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000
FXUS61 KBTV 230600
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PULLS SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION.
THEREAFTER...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE
BY NEXT MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT TUESDAY...CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO ERODE OVER
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE SLOWEST CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. ALSO...UPSTREAM CLOUDS OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC PROVINCE WILL HAVE A SHOT AT MAKING IT INTO THE AREA TOWARD
DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH SOME CONTINUED
WNWLY GRADIENT FLOW (SFC WINDS 5-8 MPH) AND AREAS OF CLOUDS...HAVE
RAISED MIN TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOW
TEMPS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW-MID 40S...WITH A FEW 30S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. LOW-LEVEL MIXING SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY FROST OR FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS. AS A
REMINDER...THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX ARRIVED AT 10:29 PM EDT THIS PAST
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER H5 TROUGH THEN LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A LARGE BLOCKING SURFACE HIGH
BRIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST HERALDING THE START OF A LONG STRETCH
OF OUTSTANDING EARLY FALL WEATHER. THUS VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES FROM TUESDAY EVENING ONWARD AS BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY
AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD SLIGHTLY WIDER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL RANGES
GIVEN RATHER DRY SOIL SURFACE MOISTURE STATES. HIGHS 58 TO 65 TUE AND
60S TO AROUND 70 WED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
TUE NT AND 40S TO AROUND 50 WED NIGHT. PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET
IN FAVORED LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. MAIN
ACTION TAKEN ON THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS WAS TO WIDEN THE DIURNAL
SWINGS...BUMPING UP DAYTIME TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES AND LOWERING
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S SATURDAY & SUNDAY. GUIDANCE MAX
TEMP ESPECIALLY LOW NEXT MONDAY WHEN IT TRENDS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY
TOO MUCH. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LOWER
HEIGHTS AND COOL TEMPS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE HAD UPPER 60S WHILE
850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT LOWER 70S. LIKEWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEEDED TO
BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY RH WILL LET
TEMPS RADIATE COOLER. NO POPS AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL CONT AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU 06Z WEDS. SFC HIGH PRES IS LOCATED ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLW ACRS OUR TAF SITES. THIS COMBINED
WITH SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY...HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS ACRS MANY OF OUR TAF SITES. PER LATEST SOUNDING DATA
EXPECT A BROKEN CLOUD DECK TODAY AT 4000 TO 6000 FEET WITH WEST
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SW TO NE ALIGNED
SLV...IMPACTING MSS. OTHERWISE...SKIES WL CLR THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS DEVELOPING AFT 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SFC HIGH PRES WL RESULT IN CLR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR WEDS
INTO THURS...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT
MPV/SLK ON THURS MORNING. SOME CLOUDS INCREASE ON THURSDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
SOUTH OF OUR TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT WINDS

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...TABER










000
FXUS61 KBTV 230600
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PULLS SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION.
THEREAFTER...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE
BY NEXT MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT TUESDAY...CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO ERODE OVER
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE SLOWEST CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. ALSO...UPSTREAM CLOUDS OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC PROVINCE WILL HAVE A SHOT AT MAKING IT INTO THE AREA TOWARD
DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH SOME CONTINUED
WNWLY GRADIENT FLOW (SFC WINDS 5-8 MPH) AND AREAS OF CLOUDS...HAVE
RAISED MIN TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOW
TEMPS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW-MID 40S...WITH A FEW 30S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. LOW-LEVEL MIXING SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY FROST OR FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS. AS A
REMINDER...THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX ARRIVED AT 10:29 PM EDT THIS PAST
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER H5 TROUGH THEN LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A LARGE BLOCKING SURFACE HIGH
BRIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST HERALDING THE START OF A LONG STRETCH
OF OUTSTANDING EARLY FALL WEATHER. THUS VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES FROM TUESDAY EVENING ONWARD AS BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY
AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD SLIGHTLY WIDER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL RANGES
GIVEN RATHER DRY SOIL SURFACE MOISTURE STATES. HIGHS 58 TO 65 TUE AND
60S TO AROUND 70 WED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
TUE NT AND 40S TO AROUND 50 WED NIGHT. PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET
IN FAVORED LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. MAIN
ACTION TAKEN ON THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS WAS TO WIDEN THE DIURNAL
SWINGS...BUMPING UP DAYTIME TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES AND LOWERING
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S SATURDAY & SUNDAY. GUIDANCE MAX
TEMP ESPECIALLY LOW NEXT MONDAY WHEN IT TRENDS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY
TOO MUCH. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LOWER
HEIGHTS AND COOL TEMPS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE HAD UPPER 60S WHILE
850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT LOWER 70S. LIKEWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEEDED TO
BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY RH WILL LET
TEMPS RADIATE COOLER. NO POPS AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL CONT AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU 06Z WEDS. SFC HIGH PRES IS LOCATED ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLW ACRS OUR TAF SITES. THIS COMBINED
WITH SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY...HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS ACRS MANY OF OUR TAF SITES. PER LATEST SOUNDING DATA
EXPECT A BROKEN CLOUD DECK TODAY AT 4000 TO 6000 FEET WITH WEST
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SW TO NE ALIGNED
SLV...IMPACTING MSS. OTHERWISE...SKIES WL CLR THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS DEVELOPING AFT 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SFC HIGH PRES WL RESULT IN CLR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR WEDS
INTO THURS...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT
MPV/SLK ON THURS MORNING. SOME CLOUDS INCREASE ON THURSDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
SOUTH OF OUR TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT WINDS

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...TABER










000
FXUS61 KBTV 230600
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PULLS SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION.
THEREAFTER...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE
BY NEXT MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT TUESDAY...CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO ERODE OVER
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE SLOWEST CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. ALSO...UPSTREAM CLOUDS OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC PROVINCE WILL HAVE A SHOT AT MAKING IT INTO THE AREA TOWARD
DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH SOME CONTINUED
WNWLY GRADIENT FLOW (SFC WINDS 5-8 MPH) AND AREAS OF CLOUDS...HAVE
RAISED MIN TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOW
TEMPS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW-MID 40S...WITH A FEW 30S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. LOW-LEVEL MIXING SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY FROST OR FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS. AS A
REMINDER...THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX ARRIVED AT 10:29 PM EDT THIS PAST
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER H5 TROUGH THEN LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A LARGE BLOCKING SURFACE HIGH
BRIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST HERALDING THE START OF A LONG STRETCH
OF OUTSTANDING EARLY FALL WEATHER. THUS VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES FROM TUESDAY EVENING ONWARD AS BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY
AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD SLIGHTLY WIDER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL RANGES
GIVEN RATHER DRY SOIL SURFACE MOISTURE STATES. HIGHS 58 TO 65 TUE AND
60S TO AROUND 70 WED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
TUE NT AND 40S TO AROUND 50 WED NIGHT. PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET
IN FAVORED LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. MAIN
ACTION TAKEN ON THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS WAS TO WIDEN THE DIURNAL
SWINGS...BUMPING UP DAYTIME TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES AND LOWERING
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S SATURDAY & SUNDAY. GUIDANCE MAX
TEMP ESPECIALLY LOW NEXT MONDAY WHEN IT TRENDS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY
TOO MUCH. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LOWER
HEIGHTS AND COOL TEMPS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE HAD UPPER 60S WHILE
850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT LOWER 70S. LIKEWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEEDED TO
BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY RH WILL LET
TEMPS RADIATE COOLER. NO POPS AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL CONT AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU 06Z WEDS. SFC HIGH PRES IS LOCATED ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLW ACRS OUR TAF SITES. THIS COMBINED
WITH SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY...HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS ACRS MANY OF OUR TAF SITES. PER LATEST SOUNDING DATA
EXPECT A BROKEN CLOUD DECK TODAY AT 4000 TO 6000 FEET WITH WEST
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SW TO NE ALIGNED
SLV...IMPACTING MSS. OTHERWISE...SKIES WL CLR THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS DEVELOPING AFT 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SFC HIGH PRES WL RESULT IN CLR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR WEDS
INTO THURS...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT
MPV/SLK ON THURS MORNING. SOME CLOUDS INCREASE ON THURSDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
SOUTH OF OUR TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT WINDS

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...TABER










000
FXUS61 KBTV 230600
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PULLS SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION.
THEREAFTER...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE
BY NEXT MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT TUESDAY...CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO ERODE OVER
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE SLOWEST CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. ALSO...UPSTREAM CLOUDS OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC PROVINCE WILL HAVE A SHOT AT MAKING IT INTO THE AREA TOWARD
DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH SOME CONTINUED
WNWLY GRADIENT FLOW (SFC WINDS 5-8 MPH) AND AREAS OF CLOUDS...HAVE
RAISED MIN TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOW
TEMPS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW-MID 40S...WITH A FEW 30S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. LOW-LEVEL MIXING SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY FROST OR FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS. AS A
REMINDER...THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX ARRIVED AT 10:29 PM EDT THIS PAST
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER H5 TROUGH THEN LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A LARGE BLOCKING SURFACE HIGH
BRIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST HERALDING THE START OF A LONG STRETCH
OF OUTSTANDING EARLY FALL WEATHER. THUS VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES FROM TUESDAY EVENING ONWARD AS BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY
AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD SLIGHTLY WIDER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL RANGES
GIVEN RATHER DRY SOIL SURFACE MOISTURE STATES. HIGHS 58 TO 65 TUE AND
60S TO AROUND 70 WED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
TUE NT AND 40S TO AROUND 50 WED NIGHT. PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET
IN FAVORED LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. MAIN
ACTION TAKEN ON THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS WAS TO WIDEN THE DIURNAL
SWINGS...BUMPING UP DAYTIME TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES AND LOWERING
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S SATURDAY & SUNDAY. GUIDANCE MAX
TEMP ESPECIALLY LOW NEXT MONDAY WHEN IT TRENDS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY
TOO MUCH. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LOWER
HEIGHTS AND COOL TEMPS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE HAD UPPER 60S WHILE
850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT LOWER 70S. LIKEWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEEDED TO
BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY RH WILL LET
TEMPS RADIATE COOLER. NO POPS AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WL CONT AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU 06Z WEDS. SFC HIGH PRES IS LOCATED ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLW ACRS OUR TAF SITES. THIS COMBINED
WITH SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY...HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS ACRS MANY OF OUR TAF SITES. PER LATEST SOUNDING DATA
EXPECT A BROKEN CLOUD DECK TODAY AT 4000 TO 6000 FEET WITH WEST
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SW TO NE ALIGNED
SLV...IMPACTING MSS. OTHERWISE...SKIES WL CLR THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS DEVELOPING AFT 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SFC HIGH PRES WL RESULT IN CLR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR WEDS
INTO THURS...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT
MPV/SLK ON THURS MORNING. SOME CLOUDS INCREASE ON THURSDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD STAY
SOUTH OF OUR TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT WINDS

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...TABER









  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 230528
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A COOL START
TUESDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS
WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...ONLY SOME PATCHY CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ALSO ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE CENTRAL TACONICS. THESE AREAS WILL
REMAIN TO OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF CLOUDS THROUGH DAYBREAK...ALTHOUGH
IT APPEARS THAT THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY ERODE. IN VALLEY AREAS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL.

WINDS HAVE TRENDED TO NEAR CALM IN MANY VALLEY AREAS...WHICH IN
COMBINATION WITH CLEAR SKIES...HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER/MID 40S. STILL EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER
30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...WITH GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
ELSEWHERE.

SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY...AND POSSIBLE SE VT TOWARD DAYBREAK. IN
ADDITION...PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN SOME RIVER
VALLEYS...AND OTHER AREAS ADJACENT TO BODIES OF WATER TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM THE MIDWEST TOMORROW TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE DRY WEATHER...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY BE WARMER EACH DAY. VALLEY MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TOMORROW...NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY...AND LOW
70S FOR THURSDAY. HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S
THROUGH THE WEEK. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT AS WELL...AS COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE FORECASTED AS
WELL...WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR BOTH TUES/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. AT THIS
TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND OF AROUND 80 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY UP INTO THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT KALB AND KPSF EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
EXIT. CALM TO LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING TO DEW POINTS...
ALONG WITH SOME STEAM FOG OFF RIVERS AND SWAMPS COULD BRING SOME
INTERVALS OF MVFR FOG TO KALB...KPSF AND KGFL BETWEEN 08Z-12Z...
MAYBE NOT BUT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO INCLUDE A TEMPO. OTHERWISE...
AGAIN...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LIGHT WINDS AT 3 KT OR LESS THROUGH SUNRISE SHOULD BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME
FOG/DEW/FROST FORMATION POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE GUSTY THIS
EVENING...THEY WILL DIMINISH TO CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 70 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.  RH VALUES WILL AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT WITH DEW AND FOG FORMATION AND CALM WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY
THROUGH THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 230528
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A COOL START
TUESDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS
WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...ONLY SOME PATCHY CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ALSO ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE CENTRAL TACONICS. THESE AREAS WILL
REMAIN TO OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF CLOUDS THROUGH DAYBREAK...ALTHOUGH
IT APPEARS THAT THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY ERODE. IN VALLEY AREAS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL.

WINDS HAVE TRENDED TO NEAR CALM IN MANY VALLEY AREAS...WHICH IN
COMBINATION WITH CLEAR SKIES...HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER/MID 40S. STILL EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER
30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...WITH GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
ELSEWHERE.

SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY...AND POSSIBLE SE VT TOWARD DAYBREAK. IN
ADDITION...PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN SOME RIVER
VALLEYS...AND OTHER AREAS ADJACENT TO BODIES OF WATER TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM THE MIDWEST TOMORROW TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE DRY WEATHER...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY BE WARMER EACH DAY. VALLEY MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TOMORROW...NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY...AND LOW
70S FOR THURSDAY. HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S
THROUGH THE WEEK. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT AS WELL...AS COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE FORECASTED AS
WELL...WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR BOTH TUES/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. AT THIS
TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND OF AROUND 80 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY UP INTO THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT KALB AND KPSF EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
EXIT. CALM TO LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING TO DEW POINTS...
ALONG WITH SOME STEAM FOG OFF RIVERS AND SWAMPS COULD BRING SOME
INTERVALS OF MVFR FOG TO KALB...KPSF AND KGFL BETWEEN 08Z-12Z...
MAYBE NOT BUT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO INCLUDE A TEMPO. OTHERWISE...
AGAIN...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LIGHT WINDS AT 3 KT OR LESS THROUGH SUNRISE SHOULD BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME
FOG/DEW/FROST FORMATION POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE GUSTY THIS
EVENING...THEY WILL DIMINISH TO CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 70 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.  RH VALUES WILL AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT WITH DEW AND FOG FORMATION AND CALM WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY
THROUGH THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 230458
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1258 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PULLS SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION.
THEREAFTER...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE
BY NEXT MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT TUESDAY...CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO ERODE OVER
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE SLOWEST CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. ALSO...UPSTREAM CLOUDS OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC PROVINCE WILL HAVE A SHOT AT MAKING IT INTO THE AREA TOWARD
DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH SOME CONTINUED
WNWLY GRADIENT FLOW (SFC WINDS 5-8 MPH) AND AREAS OF CLOUDS...HAVE
RAISED MIN TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOW
TEMPS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW-MID 40S...WITH A FEW 30S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. LOW-LEVEL MIXING SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY FROST OR FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS. AS A
REMINDER...THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX ARRIVED AT 10:29 PM EDT THIS PAST
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER H5 TROUGH THEN LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A LARGE BLOCKING SURFACE HIGH
BRIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST HERALDING THE START OF A LONG STRETCH
OF OUTSTANDING EARLY FALL WEATHER. THUS VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES FROM TUESDAY EVENING ONWARD AS BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY
AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD SLIGHTLY WIDER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL RANGES
GIVEN RATHER DRY SOIL SURFACE MOISTURE STATES. HIGHS 58 TO 65 TUE AND
60S TO AROUND 70 WED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
TUE NT AND 40S TO AROUND 50 WED NIGHT. PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET
IN FAVORED LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. MAIN
ACTION TAKEN ON THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS WAS TO WIDEN THE DIURNAL
SWINGS...BUMPING UP DAYTIME TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES AND LOWERING
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S SATURDAY & SUNDAY. GUIDANCE MAX
TEMP ESPECIALLY LOW NEXT MONDAY WHEN IT TRENDS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY
TOO MUCH. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LOWER
HEIGHTS AND COOL TEMPS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE HAD UPPER 60S WHILE
850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT LOWER 70S. LIKEWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEEDED TO
BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY RH WILL LET
TEMPS RADIATE COOLER. NO POPS AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 00Z TUESDAY. SURFACE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE REGION.
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES WILL
BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG AT KSLK/KMPV EACH
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON







000
FXUS61 KBTV 230458
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1258 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PULLS SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION.
THEREAFTER...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE
BY NEXT MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT TUESDAY...CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO ERODE OVER
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE SLOWEST CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. ALSO...UPSTREAM CLOUDS OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC PROVINCE WILL HAVE A SHOT AT MAKING IT INTO THE AREA TOWARD
DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH SOME CONTINUED
WNWLY GRADIENT FLOW (SFC WINDS 5-8 MPH) AND AREAS OF CLOUDS...HAVE
RAISED MIN TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOW
TEMPS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW-MID 40S...WITH A FEW 30S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. LOW-LEVEL MIXING SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY FROST OR FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS. AS A
REMINDER...THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX ARRIVED AT 10:29 PM EDT THIS PAST
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER H5 TROUGH THEN LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A LARGE BLOCKING SURFACE HIGH
BRIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST HERALDING THE START OF A LONG STRETCH
OF OUTSTANDING EARLY FALL WEATHER. THUS VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES FROM TUESDAY EVENING ONWARD AS BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY
AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD SLIGHTLY WIDER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL RANGES
GIVEN RATHER DRY SOIL SURFACE MOISTURE STATES. HIGHS 58 TO 65 TUE AND
60S TO AROUND 70 WED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
TUE NT AND 40S TO AROUND 50 WED NIGHT. PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET
IN FAVORED LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. MAIN
ACTION TAKEN ON THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS WAS TO WIDEN THE DIURNAL
SWINGS...BUMPING UP DAYTIME TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES AND LOWERING
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S SATURDAY & SUNDAY. GUIDANCE MAX
TEMP ESPECIALLY LOW NEXT MONDAY WHEN IT TRENDS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY
TOO MUCH. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LOWER
HEIGHTS AND COOL TEMPS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE HAD UPPER 60S WHILE
850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT LOWER 70S. LIKEWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEEDED TO
BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY RH WILL LET
TEMPS RADIATE COOLER. NO POPS AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 00Z TUESDAY. SURFACE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE REGION.
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES WILL
BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG AT KSLK/KMPV EACH
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON








000
FXUS61 KALY 230250
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1050 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A COOL START
TUESDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS
WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK...MAINLY ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO FROM THE WEST.
WESTERLY FLOW IS RATHER LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA HOWEVER
CONTINUES TO BE GUSTY ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
HERE OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. HAVE PATCHY FROST MENTIONED FOR AREAS WHERE LOWS WILL GET
INTO THE MID 30S AND THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ONGOING.

THE GROWING SEASON ENDED FRIDAY MORNING SEPTEMBER 19TH ACROSS
NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM THE MIDWEST TOMORROW TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE DRY WEATHER...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY BE WARMER EACH DAY. VALLEY MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TOMORROW...NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY...AND LOW
70S FOR THURSDAY. HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S
THROUGH THE WEEK. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT AS WELL...AS COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE FORECASTED AS
WELL...WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR BOTH TUES/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. AT THIS
TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND OF AROUND 80 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY UP INTO THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...00Z/WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AND WINDS ARE DIMINISHING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. WESTERLY
WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT KGFL WHERE THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.

THE STRATOCU CLOUDS OVER THE MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.
FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME
FOG/DEW/FROST FORMATION POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE GUSTY THIS
EVENING...THEY WILL DIMINISH TO CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 70 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.  RH VALUES WILL AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT WITH DEW AND FOG FORMATION AND CALM WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY
THROUGH THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 230250
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1050 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A COOL START
TUESDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS
WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK...MAINLY ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO FROM THE WEST.
WESTERLY FLOW IS RATHER LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA HOWEVER
CONTINUES TO BE GUSTY ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
HERE OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. HAVE PATCHY FROST MENTIONED FOR AREAS WHERE LOWS WILL GET
INTO THE MID 30S AND THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ONGOING.

THE GROWING SEASON ENDED FRIDAY MORNING SEPTEMBER 19TH ACROSS
NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM THE MIDWEST TOMORROW TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE DRY WEATHER...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY BE WARMER EACH DAY. VALLEY MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TOMORROW...NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY...AND LOW
70S FOR THURSDAY. HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S
THROUGH THE WEEK. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT AS WELL...AS COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE FORECASTED AS
WELL...WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR BOTH TUES/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. AT THIS
TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND OF AROUND 80 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY UP INTO THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...00Z/WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AND WINDS ARE DIMINISHING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. WESTERLY
WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT KGFL WHERE THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.

THE STRATOCU CLOUDS OVER THE MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.
FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME
FOG/DEW/FROST FORMATION POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE GUSTY THIS
EVENING...THEY WILL DIMINISH TO CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 70 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.  RH VALUES WILL AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT WITH DEW AND FOG FORMATION AND CALM WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY
THROUGH THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 230250
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1050 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A COOL START
TUESDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS
WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK...MAINLY ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO FROM THE WEST.
WESTERLY FLOW IS RATHER LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA HOWEVER
CONTINUES TO BE GUSTY ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
HERE OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. HAVE PATCHY FROST MENTIONED FOR AREAS WHERE LOWS WILL GET
INTO THE MID 30S AND THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ONGOING.

THE GROWING SEASON ENDED FRIDAY MORNING SEPTEMBER 19TH ACROSS
NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM THE MIDWEST TOMORROW TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE DRY WEATHER...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY BE WARMER EACH DAY. VALLEY MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TOMORROW...NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY...AND LOW
70S FOR THURSDAY. HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S
THROUGH THE WEEK. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT AS WELL...AS COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE FORECASTED AS
WELL...WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR BOTH TUES/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. AT THIS
TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND OF AROUND 80 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY UP INTO THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...00Z/WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AND WINDS ARE DIMINISHING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. WESTERLY
WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT KGFL WHERE THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.

THE STRATOCU CLOUDS OVER THE MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.
FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME
FOG/DEW/FROST FORMATION POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE GUSTY THIS
EVENING...THEY WILL DIMINISH TO CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 70 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.  RH VALUES WILL AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT WITH DEW AND FOG FORMATION AND CALM WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY
THROUGH THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 230250
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1050 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A COOL START
TUESDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS
WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK...MAINLY ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO FROM THE WEST.
WESTERLY FLOW IS RATHER LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA HOWEVER
CONTINUES TO BE GUSTY ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
HERE OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. HAVE PATCHY FROST MENTIONED FOR AREAS WHERE LOWS WILL GET
INTO THE MID 30S AND THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ONGOING.

THE GROWING SEASON ENDED FRIDAY MORNING SEPTEMBER 19TH ACROSS
NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM THE MIDWEST TOMORROW TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE DRY WEATHER...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY BE WARMER EACH DAY. VALLEY MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TOMORROW...NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY...AND LOW
70S FOR THURSDAY. HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S
THROUGH THE WEEK. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT AS WELL...AS COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE FORECASTED AS
WELL...WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR BOTH TUES/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. AT THIS
TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND OF AROUND 80 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY UP INTO THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...00Z/WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AND WINDS ARE DIMINISHING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. WESTERLY
WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT KGFL WHERE THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.

THE STRATOCU CLOUDS OVER THE MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.
FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME
FOG/DEW/FROST FORMATION POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE GUSTY THIS
EVENING...THEY WILL DIMINISH TO CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 70 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.  RH VALUES WILL AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT WITH DEW AND FOG FORMATION AND CALM WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY
THROUGH THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 230203
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1003 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PULLS SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION.
THEREAFTER...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE
BY NEXT MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1003 PM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO ERODE OVER
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE SLOWEST CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. ALSO...UPSTREAM CLOUDS OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC PROVINCE WILL HAVE A SHOT AT MAKING IT INTO THE AREA TOWARD
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. FORECAST LOWS OF
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S LOOKS READ GOOD AND NO CHANGES NEEDED THERE.
MOST OF THE COOLER READINGS TONIGHT ARE IN AREAS WHERE A NOTICEABLE
FROST AND OR FREEZE HAS OCCURRED. AS A REMINDER...THE AUTUMNAL
EQUINOX ARRIVES AT 10:29 PM EDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER H5 TROUGH THEN LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A LARGE BLOCKING SURFACE HIGH
BRIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST HERALDING THE START OF A LONG STRETCH
OF OUTSTANDING EARLY FALL WEATHER. THUS VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES FROM TUESDAY EVENING ONWARD AS BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY
AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD SLIGHTLY WIDER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL RANGES
GIVEN RATHER DRY SOIL SURFACE MOISTURE STATES. HIGHS 58 TO 65 TUE AND
60S TO AROUND 70 WED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
TUE NT AND 40S TO AROUND 50 WED NIGHT. PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET
IN FAVORED LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. MAIN
ACTION TAKEN ON THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS WAS TO WIDEN THE DIURNAL
SWINGS...BUMPING UP DAYTIME TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES AND LOWERING
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S SATURDAY & SUNDAY. GUIDANCE MAX
TEMP ESPECIALLY LOW NEXT MONDAY WHEN IT TRENDS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY
TOO MUCH. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LOWER
HEIGHTS AND COOL TEMPS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE HAD UPPER 60S WHILE
850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT LOWER 70S. LIKEWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEEDED TO
BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY RH WILL LET
TEMPS RADIATE COOLER. NO POPS AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 00Z TUESDAY. SURFACE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE REGION.
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES WILL
BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG AT KSLK/KMPV EACH
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON








000
FXUS61 KBTV 230203
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1003 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PULLS SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION.
THEREAFTER...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE
BY NEXT MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1003 PM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO ERODE OVER
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE SLOWEST CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. ALSO...UPSTREAM CLOUDS OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC PROVINCE WILL HAVE A SHOT AT MAKING IT INTO THE AREA TOWARD
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. FORECAST LOWS OF
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S LOOKS READ GOOD AND NO CHANGES NEEDED THERE.
MOST OF THE COOLER READINGS TONIGHT ARE IN AREAS WHERE A NOTICEABLE
FROST AND OR FREEZE HAS OCCURRED. AS A REMINDER...THE AUTUMNAL
EQUINOX ARRIVES AT 10:29 PM EDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER H5 TROUGH THEN LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A LARGE BLOCKING SURFACE HIGH
BRIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST HERALDING THE START OF A LONG STRETCH
OF OUTSTANDING EARLY FALL WEATHER. THUS VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES FROM TUESDAY EVENING ONWARD AS BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY
AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD SLIGHTLY WIDER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL RANGES
GIVEN RATHER DRY SOIL SURFACE MOISTURE STATES. HIGHS 58 TO 65 TUE AND
60S TO AROUND 70 WED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
TUE NT AND 40S TO AROUND 50 WED NIGHT. PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET
IN FAVORED LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. MAIN
ACTION TAKEN ON THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS WAS TO WIDEN THE DIURNAL
SWINGS...BUMPING UP DAYTIME TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES AND LOWERING
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S SATURDAY & SUNDAY. GUIDANCE MAX
TEMP ESPECIALLY LOW NEXT MONDAY WHEN IT TRENDS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY
TOO MUCH. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LOWER
HEIGHTS AND COOL TEMPS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE HAD UPPER 60S WHILE
850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT LOWER 70S. LIKEWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEEDED TO
BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY RH WILL LET
TEMPS RADIATE COOLER. NO POPS AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 00Z TUESDAY. SURFACE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE REGION.
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES WILL
BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG AT KSLK/KMPV EACH
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON








000
FXUS61 KBTV 230203
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1003 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PULLS SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION.
THEREAFTER...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE
BY NEXT MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1003 PM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO ERODE OVER
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE SLOWEST CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. ALSO...UPSTREAM CLOUDS OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC PROVINCE WILL HAVE A SHOT AT MAKING IT INTO THE AREA TOWARD
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. FORECAST LOWS OF
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S LOOKS READ GOOD AND NO CHANGES NEEDED THERE.
MOST OF THE COOLER READINGS TONIGHT ARE IN AREAS WHERE A NOTICEABLE
FROST AND OR FREEZE HAS OCCURRED. AS A REMINDER...THE AUTUMNAL
EQUINOX ARRIVES AT 10:29 PM EDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER H5 TROUGH THEN LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A LARGE BLOCKING SURFACE HIGH
BRIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST HERALDING THE START OF A LONG STRETCH
OF OUTSTANDING EARLY FALL WEATHER. THUS VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES FROM TUESDAY EVENING ONWARD AS BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY
AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD SLIGHTLY WIDER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL RANGES
GIVEN RATHER DRY SOIL SURFACE MOISTURE STATES. HIGHS 58 TO 65 TUE AND
60S TO AROUND 70 WED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
TUE NT AND 40S TO AROUND 50 WED NIGHT. PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET
IN FAVORED LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. MAIN
ACTION TAKEN ON THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS WAS TO WIDEN THE DIURNAL
SWINGS...BUMPING UP DAYTIME TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES AND LOWERING
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S SATURDAY & SUNDAY. GUIDANCE MAX
TEMP ESPECIALLY LOW NEXT MONDAY WHEN IT TRENDS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY
TOO MUCH. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LOWER
HEIGHTS AND COOL TEMPS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE HAD UPPER 60S WHILE
850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT LOWER 70S. LIKEWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEEDED TO
BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY RH WILL LET
TEMPS RADIATE COOLER. NO POPS AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 00Z TUESDAY. SURFACE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE REGION.
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES WILL
BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG AT KSLK/KMPV EACH
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON








000
FXUS61 KBTV 230203
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1003 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PULLS SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION.
THEREAFTER...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE
BY NEXT MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1003 PM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO ERODE OVER
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE SLOWEST CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. ALSO...UPSTREAM CLOUDS OVER WESTERN
QUEBEC PROVINCE WILL HAVE A SHOT AT MAKING IT INTO THE AREA TOWARD
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. FORECAST LOWS OF
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S LOOKS READ GOOD AND NO CHANGES NEEDED THERE.
MOST OF THE COOLER READINGS TONIGHT ARE IN AREAS WHERE A NOTICEABLE
FROST AND OR FREEZE HAS OCCURRED. AS A REMINDER...THE AUTUMNAL
EQUINOX ARRIVES AT 10:29 PM EDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER H5 TROUGH THEN LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A LARGE BLOCKING SURFACE HIGH
BRIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST HERALDING THE START OF A LONG STRETCH
OF OUTSTANDING EARLY FALL WEATHER. THUS VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES FROM TUESDAY EVENING ONWARD AS BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY
AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD SLIGHTLY WIDER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL RANGES
GIVEN RATHER DRY SOIL SURFACE MOISTURE STATES. HIGHS 58 TO 65 TUE AND
60S TO AROUND 70 WED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
TUE NT AND 40S TO AROUND 50 WED NIGHT. PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET
IN FAVORED LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. MAIN
ACTION TAKEN ON THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS WAS TO WIDEN THE DIURNAL
SWINGS...BUMPING UP DAYTIME TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES AND LOWERING
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S SATURDAY & SUNDAY. GUIDANCE MAX
TEMP ESPECIALLY LOW NEXT MONDAY WHEN IT TRENDS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY
TOO MUCH. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LOWER
HEIGHTS AND COOL TEMPS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE HAD UPPER 60S WHILE
850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT LOWER 70S. LIKEWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEEDED TO
BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY RH WILL LET
TEMPS RADIATE COOLER. NO POPS AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 00Z TUESDAY. SURFACE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE REGION.
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES WILL
BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG AT KSLK/KMPV EACH
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON








000
FXUS61 KBTV 230031
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
831 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PULLS SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION.
THEREAFTER...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE
BY NEXT MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 644 PM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS STILL HOLDING STRONG THIS EVENING
AND THUS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT EVERYTHING ON TRACK FOR THE SKY
COVER OVERNIGHT. WINDS TO EVENTUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST
LOWS OF LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S LOOKS READ GOOD. MOST OF THE COOLER
READINGS TONIGHT ARE IN AREAS WHERE A NOTICEABLE FROST AND OR
FREEZE HAS OCCURRED. AS A REMINDER...THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX ARRIVES
AT 10:29 PM EDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER H5 TROUGH THEN LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A LARGE BLOCKING SURFACE HIGH
BRIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST HERALDING THE START OF A LONG STRETCH
OF OUTSTANDING EARLY FALL WEATHER. THUS VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES FROM TUESDAY EVENING ONWARD AS BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY
AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD SLIGHTLY WIDER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL RANGES
GIVEN RATHER DRY SOIL SURFACE MOISTURE STATES. HIGHS 58 TO 65 TUE AND
60S TO AROUND 70 WED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
TUE NT AND 40S TO AROUND 50 WED NIGHT. PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET
IN FAVORED LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. MAIN
ACTION TAKEN ON THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS WAS TO WIDEN THE DIURNAL
SWINGS...BUMPING UP DAYTIME TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES AND LOWERING
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S SATURDAY & SUNDAY. GUIDANCE MAX
TEMP ESPECIALLY LOW NEXT MONDAY WHEN IT TRENDS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY
TOO MUCH. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LOWER
HEIGHTS AND COOL TEMPS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE HAD UPPER 60S WHILE
850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT LOWER 70S. LIKEWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEEDED TO
BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY RH WILL LET
TEMPS RADIATE COOLER. NO POPS AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 00Z TUESDAY. SURFACE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE REGION.
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES WILL
BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG AT KSLK/KMPV EACH
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE LAKE WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 5
TO 10 KNOT RANGE. THUS THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED
AS WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE FROM THE WEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON
MARINE...EVENSON








000
FXUS61 KBTV 230031
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
831 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PULLS SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION.
THEREAFTER...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE
BY NEXT MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 644 PM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS STILL HOLDING STRONG THIS EVENING
AND THUS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT EVERYTHING ON TRACK FOR THE SKY
COVER OVERNIGHT. WINDS TO EVENTUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST
LOWS OF LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S LOOKS READ GOOD. MOST OF THE COOLER
READINGS TONIGHT ARE IN AREAS WHERE A NOTICEABLE FROST AND OR
FREEZE HAS OCCURRED. AS A REMINDER...THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX ARRIVES
AT 10:29 PM EDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER H5 TROUGH THEN LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A LARGE BLOCKING SURFACE HIGH
BRIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST HERALDING THE START OF A LONG STRETCH
OF OUTSTANDING EARLY FALL WEATHER. THUS VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES FROM TUESDAY EVENING ONWARD AS BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY
AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD SLIGHTLY WIDER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL RANGES
GIVEN RATHER DRY SOIL SURFACE MOISTURE STATES. HIGHS 58 TO 65 TUE AND
60S TO AROUND 70 WED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
TUE NT AND 40S TO AROUND 50 WED NIGHT. PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET
IN FAVORED LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. MAIN
ACTION TAKEN ON THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS WAS TO WIDEN THE DIURNAL
SWINGS...BUMPING UP DAYTIME TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES AND LOWERING
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S SATURDAY & SUNDAY. GUIDANCE MAX
TEMP ESPECIALLY LOW NEXT MONDAY WHEN IT TRENDS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY
TOO MUCH. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LOWER
HEIGHTS AND COOL TEMPS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE HAD UPPER 60S WHILE
850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT LOWER 70S. LIKEWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEEDED TO
BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY RH WILL LET
TEMPS RADIATE COOLER. NO POPS AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 00Z TUESDAY. SURFACE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE REGION.
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES WILL
BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG AT KSLK/KMPV EACH
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE LAKE WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 5
TO 10 KNOT RANGE. THUS THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED
AS WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE FROM THE WEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON
MARINE...EVENSON








000
FXUS61 KBTV 230031
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
831 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PULLS SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION.
THEREAFTER...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE
BY NEXT MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 644 PM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS STILL HOLDING STRONG THIS EVENING
AND THUS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT EVERYTHING ON TRACK FOR THE SKY
COVER OVERNIGHT. WINDS TO EVENTUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST
LOWS OF LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S LOOKS READ GOOD. MOST OF THE COOLER
READINGS TONIGHT ARE IN AREAS WHERE A NOTICEABLE FROST AND OR
FREEZE HAS OCCURRED. AS A REMINDER...THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX ARRIVES
AT 10:29 PM EDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER H5 TROUGH THEN LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A LARGE BLOCKING SURFACE HIGH
BRIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST HERALDING THE START OF A LONG STRETCH
OF OUTSTANDING EARLY FALL WEATHER. THUS VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES FROM TUESDAY EVENING ONWARD AS BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY
AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD SLIGHTLY WIDER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL RANGES
GIVEN RATHER DRY SOIL SURFACE MOISTURE STATES. HIGHS 58 TO 65 TUE AND
60S TO AROUND 70 WED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
TUE NT AND 40S TO AROUND 50 WED NIGHT. PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET
IN FAVORED LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. MAIN
ACTION TAKEN ON THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS WAS TO WIDEN THE DIURNAL
SWINGS...BUMPING UP DAYTIME TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES AND LOWERING
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S SATURDAY & SUNDAY. GUIDANCE MAX
TEMP ESPECIALLY LOW NEXT MONDAY WHEN IT TRENDS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY
TOO MUCH. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LOWER
HEIGHTS AND COOL TEMPS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE HAD UPPER 60S WHILE
850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT LOWER 70S. LIKEWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEEDED TO
BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY RH WILL LET
TEMPS RADIATE COOLER. NO POPS AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 00Z TUESDAY. SURFACE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE REGION.
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES WILL
BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG AT KSLK/KMPV EACH
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE LAKE WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 5
TO 10 KNOT RANGE. THUS THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED
AS WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE FROM THE WEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON
MARINE...EVENSON








000
FXUS61 KBTV 230031
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
831 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PULLS SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION.
THEREAFTER...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE
BY NEXT MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 644 PM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS STILL HOLDING STRONG THIS EVENING
AND THUS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT EVERYTHING ON TRACK FOR THE SKY
COVER OVERNIGHT. WINDS TO EVENTUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST
LOWS OF LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S LOOKS READ GOOD. MOST OF THE COOLER
READINGS TONIGHT ARE IN AREAS WHERE A NOTICEABLE FROST AND OR
FREEZE HAS OCCURRED. AS A REMINDER...THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX ARRIVES
AT 10:29 PM EDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER H5 TROUGH THEN LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A LARGE BLOCKING SURFACE HIGH
BRIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST HERALDING THE START OF A LONG STRETCH
OF OUTSTANDING EARLY FALL WEATHER. THUS VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES FROM TUESDAY EVENING ONWARD AS BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY
AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD SLIGHTLY WIDER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL RANGES
GIVEN RATHER DRY SOIL SURFACE MOISTURE STATES. HIGHS 58 TO 65 TUE AND
60S TO AROUND 70 WED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
TUE NT AND 40S TO AROUND 50 WED NIGHT. PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET
IN FAVORED LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. MAIN
ACTION TAKEN ON THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS WAS TO WIDEN THE DIURNAL
SWINGS...BUMPING UP DAYTIME TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES AND LOWERING
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S SATURDAY & SUNDAY. GUIDANCE MAX
TEMP ESPECIALLY LOW NEXT MONDAY WHEN IT TRENDS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY
TOO MUCH. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LOWER
HEIGHTS AND COOL TEMPS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE HAD UPPER 60S WHILE
850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT LOWER 70S. LIKEWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEEDED TO
BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY RH WILL LET
TEMPS RADIATE COOLER. NO POPS AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 00Z TUESDAY. SURFACE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE REGION.
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES WILL
BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG AT KSLK/KMPV EACH
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE LAKE WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 5
TO 10 KNOT RANGE. THUS THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED
AS WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE FROM THE WEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON
MARINE...EVENSON








000
FXUS61 KALY 230009
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
809 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
AFTER A COOL START TOMORROW MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSE
TO NORMAL LEVELS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AND WINDS ARE DIMINISHING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE.

THE STRATOCU CLOUDS OVER THE MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. HAVE PATCHY FROST MENTIONED FOR AREAS WHERE LOWS WILL GET
INTO THE MID 30S AND THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ONGOING.

THE GROWING SEASON ENDED FRIDAY MORNING SEPTEMBER 19TH ACROSS
NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM THE MIDWEST TOMORROW TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE DRY WEATHER...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY BE WARMER EACH DAY. VALLEY MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TOMORROW...NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY...AND LOW
70S FOR THURSDAY. HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S
THROUGH THE WEEK. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT AS WELL...AS COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE FORECASTED AS
WELL...WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR BOTH TUES/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. AT THIS
TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND OF AROUND 80 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY UP INTO THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...00Z/WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AND WINDS ARE DIMINISHING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. WESTERLY
WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT KGFL WHERE THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.

THE STRATOCU CLOUDS OVER THE MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.
FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME
FOG/DEW/FROST FORMATION POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE GUSTY THIS
EVENING...THEY WILL DIMINISH TO CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 70 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.  RH VALUES WILL AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT WITH DEW AND FOG FORMATION AND CALM WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY
THROUGH THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 230009
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
809 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
AFTER A COOL START TOMORROW MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSE
TO NORMAL LEVELS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AND WINDS ARE DIMINISHING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE.

THE STRATOCU CLOUDS OVER THE MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. HAVE PATCHY FROST MENTIONED FOR AREAS WHERE LOWS WILL GET
INTO THE MID 30S AND THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ONGOING.

THE GROWING SEASON ENDED FRIDAY MORNING SEPTEMBER 19TH ACROSS
NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM THE MIDWEST TOMORROW TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE DRY WEATHER...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY BE WARMER EACH DAY. VALLEY MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TOMORROW...NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY...AND LOW
70S FOR THURSDAY. HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S
THROUGH THE WEEK. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT AS WELL...AS COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE FORECASTED AS
WELL...WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR BOTH TUES/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. AT THIS
TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND OF AROUND 80 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY UP INTO THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...00Z/WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AND WINDS ARE DIMINISHING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. WESTERLY
WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT KGFL WHERE THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.

THE STRATOCU CLOUDS OVER THE MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.
FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME
FOG/DEW/FROST FORMATION POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE GUSTY THIS
EVENING...THEY WILL DIMINISH TO CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 70 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.  RH VALUES WILL AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT WITH DEW AND FOG FORMATION AND CALM WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY
THROUGH THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 230009
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
809 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
AFTER A COOL START TOMORROW MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSE
TO NORMAL LEVELS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AND WINDS ARE DIMINISHING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE.

THE STRATOCU CLOUDS OVER THE MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. HAVE PATCHY FROST MENTIONED FOR AREAS WHERE LOWS WILL GET
INTO THE MID 30S AND THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ONGOING.

THE GROWING SEASON ENDED FRIDAY MORNING SEPTEMBER 19TH ACROSS
NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM THE MIDWEST TOMORROW TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE DRY WEATHER...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY BE WARMER EACH DAY. VALLEY MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TOMORROW...NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY...AND LOW
70S FOR THURSDAY. HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S
THROUGH THE WEEK. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT AS WELL...AS COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE FORECASTED AS
WELL...WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR BOTH TUES/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. AT THIS
TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND OF AROUND 80 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY UP INTO THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...00Z/WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AND WINDS ARE DIMINISHING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. WESTERLY
WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT KGFL WHERE THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.

THE STRATOCU CLOUDS OVER THE MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.
FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME
FOG/DEW/FROST FORMATION POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE GUSTY THIS
EVENING...THEY WILL DIMINISH TO CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 70 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.  RH VALUES WILL AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT WITH DEW AND FOG FORMATION AND CALM WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY
THROUGH THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 230009
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
809 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
AFTER A COOL START TOMORROW MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSE
TO NORMAL LEVELS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AND WINDS ARE DIMINISHING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE.

THE STRATOCU CLOUDS OVER THE MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. HAVE PATCHY FROST MENTIONED FOR AREAS WHERE LOWS WILL GET
INTO THE MID 30S AND THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ONGOING.

THE GROWING SEASON ENDED FRIDAY MORNING SEPTEMBER 19TH ACROSS
NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM THE MIDWEST TOMORROW TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE DRY WEATHER...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY BE WARMER EACH DAY. VALLEY MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TOMORROW...NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY...AND LOW
70S FOR THURSDAY. HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S
THROUGH THE WEEK. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT AS WELL...AS COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE FORECASTED AS
WELL...WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR BOTH TUES/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. AT THIS
TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND OF AROUND 80 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY UP INTO THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...00Z/WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AND WINDS ARE DIMINISHING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. WESTERLY
WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT KGFL WHERE THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.

THE STRATOCU CLOUDS OVER THE MAINLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.
FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME
FOG/DEW/FROST FORMATION POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE GUSTY THIS
EVENING...THEY WILL DIMINISH TO CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 70 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.  RH VALUES WILL AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT WITH DEW AND FOG FORMATION AND CALM WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY
THROUGH THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 230003
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
803 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PULLS SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION.
THEREAFTER...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE
BY NEXT MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 644 PM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS STILL HOLDING STRONG THIS EVENING
AND THUS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT EVERYTHING ON TRACK FOR THE SKY
COVER OVERNIGHT. WINDS TO EVENTUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST
LOWS OF LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S LOOKS READ GOOD. MOST OF THE COOLER
READINGS TONIGHT ARE IN AREAS WHERE A NOTICEABLE FROST AND OR
FREEZE HAS OCCURRED. AS A REMINDER...THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX ARRIVES
AT 10:29 PM EDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER H5 TROUGH THEN LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A LARGE BLOCKING SURFACE HIGH
BRIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST HERALDING THE START OF A LONG STRETCH
OF OUTSTANDING EARLY FALL WEATHER. THUS VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES FROM TUESDAY EVENING ONWARD AS BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY
AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD SLIGHTLY WIDER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL RANGES
GIVEN RATHER DRY SOIL SURFACE MOISTURE STATES. HIGHS 58 TO 65 TUE AND
60S TO AROUND 70 WED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
TUE NT AND 40S TO AROUND 50 WED NIGHT. PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET
IN FAVORED LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. MAIN
ACTION TAKEN ON THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS WAS TO WIDEN THE DIURNAL
SWINGS...BUMPING UP DAYTIME TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES AND LOWERING
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S SATURDAY & SUNDAY. GUIDANCE MAX
TEMP ESPECIALLY LOW NEXT MONDAY WHEN IT TRENDS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY
TOO MUCH. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LOWER
HEIGHTS AND COOL TEMPS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE HAD UPPER 60S WHILE
850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT LOWER 70S. LIKEWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEEDED TO
BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY RH WILL LET
TEMPS RADIATE COOLER. NO POPS AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 00Z TUESDAY. SURFACE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE REGION.
A HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES WILL
BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG AT KSLK/KMPV EACH
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS HAVE DEVELOPED
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THIS WILL
CREATE WAVES FROM 2 TO 4 FEET...GREATEST ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE LAKE AND ALONG WESTWARD FACING SHORES. WINDS WILL TAPER DOWN
AFTER 8 PM TONIGHT TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS...WITH WAVES SUBSIDING TO 1
TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...WGH/HANSON
MARINE...MUCCILLI






000
FXUS61 KBTV 222244
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
644 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PULLS SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION.
THEREAFTER...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE
BY NEXT MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 644 PM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS STILL HOLDING STRONG THIS EVENING
AND THUS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT EVERYTHING ON TRACK FOR THE SKY
COVER OVERNIGHT. WINDS TO EVENTUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST
LOWS OF LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S LOOKS READ GOOD. MOST OF THE COOLER
READINGS TONIGHT ARE IN AREAS WHERE A NOTICEABLE FROST AND OR
FREEZE HAS OCCURRED. AS A REMINDER...THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX ARRIVES
AT 10:29 PM EDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER H5 TROUGH THEN LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A LARGE BLOCKING SURFACE HIGH
BRIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST HERALDING THE START OF A LONG STRETCH
OF OUTSTANDING EARLY FALL WEATHER. THUS VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES FROM TUESDAY EVENING ONWARD AS BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY
AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD SLIGHTLY WIDER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL RANGES
GIVEN RATHER DRY SOIL SURFACE MOISTURE STATES. HIGHS 58 TO 65 TUE AND
60S TO AROUND 70 WED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
TUE NT AND 40S TO AROUND 50 WED NIGHT. PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET
IN FAVORED LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. MAIN
ACTION TAKEN ON THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS WAS TO WIDEN THE DIURNAL
SWINGS...BUMPING UP DAYTIME TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES AND LOWERING
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S SATURDAY & SUNDAY. GUIDANCE MAX
TEMP ESPECIALLY LOW NEXT MONDAY WHEN IT TRENDS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY
TOO MUCH. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LOWER
HEIGHTS AND COOL TEMPS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE HAD UPPER 60S WHILE
850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT LOWER 70S. LIKEWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEEDED TO
BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY RH WILL LET
TEMPS RADIATE COOLER. NO POPS AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...CEILINGS SLOWLY LIFTING AND ALL ARE VFR
EXCEPT MVFR CIG AT KSLK. GUSTY WEST WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...THEN WILL LOSE THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL
ABATE. STILL EXPECT A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 KT ALL TAF
SITES OVER NIGHT. WENT WITH BKN100 CIG DURING OVERNIGHT BUT
POSSIBLE THAT COULD SCATTER. WITH PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES THERE
IS A RISK FOR IFR FOG TO DEVELOP KSLK/KMPV...BUT FEEL THAT THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT NECESSARY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. 12-18Z MID CLOUD DECK RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG AT
KSLK/KMPV EACH MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS HAVE DEVELOPED
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THIS WILL
CREATE WAVES FROM 2 TO 4 FEET...GREATEST ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE LAKE AND ALONG WESTWARD FACING SHORES. WINDS WILL TAPER DOWN
AFTER 8 PM TONIGHT TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS...WITH WAVES SUBSIDING TO 1
TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...MUCCILLI







000
FXUS61 KBTV 222244
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
644 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PULLS SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION.
THEREAFTER...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE
BY NEXT MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 644 PM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS STILL HOLDING STRONG THIS EVENING
AND THUS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT EVERYTHING ON TRACK FOR THE SKY
COVER OVERNIGHT. WINDS TO EVENTUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST
LOWS OF LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S LOOKS READ GOOD. MOST OF THE COOLER
READINGS TONIGHT ARE IN AREAS WHERE A NOTICEABLE FROST AND OR
FREEZE HAS OCCURRED. AS A REMINDER...THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX ARRIVES
AT 10:29 PM EDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER H5 TROUGH THEN LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A LARGE BLOCKING SURFACE HIGH
BRIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST HERALDING THE START OF A LONG STRETCH
OF OUTSTANDING EARLY FALL WEATHER. THUS VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES FROM TUESDAY EVENING ONWARD AS BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY
AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD SLIGHTLY WIDER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL RANGES
GIVEN RATHER DRY SOIL SURFACE MOISTURE STATES. HIGHS 58 TO 65 TUE AND
60S TO AROUND 70 WED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
TUE NT AND 40S TO AROUND 50 WED NIGHT. PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET
IN FAVORED LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. MAIN
ACTION TAKEN ON THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS WAS TO WIDEN THE DIURNAL
SWINGS...BUMPING UP DAYTIME TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES AND LOWERING
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S SATURDAY & SUNDAY. GUIDANCE MAX
TEMP ESPECIALLY LOW NEXT MONDAY WHEN IT TRENDS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY
TOO MUCH. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LOWER
HEIGHTS AND COOL TEMPS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE HAD UPPER 60S WHILE
850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT LOWER 70S. LIKEWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEEDED TO
BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY RH WILL LET
TEMPS RADIATE COOLER. NO POPS AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...CEILINGS SLOWLY LIFTING AND ALL ARE VFR
EXCEPT MVFR CIG AT KSLK. GUSTY WEST WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...THEN WILL LOSE THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL
ABATE. STILL EXPECT A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 KT ALL TAF
SITES OVER NIGHT. WENT WITH BKN100 CIG DURING OVERNIGHT BUT
POSSIBLE THAT COULD SCATTER. WITH PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES THERE
IS A RISK FOR IFR FOG TO DEVELOP KSLK/KMPV...BUT FEEL THAT THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT NECESSARY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. 12-18Z MID CLOUD DECK RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG AT
KSLK/KMPV EACH MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS HAVE DEVELOPED
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THIS WILL
CREATE WAVES FROM 2 TO 4 FEET...GREATEST ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE LAKE AND ALONG WESTWARD FACING SHORES. WINDS WILL TAPER DOWN
AFTER 8 PM TONIGHT TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS...WITH WAVES SUBSIDING TO 1
TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...MUCCILLI







000
FXUS61 KBTV 222244
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
644 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PULLS SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION.
THEREAFTER...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE
BY NEXT MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 644 PM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS STILL HOLDING STRONG THIS EVENING
AND THUS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT EVERYTHING ON TRACK FOR THE SKY
COVER OVERNIGHT. WINDS TO EVENTUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST
LOWS OF LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S LOOKS READ GOOD. MOST OF THE COOLER
READINGS TONIGHT ARE IN AREAS WHERE A NOTICEABLE FROST AND OR
FREEZE HAS OCCURRED. AS A REMINDER...THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX ARRIVES
AT 10:29 PM EDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER H5 TROUGH THEN LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A LARGE BLOCKING SURFACE HIGH
BRIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST HERALDING THE START OF A LONG STRETCH
OF OUTSTANDING EARLY FALL WEATHER. THUS VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES FROM TUESDAY EVENING ONWARD AS BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY
AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD SLIGHTLY WIDER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL RANGES
GIVEN RATHER DRY SOIL SURFACE MOISTURE STATES. HIGHS 58 TO 65 TUE AND
60S TO AROUND 70 WED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
TUE NT AND 40S TO AROUND 50 WED NIGHT. PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET
IN FAVORED LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. MAIN
ACTION TAKEN ON THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS WAS TO WIDEN THE DIURNAL
SWINGS...BUMPING UP DAYTIME TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES AND LOWERING
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S SATURDAY & SUNDAY. GUIDANCE MAX
TEMP ESPECIALLY LOW NEXT MONDAY WHEN IT TRENDS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY
TOO MUCH. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LOWER
HEIGHTS AND COOL TEMPS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE HAD UPPER 60S WHILE
850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT LOWER 70S. LIKEWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEEDED TO
BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY RH WILL LET
TEMPS RADIATE COOLER. NO POPS AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...CEILINGS SLOWLY LIFTING AND ALL ARE VFR
EXCEPT MVFR CIG AT KSLK. GUSTY WEST WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...THEN WILL LOSE THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL
ABATE. STILL EXPECT A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 KT ALL TAF
SITES OVER NIGHT. WENT WITH BKN100 CIG DURING OVERNIGHT BUT
POSSIBLE THAT COULD SCATTER. WITH PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES THERE
IS A RISK FOR IFR FOG TO DEVELOP KSLK/KMPV...BUT FEEL THAT THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT NECESSARY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. 12-18Z MID CLOUD DECK RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG AT
KSLK/KMPV EACH MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS HAVE DEVELOPED
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THIS WILL
CREATE WAVES FROM 2 TO 4 FEET...GREATEST ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE LAKE AND ALONG WESTWARD FACING SHORES. WINDS WILL TAPER DOWN
AFTER 8 PM TONIGHT TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS...WITH WAVES SUBSIDING TO 1
TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...MUCCILLI







000
FXUS61 KBTV 222244
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
644 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PULLS SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION.
THEREAFTER...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE
BY NEXT MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 644 PM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS STILL HOLDING STRONG THIS EVENING
AND THUS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT EVERYTHING ON TRACK FOR THE SKY
COVER OVERNIGHT. WINDS TO EVENTUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST
LOWS OF LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S LOOKS READ GOOD. MOST OF THE COOLER
READINGS TONIGHT ARE IN AREAS WHERE A NOTICEABLE FROST AND OR
FREEZE HAS OCCURRED. AS A REMINDER...THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX ARRIVES
AT 10:29 PM EDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER H5 TROUGH THEN LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A LARGE BLOCKING SURFACE HIGH
BRIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST HERALDING THE START OF A LONG STRETCH
OF OUTSTANDING EARLY FALL WEATHER. THUS VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES FROM TUESDAY EVENING ONWARD AS BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY
AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD SLIGHTLY WIDER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL RANGES
GIVEN RATHER DRY SOIL SURFACE MOISTURE STATES. HIGHS 58 TO 65 TUE AND
60S TO AROUND 70 WED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
TUE NT AND 40S TO AROUND 50 WED NIGHT. PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET
IN FAVORED LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. MAIN
ACTION TAKEN ON THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS WAS TO WIDEN THE DIURNAL
SWINGS...BUMPING UP DAYTIME TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES AND LOWERING
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S SATURDAY & SUNDAY. GUIDANCE MAX
TEMP ESPECIALLY LOW NEXT MONDAY WHEN IT TRENDS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY
TOO MUCH. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LOWER
HEIGHTS AND COOL TEMPS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE HAD UPPER 60S WHILE
850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT LOWER 70S. LIKEWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEEDED TO
BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY RH WILL LET
TEMPS RADIATE COOLER. NO POPS AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...CEILINGS SLOWLY LIFTING AND ALL ARE VFR
EXCEPT MVFR CIG AT KSLK. GUSTY WEST WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...THEN WILL LOSE THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL
ABATE. STILL EXPECT A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 KT ALL TAF
SITES OVER NIGHT. WENT WITH BKN100 CIG DURING OVERNIGHT BUT
POSSIBLE THAT COULD SCATTER. WITH PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES THERE
IS A RISK FOR IFR FOG TO DEVELOP KSLK/KMPV...BUT FEEL THAT THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT NECESSARY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. 12-18Z MID CLOUD DECK RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG AT
KSLK/KMPV EACH MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS HAVE DEVELOPED
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THIS WILL
CREATE WAVES FROM 2 TO 4 FEET...GREATEST ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE LAKE AND ALONG WESTWARD FACING SHORES. WINDS WILL TAPER DOWN
AFTER 8 PM TONIGHT TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS...WITH WAVES SUBSIDING TO 1
TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...MUCCILLI







000
FXUS61 KALY 222008
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
408 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY DECREASE AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS
THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST.  AFTER A COOL START TOMORROW
MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL ALONG WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 408 PM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SITUATED
OVER THE NORTHEAST. OUR REGION HAS BEEN IN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM OFF THE REGION OVER
THE MIDWEST...AND SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND A
SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.

THIS TROUGH WILL START TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT...AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO FINALLY RELAX OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH WIND
GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING...THEY WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING AND
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE.

IN ADDITION...STRATOCU CLOUDS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL
DIMINISH AS WELL THANKS TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. SKIES WILL
BECOME CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR FOR TONIGHT. WITH THE DIMINISHING WIND
AND CLEARING SKY...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME PATCHY FROST IS MENTIONED FOR AREAS WHERE LOWS WILL GET INTO
THE MID 30S WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ONGOING. IF CLOUDS
WIND UP HANGING AROUND LONGER OR THE WIND KEEPS UP A LITTLE LONGER
THAN ANTICIPATED...THEN MIN TEMPS MAY NOT GET QUITE AS LOW AS
CURRENTLY FORECASTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM THE MIDWEST TOMORROW TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE DRY WEATHER...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY BE WARMER EACH DAY. VALLEY MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TOMORROW...NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY...AND LOW
70S FOR THURSDAY. HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S
THROUGH THE WEEK. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT AS WELL...AS COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE FORECASTED AS
WELL...WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR BOTH TUES/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. AT THIS
TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND OF AROUND 80 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY UP INTO THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
SOME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT KPSF. SKIES
WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AT THE TAF
SITES AS THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH GRADIENT TO KEEP THINGS MIXED
OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS FROM
THE W-NW AT 10-16 KTS GUSTY TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...WINDS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AROUND 3 KTS AFT 02Z AND THEN INCREASE 6-7 KTS
AND BE VARIABLE IN TERMS OF DIRECTION AFTER 15Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME
FOG/DEW/FROST FORMATION POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE GUSTY THIS
EVENING...THEY WILL DIMINISH TO CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 70 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.  RH VALUES WILL AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT WITH DEW AND FOG FORMATION AND CALM WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY
THROUGH THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 222008
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
408 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY DECREASE AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS
THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST.  AFTER A COOL START TOMORROW
MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL ALONG WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 408 PM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SITUATED
OVER THE NORTHEAST. OUR REGION HAS BEEN IN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM OFF THE REGION OVER
THE MIDWEST...AND SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND A
SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.

THIS TROUGH WILL START TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT...AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO FINALLY RELAX OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH WIND
GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING...THEY WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING AND
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE.

IN ADDITION...STRATOCU CLOUDS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL
DIMINISH AS WELL THANKS TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. SKIES WILL
BECOME CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR FOR TONIGHT. WITH THE DIMINISHING WIND
AND CLEARING SKY...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME PATCHY FROST IS MENTIONED FOR AREAS WHERE LOWS WILL GET INTO
THE MID 30S WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ONGOING. IF CLOUDS
WIND UP HANGING AROUND LONGER OR THE WIND KEEPS UP A LITTLE LONGER
THAN ANTICIPATED...THEN MIN TEMPS MAY NOT GET QUITE AS LOW AS
CURRENTLY FORECASTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FROM THE MIDWEST TOMORROW TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE DRY WEATHER...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY BE WARMER EACH DAY. VALLEY MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TOMORROW...NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY...AND LOW
70S FOR THURSDAY. HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S
THROUGH THE WEEK. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
NIGHT AS WELL...AS COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE FORECASTED AS
WELL...WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR BOTH TUES/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. AT THIS
TIME...HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND OF AROUND 80 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY UP INTO THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
SOME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT KPSF. SKIES
WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AT THE TAF
SITES AS THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH GRADIENT TO KEEP THINGS MIXED
OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS FROM
THE W-NW AT 10-16 KTS GUSTY TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...WINDS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AROUND 3 KTS AFT 02Z AND THEN INCREASE 6-7 KTS
AND BE VARIABLE IN TERMS OF DIRECTION AFTER 15Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME
FOG/DEW/FROST FORMATION POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE GUSTY THIS
EVENING...THEY WILL DIMINISH TO CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 70 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.  RH VALUES WILL AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT WITH DEW AND FOG FORMATION AND CALM WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY
THROUGH THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 221931
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
331 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PULLS SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION.
THEREAFTER...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE
BY NEXT MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT AS BASE OF UPPER H5 TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST FROM
THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. DRY PBL SHOULD ENSURE MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS FAVORED NRN MTN LOCALES WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE ON
DIMINISHING NORTHWESTERLY BLOCKED FLOW WILL ACT IN CONCERT. LOWS
CLOSE TO BIAS-CORRECT 12Z BLENDED DATA...SUGGESTING READINGS
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 40S FOR MOST SPOTS. COULD
SEE SOME ISOLATED FROST IN THE MOST SHELTERED HOLLOWS OF
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM CONTINUES
THIS FALL. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF FROST ISOLATED ENOUGH TO WARRANT
OMISSION OF ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR THESE AREAS. AS A
REMINDER...THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX ARRIVES AT 10:29 PM EDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER H5 TROUGH THEN LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A LARGE BLOCKING SFC HIGH
BRIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST HERALDING THE START OF A LONG STRETCH
OF OUTSTANDING EARLY FALL WEATHER. THUS VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES FROM TUESDAY EVENING ONWARD AS BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY
AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD SLIGHTLY WIDER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL RANGES
GIVEN RATHER DRY SOIL SFC MOISTURE STATES. HIGHS 58 TO 65 TUE AND
60S TO AROUND 70 WED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
TUE NT AND 40S TO AROUND 50 WED NIGHT. PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET
IN FAVORED LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. MAIN
ACTION TAKEN ON THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS WAS TO WIDEN THE DIURNAL
SWINGS...BUMPING UP DAYTIME TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES AND LOWERING
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S SATURDAY & SUNDAY. GUIDANCE MAX
TEMP ESPECIALLY LOW NEXT MONDAY WHEN IT TRENDS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY
TOO MUCH. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LOWER
HEIGHTS AND COOL TEMPS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE HAD UPPER 60S WHILE
850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT LOWER 70S. LIKEWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEEDED TO
BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY RH WILL LET
TEMPS RADIATE COOLER. NO POPS AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...CEILINGS SLOWLY LIFTING AND ALL ARE VFR
EXCEPT MVFR CIG AT KSLK. GUSTY WEST WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...THEN WILL LOSE THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL
ABATE. STILL EXPECT A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 KT ALL TAF
SITES OVER NIGHT. WENT WITH BKN100 CIG DURING OVERNIGHT BUT
POSSIBLE THAT COULD SCATTER. WITH PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES THERE
IS A RISK FOR IFR FOG TO DEVELOP KSLK/KMPV...BUT FEEL THAT THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT NECESSARY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. 12-18Z MID CLOUD DECK RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG AT
KSLK/KMPV EACH MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. GUSTY WEST WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS HAVE DEVELOPED
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THIS WILL
CREATE WAVES FROM 2 TO 4 FEET...GREATEST ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE LAKE AND ALONG WESTWARD FACING SHORES. WINDS WILL TAPER DOWN
AFTER 8 PM TONIGHT TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS...WITH WAVES SUBSIDING TO 1
TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...MUCCILLI







000
FXUS61 KBTV 221931
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
331 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PULLS SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION.
THEREAFTER...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE
BY NEXT MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT AS BASE OF UPPER H5 TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH THE
REGION...WHILE LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST FROM
THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. DRY PBL SHOULD ENSURE MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS FAVORED NRN MTN LOCALES WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE ON
DIMINISHING NORTHWESTERLY BLOCKED FLOW WILL ACT IN CONCERT. LOWS
CLOSE TO BIAS-CORRECT 12Z BLENDED DATA...SUGGESTING READINGS
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 40S FOR MOST SPOTS. COULD
SEE SOME ISOLATED FROST IN THE MOST SHELTERED HOLLOWS OF
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM CONTINUES
THIS FALL. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF FROST ISOLATED ENOUGH TO WARRANT
OMISSION OF ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR THESE AREAS. AS A
REMINDER...THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX ARRIVES AT 10:29 PM EDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER H5 TROUGH THEN LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A LARGE BLOCKING SFC HIGH
BRIDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST HERALDING THE START OF A LONG STRETCH
OF OUTSTANDING EARLY FALL WEATHER. THUS VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES FROM TUESDAY EVENING ONWARD AS BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY
AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD SLIGHTLY WIDER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL RANGES
GIVEN RATHER DRY SOIL SFC MOISTURE STATES. HIGHS 58 TO 65 TUE AND
60S TO AROUND 70 WED...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
TUE NT AND 40S TO AROUND 50 WED NIGHT. PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET
IN FAVORED LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. MAIN
ACTION TAKEN ON THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS WAS TO WIDEN THE DIURNAL
SWINGS...BUMPING UP DAYTIME TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES AND LOWERING
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 850 MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID/UPPER 70S SATURDAY & SUNDAY. GUIDANCE MAX
TEMP ESPECIALLY LOW NEXT MONDAY WHEN IT TRENDS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY
TOO MUCH. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LOWER
HEIGHTS AND COOL TEMPS SOMEWHAT...BUT GUIDANCE HAD UPPER 60S WHILE
850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT LOWER 70S. LIKEWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEEDED TO
BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY RH WILL LET
TEMPS RADIATE COOLER. NO POPS AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...CEILINGS SLOWLY LIFTING AND ALL ARE VFR
EXCEPT MVFR CIG AT KSLK. GUSTY WEST WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...THEN WILL LOSE THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL
ABATE. STILL EXPECT A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 KT ALL TAF
SITES OVER NIGHT. WENT WITH BKN100 CIG DURING OVERNIGHT BUT
POSSIBLE THAT COULD SCATTER. WITH PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES THERE
IS A RISK FOR IFR FOG TO DEVELOP KSLK/KMPV...BUT FEEL THAT THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT NECESSARY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. 12-18Z MID CLOUD DECK RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG AT
KSLK/KMPV EACH MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. GUSTY WEST WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS HAVE DEVELOPED
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THIS WILL
CREATE WAVES FROM 2 TO 4 FEET...GREATEST ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE LAKE AND ALONG WESTWARD FACING SHORES. WINDS WILL TAPER DOWN
AFTER 8 PM TONIGHT TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS...WITH WAVES SUBSIDING TO 1
TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...MUCCILLI






000
FXUS61 KBTV 221927
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
327 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION YESTERDAY
AND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
FOR THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY AS
COLD FRONT IN PROGRESS OF CLEARING OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS OF
900 AM. STILL COULD SEE A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IN LINGERING
POST FRONTAL MOISTURE AS COLD THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES
CONTINUE...BUT THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. VALLEY LOCALES
MAINLY DRY. WINDS WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AND BLUSTERY TODAY AS
READINGS HOLD STEADY IN THE 45 TO 55 RANGE. ONLY NOTABLE CHANGES
WERE TO ADJUST SKY TOWARD CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...WHICH RAP
850 RH PROGS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING WELL. ALSO TWEAKED POPS
DOWNWARD A TAD...ESP LARGER VALLEYS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
AN EXTREMELY QUIET AND PLEASANT STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS
WILL RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS
WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 223 AM EDT MONDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER...WITH
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN
CONUS. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(8-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL)...AND POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
SATURDAY. AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
SOME PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT EACH NIGHT. POPS NIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...CEILINGS SLOWLY LIFTING AND ALL ARE VFR
EXCEPT MVFR CIG AT KSLK. GUSTY WEST WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...THEN WILL LOSE THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL
ABATE. STILL EXPECT A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 KT ALL TAF
SITES OVER NIGHT. WENT WITH BKN100 CIG DURING OVERNIGHT BUT
POSSIBLE THAT COULD SCATTER. WITH PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES THERE
IS A RISK FOR IFR FOG TO DEVELOP KSLK/KMPV...BUT FEEL THAT THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT NECESSARY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. 12-18Z MID CLOUD DECK RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG AT
KSLK/KMPV EACH MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THIS EVENING. GUSTY WEST WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THIS WILL CREATE WAVES FROM
2 TO 4 FEET...GREATEST ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LAKE AND
ALONG WESTWARD FACING SHORES. WINDS WILL TAPER DOWN AFTER 8 PM OR SO
TONIGHT TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS...WITH WAVES SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...MUCCILLI







000
FXUS61 KBTV 221927
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
327 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION YESTERDAY
AND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
FOR THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY AS
COLD FRONT IN PROGRESS OF CLEARING OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS OF
900 AM. STILL COULD SEE A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IN LINGERING
POST FRONTAL MOISTURE AS COLD THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES
CONTINUE...BUT THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. VALLEY LOCALES
MAINLY DRY. WINDS WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AND BLUSTERY TODAY AS
READINGS HOLD STEADY IN THE 45 TO 55 RANGE. ONLY NOTABLE CHANGES
WERE TO ADJUST SKY TOWARD CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...WHICH RAP
850 RH PROGS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING WELL. ALSO TWEAKED POPS
DOWNWARD A TAD...ESP LARGER VALLEYS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
AN EXTREMELY QUIET AND PLEASANT STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS
WILL RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS
WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 223 AM EDT MONDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER...WITH
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN
CONUS. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(8-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL)...AND POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
SATURDAY. AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
SOME PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT EACH NIGHT. POPS NIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...CEILINGS SLOWLY LIFTING AND ALL ARE VFR
EXCEPT MVFR CIG AT KSLK. GUSTY WEST WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...THEN WILL LOSE THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL
ABATE. STILL EXPECT A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 KT ALL TAF
SITES OVER NIGHT. WENT WITH BKN100 CIG DURING OVERNIGHT BUT
POSSIBLE THAT COULD SCATTER. WITH PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES THERE
IS A RISK FOR IFR FOG TO DEVELOP KSLK/KMPV...BUT FEEL THAT THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT NECESSARY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. 12-18Z MID CLOUD DECK RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG AT
KSLK/KMPV EACH MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THIS EVENING. GUSTY WEST WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THIS WILL CREATE WAVES FROM
2 TO 4 FEET...GREATEST ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LAKE AND
ALONG WESTWARD FACING SHORES. WINDS WILL TAPER DOWN AFTER 8 PM OR SO
TONIGHT TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS...WITH WAVES SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...MUCCILLI








000
FXUS61 KALY 221747
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
147 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN
CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT...PLENTY OF CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
REGION. WITH STRONG W-NW FLOW...THE CLOUDS ARE DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS AND GREENS...ALLOWING
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY OF SE VT AND MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN CT.

WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLE FOR THE
WESTERN ADK/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THIS AFTN WHERE SOME LAKE
MOISTURE MAY AID IN PRODUCING PRECIP...BUT RADAR RETURNS ARE
SHOWING MAINLY JUST CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...TEMPS TODAY ARE
ALREADY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS...AND WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE AFTN BEFORE STARTING TO FALL BY LATE TODAY. TEMPS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH A FEW UPPER 60S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
SOME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT KPSF. SKIES
WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AT THE TAF
SITES AS THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH GRADIENT TO KEEP THINGS MIXED
OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS FROM
THE W-NW AT 10-16 KTS GUSTY TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...WINDS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AROUND 3 KTS AFT 02Z AND THEN INCREASE 6-7 KTS
AND BE VARIABLE IN TERMS OF DIRECTION AFTER 15Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 221747
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
147 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN
CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT...PLENTY OF CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
REGION. WITH STRONG W-NW FLOW...THE CLOUDS ARE DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS AND GREENS...ALLOWING
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY OF SE VT AND MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN CT.

WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLE FOR THE
WESTERN ADK/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THIS AFTN WHERE SOME LAKE
MOISTURE MAY AID IN PRODUCING PRECIP...BUT RADAR RETURNS ARE
SHOWING MAINLY JUST CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...TEMPS TODAY ARE
ALREADY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS...AND WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE AFTN BEFORE STARTING TO FALL BY LATE TODAY. TEMPS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH A FEW UPPER 60S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
SOME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT KPSF. SKIES
WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AT THE TAF
SITES AS THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH GRADIENT TO KEEP THINGS MIXED
OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS FROM
THE W-NW AT 10-16 KTS GUSTY TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...WINDS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AROUND 3 KTS AFT 02Z AND THEN INCREASE 6-7 KTS
AND BE VARIABLE IN TERMS OF DIRECTION AFTER 15Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 221746
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
146 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN
CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT...PLENTY OF CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
REGION. WITH STRONG W-NW FLOW...THE CLOUDS ARE DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS AND GREENS...ALLOWING
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY OF SE VT AND MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN CT.

WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLE FOR THE
WESTERN ADK/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THIS AFTN WHERE SOME LAKE
MOISTURE MAY AID IN PRODUCING PRECIP...BUT RADAR RETURNS ARE
SHOWING MAINLY JUST CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...TEMPS TODAY ARE
ALREADY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS...AND WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE AFTN BEFORE STARTING TO FALL BY LATE TODAY. TEMPS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH A FEW UPPER 60S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
COME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT KPSF. SKIES
WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AT THE
TAF SITES AS THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH GRADIENT TO KEEP THINGS
MIXED OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS FROM
THE W-NW AT 10-16 KTS GUSTY TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...WINDS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AROUND 3 KTS AFT 02Z AND THEN INCREASE 6-7 KTS
AND BE VARIABLE IN TERMS OF DIRECTION AFTER 15Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 221746
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
146 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN
CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT...PLENTY OF CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
REGION. WITH STRONG W-NW FLOW...THE CLOUDS ARE DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS AND GREENS...ALLOWING
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY OF SE VT AND MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN CT.

WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLE FOR THE
WESTERN ADK/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THIS AFTN WHERE SOME LAKE
MOISTURE MAY AID IN PRODUCING PRECIP...BUT RADAR RETURNS ARE
SHOWING MAINLY JUST CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...TEMPS TODAY ARE
ALREADY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS...AND WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE AFTN BEFORE STARTING TO FALL BY LATE TODAY. TEMPS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH A FEW UPPER 60S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
COME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT KPSF. SKIES
WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AT THE
TAF SITES AS THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH GRADIENT TO KEEP THINGS
MIXED OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS FROM
THE W-NW AT 10-16 KTS GUSTY TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...WINDS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AROUND 3 KTS AFT 02Z AND THEN INCREASE 6-7 KTS
AND BE VARIABLE IN TERMS OF DIRECTION AFTER 15Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 221746
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
146 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN
CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT...PLENTY OF CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
REGION. WITH STRONG W-NW FLOW...THE CLOUDS ARE DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS AND GREENS...ALLOWING
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY OF SE VT AND MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN CT.

WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLE FOR THE
WESTERN ADK/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THIS AFTN WHERE SOME LAKE
MOISTURE MAY AID IN PRODUCING PRECIP...BUT RADAR RETURNS ARE
SHOWING MAINLY JUST CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...TEMPS TODAY ARE
ALREADY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS...AND WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE AFTN BEFORE STARTING TO FALL BY LATE TODAY. TEMPS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH A FEW UPPER 60S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
COME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT KPSF. SKIES
WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AT THE
TAF SITES AS THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH GRADIENT TO KEEP THINGS
MIXED OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS FROM
THE W-NW AT 10-16 KTS GUSTY TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...WINDS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AROUND 3 KTS AFT 02Z AND THEN INCREASE 6-7 KTS
AND BE VARIABLE IN TERMS OF DIRECTION AFTER 15Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 221746
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
146 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN
CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT...PLENTY OF CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
REGION. WITH STRONG W-NW FLOW...THE CLOUDS ARE DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS AND GREENS...ALLOWING
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY OF SE VT AND MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN CT.

WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLE FOR THE
WESTERN ADK/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THIS AFTN WHERE SOME LAKE
MOISTURE MAY AID IN PRODUCING PRECIP...BUT RADAR RETURNS ARE
SHOWING MAINLY JUST CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...TEMPS TODAY ARE
ALREADY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS...AND WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE AFTN BEFORE STARTING TO FALL BY LATE TODAY. TEMPS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH A FEW UPPER 60S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
COME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT KPSF. SKIES
WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AT THE
TAF SITES AS THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH GRADIENT TO KEEP THINGS
MIXED OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS FROM
THE W-NW AT 10-16 KTS GUSTY TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...WINDS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AROUND 3 KTS AFT 02Z AND THEN INCREASE 6-7 KTS
AND BE VARIABLE IN TERMS OF DIRECTION AFTER 15Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 221737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN
CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT...PLENTY OF CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
REGION. WITH STRONG W-NW FLOW...THE CLOUDS ARE DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS AND GREENS...ALLOWING
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY OF SE VT AND MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN CT.

WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLE FOR THE
WESTERN ADK/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THIS AFTN WHERE SOME LAKE
MOISTURE MAY AID IN PRODUCING PRECIP...BUT RADAR RETURNS ARE
SHOWING MAINLY JUST CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...TEMPS TODAY ARE
ALREADY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS...AND WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE AFTN BEFORE STARTING TO FALL BY LATE TODAY. TEMPS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH A FEW UPPER 60S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
SPREADING INTO EASTERN NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR
RANGE JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
THIS MORNING AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH ANYWHERE.
SO... THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR
INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO ABOVE 3000 FEET LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...WITH SKC DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT BY MID
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD JUST BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 221737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN
CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT...PLENTY OF CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
REGION. WITH STRONG W-NW FLOW...THE CLOUDS ARE DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS AND GREENS...ALLOWING
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY OF SE VT AND MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN CT.

WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLE FOR THE
WESTERN ADK/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THIS AFTN WHERE SOME LAKE
MOISTURE MAY AID IN PRODUCING PRECIP...BUT RADAR RETURNS ARE
SHOWING MAINLY JUST CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...TEMPS TODAY ARE
ALREADY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS...AND WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE AFTN BEFORE STARTING TO FALL BY LATE TODAY. TEMPS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH A FEW UPPER 60S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
SPREADING INTO EASTERN NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR
RANGE JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
THIS MORNING AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH ANYWHERE.
SO... THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR
INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO ABOVE 3000 FEET LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...WITH SKC DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT BY MID
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD JUST BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 221736
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
136 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION YESTERDAY
AND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
FOR THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY AS
COLD FRONT IN PROGRESS OF CLEARING OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS OF
900 AM. STILL COULD SEE A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IN LINGERING
POST FRONTAL MOISTURE AS COLD THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES
CONTINUE...BUT THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. VALLEY LOCALES
MAINLY DRY. WINDS WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AND BLUSTERY TODAY AS
READINGS HOLD STEADY IN THE 45 TO 55 RANGE. ONLY NOTABLE CHANGES
WERE TO ADJUST SKY TOWARD CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...WHICH RAP
850 RH PROGS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING WELL. ALSO TWEAKED POPS
DOWNWARD A TAD...ESP LARGER VALLEYS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
AN EXTREMELY QUIET AND PLEASANT STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS
WILL RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS
WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 223 AM EDT MONDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER...WITH
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN
CONUS. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(8-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL)...AND POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
SATURDAY. AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
SOME PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT EACH NIGHT. POPS NIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...CEILINGS SLOWLY LIFTING AND ALL ARE VFR
EXCEPT MVFR CIG AT KSLK. GUSTY WEST WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...THEN WILL LOSE THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL
ABATE. STILL EXPECT A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 KT ALL TAF
SITES OVER NIGHT. WENT WITH BKN100 CIG DURING OVERNIGHT BUT
POSSIBLE THAT COULD SCATTER. WITH PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES THERE
IS A RISK FOR IFR FOG TO DEVELOP KSLK/KMPV...BUT FEEL THAT THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT NECESSARY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. 12-18Z MID CLOUD DECK RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG AT
KSLK/KMPV EACH MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. GUSTY WEST WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS HAVE DEVELOPED
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THIS WILL
CREATE WAVES FROM 2 TO 4 FEET...GREATEST ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE LAKE AND ALONG WESTWARD FACING SHORES. WINDS WILL TAPER DOWN
AFTER 8 PM TONIGHT TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS...WITH WAVES SUBSIDING TO 1
TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...MUCCILLI








000
FXUS61 KBTV 221736
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
136 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION YESTERDAY
AND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
FOR THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY AS
COLD FRONT IN PROGRESS OF CLEARING OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS OF
900 AM. STILL COULD SEE A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IN LINGERING
POST FRONTAL MOISTURE AS COLD THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES
CONTINUE...BUT THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. VALLEY LOCALES
MAINLY DRY. WINDS WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AND BLUSTERY TODAY AS
READINGS HOLD STEADY IN THE 45 TO 55 RANGE. ONLY NOTABLE CHANGES
WERE TO ADJUST SKY TOWARD CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...WHICH RAP
850 RH PROGS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING WELL. ALSO TWEAKED POPS
DOWNWARD A TAD...ESP LARGER VALLEYS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
AN EXTREMELY QUIET AND PLEASANT STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS
WILL RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS
WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 223 AM EDT MONDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER...WITH
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN
CONUS. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(8-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL)...AND POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
SATURDAY. AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
SOME PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT EACH NIGHT. POPS NIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...CEILINGS SLOWLY LIFTING AND ALL ARE VFR
EXCEPT MVFR CIG AT KSLK. GUSTY WEST WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...THEN WILL LOSE THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL
ABATE. STILL EXPECT A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 KT ALL TAF
SITES OVER NIGHT. WENT WITH BKN100 CIG DURING OVERNIGHT BUT
POSSIBLE THAT COULD SCATTER. WITH PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES THERE
IS A RISK FOR IFR FOG TO DEVELOP KSLK/KMPV...BUT FEEL THAT THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT NECESSARY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. 12-18Z MID CLOUD DECK RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG AT
KSLK/KMPV EACH MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. GUSTY WEST WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS HAVE DEVELOPED
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THIS WILL
CREATE WAVES FROM 2 TO 4 FEET...GREATEST ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE LAKE AND ALONG WESTWARD FACING SHORES. WINDS WILL TAPER DOWN
AFTER 8 PM TONIGHT TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS...WITH WAVES SUBSIDING TO 1
TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...MUCCILLI







000
FXUS61 KBTV 221622
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1222 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION YESTERDAY
AND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
FOR THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY AS
COLD FRONT IN PROGRESS OF CLEARING OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS OF
900 AM. STILL COULD SEE A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IN LINGERING
POST FRONTAL MOISTURE AS COLD THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES
CONTINUE...BUT THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. VALLEY LOCALES
MAINLY DRY. WINDS WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AND BLUSTERY TODAY AS
READINGS HOLD STEADY IN THE 45 TO 55 RANGE. ONLY NOTABLE CHANGES
WERE TO ADJUST SKY TOWARD CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...WHICH RAP
850 RH PROGS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING WELL. ALSO TWEAKED POPS
DOWNWARD A TAD...ESP LARGER VALLEYS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
AN EXTREMELY QUIET AND PLEASANT STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS
WILL RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS
WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 223 AM EDT MONDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER...WITH
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN
CONUS. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(8-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL)...AND POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
SATURDAY. AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
SOME PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT EACH NIGHT. POPS NIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING EASTWARD
ACROSS ERN VERMONT AT 1130Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE
BOUNDARY...VARIABLE CEILINGS WILL EXIST...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
ACROSS NRN NY...BUT PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS AT PBG/BTV WITH
DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS OFF THE ADIRONDACKS. ANTICIPATE THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCD MOST OF THE DAY. OVERALL...ANTICIPATE
CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AREAWIDE...EXCEPT LOCALLY AT SLK WHERE CEILINGS LIKELY REMAIN MVFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH UPSLOPE EFFECTS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES TODAY...BUT A BRIEF SPRINKLE
IS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV. WINDS GENERALLY WNW 10-14KTS WITH GUSTS
20-22 KTS WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CREATING SOME
TURBULENCE BELOW 3 KFT AGL.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG
POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. GUSTY WEST WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS HAVE DEVELOPED
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THIS WILL
CREATE WAVES FROM 2 TO 4 FEET...GREATEST ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE LAKE AND ALONG WESTWARD FACING SHORES. WINDS WILL TAPER DOWN
AFTER 8 PM TONIGHT TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS...WITH WAVES SUBSIDING TO 1
TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
MARINE...MUCCILLI









000
FXUS61 KALY 221426
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1026 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT...CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FA...ALTHOUGH SOME DOWNSLOPING IS OCCURRING IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. SOME SPRINKLES
ARE NOTED IN RADAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD
POOL...AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH PIVOT EAST TOWARD THE REGION...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE EXPANDING. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE
MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN VT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY...OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THIS
MORNING/S LEVELS. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE A SMALL RISE IN TEMPS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INDICATED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60
IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WARMING.
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOST MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
SPREADING INTO EASTERN NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR
RANGE JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
THIS MORNING AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH ANYWHERE.
SO... THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR
INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO ABOVE 3000 FEET LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...WITH SKC DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT BY MID
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD JUST BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 221426
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1026 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT...CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FA...ALTHOUGH SOME DOWNSLOPING IS OCCURRING IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. SOME SPRINKLES
ARE NOTED IN RADAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD
POOL...AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH PIVOT EAST TOWARD THE REGION...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE EXPANDING. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE
MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN VT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY...OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THIS
MORNING/S LEVELS. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE A SMALL RISE IN TEMPS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INDICATED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60
IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WARMING.
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOST MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
SPREADING INTO EASTERN NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR
RANGE JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
THIS MORNING AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH ANYWHERE.
SO... THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR
INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO ABOVE 3000 FEET LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...WITH SKC DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT BY MID
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD JUST BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 221426
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1026 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT...CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FA...ALTHOUGH SOME DOWNSLOPING IS OCCURRING IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. SOME SPRINKLES
ARE NOTED IN RADAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD
POOL...AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH PIVOT EAST TOWARD THE REGION...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE EXPANDING. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE
MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN VT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY...OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THIS
MORNING/S LEVELS. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE A SMALL RISE IN TEMPS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INDICATED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60
IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WARMING.
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOST MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
SPREADING INTO EASTERN NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR
RANGE JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
THIS MORNING AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH ANYWHERE.
SO... THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR
INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO ABOVE 3000 FEET LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...WITH SKC DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT BY MID
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD JUST BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 221426
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1026 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT...CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FA...ALTHOUGH SOME DOWNSLOPING IS OCCURRING IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. SOME SPRINKLES
ARE NOTED IN RADAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD
POOL...AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH PIVOT EAST TOWARD THE REGION...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE EXPANDING. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE
MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN VT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY...OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THIS
MORNING/S LEVELS. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE A SMALL RISE IN TEMPS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INDICATED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60
IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WARMING.
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOST MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
SPREADING INTO EASTERN NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR
RANGE JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
THIS MORNING AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH ANYWHERE.
SO... THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR
INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO ABOVE 3000 FEET LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...WITH SKC DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT BY MID
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD JUST BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 221345
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
945 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION YESTERDAY
AND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
FOR THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY AS
COLD FRONT IN PROGRESS OF CLEARING OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS OF
900 AM. STILL COULD SEE A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IN LINGERING
POST FRONTAL MOISTURE AS COLD THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES
CONTINUE...BUT THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. VALLEY LOCALES
MAINLY DRY. WINDS WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AND BLUSTERY TODAY AS
READINGS HOLD STEADY IN THE 45 TO 55 RANGE. ONLY NOTABLE CHANGES
WERE TO ADJUST SKY TOWARD CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...WHICH RAP
850 RH PROGS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING WELL. ALSO TWEAKED POPS
DOWNWARD A TAD...ESP LARGER VALLEYS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
AN EXTREMELY QUIET AND PLEASANT STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS
WILL RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS
WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 223 AM EDT MONDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER...WITH
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN
CONUS. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(8-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL)...AND POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
SATURDAY. AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
SOME PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT EACH NIGHT. POPS NIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING EASTWARD
ACROSS ERN VERMONT AT 1130Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE
BOUNDARY...VARIABLE CEILINGS WILL EXIST...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
ACROSS NRN NY...BUT PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS AT PBG/BTV WITH
DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS OFF THE ADIRONDACKS. ANTICIPATE THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCD MOST OF THE DAY. OVERALL...ANTICIPATE
CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AREAWIDE...EXCEPT LOCALLY AT SLK WHERE CEILINGS LIKELY REMAIN MVFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH UPSLOPE EFFECTS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES TODAY...BUT A BRIEF SPRINKLE
IS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV. WINDS GENERALLY WNW 10-14KTS WITH GUSTS
20-22 KTS WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CREATING SOME
TURBULENCE BELOW 3 KFT AGL.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG
POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS






000
FXUS61 KBTV 221345
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
945 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION YESTERDAY
AND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
FOR THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY AS
COLD FRONT IN PROGRESS OF CLEARING OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS OF
900 AM. STILL COULD SEE A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE IN LINGERING
POST FRONTAL MOISTURE AS COLD THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES
CONTINUE...BUT THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. VALLEY LOCALES
MAINLY DRY. WINDS WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AND BLUSTERY TODAY AS
READINGS HOLD STEADY IN THE 45 TO 55 RANGE. ONLY NOTABLE CHANGES
WERE TO ADJUST SKY TOWARD CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...WHICH RAP
850 RH PROGS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING WELL. ALSO TWEAKED POPS
DOWNWARD A TAD...ESP LARGER VALLEYS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
AN EXTREMELY QUIET AND PLEASANT STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS
WILL RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS
WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 223 AM EDT MONDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER...WITH
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN
CONUS. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(8-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL)...AND POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
SATURDAY. AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
SOME PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT EACH NIGHT. POPS NIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING EASTWARD
ACROSS ERN VERMONT AT 1130Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE
BOUNDARY...VARIABLE CEILINGS WILL EXIST...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
ACROSS NRN NY...BUT PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS AT PBG/BTV WITH
DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS OFF THE ADIRONDACKS. ANTICIPATE THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCD MOST OF THE DAY. OVERALL...ANTICIPATE
CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AREAWIDE...EXCEPT LOCALLY AT SLK WHERE CEILINGS LIKELY REMAIN MVFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH UPSLOPE EFFECTS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES TODAY...BUT A BRIEF SPRINKLE
IS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV. WINDS GENERALLY WNW 10-14KTS WITH GUSTS
20-22 KTS WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CREATING SOME
TURBULENCE BELOW 3 KFT AGL.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG
POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 221144
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
744 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION YESTERDAY
AND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
FOR THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 725 AM EDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS TO
MATCH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STILL DEALING WITH SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND LIKELY SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE BTV
CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP TAPERING OFF AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LINGERING POST-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER. EXPECT MORNING TEMPS RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE TO BE
RUNNING IN THE 40`S ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND 50`S
ACROSS VERMONT...AND WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE
DAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE BRISK...GUSTING TO 25 MPH AT TIMES
WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE FALL FOR SURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
AN EXTREMELY QUIET AND PLEASANT STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS
WILL RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS
WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 223 AM EDT MONDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER...WITH
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN
CONUS. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(8-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL)...AND POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
SATURDAY. AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
SOME PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT EACH NIGHT. POPS NIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING EASTWARD
ACROSS ERN VERMONT AT 1130Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE
BOUNDARY...VARIABLE CEILINGS WILL EXIST...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
ACROSS NRN NY...BUT PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS AT PBG/BTV WITH
DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS OFF THE ADIRONDACKS. ANTICIPATE THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCD MOST OF THE DAY. OVERALL...ANTICIPATE
CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AREAWIDE...EXCEPT LOCALLY AT SLK WHERE CEILINGS LIKELY REMAIN MVFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH UPSLOPE EFFECTS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES TODAY...BUT A BRIEF SPRINKLE
IS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV. WINDS GENERALLY WNW 10-14KTS WITH GUSTS
20-22 KTS WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CREATING SOME
TURBULENCE BELOW 3 KFT AGL.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG
POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS





000
FXUS61 KBTV 221144
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
744 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION YESTERDAY
AND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
FOR THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 725 AM EDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS TO
MATCH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STILL DEALING WITH SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND LIKELY SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE BTV
CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP TAPERING OFF AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LINGERING POST-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER. EXPECT MORNING TEMPS RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE TO BE
RUNNING IN THE 40`S ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND 50`S
ACROSS VERMONT...AND WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE
DAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE BRISK...GUSTING TO 25 MPH AT TIMES
WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE FALL FOR SURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
AN EXTREMELY QUIET AND PLEASANT STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS
WILL RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS
WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 223 AM EDT MONDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER...WITH
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN
CONUS. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(8-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL)...AND POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
SATURDAY. AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
SOME PATCHY NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT EACH NIGHT. POPS NIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING EASTWARD
ACROSS ERN VERMONT AT 1130Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE
BOUNDARY...VARIABLE CEILINGS WILL EXIST...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
ACROSS NRN NY...BUT PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS AT PBG/BTV WITH
DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS OFF THE ADIRONDACKS. ANTICIPATE THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCD MOST OF THE DAY. OVERALL...ANTICIPATE
CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AREAWIDE...EXCEPT LOCALLY AT SLK WHERE CEILINGS LIKELY REMAIN MVFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH UPSLOPE EFFECTS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES TODAY...BUT A BRIEF SPRINKLE
IS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV. WINDS GENERALLY WNW 10-14KTS WITH GUSTS
20-22 KTS WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CREATING SOME
TURBULENCE BELOW 3 KFT AGL.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG
POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS






000
FXUS61 KBTV 221127
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
727 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION YESTERDAY
AND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
FOR THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 725 AM EDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS TO
MATCH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STILL DEALING WITH SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND LIKELY SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE BTV
CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP TAPERING OFF AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LINGERING POST-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER. EXPECT MORNING TEMPS RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE TO BE
RUNNING IN THE 40`S ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND 50`S
ACROSS VERMONT...AND WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE
DAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE BRISK...GUSTING TO 25 MPH AT TIMES
WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE FALL FOR SURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
AN EXTREMELY QUIET AND PLEASANT STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS
WILL RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS
WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 223 AM EDT MONDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER...WITH
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN
CONUS. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(8-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL)...AND POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
SATURDAY. AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
SOME PATCHY NOCTURAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT EACH NIGHT. POPS NIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...IFR CEILINGS AT SLK/MSS ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. AS FRONT PROGRESSES EWD...ANTICIPATE
CEILINGS WILL FALL INTO THE 2-3 KFT RANGE (MVFR) AT THE REMAINING
TAF SITES BETWEEN 08-10Z...AND PERSIST MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY GOING BACK TO VFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SCATTERED ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BOUNDARY...AND CARRIED VCSH/-SHRA FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SW TO W-NW DURING THE
MID-MORNING...WITH WINDS 10-12 KTS AND GUSTS TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG
POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 221127
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
727 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION YESTERDAY
AND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
FOR THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 725 AM EDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS TO
MATCH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STILL DEALING WITH SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND LIKELY SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE BTV
CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP TAPERING OFF AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LINGERING POST-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER. EXPECT MORNING TEMPS RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE TO BE
RUNNING IN THE 40`S ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND 50`S
ACROSS VERMONT...AND WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE
DAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE BRISK...GUSTING TO 25 MPH AT TIMES
WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE FALL FOR SURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
AN EXTREMELY QUIET AND PLEASANT STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS
WILL RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS
WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 223 AM EDT MONDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER...WITH
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN
CONUS. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(8-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL)...AND POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
SATURDAY. AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
SOME PATCHY NOCTURAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT EACH NIGHT. POPS NIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...IFR CEILINGS AT SLK/MSS ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. AS FRONT PROGRESSES EWD...ANTICIPATE
CEILINGS WILL FALL INTO THE 2-3 KFT RANGE (MVFR) AT THE REMAINING
TAF SITES BETWEEN 08-10Z...AND PERSIST MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY GOING BACK TO VFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SCATTERED ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BOUNDARY...AND CARRIED VCSH/-SHRA FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SW TO W-NW DURING THE
MID-MORNING...WITH WINDS 10-12 KTS AND GUSTS TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG
POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS







000
FXUS61 KALY 221121
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
721 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NW CT AND PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. SOME SPRINKLES
ARE NOTED IN RADAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
ALSO NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD
POOL...AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH PIVOT EAST TOWARD THE REGION...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE EXPANDING. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE
MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN VT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

SO...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN MAY OCCUR RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE IN VALLEY AREAS...WE DO EXPECT A TREND TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS TO DEVELOP IN VALLEY
AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A CHANCE
THAT MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VALLEYS...WHILE
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT TRENDS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE THE CLOUDS REMAIN MORE PERSISTENT.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY...OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THIS
MORNING/S LEVELS. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE A SMALL RISE IN TEMPS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INDICATED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60
IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WARMING.
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOST MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
SPREADING INTO EASTERN NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR
RANGE JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
THIS MORNING AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH ANYWHERE.
SO... THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR
INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO ABOVE 3000 FEET LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...WITH SKC DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT BY MID
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD JUST BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 221121
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
721 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NW CT AND PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. SOME SPRINKLES
ARE NOTED IN RADAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
ALSO NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD
POOL...AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH PIVOT EAST TOWARD THE REGION...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE EXPANDING. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE
MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN VT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

SO...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN MAY OCCUR RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE IN VALLEY AREAS...WE DO EXPECT A TREND TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS TO DEVELOP IN VALLEY
AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A CHANCE
THAT MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VALLEYS...WHILE
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT TRENDS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE THE CLOUDS REMAIN MORE PERSISTENT.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY...OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THIS
MORNING/S LEVELS. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE A SMALL RISE IN TEMPS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INDICATED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60
IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WARMING.
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOST MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
SPREADING INTO EASTERN NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR
RANGE JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
THIS MORNING AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH ANYWHERE.
SO... THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR
INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO ABOVE 3000 FEET LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...WITH SKC DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT BY MID
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD JUST BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 221121
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
721 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NW CT AND PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. SOME SPRINKLES
ARE NOTED IN RADAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
ALSO NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD
POOL...AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH PIVOT EAST TOWARD THE REGION...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE EXPANDING. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE
MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN VT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

SO...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN MAY OCCUR RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE IN VALLEY AREAS...WE DO EXPECT A TREND TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS TO DEVELOP IN VALLEY
AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A CHANCE
THAT MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VALLEYS...WHILE
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT TRENDS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE THE CLOUDS REMAIN MORE PERSISTENT.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY...OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THIS
MORNING/S LEVELS. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE A SMALL RISE IN TEMPS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INDICATED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60
IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WARMING.
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOST MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
SPREADING INTO EASTERN NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR
RANGE JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
THIS MORNING AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH ANYWHERE.
SO... THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR
INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO ABOVE 3000 FEET LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...WITH SKC DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT BY MID
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD JUST BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 221121
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
721 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NW CT AND PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. SOME SPRINKLES
ARE NOTED IN RADAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
ALSO NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD
POOL...AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH PIVOT EAST TOWARD THE REGION...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE EXPANDING. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE
MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN VT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

SO...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN MAY OCCUR RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE IN VALLEY AREAS...WE DO EXPECT A TREND TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS TO DEVELOP IN VALLEY
AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A CHANCE
THAT MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VALLEYS...WHILE
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT TRENDS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE THE CLOUDS REMAIN MORE PERSISTENT.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY...OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THIS
MORNING/S LEVELS. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE A SMALL RISE IN TEMPS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INDICATED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60
IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WARMING.
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOST MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS
SPREADING INTO EASTERN NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR
RANGE JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
THIS MORNING AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH ANYWHERE.
SO... THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR
INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO ABOVE 3000 FEET LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...WITH SKC DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT BY MID
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD JUST BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 221045
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NW CT AND PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. SOME SPRINKLES
ARE NOTED IN RADAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
ALSO NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD
POOL...AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH PIVOT EAST TOWARD THE REGION...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE EXPANDING. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE
MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN VT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

SO...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN MAY OCCUR RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE IN VALLEY AREAS...WE DO EXPECT A TREND TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS TO DEVELOP IN VALLEY
AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A CHANCE
THAT MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VALLEYS...WHILE
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT TRENDS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE THE CLOUDS REMAIN MORE PERSISTENT.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY...OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THIS
MORNING/S LEVELS. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE A SMALL RISE IN TEMPS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INDICATED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60
IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WARMING.
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOST MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM KPOU TO KPSF WELL AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST QUICKLY...SO VCSH THERE THROUGH ABOUT 09Z-10Z.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITHIN THE BAND OF SHOWERS ARE VFR. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS STILL IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR RANGE
THERE. SO...AFTER 09Z-10Z...THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD
ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT
13Z-14Z.

COLD FRONT EXITS THROUGH THE MORNING AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE...WHILE CEILINGS RISE BACK INTO THE VFR RANGE. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE MUCH OF TOMORROW AND COVERAGE OF
CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE FROM VARIABLE BROKEN TO SCATTERED THROUGH THE
DAY.

WINDS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK AND INCREASE
TO AROUND 15KT BY MID MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING
SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 221045
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NW CT AND PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. SOME SPRINKLES
ARE NOTED IN RADAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
ALSO NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD
POOL...AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH PIVOT EAST TOWARD THE REGION...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE EXPANDING. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE
MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN VT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

SO...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN MAY OCCUR RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE IN VALLEY AREAS...WE DO EXPECT A TREND TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS TO DEVELOP IN VALLEY
AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A CHANCE
THAT MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VALLEYS...WHILE
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT TRENDS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE THE CLOUDS REMAIN MORE PERSISTENT.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY...OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THIS
MORNING/S LEVELS. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE A SMALL RISE IN TEMPS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INDICATED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60
IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WARMING.
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOST MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM KPOU TO KPSF WELL AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST QUICKLY...SO VCSH THERE THROUGH ABOUT 09Z-10Z.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITHIN THE BAND OF SHOWERS ARE VFR. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS STILL IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR RANGE
THERE. SO...AFTER 09Z-10Z...THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD
ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT
13Z-14Z.

COLD FRONT EXITS THROUGH THE MORNING AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE...WHILE CEILINGS RISE BACK INTO THE VFR RANGE. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE MUCH OF TOMORROW AND COVERAGE OF
CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE FROM VARIABLE BROKEN TO SCATTERED THROUGH THE
DAY.

WINDS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK AND INCREASE
TO AROUND 15KT BY MID MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING
SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 220849
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
449 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...SKIES HAVE BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR
MOST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AS WELL AS SW MA AND NW CT.
THIS CLEARING IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT...AND ALSO
A SURGE OF DOWNSLOPING W/SW LOW LEVEL WINDS. CLOUDS REMAIN
PREVALENT ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK
VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT/NW MA...AND ARE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
THE SE CATSKILLS.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD
POOL...AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH PIVOT EAST TOWARD THE REGION...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN VT BY OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

SO...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN MAY OCCUR RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE IN VALLEY AREAS...WE DO EXPECT A TREND TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS TO DEVELOP IN VALLEY
AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A CHANCE
THAT MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VALLEYS...WHILE
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT TRENDS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE THE CLOUDS REMAIN MORE PERSISTENT.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY...OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THIS
MORNING/S LEVELS. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE A SMALL RISE IN TEMPS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INDICATED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60
IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WARMING.
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOST MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM KPOU TO KPSF WELL AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST QUICKLY...SO VCSH THERE THROUGH ABOUT 09Z-10Z.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITHIN THE BAND OF SHOWERS ARE VFR. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS STILL IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR RANGE
THERE. SO...AFTER 09Z-10Z...THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD
ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT
13Z-14Z.

COLD FRONT EXITS THROUGH THE MORNING AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE...WHILE CEILINGS RISE BACK INTO THE VFR RANGE. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE MUCH OF TOMORROW AND COVERAGE OF
CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE FROM VARIABLE BROKEN TO SCATTERED THROUGH THE
DAY.

WINDS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK AND INCREASE
TO AROUND 15KT BY MID MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING
SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 220849
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
449 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...SKIES HAVE BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR
MOST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AS WELL AS SW MA AND NW CT.
THIS CLEARING IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT...AND ALSO
A SURGE OF DOWNSLOPING W/SW LOW LEVEL WINDS. CLOUDS REMAIN
PREVALENT ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK
VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT/NW MA...AND ARE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
THE SE CATSKILLS.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD
POOL...AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH PIVOT EAST TOWARD THE REGION...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON
VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN VT BY OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

SO...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN MAY OCCUR RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE IN VALLEY AREAS...WE DO EXPECT A TREND TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS TO DEVELOP IN VALLEY
AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A CHANCE
THAT MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VALLEYS...WHILE
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT TRENDS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE THE CLOUDS REMAIN MORE PERSISTENT.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY...OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THIS
MORNING/S LEVELS. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE A SMALL RISE IN TEMPS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INDICATED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60
IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WARMING.
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOST MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM KPOU TO KPSF WELL AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST QUICKLY...SO VCSH THERE THROUGH ABOUT 09Z-10Z.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITHIN THE BAND OF SHOWERS ARE VFR. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS STILL IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR RANGE
THERE. SO...AFTER 09Z-10Z...THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD
ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT
13Z-14Z.

COLD FRONT EXITS THROUGH THE MORNING AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE...WHILE CEILINGS RISE BACK INTO THE VFR RANGE. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE MUCH OF TOMORROW AND COVERAGE OF
CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE FROM VARIABLE BROKEN TO SCATTERED THROUGH THE
DAY.

WINDS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK AND INCREASE
TO AROUND 15KT BY MID MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING
SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KBTV 220730
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION YESTERDAY
AND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
FOR THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...STILL DEALING WITH SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND LIKELY SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE BTV
CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP TAPERING OFF AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LINGERING POST-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AND
WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER. EXPECT MORNING TEMPS RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE TO BE RUNNING IN
THE 40`S ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND 50`S ACROSS
VERMONT...AND WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE BRISK...GUSTING TO 25 MPH AT TIMES WHICH
WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE FALL FOR SURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
AN EXTREMELY QUIET AND PLEASANT STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS
WILL RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS
WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 223 AM EDT MONDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER...WITH
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN
CONUS. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(8-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL)...AND POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
SATURDAY. AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
SOME PATCHY NOCTURAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT EACH NIGHT. POPS NIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...IFR CEILINGS AT SLK/MSS ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. AS FRONT PROGRESSES EWD...ANTICIPATE
CEILINGS WILL FALL INTO THE 2-3 KFT RANGE (MVFR) AT THE REMAINING
TAF SITES BETWEEN 08-10Z...AND PERSIST MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY GOING BACK TO VFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SCATTERED ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BOUNDARY...AND CARRIED VCSH/-SHRA FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SW TO W-NW DURING THE
MID-MORNING...WITH WINDS 10-12 KTS AND GUSTS TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG
POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS









000
FXUS61 KBTV 220730
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION YESTERDAY
AND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
FOR THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...STILL DEALING WITH SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND LIKELY SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE BTV
CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP TAPERING OFF AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LINGERING POST-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AND
WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER. EXPECT MORNING TEMPS RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE TO BE RUNNING IN
THE 40`S ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND 50`S ACROSS
VERMONT...AND WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE BRISK...GUSTING TO 25 MPH AT TIMES WHICH
WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE FALL FOR SURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
AN EXTREMELY QUIET AND PLEASANT STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS
WILL RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS
WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 223 AM EDT MONDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER...WITH
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN
CONUS. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(8-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL)...AND POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
SATURDAY. AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
SOME PATCHY NOCTURAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT EACH NIGHT. POPS NIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...IFR CEILINGS AT SLK/MSS ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. AS FRONT PROGRESSES EWD...ANTICIPATE
CEILINGS WILL FALL INTO THE 2-3 KFT RANGE (MVFR) AT THE REMAINING
TAF SITES BETWEEN 08-10Z...AND PERSIST MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY GOING BACK TO VFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SCATTERED ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BOUNDARY...AND CARRIED VCSH/-SHRA FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SW TO W-NW DURING THE
MID-MORNING...WITH WINDS 10-12 KTS AND GUSTS TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG
POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS









000
FXUS61 KBTV 220730
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION YESTERDAY
AND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
FOR THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...STILL DEALING WITH SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND LIKELY SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE BTV
CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP TAPERING OFF AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LINGERING POST-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AND
WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER. EXPECT MORNING TEMPS RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE TO BE RUNNING IN
THE 40`S ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND 50`S ACROSS
VERMONT...AND WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE BRISK...GUSTING TO 25 MPH AT TIMES WHICH
WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE FALL FOR SURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
AN EXTREMELY QUIET AND PLEASANT STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS
WILL RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS
WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 223 AM EDT MONDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER...WITH
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN
CONUS. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(8-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL)...AND POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
SATURDAY. AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
SOME PATCHY NOCTURAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT EACH NIGHT. POPS NIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...IFR CEILINGS AT SLK/MSS ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. AS FRONT PROGRESSES EWD...ANTICIPATE
CEILINGS WILL FALL INTO THE 2-3 KFT RANGE (MVFR) AT THE REMAINING
TAF SITES BETWEEN 08-10Z...AND PERSIST MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY GOING BACK TO VFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SCATTERED ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BOUNDARY...AND CARRIED VCSH/-SHRA FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SW TO W-NW DURING THE
MID-MORNING...WITH WINDS 10-12 KTS AND GUSTS TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG
POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS









000
FXUS61 KBTV 220730
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION YESTERDAY
AND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
FOR THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...STILL DEALING WITH SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND LIKELY SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE BTV
CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP TAPERING OFF AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LINGERING POST-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AND
WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER. EXPECT MORNING TEMPS RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE TO BE RUNNING IN
THE 40`S ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND 50`S ACROSS
VERMONT...AND WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE BRISK...GUSTING TO 25 MPH AT TIMES WHICH
WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE FALL FOR SURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
AN EXTREMELY QUIET AND PLEASANT STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS
WILL RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS
WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 223 AM EDT MONDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER...WITH
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN
CONUS. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(8-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL)...AND POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
SATURDAY. AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
SOME PATCHY NOCTURAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT EACH NIGHT. POPS NIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...IFR CEILINGS AT SLK/MSS ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. AS FRONT PROGRESSES EWD...ANTICIPATE
CEILINGS WILL FALL INTO THE 2-3 KFT RANGE (MVFR) AT THE REMAINING
TAF SITES BETWEEN 08-10Z...AND PERSIST MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY GOING BACK TO VFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SCATTERED ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BOUNDARY...AND CARRIED VCSH/-SHRA FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SW TO W-NW DURING THE
MID-MORNING...WITH WINDS 10-12 KTS AND GUSTS TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG
POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS









000
FXUS61 KBTV 220645
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
245 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MONDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A DRY TREND FOR THE COMING WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT SUNDAY...FINALLY STARTING TO SEE SOME EASTWARD
PROGRESSION TO THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH...WHICH IS ENHANCING
PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF IT OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND FAR WESTERN
NEW YORK. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH IS HELPING TO
FINALLY MOVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THIS BAND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME MORE TERRAIN DRIVEN WITH THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND JUST NEEDED TO TWEAK
CURRENT TEMPERATURES BASED ON WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN
BECAUSE READINGS ARE A BIT COOLER IN THESE SPOTS. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT SUNDAY...WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL
POST-FRONTAL FLOW ON MONDAY MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND 850 MB UNDER
THE FRONTAL INVERSION. COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND MAY CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION DAYTIME
HIGHS NOTICEABLY COOLER MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT...ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS BACK INTO THE
30S. AFTERWARD...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MAKE ITS EFFECTS FELT AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATE AND CLOUDS DIMINISH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 223 AM EDT MONDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER...WITH
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN
CONUS. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(8-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL)...AND POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
SATURDAY. AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
SOME PATCHY NOCTURAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT EACH NIGHT. POPS NIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...IFR CEILINGS AT SLK/MSS ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. AS FRONT PROGRESSES EWD...ANTICIPATE
CEILINGS WILL FALL INTO THE 2-3 KFT RANGE (MVFR) AT THE REMAINING
TAF SITES BETWEEN 08-10Z...AND PERSIST MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY GOING BACK TO VFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SCATTERED ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BOUNDARY...AND CARRIED VCSH/-SHRA FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SW TO W-NW DURING THE
MID-MORNING...WITH WINDS 10-12 KTS AND GUSTS TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG
POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS






000
FXUS61 KBTV 220645
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
245 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MONDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A DRY TREND FOR THE COMING WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT SUNDAY...FINALLY STARTING TO SEE SOME EASTWARD
PROGRESSION TO THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH...WHICH IS ENHANCING
PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF IT OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND FAR WESTERN
NEW YORK. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH IS HELPING TO
FINALLY MOVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THIS BAND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME MORE TERRAIN DRIVEN WITH THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND JUST NEEDED TO TWEAK
CURRENT TEMPERATURES BASED ON WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN
BECAUSE READINGS ARE A BIT COOLER IN THESE SPOTS. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT SUNDAY...WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL
POST-FRONTAL FLOW ON MONDAY MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND 850 MB UNDER
THE FRONTAL INVERSION. COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND MAY CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION DAYTIME
HIGHS NOTICEABLY COOLER MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT...ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS BACK INTO THE
30S. AFTERWARD...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MAKE ITS EFFECTS FELT AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATE AND CLOUDS DIMINISH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 223 AM EDT MONDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER...WITH
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN
CONUS. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(8-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL)...AND POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
SATURDAY. AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
SOME PATCHY NOCTURAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT EACH NIGHT. POPS NIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...IFR CEILINGS AT SLK/MSS ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. AS FRONT PROGRESSES EWD...ANTICIPATE
CEILINGS WILL FALL INTO THE 2-3 KFT RANGE (MVFR) AT THE REMAINING
TAF SITES BETWEEN 08-10Z...AND PERSIST MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY GOING BACK TO VFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SCATTERED ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BOUNDARY...AND CARRIED VCSH/-SHRA FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SW TO W-NW DURING THE
MID-MORNING...WITH WINDS 10-12 KTS AND GUSTS TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG
POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS






000
FXUS61 KBTV 220645
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
245 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MONDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A DRY TREND FOR THE COMING WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT SUNDAY...FINALLY STARTING TO SEE SOME EASTWARD
PROGRESSION TO THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH...WHICH IS ENHANCING
PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF IT OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND FAR WESTERN
NEW YORK. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH IS HELPING TO
FINALLY MOVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THIS BAND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME MORE TERRAIN DRIVEN WITH THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND JUST NEEDED TO TWEAK
CURRENT TEMPERATURES BASED ON WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN
BECAUSE READINGS ARE A BIT COOLER IN THESE SPOTS. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT SUNDAY...WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL
POST-FRONTAL FLOW ON MONDAY MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND 850 MB UNDER
THE FRONTAL INVERSION. COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND MAY CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION DAYTIME
HIGHS NOTICEABLY COOLER MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT...ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS BACK INTO THE
30S. AFTERWARD...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MAKE ITS EFFECTS FELT AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATE AND CLOUDS DIMINISH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 223 AM EDT MONDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER...WITH
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN
CONUS. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(8-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL)...AND POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
SATURDAY. AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
SOME PATCHY NOCTURAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT EACH NIGHT. POPS NIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...IFR CEILINGS AT SLK/MSS ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. AS FRONT PROGRESSES EWD...ANTICIPATE
CEILINGS WILL FALL INTO THE 2-3 KFT RANGE (MVFR) AT THE REMAINING
TAF SITES BETWEEN 08-10Z...AND PERSIST MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY GOING BACK TO VFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SCATTERED ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BOUNDARY...AND CARRIED VCSH/-SHRA FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SW TO W-NW DURING THE
MID-MORNING...WITH WINDS 10-12 KTS AND GUSTS TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG
POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS






000
FXUS61 KBTV 220645
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
245 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MONDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A DRY TREND FOR THE COMING WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT SUNDAY...FINALLY STARTING TO SEE SOME EASTWARD
PROGRESSION TO THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH...WHICH IS ENHANCING
PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF IT OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND FAR WESTERN
NEW YORK. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH IS HELPING TO
FINALLY MOVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THIS BAND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME MORE TERRAIN DRIVEN WITH THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND JUST NEEDED TO TWEAK
CURRENT TEMPERATURES BASED ON WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN
BECAUSE READINGS ARE A BIT COOLER IN THESE SPOTS. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT SUNDAY...WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL
POST-FRONTAL FLOW ON MONDAY MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND 850 MB UNDER
THE FRONTAL INVERSION. COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND MAY CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION DAYTIME
HIGHS NOTICEABLY COOLER MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT...ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS BACK INTO THE
30S. AFTERWARD...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MAKE ITS EFFECTS FELT AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATE AND CLOUDS DIMINISH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 223 AM EDT MONDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER...WITH
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN
CONUS. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(8-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL)...AND POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
SATURDAY. AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
SOME PATCHY NOCTURAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT EACH NIGHT. POPS NIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...IFR CEILINGS AT SLK/MSS ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. AS FRONT PROGRESSES EWD...ANTICIPATE
CEILINGS WILL FALL INTO THE 2-3 KFT RANGE (MVFR) AT THE REMAINING
TAF SITES BETWEEN 08-10Z...AND PERSIST MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY GOING BACK TO VFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SCATTERED ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BOUNDARY...AND CARRIED VCSH/-SHRA FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SW TO W-NW DURING THE
MID-MORNING...WITH WINDS 10-12 KTS AND GUSTS TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG
POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS






000
FXUS61 KBTV 220547
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
147 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MONDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A DRY TREND FOR THE COMING WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT SUNDAY...FINALLY STARTING TO SEE SOME EASTWARD
PROGRESSION TO THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH...WHICH IS ENHANCING
PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF IT OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND FAR WESTERN
NEW YORK. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH IS HELPING TO
FINALLY MOVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THIS BAND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME MORE TERRAIN DRIVEN WITH THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND JUST NEEDED TO TWEAK
CURRENT TEMPERATURES BASED ON WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN
BECAUSE READINGS ARE A BIT COOLER IN THESE SPOTS. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT SUNDAY...WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL
POST-FRONTAL FLOW ON MONDAY MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND 850 MB UNDER
THE FRONTAL INVERSION. COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND MAY CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION DAYTIME
HIGHS NOTICEABLY COOLER MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT...ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS BACK INTO THE
30S. AFTERWARD...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MAKE ITS EFFECTS FELT AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATE AND CLOUDS DIMINISH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...LONG RANGE DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AND THEN MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD OUR REGION BY THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S BY THE WEEKEND AND THIS
WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...IFR CEILINGS AT SLK/MSS ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. AS FRONT PROGRESSES EWD...ANTICIPATE
CEILINGS WILL FALL INTO THE 2-3 KFT RANGE (MVFR) AT THE REMAINING
TAF SITES BETWEEN 08-10Z...AND PERSIST MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY GOING BACK TO VFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SCATTERED ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BOUNDARY...AND CARRIED VCSH/-SHRA FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SW TO W-NW DURING THE
MID-MORNING...WITH WINDS 10-12 KTS AND GUSTS TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG
POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...BANACOS







000
FXUS61 KALY 220533
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
133 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A FEW MORE SHOWERS. COOLER AND BRISK
CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS
DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
AROUND THE HUDSON RIVER AND POINTS EAST. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM W TO E OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL THEN TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 2 AND 4 AM...ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH. DEPENDING ON HOW LIGHT WINDS BECOME...SOME PATCHY FOG COULD
DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME.

MEANWHILE...THE MAIN COLD FRONT...AND A POTENT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD.
THESE FEATURES SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
TO REDEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BETWEEN 3
AND 5 AM...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLY REACHING
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...CATSKILLS...AND SOUTHERN
VT...AS WELL AS PERHAPS PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM
ALBANY NORTH...ESP TOWARD AND AFTER 5 AM.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TOWARD AND AFTER 5
AM...AS THE FRONT AND UPPER IMPULSE PASS THROUGH...AND WINDS
THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ALIGN FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST...ALLOWING FOR INCREASED DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER
AND SOME GUSTINESS TO DEVELOP.

TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED FOR HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSTABLE ENOUGH
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY TO FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40
PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. ONLY
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS FORECAST TO BE DRY. BY
LATER IN THE DAY...MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST IS
FORECAST TO BE DRY...WITH ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS TO THE WEST.
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S...WITH A NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING UP
TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF DAYTIME
SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT...AS OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN EVEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATING 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASING TO NEAR 590 DAM OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. SINCE WE WILL BE APPROACHING THE END OF
SEPTEMBER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT OPPRESSIVELY
HOT DUE TO LOWER SUN ANGLE AND LESS DAYLIGHT COMPARED TO DURING THE
SUMMER.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD INITIALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
START TO WARM AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. FULL OR NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE
EACH DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
REMAIN IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
40S INCREASING INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL QUITE A
PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE LAST FULL WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM KPOU TO KPSF WELL AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST QUICKLY...SO VCSH THERE THROUGH ABOUT 09Z-10Z.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITHIN THE BAND OF SHOWERS ARE VFR. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS STILL IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR RANGE
THERE. SO...AFTER 09Z-10Z...THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD
ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT
13Z-14Z.

COLD FRONT EXITS THROUGH THE MORNING AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE...WHILE CEILINGS RISE BACK INTO THE VFR RANGE. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE MUCH OF TOMORROW AND COVERAGE OF
CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE FROM VARIABLE BROKEN TO SCATTERED THROUGH THE
DAY.

WINDS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK AND INCREASE
TO AROUND 15KT BY MID MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING
SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN LOWER TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 70 PERCENT ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...THEN
WE DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS...
AMOUNTS WILL BE A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 220533
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
133 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A FEW MORE SHOWERS. COOLER AND BRISK
CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS
DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
AROUND THE HUDSON RIVER AND POINTS EAST. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM W TO E OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL THEN TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 2 AND 4 AM...ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH. DEPENDING ON HOW LIGHT WINDS BECOME...SOME PATCHY FOG COULD
DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME.

MEANWHILE...THE MAIN COLD FRONT...AND A POTENT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD.
THESE FEATURES SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
TO REDEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BETWEEN 3
AND 5 AM...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLY REACHING
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...CATSKILLS...AND SOUTHERN
VT...AS WELL AS PERHAPS PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM
ALBANY NORTH...ESP TOWARD AND AFTER 5 AM.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TOWARD AND AFTER 5
AM...AS THE FRONT AND UPPER IMPULSE PASS THROUGH...AND WINDS
THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ALIGN FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST...ALLOWING FOR INCREASED DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER
AND SOME GUSTINESS TO DEVELOP.

TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED FOR HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSTABLE ENOUGH
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY TO FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40
PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. ONLY
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS FORECAST TO BE DRY. BY
LATER IN THE DAY...MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST IS
FORECAST TO BE DRY...WITH ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS TO THE WEST.
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S...WITH A NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING UP
TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF DAYTIME
SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT...AS OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN EVEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATING 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASING TO NEAR 590 DAM OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. SINCE WE WILL BE APPROACHING THE END OF
SEPTEMBER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT OPPRESSIVELY
HOT DUE TO LOWER SUN ANGLE AND LESS DAYLIGHT COMPARED TO DURING THE
SUMMER.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD INITIALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
START TO WARM AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. FULL OR NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE
EACH DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
REMAIN IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
40S INCREASING INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL QUITE A
PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE LAST FULL WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM KPOU TO KPSF WELL AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST QUICKLY...SO VCSH THERE THROUGH ABOUT 09Z-10Z.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITHIN THE BAND OF SHOWERS ARE VFR. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS STILL IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR RANGE
THERE. SO...AFTER 09Z-10Z...THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD
ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT
13Z-14Z.

COLD FRONT EXITS THROUGH THE MORNING AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE...WHILE CEILINGS RISE BACK INTO THE VFR RANGE. CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE MUCH OF TOMORROW AND COVERAGE OF
CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE FROM VARIABLE BROKEN TO SCATTERED THROUGH THE
DAY.

WINDS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK AND INCREASE
TO AROUND 15KT BY MID MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING
SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN LOWER TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 70 PERCENT ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...THEN
WE DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS...
AMOUNTS WILL BE A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 220252
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1052 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A FEW MORE SHOWERS. COOLER AND BRISK
CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS
DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1052 PM...MOST OF THE SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE
SHIFTED EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION INTO THE TACONICS AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. THIS ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH THAT CAN BE SEEN ON SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSIS AHEAD
OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT FARTHER UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL NY. NOT MUCH
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONT...AS DAYTIME HEATING HAS
BEEN LOST.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN NY AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES IN. MOST OF THE
AREA WILL BE DRY THOUGH ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSTABLE ENOUGH
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY TO FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40
PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. ONLY
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS FORECAST TO BE DRY. BY
LATER IN THE DAY...MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST IS
FORECAST TO BE DRY...WITH ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS TO THE WEST.
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S...WITH A NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING UP
TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF DAYTIME
SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT...AS OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN EVEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATING 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASING TO NEAR 590 DAM OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. SINCE WE WILL BE APPROACHING THE END OF
SEPTEMBER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT OPPRESSIVELY
HOT DUE TO LOWER SUN ANGLE AND LESS DAYLIGHT COMPARED TO DURING THE
SUMMER.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD INITIALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
START TO WARM AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. FULL OR NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE
EACH DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
REMAIN IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
40S INCREASING INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL QUITE A
PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE LAST FULL WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS
EVENING...WILL STEADILY ADVANCE EASTWARD AND CROSS THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE
HUDSON VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z-03Z...BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS. WILL
MENTION TEMPOS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF BUT ONLY VCSH AT KPOU SINCE IT IS
LESS CERTAIN SHOWERS WILL HOLD TOGETHER FARTHER SOUTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND THE SHOWERS BY A FEW HOURS...BUT
SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA BY AROUND 06Z. THEN VARYING MVFR/VFR
CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETTING UP
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WITH BKN CIGS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY...BEFORE SKIES START TO CLEAR BY DARK.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT PRECEDING THE COLD
FRONT...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO
SPEEDS OF 12-16 KT ON MONDAY. GUSTS OVER 20 OR EVEN 25 KT WILL BE
COMMON FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN LOWER TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 70 PERCENT ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...THEN
WE DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS...
AMOUNTS WILL BE A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 220252
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1052 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A FEW MORE SHOWERS. COOLER AND BRISK
CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS
DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1052 PM...MOST OF THE SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE
SHIFTED EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION INTO THE TACONICS AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. THIS ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH THAT CAN BE SEEN ON SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSIS AHEAD
OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT FARTHER UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL NY. NOT MUCH
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONT...AS DAYTIME HEATING HAS
BEEN LOST.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN NY AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES IN. MOST OF THE
AREA WILL BE DRY THOUGH ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSTABLE ENOUGH
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY TO FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40
PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. ONLY
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS FORECAST TO BE DRY. BY
LATER IN THE DAY...MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST IS
FORECAST TO BE DRY...WITH ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS TO THE WEST.
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S...WITH A NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING UP
TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF DAYTIME
SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT...AS OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN EVEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATING 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASING TO NEAR 590 DAM OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. SINCE WE WILL BE APPROACHING THE END OF
SEPTEMBER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT OPPRESSIVELY
HOT DUE TO LOWER SUN ANGLE AND LESS DAYLIGHT COMPARED TO DURING THE
SUMMER.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD INITIALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
START TO WARM AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. FULL OR NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE
EACH DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
REMAIN IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
40S INCREASING INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL QUITE A
PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE LAST FULL WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS
EVENING...WILL STEADILY ADVANCE EASTWARD AND CROSS THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE
HUDSON VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z-03Z...BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS. WILL
MENTION TEMPOS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF BUT ONLY VCSH AT KPOU SINCE IT IS
LESS CERTAIN SHOWERS WILL HOLD TOGETHER FARTHER SOUTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND THE SHOWERS BY A FEW HOURS...BUT
SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA BY AROUND 06Z. THEN VARYING MVFR/VFR
CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETTING UP
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WITH BKN CIGS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY...BEFORE SKIES START TO CLEAR BY DARK.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT PRECEDING THE COLD
FRONT...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO
SPEEDS OF 12-16 KT ON MONDAY. GUSTS OVER 20 OR EVEN 25 KT WILL BE
COMMON FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN LOWER TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 70 PERCENT ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...THEN
WE DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS...
AMOUNTS WILL BE A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 220145
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
945 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MONDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A DRY TREND FOR THE COMING WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT SUNDAY...FINALLY STARTING TO SEE SOME EASTWARD
PROGRESSION TO THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH...WHICH IS ENHANCING
PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF IT OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND FAR WESTERN
NEW YORK. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH IS HELPING TO
FINALLY MOVE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THIS BAND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME MORE TERRAIN DRIVEN WITH THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND JUST NEEDED TO TWEAK
CURRENT TEMPERATURES BASED ON WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN
BECAUSE READINGS ARE A BIT COOLER IN THESE SPOTS. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT SUNDAY...WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL
POST-FRONTAL FLOW ON MONDAY MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND 850 MB UNDER
THE FRONTAL INVERSION. COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND MAY CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION DAYTIME
HIGHS NOTICEABLY COOLER MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT...ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS BACK INTO THE
30S. AFTERWARD...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MAKE ITS EFFECTS FELT AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATE AND CLOUDS DIMINISH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...LONG RANGE DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AND THEN MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD OUR REGION BY THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S BY THE WEEKEND AND THIS
WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF THE
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME AND
MOVING INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST VERMONT AS OF 00Z MONDAY. EXPECTING AREAS
OF MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HINT AT CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z MONDAY AND REMAINING MOSTLY MVFR THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECTING WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 20 KNOTS OR
GREATER TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY FROM 10Z-14Z AND
CONTINUING THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AND THE REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY
VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH
MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...WGH/MUCCILLI








000
FXUS61 KBTV 220021
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
821 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MONDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A DRY TREND FOR THE COMING WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 726 PM EDT SUNDAY...DISTINCT BAND OF SHOWERS HAS TAKEN SHAPE
FROM NORTHEAST NEW YORK SOUTHWEST TO THE BINGHAMTON NEW YORK AREA.
THIS BAND IS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE...BUT IS STILL
MOVE MORE NORTH THAN EAST. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...SO
MOST OF IT SHOULD REMAIN AS SHOWERS WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND GUSTS
TO ABOUT 30 MPH. HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO CREATE A SHARPER GRADIENT
IN PRECIPITATION WITH LITTLE CHANCE OUTSIDE OF THIS BAND AND
GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT WITHIN THE BAND. EVENTUALLY EVERYTHING
EVOLVES INTO A MORE TERRAIN DRIVEN PRECIPITATION PATTERN AS THE
UPPER TROUGH EXITS OUR AREA BY MORNING. REST OF FORECAST IN REAL
GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT SUNDAY...WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL
POST-FRONTAL FLOW ON MONDAY MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND 850 MB UNDER
THE FRONTAL INVERSION. COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND MAY CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION DAYTIME
HIGHS NOTICEABLY COOLER MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT...ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS BACK INTO THE
30S. AFTERWARD...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MAKE ITS EFFECTS FELT AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATE AND CLOUDS DIMINISH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...LONG RANGE DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AND THEN MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD OUR REGION BY THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S BY THE WEEKEND AND THIS
WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF THE
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME AND
MOVING INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST VERMONT AS OF 00Z MONDAY. EXPECTING AREAS
OF MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HINT AT CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z MONDAY AND REMAINING MOSTLY MVFR THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECTING WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 20 KNOTS OR
GREATER TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY FROM 10Z-14Z AND
CONTINUING THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AND THE REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY
VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH
MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 726 PM SUNDAY...WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF SUBSTANTIALLY AND
WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA...SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. THUS HAVE CANCELED THE LAKE
WIND ADVISORY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...WGH/MUCCILLI
MARINE...EVENSON







000
FXUS61 KBTV 220021
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
821 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MONDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A DRY TREND FOR THE COMING WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 726 PM EDT SUNDAY...DISTINCT BAND OF SHOWERS HAS TAKEN SHAPE
FROM NORTHEAST NEW YORK SOUTHWEST TO THE BINGHAMTON NEW YORK AREA.
THIS BAND IS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE...BUT IS STILL
MOVE MORE NORTH THAN EAST. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...SO
MOST OF IT SHOULD REMAIN AS SHOWERS WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND GUSTS
TO ABOUT 30 MPH. HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO CREATE A SHARPER GRADIENT
IN PRECIPITATION WITH LITTLE CHANCE OUTSIDE OF THIS BAND AND
GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT WITHIN THE BAND. EVENTUALLY EVERYTHING
EVOLVES INTO A MORE TERRAIN DRIVEN PRECIPITATION PATTERN AS THE
UPPER TROUGH EXITS OUR AREA BY MORNING. REST OF FORECAST IN REAL
GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT SUNDAY...WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL
POST-FRONTAL FLOW ON MONDAY MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND 850 MB UNDER
THE FRONTAL INVERSION. COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND MAY CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION DAYTIME
HIGHS NOTICEABLY COOLER MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT...ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS BACK INTO THE
30S. AFTERWARD...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MAKE ITS EFFECTS FELT AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATE AND CLOUDS DIMINISH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...LONG RANGE DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AND THEN MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD OUR REGION BY THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S BY THE WEEKEND AND THIS
WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF THE
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME AND
MOVING INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST VERMONT AS OF 00Z MONDAY. EXPECTING AREAS
OF MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HINT AT CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z MONDAY AND REMAINING MOSTLY MVFR THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECTING WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 20 KNOTS OR
GREATER TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY FROM 10Z-14Z AND
CONTINUING THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AND THE REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY
VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH
MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 726 PM SUNDAY...WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF SUBSTANTIALLY AND
WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA...SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. THUS HAVE CANCELED THE LAKE
WIND ADVISORY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...WGH/MUCCILLI
MARINE...EVENSON






000
FXUS61 KALY 212353
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
753 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING... BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA. COOLER AND
BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 750 PM...BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED WELL
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS CROSSING
CENTRAL NY AT THIS TIME. THE LEADING BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND APPROACHING THE UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY. WHILE A WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED...THERE STILL COULD
BE A BRIEF DOWNPOUR AND SOME GUSTY WIND. ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS
PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT IS FARTHER WEST IMPACTING THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH
DECREASING POPS SOUTH AND EAST DUE TO EXPECTED CONTINUING
WEAKENING AND DECREASING COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN LATE EVENING
AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES IN...HOWEVER MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSTABLE ENOUGH
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY TO FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40
PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. ONLY
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS FORECAST TO BE DRY. BY
LATER IN THE DAY...MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST IS
FORECAST TO BE DRY...WITH ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS TO THE WEST.
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S...WITH A NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING UP
TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF DAYTIME
SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT...AS OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN EVEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATING 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASING TO NEAR 590 DAM OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. SINCE WE WILL BE APPROACHING THE END OF
SEPTEMBER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT OPPRESSIVELY
HOT DUE TO LOWER SUN ANGLE AND LESS DAYLIGHT COMPARED TO DURING THE
SUMMER.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD INITIALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
START TO WARM AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. FULL OR NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE
EACH DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
REMAIN IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
40S INCREASING INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL QUITE A
PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE LAST FULL WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS
EVENING...WILL STEADILY ADVANCE EASTWARD AND CROSS THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE
HUDSON VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z-03Z...BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS. WILL
MENTION TEMPOS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF BUT ONLY VCSH AT KPOU SINCE IT IS
LESS CERTAIN SHOWERS WILL HOLD TOGETHER FARTHER SOUTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND THE SHOWERS BY A FEW HOURS...BUT
SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA BY AROUND 06Z. THEN VARYING MVFR/VFR
CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETTING UP
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WITH BKN CIGS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY...BEFORE SKIES START TO CLEAR BY DARK.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT PRECEDING THE COLD
FRONT...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO
SPEEDS OF 12-16 KT ON MONDAY. GUSTS OVER 20 OR EVEN 25 KT WILL BE
COMMON FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN LOWER TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 70 PERCENT ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...THEN
WE DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS...
AMOUNTS WILL BE A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 212353
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
753 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING... BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA. COOLER AND
BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 750 PM...BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED WELL
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS CROSSING
CENTRAL NY AT THIS TIME. THE LEADING BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND APPROACHING THE UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY. WHILE A WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED...THERE STILL COULD
BE A BRIEF DOWNPOUR AND SOME GUSTY WIND. ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS
PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT IS FARTHER WEST IMPACTING THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH
DECREASING POPS SOUTH AND EAST DUE TO EXPECTED CONTINUING
WEAKENING AND DECREASING COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN LATE EVENING
AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES IN...HOWEVER MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSTABLE ENOUGH
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY TO FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40
PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. ONLY
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS FORECAST TO BE DRY. BY
LATER IN THE DAY...MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST IS
FORECAST TO BE DRY...WITH ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS TO THE WEST.
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S...WITH A NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING UP
TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF DAYTIME
SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT...AS OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN EVEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATING 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASING TO NEAR 590 DAM OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. SINCE WE WILL BE APPROACHING THE END OF
SEPTEMBER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT OPPRESSIVELY
HOT DUE TO LOWER SUN ANGLE AND LESS DAYLIGHT COMPARED TO DURING THE
SUMMER.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD INITIALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
START TO WARM AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. FULL OR NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE
EACH DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
REMAIN IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
40S INCREASING INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL QUITE A
PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE LAST FULL WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS
EVENING...WILL STEADILY ADVANCE EASTWARD AND CROSS THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE
HUDSON VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z-03Z...BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS. WILL
MENTION TEMPOS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF BUT ONLY VCSH AT KPOU SINCE IT IS
LESS CERTAIN SHOWERS WILL HOLD TOGETHER FARTHER SOUTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND THE SHOWERS BY A FEW HOURS...BUT
SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA BY AROUND 06Z. THEN VARYING MVFR/VFR
CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETTING UP
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WITH BKN CIGS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY...BEFORE SKIES START TO CLEAR BY DARK.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT PRECEDING THE COLD
FRONT...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO
SPEEDS OF 12-16 KT ON MONDAY. GUSTS OVER 20 OR EVEN 25 KT WILL BE
COMMON FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN LOWER TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 70 PERCENT ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...THEN
WE DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS...
AMOUNTS WILL BE A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 212353
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
753 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING... BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA. COOLER AND
BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 750 PM...BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED WELL
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS CROSSING
CENTRAL NY AT THIS TIME. THE LEADING BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND APPROACHING THE UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY. WHILE A WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED...THERE STILL COULD
BE A BRIEF DOWNPOUR AND SOME GUSTY WIND. ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS
PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT IS FARTHER WEST IMPACTING THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH
DECREASING POPS SOUTH AND EAST DUE TO EXPECTED CONTINUING
WEAKENING AND DECREASING COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN LATE EVENING
AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES IN...HOWEVER MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSTABLE ENOUGH
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY TO FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40
PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. ONLY
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS FORECAST TO BE DRY. BY
LATER IN THE DAY...MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST IS
FORECAST TO BE DRY...WITH ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS TO THE WEST.
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S...WITH A NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING UP
TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF DAYTIME
SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT...AS OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN EVEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATING 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASING TO NEAR 590 DAM OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. SINCE WE WILL BE APPROACHING THE END OF
SEPTEMBER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT OPPRESSIVELY
HOT DUE TO LOWER SUN ANGLE AND LESS DAYLIGHT COMPARED TO DURING THE
SUMMER.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD INITIALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
START TO WARM AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. FULL OR NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE
EACH DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
REMAIN IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
40S INCREASING INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL QUITE A
PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE LAST FULL WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS
EVENING...WILL STEADILY ADVANCE EASTWARD AND CROSS THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE
HUDSON VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z-03Z...BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS. WILL
MENTION TEMPOS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF BUT ONLY VCSH AT KPOU SINCE IT IS
LESS CERTAIN SHOWERS WILL HOLD TOGETHER FARTHER SOUTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND THE SHOWERS BY A FEW HOURS...BUT
SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA BY AROUND 06Z. THEN VARYING MVFR/VFR
CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETTING UP
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WITH BKN CIGS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY...BEFORE SKIES START TO CLEAR BY DARK.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT PRECEDING THE COLD
FRONT...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO
SPEEDS OF 12-16 KT ON MONDAY. GUSTS OVER 20 OR EVEN 25 KT WILL BE
COMMON FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN LOWER TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 70 PERCENT ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...THEN
WE DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS...
AMOUNTS WILL BE A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 212353
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
753 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING... BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA. COOLER AND
BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 750 PM...BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED WELL
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS CROSSING
CENTRAL NY AT THIS TIME. THE LEADING BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND APPROACHING THE UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY. WHILE A WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED...THERE STILL COULD
BE A BRIEF DOWNPOUR AND SOME GUSTY WIND. ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS
PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT IS FARTHER WEST IMPACTING THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH
DECREASING POPS SOUTH AND EAST DUE TO EXPECTED CONTINUING
WEAKENING AND DECREASING COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN LATE EVENING
AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES IN...HOWEVER MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSTABLE ENOUGH
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY TO FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40
PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. ONLY
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS FORECAST TO BE DRY. BY
LATER IN THE DAY...MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST IS
FORECAST TO BE DRY...WITH ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS TO THE WEST.
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S...WITH A NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING UP
TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF DAYTIME
SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT...AS OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN EVEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATING 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASING TO NEAR 590 DAM OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. SINCE WE WILL BE APPROACHING THE END OF
SEPTEMBER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT OPPRESSIVELY
HOT DUE TO LOWER SUN ANGLE AND LESS DAYLIGHT COMPARED TO DURING THE
SUMMER.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD INITIALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
START TO WARM AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. FULL OR NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE
EACH DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
REMAIN IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
40S INCREASING INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL QUITE A
PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE LAST FULL WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS
EVENING...WILL STEADILY ADVANCE EASTWARD AND CROSS THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE
HUDSON VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z-03Z...BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS. WILL
MENTION TEMPOS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF BUT ONLY VCSH AT KPOU SINCE IT IS
LESS CERTAIN SHOWERS WILL HOLD TOGETHER FARTHER SOUTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND THE SHOWERS BY A FEW HOURS...BUT
SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA BY AROUND 06Z. THEN VARYING MVFR/VFR
CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETTING UP
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WITH BKN CIGS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY...BEFORE SKIES START TO CLEAR BY DARK.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT PRECEDING THE COLD
FRONT...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO
SPEEDS OF 12-16 KT ON MONDAY. GUSTS OVER 20 OR EVEN 25 KT WILL BE
COMMON FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN LOWER TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 70 PERCENT ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...THEN
WE DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS...
AMOUNTS WILL BE A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 212326
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
726 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MONDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A DRY TREND FOR THE COMING WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 726 PM EDT SUNDAY...DISTINCT BAND OF SHOWERS HAS TAKEN SHAPE
FROM NORTHEAST NEW YORK SOUTHWEST TO THE BINGHAMTON NEW YORK AREA.
THIS BAND IS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE...BUT IS STILL
MOVE MORE NORTH THAN EAST. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...SO
MOST OF IT SHOULD REMAIN AS SHOWERS WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND GUSTS
TO ABOUT 30 MPH. HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO CREATE A SHARPER GRADIENT
IN PRECIPITATION WITH LITTLE CHANCE OUTSIDE OF THIS BAND AND
GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT WITHIN THE BAND. EVENTUALLY EVERYTHING
EVOLVES INTO A MORE TERRAIN DRIVEN PRECIPITATION PATTERN AS THE
UPPER TROUGH EXITS OUR AREA BY MORNING. REST OF FORECAST IN REAL
GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT SUNDAY...WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL
POST-FRONTAL FLOW ON MONDAY MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND 850 MB UNDER
THE FRONTAL INVERSION. COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND MAY CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION DAYTIME
HIGHS NOTICEABLY COOLER MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT...ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS BACK INTO THE
30S. AFTERWARD...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MAKE ITS EFFECTS FELT AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATE AND CLOUDS DIMINISH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...LONG RANGE DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AND THEN MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD OUR REGION BY THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S BY THE WEEKEND AND THIS
WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND DOWNWARD
INTO MVFR TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY FOR MOST TAF SITES...WITH IFR
LIKELY AT SLK. AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. MAY ALSO
SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY 6SM OR GREATER...BUT MAY SEE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. AS COLD FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD WHERE CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR FOR A TIME AS
WELL. AFTER 04Z IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND 09Z IN VERMONT WILL THEN
SEE A MORE PRONOUNCED LOWERING TREND IN CEILINGS WITH MVFR
DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES. CEILINGS WILL BE LOWEST AT SLK WHERE
IFR IS LIKELY AFTER 06Z. NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z
MONDAY. MAY SEE SOME CONTINUED SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS
NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON DECREASE AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THIS
EVENING AND FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AND
GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY...WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FROM MVFR CEILINGS TO VFR EXPECTED.
00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY
VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH
MORNING TUE- FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 726 PM SUNDAY...WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF SUBSTANTIALLY AND
WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA...SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. THUS HAVE CANCELED THE LAKE
WIND ADVISORY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...MUCCILLI
MARINE...EVENSON







000
FXUS61 KBTV 212326
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
726 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MONDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A DRY TREND FOR THE COMING WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 726 PM EDT SUNDAY...DISTINCT BAND OF SHOWERS HAS TAKEN SHAPE
FROM NORTHEAST NEW YORK SOUTHWEST TO THE BINGHAMTON NEW YORK AREA.
THIS BAND IS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE...BUT IS STILL
MOVE MORE NORTH THAN EAST. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...SO
MOST OF IT SHOULD REMAIN AS SHOWERS WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND GUSTS
TO ABOUT 30 MPH. HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO CREATE A SHARPER GRADIENT
IN PRECIPITATION WITH LITTLE CHANCE OUTSIDE OF THIS BAND AND
GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT WITHIN THE BAND. EVENTUALLY EVERYTHING
EVOLVES INTO A MORE TERRAIN DRIVEN PRECIPITATION PATTERN AS THE
UPPER TROUGH EXITS OUR AREA BY MORNING. REST OF FORECAST IN REAL
GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT SUNDAY...WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL
POST-FRONTAL FLOW ON MONDAY MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND 850 MB UNDER
THE FRONTAL INVERSION. COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND MAY CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION DAYTIME
HIGHS NOTICEABLY COOLER MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT...ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS BACK INTO THE
30S. AFTERWARD...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MAKE ITS EFFECTS FELT AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATE AND CLOUDS DIMINISH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...LONG RANGE DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AND THEN MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD OUR REGION BY THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S BY THE WEEKEND AND THIS
WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND DOWNWARD
INTO MVFR TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY FOR MOST TAF SITES...WITH IFR
LIKELY AT SLK. AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. MAY ALSO
SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY 6SM OR GREATER...BUT MAY SEE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. AS COLD FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD WHERE CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR FOR A TIME AS
WELL. AFTER 04Z IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND 09Z IN VERMONT WILL THEN
SEE A MORE PRONOUNCED LOWERING TREND IN CEILINGS WITH MVFR
DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES. CEILINGS WILL BE LOWEST AT SLK WHERE
IFR IS LIKELY AFTER 06Z. NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z
MONDAY. MAY SEE SOME CONTINUED SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS
NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON DECREASE AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THIS
EVENING AND FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AND
GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY...WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FROM MVFR CEILINGS TO VFR EXPECTED.
00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY
VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH
MORNING TUE- FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 726 PM SUNDAY...WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF SUBSTANTIALLY AND
WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA...SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. THUS HAVE CANCELED THE LAKE
WIND ADVISORY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...MUCCILLI
MARINE...EVENSON







000
FXUS61 KBTV 212326
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
726 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MONDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A DRY TREND FOR THE COMING WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 726 PM EDT SUNDAY...DISTINCT BAND OF SHOWERS HAS TAKEN SHAPE
FROM NORTHEAST NEW YORK SOUTHWEST TO THE BINGHAMTON NEW YORK AREA.
THIS BAND IS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE...BUT IS STILL
MOVE MORE NORTH THAN EAST. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...SO
MOST OF IT SHOULD REMAIN AS SHOWERS WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND GUSTS
TO ABOUT 30 MPH. HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO CREATE A SHARPER GRADIENT
IN PRECIPITATION WITH LITTLE CHANCE OUTSIDE OF THIS BAND AND
GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT WITHIN THE BAND. EVENTUALLY EVERYTHING
EVOLVES INTO A MORE TERRAIN DRIVEN PRECIPITATION PATTERN AS THE
UPPER TROUGH EXITS OUR AREA BY MORNING. REST OF FORECAST IN REAL
GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT SUNDAY...WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL
POST-FRONTAL FLOW ON MONDAY MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND 850 MB UNDER
THE FRONTAL INVERSION. COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND MAY CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION DAYTIME
HIGHS NOTICEABLY COOLER MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT...ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS BACK INTO THE
30S. AFTERWARD...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MAKE ITS EFFECTS FELT AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATE AND CLOUDS DIMINISH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...LONG RANGE DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AND THEN MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD OUR REGION BY THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S BY THE WEEKEND AND THIS
WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND DOWNWARD
INTO MVFR TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY FOR MOST TAF SITES...WITH IFR
LIKELY AT SLK. AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. MAY ALSO
SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY 6SM OR GREATER...BUT MAY SEE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. AS COLD FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD WHERE CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR FOR A TIME AS
WELL. AFTER 04Z IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND 09Z IN VERMONT WILL THEN
SEE A MORE PRONOUNCED LOWERING TREND IN CEILINGS WITH MVFR
DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES. CEILINGS WILL BE LOWEST AT SLK WHERE
IFR IS LIKELY AFTER 06Z. NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z
MONDAY. MAY SEE SOME CONTINUED SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS
NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON DECREASE AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THIS
EVENING AND FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AND
GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY...WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FROM MVFR CEILINGS TO VFR EXPECTED.
00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY
VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH
MORNING TUE- FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 726 PM SUNDAY...WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF SUBSTANTIALLY AND
WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA...SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. THUS HAVE CANCELED THE LAKE
WIND ADVISORY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...MUCCILLI
MARINE...EVENSON







000
FXUS61 KBTV 212326
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
726 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MONDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A DRY TREND FOR THE COMING WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 726 PM EDT SUNDAY...DISTINCT BAND OF SHOWERS HAS TAKEN SHAPE
FROM NORTHEAST NEW YORK SOUTHWEST TO THE BINGHAMTON NEW YORK AREA.
THIS BAND IS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE...BUT IS STILL
MOVE MORE NORTH THAN EAST. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...SO
MOST OF IT SHOULD REMAIN AS SHOWERS WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND GUSTS
TO ABOUT 30 MPH. HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO CREATE A SHARPER GRADIENT
IN PRECIPITATION WITH LITTLE CHANCE OUTSIDE OF THIS BAND AND
GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT WITHIN THE BAND. EVENTUALLY EVERYTHING
EVOLVES INTO A MORE TERRAIN DRIVEN PRECIPITATION PATTERN AS THE
UPPER TROUGH EXITS OUR AREA BY MORNING. REST OF FORECAST IN REAL
GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT SUNDAY...WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL
POST-FRONTAL FLOW ON MONDAY MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND 850 MB UNDER
THE FRONTAL INVERSION. COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND MAY CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION DAYTIME
HIGHS NOTICEABLY COOLER MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT...ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS BACK INTO THE
30S. AFTERWARD...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MAKE ITS EFFECTS FELT AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATE AND CLOUDS DIMINISH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...LONG RANGE DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AND THEN MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD OUR REGION BY THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S BY THE WEEKEND AND THIS
WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND DOWNWARD
INTO MVFR TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY FOR MOST TAF SITES...WITH IFR
LIKELY AT SLK. AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. MAY ALSO
SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY 6SM OR GREATER...BUT MAY SEE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. AS COLD FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD WHERE CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR FOR A TIME AS
WELL. AFTER 04Z IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND 09Z IN VERMONT WILL THEN
SEE A MORE PRONOUNCED LOWERING TREND IN CEILINGS WITH MVFR
DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES. CEILINGS WILL BE LOWEST AT SLK WHERE
IFR IS LIKELY AFTER 06Z. NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z
MONDAY. MAY SEE SOME CONTINUED SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS
NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON DECREASE AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THIS
EVENING AND FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AND
GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY...WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FROM MVFR CEILINGS TO VFR EXPECTED.
00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY
VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH
MORNING TUE- FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 726 PM SUNDAY...WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF SUBSTANTIALLY AND
WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA...SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. THUS HAVE CANCELED THE LAKE
WIND ADVISORY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...MUCCILLI
MARINE...EVENSON







000
FXUS61 KALY 212107
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
507 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING... BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA. COOLER AND
BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 PM...A BROKEN TO SOLID LIVE OF SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WAS
ACROSS CENTRAL NY. IT WAS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD AND WILL NOT LIKELY
AFFECT THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER SUNSET...AND
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AS A RESULT...WOULD EXPECT THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY BE DECREASING AS IT MOVES THROUGH MOST OF TH
ALBANY FORECAST...SO THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST. WHILE
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST CHANCES WILL BE THE LOWEST WITH ONLY 30 TO 40
PERCENT POPS FORECAST FOR EARLY TONIGHT. LATER TONIGHT THE POPS ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE IN ALL AREAS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSTABLE ENOUGH
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY TO FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40
PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. ONLY
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS FORECAST TO BE DRY. BY
LATER IN THE DAY...MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST IS
FORECAST TO BE DRY...WITH ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS TO THE WEST.
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S...WITH A NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING UP
TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF DAYTIME
SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT...AS OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE
RIDGE LOOKS TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN EVEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATING 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASING TO NEAR 590 DAM OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. SINCE WE WILL BE APPROACHING THE END OF
SEPTEMBER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT OPPRESSIVELY
HOT DUE TO LOWER SUN ANGLE AND LESS DAYLIGHT COMPARED TO DURING THE
SUMMER.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD INITIALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
START TO WARM AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. FULL OR NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE
EACH DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
REMAIN IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
40S INCREASING INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL QUITE A
PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE LAST FULL WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...KPOU AND KPSF...ALONG WITH
SOME WEAK/LIGHT SHOWERS. CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING INTO THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
LOW. WHILE INBETWEEN CLOUDS COVER HAS BEEN RATHER MINIMAL AT KGFL
AND KALB.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER A BIT LONGER THIS AFTERNOON AT KPOU. CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE
INCREASE AND ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

THERE ARE A COUPLE LINES OF SHOWERS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO PENNSYLVANIA. THESES LINES
WILL MOVE EASTWARD...HOWEVER THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SO HAVE
ADDRESS THREAT WITH VCSH IN TAFS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GUSTY ESPECIALLY UP THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING THEN SHIFT
TO THE WEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT TONIGHT. ONCE DAYTIME
MIXING STARTS THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...
MON THROUGH THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN LOWER TO
BETWEEN 45 AND 70 PERCENT ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...THEN
WE DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS...
AMOUNTS WILL BE A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM













000
FXUS61 KBTV 212013
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
413 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THROUGH
THE EVENING. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MONDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A DRY TREND FOR THE
COMING WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT SUNDAY...A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN NEW YORK ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING 500 MB LOW DIGGING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES...EJECTING A VORT CENTER NORTHEAST OUT OF THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH. UPPER VORT SPEEDING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC...WHILE SURFACE LOW LAGS BEHIND OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NY AND PA. SURFACE
WINDS TO SHIFT WESTERLY OVERNIGHT...BRINGING PRECIP TO AN END FOR
THE MOST PART AS MOISTURE BECOME MORE LIMITED.

SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THROUGH THE EVENING AND
CROSS VERMONT OVERNIGHT IN PREFRONTAL TROUGH. LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT
WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES IN THE 300-500 J/KG RANGE. EVEN AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
DEWPOINTS LOWERED AS DRIER AIR MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. SOME
SHEAR AVAILABLE WITH 40KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AVAILABLE. RUMBLE OF
THUNDER POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 00Z WHEN LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING
LIMITS INSTABILITY. SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN
UPSLOPE FLOW...BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED BY MORNING.

TEMPS...TONIGHT BEGINS COOLING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH LOWS
IN 40S IN NY AND 50S CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT SUNDAY...WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL
POSTFRONTAL FLOW ON MONDAY MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND 850 MB UNDER
THE FRONTAL INVERSION. COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND MAY CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION DAYTIME
HIGHS NOTICEABLY COOLER MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT...ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS BACK INTO THE
30S. AFTERWARD...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MAKE ITS EFFECTS FELT AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATE AND CLOUDS DIMINISH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...LONG RANGE DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AND THEN MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD OUR REGION BY THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S BY THE WEEKEND AND THIS
WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND DOWNWARD
INTO MVFR TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY FOR MOST TAF SITES...WITH IFR
LIKELY AT SLK. AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. MAY ALSO
SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY 6SM OR GREATER...BUT MAY SEE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. AS COLD FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD WHERE CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR FOR A TIME AS
WELL. AFTER 04Z IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND 09Z IN VERMONT WILL THEN
SEE A MORE PRONOUNCED LOWERING TREND IN CEILINGS WITH MVFR
DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES. CEILINGS WILL BE LOWEST AT SLK WHERE
IFR IS LIKELY AFTER 06Z. NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z
MONDAY. MAY SEE SOME CONTINUED SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS
NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON DECREASE AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THIS
EVENING AND FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AND
GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY...WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FROM MVFR CEILINGS TO VFR EXPECTED.
00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY
VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH
MORNING TUE- FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 320 PM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN INTO THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE
REGION. WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEAKENING TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS
TONIGHT. WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO
2 FEET OVERNIGHT. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...MUCCILLI
MARINE...MUCCILLI







000
FXUS61 KBTV 212013
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
413 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THROUGH
THE EVENING. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MONDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A DRY TREND FOR THE
COMING WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT SUNDAY...A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN NEW YORK ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING 500 MB LOW DIGGING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES...EJECTING A VORT CENTER NORTHEAST OUT OF THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH. UPPER VORT SPEEDING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC...WHILE SURFACE LOW LAGS BEHIND OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NY AND PA. SURFACE
WINDS TO SHIFT WESTERLY OVERNIGHT...BRINGING PRECIP TO AN END FOR
THE MOST PART AS MOISTURE BECOME MORE LIMITED.

SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THROUGH THE EVENING AND
CROSS VERMONT OVERNIGHT IN PREFRONTAL TROUGH. LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT
WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES IN THE 300-500 J/KG RANGE. EVEN AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
DEWPOINTS LOWERED AS DRIER AIR MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. SOME
SHEAR AVAILABLE WITH 40KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AVAILABLE. RUMBLE OF
THUNDER POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 00Z WHEN LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING
LIMITS INSTABILITY. SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN
UPSLOPE FLOW...BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED BY MORNING.

TEMPS...TONIGHT BEGINS COOLING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH LOWS
IN 40S IN NY AND 50S CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT SUNDAY...WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL
POSTFRONTAL FLOW ON MONDAY MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND 850 MB UNDER
THE FRONTAL INVERSION. COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND MAY CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION DAYTIME
HIGHS NOTICEABLY COOLER MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT...ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS BACK INTO THE
30S. AFTERWARD...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MAKE ITS EFFECTS FELT AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATE AND CLOUDS DIMINISH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...LONG RANGE DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AND THEN MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD OUR REGION BY THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S BY THE WEEKEND AND THIS
WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND DOWNWARD
INTO MVFR TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY FOR MOST TAF SITES...WITH IFR
LIKELY AT SLK. AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. MAY ALSO
SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY 6SM OR GREATER...BUT MAY SEE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. AS COLD FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD WHERE CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR FOR A TIME AS
WELL. AFTER 04Z IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND 09Z IN VERMONT WILL THEN
SEE A MORE PRONOUNCED LOWERING TREND IN CEILINGS WITH MVFR
DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES. CEILINGS WILL BE LOWEST AT SLK WHERE
IFR IS LIKELY AFTER 06Z. NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z
MONDAY. MAY SEE SOME CONTINUED SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS
NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON DECREASE AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THIS
EVENING AND FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AND
GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY...WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FROM MVFR CEILINGS TO VFR EXPECTED.
00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY
VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH
MORNING TUE- FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 320 PM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN INTO THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE
REGION. WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEAKENING TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS
TONIGHT. WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO
2 FEET OVERNIGHT. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...MUCCILLI
MARINE...MUCCILLI








000
FXUS61 KBTV 211915
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
315 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGS A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK UNDER A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 128 PM EDT SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK. AREA ASSOCIATED WITH MESO VORT
HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND NOW FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS PREFRONTAL TROUGH TRAILING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. THE LINE WITH SLOWLY PROGRESS
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WAITING ON PUSH FROM
SURFACE AND UPPER LOW STILL TO WEST OVER EASTERN GREATLAKES. SURFACE
BASED CAPE UP TO 400-600 J/KG IN WARM SURFACE HEATING. NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE...BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON TO
CONTINUE THREAT FOR THUNDER.

AREAS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REACHING 80 DEGREES UNDER SUNSHINE.
THIS UPDATE ADJUSTS TEMPERATURES UPWARDS...OTHERWISE CONTINUED TO
LEAVE POPS/SKIES ALONE AS PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS IT WELL COVERED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SUNDAY...COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK COMES
MONDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE OUTGOING
LOW AND INCOMING HIGH. ANY MORNING UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
WINNING OVER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGHS WILL RUN QUITE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S...BUT WITH A MODEST NORTH
WIND THROUGHOUT THE DAY IT`LL FEEL LIKE IT`S IN THE 40S AT TIMES.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD IN THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH SHIFTS RIGHT OVERHEAD
TUESDAY...WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
SUPPORTING SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS FORMATION...BUT NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS REBOUND ON
TUESDAY PUSHING INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 242 AM EDT SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ONLY DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS THAT THE 00Z GFS INDICATES THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MAY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IDEA HAS LESS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. BASED ON
THE 00Z GFS...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SOME CLOUDINESS WITH THE
FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS OVERALL THAT PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. MAINTAINED
A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE COOLEST TUESDAY NIGHT (UPR 30S TO MID
40S)...AND THEN GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S THEREAFTER.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME NOCTURNAL FOG
IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN
04-12Z. ALL IN ALL...A DELIGHTFUL STRETCH OF WEATHER AS WE BEGIN
ASTRONOMICAL FALL THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND DOWNWARD
INTO MVFR TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY FOR MOST TAF SITES...WITH IFR
LIKELY AT SLK. AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. MAY ALSO
SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY 6SM OR GREATER...BUT MAY SEE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. AS COLD FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD WHERE CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR FOR A TIME AS
WELL. AFTER 04Z IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND 09Z IN VERMONT WILL THEN
SEE A MORE PRONOUNCED LOWERING TREND IN CEILINGS WITH MVFR
DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES. CEILINGS WILL BE LOWEST AT SLK WHERE
IFR IS LIKELY AFTER 06Z. NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z
MONDAY. MAY SEE SOME CONTINUED SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS
NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON DECREASE AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THIS
EVENING AND FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AND
GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY...WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FROM MVFR CEILINGS TO VFR EXPECTED.
00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY
VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH
MORNING TUE- FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 320 PM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN INTO THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE
REGION. WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEAKENING TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS
TONIGHT. WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO
2 FEET OVERNIGHT. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...MUCCILLI
MARINE...MUCCILLI







000
FXUS61 KBTV 211915
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
315 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGS A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK UNDER A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 128 PM EDT SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK. AREA ASSOCIATED WITH MESO VORT
HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND NOW FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS PREFRONTAL TROUGH TRAILING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. THE LINE WITH SLOWLY PROGRESS
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WAITING ON PUSH FROM
SURFACE AND UPPER LOW STILL TO WEST OVER EASTERN GREATLAKES. SURFACE
BASED CAPE UP TO 400-600 J/KG IN WARM SURFACE HEATING. NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE...BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON TO
CONTINUE THREAT FOR THUNDER.

AREAS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REACHING 80 DEGREES UNDER SUNSHINE.
THIS UPDATE ADJUSTS TEMPERATURES UPWARDS...OTHERWISE CONTINUED TO
LEAVE POPS/SKIES ALONE AS PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS IT WELL COVERED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SUNDAY...COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK COMES
MONDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE OUTGOING
LOW AND INCOMING HIGH. ANY MORNING UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
WINNING OVER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGHS WILL RUN QUITE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S...BUT WITH A MODEST NORTH
WIND THROUGHOUT THE DAY IT`LL FEEL LIKE IT`S IN THE 40S AT TIMES.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD IN THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH SHIFTS RIGHT OVERHEAD
TUESDAY...WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
SUPPORTING SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS FORMATION...BUT NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS REBOUND ON
TUESDAY PUSHING INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 242 AM EDT SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ONLY DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS THAT THE 00Z GFS INDICATES THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MAY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IDEA HAS LESS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. BASED ON
THE 00Z GFS...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SOME CLOUDINESS WITH THE
FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS OVERALL THAT PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. MAINTAINED
A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE COOLEST TUESDAY NIGHT (UPR 30S TO MID
40S)...AND THEN GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S THEREAFTER.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME NOCTURNAL FOG
IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN
04-12Z. ALL IN ALL...A DELIGHTFUL STRETCH OF WEATHER AS WE BEGIN
ASTRONOMICAL FALL THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND DOWNWARD
INTO MVFR TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY FOR MOST TAF SITES...WITH IFR
LIKELY AT SLK. AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. MAY ALSO
SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY 6SM OR GREATER...BUT MAY SEE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. AS COLD FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD WHERE CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR FOR A TIME AS
WELL. AFTER 04Z IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND 09Z IN VERMONT WILL THEN
SEE A MORE PRONOUNCED LOWERING TREND IN CEILINGS WITH MVFR
DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES. CEILINGS WILL BE LOWEST AT SLK WHERE
IFR IS LIKELY AFTER 06Z. NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z
MONDAY. MAY SEE SOME CONTINUED SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS
NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON DECREASE AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THIS
EVENING AND FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AND
GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY...WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FROM MVFR CEILINGS TO VFR EXPECTED.
00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY
VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH
MORNING TUE- FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 320 PM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN INTO THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE
REGION. WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEAKENING TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS
TONIGHT. WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO
2 FEET OVERNIGHT. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE EVENING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...MUCCILLI
MARINE...MUCCILLI








000
FXUS61 KALY 211826
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
225 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF SUMMER WILL END ON A MILD NOTE. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA. COOLER
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT
WEEK LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOCAL AREA IS LOCATED BETWEEN A COASTAL LOW LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A COLD FRONT/LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD PASSING SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND WHILE THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY EASTWARD TODAY AS THE LOW
MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE NY/CANADIAN BORDER. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.

THE COVERAGE OF EXPECTED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES
TO BE A CHALLENGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WHILE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST CHANCES WILL BE
THE LOWEST. THERE IS STILL THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE SEE TEXT ACROSS THE REGION WITH US IN THE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE WIND OUTLOOK. THEY DID PULL THE AREA OUT OF THE
HAIL OUTLOOK. GUIDANCE INDICATES MUCAPE IN THE MID HUNDREDS J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE GREATEST 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LESSER VALUES AS YOU HEAD TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS ONGONG
CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. SLOWED TIMING OF CONVECTION ACROSS FORECAST
AREA.

WARMING UP NICELY AS THE STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED AND BURN OFF
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEY DO LINGER ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST BUT ARE LIFTING. ITS ALSO FEELS HUMID/MUGGY AS DEW
POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...KPOU AND KPSF...ALONG WITH
SOME WEAK/LIGHT SHOWERS. CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING INTO THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
LOW. WHILE INBETWEEN CLOUDS COVER HAS BEEN RATHER MINIMAL AT KGFL
AND KALB.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER A BIT LONGER THIS AFTERNOON AT KPOU. CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE
INCREASE AND ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

THERE ARE A COUPLE LINES OF SHOWERS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO PENNSYLVANIA. THESES LINES
WILL MOVE EASTWARD...HOWEVER THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SO HAVE
ADDRESS THREAT WITH VCSH IN TAFS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GUSTY ESPECIALLY UP THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING THEN SHIFT
TO THE WEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT TONIGHT. ONCE DAYTIME
MIXING STARTS THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...
MON THROUGH THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM/IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM










000
FXUS61 KALY 211826
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
225 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF SUMMER WILL END ON A MILD NOTE. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA. COOLER
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT
WEEK LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOCAL AREA IS LOCATED BETWEEN A COASTAL LOW LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A COLD FRONT/LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD PASSING SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND WHILE THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY EASTWARD TODAY AS THE LOW
MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE NY/CANADIAN BORDER. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.

THE COVERAGE OF EXPECTED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES
TO BE A CHALLENGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WHILE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST CHANCES WILL BE
THE LOWEST. THERE IS STILL THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE SEE TEXT ACROSS THE REGION WITH US IN THE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE WIND OUTLOOK. THEY DID PULL THE AREA OUT OF THE
HAIL OUTLOOK. GUIDANCE INDICATES MUCAPE IN THE MID HUNDREDS J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE GREATEST 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LESSER VALUES AS YOU HEAD TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS ONGONG
CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. SLOWED TIMING OF CONVECTION ACROSS FORECAST
AREA.

WARMING UP NICELY AS THE STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED AND BURN OFF
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEY DO LINGER ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST BUT ARE LIFTING. ITS ALSO FEELS HUMID/MUGGY AS DEW
POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...KPOU AND KPSF...ALONG WITH
SOME WEAK/LIGHT SHOWERS. CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING INTO THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
LOW. WHILE INBETWEEN CLOUDS COVER HAS BEEN RATHER MINIMAL AT KGFL
AND KALB.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER A BIT LONGER THIS AFTERNOON AT KPOU. CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE
INCREASE AND ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

THERE ARE A COUPLE LINES OF SHOWERS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO PENNSYLVANIA. THESES LINES
WILL MOVE EASTWARD...HOWEVER THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SO HAVE
ADDRESS THREAT WITH VCSH IN TAFS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GUSTY ESPECIALLY UP THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING THEN SHIFT
TO THE WEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT TONIGHT. ONCE DAYTIME
MIXING STARTS THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...
MON THROUGH THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM/IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM










000
FXUS61 KALY 211826
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
225 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF SUMMER WILL END ON A MILD NOTE. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA. COOLER
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT
WEEK LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOCAL AREA IS LOCATED BETWEEN A COASTAL LOW LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A COLD FRONT/LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD PASSING SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND WHILE THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY EASTWARD TODAY AS THE LOW
MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE NY/CANADIAN BORDER. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.

THE COVERAGE OF EXPECTED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES
TO BE A CHALLENGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WHILE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST CHANCES WILL BE
THE LOWEST. THERE IS STILL THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE SEE TEXT ACROSS THE REGION WITH US IN THE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE WIND OUTLOOK. THEY DID PULL THE AREA OUT OF THE
HAIL OUTLOOK. GUIDANCE INDICATES MUCAPE IN THE MID HUNDREDS J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE GREATEST 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LESSER VALUES AS YOU HEAD TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS ONGONG
CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. SLOWED TIMING OF CONVECTION ACROSS FORECAST
AREA.

WARMING UP NICELY AS THE STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED AND BURN OFF
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEY DO LINGER ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST BUT ARE LIFTING. ITS ALSO FEELS HUMID/MUGGY AS DEW
POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...KPOU AND KPSF...ALONG WITH
SOME WEAK/LIGHT SHOWERS. CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING INTO THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
LOW. WHILE INBETWEEN CLOUDS COVER HAS BEEN RATHER MINIMAL AT KGFL
AND KALB.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER A BIT LONGER THIS AFTERNOON AT KPOU. CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE
INCREASE AND ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

THERE ARE A COUPLE LINES OF SHOWERS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO PENNSYLVANIA. THESES LINES
WILL MOVE EASTWARD...HOWEVER THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SO HAVE
ADDRESS THREAT WITH VCSH IN TAFS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GUSTY ESPECIALLY UP THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING THEN SHIFT
TO THE WEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT TONIGHT. ONCE DAYTIME
MIXING STARTS THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...
MON THROUGH THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM/IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM










000
FXUS61 KALY 211826
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
225 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF SUMMER WILL END ON A MILD NOTE. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA. COOLER
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT
WEEK LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOCAL AREA IS LOCATED BETWEEN A COASTAL LOW LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A COLD FRONT/LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD PASSING SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND WHILE THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY EASTWARD TODAY AS THE LOW
MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE NY/CANADIAN BORDER. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.

THE COVERAGE OF EXPECTED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES
TO BE A CHALLENGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WHILE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST CHANCES WILL BE
THE LOWEST. THERE IS STILL THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE SEE TEXT ACROSS THE REGION WITH US IN THE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE WIND OUTLOOK. THEY DID PULL THE AREA OUT OF THE
HAIL OUTLOOK. GUIDANCE INDICATES MUCAPE IN THE MID HUNDREDS J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE GREATEST 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LESSER VALUES AS YOU HEAD TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS ONGONG
CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. SLOWED TIMING OF CONVECTION ACROSS FORECAST
AREA.

WARMING UP NICELY AS THE STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED AND BURN OFF
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEY DO LINGER ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST BUT ARE LIFTING. ITS ALSO FEELS HUMID/MUGGY AS DEW
POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...KPOU AND KPSF...ALONG WITH
SOME WEAK/LIGHT SHOWERS. CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING INTO THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
LOW. WHILE INBETWEEN CLOUDS COVER HAS BEEN RATHER MINIMAL AT KGFL
AND KALB.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER A BIT LONGER THIS AFTERNOON AT KPOU. CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE
INCREASE AND ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

THERE ARE A COUPLE LINES OF SHOWERS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO PENNSYLVANIA. THESES LINES
WILL MOVE EASTWARD...HOWEVER THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SO HAVE
ADDRESS THREAT WITH VCSH IN TAFS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GUSTY ESPECIALLY UP THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING THEN SHIFT
TO THE WEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT TONIGHT. ONCE DAYTIME
MIXING STARTS THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...
MON THROUGH THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM/IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM










000
FXUS61 KBTV 211734
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
134 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGS A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK UNDER A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 128 PM EDT SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK. AREA ASSOCIATED WITH MESO VORT
HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND NOW FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS PREFRONTAL TROUGH TRAILING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. THE LINE WITH SLOWLY PROGRESS
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WAITING ON PUSH FROM
SURFACE AND UPPER LOW STILL TO WEST OVER EASTERN GREATLAKES. SURFACE
BASED CAPE UP TO 400-600 J/KG IN WARM SURFACE HEATING. NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE...BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON TO
CONTINUE THREAT FOR THUNDER.

AREAS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REACHING 80 DEGREES UNDER SUNSHINE.
THIS UPDATE ADJUSTS TEMPERATURES UPWARDS...OTHERWISE CONTINUED TO
LEAVE POPS/SKIES ALONE AS PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS IT WELL COVERED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SUNDAY...COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK COMES
MONDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE OUTGOING
LOW AND INCOMING HIGH. ANY MORNING UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
WINNING OVER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGHS WILL RUN QUITE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S...BUT WITH A MODEST NORTH
WIND THROUGHOUT THE DAY IT`LL FEEL LIKE IT`S IN THE 40S AT TIMES.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD IN THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH SHIFTS RIGHT OVERHEAD
TUESDAY...WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
SUPPORTING SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS FORMATION...BUT NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS REBOUND ON
TUESDAY PUSHING INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 242 AM EDT SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ONLY DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS THAT THE 00Z GFS INDICATES THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MAY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IDEA HAS LESS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. BASED ON
THE 00Z GFS...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SOME CLOUDINESS WITH THE
FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS OVERALL THAT PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. MAINTAINED
A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE COOLEST TUESDAY NIGHT (UPR 30S TO MID
40S)...AND THEN GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S THEREAFTER.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME NOCTURNAL FOG
IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN
04-12Z. ALL IN ALL...A DELIGHTFUL STRETCH OF WEATHER AS WE BEGIN
ASTRONOMICAL FALL THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND DOWNWARD
INTO MVFR TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY FOR MOST TAF SITES...WITH IFR
LIKELY AT SLK. AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. MAY ALSO
SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY 6SM OR GREATER...BUT MAY SEE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. AS COLD FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD WHERE CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR FOR A TIME AS
WELL. AFTER 04Z IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND 09Z IN VERMONT WILL THEN
SEE A MORE PRONOUNCED LOWERING TREND IN CEILINGS WITH MVFR
DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES. CEILINGS WILL BE LOWEST AT SLK WHERE
IFR IS LIKELY AFTER 06Z. NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z
MONDAY. MAY SEE SOME CONTINUED SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS
NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON DECREASE AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THIS
EVENING AND FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AND
GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY...WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FROM MVFR CEILINGS TO VFR EXPECTED.
00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY
VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH
MORNING TUE- FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. 20 TO 30 KNOTS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...MUCCILLI
MARINE...LAHIFF








000
FXUS61 KBTV 211734
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
134 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGS A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR AND DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK UNDER A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 128 PM EDT SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK. AREA ASSOCIATED WITH MESO VORT
HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND NOW FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS PREFRONTAL TROUGH TRAILING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. THE LINE WITH SLOWLY PROGRESS
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WAITING ON PUSH FROM
SURFACE AND UPPER LOW STILL TO WEST OVER EASTERN GREATLAKES. SURFACE
BASED CAPE UP TO 400-600 J/KG IN WARM SURFACE HEATING. NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE...BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON TO
CONTINUE THREAT FOR THUNDER.

AREAS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REACHING 80 DEGREES UNDER SUNSHINE.
THIS UPDATE ADJUSTS TEMPERATURES UPWARDS...OTHERWISE CONTINUED TO
LEAVE POPS/SKIES ALONE AS PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS IT WELL COVERED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SUNDAY...COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK COMES
MONDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE OUTGOING
LOW AND INCOMING HIGH. ANY MORNING UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
WINNING OVER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGHS WILL RUN QUITE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S...BUT WITH A MODEST NORTH
WIND THROUGHOUT THE DAY IT`LL FEEL LIKE IT`S IN THE 40S AT TIMES.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD IN THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH SHIFTS RIGHT OVERHEAD
TUESDAY...WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
SUPPORTING SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS FORMATION...BUT NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS REBOUND ON
TUESDAY PUSHING INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 242 AM EDT SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ONLY DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS THAT THE 00Z GFS INDICATES THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MAY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IDEA HAS LESS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. BASED ON
THE 00Z GFS...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SOME CLOUDINESS WITH THE
FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS OVERALL THAT PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. MAINTAINED
A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE COOLEST TUESDAY NIGHT (UPR 30S TO MID
40S)...AND THEN GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S THEREAFTER.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME NOCTURNAL FOG
IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN
04-12Z. ALL IN ALL...A DELIGHTFUL STRETCH OF WEATHER AS WE BEGIN
ASTRONOMICAL FALL THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND DOWNWARD
INTO MVFR TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY FOR MOST TAF SITES...WITH IFR
LIKELY AT SLK. AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. MAY ALSO
SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY 6SM OR GREATER...BUT MAY SEE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. AS COLD FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD WHERE CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR FOR A TIME AS
WELL. AFTER 04Z IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND 09Z IN VERMONT WILL THEN
SEE A MORE PRONOUNCED LOWERING TREND IN CEILINGS WITH MVFR
DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES. CEILINGS WILL BE LOWEST AT SLK WHERE
IFR IS LIKELY AFTER 06Z. NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z
MONDAY. MAY SEE SOME CONTINUED SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS
NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON DECREASE AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THIS
EVENING AND FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AND
GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY...WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FROM MVFR CEILINGS TO VFR EXPECTED.
00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY
VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH
MORNING TUE- FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. 20 TO 30 KNOTS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...MUCCILLI
MARINE...LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 211719
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
119 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGS A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK UNDER A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1023 AM EDT SUNDAY...CLOUD/POP/WEATHER FORECAST IN REALLY
GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEED THERE ON THIS UPDATE. ONLY BLENDED
TEMPERATURES INTO OBSERVED AND POPULATED THIS AFTERNOON AND MAX
TEMPS WITH LAV. THIS RAISED AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE CLEAR AREAS
INTO THE MID 70S...MAINLY CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
VERMONT. NEW YORK SIDE UNDER THE CLOUDS AND NEARER THE RAIN SHOULD
SEE TEMPS LEVEL OFF. IN FACT MASSENA HIT 70 EARLIER AND HAS SINCED
DROPPED TO 68 AT 14Z WITH LIGHT RAIN. RADAR LOOP SHOWING SWATH OF
RAIN MOVING UP ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL
MESO-VORT CENTER. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HRR MODEL
REFLECTIVITY THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL PROGRESS ON NORTHEAST BUT STAY
MAINLY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST RAIN AREA WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST. PRESENT POP FORECAST HAS
THIS COVERED WELL WITH LIKELY POPS IN NY THROUGH 18Z THEN
SPREADING IN TO VERMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK FOR TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THIS EVENING. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARE STILL FAR WEST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...SO ONLY REAL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING
WAS TO DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BY A FEW HOURS. SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AS TO HOW MUCH RAINFALL WE SEE AS LATEST RAP/HRRR PROGS
SHOW MOISTURE THINNING AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION...BUT NAM/GFS
STILL SHOW A FAIRLY SOLID LINE MOVING THROUGH. CONSENSUS IS THAT
WE`LL SEE A 3-HOUR WINDOW OF SHOWERS AT ANY ONE LOCATION...WITH
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS A QUARTER TO HALF INCH BY MIDNIGHT. FRONT
CLEARS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TURNING NORTHWESTERLY POST FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS COMBINED
WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT FEEL THIS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS VERY DRY AIR FROM 500-700MB ADVECTS INTO THE REGION BY
12Z MONDAY.

FOR TEMPS...WITH EARLY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
HIGHS WILL BE THE COOLEST ACROSS THE REGION AND RUN GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. MEANWHILE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD WHERE WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUN THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...HIGHS WILL BUMP UP INTO THE MID TO MAYBE UPPER 70S.
LIKEWISE FOR TONIGHT...LOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE
COLDEST IN THE 40S...WHILE ACROSS VT 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SUNDAY...COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK COMES
MONDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE OUTGOING
LOW AND INCOMING HIGH. ANY MORNING UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
WINNING OVER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGHS WILL RUN QUITE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S...BUT WITH A MODEST NORTH
WIND THROUGHOUT THE DAY IT`LL FEEL LIKE IT`S IN THE 40S AT TIMES.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD IN THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH SHIFTS RIGHT OVERHEAD
TUESDAY...WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
SUPPORTING SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS FORMATION...BUT NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS REBOUND ON
TUESDAY PUSHING INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 242 AM EDT SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ONLY DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS THAT THE 00Z GFS INDICATES THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MAY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IDEA HAS LESS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. BASED ON
THE 00Z GFS...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SOME CLOUDINESS WITH THE
FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS OVERALL THAT PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. MAINTAINED
A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE COOLEST TUESDAY NIGHT (UPR 30S TO MID
40S)...AND THEN GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S THEREAFTER.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME NOCTURNAL FOG
IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN
04-12Z. ALL IN ALL...A DELIGHTFUL STRETCH OF WEATHER AS WE BEGIN
ASTRONOMICAL FALL THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND DOWNWARD
INTO MVFR TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY FOR MOST TAF SITES...WITH IFR
LIKELY AT SLK. AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. MAY ALSO
SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY 6SM OR GREATER...BUT MAY SEE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. AS COLD FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD WHERE CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR FOR A TIME AS
WELL. AFTER 04Z IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND 09Z IN VERMONT WILL THEN
SEE A MORE PRONOUNCED LOWERING TREND IN CEILINGS WITH MVFR
DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES. CEILINGS WILL BE LOWEST AT SLK WHERE
IFR IS LIKELY AFTER 06Z. NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z
MONDAY. MAY SEE SOME CONTINUED SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS
NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON DECREASE AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THIS
EVENING AND FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AND
GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY...WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FROM MVFR CEILINGS TO VFR EXPECTED.
00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY
VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH
MORNING TUE- FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. 20 TO 30 KNOTS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...MUCCILLI
MARINE...LAHIFF








000
FXUS61 KBTV 211719
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
119 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGS A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK UNDER A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1023 AM EDT SUNDAY...CLOUD/POP/WEATHER FORECAST IN REALLY
GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEED THERE ON THIS UPDATE. ONLY BLENDED
TEMPERATURES INTO OBSERVED AND POPULATED THIS AFTERNOON AND MAX
TEMPS WITH LAV. THIS RAISED AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE CLEAR AREAS
INTO THE MID 70S...MAINLY CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
VERMONT. NEW YORK SIDE UNDER THE CLOUDS AND NEARER THE RAIN SHOULD
SEE TEMPS LEVEL OFF. IN FACT MASSENA HIT 70 EARLIER AND HAS SINCED
DROPPED TO 68 AT 14Z WITH LIGHT RAIN. RADAR LOOP SHOWING SWATH OF
RAIN MOVING UP ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL
MESO-VORT CENTER. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HRR MODEL
REFLECTIVITY THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL PROGRESS ON NORTHEAST BUT STAY
MAINLY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST RAIN AREA WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST. PRESENT POP FORECAST HAS
THIS COVERED WELL WITH LIKELY POPS IN NY THROUGH 18Z THEN
SPREADING IN TO VERMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK FOR TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THIS EVENING. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARE STILL FAR WEST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...SO ONLY REAL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING
WAS TO DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BY A FEW HOURS. SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AS TO HOW MUCH RAINFALL WE SEE AS LATEST RAP/HRRR PROGS
SHOW MOISTURE THINNING AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION...BUT NAM/GFS
STILL SHOW A FAIRLY SOLID LINE MOVING THROUGH. CONSENSUS IS THAT
WE`LL SEE A 3-HOUR WINDOW OF SHOWERS AT ANY ONE LOCATION...WITH
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS A QUARTER TO HALF INCH BY MIDNIGHT. FRONT
CLEARS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TURNING NORTHWESTERLY POST FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS COMBINED
WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT FEEL THIS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS VERY DRY AIR FROM 500-700MB ADVECTS INTO THE REGION BY
12Z MONDAY.

FOR TEMPS...WITH EARLY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
HIGHS WILL BE THE COOLEST ACROSS THE REGION AND RUN GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. MEANWHILE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD WHERE WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUN THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...HIGHS WILL BUMP UP INTO THE MID TO MAYBE UPPER 70S.
LIKEWISE FOR TONIGHT...LOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE
COLDEST IN THE 40S...WHILE ACROSS VT 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SUNDAY...COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK COMES
MONDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE OUTGOING
LOW AND INCOMING HIGH. ANY MORNING UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
WINNING OVER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGHS WILL RUN QUITE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S...BUT WITH A MODEST NORTH
WIND THROUGHOUT THE DAY IT`LL FEEL LIKE IT`S IN THE 40S AT TIMES.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD IN THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH SHIFTS RIGHT OVERHEAD
TUESDAY...WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
SUPPORTING SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS FORMATION...BUT NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS REBOUND ON
TUESDAY PUSHING INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 242 AM EDT SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ONLY DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS THAT THE 00Z GFS INDICATES THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MAY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IDEA HAS LESS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. BASED ON
THE 00Z GFS...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SOME CLOUDINESS WITH THE
FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS OVERALL THAT PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. MAINTAINED
A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE COOLEST TUESDAY NIGHT (UPR 30S TO MID
40S)...AND THEN GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S THEREAFTER.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME NOCTURNAL FOG
IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN
04-12Z. ALL IN ALL...A DELIGHTFUL STRETCH OF WEATHER AS WE BEGIN
ASTRONOMICAL FALL THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND DOWNWARD
INTO MVFR TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY FOR MOST TAF SITES...WITH IFR
LIKELY AT SLK. AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. MAY ALSO
SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY 6SM OR GREATER...BUT MAY SEE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. AS COLD FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD WHERE CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR FOR A TIME AS
WELL. AFTER 04Z IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND 09Z IN VERMONT WILL THEN
SEE A MORE PRONOUNCED LOWERING TREND IN CEILINGS WITH MVFR
DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES. CEILINGS WILL BE LOWEST AT SLK WHERE
IFR IS LIKELY AFTER 06Z. NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z
MONDAY. MAY SEE SOME CONTINUED SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS
NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON DECREASE AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THIS
EVENING AND FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AND
GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY...WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FROM MVFR CEILINGS TO VFR EXPECTED.
00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY
VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH
MORNING TUE- FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. 20 TO 30 KNOTS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...MUCCILLI
MARINE...LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KALY 211517
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1117 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF SUMMER WILL END ON A MILD NOTE. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA.
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL RETURN FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOCAL AREA IS LOCATED BETWEEN A COASTAL LOW LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A COLD FRONT/LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD PASSING SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND WHILE THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY EASTWARD TODAY AS THE LOW
MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE NY/CANADIAN BORDER. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.

THE COVERAGE OF EXPECTED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES
TO BE A CHALLENGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WHILE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST CHANCES WILL BE
THE LOWEST. THERE IS STILL THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE SEE TEXT ACROSS THE REGION WITH US IN THE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE WIND OUTLOOK. THEY DID PULL THE AREA OUT OF THE
HAIL OUTLOOK. GUIDANCE INDICATES MUCAPE IN THE MID HUNDREDS J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE GREATEST 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LESSER VALUES AS YOU HEAD TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS ONGONG
CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. SLOWED TIMING OF CONVECTION ACROSS FORECAST
AREA.

WARMING UP NICELY AS THE STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED AND BURN OFF
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEY DO LINGER ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST BUT ARE LIFTING. ITS ALSO FEELS HUMID/MUGGY AS DEW
POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW STRATUS HAVE LIFTED/ERODE EXCEPT FOR KPOU WHERE IT LINGERS
BUT IS LIFTING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME MIXING
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP
FOR KGFL...AND A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS
MAY DROP TO MVFR WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF THIS
OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY TERMINALS
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING
THE TERRAIN MAY ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME MIST MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT...ESP AT
KGFL/KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM








000
FXUS61 KALY 211517
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1117 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF SUMMER WILL END ON A MILD NOTE. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA.
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL RETURN FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOCAL AREA IS LOCATED BETWEEN A COASTAL LOW LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A COLD FRONT/LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD PASSING SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND WHILE THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY EASTWARD TODAY AS THE LOW
MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE NY/CANADIAN BORDER. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.

THE COVERAGE OF EXPECTED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES
TO BE A CHALLENGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WHILE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST CHANCES WILL BE
THE LOWEST. THERE IS STILL THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE SEE TEXT ACROSS THE REGION WITH US IN THE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE WIND OUTLOOK. THEY DID PULL THE AREA OUT OF THE
HAIL OUTLOOK. GUIDANCE INDICATES MUCAPE IN THE MID HUNDREDS J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE GREATEST 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LESSER VALUES AS YOU HEAD TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS ONGONG
CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. SLOWED TIMING OF CONVECTION ACROSS FORECAST
AREA.

WARMING UP NICELY AS THE STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED AND BURN OFF
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEY DO LINGER ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST BUT ARE LIFTING. ITS ALSO FEELS HUMID/MUGGY AS DEW
POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW STRATUS HAVE LIFTED/ERODE EXCEPT FOR KPOU WHERE IT LINGERS
BUT IS LIFTING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME MIXING
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP
FOR KGFL...AND A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS
MAY DROP TO MVFR WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF THIS
OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY TERMINALS
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING
THE TERRAIN MAY ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME MIST MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT...ESP AT
KGFL/KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM








000
FXUS61 KALY 211517
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1117 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF SUMMER WILL END ON A MILD NOTE. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA.
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL RETURN FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOCAL AREA IS LOCATED BETWEEN A COASTAL LOW LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A COLD FRONT/LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD PASSING SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND WHILE THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY EASTWARD TODAY AS THE LOW
MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE NY/CANADIAN BORDER. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.

THE COVERAGE OF EXPECTED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES
TO BE A CHALLENGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WHILE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST CHANCES WILL BE
THE LOWEST. THERE IS STILL THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE SEE TEXT ACROSS THE REGION WITH US IN THE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE WIND OUTLOOK. THEY DID PULL THE AREA OUT OF THE
HAIL OUTLOOK. GUIDANCE INDICATES MUCAPE IN THE MID HUNDREDS J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE GREATEST 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LESSER VALUES AS YOU HEAD TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS ONGONG
CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. SLOWED TIMING OF CONVECTION ACROSS FORECAST
AREA.

WARMING UP NICELY AS THE STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED AND BURN OFF
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEY DO LINGER ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST BUT ARE LIFTING. ITS ALSO FEELS HUMID/MUGGY AS DEW
POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW STRATUS HAVE LIFTED/ERODE EXCEPT FOR KPOU WHERE IT LINGERS
BUT IS LIFTING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME MIXING
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP
FOR KGFL...AND A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS
MAY DROP TO MVFR WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF THIS
OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY TERMINALS
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING
THE TERRAIN MAY ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME MIST MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT...ESP AT
KGFL/KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM








000
FXUS61 KALY 211517
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1117 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF SUMMER WILL END ON A MILD NOTE. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA.
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL RETURN FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER
AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOCAL AREA IS LOCATED BETWEEN A COASTAL LOW LOCATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A COLD FRONT/LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD PASSING SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND WHILE THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY EASTWARD TODAY AS THE LOW
MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE NY/CANADIAN BORDER. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.

THE COVERAGE OF EXPECTED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES
TO BE A CHALLENGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WHILE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST CHANCES WILL BE
THE LOWEST. THERE IS STILL THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE SEE TEXT ACROSS THE REGION WITH US IN THE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE WIND OUTLOOK. THEY DID PULL THE AREA OUT OF THE
HAIL OUTLOOK. GUIDANCE INDICATES MUCAPE IN THE MID HUNDREDS J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE GREATEST 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LESSER VALUES AS YOU HEAD TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS ONGONG
CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. SLOWED TIMING OF CONVECTION ACROSS FORECAST
AREA.

WARMING UP NICELY AS THE STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED AND BURN OFF
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEY DO LINGER ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST BUT ARE LIFTING. ITS ALSO FEELS HUMID/MUGGY AS DEW
POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW STRATUS HAVE LIFTED/ERODE EXCEPT FOR KPOU WHERE IT LINGERS
BUT IS LIFTING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME MIXING
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP
FOR KGFL...AND A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS
MAY DROP TO MVFR WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF THIS
OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY TERMINALS
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING
THE TERRAIN MAY ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME MIST MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT...ESP AT
KGFL/KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM








000
FXUS61 KBTV 211429
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1029 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGS A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK UNDER A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1023 AM EDT SUNDAY...CLOUD/POP/WEATHER FORECAST IN REALLY
GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEED THERE ON THIS UPDATE. ONLY BLENDED
TEMPERATURES INTO OBSERVED AND POPULATED THIS AFTERNOON AND MAX
TEMPS WITH LAV. THIS RAISED AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE CLEAR AREAS
INTO THE MID 70S...MAINLY CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
VERMONT. NEW YORK SIDE UNDER THE CLOUDS AND NEARER THE RAIN SHOULD
SEE TEMPS LEVEL OFF. IN FACT MASSENA HIT 70 EARLIER AND HAS SINCED
DROPPED TO 68 AT 14Z WITH LIGHT RAIN. RADAR LOOP SHOWING SWATH OF
RAIN MOVING UP ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL
MESO-VORT CENTER. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HRR MODEL
REFLECTIVITY THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL PROGRESS ON NORTHEAST BUT STAY
MAINLY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST RAIN AREA WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST. PRESENT POP FORECAST HAS
THIS COVERED WELL WITH LIKELY POPS IN NY THROUGH 18Z THEN
SPREADING IN TO VERMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK FOR TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THIS EVENING. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARE STILL FAR WEST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...SO ONLY REAL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING
WAS TO DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BY A FEW HOURS. SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AS TO HOW MUCH RAINFALL WE SEE AS LATEST RAP/HRRR PROGS
SHOW MOISTURE THINNING AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION...BUT NAM/GFS
STILL SHOW A FAIRLY SOLID LINE MOVING THROUGH. CONSENSUS IS THAT
WE`LL SEE A 3-HOUR WINDOW OF SHOWERS AT ANY ONE LOCATION...WITH
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS A QUARTER TO HALF INCH BY MIDNIGHT. FRONT
CLEARS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TURNING NORTHWESTERLY POST FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS COMBINED
WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT FEEL THIS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS VERY DRY AIR FROM 500-700MB ADVECTS INTO THE REGION BY
12Z MONDAY.

FOR TEMPS...WITH EARLY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
HIGHS WILL BE THE COOLEST ACROSS THE REGION AND RUN GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. MEANWHILE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD WHERE WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUN THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...HIGHS WILL BUMP UP INTO THE MID TO MAYBE UPPER 70S.
LIKEWISE FOR TONIGHT...LOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE
COLDEST IN THE 40S...WHILE ACROSS VT 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SUNDAY...COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK COMES
MONDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE OUTGOING
LOW AND INCOMING HIGH. ANY MORNING UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
WINNING OVER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGHS WILL RUN QUITE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S...BUT WITH A MODEST NORTH
WIND THROUGHOUT THE DAY IT`LL FEEL LIKE IT`S IN THE 40S AT TIMES.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD IN THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH SHIFTS RIGHT OVERHEAD
TUESDAY...WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
SUPPORTING SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS FORMATION...BUT NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS REBOUND ON
TUESDAY PUSHING INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 242 AM EDT SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ONLY DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS THAT THE 00Z GFS INDICATES THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MAY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IDEA HAS LESS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. BASED ON
THE 00Z GFS...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SOME CLOUDINESS WITH THE
FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS OVERALL THAT PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. MAINTAINED
A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE COOLEST TUESDAY NIGHT (UPR 30S TO MID
40S)...AND THEN GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S THEREAFTER.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME NOCTURNAL FOG
IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN
04-12Z. ALL IN ALL...A DELIGHTFUL STRETCH OF WEATHER AS WE BEGIN
ASTRONOMICAL FALL THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN MODERATELY STRONG FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
DOWNSTREAM OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE
INCLUDED GUSTS UP TO 28 KTS AT BTV THROUGH 16Z. FRONT BEGINS TO
BRING SHOWERS TO MSS/SLK AFTER 18Z...AND CLOSER TO 23-00Z AT
PBG/BTV...AND NEAR 00-01Z RUT/MPV. ANTICIPATE SOME MVFR CEILINGS
BOTH WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND WITH POTENTIAL LOWER
CEILINGS/VSBY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A WLY WIND SHIFT AND AREAS OF
BR DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV WITH
HIR TRRN OBSCD. GENERALLY VFR ELSEWHERE. MONDAY NIGHT
ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT
LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUE-
THU.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. 20 TO 30 KNOTS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
MARINE...LAHIFF








000
FXUS61 KBTV 211429
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1029 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGS A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK UNDER A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1023 AM EDT SUNDAY...CLOUD/POP/WEATHER FORECAST IN REALLY
GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEED THERE ON THIS UPDATE. ONLY BLENDED
TEMPERATURES INTO OBSERVED AND POPULATED THIS AFTERNOON AND MAX
TEMPS WITH LAV. THIS RAISED AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE CLEAR AREAS
INTO THE MID 70S...MAINLY CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
VERMONT. NEW YORK SIDE UNDER THE CLOUDS AND NEARER THE RAIN SHOULD
SEE TEMPS LEVEL OFF. IN FACT MASSENA HIT 70 EARLIER AND HAS SINCED
DROPPED TO 68 AT 14Z WITH LIGHT RAIN. RADAR LOOP SHOWING SWATH OF
RAIN MOVING UP ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL
MESO-VORT CENTER. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HRR MODEL
REFLECTIVITY THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL PROGRESS ON NORTHEAST BUT STAY
MAINLY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST RAIN AREA WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST. PRESENT POP FORECAST HAS
THIS COVERED WELL WITH LIKELY POPS IN NY THROUGH 18Z THEN
SPREADING IN TO VERMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK FOR TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THIS EVENING. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARE STILL FAR WEST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...SO ONLY REAL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING
WAS TO DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BY A FEW HOURS. SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AS TO HOW MUCH RAINFALL WE SEE AS LATEST RAP/HRRR PROGS
SHOW MOISTURE THINNING AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION...BUT NAM/GFS
STILL SHOW A FAIRLY SOLID LINE MOVING THROUGH. CONSENSUS IS THAT
WE`LL SEE A 3-HOUR WINDOW OF SHOWERS AT ANY ONE LOCATION...WITH
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS A QUARTER TO HALF INCH BY MIDNIGHT. FRONT
CLEARS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TURNING NORTHWESTERLY POST FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS COMBINED
WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT FEEL THIS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS VERY DRY AIR FROM 500-700MB ADVECTS INTO THE REGION BY
12Z MONDAY.

FOR TEMPS...WITH EARLY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
HIGHS WILL BE THE COOLEST ACROSS THE REGION AND RUN GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. MEANWHILE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD WHERE WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUN THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...HIGHS WILL BUMP UP INTO THE MID TO MAYBE UPPER 70S.
LIKEWISE FOR TONIGHT...LOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE
COLDEST IN THE 40S...WHILE ACROSS VT 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SUNDAY...COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK COMES
MONDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE OUTGOING
LOW AND INCOMING HIGH. ANY MORNING UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
WINNING OVER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGHS WILL RUN QUITE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S...BUT WITH A MODEST NORTH
WIND THROUGHOUT THE DAY IT`LL FEEL LIKE IT`S IN THE 40S AT TIMES.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD IN THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH SHIFTS RIGHT OVERHEAD
TUESDAY...WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
SUPPORTING SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS FORMATION...BUT NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS REBOUND ON
TUESDAY PUSHING INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 242 AM EDT SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ONLY DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS THAT THE 00Z GFS INDICATES THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MAY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IDEA HAS LESS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. BASED ON
THE 00Z GFS...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SOME CLOUDINESS WITH THE
FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS OVERALL THAT PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. MAINTAINED
A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE COOLEST TUESDAY NIGHT (UPR 30S TO MID
40S)...AND THEN GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S THEREAFTER.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME NOCTURNAL FOG
IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN
04-12Z. ALL IN ALL...A DELIGHTFUL STRETCH OF WEATHER AS WE BEGIN
ASTRONOMICAL FALL THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN MODERATELY STRONG FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
DOWNSTREAM OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE
INCLUDED GUSTS UP TO 28 KTS AT BTV THROUGH 16Z. FRONT BEGINS TO
BRING SHOWERS TO MSS/SLK AFTER 18Z...AND CLOSER TO 23-00Z AT
PBG/BTV...AND NEAR 00-01Z RUT/MPV. ANTICIPATE SOME MVFR CEILINGS
BOTH WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND WITH POTENTIAL LOWER
CEILINGS/VSBY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A WLY WIND SHIFT AND AREAS OF
BR DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV WITH
HIR TRRN OBSCD. GENERALLY VFR ELSEWHERE. MONDAY NIGHT
ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT
LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUE-
THU.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. 20 TO 30 KNOTS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
MARINE...LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 211131
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
731 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGS A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK UNDER A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO MORNING FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...MAINLY TO NUDGE BACK TIMING OF PRECIP A COUPLE
MORE HOURS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TREND. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK FOR TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THIS EVENING. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARE STILL FAR WEST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...SO ONLY REAL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING
WAS TO DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BY A FEW HOURS. SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AS TO HOW MUCH RAINFALL WE SEE AS LATEST RAP/HRRR PROGS
SHOW MOISTURE THINNING AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION...BUT NAM/GFS
STILL SHOW A FAIRLY SOLID LINE MOVING THROUGH. CONSENSUS IS THAT
WE`LL SEE A 3-HOUR WINDOW OF SHOWERS AT ANY ONE LOCATION...WITH
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS A QUARTER TO HALF INCH BY MIDNIGHT. FRONT
CLEARS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TURNING NORTHWESTERLY POST FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS COMBINED
WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT FEEL THIS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS VERY DRY AIR FROM 500-700MB ADVECTS INTO THE REGION BY
12Z MONDAY.

FOR TEMPS...WITH EARLY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
HIGHS WILL BE THE COOLEST ACROSS THE REGION AND RUN GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. MEANWHILE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD WHERE WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUN THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...HIGHS WILL BUMP UP INTO THE MID TO MAYBE UPPER 70S.
LIKEWISE FOR TONIGHT...LOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE
COLDEST IN THE 40S...WHILE ACROSS VT 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SUNDAY...COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK COMES
MONDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE OUTGOING
LOW AND INCOMING HIGH. ANY MORNING UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
WINNING OVER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGHS WILL RUN QUITE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S...BUT WITH A MODEST NORTH
WIND THROUGHOUT THE DAY IT`LL FEEL LIKE IT`S IN THE 40S AT TIMES.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD IN THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH SHIFTS RIGHT OVERHEAD
TUESDAY...WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
SUPPORTING SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS FORMATION...BUT NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS REBOUND ON
TUESDAY PUSHING INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 242 AM EDT SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ONLY DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS THAT THE 00Z GFS INDICATES THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MAY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IDEA HAS LESS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. BASED ON
THE 00Z GFS...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SOME CLOUDINESS WITH THE
FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS OVERALL THAT PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. MAINTAINED
A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE COOLEST TUESDAY NIGHT (UPR 30S TO MID
40S)...AND THEN GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S THEREAFTER.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME NOCTURNAL FOG
IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN
04-12Z. ALL IN ALL...A DELIGHTFUL STRETCH OF WEATHER AS WE BEGIN
ASTRONOMICAL FALL THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN MODERATELY STRONG FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
DOWNSTREAM OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE
INCLUDED GUSTS UP TO 28 KTS AT BTV THROUGH 16Z. FRONT BEGINS TO
BRING SHOWERS TO MSS/SLK AFTER 18Z...AND CLOSER TO 23-00Z AT
PBG/BTV...AND NEAR 00-01Z RUT/MPV. ANTICIPATE SOME MVFR CEILINGS
BOTH WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND WITH POTENTIAL LOWER
CEILINGS/VSBY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A WLY WIND SHIFT AND AREAS OF
BR DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV WITH
HIR TRRN OBSCD. GENERALLY VFR ELSEWHERE. MONDAY NIGHT
ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT
LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUE-
THU.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. 20 TO 30 KNOTS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
MARINE...LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 211131
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
731 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGS A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK UNDER A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO MORNING FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...MAINLY TO NUDGE BACK TIMING OF PRECIP A COUPLE
MORE HOURS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TREND. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK FOR TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THIS EVENING. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARE STILL FAR WEST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...SO ONLY REAL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING
WAS TO DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BY A FEW HOURS. SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AS TO HOW MUCH RAINFALL WE SEE AS LATEST RAP/HRRR PROGS
SHOW MOISTURE THINNING AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION...BUT NAM/GFS
STILL SHOW A FAIRLY SOLID LINE MOVING THROUGH. CONSENSUS IS THAT
WE`LL SEE A 3-HOUR WINDOW OF SHOWERS AT ANY ONE LOCATION...WITH
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS A QUARTER TO HALF INCH BY MIDNIGHT. FRONT
CLEARS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TURNING NORTHWESTERLY POST FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS COMBINED
WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT FEEL THIS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS VERY DRY AIR FROM 500-700MB ADVECTS INTO THE REGION BY
12Z MONDAY.

FOR TEMPS...WITH EARLY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
HIGHS WILL BE THE COOLEST ACROSS THE REGION AND RUN GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. MEANWHILE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD WHERE WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUN THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...HIGHS WILL BUMP UP INTO THE MID TO MAYBE UPPER 70S.
LIKEWISE FOR TONIGHT...LOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE
COLDEST IN THE 40S...WHILE ACROSS VT 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SUNDAY...COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK COMES
MONDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE OUTGOING
LOW AND INCOMING HIGH. ANY MORNING UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
WINNING OVER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGHS WILL RUN QUITE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S...BUT WITH A MODEST NORTH
WIND THROUGHOUT THE DAY IT`LL FEEL LIKE IT`S IN THE 40S AT TIMES.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD IN THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH SHIFTS RIGHT OVERHEAD
TUESDAY...WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
SUPPORTING SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS FORMATION...BUT NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS REBOUND ON
TUESDAY PUSHING INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 242 AM EDT SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ONLY DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS THAT THE 00Z GFS INDICATES THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MAY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IDEA HAS LESS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. BASED ON
THE 00Z GFS...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SOME CLOUDINESS WITH THE
FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS OVERALL THAT PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. MAINTAINED
A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE COOLEST TUESDAY NIGHT (UPR 30S TO MID
40S)...AND THEN GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S THEREAFTER.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME NOCTURNAL FOG
IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN
04-12Z. ALL IN ALL...A DELIGHTFUL STRETCH OF WEATHER AS WE BEGIN
ASTRONOMICAL FALL THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN MODERATELY STRONG FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
DOWNSTREAM OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE
INCLUDED GUSTS UP TO 28 KTS AT BTV THROUGH 16Z. FRONT BEGINS TO
BRING SHOWERS TO MSS/SLK AFTER 18Z...AND CLOSER TO 23-00Z AT
PBG/BTV...AND NEAR 00-01Z RUT/MPV. ANTICIPATE SOME MVFR CEILINGS
BOTH WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND WITH POTENTIAL LOWER
CEILINGS/VSBY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A WLY WIND SHIFT AND AREAS OF
BR DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV WITH
HIR TRRN OBSCD. GENERALLY VFR ELSEWHERE. MONDAY NIGHT
ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT
LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUE-
THU.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. 20 TO 30 KNOTS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
MARINE...LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 211131
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
731 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGS A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK UNDER A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO MORNING FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...MAINLY TO NUDGE BACK TIMING OF PRECIP A COUPLE
MORE HOURS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TREND. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK FOR TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THIS EVENING. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARE STILL FAR WEST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...SO ONLY REAL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING
WAS TO DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BY A FEW HOURS. SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AS TO HOW MUCH RAINFALL WE SEE AS LATEST RAP/HRRR PROGS
SHOW MOISTURE THINNING AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION...BUT NAM/GFS
STILL SHOW A FAIRLY SOLID LINE MOVING THROUGH. CONSENSUS IS THAT
WE`LL SEE A 3-HOUR WINDOW OF SHOWERS AT ANY ONE LOCATION...WITH
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS A QUARTER TO HALF INCH BY MIDNIGHT. FRONT
CLEARS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TURNING NORTHWESTERLY POST FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS COMBINED
WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT FEEL THIS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS VERY DRY AIR FROM 500-700MB ADVECTS INTO THE REGION BY
12Z MONDAY.

FOR TEMPS...WITH EARLY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
HIGHS WILL BE THE COOLEST ACROSS THE REGION AND RUN GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. MEANWHILE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD WHERE WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUN THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...HIGHS WILL BUMP UP INTO THE MID TO MAYBE UPPER 70S.
LIKEWISE FOR TONIGHT...LOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE
COLDEST IN THE 40S...WHILE ACROSS VT 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SUNDAY...COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK COMES
MONDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE OUTGOING
LOW AND INCOMING HIGH. ANY MORNING UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
WINNING OVER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGHS WILL RUN QUITE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S...BUT WITH A MODEST NORTH
WIND THROUGHOUT THE DAY IT`LL FEEL LIKE IT`S IN THE 40S AT TIMES.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD IN THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH SHIFTS RIGHT OVERHEAD
TUESDAY...WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
SUPPORTING SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS FORMATION...BUT NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS REBOUND ON
TUESDAY PUSHING INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 242 AM EDT SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ONLY DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS THAT THE 00Z GFS INDICATES THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MAY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IDEA HAS LESS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. BASED ON
THE 00Z GFS...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SOME CLOUDINESS WITH THE
FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS OVERALL THAT PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. MAINTAINED
A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE COOLEST TUESDAY NIGHT (UPR 30S TO MID
40S)...AND THEN GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S THEREAFTER.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME NOCTURNAL FOG
IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN
04-12Z. ALL IN ALL...A DELIGHTFUL STRETCH OF WEATHER AS WE BEGIN
ASTRONOMICAL FALL THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN MODERATELY STRONG FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
DOWNSTREAM OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE
INCLUDED GUSTS UP TO 28 KTS AT BTV THROUGH 16Z. FRONT BEGINS TO
BRING SHOWERS TO MSS/SLK AFTER 18Z...AND CLOSER TO 23-00Z AT
PBG/BTV...AND NEAR 00-01Z RUT/MPV. ANTICIPATE SOME MVFR CEILINGS
BOTH WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND WITH POTENTIAL LOWER
CEILINGS/VSBY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A WLY WIND SHIFT AND AREAS OF
BR DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV WITH
HIR TRRN OBSCD. GENERALLY VFR ELSEWHERE. MONDAY NIGHT
ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT
LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUE-
THU.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. 20 TO 30 KNOTS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
MARINE...LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 211131
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
731 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGS A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK UNDER A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO MORNING FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...MAINLY TO NUDGE BACK TIMING OF PRECIP A COUPLE
MORE HOURS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TREND. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK FOR TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THIS EVENING. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARE STILL FAR WEST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...SO ONLY REAL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING
WAS TO DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BY A FEW HOURS. SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AS TO HOW MUCH RAINFALL WE SEE AS LATEST RAP/HRRR PROGS
SHOW MOISTURE THINNING AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION...BUT NAM/GFS
STILL SHOW A FAIRLY SOLID LINE MOVING THROUGH. CONSENSUS IS THAT
WE`LL SEE A 3-HOUR WINDOW OF SHOWERS AT ANY ONE LOCATION...WITH
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS A QUARTER TO HALF INCH BY MIDNIGHT. FRONT
CLEARS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TURNING NORTHWESTERLY POST FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS COMBINED
WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT FEEL THIS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS VERY DRY AIR FROM 500-700MB ADVECTS INTO THE REGION BY
12Z MONDAY.

FOR TEMPS...WITH EARLY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
HIGHS WILL BE THE COOLEST ACROSS THE REGION AND RUN GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. MEANWHILE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD WHERE WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUN THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...HIGHS WILL BUMP UP INTO THE MID TO MAYBE UPPER 70S.
LIKEWISE FOR TONIGHT...LOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE
COLDEST IN THE 40S...WHILE ACROSS VT 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SUNDAY...COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK COMES
MONDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE OUTGOING
LOW AND INCOMING HIGH. ANY MORNING UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
WINNING OVER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGHS WILL RUN QUITE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S...BUT WITH A MODEST NORTH
WIND THROUGHOUT THE DAY IT`LL FEEL LIKE IT`S IN THE 40S AT TIMES.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD IN THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH SHIFTS RIGHT OVERHEAD
TUESDAY...WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
SUPPORTING SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS FORMATION...BUT NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS REBOUND ON
TUESDAY PUSHING INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 242 AM EDT SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ONLY DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS THAT THE 00Z GFS INDICATES THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MAY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IDEA HAS LESS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. BASED ON
THE 00Z GFS...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SOME CLOUDINESS WITH THE
FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS OVERALL THAT PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. MAINTAINED
A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE COOLEST TUESDAY NIGHT (UPR 30S TO MID
40S)...AND THEN GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S THEREAFTER.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME NOCTURNAL FOG
IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN
04-12Z. ALL IN ALL...A DELIGHTFUL STRETCH OF WEATHER AS WE BEGIN
ASTRONOMICAL FALL THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS AT THE TAF SITES. SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN MODERATELY STRONG FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
DOWNSTREAM OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE
INCLUDED GUSTS UP TO 28 KTS AT BTV THROUGH 16Z. FRONT BEGINS TO
BRING SHOWERS TO MSS/SLK AFTER 18Z...AND CLOSER TO 23-00Z AT
PBG/BTV...AND NEAR 00-01Z RUT/MPV. ANTICIPATE SOME MVFR CEILINGS
BOTH WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND WITH POTENTIAL LOWER
CEILINGS/VSBY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A WLY WIND SHIFT AND AREAS OF
BR DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV WITH
HIR TRRN OBSCD. GENERALLY VFR ELSEWHERE. MONDAY NIGHT
ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT
LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUE-
THU.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. 20 TO 30 KNOTS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
MARINE...LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 211120
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
720 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGS A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK UNDER A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO MORNING FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...MAINLY TO NUDGE BACK TIMING OF PRECIP A COUPLE
MORE HOURS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TREND. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK FOR TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THIS EVENING. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARE STILL FAR WEST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...SO ONLY REAL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING
WAS TO DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BY A FEW HOURS. SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AS TO HOW MUCH RAINFALL WE SEE AS LATEST RAP/HRRR PROGS
SHOW MOISTURE THINNING AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION...BUT NAM/GFS
STILL SHOW A FAIRLY SOLID LINE MOVING THROUGH. CONSENSUS IS THAT
WE`LL SEE A 3-HOUR WINDOW OF SHOWERS AT ANY ONE LOCATION...WITH
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS A QUARTER TO HALF INCH BY MIDNIGHT. FRONT
CLEARS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TURNING NORTHWESTERLY POST FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS COMBINED
WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT FEEL THIS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS VERY DRY AIR FROM 500-700MB ADVECTS INTO THE REGION BY
12Z MONDAY.

FOR TEMPS...WITH EARLY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
HIGHS WILL BE THE COOLEST ACROSS THE REGION AND RUN GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. MEANWHILE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD WHERE WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUN THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...HIGHS WILL BUMP UP INTO THE MID TO MAYBE UPPER 70S.
LIKEWISE FOR TONIGHT...LOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE
COLDEST IN THE 40S...WHILE ACROSS VT 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SUNDAY...COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK COMES
MONDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE OUTGOING
LOW AND INCOMING HIGH. ANY MORNING UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
WINNING OVER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGHS WILL RUN QUITE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S...BUT WITH A MODEST NORTH
WIND THROUGHOUT THE DAY IT`LL FEEL LIKE IT`S IN THE 40S AT TIMES.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD IN THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH SHIFTS RIGHT OVERHEAD
TUESDAY...WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
SUPPORTING SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS FORMATION...BUT NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS REBOUND ON
TUESDAY PUSHING INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 242 AM EDT SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ONLY DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS THAT THE 00Z GFS INDICATES THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MAY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IDEA HAS LESS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. BASED ON
THE 00Z GFS...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SOME CLOUDINESS WITH THE
FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS OVERALL THAT PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. MAINTAINED
A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE COOLEST TUESDAY NIGHT (UPR 30S TO MID
40S)...AND THEN GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S THEREAFTER.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME NOCTURNAL FOG
IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN
04-12Z. ALL IN ALL...A DELIGHTFUL STRETCH OF WEATHER AS WE BEGIN
ASTRONOMICAL FALL THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATELY STRONG FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST EAST OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES.
HAVE INCLUDED GUSTS UP TO 32 KTS AT BTV THROUGH 15-16Z THIS
MORNING. FRONT BEGINS TO BRING SHOWERS TO MSS/SLK AFTER 15Z...AND
CLOSER TO 21-22Z AT PBG/BTV...AND NEAR 00Z RUT/MPV. ANTICIPATE
SOME MVFR CEILINGS BOTH WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND WITH LOWER
CEILINGS/VSBY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A NWLY WIND
SHIFT AND AREAS OF BR.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV WITH
HIR TRRN OBSCD. GENERALLY VFR ELSEWHERE. MONDAY NIGHT
ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT
LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUE-
THU.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. 20 TO 30 KNOTS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
MARINE...LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 211120
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
720 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGS A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK UNDER A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 720 AM EDT SUNDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO MORNING FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...MAINLY TO NUDGE BACK TIMING OF PRECIP A COUPLE
MORE HOURS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TREND. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK FOR TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THIS EVENING. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARE STILL FAR WEST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...SO ONLY REAL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING
WAS TO DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BY A FEW HOURS. SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AS TO HOW MUCH RAINFALL WE SEE AS LATEST RAP/HRRR PROGS
SHOW MOISTURE THINNING AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION...BUT NAM/GFS
STILL SHOW A FAIRLY SOLID LINE MOVING THROUGH. CONSENSUS IS THAT
WE`LL SEE A 3-HOUR WINDOW OF SHOWERS AT ANY ONE LOCATION...WITH
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS A QUARTER TO HALF INCH BY MIDNIGHT. FRONT
CLEARS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TURNING NORTHWESTERLY POST FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS COMBINED
WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT FEEL THIS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS VERY DRY AIR FROM 500-700MB ADVECTS INTO THE REGION BY
12Z MONDAY.

FOR TEMPS...WITH EARLY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
HIGHS WILL BE THE COOLEST ACROSS THE REGION AND RUN GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. MEANWHILE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD WHERE WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUN THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...HIGHS WILL BUMP UP INTO THE MID TO MAYBE UPPER 70S.
LIKEWISE FOR TONIGHT...LOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE
COLDEST IN THE 40S...WHILE ACROSS VT 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SUNDAY...COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK COMES
MONDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE OUTGOING
LOW AND INCOMING HIGH. ANY MORNING UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
WINNING OVER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGHS WILL RUN QUITE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S...BUT WITH A MODEST NORTH
WIND THROUGHOUT THE DAY IT`LL FEEL LIKE IT`S IN THE 40S AT TIMES.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD IN THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH SHIFTS RIGHT OVERHEAD
TUESDAY...WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
SUPPORTING SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS FORMATION...BUT NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS REBOUND ON
TUESDAY PUSHING INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 242 AM EDT SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ONLY DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS THAT THE 00Z GFS INDICATES THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MAY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IDEA HAS LESS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. BASED ON
THE 00Z GFS...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SOME CLOUDINESS WITH THE
FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS OVERALL THAT PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. MAINTAINED
A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE COOLEST TUESDAY NIGHT (UPR 30S TO MID
40S)...AND THEN GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S THEREAFTER.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME NOCTURNAL FOG
IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN
04-12Z. ALL IN ALL...A DELIGHTFUL STRETCH OF WEATHER AS WE BEGIN
ASTRONOMICAL FALL THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATELY STRONG FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST EAST OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES.
HAVE INCLUDED GUSTS UP TO 32 KTS AT BTV THROUGH 15-16Z THIS
MORNING. FRONT BEGINS TO BRING SHOWERS TO MSS/SLK AFTER 15Z...AND
CLOSER TO 21-22Z AT PBG/BTV...AND NEAR 00Z RUT/MPV. ANTICIPATE
SOME MVFR CEILINGS BOTH WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND WITH LOWER
CEILINGS/VSBY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A NWLY WIND
SHIFT AND AREAS OF BR.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV WITH
HIR TRRN OBSCD. GENERALLY VFR ELSEWHERE. MONDAY NIGHT
ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT
LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUE-
THU.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. 20 TO 30 KNOTS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
MARINE...LAHIFF








000
FXUS61 KALY 211045
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THIS LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF
SUMMER.  HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG AS A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION TODAY. COOLER
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN
FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...MOST OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NYC/LI REGION HAS
REMAINED JUST EAST OF NW CT.  WE HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED POPS FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  OTHERWISE...STRATUS DECK WAS SLOWLY
EXPANDING ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND INTO THE DACKS.  SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE TUG
HILL AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

AS OF 330 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING DEPICTS A COUPLE OF
NOTABLE WAVES THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR REGION TODAY. THE
FIRST WAVE WAS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE.
THE SECOND WAVE AS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND THE LAST WAVE WAS FURTHER UPSTREAM APPROACHING LAKE
WINNIPEG. THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WERE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS IS AN EXTENSION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. PER THE LATEST HRRR/HIRESWRF REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY IMPACT LOCATIONS
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW
CT AND SOUTHERN BERKS/ THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST. HERE
MORE SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR AS WE
WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...THE COASTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT SLOW INTENSIFICATION. FURTHERMORE...UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL-EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COASTAL WAVE TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TIME FOR OUR REGION TO FULLY FEEL THIS WARM SECTOR
WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL
INTO THE MID TEENS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...SURFACE DEWPOINTS TOO WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 60F OR GREATER FOR THE REGION. AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE. PER COORDINATION FROM SPC...THE ENTIRE REGION IS
NOW WITHIN A "SEE TEXT" WITH 5% PROBABILITIES. 4KM SPC WRF
REFLECTIVITY ALONG WITH THE HRRR AND LOCAL HIRESWRF SHOW A SCT-BKN
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPES CLIMB INTO THE MID 100S J/KG
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS CLIMBING TOWARD 50KTS. SO A LOW CAPE AND
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHERE ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE
ALLOWED FOR MVFR CIGS AT THE VALLEY TAF SITES...AND IFR CIGS AT
KPSF. THE STRATUS HAD GENERALLY REMAINED SOUTH/EAST OF KALB/KGFL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT IT HAS STARTED TO CREEP NORTH AND WEST OVER
THE PAST HOUR OR SO...ALLOWING FOR MVFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO THESE
SITES AS WELL.  THE PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES EARLIER DID ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP AT KGFL...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THIS HAS
BROKEN UP THANKS TO A LIGHT BREEZE AND APPROACHING LOW STRATUS. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT THE STRATUS TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND FURTHER NORTH/WEST
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WE WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST
MID MORNING.

BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...THE LOW STRATUS SHOULD START TO
ERODE AND CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BACK TO VFR AS DAYTIME MIXING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALLOWS FOR SOME CLEARING. WHILE CLEARING WILL
TAKE PLACE FIRST FOR THE VALLEY TERMINALS...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AROUND
NOON FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AT KPSF.

THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR KGFL...AND A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER
CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN
SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...BUT THE
PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY TERMINALS
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING
THE TERRAIN MAY ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME MIST MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT...ESP AT
KGFL/KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 211045
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THIS LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF
SUMMER.  HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG AS A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION TODAY. COOLER
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN
FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...MOST OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NYC/LI REGION HAS
REMAINED JUST EAST OF NW CT.  WE HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED POPS FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  OTHERWISE...STRATUS DECK WAS SLOWLY
EXPANDING ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND INTO THE DACKS.  SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE TUG
HILL AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

AS OF 330 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING DEPICTS A COUPLE OF
NOTABLE WAVES THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR REGION TODAY. THE
FIRST WAVE WAS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE.
THE SECOND WAVE AS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND THE LAST WAVE WAS FURTHER UPSTREAM APPROACHING LAKE
WINNIPEG. THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WERE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS IS AN EXTENSION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. PER THE LATEST HRRR/HIRESWRF REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY IMPACT LOCATIONS
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW
CT AND SOUTHERN BERKS/ THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST. HERE
MORE SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR AS WE
WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...THE COASTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT SLOW INTENSIFICATION. FURTHERMORE...UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL-EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COASTAL WAVE TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TIME FOR OUR REGION TO FULLY FEEL THIS WARM SECTOR
WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL
INTO THE MID TEENS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...SURFACE DEWPOINTS TOO WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 60F OR GREATER FOR THE REGION. AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE. PER COORDINATION FROM SPC...THE ENTIRE REGION IS
NOW WITHIN A "SEE TEXT" WITH 5% PROBABILITIES. 4KM SPC WRF
REFLECTIVITY ALONG WITH THE HRRR AND LOCAL HIRESWRF SHOW A SCT-BKN
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPES CLIMB INTO THE MID 100S J/KG
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS CLIMBING TOWARD 50KTS. SO A LOW CAPE AND
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHERE ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE
ALLOWED FOR MVFR CIGS AT THE VALLEY TAF SITES...AND IFR CIGS AT
KPSF. THE STRATUS HAD GENERALLY REMAINED SOUTH/EAST OF KALB/KGFL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT IT HAS STARTED TO CREEP NORTH AND WEST OVER
THE PAST HOUR OR SO...ALLOWING FOR MVFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO THESE
SITES AS WELL.  THE PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES EARLIER DID ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP AT KGFL...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THIS HAS
BROKEN UP THANKS TO A LIGHT BREEZE AND APPROACHING LOW STRATUS. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT THE STRATUS TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND FURTHER NORTH/WEST
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WE WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST
MID MORNING.

BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...THE LOW STRATUS SHOULD START TO
ERODE AND CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BACK TO VFR AS DAYTIME MIXING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALLOWS FOR SOME CLEARING. WHILE CLEARING WILL
TAKE PLACE FIRST FOR THE VALLEY TERMINALS...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AROUND
NOON FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AT KPSF.

THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR KGFL...AND A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER
CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN
SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...BUT THE
PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY TERMINALS
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING
THE TERRAIN MAY ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME MIST MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT...ESP AT
KGFL/KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 211045
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THIS LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF
SUMMER.  HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG AS A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION TODAY. COOLER
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN
FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...MOST OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NYC/LI REGION HAS
REMAINED JUST EAST OF NW CT.  WE HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED POPS FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  OTHERWISE...STRATUS DECK WAS SLOWLY
EXPANDING ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND INTO THE DACKS.  SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE TUG
HILL AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

AS OF 330 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING DEPICTS A COUPLE OF
NOTABLE WAVES THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR REGION TODAY. THE
FIRST WAVE WAS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE.
THE SECOND WAVE AS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND THE LAST WAVE WAS FURTHER UPSTREAM APPROACHING LAKE
WINNIPEG. THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WERE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS IS AN EXTENSION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. PER THE LATEST HRRR/HIRESWRF REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY IMPACT LOCATIONS
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW
CT AND SOUTHERN BERKS/ THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST. HERE
MORE SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR AS WE
WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...THE COASTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT SLOW INTENSIFICATION. FURTHERMORE...UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL-EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COASTAL WAVE TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TIME FOR OUR REGION TO FULLY FEEL THIS WARM SECTOR
WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL
INTO THE MID TEENS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...SURFACE DEWPOINTS TOO WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 60F OR GREATER FOR THE REGION. AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE. PER COORDINATION FROM SPC...THE ENTIRE REGION IS
NOW WITHIN A "SEE TEXT" WITH 5% PROBABILITIES. 4KM SPC WRF
REFLECTIVITY ALONG WITH THE HRRR AND LOCAL HIRESWRF SHOW A SCT-BKN
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPES CLIMB INTO THE MID 100S J/KG
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS CLIMBING TOWARD 50KTS. SO A LOW CAPE AND
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHERE ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE
ALLOWED FOR MVFR CIGS AT THE VALLEY TAF SITES...AND IFR CIGS AT
KPSF. THE STRATUS HAD GENERALLY REMAINED SOUTH/EAST OF KALB/KGFL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT IT HAS STARTED TO CREEP NORTH AND WEST OVER
THE PAST HOUR OR SO...ALLOWING FOR MVFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO THESE
SITES AS WELL.  THE PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES EARLIER DID ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP AT KGFL...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THIS HAS
BROKEN UP THANKS TO A LIGHT BREEZE AND APPROACHING LOW STRATUS. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT THE STRATUS TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND FURTHER NORTH/WEST
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WE WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST
MID MORNING.

BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...THE LOW STRATUS SHOULD START TO
ERODE AND CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BACK TO VFR AS DAYTIME MIXING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALLOWS FOR SOME CLEARING. WHILE CLEARING WILL
TAKE PLACE FIRST FOR THE VALLEY TERMINALS...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AROUND
NOON FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AT KPSF.

THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR KGFL...AND A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER
CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN
SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...BUT THE
PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY TERMINALS
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING
THE TERRAIN MAY ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME MIST MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT...ESP AT
KGFL/KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 211045
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THIS LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF
SUMMER.  HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG AS A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION TODAY. COOLER
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN
FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...MOST OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NYC/LI REGION HAS
REMAINED JUST EAST OF NW CT.  WE HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED POPS FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  OTHERWISE...STRATUS DECK WAS SLOWLY
EXPANDING ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND INTO THE DACKS.  SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE TUG
HILL AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

AS OF 330 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING DEPICTS A COUPLE OF
NOTABLE WAVES THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR REGION TODAY. THE
FIRST WAVE WAS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE.
THE SECOND WAVE AS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND THE LAST WAVE WAS FURTHER UPSTREAM APPROACHING LAKE
WINNIPEG. THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WERE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS IS AN EXTENSION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. PER THE LATEST HRRR/HIRESWRF REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY IMPACT LOCATIONS
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW
CT AND SOUTHERN BERKS/ THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST. HERE
MORE SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR AS WE
WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...THE COASTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT SLOW INTENSIFICATION. FURTHERMORE...UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL-EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COASTAL WAVE TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TIME FOR OUR REGION TO FULLY FEEL THIS WARM SECTOR
WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL
INTO THE MID TEENS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...SURFACE DEWPOINTS TOO WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 60F OR GREATER FOR THE REGION. AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE. PER COORDINATION FROM SPC...THE ENTIRE REGION IS
NOW WITHIN A "SEE TEXT" WITH 5% PROBABILITIES. 4KM SPC WRF
REFLECTIVITY ALONG WITH THE HRRR AND LOCAL HIRESWRF SHOW A SCT-BKN
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPES CLIMB INTO THE MID 100S J/KG
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS CLIMBING TOWARD 50KTS. SO A LOW CAPE AND
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHERE ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE
ALLOWED FOR MVFR CIGS AT THE VALLEY TAF SITES...AND IFR CIGS AT
KPSF. THE STRATUS HAD GENERALLY REMAINED SOUTH/EAST OF KALB/KGFL
THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT IT HAS STARTED TO CREEP NORTH AND WEST OVER
THE PAST HOUR OR SO...ALLOWING FOR MVFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO THESE
SITES AS WELL.  THE PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES EARLIER DID ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP AT KGFL...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THIS HAS
BROKEN UP THANKS TO A LIGHT BREEZE AND APPROACHING LOW STRATUS. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT THE STRATUS TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND FURTHER NORTH/WEST
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WE WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST
MID MORNING.

BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...THE LOW STRATUS SHOULD START TO
ERODE AND CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BACK TO VFR AS DAYTIME MIXING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALLOWS FOR SOME CLEARING. WHILE CLEARING WILL
TAKE PLACE FIRST FOR THE VALLEY TERMINALS...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AROUND
NOON FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AT KPSF.

THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR KGFL...AND A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER
CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN
SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...BUT THE
PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY TERMINALS
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING
THE TERRAIN MAY ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME MIST MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT...ESP AT
KGFL/KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 211044
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
644 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THIS LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF
SUMMER.  HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG AS A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION TODAY. COOLER
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN
FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...MOST OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NYC/LI REGION HAS
REMAINED JUST EAST OF NW CT.  WE HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED POPS FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  OTHERWISE...STRATUS DECK WAS SLOWLY
EXPANDING ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND INTO THE DACKS.  SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE TUG
HILL AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

AS OF 330 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING DEPICTS A COUPLE OF
NOTABLE WAVES THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR REGION TODAY. THE
FIRST WAVE WAS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE.
THE SECOND WAVE AS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND THE LAST WAVE WAS FURTHER UPSTREAM APPROACHING LAKE
WINNIPEG. THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WERE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS IS AN EXTENSION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. PER THE LATEST HRRR/HIRESWRF REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY IMPACT LOCATIONS
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW
CT AND SOUTHERN BERKS/ THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST. HERE
MORE SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR AS WE
WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...THE COASTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT SLOW INTENSIFICATION. FURTHERMORE...UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL-EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COASTAL WAVE TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TIME FOR OUR REGION TO FULLY FEEL THIS WARM SECTOR
WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL
INTO THE MID TEENS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...SURFACE DEWPOINTS TOO WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 60F OR GREATER FOR THE REGION. AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE. PER COORDINATION FROM SPC...THE ENTIRE REGION IS
NOW WITHIN A "SEE TEXT" WITH 5% PROBABILITIES. 4KM SPC WRF
REFLECTIVITY ALONG WITH THE HRRR AND LOCAL HIRESWRF SHOW A SCT-BKN
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPES CLIMB INTO THE MID 100S J/KG
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS CLIMBING TOWARD 50KTS. SO A LOW CAPE AND
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHERE ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE
ALLOWED FOR MVFR CIGS AT KPOU...AND IFR CIGS AT KPSF. THE STRATUS
HAS GENERALLY REMAINED SOUTH OF KALB/KGFL...KEEPING THE LOW CIGS
AWAY FROM THOSE SITES AND ALLOWED FLYING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR AT
KALB. HOWEVER...THE CLEARING SKIES ALLOWED FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG
TO DEVELOP AT KGFL. WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE STRATUS TO EXPAND FURTHER
NORTH/WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WE WILL ALLOW A TEMPO FOR
MVFR CIGS AT KALB...AND IFR CIGS AT KPOU AS WELL...IN CASE THIS
OCCURS.

BY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...RADIATIONAL FOG SHOULD LIFT AT
KGFL...ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL RETURN TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR
CONDITIONS THERE AS WELL.  BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...THE
LOW STRATUS SHOULD START TO ERODE AND CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BACK
TO VFR AS DAYTIME MIXING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALLOWS FOR SOME
CLEARING. WHILE CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE FIRST FOR THE VALLEY
TERMINALS...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AROUND NOON FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN AT KPSF.

THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR KGFL...AND A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER
CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN
SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...BUT THE
PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY TERMINALS
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING
THE TERRAIN MAY ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME MIST MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT...ESP AT
KGFL/KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM








000
FXUS61 KALY 211044
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
644 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THIS LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF
SUMMER.  HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG AS A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION TODAY. COOLER
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN
FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...MOST OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NYC/LI REGION HAS
REMAINED JUST EAST OF NW CT.  WE HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED POPS FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  OTHERWISE...STRATUS DECK WAS SLOWLY
EXPANDING ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND INTO THE DACKS.  SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE TUG
HILL AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

AS OF 330 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING DEPICTS A COUPLE OF
NOTABLE WAVES THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR REGION TODAY. THE
FIRST WAVE WAS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE.
THE SECOND WAVE AS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND THE LAST WAVE WAS FURTHER UPSTREAM APPROACHING LAKE
WINNIPEG. THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WERE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS IS AN EXTENSION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. PER THE LATEST HRRR/HIRESWRF REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY IMPACT LOCATIONS
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW
CT AND SOUTHERN BERKS/ THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST. HERE
MORE SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR AS WE
WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...THE COASTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT SLOW INTENSIFICATION. FURTHERMORE...UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL-EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COASTAL WAVE TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TIME FOR OUR REGION TO FULLY FEEL THIS WARM SECTOR
WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL
INTO THE MID TEENS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...SURFACE DEWPOINTS TOO WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 60F OR GREATER FOR THE REGION. AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE. PER COORDINATION FROM SPC...THE ENTIRE REGION IS
NOW WITHIN A "SEE TEXT" WITH 5% PROBABILITIES. 4KM SPC WRF
REFLECTIVITY ALONG WITH THE HRRR AND LOCAL HIRESWRF SHOW A SCT-BKN
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPES CLIMB INTO THE MID 100S J/KG
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS CLIMBING TOWARD 50KTS. SO A LOW CAPE AND
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHERE ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE
ALLOWED FOR MVFR CIGS AT KPOU...AND IFR CIGS AT KPSF. THE STRATUS
HAS GENERALLY REMAINED SOUTH OF KALB/KGFL...KEEPING THE LOW CIGS
AWAY FROM THOSE SITES AND ALLOWED FLYING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR AT
KALB. HOWEVER...THE CLEARING SKIES ALLOWED FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG
TO DEVELOP AT KGFL. WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE STRATUS TO EXPAND FURTHER
NORTH/WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WE WILL ALLOW A TEMPO FOR
MVFR CIGS AT KALB...AND IFR CIGS AT KPOU AS WELL...IN CASE THIS
OCCURS.

BY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...RADIATIONAL FOG SHOULD LIFT AT
KGFL...ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL RETURN TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR
CONDITIONS THERE AS WELL.  BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...THE
LOW STRATUS SHOULD START TO ERODE AND CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BACK
TO VFR AS DAYTIME MIXING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALLOWS FOR SOME
CLEARING. WHILE CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE FIRST FOR THE VALLEY
TERMINALS...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AROUND NOON FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN AT KPSF.

THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR KGFL...AND A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER
CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN
SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...BUT THE
PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY TERMINALS
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING
THE TERRAIN MAY ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME MIST MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT...ESP AT
KGFL/KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM








000
FXUS61 KALY 211044
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
644 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THIS LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF
SUMMER.  HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG AS A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION TODAY. COOLER
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN
FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...MOST OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NYC/LI REGION HAS
REMAINED JUST EAST OF NW CT.  WE HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED POPS FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  OTHERWISE...STRATUS DECK WAS SLOWLY
EXPANDING ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND INTO THE DACKS.  SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE TUG
HILL AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

AS OF 330 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING DEPICTS A COUPLE OF
NOTABLE WAVES THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR REGION TODAY. THE
FIRST WAVE WAS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE.
THE SECOND WAVE AS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND THE LAST WAVE WAS FURTHER UPSTREAM APPROACHING LAKE
WINNIPEG. THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WERE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS IS AN EXTENSION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. PER THE LATEST HRRR/HIRESWRF REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY IMPACT LOCATIONS
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW
CT AND SOUTHERN BERKS/ THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST. HERE
MORE SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR AS WE
WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...THE COASTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT SLOW INTENSIFICATION. FURTHERMORE...UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL-EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COASTAL WAVE TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TIME FOR OUR REGION TO FULLY FEEL THIS WARM SECTOR
WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL
INTO THE MID TEENS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...SURFACE DEWPOINTS TOO WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 60F OR GREATER FOR THE REGION. AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE. PER COORDINATION FROM SPC...THE ENTIRE REGION IS
NOW WITHIN A "SEE TEXT" WITH 5% PROBABILITIES. 4KM SPC WRF
REFLECTIVITY ALONG WITH THE HRRR AND LOCAL HIRESWRF SHOW A SCT-BKN
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPES CLIMB INTO THE MID 100S J/KG
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS CLIMBING TOWARD 50KTS. SO A LOW CAPE AND
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHERE ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE
ALLOWED FOR MVFR CIGS AT KPOU...AND IFR CIGS AT KPSF. THE STRATUS
HAS GENERALLY REMAINED SOUTH OF KALB/KGFL...KEEPING THE LOW CIGS
AWAY FROM THOSE SITES AND ALLOWED FLYING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR AT
KALB. HOWEVER...THE CLEARING SKIES ALLOWED FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG
TO DEVELOP AT KGFL. WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE STRATUS TO EXPAND FURTHER
NORTH/WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WE WILL ALLOW A TEMPO FOR
MVFR CIGS AT KALB...AND IFR CIGS AT KPOU AS WELL...IN CASE THIS
OCCURS.

BY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...RADIATIONAL FOG SHOULD LIFT AT
KGFL...ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL RETURN TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR
CONDITIONS THERE AS WELL.  BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...THE
LOW STRATUS SHOULD START TO ERODE AND CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BACK
TO VFR AS DAYTIME MIXING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALLOWS FOR SOME
CLEARING. WHILE CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE FIRST FOR THE VALLEY
TERMINALS...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AROUND NOON FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN AT KPSF.

THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR KGFL...AND A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER
CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN
SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...BUT THE
PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY TERMINALS
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING
THE TERRAIN MAY ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME MIST MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT...ESP AT
KGFL/KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM








000
FXUS61 KALY 211044
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
644 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THIS LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF
SUMMER.  HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG AS A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION TODAY. COOLER
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN
FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...MOST OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NYC/LI REGION HAS
REMAINED JUST EAST OF NW CT.  WE HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED POPS FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  OTHERWISE...STRATUS DECK WAS SLOWLY
EXPANDING ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND INTO THE DACKS.  SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE TUG
HILL AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

AS OF 330 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING DEPICTS A COUPLE OF
NOTABLE WAVES THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR REGION TODAY. THE
FIRST WAVE WAS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE.
THE SECOND WAVE AS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND THE LAST WAVE WAS FURTHER UPSTREAM APPROACHING LAKE
WINNIPEG. THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WERE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS IS AN EXTENSION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. PER THE LATEST HRRR/HIRESWRF REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY IMPACT LOCATIONS
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW
CT AND SOUTHERN BERKS/ THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST. HERE
MORE SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR AS WE
WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...THE COASTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT SLOW INTENSIFICATION. FURTHERMORE...UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL-EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COASTAL WAVE TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TIME FOR OUR REGION TO FULLY FEEL THIS WARM SECTOR
WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL
INTO THE MID TEENS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...SURFACE DEWPOINTS TOO WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 60F OR GREATER FOR THE REGION. AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE. PER COORDINATION FROM SPC...THE ENTIRE REGION IS
NOW WITHIN A "SEE TEXT" WITH 5% PROBABILITIES. 4KM SPC WRF
REFLECTIVITY ALONG WITH THE HRRR AND LOCAL HIRESWRF SHOW A SCT-BKN
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPES CLIMB INTO THE MID 100S J/KG
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS CLIMBING TOWARD 50KTS. SO A LOW CAPE AND
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHERE ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE
ALLOWED FOR MVFR CIGS AT KPOU...AND IFR CIGS AT KPSF. THE STRATUS
HAS GENERALLY REMAINED SOUTH OF KALB/KGFL...KEEPING THE LOW CIGS
AWAY FROM THOSE SITES AND ALLOWED FLYING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR AT
KALB. HOWEVER...THE CLEARING SKIES ALLOWED FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG
TO DEVELOP AT KGFL. WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE STRATUS TO EXPAND FURTHER
NORTH/WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WE WILL ALLOW A TEMPO FOR
MVFR CIGS AT KALB...AND IFR CIGS AT KPOU AS WELL...IN CASE THIS
OCCURS.

BY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...RADIATIONAL FOG SHOULD LIFT AT
KGFL...ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL RETURN TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR
CONDITIONS THERE AS WELL.  BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...THE
LOW STRATUS SHOULD START TO ERODE AND CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BACK
TO VFR AS DAYTIME MIXING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALLOWS FOR SOME
CLEARING. WHILE CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE FIRST FOR THE VALLEY
TERMINALS...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AROUND NOON FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN AT KPSF.

THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR KGFL...AND A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER
CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN
SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER AS WELL...BUT THE
PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY TERMINALS
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING
THE TERRAIN MAY ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME MIST MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT...ESP AT
KGFL/KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM








000
FXUS61 KALY 211020
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
619 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THIS LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF
SUMMER.  HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG AS A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION TODAY. COOLER
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN
FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...MOST OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NYC/LI REGION HAS
REMAINED JUST EAST OF NW CT.  WE HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED POPS FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  OTHERWISE...STRATUS DECK WAS SLOWLY
EXPANDING ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND INTO THE DACKS.  SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE TUG
HILL AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

AS OF 330 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING DEPICTS A COUPLE OF
NOTABLE WAVES THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR REGION TODAY. THE
FIRST WAVE WAS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE.
THE SECOND WAVE AS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND THE LAST WAVE WAS FURTHER UPSTREAM APPROACHING LAKE
WINNIPEG. THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WERE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS IS AN EXTENSION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. PER THE LATEST HRRR/HIRESWRF REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY IMPACT LOCATIONS
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW
CT AND SOUTHERN BERKS/ THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST. HERE
MORE SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR AS WE
WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...THE COASTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT SLOW INTENSIFICATION. FURTHERMORE...UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL-EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COASTAL WAVE TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TIME FOR OUR REGION TO FULLY FEEL THIS WARM SECTOR
WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL
INTO THE MID TEENS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...SURFACE DEWPOINTS TOO WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 60F OR GREATER FOR THE REGION. AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE. PER COORDINATION FROM SPC...THE ENTIRE REGION IS
NOW WITHIN A "SEE TEXT" WITH 5% PROBABILITIES. 4KM SPC WRF
REFLECTIVITY ALONG WITH THE HRRR AND LOCAL HIRESWRF SHOW A SCT-BKN
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPES CLIMB INTO THE MID 100S J/KG
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS CLIMBING TOWARD 50KTS. SO A LOW CAPE AND
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHERE ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY TAF
SITES...AND MVFR AT THE HIGHER TERRAIN TERMINAL OF KPSF. WITH A
PERSISTENTLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
LOWER TO MVFR FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPS AND MOVES UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR NYC/LONG ISLAND...MAY SCRAPE NEAR
KPSF/KPOU OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS IN
THE TAFS WITH A VCSH. ALTHOUGH IT CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED
OUT...WILL NOT INCLUDE IFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS/UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST CIGS WILL ONLY
LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS.

CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BACK TO VFR BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS ON SUNDAY AS DAYTIME MIXING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALLOWS FOR
SOME CLEARING. HOWEVER...THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE
IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR KGFL...AND
A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR
WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY
TERMINALS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING THE TERRAIN MAY
ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR SUN NIGHT. SOME MIST MAY
DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT...ESP AT KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS
WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY
IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY







000
FXUS61 KALY 211020
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
619 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THIS LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF
SUMMER.  HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG AS A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION TODAY. COOLER
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN
FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...MOST OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NYC/LI REGION HAS
REMAINED JUST EAST OF NW CT.  WE HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED POPS FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  OTHERWISE...STRATUS DECK WAS SLOWLY
EXPANDING ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND INTO THE DACKS.  SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE TUG
HILL AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

AS OF 330 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING DEPICTS A COUPLE OF
NOTABLE WAVES THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR REGION TODAY. THE
FIRST WAVE WAS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE.
THE SECOND WAVE AS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND THE LAST WAVE WAS FURTHER UPSTREAM APPROACHING LAKE
WINNIPEG. THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WERE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS IS AN EXTENSION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. PER THE LATEST HRRR/HIRESWRF REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY IMPACT LOCATIONS
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW
CT AND SOUTHERN BERKS/ THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST. HERE
MORE SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR AS WE
WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...THE COASTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT SLOW INTENSIFICATION. FURTHERMORE...UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL-EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COASTAL WAVE TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TIME FOR OUR REGION TO FULLY FEEL THIS WARM SECTOR
WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL
INTO THE MID TEENS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...SURFACE DEWPOINTS TOO WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 60F OR GREATER FOR THE REGION. AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE. PER COORDINATION FROM SPC...THE ENTIRE REGION IS
NOW WITHIN A "SEE TEXT" WITH 5% PROBABILITIES. 4KM SPC WRF
REFLECTIVITY ALONG WITH THE HRRR AND LOCAL HIRESWRF SHOW A SCT-BKN
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPES CLIMB INTO THE MID 100S J/KG
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS CLIMBING TOWARD 50KTS. SO A LOW CAPE AND
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHERE ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY TAF
SITES...AND MVFR AT THE HIGHER TERRAIN TERMINAL OF KPSF. WITH A
PERSISTENTLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
LOWER TO MVFR FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPS AND MOVES UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR NYC/LONG ISLAND...MAY SCRAPE NEAR
KPSF/KPOU OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS IN
THE TAFS WITH A VCSH. ALTHOUGH IT CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED
OUT...WILL NOT INCLUDE IFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS/UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST CIGS WILL ONLY
LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS.

CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BACK TO VFR BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS ON SUNDAY AS DAYTIME MIXING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALLOWS FOR
SOME CLEARING. HOWEVER...THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE
IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR KGFL...AND
A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR
WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY
TERMINALS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING THE TERRAIN MAY
ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR SUN NIGHT. SOME MIST MAY
DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT...ESP AT KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS
WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY
IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY








000
FXUS61 KBTV 210805
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
405 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC DRAGS A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK UNDER A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SUNDAY...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK FOR TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THIS EVENING. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARE STILL FAR WEST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING...SO ONLY REAL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING
WAS TO DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BY A FEW HOURS. SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AS TO HOW MUCH RAINFALL WE SEE AS LATEST RAP/HRRR PROGS
SHOW MOISTURE THINNING AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION...BUT NAM/GFS
STILL SHOW A FAIRLY SOLID LINE MOVING THROUGH. CONSENSUS IS THAT
WE`LL SEE A 3-HOUR WINDOW OF SHOWERS AT ANY ONE LOCATION...WITH
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS A QUARTER TO HALF INCH BY MIDNIGHT. FRONT
CLEARS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TURNING NORTHWESTERLY POST FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS COMBINED
WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT FEEL THIS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS VERY DRY AIR FROM 500-700MB ADVECTS INTO THE REGION BY
12Z MONDAY.

FOR TEMPS...WITH EARLY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
HIGHS WILL BE THE COOLEST ACROSS THE REGION AND RUN GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. MEANWHILE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD WHERE WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUN THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...HIGHS WILL BUMP UP INTO THE MID TO MAYBE UPPER 70S.
LIKEWISE FOR TONIGHT...LOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE
COLDEST IN THE 40S...WHILE ACROSS VT 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SUNDAY...COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK COMES
MONDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE OUTGOING
LOW AND INCOMING HIGH. ANY MORNING UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
WINNING OVER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGHS WILL RUN QUITE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S...BUT WITH A MODEST NORTH
WIND THROUGHOUT THE DAY IT`LL FEEL LIKE IT`S IN THE 40S AT TIMES.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD IN THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH SHIFTS RIGHT OVERHEAD
TUESDAY...WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
SUPPORTING SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS FORMATION...BUT NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS REBOUND ON
TUESDAY PUSHING INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 242 AM EDT SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ONLY DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS THAT THE 00Z GFS INDICATES THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MAY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IDEA HAS LESS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. BASED ON
THE 00Z GFS...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SOME CLOUDINESS WITH THE
FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS OVERALL THAT PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. MAINTAINED
A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE COOLEST TUESDAY NIGHT (UPR 30S TO MID
40S)...AND THEN GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S THEREAFTER.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME NOCTURNAL FOG
IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN
04-12Z. ALL IN ALL...A DELIGHTFUL STRETCH OF WEATHER AS WE BEGIN
ASTRONOMICAL FALL THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATELY STRONG FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST EAST OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES.
HAVE INCLUDED GUSTS UP TO 32 KTS AT BTV THROUGH 15-16Z THIS
MORNING. FRONT BEGINS TO BRING SHOWERS TO MSS/SLK AFTER 15Z...AND
CLOSER TO 21-22Z AT PBG/BTV...AND NEAR 00Z RUT/MPV. ANTICIPATE
SOME MVFR CEILINGS BOTH WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND WITH LOWER
CEILINGS/VSBY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A NWLY WIND
SHIFT AND AREAS OF BR.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV WITH
HIR TRRN OBSCD. GENERALLY VFR ELSEWHERE. MONDAY NIGHT
ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT
LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUE-
THU.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 405 AM SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
CHAMPLAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. 20 TO 30 KNOTS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
MARINE...LAHIFF








000
FXUS61 KALY 210701
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
301 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THIS LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF
SUMMER.  HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG AS A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION TODAY. COOLER
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN
FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING DEPICTS A COUPLE OF
NOTABLE WAVES THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR REGION TODAY. THE
FIRST WAVE WAS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE.
THE SECOND WAVE AS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND THE LAST WAVE WAS FURTHER UPSTREAM APPROACHING LAKE
WINNIPEG. THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WERE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS IS AN EXTENSION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. PER THE LATEST HRRR/HIRESWRF REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY IMPACT LOCATIONS
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW
CT AND SOUTHERN BERKS/ THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST. HERE
MORE SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR AS WE
WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...THE COASTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT SLOW INTENSIFICATION. FURTHERMORE...UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL-EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COASTAL WAVE TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TIME FOR OUR REGION TO FULLY FEEL THIS WARM SECTOR
WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL
INTO THE MID TEENS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...SURFACE DEWPOINTS TOO WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 60F OR GREATER FOR THE REGION. AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE. PER COORDINATION FROM SPC...THE ENTIRE REGION IS
NOW WITHIN A "SEE TEXT" WITH 5% PROBABILITIES. 4KM SPC WRF
REFLECTIVITY ALONG WITH THE HRRR AND LOCAL HIRESWRF SHOW A SCT-BKN
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPES CLIMB INTO THE MID 100S J/KG
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS CLIMBING TOWARD 50KTS. SO A LOW CAPE AND
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHERE ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY TAF
SITES...AND MVFR AT THE HIGHER TERRAIN TERMINAL OF KPSF. WITH A
PERSISTENTLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
LOWER TO MVFR FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPS AND MOVES UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR NYC/LONG ISLAND...MAY SCRAPE NEAR
KPSF/KPOU OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS IN
THE TAFS WITH A VCSH. ALTHOUGH IT CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED
OUT...WILL NOT INCLUDE IFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS/UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST CIGS WILL ONLY
LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS.

CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BACK TO VFR BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS ON SUNDAY AS DAYTIME MIXING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALLOWS FOR
SOME CLEARING. HOWEVER...THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE
IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR KGFL...AND
A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR
WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY
TERMINALS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING THE TERRAIN MAY
ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR SUN NIGHT. SOME MIST MAY
DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT...ESP AT KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS
WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY
IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KALY 210701
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
301 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THIS LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF
SUMMER.  HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG AS A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION TODAY. COOLER
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN
FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING DEPICTS A COUPLE OF
NOTABLE WAVES THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR REGION TODAY. THE
FIRST WAVE WAS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE.
THE SECOND WAVE AS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND THE LAST WAVE WAS FURTHER UPSTREAM APPROACHING LAKE
WINNIPEG. THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WERE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS IS AN EXTENSION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. PER THE LATEST HRRR/HIRESWRF REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY IMPACT LOCATIONS
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW
CT AND SOUTHERN BERKS/ THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST. HERE
MORE SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR AS WE
WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...THE COASTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT SLOW INTENSIFICATION. FURTHERMORE...UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL-EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COASTAL WAVE TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TIME FOR OUR REGION TO FULLY FEEL THIS WARM SECTOR
WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL
INTO THE MID TEENS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...SURFACE DEWPOINTS TOO WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 60F OR GREATER FOR THE REGION. AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE. PER COORDINATION FROM SPC...THE ENTIRE REGION IS
NOW WITHIN A "SEE TEXT" WITH 5% PROBABILITIES. 4KM SPC WRF
REFLECTIVITY ALONG WITH THE HRRR AND LOCAL HIRESWRF SHOW A SCT-BKN
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPES CLIMB INTO THE MID 100S J/KG
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS CLIMBING TOWARD 50KTS. SO A LOW CAPE AND
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHERE ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY TAF
SITES...AND MVFR AT THE HIGHER TERRAIN TERMINAL OF KPSF. WITH A
PERSISTENTLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
LOWER TO MVFR FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPS AND MOVES UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR NYC/LONG ISLAND...MAY SCRAPE NEAR
KPSF/KPOU OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS IN
THE TAFS WITH A VCSH. ALTHOUGH IT CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED
OUT...WILL NOT INCLUDE IFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS/UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST CIGS WILL ONLY
LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS.

CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BACK TO VFR BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS ON SUNDAY AS DAYTIME MIXING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALLOWS FOR
SOME CLEARING. HOWEVER...THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE
IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR KGFL...AND
A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR
WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY
TERMINALS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING THE TERRAIN MAY
ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR SUN NIGHT. SOME MIST MAY
DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT...ESP AT KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS
WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY
IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KALY 210701
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
301 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THIS LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF
SUMMER.  HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG AS A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION TODAY. COOLER
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN
FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING DEPICTS A COUPLE OF
NOTABLE WAVES THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR REGION TODAY. THE
FIRST WAVE WAS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE.
THE SECOND WAVE AS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND THE LAST WAVE WAS FURTHER UPSTREAM APPROACHING LAKE
WINNIPEG. THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WERE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS IS AN EXTENSION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. PER THE LATEST HRRR/HIRESWRF REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY IMPACT LOCATIONS
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW
CT AND SOUTHERN BERKS/ THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST. HERE
MORE SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR AS WE
WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...THE COASTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT SLOW INTENSIFICATION. FURTHERMORE...UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL-EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COASTAL WAVE TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TIME FOR OUR REGION TO FULLY FEEL THIS WARM SECTOR
WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL
INTO THE MID TEENS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...SURFACE DEWPOINTS TOO WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 60F OR GREATER FOR THE REGION. AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE. PER COORDINATION FROM SPC...THE ENTIRE REGION IS
NOW WITHIN A "SEE TEXT" WITH 5% PROBABILITIES. 4KM SPC WRF
REFLECTIVITY ALONG WITH THE HRRR AND LOCAL HIRESWRF SHOW A SCT-BKN
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPES CLIMB INTO THE MID 100S J/KG
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS CLIMBING TOWARD 50KTS. SO A LOW CAPE AND
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHERE ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY TAF
SITES...AND MVFR AT THE HIGHER TERRAIN TERMINAL OF KPSF. WITH A
PERSISTENTLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
LOWER TO MVFR FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPS AND MOVES UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR NYC/LONG ISLAND...MAY SCRAPE NEAR
KPSF/KPOU OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS IN
THE TAFS WITH A VCSH. ALTHOUGH IT CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED
OUT...WILL NOT INCLUDE IFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS/UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST CIGS WILL ONLY
LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS.

CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BACK TO VFR BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS ON SUNDAY AS DAYTIME MIXING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALLOWS FOR
SOME CLEARING. HOWEVER...THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE
IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR KGFL...AND
A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR
WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY
TERMINALS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING THE TERRAIN MAY
ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR SUN NIGHT. SOME MIST MAY
DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT...ESP AT KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS
WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY
IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KALY 210701
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
301 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MILD DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THIS LAST OFFICIAL WEEKEND OF
SUMMER.  HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG AS A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO THE REGION TODAY. COOLER
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN
FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING DEPICTS A COUPLE OF
NOTABLE WAVES THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR REGION TODAY. THE
FIRST WAVE WAS DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE.
THE SECOND WAVE AS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND THE LAST WAVE WAS FURTHER UPSTREAM APPROACHING LAKE
WINNIPEG. THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WERE PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS IS AN EXTENSION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. PER THE LATEST HRRR/HIRESWRF REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY IMPACT LOCATIONS
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW
CT AND SOUTHERN BERKS/ THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST. HERE
MORE SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR AS WE
WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THE DACKS THROUGH THIS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...THE COASTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT SLOW INTENSIFICATION. FURTHERMORE...UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL-EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COASTAL WAVE TRACKS WELL OFFSHORE. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TIME FOR OUR REGION TO FULLY FEEL THIS WARM SECTOR
WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL
INTO THE MID TEENS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH 80F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...SURFACE DEWPOINTS TOO WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 60F OR GREATER FOR THE REGION. AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE. PER COORDINATION FROM SPC...THE ENTIRE REGION IS
NOW WITHIN A "SEE TEXT" WITH 5% PROBABILITIES. 4KM SPC WRF
REFLECTIVITY ALONG WITH THE HRRR AND LOCAL HIRESWRF SHOW A SCT-BKN
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPES CLIMB INTO THE MID 100S J/KG
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS CLIMBING TOWARD 50KTS. SO A LOW CAPE AND
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHERE ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH THE CONTINUE THREAT FOR SCT-BKN LINE OF
CONVECTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FROPA...THE COLDER UPPER POOL WITH
THE TROUGH AND THE THAT LAST WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WHICH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FURTHERMORE...LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO ASSIST
WITH DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DELTA T/S CLIMB ABOVE 13C.

MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER BRISK AND COOL DAY WITH CLOUDS
AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL /AOA
0C H850/ WILL BE OVERHEAD COINCIDING WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO PROVIDE GUSTS OVER 20KTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY/S WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE CATSKILLS LIKELY
EXPERIENCING CLEARING SKIES INCLUDING EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY OF
SOUTHERN VT. WITH THE LOSS THE SUNLIGHT...SHOWERS TOO SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BACK TO THE MID-UPR 30S FOR
THE DACKS AND 40S ELSEWHERE /A REMINDER THAT THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES/.

TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTOLYSIS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE
THERMAL COLUMN WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. SO THERE WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AS HIGH TEMPS ACHIEVE 65-70F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW-MID 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THE 00Z GEFS
SHOWS 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 1-2 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WITH ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL SITUATED JUST TO
OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE THE CORE OF WHERE THE WARMEST HEIGHTS WILL BE
SITUATED.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE STRONG SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK AS WELL. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY TO OFF
THE COAST FOR THURS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON WED...LOW 70S ON THURS...AND MID 70S FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/.
MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK TO AVOID
A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY TAF
SITES...AND MVFR AT THE HIGHER TERRAIN TERMINAL OF KPSF. WITH A
PERSISTENTLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
LOWER TO MVFR FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPS AND MOVES UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS...CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR NYC/LONG ISLAND...MAY SCRAPE NEAR
KPSF/KPOU OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS IN
THE TAFS WITH A VCSH. ALTHOUGH IT CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED
OUT...WILL NOT INCLUDE IFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS/UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST CIGS WILL ONLY
LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS.

CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BACK TO VFR BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS ON SUNDAY AS DAYTIME MIXING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALLOWS FOR
SOME CLEARING. HOWEVER...THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE
IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS...ESP FOR KGFL...AND
A RETURN TO BKN-OVC LOWER CIGS. FLYING CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR
WITHIN THE PASSING RAIN SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE VALLEY
TERMINALS...BUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS UPSLOPING THE TERRAIN MAY
ALLOW FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF FOR SUN NIGHT. SOME MIST MAY
DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT...ESP AT KPSF...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THIS
WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY
IT CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
INCREASE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO REMAIN
ABOVE 50 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE DRY OUT TUESDAY AS WE
BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE IN GUST
MAGNITUDES ON MONDAY WELL OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A TENTH TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KBTV 210646
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
246 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY NIGHT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.
THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO
NO CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...

FOR SUNDAY: MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT A RATHER SOLID LINE OF
SHOWERS/POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TO BE ONGOING ACROSS ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS. COLD FRONT ITSELF LIKELY TO MAKE SLOW
EASTWARD INROADS...NOT BRINGING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS INTO
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNTIL THE AFTN HOURS. THOUGH 850 TEMPS
CONTINUE WARMING TO +15C MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LIKELY TO PREVAIL.
HIGHS TO RANGE LOW-MID 70S FOR VT AND ONLY UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 FOR
NORTHERN NY.

SUNDAY NIGHT: COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH VT OVERNIGHT.
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT TAPER TO CHANCE/LIKELY.
HIGHEST POPS BECOME MORE CLOSELY TIED TO OROGRAPHY OVERNIGHT. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY CAA /850 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND +4 TO
+7C/ CONTRIBUTES TO LOW FROUDE NUMBERS FOCUSING LEFTOVER SHOWERS
TO THE MOUNTAINS. STORM TOTAL QPF WITH THE FRONT RANGES FROM
.75-.8" ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADRIONDACKS /MUCH OF THAT
FALLING SUN AFTN/ TO A MIN OF A TENTH OR SO IN SOUTHEAST VT.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
ACROSS VT AND UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN NY.

MONDAY: LOOKS TO BE A COOL DAY AS THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT GRADUALLY
BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE. CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL CAA /850
TEMPS FALLING BELOW ZERO/ WILL OFFSET ANY DIURNAL HEATING ONCE
INITIAL CLOUDY SKIES AND MTN SHOWERS BREAK. HIGHS LOOK TO STRUGGLE
TO CLIMB EVEN A COUPLE DEGREES FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS...UPPER 40S/LOW
50S FOR ADIRONDACKS/NORTHERN NY TO MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS VT. HIGHS
SOME 10-13 DEGREES COLDER THAN CLIMO AND NORTHWEST WINDS MAKING IT
FEEL COLDER THAN THAT.

MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN. I
HAVEN`T PUT IN ANY RADIATIONAL RIVER VALLEY FOG BUT CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE PENDING CLEARING. DRY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 242 AM EDT SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ONLY DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS THAT THE 00Z GFS INDICATES THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MAY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IDEA HAS LESS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. BASED ON
THE 00Z GFS...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SOME CLOUDINESS WITH THE
FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS OVERALL THAT PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. MAINTAINED
A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE COOLEST TUESDAY NIGHT (UPR 30S TO MID
40S)...AND THEN GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S THEREAFTER.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME NOCTURNAL FOG
IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN
04-12Z. ALL IN ALL...A DELIGHTFUL STRETCH OF WEATHER AS WE BEGIN
ASTRONOMICAL FALL THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATELY STRONG FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST EAST OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES.
HAVE INCLUDED GUSTS UP TO 32 KTS AT BTV THROUGH 15-16Z THIS
MORNING. FRONT BEGINS TO BRING SHOWERS TO MSS/SLK AFTER 15Z...AND
CLOSER TO 21-22Z AT PBG/BTV...AND NEAR 00Z RUT/MPV. ANTICIPATE
SOME MVFR CEILINGS BOTH WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND WITH LOWER
CEILINGS/VSBY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A NWLY WIND
SHIFT AND AREAS OF BR.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV WITH
HIR TRRN OBSCD. GENERALLY VFR ELSEWHERE. MONDAY NIGHT
ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT
LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUE-
THU.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
LAKE CHAMPLAIN THIS EVENING AND RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS AT TIMES. WAVES WILL BUILD INTO THE 2 TO
4 FOOT RANGE MAKING FOR ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEFORE A COLD
FRONT PASSES AND THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR TONIGHT AND LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND EVEN
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
MARINE...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI







000
FXUS61 KBTV 210646
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
246 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY NIGHT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.
THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THEN RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO
NO CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT SATURDAY...

FOR SUNDAY: MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT A RATHER SOLID LINE OF
SHOWERS/POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TO BE ONGOING ACROSS ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS. COLD FRONT ITSELF LIKELY TO MAKE SLOW
EASTWARD INROADS...NOT BRINGING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS INTO
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNTIL THE AFTN HOURS. THOUGH 850 TEMPS
CONTINUE WARMING TO +15C MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LIKELY TO PREVAIL.
HIGHS TO RANGE LOW-MID 70S FOR VT AND ONLY UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 FOR
NORTHERN NY.

SUNDAY NIGHT: COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH VT OVERNIGHT.
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT TAPER TO CHANCE/LIKELY.
HIGHEST POPS BECOME MORE CLOSELY TIED TO OROGRAPHY OVERNIGHT. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY CAA /850 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND +4 TO
+7C/ CONTRIBUTES TO LOW FROUDE NUMBERS FOCUSING LEFTOVER SHOWERS
TO THE MOUNTAINS. STORM TOTAL QPF WITH THE FRONT RANGES FROM
.75-.8" ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADRIONDACKS /MUCH OF THAT
FALLING SUN AFTN/ TO A MIN OF A TENTH OR SO IN SOUTHEAST VT.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
ACROSS VT AND UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN NY.

MONDAY: LOOKS TO BE A COOL DAY AS THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT GRADUALLY
BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE. CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL CAA /850
TEMPS FALLING BELOW ZERO/ WILL OFFSET ANY DIURNAL HEATING ONCE
INITIAL CLOUDY SKIES AND MTN SHOWERS BREAK. HIGHS LOOK TO STRUGGLE
TO CLIMB EVEN A COUPLE DEGREES FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS...UPPER 40S/LOW
50S FOR ADIRONDACKS/NORTHERN NY TO MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS VT. HIGHS
SOME 10-13 DEGREES COLDER THAN CLIMO AND NORTHWEST WINDS MAKING IT
FEEL COLDER THAN THAT.

MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN. I
HAVEN`T PUT IN ANY RADIATIONAL RIVER VALLEY FOG BUT CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE PENDING CLEARING. DRY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 242 AM EDT SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ONLY DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS THAT THE 00Z GFS INDICATES THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MAY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT DURING THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IDEA HAS LESS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. BASED ON
THE 00Z GFS...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SOME CLOUDINESS WITH THE
FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS OVERALL THAT PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. MAINTAINED
A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL BE COOLEST TUESDAY NIGHT (UPR 30S TO MID
40S)...AND THEN GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S THEREAFTER.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME NOCTURNAL FOG
IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS EACH NIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN
04-12Z. ALL IN ALL...A DELIGHTFUL STRETCH OF WEATHER AS WE BEGIN
ASTRONOMICAL FALL THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATELY STRONG FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST EAST OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES.
HAVE INCLUDED GUSTS UP TO 32 KTS AT BTV THROUGH 15-16Z THIS
MORNING. FRONT BEGINS TO BRING SHOWERS TO MSS/SLK AFTER 15Z...AND
CLOSER TO 21-22Z AT PBG/BTV...AND NEAR 00Z RUT/MPV. ANTICIPATE
SOME MVFR CEILINGS BOTH WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND WITH LOWER
CEILINGS/VSBY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A NWLY WIND
SHIFT AND AREAS OF BR.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV WITH
HIR TRRN OBSCD. GENERALLY VFR ELSEWHERE. MONDAY NIGHT
ONWARD...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT
LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUE-
THU.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
LAKE CHAMPLAIN THIS EVENING AND RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS AT TIMES. WAVES WILL BUILD INTO THE 2 TO
4 FOOT RANGE MAKING FOR ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEFORE A COLD
FRONT PASSES AND THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR TONIGHT AND LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND EVEN
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
MARINE...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI






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