS THANKS TO STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.

WITH THIS STRONG CAA ONGOING...WINDS BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY FROM
THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE THROUGH THE DAY BUT
THE WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING...AND HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE 30S IN MANY AREAS...WITH 20S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS
COULD GUSTS OVER 30 MPH...ESP FOR THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES...AND
OTHER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
TREND TO CALM BY DAYBREAK. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST
AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL AS RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY SHOULD SUPPORT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS BUT BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN AREAS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 1-4
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO SOUTHERN
VERMONT. PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE AND NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR 4 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY FREEZING RAIN CAN GET. SO...
NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES YET...BUT MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME
CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SOME HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AS
THIS EVENT DRAWS NEARER. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RISE A FEW DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. KEEPING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE LOW
LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS
AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID 40S
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...DEPENDING ON WHETHER VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND
LIMITS SURFACE WARMING.

A TRAILING PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCING
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT. THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD EXTEND
THROUGH THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. LOTS
OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR THIS POTENTIAL TRAILING SYSTEM. SO
PUTTING HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND GENERAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AS THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GIVE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT MORE NORTH...BUT AGAIN...
THERE IS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AND DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
GET CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIODS STARTS OUT THURSDAY MORNING WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY SPREAD SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD WITH QPF SO WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. ALSO PLUME
DIAGRAM FOR ALB FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW SEVERAL MEMBERS WITH
AROUND 0.25 INCH QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY.
DETERMINISTIC QPF LOOKS RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT HEAVIER
PRECIP IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IF THE UPSTREAM
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES DEEPER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THE FRONT/WAVE COULD SPREAD FARTHER NORTH INTO OUR AREA.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

BY LATE THURSDAY THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO QUICKLY BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND AS A W-SW FLOW REGIME SETS UP. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. AFTER A COLD
DAY FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CYCLONIC NW FLOW REGIME WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND GUSTY
WINDS TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
AT KALB/KPSF WHERE SCT -SHSN WILL OCCUR. SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 12-18 KTS
THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS COMMON BY THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KALB/KPSF. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.

OUTLOOK...

TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
WED NT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY TODAY...
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...
AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 021454
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
954 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 939 AM EST MONDAY...FORECAST GOING PRETTY MUCH ACCORDING TO
PLAN AS OF LATE THIS MORNING. THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF LIGHT
SNOW IS BREAKING UP, AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW INCREASING BREAKS
IN THE OVERCASE. STILL A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING LIGHT SNOW, BUT
NOTHING HEAVY.

WITH THE INCREASING SUN, AND IT`S NOW GOT MORE HEATING POWER THAN
JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO, SURFACE HEATING WILL GENERATE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH, WILL GENERATE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (IE: SNOW
SQUALLS). GUIDANCE INDICATES WE WILL HAVE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE. BUFKIT BASED SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND AN INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE, WHICH TELLS ME THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WE DO SEE COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS. JUST ON THE DEEP MIXING (PERHAPS
UP TO 5000FT) ALONE, WE WILL BE TAPPING INTO WINDS OF 30-40KTS.
HAVE INCREASED THE OVERALL WIND GUSTS INTO THE 35-40MPH RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THE SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ASPECT, THEY WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE, AND PROBABLY CONFINED A BIT MORE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEY WON`T LAST LONG IN ANY SPOT -- PERHAPS 15 TO 30 MINUTES, BUT
COULD PUT DOWN 1/2" OF SNOW IN THAT TIME. THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED
SNOW SQUALL INDEX (AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE BY VIEWING THE 12KM
AND 4KM WRF MODEL OUTPUT VIA THE "MODEL DATA" LINK DOWN AT THE
VERY BOTTOM OF THE PAGE) HIGHLIGHT THE 18-22Z PERIOD AS THE
PRIMARY TIME FOR THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE NOTED THAT OUR
NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH HAVE ISSUED SOME SNOW SQUALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF QUEBEC, HOWEVER WE IN THE NWS HAVE NO
SUCH PRODUCT. INSTEAD MAY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE SITUATION.


&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE A
TRANSITION TOWARD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THIS WILL MEAN CONDITIONS OVERALL TRENDING
TOWARD VFR...BUT WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN ANY SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MAY SEE SOME CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD THRU
00Z THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL
BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE LOCALLY AT MPV THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE
GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 021454
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
954 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 939 AM EST MONDAY...FORECAST GOING PRETTY MUCH ACCORDING TO
PLAN AS OF LATE THIS MORNING. THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF LIGHT
SNOW IS BREAKING UP, AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW INCREASING BREAKS
IN THE OVERCASE. STILL A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING LIGHT SNOW, BUT
NOTHING HEAVY.

WITH THE INCREASING SUN, AND IT`S NOW GOT MORE HEATING POWER THAN
JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO, SURFACE HEATING WILL GENERATE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH, WILL GENERATE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (IE: SNOW
SQUALLS). GUIDANCE INDICATES WE WILL HAVE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE. BUFKIT BASED SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND AN INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE, WHICH TELLS ME THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WE DO SEE COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS. JUST ON THE DEEP MIXING (PERHAPS
UP TO 5000FT) ALONE, WE WILL BE TAPPING INTO WINDS OF 30-40KTS.
HAVE INCREASED THE OVERALL WIND GUSTS INTO THE 35-40MPH RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THE SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ASPECT, THEY WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE, AND PROBABLY CONFINED A BIT MORE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEY WON`T LAST LONG IN ANY SPOT -- PERHAPS 15 TO 30 MINUTES, BUT
COULD PUT DOWN 1/2" OF SNOW IN THAT TIME. THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED
SNOW SQUALL INDEX (AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE BY VIEWING THE 12KM
AND 4KM WRF MODEL OUTPUT VIA THE "MODEL DATA" LINK DOWN AT THE
VERY BOTTOM OF THE PAGE) HIGHLIGHT THE 18-22Z PERIOD AS THE
PRIMARY TIME FOR THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE NOTED THAT OUR
NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH HAVE ISSUED SOME SNOW SQUALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF QUEBEC, HOWEVER WE IN THE NWS HAVE NO
SUCH PRODUCT. INSTEAD MAY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE SITUATION.


&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE A
TRANSITION TOWARD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THIS WILL MEAN CONDITIONS OVERALL TRENDING
TOWARD VFR...BUT WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN ANY SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MAY SEE SOME CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD THRU
00Z THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL
BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE LOCALLY AT MPV THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE
GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 021454
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
954 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 939 AM EST MONDAY...FORECAST GOING PRETTY MUCH ACCORDING TO
PLAN AS OF LATE THIS MORNING. THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF LIGHT
SNOW IS BREAKING UP, AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW INCREASING BREAKS
IN THE OVERCASE. STILL A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING LIGHT SNOW, BUT
NOTHING HEAVY.

WITH THE INCREASING SUN, AND IT`S NOW GOT MORE HEATING POWER THAN
JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO, SURFACE HEATING WILL GENERATE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH, WILL GENERATE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (IE: SNOW
SQUALLS). GUIDANCE INDICATES WE WILL HAVE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE. BUFKIT BASED SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND AN INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE, WHICH TELLS ME THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WE DO SEE COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS. JUST ON THE DEEP MIXING (PERHAPS
UP TO 5000FT) ALONE, WE WILL BE TAPPING INTO WINDS OF 30-40KTS.
HAVE INCREASED THE OVERALL WIND GUSTS INTO THE 35-40MPH RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THE SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ASPECT, THEY WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE, AND PROBABLY CONFINED A BIT MORE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEY WON`T LAST LONG IN ANY SPOT -- PERHAPS 15 TO 30 MINUTES, BUT
COULD PUT DOWN 1/2" OF SNOW IN THAT TIME. THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED
SNOW SQUALL INDEX (AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE BY VIEWING THE 12KM
AND 4KM WRF MODEL OUTPUT VIA THE "MODEL DATA" LINK DOWN AT THE
VERY BOTTOM OF THE PAGE) HIGHLIGHT THE 18-22Z PERIOD AS THE
PRIMARY TIME FOR THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE NOTED THAT OUR
NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH HAVE ISSUED SOME SNOW SQUALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF QUEBEC, HOWEVER WE IN THE NWS HAVE NO
SUCH PRODUCT. INSTEAD MAY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE SITUATION.


&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE A
TRANSITION TOWARD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THIS WILL MEAN CONDITIONS OVERALL TRENDING
TOWARD VFR...BUT WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN ANY SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MAY SEE SOME CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD THRU
00Z THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL
BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE LOCALLY AT MPV THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE
GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 021454
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
954 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 939 AM EST MONDAY...FORECAST GOING PRETTY MUCH ACCORDING TO
PLAN AS OF LATE THIS MORNING. THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF LIGHT
SNOW IS BREAKING UP, AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW INCREASING BREAKS
IN THE OVERCASE. STILL A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING LIGHT SNOW, BUT
NOTHING HEAVY.

WITH THE INCREASING SUN, AND IT`S NOW GOT MORE HEATING POWER THAN
JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO, SURFACE HEATING WILL GENERATE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH, WILL GENERATE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS (IE: SNOW
SQUALLS). GUIDANCE INDICATES WE WILL HAVE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
CAPE. BUFKIT BASED SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AND AN INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE, WHICH TELLS ME THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WE DO SEE COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS. JUST ON THE DEEP MIXING (PERHAPS
UP TO 5000FT) ALONE, WE WILL BE TAPPING INTO WINDS OF 30-40KTS.
HAVE INCREASED THE OVERALL WIND GUSTS INTO THE 35-40MPH RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THE SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL ASPECT, THEY WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE, AND PROBABLY CONFINED A BIT MORE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEY WON`T LAST LONG IN ANY SPOT -- PERHAPS 15 TO 30 MINUTES, BUT
COULD PUT DOWN 1/2" OF SNOW IN THAT TIME. THE LOCALLY DEVELOPED
SNOW SQUALL INDEX (AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE BY VIEWING THE 12KM
AND 4KM WRF MODEL OUTPUT VIA THE "MODEL DATA" LINK DOWN AT THE
VERY BOTTOM OF THE PAGE) HIGHLIGHT THE 18-22Z PERIOD AS THE
PRIMARY TIME FOR THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE NOTED THAT OUR
NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH HAVE ISSUED SOME SNOW SQUALL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF QUEBEC, HOWEVER WE IN THE NWS HAVE NO
SUCH PRODUCT. INSTEAD MAY ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE SITUATION.


&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE A
TRANSITION TOWARD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THIS WILL MEAN CONDITIONS OVERALL TRENDING
TOWARD VFR...BUT WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN ANY SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MAY SEE SOME CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD THRU
00Z THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL
BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE LOCALLY AT MPV THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE
GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KALY 021424
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
924 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 924 AM EST...THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS TAKING
SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO TO CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS. THESE ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
HIGH TERRAIN AS WELL. AS A RESULT...A FEW ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH A FRESH COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE
IN HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. MOST VALLEY AREAS WILL BE DRY WITH A MIX OF
SUN AND CLOUDS AND A PASSING FLURRY IN SPOTS.

MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DONE BY THE AFTN...ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE AN INSTABILITY-FORCED SNOW SHOWER THIS AFTN IN
SPOTS THANKS TO STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.

WITH THIS STRONG CAA ONGOING...WINDS BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY FROM
THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE THROUGH THE DAY BUT
THE WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING...AND HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE 30S IN MANY AREAS...WITH 20S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS
COULD GUSTS OVER 30 MPH...ESP FOR THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES...AND
OTHER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
TREND TO CALM BY DAYBREAK. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST
AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL AS RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY SHOULD SUPPORT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS BUT BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN AREAS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 1-4
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO SOUTHERN
VERMONT. PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE AND NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR 4 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY FREEZING RAIN CAN GET. SO...
NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES YET...BUT MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME
CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SOME HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AS
THIS EVENT DRAWS NEARER. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RISE A FEW DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. KEEPING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE LOW
LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS
AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID 40S
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...DEPENDING ON WHETHER VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND
LIMITS SURFACE WARMING.

A TRAILING PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCING
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT. THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD EXTEND
THROUGH THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. LOTS
OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR THIS POTENTIAL TRAILING SYSTEM. SO
PUTTING HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND GENERAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AS THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GIVE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT MORE NORTH...BUT AGAIN...
THERE IS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AND DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
GET CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIODS STARTS OUT THURSDAY MORNING WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY SPREAD SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD WITH QPF SO WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. ALSO PLUME
DIAGRAM FOR ALB FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW SEVERAL MEMBERS WITH
AROUND 0.25 INCH QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY.
DETERMINISTIC QPF LOOKS RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT HEAVIER
PRECIP IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IF THE UPSTREAM
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES DEEPER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THE FRONT/WAVE COULD SPREAD FARTHER NORTH INTO OUR AREA.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

BY LATE THURSDAY THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO QUICKLY BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND AS A W-SW FLOW REGIME SETS UP. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. AFTER A COLD
DAY FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CYCLONIC NW FLOW REGIME WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND GUSTY
WINDS TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
AT KALB/KPSF WHERE SCT -SHSN WILL OCCUR. SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 12-18 KTS
THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS COMMON BY THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KALB/KPSF. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.

OUTLOOK...

TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
WED NT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY TODAY...
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...
AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 021424
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
924 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 924 AM EST...THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS TAKING
SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO TO CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS. THESE ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
HIGH TERRAIN AS WELL. AS A RESULT...A FEW ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH A FRESH COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE
IN HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. MOST VALLEY AREAS WILL BE DRY WITH A MIX OF
SUN AND CLOUDS AND A PASSING FLURRY IN SPOTS.

MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DONE BY THE AFTN...ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE AN INSTABILITY-FORCED SNOW SHOWER THIS AFTN IN
SPOTS THANKS TO STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.

WITH THIS STRONG CAA ONGOING...WINDS BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY FROM
THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE THROUGH THE DAY BUT
THE WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING...AND HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE 30S IN MANY AREAS...WITH 20S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS
COULD GUSTS OVER 30 MPH...ESP FOR THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES...AND
OTHER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
TREND TO CALM BY DAYBREAK. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST
AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL AS RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY SHOULD SUPPORT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS BUT BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN AREAS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 1-4
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO SOUTHERN
VERMONT. PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE AND NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR 4 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY FREEZING RAIN CAN GET. SO...
NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES YET...BUT MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME
CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SOME HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AS
THIS EVENT DRAWS NEARER. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RISE A FEW DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. KEEPING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE LOW
LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS
AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID 40S
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...DEPENDING ON WHETHER VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND
LIMITS SURFACE WARMING.

A TRAILING PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCING
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT. THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD EXTEND
THROUGH THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. LOTS
OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR THIS POTENTIAL TRAILING SYSTEM. SO
PUTTING HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND GENERAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AS THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GIVE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT MORE NORTH...BUT AGAIN...
THERE IS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AND DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
GET CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIODS STARTS OUT THURSDAY MORNING WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY SPREAD SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD WITH QPF SO WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. ALSO PLUME
DIAGRAM FOR ALB FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW SEVERAL MEMBERS WITH
AROUND 0.25 INCH QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY.
DETERMINISTIC QPF LOOKS RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT HEAVIER
PRECIP IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IF THE UPSTREAM
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES DEEPER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THE FRONT/WAVE COULD SPREAD FARTHER NORTH INTO OUR AREA.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

BY LATE THURSDAY THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO QUICKLY BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND AS A W-SW FLOW REGIME SETS UP. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. AFTER A COLD
DAY FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CYCLONIC NW FLOW REGIME WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND GUSTY
WINDS TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
AT KALB/KPSF WHERE SCT -SHSN WILL OCCUR. SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 12-18 KTS
THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS COMMON BY THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KALB/KPSF. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.

OUTLOOK...

TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
WED NT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY TODAY...
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...
AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 021218
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EST MONDAY...SNOW HAS TRANSITIONED TO OROGRAPHICALLY
DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND
MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE EVEN. SNOWFALL
WILL BE LIGHT WITH TWO INCHES OR LESS OF ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL ENHANCE
SNOWFALL A BIT...THEN SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL END. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TODAY DESPITE AMPLE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE A
TRANSITION TOWARD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THIS WILL MEAN CONDITIONS OVERALL TRENDING
TOWARD VFR...BUT WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN ANY SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MAY SEE SOME CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD THRU
00Z THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL
BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE LOCALLY AT MPV THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE
GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 021218
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EST MONDAY...SNOW HAS TRANSITIONED TO OROGRAPHICALLY
DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND
MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE EVEN. SNOWFALL
WILL BE LIGHT WITH TWO INCHES OR LESS OF ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL ENHANCE
SNOWFALL A BIT...THEN SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL END. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TODAY DESPITE AMPLE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE A
TRANSITION TOWARD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THIS WILL MEAN CONDITIONS OVERALL TRENDING
TOWARD VFR...BUT WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN ANY SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MAY SEE SOME CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD THRU
00Z THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL
BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE LOCALLY AT MPV THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE
GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 021218
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EST MONDAY...SNOW HAS TRANSITIONED TO OROGRAPHICALLY
DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND
MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE EVEN. SNOWFALL
WILL BE LIGHT WITH TWO INCHES OR LESS OF ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL ENHANCE
SNOWFALL A BIT...THEN SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL END. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TODAY DESPITE AMPLE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE A
TRANSITION TOWARD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THIS WILL MEAN CONDITIONS OVERALL TRENDING
TOWARD VFR...BUT WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN ANY SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MAY SEE SOME CONTINUED MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS DUE TO THE LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD THRU
00Z THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL
BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE LOCALLY AT MPV THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE
GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 021137
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
637 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EST MONDAY...SNOW HAS TRANSITIONED TO OROGRAPHICALLY
DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND
MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE EVEN. SNOWFALL
WILL BE LIGHT WITH TWO INCHES OR LESS OF ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL ENHANCE
SNOWFALL A BIT...THEN SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL END. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TODAY DESPITE AMPLE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND
AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD. SURFACE
WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE
MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT
TIMES. DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE GRADUAL
CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 021137
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
637 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EST MONDAY...SNOW HAS TRANSITIONED TO OROGRAPHICALLY
DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND
MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE EVEN. SNOWFALL
WILL BE LIGHT WITH TWO INCHES OR LESS OF ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL ENHANCE
SNOWFALL A BIT...THEN SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL END. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TODAY DESPITE AMPLE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND
AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD. SURFACE
WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE
MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT
TIMES. DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE GRADUAL
CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 021137
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
637 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EST MONDAY...SNOW HAS TRANSITIONED TO OROGRAPHICALLY
DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND
MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE EVEN. SNOWFALL
WILL BE LIGHT WITH TWO INCHES OR LESS OF ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL ENHANCE
SNOWFALL A BIT...THEN SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL END. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TODAY DESPITE AMPLE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND
AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD. SURFACE
WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE
MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT
TIMES. DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE GRADUAL
CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 021137
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
637 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EST MONDAY...SNOW HAS TRANSITIONED TO OROGRAPHICALLY
DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND
MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE EVEN. SNOWFALL
WILL BE LIGHT WITH TWO INCHES OR LESS OF ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL ENHANCE
SNOWFALL A BIT...THEN SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL END. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TODAY DESPITE AMPLE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND
AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD. SURFACE
WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE
MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT
TIMES. DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE GRADUAL
CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 021137
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
637 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EST MONDAY...SNOW HAS TRANSITIONED TO OROGRAPHICALLY
DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND
MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE EVEN. SNOWFALL
WILL BE LIGHT WITH TWO INCHES OR LESS OF ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL ENHANCE
SNOWFALL A BIT...THEN SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL END. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TODAY DESPITE AMPLE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND
AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD. SURFACE
WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE
MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT
TIMES. DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE GRADUAL
CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 021137
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
637 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EST MONDAY...SNOW HAS TRANSITIONED TO OROGRAPHICALLY
DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND
MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE EVEN. SNOWFALL
WILL BE LIGHT WITH TWO INCHES OR LESS OF ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL ENHANCE
SNOWFALL A BIT...THEN SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL END. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TODAY DESPITE AMPLE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND
AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD. SURFACE
WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE
MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT
TIMES. DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE GRADUAL
CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS



000
FXUS61 KALY 021129
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
629 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME WEAK FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT IS
SUPPORTING SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES BUT COVERAGE IS
DECREASING AND WILL TREND TO JUST SNOW SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
ONCE COLD ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS BECOME
STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE
THROUGH THE DAY BUT THE WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING...AND HIGHS TODAY
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 30S IN MANY AREAS...WITH 20S IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
TREND TO CALM BY DAYBREAK. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST
AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL AS RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY SHOULD SUPPORT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS BUT BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN AREAS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 1-4
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO SOUTHERN
VERMONT. PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE AND NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR 4 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY FREEZING RAIN CAN GET. SO...
NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES YET...BUT MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME
CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SOME HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AS
THIS EVENT DRAWS NEARER. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RISE A FEW DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. KEEPING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE LOW
LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS
AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID 40S
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...DEPENDING ON WHETHER VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND
LIMITS SURFACE WARMING.

A TRAILING PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCING
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT. THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD EXTEND
THROUGH THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. LOTS
OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR THIS POTENTIAL TRAILING SYSTEM. SO
PUTTING HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND GENERAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AS THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GIVE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT MORE NORTH...BUT AGAIN...
THERE IS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AND DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
GET CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIODS STARTS OUT THURSDAY MORNING WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY SPREAD SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD WITH QPF SO WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. ALSO PLUME
DIAGRAM FOR ALB FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW SEVERAL MEMBERS WITH
AROUND 0.25 INCH QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY.
DETERMINISTIC QPF LOOKS RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT HEAVIER
PRECIP IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IF THE UPSTREAM
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES DEEPER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THE FRONT/WAVE COULD SPREAD FARTHER NORTH INTO OUR AREA.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

BY LATE THURSDAY THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO QUICKLY BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND AS A W-SW FLOW REGIME SETS UP. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. AFTER A COLD
DAY FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CYCLONIC NW FLOW REGIME WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND GUSTY
WINDS TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
AT KALB/KPSF WHERE SCT -SHSN WILL OCCUR. SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 12-18 KTS
THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS COMMON BY THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KALB/KPSF. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.

OUTLOOK...

TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
WED NT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY TODAY...
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...
AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 021129
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
629 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME WEAK FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT IS
SUPPORTING SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES BUT COVERAGE IS
DECREASING AND WILL TREND TO JUST SNOW SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
ONCE COLD ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS BECOME
STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE
THROUGH THE DAY BUT THE WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING...AND HIGHS TODAY
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 30S IN MANY AREAS...WITH 20S IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
TREND TO CALM BY DAYBREAK. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST
AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL AS RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY SHOULD SUPPORT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS BUT BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN AREAS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 1-4
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO SOUTHERN
VERMONT. PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE AND NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR 4 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY FREEZING RAIN CAN GET. SO...
NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES YET...BUT MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME
CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SOME HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AS
THIS EVENT DRAWS NEARER. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RISE A FEW DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. KEEPING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE LOW
LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS
AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID 40S
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...DEPENDING ON WHETHER VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND
LIMITS SURFACE WARMING.

A TRAILING PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCING
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT. THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD EXTEND
THROUGH THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. LOTS
OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR THIS POTENTIAL TRAILING SYSTEM. SO
PUTTING HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND GENERAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AS THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GIVE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT MORE NORTH...BUT AGAIN...
THERE IS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AND DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
GET CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIODS STARTS OUT THURSDAY MORNING WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY SPREAD SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD WITH QPF SO WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. ALSO PLUME
DIAGRAM FOR ALB FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW SEVERAL MEMBERS WITH
AROUND 0.25 INCH QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY.
DETERMINISTIC QPF LOOKS RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT HEAVIER
PRECIP IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IF THE UPSTREAM
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES DEEPER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THE FRONT/WAVE COULD SPREAD FARTHER NORTH INTO OUR AREA.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

BY LATE THURSDAY THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO QUICKLY BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND AS A W-SW FLOW REGIME SETS UP. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. AFTER A COLD
DAY FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CYCLONIC NW FLOW REGIME WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND GUSTY
WINDS TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
AT KALB/KPSF WHERE SCT -SHSN WILL OCCUR. SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 12-18 KTS
THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS COMMON BY THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KALB/KPSF. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.

OUTLOOK...

TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
WED NT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY TODAY...
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...
AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 021129
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
629 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME WEAK FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT IS
SUPPORTING SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES BUT COVERAGE IS
DECREASING AND WILL TREND TO JUST SNOW SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
ONCE COLD ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS BECOME
STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE
THROUGH THE DAY BUT THE WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING...AND HIGHS TODAY
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 30S IN MANY AREAS...WITH 20S IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
TREND TO CALM BY DAYBREAK. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST
AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL AS RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY SHOULD SUPPORT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS BUT BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN AREAS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 1-4
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO SOUTHERN
VERMONT. PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE AND NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR 4 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY FREEZING RAIN CAN GET. SO...
NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES YET...BUT MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME
CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SOME HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AS
THIS EVENT DRAWS NEARER. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RISE A FEW DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. KEEPING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE LOW
LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS
AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID 40S
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...DEPENDING ON WHETHER VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND
LIMITS SURFACE WARMING.

A TRAILING PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCING
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT. THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD EXTEND
THROUGH THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. LOTS
OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR THIS POTENTIAL TRAILING SYSTEM. SO
PUTTING HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND GENERAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AS THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GIVE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT MORE NORTH...BUT AGAIN...
THERE IS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AND DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
GET CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIODS STARTS OUT THURSDAY MORNING WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY SPREAD SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD WITH QPF SO WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. ALSO PLUME
DIAGRAM FOR ALB FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW SEVERAL MEMBERS WITH
AROUND 0.25 INCH QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY.
DETERMINISTIC QPF LOOKS RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT HEAVIER
PRECIP IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IF THE UPSTREAM
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES DEEPER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THE FRONT/WAVE COULD SPREAD FARTHER NORTH INTO OUR AREA.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

BY LATE THURSDAY THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO QUICKLY BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND AS A W-SW FLOW REGIME SETS UP. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. AFTER A COLD
DAY FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CYCLONIC NW FLOW REGIME WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND GUSTY
WINDS TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
AT KALB/KPSF WHERE SCT -SHSN WILL OCCUR. SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 12-18 KTS
THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS COMMON BY THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KALB/KPSF. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.

OUTLOOK...

TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
WED NT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY TODAY...
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...
AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 021129
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
629 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME WEAK FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT IS
SUPPORTING SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES BUT COVERAGE IS
DECREASING AND WILL TREND TO JUST SNOW SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
ONCE COLD ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS BECOME
STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE
THROUGH THE DAY BUT THE WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING...AND HIGHS TODAY
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 30S IN MANY AREAS...WITH 20S IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
TREND TO CALM BY DAYBREAK. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST
AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL AS RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY SHOULD SUPPORT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS BUT BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN AREAS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 1-4
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO SOUTHERN
VERMONT. PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE AND NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR 4 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY FREEZING RAIN CAN GET. SO...
NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES YET...BUT MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME
CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SOME HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AS
THIS EVENT DRAWS NEARER. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RISE A FEW DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. KEEPING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE LOW
LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS
AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID 40S
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...DEPENDING ON WHETHER VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND
LIMITS SURFACE WARMING.

A TRAILING PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCING
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT. THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD EXTEND
THROUGH THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. LOTS
OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR THIS POTENTIAL TRAILING SYSTEM. SO
PUTTING HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND GENERAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AS THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GIVE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT MORE NORTH...BUT AGAIN...
THERE IS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AND DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
GET CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIODS STARTS OUT THURSDAY MORNING WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY SPREAD SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD WITH QPF SO WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. ALSO PLUME
DIAGRAM FOR ALB FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW SEVERAL MEMBERS WITH
AROUND 0.25 INCH QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY.
DETERMINISTIC QPF LOOKS RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT HEAVIER
PRECIP IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IF THE UPSTREAM
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES DEEPER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THE FRONT/WAVE COULD SPREAD FARTHER NORTH INTO OUR AREA.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

BY LATE THURSDAY THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO QUICKLY BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND AS A W-SW FLOW REGIME SETS UP. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. AFTER A COLD
DAY FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CYCLONIC NW FLOW REGIME WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND GUSTY
WINDS TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD
OF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
AT KALB/KPSF WHERE SCT -SHSN WILL OCCUR. SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 12-18 KTS
THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS COMMON BY THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KALB/KPSF. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.

OUTLOOK...

TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
WED NT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY TODAY...
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...
AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 021116
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME WEAK FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT IS
SUPPORTING SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES BUT COVERAGE IS
DECREASING AND WILL TREND TO JUST SNOW SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
ONCE COLD ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS BECOME
STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE
THROUGH THE DAY BUT THE WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING...AND HIGHS TODAY
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 30S IN MANY AREAS...WITH 20S IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
TREND TO CALM BY DAYBREAK. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST
AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL AS RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY SHOULD SUPPORT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS BUT BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN AREAS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 1-4
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO SOUTHERN
VERMONT. PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE AND NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR 4 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY FREEZING RAIN CAN GET. SO...
NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES YET...BUT MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME
CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SOME HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AS
THIS EVENT DRAWS NEARER. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RISE A FEW DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. KEEPING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE LOW
LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS
AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID 40S
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...DEPENDING ON WHETHER VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND
LIMITS SURFACE WARMING.

A TRAILING PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCING
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT. THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD EXTEND
THROUGH THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. LOTS
OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR THIS POTENTIAL TRAILING SYSTEM. SO
PUTTING HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND GENERAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AS THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GIVE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT MORE NORTH...BUT AGAIN...
THERE IS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AND DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
GET CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIODS STARTS OUT THURSDAY MORNING WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY SPREAD SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD WITH QPF SO WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. ALSO PLUME
DIAGRAM FOR ALB FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW SEVERAL MEMBERS WITH
AROUND 0.25 INCH QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY.
DETERMINISTIC QPF LOOKS RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT HEAVIER
PRECIP IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IF THE UPSTREAM
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES DEEPER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THE FRONT/WAVE COULD SPREAD FARTHER NORTH INTO OUR AREA.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

BY LATE THURSDAY THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO QUICKLY BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND AS A W-SW FLOW REGIME SETS UP. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. AFTER A COLD
DAY FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END BY AROUND 08Z...TAPERING TO SCT
-SHSN UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 08Z...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR/VFR BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED
BY 12Z-15Z AS CIG HEIGHTS RISE AND -SHSN END. CLEARING SKIES WILL
OCCUR THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE S-SW AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN WILL SHIFT
TO THE W-NW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 12-19 KTS THIS
MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS COMMON BY THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KALB/KPSF. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
WED NT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY TODAY...
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...
AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 021116
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME WEAK FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT IS
SUPPORTING SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES BUT COVERAGE IS
DECREASING AND WILL TREND TO JUST SNOW SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
ONCE COLD ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS BECOME
STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE
THROUGH THE DAY BUT THE WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING...AND HIGHS TODAY
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 30S IN MANY AREAS...WITH 20S IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
TREND TO CALM BY DAYBREAK. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST
AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL AS RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY SHOULD SUPPORT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS BUT BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN AREAS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 1-4
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO SOUTHERN
VERMONT. PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE AND NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR 4 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY FREEZING RAIN CAN GET. SO...
NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES YET...BUT MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME
CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SOME HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AS
THIS EVENT DRAWS NEARER. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RISE A FEW DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. KEEPING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE LOW
LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS
AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID 40S
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...DEPENDING ON WHETHER VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND
LIMITS SURFACE WARMING.

A TRAILING PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCING
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT. THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD EXTEND
THROUGH THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. LOTS
OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR THIS POTENTIAL TRAILING SYSTEM. SO
PUTTING HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND GENERAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AS THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GIVE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT MORE NORTH...BUT AGAIN...
THERE IS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AND DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
GET CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIODS STARTS OUT THURSDAY MORNING WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY SPREAD SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD WITH QPF SO WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. ALSO PLUME
DIAGRAM FOR ALB FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW SEVERAL MEMBERS WITH
AROUND 0.25 INCH QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY.
DETERMINISTIC QPF LOOKS RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT HEAVIER
PRECIP IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IF THE UPSTREAM
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES DEEPER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THE FRONT/WAVE COULD SPREAD FARTHER NORTH INTO OUR AREA.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

BY LATE THURSDAY THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO QUICKLY BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND AS A W-SW FLOW REGIME SETS UP. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. AFTER A COLD
DAY FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END BY AROUND 08Z...TAPERING TO SCT
-SHSN UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 08Z...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR/VFR BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED
BY 12Z-15Z AS CIG HEIGHTS RISE AND -SHSN END. CLEARING SKIES WILL
OCCUR THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE S-SW AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN WILL SHIFT
TO THE W-NW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 12-19 KTS THIS
MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS COMMON BY THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KALB/KPSF. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
WED NT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY TODAY...
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...
AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 020937
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
437 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CANCELLED AS ANY PATCHES OF MODERATE
SNOW WITHIN THE DECREASING COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW HAVE ENDED...

SOME WEAK FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT IS
SUPPORTING SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES BUT COVERAGE IS
DECREASING AND WILL TREND TO JUST SNOW SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
ONCE COLD ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS BECOME
STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE
THROUGH THE DAY BUT THE WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING...AND HIGHS TODAY
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 30S IN MANY AREAS...WITH 20S IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
TREND TO CALM BY DAYBREAK. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST
AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL AS RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY SHOULD SUPPORT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS BUT BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN AREAS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 1-4
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO SOUTHERN
VERMONT. PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE AND NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR 4 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY FREEZING RAIN CAN GET. SO...
NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES YET...BUT MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME
CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SOME HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AS
THIS EVENT DRAWS NEARER. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RISE A FEW DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. KEEPING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE LOW
LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS
AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID 40S
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...DEPENDING ON WHETHER VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND
LIMITS SURFACE WARMING.

A TRAILING PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCING
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT. THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD EXTEND
THROUGH THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. LOTS
OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR THIS POTENTIAL TRAILING SYSTEM. SO
PUTTING HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND GENERAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AS THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GIVE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT MORE NORTH...BUT AGAIN...
THERE IS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AND DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
GET CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIODS STARTS OUT THURSDAY MORNING WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY SPREAD SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD WITH QPF SO WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. ALSO PLUME
DIAGRAM FOR ALB FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW SEVERAL MEMBERS WITH
AROUND 0.25 INCH QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY.
DETERMINISTIC QPF LOOKS RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT HEAVIER
PRECIP IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IF THE UPSTREAM
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES DEEPER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THE FRONT/WAVE COULD SPREAD FARTHER NORTH INTO OUR AREA.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

BY LATE THURSDAY THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO QUICKLY BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND AS A W-SW FLOW REGIME SETS UP. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. AFTER A COLD
DAY FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING.


&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END BY AROUND 08Z...TAPERING TO SCT
-SHSN UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 08Z...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR/VFR BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED
BY 12Z-15Z AS CIG HEIGHTS RISE AND -SHSN END. CLEARING SKIES WILL
OCCUR THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE S-SW AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN WILL SHIFT
TO THE W-NW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 12-19 KTS THIS
MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS COMMON BY THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KALB/KPSF. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
WED NT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY TODAY...
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...
AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 020937
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
437 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CANCELLED AS ANY PATCHES OF MODERATE
SNOW WITHIN THE DECREASING COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW HAVE ENDED...

SOME WEAK FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT IS
SUPPORTING SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES BUT COVERAGE IS
DECREASING AND WILL TREND TO JUST SNOW SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
ONCE COLD ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS BECOME
STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE
THROUGH THE DAY BUT THE WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING...AND HIGHS TODAY
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 30S IN MANY AREAS...WITH 20S IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
TREND TO CALM BY DAYBREAK. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST
AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL AS RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY SHOULD SUPPORT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS BUT BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN AREAS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 1-4
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO SOUTHERN
VERMONT. PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE AND NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR 4 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY FREEZING RAIN CAN GET. SO...
NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES YET...BUT MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME
CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SOME HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AS
THIS EVENT DRAWS NEARER. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RISE A FEW DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. KEEPING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE LOW
LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS
AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID 40S
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...DEPENDING ON WHETHER VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND
LIMITS SURFACE WARMING.

A TRAILING PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCING
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT. THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD EXTEND
THROUGH THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. LOTS
OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR THIS POTENTIAL TRAILING SYSTEM. SO
PUTTING HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND GENERAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AS THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GIVE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT MORE NORTH...BUT AGAIN...
THERE IS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AND DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
GET CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIODS STARTS OUT THURSDAY MORNING WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY SPREAD SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD WITH QPF SO WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. ALSO PLUME
DIAGRAM FOR ALB FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW SEVERAL MEMBERS WITH
AROUND 0.25 INCH QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY.
DETERMINISTIC QPF LOOKS RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT HEAVIER
PRECIP IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IF THE UPSTREAM
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES DEEPER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THE FRONT/WAVE COULD SPREAD FARTHER NORTH INTO OUR AREA.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

BY LATE THURSDAY THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO QUICKLY BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND AS A W-SW FLOW REGIME SETS UP. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. AFTER A COLD
DAY FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING.


&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END BY AROUND 08Z...TAPERING TO SCT
-SHSN UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 08Z...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR/VFR BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED
BY 12Z-15Z AS CIG HEIGHTS RISE AND -SHSN END. CLEARING SKIES WILL
OCCUR THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE S-SW AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN WILL SHIFT
TO THE W-NW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 12-19 KTS THIS
MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS COMMON BY THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KALB/KPSF. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
WED NT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY TODAY...
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...
AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 020933
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
433 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EST MONDAY...SNOW HAS TRANSITIONED TO OROGRAPHICALLY
DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND
MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE EVEN. SNOWFALL
WILL BE LIGHT WITH TWO INCHES OR LESS OF ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL ENHANCE
SNOWFALL A BIT...THEN SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL END. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TODAY DESPITE AMPLE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND
AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD. SURFACE
WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE
MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT
TIMES. DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE GRADUAL
CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 020933
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
433 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EST MONDAY...SNOW HAS TRANSITIONED TO OROGRAPHICALLY
DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND
MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE EVEN. SNOWFALL
WILL BE LIGHT WITH TWO INCHES OR LESS OF ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL ENHANCE
SNOWFALL A BIT...THEN SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL END. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TODAY DESPITE AMPLE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND
AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD. SURFACE
WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE
MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT
TIMES. DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE GRADUAL
CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 020933
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
433 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EST MONDAY...SNOW HAS TRANSITIONED TO OROGRAPHICALLY
DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND
MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE EVEN. SNOWFALL
WILL BE LIGHT WITH TWO INCHES OR LESS OF ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL ENHANCE
SNOWFALL A BIT...THEN SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL END. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TODAY DESPITE AMPLE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND
AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD. SURFACE
WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE
MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT
TIMES. DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE GRADUAL
CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 020933
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
433 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EST MONDAY...SNOW HAS TRANSITIONED TO OROGRAPHICALLY
DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND
MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE EVEN. SNOWFALL
WILL BE LIGHT WITH TWO INCHES OR LESS OF ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL ENHANCE
SNOWFALL A BIT...THEN SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL END. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TODAY DESPITE AMPLE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EST MONDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ALSO DROP OFF. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EASTWARD...A SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW FROM ABOUT 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WED.
GENERALLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXING IN
BRIEFLY. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY MILD DUE TO
PRECIPITATION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER. DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION. NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THIS TIME DUE TO GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF
PASSAGE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND
AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD. SURFACE
WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE
MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT
TIMES. DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE GRADUAL
CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 020851
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
351 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR
DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 1230
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR SHOWING BACK
EDGE OF SYNOPTIC DRIVEN SNOW FROM NEAR SARANAC LAKE TO THE
NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF TO NORTH AND WEST,
AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AND EAST. ORGANIZED SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST AS UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW EXITS THE
REGION. SNOW WILL TRANSITION OVERNIGHT TO OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN
SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND MOISTURE
REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST STILL LOOK GOOD, WITH SNOW CHARACTERIZED AS LIGHT AND
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES TRACKING NICELY WITH OBSERVED, AND NO CHANGES THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND
AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD. SURFACE
WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE
MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT
TIMES. DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE GRADUAL
CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NEILES/HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 020851
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
351 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR
DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 1230
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR SHOWING BACK
EDGE OF SYNOPTIC DRIVEN SNOW FROM NEAR SARANAC LAKE TO THE
NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF TO NORTH AND WEST,
AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AND EAST. ORGANIZED SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST AS UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW EXITS THE
REGION. SNOW WILL TRANSITION OVERNIGHT TO OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN
SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND MOISTURE
REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST STILL LOOK GOOD, WITH SNOW CHARACTERIZED AS LIGHT AND
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES TRACKING NICELY WITH OBSERVED, AND NO CHANGES THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND
AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD. SURFACE
WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE
MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT
TIMES. DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE GRADUAL
CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NEILES/HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 020851
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
351 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR
DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 1230
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR SHOWING BACK
EDGE OF SYNOPTIC DRIVEN SNOW FROM NEAR SARANAC LAKE TO THE
NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF TO NORTH AND WEST,
AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AND EAST. ORGANIZED SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST AS UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW EXITS THE
REGION. SNOW WILL TRANSITION OVERNIGHT TO OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN
SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND MOISTURE
REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST STILL LOOK GOOD, WITH SNOW CHARACTERIZED AS LIGHT AND
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES TRACKING NICELY WITH OBSERVED, AND NO CHANGES THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND
AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD. SURFACE
WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE
MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT
TIMES. DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE GRADUAL
CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NEILES/HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 020851
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
351 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR
DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 1230
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR SHOWING BACK
EDGE OF SYNOPTIC DRIVEN SNOW FROM NEAR SARANAC LAKE TO THE
NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF TO NORTH AND WEST,
AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AND EAST. ORGANIZED SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST AS UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW EXITS THE
REGION. SNOW WILL TRANSITION OVERNIGHT TO OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN
SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND MOISTURE
REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST STILL LOOK GOOD, WITH SNOW CHARACTERIZED AS LIGHT AND
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES TRACKING NICELY WITH OBSERVED, AND NO CHANGES THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND
AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD. SURFACE
WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE
MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT
TIMES. DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE GRADUAL
CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NEILES/HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 020851
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
351 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR
DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 1230
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR SHOWING BACK
EDGE OF SYNOPTIC DRIVEN SNOW FROM NEAR SARANAC LAKE TO THE
NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF TO NORTH AND WEST,
AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AND EAST. ORGANIZED SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST AS UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW EXITS THE
REGION. SNOW WILL TRANSITION OVERNIGHT TO OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN
SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND MOISTURE
REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST STILL LOOK GOOD, WITH SNOW CHARACTERIZED AS LIGHT AND
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES TRACKING NICELY WITH OBSERVED, AND NO CHANGES THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND
AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD. SURFACE
WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE
MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT
TIMES. DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE GRADUAL
CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NEILES/HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 020851
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
351 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR
DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 1230
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR SHOWING BACK
EDGE OF SYNOPTIC DRIVEN SNOW FROM NEAR SARANAC LAKE TO THE
NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF TO NORTH AND WEST,
AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AND EAST. ORGANIZED SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST AS UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW EXITS THE
REGION. SNOW WILL TRANSITION OVERNIGHT TO OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN
SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND MOISTURE
REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST STILL LOOK GOOD, WITH SNOW CHARACTERIZED AS LIGHT AND
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES TRACKING NICELY WITH OBSERVED, AND NO CHANGES THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 AM EST MONDAY...BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EWD PROVIDING FOR LOW-LEVEL NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKING AT BELOW AVG TEMPS WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S (10-15DEG BELOW
NORMAL). RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTL THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING LOWS -5F TO
+5F...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PROVIDING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FREEZING. INCLUDED 20-30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND
AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION GROUND
OPERATIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD. SURFACE
WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME NW AND GUSTY DURING THE
MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS AT
TIMES. DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. SHOULD SEE GRADUAL
CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NEILES/HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 020614
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
114 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR
DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 1230
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR SHOWING BACK
EDGE OF SYNOPTIC DRIVEN SNOW FROM NEAR SARANAC LAKE TO THE
NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF TO NORTH AND WEST,
AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AND EAST. ORGANIZED SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST AS UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW EXITS THE
REGION. SNOW WILL TRANSITION OVERNIGHT TO OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN
SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND MOISTURE
REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST STILL LOOK GOOD, WITH SNOW CHARACTERIZED AS LIGHT AND
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES TRACKING NICELY WITH OBSERVED, AND NO CHANGES THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 00Z AND THE
12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDING AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR
REACHING THE BTV AREA. THAT WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESULTING IN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIXED PTYPES ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY
KEEPS THE SURFACE/925/850/700MB 0C LINES ALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THE TIME PERIOD RESULTING IN ALMOST ALL SNOW WHEREAS THE
GFS IS SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY IN ITS TRACK LEADING TO SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY TOWARDS THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM (LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY) AS THE
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE 1000-700MB LAYER RH DISSIPATES IN BOTH
MODELS AND THE PWATS DROP FROM 0.7" TO 0.25" BY 18Z. SO THE MORAL
OF THE STORY IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE WIDE SPREAD PRECIPITATION
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH BY 18-00Z. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL WARM THE ENTIRE REGION TO ABOVE 35F
GETTING CLOSE TO 40F BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY DROPPING
OFF DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY
TO ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY
TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW BUT
THATS ABOUT IT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO JUST BELOW
IN THE NOTORIOUS COLD SPOTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE AREA IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS SEEING
SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE GRADUALLY WARMING TREND TOWARDS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH TEMPS WARMING TO
AROUND FREEZING IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY
WINDS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ABOVE 1500 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCATION WITH
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND
AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION
GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD.
SURFACE WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME NW AND GUSTY
DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO
20-30 KTS AT TIMES. DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S..
SHOULD SEE GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER
00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NEILES/HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...BANACOS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 020614
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
114 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR
DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 1230
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR SHOWING BACK
EDGE OF SYNOPTIC DRIVEN SNOW FROM NEAR SARANAC LAKE TO THE
NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF TO NORTH AND WEST,
AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AND EAST. ORGANIZED SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST AS UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW EXITS THE
REGION. SNOW WILL TRANSITION OVERNIGHT TO OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN
SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND MOISTURE
REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST STILL LOOK GOOD, WITH SNOW CHARACTERIZED AS LIGHT AND
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES TRACKING NICELY WITH OBSERVED, AND NO CHANGES THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 00Z AND THE
12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDING AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR
REACHING THE BTV AREA. THAT WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESULTING IN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIXED PTYPES ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY
KEEPS THE SURFACE/925/850/700MB 0C LINES ALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THE TIME PERIOD RESULTING IN ALMOST ALL SNOW WHEREAS THE
GFS IS SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY IN ITS TRACK LEADING TO SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY TOWARDS THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM (LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY) AS THE
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE 1000-700MB LAYER RH DISSIPATES IN BOTH
MODELS AND THE PWATS DROP FROM 0.7" TO 0.25" BY 18Z. SO THE MORAL
OF THE STORY IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE WIDE SPREAD PRECIPITATION
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH BY 18-00Z. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL WARM THE ENTIRE REGION TO ABOVE 35F
GETTING CLOSE TO 40F BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY DROPPING
OFF DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY
TO ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY
TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW BUT
THATS ABOUT IT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO JUST BELOW
IN THE NOTORIOUS COLD SPOTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE AREA IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS SEEING
SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE GRADUALLY WARMING TREND TOWARDS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH TEMPS WARMING TO
AROUND FREEZING IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY
WINDS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ABOVE 1500 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCATION WITH
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND
AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION
GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD.
SURFACE WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME NW AND GUSTY
DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO
20-30 KTS AT TIMES. DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S..
SHOULD SEE GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER
00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NEILES/HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...BANACOS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 020614
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
114 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR
DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 1230
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR SHOWING BACK
EDGE OF SYNOPTIC DRIVEN SNOW FROM NEAR SARANAC LAKE TO THE
NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF TO NORTH AND WEST,
AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AND EAST. ORGANIZED SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST AS UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW EXITS THE
REGION. SNOW WILL TRANSITION OVERNIGHT TO OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN
SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND MOISTURE
REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST STILL LOOK GOOD, WITH SNOW CHARACTERIZED AS LIGHT AND
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES TRACKING NICELY WITH OBSERVED, AND NO CHANGES THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 00Z AND THE
12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDING AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR
REACHING THE BTV AREA. THAT WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESULTING IN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIXED PTYPES ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY
KEEPS THE SURFACE/925/850/700MB 0C LINES ALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THE TIME PERIOD RESULTING IN ALMOST ALL SNOW WHEREAS THE
GFS IS SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY IN ITS TRACK LEADING TO SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY TOWARDS THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM (LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY) AS THE
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE 1000-700MB LAYER RH DISSIPATES IN BOTH
MODELS AND THE PWATS DROP FROM 0.7" TO 0.25" BY 18Z. SO THE MORAL
OF THE STORY IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE WIDE SPREAD PRECIPITATION
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH BY 18-00Z. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL WARM THE ENTIRE REGION TO ABOVE 35F
GETTING CLOSE TO 40F BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY DROPPING
OFF DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY
TO ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY
TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW BUT
THATS ABOUT IT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO JUST BELOW
IN THE NOTORIOUS COLD SPOTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE AREA IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS SEEING
SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE GRADUALLY WARMING TREND TOWARDS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH TEMPS WARMING TO
AROUND FREEZING IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY
WINDS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ABOVE 1500 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCATION WITH
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND
AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION
GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD.
SURFACE WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME NW AND GUSTY
DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO
20-30 KTS AT TIMES. DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S..
SHOULD SEE GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER
00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NEILES/HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...BANACOS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 020614
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
114 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR
DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 1230
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR SHOWING BACK
EDGE OF SYNOPTIC DRIVEN SNOW FROM NEAR SARANAC LAKE TO THE
NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF TO NORTH AND WEST,
AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AND EAST. ORGANIZED SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST AS UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW EXITS THE
REGION. SNOW WILL TRANSITION OVERNIGHT TO OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN
SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND MOISTURE
REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST STILL LOOK GOOD, WITH SNOW CHARACTERIZED AS LIGHT AND
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES TRACKING NICELY WITH OBSERVED, AND NO CHANGES THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 00Z AND THE
12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDING AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR
REACHING THE BTV AREA. THAT WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESULTING IN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIXED PTYPES ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY
KEEPS THE SURFACE/925/850/700MB 0C LINES ALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THE TIME PERIOD RESULTING IN ALMOST ALL SNOW WHEREAS THE
GFS IS SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY IN ITS TRACK LEADING TO SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY TOWARDS THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM (LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY) AS THE
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE 1000-700MB LAYER RH DISSIPATES IN BOTH
MODELS AND THE PWATS DROP FROM 0.7" TO 0.25" BY 18Z. SO THE MORAL
OF THE STORY IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE WIDE SPREAD PRECIPITATION
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH BY 18-00Z. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL WARM THE ENTIRE REGION TO ABOVE 35F
GETTING CLOSE TO 40F BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY DROPPING
OFF DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY
TO ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY
TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW BUT
THATS ABOUT IT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO JUST BELOW
IN THE NOTORIOUS COLD SPOTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE AREA IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS SEEING
SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE GRADUALLY WARMING TREND TOWARDS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH TEMPS WARMING TO
AROUND FREEZING IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY
WINDS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ABOVE 1500 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCATION WITH
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND
AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION
GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD.
SURFACE WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME NW AND GUSTY
DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO
20-30 KTS AT TIMES. DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S..
SHOULD SEE GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER
00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NEILES/HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...BANACOS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 020614
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
114 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR
DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 1230
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR SHOWING BACK
EDGE OF SYNOPTIC DRIVEN SNOW FROM NEAR SARANAC LAKE TO THE
NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF TO NORTH AND WEST,
AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AND EAST. ORGANIZED SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST AS UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW EXITS THE
REGION. SNOW WILL TRANSITION OVERNIGHT TO OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN
SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND MOISTURE
REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST STILL LOOK GOOD, WITH SNOW CHARACTERIZED AS LIGHT AND
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES TRACKING NICELY WITH OBSERVED, AND NO CHANGES THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 00Z AND THE
12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDING AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR
REACHING THE BTV AREA. THAT WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESULTING IN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIXED PTYPES ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY
KEEPS THE SURFACE/925/850/700MB 0C LINES ALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THE TIME PERIOD RESULTING IN ALMOST ALL SNOW WHEREAS THE
GFS IS SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY IN ITS TRACK LEADING TO SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY TOWARDS THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM (LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY) AS THE
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE 1000-700MB LAYER RH DISSIPATES IN BOTH
MODELS AND THE PWATS DROP FROM 0.7" TO 0.25" BY 18Z. SO THE MORAL
OF THE STORY IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE WIDE SPREAD PRECIPITATION
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH BY 18-00Z. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL WARM THE ENTIRE REGION TO ABOVE 35F
GETTING CLOSE TO 40F BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY DROPPING
OFF DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY
TO ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY
TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW BUT
THATS ABOUT IT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO JUST BELOW
IN THE NOTORIOUS COLD SPOTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE AREA IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS SEEING
SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE GRADUALLY WARMING TREND TOWARDS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH TEMPS WARMING TO
AROUND FREEZING IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY
WINDS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ABOVE 1500 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCATION WITH
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND
AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION
GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD.
SURFACE WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME NW AND GUSTY
DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO
20-30 KTS AT TIMES. DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S..
SHOULD SEE GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER
00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NEILES/HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...BANACOS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 020614
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
114 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR
DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 1230
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR SHOWING BACK
EDGE OF SYNOPTIC DRIVEN SNOW FROM NEAR SARANAC LAKE TO THE
NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF TO NORTH AND WEST,
AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AND EAST. ORGANIZED SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST AS UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW EXITS THE
REGION. SNOW WILL TRANSITION OVERNIGHT TO OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN
SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND MOISTURE
REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST STILL LOOK GOOD, WITH SNOW CHARACTERIZED AS LIGHT AND
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES TRACKING NICELY WITH OBSERVED, AND NO CHANGES THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 00Z AND THE
12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDING AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR
REACHING THE BTV AREA. THAT WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESULTING IN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIXED PTYPES ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY
KEEPS THE SURFACE/925/850/700MB 0C LINES ALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THE TIME PERIOD RESULTING IN ALMOST ALL SNOW WHEREAS THE
GFS IS SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY IN ITS TRACK LEADING TO SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY TOWARDS THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM (LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY) AS THE
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE 1000-700MB LAYER RH DISSIPATES IN BOTH
MODELS AND THE PWATS DROP FROM 0.7" TO 0.25" BY 18Z. SO THE MORAL
OF THE STORY IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE WIDE SPREAD PRECIPITATION
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH BY 18-00Z. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL WARM THE ENTIRE REGION TO ABOVE 35F
GETTING CLOSE TO 40F BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY DROPPING
OFF DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY
TO ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY
TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW BUT
THATS ABOUT IT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO JUST BELOW
IN THE NOTORIOUS COLD SPOTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE AREA IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS SEEING
SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE GRADUALLY WARMING TREND TOWARDS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH TEMPS WARMING TO
AROUND FREEZING IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY
WINDS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ABOVE 1500 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCATION WITH
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND
AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION
GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD.
SURFACE WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME NW AND GUSTY
DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO
20-30 KTS AT TIMES. DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S..
SHOULD SEE GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER
00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NEILES/HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...BANACOS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 020614
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
114 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR
DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 1230
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR SHOWING BACK
EDGE OF SYNOPTIC DRIVEN SNOW FROM NEAR SARANAC LAKE TO THE
NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF TO NORTH AND WEST,
AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AND EAST. ORGANIZED SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST AS UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW EXITS THE
REGION. SNOW WILL TRANSITION OVERNIGHT TO OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN
SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND MOISTURE
REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST STILL LOOK GOOD, WITH SNOW CHARACTERIZED AS LIGHT AND
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES TRACKING NICELY WITH OBSERVED, AND NO CHANGES THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 00Z AND THE
12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDING AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR
REACHING THE BTV AREA. THAT WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESULTING IN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIXED PTYPES ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY
KEEPS THE SURFACE/925/850/700MB 0C LINES ALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THE TIME PERIOD RESULTING IN ALMOST ALL SNOW WHEREAS THE
GFS IS SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY IN ITS TRACK LEADING TO SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY TOWARDS THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM (LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY) AS THE
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE 1000-700MB LAYER RH DISSIPATES IN BOTH
MODELS AND THE PWATS DROP FROM 0.7" TO 0.25" BY 18Z. SO THE MORAL
OF THE STORY IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE WIDE SPREAD PRECIPITATION
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH BY 18-00Z. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL WARM THE ENTIRE REGION TO ABOVE 35F
GETTING CLOSE TO 40F BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY DROPPING
OFF DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY
TO ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY
TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW BUT
THATS ABOUT IT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO JUST BELOW
IN THE NOTORIOUS COLD SPOTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE AREA IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS SEEING
SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE GRADUALLY WARMING TREND TOWARDS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH TEMPS WARMING TO
AROUND FREEZING IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY
WINDS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ABOVE 1500 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCATION WITH
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND
AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION
GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD.
SURFACE WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME NW AND GUSTY
DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO
20-30 KTS AT TIMES. DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S..
SHOULD SEE GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER
00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NEILES/HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...BANACOS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 020614
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
114 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR
DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 1230
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR SHOWING BACK
EDGE OF SYNOPTIC DRIVEN SNOW FROM NEAR SARANAC LAKE TO THE
NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF TO NORTH AND WEST,
AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AND EAST. ORGANIZED SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST AS UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW EXITS THE
REGION. SNOW WILL TRANSITION OVERNIGHT TO OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN
SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND MOISTURE
REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST STILL LOOK GOOD, WITH SNOW CHARACTERIZED AS LIGHT AND
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES TRACKING NICELY WITH OBSERVED, AND NO CHANGES THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 00Z AND THE
12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDING AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR
REACHING THE BTV AREA. THAT WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESULTING IN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIXED PTYPES ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY
KEEPS THE SURFACE/925/850/700MB 0C LINES ALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THE TIME PERIOD RESULTING IN ALMOST ALL SNOW WHEREAS THE
GFS IS SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY IN ITS TRACK LEADING TO SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY TOWARDS THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM (LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY) AS THE
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE 1000-700MB LAYER RH DISSIPATES IN BOTH
MODELS AND THE PWATS DROP FROM 0.7" TO 0.25" BY 18Z. SO THE MORAL
OF THE STORY IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE WIDE SPREAD PRECIPITATION
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH BY 18-00Z. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL WARM THE ENTIRE REGION TO ABOVE 35F
GETTING CLOSE TO 40F BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY DROPPING
OFF DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY
TO ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY
TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW BUT
THATS ABOUT IT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO JUST BELOW
IN THE NOTORIOUS COLD SPOTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE AREA IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS SEEING
SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE GRADUALLY WARMING TREND TOWARDS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH TEMPS WARMING TO
AROUND FREEZING IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY
WINDS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ABOVE 1500 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TAF LOCATIONS PRODUCING VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCATION WITH
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND
AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE SOME MINOR IMPACTS TO AVIATION
GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. HIR TRRN GENERALLY OBSCD.
SURFACE WINDS INITIALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME NW AND GUSTY
DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO
20-30 KTS AT TIMES. DIMINISHING NW WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S..
SHOULD SEE GRADUAL CLEARING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER
00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING. APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NEILES/HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...BANACOS



000
FXUS61 KALY 020545
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS BRINGING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN
LATE TODAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

MAIN UPPER ENERGY EXITING BUT SOME WEAK CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY
AND SOME ENHANCED CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM IN WESTERN PA AND WESTERN NY
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...INTERMITTENT IN THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NE CT...AND ALSO
INTERMITTENT IN THE LAKE GEORGE AREA. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR
LESS...AND IN MANY AREAS JUST A DUSTING. HOWEVER...KEEPING
HEADLINES IN PLACE UNTIL ALL PRECIPITATION EXITS SINCE TRAVEL IS
STILL QUESTIONABLE IN MANY AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA.
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS.

ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

FOR TUESDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS BY 6 PM ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. AT THIS POINT
WILL CALL FOR HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST 01/12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
A DOMAIN RANGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WESTWARD INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SHOWS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
START AS SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS LOWER TO MID LEVEL WEAK
WAA WILL BE ESTABLISHED OUT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL STRIP VORTICITY
WITH MAXIMUM ENHANCING PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM AND ALONG A
PROGRESSING SURFACE COLD FRONT. STRONGER WAA WILL BE PRESENT MOVING
INTO THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY WHERE A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE 925-850 HPA WIND FIELD WILL
SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS WE GO PAST 12Z WEDNESDAY...MOST
AREAS WILL SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN AT TIMES WITH SNOW IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AS MOST OF THE AREA STILL HAVE SEVERAL
INCHES TO A FEW FEET OF SNOW COVER STILL ON THE GROUND...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL STILL SUPPORT ICY CONDITIONS AS A COLD RAIN WILL FALL
FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS RAIN WILL
MAKE CONTACT WITH A FROZEN SURFACE AND A SURFACE WITH SEVERAL FEET
OF FROST DEPTH. AS WE HEAD TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AS WE APPROACH
00Z WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL END AS SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AS MODERATE CAA RETURNS TO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT FOLLOW DIURNAL TRENDS. LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH FOLLOWS MORE AMERICAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH 850 HPA
AND 925 HPA TEMPS BETWEEN 0C AND 4C WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
BRIEFLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADKS TO LOW AND MID 40S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID AND UPPER TEENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE SOME LOW POPS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK. OTHERWISE MOST OF THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
TRANQUIL. SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NY/CANADA BORDER DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND MAY
MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END BY AROUND 08Z...TAPERING TO SCT
-SHSN UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 08Z...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR/VFR BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED
BY 12Z-15Z AS CIG HEIGHTS RISE AND -SHSN END. CLEARING SKIES WILL
OCCUR THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE S-SW AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN WILL SHIFT
TO THE W-NW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 12-19 KTS THIS
MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS COMMON BY THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KALB/KPSF. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
WED NT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SNOW
WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013-
     014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 020545
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS BRINGING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN
LATE TODAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

MAIN UPPER ENERGY EXITING BUT SOME WEAK CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY
AND SOME ENHANCED CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM IN WESTERN PA AND WESTERN NY
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...INTERMITTENT IN THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NE CT...AND ALSO
INTERMITTENT IN THE LAKE GEORGE AREA. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR
LESS...AND IN MANY AREAS JUST A DUSTING. HOWEVER...KEEPING
HEADLINES IN PLACE UNTIL ALL PRECIPITATION EXITS SINCE TRAVEL IS
STILL QUESTIONABLE IN MANY AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA.
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS.

ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

FOR TUESDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS BY 6 PM ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. AT THIS POINT
WILL CALL FOR HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST 01/12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
A DOMAIN RANGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WESTWARD INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SHOWS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
START AS SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS LOWER TO MID LEVEL WEAK
WAA WILL BE ESTABLISHED OUT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL STRIP VORTICITY
WITH MAXIMUM ENHANCING PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM AND ALONG A
PROGRESSING SURFACE COLD FRONT. STRONGER WAA WILL BE PRESENT MOVING
INTO THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY WHERE A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE 925-850 HPA WIND FIELD WILL
SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS WE GO PAST 12Z WEDNESDAY...MOST
AREAS WILL SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN AT TIMES WITH SNOW IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AS MOST OF THE AREA STILL HAVE SEVERAL
INCHES TO A FEW FEET OF SNOW COVER STILL ON THE GROUND...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL STILL SUPPORT ICY CONDITIONS AS A COLD RAIN WILL FALL
FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS RAIN WILL
MAKE CONTACT WITH A FROZEN SURFACE AND A SURFACE WITH SEVERAL FEET
OF FROST DEPTH. AS WE HEAD TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AS WE APPROACH
00Z WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL END AS SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AS MODERATE CAA RETURNS TO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT FOLLOW DIURNAL TRENDS. LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH FOLLOWS MORE AMERICAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH 850 HPA
AND 925 HPA TEMPS BETWEEN 0C AND 4C WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
BRIEFLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADKS TO LOW AND MID 40S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID AND UPPER TEENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE SOME LOW POPS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK. OTHERWISE MOST OF THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
TRANQUIL. SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NY/CANADA BORDER DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND MAY
MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END BY AROUND 08Z...TAPERING TO SCT
-SHSN UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 08Z...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR/VFR BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED
BY 12Z-15Z AS CIG HEIGHTS RISE AND -SHSN END. CLEARING SKIES WILL
OCCUR THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE S-SW AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN WILL SHIFT
TO THE W-NW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 12-19 KTS THIS
MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS COMMON BY THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KALB/KPSF. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
WED NT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SNOW
WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013-
     014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 020545
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS BRINGING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN
LATE TODAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

MAIN UPPER ENERGY EXITING BUT SOME WEAK CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY
AND SOME ENHANCED CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM IN WESTERN PA AND WESTERN NY
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...INTERMITTENT IN THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NE CT...AND ALSO
INTERMITTENT IN THE LAKE GEORGE AREA. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR
LESS...AND IN MANY AREAS JUST A DUSTING. HOWEVER...KEEPING
HEADLINES IN PLACE UNTIL ALL PRECIPITATION EXITS SINCE TRAVEL IS
STILL QUESTIONABLE IN MANY AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA.
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS.

ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

FOR TUESDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS BY 6 PM ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. AT THIS POINT
WILL CALL FOR HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST 01/12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
A DOMAIN RANGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WESTWARD INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SHOWS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
START AS SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS LOWER TO MID LEVEL WEAK
WAA WILL BE ESTABLISHED OUT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL STRIP VORTICITY
WITH MAXIMUM ENHANCING PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM AND ALONG A
PROGRESSING SURFACE COLD FRONT. STRONGER WAA WILL BE PRESENT MOVING
INTO THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY WHERE A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE 925-850 HPA WIND FIELD WILL
SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS WE GO PAST 12Z WEDNESDAY...MOST
AREAS WILL SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN AT TIMES WITH SNOW IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AS MOST OF THE AREA STILL HAVE SEVERAL
INCHES TO A FEW FEET OF SNOW COVER STILL ON THE GROUND...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL STILL SUPPORT ICY CONDITIONS AS A COLD RAIN WILL FALL
FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS RAIN WILL
MAKE CONTACT WITH A FROZEN SURFACE AND A SURFACE WITH SEVERAL FEET
OF FROST DEPTH. AS WE HEAD TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AS WE APPROACH
00Z WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL END AS SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AS MODERATE CAA RETURNS TO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT FOLLOW DIURNAL TRENDS. LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH FOLLOWS MORE AMERICAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH 850 HPA
AND 925 HPA TEMPS BETWEEN 0C AND 4C WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
BRIEFLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADKS TO LOW AND MID 40S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID AND UPPER TEENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE SOME LOW POPS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK. OTHERWISE MOST OF THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
TRANQUIL. SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NY/CANADA BORDER DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND MAY
MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END BY AROUND 08Z...TAPERING TO SCT
-SHSN UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 08Z...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR/VFR BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED
BY 12Z-15Z AS CIG HEIGHTS RISE AND -SHSN END. CLEARING SKIES WILL
OCCUR THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE S-SW AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN WILL SHIFT
TO THE W-NW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 12-19 KTS THIS
MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS COMMON BY THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KALB/KPSF. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
WED NT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SNOW
WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013-
     014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...JPV



000
FXUS61 KALY 020545
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS BRINGING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN
LATE TODAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

MAIN UPPER ENERGY EXITING BUT SOME WEAK CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY
AND SOME ENHANCED CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM IN WESTERN PA AND WESTERN NY
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...INTERMITTENT IN THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NE CT...AND ALSO
INTERMITTENT IN THE LAKE GEORGE AREA. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR
LESS...AND IN MANY AREAS JUST A DUSTING. HOWEVER...KEEPING
HEADLINES IN PLACE UNTIL ALL PRECIPITATION EXITS SINCE TRAVEL IS
STILL QUESTIONABLE IN MANY AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA.
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS.

ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

FOR TUESDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS BY 6 PM ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. AT THIS POINT
WILL CALL FOR HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST 01/12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
A DOMAIN RANGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WESTWARD INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SHOWS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
START AS SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS LOWER TO MID LEVEL WEAK
WAA WILL BE ESTABLISHED OUT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL STRIP VORTICITY
WITH MAXIMUM ENHANCING PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM AND ALONG A
PROGRESSING SURFACE COLD FRONT. STRONGER WAA WILL BE PRESENT MOVING
INTO THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY WHERE A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE 925-850 HPA WIND FIELD WILL
SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS WE GO PAST 12Z WEDNESDAY...MOST
AREAS WILL SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN AT TIMES WITH SNOW IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AS MOST OF THE AREA STILL HAVE SEVERAL
INCHES TO A FEW FEET OF SNOW COVER STILL ON THE GROUND...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL STILL SUPPORT ICY CONDITIONS AS A COLD RAIN WILL FALL
FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS RAIN WILL
MAKE CONTACT WITH A FROZEN SURFACE AND A SURFACE WITH SEVERAL FEET
OF FROST DEPTH. AS WE HEAD TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AS WE APPROACH
00Z WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL END AS SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AS MODERATE CAA RETURNS TO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT FOLLOW DIURNAL TRENDS. LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH FOLLOWS MORE AMERICAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH 850 HPA
AND 925 HPA TEMPS BETWEEN 0C AND 4C WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
BRIEFLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADKS TO LOW AND MID 40S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID AND UPPER TEENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE SOME LOW POPS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK. OTHERWISE MOST OF THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
TRANQUIL. SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NY/CANADA BORDER DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND MAY
MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END BY AROUND 08Z...TAPERING TO SCT
-SHSN UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 08Z...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR/VFR BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED
BY 12Z-15Z AS CIG HEIGHTS RISE AND -SHSN END. CLEARING SKIES WILL
OCCUR THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE S-SW AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS...THEN WILL SHIFT
TO THE W-NW AND STEADILY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 12-19 KTS THIS
MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS COMMON BY THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT KALB/KPSF. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
WED NT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SNOW
WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013-
     014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...JPV



000
FXUS61 KALY 020526
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1226 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS BRINGING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN
LATE TODAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

MAIN UPPER ENERGY EXITING BUT SOME WEAK CHANNELLED UPPER ENERGY
AND SOME ENHANCED CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM IN WESTERN PA AND WESTERN
NY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...INTERMITTENT IN THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NE CT...AND ALSO
INTERMITTENT IN THE LAKE GEORGE AREA. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR
LESS...AND IN MANY AREAS JUST A DUSTING. HOWEVER...KEEPING
HEADLINES IN PLACE UNITL ALL PRECIPITATION EXITS SINCE TRAVEL IS
STILL QUESTIONABLE IN MANY AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA.
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS.

ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

FOR TUESDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. A STREGTHENING STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS BY 6 PM ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. AT THIS POINT
WILL CALL FOR HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST 01/12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
A DOMAIN RANGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WESTWARD INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SHOWS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
START AS SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS LOWER TO MID LEVEL WEAK
WAA WILL BE ESTABLISHED OUT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL STRIP VORTICITY
WITH MAXIMUM ENHANCING PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM AND ALONG A
PROGRESSING SURFACE COLD FRONT. STRONGER WAA WILL BE PRESENT MOVING
INTO THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY WHERE A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE 925-850 HPA WIND FIELD WILL
SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS WE GO PAST 12Z WEDNESDAY...MOST
AREAS WILL SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN AT TIMES WITH SNOW IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AS MOST OF THE AREA STILL HAVE SEVERAL
INCHES TO A FEW FEET OF SNOW COVER STILL ON THE GROUND...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL STILL SUPPORT ICY CONDITIONS AS A COLD RAIN WILL FALL
FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS RAIN WILL
MAKE CONTACT WITH A FROZEN SURFACE AND A SURFACE WITH SEVERAL FEET
OF FROST DEPTH. AS WE HEAD TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AS WE APPROACH
00Z WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL END AS SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AS MODERATE CAA RETURNS TO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT FOLLOW DIURNAL TRENDS. LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH FOLLOWS MORE AMERICAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH 850 HPA
AND 925 HPA TEMPS BETWEEN 0C AND 4C WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
BRIEFLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADKS TO LOW AND MID 40S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID AND UPPER TEENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE SOME LOW POPS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK. OTHERWISE MOST OF THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
TRANQUIL. SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NY/CANADA BORDER DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND MAY
MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE INTERMITTENT AND SHOWERY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AT
LEAST 03Z/MON. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 03Z-06Z/MON INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY VFR RANGES AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BLOWING SNOW AND
OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS...ESP AT KALB AND KPSF.

SPEAKING OF WINDS...GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10 KT
THIS EVENING WILL TREND MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AT
LESS THAN 8 KT. THEN...AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES BEFORE DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT BY MID MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT
EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB AND KPSF...WHERE SOME GUSTS COULD
EVEN REACH INTO THE 35-38 KT RANGE AT TIMES MON AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SNOW
WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013-
     014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...JPV



000
FXUS61 KALY 020526
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1226 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS BRINGING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN
LATE TODAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

MAIN UPPER ENERGY EXITING BUT SOME WEAK CHANNELLED UPPER ENERGY
AND SOME ENHANCED CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM IN WESTERN PA AND WESTERN
NY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...INTERMITTENT IN THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NE CT...AND ALSO
INTERMITTENT IN THE LAKE GEORGE AREA. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR
LESS...AND IN MANY AREAS JUST A DUSTING. HOWEVER...KEEPING
HEADLINES IN PLACE UNITL ALL PRECIPITATION EXITS SINCE TRAVEL IS
STILL QUESTIONABLE IN MANY AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA.
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS.

ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

FOR TUESDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. A STREGTHENING STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS BY 6 PM ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. AT THIS POINT
WILL CALL FOR HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST 01/12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
A DOMAIN RANGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WESTWARD INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SHOWS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
START AS SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS LOWER TO MID LEVEL WEAK
WAA WILL BE ESTABLISHED OUT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL STRIP VORTICITY
WITH MAXIMUM ENHANCING PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM AND ALONG A
PROGRESSING SURFACE COLD FRONT. STRONGER WAA WILL BE PRESENT MOVING
INTO THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY WHERE A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE 925-850 HPA WIND FIELD WILL
SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS WE GO PAST 12Z WEDNESDAY...MOST
AREAS WILL SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN AT TIMES WITH SNOW IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AS MOST OF THE AREA STILL HAVE SEVERAL
INCHES TO A FEW FEET OF SNOW COVER STILL ON THE GROUND...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL STILL SUPPORT ICY CONDITIONS AS A COLD RAIN WILL FALL
FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS RAIN WILL
MAKE CONTACT WITH A FROZEN SURFACE AND A SURFACE WITH SEVERAL FEET
OF FROST DEPTH. AS WE HEAD TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AS WE APPROACH
00Z WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL END AS SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AS MODERATE CAA RETURNS TO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT FOLLOW DIURNAL TRENDS. LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH FOLLOWS MORE AMERICAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH 850 HPA
AND 925 HPA TEMPS BETWEEN 0C AND 4C WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
BRIEFLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADKS TO LOW AND MID 40S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID AND UPPER TEENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE SOME LOW POPS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK. OTHERWISE MOST OF THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
TRANQUIL. SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NY/CANADA BORDER DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND MAY
MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE INTERMITTENT AND SHOWERY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AT
LEAST 03Z/MON. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 03Z-06Z/MON INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY VFR RANGES AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BLOWING SNOW AND
OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS...ESP AT KALB AND KPSF.

SPEAKING OF WINDS...GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10 KT
THIS EVENING WILL TREND MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AT
LESS THAN 8 KT. THEN...AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES BEFORE DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT BY MID MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT
EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB AND KPSF...WHERE SOME GUSTS COULD
EVEN REACH INTO THE 35-38 KT RANGE AT TIMES MON AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SNOW
WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013-
     014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...JPV



000
FXUS61 KALY 020526
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1226 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS BRINGING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN
LATE TODAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

MAIN UPPER ENERGY EXITING BUT SOME WEAK CHANNELLED UPPER ENERGY
AND SOME ENHANCED CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM IN WESTERN PA AND WESTERN
NY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...INTERMITTENT IN THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NE CT...AND ALSO
INTERMITTENT IN THE LAKE GEORGE AREA. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR
LESS...AND IN MANY AREAS JUST A DUSTING. HOWEVER...KEEPING
HEADLINES IN PLACE UNITL ALL PRECIPITATION EXITS SINCE TRAVEL IS
STILL QUESTIONABLE IN MANY AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA.
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS.

ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

FOR TUESDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. A STREGTHENING STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS BY 6 PM ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. AT THIS POINT
WILL CALL FOR HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST 01/12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
A DOMAIN RANGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WESTWARD INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SHOWS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
START AS SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS LOWER TO MID LEVEL WEAK
WAA WILL BE ESTABLISHED OUT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL STRIP VORTICITY
WITH MAXIMUM ENHANCING PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM AND ALONG A
PROGRESSING SURFACE COLD FRONT. STRONGER WAA WILL BE PRESENT MOVING
INTO THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY WHERE A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE 925-850 HPA WIND FIELD WILL
SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS WE GO PAST 12Z WEDNESDAY...MOST
AREAS WILL SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN AT TIMES WITH SNOW IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AS MOST OF THE AREA STILL HAVE SEVERAL
INCHES TO A FEW FEET OF SNOW COVER STILL ON THE GROUND...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL STILL SUPPORT ICY CONDITIONS AS A COLD RAIN WILL FALL
FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS RAIN WILL
MAKE CONTACT WITH A FROZEN SURFACE AND A SURFACE WITH SEVERAL FEET
OF FROST DEPTH. AS WE HEAD TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AS WE APPROACH
00Z WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL END AS SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AS MODERATE CAA RETURNS TO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT FOLLOW DIURNAL TRENDS. LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH FOLLOWS MORE AMERICAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH 850 HPA
AND 925 HPA TEMPS BETWEEN 0C AND 4C WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
BRIEFLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADKS TO LOW AND MID 40S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID AND UPPER TEENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE SOME LOW POPS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK. OTHERWISE MOST OF THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
TRANQUIL. SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NY/CANADA BORDER DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND MAY
MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE INTERMITTENT AND SHOWERY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AT
LEAST 03Z/MON. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 03Z-06Z/MON INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY VFR RANGES AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BLOWING SNOW AND
OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS...ESP AT KALB AND KPSF.

SPEAKING OF WINDS...GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10 KT
THIS EVENING WILL TREND MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AT
LESS THAN 8 KT. THEN...AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES BEFORE DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT BY MID MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT
EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB AND KPSF...WHERE SOME GUSTS COULD
EVEN REACH INTO THE 35-38 KT RANGE AT TIMES MON AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SNOW
WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013-
     014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...JPV



000
FXUS61 KALY 020526
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1226 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS BRINGING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN
LATE TODAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

MAIN UPPER ENERGY EXITING BUT SOME WEAK CHANNELLED UPPER ENERGY
AND SOME ENHANCED CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM IN WESTERN PA AND WESTERN
NY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...INTERMITTENT IN THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NE CT...AND ALSO
INTERMITTENT IN THE LAKE GEORGE AREA. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR
LESS...AND IN MANY AREAS JUST A DUSTING. HOWEVER...KEEPING
HEADLINES IN PLACE UNITL ALL PRECIPITATION EXITS SINCE TRAVEL IS
STILL QUESTIONABLE IN MANY AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA.
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS.

ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

FOR TUESDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. A STREGTHENING STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS BY 6 PM ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. AT THIS POINT
WILL CALL FOR HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST 01/12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
A DOMAIN RANGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WESTWARD INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SHOWS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
START AS SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS LOWER TO MID LEVEL WEAK
WAA WILL BE ESTABLISHED OUT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL STRIP VORTICITY
WITH MAXIMUM ENHANCING PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM AND ALONG A
PROGRESSING SURFACE COLD FRONT. STRONGER WAA WILL BE PRESENT MOVING
INTO THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY WHERE A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE 925-850 HPA WIND FIELD WILL
SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS WE GO PAST 12Z WEDNESDAY...MOST
AREAS WILL SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN AT TIMES WITH SNOW IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AS MOST OF THE AREA STILL HAVE SEVERAL
INCHES TO A FEW FEET OF SNOW COVER STILL ON THE GROUND...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL STILL SUPPORT ICY CONDITIONS AS A COLD RAIN WILL FALL
FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS RAIN WILL
MAKE CONTACT WITH A FROZEN SURFACE AND A SURFACE WITH SEVERAL FEET
OF FROST DEPTH. AS WE HEAD TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AS WE APPROACH
00Z WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL END AS SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AS MODERATE CAA RETURNS TO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT FOLLOW DIURNAL TRENDS. LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH FOLLOWS MORE AMERICAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH 850 HPA
AND 925 HPA TEMPS BETWEEN 0C AND 4C WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
BRIEFLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADKS TO LOW AND MID 40S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID AND UPPER TEENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE SOME LOW POPS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK. OTHERWISE MOST OF THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
TRANQUIL. SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NY/CANADA BORDER DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND MAY
MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE INTERMITTENT AND SHOWERY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AT
LEAST 03Z/MON. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 03Z-06Z/MON INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY VFR RANGES AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BLOWING SNOW AND
OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS...ESP AT KALB AND KPSF.

SPEAKING OF WINDS...GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10 KT
THIS EVENING WILL TREND MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AT
LESS THAN 8 KT. THEN...AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES BEFORE DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT BY MID MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT
EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB AND KPSF...WHERE SOME GUSTS COULD
EVEN REACH INTO THE 35-38 KT RANGE AT TIMES MON AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SNOW
WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013-
     014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...JPV



000
FXUS61 KALY 020526
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1226 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS BRINGING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN
LATE TODAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

MAIN UPPER ENERGY EXITING BUT SOME WEAK CHANNELLED UPPER ENERGY
AND SOME ENHANCED CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM IN WESTERN PA AND WESTERN
NY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...INTERMITTENT IN THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NE CT...AND ALSO
INTERMITTENT IN THE LAKE GEORGE AREA. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR
LESS...AND IN MANY AREAS JUST A DUSTING. HOWEVER...KEEPING
HEADLINES IN PLACE UNITL ALL PRECIPITATION EXITS SINCE TRAVEL IS
STILL QUESTIONABLE IN MANY AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA.
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS.

ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

FOR TUESDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. A STREGTHENING STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS BY 6 PM ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. AT THIS POINT
WILL CALL FOR HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST 01/12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
A DOMAIN RANGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WESTWARD INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SHOWS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
START AS SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS LOWER TO MID LEVEL WEAK
WAA WILL BE ESTABLISHED OUT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL STRIP VORTICITY
WITH MAXIMUM ENHANCING PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM AND ALONG A
PROGRESSING SURFACE COLD FRONT. STRONGER WAA WILL BE PRESENT MOVING
INTO THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY WHERE A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE 925-850 HPA WIND FIELD WILL
SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS WE GO PAST 12Z WEDNESDAY...MOST
AREAS WILL SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN AT TIMES WITH SNOW IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AS MOST OF THE AREA STILL HAVE SEVERAL
INCHES TO A FEW FEET OF SNOW COVER STILL ON THE GROUND...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL STILL SUPPORT ICY CONDITIONS AS A COLD RAIN WILL FALL
FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS RAIN WILL
MAKE CONTACT WITH A FROZEN SURFACE AND A SURFACE WITH SEVERAL FEET
OF FROST DEPTH. AS WE HEAD TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AS WE APPROACH
00Z WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL END AS SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AS MODERATE CAA RETURNS TO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT FOLLOW DIURNAL TRENDS. LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH FOLLOWS MORE AMERICAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH 850 HPA
AND 925 HPA TEMPS BETWEEN 0C AND 4C WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
BRIEFLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADKS TO LOW AND MID 40S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID AND UPPER TEENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE SOME LOW POPS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK. OTHERWISE MOST OF THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
TRANQUIL. SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NY/CANADA BORDER DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND MAY
MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE INTERMITTENT AND SHOWERY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AT
LEAST 03Z/MON. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 03Z-06Z/MON INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY VFR RANGES AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BLOWING SNOW AND
OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS...ESP AT KALB AND KPSF.

SPEAKING OF WINDS...GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10 KT
THIS EVENING WILL TREND MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AT
LESS THAN 8 KT. THEN...AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES BEFORE DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT BY MID MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT
EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB AND KPSF...WHERE SOME GUSTS COULD
EVEN REACH INTO THE 35-38 KT RANGE AT TIMES MON AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SNOW
WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013-
     014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 020526
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1226 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS BRINGING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN
LATE TODAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

MAIN UPPER ENERGY EXITING BUT SOME WEAK CHANNELLED UPPER ENERGY
AND SOME ENHANCED CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM IN WESTERN PA AND WESTERN
NY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...INTERMITTENT IN THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NE CT...AND ALSO
INTERMITTENT IN THE LAKE GEORGE AREA. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR
LESS...AND IN MANY AREAS JUST A DUSTING. HOWEVER...KEEPING
HEADLINES IN PLACE UNITL ALL PRECIPITATION EXITS SINCE TRAVEL IS
STILL QUESTIONABLE IN MANY AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA.
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS.

ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

FOR TUESDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. A STREGTHENING STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS BY 6 PM ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. AT THIS POINT
WILL CALL FOR HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST 01/12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
A DOMAIN RANGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WESTWARD INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SHOWS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
START AS SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS LOWER TO MID LEVEL WEAK
WAA WILL BE ESTABLISHED OUT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL STRIP VORTICITY
WITH MAXIMUM ENHANCING PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM AND ALONG A
PROGRESSING SURFACE COLD FRONT. STRONGER WAA WILL BE PRESENT MOVING
INTO THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY WHERE A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE 925-850 HPA WIND FIELD WILL
SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS WE GO PAST 12Z WEDNESDAY...MOST
AREAS WILL SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN AT TIMES WITH SNOW IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AS MOST OF THE AREA STILL HAVE SEVERAL
INCHES TO A FEW FEET OF SNOW COVER STILL ON THE GROUND...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL STILL SUPPORT ICY CONDITIONS AS A COLD RAIN WILL FALL
FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS RAIN WILL
MAKE CONTACT WITH A FROZEN SURFACE AND A SURFACE WITH SEVERAL FEET
OF FROST DEPTH. AS WE HEAD TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AS WE APPROACH
00Z WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL END AS SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AS MODERATE CAA RETURNS TO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT FOLLOW DIURNAL TRENDS. LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH FOLLOWS MORE AMERICAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH 850 HPA
AND 925 HPA TEMPS BETWEEN 0C AND 4C WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
BRIEFLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADKS TO LOW AND MID 40S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID AND UPPER TEENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE SOME LOW POPS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK. OTHERWISE MOST OF THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
TRANQUIL. SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NY/CANADA BORDER DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND MAY
MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE INTERMITTENT AND SHOWERY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AT
LEAST 03Z/MON. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 03Z-06Z/MON INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY VFR RANGES AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BLOWING SNOW AND
OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS...ESP AT KALB AND KPSF.

SPEAKING OF WINDS...GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10 KT
THIS EVENING WILL TREND MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AT
LESS THAN 8 KT. THEN...AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES BEFORE DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT BY MID MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT
EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB AND KPSF...WHERE SOME GUSTS COULD
EVEN REACH INTO THE 35-38 KT RANGE AT TIMES MON AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SNOW
WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013-
     014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 020526
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1226 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS BRINGING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN
LATE TODAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

MAIN UPPER ENERGY EXITING BUT SOME WEAK CHANNELLED UPPER ENERGY
AND SOME ENHANCED CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM IN WESTERN PA AND WESTERN
NY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...INTERMITTENT IN THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NE CT...AND ALSO
INTERMITTENT IN THE LAKE GEORGE AREA. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR
LESS...AND IN MANY AREAS JUST A DUSTING. HOWEVER...KEEPING
HEADLINES IN PLACE UNITL ALL PRECIPITATION EXITS SINCE TRAVEL IS
STILL QUESTIONABLE IN MANY AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA.
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS.

ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

FOR TUESDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. A STREGTHENING STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS BY 6 PM ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. AT THIS POINT
WILL CALL FOR HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST 01/12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
A DOMAIN RANGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WESTWARD INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SHOWS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
START AS SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS LOWER TO MID LEVEL WEAK
WAA WILL BE ESTABLISHED OUT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL STRIP VORTICITY
WITH MAXIMUM ENHANCING PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM AND ALONG A
PROGRESSING SURFACE COLD FRONT. STRONGER WAA WILL BE PRESENT MOVING
INTO THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY WHERE A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE 925-850 HPA WIND FIELD WILL
SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS WE GO PAST 12Z WEDNESDAY...MOST
AREAS WILL SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN AT TIMES WITH SNOW IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AS MOST OF THE AREA STILL HAVE SEVERAL
INCHES TO A FEW FEET OF SNOW COVER STILL ON THE GROUND...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL STILL SUPPORT ICY CONDITIONS AS A COLD RAIN WILL FALL
FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS RAIN WILL
MAKE CONTACT WITH A FROZEN SURFACE AND A SURFACE WITH SEVERAL FEET
OF FROST DEPTH. AS WE HEAD TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AS WE APPROACH
00Z WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL END AS SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AS MODERATE CAA RETURNS TO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT FOLLOW DIURNAL TRENDS. LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH FOLLOWS MORE AMERICAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH 850 HPA
AND 925 HPA TEMPS BETWEEN 0C AND 4C WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
BRIEFLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADKS TO LOW AND MID 40S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID AND UPPER TEENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE SOME LOW POPS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK. OTHERWISE MOST OF THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
TRANQUIL. SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NY/CANADA BORDER DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND MAY
MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE INTERMITTENT AND SHOWERY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AT
LEAST 03Z/MON. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 03Z-06Z/MON INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY VFR RANGES AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BLOWING SNOW AND
OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS...ESP AT KALB AND KPSF.

SPEAKING OF WINDS...GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10 KT
THIS EVENING WILL TREND MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AT
LESS THAN 8 KT. THEN...AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES BEFORE DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT BY MID MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT
EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB AND KPSF...WHERE SOME GUSTS COULD
EVEN REACH INTO THE 35-38 KT RANGE AT TIMES MON AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SNOW
WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013-
     014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...JPV




000
FXUS61 KALY 020526
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1226 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS BRINGING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN
LATE TODAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

MAIN UPPER ENERGY EXITING BUT SOME WEAK CHANNELLED UPPER ENERGY
AND SOME ENHANCED CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM IN WESTERN PA AND WESTERN
NY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...INTERMITTENT IN THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NE CT...AND ALSO
INTERMITTENT IN THE LAKE GEORGE AREA. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR
LESS...AND IN MANY AREAS JUST A DUSTING. HOWEVER...KEEPING
HEADLINES IN PLACE UNITL ALL PRECIPITATION EXITS SINCE TRAVEL IS
STILL QUESTIONABLE IN MANY AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA.
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS.

ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

FOR TUESDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. A STREGTHENING STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS BY 6 PM ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. AT THIS POINT
WILL CALL FOR HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST 01/12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
A DOMAIN RANGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WESTWARD INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SHOWS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
START AS SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS LOWER TO MID LEVEL WEAK
WAA WILL BE ESTABLISHED OUT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL STRIP VORTICITY
WITH MAXIMUM ENHANCING PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM AND ALONG A
PROGRESSING SURFACE COLD FRONT. STRONGER WAA WILL BE PRESENT MOVING
INTO THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY WHERE A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE 925-850 HPA WIND FIELD WILL
SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS WE GO PAST 12Z WEDNESDAY...MOST
AREAS WILL SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN AT TIMES WITH SNOW IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AS MOST OF THE AREA STILL HAVE SEVERAL
INCHES TO A FEW FEET OF SNOW COVER STILL ON THE GROUND...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL STILL SUPPORT ICY CONDITIONS AS A COLD RAIN WILL FALL
FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS RAIN WILL
MAKE CONTACT WITH A FROZEN SURFACE AND A SURFACE WITH SEVERAL FEET
OF FROST DEPTH. AS WE HEAD TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AS WE APPROACH
00Z WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL END AS SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AS MODERATE CAA RETURNS TO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT FOLLOW DIURNAL TRENDS. LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH FOLLOWS MORE AMERICAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH 850 HPA
AND 925 HPA TEMPS BETWEEN 0C AND 4C WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
BRIEFLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADKS TO LOW AND MID 40S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID AND UPPER TEENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE SOME LOW POPS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK. OTHERWISE MOST OF THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
TRANQUIL. SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NY/CANADA BORDER DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND MAY
MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE INTERMITTENT AND SHOWERY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AT
LEAST 03Z/MON. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 03Z-06Z/MON INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY VFR RANGES AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BLOWING SNOW AND
OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS...ESP AT KALB AND KPSF.

SPEAKING OF WINDS...GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10 KT
THIS EVENING WILL TREND MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AT
LESS THAN 8 KT. THEN...AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES BEFORE DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT BY MID MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT
EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB AND KPSF...WHERE SOME GUSTS COULD
EVEN REACH INTO THE 35-38 KT RANGE AT TIMES MON AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SNOW
WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013-
     014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...JPV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 020523
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1223 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR
DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 1230
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR SHOWING BACK
EDGE OF SYNOPTIC DRIVEN SNOW FROM NEAR SARANAC LAKE TO THE
NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF TO NORTH AND WEST,
AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AND EAST. ORGANIZED SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST AS UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW EXITS THE
REGION. SNOW WILL TRANSITION OVERNIGHT TO OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN
SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND MOISTURE
REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST STILL LOOK GOOD, WITH SNOW CHARACTERIZED AS LIGHT AND
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES TRACKING NICELY WITH OBSERVED, AND NO CHANGES THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 00Z AND THE
12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDING AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR
REACHING THE BTV AREA. THAT WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESULTING IN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIXED PTYPES ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY
KEEPS THE SURFACE/925/850/700MB 0C LINES ALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THE TIME PERIOD RESULTING IN ALMOST ALL SNOW WHEREAS THE
GFS IS SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY IN ITS TRACK LEADING TO SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY TOWARDS THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM (LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY) AS THE
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE 1000-700MB LAYER RH DISSIPATES IN BOTH
MODELS AND THE PWATS DROP FROM 0.7" TO 0.25" BY 18Z. SO THE MORAL
OF THE STORY IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE WIDE SPREAD PRECIPITATION
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH BY 18-00Z. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL WARM THE ENTIRE REGION TO ABOVE 35F
GETTING CLOSE TO 40F BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY DROPPING
OFF DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY
TO ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY
TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW BUT
THATS ABOUT IT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO JUST BELOW
IN THE NOTORIOUS COLD SPOTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE AREA IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS SEEING
SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE GRADUALLY WARMING TREND TOWARDS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH TEMPS WARMING TO
AROUND FREEZING IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY
WINDS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ABOVE 1500 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND
SNOW SHOWERS. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ON MONDAY. LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR/MVFR AT BTV/PBG WITH DOWNSLOPING
WINDS AND DRY LOW LEVELS LIMITING COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
SNOW...ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE. MSS ALSO
LIKELY MAINLY MVFR ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACTS AT RUT/MPV/SLK WHERE IFR LIKELY
TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING AT MPV/SLK ON MONDAY. DUE TO EXPECTED
SCATTERED NATURE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY OUTSIDE OF
SLK/MPV...ANY TAF SITE MAY EXPERIENCE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
AS WELL. SOUTH WINDS 5-10 KNOTS (WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV)
TONIGHT TURN WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY
AGAIN WITH WIDESPREAD 20-30 KNOT GUSTS LIKELY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM SLIDES OFF TO SOUTHEAST.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NEILES/HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...MUCCILLI



000
FXUS61 KBTV 020523
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1223 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR
DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EST MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR 1230
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR SHOWING BACK
EDGE OF SYNOPTIC DRIVEN SNOW FROM NEAR SARANAC LAKE TO THE
NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF TO NORTH AND WEST,
AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AND EAST. ORGANIZED SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST AS UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW EXITS THE
REGION. SNOW WILL TRANSITION OVERNIGHT TO OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN
SNOW SHOWERS AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND MOISTURE
REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST STILL LOOK GOOD, WITH SNOW CHARACTERIZED AS LIGHT AND
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES TRACKING NICELY WITH OBSERVED, AND NO CHANGES THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 00Z AND THE
12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDING AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR
REACHING THE BTV AREA. THAT WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESULTING IN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIXED PTYPES ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY
KEEPS THE SURFACE/925/850/700MB 0C LINES ALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THE TIME PERIOD RESULTING IN ALMOST ALL SNOW WHEREAS THE
GFS IS SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY IN ITS TRACK LEADING TO SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY TOWARDS THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM (LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY) AS THE
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE 1000-700MB LAYER RH DISSIPATES IN BOTH
MODELS AND THE PWATS DROP FROM 0.7" TO 0.25" BY 18Z. SO THE MORAL
OF THE STORY IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE WIDE SPREAD PRECIPITATION
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH BY 18-00Z. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL WARM THE ENTIRE REGION TO ABOVE 35F
GETTING CLOSE TO 40F BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY DROPPING
OFF DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY
TO ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY
TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW BUT
THATS ABOUT IT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO JUST BELOW
IN THE NOTORIOUS COLD SPOTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE AREA IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS SEEING
SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE GRADUALLY WARMING TREND TOWARDS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH TEMPS WARMING TO
AROUND FREEZING IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY
WINDS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ABOVE 1500 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND
SNOW SHOWERS. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ON MONDAY. LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR/MVFR AT BTV/PBG WITH DOWNSLOPING
WINDS AND DRY LOW LEVELS LIMITING COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
SNOW...ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE. MSS ALSO
LIKELY MAINLY MVFR ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACTS AT RUT/MPV/SLK WHERE IFR LIKELY
TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING AT MPV/SLK ON MONDAY. DUE TO EXPECTED
SCATTERED NATURE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY OUTSIDE OF
SLK/MPV...ANY TAF SITE MAY EXPERIENCE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
AS WELL. SOUTH WINDS 5-10 KNOTS (WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV)
TONIGHT TURN WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY
AGAIN WITH WIDESPREAD 20-30 KNOT GUSTS LIKELY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM SLIDES OFF TO SOUTHEAST.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NEILES/HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KALY 020257
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
957 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

AS OF 955 PM EST...THE STEADIER SNOW IS BEGINNING TO BECOME MORE
PATCHY IN AREAL COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH A FEW MORE BURSTS OF MODERATE
SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT.

THUS FAR...SNOWFALL AMTS HAVE MAINLY BEEN IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE
ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT...GREATEST ACROSS
FAR SE LITCHFIELD CO...AND GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES ELSEWHERE...WITH
MANY AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 IN NY GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

BASED ON CURRENT UPSTREAM RADARS AND OVERALL SATELLITE TRENDS...IT
APPEARS THAT THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
FROM W TO E THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS NEAR AND
SOUTH OF I-90 HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
SNOWFALL THROUGH MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SLIGHTLY
HIGHER ADDITIONAL AMTS ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD CO. FURTHER NORTH...IT APPEARS THAT ONLY A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH ADDITIONAL ACCUM ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

SHOULD THE DECREASING PRECIP TREND ON REGIONAL RADARS
CONTINUE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE DROPPED WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.

OTHERWISE...SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK AS THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THESE SNOW SHOWERS AND ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMS
APPEARS TO BE THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND POSSIBLY WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY...OR PERHAPS FALL A FEW
DEGREES OVERNIGHT...MAINLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME TEMPS ACTUALLY RISE A BIT
OVERNIGHT...ONCE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF AND BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES
FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA.
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS.

ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

FOR TUESDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. A STREGTHENING STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS BY 6 PM ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. AT THIS POINT
WILL CALL FOR HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST 01/12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
A DOMAIN RANGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WESTWARD INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SHOWS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
START AS SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS LOWER TO MID LEVEL WEAK
WAA WILL BE ESTABLISHED OUT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL STRIP VORTICITY
WITH MAXIMUM ENHANCING PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM AND ALONG A
PROGRESSING SURFACE COLD FRONT. STRONGER WAA WILL BE PRESENT MOVING
INTO THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY WHERE A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE 925-850 HPA WIND FIELD WILL
SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS WE GO PAST 12Z WEDNESDAY...MOST
AREAS WILL SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN AT TIMES WITH SNOW IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AS MOST OF THE AREA STILL HAVE SEVERAL
INCHES TO A FEW FEET OF SNOW COVER STILL ON THE GROUND...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL STILL SUPPORT ICY CONDITIONS AS A COLD RAIN WILL FALL
FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS RAIN WILL
MAKE CONTACT WITH A FROZEN SURFACE AND A SURFACE WITH SEVERAL FEET
OF FROST DEPTH. AS WE HEAD TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AS WE APPROACH
00Z WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL END AS SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AS MODERATE CAA RETURNS TO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT FOLLOW DIURNAL TRENDS. LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH FOLLOWS MORE AMERICAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH 850 HPA
AND 925 HPA TEMPS BETWEEN 0C AND 4C WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
BRIEFLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADKS TO LOW AND MID 40S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID AND UPPER TEENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE SOME LOW POPS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK. OTHERWISE MOST OF THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
TRANQUIL. SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NY/CANADA BORDER DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND MAY
MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE INTERMITTENT AND SHOWERY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AT
LEAST 03Z/MON. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 03Z-06Z/MON INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY VFR RANGES AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BLOWING SNOW AND
OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS...ESP AT KALB AND KPSF.

SPEAKING OF WINDS...GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10 KT
THIS EVENING WILL TREND MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AT
LESS THAN 8 KT. THEN...AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES BEFORE DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT BY MID MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT
EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB AND KPSF...WHERE SOME GUSTS COULD
EVEN REACH INTO THE 35-38 KT RANGE AT TIMES MON AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SNOW
WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 020257
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
957 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

AS OF 955 PM EST...THE STEADIER SNOW IS BEGINNING TO BECOME MORE
PATCHY IN AREAL COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH A FEW MORE BURSTS OF MODERATE
SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT.

THUS FAR...SNOWFALL AMTS HAVE MAINLY BEEN IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE
ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT...GREATEST ACROSS
FAR SE LITCHFIELD CO...AND GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES ELSEWHERE...WITH
MANY AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 IN NY GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

BASED ON CURRENT UPSTREAM RADARS AND OVERALL SATELLITE TRENDS...IT
APPEARS THAT THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
FROM W TO E THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS NEAR AND
SOUTH OF I-90 HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
SNOWFALL THROUGH MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SLIGHTLY
HIGHER ADDITIONAL AMTS ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LITCHFIELD CO. FURTHER NORTH...IT APPEARS THAT ONLY A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH ADDITIONAL ACCUM ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

SHOULD THE DECREASING PRECIP TREND ON REGIONAL RADARS
CONTINUE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE DROPPED WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.

OTHERWISE...SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK AS THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THESE SNOW SHOWERS AND ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMS
APPEARS TO BE THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND POSSIBLY WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY...OR PERHAPS FALL A FEW
DEGREES OVERNIGHT...MAINLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME TEMPS ACTUALLY RISE A BIT
OVERNIGHT...ONCE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF AND BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES
FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA.
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS.

ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

FOR TUESDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. A STREGTHENING STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS BY 6 PM ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. AT THIS POINT
WILL CALL FOR HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST 01/12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
A DOMAIN RANGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WESTWARD INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SHOWS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
START AS SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS LOWER TO MID LEVEL WEAK
WAA WILL BE ESTABLISHED OUT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL STRIP VORTICITY
WITH MAXIMUM ENHANCING PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM AND ALONG A
PROGRESSING SURFACE COLD FRONT. STRONGER WAA WILL BE PRESENT MOVING
INTO THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY WHERE A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE 925-850 HPA WIND FIELD WILL
SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS WE GO PAST 12Z WEDNESDAY...MOST
AREAS WILL SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN AT TIMES WITH SNOW IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AS MOST OF THE AREA STILL HAVE SEVERAL
INCHES TO A FEW FEET OF SNOW COVER STILL ON THE GROUND...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL STILL SUPPORT ICY CONDITIONS AS A COLD RAIN WILL FALL
FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS RAIN WILL
MAKE CONTACT WITH A FROZEN SURFACE AND A SURFACE WITH SEVERAL FEET
OF FROST DEPTH. AS WE HEAD TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AS WE APPROACH
00Z WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL END AS SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AS MODERATE CAA RETURNS TO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT FOLLOW DIURNAL TRENDS. LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH FOLLOWS MORE AMERICAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH 850 HPA
AND 925 HPA TEMPS BETWEEN 0C AND 4C WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
BRIEFLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADKS TO LOW AND MID 40S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID AND UPPER TEENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE SOME LOW POPS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK. OTHERWISE MOST OF THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
TRANQUIL. SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NY/CANADA BORDER DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND MAY
MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE INTERMITTENT AND SHOWERY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AT
LEAST 03Z/MON. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 03Z-06Z/MON INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY VFR RANGES AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BLOWING SNOW AND
OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS...ESP AT KALB AND KPSF.

SPEAKING OF WINDS...GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10 KT
THIS EVENING WILL TREND MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AT
LESS THAN 8 KT. THEN...AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES BEFORE DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT BY MID MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT
EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB AND KPSF...WHERE SOME GUSTS COULD
EVEN REACH INTO THE 35-38 KT RANGE AT TIMES MON AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SNOW
WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBTV 020237
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
937 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR
DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 936 PM EST SUNDAY...UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS. RADAR SHOWING BACK EDGE OF SYNOPTIC DRIVEN SNOW FROM
NEAR SARANAC LAKE TO THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SNOW HAS
TAPERED OFF TO NORTH AND WEST, AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AND EAST.
ORGANIZED SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS UPPER
TROUGH EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW EXITS THE REGION. SNOW WILL
TRANSITION OVERNIGHT TO OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS AS
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL
LOOK GOOD, WITH SNOW CHARACTERIZED AS LIGHT AND ACCUMULATIONS OF
ONE TO TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT. FORECAST TEMPERATURES TRACKING NICELY
WITH OBSERVED, AND NO CHANGES THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 00Z AND THE
12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDING AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR
REACHING THE BTV AREA. THAT WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESULTING IN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIXED PTYPES ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY
KEEPS THE SURFACE/925/850/700MB 0C LINES ALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THE TIME PERIOD RESULTING IN ALMOST ALL SNOW WHEREAS THE
GFS IS SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY IN ITS TRACK LEADING TO SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY TOWARDS THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM (LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY) AS THE
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE 1000-700MB LAYER RH DISSIPATES IN BOTH
MODELS AND THE PWATS DROP FROM 0.7" TO 0.25" BY 18Z. SO THE MORAL
OF THE STORY IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE WIDE SPREAD PRECIPITATION
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH BY 18-00Z. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL WARM THE ENTIRE REGION TO ABOVE 35F
GETTING CLOSE TO 40F BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY DROPPING
OFF DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY
TO ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY
TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW BUT
THATS ABOUT IT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO JUST BELOW
IN THE NOTORIOUS COLD SPOTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE AREA IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS SEEING
SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE GRADUALLY WARMING TREND TOWARDS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND
FREEZING IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1500 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND
SNOW SHOWERS. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ON MONDAY. LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR/MVFR AT BTV/PBG WITH DOWNSLOPING
WINDS AND DRY LOW LEVELS LIMITING COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
SNOW...ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE. MSS ALSO
LIKELY MAINLY MVFR ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACTS AT RUT/MPV/SLK WHERE IFR LIKELY
TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING AT MPV/SLK ON MONDAY. DUE TO EXPECTED SCATTERED
NATURE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY OUTSIDE OF SLK/MPV...ANY TAF SITE
MAY EXPERIENCE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR AS WELL. SOUTH WINDS
5-10 KNOTS (WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV) TONIGHT TURN
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY AGAIN WITH
WIDESPREAD 20-30 KNOT GUSTS LIKELY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM SLIDES OFF TO SOUTHEAST.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...MUCCILLI



000
FXUS61 KBTV 020237
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
937 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR
DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 936 PM EST SUNDAY...UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS. RADAR SHOWING BACK EDGE OF SYNOPTIC DRIVEN SNOW FROM
NEAR SARANAC LAKE TO THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SNOW HAS
TAPERED OFF TO NORTH AND WEST, AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AND EAST.
ORGANIZED SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS UPPER
TROUGH EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW EXITS THE REGION. SNOW WILL
TRANSITION OVERNIGHT TO OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS AS
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL
LOOK GOOD, WITH SNOW CHARACTERIZED AS LIGHT AND ACCUMULATIONS OF
ONE TO TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT. FORECAST TEMPERATURES TRACKING NICELY
WITH OBSERVED, AND NO CHANGES THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 00Z AND THE
12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDING AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR
REACHING THE BTV AREA. THAT WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESULTING IN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIXED PTYPES ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY
KEEPS THE SURFACE/925/850/700MB 0C LINES ALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THE TIME PERIOD RESULTING IN ALMOST ALL SNOW WHEREAS THE
GFS IS SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY IN ITS TRACK LEADING TO SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY TOWARDS THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM (LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY) AS THE
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE 1000-700MB LAYER RH DISSIPATES IN BOTH
MODELS AND THE PWATS DROP FROM 0.7" TO 0.25" BY 18Z. SO THE MORAL
OF THE STORY IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE WIDE SPREAD PRECIPITATION
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH BY 18-00Z. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL WARM THE ENTIRE REGION TO ABOVE 35F
GETTING CLOSE TO 40F BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY DROPPING
OFF DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY
TO ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY
TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW BUT
THATS ABOUT IT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO JUST BELOW
IN THE NOTORIOUS COLD SPOTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE AREA IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS SEEING
SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE GRADUALLY WARMING TREND TOWARDS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND
FREEZING IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1500 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND
SNOW SHOWERS. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ON MONDAY. LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR/MVFR AT BTV/PBG WITH DOWNSLOPING
WINDS AND DRY LOW LEVELS LIMITING COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
SNOW...ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE. MSS ALSO
LIKELY MAINLY MVFR ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACTS AT RUT/MPV/SLK WHERE IFR LIKELY
TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING AT MPV/SLK ON MONDAY. DUE TO EXPECTED SCATTERED
NATURE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY OUTSIDE OF SLK/MPV...ANY TAF SITE
MAY EXPERIENCE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR AS WELL. SOUTH WINDS
5-10 KNOTS (WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV) TONIGHT TURN
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY AGAIN WITH
WIDESPREAD 20-30 KNOT GUSTS LIKELY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM SLIDES OFF TO SOUTHEAST.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...MUCCILLI



000
FXUS61 KBTV 020237
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
937 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR
DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 936 PM EST SUNDAY...UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS. RADAR SHOWING BACK EDGE OF SYNOPTIC DRIVEN SNOW FROM
NEAR SARANAC LAKE TO THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SNOW HAS
TAPERED OFF TO NORTH AND WEST, AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AND EAST.
ORGANIZED SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS UPPER
TROUGH EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW EXITS THE REGION. SNOW WILL
TRANSITION OVERNIGHT TO OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS AS
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL
LOOK GOOD, WITH SNOW CHARACTERIZED AS LIGHT AND ACCUMULATIONS OF
ONE TO TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT. FORECAST TEMPERATURES TRACKING NICELY
WITH OBSERVED, AND NO CHANGES THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 00Z AND THE
12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDING AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR
REACHING THE BTV AREA. THAT WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESULTING IN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIXED PTYPES ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY
KEEPS THE SURFACE/925/850/700MB 0C LINES ALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THE TIME PERIOD RESULTING IN ALMOST ALL SNOW WHEREAS THE
GFS IS SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY IN ITS TRACK LEADING TO SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY TOWARDS THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM (LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY) AS THE
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE 1000-700MB LAYER RH DISSIPATES IN BOTH
MODELS AND THE PWATS DROP FROM 0.7" TO 0.25" BY 18Z. SO THE MORAL
OF THE STORY IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE WIDE SPREAD PRECIPITATION
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH BY 18-00Z. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL WARM THE ENTIRE REGION TO ABOVE 35F
GETTING CLOSE TO 40F BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY DROPPING
OFF DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY
TO ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY
TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW BUT
THATS ABOUT IT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO JUST BELOW
IN THE NOTORIOUS COLD SPOTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE AREA IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS SEEING
SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE GRADUALLY WARMING TREND TOWARDS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND
FREEZING IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1500 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND
SNOW SHOWERS. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ON MONDAY. LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR/MVFR AT BTV/PBG WITH DOWNSLOPING
WINDS AND DRY LOW LEVELS LIMITING COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
SNOW...ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE. MSS ALSO
LIKELY MAINLY MVFR ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACTS AT RUT/MPV/SLK WHERE IFR LIKELY
TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING AT MPV/SLK ON MONDAY. DUE TO EXPECTED SCATTERED
NATURE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY OUTSIDE OF SLK/MPV...ANY TAF SITE
MAY EXPERIENCE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR AS WELL. SOUTH WINDS
5-10 KNOTS (WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV) TONIGHT TURN
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY AGAIN WITH
WIDESPREAD 20-30 KNOT GUSTS LIKELY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM SLIDES OFF TO SOUTHEAST.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...MUCCILLI



000
FXUS61 KBTV 020237
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
937 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR
DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 936 PM EST SUNDAY...UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS. RADAR SHOWING BACK EDGE OF SYNOPTIC DRIVEN SNOW FROM
NEAR SARANAC LAKE TO THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SNOW HAS
TAPERED OFF TO NORTH AND WEST, AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AND EAST.
ORGANIZED SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS UPPER
TROUGH EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW EXITS THE REGION. SNOW WILL
TRANSITION OVERNIGHT TO OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS AS
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES HOLD AND MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL
LOOK GOOD, WITH SNOW CHARACTERIZED AS LIGHT AND ACCUMULATIONS OF
ONE TO TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT. FORECAST TEMPERATURES TRACKING NICELY
WITH OBSERVED, AND NO CHANGES THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 00Z AND THE
12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDING AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR
REACHING THE BTV AREA. THAT WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESULTING IN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIXED PTYPES ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY
KEEPS THE SURFACE/925/850/700MB 0C LINES ALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THE TIME PERIOD RESULTING IN ALMOST ALL SNOW WHEREAS THE
GFS IS SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY IN ITS TRACK LEADING TO SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY TOWARDS THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM (LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY) AS THE
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE 1000-700MB LAYER RH DISSIPATES IN BOTH
MODELS AND THE PWATS DROP FROM 0.7" TO 0.25" BY 18Z. SO THE MORAL
OF THE STORY IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE WIDE SPREAD PRECIPITATION
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH BY 18-00Z. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL WARM THE ENTIRE REGION TO ABOVE 35F
GETTING CLOSE TO 40F BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY DROPPING
OFF DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY
TO ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY
TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW BUT
THATS ABOUT IT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO JUST BELOW
IN THE NOTORIOUS COLD SPOTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE AREA IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS SEEING
SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE GRADUALLY WARMING TREND TOWARDS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND
FREEZING IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1500 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND
SNOW SHOWERS. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ON MONDAY. LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR/MVFR AT BTV/PBG WITH DOWNSLOPING
WINDS AND DRY LOW LEVELS LIMITING COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
SNOW...ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE. MSS ALSO
LIKELY MAINLY MVFR ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACTS AT RUT/MPV/SLK WHERE IFR LIKELY
TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING AT MPV/SLK ON MONDAY. DUE TO EXPECTED SCATTERED
NATURE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY OUTSIDE OF SLK/MPV...ANY TAF SITE
MAY EXPERIENCE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR AS WELL. SOUTH WINDS
5-10 KNOTS (WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV) TONIGHT TURN
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY AGAIN WITH
WIDESPREAD 20-30 KNOT GUSTS LIKELY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM SLIDES OFF TO SOUTHEAST.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...MUCCILLI



000
FXUS61 KALY 020003
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
703 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

AS OF 7 PM EST...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...WITH THE LIGHTEST/PATCHY SNOWFALL MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND STEADIEST SNOW WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE
INTENSITY MAINLY FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 IN NY
AND MA.

TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING THE
SNOWFALL WITH ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A
SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WITH WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
SHOULD ENHANCE THE SNOWFALL SOME. STILL EXPECTING 1 TO 3 INCHES
NORTH AND 3 TO 6 INCHES SOUTH. WILL LEAVE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IN TACT AS IS. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES IN NY...AND
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
WILL CONTINUE TO USE A 13 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO...ALTHOUGH
THIS COULD VARY ACROSS THE AREA WITH A LOWER RATIO ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS WHERE...DESPITE COLDER TEMPS...THE BEST LIFT AND DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONES ARE NOT QUITE OVERLAPPING...RESULTING IN SNOWFALL
CONSISTENCY WHICH IS OF SMALL SNOWFLAKES RATHER THAN LARGER
DENDRITES/AGGREGATES.

THE STEADY SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM W TO E TOWARD OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA
THROUGH DAYBREAK. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA.
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS.

ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

FOR TUESDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. A STREGTHENING STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS BY 6 PM ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. AT THIS POINT
WILL CALL FOR HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST 01/12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
A DOMAIN RANGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WESTWARD INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SHOWS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
START AS SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS LOWER TO MID LEVEL WEAK
WAA WILL BE ESTABLISHED OUT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL STRIP VORTICITY
WITH MAXIMUM ENHANCING PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM AND ALONG A
PROGRESSING SURFACE COLD FRONT. STRONGER WAA WILL BE PRESENT MOVING
INTO THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY WHERE A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE 925-850 HPA WIND FIELD WILL
SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS WE GO PAST 12Z WEDNESDAY...MOST
AREAS WILL SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN AT TIMES WITH SNOW IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AS MOST OF THE AREA STILL HAVE SEVERAL
INCHES TO A FEW FEET OF SNOW COVER STILL ON THE GROUND...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL STILL SUPPORT ICY CONDITIONS AS A COLD RAIN WILL FALL
FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS RAIN WILL
MAKE CONTACT WITH A FROZEN SURFACE AND A SURFACE WITH SEVERAL FEET
OF FROST DEPTH. AS WE HEAD TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AS WE APPROACH
00Z WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL END AS SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AS MODERATE CAA RETURNS TO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT FOLLOW DIURNAL TRENDS. LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH FOLLOWS MORE AMERICAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH 850 HPA
AND 925 HPA TEMPS BETWEEN 0C AND 4C WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
BRIEFLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADKS TO LOW AND MID 40S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID AND UPPER TEENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE SOME LOW POPS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK. OTHERWISE MOST OF THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
TRANQUIL. SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NY/CANADA BORDER DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND MAY
MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE INTERMITTENT AND SHOWERY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AT
LEAST 03Z/MON. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 03Z-06Z/MON INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY VFR RANGES AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BLOWING SNOW AND
OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS...ESP AT KALB AND KPSF.

SPEAKING OF WINDS...GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10 KT
THIS EVENING WILL TREND MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AT
LESS THAN 8 KT. THEN...AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES BEFORE DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT BY MID MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT
EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB AND KPSF...WHERE SOME GUSTS COULD
EVEN REACH INTO THE 35-38 KT RANGE AT TIMES MON AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SNOW
WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 020003
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
703 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

AS OF 7 PM EST...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...WITH THE LIGHTEST/PATCHY SNOWFALL MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND STEADIEST SNOW WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE
INTENSITY MAINLY FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 IN NY
AND MA.

TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING THE
SNOWFALL WITH ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A
SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WITH WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
SHOULD ENHANCE THE SNOWFALL SOME. STILL EXPECTING 1 TO 3 INCHES
NORTH AND 3 TO 6 INCHES SOUTH. WILL LEAVE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IN TACT AS IS. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES IN NY...AND
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
WILL CONTINUE TO USE A 13 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO...ALTHOUGH
THIS COULD VARY ACROSS THE AREA WITH A LOWER RATIO ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS WHERE...DESPITE COLDER TEMPS...THE BEST LIFT AND DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONES ARE NOT QUITE OVERLAPPING...RESULTING IN SNOWFALL
CONSISTENCY WHICH IS OF SMALL SNOWFLAKES RATHER THAN LARGER
DENDRITES/AGGREGATES.

THE STEADY SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM W TO E TOWARD OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA
THROUGH DAYBREAK. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA.
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS.

ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

FOR TUESDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. A STREGTHENING STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS BY 6 PM ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. AT THIS POINT
WILL CALL FOR HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST 01/12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
A DOMAIN RANGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WESTWARD INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SHOWS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
START AS SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS LOWER TO MID LEVEL WEAK
WAA WILL BE ESTABLISHED OUT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL STRIP VORTICITY
WITH MAXIMUM ENHANCING PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM AND ALONG A
PROGRESSING SURFACE COLD FRONT. STRONGER WAA WILL BE PRESENT MOVING
INTO THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY WHERE A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE 925-850 HPA WIND FIELD WILL
SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS WE GO PAST 12Z WEDNESDAY...MOST
AREAS WILL SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN AT TIMES WITH SNOW IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AS MOST OF THE AREA STILL HAVE SEVERAL
INCHES TO A FEW FEET OF SNOW COVER STILL ON THE GROUND...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL STILL SUPPORT ICY CONDITIONS AS A COLD RAIN WILL FALL
FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS RAIN WILL
MAKE CONTACT WITH A FROZEN SURFACE AND A SURFACE WITH SEVERAL FEET
OF FROST DEPTH. AS WE HEAD TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AS WE APPROACH
00Z WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL END AS SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AS MODERATE CAA RETURNS TO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT FOLLOW DIURNAL TRENDS. LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH FOLLOWS MORE AMERICAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH 850 HPA
AND 925 HPA TEMPS BETWEEN 0C AND 4C WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
BRIEFLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADKS TO LOW AND MID 40S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID AND UPPER TEENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE SOME LOW POPS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK. OTHERWISE MOST OF THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
TRANQUIL. SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NY/CANADA BORDER DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND MAY
MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE INTERMITTENT AND SHOWERY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AT
LEAST 03Z/MON. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 03Z-06Z/MON INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY VFR RANGES AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BLOWING SNOW AND
OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS...ESP AT KALB AND KPSF.

SPEAKING OF WINDS...GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10 KT
THIS EVENING WILL TREND MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AT
LESS THAN 8 KT. THEN...AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES BEFORE DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT BY MID MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT
EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB AND KPSF...WHERE SOME GUSTS COULD
EVEN REACH INTO THE 35-38 KT RANGE AT TIMES MON AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SNOW
WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 020003
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
703 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

AS OF 7 PM EST...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...WITH THE LIGHTEST/PATCHY SNOWFALL MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND STEADIEST SNOW WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE
INTENSITY MAINLY FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 IN NY
AND MA.

TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING THE
SNOWFALL WITH ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A
SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WITH WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
SHOULD ENHANCE THE SNOWFALL SOME. STILL EXPECTING 1 TO 3 INCHES
NORTH AND 3 TO 6 INCHES SOUTH. WILL LEAVE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IN TACT AS IS. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES IN NY...AND
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
WILL CONTINUE TO USE A 13 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO...ALTHOUGH
THIS COULD VARY ACROSS THE AREA WITH A LOWER RATIO ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS WHERE...DESPITE COLDER TEMPS...THE BEST LIFT AND DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONES ARE NOT QUITE OVERLAPPING...RESULTING IN SNOWFALL
CONSISTENCY WHICH IS OF SMALL SNOWFLAKES RATHER THAN LARGER
DENDRITES/AGGREGATES.

THE STEADY SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM W TO E TOWARD OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA
THROUGH DAYBREAK. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA.
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS.

ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

FOR TUESDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. A STREGTHENING STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS BY 6 PM ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. AT THIS POINT
WILL CALL FOR HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST 01/12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
A DOMAIN RANGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WESTWARD INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SHOWS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
START AS SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS LOWER TO MID LEVEL WEAK
WAA WILL BE ESTABLISHED OUT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL STRIP VORTICITY
WITH MAXIMUM ENHANCING PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM AND ALONG A
PROGRESSING SURFACE COLD FRONT. STRONGER WAA WILL BE PRESENT MOVING
INTO THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY WHERE A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE 925-850 HPA WIND FIELD WILL
SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS WE GO PAST 12Z WEDNESDAY...MOST
AREAS WILL SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN AT TIMES WITH SNOW IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AS MOST OF THE AREA STILL HAVE SEVERAL
INCHES TO A FEW FEET OF SNOW COVER STILL ON THE GROUND...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL STILL SUPPORT ICY CONDITIONS AS A COLD RAIN WILL FALL
FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS RAIN WILL
MAKE CONTACT WITH A FROZEN SURFACE AND A SURFACE WITH SEVERAL FEET
OF FROST DEPTH. AS WE HEAD TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AS WE APPROACH
00Z WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL END AS SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AS MODERATE CAA RETURNS TO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT FOLLOW DIURNAL TRENDS. LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH FOLLOWS MORE AMERICAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH 850 HPA
AND 925 HPA TEMPS BETWEEN 0C AND 4C WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
BRIEFLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADKS TO LOW AND MID 40S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID AND UPPER TEENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE SOME LOW POPS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK. OTHERWISE MOST OF THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
TRANQUIL. SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NY/CANADA BORDER DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND MAY
MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE INTERMITTENT AND SHOWERY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AT
LEAST 03Z/MON. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 03Z-06Z/MON INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY VFR RANGES AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BLOWING SNOW AND
OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS...ESP AT KALB AND KPSF.

SPEAKING OF WINDS...GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10 KT
THIS EVENING WILL TREND MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AT
LESS THAN 8 KT. THEN...AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES BEFORE DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT BY MID MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT
EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB AND KPSF...WHERE SOME GUSTS COULD
EVEN REACH INTO THE 35-38 KT RANGE AT TIMES MON AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SNOW
WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 020003
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
703 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

AS OF 7 PM EST...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...WITH THE LIGHTEST/PATCHY SNOWFALL MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND STEADIEST SNOW WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE
INTENSITY MAINLY FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 IN NY
AND MA.

TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING THE
SNOWFALL WITH ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A
SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WITH WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
SHOULD ENHANCE THE SNOWFALL SOME. STILL EXPECTING 1 TO 3 INCHES
NORTH AND 3 TO 6 INCHES SOUTH. WILL LEAVE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IN TACT AS IS. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES IN NY...AND
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
WILL CONTINUE TO USE A 13 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO...ALTHOUGH
THIS COULD VARY ACROSS THE AREA WITH A LOWER RATIO ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS WHERE...DESPITE COLDER TEMPS...THE BEST LIFT AND DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONES ARE NOT QUITE OVERLAPPING...RESULTING IN SNOWFALL
CONSISTENCY WHICH IS OF SMALL SNOWFLAKES RATHER THAN LARGER
DENDRITES/AGGREGATES.

THE STEADY SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM W TO E TOWARD OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA
THROUGH DAYBREAK. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA.
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS.

ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

FOR TUESDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. A STREGTHENING STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS BY 6 PM ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. AT THIS POINT
WILL CALL FOR HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST 01/12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
A DOMAIN RANGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WESTWARD INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SHOWS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
START AS SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS LOWER TO MID LEVEL WEAK
WAA WILL BE ESTABLISHED OUT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL STRIP VORTICITY
WITH MAXIMUM ENHANCING PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM AND ALONG A
PROGRESSING SURFACE COLD FRONT. STRONGER WAA WILL BE PRESENT MOVING
INTO THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY WHERE A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE 925-850 HPA WIND FIELD WILL
SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS WE GO PAST 12Z WEDNESDAY...MOST
AREAS WILL SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN AT TIMES WITH SNOW IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AS MOST OF THE AREA STILL HAVE SEVERAL
INCHES TO A FEW FEET OF SNOW COVER STILL ON THE GROUND...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL STILL SUPPORT ICY CONDITIONS AS A COLD RAIN WILL FALL
FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS RAIN WILL
MAKE CONTACT WITH A FROZEN SURFACE AND A SURFACE WITH SEVERAL FEET
OF FROST DEPTH. AS WE HEAD TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AS WE APPROACH
00Z WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL END AS SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AS MODERATE CAA RETURNS TO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT FOLLOW DIURNAL TRENDS. LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH FOLLOWS MORE AMERICAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH 850 HPA
AND 925 HPA TEMPS BETWEEN 0C AND 4C WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
BRIEFLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADKS TO LOW AND MID 40S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID AND UPPER TEENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE SOME LOW POPS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK. OTHERWISE MOST OF THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
TRANQUIL. SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NY/CANADA BORDER DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND MAY
MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE INTERMITTENT AND SHOWERY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AT
LEAST 03Z/MON. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 03Z-06Z/MON INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY VFR RANGES AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BLOWING SNOW AND
OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS...ESP AT KALB AND KPSF.

SPEAKING OF WINDS...GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10 KT
THIS EVENING WILL TREND MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AT
LESS THAN 8 KT. THEN...AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES BEFORE DAYBREAK
MONDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT BY MID MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT
EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KALB AND KPSF...WHERE SOME GUSTS COULD
EVEN REACH INTO THE 35-38 KT RANGE AT TIMES MON AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SNOW
WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBTV 012332
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
632 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND
POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 549 PM EST SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TO BLEND
IN OBSERVATIONS OVER PAST COUPLE HOURS. FORECAST TRACKING WELL
WITH ONLY MINOR DISCREPANCIES IN HOURLY DEWPOINTS. LIGHT SNOW
FALLING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW KEEPING IT AT BAY. PREVIOUS
FORECAST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS STILL APPROPRIATE WITH MAIN MOISTURE
IN PLUME ACROSS PA/SOUTHERN NY/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS HAVE JUST NOT BEEN FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. PLUME OF DEEPER
MOISTURE/SNOW HAS BEEN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...BUT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS KEPT THIS MOISTURE OUT OF
THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE TO ALSO
LIMIT THE SNOW POTENTIAL. THIS WILL ALL CHANGE AS THE EVENING
WEARS ON AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE UP
ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BOTTOM LINE IS WE ARE LOOKING AT A
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 00Z AND THE
12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDING AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR
REACHING THE BTV AREA. THAT WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESULTING IN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIXED PTYPES ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY
KEEPS THE SURFACE/925/850/700MB 0C LINES ALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THE TIME PERIOD RESULTING IN ALMOST ALL SNOW WHEREAS THE
GFS IS SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY IN ITS TRACK LEADING TO SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY TOWARDS THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM (LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY) AS THE
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE 1000-700MB LAYER RH DISSIPATES IN BOTH
MODELS AND THE PWATS DROP FROM 0.7" TO 0.25" BY 18Z. SO THE MORAL
OF THE STORY IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE WIDE SPREAD PRECIPITATION
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH BY 18-00Z. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL WARM THE ENTIRE REGION TO ABOVE 35F
GETTING CLOSE TO 40F BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY DROPPING
OFF DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY
TO ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY
TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW BUT
THATS ABOUT IT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO JUST BELOW
IN THE NOTORIOUS COLD SPOTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE AREA IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS SEEING
SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE GRADUALLY WARMING TREND TOWARDS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND
FREEZING IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1500 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND
SNOW SHOWERS. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ON MONDAY. LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR/MVFR AT BTV/PBG WITH DOWNSLOPING
WINDS AND DRY LOW LEVELS LIMITING COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
SNOW...ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE. MSS ALSO
LIKELY MAINLY MVFR ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACTS AT RUT/MPV/SLK WHERE IFR LIKELY
TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING AT MPV/SLK ON MONDAY. DUE TO EXPECTED SCATTERED
NATURE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY OUTSIDE OF SLK/MPV...ANY TAF SITE
MAY EXPERIENCE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR AS WELL. SOUTH WINDS
5-10 KNOTS (WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV) TONIGHT TURN
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY AGAIN WITH
WIDESPREAD 20-30 KNOT GUSTS LIKELY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM SLIDES OFF TO SOUTHEAST.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 012332
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
632 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND
POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 549 PM EST SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TO BLEND
IN OBSERVATIONS OVER PAST COUPLE HOURS. FORECAST TRACKING WELL
WITH ONLY MINOR DISCREPANCIES IN HOURLY DEWPOINTS. LIGHT SNOW
FALLING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW KEEPING IT AT BAY. PREVIOUS
FORECAST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS STILL APPROPRIATE WITH MAIN MOISTURE
IN PLUME ACROSS PA/SOUTHERN NY/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS HAVE JUST NOT BEEN FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. PLUME OF DEEPER
MOISTURE/SNOW HAS BEEN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...BUT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS KEPT THIS MOISTURE OUT OF
THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE TO ALSO
LIMIT THE SNOW POTENTIAL. THIS WILL ALL CHANGE AS THE EVENING
WEARS ON AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE UP
ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BOTTOM LINE IS WE ARE LOOKING AT A
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 00Z AND THE
12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDING AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR
REACHING THE BTV AREA. THAT WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESULTING IN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIXED PTYPES ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY
KEEPS THE SURFACE/925/850/700MB 0C LINES ALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THE TIME PERIOD RESULTING IN ALMOST ALL SNOW WHEREAS THE
GFS IS SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY IN ITS TRACK LEADING TO SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY TOWARDS THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM (LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY) AS THE
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE 1000-700MB LAYER RH DISSIPATES IN BOTH
MODELS AND THE PWATS DROP FROM 0.7" TO 0.25" BY 18Z. SO THE MORAL
OF THE STORY IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE WIDE SPREAD PRECIPITATION
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH BY 18-00Z. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL WARM THE ENTIRE REGION TO ABOVE 35F
GETTING CLOSE TO 40F BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY DROPPING
OFF DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY
TO ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY
TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW BUT
THATS ABOUT IT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO JUST BELOW
IN THE NOTORIOUS COLD SPOTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE AREA IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS SEEING
SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE GRADUALLY WARMING TREND TOWARDS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND
FREEZING IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1500 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND
SNOW SHOWERS. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ON MONDAY. LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR/MVFR AT BTV/PBG WITH DOWNSLOPING
WINDS AND DRY LOW LEVELS LIMITING COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
SNOW...ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE. MSS ALSO
LIKELY MAINLY MVFR ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACTS AT RUT/MPV/SLK WHERE IFR LIKELY
TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING AT MPV/SLK ON MONDAY. DUE TO EXPECTED SCATTERED
NATURE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY OUTSIDE OF SLK/MPV...ANY TAF SITE
MAY EXPERIENCE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR AS WELL. SOUTH WINDS
5-10 KNOTS (WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV) TONIGHT TURN
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY AGAIN WITH
WIDESPREAD 20-30 KNOT GUSTS LIKELY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM SLIDES OFF TO SOUTHEAST.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 012332
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
632 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND
POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 549 PM EST SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TO BLEND
IN OBSERVATIONS OVER PAST COUPLE HOURS. FORECAST TRACKING WELL
WITH ONLY MINOR DISCREPANCIES IN HOURLY DEWPOINTS. LIGHT SNOW
FALLING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW KEEPING IT AT BAY. PREVIOUS
FORECAST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS STILL APPROPRIATE WITH MAIN MOISTURE
IN PLUME ACROSS PA/SOUTHERN NY/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS HAVE JUST NOT BEEN FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. PLUME OF DEEPER
MOISTURE/SNOW HAS BEEN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...BUT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS KEPT THIS MOISTURE OUT OF
THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE TO ALSO
LIMIT THE SNOW POTENTIAL. THIS WILL ALL CHANGE AS THE EVENING
WEARS ON AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE UP
ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BOTTOM LINE IS WE ARE LOOKING AT A
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 00Z AND THE
12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDING AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR
REACHING THE BTV AREA. THAT WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESULTING IN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIXED PTYPES ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY
KEEPS THE SURFACE/925/850/700MB 0C LINES ALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THE TIME PERIOD RESULTING IN ALMOST ALL SNOW WHEREAS THE
GFS IS SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY IN ITS TRACK LEADING TO SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY TOWARDS THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM (LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY) AS THE
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE 1000-700MB LAYER RH DISSIPATES IN BOTH
MODELS AND THE PWATS DROP FROM 0.7" TO 0.25" BY 18Z. SO THE MORAL
OF THE STORY IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE WIDE SPREAD PRECIPITATION
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH BY 18-00Z. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL WARM THE ENTIRE REGION TO ABOVE 35F
GETTING CLOSE TO 40F BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY DROPPING
OFF DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY
TO ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY
TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW BUT
THATS ABOUT IT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO JUST BELOW
IN THE NOTORIOUS COLD SPOTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE AREA IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS SEEING
SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE GRADUALLY WARMING TREND TOWARDS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND
FREEZING IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1500 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND
SNOW SHOWERS. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ON MONDAY. LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR/MVFR AT BTV/PBG WITH DOWNSLOPING
WINDS AND DRY LOW LEVELS LIMITING COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
SNOW...ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE. MSS ALSO
LIKELY MAINLY MVFR ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACTS AT RUT/MPV/SLK WHERE IFR LIKELY
TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING AT MPV/SLK ON MONDAY. DUE TO EXPECTED SCATTERED
NATURE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY OUTSIDE OF SLK/MPV...ANY TAF SITE
MAY EXPERIENCE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR AS WELL. SOUTH WINDS
5-10 KNOTS (WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV) TONIGHT TURN
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY AGAIN WITH
WIDESPREAD 20-30 KNOT GUSTS LIKELY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM SLIDES OFF TO SOUTHEAST.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 012332
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
632 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND
POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 549 PM EST SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TO BLEND
IN OBSERVATIONS OVER PAST COUPLE HOURS. FORECAST TRACKING WELL
WITH ONLY MINOR DISCREPANCIES IN HOURLY DEWPOINTS. LIGHT SNOW
FALLING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW KEEPING IT AT BAY. PREVIOUS
FORECAST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS STILL APPROPRIATE WITH MAIN MOISTURE
IN PLUME ACROSS PA/SOUTHERN NY/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS HAVE JUST NOT BEEN FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. PLUME OF DEEPER
MOISTURE/SNOW HAS BEEN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...BUT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS KEPT THIS MOISTURE OUT OF
THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE TO ALSO
LIMIT THE SNOW POTENTIAL. THIS WILL ALL CHANGE AS THE EVENING
WEARS ON AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE UP
ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BOTTOM LINE IS WE ARE LOOKING AT A
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 00Z AND THE
12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDING AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR
REACHING THE BTV AREA. THAT WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESULTING IN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIXED PTYPES ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY
KEEPS THE SURFACE/925/850/700MB 0C LINES ALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THE TIME PERIOD RESULTING IN ALMOST ALL SNOW WHEREAS THE
GFS IS SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY IN ITS TRACK LEADING TO SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY TOWARDS THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM (LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY) AS THE
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE 1000-700MB LAYER RH DISSIPATES IN BOTH
MODELS AND THE PWATS DROP FROM 0.7" TO 0.25" BY 18Z. SO THE MORAL
OF THE STORY IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE WIDE SPREAD PRECIPITATION
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH BY 18-00Z. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL WARM THE ENTIRE REGION TO ABOVE 35F
GETTING CLOSE TO 40F BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY DROPPING
OFF DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY
TO ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY
TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW BUT
THATS ABOUT IT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO JUST BELOW
IN THE NOTORIOUS COLD SPOTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE AREA IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS SEEING
SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE GRADUALLY WARMING TREND TOWARDS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND
FREEZING IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1500 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND
SNOW SHOWERS. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ON MONDAY. LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR/MVFR AT BTV/PBG WITH DOWNSLOPING
WINDS AND DRY LOW LEVELS LIMITING COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
SNOW...ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE. MSS ALSO
LIKELY MAINLY MVFR ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACTS AT RUT/MPV/SLK WHERE IFR LIKELY
TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING AT MPV/SLK ON MONDAY. DUE TO EXPECTED SCATTERED
NATURE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY OUTSIDE OF SLK/MPV...ANY TAF SITE
MAY EXPERIENCE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR AS WELL. SOUTH WINDS
5-10 KNOTS (WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV) TONIGHT TURN
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY AGAIN WITH
WIDESPREAD 20-30 KNOT GUSTS LIKELY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM SLIDES OFF TO SOUTHEAST.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 012332
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
632 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND
POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 549 PM EST SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TO BLEND
IN OBSERVATIONS OVER PAST COUPLE HOURS. FORECAST TRACKING WELL
WITH ONLY MINOR DISCREPANCIES IN HOURLY DEWPOINTS. LIGHT SNOW
FALLING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW KEEPING IT AT BAY. PREVIOUS
FORECAST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS STILL APPROPRIATE WITH MAIN MOISTURE
IN PLUME ACROSS PA/SOUTHERN NY/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS HAVE JUST NOT BEEN FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. PLUME OF DEEPER
MOISTURE/SNOW HAS BEEN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...BUT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS KEPT THIS MOISTURE OUT OF
THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE TO ALSO
LIMIT THE SNOW POTENTIAL. THIS WILL ALL CHANGE AS THE EVENING
WEARS ON AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE UP
ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BOTTOM LINE IS WE ARE LOOKING AT A
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 00Z AND THE
12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDING AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR
REACHING THE BTV AREA. THAT WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESULTING IN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIXED PTYPES ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY
KEEPS THE SURFACE/925/850/700MB 0C LINES ALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THE TIME PERIOD RESULTING IN ALMOST ALL SNOW WHEREAS THE
GFS IS SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY IN ITS TRACK LEADING TO SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY TOWARDS THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM (LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY) AS THE
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE 1000-700MB LAYER RH DISSIPATES IN BOTH
MODELS AND THE PWATS DROP FROM 0.7" TO 0.25" BY 18Z. SO THE MORAL
OF THE STORY IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE WIDE SPREAD PRECIPITATION
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH BY 18-00Z. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL WARM THE ENTIRE REGION TO ABOVE 35F
GETTING CLOSE TO 40F BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY DROPPING
OFF DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY
TO ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY
TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW BUT
THATS ABOUT IT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO JUST BELOW
IN THE NOTORIOUS COLD SPOTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE AREA IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS SEEING
SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE GRADUALLY WARMING TREND TOWARDS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND
FREEZING IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1500 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND
SNOW SHOWERS. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ON MONDAY. LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR/MVFR AT BTV/PBG WITH DOWNSLOPING
WINDS AND DRY LOW LEVELS LIMITING COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
SNOW...ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE. MSS ALSO
LIKELY MAINLY MVFR ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACTS AT RUT/MPV/SLK WHERE IFR LIKELY
TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING AT MPV/SLK ON MONDAY. DUE TO EXPECTED SCATTERED
NATURE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY OUTSIDE OF SLK/MPV...ANY TAF SITE
MAY EXPERIENCE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR AS WELL. SOUTH WINDS
5-10 KNOTS (WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV) TONIGHT TURN
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY AGAIN WITH
WIDESPREAD 20-30 KNOT GUSTS LIKELY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM SLIDES OFF TO SOUTHEAST.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...MUCCILLI




000
FXUS61 KBTV 012332
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
632 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND
POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 549 PM EST SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TO BLEND
IN OBSERVATIONS OVER PAST COUPLE HOURS. FORECAST TRACKING WELL
WITH ONLY MINOR DISCREPANCIES IN HOURLY DEWPOINTS. LIGHT SNOW
FALLING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW KEEPING IT AT BAY. PREVIOUS
FORECAST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS STILL APPROPRIATE WITH MAIN MOISTURE
IN PLUME ACROSS PA/SOUTHERN NY/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS HAVE JUST NOT BEEN FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. PLUME OF DEEPER
MOISTURE/SNOW HAS BEEN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...BUT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS KEPT THIS MOISTURE OUT OF
THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE TO ALSO
LIMIT THE SNOW POTENTIAL. THIS WILL ALL CHANGE AS THE EVENING
WEARS ON AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE UP
ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BOTTOM LINE IS WE ARE LOOKING AT A
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 00Z AND THE
12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDING AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR
REACHING THE BTV AREA. THAT WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESULTING IN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIXED PTYPES ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY
KEEPS THE SURFACE/925/850/700MB 0C LINES ALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THE TIME PERIOD RESULTING IN ALMOST ALL SNOW WHEREAS THE
GFS IS SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY IN ITS TRACK LEADING TO SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY TOWARDS THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM (LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY) AS THE
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE 1000-700MB LAYER RH DISSIPATES IN BOTH
MODELS AND THE PWATS DROP FROM 0.7" TO 0.25" BY 18Z. SO THE MORAL
OF THE STORY IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE WIDE SPREAD PRECIPITATION
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH BY 18-00Z. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL WARM THE ENTIRE REGION TO ABOVE 35F
GETTING CLOSE TO 40F BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY DROPPING
OFF DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY
TO ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY
TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW BUT
THATS ABOUT IT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO JUST BELOW
IN THE NOTORIOUS COLD SPOTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE AREA IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS SEEING
SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE GRADUALLY WARMING TREND TOWARDS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND
FREEZING IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1500 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND
SNOW SHOWERS. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ON MONDAY. LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR/MVFR AT BTV/PBG WITH DOWNSLOPING
WINDS AND DRY LOW LEVELS LIMITING COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
SNOW...ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE. MSS ALSO
LIKELY MAINLY MVFR ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACTS AT RUT/MPV/SLK WHERE IFR LIKELY
TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING AT MPV/SLK ON MONDAY. DUE TO EXPECTED SCATTERED
NATURE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY OUTSIDE OF SLK/MPV...ANY TAF SITE
MAY EXPERIENCE A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR AS WELL. SOUTH WINDS
5-10 KNOTS (WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV) TONIGHT TURN
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY AGAIN WITH
WIDESPREAD 20-30 KNOT GUSTS LIKELY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AS SYSTEM SLIDES OFF TO SOUTHEAST.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...MUCCILLI



000
FXUS61 KBTV 012250
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
550 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND
POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 549 PM EST SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TO BLEND
IN OBSERVATIONS OVER PAST COUPLE HOURS. FORECAST TRACKING WELL
WITH ONLY MINOR DISCREPANCIES IN HOURLY DEWPOINTS. LIGHT SNOW
FALLING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW KEEPING IT AT BAY. PREVIOUS
FORECAST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS STILL APPROPRIATE WITH MAIN MOISTURE
IN PLUME ACROSS PA/SOUTHERN NY/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS HAVE JUST NOT BEEN FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. PLUME OF DEEPER
MOISTURE/SNOW HAS BEEN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...BUT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS KEPT THIS MOISTURE OUT OF
THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE TO ALSO
LIMIT THE SNOW POTENTIAL. THIS WILL ALL CHANGE AS THE EVENING
WEARS ON AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE UP
ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BOTTOM LINE IS WE ARE LOOKING AT A
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 00Z AND THE
12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDING AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR
REACHING THE BTV AREA. THAT WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESULTING IN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIXED PTYPES ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY
KEEPS THE SURFACE/925/850/700MB 0C LINES ALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THE TIME PERIOD RESULTING IN ALMOST ALL SNOW WHEREAS THE
GFS IS SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY IN ITS TRACK LEADING TO SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY TOWARDS THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM (LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY) AS THE
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE 1000-700MB LAYER RH DISSIPATES IN BOTH
MODELS AND THE PWATS DROP FROM 0.7" TO 0.25" BY 18Z. SO THE MORAL
OF THE STORY IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE WIDE SPREAD PRECIPITATION
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH BY 18-00Z. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL WARM THE ENTIRE REGION TO ABOVE 35F
GETTING CLOSE TO 40F BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY DROPPING
OFF DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY
TO ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY
TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW BUT
THATS ABOUT IT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO JUST BELOW
IN THE NOTORIOUS COLD SPOTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE AREA IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS SEEING
SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE GRADUALLY WARMING TREND TOWARDS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND
FREEZING IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1500 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...CURRENT IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A
STRONG CLOUD HAS BUILT IN OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS MORNING AND
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA CEILINGS SHOULD
BEGIN TO COME DOWN STILL UNDER VFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 20Z- 01Z TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW FOR
KMSS/KSLK/KMPV. RIGHT NOW THE BAND OF MOISTURE OVER KRUT IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ALREADY CAUSING IFR VISIBILITY AT
SURROUNDING SITES. EXPECT BRIEF OFF AND ON IFR VISIBILITY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE BEFORE DROPPING TO IFR FOR THE DURATION OF
THE EVENING BY AROUND 00Z. LONG DURATION IFR IS NOT EXPECTED AT
KPBG/KBTV DUE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND 02-04Z
AND CONTINUING THROUGH 12-14Z. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL STRENGTHEN
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT KBTV
AND KPBG. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 09Z MONDAY EXCEPTED
FOR KMSS WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS ORIENTED
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS. GREATEST CHANCE OF IFR AT KMPV/KSLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL



000
FXUS61 KBTV 012250
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
550 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND
POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 549 PM EST SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TO BLEND
IN OBSERVATIONS OVER PAST COUPLE HOURS. FORECAST TRACKING WELL
WITH ONLY MINOR DISCREPANCIES IN HOURLY DEWPOINTS. LIGHT SNOW
FALLING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW KEEPING IT AT BAY. PREVIOUS
FORECAST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS STILL APPROPRIATE WITH MAIN MOISTURE
IN PLUME ACROSS PA/SOUTHERN NY/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS HAVE JUST NOT BEEN FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. PLUME OF DEEPER
MOISTURE/SNOW HAS BEEN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...BUT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS KEPT THIS MOISTURE OUT OF
THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE TO ALSO
LIMIT THE SNOW POTENTIAL. THIS WILL ALL CHANGE AS THE EVENING
WEARS ON AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE UP
ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BOTTOM LINE IS WE ARE LOOKING AT A
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 00Z AND THE
12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDING AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR
REACHING THE BTV AREA. THAT WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESULTING IN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIXED PTYPES ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY
KEEPS THE SURFACE/925/850/700MB 0C LINES ALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THE TIME PERIOD RESULTING IN ALMOST ALL SNOW WHEREAS THE
GFS IS SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY IN ITS TRACK LEADING TO SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY TOWARDS THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM (LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY) AS THE
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE 1000-700MB LAYER RH DISSIPATES IN BOTH
MODELS AND THE PWATS DROP FROM 0.7" TO 0.25" BY 18Z. SO THE MORAL
OF THE STORY IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE WIDE SPREAD PRECIPITATION
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH BY 18-00Z. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL WARM THE ENTIRE REGION TO ABOVE 35F
GETTING CLOSE TO 40F BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY DROPPING
OFF DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY
TO ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY
TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW BUT
THATS ABOUT IT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO JUST BELOW
IN THE NOTORIOUS COLD SPOTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE AREA IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS SEEING
SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE GRADUALLY WARMING TREND TOWARDS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND
FREEZING IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1500 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...CURRENT IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A
STRONG CLOUD HAS BUILT IN OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS MORNING AND
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA CEILINGS SHOULD
BEGIN TO COME DOWN STILL UNDER VFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 20Z- 01Z TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW FOR
KMSS/KSLK/KMPV. RIGHT NOW THE BAND OF MOISTURE OVER KRUT IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ALREADY CAUSING IFR VISIBILITY AT
SURROUNDING SITES. EXPECT BRIEF OFF AND ON IFR VISIBILITY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE BEFORE DROPPING TO IFR FOR THE DURATION OF
THE EVENING BY AROUND 00Z. LONG DURATION IFR IS NOT EXPECTED AT
KPBG/KBTV DUE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND 02-04Z
AND CONTINUING THROUGH 12-14Z. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL STRENGTHEN
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT KBTV
AND KPBG. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 09Z MONDAY EXCEPTED
FOR KMSS WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS ORIENTED
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS. GREATEST CHANCE OF IFR AT KMPV/KSLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL



000
FXUS61 KBTV 012250
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
550 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND
POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 549 PM EST SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TO BLEND
IN OBSERVATIONS OVER PAST COUPLE HOURS. FORECAST TRACKING WELL
WITH ONLY MINOR DISCREPANCIES IN HOURLY DEWPOINTS. LIGHT SNOW
FALLING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW KEEPING IT AT BAY. PREVIOUS
FORECAST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS STILL APPROPRIATE WITH MAIN MOISTURE
IN PLUME ACROSS PA/SOUTHERN NY/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS HAVE JUST NOT BEEN FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. PLUME OF DEEPER
MOISTURE/SNOW HAS BEEN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...BUT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS KEPT THIS MOISTURE OUT OF
THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE TO ALSO
LIMIT THE SNOW POTENTIAL. THIS WILL ALL CHANGE AS THE EVENING
WEARS ON AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE UP
ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BOTTOM LINE IS WE ARE LOOKING AT A
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 00Z AND THE
12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDING AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR
REACHING THE BTV AREA. THAT WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESULTING IN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIXED PTYPES ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY
KEEPS THE SURFACE/925/850/700MB 0C LINES ALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THE TIME PERIOD RESULTING IN ALMOST ALL SNOW WHEREAS THE
GFS IS SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY IN ITS TRACK LEADING TO SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY TOWARDS THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM (LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY) AS THE
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE 1000-700MB LAYER RH DISSIPATES IN BOTH
MODELS AND THE PWATS DROP FROM 0.7" TO 0.25" BY 18Z. SO THE MORAL
OF THE STORY IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE WIDE SPREAD PRECIPITATION
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH BY 18-00Z. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL WARM THE ENTIRE REGION TO ABOVE 35F
GETTING CLOSE TO 40F BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY DROPPING
OFF DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY
TO ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY
TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW BUT
THATS ABOUT IT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO JUST BELOW
IN THE NOTORIOUS COLD SPOTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE AREA IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS SEEING
SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE GRADUALLY WARMING TREND TOWARDS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND
FREEZING IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1500 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...CURRENT IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A
STRONG CLOUD HAS BUILT IN OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS MORNING AND
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA CEILINGS SHOULD
BEGIN TO COME DOWN STILL UNDER VFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 20Z- 01Z TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW FOR
KMSS/KSLK/KMPV. RIGHT NOW THE BAND OF MOISTURE OVER KRUT IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ALREADY CAUSING IFR VISIBILITY AT
SURROUNDING SITES. EXPECT BRIEF OFF AND ON IFR VISIBILITY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE BEFORE DROPPING TO IFR FOR THE DURATION OF
THE EVENING BY AROUND 00Z. LONG DURATION IFR IS NOT EXPECTED AT
KPBG/KBTV DUE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND 02-04Z
AND CONTINUING THROUGH 12-14Z. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL STRENGTHEN
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT KBTV
AND KPBG. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 09Z MONDAY EXCEPTED
FOR KMSS WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS ORIENTED
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS. GREATEST CHANCE OF IFR AT KMPV/KSLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 012250
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
550 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND
POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 549 PM EST SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TO BLEND
IN OBSERVATIONS OVER PAST COUPLE HOURS. FORECAST TRACKING WELL
WITH ONLY MINOR DISCREPANCIES IN HOURLY DEWPOINTS. LIGHT SNOW
FALLING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW KEEPING IT AT BAY. PREVIOUS
FORECAST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS STILL APPROPRIATE WITH MAIN MOISTURE
IN PLUME ACROSS PA/SOUTHERN NY/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS HAVE JUST NOT BEEN FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. PLUME OF DEEPER
MOISTURE/SNOW HAS BEEN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...BUT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS KEPT THIS MOISTURE OUT OF
THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE TO ALSO
LIMIT THE SNOW POTENTIAL. THIS WILL ALL CHANGE AS THE EVENING
WEARS ON AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE UP
ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BOTTOM LINE IS WE ARE LOOKING AT A
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 00Z AND THE
12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDING AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR
REACHING THE BTV AREA. THAT WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESULTING IN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIXED PTYPES ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY
KEEPS THE SURFACE/925/850/700MB 0C LINES ALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THE TIME PERIOD RESULTING IN ALMOST ALL SNOW WHEREAS THE
GFS IS SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY IN ITS TRACK LEADING TO SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY TOWARDS THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM (LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY) AS THE
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE 1000-700MB LAYER RH DISSIPATES IN BOTH
MODELS AND THE PWATS DROP FROM 0.7" TO 0.25" BY 18Z. SO THE MORAL
OF THE STORY IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE WIDE SPREAD PRECIPITATION
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH BY 18-00Z. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL WARM THE ENTIRE REGION TO ABOVE 35F
GETTING CLOSE TO 40F BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY DROPPING
OFF DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY
TO ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY
TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW BUT
THATS ABOUT IT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO JUST BELOW
IN THE NOTORIOUS COLD SPOTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE AREA IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS SEEING
SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE GRADUALLY WARMING TREND TOWARDS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND
FREEZING IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1500 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...CURRENT IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A
STRONG CLOUD HAS BUILT IN OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS MORNING AND
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA CEILINGS SHOULD
BEGIN TO COME DOWN STILL UNDER VFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 20Z- 01Z TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW FOR
KMSS/KSLK/KMPV. RIGHT NOW THE BAND OF MOISTURE OVER KRUT IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ALREADY CAUSING IFR VISIBILITY AT
SURROUNDING SITES. EXPECT BRIEF OFF AND ON IFR VISIBILITY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE BEFORE DROPPING TO IFR FOR THE DURATION OF
THE EVENING BY AROUND 00Z. LONG DURATION IFR IS NOT EXPECTED AT
KPBG/KBTV DUE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND 02-04Z
AND CONTINUING THROUGH 12-14Z. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL STRENGTHEN
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT KBTV
AND KPBG. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 09Z MONDAY EXCEPTED
FOR KMSS WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS ORIENTED
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS. GREATEST CHANCE OF IFR AT KMPV/KSLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KALY 012109
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
409 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

AS OF 400 PM EST...LIGHT SNOW WAS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A FEW BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL OCCURRING. FOR
THIS UPDATE HAVE LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERNHALF
OF THE FA AND PRETTY MUCH LEFT THE SNOW AMOUNTS IN TACT ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS. TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR
PRODUCING THE SNOWFALL WITH ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING SHOULD ENHANCE THE SNOWFALL SOME. GENERALLY EXPECTING 1
TO 3 INCHES NORTH AND 3 TO 6 INCHES SOUTH. WILL LEAVE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN TACT AS IS FOR NOW. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
FALL ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES IN
NY...AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A 13 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIO...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD VARY ACROSS THE AREA. THE STEADY SNOW
SHOULD END A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA.
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRIONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS.

ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

FOR TUESDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. A STREGTHENING STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS BY 6 PM ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. AT THIS POINT
WILL CALL FOR HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST 01/12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
A DOMAIN RANGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WESTWARD INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SHOWS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
START AS SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS LOWER TO MID LEVEL WEAK
WAA WILL BE ESTABLISHED OUT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL STRIP VORTICITY
WITH MAXIMUM ENHANCING PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM AND ALONG A
PROGRESSING SURFACE COLD FRONT. STRONGER WAA WILL BE PRESENT MOVING
INTO THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY WHERE A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE 925-850 HPA WIND FIELD WILL
SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS WE GO PAST 12Z WEDNESDAY...MOST
AREAS WILL SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN AT TIMES WITH SNOW IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AS MOST OF THE AREA STILL HAVE SEVERAL
INCHES TO A FEW FEET OF SNOW COVER STILL ON THE GROUND...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL STILL SUPPORT ICY CONDITIONS AS A COLD RAIN WILL FALL
FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS RAIN WILL
MAKE CONTACT WITH A FROZEN SURFACE AND A SURFACE WITH SEVERAL FEET
OF FROST DEPTH. AS WE HEAD TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AS WE APPROACH
00Z WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL END AS SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AS MODERATE CAA RETURNS TO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT FOLLOW DIURNAL TRENDS. LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH FOLLOWS MORE AMERICAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH 850 HPA
AND 925 HPA TEMPS BETWEEN 0C AND 4C WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
BRIEFLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADKS TO LOW AND MID 40S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID AND UPPER TEENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE SOME LOW POPS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK. OTHERWISE MOST OF THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
TRANQUIL. SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NY/CANADA BORDER DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND MAY
MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL VARY FROM LOW VFR AT KGFL...TO MVFR/IFR AT
KALB/KPSF/KPOU IN THE LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE CIGS ARE
MAINLY MVFR...BUT VSBYS ARE FLUCTUATING BETWEEN MVFR/IFR LEVELS.
THE LIGHT SNOW WILL GET INTO KGFL BTWN 18Z-21Z/SUN. SOME VERY
BRIEF BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOW MAY GET INTO KPOU/KPSF. THE MAIN SFC
LOW WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS MOST OF THE SNOWFALL.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE BTWN 04Z-07Z/MON. THE
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM IFR/MVFR LEVELS TO VFR
LEVELS BY 11Z-13Z/MON. KPSF WILL HAVE A CHC TO CONTINUE HIGH MVFR
CIGS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE W TO NW AT 10-15 KTS BY
DAYBREAK TOMORROW.

S TO SE WINDS OF 5-12 KTS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE DIRECTION EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS
WILL INITIALLY SHIFT TO SW TO W AT 10 KTS OR LESS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...11Z-14Z/MON THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS FROM
THE W/NW WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SNOW
WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 012109
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
409 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

AS OF 400 PM EST...LIGHT SNOW WAS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A FEW BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL OCCURRING. FOR
THIS UPDATE HAVE LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERNHALF
OF THE FA AND PRETTY MUCH LEFT THE SNOW AMOUNTS IN TACT ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS. TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR
PRODUCING THE SNOWFALL WITH ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING SHOULD ENHANCE THE SNOWFALL SOME. GENERALLY EXPECTING 1
TO 3 INCHES NORTH AND 3 TO 6 INCHES SOUTH. WILL LEAVE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN TACT AS IS FOR NOW. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
FALL ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES IN
NY...AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A 13 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIO...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD VARY ACROSS THE AREA. THE STEADY SNOW
SHOULD END A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA.
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRIONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS.

ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

FOR TUESDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. A STREGTHENING STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS BY 6 PM ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. AT THIS POINT
WILL CALL FOR HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST 01/12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
A DOMAIN RANGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WESTWARD INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SHOWS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
START AS SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS LOWER TO MID LEVEL WEAK
WAA WILL BE ESTABLISHED OUT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL STRIP VORTICITY
WITH MAXIMUM ENHANCING PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM AND ALONG A
PROGRESSING SURFACE COLD FRONT. STRONGER WAA WILL BE PRESENT MOVING
INTO THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY WHERE A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE 925-850 HPA WIND FIELD WILL
SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS WE GO PAST 12Z WEDNESDAY...MOST
AREAS WILL SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN AT TIMES WITH SNOW IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AS MOST OF THE AREA STILL HAVE SEVERAL
INCHES TO A FEW FEET OF SNOW COVER STILL ON THE GROUND...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL STILL SUPPORT ICY CONDITIONS AS A COLD RAIN WILL FALL
FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS RAIN WILL
MAKE CONTACT WITH A FROZEN SURFACE AND A SURFACE WITH SEVERAL FEET
OF FROST DEPTH. AS WE HEAD TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AS WE APPROACH
00Z WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL END AS SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AS MODERATE CAA RETURNS TO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT FOLLOW DIURNAL TRENDS. LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH FOLLOWS MORE AMERICAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH 850 HPA
AND 925 HPA TEMPS BETWEEN 0C AND 4C WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
BRIEFLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADKS TO LOW AND MID 40S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID AND UPPER TEENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE SOME LOW POPS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK. OTHERWISE MOST OF THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
TRANQUIL. SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NY/CANADA BORDER DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND MAY
MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL VARY FROM LOW VFR AT KGFL...TO MVFR/IFR AT
KALB/KPSF/KPOU IN THE LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE CIGS ARE
MAINLY MVFR...BUT VSBYS ARE FLUCTUATING BETWEEN MVFR/IFR LEVELS.
THE LIGHT SNOW WILL GET INTO KGFL BTWN 18Z-21Z/SUN. SOME VERY
BRIEF BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOW MAY GET INTO KPOU/KPSF. THE MAIN SFC
LOW WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS MOST OF THE SNOWFALL.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE BTWN 04Z-07Z/MON. THE
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM IFR/MVFR LEVELS TO VFR
LEVELS BY 11Z-13Z/MON. KPSF WILL HAVE A CHC TO CONTINUE HIGH MVFR
CIGS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE W TO NW AT 10-15 KTS BY
DAYBREAK TOMORROW.

S TO SE WINDS OF 5-12 KTS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE DIRECTION EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS
WILL INITIALLY SHIFT TO SW TO W AT 10 KTS OR LESS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...11Z-14Z/MON THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS FROM
THE W/NW WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SNOW
WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 012109
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
409 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

AS OF 400 PM EST...LIGHT SNOW WAS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A FEW BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL OCCURRING. FOR
THIS UPDATE HAVE LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERNHALF
OF THE FA AND PRETTY MUCH LEFT THE SNOW AMOUNTS IN TACT ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS. TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR
PRODUCING THE SNOWFALL WITH ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING SHOULD ENHANCE THE SNOWFALL SOME. GENERALLY EXPECTING 1
TO 3 INCHES NORTH AND 3 TO 6 INCHES SOUTH. WILL LEAVE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN TACT AS IS FOR NOW. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
FALL ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES IN
NY...AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A 13 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIO...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD VARY ACROSS THE AREA. THE STEADY SNOW
SHOULD END A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA.
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRIONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS.

ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

FOR TUESDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. A STREGTHENING STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS BY 6 PM ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. AT THIS POINT
WILL CALL FOR HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST 01/12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
A DOMAIN RANGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WESTWARD INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SHOWS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
START AS SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS LOWER TO MID LEVEL WEAK
WAA WILL BE ESTABLISHED OUT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL STRIP VORTICITY
WITH MAXIMUM ENHANCING PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM AND ALONG A
PROGRESSING SURFACE COLD FRONT. STRONGER WAA WILL BE PRESENT MOVING
INTO THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY WHERE A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE 925-850 HPA WIND FIELD WILL
SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS WE GO PAST 12Z WEDNESDAY...MOST
AREAS WILL SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN AT TIMES WITH SNOW IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AS MOST OF THE AREA STILL HAVE SEVERAL
INCHES TO A FEW FEET OF SNOW COVER STILL ON THE GROUND...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL STILL SUPPORT ICY CONDITIONS AS A COLD RAIN WILL FALL
FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS RAIN WILL
MAKE CONTACT WITH A FROZEN SURFACE AND A SURFACE WITH SEVERAL FEET
OF FROST DEPTH. AS WE HEAD TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AS WE APPROACH
00Z WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL END AS SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AS MODERATE CAA RETURNS TO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT FOLLOW DIURNAL TRENDS. LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH FOLLOWS MORE AMERICAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH 850 HPA
AND 925 HPA TEMPS BETWEEN 0C AND 4C WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
BRIEFLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADKS TO LOW AND MID 40S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID AND UPPER TEENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE SOME LOW POPS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK. OTHERWISE MOST OF THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
TRANQUIL. SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NY/CANADA BORDER DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND MAY
MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL VARY FROM LOW VFR AT KGFL...TO MVFR/IFR AT
KALB/KPSF/KPOU IN THE LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE CIGS ARE
MAINLY MVFR...BUT VSBYS ARE FLUCTUATING BETWEEN MVFR/IFR LEVELS.
THE LIGHT SNOW WILL GET INTO KGFL BTWN 18Z-21Z/SUN. SOME VERY
BRIEF BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOW MAY GET INTO KPOU/KPSF. THE MAIN SFC
LOW WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS MOST OF THE SNOWFALL.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE BTWN 04Z-07Z/MON. THE
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM IFR/MVFR LEVELS TO VFR
LEVELS BY 11Z-13Z/MON. KPSF WILL HAVE A CHC TO CONTINUE HIGH MVFR
CIGS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE W TO NW AT 10-15 KTS BY
DAYBREAK TOMORROW.

S TO SE WINDS OF 5-12 KTS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE DIRECTION EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS
WILL INITIALLY SHIFT TO SW TO W AT 10 KTS OR LESS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...11Z-14Z/MON THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS FROM
THE W/NW WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SNOW
WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 012109
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
409 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

AS OF 400 PM EST...LIGHT SNOW WAS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A FEW BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL OCCURRING. FOR
THIS UPDATE HAVE LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERNHALF
OF THE FA AND PRETTY MUCH LEFT THE SNOW AMOUNTS IN TACT ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS. TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR
PRODUCING THE SNOWFALL WITH ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING SHOULD ENHANCE THE SNOWFALL SOME. GENERALLY EXPECTING 1
TO 3 INCHES NORTH AND 3 TO 6 INCHES SOUTH. WILL LEAVE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN TACT AS IS FOR NOW. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
FALL ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES IN
NY...AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A 13 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIO...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD VARY ACROSS THE AREA. THE STEADY SNOW
SHOULD END A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA.
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRIONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS.

ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

FOR TUESDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. A STREGTHENING STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS BY 6 PM ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. AT THIS POINT
WILL CALL FOR HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST 01/12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
A DOMAIN RANGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WESTWARD INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SHOWS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
START AS SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS LOWER TO MID LEVEL WEAK
WAA WILL BE ESTABLISHED OUT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL STRIP VORTICITY
WITH MAXIMUM ENHANCING PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM AND ALONG A
PROGRESSING SURFACE COLD FRONT. STRONGER WAA WILL BE PRESENT MOVING
INTO THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY WHERE A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE 925-850 HPA WIND FIELD WILL
SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS WE GO PAST 12Z WEDNESDAY...MOST
AREAS WILL SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN AT TIMES WITH SNOW IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AS MOST OF THE AREA STILL HAVE SEVERAL
INCHES TO A FEW FEET OF SNOW COVER STILL ON THE GROUND...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL STILL SUPPORT ICY CONDITIONS AS A COLD RAIN WILL FALL
FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS RAIN WILL
MAKE CONTACT WITH A FROZEN SURFACE AND A SURFACE WITH SEVERAL FEET
OF FROST DEPTH. AS WE HEAD TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AS WE APPROACH
00Z WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL END AS SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AS MODERATE CAA RETURNS TO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT FOLLOW DIURNAL TRENDS. LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH FOLLOWS MORE AMERICAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH 850 HPA
AND 925 HPA TEMPS BETWEEN 0C AND 4C WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
BRIEFLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADKS TO LOW AND MID 40S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID AND UPPER TEENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE SOME LOW POPS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK. OTHERWISE MOST OF THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
TRANQUIL. SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NY/CANADA BORDER DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND MAY
MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL VARY FROM LOW VFR AT KGFL...TO MVFR/IFR AT
KALB/KPSF/KPOU IN THE LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE CIGS ARE
MAINLY MVFR...BUT VSBYS ARE FLUCTUATING BETWEEN MVFR/IFR LEVELS.
THE LIGHT SNOW WILL GET INTO KGFL BTWN 18Z-21Z/SUN. SOME VERY
BRIEF BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOW MAY GET INTO KPOU/KPSF. THE MAIN SFC
LOW WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS MOST OF THE SNOWFALL.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE BTWN 04Z-07Z/MON. THE
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM IFR/MVFR LEVELS TO VFR
LEVELS BY 11Z-13Z/MON. KPSF WILL HAVE A CHC TO CONTINUE HIGH MVFR
CIGS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE W TO NW AT 10-15 KTS BY
DAYBREAK TOMORROW.

S TO SE WINDS OF 5-12 KTS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE DIRECTION EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS
WILL INITIALLY SHIFT TO SW TO W AT 10 KTS OR LESS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...11Z-14Z/MON THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS FROM
THE W/NW WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SNOW
WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 012109
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
409 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

AS OF 400 PM EST...LIGHT SNOW WAS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A FEW BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL OCCURRING. FOR
THIS UPDATE HAVE LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERNHALF
OF THE FA AND PRETTY MUCH LEFT THE SNOW AMOUNTS IN TACT ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS. TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR
PRODUCING THE SNOWFALL WITH ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING SHOULD ENHANCE THE SNOWFALL SOME. GENERALLY EXPECTING 1
TO 3 INCHES NORTH AND 3 TO 6 INCHES SOUTH. WILL LEAVE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN TACT AS IS FOR NOW. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
FALL ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES IN
NY...AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A 13 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIO...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD VARY ACROSS THE AREA. THE STEADY SNOW
SHOULD END A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA.
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRIONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS.

ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

FOR TUESDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. A STREGTHENING STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS BY 6 PM ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. AT THIS POINT
WILL CALL FOR HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST 01/12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
A DOMAIN RANGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WESTWARD INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SHOWS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
START AS SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS LOWER TO MID LEVEL WEAK
WAA WILL BE ESTABLISHED OUT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL STRIP VORTICITY
WITH MAXIMUM ENHANCING PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM AND ALONG A
PROGRESSING SURFACE COLD FRONT. STRONGER WAA WILL BE PRESENT MOVING
INTO THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY WHERE A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE 925-850 HPA WIND FIELD WILL
SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS WE GO PAST 12Z WEDNESDAY...MOST
AREAS WILL SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN AT TIMES WITH SNOW IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AS MOST OF THE AREA STILL HAVE SEVERAL
INCHES TO A FEW FEET OF SNOW COVER STILL ON THE GROUND...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL STILL SUPPORT ICY CONDITIONS AS A COLD RAIN WILL FALL
FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS RAIN WILL
MAKE CONTACT WITH A FROZEN SURFACE AND A SURFACE WITH SEVERAL FEET
OF FROST DEPTH. AS WE HEAD TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AS WE APPROACH
00Z WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL END AS SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AS MODERATE CAA RETURNS TO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT FOLLOW DIURNAL TRENDS. LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH FOLLOWS MORE AMERICAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH 850 HPA
AND 925 HPA TEMPS BETWEEN 0C AND 4C WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
BRIEFLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADKS TO LOW AND MID 40S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID AND UPPER TEENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE SOME LOW POPS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK. OTHERWISE MOST OF THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
TRANQUIL. SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NY/CANADA BORDER DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND MAY
MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL VARY FROM LOW VFR AT KGFL...TO MVFR/IFR AT
KALB/KPSF/KPOU IN THE LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE CIGS ARE
MAINLY MVFR...BUT VSBYS ARE FLUCTUATING BETWEEN MVFR/IFR LEVELS.
THE LIGHT SNOW WILL GET INTO KGFL BTWN 18Z-21Z/SUN. SOME VERY
BRIEF BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOW MAY GET INTO KPOU/KPSF. THE MAIN SFC
LOW WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS MOST OF THE SNOWFALL.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE BTWN 04Z-07Z/MON. THE
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM IFR/MVFR LEVELS TO VFR
LEVELS BY 11Z-13Z/MON. KPSF WILL HAVE A CHC TO CONTINUE HIGH MVFR
CIGS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE W TO NW AT 10-15 KTS BY
DAYBREAK TOMORROW.

S TO SE WINDS OF 5-12 KTS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE DIRECTION EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS
WILL INITIALLY SHIFT TO SW TO W AT 10 KTS OR LESS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...11Z-14Z/MON THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS FROM
THE W/NW WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SNOW
WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 012109
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
409 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

AS OF 400 PM EST...LIGHT SNOW WAS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A FEW BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL OCCURRING. FOR
THIS UPDATE HAVE LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERNHALF
OF THE FA AND PRETTY MUCH LEFT THE SNOW AMOUNTS IN TACT ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS. TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR
PRODUCING THE SNOWFALL WITH ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING SHOULD ENHANCE THE SNOWFALL SOME. GENERALLY EXPECTING 1
TO 3 INCHES NORTH AND 3 TO 6 INCHES SOUTH. WILL LEAVE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN TACT AS IS FOR NOW. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
FALL ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES IN
NY...AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A 13 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIO...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD VARY ACROSS THE AREA. THE STEADY SNOW
SHOULD END A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA.
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRIONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH
EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS.

ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

FOR TUESDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. A STREGTHENING STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS BY 6 PM ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA. AT THIS POINT
WILL CALL FOR HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST 01/12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
A DOMAIN RANGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WESTWARD INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME SHOWS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
START AS SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS LOWER TO MID LEVEL WEAK
WAA WILL BE ESTABLISHED OUT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL STRIP VORTICITY
WITH MAXIMUM ENHANCING PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM AND ALONG A
PROGRESSING SURFACE COLD FRONT. STRONGER WAA WILL BE PRESENT MOVING
INTO THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY WHERE A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE 925-850 HPA WIND FIELD WILL
SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS WE GO PAST 12Z WEDNESDAY...MOST
AREAS WILL SUPPORT PLAIN RAIN AT TIMES WITH SNOW IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AS MOST OF THE AREA STILL HAVE SEVERAL
INCHES TO A FEW FEET OF SNOW COVER STILL ON THE GROUND...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL STILL SUPPORT ICY CONDITIONS AS A COLD RAIN WILL FALL
FROM THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS RAIN WILL
MAKE CONTACT WITH A FROZEN SURFACE AND A SURFACE WITH SEVERAL FEET
OF FROST DEPTH. AS WE HEAD TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AS WE APPROACH
00Z WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL END AS SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AS MODERATE CAA RETURNS TO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT FOLLOW DIURNAL TRENDS. LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH FOLLOWS MORE AMERICAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH 850 HPA
AND 925 HPA TEMPS BETWEEN 0C AND 4C WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
BRIEFLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADKS TO LOW AND MID 40S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID AND UPPER TEENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE SOME LOW POPS AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK. OTHERWISE MOST OF THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN
TRANQUIL. SOME NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NY/CANADA BORDER DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE A WEST SOUTHWEST WIND MAY
MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL VARY FROM LOW VFR AT KGFL...TO MVFR/IFR AT
KALB/KPSF/KPOU IN THE LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE CIGS ARE
MAINLY MVFR...BUT VSBYS ARE FLUCTUATING BETWEEN MVFR/IFR LEVELS.
THE LIGHT SNOW WILL GET INTO KGFL BTWN 18Z-21Z/SUN. SOME VERY
BRIEF BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOW MAY GET INTO KPOU/KPSF. THE MAIN SFC
LOW WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS MOST OF THE SNOWFALL.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE BTWN 04Z-07Z/MON. THE
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM IFR/MVFR LEVELS TO VFR
LEVELS BY 11Z-13Z/MON. KPSF WILL HAVE A CHC TO CONTINUE HIGH MVFR
CIGS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE W TO NW AT 10-15 KTS BY
DAYBREAK TOMORROW.

S TO SE WINDS OF 5-12 KTS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE DIRECTION EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS
WILL INITIALLY SHIFT TO SW TO W AT 10 KTS OR LESS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...11Z-14Z/MON THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS FROM
THE W/NW WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SNOW
WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBTV 012024
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
324 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND
POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...CONDITIONS HAVE JUST NOT BEEN FAVORABLE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. PLUME OF DEEPER
MOISTURE/SNOW HAS BEEN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...BUT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS KEPT THIS MOISTURE OUT OF
THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE TO ALSO
LIMIT THE SNOW POTENTIAL. THIS WILL ALL CHANGE AS THE EVENING
WEARS ON AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE UP
ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BOTTOM LINE IS WE ARE LOOKING AT A
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 00Z AND THE
12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDING AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR
REACHING THE BTV AREA. THAT WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESULTING IN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIXED PTYPES ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY
KEEPS THE SURFACE/925/850/700MB 0C LINES ALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THE TIME PERIOD RESULTING IN ALMOST ALL SNOW WHEREAS THE
GFS IS SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY IN ITS TRACK LEADING TO SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY TOWARDS THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM (LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY) AS THE
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE 1000-700MB LAYER RH DISSIPATES IN BOTH
MODELS AND THE PWATS DROP FROM 0.7" TO 0.25" BY 18Z. SO THE MORAL
OF THE STORY IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE WIDE SPREAD PRECIPITATION
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH BY 18-00Z. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL WARM THE ENTIRE REGION TO ABOVE 35F
GETTING CLOSE TO 40F BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY DROPPING
OFF DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY
TO ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY
TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW BUT
THATS ABOUT IT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO JUST BELOW
IN THE NOTORIOUS COLD SPOTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE AREA IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS SEEING
SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE GRADUALLY WARMING TREND TOWARDS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND
FREEZING IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1500 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...CURRENT IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A
STRONG CLOUD HAS BUILT IN OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS MORNING AND
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA CEILINGS SHOULD
BEGIN TO COME DOWN STILL UNDER VFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 20Z- 01Z TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW FOR
KMSS/KSLK/KMPV. RIGHT NOW THE BAND OF MOISTURE OVER KRUT IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ALREADY CAUSING IFR VISIBILITY AT
SURROUNDING SITES. EXPECT BRIEF OFF AND ON IFR VISIBILITY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE BEFORE DROPPING TO IFR FOR THE DURATION OF
THE EVENING BY AROUND 00Z. LONG DURATION IFR IS NOT EXPECTED AT
KPBG/KBTV DUE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND 02-04Z
AND CONTINUING THROUGH 12-14Z. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL STRENGTHEN
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT KBTV
AND KPBG. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 09Z MONDAY EXCEPTED
FOR KMSS WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS ORIENTED
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS. GREATEST CHANCE OF IFR AT KMPV/KSLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL



000
FXUS61 KBTV 012024
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
324 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER...BUT THEN ANOTHER
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...AND
POSSIBLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...CONDITIONS HAVE JUST NOT BEEN FAVORABLE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. PLUME OF DEEPER
MOISTURE/SNOW HAS BEEN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...BUT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS KEPT THIS MOISTURE OUT OF
THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE TO ALSO
LIMIT THE SNOW POTENTIAL. THIS WILL ALL CHANGE AS THE EVENING
WEARS ON AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE UP
ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BOTTOM LINE IS WE ARE LOOKING AT A
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ON MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED DRYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...SO NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP AND A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES UP INTO THE REGION
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS LOOKING AT WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOWS TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT. CAN SEE PICKING UP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES TO
INDICATE PERHAPS SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...BUT BY THE TIME THIS
HAPPENS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT QUICKLY MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FOR NOW
KEEPING MOST OF THE EVENT AS SNOW. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S AND THEN NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
SNOW OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EST SUNDAY...ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 00Z AND THE
12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDING AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR
REACHING THE BTV AREA. THAT WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESULTING IN LESS OF A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
MIXED PTYPES ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF ACTUALLY
KEEPS THE SURFACE/925/850/700MB 0C LINES ALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THE TIME PERIOD RESULTING IN ALMOST ALL SNOW WHEREAS THE
GFS IS SLIGHT MORE NORTHERLY IN ITS TRACK LEADING TO SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY TOWARDS THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM (LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY) AS THE
INITIAL BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER THE 1000-700MB LAYER RH DISSIPATES IN BOTH
MODELS AND THE PWATS DROP FROM 0.7" TO 0.25" BY 18Z. SO THE MORAL
OF THE STORY IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE WIDE SPREAD PRECIPITATION
EARLY IN THE MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH BY 18-00Z. THE SURGE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE MORNING WILL WARM THE ENTIRE REGION TO ABOVE 35F
GETTING CLOSE TO 40F BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY DROPPING
OFF DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA GIVING WAY
TO ANOTHER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE BELOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM WEDNESDAY
TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT AS SOME OF
THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW BUT
THATS ABOUT IT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO JUST BELOW
IN THE NOTORIOUS COLD SPOTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE AREA IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS SEEING
SINGLE DIGITS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE GRADUALLY WARMING TREND TOWARDS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND
FREEZING IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE UNDER MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1500 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...CURRENT IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A
STRONG CLOUD HAS BUILT IN OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS MORNING AND
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA CEILINGS SHOULD
BEGIN TO COME DOWN STILL UNDER VFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 20Z- 01Z TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW FOR
KMSS/KSLK/KMPV. RIGHT NOW THE BAND OF MOISTURE OVER KRUT IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ALREADY CAUSING IFR VISIBILITY AT
SURROUNDING SITES. EXPECT BRIEF OFF AND ON IFR VISIBILITY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE BEFORE DROPPING TO IFR FOR THE DURATION OF
THE EVENING BY AROUND 00Z. LONG DURATION IFR IS NOT EXPECTED AT
KPBG/KBTV DUE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND 02-04Z
AND CONTINUING THROUGH 12-14Z. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL STRENGTHEN
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT KBTV
AND KPBG. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 09Z MONDAY EXCEPTED
FOR KMSS WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS ORIENTED
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS. GREATEST CHANCE OF IFR AT KMPV/KSLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KALY 011806
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
106 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

AS OF 1215 PM EST...SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW HAS REACHED ALL BUT THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FA. THE COLUMN IS STILL
SATURATING WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SHORT-WAVE IN THE
W/SW FLOW ALOFT...AND THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE TN/OH VALLEY. THE
12Z KALY SOUNDING SHOWS ALL THE DRY AIR BELOW 750 HPA. HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3-4 DEGREES DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN
PLACE...AND THE ONSET OF THE SNOWFALL. LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/SE CATSKILLS/NW CT WE HAVE INCREASED THE POPS DUE TO THE
RADAR TRENDS. BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON THE VIRGA WILL BE
LESS...AND LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
AREA.

THE SYSTEM IS VERY PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE FAST-MOVING FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT AND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE BEING AN OPEN WAVE.
STEADY SNOW SHOULD END A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY.

WE ARE STILL FORECASTING GENERALLY 3 TO 6 INCHES WITHIN THE CURRENT
ADVISORY AREA...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
REGARDS TO THE QPF...WITH THE NAM SHOWING SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS AS
IT IS INDICATING SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AS A
RESULT...THE NAM IS ALSO SHOWING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SNOW GROWTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR AREA...BUT THE GFS IS NOT AS
ROBUST. KEEPING THIS POTENTIAL IN MIND...WE ARE THINKING THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHER END SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 6 INCHES WILL
BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES IN
NY...AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A 13 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIO...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD VARY ACROSS THE AREA.

EVEN THOUGH STEADY SNOW TAPERS OFF EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA. DESPITE
LIMITED WARMING INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND EVEN MID
30S SOUTH...THE PERSISTENT WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER. WIND GUSTS
OF 30-40 MPH WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND FAVORED W-E ORIENTED VALLEYS. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND INTO SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS WITHIN THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS.

BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING THE FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE
ANTICYCLONIC...WHICH SHOULD RAPIDLY SHUT DOWN THE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP
SNOWPACK IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AS
A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE...WITH A S-SW LOW LEVEL
DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE SPED UP THE
TIMING AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. THE NAM
IS LAGGING BEHIND IN TERMS OF TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP...BUT WILL
SIDE TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS/ECMWF TIMING AND MENTION LIKELY POPS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NY ZONES AND CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE WARMING ALOFT LATE IN THE
DAY...BUT WITH THE WARM NOSE STILL BELOW FREEZING WILL MENTION ALL
SNOW THROUGH 6 PM WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONSENSUS AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM GUIDANCE CONTINUES FOR A
MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. STILL
SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION GETS
SINCE THERE IS STILL A SPREAD AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE ABOVE FREEZING
LAYER ALOFT GETS.  THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THE WARMING ALOFT
WILL BE OF A VERY SHORT DURATION... AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL SHIFT EAST QUICKLY ALLOWING COLD ADVECTION TO SPREAD
INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

BASED ON THE SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT SHIFTING
TO WEST AND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION THAT
OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY RAPIDLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A LINE OR BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

SO...SNOW EARLY TUESDAY EVENING CHANGES TO A PERIOD OF MIX OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF COLD RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ONCE THE COVERAGE OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDS AND THE
WINDS BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST...THE MIXING COULD THEN AID
TEMPERATURES IN CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 30S...AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S
IN SOME AREAS.  THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS TO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE MID 30S...AND MAY SEE MORE
MIXED PRECIPITATION THAN OTHER AREAS.  STILL...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH OF A MIX...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AND LIGHT COATING OF
ICE... WHERE SOME ADVISORY HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IN
MANY AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WE STILL HAVE A
LITTLE TIME TO ZERO IN ON THE SPECIFICS BEFORE CONSIDERING HEADLINES
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AND
BASED ON THE DIRECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED MULTI BANDS EXTENDING TO
AROUND THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. SOME UPSLOPE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
TACONICS TO SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. THERE
COULD ALSO BE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT GRAZES THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WITH SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30...BUT TENS IN THE NORTH.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...BUT
SOME SIGNALS OF SOME MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. THERE COLD
BE SOME INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
SATURDAY WITH THE WARM ADVECTION. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 20S...WITH
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 30S...WITH 20S IN
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL VARY FROM LOW VFR AT KGFL...TO MVFR/IFR AT
KALB/KPSF/KPOU IN THE LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE CIGS ARE
MAINLY MVFR...BUT VSBYS ARE FLUCTUATING BETWEEN MVFR/IFR LEVELS.
THE LIGHT SNOW WILL GET INTO KGFL BTWN 18Z-21Z/SUN. SOME VERY
BRIEF BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOW MAY GET INTO KPOU/KPSF. THE MAIN SFC
LOW WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS MOST OF THE SNOWFALL.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE BTWN 04Z-07Z/MON. THE
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM IFR/MVFR LEVELS TO VFR
LEVELS BY 11Z-13Z/MON. KPSF WILL HAVE A CHC TO CONTINUE HIGH MVFR
CIGS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE W TO NW AT 10-15 KTS BY
DAYBREAK TOMORROW.

S TO SE WINDS OF 5-12 KTS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE DIRECTION EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS
WILL INITIALLY SHIFT TO SW TO W AT 10 KTS OR LESS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...11Z-14Z/MON THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS FROM
THE W/NW WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...11/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 011806
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
106 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

AS OF 1215 PM EST...SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW HAS REACHED ALL BUT THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FA. THE COLUMN IS STILL
SATURATING WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SHORT-WAVE IN THE
W/SW FLOW ALOFT...AND THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE TN/OH VALLEY. THE
12Z KALY SOUNDING SHOWS ALL THE DRY AIR BELOW 750 HPA. HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3-4 DEGREES DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN
PLACE...AND THE ONSET OF THE SNOWFALL. LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/SE CATSKILLS/NW CT WE HAVE INCREASED THE POPS DUE TO THE
RADAR TRENDS. BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON THE VIRGA WILL BE
LESS...AND LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
AREA.

THE SYSTEM IS VERY PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE FAST-MOVING FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT AND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE BEING AN OPEN WAVE.
STEADY SNOW SHOULD END A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY.

WE ARE STILL FORECASTING GENERALLY 3 TO 6 INCHES WITHIN THE CURRENT
ADVISORY AREA...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
REGARDS TO THE QPF...WITH THE NAM SHOWING SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS AS
IT IS INDICATING SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AS A
RESULT...THE NAM IS ALSO SHOWING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SNOW GROWTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR AREA...BUT THE GFS IS NOT AS
ROBUST. KEEPING THIS POTENTIAL IN MIND...WE ARE THINKING THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHER END SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 6 INCHES WILL
BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES IN
NY...AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A 13 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIO...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD VARY ACROSS THE AREA.

EVEN THOUGH STEADY SNOW TAPERS OFF EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA. DESPITE
LIMITED WARMING INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND EVEN MID
30S SOUTH...THE PERSISTENT WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER. WIND GUSTS
OF 30-40 MPH WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND FAVORED W-E ORIENTED VALLEYS. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND INTO SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS WITHIN THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS.

BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING THE FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE
ANTICYCLONIC...WHICH SHOULD RAPIDLY SHUT DOWN THE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP
SNOWPACK IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AS
A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE...WITH A S-SW LOW LEVEL
DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE SPED UP THE
TIMING AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. THE NAM
IS LAGGING BEHIND IN TERMS OF TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP...BUT WILL
SIDE TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS/ECMWF TIMING AND MENTION LIKELY POPS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NY ZONES AND CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE WARMING ALOFT LATE IN THE
DAY...BUT WITH THE WARM NOSE STILL BELOW FREEZING WILL MENTION ALL
SNOW THROUGH 6 PM WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONSENSUS AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM GUIDANCE CONTINUES FOR A
MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. STILL
SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION GETS
SINCE THERE IS STILL A SPREAD AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE ABOVE FREEZING
LAYER ALOFT GETS.  THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THE WARMING ALOFT
WILL BE OF A VERY SHORT DURATION... AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL SHIFT EAST QUICKLY ALLOWING COLD ADVECTION TO SPREAD
INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

BASED ON THE SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT SHIFTING
TO WEST AND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION THAT
OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY RAPIDLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A LINE OR BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

SO...SNOW EARLY TUESDAY EVENING CHANGES TO A PERIOD OF MIX OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF COLD RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ONCE THE COVERAGE OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDS AND THE
WINDS BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST...THE MIXING COULD THEN AID
TEMPERATURES IN CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 30S...AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S
IN SOME AREAS.  THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS TO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE MID 30S...AND MAY SEE MORE
MIXED PRECIPITATION THAN OTHER AREAS.  STILL...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH OF A MIX...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AND LIGHT COATING OF
ICE... WHERE SOME ADVISORY HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IN
MANY AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WE STILL HAVE A
LITTLE TIME TO ZERO IN ON THE SPECIFICS BEFORE CONSIDERING HEADLINES
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AND
BASED ON THE DIRECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED MULTI BANDS EXTENDING TO
AROUND THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. SOME UPSLOPE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
TACONICS TO SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. THERE
COULD ALSO BE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT GRAZES THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WITH SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30...BUT TENS IN THE NORTH.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...BUT
SOME SIGNALS OF SOME MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. THERE COLD
BE SOME INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
SATURDAY WITH THE WARM ADVECTION. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 20S...WITH
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 30S...WITH 20S IN
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL VARY FROM LOW VFR AT KGFL...TO MVFR/IFR AT
KALB/KPSF/KPOU IN THE LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE CIGS ARE
MAINLY MVFR...BUT VSBYS ARE FLUCTUATING BETWEEN MVFR/IFR LEVELS.
THE LIGHT SNOW WILL GET INTO KGFL BTWN 18Z-21Z/SUN. SOME VERY
BRIEF BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOW MAY GET INTO KPOU/KPSF. THE MAIN SFC
LOW WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS MOST OF THE SNOWFALL.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE BTWN 04Z-07Z/MON. THE
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM IFR/MVFR LEVELS TO VFR
LEVELS BY 11Z-13Z/MON. KPSF WILL HAVE A CHC TO CONTINUE HIGH MVFR
CIGS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE W TO NW AT 10-15 KTS BY
DAYBREAK TOMORROW.

S TO SE WINDS OF 5-12 KTS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE DIRECTION EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS
WILL INITIALLY SHIFT TO SW TO W AT 10 KTS OR LESS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...11Z-14Z/MON THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS FROM
THE W/NW WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...11/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 011806
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
106 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

AS OF 1215 PM EST...SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW HAS REACHED ALL BUT THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FA. THE COLUMN IS STILL
SATURATING WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SHORT-WAVE IN THE
W/SW FLOW ALOFT...AND THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE TN/OH VALLEY. THE
12Z KALY SOUNDING SHOWS ALL THE DRY AIR BELOW 750 HPA. HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3-4 DEGREES DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN
PLACE...AND THE ONSET OF THE SNOWFALL. LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/SE CATSKILLS/NW CT WE HAVE INCREASED THE POPS DUE TO THE
RADAR TRENDS. BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON THE VIRGA WILL BE
LESS...AND LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
AREA.

THE SYSTEM IS VERY PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE FAST-MOVING FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT AND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE BEING AN OPEN WAVE.
STEADY SNOW SHOULD END A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY.

WE ARE STILL FORECASTING GENERALLY 3 TO 6 INCHES WITHIN THE CURRENT
ADVISORY AREA...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
REGARDS TO THE QPF...WITH THE NAM SHOWING SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS AS
IT IS INDICATING SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AS A
RESULT...THE NAM IS ALSO SHOWING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SNOW GROWTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR AREA...BUT THE GFS IS NOT AS
ROBUST. KEEPING THIS POTENTIAL IN MIND...WE ARE THINKING THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHER END SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 6 INCHES WILL
BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES IN
NY...AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A 13 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIO...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD VARY ACROSS THE AREA.

EVEN THOUGH STEADY SNOW TAPERS OFF EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA. DESPITE
LIMITED WARMING INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND EVEN MID
30S SOUTH...THE PERSISTENT WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER. WIND GUSTS
OF 30-40 MPH WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND FAVORED W-E ORIENTED VALLEYS. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND INTO SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS WITHIN THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS.

BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING THE FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE
ANTICYCLONIC...WHICH SHOULD RAPIDLY SHUT DOWN THE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP
SNOWPACK IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AS
A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE...WITH A S-SW LOW LEVEL
DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE SPED UP THE
TIMING AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. THE NAM
IS LAGGING BEHIND IN TERMS OF TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP...BUT WILL
SIDE TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS/ECMWF TIMING AND MENTION LIKELY POPS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NY ZONES AND CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE WARMING ALOFT LATE IN THE
DAY...BUT WITH THE WARM NOSE STILL BELOW FREEZING WILL MENTION ALL
SNOW THROUGH 6 PM WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONSENSUS AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM GUIDANCE CONTINUES FOR A
MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. STILL
SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION GETS
SINCE THERE IS STILL A SPREAD AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE ABOVE FREEZING
LAYER ALOFT GETS.  THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THE WARMING ALOFT
WILL BE OF A VERY SHORT DURATION... AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL SHIFT EAST QUICKLY ALLOWING COLD ADVECTION TO SPREAD
INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

BASED ON THE SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT SHIFTING
TO WEST AND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION THAT
OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY RAPIDLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A LINE OR BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

SO...SNOW EARLY TUESDAY EVENING CHANGES TO A PERIOD OF MIX OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF COLD RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ONCE THE COVERAGE OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDS AND THE
WINDS BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST...THE MIXING COULD THEN AID
TEMPERATURES IN CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 30S...AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S
IN SOME AREAS.  THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS TO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE MID 30S...AND MAY SEE MORE
MIXED PRECIPITATION THAN OTHER AREAS.  STILL...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH OF A MIX...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AND LIGHT COATING OF
ICE... WHERE SOME ADVISORY HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IN
MANY AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WE STILL HAVE A
LITTLE TIME TO ZERO IN ON THE SPECIFICS BEFORE CONSIDERING HEADLINES
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AND
BASED ON THE DIRECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED MULTI BANDS EXTENDING TO
AROUND THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. SOME UPSLOPE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
TACONICS TO SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. THERE
COULD ALSO BE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT GRAZES THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WITH SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30...BUT TENS IN THE NORTH.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...BUT
SOME SIGNALS OF SOME MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. THERE COLD
BE SOME INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
SATURDAY WITH THE WARM ADVECTION. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 20S...WITH
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 30S...WITH 20S IN
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL VARY FROM LOW VFR AT KGFL...TO MVFR/IFR AT
KALB/KPSF/KPOU IN THE LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE CIGS ARE
MAINLY MVFR...BUT VSBYS ARE FLUCTUATING BETWEEN MVFR/IFR LEVELS.
THE LIGHT SNOW WILL GET INTO KGFL BTWN 18Z-21Z/SUN. SOME VERY
BRIEF BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOW MAY GET INTO KPOU/KPSF. THE MAIN SFC
LOW WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS MOST OF THE SNOWFALL.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE BTWN 04Z-07Z/MON. THE
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM IFR/MVFR LEVELS TO VFR
LEVELS BY 11Z-13Z/MON. KPSF WILL HAVE A CHC TO CONTINUE HIGH MVFR
CIGS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE W TO NW AT 10-15 KTS BY
DAYBREAK TOMORROW.

S TO SE WINDS OF 5-12 KTS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE DIRECTION EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS
WILL INITIALLY SHIFT TO SW TO W AT 10 KTS OR LESS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...11Z-14Z/MON THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS FROM
THE W/NW WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...11/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 011806
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
106 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

AS OF 1215 PM EST...SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW HAS REACHED ALL BUT THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FA. THE COLUMN IS STILL
SATURATING WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SHORT-WAVE IN THE
W/SW FLOW ALOFT...AND THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE TN/OH VALLEY. THE
12Z KALY SOUNDING SHOWS ALL THE DRY AIR BELOW 750 HPA. HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3-4 DEGREES DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN
PLACE...AND THE ONSET OF THE SNOWFALL. LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/SE CATSKILLS/NW CT WE HAVE INCREASED THE POPS DUE TO THE
RADAR TRENDS. BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON THE VIRGA WILL BE
LESS...AND LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
AREA.

THE SYSTEM IS VERY PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE FAST-MOVING FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT AND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE BEING AN OPEN WAVE.
STEADY SNOW SHOULD END A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY.

WE ARE STILL FORECASTING GENERALLY 3 TO 6 INCHES WITHIN THE CURRENT
ADVISORY AREA...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
REGARDS TO THE QPF...WITH THE NAM SHOWING SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS AS
IT IS INDICATING SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AS A
RESULT...THE NAM IS ALSO SHOWING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SNOW GROWTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR AREA...BUT THE GFS IS NOT AS
ROBUST. KEEPING THIS POTENTIAL IN MIND...WE ARE THINKING THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHER END SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 6 INCHES WILL
BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES IN
NY...AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A 13 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIO...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD VARY ACROSS THE AREA.

EVEN THOUGH STEADY SNOW TAPERS OFF EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA. DESPITE
LIMITED WARMING INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND EVEN MID
30S SOUTH...THE PERSISTENT WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER. WIND GUSTS
OF 30-40 MPH WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND FAVORED W-E ORIENTED VALLEYS. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND INTO SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS WITHIN THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS.

BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING THE FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE
ANTICYCLONIC...WHICH SHOULD RAPIDLY SHUT DOWN THE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP
SNOWPACK IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AS
A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE...WITH A S-SW LOW LEVEL
DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE SPED UP THE
TIMING AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. THE NAM
IS LAGGING BEHIND IN TERMS OF TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP...BUT WILL
SIDE TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS/ECMWF TIMING AND MENTION LIKELY POPS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NY ZONES AND CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE WARMING ALOFT LATE IN THE
DAY...BUT WITH THE WARM NOSE STILL BELOW FREEZING WILL MENTION ALL
SNOW THROUGH 6 PM WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONSENSUS AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM GUIDANCE CONTINUES FOR A
MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. STILL
SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION GETS
SINCE THERE IS STILL A SPREAD AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE ABOVE FREEZING
LAYER ALOFT GETS.  THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THE WARMING ALOFT
WILL BE OF A VERY SHORT DURATION... AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL SHIFT EAST QUICKLY ALLOWING COLD ADVECTION TO SPREAD
INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

BASED ON THE SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT SHIFTING
TO WEST AND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION THAT
OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY RAPIDLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A LINE OR BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

SO...SNOW EARLY TUESDAY EVENING CHANGES TO A PERIOD OF MIX OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF COLD RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ONCE THE COVERAGE OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDS AND THE
WINDS BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST...THE MIXING COULD THEN AID
TEMPERATURES IN CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 30S...AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S
IN SOME AREAS.  THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS TO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE MID 30S...AND MAY SEE MORE
MIXED PRECIPITATION THAN OTHER AREAS.  STILL...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH OF A MIX...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AND LIGHT COATING OF
ICE... WHERE SOME ADVISORY HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IN
MANY AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WE STILL HAVE A
LITTLE TIME TO ZERO IN ON THE SPECIFICS BEFORE CONSIDERING HEADLINES
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AND
BASED ON THE DIRECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED MULTI BANDS EXTENDING TO
AROUND THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. SOME UPSLOPE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
TACONICS TO SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. THERE
COULD ALSO BE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT GRAZES THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WITH SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30...BUT TENS IN THE NORTH.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...BUT
SOME SIGNALS OF SOME MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. THERE COLD
BE SOME INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
SATURDAY WITH THE WARM ADVECTION. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 20S...WITH
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 30S...WITH 20S IN
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL VARY FROM LOW VFR AT KGFL...TO MVFR/IFR AT
KALB/KPSF/KPOU IN THE LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE CIGS ARE
MAINLY MVFR...BUT VSBYS ARE FLUCTUATING BETWEEN MVFR/IFR LEVELS.
THE LIGHT SNOW WILL GET INTO KGFL BTWN 18Z-21Z/SUN. SOME VERY
BRIEF BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOW MAY GET INTO KPOU/KPSF. THE MAIN SFC
LOW WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS MOST OF THE SNOWFALL.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE BTWN 04Z-07Z/MON. THE
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM IFR/MVFR LEVELS TO VFR
LEVELS BY 11Z-13Z/MON. KPSF WILL HAVE A CHC TO CONTINUE HIGH MVFR
CIGS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE W TO NW AT 10-15 KTS BY
DAYBREAK TOMORROW.

S TO SE WINDS OF 5-12 KTS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE DIRECTION EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS
WILL INITIALLY SHIFT TO SW TO W AT 10 KTS OR LESS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...11Z-14Z/MON THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS FROM
THE W/NW WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...11/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KBTV 011734
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1234 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES BACK OVER THE
AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1216 PM EST SUNDAY...ITS BECOMING MORE CLEAR THAT BAND OF
DEEPER MOISTURE/SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL TAKE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO ENHANCE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FURTHER NORTH AND DELIVER A
BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT. DRY AIR MASS
ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND THUS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
TIMING OF THE LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND FOCUSED MORE OF IT
TONIGHT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EST SUNDAY...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7AM. GENERALLY
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE THE ONLY FORECAST PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY...FLOW WILL VEER
TO NORTHWESTERLY AND SOME UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...BEST
CHANCE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST FACING
SLOPES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH
RELATIVELY MILD DAYTIME HOURS...MAYBE A DEGREE HIGHER THAN SUNDAY.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. VERY
COLD TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. ASIDE FROM TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY EVENING UP THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR
0.75 INCHES. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SLATED TO OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG
WARM WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE INTRUSION OF WARMER AIR WILL MAKE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AS IF MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING INITIAL BURST OF OVERRUNNING
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WEDNESDAY...IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH SEVERAL
INCHES EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST JET OF AROUND 50 KNOTS AT 850 MB WILL
BRING IN WARMER AIR OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND 0C NORTHERN AREAS AND TO +2-3C SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOWARDS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AS IF ANY ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND
SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS REGION...WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND LOWER TEENS BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOOK FOR DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS
MODERATE NEXT SATURDAY BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...AND THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...CURRENT IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A
STRONG CLOUD HAS BUILT IN OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS MORNING AND
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA CEILINGS SHOULD
BEGIN TO COME DOWN STILL UNDER VFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 20Z- 01Z TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW FOR
KMSS/KSLK/KMPV. RIGHT NOW THE BAND OF MOISTURE OVER KRUT IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ALREADY CAUSING IFR VISIBILITY AT
SURROUNDING SITES. EXPECT BRIEF OF AND ON IFR VISIBILITY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE BEFORE DROPPING TO IFR FOR THE DURATION OF
THE EVENING BY AROUND 00Z. LONG DURATION IFR IS NOT EXPECTED AT
KPBG/KBTV DUE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND 02-04Z
AND CONTINUING THROUGH 12-14Z. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL STRENGTHEN
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT KBTV
AND KPBG. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 09Z MONDAY EXCEPTED
FOR KMSS WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS ORIENTED
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS. GREATEST CHANCE OF IFR AT KMPV/KSLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...DEAL



000
FXUS61 KBTV 011734
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1234 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES BACK OVER THE
AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1216 PM EST SUNDAY...ITS BECOMING MORE CLEAR THAT BAND OF
DEEPER MOISTURE/SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL TAKE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO ENHANCE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FURTHER NORTH AND DELIVER A
BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT. DRY AIR MASS
ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND THUS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
TIMING OF THE LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND FOCUSED MORE OF IT
TONIGHT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EST SUNDAY...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7AM. GENERALLY
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE THE ONLY FORECAST PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY...FLOW WILL VEER
TO NORTHWESTERLY AND SOME UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...BEST
CHANCE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST FACING
SLOPES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH
RELATIVELY MILD DAYTIME HOURS...MAYBE A DEGREE HIGHER THAN SUNDAY.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. VERY
COLD TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. ASIDE FROM TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY EVENING UP THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR
0.75 INCHES. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SLATED TO OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG
WARM WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE INTRUSION OF WARMER AIR WILL MAKE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AS IF MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING INITIAL BURST OF OVERRUNNING
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WEDNESDAY...IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH SEVERAL
INCHES EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST JET OF AROUND 50 KNOTS AT 850 MB WILL
BRING IN WARMER AIR OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND 0C NORTHERN AREAS AND TO +2-3C SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOWARDS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AS IF ANY ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND
SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS REGION...WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND LOWER TEENS BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOOK FOR DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS
MODERATE NEXT SATURDAY BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...AND THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...CURRENT IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A
STRONG CLOUD HAS BUILT IN OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS MORNING AND
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA CEILINGS SHOULD
BEGIN TO COME DOWN STILL UNDER VFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 20Z- 01Z TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW FOR
KMSS/KSLK/KMPV. RIGHT NOW THE BAND OF MOISTURE OVER KRUT IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ALREADY CAUSING IFR VISIBILITY AT
SURROUNDING SITES. EXPECT BRIEF OF AND ON IFR VISIBILITY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE BEFORE DROPPING TO IFR FOR THE DURATION OF
THE EVENING BY AROUND 00Z. LONG DURATION IFR IS NOT EXPECTED AT
KPBG/KBTV DUE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND 02-04Z
AND CONTINUING THROUGH 12-14Z. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL STRENGTHEN
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT KBTV
AND KPBG. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 09Z MONDAY EXCEPTED
FOR KMSS WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS ORIENTED
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS. GREATEST CHANCE OF IFR AT KMPV/KSLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...DEAL



000
FXUS61 KBTV 011734
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1234 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES BACK OVER THE
AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1216 PM EST SUNDAY...ITS BECOMING MORE CLEAR THAT BAND OF
DEEPER MOISTURE/SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL TAKE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO ENHANCE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FURTHER NORTH AND DELIVER A
BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT. DRY AIR MASS
ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND THUS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
TIMING OF THE LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND FOCUSED MORE OF IT
TONIGHT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EST SUNDAY...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7AM. GENERALLY
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE THE ONLY FORECAST PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY...FLOW WILL VEER
TO NORTHWESTERLY AND SOME UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...BEST
CHANCE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST FACING
SLOPES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH
RELATIVELY MILD DAYTIME HOURS...MAYBE A DEGREE HIGHER THAN SUNDAY.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. VERY
COLD TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. ASIDE FROM TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY EVENING UP THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR
0.75 INCHES. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SLATED TO OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG
WARM WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE INTRUSION OF WARMER AIR WILL MAKE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AS IF MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING INITIAL BURST OF OVERRUNNING
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WEDNESDAY...IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH SEVERAL
INCHES EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST JET OF AROUND 50 KNOTS AT 850 MB WILL
BRING IN WARMER AIR OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND 0C NORTHERN AREAS AND TO +2-3C SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOWARDS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AS IF ANY ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND
SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS REGION...WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND LOWER TEENS BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOOK FOR DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS
MODERATE NEXT SATURDAY BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...AND THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...CURRENT IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A
STRONG CLOUD HAS BUILT IN OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS MORNING AND
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA CEILINGS SHOULD
BEGIN TO COME DOWN STILL UNDER VFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 20Z- 01Z TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW FOR
KMSS/KSLK/KMPV. RIGHT NOW THE BAND OF MOISTURE OVER KRUT IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ALREADY CAUSING IFR VISIBILITY AT
SURROUNDING SITES. EXPECT BRIEF OF AND ON IFR VISIBILITY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE BEFORE DROPPING TO IFR FOR THE DURATION OF
THE EVENING BY AROUND 00Z. LONG DURATION IFR IS NOT EXPECTED AT
KPBG/KBTV DUE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND 02-04Z
AND CONTINUING THROUGH 12-14Z. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL STRENGTHEN
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT KBTV
AND KPBG. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 09Z MONDAY EXCEPTED
FOR KMSS WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS ORIENTED
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS. GREATEST CHANCE OF IFR AT KMPV/KSLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...DEAL



000
FXUS61 KBTV 011734
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1234 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES BACK OVER THE
AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1216 PM EST SUNDAY...ITS BECOMING MORE CLEAR THAT BAND OF
DEEPER MOISTURE/SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL TAKE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO ENHANCE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FURTHER NORTH AND DELIVER A
BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT. DRY AIR MASS
ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND THUS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
TIMING OF THE LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND FOCUSED MORE OF IT
TONIGHT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EST SUNDAY...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7AM. GENERALLY
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE THE ONLY FORECAST PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY...FLOW WILL VEER
TO NORTHWESTERLY AND SOME UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...BEST
CHANCE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST FACING
SLOPES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH
RELATIVELY MILD DAYTIME HOURS...MAYBE A DEGREE HIGHER THAN SUNDAY.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. VERY
COLD TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. ASIDE FROM TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY EVENING UP THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR
0.75 INCHES. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SLATED TO OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG
WARM WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE INTRUSION OF WARMER AIR WILL MAKE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AS IF MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING INITIAL BURST OF OVERRUNNING
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WEDNESDAY...IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH SEVERAL
INCHES EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST JET OF AROUND 50 KNOTS AT 850 MB WILL
BRING IN WARMER AIR OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND 0C NORTHERN AREAS AND TO +2-3C SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOWARDS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AS IF ANY ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND
SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS REGION...WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND LOWER TEENS BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOOK FOR DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS
MODERATE NEXT SATURDAY BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...AND THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...CURRENT IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A
STRONG CLOUD HAS BUILT IN OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS MORNING AND
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA CEILINGS SHOULD
BEGIN TO COME DOWN STILL UNDER VFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 20Z- 01Z TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW FOR
KMSS/KSLK/KMPV. RIGHT NOW THE BAND OF MOISTURE OVER KRUT IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ALREADY CAUSING IFR VISIBILITY AT
SURROUNDING SITES. EXPECT BRIEF OF AND ON IFR VISIBILITY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE BEFORE DROPPING TO IFR FOR THE DURATION OF
THE EVENING BY AROUND 00Z. LONG DURATION IFR IS NOT EXPECTED AT
KPBG/KBTV DUE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND 02-04Z
AND CONTINUING THROUGH 12-14Z. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL STRENGTHEN
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT KBTV
AND KPBG. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 09Z MONDAY EXCEPTED
FOR KMSS WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS ORIENTED
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS. GREATEST CHANCE OF IFR AT KMPV/KSLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...DEAL



000
FXUS61 KBTV 011734
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1234 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES BACK OVER THE
AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1216 PM EST SUNDAY...ITS BECOMING MORE CLEAR THAT BAND OF
DEEPER MOISTURE/SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL TAKE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO ENHANCE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FURTHER NORTH AND DELIVER A
BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT. DRY AIR MASS
ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND THUS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
TIMING OF THE LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND FOCUSED MORE OF IT
TONIGHT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EST SUNDAY...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7AM. GENERALLY
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE THE ONLY FORECAST PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY...FLOW WILL VEER
TO NORTHWESTERLY AND SOME UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...BEST
CHANCE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST FACING
SLOPES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH
RELATIVELY MILD DAYTIME HOURS...MAYBE A DEGREE HIGHER THAN SUNDAY.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. VERY
COLD TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. ASIDE FROM TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY EVENING UP THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR
0.75 INCHES. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SLATED TO OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG
WARM WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE INTRUSION OF WARMER AIR WILL MAKE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AS IF MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING INITIAL BURST OF OVERRUNNING
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WEDNESDAY...IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH SEVERAL
INCHES EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST JET OF AROUND 50 KNOTS AT 850 MB WILL
BRING IN WARMER AIR OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND 0C NORTHERN AREAS AND TO +2-3C SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOWARDS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AS IF ANY ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND
SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS REGION...WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND LOWER TEENS BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOOK FOR DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS
MODERATE NEXT SATURDAY BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...AND THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...CURRENT IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A
STRONG CLOUD HAS BUILT IN OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS MORNING AND
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA CEILINGS SHOULD
BEGIN TO COME DOWN STILL UNDER VFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 20Z- 01Z TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW FOR
KMSS/KSLK/KMPV. RIGHT NOW THE BAND OF MOISTURE OVER KRUT IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ALREADY CAUSING IFR VISIBILITY AT
SURROUNDING SITES. EXPECT BRIEF OF AND ON IFR VISIBILITY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE BEFORE DROPPING TO IFR FOR THE DURATION OF
THE EVENING BY AROUND 00Z. LONG DURATION IFR IS NOT EXPECTED AT
KPBG/KBTV DUE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND 02-04Z
AND CONTINUING THROUGH 12-14Z. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL STRENGTHEN
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT KBTV
AND KPBG. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 09Z MONDAY EXCEPTED
FOR KMSS WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS ORIENTED
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS. GREATEST CHANCE OF IFR AT KMPV/KSLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011734 CCA
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1234 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES BACK OVER THE
AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1216 PM EST SUNDAY...ITS BECOMING MORE CLEAR THAT BAND OF
DEEPER MOISTURE/SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL TAKE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO ENHANCE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FURTHER NORTH AND DELIVER A
BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT. DRY AIR MASS
ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND THUS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
TIMING OF THE LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND FOCUSED MORE OF IT
TONIGHT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EST SUNDAY...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7AM. GENERALLY
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE THE ONLY FORECAST PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY...FLOW WILL VEER
TO NORTHWESTERLY AND SOME UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...BEST
CHANCE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST FACING
SLOPES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH
RELATIVELY MILD DAYTIME HOURS...MAYBE A DEGREE HIGHER THAN SUNDAY.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. VERY
COLD TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. ASIDE FROM TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY EVENING UP THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR
0.75 INCHES. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SLATED TO OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG
WARM WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE INTRUSION OF WARMER AIR WILL MAKE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AS IF MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING INITIAL BURST OF OVERRUNNING
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WEDNESDAY...IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH SEVERAL
INCHES EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST JET OF AROUND 50 KNOTS AT 850 MB WILL
BRING IN WARMER AIR OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND 0C NORTHERN AREAS AND TO +2-3C SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOWARDS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AS IF ANY ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND
SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS REGION...WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND LOWER TEENS BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOOK FOR DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS
MODERATE NEXT SATURDAY BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...AND THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...CURRENT IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A
STRONG CLOUD HAS BUILT IN OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS MORNING AND
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA CEILINGS SHOULD
BEGIN TO COME DOWN STILL UNDER VFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 20Z- 01Z TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW FOR
KMSS/KSLK/KMPV. RIGHT NOW THE BAND OF MOISTURE OVER KRUT IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ALREADY CAUSING IFR VISIBILITY AT
SURROUNDING SITES. EXPECT BRIEF OFF AND ON IFR VISIBILITY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE BEFORE DROPPING TO IFR FOR THE DURATION OF
THE EVENING BY AROUND 00Z. LONG DURATION IFR IS NOT EXPECTED AT
KPBG/KBTV DUE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND 02-04Z
AND CONTINUING THROUGH 12-14Z. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL STRENGTHEN
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT KBTV
AND KPBG. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 09Z MONDAY EXCEPTED
FOR KMSS WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS ORIENTED
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS. GREATEST CHANCE OF IFR AT KMPV/KSLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...DEAL



000
FXUS61 KBTV 011734 CCA
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1234 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES BACK OVER THE
AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1216 PM EST SUNDAY...ITS BECOMING MORE CLEAR THAT BAND OF
DEEPER MOISTURE/SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL TAKE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO ENHANCE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FURTHER NORTH AND DELIVER A
BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT. DRY AIR MASS
ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND THUS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
TIMING OF THE LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND FOCUSED MORE OF IT
TONIGHT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EST SUNDAY...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7AM. GENERALLY
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE THE ONLY FORECAST PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY...FLOW WILL VEER
TO NORTHWESTERLY AND SOME UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...BEST
CHANCE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST FACING
SLOPES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH
RELATIVELY MILD DAYTIME HOURS...MAYBE A DEGREE HIGHER THAN SUNDAY.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. VERY
COLD TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. ASIDE FROM TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY EVENING UP THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR
0.75 INCHES. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SLATED TO OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG
WARM WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE INTRUSION OF WARMER AIR WILL MAKE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AS IF MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING INITIAL BURST OF OVERRUNNING
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WEDNESDAY...IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH SEVERAL
INCHES EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST JET OF AROUND 50 KNOTS AT 850 MB WILL
BRING IN WARMER AIR OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND 0C NORTHERN AREAS AND TO +2-3C SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOWARDS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AS IF ANY ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND
SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS REGION...WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND LOWER TEENS BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOOK FOR DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS
MODERATE NEXT SATURDAY BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...AND THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...CURRENT IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A
STRONG CLOUD HAS BUILT IN OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS MORNING AND
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA CEILINGS SHOULD
BEGIN TO COME DOWN STILL UNDER VFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 20Z- 01Z TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW FOR
KMSS/KSLK/KMPV. RIGHT NOW THE BAND OF MOISTURE OVER KRUT IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ALREADY CAUSING IFR VISIBILITY AT
SURROUNDING SITES. EXPECT BRIEF OFF AND ON IFR VISIBILITY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE BEFORE DROPPING TO IFR FOR THE DURATION OF
THE EVENING BY AROUND 00Z. LONG DURATION IFR IS NOT EXPECTED AT
KPBG/KBTV DUE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND 02-04Z
AND CONTINUING THROUGH 12-14Z. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL STRENGTHEN
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT KBTV
AND KPBG. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 09Z MONDAY EXCEPTED
FOR KMSS WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS ORIENTED
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS. GREATEST CHANCE OF IFR AT KMPV/KSLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...DEAL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011734
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1234 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES BACK OVER THE
AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1216 PM EST SUNDAY...ITS BECOMING MORE CLEAR THAT BAND OF
DEEPER MOISTURE/SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL TAKE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO ENHANCE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FURTHER NORTH AND DELIVER A
BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT. DRY AIR MASS
ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND THUS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
TIMING OF THE LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND FOCUSED MORE OF IT
TONIGHT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EST SUNDAY...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7AM. GENERALLY
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE THE ONLY FORECAST PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY...FLOW WILL VEER
TO NORTHWESTERLY AND SOME UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...BEST
CHANCE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST FACING
SLOPES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH
RELATIVELY MILD DAYTIME HOURS...MAYBE A DEGREE HIGHER THAN SUNDAY.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. VERY
COLD TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. ASIDE FROM TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY EVENING UP THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR
0.75 INCHES. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SLATED TO OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG
WARM WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE INTRUSION OF WARMER AIR WILL MAKE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AS IF MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING INITIAL BURST OF OVERRUNNING
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WEDNESDAY...IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH SEVERAL
INCHES EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST JET OF AROUND 50 KNOTS AT 850 MB WILL
BRING IN WARMER AIR OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND 0C NORTHERN AREAS AND TO +2-3C SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOWARDS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AS IF ANY ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND
SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS REGION...WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND LOWER TEENS BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOOK FOR DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS
MODERATE NEXT SATURDAY BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...AND THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...CURRENT IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A
STRONG CLOUD HAS BUILT IN OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS MORNING AND
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA CEILINGS SHOULD
BEGIN TO COME DOWN STILL UNDER VFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 20Z- 01Z TO MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW FOR
KMSS/KSLK/KMPV. RIGHT NOW THE BAND OF MOISTURE OVER KRUT IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ALREADY CAUSING IFR VISIBILITY AT
SURROUNDING SITES. EXPECT BRIEF OF AND ON IFR VISIBILITY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE BEFORE DROPPING TO IFR FOR THE DURATION OF
THE EVENING BY AROUND 00Z. LONG DURATION IFR IS NOT EXPECTED AT
KPBG/KBTV DUE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND 02-04Z
AND CONTINUING THROUGH 12-14Z. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL STRENGTHEN
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT KBTV
AND KPBG. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 09Z MONDAY EXCEPTED
FOR KMSS WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS ORIENTED
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS. GREATEST CHANCE OF IFR AT KMPV/KSLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...DEAL



000
FXUS61 KALY 011716
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1216 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

AS OF 1215 PM EST...SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW HAS REACHED ALL BUT THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FA. THE COLUMN IS STILL
SATURATING WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SHORT-WAVE IN THE
W/SW FLOW ALOFT...AND THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE TN/OH VALLEY. THE
12Z KALY SOUNDING SHOWS ALL THE DRY AIR BELOW 750 HPA. HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3-4 DEGREES DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN
PLACE...AND THE ONSET OF THE SNOWFALL. LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/SE CATSKILLS/NW CT WE HAVE INCREASED THE POPS DUE TO THE
RADAR TRENDS. BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON THE VIRGA WILL BE
LESS...AND LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
AREA.

THE SYSTEM IS VERY PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE FAST-MOVING FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT AND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE BEING AN OPEN WAVE.
STEADY SNOW SHOULD END A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY.

WE ARE STILL FORECASTING GENERALLY 3 TO 6 INCHES WITHIN THE CURRENT
ADVISORY AREA...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
REGARDS TO THE QPF...WITH THE NAM SHOWING SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS AS
IT IS INDICATING SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AS A
RESULT...THE NAM IS ALSO SHOWING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SNOW GROWTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR AREA...BUT THE GFS IS NOT AS
ROBUST. KEEPING THIS POTENTIAL IN MIND...WE ARE THINKING THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHER END SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 6 INCHES WILL
BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES IN
NY...AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A 13 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIO...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD VARY ACROSS THE AREA.

EVEN THOUGH STEADY SNOW TAPERS OFF EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA. DESPITE
LIMITED WARMING INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND EVEN MID
30S SOUTH...THE PERSISTENT WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER. WIND GUSTS
OF 30-40 MPH WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND FAVORED W-E ORIENTED VALLEYS. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND INTO SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS WITHIN THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS.

BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING THE FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE
ANTICYCLONIC...WHICH SHOULD RAPIDLY SHUT DOWN THE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP
SNOWPACK IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AS
A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE...WITH A S-SW LOW LEVEL
DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE SPED UP THE
TIMING AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. THE NAM
IS LAGGING BEHIND IN TERMS OF TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP...BUT WILL
SIDE TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS/ECMWF TIMING AND MENTION LIKELY POPS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NY ZONES AND CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE WARMING ALOFT LATE IN THE
DAY...BUT WITH THE WARM NOSE STILL BELOW FREEZING WILL MENTION ALL
SNOW THROUGH 6 PM WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONSENSUS AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM GUIDANCE CONTINUES FOR A
MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. STILL
SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION GETS
SINCE THERE IS STILL A SPREAD AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE ABOVE FREEZING
LAYER ALOFT GETS.  THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THE WARMING ALOFT
WILL BE OF A VERY SHORT DURATION... AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL SHIFT EAST QUICKLY ALLOWING COLD ADVECTION TO SPREAD
INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

BASED ON THE SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT SHIFTING
TO WEST AND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION THAT
OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY RAPIDLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A LINE OR BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

SO...SNOW EARLY TUESDAY EVENING CHANGES TO A PERIOD OF MIX OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF COLD RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ONCE THE COVERAGE OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDS AND THE
WINDS BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST...THE MIXING COULD THEN AID
TEMPERATURES IN CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 30S...AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S
IN SOME AREAS.  THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS TO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE MID 30S...AND MAY SEE MORE
MIXED PRECIPITATION THAN OTHER AREAS.  STILL...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH OF A MIX...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AND LIGHT COATING OF
ICE... WHERE SOME ADVISORY HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IN
MANY AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WE STILL HAVE A
LITTLE TIME TO ZERO IN ON THE SPECIFICS BEFORE CONSIDERING HEADLINES
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AND
BASED ON THE DIRECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED MULTI BANDS EXTENDING TO
AROUND THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. SOME UPSLOPE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
TACONICS TO SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. THERE
COULD ALSO BE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT GRAZES THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WITH SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30...BUT TENS IN THE NORTH.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...BUT
SOME SIGNALS OF SOME MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. THERE COLD
BE SOME INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
SATURDAY WITH THE WARM ADVECTION. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 20S...WITH
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 30S...WITH 20S IN
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...SPREADING CLOUDS...AND SNOW INTO THE REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z/TODAY.
THEREAFTER...AS INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
REGION...VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY IFR RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF
BETWEEN 07Z-09Z...AS VISIBILITIES BECOME VFR BUT CEILINGS REMAIN
MVFR. INCLUDING VCSH IN ALL TAFS AFTER 07Z-09Z SINCE THE SNOW MAY
TAKE SOME TIME TO EXIT.

CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
AT 5-10 KT THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...11/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KBTV 011716
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1216 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES BACK OVER THE
AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1216 PM EST SUNDAY...ITS BECOMING MORE CLEAR THAT BAND OF
DEEPER MOISTURE/SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL TAKE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO ENHANCE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FURTHER NORTH AND DELIVER A
BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT. DRY AIR MASS
ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND THUS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
TIMING OF THE LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND FOCUSED MORE OF IT
TONIGHT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EST SUNDAY...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7AM. GENERALLY
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE THE ONLY FORECAST PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY...FLOW WILL VEER
TO NORTHWESTERLY AND SOME UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...BEST
CHANCE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST FACING
SLOPES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH
RELATIVELY MILD DAYTIME HOURS...MAYBE A DEGREE HIGHER THAN SUNDAY.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. VERY
COLD TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. ASIDE FROM TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY EVENING UP THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR
0.75 INCHES. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SLATED TO OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG
WARM WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE INTRUSION OF WARMER AIR WILL MAKE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AS IF MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING INITIAL BURST OF OVERRUNNING
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WEDNESDAY...IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH SEVERAL
INCHES EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST JET OF AROUND 50 KNOTS AT 850 MB WILL
BRING IN WARMER AIR OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND 0C NORTHERN AREAS AND TO +2-3C SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOWARDS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AS IF ANY ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND
SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS REGION...WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND LOWER TEENS BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOOK FOR DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS
MODERATE NEXT SATURDAY BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...AND THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH LOWERING
VFR CEILINGS. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 17Z-20Z TO
MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. GREATEST IMPACTS AT RUT/MSS/SLK/MPV WITH LEAST AT PBG/BTV
DUE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL
STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS AT BTV. WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER 06Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

1Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS. GREATEST CHANCE OF IFR AT MPV/SLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 011716
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1216 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES BACK OVER THE
AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1216 PM EST SUNDAY...ITS BECOMING MORE CLEAR THAT BAND OF
DEEPER MOISTURE/SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL TAKE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO ENHANCE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FURTHER NORTH AND DELIVER A
BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT. DRY AIR MASS
ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND THUS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
TIMING OF THE LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND FOCUSED MORE OF IT
TONIGHT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EST SUNDAY...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7AM. GENERALLY
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE THE ONLY FORECAST PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY...FLOW WILL VEER
TO NORTHWESTERLY AND SOME UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...BEST
CHANCE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST FACING
SLOPES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH
RELATIVELY MILD DAYTIME HOURS...MAYBE A DEGREE HIGHER THAN SUNDAY.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. VERY
COLD TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. ASIDE FROM TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY EVENING UP THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR
0.75 INCHES. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SLATED TO OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG
WARM WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE INTRUSION OF WARMER AIR WILL MAKE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AS IF MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING INITIAL BURST OF OVERRUNNING
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WEDNESDAY...IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH SEVERAL
INCHES EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST JET OF AROUND 50 KNOTS AT 850 MB WILL
BRING IN WARMER AIR OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND 0C NORTHERN AREAS AND TO +2-3C SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOWARDS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AS IF ANY ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND
SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS REGION...WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND LOWER TEENS BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOOK FOR DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS
MODERATE NEXT SATURDAY BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...AND THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH LOWERING
VFR CEILINGS. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 17Z-20Z TO
MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. GREATEST IMPACTS AT RUT/MSS/SLK/MPV WITH LEAST AT PBG/BTV
DUE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL
STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS AT BTV. WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER 06Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

1Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS. GREATEST CHANCE OF IFR AT MPV/SLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KALY 011716
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1216 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

AS OF 1215 PM EST...SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW HAS REACHED ALL BUT THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FA. THE COLUMN IS STILL
SATURATING WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SHORT-WAVE IN THE
W/SW FLOW ALOFT...AND THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE TN/OH VALLEY. THE
12Z KALY SOUNDING SHOWS ALL THE DRY AIR BELOW 750 HPA. HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3-4 DEGREES DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN
PLACE...AND THE ONSET OF THE SNOWFALL. LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/SE CATSKILLS/NW CT WE HAVE INCREASED THE POPS DUE TO THE
RADAR TRENDS. BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON THE VIRGA WILL BE
LESS...AND LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
AREA.

THE SYSTEM IS VERY PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE FAST-MOVING FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT AND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE BEING AN OPEN WAVE.
STEADY SNOW SHOULD END A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY.

WE ARE STILL FORECASTING GENERALLY 3 TO 6 INCHES WITHIN THE CURRENT
ADVISORY AREA...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
REGARDS TO THE QPF...WITH THE NAM SHOWING SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS AS
IT IS INDICATING SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AS A
RESULT...THE NAM IS ALSO SHOWING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SNOW GROWTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR AREA...BUT THE GFS IS NOT AS
ROBUST. KEEPING THIS POTENTIAL IN MIND...WE ARE THINKING THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHER END SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 6 INCHES WILL
BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES IN
NY...AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A 13 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIO...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD VARY ACROSS THE AREA.

EVEN THOUGH STEADY SNOW TAPERS OFF EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA. DESPITE
LIMITED WARMING INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND EVEN MID
30S SOUTH...THE PERSISTENT WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER. WIND GUSTS
OF 30-40 MPH WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND FAVORED W-E ORIENTED VALLEYS. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND INTO SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS WITHIN THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS.

BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING THE FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE
ANTICYCLONIC...WHICH SHOULD RAPIDLY SHUT DOWN THE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP
SNOWPACK IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AS
A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE...WITH A S-SW LOW LEVEL
DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE SPED UP THE
TIMING AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. THE NAM
IS LAGGING BEHIND IN TERMS OF TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP...BUT WILL
SIDE TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS/ECMWF TIMING AND MENTION LIKELY POPS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NY ZONES AND CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE WARMING ALOFT LATE IN THE
DAY...BUT WITH THE WARM NOSE STILL BELOW FREEZING WILL MENTION ALL
SNOW THROUGH 6 PM WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONSENSUS AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM GUIDANCE CONTINUES FOR A
MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. STILL
SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION GETS
SINCE THERE IS STILL A SPREAD AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE ABOVE FREEZING
LAYER ALOFT GETS.  THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THE WARMING ALOFT
WILL BE OF A VERY SHORT DURATION... AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL SHIFT EAST QUICKLY ALLOWING COLD ADVECTION TO SPREAD
INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

BASED ON THE SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT SHIFTING
TO WEST AND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION THAT
OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY RAPIDLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A LINE OR BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

SO...SNOW EARLY TUESDAY EVENING CHANGES TO A PERIOD OF MIX OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF COLD RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ONCE THE COVERAGE OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDS AND THE
WINDS BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST...THE MIXING COULD THEN AID
TEMPERATURES IN CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 30S...AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S
IN SOME AREAS.  THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS TO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE MID 30S...AND MAY SEE MORE
MIXED PRECIPITATION THAN OTHER AREAS.  STILL...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH OF A MIX...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AND LIGHT COATING OF
ICE... WHERE SOME ADVISORY HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IN
MANY AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WE STILL HAVE A
LITTLE TIME TO ZERO IN ON THE SPECIFICS BEFORE CONSIDERING HEADLINES
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AND
BASED ON THE DIRECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED MULTI BANDS EXTENDING TO
AROUND THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. SOME UPSLOPE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
TACONICS TO SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. THERE
COULD ALSO BE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT GRAZES THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WITH SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30...BUT TENS IN THE NORTH.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...BUT
SOME SIGNALS OF SOME MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. THERE COLD
BE SOME INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
SATURDAY WITH THE WARM ADVECTION. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 20S...WITH
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 30S...WITH 20S IN
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...SPREADING CLOUDS...AND SNOW INTO THE REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z/TODAY.
THEREAFTER...AS INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
REGION...VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY IFR RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF
BETWEEN 07Z-09Z...AS VISIBILITIES BECOME VFR BUT CEILINGS REMAIN
MVFR. INCLUDING VCSH IN ALL TAFS AFTER 07Z-09Z SINCE THE SNOW MAY
TAKE SOME TIME TO EXIT.

CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
AT 5-10 KT THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...11/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 011716
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1216 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS UNTIL 700 AM MONDAY.

AS OF 1215 PM EST...SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW HAS REACHED ALL BUT THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FA. THE COLUMN IS STILL
SATURATING WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SHORT-WAVE IN THE
W/SW FLOW ALOFT...AND THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE TN/OH VALLEY. THE
12Z KALY SOUNDING SHOWS ALL THE DRY AIR BELOW 750 HPA. HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3-4 DEGREES DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN
PLACE...AND THE ONSET OF THE SNOWFALL. LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/SE CATSKILLS/NW CT WE HAVE INCREASED THE POPS DUE TO THE
RADAR TRENDS. BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON THE VIRGA WILL BE
LESS...AND LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
AREA.

THE SYSTEM IS VERY PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE FAST-MOVING FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT AND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE BEING AN OPEN WAVE.
STEADY SNOW SHOULD END A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY.

WE ARE STILL FORECASTING GENERALLY 3 TO 6 INCHES WITHIN THE CURRENT
ADVISORY AREA...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
REGARDS TO THE QPF...WITH THE NAM SHOWING SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS AS
IT IS INDICATING SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AS A
RESULT...THE NAM IS ALSO SHOWING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SNOW GROWTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR AREA...BUT THE GFS IS NOT AS
ROBUST. KEEPING THIS POTENTIAL IN MIND...WE ARE THINKING THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHER END SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 6 INCHES WILL
BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES IN
NY...AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A 13 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIO...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD VARY ACROSS THE AREA.

EVEN THOUGH STEADY SNOW TAPERS OFF EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA. DESPITE
LIMITED WARMING INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND EVEN MID
30S SOUTH...THE PERSISTENT WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER. WIND GUSTS
OF 30-40 MPH WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND FAVORED W-E ORIENTED VALLEYS. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND INTO SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS WITHIN THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS.

BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING THE FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE
ANTICYCLONIC...WHICH SHOULD RAPIDLY SHUT DOWN THE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP
SNOWPACK IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AS
A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE...WITH A S-SW LOW LEVEL
DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE SPED UP THE
TIMING AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. THE NAM
IS LAGGING BEHIND IN TERMS OF TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP...BUT WILL
SIDE TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS/ECMWF TIMING AND MENTION LIKELY POPS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NY ZONES AND CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE WARMING ALOFT LATE IN THE
DAY...BUT WITH THE WARM NOSE STILL BELOW FREEZING WILL MENTION ALL
SNOW THROUGH 6 PM WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONSENSUS AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM GUIDANCE CONTINUES FOR A
MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. STILL
SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION GETS
SINCE THERE IS STILL A SPREAD AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE ABOVE FREEZING
LAYER ALOFT GETS.  THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THE WARMING ALOFT
WILL BE OF A VERY SHORT DURATION... AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL SHIFT EAST QUICKLY ALLOWING COLD ADVECTION TO SPREAD
INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

BASED ON THE SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT SHIFTING
TO WEST AND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION THAT
OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY RAPIDLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A LINE OR BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

SO...SNOW EARLY TUESDAY EVENING CHANGES TO A PERIOD OF MIX OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF COLD RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ONCE THE COVERAGE OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDS AND THE
WINDS BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST...THE MIXING COULD THEN AID
TEMPERATURES IN CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 30S...AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S
IN SOME AREAS.  THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS TO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE MID 30S...AND MAY SEE MORE
MIXED PRECIPITATION THAN OTHER AREAS.  STILL...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH OF A MIX...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AND LIGHT COATING OF
ICE... WHERE SOME ADVISORY HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IN
MANY AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WE STILL HAVE A
LITTLE TIME TO ZERO IN ON THE SPECIFICS BEFORE CONSIDERING HEADLINES
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AND
BASED ON THE DIRECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED MULTI BANDS EXTENDING TO
AROUND THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. SOME UPSLOPE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
TACONICS TO SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. THERE
COULD ALSO BE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT GRAZES THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WITH SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30...BUT TENS IN THE NORTH.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...BUT
SOME SIGNALS OF SOME MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. THERE COLD
BE SOME INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
SATURDAY WITH THE WARM ADVECTION. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 20S...WITH
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 30S...WITH 20S IN
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...SPREADING CLOUDS...AND SNOW INTO THE REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z/TODAY.
THEREAFTER...AS INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
REGION...VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY IFR RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF
BETWEEN 07Z-09Z...AS VISIBILITIES BECOME VFR BUT CEILINGS REMAIN
MVFR. INCLUDING VCSH IN ALL TAFS AFTER 07Z-09Z SINCE THE SNOW MAY
TAKE SOME TIME TO EXIT.

CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
AT 5-10 KT THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...11/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011716
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1216 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES BACK OVER THE
AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1216 PM EST SUNDAY...ITS BECOMING MORE CLEAR THAT BAND OF
DEEPER MOISTURE/SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL TAKE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO ENHANCE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FURTHER NORTH AND DELIVER A
BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT. DRY AIR MASS
ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND THUS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
TIMING OF THE LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND FOCUSED MORE OF IT
TONIGHT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EST SUNDAY...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7AM. GENERALLY
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE THE ONLY FORECAST PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY...FLOW WILL VEER
TO NORTHWESTERLY AND SOME UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...BEST
CHANCE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST FACING
SLOPES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH
RELATIVELY MILD DAYTIME HOURS...MAYBE A DEGREE HIGHER THAN SUNDAY.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. VERY
COLD TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. ASIDE FROM TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY EVENING UP THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR
0.75 INCHES. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SLATED TO OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG
WARM WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE INTRUSION OF WARMER AIR WILL MAKE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AS IF MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING INITIAL BURST OF OVERRUNNING
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WEDNESDAY...IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH SEVERAL
INCHES EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST JET OF AROUND 50 KNOTS AT 850 MB WILL
BRING IN WARMER AIR OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND 0C NORTHERN AREAS AND TO +2-3C SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOWARDS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AS IF ANY ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND
SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS REGION...WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND LOWER TEENS BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOOK FOR DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS
MODERATE NEXT SATURDAY BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...AND THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH LOWERING
VFR CEILINGS. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 17Z-20Z TO
MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. GREATEST IMPACTS AT RUT/MSS/SLK/MPV WITH LEAST AT PBG/BTV
DUE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL
STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS AT BTV. WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER 06Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

1Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS. GREATEST CHANCE OF IFR AT MPV/SLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011716
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1216 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WITH A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES BACK OVER THE
AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1216 PM EST SUNDAY...ITS BECOMING MORE CLEAR THAT BAND OF
DEEPER MOISTURE/SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL TAKE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO ENHANCE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FURTHER NORTH AND DELIVER A
BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT. DRY AIR MASS
ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND THUS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
TIMING OF THE LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND FOCUSED MORE OF IT
TONIGHT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EST SUNDAY...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7AM. GENERALLY
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE THE ONLY FORECAST PERIOD OF THE SHORT TERM WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY...FLOW WILL VEER
TO NORTHWESTERLY AND SOME UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...BEST
CHANCE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST FACING
SLOPES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH
RELATIVELY MILD DAYTIME HOURS...MAYBE A DEGREE HIGHER THAN SUNDAY.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. VERY
COLD TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. ASIDE FROM TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 338 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY EVENING UP THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR
0.75 INCHES. BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS SLATED TO OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG
WARM WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE INTRUSION OF WARMER AIR WILL MAKE FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AS IF MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING INITIAL BURST OF OVERRUNNING
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WEDNESDAY...IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH SEVERAL
INCHES EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST JET OF AROUND 50 KNOTS AT 850 MB WILL
BRING IN WARMER AIR OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND 0C NORTHERN AREAS AND TO +2-3C SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOWARDS MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AS IF ANY ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

DURING WEDNESDAY SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY. EXPECT SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AND
SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS REGION...WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND LOWER TEENS BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOOK FOR DRY AND
COLD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS
MODERATE NEXT SATURDAY BACK TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...AND THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH LOWERING
VFR CEILINGS. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 17Z-20Z TO
MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. GREATEST IMPACTS AT RUT/MSS/SLK/MPV WITH LEAST AT PBG/BTV
DUE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL
STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 5-15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS AT BTV. WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER 06Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

1Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN SNOW
SHOWERS. GREATEST CHANCE OF IFR AT MPV/SLK.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS



000
FXUS61 KALY 011450
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
950 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS STARTING AT NOONTIME.

AS OF 945 AM EST...SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW HAS REACHED AS FAR NORTH AS
THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY/SARATOGA REGION. THE COLUMN IS
STILL SATURATING WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SHORT-WAVE IN
THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT...AND THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE TN/OH VALLEY.
THE 12Z KALY SOUNDING SHOWS ALL THE DRY AIR BELOW 750 HPA.  HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3-4 DEGREES DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN
PLACE...AND THE ONSET OF THE SNOWFALL. LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/SE CATSKILLS/NW CT WE HAVE INCREASED THE POPS DUE TO THE
RADAR TRENDS. THE BEST CHC OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A HALF AN INCH
OR SO PRIOR TO NOON WILL BE THE SE ZONES. BY THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON THE VIRGA WILL BE LESS...AND LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD
MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

THE SYSTEM IS VERY PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE FAST-MOVING FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT AND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE BEING AN OPEN WAVE.
STEADY SNOW SHOULD END A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY.

WE ARE STILL FORECASTING GENERALLY 3 TO 6 INCHES WITHIN THE CURRENT
ADVISORY AREA...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
REGARDS TO THE QPF...WITH THE NAM SHOWING SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS AS
IT IS INDICATING SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AS A
RESULT...THE NAM IS ALSO SHOWING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SNOW GROWTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR AREA...BUT THE GFS IS NOT AS
ROBUST. KEEPING THIS POTENTIAL IN MIND...WE ARE THINKING THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHER END SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 6 INCHES WILL
BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES IN
NY...AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A 13 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIO...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD VARY ACROSS THE AREA.

EVEN THOUGH STEADY SNOW TAPERS OFF EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA. DESPITE
LIMITED WARMING INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND EVEN MID
30S SOUTH...THE PERSISTENT WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER. WIND GUSTS
OF 30-40 MPH WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND FAVORED W-E ORIENTED VALLEYS. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND INTO SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS WITHIN THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS.

BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING THE FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE
ANTICYCLONIC...WHICH SHOULD RAPIDLY SHUT DOWN THE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP
SNOWPACK IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AS
A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE...WITH A S-SW LOW LEVEL
DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE SPED UP THE
TIMING AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. THE NAM
IS LAGGING BEHIND IN TERMS OF TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP...BUT WILL
SIDE TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS/ECMWF TIMING AND MENTION LIKELY POPS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NY ZONES AND CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE WARMING ALOFT LATE IN THE
DAY...BUT WITH THE WARM NOSE STILL BELOW FREEZING WILL MENTION ALL
SNOW THROUGH 6 PM WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONSENSUS AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM GUIDANCE CONTINUES FOR A
MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. STILL
SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION GETS
SINCE THERE IS STILL A SPREAD AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE ABOVE FREEZING
LAYER ALOFT GETS.  THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THE WARMING ALOFT
WILL BE OF A VERY SHORT DURATION... AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL SHIFT EAST QUICKLY ALLOWING COLD ADVECTION TO SPREAD
INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

BASED ON THE SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT SHIFTING
TO WEST AND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION THAT
OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY RAPIDLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A LINE OR BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

SO...SNOW EARLY TUESDAY EVENING CHANGES TO A PERIOD OF MIX OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF COLD RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ONCE THE COVERAGE OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDS AND THE
WINDS BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST...THE MIXING COULD THEN AID
TEMPERATURES IN CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 30S...AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S
IN SOME AREAS.  THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS TO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE MID 30S...AND MAY SEE MORE
MIXED PRECIPITATION THAN OTHER AREAS.  STILL...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH OF A MIX...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AND LIGHT COATING OF
ICE... WHERE SOME ADVISORY HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IN
MANY AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WE STILL HAVE A
LITTLE TIME TO ZERO IN ON THE SPECIFICS BEFORE CONSIDERING HEADLINES
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AND
BASED ON THE DIRECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED MULTI BANDS EXTENDING TO
AROUND THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. SOME UPSLOPE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
TACONICS TO SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. THERE
COULD ALSO BE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT GRAZES THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WITH SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30...BUT TENS IN THE NORTH.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...BUT
SOME SIGNALS OF SOME MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. THERE COLD
BE SOME INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
SATURDAY WITH THE WARM ADVECTION. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 20S...WITH
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 30S...WITH 20S IN
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...SPREADING CLOUDS...AND SNOW INTO THE REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z/TODAY.
THEREAFTER...AS INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
REGION...VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY IFR RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF
BETWEEN 07Z-09Z...AS VISIBILITIES BECOME VFR BUT CEILINGS REMAIN
MVFR. INCLUDING VCSH IN ALL TAFS AFTER 07Z-09Z SINCE THE SNOW MAY
TAKE SOME TIME TO EXIT.

CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
AT 5-10 KT THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...JPV



000
FXUS61 KALY 011450
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
950 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS STARTING AT NOONTIME.

AS OF 945 AM EST...SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW HAS REACHED AS FAR NORTH AS
THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY/SARATOGA REGION. THE COLUMN IS
STILL SATURATING WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SHORT-WAVE IN
THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT...AND THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE TN/OH VALLEY.
THE 12Z KALY SOUNDING SHOWS ALL THE DRY AIR BELOW 750 HPA.  HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3-4 DEGREES DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN
PLACE...AND THE ONSET OF THE SNOWFALL. LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/SE CATSKILLS/NW CT WE HAVE INCREASED THE POPS DUE TO THE
RADAR TRENDS. THE BEST CHC OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A HALF AN INCH
OR SO PRIOR TO NOON WILL BE THE SE ZONES. BY THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON THE VIRGA WILL BE LESS...AND LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD
MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

THE SYSTEM IS VERY PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE FAST-MOVING FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT AND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE BEING AN OPEN WAVE.
STEADY SNOW SHOULD END A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY.

WE ARE STILL FORECASTING GENERALLY 3 TO 6 INCHES WITHIN THE CURRENT
ADVISORY AREA...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
REGARDS TO THE QPF...WITH THE NAM SHOWING SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS AS
IT IS INDICATING SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AS A
RESULT...THE NAM IS ALSO SHOWING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SNOW GROWTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR AREA...BUT THE GFS IS NOT AS
ROBUST. KEEPING THIS POTENTIAL IN MIND...WE ARE THINKING THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHER END SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 6 INCHES WILL
BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES IN
NY...AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A 13 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIO...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD VARY ACROSS THE AREA.

EVEN THOUGH STEADY SNOW TAPERS OFF EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA. DESPITE
LIMITED WARMING INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND EVEN MID
30S SOUTH...THE PERSISTENT WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER. WIND GUSTS
OF 30-40 MPH WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND FAVORED W-E ORIENTED VALLEYS. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND INTO SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS WITHIN THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS.

BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING THE FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE
ANTICYCLONIC...WHICH SHOULD RAPIDLY SHUT DOWN THE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP
SNOWPACK IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AS
A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE...WITH A S-SW LOW LEVEL
DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE SPED UP THE
TIMING AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. THE NAM
IS LAGGING BEHIND IN TERMS OF TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP...BUT WILL
SIDE TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS/ECMWF TIMING AND MENTION LIKELY POPS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NY ZONES AND CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE WARMING ALOFT LATE IN THE
DAY...BUT WITH THE WARM NOSE STILL BELOW FREEZING WILL MENTION ALL
SNOW THROUGH 6 PM WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONSENSUS AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM GUIDANCE CONTINUES FOR A
MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. STILL
SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION GETS
SINCE THERE IS STILL A SPREAD AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE ABOVE FREEZING
LAYER ALOFT GETS.  THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THE WARMING ALOFT
WILL BE OF A VERY SHORT DURATION... AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL SHIFT EAST QUICKLY ALLOWING COLD ADVECTION TO SPREAD
INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

BASED ON THE SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT SHIFTING
TO WEST AND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION THAT
OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY RAPIDLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A LINE OR BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

SO...SNOW EARLY TUESDAY EVENING CHANGES TO A PERIOD OF MIX OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF COLD RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ONCE THE COVERAGE OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDS AND THE
WINDS BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST...THE MIXING COULD THEN AID
TEMPERATURES IN CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 30S...AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S
IN SOME AREAS.  THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS TO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE MID 30S...AND MAY SEE MORE
MIXED PRECIPITATION THAN OTHER AREAS.  STILL...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH OF A MIX...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AND LIGHT COATING OF
ICE... WHERE SOME ADVISORY HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IN
MANY AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WE STILL HAVE A
LITTLE TIME TO ZERO IN ON THE SPECIFICS BEFORE CONSIDERING HEADLINES
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AND
BASED ON THE DIRECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED MULTI BANDS EXTENDING TO
AROUND THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. SOME UPSLOPE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
TACONICS TO SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. THERE
COULD ALSO BE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT GRAZES THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WITH SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30...BUT TENS IN THE NORTH.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...BUT
SOME SIGNALS OF SOME MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. THERE COLD
BE SOME INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
SATURDAY WITH THE WARM ADVECTION. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 20S...WITH
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 30S...WITH 20S IN
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...SPREADING CLOUDS...AND SNOW INTO THE REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z/TODAY.
THEREAFTER...AS INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
REGION...VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY IFR RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF
BETWEEN 07Z-09Z...AS VISIBILITIES BECOME VFR BUT CEILINGS REMAIN
MVFR. INCLUDING VCSH IN ALL TAFS AFTER 07Z-09Z SINCE THE SNOW MAY
TAKE SOME TIME TO EXIT.

CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
AT 5-10 KT THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...JPV



000
FXUS61 KALY 011450
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
950 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS STARTING AT NOONTIME.

AS OF 945 AM EST...SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW HAS REACHED AS FAR NORTH AS
THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY/SARATOGA REGION. THE COLUMN IS
STILL SATURATING WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SHORT-WAVE IN
THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT...AND THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE TN/OH VALLEY.
THE 12Z KALY SOUNDING SHOWS ALL THE DRY AIR BELOW 750 HPA.  HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3-4 DEGREES DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN
PLACE...AND THE ONSET OF THE SNOWFALL. LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/SE CATSKILLS/NW CT WE HAVE INCREASED THE POPS DUE TO THE
RADAR TRENDS. THE BEST CHC OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A HALF AN INCH
OR SO PRIOR TO NOON WILL BE THE SE ZONES. BY THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON THE VIRGA WILL BE LESS...AND LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD
MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

THE SYSTEM IS VERY PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE FAST-MOVING FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT AND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE BEING AN OPEN WAVE.
STEADY SNOW SHOULD END A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY.

WE ARE STILL FORECASTING GENERALLY 3 TO 6 INCHES WITHIN THE CURRENT
ADVISORY AREA...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
REGARDS TO THE QPF...WITH THE NAM SHOWING SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS AS
IT IS INDICATING SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AS A
RESULT...THE NAM IS ALSO SHOWING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SNOW GROWTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR AREA...BUT THE GFS IS NOT AS
ROBUST. KEEPING THIS POTENTIAL IN MIND...WE ARE THINKING THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHER END SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 6 INCHES WILL
BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES IN
NY...AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A 13 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIO...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD VARY ACROSS THE AREA.

EVEN THOUGH STEADY SNOW TAPERS OFF EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA. DESPITE
LIMITED WARMING INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND EVEN MID
30S SOUTH...THE PERSISTENT WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER. WIND GUSTS
OF 30-40 MPH WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND FAVORED W-E ORIENTED VALLEYS. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND INTO SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS WITHIN THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS.

BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING THE FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE
ANTICYCLONIC...WHICH SHOULD RAPIDLY SHUT DOWN THE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP
SNOWPACK IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AS
A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE...WITH A S-SW LOW LEVEL
DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE SPED UP THE
TIMING AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. THE NAM
IS LAGGING BEHIND IN TERMS OF TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP...BUT WILL
SIDE TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS/ECMWF TIMING AND MENTION LIKELY POPS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NY ZONES AND CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE WARMING ALOFT LATE IN THE
DAY...BUT WITH THE WARM NOSE STILL BELOW FREEZING WILL MENTION ALL
SNOW THROUGH 6 PM WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONSENSUS AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM GUIDANCE CONTINUES FOR A
MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. STILL
SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION GETS
SINCE THERE IS STILL A SPREAD AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE ABOVE FREEZING
LAYER ALOFT GETS.  THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THE WARMING ALOFT
WILL BE OF A VERY SHORT DURATION... AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL SHIFT EAST QUICKLY ALLOWING COLD ADVECTION TO SPREAD
INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

BASED ON THE SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT SHIFTING
TO WEST AND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION THAT
OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY RAPIDLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A LINE OR BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

SO...SNOW EARLY TUESDAY EVENING CHANGES TO A PERIOD OF MIX OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF COLD RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ONCE THE COVERAGE OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDS AND THE
WINDS BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST...THE MIXING COULD THEN AID
TEMPERATURES IN CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 30S...AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S
IN SOME AREAS.  THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS TO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE MID 30S...AND MAY SEE MORE
MIXED PRECIPITATION THAN OTHER AREAS.  STILL...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH OF A MIX...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AND LIGHT COATING OF
ICE... WHERE SOME ADVISORY HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IN
MANY AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WE STILL HAVE A
LITTLE TIME TO ZERO IN ON THE SPECIFICS BEFORE CONSIDERING HEADLINES
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AND
BASED ON THE DIRECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED MULTI BANDS EXTENDING TO
AROUND THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. SOME UPSLOPE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
TACONICS TO SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. THERE
COULD ALSO BE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT GRAZES THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WITH SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30...BUT TENS IN THE NORTH.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...BUT
SOME SIGNALS OF SOME MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. THERE COLD
BE SOME INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
SATURDAY WITH THE WARM ADVECTION. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 20S...WITH
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 30S...WITH 20S IN
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...SPREADING CLOUDS...AND SNOW INTO THE REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z/TODAY.
THEREAFTER...AS INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
REGION...VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY IFR RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF
BETWEEN 07Z-09Z...AS VISIBILITIES BECOME VFR BUT CEILINGS REMAIN
MVFR. INCLUDING VCSH IN ALL TAFS AFTER 07Z-09Z SINCE THE SNOW MAY
TAKE SOME TIME TO EXIT.

CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
AT 5-10 KT THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...JPV



000
FXUS61 KALY 011450
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
950 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS STARTING AT NOONTIME.

AS OF 945 AM EST...SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW HAS REACHED AS FAR NORTH AS
THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY/SARATOGA REGION. THE COLUMN IS
STILL SATURATING WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SHORT-WAVE IN
THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT...AND THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE TN/OH VALLEY.
THE 12Z KALY SOUNDING SHOWS ALL THE DRY AIR BELOW 750 HPA.  HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3-4 DEGREES DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN
PLACE...AND THE ONSET OF THE SNOWFALL. LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/SE CATSKILLS/NW CT WE HAVE INCREASED THE POPS DUE TO THE
RADAR TRENDS. THE BEST CHC OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A HALF AN INCH
OR SO PRIOR TO NOON WILL BE THE SE ZONES. BY THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON THE VIRGA WILL BE LESS...AND LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD
MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

THE SYSTEM IS VERY PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE FAST-MOVING FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT AND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE BEING AN OPEN WAVE.
STEADY SNOW SHOULD END A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY.

WE ARE STILL FORECASTING GENERALLY 3 TO 6 INCHES WITHIN THE CURRENT
ADVISORY AREA...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
REGARDS TO THE QPF...WITH THE NAM SHOWING SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS AS
IT IS INDICATING SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AS A
RESULT...THE NAM IS ALSO SHOWING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SNOW GROWTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR AREA...BUT THE GFS IS NOT AS
ROBUST. KEEPING THIS POTENTIAL IN MIND...WE ARE THINKING THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHER END SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 6 INCHES WILL
BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES IN
NY...AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A 13 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIO...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD VARY ACROSS THE AREA.

EVEN THOUGH STEADY SNOW TAPERS OFF EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOW WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA. DESPITE
LIMITED WARMING INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND EVEN MID
30S SOUTH...THE PERSISTENT WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER. WIND GUSTS
OF 30-40 MPH WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND FAVORED W-E ORIENTED VALLEYS. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND INTO SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS WITHIN THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS.

BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING THE FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE
ANTICYCLONIC...WHICH SHOULD RAPIDLY SHUT DOWN THE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A DEEP
SNOWPACK IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AS
A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE...WITH A S-SW LOW LEVEL
DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE SPED UP THE
TIMING AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. THE NAM
IS LAGGING BEHIND IN TERMS OF TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP...BUT WILL
SIDE TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS/ECMWF TIMING AND MENTION LIKELY POPS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NY ZONES AND CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE WARMING ALOFT LATE IN THE
DAY...BUT WITH THE WARM NOSE STILL BELOW FREEZING WILL MENTION ALL
SNOW THROUGH 6 PM WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONSENSUS AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM GUIDANCE CONTINUES FOR A
MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. STILL
SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION GETS
SINCE THERE IS STILL A SPREAD AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE ABOVE FREEZING
LAYER ALOFT GETS.  THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THE WARMING ALOFT
WILL BE OF A VERY SHORT DURATION... AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL SHIFT EAST QUICKLY ALLOWING COLD ADVECTION TO SPREAD
INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

BASED ON THE SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT SHIFTING
TO WEST AND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION THAT
OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY RAPIDLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A LINE OR BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

SO...SNOW EARLY TUESDAY EVENING CHANGES TO A PERIOD OF MIX OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF COLD RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ONCE THE COVERAGE OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDS AND THE
WINDS BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST...THE MIXING COULD THEN AID
TEMPERATURES IN CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 30S...AROUND 40 TO LOWER 40S
IN SOME AREAS.  THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS TO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE MID 30S...AND MAY SEE MORE
MIXED PRECIPITATION THAN OTHER AREAS.  STILL...THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH OF A MIX...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AND LIGHT COATING OF
ICE... WHERE SOME ADVISORY HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IN
MANY AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WE STILL HAVE A
LITTLE TIME TO ZERO IN ON THE SPECIFICS BEFORE CONSIDERING HEADLINES
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AND
BASED ON THE DIRECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED MULTI BANDS EXTENDING TO
AROUND THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. SOME UPSLOPE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
TACONICS TO SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. THERE
COULD ALSO BE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT GRAZES THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WITH SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30...BUT TENS IN THE NORTH.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...BUT
SOME SIGNALS OF SOME MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. THERE COLD
BE SOME INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
SATURDAY WITH THE WARM ADVECTION. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 20S...WITH
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 30S...WITH 20S IN
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...SPREADING CLOUDS...AND SNOW INTO THE REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z/TODAY.
THEREAFTER...AS INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE
REGION...VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY IFR RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF
BETWEEN 07Z-09Z...AS VISIBILITIES BECOME VFR BUT CEILINGS REMAIN
MVFR. INCLUDING VCSH IN ALL TAFS AFTER 07Z-09Z SINCE THE SNOW MAY
TAKE SOME TIME TO EXIT.

CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TREND INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
AT 5-10 KT THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS.
FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS
SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON
AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS ON RECORD
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT ALBANY...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE 2ND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 12.7 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1820.
HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT ALBANY:

1)   9.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2)  11.8 DEGREES F JANUARY 1857
3)  12.1 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 1934
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015
T4) 12.7 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994

AT GLENS FALLS...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 7.3 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 4TH COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST MONTH SINCE
JANUARY 1994. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT GLENS FALLS DATE BACK TO
1945. HERE IS A LIST OF THE ALL TIME COLDEST MONTHS AT GLENS
FALLS:

1) 4.9 DEGREES F JANUARY 1970
2) 6.5 DEGREES F JANUARY 1982
3) 7.1 DEGREES F JANUARY 1994
4) 7.3 DEGREES F FEBRUARY 2015

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...FEBRUARY 2015 WAS THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD
WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.6 DEGREES F. THIS ALSO MARKED
THE 2ND COLDEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
POUGHKEEPSIE DATE BACK TO 1949...ALTHOUGH DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 TO JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ032-
     038>040-047-048-051-054-058>061-063>066-082.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...JPV



000
FXUS61 KALY 011450
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
950 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS HERKIMER
COUNTY...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS STARTING AT NOONTIME.

AS OF 945 AM EST...SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW HAS REACHED AS FAR NORTH AS
THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY/SARATOGA REGION. THE COLUMN IS
STILL SATURATING WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SHORT-WAVE IN
THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT...AND THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE TN/OH VALLEY.
THE 12Z KALY SOUNDING SHOWS ALL THE DRY AIR BELOW 750 HPA.  HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3-4 DEGREES DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS IN
PLACE...AND THE ONSET OF THE SNOWFALL. LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/SE CATSKILLS/NW CT WE HAVE INCREASED THE POPS DUE TO THE
RADAR TRENDS. THE BEST CHC OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A HALF AN INCH
OR SO PRIOR TO NOON WILL BE THE SE ZONES. BY THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON THE VIRGA WILL BE LESS...AND LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD
MOST OF THE FCST AREA.

THE SYSTEM IS VERY PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE FAST-MOVING FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT AND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE BEING AN OPEN WAVE.
STEADY SNOW SHOULD END A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY.

WE ARE STILL FORECASTING GENERALLY 3 TO 6 INCHES WITHIN THE CURRENT
ADVISORY AREA...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
REGARDS TO THE QPF...WITH THE NAM SHOWING SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS AS
IT IS INDICATING SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AS A
RESULT...THE NAM IS ALSO SHOWING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SNOW GROWTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR AREA...BUT THE GFS IS NOT AS
ROBUST. KEEPING THIS POTENTIAL IN MIND...WE ARE THINKING THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHER END SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 6 INCHES WILL
BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES IN
NY...AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A 13 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIO...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD VARY ACROSS THE AREA.

EVEN THOUGH STEADY SNOW TAPERS OFF EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL