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000
FXUS61 KBTV 050801
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
401 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A SPOT
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT TODAY...HOWEVER THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH FINAL 5H VORT AND WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID
LVL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN NY ATTM. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL
MOVE EAST INTO NORTHERN VT TODAY...RESULTING IN SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE NEK. OTHERWISE...GIVEN PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AND TEMPS REACHING CONVECTIVE VALUES EXPECT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. THESE CLOUDS WILL
HAVE LIMITED VERTICAL GROWTH DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND BUILDING
HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C
TODAY AND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS MID/UPPER 70S NEK/MTN TOWNS TO LOWER
80S CPV/SLV WITH A FEW WARMER READINGS IN THE MID 80S POSSIBLE NEAR
BTV AND MSS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
EXPECTED. THIS DEEP DRY LAYER AND WARMING THICKNESS VALUES WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTH WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH
VALUES BTWN 14-16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY AND
ASSOCIATED 5H CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TWD THE NE CONUS AHEAD
OF NEXT TROF. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE ON QUICKLY ADVECTING 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ON MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS ON TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF.

FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT EXTREMELY CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL PRE TROF MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS...COMBINED WITH DELAYED ARRIVAL OF ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT
AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. AS IN MANY CASES ALREADY THIS SUMMER...BEST
DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFT
00Z WEDS...WHEN INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. IN ADDITION...BEST 0 TO 3 AND
0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES LAG BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT AND ARE CLOSELY
TIED TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AFTN. MY THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SOME SOME SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS
WITH INITIAL SURGE OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORT BTWN
15Z-20Z TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING AS OUR CWA WILL BE BTWN
SYSTEMS. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG BY 00Z...BUT BETTER FORCING/FRONT IS
STILL WEST OF THE SLV. AS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION BTWN 03Z-
09Z SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LOCATED TO OUR NORTH...SUPPORTING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS. GIVEN SCENARIO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED PW VALUES SURGE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BTWN 1.60 AND
1.80". TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS...BUT 925MB TEMPS
WARM TO NEAR 20C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
INCREASED DWPTS...MAKING IF FEEL MUGGY/SUMMER-LIKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
COMING AROUND TO A CONSENSUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD THUS MAKING
AN INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT HAS BEEN LACKING AS OF LATE.

THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE
NORTH AND ACROSS REGION TUE NGT/WED FOR SHRA/TSRA THREAT SLIDING
EAST AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES. THEREAFTER...MODELS HAVE MERGED TO A
SIMILAR SOLUTION OF PREDOMIANT ZONAL FLOW WITH ANY POTENTIAL SHORT
WAVES IN THE FLOW MINOR WITH A DISCONNECT TO ANY MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...DO I DARE SAY IT A DRY PERIOD FOR THU-FRI AND
POSSIBLY SAT BEFORE ANOTHER SHRA/TSRA THREAT SUNDAY.

AFTER A WARM TUE...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LONGER TERM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S/80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR
EARLY THIS MORNING AS CLOUD DECK SCATTERS OUT AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO
YESTERDAYS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/BR WITH IFR/LIFR
STILL LIKELY AT LEAST FOR A TIME AT MPV/SLK.

ANY FOG/BR LIFTS AND SCATTERS OUT AFTER 12Z WITH ONLY SCATTERED
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF TODAY. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE EARLY (EXCEPT SE 4-5KT AT RUT) TURN WESTERLY ON
SUNDAY...BUT REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 050801
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
401 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A SPOT
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT TODAY...HOWEVER THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH FINAL 5H VORT AND WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID
LVL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN NY ATTM. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL
MOVE EAST INTO NORTHERN VT TODAY...RESULTING IN SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE NEK. OTHERWISE...GIVEN PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AND TEMPS REACHING CONVECTIVE VALUES EXPECT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. THESE CLOUDS WILL
HAVE LIMITED VERTICAL GROWTH DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND BUILDING
HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C
TODAY AND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS MID/UPPER 70S NEK/MTN TOWNS TO LOWER
80S CPV/SLV WITH A FEW WARMER READINGS IN THE MID 80S POSSIBLE NEAR
BTV AND MSS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
EXPECTED. THIS DEEP DRY LAYER AND WARMING THICKNESS VALUES WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTH WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH
VALUES BTWN 14-16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY AND
ASSOCIATED 5H CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TWD THE NE CONUS AHEAD
OF NEXT TROF. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE ON QUICKLY ADVECTING 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ON MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS ON TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF.

FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT EXTREMELY CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL PRE TROF MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS...COMBINED WITH DELAYED ARRIVAL OF ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT
AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. AS IN MANY CASES ALREADY THIS SUMMER...BEST
DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFT
00Z WEDS...WHEN INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. IN ADDITION...BEST 0 TO 3 AND
0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES LAG BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT AND ARE CLOSELY
TIED TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AFTN. MY THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SOME SOME SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS
WITH INITIAL SURGE OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORT BTWN
15Z-20Z TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING AS OUR CWA WILL BE BTWN
SYSTEMS. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG BY 00Z...BUT BETTER FORCING/FRONT IS
STILL WEST OF THE SLV. AS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION BTWN 03Z-
09Z SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LOCATED TO OUR NORTH...SUPPORTING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS. GIVEN SCENARIO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED PW VALUES SURGE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BTWN 1.60 AND
1.80". TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS...BUT 925MB TEMPS
WARM TO NEAR 20C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
INCREASED DWPTS...MAKING IF FEEL MUGGY/SUMMER-LIKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
COMING AROUND TO A CONSENSUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD THUS MAKING
AN INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT HAS BEEN LACKING AS OF LATE.

THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE
NORTH AND ACROSS REGION TUE NGT/WED FOR SHRA/TSRA THREAT SLIDING
EAST AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES. THEREAFTER...MODELS HAVE MERGED TO A
SIMILAR SOLUTION OF PREDOMIANT ZONAL FLOW WITH ANY POTENTIAL SHORT
WAVES IN THE FLOW MINOR WITH A DISCONNECT TO ANY MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...DO I DARE SAY IT A DRY PERIOD FOR THU-FRI AND
POSSIBLY SAT BEFORE ANOTHER SHRA/TSRA THREAT SUNDAY.

AFTER A WARM TUE...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LONGER TERM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S/80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR
EARLY THIS MORNING AS CLOUD DECK SCATTERS OUT AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO
YESTERDAYS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/BR WITH IFR/LIFR
STILL LIKELY AT LEAST FOR A TIME AT MPV/SLK.

ANY FOG/BR LIFTS AND SCATTERS OUT AFTER 12Z WITH ONLY SCATTERED
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF TODAY. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE EARLY (EXCEPT SE 4-5KT AT RUT) TURN WESTERLY ON
SUNDAY...BUT REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 050801
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
401 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A SPOT
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT TODAY...HOWEVER THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH FINAL 5H VORT AND WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID
LVL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN NY ATTM. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL
MOVE EAST INTO NORTHERN VT TODAY...RESULTING IN SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE NEK. OTHERWISE...GIVEN PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AND TEMPS REACHING CONVECTIVE VALUES EXPECT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. THESE CLOUDS WILL
HAVE LIMITED VERTICAL GROWTH DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND BUILDING
HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C
TODAY AND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS MID/UPPER 70S NEK/MTN TOWNS TO LOWER
80S CPV/SLV WITH A FEW WARMER READINGS IN THE MID 80S POSSIBLE NEAR
BTV AND MSS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
EXPECTED. THIS DEEP DRY LAYER AND WARMING THICKNESS VALUES WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTH WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH
VALUES BTWN 14-16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY AND
ASSOCIATED 5H CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TWD THE NE CONUS AHEAD
OF NEXT TROF. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE ON QUICKLY ADVECTING 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ON MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS ON TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF.

FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT EXTREMELY CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL PRE TROF MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS...COMBINED WITH DELAYED ARRIVAL OF ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT
AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. AS IN MANY CASES ALREADY THIS SUMMER...BEST
DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFT
00Z WEDS...WHEN INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. IN ADDITION...BEST 0 TO 3 AND
0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES LAG BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT AND ARE CLOSELY
TIED TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AFTN. MY THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SOME SOME SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS
WITH INITIAL SURGE OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORT BTWN
15Z-20Z TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING AS OUR CWA WILL BE BTWN
SYSTEMS. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG BY 00Z...BUT BETTER FORCING/FRONT IS
STILL WEST OF THE SLV. AS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION BTWN 03Z-
09Z SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LOCATED TO OUR NORTH...SUPPORTING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS. GIVEN SCENARIO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED PW VALUES SURGE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BTWN 1.60 AND
1.80". TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS...BUT 925MB TEMPS
WARM TO NEAR 20C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
INCREASED DWPTS...MAKING IF FEEL MUGGY/SUMMER-LIKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
COMING AROUND TO A CONSENSUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD THUS MAKING
AN INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT HAS BEEN LACKING AS OF LATE.

THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE
NORTH AND ACROSS REGION TUE NGT/WED FOR SHRA/TSRA THREAT SLIDING
EAST AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES. THEREAFTER...MODELS HAVE MERGED TO A
SIMILAR SOLUTION OF PREDOMIANT ZONAL FLOW WITH ANY POTENTIAL SHORT
WAVES IN THE FLOW MINOR WITH A DISCONNECT TO ANY MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...DO I DARE SAY IT A DRY PERIOD FOR THU-FRI AND
POSSIBLY SAT BEFORE ANOTHER SHRA/TSRA THREAT SUNDAY.

AFTER A WARM TUE...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LONGER TERM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S/80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR
EARLY THIS MORNING AS CLOUD DECK SCATTERS OUT AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO
YESTERDAYS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/BR WITH IFR/LIFR
STILL LIKELY AT LEAST FOR A TIME AT MPV/SLK.

ANY FOG/BR LIFTS AND SCATTERS OUT AFTER 12Z WITH ONLY SCATTERED
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF TODAY. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE EARLY (EXCEPT SE 4-5KT AT RUT) TURN WESTERLY ON
SUNDAY...BUT REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 050801
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
401 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. A SPOT
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT TODAY...HOWEVER THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH FINAL 5H VORT AND WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID
LVL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN NY ATTM. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL
MOVE EAST INTO NORTHERN VT TODAY...RESULTING IN SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE NEK. OTHERWISE...GIVEN PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AND TEMPS REACHING CONVECTIVE VALUES EXPECT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. THESE CLOUDS WILL
HAVE LIMITED VERTICAL GROWTH DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AND BUILDING
HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C
TODAY AND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS MID/UPPER 70S NEK/MTN TOWNS TO LOWER
80S CPV/SLV WITH A FEW WARMER READINGS IN THE MID 80S POSSIBLE NEAR
BTV AND MSS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
EXPECTED. THIS DEEP DRY LAYER AND WARMING THICKNESS VALUES WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTH WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH
VALUES BTWN 14-16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY AND
ASSOCIATED 5H CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TWD THE NE CONUS AHEAD
OF NEXT TROF. BOTH GFS/NAM AGREE ON QUICKLY ADVECTING 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ON MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS ON TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR CWA...AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF.

FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT EXTREMELY CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL PRE TROF MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS...COMBINED WITH DELAYED ARRIVAL OF ACTUAL SFC COLD FRONT
AND DYNAMICS ALOFT. AS IN MANY CASES ALREADY THIS SUMMER...BEST
DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LOOKS TO OCCUR AFT
00Z WEDS...WHEN INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. IN ADDITION...BEST 0 TO 3 AND
0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES LAG BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONT AND ARE CLOSELY
TIED TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF OVER SOUTHERN CANADA LATE TUESDAY
AFTN. MY THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SOME SOME SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS
WITH INITIAL SURGE OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORT BTWN
15Z-20Z TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING AS OUR CWA WILL BE BTWN
SYSTEMS. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG BY 00Z...BUT BETTER FORCING/FRONT IS
STILL WEST OF THE SLV. AS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION BTWN 03Z-
09Z SFC INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
LOCATED TO OUR NORTH...SUPPORTING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS. GIVEN SCENARIO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWN POURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAVE NOTED PW VALUES SURGE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BTWN 1.60 AND
1.80". TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUDS...BUT 925MB TEMPS
WARM TO NEAR 20C...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH
INCREASED DWPTS...MAKING IF FEEL MUGGY/SUMMER-LIKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
COMING AROUND TO A CONSENSUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD THUS MAKING
AN INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT HAS BEEN LACKING AS OF LATE.

THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE
NORTH AND ACROSS REGION TUE NGT/WED FOR SHRA/TSRA THREAT SLIDING
EAST AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES. THEREAFTER...MODELS HAVE MERGED TO A
SIMILAR SOLUTION OF PREDOMIANT ZONAL FLOW WITH ANY POTENTIAL SHORT
WAVES IN THE FLOW MINOR WITH A DISCONNECT TO ANY MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...DO I DARE SAY IT A DRY PERIOD FOR THU-FRI AND
POSSIBLY SAT BEFORE ANOTHER SHRA/TSRA THREAT SUNDAY.

AFTER A WARM TUE...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LONGER TERM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S/80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR
EARLY THIS MORNING AS CLOUD DECK SCATTERS OUT AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO
YESTERDAYS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/BR WITH IFR/LIFR
STILL LIKELY AT LEAST FOR A TIME AT MPV/SLK.

ANY FOG/BR LIFTS AND SCATTERS OUT AFTER 12Z WITH ONLY SCATTERED
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF TODAY. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE EARLY (EXCEPT SE 4-5KT AT RUT) TURN WESTERLY ON
SUNDAY...BUT REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV


  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 050756
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
356 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT IMPACT THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT...SHOWERS HAVE ALL DIMINISHED ACROSS THE REGION
AS THE MAIN HAZARD THIS MORNING IS THE FOG...LOCALLY DENSE. IF
CONDITIONS CONTINUE...WE WILL HIGHLIGHT WITHIN AN SPS.
OTHERWISE...H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WAS PROGRESSING THROUGH EASTERN NY AND WILL
PASS THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD MORNING. SUBSIDENCE AND
MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH TRANQUIL
WEATHER TODAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...H850 TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND
+15C WHICH EQUATES TO MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND M-U 70S FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE RIDGE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD/STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUED
TRANQUILITY YET WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FOG/MIST
FORMATION OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS...A MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DEWPOINTS PROGGED TO HOLD BETWEEN 55-60F...ADDITIONAL PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A TRANSITIONING PORTION OF THE FORECAST TOWARD A MORE
SUMMERLIKE AIR MASS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD. HIGHER THETA-E AIR ALONG
WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS HIGHS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AS THOSE H850
TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE +15C.

THE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS PWATS
CLIMB FURTHER AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES AND EVEN HIGHER THETA-E
VALUES. WHILE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
THICKEN...SO TOO WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WEAKENS A BIT AS THE MID-UPR SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT. IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY INTO THE 60S WITH NEAR 70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS WE BECOME WELL
ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. SHOWALTERS DROP A BIT FURTHER
LEANING TOWARD AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
K-INDICES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 30S CELSIUS. THIS ALL SUGGESTS
THE INCREASE PROBABILTIES FOR CONVECTION SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...THIS TOO WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG AS MARGINAL SHEAR
MAGNITUES AOB 20KTS. THE SPC SWODY3 HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND DACKS INTO A `MARGINAL` RISK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW A
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT...THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WILL MAKE
IT TOUGH FOR STORMS TO BE STRONG/SEVERE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER AND
SOME BREAKS OF SUN CAN OCCUR...THEN THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY STRONGER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY MUGGY WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 WITH HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE CROSSING LATER IN THE DAY.

THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
SHOULD KEEP IT FAIRLY DRY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING IN
CASE THE FRONT SLOWS OR STALLS CLOSER TO THE AREA. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST SOME WAVES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY STALLED TO THE
SOUTH...BUT AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR
AREA TO HAVE AN IMPACT. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM UP...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION AT SOME POINT OVER NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT TIMING ON THIS SYSTEM IS STILL VERY MUCH UP IN THE AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS THANKS TO THE RAINFALL ON SATURDAY...LIFR/IFR
FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT ALL TAF SITES AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VISIBILITY
COULD BE AS LOW AS 1/4SM...ESP FOR KPSF/KGFL.

FOG SHOULD START TO BREAK UP BY 10Z-12Z...AND MOST SITES LOOK TO
BE VFR AFTER 12Z WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT W-SW WIND
DEVELOPING. SOME DIURNAL CU AT 5-6 KFT WILL FORM DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...BUT IT WILL BE VFR ALL DAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 5-10
KTS BY AFTN.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON SUNDAY EVENING...AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.
IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BUT SOME MORE
FOG/MIST WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY FOR KGFL/KPSF...FOR
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES
AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT INTO THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEN
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MOST OF MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SIGNIFY A CHANGE OF AIRMASS
A PWATS CLIMB HIGHER ALONG WITH INCREASING K-INDICES.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 050756
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
356 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT IMPACT THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT...SHOWERS HAVE ALL DIMINISHED ACROSS THE REGION
AS THE MAIN HAZARD THIS MORNING IS THE FOG...LOCALLY DENSE. IF
CONDITIONS CONTINUE...WE WILL HIGHLIGHT WITHIN AN SPS.
OTHERWISE...H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WAS PROGRESSING THROUGH EASTERN NY AND WILL
PASS THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD MORNING. SUBSIDENCE AND
MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH TRANQUIL
WEATHER TODAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...H850 TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND
+15C WHICH EQUATES TO MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND M-U 70S FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE RIDGE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD/STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUED
TRANQUILITY YET WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FOG/MIST
FORMATION OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS...A MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DEWPOINTS PROGGED TO HOLD BETWEEN 55-60F...ADDITIONAL PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A TRANSITIONING PORTION OF THE FORECAST TOWARD A MORE
SUMMERLIKE AIR MASS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD. HIGHER THETA-E AIR ALONG
WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS HIGHS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AS THOSE H850
TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE +15C.

THE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS PWATS
CLIMB FURTHER AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES AND EVEN HIGHER THETA-E
VALUES. WHILE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
THICKEN...SO TOO WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WEAKENS A BIT AS THE MID-UPR SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT. IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY INTO THE 60S WITH NEAR 70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS WE BECOME WELL
ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. SHOWALTERS DROP A BIT FURTHER
LEANING TOWARD AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
K-INDICES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 30S CELSIUS. THIS ALL SUGGESTS
THE INCREASE PROBABILTIES FOR CONVECTION SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...THIS TOO WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG AS MARGINAL SHEAR
MAGNITUES AOB 20KTS. THE SPC SWODY3 HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND DACKS INTO A `MARGINAL` RISK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW A
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT...THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WILL MAKE
IT TOUGH FOR STORMS TO BE STRONG/SEVERE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER AND
SOME BREAKS OF SUN CAN OCCUR...THEN THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY STRONGER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY MUGGY WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 WITH HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE CROSSING LATER IN THE DAY.

THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
SHOULD KEEP IT FAIRLY DRY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING IN
CASE THE FRONT SLOWS OR STALLS CLOSER TO THE AREA. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST SOME WAVES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY STALLED TO THE
SOUTH...BUT AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR
AREA TO HAVE AN IMPACT. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM UP...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION AT SOME POINT OVER NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT TIMING ON THIS SYSTEM IS STILL VERY MUCH UP IN THE AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS THANKS TO THE RAINFALL ON SATURDAY...LIFR/IFR
FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT ALL TAF SITES AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VISIBILITY
COULD BE AS LOW AS 1/4SM...ESP FOR KPSF/KGFL.

FOG SHOULD START TO BREAK UP BY 10Z-12Z...AND MOST SITES LOOK TO
BE VFR AFTER 12Z WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT W-SW WIND
DEVELOPING. SOME DIURNAL CU AT 5-6 KFT WILL FORM DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...BUT IT WILL BE VFR ALL DAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 5-10
KTS BY AFTN.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON SUNDAY EVENING...AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.
IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BUT SOME MORE
FOG/MIST WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY FOR KGFL/KPSF...FOR
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES
AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT INTO THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEN
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MOST OF MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SIGNIFY A CHANGE OF AIRMASS
A PWATS CLIMB HIGHER ALONG WITH INCREASING K-INDICES.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 050756
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
356 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT IMPACT THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT...SHOWERS HAVE ALL DIMINISHED ACROSS THE REGION
AS THE MAIN HAZARD THIS MORNING IS THE FOG...LOCALLY DENSE. IF
CONDITIONS CONTINUE...WE WILL HIGHLIGHT WITHIN AN SPS.
OTHERWISE...H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WAS PROGRESSING THROUGH EASTERN NY AND WILL
PASS THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD MORNING. SUBSIDENCE AND
MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH TRANQUIL
WEATHER TODAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...H850 TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND
+15C WHICH EQUATES TO MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND M-U 70S FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE RIDGE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD/STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUED
TRANQUILITY YET WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FOG/MIST
FORMATION OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS...A MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DEWPOINTS PROGGED TO HOLD BETWEEN 55-60F...ADDITIONAL PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A TRANSITIONING PORTION OF THE FORECAST TOWARD A MORE
SUMMERLIKE AIR MASS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD. HIGHER THETA-E AIR ALONG
WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS HIGHS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AS THOSE H850
TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE +15C.

THE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS PWATS
CLIMB FURTHER AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES AND EVEN HIGHER THETA-E
VALUES. WHILE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
THICKEN...SO TOO WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WEAKENS A BIT AS THE MID-UPR SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT. IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY INTO THE 60S WITH NEAR 70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS WE BECOME WELL
ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. SHOWALTERS DROP A BIT FURTHER
LEANING TOWARD AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
K-INDICES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 30S CELSIUS. THIS ALL SUGGESTS
THE INCREASE PROBABILTIES FOR CONVECTION SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...THIS TOO WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG AS MARGINAL SHEAR
MAGNITUES AOB 20KTS. THE SPC SWODY3 HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND DACKS INTO A `MARGINAL` RISK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW A
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT...THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WILL MAKE
IT TOUGH FOR STORMS TO BE STRONG/SEVERE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER AND
SOME BREAKS OF SUN CAN OCCUR...THEN THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY STRONGER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY MUGGY WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 WITH HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE CROSSING LATER IN THE DAY.

THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
SHOULD KEEP IT FAIRLY DRY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING IN
CASE THE FRONT SLOWS OR STALLS CLOSER TO THE AREA. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST SOME WAVES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY STALLED TO THE
SOUTH...BUT AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR
AREA TO HAVE AN IMPACT. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM UP...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION AT SOME POINT OVER NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT TIMING ON THIS SYSTEM IS STILL VERY MUCH UP IN THE AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS THANKS TO THE RAINFALL ON SATURDAY...LIFR/IFR
FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT ALL TAF SITES AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VISIBILITY
COULD BE AS LOW AS 1/4SM...ESP FOR KPSF/KGFL.

FOG SHOULD START TO BREAK UP BY 10Z-12Z...AND MOST SITES LOOK TO
BE VFR AFTER 12Z WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT W-SW WIND
DEVELOPING. SOME DIURNAL CU AT 5-6 KFT WILL FORM DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...BUT IT WILL BE VFR ALL DAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 5-10
KTS BY AFTN.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON SUNDAY EVENING...AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.
IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BUT SOME MORE
FOG/MIST WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY FOR KGFL/KPSF...FOR
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES
AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT INTO THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEN
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MOST OF MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SIGNIFY A CHANGE OF AIRMASS
A PWATS CLIMB HIGHER ALONG WITH INCREASING K-INDICES.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 050756
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
356 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT IMPACT THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT...SHOWERS HAVE ALL DIMINISHED ACROSS THE REGION
AS THE MAIN HAZARD THIS MORNING IS THE FOG...LOCALLY DENSE. IF
CONDITIONS CONTINUE...WE WILL HIGHLIGHT WITHIN AN SPS.
OTHERWISE...H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WAS PROGRESSING THROUGH EASTERN NY AND WILL
PASS THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD MORNING. SUBSIDENCE AND
MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH TRANQUIL
WEATHER TODAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...H850 TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND
+15C WHICH EQUATES TO MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND M-U 70S FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE RIDGE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD/STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUED
TRANQUILITY YET WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FOG/MIST
FORMATION OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS...A MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DEWPOINTS PROGGED TO HOLD BETWEEN 55-60F...ADDITIONAL PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A TRANSITIONING PORTION OF THE FORECAST TOWARD A MORE
SUMMERLIKE AIR MASS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD. HIGHER THETA-E AIR ALONG
WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS HIGHS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AS THOSE H850
TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE +15C.

THE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS PWATS
CLIMB FURTHER AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES AND EVEN HIGHER THETA-E
VALUES. WHILE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
THICKEN...SO TOO WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WEAKENS A BIT AS THE MID-UPR SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT. IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY INTO THE 60S WITH NEAR 70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS WE BECOME WELL
ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. SHOWALTERS DROP A BIT FURTHER
LEANING TOWARD AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
K-INDICES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 30S CELSIUS. THIS ALL SUGGESTS
THE INCREASE PROBABILTIES FOR CONVECTION SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...THIS TOO WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG AS MARGINAL SHEAR
MAGNITUES AOB 20KTS. THE SPC SWODY3 HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND DACKS INTO A `MARGINAL` RISK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW A
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT...THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WILL MAKE
IT TOUGH FOR STORMS TO BE STRONG/SEVERE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER AND
SOME BREAKS OF SUN CAN OCCUR...THEN THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY STRONGER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY MUGGY WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 WITH HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE CROSSING LATER IN THE DAY.

THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
SHOULD KEEP IT FAIRLY DRY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING IN
CASE THE FRONT SLOWS OR STALLS CLOSER TO THE AREA. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST SOME WAVES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY STALLED TO THE
SOUTH...BUT AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR
AREA TO HAVE AN IMPACT. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM UP...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION AT SOME POINT OVER NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT TIMING ON THIS SYSTEM IS STILL VERY MUCH UP IN THE AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS THANKS TO THE RAINFALL ON SATURDAY...LIFR/IFR
FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT ALL TAF SITES AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VISIBILITY
COULD BE AS LOW AS 1/4SM...ESP FOR KPSF/KGFL.

FOG SHOULD START TO BREAK UP BY 10Z-12Z...AND MOST SITES LOOK TO
BE VFR AFTER 12Z WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT W-SW WIND
DEVELOPING. SOME DIURNAL CU AT 5-6 KFT WILL FORM DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...BUT IT WILL BE VFR ALL DAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 5-10
KTS BY AFTN.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON SUNDAY EVENING...AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.
IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BUT SOME MORE
FOG/MIST WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY FOR KGFL/KPSF...FOR
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES
AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT INTO THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEN
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MOST OF MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SIGNIFY A CHANGE OF AIRMASS
A PWATS CLIMB HIGHER ALONG WITH INCREASING K-INDICES.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 050734
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
334 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL EXIT THE
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER TO RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT...SHOWERS HAVE ALL DIMINISHED ACROSS THE REGION
AS THE MAIN HAZARD THIS MORNING IS THE FOG...LOCALLY DENSE. IF
CONDITIONS CONTINUE...WE WILL HIGHLIGHT WITHIN AN SPS.
OTHERWISE...H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WAS PROGRESSING THROUGH EASTERN NY AND WILL
PASS THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD MORNING. SUBSIDENCE AND
MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH TRANQUIL
WEATHER TODAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...H850 TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND
+15C WHICH EQUATES TO MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND M-U 70S FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE RIDGE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD/STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUED
TRANQUILITY YET WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FOG/MIST
FORMATION OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS...A MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DEWPOINTS PROGGED TO HOLD BETWEEN 55-60F...ADDITIONAL PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A TRANSITIONING PORTION OF THE FORECAST TOWARD A MORE
SUMMERLIKE AIR MASS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD. HIGHER THETA-E AIR ALONG
WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS HIGHS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AS THOSE H850
TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE +15C.

THE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS PWATS
CLIMB FURTHER AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES AND EVEN HIGHER THETA-E
VALUES. WHILE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
THICKEN...SO TOO WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WEAKENS A BIT AS THE MID-UPR SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT. IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY INTO THE 60S WITH NEAR 70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS WE BECOME WELL
ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. SHOWALTERS DROP A BIT FURTHER
LEANING TOWARD AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
K-INDICES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 30S CELSIUS. THIS ALL SUGGESTS
THE INCREASE PROBABILTIES FOR CONVECTION SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...THIS TOO WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K J/KG AS MARGINAL SHEAR
MAGNITUES AOB 20KTS. THE SPC SWODY3 HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND DACKS INTO A `MARGINAL` RISK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE REGION FROM THE
GREAT LAKES FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW A
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT...THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WILL MAKE
IT TOUGH FOR STORMS TO BE STRONG/SEVERE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER AND
SOME BREAKS OF SUN CAN OCCUR...THEN THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY STRONGER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY MUGGY WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 WITH HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE CROSSING LATER IN THE DAY.

THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
SHOULD KEEP IT FAIRLY DRY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL KEEP
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING IN
CASE THE FRONT SLOWS OR STALLS CLOSER TO THE AREA. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST SOME WAVES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY STALLED TO THE
SOUTH...BUT AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM OUR
AREA TO HAVE AN IMPACT. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM UP...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION AT SOME POINT OVER NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT TIMING ON THIS SYSTEM IS STILL VERY MUCH UP IN THE AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS THANKS TO THE RAINFALL ON SATURDAY...LIFR/IFR
FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT ALL TAF SITES AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VISIBILITY
COULD BE AS LOW AS 1/4SM...ESP FOR KPSF/KGFL.

FOG SHOULD START TO BREAK UP BY 10Z-12Z...AND MOST SITES LOOK TO
BE VFR AFTER 12Z WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT W-SW WIND
DEVELOPING. SOME DIURNAL CU AT 5-6 KFT WILL FORM DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...BUT IT WILL BE VFR ALL DAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 5-10
KTS BY AFTN.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON SUNDAY EVENING...AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.
IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BUT SOME MORE
FOG/MIST WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY FOR KGFL/KPSF...FOR
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES
AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT INTO THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THEN
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MOST OF MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SIGNIFY A CHANGE OF AIRMASS
A PWATS CLIMB HIGHER ALONG WITH INCREASING K-INDICES.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM



000
FXUS61 KBTV 050609
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
209 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPDATED POP FCST TO MATCH CRNT RADAR
TRENDS. ALSO, INCREASED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG OVERNIGHT AND
BUMPED TEMPS UP SEVERAL DEGREES. CRNT RADAR SHOWS BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
UPSTREAM OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY. THESE SHOWERS WILL IMPACT
NORTHERN NY/VT THRU EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE DISSIPATING.
OTHERWISE...PATCHY FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED IN THE DEEPER
PROTECTED VALLEYS AND WILL CONTINUE...WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60F.

AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTERNOON MOVED INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING...AND IS NOW DIMINISHING IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT GRADUALLY DEPRESSES
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL VERMONT AND ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK.
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS ACCORDING TO
RADAR ESTIMATES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN
PARTS OF ESSEX AND CLINTON COUNTIES IN NEW YORK. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS AREA OF SHOWERS
SETTLES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. BUT THE THREAT FOR A FEW MORE
POPUP SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AREAWIDE AS
UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY EAST ACROSS REGION. HAVE MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.
WITH TODAYS RAINFALL AND EXPECTATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
CLEARING LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG TO
FORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE CLIMO FAVORED MOUNTAIN AND RIVER
VALLEYS. TEMP FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SATURDAY...MODELS SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ON
SUNDAY AND THEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON MONDAY. MAINLY
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
BEGINS ON TUESDAY WHERE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER
IN THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR
TUESDAY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY LEADING TO THE CHANCE FOR SOME POPUP TSRA, BUT THE
TIMING OF THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT DIFFERS. 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OFFERING A LATER FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING MID-DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO TO
SHOW A FASTER ARRIVAL TIME TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES, SO HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST A BLEND WITH SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN A LITTLE
MORE CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY,
GUIDANCE IS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN TURNING
QUIET FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT
WITH VERY LITTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SO WE SHOULD SEE A DRY END TO THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES, HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR
EARLY THIS MORNING AS CLOUD DECK SCATTERS OUT AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO
YESTERDAYS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/BR WITH IFR/LIFR
STILL LIKELY AT LEAST FOR A TIME AT MPV/SLK.

ANY FOG/BR LIFTS AND SCATTERS OUT AFTER 12Z WITH ONLY SCATTERED
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF TODAY. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE EARLY (EXCEPT SE 4-5KT AT RUT) TURN WESTERLY ON
SUNDAY...BUT REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 050609
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
209 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPDATED POP FCST TO MATCH CRNT RADAR
TRENDS. ALSO, INCREASED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG OVERNIGHT AND
BUMPED TEMPS UP SEVERAL DEGREES. CRNT RADAR SHOWS BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
UPSTREAM OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY. THESE SHOWERS WILL IMPACT
NORTHERN NY/VT THRU EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE DISSIPATING.
OTHERWISE...PATCHY FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED IN THE DEEPER
PROTECTED VALLEYS AND WILL CONTINUE...WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60F.

AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTERNOON MOVED INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING...AND IS NOW DIMINISHING IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT GRADUALLY DEPRESSES
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL VERMONT AND ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK.
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS ACCORDING TO
RADAR ESTIMATES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN
PARTS OF ESSEX AND CLINTON COUNTIES IN NEW YORK. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS AREA OF SHOWERS
SETTLES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. BUT THE THREAT FOR A FEW MORE
POPUP SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AREAWIDE AS
UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY EAST ACROSS REGION. HAVE MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.
WITH TODAYS RAINFALL AND EXPECTATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
CLEARING LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG TO
FORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE CLIMO FAVORED MOUNTAIN AND RIVER
VALLEYS. TEMP FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SATURDAY...MODELS SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ON
SUNDAY AND THEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON MONDAY. MAINLY
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
BEGINS ON TUESDAY WHERE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER
IN THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR
TUESDAY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY LEADING TO THE CHANCE FOR SOME POPUP TSRA, BUT THE
TIMING OF THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT DIFFERS. 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OFFERING A LATER FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING MID-DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO TO
SHOW A FASTER ARRIVAL TIME TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES, SO HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST A BLEND WITH SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN A LITTLE
MORE CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY,
GUIDANCE IS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN TURNING
QUIET FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT
WITH VERY LITTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SO WE SHOULD SEE A DRY END TO THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES, HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR
EARLY THIS MORNING AS CLOUD DECK SCATTERS OUT AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO
YESTERDAYS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/BR WITH IFR/LIFR
STILL LIKELY AT LEAST FOR A TIME AT MPV/SLK.

ANY FOG/BR LIFTS AND SCATTERS OUT AFTER 12Z WITH ONLY SCATTERED
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF TODAY. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE EARLY (EXCEPT SE 4-5KT AT RUT) TURN WESTERLY ON
SUNDAY...BUT REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 050609
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
209 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPDATED POP FCST TO MATCH CRNT RADAR
TRENDS. ALSO, INCREASED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG OVERNIGHT AND
BUMPED TEMPS UP SEVERAL DEGREES. CRNT RADAR SHOWS BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
UPSTREAM OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY. THESE SHOWERS WILL IMPACT
NORTHERN NY/VT THRU EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE DISSIPATING.
OTHERWISE...PATCHY FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED IN THE DEEPER
PROTECTED VALLEYS AND WILL CONTINUE...WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60F.

AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTERNOON MOVED INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING...AND IS NOW DIMINISHING IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT GRADUALLY DEPRESSES
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL VERMONT AND ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK.
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS ACCORDING TO
RADAR ESTIMATES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN
PARTS OF ESSEX AND CLINTON COUNTIES IN NEW YORK. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS AREA OF SHOWERS
SETTLES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. BUT THE THREAT FOR A FEW MORE
POPUP SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AREAWIDE AS
UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY EAST ACROSS REGION. HAVE MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.
WITH TODAYS RAINFALL AND EXPECTATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
CLEARING LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG TO
FORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE CLIMO FAVORED MOUNTAIN AND RIVER
VALLEYS. TEMP FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SATURDAY...MODELS SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ON
SUNDAY AND THEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON MONDAY. MAINLY
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
BEGINS ON TUESDAY WHERE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER
IN THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR
TUESDAY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY LEADING TO THE CHANCE FOR SOME POPUP TSRA, BUT THE
TIMING OF THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT DIFFERS. 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OFFERING A LATER FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING MID-DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO TO
SHOW A FASTER ARRIVAL TIME TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES, SO HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST A BLEND WITH SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN A LITTLE
MORE CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY,
GUIDANCE IS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN TURNING
QUIET FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT
WITH VERY LITTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SO WE SHOULD SEE A DRY END TO THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES, HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR
EARLY THIS MORNING AS CLOUD DECK SCATTERS OUT AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO
YESTERDAYS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/BR WITH IFR/LIFR
STILL LIKELY AT LEAST FOR A TIME AT MPV/SLK.

ANY FOG/BR LIFTS AND SCATTERS OUT AFTER 12Z WITH ONLY SCATTERED
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF TODAY. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE EARLY (EXCEPT SE 4-5KT AT RUT) TURN WESTERLY ON
SUNDAY...BUT REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 050609
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
209 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPDATED POP FCST TO MATCH CRNT RADAR
TRENDS. ALSO, INCREASED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG OVERNIGHT AND
BUMPED TEMPS UP SEVERAL DEGREES. CRNT RADAR SHOWS BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
UPSTREAM OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY. THESE SHOWERS WILL IMPACT
NORTHERN NY/VT THRU EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE DISSIPATING.
OTHERWISE...PATCHY FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED IN THE DEEPER
PROTECTED VALLEYS AND WILL CONTINUE...WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60F.

AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTERNOON MOVED INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING...AND IS NOW DIMINISHING IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT GRADUALLY DEPRESSES
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL VERMONT AND ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK.
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS ACCORDING TO
RADAR ESTIMATES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN
PARTS OF ESSEX AND CLINTON COUNTIES IN NEW YORK. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS AREA OF SHOWERS
SETTLES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. BUT THE THREAT FOR A FEW MORE
POPUP SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AREAWIDE AS
UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY EAST ACROSS REGION. HAVE MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.
WITH TODAYS RAINFALL AND EXPECTATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
CLEARING LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG TO
FORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE CLIMO FAVORED MOUNTAIN AND RIVER
VALLEYS. TEMP FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SATURDAY...MODELS SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ON
SUNDAY AND THEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON MONDAY. MAINLY
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
BEGINS ON TUESDAY WHERE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER
IN THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR
TUESDAY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY LEADING TO THE CHANCE FOR SOME POPUP TSRA, BUT THE
TIMING OF THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT DIFFERS. 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OFFERING A LATER FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING MID-DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO TO
SHOW A FASTER ARRIVAL TIME TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES, SO HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST A BLEND WITH SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN A LITTLE
MORE CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY,
GUIDANCE IS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN TURNING
QUIET FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT
WITH VERY LITTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SO WE SHOULD SEE A DRY END TO THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES, HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR
EARLY THIS MORNING AS CLOUD DECK SCATTERS OUT AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO
YESTERDAYS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/BR WITH IFR/LIFR
STILL LIKELY AT LEAST FOR A TIME AT MPV/SLK.

ANY FOG/BR LIFTS AND SCATTERS OUT AFTER 12Z WITH ONLY SCATTERED
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF TODAY. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE EARLY (EXCEPT SE 4-5KT AT RUT) TURN WESTERLY ON
SUNDAY...BUT REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KALY 050523
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
123 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL EXIT THE
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER TO RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF MIDNIGHT EDT...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DACKS WITH RECENT HIRES SCANS SUGGESTING A
WEAKENING TREND. SO WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF
DIMINISHING POPS/WX. PER OBSERVATIONS AND SPOTTER REPORTS...WE
WILL ENHANCE THE MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS. OTHERWISE...JUST A REFRESH OF HOURLY OBSERVATIONS
AND TRENDS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA WILL CLEAR
OUT OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND ALL SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
LATE. EVENTUALLY ANY LINGERING CLOUDINESS WILL DECREASE IN ALL
AREAS TONIGHT...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MAINLY CLEAR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PER THE NCEP
MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND
INCREASINGLY WARMER TEMPERATURES /AND HUMIDITY/ AS H850 TEMPS
MODERATE INTO THE MID TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO
THE 80S MOST PLACES ON MONDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY JULY
SUNSHINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
LOW WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. HAVE FORECAST CLOUDS TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT WILL BECOME
VERY HUMID MONDAY NIGHT AND TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP TO LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD.

THE EXTENDED STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE...
CREATING A SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO APPROACH
THE REGION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS IT TURNS MORE HUMID.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PASSAGE
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. IT LOOKS TO COMES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY...SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN ALL DAY...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH A PRETTY GOOD WIND
FIELD ALOFT...WE WILL HAVE WATCH TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY COMES
INTO PLAY...AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
TO LOCALLY SEVERE. IF THE FRONT WERE TO MOVE A LITTLE FAST (AS THE
12Z GFS AND ECMWF WOULD IMPLY) THERE WOULD LESS INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH. IF THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE 12Z CANADIAN
MODEL WORKS OUT...THERE WOULD MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR
INSTABILITY/STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

EITHER WAY...ALL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
OUR REGION BY THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER
HUMIDITY TO WORK IN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES.

BY SUNDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED ANOTHER TROUGH TO
BEGIN CARVING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS WAS A LITTLE
FLATTER AND NORTH WITH THIS IDEA WHILE THE ECMWF HAD A MUCH DEEPER
TROUGH ANCHORED FURTHER WEST WITH A GIANT UPPER AIR LOW CLOSE TO
JAMES BAY. FOR NOW...WE WILL GO WITH THE IDEA ANOTHER COLD
FRONT/SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO SLOWLY APPROACH OUR REGION SUNDAY WITH
AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND AT LEAST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM LOWER TO MID 80S EACH
DAY IN THE VALLEYS...75 TO 80 HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID OR UPPER 50S IN OUTLYING AREAS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS THANKS TO THE RAINFALL ON SATURDAY...LIFR/IFR
FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT ALL TAF SITES AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VISIBILITY
COULD BE AS LOW AS 1/4SM...ESP FOR KPSF/KGFL.

FOG SHOULD START TO BREAK UP BY 10Z-12Z...AND MOST SITES LOOK TO
BE VFR AFTER 12Z WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT W-SW WIND
DEVELOPING. SOME DIURNAL CU AT 5-6 KFT WILL FORM DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...BUT IT WILL BE VFR ALL DAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 5-10
KTS BY AFTN.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON SUNDAY EVENING...AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.
IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BUT SOME MORE
FOG/MIST WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY FOR KGFL/KPSF...FOR
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES
AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THEN GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALTHOUGH RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO A HALF
INCH OR A LITTLE MORE FELL IN SOME AREAS TODAY...THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE REGION HAD LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH LITTLE OR
NO RAINFALL OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS RAINFALL HAD LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 050523
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
123 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL EXIT THE
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER TO RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF MIDNIGHT EDT...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DACKS WITH RECENT HIRES SCANS SUGGESTING A
WEAKENING TREND. SO WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF
DIMINISHING POPS/WX. PER OBSERVATIONS AND SPOTTER REPORTS...WE
WILL ENHANCE THE MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS. OTHERWISE...JUST A REFRESH OF HOURLY OBSERVATIONS
AND TRENDS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA WILL CLEAR
OUT OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND ALL SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
LATE. EVENTUALLY ANY LINGERING CLOUDINESS WILL DECREASE IN ALL
AREAS TONIGHT...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MAINLY CLEAR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PER THE NCEP
MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND
INCREASINGLY WARMER TEMPERATURES /AND HUMIDITY/ AS H850 TEMPS
MODERATE INTO THE MID TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO
THE 80S MOST PLACES ON MONDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY JULY
SUNSHINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
LOW WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. HAVE FORECAST CLOUDS TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT WILL BECOME
VERY HUMID MONDAY NIGHT AND TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP TO LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD.

THE EXTENDED STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE...
CREATING A SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO APPROACH
THE REGION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS IT TURNS MORE HUMID.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PASSAGE
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. IT LOOKS TO COMES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY...SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN ALL DAY...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH A PRETTY GOOD WIND
FIELD ALOFT...WE WILL HAVE WATCH TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY COMES
INTO PLAY...AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
TO LOCALLY SEVERE. IF THE FRONT WERE TO MOVE A LITTLE FAST (AS THE
12Z GFS AND ECMWF WOULD IMPLY) THERE WOULD LESS INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH. IF THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE 12Z CANADIAN
MODEL WORKS OUT...THERE WOULD MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR
INSTABILITY/STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

EITHER WAY...ALL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
OUR REGION BY THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER
HUMIDITY TO WORK IN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES.

BY SUNDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED ANOTHER TROUGH TO
BEGIN CARVING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS WAS A LITTLE
FLATTER AND NORTH WITH THIS IDEA WHILE THE ECMWF HAD A MUCH DEEPER
TROUGH ANCHORED FURTHER WEST WITH A GIANT UPPER AIR LOW CLOSE TO
JAMES BAY. FOR NOW...WE WILL GO WITH THE IDEA ANOTHER COLD
FRONT/SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO SLOWLY APPROACH OUR REGION SUNDAY WITH
AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND AT LEAST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM LOWER TO MID 80S EACH
DAY IN THE VALLEYS...75 TO 80 HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID OR UPPER 50S IN OUTLYING AREAS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS THANKS TO THE RAINFALL ON SATURDAY...LIFR/IFR
FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT ALL TAF SITES AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VISIBILITY
COULD BE AS LOW AS 1/4SM...ESP FOR KPSF/KGFL.

FOG SHOULD START TO BREAK UP BY 10Z-12Z...AND MOST SITES LOOK TO
BE VFR AFTER 12Z WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT W-SW WIND
DEVELOPING. SOME DIURNAL CU AT 5-6 KFT WILL FORM DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...BUT IT WILL BE VFR ALL DAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 5-10
KTS BY AFTN.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON SUNDAY EVENING...AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.
IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BUT SOME MORE
FOG/MIST WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY FOR KGFL/KPSF...FOR
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES
AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THEN GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALTHOUGH RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO A HALF
INCH OR A LITTLE MORE FELL IN SOME AREAS TODAY...THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE REGION HAD LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH LITTLE OR
NO RAINFALL OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS RAINFALL HAD LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 050523
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
123 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL EXIT THE
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER TO RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF MIDNIGHT EDT...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DACKS WITH RECENT HIRES SCANS SUGGESTING A
WEAKENING TREND. SO WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF
DIMINISHING POPS/WX. PER OBSERVATIONS AND SPOTTER REPORTS...WE
WILL ENHANCE THE MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS. OTHERWISE...JUST A REFRESH OF HOURLY OBSERVATIONS
AND TRENDS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA WILL CLEAR
OUT OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND ALL SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
LATE. EVENTUALLY ANY LINGERING CLOUDINESS WILL DECREASE IN ALL
AREAS TONIGHT...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MAINLY CLEAR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PER THE NCEP
MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND
INCREASINGLY WARMER TEMPERATURES /AND HUMIDITY/ AS H850 TEMPS
MODERATE INTO THE MID TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO
THE 80S MOST PLACES ON MONDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY JULY
SUNSHINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
LOW WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. HAVE FORECAST CLOUDS TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT WILL BECOME
VERY HUMID MONDAY NIGHT AND TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP TO LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD.

THE EXTENDED STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE...
CREATING A SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO APPROACH
THE REGION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS IT TURNS MORE HUMID.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PASSAGE
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. IT LOOKS TO COMES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY...SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN ALL DAY...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH A PRETTY GOOD WIND
FIELD ALOFT...WE WILL HAVE WATCH TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY COMES
INTO PLAY...AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
TO LOCALLY SEVERE. IF THE FRONT WERE TO MOVE A LITTLE FAST (AS THE
12Z GFS AND ECMWF WOULD IMPLY) THERE WOULD LESS INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH. IF THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE 12Z CANADIAN
MODEL WORKS OUT...THERE WOULD MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR
INSTABILITY/STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

EITHER WAY...ALL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
OUR REGION BY THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER
HUMIDITY TO WORK IN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES.

BY SUNDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED ANOTHER TROUGH TO
BEGIN CARVING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS WAS A LITTLE
FLATTER AND NORTH WITH THIS IDEA WHILE THE ECMWF HAD A MUCH DEEPER
TROUGH ANCHORED FURTHER WEST WITH A GIANT UPPER AIR LOW CLOSE TO
JAMES BAY. FOR NOW...WE WILL GO WITH THE IDEA ANOTHER COLD
FRONT/SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO SLOWLY APPROACH OUR REGION SUNDAY WITH
AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND AT LEAST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM LOWER TO MID 80S EACH
DAY IN THE VALLEYS...75 TO 80 HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID OR UPPER 50S IN OUTLYING AREAS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS THANKS TO THE RAINFALL ON SATURDAY...LIFR/IFR
FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT ALL TAF SITES AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VISIBILITY
COULD BE AS LOW AS 1/4SM...ESP FOR KPSF/KGFL.

FOG SHOULD START TO BREAK UP BY 10Z-12Z...AND MOST SITES LOOK TO
BE VFR AFTER 12Z WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT W-SW WIND
DEVELOPING. SOME DIURNAL CU AT 5-6 KFT WILL FORM DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...BUT IT WILL BE VFR ALL DAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 5-10
KTS BY AFTN.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON SUNDAY EVENING...AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.
IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BUT SOME MORE
FOG/MIST WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY FOR KGFL/KPSF...FOR
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES
AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THEN GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALTHOUGH RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO A HALF
INCH OR A LITTLE MORE FELL IN SOME AREAS TODAY...THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE REGION HAD LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH LITTLE OR
NO RAINFALL OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS RAINFALL HAD LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 050523
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
123 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL EXIT THE
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER TO RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF MIDNIGHT EDT...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DACKS WITH RECENT HIRES SCANS SUGGESTING A
WEAKENING TREND. SO WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF
DIMINISHING POPS/WX. PER OBSERVATIONS AND SPOTTER REPORTS...WE
WILL ENHANCE THE MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS. OTHERWISE...JUST A REFRESH OF HOURLY OBSERVATIONS
AND TRENDS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA WILL CLEAR
OUT OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND ALL SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
LATE. EVENTUALLY ANY LINGERING CLOUDINESS WILL DECREASE IN ALL
AREAS TONIGHT...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MAINLY CLEAR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PER THE NCEP
MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND
INCREASINGLY WARMER TEMPERATURES /AND HUMIDITY/ AS H850 TEMPS
MODERATE INTO THE MID TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO
THE 80S MOST PLACES ON MONDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY JULY
SUNSHINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
LOW WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. HAVE FORECAST CLOUDS TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT WILL BECOME
VERY HUMID MONDAY NIGHT AND TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP TO LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD.

THE EXTENDED STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE...
CREATING A SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO APPROACH
THE REGION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS IT TURNS MORE HUMID.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PASSAGE
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. IT LOOKS TO COMES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY...SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN ALL DAY...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH A PRETTY GOOD WIND
FIELD ALOFT...WE WILL HAVE WATCH TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY COMES
INTO PLAY...AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
TO LOCALLY SEVERE. IF THE FRONT WERE TO MOVE A LITTLE FAST (AS THE
12Z GFS AND ECMWF WOULD IMPLY) THERE WOULD LESS INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH. IF THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE 12Z CANADIAN
MODEL WORKS OUT...THERE WOULD MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR
INSTABILITY/STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

EITHER WAY...ALL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
OUR REGION BY THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER
HUMIDITY TO WORK IN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES.

BY SUNDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED ANOTHER TROUGH TO
BEGIN CARVING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS WAS A LITTLE
FLATTER AND NORTH WITH THIS IDEA WHILE THE ECMWF HAD A MUCH DEEPER
TROUGH ANCHORED FURTHER WEST WITH A GIANT UPPER AIR LOW CLOSE TO
JAMES BAY. FOR NOW...WE WILL GO WITH THE IDEA ANOTHER COLD
FRONT/SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO SLOWLY APPROACH OUR REGION SUNDAY WITH
AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND AT LEAST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM LOWER TO MID 80S EACH
DAY IN THE VALLEYS...75 TO 80 HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID OR UPPER 50S IN OUTLYING AREAS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS THANKS TO THE RAINFALL ON SATURDAY...LIFR/IFR
FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT ALL TAF SITES AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VISIBILITY
COULD BE AS LOW AS 1/4SM...ESP FOR KPSF/KGFL.

FOG SHOULD START TO BREAK UP BY 10Z-12Z...AND MOST SITES LOOK TO
BE VFR AFTER 12Z WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT W-SW WIND
DEVELOPING. SOME DIURNAL CU AT 5-6 KFT WILL FORM DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...BUT IT WILL BE VFR ALL DAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 5-10
KTS BY AFTN.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON SUNDAY EVENING...AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.
IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BUT SOME MORE
FOG/MIST WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY FOR KGFL/KPSF...FOR
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES
AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THEN GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALTHOUGH RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO A HALF
INCH OR A LITTLE MORE FELL IN SOME AREAS TODAY...THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE REGION HAD LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH LITTLE OR
NO RAINFALL OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS RAINFALL HAD LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM



000
FXUS61 KBTV 050458
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1258 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPDATED POP FCST TO MATCH CRNT RADAR
TRENDS. ALSO, INCREASED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG OVERNIGHT AND
BUMPED TEMPS UP SEVERAL DEGREES. CRNT RADAR SHOWS BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
UPSTREAM OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY. THESE SHOWERS WILL IMPACT
NORTHERN NY/VT THRU EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE DISSIPATING.
OTHERWISE...PATCHY FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED IN THE DEEPER
PROTECTED VALLEYS AND WILL CONTINUE...WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60F.

AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTERNOON MOVED INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING...AND IS NOW DIMINISHING IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT GRADUALLY DEPRESSES
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL VERMONT AND ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK.
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS ACCORDING TO
RADAR ESTIMATES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN
PARTS OF ESSEX AND CLINTON COUNTIES IN NEW YORK. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS AREA OF SHOWERS
SETTLES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. BUT THE THREAT FOR A FEW MORE
POPUP SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AREAWIDE AS
UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY EAST ACROSS REGION. HAVE MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.
WITH TODAYS RAINFALL AND EXPECTATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
CLEARING LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG TO
FORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE CLIMO FAVORED MOUNTAIN AND RIVER
VALLEYS. TEMP FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SATURDAY...MODELS SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ON
SUNDAY AND THEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON MONDAY. MAINLY
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
BEGINS ON TUESDAY WHERE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER
IN THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR
TUESDAY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY LEADING TO THE CHANCE FOR SOME POPUP TSRA, BUT THE
TIMING OF THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT DIFFERS. 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OFFERING A LATER FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING MID-DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO TO
SHOW A FASTER ARRIVAL TIME TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES, SO HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST A BLEND WITH SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN A LITTLE
MORE CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY,
GUIDANCE IS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN TURNING
QUIET FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT
WITH VERY LITTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SO WE SHOULD SEE A DRY END TO THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES, HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR IN LINGERING SHOWERS
THIS EVENING AND PERIOD OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR
OVERNIGHT. LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THIS EVENING...BUT WILL STILL BRING
A PERIOD OF RAIN TO MPV...WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR
(AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY IFR). OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL IMPACTS
EXPECTED AT OTHER TAF SITES. CLOUD DECK SCATTERS OUT
OVERNIGHT...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO TODAYS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG/BR OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. COVERAGE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME WIND REMAINING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...BUT IFR/LIFR STILL LIKELY AT LEAST FOR A TIME AT MPV/SLK.
SOME BRIEF MVFR ALSO POSSIBLE AT PBG. NO FOG/BR FORECAST AT
BTV/RUT/MSS. ANY FOG/BR LIFTS AND SCATTERS OUT AFTER 12Z WITH ONLY
SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED FOR LATER SUNDAY. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 4-5KT AT RUT) TURN WESTERLY
ON SUNDAY...BUT REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 050458
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1258 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPDATED POP FCST TO MATCH CRNT RADAR
TRENDS. ALSO, INCREASED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG OVERNIGHT AND
BUMPED TEMPS UP SEVERAL DEGREES. CRNT RADAR SHOWS BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
UPSTREAM OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY. THESE SHOWERS WILL IMPACT
NORTHERN NY/VT THRU EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE DISSIPATING.
OTHERWISE...PATCHY FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED IN THE DEEPER
PROTECTED VALLEYS AND WILL CONTINUE...WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60F.

AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTERNOON MOVED INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING...AND IS NOW DIMINISHING IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT GRADUALLY DEPRESSES
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL VERMONT AND ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK.
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS ACCORDING TO
RADAR ESTIMATES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN
PARTS OF ESSEX AND CLINTON COUNTIES IN NEW YORK. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS AREA OF SHOWERS
SETTLES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. BUT THE THREAT FOR A FEW MORE
POPUP SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AREAWIDE AS
UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY EAST ACROSS REGION. HAVE MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.
WITH TODAYS RAINFALL AND EXPECTATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
CLEARING LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG TO
FORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE CLIMO FAVORED MOUNTAIN AND RIVER
VALLEYS. TEMP FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SATURDAY...MODELS SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ON
SUNDAY AND THEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON MONDAY. MAINLY
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
BEGINS ON TUESDAY WHERE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER
IN THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR
TUESDAY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY LEADING TO THE CHANCE FOR SOME POPUP TSRA, BUT THE
TIMING OF THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT DIFFERS. 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OFFERING A LATER FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING MID-DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO TO
SHOW A FASTER ARRIVAL TIME TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES, SO HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST A BLEND WITH SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN A LITTLE
MORE CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY,
GUIDANCE IS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN TURNING
QUIET FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT
WITH VERY LITTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SO WE SHOULD SEE A DRY END TO THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES, HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR IN LINGERING SHOWERS
THIS EVENING AND PERIOD OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR
OVERNIGHT. LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THIS EVENING...BUT WILL STILL BRING
A PERIOD OF RAIN TO MPV...WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR
(AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY IFR). OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL IMPACTS
EXPECTED AT OTHER TAF SITES. CLOUD DECK SCATTERS OUT
OVERNIGHT...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO TODAYS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG/BR OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. COVERAGE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME WIND REMAINING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...BUT IFR/LIFR STILL LIKELY AT LEAST FOR A TIME AT MPV/SLK.
SOME BRIEF MVFR ALSO POSSIBLE AT PBG. NO FOG/BR FORECAST AT
BTV/RUT/MSS. ANY FOG/BR LIFTS AND SCATTERS OUT AFTER 12Z WITH ONLY
SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED FOR LATER SUNDAY. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 4-5KT AT RUT) TURN WESTERLY
ON SUNDAY...BUT REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KALY 050418
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1218 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL EXIT THE
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER TO RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF MIDNIGHT EDT...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DACKS WITH RECENT HIRES SCANS SUGGESTING A
WEAKENING TREND. SO WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF
DIMINISHING POPS/WX. PER OBSERVATIONS AND SPOTTER REPORTS...WE
WILL ENHANCE THE MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS. OTHERWISE...JUST A REFRESH OF HOURLY OBSERVATIONS
AND TRENDS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA WILL CLEAR
OUT OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND ALL SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
LATE. EVENTUALLY ANY LINGERING CLOUDINESS WILL DECREASE IN ALL
AREAS TONIGHT...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MAINLY CLEAR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PER THE NCEP
MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND
INCREASINGLY WARMER TEMPERATURES /AND HUMIDITY/ AS H850 TEMPS
MODERATE INTO THE MID TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO
THE 80S MOST PLACES ON MONDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY JULY
SUNSHINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
LOW WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. HAVE FORECAST CLOUDS TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT WILL BECOME
VERY HUMID MONDAY NIGHT AND TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP TO LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD.

THE EXTENDED STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE...
CREATING A SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO APPROACH
THE REGION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS IT TURNS MORE HUMID.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PASSAGE
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. IT LOOKS TO COMES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY...SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN ALL DAY...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH A PRETTY GOOD WIND
FIELD ALOFT...WE WILL HAVE WATCH TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY COMES
INTO PLAY...AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
TO LOCALLY SEVERE. IF THE FRONT WERE TO MOVE A LITTLE FAST (AS THE
12Z GFS AND ECMWF WOULD IMPLY) THERE WOULD LESS INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH. IF THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE 12Z CANADIAN
MODEL WORKS OUT...THERE WOULD MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR
INSTABILITY/STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

EITHER WAY...ALL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
OUR REGION BY THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER
HUMIDITY TO WORK IN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES.

BY SUNDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED ANOTHER TROUGH TO
BEGIN CARVING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS WAS A LITTLE
FLATTER AND NORTH WITH THIS IDEA WHILE THE ECMWF HAD A MUCH DEEPER
TROUGH ANCHORED FURTHER WEST WITH A GIANT UPPER AIR LOW CLOSE TO
JAMES BAY. FOR NOW...WE WILL GO WITH THE IDEA ANOTHER COLD
FRONT/SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO SLOWLY APPROACH OUR REGION SUNDAY WITH
AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND AT LEAST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM LOWER TO MID 80S EACH
DAY IN THE VALLEYS...75 TO 80 HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID OR UPPER 50S IN OUTLYING AREAS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STEADY RAINFALL FROM EARLIER HAS ENDED...WITH CLEARING SKIES
ALREADY OCCURRING AT THE KALB/KPOU/KPSF/KGFL TERMINALS EARLY THIS
EVENING. DUE TO WET GROUND CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LOW
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS...FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MVFR AND EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. DRIER AIR WILL START TO WORK IN LATE...BUT
IS CURRENTLY STILL WELL WEST OF THE REGION AND WILL TAKE SEVERAL
HOURS TO MOVE IN. SO CONFIDENCE IN FOG IS MODERATE BUT NOT HIGH AT
THIS TIME. FOG COULD START BEFORE MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ANY FOG AND IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITHIN A
FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RESULTING IN PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWEST AROUND 5-7 KTS ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES
AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THEN GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALTHOUGH RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO A HALF
INCH OR A LITTLE MORE FELL IN SOME AREAS TODAY...THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE REGION HAD LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH LITTLE OR
NO RAINFALL OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS RAINFALL HAD LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 050418
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1218 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL EXIT THE
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER TO RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF MIDNIGHT EDT...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DACKS WITH RECENT HIRES SCANS SUGGESTING A
WEAKENING TREND. SO WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF
DIMINISHING POPS/WX. PER OBSERVATIONS AND SPOTTER REPORTS...WE
WILL ENHANCE THE MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS. OTHERWISE...JUST A REFRESH OF HOURLY OBSERVATIONS
AND TRENDS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA WILL CLEAR
OUT OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND ALL SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
LATE. EVENTUALLY ANY LINGERING CLOUDINESS WILL DECREASE IN ALL
AREAS TONIGHT...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MAINLY CLEAR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PER THE NCEP
MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND
INCREASINGLY WARMER TEMPERATURES /AND HUMIDITY/ AS H850 TEMPS
MODERATE INTO THE MID TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO
THE 80S MOST PLACES ON MONDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY JULY
SUNSHINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
LOW WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. HAVE FORECAST CLOUDS TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT WILL BECOME
VERY HUMID MONDAY NIGHT AND TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP TO LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD.

THE EXTENDED STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE...
CREATING A SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO APPROACH
THE REGION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS IT TURNS MORE HUMID.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PASSAGE
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. IT LOOKS TO COMES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY...SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN ALL DAY...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH A PRETTY GOOD WIND
FIELD ALOFT...WE WILL HAVE WATCH TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY COMES
INTO PLAY...AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
TO LOCALLY SEVERE. IF THE FRONT WERE TO MOVE A LITTLE FAST (AS THE
12Z GFS AND ECMWF WOULD IMPLY) THERE WOULD LESS INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH. IF THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE 12Z CANADIAN
MODEL WORKS OUT...THERE WOULD MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR
INSTABILITY/STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

EITHER WAY...ALL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
OUR REGION BY THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER
HUMIDITY TO WORK IN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES.

BY SUNDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED ANOTHER TROUGH TO
BEGIN CARVING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS WAS A LITTLE
FLATTER AND NORTH WITH THIS IDEA WHILE THE ECMWF HAD A MUCH DEEPER
TROUGH ANCHORED FURTHER WEST WITH A GIANT UPPER AIR LOW CLOSE TO
JAMES BAY. FOR NOW...WE WILL GO WITH THE IDEA ANOTHER COLD
FRONT/SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO SLOWLY APPROACH OUR REGION SUNDAY WITH
AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND AT LEAST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM LOWER TO MID 80S EACH
DAY IN THE VALLEYS...75 TO 80 HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID OR UPPER 50S IN OUTLYING AREAS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STEADY RAINFALL FROM EARLIER HAS ENDED...WITH CLEARING SKIES
ALREADY OCCURRING AT THE KALB/KPOU/KPSF/KGFL TERMINALS EARLY THIS
EVENING. DUE TO WET GROUND CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LOW
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS...FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MVFR AND EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. DRIER AIR WILL START TO WORK IN LATE...BUT
IS CURRENTLY STILL WELL WEST OF THE REGION AND WILL TAKE SEVERAL
HOURS TO MOVE IN. SO CONFIDENCE IN FOG IS MODERATE BUT NOT HIGH AT
THIS TIME. FOG COULD START BEFORE MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ANY FOG AND IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITHIN A
FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RESULTING IN PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWEST AROUND 5-7 KTS ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES
AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THEN GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALTHOUGH RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO A HALF
INCH OR A LITTLE MORE FELL IN SOME AREAS TODAY...THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE REGION HAD LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH LITTLE OR
NO RAINFALL OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS RAINFALL HAD LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 050418
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1218 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL EXIT THE
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER TO RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF MIDNIGHT EDT...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DACKS WITH RECENT HIRES SCANS SUGGESTING A
WEAKENING TREND. SO WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF
DIMINISHING POPS/WX. PER OBSERVATIONS AND SPOTTER REPORTS...WE
WILL ENHANCE THE MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS. OTHERWISE...JUST A REFRESH OF HOURLY OBSERVATIONS
AND TRENDS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA WILL CLEAR
OUT OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND ALL SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
LATE. EVENTUALLY ANY LINGERING CLOUDINESS WILL DECREASE IN ALL
AREAS TONIGHT...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MAINLY CLEAR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PER THE NCEP
MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND
INCREASINGLY WARMER TEMPERATURES /AND HUMIDITY/ AS H850 TEMPS
MODERATE INTO THE MID TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO
THE 80S MOST PLACES ON MONDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY JULY
SUNSHINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
LOW WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. HAVE FORECAST CLOUDS TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT WILL BECOME
VERY HUMID MONDAY NIGHT AND TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP TO LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD.

THE EXTENDED STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE...
CREATING A SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO APPROACH
THE REGION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS IT TURNS MORE HUMID.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PASSAGE
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. IT LOOKS TO COMES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY...SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN ALL DAY...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH A PRETTY GOOD WIND
FIELD ALOFT...WE WILL HAVE WATCH TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY COMES
INTO PLAY...AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
TO LOCALLY SEVERE. IF THE FRONT WERE TO MOVE A LITTLE FAST (AS THE
12Z GFS AND ECMWF WOULD IMPLY) THERE WOULD LESS INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH. IF THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE 12Z CANADIAN
MODEL WORKS OUT...THERE WOULD MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR
INSTABILITY/STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

EITHER WAY...ALL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
OUR REGION BY THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER
HUMIDITY TO WORK IN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES.

BY SUNDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED ANOTHER TROUGH TO
BEGIN CARVING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS WAS A LITTLE
FLATTER AND NORTH WITH THIS IDEA WHILE THE ECMWF HAD A MUCH DEEPER
TROUGH ANCHORED FURTHER WEST WITH A GIANT UPPER AIR LOW CLOSE TO
JAMES BAY. FOR NOW...WE WILL GO WITH THE IDEA ANOTHER COLD
FRONT/SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO SLOWLY APPROACH OUR REGION SUNDAY WITH
AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND AT LEAST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM LOWER TO MID 80S EACH
DAY IN THE VALLEYS...75 TO 80 HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID OR UPPER 50S IN OUTLYING AREAS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STEADY RAINFALL FROM EARLIER HAS ENDED...WITH CLEARING SKIES
ALREADY OCCURRING AT THE KALB/KPOU/KPSF/KGFL TERMINALS EARLY THIS
EVENING. DUE TO WET GROUND CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LOW
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS...FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MVFR AND EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. DRIER AIR WILL START TO WORK IN LATE...BUT
IS CURRENTLY STILL WELL WEST OF THE REGION AND WILL TAKE SEVERAL
HOURS TO MOVE IN. SO CONFIDENCE IN FOG IS MODERATE BUT NOT HIGH AT
THIS TIME. FOG COULD START BEFORE MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ANY FOG AND IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITHIN A
FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RESULTING IN PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWEST AROUND 5-7 KTS ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES
AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THEN GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALTHOUGH RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO A HALF
INCH OR A LITTLE MORE FELL IN SOME AREAS TODAY...THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE REGION HAD LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH LITTLE OR
NO RAINFALL OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS RAINFALL HAD LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 050418
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1218 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL EXIT THE
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER TO RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF MIDNIGHT EDT...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DACKS WITH RECENT HIRES SCANS SUGGESTING A
WEAKENING TREND. SO WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF
DIMINISHING POPS/WX. PER OBSERVATIONS AND SPOTTER REPORTS...WE
WILL ENHANCE THE MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS. OTHERWISE...JUST A REFRESH OF HOURLY OBSERVATIONS
AND TRENDS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA WILL CLEAR
OUT OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND ALL SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
LATE. EVENTUALLY ANY LINGERING CLOUDINESS WILL DECREASE IN ALL
AREAS TONIGHT...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MAINLY CLEAR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PER THE NCEP
MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND
INCREASINGLY WARMER TEMPERATURES /AND HUMIDITY/ AS H850 TEMPS
MODERATE INTO THE MID TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO
THE 80S MOST PLACES ON MONDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY JULY
SUNSHINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
LOW WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. HAVE FORECAST CLOUDS TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT WILL BECOME
VERY HUMID MONDAY NIGHT AND TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP TO LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD.

THE EXTENDED STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE...
CREATING A SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO APPROACH
THE REGION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS IT TURNS MORE HUMID.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PASSAGE
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. IT LOOKS TO COMES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY...SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN ALL DAY...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH A PRETTY GOOD WIND
FIELD ALOFT...WE WILL HAVE WATCH TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY COMES
INTO PLAY...AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
TO LOCALLY SEVERE. IF THE FRONT WERE TO MOVE A LITTLE FAST (AS THE
12Z GFS AND ECMWF WOULD IMPLY) THERE WOULD LESS INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH. IF THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE 12Z CANADIAN
MODEL WORKS OUT...THERE WOULD MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR
INSTABILITY/STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

EITHER WAY...ALL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
OUR REGION BY THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER
HUMIDITY TO WORK IN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES.

BY SUNDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED ANOTHER TROUGH TO
BEGIN CARVING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS WAS A LITTLE
FLATTER AND NORTH WITH THIS IDEA WHILE THE ECMWF HAD A MUCH DEEPER
TROUGH ANCHORED FURTHER WEST WITH A GIANT UPPER AIR LOW CLOSE TO
JAMES BAY. FOR NOW...WE WILL GO WITH THE IDEA ANOTHER COLD
FRONT/SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO SLOWLY APPROACH OUR REGION SUNDAY WITH
AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND AT LEAST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM LOWER TO MID 80S EACH
DAY IN THE VALLEYS...75 TO 80 HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID OR UPPER 50S IN OUTLYING AREAS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STEADY RAINFALL FROM EARLIER HAS ENDED...WITH CLEARING SKIES
ALREADY OCCURRING AT THE KALB/KPOU/KPSF/KGFL TERMINALS EARLY THIS
EVENING. DUE TO WET GROUND CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LOW
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS...FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MVFR AND EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. DRIER AIR WILL START TO WORK IN LATE...BUT
IS CURRENTLY STILL WELL WEST OF THE REGION AND WILL TAKE SEVERAL
HOURS TO MOVE IN. SO CONFIDENCE IN FOG IS MODERATE BUT NOT HIGH AT
THIS TIME. FOG COULD START BEFORE MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ANY FOG AND IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITHIN A
FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RESULTING IN PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWEST AROUND 5-7 KTS ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES
AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THEN GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALTHOUGH RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO A HALF
INCH OR A LITTLE MORE FELL IN SOME AREAS TODAY...THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE REGION HAD LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH LITTLE OR
NO RAINFALL OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS RAINFALL HAD LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 050418
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1218 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL EXIT THE
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER TO RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF MIDNIGHT EDT...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DACKS WITH RECENT HIRES SCANS SUGGESTING A
WEAKENING TREND. SO WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF
DIMINISHING POPS/WX. PER OBSERVATIONS AND SPOTTER REPORTS...WE
WILL ENHANCE THE MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS. OTHERWISE...JUST A REFRESH OF HOURLY OBSERVATIONS
AND TRENDS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA WILL CLEAR
OUT OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND ALL SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
LATE. EVENTUALLY ANY LINGERING CLOUDINESS WILL DECREASE IN ALL
AREAS TONIGHT...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MAINLY CLEAR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PER THE NCEP
MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND
INCREASINGLY WARMER TEMPERATURES /AND HUMIDITY/ AS H850 TEMPS
MODERATE INTO THE MID TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO
THE 80S MOST PLACES ON MONDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY JULY
SUNSHINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
LOW WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. HAVE FORECAST CLOUDS TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT WILL BECOME
VERY HUMID MONDAY NIGHT AND TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP TO LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD.

THE EXTENDED STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE...
CREATING A SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO APPROACH
THE REGION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS IT TURNS MORE HUMID.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PASSAGE
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. IT LOOKS TO COMES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY...SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN ALL DAY...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH A PRETTY GOOD WIND
FIELD ALOFT...WE WILL HAVE WATCH TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY COMES
INTO PLAY...AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
TO LOCALLY SEVERE. IF THE FRONT WERE TO MOVE A LITTLE FAST (AS THE
12Z GFS AND ECMWF WOULD IMPLY) THERE WOULD LESS INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH. IF THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE 12Z CANADIAN
MODEL WORKS OUT...THERE WOULD MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR
INSTABILITY/STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

EITHER WAY...ALL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
OUR REGION BY THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER
HUMIDITY TO WORK IN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES.

BY SUNDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED ANOTHER TROUGH TO
BEGIN CARVING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS WAS A LITTLE
FLATTER AND NORTH WITH THIS IDEA WHILE THE ECMWF HAD A MUCH DEEPER
TROUGH ANCHORED FURTHER WEST WITH A GIANT UPPER AIR LOW CLOSE TO
JAMES BAY. FOR NOW...WE WILL GO WITH THE IDEA ANOTHER COLD
FRONT/SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO SLOWLY APPROACH OUR REGION SUNDAY WITH
AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND AT LEAST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM LOWER TO MID 80S EACH
DAY IN THE VALLEYS...75 TO 80 HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID OR UPPER 50S IN OUTLYING AREAS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STEADY RAINFALL FROM EARLIER HAS ENDED...WITH CLEARING SKIES
ALREADY OCCURRING AT THE KALB/KPOU/KPSF/KGFL TERMINALS EARLY THIS
EVENING. DUE TO WET GROUND CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LOW
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS...FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MVFR AND EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. DRIER AIR WILL START TO WORK IN LATE...BUT
IS CURRENTLY STILL WELL WEST OF THE REGION AND WILL TAKE SEVERAL
HOURS TO MOVE IN. SO CONFIDENCE IN FOG IS MODERATE BUT NOT HIGH AT
THIS TIME. FOG COULD START BEFORE MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ANY FOG AND IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITHIN A
FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RESULTING IN PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWEST AROUND 5-7 KTS ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES
AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THEN GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALTHOUGH RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO A HALF
INCH OR A LITTLE MORE FELL IN SOME AREAS TODAY...THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE REGION HAD LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH LITTLE OR
NO RAINFALL OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS RAINFALL HAD LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 050418
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1218 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL EXIT THE
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER TO RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF MIDNIGHT EDT...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DACKS WITH RECENT HIRES SCANS SUGGESTING A
WEAKENING TREND. SO WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF
DIMINISHING POPS/WX. PER OBSERVATIONS AND SPOTTER REPORTS...WE
WILL ENHANCE THE MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS. OTHERWISE...JUST A REFRESH OF HOURLY OBSERVATIONS
AND TRENDS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA WILL CLEAR
OUT OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND ALL SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
LATE. EVENTUALLY ANY LINGERING CLOUDINESS WILL DECREASE IN ALL
AREAS TONIGHT...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MAINLY CLEAR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PER THE NCEP
MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND
INCREASINGLY WARMER TEMPERATURES /AND HUMIDITY/ AS H850 TEMPS
MODERATE INTO THE MID TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO
THE 80S MOST PLACES ON MONDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY JULY
SUNSHINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
LOW WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. HAVE FORECAST CLOUDS TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT WILL BECOME
VERY HUMID MONDAY NIGHT AND TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP TO LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD.

THE EXTENDED STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE...
CREATING A SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO APPROACH
THE REGION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS IT TURNS MORE HUMID.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PASSAGE
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. IT LOOKS TO COMES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY...SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN ALL DAY...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH A PRETTY GOOD WIND
FIELD ALOFT...WE WILL HAVE WATCH TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY COMES
INTO PLAY...AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
TO LOCALLY SEVERE. IF THE FRONT WERE TO MOVE A LITTLE FAST (AS THE
12Z GFS AND ECMWF WOULD IMPLY) THERE WOULD LESS INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH. IF THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE 12Z CANADIAN
MODEL WORKS OUT...THERE WOULD MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR
INSTABILITY/STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

EITHER WAY...ALL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
OUR REGION BY THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER
HUMIDITY TO WORK IN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES.

BY SUNDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED ANOTHER TROUGH TO
BEGIN CARVING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS WAS A LITTLE
FLATTER AND NORTH WITH THIS IDEA WHILE THE ECMWF HAD A MUCH DEEPER
TROUGH ANCHORED FURTHER WEST WITH A GIANT UPPER AIR LOW CLOSE TO
JAMES BAY. FOR NOW...WE WILL GO WITH THE IDEA ANOTHER COLD
FRONT/SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO SLOWLY APPROACH OUR REGION SUNDAY WITH
AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND AT LEAST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM LOWER TO MID 80S EACH
DAY IN THE VALLEYS...75 TO 80 HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID OR UPPER 50S IN OUTLYING AREAS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STEADY RAINFALL FROM EARLIER HAS ENDED...WITH CLEARING SKIES
ALREADY OCCURRING AT THE KALB/KPOU/KPSF/KGFL TERMINALS EARLY THIS
EVENING. DUE TO WET GROUND CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LOW
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS...FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MVFR AND EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. DRIER AIR WILL START TO WORK IN LATE...BUT
IS CURRENTLY STILL WELL WEST OF THE REGION AND WILL TAKE SEVERAL
HOURS TO MOVE IN. SO CONFIDENCE IN FOG IS MODERATE BUT NOT HIGH AT
THIS TIME. FOG COULD START BEFORE MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ANY FOG AND IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITHIN A
FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RESULTING IN PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWEST AROUND 5-7 KTS ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES
AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THEN GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALTHOUGH RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO A HALF
INCH OR A LITTLE MORE FELL IN SOME AREAS TODAY...THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE REGION HAD LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH LITTLE OR
NO RAINFALL OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS RAINFALL HAD LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 050250
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1050 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL EXIT THE
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER TO RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1050 PM EDT...CONVECTION FINALLY STARTING TO WEAKEN LATE
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL WAS A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WILL MAINTAIN POPS FOR THIS AREA UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE TRAINING CELLS NW OF OLD FORGE THAT PROMPTED A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING HAVE DISSIPATED AND SHIFTED SOUTH. THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WAS LIKELY TIED TO A MESOSCALE BOUNDARY AND BECAME LOCKED
TO THE TERRAIN FOR HOURS. FORTUNATELY THIS OCCURRED OVER A REMOTE
AREA OF NW HERKIMER COUNTY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA WILL CLEAR
OUT OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND ALL SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
LATE. EVENTUALLY ANY LINGERING CLOUDINESS WILL DECREASE IN ALL
AREAS TONIGHT...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MAINLY CLEAR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH RESIDUAL WET GROUND CONDITIONS PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY
TO FORM. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PER THE NCEP
MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND
INCREASINGLY WARMER TEMPERATURES /AND HUMIDITY/ AS H850 TEMPS
MODERATE INTO THE MID TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO
THE 80S MOST PLACES ON MONDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY JULY
SUNSHINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
LOW WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. HAVE FORECAST CLOUDS TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT WILL BECOME
VERY HUMID MONDAY NIGHT AND TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP TO LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD.

THE EXTENDED STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE...
CREATING A SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO APPROACH
THE REGION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS IT TURNS MORE HUMID.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PASSAGE
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. IT LOOKS TO COMES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY...SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN ALL DAY...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH A PRETTY GOOD WIND
FIELD ALOFT...WE WILL HAVE WATCH TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY COMES
INTO PLAY...AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
TO LOCALLY SEVERE. IF THE FRONT WERE TO MOVE A LITTLE FAST (AS THE
12Z GFS AND ECMWF WOULD IMPLY) THERE WOULD LESS INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH. IF THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE 12Z CANADIAN
MODEL WORKS OUT...THERE WOULD MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR
INSTABILITY/STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

EITHER WAY...ALL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
OUR REGION BY THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER
HUMIDITY TO WORK IN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES.

BY SUNDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED ANOTHER TROUGH TO
BEGIN CARVING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS WAS A LITTLE
FLATTER AND NORTH WITH THIS IDEA WHILE THE ECMWF HAD A MUCH DEEPER
TROUGH ANCHORED FURTHER WEST WITH A GIANT UPPER AIR LOW CLOSE TO
JAMES BAY. FOR NOW...WE WILL GO WITH THE IDEA ANOTHER COLD
FRONT/SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO SLOWLY APPROACH OUR REGION SUNDAY WITH
AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND AT LEAST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM LOWER TO MID 80S EACH
DAY IN THE VALLEYS...75 TO 80 HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID OR UPPER 50S IN OUTLYING AREAS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STEADY RAINFALL FROM EARLIER HAS ENDED...WITH CLEARING SKIES
ALREADY OCCURRING AT THE KALB/KPOU/KPSF/KGFL TERMINALS EARLY THIS
EVENING. DUE TO WET GROUND CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LOW
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS...FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MVFR AND EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. DRIER AIR WILL START TO WORK IN LATE...BUT
IS CURRENTLY STILL WELL WEST OF THE REGION AND WILL TAKE SEVERAL
HOURS TO MOVE IN. SO CONFIDENCE IN FOG IS MODERATE BUT NOT HIGH AT
THIS TIME. FOG COULD START BEFORE MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ANY FOG AND IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITHIN A
FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RESULTING IN PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWEST AROUND 5-7 KTS ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES
AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THEN GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALTHOUGH RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO A HALF
INCH OR A LITTLE MORE FELL IN SOME AREAS TODAY...THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE REGION HAD LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH LITTLE OR
NO RAINFALL OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS RAINFALL HAD LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 050250
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1050 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL EXIT THE
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER TO RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1050 PM EDT...CONVECTION FINALLY STARTING TO WEAKEN LATE
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL WAS A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WILL MAINTAIN POPS FOR THIS AREA UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE TRAINING CELLS NW OF OLD FORGE THAT PROMPTED A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING HAVE DISSIPATED AND SHIFTED SOUTH. THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WAS LIKELY TIED TO A MESOSCALE BOUNDARY AND BECAME LOCKED
TO THE TERRAIN FOR HOURS. FORTUNATELY THIS OCCURRED OVER A REMOTE
AREA OF NW HERKIMER COUNTY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA WILL CLEAR
OUT OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND ALL SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
LATE. EVENTUALLY ANY LINGERING CLOUDINESS WILL DECREASE IN ALL
AREAS TONIGHT...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MAINLY CLEAR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH RESIDUAL WET GROUND CONDITIONS PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY
TO FORM. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PER THE NCEP
MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND
INCREASINGLY WARMER TEMPERATURES /AND HUMIDITY/ AS H850 TEMPS
MODERATE INTO THE MID TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO
THE 80S MOST PLACES ON MONDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY JULY
SUNSHINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
LOW WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. HAVE FORECAST CLOUDS TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT WILL BECOME
VERY HUMID MONDAY NIGHT AND TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP TO LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD.

THE EXTENDED STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE...
CREATING A SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO APPROACH
THE REGION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS IT TURNS MORE HUMID.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PASSAGE
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. IT LOOKS TO COMES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY...SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN ALL DAY...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH A PRETTY GOOD WIND
FIELD ALOFT...WE WILL HAVE WATCH TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY COMES
INTO PLAY...AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
TO LOCALLY SEVERE. IF THE FRONT WERE TO MOVE A LITTLE FAST (AS THE
12Z GFS AND ECMWF WOULD IMPLY) THERE WOULD LESS INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH. IF THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE 12Z CANADIAN
MODEL WORKS OUT...THERE WOULD MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR
INSTABILITY/STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

EITHER WAY...ALL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
OUR REGION BY THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER
HUMIDITY TO WORK IN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES.

BY SUNDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED ANOTHER TROUGH TO
BEGIN CARVING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS WAS A LITTLE
FLATTER AND NORTH WITH THIS IDEA WHILE THE ECMWF HAD A MUCH DEEPER
TROUGH ANCHORED FURTHER WEST WITH A GIANT UPPER AIR LOW CLOSE TO
JAMES BAY. FOR NOW...WE WILL GO WITH THE IDEA ANOTHER COLD
FRONT/SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO SLOWLY APPROACH OUR REGION SUNDAY WITH
AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND AT LEAST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM LOWER TO MID 80S EACH
DAY IN THE VALLEYS...75 TO 80 HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID OR UPPER 50S IN OUTLYING AREAS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STEADY RAINFALL FROM EARLIER HAS ENDED...WITH CLEARING SKIES
ALREADY OCCURRING AT THE KALB/KPOU/KPSF/KGFL TERMINALS EARLY THIS
EVENING. DUE TO WET GROUND CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LOW
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS...FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MVFR AND EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. DRIER AIR WILL START TO WORK IN LATE...BUT
IS CURRENTLY STILL WELL WEST OF THE REGION AND WILL TAKE SEVERAL
HOURS TO MOVE IN. SO CONFIDENCE IN FOG IS MODERATE BUT NOT HIGH AT
THIS TIME. FOG COULD START BEFORE MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ANY FOG AND IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITHIN A
FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RESULTING IN PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWEST AROUND 5-7 KTS ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES
AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THEN GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALTHOUGH RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO A HALF
INCH OR A LITTLE MORE FELL IN SOME AREAS TODAY...THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE REGION HAD LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH LITTLE OR
NO RAINFALL OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS RAINFALL HAD LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 050250
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1050 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL EXIT THE
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER TO RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1050 PM EDT...CONVECTION FINALLY STARTING TO WEAKEN LATE
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL WAS A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WILL MAINTAIN POPS FOR THIS AREA UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE TRAINING CELLS NW OF OLD FORGE THAT PROMPTED A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING HAVE DISSIPATED AND SHIFTED SOUTH. THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WAS LIKELY TIED TO A MESOSCALE BOUNDARY AND BECAME LOCKED
TO THE TERRAIN FOR HOURS. FORTUNATELY THIS OCCURRED OVER A REMOTE
AREA OF NW HERKIMER COUNTY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA WILL CLEAR
OUT OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND ALL SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
LATE. EVENTUALLY ANY LINGERING CLOUDINESS WILL DECREASE IN ALL
AREAS TONIGHT...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MAINLY CLEAR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH RESIDUAL WET GROUND CONDITIONS PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY
TO FORM. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PER THE NCEP
MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND
INCREASINGLY WARMER TEMPERATURES /AND HUMIDITY/ AS H850 TEMPS
MODERATE INTO THE MID TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO
THE 80S MOST PLACES ON MONDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY JULY
SUNSHINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
LOW WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. HAVE FORECAST CLOUDS TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT WILL BECOME
VERY HUMID MONDAY NIGHT AND TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP TO LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD.

THE EXTENDED STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE...
CREATING A SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO APPROACH
THE REGION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS IT TURNS MORE HUMID.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PASSAGE
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. IT LOOKS TO COMES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY...SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN ALL DAY...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH A PRETTY GOOD WIND
FIELD ALOFT...WE WILL HAVE WATCH TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY COMES
INTO PLAY...AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
TO LOCALLY SEVERE. IF THE FRONT WERE TO MOVE A LITTLE FAST (AS THE
12Z GFS AND ECMWF WOULD IMPLY) THERE WOULD LESS INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH. IF THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE 12Z CANADIAN
MODEL WORKS OUT...THERE WOULD MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR
INSTABILITY/STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

EITHER WAY...ALL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
OUR REGION BY THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER
HUMIDITY TO WORK IN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES.

BY SUNDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED ANOTHER TROUGH TO
BEGIN CARVING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS WAS A LITTLE
FLATTER AND NORTH WITH THIS IDEA WHILE THE ECMWF HAD A MUCH DEEPER
TROUGH ANCHORED FURTHER WEST WITH A GIANT UPPER AIR LOW CLOSE TO
JAMES BAY. FOR NOW...WE WILL GO WITH THE IDEA ANOTHER COLD
FRONT/SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO SLOWLY APPROACH OUR REGION SUNDAY WITH
AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND AT LEAST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM LOWER TO MID 80S EACH
DAY IN THE VALLEYS...75 TO 80 HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID OR UPPER 50S IN OUTLYING AREAS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STEADY RAINFALL FROM EARLIER HAS ENDED...WITH CLEARING SKIES
ALREADY OCCURRING AT THE KALB/KPOU/KPSF/KGFL TERMINALS EARLY THIS
EVENING. DUE TO WET GROUND CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LOW
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS...FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MVFR AND EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. DRIER AIR WILL START TO WORK IN LATE...BUT
IS CURRENTLY STILL WELL WEST OF THE REGION AND WILL TAKE SEVERAL
HOURS TO MOVE IN. SO CONFIDENCE IN FOG IS MODERATE BUT NOT HIGH AT
THIS TIME. FOG COULD START BEFORE MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ANY FOG AND IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITHIN A
FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RESULTING IN PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWEST AROUND 5-7 KTS ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES
AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THEN GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALTHOUGH RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO A HALF
INCH OR A LITTLE MORE FELL IN SOME AREAS TODAY...THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE REGION HAD LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH LITTLE OR
NO RAINFALL OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS RAINFALL HAD LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 050243
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1043 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1035 PM EDT SATURDAY...AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTERNOON MOVED INTO
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING...AND IS
NOW DIMINISHING IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT GRADUALLY
DEPRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL VERMONT AND ESSEX COUNTY
NEW YORK. FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS
ACCORDING TO RADAR ESTIMATES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SOME
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF ESSEX AND CLINTON COUNTIES IN NEW
YORK. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS
AREA OF SHOWERS SETTLES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. BUT THE THREAT
FOR A FEW MORE POPUP SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AREAWIDE AS UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY EAST ACROSS
REGION. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFLECT LATEST
CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. WITH TODAYS RAINFALL AND EXPECTATION OF
LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME PATCHY
FOG TO FORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE CLIMO FAVORED MOUNTAIN AND
RIVER VALLEYS. TEMP FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LOWS EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SATURDAY...MODELS SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ON
SUNDAY AND THEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON MONDAY. MAINLY
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
BEGINS ON TUESDAY WHERE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER
IN THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR
TUESDAY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY LEADING TO THE CHANCE FOR SOME POPUP TSRA, BUT THE
TIMING OF THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT DIFFERS. 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OFFERING A LATER FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING MID-DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO TO
SHOW A FASTER ARRIVAL TIME TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES, SO HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST A BLEND WITH SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN A LITTLE
MORE CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY,
GUIDANCE IS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN TURNING
QUIET FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT
WITH VERY LITTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SO WE SHOULD SEE A DRY END TO THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES, HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR IN LINGERING SHOWERS
THIS EVENING AND PERIOD OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR
OVERNIGHT. LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THIS EVENING...BUT WILL STILL BRING
A PERIOD OF RAIN TO MPV...WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR
(AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY IFR). OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL IMPACTS
EXPECTED AT OTHER TAF SITES. CLOUD DECK SCATTERS OUT
OVERNIGHT...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO TODAYS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG/BR OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. COVERAGE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME WIND REMAINING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...BUT IFR/LIFR STILL LIKELY AT LEAST FOR A TIME AT MPV/SLK.
SOME BRIEF MVFR ALSO POSSIBLE AT PBG. NO FOG/BR FORECAST AT
BTV/RUT/MSS. ANY FOG/BR LIFTS AND SCATTERS OUT AFTER 12Z WITH ONLY
SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED FOR LATER SUNDAY. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 4-5KT AT RUT) TURN WESTERLY
ON SUNDAY...BUT REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 050243
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1043 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1035 PM EDT SATURDAY...AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTERNOON MOVED INTO
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING...AND IS
NOW DIMINISHING IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT GRADUALLY
DEPRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL VERMONT AND ESSEX COUNTY
NEW YORK. FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS
ACCORDING TO RADAR ESTIMATES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SOME
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF ESSEX AND CLINTON COUNTIES IN NEW
YORK. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS
AREA OF SHOWERS SETTLES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. BUT THE THREAT
FOR A FEW MORE POPUP SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AREAWIDE AS UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY EAST ACROSS
REGION. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFLECT LATEST
CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. WITH TODAYS RAINFALL AND EXPECTATION OF
LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME PATCHY
FOG TO FORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE CLIMO FAVORED MOUNTAIN AND
RIVER VALLEYS. TEMP FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LOWS EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SATURDAY...MODELS SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ON
SUNDAY AND THEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON MONDAY. MAINLY
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
BEGINS ON TUESDAY WHERE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER
IN THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR
TUESDAY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY LEADING TO THE CHANCE FOR SOME POPUP TSRA, BUT THE
TIMING OF THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT DIFFERS. 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OFFERING A LATER FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING MID-DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO TO
SHOW A FASTER ARRIVAL TIME TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES, SO HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST A BLEND WITH SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN A LITTLE
MORE CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY,
GUIDANCE IS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN TURNING
QUIET FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT
WITH VERY LITTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SO WE SHOULD SEE A DRY END TO THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES, HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR IN LINGERING SHOWERS
THIS EVENING AND PERIOD OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR
OVERNIGHT. LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THIS EVENING...BUT WILL STILL BRING
A PERIOD OF RAIN TO MPV...WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR
(AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY IFR). OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL IMPACTS
EXPECTED AT OTHER TAF SITES. CLOUD DECK SCATTERS OUT
OVERNIGHT...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO TODAYS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG/BR OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. COVERAGE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME WIND REMAINING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...BUT IFR/LIFR STILL LIKELY AT LEAST FOR A TIME AT MPV/SLK.
SOME BRIEF MVFR ALSO POSSIBLE AT PBG. NO FOG/BR FORECAST AT
BTV/RUT/MSS. ANY FOG/BR LIFTS AND SCATTERS OUT AFTER 12Z WITH ONLY
SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED FOR LATER SUNDAY. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 4-5KT AT RUT) TURN WESTERLY
ON SUNDAY...BUT REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 050243
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1043 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1035 PM EDT SATURDAY...AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTERNOON MOVED INTO
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING...AND IS
NOW DIMINISHING IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT GRADUALLY
DEPRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL VERMONT AND ESSEX COUNTY
NEW YORK. FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS
ACCORDING TO RADAR ESTIMATES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SOME
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF ESSEX AND CLINTON COUNTIES IN NEW
YORK. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS
AREA OF SHOWERS SETTLES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. BUT THE THREAT
FOR A FEW MORE POPUP SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AREAWIDE AS UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY EAST ACROSS
REGION. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFLECT LATEST
CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. WITH TODAYS RAINFALL AND EXPECTATION OF
LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME PATCHY
FOG TO FORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE CLIMO FAVORED MOUNTAIN AND
RIVER VALLEYS. TEMP FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LOWS EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SATURDAY...MODELS SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ON
SUNDAY AND THEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON MONDAY. MAINLY
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
BEGINS ON TUESDAY WHERE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER
IN THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR
TUESDAY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY LEADING TO THE CHANCE FOR SOME POPUP TSRA, BUT THE
TIMING OF THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT DIFFERS. 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OFFERING A LATER FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING MID-DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO TO
SHOW A FASTER ARRIVAL TIME TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES, SO HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST A BLEND WITH SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN A LITTLE
MORE CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY,
GUIDANCE IS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN TURNING
QUIET FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT
WITH VERY LITTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SO WE SHOULD SEE A DRY END TO THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES, HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR IN LINGERING SHOWERS
THIS EVENING AND PERIOD OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR
OVERNIGHT. LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THIS EVENING...BUT WILL STILL BRING
A PERIOD OF RAIN TO MPV...WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR
(AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY IFR). OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL IMPACTS
EXPECTED AT OTHER TAF SITES. CLOUD DECK SCATTERS OUT
OVERNIGHT...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO TODAYS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG/BR OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. COVERAGE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME WIND REMAINING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...BUT IFR/LIFR STILL LIKELY AT LEAST FOR A TIME AT MPV/SLK.
SOME BRIEF MVFR ALSO POSSIBLE AT PBG. NO FOG/BR FORECAST AT
BTV/RUT/MSS. ANY FOG/BR LIFTS AND SCATTERS OUT AFTER 12Z WITH ONLY
SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED FOR LATER SUNDAY. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 4-5KT AT RUT) TURN WESTERLY
ON SUNDAY...BUT REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 050243
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1043 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1035 PM EDT SATURDAY...AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTERNOON MOVED INTO
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING...AND IS
NOW DIMINISHING IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT GRADUALLY
DEPRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL VERMONT AND ESSEX COUNTY
NEW YORK. FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS
ACCORDING TO RADAR ESTIMATES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES IN SOME
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF ESSEX AND CLINTON COUNTIES IN NEW
YORK. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS
AREA OF SHOWERS SETTLES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. BUT THE THREAT
FOR A FEW MORE POPUP SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AREAWIDE AS UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY EAST ACROSS
REGION. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFLECT LATEST
CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. WITH TODAYS RAINFALL AND EXPECTATION OF
LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME PATCHY
FOG TO FORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE CLIMO FAVORED MOUNTAIN AND
RIVER VALLEYS. TEMP FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LOWS EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SATURDAY...MODELS SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ON
SUNDAY AND THEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON MONDAY. MAINLY
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
BEGINS ON TUESDAY WHERE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER
IN THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR
TUESDAY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY LEADING TO THE CHANCE FOR SOME POPUP TSRA, BUT THE
TIMING OF THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT DIFFERS. 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OFFERING A LATER FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING MID-DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO TO
SHOW A FASTER ARRIVAL TIME TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES, SO HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST A BLEND WITH SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN A LITTLE
MORE CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY,
GUIDANCE IS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN TURNING
QUIET FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT
WITH VERY LITTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SO WE SHOULD SEE A DRY END TO THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES, HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR IN LINGERING SHOWERS
THIS EVENING AND PERIOD OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR
OVERNIGHT. LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THIS EVENING...BUT WILL STILL BRING
A PERIOD OF RAIN TO MPV...WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR
(AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY IFR). OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL IMPACTS
EXPECTED AT OTHER TAF SITES. CLOUD DECK SCATTERS OUT
OVERNIGHT...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO TODAYS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG/BR OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. COVERAGE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME WIND REMAINING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...BUT IFR/LIFR STILL LIKELY AT LEAST FOR A TIME AT MPV/SLK.
SOME BRIEF MVFR ALSO POSSIBLE AT PBG. NO FOG/BR FORECAST AT
BTV/RUT/MSS. ANY FOG/BR LIFTS AND SCATTERS OUT AFTER 12Z WITH ONLY
SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED FOR LATER SUNDAY. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 4-5KT AT RUT) TURN WESTERLY
ON SUNDAY...BUT REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KALY 042351
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
751 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL EXIT THE
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER TO RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 714 PM EDT...STEADY RAINFALL HAS EXITED THE REGION.
HOWEVER...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES EARLY
THIS EVENING...AS INSTABILITY BUILT ACROSS THIS AREA DUE TO
SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION IS BEING TRIGGERED
BY A LAGGING UPPER LEVEL TROF. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
HAMILTON COUNTY HAVE BEEN MAINLY A NUISANCE...HOWEVER THERE ARE
SOME STRONGER STORMS IN NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY JUST NORTH OF OLD
FORGE WHERE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT HOUR. CONVECTION WILL TEND TO DECREASE AFTER DARK...AND
SHOULD COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. RAISED POPS WHERE THE
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING AND WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES INTO
NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY THIS EVENING. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THIS EVENING.

THIS TROF WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND ALL
SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END. EVENTUALLY ANY LINGERING CLOUDINESS
WILL DECREASE IN ALL AREAS TONIGHT...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MAINLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH
SOME UPPER 40S OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PER THE NCEP
MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND
INCREASINGLY WARMER TEMPERATURES /AND HUMIDITY/ AS H850 TEMPS
MODERATE INTO THE MID TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO
THE 80S MOST PLACES ON MONDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY JULY
SUNSHINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
LOW WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. HAVE FORECAST CLOUDS TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT WILL BECOME
VERY HUMID MONDAY NIGHT AND TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP TO LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD.

THE EXTENDED STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE...
CREATING A SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO APPROACH
THE REGION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS IT TURNS MORE HUMID.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PASSAGE
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. IT LOOKS TO COMES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY...SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN ALL DAY...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH A PRETTY GOOD WIND
FIELD ALOFT...WE WILL HAVE WATCH TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY COMES
INTO PLAY...AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
TO LOCALLY SEVERE. IF THE FRONT WERE TO MOVE A LITTLE FAST (AS THE
12Z GFS AND ECMWF WOULD IMPLY) THERE WOULD LESS INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH. IF THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE 12Z CANADIAN
MODEL WORKS OUT...THERE WOULD MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR
INSTABILITY/STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

EITHER WAY...ALL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
OUR REGION BY THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER
HUMIDITY TO WORK IN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES.

BY SUNDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED ANOTHER TROUGH TO
BEGIN CARVING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS WAS A LITTLE
FLATTER AND NORTH WITH THIS IDEA WHILE THE ECMWF HAD A MUCH DEEPER
TROUGH ANCHORED FURTHER WEST WITH A GIANT UPPER AIR LOW CLOSE TO
JAMES BAY. FOR NOW...WE WILL GO WITH THE IDEA ANOTHER COLD
FRONT/SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO SLOWLY APPROACH OUR REGION SUNDAY WITH
AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND AT LEAST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM LOWER TO MID 80S EACH
DAY IN THE VALLEYS...75 TO 80 HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID OR UPPER 50S IN OUTLYING AREAS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STEADY RAINFALL FROM EARLIER HAS ENDED...WITH CLEARING SKIES
ALREADY OCCURRING AT THE KALB/KPOU/KPSF/KGFL TERMINALS EARLY THIS
EVENING. DUE TO WET GROUND CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LOW
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS...FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MVFR AND EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. DRIER AIR WILL START TO WORK IN LATE...BUT
IS CURRENTLY STILL WELL WEST OF THE REGION AND WILL TAKE SEVERAL
HOURS TO MOVE IN. SO CONFIDENCE IN FOG IS MODERATE BUT NOT HIGH AT
THIS TIME. FOG COULD START BEFORE MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ANY FOG AND IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITHIN A
FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RESULTING IN PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWEST AROUND 5-7 KTS ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES
AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THEN GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALTHOUGH RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO A HALF
INCH OR A LITTLE MORE FELL IN SOME AREAS TODAY...THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE REGION HAD LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH LITTLE OR
NO RAINFALL OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS RAINFALL HAD LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 042351
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
751 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL EXIT THE
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER TO RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 714 PM EDT...STEADY RAINFALL HAS EXITED THE REGION.
HOWEVER...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES EARLY
THIS EVENING...AS INSTABILITY BUILT ACROSS THIS AREA DUE TO
SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION IS BEING TRIGGERED
BY A LAGGING UPPER LEVEL TROF. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
HAMILTON COUNTY HAVE BEEN MAINLY A NUISANCE...HOWEVER THERE ARE
SOME STRONGER STORMS IN NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY JUST NORTH OF OLD
FORGE WHERE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT HOUR. CONVECTION WILL TEND TO DECREASE AFTER DARK...AND
SHOULD COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. RAISED POPS WHERE THE
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING AND WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES INTO
NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY THIS EVENING. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THIS EVENING.

THIS TROF WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND ALL
SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END. EVENTUALLY ANY LINGERING CLOUDINESS
WILL DECREASE IN ALL AREAS TONIGHT...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MAINLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH
SOME UPPER 40S OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PER THE NCEP
MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND
INCREASINGLY WARMER TEMPERATURES /AND HUMIDITY/ AS H850 TEMPS
MODERATE INTO THE MID TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO
THE 80S MOST PLACES ON MONDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY JULY
SUNSHINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
LOW WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. HAVE FORECAST CLOUDS TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT WILL BECOME
VERY HUMID MONDAY NIGHT AND TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP TO LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD.

THE EXTENDED STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE...
CREATING A SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO APPROACH
THE REGION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS IT TURNS MORE HUMID.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PASSAGE
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. IT LOOKS TO COMES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY...SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN ALL DAY...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH A PRETTY GOOD WIND
FIELD ALOFT...WE WILL HAVE WATCH TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY COMES
INTO PLAY...AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
TO LOCALLY SEVERE. IF THE FRONT WERE TO MOVE A LITTLE FAST (AS THE
12Z GFS AND ECMWF WOULD IMPLY) THERE WOULD LESS INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH. IF THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE 12Z CANADIAN
MODEL WORKS OUT...THERE WOULD MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR
INSTABILITY/STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

EITHER WAY...ALL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
OUR REGION BY THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER
HUMIDITY TO WORK IN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES.

BY SUNDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED ANOTHER TROUGH TO
BEGIN CARVING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS WAS A LITTLE
FLATTER AND NORTH WITH THIS IDEA WHILE THE ECMWF HAD A MUCH DEEPER
TROUGH ANCHORED FURTHER WEST WITH A GIANT UPPER AIR LOW CLOSE TO
JAMES BAY. FOR NOW...WE WILL GO WITH THE IDEA ANOTHER COLD
FRONT/SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO SLOWLY APPROACH OUR REGION SUNDAY WITH
AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND AT LEAST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM LOWER TO MID 80S EACH
DAY IN THE VALLEYS...75 TO 80 HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID OR UPPER 50S IN OUTLYING AREAS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STEADY RAINFALL FROM EARLIER HAS ENDED...WITH CLEARING SKIES
ALREADY OCCURRING AT THE KALB/KPOU/KPSF/KGFL TERMINALS EARLY THIS
EVENING. DUE TO WET GROUND CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LOW
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS...FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MVFR AND EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. DRIER AIR WILL START TO WORK IN LATE...BUT
IS CURRENTLY STILL WELL WEST OF THE REGION AND WILL TAKE SEVERAL
HOURS TO MOVE IN. SO CONFIDENCE IN FOG IS MODERATE BUT NOT HIGH AT
THIS TIME. FOG COULD START BEFORE MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ANY FOG AND IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITHIN A
FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RESULTING IN PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWEST AROUND 5-7 KTS ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES
AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THEN GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALTHOUGH RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO A HALF
INCH OR A LITTLE MORE FELL IN SOME AREAS TODAY...THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE REGION HAD LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH LITTLE OR
NO RAINFALL OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS RAINFALL HAD LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 042351
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
751 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL EXIT THE
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER TO RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 714 PM EDT...STEADY RAINFALL HAS EXITED THE REGION.
HOWEVER...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES EARLY
THIS EVENING...AS INSTABILITY BUILT ACROSS THIS AREA DUE TO
SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION IS BEING TRIGGERED
BY A LAGGING UPPER LEVEL TROF. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
HAMILTON COUNTY HAVE BEEN MAINLY A NUISANCE...HOWEVER THERE ARE
SOME STRONGER STORMS IN NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY JUST NORTH OF OLD
FORGE WHERE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT HOUR. CONVECTION WILL TEND TO DECREASE AFTER DARK...AND
SHOULD COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. RAISED POPS WHERE THE
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING AND WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES INTO
NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY THIS EVENING. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THIS EVENING.

THIS TROF WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND ALL
SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END. EVENTUALLY ANY LINGERING CLOUDINESS
WILL DECREASE IN ALL AREAS TONIGHT...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MAINLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH
SOME UPPER 40S OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PER THE NCEP
MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND
INCREASINGLY WARMER TEMPERATURES /AND HUMIDITY/ AS H850 TEMPS
MODERATE INTO THE MID TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO
THE 80S MOST PLACES ON MONDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY JULY
SUNSHINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
LOW WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. HAVE FORECAST CLOUDS TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT WILL BECOME
VERY HUMID MONDAY NIGHT AND TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP TO LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD.

THE EXTENDED STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE...
CREATING A SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO APPROACH
THE REGION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS IT TURNS MORE HUMID.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PASSAGE
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. IT LOOKS TO COMES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY...SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN ALL DAY...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH A PRETTY GOOD WIND
FIELD ALOFT...WE WILL HAVE WATCH TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY COMES
INTO PLAY...AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
TO LOCALLY SEVERE. IF THE FRONT WERE TO MOVE A LITTLE FAST (AS THE
12Z GFS AND ECMWF WOULD IMPLY) THERE WOULD LESS INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH. IF THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE 12Z CANADIAN
MODEL WORKS OUT...THERE WOULD MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR
INSTABILITY/STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

EITHER WAY...ALL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
OUR REGION BY THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER
HUMIDITY TO WORK IN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES.

BY SUNDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED ANOTHER TROUGH TO
BEGIN CARVING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS WAS A LITTLE
FLATTER AND NORTH WITH THIS IDEA WHILE THE ECMWF HAD A MUCH DEEPER
TROUGH ANCHORED FURTHER WEST WITH A GIANT UPPER AIR LOW CLOSE TO
JAMES BAY. FOR NOW...WE WILL GO WITH THE IDEA ANOTHER COLD
FRONT/SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO SLOWLY APPROACH OUR REGION SUNDAY WITH
AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND AT LEAST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM LOWER TO MID 80S EACH
DAY IN THE VALLEYS...75 TO 80 HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID OR UPPER 50S IN OUTLYING AREAS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STEADY RAINFALL FROM EARLIER HAS ENDED...WITH CLEARING SKIES
ALREADY OCCURRING AT THE KALB/KPOU/KPSF/KGFL TERMINALS EARLY THIS
EVENING. DUE TO WET GROUND CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LOW
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS...FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MVFR AND EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. DRIER AIR WILL START TO WORK IN LATE...BUT
IS CURRENTLY STILL WELL WEST OF THE REGION AND WILL TAKE SEVERAL
HOURS TO MOVE IN. SO CONFIDENCE IN FOG IS MODERATE BUT NOT HIGH AT
THIS TIME. FOG COULD START BEFORE MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ANY FOG AND IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITHIN A
FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RESULTING IN PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWEST AROUND 5-7 KTS ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES
AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THEN GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALTHOUGH RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO A HALF
INCH OR A LITTLE MORE FELL IN SOME AREAS TODAY...THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE REGION HAD LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH LITTLE OR
NO RAINFALL OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS RAINFALL HAD LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 042351
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
751 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL EXIT THE
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER TO RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 714 PM EDT...STEADY RAINFALL HAS EXITED THE REGION.
HOWEVER...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES EARLY
THIS EVENING...AS INSTABILITY BUILT ACROSS THIS AREA DUE TO
SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION IS BEING TRIGGERED
BY A LAGGING UPPER LEVEL TROF. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
HAMILTON COUNTY HAVE BEEN MAINLY A NUISANCE...HOWEVER THERE ARE
SOME STRONGER STORMS IN NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY JUST NORTH OF OLD
FORGE WHERE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT HOUR. CONVECTION WILL TEND TO DECREASE AFTER DARK...AND
SHOULD COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. RAISED POPS WHERE THE
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING AND WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES INTO
NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY THIS EVENING. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THIS EVENING.

THIS TROF WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND ALL
SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END. EVENTUALLY ANY LINGERING CLOUDINESS
WILL DECREASE IN ALL AREAS TONIGHT...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MAINLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH
SOME UPPER 40S OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PER THE NCEP
MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND
INCREASINGLY WARMER TEMPERATURES /AND HUMIDITY/ AS H850 TEMPS
MODERATE INTO THE MID TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO
THE 80S MOST PLACES ON MONDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY JULY
SUNSHINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
LOW WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. HAVE FORECAST CLOUDS TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT WILL BECOME
VERY HUMID MONDAY NIGHT AND TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP TO LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD.

THE EXTENDED STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE...
CREATING A SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO APPROACH
THE REGION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS IT TURNS MORE HUMID.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PASSAGE
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. IT LOOKS TO COMES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY...SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN ALL DAY...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH A PRETTY GOOD WIND
FIELD ALOFT...WE WILL HAVE WATCH TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY COMES
INTO PLAY...AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
TO LOCALLY SEVERE. IF THE FRONT WERE TO MOVE A LITTLE FAST (AS THE
12Z GFS AND ECMWF WOULD IMPLY) THERE WOULD LESS INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH. IF THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE 12Z CANADIAN
MODEL WORKS OUT...THERE WOULD MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR
INSTABILITY/STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

EITHER WAY...ALL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
OUR REGION BY THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER
HUMIDITY TO WORK IN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES.

BY SUNDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED ANOTHER TROUGH TO
BEGIN CARVING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS WAS A LITTLE
FLATTER AND NORTH WITH THIS IDEA WHILE THE ECMWF HAD A MUCH DEEPER
TROUGH ANCHORED FURTHER WEST WITH A GIANT UPPER AIR LOW CLOSE TO
JAMES BAY. FOR NOW...WE WILL GO WITH THE IDEA ANOTHER COLD
FRONT/SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO SLOWLY APPROACH OUR REGION SUNDAY WITH
AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND AT LEAST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM LOWER TO MID 80S EACH
DAY IN THE VALLEYS...75 TO 80 HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID OR UPPER 50S IN OUTLYING AREAS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STEADY RAINFALL FROM EARLIER HAS ENDED...WITH CLEARING SKIES
ALREADY OCCURRING AT THE KALB/KPOU/KPSF/KGFL TERMINALS EARLY THIS
EVENING. DUE TO WET GROUND CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LOW
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS...FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MVFR AND EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. DRIER AIR WILL START TO WORK IN LATE...BUT
IS CURRENTLY STILL WELL WEST OF THE REGION AND WILL TAKE SEVERAL
HOURS TO MOVE IN. SO CONFIDENCE IN FOG IS MODERATE BUT NOT HIGH AT
THIS TIME. FOG COULD START BEFORE MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ANY FOG AND IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITHIN A
FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RESULTING IN PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWEST AROUND 5-7 KTS ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES
AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THEN GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALTHOUGH RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO A HALF
INCH OR A LITTLE MORE FELL IN SOME AREAS TODAY...THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE REGION HAD LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH LITTLE OR
NO RAINFALL OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS RAINFALL HAD LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 042342
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
742 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT SATURDAY...AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTERNOON MOVED INTO
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING. AREA OF
SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM ORLEANS COUNTY
VERMONT SOUTHWEST INTO ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK. LIGHTNING ON THE
DECREASE...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS PRECIPITATION
ENTERS MORE STABLE AIRMASS. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL ALSO DECREASE
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THE THREAT FOR A FEW MORE POPUP
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WITH LATEST UPDATE...HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. WITH TODAYS
RAINFALL AND EXPECTATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING LATER
TONIGHT...HAVE ADDED MENTION OF SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE MORE CLIMO
FAVORED MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS WITH SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. WILL GO WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HAVE
CONFINED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT EARLY TONIGHT...AS LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING
CONDITIONS HAVE DESTABILIZED IN THESE AREAS. EXPECTING AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SATURDAY...MODELS SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ON
SUNDAY AND THEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON MONDAY. MAINLY
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
BEGINS ON TUESDAY WHERE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER
IN THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR
TUESDAY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY LEADING TO THE CHANCE FOR SOME POPUP TSRA, BUT THE
TIMING OF THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT DIFFERS. 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OFFERING A LATER FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING MID-DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO TO
SHOW A FASTER ARRIVAL TIME TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES, SO HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST A BLEND WITH SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN A LITTLE
MORE CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY,
GUIDANCE IS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN TURNING
QUIET FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT
WITH VERY LITTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SO WE SHOULD SEE A DRY END TO THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES, HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR IN LINGERING SHOWERS
THIS EVENING AND PERIOD OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR
OVERNIGHT. LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THIS EVENING...BUT WILL STILL BRING
A PERIOD OF RAIN TO MPV...WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR
(AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY IFR). OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL IMPACTS
EXPECTED AT OTHER TAF SITES. CLOUD DECK SCATTERS OUT
OVERNIGHT...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO TODAYS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG/BR OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. COVERAGE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME WIND REMAINING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...BUT IFR/LIFR STILL LIKELY AT LEAST FOR A TIME AT MPV/SLK.
SOME BRIEF MVFR ALSO POSSIBLE AT PBG. NO FOG/BR FORECAST AT
BTV/RUT/MSS. ANY FOG/BR LIFTS AND SCATTERS OUT AFTER 12Z WITH ONLY
SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED FOR LATER SUNDAY. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 4-5KT AT RUT) TURN WESTERLY
ON SUNDAY...BUT REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 042342
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
742 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT SATURDAY...AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTERNOON MOVED INTO
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING. AREA OF
SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM ORLEANS COUNTY
VERMONT SOUTHWEST INTO ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK. LIGHTNING ON THE
DECREASE...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS PRECIPITATION
ENTERS MORE STABLE AIRMASS. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL ALSO DECREASE
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THE THREAT FOR A FEW MORE POPUP
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WITH LATEST UPDATE...HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. WITH TODAYS
RAINFALL AND EXPECTATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING LATER
TONIGHT...HAVE ADDED MENTION OF SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE MORE CLIMO
FAVORED MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS WITH SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. WILL GO WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HAVE
CONFINED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT EARLY TONIGHT...AS LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING
CONDITIONS HAVE DESTABILIZED IN THESE AREAS. EXPECTING AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SATURDAY...MODELS SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ON
SUNDAY AND THEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON MONDAY. MAINLY
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
BEGINS ON TUESDAY WHERE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER
IN THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR
TUESDAY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY LEADING TO THE CHANCE FOR SOME POPUP TSRA, BUT THE
TIMING OF THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT DIFFERS. 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OFFERING A LATER FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING MID-DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO TO
SHOW A FASTER ARRIVAL TIME TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES, SO HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST A BLEND WITH SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN A LITTLE
MORE CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY,
GUIDANCE IS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN TURNING
QUIET FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT
WITH VERY LITTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SO WE SHOULD SEE A DRY END TO THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES, HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR IN LINGERING SHOWERS
THIS EVENING AND PERIOD OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR
OVERNIGHT. LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THIS EVENING...BUT WILL STILL BRING
A PERIOD OF RAIN TO MPV...WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR
(AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY IFR). OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL IMPACTS
EXPECTED AT OTHER TAF SITES. CLOUD DECK SCATTERS OUT
OVERNIGHT...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO TODAYS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG/BR OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. COVERAGE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME WIND REMAINING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...BUT IFR/LIFR STILL LIKELY AT LEAST FOR A TIME AT MPV/SLK.
SOME BRIEF MVFR ALSO POSSIBLE AT PBG. NO FOG/BR FORECAST AT
BTV/RUT/MSS. ANY FOG/BR LIFTS AND SCATTERS OUT AFTER 12Z WITH ONLY
SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED FOR LATER SUNDAY. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 4-5KT AT RUT) TURN WESTERLY
ON SUNDAY...BUT REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 042342
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
742 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT SATURDAY...AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTERNOON MOVED INTO
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING. AREA OF
SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM ORLEANS COUNTY
VERMONT SOUTHWEST INTO ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK. LIGHTNING ON THE
DECREASE...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS PRECIPITATION
ENTERS MORE STABLE AIRMASS. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL ALSO DECREASE
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THE THREAT FOR A FEW MORE POPUP
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WITH LATEST UPDATE...HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. WITH TODAYS
RAINFALL AND EXPECTATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING LATER
TONIGHT...HAVE ADDED MENTION OF SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE MORE CLIMO
FAVORED MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS WITH SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. WILL GO WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HAVE
CONFINED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT EARLY TONIGHT...AS LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING
CONDITIONS HAVE DESTABILIZED IN THESE AREAS. EXPECTING AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SATURDAY...MODELS SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ON
SUNDAY AND THEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON MONDAY. MAINLY
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
BEGINS ON TUESDAY WHERE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER
IN THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR
TUESDAY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY LEADING TO THE CHANCE FOR SOME POPUP TSRA, BUT THE
TIMING OF THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT DIFFERS. 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OFFERING A LATER FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING MID-DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO TO
SHOW A FASTER ARRIVAL TIME TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES, SO HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST A BLEND WITH SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN A LITTLE
MORE CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY,
GUIDANCE IS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN TURNING
QUIET FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT
WITH VERY LITTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SO WE SHOULD SEE A DRY END TO THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES, HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR IN LINGERING SHOWERS
THIS EVENING AND PERIOD OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR
OVERNIGHT. LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THIS EVENING...BUT WILL STILL BRING
A PERIOD OF RAIN TO MPV...WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR
(AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY IFR). OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL IMPACTS
EXPECTED AT OTHER TAF SITES. CLOUD DECK SCATTERS OUT
OVERNIGHT...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO TODAYS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG/BR OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. COVERAGE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME WIND REMAINING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...BUT IFR/LIFR STILL LIKELY AT LEAST FOR A TIME AT MPV/SLK.
SOME BRIEF MVFR ALSO POSSIBLE AT PBG. NO FOG/BR FORECAST AT
BTV/RUT/MSS. ANY FOG/BR LIFTS AND SCATTERS OUT AFTER 12Z WITH ONLY
SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED FOR LATER SUNDAY. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 4-5KT AT RUT) TURN WESTERLY
ON SUNDAY...BUT REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 042342
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
742 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT SATURDAY...AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTERNOON MOVED INTO
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING. AREA OF
SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM ORLEANS COUNTY
VERMONT SOUTHWEST INTO ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK. LIGHTNING ON THE
DECREASE...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS PRECIPITATION
ENTERS MORE STABLE AIRMASS. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL ALSO DECREASE
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THE THREAT FOR A FEW MORE POPUP
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WITH LATEST UPDATE...HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. WITH TODAYS
RAINFALL AND EXPECTATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING LATER
TONIGHT...HAVE ADDED MENTION OF SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE MORE CLIMO
FAVORED MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS WITH SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. WILL GO WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HAVE
CONFINED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT EARLY TONIGHT...AS LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING
CONDITIONS HAVE DESTABILIZED IN THESE AREAS. EXPECTING AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SATURDAY...MODELS SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ON
SUNDAY AND THEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON MONDAY. MAINLY
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
BEGINS ON TUESDAY WHERE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER
IN THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR
TUESDAY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY LEADING TO THE CHANCE FOR SOME POPUP TSRA, BUT THE
TIMING OF THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT DIFFERS. 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OFFERING A LATER FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING MID-DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO TO
SHOW A FASTER ARRIVAL TIME TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES, SO HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST A BLEND WITH SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN A LITTLE
MORE CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY,
GUIDANCE IS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN TURNING
QUIET FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT
WITH VERY LITTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SO WE SHOULD SEE A DRY END TO THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES, HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR IN LINGERING SHOWERS
THIS EVENING AND PERIOD OF LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR IN FOG/BR
OVERNIGHT. LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THIS EVENING...BUT WILL STILL BRING
A PERIOD OF RAIN TO MPV...WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR
(AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY IFR). OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL IMPACTS
EXPECTED AT OTHER TAF SITES. CLOUD DECK SCATTERS OUT
OVERNIGHT...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO TODAYS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG/BR OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. COVERAGE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME WIND REMAINING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...BUT IFR/LIFR STILL LIKELY AT LEAST FOR A TIME AT MPV/SLK.
SOME BRIEF MVFR ALSO POSSIBLE AT PBG. NO FOG/BR FORECAST AT
BTV/RUT/MSS. ANY FOG/BR LIFTS AND SCATTERS OUT AFTER 12Z WITH ONLY
SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED FOR LATER SUNDAY. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 4-5KT AT RUT) TURN WESTERLY
ON SUNDAY...BUT REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 042327
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
727 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT SATURDAY...AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTERNOON MOVED INTO
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING. AREA OF
SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM ORLEANS COUNTY
VERMONT SOUTHWEST INTO ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK. LIGHTNING ON THE
DECREASE...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS PRECIPITATION
ENTERS MORE STABLE AIRMASS. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL ALSO DECREASE
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THE THREAT FOR A FEW MORE POPUP
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WITH LATEST UPDATE...HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. WITH TODAYS
RAINFALL AND EXPECTATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING LATER
TONIGHT...HAVE ADDED MENTION OF SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE MORE CLIMO
FAVORED MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS WITH SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. WILL GO WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HAVE
CONFINED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT EARLY TONIGHT...AS LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING
CONDITIONS HAVE DESTABILIZED IN THESE AREAS. EXPECTING AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SATURDAY...MODELS SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ON
SUNDAY AND THEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON MONDAY. MAINLY
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
BEGINS ON TUESDAY WHERE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER
IN THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR
TUESDAY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY LEADING TO THE CHANCE FOR SOME POPUP TSRA, BUT THE
TIMING OF THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT DIFFERS. 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OFFERING A LATER FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING MID-DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO TO
SHOW A FASTER ARRIVAL TIME TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES, SO HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST A BLEND WITH SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN A LITTLE
MORE CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY,
GUIDANCE IS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN TURNING
QUIET FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT
WITH VERY LITTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SO WE SHOULD SEE A DRY END TO THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES, HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL PROVIDE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THOUGH CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR. A FEW
POPUP SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS OF
KSLK/KPBG/KBTV BUT SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH NO CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO
LIGHT OVERNIGHT, TURNING TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR
KPBG WHERE DIRECTION WILL BE SOUTHEAST DUE TO LAKE BREEZE

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
18Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 042327
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
727 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT SATURDAY...AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTERNOON MOVED INTO
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING. AREA OF
SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM ORLEANS COUNTY
VERMONT SOUTHWEST INTO ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK. LIGHTNING ON THE
DECREASE...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS PRECIPITATION
ENTERS MORE STABLE AIRMASS. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL ALSO DECREASE
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THE THREAT FOR A FEW MORE POPUP
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WITH LATEST UPDATE...HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. WITH TODAYS
RAINFALL AND EXPECTATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING LATER
TONIGHT...HAVE ADDED MENTION OF SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE MORE CLIMO
FAVORED MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS WITH SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. WILL GO WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HAVE
CONFINED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT EARLY TONIGHT...AS LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING
CONDITIONS HAVE DESTABILIZED IN THESE AREAS. EXPECTING AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SATURDAY...MODELS SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ON
SUNDAY AND THEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON MONDAY. MAINLY
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
BEGINS ON TUESDAY WHERE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER
IN THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR
TUESDAY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY LEADING TO THE CHANCE FOR SOME POPUP TSRA, BUT THE
TIMING OF THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT DIFFERS. 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OFFERING A LATER FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING MID-DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO TO
SHOW A FASTER ARRIVAL TIME TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES, SO HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST A BLEND WITH SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN A LITTLE
MORE CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY,
GUIDANCE IS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN TURNING
QUIET FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT
WITH VERY LITTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SO WE SHOULD SEE A DRY END TO THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES, HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL PROVIDE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THOUGH CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR. A FEW
POPUP SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS OF
KSLK/KPBG/KBTV BUT SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH NO CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO
LIGHT OVERNIGHT, TURNING TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR
KPBG WHERE DIRECTION WILL BE SOUTHEAST DUE TO LAKE BREEZE

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
18Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 042327
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
727 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT SATURDAY...AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTERNOON MOVED INTO
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING. AREA OF
SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM ORLEANS COUNTY
VERMONT SOUTHWEST INTO ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK. LIGHTNING ON THE
DECREASE...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS PRECIPITATION
ENTERS MORE STABLE AIRMASS. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL ALSO DECREASE
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THE THREAT FOR A FEW MORE POPUP
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WITH LATEST UPDATE...HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. WITH TODAYS
RAINFALL AND EXPECTATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING LATER
TONIGHT...HAVE ADDED MENTION OF SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE MORE CLIMO
FAVORED MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS WITH SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. WILL GO WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HAVE
CONFINED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT EARLY TONIGHT...AS LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING
CONDITIONS HAVE DESTABILIZED IN THESE AREAS. EXPECTING AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SATURDAY...MODELS SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ON
SUNDAY AND THEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON MONDAY. MAINLY
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
BEGINS ON TUESDAY WHERE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER
IN THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR
TUESDAY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY LEADING TO THE CHANCE FOR SOME POPUP TSRA, BUT THE
TIMING OF THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT DIFFERS. 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OFFERING A LATER FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING MID-DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO TO
SHOW A FASTER ARRIVAL TIME TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES, SO HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST A BLEND WITH SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN A LITTLE
MORE CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY,
GUIDANCE IS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN TURNING
QUIET FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT
WITH VERY LITTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SO WE SHOULD SEE A DRY END TO THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES, HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL PROVIDE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THOUGH CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR. A FEW
POPUP SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS OF
KSLK/KPBG/KBTV BUT SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH NO CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO
LIGHT OVERNIGHT, TURNING TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR
KPBG WHERE DIRECTION WILL BE SOUTHEAST DUE TO LAKE BREEZE

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
18Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 042327
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
727 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT SATURDAY...AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTERNOON MOVED INTO
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING. AREA OF
SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM ORLEANS COUNTY
VERMONT SOUTHWEST INTO ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK. LIGHTNING ON THE
DECREASE...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS PRECIPITATION
ENTERS MORE STABLE AIRMASS. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL ALSO DECREASE
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THE THREAT FOR A FEW MORE POPUP
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WITH LATEST UPDATE...HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. WITH TODAYS
RAINFALL AND EXPECTATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING LATER
TONIGHT...HAVE ADDED MENTION OF SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE MORE CLIMO
FAVORED MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS WITH SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. WILL GO WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HAVE
CONFINED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT EARLY TONIGHT...AS LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING
CONDITIONS HAVE DESTABILIZED IN THESE AREAS. EXPECTING AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SATURDAY...MODELS SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ON
SUNDAY AND THEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON MONDAY. MAINLY
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
BEGINS ON TUESDAY WHERE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER
IN THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR
TUESDAY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY LEADING TO THE CHANCE FOR SOME POPUP TSRA, BUT THE
TIMING OF THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT DIFFERS. 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OFFERING A LATER FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING MID-DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO TO
SHOW A FASTER ARRIVAL TIME TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES, SO HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST A BLEND WITH SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN A LITTLE
MORE CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY,
GUIDANCE IS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN TURNING
QUIET FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT
WITH VERY LITTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SO WE SHOULD SEE A DRY END TO THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES, HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL PROVIDE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THOUGH CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR. A FEW
POPUP SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS OF
KSLK/KPBG/KBTV BUT SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH NO CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO
LIGHT OVERNIGHT, TURNING TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR
KPBG WHERE DIRECTION WILL BE SOUTHEAST DUE TO LAKE BREEZE

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
18Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KALY 042314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL EXIT THE
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER TO RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 714 PM EDT...STEADY RAINFALL HAS EXITED THE REGION.
HOWEVER...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES EARLY
THIS EVENING...AS INSTABILITY BUILT ACROSS THIS AREA DUE TO
SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION IS BEING TRIGGERED
BY A LAGGING UPPER LEVEL TROF. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
HAMILTON COUNTY HAVE BEEN MAINLY A NUISANCE...HOWEVER THERE ARE
SOME STRONGER STORMS IN NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY JUST NORTH OF OLD
FORGE WHERE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT HOUR. CONVECTION WILL TEND TO DECREASE AFTER DARK...AND
SHOULD COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. RAISED POPS WHERE THE
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING AND WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES INTO
NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY THIS EVENING. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THIS EVENING.

THIS TROF WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND ALL
SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END. EVENTUALLY ANY LINGERING CLOUDINESS
WILL DECREASE IN ALL AREAS TONIGHT...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MAINLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH
SOME UPPER 40S OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PER THE NCEP
MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND
INCREASINGLY WARMER TEMPERATURES /AND HUMIDITY/ AS H850 TEMPS
MODERATE INTO THE MID TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO
THE 80S MOST PLACES ON MONDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY JULY
SUNSHINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
LOW WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. HAVE FORECAST CLOUDS TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT WILL BECOME
VERY HUMID MONDAY NIGHT AND TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP TO LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

THE EXTENDED STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE...
CREATING A SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO APPROACH THE
REGION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS IT TURNS MORE HUMID.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. IT LOOKS TO COMES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL DAY...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
WITH A PRETTY GOOD WIND FIELD ALOFT...WE WILL HAVE WATCH TO SEE HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY COMES INTO PLAY...AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. IF THE FRONT WERE TO MOVE A LITTLE FAST
(AS THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF WOULD IMPLY) THERE WOULD LESS INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.
IF THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE 12Z CANADIAN MODEL WORKS OUT...THERE WOULD
MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR INSTABILITY/STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

EITHER WAY...ALL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUR REGION BY
THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER HUMIDITY TO WORK IN FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

BY SUNDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED ANOTHER TROUGH TO BEGIN CARVING OUT
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS WAS A LITTLE FLATTER AND NORTH WITH THIS IDEA
WHILE THE ECMWF HAD A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH ANCHORED FURTHER WEST WITH A GIANT UPPER AIR
LOW CLOSE TO JAMES BAY. FOR NOW...WE WILL GO WITH THE IDEA ANOTHER COLD
FRONT/SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO SLOWLY APPROACH OUR REGION SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE
IN HUMIDITY AND AT LEAST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM LOWER TO MID 80S EACH DAY IN THE
VALLEYS...75 TO 80 HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID OR
UPPER 50S IN OUTLYING AREAS AND HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS
FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1745Z...THE SHIELD OF RAIN WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL WILL LIKELY ALLOW MVFR
CIGS/DRIZZLE AND FOG(PERHAPS EVEN BRIEF IFR PERIODS) TO PERSIST A
LITTLE WHILE LONGER AT ALL THE TAF SITES.

WE ARE SEEING CLEARING WELL TO THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THIS
CLEARING WILL LIKELY REACH THE TAFS BEFORE END OF THE DAY.

THE CLEARING AT NIGHT...ALONG WITH LITTLE OR NO WIND AND RESIDUAL
WET GROUND...SHOULD YIELD TO SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. ONE MITIGATING
FACTOR FOG FORMATION WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
STILL SLATED TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME THIS
EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...PERHAPS STIRRING THE WIND UP A LITTLE.

FOR NOW...WENT IFR MIST/CIGS AT KPSF AND KGFL FROM 08Z-12Z...AND
ONLY MVFR MIST AT KALB/KPOU. WE WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

AFTER WE LOOSE THE FOG SUNDAY (AFTER 12Z)...IT LOOKS LIKE A MUCH
BETTER DAY FOR FLYING AS WE RETURN TO FULL VFR CONDITIONS...WITH
FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPING WITH LIGHT TO NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5KTS.
VISIBILITY WILL BE UNRESTRICTED.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES
AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THEN GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALTHOUGH RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO A HALF
INCH OR A LITTLE MORE FELL IN SOME AREAS TODAY...THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE REGION HAD LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH LITTLE OR
NO RAINFALL OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS RAINFALL HAD LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 042314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL EXIT THE
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER TO RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 714 PM EDT...STEADY RAINFALL HAS EXITED THE REGION.
HOWEVER...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES EARLY
THIS EVENING...AS INSTABILITY BUILT ACROSS THIS AREA DUE TO
SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION IS BEING TRIGGERED
BY A LAGGING UPPER LEVEL TROF. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
HAMILTON COUNTY HAVE BEEN MAINLY A NUISANCE...HOWEVER THERE ARE
SOME STRONGER STORMS IN NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY JUST NORTH OF OLD
FORGE WHERE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT HOUR. CONVECTION WILL TEND TO DECREASE AFTER DARK...AND
SHOULD COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. RAISED POPS WHERE THE
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING AND WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES INTO
NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY THIS EVENING. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THIS EVENING.

THIS TROF WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND ALL
SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END. EVENTUALLY ANY LINGERING CLOUDINESS
WILL DECREASE IN ALL AREAS TONIGHT...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MAINLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH
SOME UPPER 40S OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PER THE NCEP
MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND
INCREASINGLY WARMER TEMPERATURES /AND HUMIDITY/ AS H850 TEMPS
MODERATE INTO THE MID TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO
THE 80S MOST PLACES ON MONDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY JULY
SUNSHINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
LOW WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. HAVE FORECAST CLOUDS TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT WILL BECOME
VERY HUMID MONDAY NIGHT AND TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP TO LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

THE EXTENDED STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE...
CREATING A SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO APPROACH THE
REGION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS IT TURNS MORE HUMID.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. IT LOOKS TO COMES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL DAY...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
WITH A PRETTY GOOD WIND FIELD ALOFT...WE WILL HAVE WATCH TO SEE HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY COMES INTO PLAY...AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. IF THE FRONT WERE TO MOVE A LITTLE FAST
(AS THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF WOULD IMPLY) THERE WOULD LESS INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.
IF THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE 12Z CANADIAN MODEL WORKS OUT...THERE WOULD
MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR INSTABILITY/STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

EITHER WAY...ALL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUR REGION BY
THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER HUMIDITY TO WORK IN FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

BY SUNDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED ANOTHER TROUGH TO BEGIN CARVING OUT
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS WAS A LITTLE FLATTER AND NORTH WITH THIS IDEA
WHILE THE ECMWF HAD A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH ANCHORED FURTHER WEST WITH A GIANT UPPER AIR
LOW CLOSE TO JAMES BAY. FOR NOW...WE WILL GO WITH THE IDEA ANOTHER COLD
FRONT/SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO SLOWLY APPROACH OUR REGION SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE
IN HUMIDITY AND AT LEAST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM LOWER TO MID 80S EACH DAY IN THE
VALLEYS...75 TO 80 HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID OR
UPPER 50S IN OUTLYING AREAS AND HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS
FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1745Z...THE SHIELD OF RAIN WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL WILL LIKELY ALLOW MVFR
CIGS/DRIZZLE AND FOG(PERHAPS EVEN BRIEF IFR PERIODS) TO PERSIST A
LITTLE WHILE LONGER AT ALL THE TAF SITES.

WE ARE SEEING CLEARING WELL TO THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THIS
CLEARING WILL LIKELY REACH THE TAFS BEFORE END OF THE DAY.

THE CLEARING AT NIGHT...ALONG WITH LITTLE OR NO WIND AND RESIDUAL
WET GROUND...SHOULD YIELD TO SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. ONE MITIGATING
FACTOR FOG FORMATION WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
STILL SLATED TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME THIS
EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...PERHAPS STIRRING THE WIND UP A LITTLE.

FOR NOW...WENT IFR MIST/CIGS AT KPSF AND KGFL FROM 08Z-12Z...AND
ONLY MVFR MIST AT KALB/KPOU. WE WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

AFTER WE LOOSE THE FOG SUNDAY (AFTER 12Z)...IT LOOKS LIKE A MUCH
BETTER DAY FOR FLYING AS WE RETURN TO FULL VFR CONDITIONS...WITH
FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPING WITH LIGHT TO NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5KTS.
VISIBILITY WILL BE UNRESTRICTED.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES
AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THEN GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALTHOUGH RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO A HALF
INCH OR A LITTLE MORE FELL IN SOME AREAS TODAY...THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE REGION HAD LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH LITTLE OR
NO RAINFALL OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS RAINFALL HAD LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 042314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL EXIT THE
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER TO RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 714 PM EDT...STEADY RAINFALL HAS EXITED THE REGION.
HOWEVER...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES EARLY
THIS EVENING...AS INSTABILITY BUILT ACROSS THIS AREA DUE TO
SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION IS BEING TRIGGERED
BY A LAGGING UPPER LEVEL TROF. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
HAMILTON COUNTY HAVE BEEN MAINLY A NUISANCE...HOWEVER THERE ARE
SOME STRONGER STORMS IN NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY JUST NORTH OF OLD
FORGE WHERE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT HOUR. CONVECTION WILL TEND TO DECREASE AFTER DARK...AND
SHOULD COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. RAISED POPS WHERE THE
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING AND WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES INTO
NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY THIS EVENING. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THIS EVENING.

THIS TROF WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND ALL
SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END. EVENTUALLY ANY LINGERING CLOUDINESS
WILL DECREASE IN ALL AREAS TONIGHT...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MAINLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH
SOME UPPER 40S OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PER THE NCEP
MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND
INCREASINGLY WARMER TEMPERATURES /AND HUMIDITY/ AS H850 TEMPS
MODERATE INTO THE MID TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO
THE 80S MOST PLACES ON MONDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY JULY
SUNSHINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
LOW WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. HAVE FORECAST CLOUDS TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT WILL BECOME
VERY HUMID MONDAY NIGHT AND TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP TO LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

THE EXTENDED STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE...
CREATING A SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO APPROACH THE
REGION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS IT TURNS MORE HUMID.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. IT LOOKS TO COMES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL DAY...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
WITH A PRETTY GOOD WIND FIELD ALOFT...WE WILL HAVE WATCH TO SEE HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY COMES INTO PLAY...AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. IF THE FRONT WERE TO MOVE A LITTLE FAST
(AS THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF WOULD IMPLY) THERE WOULD LESS INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.
IF THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE 12Z CANADIAN MODEL WORKS OUT...THERE WOULD
MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR INSTABILITY/STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

EITHER WAY...ALL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUR REGION BY
THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER HUMIDITY TO WORK IN FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

BY SUNDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED ANOTHER TROUGH TO BEGIN CARVING OUT
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS WAS A LITTLE FLATTER AND NORTH WITH THIS IDEA
WHILE THE ECMWF HAD A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH ANCHORED FURTHER WEST WITH A GIANT UPPER AIR
LOW CLOSE TO JAMES BAY. FOR NOW...WE WILL GO WITH THE IDEA ANOTHER COLD
FRONT/SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO SLOWLY APPROACH OUR REGION SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE
IN HUMIDITY AND AT LEAST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM LOWER TO MID 80S EACH DAY IN THE
VALLEYS...75 TO 80 HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID OR
UPPER 50S IN OUTLYING AREAS AND HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS
FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1745Z...THE SHIELD OF RAIN WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL WILL LIKELY ALLOW MVFR
CIGS/DRIZZLE AND FOG(PERHAPS EVEN BRIEF IFR PERIODS) TO PERSIST A
LITTLE WHILE LONGER AT ALL THE TAF SITES.

WE ARE SEEING CLEARING WELL TO THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THIS
CLEARING WILL LIKELY REACH THE TAFS BEFORE END OF THE DAY.

THE CLEARING AT NIGHT...ALONG WITH LITTLE OR NO WIND AND RESIDUAL
WET GROUND...SHOULD YIELD TO SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. ONE MITIGATING
FACTOR FOG FORMATION WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
STILL SLATED TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME THIS
EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...PERHAPS STIRRING THE WIND UP A LITTLE.

FOR NOW...WENT IFR MIST/CIGS AT KPSF AND KGFL FROM 08Z-12Z...AND
ONLY MVFR MIST AT KALB/KPOU. WE WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

AFTER WE LOOSE THE FOG SUNDAY (AFTER 12Z)...IT LOOKS LIKE A MUCH
BETTER DAY FOR FLYING AS WE RETURN TO FULL VFR CONDITIONS...WITH
FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPING WITH LIGHT TO NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5KTS.
VISIBILITY WILL BE UNRESTRICTED.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES
AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THEN GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALTHOUGH RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO A HALF
INCH OR A LITTLE MORE FELL IN SOME AREAS TODAY...THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE REGION HAD LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH LITTLE OR
NO RAINFALL OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS RAINFALL HAD LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 042314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL EXIT THE
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER TO RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 714 PM EDT...STEADY RAINFALL HAS EXITED THE REGION.
HOWEVER...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES EARLY
THIS EVENING...AS INSTABILITY BUILT ACROSS THIS AREA DUE TO
SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION IS BEING TRIGGERED
BY A LAGGING UPPER LEVEL TROF. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
HAMILTON COUNTY HAVE BEEN MAINLY A NUISANCE...HOWEVER THERE ARE
SOME STRONGER STORMS IN NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY JUST NORTH OF OLD
FORGE WHERE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT HOUR. CONVECTION WILL TEND TO DECREASE AFTER DARK...AND
SHOULD COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. RAISED POPS WHERE THE
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING AND WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES INTO
NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY THIS EVENING. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THIS EVENING.

THIS TROF WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND ALL
SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END. EVENTUALLY ANY LINGERING CLOUDINESS
WILL DECREASE IN ALL AREAS TONIGHT...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MAINLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH
SOME UPPER 40S OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PER THE NCEP
MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND
INCREASINGLY WARMER TEMPERATURES /AND HUMIDITY/ AS H850 TEMPS
MODERATE INTO THE MID TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO
THE 80S MOST PLACES ON MONDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY JULY
SUNSHINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
LOW WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. HAVE FORECAST CLOUDS TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT WILL BECOME
VERY HUMID MONDAY NIGHT AND TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP TO LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

THE EXTENDED STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE...
CREATING A SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO APPROACH THE
REGION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS IT TURNS MORE HUMID.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. IT LOOKS TO COMES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL DAY...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
WITH A PRETTY GOOD WIND FIELD ALOFT...WE WILL HAVE WATCH TO SEE HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY COMES INTO PLAY...AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. IF THE FRONT WERE TO MOVE A LITTLE FAST
(AS THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF WOULD IMPLY) THERE WOULD LESS INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.
IF THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE 12Z CANADIAN MODEL WORKS OUT...THERE WOULD
MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR INSTABILITY/STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

EITHER WAY...ALL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUR REGION BY
THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER HUMIDITY TO WORK IN FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

BY SUNDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED ANOTHER TROUGH TO BEGIN CARVING OUT
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS WAS A LITTLE FLATTER AND NORTH WITH THIS IDEA
WHILE THE ECMWF HAD A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH ANCHORED FURTHER WEST WITH A GIANT UPPER AIR
LOW CLOSE TO JAMES BAY. FOR NOW...WE WILL GO WITH THE IDEA ANOTHER COLD
FRONT/SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO SLOWLY APPROACH OUR REGION SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE
IN HUMIDITY AND AT LEAST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM LOWER TO MID 80S EACH DAY IN THE
VALLEYS...75 TO 80 HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID OR
UPPER 50S IN OUTLYING AREAS AND HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS
FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1745Z...THE SHIELD OF RAIN WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL WILL LIKELY ALLOW MVFR
CIGS/DRIZZLE AND FOG(PERHAPS EVEN BRIEF IFR PERIODS) TO PERSIST A
LITTLE WHILE LONGER AT ALL THE TAF SITES.

WE ARE SEEING CLEARING WELL TO THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THIS
CLEARING WILL LIKELY REACH THE TAFS BEFORE END OF THE DAY.

THE CLEARING AT NIGHT...ALONG WITH LITTLE OR NO WIND AND RESIDUAL
WET GROUND...SHOULD YIELD TO SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. ONE MITIGATING
FACTOR FOG FORMATION WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
STILL SLATED TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME THIS
EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...PERHAPS STIRRING THE WIND UP A LITTLE.

FOR NOW...WENT IFR MIST/CIGS AT KPSF AND KGFL FROM 08Z-12Z...AND
ONLY MVFR MIST AT KALB/KPOU. WE WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

AFTER WE LOOSE THE FOG SUNDAY (AFTER 12Z)...IT LOOKS LIKE A MUCH
BETTER DAY FOR FLYING AS WE RETURN TO FULL VFR CONDITIONS...WITH
FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPING WITH LIGHT TO NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5KTS.
VISIBILITY WILL BE UNRESTRICTED.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES
AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THEN GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALTHOUGH RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO A HALF
INCH OR A LITTLE MORE FELL IN SOME AREAS TODAY...THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE REGION HAD LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH LITTLE OR
NO RAINFALL OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS RAINFALL HAD LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 042049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
449 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL EXIT THE
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER TO RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT...STEADY RAINFALL HAS EXITED THE REGION. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN DUE TO A LAGGING UPPER LEVEL TROF.
THIS TROF WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AND ALL
SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END. SKIES HAVE BECOME PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA AS OF 430 PM...BUT WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS PERSISTS OVER THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND AREAS TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST. EVENTUALLY CLOUDINESS WILL DECREASE IN ALL
AREAS TONIGHT...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MAINLY CLEAR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PER THE NCEP
MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND
INCREASINGLY WARMER TEMPERATURES /AND HUMIDITY/ AS H850 TEMPS
MODERATE INTO THE MID TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO
THE 80S MOST PLACES ON MONDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY JULY
SUNSHINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
LOW WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. HAVE FORECAST CLOUDS TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT WILL BECOME
VERY HUMID MONDAY NIGHT AND TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP TO LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

THE EXTENDED STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE...
CREATING A SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO APPROACH THE
REGION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS IT TURNS MORE HUMID.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. IT LOOKS TO COMES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL DAY...HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
WITH A PRETTY GOOD WIND FIELD ALOFT...WE WILL HAVE WATCH TO SEE HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY COMES INTO PLAY...AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. IF THE FRONT WERE TO MOVE A LITTLE FAST
(AS THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF WOULD IMPLY) THERE WOULD LESS INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.
IF THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE 12Z CANADIAN MODEL WORKS OUT...THERE WOULD
MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR INSTABILITY/STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

EITHER WAY...ALL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUR REGION BY
THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER HUMIDITY TO WORK IN FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.

BY SUNDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED ANOTHER TROUGH TO BEGIN CARVING OUT
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS WAS A LITTLE FLATTER AND NORTH WITH THIS IDEA
WHILE THE ECMWF HAD A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH ANCHORED FURTHER WEST WITH A GIANT UPPER AIR
LOW CLOSE TO JAMES BAY. FOR NOW...WE WILL GO WITH THE IDEA ANOTHER COLD
FRONT/SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO SLOWLY APPROACH OUR REGION SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE
IN HUMIDITY AND AT LEAST THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM LOWER TO MID 80S EACH DAY IN THE
VALLEYS...75 TO 80 HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID OR
UPPER 50S IN OUTLYING AREAS AND HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS
FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1745Z...THE SHIELD OF RAIN WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL WILL LIKELY ALLOW MVFR
CIGS/DRIZZLE AND FOG(PERHAPS EVEN BRIEF IFR PERIODS) TO PERSIST A
LITTLE WHILE LONGER AT ALL THE TAF SITES.

WE ARE SEEING CLEARING WELL TO THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THIS
CLEARING WILL LIKELY REACH THE TAFS BEFORE END OF THE DAY.

THE CLEARING AT NIGHT...ALONG WITH LITTLE OR NO WIND AND RESIDUAL
WET GROUND...SHOULD YIELD TO SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. ONE MITIGATING
FACTOR FOG FORMATION WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
STILL SLATED TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME THIS
EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...PERHAPS STIRRING THE WIND UP A LITTLE.

FOR NOW...WENT IFR MIST/CIGS AT KPSF AND KGFL FROM 08Z-12Z...AND
ONLY MVFR MIST AT KALB/KPOU. WE WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

AFTER WE LOOSE THE FOG SUNDAY (AFTER 12Z)...IT LOOKS LIKE A MUCH
BETTER DAY FOR FLYING AS WE RETURN TO FULL VFR CONDITIONS...WITH
FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPING WITH LIGHT TO NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5KTS.
VISIBILITY WILL BE UNRESTRICTED.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES
AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THEN GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALTHOUGH RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO A HALF
INCH OR A LITTLE MORE FELL IN SOME AREAS TODAY...THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE REGION HAD LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH LITTLE OR
NO RAINFALL OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS RAINFALL HAD LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM



000
FXUS61 KBTV 041951
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
351 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SATURDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS
WITH SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS
TIME. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. HAVE CONFINED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT EARLY TONIGHT...AS LAPS
ANALYSIS SHOWING CONDITIONS HAVE DESTABILIZED IN THESE AREAS.
EXPECTING AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SATURDAY...MODELS SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ON
SUNDAY AND THEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON MONDAY. MAINLY
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
BEGINS ON TUESDAY WHERE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER
IN THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR
TUESDAY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY LEADING TO THE CHANCE FOR SOME POPUP TSRA, BUT THE
TIMING OF THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT DIFFERS. 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OFFERING A LATER FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING MID-DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO TO
SHOW A FASTER ARRIVAL TIME TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES, SO HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST A BLEND WITH SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN A LITTLE
MORE CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY,
GUIDANCE IS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN TURNING
QUIET FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT
WITH VERY LITTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SO WE SHOULD SEE A DRY END TO THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES, HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL PROVIDE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THOUGH CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR. A FEW
POPUP SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS OF
KSLK/KPBG/KBTV BUT SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH NO CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO
LIGHT OVERNIGHT, TURNING TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR
KPBG WHERE DIRECTION WILL BE SOUTHEAST DUE TO LAKE BREEZE

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
18Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 041951
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
351 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SATURDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS
WITH SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS
TIME. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. HAVE CONFINED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT EARLY TONIGHT...AS LAPS
ANALYSIS SHOWING CONDITIONS HAVE DESTABILIZED IN THESE AREAS.
EXPECTING AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SATURDAY...MODELS SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ON
SUNDAY AND THEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON MONDAY. MAINLY
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
BEGINS ON TUESDAY WHERE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER
IN THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR
TUESDAY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY LEADING TO THE CHANCE FOR SOME POPUP TSRA, BUT THE
TIMING OF THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT DIFFERS. 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OFFERING A LATER FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING MID-DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO TO
SHOW A FASTER ARRIVAL TIME TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES, SO HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST A BLEND WITH SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN A LITTLE
MORE CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY,
GUIDANCE IS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN TURNING
QUIET FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT
WITH VERY LITTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SO WE SHOULD SEE A DRY END TO THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES, HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL PROVIDE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THOUGH CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR. A FEW
POPUP SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS OF
KSLK/KPBG/KBTV BUT SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH NO CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO
LIGHT OVERNIGHT, TURNING TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR
KPBG WHERE DIRECTION WILL BE SOUTHEAST DUE TO LAKE BREEZE

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
18Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 041951
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
351 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SATURDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS
WITH SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS
TIME. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. HAVE CONFINED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT EARLY TONIGHT...AS LAPS
ANALYSIS SHOWING CONDITIONS HAVE DESTABILIZED IN THESE AREAS.
EXPECTING AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SATURDAY...MODELS SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ON
SUNDAY AND THEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON MONDAY. MAINLY
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
BEGINS ON TUESDAY WHERE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER
IN THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR
TUESDAY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY LEADING TO THE CHANCE FOR SOME POPUP TSRA, BUT THE
TIMING OF THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT DIFFERS. 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OFFERING A LATER FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING MID-DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO TO
SHOW A FASTER ARRIVAL TIME TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES, SO HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST A BLEND WITH SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN A LITTLE
MORE CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY,
GUIDANCE IS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN TURNING
QUIET FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT
WITH VERY LITTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SO WE SHOULD SEE A DRY END TO THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES, HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL PROVIDE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THOUGH CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR. A FEW
POPUP SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS OF
KSLK/KPBG/KBTV BUT SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH NO CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO
LIGHT OVERNIGHT, TURNING TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR
KPBG WHERE DIRECTION WILL BE SOUTHEAST DUE TO LAKE BREEZE

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
18Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 041951
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
351 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SATURDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS
WITH SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS
TIME. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. HAVE CONFINED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT EARLY TONIGHT...AS LAPS
ANALYSIS SHOWING CONDITIONS HAVE DESTABILIZED IN THESE AREAS.
EXPECTING AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT SATURDAY...MODELS SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S ON
SUNDAY AND THEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON MONDAY. MAINLY
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
BEGINS ON TUESDAY WHERE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER
IN THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR
TUESDAY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY LEADING TO THE CHANCE FOR SOME POPUP TSRA, BUT THE
TIMING OF THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT DIFFERS. 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OFFERING A LATER FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING MID-DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO TO
SHOW A FASTER ARRIVAL TIME TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES, SO HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST A BLEND WITH SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN A LITTLE
MORE CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY,
GUIDANCE IS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN TURNING
QUIET FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT
WITH VERY LITTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SO WE SHOULD SEE A DRY END TO THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES, HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL PROVIDE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THOUGH CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR. A FEW
POPUP SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS OF
KSLK/KPBG/KBTV BUT SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH NO CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO
LIGHT OVERNIGHT, TURNING TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR
KPBG WHERE DIRECTION WILL BE SOUTHEAST DUE TO LAKE BREEZE

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
18Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 041922
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
322 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 70S
TODAY WITH MORE CLOUDS...BUT WILL BE WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH
EXPECTED SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 155 PM EDT SATURDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO NEW
HAMPSHIRE AT THIS TIME. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP ALSO SHOWING SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. HAVE KEPT IN
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AS LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING SOME DESTABILIZATION THERE AT
THIS TIME. HAVE KEPT THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DRY AS DEW POINTS
AT MASSENA HAVE DROPPED WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVING IN THERE AT
THIS TIME. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHABNCE FOR MOST AREAS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...NORTHERN STREAM 5H VORT WILL SWING
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WHILE RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE QUICKLY SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE BY 06Z. ANY
SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN OR BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...INCLUDING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. GIVEN TIMING
OF SHOWERS...SOME EVENING ACTIVITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE HOLIDAY
MAYBE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CPV VALLEY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN VT BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. EXPECT AREAS OF CLEARING TO
DEVELOP AFT 06Z WITH 1021MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO OUR CWA.
SOME PATCHY FOG/BR IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE DEEPER/PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS OF THE DACKS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLEARING...MAINLY 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO MID/UPPER
50S CPV.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NE CONUS
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES. STILL NOTICING ANOTHER 5H VORT IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IMPACTING NORTHERN VT BTWN 18Z-00Z SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
NEAR 12C...SUPPORT LOWER 70S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 80F WARMER VALLEYS
ON SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12C AND 14C...SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S
MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
BEGINS ON TUESDAY WHERE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER
IN THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR
TUESDAY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY LEADING TO THE CHANCE FOR SOME POPUP TSRA, BUT THE
TIMING OF THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT DIFFERS. 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OFFERING A LATER FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING MID-DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO TO
SHOW A FASTER ARRIVAL TIME TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES, SO HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST A BLEND WITH SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN A LITTLE
MORE CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY,
GUIDANCE IS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN TURNING
QUIET FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT
WITH VERY LITTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SO WE SHOULD SEE A DRY END TO THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES, HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL PROVIDE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THOUGH CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR. A FEW
POPUP SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS OF
KSLK/KPBG/KBTV BUT SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH NO CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO
LIGHT OVERNIGHT, TURNING TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR
KPBG WHERE DIRECTION WILL BE SOUTHEAST DUE TO LAKE BREEZE

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
18Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 041922
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
322 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 70S
TODAY WITH MORE CLOUDS...BUT WILL BE WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH
EXPECTED SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 155 PM EDT SATURDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO NEW
HAMPSHIRE AT THIS TIME. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP ALSO SHOWING SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. HAVE KEPT IN
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AS LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING SOME DESTABILIZATION THERE AT
THIS TIME. HAVE KEPT THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DRY AS DEW POINTS
AT MASSENA HAVE DROPPED WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVING IN THERE AT
THIS TIME. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHABNCE FOR MOST AREAS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...NORTHERN STREAM 5H VORT WILL SWING
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WHILE RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE QUICKLY SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE BY 06Z. ANY
SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN OR BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...INCLUDING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. GIVEN TIMING
OF SHOWERS...SOME EVENING ACTIVITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE HOLIDAY
MAYBE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CPV VALLEY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN VT BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. EXPECT AREAS OF CLEARING TO
DEVELOP AFT 06Z WITH 1021MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO OUR CWA.
SOME PATCHY FOG/BR IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE DEEPER/PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS OF THE DACKS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLEARING...MAINLY 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO MID/UPPER
50S CPV.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NE CONUS
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES. STILL NOTICING ANOTHER 5H VORT IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IMPACTING NORTHERN VT BTWN 18Z-00Z SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
NEAR 12C...SUPPORT LOWER 70S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 80F WARMER VALLEYS
ON SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12C AND 14C...SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S
MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
BEGINS ON TUESDAY WHERE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER
IN THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR
TUESDAY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY LEADING TO THE CHANCE FOR SOME POPUP TSRA, BUT THE
TIMING OF THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT DIFFERS. 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OFFERING A LATER FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING MID-DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO TO
SHOW A FASTER ARRIVAL TIME TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES, SO HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST A BLEND WITH SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN A LITTLE
MORE CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY,
GUIDANCE IS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN TURNING
QUIET FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT
WITH VERY LITTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SO WE SHOULD SEE A DRY END TO THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES, HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL PROVIDE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THOUGH CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR. A FEW
POPUP SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS OF
KSLK/KPBG/KBTV BUT SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH NO CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO
LIGHT OVERNIGHT, TURNING TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR
KPBG WHERE DIRECTION WILL BE SOUTHEAST DUE TO LAKE BREEZE

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
18Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 041922
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
322 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 70S
TODAY WITH MORE CLOUDS...BUT WILL BE WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH
EXPECTED SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 155 PM EDT SATURDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO NEW
HAMPSHIRE AT THIS TIME. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP ALSO SHOWING SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. HAVE KEPT IN
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AS LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING SOME DESTABILIZATION THERE AT
THIS TIME. HAVE KEPT THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DRY AS DEW POINTS
AT MASSENA HAVE DROPPED WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVING IN THERE AT
THIS TIME. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHABNCE FOR MOST AREAS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...NORTHERN STREAM 5H VORT WILL SWING
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WHILE RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE QUICKLY SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE BY 06Z. ANY
SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN OR BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...INCLUDING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. GIVEN TIMING
OF SHOWERS...SOME EVENING ACTIVITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE HOLIDAY
MAYBE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CPV VALLEY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN VT BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. EXPECT AREAS OF CLEARING TO
DEVELOP AFT 06Z WITH 1021MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO OUR CWA.
SOME PATCHY FOG/BR IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE DEEPER/PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS OF THE DACKS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLEARING...MAINLY 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO MID/UPPER
50S CPV.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NE CONUS
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES. STILL NOTICING ANOTHER 5H VORT IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IMPACTING NORTHERN VT BTWN 18Z-00Z SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
NEAR 12C...SUPPORT LOWER 70S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 80F WARMER VALLEYS
ON SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12C AND 14C...SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S
MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT SATURDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
BEGINS ON TUESDAY WHERE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER
IN THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR
TUESDAY WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY LEADING TO THE CHANCE FOR SOME POPUP TSRA, BUT THE
TIMING OF THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT DIFFERS. 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OFFERING A LATER FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING MID-DAY WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO TO
SHOW A FASTER ARRIVAL TIME TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES, SO HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST A BLEND WITH SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN A LITTLE
MORE CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY,
GUIDANCE IS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN TURNING
QUIET FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT
WITH VERY LITTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SO WE SHOULD SEE A DRY END TO THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES, HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL PROVIDE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THOUGH CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR. A FEW
POPUP SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS OF
KSLK/KPBG/KBTV BUT SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH NO CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO
LIGHT OVERNIGHT, TURNING TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR
KPBG WHERE DIRECTION WILL BE SOUTHEAST DUE TO LAKE BREEZE

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
18Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV



000
FXUS61 KALY 041921
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
321 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL EXIT THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BRINGING AN ND TO THE RAIN
AND SHOWERS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT... WITH DRY
AND WARMER WEATHER TO RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...STEADIEST RAINFALL NOW SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALBANY. BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN GOES FROM EASTERN ULSTER COUNTY...TO
WESTERN ALBANY COUNTY AND THEN TO CENTRAL SARATOGA AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES. EXPECT THIS BACK EDGE TO STEADILY MOVE EASTWARD DURING
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING AN END TO STEADY RAINFALL IN
ALL AREAS BY 4 OR 5 PM. HOWEVER...THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF
MAY STILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS IN ALL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HAVE FORECAST LIKELY TO CATGORICAL POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO
LOWER TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE BY LATER IN THE DAY. OVER THE
NORTHWEST...SLIGHT TO CHANCE ARE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PER THE NCEP MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES /AND HUMIDITY/ AS H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID
TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE
70S AND LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO THE 80S /SUB 90F/ ON
MONDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY JULY SUNSHINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL AVERAGE MAINLY INTO THE
55-60F GENERAL RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE 00Z GFS IS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/GGEM REGARDING THE SPEED OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE GFS SUGGEST
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BOTH ON TUESDAY ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD/ALONG THE ACTUAL
BOUNDARY...WHILE THE GGEM/ECMWF ARE MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LOW
CHC POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HIGH CHC POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS LOOK FAIRLY WARM IN THE MID 80S FOR BOTH TUES/WED
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH MUGGY LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
VALLEY AREAS FOR BOTH MON AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY WINDING UP STALLING JUST SOUTH/EAST OF THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHC
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. IF THE FRONT IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE...IT COULD WIND UP JUST DRY EVERYWHERE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND LESS HUMID BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S FOR THURS/FRI...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COULD APPROACH THE REGION FOR SOME POINT NEXT
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1745Z...THE SHIELD OF RAIN WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL WILL LIKELY ALLOW MVFR
CIGS/DRIZZLE AND FOG(PERHAPS EVEN BRIEF IFR PERIODS) TO PERSIST A
LITTLE WHILE LONGER AT ALL THE TAF SITES.

WE ARE SEEING CLEARING WELL TO THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THIS
CLEARING WILL LIKELY REACH THE TAFS BEFORE END OF THE DAY.

THE CLEARING AT NIGHT...ALONG WITH LITTLE OR NO WIND AND RESIDUAL
WET GROUND...SHOULD YIELD TO SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. ONE MITIGATING
FACTOR FOG FORMATION WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
STILL SLATED TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME THIS
EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...PERHAPS STIRRING THE WIND UP A LITTLE.

FOR NOW...WENT IFR MIST/CIGS AT KPSF AND KGFL FROM 08Z-12Z...AND
ONLY MVFR MIST AT KALB/KPOU. WE WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

AFTER WE LOOSE THE FOG SUNDAY (AFTER 12Z)...IT LOOKS LIKE A MUCH
BETTER DAY FOR FLYING AS WE RETURN TO FULL VFR CONDITIONS...WITH
FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPING WITH LIGHT TO NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5KTS.
VISIBILITY WILL BE UNRESTRICTED.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING WET WEATHER PROBABILITIES THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WILL KEEP RH VALUES RATHER ELEVATED TO
BETWEEN 55-75 PERCENT. MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THEN GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF A PERIOD WITH WET CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WITH FORECAST QPF/S
RANGING FROM ONE-TENTH TO ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS /MAINLY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS/. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON FLOWS ON AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 041921
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
321 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL EXIT THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BRINGING AN ND TO THE RAIN
AND SHOWERS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT... WITH DRY
AND WARMER WEATHER TO RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...STEADIEST RAINFALL NOW SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALBANY. BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN GOES FROM EASTERN ULSTER COUNTY...TO
WESTERN ALBANY COUNTY AND THEN TO CENTRAL SARATOGA AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES. EXPECT THIS BACK EDGE TO STEADILY MOVE EASTWARD DURING
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING AN END TO STEADY RAINFALL IN
ALL AREAS BY 4 OR 5 PM. HOWEVER...THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF
MAY STILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS IN ALL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HAVE FORECAST LIKELY TO CATGORICAL POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO
LOWER TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE BY LATER IN THE DAY. OVER THE
NORTHWEST...SLIGHT TO CHANCE ARE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PER THE NCEP MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES /AND HUMIDITY/ AS H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID
TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE
70S AND LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO THE 80S /SUB 90F/ ON
MONDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY JULY SUNSHINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL AVERAGE MAINLY INTO THE
55-60F GENERAL RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE 00Z GFS IS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/GGEM REGARDING THE SPEED OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE GFS SUGGEST
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BOTH ON TUESDAY ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD/ALONG THE ACTUAL
BOUNDARY...WHILE THE GGEM/ECMWF ARE MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LOW
CHC POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HIGH CHC POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS LOOK FAIRLY WARM IN THE MID 80S FOR BOTH TUES/WED
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH MUGGY LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
VALLEY AREAS FOR BOTH MON AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY WINDING UP STALLING JUST SOUTH/EAST OF THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHC
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. IF THE FRONT IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE...IT COULD WIND UP JUST DRY EVERYWHERE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND LESS HUMID BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S FOR THURS/FRI...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COULD APPROACH THE REGION FOR SOME POINT NEXT
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1745Z...THE SHIELD OF RAIN WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL WILL LIKELY ALLOW MVFR
CIGS/DRIZZLE AND FOG(PERHAPS EVEN BRIEF IFR PERIODS) TO PERSIST A
LITTLE WHILE LONGER AT ALL THE TAF SITES.

WE ARE SEEING CLEARING WELL TO THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THIS
CLEARING WILL LIKELY REACH THE TAFS BEFORE END OF THE DAY.

THE CLEARING AT NIGHT...ALONG WITH LITTLE OR NO WIND AND RESIDUAL
WET GROUND...SHOULD YIELD TO SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. ONE MITIGATING
FACTOR FOG FORMATION WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
STILL SLATED TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME THIS
EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...PERHAPS STIRRING THE WIND UP A LITTLE.

FOR NOW...WENT IFR MIST/CIGS AT KPSF AND KGFL FROM 08Z-12Z...AND
ONLY MVFR MIST AT KALB/KPOU. WE WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

AFTER WE LOOSE THE FOG SUNDAY (AFTER 12Z)...IT LOOKS LIKE A MUCH
BETTER DAY FOR FLYING AS WE RETURN TO FULL VFR CONDITIONS...WITH
FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPING WITH LIGHT TO NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5KTS.
VISIBILITY WILL BE UNRESTRICTED.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING WET WEATHER PROBABILITIES THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WILL KEEP RH VALUES RATHER ELEVATED TO
BETWEEN 55-75 PERCENT. MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THEN GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF A PERIOD WITH WET CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WITH FORECAST QPF/S
RANGING FROM ONE-TENTH TO ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS /MAINLY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS/. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON FLOWS ON AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 041921
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
321 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL EXIT THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BRINGING AN ND TO THE RAIN
AND SHOWERS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT... WITH DRY
AND WARMER WEATHER TO RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...STEADIEST RAINFALL NOW SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALBANY. BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN GOES FROM EASTERN ULSTER COUNTY...TO
WESTERN ALBANY COUNTY AND THEN TO CENTRAL SARATOGA AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES. EXPECT THIS BACK EDGE TO STEADILY MOVE EASTWARD DURING
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING AN END TO STEADY RAINFALL IN
ALL AREAS BY 4 OR 5 PM. HOWEVER...THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF
MAY STILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS IN ALL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HAVE FORECAST LIKELY TO CATGORICAL POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO
LOWER TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE BY LATER IN THE DAY. OVER THE
NORTHWEST...SLIGHT TO CHANCE ARE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PER THE NCEP MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES /AND HUMIDITY/ AS H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID
TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE
70S AND LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO THE 80S /SUB 90F/ ON
MONDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY JULY SUNSHINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL AVERAGE MAINLY INTO THE
55-60F GENERAL RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE 00Z GFS IS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/GGEM REGARDING THE SPEED OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE GFS SUGGEST
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BOTH ON TUESDAY ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD/ALONG THE ACTUAL
BOUNDARY...WHILE THE GGEM/ECMWF ARE MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LOW
CHC POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HIGH CHC POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS LOOK FAIRLY WARM IN THE MID 80S FOR BOTH TUES/WED
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH MUGGY LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
VALLEY AREAS FOR BOTH MON AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY WINDING UP STALLING JUST SOUTH/EAST OF THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHC
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. IF THE FRONT IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE...IT COULD WIND UP JUST DRY EVERYWHERE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND LESS HUMID BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S FOR THURS/FRI...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COULD APPROACH THE REGION FOR SOME POINT NEXT
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1745Z...THE SHIELD OF RAIN WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL WILL LIKELY ALLOW MVFR
CIGS/DRIZZLE AND FOG(PERHAPS EVEN BRIEF IFR PERIODS) TO PERSIST A
LITTLE WHILE LONGER AT ALL THE TAF SITES.

WE ARE SEEING CLEARING WELL TO THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THIS
CLEARING WILL LIKELY REACH THE TAFS BEFORE END OF THE DAY.

THE CLEARING AT NIGHT...ALONG WITH LITTLE OR NO WIND AND RESIDUAL
WET GROUND...SHOULD YIELD TO SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. ONE MITIGATING
FACTOR FOG FORMATION WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
STILL SLATED TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME THIS
EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...PERHAPS STIRRING THE WIND UP A LITTLE.

FOR NOW...WENT IFR MIST/CIGS AT KPSF AND KGFL FROM 08Z-12Z...AND
ONLY MVFR MIST AT KALB/KPOU. WE WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

AFTER WE LOOSE THE FOG SUNDAY (AFTER 12Z)...IT LOOKS LIKE A MUCH
BETTER DAY FOR FLYING AS WE RETURN TO FULL VFR CONDITIONS...WITH
FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPING WITH LIGHT TO NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5KTS.
VISIBILITY WILL BE UNRESTRICTED.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING WET WEATHER PROBABILITIES THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WILL KEEP RH VALUES RATHER ELEVATED TO
BETWEEN 55-75 PERCENT. MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THEN GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF A PERIOD WITH WET CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WITH FORECAST QPF/S
RANGING FROM ONE-TENTH TO ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS /MAINLY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS/. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON FLOWS ON AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 041921
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
321 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL EXIT THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BRINGING AN ND TO THE RAIN
AND SHOWERS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT... WITH DRY
AND WARMER WEATHER TO RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...STEADIEST RAINFALL NOW SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALBANY. BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN GOES FROM EASTERN ULSTER COUNTY...TO
WESTERN ALBANY COUNTY AND THEN TO CENTRAL SARATOGA AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES. EXPECT THIS BACK EDGE TO STEADILY MOVE EASTWARD DURING
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING AN END TO STEADY RAINFALL IN
ALL AREAS BY 4 OR 5 PM. HOWEVER...THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF
MAY STILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS IN ALL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HAVE FORECAST LIKELY TO CATGORICAL POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO
LOWER TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE BY LATER IN THE DAY. OVER THE
NORTHWEST...SLIGHT TO CHANCE ARE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PER THE NCEP MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES /AND HUMIDITY/ AS H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID
TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE
70S AND LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO THE 80S /SUB 90F/ ON
MONDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY JULY SUNSHINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL AVERAGE MAINLY INTO THE
55-60F GENERAL RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE 00Z GFS IS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/GGEM REGARDING THE SPEED OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE GFS SUGGEST
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BOTH ON TUESDAY ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD/ALONG THE ACTUAL
BOUNDARY...WHILE THE GGEM/ECMWF ARE MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LOW
CHC POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HIGH CHC POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS LOOK FAIRLY WARM IN THE MID 80S FOR BOTH TUES/WED
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH MUGGY LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
VALLEY AREAS FOR BOTH MON AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY WINDING UP STALLING JUST SOUTH/EAST OF THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHC
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. IF THE FRONT IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE...IT COULD WIND UP JUST DRY EVERYWHERE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND LESS HUMID BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S FOR THURS/FRI...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COULD APPROACH THE REGION FOR SOME POINT NEXT
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1745Z...THE SHIELD OF RAIN WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL WILL LIKELY ALLOW MVFR
CIGS/DRIZZLE AND FOG(PERHAPS EVEN BRIEF IFR PERIODS) TO PERSIST A
LITTLE WHILE LONGER AT ALL THE TAF SITES.

WE ARE SEEING CLEARING WELL TO THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THIS
CLEARING WILL LIKELY REACH THE TAFS BEFORE END OF THE DAY.

THE CLEARING AT NIGHT...ALONG WITH LITTLE OR NO WIND AND RESIDUAL
WET GROUND...SHOULD YIELD TO SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. ONE MITIGATING
FACTOR FOG FORMATION WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
STILL SLATED TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME THIS
EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...PERHAPS STIRRING THE WIND UP A LITTLE.

FOR NOW...WENT IFR MIST/CIGS AT KPSF AND KGFL FROM 08Z-12Z...AND
ONLY MVFR MIST AT KALB/KPOU. WE WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

AFTER WE LOOSE THE FOG SUNDAY (AFTER 12Z)...IT LOOKS LIKE A MUCH
BETTER DAY FOR FLYING AS WE RETURN TO FULL VFR CONDITIONS...WITH
FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPING WITH LIGHT TO NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5KTS.
VISIBILITY WILL BE UNRESTRICTED.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING WET WEATHER PROBABILITIES THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WILL KEEP RH VALUES RATHER ELEVATED TO
BETWEEN 55-75 PERCENT. MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THEN GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF A PERIOD WITH WET CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WITH FORECAST QPF/S
RANGING FROM ONE-TENTH TO ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS /MAINLY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS/. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON FLOWS ON AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 041921
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
321 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL EXIT THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BRINGING AN ND TO THE RAIN
AND SHOWERS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT... WITH DRY
AND WARMER WEATHER TO RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...STEADIEST RAINFALL NOW SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALBANY. BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN GOES FROM EASTERN ULSTER COUNTY...TO
WESTERN ALBANY COUNTY AND THEN TO CENTRAL SARATOGA AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES. EXPECT THIS BACK EDGE TO STEADILY MOVE EASTWARD DURING
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING AN END TO STEADY RAINFALL IN
ALL AREAS BY 4 OR 5 PM. HOWEVER...THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF
MAY STILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS IN ALL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HAVE FORECAST LIKELY TO CATGORICAL POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO
LOWER TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE BY LATER IN THE DAY. OVER THE
NORTHWEST...SLIGHT TO CHANCE ARE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PER THE NCEP MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES /AND HUMIDITY/ AS H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID
TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE
70S AND LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO THE 80S /SUB 90F/ ON
MONDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY JULY SUNSHINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL AVERAGE MAINLY INTO THE
55-60F GENERAL RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE 00Z GFS IS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/GGEM REGARDING THE SPEED OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE GFS SUGGEST
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BOTH ON TUESDAY ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD/ALONG THE ACTUAL
BOUNDARY...WHILE THE GGEM/ECMWF ARE MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LOW
CHC POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HIGH CHC POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS LOOK FAIRLY WARM IN THE MID 80S FOR BOTH TUES/WED
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH MUGGY LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
VALLEY AREAS FOR BOTH MON AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY WINDING UP STALLING JUST SOUTH/EAST OF THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHC
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. IF THE FRONT IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE...IT COULD WIND UP JUST DRY EVERYWHERE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND LESS HUMID BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S FOR THURS/FRI...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COULD APPROACH THE REGION FOR SOME POINT NEXT
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1745Z...THE SHIELD OF RAIN WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL WILL LIKELY ALLOW MVFR
CIGS/DRIZZLE AND FOG(PERHAPS EVEN BRIEF IFR PERIODS) TO PERSIST A
LITTLE WHILE LONGER AT ALL THE TAF SITES.

WE ARE SEEING CLEARING WELL TO THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THIS
CLEARING WILL LIKELY REACH THE TAFS BEFORE END OF THE DAY.

THE CLEARING AT NIGHT...ALONG WITH LITTLE OR NO WIND AND RESIDUAL
WET GROUND...SHOULD YIELD TO SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. ONE MITIGATING
FACTOR FOG FORMATION WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
STILL SLATED TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME THIS
EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...PERHAPS STIRRING THE WIND UP A LITTLE.

FOR NOW...WENT IFR MIST/CIGS AT KPSF AND KGFL FROM 08Z-12Z...AND
ONLY MVFR MIST AT KALB/KPOU. WE WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

AFTER WE LOOSE THE FOG SUNDAY (AFTER 12Z)...IT LOOKS LIKE A MUCH
BETTER DAY FOR FLYING AS WE RETURN TO FULL VFR CONDITIONS...WITH
FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPING WITH LIGHT TO NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5KTS.
VISIBILITY WILL BE UNRESTRICTED.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING WET WEATHER PROBABILITIES THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WILL KEEP RH VALUES RATHER ELEVATED TO
BETWEEN 55-75 PERCENT. MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THEN GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF A PERIOD WITH WET CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WITH FORECAST QPF/S
RANGING FROM ONE-TENTH TO ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS /MAINLY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS/. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON FLOWS ON AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 041756
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
156 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL EXIT THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BRINGING AN ND TO THE RAIN
AND SHOWERS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT... WITH DRY
AND WARMER WEATHER TO RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...STEADIEST RAINFALL NOW SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALBANY. BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN GOES FROM EASTERN ULSTER COUNTY...TO
WESTERN ALBANY COUNTY AND THEN TO CENTRAL SARATOGA AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES. EXPECT THIS BACK EDGE TO STEADILY MOVE EASTWARD DURING
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING AN END TO STEADY RAINFALL IN
ALL AREAS BY 4 OR 5 PM. HOWEVER...THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF
MAY STILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS IN ALL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HAVE FORECAST LIKELY TO CATGORICAL POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO
LOWER TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE BY LATER IN THE DAY. OVER THE
NORTHWEST...SLIGHT TO CHANCE ARE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PER THE NCEP MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES /AND HUMIDITY/ AS H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID
TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE
70S AND LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO THE 80S /SUB 90F/ ON
MONDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY JULY SUNSHINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL AVERAGE MAINLY INTO THE
55-60F GENERAL RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE 00Z GFS IS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/GGEM REGARDING THE SPEED OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE GFS SUGGEST
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BOTH ON TUESDAY ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD/ALONG THE ACTUAL
BOUNDARY...WHILE THE GGEM/ECMWF ARE MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LOW
CHC POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HIGH CHC POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS LOOK FAIRLY WARM IN THE MID 80S FOR BOTH TUES/WED
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH MUGGY LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
VALLEY AREAS FOR BOTH MON AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY WINDING UP STALLING JUST SOUTH/EAST OF THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHC
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. IF THE FRONT IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE...IT COULD WIND UP JUST DRY EVERYWHERE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND LESS HUMID BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S FOR THURS/FRI...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COULD APPROACH THE REGION FOR SOME POINT NEXT
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1745Z...THE SHIELD OF RAIN WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL WILL LIKELY ALLOW MVFR
CIGS/DRIZZLE AND FOG(PERHAPS EVEN BRIEF IFR PERIODS) TO PERSIST A
LITTLE WHILE LONGER AT ALL THE TAF SITES.

WE ARE SEEING CLEARING WELL TO THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THIS
CLEARING WILL LIKELY REACH THE TAFS BEFORE END OF THE DAY.

THE CLEARING AT NIGHT...ALONG WITH LITTLE OR NO WIND AND RESIDUAL
WET GROUND...SHOULD YIELD TO SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. ONE MITIGATING
FACTOR FOG FORMATION WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
STILL SLATED TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME THIS
EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...PERHAPS STIRRING THE WIND UP A LITTLE.

FOR NOW...WENT IFR MIST/CIGS AT KPSF AND KGFL FROM 08Z-12Z...AND
ONLY MVFR MIST AT KALB/KPOU. WE WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

AFTER WE LOOSE THE FOG SUNDAY (AFTER 12Z)...IT LOOKS LIKE A MUCH
BETTER DAY FOR FLYING AS WE RETURN TO FULL VFR CONDITIONS...WITH
FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPING WITH LIGHT TO NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5KTS.
VISIBILITY WILL BE UNRESTRICTED.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING WET WEATHER PROBABILITIES THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WILL KEEP RH VALUES RATHER ELEVATED TO
BETWEEN 55-75 PERCENT. MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THEN GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF A PERIOD WITH WET CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WITH FORECAST QPF/S
RANGING FROM ONE-TENTH TO ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS /MAINLY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS/. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON FLOWS ON AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 041756
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
156 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL EXIT THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BRINGING AN ND TO THE RAIN
AND SHOWERS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT... WITH DRY
AND WARMER WEATHER TO RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...STEADIEST RAINFALL NOW SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALBANY. BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN GOES FROM EASTERN ULSTER COUNTY...TO
WESTERN ALBANY COUNTY AND THEN TO CENTRAL SARATOGA AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES. EXPECT THIS BACK EDGE TO STEADILY MOVE EASTWARD DURING
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING AN END TO STEADY RAINFALL IN
ALL AREAS BY 4 OR 5 PM. HOWEVER...THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF
MAY STILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS IN ALL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HAVE FORECAST LIKELY TO CATGORICAL POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO
LOWER TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE BY LATER IN THE DAY. OVER THE
NORTHWEST...SLIGHT TO CHANCE ARE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PER THE NCEP MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES /AND HUMIDITY/ AS H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID
TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE
70S AND LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO THE 80S /SUB 90F/ ON
MONDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY JULY SUNSHINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL AVERAGE MAINLY INTO THE
55-60F GENERAL RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE 00Z GFS IS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/GGEM REGARDING THE SPEED OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE GFS SUGGEST
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BOTH ON TUESDAY ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD/ALONG THE ACTUAL
BOUNDARY...WHILE THE GGEM/ECMWF ARE MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LOW
CHC POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HIGH CHC POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS LOOK FAIRLY WARM IN THE MID 80S FOR BOTH TUES/WED
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH MUGGY LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
VALLEY AREAS FOR BOTH MON AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY WINDING UP STALLING JUST SOUTH/EAST OF THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHC
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. IF THE FRONT IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE...IT COULD WIND UP JUST DRY EVERYWHERE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND LESS HUMID BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S FOR THURS/FRI...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COULD APPROACH THE REGION FOR SOME POINT NEXT
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1745Z...THE SHIELD OF RAIN WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL WILL LIKELY ALLOW MVFR
CIGS/DRIZZLE AND FOG(PERHAPS EVEN BRIEF IFR PERIODS) TO PERSIST A
LITTLE WHILE LONGER AT ALL THE TAF SITES.

WE ARE SEEING CLEARING WELL TO THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THIS
CLEARING WILL LIKELY REACH THE TAFS BEFORE END OF THE DAY.

THE CLEARING AT NIGHT...ALONG WITH LITTLE OR NO WIND AND RESIDUAL
WET GROUND...SHOULD YIELD TO SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. ONE MITIGATING
FACTOR FOG FORMATION WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
STILL SLATED TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME THIS
EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...PERHAPS STIRRING THE WIND UP A LITTLE.

FOR NOW...WENT IFR MIST/CIGS AT KPSF AND KGFL FROM 08Z-12Z...AND
ONLY MVFR MIST AT KALB/KPOU. WE WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

AFTER WE LOOSE THE FOG SUNDAY (AFTER 12Z)...IT LOOKS LIKE A MUCH
BETTER DAY FOR FLYING AS WE RETURN TO FULL VFR CONDITIONS...WITH
FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPING WITH LIGHT TO NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5KTS.
VISIBILITY WILL BE UNRESTRICTED.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING WET WEATHER PROBABILITIES THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WILL KEEP RH VALUES RATHER ELEVATED TO
BETWEEN 55-75 PERCENT. MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THEN GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF A PERIOD WITH WET CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WITH FORECAST QPF/S
RANGING FROM ONE-TENTH TO ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS /MAINLY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS/. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON FLOWS ON AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM



000
FXUS61 KBTV 041755
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
155 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 70S
TODAY WITH MORE CLOUDS...BUT WILL BE WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH
EXPECTED SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 155 PM EDT SATURDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO NEW
HAMPSHIRE AT THIS TIME. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP ALSO SHOWING SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. HAVE KEPT IN
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AS LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING SOME DESTABILIZATION THERE AT
THIS TIME. HAVE KEPT THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DRY AS DEW POINTS
AT MASSENA HAVE DROPPED WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVING IN THERE AT
THIS TIME. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHABNCE FOR MOST AREAS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...NORTHERN STREAM 5H VORT WILL SWING
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WHILE RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE QUICKLY SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE BY 06Z. ANY
SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN OR BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...INCLUDING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. GIVEN TIMING
OF SHOWERS...SOME EVENING ACTIVITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE HOLIDAY
MAYBE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CPV VALLEY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN VT BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. EXPECT AREAS OF CLEARING TO
DEVELOP AFT 06Z WITH 1021MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO OUR CWA.
SOME PATCHY FOG/BR IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE DEEPER/PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS OF THE DACKS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLEARING...MAINLY 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO MID/UPPER
50S CPV.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NE CONUS
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES. STILL NOTICING ANOTHER 5H VORT IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IMPACTING NORTHERN VT BTWN 18Z-00Z SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
NEAR 12C...SUPPORT LOWER 70S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 80F WARMER VALLEYS
ON SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12C AND 14C...SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S
MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY... A HINT OF SUMMER NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE. THEREAFTER...STILL LOTS
OF QUESTIONS/DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT THAT
DELIVERS OUR SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE/WED.

REST OF DISCUSSION TAKEN FROM DAYSHIFT AS SAME ISSUES/QUESTIONS OF
PAST FEW DAYS.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON MONDAY BRINGING TEMPS IN THE 80S WITH 850
TEMPS RISING TO 14-15C WILL BE PUSHING EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE.

MODELS SIMILARLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY (1000-2000J/KG
CAPE) ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO THAT WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS SO TEMPS AGAIN IN THE MID 80S.

WHERE MODELS DIFFER IS ON HOW FAST THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
WITH GFS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW
UPPER TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH, SO NOT EXPECTING A DEEPENING
TROF LIKE WE`VE HAD LATELY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES, SO WENT WITH
A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING
AROUND ON WED. TEMPS A BIT COOLER ON WED.

SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THU-FRI AS FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY
WESTERLY WITH WEAK TROFFING SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (80/60).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL PROVIDE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THOUGH CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR. A FEW
POPUP SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS OF
KSLK/KPBG/KBTV BUT SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH NO CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO
LIGHT OVERNIGHT, TURNING TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR
KPBG WHERE DIRECTION WILL BE SOUTHEAST DUE TO LAKE BREEZE

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
18Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 041755
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
155 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 70S
TODAY WITH MORE CLOUDS...BUT WILL BE WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH
EXPECTED SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 155 PM EDT SATURDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO NEW
HAMPSHIRE AT THIS TIME. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP ALSO SHOWING SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. HAVE KEPT IN
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AS LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING SOME DESTABILIZATION THERE AT
THIS TIME. HAVE KEPT THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DRY AS DEW POINTS
AT MASSENA HAVE DROPPED WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVING IN THERE AT
THIS TIME. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHABNCE FOR MOST AREAS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...NORTHERN STREAM 5H VORT WILL SWING
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WHILE RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE QUICKLY SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE BY 06Z. ANY
SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN OR BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...INCLUDING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. GIVEN TIMING
OF SHOWERS...SOME EVENING ACTIVITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE HOLIDAY
MAYBE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CPV VALLEY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN VT BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. EXPECT AREAS OF CLEARING TO
DEVELOP AFT 06Z WITH 1021MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO OUR CWA.
SOME PATCHY FOG/BR IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE DEEPER/PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS OF THE DACKS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLEARING...MAINLY 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO MID/UPPER
50S CPV.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NE CONUS
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES. STILL NOTICING ANOTHER 5H VORT IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IMPACTING NORTHERN VT BTWN 18Z-00Z SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
NEAR 12C...SUPPORT LOWER 70S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 80F WARMER VALLEYS
ON SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12C AND 14C...SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S
MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY... A HINT OF SUMMER NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE. THEREAFTER...STILL LOTS
OF QUESTIONS/DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT THAT
DELIVERS OUR SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE/WED.

REST OF DISCUSSION TAKEN FROM DAYSHIFT AS SAME ISSUES/QUESTIONS OF
PAST FEW DAYS.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON MONDAY BRINGING TEMPS IN THE 80S WITH 850
TEMPS RISING TO 14-15C WILL BE PUSHING EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE.

MODELS SIMILARLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY (1000-2000J/KG
CAPE) ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO THAT WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS SO TEMPS AGAIN IN THE MID 80S.

WHERE MODELS DIFFER IS ON HOW FAST THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
WITH GFS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW
UPPER TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH, SO NOT EXPECTING A DEEPENING
TROF LIKE WE`VE HAD LATELY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES, SO WENT WITH
A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING
AROUND ON WED. TEMPS A BIT COOLER ON WED.

SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THU-FRI AS FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY
WESTERLY WITH WEAK TROFFING SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (80/60).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL PROVIDE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THOUGH CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR. A FEW
POPUP SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS OF
KSLK/KPBG/KBTV BUT SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH NO CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO
LIGHT OVERNIGHT, TURNING TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR
KPBG WHERE DIRECTION WILL BE SOUTHEAST DUE TO LAKE BREEZE

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
18Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 041755
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
155 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 70S
TODAY WITH MORE CLOUDS...BUT WILL BE WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH
EXPECTED SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 155 PM EDT SATURDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO NEW
HAMPSHIRE AT THIS TIME. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP ALSO SHOWING SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. HAVE KEPT IN
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AS LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING SOME DESTABILIZATION THERE AT
THIS TIME. HAVE KEPT THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DRY AS DEW POINTS
AT MASSENA HAVE DROPPED WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVING IN THERE AT
THIS TIME. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHABNCE FOR MOST AREAS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...NORTHERN STREAM 5H VORT WILL SWING
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WHILE RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE QUICKLY SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE BY 06Z. ANY
SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN OR BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...INCLUDING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. GIVEN TIMING
OF SHOWERS...SOME EVENING ACTIVITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE HOLIDAY
MAYBE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CPV VALLEY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN VT BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. EXPECT AREAS OF CLEARING TO
DEVELOP AFT 06Z WITH 1021MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO OUR CWA.
SOME PATCHY FOG/BR IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE DEEPER/PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS OF THE DACKS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLEARING...MAINLY 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO MID/UPPER
50S CPV.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NE CONUS
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES. STILL NOTICING ANOTHER 5H VORT IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IMPACTING NORTHERN VT BTWN 18Z-00Z SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
NEAR 12C...SUPPORT LOWER 70S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 80F WARMER VALLEYS
ON SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12C AND 14C...SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S
MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY... A HINT OF SUMMER NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE. THEREAFTER...STILL LOTS
OF QUESTIONS/DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT THAT
DELIVERS OUR SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE/WED.

REST OF DISCUSSION TAKEN FROM DAYSHIFT AS SAME ISSUES/QUESTIONS OF
PAST FEW DAYS.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON MONDAY BRINGING TEMPS IN THE 80S WITH 850
TEMPS RISING TO 14-15C WILL BE PUSHING EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE.

MODELS SIMILARLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY (1000-2000J/KG
CAPE) ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO THAT WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS SO TEMPS AGAIN IN THE MID 80S.

WHERE MODELS DIFFER IS ON HOW FAST THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
WITH GFS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW
UPPER TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH, SO NOT EXPECTING A DEEPENING
TROF LIKE WE`VE HAD LATELY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES, SO WENT WITH
A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING
AROUND ON WED. TEMPS A BIT COOLER ON WED.

SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THU-FRI AS FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY
WESTERLY WITH WEAK TROFFING SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (80/60).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL PROVIDE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THOUGH CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR. A FEW
POPUP SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS OF
KSLK/KPBG/KBTV BUT SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH NO CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO
LIGHT OVERNIGHT, TURNING TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR
KPBG WHERE DIRECTION WILL BE SOUTHEAST DUE TO LAKE BREEZE

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
18Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 041755
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
155 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 70S
TODAY WITH MORE CLOUDS...BUT WILL BE WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH
EXPECTED SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 155 PM EDT SATURDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO NEW
HAMPSHIRE AT THIS TIME. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP ALSO SHOWING SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. HAVE KEPT IN
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AS LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING SOME DESTABILIZATION THERE AT
THIS TIME. HAVE KEPT THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DRY AS DEW POINTS
AT MASSENA HAVE DROPPED WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVING IN THERE AT
THIS TIME. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHABNCE FOR MOST AREAS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...NORTHERN STREAM 5H VORT WILL SWING
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WHILE RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE QUICKLY SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE BY 06Z. ANY
SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN OR BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...INCLUDING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. GIVEN TIMING
OF SHOWERS...SOME EVENING ACTIVITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE HOLIDAY
MAYBE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CPV VALLEY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN VT BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. EXPECT AREAS OF CLEARING TO
DEVELOP AFT 06Z WITH 1021MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO OUR CWA.
SOME PATCHY FOG/BR IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE DEEPER/PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS OF THE DACKS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLEARING...MAINLY 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO MID/UPPER
50S CPV.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NE CONUS
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES. STILL NOTICING ANOTHER 5H VORT IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IMPACTING NORTHERN VT BTWN 18Z-00Z SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
NEAR 12C...SUPPORT LOWER 70S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 80F WARMER VALLEYS
ON SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12C AND 14C...SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S
MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY... A HINT OF SUMMER NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE. THEREAFTER...STILL LOTS
OF QUESTIONS/DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT THAT
DELIVERS OUR SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE/WED.

REST OF DISCUSSION TAKEN FROM DAYSHIFT AS SAME ISSUES/QUESTIONS OF
PAST FEW DAYS.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON MONDAY BRINGING TEMPS IN THE 80S WITH 850
TEMPS RISING TO 14-15C WILL BE PUSHING EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE.

MODELS SIMILARLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY (1000-2000J/KG
CAPE) ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO THAT WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS SO TEMPS AGAIN IN THE MID 80S.

WHERE MODELS DIFFER IS ON HOW FAST THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
WITH GFS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW
UPPER TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH, SO NOT EXPECTING A DEEPENING
TROF LIKE WE`VE HAD LATELY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES, SO WENT WITH
A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING
AROUND ON WED. TEMPS A BIT COOLER ON WED.

SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THU-FRI AS FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY
WESTERLY WITH WEAK TROFFING SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (80/60).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL PROVIDE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THOUGH CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR. A FEW
POPUP SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS OF
KSLK/KPBG/KBTV BUT SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH NO CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO
LIGHT OVERNIGHT, TURNING TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR
KPBG WHERE DIRECTION WILL BE SOUTHEAST DUE TO LAKE BREEZE

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
18Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KALY 041748
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
148 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL COINCIDE
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO BRING CLOUDS AND A PERIOD OF
WET WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO RETURN
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1145 AM EDT...STEADIEST RAINFALL FOUND OVER THE CAPITAL
REGION THE RESULT OF DEVELOPING FGEN WHICH WILL THEN SLIP QUICKLY
SOUTH AS A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE DELMARVA
PENNISULA. RAINFALL RATES UP TO 0.4 INCHES HAVE BEEN ESTIMATED BY
RADAR.

THE PACKAGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD HOWEVER...IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD
THE HUDSON VALLEY...ALREADY TAPERING BACK TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS AND EVEN SCHOHARIE VALLEY. IT LOOKS
AS IF THE STEADIEST RAINFALL SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CAPITAL REGION
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND DAMP.

A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TO OUR NORTHWEST WAS ACTUALLY HELP MOVE THE
SHOWERS ALONG. THIS SHORT WAVE THOUGH KEEPS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPER AND SHOWALTER INDICES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE SO WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCES OF AFTERNOON THUNDER IN OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS
ONLY.

TEMPERATURES HAVE FLAT LINED DUE TO THE RAIN...STUCK IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S. AS THE STEADY RAIN PULLS OUT...WE SHOULD GET A LITTLE
BUMP IN TEMPERATURES SO LEFT THEM ALONE. STILL...THEY WILL FALL
MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH MOST PLACES ENDING UP
WITH ONLY MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.


IT LOOKS AS IF WE SHOULD REACH HIGHER THAN ON ALL-TIME LOW MAX
FOR INDEPENDENCE...64 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1932.

FOR TONIGHT...RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AS WE WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THE POPS/WX ACROSS THE
REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE TOO SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE FOR EVENING
ACTIVITIES AND NIGHT VIEW OF THE SKY IMPROVING. SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN MOIST WITH
A WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT/WINDS AND NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE OF AN
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. MOS NUMBERS ARE VERY CLOSE /IF
NOT IDENTICAL/ AS A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PER THE NCEP MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES /AND HUMIDITY/ AS H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID
TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE
70S AND LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO THE 80S /SUB 90F/ ON
MONDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY JULY SUNSHINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL AVERAGE MAINLY INTO THE
55-60F GENERAL RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE 00Z GFS IS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/GGEM REGARDING THE SPEED OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE GFS SUGGEST
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BOTH ON TUESDAY ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD/ALONG THE ACTUAL
BOUNDARY...WHILE THE GGEM/ECMWF ARE MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LOW
CHC POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HIGH CHC POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS LOOK FAIRLY WARM IN THE MID 80S FOR BOTH TUES/WED
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH MUGGY LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
VALLEY AREAS FOR BOTH MON AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY WINDING UP STALLING JUST SOUTH/EAST OF THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHC
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. IF THE FRONT IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE...IT COULD WIND UP JUST DRY EVERYWHERE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND LESS HUMID BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S FOR THURS/FRI...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COULD APPROACH THE REGION FOR SOME POINT NEXT
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1745Z...THE SHIELD OF RAIN WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL WILL LIKELY ALLOW MVFR
CIGS/DRIZZLE AND FOG(PERHAPS EVEN BRIEF IFR PERIODS) TO PERSIST A
LITTLE WHILE LONGER AT ALL THE TAF SITES.

WE ARE SEEING CLEARING WELL TO THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THIS
CLEARING WILL LIKELY REACH THE TAFS BEFORE END OF THE DAY.

THE CLEARING AT NIGHT...ALONG WITH LITTLE OR NO WIND AND RESIDUAL
WET GROUND...SHOULD YIELD TO SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. ONE MITIGATING
FACTOR FOG FORMATION WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
STILL SLATED TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME THIS
EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...PERHAPS STIRRING THE WIND UP A LITTLE.

FOR NOW...WENT IFR MIST/CIGS AT KPSF AND KGFL FROM 08Z-12Z...AND
ONLY MVFR MIST AT KALB/KPOU. WE WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

AFTER WE LOOSE THE FOG SUNDAY (AFTER 12Z)...IT LOOKS LIKE A MUCH
BETTER DAY FOR FLYING AS WE RETURN TO FULL VFR CONDITIONS...WITH
FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPING WITH LIGHT TO NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5KTS.
VISIBILITY WILL BE UNRESTRICTED.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING WET WEATHER PROBABILITIES THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WILL KEEP RH VALUES RATHER ELEVATED TO
BETWEEN 55-75 PERCENT. MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THEN GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF A PERIOD WITH WET CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WITH FORECAST QPF/S
RANGING FROM ONE-TENTH TO ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS /MAINLY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS/. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON FLOWS ON AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 041748
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
148 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL COINCIDE
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO BRING CLOUDS AND A PERIOD OF
WET WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO RETURN
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1145 AM EDT...STEADIEST RAINFALL FOUND OVER THE CAPITAL
REGION THE RESULT OF DEVELOPING FGEN WHICH WILL THEN SLIP QUICKLY
SOUTH AS A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE DELMARVA
PENNISULA. RAINFALL RATES UP TO 0.4 INCHES HAVE BEEN ESTIMATED BY
RADAR.

THE PACKAGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD HOWEVER...IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD
THE HUDSON VALLEY...ALREADY TAPERING BACK TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS AND EVEN SCHOHARIE VALLEY. IT LOOKS
AS IF THE STEADIEST RAINFALL SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CAPITAL REGION
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND DAMP.

A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TO OUR NORTHWEST WAS ACTUALLY HELP MOVE THE
SHOWERS ALONG. THIS SHORT WAVE THOUGH KEEPS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPER AND SHOWALTER INDICES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE SO WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCES OF AFTERNOON THUNDER IN OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS
ONLY.

TEMPERATURES HAVE FLAT LINED DUE TO THE RAIN...STUCK IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S. AS THE STEADY RAIN PULLS OUT...WE SHOULD GET A LITTLE
BUMP IN TEMPERATURES SO LEFT THEM ALONE. STILL...THEY WILL FALL
MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH MOST PLACES ENDING UP
WITH ONLY MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.


IT LOOKS AS IF WE SHOULD REACH HIGHER THAN ON ALL-TIME LOW MAX
FOR INDEPENDENCE...64 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1932.

FOR TONIGHT...RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AS WE WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THE POPS/WX ACROSS THE
REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE TOO SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE FOR EVENING
ACTIVITIES AND NIGHT VIEW OF THE SKY IMPROVING. SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN MOIST WITH
A WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT/WINDS AND NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE OF AN
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. MOS NUMBERS ARE VERY CLOSE /IF
NOT IDENTICAL/ AS A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PER THE NCEP MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES /AND HUMIDITY/ AS H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID
TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE
70S AND LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO THE 80S /SUB 90F/ ON
MONDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY JULY SUNSHINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL AVERAGE MAINLY INTO THE
55-60F GENERAL RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE 00Z GFS IS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/GGEM REGARDING THE SPEED OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE GFS SUGGEST
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BOTH ON TUESDAY ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD/ALONG THE ACTUAL
BOUNDARY...WHILE THE GGEM/ECMWF ARE MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LOW
CHC POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HIGH CHC POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS LOOK FAIRLY WARM IN THE MID 80S FOR BOTH TUES/WED
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH MUGGY LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
VALLEY AREAS FOR BOTH MON AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY WINDING UP STALLING JUST SOUTH/EAST OF THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHC
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. IF THE FRONT IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE...IT COULD WIND UP JUST DRY EVERYWHERE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND LESS HUMID BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S FOR THURS/FRI...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COULD APPROACH THE REGION FOR SOME POINT NEXT
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1745Z...THE SHIELD OF RAIN WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL WILL LIKELY ALLOW MVFR
CIGS/DRIZZLE AND FOG(PERHAPS EVEN BRIEF IFR PERIODS) TO PERSIST A
LITTLE WHILE LONGER AT ALL THE TAF SITES.

WE ARE SEEING CLEARING WELL TO THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THIS
CLEARING WILL LIKELY REACH THE TAFS BEFORE END OF THE DAY.

THE CLEARING AT NIGHT...ALONG WITH LITTLE OR NO WIND AND RESIDUAL
WET GROUND...SHOULD YIELD TO SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. ONE MITIGATING
FACTOR FOG FORMATION WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
STILL SLATED TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME THIS
EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...PERHAPS STIRRING THE WIND UP A LITTLE.

FOR NOW...WENT IFR MIST/CIGS AT KPSF AND KGFL FROM 08Z-12Z...AND
ONLY MVFR MIST AT KALB/KPOU. WE WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

AFTER WE LOOSE THE FOG SUNDAY (AFTER 12Z)...IT LOOKS LIKE A MUCH
BETTER DAY FOR FLYING AS WE RETURN TO FULL VFR CONDITIONS...WITH
FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPING WITH LIGHT TO NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5KTS.
VISIBILITY WILL BE UNRESTRICTED.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING WET WEATHER PROBABILITIES THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WILL KEEP RH VALUES RATHER ELEVATED TO
BETWEEN 55-75 PERCENT. MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THEN GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF A PERIOD WITH WET CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WITH FORECAST QPF/S
RANGING FROM ONE-TENTH TO ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS /MAINLY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS/. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON FLOWS ON AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 041748
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
148 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL COINCIDE
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO BRING CLOUDS AND A PERIOD OF
WET WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO RETURN
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1145 AM EDT...STEADIEST RAINFALL FOUND OVER THE CAPITAL
REGION THE RESULT OF DEVELOPING FGEN WHICH WILL THEN SLIP QUICKLY
SOUTH AS A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE DELMARVA
PENNISULA. RAINFALL RATES UP TO 0.4 INCHES HAVE BEEN ESTIMATED BY
RADAR.

THE PACKAGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD HOWEVER...IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD
THE HUDSON VALLEY...ALREADY TAPERING BACK TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS AND EVEN SCHOHARIE VALLEY. IT LOOKS
AS IF THE STEADIEST RAINFALL SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CAPITAL REGION
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND DAMP.

A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TO OUR NORTHWEST WAS ACTUALLY HELP MOVE THE
SHOWERS ALONG. THIS SHORT WAVE THOUGH KEEPS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPER AND SHOWALTER INDICES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE SO WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCES OF AFTERNOON THUNDER IN OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS
ONLY.

TEMPERATURES HAVE FLAT LINED DUE TO THE RAIN...STUCK IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S. AS THE STEADY RAIN PULLS OUT...WE SHOULD GET A LITTLE
BUMP IN TEMPERATURES SO LEFT THEM ALONE. STILL...THEY WILL FALL
MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH MOST PLACES ENDING UP
WITH ONLY MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.


IT LOOKS AS IF WE SHOULD REACH HIGHER THAN ON ALL-TIME LOW MAX
FOR INDEPENDENCE...64 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1932.

FOR TONIGHT...RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AS WE WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THE POPS/WX ACROSS THE
REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE TOO SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE FOR EVENING
ACTIVITIES AND NIGHT VIEW OF THE SKY IMPROVING. SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN MOIST WITH
A WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT/WINDS AND NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE OF AN
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. MOS NUMBERS ARE VERY CLOSE /IF
NOT IDENTICAL/ AS A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PER THE NCEP MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES /AND HUMIDITY/ AS H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID
TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE
70S AND LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO THE 80S /SUB 90F/ ON
MONDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY JULY SUNSHINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL AVERAGE MAINLY INTO THE
55-60F GENERAL RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE 00Z GFS IS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/GGEM REGARDING THE SPEED OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE GFS SUGGEST
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BOTH ON TUESDAY ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD/ALONG THE ACTUAL
BOUNDARY...WHILE THE GGEM/ECMWF ARE MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LOW
CHC POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HIGH CHC POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS LOOK FAIRLY WARM IN THE MID 80S FOR BOTH TUES/WED
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH MUGGY LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
VALLEY AREAS FOR BOTH MON AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY WINDING UP STALLING JUST SOUTH/EAST OF THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHC
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. IF THE FRONT IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE...IT COULD WIND UP JUST DRY EVERYWHERE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND LESS HUMID BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S FOR THURS/FRI...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COULD APPROACH THE REGION FOR SOME POINT NEXT
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1745Z...THE SHIELD OF RAIN WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL WILL LIKELY ALLOW MVFR
CIGS/DRIZZLE AND FOG(PERHAPS EVEN BRIEF IFR PERIODS) TO PERSIST A
LITTLE WHILE LONGER AT ALL THE TAF SITES.

WE ARE SEEING CLEARING WELL TO THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THIS
CLEARING WILL LIKELY REACH THE TAFS BEFORE END OF THE DAY.

THE CLEARING AT NIGHT...ALONG WITH LITTLE OR NO WIND AND RESIDUAL
WET GROUND...SHOULD YIELD TO SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. ONE MITIGATING
FACTOR FOG FORMATION WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
STILL SLATED TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME THIS
EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...PERHAPS STIRRING THE WIND UP A LITTLE.

FOR NOW...WENT IFR MIST/CIGS AT KPSF AND KGFL FROM 08Z-12Z...AND
ONLY MVFR MIST AT KALB/KPOU. WE WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

AFTER WE LOOSE THE FOG SUNDAY (AFTER 12Z)...IT LOOKS LIKE A MUCH
BETTER DAY FOR FLYING AS WE RETURN TO FULL VFR CONDITIONS...WITH
FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPING WITH LIGHT TO NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5KTS.
VISIBILITY WILL BE UNRESTRICTED.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING WET WEATHER PROBABILITIES THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WILL KEEP RH VALUES RATHER ELEVATED TO
BETWEEN 55-75 PERCENT. MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THEN GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF A PERIOD WITH WET CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WITH FORECAST QPF/S
RANGING FROM ONE-TENTH TO ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS /MAINLY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS/. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON FLOWS ON AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 041748
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
148 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL COINCIDE
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO BRING CLOUDS AND A PERIOD OF
WET WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO RETURN
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1145 AM EDT...STEADIEST RAINFALL FOUND OVER THE CAPITAL
REGION THE RESULT OF DEVELOPING FGEN WHICH WILL THEN SLIP QUICKLY
SOUTH AS A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE DELMARVA
PENNISULA. RAINFALL RATES UP TO 0.4 INCHES HAVE BEEN ESTIMATED BY
RADAR.

THE PACKAGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD HOWEVER...IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD
THE HUDSON VALLEY...ALREADY TAPERING BACK TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS AND EVEN SCHOHARIE VALLEY. IT LOOKS
AS IF THE STEADIEST RAINFALL SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CAPITAL REGION
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND DAMP.

A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TO OUR NORTHWEST WAS ACTUALLY HELP MOVE THE
SHOWERS ALONG. THIS SHORT WAVE THOUGH KEEPS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPER AND SHOWALTER INDICES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE SO WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCES OF AFTERNOON THUNDER IN OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS
ONLY.

TEMPERATURES HAVE FLAT LINED DUE TO THE RAIN...STUCK IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S. AS THE STEADY RAIN PULLS OUT...WE SHOULD GET A LITTLE
BUMP IN TEMPERATURES SO LEFT THEM ALONE. STILL...THEY WILL FALL
MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH MOST PLACES ENDING UP
WITH ONLY MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.


IT LOOKS AS IF WE SHOULD REACH HIGHER THAN ON ALL-TIME LOW MAX
FOR INDEPENDENCE...64 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1932.

FOR TONIGHT...RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AS WE WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THE POPS/WX ACROSS THE
REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE TOO SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE FOR EVENING
ACTIVITIES AND NIGHT VIEW OF THE SKY IMPROVING. SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN MOIST WITH
A WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT/WINDS AND NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE OF AN
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. MOS NUMBERS ARE VERY CLOSE /IF
NOT IDENTICAL/ AS A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PER THE NCEP MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES /AND HUMIDITY/ AS H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID
TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE
70S AND LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO THE 80S /SUB 90F/ ON
MONDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY JULY SUNSHINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL AVERAGE MAINLY INTO THE
55-60F GENERAL RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE 00Z GFS IS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/GGEM REGARDING THE SPEED OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE GFS SUGGEST
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BOTH ON TUESDAY ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD/ALONG THE ACTUAL
BOUNDARY...WHILE THE GGEM/ECMWF ARE MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LOW
CHC POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HIGH CHC POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS LOOK FAIRLY WARM IN THE MID 80S FOR BOTH TUES/WED
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH MUGGY LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
VALLEY AREAS FOR BOTH MON AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY WINDING UP STALLING JUST SOUTH/EAST OF THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHC
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. IF THE FRONT IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE...IT COULD WIND UP JUST DRY EVERYWHERE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND LESS HUMID BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S FOR THURS/FRI...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COULD APPROACH THE REGION FOR SOME POINT NEXT
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1745Z...THE SHIELD OF RAIN WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL WILL LIKELY ALLOW MVFR
CIGS/DRIZZLE AND FOG(PERHAPS EVEN BRIEF IFR PERIODS) TO PERSIST A
LITTLE WHILE LONGER AT ALL THE TAF SITES.

WE ARE SEEING CLEARING WELL TO THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THIS
CLEARING WILL LIKELY REACH THE TAFS BEFORE END OF THE DAY.

THE CLEARING AT NIGHT...ALONG WITH LITTLE OR NO WIND AND RESIDUAL
WET GROUND...SHOULD YIELD TO SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. ONE MITIGATING
FACTOR FOG FORMATION WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
STILL SLATED TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME THIS
EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...PERHAPS STIRRING THE WIND UP A LITTLE.

FOR NOW...WENT IFR MIST/CIGS AT KPSF AND KGFL FROM 08Z-12Z...AND
ONLY MVFR MIST AT KALB/KPOU. WE WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

AFTER WE LOOSE THE FOG SUNDAY (AFTER 12Z)...IT LOOKS LIKE A MUCH
BETTER DAY FOR FLYING AS WE RETURN TO FULL VFR CONDITIONS...WITH
FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPING WITH LIGHT TO NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5KTS.
VISIBILITY WILL BE UNRESTRICTED.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING WET WEATHER PROBABILITIES THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WILL KEEP RH VALUES RATHER ELEVATED TO
BETWEEN 55-75 PERCENT. MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THEN GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF A PERIOD WITH WET CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WITH FORECAST QPF/S
RANGING FROM ONE-TENTH TO ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS /MAINLY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS/. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON FLOWS ON AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM



000
FXUS61 KBTV 041737
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
137 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
INTO NORTHERN VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
OVERALL...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN
NATURE. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 70S TODAY WITH MORE
CLOUDS...BUT WILL BE WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH EXPECTED SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1039 AM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST FROM NEW YORK STATE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF VERMONT AT THIS TIME. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL BE FROM RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES
SOUTHWARD. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
VERMONT...AND HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES
TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 706 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPDATED FCST TO
INCREASE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT ZONES TO 70 TO 80%
BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND HRRR DATA. RADAR SHOWS A RATHER LARGE
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN MOVING
TOWARD RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THIS RAIN WILL
WEAKEN SOME AS IT ENCOUNTERS A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER OUR CWA...BUT
GIVEN FLOW ALOFT...JET ORIENTATION AND MAGITUDE OF 5H
VORT...THINKING MEASURABLE PRECIP IS VERY LIKELY ACROSS RUTLAND
AND WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THIS RAIN WILL
SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER INTERESTING
AREA TO WATCH IS SLV/WESTERN DACKS...AS LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH EVEN A LIGHTNING STRIKE
OCCURRING IN THE PAST COUPLE OF MINUTES. HAVE MENTION CHC POPS BUT
WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF FCST ATTM...DUE TO THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY OVER OUR CWA. OTHER ADJUSTMENT IS TO LOWER TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO MORE CLOUDS.

FCST CHALLENGE THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIP
AND AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS. 00Z ALBANY SOUNDING SHOWS A
DEEP DRY LAYER FROM 850 TO 300MB WITH PW VALUE OF ONLY 0.49".
HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE CONTS TO STREAM QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE NE CONUS...AHEAD OF S/W
TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG 25H JET. IN ADDITION...TO
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO OUR CWA...WATER VAPOR SHOWS EMBEDDED 5H
VORT IN THE FAST PROGRESSIVELY FLW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL OHIO. USING
THE RADAR AND COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGS OFF THE HRRR THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL PA INTO NY WILL
ADVECT NE INTO OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE WEAKENING DUE TO
DRY AIR ALOFT. BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE QPF WILL BE SOUTH OF A
SLK TO BTV TO MPV LINE THIS MORNING...WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS
GENERALLY < 0.10 ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES. WILL INCREASE
POPS AND MENTION LIKELY (60%) ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TWO COUNTIES AND
TAPER TO NIL NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MEANWHILE...THIS
AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. GFS/NAM AND LOCAL
MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF
THUNDER DEVELOPING OVER THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS AFTER 18Z.
INTERESTING THE LOCAL MODELS SHOW A WEAK LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
ON EDGE OF CLOUD DECK...WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND
800 J/KG. THINKING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SLV/WESTERN DACKS BTWN 18Z- 21Z...AND MOVE EASTWARD TWD THE CPV
VALLEY AROUND 00Z...AND THRU CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY BY 03Z. HAVE
MENTIONED HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS TO COVER THIS SCENARIO LATER
TODAY...WITH QPF GENERALLY BTWN A TRACE TO 0.25" IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH A VARIETY OF CLOUDS LEVELS
EXPECTED...WHICH WILL HOLD VALUES MAINLY IN THE 70S. A FEW HIGHER
VALUES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SLV WHERE MORE SUN IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...NORTHERN STREAM 5H VORT WILL SWING
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WHILE RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE QUICKLY SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE BY 06Z. ANY
SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN OR BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...INCLUDING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. GIVEN TIMING
OF SHOWERS...SOME EVENING ACTIVITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE HOLIDAY
MAYBE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CPV VALLEY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN VT BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. EXPECT AREAS OF CLEARING TO
DEVELOP AFT 06Z WITH 1021MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO OUR CWA.
SOME PATCHY FOG/BR IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE DEEPER/PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS OF THE DACKS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLEARING...MAINLY 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO MID/UPPER
50S CPV.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NE CONUS
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES. STILL NOTICING ANOTHER 5H VORT IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IMPACTING NORTHERN VT BTWN 18Z-00Z SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
NEAR 12C....SUPPORT LOWER 70S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 80F WARMER VALLEYS ON
SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12C AND 14C...SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S
MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY... A HINT OF SUMMER NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE. THEREAFTER...STILL LOTS
OF QUESTIONS/DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT THAT
DELIVERS OUR SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE/WED.

REST OF DISCUSSION TAKEN FROM DAYSHIFT AS SAME ISSUES/QUESTIONS OF
PAST FEW DAYS.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON MONDAY BRINGING TEMPS IN THE 80S WITH 850
TEMPS RISING TO 14-15C WILL BE PUSHING EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE.

MODELS SIMILARLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY (1000-2000J/KG
CAPE) ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO THAT WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS SO TEMPS AGAIN IN THE MID 80S.

WHERE MODELS DIFFER IS ON HOW FAST THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
WITH GFS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW
UPPER TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH, SO NOT EXPECTING A DEEPENING
TROF LIKE WE`VE HAD LATELY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES, SO WENT WITH
A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING
AROUND ON WED. TEMPS A BIT COOLER ON WED.

SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THU-FRI AS FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY
WESTERLY WITH WEAK TROFFING SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (80/60).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL PROVIDE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THOUGH CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR. A FEW
POPUP SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS OF
KSLK/KPBG/KBTV BUT SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH NO CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO
LIGHT OVERNIGHT, TURNING TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR
KPBG WHERE DIRECTION WILL BE SOUTHEAST DUE TO LAKE BREEZE

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
18Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 041737
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
137 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
INTO NORTHERN VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
OVERALL...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN
NATURE. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 70S TODAY WITH MORE
CLOUDS...BUT WILL BE WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH EXPECTED SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1039 AM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST FROM NEW YORK STATE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF VERMONT AT THIS TIME. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL BE FROM RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES
SOUTHWARD. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
VERMONT...AND HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES
TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 706 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPDATED FCST TO
INCREASE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT ZONES TO 70 TO 80%
BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND HRRR DATA. RADAR SHOWS A RATHER LARGE
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN MOVING
TOWARD RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THIS RAIN WILL
WEAKEN SOME AS IT ENCOUNTERS A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER OUR CWA...BUT
GIVEN FLOW ALOFT...JET ORIENTATION AND MAGITUDE OF 5H
VORT...THINKING MEASURABLE PRECIP IS VERY LIKELY ACROSS RUTLAND
AND WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THIS RAIN WILL
SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER INTERESTING
AREA TO WATCH IS SLV/WESTERN DACKS...AS LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH EVEN A LIGHTNING STRIKE
OCCURRING IN THE PAST COUPLE OF MINUTES. HAVE MENTION CHC POPS BUT
WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF FCST ATTM...DUE TO THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY OVER OUR CWA. OTHER ADJUSTMENT IS TO LOWER TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO MORE CLOUDS.

FCST CHALLENGE THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIP
AND AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS. 00Z ALBANY SOUNDING SHOWS A
DEEP DRY LAYER FROM 850 TO 300MB WITH PW VALUE OF ONLY 0.49".
HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE CONTS TO STREAM QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE NE CONUS...AHEAD OF S/W
TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG 25H JET. IN ADDITION...TO
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO OUR CWA...WATER VAPOR SHOWS EMBEDDED 5H
VORT IN THE FAST PROGRESSIVELY FLW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL OHIO. USING
THE RADAR AND COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGS OFF THE HRRR THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL PA INTO NY WILL
ADVECT NE INTO OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE WEAKENING DUE TO
DRY AIR ALOFT. BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE QPF WILL BE SOUTH OF A
SLK TO BTV TO MPV LINE THIS MORNING...WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS
GENERALLY < 0.10 ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES. WILL INCREASE
POPS AND MENTION LIKELY (60%) ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TWO COUNTIES AND
TAPER TO NIL NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MEANWHILE...THIS
AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. GFS/NAM AND LOCAL
MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF
THUNDER DEVELOPING OVER THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS AFTER 18Z.
INTERESTING THE LOCAL MODELS SHOW A WEAK LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
ON EDGE OF CLOUD DECK...WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND
800 J/KG. THINKING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SLV/WESTERN DACKS BTWN 18Z- 21Z...AND MOVE EASTWARD TWD THE CPV
VALLEY AROUND 00Z...AND THRU CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY BY 03Z. HAVE
MENTIONED HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS TO COVER THIS SCENARIO LATER
TODAY...WITH QPF GENERALLY BTWN A TRACE TO 0.25" IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH A VARIETY OF CLOUDS LEVELS
EXPECTED...WHICH WILL HOLD VALUES MAINLY IN THE 70S. A FEW HIGHER
VALUES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SLV WHERE MORE SUN IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...NORTHERN STREAM 5H VORT WILL SWING
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WHILE RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE QUICKLY SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE BY 06Z. ANY
SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN OR BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...INCLUDING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. GIVEN TIMING
OF SHOWERS...SOME EVENING ACTIVITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE HOLIDAY
MAYBE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CPV VALLEY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN VT BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. EXPECT AREAS OF CLEARING TO
DEVELOP AFT 06Z WITH 1021MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO OUR CWA.
SOME PATCHY FOG/BR IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE DEEPER/PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS OF THE DACKS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLEARING...MAINLY 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO MID/UPPER
50S CPV.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NE CONUS
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES. STILL NOTICING ANOTHER 5H VORT IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IMPACTING NORTHERN VT BTWN 18Z-00Z SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
NEAR 12C....SUPPORT LOWER 70S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 80F WARMER VALLEYS ON
SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12C AND 14C...SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S
MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY... A HINT OF SUMMER NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE. THEREAFTER...STILL LOTS
OF QUESTIONS/DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT THAT
DELIVERS OUR SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE/WED.

REST OF DISCUSSION TAKEN FROM DAYSHIFT AS SAME ISSUES/QUESTIONS OF
PAST FEW DAYS.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON MONDAY BRINGING TEMPS IN THE 80S WITH 850
TEMPS RISING TO 14-15C WILL BE PUSHING EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE.

MODELS SIMILARLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY (1000-2000J/KG
CAPE) ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO THAT WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS SO TEMPS AGAIN IN THE MID 80S.

WHERE MODELS DIFFER IS ON HOW FAST THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
WITH GFS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW
UPPER TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH, SO NOT EXPECTING A DEEPENING
TROF LIKE WE`VE HAD LATELY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES, SO WENT WITH
A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING
AROUND ON WED. TEMPS A BIT COOLER ON WED.

SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THU-FRI AS FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY
WESTERLY WITH WEAK TROFFING SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (80/60).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL PROVIDE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THOUGH CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR. A FEW
POPUP SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS OF
KSLK/KPBG/KBTV BUT SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH NO CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO
LIGHT OVERNIGHT, TURNING TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR
KPBG WHERE DIRECTION WILL BE SOUTHEAST DUE TO LAKE BREEZE

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
18Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 041737
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
137 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
INTO NORTHERN VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
OVERALL...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN
NATURE. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 70S TODAY WITH MORE
CLOUDS...BUT WILL BE WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH EXPECTED SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1039 AM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST FROM NEW YORK STATE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF VERMONT AT THIS TIME. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL BE FROM RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES
SOUTHWARD. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
VERMONT...AND HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES
TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 706 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPDATED FCST TO
INCREASE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT ZONES TO 70 TO 80%
BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND HRRR DATA. RADAR SHOWS A RATHER LARGE
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN MOVING
TOWARD RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THIS RAIN WILL
WEAKEN SOME AS IT ENCOUNTERS A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER OUR CWA...BUT
GIVEN FLOW ALOFT...JET ORIENTATION AND MAGITUDE OF 5H
VORT...THINKING MEASURABLE PRECIP IS VERY LIKELY ACROSS RUTLAND
AND WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THIS RAIN WILL
SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER INTERESTING
AREA TO WATCH IS SLV/WESTERN DACKS...AS LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH EVEN A LIGHTNING STRIKE
OCCURRING IN THE PAST COUPLE OF MINUTES. HAVE MENTION CHC POPS BUT
WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF FCST ATTM...DUE TO THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY OVER OUR CWA. OTHER ADJUSTMENT IS TO LOWER TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO MORE CLOUDS.

FCST CHALLENGE THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIP
AND AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS. 00Z ALBANY SOUNDING SHOWS A
DEEP DRY LAYER FROM 850 TO 300MB WITH PW VALUE OF ONLY 0.49".
HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE CONTS TO STREAM QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE NE CONUS...AHEAD OF S/W
TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG 25H JET. IN ADDITION...TO
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO OUR CWA...WATER VAPOR SHOWS EMBEDDED 5H
VORT IN THE FAST PROGRESSIVELY FLW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL OHIO. USING
THE RADAR AND COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGS OFF THE HRRR THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL PA INTO NY WILL
ADVECT NE INTO OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE WEAKENING DUE TO
DRY AIR ALOFT. BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE QPF WILL BE SOUTH OF A
SLK TO BTV TO MPV LINE THIS MORNING...WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS
GENERALLY < 0.10 ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES. WILL INCREASE
POPS AND MENTION LIKELY (60%) ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TWO COUNTIES AND
TAPER TO NIL NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MEANWHILE...THIS
AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. GFS/NAM AND LOCAL
MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF
THUNDER DEVELOPING OVER THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS AFTER 18Z.
INTERESTING THE LOCAL MODELS SHOW A WEAK LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
ON EDGE OF CLOUD DECK...WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND
800 J/KG. THINKING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SLV/WESTERN DACKS BTWN 18Z- 21Z...AND MOVE EASTWARD TWD THE CPV
VALLEY AROUND 00Z...AND THRU CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY BY 03Z. HAVE
MENTIONED HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS TO COVER THIS SCENARIO LATER
TODAY...WITH QPF GENERALLY BTWN A TRACE TO 0.25" IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH A VARIETY OF CLOUDS LEVELS
EXPECTED...WHICH WILL HOLD VALUES MAINLY IN THE 70S. A FEW HIGHER
VALUES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SLV WHERE MORE SUN IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...NORTHERN STREAM 5H VORT WILL SWING
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WHILE RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE QUICKLY SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE BY 06Z. ANY
SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN OR BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...INCLUDING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. GIVEN TIMING
OF SHOWERS...SOME EVENING ACTIVITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE HOLIDAY
MAYBE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CPV VALLEY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN VT BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. EXPECT AREAS OF CLEARING TO
DEVELOP AFT 06Z WITH 1021MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO OUR CWA.
SOME PATCHY FOG/BR IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE DEEPER/PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS OF THE DACKS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLEARING...MAINLY 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO MID/UPPER
50S CPV.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NE CONUS
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES. STILL NOTICING ANOTHER 5H VORT IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IMPACTING NORTHERN VT BTWN 18Z-00Z SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
NEAR 12C....SUPPORT LOWER 70S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 80F WARMER VALLEYS ON
SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12C AND 14C...SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S
MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY... A HINT OF SUMMER NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE. THEREAFTER...STILL LOTS
OF QUESTIONS/DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT THAT
DELIVERS OUR SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE/WED.

REST OF DISCUSSION TAKEN FROM DAYSHIFT AS SAME ISSUES/QUESTIONS OF
PAST FEW DAYS.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON MONDAY BRINGING TEMPS IN THE 80S WITH 850
TEMPS RISING TO 14-15C WILL BE PUSHING EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE.

MODELS SIMILARLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY (1000-2000J/KG
CAPE) ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO THAT WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS SO TEMPS AGAIN IN THE MID 80S.

WHERE MODELS DIFFER IS ON HOW FAST THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
WITH GFS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW
UPPER TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH, SO NOT EXPECTING A DEEPENING
TROF LIKE WE`VE HAD LATELY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES, SO WENT WITH
A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING
AROUND ON WED. TEMPS A BIT COOLER ON WED.

SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THU-FRI AS FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY
WESTERLY WITH WEAK TROFFING SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (80/60).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL PROVIDE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THOUGH CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR. A FEW
POPUP SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS OF
KSLK/KPBG/KBTV BUT SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH NO CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO
LIGHT OVERNIGHT, TURNING TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR
KPBG WHERE DIRECTION WILL BE SOUTHEAST DUE TO LAKE BREEZE

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
18Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 041737
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
137 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
INTO NORTHERN VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
OVERALL...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN
NATURE. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 70S TODAY WITH MORE
CLOUDS...BUT WILL BE WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH EXPECTED SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1039 AM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST FROM NEW YORK STATE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF VERMONT AT THIS TIME. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL BE FROM RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES
SOUTHWARD. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
VERMONT...AND HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES
TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 706 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPDATED FCST TO
INCREASE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT ZONES TO 70 TO 80%
BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND HRRR DATA. RADAR SHOWS A RATHER LARGE
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN MOVING
TOWARD RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THIS RAIN WILL
WEAKEN SOME AS IT ENCOUNTERS A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER OUR CWA...BUT
GIVEN FLOW ALOFT...JET ORIENTATION AND MAGITUDE OF 5H
VORT...THINKING MEASURABLE PRECIP IS VERY LIKELY ACROSS RUTLAND
AND WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THIS RAIN WILL
SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER INTERESTING
AREA TO WATCH IS SLV/WESTERN DACKS...AS LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH EVEN A LIGHTNING STRIKE
OCCURRING IN THE PAST COUPLE OF MINUTES. HAVE MENTION CHC POPS BUT
WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF FCST ATTM...DUE TO THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY OVER OUR CWA. OTHER ADJUSTMENT IS TO LOWER TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO MORE CLOUDS.

FCST CHALLENGE THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIP
AND AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS. 00Z ALBANY SOUNDING SHOWS A
DEEP DRY LAYER FROM 850 TO 300MB WITH PW VALUE OF ONLY 0.49".
HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE CONTS TO STREAM QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE NE CONUS...AHEAD OF S/W
TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG 25H JET. IN ADDITION...TO
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO OUR CWA...WATER VAPOR SHOWS EMBEDDED 5H
VORT IN THE FAST PROGRESSIVELY FLW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL OHIO. USING
THE RADAR AND COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGS OFF THE HRRR THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL PA INTO NY WILL
ADVECT NE INTO OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE WEAKENING DUE TO
DRY AIR ALOFT. BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE QPF WILL BE SOUTH OF A
SLK TO BTV TO MPV LINE THIS MORNING...WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS
GENERALLY < 0.10 ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES. WILL INCREASE
POPS AND MENTION LIKELY (60%) ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TWO COUNTIES AND
TAPER TO NIL NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MEANWHILE...THIS
AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. GFS/NAM AND LOCAL
MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF
THUNDER DEVELOPING OVER THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS AFTER 18Z.
INTERESTING THE LOCAL MODELS SHOW A WEAK LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
ON EDGE OF CLOUD DECK...WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND
800 J/KG. THINKING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SLV/WESTERN DACKS BTWN 18Z- 21Z...AND MOVE EASTWARD TWD THE CPV
VALLEY AROUND 00Z...AND THRU CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY BY 03Z. HAVE
MENTIONED HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS TO COVER THIS SCENARIO LATER
TODAY...WITH QPF GENERALLY BTWN A TRACE TO 0.25" IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH A VARIETY OF CLOUDS LEVELS
EXPECTED...WHICH WILL HOLD VALUES MAINLY IN THE 70S. A FEW HIGHER
VALUES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SLV WHERE MORE SUN IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...NORTHERN STREAM 5H VORT WILL SWING
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WHILE RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE QUICKLY SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE BY 06Z. ANY
SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN OR BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...INCLUDING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. GIVEN TIMING
OF SHOWERS...SOME EVENING ACTIVITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE HOLIDAY
MAYBE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CPV VALLEY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN VT BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. EXPECT AREAS OF CLEARING TO
DEVELOP AFT 06Z WITH 1021MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO OUR CWA.
SOME PATCHY FOG/BR IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE DEEPER/PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS OF THE DACKS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLEARING...MAINLY 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO MID/UPPER
50S CPV.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NE CONUS
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES. STILL NOTICING ANOTHER 5H VORT IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IMPACTING NORTHERN VT BTWN 18Z-00Z SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
NEAR 12C....SUPPORT LOWER 70S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 80F WARMER VALLEYS ON
SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12C AND 14C...SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S
MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY... A HINT OF SUMMER NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE. THEREAFTER...STILL LOTS
OF QUESTIONS/DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT THAT
DELIVERS OUR SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE/WED.

REST OF DISCUSSION TAKEN FROM DAYSHIFT AS SAME ISSUES/QUESTIONS OF
PAST FEW DAYS.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON MONDAY BRINGING TEMPS IN THE 80S WITH 850
TEMPS RISING TO 14-15C WILL BE PUSHING EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE.

MODELS SIMILARLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY (1000-2000J/KG
CAPE) ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO THAT WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS SO TEMPS AGAIN IN THE MID 80S.

WHERE MODELS DIFFER IS ON HOW FAST THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
WITH GFS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW
UPPER TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH, SO NOT EXPECTING A DEEPENING
TROF LIKE WE`VE HAD LATELY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES, SO WENT WITH
A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING
AROUND ON WED. TEMPS A BIT COOLER ON WED.

SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THU-FRI AS FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY
WESTERLY WITH WEAK TROFFING SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (80/60).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL PROVIDE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THOUGH CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR. A FEW
POPUP SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS OF
KSLK/KPBG/KBTV BUT SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT WITH NO CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-10KTS THIS AFTERNOON GO
LIGHT OVERNIGHT, TURNING TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR
KPBG WHERE DIRECTION WILL BE SOUTHEAST DUE TO LAKE BREEZE

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
18Z SUN - 12Z TUE: VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z MON.
12Z TUE - 00Z THU: VFR W/SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE.
00Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KALY 041555
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1155 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL COINCIDE
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO BRING CLOUDS AND A PERIOD OF
WET WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO RETURN
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1145 AM EDT...STEADIEST RAINFALL FOUND OVER THE CAPITAL
REGION THE RESULT OF DEVELOPING FGEN WHICH WILL THEN SLIP QUICKLY
SOUTH AS A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE DELMARVA
PENNISULA. RAINFALL RATES UP TO 0.4 INCHES HAVE BEEN ESTIMATED BY
RADAR.

THE BACKEDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD HOWEVER...IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD
THE HUDSON VALLEY...ALREADY TAPERING BACK TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS AND EVEN SCHOHARIE VALLEY. IT LOOKS
AS IF THE STEADIEST RAINFALL SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CAPITAL REGION
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND DAMP.

A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TO OUR NORTHWEST WAS ACTUALLY HELP MOVE THE
SHOWERS ALONG. THIS SHORT WAVE THOUGH KEEPS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPER AND SHOWALTER INDICES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE SO WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCES OF AFTERNOON THUNDER IN OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS
ONLY.

TEMPERATURES HAVE FLAT LINED DUE TO THE RAIN...STUCK IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S. AS THE STEADY RAIN PULLS OUT...WE SHOULD GET A LITTLE
BUMP IN TEMPERATURES SO LEFT THEM ALONE. STILL...THEY WILL FALL
MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH MOST PLACES ENDING UP
WITH ONLY MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.


IT LOOKS AS IF WE SHOULD REACH HIGHER THAN ON ALL-TIME LOW MAX
FOR INDEPENDENCE...64 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1932.

FOR TONIGHT...RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AS WE WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THE POPS/WX ACROSS THE
REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE TOO SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE FOR EVENING
ACTIVITIES AND NIGHT VIEW OF THE SKY IMPROVING. SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN MOIST WITH
A WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT/WINDS AND NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE OF AN
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. MOS NUMBERS ARE VERY CLOSE /IF
NOT IDENTICAL/ AS A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PER THE NCEP MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES /AND HUMIDITY/ AS H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID
TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE
70S AND LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO THE 80S /SUB 90F/ ON
MONDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY JULY SUNSHINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL AVERAGE MAINLY INTO THE
55-60F GENERAL RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE 00Z GFS IS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/GGEM REGARDING THE SPEED OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE GFS SUGGEST
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BOTH ON TUESDAY ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD/ALONG THE ACTUAL
BOUNDARY...WHILE THE GGEM/ECMWF ARE MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LOW
CHC POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HIGH CHC POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS LOOK FAIRLY WARM IN THE MID 80S FOR BOTH TUES/WED
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH MUGGY LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
VALLEY AREAS FOR BOTH MON AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY WINDING UP STALLING JUST SOUTH/EAST OF THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHC
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. IF THE FRONT IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE...IT COULD WIND UP JUST DRY EVERYWHERE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND LESS HUMID BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S FOR THURS/FRI...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COULD APPROACH THE REGION FOR SOME POINT NEXT
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR DURING THE MORNING DUES
TO LOWERING CIGS AND A PERIOD OF RAIN. AS OF 1245Z...KPSF HAS
ALREADY GONE TO MVFR CIGS.

THESE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO ARRIVE SHORTLY.
INITIALLY...THIS RAINFALL WILL BE FALLING OUT OF A MID LEVEL
DECK...AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH RATHER LIGHT
RAINFALL. EVENTUALLY...THE RAINFALL WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY AND
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR ALL SITES FOR THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN
THROUGH THE MID AFTN HOURS. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME IFR
CONDITIONS BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE TIMING/EXTENT OF THIS
TO OCCUR IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE SURFACE WIND WILL VARIABLE
TO SOUTH WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY ABOUT 20Z-22Z...ALTHOUGH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP SOME LOWER CIGS AROUND THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE CLOUDS MAY START TO DECREASE FOR LATE THIS
EVENING...AND IT IS A GOOD BET SOME BR MAY DEVELOP FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ESP KPSF/KGFL. THERE COULD EVEN BE
SOME IFR CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD AS WELL. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM
FOR TONIGHT AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING WET WEATHER PROBABILITIES THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WILL KEEP RH VALUES RATHER ELEVATED TO
BETWEEN 55-75 PERCENT. MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THEN GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF A PERIOD WITH WET CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WITH FORECAST QPF/S
RANGING FROM ONE-TENTH TO ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS /MAINLY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS/. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON FLOWS ON AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 041555
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1155 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL COINCIDE
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO BRING CLOUDS AND A PERIOD OF
WET WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO RETURN
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1145 AM EDT...STEADIEST RAINFALL FOUND OVER THE CAPITAL
REGION THE RESULT OF DEVELOPING FGEN WHICH WILL THEN SLIP QUICKLY
SOUTH AS A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE DELMARVA
PENNISULA. RAINFALL RATES UP TO 0.4 INCHES HAVE BEEN ESTIMATED BY
RADAR.

THE BACKEDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD HOWEVER...IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD
THE HUDSON VALLEY...ALREADY TAPERING BACK TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS AND EVEN SCHOHARIE VALLEY. IT LOOKS
AS IF THE STEADIEST RAINFALL SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CAPITAL REGION
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND DAMP.

A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TO OUR NORTHWEST WAS ACTUALLY HELP MOVE THE
SHOWERS ALONG. THIS SHORT WAVE THOUGH KEEPS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPER AND SHOWALTER INDICES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE SO WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCES OF AFTERNOON THUNDER IN OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS
ONLY.

TEMPERATURES HAVE FLAT LINED DUE TO THE RAIN...STUCK IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S. AS THE STEADY RAIN PULLS OUT...WE SHOULD GET A LITTLE
BUMP IN TEMPERATURES SO LEFT THEM ALONE. STILL...THEY WILL FALL
MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH MOST PLACES ENDING UP
WITH ONLY MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.


IT LOOKS AS IF WE SHOULD REACH HIGHER THAN ON ALL-TIME LOW MAX
FOR INDEPENDENCE...64 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1932.

FOR TONIGHT...RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AS WE WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THE POPS/WX ACROSS THE
REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE TOO SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE FOR EVENING
ACTIVITIES AND NIGHT VIEW OF THE SKY IMPROVING. SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN MOIST WITH
A WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT/WINDS AND NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE OF AN
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. MOS NUMBERS ARE VERY CLOSE /IF
NOT IDENTICAL/ AS A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PER THE NCEP MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES /AND HUMIDITY/ AS H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID
TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE
70S AND LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO THE 80S /SUB 90F/ ON
MONDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY JULY SUNSHINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL AVERAGE MAINLY INTO THE
55-60F GENERAL RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE 00Z GFS IS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/GGEM REGARDING THE SPEED OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE GFS SUGGEST
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BOTH ON TUESDAY ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD/ALONG THE ACTUAL
BOUNDARY...WHILE THE GGEM/ECMWF ARE MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LOW
CHC POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HIGH CHC POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS LOOK FAIRLY WARM IN THE MID 80S FOR BOTH TUES/WED
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH MUGGY LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
VALLEY AREAS FOR BOTH MON AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY WINDING UP STALLING JUST SOUTH/EAST OF THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHC
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. IF THE FRONT IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE...IT COULD WIND UP JUST DRY EVERYWHERE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND LESS HUMID BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S FOR THURS/FRI...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COULD APPROACH THE REGION FOR SOME POINT NEXT
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR DURING THE MORNING DUES
TO LOWERING CIGS AND A PERIOD OF RAIN. AS OF 1245Z...KPSF HAS
ALREADY GONE TO MVFR CIGS.

THESE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO ARRIVE SHORTLY.
INITIALLY...THIS RAINFALL WILL BE FALLING OUT OF A MID LEVEL
DECK...AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH RATHER LIGHT
RAINFALL. EVENTUALLY...THE RAINFALL WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY AND
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR ALL SITES FOR THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN
THROUGH THE MID AFTN HOURS. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME IFR
CONDITIONS BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE TIMING/EXTENT OF THIS
TO OCCUR IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE SURFACE WIND WILL VARIABLE
TO SOUTH WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY ABOUT 20Z-22Z...ALTHOUGH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP SOME LOWER CIGS AROUND THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE CLOUDS MAY START TO DECREASE FOR LATE THIS
EVENING...AND IT IS A GOOD BET SOME BR MAY DEVELOP FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ESP KPSF/KGFL. THERE COULD EVEN BE
SOME IFR CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD AS WELL. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM
FOR TONIGHT AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING WET WEATHER PROBABILITIES THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WILL KEEP RH VALUES RATHER ELEVATED TO
BETWEEN 55-75 PERCENT. MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THEN GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF A PERIOD WITH WET CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WITH FORECAST QPF/S
RANGING FROM ONE-TENTH TO ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS /MAINLY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS/. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON FLOWS ON AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 041555
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1155 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL COINCIDE
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO BRING CLOUDS AND A PERIOD OF
WET WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO RETURN
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1145 AM EDT...STEADIEST RAINFALL FOUND OVER THE CAPITAL
REGION THE RESULT OF DEVELOPING FGEN WHICH WILL THEN SLIP QUICKLY
SOUTH AS A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE DELMARVA
PENNISULA. RAINFALL RATES UP TO 0.4 INCHES HAVE BEEN ESTIMATED BY
RADAR.

THE BACKEDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD HOWEVER...IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD
THE HUDSON VALLEY...ALREADY TAPERING BACK TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS AND EVEN SCHOHARIE VALLEY. IT LOOKS
AS IF THE STEADIEST RAINFALL SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CAPITAL REGION
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND DAMP.

A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TO OUR NORTHWEST WAS ACTUALLY HELP MOVE THE
SHOWERS ALONG. THIS SHORT WAVE THOUGH KEEPS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPER AND SHOWALTER INDICES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE SO WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCES OF AFTERNOON THUNDER IN OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS
ONLY.

TEMPERATURES HAVE FLAT LINED DUE TO THE RAIN...STUCK IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S. AS THE STEADY RAIN PULLS OUT...WE SHOULD GET A LITTLE
BUMP IN TEMPERATURES SO LEFT THEM ALONE. STILL...THEY WILL FALL
MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH MOST PLACES ENDING UP
WITH ONLY MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.


IT LOOKS AS IF WE SHOULD REACH HIGHER THAN ON ALL-TIME LOW MAX
FOR INDEPENDENCE...64 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1932.

FOR TONIGHT...RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AS WE WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THE POPS/WX ACROSS THE
REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE TOO SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE FOR EVENING
ACTIVITIES AND NIGHT VIEW OF THE SKY IMPROVING. SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN MOIST WITH
A WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT/WINDS AND NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE OF AN
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. MOS NUMBERS ARE VERY CLOSE /IF
NOT IDENTICAL/ AS A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PER THE NCEP MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES /AND HUMIDITY/ AS H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID
TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE
70S AND LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO THE 80S /SUB 90F/ ON
MONDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY JULY SUNSHINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL AVERAGE MAINLY INTO THE
55-60F GENERAL RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE 00Z GFS IS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/GGEM REGARDING THE SPEED OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE GFS SUGGEST
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BOTH ON TUESDAY ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD/ALONG THE ACTUAL
BOUNDARY...WHILE THE GGEM/ECMWF ARE MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LOW
CHC POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HIGH CHC POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS LOOK FAIRLY WARM IN THE MID 80S FOR BOTH TUES/WED
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH MUGGY LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
VALLEY AREAS FOR BOTH MON AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY WINDING UP STALLING JUST SOUTH/EAST OF THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHC
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. IF THE FRONT IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE...IT COULD WIND UP JUST DRY EVERYWHERE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND LESS HUMID BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S FOR THURS/FRI...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COULD APPROACH THE REGION FOR SOME POINT NEXT
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR DURING THE MORNING DUES
TO LOWERING CIGS AND A PERIOD OF RAIN. AS OF 1245Z...KPSF HAS
ALREADY GONE TO MVFR CIGS.

THESE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO ARRIVE SHORTLY.
INITIALLY...THIS RAINFALL WILL BE FALLING OUT OF A MID LEVEL
DECK...AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH RATHER LIGHT
RAINFALL. EVENTUALLY...THE RAINFALL WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY AND
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR ALL SITES FOR THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN
THROUGH THE MID AFTN HOURS. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME IFR
CONDITIONS BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE TIMING/EXTENT OF THIS
TO OCCUR IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE SURFACE WIND WILL VARIABLE
TO SOUTH WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY ABOUT 20Z-22Z...ALTHOUGH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP SOME LOWER CIGS AROUND THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE CLOUDS MAY START TO DECREASE FOR LATE THIS
EVENING...AND IT IS A GOOD BET SOME BR MAY DEVELOP FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ESP KPSF/KGFL. THERE COULD EVEN BE
SOME IFR CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD AS WELL. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM
FOR TONIGHT AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING WET WEATHER PROBABILITIES THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WILL KEEP RH VALUES RATHER ELEVATED TO
BETWEEN 55-75 PERCENT. MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THEN GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF A PERIOD WITH WET CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WITH FORECAST QPF/S
RANGING FROM ONE-TENTH TO ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS /MAINLY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS/. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON FLOWS ON AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 041555
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1155 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL COINCIDE
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO BRING CLOUDS AND A PERIOD OF
WET WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO RETURN
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1145 AM EDT...STEADIEST RAINFALL FOUND OVER THE CAPITAL
REGION THE RESULT OF DEVELOPING FGEN WHICH WILL THEN SLIP QUICKLY
SOUTH AS A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE DELMARVA
PENNISULA. RAINFALL RATES UP TO 0.4 INCHES HAVE BEEN ESTIMATED BY
RADAR.

THE BACKEDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD HOWEVER...IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD
THE HUDSON VALLEY...ALREADY TAPERING BACK TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS AND EVEN SCHOHARIE VALLEY. IT LOOKS
AS IF THE STEADIEST RAINFALL SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CAPITAL REGION
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND DAMP.

A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TO OUR NORTHWEST WAS ACTUALLY HELP MOVE THE
SHOWERS ALONG. THIS SHORT WAVE THOUGH KEEPS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPER AND SHOWALTER INDICES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE SO WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCES OF AFTERNOON THUNDER IN OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS
ONLY.

TEMPERATURES HAVE FLAT LINED DUE TO THE RAIN...STUCK IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S. AS THE STEADY RAIN PULLS OUT...WE SHOULD GET A LITTLE
BUMP IN TEMPERATURES SO LEFT THEM ALONE. STILL...THEY WILL FALL
MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH MOST PLACES ENDING UP
WITH ONLY MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.


IT LOOKS AS IF WE SHOULD REACH HIGHER THAN ON ALL-TIME LOW MAX
FOR INDEPENDENCE...64 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1932.

FOR TONIGHT...RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AS WE WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THE POPS/WX ACROSS THE
REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE TOO SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE FOR EVENING
ACTIVITIES AND NIGHT VIEW OF THE SKY IMPROVING. SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN MOIST WITH
A WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT/WINDS AND NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE OF AN
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. MOS NUMBERS ARE VERY CLOSE /IF
NOT IDENTICAL/ AS A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PER THE NCEP MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES /AND HUMIDITY/ AS H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID
TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE
70S AND LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO THE 80S /SUB 90F/ ON
MONDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY JULY SUNSHINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL AVERAGE MAINLY INTO THE
55-60F GENERAL RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE 00Z GFS IS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/GGEM REGARDING THE SPEED OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE GFS SUGGEST
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BOTH ON TUESDAY ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD/ALONG THE ACTUAL
BOUNDARY...WHILE THE GGEM/ECMWF ARE MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LOW
CHC POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HIGH CHC POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS LOOK FAIRLY WARM IN THE MID 80S FOR BOTH TUES/WED
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH MUGGY LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
VALLEY AREAS FOR BOTH MON AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY WINDING UP STALLING JUST SOUTH/EAST OF THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHC
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. IF THE FRONT IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE...IT COULD WIND UP JUST DRY EVERYWHERE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND LESS HUMID BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S FOR THURS/FRI...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COULD APPROACH THE REGION FOR SOME POINT NEXT
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR DURING THE MORNING DUES
TO LOWERING CIGS AND A PERIOD OF RAIN. AS OF 1245Z...KPSF HAS
ALREADY GONE TO MVFR CIGS.

THESE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO ARRIVE SHORTLY.
INITIALLY...THIS RAINFALL WILL BE FALLING OUT OF A MID LEVEL
DECK...AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH RATHER LIGHT
RAINFALL. EVENTUALLY...THE RAINFALL WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY AND
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR ALL SITES FOR THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN
THROUGH THE MID AFTN HOURS. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME IFR
CONDITIONS BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE TIMING/EXTENT OF THIS
TO OCCUR IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE SURFACE WIND WILL VARIABLE
TO SOUTH WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY ABOUT 20Z-22Z...ALTHOUGH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP SOME LOWER CIGS AROUND THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE CLOUDS MAY START TO DECREASE FOR LATE THIS
EVENING...AND IT IS A GOOD BET SOME BR MAY DEVELOP FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ESP KPSF/KGFL. THERE COULD EVEN BE
SOME IFR CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD AS WELL. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM
FOR TONIGHT AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING WET WEATHER PROBABILITIES THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WILL KEEP RH VALUES RATHER ELEVATED TO
BETWEEN 55-75 PERCENT. MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THEN GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF A PERIOD WITH WET CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WITH FORECAST QPF/S
RANGING FROM ONE-TENTH TO ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS /MAINLY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS/. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON FLOWS ON AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM



000
FXUS61 KBTV 041439
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1039 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
INTO NORTHERN VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
OVERALL...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN
NATURE. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 70S TODAY WITH MORE
CLOUDS...BUT WILL BE WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH EXPECTED SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1039 AM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST FROM NEW YORK STATE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF VERMONT AT THIS TIME. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL BE FROM RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES
SOUTHWARD. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
VERMONT...AND HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES
TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 706 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPDATED FCST TO
INCREASE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT ZONES TO 70 TO 80%
BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND HRRR DATA. RADAR SHOWS A RATHER LARGE
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN MOVING
TOWARD RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THIS RAIN WILL
WEAKEN SOME AS IT ENCOUNTERS A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER OUR CWA...BUT
GIVEN FLOW ALOFT...JET ORIENTATION AND MAGITUDE OF 5H
VORT...THINKING MEASURABLE PRECIP IS VERY LIKELY ACROSS RUTLAND
AND WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THIS RAIN WILL
SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER INTERESTING
AREA TO WATCH IS SLV/WESTERN DACKS...AS LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH EVEN A LIGHTNING STRIKE
OCCURRING IN THE PAST COUPLE OF MINUTES. HAVE MENTION CHC POPS BUT
WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF FCST ATTM...DUE TO THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY OVER OUR CWA. OTHER ADJUSTMENT IS TO LOWER TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO MORE CLOUDS.

FCST CHALLENGE THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIP
AND AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS. 00Z ALBANY SOUNDING SHOWS A
DEEP DRY LAYER FROM 850 TO 300MB WITH PW VALUE OF ONLY 0.49".
HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE CONTS TO STREAM QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE NE CONUS...AHEAD OF S/W
TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG 25H JET. IN ADDITION...TO
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO OUR CWA...WATER VAPOR SHOWS EMBEDDED 5H
VORT IN THE FAST PROGRESSIVELY FLW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL OHIO. USING
THE RADAR AND COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGS OFF THE HRRR THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL PA INTO NY WILL
ADVECT NE INTO OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE WEAKENING DUE TO
DRY AIR ALOFT. BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE QPF WILL BE SOUTH OF A
SLK TO BTV TO MPV LINE THIS MORNING...WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS
GENERALLY < 0.10 ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES. WILL INCREASE
POPS AND MENTION LIKELY (60%) ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TWO COUNTIES AND
TAPER TO NIL NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MEANWHILE...THIS
AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. GFS/NAM AND LOCAL
MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF
THUNDER DEVELOPING OVER THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS AFTER 18Z.
INTERESTING THE LOCAL MODELS SHOW A WEAK LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
ON EDGE OF CLOUD DECK...WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND
800 J/KG. THINKING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SLV/WESTERN DACKS BTWN 18Z- 21Z...AND MOVE EASTWARD TWD THE CPV
VALLEY AROUND 00Z...AND THRU CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY BY 03Z. HAVE
MENTIONED HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS TO COVER THIS SCENARIO LATER
TODAY...WITH QPF GENERALLY BTWN A TRACE TO 0.25" IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH A VARIETY OF CLOUDS LEVELS
EXPECTED...WHICH WILL HOLD VALUES MAINLY IN THE 70S. A FEW HIGHER
VALUES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SLV WHERE MORE SUN IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...NORTHERN STREAM 5H VORT WILL SWING
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WHILE RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE QUICKLY SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE BY 06Z. ANY
SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN OR BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...INCLUDING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. GIVEN TIMING
OF SHOWERS...SOME EVENING ACTIVITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE HOLIDAY
MAYBE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CPV VALLEY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN VT BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. EXPECT AREAS OF CLEARING TO
DEVELOP AFT 06Z WITH 1021MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO OUR CWA.
SOME PATCHY FOG/BR IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE DEEPER/PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS OF THE DACKS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLEARING...MAINLY 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO MID/UPPER
50S CPV.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NE CONUS
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES. STILL NOTICING ANOTHER 5H VORT IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IMPACTING NORTHERN VT BTWN 18Z-00Z SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
NEAR 12C....SUPPORT LOWER 70S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 80F WARMER VALLEYS ON
SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12C AND 14C...SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S
MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY... A HINT OF SUMMER NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE. THEREAFTER...STILL LOTS
OF QUESTIONS/DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT THAT
DELIVERS OUR SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE/WED.

REST OF DISCUSSION TAKEN FROM DAYSHIFT AS SAME ISSUES/QUESTIONS OF
PAST FEW DAYS.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON MONDAY BRINGING TEMPS IN THE 80S WITH 850
TEMPS RISING TO 14-15C WILL BE PUSHING EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE.

MODELS SIMILARLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY (1000-2000J/KG
CAPE) ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO THAT WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS SO TEMPS AGAIN IN THE MID 80S.

WHERE MODELS DIFFER IS ON HOW FAST THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
WITH GFS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW
UPPER TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH, SO NOT EXPECTING A DEEPENING
TROF LIKE WE`VE HAD LATELY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES, SO WENT WITH
A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING
AROUND ON WED. TEMPS A BIT COOLER ON WED.

SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THU-FRI AS FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY
WESTERLY WITH WEAK TROFFING SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (80/60).

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASING AND THICKENING WITH SOME
SCT SHOWERS DURING THE DAY BUT DRY AT NIGHT. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN...MAINLY VFR.
MON...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LCL LIFR FG PSBL KMPV/KSLK.
TUE..MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT.
WED...MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR POST FRONTAL -SHRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 041439
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1039 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
INTO NORTHERN VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
OVERALL...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN
NATURE. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 70S TODAY WITH MORE
CLOUDS...BUT WILL BE WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH EXPECTED SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1039 AM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST FROM NEW YORK STATE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF VERMONT AT THIS TIME. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL BE FROM RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES
SOUTHWARD. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
VERMONT...AND HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES
TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 706 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPDATED FCST TO
INCREASE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT ZONES TO 70 TO 80%
BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND HRRR DATA. RADAR SHOWS A RATHER LARGE
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN MOVING
TOWARD RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THIS RAIN WILL
WEAKEN SOME AS IT ENCOUNTERS A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER OUR CWA...BUT
GIVEN FLOW ALOFT...JET ORIENTATION AND MAGITUDE OF 5H
VORT...THINKING MEASURABLE PRECIP IS VERY LIKELY ACROSS RUTLAND
AND WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THIS RAIN WILL
SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER INTERESTING
AREA TO WATCH IS SLV/WESTERN DACKS...AS LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH EVEN A LIGHTNING STRIKE
OCCURRING IN THE PAST COUPLE OF MINUTES. HAVE MENTION CHC POPS BUT
WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF FCST ATTM...DUE TO THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY OVER OUR CWA. OTHER ADJUSTMENT IS TO LOWER TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO MORE CLOUDS.

FCST CHALLENGE THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIP
AND AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS. 00Z ALBANY SOUNDING SHOWS A
DEEP DRY LAYER FROM 850 TO 300MB WITH PW VALUE OF ONLY 0.49".
HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE CONTS TO STREAM QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE NE CONUS...AHEAD OF S/W
TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG 25H JET. IN ADDITION...TO
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO OUR CWA...WATER VAPOR SHOWS EMBEDDED 5H
VORT IN THE FAST PROGRESSIVELY FLW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL OHIO. USING
THE RADAR AND COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGS OFF THE HRRR THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL PA INTO NY WILL
ADVECT NE INTO OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE WEAKENING DUE TO
DRY AIR ALOFT. BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE QPF WILL BE SOUTH OF A
SLK TO BTV TO MPV LINE THIS MORNING...WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS
GENERALLY < 0.10 ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES. WILL INCREASE
POPS AND MENTION LIKELY (60%) ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TWO COUNTIES AND
TAPER TO NIL NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MEANWHILE...THIS
AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. GFS/NAM AND LOCAL
MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF
THUNDER DEVELOPING OVER THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS AFTER 18Z.
INTERESTING THE LOCAL MODELS SHOW A WEAK LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
ON EDGE OF CLOUD DECK...WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND
800 J/KG. THINKING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SLV/WESTERN DACKS BTWN 18Z- 21Z...AND MOVE EASTWARD TWD THE CPV
VALLEY AROUND 00Z...AND THRU CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY BY 03Z. HAVE
MENTIONED HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS TO COVER THIS SCENARIO LATER
TODAY...WITH QPF GENERALLY BTWN A TRACE TO 0.25" IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH A VARIETY OF CLOUDS LEVELS
EXPECTED...WHICH WILL HOLD VALUES MAINLY IN THE 70S. A FEW HIGHER
VALUES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SLV WHERE MORE SUN IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...NORTHERN STREAM 5H VORT WILL SWING
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WHILE RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE QUICKLY SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE BY 06Z. ANY
SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN OR BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...INCLUDING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. GIVEN TIMING
OF SHOWERS...SOME EVENING ACTIVITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE HOLIDAY
MAYBE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CPV VALLEY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN VT BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. EXPECT AREAS OF CLEARING TO
DEVELOP AFT 06Z WITH 1021MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO OUR CWA.
SOME PATCHY FOG/BR IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE DEEPER/PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS OF THE DACKS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLEARING...MAINLY 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO MID/UPPER
50S CPV.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NE CONUS
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES. STILL NOTICING ANOTHER 5H VORT IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IMPACTING NORTHERN VT BTWN 18Z-00Z SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
NEAR 12C....SUPPORT LOWER 70S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 80F WARMER VALLEYS ON
SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12C AND 14C...SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S
MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY... A HINT OF SUMMER NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE. THEREAFTER...STILL LOTS
OF QUESTIONS/DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT THAT
DELIVERS OUR SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE/WED.

REST OF DISCUSSION TAKEN FROM DAYSHIFT AS SAME ISSUES/QUESTIONS OF
PAST FEW DAYS.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON MONDAY BRINGING TEMPS IN THE 80S WITH 850
TEMPS RISING TO 14-15C WILL BE PUSHING EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE.

MODELS SIMILARLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY (1000-2000J/KG
CAPE) ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO THAT WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS SO TEMPS AGAIN IN THE MID 80S.

WHERE MODELS DIFFER IS ON HOW FAST THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
WITH GFS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW
UPPER TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH, SO NOT EXPECTING A DEEPENING
TROF LIKE WE`VE HAD LATELY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES, SO WENT WITH
A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING
AROUND ON WED. TEMPS A BIT COOLER ON WED.

SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THU-FRI AS FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY
WESTERLY WITH WEAK TROFFING SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (80/60).

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASING AND THICKENING WITH SOME
SCT SHOWERS DURING THE DAY BUT DRY AT NIGHT. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN...MAINLY VFR.
MON...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LCL LIFR FG PSBL KMPV/KSLK.
TUE..MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT.
WED...MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR POST FRONTAL -SHRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 041439
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1039 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
INTO NORTHERN VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
OVERALL...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN
NATURE. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 70S TODAY WITH MORE
CLOUDS...BUT WILL BE WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH EXPECTED SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1039 AM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST FROM NEW YORK STATE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF VERMONT AT THIS TIME. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL BE FROM RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES
SOUTHWARD. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
VERMONT...AND HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES
TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 706 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPDATED FCST TO
INCREASE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT ZONES TO 70 TO 80%
BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND HRRR DATA. RADAR SHOWS A RATHER LARGE
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN MOVING
TOWARD RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THIS RAIN WILL
WEAKEN SOME AS IT ENCOUNTERS A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER OUR CWA...BUT
GIVEN FLOW ALOFT...JET ORIENTATION AND MAGITUDE OF 5H
VORT...THINKING MEASURABLE PRECIP IS VERY LIKELY ACROSS RUTLAND
AND WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THIS RAIN WILL
SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER INTERESTING
AREA TO WATCH IS SLV/WESTERN DACKS...AS LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH EVEN A LIGHTNING STRIKE
OCCURRING IN THE PAST COUPLE OF MINUTES. HAVE MENTION CHC POPS BUT
WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF FCST ATTM...DUE TO THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY OVER OUR CWA. OTHER ADJUSTMENT IS TO LOWER TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO MORE CLOUDS.

FCST CHALLENGE THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIP
AND AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS. 00Z ALBANY SOUNDING SHOWS A
DEEP DRY LAYER FROM 850 TO 300MB WITH PW VALUE OF ONLY 0.49".
HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE CONTS TO STREAM QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE NE CONUS...AHEAD OF S/W
TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG 25H JET. IN ADDITION...TO
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO OUR CWA...WATER VAPOR SHOWS EMBEDDED 5H
VORT IN THE FAST PROGRESSIVELY FLW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL OHIO. USING
THE RADAR AND COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGS OFF THE HRRR THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL PA INTO NY WILL
ADVECT NE INTO OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE WEAKENING DUE TO
DRY AIR ALOFT. BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE QPF WILL BE SOUTH OF A
SLK TO BTV TO MPV LINE THIS MORNING...WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS
GENERALLY < 0.10 ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES. WILL INCREASE
POPS AND MENTION LIKELY (60%) ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TWO COUNTIES AND
TAPER TO NIL NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MEANWHILE...THIS
AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. GFS/NAM AND LOCAL
MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF
THUNDER DEVELOPING OVER THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS AFTER 18Z.
INTERESTING THE LOCAL MODELS SHOW A WEAK LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
ON EDGE OF CLOUD DECK...WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND
800 J/KG. THINKING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SLV/WESTERN DACKS BTWN 18Z- 21Z...AND MOVE EASTWARD TWD THE CPV
VALLEY AROUND 00Z...AND THRU CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY BY 03Z. HAVE
MENTIONED HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS TO COVER THIS SCENARIO LATER
TODAY...WITH QPF GENERALLY BTWN A TRACE TO 0.25" IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH A VARIETY OF CLOUDS LEVELS
EXPECTED...WHICH WILL HOLD VALUES MAINLY IN THE 70S. A FEW HIGHER
VALUES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SLV WHERE MORE SUN IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...NORTHERN STREAM 5H VORT WILL SWING
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WHILE RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE QUICKLY SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE BY 06Z. ANY
SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN OR BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...INCLUDING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. GIVEN TIMING
OF SHOWERS...SOME EVENING ACTIVITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE HOLIDAY
MAYBE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CPV VALLEY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN VT BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. EXPECT AREAS OF CLEARING TO
DEVELOP AFT 06Z WITH 1021MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO OUR CWA.
SOME PATCHY FOG/BR IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE DEEPER/PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS OF THE DACKS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLEARING...MAINLY 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO MID/UPPER
50S CPV.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NE CONUS
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES. STILL NOTICING ANOTHER 5H VORT IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IMPACTING NORTHERN VT BTWN 18Z-00Z SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
NEAR 12C....SUPPORT LOWER 70S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 80F WARMER VALLEYS ON
SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12C AND 14C...SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S
MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY... A HINT OF SUMMER NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE. THEREAFTER...STILL LOTS
OF QUESTIONS/DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT THAT
DELIVERS OUR SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE/WED.

REST OF DISCUSSION TAKEN FROM DAYSHIFT AS SAME ISSUES/QUESTIONS OF
PAST FEW DAYS.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON MONDAY BRINGING TEMPS IN THE 80S WITH 850
TEMPS RISING TO 14-15C WILL BE PUSHING EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE.

MODELS SIMILARLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY (1000-2000J/KG
CAPE) ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO THAT WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS SO TEMPS AGAIN IN THE MID 80S.

WHERE MODELS DIFFER IS ON HOW FAST THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
WITH GFS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW
UPPER TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH, SO NOT EXPECTING A DEEPENING
TROF LIKE WE`VE HAD LATELY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES, SO WENT WITH
A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING
AROUND ON WED. TEMPS A BIT COOLER ON WED.

SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THU-FRI AS FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY
WESTERLY WITH WEAK TROFFING SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (80/60).

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASING AND THICKENING WITH SOME
SCT SHOWERS DURING THE DAY BUT DRY AT NIGHT. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN...MAINLY VFR.
MON...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LCL LIFR FG PSBL KMPV/KSLK.
TUE..MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT.
WED...MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR POST FRONTAL -SHRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KALY 041330
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
930 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL COINCIDE
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO BRING CLOUDS AND A PERIOD OF
WET WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO RETURN
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 930 AM EDT...RAIN SHOWERS HAVE WORKED INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY
INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION. FOR THIS UPDATE...WILL FINE TUNE
POPS/TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS/WIND FOR THIS UPDATE.

THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN TAPER
BACK TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL HARD PRESSED TO GET
OUT OF THE 60S TODAY. IT LOOKS AS IF WE SHOULD REACH HIGHER THAN ON
ALL-TIME LOW MAX FOR INDEPENDENCE...64 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1932.

H2O VAPOR LOOP CONTINUED TO REVEAL AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH
FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF NORTH AMERICA WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY. A CLOSER EXAMINATION
SHOWS A STRENGTHENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET PER THE GOES SATELLITE
HIGH DENSITY WIND MAGNITUDES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WESTERN NY.
THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT HAS RESULTED IN AN EXPANDING AREA OF RAIN NOW
REACHING OUR AREA.

FGEN FORCING ALONG WITH DEFORMATION DYNAMICS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE
ALL POINT TOWARD RAISING POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...AS THE COASTAL LOW
INTENSIFIES...THE UPPER DYNAMICS QUICKLY TRACK TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
21Z. YET THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WAS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. HERE THE RAINFALL FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THESE AREAS TOO MUCH AND MAY ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
INSOLATION BEFORE THIS WAVE APPROACHES. HIRES MODELS POINT TOWARD A
REGION OF INCREASING SBCAPES CLOSE TO 1K J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
DACKS TO INTRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST. WHILE NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED /LIMITED SHEAR PROFILES AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES/...LIGHTNING WILL POSE A HAZARD
FOR THOSE ACROSS THE DACKS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVERAGE AND PRECIP...WE WILL LOWER AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE OF DEGREES AND IN CLOSER ENSEMBLE APPROACH OF THE MOS DATA.

FOR TONIGHT...RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS WE WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THE POPS/WX ACROSS THE
REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE TOO SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE FOR EVENING
ACTIVITIES AND NIGHT VIEW OF THE SKY IMPROVING. SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN MOIST WITH
A WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT/WINDS AND NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE OF AN
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. MOS NUMBERS ARE VERY CLOSE /IF
NOT IDENTICAL/ AS A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PER THE NCEP MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES /AND HUMIDITY/ AS H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID
TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE
70S AND LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO THE 80S /SUB 90F/ ON
MONDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY JULY SUNSHINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL AVERAGE MAINLY INTO THE
55-60F GENERAL RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE 00Z GFS IS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/GGEM REGARDING THE SPEED OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE GFS SUGGEST
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BOTH ON TUESDAY ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD/ALONG THE ACTUAL
BOUNDARY...WHILE THE GGEM/ECMWF ARE MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LOW
CHC POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HIGH CHC POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS LOOK FAIRLY WARM IN THE MID 80S FOR BOTH TUES/WED
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH MUGGY LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
VALLEY AREAS FOR BOTH MON AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY WINDING UP STALLING JUST SOUTH/EAST OF THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHC
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. IF THE FRONT IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE...IT COULD WIND UP JUST DRY EVERYWHERE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND LESS HUMID BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S FOR THURS/FRI...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COULD APPROACH THE REGION FOR SOME POINT NEXT
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR DURING THE MORNING DUES
TO LOWERING CIGS AND A PERIOD OF RAIN. AS OF 1245Z...KPSF HAS
ALREADY GONE TO MVFR CIGS.

THESE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO ARRIVE SHORTLY.
INITIALLY...THIS RAINFALL WILL BE FALLING OUT OF A MID LEVEL
DECK...AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH RATHER LIGHT
RAINFALL. EVENTUALLY...THE RAINFALL WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY AND
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR ALL SITES FOR THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN
THROUGH THE MID AFTN HOURS. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME IFR
CONDITIONS BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE TIMING/EXTENT OF THIS
TO OCCUR IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE SURFACE WIND WILL VARIABLE
TO SOUTH WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY ABOUT 20Z-22Z...ALTHOUGH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP SOME LOWER CIGS AROUND THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE CLOUDS MAY START TO DECREASE FOR LATE THIS
EVENING...AND IT IS A GOOD BET SOME BR MAY DEVELOP FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ESP KPSF/KGFL. THERE COULD EVEN BE
SOME IFR CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD AS WELL. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM
FOR TONIGHT AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING WET WEATHER PROBABILITIES THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WILL KEEP RH VALUES RATHER ELEVATED TO
BETWEEN 55-75 PERCENT. MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THEN GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF A PERIOD WITH WET CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WITH FORECAST QPF/S
RANGING FROM ONE-TENTH TO ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS /MAINLY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS/. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON FLOWS ON AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM NEAR TERM...BGM/
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 041330
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
930 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL COINCIDE
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO BRING CLOUDS AND A PERIOD OF
WET WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO RETURN
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 930 AM EDT...RAIN SHOWERS HAVE WORKED INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY
INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION. FOR THIS UPDATE...WILL FINE TUNE
POPS/TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS/WIND FOR THIS UPDATE.

THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN TAPER
BACK TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL HARD PRESSED TO GET
OUT OF THE 60S TODAY. IT LOOKS AS IF WE SHOULD REACH HIGHER THAN ON
ALL-TIME LOW MAX FOR INDEPENDENCE...64 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1932.

H2O VAPOR LOOP CONTINUED TO REVEAL AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH
FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF NORTH AMERICA WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY. A CLOSER EXAMINATION
SHOWS A STRENGTHENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET PER THE GOES SATELLITE
HIGH DENSITY WIND MAGNITUDES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WESTERN NY.
THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT HAS RESULTED IN AN EXPANDING AREA OF RAIN NOW
REACHING OUR AREA.

FGEN FORCING ALONG WITH DEFORMATION DYNAMICS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE
ALL POINT TOWARD RAISING POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...AS THE COASTAL LOW
INTENSIFIES...THE UPPER DYNAMICS QUICKLY TRACK TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
21Z. YET THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WAS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. HERE THE RAINFALL FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THESE AREAS TOO MUCH AND MAY ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
INSOLATION BEFORE THIS WAVE APPROACHES. HIRES MODELS POINT TOWARD A
REGION OF INCREASING SBCAPES CLOSE TO 1K J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
DACKS TO INTRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST. WHILE NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED /LIMITED SHEAR PROFILES AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES/...LIGHTNING WILL POSE A HAZARD
FOR THOSE ACROSS THE DACKS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVERAGE AND PRECIP...WE WILL LOWER AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE OF DEGREES AND IN CLOSER ENSEMBLE APPROACH OF THE MOS DATA.

FOR TONIGHT...RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS WE WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THE POPS/WX ACROSS THE
REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE TOO SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE FOR EVENING
ACTIVITIES AND NIGHT VIEW OF THE SKY IMPROVING. SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN MOIST WITH
A WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT/WINDS AND NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE OF AN
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. MOS NUMBERS ARE VERY CLOSE /IF
NOT IDENTICAL/ AS A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PER THE NCEP MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES /AND HUMIDITY/ AS H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID
TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE
70S AND LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO THE 80S /SUB 90F/ ON
MONDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY JULY SUNSHINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL AVERAGE MAINLY INTO THE
55-60F GENERAL RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE 00Z GFS IS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/GGEM REGARDING THE SPEED OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE GFS SUGGEST
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BOTH ON TUESDAY ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD/ALONG THE ACTUAL
BOUNDARY...WHILE THE GGEM/ECMWF ARE MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LOW
CHC POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HIGH CHC POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS LOOK FAIRLY WARM IN THE MID 80S FOR BOTH TUES/WED
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH MUGGY LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
VALLEY AREAS FOR BOTH MON AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY WINDING UP STALLING JUST SOUTH/EAST OF THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHC
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. IF THE FRONT IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE...IT COULD WIND UP JUST DRY EVERYWHERE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND LESS HUMID BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S FOR THURS/FRI...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COULD APPROACH THE REGION FOR SOME POINT NEXT
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR DURING THE MORNING DUES
TO LOWERING CIGS AND A PERIOD OF RAIN. AS OF 1245Z...KPSF HAS
ALREADY GONE TO MVFR CIGS.

THESE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO ARRIVE SHORTLY.
INITIALLY...THIS RAINFALL WILL BE FALLING OUT OF A MID LEVEL
DECK...AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH RATHER LIGHT
RAINFALL. EVENTUALLY...THE RAINFALL WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY AND
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR ALL SITES FOR THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN
THROUGH THE MID AFTN HOURS. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME IFR
CONDITIONS BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE TIMING/EXTENT OF THIS
TO OCCUR IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE SURFACE WIND WILL VARIABLE
TO SOUTH WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY ABOUT 20Z-22Z...ALTHOUGH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP SOME LOWER CIGS AROUND THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE CLOUDS MAY START TO DECREASE FOR LATE THIS
EVENING...AND IT IS A GOOD BET SOME BR MAY DEVELOP FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ESP KPSF/KGFL. THERE COULD EVEN BE
SOME IFR CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD AS WELL. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM
FOR TONIGHT AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING WET WEATHER PROBABILITIES THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WILL KEEP RH VALUES RATHER ELEVATED TO
BETWEEN 55-75 PERCENT. MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THEN GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF A PERIOD WITH WET CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WITH FORECAST QPF/S
RANGING FROM ONE-TENTH TO ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS /MAINLY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS/. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON FLOWS ON AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM NEAR TERM...BGM/
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 041248
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
848 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL COINCIDE
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO BRING CLOUDS AND A PERIOD OF
WET WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO RETURN
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 845 AM EDT...LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN/SHOWERS WAS ALREADY
WORKING INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK. SO LITTLE
ENHANCEMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

H2O VAPOR LOOP CONTINUED TO REVEAL AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE
TROUGH FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF NORTH AMERICA WITH EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY. A CLOSER
EXAMINATION SHOWS A STRENGTHENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET PER THE
GOES SATELLITE HIGH DENSITY WIND MAGNITUDES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO WESTERN NY. THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT HAS RESULTED IN AN EXPANDING
AREA OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PA NOW APPROACHING SOUTH- CENTRAL NY
/SOUTHERN TIER/. TRENDS AND THE LATEST RAP13/HRRR SUGGEST THIS
RAINFALL WILL MOVE INTO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES /CATSKILLS/ SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE AND SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. FGEN FORCING ALONG WITH DEFORMATION DYNAMICS AND
UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALL POINT TOWARD RAISING POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...AS THE
COASTAL LOW INTENSIFIES...THE UPPER DYNAMICS QUICKLY TRACK TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF THE RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION AROUND 21Z. YET THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WAS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HERE THE RAINFALL FROM
EARLIER IN THE DAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THESE AREAS TOO MUCH
AND MAY ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL INSOLATION BEFORE THIS WAVE
APPROACHES. HIRES MODELS POINT TOWARD A REGION OF INCREASING
SBCAPES CLOSE TO 1K J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO INTRODUCE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST. WHILE NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED /LIMITED SHEAR PROFILES AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND
MARGINAL LAPSE RATES/...LIGHTNING WILL POSE A HAZARD FOR THOSE
ACROSS THE DACKS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE
AND PRECIP...WE WILL LOWER AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF
DEGREES AND IN CLOSER ENSEMBLE APPROACH OF THE MOS DATA.

FOR TONIGHT...RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS WE WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THE POPS/WX ACROSS THE
REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE TOO SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE FOR EVENING
ACTIVITIES AND NIGHT VIEW OF THE SKY IMPROVING. SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN MOIST WITH
A WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT/WINDS AND NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE OF AN
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. MOS NUMBERS ARE VERY CLOSE /IF
NOT IDENTICAL/ AS A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PER THE NCEP MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES /AND HUMIDITY/ AS H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID
TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE
70S AND LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO THE 80S /SUB 90F/ ON
MONDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY JULY SUNSHINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL AVERAGE MAINLY INTO THE
55-60F GENERAL RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE 00Z GFS IS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/GGEM REGARDING THE SPEED OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE GFS SUGGEST
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BOTH ON TUESDAY ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD/ALONG THE ACTUAL
BOUNDARY...WHILE THE GGEM/ECMWF ARE MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LOW
CHC POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HIGH CHC POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS LOOK FAIRLY WARM IN THE MID 80S FOR BOTH TUES/WED
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH MUGGY LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
VALLEY AREAS FOR BOTH MON AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY WINDING UP STALLING JUST SOUTH/EAST OF THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHC
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. IF THE FRONT IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE...IT COULD WIND UP JUST DRY EVERYWHERE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND LESS HUMID BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S FOR THURS/FRI...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COULD APPROACH THE REGION FOR SOME POINT NEXT
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR DURING THE MORNING DUES
TO LOWERING CIGS AND A PERIOD OF RAIN. AS OF 1245Z...KPSF HAS
ALREADY GONE TO MVFR CIGS.

THESE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO ARRIVE SHORTLY.
INITIALLY...THIS RAINFALL WILL BE FALLING OUT OF A MID LEVEL
DECK...AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH RATHER LIGHT
RAINFALL. EVENTUALLY...THE RAINFALL WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY AND
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR ALL SITES FOR THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN
THROUGH THE MID AFTN HOURS. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME IFR
CONDITIONS BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE TIMING/EXTENT OF THIS
TO OCCUR IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE SURFACE WIND WILL VARIABLE
TO SOUTH WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY ABOUT 20Z-22Z...ALTHOUGH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP SOME LOWER CIGS AROUND THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE CLOUDS MAY START TO DECREASE FOR LATE THIS
EVENING...AND IT IS A GOOD BET SOME BR MAY DEVELOP FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ESP KPSF/KGFL. THERE COULD EVEN BE
SOME IFR CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD AS WELL. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM
FOR TONIGHT AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING WET WEATHER PROBABILITIES THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WILL KEEP RH VALUES RATHER ELEVATED TO
BETWEEN 55-75 PERCENT. MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THEN GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF A PERIOD WITH WET CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WITH FORECAST QPF/S
RANGING FROM ONE-TENTH TO ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS /MAINLY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS/. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON FLOWS ON AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 041248
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
848 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL COINCIDE
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO BRING CLOUDS AND A PERIOD OF
WET WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO RETURN
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 845 AM EDT...LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN/SHOWERS WAS ALREADY
WORKING INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK. SO LITTLE
ENHANCEMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

H2O VAPOR LOOP CONTINUED TO REVEAL AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE
TROUGH FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF NORTH AMERICA WITH EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY. A CLOSER
EXAMINATION SHOWS A STRENGTHENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET PER THE
GOES SATELLITE HIGH DENSITY WIND MAGNITUDES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO WESTERN NY. THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT HAS RESULTED IN AN EXPANDING
AREA OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PA NOW APPROACHING SOUTH- CENTRAL NY
/SOUTHERN TIER/. TRENDS AND THE LATEST RAP13/HRRR SUGGEST THIS
RAINFALL WILL MOVE INTO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES /CATSKILLS/ SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE AND SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. FGEN FORCING ALONG WITH DEFORMATION DYNAMICS AND
UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALL POINT TOWARD RAISING POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...AS THE
COASTAL LOW INTENSIFIES...THE UPPER DYNAMICS QUICKLY TRACK TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF THE RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION AROUND 21Z. YET THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WAS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HERE THE RAINFALL FROM
EARLIER IN THE DAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THESE AREAS TOO MUCH
AND MAY ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL INSOLATION BEFORE THIS WAVE
APPROACHES. HIRES MODELS POINT TOWARD A REGION OF INCREASING
SBCAPES CLOSE TO 1K J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO INTRODUCE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST. WHILE NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED /LIMITED SHEAR PROFILES AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND
MARGINAL LAPSE RATES/...LIGHTNING WILL POSE A HAZARD FOR THOSE
ACROSS THE DACKS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE
AND PRECIP...WE WILL LOWER AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF
DEGREES AND IN CLOSER ENSEMBLE APPROACH OF THE MOS DATA.

FOR TONIGHT...RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS WE WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THE POPS/WX ACROSS THE
REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE TOO SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE FOR EVENING
ACTIVITIES AND NIGHT VIEW OF THE SKY IMPROVING. SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN MOIST WITH
A WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT/WINDS AND NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE OF AN
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. MOS NUMBERS ARE VERY CLOSE /IF
NOT IDENTICAL/ AS A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PER THE NCEP MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES /AND HUMIDITY/ AS H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID
TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE
70S AND LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO THE 80S /SUB 90F/ ON
MONDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY JULY SUNSHINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL AVERAGE MAINLY INTO THE
55-60F GENERAL RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE 00Z GFS IS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/GGEM REGARDING THE SPEED OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE GFS SUGGEST
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BOTH ON TUESDAY ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD/ALONG THE ACTUAL
BOUNDARY...WHILE THE GGEM/ECMWF ARE MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LOW
CHC POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HIGH CHC POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS LOOK FAIRLY WARM IN THE MID 80S FOR BOTH TUES/WED
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH MUGGY LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
VALLEY AREAS FOR BOTH MON AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY WINDING UP STALLING JUST SOUTH/EAST OF THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHC
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. IF THE FRONT IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE...IT COULD WIND UP JUST DRY EVERYWHERE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND LESS HUMID BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S FOR THURS/FRI...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COULD APPROACH THE REGION FOR SOME POINT NEXT
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR DURING THE MORNING DUES
TO LOWERING CIGS AND A PERIOD OF RAIN. AS OF 1245Z...KPSF HAS
ALREADY GONE TO MVFR CIGS.

THESE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO ARRIVE SHORTLY.
INITIALLY...THIS RAINFALL WILL BE FALLING OUT OF A MID LEVEL
DECK...AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH RATHER LIGHT
RAINFALL. EVENTUALLY...THE RAINFALL WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY AND
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR ALL SITES FOR THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN
THROUGH THE MID AFTN HOURS. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME IFR
CONDITIONS BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE TIMING/EXTENT OF THIS
TO OCCUR IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE SURFACE WIND WILL VARIABLE
TO SOUTH WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY ABOUT 20Z-22Z...ALTHOUGH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP SOME LOWER CIGS AROUND THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE CLOUDS MAY START TO DECREASE FOR LATE THIS
EVENING...AND IT IS A GOOD BET SOME BR MAY DEVELOP FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ESP KPSF/KGFL. THERE COULD EVEN BE
SOME IFR CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD AS WELL. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM
FOR TONIGHT AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING WET WEATHER PROBABILITIES THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WILL KEEP RH VALUES RATHER ELEVATED TO
BETWEEN 55-75 PERCENT. MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THEN GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF A PERIOD WITH WET CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WITH FORECAST QPF/S
RANGING FROM ONE-TENTH TO ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS /MAINLY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS/. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON FLOWS ON AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 041248
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
848 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL COINCIDE
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO BRING CLOUDS AND A PERIOD OF
WET WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO RETURN
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 845 AM EDT...LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN/SHOWERS WAS ALREADY
WORKING INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK. SO LITTLE
ENHANCEMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

H2O VAPOR LOOP CONTINUED TO REVEAL AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE
TROUGH FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF NORTH AMERICA WITH EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY. A CLOSER
EXAMINATION SHOWS A STRENGTHENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET PER THE
GOES SATELLITE HIGH DENSITY WIND MAGNITUDES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO WESTERN NY. THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT HAS RESULTED IN AN EXPANDING
AREA OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PA NOW APPROACHING SOUTH- CENTRAL NY
/SOUTHERN TIER/. TRENDS AND THE LATEST RAP13/HRRR SUGGEST THIS
RAINFALL WILL MOVE INTO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES /CATSKILLS/ SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE AND SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. FGEN FORCING ALONG WITH DEFORMATION DYNAMICS AND
UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALL POINT TOWARD RAISING POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...AS THE
COASTAL LOW INTENSIFIES...THE UPPER DYNAMICS QUICKLY TRACK TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF THE RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION AROUND 21Z. YET THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WAS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HERE THE RAINFALL FROM
EARLIER IN THE DAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THESE AREAS TOO MUCH
AND MAY ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL INSOLATION BEFORE THIS WAVE
APPROACHES. HIRES MODELS POINT TOWARD A REGION OF INCREASING
SBCAPES CLOSE TO 1K J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO INTRODUCE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST. WHILE NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED /LIMITED SHEAR PROFILES AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND
MARGINAL LAPSE RATES/...LIGHTNING WILL POSE A HAZARD FOR THOSE
ACROSS THE DACKS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE
AND PRECIP...WE WILL LOWER AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF
DEGREES AND IN CLOSER ENSEMBLE APPROACH OF THE MOS DATA.

FOR TONIGHT...RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS WE WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THE POPS/WX ACROSS THE
REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE TOO SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE FOR EVENING
ACTIVITIES AND NIGHT VIEW OF THE SKY IMPROVING. SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN MOIST WITH
A WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT/WINDS AND NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE OF AN
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. MOS NUMBERS ARE VERY CLOSE /IF
NOT IDENTICAL/ AS A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PER THE NCEP MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES /AND HUMIDITY/ AS H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID
TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE
70S AND LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO THE 80S /SUB 90F/ ON
MONDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY JULY SUNSHINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL AVERAGE MAINLY INTO THE
55-60F GENERAL RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE 00Z GFS IS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/GGEM REGARDING THE SPEED OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE GFS SUGGEST
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BOTH ON TUESDAY ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD/ALONG THE ACTUAL
BOUNDARY...WHILE THE GGEM/ECMWF ARE MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LOW
CHC POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HIGH CHC POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS LOOK FAIRLY WARM IN THE MID 80S FOR BOTH TUES/WED
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH MUGGY LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
VALLEY AREAS FOR BOTH MON AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY WINDING UP STALLING JUST SOUTH/EAST OF THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHC
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. IF THE FRONT IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE...IT COULD WIND UP JUST DRY EVERYWHERE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND LESS HUMID BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S FOR THURS/FRI...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COULD APPROACH THE REGION FOR SOME POINT NEXT
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR DURING THE MORNING DUES
TO LOWERING CIGS AND A PERIOD OF RAIN. AS OF 1245Z...KPSF HAS
ALREADY GONE TO MVFR CIGS.

THESE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO ARRIVE SHORTLY.
INITIALLY...THIS RAINFALL WILL BE FALLING OUT OF A MID LEVEL
DECK...AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH RATHER LIGHT
RAINFALL. EVENTUALLY...THE RAINFALL WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY AND
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR ALL SITES FOR THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN
THROUGH THE MID AFTN HOURS. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME IFR
CONDITIONS BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE TIMING/EXTENT OF THIS
TO OCCUR IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE SURFACE WIND WILL VARIABLE
TO SOUTH WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY ABOUT 20Z-22Z...ALTHOUGH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP SOME LOWER CIGS AROUND THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE CLOUDS MAY START TO DECREASE FOR LATE THIS
EVENING...AND IT IS A GOOD BET SOME BR MAY DEVELOP FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ESP KPSF/KGFL. THERE COULD EVEN BE
SOME IFR CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD AS WELL. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM
FOR TONIGHT AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING WET WEATHER PROBABILITIES THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WILL KEEP RH VALUES RATHER ELEVATED TO
BETWEEN 55-75 PERCENT. MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THEN GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF A PERIOD WITH WET CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WITH FORECAST QPF/S
RANGING FROM ONE-TENTH TO ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS /MAINLY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS/. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON FLOWS ON AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 041139
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
739 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL COINCIDE
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO BRING CLOUDS AND A PERIOD OF
WET WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO RETURN
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN/SHOWERS WAS
APPROACHING THE CATSKILLS WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. REGIONAL UPSTREAM RADAR MOSAIC
CONTINUES TO SHOW AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS CONTINUING TO
ADVANCE NORTHEAST. HRRR/RAP13 CONTINUES WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS OF
MOVING THE WET CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. SO LITTLE ENHANCEMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
WITH MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

AS OF 400 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS EARLY INDEPENDENCE MORNING
REVEALS AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF
NORTH AMERICA WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND OHIO VALLEY. A CLOSER EXAMINATION SHOWS A STRENGTHENING
MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET PER THE GOES SATELLITE HIGH DENSITY WIND
MAGNITUDES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WESTERN NY. THE DIVERGENCE
ALOFT HAS RESULTED IN AN EXPANDING AREA OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PA
NOW APPROACHING SOUTH-CENTRAL NY /SOUTHERN TIER/. TRENDS AND THE
LATEST RAP13/HRRR SUGGEST THIS RAINFALL WILL MOVE INTO OUR
SOUTHWEST ZONES /CATSKILLS/ SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND SPREAD
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FGEN FORCING
ALONG WITH DEFORMATION DYNAMICS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALL POINT
TOWARD RAISING POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN 2/3RDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...AS THE COASTAL LOW INTENSIFIES...THE
UPPER DYNAMICS QUICKLY TRACK TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WITH A DECREASE
IN COVERAGE OF THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AROUND 21Z. YET THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE WAS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. HERE THE RAINFALL FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY IS NOT EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THESE AREAS TOO MUCH AND MAY ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
INSOLATION BEFORE THIS WAVE APPROACHES. HIRES MODELS POINT TOWARD
A REGION OF INCREASING SBCAPES CLOSE TO 1K J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE DACKS TO INTRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST.
WHILE NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED /LIMITED SHEAR PROFILES AND
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES/...LIGHTNING WILL
POSE A HAZARD FOR THOSE ACROSS THE DACKS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND PRECIP...WE WILL LOWER AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND IN CLOSER ENSEMBLE APPROACH
OF THE MOS DATA.

FOR TONIGHT...RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS WE WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THE POPS/WX ACROSS THE
REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE TOO SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE FOR EVENING
ACTIVITIES AND NIGHT VIEW OF THE SKY IMPROVING. SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN MOIST WITH
A WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT/WINDS AND NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE OF AN
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. MOS NUMBERS ARE VERY CLOSE /IF
NOT IDENTICAL/ AS A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PER THE NCEP MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES /AND HUMIDITY/ AS H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID
TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE
70S AND LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO THE 80S /SUB 90F/ ON
MONDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY JULY SUNSHINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL AVERAGE MAINLY INTO THE
55-60F GENERAL RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE 00Z GFS IS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/GGEM REGARDING THE SPEED OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE GFS SUGGEST
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BOTH ON TUESDAY ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD/ALONG THE ACTUAL
BOUNDARY...WHILE THE GGEM/ECMWF ARE MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LOW
CHC POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HIGH CHC POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS LOOK FAIRLY WARM IN THE MID 80S FOR BOTH TUES/WED
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH MUGGY LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
VALLEY AREAS FOR BOTH MON AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY WINDING UP STALLING JUST SOUTH/EAST OF THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHC
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. IF THE FRONT IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE...IT COULD WIND UP JUST DRY EVERYWHERE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND LESS HUMID BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S FOR THURS/FRI...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COULD APPROACH THE REGION FOR SOME POINT NEXT
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

AS OF 1140Z...VFR CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES...BUT
AN AREA OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL NY AND NE PA THANKS TO AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS HEADED TOWARDS THE AREA.

THESE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO ARRIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. INITIALLY...THIS RAINFALL WILL BE FALLING OUT OF A MID
LEVEL DECK...AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH RATHER LIGHT
RAINFALL. EVENTUALLY...THE RAINFALL WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY AND
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR ALL SITES FOR THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN
THROUGH THE MID AFTN HOURS. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME IFR
CONDITIONS BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE TIMING/EXTENT OF THIS
TO OCCUR IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE SURFACE WIND WILL VARIABLE
TO SOUTH WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY ABOUT 20Z-22Z...ALTHOUGH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP SOME LOWER CIGS AROUND THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE CLOUDS MAY START TO DECREASE FOR LATE THIS
EVENING...AND IT IS A GOOD BET SOME BR MAY DEVELOP FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ESP KPSF/KGFL. THERE COULD EVEN BE
SOME IFR CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD AS WELL. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM
FOR TONIGHT AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING WET WEATHER PROBABILITIES THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WILL KEEP RH VALUES RATHER ELEVATED TO
BETWEEN 55-75 PERCENT. MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THEN GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF A PERIOD WITH WET CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WITH FORECAST QPF/S
RANGING FROM ONE-TENTH TO ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS /MAINLY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS/. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON FLOWS ON AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 041139
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
739 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL COINCIDE
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO BRING CLOUDS AND A PERIOD OF
WET WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO RETURN
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN/SHOWERS WAS
APPROACHING THE CATSKILLS WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. REGIONAL UPSTREAM RADAR MOSAIC
CONTINUES TO SHOW AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS CONTINUING TO
ADVANCE NORTHEAST. HRRR/RAP13 CONTINUES WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS OF
MOVING THE WET CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. SO LITTLE ENHANCEMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
WITH MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

AS OF 400 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS EARLY INDEPENDENCE MORNING
REVEALS AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF
NORTH AMERICA WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND OHIO VALLEY. A CLOSER EXAMINATION SHOWS A STRENGTHENING
MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET PER THE GOES SATELLITE HIGH DENSITY WIND
MAGNITUDES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WESTERN NY. THE DIVERGENCE
ALOFT HAS RESULTED IN AN EXPANDING AREA OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PA
NOW APPROACHING SOUTH-CENTRAL NY /SOUTHERN TIER/. TRENDS AND THE
LATEST RAP13/HRRR SUGGEST THIS RAINFALL WILL MOVE INTO OUR
SOUTHWEST ZONES /CATSKILLS/ SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND SPREAD
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FGEN FORCING
ALONG WITH DEFORMATION DYNAMICS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALL POINT
TOWARD RAISING POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN 2/3RDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...AS THE COASTAL LOW INTENSIFIES...THE
UPPER DYNAMICS QUICKLY TRACK TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WITH A DECREASE
IN COVERAGE OF THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AROUND 21Z. YET THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE WAS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. HERE THE RAINFALL FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY IS NOT EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THESE AREAS TOO MUCH AND MAY ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
INSOLATION BEFORE THIS WAVE APPROACHES. HIRES MODELS POINT TOWARD
A REGION OF INCREASING SBCAPES CLOSE TO 1K J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE DACKS TO INTRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST.
WHILE NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED /LIMITED SHEAR PROFILES AND
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES/...LIGHTNING WILL
POSE A HAZARD FOR THOSE ACROSS THE DACKS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND PRECIP...WE WILL LOWER AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND IN CLOSER ENSEMBLE APPROACH
OF THE MOS DATA.

FOR TONIGHT...RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS WE WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THE POPS/WX ACROSS THE
REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE TOO SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE FOR EVENING
ACTIVITIES AND NIGHT VIEW OF THE SKY IMPROVING. SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN MOIST WITH
A WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT/WINDS AND NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE OF AN
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. MOS NUMBERS ARE VERY CLOSE /IF
NOT IDENTICAL/ AS A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PER THE NCEP MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES /AND HUMIDITY/ AS H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID
TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE
70S AND LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO THE 80S /SUB 90F/ ON
MONDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY JULY SUNSHINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL AVERAGE MAINLY INTO THE
55-60F GENERAL RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE 00Z GFS IS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/GGEM REGARDING THE SPEED OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE GFS SUGGEST
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BOTH ON TUESDAY ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD/ALONG THE ACTUAL
BOUNDARY...WHILE THE GGEM/ECMWF ARE MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LOW
CHC POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HIGH CHC POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS LOOK FAIRLY WARM IN THE MID 80S FOR BOTH TUES/WED
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH MUGGY LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
VALLEY AREAS FOR BOTH MON AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY WINDING UP STALLING JUST SOUTH/EAST OF THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHC
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. IF THE FRONT IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE...IT COULD WIND UP JUST DRY EVERYWHERE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND LESS HUMID BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S FOR THURS/FRI...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COULD APPROACH THE REGION FOR SOME POINT NEXT
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

AS OF 1140Z...VFR CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES...BUT
AN AREA OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL NY AND NE PA THANKS TO AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS HEADED TOWARDS THE AREA.

THESE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO ARRIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. INITIALLY...THIS RAINFALL WILL BE FALLING OUT OF A MID
LEVEL DECK...AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH RATHER LIGHT
RAINFALL. EVENTUALLY...THE RAINFALL WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY AND
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR ALL SITES FOR THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN
THROUGH THE MID AFTN HOURS. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME IFR
CONDITIONS BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE TIMING/EXTENT OF THIS
TO OCCUR IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE SURFACE WIND WILL VARIABLE
TO SOUTH WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY ABOUT 20Z-22Z...ALTHOUGH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP SOME LOWER CIGS AROUND THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE CLOUDS MAY START TO DECREASE FOR LATE THIS
EVENING...AND IT IS A GOOD BET SOME BR MAY DEVELOP FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ESP KPSF/KGFL. THERE COULD EVEN BE
SOME IFR CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD AS WELL. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM
FOR TONIGHT AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING WET WEATHER PROBABILITIES THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WILL KEEP RH VALUES RATHER ELEVATED TO
BETWEEN 55-75 PERCENT. MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THEN GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF A PERIOD WITH WET CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WITH FORECAST QPF/S
RANGING FROM ONE-TENTH TO ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS /MAINLY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS/. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON FLOWS ON AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 041139
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
739 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL COINCIDE
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO BRING CLOUDS AND A PERIOD OF
WET WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO RETURN
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN/SHOWERS WAS
APPROACHING THE CATSKILLS WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. REGIONAL UPSTREAM RADAR MOSAIC
CONTINUES TO SHOW AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS CONTINUING TO
ADVANCE NORTHEAST. HRRR/RAP13 CONTINUES WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS OF
MOVING THE WET CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. SO LITTLE ENHANCEMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
WITH MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

AS OF 400 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS EARLY INDEPENDENCE MORNING
REVEALS AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF
NORTH AMERICA WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND OHIO VALLEY. A CLOSER EXAMINATION SHOWS A STRENGTHENING
MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET PER THE GOES SATELLITE HIGH DENSITY WIND
MAGNITUDES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WESTERN NY. THE DIVERGENCE
ALOFT HAS RESULTED IN AN EXPANDING AREA OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PA
NOW APPROACHING SOUTH-CENTRAL NY /SOUTHERN TIER/. TRENDS AND THE
LATEST RAP13/HRRR SUGGEST THIS RAINFALL WILL MOVE INTO OUR
SOUTHWEST ZONES /CATSKILLS/ SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND SPREAD
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FGEN FORCING
ALONG WITH DEFORMATION DYNAMICS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALL POINT
TOWARD RAISING POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN 2/3RDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...AS THE COASTAL LOW INTENSIFIES...THE
UPPER DYNAMICS QUICKLY TRACK TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WITH A DECREASE
IN COVERAGE OF THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AROUND 21Z. YET THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE WAS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. HERE THE RAINFALL FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY IS NOT EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THESE AREAS TOO MUCH AND MAY ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
INSOLATION BEFORE THIS WAVE APPROACHES. HIRES MODELS POINT TOWARD
A REGION OF INCREASING SBCAPES CLOSE TO 1K J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE DACKS TO INTRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST.
WHILE NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED /LIMITED SHEAR PROFILES AND
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES/...LIGHTNING WILL
POSE A HAZARD FOR THOSE ACROSS THE DACKS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND PRECIP...WE WILL LOWER AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND IN CLOSER ENSEMBLE APPROACH
OF THE MOS DATA.

FOR TONIGHT...RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS WE WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THE POPS/WX ACROSS THE
REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE TOO SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE FOR EVENING
ACTIVITIES AND NIGHT VIEW OF THE SKY IMPROVING. SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN MOIST WITH
A WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT/WINDS AND NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE OF AN
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. MOS NUMBERS ARE VERY CLOSE /IF
NOT IDENTICAL/ AS A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PER THE NCEP MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES /AND HUMIDITY/ AS H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID
TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE
70S AND LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO THE 80S /SUB 90F/ ON
MONDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY JULY SUNSHINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL AVERAGE MAINLY INTO THE
55-60F GENERAL RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE 00Z GFS IS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/GGEM REGARDING THE SPEED OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE GFS SUGGEST
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BOTH ON TUESDAY ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD/ALONG THE ACTUAL
BOUNDARY...WHILE THE GGEM/ECMWF ARE MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LOW
CHC POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HIGH CHC POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS LOOK FAIRLY WARM IN THE MID 80S FOR BOTH TUES/WED
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH MUGGY LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
VALLEY AREAS FOR BOTH MON AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY WINDING UP STALLING JUST SOUTH/EAST OF THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHC
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. IF THE FRONT IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE...IT COULD WIND UP JUST DRY EVERYWHERE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND LESS HUMID BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S FOR THURS/FRI...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COULD APPROACH THE REGION FOR SOME POINT NEXT
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

AS OF 1140Z...VFR CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES...BUT
AN AREA OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL NY AND NE PA THANKS TO AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS HEADED TOWARDS THE AREA.

THESE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO ARRIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. INITIALLY...THIS RAINFALL WILL BE FALLING OUT OF A MID
LEVEL DECK...AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH RATHER LIGHT
RAINFALL. EVENTUALLY...THE RAINFALL WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY AND
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR ALL SITES FOR THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN
THROUGH THE MID AFTN HOURS. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME IFR
CONDITIONS BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE TIMING/EXTENT OF THIS
TO OCCUR IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE SURFACE WIND WILL VARIABLE
TO SOUTH WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY ABOUT 20Z-22Z...ALTHOUGH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP SOME LOWER CIGS AROUND THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE CLOUDS MAY START TO DECREASE FOR LATE THIS
EVENING...AND IT IS A GOOD BET SOME BR MAY DEVELOP FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ESP KPSF/KGFL. THERE COULD EVEN BE
SOME IFR CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD AS WELL. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM
FOR TONIGHT AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING WET WEATHER PROBABILITIES THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WILL KEEP RH VALUES RATHER ELEVATED TO
BETWEEN 55-75 PERCENT. MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THEN GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF A PERIOD WITH WET CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WITH FORECAST QPF/S
RANGING FROM ONE-TENTH TO ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS /MAINLY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS/. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON FLOWS ON AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 041139
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
739 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL COINCIDE
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO BRING CLOUDS AND A PERIOD OF
WET WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO RETURN
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN/SHOWERS WAS
APPROACHING THE CATSKILLS WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. REGIONAL UPSTREAM RADAR MOSAIC
CONTINUES TO SHOW AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS CONTINUING TO
ADVANCE NORTHEAST. HRRR/RAP13 CONTINUES WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS OF
MOVING THE WET CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. SO LITTLE ENHANCEMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
WITH MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

AS OF 400 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS EARLY INDEPENDENCE MORNING
REVEALS AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF
NORTH AMERICA WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND OHIO VALLEY. A CLOSER EXAMINATION SHOWS A STRENGTHENING
MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET PER THE GOES SATELLITE HIGH DENSITY WIND
MAGNITUDES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WESTERN NY. THE DIVERGENCE
ALOFT HAS RESULTED IN AN EXPANDING AREA OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PA
NOW APPROACHING SOUTH-CENTRAL NY /SOUTHERN TIER/. TRENDS AND THE
LATEST RAP13/HRRR SUGGEST THIS RAINFALL WILL MOVE INTO OUR
SOUTHWEST ZONES /CATSKILLS/ SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND SPREAD
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FGEN FORCING
ALONG WITH DEFORMATION DYNAMICS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALL POINT
TOWARD RAISING POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN 2/3RDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...AS THE COASTAL LOW INTENSIFIES...THE
UPPER DYNAMICS QUICKLY TRACK TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WITH A DECREASE
IN COVERAGE OF THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AROUND 21Z. YET THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE WAS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. HERE THE RAINFALL FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY IS NOT EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THESE AREAS TOO MUCH AND MAY ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
INSOLATION BEFORE THIS WAVE APPROACHES. HIRES MODELS POINT TOWARD
A REGION OF INCREASING SBCAPES CLOSE TO 1K J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE DACKS TO INTRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST.
WHILE NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED /LIMITED SHEAR PROFILES AND
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES/...LIGHTNING WILL
POSE A HAZARD FOR THOSE ACROSS THE DACKS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND PRECIP...WE WILL LOWER AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND IN CLOSER ENSEMBLE APPROACH
OF THE MOS DATA.

FOR TONIGHT...RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS WE WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THE POPS/WX ACROSS THE
REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE TOO SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE FOR EVENING
ACTIVITIES AND NIGHT VIEW OF THE SKY IMPROVING. SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN MOIST WITH
A WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT/WINDS AND NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE OF AN
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. MOS NUMBERS ARE VERY CLOSE /IF
NOT IDENTICAL/ AS A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PER THE NCEP MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES /AND HUMIDITY/ AS H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID
TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE
70S AND LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO THE 80S /SUB 90F/ ON
MONDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY JULY SUNSHINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL AVERAGE MAINLY INTO THE
55-60F GENERAL RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE 00Z GFS IS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/GGEM REGARDING THE SPEED OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE GFS SUGGEST
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BOTH ON TUESDAY ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD/ALONG THE ACTUAL
BOUNDARY...WHILE THE GGEM/ECMWF ARE MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LOW
CHC POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HIGH CHC POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS LOOK FAIRLY WARM IN THE MID 80S FOR BOTH TUES/WED
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH MUGGY LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
VALLEY AREAS FOR BOTH MON AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY WINDING UP STALLING JUST SOUTH/EAST OF THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHC
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. IF THE FRONT IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE...IT COULD WIND UP JUST DRY EVERYWHERE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND LESS HUMID BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S FOR THURS/FRI...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COULD APPROACH THE REGION FOR SOME POINT NEXT
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

AS OF 1140Z...VFR CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES...BUT
AN AREA OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL NY AND NE PA THANKS TO AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS HEADED TOWARDS THE AREA.

THESE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO ARRIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. INITIALLY...THIS RAINFALL WILL BE FALLING OUT OF A MID
LEVEL DECK...AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH RATHER LIGHT
RAINFALL. EVENTUALLY...THE RAINFALL WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY AND
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR ALL SITES FOR THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN
THROUGH THE MID AFTN HOURS. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME IFR
CONDITIONS BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE TIMING/EXTENT OF THIS
TO OCCUR IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE SURFACE WIND WILL VARIABLE
TO SOUTH WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY ABOUT 20Z-22Z...ALTHOUGH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP SOME LOWER CIGS AROUND THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE CLOUDS MAY START TO DECREASE FOR LATE THIS
EVENING...AND IT IS A GOOD BET SOME BR MAY DEVELOP FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ESP KPSF/KGFL. THERE COULD EVEN BE
SOME IFR CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD AS WELL. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM
FOR TONIGHT AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING WET WEATHER PROBABILITIES THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WILL KEEP RH VALUES RATHER ELEVATED TO
BETWEEN 55-75 PERCENT. MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THEN GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF A PERIOD WITH WET CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WITH FORECAST QPF/S
RANGING FROM ONE-TENTH TO ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS /MAINLY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS/. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON FLOWS ON AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 041133
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
733 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED
IN NATURE. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 70S TODAY WITH MORE
CLOUDS...BUT WILL BE WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH EXPECTED SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 706 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPDATED FCST TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT ZONES TO 70 TO 80% BASED ON LATEST RADAR
AND HRRR DATA. RADAR SHOWS A RATHER LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN MOVING TOWARD RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THIS RAIN WILL WEAKEN SOME AS IT ENCOUNTERS
A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER OUR CWA...BUT GIVEN FLOW ALOFT...JET
ORIENTATION AND MAGITUDE OF 5H VORT...THINKING MEASURABLE PRECIP
IS VERY LIKELY ACROSS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THIS RAIN WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER INTERESTING AREA TO WATCH IS SLV/WESTERN
DACKS...AS LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING
WITH EVEN A LIGHTNING STRIKE OCCURRING IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
MINUTES. HAVE MENTION CHC POPS BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER
OUT OF FCST ATTM...DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY OVER OUR CWA.
OTHER ADJUSTMENT IS TO LOWER TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS.

FCST CHALLENGE THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIP
AND AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS. 00Z ALBANY SOUNDING SHOWS A
DEEP DRY LAYER FROM 850 TO 300MB WITH PW VALUE OF ONLY 0.49".
HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE CONTS TO STREAM QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE NE CONUS...AHEAD OF S/W
TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG 25H JET. IN ADDITION...TO
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO OUR CWA...WATER VAPOR SHOWS EMBEDDED 5H
VORT IN THE FAST PROGRESSIVELY FLW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL OHIO. USING
THE RADAR AND COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGS OFF THE HRRR THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL PA INTO NY WILL
ADVECT NE INTO OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE WEAKENING DUE TO
DRY AIR ALOFT. BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE QPF WILL BE SOUTH OF A
SLK TO BTV TO MPV LINE THIS MORNING...WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS
GENERALLY < 0.10 ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES. WILL INCREASE
POPS AND MENTION LIKELY (60%) ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TWO COUNTIES AND
TAPER TO NIL NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MEANWHILE...THIS
AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. GFS/NAM AND LOCAL
MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF
THUNDER DEVELOPING OVER THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS AFTER 18Z.
INTERESTING THE LOCAL MODELS SHOW A WEAK LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
ON EDGE OF CLOUD DECK...WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND
800 J/KG. THINKING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SLV/WESTERN DACKS BTWN 18Z- 21Z...AND MOVE EASTWARD TWD THE CPV
VALLEY AROUND 00Z...AND THRU CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY BY 03Z. HAVE
MENTIONED HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS TO COVER THIS SCENARIO LATER
TODAY...WITH QPF GENERALLY BTWN A TRACE TO 0.25" IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH A VARIETY OF CLOUDS LEVELS
EXPECTED...WHICH WILL HOLD VALUES MAINLY IN THE 70S. A FEW HIGHER
VALUES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SLV WHERE MORE SUN IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...NORTHERN STREAM 5H VORT WILL SWING
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WHILE RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE QUICKLY SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE BY 06Z. ANY
SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN OR BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...INCLUDING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. GIVEN TIMING
OF SHOWERS...SOME EVENING ACTIVITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE HOLIDAY
MAYBE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CPV VALLEY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN VT BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. EXPECT AREAS OF CLEARING TO
DEVELOP AFT 06Z WITH 1021MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO OUR CWA.
SOME PATCHY FOG/BR IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE DEEPER/PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS OF THE DACKS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLEARING...MAINLY 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO MID/UPPER
50S CPV.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NE CONUS
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES. STILL NOTICING ANOTHER 5H VORT IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IMPACTING NORTHERN VT BTWN 18Z-00Z SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
NEAR 12C....SUPPORT LOWER 70S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 80F WARMER VALLEYS ON
SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12C AND 14C...SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S
MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY... A HINT OF SUMMER NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE. THEREAFTER...STILL LOTS
OF QUESTIONS/DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT THAT
DELIVERS OUR SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE/WED.

REST OF DISCUSSION TAKEN FROM DAYSHIFT AS SAME ISSUES/QUESTIONS OF
PAST FEW DAYS.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON MONDAY BRINGING TEMPS IN THE 80S WITH 850
TEMPS RISING TO 14-15C WILL BE PUSHING EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE.

MODELS SIMILARLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY (1000-2000J/KG
CAPE) ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO THAT WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS SO TEMPS AGAIN IN THE MID 80S.

WHERE MODELS DIFFER IS ON HOW FAST THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
WITH GFS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW
UPPER TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH, SO NOT EXPECTING A DEEPENING
TROF LIKE WE`VE HAD LATELY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES, SO WENT WITH
A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING
AROUND ON WED. TEMPS A BIT COOLER ON WED.

SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THU-FRI AS FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY
WESTERLY WITH WEAK TROFFING SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (80/60).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASING AND THICKENING WITH SOME
SCT SHOWERS DURING THE DAY BUT DRY AT NIGHT. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN...MAINLY VFR.
MON...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LCL LIFR FG PSBL KMPV/KSLK.
TUE..MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT.
WED...MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR POST FRONTAL -SHRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KBTV 041133
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
733 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED
IN NATURE. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 70S TODAY WITH MORE
CLOUDS...BUT WILL BE WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH EXPECTED SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 706 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPDATED FCST TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT ZONES TO 70 TO 80% BASED ON LATEST RADAR
AND HRRR DATA. RADAR SHOWS A RATHER LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN MOVING TOWARD RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THIS RAIN WILL WEAKEN SOME AS IT ENCOUNTERS
A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER OUR CWA...BUT GIVEN FLOW ALOFT...JET
ORIENTATION AND MAGITUDE OF 5H VORT...THINKING MEASURABLE PRECIP
IS VERY LIKELY ACROSS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THIS RAIN WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER INTERESTING AREA TO WATCH IS SLV/WESTERN
DACKS...AS LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING
WITH EVEN A LIGHTNING STRIKE OCCURRING IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
MINUTES. HAVE MENTION CHC POPS BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER
OUT OF FCST ATTM...DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY OVER OUR CWA.
OTHER ADJUSTMENT IS TO LOWER TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS.

FCST CHALLENGE THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIP
AND AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS. 00Z ALBANY SOUNDING SHOWS A
DEEP DRY LAYER FROM 850 TO 300MB WITH PW VALUE OF ONLY 0.49".
HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE CONTS TO STREAM QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE NE CONUS...AHEAD OF S/W
TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG 25H JET. IN ADDITION...TO
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO OUR CWA...WATER VAPOR SHOWS EMBEDDED 5H
VORT IN THE FAST PROGRESSIVELY FLW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL OHIO. USING
THE RADAR AND COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGS OFF THE HRRR THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL PA INTO NY WILL
ADVECT NE INTO OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE WEAKENING DUE TO
DRY AIR ALOFT. BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE QPF WILL BE SOUTH OF A
SLK TO BTV TO MPV LINE THIS MORNING...WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS
GENERALLY < 0.10 ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES. WILL INCREASE
POPS AND MENTION LIKELY (60%) ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TWO COUNTIES AND
TAPER TO NIL NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MEANWHILE...THIS
AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. GFS/NAM AND LOCAL
MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF
THUNDER DEVELOPING OVER THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS AFTER 18Z.
INTERESTING THE LOCAL MODELS SHOW A WEAK LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
ON EDGE OF CLOUD DECK...WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND
800 J/KG. THINKING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SLV/WESTERN DACKS BTWN 18Z- 21Z...AND MOVE EASTWARD TWD THE CPV
VALLEY AROUND 00Z...AND THRU CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY BY 03Z. HAVE
MENTIONED HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS TO COVER THIS SCENARIO LATER
TODAY...WITH QPF GENERALLY BTWN A TRACE TO 0.25" IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH A VARIETY OF CLOUDS LEVELS
EXPECTED...WHICH WILL HOLD VALUES MAINLY IN THE 70S. A FEW HIGHER
VALUES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SLV WHERE MORE SUN IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...NORTHERN STREAM 5H VORT WILL SWING
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WHILE RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE QUICKLY SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE BY 06Z. ANY
SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN OR BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...INCLUDING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. GIVEN TIMING
OF SHOWERS...SOME EVENING ACTIVITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE HOLIDAY
MAYBE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CPV VALLEY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN VT BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. EXPECT AREAS OF CLEARING TO
DEVELOP AFT 06Z WITH 1021MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO OUR CWA.
SOME PATCHY FOG/BR IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE DEEPER/PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS OF THE DACKS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLEARING...MAINLY 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO MID/UPPER
50S CPV.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NE CONUS
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES. STILL NOTICING ANOTHER 5H VORT IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IMPACTING NORTHERN VT BTWN 18Z-00Z SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
NEAR 12C....SUPPORT LOWER 70S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 80F WARMER VALLEYS ON
SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12C AND 14C...SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S
MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY... A HINT OF SUMMER NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE. THEREAFTER...STILL LOTS
OF QUESTIONS/DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT THAT
DELIVERS OUR SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE/WED.

REST OF DISCUSSION TAKEN FROM DAYSHIFT AS SAME ISSUES/QUESTIONS OF
PAST FEW DAYS.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON MONDAY BRINGING TEMPS IN THE 80S WITH 850
TEMPS RISING TO 14-15C WILL BE PUSHING EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE.

MODELS SIMILARLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY (1000-2000J/KG
CAPE) ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO THAT WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS SO TEMPS AGAIN IN THE MID 80S.

WHERE MODELS DIFFER IS ON HOW FAST THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
WITH GFS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW
UPPER TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH, SO NOT EXPECTING A DEEPENING
TROF LIKE WE`VE HAD LATELY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES, SO WENT WITH
A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING
AROUND ON WED. TEMPS A BIT COOLER ON WED.

SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THU-FRI AS FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY
WESTERLY WITH WEAK TROFFING SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (80/60).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...CLOUDS INCREASING AND THICKENING WITH SOME
SCT SHOWERS DURING THE DAY BUT DRY AT NIGHT. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUN...MAINLY VFR.
MON...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LCL LIFR FG PSBL KMPV/KSLK.
TUE..MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT.
WED...MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR POST FRONTAL -SHRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KBTV 041114
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
714 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED
IN NATURE. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 70S TODAY WITH MORE
CLOUDS...BUT WILL BE WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH EXPECTED SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 706 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPDATED FCST TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT ZONES TO 70 TO 80% BASED ON LATEST RADAR
AND HRRR DATA. RADAR SHOWS A RATHER LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN MOVING TOWARD RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THIS RAIN WILL WEAKEN SOME AS IT ENCOUNTERS
A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER OUR CWA...BUT GIVEN FLOW ALOFT...JET
ORIENTATION AND MAGITUDE OF 5H VORT...THINKING MEASURABLE PRECIP
IS VERY LIKELY ACROSS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THIS RAIN WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER INTERESTING AREA TO WATCH IS SLV/WESTERN
DACKS...AS LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING
WITH EVEN A LIGHTNING STRIKE OCCURRING IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
MINUTES. HAVE MENTION CHC POPS BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER
OUT OF FCST ATTM...DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY OVER OUR CWA.
OTHER ADJUSTMENT IS TO LOWER TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS.

FCST CHALLENGE THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIP
AND AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS. 00Z ALBANY SOUNDING SHOWS A
DEEP DRY LAYER FROM 850 TO 300MB WITH PW VALUE OF ONLY 0.49".
HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE CONTS TO STREAM QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE NE CONUS...AHEAD OF S/W
TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG 25H JET. IN ADDITION...TO
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO OUR CWA...WATER VAPOR SHOWS EMBEDDED 5H
VORT IN THE FAST PROGRESSIVELY FLW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL OHIO. USING
THE RADAR AND COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGS OFF THE HRRR THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL PA INTO NY WILL
ADVECT NE INTO OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE WEAKENING DUE TO
DRY AIR ALOFT. BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE QPF WILL BE SOUTH OF A
SLK TO BTV TO MPV LINE THIS MORNING...WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS
GENERALLY < 0.10 ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES. WILL INCREASE
POPS AND MENTION LIKELY (60%) ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TWO COUNTIES AND
TAPER TO NIL NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MEANWHILE...THIS
AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. GFS/NAM AND LOCAL
MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF
THUNDER DEVELOPING OVER THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS AFTER 18Z.
INTERESTING THE LOCAL MODELS SHOW A WEAK LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
ON EDGE OF CLOUD DECK...WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND
800 J/KG. THINKING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SLV/WESTERN DACKS BTWN 18Z- 21Z...AND MOVE EASTWARD TWD THE CPV
VALLEY AROUND 00Z...AND THRU CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY BY 03Z. HAVE
MENTIONED HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS TO COVER THIS SCENARIO LATER
TODAY...WITH QPF GENERALLY BTWN A TRACE TO 0.25" IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH A VARIETY OF CLOUDS LEVELS
EXPECTED...WHICH WILL HOLD VALUES MAINLY IN THE 70S. A FEW HIGHER
VALUES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SLV WHERE MORE SUN IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...NORTHERN STREAM 5H VORT WILL SWING
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WHILE RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE QUICKLY SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE BY 06Z. ANY
SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN OR BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...INCLUDING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. GIVEN TIMING
OF SHOWERS...SOME EVENING ACTIVITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE HOLIDAY
MAYBE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CPV VALLEY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN VT BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. EXPECT AREAS OF CLEARING TO
DEVELOP AFT 06Z WITH 1021MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO OUR CWA.
SOME PATCHY FOG/BR IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE DEEPER/PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS OF THE DACKS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLEARING...MAINLY 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO MID/UPPER
50S CPV.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NE CONUS
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES. STILL NOTICING ANOTHER 5H VORT IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IMPACTING NORTHERN VT BTWN 18Z-00Z SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
NEAR 12C....SUPPORT LOWER 70S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 80F WARMER VALLEYS ON
SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12C AND 14C...SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S
MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY... A HINT OF SUMMER NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE. THEREAFTER...STILL LOTS
OF QUESTIONS/DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT THAT
DELIVERS OUR SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE/WED.

REST OF DISCUSSION TAKEN FROM DAYSHIFT AS SAME ISSUES/QUESTIONS OF
PAST FEW DAYS.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON MONDAY BRINGING TEMPS IN THE 80S WITH 850
TEMPS RISING TO 14-15C WILL BE PUSHING EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE.

MODELS SIMILARLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY (1000-2000J/KG
CAPE) ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO THAT WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS SO TEMPS AGAIN IN THE MID 80S.

WHERE MODELS DIFFER IS ON HOW FAST THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
WITH GFS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW
UPPER TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH, SO NOT EXPECTING A DEEPENING
TROF LIKE WE`VE HAD LATELY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES, SO WENT WITH
A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING
AROUND ON WED. TEMPS A BIT COOLER ON WED.

SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THU-FRI AS FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY
WESTERLY WITH WEAK TROFFING SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (80/60).

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME IFR/LIFR FOG/BR EARLY THIS MORNING
AT MPV/SLK. WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS THROUGH
TODAY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF FOG/BR WILL LIKELY DEVELOP 08Z-11Z AT MPV/SLK...BUT
DENSITY AND COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR BRIEF THUNDERSTORM MAY ALSO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
LEFT OUT FOR NOW AS COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 7-10 KNOTS
AT RUT) TURN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISLD MVFR -SHRA OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MON...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LCL LIFR FG PSBL
KMPV/KSLK. TUE..MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE
NIGHT. WED...MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR POST FRONTAL -SHRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KBTV 041114
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
714 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED
IN NATURE. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 70S TODAY WITH MORE
CLOUDS...BUT WILL BE WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH EXPECTED SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 706 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPDATED FCST TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT ZONES TO 70 TO 80% BASED ON LATEST RADAR
AND HRRR DATA. RADAR SHOWS A RATHER LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN MOVING TOWARD RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THIS RAIN WILL WEAKEN SOME AS IT ENCOUNTERS
A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER OUR CWA...BUT GIVEN FLOW ALOFT...JET
ORIENTATION AND MAGITUDE OF 5H VORT...THINKING MEASURABLE PRECIP
IS VERY LIKELY ACROSS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THIS RAIN WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER INTERESTING AREA TO WATCH IS SLV/WESTERN
DACKS...AS LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING
WITH EVEN A LIGHTNING STRIKE OCCURRING IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
MINUTES. HAVE MENTION CHC POPS BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER
OUT OF FCST ATTM...DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY OVER OUR CWA.
OTHER ADJUSTMENT IS TO LOWER TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS.

FCST CHALLENGE THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIP
AND AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS. 00Z ALBANY SOUNDING SHOWS A
DEEP DRY LAYER FROM 850 TO 300MB WITH PW VALUE OF ONLY 0.49".
HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE CONTS TO STREAM QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE NE CONUS...AHEAD OF S/W
TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG 25H JET. IN ADDITION...TO
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO OUR CWA...WATER VAPOR SHOWS EMBEDDED 5H
VORT IN THE FAST PROGRESSIVELY FLW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL OHIO. USING
THE RADAR AND COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGS OFF THE HRRR THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL PA INTO NY WILL
ADVECT NE INTO OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE WEAKENING DUE TO
DRY AIR ALOFT. BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE QPF WILL BE SOUTH OF A
SLK TO BTV TO MPV LINE THIS MORNING...WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS
GENERALLY < 0.10 ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES. WILL INCREASE
POPS AND MENTION LIKELY (60%) ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TWO COUNTIES AND
TAPER TO NIL NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MEANWHILE...THIS
AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. GFS/NAM AND LOCAL
MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF
THUNDER DEVELOPING OVER THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS AFTER 18Z.
INTERESTING THE LOCAL MODELS SHOW A WEAK LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
ON EDGE OF CLOUD DECK...WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND
800 J/KG. THINKING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SLV/WESTERN DACKS BTWN 18Z- 21Z...AND MOVE EASTWARD TWD THE CPV
VALLEY AROUND 00Z...AND THRU CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY BY 03Z. HAVE
MENTIONED HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS TO COVER THIS SCENARIO LATER
TODAY...WITH QPF GENERALLY BTWN A TRACE TO 0.25" IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH A VARIETY OF CLOUDS LEVELS
EXPECTED...WHICH WILL HOLD VALUES MAINLY IN THE 70S. A FEW HIGHER
VALUES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SLV WHERE MORE SUN IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...NORTHERN STREAM 5H VORT WILL SWING
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WHILE RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE QUICKLY SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE BY 06Z. ANY
SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN OR BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...INCLUDING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. GIVEN TIMING
OF SHOWERS...SOME EVENING ACTIVITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE HOLIDAY
MAYBE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CPV VALLEY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN VT BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. EXPECT AREAS OF CLEARING TO
DEVELOP AFT 06Z WITH 1021MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO OUR CWA.
SOME PATCHY FOG/BR IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE DEEPER/PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS OF THE DACKS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLEARING...MAINLY 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO MID/UPPER
50S CPV.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NE CONUS
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES. STILL NOTICING ANOTHER 5H VORT IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IMPACTING NORTHERN VT BTWN 18Z-00Z SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
NEAR 12C....SUPPORT LOWER 70S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 80F WARMER VALLEYS ON
SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12C AND 14C...SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S
MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY... A HINT OF SUMMER NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE. THEREAFTER...STILL LOTS
OF QUESTIONS/DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT THAT
DELIVERS OUR SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE/WED.

REST OF DISCUSSION TAKEN FROM DAYSHIFT AS SAME ISSUES/QUESTIONS OF
PAST FEW DAYS.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON MONDAY BRINGING TEMPS IN THE 80S WITH 850
TEMPS RISING TO 14-15C WILL BE PUSHING EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE.

MODELS SIMILARLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY (1000-2000J/KG
CAPE) ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO THAT WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS SO TEMPS AGAIN IN THE MID 80S.

WHERE MODELS DIFFER IS ON HOW FAST THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
WITH GFS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW
UPPER TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH, SO NOT EXPECTING A DEEPENING
TROF LIKE WE`VE HAD LATELY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES, SO WENT WITH
A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING
AROUND ON WED. TEMPS A BIT COOLER ON WED.

SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THU-FRI AS FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY
WESTERLY WITH WEAK TROFFING SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (80/60).

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME IFR/LIFR FOG/BR EARLY THIS MORNING
AT MPV/SLK. WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS THROUGH
TODAY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF FOG/BR WILL LIKELY DEVELOP 08Z-11Z AT MPV/SLK...BUT
DENSITY AND COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR BRIEF THUNDERSTORM MAY ALSO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
LEFT OUT FOR NOW AS COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 7-10 KNOTS
AT RUT) TURN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISLD MVFR -SHRA OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MON...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LCL LIFR FG PSBL
KMPV/KSLK. TUE..MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE
NIGHT. WED...MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR POST FRONTAL -SHRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KALY 041041
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
641 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL COINCIDE
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO BRING CLOUDS AND A PERIOD OF
WET WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO RETURN
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN/SHOWERS WAS
APPROACHING THE CATSKILLS WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. REGIONAL UPSTREAM RADAR MOSAIC
CONTINUES TO SHOW AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS CONTINUING TO
ADVANCE NORTHEAST. HRRR/RAP13 CONTINUES WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS OF
MOVING THE WET CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. SO LITTLE ENHANCEMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
WITH MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

AS OF 400 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS EARLY INDEPENDENCE MORNING
REVEALS AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF
NOAM WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
OHIO VALLEY. A CLOSER EXAMINATION SHOWS A STRENGTHENING MID TO UPPER
LEVEL JET PER THE GOES SATELLITE HIGH DENSITY WIND MAGNITUDES
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WESTERN NY. THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT HAS
RESULTED IN AN EXPANDING AREA OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PA NOW
APPROACHING SOUTH-CENTRAL NY /SOUTHERN TIER/. TRENDS AND THE
LATEST RAP13/HRRR SUGGEST THIS RAINFALL WILL MOVE INTO OUR
SOUTHWEST ZONES /CATSKILLS/ SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND SPREAD
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FGEN FORCING
ALONG WITH DEFORMATION DYNAMICS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALL POINT
TOWARD RAISING POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN 2/3RDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...AS THE COASTAL LOW INTENSIFIES...THE
UPPER DYNAMICS QUICKLY TRACK TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WITH A
DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AROUND 21Z.
YET THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WAS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. HERE THE RAINFALL FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THESE AREAS TOO MUCH AND MAY ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL INSOLATION BEFORE THIS WAVE APPROACHES. HIRES MODELS
POINT TOWARD A REGION OF INCREASING SBCAPES CLOSE TO 1K J/KG
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO INTRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE FORECAST. WHILE NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED /LIMITED
SHEAR PROFILES AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND MARGINAL LAPSE
RATES/...LIGHTNING WILL POSE A HAZARD FOR THOSE ACROSS THE DACKS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND PRECIP...WE
WILL LOWER AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND IN
CLOSER ENSEMBLE APPROACH OF THE MOS DATA.

FOR TONIGHT...RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS WE WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THE POPS/WX ACROSS THE
REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE TOO SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE FOR EVENING
ACTIVITIES AND NIGHT VIEW OF THE SKY IMPROVING. SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN MOIST WITH
A WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT/WINDS AND NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE OF AN
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. MOS NUMBERS ARE VERY CLOSE /IF
NOT IDENTICAL/ AS A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PER THE NCEP MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES /AND HUMIDITY/ AS H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID
TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE
70S AND LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO THE 80S /SUB 90F/ ON
MONDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY JULY SUNSHINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL AVERAGE MAINLY INTO THE
55-60F GENERAL RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE 00Z GFS IS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/GGEM REGARDING THE SPEED OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE GFS SUGGEST
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BOTH ON TUESDAY ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD/ALONG THE ACTUAL
BOUNDARY...WHILE THE GGEM/ECMWF ARE MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LOW
CHC POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HIGH CHC POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS LOOK FAIRLY WARM IN THE MID 80S FOR BOTH TUES/WED
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH MUGGY LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
VALLEY AREAS FOR BOTH MON AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY WINDING UP STALLING JUST SOUTH/EAST OF THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHC
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. IF THE FRONT IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE...IT COULD WIND UP JUST DRY EVERYWHERE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND LESS HUMID BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S FOR THURS/FRI...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COULD APPROACH THE REGION FOR SOME POINT NEXT
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES...BUT AN AREA
OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL NY AND NE PA THANKS TO AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS HEADED TOWARDS THE AREA.

THESE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO ARRIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
INITIALLY...THIS RAINFALL WILL BE FALLING OUT OF A MID LEVEL
DECK...AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH RATHER LIGHT RAINFALL.
EVENTUALLY...THE RAINFALL WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY AND THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE FOR ALL SITES FOR THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN THROUGH THE
MID AFTN HOURS. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME IFR CONDITIONS BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE TIMING/EXTENT OF THIS TO OCCUR IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BECOME S-SW...BUT SPEEDS LOOK VERY
LIGHT...GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY ABOUT 20Z-22Z...ALTHOUGH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP SOME LOWER CIGS AROUND THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE CLOUDS MAY START TO DECREASE FOR LATE THIS
EVENING...AND SOME BR MAY DEVELOP IN A FEW SPOTS FOR LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ESP KPSF/KGFL. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME IFR
CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD AS WELL. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM FOR SAT
NIGHT AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING WET WEATHER PROBABILITIES THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WILL KEEP RH VALUES RATHER ELEVATED TO
BETWEEN 55-75 PERCENT. MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THEN GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF A PERIOD WITH WET CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WITH FORECAST QPF/S
RANGING FROM ONE-TENTH TO ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS /MAINLY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS/. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON FLOWS ON AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 041041
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
641 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL COINCIDE
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO BRING CLOUDS AND A PERIOD OF
WET WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO RETURN
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN/SHOWERS WAS
APPROACHING THE CATSKILLS WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. REGIONAL UPSTREAM RADAR MOSAIC
CONTINUES TO SHOW AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS CONTINUING TO
ADVANCE NORTHEAST. HRRR/RAP13 CONTINUES WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS OF
MOVING THE WET CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. SO LITTLE ENHANCEMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
WITH MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

AS OF 400 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS EARLY INDEPENDENCE MORNING
REVEALS AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF
NOAM WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
OHIO VALLEY. A CLOSER EXAMINATION SHOWS A STRENGTHENING MID TO UPPER
LEVEL JET PER THE GOES SATELLITE HIGH DENSITY WIND MAGNITUDES
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WESTERN NY. THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT HAS
RESULTED IN AN EXPANDING AREA OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PA NOW
APPROACHING SOUTH-CENTRAL NY /SOUTHERN TIER/. TRENDS AND THE
LATEST RAP13/HRRR SUGGEST THIS RAINFALL WILL MOVE INTO OUR
SOUTHWEST ZONES /CATSKILLS/ SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND SPREAD
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FGEN FORCING
ALONG WITH DEFORMATION DYNAMICS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALL POINT
TOWARD RAISING POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN 2/3RDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...AS THE COASTAL LOW INTENSIFIES...THE
UPPER DYNAMICS QUICKLY TRACK TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WITH A
DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AROUND 21Z.
YET THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WAS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. HERE THE RAINFALL FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THESE AREAS TOO MUCH AND MAY ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL INSOLATION BEFORE THIS WAVE APPROACHES. HIRES MODELS
POINT TOWARD A REGION OF INCREASING SBCAPES CLOSE TO 1K J/KG
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO INTRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE FORECAST. WHILE NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED /LIMITED
SHEAR PROFILES AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND MARGINAL LAPSE
RATES/...LIGHTNING WILL POSE A HAZARD FOR THOSE ACROSS THE DACKS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND PRECIP...WE
WILL LOWER AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND IN
CLOSER ENSEMBLE APPROACH OF THE MOS DATA.

FOR TONIGHT...RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS WE WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THE POPS/WX ACROSS THE
REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE TOO SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE FOR EVENING
ACTIVITIES AND NIGHT VIEW OF THE SKY IMPROVING. SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN MOIST WITH
A WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT/WINDS AND NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE OF AN
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. MOS NUMBERS ARE VERY CLOSE /IF
NOT IDENTICAL/ AS A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PER THE NCEP MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES /AND HUMIDITY/ AS H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID
TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE
70S AND LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO THE 80S /SUB 90F/ ON
MONDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY JULY SUNSHINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL AVERAGE MAINLY INTO THE
55-60F GENERAL RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE 00Z GFS IS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/GGEM REGARDING THE SPEED OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE GFS SUGGEST
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BOTH ON TUESDAY ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD/ALONG THE ACTUAL
BOUNDARY...WHILE THE GGEM/ECMWF ARE MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LOW
CHC POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HIGH CHC POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS LOOK FAIRLY WARM IN THE MID 80S FOR BOTH TUES/WED
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH MUGGY LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
VALLEY AREAS FOR BOTH MON AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY WINDING UP STALLING JUST SOUTH/EAST OF THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHC
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. IF THE FRONT IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE...IT COULD WIND UP JUST DRY EVERYWHERE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND LESS HUMID BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S FOR THURS/FRI...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COULD APPROACH THE REGION FOR SOME POINT NEXT
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES...BUT AN AREA
OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL NY AND NE PA THANKS TO AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS HEADED TOWARDS THE AREA.

THESE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO ARRIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
INITIALLY...THIS RAINFALL WILL BE FALLING OUT OF A MID LEVEL
DECK...AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH RATHER LIGHT RAINFALL.
EVENTUALLY...THE RAINFALL WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY AND THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE FOR ALL SITES FOR THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN THROUGH THE
MID AFTN HOURS. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME IFR CONDITIONS BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE TIMING/EXTENT OF THIS TO OCCUR IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BECOME S-SW...BUT SPEEDS LOOK VERY
LIGHT...GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY ABOUT 20Z-22Z...ALTHOUGH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP SOME LOWER CIGS AROUND THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE CLOUDS MAY START TO DECREASE FOR LATE THIS
EVENING...AND SOME BR MAY DEVELOP IN A FEW SPOTS FOR LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ESP KPSF/KGFL. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME IFR
CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD AS WELL. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM FOR SAT
NIGHT AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING WET WEATHER PROBABILITIES THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WILL KEEP RH VALUES RATHER ELEVATED TO
BETWEEN 55-75 PERCENT. MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THEN GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF A PERIOD WITH WET CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WITH FORECAST QPF/S
RANGING FROM ONE-TENTH TO ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS /MAINLY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS/. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON FLOWS ON AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 041041
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
641 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL COINCIDE
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO BRING CLOUDS AND A PERIOD OF
WET WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO RETURN
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN/SHOWERS WAS
APPROACHING THE CATSKILLS WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. REGIONAL UPSTREAM RADAR MOSAIC
CONTINUES TO SHOW AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS CONTINUING TO
ADVANCE NORTHEAST. HRRR/RAP13 CONTINUES WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS OF
MOVING THE WET CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. SO LITTLE ENHANCEMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
WITH MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

AS OF 400 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS EARLY INDEPENDENCE MORNING
REVEALS AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF
NOAM WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
OHIO VALLEY. A CLOSER EXAMINATION SHOWS A STRENGTHENING MID TO UPPER
LEVEL JET PER THE GOES SATELLITE HIGH DENSITY WIND MAGNITUDES
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WESTERN NY. THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT HAS
RESULTED IN AN EXPANDING AREA OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PA NOW
APPROACHING SOUTH-CENTRAL NY /SOUTHERN TIER/. TRENDS AND THE
LATEST RAP13/HRRR SUGGEST THIS RAINFALL WILL MOVE INTO OUR
SOUTHWEST ZONES /CATSKILLS/ SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND SPREAD
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FGEN FORCING
ALONG WITH DEFORMATION DYNAMICS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALL POINT
TOWARD RAISING POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN 2/3RDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...AS THE COASTAL LOW INTENSIFIES...THE
UPPER DYNAMICS QUICKLY TRACK TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WITH A
DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AROUND 21Z.
YET THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WAS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. HERE THE RAINFALL FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THESE AREAS TOO MUCH AND MAY ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL INSOLATION BEFORE THIS WAVE APPROACHES. HIRES MODELS
POINT TOWARD A REGION OF INCREASING SBCAPES CLOSE TO 1K J/KG
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO INTRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE FORECAST. WHILE NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED /LIMITED
SHEAR PROFILES AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND MARGINAL LAPSE
RATES/...LIGHTNING WILL POSE A HAZARD FOR THOSE ACROSS THE DACKS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND PRECIP...WE
WILL LOWER AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND IN
CLOSER ENSEMBLE APPROACH OF THE MOS DATA.

FOR TONIGHT...RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS WE WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THE POPS/WX ACROSS THE
REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE TOO SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE FOR EVENING
ACTIVITIES AND NIGHT VIEW OF THE SKY IMPROVING. SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN MOIST WITH
A WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT/WINDS AND NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE OF AN
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. MOS NUMBERS ARE VERY CLOSE /IF
NOT IDENTICAL/ AS A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PER THE NCEP MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES /AND HUMIDITY/ AS H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID
TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE
70S AND LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO THE 80S /SUB 90F/ ON
MONDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY JULY SUNSHINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL AVERAGE MAINLY INTO THE
55-60F GENERAL RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE 00Z GFS IS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/GGEM REGARDING THE SPEED OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE GFS SUGGEST
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BOTH ON TUESDAY ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD/ALONG THE ACTUAL
BOUNDARY...WHILE THE GGEM/ECMWF ARE MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LOW
CHC POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HIGH CHC POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS LOOK FAIRLY WARM IN THE MID 80S FOR BOTH TUES/WED
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH MUGGY LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
VALLEY AREAS FOR BOTH MON AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY WINDING UP STALLING JUST SOUTH/EAST OF THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHC
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. IF THE FRONT IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE...IT COULD WIND UP JUST DRY EVERYWHERE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND LESS HUMID BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S FOR THURS/FRI...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COULD APPROACH THE REGION FOR SOME POINT NEXT
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES...BUT AN AREA
OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL NY AND NE PA THANKS TO AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS HEADED TOWARDS THE AREA.

THESE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO ARRIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
INITIALLY...THIS RAINFALL WILL BE FALLING OUT OF A MID LEVEL
DECK...AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH RATHER LIGHT RAINFALL.
EVENTUALLY...THE RAINFALL WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY AND THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE FOR ALL SITES FOR THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN THROUGH THE
MID AFTN HOURS. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME IFR CONDITIONS BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE TIMING/EXTENT OF THIS TO OCCUR IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BECOME S-SW...BUT SPEEDS LOOK VERY
LIGHT...GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY ABOUT 20Z-22Z...ALTHOUGH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP SOME LOWER CIGS AROUND THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE CLOUDS MAY START TO DECREASE FOR LATE THIS
EVENING...AND SOME BR MAY DEVELOP IN A FEW SPOTS FOR LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ESP KPSF/KGFL. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME IFR
CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD AS WELL. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM FOR SAT
NIGHT AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING WET WEATHER PROBABILITIES THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WILL KEEP RH VALUES RATHER ELEVATED TO
BETWEEN 55-75 PERCENT. MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THEN GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF A PERIOD WITH WET CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WITH FORECAST QPF/S
RANGING FROM ONE-TENTH TO ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS /MAINLY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS/. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON FLOWS ON AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 041041
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
641 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL COINCIDE
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO BRING CLOUDS AND A PERIOD OF
WET WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO RETURN
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN/SHOWERS WAS
APPROACHING THE CATSKILLS WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. REGIONAL UPSTREAM RADAR MOSAIC
CONTINUES TO SHOW AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS CONTINUING TO
ADVANCE NORTHEAST. HRRR/RAP13 CONTINUES WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS OF
MOVING THE WET CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. SO LITTLE ENHANCEMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
WITH MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

AS OF 400 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS EARLY INDEPENDENCE MORNING
REVEALS AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF
NOAM WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
OHIO VALLEY. A CLOSER EXAMINATION SHOWS A STRENGTHENING MID TO UPPER
LEVEL JET PER THE GOES SATELLITE HIGH DENSITY WIND MAGNITUDES
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WESTERN NY. THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT HAS
RESULTED IN AN EXPANDING AREA OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PA NOW
APPROACHING SOUTH-CENTRAL NY /SOUTHERN TIER/. TRENDS AND THE
LATEST RAP13/HRRR SUGGEST THIS RAINFALL WILL MOVE INTO OUR
SOUTHWEST ZONES /CATSKILLS/ SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND SPREAD
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FGEN FORCING
ALONG WITH DEFORMATION DYNAMICS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALL POINT
TOWARD RAISING POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN 2/3RDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...AS THE COASTAL LOW INTENSIFIES...THE
UPPER DYNAMICS QUICKLY TRACK TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WITH A
DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AROUND 21Z.
YET THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WAS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. HERE THE RAINFALL FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THESE AREAS TOO MUCH AND MAY ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL INSOLATION BEFORE THIS WAVE APPROACHES. HIRES MODELS
POINT TOWARD A REGION OF INCREASING SBCAPES CLOSE TO 1K J/KG
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO INTRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE FORECAST. WHILE NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED /LIMITED
SHEAR PROFILES AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND MARGINAL LAPSE
RATES/...LIGHTNING WILL POSE A HAZARD FOR THOSE ACROSS THE DACKS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND PRECIP...WE
WILL LOWER AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND IN
CLOSER ENSEMBLE APPROACH OF THE MOS DATA.

FOR TONIGHT...RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS WE WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THE POPS/WX ACROSS THE
REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE TOO SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE FOR EVENING
ACTIVITIES AND NIGHT VIEW OF THE SKY IMPROVING. SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN MOIST WITH
A WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT/WINDS AND NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE OF AN
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. MOS NUMBERS ARE VERY CLOSE /IF
NOT IDENTICAL/ AS A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PER THE NCEP MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES /AND HUMIDITY/ AS H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID
TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE
70S AND LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO THE 80S /SUB 90F/ ON
MONDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY JULY SUNSHINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL AVERAGE MAINLY INTO THE
55-60F GENERAL RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE 00Z GFS IS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/GGEM REGARDING THE SPEED OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE GFS SUGGEST
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BOTH ON TUESDAY ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD/ALONG THE ACTUAL
BOUNDARY...WHILE THE GGEM/ECMWF ARE MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LOW
CHC POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HIGH CHC POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS LOOK FAIRLY WARM IN THE MID 80S FOR BOTH TUES/WED
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH MUGGY LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
VALLEY AREAS FOR BOTH MON AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY WINDING UP STALLING JUST SOUTH/EAST OF THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHC
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. IF THE FRONT IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE...IT COULD WIND UP JUST DRY EVERYWHERE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND LESS HUMID BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S FOR THURS/FRI...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COULD APPROACH THE REGION FOR SOME POINT NEXT
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES...BUT AN AREA
OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL NY AND NE PA THANKS TO AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS HEADED TOWARDS THE AREA.

THESE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO ARRIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
INITIALLY...THIS RAINFALL WILL BE FALLING OUT OF A MID LEVEL
DECK...AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH RATHER LIGHT RAINFALL.
EVENTUALLY...THE RAINFALL WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY AND THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE FOR ALL SITES FOR THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN THROUGH THE
MID AFTN HOURS. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME IFR CONDITIONS BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE TIMING/EXTENT OF THIS TO OCCUR IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BECOME S-SW...BUT SPEEDS LOOK VERY
LIGHT...GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY ABOUT 20Z-22Z...ALTHOUGH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP SOME LOWER CIGS AROUND THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE CLOUDS MAY START TO DECREASE FOR LATE THIS
EVENING...AND SOME BR MAY DEVELOP IN A FEW SPOTS FOR LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ESP KPSF/KGFL. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME IFR
CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD AS WELL. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM FOR SAT
NIGHT AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING WET WEATHER PROBABILITIES THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WILL KEEP RH VALUES RATHER ELEVATED TO
BETWEEN 55-75 PERCENT. MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THEN GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF A PERIOD WITH WET CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WITH FORECAST QPF/S
RANGING FROM ONE-TENTH TO ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS /MAINLY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS/. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON FLOWS ON AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 040810
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
410 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL COINCIDE
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO BRING CLOUDS AND A PERIOD OF
WET WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO RETURN
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS EARLY INDEPENDENCE MORNING
REVEALS AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF
NOAM WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
OHIO VALLEY. A CLOSER EXAMINATION SHOWS A STRENGTHENING MID TO UPPER
LEVEL JET PER THE GOES SATELLITE HIGH DENSITY WIND MAGNITUDES
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WESTERN NY. THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT HAS
RESULTED IN AN EXPANDING AREA OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PA NOW
APPROACHING SOUTH-CENTRAL NY /SOUTHERN TIER/. TRENDS AND THE
LATEST RAP13/HRRR SUGGEST THIS RAINFALL WILL MOVE INTO OUR
SOUTHWEST ZONES /CATSKILLS/ SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND SPREAD
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FGEN FORCING
ALONG WITH DEFORMATION DYNAMICS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALL POINT
TOWARD RAISING POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN 2/3RDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...AS THE COASTAL LOW INTENSIFIES...THE
UPPER DYNAMICS QUICKLY TRACK TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WITH A
DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AROUND 21Z.
YET THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WAS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. HERE THE RAINFALL FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THESE AREAS TOO MUCH AND MAY ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL INSOLATION BEFORE THIS WAVE APPROACHES. HIRES MODELS
POINT TOWARD A REGION OF INCREASING SBCAPES CLOSE TO 1K J/KG
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO INTRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE FORECAST. WHILE NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED /LIMITED
SHEAR PROFILES AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND MARGINAL LAPSE
RATES/...LIGHTNING WILL POSE A HAZARD FOR THOSE ACROSS THE DACKS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND PRECIP...WE
WILL LOWER AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND IN
CLOSER ENSEMBLE APPROACH OF THE MOS DATA.

FOR TONIGHT...RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS WE WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THE POPS/WX ACROSS THE
REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE TOO SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE FOR EVENING
ACTIVITIES AND NIGHT VIEW OF THE SKY IMPROVING. SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN MOIST WITH
A WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT/WINDS AND NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE OF AN
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. MOS NUMBERS ARE VERY CLOSE /IF
NOT IDENTICAL/ AS A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PER THE NCEP MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES /AND HUMIDITY/ AS H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID
TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE
70S AND LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO THE 80S /SUB 90F/ ON
MONDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY JULY SUNSHINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL AVERAGE MAINLY INTO THE
55-60F GENERAL RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE 00Z GFS IS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/GGEM REGARDING THE SPEED OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE GFS SUGGEST
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BOTH ON TUESDAY ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD/ALONG THE ACTUAL
BOUNDARY...WHILE THE GGEM/ECMWF ARE MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LOW
CHC POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HIGH CHC POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS LOOK FAIRLY WARM IN THE MID 80S FOR BOTH TUES/WED
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH MUGGY LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
VALLEY AREAS FOR BOTH MON AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY WINDING UP STALLING JUST SOUTH/EAST OF THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHC
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. IF THE FRONT IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE...IT COULD WIND UP JUST DRY EVERYWHERE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND LESS HUMID BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S FOR THURS/FRI...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COULD APPROACH THE REGION FOR SOME POINT NEXT
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BKN-OVC HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVING
TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL. WINDS LOOK TO BE CALM THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE REGION...SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO ARRIVE BY MID MORNING ON SATURDAY.
INITIALLY...THIS RAINFALL WILL BE FALLING OUT OF A MID LEVEL
DECK...AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH RATHER LIGHT
RAINFALL. EVENTUALLY...THE RAINFALL WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY AND
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR ALL SITES IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN
THROUGH THE MID AFTN HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME S-SW...BUT SPEEDS
LOOK VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY ABOUT 20Z-22Z...ALTHOUGH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP SOME LOWER CIGS AROUND THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE CLOUDS MAY START TO DECREASE FOR LATE SAT
EVENING...ALTHOUGH SOME BR MAY DEVELOP IN A FEW SPOTS FOR LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ESP KPSF. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM FOR
SAT NIGHT AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING WET WEATHER PROBABILITIES THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WILL KEEP RH VALUES RATHER ELEVATED TO
BETWEEN 55-75 PERCENT. MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THEN GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF A PERIOD WITH WET CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WITH FORECAST QPF/S
RANGING FROM ONE-TENTH TO ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS /MAINLY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS/. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON FLOWS ON AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KALY 040810
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
410 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL COINCIDE
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO BRING CLOUDS AND A PERIOD OF
WET WEATHER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE IN THE
FORECAST TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO RETURN
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS EARLY INDEPENDENCE MORNING
REVEALS AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF
NOAM WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
OHIO VALLEY. A CLOSER EXAMINATION SHOWS A STRENGTHENING MID TO UPPER
LEVEL JET PER THE GOES SATELLITE HIGH DENSITY WIND MAGNITUDES
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WESTERN NY. THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT HAS
RESULTED IN AN EXPANDING AREA OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PA NOW
APPROACHING SOUTH-CENTRAL NY /SOUTHERN TIER/. TRENDS AND THE
LATEST RAP13/HRRR SUGGEST THIS RAINFALL WILL MOVE INTO OUR
SOUTHWEST ZONES /CATSKILLS/ SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND SPREAD
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FGEN FORCING
ALONG WITH DEFORMATION DYNAMICS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALL POINT
TOWARD RAISING POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN 2/3RDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...AS THE COASTAL LOW INTENSIFIES...THE
UPPER DYNAMICS QUICKLY TRACK TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WITH A
DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AROUND 21Z.
YET THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WAS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. HERE THE RAINFALL FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THESE AREAS TOO MUCH AND MAY ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL INSOLATION BEFORE THIS WAVE APPROACHES. HIRES MODELS
POINT TOWARD A REGION OF INCREASING SBCAPES CLOSE TO 1K J/KG
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO INTRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE FORECAST. WHILE NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED /LIMITED
SHEAR PROFILES AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND MARGINAL LAPSE
RATES/...LIGHTNING WILL POSE A HAZARD FOR THOSE ACROSS THE DACKS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND PRECIP...WE
WILL LOWER AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND IN
CLOSER ENSEMBLE APPROACH OF THE MOS DATA.

FOR TONIGHT...RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS WE WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THE POPS/WX ACROSS THE
REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE TOO SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE FOR EVENING
ACTIVITIES AND NIGHT VIEW OF THE SKY IMPROVING. SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN MOIST WITH
A WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT/WINDS AND NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE OF AN
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. MOS NUMBERS ARE VERY CLOSE /IF
NOT IDENTICAL/ AS A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PER THE NCEP MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES /AND HUMIDITY/ AS H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID
TEENS. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE
70S AND LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY AND WELL INTO THE 80S /SUB 90F/ ON
MONDAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY JULY SUNSHINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL AVERAGE MAINLY INTO THE
55-60F GENERAL RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE 00Z GFS IS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/GGEM REGARDING THE SPEED OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE GFS SUGGEST
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BOTH ON TUESDAY ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD/ALONG THE ACTUAL
BOUNDARY...WHILE THE GGEM/ECMWF ARE MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LOW
CHC POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HIGH CHC POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS LOOK FAIRLY WARM IN THE MID 80S FOR BOTH TUES/WED
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH MUGGY LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
VALLEY AREAS FOR BOTH MON AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY WINDING UP STALLING JUST SOUTH/EAST OF THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHC
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. IF THE FRONT IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE...IT COULD WIND UP JUST DRY EVERYWHERE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND LESS HUMID BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S FOR THURS/FRI...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COULD APPROACH THE REGION FOR SOME POINT NEXT
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS LOOK TO
BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BKN-OVC HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVING
TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL. WINDS LOOK TO BE CALM THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE REGION...SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO ARRIVE BY MID MORNING ON SATURDAY.
INITIALLY...THIS RAINFALL WILL BE FALLING OUT OF A MID LEVEL
DECK...AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH RATHER LIGHT
RAINFALL. EVENTUALLY...THE RAINFALL WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY AND
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR ALL SITES IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN
THROUGH THE MID AFTN HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME S-SW...BUT SPEEDS
LOOK VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY ABOUT 20Z-22Z...ALTHOUGH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP SOME LOWER CIGS AROUND THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE CLOUDS MAY START TO DECREASE FOR LATE SAT
EVENING...ALTHOUGH SOME BR MAY DEVELOP IN A FEW SPOTS FOR LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ESP KPSF. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM FOR
SAT NIGHT AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING WET WEATHER PROBABILITIES THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WILL KEEP RH VALUES RATHER ELEVATED TO
BETWEEN 55-75 PERCENT. MOIST LOW LEVELS AND SOME PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT WILL KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THEN GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF A PERIOD WITH WET CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS WITH FORECAST QPF/S
RANGING FROM ONE-TENTH TO ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
REGION...ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS /MAINLY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS/. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON FLOWS ON AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY



000
FXUS61 KBTV 040758
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
358 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED
IN NATURE. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 70S TODAY WITH MORE
CLOUDS...BUT WILL BE WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH EXPECTED SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...FCST CHALLENGE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS. 00Z
ALBANY SOUNDING SHOWS A DEEP DRY LAYER FROM 850 TO 300MB WITH PW
VALUE OF ONLY 0.49". HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE CONTS TO STREAM
QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE NE
CONUS...AHEAD OF S/W TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG 25H JET.
IN ADDITION...TO MOISTURE STREAMING INTO OUR CWA...WATER VAPOR
SHOWS EMBEDDED 5H VORT IN THE FAST PROGRESSIVELY FLW ALOFT OVER
CENTRAL OHIO. USING THE RADAR AND COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGS OFF
THE HRRR THINKING INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL PA INTO NY WILL ADVECT NE INTO OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CWA...WHILE WEAKENING DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT. BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE QPF WILL BE SOUTH OF A SLK TO BTV TO MPV LINE THIS
MORNING...WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS GENERALLY < 0.10 ACROSS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES. WILL INCREASE POPS AND MENTION LIKELY
(60%) ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TWO COUNTIES AND TAPER TO NIL NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MEANWHILE...THIS AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL S/W
ENERGY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. GFS/NAM AND LOCAL MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER DEVELOPING OVER THE
SLV/WESTERN DACKS AFTER 18Z. INTERESTING THE LOCAL MODELS SHOW A
WEAK LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ON EDGE OF CLOUD DECK...WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES BTWN 500 AND 800 J/KG. THINKING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS BTWN 18Z- 21Z...AND MOVE
EASTWARD TWD THE CPV VALLEY AROUND 00Z...AND THRU CENTRAL/NORTHERN
NY BY 03Z. HAVE MENTIONED HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS TO COVER
THIS SCENARIO LATER TODAY...WITH QPF GENERALLY BTWN A TRACE TO
0.25" IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH A VARIETY
OF CLOUDS LEVELS EXPECTED...WHICH WILL HOLD VALUES MAINLY IN THE
70S. A FEW HIGHER VALUES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SLV WHERE MORE SUN IS
EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...NORTHERN STREAM 5H VORT WILL SWING
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WHILE RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE QUICKLY SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE BY 06Z. ANY
SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN OR BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...INCLUDING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. GIVEN TIMING
OF SHOWERS...SOME EVENING ACTIVITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE HOLIDAY
MAYBE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CPV VALLEY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN VT BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. EXPECT AREAS OF CLEARING TO
DEVELOP AFT 06Z WITH 1021MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO OUR CWA.
SOME PATCHY FOG/BR IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE DEEPER/PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS OF THE DACKS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLEARING...MAINLY 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO MID/UPPER
50S CPV.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NE CONUS
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES. STILL NOTICING ANOTHER 5H VORT IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IMPACTING NORTHERN VT BTWN 18Z-00Z SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
NEAR 12C....SUPPORT LOWER 70S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 80F WARMER VALLEYS ON
SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12C AND 14C...SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S
MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY... A HINT OF SUMMER NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE. THEREAFTER...STILL LOTS
OF QUESTIONS/DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT THAT
DELIVERS OUR SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE/WED.

REST OF DISCUSSION TAKEN FROM DAYSHIFT AS SAME ISSUES/QUESTIONS OF
PAST FEW DAYS.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON MONDAY BRINGING TEMPS IN THE 80S WITH 850
TEMPS RISING TO 14-15C WILL BE PUSHING EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE.

MODELS SIMILARLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY (1000-2000J/KG
CAPE) ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO THAT WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS SO TEMPS AGAIN IN THE MID 80S.

WHERE MODELS DIFFER IS ON HOW FAST THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
WITH GFS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW
UPPER TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH, SO NOT EXPECTING A DEEPENING
TROF LIKE WE`VE HAD LATELY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES, SO WENT WITH
A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING
AROUND ON WED. TEMPS A BIT COOLER ON WED.

SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THU-FRI AS FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY
WESTERLY WITH WEAK TROFFING SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (80/60).

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME IFR/LIFR FOG/BR EARLY THIS MORNING
AT MPV/SLK. WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS THROUGH
TODAY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF FOG/BR WILL LIKELY DEVELOP 08Z-11Z AT MPV/SLK...BUT
DENSITY AND COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR BRIEF THUNDERSTORM MAY ALSO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
LEFT OUT FOR NOW AS COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 7-10 KNOTS
AT RUT) TURN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISLD MVFR -SHRA OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MON...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LCL LIFR FG PSBL
KMPV/KSLK. TUE..MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE
NIGHT. WED...MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR POST FRONTAL -SHRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KBTV 040758
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
358 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED
IN NATURE. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 70S TODAY WITH MORE
CLOUDS...BUT WILL BE WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH EXPECTED SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...FCST CHALLENGE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS. 00Z
ALBANY SOUNDING SHOWS A DEEP DRY LAYER FROM 850 TO 300MB WITH PW
VALUE OF ONLY 0.49". HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE CONTS TO STREAM
QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE NE
CONUS...AHEAD OF S/W TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG 25H JET.
IN ADDITION...TO MOISTURE STREAMING INTO OUR CWA...WATER VAPOR
SHOWS EMBEDDED 5H VORT IN THE FAST PROGRESSIVELY FLW ALOFT OVER
CENTRAL OHIO. USING THE RADAR AND COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGS OFF
THE HRRR THINKING INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL PA INTO NY WILL ADVECT NE INTO OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CWA...WHILE WEAKENING DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT. BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE QPF WILL BE SOUTH OF A SLK TO BTV TO MPV LINE THIS
MORNING...WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS GENERALLY < 0.10 ACROSS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES. WILL INCREASE POPS AND MENTION LIKELY
(60%) ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TWO COUNTIES AND TAPER TO NIL NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MEANWHILE...THIS AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL S/W
ENERGY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. GFS/NAM AND LOCAL MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER DEVELOPING OVER THE
SLV/WESTERN DACKS AFTER 18Z. INTERESTING THE LOCAL MODELS SHOW A
WEAK LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ON EDGE OF CLOUD DECK...WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES BTWN 500 AND 800 J/KG. THINKING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS BTWN 18Z- 21Z...AND MOVE
EASTWARD TWD THE CPV VALLEY AROUND 00Z...AND THRU CENTRAL/NORTHERN
NY BY 03Z. HAVE MENTIONED HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS TO COVER
THIS SCENARIO LATER TODAY...WITH QPF GENERALLY BTWN A TRACE TO
0.25" IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH A VARIETY
OF CLOUDS LEVELS EXPECTED...WHICH WILL HOLD VALUES MAINLY IN THE
70S. A FEW HIGHER VALUES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SLV WHERE MORE SUN IS
EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...NORTHERN STREAM 5H VORT WILL SWING
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WHILE RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE QUICKLY SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE BY 06Z. ANY
SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN OR BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...INCLUDING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. GIVEN TIMING
OF SHOWERS...SOME EVENING ACTIVITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE HOLIDAY
MAYBE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CPV VALLEY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN VT BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. EXPECT AREAS OF CLEARING TO
DEVELOP AFT 06Z WITH 1021MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO OUR CWA.
SOME PATCHY FOG/BR IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE DEEPER/PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS OF THE DACKS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLEARING...MAINLY 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO MID/UPPER
50S CPV.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NE CONUS
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES. STILL NOTICING ANOTHER 5H VORT IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IMPACTING NORTHERN VT BTWN 18Z-00Z SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
NEAR 12C....SUPPORT LOWER 70S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 80F WARMER VALLEYS ON
SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12C AND 14C...SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S
MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY... A HINT OF SUMMER NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE. THEREAFTER...STILL LOTS
OF QUESTIONS/DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT THAT
DELIVERS OUR SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE/WED.

REST OF DISCUSSION TAKEN FROM DAYSHIFT AS SAME ISSUES/QUESTIONS OF
PAST FEW DAYS.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON MONDAY BRINGING TEMPS IN THE 80S WITH 850
TEMPS RISING TO 14-15C WILL BE PUSHING EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE.

MODELS SIMILARLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY (1000-2000J/KG
CAPE) ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO THAT WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS SO TEMPS AGAIN IN THE MID 80S.

WHERE MODELS DIFFER IS ON HOW FAST THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
WITH GFS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW
UPPER TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH, SO NOT EXPECTING A DEEPENING
TROF LIKE WE`VE HAD LATELY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES, SO WENT WITH
A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING
AROUND ON WED. TEMPS A BIT COOLER ON WED.

SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THU-FRI AS FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY
WESTERLY WITH WEAK TROFFING SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (80/60).

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME IFR/LIFR FOG/BR EARLY THIS MORNING
AT MPV/SLK. WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS THROUGH
TODAY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF FOG/BR WILL LIKELY DEVELOP 08Z-11Z AT MPV/SLK...BUT
DENSITY AND COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR BRIEF THUNDERSTORM MAY ALSO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
LEFT OUT FOR NOW AS COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 7-10 KNOTS
AT RUT) TURN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISLD MVFR -SHRA OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MON...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LCL LIFR FG PSBL
KMPV/KSLK. TUE..MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE
NIGHT. WED...MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR POST FRONTAL -SHRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KBTV 040758
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
358 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED
IN NATURE. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 70S TODAY WITH MORE
CLOUDS...BUT WILL BE WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH EXPECTED SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...FCST CHALLENGE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS. 00Z
ALBANY SOUNDING SHOWS A DEEP DRY LAYER FROM 850 TO 300MB WITH PW
VALUE OF ONLY 0.49". HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE CONTS TO STREAM
QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE NE
CONUS...AHEAD OF S/W TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG 25H JET.
IN ADDITION...TO MOISTURE STREAMING INTO OUR CWA...WATER VAPOR
SHOWS EMBEDDED 5H VORT IN THE FAST PROGRESSIVELY FLW ALOFT OVER
CENTRAL OHIO. USING THE RADAR AND COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGS OFF
THE HRRR THINKING INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL PA INTO NY WILL ADVECT NE INTO OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CWA...WHILE WEAKENING DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT. BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE QPF WILL BE SOUTH OF A SLK TO BTV TO MPV LINE THIS
MORNING...WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS GENERALLY < 0.10 ACROSS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES. WILL INCREASE POPS AND MENTION LIKELY
(60%) ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TWO COUNTIES AND TAPER TO NIL NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MEANWHILE...THIS AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL S/W
ENERGY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. GFS/NAM AND LOCAL MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER DEVELOPING OVER THE
SLV/WESTERN DACKS AFTER 18Z. INTERESTING THE LOCAL MODELS SHOW A
WEAK LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ON EDGE OF CLOUD DECK...WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES BTWN 500 AND 800 J/KG. THINKING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS BTWN 18Z- 21Z...AND MOVE
EASTWARD TWD THE CPV VALLEY AROUND 00Z...AND THRU CENTRAL/NORTHERN
NY BY 03Z. HAVE MENTIONED HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS TO COVER
THIS SCENARIO LATER TODAY...WITH QPF GENERALLY BTWN A TRACE TO
0.25" IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH A VARIETY
OF CLOUDS LEVELS EXPECTED...WHICH WILL HOLD VALUES MAINLY IN THE
70S. A FEW HIGHER VALUES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SLV WHERE MORE SUN IS
EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...NORTHERN STREAM 5H VORT WILL SWING
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WHILE RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE QUICKLY SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE BY 06Z. ANY
SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN OR BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...INCLUDING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. GIVEN TIMING
OF SHOWERS...SOME EVENING ACTIVITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE HOLIDAY
MAYBE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CPV VALLEY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN VT BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. EXPECT AREAS OF CLEARING TO
DEVELOP AFT 06Z WITH 1021MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO OUR CWA.
SOME PATCHY FOG/BR IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE DEEPER/PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS OF THE DACKS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLEARING...MAINLY 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO MID/UPPER
50S CPV.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NE CONUS
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES. STILL NOTICING ANOTHER 5H VORT IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IMPACTING NORTHERN VT BTWN 18Z-00Z SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
NEAR 12C....SUPPORT LOWER 70S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 80F WARMER VALLEYS ON
SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12C AND 14C...SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S
MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY... A HINT OF SUMMER NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE. THEREAFTER...STILL LOTS
OF QUESTIONS/DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT THAT
DELIVERS OUR SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE/WED.

REST OF DISCUSSION TAKEN FROM DAYSHIFT AS SAME ISSUES/QUESTIONS OF
PAST FEW DAYS.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON MONDAY BRINGING TEMPS IN THE 80S WITH 850
TEMPS RISING TO 14-15C WILL BE PUSHING EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE.

MODELS SIMILARLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY (1000-2000J/KG
CAPE) ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO THAT WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS SO TEMPS AGAIN IN THE MID 80S.

WHERE MODELS DIFFER IS ON HOW FAST THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
WITH GFS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW
UPPER TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH, SO NOT EXPECTING A DEEPENING
TROF LIKE WE`VE HAD LATELY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES, SO WENT WITH
A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING
AROUND ON WED. TEMPS A BIT COOLER ON WED.

SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THU-FRI AS FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY
WESTERLY WITH WEAK TROFFING SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (80/60).

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME IFR/LIFR FOG/BR EARLY THIS MORNING
AT MPV/SLK. WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS THROUGH
TODAY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF FOG/BR WILL LIKELY DEVELOP 08Z-11Z AT MPV/SLK...BUT
DENSITY AND COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR BRIEF THUNDERSTORM MAY ALSO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
LEFT OUT FOR NOW AS COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 7-10 KNOTS
AT RUT) TURN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISLD MVFR -SHRA OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MON...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LCL LIFR FG PSBL
KMPV/KSLK. TUE..MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE
NIGHT. WED...MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR POST FRONTAL -SHRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KBTV 040758
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
358 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED
IN NATURE. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 70S TODAY WITH MORE
CLOUDS...BUT WILL BE WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH EXPECTED SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...FCST CHALLENGE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS. 00Z
ALBANY SOUNDING SHOWS A DEEP DRY LAYER FROM 850 TO 300MB WITH PW
VALUE OF ONLY 0.49". HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE CONTS TO STREAM
QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE NE
CONUS...AHEAD OF S/W TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG 25H JET.
IN ADDITION...TO MOISTURE STREAMING INTO OUR CWA...WATER VAPOR
SHOWS EMBEDDED 5H VORT IN THE FAST PROGRESSIVELY FLW ALOFT OVER
CENTRAL OHIO. USING THE RADAR AND COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGS OFF
THE HRRR THINKING INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL PA INTO NY WILL ADVECT NE INTO OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CWA...WHILE WEAKENING DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT. BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE QPF WILL BE SOUTH OF A SLK TO BTV TO MPV LINE THIS
MORNING...WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS GENERALLY < 0.10 ACROSS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES. WILL INCREASE POPS AND MENTION LIKELY
(60%) ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TWO COUNTIES AND TAPER TO NIL NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MEANWHILE...THIS AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL S/W
ENERGY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. GFS/NAM AND LOCAL MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER DEVELOPING OVER THE
SLV/WESTERN DACKS AFTER 18Z. INTERESTING THE LOCAL MODELS SHOW A
WEAK LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ON EDGE OF CLOUD DECK...WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES BTWN 500 AND 800 J/KG. THINKING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS BTWN 18Z- 21Z...AND MOVE
EASTWARD TWD THE CPV VALLEY AROUND 00Z...AND THRU CENTRAL/NORTHERN
NY BY 03Z. HAVE MENTIONED HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS TO COVER
THIS SCENARIO LATER TODAY...WITH QPF GENERALLY BTWN A TRACE TO
0.25" IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH A VARIETY
OF CLOUDS LEVELS EXPECTED...WHICH WILL HOLD VALUES MAINLY IN THE
70S. A FEW HIGHER VALUES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SLV WHERE MORE SUN IS
EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...NORTHERN STREAM 5H VORT WILL SWING
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WHILE RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE QUICKLY SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE BY 06Z. ANY
SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN OR BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...INCLUDING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. GIVEN TIMING
OF SHOWERS...SOME EVENING ACTIVITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE HOLIDAY
MAYBE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CPV VALLEY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN VT BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. EXPECT AREAS OF CLEARING TO
DEVELOP AFT 06Z WITH 1021MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO OUR CWA.
SOME PATCHY FOG/BR IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE DEEPER/PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS OF THE DACKS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLEARING...MAINLY 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO MID/UPPER
50S CPV.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NE CONUS
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES. STILL NOTICING ANOTHER 5H VORT IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IMPACTING NORTHERN VT BTWN 18Z-00Z SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
NEAR 12C....SUPPORT LOWER 70S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 80F WARMER VALLEYS ON
SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12C AND 14C...SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S
MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY... A HINT OF SUMMER NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE. THEREAFTER...STILL LOTS
OF QUESTIONS/DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT THAT
DELIVERS OUR SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE/WED.

REST OF DISCUSSION TAKEN FROM DAYSHIFT AS SAME ISSUES/QUESTIONS OF
PAST FEW DAYS.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON MONDAY BRINGING TEMPS IN THE 80S WITH 850
TEMPS RISING TO 14-15C WILL BE PUSHING EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE.

MODELS SIMILARLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY (1000-2000J/KG
CAPE) ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO THAT WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS SO TEMPS AGAIN IN THE MID 80S.

WHERE MODELS DIFFER IS ON HOW FAST THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
WITH GFS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW
UPPER TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH, SO NOT EXPECTING A DEEPENING
TROF LIKE WE`VE HAD LATELY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES, SO WENT WITH
A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING
AROUND ON WED. TEMPS A BIT COOLER ON WED.

SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THU-FRI AS FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY
WESTERLY WITH WEAK TROFFING SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (80/60).

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME IFR/LIFR FOG/BR EARLY THIS MORNING
AT MPV/SLK. WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS THROUGH
TODAY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF FOG/BR WILL LIKELY DEVELOP 08Z-11Z AT MPV/SLK...BUT
DENSITY AND COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR BRIEF THUNDERSTORM MAY ALSO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
LEFT OUT FOR NOW AS COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 7-10 KNOTS
AT RUT) TURN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISLD MVFR -SHRA OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MON...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LCL LIFR FG PSBL
KMPV/KSLK. TUE..MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE
NIGHT. WED...MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR POST FRONTAL -SHRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KBTV 040758
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
358 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED
IN NATURE. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 70S TODAY WITH MORE
CLOUDS...BUT WILL BE WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH EXPECTED SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...FCST CHALLENGE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS. 00Z
ALBANY SOUNDING SHOWS A DEEP DRY LAYER FROM 850 TO 300MB WITH PW
VALUE OF ONLY 0.49". HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE CONTS TO STREAM
QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE NE
CONUS...AHEAD OF S/W TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG 25H JET.
IN ADDITION...TO MOISTURE STREAMING INTO OUR CWA...WATER VAPOR
SHOWS EMBEDDED 5H VORT IN THE FAST PROGRESSIVELY FLW ALOFT OVER
CENTRAL OHIO. USING THE RADAR AND COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGS OFF
THE HRRR THINKING INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL PA INTO NY WILL ADVECT NE INTO OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CWA...WHILE WEAKENING DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT. BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE QPF WILL BE SOUTH OF A SLK TO BTV TO MPV LINE THIS
MORNING...WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS GENERALLY < 0.10 ACROSS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES. WILL INCREASE POPS AND MENTION LIKELY
(60%) ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TWO COUNTIES AND TAPER TO NIL NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MEANWHILE...THIS AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL S/W
ENERGY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. GFS/NAM AND LOCAL MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER DEVELOPING OVER THE
SLV/WESTERN DACKS AFTER 18Z. INTERESTING THE LOCAL MODELS SHOW A
WEAK LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ON EDGE OF CLOUD DECK...WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES BTWN 500 AND 800 J/KG. THINKING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS BTWN 18Z- 21Z...AND MOVE
EASTWARD TWD THE CPV VALLEY AROUND 00Z...AND THRU CENTRAL/NORTHERN
NY BY 03Z. HAVE MENTIONED HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS TO COVER
THIS SCENARIO LATER TODAY...WITH QPF GENERALLY BTWN A TRACE TO
0.25" IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH A VARIETY
OF CLOUDS LEVELS EXPECTED...WHICH WILL HOLD VALUES MAINLY IN THE
70S. A FEW HIGHER VALUES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SLV WHERE MORE SUN IS
EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...NORTHERN STREAM 5H VORT WILL SWING
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WHILE RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE QUICKLY SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE BY 06Z. ANY
SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN OR BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...INCLUDING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. GIVEN TIMING
OF SHOWERS...SOME EVENING ACTIVITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE HOLIDAY
MAYBE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CPV VALLEY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN VT BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. EXPECT AREAS OF CLEARING TO
DEVELOP AFT 06Z WITH 1021MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO OUR CWA.
SOME PATCHY FOG/BR IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE DEEPER/PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS OF THE DACKS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLEARING...MAINLY 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO MID/UPPER
50S CPV.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NE CONUS
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES. STILL NOTICING ANOTHER 5H VORT IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IMPACTING NORTHERN VT BTWN 18Z-00Z SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
NEAR 12C....SUPPORT LOWER 70S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 80F WARMER VALLEYS ON
SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12C AND 14C...SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S
MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY... A HINT OF SUMMER NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE. THEREAFTER...STILL LOTS
OF QUESTIONS/DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT THAT
DELIVERS OUR SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE/WED.

REST OF DISCUSSION TAKEN FROM DAYSHIFT AS SAME ISSUES/QUESTIONS OF
PAST FEW DAYS.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON MONDAY BRINGING TEMPS IN THE 80S WITH 850
TEMPS RISING TO 14-15C WILL BE PUSHING EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE.

MODELS SIMILARLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY (1000-2000J/KG
CAPE) ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO THAT WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS SO TEMPS AGAIN IN THE MID 80S.

WHERE MODELS DIFFER IS ON HOW FAST THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
WITH GFS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW
UPPER TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH, SO NOT EXPECTING A DEEPENING
TROF LIKE WE`VE HAD LATELY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES, SO WENT WITH
A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING
AROUND ON WED. TEMPS A BIT COOLER ON WED.

SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THU-FRI AS FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY
WESTERLY WITH WEAK TROFFING SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (80/60).

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME IFR/LIFR FOG/BR EARLY THIS MORNING
AT MPV/SLK. WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS THROUGH
TODAY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF FOG/BR WILL LIKELY DEVELOP 08Z-11Z AT MPV/SLK...BUT
DENSITY AND COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR BRIEF THUNDERSTORM MAY ALSO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
LEFT OUT FOR NOW AS COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 7-10 KNOTS
AT RUT) TURN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISLD MVFR -SHRA OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MON...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LCL LIFR FG PSBL
KMPV/KSLK. TUE..MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE
NIGHT. WED...MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR POST FRONTAL -SHRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KBTV 040758
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
358 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED
IN NATURE. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 70S TODAY WITH MORE
CLOUDS...BUT WILL BE WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH EXPECTED SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...FCST CHALLENGE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS. 00Z
ALBANY SOUNDING SHOWS A DEEP DRY LAYER FROM 850 TO 300MB WITH PW
VALUE OF ONLY 0.49". HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE CONTS TO STREAM
QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE NE
CONUS...AHEAD OF S/W TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG 25H JET.
IN ADDITION...TO MOISTURE STREAMING INTO OUR CWA...WATER VAPOR
SHOWS EMBEDDED 5H VORT IN THE FAST PROGRESSIVELY FLW ALOFT OVER
CENTRAL OHIO. USING THE RADAR AND COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGS OFF
THE HRRR THINKING INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL PA INTO NY WILL ADVECT NE INTO OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CWA...WHILE WEAKENING DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT. BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE QPF WILL BE SOUTH OF A SLK TO BTV TO MPV LINE THIS
MORNING...WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS GENERALLY < 0.10 ACROSS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES. WILL INCREASE POPS AND MENTION LIKELY
(60%) ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TWO COUNTIES AND TAPER TO NIL NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MEANWHILE...THIS AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL S/W
ENERGY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. GFS/NAM AND LOCAL MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER DEVELOPING OVER THE
SLV/WESTERN DACKS AFTER 18Z. INTERESTING THE LOCAL MODELS SHOW A
WEAK LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ON EDGE OF CLOUD DECK...WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES BTWN 500 AND 800 J/KG. THINKING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS BTWN 18Z- 21Z...AND MOVE
EASTWARD TWD THE CPV VALLEY AROUND 00Z...AND THRU CENTRAL/NORTHERN
NY BY 03Z. HAVE MENTIONED HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS TO COVER
THIS SCENARIO LATER TODAY...WITH QPF GENERALLY BTWN A TRACE TO
0.25" IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH A VARIETY
OF CLOUDS LEVELS EXPECTED...WHICH WILL HOLD VALUES MAINLY IN THE
70S. A FEW HIGHER VALUES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SLV WHERE MORE SUN IS
EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...NORTHERN STREAM 5H VORT WILL SWING
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WHILE RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE QUICKLY SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE BY 06Z. ANY
SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN OR BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...INCLUDING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. GIVEN TIMING
OF SHOWERS...SOME EVENING ACTIVITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE HOLIDAY
MAYBE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CPV VALLEY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN VT BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. EXPECT AREAS OF CLEARING TO
DEVELOP AFT 06Z WITH 1021MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO OUR CWA.
SOME PATCHY FOG/BR IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE DEEPER/PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS OF THE DACKS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLEARING...MAINLY 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO MID/UPPER
50S CPV.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NE CONUS
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES. STILL NOTICING ANOTHER 5H VORT IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IMPACTING NORTHERN VT BTWN 18Z-00Z SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
NEAR 12C....SUPPORT LOWER 70S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 80F WARMER VALLEYS ON
SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12C AND 14C...SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S
MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY... A HINT OF SUMMER NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE. THEREAFTER...STILL LOTS
OF QUESTIONS/DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT THAT
DELIVERS OUR SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE/WED.

REST OF DISCUSSION TAKEN FROM DAYSHIFT AS SAME ISSUES/QUESTIONS OF
PAST FEW DAYS.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON MONDAY BRINGING TEMPS IN THE 80S WITH 850
TEMPS RISING TO 14-15C WILL BE PUSHING EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE.

MODELS SIMILARLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY (1000-2000J/KG
CAPE) ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO THAT WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS SO TEMPS AGAIN IN THE MID 80S.

WHERE MODELS DIFFER IS ON HOW FAST THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
WITH GFS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW
UPPER TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH, SO NOT EXPECTING A DEEPENING
TROF LIKE WE`VE HAD LATELY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES, SO WENT WITH
A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING
AROUND ON WED. TEMPS A BIT COOLER ON WED.

SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THU-FRI AS FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY
WESTERLY WITH WEAK TROFFING SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (80/60).

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME IFR/LIFR FOG/BR EARLY THIS MORNING
AT MPV/SLK. WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS THROUGH
TODAY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF FOG/BR WILL LIKELY DEVELOP 08Z-11Z AT MPV/SLK...BUT
DENSITY AND COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR BRIEF THUNDERSTORM MAY ALSO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
LEFT OUT FOR NOW AS COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 7-10 KNOTS
AT RUT) TURN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISLD MVFR -SHRA OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MON...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LCL LIFR FG PSBL
KMPV/KSLK. TUE..MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE
NIGHT. WED...MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR POST FRONTAL -SHRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KBTV 040758
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
358 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED
IN NATURE. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 70S TODAY WITH MORE
CLOUDS...BUT WILL BE WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH EXPECTED SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...FCST CHALLENGE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS. 00Z
ALBANY SOUNDING SHOWS A DEEP DRY LAYER FROM 850 TO 300MB WITH PW
VALUE OF ONLY 0.49". HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE CONTS TO STREAM
QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE NE
CONUS...AHEAD OF S/W TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG 25H JET.
IN ADDITION...TO MOISTURE STREAMING INTO OUR CWA...WATER VAPOR
SHOWS EMBEDDED 5H VORT IN THE FAST PROGRESSIVELY FLW ALOFT OVER
CENTRAL OHIO. USING THE RADAR AND COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGS OFF
THE HRRR THINKING INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL PA INTO NY WILL ADVECT NE INTO OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CWA...WHILE WEAKENING DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT. BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE QPF WILL BE SOUTH OF A SLK TO BTV TO MPV LINE THIS
MORNING...WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS GENERALLY < 0.10 ACROSS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES. WILL INCREASE POPS AND MENTION LIKELY
(60%) ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TWO COUNTIES AND TAPER TO NIL NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MEANWHILE...THIS AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL S/W
ENERGY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. GFS/NAM AND LOCAL MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER DEVELOPING OVER THE
SLV/WESTERN DACKS AFTER 18Z. INTERESTING THE LOCAL MODELS SHOW A
WEAK LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ON EDGE OF CLOUD DECK...WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES BTWN 500 AND 800 J/KG. THINKING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS BTWN 18Z- 21Z...AND MOVE
EASTWARD TWD THE CPV VALLEY AROUND 00Z...AND THRU CENTRAL/NORTHERN
NY BY 03Z. HAVE MENTIONED HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS TO COVER
THIS SCENARIO LATER TODAY...WITH QPF GENERALLY BTWN A TRACE TO
0.25" IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH A VARIETY
OF CLOUDS LEVELS EXPECTED...WHICH WILL HOLD VALUES MAINLY IN THE
70S. A FEW HIGHER VALUES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SLV WHERE MORE SUN IS
EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...NORTHERN STREAM 5H VORT WILL SWING
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WHILE RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE QUICKLY SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE BY 06Z. ANY
SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN OR BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...INCLUDING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. GIVEN TIMING
OF SHOWERS...SOME EVENING ACTIVITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE HOLIDAY
MAYBE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CPV VALLEY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN VT BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. EXPECT AREAS OF CLEARING TO
DEVELOP AFT 06Z WITH 1021MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO OUR CWA.
SOME PATCHY FOG/BR IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE DEEPER/PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS OF THE DACKS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLEARING...MAINLY 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO MID/UPPER
50S CPV.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NE CONUS
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES. STILL NOTICING ANOTHER 5H VORT IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IMPACTING NORTHERN VT BTWN 18Z-00Z SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
NEAR 12C....SUPPORT LOWER 70S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 80F WARMER VALLEYS ON
SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12C AND 14C...SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S
MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY... A HINT OF SUMMER NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE. THEREAFTER...STILL LOTS
OF QUESTIONS/DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT THAT
DELIVERS OUR SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE/WED.

REST OF DISCUSSION TAKEN FROM DAYSHIFT AS SAME ISSUES/QUESTIONS OF
PAST FEW DAYS.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON MONDAY BRINGING TEMPS IN THE 80S WITH 850
TEMPS RISING TO 14-15C WILL BE PUSHING EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE.

MODELS SIMILARLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY (1000-2000J/KG
CAPE) ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO THAT WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS SO TEMPS AGAIN IN THE MID 80S.

WHERE MODELS DIFFER IS ON HOW FAST THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
WITH GFS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW
UPPER TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH, SO NOT EXPECTING A DEEPENING
TROF LIKE WE`VE HAD LATELY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES, SO WENT WITH
A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING
AROUND ON WED. TEMPS A BIT COOLER ON WED.

SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THU-FRI AS FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY
WESTERLY WITH WEAK TROFFING SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (80/60).

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME IFR/LIFR FOG/BR EARLY THIS MORNING
AT MPV/SLK. WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS THROUGH
TODAY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF FOG/BR WILL LIKELY DEVELOP 08Z-11Z AT MPV/SLK...BUT
DENSITY AND COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR BRIEF THUNDERSTORM MAY ALSO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
LEFT OUT FOR NOW AS COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 7-10 KNOTS
AT RUT) TURN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISLD MVFR -SHRA OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MON...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LCL LIFR FG PSBL
KMPV/KSLK. TUE..MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE
NIGHT. WED...MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR POST FRONTAL -SHRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KBTV 040758
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
358 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED
IN NATURE. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 70S TODAY WITH MORE
CLOUDS...BUT WILL BE WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH EXPECTED SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...FCST CHALLENGE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS. 00Z
ALBANY SOUNDING SHOWS A DEEP DRY LAYER FROM 850 TO 300MB WITH PW
VALUE OF ONLY 0.49". HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE CONTS TO STREAM
QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE NE
CONUS...AHEAD OF S/W TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG 25H JET.
IN ADDITION...TO MOISTURE STREAMING INTO OUR CWA...WATER VAPOR
SHOWS EMBEDDED 5H VORT IN THE FAST PROGRESSIVELY FLW ALOFT OVER
CENTRAL OHIO. USING THE RADAR AND COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PROGS OFF
THE HRRR THINKING INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE NOW LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL PA INTO NY WILL ADVECT NE INTO OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CWA...WHILE WEAKENING DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT. BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE QPF WILL BE SOUTH OF A SLK TO BTV TO MPV LINE THIS
MORNING...WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS GENERALLY < 0.10 ACROSS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES. WILL INCREASE POPS AND MENTION LIKELY
(60%) ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TWO COUNTIES AND TAPER TO NIL NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MEANWHILE...THIS AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL S/W
ENERGY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. GFS/NAM AND LOCAL MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER DEVELOPING OVER THE
SLV/WESTERN DACKS AFTER 18Z. INTERESTING THE LOCAL MODELS SHOW A
WEAK LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ON EDGE OF CLOUD DECK...WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES BTWN 500 AND 800 J/KG. THINKING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS BTWN 18Z- 21Z...AND MOVE
EASTWARD TWD THE CPV VALLEY AROUND 00Z...AND THRU CENTRAL/NORTHERN
NY BY 03Z. HAVE MENTIONED HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS TO COVER
THIS SCENARIO LATER TODAY...WITH QPF GENERALLY BTWN A TRACE TO
0.25" IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH A VARIETY
OF CLOUDS LEVELS EXPECTED...WHICH WILL HOLD VALUES MAINLY IN THE
70S. A FEW HIGHER VALUES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SLV WHERE MORE SUN IS
EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...NORTHERN STREAM 5H VORT WILL SWING
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS EVENING...WHILE RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE QUICKLY SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN MAINE BY 06Z. ANY
SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN OR BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...INCLUDING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. GIVEN TIMING
OF SHOWERS...SOME EVENING ACTIVITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE HOLIDAY
MAYBE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CPV VALLEY INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN VT BTWN 00Z AND 03Z. EXPECT AREAS OF CLEARING TO
DEVELOP AFT 06Z WITH 1021MB SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO OUR CWA.
SOME PATCHY FOG/BR IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE DEEPER/PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS OF THE DACKS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPEND UPON CLEARING...MAINLY 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO MID/UPPER
50S CPV.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NE CONUS
WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES. STILL NOTICING ANOTHER 5H VORT IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT IMPACTING NORTHERN VT BTWN 18Z-00Z SUNDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
NEAR 12C....SUPPORT LOWER 70S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 80F WARMER VALLEYS ON
SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12C AND 14C...SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S
MTN TOWNS TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY... A HINT OF SUMMER NEXT WEEK AS
HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE. THEREAFTER...STILL LOTS
OF QUESTIONS/DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/PROGRESSION OF FRONT THAT
DELIVERS OUR SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE/WED.

REST OF DISCUSSION TAKEN FROM DAYSHIFT AS SAME ISSUES/QUESTIONS OF
PAST FEW DAYS.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON MONDAY BRINGING TEMPS IN THE 80S WITH 850
TEMPS RISING TO 14-15C WILL BE PUSHING EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE.

MODELS SIMILARLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY (1000-2000J/KG
CAPE) ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO THAT WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS SO TEMPS AGAIN IN THE MID 80S.

WHERE MODELS DIFFER IS ON HOW FAST THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
WITH GFS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW
UPPER TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH, SO NOT EXPECTING A DEEPENING
TROF LIKE WE`VE HAD LATELY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES, SO WENT WITH
A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING
AROUND ON WED. TEMPS A BIT COOLER ON WED.

SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THU-FRI AS FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY
WESTERLY WITH WEAK TROFFING SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (80/60).

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME IFR/LIFR FOG/BR EARLY THIS MORNING
AT MPV/SLK. WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS THROUGH
TODAY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF FOG/BR WILL LIKELY DEVELOP 08Z-11Z AT MPV/SLK...BUT
DENSITY AND COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR BRIEF THUNDERSTORM MAY ALSO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
LEFT OUT FOR NOW AS COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 7-10 KNOTS
AT RUT) TURN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISLD MVFR -SHRA OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MON...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LCL LIFR FG PSBL
KMPV/KSLK. TUE..MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE
NIGHT. WED...MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR POST FRONTAL -SHRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KALY 040528
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. GENERALLY DRY
AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT...HAPPY INDEPENDENCE DAY AS THE WEATHER REMAINS
RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NE. CLOUDS WERE
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
REGIONAL RADAR REVEALING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN WAS ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL PA. PER LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION WOULD PLACE THE
CATSKILLS INTO THE FIRST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER SHORTLY AFTER 10Z.
CURRENT GRIDS ARE IN EXCELLENT WITH POPS/WX AS NO CHANGES NEEDED.
MAIN UPDATE WAS TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPTS/WINDS/SKY PER OBSERVATIONS
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ALL THOSE GRIDS.
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE COOL FOR EARLY JULY AGAIN...GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OUT OF THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA. MOST OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL IN THE
AREA NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...ESP FROM AROUND
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH
OR LESS...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH DUE TO
THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE. NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FOR SAT NT...AFTER A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING...SKIES WILL BE CLEARING AND
TEMPS WILL DROP TO LOWS IN THE 50S. SOME UPPER 40S ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH WARMER TEMPS
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMPACTS THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
ANCHORED OVER THE REGION MONDAY RESULTING IN THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK FEATURING DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL INCREASINGLY MUGGY AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD ON
THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE.

DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF
THE REGION...AND A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE/PERHAPS A WEAK COASTAL LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN ITS MOVEMENT
AND RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AT NIGHT. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACTLY THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY BETWEEN TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN BY FRIDAY AND HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BKN-OVC HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVING
TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL. WINDS LOOK TO BE CALM THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE REGION...SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO ARRIVE BY MID MORNING ON SATURDAY.
INITIALLY...THIS RAINFALL WILL BE FALLING OUT OF A MID LEVEL
DECK...AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH RATHER LIGHT
RAINFALL. EVENTUALLY...THE RAINFALL WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY AND
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR ALL SITES IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN
THROUGH THE MID AFTN HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME S-SW...BUT SPEEDS
LOOK VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY ABOUT 20Z-22Z...ALTHOUGH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP SOME LOWER CIGS AROUND THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE CLOUDS MAY START TO DECREASE FOR LATE SAT
EVENING...ALTHOUGH SOME BR MAY DEVELOP IN A FEW SPOTS FOR LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ESP KPSF. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM FOR
SAT NIGHT AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. RAINFALL AMTS WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...WITH
SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THERE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM



000
FXUS61 KALY 040528
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. GENERALLY DRY
AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT...HAPPY INDEPENDENCE DAY AS THE WEATHER REMAINS
RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NE. CLOUDS WERE
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
REGIONAL RADAR REVEALING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN WAS ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL PA. PER LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION WOULD PLACE THE
CATSKILLS INTO THE FIRST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER SHORTLY AFTER 10Z.
CURRENT GRIDS ARE IN EXCELLENT WITH POPS/WX AS NO CHANGES NEEDED.
MAIN UPDATE WAS TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPTS/WINDS/SKY PER OBSERVATIONS
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ALL THOSE GRIDS.
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE COOL FOR EARLY JULY AGAIN...GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OUT OF THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA. MOST OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL IN THE
AREA NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...ESP FROM AROUND
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH
OR LESS...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH DUE TO
THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE. NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FOR SAT NT...AFTER A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING...SKIES WILL BE CLEARING AND
TEMPS WILL DROP TO LOWS IN THE 50S. SOME UPPER 40S ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH WARMER TEMPS
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMPACTS THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
ANCHORED OVER THE REGION MONDAY RESULTING IN THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK FEATURING DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL INCREASINGLY MUGGY AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD ON
THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE.

DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF
THE REGION...AND A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE/PERHAPS A WEAK COASTAL LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN ITS MOVEMENT
AND RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AT NIGHT. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACTLY THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY BETWEEN TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN BY FRIDAY AND HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BKN-OVC HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVING
TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL. WINDS LOOK TO BE CALM THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE REGION...SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO ARRIVE BY MID MORNING ON SATURDAY.
INITIALLY...THIS RAINFALL WILL BE FALLING OUT OF A MID LEVEL
DECK...AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH RATHER LIGHT
RAINFALL. EVENTUALLY...THE RAINFALL WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY AND
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR ALL SITES IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN
THROUGH THE MID AFTN HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME S-SW...BUT SPEEDS
LOOK VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY ABOUT 20Z-22Z...ALTHOUGH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP SOME LOWER CIGS AROUND THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE CLOUDS MAY START TO DECREASE FOR LATE SAT
EVENING...ALTHOUGH SOME BR MAY DEVELOP IN A FEW SPOTS FOR LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ESP KPSF. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM FOR
SAT NIGHT AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. RAINFALL AMTS WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...WITH
SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THERE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM



000
FXUS61 KALY 040528
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. GENERALLY DRY
AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT...HAPPY INDEPENDENCE DAY AS THE WEATHER REMAINS
RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NE. CLOUDS WERE
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
REGIONAL RADAR REVEALING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN WAS ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL PA. PER LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION WOULD PLACE THE
CATSKILLS INTO THE FIRST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER SHORTLY AFTER 10Z.
CURRENT GRIDS ARE IN EXCELLENT WITH POPS/WX AS NO CHANGES NEEDED.
MAIN UPDATE WAS TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPTS/WINDS/SKY PER OBSERVATIONS
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ALL THOSE GRIDS.
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE COOL FOR EARLY JULY AGAIN...GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OUT OF THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA. MOST OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL IN THE
AREA NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...ESP FROM AROUND
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH
OR LESS...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH DUE TO
THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE. NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FOR SAT NT...AFTER A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING...SKIES WILL BE CLEARING AND
TEMPS WILL DROP TO LOWS IN THE 50S. SOME UPPER 40S ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH WARMER TEMPS
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMPACTS THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
ANCHORED OVER THE REGION MONDAY RESULTING IN THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK FEATURING DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL INCREASINGLY MUGGY AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD ON
THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE.

DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF
THE REGION...AND A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE/PERHAPS A WEAK COASTAL LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN ITS MOVEMENT
AND RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AT NIGHT. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACTLY THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY BETWEEN TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN BY FRIDAY AND HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BKN-OVC HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVING
TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL. WINDS LOOK TO BE CALM THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE REGION...SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO ARRIVE BY MID MORNING ON SATURDAY.
INITIALLY...THIS RAINFALL WILL BE FALLING OUT OF A MID LEVEL
DECK...AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH RATHER LIGHT
RAINFALL. EVENTUALLY...THE RAINFALL WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY AND
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR ALL SITES IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN
THROUGH THE MID AFTN HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME S-SW...BUT SPEEDS
LOOK VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY ABOUT 20Z-22Z...ALTHOUGH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP SOME LOWER CIGS AROUND THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE CLOUDS MAY START TO DECREASE FOR LATE SAT
EVENING...ALTHOUGH SOME BR MAY DEVELOP IN A FEW SPOTS FOR LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ESP KPSF. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM FOR
SAT NIGHT AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. RAINFALL AMTS WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...WITH
SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THERE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM



000
FXUS61 KALY 040528
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. GENERALLY DRY
AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT...HAPPY INDEPENDENCE DAY AS THE WEATHER REMAINS
RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NE. CLOUDS WERE
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
REGIONAL RADAR REVEALING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN WAS ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL PA. PER LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION WOULD PLACE THE
CATSKILLS INTO THE FIRST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER SHORTLY AFTER 10Z.
CURRENT GRIDS ARE IN EXCELLENT WITH POPS/WX AS NO CHANGES NEEDED.
MAIN UPDATE WAS TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPTS/WINDS/SKY PER OBSERVATIONS
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ALL THOSE GRIDS.
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE COOL FOR EARLY JULY AGAIN...GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OUT OF THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA. MOST OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL IN THE
AREA NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...ESP FROM AROUND
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH
OR LESS...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH DUE TO
THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE. NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FOR SAT NT...AFTER A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING...SKIES WILL BE CLEARING AND
TEMPS WILL DROP TO LOWS IN THE 50S. SOME UPPER 40S ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH WARMER TEMPS
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMPACTS THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
ANCHORED OVER THE REGION MONDAY RESULTING IN THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK FEATURING DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL INCREASINGLY MUGGY AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD ON
THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE.

DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF
THE REGION...AND A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE/PERHAPS A WEAK COASTAL LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN ITS MOVEMENT
AND RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AT NIGHT. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACTLY THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY BETWEEN TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN BY FRIDAY AND HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BKN-OVC HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVING
TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL. WINDS LOOK TO BE CALM THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE REGION...SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO ARRIVE BY MID MORNING ON SATURDAY.
INITIALLY...THIS RAINFALL WILL BE FALLING OUT OF A MID LEVEL
DECK...AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH RATHER LIGHT
RAINFALL. EVENTUALLY...THE RAINFALL WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY AND
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR ALL SITES IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN
THROUGH THE MID AFTN HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME S-SW...BUT SPEEDS
LOOK VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY ABOUT 20Z-22Z...ALTHOUGH LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP SOME LOWER CIGS AROUND THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE CLOUDS MAY START TO DECREASE FOR LATE SAT
EVENING...ALTHOUGH SOME BR MAY DEVELOP IN A FEW SPOTS FOR LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ESP KPSF. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM FOR
SAT NIGHT AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. RAINFALL AMTS WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...WITH
SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THERE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM



000
FXUS61 KBTV 040528
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
128 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MAINLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
LOOKS TO OCCUR BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF A
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 108 AM EDT SATURDAY...SEVERAL CHANGES MADE TO CURRENT
FORECAST BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS. HAVE
INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER AS LATEST IR SATL SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS OVERSPREADING OUR CWA AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...WITH MORE CLOUDS AND HIGHER SFC DEWPOINT THAN
EXPECTED...HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES. THINKING LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM MID 40S DACKS TO MID 50S CPV/SLV. LAST CHANGE WAS
TO INCREASE POPS FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING TIME PERIOD...AS
GUIDANCE SHOWS MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL PA/NY ADVECTING INTO OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA TODAY. EXPECTING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRECIP...AS HEAVIER RETURNS NOW ON RADAR WILL
WEAKEN AS MOISTURE ENCOUNTERS DEEP DRY LAYER PER 00Z ALBANY
SOUNDING. REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST
INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY, BELIEVE MODEL DEWPOINTS, RESULTANT PBL INSTABILITY AND
QPF OUTPUT IS OVERDONE WITH THIS FEATURE. LOW TO MID LEVEL BACK
TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS FROM TODAY`S HYSPLIT RUNS SUGGEST OUR SOURCE
AIR TOMORROW ORIGINATES FROM SOUTHERN NEW YORK INTO PENNSYLVANIA SO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ON LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SEEM
REASONABLE, JUST NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS. BEST
SHOT AT SEEING A STRAY SHOWER TOMORROW AFTERNOON APPEARS TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE WEAK PBL FLOW
WILL SUPPORT SLOPE FLOWS AND LOCALIZED THETA-E CONVERGENCE.
OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA JUST A TOKEN 10-20% THREAT WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING DRY OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. HIGHS TOMORROW GENERALLY
IN THE 70S UNDER VARIABLE MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER.

BY TOMORROW NIGHT AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION WITH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. AGAIN, QPF WILL BE LIGHT WITH COVERAGE BEING SCATTERED
AT BEST AND MANY AREAS REMAINING DRY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT MILDER GIVEN VARIABLE CLOUDS, MAINLY IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60.

BY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST WITH DEEP LAYER
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING IN EARNEST ACROSS THE REGION. OTHER THAN A
FEW LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS FAR NORTHEAST DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO EARLY JULY NORMALS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A HINT OF SUMMER NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR
JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUE.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT SHORT WAVE RIDGING MONDAY SHOULD BRING A
NICE WARM AND DRY DAY IN THE 80S WITH 850 TEMPS RISING TO 14-15C.

MODELS SIMILARLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY
(1000-2000J/KG CAPE) ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO THAT WILL
INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS SO TEMPS AGAIN IN THE
MID 80S.

WHERE MODELS DIFFER IS ON HOW FAST THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH WITH GFS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. BOTH
MODELS SHOW UPPER TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH, SO NOT
EXPECTING A DEEPENING TROF LIKE WE`VE HAD LATELY. THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES, SO WENT WITH A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING AROUND ON WED. TEMPS A BIT COOLER
ON WED.

SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THU-FRI AS FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY
WESTERLY WITH WEAK TROFFING SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (80/60).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME IFR/LIFR FOG/BR EARLY THIS MORNING
AT MPV/SLK. WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS THROUGH
TODAY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF FOG/BR WILL LIKELY DEVELOP 08Z-11Z AT MPV/SLK...BUT
DENSITY AND COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR BRIEF THUNDERSTORM MAY ALSO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
LEFT OUT FOR NOW AS COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 7-10 KNOTS
AT RUT) TURN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISLD MVFR -SHRA OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MON...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LCL LIFR FG PSBL
KMPV/KSLK. TUE..MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE
NIGHT. WED...MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR POST FRONTAL -SHRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KBTV 040528
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
128 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MAINLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
LOOKS TO OCCUR BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF A
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 108 AM EDT SATURDAY...SEVERAL CHANGES MADE TO CURRENT
FORECAST BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS. HAVE
INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER AS LATEST IR SATL SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS OVERSPREADING OUR CWA AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...WITH MORE CLOUDS AND HIGHER SFC DEWPOINT THAN
EXPECTED...HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES. THINKING LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM MID 40S DACKS TO MID 50S CPV/SLV. LAST CHANGE WAS
TO INCREASE POPS FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING TIME PERIOD...AS
GUIDANCE SHOWS MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL PA/NY ADVECTING INTO OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA TODAY. EXPECTING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRECIP...AS HEAVIER RETURNS NOW ON RADAR WILL
WEAKEN AS MOISTURE ENCOUNTERS DEEP DRY LAYER PER 00Z ALBANY
SOUNDING. REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST
INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY, BELIEVE MODEL DEWPOINTS, RESULTANT PBL INSTABILITY AND
QPF OUTPUT IS OVERDONE WITH THIS FEATURE. LOW TO MID LEVEL BACK
TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS FROM TODAY`S HYSPLIT RUNS SUGGEST OUR SOURCE
AIR TOMORROW ORIGINATES FROM SOUTHERN NEW YORK INTO PENNSYLVANIA SO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ON LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SEEM
REASONABLE, JUST NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS. BEST
SHOT AT SEEING A STRAY SHOWER TOMORROW AFTERNOON APPEARS TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE WEAK PBL FLOW
WILL SUPPORT SLOPE FLOWS AND LOCALIZED THETA-E CONVERGENCE.
OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA JUST A TOKEN 10-20% THREAT WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING DRY OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. HIGHS TOMORROW GENERALLY
IN THE 70S UNDER VARIABLE MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER.

BY TOMORROW NIGHT AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION WITH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. AGAIN, QPF WILL BE LIGHT WITH COVERAGE BEING SCATTERED
AT BEST AND MANY AREAS REMAINING DRY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT MILDER GIVEN VARIABLE CLOUDS, MAINLY IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60.

BY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST WITH DEEP LAYER
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING IN EARNEST ACROSS THE REGION. OTHER THAN A
FEW LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS FAR NORTHEAST DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO EARLY JULY NORMALS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A HINT OF SUMMER NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR
JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUE.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT SHORT WAVE RIDGING MONDAY SHOULD BRING A
NICE WARM AND DRY DAY IN THE 80S WITH 850 TEMPS RISING TO 14-15C.

MODELS SIMILARLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY
(1000-2000J/KG CAPE) ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO THAT WILL
INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS SO TEMPS AGAIN IN THE
MID 80S.

WHERE MODELS DIFFER IS ON HOW FAST THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH WITH GFS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. BOTH
MODELS SHOW UPPER TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH, SO NOT
EXPECTING A DEEPENING TROF LIKE WE`VE HAD LATELY. THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES, SO WENT WITH A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING AROUND ON WED. TEMPS A BIT COOLER
ON WED.

SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THU-FRI AS FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY
WESTERLY WITH WEAK TROFFING SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (80/60).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME IFR/LIFR FOG/BR EARLY THIS MORNING
AT MPV/SLK. WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS THROUGH
TODAY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF FOG/BR WILL LIKELY DEVELOP 08Z-11Z AT MPV/SLK...BUT
DENSITY AND COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR BRIEF THUNDERSTORM MAY ALSO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
LEFT OUT FOR NOW AS COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 7-10 KNOTS
AT RUT) TURN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISLD MVFR -SHRA OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MON...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LCL LIFR FG PSBL
KMPV/KSLK. TUE..MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE
NIGHT. WED...MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR POST FRONTAL -SHRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KBTV 040528
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
128 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MAINLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
LOOKS TO OCCUR BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF A
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 108 AM EDT SATURDAY...SEVERAL CHANGES MADE TO CURRENT
FORECAST BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS. HAVE
INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER AS LATEST IR SATL SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS OVERSPREADING OUR CWA AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...WITH MORE CLOUDS AND HIGHER SFC DEWPOINT THAN
EXPECTED...HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES. THINKING LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM MID 40S DACKS TO MID 50S CPV/SLV. LAST CHANGE WAS
TO INCREASE POPS FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING TIME PERIOD...AS
GUIDANCE SHOWS MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL PA/NY ADVECTING INTO OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA TODAY. EXPECTING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRECIP...AS HEAVIER RETURNS NOW ON RADAR WILL
WEAKEN AS MOISTURE ENCOUNTERS DEEP DRY LAYER PER 00Z ALBANY
SOUNDING. REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST
INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY, BELIEVE MODEL DEWPOINTS, RESULTANT PBL INSTABILITY AND
QPF OUTPUT IS OVERDONE WITH THIS FEATURE. LOW TO MID LEVEL BACK
TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS FROM TODAY`S HYSPLIT RUNS SUGGEST OUR SOURCE
AIR TOMORROW ORIGINATES FROM SOUTHERN NEW YORK INTO PENNSYLVANIA SO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ON LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SEEM
REASONABLE, JUST NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS. BEST
SHOT AT SEEING A STRAY SHOWER TOMORROW AFTERNOON APPEARS TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE WEAK PBL FLOW
WILL SUPPORT SLOPE FLOWS AND LOCALIZED THETA-E CONVERGENCE.
OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA JUST A TOKEN 10-20% THREAT WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING DRY OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. HIGHS TOMORROW GENERALLY
IN THE 70S UNDER VARIABLE MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER.

BY TOMORROW NIGHT AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION WITH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. AGAIN, QPF WILL BE LIGHT WITH COVERAGE BEING SCATTERED
AT BEST AND MANY AREAS REMAINING DRY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT MILDER GIVEN VARIABLE CLOUDS, MAINLY IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60.

BY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST WITH DEEP LAYER
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING IN EARNEST ACROSS THE REGION. OTHER THAN A
FEW LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS FAR NORTHEAST DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO EARLY JULY NORMALS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A HINT OF SUMMER NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR
JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUE.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT SHORT WAVE RIDGING MONDAY SHOULD BRING A
NICE WARM AND DRY DAY IN THE 80S WITH 850 TEMPS RISING TO 14-15C.

MODELS SIMILARLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY
(1000-2000J/KG CAPE) ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO THAT WILL
INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS SO TEMPS AGAIN IN THE
MID 80S.

WHERE MODELS DIFFER IS ON HOW FAST THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH WITH GFS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. BOTH
MODELS SHOW UPPER TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH, SO NOT
EXPECTING A DEEPENING TROF LIKE WE`VE HAD LATELY. THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES, SO WENT WITH A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING AROUND ON WED. TEMPS A BIT COOLER
ON WED.

SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THU-FRI AS FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY
WESTERLY WITH WEAK TROFFING SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (80/60).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME IFR/LIFR FOG/BR EARLY THIS MORNING
AT MPV/SLK. WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS THROUGH
TODAY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF FOG/BR WILL LIKELY DEVELOP 08Z-11Z AT MPV/SLK...BUT
DENSITY AND COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR BRIEF THUNDERSTORM MAY ALSO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
LEFT OUT FOR NOW AS COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 7-10 KNOTS
AT RUT) TURN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISLD MVFR -SHRA OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MON...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LCL LIFR FG PSBL
KMPV/KSLK. TUE..MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE
NIGHT. WED...MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR POST FRONTAL -SHRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KBTV 040528
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
128 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MAINLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
LOOKS TO OCCUR BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF A
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 108 AM EDT SATURDAY...SEVERAL CHANGES MADE TO CURRENT
FORECAST BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS. HAVE
INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER AS LATEST IR SATL SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS OVERSPREADING OUR CWA AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...WITH MORE CLOUDS AND HIGHER SFC DEWPOINT THAN
EXPECTED...HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES. THINKING LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM MID 40S DACKS TO MID 50S CPV/SLV. LAST CHANGE WAS
TO INCREASE POPS FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING TIME PERIOD...AS
GUIDANCE SHOWS MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL PA/NY ADVECTING INTO OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA TODAY. EXPECTING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRECIP...AS HEAVIER RETURNS NOW ON RADAR WILL
WEAKEN AS MOISTURE ENCOUNTERS DEEP DRY LAYER PER 00Z ALBANY
SOUNDING. REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST
INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY, BELIEVE MODEL DEWPOINTS, RESULTANT PBL INSTABILITY AND
QPF OUTPUT IS OVERDONE WITH THIS FEATURE. LOW TO MID LEVEL BACK
TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS FROM TODAY`S HYSPLIT RUNS SUGGEST OUR SOURCE
AIR TOMORROW ORIGINATES FROM SOUTHERN NEW YORK INTO PENNSYLVANIA SO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ON LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SEEM
REASONABLE, JUST NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS. BEST
SHOT AT SEEING A STRAY SHOWER TOMORROW AFTERNOON APPEARS TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE WEAK PBL FLOW
WILL SUPPORT SLOPE FLOWS AND LOCALIZED THETA-E CONVERGENCE.
OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA JUST A TOKEN 10-20% THREAT WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING DRY OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. HIGHS TOMORROW GENERALLY
IN THE 70S UNDER VARIABLE MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER.

BY TOMORROW NIGHT AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION WITH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. AGAIN, QPF WILL BE LIGHT WITH COVERAGE BEING SCATTERED
AT BEST AND MANY AREAS REMAINING DRY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT MILDER GIVEN VARIABLE CLOUDS, MAINLY IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60.

BY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST WITH DEEP LAYER
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING IN EARNEST ACROSS THE REGION. OTHER THAN A
FEW LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS FAR NORTHEAST DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO EARLY JULY NORMALS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A HINT OF SUMMER NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR
JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUE.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT SHORT WAVE RIDGING MONDAY SHOULD BRING A
NICE WARM AND DRY DAY IN THE 80S WITH 850 TEMPS RISING TO 14-15C.

MODELS SIMILARLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY
(1000-2000J/KG CAPE) ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO THAT WILL
INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS SO TEMPS AGAIN IN THE
MID 80S.

WHERE MODELS DIFFER IS ON HOW FAST THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH WITH GFS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. BOTH
MODELS SHOW UPPER TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH, SO NOT
EXPECTING A DEEPENING TROF LIKE WE`VE HAD LATELY. THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES, SO WENT WITH A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING AROUND ON WED. TEMPS A BIT COOLER
ON WED.

SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THU-FRI AS FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY
WESTERLY WITH WEAK TROFFING SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (80/60).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME IFR/LIFR FOG/BR EARLY THIS MORNING
AT MPV/SLK. WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS THROUGH
TODAY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF FOG/BR WILL LIKELY DEVELOP 08Z-11Z AT MPV/SLK...BUT
DENSITY AND COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR BRIEF THUNDERSTORM MAY ALSO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
LEFT OUT FOR NOW AS COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 7-10 KNOTS
AT RUT) TURN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISLD MVFR -SHRA OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MON...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LCL LIFR FG PSBL
KMPV/KSLK. TUE..MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE
NIGHT. WED...MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR POST FRONTAL -SHRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KBTV 040511
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
111 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MAINLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
LOOKS TO OCCUR BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF A
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 108 AM EDT SATURDAY...SEVERAL CHANGES MADE TO CURRENT
FORECAST BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS. HAVE
INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER AS LATEST IR SATL SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS OVERSPREADING OUR CWA AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...WITH MORE CLOUDS AND HIGHER SFC DEWPOINT THAN
EXPECTED...HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES. THINKING LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM MID 40S DACKS TO MID 50S CPV/SLV. LAST CHANGE WAS
TO INCREASE POPS FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING TIME PERIOD...AS
GUIDANCE SHOWS MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL PA/NY ADVECTING INTO OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA TODAY. EXPECTING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRECIP...AS HEAVIER RETURNS NOW ON RADAR WILL
WEAKEN AS MOISTURE ENCOUNTERS DEEP DRY LAYER PER 00Z ALBANY
SOUNDING. REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST
INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY, BELIEVE MODEL DEWPOINTS, RESULTANT PBL INSTABILITY AND
QPF OUTPUT IS OVERDONE WITH THIS FEATURE. LOW TO MID LEVEL BACK
TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS FROM TODAY`S HYSPLIT RUNS SUGGEST OUR SOURCE
AIR TOMORROW ORIGINATES FROM SOUTHERN NEW YORK INTO PENNSYLVANIA SO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ON LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SEEM
REASONABLE, JUST NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS. BEST
SHOT AT SEEING A STRAY SHOWER TOMORROW AFTERNOON APPEARS TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE WEAK PBL FLOW
WILL SUPPORT SLOPE FLOWS AND LOCALIZED THETA-E CONVERGENCE.
OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA JUST A TOKEN 10-20% THREAT WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING DRY OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. HIGHS TOMORROW GENERALLY
IN THE 70S UNDER VARIABLE MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER.

BY TOMORROW NIGHT AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION WITH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. AGAIN, QPF WILL BE LIGHT WITH COVERAGE BEING SCATTERED
AT BEST AND MANY AREAS REMAINING DRY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT MILDER GIVEN VARIABLE CLOUDS, MAINLY IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60.

BY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST WITH DEEP LAYER
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING IN EARNEST ACROSS THE REGION. OTHER THAN A
FEW LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS FAR NORTHEAST DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO EARLY JULY NORMALS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A HINT OF SUMMER NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR
JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUE.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT SHORT WAVE RIDGING MONDAY SHOULD BRING A
NICE WARM AND DRY DAY IN THE 80S WITH 850 TEMPS RISING TO 14-15C.

MODELS SIMILARLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY
(1000-2000J/KG CAPE) ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO THAT WILL
INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS SO TEMPS AGAIN IN THE
MID 80S.

WHERE MODELS DIFFER IS ON HOW FAST THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH WITH GFS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. BOTH
MODELS SHOW UPPER TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH, SO NOT
EXPECTING A DEEPENING TROF LIKE WE`VE HAD LATELY. THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES, SO WENT WITH A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING AROUND ON WED. TEMPS A BIT COOLER
ON WED.

SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THU-FRI AS FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY
WESTERLY WITH WEAK TROFFING SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (80/60).

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME IFR/LIFR FOG/BR EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AT MPV/SLK. WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS
TONIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG/BR WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP 08Z-11Z AT MPV/SLK...BUT DENSITY AND COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED
TO BECOME WIDESPREAD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR BRIEF THUNDERSTORM MAY
ALSO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW AS COVERAGE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 7-10 KNOTS AT RUT) TURN SOUTHERLY AT
5-10 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISLD MVFR -SHRA OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MON...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LCL LIFR FG PSBL
KMPV/KSLK. TUE..MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE
NIGHT. WED...MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR POST FRONTAL -SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SISSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 040511
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
111 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MAINLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
LOOKS TO OCCUR BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF A
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 108 AM EDT SATURDAY...SEVERAL CHANGES MADE TO CURRENT
FORECAST BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS. HAVE
INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER AS LATEST IR SATL SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS OVERSPREADING OUR CWA AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...WITH MORE CLOUDS AND HIGHER SFC DEWPOINT THAN
EXPECTED...HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES. THINKING LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM MID 40S DACKS TO MID 50S CPV/SLV. LAST CHANGE WAS
TO INCREASE POPS FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING TIME PERIOD...AS
GUIDANCE SHOWS MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL PA/NY ADVECTING INTO OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA TODAY. EXPECTING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRECIP...AS HEAVIER RETURNS NOW ON RADAR WILL
WEAKEN AS MOISTURE ENCOUNTERS DEEP DRY LAYER PER 00Z ALBANY
SOUNDING. REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST
INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY, BELIEVE MODEL DEWPOINTS, RESULTANT PBL INSTABILITY AND
QPF OUTPUT IS OVERDONE WITH THIS FEATURE. LOW TO MID LEVEL BACK
TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS FROM TODAY`S HYSPLIT RUNS SUGGEST OUR SOURCE
AIR TOMORROW ORIGINATES FROM SOUTHERN NEW YORK INTO PENNSYLVANIA SO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ON LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SEEM
REASONABLE, JUST NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS. BEST
SHOT AT SEEING A STRAY SHOWER TOMORROW AFTERNOON APPEARS TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE WEAK PBL FLOW
WILL SUPPORT SLOPE FLOWS AND LOCALIZED THETA-E CONVERGENCE.
OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA JUST A TOKEN 10-20% THREAT WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING DRY OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. HIGHS TOMORROW GENERALLY
IN THE 70S UNDER VARIABLE MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER.

BY TOMORROW NIGHT AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION WITH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. AGAIN, QPF WILL BE LIGHT WITH COVERAGE BEING SCATTERED
AT BEST AND MANY AREAS REMAINING DRY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT MILDER GIVEN VARIABLE CLOUDS, MAINLY IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60.

BY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST WITH DEEP LAYER
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING IN EARNEST ACROSS THE REGION. OTHER THAN A
FEW LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS FAR NORTHEAST DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO EARLY JULY NORMALS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A HINT OF SUMMER NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR
JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUE.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT SHORT WAVE RIDGING MONDAY SHOULD BRING A
NICE WARM AND DRY DAY IN THE 80S WITH 850 TEMPS RISING TO 14-15C.

MODELS SIMILARLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY
(1000-2000J/KG CAPE) ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO THAT WILL
INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS SO TEMPS AGAIN IN THE
MID 80S.

WHERE MODELS DIFFER IS ON HOW FAST THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH WITH GFS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. BOTH
MODELS SHOW UPPER TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH, SO NOT
EXPECTING A DEEPENING TROF LIKE WE`VE HAD LATELY. THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES, SO WENT WITH A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING AROUND ON WED. TEMPS A BIT COOLER
ON WED.

SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THU-FRI AS FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY
WESTERLY WITH WEAK TROFFING SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (80/60).

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME IFR/LIFR FOG/BR EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AT MPV/SLK. WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS
TONIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG/BR WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP 08Z-11Z AT MPV/SLK...BUT DENSITY AND COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED
TO BECOME WIDESPREAD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR BRIEF THUNDERSTORM MAY
ALSO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW AS COVERAGE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 7-10 KNOTS AT RUT) TURN SOUTHERLY AT
5-10 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISLD MVFR -SHRA OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MON...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LCL LIFR FG PSBL
KMPV/KSLK. TUE..MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE
NIGHT. WED...MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR POST FRONTAL -SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SISSON




000
FXUS61 KALY 040502
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
102 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. GENERALLY DRY
AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT...HAPPY INDEPENDENCE DAY AS THE WEATHER REMAINS
RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NE. CLOUDS WERE
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
REGIONAL RADAR REVEALING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN WAS ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL PA. PER LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION WOULD PLACE THE
CATSKILLS INTO THE FIRST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER SHORTLY AFTER 10Z.
CURRENT GRIDS ARE IN EXCELLENT WITH POPS/WX AS NO CHANGES NEEDED.
MAIN UPDATE WAS TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPTS/WINDS/SKY PER OBSERVATIONS
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ALL THOSE GRIDS.
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE COOL FOR EARLY JULY AGAIN...GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OUT OF THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA. MOST OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL IN THE
AREA NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...ESP FROM AROUND
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH
OR LESS...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH DUE TO
THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE. NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FOR SAT NT...AFTER A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING...SKIES WILL BE CLEARING AND
TEMPS WILL DROP TO LOWS IN THE 50S. SOME UPPER 40S ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH WARMER TEMPS
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMPACTS THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
ANCHORED OVER THE REGION MONDAY RESULTING IN THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK FEATURING DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL INCREASINGLY MUGGY AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD ON
THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE.

DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF
THE REGION...AND A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE/PERHAPS A WEAK COASTAL LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN ITS MOVEMENT
AND RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AT NIGHT. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACTLY THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY BETWEEN TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN BY FRIDAY AND HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. CIGS WILL BE VERY HIGH
INITIALLY...THEN GRADUALLY LOWERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING BUT
REMAINING VFR.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON
SATURDAY...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION. STILL EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE PERSISTENT SHOWERS. MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AND OCCASIONAL.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. RAINFALL AMTS WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...WITH
SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THERE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM




000
FXUS61 KALY 040502
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
102 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. GENERALLY DRY
AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT...HAPPY INDEPENDENCE DAY AS THE WEATHER REMAINS
RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NE. CLOUDS WERE
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
REGIONAL RADAR REVEALING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN WAS ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL PA. PER LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION WOULD PLACE THE
CATSKILLS INTO THE FIRST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER SHORTLY AFTER 10Z.
CURRENT GRIDS ARE IN EXCELLENT WITH POPS/WX AS NO CHANGES NEEDED.
MAIN UPDATE WAS TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPTS/WINDS/SKY PER OBSERVATIONS
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ALL THOSE GRIDS.
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE COOL FOR EARLY JULY AGAIN...GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OUT OF THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA. MOST OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL IN THE
AREA NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...ESP FROM AROUND
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH
OR LESS...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH DUE TO
THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE. NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FOR SAT NT...AFTER A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING...SKIES WILL BE CLEARING AND
TEMPS WILL DROP TO LOWS IN THE 50S. SOME UPPER 40S ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH WARMER TEMPS
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMPACTS THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
ANCHORED OVER THE REGION MONDAY RESULTING IN THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK FEATURING DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL INCREASINGLY MUGGY AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD ON
THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE.

DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF
THE REGION...AND A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE/PERHAPS A WEAK COASTAL LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN ITS MOVEMENT
AND RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AT NIGHT. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACTLY THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY BETWEEN TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN BY FRIDAY AND HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. CIGS WILL BE VERY HIGH
INITIALLY...THEN GRADUALLY LOWERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING BUT
REMAINING VFR.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON
SATURDAY...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION. STILL EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE PERSISTENT SHOWERS. MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AND OCCASIONAL.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. RAINFALL AMTS WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...WITH
SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THERE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM



000
FXUS61 KALY 040502
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
102 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. GENERALLY DRY
AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT...HAPPY INDEPENDENCE DAY AS THE WEATHER REMAINS
RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NE. CLOUDS WERE
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
REGIONAL RADAR REVEALING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN WAS ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL PA. PER LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION WOULD PLACE THE
CATSKILLS INTO THE FIRST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER SHORTLY AFTER 10Z.
CURRENT GRIDS ARE IN EXCELLENT WITH POPS/WX AS NO CHANGES NEEDED.
MAIN UPDATE WAS TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPTS/WINDS/SKY PER OBSERVATIONS
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ALL THOSE GRIDS.
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE COOL FOR EARLY JULY AGAIN...GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OUT OF THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA. MOST OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL IN THE
AREA NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...ESP FROM AROUND
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH
OR LESS...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH DUE TO
THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE. NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FOR SAT NT...AFTER A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING...SKIES WILL BE CLEARING AND
TEMPS WILL DROP TO LOWS IN THE 50S. SOME UPPER 40S ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH WARMER TEMPS
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMPACTS THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
ANCHORED OVER THE REGION MONDAY RESULTING IN THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK FEATURING DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL INCREASINGLY MUGGY AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD ON
THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE.

DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF
THE REGION...AND A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE/PERHAPS A WEAK COASTAL LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN ITS MOVEMENT
AND RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AT NIGHT. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACTLY THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY BETWEEN TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN BY FRIDAY AND HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. CIGS WILL BE VERY HIGH
INITIALLY...THEN GRADUALLY LOWERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING BUT
REMAINING VFR.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON
SATURDAY...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION. STILL EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE PERSISTENT SHOWERS. MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AND OCCASIONAL.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. RAINFALL AMTS WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...WITH
SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THERE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM



000
FXUS61 KALY 040502
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
102 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. GENERALLY DRY
AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT...HAPPY INDEPENDENCE DAY AS THE WEATHER REMAINS
RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NE. CLOUDS WERE
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
REGIONAL RADAR REVEALING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN WAS ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL PA. PER LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION WOULD PLACE THE
CATSKILLS INTO THE FIRST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER SHORTLY AFTER 10Z.
CURRENT GRIDS ARE IN EXCELLENT WITH POPS/WX AS NO CHANGES NEEDED.
MAIN UPDATE WAS TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPTS/WINDS/SKY PER OBSERVATIONS
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ALL THOSE GRIDS.
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE COOL FOR EARLY JULY AGAIN...GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OUT OF THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA. MOST OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL IN THE
AREA NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...ESP FROM AROUND
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH
OR LESS...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH DUE TO
THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE. NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FOR SAT NT...AFTER A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING...SKIES WILL BE CLEARING AND
TEMPS WILL DROP TO LOWS IN THE 50S. SOME UPPER 40S ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH WARMER TEMPS
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMPACTS THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
ANCHORED OVER THE REGION MONDAY RESULTING IN THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK FEATURING DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL INCREASINGLY MUGGY AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD ON
THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE.

DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF
THE REGION...AND A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE/PERHAPS A WEAK COASTAL LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN ITS MOVEMENT
AND RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AT NIGHT. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACTLY THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY BETWEEN TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN BY FRIDAY AND HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. CIGS WILL BE VERY HIGH
INITIALLY...THEN GRADUALLY LOWERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING BUT
REMAINING VFR.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON
SATURDAY...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION. STILL EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE PERSISTENT SHOWERS. MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AND OCCASIONAL.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. RAINFALL AMTS WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...WITH
SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THERE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM



000
FXUS61 KALY 040502
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
102 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. GENERALLY DRY
AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT...HAPPY INDEPENDENCE DAY AS THE WEATHER REMAINS
RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NE. CLOUDS WERE
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
REGIONAL RADAR REVEALING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN WAS ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL PA. PER LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION WOULD PLACE THE
CATSKILLS INTO THE FIRST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER SHORTLY AFTER 10Z.
CURRENT GRIDS ARE IN EXCELLENT WITH POPS/WX AS NO CHANGES NEEDED.
MAIN UPDATE WAS TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPTS/WINDS/SKY PER OBSERVATIONS
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ALL THOSE GRIDS.
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE COOL FOR EARLY JULY AGAIN...GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OUT OF THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA. MOST OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL IN THE
AREA NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...ESP FROM AROUND
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH
OR LESS...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH DUE TO
THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE. NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FOR SAT NT...AFTER A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING...SKIES WILL BE CLEARING AND
TEMPS WILL DROP TO LOWS IN THE 50S. SOME UPPER 40S ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH WARMER TEMPS
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMPACTS THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
ANCHORED OVER THE REGION MONDAY RESULTING IN THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK FEATURING DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL INCREASINGLY MUGGY AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD ON
THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE.

DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF
THE REGION...AND A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE/PERHAPS A WEAK COASTAL LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN ITS MOVEMENT
AND RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AT NIGHT. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACTLY THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY BETWEEN TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN BY FRIDAY AND HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. CIGS WILL BE VERY HIGH
INITIALLY...THEN GRADUALLY LOWERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING BUT
REMAINING VFR.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON
SATURDAY...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION. STILL EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE PERSISTENT SHOWERS. MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AND OCCASIONAL.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. RAINFALL AMTS WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...WITH
SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THERE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM



000
FXUS61 KALY 040502
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
102 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. GENERALLY DRY
AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT...HAPPY INDEPENDENCE DAY AS THE WEATHER REMAINS
RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NE. CLOUDS WERE
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
REGIONAL RADAR REVEALING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN WAS ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL PA. PER LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION WOULD PLACE THE
CATSKILLS INTO THE FIRST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER SHORTLY AFTER 10Z.
CURRENT GRIDS ARE IN EXCELLENT WITH POPS/WX AS NO CHANGES NEEDED.
MAIN UPDATE WAS TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPTS/WINDS/SKY PER OBSERVATIONS
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ALL THOSE GRIDS.
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE COOL FOR EARLY JULY AGAIN...GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OUT OF THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA. MOST OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL IN THE
AREA NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...ESP FROM AROUND
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH
OR LESS...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH DUE TO
THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE. NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FOR SAT NT...AFTER A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING...SKIES WILL BE CLEARING AND
TEMPS WILL DROP TO LOWS IN THE 50S. SOME UPPER 40S ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH WARMER TEMPS
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMPACTS THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
ANCHORED OVER THE REGION MONDAY RESULTING IN THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK FEATURING DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL INCREASINGLY MUGGY AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD ON
THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE.

DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF
THE REGION...AND A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE/PERHAPS A WEAK COASTAL LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN ITS MOVEMENT
AND RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AT NIGHT. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACTLY THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY BETWEEN TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN BY FRIDAY AND HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. CIGS WILL BE VERY HIGH
INITIALLY...THEN GRADUALLY LOWERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING BUT
REMAINING VFR.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON
SATURDAY...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION. STILL EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE PERSISTENT SHOWERS. MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AND OCCASIONAL.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. RAINFALL AMTS WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...WITH
SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THERE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM



000
FXUS61 KBTV 040253
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1053 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MAINLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
LOOKS TO OCCUR BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF A
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1044 PM EDT FRIDAY...FAIR AND QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY
EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. FLOW ALOFT TURNING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST...AND THIS IS ALLOWING FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN THE HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREAD STILL SMALL ENOUGH LATER ON TO ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE FAVORED MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS. BASED
ON LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS...HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT
OVERNIGHT AND RAISED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO MOST AREAS. LOWS WILL
RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST
INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY, BELIEVE MODEL DEWPOINTS, RESULTANT PBL INSTABILITY AND
QPF OUTPUT IS OVERDONE WITH THIS FEATURE. LOW TO MID LEVEL BACK
TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS FROM TODAY`S HYSPLIT RUNS SUGGEST OUR SOURCE
AIR TOMORROW ORIGINATES FROM SOUTHERN NEW YORK INTO PENNSYLVANIA SO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ON LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SEEM
REASONABLE, JUST NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS. BEST
SHOT AT SEEING A STRAY SHOWER TOMORROW AFTERNOON APPEARS TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE WEAK PBL FLOW
WILL SUPPORT SLOPE FLOWS AND LOCALIZED THETA-E CONVERGENCE.
OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA JUST A TOKEN 10-20% THREAT WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING DRY OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. HIGHS TOMORROW GENERALLY
IN THE 70S UNDER VARIABLE MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER.

BY TOMORROW NIGHT AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION WITH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. AGAIN, QPF WILL BE LIGHT WITH COVERAGE BEING SCATTERED
AT BEST AND MANY AREAS REMAINING DRY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT MILDER GIVEN VARIABLE CLOUDS, MAINLY IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60.

BY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST WITH DEEP LAYER
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING IN EARNEST ACROSS THE REGION. OTHER THAN A
FEW LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS FAR NORTHEAST DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO EARLY JULY NORMALS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A HINT OF SUMMER NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR
JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUE.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT SHORT WAVE RIDGING MONDAY SHOULD BRING A
NICE WARM AND DRY DAY IN THE 80S WITH 850 TEMPS RISING TO 14-15C.

MODELS SIMILARLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY
(1000-2000J/KG CAPE) ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO THAT WILL
INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS SO TEMPS AGAIN IN THE
MID 80S.

WHERE MODELS DIFFER IS ON HOW FAST THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH WITH GFS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. BOTH
MODELS SHOW UPPER TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH, SO NOT
EXPECTING A DEEPENING TROF LIKE WE`VE HAD LATELY. THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES, SO WENT WITH A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING AROUND ON WED. TEMPS A BIT COOLER
ON WED.

SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THU-FRI AS FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY
WESTERLY WITH WEAK TROFFING SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (80/60).

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME IFR/LIFR FOG/BR EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AT MPV/SLK. WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS
TONIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG/BR WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP 08Z-11Z AT MPV/SLK...BUT DENSITY AND COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED
TO BECOME WIDESPREAD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR BRIEF THUNDERSTORM MAY
ALSO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW AS COVERAGE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 7-10 KNOTS AT RUT) TURN SOUTHERLY AT
5-10 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISLD MVFR -SHRA OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MON...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LCL LIFR FG PSBL
KMPV/KSLK. TUE..MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE
NIGHT. WED...MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR POST FRONTAL -SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 040253
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1053 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MAINLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
LOOKS TO OCCUR BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF A
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1044 PM EDT FRIDAY...FAIR AND QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY
EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. FLOW ALOFT TURNING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST...AND THIS IS ALLOWING FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN THE HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREAD STILL SMALL ENOUGH LATER ON TO ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE FAVORED MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEYS. BASED
ON LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS...HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT
OVERNIGHT AND RAISED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO MOST AREAS. LOWS WILL
RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST
INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY, BELIEVE MODEL DEWPOINTS, RESULTANT PBL INSTABILITY AND
QPF OUTPUT IS OVERDONE WITH THIS FEATURE. LOW TO MID LEVEL BACK
TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS FROM TODAY`S HYSPLIT RUNS SUGGEST OUR SOURCE
AIR TOMORROW ORIGINATES FROM SOUTHERN NEW YORK INTO PENNSYLVANIA SO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ON LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SEEM
REASONABLE, JUST NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS. BEST
SHOT AT SEEING A STRAY SHOWER TOMORROW AFTERNOON APPEARS TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE WEAK PBL FLOW
WILL SUPPORT SLOPE FLOWS AND LOCALIZED THETA-E CONVERGENCE.
OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA JUST A TOKEN 10-20% THREAT WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING DRY OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. HIGHS TOMORROW GENERALLY
IN THE 70S UNDER VARIABLE MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER.

BY TOMORROW NIGHT AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION WITH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. AGAIN, QPF WILL BE LIGHT WITH COVERAGE BEING SCATTERED
AT BEST AND MANY AREAS REMAINING DRY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT MILDER GIVEN VARIABLE CLOUDS, MAINLY IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60.

BY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST WITH DEEP LAYER
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING IN EARNEST ACROSS THE REGION. OTHER THAN A
FEW LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS FAR NORTHEAST DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO EARLY JULY NORMALS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A HINT OF SUMMER NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR
JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUE.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT SHORT WAVE RIDGING MONDAY SHOULD BRING A
NICE WARM AND DRY DAY IN THE 80S WITH 850 TEMPS RISING TO 14-15C.

MODELS SIMILARLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY
(1000-2000J/KG CAPE) ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO THAT WILL
INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS SO TEMPS AGAIN IN THE
MID 80S.

WHERE MODELS DIFFER IS ON HOW FAST THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH WITH GFS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. BOTH
MODELS SHOW UPPER TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH, SO NOT
EXPECTING A DEEPENING TROF LIKE WE`VE HAD LATELY. THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES, SO WENT WITH A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING AROUND ON WED. TEMPS A BIT COOLER
ON WED.

SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THU-FRI AS FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY
WESTERLY WITH WEAK TROFFING SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (80/60).

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME IFR/LIFR FOG/BR EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AT MPV/SLK. WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS
TONIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG/BR WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP 08Z-11Z AT MPV/SLK...BUT DENSITY AND COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED
TO BECOME WIDESPREAD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR BRIEF THUNDERSTORM MAY
ALSO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW AS COVERAGE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 7-10 KNOTS AT RUT) TURN SOUTHERLY AT
5-10 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISLD MVFR -SHRA OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MON...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LCL LIFR FG PSBL
KMPV/KSLK. TUE..MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE
NIGHT. WED...MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR POST FRONTAL -SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SISSON



000
FXUS61 KALY 040245
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1045 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. GENERALLY DRY
AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM EDT...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THIS
EVENING WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING. LATER TONIGHT...CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ANY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE SO WILL KEEP
ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER 6 AM SATURDAY. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE COOL AGAIN...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OUT OF THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA. MOST OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL IN THE
AREA NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...ESP FROM AROUND
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH
OR LESS...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH DUE TO
THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE. NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FOR SAT NT...AFTER A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING...SKIES WILL BE CLEARING AND
TEMPS WILL DROP TO LOWS IN THE 50S. SOME UPPER 40S ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH WARMER TEMPS
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMPACTS THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
ANCHORED OVER THE REGION MONDAY RESULTING IN THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK FEATURING DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL INCREASINGLY MUGGY AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD ON
THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE.

DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF
THE REGION...AND A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE/PERHAPS A WEAK COASTAL LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN ITS MOVEMENT
AND RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AT NIGHT. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACTLY THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY BETWEEN TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN BY FRIDAY AND HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. CIGS WILL BE VERY HIGH
INITIALLY...THEN GRADUALLY LOWERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING BUT
REMAINING VFR.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON
SATURDAY...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION. STILL EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE PERSISTENT SHOWERS. MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AND OCCASIONAL.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. RAINFALL AMTS WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...WITH
SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THERE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM



000
FXUS61 KALY 040245
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1045 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. GENERALLY DRY
AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM EDT...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THIS
EVENING WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING. LATER TONIGHT...CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ANY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE SO WILL KEEP
ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER 6 AM SATURDAY. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE COOL AGAIN...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OUT OF THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA. MOST OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL IN THE
AREA NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...ESP FROM AROUND
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH
OR LESS...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH DUE TO
THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE. NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FOR SAT NT...AFTER A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING...SKIES WILL BE CLEARING AND
TEMPS WILL DROP TO LOWS IN THE 50S. SOME UPPER 40S ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH WARMER TEMPS
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMPACTS THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
ANCHORED OVER THE REGION MONDAY RESULTING IN THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK FEATURING DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL INCREASINGLY MUGGY AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD ON
THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE.

DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF
THE REGION...AND A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE/PERHAPS A WEAK COASTAL LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN ITS MOVEMENT
AND RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AT NIGHT. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACTLY THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY BETWEEN TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN BY FRIDAY AND HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. CIGS WILL BE VERY HIGH
INITIALLY...THEN GRADUALLY LOWERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING BUT
REMAINING VFR.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON
SATURDAY...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION. STILL EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE PERSISTENT SHOWERS. MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AND OCCASIONAL.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. RAINFALL AMTS WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...WITH
SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THERE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM




000
FXUS61 KALY 032352
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
752 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. GENERALLY DRY
AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 752 PM EDT...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THIS
EVENING WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STARTING TO INCREASE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. LATER TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FURTHER AND THICKEN AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ANY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE SO
WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER 6 AM SATURDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE COOL AGAIN...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OUT OF THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA. MOST OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL IN THE
AREA NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...ESP FROM AROUND
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH
OR LESS...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH DUE TO
THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE. NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FOR SAT NT...AFTER A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING...SKIES WILL BE CLEARING AND
TEMPS WILL DROP TO LOWS IN THE 50S. SOME UPPER 40S ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH WARMER TEMPS
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMPACTS THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
ANCHORED OVER THE REGION MONDAY RESULTING IN THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK FEATURING DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL INCREASINGLY MUGGY AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD ON
THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE.

DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF
THE REGION...AND A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE/PERHAPS A WEAK COASTAL LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN ITS MOVEMENT
AND RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AT NIGHT. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACTLY THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY BETWEEN TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN BY FRIDAY AND HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. CIGS WILL BE VERY HIGH
INITIALLY...THEN GRADUALLY LOWERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING BUT
REMAINING VFR.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON
SATURDAY...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION. STILL EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE PERSISTENT SHOWERS. MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AND OCCASIONAL.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. RAINFALL AMTS WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...WITH
SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THERE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM



000
FXUS61 KALY 032352
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
752 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. GENERALLY DRY
AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 752 PM EDT...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THIS
EVENING WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STARTING TO INCREASE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. LATER TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FURTHER AND THICKEN AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ANY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE SO
WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER 6 AM SATURDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE COOL AGAIN...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OUT OF THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA. MOST OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL IN THE
AREA NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...ESP FROM AROUND
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH
OR LESS...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH DUE TO
THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE. NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FOR SAT NT...AFTER A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING...SKIES WILL BE CLEARING AND
TEMPS WILL DROP TO LOWS IN THE 50S. SOME UPPER 40S ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH WARMER TEMPS
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMPACTS THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
ANCHORED OVER THE REGION MONDAY RESULTING IN THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK FEATURING DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL INCREASINGLY MUGGY AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD ON
THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE.

DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF
THE REGION...AND A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE/PERHAPS A WEAK COASTAL LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN ITS MOVEMENT
AND RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AT NIGHT. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACTLY THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY BETWEEN TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN BY FRIDAY AND HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. CIGS WILL BE VERY HIGH
INITIALLY...THEN GRADUALLY LOWERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING BUT
REMAINING VFR.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON
SATURDAY...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION. STILL EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE PERSISTENT SHOWERS. MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AND OCCASIONAL.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. RAINFALL AMTS WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...WITH
SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THERE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM



000
FXUS61 KALY 032352
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
752 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. GENERALLY DRY
AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 752 PM EDT...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THIS
EVENING WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STARTING TO INCREASE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. LATER TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FURTHER AND THICKEN AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ANY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE SO
WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER 6 AM SATURDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE COOL AGAIN...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OUT OF THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA. MOST OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL IN THE
AREA NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...ESP FROM AROUND
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH
OR LESS...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH DUE TO
THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE. NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FOR SAT NT...AFTER A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING...SKIES WILL BE CLEARING AND
TEMPS WILL DROP TO LOWS IN THE 50S. SOME UPPER 40S ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH WARMER TEMPS
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMPACTS THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
ANCHORED OVER THE REGION MONDAY RESULTING IN THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK FEATURING DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL INCREASINGLY MUGGY AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD ON
THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE.

DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF
THE REGION...AND A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE/PERHAPS A WEAK COASTAL LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN ITS MOVEMENT
AND RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AT NIGHT. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACTLY THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY BETWEEN TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN BY FRIDAY AND HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. CIGS WILL BE VERY HIGH
INITIALLY...THEN GRADUALLY LOWERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING BUT
REMAINING VFR.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON
SATURDAY...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION. STILL EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE PERSISTENT SHOWERS. MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AND OCCASIONAL.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. RAINFALL AMTS WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...WITH
SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THERE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM



000
FXUS61 KALY 032352
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
752 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. GENERALLY DRY
AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 752 PM EDT...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THIS
EVENING WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STARTING TO INCREASE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. LATER TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FURTHER AND THICKEN AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ANY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE SO
WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER 6 AM SATURDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE COOL AGAIN...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OUT OF THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA. MOST OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL IN THE
AREA NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...ESP FROM AROUND
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH
OR LESS...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH DUE TO
THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE. NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FOR SAT NT...AFTER A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING...SKIES WILL BE CLEARING AND
TEMPS WILL DROP TO LOWS IN THE 50S. SOME UPPER 40S ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH WARMER TEMPS
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMPACTS THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
ANCHORED OVER THE REGION MONDAY RESULTING IN THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK FEATURING DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL INCREASINGLY MUGGY AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD ON
THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE.

DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF
THE REGION...AND A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE/PERHAPS A WEAK COASTAL LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN ITS MOVEMENT
AND RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AT NIGHT. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACTLY THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY BETWEEN TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN BY FRIDAY AND HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. CIGS WILL BE VERY HIGH
INITIALLY...THEN GRADUALLY LOWERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING BUT
REMAINING VFR.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON
SATURDAY...LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION. STILL EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE PERSISTENT SHOWERS. MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AND OCCASIONAL.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. RAINFALL AMTS WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...WITH
SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THERE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM



000
FXUS61 KBTV 032328
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
728 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MAINLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN
VERMONT LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS LOOKS TO
OCCUR BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT FRIDAY...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO CLOSE OUT THE DAY
AND SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION. MADE A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS FOR TONIGHT
BASED ON LATEST CONDITIONS AND NEAR TERM GUIDANCE...BUT OVERALL
FORECAST MOSTLY UNCHANGED. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S
WITH A LITTLE PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
SLOWLY EAST OFFSHORE THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THUS LOOKING AT MAINLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S WITH CUSTOMARY COOL SPOTS. SOME PATCHY BR/FG
AGAIN POSSIBLE, MOST FAVORED IN OUR EASTERN VERMONT HOLLOWS AND
RIVER BOTTOMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST
INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY, BELIEVE MODEL DEWPOINTS, RESULTANT PBL INSTABILITY AND
QPF OUTPUT IS OVERDONE WITH THIS FEATURE. LOW TO MID LEVEL BACK
TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS FROM TODAY`S HYSPLIT RUNS SUGGEST OUR SOURCE
AIR TOMORROW ORIGINATES FROM SOUTHERN NEW YORK INTO PENNSYLVANIA SO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ON LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SEEM
REASONABLE, JUST NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS. BEST
SHOT AT SEEING A STRAY SHOWER TOMORROW AFTERNOON APPEARS TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE WEAK PBL FLOW
WILL SUPPORT SLOPE FLOWS AND LOCALIZED THETA-E CONVERGENCE.
OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA JUST A TOKEN 10-20% THREAT WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING DRY OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. HIGHS TOMORROW GENERALLY
IN THE 70S UNDER VARIABLE MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER.

BY TOMORROW NIGHT AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION WITH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. AGAIN, QPF WILL BE LIGHT WITH COVERAGE BEING SCATTERED
AT BEST AND MANY AREAS REMAINING DRY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT MILDER GIVEN VARIABLE CLOUDS, MAINLY IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60.

BY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST WITH DEEP LAYER
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING IN EARNEST ACROSS THE REGION. OTHER THAN A
FEW LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS FAR NORTHEAST DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO EARLY JULY NORMALS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A HINT OF SUMMER NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR
JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUE.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT SHORT WAVE RIDGING MONDAY SHOULD BRING A
NICE WARM AND DRY DAY IN THE 80S WITH 850 TEMPS RISING TO 14-15C.

MODELS SIMILARLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY
(1000-2000J/KG CAPE) ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO THAT WILL
INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS SO TEMPS AGAIN IN THE
MID 80S.

WHERE MODELS DIFFER IS ON HOW FAST THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH WITH GFS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. BOTH
MODELS SHOW UPPER TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH, SO NOT
EXPECTING A DEEPENING TROF LIKE WE`VE HAD LATELY. THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES, SO WENT WITH A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING AROUND ON WED. TEMPS A BIT COOLER
ON WED.

SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THU-FRI AS FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY
WESTERLY WITH WEAK TROFFING SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (80/60).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME IFR/LIFR FOG/BR EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AT MPV/SLK. WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS
TONIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG/BR WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP 08Z-11Z AT MPV/SLK...BUT DENSITY AND COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED
TO BECOME WIDESPREAD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR BRIEF THUNDERSTORM MAY
ALSO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW AS COVERAGE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 7-10 KNOTS AT RUT) TURN SOUTHERLY AT
5-10 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISLD MVFR -SHRA OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MON...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LCL LIFR FG PSBL
KMPV/KSLK. TUE..MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE
NIGHT. WED...MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR POST FRONTAL -SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SISSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 032319
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
719 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MAINLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN
VERMONT LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS LOOKS TO
OCCUR BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT FRIDAY...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO CLOSE OUT THE DAY
AND SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION. MADE A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS FOR TONIGHT
BASED ON LATEST CONDITIONS AND NEAR TERM GUIDANCE...BUT OVERALL
FORECAST MOSTLY UNCHANGED. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S
WITH A LITTLE PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
SLOWLY EAST OFFSHORE THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THUS LOOKING AT MAINLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S WITH CUSTOMARY COOL SPOTS. SOME PATCHY BR/FG
AGAIN POSSIBLE, MOST FAVORED IN OUR EASTERN VERMONT HOLLOWS AND
RIVER BOTTOMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST
INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY, BELIEVE MODEL DEWPOINTS, RESULTANT PBL INSTABILITY AND
QPF OUTPUT IS OVERDONE WITH THIS FEATURE. LOW TO MID LEVEL BACK
TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS FROM TODAY`S HYSPLIT RUNS SUGGEST OUR SOURCE
AIR TOMORROW ORIGINATES FROM SOUTHERN NEW YORK INTO PENNSYLVANIA SO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ON LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SEEM
REASONABLE, JUST NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS. BEST
SHOT AT SEEING A STRAY SHOWER TOMORROW AFTERNOON APPEARS TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE WEAK PBL FLOW
WILL SUPPORT SLOPE FLOWS AND LOCALIZED THETA-E CONVERGENCE.
OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA JUST A TOKEN 10-20% THREAT WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING DRY OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. HIGHS TOMORROW GENERALLY
IN THE 70S UNDER VARIABLE MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER.

BY TOMORROW NIGHT AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION WITH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. AGAIN, QPF WILL BE LIGHT WITH COVERAGE BEING SCATTERED
AT BEST AND MANY AREAS REMAINING DRY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT MILDER GIVEN VARIABLE CLOUDS, MAINLY IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60.

BY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST WITH DEEP LAYER
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING IN EARNEST ACROSS THE REGION. OTHER THAN A
FEW LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS FAR NORTHEAST DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO EARLY JULY NORMALS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A HINT OF SUMMER NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR
JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUE.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT SHORT WAVE RIDGING MONDAY SHOULD BRING A
NICE WARM AND DRY DAY IN THE 80S WITH 850 TEMPS RISING TO 14-15C.

MODELS SIMILARLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY
(1000-2000J/KG CAPE) ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO THAT WILL
INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS SO TEMPS AGAIN IN THE
MID 80S.

WHERE MODELS DIFFER IS ON HOW FAST THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH WITH GFS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. BOTH
MODELS SHOW UPPER TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH, SO NOT
EXPECTING A DEEPENING TROF LIKE WE`VE HAD LATELY. THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES, SO WENT WITH A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING AROUND ON WED. TEMPS A BIT COOLER
ON WED.

SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THU-FRI AS FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY
WESTERLY WITH WEAK TROFFING SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (80/60).

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KSLK/KMPV DUE TO FOG AFT 06Z SAT.

SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. HIGH
CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS CLOUDS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT LOWERING FROM 30K FT DOWN TO 20K FT OR
EVEN A BIT LOWER SATURDAY. SOME CU DEVELOPMENT @ 5-6K FT POSSIBLE
AGAIN TOMORROW MIDDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT (10KTS OR LESS)WITH LOCAL SE LAKE WIND AT PBG
AND VARIABLE VALLEY/TERRAIN FORCED WINDS ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISLD MVFR -SHRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MON...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LCL LIFR FG PSBL KMPV/KSLK.
TUE..MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT.
WED...MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR POST FRONTAL -SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 032319
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
719 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MAINLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN
VERMONT LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS LOOKS TO
OCCUR BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT FRIDAY...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO CLOSE OUT THE DAY
AND SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION. MADE A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS FOR TONIGHT
BASED ON LATEST CONDITIONS AND NEAR TERM GUIDANCE...BUT OVERALL
FORECAST MOSTLY UNCHANGED. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S
WITH A LITTLE PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
SLOWLY EAST OFFSHORE THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THUS LOOKING AT MAINLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S WITH CUSTOMARY COOL SPOTS. SOME PATCHY BR/FG
AGAIN POSSIBLE, MOST FAVORED IN OUR EASTERN VERMONT HOLLOWS AND
RIVER BOTTOMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST
INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY, BELIEVE MODEL DEWPOINTS, RESULTANT PBL INSTABILITY AND
QPF OUTPUT IS OVERDONE WITH THIS FEATURE. LOW TO MID LEVEL BACK
TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS FROM TODAY`S HYSPLIT RUNS SUGGEST OUR SOURCE
AIR TOMORROW ORIGINATES FROM SOUTHERN NEW YORK INTO PENNSYLVANIA SO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ON LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SEEM
REASONABLE, JUST NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS. BEST
SHOT AT SEEING A STRAY SHOWER TOMORROW AFTERNOON APPEARS TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE WEAK PBL FLOW
WILL SUPPORT SLOPE FLOWS AND LOCALIZED THETA-E CONVERGENCE.
OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA JUST A TOKEN 10-20% THREAT WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING DRY OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. HIGHS TOMORROW GENERALLY
IN THE 70S UNDER VARIABLE MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER.

BY TOMORROW NIGHT AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION WITH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. AGAIN, QPF WILL BE LIGHT WITH COVERAGE BEING SCATTERED
AT BEST AND MANY AREAS REMAINING DRY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT MILDER GIVEN VARIABLE CLOUDS, MAINLY IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60.

BY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST WITH DEEP LAYER
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING IN EARNEST ACROSS THE REGION. OTHER THAN A
FEW LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS FAR NORTHEAST DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO EARLY JULY NORMALS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A HINT OF SUMMER NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR
JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUE.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT SHORT WAVE RIDGING MONDAY SHOULD BRING A
NICE WARM AND DRY DAY IN THE 80S WITH 850 TEMPS RISING TO 14-15C.

MODELS SIMILARLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY
(1000-2000J/KG CAPE) ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO THAT WILL
INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS SO TEMPS AGAIN IN THE
MID 80S.

WHERE MODELS DIFFER IS ON HOW FAST THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH WITH GFS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. BOTH
MODELS SHOW UPPER TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH, SO NOT
EXPECTING A DEEPENING TROF LIKE WE`VE HAD LATELY. THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES, SO WENT WITH A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING AROUND ON WED. TEMPS A BIT COOLER
ON WED.

SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THU-FRI AS FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY
WESTERLY WITH WEAK TROFFING SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (80/60).

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KSLK/KMPV DUE TO FOG AFT 06Z SAT.

SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. HIGH
CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS CLOUDS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT LOWERING FROM 30K FT DOWN TO 20K FT OR
EVEN A BIT LOWER SATURDAY. SOME CU DEVELOPMENT @ 5-6K FT POSSIBLE
AGAIN TOMORROW MIDDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT (10KTS OR LESS)WITH LOCAL SE LAKE WIND AT PBG
AND VARIABLE VALLEY/TERRAIN FORCED WINDS ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISLD MVFR -SHRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MON...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LCL LIFR FG PSBL KMPV/KSLK.
TUE..MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT.
WED...MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR POST FRONTAL -SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON



000
FXUS61 KALY 032041
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
441 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING. LATER TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ANY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OUT OF THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA. MOST OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL IN THE
AREA NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...ESP FROM AROUND
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH
OR LESS...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH DUE TO
THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE. NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FOR SAT NT...AFTER A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING...SKIES WILL BE CLEARING AND
TEMPS WILL DROP TO LOWS IN THE 50S. SOME UPPER 40S ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH WARMER TEMPS
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMPACTS THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
ANCHORED OVER THE REGION MONDAY RESULTING IN THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK FEATURING DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL INCREASINGLY MUGGY AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD ON
THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE.

DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF
THE REGION...AND A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE/PERHAPS A WEAK COASTAL LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN ITS MOVEMENT
AND RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AT NIGHT. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACTLY THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY BETWEEN TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN BY FRIDAY AND HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...

IT WILL BE A STELLAR FLYING AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH FEW-SCT CU
BASES FORMING AROUND 5000 FEET AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. THE
WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5KTS.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA...PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WILL
NEVERTHELESS SPREAD AN AREA OF RAIN TOWARD THE TAFS BETWEEN 14Z-
16Z. THERE IS A CHANCE THIS SHIELD WILL REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF
KGFL...AND FOR NOW...JUST HAVE VCSH IN THE TAF FROM 16Z ON.

FURTHER SOUTH WE EXPECT RAIN TO REACH KALB BY 16Z/KPSF BY 15Z AND
KPOU BY 14Z. AT THIS POINT WE INTRODUCE MVFR CIG CONDITIONS AT
KPSF AT 15Z...BUT HELD VFR AT THE OTHER TAF SITES DESPITE THE
RAIN. MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS MIGHT OCCASIONALLY DEVELOP
BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL JUST OUTSIDE THE TAF WINDOW LATER ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AT ALL THE TAF SITES.

THE WIND ON SATURDAY WILL BE VARIABLE TO NORTH AROUND 5KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCHC EVENING SHRAS.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. RAINFALL AMTS WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILLGENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...WITH
SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF INTERTATE 90. THERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM




000
FXUS61 KALY 032041
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
441 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING. LATER TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ANY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OUT OF THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA. MOST OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL IN THE
AREA NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...ESP FROM AROUND
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH
OR LESS...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH DUE TO
THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE. NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FOR SAT NT...AFTER A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING...SKIES WILL BE CLEARING AND
TEMPS WILL DROP TO LOWS IN THE 50S. SOME UPPER 40S ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH WARMER TEMPS
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMPACTS THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
ANCHORED OVER THE REGION MONDAY RESULTING IN THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK FEATURING DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL INCREASINGLY MUGGY AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD ON
THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE.

DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF
THE REGION...AND A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE/PERHAPS A WEAK COASTAL LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN ITS MOVEMENT
AND RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AT NIGHT. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACTLY THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY BETWEEN TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN BY FRIDAY AND HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...

IT WILL BE A STELLAR FLYING AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH FEW-SCT CU
BASES FORMING AROUND 5000 FEET AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. THE
WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5KTS.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA...PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WILL
NEVERTHELESS SPREAD AN AREA OF RAIN TOWARD THE TAFS BETWEEN 14Z-
16Z. THERE IS A CHANCE THIS SHIELD WILL REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF
KGFL...AND FOR NOW...JUST HAVE VCSH IN THE TAF FROM 16Z ON.

FURTHER SOUTH WE EXPECT RAIN TO REACH KALB BY 16Z/KPSF BY 15Z AND
KPOU BY 14Z. AT THIS POINT WE INTRODUCE MVFR CIG CONDITIONS AT
KPSF AT 15Z...BUT HELD VFR AT THE OTHER TAF SITES DESPITE THE
RAIN. MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS MIGHT OCCASIONALLY DEVELOP
BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL JUST OUTSIDE THE TAF WINDOW LATER ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AT ALL THE TAF SITES.

THE WIND ON SATURDAY WILL BE VARIABLE TO NORTH AROUND 5KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCHC EVENING SHRAS.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. RAINFALL AMTS WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILLGENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...WITH
SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF INTERTATE 90. THERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM



000
FXUS61 KALY 032041
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
441 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING. LATER TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ANY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OUT OF THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA. MOST OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL IN THE
AREA NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...ESP FROM AROUND
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH
OR LESS...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH DUE TO
THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE. NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FOR SAT NT...AFTER A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING...SKIES WILL BE CLEARING AND
TEMPS WILL DROP TO LOWS IN THE 50S. SOME UPPER 40S ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH WARMER TEMPS
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMPACTS THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
ANCHORED OVER THE REGION MONDAY RESULTING IN THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK FEATURING DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL INCREASINGLY MUGGY AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD ON
THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE.

DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF
THE REGION...AND A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE/PERHAPS A WEAK COASTAL LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN ITS MOVEMENT
AND RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AT NIGHT. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACTLY THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY BETWEEN TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN BY FRIDAY AND HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...

IT WILL BE A STELLAR FLYING AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH FEW-SCT CU
BASES FORMING AROUND 5000 FEET AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. THE
WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5KTS.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA...PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WILL
NEVERTHELESS SPREAD AN AREA OF RAIN TOWARD THE TAFS BETWEEN 14Z-
16Z. THERE IS A CHANCE THIS SHIELD WILL REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF
KGFL...AND FOR NOW...JUST HAVE VCSH IN THE TAF FROM 16Z ON.

FURTHER SOUTH WE EXPECT RAIN TO REACH KALB BY 16Z/KPSF BY 15Z AND
KPOU BY 14Z. AT THIS POINT WE INTRODUCE MVFR CIG CONDITIONS AT
KPSF AT 15Z...BUT HELD VFR AT THE OTHER TAF SITES DESPITE THE
RAIN. MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS MIGHT OCCASIONALLY DEVELOP
BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL JUST OUTSIDE THE TAF WINDOW LATER ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AT ALL THE TAF SITES.

THE WIND ON SATURDAY WILL BE VARIABLE TO NORTH AROUND 5KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCHC EVENING SHRAS.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. RAINFALL AMTS WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILLGENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...WITH
SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF INTERTATE 90. THERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM



000
FXUS61 KALY 032041
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
441 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING. LATER TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ANY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OUT OF THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA. MOST OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL IN THE
AREA NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...ESP FROM AROUND
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH
OR LESS...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH DUE TO
THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE. NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FOR SAT NT...AFTER A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING...SKIES WILL BE CLEARING AND
TEMPS WILL DROP TO LOWS IN THE 50S. SOME UPPER 40S ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH WARMER TEMPS
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMPACTS THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
ANCHORED OVER THE REGION MONDAY RESULTING IN THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK FEATURING DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL INCREASINGLY MUGGY AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD ON
THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE.

DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF
THE REGION...AND A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE/PERHAPS A WEAK COASTAL LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN ITS MOVEMENT
AND RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AT NIGHT. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACTLY THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY BETWEEN TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN BY FRIDAY AND HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...

IT WILL BE A STELLAR FLYING AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH FEW-SCT CU
BASES FORMING AROUND 5000 FEET AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. THE
WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5KTS.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA...PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WILL
NEVERTHELESS SPREAD AN AREA OF RAIN TOWARD THE TAFS BETWEEN 14Z-
16Z. THERE IS A CHANCE THIS SHIELD WILL REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF
KGFL...AND FOR NOW...JUST HAVE VCSH IN THE TAF FROM 16Z ON.

FURTHER SOUTH WE EXPECT RAIN TO REACH KALB BY 16Z/KPSF BY 15Z AND
KPOU BY 14Z. AT THIS POINT WE INTRODUCE MVFR CIG CONDITIONS AT
KPSF AT 15Z...BUT HELD VFR AT THE OTHER TAF SITES DESPITE THE
RAIN. MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS MIGHT OCCASIONALLY DEVELOP
BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL JUST OUTSIDE THE TAF WINDOW LATER ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AT ALL THE TAF SITES.

THE WIND ON SATURDAY WILL BE VARIABLE TO NORTH AROUND 5KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCHC EVENING SHRAS.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. RAINFALL AMTS WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILLGENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...WITH
SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF INTERTATE 90. THERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM



000
FXUS61 KALY 032041
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
441 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING. LATER TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ANY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OUT OF THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA. MOST OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL IN THE
AREA NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...ESP FROM AROUND
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH
OR LESS...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH DUE TO
THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE. NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. FOR SAT NT...AFTER A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING...SKIES WILL BE CLEARING AND
TEMPS WILL DROP TO LOWS IN THE 50S. SOME UPPER 40S ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH WARMER TEMPS
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMPACTS THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
ANCHORED OVER THE REGION MONDAY RESULTING IN THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK FEATURING DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL INCREASINGLY MUGGY AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD ON
THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE.

DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF
THE REGION...AND A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE/PERHAPS A WEAK COASTAL LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN ITS MOVEMENT
AND RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AT NIGHT. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACTLY THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY BETWEEN TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN BY FRIDAY AND HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...

IT WILL BE A STELLAR FLYING AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH FEW-SCT CU
BASES FORMING AROUND 5000 FEET AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. THE
WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5KTS.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA...PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WILL
NEVERTHELESS SPREAD AN AREA OF RAIN TOWARD THE TAFS BETWEEN 14Z-
16Z. THERE IS A CHANCE THIS SHIELD WILL REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF
KGFL...AND FOR NOW...JUST HAVE VCSH IN THE TAF FROM 16Z ON.

FURTHER SOUTH WE EXPECT RAIN TO REACH KALB BY 16Z/KPSF BY 15Z AND
KPOU BY 14Z. AT THIS POINT WE INTRODUCE MVFR CIG CONDITIONS AT
KPSF AT 15Z...BUT HELD VFR AT THE OTHER TAF SITES DESPITE THE
RAIN. MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS MIGHT OCCASIONALLY DEVELOP
BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL JUST OUTSIDE THE TAF WINDOW LATER ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AT ALL THE TAF SITES.

THE WIND ON SATURDAY WILL BE VARIABLE TO NORTH AROUND 5KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCHC EVENING SHRAS.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. RAINFALL AMTS WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILLGENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...WITH
SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF INTERTATE 90. THERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY EFFECT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM



000
FXUS61 KBTV 031922
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
322 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PROVIDE MAINLY FAIR AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OUTSIDE A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. THE NEXT CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS LOOKS TO
OCCUR BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT FRIDAY...ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST OFFSHORE THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THUS LOOKING AT MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS
TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH CUSTOMARY
COOL SPOTS. SOME PATCHY BR/FG AGAIN POSSIBLE, MOST FAVORED IN OUR
EASTERN VERMONT HOLLOWS AND RIVER BOTTOMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST
INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY, BELIEVE MODEL DEWPOINTS, RESULTANT PBL INSTABILITY AND
QPF OUTPUT IS OVERDONE WITH THIS FEATURE. LOW TO MID LEVEL BACK
TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS FROM TODAY`S HYSPLIT RUNS SUGGEST OUR SOURCE
AIR TOMORROW ORIGINATES FROM SOUTHERN NEW YORK INTO PENNSYLVANIA SO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ON LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SEEM
REASONABLE, JUST NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS. BEST
SHOT AT SEEING A STRAY SHOWER TOMORROW AFTERNOON APPEARS TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE WEAK PBL FLOW
WILL SUPPORT SLOPE FLOWS AND LOCALIZED THETA-E CONVERGENCE.
OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA JUST A TOKEN 10-20% THREAT WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING DRY OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. HIGHS TOMORROW GENERALLY
IN THE 70S UNDER VARIABLE MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER.

BY TOMORROW NIGHT AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION WITH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. AGAIN, QPF WILL BE LIGHT WITH COVERAGE BEING SCATTERED
AT BEST AND MANY AREAS REMAINING DRY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT MILDER GIVEN VARIABLE CLOUDS, MAINLY IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60.

BY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST WITH DEEP LAYER
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING IN EARNEST ACROSS THE REGION. OTHER THAN A
FEW LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS FAR NORTHEAST DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO EARLY JULY NORMALS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A HINT OF SUMMER NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR
JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUE.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT SHORT WAVE RIDGING MONDAY SHOULD BRING A
NICE WARM AND DRY DAY IN THE 80S WITH 850 TEMPS RISING TO 14-15C.

MODELS SIMILARLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY
(1000-2000J/KG CAPE) ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO THAT WILL
INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS SO TEMPS AGAIN IN THE
MID 80S.

WHERE MODELS DIFFER IS ON HOW FAST THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH WITH GFS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. BOTH
MODELS SHOW UPPER TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH, SO NOT
EXPECTING A DEEPENING TROF LIKE WE`VE HAD LATELY. THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES, SO WENT WITH A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING AROUND ON WED. TEMPS A BIT COOLER
ON WED.

SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THU-FRI AS FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY
WESTERLY WITH WEAK TROFFING SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (80/60).

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KSLK/KMPV DUE TO FOG AFT 06Z SAT.

SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. HIGH
CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS CLOUDS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT LOWERING FROM 30K FT DOWN TO 20K FT OR
EVEN A BIT LOWER SATURDAY. SOME CU DEVELOPMENT @ 5-6K FT POSSIBLE
AGAIN TOMORROW MIDDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT (10KTS OR LESS)WITH LOCAL SE LAKE WIND AT PBG
AND VARIABLE VALLEY/TERRAIN FORCED WINDS ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISLD MVFR -SHRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MON...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LCL LIFR FG PSBL KMPV/KSLK.
TUE..MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT.
WED...MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR POST FRONTAL -SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 031922
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
322 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PROVIDE MAINLY FAIR AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OUTSIDE A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. THE NEXT CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS LOOKS TO
OCCUR BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT FRIDAY...ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST OFFSHORE THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THUS LOOKING AT MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS
TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH CUSTOMARY
COOL SPOTS. SOME PATCHY BR/FG AGAIN POSSIBLE, MOST FAVORED IN OUR
EASTERN VERMONT HOLLOWS AND RIVER BOTTOMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST
INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY, BELIEVE MODEL DEWPOINTS, RESULTANT PBL INSTABILITY AND
QPF OUTPUT IS OVERDONE WITH THIS FEATURE. LOW TO MID LEVEL BACK
TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS FROM TODAY`S HYSPLIT RUNS SUGGEST OUR SOURCE
AIR TOMORROW ORIGINATES FROM SOUTHERN NEW YORK INTO PENNSYLVANIA SO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ON LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SEEM
REASONABLE, JUST NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS. BEST
SHOT AT SEEING A STRAY SHOWER TOMORROW AFTERNOON APPEARS TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE WEAK PBL FLOW
WILL SUPPORT SLOPE FLOWS AND LOCALIZED THETA-E CONVERGENCE.
OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA JUST A TOKEN 10-20% THREAT WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING DRY OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. HIGHS TOMORROW GENERALLY
IN THE 70S UNDER VARIABLE MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER.

BY TOMORROW NIGHT AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION WITH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. AGAIN, QPF WILL BE LIGHT WITH COVERAGE BEING SCATTERED
AT BEST AND MANY AREAS REMAINING DRY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT MILDER GIVEN VARIABLE CLOUDS, MAINLY IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60.

BY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST WITH DEEP LAYER
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING IN EARNEST ACROSS THE REGION. OTHER THAN A
FEW LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS FAR NORTHEAST DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO EARLY JULY NORMALS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A HINT OF SUMMER NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR
JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUE.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT SHORT WAVE RIDGING MONDAY SHOULD BRING A
NICE WARM AND DRY DAY IN THE 80S WITH 850 TEMPS RISING TO 14-15C.

MODELS SIMILARLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY
(1000-2000J/KG CAPE) ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO THAT WILL
INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS SO TEMPS AGAIN IN THE
MID 80S.

WHERE MODELS DIFFER IS ON HOW FAST THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH WITH GFS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. BOTH
MODELS SHOW UPPER TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH, SO NOT
EXPECTING A DEEPENING TROF LIKE WE`VE HAD LATELY. THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES, SO WENT WITH A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING AROUND ON WED. TEMPS A BIT COOLER
ON WED.

SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THU-FRI AS FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY
WESTERLY WITH WEAK TROFFING SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (80/60).

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KSLK/KMPV DUE TO FOG AFT 06Z SAT.

SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. HIGH
CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS CLOUDS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT LOWERING FROM 30K FT DOWN TO 20K FT OR
EVEN A BIT LOWER SATURDAY. SOME CU DEVELOPMENT @ 5-6K FT POSSIBLE
AGAIN TOMORROW MIDDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT (10KTS OR LESS)WITH LOCAL SE LAKE WIND AT PBG
AND VARIABLE VALLEY/TERRAIN FORCED WINDS ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISLD MVFR -SHRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MON...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LCL LIFR FG PSBL KMPV/KSLK.
TUE..MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT.
WED...MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR POST FRONTAL -SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 031922
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
322 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PROVIDE MAINLY FAIR AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OUTSIDE A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. THE NEXT CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS LOOKS TO
OCCUR BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT FRIDAY...ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST OFFSHORE THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THUS LOOKING AT MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS
TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH CUSTOMARY
COOL SPOTS. SOME PATCHY BR/FG AGAIN POSSIBLE, MOST FAVORED IN OUR
EASTERN VERMONT HOLLOWS AND RIVER BOTTOMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST
INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY, BELIEVE MODEL DEWPOINTS, RESULTANT PBL INSTABILITY AND
QPF OUTPUT IS OVERDONE WITH THIS FEATURE. LOW TO MID LEVEL BACK
TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS FROM TODAY`S HYSPLIT RUNS SUGGEST OUR SOURCE
AIR TOMORROW ORIGINATES FROM SOUTHERN NEW YORK INTO PENNSYLVANIA SO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ON LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SEEM
REASONABLE, JUST NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS. BEST
SHOT AT SEEING A STRAY SHOWER TOMORROW AFTERNOON APPEARS TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE WEAK PBL FLOW
WILL SUPPORT SLOPE FLOWS AND LOCALIZED THETA-E CONVERGENCE.
OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA JUST A TOKEN 10-20% THREAT WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING DRY OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. HIGHS TOMORROW GENERALLY
IN THE 70S UNDER VARIABLE MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER.

BY TOMORROW NIGHT AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION WITH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. AGAIN, QPF WILL BE LIGHT WITH COVERAGE BEING SCATTERED
AT BEST AND MANY AREAS REMAINING DRY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT MILDER GIVEN VARIABLE CLOUDS, MAINLY IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60.

BY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST WITH DEEP LAYER
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING IN EARNEST ACROSS THE REGION. OTHER THAN A
FEW LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS FAR NORTHEAST DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO EARLY JULY NORMALS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 322 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A HINT OF SUMMER NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISE TO OR
JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUE.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT SHORT WAVE RIDGING MONDAY SHOULD BRING A
NICE WARM AND DRY DAY IN THE 80S WITH 850 TEMPS RISING TO 14-15C.

MODELS SIMILARLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY
(1000-2000J/KG CAPE) ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SO THAT WILL
INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS SO TEMPS AGAIN IN THE
MID 80S.

WHERE MODELS DIFFER IS ON HOW FAST THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH WITH GFS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS IT THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. BOTH
MODELS SHOW UPPER TROF WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH, SO NOT
EXPECTING A DEEPENING TROF LIKE WE`VE HAD LATELY. THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE
PROBABILITIES, SO WENT WITH A BLEND WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HANGING AROUND ON WED. TEMPS A BIT COOLER
ON WED.

SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THU-FRI AS FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY
WESTERLY WITH WEAK TROFFING SO CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (80/60).

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KSLK/KMPV DUE TO FOG AFT 06Z SAT.

SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. HIGH
CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS CLOUDS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT LOWERING FROM 30K FT DOWN TO 20K FT OR
EVEN A BIT LOWER SATURDAY. SOME CU DEVELOPMENT @ 5-6K FT POSSIBLE
AGAIN TOMORROW MIDDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT (10KTS OR LESS)WITH LOCAL SE LAKE WIND AT PBG
AND VARIABLE VALLEY/TERRAIN FORCED WINDS ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISLD MVFR -SHRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MON...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LCL LIFR FG PSBL KMPV/KSLK.
TUE..MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT.
WED...MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR POST FRONTAL -SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 031910
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
310 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PROVIDE MAINKLY FAIR AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OUTSIDE A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. THE NEXT CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS LOOKS TO OCCUR
BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT FRIDAY...ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST OFFSHORE THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THUS LOOKING AT MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS
TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH CUSTOMARY
COOL SPOTS. SOME PATCHY BR/FG AGAIN POSSIBLE, MOST FAVORED IN OUR
EASTERN VERMONT HOLLOWS AND RIVER BOTTOMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST
INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY, BELIEVE MODEL DEWPOINTS, RESULTANT PBL INSTABILITY AND
QPF OUTPUT IS OVERDONE WITH THIS FEATURE. LOW TO MID LEVEL BACK
TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS FROM TODAY`S HYSPLIT RUNS SUGGEST OUR SOURCE
AIR TOMORROW ORIGINATES FROM SOUTHERN NEW YORK INTO PENNSYLVNIA SO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ON LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SEEM
REASONABLE, JUST NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS. BEST
SHOT AT SEEING A STRAY SHOWER TOMORROW AFTERNOON APPEARS TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE WEAK PBL FLOW
WILL SUPPORT SLOPE FLOWS AND LOCALIZED THETA-E CONVERGENCE.
OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA JUST A TOKEN 10-20% THREAT WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING DRY OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. HIGHS TOMORROW GENERALLY
IN THE 70S UNDER VARIABLE MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER.

BY TOMORROW NIGHT AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION WITH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. AGAIN, QPF WILL BE LIGHT WITH COVERAGE BEING SCATTERED
AT BEST AND MANY AREAS REMAINING DRY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT MILDER GIVEN VARIABLE CLOUDS, MAINLY IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60.

BY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST WITH DEEP LAYER
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING IN EARNEST ACROSS THE REGION. OTHER THAN A
FEW LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS FAR NORTHEAST DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO EARLY JULY NORMALS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUESTIONABLE AND FLUID FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A HINT OF SUMMER THEN PERHAPS A RETURN TO A JUNE
PATTERN.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY ADMIST A SPLIT FLOW AROSS NE
CONUS THEN THE APPROACH OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ALONG WITH
INTERACTION FROM A UPPER TROUGH AS PART OF THE SPLIT FLOW WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS/TSRA THREAT TUE AFTN THROUGH WED. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS IT MAY TRY TO HANG UP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS
INDICATED YESTERDAY AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THEREFORE...CAN`T
RULE OUT THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH END OF THE WEEK.

SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERRATURES AND DRY EARLY THEN A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS. NO HEAT WAVE AS ALONG AS WE STAY DOMINATED BY
NORTHERN CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH IS BEING SUGGESTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KSLK/KMPV DUE TO FOG AFT 06Z SAT.

SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT WILL DIMIMISH AROUND SUNSET. HIGH
CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATS CLOUDS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT LOWERING FROM 30K FT DOWN TO 20K FT OR EVEN A
BIT LOWER SATURDAY. SOME CU DEVELOPMENT @ 5-6K FT POSSIBLE AGAIN
TOMORROW MIDDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT (10KTS OR LESS)WITH LOCAL SE LAKE WIND AT PBG
AND VARIABLE VALLEY/TERRAIN FORCED WINDS ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISLD MVFR -SHRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MON...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LCL LIFR FG PSBL KMPV/KSLK.
TUE..MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT.
WED...MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR POST FRONTAL -SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 031910
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
310 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PROVIDE MAINKLY FAIR AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OUTSIDE A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. THE NEXT CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS LOOKS TO OCCUR
BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT FRIDAY...ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST OFFSHORE THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THUS LOOKING AT MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS
TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH CUSTOMARY
COOL SPOTS. SOME PATCHY BR/FG AGAIN POSSIBLE, MOST FAVORED IN OUR
EASTERN VERMONT HOLLOWS AND RIVER BOTTOMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST
INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY, BELIEVE MODEL DEWPOINTS, RESULTANT PBL INSTABILITY AND
QPF OUTPUT IS OVERDONE WITH THIS FEATURE. LOW TO MID LEVEL BACK
TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS FROM TODAY`S HYSPLIT RUNS SUGGEST OUR SOURCE
AIR TOMORROW ORIGINATES FROM SOUTHERN NEW YORK INTO PENNSYLVNIA SO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ON LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SEEM
REASONABLE, JUST NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS. BEST
SHOT AT SEEING A STRAY SHOWER TOMORROW AFTERNOON APPEARS TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE WEAK PBL FLOW
WILL SUPPORT SLOPE FLOWS AND LOCALIZED THETA-E CONVERGENCE.
OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA JUST A TOKEN 10-20% THREAT WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING DRY OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. HIGHS TOMORROW GENERALLY
IN THE 70S UNDER VARIABLE MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER.

BY TOMORROW NIGHT AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION WITH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. AGAIN, QPF WILL BE LIGHT WITH COVERAGE BEING SCATTERED
AT BEST AND MANY AREAS REMAINING DRY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT MILDER GIVEN VARIABLE CLOUDS, MAINLY IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60.

BY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST WITH DEEP LAYER
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING IN EARNEST ACROSS THE REGION. OTHER THAN A
FEW LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS FAR NORTHEAST DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO EARLY JULY NORMALS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUESTIONABLE AND FLUID FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A HINT OF SUMMER THEN PERHAPS A RETURN TO A JUNE
PATTERN.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY ADMIST A SPLIT FLOW AROSS NE
CONUS THEN THE APPROACH OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ALONG WITH
INTERACTION FROM A UPPER TROUGH AS PART OF THE SPLIT FLOW WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS/TSRA THREAT TUE AFTN THROUGH WED. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS IT MAY TRY TO HANG UP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS
INDICATED YESTERDAY AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THEREFORE...CAN`T
RULE OUT THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH END OF THE WEEK.

SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERRATURES AND DRY EARLY THEN A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS. NO HEAT WAVE AS ALONG AS WE STAY DOMINATED BY
NORTHERN CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH IS BEING SUGGESTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KSLK/KMPV DUE TO FOG AFT 06Z SAT.

SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT WILL DIMIMISH AROUND SUNSET. HIGH
CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATS CLOUDS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT LOWERING FROM 30K FT DOWN TO 20K FT OR EVEN A
BIT LOWER SATURDAY. SOME CU DEVELOPMENT @ 5-6K FT POSSIBLE AGAIN
TOMORROW MIDDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT (10KTS OR LESS)WITH LOCAL SE LAKE WIND AT PBG
AND VARIABLE VALLEY/TERRAIN FORCED WINDS ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISLD MVFR -SHRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MON...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LCL LIFR FG PSBL KMPV/KSLK.
TUE..MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT.
WED...MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR POST FRONTAL -SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 031910
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
310 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PROVIDE MAINKLY FAIR AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OUTSIDE A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. THE NEXT CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS LOOKS TO OCCUR
BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT FRIDAY...ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST OFFSHORE THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THUS LOOKING AT MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS
TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH CUSTOMARY
COOL SPOTS. SOME PATCHY BR/FG AGAIN POSSIBLE, MOST FAVORED IN OUR
EASTERN VERMONT HOLLOWS AND RIVER BOTTOMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST
INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY, BELIEVE MODEL DEWPOINTS, RESULTANT PBL INSTABILITY AND
QPF OUTPUT IS OVERDONE WITH THIS FEATURE. LOW TO MID LEVEL BACK
TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS FROM TODAY`S HYSPLIT RUNS SUGGEST OUR SOURCE
AIR TOMORROW ORIGINATES FROM SOUTHERN NEW YORK INTO PENNSYLVNIA SO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ON LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SEEM
REASONABLE, JUST NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS. BEST
SHOT AT SEEING A STRAY SHOWER TOMORROW AFTERNOON APPEARS TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE WEAK PBL FLOW
WILL SUPPORT SLOPE FLOWS AND LOCALIZED THETA-E CONVERGENCE.
OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA JUST A TOKEN 10-20% THREAT WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING DRY OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. HIGHS TOMORROW GENERALLY
IN THE 70S UNDER VARIABLE MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER.

BY TOMORROW NIGHT AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION WITH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. AGAIN, QPF WILL BE LIGHT WITH COVERAGE BEING SCATTERED
AT BEST AND MANY AREAS REMAINING DRY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH.
LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT MILDER GIVEN VARIABLE CLOUDS, MAINLY IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60.

BY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST WITH DEEP LAYER
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING IN EARNEST ACROSS THE REGION. OTHER THAN A
FEW LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS FAR NORTHEAST DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO EARLY JULY NORMALS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUESTIONABLE AND FLUID FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A HINT OF SUMMER THEN PERHAPS A RETURN TO A JUNE
PATTERN.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY ADMIST A SPLIT FLOW AROSS NE
CONUS THEN THE APPROACH OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ALONG WITH
INTERACTION FROM A UPPER TROUGH AS PART OF THE SPLIT FLOW WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS/TSRA THREAT TUE AFTN THROUGH WED. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS IT MAY TRY TO HANG UP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS
INDICATED YESTERDAY AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THEREFORE...CAN`T
RULE OUT THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH END OF THE WEEK.

SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERRATURES AND DRY EARLY THEN A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS. NO HEAT WAVE AS ALONG AS WE STAY DOMINATED BY
NORTHERN CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH IS BEING SUGGESTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KSLK/KMPV DUE TO FOG AFT 06Z SAT.

SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT WILL DIMIMISH AROUND SUNSET. HIGH
CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATS CLOUDS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT LOWERING FROM 30K FT DOWN TO 20K FT OR EVEN A
BIT LOWER SATURDAY. SOME CU DEVELOPMENT @ 5-6K FT POSSIBLE AGAIN
TOMORROW MIDDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT (10KTS OR LESS)WITH LOCAL SE LAKE WIND AT PBG
AND VARIABLE VALLEY/TERRAIN FORCED WINDS ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISLD MVFR -SHRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MON...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LCL LIFR FG PSBL KMPV/KSLK.
TUE..MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT.
WED...MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR POST FRONTAL -SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 031752
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
152 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. A FEW CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1023 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR
TODAY. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S STILL LOOK RIGHT ON TRACK AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE
BRIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. ENJOY YOUR DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES WITH
REGARDS TO THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WHICH FEATURES
MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. LATEST TRENDS IN
THE MODELS HAS BEEN FOR SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO TRACK FURTHER
NORTH ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO HANDLE NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE
PLENTY OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM VORT IS
LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL STREAK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...BEFORE GETTING SHEARED OUT TO OUR SOUTH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROF.
HOWEVER...LATEST TRENDS SHOW DEEPER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED 850
TO 700MB UVVS. GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
CWA...THINKING INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FALL APART
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FA ON SATURDAY AFTN. HAVE NOTED A STRONG RRQ
OF 25H JET LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL HELP PULL
PRECIP NORTH. GIVEN DYNAMICS AND LATEST TRENDS I WILL MENTION LOW
LIKELY POPS SOUTHERN RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AND TAPER OFF TO CHC
CENTRAL AND SCHC NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON SATURDAY. QPF
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA.
ANOTHER CHANGE WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...EXPECTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
IMPACTS OUR NORTHERN CWA. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
LIMITED...BUT 5H VORT IS PRETTY POTENT. WILL MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. QPF WILL BE LIGHT GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR FA BY 18Z
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C BY 00Z MONDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID
70S MTNS/NEK TO LOWER 80S CPV.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUESTIONABLE AND FLUID FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A HINT OF SUMMER THEN PERHAPS A RETURN TO A JUNE
PATTERN.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY ADMIST A SPLIT FLOW AROSS NE
CONUS THEN THE APPROACH OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ALONG WITH
INTERACTION FROM A UPPER TROUGH AS PART OF THE SPLIT FLOW WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS/TSRA THREAT TUE AFTN THROUGH WED. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS IT MAY TRY TO HANG UP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS
INDICATED YESTERDAY AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THEREFORE...CAN`T
RULE OUT THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH END OF THE WEEK.

SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERRATURES AND DRY EARLY THEN A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS. NO HEAT WAVE AS ALONG AS WE STAY DOMINATED BY
NORTHERN CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH IS BEING SUGGESTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KSLK/KMPV DUE TO FOG AFT 06Z SAT.

SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT WILL DIMIMISH AROUND SUNSET. HIGH
CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATS CLOUDS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT LOWERING FROM 30K FT DOWN TO 20K FT OR EVEN A
BIT LOWER SATURDAY. SOME CU DEVELOPMENT @ 5-6K FT POSSIBLE AGAIN
TOMORROW MIDDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT (10KTS OR LESS)WITH LOCAL SE LAKE WIND AT PBG
AND VARIABLE VALLEY/TERRAIN FORCED WINDS ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISLD MVFR -SHRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MON...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LCL LIFR FG PSBL KMPV/KSLK.
TUE..MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT.
WED...MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR POST FRONTAL -SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 031752
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
152 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. A FEW CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1023 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR
TODAY. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S STILL LOOK RIGHT ON TRACK AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE
BRIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. ENJOY YOUR DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES WITH
REGARDS TO THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WHICH FEATURES
MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. LATEST TRENDS IN
THE MODELS HAS BEEN FOR SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO TRACK FURTHER
NORTH ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO HANDLE NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE
PLENTY OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM VORT IS
LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL STREAK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...BEFORE GETTING SHEARED OUT TO OUR SOUTH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROF.
HOWEVER...LATEST TRENDS SHOW DEEPER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED 850
TO 700MB UVVS. GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
CWA...THINKING INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FALL APART
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FA ON SATURDAY AFTN. HAVE NOTED A STRONG RRQ
OF 25H JET LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL HELP PULL
PRECIP NORTH. GIVEN DYNAMICS AND LATEST TRENDS I WILL MENTION LOW
LIKELY POPS SOUTHERN RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AND TAPER OFF TO CHC
CENTRAL AND SCHC NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON SATURDAY. QPF
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA.
ANOTHER CHANGE WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...EXPECTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
IMPACTS OUR NORTHERN CWA. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
LIMITED...BUT 5H VORT IS PRETTY POTENT. WILL MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. QPF WILL BE LIGHT GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR FA BY 18Z
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C BY 00Z MONDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID
70S MTNS/NEK TO LOWER 80S CPV.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUESTIONABLE AND FLUID FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A HINT OF SUMMER THEN PERHAPS A RETURN TO A JUNE
PATTERN.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY ADMIST A SPLIT FLOW AROSS NE
CONUS THEN THE APPROACH OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ALONG WITH
INTERACTION FROM A UPPER TROUGH AS PART OF THE SPLIT FLOW WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS/TSRA THREAT TUE AFTN THROUGH WED. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS IT MAY TRY TO HANG UP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS
INDICATED YESTERDAY AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THEREFORE...CAN`T
RULE OUT THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH END OF THE WEEK.

SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERRATURES AND DRY EARLY THEN A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS. NO HEAT WAVE AS ALONG AS WE STAY DOMINATED BY
NORTHERN CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH IS BEING SUGGESTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KSLK/KMPV DUE TO FOG AFT 06Z SAT.

SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT WILL DIMIMISH AROUND SUNSET. HIGH
CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATS CLOUDS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT LOWERING FROM 30K FT DOWN TO 20K FT OR EVEN A
BIT LOWER SATURDAY. SOME CU DEVELOPMENT @ 5-6K FT POSSIBLE AGAIN
TOMORROW MIDDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT (10KTS OR LESS)WITH LOCAL SE LAKE WIND AT PBG
AND VARIABLE VALLEY/TERRAIN FORCED WINDS ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISLD MVFR -SHRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MON...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LCL LIFR FG PSBL KMPV/KSLK.
TUE..MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT.
WED...MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR POST FRONTAL -SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 031752
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
152 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. A FEW CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1023 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR
TODAY. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S STILL LOOK RIGHT ON TRACK AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE
BRIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. ENJOY YOUR DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES WITH
REGARDS TO THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WHICH FEATURES
MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. LATEST TRENDS IN
THE MODELS HAS BEEN FOR SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO TRACK FURTHER
NORTH ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO HANDLE NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE
PLENTY OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM VORT IS
LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL STREAK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...BEFORE GETTING SHEARED OUT TO OUR SOUTH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROF.
HOWEVER...LATEST TRENDS SHOW DEEPER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED 850
TO 700MB UVVS. GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
CWA...THINKING INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FALL APART
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FA ON SATURDAY AFTN. HAVE NOTED A STRONG RRQ
OF 25H JET LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL HELP PULL
PRECIP NORTH. GIVEN DYNAMICS AND LATEST TRENDS I WILL MENTION LOW
LIKELY POPS SOUTHERN RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AND TAPER OFF TO CHC
CENTRAL AND SCHC NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON SATURDAY. QPF
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA.
ANOTHER CHANGE WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...EXPECTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
IMPACTS OUR NORTHERN CWA. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
LIMITED...BUT 5H VORT IS PRETTY POTENT. WILL MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. QPF WILL BE LIGHT GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR FA BY 18Z
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C BY 00Z MONDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID
70S MTNS/NEK TO LOWER 80S CPV.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUESTIONABLE AND FLUID FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A HINT OF SUMMER THEN PERHAPS A RETURN TO A JUNE
PATTERN.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY ADMIST A SPLIT FLOW AROSS NE
CONUS THEN THE APPROACH OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ALONG WITH
INTERACTION FROM A UPPER TROUGH AS PART OF THE SPLIT FLOW WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS/TSRA THREAT TUE AFTN THROUGH WED. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS IT MAY TRY TO HANG UP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS
INDICATED YESTERDAY AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THEREFORE...CAN`T
RULE OUT THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH END OF THE WEEK.

SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERRATURES AND DRY EARLY THEN A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS. NO HEAT WAVE AS ALONG AS WE STAY DOMINATED BY
NORTHERN CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH IS BEING SUGGESTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KSLK/KMPV DUE TO FOG AFT 06Z SAT.

SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT WILL DIMIMISH AROUND SUNSET. HIGH
CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATS CLOUDS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT LOWERING FROM 30K FT DOWN TO 20K FT OR EVEN A
BIT LOWER SATURDAY. SOME CU DEVELOPMENT @ 5-6K FT POSSIBLE AGAIN
TOMORROW MIDDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT (10KTS OR LESS)WITH LOCAL SE LAKE WIND AT PBG
AND VARIABLE VALLEY/TERRAIN FORCED WINDS ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISLD MVFR -SHRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MON...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LCL LIFR FG PSBL KMPV/KSLK.
TUE..MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT.
WED...MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR POST FRONTAL -SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SISSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 031752
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
152 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. A FEW CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1023 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR
TODAY. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S STILL LOOK RIGHT ON TRACK AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE
BRIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. ENJOY YOUR DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES WITH
REGARDS TO THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WHICH FEATURES
MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. LATEST TRENDS IN
THE MODELS HAS BEEN FOR SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO TRACK FURTHER
NORTH ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO HANDLE NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE
PLENTY OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM VORT IS
LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL STREAK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...BEFORE GETTING SHEARED OUT TO OUR SOUTH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROF.
HOWEVER...LATEST TRENDS SHOW DEEPER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED 850
TO 700MB UVVS. GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
CWA...THINKING INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FALL APART
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FA ON SATURDAY AFTN. HAVE NOTED A STRONG RRQ
OF 25H JET LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL HELP PULL
PRECIP NORTH. GIVEN DYNAMICS AND LATEST TRENDS I WILL MENTION LOW
LIKELY POPS SOUTHERN RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AND TAPER OFF TO CHC
CENTRAL AND SCHC NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON SATURDAY. QPF
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA.
ANOTHER CHANGE WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...EXPECTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
IMPACTS OUR NORTHERN CWA. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
LIMITED...BUT 5H VORT IS PRETTY POTENT. WILL MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. QPF WILL BE LIGHT GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR FA BY 18Z
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C BY 00Z MONDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID
70S MTNS/NEK TO LOWER 80S CPV.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUESTIONABLE AND FLUID FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A HINT OF SUMMER THEN PERHAPS A RETURN TO A JUNE
PATTERN.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY ADMIST A SPLIT FLOW AROSS NE
CONUS THEN THE APPROACH OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ALONG WITH
INTERACTION FROM A UPPER TROUGH AS PART OF THE SPLIT FLOW WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS/TSRA THREAT TUE AFTN THROUGH WED. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS IT MAY TRY TO HANG UP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS
INDICATED YESTERDAY AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THEREFORE...CAN`T
RULE OUT THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH END OF THE WEEK.

SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERRATURES AND DRY EARLY THEN A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS. NO HEAT WAVE AS ALONG AS WE STAY DOMINATED BY
NORTHERN CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH IS BEING SUGGESTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KSLK/KMPV DUE TO FOG AFT 06Z SAT.

SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT WILL DIMIMISH AROUND SUNSET. HIGH
CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATS CLOUDS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT LOWERING FROM 30K FT DOWN TO 20K FT OR EVEN A
BIT LOWER SATURDAY. SOME CU DEVELOPMENT @ 5-6K FT POSSIBLE AGAIN
TOMORROW MIDDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT (10KTS OR LESS)WITH LOCAL SE LAKE WIND AT PBG
AND VARIABLE VALLEY/TERRAIN FORCED WINDS ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISLD MVFR -SHRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MON...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LCL LIFR FG PSBL KMPV/KSLK.
TUE..MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT.
WED...MAINLY VFR. SCT MVFR POST FRONTAL -SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SISSON



000
FXUS61 KALY 031745
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH JUST A FEW CUMULUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR TEMPS
ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS UPDATE.

EXPECT A MAINLY SUNNY SKY FOR THE REST OF TODAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN MOST VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS
MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SATURDAY FORECAST...

FRI NT...CLEAR AND COOL TO START...THEN INCREASING/THICKENING
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT PERHAPS 45-50 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE APPEARS TO SHEAR OUT AND
LIFT FURTHER NORTHWARD...BRINGING SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF
STEADY RAIN TO AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...ESP FROM AROUND MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NEARLY
ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THIS FEATURE AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH QPF...AS IT IMPLIES A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. THE GFS LATELY HAS BEEN TOO WET WITH QPF...SO HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO A LIGHTER NAM/ECMWF BLEND OF QPF. NEVERTHELESS...THIS
STILL WOULD GIVE A PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN TO AT
LEAST THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AGAIN
MAINLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS
POTENTIAL STEADIER RAINFALL...WITH LIKELY POPS INDICATED FROM
ABOUT I-90 SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL TRENDS TO SEE
IF THIS STEADIER RAIN SHIELD TRENDS EVEN FURTHER NORTH...OR
ACTUALLY BACKS SOUTHWARD YET AGAIN. IT APPEARS THAT THE TIMING OF
THIS SOUTHERN IMPULSE MAY BE JUST QUICK ENOUGH FOR THE STEADIER
RAIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...ESP CLOSER TO
I-90...AND POSSIBLY AROUND SUNSET EVEN TO THE SOUTH. SO...DESPITE
SOME POTENTIALLY WET WEATHER DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THERE
REMAINS A CHANCE THAT RAIN ENDS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER NIGHTFALL. THE
NORTHERN IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH STILL STRONG...SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
LATER SAT NT OR EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL
BE SHUNTED EAST OF THIS SECOND IMPULSE BY THE LEAD ONE...AND THE
CURRENT TIMING WOULD ALSO BRING IT THROUGH AT NIGHT WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY THUNDER OR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FOR LATER SAT NT.

WITH THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TOWARD MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
RAIN...HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS...RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH
ONLY LOWER/MID 70S EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90...AND 65-70 TO
THE SOUTH. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON THE NORTHERN SHIELD OF STEADIER
RAIN...MAX TEMPS COULD BE ADJUSTED UP OR DOWN YET AGAIN. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT...SHOULD THE STEADIER RAIN PERSIST LONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH...THAT SOME AREAS MAY ONLY REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S ON SATURDAY. FOR SAT NT...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY CLEARING
DEVELOPS...AND IF SAT MAX TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE...IT
MAY BE QUITE CHILLY AS A BRIEF WINDOW OF DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING ENSUES. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
MANY AREAS...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME 40S...ESP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES. AREAS OF FOG
COULD FORM LATE AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SECOND IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH RISING MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS IN
ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL MAY STILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT LATER
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...SLIGHT CHC POPS
HAVE BEEN INDICATED IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY WARMER
WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAINLY CLEAR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE A COASTAL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...

IT WILL BE A STELLAR FLYING AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH FEW-SCT CU
BASES FORMING AROUND 5000 FEET AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. THE
WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5KTS.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA...PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WILL
NEVERTHELESS SPREAD AN AREA OF RAIN TOWARD THE TAFS BETWEEN 14Z-
16Z. THERE IS A CHANCE THIS SHIELD WILL REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF
KGFL...AND FOR NOW...JUST HAVE VCSH IN THE TAF FROM 16Z ON.

FURTHER SOUTH WE EXPECT RAIN TO REACH KALB BY 16Z/KPSF BY 15Z AND
KPOU BY 14Z. AT THIS POINT WE INTRODUCE MVFR CIG CONDITIONS AT
KPSF AT 15Z...BUT HELD VFR AT THE OTHER TAF SITES DESPITE THE
RAIN. MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS MIGHT OCCASIONALLY DEVELOP
BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL JUST OUTSIDE THE TAF WINDOW LATER ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AT ALL THE TAF SITES.

THE WIND ON SATURDAY WILL BE VARIABLE TO NORTH AROUND 5KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCHC EVENING SHRAS.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
RAINFALL AMTS IN THIS REGION SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH...TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS
ARE POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
FURTHER NORTH...RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH.

RIVER LEVELS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL TODAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN MAY HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY SAT AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE RAIN.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...IRL/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 031745
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH JUST A FEW CUMULUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR TEMPS
ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS UPDATE.

EXPECT A MAINLY SUNNY SKY FOR THE REST OF TODAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN MOST VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS
MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SATURDAY FORECAST...

FRI NT...CLEAR AND COOL TO START...THEN INCREASING/THICKENING
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT PERHAPS 45-50 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE APPEARS TO SHEAR OUT AND
LIFT FURTHER NORTHWARD...BRINGING SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF
STEADY RAIN TO AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...ESP FROM AROUND MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NEARLY
ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THIS FEATURE AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH QPF...AS IT IMPLIES A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. THE GFS LATELY HAS BEEN TOO WET WITH QPF...SO HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO A LIGHTER NAM/ECMWF BLEND OF QPF. NEVERTHELESS...THIS
STILL WOULD GIVE A PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN TO AT
LEAST THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AGAIN
MAINLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS
POTENTIAL STEADIER RAINFALL...WITH LIKELY POPS INDICATED FROM
ABOUT I-90 SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL TRENDS TO SEE
IF THIS STEADIER RAIN SHIELD TRENDS EVEN FURTHER NORTH...OR
ACTUALLY BACKS SOUTHWARD YET AGAIN. IT APPEARS THAT THE TIMING OF
THIS SOUTHERN IMPULSE MAY BE JUST QUICK ENOUGH FOR THE STEADIER
RAIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...ESP CLOSER TO
I-90...AND POSSIBLY AROUND SUNSET EVEN TO THE SOUTH. SO...DESPITE
SOME POTENTIALLY WET WEATHER DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THERE
REMAINS A CHANCE THAT RAIN ENDS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER NIGHTFALL. THE
NORTHERN IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH STILL STRONG...SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
LATER SAT NT OR EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL
BE SHUNTED EAST OF THIS SECOND IMPULSE BY THE LEAD ONE...AND THE
CURRENT TIMING WOULD ALSO BRING IT THROUGH AT NIGHT WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY THUNDER OR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FOR LATER SAT NT.

WITH THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TOWARD MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
RAIN...HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS...RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH
ONLY LOWER/MID 70S EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90...AND 65-70 TO
THE SOUTH. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON THE NORTHERN SHIELD OF STEADIER
RAIN...MAX TEMPS COULD BE ADJUSTED UP OR DOWN YET AGAIN. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT...SHOULD THE STEADIER RAIN PERSIST LONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH...THAT SOME AREAS MAY ONLY REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S ON SATURDAY. FOR SAT NT...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY CLEARING
DEVELOPS...AND IF SAT MAX TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE...IT
MAY BE QUITE CHILLY AS A BRIEF WINDOW OF DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING ENSUES. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
MANY AREAS...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME 40S...ESP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES. AREAS OF FOG
COULD FORM LATE AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SECOND IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH RISING MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS IN
ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL MAY STILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT LATER
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...SLIGHT CHC POPS
HAVE BEEN INDICATED IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY WARMER
WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAINLY CLEAR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE A COASTAL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...

IT WILL BE A STELLAR FLYING AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH FEW-SCT CU
BASES FORMING AROUND 5000 FEET AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. THE
WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5KTS.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA...PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WILL
NEVERTHELESS SPREAD AN AREA OF RAIN TOWARD THE TAFS BETWEEN 14Z-
16Z. THERE IS A CHANCE THIS SHIELD WILL REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF
KGFL...AND FOR NOW...JUST HAVE VCSH IN THE TAF FROM 16Z ON.

FURTHER SOUTH WE EXPECT RAIN TO REACH KALB BY 16Z/KPSF BY 15Z AND
KPOU BY 14Z. AT THIS POINT WE INTRODUCE MVFR CIG CONDITIONS AT
KPSF AT 15Z...BUT HELD VFR AT THE OTHER TAF SITES DESPITE THE
RAIN. MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS MIGHT OCCASIONALLY DEVELOP
BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL JUST OUTSIDE THE TAF WINDOW LATER ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AT ALL THE TAF SITES.

THE WIND ON SATURDAY WILL BE VARIABLE TO NORTH AROUND 5KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCHC EVENING SHRAS.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
RAINFALL AMTS IN THIS REGION SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH...TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS
ARE POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
FURTHER NORTH...RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH.

RIVER LEVELS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL TODAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN MAY HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY SAT AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE RAIN.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...IRL/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 031745
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH JUST A FEW CUMULUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR TEMPS
ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS UPDATE.

EXPECT A MAINLY SUNNY SKY FOR THE REST OF TODAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN MOST VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS
MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SATURDAY FORECAST...

FRI NT...CLEAR AND COOL TO START...THEN INCREASING/THICKENING
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT PERHAPS 45-50 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE APPEARS TO SHEAR OUT AND
LIFT FURTHER NORTHWARD...BRINGING SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF
STEADY RAIN TO AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...ESP FROM AROUND MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NEARLY
ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THIS FEATURE AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH QPF...AS IT IMPLIES A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. THE GFS LATELY HAS BEEN TOO WET WITH QPF...SO HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO A LIGHTER NAM/ECMWF BLEND OF QPF. NEVERTHELESS...THIS
STILL WOULD GIVE A PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN TO AT
LEAST THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AGAIN
MAINLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS
POTENTIAL STEADIER RAINFALL...WITH LIKELY POPS INDICATED FROM
ABOUT I-90 SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL TRENDS TO SEE
IF THIS STEADIER RAIN SHIELD TRENDS EVEN FURTHER NORTH...OR
ACTUALLY BACKS SOUTHWARD YET AGAIN. IT APPEARS THAT THE TIMING OF
THIS SOUTHERN IMPULSE MAY BE JUST QUICK ENOUGH FOR THE STEADIER
RAIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...ESP CLOSER TO
I-90...AND POSSIBLY AROUND SUNSET EVEN TO THE SOUTH. SO...DESPITE
SOME POTENTIALLY WET WEATHER DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THERE
REMAINS A CHANCE THAT RAIN ENDS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER NIGHTFALL. THE
NORTHERN IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH STILL STRONG...SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
LATER SAT NT OR EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL
BE SHUNTED EAST OF THIS SECOND IMPULSE BY THE LEAD ONE...AND THE
CURRENT TIMING WOULD ALSO BRING IT THROUGH AT NIGHT WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY THUNDER OR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FOR LATER SAT NT.

WITH THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TOWARD MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
RAIN...HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS...RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH
ONLY LOWER/MID 70S EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90...AND 65-70 TO
THE SOUTH. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON THE NORTHERN SHIELD OF STEADIER
RAIN...MAX TEMPS COULD BE ADJUSTED UP OR DOWN YET AGAIN. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT...SHOULD THE STEADIER RAIN PERSIST LONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH...THAT SOME AREAS MAY ONLY REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S ON SATURDAY. FOR SAT NT...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY CLEARING
DEVELOPS...AND IF SAT MAX TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE...IT
MAY BE QUITE CHILLY AS A BRIEF WINDOW OF DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING ENSUES. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
MANY AREAS...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME 40S...ESP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES. AREAS OF FOG
COULD FORM LATE AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SECOND IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH RISING MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS IN
ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL MAY STILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT LATER
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...SLIGHT CHC POPS
HAVE BEEN INDICATED IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY WARMER
WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAINLY CLEAR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE A COASTAL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...

IT WILL BE A STELLAR FLYING AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH FEW-SCT CU
BASES FORMING AROUND 5000 FEET AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. THE
WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5KTS.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA...PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WILL
NEVERTHELESS SPREAD AN AREA OF RAIN TOWARD THE TAFS BETWEEN 14Z-
16Z. THERE IS A CHANCE THIS SHIELD WILL REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF
KGFL...AND FOR NOW...JUST HAVE VCSH IN THE TAF FROM 16Z ON.

FURTHER SOUTH WE EXPECT RAIN TO REACH KALB BY 16Z/KPSF BY 15Z AND
KPOU BY 14Z. AT THIS POINT WE INTRODUCE MVFR CIG CONDITIONS AT
KPSF AT 15Z...BUT HELD VFR AT THE OTHER TAF SITES DESPITE THE
RAIN. MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS MIGHT OCCASIONALLY DEVELOP
BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL JUST OUTSIDE THE TAF WINDOW LATER ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AT ALL THE TAF SITES.

THE WIND ON SATURDAY WILL BE VARIABLE TO NORTH AROUND 5KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCHC EVENING SHRAS.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
RAINFALL AMTS IN THIS REGION SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH...TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS
ARE POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
FURTHER NORTH...RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH.

RIVER LEVELS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL TODAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN MAY HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY SAT AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE RAIN.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...IRL/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 031745
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH JUST A FEW CUMULUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR TEMPS
ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS UPDATE.

EXPECT A MAINLY SUNNY SKY FOR THE REST OF TODAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN MOST VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS
MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SATURDAY FORECAST...

FRI NT...CLEAR AND COOL TO START...THEN INCREASING/THICKENING
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT PERHAPS 45-50 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE APPEARS TO SHEAR OUT AND
LIFT FURTHER NORTHWARD...BRINGING SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF
STEADY RAIN TO AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...ESP FROM AROUND MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NEARLY
ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THIS FEATURE AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH QPF...AS IT IMPLIES A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. THE GFS LATELY HAS BEEN TOO WET WITH QPF...SO HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO A LIGHTER NAM/ECMWF BLEND OF QPF. NEVERTHELESS...THIS
STILL WOULD GIVE A PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN TO AT
LEAST THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AGAIN
MAINLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS
POTENTIAL STEADIER RAINFALL...WITH LIKELY POPS INDICATED FROM
ABOUT I-90 SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL TRENDS TO SEE
IF THIS STEADIER RAIN SHIELD TRENDS EVEN FURTHER NORTH...OR
ACTUALLY BACKS SOUTHWARD YET AGAIN. IT APPEARS THAT THE TIMING OF
THIS SOUTHERN IMPULSE MAY BE JUST QUICK ENOUGH FOR THE STEADIER
RAIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...ESP CLOSER TO
I-90...AND POSSIBLY AROUND SUNSET EVEN TO THE SOUTH. SO...DESPITE
SOME POTENTIALLY WET WEATHER DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THERE
REMAINS A CHANCE THAT RAIN ENDS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER NIGHTFALL. THE
NORTHERN IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH STILL STRONG...SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
LATER SAT NT OR EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL
BE SHUNTED EAST OF THIS SECOND IMPULSE BY THE LEAD ONE...AND THE
CURRENT TIMING WOULD ALSO BRING IT THROUGH AT NIGHT WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY THUNDER OR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FOR LATER SAT NT.

WITH THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TOWARD MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
RAIN...HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS...RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH
ONLY LOWER/MID 70S EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90...AND 65-70 TO
THE SOUTH. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON THE NORTHERN SHIELD OF STEADIER
RAIN...MAX TEMPS COULD BE ADJUSTED UP OR DOWN YET AGAIN. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT...SHOULD THE STEADIER RAIN PERSIST LONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH...THAT SOME AREAS MAY ONLY REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S ON SATURDAY. FOR SAT NT...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY CLEARING
DEVELOPS...AND IF SAT MAX TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE...IT
MAY BE QUITE CHILLY AS A BRIEF WINDOW OF DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING ENSUES. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
MANY AREAS...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME 40S...ESP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES. AREAS OF FOG
COULD FORM LATE AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SECOND IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH RISING MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS IN
ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL MAY STILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT LATER
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...SLIGHT CHC POPS
HAVE BEEN INDICATED IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY WARMER
WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAINLY CLEAR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE A COASTAL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...

IT WILL BE A STELLAR FLYING AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH FEW-SCT CU
BASES FORMING AROUND 5000 FEET AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. THE
WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5KTS.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA...PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WILL
NEVERTHELESS SPREAD AN AREA OF RAIN TOWARD THE TAFS BETWEEN 14Z-
16Z. THERE IS A CHANCE THIS SHIELD WILL REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF
KGFL...AND FOR NOW...JUST HAVE VCSH IN THE TAF FROM 16Z ON.

FURTHER SOUTH WE EXPECT RAIN TO REACH KALB BY 16Z/KPSF BY 15Z AND
KPOU BY 14Z. AT THIS POINT WE INTRODUCE MVFR CIG CONDITIONS AT
KPSF AT 15Z...BUT HELD VFR AT THE OTHER TAF SITES DESPITE THE
RAIN. MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS MIGHT OCCASIONALLY DEVELOP
BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL JUST OUTSIDE THE TAF WINDOW LATER ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AT ALL THE TAF SITES.

THE WIND ON SATURDAY WILL BE VARIABLE TO NORTH AROUND 5KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCHC EVENING SHRAS.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
RAINFALL AMTS IN THIS REGION SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH...TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS
ARE POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
FURTHER NORTH...RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH.

RIVER LEVELS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL TODAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN MAY HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY SAT AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE RAIN.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...IRL/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 031745
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH JUST A FEW CUMULUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR TEMPS
ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS UPDATE.

EXPECT A MAINLY SUNNY SKY FOR THE REST OF TODAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN MOST VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS
MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SATURDAY FORECAST...

FRI NT...CLEAR AND COOL TO START...THEN INCREASING/THICKENING
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT PERHAPS 45-50 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE APPEARS TO SHEAR OUT AND
LIFT FURTHER NORTHWARD...BRINGING SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF
STEADY RAIN TO AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...ESP FROM AROUND MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NEARLY
ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THIS FEATURE AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH QPF...AS IT IMPLIES A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. THE GFS LATELY HAS BEEN TOO WET WITH QPF...SO HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO A LIGHTER NAM/ECMWF BLEND OF QPF. NEVERTHELESS...THIS
STILL WOULD GIVE A PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN TO AT
LEAST THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AGAIN
MAINLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS
POTENTIAL STEADIER RAINFALL...WITH LIKELY POPS INDICATED FROM
ABOUT I-90 SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL TRENDS TO SEE
IF THIS STEADIER RAIN SHIELD TRENDS EVEN FURTHER NORTH...OR
ACTUALLY BACKS SOUTHWARD YET AGAIN. IT APPEARS THAT THE TIMING OF
THIS SOUTHERN IMPULSE MAY BE JUST QUICK ENOUGH FOR THE STEADIER
RAIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...ESP CLOSER TO
I-90...AND POSSIBLY AROUND SUNSET EVEN TO THE SOUTH. SO...DESPITE
SOME POTENTIALLY WET WEATHER DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THERE
REMAINS A CHANCE THAT RAIN ENDS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER NIGHTFALL. THE
NORTHERN IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH STILL STRONG...SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
LATER SAT NT OR EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL
BE SHUNTED EAST OF THIS SECOND IMPULSE BY THE LEAD ONE...AND THE
CURRENT TIMING WOULD ALSO BRING IT THROUGH AT NIGHT WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY THUNDER OR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FOR LATER SAT NT.

WITH THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TOWARD MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
RAIN...HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS...RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH
ONLY LOWER/MID 70S EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90...AND 65-70 TO
THE SOUTH. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON THE NORTHERN SHIELD OF STEADIER
RAIN...MAX TEMPS COULD BE ADJUSTED UP OR DOWN YET AGAIN. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT...SHOULD THE STEADIER RAIN PERSIST LONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH...THAT SOME AREAS MAY ONLY REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S ON SATURDAY. FOR SAT NT...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY CLEARING
DEVELOPS...AND IF SAT MAX TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE...IT
MAY BE QUITE CHILLY AS A BRIEF WINDOW OF DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING ENSUES. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
MANY AREAS...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME 40S...ESP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES. AREAS OF FOG
COULD FORM LATE AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SECOND IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH RISING MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS IN
ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL MAY STILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT LATER
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...SLIGHT CHC POPS
HAVE BEEN INDICATED IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY WARMER
WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAINLY CLEAR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE A COASTAL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...

IT WILL BE A STELLAR FLYING AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH FEW-SCT CU
BASES FORMING AROUND 5000 FEET AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. THE
WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5KTS.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA...PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WILL
NEVERTHELESS SPREAD AN AREA OF RAIN TOWARD THE TAFS BETWEEN 14Z-
16Z. THERE IS A CHANCE THIS SHIELD WILL REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF
KGFL...AND FOR NOW...JUST HAVE VCSH IN THE TAF FROM 16Z ON.

FURTHER SOUTH WE EXPECT RAIN TO REACH KALB BY 16Z/KPSF BY 15Z AND
KPOU BY 14Z. AT THIS POINT WE INTRODUCE MVFR CIG CONDITIONS AT
KPSF AT 15Z...BUT HELD VFR AT THE OTHER TAF SITES DESPITE THE
RAIN. MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS MIGHT OCCASIONALLY DEVELOP
BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL JUST OUTSIDE THE TAF WINDOW LATER ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AT ALL THE TAF SITES.

THE WIND ON SATURDAY WILL BE VARIABLE TO NORTH AROUND 5KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCHC EVENING SHRAS.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
RAINFALL AMTS IN THIS REGION SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH...TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS
ARE POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
FURTHER NORTH...RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH.

RIVER LEVELS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL TODAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN MAY HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY SAT AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE RAIN.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...IRL/KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 031723
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
123 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1020 AM EDT...SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH JUST A FEW WISPS OF
CIRRUS AND FEW CU. OTHERWISE A NEARLY PERFECT DAY AS TEMPERATURES
WARM THROUGH THE 60S...AND WILL BE INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST BY
PLACES BY NOON.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES TO THE HOURLY GRIDS AND
RAISED A FEW PLACES A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

EXPECT A MAINLY SUNNY SKY FOR THE REST OF TODAY...WITH TEMPS
ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY...REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 IN MOST VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS MOST HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SATURDAY FORECAST...

FRI NT...CLEAR AND COOL TO START...THEN INCREASING/THICKENING
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT PERHAPS 45-50 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE APPEARS TO SHEAR OUT AND
LIFT FURTHER NORTHWARD...BRINGING SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF
STEADY RAIN TO AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...ESP FROM AROUND MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NEARLY
ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THIS FEATURE AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH QPF...AS IT IMPLIES A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. THE GFS LATELY HAS BEEN TOO WET WITH QPF...SO HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO A LIGHTER NAM/ECMWF BLEND OF QPF. NEVERTHELESS...THIS
STILL WOULD GIVE A PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN TO AT
LEAST THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AGAIN
MAINLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS
POTENTIAL STEADIER RAINFALL...WITH LIKELY POPS INDICATED FROM
ABOUT I-90 SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL TRENDS TO SEE
IF THIS STEADIER RAIN SHIELD TRENDS EVEN FURTHER NORTH...OR
ACTUALLY BACKS SOUTHWARD YET AGAIN. IT APPEARS THAT THE TIMING OF
THIS SOUTHERN IMPULSE MAY BE JUST QUICK ENOUGH FOR THE STEADIER
RAIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...ESP CLOSER TO
I-90...AND POSSIBLY AROUND SUNSET EVEN TO THE SOUTH. SO...DESPITE
SOME POTENTIALLY WET WEATHER DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THERE
REMAINS A CHANCE THAT RAIN ENDS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER NIGHTFALL. THE
NORTHERN IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH STILL STRONG...SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
LATER SAT NT OR EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL
BE SHUNTED EAST OF THIS SECOND IMPULSE BY THE LEAD ONE...AND THE
CURRENT TIMING WOULD ALSO BRING IT THROUGH AT NIGHT WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY THUNDER OR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FOR LATER SAT NT.

WITH THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TOWARD MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
RAIN...HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS...RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH
ONLY LOWER/MID 70S EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90...AND 65-70 TO
THE SOUTH. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON THE NORTHERN SHIELD OF STEADIER
RAIN...MAX TEMPS COULD BE ADJUSTED UP OR DOWN YET AGAIN. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT...SHOULD THE STEADIER RAIN PERSIST LONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH...THAT SOME AREAS MAY ONLY REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S ON SATURDAY. FOR SAT NT...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY CLEARING
DEVELOPS...AND IF SAT MAX TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE...IT
MAY BE QUITE CHILLY AS A BRIEF WINDOW OF DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING ENSUES. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
MANY AREAS...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME 40S...ESP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES. AREAS OF FOG
COULD FORM LATE AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SECOND IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH RISING MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS IN
ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL MAY STILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT LATER
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...SLIGHT CHC POPS
HAVE BEEN INDICATED IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY WARMER
WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAINLY CLEAR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE A COASTAL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...

IT WILL BE A STELLAR FLYING AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH FEW-SCT CU
BASES FORMING AROUND 5000 FEET AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. THE
WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5KTS.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA...PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WILL
NEVERTHELESS SPREAD AN AREA OF RAIN TOWARD THE TAFS BETWEEN 14Z-
16Z. THERE IS A CHANCE THIS SHIELD WILL REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF
KGFL...AND FOR NOW...JUST HAVE VCSH IN THE TAF FROM 16Z ON.

FURTHER SOUTH WE EXPECT RAIN TO REACH KALB BY 16Z/KPSF BY 15Z AND
KPOU BY 14Z. AT THIS POINT WE INTRODUCE MVFR CIG CONDITIONS AT
KPSF AT 15Z...BUT HELD VFR AT THE OTHER TAF SITES DESPITE THE
RAIN. MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS MIGHT OCCASIONALLY DEVELOP
BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL JUST OUTSIDE THE TAF WINDOW LATER ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AT ALL THE TAF SITES.

THE WIND ON SATURDAY WILL BE VARIABLE TO NORTH AROUND 5KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCHC EVENING SHRAS.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
RAINFALL AMTS IN THIS REGION SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH...TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS
ARE POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
FURTHER NORTH...RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH.

RIVER LEVELS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL TODAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN MAY HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY SAT AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE RAIN.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...IRL/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 031427
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1027 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1020 AM EDT...SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH JUST A FEW WISPS OF
CIRRUS AND FEW CU. OTHERWISE A NEARLY PERFECT DAY AS TEMPERATURES
WARM THROUGH THE 60S...AND WILL BE INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST BY
PLACES BY NOON.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES TO THE HOURLY GRIDS AND
RAISED A FEW PLACES A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

EXPECT A MAINLY SUNNY SKY FOR THE REST OF TODAY...WITH TEMPS
ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY...REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 IN MOST VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS MOST HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SATURDAY FORECAST...

FRI NT...CLEAR AND COOL TO START...THEN INCREASING/THICKENING
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT PERHAPS 45-50 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE APPEARS TO SHEAR OUT AND
LIFT FURTHER NORTHWARD...BRINGING SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF
STEADY RAIN TO AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...ESP FROM AROUND MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NEARLY
ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THIS FEATURE AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH QPF...AS IT IMPLIES A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. THE GFS LATELY HAS BEEN TOO WET WITH QPF...SO HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO A LIGHTER NAM/ECMWF BLEND OF QPF. NEVERTHELESS...THIS
STILL WOULD GIVE A PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN TO AT
LEAST THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AGAIN
MAINLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS
POTENTIAL STEADIER RAINFALL...WITH LIKELY POPS INDICATED FROM
ABOUT I-90 SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL TRENDS TO SEE
IF THIS STEADIER RAIN SHIELD TRENDS EVEN FURTHER NORTH...OR
ACTUALLY BACKS SOUTHWARD YET AGAIN. IT APPEARS THAT THE TIMING OF
THIS SOUTHERN IMPULSE MAY BE JUST QUICK ENOUGH FOR THE STEADIER
RAIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...ESP CLOSER TO
I-90...AND POSSIBLY AROUND SUNSET EVEN TO THE SOUTH. SO...DESPITE
SOME POTENTIALLY WET WEATHER DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THERE
REMAINS A CHANCE THAT RAIN ENDS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER NIGHTFALL. THE
NORTHERN IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH STILL STRONG...SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
LATER SAT NT OR EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL
BE SHUNTED EAST OF THIS SECOND IMPULSE BY THE LEAD ONE...AND THE
CURRENT TIMING WOULD ALSO BRING IT THROUGH AT NIGHT WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY THUNDER OR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FOR LATER SAT NT.

WITH THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TOWARD MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
RAIN...HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS...RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH
ONLY LOWER/MID 70S EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90...AND 65-70 TO
THE SOUTH. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON THE NORTHERN SHIELD OF STEADIER
RAIN...MAX TEMPS COULD BE ADJUSTED UP OR DOWN YET AGAIN. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT...SHOULD THE STEADIER RAIN PERSIST LONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH...THAT SOME AREAS MAY ONLY REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S ON SATURDAY. FOR SAT NT...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY CLEARING
DEVELOPS...AND IF SAT MAX TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE...IT
MAY BE QUITE CHILLY AS A BRIEF WINDOW OF DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING ENSUES. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
MANY AREAS...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME 40S...ESP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES. AREAS OF FOG
COULD FORM LATE AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SECOND IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH RISING MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS IN
ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL MAY STILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT LATER
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...SLIGHT CHC POPS
HAVE BEEN INDICATED IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY WARMER
WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAINLY CLEAR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE A COASTAL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...


IT WILL BE A STELLAR FLYING DAY WITH FEW-SCT CU BASES FORMING
AROUND 5000 FEET AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. THE WIND WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5KTS.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FEET.

UNFORTUNATELY...IT NOW LOOKS AS IF WILL RAIN ON PART OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90. IT MIGHT NOT BE A
WASH OUT BUT AT THE VERY LEAST...PLAN ON AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS
AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
RAINFALL AMTS IN THIS REGION SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH...TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS
ARE POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
FURTHER NORTH...RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH.

RIVER LEVELS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL TODAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN MAY HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY SAT AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE RAIN.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...HWJIV/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...IRL/KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 031427
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1027 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1020 AM EDT...SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH JUST A FEW WISPS OF
CIRRUS AND FEW CU. OTHERWISE A NEARLY PERFECT DAY AS TEMPERATURES
WARM THROUGH THE 60S...AND WILL BE INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST BY
PLACES BY NOON.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES TO THE HOURLY GRIDS AND
RAISED A FEW PLACES A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

EXPECT A MAINLY SUNNY SKY FOR THE REST OF TODAY...WITH TEMPS
ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY...REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 IN MOST VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS MOST HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SATURDAY FORECAST...

FRI NT...CLEAR AND COOL TO START...THEN INCREASING/THICKENING
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT PERHAPS 45-50 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE APPEARS TO SHEAR OUT AND
LIFT FURTHER NORTHWARD...BRINGING SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF
STEADY RAIN TO AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...ESP FROM AROUND MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NEARLY
ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THIS FEATURE AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH QPF...AS IT IMPLIES A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. THE GFS LATELY HAS BEEN TOO WET WITH QPF...SO HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO A LIGHTER NAM/ECMWF BLEND OF QPF. NEVERTHELESS...THIS
STILL WOULD GIVE A PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN TO AT
LEAST THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AGAIN
MAINLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS
POTENTIAL STEADIER RAINFALL...WITH LIKELY POPS INDICATED FROM
ABOUT I-90 SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL TRENDS TO SEE
IF THIS STEADIER RAIN SHIELD TRENDS EVEN FURTHER NORTH...OR
ACTUALLY BACKS SOUTHWARD YET AGAIN. IT APPEARS THAT THE TIMING OF
THIS SOUTHERN IMPULSE MAY BE JUST QUICK ENOUGH FOR THE STEADIER
RAIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...ESP CLOSER TO
I-90...AND POSSIBLY AROUND SUNSET EVEN TO THE SOUTH. SO...DESPITE
SOME POTENTIALLY WET WEATHER DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THERE
REMAINS A CHANCE THAT RAIN ENDS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER NIGHTFALL. THE
NORTHERN IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH STILL STRONG...SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
LATER SAT NT OR EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL
BE SHUNTED EAST OF THIS SECOND IMPULSE BY THE LEAD ONE...AND THE
CURRENT TIMING WOULD ALSO BRING IT THROUGH AT NIGHT WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY THUNDER OR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FOR LATER SAT NT.

WITH THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TOWARD MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
RAIN...HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS...RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH
ONLY LOWER/MID 70S EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90...AND 65-70 TO
THE SOUTH. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON THE NORTHERN SHIELD OF STEADIER
RAIN...MAX TEMPS COULD BE ADJUSTED UP OR DOWN YET AGAIN. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT...SHOULD THE STEADIER RAIN PERSIST LONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH...THAT SOME AREAS MAY ONLY REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S ON SATURDAY. FOR SAT NT...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY CLEARING
DEVELOPS...AND IF SAT MAX TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE...IT
MAY BE QUITE CHILLY AS A BRIEF WINDOW OF DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING ENSUES. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
MANY AREAS...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME 40S...ESP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES. AREAS OF FOG
COULD FORM LATE AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SECOND IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH RISING MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS IN
ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL MAY STILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT LATER
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...SLIGHT CHC POPS
HAVE BEEN INDICATED IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY WARMER
WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAINLY CLEAR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE A COASTAL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...


IT WILL BE A STELLAR FLYING DAY WITH FEW-SCT CU BASES FORMING
AROUND 5000 FEET AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. THE WIND WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5KTS.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FEET.

UNFORTUNATELY...IT NOW LOOKS AS IF WILL RAIN ON PART OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90. IT MIGHT NOT BE A
WASH OUT BUT AT THE VERY LEAST...PLAN ON AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS
AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
RAINFALL AMTS IN THIS REGION SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH...TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS
ARE POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
FURTHER NORTH...RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH.

RIVER LEVELS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL TODAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN MAY HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY SAT AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE RAIN.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...HWJIV/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...IRL/KL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 031423
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1023 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. A FEW CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1023 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR
TODAY. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S STILL LOOK RIGHT ON TRACK AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE
BRIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. ENJOY YOUR DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES WITH
REGARDS TO THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WHICH FEATURES
MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. LATEST TRENDS IN
THE MODELS HAS BEEN FOR SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO TRACK FURTHER
NORTH ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO HANDLE NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE
PLENTY OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM VORT IS
LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL STREAK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...BEFORE GETTING SHEARED OUT TO OUR SOUTH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROF.
HOWEVER...LATEST TRENDS SHOW DEEPER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED 850
TO 700MB UVVS. GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
CWA...THINKING INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FALL APART
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FA ON SATURDAY AFTN. HAVE NOTED A STRONG RRQ
OF 25H JET LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL HELP PULL
PRECIP NORTH. GIVEN DYNAMICS AND LATEST TRENDS I WILL MENTION LOW
LIKELY POPS SOUTHERN RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AND TAPER OFF TO CHC
CENTRAL AND SCHC NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON SATURDAY. QPF
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA.
ANOTHER CHANGE WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...EXPECTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
IMPACTS OUR NORTHERN CWA. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
LIMITED...BUT 5H VORT IS PRETTY POTENT. WILL MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. QPF WILL BE LIGHT GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR FA BY 18Z
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C BY 00Z MONDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID
70S MTNS/NEK TO LOWER 80S CPV.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUESTIONABLE AND FLUID FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A HINT OF SUMMER THEN PERHAPS A RETURN TO A JUNE
PATTERN.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY ADMIST A SPLIT FLOW AROSS NE
CONUS THEN THE APPROACH OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ALONG WITH
INTERACTION FROM A UPPER TROUGH AS PART OF THE SPLIT FLOW WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS/TSRA THREAT TUE AFTN THROUGH WED. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS IT MAY TRY TO HANG UP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS
INDICATED YESTERDAY AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THEREFORE...CAN`T
RULE OUT THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH END OF THE WEEK.

SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERRATURES AND DRY EARLY THEN A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS. NO HEAT WAVE AS ALONG AS WE STAY DOMINATED BY
NORTHERN CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH IS BEING SUGGESTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KSLK/KMPV DUE TO FOG AFT 06Z SAT. WINDS WILL BE WSW AT 5-10 KNOTS
TODAY AND LGT/VRBL TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

VFR WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH
LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEING
LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW



000
FXUS61 KBTV 031423
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1023 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. A FEW CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1023 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR
TODAY. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S STILL LOOK RIGHT ON TRACK AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE
BRIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. ENJOY YOUR DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES WITH
REGARDS TO THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WHICH FEATURES
MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. LATEST TRENDS IN
THE MODELS HAS BEEN FOR SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO TRACK FURTHER
NORTH ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO HANDLE NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE
PLENTY OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM VORT IS
LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL STREAK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...BEFORE GETTING SHEARED OUT TO OUR SOUTH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROF.
HOWEVER...LATEST TRENDS SHOW DEEPER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED 850
TO 700MB UVVS. GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
CWA...THINKING INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FALL APART
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FA ON SATURDAY AFTN. HAVE NOTED A STRONG RRQ
OF 25H JET LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL HELP PULL
PRECIP NORTH. GIVEN DYNAMICS AND LATEST TRENDS I WILL MENTION LOW
LIKELY POPS SOUTHERN RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AND TAPER OFF TO CHC
CENTRAL AND SCHC NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON SATURDAY. QPF
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA.
ANOTHER CHANGE WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...EXPECTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
IMPACTS OUR NORTHERN CWA. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
LIMITED...BUT 5H VORT IS PRETTY POTENT. WILL MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. QPF WILL BE LIGHT GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR FA BY 18Z
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C BY 00Z MONDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID
70S MTNS/NEK TO LOWER 80S CPV.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUESTIONABLE AND FLUID FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A HINT OF SUMMER THEN PERHAPS A RETURN TO A JUNE
PATTERN.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY ADMIST A SPLIT FLOW AROSS NE
CONUS THEN THE APPROACH OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ALONG WITH
INTERACTION FROM A UPPER TROUGH AS PART OF THE SPLIT FLOW WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS/TSRA THREAT TUE AFTN THROUGH WED. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS IT MAY TRY TO HANG UP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS
INDICATED YESTERDAY AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THEREFORE...CAN`T
RULE OUT THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH END OF THE WEEK.

SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERRATURES AND DRY EARLY THEN A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS. NO HEAT WAVE AS ALONG AS WE STAY DOMINATED BY
NORTHERN CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH IS BEING SUGGESTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KSLK/KMPV DUE TO FOG AFT 06Z SAT. WINDS WILL BE WSW AT 5-10 KNOTS
TODAY AND LGT/VRBL TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

VFR WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH
LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEING
LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW




000
FXUS61 KBTV 031423
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1023 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. A FEW CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1023 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR
TODAY. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S STILL LOOK RIGHT ON TRACK AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE
BRIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. ENJOY YOUR DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES WITH
REGARDS TO THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WHICH FEATURES
MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. LATEST TRENDS IN
THE MODELS HAS BEEN FOR SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO TRACK FURTHER
NORTH ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO HANDLE NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE
PLENTY OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM VORT IS
LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL STREAK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...BEFORE GETTING SHEARED OUT TO OUR SOUTH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROF.
HOWEVER...LATEST TRENDS SHOW DEEPER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED 850
TO 700MB UVVS. GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
CWA...THINKING INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FALL APART
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FA ON SATURDAY AFTN. HAVE NOTED A STRONG RRQ
OF 25H JET LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL HELP PULL
PRECIP NORTH. GIVEN DYNAMICS AND LATEST TRENDS I WILL MENTION LOW
LIKELY POPS SOUTHERN RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AND TAPER OFF TO CHC
CENTRAL AND SCHC NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON SATURDAY. QPF
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA.
ANOTHER CHANGE WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...EXPECTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
IMPACTS OUR NORTHERN CWA. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
LIMITED...BUT 5H VORT IS PRETTY POTENT. WILL MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. QPF WILL BE LIGHT GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR FA BY 18Z
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C BY 00Z MONDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID
70S MTNS/NEK TO LOWER 80S CPV.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUESTIONABLE AND FLUID FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A HINT OF SUMMER THEN PERHAPS A RETURN TO A JUNE
PATTERN.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY ADMIST A SPLIT FLOW AROSS NE
CONUS THEN THE APPROACH OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ALONG WITH
INTERACTION FROM A UPPER TROUGH AS PART OF THE SPLIT FLOW WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS/TSRA THREAT TUE AFTN THROUGH WED. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS IT MAY TRY TO HANG UP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS
INDICATED YESTERDAY AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THEREFORE...CAN`T
RULE OUT THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH END OF THE WEEK.

SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERRATURES AND DRY EARLY THEN A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS. NO HEAT WAVE AS ALONG AS WE STAY DOMINATED BY
NORTHERN CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH IS BEING SUGGESTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KSLK/KMPV DUE TO FOG AFT 06Z SAT. WINDS WILL BE WSW AT 5-10 KNOTS
TODAY AND LGT/VRBL TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

VFR WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH
LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEING
LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW




000
FXUS61 KBTV 031423
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1023 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. A FEW CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1023 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR
TODAY. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S STILL LOOK RIGHT ON TRACK AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE
BRIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. ENJOY YOUR DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES WITH
REGARDS TO THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WHICH FEATURES
MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHCS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. LATEST TRENDS IN
THE MODELS HAS BEEN FOR SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO TRACK FURTHER
NORTH ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO HANDLE NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE
PLENTY OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM VORT IS
LOCATED OVER THE MS VALLEY. THIS ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL STREAK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...BEFORE GETTING SHEARED OUT TO OUR SOUTH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROF.
HOWEVER...LATEST TRENDS SHOW DEEPER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE
IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA...ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED 850
TO 700MB UVVS. GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
CWA...THINKING INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE/LIFT WILL FALL APART
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FA ON SATURDAY AFTN. HAVE NOTED A STRONG RRQ
OF 25H JET LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL HELP PULL
PRECIP NORTH. GIVEN DYNAMICS AND LATEST TRENDS I WILL MENTION LOW
LIKELY POPS SOUTHERN RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AND TAPER OFF TO CHC
CENTRAL AND SCHC NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON SATURDAY. QPF
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY <0.10" ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA.
ANOTHER CHANGE WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...EXPECTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
IMPACTS OUR NORTHERN CWA. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
LIMITED...BUT 5H VORT IS PRETTY POTENT. WILL MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. QPF WILL BE LIGHT GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR FA BY 18Z
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C BY 00Z MONDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID
70S MTNS/NEK TO LOWER 80S CPV.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY...A VERY QUESTIONABLE AND FLUID FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A HINT OF SUMMER THEN PERHAPS A RETURN TO A JUNE
PATTERN.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY ADMIST A SPLIT FLOW AROSS NE
CONUS THEN THE APPROACH OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ALONG WITH
INTERACTION FROM A UPPER TROUGH AS PART OF THE SPLIT FLOW WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS/TSRA THREAT TUE AFTN THROUGH WED. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS IT MAY TRY TO HANG UP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS
INDICATED YESTERDAY AND WPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THEREFORE...CAN`T
RULE OUT THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH END OF THE WEEK.

SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERRATURES AND DRY EARLY THEN A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS. NO HEAT WAVE AS ALONG AS WE STAY DOMINATED BY
NORTHERN CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH IS BEING SUGGESTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD
WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KSLK/KMPV DUE TO FOG AFT 06Z SAT. WINDS WILL BE WSW AT 5-10 KNOTS
TODAY AND LGT/VRBL TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

VFR WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH
LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEING
LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TE