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000
FXUS61 KBTV 012005
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
405 PM EDT Fri Jul 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Thunderstorms, some strong, will come to an end by late evening as
a cold front moves across the area. The holiday weekend will
start out on the cool and breezy side. A few light showers are
possible across northern sections as well. Sunday and Monday
however look to be generally sunny with warming temperatures.
Highs for July fourth will be in the 80s. Most of next week looks
warm and dry, with the next chance for any thunderstorms not until
the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Friday...no huge changes at this point. will
maintain threat for strong/possibly severe t-storms for the entire
region, however dry air (dewpoints in the low to mid 50s) are
killing the convection as it`s been moving into northern NY the
last couple of hours. may end up being that from roughly
montpelier southward will have the highest potential for any
strong/severe t-storms the next few hours. will continue to
monitor, and refresh the forecast as necessary.

previous diatribe from earlier this afternoon is below...

going forecast for the remainder of this afternoon and evening
still looks to be on track. thunderstorms are rapidly developing
across central new york, which is not surprisingly where the best
instability is at this point. tried to show a little better detail
in the gridded forecast with regard to timing of the thunderstorms
as they move across the area. thinking about 4-430pm for them to
move into the champlain valley. dynamics are strong, with 0-6km
shear already 30-40kts and still increasing. big downside is the
low boundary layer moisture. dewpoints are still in the 50s across
the region, but much jucier air isn`t too far to the south. noted
dewpoints well into the 60s to lower 70s down in far southern new
england. could see some of that low level moisture make it`s way
into the champlain valley on the breezy southerly flow just as the
storms get into vermont. this could mean a bit of strengthening of
the storms at the time.

at this point, it appears that strong wind gusts will be the
primary threat for any severe weather in this region. wind fields
are not as supportive of the tornado potential as they are farther
to our south. refer to the SPC outlook probabilities for more
details. we will be coordinating with SPC a bit later this
afternoon for the possibility of a severe t-storm watch in this
area.

will continue to also monitor the hydro aspect, however it looks
like the storm motion will be fast enough to preclude any
excessive rainfall in any location.

the hrrr, btv4 and btv6 models seem to be doing reasonably well,
so incorporated a blend of their output to help with the t-storm
timing and location.

main batch of storms will be out of northern new york by 00z, and
by 04z for vermont. However there could be a smaller second round
of convection more closely associated with the surface front and
upper trough. that would be the convection that is happening out
across southern ontario. don`t think that stuff would be strong,
but have maintained some chance level pops for parts of northern
new york for the after midnight hours.

had to up temperatures a couple of degrees as we were already at
previously forecasted highs and the thicker clouds hadn`t yet come
in.

with the passage of the cold front late tonight/daybreak saturday,
winds will turn west and northwest. looks like very good mixing
during the day, so anticipate a fairly breezy day with gusts
perhaps up to 30 mph at times. upper trough will be passing by
well to the north, but close enough that we may have a few showers
develop across the higher terrain of the `dacks and northern
Vermont. temperatures will be noticably cooler, lots of 60s to
lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 PM EDT Friday...looking pretty quiet weatherwise for
Sunday - nearly perfect for most outdoor holiday celebration
activities. temperatures aloft warm some, so highs will be closer
to normal (70s to a few lower 80s). still cyclonic flow aloft and
good boundary layer mixing, so can`t rule out an isolated shower
for the higher terrain. will be a little breezy once again during
the afternoon. quiets down for sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Friday...

Given the ongoing severe weather threat and the focus on that, I
went straight with a model blend for the forecast and did not dive
too deep into the variations on the guidance suite.

However, the quick perusal did indicate to me that there is good
model agreement with an overall warm and dry week coming up. Upper
level ridging becomes established. That means plenty of sunshine.
850mb temperatures warm a little each day. 12-14C on Monday the
4th relates to roughly upper 70s to lower 80s for highs and by
Thursday we are looking at 850mb temperatures 16-18C which
suggests 80s to lower 90s. Guidance suggests a little breakdown of
the ridge for Friday. Could be an active convective day with fast
westerly flow over us, yet still a good amount of warmth and a
humid airmass. 12z GFS depicts an EML (elevated mixed layer) also
moving into the area Friday. That can be a signal for significant
convection.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Through 18Z Saturday...showers and t-storms will be moving across
the region this afternoon and evening. tried to time the period of
thunderstorm activity based on most current radar trends, but will
likely have to issue a few amendments to fine tune things. in
general, looking at 19-21z for MSS, SLK, PBG, 1930-22z for BTV,
RUT and 20z-23z for MPV. Only indicated MVFR conditions at this
point, but realistically there will be brief periods of IFR with
any t-storm that directly impacts the TAF location. expect lighter
showers to continue for a couple of hours after the main event.
Bulk of showers/t-storms will be gone by 03z, however isolated
showers are possible later tonight across northern NY. may see
some MVFR ceilings develop after midnight in areas.

For Saturday, generally VFR, though gusty surface winds will
develop, occasionally gusting up around 25kts. Expect a few
showers during the afternoon up closer to the Canadian border.

Outlook 18Z Saturday through Wednesday...

18Z Saturday through 12z Sunday...Generally VFR, outside any
afternoon showers. Gusty surface winds will diminish after sunset.

12Z Sunday through Wednesday...VFR under high pressure during the
day. Possible overnight IFR to VLIFR fog at SLK and MPV each
evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 429 AM Friday...We continue to monitor potential for
localized heavy rainfall in strong to severe thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Strong QG forcing should help produce a
widespread rain for the area. Precipitable water values increase
during the afternoon and evening to around 1.3 to 1.5", moderately
high but again not excessive. The progressive nature of the mid-
level trough and storm motions should keep cells/lines moving, but
NEly Corfidi vectors of 10-15 kts supports potential for some
backbuilding. Will need to monitor convective evolution today for
this potential. Flash flood guidance still is rather high (3hr
values mainly 2-3"), but areas that will need to monitor for
heavy rainfall capable of small areas of flash flooding are in
Franklin and western Clinton Counties in NY and Orleans, Caledonia
and Essex Counties in VT given the flash flooding that occurred in
these areas early in the week. Urbanized areas and mountainous
terrain are common trouble spots as well. Main-stem river flooding
is not anticipated.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 355 PM Friday...A Lake Thunderstorm Advisory is in effect
through this evening. Thunderstorms are expected to move across
the lake through about 9pm. Some of them, especially in the
southern half of the lake, could be rather strong and produce wind
gusts in excess of 35 knots.

Saturday and Sunday will feature gusty northwest winds, likely in
the 15 to 20 knot range. Some higher gusts of 25 knots or higher
are possible each afternoon. This will result in choppy 1 to 2
foot conditions.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Nash
NEAR TERM...Nash
SHORT TERM...Nash
LONG TERM...Nash
AVIATION...Nash
HYDROLOGY...Banacos/Loconto
MARINE...Nash



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000
FXUS61 KALY 011955
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
355 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will bring the chance for some showers and
thunderstorms to the region this afternoon into the evening. Some
of the thunderstorms may contain damaging winds or large hail.
Behind the front, it will be dry and less humid over the holiday
weekend with continued seasonable temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Tornado Watch 313 is in effect for all of eastern New York and
adjacent western New England until 10 PM this evening.

A potent upper level shortwave is currently located over the
eastern Great Lakes, with a surface cold front in place over
western New York and western Pennsylvania headed eastward. At the
current time, skies are mostly cloudy over the region.

Surface based CAPEs of 500 to 2000 j/kg are located from north to
south across the region with surface dewpoints rising into the
60s to around 70, especially for southern parts of the Hudson
Valley. 0-6 km bulk shear values rise to around 40 kts, mid level
lapse rates will be around 6 deg C/km. Although these numbers
aren`t overwhelming, they should be enough for some storms to
be strong to severe, with damaging winds, large hail and a
possibility of tornadoes.

The shower and thunderstorm activity will wind down this evening
with cool conditions overnight in the wake of the cold front as
the temperatures drop into the upper 40s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Dry and seasonable conditions are expected during the short term
period as a large ridge of high pressure builds into and settles
over the region. Highs on Saturday will range from the mid 60s to
upper 70s with lows Saturday night in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 60s to lower 80s with lows
Sunday night in the 50s. Highs on Monday will be in the mid 70s to
mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dry and mild conditions are in store for 4th of July fireworks
displays.  Seasonably hot conditions are in store for this period.
High temperatures will range from the mid 70s to mid 80s Tuesday...
with highs from the upper 70s to around 90 degrees Wednesday through
Friday.  Tuesday night lows will range from the upper 50s to mid
60s...with lows in the 60s Wednesday and Thursday nights.

Low pressure passing off to the north on Friday will increase
precip chances.  Until then...conditions will remain dry.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to eastern NY
and western New England this afternoon into this evening. The
front will move move east of the region overnight. High Pressure
will be gradually building in from the western Great Lakes Region
and Midwest tomorrow.

VFR conditions will lower MVFR/IFR conditions in increasing
showers and thunderstorms btwn 20Z-00Z/SAT ahead of the front.
Some gusty winds are possible with the thunderstorms...and
VRB15G35KT wind groups were used in TEMPOs for KPSF/KPOU/KALB
with any thunderstorms. The thunderstorms should diminish prior to
02Z south and east of KALB.

Appreciable low-level moisture in the boundary layer coupled with
clearing skies will allow for some some MVFR mist/stratus to form.
It could be IFR...but our confidence is not high enough to place
in the TAFS this far out. Increasing west winds in the wake of the
front coupled with subsidence should allow the CIGS/VSBYS to
return to VFR levels btwn 12Z-14Z/SAT.

The winds will be southeast to south at 8-15 kts with gusts in
the 20-25 kt range this afternoon...and then shift to the
southwest to west at 5-10 kts this evening...before becoming west
at 5-10 kts between 06Z-12Z. The winds will strengthen from the
west at 10-15 kts in the late morning with gusts close to 25 kts.

Outlook...

Saturday through Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A frontal boundary will bring the chance for some showers and
thunderstorms to the region this afternoon into the evening. Some
of the thunderstorms may contain damaging winds or large hail.
Behind the front, it will be dry and less humid over the holiday
weekend with continued seasonable temperatures.

Relative humidity values will recover to 85 to 100 percent
tonight, drop to 35 to 50 percent on Saturday, recover to 70 to
100 percent Saturday night, and drop to 30 to 45 percent on
Sunday.

Winds will be southwest around 10 mph tonight, west at 10 to 15
mph with gusts up to 25 mph on Saturday, west at 10 to 15 mph
diminishing to less than 5 mph after midnight Saturday night, and
west at 10 to 15 mph on Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Dry weather has been a common theme this year, with many reporting
sites showing rainfall deficits of 3 to 7 inches below normal
levels. According to the USGS, streamflow levels are running below
normal over many parts of the region. The US Drought Monitor has
much of the region in either the D0 (Abnormally Dry) or D1
(Moderate Drought) categories.

An approaching cold front will bring widespread showers and
thunderstorms to the region this afternoon into this evening.
Localized rainfall totals of over an inch are possible, although
widespread rainfall amounts probably won`t be enough to make a big
dent in the rainfall deficits over the entire region. Despite the
dry conditions, there is always the potential for localized minor
flooding of urban or poor drainage areas if a heavy thunderstorm
rainfall occurs over a vulnerable area. However, widespread
flooding is not expected and river and stream levels will
generally only show minor rises from today`s rainfall or just hold
steady into the weekend. Dry weather will then return to the
region later tonight and be in place through at least early to mid next
week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KALY 011955
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
355 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will bring the chance for some showers and
thunderstorms to the region this afternoon into the evening. Some
of the thunderstorms may contain damaging winds or large hail.
Behind the front, it will be dry and less humid over the holiday
weekend with continued seasonable temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Tornado Watch 313 is in effect for all of eastern New York and
adjacent western New England until 10 PM this evening.

A potent upper level shortwave is currently located over the
eastern Great Lakes, with a surface cold front in place over
western New York and western Pennsylvania headed eastward. At the
current time, skies are mostly cloudy over the region.

Surface based CAPEs of 500 to 2000 j/kg are located from north to
south across the region with surface dewpoints rising into the
60s to around 70, especially for southern parts of the Hudson
Valley. 0-6 km bulk shear values rise to around 40 kts, mid level
lapse rates will be around 6 deg C/km. Although these numbers
aren`t overwhelming, they should be enough for some storms to
be strong to severe, with damaging winds, large hail and a
possibility of tornadoes.

The shower and thunderstorm activity will wind down this evening
with cool conditions overnight in the wake of the cold front as
the temperatures drop into the upper 40s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Dry and seasonable conditions are expected during the short term
period as a large ridge of high pressure builds into and settles
over the region. Highs on Saturday will range from the mid 60s to
upper 70s with lows Saturday night in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 60s to lower 80s with lows
Sunday night in the 50s. Highs on Monday will be in the mid 70s to
mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dry and mild conditions are in store for 4th of July fireworks
displays.  Seasonably hot conditions are in store for this period.
High temperatures will range from the mid 70s to mid 80s Tuesday...
with highs from the upper 70s to around 90 degrees Wednesday through
Friday.  Tuesday night lows will range from the upper 50s to mid
60s...with lows in the 60s Wednesday and Thursday nights.

Low pressure passing off to the north on Friday will increase
precip chances.  Until then...conditions will remain dry.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to eastern NY
and western New England this afternoon into this evening. The
front will move move east of the region overnight. High Pressure
will be gradually building in from the western Great Lakes Region
and Midwest tomorrow.

VFR conditions will lower MVFR/IFR conditions in increasing
showers and thunderstorms btwn 20Z-00Z/SAT ahead of the front.
Some gusty winds are possible with the thunderstorms...and
VRB15G35KT wind groups were used in TEMPOs for KPSF/KPOU/KALB
with any thunderstorms. The thunderstorms should diminish prior to
02Z south and east of KALB.

Appreciable low-level moisture in the boundary layer coupled with
clearing skies will allow for some some MVFR mist/stratus to form.
It could be IFR...but our confidence is not high enough to place
in the TAFS this far out. Increasing west winds in the wake of the
front coupled with subsidence should allow the CIGS/VSBYS to
return to VFR levels btwn 12Z-14Z/SAT.

The winds will be southeast to south at 8-15 kts with gusts in
the 20-25 kt range this afternoon...and then shift to the
southwest to west at 5-10 kts this evening...before becoming west
at 5-10 kts between 06Z-12Z. The winds will strengthen from the
west at 10-15 kts in the late morning with gusts close to 25 kts.

Outlook...

Saturday through Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A frontal boundary will bring the chance for some showers and
thunderstorms to the region this afternoon into the evening. Some
of the thunderstorms may contain damaging winds or large hail.
Behind the front, it will be dry and less humid over the holiday
weekend with continued seasonable temperatures.

Relative humidity values will recover to 85 to 100 percent
tonight, drop to 35 to 50 percent on Saturday, recover to 70 to
100 percent Saturday night, and drop to 30 to 45 percent on
Sunday.

Winds will be southwest around 10 mph tonight, west at 10 to 15
mph with gusts up to 25 mph on Saturday, west at 10 to 15 mph
diminishing to less than 5 mph after midnight Saturday night, and
west at 10 to 15 mph on Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Dry weather has been a common theme this year, with many reporting
sites showing rainfall deficits of 3 to 7 inches below normal
levels. According to the USGS, streamflow levels are running below
normal over many parts of the region. The US Drought Monitor has
much of the region in either the D0 (Abnormally Dry) or D1
(Moderate Drought) categories.

An approaching cold front will bring widespread showers and
thunderstorms to the region this afternoon into this evening.
Localized rainfall totals of over an inch are possible, although
widespread rainfall amounts probably won`t be enough to make a big
dent in the rainfall deficits over the entire region. Despite the
dry conditions, there is always the potential for localized minor
flooding of urban or poor drainage areas if a heavy thunderstorm
rainfall occurs over a vulnerable area. However, widespread
flooding is not expected and river and stream levels will
generally only show minor rises from today`s rainfall or just hold
steady into the weekend. Dry weather will then return to the
region later tonight and be in place through at least early to mid next
week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011815
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
215 PM EDT Fri Jul 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Increasingly unsettled weather today as a upper level disturbance
and cold front bring heavy showers and strong to severe
thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight. Thunderstorms will be
capable of gusty winds, small hailstones and localized heavy
rainfall. Showers and thunderstorms move east of Vermont by
midnight tonight. Breezy conditions, cooler temperatures and
chances for showers start the Independence Day Weekend Saturday.
Mostly sunny skies and dry conditions should lead to good
conditions for outdoor holiday plans Sunday and on Independence
Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Friday...going forecast for the remainder of this
afternoon and evening still looks to be on track. thunderstorms
are rapidly developing across central new york, which is not
surprisingly where the best instability is at this point. tried to
show a little better detail in the gridded forecast with regard to
timing of the thunderstorms as they move across the area. thinking
about 4-430pm for them to move into the champlain valley. dynamics
are strong, with 0-6km shear already 30-40kts and still
increasing. big downside is the low boundary layer moisture.
dewpoints are still in the 50s across the region, but much jucier
air isn`t too far to the south. noted dewpoints well into the 60s
to lower 70s down in far southern new england. could see some of
that low level moisture make it`s way into the champlain valley
on the breezy southerly flow just as the storms get into vermont.
this could mean a bit of strengthening of the storms at the time.

at this point, it appears that strong wind gusts will be the
primary threat for any severe weather in this region. wind fields
are not as supportive of the tornado potential as they are farther
to our south. refer to the SPC outlook probabilities for more
details. we will be coordinating with SPC a bit later this
afternoon for the possibility of a severe t-storm watch in this
area.

will continue to also monitor the hydro aspect, however it looks
like the storm motion will be fast enough to preclude any
excessive rainfall in any location.

the hrrr, btv4 and btv6 models seem to be doing reasonably well,
so incorporated a blend of their output to help with the t-storm
timing and location.

main batch of storms will be out of northern new york by 00z, and
by 04z for vermont. However there could be a smaller second round
of convection more closely associated with the surface front and
upper trough. that would be the convection that is happening out
across southern ontario. don`t think that stuff would be strong,
but have maintained some chance level pops for parts of northern
new york for the after midnight hours.

had to up temperatures a couple of degrees as we were already at
previously forecasted highs and the thicker clouds hadn`t yet come
in.

with the passage of the cold front late tonight/daybreak saturday,
winds will turn west and northwest. looks like very good mixing
during the day, so anticipate a fairly breezy day with gusts
perhaps up to 30 mph at times. upper trough will be passing by
well to the north, but close enough that we may have a few showers
develop across the higher terrain of the `dacks and northern
Vermont. temperatures will be noticably cooler, lots of 60s to
lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 429 AM EDT Friday...Daytime showers end and turning dry for
any firework displays sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 429 AM EDT Friday...

Monday(4th) will be dry and seasonably warm. Late morning
temperatures in the 60s/70s will be ideal for any parades.

Broad ridge over the central US sets up for the rest of the week
with westerly flow and building heights thus warming trend through
the week and dry. Late week there are slight differences in the
models on a potential disturbance in the wnw flow but for now...warm
and dry. Dewpoints/moisture seem manageable until late week when
surface high slides east allowing southwest flow and greater
humidity with perhaps another northern stream upper low and trough
for stormy next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Through 18Z Saturday...showers and t-storms will be moving across
the region this afternoon and evening. tried to time the period of
thunderstorm activity based on most current radar trends, but will
likely have to issue a few amendments to fine tune things. in
general, looking at 19-21z for MSS, SLK, PBG, 1930-22z for BTV,
RUT and 20z-23z for MPV. Only indicated MVFR conditions at this
point, but realistically there will be brief periods of IFR with
any t-storm that directly impacts the TAF location. expect lighter
showers to continue for a couple of hours after the main event.
Bulk of showers/t-storms will be gone by 03z, however isolated
showers are possible later tonight across northern NY. may see
some MVFR ceilings develop after midnight in areas.

For Saturday, generally VFR, though gusty surface winds will
develop, occasionally gusting up around 25kts. Expect a few
showers during the afternoon up closer to the Canadian border.

Outlook 18Z Saturday through Wednesday...

18Z Saturday through 12z Sunday...Generally VFR, outside any
afternoon showers. Gusty surface winds will diminish after sunset.

12Z Sunday through Wednesday...VFR under high pressure during the
day. Possible overnight IFR to VLIFR fog at SLK and MPV each
evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 429 AM Friday...We continue to monitor potential for
localized heavy rainfall in strong to severe thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Strong QG forcing should help produce a
widespread rain for the area. Precipitable water values increase
during the afternoon and evening to around 1.3 to 1.5", moderately
high but again not excessive. The progressive nature of the mid-
level trough and storm motions should keep cells/lines moving, but
NEly Corfidi vectors of 10-15 kts supports potential for some
backbuilding. Will need to monitor convective evolution today for
this potential. Flash flood guidance still is rather high (3hr
values mainly 2-3"), but areas that will need to monitor for
heavy rainfall capable of small areas of flash flooding are in
Franklin and western Clinton Counties in NY and Orleans, Caledonia
and Essex Counties in VT given the flash flooding that occurred in
these areas early in the week. Urbanized areas and mountainous
terrain are common trouble spots as well. Main-stem river flooding
is not anticipated.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 950 AM Friday...Those boating on Lake Champlain today
should be aware of the potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms near the Lake during the mid-late afternoon and
evening hours. These thunderstorms will be capable of lightning,
small hail and gusty winds creating choppy waves and dangerous
boating conditions. A Lake Thunderstorm Advisory may become
necessary this afternoon as storms potentially develop/move toward
Lake Champlain. Stay alert and be prepared to seek safe harbor as
anticipated thunderstorms move from west to east this afternoon.

Saturday will feature gusty northwest winds, likely in the 15 to
25 knot range.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Nash
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Nash
HYDROLOGY...Banacos/Loconto
MARINE...Loconto/Banacos




000
FXUS61 KALY 011808
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
208 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
After a dry morning, a frontal boundary will bring the
chance for some showers and thunderstorms to the region this
afternoon into the evening. Some of the thunderstorms may contain
gusty winds or hail. Behind the front, it will be dry and less humid
over the holiday weekend with continued seasonable temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Tornado Watch 313 is in effect for all of eastern New York and
adjacent western New England until 10 PM this evening.

A potent upper level shortwave is currently located over the
eastern Great Lakes, with a surface cold front in place over
eastern Lake Erie and central Ohio and headed eastward. At the
current time, skies are currently partly to mostly cloudy over the
region.

Model projected CAPE values look to reach around 1000 J/kg by
this afternoon, with surface dewpoints rising into the low to
middle 60s, especially for southern parts of the Hudson Valley.
0-6 km bulk shear values rise to around 40 kts, mid level lapse
rates will be around 6 deg C/km. Although these numbers aren`t
overwhelming, they should be enough for some storms to become
strong to severe, with damaging winds, large hail and a
possibility of tornadoes.

Before clouds/precip move into the region this afternoon, temps
should warm up into the upper 70s to mid 80s in most areas. The
combination of seasonably warm temperatures and muggy levels of
humidity will make it feel somewhat sticky out there (certainly
not as bad as it could be, but considering since there have not
been very many humid days this summer, it may be noticeable).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Some showers/t-storms may linger into the evening, but should be
ending during the overnight hours as the cold front crosses the
region from west to east.

Humidity levels will start to fall with dewpoints dropping into
the 50s for Saturday. With the upper level trough passing by to
the north, there could be a pop-up instability rain shower for the
western or central Adirondacks on Saturday, but most areas look
to remain dry with just a partly to mostly sunny sky. Highs will
mainly be in the upper 60s to upper 70s across the area. In
addition, a westerly breeze will be gusty during the afternoon
hours as well.

Surface high pressure will be building into the region from the
southwest for Saturday night into Sunday. This will keep the dry
weather in place. Overnight lows on Sat night will be in the 50s
(some upper 40s over the highest terrain). Highs on Sunday will be
a little warmer than Saturday as temps aloft start to warm back up
with the upper trough finally moving away. Highs will be in the
upper 70s to low 80s for valley areas with a mostly sunny sky. Dry
weather will continue right into Sun night with clear skies and
lows in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Expecting fair and dry weather through at least mid week as
broad ridging dominates. A front is forecast to be stalled
to our south across the mid Atlantic region and a wave of low
pressure is expected to move eastward along the boundary. Overall
guidance indicates rainfall should remain well to our south as the
wave moves of the mid Atlantic coast Tuesday. Guidance then
indicates the longwave pattern should flatten becoming nearly
zonal across the region as we head into the latter part of the
week. Have maintained slight chance pops for Thursday as there are
uncertainties to the position and movement of a upper level low
over Hudson Bay Canada and how it may influence/impact our weather.

Temperatures for Independence Day/Monday are expected to be
seasonably warm with highs mainly ranging from the mid 70s to mid
80s. As we head through the week each day should be a couple
degrees warmer across much of the forecast area each day with
highs in the 80s even across much of the higher terrain by
Thursday. Each day should also be a bit more humid which will be
more noticeably at night with warmer lows each night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to eastern NY
and western New England this afternoon into this evening. The
front will move move east of the region overnight. High Pressure
will be gradually building in from the western Great Lakes Region
and Midwest tomorrow.

VFR conditions will lower MVFR/IFR conditions in increasing
showers and thunderstorms btwn 20Z-00Z/SAT ahead of the front.
Some gusty winds are possible with the thunderstorms...and
VRB15G35KT wind groups were used in TEMPOs for KPSF/KPOU/KALB
with any thunderstorms. The thunderstorms should diminish prior to
02Z south and east of KALB.

Appreciable low-level moisture in the boundary layer coupled with
clearing skies will allow for some some MVFR mist/stratus to form.
It could be IFR...but our confidence is not high enough to place
in the TAFS this far out. Increasing west winds in the wake of the
front coupled with subsidence should allow the CIGS/VSBYS to
return to VFR levels btwn 12Z-14Z/SAT.

The winds will be southeast to south at 8-15 kts with gusts in
the 20-25 kt range this afternoon...and then shift to the
southwest to west at 5-10 kts this evening...before becoming west
at 5-10 kts between 06Z-12Z. The winds will strengthen from the
west at 10-15 kts in the late morning with gusts close to 25 kts.

Outlook...

Saturday through Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH values will only fall to 50 to 60 percent today with showers
and thunderstorms possible this afternoon. South winds will be 10
to 15 mph today. These winds will switch to the west tonight
around 5 to 10 MPH, along with RH values returning to near 100
percent.

RH values will fall to 35 to 55 percent on Saturday afternoon.
West winds will be 10 to 20 mph, with a few higher gusts possible.
Dry weather is expected Saturday into Sunday.

RH values may be as low as 30 to 40 percent on Sunday afternoon and
west winds will be 10 to 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Dry weather has been a common theme this year, with many reporting
sites showing rainfall deficits of 3 to 7 inches below normal
levels. According to the USGS, streamflow levels are running below
normal over many parts of the region. The US Drought Monitor has
much of the region in either the D0 (Abnormally Dry) or D1
(Moderate Drought) categories.

An approaching cold front will bring widespread showers and
thunderstorms to the region this afternoon into this evening.
Localized rainfall totals of over an inch are possible, although
widespread rainfall amounts probably won`t be enough to make a big
dent in the rainfall deficits over the entire region. Despite the
dry conditions, there is always the potential for localized minor
flooding of urban or poor drainage areas if a heavy thunderstorm
rainfall occurs over a vulnerable area. However, widespread
flooding is not expected and river and stream levels will
generally only show minor rises from today`s rainfall or just hold
steady into the weekend. Dry weather will then return to the
region later tonight and be in place through at least early to mid next
week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis/11
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis
HYDROLOGY...Frugis




000
FXUS61 KALY 011705
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
105 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
After a dry morning, a frontal boundary will bring the
chance for some showers and thunderstorms to the region this
afternoon into the evening. Some of the thunderstorms may contain
gusty winds or hail. Behind the front, it will be dry and less humid
over the holiday weekend with continued seasonable temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1225 PM EDT...A potent upper level shortwave is currently
located over the eastern Great Lakes, with a surface cold front in
place over eastern Lake Erie and central Ohio and headed eastward.
At the current time, skies are currently partly to mostly cloudy
over the region.

Model projected CAPE values look to reach around 1000 J/kg by
this afternoon, with surface dewpoints rising into the low to
middle 60s, especially for southern parts of the Hudson Valley.
0-6 km bulk shear values rise to around 40 kts.

By this afternoon, the shortwave trough and surface cold front
will be getting closer to the area, and some showers and
thunderstorms will start spreading into the region from the southwest.
By the afternoon hours, mid level lapse rates will be around 6
deg C/km. Although these numbers aren`t overwhelming, they should
be enough for some storms to become strong to severe, with
damaging winds being the main threat. SPC continues to place much
of the region in a Slight Risk for severe t-storms and we will
continue to highlight gusty winds and hail as a threat within our
products. Many of the HIRES models (including the HRRRx and WRF)
all suggest that 19z-00z would be the main threat time for
t-storms (including any potential strong to severe t-storms) to
move across our area.

Before clouds/precip move into the region this afternoon, temps
should warm up into the upper 70s to mid 80s in most areas. The
combination of seasonably warm temperatures and muggy levels of
humidity will make it feel somewhat sticky out there (certainly
not as bad as it could be, but considering since there have not
been very many humid days this summer, it may be noticeable).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Some showers/t-storms may linger into the evening, but should be
ending during the overnight hours as the cold front crosses the
region from west to east.

Humidity levels will start to fall with dewpoints dropping into
the 50s for Saturday. With the upper level trough passing by to
the north, there could be a pop-up instability rain shower for the
western or central Adirondacks on Saturday, but most areas look
to remain dry with just a partly to mostly sunny sky. Highs will
mainly be in the upper 60s to upper 70s across the area. In
addition, a westerly breeze will be gusty during the afternoon
hours as well.

Surface high pressure will be building into the region from the
southwest for Saturday night into Sunday. This will keep the dry
weather in place. Overnight lows on Sat night will be in the 50s
(some upper 40s over the highest terrain). Highs on Sunday will be
a little warmer than Saturday as temps aloft start to warm back up
with the upper trough finally moving away. Highs will be in the
upper 70s to low 80s for valley areas with a mostly sunny sky. Dry
weather will continue right into Sun night with clear skies and
lows in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Expecting fair and dry weather through at least mid week as
broad ridging dominates. A front is forecast to be stalled
to our south across the mid Atlantic region and a wave of low
pressure is expected to move eastward along the boundary. Overall
guidance indicates rainfall should remain well to our south as the
wave moves of the mid Atlantic coast Tuesday. Guidance then
indicates the longwave pattern should flatten becoming nearly
zonal across the region as we head into the latter part of the
week. Have maintained slight chance pops for Thursday as there are
uncertainties to the position and movement of a upper level low
over Hudson Bay Canada and how it may influence/impact our weather.

Temperatures for Independence Day/Monday are expected to be
seasonably warm with highs mainly ranging from the mid 70s to mid
80s. As we head through the week each day should be a couple
degrees warmer across much of the forecast area each day with
highs in the 80s even across much of the higher terrain by
Thursday. Each day should also be a bit more humid which will be
more noticeably at night with warmer lows each night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to eastern NY
and western New England this afternoon into this evening. The
front will move move east of the region overnight. High Pressure
will be gradually building in from the western Great Lakes Region
and Midwest tomorrow.

VFR conditions will lower MVFR/IFR conditions in increasing
showers and thunderstorms btwn 20Z-00Z/SAT ahead of the front.
Some gusty winds are possible with the thunderstorms...and
VRB15G35KT wind groups were used in TEMPOs for KPSF/KPOU/KALB
with any thunderstorms. The thunderstorms should diminish prior to
02Z south and east of KALB.

Appreciable low-level moisture in the boundary layer coupled with
clearing skies will allow for some some MVFR mist/stratus to form.
It could be IFR...but our confidence is not high enough to place
in the TAFS this far out. Increasing west winds in the wake of the
front coupled with subsidence should allow the CIGS/VSBYS to
return to VFR levels btwn 12Z-14Z/SAT.

The winds will be southeast to south at 8-15 kts with gusts in
the 20-25 kt range this afternoon...and then shift to the
southwest to west at 5-10 kts this evening...before becoming west
at 5-10 kts between 06Z-12Z. The winds will strengthen from the
west at 10-15 kts in the late morning with gusts close to 25 kts.

Outlook...

Saturday through Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH values will only fall to 50 to 60 percent today with showers
and thunderstorms possible this afternoon. South winds will be 10
to 15 mph today. These winds will switch to the west tonight
around 5 to 10 MPH, along with RH values returning to near 100
percent.

RH values will fall to 35 to 55 percent on Saturday afternoon.
West winds will be 10 to 20 mph, with a few higher gusts possible.
Dry weather is expected Saturday into Sunday.

RH values may be as low as 30 to 40 percent on Sunday afternoon and
west winds will be 10 to 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Dry weather has been a common theme this year, with many reporting
sites showing rainfall deficits of 3 to 7 inches below normal
levels. According to the USGS, streamflow levels are running below
normal over many parts of the region. The US Drought Monitor has
much of the region in either the D0 (Abnormally Dry) or D1
(Moderate Drought) categories.

An approaching cold front will bring widespread showers and
thunderstorms to the region this afternoon into this evening.
Localized rainfall totals of over an inch are possible, although
widespread rainfall amounts probably won`t be enough to make a big
dent in the rainfall deficits over the entire region. Despite the
dry conditions, there is always the potential for localized minor
flooding of urban or poor drainage areas if a heavy thunderstorm
rainfall occurs over a vulnerable area. However, widespread
flooding is not expected and river and stream levels will
generally only show minor rises from today`s rainfall or just hold
steady into the weekend. Dry weather will then return to the
region later tonight and be in place through at least early to mid next
week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis/11
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis
HYDROLOGY...Frugis




000
FXUS61 KALY 011705
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
105 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
After a dry morning, a frontal boundary will bring the
chance for some showers and thunderstorms to the region this
afternoon into the evening. Some of the thunderstorms may contain
gusty winds or hail. Behind the front, it will be dry and less humid
over the holiday weekend with continued seasonable temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1225 PM EDT...A potent upper level shortwave is currently
located over the eastern Great Lakes, with a surface cold front in
place over eastern Lake Erie and central Ohio and headed eastward.
At the current time, skies are currently partly to mostly cloudy
over the region.

Model projected CAPE values look to reach around 1000 J/kg by
this afternoon, with surface dewpoints rising into the low to
middle 60s, especially for southern parts of the Hudson Valley.
0-6 km bulk shear values rise to around 40 kts.

By this afternoon, the shortwave trough and surface cold front
will be getting closer to the area, and some showers and
thunderstorms will start spreading into the region from the southwest.
By the afternoon hours, mid level lapse rates will be around 6
deg C/km. Although these numbers aren`t overwhelming, they should
be enough for some storms to become strong to severe, with
damaging winds being the main threat. SPC continues to place much
of the region in a Slight Risk for severe t-storms and we will
continue to highlight gusty winds and hail as a threat within our
products. Many of the HIRES models (including the HRRRx and WRF)
all suggest that 19z-00z would be the main threat time for
t-storms (including any potential strong to severe t-storms) to
move across our area.

Before clouds/precip move into the region this afternoon, temps
should warm up into the upper 70s to mid 80s in most areas. The
combination of seasonably warm temperatures and muggy levels of
humidity will make it feel somewhat sticky out there (certainly
not as bad as it could be, but considering since there have not
been very many humid days this summer, it may be noticeable).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Some showers/t-storms may linger into the evening, but should be
ending during the overnight hours as the cold front crosses the
region from west to east.

Humidity levels will start to fall with dewpoints dropping into
the 50s for Saturday. With the upper level trough passing by to
the north, there could be a pop-up instability rain shower for the
western or central Adirondacks on Saturday, but most areas look
to remain dry with just a partly to mostly sunny sky. Highs will
mainly be in the upper 60s to upper 70s across the area. In
addition, a westerly breeze will be gusty during the afternoon
hours as well.

Surface high pressure will be building into the region from the
southwest for Saturday night into Sunday. This will keep the dry
weather in place. Overnight lows on Sat night will be in the 50s
(some upper 40s over the highest terrain). Highs on Sunday will be
a little warmer than Saturday as temps aloft start to warm back up
with the upper trough finally moving away. Highs will be in the
upper 70s to low 80s for valley areas with a mostly sunny sky. Dry
weather will continue right into Sun night with clear skies and
lows in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Expecting fair and dry weather through at least mid week as
broad ridging dominates. A front is forecast to be stalled
to our south across the mid Atlantic region and a wave of low
pressure is expected to move eastward along the boundary. Overall
guidance indicates rainfall should remain well to our south as the
wave moves of the mid Atlantic coast Tuesday. Guidance then
indicates the longwave pattern should flatten becoming nearly
zonal across the region as we head into the latter part of the
week. Have maintained slight chance pops for Thursday as there are
uncertainties to the position and movement of a upper level low
over Hudson Bay Canada and how it may influence/impact our weather.

Temperatures for Independence Day/Monday are expected to be
seasonably warm with highs mainly ranging from the mid 70s to mid
80s. As we head through the week each day should be a couple
degrees warmer across much of the forecast area each day with
highs in the 80s even across much of the higher terrain by
Thursday. Each day should also be a bit more humid which will be
more noticeably at night with warmer lows each night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to eastern NY
and western New England this afternoon into this evening. The
front will move move east of the region overnight. High Pressure
will be gradually building in from the western Great Lakes Region
and Midwest tomorrow.

VFR conditions will lower MVFR/IFR conditions in increasing
showers and thunderstorms btwn 20Z-00Z/SAT ahead of the front.
Some gusty winds are possible with the thunderstorms...and
VRB15G35KT wind groups were used in TEMPOs for KPSF/KPOU/KALB
with any thunderstorms. The thunderstorms should diminish prior to
02Z south and east of KALB.

Appreciable low-level moisture in the boundary layer coupled with
clearing skies will allow for some some MVFR mist/stratus to form.
It could be IFR...but our confidence is not high enough to place
in the TAFS this far out. Increasing west winds in the wake of the
front coupled with subsidence should allow the CIGS/VSBYS to
return to VFR levels btwn 12Z-14Z/SAT.

The winds will be southeast to south at 8-15 kts with gusts in
the 20-25 kt range this afternoon...and then shift to the
southwest to west at 5-10 kts this evening...before becoming west
at 5-10 kts between 06Z-12Z. The winds will strengthen from the
west at 10-15 kts in the late morning with gusts close to 25 kts.

Outlook...

Saturday through Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH values will only fall to 50 to 60 percent today with showers
and thunderstorms possible this afternoon. South winds will be 10
to 15 mph today. These winds will switch to the west tonight
around 5 to 10 MPH, along with RH values returning to near 100
percent.

RH values will fall to 35 to 55 percent on Saturday afternoon.
West winds will be 10 to 20 mph, with a few higher gusts possible.
Dry weather is expected Saturday into Sunday.

RH values may be as low as 30 to 40 percent on Sunday afternoon and
west winds will be 10 to 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Dry weather has been a common theme this year, with many reporting
sites showing rainfall deficits of 3 to 7 inches below normal
levels. According to the USGS, streamflow levels are running below
normal over many parts of the region. The US Drought Monitor has
much of the region in either the D0 (Abnormally Dry) or D1
(Moderate Drought) categories.

An approaching cold front will bring widespread showers and
thunderstorms to the region this afternoon into this evening.
Localized rainfall totals of over an inch are possible, although
widespread rainfall amounts probably won`t be enough to make a big
dent in the rainfall deficits over the entire region. Despite the
dry conditions, there is always the potential for localized minor
flooding of urban or poor drainage areas if a heavy thunderstorm
rainfall occurs over a vulnerable area. However, widespread
flooding is not expected and river and stream levels will
generally only show minor rises from today`s rainfall or just hold
steady into the weekend. Dry weather will then return to the
region later tonight and be in place through at least early to mid next
week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis/11
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis
HYDROLOGY...Frugis




000
FXUS61 KALY 011625
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1225 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
After a dry morning, a frontal boundary will bring the
chance for some showers and thunderstorms to the region this
afternoon into the evening. Some of the thunderstorms may contain
gusty winds or hail. Behind the front, it will be dry and less humid
over the holiday weekend with continued seasonable temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1225 PM EDT...A potent upper level shortwave is currently
located over the eastern Great Lakes, with a surface cold front in
place over eastern Lake Erie and central Ohio and headed eastward.
At the current time, skies are currently partly to mostly cloudy
over the region.

Model projected CAPE values look to reach around 1000 J/kg by
this afternoon, with surface dewpoints rising into the low to
middle 60s, especially for southern parts of the Hudson Valley.
0-6 km bulk shear values rise to around 40 kts.

By this afternoon, the shortwave trough and surface cold front
will be getting closer to the area, and some showers and
thunderstorms will start spreading into the region from the southwest.
By the afternoon hours, mid level lapse rates will be around 6
deg C/km. Although these numbers aren`t overwhelming, they should
be enough for some storms to become strong to severe, with
damaging winds being the main threat. SPC continues to place much
of the region in a Slight Risk for severe t-storms and we will
continue to highlight gusty winds and hail as a threat within our
products. Many of the HIRES models (including the HRRRx and WRF)
all suggest that 19z-00z would be the main threat time for
t-storms (including any potential strong to severe t-storms) to
move across our area.

Before clouds/precip move into the region this afternoon, temps
should warm up into the upper 70s to mid 80s in most areas. The
combination of seasonably warm temperatures and muggy levels of
humidity will make it feel somewhat sticky out there (certainly
not as bad as it could be, but considering since there have not
been very many humid days this summer, it may be noticeable).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Some showers/t-storms may linger into the evening, but should be
ending during the overnight hours as the cold front crosses the
region from west to east.

Humidity levels will start to fall with dewpoints dropping into
the 50s for Saturday. With the upper level trough passing by to
the north, there could be a pop-up instability rain shower for the
western or central Adirondacks on Saturday, but most areas look
to remain dry with just a partly to mostly sunny sky. Highs will
mainly be in the upper 60s to upper 70s across the area. In
addition, a westerly breeze will be gusty during the afternoon
hours as well.

Surface high pressure will be building into the region from the
southwest for Saturday night into Sunday. This will keep the dry
weather in place. Overnight lows on Sat night will be in the 50s
(some upper 40s over the highest terrain). Highs on Sunday will be
a little warmer than Saturday as temps aloft start to warm back up
with the upper trough finally moving away. Highs will be in the
upper 70s to low 80s for valley areas with a mostly sunny sky. Dry
weather will continue right into Sun night with clear skies and
lows in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Expecting fair and dry weather through at least mid week as
broad ridging dominates. A front is forecast to be stalled
to our south across the mid Atlantic region and a wave of low
pressure is expected to move eastward along the boundary. Overall
guidance indicates rainfall should remain well to our south as the
wave moves of the mid Atlantic coast Tuesday. Guidance then
indicates the longwave pattern should flatten becoming nearly
zonal across the region as we head into the latter part of the
week. Have maintained slight chance pops for Thursday as there are
uncertainties to the position and movement of a upper level low
over Hudson Bay Canada and how it may influence/impact our weather.

Temperatures for Independence Day/Monday are expected to be
seasonably warm with highs mainly ranging from the mid 70s to mid
80s. As we head through the week each day should be a couple
degrees warmer across much of the forecast area each day with
highs in the 80s even across much of the higher terrain by
Thursday. Each day should also be a bit more humid which will be
more noticeably at night with warmer lows each night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure over the region will continue to weaken and shift
eastward this morning. A cold front and an upper level disturbance
will approach from the Great Lakes Region today crossing the local
area this evening. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will
increase as we head into and through the afternoon hours.

VFR conditions are expected through the morning hours into the
afternoon with cloud cover in the increase. Showers along with
scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid to late afternoon at
the TAF sites. MVFR conditions will accompany the storms with IFR
conditions expected at times. Have not include IFR in the TAF at
this time since not confidence on timing of occurrence. Conditions
are expected to improve during the evening hours as storms move
off to the east however MVFR conditions are expected to develop
by late at night due to visibility and/or ceilings.

Calm winds will become mainly southerly at 5 to 10 knots with gusts
develop by late morning/early afternoon up the Hudson River Valley.
Gusts up to 20 knots are expected. Winds will decreasing and shift
to the southwest in the evening as the cold front gets closer and
will shift to the west with the passage of the boundary.

Winds will be much stronger, and variable in direction in and near
any thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Saturday through Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH values will only fall to 50 to 60 percent today with showers
and thunderstorms possible this afternoon. South winds will be 10
to 15 mph today. These winds will switch to the west tonight
around 5 to 10 MPH, along with RH values returning to near 100
percent.

RH values will fall to 35 to 55 percent on Saturday afternoon.
West winds will be 10 to 20 mph, with a few higher gusts possible.
Dry weather is expected Saturday into Sunday.

RH values may be as low as 30 to 40 percent on Sunday afternoon and
west winds will be 10 to 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Dry weather has been a common theme this year, with many reporting
sites showing rainfall deficits of 3 to 7 inches below normal
levels. According to the USGS, streamflow levels are running below
normal over many parts of the region. The US Drought Monitor has
much of the region in either the D0 (Abnormally Dry) or D1
(Moderate Drought) categories.

An approaching cold front will bring widespread showers and
thunderstorms to the region this afternoon into this evening.
Localized rainfall totals of over an inch are possible, although
widespread rainfall amounts probably won`t be enough to make a big
dent in the rainfall deficits over the entire region. Despite the
dry conditions, there is always the potential for localized minor
flooding of urban or poor drainage areas if a heavy thunderstorm
rainfall occurs over a vulnerable area. However, widespread
flooding is not expected and river and stream levels will
generally only show minor rises from today`s rainfall or just hold
steady into the weekend. Dry weather will then return to the
region later tonight and be in place through at least early to mid next
week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis/11
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis
HYDROLOGY...Frugis




000
FXUS61 KALY 011424
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1024 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
After a dry morning, a frontal boundary will bring the
chance for some showers and thunderstorms to the region this
afternoon into the evening. Some of the thunderstorms may contain
gusty winds or hail. Behind the front, it will be dry and less humid
over the holiday weekend with continued seasonable temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1020 AM EDT...A potent upper level shortwave is currently
located over the eastern Great Lakes, with a surface cold front
in place over eastern Lake Erie and central Ohio and headed
eastward. At the current time, skies are currently partly cloudy over
the region.

During the morning hours, skies will be partly sunny with a light
southerly wind. Some clouds will continue to increase from west to
east by the late morning. The 12z 3km HRRR shows dry weather
remaining in place through noon, with any showers/t-storms still
well upstream of the region over western New York. With the sunny
skies and southerly winds advecting moisture into the region, the
atmosphere will become unstable. Model projected CAPE values look
to reach around 1000 J/kg by this afternoon, with surface
dewpoints rising into the low to middle 60s, especially for
southern parts of the Hudson Valley. 0-6 km bulk shear values rise
to around 40 kts just to our west.

By this afternoon, the shortwave trough and surface cold front
will be getting closer to the area, and some showers and
thunderstorms will start spreading into the region from the west.
By the afternoon hours, 0-6 km bulk shear will be around 40 kts
and mid level lapse rates will be around 6 deg C/km. Although
these numbers aren`t overwhelming, they should be enough for some
storms to become strong to severe, with damaging winds being the
main threat. SPC continues to place much of the region in a Slight
Risk for severe t-storms and we will continue to highlight gusty
winds and hail as a threat within our products. Many of the HIRES
models (including the HRRRx and WRF) all suggest that 20z-00z
would be the main threat time for t-storms (including any
potential strong to severe t-storms) to move across our area.

Before clouds/precip move into the region this afternoon, temps
should warm up into the upper 70s to low 80s in most areas. The
combination of seasonably warm temperatures and muggy levels of
humidity will make it feel somewhat sticky out there (certainly
not as bad as it could be, but considering since there have not been
very many humid days this summer, it may be noticeable).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Some showers/t-storms may linger into the evening, but should be
ending during the overnight hours as the cold front crosses the
region from west to east.

Humidity levels will start to fall with dewpoints dropping into
the 50s for Saturday. With the upper level trough passing by to
the north, there could be a pop-up instability rain shower for the
western or central Adirondacks on Saturday, but most areas look
to remain dry with just a partly to mostly sunny sky. Highs will
mainly be in the upper 60s to upper 70s across the area. In
addition, a westerly breeze will be gusty during the afternoon
hours as well.

Surface high pressure will be building into the region from the
southwest for Saturday night into Sunday. This will keep the dry
weather in place. Overnight lows on Sat night will be in the 50s
(some upper 40s over the highest terrain). Highs on Sunday will be
a little warmer than Saturday as temps aloft start to warm back up
with the upper trough finally moving away. Highs will be in the
upper 70s to low 80s for valley areas with a mostly sunny sky. Dry
weather will continue right into Sun night with clear skies and
lows in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Expecting fair and dry weather through at least mid week as
broad ridging dominates. A front is forecast to be stalled
to our south across the mid Atlantic region and a wave of low
pressure is expected to move eastward along the boundary. Overall
guidance indicates rainfall should remain well to our south as the
wave moves of the mid Atlantic coast Tuesday. Guidance then
indicates the longwave pattern should flatten becoming nearly
zonal across the region as we head into the latter part of the
week. Have maintained slight chance pops for Thursday as there are
uncertainties to the position and movement of a upper level low
over Hudson Bay Canada and how it may influence/impact our weather.

Temperatures for Independence Day/Monday are expected to be
seasonably warm with highs mainly ranging from the mid 70s to mid
80s. As we head through the week each day should be a couple
degrees warmer across much of the forecast area each day with
highs in the 80s even across much of the higher terrain by
Thursday. Each day should also be a bit more humid which will be
more noticeably at night with warmer lows each night.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure over the region will continue to weaken and shift
eastward this morning. A cold front and an upper level disturbance
will approach from the Great Lakes Region today crossing the local
area this evening. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will
increase as we head into and through the afternoon hours.

VFR conditions are expected through the morning hours into the
afternoon with cloud cover in the increase. Showers along with
scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid to late afternoon at
the TAF sites. MVFR conditions will accompany the storms with IFR
conditions expected at times. Have not include IFR in the TAF at
this time since not confidence on timing of occurrence. Conditions
are expected to improve during the evening hours as storms move
off to the east however MVFR conditions are expected to develop
by late at night due to visibility and/or ceilings.

Calm winds will become mainly southerly at 5 to 10 knots with gusts
develop by late morning/early afternoon up the Hudson River Valley.
Gusts up to 20 knots are expected. Winds will decreasing and shift
to the southwest in the evening as the cold front gets closer and
will shift to the west with the passage of the boundary.

Winds will be much stronger, and variable in direction in and near
any thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Saturday through Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH values will only fall to 50 to 60 percent today with showers
and thunderstorms possible this afternoon. South winds will be 10
to 15 mph today. These winds will switch to the west tonight
around 5 to 10 MPH, along with RH values returning to near 100
percent.

RH values will fall to 35 to 55 percent on Saturday afternoon.
West winds will be 10 to 20 mph, with a few higher gusts possible.
Dry weather is expected Saturday into Sunday.

RH values may be as low as 30 to 40 percent on Sunday afternoon and
west winds will be 10 to 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Dry weather has been a common theme this year, with many reporting
sites showing rainfall deficits of 3 to 7 inches below normal
levels. According to the USGS, streamflow levels are running below
normal over many parts of the region. The US Drought Monitor has
much of the region in either the D0 (Abnormally Dry) or D1
(Moderate Drought) categories.

An approaching cold front will bring widespread showers and
thunderstorms to the region this afternoon into this evening.
Localized rainfall totals of over an inch are possible, although
widespread rainfall amounts probably won`t be enough to make a big
dent in the rainfall deficits over the entire region. Despite the
dry conditions, there is always the potential for localized minor
flooding of urban or poor drainage areas if a heavy thunderstorm
rainfall occurs over a vulnerable area. However, widespread
flooding is not expected and river and stream levels will
generally only show minor rises from today`s rainfall or just hold
steady into the weekend. Dry weather will then return to the
region later tonight and be in place through at least early to mid next
week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis/11
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis
HYDROLOGY...Frugis




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011355
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
955 AM EDT Fri Jul 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Increasingly unsettled weather today as a upper level disturbance
and cold front bring heavy showers and strong to severe
thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight. Thunderstorms will be
capable of gusty winds, small hailstones and localized heavy
rainfall. Showers and thunderstorms move east of Vermont by
midnight tonight. Breezy conditions, cooler temperatures and
chances for showers start the Independence Day Weekend Saturday.
Mostly sunny skies and dry conditions should lead to good
conditions for outdoor holiday plans Sunday and on Independence
Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 928 AM EDT Friday...Forecast remains on track with potential
strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across
the North Country. Locally heavy rainfall may pose some hydrologic
concerns as well, mainly across the nrn Adirondacks and n-central
into nern VT where antecedent soil conditions are the most moist.

Mid-level forcing preceding mid-level vort crossing Lake Huron at
1330Z is resulting in well-defined frontal rainband across sern
Ontario into nern OH and nwrn PA. Will have several hours of good
insolational heating in advance of the increased forcing and
cyclonic flow moving in with this trough for the afternoon. 500mb
trough acquires slight negative tilt as vort axis shifts across
Lake Erie and into nrn NY late this afternoon into this evening,
with moderately strong 700-500mb height falls across the North
Country this afternoon. Overall, no significant changes from
earlier thinking in terms of instability/shear parameter space and
setup. Surface to 6km bulk shear values increase to 30-40kts from
west to east during the mid-late aftn hours, supporting organized
and persistent updrafts. CAPE is a bit more marginal; while we
should see steeper low-level lapse rates set up with the
sunshine, instability will be limited to 1000 to 1200 J/kg of
SBCAPE at best due to surface dewpoints only expected in the 50s
(currently 76/51 at BTV at 1330Z). There is a warm front/dewpoint
bndry vcnty of NYC, with low 70s dewpoints south of the front.
Will see a better moisture surge late in the day as southerly
925-850mb flow increases to 25-35kts. However, it appears much of
that surge will be coincident with ongoing storms, perhaps
enhancing rainfall rates but not aiding in CAPE for the pre-storm
environment. Thus, CAPE values peaking around 1000 J/kg appear on
track. Main threat should be straight line winds with embedded bow
echoes, especially given relatively low sub-cloud RH values and
potential for sub- cloud evaporation. Expect ongoing rain band to
gradually become more convective in minimal CINH environment
across nrn NY late this morning into early this afternoon, with
perhaps a few rotating storms in advance of the line moving newd
from central/e-central NY into the srn Champlain Valley or
s-central VT for the mid-late afternoon hrs. Mainly linear
convective bands should sweep across central/ern VT late afternoon
into the early evening, consistent with HRRR, BTV-4/6 and the NAM
ARW/NMM runs. Have maintained enhanced wording for gusty winds,
heavy rain and small hail in the Wx grids, with highest PoPs in
the 20-03z period (90-100%). Storms should pass into NH by
midnight, with residual slight chance PoPs west to east following
westerly wind shift and frontal passage.

Looking at highs today in the upper 70s to lower 80s, and around
83F at BTV. Lows tonight mainly in the 50s with lowest low temps
in NY and on the warmer end of that range across VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 429 AM EDT Friday...Saturday becomes our typical post
frontal regime with the upper low settling in over the area with
lowering heights, residual low level moisture and west to
northwest upslope flow allowing for showers, mainly across the
northern portion of the area closer to the upper low centered over
Quebec. It will be cool and breezy as well with highs only around
70 and northwest winds 15-25 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 429 AM EDT Friday...Daytime showers end and turning dry for
any firework displays sunday night.

Monday(4th) will be dry and seasonably warm. Late morning
temperatures in the 60s/70s will be ideal for any parades.

Broad ridge over the central US sets up for the rest of the week
with westerly flow and building heights thus warming trend through
the week and dry. Late week there are slight differences in the
models on a potential disturbance in the wnw flow but for now...warm
and dry. Dewpoints/moisture seem manageable until late week when
surface high slides east allowing southwest flow and greater
humidity with perhaps another northern stream upper low and trough
for stormy next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Through 12Z Saturday...VFR through the morning hours, though
focus shifts the afternoon and evening with strong to potential
severe thunderstorms. Showers and strong storms starting around
18-21z as a cold front nears and eventually sweeps across the
area. Frequent lightning, gusty winds capable of localized
turbulence, at least small hail and heavy downpours capable of
brief IFR visibility restrictions are all possibilities in the
strongest cells. Maintained MVFR +SHRA group in the TAFs to
reflect when the period of greatest strong thunderstorm threat
would be. Later TAFs issuances can better define specific
timing/impact. Cold front exits into NH by 06z with dissipating
showers and a west wind shift. Will need to watch for possible
MVFR ceilings after 06z, particularly for the NY TAF sites.

Outlook 12Z Saturday through Tuesday...

12Z Saturday through 12z Sunday...Generally VFR, though daytime
VFR/MVFR visibility showers as an upper level disturbance passes
to our north. Gusty northwest winds of 25-30 knots likely to be
biggest impact on aviation, strongest during the afternoon hours.

12Z Sunday through Tuesday...VFR under high pressure during the
day. Possible overnight IFR to VLIFR fog at SLK and MPV each
evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 429 AM Friday...We continue to monitor potential for
localized heavy rainfall in strong to severe thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Strong QG forcing should help produce a
widespread rain for the area. Precipitable water values increase
during the afternoon and evening to around 1.3 to 1.5", moderately
high but again not excessive. The progressive nature of the mid-
level trough and storm motions should keep cells/lines moving, but
NEly Corfidi vectors of 10-15 kts supports potential for some
backbuilding. Will need to monitor convective evolution today for
this potential. Flash flood guidance still is rather high (3hr
values mainly 2-3"), but areas that will need to monitor for
heavy rainfall capable of small areas of flash flooding are in
Franklin and western Clinton Counties in NY and Orleans, Caledonia
and Essex Counties in VT given the flash flooding that occurred in
these areas early in the week. Urbanized areas and mountainous
terrain are common trouble spots as well. Main-stem river flooding
is not anticipated.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 950 AM Friday...Those boating on Lake Champlain today
should be aware of the potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms near the Lake during the mid-late afternoon and
evening hours. These thunderstorms will be capable of lightning,
small hail and gusty winds creating choppy waves and dangerous
boating conditions. A Lake Thunderstorm Advisory may become
necessary this afternoon as storms potentially develop/move toward
Lake Champlain. Stay alert and be prepared to seek safe harbor as
anticipated thunderstorms move from west to east this afternoon.

Saturday will feature gusty northwest winds, likely in the 15 to
25 knot range.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Loconto
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Loconto
HYDROLOGY...Banacos/Loconto
MARINE...Loconto/Banacos




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011355
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
955 AM EDT Fri Jul 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Increasingly unsettled weather today as a upper level disturbance
and cold front bring heavy showers and strong to severe
thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight. Thunderstorms will be
capable of gusty winds, small hailstones and localized heavy
rainfall. Showers and thunderstorms move east of Vermont by
midnight tonight. Breezy conditions, cooler temperatures and
chances for showers start the Independence Day Weekend Saturday.
Mostly sunny skies and dry conditions should lead to good
conditions for outdoor holiday plans Sunday and on Independence
Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 928 AM EDT Friday...Forecast remains on track with potential
strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across
the North Country. Locally heavy rainfall may pose some hydrologic
concerns as well, mainly across the nrn Adirondacks and n-central
into nern VT where antecedent soil conditions are the most moist.

Mid-level forcing preceding mid-level vort crossing Lake Huron at
1330Z is resulting in well-defined frontal rainband across sern
Ontario into nern OH and nwrn PA. Will have several hours of good
insolational heating in advance of the increased forcing and
cyclonic flow moving in with this trough for the afternoon. 500mb
trough acquires slight negative tilt as vort axis shifts across
Lake Erie and into nrn NY late this afternoon into this evening,
with moderately strong 700-500mb height falls across the North
Country this afternoon. Overall, no significant changes from
earlier thinking in terms of instability/shear parameter space and
setup. Surface to 6km bulk shear values increase to 30-40kts from
west to east during the mid-late aftn hours, supporting organized
and persistent updrafts. CAPE is a bit more marginal; while we
should see steeper low-level lapse rates set up with the
sunshine, instability will be limited to 1000 to 1200 J/kg of
SBCAPE at best due to surface dewpoints only expected in the 50s
(currently 76/51 at BTV at 1330Z). There is a warm front/dewpoint
bndry vcnty of NYC, with low 70s dewpoints south of the front.
Will see a better moisture surge late in the day as southerly
925-850mb flow increases to 25-35kts. However, it appears much of
that surge will be coincident with ongoing storms, perhaps
enhancing rainfall rates but not aiding in CAPE for the pre-storm
environment. Thus, CAPE values peaking around 1000 J/kg appear on
track. Main threat should be straight line winds with embedded bow
echoes, especially given relatively low sub-cloud RH values and
potential for sub- cloud evaporation. Expect ongoing rain band to
gradually become more convective in minimal CINH environment
across nrn NY late this morning into early this afternoon, with
perhaps a few rotating storms in advance of the line moving newd
from central/e-central NY into the srn Champlain Valley or
s-central VT for the mid-late afternoon hrs. Mainly linear
convective bands should sweep across central/ern VT late afternoon
into the early evening, consistent with HRRR, BTV-4/6 and the NAM
ARW/NMM runs. Have maintained enhanced wording for gusty winds,
heavy rain and small hail in the Wx grids, with highest PoPs in
the 20-03z period (90-100%). Storms should pass into NH by
midnight, with residual slight chance PoPs west to east following
westerly wind shift and frontal passage.

Looking at highs today in the upper 70s to lower 80s, and around
83F at BTV. Lows tonight mainly in the 50s with lowest low temps
in NY and on the warmer end of that range across VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 429 AM EDT Friday...Saturday becomes our typical post
frontal regime with the upper low settling in over the area with
lowering heights, residual low level moisture and west to
northwest upslope flow allowing for showers, mainly across the
northern portion of the area closer to the upper low centered over
Quebec. It will be cool and breezy as well with highs only around
70 and northwest winds 15-25 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 429 AM EDT Friday...Daytime showers end and turning dry for
any firework displays sunday night.

Monday(4th) will be dry and seasonably warm. Late morning
temperatures in the 60s/70s will be ideal for any parades.

Broad ridge over the central US sets up for the rest of the week
with westerly flow and building heights thus warming trend through
the week and dry. Late week there are slight differences in the
models on a potential disturbance in the wnw flow but for now...warm
and dry. Dewpoints/moisture seem manageable until late week when
surface high slides east allowing southwest flow and greater
humidity with perhaps another northern stream upper low and trough
for stormy next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Through 12Z Saturday...VFR through the morning hours, though
focus shifts the afternoon and evening with strong to potential
severe thunderstorms. Showers and strong storms starting around
18-21z as a cold front nears and eventually sweeps across the
area. Frequent lightning, gusty winds capable of localized
turbulence, at least small hail and heavy downpours capable of
brief IFR visibility restrictions are all possibilities in the
strongest cells. Maintained MVFR +SHRA group in the TAFs to
reflect when the period of greatest strong thunderstorm threat
would be. Later TAFs issuances can better define specific
timing/impact. Cold front exits into NH by 06z with dissipating
showers and a west wind shift. Will need to watch for possible
MVFR ceilings after 06z, particularly for the NY TAF sites.

Outlook 12Z Saturday through Tuesday...

12Z Saturday through 12z Sunday...Generally VFR, though daytime
VFR/MVFR visibility showers as an upper level disturbance passes
to our north. Gusty northwest winds of 25-30 knots likely to be
biggest impact on aviation, strongest during the afternoon hours.

12Z Sunday through Tuesday...VFR under high pressure during the
day. Possible overnight IFR to VLIFR fog at SLK and MPV each
evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 429 AM Friday...We continue to monitor potential for
localized heavy rainfall in strong to severe thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Strong QG forcing should help produce a
widespread rain for the area. Precipitable water values increase
during the afternoon and evening to around 1.3 to 1.5", moderately
high but again not excessive. The progressive nature of the mid-
level trough and storm motions should keep cells/lines moving, but
NEly Corfidi vectors of 10-15 kts supports potential for some
backbuilding. Will need to monitor convective evolution today for
this potential. Flash flood guidance still is rather high (3hr
values mainly 2-3"), but areas that will need to monitor for
heavy rainfall capable of small areas of flash flooding are in
Franklin and western Clinton Counties in NY and Orleans, Caledonia
and Essex Counties in VT given the flash flooding that occurred in
these areas early in the week. Urbanized areas and mountainous
terrain are common trouble spots as well. Main-stem river flooding
is not anticipated.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 950 AM Friday...Those boating on Lake Champlain today
should be aware of the potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms near the Lake during the mid-late afternoon and
evening hours. These thunderstorms will be capable of lightning,
small hail and gusty winds creating choppy waves and dangerous
boating conditions. A Lake Thunderstorm Advisory may become
necessary this afternoon as storms potentially develop/move toward
Lake Champlain. Stay alert and be prepared to seek safe harbor as
anticipated thunderstorms move from west to east this afternoon.

Saturday will feature gusty northwest winds, likely in the 15 to
25 knot range.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Loconto
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Loconto
HYDROLOGY...Banacos/Loconto
MARINE...Loconto/Banacos




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011119
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
719 AM EDT Fri Jul 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Increasingly unsettled weather today as a upper level disturbance
and cold front spark heavy showers and strong to severe
thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight. Storms will be capable
of gusty winds, small hailstones and localized heavy rainfall.
Showers and thunderstorms move eastward by midnight tonight.
Breezy conditions, cooler temperatures and chances for showers start
the Independence Day Weekend Saturday. Mostly sunny skies and dry
conditions should lead to good conditions for outdoor holiday
plans Sunday and on Independence Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 718 AM EDT Friday...No significant changes made to the
forecast. With this update, I`ve just accounted for current
observations in the forecast grids. Strong sunshine underway this
morning, but watching deck of mid-level cloudiness across western
PA/NY move pretty quickly eastward and will begin to overspread
our western zones arond noon. Steadier showers and embedded
thunder associated with cold front extends from near Toronto ON
southward to Cleveland OH. Prospects for strong to severe
thunderstorms today remains on track after reviewing some of the
more recent HRRR output. Highs should top out in the 70s to low
80s.

Previous near-term discussion issued at 429 AM follows...

Forecast remains on track toward an active Friday afternoon and
evening featuring strong to severe thunderstorms capable of gusty
winds, small hail and localized heavy rainfall posing some
hydrologic concerns as well.

Generally clear skies continue this morning under weakening
surface ridge, with 2-m temps running in the 50s to low 60s and
dewpoints in the upper 40s to mid 50s. However starting to see
mid-level height falls ahead of a neutrally-tilted 500 mb
shortwave trough with axis extending along the eastern shore of
Lake MI, with an associated cold front from the northern corner
of IN/OH into the lower Ohio Valley. Expect to see at least
mostly clear to partly sunny skies this morning, gradually filling
in by this afternoon from the southwest. Stage will then be set
for developing thunderstorms.

Overall, no significant changes noted from earlier thinking in
terms of instability/shear parameter space and setup. While we
should see steeper low-level lapse rates set up with the sunshine,
instabiilty will be limited to 1000 to 1300 J/kg of SBCAPE at best
due to surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Dewpoints
only start to climb in the few hours ahead of developing storms,
as southeast low-level winds help tap into reservoir of mid/upper
60s dewpoints over the mid-Atlantic states. In terms of wind
fields and vertical shear, 500mb trough axis becomes negatively
tilted and we should then start to see an increase in mid-level
winds by mid afternoon into the evening, leading to southwesterly
0-6km shear vectors increasing into the 30-35 knot range by early
evening. Also noting that the sfc-1km shear is around 20 knots. So
CAPE and shear at least support stronger storms but will be aided
by forcing for ascent owing to the negative-tilt mid-level trough
and diffluent nature to the mid/upper flow. Nearly all convection-
allowing models (HRRR, BTV-4/6 and the ARW/NMM) show initial
storms developing in the central Adirondacks/Mohawk Valley region
of NY by around 17-18z and move northeast and merge into
clusters/small- scale bowing lines late this aftn into the evening
across the North Country. Think we end up seeing several strong to
a few severe storms late afternoon and evening, capable of gusty
winds (given DCAPEs of 1000 J/kg) and small hail (WBZ heights are
around 10 kft). See the Hydrology section for more details on the
hydro aspects, which will need to be carefully monitored even
though storms should be moving along. Have maintained enhanced
wording for gusty winds, heavy rain and small hail in the Wx
grids, with highest PoPs in the 20-03z period. Storms should pass
into NH by midnight, with residual slight chance PoPs west to
east.

Looking at highs today in the 70s to lower 80s, with lows in the
50s with lowest low temps in NY and on the warmer end of that
range across VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 429 AM EDT Friday...Saturday becomes our typical post
frontal regime with the upper low settling in over the area with
lowering heights, residual low level moisture and west to
northwest upslope flow allowing for showers, mainly across the
northern portion of the area closer to the upper low centered over
Quebec. It will be cool and breezy as well with highs only around
70 and northwest winds 15-25 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 429 AM EDT Friday...Daytime showers end and turning dry for
any firework displays sunday night.

Monday(4th) will be dry and seasonably warm. Late morning
temperatures in the 60s/70s will be ideal for any parades.

Broad ridge over the central US sets up for the rest of the week
with westerly flow and building heights thus warming trend through
the week and dry. Late week there are slight differences in the
models on a potential disturbance in the wnw flow but for now...warm
and dry. Dewpoints/moisture seem manageable until late week when
surface high slides east allowing southwest flow and greater
humidity with perhaps another northern stream upper low and trough
for stormy next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Through 12Z Saturday...VFR through the morning hours, though
focus shifts the afternoon and evening with strong to potential
severe thunderstorms. Showers and strong storms starting around
18-21z as a cold front nears and eventually sweeps across the
area. Frequent lightning, gusty winds capable of localized
turbulence, at least small hail and heavy downpours capable of
brief IFR visiblility restrictions are all possibilities in the
strongest cells. Maintained MVFR +SHRA group in the TAFs to
reflect when the period of greatest strong thunderstorm threat
would be. Later TAFs issuances can better define specific
timing/impact. Cold front exits into NH by 06z with dissipating
showers and a west wind shift. Will need to watch for possible
MVFR ceilings after 06z, particularly for the NY TAF sites.

Outlook 12Z Saturday through Tuesday...

12Z Saturday through 12z Sunday...Generally VFR, though daytime
VFR/MVFR visibility showers as an upper level disturbance passes
to our north. Gusty northwest winds of 25-30 knots likely to be
biggest impact on aviation, strongest during the afternoon hours.

12Z Sunday through Tuesday...VFR under high pressure during the
day. Possible overnight IFR to VLIFR fog at SLK and MPV each
evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 429 AM Friday...We continue to monitor potential for
localized heavy rainfall in strong to severe thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Strong QG forcing should help produce a
widespread rain for the area. Precipitable water values increase
during the afternoon and evening to around 1.3 to 1.5", moderately
high but again not excessive. The progressive nature of the mid-
level trough and storm motions should keep cells/lines moving, but
NEly Corfidi vectors of 10-15 kts supports potential for some
backbuilding. Will need to monitor convective evolution today for
this potential. Flash flood guidance still is rather high, but
areas that will need to monitor for heavy rainfall capable of
small areas of flash flooding are in Franklin and western Clinton
Counties in NY and Orleans, Caledonia and Essex Counties in VT
given the flash flooding that occurred in these areas early in the
week. Urbanized areas and mountainous terrain are common trouble
spots as well. Main-stem river flooding is not anticipated.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 429 AM Friday...Those boating on Lake Champlain today
should be aware of the potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms near the Lake during the afternoon and evening
hours. Storms will be capable of lightning, small hail and gusty
winds creating choppy waves. A Lake Thunderstorm Advisory may
become necessary today as storms potentially develop/move toward
Lake Champlain. Be prepared to seek safe harbor if threatening
weather approaches today.

Saturday will feature gusty northwest winds, likely in the 15 to
25 knot range.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Loconto
HYDROLOGY...Banacos/Loconto
MARINE...Loconto




000
FXUS61 KALY 011041
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
641 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
After a dry morning, a frontal boundary will bring the
chance for some showers and thunderstorms to the region this
afternoon into the evening. Some of the thunderstorms may contain
gusty winds or hail. Behind the front, it will be dry and less humid
over the holiday weekend with continued seasonable temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 631 AM EDT...A potent upper level shortwave is currently
located over the Great Lakes, with a surface cold front in place
over southeastern Michigan and southern Ontario and headed
eastward. At the current time, skies are currently partly clear
over the region, with just some patches of mid and high level
clouds over the area.

During the morning hours, skies will be partly sunny with a light
southerly wind. Some clouds will continue to increase from west to
east by the late morning. The 09z 3km HRRR shows dry weather
remaining in place through noon, with any showers/t-storms still
well upstream of the region over western New York. With the sunny
skies and southerly winds advecting moisture into the region, the
atmosphere will become unstable. Model projected CAPE values look
to reach around 1000 J/kg by this afternoon, with surface
dewpoints rising into the low to middle 60s, especially for
southern parts of the Hudson Valley.

By this afternoon, the shortwave trough and surface cold front
will be getting closer to the area, and some showers and
thunderstorms will start spreading into the region from the west.
By the afternoon hours, 0-6 km bulk shear will be around 30 to 40
kts and mid level lapse rates will be around 6 deg C/km. Although
these numbers aren`t overwhelming, they should be enough for some
storms to become strong to severe, with damaging winds being the
main threat. SPC continues to place much of the region in a Slight
Risk for severe t-storms and we will continue to highlight gusty
winds and hail as a threat within our products. Many of the HIRES
models (including the HRRRx and WRF) all suggest that 20z-00z
would be the main threat time for t-storms (including any
potential strong to severe t-storms) to move across our area.

Before clouds/precip move into the region this afternoon, temps
should warm up into the upper 70s to low 80s in most areas. The
combination of seasonably warm temperatures and muggy levels of
humidity will make it feel somewhat sticky out there (certainly
not as bad as it could be, but considering since there have not been
very many humid days this summer, it may be noticeable).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Some showers/t-storms may linger into the evening, but should be
ending during the overnight hours as the cold front crosses the
region from west to east.

Humidity levels will start to fall with dewpoints dropping into
the 50s for Saturday. With the upper level trough passing by to
the north, there could be a pop-up instability rain shower for the
western or central Adirondacks on Saturday, but most areas look
to remain dry with just a partly to mostly sunny sky. Highs will
mainly be in the upper 60s to upper 70s across the area. In
addition, a westerly breeze will be gusty during the afternoon
hours as well.

Surface high pressure will be building into the region from the
southwest for Saturday night into Sunday. This will keep the dry
weather in place. Overnight lows on Sat night will be in the 50s
(some upper 40s over the highest terrain). Highs on Sunday will be
a little warmer than Saturday as temps aloft start to warm back up
with the upper trough finally moving away. Highs will be in the
upper 70s to low 80s for valley areas with a mostly sunny sky. Dry
weather will continue right into Sun night with clear skies and
lows in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Expecting fair and dry weather through at least mid week as
broad ridging dominates. A front is forecast to be stalled
to our south across the mid Atlantic region and a wave of low
pressure is expected to move eastward along the boundary. Overall
guidance indicates rainfall should remain well to our south as the
wave moves of the mid Atlantic coast Tuesday. Guidance then
indicates the longwave pattern should flatten becoming nearly
zonal across the region as we head into the latter part of the
week. Have maintained slight chance pops for Thursday as there are
uncertainties to the position and movement of a upper level low
over Hudson Bay Canada and how it may influence/impact our weather.

Temperatures for Independence Day/Monday are expected to be
seasonably warm with highs mainly ranging from the mid 70s to mid
80s. As we head through the week each day should be a couple
degrees warmer across much of the forecast area each day with
highs in the 80s even across much of the higher terrain by
Thursday. Each day should also be a bit more humid which will be
more noticeably at night with warmer lows each night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure over the region will continue to weaken and shift
eastward this morning. A cold front and an upper level disturbance
will approach from the Great Lakes Region today crossing the local
area this evening. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will
increase as we head into and through the afternoon hours.

VFR conditions are expected through the morning hours into the
afternoon with cloud cover in the increase. Showers along with
scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid to late afternoon at
the TAF sites. MVFR conditions will accompany the storms with IFR
conditions expected at times. Have not include IFR in the TAF at
this time since not confidence on timing of occurrence. Conditions
are expected to improve during the evening hours as storms move
off to the east however MVFR conditions are expected to develop
by late at night due to visibility and/or ceilings.

Calm winds will become mainly southerly at 5 to 10 knots with gusts
develop by late morning/early afternoon up the Hudson River Valley.
Gusts up to 20 knots are expected. Winds will decreasing and shift
to the southwest in the evening as the cold front gets closer and
will shift to the west with the passage of the boundary.

Winds will be much stronger, and variable in direction in and near
any thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Saturday through Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH values will only fall to 50 to 60 percent today with showers
and thunderstorms possible this afternoon. South winds will be 10
to 15 mph today. These winds will switch to the west tonight
around 5 to 10 MPH, along with RH values returning to near 100
percent.

RH values will fall to 35 to 55 percent on Saturday afternoon.
West winds will be 10 to 20 mph, with a few higher gusts possible.
Dry weather is expected Saturday into Sunday.

RH values may be as low as 30 to 40 percent on Sunday afternoon and
west winds will be 10 to 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Dry weather has been a common theme this year, with many reporting
sites showing rainfall deficits of 3 to 7 inches below normal
levels. According to the USGS, streamflow levels are running below
normal over many parts of the region. The US Drought Monitor has
much of the region in either the D0 (Abnormally Dry) or D1
(Moderate Drought) categories.

An approaching cold front will bring widespread showers and
thunderstorms to the region this afternoon into this evening.
Localized rainfall totals of over an inch are possible, although
widespread rainfall amounts probably won`t be enough to make a big
dent in the rainfall deficits over the entire region. Despite the
dry conditions, there is always the potential for localized minor
flooding of urban or poor drainage areas if a heavy thunderstorm
rainfall occurs over a vulnerable area. However, widespread
flooding is not expected and river and stream levels will
generally only show minor rises from today`s rainfall or just hold
steady into the weekend. Dry weather will then return to the
region later tonight and be in place through at least early to mid next
week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis
HYDROLOGY...Frugis




000
FXUS61 KALY 011031
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
631 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
After a dry morning, a frontal boundary will bring the
chance for some showers and thunderstorms to the region this
afternoon into the evening. Some of the thunderstorms may contain
gusty winds or hail. Behind the front, it will be dry and less humid
over the holiday weekend with continued seasonable temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 631 AM EDT...A potent upper level shortwave is currently
located over the Great Lakes, with a surface cold front in place
over southeastern Michigan and southern Ontario and headed
eastward. At the current time, skies are currently partly clear
over the region, with just some patches of mid and high level
clouds over the area.

During the morning hours, skies will be partly sunny with a light
southerly wind. Some clouds will continue to increase from west to
east by the late morning. The 09z 3km HRRR shows dry weather
remaining in place through noon, with any showers/t-storms still
well upstream of the region over western New York. With the sunny
skies and southerly winds advecting moisture into the region, the
atmosphere will become unstable. Model projected CAPE values look
to reach around 1000 J/kg by this afternoon, with surface
dewpoints rising into the low to middle 60s, especially for
southern parts of the Hudson Valley.

By this afternoon, the shortwave trough and surface cold front
will be getting closer to the area, and some showers and
thunderstorms will start spreading into the region from the west.
By the afternoon hours, 0-6 km bulk shear will be around 30 to 40
kts and mid level lapse rates will be around 6 deg C/km. Although
these numbers aren`t overwhelming, they should be enough for some
storms to become strong to severe, with damaging winds being the
main threat. SPC continues to place much of the region in a Slight
Risk for severe t-storms and we will continue to highlight gusty
winds and hail as a threat within our products. Many of the HIRES
models (including the HRRRx and WRF) all suggest that 20z-00z
would be the main threat time for t-storms (including any
potential strong to severe t-storms) to move across our area.

Before clouds/precip move into the region this afternoon, temps
should warm up into the upper 70s to low 80s in most areas. The
combination of seasonably warm temperatures and muggy levels of
humidity will make it feel somewhat sticky out there (certainly
not as bad as it could be, but considering since there have not been
very many humid days this summer, it may be noticeable).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Some showers/t-storms may linger into the evening, but should be
ending during the overnight hours as the cold front crosses the
region from west to east.

Humidity levels will start to fall with dewpoints dropping into
the 50s for Saturday. With the upper level trough passing by to
the north, there could be a pop-up instability rain shower for the
western or central Adirondacks on Saturday, but most areas look
to remain dry with just a partly to mostly sunny sky. Highs will
mainly be in the upper 60s to upper 70s across the area. In
addition, a westerly breeze will be gusty during the afternoon
hours as well.

Surface high pressure will be building into the region from the
southwest for Saturday night into Sunday. This will keep the dry
weather in place. Overnight lows on Sat night will be in the 50s
(some upper 40s over the highest terrain). Highs on Sunday will be
a little warmer than Saturday as temps aloft start to warm back up
with the upper trough finally moving away. Highs will be in the
upper 70s to low 80s for valley areas with a mostly sunny sky. Dry
weather will continue right into Sun night with clear skies and
lows in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Expecting fair and dry weather through at least mid week as
broad ridging dominates. A front is forecast to be stalled
to our south across the mid Atlantic region and a wave of low
pressure is expected to move eastward along the boundary. Overall
guidance indicates rainfall should remain well to our south as the
wave moves of the mid Atlantic coast Tuesday. Guidance then
indicates the longwave pattern should flatten becoming nearly
zonal across the region as we head into the latter part of the
week. Have maintained slight chance pops for Thursday as there are
uncertainties to the position and movement of a upper level low
over Hudson Bay Canada and how it may influence/impact our weather.

Temperatures for Independence Day/Monday are expected to be
seasonably warm with highs mainly ranging from the mid 70s to mid
80s. As we head through the week each day should be a couple
degrees warmer across much of the forecast area each day with
highs in the 80s even across much of the higher terrain by
Thursday. Each day should also be a bit more humid which will be
more noticeably at night with warmer lows each night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure over the region will weaken and shift eastward this
morning. A cold front and an upper level disturbance will approach
from the Great Lakes Region today crossing the local area this evening.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase as we head into
and through the afternoon hours.

VFR conditions are expected through the morning hours into the afternoon
with cloud cover in the increase. Showers along with scattered
thunderstorms will develop by mid to late afternoon at the TAF sites.
MVFR conditions will accompany the storms with IFR conditions expected
at times. Have not include IFR in the TAF at this time since not
confidence on timing of occurrence. Conditions are expected to improve
during the evening hours as storms move off to the east.

Calm winds will become mainly southerly at 5 to 10 knots with gusts
develop by late morning/early afternoon up the Hudson River Valley.
Gusts up to 20 knots are expected. Winds will decreasing and shift to
the southwest in the evening as the cold front gets closer.

Winds will be much stronger, and variable in direction in and near
any thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Saturday through Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH values will only fall to 50 to 60 percent today with showers
and thunderstorms possible this afternoon. South winds will be 10
to 15 mph today. These winds will switch to the west tonight
around 5 to 10 MPH, along with RH values returning to near 100
percent.

RH values will fall to 35 to 55 percent on Saturday afternoon.
West winds will be 10 to 20 mph, with a few higher gusts possible.
Dry weather is expected Saturday into Sunday.

RH values may be as low as 30 to 40 percent on Sunday afternoon and
west winds will be 10 to 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Dry weather has been a common theme this year, with many reporting
sites showing rainfall deficits of 3 to 7 inches below normal
levels. According to the USGS, streamflow levels are running below
normal over many parts of the region. The US Drought Monitor has
much of the region in either the D0 (Abnormally Dry) or D1
(Moderate Drought) categories.

An approaching cold front will bring widespread showers and
thunderstorms to the region this afternoon into this evening.
Localized rainfall totals of over an inch are possible, although
widespread rainfall amounts probably won`t be enough to make a big
dent in the rainfall deficits over the entire region. Despite the
dry conditions, there is always the potential for localized minor
flooding of urban or poor drainage areas if a heavy thunderstorm
rainfall occurs over a vulnerable area. However, widespread
flooding is not expected and river and stream levels will
generally only show minor rises from today`s rainfall or just hold
steady into the weekend. Dry weather will then return to the
region later tonight and be in place through at least early to mid next
week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis
HYDROLOGY...Frugis




000
FXUS61 KALY 010907
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
507 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
After a dry morning, a frontal boundary will bring the
chance for some showers and thunderstorms to the region this
afternoon into the evening. Some of the thunderstorms may contain
gusty winds or hail. Behind the front, it will be dry and less humid
over the holiday weekend with continued seasonable temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 443 AM EDT...A potent upper level shortwave is currently
located over the Great Lakes, with a surface cold front in place
over Michigan and headed eastward. At the current time, skies are
currently mainly clear over the region, with just a few patches of
mid and high level clouds over the area.

During the morning hours, skies will be fairly clear with a light
southerly wind. The 07z 3km HRRR shows dry weather remaining in
place through noon, with any showers/t-storms still well upstream
of the region over western New York. With the sunny skies and
southerly winds advecting moisture into the region, the
atmosphere will become unstable. Model projected CAPE values look
to reach around 1000 J/kg by this afternoon, with surface
dewpoints rising into the low to middle 60s, especially for
southern parts of the Hudson Valley.

By this afternoon, the shortwave trough and surface cold front
will be getting closer to the area, and some showers and
thunderstorms will start spreading into the region from the west.
By the afternoon hours, 0-6 km bulk shear will be around 30 to 40
kts and mid level lapse rates will be around 6 deg C/km. Although
these numbers aren`t overwhelming, they should be enough for some
storms to become strong to severe, with damaging winds being the
main threat. SPC continues to place much of the region in a Slight
Risk for severe t-storms and we will continue to highlight gusty
winds and hail as a threat within our products. Many of the HIRES
models (including the HRRRx and WRF) all suggest that 20z-00z
would be the main threat time for t-storms (including any
potential strong to severe t-storms) to move across our area.

Before clouds/precip move into the region this afternoon, temps
should warm up into the upper 70s to low 80s in most areas. The
combination of seasonably warm temperatures and muggy levels of
humidity will make it feel somewhat sticky out there (certainly
not as bad as it could be, but considering since there have not been
very many humid days this summer, it may be noticeable).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Some showers/t-storms may linger into the evening, but should be
ending during the overnight hours as the cold front crosses the
region from west to east.

Humidity levels will start to fall with dewpoints dropping into
the 50s for Saturday. With the upper level trough passing by to
the north, there could be a pop-up instability rain shower for the
western or central Adirondacks on Saturday, but most areas look
to remain dry with just a partly to mostly sunny sky. Highs will
mainly be in the upper 60s to upper 70s across the area. In
addition, a westerly breeze will be gusty during the afternoon
hours as well.

Surface high pressure will be building into the region from the
southwest for Saturday night into Sunday. This will keep the dry
weather in place. Overnight lows on Sat night will be in the 50s
(some upper 40s over the highest terrain). Highs on Sunday will be
a little warmer than Saturday as temps aloft start to warm back up
with the upper trough finally moving away. Highs will be in the
upper 70s to low 80s for valley areas with a mostly sunny sky. Dry
weather will continue right into Sun night with clear skies and
lows in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Expecting fair and dry weather through at least mid week as
broad ridging dominates. A front is forecast to be stalled
to our south across the mid Atlantic region and a wave of low
pressure is expected to move eastward along the boundary. Overall
guidance indicates rainfall should remain well to our south as the
wave moves of the mid Atlantic coast Tuesday. Guidance then
indicates the longwave pattern should flatten becoming nearly
zonal across the region as we head into the latter part of the
week. Have maintained slight chance pops for Thursday as there are
uncertainties to the position and movement of a upper level low
over Hudson Bay Canada and how it may influence/impact our weather.

Temperatures for Independence Day/Monday are expected to be
seasonably warm with highs mainly ranging from the mid 70s to mid
80s. As we head through the week each day should be a couple
degrees warmer across much of the forecast area each day with
highs in the 80s even across much of the higher terrain by
Thursday. Each day should also be a bit more humid which will be
more noticeably at night with warmer lows each night.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure over the region will weaken and shift eastward this
morning. A cold front and an upper level disturbance will approach
from the Great Lakes Region today crossing the local area this evening.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase as we head into
and through the afternoon hours.

VFR conditions are expected through the morning hours into the afternoon
with cloud cover in the increase. Showers along with scattered
thunderstorms will develop by mid to late afternoon at the TAF sites.
MVFR conditions will accompany the storms with IFR conditions expected
at times. Have not include IFR in the TAF at this time since not
confidence on timing of occurrence. Conditions are expected to improve
during the evening hours as storms move off to the east.

Calm winds will become mainly southerly at 5 to 10 knots with gusts
develop by late morning/early afternoon up the Hudson River Valley.
Gusts up to 20 knots are expected. Winds will decreasing and shift to
the southwest in the evening as the cold front gets closer.

Winds will be much stronger, and variable in direction in and near
any thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Saturday through Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH values will only fall to 50 to 60 percent today with showers
and thunderstorms possible this afternoon. South winds will be 10
to 15 mph today. These winds will switch to the west tonight
around 5 to 10 MPH, along with RH values returning to near 100
percent.

RH values will fall to 35 to 55 percent on Saturday afternoon.
West winds will be 10 to 20 mph, with a few higher gusts possible.
Dry weather is expected Saturday into Sunday.

RH values may be as low as 30 to 40 percent on Sunday afternoon and
west winds will be 10 to 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Dry weather has been a common theme this year, with many reporting
sites showing rainfall defecits of 3 to 7 inches below normal
levels. According to the USGS, streamflow levels are running below
normal over many parts of the region. The US Drought Monitor has
much of the region in either the D0 (Abnormally Dry) or D1
(Moderate Drought) categories.

An approaching cold front will bring widespread showers and
thunderstorms to the region this afternoon into this evening.
Localized rainfall totals of over an inch are possible, although
widespread rainfall amounts probably won`t be enough to make a big
dent in the rainfall defecits over the entire region. Despite the
dry conditions, there is always the potential for localized minor
flooding of urban or poor drainage areas if a heavy thunderstorm
rainfall occurs over a vulnerable area. However, widespread
flooding is not expected and river and stream levels will
generally only show minor rises from today`s rainfall or just hold
steady into the weekend. Dry weather will then return to the
region later tonight and be in place through at least early to mid next
week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis
HYDROLOGY...Frugis




000
FXUS61 KALY 010843
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
443 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
After a dry morning, a frontal boundary will bring the
chance for some showers and thunderstorms to the region this
afternoon into the evening. Some of the thunderstorms may contain
gusty winds or hail. Behind the front, it will be dry and less humid
over the holiday weekend with continued seasonable temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 443 AM EDT...A potent upper level shortwave is currently
located over the Great Lakes, with a surface cold front in place
over Michigan and headed eastward. At the current time, skies are
currently mainly clear over the region, with just a few patches of
mid and high level clouds over the area.

During the morning hours, skies will be fairly clear with a light
southerly wind. The 07z 3km HRRR shows dry weather remaining in
place through noon, with any showers/t-storms still well upstream
of the region over western New York. With the sunny skies and
southerly winds advecting moisture into the region, the
atmosphere will become unstable. Model projected CAPE values look
to reach around 1000 J/kg by this afternoon, with surface
dewpoints rising into the low to middle 60s, especially for
southern parts of the Hudson Valley.

By this afternoon, the shortwave trough and surface cold front
will be getting closer to the area, and some showers and
thunderstorms will start spreading into the region from the west.
By the afternoon hours, 0-6 km bulk shear will be around 30 to 40
kts and mid level lapse rates will be around 6 deg C/km. Although
these numbers aren`t overwhelming, they should be enough for some
storms to become strong to severe, with damaging winds being the
main threat. SPC continues to place much of the region in a Slight
Risk for severe t-storms and we will continue to highlight gusty
winds and hail as a threat within our products. Many of the HIRES
models (including the HRRRx and WRF) all suggest that 20z-00z
would be the main threat time for t-storms (including any
potential strong to severe t-storms) to move across our area.

Before clouds/precip move into the region this afternoon, temps
should warm up into the upper 70s to low 80s in most areas. The
combination of seasonably warm temperatures and muggy levels of
humidity will make it feel somewhat sticky out there (certainly
not as bad as it could be, but considering since there have not been
very many humid days this summer, it may be noticeable).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Some showers/t-storms may linger into the evening, but should be
ending during the overnight hours as the cold front crosses the
region from west to east.

Humidity levels will start to fall with dewpoints dropping into
the 50s for Saturday. With the upper level trough passing by to
the north, there could be a pop-up instability rain shower for the
western or central Adirondacks on Saturday, but most areas look
to remain dry with just a partly to mostly sunny sky. Highs will
mainly be in the upper 60s to upper 70s across the area. In
addition, a westerly breeze will be gusty during the afternoon
hours as well.

Surface high pressure will be building into the region from the
southwest for Saturday night into Sunday. This will keep the dry
weather in place. Overnight lows on Sat night will be in the 50s
(some upper 40s over the highest terrain). Highs on Sunday will be
a little warmer than Saturday as temps aloft start to warm back up
with the upper trough finally moving away. Highs will be in the
upper 70s to low 80s for valley areas with a mostly sunny sky. Dry
weather will continue right into Sun night with clear skies and
lows in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
coming soon.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure over the region will weaken and shift eastward this
morning. A cold front and an upper level disturbance will approach
from the Great Lakes Region today crossing the local area this evening.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase as we head into
and through the afternoon hours.

VFR conditions are expected through the morning hours into the afternoon
with cloud cover in the increase. Showers along with scattered
thunderstorms will develop by mid to late afternoon at the TAF sites.
MVFR conditions will accompany the storms with IFR conditions expected
at times. Have not include IFR in the TAF at this time since not
confidence on timing of occurrence. Conditions are expected to improve
during the evening hours as storms move off to the east.

Calm winds will become mainly southerly at 5 to 10 knots with gusts
develop by late morning/early afternoon up the Hudson River Valley.
Gusts up to 20 knots are expected. Winds will decreasing and shift to
the southwest in the evening as the cold front gets closer.

Winds will be much stronger, and variable in direction in and near
any thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Saturday through Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH values will only fall to 50 to 60 percent today with showers
and thunderstorms possible this afternoon. South winds will be 10
to 15 mph today. These winds will switch to the west tonight
around 5 to 10 MPH, along with RH values returning to near 100
percent.

RH values will fall to 35 to 55 percent on Saturday afternoon.
West winds will be 10 to 20 mph, with a few higher gusts possible.
Dry weather is expected Saturday into Sunday.

RH values may be as low as 30 to 40 percent on Sunday afternoon and
west winds will be 10 to 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Dry weather has been a common theme this year, with many reporting
sites showing rainfall defecits of 3 to 7 inches below normal
levels. According to the USGS, streamflow levels are running below
normal over many parts of the region. The US Drought Monitor has
much of the region in either the D0 (Abnormally Dry) or D1
(Moderate Drought) categories.

An approaching cold front will bring widespread showers and
thunderstorms to the region this afternoon into this evening.
Localized rainfall totals of over an inch are possible, although
widespread rainfall amounts probably won`t be enough to make a big
dent in the rainfall defecits over the entire region. Despite the
dry conditions, there is always the potential for localized minor
flooding of urban or poor drainage areas if a heavy thunderstorm
rainfall occurs over a vulnerable area. However, widespread
flooding is not expected and river and stream levels will
generally only show minor rises from today`s rainfall or just hold
steady into the weekend. Dry weather will then return to the
region later tonight and be in place through at least early to mid next
week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis
HYDROLOGY...Frugis




000
FXUS61 KALY 010843
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
443 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
After a dry morning, a frontal boundary will bring the
chance for some showers and thunderstorms to the region this
afternoon into the evening. Some of the thunderstorms may contain
gusty winds or hail. Behind the front, it will be dry and less humid
over the holiday weekend with continued seasonable temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 443 AM EDT...A potent upper level shortwave is currently
located over the Great Lakes, with a surface cold front in place
over Michigan and headed eastward. At the current time, skies are
currently mainly clear over the region, with just a few patches of
mid and high level clouds over the area.

During the morning hours, skies will be fairly clear with a light
southerly wind. The 07z 3km HRRR shows dry weather remaining in
place through noon, with any showers/t-storms still well upstream
of the region over western New York. With the sunny skies and
southerly winds advecting moisture into the region, the
atmosphere will become unstable. Model projected CAPE values look
to reach around 1000 J/kg by this afternoon, with surface
dewpoints rising into the low to middle 60s, especially for
southern parts of the Hudson Valley.

By this afternoon, the shortwave trough and surface cold front
will be getting closer to the area, and some showers and
thunderstorms will start spreading into the region from the west.
By the afternoon hours, 0-6 km bulk shear will be around 30 to 40
kts and mid level lapse rates will be around 6 deg C/km. Although
these numbers aren`t overwhelming, they should be enough for some
storms to become strong to severe, with damaging winds being the
main threat. SPC continues to place much of the region in a Slight
Risk for severe t-storms and we will continue to highlight gusty
winds and hail as a threat within our products. Many of the HIRES
models (including the HRRRx and WRF) all suggest that 20z-00z
would be the main threat time for t-storms (including any
potential strong to severe t-storms) to move across our area.

Before clouds/precip move into the region this afternoon, temps
should warm up into the upper 70s to low 80s in most areas. The
combination of seasonably warm temperatures and muggy levels of
humidity will make it feel somewhat sticky out there (certainly
not as bad as it could be, but considering since there have not been
very many humid days this summer, it may be noticeable).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Some showers/t-storms may linger into the evening, but should be
ending during the overnight hours as the cold front crosses the
region from west to east.

Humidity levels will start to fall with dewpoints dropping into
the 50s for Saturday. With the upper level trough passing by to
the north, there could be a pop-up instability rain shower for the
western or central Adirondacks on Saturday, but most areas look
to remain dry with just a partly to mostly sunny sky. Highs will
mainly be in the upper 60s to upper 70s across the area. In
addition, a westerly breeze will be gusty during the afternoon
hours as well.

Surface high pressure will be building into the region from the
southwest for Saturday night into Sunday. This will keep the dry
weather in place. Overnight lows on Sat night will be in the 50s
(some upper 40s over the highest terrain). Highs on Sunday will be
a little warmer than Saturday as temps aloft start to warm back up
with the upper trough finally moving away. Highs will be in the
upper 70s to low 80s for valley areas with a mostly sunny sky. Dry
weather will continue right into Sun night with clear skies and
lows in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
coming soon.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure over the region will weaken and shift eastward this
morning. A cold front and an upper level disturbance will approach
from the Great Lakes Region today crossing the local area this evening.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase as we head into
and through the afternoon hours.

VFR conditions are expected through the morning hours into the afternoon
with cloud cover in the increase. Showers along with scattered
thunderstorms will develop by mid to late afternoon at the TAF sites.
MVFR conditions will accompany the storms with IFR conditions expected
at times. Have not include IFR in the TAF at this time since not
confidence on timing of occurrence. Conditions are expected to improve
during the evening hours as storms move off to the east.

Calm winds will become mainly southerly at 5 to 10 knots with gusts
develop by late morning/early afternoon up the Hudson River Valley.
Gusts up to 20 knots are expected. Winds will decreasing and shift to
the southwest in the evening as the cold front gets closer.

Winds will be much stronger, and variable in direction in and near
any thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Saturday through Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH values will only fall to 50 to 60 percent today with showers
and thunderstorms possible this afternoon. South winds will be 10
to 15 mph today. These winds will switch to the west tonight
around 5 to 10 MPH, along with RH values returning to near 100
percent.

RH values will fall to 35 to 55 percent on Saturday afternoon.
West winds will be 10 to 20 mph, with a few higher gusts possible.
Dry weather is expected Saturday into Sunday.

RH values may be as low as 30 to 40 percent on Sunday afternoon and
west winds will be 10 to 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Dry weather has been a common theme this year, with many reporting
sites showing rainfall defecits of 3 to 7 inches below normal
levels. According to the USGS, streamflow levels are running below
normal over many parts of the region. The US Drought Monitor has
much of the region in either the D0 (Abnormally Dry) or D1
(Moderate Drought) categories.

An approaching cold front will bring widespread showers and
thunderstorms to the region this afternoon into this evening.
Localized rainfall totals of over an inch are possible, although
widespread rainfall amounts probably won`t be enough to make a big
dent in the rainfall defecits over the entire region. Despite the
dry conditions, there is always the potential for localized minor
flooding of urban or poor drainage areas if a heavy thunderstorm
rainfall occurs over a vulnerable area. However, widespread
flooding is not expected and river and stream levels will
generally only show minor rises from today`s rainfall or just hold
steady into the weekend. Dry weather will then return to the
region later tonight and be in place through at least early to mid next
week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis
HYDROLOGY...Frugis




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010830
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
430 AM EDT Fri Jul 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Increasingly unsettled weather today as a upper level disturbance
and cold front spark heavy showers and strong to severe
thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight. Storms will be capable
of gusty winds, small hailstones and localized heavy rainfall.
Showers and thunderstorms move eastward by midnight tonight.
Breezy conditions, cooler temperatures and chances for showers start
the Independence Day Weekend Saturday. Mostly sunny skies and dry
conditions should lead to good conditions for outdoor holiday
plans Sunday and on Independence Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 429 AM EDT Friday...Forecast remains on track toward an
active Friday afternoon and evening featuring strong to severe
thunderstorms capable of gusty winds, small hail and localized
heavy rainfall posing some hydrologic concerns as well.

Generally clear skies continue this morning under weakening
surface ridge, with 2-m temps running in the 50s to low 60s and
dewpoints in the upper 40s to mid 50s. However starting to see
mid-level height falls ahead of a neutrally-tilted 500 mb
shortwave trough with axis extending along the eastern shore of
Lake MI, with an associated cold front from the northern corner
of IN/OH into the lower Ohio Valley. Expect to see at least
mostly clear to partly sunny skies this morning, gradually filling
in by this afternoon from the southwest. Stage will then be set
for developing thunderstorms.

Overall, no significant changes noted from earlier thinking in
terms of instability/shear parameter space and setup. While we
should see steeper low-level lapse rates set up with the sunshine,
instabiilty will be limited to 1000 to 1300 J/kg of SBCAPE at best
due to surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Dewpoints
only start to climb in the few hours ahead of developing storms,
as southeast low-level winds help tap into reservoir of mid/upper
60s dewpoints over the mid-Atlantic states. In terms of wind
fields and vertical shear, 500mb trough axis becomes negatively
tilted and we should then start to see an increase in mid-level
winds by mid afternoon into the evening, leading to southwesterly
0-6km shear vectors increasing into the 30-35 knot range by early
evening. Also noting that the sfc-1km shear is around 20 knots. So
CAPE and shear at least support stronger storms but will be aided
by forcing for ascent owing to the negative-tilt mid-level trough
and diffluent nature to the mid/upper flow. Nearly all convection-
allowing models (HRRR, BTV-4/6 and the ARW/NMM) show initial
storms developing in the central Adirondacks/Mohawk Valley region
of NY by around 17-18z and move northeast and merge into
clusters/small- scale bowing lines late this aftn into the evening
across the North Country. Think we end up seeing several strong to
a few severe storms late afternoon and evening, capable of gusty
winds (given DCAPEs of 1000 J/kg) and small hail (WBZ heights are
around 10 kft). See the Hydrology section for more details on the
hydro aspects, which will need to be carefully monitored even
though storms should be moving along. Have maintained enhanced
wording for gusty winds, heavy rain and small hail in the Wx
grids, with highest PoPs in the 20-03z period. Storms should pass
into NH by midnight, with residual slight chance PoPs west to
east.

Looking at highs today in the 70s to lower 80s, with lows in the
50s with lowest low temps in NY and on the warmer end of that
range across VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 429 AM EDT Friday...Saturday becomes our typical post
frontal regime with the upper low settling in over the area with
lowering heights, residual low level moisture and west to
northwest upslope flow allowing for showers, mainly across the
northern portion of the area closer to the upper low centered over
Quebec. It will be cool and breezy as well with highs only around
70 and northwest winds 15-25 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 429 AM EDT Friday...Daytime showers end and turning dry for
any firework displays sunday night.

Monday(4th) will be dry and seasonably warm. Late morning
temperatures in the 60s/70s will be ideal for any parades.

Broad ridge over the central US sets up for the rest of the week
with westerly flow and building heights thus warming trend through
the week and dry. Late week there are slight differences in the
models on a potential disturbance in the wnw flow but for now...warm
and dry. Dewpoints/moisture seem manageable until late week when
surface high slides east allowing southwest flow and greater
humidity with perhaps another northern stream upper low and trough
for stormy next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Through 06Z Saturday...VFR SKC with a short period of LIFR
radiation fog at SLK and MPV, burning off by 12z. Winds generally
light, except at RUT where southeast winds 7-9 kts will prevail.

Focus then shifts to period of more active aviation weather
pertaining to strong to potential severe storms later Friday
afternoon and early evening. Until then, we should see VFR
ceilings gradually fill and lower starting around late morning,
with south winds increasing to 6-12 kts. Showers and strong
storms starting around 18z as a cold front nears and eventually
sweeps across the area. Gusty winds capable of localized
turbulence, at least small hail and heavy downpours capable of
brief IFR visiblility restrictions are all possibilities in the
strongest cells. Indicated an MVFR +SHRA group in the TAFs to
reflect when the period of greatest strong thunderstorm threat
would be. Front then clears 23-03z, though ceilings may begin to
lower to VFR/MVFR progressing toward 06z.

Outlook 06Z Saturday through Tuesday...

06Z Saturday through 12z Saturday...Areas of MVFR ceilings
possible (mainly SLK/MPV) with westerly wind shift following
frontal passage late Friday evening. Isold rain showers possible
during Friday night, diminishing toward daybreak Saturday.

12Z Saturday through 12z Sunday...Generally VFR, though daytime
VFR/MVFR visibility showers as an upper level disturbance passes
to our north. Gusty northwest winds of 25-30 knots likely to be
biggest impact on aviation, strongest during the afternoon hours.

12Z Sunday through Tuesday...VFR under high pressure during the
day. Possible overnight IFR to VLIFR fog at SLK and MPV each
evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 429 AM Friday...We continue to monitor potential for
localized heavy rainfall in strong to severe thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Strong QG forcing should help produce a
widespread rain for the area. Precipitable water values increase
during the afternoon and evening to around 1.3 to 1.5", moderately
high but again not excessive. The progressive nature of the mid-
level trough and storm motions should keep cells/lines moving, but
NEly Corfidi vectors of 10-15 kts supports potential for some
backbuilding. Will need to monitor convective evolution today for
this potential. Flash flood guidance still is rather high, but
areas that will need to monitor for heavy rainfall capable of
small areas of flash flooding are in Franklin and western Clinton
Counties in NY and Orleans, Caledonia and Essex Counties in VT
given the flash flooding that occurred in these areas early in the
week. Urbanized areas and mountainous terrain are common trouble
spots as well. Main-stem river flooding is not anticipated.


&&

.MARINE...
As of 429 AM Friday...Those boating on Lake Champlain today
should be aware of the potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms near the Lake during the afternoon and evening
hours. Storms will be capable of lightning, small hail and gusty
winds creating choppy waves. A Lake Thunderstorm Advisory may
become necessary today as storms potentially develop/move toward
Lake Champlain. Be prepared to seek safe harbor if threatening
weather approaches today.

Saturday will feature gusty northwest winds, likely in the 15 to
25 knot range.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Loconto
HYDROLOGY...Banacos/Loconto
MARINE...Loconto




000
FXUS61 KALY 010600
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
200 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
After a dry morning, a frontal boundary will bring the chance for
some showers and thunderstorms to the region this afternoon into
the evening. Some of the thunderstorms may contain gusty winds or
hail. Behind the front, it will be dry and less humid over the
holiday weekend with continued seasonable temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 200 AM EDT...A weak upper level disturbance was in the
process of moving across the region. Although this disturbance is
too weak to produce any precip, IR satellite imagery continues to
show some patches of mid and high level clouds over the region as
a result of this feature, mainly for Southern Vermont and the mid-
Hudson Valley. Sky cover will continue to vary overnight between
partly to mostly cloudy as these patches of cloud cover pass over
the region as the upper level disturbance heads eastward towards
New England.

Winds will be calm for the duration of the overnight hours. Overnight
lows will range between the mid 50s to mid 60s, with the mildest
readings in valley areas, especially from the Capital Region on
south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
In collaboration with the Storm Prediction Center and neighboring
forecast offices...a Slight Risk category has been added to most
of our region.

H2O vapor shows the main culprit diving southeast across the upper
Mississippi River Valley and western Great Lakes. A diffluent flow
was quite evident downstream from this feature as mid level jet
core was moving through the central plains and toward the Ohio
Valley. Meanwhile, dewpoint analysis reveals upstream where
parcels are expected to originate from (Mason-Dixon line through
the mid-Atlantic) where generally between 55-65F. So while overall
dynamics will be quite strong across the region as upper trough
becomes negatively tilted, good height falls with impressive low
level surface convergence through Friday afternoon, question will
be how much of this low level moisture advects north and how
quickly the cloud coverage advects in will ultimately dictate just
how unstable the atmosphere will get. Per the SWODY2 discussion,
an average dewpoint value into the lower 60s with highs generally
between 75-80F were utilized in modified soundings from the
NAM/GFS. Surface parcels suggest SBCAPES around 1000 J/KG, yet
shear profiles, helicity values and hodographs were quite moderate
to high. These profiles point toward a potential for a few
supercells given the turning with height and a sct-bkn line of
convection along the cold front. Timing of this cold front looks
to occur around 21Z (plus/minus 2 hours). We will add enhanced
wording to the forecast including the HWO.

In the wake of the frontal passage, rather brisk conditions Friday
night into Saturday with still the threat of some showers mainly
north of I90 into the terrain. Mesoscale models hint at some lake
induced clouds and perhaps a shower or two across the Adirondacks
from both the lake and closer proximity to the deeper cyclonic
flow aloft and cooler temperatures aloft. Otherwise, mixing layer
height suggest we tap into the 20-30kt range with channeling down
the Mohawk. Highs will range from the 60s across the Adirondacks
to around 80F for the mid-Hudson Valley into portions of
Litchfield County.

Saturday night into Sunday looks dry and pleasant with some clouds
from time to time as weak fast moving waves pass through the
northwest flow from time to time. Temperatures under increasing
July sunshine will moderate Sunday after a cool start between
45-55F to between 75-85F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Generally dry conditions are expected to continue through much of
the long term portion of the forecast, with best chances for any
rain remaining to our south. There will be an upper level impulse
tracking east from the OH Valley region toward the northern Mid
Atlantic coast late Monday into Tuesday, with most global models
suggesting any rainfall associated with this system remaining to our
south. There are some 12Z/30 GEFS members suggesting a slightly more
northward track, so will include slight chance pops for southern
areas on Tuesday.

Otherwise, generally fair and seasonable temperatures for Sunday-
Monday. It should be a bit breezy Sunday, with west/northwest winds
possibly gusting up to 20-25 mph at times in the afternoon.

Another impulse may track to our north by Thursday, possibly
triggering isolated showers/thunderstorms, particularly areas north
of I-90. Slight chance pops have been indicated in this area.

As for temperatures, expect daytime highs to reach the mid 70s to
lower 80s Sunday, and lower/mid 80s in valleys, and upper 70s across
higher elevations for Monday-Tuesday, assuming the system to our
south does not impact the region. As upper level heights build for
Wednesday-Thursday, expect even warmer temperatures, despite low to
moderate humidity levels, with late day maximum temperatures
reaching the mid/upper 80s in valleys, and lower 80s across higher
elevations.

Overnight low temperatures through the period will generally be in
the upper 50s to lower 60s, except for some lower/mid 50s across
portions of the western Adirondacks and higher elevations across
southern Vermont.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure over the region will weaken and shift eastward this
morning. A cold front and an upper level disturbance will approach
from the Great Lakes Region today crossing the local area this evening.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase as we head into
and through the afternoon hours.

VFR conditions are expected through the morning hours into the afternoon
with cloud cover in the increase. Showers along with scattered
thunderstorms will develop by mid to late afternoon at the TAF sites.
MVFR conditions will accompany the storms with IFR conditions expected
at times. Have not include IFR in the TAF at this time since not
confidence on timing of occurrence. Conditions are expected to improve
during the evening hours as storms move off to the east.

Calm winds will become mainly southerly at 5 to 10 knots with gusts
develop by late morning/early afternoon up the Hudson River Valley.
Gusts up to 20 knots are expected. Winds will decreasing and shift to
the southwest in the evening as the cold front gets closer.

Winds will be much stronger, and variable in direction in and near
any thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday to Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected for the first day of July
as a strong cold front moves across the region. Some of these
storms may be strong to severe. Breezy and cooler conditions are
expected to the start of the holiday weekend. Temperatures will
moderate for the remainder of the long holiday weekend along with
dry conditions.

Latest drought monitor places most of our region `Abnormally Dry`
with portions of the Catskills into `Moderate Drought`. This may
have implications with Fire Weather concerns if rainfall on Friday
is less than forecast.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread hydrological problems are not anticipated over the
next several days. Showers and thunderstorms, some containing
brief heavy rainfall, are expected to move across the region
Friday afternoon. At this time, due to low river levels, within
bank river rises are expected. Thereafter, an extended period of fair
weather is expected for the rest of the long holiday weekend into
early next week.

Latest drought monitor places most of our region `Abnormally Dry`
with portions of the Catskills into `Moderate Drought`.
Abnormally dry indicates dryness but not yet in drought.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010509
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
109 AM EDT Fri Jul 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control across the North Country this
evening and overnight with mainly clear skies and light winds. A
frontal system approaching from the Great Lakes region will bring
widespread showers with embedded thunderstorm activity Friday
afternoon into Friday evening. A few strong to severe storms are
possible with hail, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall. The
frontal system ushers in cooler air for Saturday, with high
temperatures only in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A few showers are
also possible across the Northern Mountains on Saturday.
Increasing sunshine and dry conditions are forecast for Sunday and
the Independence Day holiday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
As of 109 AM EDT Friday...Forecast remains in great shape, though
made some token adjustments to sky cover across southern VT
through next couple hours as infrared imagery is sampling a
scattered deck of mid- level cloudiness that is quickly moving
eastward into NH. Aside from that, I`ve just blended in current
observations to the going forecast. Still expect there to be some
areas of patchy fog in the favored river valleys. It will burn off
quickly by morning to generally clear skies, gradually filling in
as high clouds spread northeast later in the morning. Lows in the
40s to mid/upper 50s look on track.

Prior discussion from 224 PM EDT Thursday...
Main focus during the near-term period is potential strong to
severe thunderstorms and localized heavy rainfall for Friday
afternoon into Friday evening.

Tonight: Conditions will remain tranquil in the meantime with
ridge surface and aloft in place this evening and through much of
the overnight. Some flat fair weather cumulus clouds dotting the
higher terrain will dissipate with onset of diurnal cooling cycle
this evening, setting up clear skies and good radiational cooling
overnight. Winds are generally light through the overnight, but
will see light S-SE flow develop from the Champlain Valley wwd
toward daybreak as surface low moves ewd across lower Michigan,
and high pressure shifts east of New England. With generally light
winds, should see some patchy fog develop after 04-05Z in the
deeper valleys within the northern Adirondack region and
central/ern VT. That said, increase in 925mb flow to near 15kts
toward daybreak may cause some increased low-level mixing and
preclude fog from becoming dense or very widespread. Overnight
lows generally in the low-mid 50s, except locally in the upr 50s
near Lake Champlain with developing south winds...and also in the
mid-upr 40s in the nrn Adirondacks given current dewpoint
readings.

Friday: Vigorous mid-level trough across lower Michigan at 12Z
will shift enewd with increasingly cyclonic flow and height falls
across nrn NY into VT during the afternoon and early evening
hours. Low-mid level wind fields become moderately strong with sfc
to 6km bulk shear reaching 30kts by 18Z and around 35kts at 21Z.
Strong differential PVA moving into nrn NY coincides with best
insolational heating, which should aid in low-level lapse rates
and convective initiation. Given strength of forcing for ascent,
not much question on development of showers and embedded tstms
across nrn NY and s-central VT beginning around 18Z, and then
spreading ENEWD across the Champlain valley mid-late afternoon,
and central/ern VT late afternoon into the evening hours. Have
included PoPs 80-90% during the peak heating hrs.

Primary limiting factor for widespread severe wx will be limited
moisture return. Current 2-m dewpoints generally upr 40s to lower
50s across the region, and expected to rise into the upr 50s by
early after Friday. These moisture values combined with high temps
in the upper 70s to lower 80s will contribute to fairly modest
SBCAPE peaking around 1000 J/kg. That said, believe incipient
updrafts can make use of excellent low-level hodograph structure
(0-1km SRH around 200 m2/s2 at BTV per NAM-12km) and favorable
deep- layer shear for a few rotating storms, which can augment
relatively low CAPE profiles. As such, will carry enhanced wording
at this time with hail and gusty winds mentioned in the forecast.
Depending on overall convective evolution, will need to watch for
any training cells across the nrn Adirondacks and n-central/nern
VT where soils remain moist from rainfall past 48-72 hrs (see
hydro section below for additional details). Overall QPF amts
generally 0.50 to 0.75", but could see some locally higher
footprints with any training thunderstorms. 3-hr FFG generally
2-3" attm.

Friday night: 700-500mb shortwave trough acquires negative tilt
across VT Friday evening, with going strong convective activity
exiting across ern half of VT between 00-03Z. Thereafter, surface
frontal passage brings westerly wind shift and lingering
clouds/isold showers overnight. Low temperatures generally in the
low-mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /1 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 328 PM EDT Thursday...Saturday and Saturday night we`ll see
our typical post frontal regime with the aforementioned upper low
settling up over the area post frontal passage. The morning should
begin dry with a mid-level dry slot pushing through, but by the
afternoon additional shortwave energy moving through the flow
aloft combined with residual low level moisture and west/northwest
upslope flow will allow for some scattered showers to develop,
mainly across northern portions of the area. With this loss of
insolational heating, any showers should dissipate though by the
late evening with clearing skies developing Saturday night as high
pressure edges into the region. Under the influence of the upper
low, temps through the period will be on the cool side of normal
for early July, with highs ranging only from the mid 60s to low
70s, and lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 328 PM EDT Thursday...Long term period highlight will
feature another prolonged dry stretch along with temperatures
moderating back towards seasonal normals. Behind the departing
trough for the early part of the weekend, surface high pressure
will build into the region for Sunday with building heights aloft
going into the early to middle part of next week. The result will
be mainly dry conditions, partly sunny/clear skies and pleasant
humidity. Highs will generally range from the mid 70s to low 80s,
and lows mainly in the 50s mountains to low 60s valleys.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Through 06Z Saturday...VFR SKC with a short period of LIFR
radiation fog at SLK and MPV, burning off by 12z. Winds generally
light, except at RUT where southeast winds 7-9 kts will prevail.

Focus then shifts to period of more active aviation weather
pertaining to strong to potential severe storms later Friday
afternoon and early evening. Until then, we should see VFR
ceilings gradually fill and lower starting around late morning,
with south winds increasing to 6-12 kts. Showers and strong
storms starting around 18z as a cold front nears and eventually
sweeps across the area. Gusty winds capable of localized
turbulence, at least small hail and heavy downpours capable of
brief IFR visiblility restrictions are all possibilities in the
strongest cells. Indicated an MVFR +SHRA group in the TAFs to
reflect when the period of greatest strong thunderstorm threat
would be. Front then clears 23-03z, though ceilings may begin to
lower to VFR/MVFR progressing toward 06z.

Outlook 06Z Saturday through Tuesday...

06Z Saturday through 12z Saturday...Areas of MVFR ceilings
possible (mainly SLK/MPV) with westerly wind shift following
frontal passage late Friday evening. Isold rain showers possible
during Friday night, diminishing toward daybreak Saturday.

12Z Saturday through 12z Sunday...Generally VFR, though daytime
VFR/MVFR visibility showers as an upper level disturbance passes
to our north. Gusty northwest winds of 25-30 knots likely to be
biggest impact on aviation, strongest during the afternoon hours.

12Z Sunday through Tuesday...VFR under high pressure during the
day. Possible overnight IFR to VLIFR fog at SLK and MPV each
evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 140 PM Thursday...Will be monitoring the potential for
heavy downpours Friday afternoon and evening associated with the
anticipated widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms. Strong
QG dynamics (700-500mb vort axis moving SW to NE across the
region) and associated surface front will move into environment
across the North Country with MLCAPE values generally 500-1000
J/kg, and moderate PW axis of 1.3 to 1.5" during the mid afternoon
through early evening hours. The mid-level trough is progressive
in moderately strong swly flow, which may limit duration of
heavier downpours in most locations. However, some indication of
backbuilding potential of storms with MBE vectors NE at 5-10kts
per NAM model soundings across central/nrn VT. So, will need to
monitor for training cells as convective evolution occurs. Areas
such as Franklin and western parts of Clinton County in NY as well
as the northern VT counties of Orleans, Caledonia and Essex
Counties would be slightly more vulnerable to flash flooding,
given antecedent saturated soil conditions from rainfall past 2-3
days. Main stem river flooding is not currently expected.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...JMG/Loconto
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Loconto
HYDROLOGY...Banacos/Loconto




000
FXUS61 KALY 010221
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1021 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected for the first day of July
as a strong cold front moves across the region. Some of these
storms may be strong to severe. Breezy and cooler conditions are
expected to the start of the holiday weekend. Temperatures will
moderate for the remainder of the long holiday weekend along with
dry conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 1015 PM EDT, a weakening upper level shortwave traversing
northeast through the region was producing patchy high clouds.
This wave should lift N/E and weaken further overnight, allowing
for the high clouds to thin out.

However, another surge of high and mid level clouds was noted
upstream across the upper Ohio Valley and western PA. These clouds
should overspread the region well after midnight. So the general
theme will be partly cloudy skies overnight, with mainly high
clouds prevailing.

Temperatures should fall into the mid 50s to lower 60s toward
daybreak, although locally cooler temperatures, perhaps in the
upper 40s, will be possible across portions of the western
Adirondacks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
In collaboration with the Storm Prediction Center and neighboring
forecast offices...a Slight Risk category has been added to most
of our region.

H2O vapor shows the main culprit diving southeast across the upper
Mississippi River Valley and western Great Lakes. A diffluent flow
was quite evident downstream from this feature as mid level jet
core was moving through the central plains and toward the Ohio
Valley. Meanwhile, dewpoint analysis reveals upstream where
parcels are expected to originate from (Mason-Dixon line through
the mid-Atlantic) where generally between 55-65F. So while overall
dynamics will be quite strong across the region as upper trough
becomes negatively tilted, good height falls with impressive low
level surface convergence through Friday afternoon, question will
be how much of this low level moisture advects north and how
quickly the cloud coverage advects in will ultimately dictate just
how unstable the atmosphere will get. Per the SWODY2 discussion,
an average dewpoint value into the lower 60s with highs generally
between 75-80F were utilized in modified soundings from the
NAM/GFS. Surface parcels suggest SBCAPES around 1000 J/KG, yet
shear profiles, helicity values and hodographs were quite moderate
to high. These profiles point toward a potential for a few
supercells given the turning with height and a sct-bkn line of
convection along the cold front. Timing of this cold front looks
to occur around 21Z (plus/minus 2 hours). We will add enhanced
wording to the forecast including the HWO.

In the wake of the frontal passage, rather brisk conditions Friday
night into Saturday with still the threat of some showers mainly
north of I90 into the terrain. Mesoscale models hint at some lake
induced clouds and perhaps a shower or two across the Adirondacks
from both the lake and closer proximity to the deeper cyclonic
flow aloft and cooler temperatures aloft. Otherwise, mixing layer
height suggest we tap into the 20-30kt range with channeling down
the Mohawk. Highs will range from the 60s across the Adirondacks
to around 80F for the mid-Hudson Valley into portions of
Litchfield County.

Saturday night into Sunday looks dry and pleasant with some clouds
from time to time as weak fast moving waves pass through the
northwest flow from time to time. Temperatures under increasing
July sunshine will moderate Sunday after a cool start between
45-55F to between 75-85F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Generally dry conditions are expected to continue through much of
the long term portion of the forecast, with best chances for any
rain remaining to our south. There will be an upper level impulse
tracking east from the OH Valley region toward the northern Mid
Atlantic coast late Monday into Tuesday, with most global models
suggesting any rainfall associated with this system remaining to our
south. There are some 12Z/30 GEFS members suggesting a slightly more
northward track, so will include slight chance pops for southern
areas on Tuesday.

Otherwise, generally fair and seasonable temperatures for Sunday-
Monday. It should be a bit breezy Sunday, with west/northwest winds
possibly gusting up to 20-25 mph at times in the afternoon.

Another impulse may track to our north by Thursday, possibly
triggering isolated showers/thunderstorms, particularly areas north
of I-90. Slight chance pops have been indicated in this area.

As for temperatures, expect daytime highs to reach the mid 70s to
lower 80s Sunday, and lower/mid 80s in valleys, and upper 70s across
higher elevations for Monday-Tuesday, assuming the system to our
south does not impact the region. As upper level heights build for
Wednesday-Thursday, expect even warmer temperatures, despite low to
moderate humidity levels, with late day maximum temperatures
reaching the mid/upper 80s in valleys, and lower 80s across higher
elevations.

Overnight low temperatures through the period will generally be in
the upper 50s to lower 60s, except for some lower/mid 50s across
portions of the western Adirondacks and higher elevations across
southern Vermont.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will be over the northeast states tonight. A cold
front and an upper level disturbance will approach from the
eastern Great Lakes Region and southeast Canada late tomorrow
morning into the afternoon with scattered showers and
thunderstorms increasing ahead of the front.

Mainly VFR conditions are expected overnight. However, there is a
slight chance of some patchy ground fog at KGFL and KPSF between
roughly 05Z-10Z/Fri. This could lead to intermittent MVFR/IFR
conditions.

VFR conditions should be prevalent for Friday morning. Then,
showers and embedded thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon.
This could lead to at least a few periods of MVFR/IFR
visibilities/ceilings...mainly after 20Z/Fri.

West winds early this evening at 5-10 KT will become
light/variable to calm overnight. On Friday, winds will become
mainly south at 5-10 KT. It may be stronger at KALB, with some
gusts up to 15-20 KT in the late morning and afternoon hours.

Winds will be much stronger, and variable in direction in and near
any thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday to Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected for the first day of July
as a strong cold front moves across the region. Some of these
storms may be strong to severe. Breezy and cooler conditions are
expected to the start of the holiday weekend. Temperatures will
moderate for the remainder of the long holiday weekend along with
dry conditions.

Latest drought monitor places most of our region `Abnormally Dry`
with portions of the Catskills into `Moderate Drought`. This may
have implications with Fire Weather concerns if rainfall on Friday
is less than forecast.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread hydrological problems are not anticipated over the
next several days. Showers and thunderstorms, some containing
brief heavy rainfall, are expected to move across the region
Friday afternoon. At this time, due to low river levels, within
bank river rises are expected. Thereafter, an extended period of fair
weather is expected for the rest of the long holiday weekend into
early next week.

Latest drought monitor places most of our region `Abnormally Dry`
with portions of the Catskills into `Moderate Drought`.
Abnormally dry indicates dryness but not yet in drought.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 302356
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
756 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control across the North Country this
evening and overnight with mainly clear skies and light winds. A
frontal system approaching from the Great Lakes region will bring
widespread showers with embedded thunderstorm activity Friday
afternoon into Friday evening. A few strong to severe storms are
possible with hail, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall. The
frontal system ushers in cooler air for Saturday, with high
temperatures only in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A few showers are
also possible across the Northern Mountains on Saturday.
Increasing sunshine and dry conditions are forecast for Sunday and
the Independence Day holiday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 756 PM EDT Thursday...Beautiful early summer weather
expected for tonight with clear skies, light winds and seasonable
temperatures. Other than some nominal tweaks to winds with latest
LAMP output the forecast remains largely unchanged. Held onto some
patchy fog in favored locales, though this should be fairly
limited in duration and areal coverage given the nocturnal period
is near its yearly minimum. Have a great evening.

Prior discussion from 224 PM EDT Thursday...
Main focus during the near-term period is potential strong to
severe thunderstorms and localized heavy rainfall for Friday
afternoon into Friday evening.

Tonight: Conditions will remain tranquil in the meantime with
ridge surface and aloft in place this evening and through much of
the overnight. Some flat fair weather cumulus clouds dotting the
higher terrain will dissipate with onset of diurnal cooling cycle
this evening, setting up clear skies and good radiational cooling
overnight. Winds are generally light through the overnight, but
will see light S-SE flow develop from the Champlain Valley wwd
toward daybreak as surface low moves ewd across lower Michigan,
and high pressure shifts east of New England. With generally light
winds, should see some patchy fog develop after 04-05Z in the
deeper valleys within the northern Adirondack region and
central/ern VT. That said, increase in 925mb flow to near 15kts
toward daybreak may cause some increased low-level mixing and
preclude fog from becoming dense or very widespread. Overnight
lows generally in the low-mid 50s, except locally in the upr 50s
near Lake Champlain with developing south winds...and also in the
mid-upr 40s in the nrn Adirondacks given current dewpoint
readings.

Friday: Vigorous mid-level trough across lower Michigan at 12Z
will shift enewd with increasingly cyclonic flow and height falls
across nrn NY into VT during the afternoon and early evening
hours. Low-mid level wind fields become moderately strong with sfc
to 6km bulk shear reaching 30kts by 18Z and around 35kts at 21Z.
Strong differential PVA moving into nrn NY coincides with best
insolational heating, which should aid in low-level lapse rates
and convective initiation. Given strength of forcing for ascent,
not much question on development of showers and embedded tstms
across nrn NY and s-central VT beginning around 18Z, and then
spreading ENEWD across the Champlain valley mid-late afternoon,
and central/ern VT late afternoon into the evening hours. Have
included PoPs 80-90% during the peak heating hrs.

Primary limiting factor for widespread severe wx will be limited
moisture return. Current 2-m dewpoints generally upr 40s to lower
50s across the region, and expected to rise into the upr 50s by
early after Friday. These moisture values combined with high temps
in the upper 70s to lower 80s will contribute to fairly modest
SBCAPE peaking around 1000 J/kg. That said, believe incipient
updrafts can make use of excellent low-level hodograph structure
(0-1km SRH around 200 m2/s2 at BTV per NAM-12km) and favorable
deep- layer shear for a few rotating storms, which can augment
relatively low CAPE profiles. As such, will carry enhanced wording
at this time with hail and gusty winds mentioned in the forecast.
Depending on overall convective evolution, will need to watch for
any training cells across the nrn Adirondacks and n-central/nern
VT where soils remain moist from rainfall past 48-72 hrs (see
hydro section below for additional details). Overall QPF amts
generally 0.50 to 0.75", but could see some locally higher
footprints with any training thunderstorms. 3-hr FFG generally
2-3" attm.

Friday night: 700-500mb shortwave trough acquires negative tilt
across VT Friday evening, with going strong convective activity
exiting across ern half of VT between 00-03Z. Thereafter, surface
frontal passage brings westerly wind shift and lingering
clouds/isold showers overnight. Low temperatures generally in the
low-mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 328 PM EDT Thursday...Saturday and Saturday night we`ll see
our typical post frontal regime with the aforementioned upper low
settling up over the area post frontal passage. The morning should
begin dry with a mid-level dry slot pushing through, but by the
afternoon additional shortwave energy moving through the flow
aloft combined with residual low level moisture and west/northwest
upslope flow will allow for some scattered showers to develop,
mainly across northern portions of the area. With this loss of
insolational heating, any showers should dissipate though by the
late evening with clearing skies developing Saturday night as high
pressure edges into the region. Under the influence of the upper
low, temps through the period will be on the cool side of normal
for early July, with highs ranging only from the mid 60s to low
70s, and lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 328 PM EDT Thursday...Long term period highlight will
feature another prolonged dry stretch along with temperatures
moderating back towards seasonal normals. Behind the departing
trough for the early part of the weekend, surface high pressure
will build into the region for Sunday with building heights aloft
going into the early to middle part of next week. The result will
be mainly dry conditions, partly sunny/clear skies and pleasant
humidity. Highs will generally range from the mid 70s to low 80s,
and lows mainly in the 50s mountains to low 60s valleys.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Through 00Z Saturday...VFR/high pressure with light terrain-
driven winds less than 10 knots expected through 15Z Friday.
After 15Z advancing cold front will trigger scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms across the region as winds trend
southerly 6-12 kts and occasionally gusty with sct/bkn VFR cigs
from 050-100 AGL developing. Some of the thunderstorms may become
strong to locally severe with turbulence, gusty winds and hail
possible along with brief MVFR/IFR. Timing of storms generally
from 18-00Z from west to east after which activity should
wane/exit east.

Outlook 00Z Saturday through Tuesday...
00Z Saturday through 03Z Saturday...lingering showers/storms, a
few strong to locally severe early will wane and exit east.

03Z Saturday through 12z Saturday...Areas of MVFR ceilings possible
(mainly SLK/MPV) with westerly wind shift following frontal passage
late Friday evening. Isold rain showers possible during Friday
night, diminishing toward daybreak Saturday.

12Z Saturday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR through the period. Broad
upper trough brings a chance of light rain showers across the
northern mountains and International border area during the daylight
hours Saturday. LIFR possible in fog MPV/SLK early Monday and
Tuesday A.M., mainly 06-11Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 140 PM Thursday...Will be monitoring the potential for
heavy downpours Friday afternoon and evening associated with the
anticipated widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms. Strong
QG dynamics (700-500mb vort axis moving SW to NE across the
region) and associated surface front will move into environment
across the North Country with MLCAPE values generally 500-1000
J/kg, and moderate PW axis of 1.3 to 1.5" during the mid afternoon
through early evening hours. The mid-level trough is progressive
in moderately strong swly flow, which may limit duration of
heavier downpours in most locations. However, some indication of
backbuilding potential of storms with MBE vectors NE at 5-10kts
per NAM model soundings across central/nrn VT. So, will need to
monitor for training cells as convective evolution occurs. Areas
such as Franklin and western parts of Clinton County in NY as well
as the northern VT counties of Orleans, Caledonia and Essex
Counties would be slightly more vulnerable to flash flooding,
given antecedent saturated soil conditions from rainfall past 2-3
days. Main stem river flooding is not currently expected.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...JMG/Banacos
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...JMG/Banacos
HYDROLOGY...Banacos/Loconto




000
FXUS61 KBTV 302356
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
756 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control across the North Country this
evening and overnight with mainly clear skies and light winds. A
frontal system approaching from the Great Lakes region will bring
widespread showers with embedded thunderstorm activity Friday
afternoon into Friday evening. A few strong to severe storms are
possible with hail, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall. The
frontal system ushers in cooler air for Saturday, with high
temperatures only in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A few showers are
also possible across the Northern Mountains on Saturday.
Increasing sunshine and dry conditions are forecast for Sunday and
the Independence Day holiday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 756 PM EDT Thursday...Beautiful early summer weather
expected for tonight with clear skies, light winds and seasonable
temperatures. Other than some nominal tweaks to winds with latest
LAMP output the forecast remains largely unchanged. Held onto some
patchy fog in favored locales, though this should be fairly
limited in duration and areal coverage given the nocturnal period
is near its yearly minimum. Have a great evening.

Prior discussion from 224 PM EDT Thursday...
Main focus during the near-term period is potential strong to
severe thunderstorms and localized heavy rainfall for Friday
afternoon into Friday evening.

Tonight: Conditions will remain tranquil in the meantime with
ridge surface and aloft in place this evening and through much of
the overnight. Some flat fair weather cumulus clouds dotting the
higher terrain will dissipate with onset of diurnal cooling cycle
this evening, setting up clear skies and good radiational cooling
overnight. Winds are generally light through the overnight, but
will see light S-SE flow develop from the Champlain Valley wwd
toward daybreak as surface low moves ewd across lower Michigan,
and high pressure shifts east of New England. With generally light
winds, should see some patchy fog develop after 04-05Z in the
deeper valleys within the northern Adirondack region and
central/ern VT. That said, increase in 925mb flow to near 15kts
toward daybreak may cause some increased low-level mixing and
preclude fog from becoming dense or very widespread. Overnight
lows generally in the low-mid 50s, except locally in the upr 50s
near Lake Champlain with developing south winds...and also in the
mid-upr 40s in the nrn Adirondacks given current dewpoint
readings.

Friday: Vigorous mid-level trough across lower Michigan at 12Z
will shift enewd with increasingly cyclonic flow and height falls
across nrn NY into VT during the afternoon and early evening
hours. Low-mid level wind fields become moderately strong with sfc
to 6km bulk shear reaching 30kts by 18Z and around 35kts at 21Z.
Strong differential PVA moving into nrn NY coincides with best
insolational heating, which should aid in low-level lapse rates
and convective initiation. Given strength of forcing for ascent,
not much question on development of showers and embedded tstms
across nrn NY and s-central VT beginning around 18Z, and then
spreading ENEWD across the Champlain valley mid-late afternoon,
and central/ern VT late afternoon into the evening hours. Have
included PoPs 80-90% during the peak heating hrs.

Primary limiting factor for widespread severe wx will be limited
moisture return. Current 2-m dewpoints generally upr 40s to lower
50s across the region, and expected to rise into the upr 50s by
early after Friday. These moisture values combined with high temps
in the upper 70s to lower 80s will contribute to fairly modest
SBCAPE peaking around 1000 J/kg. That said, believe incipient
updrafts can make use of excellent low-level hodograph structure
(0-1km SRH around 200 m2/s2 at BTV per NAM-12km) and favorable
deep- layer shear for a few rotating storms, which can augment
relatively low CAPE profiles. As such, will carry enhanced wording
at this time with hail and gusty winds mentioned in the forecast.
Depending on overall convective evolution, will need to watch for
any training cells across the nrn Adirondacks and n-central/nern
VT where soils remain moist from rainfall past 48-72 hrs (see
hydro section below for additional details). Overall QPF amts
generally 0.50 to 0.75", but could see some locally higher
footprints with any training thunderstorms. 3-hr FFG generally
2-3" attm.

Friday night: 700-500mb shortwave trough acquires negative tilt
across VT Friday evening, with going strong convective activity
exiting across ern half of VT between 00-03Z. Thereafter, surface
frontal passage brings westerly wind shift and lingering
clouds/isold showers overnight. Low temperatures generally in the
low-mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 328 PM EDT Thursday...Saturday and Saturday night we`ll see
our typical post frontal regime with the aforementioned upper low
settling up over the area post frontal passage. The morning should
begin dry with a mid-level dry slot pushing through, but by the
afternoon additional shortwave energy moving through the flow
aloft combined with residual low level moisture and west/northwest
upslope flow will allow for some scattered showers to develop,
mainly across northern portions of the area. With this loss of
insolational heating, any showers should dissipate though by the
late evening with clearing skies developing Saturday night as high
pressure edges into the region. Under the influence of the upper
low, temps through the period will be on the cool side of normal
for early July, with highs ranging only from the mid 60s to low
70s, and lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 328 PM EDT Thursday...Long term period highlight will
feature another prolonged dry stretch along with temperatures
moderating back towards seasonal normals. Behind the departing
trough for the early part of the weekend, surface high pressure
will build into the region for Sunday with building heights aloft
going into the early to middle part of next week. The result will
be mainly dry conditions, partly sunny/clear skies and pleasant
humidity. Highs will generally range from the mid 70s to low 80s,
and lows mainly in the 50s mountains to low 60s valleys.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Through 00Z Saturday...VFR/high pressure with light terrain-
driven winds less than 10 knots expected through 15Z Friday.
After 15Z advancing cold front will trigger scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms across the region as winds trend
southerly 6-12 kts and occasionally gusty with sct/bkn VFR cigs
from 050-100 AGL developing. Some of the thunderstorms may become
strong to locally severe with turbulence, gusty winds and hail
possible along with brief MVFR/IFR. Timing of storms generally
from 18-00Z from west to east after which activity should
wane/exit east.

Outlook 00Z Saturday through Tuesday...
00Z Saturday through 03Z Saturday...lingering showers/storms, a
few strong to locally severe early will wane and exit east.

03Z Saturday through 12z Saturday...Areas of MVFR ceilings possible
(mainly SLK/MPV) with westerly wind shift following frontal passage
late Friday evening. Isold rain showers possible during Friday
night, diminishing toward daybreak Saturday.

12Z Saturday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR through the period. Broad
upper trough brings a chance of light rain showers across the
northern mountains and International border area during the daylight
hours Saturday. LIFR possible in fog MPV/SLK early Monday and
Tuesday A.M., mainly 06-11Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 140 PM Thursday...Will be monitoring the potential for
heavy downpours Friday afternoon and evening associated with the
anticipated widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms. Strong
QG dynamics (700-500mb vort axis moving SW to NE across the
region) and associated surface front will move into environment
across the North Country with MLCAPE values generally 500-1000
J/kg, and moderate PW axis of 1.3 to 1.5" during the mid afternoon
through early evening hours. The mid-level trough is progressive
in moderately strong swly flow, which may limit duration of
heavier downpours in most locations. However, some indication of
backbuilding potential of storms with MBE vectors NE at 5-10kts
per NAM model soundings across central/nrn VT. So, will need to
monitor for training cells as convective evolution occurs. Areas
such as Franklin and western parts of Clinton County in NY as well
as the northern VT counties of Orleans, Caledonia and Essex
Counties would be slightly more vulnerable to flash flooding,
given antecedent saturated soil conditions from rainfall past 2-3
days. Main stem river flooding is not currently expected.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...JMG/Banacos
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...JMG/Banacos
HYDROLOGY...Banacos/Loconto




000
FXUS61 KALY 302325
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
725 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected for the first day of July
as a strong cold front moves across the region. Some of these
storms may be strong to severe. Breezy and cooler conditions are
expected to the start of the holiday weekend. Temperatures will
moderate for the remainder of the long holiday weekend along with
dry conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 715 PM EDT, a veil of high clouds was slowly advancing
northeast across southwest areas, in association with an upper
level disturbance. These high clouds will continue to pass
northeast this evening.

In the wake of this disturbance, the overall trend for later tonight
will be a mainly clear sky through the early overnight period.
Thereafter, mid and upper level flow begins its transition toward
the southwest direction. Models agree with modest theta-e
advection closer to daybreak from south to north as some mid
level clouds may evolve and advect into the region (mainly south
of I90). Overnight lows will fall mainly into the 50s with a few
upper 40s across the highest of the terrain in the Adirondacks to
some lower 60s for the I84 corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
In collaboration with the Storm Prediction Center and neighboring
forecast offices...a Slight Risk category has been added to most
of our region.

H2O vapor shows the main culprit diving southeast across the upper
Mississippi River Valley and western Great Lakes. A diffluent flow
was quite evident downstream from this feature as mid level jet
core was moving through the central plains and toward the Ohio
Valley. Meanwhile, dewpoint analysis reveals upstream where
parcels are expected to originate from (Mason-Dixon line through
the mid-Atlantic) where generally between 55-65F. So while overall
dynamics will be quite strong across the region as upper trough
becomes negatively tilted, good height falls with impressive low
level surface convergence through Friday afternoon, question will
be how much of this low level moisture advects north and how
quickly the cloud coverage advects in will ultimately dictate just
how unstable the atmosphere will get. Per the SWODY2 discussion,
an average dewpoint value into the lower 60s with highs generally
between 75-80F were utilized in modified soundings from the
NAM/GFS. Surface parcels suggest SBCAPES around 1000 J/KG, yet
shear profiles, helicity values and hodographs were quite moderate
to high. These profiles point toward a potential for a few
supercells given the turning with height and a sct-bkn line of
convection along the cold front. Timing of this cold front looks
to occur around 21Z (plus/minus 2 hours). We will add enhanced
wording to the forecast including the HWO.

In the wake of the frontal passage, rather brisk conditions Friday
night into Saturday with still the threat of some showers mainly
north of I90 into the terrain. Mesoscale models hint at some lake
induced clouds and perhaps a shower or two across the Adirondacks
from both the lake and closer proximity to the deeper cyclonic
flow aloft and cooler temperatures aloft. Otherwise, mixing layer
height suggest we tap into the 20-30kt range with channeling down
the Mohawk. Highs will range from the 60s across the Adirondacks
to around 80F for the mid-Hudson Valley into portions of
Litchfield County.

Saturday night into Sunday looks dry and pleasant with some clouds
from time to time as weak fast moving waves pass through the
northwest flow from time to time. Temperatures under increasing
July sunshine will moderate Sunday after a cool start between
45-55F to between 75-85F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Generally dry conditions are expected to continue through much of
the long term portion of the forecast, with best chances for any
rain remaining to our south. There will be an upper level impulse
tracking east from the OH Valley region toward the northern Mid
Atlantic coast late Monday into Tuesday, with most global models
suggesting any rainfall associated with this system remaining to our
south. There are some 12Z/30 GEFS members suggesting a slightly more
northward track, so will include slight chance pops for southern
areas on Tuesday.

Otherwise, generally fair and seasonable temperatures for Sunday-
Monday. It should be a bit breezy Sunday, with west/northwest winds
possibly gusting up to 20-25 mph at times in the afternoon.

Another impulse may track to our north by Thursday, possibly
triggering isolated showers/thunderstorms, particularly areas north
of I-90. Slight chance pops have been indicated in this area.

As for temperatures, expect daytime highs to reach the mid 70s to
lower 80s Sunday, and lower/mid 80s in valleys, and upper 70s across
higher elevations for Monday-Tuesday, assuming the system to our
south does not impact the region. As upper level heights build for
Wednesday-Thursday, expect even warmer temperatures, despite low to
moderate humidity levels, with late day maximum temperatures
reaching the mid/upper 80s in valleys, and lower 80s across higher
elevations.

Overnight low temperatures through the period will generally be in
the upper 50s to lower 60s, except for some lower/mid 50s across
portions of the western Adirondacks and higher elevations across
southern Vermont.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will be over the northeast states tonight. A cold
front and an upper level disturbance will approach from the
eastern Great Lakes Region and southeast Canada late tomorrow
morning into the afternoon with scattered showers and
thunderstorms increasing ahead of the front.

Mainly VFR conditions are expected overnight. However, there is a
slight chance of some patchy ground fog at KGFL and KPSF between
roughly 05Z-10Z/Fri. This could lead to intermittent MVFR/IFR
conditions.

VFR conditions should be prevalent for Friday morning. Then,
showers and embedded thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon.
This could lead to at least a few periods of MVFR/IFR
visibilities/ceilings...mainly after 20Z/Fri.

West winds early this evening at 5-10 KT will become
light/variable to calm overnight. On Friday, winds will become
mainly south at 5-10 KT. It may be stronger at KALB, with some
gusts up to 15-20 KT in the late morning and afternoon hours.

Winds will be much stronger, and variable in direction in and near
any thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday to Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected for the first day of July
as a strong cold front moves across the region. Some of these
storms may be strong to severe. Breezy and cooler conditions are
expected to the start of the holiday weekend. Temperatures will
moderate for the remainder of the long holiday weekend along with
dry conditions.

Latest drought monitor places most of our region `Abnormally Dry`
with portions of the Catskills into `Moderate Drought`. This may
have implications with Fire Weather concerns if rainfall on Friday
is less than forecast.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread hydrological problems are not anticipated over the
next several days. Showers and thunderstorms, some containing
brief heavy rainfall, are expected to move across the region
Friday afternoon. At this time, due to low river levels, within
bank river rises are expected. Thereafter, an extended period of fair
weather is expected for the rest of the long holiday weekend into
early next week.

Latest drought monitor places most of our region `Abnormally Dry`
with portions of the Catskills into `Moderate Drought`.
Abnormally dry indicates dryness but not yet in drought.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 301956
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
356 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected for the first day of July
as a strong cold front moves across the region. Some of these
storms may be strong to severe. Breezy and cooler conditions are
expected to the start of the holiday weekend. Temperatures will
moderate for the remainder of the long holiday weekend along with
dry conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 345 PM EDT...Pleasant afternoon across the entire region as
temperatures range from the 70s to lower 80s with a mixture of
diurnally driven cumulus and a mix of scattered cirrus clouds
(could make for a nice sunset with sun-dogs) as short wave was
rotating toward the region from western New York. Overall trend
tonight will be a mainly clear sky through the early overnight
period. Thereafter, mid and upper level flow begins its transition
toward the southwest direction. Models agree with modest theta-e
advection late tonight from south to north as some mid level
clouds may evolve and advect into the region (mainly south of
I90). Overnight lows will fall mainly into the 50s with a few
upper 40s across the highest of the terrain in the Adirondacks to
some lower 60s for the I84 corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
In collaboration with the Storm Prediction Center and neighboring
forecast offices...a Slight Risk category has been added to most
of our region.

H2O vapor shows the main culprit diving southeast across the upper
Mississippi River Valley and western Great Lakes. A diffluent flow
was quite evident downstream from this feature as mid level jet
core was moving through the central plains and toward the Ohio
Valley. Meanwhile, dewpoint analysis reveals upstream where
parcels are expected to originate from (Mason-Dixon line through
the mid-Atlantic) where generally between 55-65F. So while overall
dynamics will be quite strong across the region as upper trough
becomes negatively tilted, good height falls with impressive low
level surface convergence through Friday afternoon, question will
be how much of this low level moisture advects north and how
quickly the cloud coverage advects in will ultimately dictate just
how unstable the atmosphere will get. Per the SWODY2 discussion,
an average dewpoint value into the lower 60s with highs generally
between 75-80F were utilized in modified soundings from the
NAM/GFS. Surface parcels suggest SBCAPES around 1000 J/KG, yet
shear profiles, helicity values and hodographs were quite moderate
to high. These profiles point toward a potential for a few
supercells given the turning with height and a sct-bkn line of
convection along the cold front. Timing of this cold front looks
to occur around 21Z (plus/minus 2 hours). We will add enhanced
wording to the forecast including the HWO.

In the wake of the frontal passage, rather brisk conditions Friday
night into Saturday with still the threat of some showers mainly
north of I90 into the terrain. Mesoscale models hint at some lake
induced clouds and perhaps a shower or two across the Adirondacks
from both the lake and closer proximity to the deeper cyclonic
flow aloft and cooler temperatures aloft. Otherwise, mixing layer
height suggest we tap into the 20-30kt range with channeling down
the Mohawk. Highs will range from the 60s across the Adirondacks
to around 80F for the mid-Hudson Valley into portions of
Litchfield County.

Saturday night into Sunday looks dry and pleasant with some clouds
from time to time as weak fast moving waves pass through the
northwest flow from time to time. Temperatures under increasing
July sunshine will moderate Sunday after a cool start between
45-55F to between 75-85F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Generally dry conditions are expected to continue through much of
the long term portion of the forecast, with best chances for any
rain remaining to our south. There will be an upper level impulse
tracking east from the OH Valley region toward the northern Mid
Atlantic coast late Monday into Tuesday, with most global models
suggesting any rainfall associated with this system remaining to our
south. There are some 12Z/30 GEFS members suggesting a slightly more
northward track, so will include slight chance pops for southern
areas on Tuesday.

Otherwise, generally fair and seasonable temperatures for Sunday-
Monday. It should be a bit breezy Sunday, with west/northwest winds
possibly gusting up to 20-25 mph at times in the afternoon.

Another impulse may track to our north by Thursday, possibly
triggering isolated showers/thunderstorms, particularly areas north
of I-90. Slight chance pops have been indicated in this area.

As for temperatures, expect daytime highs to reach the mid 70s to
lower 80s Sunday, and lower/mid 80s in valleys, and upper 70s across
higher elevations for Monday-Tuesday, assuming the system to our
south does not impact the region. As upper level heights build for
Wednesday-Thursday, expect even warmer temperatures, despite low to
moderate humidity levels, with late day maximum temperatures
reaching the mid/upper 80s in valleys, and lower 80s across higher
elevations.

Overnight low temperatures through the period will generally be in
the upper 50s to lower 60s, except for some lower/mid 50s across
portions of the western Adirondacks and higher elevations across
southern Vermont.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will be over the Northeast this afternoon into
tonight. A cold front and an upper level disturbance will approach
from the eastern Great Lakes Region and southeast Canada late
tomorrow morning into the afternoon with scattered showers and
thunderstorms increasing ahead of the front.

VFR conditions will mainly continue the next 24 hours ending
18Z/FRI. A few-sct fair wx cumulus...and a few-sct cirrus will
persist this afternoon into early this evening. Mid and high
clouds will increase from the south and west tonight. There is a
small chance for MVFR/IFR radiational mist/fog at KPSF btwn 07Z-
12Z. Our confidence is not high with the increasing clouds...so a
narrow window of perhaps brief MVFR mist is possible. Sct-Bkn mid
level clouds in the 6-8 kft AGL will be common across the region
after 12Z/FRI.

The winds will be variable in direction at 5-10 kts or less this
afternoon...and will become calm tonight...except at KALB that
southerly winds may persist in the 4-8 kt range tonight. The winds
will increase from the south at 5-10 kts in the late morning
tomorrow ahead of the front.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday to Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected for the first day of July
as a strong cold front moves across the region. Some of these
storms may be strong to severe. Breezy and cooler conditions are
expected to the start of the holiday weekend. Temperatures will
moderate for the remainder of the long holiday weekend along with
dry conditions.

Latest drought monitor places most of our region `Abnormally Dry`
with portions of the Catskills into `Moderate Drought`. This may
have implications with Fire Weather concerns if rainfall on Friday
is less than forecast.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread hydrological problems are not anticipated over the
next several days. Showers and thunderstorms, some containing
brief heavy rainfall, are expected to move across the region
Friday afternoon. At this time, due to low river levels, within
bank river rises are expected. Thereafter, an extended period of fair
weather is expected for the rest of the long holiday weekend into
early next week.

Latest drought monitor places most of our region `Abnormally Dry`
with portions of the Catskills into `Moderate Drought`.
Abnormally dry indicates dryness but not yet in drought.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM

www.weather.gov/albany




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301928
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
328 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control across the North Country this
evening and overnight with mainly clear skies and light winds. A
frontal system approaching from the Great Lakes region will bring
widespread showers with embedded thunderstorm activity Friday
afternoon into Friday evening. A few strong to severe storms are
possible with hail, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall. The
frontal system ushers in cooler air for Saturday, with high
temperatures only in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A few showers are
also possible across the Northern Mountains on Saturday.
Increasing sunshine and dry conditions are forecast for Sunday and
the Independence Day holiday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 224 PM EDT Thursday...Main focus during the near-term period
is potential strong to severe thunderstorms and localized heavy
rainfall for Friday afternoon into Friday evening.

Tonight: Conditions will remain tranquil in the meantime with
ridge surface and aloft in place this evening and through much of
the overnight. Some flat fair weather cumulus clouds dotting the
higher terrain will dissipate with onset of diurnal cooling cycle
this evening, setting up clear skies and good radiational cooling
overnight. Winds are generally light through the overnight, but
will see light S-SE flow develop from the Champlain Valley wwd
toward daybreak as surface low moves ewd across lower Michigan,
and high pressure shifts east of New England. With generally light
winds, should see some patchy fog develop after 04-05Z in the
deeper valleys within the northern Adirondack region and
central/ern VT. That said, increase in 925mb flow to near 15kts
toward daybreak may cause some increased low-level mixing and
preclude fog from becoming dense or very widespread. Overnight
lows generally in the low-mid 50s, except locally in the upr 50s
near Lake Champlain with developing south winds...and also in the
mid-upr 40s in the nrn Adirondacks given current dewpoint
readings.

Friday: Vigorous mid-level trough across lower Michigan at 12Z
will shift enewd with increasingly cyclonic flow and height falls
across nrn NY into VT during the afternoon and early evening
hours. Low-mid level wind fields become moderately strong with sfc
to 6km bulk shear reaching 30kts by 18Z and around 35kts at 21Z.
Strong differential PVA moving into nrn NY coincides with best
insolational heating, which should aid in low-level lapse rates
and convective initiation. Given strength of forcing for ascent,
not much question on development of showers and embedded tstms
across nrn NY and s-central VT beginning around 18Z, and then
spreading ENEWD across the Champlain valley mid-late afternoon,
and central/ern VT late afternoon into the evening hours. Have
included PoPs 80-90% during the peak heating hrs.

Primary limiting factor for widespread severe wx will be limited
moisture return. Current 2-m dewpoints generally upr 40s to lower
50s across the region, and expected to rise into the upr 50s by
early after Friday. These moisture values combined with high temps
in the upper 70s to lower 80s will contribute to fairly modest
SBCAPE peaking around 1000 J/kg. That said, believe incipient
updrafts can make use of excellent low-level hodograph structure
(0-1km SRH around 200 m2/s2 at BTV per NAM-12km) and favorable
deep- layer shear for a few rotating storms, which can augment
relatively low CAPE profiles. As such, will carry enhanced wording
at this time with hail and gusty winds mentioned in the forecast.
Depending on overall convective evolution, will need to watch for
any training cells across the nrn Adirondacks and n-central/nern
VT where soils remain moist from rainfall past 48-72 hrs (see
hydro section below for additional details). Overall QPF amts
generally 0.50 to 0.75", but could see some locally higher
footprints with any training thunderstorms. 3-hr FFG generally
2-3" attm.

Friday night: 700-500mb shortwave trough acquires negative tilt
across VT Friday evening, with going strong convective activity
exiting across ern half of VT between 00-03Z. Thereafter, surface
frontal passage brings westerly wind shift and lingering
clouds/isold showers overnight. Low temperatures generally in the
low-mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 328 PM EDT Thursday...Saturday and Saturday night we`ll see
our typical post frontal regime with the aforementioned upper low
settling up over the area post frontal passage. The morning should
begin dry with a mid-level dry slot pushing through, but by the
afternoon additional shortwave energy moving through the flow
aloft combined with residual low level moisture and west/northwest
upslope flow will allow for some scattered showers to develop,
mainly across northern portions of the area. With this loss of
insolational heating, any showers should dissipate though by the
late evening with clearing skies developing Saturday night as high
pressure edges into the region. Under the influence of the upper
low, temps through the period will be on the cool side of normal
for early July, with highs ranging only from the mid 60s to low
70s, and lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 328 PM EDT Thursday...Long term period highlight will
feature another prolonged dry stretch along with temperatures
moderating back towards seasonal normals. Behind the departing
trough for the early part of the weekend, surface high pressure
will build into the region for Sunday with building heights aloft
going into the early to middle part of next week. The result will
be mainly dry conditions, partly sunny/clear skies and pleasant
humidity. Highs will generally range from the mid 70s to low 80s,
and lows mainly in the 50s mountains to low 60s valleys.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Through 18Z Friday...Surface high pressure in control with
VFR/FEW-SCT050 conditions through sunset, then mainly clear
tonight. Will see localized LIFR fog potential at MPV/SLK, mainly
06-11Z. Surface winds light through the remainder of today and
through tonight, becoming S 6-10kts mid to late morning Friday as
frontal system approaches from the Great Lakes region. Will see
increasing VFR cloudiness by late morning Friday, with development
of isold shower/tstm activity toward 17-18Z Friday mainly
Adirondacks/St. Lawrence Valley, and possibly s-central VT (with
further increase in precipitation coverage north and east later in
the afternoon/evening). Since potential precipitation is right at
the end of the current TAF period, and most likely after 18Z, have
left out mention ATTM.

Outlook 18z Friday through Tuesday...
18Z Friday through 03Z Saturday...Numerous showers and thunderstorms
expected across the North Country bringing heavy downpours/cloud-to-
ground lightning, and potential for small hail and/or gusty winds
with any strong to severe cells. For affected TAF sites,
intervals of MVFR to IFR conditions possible for 30-60 minutes
during t-storm activity, mainly mid-afternoon through early
evening.

03Z Saturday through 12z Saturday...Areas of MVFR ceilings possible
(mainly SLK/MPV) with westerly wind shift following frontal passage
late Friday evening. Isold rain showers possible during Friday
night, diminishing toward daybreak Saturday.

12Z Saturday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR through the period. Broad
upper trough brings a chance of light rain showers across the
northern mountains and International border area during the daylight
hours Saturday. LIFR possible in fog MPV/SLK early Monday and
Tuesday A.M., mainly 06-11Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 140 PM Thursday...Will be monitoring the potential for
heavy downpours Friday afternoon and evening associated with the
anticipated widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms. Strong
QG dynamics (700-500mb vort axis moving SW to NE across the
region) and associated surface front will move into environment
across the North Country with MLCAPE values generally 500-1000
J/kg, and moderate PW axis of 1.3 to 1.5" during the mid afternoon
through early evening hours. The mid-level trough is progressive
in moderately strong swly flow, which may limit duration of
heavier downpours in most locations. However, some indication of
backbuilding potential of storms with MBE vectors NE at 5-10kts
per NAM model soundings across central/nrn VT. So, will need to
monitor for training cells as convective evolution occurs. Areas
such as Franklin and western parts of Clinton County in NY as well
as the northern VT counties of Orleans, Caledonia and Essex
Counties would be slightly more vulnerable to flash flooding,
given antecedent saturated soil conditions from rainfall past 2-3
days. Main stem river flooding is not currently expected.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Banacos
HYDROLOGY...Loconto/Banacos




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301928
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
328 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control across the North Country this
evening and overnight with mainly clear skies and light winds. A
frontal system approaching from the Great Lakes region will bring
widespread showers with embedded thunderstorm activity Friday
afternoon into Friday evening. A few strong to severe storms are
possible with hail, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall. The
frontal system ushers in cooler air for Saturday, with high
temperatures only in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A few showers are
also possible across the Northern Mountains on Saturday.
Increasing sunshine and dry conditions are forecast for Sunday and
the Independence Day holiday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 224 PM EDT Thursday...Main focus during the near-term period
is potential strong to severe thunderstorms and localized heavy
rainfall for Friday afternoon into Friday evening.

Tonight: Conditions will remain tranquil in the meantime with
ridge surface and aloft in place this evening and through much of
the overnight. Some flat fair weather cumulus clouds dotting the
higher terrain will dissipate with onset of diurnal cooling cycle
this evening, setting up clear skies and good radiational cooling
overnight. Winds are generally light through the overnight, but
will see light S-SE flow develop from the Champlain Valley wwd
toward daybreak as surface low moves ewd across lower Michigan,
and high pressure shifts east of New England. With generally light
winds, should see some patchy fog develop after 04-05Z in the
deeper valleys within the northern Adirondack region and
central/ern VT. That said, increase in 925mb flow to near 15kts
toward daybreak may cause some increased low-level mixing and
preclude fog from becoming dense or very widespread. Overnight
lows generally in the low-mid 50s, except locally in the upr 50s
near Lake Champlain with developing south winds...and also in the
mid-upr 40s in the nrn Adirondacks given current dewpoint
readings.

Friday: Vigorous mid-level trough across lower Michigan at 12Z
will shift enewd with increasingly cyclonic flow and height falls
across nrn NY into VT during the afternoon and early evening
hours. Low-mid level wind fields become moderately strong with sfc
to 6km bulk shear reaching 30kts by 18Z and around 35kts at 21Z.
Strong differential PVA moving into nrn NY coincides with best
insolational heating, which should aid in low-level lapse rates
and convective initiation. Given strength of forcing for ascent,
not much question on development of showers and embedded tstms
across nrn NY and s-central VT beginning around 18Z, and then
spreading ENEWD across the Champlain valley mid-late afternoon,
and central/ern VT late afternoon into the evening hours. Have
included PoPs 80-90% during the peak heating hrs.

Primary limiting factor for widespread severe wx will be limited
moisture return. Current 2-m dewpoints generally upr 40s to lower
50s across the region, and expected to rise into the upr 50s by
early after Friday. These moisture values combined with high temps
in the upper 70s to lower 80s will contribute to fairly modest
SBCAPE peaking around 1000 J/kg. That said, believe incipient
updrafts can make use of excellent low-level hodograph structure
(0-1km SRH around 200 m2/s2 at BTV per NAM-12km) and favorable
deep- layer shear for a few rotating storms, which can augment
relatively low CAPE profiles. As such, will carry enhanced wording
at this time with hail and gusty winds mentioned in the forecast.
Depending on overall convective evolution, will need to watch for
any training cells across the nrn Adirondacks and n-central/nern
VT where soils remain moist from rainfall past 48-72 hrs (see
hydro section below for additional details). Overall QPF amts
generally 0.50 to 0.75", but could see some locally higher
footprints with any training thunderstorms. 3-hr FFG generally
2-3" attm.

Friday night: 700-500mb shortwave trough acquires negative tilt
across VT Friday evening, with going strong convective activity
exiting across ern half of VT between 00-03Z. Thereafter, surface
frontal passage brings westerly wind shift and lingering
clouds/isold showers overnight. Low temperatures generally in the
low-mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 328 PM EDT Thursday...Saturday and Saturday night we`ll see
our typical post frontal regime with the aforementioned upper low
settling up over the area post frontal passage. The morning should
begin dry with a mid-level dry slot pushing through, but by the
afternoon additional shortwave energy moving through the flow
aloft combined with residual low level moisture and west/northwest
upslope flow will allow for some scattered showers to develop,
mainly across northern portions of the area. With this loss of
insolational heating, any showers should dissipate though by the
late evening with clearing skies developing Saturday night as high
pressure edges into the region. Under the influence of the upper
low, temps through the period will be on the cool side of normal
for early July, with highs ranging only from the mid 60s to low
70s, and lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 328 PM EDT Thursday...Long term period highlight will
feature another prolonged dry stretch along with temperatures
moderating back towards seasonal normals. Behind the departing
trough for the early part of the weekend, surface high pressure
will build into the region for Sunday with building heights aloft
going into the early to middle part of next week. The result will
be mainly dry conditions, partly sunny/clear skies and pleasant
humidity. Highs will generally range from the mid 70s to low 80s,
and lows mainly in the 50s mountains to low 60s valleys.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Through 18Z Friday...Surface high pressure in control with
VFR/FEW-SCT050 conditions through sunset, then mainly clear
tonight. Will see localized LIFR fog potential at MPV/SLK, mainly
06-11Z. Surface winds light through the remainder of today and
through tonight, becoming S 6-10kts mid to late morning Friday as
frontal system approaches from the Great Lakes region. Will see
increasing VFR cloudiness by late morning Friday, with development
of isold shower/tstm activity toward 17-18Z Friday mainly
Adirondacks/St. Lawrence Valley, and possibly s-central VT (with
further increase in precipitation coverage north and east later in
the afternoon/evening). Since potential precipitation is right at
the end of the current TAF period, and most likely after 18Z, have
left out mention ATTM.

Outlook 18z Friday through Tuesday...
18Z Friday through 03Z Saturday...Numerous showers and thunderstorms
expected across the North Country bringing heavy downpours/cloud-to-
ground lightning, and potential for small hail and/or gusty winds
with any strong to severe cells. For affected TAF sites,
intervals of MVFR to IFR conditions possible for 30-60 minutes
during t-storm activity, mainly mid-afternoon through early
evening.

03Z Saturday through 12z Saturday...Areas of MVFR ceilings possible
(mainly SLK/MPV) with westerly wind shift following frontal passage
late Friday evening. Isold rain showers possible during Friday
night, diminishing toward daybreak Saturday.

12Z Saturday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR through the period. Broad
upper trough brings a chance of light rain showers across the
northern mountains and International border area during the daylight
hours Saturday. LIFR possible in fog MPV/SLK early Monday and
Tuesday A.M., mainly 06-11Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 140 PM Thursday...Will be monitoring the potential for
heavy downpours Friday afternoon and evening associated with the
anticipated widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms. Strong
QG dynamics (700-500mb vort axis moving SW to NE across the
region) and associated surface front will move into environment
across the North Country with MLCAPE values generally 500-1000
J/kg, and moderate PW axis of 1.3 to 1.5" during the mid afternoon
through early evening hours. The mid-level trough is progressive
in moderately strong swly flow, which may limit duration of
heavier downpours in most locations. However, some indication of
backbuilding potential of storms with MBE vectors NE at 5-10kts
per NAM model soundings across central/nrn VT. So, will need to
monitor for training cells as convective evolution occurs. Areas
such as Franklin and western parts of Clinton County in NY as well
as the northern VT counties of Orleans, Caledonia and Essex
Counties would be slightly more vulnerable to flash flooding,
given antecedent saturated soil conditions from rainfall past 2-3
days. Main stem river flooding is not currently expected.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Banacos
HYDROLOGY...Loconto/Banacos




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301854
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
254 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control across the North Country this
evening and overnight with mainly clear skies and light winds. A
frontal system approaching from the Great Lakes region will bring
widespread showers with embedded thunderstorm activity Friday
afternoon into Friday evening. A few strong to severe storms are
possible with hail, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall. The
frontal system ushers in cooler air for Saturday, with high
temperatures only in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A few showers are
also possible across the Northern Mountains on Saturday.
Increasing sunshine and dry conditions are forecast for Sunday and
the Independence Day holiday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 224 PM EDT Thursday...Main focus during the near-term period
is potential strong to severe thunderstorms and localized heavy
rainfall for Friday afternoon into Friday evening.

Tonight: Conditions will remain tranquil in the meantime with
ridge surface and aloft in place this evening and through much of
the overnight. Some flat fair weather cumulus clouds dotting the
higher terrain will dissipate with onset of diurnal cooling cycle
this evening, setting up clear skies and good radiational cooling
overnight. Winds are generally light through the overnight, but
will see light S-SE flow develop from the Champlain Valley wwd
toward daybreak as surface low moves ewd across lower Michigan,
and high pressure shifts east of New England. With generally light
winds, should see some patchy fog develop after 04-05Z in the
deeper valleys within the northern Adirondack region and
central/ern VT. That said, increase in 925mb flow to near 15kts
toward daybreak may cause some increased low-level mixing and
preclude fog from becoming dense or very widespread. Overnight
lows generally in the low-mid 50s, except locally in the upr 50s
near Lake Champlain with developing south winds...and also in the
mid-upr 40s in the nrn Adirondacks given current dewpoint
readings.

Friday: Vigorous mid-level trough across lower Michigan at 12Z
will shift enewd with increasingly cyclonic flow and height falls
across nrn NY into VT during the afternoon and early evening
hours. Low-mid level wind fields become moderately strong with sfc
to 6km bulk shear reaching 30kts by 18Z and around 35kts at 21Z.
Strong differential PVA moving into nrn NY coincides with best
insolational heating, which should aid in low-level lapse rates
and convective initiation. Given strength of forcing for ascent,
not much question on development of showers and embedded tstms
across nrn NY and s-central VT beginning around 18Z, and then
spreading ENEWD across the Champlain valley mid-late afternoon,
and central/ern VT late afternoon into the evening hours. Have
included PoPs 80-90% during the peak heating hrs.

Primary limiting factor for widespread severe wx will be limited
moisture return. Current 2-m dewpoints generally upr 40s to lower
50s across the region, and expected to rise into the upr 50s by
early after Friday. These moisture values combined with high temps
in the upper 70s to lower 80s will contribute to fairly modest
SBCAPE peaking around 1000 J/kg. That said, believe incipient
updrafts can make use of excellent low-level hodograph structure
(0-1km SRH around 200 m2/s2 at BTV per NAM-12km) and favorable
deep- layer shear for a few rotating storms, which can augment
relatively low CAPE profiles. As such, will carry enhanced wording
at this time with hail and gusty winds mentioned in the forecast.
Depending on overall convective evolution, will need to watch for
any training cells across the nrn Adirondacks and n-central/nern
VT where soils remain moist from rainfall past 48-72 hrs (see
hydro section below for additional details). Overall QPF amts
generally 0.50 to 0.75", but could see some locally higher
footprints with any training thunderstorms. 3-hr FFG generally
2-3" attm.

Friday night: 700-500mb shortwave trough acquires negative tilt
across VT Friday evening, with going strong convective activity
exiting across ern half of VT between 00-03Z. Thereafter, surface
frontal passage brings westerly wind shift and lingering
clouds/isold showers overnight. Low temperatures generally in the
low-mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 426 AM EDT Thursday...More active weather then develops for
Friday into Friday evening, as a negatively-tilted 500 mb
shortwave trough and cold front/occlusion sweep across the region.
Models are in generally good agreement on timing of the
rain/storms, though the 00z ECMWF is a bit slower than
NAM/SREF/GFS. Sided closer to the latter, faster guidance. Expect
gradually lowering cloud cover to develop and move northward into
the Friday morning hours, which will serve to really limit the
degree of afternoon surface-based instability and low-level lapse
rates to CAPE values at or below 1000 J/kg. In addition, 25-35 kts
of BL-6 km effective shear may support a few organized cells but
isn`t overly impressive. While SPC`s SWODY2 maintains a Marginal
Risk/5% combined severe probabilities, agree with prior forecast
thinking that severe is looking to be less of a factor over the
hydro aspect. For more on the hydrologic aspects, see the
Hydrology section below. Raised PoPs into the high likely range
during the Friday afternoon and Friday early-evening period
associated with the front, and then decreasing to chance/slight
chance for late evening into the overnight. Forcing for ascent
owing to the negative tilt of the trough, a decent moisture axis
of PWATs between 1.2-1.4" and at least modest instability should
support a risk of localized heavy rainfall and I`ve included this
wording in Wx grids.

With the cloud cover that`s likely to be the case in the morning,
I`ve trended lower on the high temperatures than MOS guidance and
what 925 mb temps would otherwise support under full mixing. Using
a blend of cooler raw guidance, I`ve got highs in the 70s.
Likewise, look for temps to be slightly warmer than MOS
(particularly central/eastern VT) from the low/mid 50s for NY into
the mid/upper 50s for most of VT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 426 AM EDT Thursday...Saturday becomes our typical post
frontal regime with the upper low settling in over the area with
lowering heights, residual low level moisture and west to
northwest upslope flow allowing for showers, mainly across the
northern portion of the area closer to the upper low centered over
Quebec. It will be cool and breezy as well with highs only around
70 and northwest winds 15-25 mph.

Drier and Milder on Sunday although can`t rule out an isolated
shower along the canadian border on sunday afternoon. however dry
for any firework displays sunday night.

Monday(4th) will be dry and seasonably warm. Late morning
temperatures in the 60s/70s will be ideal for any parades.

Broad ridge over the central US sets up for the rest of the week.
a shortwave trough moves west to east in westerly flow but will
remain mainly south of the forecast area across southern NY and PA
on Tuesday. Weak ridge builds in for mid week with slightly
warmer than normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Through 18Z Friday...Surface high pressure in control with
VFR/FEW-SCT050 conditions through sunset, then mainly clear
tonight. Will see localized LIFR fog potential at MPV/SLK, mainly
06-11Z. Surface winds light through the remainder of today and
through tonight, becoming S 6-10kts mid to late morning Friday as
frontal system approaches from the Great Lakes region. Will see
increasing VFR cloudiness by late morning Friday, with development
of isold shower/tstm activity toward 17-18Z Friday mainly
Adirondacks/St. Lawrence Valley, and possibly s-central VT (with
further increase in precipitation coverage north and east later in
the afternoon/evening). Since potential precipitation is right at
the end of the current TAF period, and most likely after 18Z, have
left out mention ATTM.

Outlook 18z Friday through Tuesday...
18Z Friday through 03Z Saturday...Numerous showers and thunderstorms
expected across the North Country bringing heavy downpours/cloud-to-
ground lightning, and potential for small hail and/or gusty winds
with any strong to severe cells. For affected TAF sites,
intervals of MVFR to IFR conditions possible for 30-60 minutes
during t-storm activity, mainly mid-afternoon through early
evening.

03Z Saturday through 12z Saturday...Areas of MVFR ceilings possible
(mainly SLK/MPV) with westerly wind shift following frontal passage
late Friday evening. Isold rain showers possible during Friday
night, diminishing toward daybreak Saturday.

12Z Saturday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR through the period. Broad
upper trough brings a chance of light rain showers across the
northern mountains and International border area during the daylight
hours Saturday. LIFR possible in fog MPV/SLK early Monday and
Tuesday A.M., mainly 06-11Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 140 PM Thursday...Will be monitoring the potential for
heavy downpours Friday afternoon and evening associated with the
anticipated widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms. Strong
QG dynamics (700-500mb vort axis moving SW to NE across the
region) and associated surface front will move into environment
across the North Country with MLCAPE values generally 500-1000
J/kg, and moderate PW axis of 1.3 to 1.5" during the mid afternoon
through early evening hours. The mid-level trough is progressive
in moderately strong swly flow, which may limit duration of
heavier downpours in most locations. However, some indication of
backbuilding potential of storms with MBE vectors NE at 5-10kts
per NAM model soundings across central/nrn VT. So, will need to
monitor for training cells as convective evolution occurs. Areas
such as Franklin and western parts of Clinton County in NY as well
as the northern VT counties of Orleans, Caledonia and Essex
Counties would be slightly more vulnerable to flash flooding,
given antecedent saturated soil conditions from rainfall past 2-3
days. Main stem river flooding is not currently expected.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Loconto
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Banacos
HYDROLOGY...Loconto/Banacos




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301854
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
254 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control across the North Country this
evening and overnight with mainly clear skies and light winds. A
frontal system approaching from the Great Lakes region will bring
widespread showers with embedded thunderstorm activity Friday
afternoon into Friday evening. A few strong to severe storms are
possible with hail, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall. The
frontal system ushers in cooler air for Saturday, with high
temperatures only in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A few showers are
also possible across the Northern Mountains on Saturday.
Increasing sunshine and dry conditions are forecast for Sunday and
the Independence Day holiday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 224 PM EDT Thursday...Main focus during the near-term period
is potential strong to severe thunderstorms and localized heavy
rainfall for Friday afternoon into Friday evening.

Tonight: Conditions will remain tranquil in the meantime with
ridge surface and aloft in place this evening and through much of
the overnight. Some flat fair weather cumulus clouds dotting the
higher terrain will dissipate with onset of diurnal cooling cycle
this evening, setting up clear skies and good radiational cooling
overnight. Winds are generally light through the overnight, but
will see light S-SE flow develop from the Champlain Valley wwd
toward daybreak as surface low moves ewd across lower Michigan,
and high pressure shifts east of New England. With generally light
winds, should see some patchy fog develop after 04-05Z in the
deeper valleys within the northern Adirondack region and
central/ern VT. That said, increase in 925mb flow to near 15kts
toward daybreak may cause some increased low-level mixing and
preclude fog from becoming dense or very widespread. Overnight
lows generally in the low-mid 50s, except locally in the upr 50s
near Lake Champlain with developing south winds...and also in the
mid-upr 40s in the nrn Adirondacks given current dewpoint
readings.

Friday: Vigorous mid-level trough across lower Michigan at 12Z
will shift enewd with increasingly cyclonic flow and height falls
across nrn NY into VT during the afternoon and early evening
hours. Low-mid level wind fields become moderately strong with sfc
to 6km bulk shear reaching 30kts by 18Z and around 35kts at 21Z.
Strong differential PVA moving into nrn NY coincides with best
insolational heating, which should aid in low-level lapse rates
and convective initiation. Given strength of forcing for ascent,
not much question on development of showers and embedded tstms
across nrn NY and s-central VT beginning around 18Z, and then
spreading ENEWD across the Champlain valley mid-late afternoon,
and central/ern VT late afternoon into the evening hours. Have
included PoPs 80-90% during the peak heating hrs.

Primary limiting factor for widespread severe wx will be limited
moisture return. Current 2-m dewpoints generally upr 40s to lower
50s across the region, and expected to rise into the upr 50s by
early after Friday. These moisture values combined with high temps
in the upper 70s to lower 80s will contribute to fairly modest
SBCAPE peaking around 1000 J/kg. That said, believe incipient
updrafts can make use of excellent low-level hodograph structure
(0-1km SRH around 200 m2/s2 at BTV per NAM-12km) and favorable
deep- layer shear for a few rotating storms, which can augment
relatively low CAPE profiles. As such, will carry enhanced wording
at this time with hail and gusty winds mentioned in the forecast.
Depending on overall convective evolution, will need to watch for
any training cells across the nrn Adirondacks and n-central/nern
VT where soils remain moist from rainfall past 48-72 hrs (see
hydro section below for additional details). Overall QPF amts
generally 0.50 to 0.75", but could see some locally higher
footprints with any training thunderstorms. 3-hr FFG generally
2-3" attm.

Friday night: 700-500mb shortwave trough acquires negative tilt
across VT Friday evening, with going strong convective activity
exiting across ern half of VT between 00-03Z. Thereafter, surface
frontal passage brings westerly wind shift and lingering
clouds/isold showers overnight. Low temperatures generally in the
low-mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 426 AM EDT Thursday...More active weather then develops for
Friday into Friday evening, as a negatively-tilted 500 mb
shortwave trough and cold front/occlusion sweep across the region.
Models are in generally good agreement on timing of the
rain/storms, though the 00z ECMWF is a bit slower than
NAM/SREF/GFS. Sided closer to the latter, faster guidance. Expect
gradually lowering cloud cover to develop and move northward into
the Friday morning hours, which will serve to really limit the
degree of afternoon surface-based instability and low-level lapse
rates to CAPE values at or below 1000 J/kg. In addition, 25-35 kts
of BL-6 km effective shear may support a few organized cells but
isn`t overly impressive. While SPC`s SWODY2 maintains a Marginal
Risk/5% combined severe probabilities, agree with prior forecast
thinking that severe is looking to be less of a factor over the
hydro aspect. For more on the hydrologic aspects, see the
Hydrology section below. Raised PoPs into the high likely range
during the Friday afternoon and Friday early-evening period
associated with the front, and then decreasing to chance/slight
chance for late evening into the overnight. Forcing for ascent
owing to the negative tilt of the trough, a decent moisture axis
of PWATs between 1.2-1.4" and at least modest instability should
support a risk of localized heavy rainfall and I`ve included this
wording in Wx grids.

With the cloud cover that`s likely to be the case in the morning,
I`ve trended lower on the high temperatures than MOS guidance and
what 925 mb temps would otherwise support under full mixing. Using
a blend of cooler raw guidance, I`ve got highs in the 70s.
Likewise, look for temps to be slightly warmer than MOS
(particularly central/eastern VT) from the low/mid 50s for NY into
the mid/upper 50s for most of VT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 426 AM EDT Thursday...Saturday becomes our typical post
frontal regime with the upper low settling in over the area with
lowering heights, residual low level moisture and west to
northwest upslope flow allowing for showers, mainly across the
northern portion of the area closer to the upper low centered over
Quebec. It will be cool and breezy as well with highs only around
70 and northwest winds 15-25 mph.

Drier and Milder on Sunday although can`t rule out an isolated
shower along the canadian border on sunday afternoon. however dry
for any firework displays sunday night.

Monday(4th) will be dry and seasonably warm. Late morning
temperatures in the 60s/70s will be ideal for any parades.

Broad ridge over the central US sets up for the rest of the week.
a shortwave trough moves west to east in westerly flow but will
remain mainly south of the forecast area across southern NY and PA
on Tuesday. Weak ridge builds in for mid week with slightly
warmer than normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Through 18Z Friday...Surface high pressure in control with
VFR/FEW-SCT050 conditions through sunset, then mainly clear
tonight. Will see localized LIFR fog potential at MPV/SLK, mainly
06-11Z. Surface winds light through the remainder of today and
through tonight, becoming S 6-10kts mid to late morning Friday as
frontal system approaches from the Great Lakes region. Will see
increasing VFR cloudiness by late morning Friday, with development
of isold shower/tstm activity toward 17-18Z Friday mainly
Adirondacks/St. Lawrence Valley, and possibly s-central VT (with
further increase in precipitation coverage north and east later in
the afternoon/evening). Since potential precipitation is right at
the end of the current TAF period, and most likely after 18Z, have
left out mention ATTM.

Outlook 18z Friday through Tuesday...
18Z Friday through 03Z Saturday...Numerous showers and thunderstorms
expected across the North Country bringing heavy downpours/cloud-to-
ground lightning, and potential for small hail and/or gusty winds
with any strong to severe cells. For affected TAF sites,
intervals of MVFR to IFR conditions possible for 30-60 minutes
during t-storm activity, mainly mid-afternoon through early
evening.

03Z Saturday through 12z Saturday...Areas of MVFR ceilings possible
(mainly SLK/MPV) with westerly wind shift following frontal passage
late Friday evening. Isold rain showers possible during Friday
night, diminishing toward daybreak Saturday.

12Z Saturday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR through the period. Broad
upper trough brings a chance of light rain showers across the
northern mountains and International border area during the daylight
hours Saturday. LIFR possible in fog MPV/SLK early Monday and
Tuesday A.M., mainly 06-11Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 140 PM Thursday...Will be monitoring the potential for
heavy downpours Friday afternoon and evening associated with the
anticipated widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms. Strong
QG dynamics (700-500mb vort axis moving SW to NE across the
region) and associated surface front will move into environment
across the North Country with MLCAPE values generally 500-1000
J/kg, and moderate PW axis of 1.3 to 1.5" during the mid afternoon
through early evening hours. The mid-level trough is progressive
in moderately strong swly flow, which may limit duration of
heavier downpours in most locations. However, some indication of
backbuilding potential of storms with MBE vectors NE at 5-10kts
per NAM model soundings across central/nrn VT. So, will need to
monitor for training cells as convective evolution occurs. Areas
such as Franklin and western parts of Clinton County in NY as well
as the northern VT counties of Orleans, Caledonia and Essex
Counties would be slightly more vulnerable to flash flooding,
given antecedent saturated soil conditions from rainfall past 2-3
days. Main stem river flooding is not currently expected.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Loconto
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Banacos
HYDROLOGY...Loconto/Banacos




000
FXUS61 KALY 301756
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
156 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate our weather through tonight with fair
weather and seasonably warm temperatures. A cold front will
approach and cross the region Friday and Friday night triggering
showers and thunderstorms. In the wake of the front, fair weather
is expected for the rest of the long holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 100 PM EDT...Delightful early summer afternoon with diurnal
cumulus (mainly concentrated across the higher terrain) and valley
temperatures at or just above 80F. H2O vapor loop reveals a short
wave with limited moisture approaching western New York. This may
increase some of the higher cirrus clouds later on. Otherwise,
minor tweaks to the grids per observational trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Short wave energy rotating about an upper low in the vicinity of
southern Hudson Bay will result in height falls across the region
tonight into Friday night. At the surface, a cold front will be on
the approach during the day and is expected to cross the local
area Friday night. Dew points will rise into the upper 50s to mid
60s in the southwesterly flow ahead of the front. The atmosphere
will become unstable with CAPE values of 500-1500 J/KG expected
for the afternoon into the evening. Guidance has unidirectional
mid level flow of 30 to 40 knots across the area. The Storm Prediction
Center has maintained a Marginal outlook for the development of
severe thunderstorms Friday. Have not added any enhanced wording
to the forecast at this time. Will continue to mention in our
Hazardous Weather Outlook that a few strong to possibly severe
storms are possible.

The low becomes stacked and will move gradually eastward across
eastern Canada through Saturday night. Ridging will build in at
the surface and in the lower levels of the atmosphere; while
heights aloft holds fairly steady on the southern periphery of
the low. Any chances for showers are expected to be limited to the
far northern portion the the forecast area. It will be cooler
Saturday in the wake of the cold front with highs ranging from the
mid 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An upper level trough over Quebec will continue to move away from
the region on Sunday.  This feature looks to be far enough away to
keep it dry across the region on Sunday, with a partly to mostly
sunny sky. Temps look close to seasonal normals with highs in the
upper 70s to low 80s and humidity levels will continue to be fairly
comfortable for early July. Lows on Sunday night will generally be
in the 50s (some upper 40s over the central Adirondacks).

Heights will start rise somewhat on Monday, as the upper level
trough lifts towards Labrador and the flow aloft becomes more zonal
over the region.  Our region will be located within the westerlies
on the northern edge of a large ridge expanding across the CONUS. It
should continue to stay dry for Monday (Independence Day), but temps
look a little warmer, with low to mid 80s for many areas. Sky cover
will continue to be fairly clear to partly cloudy.  Overnight lows
will be in the mid 50s to low 60s.

There are some questions regarding the forecast for the middle of
the week.  While the previous guidance was fairly dry and current
runs of the 00z ECMWF, along with most members of the 00Z GEFS,
continue to be dry, the 00z GFS and 00Z GGEM show a disturbance
moving towards the area from the Ohio Valley along a stalled frontal
boundary for Tuesday with some showers and thunderstorms. For now,
will generally only go with slight chc pops for showers, as the
majority of guidance continues to keep any precip along the stalled
front generally south of the region over the mid-Atlantic states.
Temps will continue to be in the mid 80s with lows in the 60s for
Tuesday.

Whether or not our area is impacted by that system on Tuesday,most
models continue to show building heights and temps aloft for the
remainder of the week. This would allow warmer temps (upper 80s for
valley areas) to move into the region for Wednesday and beyond, with
rising levels of humidity as well. It still continue to look dry
until a northern stream frontal boundary can arrive at some point
during the late week period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will be over the Northeast this afternoon into
tonight. A cold front and an upper level disturbance will approach
from the eastern Great Lakes Region and southeast Canada late
tomorrow morning into the afternoon with scattered showers and
thunderstorms increasing ahead of the front.

VFR conditions will mainly continue the next 24 hours ending
18Z/FRI. A few-sct fair wx cumulus...and a few-sct cirrus will
persist this afternoon into early this evening. Mid and high
clouds will increase from the south and west tonight. There is a
small chance for MVFR/IFR radiational mist/fog at KPSF btwn 07Z-
12Z. Our confidence is not high with the increasing clouds...so a
narrow window of perhaps brief MVFR mist is possible. Sct-Bkn mid
level clouds in the 6-8 kft AGL will be common across the region
after 12Z/FRI.

The winds will be variable in direction at 5-10 kts or less this
afternoon...and will become calm tonight...except at KALB that
southerly winds may persist in the 4-8 kt range tonight. The winds
will increase from the south at 5-10 kts in the late morning
tomorrow ahead of the front.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday to Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Minimum relatives humidity values will be in the 30s this
afternoon...

High pressure will dominate our weather through tonight with fair
weather, seasonably warm temperatures and light winds. A cold front
will approach and cross the region Friday and Friday night triggering
showers and thunderstorms. In the wake of the front, fair weather
is expected for the rest of the long holiday weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Hydrological problems are not anticipated over the next several
days. Dry weather today and tonight. A cold front will approach
and cross the region Friday and Friday night with showers and
thunderstorms are expected across the local area. Fair weather is
then expected for the rest of the long holiday weekend.

The latest drought monitor released last week has most of our region
labeled Abnormally Dry. Abnormally dry indicates dryness but not yet
in drought.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/Wasula
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301741
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
141 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control across the North Country this
evening and overnight with mainly clear skies and light winds. A
frontal system approaching from the Great Lakes region will bring
widespread showers with embedded thunderstorm activity Friday
afternoon into Friday evening. A few strong to severe storms are
possible with small hail, gusty winds, and heavy downpours. The
frontal system ushers in cooler air for Saturday, with high
temperatures only in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A few showers are
also possible across the Northern Mountains on Saturday.
Increasing sunshine and dry conditions are forecast for Sunday and
the Independence Day holiday.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 134 PM EDT Thursday...Weak surface high pressure over the
eastern Great Lakes bringing tranquil conditions with mostly sunny
and dry conditions. 2-meter dewpoints have dropped 5-10 degrees
compared to 24 hours ago, and are mainly in the 50s. Will see fair
wx cumulus clouds dotting the higher terrain through the
afternoon with high temperatures mainly in the upper 70s to lower
80s. PoPs NIL.

High pressure will still remain in control tonight and the overall
theme of clear skies and light winds will continue, though some
high clouds will begin to approach from the south and west toward
early morning Friday. Possibility of nighttime fog again in the
fog-prone river valleys, however I didn`t include in the Wx grids
as we`ll be a day or two removed from the better soil moisture
flux from the earlier rainfall this week. Lows should be similar
to this morning...in the upper 40s for the Adirondacks to the
upper 50s/around 60 in the Champlain Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 426 AM EDT Thursday...More active weather then develops for
Friday into Friday evening, as a negatively-tilted 500 mb
shortwave trough and cold front/occlusion sweep across the region.
Models are in generally good agreement on timing of the
rain/storms, though the 00z ECMWF is a bit slower than
NAM/SREF/GFS. Sided closer to the latter, faster guidance. Expect
gradually lowering cloud cover to develop and move northward into
the Friday morning hours, which will serve to really limit the
degree of afternoon surface-based instability and low-level lapse
rates to CAPE values at or below 1000 J/kg. In addition, 25-35 kts
of BL-6 km effective shear may support a few organized cells but
isn`t overly impressive. While SPC`s SWODY2 maintains a Marginal
Risk/5% combined severe probabilities, agree with prior forecast
thinking that severe is looking to be less of a factor over the
hydro aspect. For more on the hydrologic aspects, see the
Hydrology section below. Raised PoPs into the high likely range
during the Friday afternoon and Friday early-evening period
associated with the front, and then decreasing to chance/slight
chance for late evening into the overnight. Forcing for ascent
owing to the negative tilt of the trough, a decent moisture axis
of PWATs between 1.2-1.4" and at least modest instability should
support a risk of localized heavy rainfall and I`ve included this
wording in Wx grids.

With the cloud cover that`s likely to be the case in the morning,
I`ve trended lower on the high temperatures than MOS guidance and
what 925 mb temps would otherwise support under full mixing. Using
a blend of cooler raw guidance, I`ve got highs in the 70s.
Likewise, look for temps to be slightly warmer than MOS
(particularly central/eastern VT) from the low/mid 50s for NY into
the mid/upper 50s for most of VT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 426 AM EDT Thursday...Saturday becomes our typical post
frontal regime with the upper low settling in over the area with
lowering heights, residual low level moisture and west to
northwest upslope flow allowing for showers, mainly across the
northern portion of the area closer to the upper low centered over
Quebec. It will be cool and breezy as well with highs only around
70 and northwest winds 15-25 mph.

Drier and Milder on Sunday although can`t rule out an isolated
shower along the canadian border on sunday afternoon. however dry
for any firework displays sunday night.

Monday(4th) will be dry and seasonably warm. Late morning
temperatures in the 60s/70s will be ideal for any parades.

Broad ridge over the central US sets up for the rest of the week.
a shortwave trough moves west to east in westerly flow but will
remain mainly south of the forecast area across southern NY and PA
on Tuesday. Weak ridge builds in for mid week with slightly
warmer than normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Through 18Z Friday...Surface high pressure in control with
VFR/FEW-SCT050 conditions through sunset, then mainly clear
tonight. Will see localized LIFR fog potential at MPV/SLK, mainly
06-11Z. Surface winds light through the remainder of today and
through tonight, becoming S 6-10kts mid to late morning Friday as
frontal system approaches from the Great Lakes region. Will see
increasing VFR cloudiness by late morning Friday, with development
of isold shower/tstm activity toward 17-18Z Friday mainly
Adirondacks/St. Lawrence Valley, and possibly s-central VT (with
further increase in precipitation coverage north and east later in
the afternoon/evening). Since potential precipitation is right at
the end of the current TAF period, and most likely after 18Z, have
left out mention ATTM.

Outlook 18z Friday through Tuesday...
18Z Friday through 03Z Saturday...Numerous showers and thunderstorms
expected across the North Country bringing heavy downpours/cloud-to-
ground lightning, and potential for small hail and/or gusty winds
with any strong to severe cells. For affected TAF sites,
intervals of MVFR to IFR conditions possible for 30-60 minutes
during t-storm activity, mainly mid-afternoon through early
evening.

03Z Saturday through 12z Saturday...Areas of MVFR ceilings possible
(mainly SLK/MPV) with westerly wind shift following frontal passage
late Friday evening. Isold rain showers possible during Friday
night, diminishing toward daybreak Saturday.

12Z Saturday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR through the period. Broad
upper trough brings a chance of light rain showers across the
northern mountains and International border area during the daylight
hours Saturday. LIFR possible in fog MPV/SLK early Monday and
Tuesday A.M., mainly 06-11Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 140 PM Thursday...Will be monitoring the potential for
heavy downpours Friday afternoon and evening associated with the
anticipated widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms. Strong
QG dynamics (700-500mb vort axis moving SW to NE across the
region) and associated surface front will move into environment
across the North Country with MLCAPE values generally 500-1000
J/kg, and moderate PW axis of 1.3 to 1.5" during the mid afternoon
through early evening hours. The mid-level trough is progressive
in moderately strong swly flow, which may limit duration of
heavier downpours in most locations. However, some indication of
backbuilding potential of storms with MBE vectors NE at 5-10kts
per NAM model soundings across central/nrn VT. So, will need to
monitor for training cells as convective evolution occurs. Areas
such as Franklin and western parts of Clinton County in NY as well
as the northern VT counties of Orleans, Caledonia and Essex
Counties would be slightly more vulnerable to flash flooding,
given antecedent saturated soil conditions from rainfall past 2-3
days. Main stem river flooding is not currently expected.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Loconto
SHORT TERM...Loconto
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Banacos
HYDROLOGY...Loconto/Banacos




000
FXUS61 KALY 301724
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
124 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate our weather through tonight with fair
weather and seasonably warm temperatures. A cold front will
approach and cross the region Friday and Friday night triggering
showers and thunderstorms. In the wake of the front, fair weather
is expected for the rest of the long holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 100 PM EDT...Delightful early summer afternoon with diurnal
cumulus (mainly concentrated across the higher terrain) and valley
temperatures at or just above 80F. H2O vapor loop reveals a short
wave with limited moisture approaching western New York. This may
increase some of the higher cirrus clouds later on. Otherwise,
minor tweaks to the grids per observational trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Short wave energy rotating about an upper low in the vicinity of
southern Hudson Bay will result in height falls across the region
tonight into Friday night. At the surface, a cold front will be on
the approach during the day and is expected to cross the local
area Friday night. Dew points will rise into the upper 50s to mid
60s in the southwesterly flow ahead of the front. The atmosphere
will become unstable with CAPE values of 500-1500 J/KG expected
for the afternoon into the evening. Guidance has unidirectional
mid level flow of 30 to 40 knots across the area. The Storm Prediction
Center has maintained a Marginal outlook for the development of
severe thunderstorms Friday. Have not added any enhanced wording
to the forecast at this time. Will continue to mention in our
Hazardous Weather Outlook that a few strong to possibly severe
storms are possible.

The low becomes stacked and will move gradually eastward across
eastern Canada through Saturday night. Ridging will build in at
the surface and in the lower levels of the atmosphere; while
heights aloft holds fairly steady on the southern periphery of
the low. Any chances for showers are expected to be limited to the
far northern portion the the forecast area. It will be cooler
Saturday in the wake of the cold front with highs ranging from the
mid 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An upper level trough over Quebec will continue to move away from
the region on Sunday.  This feature looks to be far enough away to
keep it dry across the region on Sunday, with a partly to mostly
sunny sky. Temps look close to seasonal normals with highs in the
upper 70s to low 80s and humidity levels will continue to be fairly
comfortable for early July. Lows on Sunday night will generally be
in the 50s (some upper 40s over the central Adirondacks).

Heights will start rise somewhat on Monday, as the upper level
trough lifts towards Labrador and the flow aloft becomes more zonal
over the region.  Our region will be located within the westerlies
on the northern edge of a large ridge expanding across the CONUS. It
should continue to stay dry for Monday (Independence Day), but temps
look a little warmer, with low to mid 80s for many areas. Sky cover
will continue to be fairly clear to partly cloudy.  Overnight lows
will be in the mid 50s to low 60s.

There are some questions regarding the forecast for the middle of
the week.  While the previous guidance was fairly dry and current
runs of the 00z ECMWF, along with most members of the 00Z GEFS,
continue to be dry, the 00z GFS and 00Z GGEM show a disturbance
moving towards the area from the Ohio Valley along a stalled frontal
boundary for Tuesday with some showers and thunderstorms. For now,
will generally only go with slight chc pops for showers, as the
majority of guidance continues to keep any precip along the stalled
front generally south of the region over the mid-Atlantic states.
Temps will continue to be in the mid 80s with lows in the 60s for
Tuesday.

Whether or not our area is impacted by that system on Tuesday,most
models continue to show building heights and temps aloft for the
remainder of the week. This would allow warmer temps (upper 80s for
valley areas) to move into the region for Wednesday and beyond, with
rising levels of humidity as well. It still continue to look dry
until a northern stream frontal boundary can arrive at some point
during the late week period.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IR satellite imagery shows clear skies over the region. There
have been a few pockets of fog and mist this morning (mainly
around KGFL), but with sunrise having already occurred, any
lingering fog or mist should quickly dissipate.

During the day today, VFR conditions will be in place for all
sites with just some passing cirrus and few-sct diurnal cu (mainly over
the higher terrain). Light west to southwest winds will be around
5 kts.

Winds look to go calm this evening into tonight for all sites
with continued VFR conditions. Cirrus clouds will continue to
increase and become bkn at 25 kft for the overnight hours for all
sites. There may be some bkn mid level clouds by the late night
hours as well.

Outlook...

Friday through Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance
of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday through Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Minimum relatives humidity values will be in the 30s this
afternoon...

High pressure will dominate our weather through tonight with fair
weather, seasonably warm temperatures and light winds. A cold front
will approach and cross the region Friday and Friday night triggering
showers and thunderstorms. In the wake of the front, fair weather
is expected for the rest of the long holiday weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Hydrological problems are not anticipated over the next several
days. Dry weather today and tonight. A cold front will approach
and cross the region Friday and Friday night with showers and
thunderstorms are expected across the local area. Fair weather is
then expected for the rest of the long holiday weekend.

The latest drought monitor released last week has most of our region
labeled Abnormally Dry. Abnormally dry indicates dryness but not yet
in drought.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/Wasula
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis/Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 301410
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1010 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate our weather through tonight with fair
weather and seasonably warm temperatures. A cold front will
approach and cross the region Friday and Friday night triggering
showers and thunderstorms. In the wake of the front, fair weather
is expected for the rest of the long holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS of 1010 AM EDT...High pressure will continue to ridge in from
the south today with fair and dry weather. The strong subsidence
from the anticyclone will continue to yield sunny/mostly sunny
conditions with temps near normal to slightly above normal. Highs
this afternoon are expected to top out from the mid 70s to mid
80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Short wave energy rotating about an upper low in the vicinity of
southern Hudson Bay will result in height falls across the region
tonight into Friday night. At the surface, a cold front will be on
the approach during the day and is expected to cross the local
area Friday night. Dew points will rise into the upper 50s to mid
60s in the southwesterly flow ahead of the front. The atmosphere
will become unstable with CAPE values of 500-1500 J/KG expected
for the afternoon into the evening. Guidance has unidirectional
mid level flow of 30 to 40 knots across the area. The Storm Prediction
Center has maintained a Marginal outlook for the development of
severe thunderstorms Friday. Have not added any enhanced wording
to the forecast at this time. Will continue to mention in our
Hazardous Weather Outlook that a few strong to possibly severe
storms are possible.

The low becomes stacked and will move gradually eastward across
eastern Canada through Saturday night. Ridging will build in at
the surface and in the lower levels of the atmosphere; while
heights aloft holds fairly steady on the southern periphery of
the low. Any chances for showers are expected to be limited to the
far northern portion the the forecast area. It will be cooler
Saturday in the wake of the cold front with highs ranging from the
mid 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An upper level trough over Quebec will continue to move away from
the region on Sunday.  This feature looks to be far enough away to
keep it dry across the region on Sunday, with a partly to mostly
sunny sky. Temps look close to seasonal normals with highs in the
upper 70s to low 80s and humidity levels will continue to be fairly
comfortable for early July. Lows on Sunday night will generally be
in the 50s (some upper 40s over the central Adirondacks).

Heights will start rise somewhat on Monday, as the upper level
trough lifts towards Labrador and the flow aloft becomes more zonal
over the region.  Our region will be located within the westerlies
on the northern edge of a large ridge expanding across the CONUS. It
should continue to stay dry for Monday (Independence Day), but temps
look a little warmer, with low to mid 80s for many areas. Sky cover
will continue to be fairly clear to partly cloudy.  Overnight lows
will be in the mid 50s to low 60s.

There are some questions regarding the forecast for the middle of
the week.  While the previous guidance was fairly dry and current
runs of the 00z ECMWF, along with most members of the 00Z GEFS,
continue to be dry, the 00z GFS and 00Z GGEM show a disturbance
moving towards the area from the Ohio Valley along a stalled frontal
boundary for Tuesday with some showers and thunderstorms. For now,
will generally only go with slight chc pops for showers, as the
majority of guidance continues to keep any precip along the stalled
front generally south of the region over the mid-Atlantic states.
Temps will continue to be in the mid 80s with lows in the 60s for
Tuesday.

Whether or not our area is impacted by that system on Tuesday,most
models continue to show building heights and temps aloft for the
remainder of the week. This would allow warmer temps (upper 80s for
valley areas) to move into the region for Wednesday and beyond, with
rising levels of humidity as well. It still continue to look dry
until a northern stream frontal boundary can arrive at some point
during the late week period.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IR satellite imagery shows clear skies over the region. There
have been a few pockets of fog and mist this morning (mainly
around KGFL), but with sunrise having already occurred, any
lingering fog or mist should quickly dissipate.

During the day today, VFR conditions will be in place for all
sites with just some passing cirrus and few-sct diurnal cu (mainly over
the higher terrain). Light west to southwest winds will be around
5 kts.

Winds look to go calm this evening into tonight for all sites
with continued VFR conditions. Cirrus clouds will continue to
increase and become bkn at 25 kft for the overnight hours for all
sites. There may be some bkn mid level clouds by the late night
hours as well.

Outlook...

Friday through Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance
of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday through Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     Minimum relatives humidity values will be in the 30s this
afternoon...

High pressure will dominate our weather through tonight with fair
weather, seasonably warm temperatures and light winds. A cold front
will approach and cross the region Friday and Friday night triggering
showers and thunderstorms. In the wake of the front, fair weather
is expected for the rest of the long holiday weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Hydrological problems are not anticipated over the next several
days. Dry weather today and tonight. A cold front will approach
and cross the region Friday and Friday night with showers and
thunderstorms are expected across the local area. Fair weather is
then expected for the rest of the long holiday weekend.

The latest drought monitor released last week has most of our region
labeled Abnormally Dry. Abnormally dry indicates dryness but not yet
in drought.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/Wasula
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 301410
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1010 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate our weather through tonight with fair
weather and seasonably warm temperatures. A cold front will
approach and cross the region Friday and Friday night triggering
showers and thunderstorms. In the wake of the front, fair weather
is expected for the rest of the long holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS of 1010 AM EDT...High pressure will continue to ridge in from
the south today with fair and dry weather. The strong subsidence
from the anticyclone will continue to yield sunny/mostly sunny
conditions with temps near normal to slightly above normal. Highs
this afternoon are expected to top out from the mid 70s to mid
80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Short wave energy rotating about an upper low in the vicinity of
southern Hudson Bay will result in height falls across the region
tonight into Friday night. At the surface, a cold front will be on
the approach during the day and is expected to cross the local
area Friday night. Dew points will rise into the upper 50s to mid
60s in the southwesterly flow ahead of the front. The atmosphere
will become unstable with CAPE values of 500-1500 J/KG expected
for the afternoon into the evening. Guidance has unidirectional
mid level flow of 30 to 40 knots across the area. The Storm Prediction
Center has maintained a Marginal outlook for the development of
severe thunderstorms Friday. Have not added any enhanced wording
to the forecast at this time. Will continue to mention in our
Hazardous Weather Outlook that a few strong to possibly severe
storms are possible.

The low becomes stacked and will move gradually eastward across
eastern Canada through Saturday night. Ridging will build in at
the surface and in the lower levels of the atmosphere; while
heights aloft holds fairly steady on the southern periphery of
the low. Any chances for showers are expected to be limited to the
far northern portion the the forecast area. It will be cooler
Saturday in the wake of the cold front with highs ranging from the
mid 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An upper level trough over Quebec will continue to move away from
the region on Sunday.  This feature looks to be far enough away to
keep it dry across the region on Sunday, with a partly to mostly
sunny sky. Temps look close to seasonal normals with highs in the
upper 70s to low 80s and humidity levels will continue to be fairly
comfortable for early July. Lows on Sunday night will generally be
in the 50s (some upper 40s over the central Adirondacks).

Heights will start rise somewhat on Monday, as the upper level
trough lifts towards Labrador and the flow aloft becomes more zonal
over the region.  Our region will be located within the westerlies
on the northern edge of a large ridge expanding across the CONUS. It
should continue to stay dry for Monday (Independence Day), but temps
look a little warmer, with low to mid 80s for many areas. Sky cover
will continue to be fairly clear to partly cloudy.  Overnight lows
will be in the mid 50s to low 60s.

There are some questions regarding the forecast for the middle of
the week.  While the previous guidance was fairly dry and current
runs of the 00z ECMWF, along with most members of the 00Z GEFS,
continue to be dry, the 00z GFS and 00Z GGEM show a disturbance
moving towards the area from the Ohio Valley along a stalled frontal
boundary for Tuesday with some showers and thunderstorms. For now,
will generally only go with slight chc pops for showers, as the
majority of guidance continues to keep any precip along the stalled
front generally south of the region over the mid-Atlantic states.
Temps will continue to be in the mid 80s with lows in the 60s for
Tuesday.

Whether or not our area is impacted by that system on Tuesday,most
models continue to show building heights and temps aloft for the
remainder of the week. This would allow warmer temps (upper 80s for
valley areas) to move into the region for Wednesday and beyond, with
rising levels of humidity as well. It still continue to look dry
until a northern stream frontal boundary can arrive at some point
during the late week period.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IR satellite imagery shows clear skies over the region. There
have been a few pockets of fog and mist this morning (mainly
around KGFL), but with sunrise having already occurred, any
lingering fog or mist should quickly dissipate.

During the day today, VFR conditions will be in place for all
sites with just some passing cirrus and few-sct diurnal cu (mainly over
the higher terrain). Light west to southwest winds will be around
5 kts.

Winds look to go calm this evening into tonight for all sites
with continued VFR conditions. Cirrus clouds will continue to
increase and become bkn at 25 kft for the overnight hours for all
sites. There may be some bkn mid level clouds by the late night
hours as well.

Outlook...

Friday through Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance
of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday through Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     Minimum relatives humidity values will be in the 30s this
afternoon...

High pressure will dominate our weather through tonight with fair
weather, seasonably warm temperatures and light winds. A cold front
will approach and cross the region Friday and Friday night triggering
showers and thunderstorms. In the wake of the front, fair weather
is expected for the rest of the long holiday weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Hydrological problems are not anticipated over the next several
days. Dry weather today and tonight. A cold front will approach
and cross the region Friday and Friday night with showers and
thunderstorms are expected across the local area. Fair weather is
then expected for the rest of the long holiday weekend.

The latest drought monitor released last week has most of our region
labeled Abnormally Dry. Abnormally dry indicates dryness but not yet
in drought.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/Wasula
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301407
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1007 AM EDT Thu Jun 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control across the North Country through
tonight, with warm daytime temperatures and comfortable humidity
levels. A potent upper-level system on Friday will lead to a
period of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening.
A few stronger thunderstorms are possible, but the main risk would
be from localized heavy rain. Cooler than normal temperatures with
limited chances for showers to start Independence Day weekend, but
turning sunny and dry for Sunday and the Independence Day
holiday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 949 AM EDT Thursday...Weak surface high pressure over the
eastern Great Lakes bringing tranquil conditions with mostly sunny
and dry conditions. 2-meter dewpoints have dropped 5-10 degrees
compared to 24 hours ago, and are mainly in the 50s. Will see fair
wx cumulus clouds dotting the higher terrain thru the afternoon
with high temperatures mainly in the upper 70s to lower 80s. PoPs
nil.

High pressure will still remain in control tonight and the overall
theme of clear skies and light winds will continue, though some
high clouds will begin to approach from the south and west toward
early morning Friday. Possibility of nighttime fog again in the
fog-prone river valleys, however I didn`t include in the Wx grids
as we`ll be a day or two removed from the better soil moisture
flux from the earlier rainfall this week. Lows should be similar
to this morning...in the upper 40s for the Adirondacks to the
upper 50s/around 60 in the Champlain Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 426 AM EDT Thursday...More active weather then develops for
Friday into Friday evening, as a negatively-tilted 500 mb
shortwave trough and cold front/occlusion sweep across the region.
Models are in generally good agreement on timing of the
rain/storms, though the 00z ECMWF is a bit slower than
NAM/SREF/GFS. Sided closer to the latter, faster guidance. Expect
gradually lowering cloud cover to develop and move northward into
the Friday morning hours, which will serve to really limit the
degree of afternoon surface-based instability and low-level lapse
rates to CAPE values at or below 1000 J/kg. In addition, 25-35 kts
of BL-6 km effective shear may support a few organized cells but
isn`t overly impressive. While SPC`s SWODY2 maintains a Marginal
Risk/5% combined severe probabilities, agree with prior forecast
thinking that severe is looking to be less of a factor over the
hydro aspect. For more on the hydrologic aspects, see the
Hydrology section below. Raised PoPs into the high likely range
during the Friday afternoon and Friday early-evening period
associated with the front, and then decreasing to chance/slight
chance for late evening into the overnight. Forcing for ascent
owing to the negative tilt of the trough, a decent moisture axis
of PWATs between 1.2-1.4" and at least modest instability should
support a risk of localized heavy rainfall and I`ve included this
wording in Wx grids.

With the cloud cover that`s likely to be the case in the morning,
I`ve trended lower on the high temperatures than MOS guidance and
what 925 mb temps would otherwise support under full mixing. Using
a blend of cooler raw guidance, I`ve got highs in the 70s.
Likewise, look for temps to be slightly warmer than MOS
(particularly central/eastern VT) from the low/mid 50s for NY into
the mid/upper 50s for most of VT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 426 AM EDT Thursday...Saturday becomes our typical post
frontal regime with the upper low settling in over the area with
lowering heights, residual low level moisture and west to
northwest upslope flow allowing for showers, mainly across the
northern portion of the area closer to the upper low centered over
Quebec. It will be cool and breezy as well with highs only around
70 and northwest winds 15-25 mph.

Drier and Milder on Sunday although can`t rule out an isolated
shower along the canadian border on sunday afternoon. however dry
for any firework displays sunday night.

Monday(4th) will be dry and seasonably warm. Late morning
temperatures in the 60s/70s will be ideal for any parades.

Broad ridge over the central US sets up for the rest of the week.
a shortwave trough moves west to east in westerly flow but will
remain mainly south of the forecast area across southern NY and PA
on Tuesday. Weak ridge builds in for mid week with slightly
warmer than normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Through 12Z Friday...Morning IFR to LIFR fog mainly at RUT and
SLK will erode quickly this morning going to VFR SKC conditions.
VFR SKC continues into this evening. While otherwise favorable
conditions, the drying air mass today and being more than 24 hrs
removed from wetting rainfall introduces some question if
LIFR/VLIFR radiation fog can develop overnight. I`ve left out of
the TAFs for now, but possible it may need to be introduced in
later TAF issuances. Winds light to calm and governed by lake
breeze/terrain influences.

Outlook 12z Friday through Monday...

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front brings scattered showers and possible thunderstorms during
Friday afternoon. Convective activity should move east of the
region and diminish Friday night.

12z Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR, except few -SHRA
possible nrn mountains Saturday aftn/early evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 426 AM Thursday...Will be monitoring the potential for
heavy downpours Friday afternoon and evening associated with
the anticipated widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms.
Strong QG dynamics (700-500mb vort axis moving SW to NE across
the region) and associated surface front will move into
environment across the North Country with MLCAPE values generally
500-1000 J/kg, and moderate PW axis of 1.3 to 1.5" during the mid
afternoon through early evening hours. The mid-level trough is
progressive in moderately strong swly flow, which may limit
duration of heavier downpours in most locations. However, some
indication of backbuilding potential of storms with MBE vectors NE
at 5-10kts per NAM model soundings across central/nrn VT. So, will
need to monitor for training cells as convective evolution occurs.
Areas such as Franklin and western parts of Clinton County in NY
as well as the northern VT counties of Orleans, Caledonia and
Essex Counties would be slightly more vulnerable to flash
flooding, given antecedent saturated soil conditions from rainfall
past 2-3 days. Main stem river flooding is not currently expected.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Loconto
SHORT TERM...Loconto
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Loconto
HYDROLOGY...Loconto/Banacos




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301105
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
705 AM EDT Thu Jun 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control across the North Country through
tonight, with warm daytime temperatures and comfortable humidity
levels. A potent upper-level system on Friday will lead to a
period of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening.
A few stronger thunderstorms are possible, but the main risk would
be from localized heavy rain. Cooler than normal temperatures with
limited chances for showers to start Independence Day weekend, but
turning sunny and dry for Sunday and the Independence Day
holiday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 705 AM EDT Thursday...Update to mainly account for current
observations and to lower dewpoints down some through mid-morning.
I did opt to keep patchy fog in the Wx grids through 12z but
strong sunshine will help to erode areas of fog or mist in short
order. Overall sunny with a few fair wx cumulus dotting the
mountains. Shaping up to be an outstanding day with highs topping
out in the mid 70s to lower 80s with very comfortable humidity
levels.

Previous discussion issued at 426 AM...

High pressure remains in control early this morning with broadly
cyclonic flow at mid-levels. Several areas this morning have seen
areas of patchy fog, but it has not proven to be as persistent or
as dense as initially thought. The coverage of mist or fog is
still greater than what typically happens, so morning drivers for
the commute should make sure to drive a bit slower if fog is
encountered. Fog should erode pretty quickly into the early/mid
morning hrs under strong sunshine. It should prove to be a stellar
day with clear skies and 925 mb temperatures around +19 to +21C
which should push highs into the upper 70s to lower/mid 80s today.
Very comfortable humidity levels as dewpoints initially in the mid
50s fall into the upper 40s as dry air is mixed down this
afternoon.

High pressure will still remain in control tonight and the overall
theme of clear skies and light winds will continue, though some
high clouds will begin to approach from the south and west toward
early morning Friday. Possibility of nighttime fog again in the
fog-prone river valleys, however I didn`t include in the Wx grids
as we`ll be a day or two removed from the better soil moisture
flux from the earlier rainfall this week. Lows should be similar
to this morning...in the upper 40s for the Adirondacks to the
upper 50s/around 60 in the Champlain Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 426 AM EDT Thursday...More active weather then develops for
Friday into Friday evening, as a negatively-tilted 500 mb
shortwave trough and cold front/occlusion sweep across the region.
Models are in generally good agreement on timing of the
rain/storms, though the 00z ECMWF is a bit slower than
NAM/SREF/GFS. Sided closer to the latter, faster guidance. Expect
gradually lowering cloud cover to develop and move northward into
the Friday morning hours, which will serve to really limit the
degree of afternoon surface-based instability and low-level lapse
rates to CAPE values at or below 1000 J/kg. In addition, 25-35 kts
of BL-6 km effective shear may support a few organized cells but
isn`t overly impressive. While SPC`s SWODY2 maintains a Marginal
Risk/5% combined severe probabilities, agree with prior forecast
thinking that severe is looking to be less of a factor over the
hydro aspect. For more on the hydrologic aspects, see the
Hydrology section below. Raised PoPs into the high likely range
during the Friday afternoon and Friday early-evening period
associated with the front, and then decreasing to chance/slight
chance for late evening into the overnight. Forcing for ascent
owing to the negative tilt of the trough, a decent moisture axis
of PWATs between 1.2-1.4" and at least modest instability should
support a risk of localized heavy rainfall and I`ve included this
wording in Wx grids.

With the cloud cover that`s likely to be the case in the morning,
I`ve trended lower on the high temperatures than MOS guidance and
what 925 mb temps would otherwise support under full mixing. Using
a blend of cooler raw guidance, I`ve got highs in the 70s.
Likewise, look for temps to be slightly warmer than MOS
(particularly central/eastern VT) from the low/mid 50s for NY into
the mid/upper 50s for most of VT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 426 AM EDT Thursday...Saturday becomes our typical post
frontal regime with the upper low settling in over the area with
lowering heights, residual low level moisture and west to
northwest upslope flow allowing for showers, mainly across the
northern portion of the area closer to the upper low centered over
Quebec. It will be cool and breezy as well with highs only around
70 and northwest winds 15-25 mph.

Drier and Milder on Sunday although can`t rule out an isolated
shower along the canadian border on sunday afternoon. however dry
for any firework displays sunday night.

Monday(4th) will be dry and seasonably warm. Late morning
temperatures in the 60s/70s will be ideal for any parades.

Broad ridge over the central US sets up for the rest of the week.
a shortwave trough moves west to east in westerly flow but will
remain mainly south of the forecast area across southern NY and PA
on Tuesday. Weak ridge builds in for mid week with slightly
warmer than normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Through 12Z Friday...Morning IFR to LIFR fog mainly at RUT and
SLK will erode quickly this morning going to VFR SKC conditions.
VFR SKC continues into this evening. While otherwise favorable
conditions, the drying air mass today and being more than 24 hrs
removed from wetting rainfall introduces some question if
LIFR/VLIFR radiation fog can develop overnight. I`ve left out of
the TAFs for now, but possible it may need to be introduced in
later TAF issuances. Winds light to calm and governed by lake
breeze/terrain influences.

Outlook 12z Friday through Monday...

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front brings scattered showers and possible thunderstorms during
Friday afternoon. Convective activity should move east of the
region and diminish Friday night.

12z Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR, except few -SHRA
possible nrn mountains Saturday aftn/early evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 426 AM Thursday...Potential for heavy rainfall on Friday
associated with strong frontal system that will move across the
region. Instability will be pretty limited on Friday afternoon
and evening due to morning cloud cover, but there should be at
least some risk of embedded thunderstorms to enhance rainfall.
These showers and embedded thunderstorms will be acting on an axis
of PWATs of around 1.2 to 1.4", relatively high but not excessive.
Another aspect is that the heaviest rain should be moving at a
fairly decent clip which would limit the potential duration
somewhat. Forecast QPF for Friday is less than 0.75", higher in
more persistent thunderstorms.

Still think there is a need to watch for localized heavy rainers
capable of flash flooding over small areas. Areas such as Franklin
and western parts of Clinton County in NY as well as the northern
VT counties of Orleans, Caledonia and Essex Counties would be
slightly more vulnerable to flash flooding. Each of these areas
saw heavy rain these on Tuesday and would need to be watched.
Main-stem river flooding is not currently expected.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...Loconto
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Loconto
HYDROLOGY...Loconto




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301105
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
705 AM EDT Thu Jun 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control across the North Country through
tonight, with warm daytime temperatures and comfortable humidity
levels. A potent upper-level system on Friday will lead to a
period of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening.
A few stronger thunderstorms are possible, but the main risk would
be from localized heavy rain. Cooler than normal temperatures with
limited chances for showers to start Independence Day weekend, but
turning sunny and dry for Sunday and the Independence Day
holiday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 705 AM EDT Thursday...Update to mainly account for current
observations and to lower dewpoints down some through mid-morning.
I did opt to keep patchy fog in the Wx grids through 12z but
strong sunshine will help to erode areas of fog or mist in short
order. Overall sunny with a few fair wx cumulus dotting the
mountains. Shaping up to be an outstanding day with highs topping
out in the mid 70s to lower 80s with very comfortable humidity
levels.

Previous discussion issued at 426 AM...

High pressure remains in control early this morning with broadly
cyclonic flow at mid-levels. Several areas this morning have seen
areas of patchy fog, but it has not proven to be as persistent or
as dense as initially thought. The coverage of mist or fog is
still greater than what typically happens, so morning drivers for
the commute should make sure to drive a bit slower if fog is
encountered. Fog should erode pretty quickly into the early/mid
morning hrs under strong sunshine. It should prove to be a stellar
day with clear skies and 925 mb temperatures around +19 to +21C
which should push highs into the upper 70s to lower/mid 80s today.
Very comfortable humidity levels as dewpoints initially in the mid
50s fall into the upper 40s as dry air is mixed down this
afternoon.

High pressure will still remain in control tonight and the overall
theme of clear skies and light winds will continue, though some
high clouds will begin to approach from the south and west toward
early morning Friday. Possibility of nighttime fog again in the
fog-prone river valleys, however I didn`t include in the Wx grids
as we`ll be a day or two removed from the better soil moisture
flux from the earlier rainfall this week. Lows should be similar
to this morning...in the upper 40s for the Adirondacks to the
upper 50s/around 60 in the Champlain Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 426 AM EDT Thursday...More active weather then develops for
Friday into Friday evening, as a negatively-tilted 500 mb
shortwave trough and cold front/occlusion sweep across the region.
Models are in generally good agreement on timing of the
rain/storms, though the 00z ECMWF is a bit slower than
NAM/SREF/GFS. Sided closer to the latter, faster guidance. Expect
gradually lowering cloud cover to develop and move northward into
the Friday morning hours, which will serve to really limit the
degree of afternoon surface-based instability and low-level lapse
rates to CAPE values at or below 1000 J/kg. In addition, 25-35 kts
of BL-6 km effective shear may support a few organized cells but
isn`t overly impressive. While SPC`s SWODY2 maintains a Marginal
Risk/5% combined severe probabilities, agree with prior forecast
thinking that severe is looking to be less of a factor over the
hydro aspect. For more on the hydrologic aspects, see the
Hydrology section below. Raised PoPs into the high likely range
during the Friday afternoon and Friday early-evening period
associated with the front, and then decreasing to chance/slight
chance for late evening into the overnight. Forcing for ascent
owing to the negative tilt of the trough, a decent moisture axis
of PWATs between 1.2-1.4" and at least modest instability should
support a risk of localized heavy rainfall and I`ve included this
wording in Wx grids.

With the cloud cover that`s likely to be the case in the morning,
I`ve trended lower on the high temperatures than MOS guidance and
what 925 mb temps would otherwise support under full mixing. Using
a blend of cooler raw guidance, I`ve got highs in the 70s.
Likewise, look for temps to be slightly warmer than MOS
(particularly central/eastern VT) from the low/mid 50s for NY into
the mid/upper 50s for most of VT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 426 AM EDT Thursday...Saturday becomes our typical post
frontal regime with the upper low settling in over the area with
lowering heights, residual low level moisture and west to
northwest upslope flow allowing for showers, mainly across the
northern portion of the area closer to the upper low centered over
Quebec. It will be cool and breezy as well with highs only around
70 and northwest winds 15-25 mph.

Drier and Milder on Sunday although can`t rule out an isolated
shower along the canadian border on sunday afternoon. however dry
for any firework displays sunday night.

Monday(4th) will be dry and seasonably warm. Late morning
temperatures in the 60s/70s will be ideal for any parades.

Broad ridge over the central US sets up for the rest of the week.
a shortwave trough moves west to east in westerly flow but will
remain mainly south of the forecast area across southern NY and PA
on Tuesday. Weak ridge builds in for mid week with slightly
warmer than normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Through 12Z Friday...Morning IFR to LIFR fog mainly at RUT and
SLK will erode quickly this morning going to VFR SKC conditions.
VFR SKC continues into this evening. While otherwise favorable
conditions, the drying air mass today and being more than 24 hrs
removed from wetting rainfall introduces some question if
LIFR/VLIFR radiation fog can develop overnight. I`ve left out of
the TAFs for now, but possible it may need to be introduced in
later TAF issuances. Winds light to calm and governed by lake
breeze/terrain influences.

Outlook 12z Friday through Monday...

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front brings scattered showers and possible thunderstorms during
Friday afternoon. Convective activity should move east of the
region and diminish Friday night.

12z Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR, except few -SHRA
possible nrn mountains Saturday aftn/early evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 426 AM Thursday...Potential for heavy rainfall on Friday
associated with strong frontal system that will move across the
region. Instability will be pretty limited on Friday afternoon
and evening due to morning cloud cover, but there should be at
least some risk of embedded thunderstorms to enhance rainfall.
These showers and embedded thunderstorms will be acting on an axis
of PWATs of around 1.2 to 1.4", relatively high but not excessive.
Another aspect is that the heaviest rain should be moving at a
fairly decent clip which would limit the potential duration
somewhat. Forecast QPF for Friday is less than 0.75", higher in
more persistent thunderstorms.

Still think there is a need to watch for localized heavy rainers
capable of flash flooding over small areas. Areas such as Franklin
and western parts of Clinton County in NY as well as the northern
VT counties of Orleans, Caledonia and Essex Counties would be
slightly more vulnerable to flash flooding. Each of these areas
saw heavy rain these on Tuesday and would need to be watched.
Main-stem river flooding is not currently expected.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...Loconto
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Loconto
HYDROLOGY...Loconto




000
FXUS61 KALY 301027
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
627 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate our weather through tonight with fair
weather and seasonably warm temperatures. A cold front will
approach and cross the region Friday and Friday night triggering
showers and thunderstorms. In the wake of the front, fair weather
is expected for the rest of the long holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Today will feature fair weather with seasonably warm temperatures
and light winds. Ridging will build in at the surface and in the
lower levels of the atmosphere. While aloft, the region will be
between short wave troughs. Highs this afternoon are expected to
top out from the mid 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Short wave energy rotating about an upper low in the vicinity of
southern Hudson Bay will result in height falls across the region
tonight into Friday night. At the surface, a cold front will be on
the approach during the day and is expected to cross the local
area Friday night. Dew points will rise into the upper 50s to mid
60s in the southwesterly flow ahead of the front. The atmosphere
will become unstable with CAPE values of 500-1500 J/KG expected
for the afternoon into the evening. Guidance has unidirectional
mid level flow of 30 to 40 knots across the area. The Storm Prediction
Center has maintained a Marginal outlook for the development of
severe thunderstorms Friday. Have not added any enhanced wording
to the forecast at this time. Will continue to mention in our
Hazardous Weather Outlook that a few strong to possibly severe
storms are possible.

The low becomes stacked and will move gradually eastward across
eastern Canada through Saturday night. Ridging will build in at
the surface and in the lower levels of the atmosphere; while
heights aloft holds fairly steady on the southern periphery of
the low. Any chances for showers are expected to be limited to the
far northern portion the the forecast area. It will be cooler
Saturday in the wake of the cold front with highs ranging from the
mid 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An upper level trough over Quebec will continue to move away from
the region on Sunday.  This feature looks to be far enough away to
keep it dry across the region on Sunday, with a partly to mostly
sunny sky. Temps look close to seasonal normals with highs in the
upper 70s to low 80s and humidity levels will continue to be fairly
comfortable for early July. Lows on Sunday night will generally be
in the 50s (some upper 40s over the central Adirondacks).

Heights will start rise somewhat on Monday, as the upper level
trough lifts towards Labrador and the flow aloft becomes more zonal
over the region.  Our region will be located within the westerlies
on the northern edge of a large ridge expanding across the CONUS. It
should continue to stay dry for Monday (Independence Day), but temps
look a little warmer, with low to mid 80s for many areas. Sky cover
will continue to be fairly clear to partly cloudy.  Overnight lows
will be in the mid 50s to low 60s.

There are some questions regarding the forecast for the middle of
the week.  While the previous guidance was fairly dry and current
runs of the 00z ECMWF, along with most members of the 00Z GEFS,
continue to be dry, the 00z GFS and 00Z GGEM show a disturbance
moving towards the area from the Ohio Valley along a stalled frontal
boundary for Tuesday with some showers and thunderstorms. For now,
will generally only go with slight chc pops for showers, as the
majority of guidance continues to keep any precip along the stalled
front generally south of the region over the mid-Atlantic states.
Temps will continue to be in the mid 80s with lows in the 60s for
Tuesday.

Whether or not our area is impacted by that system on Tuesday,most
models continue to show building heights and temps aloft for the
remainder of the week. This would allow warmer temps (upper 80s for
valley areas) to move into the region for Wednesday and beyond, with
rising levels of humidity as well. It still continue to look dry
until a northern stream frontal boundary can arrive at some point
during the late week period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IR satellite imagery shows clear skies over the region. There
have been a few pockets of fog and mist this morning (mainly
around KGFL), but with sunrise having already occurred, any
lingering fog or mist should quickly dissipate.

During the day today, VFR conditions will be in place for all
sites with just some passing cirrus and few-sct diurnal cu (mainly over
the higher terrain). Light west to southwest winds will be around
5 kts.

Winds look to go calm this evening into tonight for all sites
with continued VFR conditions. Cirrus clouds will continue to
increase and become bkn at 25 kft for the overnight hours for all
sites. There may be some bkn mid level clouds by the late night
hours as well.

Outlook...

Friday through Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance
of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday through Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...Minimum relatives humidity values will be in the 30s this
afternoon...

High pressure will dominate our weather through tonight with fair
weather, seasonably warm temperatures and light winds. A cold front
will approach and cross the region Friday and Friday night triggering
showers and thunderstorms. In the wake of the front, fair weather
is expected for the rest of the long holiday weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Hydrological problems are not anticipated over the next several
days. Dry weather today and tonight. A cold front will approach
and cross the region Friday and Friday night with showers and
thunderstorms are expected across the local area. Fair weather is
then expected for the rest of the long holiday weekend.

The latest drought monitor released last week has most of our region
labeled Abnormally Dry. Abnormally dry indicates dryness but not yet
in drought.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 301027
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
627 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate our weather through tonight with fair
weather and seasonably warm temperatures. A cold front will
approach and cross the region Friday and Friday night triggering
showers and thunderstorms. In the wake of the front, fair weather
is expected for the rest of the long holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Today will feature fair weather with seasonably warm temperatures
and light winds. Ridging will build in at the surface and in the
lower levels of the atmosphere. While aloft, the region will be
between short wave troughs. Highs this afternoon are expected to
top out from the mid 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Short wave energy rotating about an upper low in the vicinity of
southern Hudson Bay will result in height falls across the region
tonight into Friday night. At the surface, a cold front will be on
the approach during the day and is expected to cross the local
area Friday night. Dew points will rise into the upper 50s to mid
60s in the southwesterly flow ahead of the front. The atmosphere
will become unstable with CAPE values of 500-1500 J/KG expected
for the afternoon into the evening. Guidance has unidirectional
mid level flow of 30 to 40 knots across the area. The Storm Prediction
Center has maintained a Marginal outlook for the development of
severe thunderstorms Friday. Have not added any enhanced wording
to the forecast at this time. Will continue to mention in our
Hazardous Weather Outlook that a few strong to possibly severe
storms are possible.

The low becomes stacked and will move gradually eastward across
eastern Canada through Saturday night. Ridging will build in at
the surface and in the lower levels of the atmosphere; while
heights aloft holds fairly steady on the southern periphery of
the low. Any chances for showers are expected to be limited to the
far northern portion the the forecast area. It will be cooler
Saturday in the wake of the cold front with highs ranging from the
mid 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An upper level trough over Quebec will continue to move away from
the region on Sunday.  This feature looks to be far enough away to
keep it dry across the region on Sunday, with a partly to mostly
sunny sky. Temps look close to seasonal normals with highs in the
upper 70s to low 80s and humidity levels will continue to be fairly
comfortable for early July. Lows on Sunday night will generally be
in the 50s (some upper 40s over the central Adirondacks).

Heights will start rise somewhat on Monday, as the upper level
trough lifts towards Labrador and the flow aloft becomes more zonal
over the region.  Our region will be located within the westerlies
on the northern edge of a large ridge expanding across the CONUS. It
should continue to stay dry for Monday (Independence Day), but temps
look a little warmer, with low to mid 80s for many areas. Sky cover
will continue to be fairly clear to partly cloudy.  Overnight lows
will be in the mid 50s to low 60s.

There are some questions regarding the forecast for the middle of
the week.  While the previous guidance was fairly dry and current
runs of the 00z ECMWF, along with most members of the 00Z GEFS,
continue to be dry, the 00z GFS and 00Z GGEM show a disturbance
moving towards the area from the Ohio Valley along a stalled frontal
boundary for Tuesday with some showers and thunderstorms. For now,
will generally only go with slight chc pops for showers, as the
majority of guidance continues to keep any precip along the stalled
front generally south of the region over the mid-Atlantic states.
Temps will continue to be in the mid 80s with lows in the 60s for
Tuesday.

Whether or not our area is impacted by that system on Tuesday,most
models continue to show building heights and temps aloft for the
remainder of the week. This would allow warmer temps (upper 80s for
valley areas) to move into the region for Wednesday and beyond, with
rising levels of humidity as well. It still continue to look dry
until a northern stream frontal boundary can arrive at some point
during the late week period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IR satellite imagery shows clear skies over the region. There
have been a few pockets of fog and mist this morning (mainly
around KGFL), but with sunrise having already occurred, any
lingering fog or mist should quickly dissipate.

During the day today, VFR conditions will be in place for all
sites with just some passing cirrus and few-sct diurnal cu (mainly over
the higher terrain). Light west to southwest winds will be around
5 kts.

Winds look to go calm this evening into tonight for all sites
with continued VFR conditions. Cirrus clouds will continue to
increase and become bkn at 25 kft for the overnight hours for all
sites. There may be some bkn mid level clouds by the late night
hours as well.

Outlook...

Friday through Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance
of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday through Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...Minimum relatives humidity values will be in the 30s this
afternoon...

High pressure will dominate our weather through tonight with fair
weather, seasonably warm temperatures and light winds. A cold front
will approach and cross the region Friday and Friday night triggering
showers and thunderstorms. In the wake of the front, fair weather
is expected for the rest of the long holiday weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Hydrological problems are not anticipated over the next several
days. Dry weather today and tonight. A cold front will approach
and cross the region Friday and Friday night with showers and
thunderstorms are expected across the local area. Fair weather is
then expected for the rest of the long holiday weekend.

The latest drought monitor released last week has most of our region
labeled Abnormally Dry. Abnormally dry indicates dryness but not yet
in drought.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KBTV 300829
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
429 AM EDT Thu Jun 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control across the North Country through
tonight, with warm daytime temperatures and comfortable humidity
levels. A potent upper-level system on Friday will lead to a
period of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening.
A few stronger thunderstorms are possible, but the main risk would
be from localized heavy rain. Cooler than normal temperatures with
limited chances for showers to start Independence Day weekend, but
turning sunny and dry for Sunday and the Independence Day
holiday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 426 AM EDT Thursday...High pressure remains in control
early this morning with broadly cyclonic flow at mid-levels.
Several areas this morning have seen areas of patchy fog, but it
has not proven to be as persistent or as dense as initially
thought. The coverage of mist or fog is still greater than what
typically happens, so morning drivers for the commute should make
sure to drive a bit slower if fog is encountered. Fog should erode
pretty quickly into the early/mid morning hrs under strong
sunshine. It should prove to be a stellar day with clear skies and
925 mb temperatures around +19 to +21C which should push highs
into the upper 70s to lower/mid 80s today. Very comfortable
humidity levels as dewpoints initially in the mid 50s fall into
the upper 40s as dry air is mixed down this afternoon.

High pressure will still remain in control tonight and the overall
theme of clear skies and light winds will continue, though some
high clouds will begin to approach from the south and west toward
early morning Friday. Possibility of nighttime fog again in the
fog-prone river valleys, however I didn`t include in the Wx grids
as we`ll be a day or two removed from the better soil moisture
flux from the earlier rainfall this week. Lows should be similar
to this morning...in the upper 40s for the Adirondacks to the
upper 50s/around 60 in the Champlain Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 426 AM EDT Thursday...More active weather then develops for
Friday into Friday evening, as a negatively-tilted 500 mb
shortwave trough and cold front/occlusion sweep across the region.
Models are in generally good agreement on timing of the
rain/storms, though the 00z ECMWF is a bit slower than
NAM/SREF/GFS. Sided closer to the latter, faster guidance. Expect
gradually lowering cloud cover to develop and move northward into
the Friday morning hours, which will serve to really limit the
degree of afternoon surface-based instability and low-level lapse
rates to CAPE values at or below 1000 J/kg. In addition, 25-35 kts
of BL-6 km effective shear may support a few organized cells but
isn`t overly impressive. While SPC`s SWODY2 maintains a Marginal
Risk/5% combined severe probabilities, agree with prior forecast
thinking that severe is looking to be less of a factor over the
hydro aspect. For more on the hydrologic aspects, see the
Hydrology section below. Raised PoPs into the high likely range
during the Friday afternoon and Friday early-evening period
associated with the front, and then decreasing to chance/slight
chance for late evening into the overnight. Forcing for ascent
owing to the negative tilt of the trough, a decent moisture axis
of PWATs between 1.2-1.4" and at least modest instability should
support a risk of localized heavy rainfall and I`ve included this
wording in Wx grids.

With the cloud cover that`s likely to be the case in the morning,
I`ve trended lower on the high temperatures than MOS guidance and
what 925 mb temps would otherwise support under full mixing. Using
a blend of cooler raw guidance, I`ve got highs in the 70s.
Likewise, look for temps to be slightly warmer than MOS
(particularly central/eastern VT) from the low/mid 50s for NY into
the mid/upper 50s for most of VT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 426 AM EDT Thursday...Saturday becomes our typical post
frontal regime with the upper low settling in over the area with
lowering heights, residual low level moisture and west to
northwest upslope flow allowing for showers, mainly across the
northern portion of the area closer to the upper low centered over
Quebec. It will be cool and breezy as well with highs only around
70 and northwest winds 15-25 mph.

Drier and Milder on Sunday although can`t rule out an isolated
shower along the canadian border on sunday afternoon. however dry
for any firework displays sunday night.

Monday(4th) will be dry and seasonably warm. Late morning
temperatures in the 60s/70s will be ideal for any parades.

Broad ridge over the central US sets up for the rest of the week.
a shortwave trough moves west to east in westerly flow but will
remain mainly south of the forecast area across southern NY and PA
on Tuesday. Weak ridge builds in for mid week with slightly
warmer than normal temperatures.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Through 06Z Friday...While VFR should hold at least initially,
favorable conditions for radiational mist or fog are in place
tonight with clear skies, calm/light boundary-layer winds and
recently wet soils from Tuesday and/or Wednesday storms. Think
lowest prevailing LIFR/VLIFR ceilings/visibilites in fog (locally
dense) will be at MSS, MPV and SLK through at least 11z. I`ve also
included tempo IFR mist for the rest of the TAFs through 10z where
it`s less clear if fog may settle in to hint at the possibility
that some mist or fog may be around. Any fog should lift by 10-12z
as strong sunshine is expected with VFR conditions for Thursday.

Outlook 06z Friday through Monday...

06z Friday through 12z Friday...VFR except localized LIFR
radiational fog likely at MPV and SLK.

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front brings scattered showers and possible strong thunderstorms
during Friday afternoon. Convective activity should move east of
the region and diminish Friday night.

12z Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR, except few -SHRA
possible nrn mountains Saturday aftn/early evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 426 AM Thursday...Potential for heavy rainfall on Friday
associated with strong frontal system that will move across the
region. Instability will be pretty limited on Friday afternoon
and evening due to morning cloud cover, but there should be at
least some risk of embedded thunderstorms to enhance rainfall.
These showers and embedded thunderstorms will be acting on an axis
of PWATs of around 1.2 to 1.4", relatively high but not excessive.
Another aspect is that the heaviest rain should be moving at a
fairly decent clip which would limit the potential duration
somewhat. Forecast QPF for Friday is less than 0.75", higher in
more persistent thunderstorms.

Still think there is a need to watch for localized heavy rainers
capable of flash flooding over small areas. Areas such as Franklin
and western parts of Clinton County in NY as well as the northern
VT counties of Orleans, Caledonia and Essex Counties would be
slightly more vulnerable to flash flooding. Each of these areas
saw heavy rain these on Tuesday and would need to be watched.
Main-stem river flooding is not currently expected.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...Loconto
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Loconto
HYDROLOGY...Loconto




000
FXUS61 KALY 300828
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
428 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate our weather through tonight with fair
weather and seasonably warm temperatures. A cold front will
approach and cross the region Friday and Friday night triggering
showers and thunderstorms. In the wake of the front, fair weather
is expected for the rest of the long holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Today will feature fair weather with seasonably warm temperatures
and light winds. Ridging will build in at the surface and in the
lower levels of the atmosphere. While aloft, the region will be
between short wave troughs. Highs this afternoon are expected to
top out from the mid 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Short wave energy rotating about an upper low in the vicinity of
southern Hudson Bay will result in height falls across the region
tonight into Friday night. At the surface, a cold front will be on
the approach during the day and is expected to cross the local
area Friday night. Dew points will rise into the upper 50s to mid
60s in the southwesterly flow ahead of the front. The atmosphere
will become unstable with CAPE values of 500-1500 J/KG expected
for the afternoon into the evening. Guidance has unidirectional
mid level flow of 30 to 40 knots across the area. The Storm Prediction
Center has maintained a Marginal outlook for the development of
severe thunderstorms Friday. Have not added any enhanced wording
to the forecast at this time. Will continue to mention in our
Hazardous Weather Outlook that a few strong to possibly severe
storms are possible.

The low becomes stacked and will move gradually eastward across
eastern Canada through Saturday night. Ridging will build in at
the surface and in the lower levels of the atmosphere; while
heights aloft holds fairly steady on the southern periphery of
the low. Any chances for showers are expected to be limited to the
far northern portion the the forecast area. It will be cooler
Saturday in the wake of the cold front with highs ranging from the
mid 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An upper level trough over Quebec will continue to move away from
the region on Sunday.  This feature looks to be far enough away to
keep it dry across the region on Sunday, with a partly to mostly
sunny sky. Temps look close to seasonal normals with highs in the
upper 70s to low 80s and humidity levels will continue to be fairly
comfortable for early July. Lows on Sunday night will generally be
in the 50s (some upper 40s over the central Adirondacks).

Heights will start rise somewhat on Monday, as the upper level
trough lifts towards Labrador and the flow aloft becomes more zonal
over the region.  Our region will be located within the westerlies
on the northern edge of a large ridge expanding across the CONUS. It
should continue to stay dry for Monday (Independence Day), but temps
look a little warmer, with low to mid 80s for many areas. Sky cover
will continue to be fairly clear to partly cloudy.  Overnight lows
will be in the mid 50s to low 60s.

There are some questions regarding the forecast for the middle of
the week.  While the previous guidance was fairly dry and current
runs of the 00z ECMWF, along with most members of the 00Z GEFS,
continue to be dry, the 00z GFS and 00Z GGEM show a disturbance
moving towards the area from the Ohio Valley along a stalled frontal
boundary for Tuesday with some showers and thunderstorms. For now,
will generally only go with slight chc pops for showers, as the
majority of guidance continues to keep any precip along the stalled
front generally south of the region over the mid-Atlantic states.
Temps will continue to be in the mid 80s with lows in the 60s for
Tuesday.

Whether or not our area is impacted by that system on Tuesday,most
models continue to show building heights and temps aloft for the
remainder of the week. This would allow warmer temps (upper 80s for
valley areas) to move into the region for Wednesday and beyond, with
rising levels of humidity as well. It still continue to look dry
until a northern stream frontal boundary can arrive at some point
during the late week period.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Flying conditions are currently VFR for all TAF sites with clear
skies and light winds in place.  Due to localized terrain effects,
some radiational fog will develop this morning at KGFL/KPSF and will
allow for a period of IFR/LIFR conditions just prior to sunrise at
these terminals. No IFR/LIFR fog is expected at KALB/KPOU due to a
large t/td spread, although cannot totally rule out a brief period
of some ground fog or light mist right around sunrise.

Any fog or mist will dissipate by 12z.  During the day Thursday, VFR
conditions will be in place for all sites with just some passing
cirrus and few-sct diurnal cu over the higher terrain.  Light west
to southwest winds will be around 5 kts.

Winds look to go calm Thursday evening into Thursday night for all
sites with continued VFR conditions.   Cirrus clouds will continue
to increase and become bkn at 25 kft for the overnight hours for all
sites.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Independence Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Minimum relatives humidity values will be in the 30s this
afternoon...

High pressure will dominate our weather through tonight with fair
weather, seasonably warm temperatures and light winds. A cold front
will approach and cross the region Friday and Friday night triggering
showers and thunderstorms. In the wake of the front, fair weather
is expected for the rest of the long holiday weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Hydrological problems are not anticipated over the next several
days. Dry weather today and tonight. A cold front will approach
and cross the region Friday and Friday night with showers and
thunderstorms are expected across the local area. Fair weather is
then expected for the rest of the long holiday weekend.

The latest drought monitor released last week has most of our region
labeled Abnormally Dry. Abnormally dry indicates dryness but not yet
in drought.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 300522
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
122 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will settle into the region through Thursday. A
cold front will approach and cross the region Friday accompanied
by scattered showers and thunderstorms. A fair and seasonable
weather pattern is expected for the long holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
The short wave trough will move off to our northeast overnight and
shear out. While at the surface high pressure will build in. With
mainly clear skies and light to calm winds overnight some patchy
fog is expected to develop. Lows are expected to bottom out mainly
into the 50s with some upper 40s across portions of the southern
Adirondacks and eastern Catskills.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned surface ridge and rising heights aloft should
result in a fine early summer day with plenty of sunshine and
winds 10mph or less on Thursday. Per mixing layer heights around
H850, this should yield high temperatures into the low-mid 80s for
valley locations and 75-80F for the terrain.

In this progressive pattern, a rather vigorous upper trough dives
southward across the upper plains and upper mississippi river
valley. Strengthening height falls approaches the Great Lakes
region later in the day which sets the stage for downstream return
flow of increasing moisture.

The best moisture transports remain along or just east of I95,
however, broad higher theta-e air returns northward overnight
Thursday. So some increase in cloud coverage is anticipated as
lows range between 50-60F (the warmer values toward the mid Hudson
Valley).

An active weather day may be shaping up for Friday. The upper
trough will coincide with the surface cold front with enhanced
lift/convergence through the day. While models differ with timing,
they all show strong low level convergence and height falls over
upstate New York. Instability parameters too look to support
deeper convection as Showalters drop toward -3/-4C and SBCAPES
toward 2000 J/KG. Ample bulk shear should be more than sufficient
to support organized line elements with average values around
30kts. In fact, local mesoscale enhancements up the Hudson River
Valley could bring about higher helicity values as the flow aloft
backs with the approach of the front/upper trough. Highs Friday
should climb toward 80F for valley locations with mainly 70s
expected due to the cloud coverage increase.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The holiday weekend is looking fair and dry with high pressure
building in from the Midwest and Great Lakes Region Saturday...and
continuing to dominate through the Independence Day holiday.  A low
pressure system may pass far enough to the north of the Mid Atlantic
States to bring some isold-scatted showers and isold thunderstorm
early Tue into Wed.

Saturday into Independence Day...An upper level low lifts north of
NY and New England on Saturday with some isolated showers and
sprinkles north of the Mohawk Valley and the Capital Region.  High
pressure builds in from the Midwest and the Lower Great Lakes Region
with a cooler and dry air mass that extends into Sunday. Highs on
Saturday and Sunday will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s in the
valleys...and 60s to mid 70s over the hills and mountains.  Lows
both nights will mainly be in the 50s with some upper 40s over the
southern Adirondacks and southern Greens.  Humidity levels will be
very comfortable for early July.

On Independence Day...the latest GEFS/ECMWF/GFS all show the mid and
upper level flow becoming flatter and more zonal.  A low pressure
system may move along the OH valley and into the mid Atlantic Region
late in the day spreading some clouds northward towards southern NY
and southern New England. Temps increase closer to early July
normals with lower to mid 80s in the valley areas...and 70s to lower
80s over the higher terrain.  A few showers may reach the lower to
mid Hudson Valley/NW CT Mon night with lows in the 50s to lower 60s.

Tuesday into Wednesday...The air mass becomes warmer and a bit more
humid in the W to NW flow aloft.  Another disturbance may pass south
of the region with an isolated shower or thunderstorm.  It is hard
to time disturbances in the fast flow.  Highs could reach the upper
80s to lower 90s by the mid week...with upper 70s to mid 80s over
the hills and mountains.

Overall...temps will be near normal with pcpn below normal in the
long term.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Flying conditions are currently VFR for all TAF sites with clear
skies and light winds in place.  Due to localized terrain effects,
some radiational fog will develop this morning at KGFL/KPSF and will
allow for a period of IFR/LIFR conditions just prior to sunrise at
these terminals. No IFR/LIFR fog is expected at KALB/KPOU due to a
large t/td spread, although cannot totally rule out a brief period
of some ground fog or light mist right around sunrise.

Any fog or mist will dissipate by 12z.  During the day Thursday, VFR
conditions will be in place for all sites with just some passing
cirrus and few-sct diurnal cu over the higher terrain.  Light west
to southwest winds will be around 5 kts.

Winds look to go calm Thursday evening into Thursday night for all
sites with continued VFR conditions.   Cirrus clouds will continue
to increase and become bkn at 25 kft for the overnight hours for all
sites.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday to Independence Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Minimum Relative Humidities Thursday range between 30 and 40
percent...

In the wake of an upper level disturbance with isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms, high pressure will settle
into the region tonight through Thursday. A cold front will
approach and cross the region Friday accompanied by scattered
showers and thunderstorms. A calm and seasonable weather pattern
is expected for the long holiday weekend.

Winds tonight will become light and variable then become westerly
on Thursday at speeds of 10 mph or less.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Dry weather through Thursday night as high pressure builds back
into the region. A cold front will approach and cross the region
Friday and Friday night. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
across the area. Some of these storms may be accompanied by heavy
rainfall.

The latest drought monitor released last week has most of our
region labeled Abnormally Dry. Abnormally dry indicates dryness
but not yet in drought.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 300515
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
115 AM EDT Thu Jun 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will come to an end by midnight. High pressure then
builds into the Northeastern United States for Thursday with drier
and mostly sunny conditions. High temperatures will generally
range from the upper 70s to lower 80s, with lower humidity levels.
Another frontal system brings active weather for Friday, with
afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected. Some storms may
become strong to locally severe, along with heavy downpours. The
Independence Day weekend outlook looks mostly dry and favorable
for outdoor plans.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 114 AM EDT Thursday...No big changes to the going forecast
aside for some token adjustments to sky cover. There still is some
low to mid-level clouds floating around, likely remnants from this
afternoon/evening storms, but these should burn off in short
order. Question then turns to the extent of radiational fog as
winds are light to calm pretty much everywhere this evening. In
addition, many areas saw rain either on Tuesday or from
yesterday`s scattered storms so soils are pretty moist from those
rains. Fog should be the most dense in the typical fog prone
Connecticut, Winooski and Passumpsic River Valleys and the
sheltered hollows of the Adirondacks, but most anywhere stands a
chance at seeing at least some mist given the recent wet soils and
clear/calm conditions. No changes to lows which range from the
upper 40s to mid/upper 50s.

Weak ridge of high pressure in place surface and aloft on Thursday
with generally light winds and mostly sunny conditions. High temps
generally upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...Weak ridging on Thursday will
continue into Thursday night, shifting east by Friday morning.
For Friday southerly gradient winds increase in advance of next
surface trough and vigorous 500 mb trough moving through the great
lakes. Rain begins Friday afternoon in the warm air advection
pattern and continues until a cold frontal passage Friday night.
Some ingredients present for heavy rainfall Friday and added it to
the forecast 18-24z Friday. 850 mb flow from the south at 20-30
knots will bring in low level moisture along/ahead of the
boundary. Model sounding shows tall skinny CAPE profile, with
relatively low CAPE value and saturated conditions. Warm cloud
depth just a little shy of the preferred 3km depth, and
Precipitable Water values near 1.4-1.5" are in the 75th
percentile. Playing down the severe threat now with surface max
temps forecast in the upper 70s to near 80 which would reduce
CAPE. 0-3 km shear less than 30kts, and highest shear values
coincide with the frontal passage later Friday and do not line up
well with the thermodynamics.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...Saturday becomes our typical post
frontal regime with the upper low settling in over the area with
lowering heights, residual low level moisture and west to
northwest uplslope flow. As a result chance showers during daytime
heating Saturday, mainly across the northern portion of the area
closer to the upper low centered over Quebec. Cool through the
weekend until the upper low begins to pull away on Monday, with a
dry 3rd & 4th of July forecast.

Broad ridge over the central US sets up for the rest of the week.
a shortwave trough moves west to east in westerly flow but will
remain mainly south of the forecast area across southern NY and
PA on Tuesday. Weak ridge builds in for mid week with seasonably
warm temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Through 06Z Friday...While VFR should hold at least initially,
favorable conditions for radiational mist or fog are in place
tonight with clear skies, calm/light boundary-layer winds and
recently wet soils from Tuesday and/or Wednesday storms. Think
lowest prevailing LIFR/VLIFR ceilings/visibilites in fog (locally
dense) will be at MSS, MPV and SLK through at least 11z. I`ve also
included tempo IFR mist for the rest of the TAFs through 10z where
it`s less clear if fog may settle in to hint at the possibility
that some mist or fog may be around. Any fog should lift by 10-12z
as strong sunshine is expected with VFR conditions for Thursday.

Outlook 06z Friday through Monday...

06z Friday through 12z Friday...VFR except localized LIFR
radiational fog likely at MPV and SLK.

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front brings scattered showers and possible strong thunderstorms
during Friday afternoon. Convective activity should move east of
the region and diminish Friday night.

12z Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR, except few -SHRA
possible nrn mountains Saturday aftn/early evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Scattered shower and thunderstorm development ongoing this
afternoon as 500mb low and associated thermal trough (-15 to -16C)
shifts slowly ewd across the North Country. NAM soundings suggest
slow-moving activity, with NEWD propagation/MBE vectors of
5-10kts. Consistent with that, have seen training thunderstorms
with radar estimated rainfall of 1 to 2" across Grand Isle county
and also across Eastern Essex NY on wrn shore of Lake Champlain.
Air mass remains unstable ewd across VT this aftn into this
evening with SBCAPE values generally 500-1000 J/kg. PW values are
a bit lower today, generally 1.1 - 1.2" and 3-hr flash flood
guidance of 2 to 3" most sections. Can`t rule out some localized
flooding concerns this afternoon and evening, but mainly across
the areas that observed heavier rainfall yesterday (namely
portions of srn Franklin NY into wrn Clinton counties, and also
across Orleans, Caledonia, and Essex counties in VT). Will
monitor convective and radar trends through the afternoon and
evening hours.

For Friday, heavy rainfall potential raises local flood concerns.
Factors arguing against flood threat is rainfall will be a quick
hit between 18z and 00z, and despite recent rainfall overall
antecedent conditions remain fairly dry. Biggest concern would be
for heavy rainers over small areas to produce flash flooding,
especially if rain falls over the isolated spots where we`ve had
rain in the past 24 hours.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Nash
NEAR TERM...Loconto/Nash
SHORT TERM...Hanson
LONG TERM...Hanson
AVIATION...Loconto
HYDROLOGY...Banacos/Hanson




000
FXUS61 KBTV 300515
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
115 AM EDT Thu Jun 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will come to an end by midnight. High pressure then
builds into the Northeastern United States for Thursday with drier
and mostly sunny conditions. High temperatures will generally
range from the upper 70s to lower 80s, with lower humidity levels.
Another frontal system brings active weather for Friday, with
afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected. Some storms may
become strong to locally severe, along with heavy downpours. The
Independence Day weekend outlook looks mostly dry and favorable
for outdoor plans.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 114 AM EDT Thursday...No big changes to the going forecast
aside for some token adjustments to sky cover. There still is some
low to mid-level clouds floating around, likely remnants from this
afternoon/evening storms, but these should burn off in short
order. Question then turns to the extent of radiational fog as
winds are light to calm pretty much everywhere this evening. In
addition, many areas saw rain either on Tuesday or from
yesterday`s scattered storms so soils are pretty moist from those
rains. Fog should be the most dense in the typical fog prone
Connecticut, Winooski and Passumpsic River Valleys and the
sheltered hollows of the Adirondacks, but most anywhere stands a
chance at seeing at least some mist given the recent wet soils and
clear/calm conditions. No changes to lows which range from the
upper 40s to mid/upper 50s.

Weak ridge of high pressure in place surface and aloft on Thursday
with generally light winds and mostly sunny conditions. High temps
generally upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...Weak ridging on Thursday will
continue into Thursday night, shifting east by Friday morning.
For Friday southerly gradient winds increase in advance of next
surface trough and vigorous 500 mb trough moving through the great
lakes. Rain begins Friday afternoon in the warm air advection
pattern and continues until a cold frontal passage Friday night.
Some ingredients present for heavy rainfall Friday and added it to
the forecast 18-24z Friday. 850 mb flow from the south at 20-30
knots will bring in low level moisture along/ahead of the
boundary. Model sounding shows tall skinny CAPE profile, with
relatively low CAPE value and saturated conditions. Warm cloud
depth just a little shy of the preferred 3km depth, and
Precipitable Water values near 1.4-1.5" are in the 75th
percentile. Playing down the severe threat now with surface max
temps forecast in the upper 70s to near 80 which would reduce
CAPE. 0-3 km shear less than 30kts, and highest shear values
coincide with the frontal passage later Friday and do not line up
well with the thermodynamics.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...Saturday becomes our typical post
frontal regime with the upper low settling in over the area with
lowering heights, residual low level moisture and west to
northwest uplslope flow. As a result chance showers during daytime
heating Saturday, mainly across the northern portion of the area
closer to the upper low centered over Quebec. Cool through the
weekend until the upper low begins to pull away on Monday, with a
dry 3rd & 4th of July forecast.

Broad ridge over the central US sets up for the rest of the week.
a shortwave trough moves west to east in westerly flow but will
remain mainly south of the forecast area across southern NY and
PA on Tuesday. Weak ridge builds in for mid week with seasonably
warm temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Through 06Z Friday...While VFR should hold at least initially,
favorable conditions for radiational mist or fog are in place
tonight with clear skies, calm/light boundary-layer winds and
recently wet soils from Tuesday and/or Wednesday storms. Think
lowest prevailing LIFR/VLIFR ceilings/visibilites in fog (locally
dense) will be at MSS, MPV and SLK through at least 11z. I`ve also
included tempo IFR mist for the rest of the TAFs through 10z where
it`s less clear if fog may settle in to hint at the possibility
that some mist or fog may be around. Any fog should lift by 10-12z
as strong sunshine is expected with VFR conditions for Thursday.

Outlook 06z Friday through Monday...

06z Friday through 12z Friday...VFR except localized LIFR
radiational fog likely at MPV and SLK.

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front brings scattered showers and possible strong thunderstorms
during Friday afternoon. Convective activity should move east of
the region and diminish Friday night.

12z Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR, except few -SHRA
possible nrn mountains Saturday aftn/early evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Scattered shower and thunderstorm development ongoing this
afternoon as 500mb low and associated thermal trough (-15 to -16C)
shifts slowly ewd across the North Country. NAM soundings suggest
slow-moving activity, with NEWD propagation/MBE vectors of
5-10kts. Consistent with that, have seen training thunderstorms
with radar estimated rainfall of 1 to 2" across Grand Isle county
and also across Eastern Essex NY on wrn shore of Lake Champlain.
Air mass remains unstable ewd across VT this aftn into this
evening with SBCAPE values generally 500-1000 J/kg. PW values are
a bit lower today, generally 1.1 - 1.2" and 3-hr flash flood
guidance of 2 to 3" most sections. Can`t rule out some localized
flooding concerns this afternoon and evening, but mainly across
the areas that observed heavier rainfall yesterday (namely
portions of srn Franklin NY into wrn Clinton counties, and also
across Orleans, Caledonia, and Essex counties in VT). Will
monitor convective and radar trends through the afternoon and
evening hours.

For Friday, heavy rainfall potential raises local flood concerns.
Factors arguing against flood threat is rainfall will be a quick
hit between 18z and 00z, and despite recent rainfall overall
antecedent conditions remain fairly dry. Biggest concern would be
for heavy rainers over small areas to produce flash flooding,
especially if rain falls over the isolated spots where we`ve had
rain in the past 24 hours.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Nash
NEAR TERM...Loconto/Nash
SHORT TERM...Hanson
LONG TERM...Hanson
AVIATION...Loconto
HYDROLOGY...Banacos/Hanson




000
FXUS61 KBTV 300235
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1035 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will come to an end by midnight. High pressure then
builds into the Northeastern United States for Thursday with drier
and mostly sunny conditions. High temperatures will generally
range from the upper 70s to lower 80s, with lower humidity levels.
Another frontal system brings active weather for Friday, with
afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected. Some storms may
become strong to locally severe, along with heavy downpours. The
Independence Day weekend outlook looks mostly dry and favorable
for outdoor plans.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY EVENING/...
As of 1032 PM EDT Wednesday...late evening forecast refresh
features only minimal modifications just to fold in current
conditions. only 1 light rainshower left over the western
adirondacks and that should be gone by midnight.

otherwise forecast for the overnight will feature cooler
temperatures than the last couple of nights. still expecting patchy
dense fog. given recent rains and expected clearing and light
winds, we should see fairly thick fog develop by midnight in
normally fog prone river valleys.

Overnight lows generally low-mid 50s, except a few 40s in the
northern Adirondacks.

Weak ridge of high pressure in place surface and aloft on Thursday
with generally light winds and mostly sunny conditions. High temps
generally upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...Weak ridging on Thursday will
continue into Thursday night, shifting east by Friday morning.
For Friday southerly gradient winds increase in advance of next
surface trough and vigorous 500 mb trough moving through the great
lakes. Rain begins Friday afternoon in the warm air advection
pattern and continues until a cold frontal passage Friday night.
Some ingredients present for heavy rainfall Friday and added it to
the forecast 18-24z Friday. 850 mb flow from the south at 20-30
knots will bring in low level moisture along/ahead of the
boundary. Model sounding shows tall skinny CAPE profile, with
relatively low CAPE value and saturated conditions. Warm cloud
depth just a little shy of the preferred 3km depth, and
Precipitable Water values near 1.4-1.5" are in the 75th
percentile. Playing down the severe threat now with surface max
temps forecast in the upper 70s to near 80 which would reduce
CAPE. 0-3 km shear less than 30kts, and highest shear values
coincide with the frontal passage later Friday and do not line up
well with the thermodynamics.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...Saturday becomes our typical post
frontal regime with the upper low settling in over the area with
lowering heights, residual low level moisture and west to
northwest uplslope flow. As a result chance showers during daytime
heating Saturday, mainly across the northern portion of the area
closer to the upper low centered over Quebec. Cool through the
weekend until the upper low begins to pull away on Monday, with a
dry 3rd & 4th of July forecast.

Broad ridge over the central US sets up for the rest of the week.
a shortwave trough moves west to east in westerly flow but will
remain mainly south of the forecast area across southern NY and
PA on Tuesday. Weak ridge builds in for mid week with seasonably
warm temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Through 00Z friday...scattered showers across northern new york
should be gone by 03z. expecting mvfr to ifr conditions with
patchy dense fog. thinking SLK, MPV are most succeptible, however
RUT and MSS getting in on the fog action is not out of the
question either. any morning fog is gone around 12z, leaving vfr
area wide for all day thursday.

Outlook 00z friday through Monday...

00z friday through 12z Friday...VFR except localized LIFR
radiational fog likely at MPV and SLK 06-12Z Friday morning.

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front brings scattered showers and possible strong thunderstorms
during Friday afternoon. Convective activity should move east of
the region and diminish Friday night.

12z Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR, except few -SHRA
possible nrn mountains Saturday aftn/early evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Scattered shower and thunderstorm development ongoing this
afternoon as 500mb low and associated thermal trough (-15 to -16C)
shifts slowly ewd across the North Country. NAM soundings suggest
slow-moving activity, with NEWD propagation/MBE vectors of
5-10kts. Consistent with that, have seen training thunderstorms
with radar estimated rainfall of 1 to 2" across Grand Isle county
and also across Eastern Essex NY on wrn shore of Lake Champlain.
Air mass remains unstable ewd across VT this aftn into this
evening with SBCAPE values generally 500-1000 J/kg. PW values are
a bit lower today, generally 1.1 - 1.2" and 3-hr flash flood
guidance of 2 to 3" most sections. Can`t rule out some localized
flooding concerns this afternoon and evening, but mainly across
the areas that observed heavier rainfall yesterday (namely
portions of srn Franklin NY into wrn Clinton counties, and also
across Orleans, Caledonia, and Essex counties in VT). Will
monitor convective and radar trends through the afternoon and
evening hours.

For Friday, heavy rainfall potential raises local flood concerns.
Factors arguing against flood threat is rainfall will be a quick
hit between 18z and 00z, and despite recent rainfall overall
antecedent conditions remain fairly dry. Biggest concern would be
for heavy rainers over small areas to produce flash flooding,
especially if rain falls over the isolated spots where we`ve had
rain in the past 24 hours.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Nash
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Nash
SHORT TERM...Hanson
LONG TERM...Hanson
AVIATION...Banacos/Nash
HYDROLOGY...Banacos/Hanson




000
FXUS61 KALY 300131
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
931 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
In the wake of an upper level disturbance, high pressure will
settle into the region tonight through Thursday. A cold front
will approach and cross the region Friday accompanied by
scattered showers and thunderstorms. A calm and seasonable
weather pattern is expected for the long holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 930 PM EDT, still a few isolated showers across portions of
the Lake George region/upper Hudson Valley and southern VT.
Although the main upper level disturbance has moved east of the
region, enough instability remains to allow for these isolated
showers. Will keep slight chances across the southern Adirondacks
and southern VT through around midnight, when the loss of daytime
heating should allow the threat for any showers to end.

Otherwise, both surface pressures and heights aloft rise with
clearing skies and light winds overnight. This would also set the
stage for some patchy fog. Overnight lows mainly into the 50s with
some upper 40s into the Adirondacks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned surface ridge and rising heights aloft should
result in a fine early summer day with plenty of sunshine and
winds 10mph or less on Thursday. Per mixing layer heights around
H850, this should yield high temperatures into the low-mid 80s for
valley locations and 75-80F for the terrain.

In this progressive pattern, a rather vigorous upper trough dives
southward across the upper plains and upper mississippi river
valley. Strengthening height falls approaches the Great Lakes
region later in the day which sets the stage for downstream return
flow of increasing moisture.

The best moisture transports remain along or just east of I95,
however, broad higher theta-e air returns northward overnight
Thursday. So some increase in cloud coverage is anticipated as
lows range between 50-60F (the warmer values toward the mid Hudson
Valley).

An active weather day may be shaping up for Friday. The upper
trough will coincide with the surface cold front with enhanced
lift/convergence through the day. While models differ with timing,
they all show strong low level convergence and height falls over
upstate New York. Instability parameters too look to support
deeper convection as Showalters drop toward -3/-4C and SBCAPES
toward 2000 J/KG. Ample bulk shear should be more than sufficient
to support organized line elements with average values around
30kts. In fact, local mesoscale enhancements up the Hudson River
Valley could bring about higher helicity values as the flow aloft
backs with the approach of the front/upper trough. Highs Friday
should climb toward 80F for valley locations with mainly 70s
expected due to the cloud coverage increase.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The holiday weekend is looking fair and dry with high pressure
building in from the Midwest and Great Lakes Region Saturday...and
continuing to dominate through the Independence Day holiday.  A low
pressure system may pass far enough to the north of the Mid Atlantic
States to bring some isold-scatted showers and isold thunderstorm
early Tue into Wed.

Saturday into Independence Day...An upper level low lifts north of
NY and New England on Saturday with some isolated showers and
sprinkles north of the Mohawk Valley and the Capital Region.  High
pressure builds in from the Midwest and the Lower Great Lakes Region
with a cooler and dry air mass that extends into Sunday. Highs on
Saturday and Sunday will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s in the
valleys...and 60s to mid 70s over the hills and mountains.  Lows
both nights will mainly be in the 50s with some upper 40s over the
southern Adirondacks and southern Greens.  Humidity levels will be
very comfortable for early July.

On Independence Day...the latest GEFS/ECMWF/GFS all show the mid and
upper level flow becoming flatter and more zonal.  A low pressure
system may move along the OH valley and into the mid Atlantic Region
late in the day spreading some clouds northward towards southern NY
and southern New England. Temps increase closer to early July
normals with lower to mid 80s in the valley areas...and 70s to lower
80s over the higher terrain.  A few showers may reach the lower to
mid Hudson Valley/NW CT Mon night with lows in the 50s to lower 60s.

Tuesday into Wednesday...The air mass becomes warmer and a bit more
humid in the W to NW flow aloft.  Another disturbance may pass south
of the region with an isolated shower or thunderstorm.  It is hard
to time disturbances in the fast flow.  Highs could reach the upper
80s to lower 90s by the mid week...with upper 70s to mid 80s over
the hills and mountains.

Overall...temps will be near normal with pcpn below normal in the
long term.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper level disturbance will move east of the region this
evening. High Pressure will ridge in from lower Great Lakes
Region tonight into Thursday.

Some MVFR/IFR radiational mist/fog may form at KPSF/KGFL between
07Z-11Z/THU. The mist/fog should burn off quickly by 12Z/Thu due
to decent mixing and the strong late June sun.

West to northwest winds at 5-10 KT will become light to calm
prior to midnight. Light west to northwest winds will pick up at
between 14Z-16Z/Thu at 5-10 kts, although may be occasionally
variable in direction at KGFL due to local topographical effects.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday to Independence Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     Minimum Relative Humidities Thursday range between 30 and 40
percent...

In the wake of an upper level disturbance with isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms, high pressure will settle
into the region tonight through Thursday. A cold front will
approach and cross the region Friday accompanied by scattered
showers and thunderstorms. A calm and seasonable weather pattern
is expected for the long holiday weekend.

Winds tonight will become light and variable then become westerly
on Thursday at speeds of 10 mph or less.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts were variable across the area Tuesday and Tuesday
night ranging from less than a tenth up to localized radar
estimates of 3 to 4 inches.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will diminish into
this evening with minimal impacts expected. Dry weather is then
expected tonight through Thursday night as high pressure builds
back into the region.

A cold front will approach and cross the region Friday and Friday
night. Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area.
Some of these storms may be accompanied by heavy rainfall.

The latest drought monitor released last week has most of our
region labeled Abnormally Dry. Abnormally dry indicates dryness
but not yet in drought.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...KL/Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 300131
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
931 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
In the wake of an upper level disturbance, high pressure will
settle into the region tonight through Thursday. A cold front
will approach and cross the region Friday accompanied by
scattered showers and thunderstorms. A calm and seasonable
weather pattern is expected for the long holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 930 PM EDT, still a few isolated showers across portions of
the Lake George region/upper Hudson Valley and southern VT.
Although the main upper level disturbance has moved east of the
region, enough instability remains to allow for these isolated
showers. Will keep slight chances across the southern Adirondacks
and southern VT through around midnight, when the loss of daytime
heating should allow the threat for any showers to end.

Otherwise, both surface pressures and heights aloft rise with
clearing skies and light winds overnight. This would also set the
stage for some patchy fog. Overnight lows mainly into the 50s with
some upper 40s into the Adirondacks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned surface ridge and rising heights aloft should
result in a fine early summer day with plenty of sunshine and
winds 10mph or less on Thursday. Per mixing layer heights around
H850, this should yield high temperatures into the low-mid 80s for
valley locations and 75-80F for the terrain.

In this progressive pattern, a rather vigorous upper trough dives
southward across the upper plains and upper mississippi river
valley. Strengthening height falls approaches the Great Lakes
region later in the day which sets the stage for downstream return
flow of increasing moisture.

The best moisture transports remain along or just east of I95,
however, broad higher theta-e air returns northward overnight
Thursday. So some increase in cloud coverage is anticipated as
lows range between 50-60F (the warmer values toward the mid Hudson
Valley).

An active weather day may be shaping up for Friday. The upper
trough will coincide with the surface cold front with enhanced
lift/convergence through the day. While models differ with timing,
they all show strong low level convergence and height falls over
upstate New York. Instability parameters too look to support
deeper convection as Showalters drop toward -3/-4C and SBCAPES
toward 2000 J/KG. Ample bulk shear should be more than sufficient
to support organized line elements with average values around
30kts. In fact, local mesoscale enhancements up the Hudson River
Valley could bring about higher helicity values as the flow aloft
backs with the approach of the front/upper trough. Highs Friday
should climb toward 80F for valley locations with mainly 70s
expected due to the cloud coverage increase.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The holiday weekend is looking fair and dry with high pressure
building in from the Midwest and Great Lakes Region Saturday...and
continuing to dominate through the Independence Day holiday.  A low
pressure system may pass far enough to the north of the Mid Atlantic
States to bring some isold-scatted showers and isold thunderstorm
early Tue into Wed.

Saturday into Independence Day...An upper level low lifts north of
NY and New England on Saturday with some isolated showers and
sprinkles north of the Mohawk Valley and the Capital Region.  High
pressure builds in from the Midwest and the Lower Great Lakes Region
with a cooler and dry air mass that extends into Sunday. Highs on
Saturday and Sunday will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s in the
valleys...and 60s to mid 70s over the hills and mountains.  Lows
both nights will mainly be in the 50s with some upper 40s over the
southern Adirondacks and southern Greens.  Humidity levels will be
very comfortable for early July.

On Independence Day...the latest GEFS/ECMWF/GFS all show the mid and
upper level flow becoming flatter and more zonal.  A low pressure
system may move along the OH valley and into the mid Atlantic Region
late in the day spreading some clouds northward towards southern NY
and southern New England. Temps increase closer to early July
normals with lower to mid 80s in the valley areas...and 70s to lower
80s over the higher terrain.  A few showers may reach the lower to
mid Hudson Valley/NW CT Mon night with lows in the 50s to lower 60s.

Tuesday into Wednesday...The air mass becomes warmer and a bit more
humid in the W to NW flow aloft.  Another disturbance may pass south
of the region with an isolated shower or thunderstorm.  It is hard
to time disturbances in the fast flow.  Highs could reach the upper
80s to lower 90s by the mid week...with upper 70s to mid 80s over
the hills and mountains.

Overall...temps will be near normal with pcpn below normal in the
long term.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper level disturbance will move east of the region this
evening. High Pressure will ridge in from lower Great Lakes
Region tonight into Thursday.

Some MVFR/IFR radiational mist/fog may form at KPSF/KGFL between
07Z-11Z/THU. The mist/fog should burn off quickly by 12Z/Thu due
to decent mixing and the strong late June sun.

West to northwest winds at 5-10 KT will become light to calm
prior to midnight. Light west to northwest winds will pick up at
between 14Z-16Z/Thu at 5-10 kts, although may be occasionally
variable in direction at KGFL due to local topographical effects.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday to Independence Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     Minimum Relative Humidities Thursday range between 30 and 40
percent...

In the wake of an upper level disturbance with isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms, high pressure will settle
into the region tonight through Thursday. A cold front will
approach and cross the region Friday accompanied by scattered
showers and thunderstorms. A calm and seasonable weather pattern
is expected for the long holiday weekend.

Winds tonight will become light and variable then become westerly
on Thursday at speeds of 10 mph or less.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts were variable across the area Tuesday and Tuesday
night ranging from less than a tenth up to localized radar
estimates of 3 to 4 inches.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will diminish into
this evening with minimal impacts expected. Dry weather is then
expected tonight through Thursday night as high pressure builds
back into the region.

A cold front will approach and cross the region Friday and Friday
night. Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area.
Some of these storms may be accompanied by heavy rainfall.

The latest drought monitor released last week has most of our
region labeled Abnormally Dry. Abnormally dry indicates dryness
but not yet in drought.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...KL/Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 300041
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
841 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will come to an end by midnight. High pressure then
builds into the Northeastern United States for Thursday with drier
and mostly sunny conditions. High temperatures will generally
range from the upper 70s to lower 80s, with lower humidity levels.
Another frontal system brings active weather for Friday, with
afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected. Some storms may
become strong to locally severe, along with heavy downpours. The
Independence Day weekend outlook looks mostly dry and favorable
for outdoor plans.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 840 PM EDT Wednesday...going forecast looks pretty good. did
only cosmetic tweaks to: 1) remove the small hail aspect of the
forecast given the downward trends from radar and instability
analysis 2) incorporate in some 18z guidance regarding patchy
dense fog potential. given recent rains and expected clearing and
light winds, we should see fairly thick fog develop by midnight in
normally fog prone river valleys.

Overnight lows generally low-mid 50s, except a few 40s in the nrn
Adirondacks.

Weak ridge of high pressure in place surface and aloft on Thursday
with generally light winds and mostly sunny conditions. High temps
generally upr 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...Weak ridging on Thursday will
continue into Thursday night, shifting east by Friday morning.
For Friday southerly gradient winds increase in advance of next
surface trough and vigorous 500 mb trough moving through the great
lakes. Rain begins Friday afternoon in the warm air advection
pattern and continues until a cold frontal passage Friday night.
Some ingredients present for heavy rainfall Friday and added it to
the forecast 18-24z Friday. 850 mb flow from the south at 20-30
knots will bring in low level moisture along/ahead of the
boundary. Model sounding shows tall skinny CAPE profile, with
relatively low CAPE value and saturated conditions. Warm cloud
depth just a little shy of the preferred 3km depth, and
Precipitable Water values near 1.4-1.5" are in the 75th
percentile. Playing down the severe threat now with surface max
temps forecast in the upper 70s to near 80 which would reduce
CAPE. 0-3 km shear less than 30kts, and highest shear values
coincide with the frontal passage later Friday and do not line up
well with the thermodynamics.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...Saturday becomes our typical post
frontal regime with the upper low settling in over the area with
lowering heights, residual low level moisture and west to
northwest uplslope flow. As a result chance showers during daytime
heating Saturday, mainly across the northern portion of the area
closer to the upper low centered over Quebec. Cool through the
weekend until the upper low begins to pull away on Monday, with a
dry 3rd & 4th of July forecast.

Broad ridge over the central US sets up for the rest of the week.
a shortwave trough moves west to east in westerly flow but will
remain mainly south of the forecast area across southern NY and
PA on Tuesday. Weak ridge builds in for mid week with seasonably
warm temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Through 00Z friday...scattered showers across northern new york
should be gone by 03z. expecting mvfr to ifr conditions with
patchy dense fog. thinking SLK, MPV are most succeptible, however
RUT and MSS getting in on the fog action is not out of the
question either. any morning fog is gone around 12z, leaving vfr
area wide for all day thursday.

Outlook 00z friday through Monday...

00z friday through 12z Friday...VFR except localized LIFR
radiational fog likely at MPV and SLK 06-12Z Friday morning.

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front brings scattered showers and possible strong thunderstorms
during Friday afternoon. Convective activity should move east of
the region and diminish Friday night.

12z Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR, except few -SHRA
possible nrn mountains Saturday aftn/early evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Scattered shower and thunderstorm development ongoing this
afternoon as 500mb low and associated thermal trough (-15 to -16C)
shifts slowly ewd across the North Country. NAM soundings suggest
slow-moving activity, with NEWD propagation/MBE vectors of
5-10kts. Consistent with that, have seen training thunderstorms
with radar estimated rainfall of 1 to 2" across Grand Isle county
and also across Eastern Essex NY on wrn shore of Lake Champlain.
Air mass remains unstable ewd across VT this aftn into this
evening with SBCAPE values generally 500-1000 J/kg. PW values are
a bit lower today, generally 1.1 - 1.2" and 3-hr flash flood
guidance of 2 to 3" most sections. Can`t rule out some localized
flooding concerns this afternoon and evening, but mainly across
the areas that observed heavier rainfall yesterday (namely
portions of srn Franklin NY into wrn Clinton counties, and also
across Orleans, Caledonia, and Essex counties in VT). Will
monitor convective and radar trends through the afternoon and
evening hours.

For Friday, heavy rainfall potential raises local flood concerns.
Factors arguing against flood threat is rainfall will be a quick
hit between 18z and 00z, and despite recent rainfall overall
antecedent conditions remain fairly dry. Biggest concern would be
for heavy rainers over small areas to produce flash flooding,
especially if rain falls over the isolated spots where we`ve had
rain in the past 24 hours.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Nash
SHORT TERM...Hanson
LONG TERM...Hanson
AVIATION...Banacos/Nash
HYDROLOGY...Banacos/Hanson




000
FXUS61 KBTV 300041
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
841 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will come to an end by midnight. High pressure then
builds into the Northeastern United States for Thursday with drier
and mostly sunny conditions. High temperatures will generally
range from the upper 70s to lower 80s, with lower humidity levels.
Another frontal system brings active weather for Friday, with
afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected. Some storms may
become strong to locally severe, along with heavy downpours. The
Independence Day weekend outlook looks mostly dry and favorable
for outdoor plans.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 840 PM EDT Wednesday...going forecast looks pretty good. did
only cosmetic tweaks to: 1) remove the small hail aspect of the
forecast given the downward trends from radar and instability
analysis 2) incorporate in some 18z guidance regarding patchy
dense fog potential. given recent rains and expected clearing and
light winds, we should see fairly thick fog develop by midnight in
normally fog prone river valleys.

Overnight lows generally low-mid 50s, except a few 40s in the nrn
Adirondacks.

Weak ridge of high pressure in place surface and aloft on Thursday
with generally light winds and mostly sunny conditions. High temps
generally upr 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...Weak ridging on Thursday will
continue into Thursday night, shifting east by Friday morning.
For Friday southerly gradient winds increase in advance of next
surface trough and vigorous 500 mb trough moving through the great
lakes. Rain begins Friday afternoon in the warm air advection
pattern and continues until a cold frontal passage Friday night.
Some ingredients present for heavy rainfall Friday and added it to
the forecast 18-24z Friday. 850 mb flow from the south at 20-30
knots will bring in low level moisture along/ahead of the
boundary. Model sounding shows tall skinny CAPE profile, with
relatively low CAPE value and saturated conditions. Warm cloud
depth just a little shy of the preferred 3km depth, and
Precipitable Water values near 1.4-1.5" are in the 75th
percentile. Playing down the severe threat now with surface max
temps forecast in the upper 70s to near 80 which would reduce
CAPE. 0-3 km shear less than 30kts, and highest shear values
coincide with the frontal passage later Friday and do not line up
well with the thermodynamics.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Wednesday...Saturday becomes our typical post
frontal regime with the upper low settling in over the area with
lowering heights, residual low level moisture and west to
northwest uplslope flow. As a result chance showers during daytime
heating Saturday, mainly across the northern portion of the area
closer to the upper low centered over Quebec. Cool through the
weekend until the upper low begins to pull away on Monday, with a
dry 3rd & 4th of July forecast.

Broad ridge over the central US sets up for the rest of the week.
a shortwave trough moves west to east in westerly flow but will
remain mainly south of the forecast area across southern NY and
PA on Tuesday. Weak ridge builds in for mid week with seasonably
warm temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Through 00Z friday...scattered showers across northern new york
should be gone by 03z. expecting mvfr to ifr conditions with
patchy dense fog. thinking SLK, MPV are most succeptible, however
RUT and MSS getting in on the fog action is not out of the
question either. any morning fog is gone around 12z, leaving vfr
area wide for all day thursday.

Outlook 00z friday through Monday...

00z friday through 12z Friday...VFR except localized LIFR
radiational fog likely at MPV and SLK 06-12Z Friday morning.

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front brings scattered showers and possible strong thunderstorms
during Friday afternoon. Convective activity should move east of
the region and diminish Friday night.

12z Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR, except few -SHRA
possible nrn mountains Saturday aftn/early evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Scattered shower and thunderstorm development ongoing this
afternoon as 500mb low and associated thermal trough (-15 to -16C)
shifts slowly ewd across the North Country. NAM soundings suggest
slow-moving activity, with NEWD propagation/MBE vectors of
5-10kts. Consistent with that, have seen training thunderstorms
with radar estimated rainfall of 1 to 2" across Grand Isle county
and also across Eastern Essex NY on wrn shore of Lake Champlain.
Air mass remains unstable ewd across VT this aftn into this
evening with SBCAPE values generally 500-1000 J/kg. PW values are
a bit lower today, generally 1.1 - 1.2" and 3-hr flash flood
guidance of 2 to 3" most sections. Can`t rule out some localized
flooding concerns this afternoon and evening, but mainly across
the areas that observed heavier rainfall yesterday (namely
portions of srn Franklin NY into wrn Clinton counties, and also
across Orleans, Caledonia, and Essex counties in VT). Will
monitor convective and radar trends through the afternoon and
evening hours.

For Friday, heavy rainfall potential raises local flood concerns.
Factors arguing against flood threat is rainfall will be a quick
hit between 18z and 00z, and despite recent rainfall overall
antecedent conditions remain fairly dry. Biggest concern would be
for heavy rainers over small areas to produce flash flooding,
especially if rain falls over the isolated spots where we`ve had
rain in the past 24 hours.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Nash
SHORT TERM...Hanson
LONG TERM...Hanson
AVIATION...Banacos/Nash
HYDROLOGY...Banacos/Hanson




000
FXUS61 KALY 292324
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
724 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
In the wake of an upper level disturbance, high pressure will
settle into the region tonight through Thursday. A cold front
will approach and cross the region Friday accompanied by
scattered showers and thunderstorms. A calm and seasonable
weather pattern is expected for the long holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 720 PM EDT, still a few isolated showers across portions of
the southern Adirondacks, including one near Lake George. Although
the main upper level disturbance has moved east of the region,
enough instability remains to allow for these isolated showers.
Will keep slight chances across the southern Adirondacks and
southern VT through around 10 PM, when the loss of daytime heating
should allow the threat for any showers to end.

Otherwise, both surface pressures and heights aloft rise with
clearing skies and light winds overnight. This would also set the
stage for some patchy fog. Overnight lows mainly into the 50s with
some upper 40s into the Adirondacks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned surface ridge and rising heights aloft should
result in a fine early summer day with plenty of sunshine and
winds 10mph or less on Thursday. Per mixing layer heights around
H850, this should yield high temperatures into the low-mid 80s for
valley locations and 75-80F for the terrain.

In this progressive pattern, a rather vigorous upper trough dives
southward across the upper plains and upper mississippi river
valley. Strengthening height falls approaches the Great Lakes
region later in the day which sets the stage for downstream return
flow of increasing moisture.

The best moisture transports remain along or just east of I95,
however, broad higher theta-e air returns northward overnight
Thursday. So some increase in cloud coverage is anticipated as
lows range between 50-60F (the warmer values toward the mid Hudson
Valley).

An active weather day may be shaping up for Friday. The upper
trough will coincide with the surface cold front with enhanced
lift/convergence through the day. While models differ with timing,
they all show strong low level convergence and height falls over
upstate New York. Instability parameters too look to support
deeper convection as Showalters drop toward -3/-4C and SBCAPES
toward 2000 J/KG. Ample bulk shear should be more than sufficient
to support organized line elements with average values around
30kts. In fact, local mesoscale enhancements up the Hudson River
Valley could bring about higher helicity values as the flow aloft
backs with the approach of the front/upper trough. Highs Friday
should climb toward 80F for valley locations with mainly 70s
expected due to the cloud coverage increase.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The holiday weekend is looking fair and dry with high pressure
building in from the Midwest and Great Lakes Region Saturday...and
continuing to dominate through the Independence Day holiday.  A low
pressure system may pass far enough to the north of the Mid Atlantic
States to bring some isold-scatted showers and isold thunderstorm
early Tue into Wed.

Saturday into Independence Day...An upper level low lifts north of
NY and New England on Saturday with some isolated showers and
sprinkles north of the Mohawk Valley and the Capital Region.  High
pressure builds in from the Midwest and the Lower Great Lakes Region
with a cooler and dry air mass that extends into Sunday. Highs on
Saturday and Sunday will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s in the
valleys...and 60s to mid 70s over the hills and mountains.  Lows
both nights will mainly be in the 50s with some upper 40s over the
southern Adirondacks and southern Greens.  Humidity levels will be
very comfortable for early July.

On Independence Day...the latest GEFS/ECMWF/GFS all show the mid and
upper level flow becoming flatter and more zonal.  A low pressure
system may move along the OH valley and into the mid Atlantic Region
late in the day spreading some clouds northward towards southern NY
and southern New England. Temps increase closer to early July
normals with lower to mid 80s in the valley areas...and 70s to lower
80s over the higher terrain.  A few showers may reach the lower to
mid Hudson Valley/NW CT Mon night with lows in the 50s to lower 60s.

Tuesday into Wednesday...The air mass becomes warmer and a bit more
humid in the W to NW flow aloft.  Another disturbance may pass south
of the region with an isolated shower or thunderstorm.  It is hard
to time disturbances in the fast flow.  Highs could reach the upper
80s to lower 90s by the mid week...with upper 70s to mid 80s over
the hills and mountains.

Overall...temps will be near normal with pcpn below normal in the
long term.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper level disturbance will move east of the region this
evening. High Pressure will ridge in from lower Great Lakes
Region tonight into Thursday.

Some MVFR/IFR radiational mist/fog may form at KPSF/KGFL between
07Z-11Z/THU. The mist/fog should burn off quickly by 12Z/Thu due
to decent mixing and the strong late June sun.

West to northwest winds at 5-10 KT will become light to calm
prior to midnight. Light west to northwest winds will pick up at
between 14Z-16Z/Thu at 5-10 kts, although may be occasionally
variable in direction at KGFL due to local topographical effects.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday to Independence Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...Minimum Relative Humidities Thursday range between 30 and 40
percent...

In the wake of an upper level disturbance with isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms, high pressure will settle
into the region tonight through Thursday. A cold front will
approach and cross the region Friday accompanied by scattered
showers and thunderstorms. A calm and seasonable weather pattern
is expected for the long holiday weekend.

Winds tonight will become light and variable then become westerly
on Thursday at speeds of 10 mph or less.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts were variable across the area Tuesday and Tuesday
night ranging from less than a tenth up to localized radar
estimates of 3 to 4 inches.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will diminish into
this evening with minimal impacts expected. Dry weather is then
expected tonight through Thursday night as high pressure builds
back into the region.

A cold front will approach and cross the region Friday and Friday
night. Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area.
Some of these storms may be accompanied by heavy rainfall.

The latest drought monitor released last week has most of our
region labeled Abnormally Dry. Abnormally dry indicates dryness
but not yet in drought.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...KL/Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 292324
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
724 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
In the wake of an upper level disturbance, high pressure will
settle into the region tonight through Thursday. A cold front
will approach and cross the region Friday accompanied by
scattered showers and thunderstorms. A calm and seasonable
weather pattern is expected for the long holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 720 PM EDT, still a few isolated showers across portions of
the southern Adirondacks, including one near Lake George. Although
the main upper level disturbance has moved east of the region,
enough instability remains to allow for these isolated showers.
Will keep slight chances across the southern Adirondacks and
southern VT through around 10 PM, when the loss of daytime heating
should allow the threat for any showers to end.

Otherwise, both surface pressures and heights aloft rise with
clearing skies and light winds overnight. This would also set the
stage for some patchy fog. Overnight lows mainly into the 50s with
some upper 40s into the Adirondacks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned surface ridge and rising heights aloft should
result in a fine early summer day with plenty of sunshine and
winds 10mph or less on Thursday. Per mixing layer heights around
H850, this should yield high temperatures into the low-mid 80s for
valley locations and 75-80F for the terrain.

In this progressive pattern, a rather vigorous upper trough dives
southward across the upper plains and upper mississippi river
valley. Strengthening height falls approaches the Great Lakes
region later in the day which sets the stage for downstream return
flow of increasing moisture.

The best moisture transports remain along or just east of I95,
however, broad higher theta-e air returns northward overnight
Thursday. So some increase in cloud coverage is anticipated as
lows range between 50-60F (the warmer values toward the mid Hudson
Valley).

An active weather day may be shaping up for Friday. The upper
trough will coincide with the surface cold front with enhanced
lift/convergence through the day. While models differ with timing,
they all show strong low level convergence and height falls over
upstate New York. Instability parameters too look to support
deeper convection as Showalters drop toward -3/-4C and SBCAPES
toward 2000 J/KG. Ample bulk shear should be more than sufficient
to support organized line elements with average values around
30kts. In fact, local mesoscale enhancements up the Hudson River
Valley could bring about higher helicity values as the flow aloft
backs with the approach of the front/upper trough. Highs Friday
should climb toward 80F for valley locations with mainly 70s
expected due to the cloud coverage increase.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The holiday weekend is looking fair and dry with high pressure
building in from the Midwest and Great Lakes Region Saturday...and
continuing to dominate through the Independence Day holiday.  A low
pressure system may pass far enough to the north of the Mid Atlantic
States to bring some isold-scatted showers and isold thunderstorm
early Tue into Wed.

Saturday into Independence Day...An upper level low lifts north of
NY and New England on Saturday with some isolated showers and
sprinkles north of the Mohawk Valley and the Capital Region.  High
pressure builds in from the Midwest and the Lower Great Lakes Region
with a cooler and dry air mass that extends into Sunday. Highs on
Saturday and Sunday will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s in the
valleys...and 60s to mid 70s over the hills and mountains.  Lows
both nights will mainly be in the 50s with some upper 40s over the
southern Adirondacks and southern Greens.  Humidity levels will be
very comfortable for early July.

On Independence Day...the latest GEFS/ECMWF/GFS all show the mid and
upper level flow becoming flatter and more zonal.  A low pressure
system may move along the OH valley and into the mid Atlantic Region
late in the day spreading some clouds northward towards southern NY
and southern New England. Temps increase closer to early July
normals with lower to mid 80s in the valley areas...and 70s to lower
80s over the higher terrain.  A few showers may reach the lower to
mid Hudson Valley/NW CT Mon night with lows in the 50s to lower 60s.

Tuesday into Wednesday...The air mass becomes warmer and a bit more
humid in the W to NW flow aloft.  Another disturbance may pass south
of the region with an isolated shower or thunderstorm.  It is hard
to time disturbances in the fast flow.  Highs could reach the upper
80s to lower 90s by the mid week...with upper 70s to mid 80s over
the hills and mountains.

Overall...temps will be near normal with pcpn below normal in the
long term.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper level disturbance will move east of the region this
evening. High Pressure will ridge in from lower Great Lakes
Region tonight into Thursday.

Some MVFR/IFR radiational mist/fog may form at KPSF/KGFL between
07Z-11Z/THU. The mist/fog should burn off quickly by 12Z/Thu due
to decent mixing and the strong late June sun.

West to northwest winds at 5-10 KT will become light to calm
prior to midnight. Light west to northwest winds will pick up at
between 14Z-16Z/Thu at 5-10 kts, although may be occasionally
variable in direction at KGFL due to local topographical effects.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday to Independence Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...Minimum Relative Humidities Thursday range between 30 and 40
percent...

In the wake of an upper level disturbance with isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms, high pressure will settle
into the region tonight through Thursday. A cold front will
approach and cross the region Friday accompanied by scattered
showers and thunderstorms. A calm and seasonable weather pattern
is expected for the long holiday weekend.

Winds tonight will become light and variable then become westerly
on Thursday at speeds of 10 mph or less.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts were variable across the area Tuesday and Tuesday
night ranging from less than a tenth up to localized radar
estimates of 3 to 4 inches.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will diminish into
this evening with minimal impacts expected. Dry weather is then
expected tonight through Thursday night as high pressure builds
back into the region.

A cold front will approach and cross the region Friday and Friday
night. Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area.
Some of these storms may be accompanied by heavy rainfall.

The latest drought monitor released last week has most of our
region labeled Abnormally Dry. Abnormally dry indicates dryness
but not yet in drought.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...KL/Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM




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