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000
FXUS61 KBTV 250014
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
814 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY WILL START WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BUT CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY...BUT BELOW NORMAL
WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT THURSDAY...CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN VERMONT THIS EVENING. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT
FOR INCREASED CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST
IN GOOD SHAPE. OTHER THAN INPUTTING LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO
GRIDS...NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS GRADIENT SLACKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WL SHIFT INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN
WINDS DEVELOPING. RAP SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW SOME ENHANCED RH AROUND
800MB...BUT THINKING ANY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND
THIS MOISTURE WL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. GUIDANCE IS VERY
COLD WITH SLK MAV/MET SHOWING READINGS OF 17/18...AND AROUND 29F
FOR BTV. WL TREND A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER...BUT GIVEN VERY LOW SFC
DWPTS AND LIGHT WINDS...THINKING VALUES WL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
10S COLDER MTN VALLEYS/NEK TO M/U 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACRS THE NE CONUS WL QUICKLY
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z SATURDAY...AS PROGRESSIVE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTS ACRS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED
STATES. DEEP DRY LAYER AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE PER LATEST WATER
VAPOR TRENDS WL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT MID/UPPER LVL RH INCREASES AFT 18Z FROM SW TO NE.
BEST 850 TO 700MB OMEGA FIELDS AND ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF 850 TO
500MB RH >80% ARRIVES AFT 00Z SAT...SO WL KEEP FRIDAY DRY ATTM.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS RANGE FROM 0C NEK TO 4C SOUTHWEST
SLV...RESULTING IN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE L/M 50S NEK/MTNS TO L60S
SLV AND WARMER/UHI AREAS OF THE CPV.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...850 TO 500MB RH QUICKLY OVERSPREADS THE
FA WITH MODEST UVVS ASSOCIATED WITH 5H VORT AND DEVELOPMENT OF
MID/UPPER LVL TROF. STILL FEEL INITIAL 5H VORT AND MOISTURE WL
DISSIPATE ACRS OUR CWA ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP
FALLING AS MOSTLY VIRGA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN VERY DRY LVLLS. BETTER
DYNAMICS AND DEEPER RH ARRIVES ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION BTWN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY...WITH A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN ANTICIPATED. HAVE NOTED POCKETS OF COOLER PROGGED 85H TEMPS <0C
ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT/NEK ON SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME WET SNOW IN THE MTN SUMMITS. COLD POOL ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED SYSTEM MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON
SATURDAY...WITH COOLING PROFILES ALOFT ANTICIPATED. THIS COMBINED
WITH SOME LIMITED SFC HEATING WL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY
FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. BOTTOM LINE SAT WL BE COOL
AND DAMP WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY. TOTAL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.10 AND 0.50 OF AN INCH.
TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE U30S/M40S NEK/MTNS TO M40S/L50S VALLEYS ON
SAT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION CONTS TO DEEPEN AS
SEVERAL EMBEDDED S/W`S INTERACT WITH THIS LARGE SYNOPTIC SCALE
SYSTEM. THIS WL SLOW OVERALL MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM DOWN WITH IT
BECOMING STATIONARY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY SAT NIGHT...AND
NUMEROUS RIBBONS OF MOISTURE ROTATING ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA.
THIS COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW WL RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. GIVEN THE DEEPENING COLD POOL ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED COOLING OF LLVL THERMAL PROFILES...THINKING SNOW LEVELS
WL DROP TO AROUND 2000 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT. TEMPS WITH CLOUDS/WIND AND PRECIP WL HOLD MAINLY IN
THE 30S TO NEAR 40F...FAIRLY UNIFORMED ACRS OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 336 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST CONTINUES TO
LOOKS VERY UNCERTAIN AS MUCH OF THE CONUS WILL BE IMPACTED BY A
DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK LATE THIS WEEKEND. UPPER LOW LOW WHICH
WILL HAVE BROUGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH A GENERALLY DRY
YET COOL AND BRISK END TO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL RUN ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. AS THE LOW
SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...OMEGA BLOCK SETUPS UP
ACROSS THE CONUS WITH ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY PERSISTENT FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A SLOW PROGRESSION EASTWARD AND SOME
SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE. AT THIS
TIME...THE FORECAST DOES LOOK GENERALLY DRY FOR THE NORTH
COUNTRY...BUT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF ALL THE ABOVE SAID
FEATURES...THINGS COULD CHANGE. TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
BASED ON RIDGE/LOW PLACEMENTS...BUT IN GENERAL LOOK TO RUN AT OR
BELOW NORMAL. AS WE GET CLOSER TO THURSDAY...SIGNS ARE THAT THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND ROCKIES LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES RENEWING CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR TO PREVAIL ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. UNDER
MOSTLY SKC CONDITIONS TONIGHT...MAIN AVIATION CHALLENGE WILL BE
TIMING THE END OF GUSTS. THAT SHOULD TAKE PLACE WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LLWS MAY BE
POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AT RUT AS SFC WINDS DROP OFF THIS
EVENING...THOUGH I`VE LEFT OUT MENTION IN THE TAF GIVEN CURRENT
CONDITIONS (RECENT ALY VWP SHOWING NORTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 30
KTS AT 2-3KFT) AND EXPECTATION THAT LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL LOWER
OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID-TO HIGH CLOUDS THRU THE DAY TRENDING
LOWEST FOR THE NY TAF SITES WITH APPROACHING SFC WARM FRONT. ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FEATURE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z
SATURDAY SO EXPECT CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS
GRADUALLY VEER TO EAST/SOUTHEAST 5-10 KTS LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MIX OF MVFR/VFR WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW PASSAGE.

00Z MON THRU 00Z TUE...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR AS UPPER LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION.

00Z TUE THRU 00Z WED...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 730 PM EDT THURSDAY...RED FLAG WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT AND EASTERN ESSEX
COUNTY NEW YORK WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY
TONIGHT...ALLEVIATING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. ANOTHER DRY DAY
FRIDAY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING BELOW 30
PERCENT...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO
FIRE WEATHER...RJS






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000
FXUS61 KALY 242322
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
722 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR DIMINISHING WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW...ALONG WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SOME PERIODS OF
RAINFALL...AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 650 PM EDT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA. AT THE SAME
TIME...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IS
BEGINNING TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR AREA. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE
STILL GUSTING 20-30 MPH...THEY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES...AND WILL WIND UP
BEING LESS THAN 5 MPH BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CHILLY TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S...WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND NUMERICAL CALCULATIONS SHOW AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.  OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AN ESTABLISHED WIND SHIFT FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL USHER
IN WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING EAST INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER AND MID 60S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH THIS ESTABLISHED WIND FLOW WILL MODERATE WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER
40S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMPARED TO THE LAST MODEL RUN WITH THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION NOT REACHING OUR WESTERN AREAS OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS UNTIL AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. THIS DYNAMIC
DOUBLE BARRELED LOW SET UP WILL ARRIVE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A
VERY FAVORABLE REGION FOR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL SET UP WITH
ANALYSIS OF THE 250 HPA WINDS SHOWING A MORE DOMINANT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FORMING OFF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND AS WE PROGRESS
PAST 12Z SATURDAY. ALONG WITH STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
ENHANCING VERTICAL GROWTH UPSTREAM OF THE COASTAL LOW
CENTER...HIGHEST QPF VALUES FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW WILL BE IN AREAS AROUND THE IMMEDIATE
CAPITAL REGION POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. THE NORTHERN SURFACE LOW ALONG
THE WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SHEAR OUT BUT QPF TOTALS ARE STILL A
BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS OTHER MODELS DO HAVE PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTHERN ZONES PERSISTING FURTHER INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
ADIRONDACKS TO MID AND UPPER 50S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION WITH
LOWER 60S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW
WILL BE POLEWARD OF THE MAIN 300 HPA FLOW AND LATEST DATA SHOWS A
POSSIBLE CUT OFF LOW SETTING UP WELL EAST OF CAPE COD. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS EXIST AT THIS TIME FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE POSITION
OF THIS POSSIBLE CUT OFF LOW SHOW NO ACCORD BETWEEN THE MODEL
RESOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM MAY
BRING BANDS OF SHOWERS INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
TO MID AND UPPER 30S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH OUR REGION POSITIONED BETWEEN A SPRAWLING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLD AIR BEING PULLED SOUTHWARD
FROM CANADA WITH A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

DRY CONDITIONS WITH COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
THERE WILL STILL BE A NORTHERLY BREEZE PERSISTING...SO ONCE AGAIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

THE FORECAST FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD IS LOW CONFIDENCE...AS WE WILL
BE TRACKING A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW EMERGING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS AND GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD. SEVERAL DIFFERENT PIECES OF
ENERGY WILL INFLUENCE THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
LOW. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO DEPICT OUR REGION BEING UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN EASTERLY FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS
QUEBEC AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE WHEN PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY MAKES
IT INTO OUR AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE MOISTURE TO BE
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH...OR FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS...BUT FOR NOW WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS STARTING
TUESDAY NIGHT LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

REGARDLESS OF RAINFALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE COOL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A PERSISTENT
EASTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH A MARINE INFLUENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING
ON FRIDAY EVENING /00Z SATURDAY/.

CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. GUSTY NW WINDS OF 15-25 KTS THIS EVENING WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH ALL LOCATIONS
SEEING WINDS UNDER 5 MPH BY MIDNIGHT. KPOU/KGFL WILL SEE WINDS
DIMINISH QUICKER THAN KALB/KPSF.  LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL THEN BE
IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE
MORNING ON FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A S-SE DIRECTION AT ABOUT 5-10 MPH FOR THE LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTN ON FRIDAY. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ALL TAF SITES HAVING A BKN
MID-HIGH LEVEL DECK BY THE EVENING HOURS. IT SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH
00Z SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
FOR FRI NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED TO BELOW 30 PERCENT TOMORROW...

RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE EXPIRED ACROSS THE REGION AS RH VALUES ARE
BEGINNING TO RISE AND WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED...WITH RH VALUES
RISING TO 70 TO 90 PERCENT TONIGHT AND WINDS DIMINISHING TO UNDER
5 MPH.

FRIDAY...CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AS WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 15
TO 25 PERCENT FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BUT WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND LIGHTER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 10
MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 POSSIBLE. NO FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THE SET UP FOR CHANCE TO LIKELY CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS FOR
MOST AREAS TO REACH A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS PRESENT OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
AT THIS POINT WE ARE PROJECTING MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY
AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS. THIS RAINFALL AMOUNT SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.

LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/LFM
HYDROLOGY...LFM








000
FXUS61 KBTV 242316
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
716 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY WILL START WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BUT CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY...BUT BELOW NORMAL
WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WL SHIFT INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WITH CLRING SKIES
AND LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS DEVELOPING. RAP SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW
SOME ENHANCED RH AROUND 800MB...BUT THINKING ANY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH UPSLOPE FLW AND THIS MOISTURE WL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY SUNSET.
GUIDANCE IS VERY COLD WITH SLK MAV/MET SHOWING READINGS OF
17/18...AND AROUND 29F FOR BTV. WL TREND A COUPLE DEGREES
HIGHER...BUT GIVEN VERY LOW SFC DWPTS AND LIGHT WINDS...THINKING
VALUES WL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 10S COLDER MTN VALLEYS/NEK TO M/U
20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACRS THE NE CONUS WL QUICKLY
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z SATURDAY...AS PROGRESSIVE
WESTERLY FLW ALOFT CONTS ACRS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED
STATES. DEEP DRY LAYER AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE PER LATEST WATER
VAPOR TRENDS WL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT MID/UPPER LVL RH INCREASES AFT 18Z FROM SW TO NE.
BEST 850 TO 700MB OMEGA FIELDS AND ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF 850 TO
500MB RH >80% ARRIVES AFT 00Z SAT...SO WL KEEP FRIDAY DRY ATTM.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS RANGE FROM 0C NEK TO 4C SOUTHWEST
SLV...RESULTING IN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE L/M 50S NEK/MTNS TO L60S
SLV AND WARMER/UHI AREAS OF THE CPV.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...850 TO 500MB RH QUICKLY OVERSPREADS THE
FA WITH MODEST UVVS ASSOCIATED WITH 5H VORT AND DEVELOPMENT OF
MID/UPPER LVL TROF. STILL FEEL INITIAL 5H VORT AND MOISTURE WL
DISSIPATE ACRS OUR CWA ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP
FALLING AS MOSTLY VIRGA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN VERY DRY LVLLS. BETTER
DYNAMICS AND DEEPER RH ARRIVES ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION BTWN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY...WITH A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN ANTICIPATED. HAVE NOTED POCKETS OF COOLER PROGGED 85H TEMPS <0C
ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT/NEK ON SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME WET SNOW IN THE MTN SUMMITS. COLD POOL ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED SYSTEM MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON
SATURDAY...WITH COOLING PROFILES ALOFT ANTICIPATED. THIS COMBINED
WITH SOME LIMITED SFC HEATING WL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY
FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. BOTTOM LINE SAT WL BE COOL
AND DAMP WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY. TOTAL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.10 AND 0.50 OF AN INCH.
TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE U30S/M40S NEK/MTNS TO M40S/L50S VALLEYS ON
SAT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION CONTS TO DEEPEN AS
SEVERAL EMBEDDED S/W`S INTERACT WITH THIS LARGE SYNOPTIC SCALE
SYSTEM. THIS WL SLOW OVERALL MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM DOWN WITH IT
BECOMING STATIONARY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY SAT NIGHT...AND
NUMEROUS RIBBONS OF MOISTURE ROTATING ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA.
THIS COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW WL RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. GIVEN THE DEEPENING COLD POOL ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED COOLING OF LLVL THERMAL PROFILES...THINKING SNOW LEVELS
WL DROP TO AROUND 2000 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT. TEMPS WITH CLOUDS/WIND AND PRECIP WL HOLD MAINLY IN
THE 30S TO NEAR 40F...FAIRLY UNIFORMED ACRS OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 336 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST CONTINUES TO
LOOKS VERY UNCERTAIN AS MUCH OF THE CONUS WILL BE IMPACTED BY A
DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK LATE THIS WEEKEND. UPPER LOW LOW WHICH
WILL HAVE BROUGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH A GENERALLY DRY
YET COOL AND BRISK END TO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL RUN ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. AS THE LOW
SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...OMEGA BLOCK SETUPS UP
ACROSS THE CONUS WITH ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY PERSISTENT FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A SLOW PROGRESSION EASTWARD AND SOME
SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE. AT THIS
TIME...THE FORECAST DOES LOOK GENERALLY DRY FOR THE NORTH
COUNTRY...BUT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF ALL THE ABOVE SAID
FEATURES...THINGS COULD CHANGE. TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
BASED ON RIDGE/LOW PLACEMENTS...BUT IN GENERAL LOOK TO RUN AT OR
BELOW NORMAL. AS WE GET CLOSER TO THURSDAY...SIGNS ARE THAT THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND ROCKIES LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES RENEWING CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR TO PREVAIL ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. UNDER
MOSTLY SKC CONDITIONS TONIGHT...MAIN AVIATION CHALLENGE WILL BE
TIMING THE END OF GUSTS. THAT SHOULD TAKE PLACE WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LLWS MAY BE
POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AT RUT AS SFC WINDS DROP OFF THIS
EVENING...THOUGH I`VE LEFT OUT MENTION IN THE TAF GIVEN CURRENT
CONDITIONS (RECENT ALY VWP SHOWING NORTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 30
KTS AT 2-3KFT) AND EXPECTATION THAT LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL LOWER
OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID-TO HIGH CLOUDS THRU THE DAY TRENDING
LOWEST FOR THE NY TAF SITES WITH APPROACHING SFC WARM FRONT. ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FEATURE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z
SATURDAY SO EXPECT CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS
GRADUALLY VEER TO EAST/SOUTHEAST 5-10 KTS LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MIX OF MVFR/VFR WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW PASSAGE.

00Z MON THRU 00Z TUE...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR AS UPPER LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION.

00Z TUE THRU 00Z WED...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 930 AM EDT THURSDAY...RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 7 PM
THIS EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT AND EASTERN ESSEX
COUNTY NY.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW
1500 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN VT...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE RECENT DRY
SPELL...EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS...AND LOW MIN RH VALUES.

MOST THE CPV AND SOUTHERN VERMONT HAVE SEEN LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST FIVE DAYS...THIS HAS RESULTED IN
SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE FINE FUELS PER LOCAL FOREST CONTACTS
BELOW 1500 FEET...WHERE GREEN UP HAS NOT OCCURRED.
MEANWHILE...ABOVE 1500 FEET MOST OF THE FINE FUELS AND LEAF
LITTER IS COMPRESSED FROM RECENT SNOW PACK OR STILL WET. MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT MTNS AND NORTHERN NY HAVE RECEIVED MEASURABLE
PRECIP OVER THE PAST 2 TO 5 DAYS OR SNOW PACK IS STILL ON THE
GROUND ABOVE 2000 FEET...RESULTING IN LIMITED THREAT.

BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35
MPH ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN...PARTS OF THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THIS AFTN.

IN ADDITION...MIN AFTN RH VALUES WL DROP BTWN 20% AND 30% ACRS
NRN NY...THE CPV AND SOUTHERN VT.

THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL DRYING OF
GRASSES...TWIGS...AND DEBRIS SUCH AS DEAD LEAVES FROM LAST FALL
WILL ALLOW ANY FIRES THAT DO OCCUR TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN
INTENSELY...AND BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN. PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
ANY OUTDOOR BURNING YOU MAY BE ATTEMPTING TODAY. MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS...DO NOT LEAVE YOUR BRUSH OR DEBRIS PILE
UNATTENDED...AND HEED ANY ADVICE FROM YOUR LOCAL FIRE WARDEN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO
FIRE WEATHER...TABER/KGM










000
FXUS61 KALY 242250
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
650 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR DIMINISHING WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW...ALONG WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SOME PERIODS OF
RAINFALL...AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 650 PM EDT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA. AT THE SAME
TIME...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IS
BEGINNING TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR AREA. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE
STILL GUSTING 20-30 MPH...THEY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES...AND WILL WIND UP
BEING LESS THAN 5 MPH BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CHILLY TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S...WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND NUMERICAL CALCULATIONS SHOW AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.  OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AN ESTABLISHED WIND SHIFT FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL USHER
IN WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING EAST INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER AND MID 60S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH THIS ESTABLISHED WIND FLOW WILL MODERATE WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER
40S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMPARED TO THE LAST MODEL RUN WITH THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION NOT REACHING OUR WESTERN AREAS OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS UNTIL AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. THIS DYNAMIC
DOUBLE BARRELED LOW SET UP WILL ARRIVE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A
VERY FAVORABLE REGION FOR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL SET UP WITH
ANALYSIS OF THE 250 HPA WINDS SHOWING A MORE DOMINANT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FORMING OFF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND AS WE PROGRESS
PAST 12Z SATURDAY. ALONG WITH STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
ENHANCING VERTICAL GROWTH UPSTREAM OF THE COASTAL LOW
CENTER...HIGHEST QPF VALUES FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW WILL BE IN AREAS AROUND THE IMMEDIATE
CAPITAL REGION POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. THE NORTHERN SURFACE LOW ALONG
THE WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SHEAR OUT BUT QPF TOTALS ARE STILL A
BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS OTHER MODELS DO HAVE PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTHERN ZONES PERSISTING FURTHER INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
ADIRONDACKS TO MID AND UPPER 50S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION WITH
LOWER 60S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW
WILL BE POLEWARD OF THE MAIN 300 HPA FLOW AND LATEST DATA SHOWS A
POSSIBLE CUT OFF LOW SETTING UP WELL EAST OF CAPE COD. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS EXIST AT THIS TIME FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE POSITION
OF THIS POSSIBLE CUT OFF LOW SHOW NO ACCORD BETWEEN THE MODEL
RESOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM MAY
BRING BANDS OF SHOWERS INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
TO MID AND UPPER 30S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH OUR REGION POSITIONED BETWEEN A SPRAWLING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLD AIR BEING PULLED SOUTHWARD
FROM CANADA WITH A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

DRY CONDITIONS WITH COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
THERE WILL STILL BE A NORTHERLY BREEZE PERSISTING...SO ONCE AGAIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

THE FORECAST FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD IS LOW CONFIDENCE...AS WE WILL
BE TRACKING A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW EMERGING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS AND GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD. SEVERAL DIFFERENT PIECES OF
ENERGY WILL INFLUENCE THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
LOW. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO DEPICT OUR REGION BEING UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN EASTERLY FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS
QUEBEC AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE WHEN PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY MAKES
IT INTO OUR AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE MOISTURE TO BE
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH...OR FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS...BUT FOR NOW WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS STARTING
TUESDAY NIGHT LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

REGARDLESS OF RAINFALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE COOL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A PERSISTENT
EASTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH A MARINE INFLUENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD ENDING 18Z FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. SOME
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 17-20 KT WITH GUSTS
OF 25-30 KT THROUGH SUNSET. AFTER DARK...WIND SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE
TO LESS THAN 5 KT BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED TO BELOW 30 PERCENT TOMORROW...

RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE EXPIRED ACROSS THE REGION AS RH VALUES ARE
BEGINNING TO RISE AND WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED...WITH RH VALUES
RISING TO 70 TO 90 PERCENT TONIGHT AND WINDS DIMINISHING TO UNDER
5 MPH.

FRIDAY...CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AS WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 15
TO 25 PERCENT FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BUT WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND LIGHTER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 10
MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 POSSIBLE. NO FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THE SET UP FOR CHANCE TO LIKELY CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS FOR
MOST AREAS TO REACH A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS PRESENT OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
AT THIS POINT WE ARE PROJECTING MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY
AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS. THIS RAINFALL AMOUNT SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.

LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/LFM
HYDROLOGY...LFM








000
FXUS61 KALY 242042
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
442 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT LEAVING US WITH A COLD NIGHT FOR LATE APRIL. FRIDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
ARRIVES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
NEAR TERM PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE RIGHT OVER OUR REGION INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
WE GO INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS WE
GO INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC AND THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL DECREASE WITH TIME. WITH LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AT 850 AND 925 HPA
REACHING THE SURFACE...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO PLUMMET BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR LATE APRIL. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20 IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO MID AND UPPER
20S THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND NUMERICAL CALCULATIONS SHOW AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.  OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AN ESTABLISHED WIND SHIFT FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL USHER
IN WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING EAST INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER AND MID 60S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH THIS ESTABLISHED WIND FLOW WILL MODERATE WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER
40S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMPARED TO THE LAST MODEL RUN WITH THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION NOT REACHING OUR WESTERN AREAS OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS UNTIL AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. THIS DYNAMIC
DOUBLE BARRELED LOW SET UP WILL ARRIVE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A
VERY FAVORABLE REGION FOR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL SET UP WITH
ANALYSIS OF THE 250 HPA WINDS SHOWING A MORE DOMINANT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FORMING OFF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND AS WE PROGRESS
PAST 12Z SATURDAY. ALONG WITH STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
ENHANCING VERTICAL GROWTH UPSTREAM OF THE COASTAL LOW
CENTER...HIGHEST QPF VALUES FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW WILL BE IN AREAS AROUND THE IMMEDIATE
CAPITAL REGION POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. THE NORTHERN SURFACE LOW ALONG
THE WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SHEAR OUT BUT QPF TOTALS ARE STILL A
BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS OTHER MODELS DO HAVE PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTHERN ZONES PERSISTING FURTHER INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
ADIRONDACKS TO MID AND UPPER 50S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION WITH
LOWER 60S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW
WILL BE POLEWARD OF THE MAIN 300 HPA FLOW AND LATEST DATA SHOWS A
POSSIBLE CUT OFF LOW SETTING UP WELL EAST OF CAPE COD. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS EXIST AT THIS TIME FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE POSITION
OF THIS POSSIBLE CUT OFF LOW SHOW NO ACCORD BETWEEN THE MODEL
RESOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM MAY
BRING BANDS OF SHOWERS INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
TO MID AND UPPER 30S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH OUR REGION POSITIONED BETWEEN A SPRAWLING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLD AIR BEING PULLED SOUTHWARD
FROM CANADA WITH A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

DRY CONDITIONS WITH COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
THERE WILL STILL BE A NORTHERLY BREEZE PERSISTING...SO ONCE AGAIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

THE FORECAST FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD IS LOW CONFIDENCE...AS WE WILL
BE TRACKING A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW EMERGING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS AND GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD. SEVERAL DIFFERENT PIECES OF
ENERGY WILL INFLUENCE THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
LOW. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO DEPICT OUR REGION BEING UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN EASTERLY FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS
QUEBEC AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE WHEN PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY MAKES
IT INTO OUR AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE MOISTURE TO BE
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH...OR FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS...BUT FOR NOW WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS STARTING
TUESDAY NIGHT LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

REGARDLESS OF RAINFALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE COOL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A PERSISTENT
EASTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH A MARINE INFLUENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD ENDING 18Z FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. SOME
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 17-20 KT WITH GUSTS
OF 25-30 KT THROUGH SUNSET. AFTER DARK...WIND SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE
TO LESS THAN 5 KT BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
EAST CENTRAL NEW YOUR EXCLUDING THE ADIRONDACKS REGION...

...HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED TO BELOW 30 PERCENT TOMORROW...

THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE 30
PERCENT.

FRIDAY...CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AS WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 15
TO 25 PERCENT FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BUT WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND LIGHTER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 10
MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 POSSIBLE. NO FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THE SET UP FOR CHANCE TO LIKELY CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS FOR
MOST AREAS TO REACH A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS PRESENT OVER
THE WEEKEND.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
AT THIS POINT WE ARE PROJECTING MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY
AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS. THIS RAINFALL AMOUNT SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.

LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ038>041-
     043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
MA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...LFM
HYDROLOGY...LFM








000
FXUS61 KBTV 241937
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
337 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY WILL START WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BUT CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY...BUT BELOW NORMAL
WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WL SHIFT INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WITH CLRING SKIES
AND LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS DEVELOPING. RAP SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW
SOME ENHANCED RH AROUND 800MB...BUT THINKING ANY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH UPSLOPE FLW AND THIS MOISTURE WL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY SUNSET.
GUIDANCE IS VERY COLD WITH SLK MAV/MET SHOWING READINGS OF
17/18...AND AROUND 29F FOR BTV. WL TREND A COUPLE DEGREES
HIGHER...BUT GIVEN VERY LOW SFC DWPTS AND LIGHT WINDS...THINKING
VALUES WL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 10S COLDER MTN VALLEYS/NEK TO M/U
20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACRS THE NE CONUS WL QUICKLY
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z SATURDAY...AS PROGRESSIVE
WESTERLY FLW ALOFT CONTS ACRS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED
STATES. DEEP DRY LAYER AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE PER LATEST WATER
VAPOR TRENDS WL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT MID/UPPER LVL RH INCREASES AFT 18Z FROM SW TO NE.
BEST 850 TO 700MB OMEGA FIELDS AND ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF 850 TO
500MB RH >80% ARRIVES AFT 00Z SAT...SO WL KEEP FRIDAY DRY ATTM.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS RANGE FROM 0C NEK TO 4C SOUTHWEST
SLV...RESULTING IN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE L/M 50S NEK/MTNS TO L60S
SLV AND WARMER/UHI AREAS OF THE CPV.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...850 TO 500MB RH QUICKLY OVERSPREADS THE
FA WITH MODEST UVVS ASSOCIATED WITH 5H VORT AND DEVELOPMENT OF
MID/UPPER LVL TROF. STILL FEEL INITIAL 5H VORT AND MOISTURE WL
DISSIPATE ACRS OUR CWA ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP
FALLING AS MOSTLY VIRGA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN VERY DRY LVLLS. BETTER
DYNAMICS AND DEEPER RH ARRIVES ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION BTWN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY...WITH A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN ANTICIPATED. HAVE NOTED POCKETS OF COOLER PROGGED 85H TEMPS <0C
ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT/NEK ON SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME WET SNOW IN THE MTN SUMMITS. COLD POOL ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED SYSTEM MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON
SATURDAY...WITH COOLING PROFILES ALOFT ANTICIPATED. THIS COMBINED
WITH SOME LIMITED SFC HEATING WL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY
FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. BOTTOM LINE SAT WL BE COOL
AND DAMP WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY. TOTAL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.10 AND 0.50 OF AN INCH.
TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE U30S/M40S NEK/MTNS TO M40S/L50S VALLEYS ON
SAT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION CONTS TO DEEPEN AS
SEVERAL EMBEDDED S/W`S INTERACT WITH THIS LARGE SYNOPTIC SCALE
SYSTEM. THIS WL SLOW OVERALL MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM DOWN WITH IT
BECOMING STATIONARY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY SAT NIGHT...AND
NUMEROUS RIBBONS OF MOISTURE ROTATING ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA.
THIS COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW WL RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. GIVEN THE DEEPENING COLD POOL ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED COOLING OF LLVL THERMAL PROFILES...THINKING SNOW LEVELS
WL DROP TO AROUND 2000 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT. TEMPS WITH CLOUDS/WIND AND PRECIP WL HOLD MAINLY IN
THE 30S TO NEAR 40F...FAIRLY UNIFORMED ACRS OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 336 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST CONTINUES TO
LOOKS VERY UNCERTAIN AS MUCH OF THE CONUS WILL BE IMPACTED BY A
DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK LATE THIS WEEKEND. UPPER LOW LOW WHICH
WILL HAVE BROUGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH A GENERALLY DRY
YET COOL AND BRISK END TO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL RUN ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. AS THE LOW
SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...OMEGA BLOCK SETUPS UP
ACROSS THE CONUS WITH ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY PERSISTENT FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A SLOW PROGRESSION EASTWARD AND SOME
SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE. AT THIS
TIME...THE FORECAST DOES LOOK GENERALLY DRY FOR THE NORTH
COUNTRY...BUT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF ALL THE ABOVE SAID
FEATURES...THINGS COULD CHANGE. TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
BASED ON RIDGE/LOW PLACEMENTS...BUT IN GENERAL LOOK TO RUN AT OR
BELOW NORMAL. AS WE GET CLOSER TO THURSDAY...SIGNS ARE THAT THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND ROCKIES LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES RENEWING CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING SCT-
BKN VFR DECK OVER NE VT WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT TO SKC AND GUSTY
NW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL ABATE. EXPECT A PERIOD OF SKC ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION 00-06Z...THEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AT 10-15KFT MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT...VFR WITH CIGS SLOWLY LOWERING TO NEAR 5KFT.

00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MIX OF MVFR/VFR WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW PASSAGE.

00Z MON THRU 00Z TUE...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR AS UPPER LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION.

00Z TUE THRU 00Z WED...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 930 AM EDT THURSDAY...RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 7 PM
THIS EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT AND EASTERN ESSEX
COUNTY NY.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW
1500 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN VT...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE RECENT DRY
SPELL...EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS...AND LOW MIN RH VALUES.

MOST THE CPV AND SOUTHERN VERMONT HAVE SEEN LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST FIVE DAYS...THIS HAS RESULTED IN
SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE FINE FUELS PER LOCAL FOREST CONTACTS
BELOW 1500 FEET...WHERE GREEN UP HAS NOT OCCURRED.
MEANWHILE...ABOVE 1500 FEET MOST OF THE FINE FUELS AND LEAF
LITTER IS COMPRESSED FROM RECENT SNOW PACK OR STILL WET. MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT MTNS AND NORTHERN NY HAVE RECEIVED MEASURABLE
PRECIP OVER THE PAST 2 TO 5 DAYS OR SNOW PACK IS STILL ON THE
GROUND ABOVE 2000 FEET...RESULTING IN LIMITED THREAT.

BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35
MPH ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN...PARTS OF THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THIS AFTN.

IN ADDITION...MIN AFTN RH VALUES WL DROP BTWN 20% AND 30% ACRS
NRN NY...THE CPV AND SOUTHERN VT.

THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL DRYING OF
GRASSES...TWIGS...AND DEBRIS SUCH AS DEAD LEAVES FROM LAST FALL
WILL ALLOW ANY FIRES THAT DO OCCUR TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN
INTENSELY...AND BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN. PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
ANY OUTDOOR BURNING YOU MAY BE ATTEMPTING TODAY. MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS...DO NOT LEAVE YOUR BRUSH OR DEBRIS PILE
UNATTENDED...AND HEED ANY ADVICE FROM YOUR LOCAL FIRE WARDEN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ009>012.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
FIRE WEATHER...TABER/KGM








000
FXUS61 KBTV 241921
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
321 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY WILL START WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BUT CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY...BUT BELOW NORMAL
WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WL SHIFT INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WITH CLRING SKIES
AND LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS DEVELOPING. RAP SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW
SOME ENHANCED RH AROUND 800MB...BUT THINKING ANY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH UPSLOPE FLW AND THIS MOISTURE WL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY SUNSET.
GUIDANCE IS VERY COLD WITH SLK MAV/MET SHOWING READINGS OF
17/18...AND AROUND 29F FOR BTV. WL TREND A COUPLE DEGREES
HIGHER...BUT GIVEN VERY LOW SFC DWPTS AND LIGHT WINDS...THINKING
VALUES WL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 10S COLDER MTN VALLEYS/NEK TO M/U
20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACRS THE NE CONUS WL QUICKLY
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z SATURDAY...AS PROGRESSIVE
WESTERLY FLW ALOFT CONTS ACRS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED
STATES. DEEP DRY LAYER AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE PER LATEST WATER
VAPOR TRENDS WL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT MID/UPPER LVL RH INCREASES AFT 18Z FROM SW TO NE.
BEST 850 TO 700MB OMEGA FIELDS AND ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF 850 TO
500MB RH >80% ARRIVES AFT 00Z SAT...SO WL KEEP FRIDAY DRY ATTM.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS RANGE FROM 0C NEK TO 4C SOUTHWEST
SLV...RESULTING IN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE L/M 50S NEK/MTNS TO L60S
SLV AND WARMER/UHI AREAS OF THE CPV.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...850 TO 500MB RH QUICKLY OVERSPREADS THE
FA WITH MODEST UVVS ASSOCIATED WITH 5H VORT AND DEVELOPMENT OF
MID/UPPER LVL TROF. STILL FEEL INITIAL 5H VORT AND MOISTURE WL
DISSIPATE ACRS OUR CWA ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP
FALLING AS MOSTLY VIRGA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN VERY DRY LVLLS. BETTER
DYNAMICS AND DEEPER RH ARRIVES ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION BTWN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY...WITH A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN ANTICIPATED. HAVE NOTED POCKETS OF COOLER PROGGED 85H TEMPS <0C
ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT/NEK ON SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME WET SNOW IN THE MTN SUMMITS. COLD POOL ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED SYSTEM MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON
SATURDAY...WITH COOLING PROFILES ALOFT ANTICIPATED. THIS COMBINED
WITH SOME LIMITED SFC HEATING WL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY
FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. BOTTOM LINE SAT WL BE COOL
AND DAMP WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY. TOTAL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.10 AND 0.50 OF AN INCH.
TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE U30S/M40S NEK/MTNS TO M40S/L50S VALLEYS ON
SAT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION CONTS TO DEEPEN AS
SEVERAL EMBEDDED S/W`S INTERACT WITH THIS LARGE SYNOPTIC SCALE
SYSTEM. THIS WL SLOW OVERALL MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM DOWN WITH IT
BECOMING STATIONARY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY SAT NIGHT...AND
NUMEROUS RIBBONS OF MOISTURE ROTATING ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA.
THIS COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW WL RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. GIVEN THE DEEPENING COLD POOL ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED COOLING OF LLVL THERMAL PROFILES...THINKING SNOW LEVELS
WL DROP TO AROUND 2000 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT. TEMPS WITH CLOUDS/WIND AND PRECIP WL HOLD MAINLY IN
THE 30S TO NEAR 40F...FAIRLY UNIFORMED ACRS OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 407 AM EDT THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW A CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY...BUT THE FORECAST AREA WILL STILL
BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW...SO HAVE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. EXPECTING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST VERMONT. A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA AND REMAINS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES FOR THE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FORECAST. THUS...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. ECMWF MODEL HAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT OVER THE REGION WITH A DRY FORECAST INDICATED FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY... AS ECMWF MODEL SUGGESTING THE REGION WILL BE
UNDER AN OMEGA BLOCK WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
ATLANTIC SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...GFS MODEL
SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALSO OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WITH THE OTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW MUCH FURTHER EAST IN THE ATLANTIC
THAN DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF MODEL. GFS MODEL BRINGS MOISTURE
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FOR NOW...WILL USE SUPER
BLEND POPS AND KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING SCT-
BKN VFR DECK OVER NE VT WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT TO SKC AND GUSTY
NW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL ABATE. EXPECT A PERIOD OF SKC ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION 00-06Z...THEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AT 10-15KFT MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT...VFR WITH CIGS SLOWLY LOWERING TO NEAR 5KFT.

00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MIX OF MVFR/VFR WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW PASSAGE.

00Z MON THRU 00Z TUE...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR AS UPPER LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION.

00Z TUE THRU 00Z WED...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 930 AM EDT THURSDAY...RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 7 PM
THIS EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT AND EASTERN ESSEX
COUNTY NY.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW
1500 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN VT...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE RECENT DRY
SPELL...EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS...AND LOW MIN RH VALUES.

MOST THE CPV AND SOUTHERN VERMONT HAVE SEEN LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST FIVE DAYS...THIS HAS RESULTED IN
SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE FINE FUELS PER LOCAL FOREST CONTACTS
BELOW 1500 FEET...WHERE GREEN UP HAS NOT OCCURRED.
MEANWHILE...ABOVE 1500 FEET MOST OF THE FINE FUELS AND LEAF
LITTER IS COMPRESSED FROM RECENT SNOW PACK OR STILL WET. MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT MTNS AND NORTHERN NY HAVE RECEIVED MEASURABLE
PRECIP OVER THE PAST 2 TO 5 DAYS OR SNOW PACK IS STILL ON THE
GROUND ABOVE 2000 FEET...RESULTING IN LIMITED THREAT.

BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35
MPH ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN...PARTS OF THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THIS AFTN.

IN ADDITION...MIN AFTN RH VALUES WL DROP BTWN 20% AND 30% ACRS
NRN NY...THE CPV AND SOUTHERN VT.

THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL DRYING OF
GRASSES...TWIGS...AND DEBRIS SUCH AS DEAD LEAVES FROM LAST FALL
WILL ALLOW ANY FIRES THAT DO OCCUR TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN
INTENSELY...AND BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN. PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
ANY OUTDOOR BURNING YOU MAY BE ATTEMPTING TODAY. MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS...DO NOT LEAVE YOUR BRUSH OR DEBRIS PILE
UNATTENDED...AND HEED ANY ADVICE FROM YOUR LOCAL FIRE WARDEN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ009>012.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...LAHIFF
FIRE WEATHER...TABER/KGM








000
FXUS61 KBTV 241733
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
133 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...BRINGING
CLEARING SKIES AND GUSTY WINDS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER
AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON EACH NIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ONLY MINOR
ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 102 PM EDT THURSDAY...FCST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS AFTN WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LOWERING RH VALUES. RED FLAG WARNING STILL
LOOKS GOOD WITH LATEST 1PM OBS AT VSF SHOWING RH DOWN TO 32% AND
WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS. STILL EXPECTING RH VALUES TO DROP BTWN
20 AND 30% THIS AFTN IN THE WARNING AREA. VIS SATL STILL SHOWING
CLOUDS ACRS NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT WITH A BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK.
THESE SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE THIS AFTN...AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
DEVELOPS FROM LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. TEMPS WL WARM ANOTHER 2 TO 4
DEGREES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S MTNS TO M50S WARMER
VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 505 AM EDT THURSDAY...LVL JET QUICKLY EXITS E THIS
EVENING...AS SFC RIDGE SETS UP TO CREST OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN LGT TO CALM
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CHILLY OVERNGT MIN TEMPS. EXPECT
VALLEYS TO SEE FRIDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE M20S...WITH HIR TRRN IN
THE MID TEENS TO L20S.

FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE S AHEAD OF SFC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW
WILL TRACK ENE...INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
FRIDAY MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS
TO EDGE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXACT TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM STILL UNSURE AS
MODELS SUGGEST DOUBLE BARREL SYSTEM TAKING MOST OF ITS ENERGY OFF
THE LONG ISLAND COAST. THIS WOULD AFFECT HOW MUCH QPF THE NORTH
COUNTRY WOULD RECEIVE. EXPECT MOISTURE TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...MAKING FOR A
DREARY FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL BEFORE COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 407 AM EDT THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW A CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY...BUT THE FORECAST AREA WILL STILL
BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW...SO HAVE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. EXPECTING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST VERMONT. A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA AND REMAINS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES FOR THE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FORECAST. THUS...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. ECMWF MODEL HAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT OVER THE REGION WITH A DRY FORECAST INDICATED FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY... AS ECMWF MODEL SUGGESTING THE REGION WILL BE
UNDER AN OMEGA BLOCK WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
ATLANTIC SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...GFS MODEL
SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALSO OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WITH THE OTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW MUCH FURTHER EAST IN THE ATLANTIC
THAN DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF MODEL. GFS MODEL BRINGS MOISTURE
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FOR NOW...WILL USE SUPER
BLEND POPS AND KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING SCT-
BKN VFR DECK OVER NE VT WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT TO SKC AND GUSTY
NW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL ABATE. EXPECT A PERIOD OF SKC ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION 00-06Z...THEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AT 10-15KFT MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT...VFR WITH CIGS SLOWLY LOWERING TO NEAR 5KFT.

00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MIX OF MVFR/VFR WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW PASSAGE.

00Z MON THRU 00Z TUE...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR AS UPPER LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION.

00Z TUE THRU 00Z WED...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 930 AM EDT THURSDAY...UPDATED FOR RED FLAG WARNING FOR PARTS
OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT ZNS BELOW 1500 FEET AND EASTERN ESSEX
COUNTY NY.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW
1500 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN VT...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE RECENT DRY
SPELL...EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS...AND LOW MIN RH VALUES.

MOST THE CPV AND SOUTHERN VERMONT HAVE SEEN LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST FIVE DAYS...THIS HAS RESULTED IN
SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE FINE FUELS PER LOCAL FOREST CONTACTS
BELOW 1500 FEET...WHERE GREEN UP HAS NOT OCCURRED.
MEANWHILE...ABOVE 1500 FEET MOST OF THE FINE FUELS AND LEAF
LITTER IS COMPRESSED FROM RECENT SNOW PACK OR STILL WET. MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT MTNS AND NORTHERN NY HAVE RECEIVED MEASURABLE
PRECIP OVER THE PAST 2 TO 5 DAYS OR SNOW PACK IS STILL ON THE
GROUND ABOVE 2000 FEET...RESULTING IN LIMITED THREAT.

BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35
MPH ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN...PARTS OF THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THIS AFTN. ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE PSBL ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MTNS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AND STRONGER LOW LVL JET NEAR
SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT.

IN ADDITION...MIN AFTN RH VALUES WL DROP BTWN 15% AND 25% BTWN 1
PM AND 5PM ACRS NRN NY...THE CPV AND SOUTHERN VT.

THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL DRYING OF
GRASSES...TWIGS...AND DEBRIS SUCH AS DEAD LEAVES FROM LAST FALL
WILL ALLOW ANY FIRES THAT DO OCCUR TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN
INTENSELY...AND BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN. PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
ANY OUTDOOR BURNING YOU MAY BE ATTEMPTING TODAY. MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS...DO NOT LEAVE YOUR BRUSH OR DEBRIS PILE
UNATTENDED...AND HEED ANY ADVICE FROM YOUR LOCAL FIRE WARDEN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ009>012.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...LAHIFF
FIRE WEATHER...TABER/KGM








000
FXUS61 KALY 241712
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
112 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST IN THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. IT
WILL BE A BRISK DAY BUT WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT LEAVING US WITH A COLD NIGHT FOR LATE APRIL. FRIDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 EDT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE WINDY THOUGH DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE GULF
OF MAINE...AND THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WINDS ARE
BEGINNING TO PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH MANY ASOS AND OTHER
OBSERVATION SITES ALREADY SEEING WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 TO 40 MPH.
SUNSHINE WILL ATTEMPT TO HEAT UP THE SURFACE TODAY. WITH STILL
PLENTY OF COLD AIR ALOFT...THIS HEATING WILL PRODUCE EXCELLENT
MIXING WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT...PRODUCING PRETTY IMPRESSIVE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS. THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE
TO 15 TO 25 MPH...BUT WILL GUST OVER 35 MPH EVERYWHERE...PERHAPS
UP TO 45 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN/35-40 MPH ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

THE COMBINATION OF THESE GUSTY WINDS...VERY LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES
AND THE LACK OF A GOOD WETTING RAIN IN DAYS...HAS PROMPTED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA. FOR MORE ON
THESE...PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST DISCUSSION FOUND
LATER IN THE AFD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP BETWEEN 55 TO 60 IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER
40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY RELAX AS LOW PRESSURE
FINALLY MOVES FURTHER EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS A LITTLE AS IT
CREST OVER THE REGION. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A RAPID DIMINISHING OF
THE WIND THIS EVENING. THE SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR...WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS WILL OFFER BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS DESPITE SOME WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DIP TO AROUND 30 FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTHWARD...LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A MUCH MORE TRANQUIL DAY. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASES...IT NOW APPEARS FROM THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
COLLECTION THAT ANY RAIN FROM THE NEXT DISTURBANCE...SHOULD STAY
MAINLY WEST OF OUR REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT
SNEAK INTO AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. THE
COMBINATION OF SOME SUNSHINE...A BREEZE TURNING SOUTHERLY AND
PICKING UP TO AROUND 10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON...GOOD MIXING AND
WARM ADVECTION...WILL GIVE TEMPERATURES A BUMP UPWARD. LOOK FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS MOST AREAS...CLOSER TO 60 EVEN
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE...AN OCCLUDED FRONT
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION AND BRING SHOWERS.
ALL MODELS SUGGEST THE OLD PRIMARY LOW THAT WILL RIDE BY TO OUR
NORTH WILL WEAKEN WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
THIS SECONDARY LOW MIGHT ACTUALLY BRING A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BUT THIS SCENARIO IS NOT ETCHED IN
STONE YET. FOR NOW WE WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

IT MIGHT JUST COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE RAIN TO MIX
WITH OR MAYBE EVEN CHANGE TO WET SNOW OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT LOOKS LIGHT TO NIL.

THE SECONDARY LOW WILL PULL AWAY ON SATURDAY. A DRY SLOT SHOULD
BRING A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE TO SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE STORM WILL WORK
ACROSS THE REGION FROM ALBANY NORTH BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE WILL
CARRY THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHERN
WHILE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD. IN FACT...OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS MIGHT SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE.

THE AIR ALOFT WILL BE COOLING SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH GOOD
MIXING VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD SHOULD SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN AROUND 60 OR A LITTLE BETTER...50S FURTHER NORTH
WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OF RAIN OR EVEN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE MOST EVERYONE ELSE WILL
HAVE NOTHING THAN A BRIEF SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. IT LOOKS TO TURN
CHILLY ONCE MORE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW TUMBLING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 20S ADIRONDACKS
WHERE ONCE AGAIN A FEW SPOTS COULD PICK UP A DUSTING OF
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC AND DEEPENING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE NET
RESULT IS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST PER THE 00Z
GLOBAL MODELS TO REMAIN IN PLACE MOST OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  WE
WILL HOLD ONTO SOME CHC POPS NORTH OF ALBANY EARLY ON SUNDAY AS
CYCLONIC FLOW AND MOISTURE LINGERS.  EVEN WITH PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND OR BELOW 0Z WHICH
WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE.

THE PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DEEPENS FURTHER
AND GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.  IT APPEARS WE WILL BE LOOKING FOR A RATHER WET PERIOD OF
WEATHER INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.  WHILE THE THERMAL COLUMN DOES
MODERATE...WITH THE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS AND NEAR NORMAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD ENDING 18Z FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. SOME
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 17-20 KT WITH GUSTS
OF 25-30 KT THROUGH SUNSET. AFTER DARK...WIND SPEEDS WILL SUBSIDE
TO LESS THAN 5 KT BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 600 PM ACROSS
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. IN
EASTERN NEW YORK STATE...THE RED FLAG WARNING INCLUDES ALL BUT THE
ADIRONDACKS. WE DID ADD SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY INTO WARNING.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL GUSTS ANYWHERE FROM 30-45 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...IN CONJUNCTION WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 15-25
PERCENT. ALSO THE COMPUTED HAINES INDEX IS EXPECTED TO BE 5-6 IN
MOST AREAS...WHICH IS HIGH AND CAN HELP SUPPORT FIRE GROWTH.

PER EARLIER COORDINATION WITH OUR LIAISON STATE CONTACT
POINTS...MOST OF OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER BEHAVIOR TODAY. THE ADIRONDACKS WERE LEFT OUT SINCE
PROJECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES THERE TODAY WILL GENERALLY AROUND 50 OR
A LITTLE LESS. ALSO...THERE WAS A LITTLE MORE RAINFALL RECENTLY AS
WELL AS SOME LINGERING EFFECTS OF MELTING SNOW. FOR THIS AREA...WE
WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING ANY THE THREAT OF ANY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.

THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE 30
PERCENT.

FRIDAY...WILL FEATURE MORE CLOUDS THAN TODAY ALTHOUGH IT WILL
ACTUALLY BE MILDER. RH VALUES LOOK TO DIP TO OR A LITTLE BELOW 30
PERCENT ONCE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY AVERAGING
AROUND 10 MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 POSSIBLE. NO FIRE
WEATHER ACTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. IT IS ABOUT A 50/50 CHANCE THAT ANY ONE AREA WILL REACH A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN HAPPENS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AT
THIS POINT WE ARE PROJECTING MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND
A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THIS RAINFALL AMOUNT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR
NO EFFECT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ038>041-
     043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
MA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/LFM








000
FXUS61 KBTV 241705
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
105 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...BRINGING
CLEARING SKIES AND GUSTY WINDS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER
AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON EACH NIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ONLY MINOR
ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 102 PM EDT THURSDAY...FCST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS AFTN WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LOWERING RH VALUES. RED FLAG WARNING STILL
LOOKS GOOD WITH LATEST 1PM OBS AT VSF SHOWING RH DOWN TO 32% AND
WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS. STILL EXPECTING RH VALUES TO DROP BTWN
20 AND 30% THIS AFTN IN THE WARNING AREA. VIS SATL STILL SHOWING
CLOUDS ACRS NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT WITH A BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK.
THESE SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE THIS AFTN...AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
DEVELOPS FROM LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. TEMPS WL WARM ANOTHER 2 TO 4
DEGREES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S MTNS TO M50S WARMER
VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 505 AM EDT THURSDAY...LVL JET QUICKLY EXITS E THIS
EVENING...AS SFC RIDGE SETS UP TO CREST OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN LGT TO CALM
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CHILLY OVERNGT MIN TEMPS. EXPECT
VALLEYS TO SEE FRIDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE M20S...WITH HIR TRRN IN
THE MID TEENS TO L20S.

FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE S AHEAD OF SFC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW
WILL TRACK ENE...INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
FRIDAY MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS
TO EDGE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXACT TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM STILL UNSURE AS
MODELS SUGGEST DOUBLE BARREL SYSTEM TAKING MOST OF ITS ENERGY OFF
THE LONG ISLAND COAST. THIS WOULD AFFECT HOW MUCH QPF THE NORTH
COUNTRY WOULD RECEIVE. EXPECT MOISTURE TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...MAKING FOR A
DREARY FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL BEFORE COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 407 AM EDT THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW A CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY...BUT THE FORECAST AREA WILL STILL
BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW...SO HAVE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. EXPECTING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST VERMONT. A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA AND REMAINS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES FOR THE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FORECAST. THUS...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. ECMWF MODEL HAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT OVER THE REGION WITH A DRY FORECAST INDICATED FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY... AS ECMWF MODEL SUGGESTING THE REGION WILL BE
UNDER AN OMEGA BLOCK WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
ATLANTIC SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...GFS MODEL
SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALSO OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WITH THE OTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW MUCH FURTHER EAST IN THE ATLANTIC
THAN DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF MODEL. GFS MODEL BRINGS MOISTURE
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FOR NOW...WILL USE SUPER
BLEND POPS AND KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST INTO THE
REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
LOOP THROUGH 1130Z THURSDAY SHOWING LOW CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWARD
FROM QUEBEC ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT
THIS TIME...SO EXPECTING A PERIOD OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
TODAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA DEEPENS. THIS
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 20-30
KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH 23Z THURSDAY. AFTER 23Z THURSDAY EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN
10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PASSAGE.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 930 AM EDT THURSDAY...UPDATED FOR RED FLAG WARNING FOR PARTS
OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT ZNS BELOW 1500 FEET AND EASTERN ESSEX
COUNTY NY.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW
1500 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN VT...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE RECENT DRY
SPELL...EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS...AND LOW MIN RH VALUES.

MOST THE CPV AND SOUTHERN VERMONT HAVE SEEN LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST FIVE DAYS...THIS HAS RESULTED IN
SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE FINE FUELS PER LOCAL FOREST CONTACTS
BELOW 1500 FEET...WHERE GREEN UP HAS NOT OCCURRED.
MEANWHILE...ABOVE 1500 FEET MOST OF THE FINE FUELS AND LEAF
LITTER IS COMPRESSED FROM RECENT SNOW PACK OR STILL WET. MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT MTNS AND NORTHERN NY HAVE RECEIVED MEASURABLE
PRECIP OVER THE PAST 2 TO 5 DAYS OR SNOW PACK IS STILL ON THE
GROUND ABOVE 2000 FEET...RESULTING IN LIMITED THREAT.

BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35
MPH ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN...PARTS OF THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THIS AFTN. ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE PSBL ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MTNS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AND STRONGER LOW LVL JET NEAR
SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT.

IN ADDITION...MIN AFTN RH VALUES WL DROP BTWN 15% AND 25% BTWN 1
PM AND 5PM ACRS NRN NY...THE CPV AND SOUTHERN VT.

THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL DRYING OF
GRASSES...TWIGS...AND DEBRIS SUCH AS DEAD LEAVES FROM LAST FALL
WILL ALLOW ANY FIRES THAT DO OCCUR TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN
INTENSELY...AND BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN. PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
ANY OUTDOOR BURNING YOU MAY BE ATTEMPTING TODAY. MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS...DO NOT LEAVE YOUR BRUSH OR DEBRIS PILE
UNATTENDED...AND HEED ANY ADVICE FROM YOUR LOCAL FIRE WARDEN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ009>012.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF
FIRE WEATHER...TABER/KGM









000
FXUS61 KALY 241644
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1244 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST IN THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. IT
WILL BE A BRISK DAY BUT WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT LEAVING US WITH A COLD NIGHT FOR LATE APRIL. FRIDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 EDT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE WINDY THOUGH DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE GULF
OF MAINE...AND THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WINDS ARE
BEGINNING TO PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH MANY ASOS AND OTHER
OBSERVATION SITES ALREADY SEEING WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 TO 40 MPH.
SUNSHINE WILL ATTEMPT TO HEAT UP THE SURFACE TODAY. WITH STILL
PLENTY OF COLD AIR ALOFT...THIS HEATING WILL PRODUCE EXCELLENT
MIXING WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT...PRODUCING PRETTY IMPRESSIVE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS. THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE
TO 15 TO 25 MPH...BUT WILL GUST OVER 35 MPH EVERYWHERE...PERHAPS
UP TO 45 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN/35-40 MPH ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

THE COMBINATION OF THESE GUSTY WINDS...VERY LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES
AND THE LACK OF A GOOD WETTING RAIN IN DAYS...HAS PROMPTED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA. FOR MORE ON
THESE...PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST DISCUSSION FOUND
LATER IN THE AFD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP BETWEEN 55 TO 60 IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER
40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY RELAX AS LOW PRESSURE
FINALLY MOVES FURTHER EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS A LITTLE AS IT
CREST OVER THE REGION. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A RAPID DIMINISHING OF
THE WIND THIS EVENING. THE SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR...WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS WILL OFFER BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS DESPITE SOME WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DIP TO AROUND 30 FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTHWARD...LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A MUCH MORE TRANQUIL DAY. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASES...IT NOW APPEARS FROM THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
COLLECTION THAT ANY RAIN FROM THE NEXT DISTURBANCE...SHOULD STAY
MAINLY WEST OF OUR REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT
SNEAK INTO AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. THE
COMBINATION OF SOME SUNSHINE...A BREEZE TURNING SOUTHERLY AND
PICKING UP TO AROUND 10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON...GOOD MIXING AND
WARM ADVECTION...WILL GIVE TEMPERATURES A BUMP UPWARD. LOOK FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS MOST AREAS...CLOSER TO 60 EVEN
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE...AN OCCLUDED FRONT
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION AND BRING SHOWERS.
ALL MODELS SUGGEST THE OLD PRIMARY LOW THAT WILL RIDE BY TO OUR
NORTH WILL WEAKEN WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
THIS SECONDARY LOW MIGHT ACTUALLY BRING A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BUT THIS SCENARIO IS NOT ETCHED IN
STONE YET. FOR NOW WE WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

IT MIGHT JUST COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE RAIN TO MIX
WITH OR MAYBE EVEN CHANGE TO WET SNOW OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT LOOKS LIGHT TO NIL.

THE SECONDARY LOW WILL PULL AWAY ON SATURDAY. A DRY SLOT SHOULD
BRING A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE TO SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE STORM WILL WORK
ACROSS THE REGION FROM ALBANY NORTH BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE WILL
CARRY THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHERN
WHILE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD. IN FACT...OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS MIGHT SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE.

THE AIR ALOFT WILL BE COOLING SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH GOOD
MIXING VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD SHOULD SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN AROUND 60 OR A LITTLE BETTER...50S FURTHER NORTH
WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OF RAIN OR EVEN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE MOST EVERYONE ELSE WILL
HAVE NOTHING THAN A BRIEF SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. IT LOOKS TO TURN
CHILLY ONCE MORE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW TUMBLING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 20S ADIRONDACKS
WHERE ONCE AGAIN A FEW SPOTS COULD PICK UP A DUSTING OF
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC AND DEEPENING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE NET
RESULT IS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST PER THE 00Z
GLOBAL MODELS TO REMAIN IN PLACE MOST OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  WE
WILL HOLD ONTO SOME CHC POPS NORTH OF ALBANY EARLY ON SUNDAY AS
CYCLONIC FLOW AND MOISTURE LINGERS.  EVEN WITH PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND OR BELOW 0Z WHICH
WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE.

THE PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DEEPENS FURTHER
AND GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.  IT APPEARS WE WILL BE LOOKING FOR A RATHER WET PERIOD OF
WEATHER INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.  WHILE THE THERMAL COLUMN DOES
MODERATE...WITH THE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS AND NEAR NORMAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...HOWEVER...CANOPY OF
HIGHER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. EITHER WAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL THE TAF SITES WILL INCREASE QUICKLY THIS
MORNING TO 14 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS COMMON.  THOSE
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 600 PM ACROSS
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. IN
EASTERN NEW YORK STATE...THE RED FLAG WARNING INCLUDES ALL BUT THE
ADIRONDACKS. WE DID ADD SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY INTO WARNING.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL GUSTS ANYWHERE FROM 30-45 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...IN CONJUNCTION WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 15-25
PERCENT. ALSO THE COMPUTED HAINES INDEX IS EXPECTED TO BE 5-6 IN
MOST AREAS...WHICH IS HIGH AND CAN HELP SUPPORT FIRE GROWTH.

PER EARLIER COORDINATION WITH OUR LIAISON STATE CONTACT
POINTS...MOST OF OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER BEHAVIOR TODAY. THE ADIRONDACKS WERE LEFT OUT SINCE
PROJECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES THERE TODAY WILL GENERALLY AROUND 50 OR
A LITTLE LESS. ALSO...THERE WAS A LITTLE MORE RAINFALL RECENTLY AS
WELL AS SOME LINGERING EFFECTS OF MELTING SNOW. FOR THIS AREA...WE
WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING ANY THE THREAT OF ANY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.

THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE 30
PERCENT.

FRIDAY...WILL FEATURE MORE CLOUDS THAN TODAY ALTHOUGH IT WILL
ACTUALLY BE MILDER. RH VALUES LOOK TO DIP TO OR A LITTLE BELOW 30
PERCENT ONCE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY AVERAGING
AROUND 10 MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 POSSIBLE. NO FIRE
WEATHER ACTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. IT IS ABOUT A 50/50 CHANCE THAT ANY ONE AREA WILL REACH A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN HAPPENS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AT
THIS POINT WE ARE PROJECTING MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND
A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THIS RAINFALL AMOUNT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR
NO EFFECT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ038>041-
     043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
MA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/LFM








000
FXUS61 KALY 241445
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1045 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST IN THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. IT
WILL BE A BRISK DAY BUT WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT LEAVING US WITH A COLD NIGHT FOR LATE APRIL. FRIDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. IT WILL BE WINDY THOUGH DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE GULF OF
MAINE...AND THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

SUNSHINE WILL ATTEMPT TO HEAT UP THE SURFACE TODAY. WITH STILL
PLENTY OF COLD AIR ALOFT...THIS HEATING WILL PRODUCE EXCELLENT
MIXING WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT...PRODUCING PRETTY IMPRESSIVE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS. THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE
TO 15 TO 25 MPH...BUT WILL GUST OVER 35 MPH EVERYWHERE...PERHAPS
UP TO 45 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN/35-40 MPH ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

THE COMBINATION OF THESE GUSTY WINDS...VERY LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES
AND THE LACK OF A GOOD WETTING RAIN IN DAYS...HAS PROMPTED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA. FOR MORE ON
THESE...PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST DISCUSSION FOUND
LATER IN THE AFD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP BETWEEN 55 TO 60 IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER
40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY RELAX AS LOW PRESSURE
FINALLY MOVES FURTHER EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS A LITTLE AS IT
CREST OVER THE REGION. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A RAPID DIMINISHING OF
THE WIND THIS EVENING. THE SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR...WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS WILL OFFER BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS DESPITE SOME WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DIP TO AROUND 30 FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTHWARD...LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A MUCH MORE TRANQUIL DAY. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASES...IT NOW APPEARS FROM THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
COLLECTION THAT ANY RAIN FROM THE NEXT DISTURBANCE...SHOULD STAY
MAINLY WEST OF OUR REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT
SNEAK INTO AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. THE
COMBINATION OF SOME SUNSHINE...A BREEZE TURNING SOUTHERLY AND
PICKING UP TO AROUND 10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON...GOOD MIXING AND
WARM ADVECTION...WILL GIVE TEMPERATURES A BUMP UPWARD. LOOK FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS MOST AREAS...CLOSER TO 60 EVEN
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE...AN OCCLUDED FRONT
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION AND BRING SHOWERS.
ALL MODELS SUGGEST THE OLD PRIMARY LOW THAT WILL RIDE BY TO OUR
NORTH WILL WEAKEN WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
THIS SECONDARY LOW MIGHT ACTUALLY BRING A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BUT THIS SCENARIO IS NOT ETCHED IN
STONE YET. FOR NOW WE WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

IT MIGHT JUST COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE RAIN TO MIX
WITH OR MAYBE EVEN CHANGE TO WET SNOW OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT LOOKS LIGHT TO NIL.

THE SECONDARY LOW WILL PULL AWAY ON SATURDAY. A DRY SLOT SHOULD
BRING A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE TO SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE STORM WILL WORK
ACROSS THE REGION FROM ALBANY NORTH BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE WILL
CARRY THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHERN
WHILE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD. IN FACT...OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS MIGHT SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE.

THE AIR ALOFT WILL BE COOLING SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH GOOD
MIXING VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD SHOULD SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN AROUND 60 OR A LITTLE BETTER...50S FURTHER NORTH
WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OF RAIN OR EVEN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE MOST EVERYONE ELSE WILL
HAVE NOTHING THAN A BRIEF SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. IT LOOKS TO TURN
CHILLY ONCE MORE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW TUMBLING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 20S ADIRONDACKS
WHERE ONCE AGAIN A FEW SPOTS COULD PICK UP A DUSTING OF
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC AND DEEPENING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE NET
RESULT IS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST PER THE 00Z
GLOBAL MODELS TO REMAIN IN PLACE MOST OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  WE
WILL HOLD ONTO SOME CHC POPS NORTH OF ALBANY EARLY ON SUNDAY AS
CYCLONIC FLOW AND MOISTURE LINGERS.  EVEN WITH PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND OR BELOW 0Z WHICH
WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE.

THE PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DEEPENS FURTHER
AND GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.  IT APPEARS WE WILL BE LOOKING FOR A RATHER WET PERIOD OF
WEATHER INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.  WHILE THE THERMAL COLUMN DOES
MODERATE...WITH THE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS AND NEAR NORMAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...HOWEVER...CANOPY OF
HIGHER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. EITHER WAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL THE TAF SITES WILL INCREASE QUICKLY THIS
MORNING TO 14 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS COMMON.  THOSE
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 600 PM ACROSS
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. IN
EASTERN NEW YORK STATE...THE RED FLAG WARNING INCLUDES ALL BUT THE
ADIRONDACKS. WE DID ADD SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY INTO WARNING.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL GUSTS ANYWHERE FROM 30-45 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...IN CONJUNCTION WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 15-25
PERCENT. ALSO THE COMPUTED HAINES INDEX IS EXPECTED TO BE 5-6 IN
MOST AREAS...WHICH IS HIGH AND CAN HELP SUPPORT FIRE GROWTH.

PER EARLIER COORDINATION WITH OUR LIAISON STATE CONTACT
POINTS...MOST OF OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER BEHAVIOR TODAY. THE ADIRONDACKS WERE LEFT OUT SINCE
PROJECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES THERE TODAY WILL GENERALLY AROUND 50 OR
A LITTLE LESS. ALSO...THERE WAS A LITTLE MORE RAINFALL RECENTLY AS
WELL AS SOME LINGERING EFFECTS OF MELTING SNOW. FOR THIS AREA...WE
WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING ANY THE THREAT OF ANY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.

THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE 30
PERCENT.

FRIDAY...WILL FEATURE MORE CLOUDS THAN TODAY ALTHOUGH IT WILL
ACTUALLY BE MILDER. RH VALUES LOOK TO DIP TO OR A LITTLE BELOW 30
PERCENT ONCE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY AVERAGING
AROUND 10 MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 POSSIBLE. NO FIRE
WEATHER ACTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. IT IS ABOUT A 50/50 CHANCE THAT ANY ONE AREA WILL REACH A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN HAPPENS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AT
THIS POINT WE ARE PROJECTING MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND
A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THIS RAINFALL AMOUNT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR
NO EFFECT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ038>041-
     043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
MA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/LFM








000
FXUS61 KBTV 241333
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
933 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...BRINGING
CLEARING SKIES AND GUSTY WINDS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER
AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON EACH NIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ONLY MINOR
ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 925 AM EDT THURSDAY...UPDATED FCST TO HOIST RED FLAG WARNING
FOR EASTERN ESSEX COUNTY NY AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT BELOW
1500 FEET. LATEST OBSERVATION SHOW DRIER AIR IS QUICKLY WORKING
TWD THE SFC WITH DWPTS ALREADY IN THE TEENS WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THINKING THESE WINDS
WL HELP TRANSFER EVEN DRIER AIR DOWN TO THE SURFACE THIS AFTN WITH
MIN RH VALUES BTWN 15 AND 25% ACRS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THESE
EXPECTED CONDITIONS...COMBINED WITH RECENT DRY SPELL IS REASON TO
HIGHLIGHT FIRE WX CONCERNS TODAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS AND LOWEST
RH`S WL OCCUR BTWN 1PM AND 6 PM TODAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING LOW
CLOUDS TO QUICKLY BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND BRISK WINDS. TEMPS WL WARM INTO THE M/U 40S MTNS TO L/M 50S
WARMER VALLEYS. REST OF FCST IN GREAT SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NW WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 5-15KTS WITH GUSTS IN SO
LOCATIONS OF 20-25KTS THIS MORNING. CLOUDS SLOW TO ERODE FROM NRN
VT. THIS MAY HELP TO KEEP RH VALUES FROM FALLING AS MUCH...BUT
AREAS EXPECTING LOWEST RH ALREADY CLEAR ACROSS SRN HALF OF CPV AND
SRN VT. WITH GUSTS ALREADY 20-25KTS THIS MORNING...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED GUST IN EXCESS OF 45MPH THIS AFTN IN
SERN VT. OVERALL FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY AS SFC LOW HEADS FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. LLVL JET
OF 35-50KTS AT 850MB WILL AFFECT ERN VT...PRODUCING NW WINDS OF
15-25KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40KTS...CENTERED ALONG THE ERN SLOPES
OF THE GREEN MTNS INTO THE CT VALLEY. DOWNSLOPING MAY SEE
ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WITH MIXING TO AROUND 5KFT SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

IN ADDITION TO WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY...NW FLOW WILL ALSO BRING
DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH RH VALUES FALLING INTO
THE M20 TO M30 PERCENT RANGE. SEE FIRE WX SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. THREAT OF DRY AIR AND STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE CENTERED
AROUND 18Z- 22Z.

OTHERWISE...UPPER LVL TROUGH WHICH HELPED TO PRODUCE OVC SKIES
YESTERDAY HAS FOR THE MOST PART MOVE EAST...WITH ONLY NEK STILL
SEEING CLOUDY SKIES WHICH WILL GRADUALLY ERODE EWD TODAY. NW FLOW
WILL KEEP SLGTLY COOL INFLUX OF AIR SO MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 505 AM EDT THURSDAY...LVL JET QUICKLY EXITS E THIS
EVENING...AS SFC RIDGE SETS UP TO CREST OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN LGT TO CALM
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CHILLY OVERNGT MIN TEMPS. EXPECT
VALLEYS TO SEE FRIDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE M20S...WITH HIR TRRN IN
THE MID TEENS TO L20S.

FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE S AHEAD OF SFC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW
WILL TRACK ENE...INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
FRIDAY MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS
TO EDGE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXACT TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM STILL UNSURE AS
MODELS SUGGEST DOUBLE BARREL SYSTEM TAKING MOST OF ITS ENERGY OFF
THE LONG ISLAND COAST. THIS WOULD AFFECT HOW MUCH QPF THE NORTH
COUNTRY WOULD RECEIVE. EXPECT MOISTURE TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...MAKING FOR A
DREARY FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL BEFORE COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 407 AM EDT THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW A CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY...BUT THE FORECAST AREA WILL STILL
BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW...SO HAVE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. EXPECTING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST VERMONT. A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA AND REMAINS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES FOR THE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FORECAST. THUS...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. ECMWF MODEL HAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT OVER THE REGION WITH A DRY FORECAST INDICATED FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY... AS ECMWF MODEL SUGGESTING THE REGION WILL BE
UNDER AN OMEGA BLOCK WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
ATLANTIC SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...GFS MODEL
SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALSO OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WITH THE OTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW MUCH FURTHER EAST IN THE ATLANTIC
THAN DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF MODEL. GFS MODEL BRINGS MOISTURE
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FOR NOW...WILL USE SUPER
BLEND POPS AND KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST INTO THE
REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
LOOP THROUGH 1130Z THURSDAY SHOWING LOW CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWARD
FROM QUEBEC ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT
THIS TIME...SO EXPECTING A PERIOD OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
TODAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA DEEPENS. THIS
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 20-30
KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH 23Z THURSDAY. AFTER 23Z THURSDAY EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN
10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PASSAGE.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 930 AM EDT THURSDAY...UPDATED FOR RED FLAG WARNING FOR PARTS
OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT ZNS BELOW 1500 FEET AND EASTERN ESSEX
COUNTY NY.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW
1500 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN VT...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE RECENT DRY
SPELL...EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS...AND LOW MIN RH VALUES.

MOST THE CPV AND SOUTHERN VERMONT HAVE SEEN LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST FIVE DAYS...THIS HAS RESULTED IN
SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE FINE FUELS PER LOCAL FOREST CONTACTS
BELOW 1500 FEET...WHERE GREEN UP HAS NOT OCCURRED.
MEANWHILE...ABOVE 1500 FEET MOST OF THE FINE FUELS AND LEAF
LITTER IS COMPRESSED FROM RECENT SNOW PACK OR STILL WET. MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT MTNS AND NORTHERN NY HAVE RECEIVED MEASURABLE
PRECIP OVER THE PAST 2 TO 5 DAYS OR SNOW PACK IS STILL ON THE
GROUND ABOVE 2000 FEET...RESULTING IN LIMITED THREAT.

BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35
MPH ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN...PARTS OF THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THIS AFTN. ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE PSBL ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MTNS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AND STRONGER LOW LVL JET NEAR
SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT.

IN ADDITION...MIN AFTN RH VALUES WL DROP BTWN 15% AND 25% BTWN 1
PM AND 5PM ACRS NRN NY...THE CPV AND SOUTHERN VT.

THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL DRYING OF
GRASSES...TWIGS...AND DEBRIS SUCH AS DEAD LEAVES FROM LAST FALL
WILL ALLOW ANY FIRES THAT DO OCCUR TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN
INTENSELY...AND BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN. PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
ANY OUTDOOR BURNING YOU MAY BE ATTEMPTING TODAY. MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS...DO NOT LEAVE YOUR BRUSH OR DEBRIS PILE
UNATTENDED...AND HEED ANY ADVICE FROM YOUR LOCAL FIRE WARDEN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ009>012.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF
FIRE WEATHER...TABER/KGM










000
FXUS61 KBTV 241143
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
743 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...BRINGING
CLEARING SKIES AND GUSTY WINDS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER
AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON EACH NIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ONLY MINOR
ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 626 AM EDT THURSDAY...NW WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 5-15KTS WITH
GUSTS IN SO LOCATIONS OF 20-25KTS THIS MORNING. CLOUDS SLOW TO
ERODE FROM NRN VT. THIS MAY HELP TO KEEP RH VALUES FROM FALLING
AS MUCH...BUT AREAS EXPECTING LOWEST RH ALREADY CLEAR ACROSS SRN
HALF OF CPV AND SRN VT. WITH GUSTS ALREADY 20-25KTS THIS
MORNING...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED GUST IN
EXCESS OF 45MPH THIS AFTN IN SERN VT. OVERALL FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY AS SFC LOW HEADS FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. LLVL JET
OF 35-50KTS AT 850MB WILL AFFECT ERN VT...PRODUCING NW WINDS OF
15-25KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40KTS...CENTERED ALONG THE ERN SLOPES
OF THE GREEN MTNS INTO THE CT VALLEY. DOWNSLOPING MAY SEE
ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WITH MIXING TO AROUND 5KFT SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

IN ADDITION TO WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY...NW FLOW WILL ALSO BRING
DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH RH VALUES FALLING INTO
THE M20 TO M30 PERCENT RANGE. SEE FIRE WX SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. THREAT OF DRY AIR AND STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE CENTERED
AROUND 18Z- 22Z.

OTHERWISE...UPPER LVL TROUGH WHICH HELPED TO PRODUCE OVC SKIES
YESTERDAY HAS FOR THE MOST PART MOVE EAST...WITH ONLY NEK STILL
SEEING CLOUDY SKIES WHICH WILL GRADUALLY ERODE EWD TODAY. NW FLOW
WILL KEEP SLGTLY COOL INFLUX OF AIR SO MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 505 AM EDT THURSDAY...LVL JET QUICKLY EXITS E THIS
EVENING...AS SFC RIDGE SETS UP TO CREST OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN LGT TO CALM
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CHILLY OVERNGT MIN TEMPS. EXPECT
VALLEYS TO SEE FRIDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE M20S...WITH HIR TRRN IN
THE MID TEENS TO L20S.

FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE S AHEAD OF SFC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW
WILL TRACK ENE...INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
FRIDAY MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS
TO EDGE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXACT TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM STILL UNSURE AS
MODELS SUGGEST DOUBLE BARREL SYSTEM TAKING MOST OF ITS ENERGY OFF
THE LONG ISLAND COAST. THIS WOULD AFFECT HOW MUCH QPF THE NORTH
COUNTRY WOULD RECEIVE. EXPECT MOISTURE TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...MAKING FOR A
DREARY FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL BEFORE COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 407 AM EDT THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW A CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY...BUT THE FORECAST AREA WILL STILL
BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW...SO HAVE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. EXPECTING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST VERMONT. A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA AND REMAINS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES FOR THE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FORECAST. THUS...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. ECMWF MODEL HAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT OVER THE REGION WITH A DRY FORECAST INDICATED FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY... AS ECMWF MODEL SUGGESTING THE REGION WILL BE
UNDER AN OMEGA BLOCK WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
ATLANTIC SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...GFS MODEL
SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALSO OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WITH THE OTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW MUCH FURTHER EAST IN THE ATLANTIC
THAN DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF MODEL. GFS MODEL BRINGS MOISTURE
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FOR NOW...WILL USE SUPER
BLEND POPS AND KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST INTO THE
REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
LOOP THROUGH 1130Z THURSDAY SHOWING LOW CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWARD
FROM QUEBEC ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT
THIS TIME...SO EXPECTING A PERIOD OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
TODAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA DEEPENS. THIS
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 20-30
KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH 23Z THURSDAY. AFTER 23Z THURSDAY EXPECTING
CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN
10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PASSAGE.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 505 AM EDT THURSDAY...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 1500 FEET ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
THE RECENT DRY SPELL...EXPECTED BREEZY WINDS...AND LOW MIN RH
VALUES.

MOST THE CPV AND SOUTHERN VERMONT HAVE SEEN LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST FIVE DAYS...THIS HAS RESULTED IN
SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE FINE FUELS PER LOCAL FOREST CONTACTS
BELOW 1500 FEET...WHERE GREEN UP HAS NOT OCCURRED.
MEANWHILE...ABOVE 1500 FEET MOST OF THE FINE FUELS AND LEAF
LITTER IS COMPRESSED FROM RECENT SNOW PACK OR STILL WET. MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT MTNS AND NORTHERN NY HAVE RECEIVED MEASURABLE
PRECIP OVER THE PAST 2 TO 5 DAYS OR SNOW PACK IS STILL ON THE
GROUND ABOVE 2000 FEET...RESULTING IN LIMITED THREAT.

BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35
MPH ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN...PARTS OF THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THIS AFTN. ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE PSBL ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MTNS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AND STRONGER LOW LVL JET NEAR
SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT.

IN ADDITION...MIN AFTN RH VALUES WL DROP BTWN 25% AND 35% BTWN 1
PM AND 5PM ACRS NRN NY...THE CPV AND SOUTHERN VT...WITH ISOLATED
READINGS OF 20% NEAR SPRINGFIELD VT POSSIBLE.

THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL DRYING OF
GRASSES...TWIGS...AND DEBRIS SUCH AS DEAD LEAVES FROM LAST FALL
WILL ALLOW ANY FIRES THAT DO OCCUR TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN
INTENSELY...AND BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN. PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
ANY OUTDOOR BURNING YOU MAY BE ATTEMPTING TODAY. MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS...DO NOT LEAVE YOUR BRUSH OR DEBRIS PILE
UNATTENDED...AND HEED ANY ADVICE FROM YOUR LOCAL FIRE WARDEN.

WILL CONTINUE T0 HIGHLIGHT THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT IN HWO...AS WELL AS A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/TABER
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF
FIRE WEATHER...TABER/KGM








000
FXUS61 KALY 241141
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
741 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST IN THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH MUCH
OF TODAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A BRISK DAY BUT WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. THE WIND
WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT LEAVING US WITH A COLD NIGHT FOR LATE APRIL.
FRIDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN ARRIVES TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS.

AS OF 620 AM EDT...A CLEAR BUT BRISK DAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE WIND
AT GLENS FALLS WAS ALREADY GUSTING TO 30 MPH!  OTHER AREAS GENERALLY
SEEING WIND GUSTING IN THE 20S. SO IT WILL BE A WINDY DAY.

THE WIND HAS PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH...AS THEY
GENERALLY BOTTOMED OUT IN THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION (EXCEPT MID TO
UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS).

THE WIND WAS THE RESULT OF A STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A
SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE...AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BE WITH US MOST IF NOT ALL OF TODAY.

SUNSHINE WILL ATTEMPT TO HEAT UP THE SURFACE TODAY. HOWEVER...WITH
STILL PLENTY OF COLD AIR ALOFT...THIS HEATING WILL PRODUCE EXCELLENT
MIXING WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT...PRODUCING PRETTY IMPRESSIVE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON GUSTS. THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE TO 10
TO 20 MPH...BUT WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH EVERYWHERE...PERHAPS UP TO 45
MPH ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN/35-40 MPH ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY
AND GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

THE COMBINATION OF THESE GUSTY WINDS...VERY LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES
AND THE LACK OF A GOOD WETTING RAIN IN DAYS...HAS PROMPTED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA. FOR MORE ON
THESE...PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST DISCUSSION FOUND
LATER IN THE AFD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP BETWEEN 55 TO 60 IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER
40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY RELAX AS LOW PRESSURE
FINALLY MOVES FURTHER EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS A LITTLE AS IT
CREST OVER THE REGION. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A RAPID DIMINISHING OF
THE WIND THIS EVENING. THE SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR...WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS WILL OFFER BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS DESPITE SOME WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DIP TO AROUND 30 FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTHWARD...LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A MUCH MORE TRANQUIL DAY. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASES...IT NOW APPEARS FROM THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
COLLECTION THAT ANY RAIN FROM THE NEXT DISTURBANCE...SHOULD STAY
MAINLY WEST OF OUR REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT
SNEAK INTO AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. THE
COMBINATION OF SOME SUNSHINE...A BREEZE TURNING SOUTHERLY AND
PICKING UP TO AROUND 10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON...GOOD MIXING AND
WARM ADVECTION...WILL GIVE TEMPERATURES A BUMP UPWARD. LOOK FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS MOST AREAS...CLOSER TO 60 EVEN
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE...AN OCCLUDED FRONT
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION AND BRING SHOWERS.
ALL MODELS SUGGEST THE OLD PRIMARY LOW THAT WILL RIDE BY TO OUR
NORTH WILL WEAKEN WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
THIS SECONDARY LOW MIGHT ACTUALLY BRING A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BUT THIS SCENARIO IS NOT ETCHED IN
STONE YET. FOR NOW WE WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

IT MIGHT JUST COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE RAIN TO MIX
WITH OR MAYBE EVEN CHANGE TO WET SNOW OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT LOOKS LIGHT TO NIL.

THE SECONDARY LOW WILL PULL AWAY ON SATURDAY. A DRY SLOT SHOULD
BRING A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE TO SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE STORM WILL WORK
ACROSS THE REGION FROM ALBANY NORTH BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE WILL
CARRY THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHERN
WHILE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD. IN FACT...OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS MIGHT SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE.

THE AIR ALOFT WILL BE COOLING SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH GOOD
MIXING VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD SHOULD SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN AROUND 60 OR A LITTLE BETTER...50S FURTHER NORTH
WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OF RAIN OR EVEN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE MOST EVERYONE ELSE WILL
HAVE NOTHING THAN A BRIEF SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. IT LOOKS TO TURN
CHILLY ONCE MORE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW TUMBLING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 20S ADIRONDACKS
WHERE ONCE AGAIN A FEW SPOTS COULD PICK UP A DUSTING OF
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC AND DEEPENING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE NET
RESULT IS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST PER THE 00Z
GLOBAL MODELS TO REMAIN IN PLACE MOST OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  WE
WILL HOLD ONTO SOME CHC POPS NORTH OF ALBANY EARLY ON SUNDAY AS
CYCLONIC FLOW AND MOISTURE LINGERS.  EVEN WITH PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND OR BELOW 0Z WHICH
WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE.

THE PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DEEPENS FURTHER
AND GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.  IT APPEARS WE WILL BE LOOKING FOR A RATHER WET PERIOD OF
WEATHER INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.  WHILE THE THERMAL COLUMN DOES
MODERATE...WITH THE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS AND NEAR NORMAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...HOWEVER...CANOPY OF
HIGHER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. EITHER WAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL THE TAF SITES WILL INCREASE QUICKLY THIS
MORNING TO 14 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS COMMON.  THOSE
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 600 PM ACROSS
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. IN
EASTERN NEW YORK STATE...THE RED FLAG WARNING INCLUDES ALL BUT THE
ADIRONDACKS. WE DID ADD SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY INTO WARNING.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL GUSTS ANYWHERE FROM 30-45 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...IN CONJUNCTION WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 15-25
PERCENT. ALSO THE COMPUTED HAINES INDEX IS EXPECTED TO BE 5-6 IN
MOST AREAS...WHICH IS HIGH AND CAN HELP SUPPORT FIRE GROWTH.

PER EARLIER COORDINATION WITH OUR LIAISON STATE CONTACT
POINTS...MOST OF OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER BEHAVIOR TODAY. THE ADIRONDACKS WERE LEFT OUT SINCE
PROJECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES THERE TODAY WILL GENERALLY AROUND 50 OR
A LITTLE LESS. ALSO...THERE WAS A LITTLE MORE RAINFALL RECENTLY AS
WELL AS SOME LINGERING EFFECTS OF MELTING SNOW. FOR THIS AREA...WE
WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING ANY THE THREAT OF ANY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.

THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE 30
PERCENT.

FRIDAY...WILL FEATURE MORE CLOUDS THAN TODAY ALTHOUGH IT WILL
ACTUALLY BE MILDER. RH VALUES LOOK TO DIP TO OR A LITTLE BELOW 30
PERCENT ONCE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY AVERAGING
AROUND 10 MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 POSSIBLE. NO FIRE
WEATHER ACTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. IT IS ABOUT A 50/50 CHANCE THAT ANY ONE AREA WILL REACH A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN HAPPENS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AT
THIS POINT WE ARE PROJECTING MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND
A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THIS RAINFALL AMOUNT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR
NO EFFECT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ038>041-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
MA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/LFM








000
FXUS61 KALY 241028
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST IN THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH MUCH
OF TODAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A BRISK DAY BUT WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. THE WIND
WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT LEAVING US WITH A COLD NIGHT FOR LATE APRIL.
FRIDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN ARRIVES TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS.

AS OF 620 AM EDT...A CLEAR BUT BRISK DAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE WIND
AT GLENS FALLS WAS ALREADY GUSTING TO 30 MPH!  OTHER AREAS GENERALLY
SEEING WIND GUSTING IN THE 20S. SO IT WILL BE A WINDY DAY.

THE WIND HAS PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH...AS THEY
GENERALLY BOTTOMED OUT IN THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION (EXCEPT MID TO
UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS).

THE WIND WAS THE RESULT OF A STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A
SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE...AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BE WITH US MOST IF NOT ALL OF TODAY.

SUNSHINE WILL ATTEMPT TO HEAT UP THE SURFACE TODAY. HOWEVER...WITH
STILL PLENTY OF COLD AIR ALOFT...THIS HEATING WILL PRODUCE EXCELLENT
MIXING WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT...PRODUCING PRETTY IMPRESSIVE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON GUSTS. THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE TO 10
TO 20 MPH...BUT WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH EVERYWHERE...PERHAPS UP TO 45
MPH ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN/35-40 MPH ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY
AND GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

THE COMBINATION OF THESE GUSTY WINDS...VERY LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES
AND THE LACK OF A GOOD WETTING RAIN IN DAYS...HAS PROMPTED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA. FOR MORE ON
THESE...PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST DISCUSSION FOUND
LATER IN THE AFD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP BETWEEN 55 TO 60 IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER
40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY RELAX AS LOW PRESSURE
FINALLY MOVES FURTHER EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS A LITTLE AS IT
CREST OVER THE REGION. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A RAPID DIMINISHING OF
THE WIND THIS EVENING. THE SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR...WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS WILL OFFER BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS DESPITE SOME WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DIP TO AROUND 30 FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTHWARD...LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A MUCH MORE TRANQUIL DAY. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASES...IT NOW APPEARS FROM THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
COLLECTION THAT ANY RAIN FROM THE NEXT DISTURBANCE...SHOULD STAY
MAINLY WEST OF OUR REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT
SNEAK INTO AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. THE
COMBINATION OF SOME SUNSHINE...A BREEZE TURNING SOUTHERLY AND
PICKING UP TO AROUND 10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON...GOOD MIXING AND
WARM ADVECTION...WILL GIVE TEMPERATURES A BUMP UPWARD. LOOK FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS MOST AREAS...CLOSER TO 60 EVEN
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE...AN OCCLUDED FRONT
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION AND BRING SHOWERS.
ALL MODELS SUGGEST THE OLD PRIMARY LOW THAT WILL RIDE BY TO OUR
NORTH WILL WEAKEN WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
THIS SECONDARY LOW MIGHT ACTUALLY BRING A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BUT THIS SCENARIO IS NOT ETCHED IN
STONE YET. FOR NOW WE WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

IT MIGHT JUST COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE RAIN TO MIX
WITH OR MAYBE EVEN CHANGE TO WET SNOW OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT LOOKS LIGHT TO NIL.

THE SECONDARY LOW WILL PULL AWAY ON SATURDAY. A DRY SLOT SHOULD
BRING A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE TO SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE STORM WILL WORK
ACROSS THE REGION FROM ALBANY NORTH BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE WILL
CARRY THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHERN
WHILE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD. IN FACT...OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS MIGHT SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE.

THE AIR ALOFT WILL BE COOLING SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH GOOD
MIXING VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD SHOULD SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN AROUND 60 OR A LITTLE BETTER...50S FURTHER NORTH
WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OF RAIN OR EVEN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE MOST EVERYONE ELSE WILL
HAVE NOTHING THAN A BRIEF SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. IT LOOKS TO TURN
CHILLY ONCE MORE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW TUMBLING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 20S ADIRONDACKS
WHERE ONCE AGAIN A FEW SPOTS COULD PICK UP A DUSTING OF
SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC AND DEEPENING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE NET
RESULT IS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST PER THE 00Z
GLOBAL MODELS TO REMAIN IN PLACE MOST OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  WE
WILL HOLD ONTO SOME CHC POPS NORTH OF ALBANY EARLY ON SUNDAY AS
CYCLONIC FLOW AND MOISTURE LINGERS.  EVEN WITH PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND OR BELOW 0Z WHICH
WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE.

THE PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DEEPENS FURTHER
AND GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.  IT APPEARS WE WILL BE LOOKING FOR A RATHER WET PERIOD OF
WEATHER INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.  WHILE THE THERMAL COLUMN DOES
MODERATE...WITH THE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS AND NEAR NORMAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE DIMINISHING LEAVING BEHIND A CLEAR SKY.  THESE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST CYCLE ENDING
06Z/FRI.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN STEADY BETWEEN 5 KT
AND 15 KT..WITH SOME INTERMITTENT GUSTS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN WITH DAYLIGHT THURSDAY TO 14 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 600 PM ACROSS
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. IN
EASTERN NEW YORK STATE...THE RED FLAG WARNING INCLUDES ALL BUT THE
ADIRONDACKS. WE DID ADD SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY INTO WARNING.

     WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL GUSTS ANYWHERE FROM 30-45 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...IN CONJUNCTION WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 15-25
PERCENT. ALSO THE COMPUTED HAINES INDEX IS EXPECTED TO BE 5-6 IN
MOST AREAS...WHICH IS HIGH TO VERY HIGH AND CAN HELP SUPPORT FIRE
GROWTH.

PER EARLIER COORDINATION WITH OUR LIAISON STATE CONTACT
POINTS...MOST OF OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER BEHAVIOR TODAY. THE ADIRONDACKS WERE LEFT OUT SINCE
PROJECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES THERE TODAY WILL GENERALLY AROUND 50 OR
A LITTLE LESS. ALSO...THERE WAS A LITTLE MORE RAINFALL RECENTLY AS
WELL AS SOME LINGERING EFFECTS OF MELTING SNOW. FOR THIS AREA...WE
WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING ANY THE THREAT OF ANY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.

THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE 30
PERCENT.

FRIDAY...WILL FEATURE MORE CLOUDS THAN TODAY ALTHOUGH IT WILL
ACTUALLY BE MILDER. RH VALUES LOOK TO DIP TO OR A LITTLE BELOW 30
PERCENT ONCE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY AVERAGING
AROUND 10 MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 POSSIBLE. NO FIRE
WEATHER ACTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. IT IS ABOUT A 50/50 CHANCE THAT ANY ONE AREA WILL REACH A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN HAPPENS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AT
THIS POINT WE ARE PROJECTING MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND
A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THIS RAINFALL AMOUNT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR
NO EFFECT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ038>041-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
MA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/LFM










000
FXUS61 KBTV 241026
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
626 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...BRINGING
CLEARING SKIES AND GUSTY WINDS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER
AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON EACH NIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ONLY MINOR
ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 626 AM EDT THURSDAY...NW WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 5-15KTS WITH
GUSTS IN SO LOCATIONS OF 20-25KTS THIS MORNING. CLOUDS SLOW TO
ERODE FROM NRN VT. THIS MAY HELP TO KEEP RH VALUES FROM FALLING
AS MUCH...BUT AREAS EXPECTING LOWEST RH ALREADY CLEAR ACROSS SRN
HALF OF CPV AND SRN VT. WITH GUSTS ALREADY 20-25KTS THIS
MORNING...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED GUST IN
EXCESS OF 45MPH THIS AFTN IN SERN VT. OVERALL FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY AS SFC LOW HEADS FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. LLVL JET
OF 35-50KTS AT 850MB WILL AFFECT ERN VT...PRODUCING NW WINDS OF
15-25KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40KTS...CENTERED ALONG THE ERN SLOPES
OF THE GREEN MTNS INTO THE CT VALLEY. DOWNSLOPING MAY SEE
ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WITH MIXING TO AROUND 5KFT SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

IN ADDITION TO WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY...NW FLOW WILL ALSO BRING
DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH RH VALUES FALLING INTO
THE M20 TO M30 PERCENT RANGE. SEE FIRE WX SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. THREAT OF DRY AIR AND STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE CENTERED
AROUND 18Z- 22Z.

OTHERWISE...UPPER LVL TROUGH WHICH HELPED TO PRODUCE OVC SKIES
YESTERDAY HAS FOR THE MOST PART MOVE EAST...WITH ONLY NEK STILL
SEEING CLOUDY SKIES WHICH WILL GRADUALLY ERODE EWD TODAY. NW FLOW
WILL KEEP SLGTLY COOL INFLUX OF AIR SO MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 505 AM EDT THURSDAY...LVL JET QUICKLY EXITS E THIS
EVENING...AS SFC RIDGE SETS UP TO CREST OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN LGT TO CALM
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CHILLY OVERNGT MIN TEMPS. EXPECT
VALLEYS TO SEE FRIDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE M20S...WITH HIR TRRN IN
THE MID TEENS TO L20S.

FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE S AHEAD OF SFC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW
WILL TRACK ENE...INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
FRIDAY MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS
TO EDGE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXACT TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM STILL UNSURE AS
MODELS SUGGEST DOUBLE BARREL SYSTEM TAKING MOST OF ITS ENERGY OFF
THE LONG ISLAND COAST. THIS WOULD AFFECT HOW MUCH QPF THE NORTH
COUNTRY WOULD RECEIVE. EXPECT MOISTURE TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...MAKING FOR A
DREARY FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL BEFORE COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 407 AM EDT THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW A CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY...BUT THE FORECAST AREA WILL STILL
BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW...SO HAVE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. EXPECTING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST VERMONT. A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA AND REMAINS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES FOR THE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FORECAST. THUS...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. ECMWF MODEL HAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT OVER THE REGION WITH A DRY FORECAST INDICATED FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY... AS ECMWF MODEL SUGGESTING THE REGION WILL BE
UNDER AN OMEGA BLOCK WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
ATLANTIC SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...GFS MODEL
SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALSO OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WITH THE OTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW MUCH FURTHER EAST IN THE ATLANTIC
THAN DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF MODEL. GFS MODEL BRINGS MOISTURE
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FOR NOW...WILL USE SUPER
BLEND POPS AND KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST INTO THE
REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
AREA SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA DEEPENS. THIS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY WITH NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS EXPECTED
THROUGH 23Z THURSDAY. AFTER 23Z THURSDAY EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES
AND NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PASSAGE.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 505 AM EDT THURSDAY...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 1500 FEET ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
THE RECENT DRY SPELL...EXPECTED BREEZY WINDS...AND LOW MIN RH
VALUES.

MOST THE CPV AND SOUTHERN VERMONT HAVE SEEN LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST FIVE DAYS...THIS HAS RESULTED IN
SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE FINE FUELS PER LOCAL FOREST CONTACTS
BELOW 1500 FEET...WHERE GREEN UP HAS NOT OCCURRED.
MEANWHILE...ABOVE 1500 FEET MOST OF THE FINE FUELS AND LEAF
LITTER IS COMPRESSED FROM RECENT SNOW PACK OR STILL WET. MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT MTNS AND NORTHERN NY HAVE RECEIVED MEASURABLE
PRECIP OVER THE PAST 2 TO 5 DAYS OR SNOW PACK IS STILL ON THE
GROUND ABOVE 2000 FEET...RESULTING IN LIMITED THREAT.

BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35
MPH ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN...PARTS OF THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THIS AFTN. ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE PSBL ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MTNS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AND STRONGER LOW LVL JET NEAR
SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT.

IN ADDITION...MIN AFTN RH VALUES WL DROP BTWN 25% AND 35% BTWN 1
PM AND 5PM ACRS NRN NY...THE CPV AND SOUTHERN VT...WITH ISOLATED
READINGS OF 20% NEAR SPRINGFIELD VT POSSIBLE.

THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL DRYING OF
GRASSES...TWIGS...AND DEBRIS SUCH AS DEAD LEAVES FROM LAST FALL
WILL ALLOW ANY FIRES THAT DO OCCUR TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN
INTENSELY...AND BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN. PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
ANY OUTDOOR BURNING YOU MAY BE ATTEMPTING TODAY. MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS...DO NOT LEAVE YOUR BRUSH OR DEBRIS PILE
UNATTENDED...AND HEED ANY ADVICE FROM YOUR LOCAL FIRE WARDEN.

WILL CONTINUE T0 HIGHLIGHT THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT IN HWO...AS WELL AS A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/TABER
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF
FIRE WEATHER...TABER/KGM









000
FXUS61 KBTV 240905
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
505 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...BRINGING
CLEARING SKIES AND GUSTY WINDS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER
AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON EACH NIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ONLY MINOR
ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 505 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPRESSED PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY AS SFC LOW HEADS FURTHER INTO
THE ATLANTIC AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT. LLVL JET OF 35-50KTS AT 850MB WILL AFFECT ERN
VT...PRODUCING NW WINDS OF 15-25KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
40KTS...CENTERED ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS INTO THE
CT VALLEY. DOWNSLOPING MAY SEE ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH MIXING TO AROUND 5KFT
SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

IN ADDITION TO WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY...NW FLOW WILL ALSO BRING
DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH RH VALUES FALLING INTO
THE M20 TO M30 PERCENT RANGE. SEE FIRE WX SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. THREAT OF DRY AIR AND STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE CENTERED
AROUND 18Z- 22Z.

OTHERWISE...UPPER LVL TROUGH WHICH HELPED TO PRODUCE OVC SKIES
YESTERDAY HAS FOR THE MOST PART MOVE EAST...WITH ONLY NEK STILL
SEEING CLOUDY SKIES WHICH WILL GRADUALLY ERODE EWD TODAY. NW FLOW
WILL KEEP SLGTLY COOL INFLUX OF AIR SO MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 505 AM EDT THURSDAY...LVL JET QUICKLY EXITS E THIS
EVENING...AS SFC RIDGE SETS UP TO CREST OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN LGT TO CALM
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CHILLY OVERNGT MIN TEMPS. EXPECT
VALLEYS TO SEE FRIDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE M20S...WITH HIR TRRN IN
THE MID TEENS TO L20S.

FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE S AHEAD OF SFC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW
WILL TRACK ENE...INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
FRIDAY MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS
TO EDGE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXACT TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM STILL UNSURE AS
MODELS SUGGEST DOUBLE BARREL SYSTEM TAKING MOST OF ITS ENERGY OFF
THE LONG ISLAND COAST. THIS WOULD AFFECT HOW MUCH QPF THE NORTH
COUNTRY WOULD RECEIVE. EXPECT MOISTURE TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...MAKING FOR A
DREARY FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL BEFORE COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 407 AM EDT THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW A CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY...BUT THE FORECAST AREA WILL STILL
BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW...SO HAVE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. EXPECTING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST VERMONT. A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA AND REMAINS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES FOR THE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FORECAST. THUS...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. ECMWF MODEL HAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT OVER THE REGION WITH A DRY FORECAST INDICATED FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY... AS ECMWF MODEL SUGGESTING THE REGION WILL BE
UNDER AN OMEGA BLOCK WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
ATLANTIC SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...GFS MODEL
SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALSO OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WITH THE OTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW MUCH FURTHER EAST IN THE ATLANTIC
THAN DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF MODEL. GFS MODEL BRINGS MOISTURE
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FOR NOW...WILL USE SUPER
BLEND POPS AND KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST INTO THE
REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
AREA SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA DEEPENS. THIS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY WITH NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS EXPECTED
THROUGH 23Z THURSDAY. AFTER 23Z THURSDAY EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES
AND NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PASSAGE.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 505 AM EDT THURSDAY...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 1500 FEET ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
THE RECENT DRY SPELL...EXPECTED BREEZY WINDS...AND LOW MIN RH
VALUES.

MOST THE CPV AND SOUTHERN VERMONT HAVE SEEN LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST FIVE DAYS...THIS HAS RESULTED IN
SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE FINE FUELS PER LOCAL FOREST CONTACTS
BELOW 1500 FEET...WHERE GREEN UP HAS NOT OCCURRED.
MEANWHILE...ABOVE 1500 FEET MOST OF THE FINE FUELS AND LEAF
LITTER IS COMPRESSED FROM RECENT SNOW PACK OR STILL WET. MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT MTNS AND NORTHERN NY HAVE RECEIVED MEASURABLE
PRECIP OVER THE PAST 2 TO 5 DAYS OR SNOW PACK IS STILL ON THE
GROUND ABOVE 2000 FEET...RESULTING IN LIMITED THREAT.

BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35
MPH ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN...PARTS OF THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THIS AFTN. ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE PSBL ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MTNS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AND STRONGER LOW LVL JET NEAR
SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT.

IN ADDITION...MIN AFTN RH VALUES WL DROP BTWN 25% AND 35% BTWN 1
PM AND 5PM ACRS NRN NY...THE CPV AND SOUTHERN VT...WITH ISOLATED
READINGS OF 20% NEAR SPRINGFIELD VT POSSIBLE.

THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL DRYING OF
GRASSES...TWIGS...AND DEBRIS SUCH AS DEAD LEAVES FROM LAST FALL
WILL ALLOW ANY FIRES THAT DO OCCUR TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN
INTENSELY...AND BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN. PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
ANY OUTDOOR BURNING YOU MAY BE ATTEMPTING TODAY. MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS...DO NOT LEAVE YOUR BRUSH OR DEBRIS PILE
UNATTENDED...AND HEED ANY ADVICE FROM YOUR LOCAL FIRE WARDEN.

WILL CONTINUE T0 HIGHLIGHT THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT IN HWO...AS WELL AS A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/TABER
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF
FIRE WEATHER...TABER








000
FXUS61 KALY 240809
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
400 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST IN THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH MUCH
OF TODAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A BRISK DAY BUT WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. THE WIND
WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT LEAVING US WITH A COLD NIGHT FOR LATE APRIL.
FRIDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN ARRIVES TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...IFR SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE FEW IF ANY CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE THEME OF THE DAY...LOTS OF
SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO BETWEEN THE MID 30S TO LOWER
30S FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...30-35 TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT.

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WAS FOUND OVER THE GULF OF MAINE...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE RESIDED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. OUR AREA WAS
SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND A STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT.

A BREEZE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 15 MPH...ALONG WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.
THE WIND WILL PREVENT FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP SEVERAL DEGREES BY DAYBREAK. THEY WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

SUNSHINE WILL ATTEMPT TO HEAT UP THE SURFACE TODAY. HOWEVER...WITH
STILL PLENTY OF COLD AIR ALOFT...THIS HEATING WILL PRODUCE EXCELLENT
MIXING WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT...PRODUCING PRETTY IMPRESSIVE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON GUSTS. THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE TO 10
TO 20 MPH...BUT WILL GUST TO 30 MPH EVERYWHERE...PERHAPS UP TO 45
MPH ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN/35-40 ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

THE COMBINATION OF THESE GUSTY WINDS...VERY LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES
AND THE LACK OF A GOOD WETTING RAIN IN DAYS...HAS PROMPTED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA. FOR MORE ON
THESE...PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST DISCUSSION FOUND
LATER IN THE AFD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP BETWEEN 55 TO 60 IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER
40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY RELAX AS LOW PRESSURE
FINALLY MOVES FURTHER EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS A LITTLE AS IT
CREST OVER THE REGION. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A RAPID DIMINISHING OF
THE WIND THIS EVENING. THE SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR...WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS WILL OFFER BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS DESPITE SOME WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DIP TO AROUND 30 FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTHWARD...LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A MUCH MORE TRANQUIL DAY. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASES...IT NOW APPEARS FROM THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
COLLECTION THAT ANY RAIN FROM THE NEXT DISTURBANCE...SHOULD STAY MAINLY
WEST OF OUR REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT SNEAK
INTO AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. THE
COMBINATION OF SOME SUNSHINE...A BREEZE TURNING SOUTHERLY AND
PICKING UP TO AROUND 10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON...GOOD MIXING AND
WARM ADVECTION...WILL GIVE TEMPERATURES A BUMP UPWARD. LOOK FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS MOST AREAS...CLOSER TO 60 EVEN
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE...AN OCCLUDED FRONT
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION AND BRING SHOWERS.
ALL MODELS SUGGEST THE OLD PRIMARY LOW THAT WILL RIDE BY TO OUR
NORTH WILL WEAKEN WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
THIS SECONDARY LOW MIGHT ACTUALLY BRING A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BUT THIS SCENARIO IS NOT ETCHED IN
STONE YET. FOR NOW WE WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

IT MIGHT JUST COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE RAIN TO MIX
WITH OR MAYBE EVEN CHANGE TO WET SNOW OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY ACCUMULATIONS
FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT LOOKS LIGHT TO NIL.

THE SECONDARY LOW WILL PULL AWAY ON SATURDAY. A DRY SLOT SHOULD
BRING A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE TO SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE STORM WILL WORK
ACROSS THE REGION FROM ALBANY NORTH BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE WILL
CARRY THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHERN
WHILE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD. IN FACT...OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS MIGHT SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE.

THE AIR ALOFT WILL BE COOLING SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH GOOD
MIXING VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD SHOULD SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN AROUND 60 OR A LITTLE BETTER...50S FURTHER NORTH
WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OF RAIN OR EVEN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE MOST EVERYONE ELSE WILL
HAVE NOTHING THAN A BRIEF SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. IT LOOKS TO TURN
CHILLY ONCE MORE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW TUMBLING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 20S ADIRONDACKS
WHERE ONCE AGAIN A FEW SPOTS COULD PICK UP A DUSTING OF
SNOW.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC AND DEEPENING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE NET
RESULT IS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST PER THE 00Z
GLOBAL MODELS TO REMAIN IN PLACE MOST OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  WE
WILL HOLD ONTO SOME CHC POPS NORTH OF ALBANY EARLY ON SUNDAY AS
CYCLONIC FLOW AND MOISTURE LINGERS.  EVEN WITH PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND OR BELOW 0Z WHICH
WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE.

THE PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DEEPENS FURTHER
AND GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.  IT APPEARS WE WILL BE LOOKING FOR A RATHER WET PERIOD OF
WEATHER INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.  WHILE THE THERMAL COLUMN DOES
MODERATE...WITH THE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS AND NEAR NORMAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE DIMINISHING LEAVING BEHIND A CLEAR SKY.  THESE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST CYCLE ENDING
06Z/FRI.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN STEADY BETWEEN 5 KT
AND 15 KT..WITH SOME INTERMITTENT GUSTS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN WITH DAYLIGHT THURSDAY TO 14 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 600 PM ACROSS
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. IN
EASTERN NEW YORK STATE...THE RED FLAG WARNING INCLUDES ALL BUT THE
ADIRONDACKS. WE DID ADD SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY INTO WARNING.

...WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL GUSTS ANYWHERE FROM 30-45 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...IN CONJUNCTION WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 15-25
PERCENT. ALSO THE COMPUTED HAINES INDEX IS EXPECTED TO BE 5-6 IN
MOST AREAS...WHICH IS HIGH TO VERY HIGH AND CAN HELP SUPPORT FIRE
GROWTH.

PER EARLIER COORDINATION WITH OUR LIAISON STATE CONTACT
POINTS...MOST OF OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER BEHAVIOR TODAY. THE ADIRONDACKS WERE LEFT OUT SINCE
PROJECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES THERE TODAY WILL GENERALLY AROUND 50 OR
A LITTLE LESS. ALSO...THERE WAS A LITTLE MORE RAINFALL RECENTLY AS
WELL AS SOME LINGERING EFFECTS OF MELTING SNOW. FOR THIS AREA...WE
WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING ANY THE THREAT OF ANY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.

THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE 30
PERCENT.

FRIDAY...WILL FEATURE MORE CLOUDS THAN TODAY ALTHOUGH IT WILL
ACTUALLY BE MILDER. RH VALUES LOOK TO DIP TO OR A LITTLE BELOW 30
PERCENT ONCE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY AVERAGING
AROUND 10 MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 POSSIBLE. NO FIRE
WEATHER ACTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. IT IS ABOUT A 50/50 CHANCE THAT ANY ONE AREA WILL REACH A
QUARTER INCH OR MORE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN HAPPENS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AT
THIS POINT WE ARE PROJECTING MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND
A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THIS RAINFALL AMOUNT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR
NO EFFECT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ038>041-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
MA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/LFM










000
FXUS61 KBTV 240807
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
407 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BY
THURSDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. A
FEW MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 114 AM EDT THURSDAY...AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
SHRINKING...BUT GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
ERN VT...AND IN THE HIR TRRN. WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL
TROF ACRS THE NE CONUS SLOWLY LIFTING TWD EASTERN CANADA THROUGH
MORNING...WITH LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING ACRS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLW AND EMBEDDED
5H VORTS WL RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE NRN
GREEN MTNS EARLY THIS MORNING. SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED AROUND
700FT ELEVATION...BUT WARM GROUND AND LIFT QPF WILL KEEP SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD
MIXING AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER RH BTWN SFC AND 700MB RESULTING IN
LOTS OF CLOUDS...AT MIN TEMPS WL RANGE FROM UPPER TEENS IN
MTNS/SLK TO M/U 30S IN WARMER VALLEYS. NRN NY WILL BE ON COOLER
SIDE AS SUBSIDENCE AND CLEARING HAVE MOVED OVER THE AREA...MAKING
ITS WAY INTO THE CPV AND WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD. EXPECT
CLEARING WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO ERN VT BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MAIN FCST CONCERNS WL BE FIRE WX
RELATED ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP LATE FRIDAY.
SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS REGARDING WINDS/RH`S AND
RECENT DRY SPELL ACRS PARTS OF THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF
DEPARTING SFC LOW PRES AND BUILDING HIGH PRES WL RESULT IN BREEZY
TO GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH LOCALIZED
GUSTY TO 35 MPH. SOUNDINGS SHOW TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AROUND 35
KNOTS ON THURSDAY WITH BOTTOM LAYER WINDS AROUND 30
KNOTS...SUPPORTING THIS GUSTY WINDS. STILL THINKING SOME CLOUDS
WL LINGER ACRS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL MTNS OF VT...INCLUDING THE
NEK ON THURS...BUT CLRING SKIES WL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH SFC HIGH PRES. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -2C AND -4C...SUPPORT
HIGHS ONLY IN THE M/U 40S MTNS TO L/M50S WARMER VALLEYS ON
THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF CLR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WITH SFC
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN COOL TEMPS THURS NIGHT. LOWS WL
RANGE IN THE 20S COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO L/M 30S WARMER/WIDER
CPV/SLV VALLEYS.

MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NE CONUS. FEEL INITIAL S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB RH WL DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTER
RIDGE/DRY AIR ACRS OUR REGION. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS LATE
FRIDAY AFTN ACRS OUR WESTERN CWA AND INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF BETTER DYNAMICS. TEMPS WL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY
AND STAY MAINLY IN THE 40S FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS AND
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 407 AM EDT THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW A CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY...BUT THE FORECAST AREA WILL STILL BE
UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW...SO HAVE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST
VERMONT. A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA AND REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES FOR THE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FORECAST. THUS...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
ECMWF MODEL HAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
OVER THE REGION WITH A DRY FORECAST INDICATED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
AS ECMWF MODEL SUGGESTING THE REGION WILL BE UNDER AN OMEGA BLOCK
WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH ANOTHER
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...GFS
MODEL SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALSO OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH THE OTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW MUCH FURTHER EAST IN THE
ATLANTIC THAN DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF MODEL. GFS MODEL BRINGS
MOISTURE NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FOR NOW...WILL USE
SUPER BLEND POPS AND KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST INTO THE REGION FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
DEEPENS. THIS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND
GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH 23Z THURSDAY. AFTER 23Z THURSDAY
EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PASSAGE.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE ON THURSDAY FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW
1500 FEET ACROSS SOUTHERN VT...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE
RECENT DRY SPELL...EXPECTED BREEZY WINDS...AND LOW MIN RH VALUES.

THE LAST MEASURABLE PRECIP AT SPRINGFIELD VT ASOS WAS
4/15/14...WHEN 0.70" OCCURRED...SINCE THEN ONLY A TRACE OF PRECIP
HAS BEEN OBSERVED. SIMILAR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED AT RUTLAND
AWOS SITE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE FINE
FUELS PER LOCAL FOREST CONTACTS BELOW 1500 FEET...WHERE GREEN UP
HAS NOT OCCURRED. MEANWHILE...ABOVE 1500 FEET MOST OF THE FINE
FUELS AND LEAF LITTER IS COMPRESSED FROM RECENT SNOW PACK OR
STILL WET. MOST OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT MTNS AND PARTS OF NORTHERN
NY HAVE RECEIVED MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER THE PAST 2 TO 5 DAYS OR
SNOW PACK IS STILL ON THE GROUND ABOVE 2000 FEET...RESULTING IN
LIMITED THREAT.

BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30
MPH ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN...PARTS OF THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...MIN AFTN
RH VALUES WL DROP BTWN 25% AND 35% BTWN 1 PM AND 5PM ON THURSDAY
ACRS THIS AREA...WITH ISOLATED READINGS OF 20% NEAR SPRINGFIELD
VT POSSIBLE.

THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL DRYING OF
GRASSES...TWIGS...AND DEBRIS SUCH AS DEAD LEAVES FROM LAST FALL
AND YOU WILL WANT TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO ANY OUTDOOR BURNING
YOU MAY BE ATTEMPTING ON THURSDAY. MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS...DO NOT LEAVE YOUR BRUSH OR DEBRIS PILE
UNATTENDED...AND HEED ANY ADVICE FROM YOUR LOCAL FIRE WARDEN.

GIVEN THE SMALL GEOGRAPHICAL AREA WITH FAVORABLE FUEL CONDITIONS
AND MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS...NO FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL
BE ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO PRODUCT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF
FIRE WEATHER...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 240614
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
214 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BY
THURSDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. A
FEW MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 114 AM EDT THURSDAY...AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
SHRINKING...BUT GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
ERN VT...AND IN THE HIR TRRN. WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL
TROF ACRS THE NE CONUS SLOWLY LIFTING TWD EASTERN CANADA THROUGH
MORNING...WITH LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING ACRS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLW AND EMBEDDED
5H VORTS WL RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE NRN
GREEN MTNS EARLY THIS MORNING. SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED AROUND
700FT ELEVATION...BUT WARM GROUND AND LIFT QPF WILL KEEP SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD
MIXING AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER RH BTWN SFC AND 700MB RESULTING IN
LOTS OF CLOUDS...AT MIN TEMPS WL RANGE FROM UPPER TEENS IN
MTNS/SLK TO M/U 30S IN WARMER VALLEYS. NRN NY WILL BE ON COOLER
SIDE AS SUBSIDENCE AND CLEARING HAVE MOVED OVER THE AREA...MAKING
ITS WAY INTO THE CPV AND WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD. EXPECT
CLEARING WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO ERN VT BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MAIN FCST CONCERNS WL BE FIRE WX
RELATED ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP LATE FRIDAY.
SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS REGARDING WINDS/RH`S AND
RECENT DRY SPELL ACRS PARTS OF THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF
DEPARTING SFC LOW PRES AND BUILDING HIGH PRES WL RESULT IN BREEZY
TO GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH LOCALIZED
GUSTY TO 35 MPH. SOUNDINGS SHOW TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AROUND 35
KNOTS ON THURSDAY WITH BOTTOM LAYER WINDS AROUND 30
KNOTS...SUPPORTING THIS GUSTY WINDS. STILL THINKING SOME CLOUDS
WL LINGER ACRS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL MTNS OF VT...INCLUDING THE
NEK ON THURS...BUT CLRING SKIES WL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH SFC HIGH PRES. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -2C AND -4C...SUPPORT
HIGHS ONLY IN THE M/U 40S MTNS TO L/M50S WARMER VALLEYS ON
THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF CLR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WITH SFC
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN COOL TEMPS THURS NIGHT. LOWS WL
RANGE IN THE 20S COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO L/M 30S WARMER/WIDER
CPV/SLV VALLEYS.

MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NE CONUS. FEEL INITIAL S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB RH WL DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTER
RIDGE/DRY AIR ACRS OUR REGION. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS LATE
FRIDAY AFTN ACRS OUR WESTERN CWA AND INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF BETTER DYNAMICS. TEMPS WL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY
AND STAY MAINLY IN THE 40S FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS AND
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOOKING AT UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT CLOSES OFF OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RESULT WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
CLOUDY...COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKING PATTERN LOOKS TO SETUP ACROSS THE CONUS
WITH AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW STALLING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD... ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN-BETWEEN. WHILE WE
SHOULD SEE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD FOR NEXT
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE ENTIRE SETUP SLOWLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD...IF AND WHEN THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR A MULTI- DAY RAIN EVENT AS THE ROCKIES LOW SHIFTS EAST AND
TAPS INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE. TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EAST INTO THE REGION FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
DEEPENS. THIS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND
GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH 23Z THURSDAY. AFTER 23Z THURSDAY
EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PASSAGE.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE ON THURSDAY FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW
1500 FEET ACROSS SOUTHERN VT...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE
RECENT DRY SPELL...EXPECTED BREEZY WINDS...AND LOW MIN RH VALUES.

THE LAST MEASURABLE PRECIP AT SPRINGFIELD VT ASOS WAS
4/15/14...WHEN 0.70" OCCURRED...SINCE THEN ONLY A TRACE OF PRECIP
HAS BEEN OBSERVED. SIMILAR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED AT RUTLAND
AWOS SITE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE FINE
FUELS PER LOCAL FOREST CONTACTS BELOW 1500 FEET...WHERE GREEN UP
HAS NOT OCCURRED. MEANWHILE...ABOVE 1500 FEET MOST OF THE FINE
FUELS AND LEAF LITTER IS COMPRESSED FROM RECENT SNOW PACK OR
STILL WET. MOST OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT MTNS AND PARTS OF NORTHERN
NY HAVE RECEIVED MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER THE PAST 2 TO 5 DAYS OR
SNOW PACK IS STILL ON THE GROUND ABOVE 2000 FEET...RESULTING IN
LIMITED THREAT.

BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30
MPH ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN...PARTS OF THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...MIN AFTN
RH VALUES WL DROP BTWN 25% AND 35% BTWN 1 PM AND 5PM ON THURSDAY
ACRS THIS AREA...WITH ISOLATED READINGS OF 20% NEAR SPRINGFIELD
VT POSSIBLE.

THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL DRYING OF
GRASSES...TWIGS...AND DEBRIS SUCH AS DEAD LEAVES FROM LAST FALL
AND YOU WILL WANT TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO ANY OUTDOOR BURNING
YOU MAY BE ATTEMPTING ON THURSDAY. MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS...DO NOT LEAVE YOUR BRUSH OR DEBRIS PILE
UNATTENDED...AND HEED ANY ADVICE FROM YOUR LOCAL FIRE WARDEN.

GIVEN THE SMALL GEOGRAPHICAL AREA WITH FAVORABLE FUEL CONDITIONS
AND MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS...NO FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL
BE ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO PRODUCT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF
FIRE WEATHER...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 240514
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
114 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BY
THURSDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. A
FEW MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 114 AM EDT THURSDAY...AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
SHRINKING...BUT GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
ERN VT...AND IN THE HIR TRRN. WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL
TROF ACRS THE NE CONUS SLOWLY LIFTING TWD EASTERN CANADA THROUGH
MORNING...WITH LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING ACRS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLW AND EMBEDDED
5H VORTS WL RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE NRN
GREEN MTNS EARLY THIS MORNING. SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED AROUND
700FT ELEVATION...BUT WARM GROUND AND LIFT QPF WILL KEEP SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD
MIXING AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER RH BTWN SFC AND 700MB RESULTING IN
LOTS OF CLOUDS...AT MIN TEMPS WL RANGE FROM UPPER TEENS IN
MTNS/SLK TO M/U 30S IN WARMER VALLEYS. NRN NY WILL BE ON COOLER
SIDE AS SUBSIDENCE AND CLEARING HAVE MOVED OVER THE AREA...MAKING
ITS WAY INTO THE CPV AND WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD. EXPECT
CLEARING WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO ERN VT BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MAIN FCST CONCERNS WL BE FIRE WX
RELATED ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP LATE FRIDAY.
SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS REGARDING WINDS/RH`S AND
RECENT DRY SPELL ACRS PARTS OF THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF
DEPARTING SFC LOW PRES AND BUILDING HIGH PRES WL RESULT IN BREEZY
TO GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH LOCALIZED
GUSTY TO 35 MPH. SOUNDINGS SHOW TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AROUND 35
KNOTS ON THURSDAY WITH BOTTOM LAYER WINDS AROUND 30
KNOTS...SUPPORTING THIS GUSTY WINDS. STILL THINKING SOME CLOUDS
WL LINGER ACRS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL MTNS OF VT...INCLUDING THE
NEK ON THURS...BUT CLRING SKIES WL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH SFC HIGH PRES. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -2C AND -4C...SUPPORT
HIGHS ONLY IN THE M/U 40S MTNS TO L/M50S WARMER VALLEYS ON
THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF CLR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WITH SFC
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN COOL TEMPS THURS NIGHT. LOWS WL
RANGE IN THE 20S COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO L/M 30S WARMER/WIDER
CPV/SLV VALLEYS.

MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NE CONUS. FEEL INITIAL S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB RH WL DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTER
RIDGE/DRY AIR ACRS OUR REGION. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS LATE
FRIDAY AFTN ACRS OUR WESTERN CWA AND INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF BETTER DYNAMICS. TEMPS WL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY
AND STAY MAINLY IN THE 40S FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS AND
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOOKING AT UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT CLOSES OFF OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RESULT WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
CLOUDY...COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY.
THEREAFTER...BLOCKING PATTERN LOOKS TO SETUP ACROSS THE CONUS
WITH AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW STALLING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD... ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN-BETWEEN. WHILE WE
SHOULD SEE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD FOR NEXT
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE ENTIRE SETUP SLOWLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD...IF AND WHEN THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR A MULTI- DAY RAIN EVENT AS THE ROCKIES LOW SHIFTS EAST AND
TAPS INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE. TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...BKN/OVC VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO
PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY MORNING THURSDAY BEFORE CEILINGS SCATTER
OUT LATER IN THE DAY. SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS 10-12 KTS WITH 20-28
KT GUSTS DROPPING OFF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE GUSTS TO PICK BACK UP AGAIN BY AROUND 12-14Z
AS MIXING COMMENCES.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CONTINUED GUSTS
FROM THE NW 00Z THRU 12Z FRI.

00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PASSAGE.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE ON THURSDAY FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW
1500 FEET ACROSS SOUTHERN VT...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE
RECENT DRY SPELL...EXPECTED BREEZY WINDS...AND LOW MIN RH VALUES.

THE LAST MEASURABLE PRECIP AT SPRINGFIELD VT ASOS WAS
4/15/14...WHEN 0.70" OCCURRED...SINCE THEN ONLY A TRACE OF PRECIP
HAS BEEN OBSERVED. SIMILAR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED AT RUTLAND
AWOS SITE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE FINE
FUELS PER LOCAL FOREST CONTACTS BELOW 1500 FEET...WHERE GREEN UP
HAS NOT OCCURRED. MEANWHILE...ABOVE 1500 FEET MOST OF THE FINE
FUELS AND LEAF LITTER IS COMPRESSED FROM RECENT SNOW PACK OR
STILL WET. MOST OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT MTNS AND PARTS OF NORTHERN
NY HAVE RECEIVED MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER THE PAST 2 TO 5 DAYS OR
SNOW PACK IS STILL ON THE GROUND ABOVE 2000 FEET...RESULTING IN
LIMITED THREAT.

BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30
MPH ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN...PARTS OF THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...MIN AFTN
RH VALUES WL DROP BTWN 25% AND 35% BTWN 1 PM AND 5PM ON THURSDAY
ACRS THIS AREA...WITH ISOLATED READINGS OF 20% NEAR SPRINGFIELD
VT POSSIBLE.

THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL DRYING OF
GRASSES...TWIGS...AND DEBRIS SUCH AS DEAD LEAVES FROM LAST FALL
AND YOU WILL WANT TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO ANY OUTDOOR BURNING
YOU MAY BE ATTEMPTING ON THURSDAY. MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS...DO NOT LEAVE YOUR BRUSH OR DEBRIS PILE
UNATTENDED...AND HEED ANY ADVICE FROM YOUR LOCAL FIRE WARDEN.

GIVEN THE SMALL GEOGRAPHICAL AREA WITH FAVORABLE FUEL CONDITIONS
AND MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS...NO FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL
BE ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO PRODUCT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO
FIRE WEATHER...TABER








000
FXUS61 KALY 240509
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST IN THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH MUCH
OF TODAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A BRISK DAY BUT WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...RADARS INDICATED ALL SHOWERS ARE OVER AND IN
FACT...THE SKY WAS CLEARING ACROSS MOST AREAS. THE BREEZE REMAINS UP
AND WILL DO DURING THE OVERNIGHT. BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES
(BEING A LITTLE HIGHER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGH) WENT AHEAD AND RAISED
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES 3 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD. THAT WILL MEAN LOWS
WILL END UP BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID TO UPPER 20S FURTHER NORTH.
THE BREEZE WILL MAKE THESE TEMPERATURES FEEL AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES
COLDER THAN THESE VALUES AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY...THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LARGE SCALE SURFACE DIVERGENCE GIVING
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. AS A DEEPENING LOW MOVES
OFF THE COAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AN
ESTABLISHED PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
DEVELOP IN THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER PARAMETERS ALSO SET UP FOR POSSIBLE FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES. PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF THE AFD FOR
FURTHER DETAILS AND FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN TO
MID AND UPPER 50S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION WITH A FEW LOWER 60S.
AS WE GO INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 5 MPH
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AND TRANQUIL
WEATHER CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL
VALUES. LOW TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S
IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO NEAR 30 IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION.

AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
EAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. WITH T850 BETWEEN
4C AND 6C AND T925 BETWEEN 8C AND 10C...WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
EVENING...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.
LATEST 12Z MODELS AND NUMERICAL PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS NOT IN
TOTAL AGREEMENT WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND TIMING...HOWEVER THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON
FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MAY MIX WITH
OR CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM
MOVES OUT QUICKLY...AND IS FOLLOWED BY A SLOWING PATTERN...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CAROLINAS DIGGING ACROSS OUR AREA
BEGINNING WITH THE NEW WEEK.  THIS RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY WILL HEAD EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY.  THIS LOW WILL
SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY ON ITS JOURNEY...MAKING LITTLE FURTHER PROGRESS
ON WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL SPILL OUT AHEAD OF IT...
INCREASING CLOUDS AND POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  WITH THE STUBBORN
RIDGE DOWN ACROSS MAINE ON WEDNESDAY...THE ONSET OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY ACTUALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID-WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO MID
60S.  THESE HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES LOWER FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES THEN MODERATE SLIGHTLY EACH DAY ...WITH HIGHS BY
WEDNESDAY FROM THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 40
DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OR
SO COOLER SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODERATION THEREAFTER.  BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
AS HIGH AS 45 DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE DIMINISHING LEAVING BEHIND A CLEAR SKY.  THESE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST CYCLE ENDING
06Z/FRI.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN STEADY BETWEEN 5 KT
AND 15 KT..WITH SOME INTERMITTENT GUSTS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN WITH DAYLIGHT THURSDAY TO 14 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 6 PM TOMORROW FOR
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EAST CENTRAL NY EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACK REGION...AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...

AN ESTABLISHED NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL BE OVER THE REGION...AS WE GO
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO AS LOW AS 15 TO 25 PERCENT AS WE GO
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE TIMING OF THESE WEATHER ELEMENTS
AND THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS OF SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION
CLIMATOLOGY IN THE REGION /LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IN 5
DAYS/...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HEADLINE HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND CERTAIN AREAS OF EASTERN NEW YORK. THIS DOES
NOT INCLUDE THE ADIRONDACKS REGION AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...WHERE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ON THURSDAY AS WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND RH VALUES WILL INCREASE
TO ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED AND ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO
SPECIFIC HEADLINES WILL BE COORDINATED WITH THE APPROPRIATE
OFFICIALS AND UPDATED ACCORDINGLY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WORKING INTO THE REGION AS WE GO
INTO THURSDAY WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS AND NO RAINFALL
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND ALONG AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR NYZ039>041-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...LFM








000
FXUS61 KALY 240500
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
100 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST IN THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH MUCH
OF TODAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A BRISK DAY BUT WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...RADARS INDICATED ALL SHOWERS ARE OVER AND IN
FACT...THE SKY WAS CLEARING ACROSS MOST AREAS. THE BREEZE REMAINS UP
AND WILL DO DURING THE OVERNIGHT. BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES
(BEING A LITTLE HIGHER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGH) WENT AHEAD AND RAISED
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES 3 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD. THAT WILL MEAN LOWS
WILL END UP BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID TO UPPER 20S FURTHER NORTH.
THE BREEZE WILL MAKE THESE TEMPERATURES FEEL AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES
COLDER THAN THESE VALUES AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY...THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LARGE SCALE SURFACE DIVERGENCE GIVING
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. AS A DEEPENING LOW MOVES
OFF THE COAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AN
ESTABLISHED PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
DEVELOP IN THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER PARAMETERS ALSO SET UP FOR POSSIBLE FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES. PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF THE AFD FOR
FURTHER DETAILS AND FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN TO
MID AND UPPER 50S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION WITH A FEW LOWER 60S.
AS WE GO INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 5 MPH
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AND TRANQUIL
WEATHER CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL
VALUES. LOW TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S
IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO NEAR 30 IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION.

AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
EAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. WITH T850 BETWEEN
4C AND 6C AND T925 BETWEEN 8C AND 10C...WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
EVENING...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.
LATEST 12Z MODELS AND NUMERICAL PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS NOT IN
TOTAL AGREEMENT WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND TIMING...HOWEVER THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON
FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MAY MIX WITH
OR CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM
MOVES OUT QUICKLY...AND IS FOLLOWED BY A SLOWING PATTERN...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CAROLINAS DIGGING ACROSS OUR AREA
BEGINNING WITH THE NEW WEEK.  THIS RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY WILL HEAD EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY.  THIS LOW WILL
SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY ON ITS JOURNEY...MAKING LITTLE FURTHER PROGRESS
ON WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL SPILL OUT AHEAD OF IT...
INCREASING CLOUDS AND POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  WITH THE STUBBORN
RIDGE DOWN ACROSS MAINE ON WEDNESDAY...THE ONSET OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY ACTUALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID-WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO MID
60S.  THESE HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES LOWER FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES THEN MODERATE SLIGHTLY EACH DAY ...WITH HIGHS BY
WEDNESDAY FROM THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 40
DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OR
SO COOLER SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODERATION THEREAFTER.  BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
AS HIGH AS 45 DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AROUND KPSF...AND CEILINGS AT
KPSF GRADUALLY RISING BACK TO VFR...CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY
SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR AT ALL THE SITES.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN STEADY BETWEEN 5
KT AND 15 KT..WITH SOME INTERMITTENT GUSTS POSSIBLE AT KALB TONIGHT.
THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY TO 14 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 6 PM TOMORROW FOR
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EAST CENTRAL NY EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACK REGION...AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...

AN ESTABLISHED NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL BE OVER THE REGION...AS WE GO
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO AS LOW AS 15 TO 25 PERCENT AS WE GO
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE TIMING OF THESE WEATHER ELEMENTS
AND THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS OF SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION
CLIMATOLOGY IN THE REGION /LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IN 5
DAYS/...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HEADLINE HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND CERTAIN AREAS OF EASTERN NEW YORK. THIS DOES
NOT INCLUDE THE ADIRONDACKS REGION AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...WHERE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ON THURSDAY AS WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND RH VALUES WILL INCREASE
TO ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED AND ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO
SPECIFIC HEADLINES WILL BE COORDINATED WITH THE APPROPRIATE
OFFICIALS AND UPDATED ACCORDINGLY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WORKING INTO THE REGION AS WE GO
INTO THURSDAY WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS AND NO RAINFALL
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND ALONG AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR NYZ039>041-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...LFM










000
FXUS61 KBTV 240225
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1025 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BY THURSDAY
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1020 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD
SHAPE. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WITH LATEST UPDATE...MAINLY TO KEEP
FORECAST CURRENT BY INPUTTING LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO GRIDS.
WE REMAIN UNDER INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGH...WITH CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING. CLEARING LINE INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AT THIS TIME. EXPECT IT TO ADVANCE SLOWLY EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. SLOWED CLEARING A BIT FROM ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD
BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. THE THREAT OF ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL
COME TO AN END ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT CHANCES CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AS FORECAST INDICATES. ANY PCPN
AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. NO CHANGES TO MIN TEMP FORECASTS FOR
TONIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...EXCEPT 20S
IN ADIRONDACKS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE NE CONUS SLOWLY
LIFTING TWD EASTERN CANADA OVERNIGHT...WITH LARGE AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WL SLOWLY
MOVE TWD OUR REGION AFT MIDNIGHT WITH SOME CLRING ACRS OUR WESTERN
CWA. MEANWHILE...THE COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLW AND EMBEDDED 5H
VORTS WL RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE MTNS
TONIGHT. WL USE THE BTV 4KM AND RAP 13 TO HIGHLIGHT UPSLOPE PRECIP
THIS EVENING...BUT OVERALL QPF/SNOWFALL WL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY
ACCUMULATION ABOVE 2000 FT. THINKING QPF WL BE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH AT BEST. WL MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS ACRS THE
NORTHERN DACKS AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS IN VT THRU
06Z...THEN TAPER OFF TWD MORNING. SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING
TONIGHT AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER RH BTWN SFC AND 700MB RESULTING IN
LOTS OF CLOUDS...SO THINKING LOWS WL RANGE FROM UPPER 20S MTNS/SLK
TO M/U 30S WARMER VALLEYS. I REALIZE GUIDANCE FOR SLK IS AROUND
20F...BUT THIS SEEMS WAY TOO COLD BASED ON CLOUDS/WINDS...AND CRNT
SFC DWPTS IN THE M30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MAIN FCST CONCERNS WL BE FIRE WX
RELATED ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP LATE FRIDAY.
SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS REGARDING WINDS/RH`S AND
RECENT DRY SPELL ACRS PARTS OF THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF
DEPARTING SFC LOW PRES AND BUILDING HIGH PRES WL RESULT IN BREEZY
TO GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH LOCALIZED
GUSTY TO 35 MPH. SOUNDINGS SHOW TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AROUND 35
KNOTS ON THURSDAY WITH BOTTOM LAYER WINDS AROUND 30
KNOTS...SUPPORTING THIS GUSTY WINDS. STILL THINKING SOME CLOUDS WL
LINGER ACRS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL MTNS OF VT...INCLUDING THE NEK ON
THURS...BUT CLRING SKIES WL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SFC
HIGH PRES. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -2C AND -4C...SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY
IN THE M/U 40S MTNS TO L/M50S WARMER VALLEYS ON THURSDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF CLR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WITH SFC HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN COOL TEMPS THURS NIGHT. LOWS WL RANGE IN THE
20S COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO L/M 30S WARMER/WIDER CPV/SLV VALLEYS.

MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NE CONUS. FEEL INITIAL S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB RH WL DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTER
RIDGE/DRY AIR ACRS OUR REGION. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS LATE FRIDAY
AFTN ACRS OUR WESTERN CWA AND INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
BETTER DYNAMICS. TEMPS WL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND STAY
MAINLY IN THE 40S FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOOKING AT UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT CLOSES OFF OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RESULT WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
CLOUDY...COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...BLOCKING
PATTERN LOOKS TO SETUP ACROSS THE CONUS WITH AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED
LOW STALLING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD... ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
IN-BETWEEN. WHILE WE SHOULD SEE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD FOR NEXT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE ENTIRE SETUP
SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD...IF AND WHEN THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MULTI- DAY RAIN EVENT AS THE ROCKIES LOW
SHIFTS EAST AND TAPS INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE. TEMPS WILL BE
GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...BKN/OVC VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGH EARLY MORNING THURSDAY BEFORE CEILINGS SCATTER OUT LATER
IN THE DAY. SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS 10-12 KTS WITH 20-28 KT GUSTS
DROPPING OFF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE
GUSTS TO PICK BACK UP AGAIN BY AROUND 12-14Z AS MIXING COMMENCES.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CONTINUED GUSTS FROM
THE NW 00Z THRU 12Z FRI.

00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PASSAGE.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE ON THURSDAY FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW
1500 FEET ACROSS SOUTHERN VT...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE RECENT
DRY SPELL...EXPECTED BREEZY WINDS...AND LOW MIN RH VALUES.

THE LAST MEASURABLE PRECIP AT SPRINGFIELD VT ASOS WAS
4/15/14...WHEN 0.70" OCCURRED...SINCE THEN ONLY A TRACE OF PRECIP
HAS BEEN OBSERVED. SIMILAR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED AT
RUTLAND AWOS SITE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE
FINE FUELS PER LOCAL FOREST CONTACTS BELOW 1500 FEET...WHERE GREEN
UP HAS NOT OCCURRED. MEANWHILE...ABOVE 1500 FEET MOST OF THE FINE
FUELS AND LEAF LITTER IS COMPRESSED FROM RECENT SNOW PACK OR STILL
WET. MOST OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT MTNS AND PARTS OF NORTHERN NY
HAVE RECEIVED MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER THE PAST 2 TO 5 DAYS OR SNOW
PACK IS STILL ON THE GROUND ABOVE 2000 FEET...RESULTING IN LIMITED
THREAT.

BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN...PARTS OF THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...MIN AFTN RH
VALUES WL DROP BTWN 25% AND 35% BTWN 1 PM AND 5PM ON THURSDAY ACRS
THIS AREA...WITH ISOLATED READINGS OF 20% NEAR SPRINGFIELD VT
POSSIBLE.

THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL DRYING OF
GRASSES...TWIGS...AND DEBRIS SUCH AS DEAD LEAVES FROM LAST FALL AND
YOU WILL WANT TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO ANY OUTDOOR BURNING YOU MAY
BE ATTEMPTING ON THURSDAY. MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS...DO NOT LEAVE
YOUR BRUSH OR DEBRIS PILE UNATTENDED...AND HEED ANY ADVICE FROM YOUR
LOCAL FIRE WARDEN.

GIVEN THE SMALL GEOGRAPHICAL AREA WITH FAVORABLE FUEL CONDITIONS AND
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS...NO FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO PRODUCT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO
FIRE WEATHER...TABER







000
FXUS61 KALY 240209
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1009 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
REGION WITH CLEARING AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. TONIGHT...A BREEZE
WILL CONTINUE AS IT CLEARS AND TURNS COLD. SUNSHINE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BUT THE BREEZE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS ARE ABOUT GONE...AND CLOUD COVER IS ERODING FROM WEST TO
EAST. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WINDS
WILL STAY UP. JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT.

PREV DISC. BELOW...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OVER LAKE HURON AND
LAKE ERIE AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT WITH AN ESTABLISHED NORTH-WESTERLY
FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH AS WE GO INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FLOW WILL USHER IN VERY CHILLY OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
NEAR 20 IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO MID AND UPPER 20S FOR THE REST OF
THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY...THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LARGE SCALE SURFACE DIVERGENCE GIVING
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. AS A DEEPENING LOW MOVES
OFF THE COAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AN
ESTABLISHED PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
DEVELOP IN THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER PARAMETERS ALSO SET UP FOR POSSIBLE FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES. PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF THE AFD FOR
FURTHER DETAILS AND FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN TO
MID AND UPPER 50S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION WITH A FEW LOWER 60S.
AS WE GO INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 5 MPH
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AND TRANQUIL
WEATHER CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL
VALUES. LOW TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S
IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO NEAR 30 IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION.

AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
EAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. WITH T850 BETWEEN
4C AND 6C AND T925 BETWEEN 8C AND 10C...WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
EVENING...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.
LATEST 12Z MODELS AND NUMERICAL PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS NOT IN
TOTAL AGREEMENT WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND TIMING...HOWEVER THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON
FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MAY MIX WITH
OR CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM
MOVES OUT QUICKLY...AND IS FOLLOWED BY A SLOWING PATTERN...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CAROLINAS DIGGING ACROSS OUR AREA
BEGINNING WITH THE NEW WEEK.  THIS RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY WILL HEAD EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY.  THIS LOW WILL
SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY ON ITS JOURNEY...MAKING LITTLE FURTHER PROGRESS
ON WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL SPILL OUT AHEAD OF IT...
INCREASING CLOUDS AND POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  WITH THE STUBBORN
RIDGE DOWN ACROSS MAINE ON WEDNESDAY...THE ONSET OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY ACTUALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID-WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO MID
60S.  THESE HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES LOWER FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES THEN MODERATE SLIGHTLY EACH DAY ...WITH HIGHS BY
WEDNESDAY FROM THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 40
DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OR
SO COOLER SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODERATION THEREAFTER.  BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
AS HIGH AS 45 DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AROUND KPSF...AND CEILINGS AT
KPSF GRADUALLY RISING BACK TO VFR...CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY
SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR AT ALL THE SITES.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN STEADY BETWEEN 5
KT AND 15 KT..WITH SOME INTERMITTENT GUSTS POSSIBLE AT KALB TONIGHT.
THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY TO 14 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 6 PM TOMORROW FOR
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EAST CENTRAL NY EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACK REGION...AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...

AN ESTABLISHED NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL BE OVER THE REGION...AS WE GO
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO AS LOW AS 15 TO 25 PERCENT AS WE GO
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE TIMING OF THESE WEATHER ELEMENTS
AND THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS OF SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION CLIMATOLOGY
IN THE REGION /LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IN 5 DAYS/...A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HEADLINE HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND CERTAIN AREAS OF EASTERN NEW YORK. THIS DOES NOT
INCLUDE THE ADIRONDACKS REGION AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ON THURSDAY AS WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND RH VALUES WILL INCREASE
TO ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED AND ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO
SPECIFIC HEADLINES WILL BE COORDINATED WITH THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS
AND UPDATED ACCORDINGLY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WORKING INTO THE REGION AS WE GO
INTO THURSDAY WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS AND NO RAINFALL
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND ALONG AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ039>041-043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM/NAS
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...LFM








000
FXUS61 KBTV 232334
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
734 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BY THURSDAY
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY
MINOR CHANGES WITH LATEST UPDATE...MAINLY TO INPUT LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO GRIDS. WE REMAIN UNDER INFLUENCE OF UPPER
TROUGH...WITH CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING. CLEARING LINE
APPROACHING SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AT THIS TIME. EXPECT IT TO
ADVANCE SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT...WITH THREAT OF ANY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS COMING TO AN END ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT CHANCES
CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AS FORECAST INDICATES.
ANY PCPN AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. NO CHANGES TO TEMP FORECASTS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE NE CONUS SLOWLY
LIFTING TWD EASTERN CANADA OVERNIGHT...WITH LARGE AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WL SLOWLY
MOVE TWD OUR REGION AFT MIDNIGHT WITH SOME CLRING ACRS OUR WESTERN
CWA. MEANWHILE...THE COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLW AND EMBEDDED 5H
VORTS WL RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE MTNS
TONIGHT. WL USE THE BTV 4KM AND RAP 13 TO HIGHLIGHT UPSLOPE PRECIP
THIS EVENING...BUT OVERALL QPF/SNOWFALL WL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY
ACCUMULATION ABOVE 2000 FT. THINKING QPF WL BE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH AT BEST. WL MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS ACRS THE
NORTHERN DACKS AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS IN VT THRU
06Z...THEN TAPER OFF TWD MORNING. SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING
TONIGHT AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER RH BTWN SFC AND 700MB RESULTING IN
LOTS OF CLOUDS...SO THINKING LOWS WL RANGE FROM UPPER 20S MTNS/SLK
TO M/U 30S WARMER VALLEYS. I REALIZE GUIDANCE FOR SLK IS AROUND
20F...BUT THIS SEEMS WAY TOO COLD BASED ON CLOUDS/WINDS...AND CRNT
SFC DWPTS IN THE M30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MAIN FCST CONCERNS WL BE FIRE WX
RELATED ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP LATE FRIDAY.
SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS REGARDING WINDS/RH`S AND
RECENT DRY SPELL ACRS PARTS OF THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF
DEPARTING SFC LOW PRES AND BUILDING HIGH PRES WL RESULT IN BREEZY
TO GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH LOCALIZED
GUSTY TO 35 MPH. SOUNDINGS SHOW TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AROUND 35
KNOTS ON THURSDAY WITH BOTTOM LAYER WINDS AROUND 30
KNOTS...SUPPORTING THIS GUSTY WINDS. STILL THINKING SOME CLOUDS WL
LINGER ACRS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL MTNS OF VT...INCLUDING THE NEK ON
THURS...BUT CLRING SKIES WL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SFC
HIGH PRES. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -2C AND -4C...SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY
IN THE M/U 40S MTNS TO L/M50S WARMER VALLEYS ON THURSDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF CLR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WITH SFC HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN COOL TEMPS THURS NIGHT. LOWS WL RANGE IN THE
20S COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO L/M 30S WARMER/WIDER CPV/SLV VALLEYS.

MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NE CONUS. FEEL INITIAL S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB RH WL DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTER
RIDGE/DRY AIR ACRS OUR REGION. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS LATE FRIDAY
AFTN ACRS OUR WESTERN CWA AND INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
BETTER DYNAMICS. TEMPS WL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND STAY
MAINLY IN THE 40S FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOOKING AT UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT CLOSES OFF OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RESULT WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
CLOUDY...COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...BLOCKING
PATTERN LOOKS TO SETUP ACROSS THE CONUS WITH AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED
LOW STALLING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD... ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
IN-BETWEEN. WHILE WE SHOULD SEE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD FOR NEXT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE ENTIRE SETUP
SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD...IF AND WHEN THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MULTI- DAY RAIN EVENT AS THE ROCKIES LOW
SHIFTS EAST AND TAPS INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE. TEMPS WILL BE
GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...BKN/OVC VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGH EARLY MORNING THURSDAY BEFORE CEILINGS SCATTER OUT LATER
IN THE DAY. SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS 10-12 KTS WITH 20-28 KT GUSTS
DROPPING OFF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE
GUSTS TO PICK BACK UP AGAIN BY AROUND 12-14Z AS MIXING COMMENCES.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CONTINUED GUSTS FROM
THE NW 00Z THRU 12Z FRI.

00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PASSAGE.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE ON THURSDAY FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW
1500 FEET ACROSS SOUTHERN VT...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE RECENT
DRY SPELL...EXPECTED BREEZY WINDS...AND LOW MIN RH VALUES.

THE LAST MEASURABLE PRECIP AT SPRINGFIELD VT ASOS WAS
4/15/14...WHEN 0.70" OCCURRED...SINCE THEN ONLY A TRACE OF PRECIP
HAS BEEN OBSERVED. SIMILAR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED AT
RUTLAND AWOS SITE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE
FINE FUELS PER LOCAL FOREST CONTACTS BELOW 1500 FEET...WHERE GREEN
UP HAS NOT OCCURRED. MEANWHILE...ABOVE 1500 FEET MOST OF THE FINE
FUELS AND LEAF LITTER IS COMPRESSED FROM RECENT SNOW PACK OR STILL
WET. MOST OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT MTNS AND PARTS OF NORTHERN NY
HAVE RECEIVED MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER THE PAST 2 TO 5 DAYS OR SNOW
PACK IS STILL ON THE GROUND ABOVE 2000 FEET...RESULTING IN LIMITED
THREAT.

BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN...PARTS OF THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...MIN AFTN RH
VALUES WL DROP BTWN 25% AND 35% BTWN 1 PM AND 5PM ON THURSDAY ACRS
THIS AREA...WITH ISOLATED READINGS OF 20% NEAR SPRINGFIELD VT
POSSIBLE.

THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL DRYING OF
GRASSES...TWIGS...AND DEBRIS SUCH AS DEAD LEAVES FROM LAST FALL AND
YOU WILL WANT TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO ANY OUTDOOR BURNING YOU MAY
BE ATTEMPTING ON THURSDAY. MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS...DO NOT LEAVE
YOUR BRUSH OR DEBRIS PILE UNATTENDED...AND HEED ANY ADVICE FROM YOUR
LOCAL FIRE WARDEN.

GIVEN THE SMALL GEOGRAPHICAL AREA WITH FAVORABLE FUEL CONDITIONS AND
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS...NO FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO PRODUCT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO
FIRE WEATHER...TABER







000
FXUS61 KALY 232333
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
733 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
REGION WITH CLEARING AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. TONIGHT...A BREEZE
WILL CONTINUE AS IT CLEARS AND TURNS COLD. SUNSHINE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BUT THE BREEZE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
STILL SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES AROUND...BUT THEY ARE
DRYING UP. THERE SHOULD BE A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND THROUGH THE
NIGHT. JUST SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

PREV DISC. BELOW...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OVER LAKE HURON AND
LAKE ERIE AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT WITH AN ESTABLISHED NORTH-WESTERLY
FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH AS WE GO INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FLOW WILL USHER IN VERY CHILLY OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
NEAR 20 IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO MID AND UPPER 20S FOR THE REST OF
THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY...THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LARGE SCALE SURFACE DIVERGENCE GIVING
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. AS A DEEPENING LOW MOVES
OFF THE COAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AN
ESTABLISHED PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
DEVELOP IN THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER PARAMETERS ALSO SET UP FOR POSSIBLE FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES. PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF THE AFD FOR
FURTHER DETAILS AND FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN TO
MID AND UPPER 50S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION WITH A FEW LOWER 60S.
AS WE GO INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 5 MPH
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AND TRANQUIL
WEATHER CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL
VALUES. LOW TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S
IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO NEAR 30 IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION.

AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
EAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. WITH T850 BETWEEN
4C AND 6C AND T925 BETWEEN 8C AND 10C...WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
EVENING...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.
LATEST 12Z MODELS AND NUMERICAL PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS NOT IN
TOTAL AGREEMENT WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND TIMING...HOWEVER THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON
FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MAY MIX WITH
OR CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM
MOVES OUT QUICKLY...AND IS FOLLOWED BY A SLOWING PATTERN...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CAROLINAS DIGGING ACROSS OUR AREA
BEGINNING WITH THE NEW WEEK.  THIS RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY WILL HEAD EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY.  THIS LOW WILL
SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY ON ITS JOURNEY...MAKING LITTLE FURTHER PROGRESS
ON WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL SPILL OUT AHEAD OF IT...
INCREASING CLOUDS AND POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  WITH THE STUBBORN
RIDGE DOWN ACROSS MAINE ON WEDNESDAY...THE ONSET OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY ACTUALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID-WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO MID
60S.  THESE HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES LOWER FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES THEN MODERATE SLIGHTLY EACH DAY ...WITH HIGHS BY
WEDNESDAY FROM THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 40
DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OR
SO COOLER SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODERATION THEREAFTER.  BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
AS HIGH AS 45 DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AROUND KPSF...AND CEILINGS AT
KPSF GRADUALLY RISING BACK TO VFR...CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY
SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR AT ALL THE SITES.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN STEADY BETWEEN 5
KT AND 15 KT..WITH SOME INTERMITTENT GUSTS POSSIBLE AT KALB TONIGHT.
THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY TO 14 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 6 PM TOMORROW FOR
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EAST CENTRAL NY EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACK REGION...AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...

AN ESTABLISHED NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL BE OVER THE REGION...AS WE GO
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO AS LOW AS 15 TO 25 PERCENT AS WE GO
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE TIMING OF THESE WEATHER ELEMENTS
AND THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS OF SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION CLIMATOLOGY
IN THE REGION /LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IN 5 DAYS/...A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HEADLINE HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND CERTAIN AREAS OF EASTERN NEW YORK. THIS DOES NOT
INCLUDE THE ADIRONDACKS REGION AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ON THURSDAY AS WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND RH VALUES WILL INCREASE
TO ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED AND ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO
SPECIFIC HEADLINES WILL BE COORDINATED WITH THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS
AND UPDATED ACCORDINGLY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WORKING INTO THE REGION AS WE GO
INTO THURSDAY WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS AND NO RAINFALL
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND ALONG AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ039>041-043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM/NAS
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...LFM








000
FXUS61 KBTV 232301
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
701 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BY THURSDAY
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACRS THE NE CONUS SLOWLY LIFTING TWD EASTERN CANADA
OVERNIGHT...WITH LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING ACRS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WL SLOWLY MOVE TWD OUR REGION AFT
MIDNIGHT WITH SOME CLRING ACRS OUR WESTERN CWA. MEANWHILE...THE
COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLW AND EMBEDDED 5H VORTS WL RESULT IN
SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE MTNS TONIGHT. WL USE THE BTV
4KM AND RAP 13 TO HIGHLIGHT UPSLOPE PRECIP THIS EVENING...BUT
OVERALL QPF/SNOWFALL WL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY ACCUMULATION ABOVE 2000
FT. THINKING QPF WL BE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST. WL
MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS ACRS THE NORTHERN DACKS AND
NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS IN VT THRU 06Z...THEN TAPER OFF TWD
MORNING. SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING TONIGHT AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER
RH BTWN SFC AND 700MB RESULTING IN LOTS OF CLOUDS...SO THINKING
LOWS WL RANGE FROM UPPER 20S MTNS/SLK TO M/U 30S WARMER VALLEYS. I
REALIZE GUIDANCE FOR SLK IS AROUND 20F...BUT THIS SEEMS WAY TOO
COLD BASED ON CLOUDS/WINDS...AND CRNT SFC DWPTS IN THE M30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MAIN FCST CONCERNS WL BE FIRE WX
RELATED ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP LATE FRIDAY.
SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS REGARDING WINDS/RH`S AND
RECENT DRY SPELL ACRS PARTS OF THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF
DEPARTING SFC LOW PRES AND BUILDING HIGH PRES WL RESULT IN BREEZY
TO GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH LOCALIZED
GUSTY TO 35 MPH. SOUNDINGS SHOW TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AROUND 35
KNOTS ON THURSDAY WITH BOTTOM LAYER WINDS AROUND 30
KNOTS...SUPPORTING THIS GUSTY WINDS. STILL THINKING SOME CLOUDS WL
LINGER ACRS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL MTNS OF VT...INCLUDING THE NEK ON
THURS...BUT CLRING SKIES WL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SFC
HIGH PRES. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -2C AND -4C...SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY
IN THE M/U 40S MTNS TO L/M50S WARMER VALLEYS ON THURSDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF CLR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WITH SFC HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN COOL TEMPS THURS NIGHT. LOWS WL RANGE IN THE
20S COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO L/M 30S WARMER/WIDER CPV/SLV VALLEYS.

MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NE CONUS. FEEL INITIAL S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB RH WL DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTER
RIDGE/DRY AIR ACRS OUR REGION. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS LATE FRIDAY
AFTN ACRS OUR WESTERN CWA AND INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
BETTER DYNAMICS. TEMPS WL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND STAY
MAINLY IN THE 40S FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOOKING AT UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT CLOSES OFF OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RESULT WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
CLOUDY...COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...BLOCKING
PATTERN LOOKS TO SETUP ACROSS THE CONUS WITH AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED
LOW STALLING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD... ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
IN-BETWEEN. WHILE WE SHOULD SEE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD FOR NEXT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE ENTIRE SETUP
SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD...IF AND WHEN THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MULTI- DAY RAIN EVENT AS THE ROCKIES LOW
SHIFTS EAST AND TAPS INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE. TEMPS WILL BE
GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...BKN/OVC VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGH EARLY MORNING THURSDAY BEFORE CEILINGS SCATTER OUT LATER
IN THE DAY. SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS 10-12 KTS WITH 20-28 KT GUSTS
DROPPING OFF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE
GUSTS TO PICK BACK UP AGAIN BY AROUND 12-14Z AS MIXING COMMENCES.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CONTINUED GUSTS FROM
THE NW 00Z THRU 12Z FRI.

00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PASSAGE.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE ON THURSDAY FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW
1500 FEET ACROSS SOUTHERN VT...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE RECENT
DRY SPELL...EXPECTED BREEZY WINDS...AND LOW MIN RH VALUES.

THE LAST MEASURABLE PRECIP AT SPRINGFIELD VT ASOS WAS
4/15/14...WHEN 0.70" OCCURRED...SINCE THEN ONLY A TRACE OF PRECIP
HAS BEEN OBSERVED. SIMILAR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED AT
RUTLAND AWOS SITE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE
FINE FUELS PER LOCAL FOREST CONTACTS BELOW 1500 FEET...WHERE GREEN
UP HAS NOT OCCURRED. MEANWHILE...ABOVE 1500 FEET MOST OF THE FINE
FUELS AND LEAF LITTER IS COMPRESSED FROM RECENT SNOW PACK OR STILL
WET. MOST OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT MTNS AND PARTS OF NORTHERN NY
HAVE RECEIVED MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER THE PAST 2 TO 5 DAYS OR SNOW
PACK IS STILL ON THE GROUND ABOVE 2000 FEET...RESULTING IN LIMITED
THREAT.

BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN...PARTS OF THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...MIN AFTN RH
VALUES WL DROP BTWN 25% AND 35% BTWN 1 PM AND 5PM ON THURSDAY ACRS
THIS AREA...WITH ISOLATED READINGS OF 20% NEAR SPRINGFIELD VT
POSSIBLE.

THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL DRYING OF
GRASSES...TWIGS...AND DEBRIS SUCH AS DEAD LEAVES FROM LAST FALL AND
YOU WILL WANT TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO ANY OUTDOOR BURNING YOU MAY
BE ATTEMPTING ON THURSDAY. MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS...DO NOT LEAVE
YOUR BRUSH OR DEBRIS PILE UNATTENDED...AND HEED ANY ADVICE FROM YOUR
LOCAL FIRE WARDEN.

GIVEN THE SMALL GEOGRAPHICAL AREA WITH FAVORABLE FUEL CONDITIONS AND
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS...NO FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO PRODUCT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO
FIRE WEATHER...TABER











000
FXUS61 KALY 232037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
437 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
REGION WITH CLEARING AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. TONIGHT...A BREEZE
WILL CONTINUE AS IT CLEARS AND TURNS COLD. SUNSHINE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BUT THE BREEZE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS NOW MOVED OUT OF THE REGION. SOME LEFT OVER
SHOWERS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE
BERKSHIRES MAY LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BUT WILL CLEAR OUT AS WE
GO INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OVER LAKE HURON AND
LAKE ERIE AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT WITH AN ESTABLISHED NORTH-WESTERLY
FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH AS WE GO INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FLOW WILL USHER IN VERY CHILLY OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
NEAR 20 IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO MID AND UPPER 20S FOR THE REST OF
THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY...THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LARGE SCALE SURFACE DIVERGENCE GIVING
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. AS A DEEPENING LOW MOVES
OFF THE COAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AN
ESTABLISHED PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
DEVELOP IN THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER PARAMETERS ALSO SET UP FOR POSSIBLE FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES. PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF THE AFD FOR
FURTHER DETAILS AND FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN TO
MID AND UPPER 50S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION WITH A FEW LOWER 60S.
AS WE GO INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 5 MPH
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AND TRANQUIL
WEATHER CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL
VALUES. LOW TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S
IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO NEAR 30 IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION.

AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
EAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. WITH T850 BETWEEN
4C AND 6C AND T925 BETWEEN 8C AND 10C...WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER AND MID 60S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
EVENING...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.
LATEST 12Z MODELS AND NUMERICAL PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS NOT IN
TOTAL AGREEMENT WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND TIMING...HOWEVER THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON
FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MAY MIX WITH
OR CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM
MOVES OUT QUICKLY...AND IS FOLLOWED BY A SLOWING PATTERN...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CAROLINAS DIGGING ACROSS OUR AREA
BEGINNING WITH THE NEW WEEK.  THIS RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY WILL HEAD EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY.  THIS LOW WILL
SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY ON ITS JOURNEY...MAKING LITTLE FURTHER PROGRESS
ON WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL SPILL OUT AHEAD OF IT...
INCREASING CLOUDS AND POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  WITH THE STUBBORN
RIDGE DOWN ACROSS MAINE ON WEDNESDAY...THE ONSET OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY ACTUALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL MID-WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO MID
60S.  THESE HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES LOWER FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES THEN MODERATE SLIGHTLY EACH DAY ...WITH HIGHS BY
WEDNESDAY FROM THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 40
DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OR
SO COOLER SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODERATION THEREAFTER.  BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
AS HIGH AS 45 DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS EXITING THE AREA AND
SHOWERS AT KGFL/KALB HAVE ENDED. LINGERING SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE AT
KPSF/KPOU THROUGH AROUND 20Z...BUT KPOU WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
EVEN IF SOME -SHRA OCCUR. AT KPSF HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z. AFTER 20Z EXPECT VFR
CIGS/VSBYS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL THE TAF SITES WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 32 KTS. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT
TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 16 TO 24 KTS...THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON
THURSDAY TO 14 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 6 PM TOMORROW FOR
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EAST CENTRAL NY EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACK REGION...AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...

AN ESTABLISHED NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL BE OVER THE REGION...AS WE GO
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO AS LOW AS 15 TO 25 PERCENT AS WE GO
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE TIMING OF THESE WEATHER ELEMENTS
AND THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS OF SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION CLIMATOLOGY
IN THE REGION /LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IN 5 DAYS/...A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HEADLINE HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND CERTAIN AREAS OF EASTERN NEW YORK. THIS DOES NOT
INCLUDE THE ADIRONDACKS REGION AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ON THURSDAY AS WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND RH VALUES WILL INCREASE
TO ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED AND ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO
SPECIFIC HEADLINES WILL BE COORDINATED WITH THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS
AND UPDATED ACCORDINGLY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WORKING INTO THE REGION AS WE GO
INTO THURSDAY WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS AND NO RAINFALL
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND ALONG AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ039>041-043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...LFM








000
FXUS61 KBTV 231940
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BY THURSDAY
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACRS THE NE CONUS SLOWLY LIFTING TWD EASTERN CANADA
OVERNIGHT...WITH LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING ACRS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WL SLOWLY MOVE TWD OUR REGION AFT
MIDNIGHT WITH SOME CLRING ACRS OUR WESTERN CWA. MEANWHILE...THE
COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLW AND EMBEDDED 5H VORTS WL RESULT IN
SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE MTNS TONIGHT. WL USE THE BTV
4KM AND RAP 13 TO HIGHLIGHT UPSLOPE PRECIP THIS EVENING...BUT
OVERALL QPF/SNOWFALL WL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY ACCUMULATION ABOVE 2000
FT. THINKING QPF WL BE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST. WL
MENTION CHC TO LIKELY POPS ACRS THE NORTHERN DACKS AND
NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS IN VT THRU 06Z...THEN TAPER OFF TWD
MORNING. SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING TONIGHT AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER
RH BTWN SFC AND 700MB RESULTING IN LOTS OF CLOUDS...SO THINKING
LOWS WL RANGE FROM UPPER 20S MTNS/SLK TO M/U 30S WARMER VALLEYS. I
REALIZE GUIDANCE FOR SLK IS AROUND 20F...BUT THIS SEEMS WAY TOO
COLD BASED ON CLOUDS/WINDS...AND CRNT SFC DWPTS IN THE M30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MAIN FCST CONCERNS WL BE FIRE WX
RELATED ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP LATE FRIDAY.
SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS REGARDING WINDS/RH`S AND
RECENT DRY SPELL ACRS PARTS OF THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF
DEPARTING SFC LOW PRES AND BUILDING HIGH PRES WL RESULT IN BREEZY
TO GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH LOCALIZED
GUSTY TO 35 MPH. SOUNDINGS SHOW TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AROUND 35
KNOTS ON THURSDAY WITH BOTTOM LAYER WINDS AROUND 30
KNOTS...SUPPORTING THIS GUSTY WINDS. STILL THINKING SOME CLOUDS WL
LINGER ACRS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL MTNS OF VT...INCLUDING THE NEK ON
THURS...BUT CLRING SKIES WL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SFC
HIGH PRES. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -2C AND -4C...SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY
IN THE M/U 40S MTNS TO L/M50S WARMER VALLEYS ON THURSDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF CLR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WITH SFC HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN COOL TEMPS THURS NIGHT. LOWS WL RANGE IN THE
20S COLDER MTN VALLEYS TO L/M 30S WARMER/WIDER CPV/SLV VALLEYS.

MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NE CONUS. FEEL INITIAL S/W ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB RH WL DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTER
RIDGE/DRY AIR ACRS OUR REGION. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS LATE FRIDAY
AFTN ACRS OUR WESTERN CWA AND INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
BETTER DYNAMICS. TEMPS WL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND STAY
MAINLY IN THE 40S FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOOKING AT UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT CLOSES OFF OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RESULT WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
CLOUDY...COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...BLOCKING
PATTERN LOOKS TO SETUP ACROSS THE CONUS WITH AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED
LOW STALLING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD... ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
IN-BETWEEN. WHILE WE SHOULD SEE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD FOR NEXT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE ENTIRE SETUP
SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD...IF AND WHEN THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MULTI- DAY RAIN EVENT AS THE ROCKIES LOW
SHIFTS EAST AND TAPS INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE. TEMPS WILL BE
GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH
THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A DEPARTING UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KMSS/KBTV/KPBG WHILE
MVFR WILL REMAIN AT KRUT THROUGH 00Z...AND THROUGH 12Z AT
KSLK/KMPV. RADAR SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH MAY SEE SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS/DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. HAVE
LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY. AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AREA-WIDE WITH SKC-SCT CIGS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND BUILDING HIGH SO
NW WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK...GUSTING 20-30KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU THRU 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CONTINUED
GUSTS FROM THE NW 18Z THU THRU 12Z FRI.

00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PASSAGE.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE ON THURSDAY FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW
1500 FEET ACROSS SOUTHERN VT...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE RECENT
DRY SPELL...EXPECTED BREEZY WINDS...AND LOW MIN RH VALUES.

THE LAST MEASURABLE PRECIP AT SPRINGFIELD VT ASOS WAS
4/15/14...WHEN 0.70" OCCURRED...SINCE THEN ONLY A TRACE OF PRECIP
HAS BEEN OBSERVED. SIMILAR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED AT
RUTLAND AWOS SITE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE
FINE FUELS PER LOCAL FOREST CONTACTS BELOW 1500 FEET...WHERE GREEN
UP HAS NOT OCCURRED. MEANWHILE...ABOVE 1500 FEET MOST OF THE FINE
FUELS AND LEAF LITTER IS COMPRESSED FROM RECENT SNOW PACK OR STILL
WET. MOST OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT MTNS AND PARTS OF NORTHERN NY
HAVE RECEIVED MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER THE PAST 2 TO 5 DAYS OR SNOW
PACK IS STILL ON THE GROUND ABOVE 2000 FEET...RESULTING IN LIMITED
THREAT.

BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN...PARTS OF THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...MIN AFTN RH
VALUES WL DROP BTWN 25% AND 35% BTWN 1 PM AND 5PM ON THURSDAY ACRS
THIS AREA...WITH ISOLATED READINGS OF 20% NEAR SPRINGFIELD VT
POSSIBLE.

THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL DRYING OF
GRASSES...TWIGS...AND DEBRIS SUCH AS DEAD LEAVES FROM LAST FALL AND
YOU WILL WANT TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO ANY OUTDOOR BURNING YOU MAY
BE ATTEMPTING ON THURSDAY. MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS...DO NOT LEAVE
YOUR BRUSH OR DEBRIS PILE UNATTENDED...AND HEED ANY ADVICE FROM YOUR
LOCAL FIRE WARDEN.

GIVEN THE SMALL GEOGRAPHICAL AREA WITH FAVORABLE FUEL CONDITIONS AND
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS...NO FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO PRODUCT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
FIRE WEATHER...TABER









000
FXUS61 KBTV 231930
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
TONIGHT...PRODUCING CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA FOR THURSDAY AND REMAINING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE
REGION RIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 127 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO REDUCE POPS ACRS THE
CPV/CT RIVER VALLEY AND PARTS OF NORTHERN NY. CRNT RADAR AND
SUMMIT WEB CAMS SHOW VERY LIGHT PRECIP FALLING WITH FREEZING LVL
AROUND 3000 FT. BOTH RAP AND BTV 4KM CONT TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTN/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE FLW. HOWEVER...SFC DWPTS CONT TO DRY WITH READINGS IN THE
20S/30S WHICH WL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF PRECIP TODAY.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE HOLDING IN THE U30S MTNS TO U40S WARMER VALLEYS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WITH SFC LOW SHIFTING TO THE NE...UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SETTING THE AREA UP FOR N/NW
FLOW TODAY. FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER HIGHER TRRN DUE TO
UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE VALLEY WARM
ENOUGH FOR -SHRA. BUT HIGHER TRRN WILL SEE SOME RASN MIX. WINDS
MAY ALSO BECM GUSTY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY AS 40-50KT JET
AT 850MB EXTENDS INTO THE SRN 2/3 OF THE FA. EXPECT QPF AMTS
AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...WITH ABOUT AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL PSBL OVER THE HIGHER TRRN.

PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY LATE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS LOOK TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNGT ACROSS THE
NEK.

CLOUDY SKIES FROM LLVL MOISTURE AND UPPER LVL TROUGH TRAVERSING
THE AREA...ALONG WITH COOLER N/NW FLOW WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE
40S-L50S IN THE VALLEYS AND 30S AT THE SUMMITS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIP CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING...LINGERING MOSTLY IN THE NEK IN THE FORM OF RASN MIX AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE L-M30S IN THE VALLEYS AND 20S IN THE HIGHER
TRRN.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGING
COINCIDING WILL LEAD TO 925MB TEMPS INCREASING TO 2C-3C THURSDAY.
GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES BUT CONTINUED N/NW FLOW WILL SEE MAX
TEMPS IN THE U40S-M50S IN THE VALLEYS AND U30S-L40S IN THE HIGHER
TRRN.

RIDGING WILL ALSO PUSH WEDNESDAYS 850MB JET EWD...AT 30-45KTS
OVER SRN AND ERN VT. CLOSER TO THE SFC...925MB WINDS FOR THIS
AREA AROUND 28-35KTS. WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AND GUSTY WINDS
PSBL...FINER FUELS WILL DRY MAINLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF
FA...BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH QPF RESULTS
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THURSDAY NGT...WINDS SUBSIDE WITH RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE REGION
AND CLEAR SKIES RESULTING IN COLD OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS...20S-L30S.
WARMTH REBOUNDS ON FRIDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING 7C-9C IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NGT. MAX TEMPS WILL SEE U50S-L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LOOKING AT UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT CLOSES OFF OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RESULT WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
CLOUDY...COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...BLOCKING
PATTERN LOOKS TO SETUP ACROSS THE CONUS WITH AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED
LOW STALLING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD... ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
IN-BETWEEN. WHILE WE SHOULD SEE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD FOR NEXT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE ENTIRE SETUP
SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD...IF AND WHEN THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MULTI- DAY RAIN EVENT AS THE ROCKIES LOW
SHIFTS EAST AND TAPS INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE. TEMPS WILL BE
GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH
THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A DEPARTING UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KMSS/KBTV/KPBG WHILE
MVFR WILL REMAIN AT KRUT THROUGH 00Z...AND THROUGH 12Z AT
KSLK/KMPV. RADAR SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH MAY SEE SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS/DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. HAVE
LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY. AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AREA-WIDE WITH SKC-SCT CIGS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND BUILDING HIGH SO
NW WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK...GUSTING 20-30KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU THRU 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CONTINUED
GUSTS FROM THE NW 18Z THU THRU 12Z FRI.

00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PASSAGE.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN SKIES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/JN
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF








000
FXUS61 KBTV 231732
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
132 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
TONIGHT...PRODUCING CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA FOR THURSDAY AND REMAINING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE
REGION RIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 127 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO REDUCE POPS ACRS THE
CPV/CT RIVER VALLEY AND PARTS OF NORTHERN NY. CRNT RADAR AND
SUMMIT WEB CAMS SHOW VERY LIGHT PRECIP FALLING WITH FREEZING LVL
AROUND 3000 FT. BOTH RAP AND BTV 4KM CONT TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTN/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE FLW. HOWEVER...SFC DWPTS CONT TO DRY WITH READINGS IN THE
20S/30S WHICH WL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF PRECIP TODAY.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS ARE HOLDING IN THE U30S MTNS TO U40S WARMER VALLEYS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WITH SFC LOW SHIFTING TO THE NE...UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SETTING THE AREA UP FOR N/NW
FLOW TODAY. FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER HIGHER TRRN DUE TO
UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE VALLEY WARM
ENOUGH FOR -SHRA. BUT HIGHER TRRN WILL SEE SOME RASN MIX. WINDS
MAY ALSO BECM GUSTY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY AS 40-50KT JET
AT 850MB EXTENDS INTO THE SRN 2/3 OF THE FA. EXPECT QPF AMTS
AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...WITH ABOUT AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL PSBL OVER THE HIGHER TRRN.

PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY LATE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS LOOK TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNGT ACROSS THE
NEK.

CLOUDY SKIES FROM LLVL MOISTURE AND UPPER LVL TROUGH TRAVERSING
THE AREA...ALONG WITH COOLER N/NW FLOW WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE
40S-L50S IN THE VALLEYS AND 30S AT THE SUMMITS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIP CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING...LINGERING MOSTLY IN THE NEK IN THE FORM OF RASN MIX AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE L-M30S IN THE VALLEYS AND 20S IN THE HIGHER
TRRN.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGING
COINCIDING WILL LEAD TO 925MB TEMPS INCREASING TO 2C-3C THURSDAY.
GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES BUT CONTINUED N/NW FLOW WILL SEE MAX
TEMPS IN THE U40S-M50S IN THE VALLEYS AND U30S-L40S IN THE HIGHER
TRRN.

RIDGING WILL ALSO PUSH WEDNESDAYS 850MB JET EWD...AT 30-45KTS
OVER SRN AND ERN VT. CLOSER TO THE SFC...925MB WINDS FOR THIS
AREA AROUND 28-35KTS. WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AND GUSTY WINDS
PSBL...FINER FUELS WILL DRY MAINLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF
FA...BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH QPF RESULTS
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THURSDAY NGT...WINDS SUBSIDE WITH RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE REGION
AND CLEAR SKIES RESULTING IN COLD OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS...20S-L30S.
WARMTH REBOUNDS ON FRIDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING 7C-9C IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NGT. MAX TEMPS WILL SEE U50S-L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 455 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW MOISTURE
FROM A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT... SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS UP TO LIKELY. ON SATURDAY...ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. GFS IS MUCH SHARPER WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF MODEL AND ALSO HAS THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF
HAS THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC ON SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. AREA TO REMAIN
UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ON SUNDAY...SO WILL KEEP IN SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY FOR SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SUGGESTING
A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT ON
MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS...LEADING TO LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR TUESDAY. GFS
MODEL HAS THE REGION IN AN OMEGA BLOCK ON TUESDAY WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD MEAN A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...ECMWF MODEL HAS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW ON TUESDAY WELL SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND...WITH AN
OPEN TROUGH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW
FOR MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES...FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH
THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A DEPARTING UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KMSS/KBTV/KPBG WHILE
MVFR WILL REMAIN AT KRUT THROUGH 00Z...AND THROUGH 12Z AT
KSLK/KMPV. RADAR SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH MAY SEE SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS/DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. HAVE
LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY. AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AREA-WIDE WITH SKC-SCT CIGS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND BUILDING HIGH SO
NW WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK...GUSTING 20-30KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU THRU 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CONTINUED
GUSTS FROM THE NW 18Z THU THRU 12Z FRI.

00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PASSAGE.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN SKIES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/JN
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...LAHIFF









000
FXUS61 KBTV 231726
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
126 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
TONIGHT...PRODUCING CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA FOR THURSDAY AND REMAINING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE
REGION RIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1012 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST TEMPS DOWN
SEVERAL DEGREES ACRS NORTHERN NY INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT AND CONT
TO MENTION LIKELY POPS...ESPECIALLY MTNS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL TROF WITH ENHANCED RIBBON OF MID LVL RH
MOVING ACRS NORTHERN NY ATTM. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LLVL CAA
AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLW WL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
THIS AFTN ACRS THE WESTERN SLOPES AND NORTHERN DACKS. THERMAL
PROFILES SHOW 85H TEMPS NEAR -2C THIS MORNING...BUT COOL TO -6C TO
-8C BY TONIGHT...SUPPORTING A DROP IN SNOW LVLS TO 1500 FEET
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...BEST RH WL BE DECREASING AS AIR BECOMES COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW IN THE LWR ELEVATIONS. STILL ANTICIPATING SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET THIS
AFTN AND DROPPING BTWN 1500 AND 2200 FEET OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WL HOLD MAINLY IN THE 30S MTNS AND 40S VALLEYS
TODAY WITH LWR CT RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF REACHING THE LWR 50S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WITH SFC LOW SHIFTING TO THE NE...UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SETTING THE AREA UP FOR N/NW
FLOW TODAY. FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER HIGHER TRRN DUE TO
UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE VALLEY WARM
ENOUGH FOR -SHRA. BUT HIGHER TRRN WILL SEE SOME RASN MIX. WINDS
MAY ALSO BECM GUSTY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY AS 40-50KT JET
AT 850MB EXTENDS INTO THE SRN 2/3 OF THE FA. EXPECT QPF AMTS
AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...WITH ABOUT AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL PSBL OVER THE HIGHER TRRN.

PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY LATE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS LOOK TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNGT ACROSS THE
NEK.

CLOUDY SKIES FROM LLVL MOISTURE AND UPPER LVL TROUGH TRAVERSING
THE AREA...ALONG WITH COOLER N/NW FLOW WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE
40S-L50S IN THE VALLEYS AND 30S AT THE SUMMITS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIP CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING...LINGERING MOSTLY IN THE NEK IN THE FORM OF RASN MIX AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE L-M30S IN THE VALLEYS AND 20S IN THE HIGHER
TRRN.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGING
COINCIDING WILL LEAD TO 925MB TEMPS INCREASING TO 2C-3C THURSDAY.
GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES BUT CONTINUED N/NW FLOW WILL SEE MAX
TEMPS IN THE U40S-M50S IN THE VALLEYS AND U30S-L40S IN THE HIGHER
TRRN.

RIDGING WILL ALSO PUSH WEDNESDAYS 850MB JET EWD...AT 30-45KTS
OVER SRN AND ERN VT. CLOSER TO THE SFC...925MB WINDS FOR THIS
AREA AROUND 28-35KTS. WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AND GUSTY WINDS
PSBL...FINER FUELS WILL DRY MAINLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF
FA...BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH QPF RESULTS
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THURSDAY NGT...WINDS SUBSIDE WITH RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE REGION
AND CLEAR SKIES RESULTING IN COLD OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS...20S-L30S.
WARMTH REBOUNDS ON FRIDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING 7C-9C IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NGT. MAX TEMPS WILL SEE U50S-L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 455 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW MOISTURE
FROM A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT... SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS UP TO LIKELY. ON SATURDAY...ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. GFS IS MUCH SHARPER WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF MODEL AND ALSO HAS THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF
HAS THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC ON SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. AREA TO REMAIN
UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ON SUNDAY...SO WILL KEEP IN SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY FOR SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SUGGESTING
A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT ON
MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS...LEADING TO LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR TUESDAY. GFS
MODEL HAS THE REGION IN AN OMEGA BLOCK ON TUESDAY WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD MEAN A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...ECMWF MODEL HAS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW ON TUESDAY WELL SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND...WITH AN
OPEN TROUGH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW
FOR MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES...FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH
THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A DEPARTING UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KMSS/KBTV/KPBG WHILE
MVFR WILL REMAIN AT KRUT THROUGH 00Z...AND THROUGH 12Z AT
KSLK/KMPV. RADAR SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH MAY SEE SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS/DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. HAVE
LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY. AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AREA-WIDE WITH SKC-SCT CIGS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND BUILDING HIGH SO
NW WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK...GUSTING 20-30KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU THRU 00Z SAT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CONTINUED
GUSTS FROM THE NW 18Z THU THRU 12Z FRI.

00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF MVFR SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PASSAGE.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN SKIES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/JN
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...LAHIFF








000
FXUS61 KALY 231719
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
120 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
REGION WITH A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE IMMEDIATE
CAPITAL REGION AS WE GO INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE IT
WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY. TONIGHT A BREEZE WILL CONTINUE AS IT CLEARS
AND TURNS COLD. SUNSHINE WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BUT
THE BREEZE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM...RAIN SHOWERS ARE NOW IN MUCH LESS COVERAGE ACROSS THE
REGION THAN EARLIER THIS MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS
AREAS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND THE
LITCHFIELD HILLS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OUT
OF THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE FROM THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION POINTS NORTH AND WEST.
HOWEVER CLOUD COVERAGE WILL HAVE A FIRM GRIP ACROSS THE REGION
GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...MID 50S MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD WITH A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...GUSTING UP TO 30-40 MPH
BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS IN THE USUAL PLACES OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT...HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL MOVE BY WELL TO OUR EAST TONIGHT...BUT IT
WILL "CAPTURE" A SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS PROCESS WILL
STEEPEN THE GRADIENT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH
MORE WIND. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN -4 TO -8 C
OVERNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL NOT DECOUPLE...IT WILL TURN
COLD AS THE SKY GENERALLY CLEARS. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND
30 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 20S VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE WIND WILL
ADD TO THE CHILL...MAKING APPARENT TEMPERATURES FEEL ABOUT 10
DEGREES COLDER.

THURSDAY WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE TOWARD 0C. THE STIFF BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE...AVERAGING 10 TO 15 MPH ONCE MORE...WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 30 MPH OR BETTER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE...CLIMBING TO 55 TO 60 DEGREES IN MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE OCEAN STORM WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO
LOOSE IT GRIP ON OUR REGION. THE WIND WILL RELAX. THERE MIGHT BE
SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING LATE BUT EITHER WAY...THERE WILL BE MORE
OPPORTUNITY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...DESPITE CONTINUED WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TONIGHT/S
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

FRIDAY...THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAST THAT
RAIN FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM...A WARM FRONT...WILL REACH THE AREA. THE
00Z GFS AND NAM WERE A LITTLE FASTER BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION
BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY. THE 00Z EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN
MODELS ON THE OTHER HAND...WERE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH RAIN NOT
REACHING OUR AREA UNTIL AFTER DARK.

FOR NOW...WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS...LOWING CHANCES
TO SLIGHT FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH LOW CHANCES TO THE
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW FAST RAIN SPREADS INTO THE REGION
WILL HELP DICTATE HOW MILD IT GETS. FOR NOW...WE KEPT THE THINKING
THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH AROUND 60 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
VALLEYS FURTHER EAST...WHILE HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
EAST AS WELL. IF THE RAIN WERE TO COME IN FASTER...THESE NUMBERS
WOULD LIKELY HAVE TO BE LOWERED A LITTLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS 00Z
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKING
PATTERN THAT WILL LIKELY LAST INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

WE BEGIN THE WEEKEND WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.  THIS WOULD PLACE
THE HIGHER CHC-SCT POPS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.
THEREAFTER...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS LATEST NEW TRENDS ARE FOR A
NOW A DRIER SUNDAY AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE WILL LOWER POPS THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP BELOW 0C WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE
EXPECTED.  THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF
THIS LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF REMAINS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A LESS PRONOUNCED RIDGE OVER THE REGION WHEN
COMPARED TO THE GGEM/GFS/DGEX WHICH WOULD BRING HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
WET CONDITIONS.  FOR NOW...WITH A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING AND A DEEPER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ADVECTING NORTHWARD...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WE LEAN TOWARD THE
ECMWF/WPC GUIDANCE /SEE PMDEPD FOR FURTHER DETAILS/.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS EXITING THE AREA AND
SHOWERS AT KGFL/KALB HAVE ENDED. LINGERING SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE AT
KPSF/KPOU THROUGH AROUND 20Z...BUT KPOU WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
EVEN IF SOME -SHRA OCCUR. AT KPSF HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z. AFTER 20Z EXPECT VFR
CIGS/VSBYS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL THE TAF SITES WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 32 KTS. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT
TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 16 TO 24 KTS...THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON
THURSDAY TO 14 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30-45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

     WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY...

WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT...AS OF 430 AM EDT...MOST AREAS DID NOT COME CLOSE TO
REACHING A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY AS AN
UPPER AIR LOW MOVES THROUGH EARLY...EXITING LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THESE SHOWERS (EVEN WHEN COMBINED WITH
THOSE OF LAST NIGHT) WILL ADD UP TO A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF
RAINFALL.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT...GENERALLY IN THE 35-50 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL DIMINISH TO A BREEZE TONIGHT BUT IN MOST
PLACES...WILL NOT BECOME LIGHT. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH THOSE HIGHER EVENING GUSTS. A FULL RECOVER IS NOT GOING TO
HAPPEN TONIGHT AS RH VALUES PEAK AROUND 75 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES.

THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SUNSHINE WILL
PREVAIL AND TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH ABOVE 50F (EXCEPT IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT). A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL STILL
BE THERE...GUSTING 25-35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RH VALUES LOOK TO TUMBLE INTO THE 20S MOST AREAS (AROUND 30 SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND ADIRONDACKS) BUT MIGHT EVEN DIP INTO THE TEENS IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD. IT WILL BE MORE THAN FIVE
DAYS WITHOUT A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION.


OUR OFFICE WILL COORDINATE WITH THE STATE LIAISON OFFICIALS
CONCERNING ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED BY WED AFTN. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THU-THU NT...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO
SAT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH WED AM. THESE RAINFALL
AMTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL











000
FXUS61 KALY 231701
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
101 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
N UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
REGION WITH A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE IMMEDIATE
CAPITAL REGION AS WE GO INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE IT
WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY. TONIGHT A BREEZE WILL CONTINUE AS IT CLEARS
AND TURNS COLD. SUNSHINE WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BUT
THE BREEZE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM...RAIN SHOWERS ARE NOW IN MUCH LESS COVERAGE ACROSS THE
REGION THAN EARLIER THIS MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS
AREAS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND THE
LITCHFIELD HILLS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OUT
OF THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE FROM THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION POINTS NORTH AND WEST.
HOWEVER CLOUD COVERAGE WILL HAVE A FIRM GRIP ACROSS THE REGION
GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...MID 50S MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD WITH A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...GUSTING UP TO 30-40 MPH
BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS IN THE USUAL PLACES OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT...HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL MOVE BY WELL TO OUR EAST TONIGHT...BUT IT
WILL "CAPTURE" A SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS PROCESS WILL
STEEPEN THE GRADIENT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH
MORE WIND. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN -4 TO -8 C
OVERNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL NOT DECOUPLE...IT WILL TURN
COLD AS THE SKY GENERALLY CLEARS. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND
30 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 20S VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE WIND WILL
ADD TO THE CHILL...MAKING APPARENT TEMPERATURES FEEL ABOUT 10
DEGREES COLDER.

THURSDAY WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE TOWARD 0C. THE STIFF BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE...AVERAGING 10 TO 15 MPH ONCE MORE...WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 30 MPH OR BETTER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE...CLIMBING TO 55 TO 60 DEGREES IN MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE OCEAN STORM WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO LOOSE IT
GRIP ON OUR REGION. THE WIND WILL RELAX. THERE MIGHT BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING LATE BUT EITHER WAY...THERE WILL BE MORE
OPPORTUNITY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...DESPITE CONTINUED WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TONIGHT/S
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

FRIDAY...THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAST THAT
RAIN FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM...A WARM FRONT...WILL REACH THE AREA. THE
00Z GFS AND NAM WERE A LITTLE FASTER BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION
BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY. THE 00Z EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN
MODELS ON THE OTHER HAND...WERE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH RAIN NOT
REACHING OUR AREA UNTIL AFTER DARK.

FOR NOW...WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS...LOWING CHANCES
TO SLIGHT FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH LOW CHANCES TO THE
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW FAST RAIN SPREADS INTO THE REGION
WILL HELP DICTATE HOW MILD IT GETS. FOR NOW...WE KEPT THE THINKING
THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH AROUND 60 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
VALLEYS FURTHER EAST...WHILE HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
EAST AS WELL. IF THE RAIN WERE TO COME IN FASTER...THESE NUMBERS
WOULD LIKELY HAVE TO BE LOWERED A LITTLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS 00Z
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKING
PATTERN THAT WILL LIKELY LAST INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

WE BEGIN THE WEEKEND WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.  THIS WOULD PLACE
THE HIGHER CHC-SCT POPS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.
THEREAFTER...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS LATEST NEW TRENDS ARE FOR A
NOW A DRIER SUNDAY AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE WILL LOWER POPS THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP BELOW 0C WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE
EXPECTED.  THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF
THIS LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF REMAINS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A LESS PRONOUNCED RIDGE OVER THE REGION WHEN
COMPARED TO THE GGEM/GFS/DGEX WHICH WOULD BRING HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
WET CONDITIONS.  FOR NOW...WITH A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING AND A DEEPER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ADVECTING NORTHWARD...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WE LEAN TOWARD THE
ECMWF/WPC GUIDANCE /SEE PMDEPD FOR FURTHER DETAILS/.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
INCREASING WINDS...MVFR CIGS AND COVERAGE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
THE MAIN THEMES FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

MAIN UPPER LOW WAS JUST MOVING EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER THIS EARLY
MORNING.  UPON ITS PASSAGE...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
THOSE MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST WITH A GRADUAL LIFTING OF THOSE CIGS
THROUGH THE DAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING CLIMBS.  THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE KPSF WHERE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WHERE MVFR CIGS
SHOULD PREVAIL.

WIND MAGNITUDES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND THAT AFOREMENTIONED MIXING LAYER CLIMBS.  GUSTS APPROACHING
30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30-45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

     WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY...

WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT...AS OF 430 AM EDT...MOST AREAS DID NOT COME CLOSE TO
REACHING A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY AS AN
UPPER AIR LOW MOVES THROUGH EARLY...EXITING LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THESE SHOWERS (EVEN WHEN COMBINED WITH
THOSE OF LAST NIGHT) WILL ADD UP TO A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF
RAINFALL.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT...GENERALLY IN THE 35-50 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL DIMINISH TO A BREEZE TONIGHT BUT IN MOST
PLACES...WILL NOT BECOME LIGHT. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH THOSE HIGHER EVENING GUSTS. A FULL RECOVER IS NOT GOING TO
HAPPEN TONIGHT AS RH VALUES PEAK AROUND 75 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES.

THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SUNSHINE WILL
PREVAIL AND TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH ABOVE 50F (EXCEPT IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT). A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL STILL BE
THERE...GUSTING 25-35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH
VALUES LOOK TO TUMBLE INTO THE 20S MOST AREAS (AROUND 30 SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND ADIRONDACKS) BUT MIGHT EVEN DIP INTO THE TEENS IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD. IT WILL BE MORE THAN FIVE
DAYS WITHOUT A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION.


OUR OFFICE WILL COORDINATE WITH THE STATE LIAISON OFFICIALS
CONCERNING ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED BY WED AFTN. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THU-THU NT...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO
SAT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH WED AM. THESE RAINFALL
AMTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL








000
FXUS61 KBTV 231422
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1022 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
TONIGHT...PRODUCING CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA FOR THURSDAY AND REMAINING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE
REGION RIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1012 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST TEMPS DOWN
SEVERAL DEGREES ACRS NORTHERN NY INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT AND CONT
TO MENTION LIKELY POPS...ESPECIALLY MTNS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL TROF WITH ENHANCED RIBBON OF MID LVL RH
MOVING ACRS NORTHERN NY ATTM. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LLVL CAA
AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLW WL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
THIS AFTN ACRS THE WESTERN SLOPES AND NORTHERN DACKS. THERMAL
PROFILES SHOW 85H TEMPS NEAR -2C THIS MORNING...BUT COOL TO -6C TO
-8C BY TONIGHT...SUPPORTING A DROP IN SNOW LVLS TO 1500 FEET
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...BEST RH WL BE DECREASING AS AIR BECOMES COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW IN THE LWR ELEVATIONS. STILL ANTICIPATING SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET THIS
AFTN AND DROPPING BTWN 1500 AND 2200 FEET OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WL HOLD MAINLY IN THE 30S MTNS AND 40S VALLEYS
TODAY WITH LWR CT RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF REACHING THE LWR 50S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WITH SFC LOW SHIFTING TO THE NE...UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SETTING THE AREA UP FOR N/NW
FLOW TODAY. FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER HIGHER TRRN DUE TO
UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE VALLEY WARM
ENOUGH FOR -SHRA. BUT HIGHER TRRN WILL SEE SOME RASN MIX. WINDS
MAY ALSO BECM GUSTY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY AS 40-50KT JET
AT 850MB EXTENDS INTO THE SRN 2/3 OF THE FA. EXPECT QPF AMTS
AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...WITH ABOUT AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL PSBL OVER THE HIGHER TRRN.

PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY LATE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS LOOK TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNGT ACROSS THE
NEK.

CLOUDY SKIES FROM LLVL MOISTURE AND UPPER LVL TROUGH TRAVERSING
THE AREA...ALONG WITH COOLER N/NW FLOW WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE
40S-L50S IN THE VALLEYS AND 30S AT THE SUMMITS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIP CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING...LINGERING MOSTLY IN THE NEK IN THE FORM OF RASN MIX AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE L-M30S IN THE VALLEYS AND 20S IN THE HIGHER
TRRN.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGING
COINCIDING WILL LEAD TO 925MB TEMPS INCREASING TO 2C-3C THURSDAY.
GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES BUT CONTINUED N/NW FLOW WILL SEE MAX
TEMPS IN THE U40S-M50S IN THE VALLEYS AND U30S-L40S IN THE HIGHER
TRRN.

RIDGING WILL ALSO PUSH WEDNESDAYS 850MB JET EWD...AT 30-45KTS
OVER SRN AND ERN VT. CLOSER TO THE SFC...925MB WINDS FOR THIS
AREA AROUND 28-35KTS. WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AND GUSTY WINDS
PSBL...FINER FUELS WILL DRY MAINLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF
FA...BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH QPF RESULTS
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THURSDAY NGT...WINDS SUBSIDE WITH RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE REGION
AND CLEAR SKIES RESULTING IN COLD OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS...20S-L30S.
WARMTH REBOUNDS ON FRIDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING 7C-9C IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NGT. MAX TEMPS WILL SEE U50S-L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 455 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW MOISTURE
FROM A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT... SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS UP TO LIKELY. ON SATURDAY...ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. GFS IS MUCH SHARPER WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF MODEL AND ALSO HAS THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF
HAS THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC ON SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. AREA TO REMAIN
UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ON SUNDAY...SO WILL KEEP IN SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY FOR SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SUGGESTING
A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT ON
MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS...LEADING TO LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR TUESDAY. GFS
MODEL HAS THE REGION IN AN OMEGA BLOCK ON TUESDAY WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD MEAN A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...ECMWF MODEL HAS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW ON TUESDAY WELL SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND...WITH AN
OPEN TROUGH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW
FOR MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES...FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING AN UPPER
TROUGH AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SO
EXPECTING NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS TO
DEVELOP AFTER 14Z WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO FRIDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE
FRIDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS. SUNDAY...MAINLY
VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/JN
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/TABER









000
FXUS61 KALY 231302
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
902 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED
TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY MIX
IN ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN GREENS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS
WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
BLUSTERY TODAY. TONIGHT A BREEZE WILL CONTINUE AS IT CLEARS AND
TURNS COLD. SUNSHINE WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BUT THE
BREEZE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 900 AM EDT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS HAVE BLOSSOMED IN
EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A COMPACT
UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING.
RADAR INDICATING SOME MODERATE BURSTS OF RAINFALL JUST WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION AT THIS HOUR. WILL RAISE POPS TO
BETWEEN 60-80 PERCENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA FOR
THE REST OF THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY.
SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AS THE
UPPER LOW QUICKLY PULLS AWAY. WILL DECREASE POPS TO CHANCE RANGE
AFTER 1 PM.

MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE RAIN. HOWEVER...IT MIGHT BE JUST
COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
GREENS...ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS. ANY SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY
REAL ACCUMULATIONS...MAYBE A COATING ON SOME GRASSY AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SUNSHINE IN THE VALLEYS AREAS
ESPECIALLY TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS...LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM OUR REGION BY LATE IN THE
DAY. DUE TO COOL AIR AND ALOFT THERE STILL COULD BE FEW SHOWERS
LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...MID 50S MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD WITH A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...GUSTING UP TO 30-40 MPH
BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS IN THE USUAL PLACES OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT...HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL MOVE BY WELL TO OUR EAST TONIGHT...BUT IT
WILL "CAPTURE" A SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS PROCESS WILL
STEEPEN THE GRADIENT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH
MORE WIND. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN -4 TO -8 C
OVERNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL NOT DECOUPLE...IT WILL TURN
COLD AS THE SKY GENERALLY CLEARS. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND
30 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 20S VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE WIND WILL
ADD TO THE CHILL...MAKING APPARENT TEMPERATURES FEEL ABOUT 10
DEGREES COLDER.

THURSDAY WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE TOWARD 0C. THE STIFF BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE...AVERAGING 10 TO 15 MPH ONCE MORE...WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 30 MPH OR BETTER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE...CLIMBING TO 55 TO 60 DEGREES IN MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE OCEAN STORM WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO LOOSE IT
GRIP ON OUR REGION. THE WIND WILL RELAX. THERE MIGHT BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING LATE BUT EITHER WAY...THERE WILL BE MORE
OPPORTUNITY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...DESPITE CONTINUED WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TONIGHT/S
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

FRIDAY...THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAST THAT
RAIN FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM...A WARM FRONT...WILL REACH THE AREA. THE
00Z GFS AND NAM WERE A LITTLE FASTER BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION
BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY. THE 00Z EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN
MODELS ON THE OTHER HAND...WERE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH RAIN NOT
REACHING OUR AREA UNTIL AFTER DARK.

FOR NOW...WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS...LOWING CHANCES
TO SLIGHT FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH LOW CHANCES TO THE
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW FAST RAIN SPREADS INTO THE REGION
WILL HELP DICTATE HOW MILD IT GETS. FOR NOW...WE KEPT THE THINKING
THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH AROUND 60 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
VALLEYS FURTHER EAST...WHILE HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
EAST AS WELL. IF THE RAIN WERE TO COME IN FASTER...THESE NUMBERS
WOULD LIKELY HAVE TO BE LOWERED A LITTLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS 00Z
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKING
PATTERN THAT WILL LIKELY LAST INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

WE BEGIN THE WEEKEND WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.  THIS WOULD PLACE
THE HIGHER CHC-SCT POPS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.
THEREAFTER...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS LATEST NEW TRENDS ARE FOR A
NOW A DRIER SUNDAY AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE WILL LOWER POPS THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP BELOW 0C WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE
EXPECTED.  THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF
THIS LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF REMAINS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A LESS PRONOUNCED RIDGE OVER THE REGION WHEN
COMPARED TO THE GGEM/GFS/DGEX WHICH WOULD BRING HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
WET CONDITIONS.  FOR NOW...WITH A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING AND A DEEPER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ADVECTING NORTHWARD...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WE LEAN TOWARD THE
ECMWF/WPC GUIDANCE /SEE PMDEPD FOR FURTHER DETAILS/.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING WINDS...MVFR CIGS AND COVERAGE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
THE MAIN THEMES FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

MAIN UPPER LOW WAS JUST MOVING EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER THIS EARLY
MORNING.  UPON ITS PASSAGE...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
THOSE MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST WITH A GRADUAL LIFTING OF THOSE CIGS
THROUGH THE DAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING CLIMBS.  THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE KPSF WHERE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WHERE MVFR CIGS
SHOULD PREVAIL.

WIND MAGNITUDES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND THAT AFOREMENTIONED MIXING LAYER CLIMBS.  GUSTS APPROACHING
30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30-45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

     WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY...

WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT...AS OF 430 AM EDT...MOST AREAS DID NOT COME CLOSE TO
REACHING A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY AS AN
UPPER AIR LOW MOVES THROUGH EARLY...EXITING LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THESE SHOWERS (EVEN WHEN COMBINED WITH
THOSE OF LAST NIGHT) WILL ADD UP TO A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF
RAINFALL.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT...GENERALLY IN THE 35-50 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL DIMINISH TO A BREEZE TONIGHT BUT IN MOST
PLACES...WILL NOT BECOME LIGHT. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH THOSE HIGHER EVENING GUSTS. A FULL RECOVER IS NOT GOING TO
HAPPEN TONIGHT AS RH VALUES PEAK AROUND 75 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES.

THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SUNSHINE WILL
PREVAIL AND TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH ABOVE 50F (EXCEPT IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT). A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL STILL BE
THERE...GUSTING 25-35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH
VALUES LOOK TO TUMBLE INTO THE 20S MOST AREAS (AROUND 30 SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND ADIRONDACKS) BUT MIGHT EVEN DIP INTO THE TEENS IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD. IT WILL BE MORE THAN FIVE
DAYS WITHOUT A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION.


OUR OFFICE WILL COORDINATE WITH THE STATE LIAISON OFFICIALS
CONCERNING ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED BY WED AFTN. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THU-THU NT...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO
SAT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH WED AM. THESE RAINFALL
AMTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL








000
FXUS61 KBTV 231141
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
741 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
TONIGHT...PRODUCING CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA FOR THURSDAY AND REMAINING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE
REGION RIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 635 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENT LLVL CLOUDS HAVE KEPT
MORNING TEMPS MILD...GENERALLY IN THE U30S-M40S. ISOLATED TO SCT
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
INTO ERN NY/NERN NJ. WITH WIND FLOW PICKING UP OUT OF THE
NW...EXPECT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO PRODUCE SOME
SHRA OVER THE HIGHER TRRN TODAY AS SATELLITE IMGY SHOWS
MOISTURE/CLOUDS EXTENDING WELL UPSTREAM. FINAL PUSH FROM ANOTHER
UPPER LVL VORT WONT REACH THE REGION TIL THIS EVENING...KEEPING
THREAT OF PRECIP OVER PORTIONS OF THE FA INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WITH SFC LOW SHIFTING TO THE NE...UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SETTING THE AREA UP FOR N/NW
FLOW TODAY. FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER HIGHER TRRN DUE TO
UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE VALLEY WARM
ENOUGH FOR -SHRA. BUT HIGHER TRRN WILL SEE SOME RASN MIX. WINDS
MAY ALSO BECM GUSTY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY AS 40-50KT JET
AT 850MB EXTENDS INTO THE SRN 2/3 OF THE FA. EXPECT QPF AMTS
AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...WITH ABOUT AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL PSBL OVER THE HIGHER TRRN.

PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY LATE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS LOOK TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNGT ACROSS THE
NEK.

CLOUDY SKIES FROM LLVL MOISTURE AND UPPER LVL TROUGH TRAVERSING
THE AREA...ALONG WITH COOLER N/NW FLOW WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE
40S-L50S IN THE VALLEYS AND 30S AT THE SUMMITS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIP CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING...LINGERING MOSTLY IN THE NEK IN THE FORM OF RASN MIX AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE L-M30S IN THE VALLEYS AND 20S IN THE HIGHER
TRRN.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGING
COINCIDING WILL LEAD TO 925MB TEMPS INCREASING TO 2C-3C THURSDAY.
GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES BUT CONTINUED N/NW FLOW WILL SEE MAX
TEMPS IN THE U40S-M50S IN THE VALLEYS AND U30S-L40S IN THE HIGHER
TRRN.

RIDGING WILL ALSO PUSH WEDNESDAYS 850MB JET EWD...AT 30-45KTS
OVER SRN AND ERN VT. CLOSER TO THE SFC...925MB WINDS FOR THIS
AREA AROUND 28-35KTS. WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AND GUSTY WINDS
PSBL...FINER FUELS WILL DRY MAINLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF
FA...BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH QPF RESULTS
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THURSDAY NGT...WINDS SUBSIDE WITH RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE REGION
AND CLEAR SKIES RESULTING IN COLD OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS...20S-L30S.
WARMTH REBOUNDS ON FRIDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING 7C-9C IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NGT. MAX TEMPS WILL SEE U50S-L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 455 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW MOISTURE
FROM A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT... SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS UP TO LIKELY. ON SATURDAY...ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. GFS IS MUCH SHARPER WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF MODEL AND ALSO HAS THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF
HAS THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC ON SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. AREA TO REMAIN
UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ON SUNDAY...SO WILL KEEP IN SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY FOR SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SUGGESTING
A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT ON
MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS...LEADING TO LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR TUESDAY. GFS
MODEL HAS THE REGION IN AN OMEGA BLOCK ON TUESDAY WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD MEAN A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...ECMWF MODEL HAS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW ON TUESDAY WELL SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND...WITH AN
OPEN TROUGH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW
FOR MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES...FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING AN UPPER
TROUGH AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SO
EXPECTING NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS TO
DEVELOP AFTER 14Z WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO FRIDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE
FRIDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS. SUNDAY...MAINLY
VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/JN
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/TABER







000
FXUS61 KALY 231037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED
TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.
SOME OF THESE MIGHT EVEN BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY. TONIGHT A BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE AS IT CLEARS AND TURNS COLD. SUNSHINE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BUT THE BREEZE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE.

AS OF 630 AM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER THE REGION AS AN
UPPER AIR LOW (20,000 FEET ABOVE THE GROUND) WAS MOVE JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF ALBANY. THIS SYSTEM WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONTINUATION OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE LIQUID RAIN. HOWEVER...IT MIGHT BE
JUST COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS TO PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS. ANY SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS (MAYBE A
COATING ON SOME GRASSY AREAS).

TEMPERATURES THIS EARLY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S ACROSS
VALLEY LOCATIONS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR
ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND EVEN IN THE VALLEYS...WILL NOT RISE MUCH AT ALL.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SUNSHINE IN THE VALLEYS AREAS
(ESPECIALLY TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS) LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM OUR REGION BY DAY/
END. DUE TO COOL AIR AND ALOFT THERE STILL COULD BE FEW SHOWERS
LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS VERMONT. IT WILL BE
MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME OF THESE OVER THE ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS TO FALL AS SNOW...BUT LIKELY NOT
ACCUMULATION MUCH IF AT ALL.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CREST ONLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...50 TO 55 MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...UPPER 50S MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD WITH A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...GUSTING UP TO 30-45 MPH
BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS IN THE USUAL PLACES
(CAPITAL DISTRICT/HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOHAWK VALLEY).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL MOVE BY WELL TO OUR EAST TONIGHT...BUT IT
WILL "CAPTURE" A SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS PROCESS WILL
STEEPEN THE GRADIENT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH
MORE WIND. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN -4 TO -8 C
OVERNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL NOT DECOUPLE...IT WILL TURN
COLD AS THE SKY GENERALLY CLEARS. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND
30 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 20S VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE WIND WILL
ADD TO THE CHILL...MAKING APPARENT TEMPERATURES FEEL ABOUT 10
DEGREES COLDER.

THURSDAY WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE TOWARD 0C. THE STIFF BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE...AVERAGING 10 TO 15 MPH ONCE MORE...WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 30 MPH OR BETTER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE...CLIMBING TO 55 TO 60 DEGREES IN MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE OCEAN STORM WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO LOOSE IT
GRIP ON OUR REGION. THE WIND WILL RELAX. THERE MIGHT BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING LATE BUT EITHER WAY...THERE WILL BE MORE
OPPORTUNITY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...DESPITE CONTINUED WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TONIGHT/S
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

FRIDAY...THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAST THAT
RAIN FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM...A WARM FRONT...WILL REACH THE AREA. THE
00Z GFS AND NAM WERE A LITTLE FASTER BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION
BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY. THE 00Z EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN
MODELS ON THE OTHER HAND...WERE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH RAIN NOT
REACHING OUR AREA UNTIL AFTER DARK.

FOR NOW...WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS...LOWING CHANCES
TO SLIGHT FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH LOW CHANCES TO THE
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW FAST RAIN SPREADS INTO THE REGION
WILL HELP DICTATE HOW MILD IT GETS. FOR NOW...WE KEPT THE THINKING
THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH AROUND 60 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
VALLEYS FURTHER EAST...WHILE HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
EAST AS WELL. IF THE RAIN WERE TO COME IN FASTER...THESE NUMBERS
WOULD LIKELY HAVE TO BE LOWERED A LITTLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS 00Z
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKING
PATTERN THAT WILL LIKELY LAST INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

WE BEGIN THE WEEKEND WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.  THIS WOULD PLACE
THE HIGHER CHC-SCT POPS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.
THEREAFTER...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS LATEST NEW TRENDS ARE FOR A
NOW A DRIER SUNDAY AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE WILL LOWER POPS THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP BELOW 0C WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE
EXPECTED.  THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF
THIS LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF REMAINS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A LESS PRONOUNCED RIDGE OVER THE REGION WHEN
COMPARED TO THE GGEM/GFS/DGEX WHICH WOULD BRING HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
WET CONDITIONS.  FOR NOW...WITH A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING AND A DEEPER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ADVECTING NORTHWARD...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WE LEAN TOWARD THE
ECMWF/WPC GUIDANCE /SEE PMDEPD FOR FURTHER DETAILS/.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING WINDS...MVFR CIGS AND COVERAGE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
THE MAIN THEMES FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

MAIN UPPER LOW WAS JUST MOVING EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER THIS EARLY
MORNING.  UPON ITS PASSAGE...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
THOSE MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST WITH A GRADUAL LIFTING OF THOSE CIGS
THROUGH THE DAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING CLIMBS.  THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE KPSF WHERE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WHERE MVFR CIGS
SHOULD PREVAIL.

WIND MAGNITUDES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND THAT AFOREMENTIONED MIXING LAYER CLIMBS.  GUSTS APPROACHING
30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30-45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

     WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY...

WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT...AS OF 430 AM EDT...MOST AREAS DID NOT COME CLOSE TO
REACHING A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY AS AN
UPPER AIR LOW MOVES THROUGH EARLY...EXITING LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THESE SHOWERS (EVEN WHEN COMBINED WITH
THOSE OF LAST NIGHT) WILL ADD UP TO A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF
RAINFALL.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT...GENERALLY IN THE 35-50 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL DIMINISH TO A BREEZE TONIGHT BUT IN MOST
PLACES...WILL NOT BECOME LIGHT. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH THOSE HIGHER EVENING GUSTS. A FULL RECOVER IS NOT GOING TO
HAPPEN TONIGHT AS RH VALUES PEAK AROUND 75 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES.

THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SUNSHINE WILL
PREVAIL AND TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH ABOVE 50F (EXCEPT IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT). A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL STILL BE
THERE...GUSTING 25-35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH
VALUES LOOK TO TUMBLE INTO THE 20S MOST AREAS (AROUND 30 SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND ADIRONDACKS) BUT MIGHT EVEN DIP INTO THE TEENS IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD. IT WILL BE MORE THAN FIVE
DAYS WITHOUT A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION.


OUR OFFICE WILL COORDINATE WITH THE STATE LIAISON OFFICIALS
CONCERNING ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED BY WED AFTN. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THU-THU NT...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO
SAT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH WED AM. THESE RAINFALL
AMTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL










000
FXUS61 KBTV 231035
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
635 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
TONIGHT...PRODUCING CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA FOR THURSDAY AND REMAINING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE
REGION RIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 635 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENT LLVL CLOUDS HAVE KEPT
MORNING TEMPS MILD...GENERALLY IN THE U30S-M40S. ISOLATED TO SCT
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
INTO ERN NY/NERN NJ. WITH WIND FLOW PICKING UP OUT OF THE
NW...EXPECT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO PRODUCE SOME
SHRA OVER THE HIGHER TRRN TODAY AS SATELLITE IMGY SHOWS
MOISTURE/CLOUDS EXTENDING WELL UPSTREAM. FINAL PUSH FROM ANOTHER
UPPER LVL VORT WONT REACH THE REGION TIL THIS EVENING...KEEPING
THREAT OF PRECIP OVER PORTIONS OF THE FA INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WITH SFC LOW SHIFTING TO THE NE...UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SETTING THE AREA UP FOR N/NW
FLOW TODAY. FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER HIGHER TRRN DUE TO
UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE VALLEY WARM
ENOUGH FOR -SHRA. BUT HIGHER TRRN WILL SEE SOME RASN MIX. WINDS
MAY ALSO BECM GUSTY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY AS 40-50KT JET
AT 850MB EXTENDS INTO THE SRN 2/3 OF THE FA. EXPECT QPF AMTS
AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...WITH ABOUT AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL PSBL OVER THE HIGHER TRRN.

PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY LATE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS LOOK TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNGT ACROSS THE
NEK.

CLOUDY SKIES FROM LLVL MOISTURE AND UPPER LVL TROUGH TRAVERSING
THE AREA...ALONG WITH COOLER N/NW FLOW WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE
40S-L50S IN THE VALLEYS AND 30S AT THE SUMMITS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIP CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING...LINGERING MOSTLY IN THE NEK IN THE FORM OF RASN MIX AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE L-M30S IN THE VALLEYS AND 20S IN THE HIGHER
TRRN.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGING
COINCIDING WILL LEAD TO 925MB TEMPS INCREASING TO 2C-3C THURSDAY.
GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES BUT CONTINUED N/NW FLOW WILL SEE MAX
TEMPS IN THE U40S-M50S IN THE VALLEYS AND U30S-L40S IN THE HIGHER
TRRN.

RIDGING WILL ALSO PUSH WEDNESDAYS 850MB JET EWD...AT 30-45KTS
OVER SRN AND ERN VT. CLOSER TO THE SFC...925MB WINDS FOR THIS
AREA AROUND 28-35KTS. WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AND GUSTY WINDS
PSBL...FINER FUELS WILL DRY MAINLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF
FA...BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH QPF RESULTS
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THURSDAY NGT...WINDS SUBSIDE WITH RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE REGION
AND CLEAR SKIES RESULTING IN COLD OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS...20S-L30S.
WARMTH REBOUNDS ON FRIDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING 7C-9C IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NGT. MAX TEMPS WILL SEE U50S-L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 455 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW MOISTURE
FROM A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT... SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS UP TO LIKELY. ON SATURDAY...ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. GFS IS MUCH SHARPER WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF MODEL AND ALSO HAS THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF
HAS THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC ON SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. AREA TO REMAIN
UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ON SUNDAY...SO WILL KEEP IN SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY FOR SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SUGGESTING
A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT ON
MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS...LEADING TO LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR TUESDAY. GFS
MODEL HAS THE REGION IN AN OMEGA BLOCK ON TUESDAY WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD MEAN A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...ECMWF MODEL HAS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW ON TUESDAY WELL SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND...WITH AN
OPEN TROUGH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW
FOR MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES...FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING AN UPPER
TROUGH AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SO
EXPECTING NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS TO
DEVELOP AFTER 14Z WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN THE
HEAVIER AREAS OF PRECIP. SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF
MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/JN
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/TABER













000
FXUS61 KBTV 230855
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
455 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
TONIGHT...PRODUCING CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA FOR THURSDAY AND REMAINING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE
REGION RIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WITH SFC LOW SHIFTING TO THE
NE...UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SETTING THE
AREA UP FOR N/NW FLOW TODAY. FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER HIGHER
TRRN DUE TO UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE
VALLEY WARM ENOUGH FOR -SHRA. BUT HIGHER TRRN WILL SEE SOME RASN
MIX. WINDS MAY ALSO BECM GUSTY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY AS
40-50KT JET AT 850MB EXTENDS INTO THE SRN 2/3 OF THE FA. EXPECT
QPF AMTS AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...WITH ABOUT AN INCH
OF SNOWFALL PSBL OVER THE HIGHER TRRN.

PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY LATE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS LOOK TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNGT ACROSS THE
NEK.

CLOUDY SKIES FROM LLVL MOISTURE AND UPPER LVL TROUGH TRAVERSING
THE AREA...ALONG WITH COOLER N/NW FLOW WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE
40S-L50S IN THE VALLEYS AND 30S AT THE SUMMITS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIP CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING...LINGERING MOSTLY IN THE NEK IN THE FORM OF RASN MIX AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE L-M30S IN THE VALLEYS AND 20S IN THE HIGHER
TRRN.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGING
COINCIDING WILL LEAD TO 925MB TEMPS INCREASING TO 2C-3C THURSDAY.
GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES BUT CONTINUED N/NW FLOW WILL SEE MAX
TEMPS IN THE U40S-M50S IN THE VALLEYS AND U30S-L40S IN THE HIGHER
TRRN.

RIDGING WILL ALSO PUSH WEDNESDAYS 850MB JET EWD...AT 30-45KTS
OVER SRN AND ERN VT. CLOSER TO THE SFC...925MB WINDS FOR THIS
AREA AROUND 28-35KTS. WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AND GUSTY WINDS
PSBL...FINER FUELS WILL DRY MAINLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF
FA...BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH QPF RESULTS
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THURSDAY NGT...WINDS SUBSIDE WITH RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE REGION
AND CLEAR SKIES RESULTING IN COLD OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS...20S-L30S.
WARMTH REBOUNDS ON FRIDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING 7C-9C IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NGT. MAX TEMPS WILL SEE U50S-L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 455 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW MOISTURE
FROM A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT... SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS UP TO LIKELY. ON SATURDAY...ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. GFS IS MUCH SHARPER WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF MODEL AND ALSO HAS THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
THIS FEATURE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC ON SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. AREA TO REMAIN
UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ON SUNDAY...SO WILL KEEP IN SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY FOR SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SUGGESTING
A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT ON MONDAY.
ON TUESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS...LEADING TO LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR TUESDAY. GFS
MODEL HAS THE REGION IN AN OMEGA BLOCK ON TUESDAY WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD MEAN A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...ECMWF MODEL HAS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW ON TUESDAY WELL SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND...WITH AN
OPEN TROUGH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW
FOR MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES...FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING AN UPPER
TROUGH AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SO
EXPECTING NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS TO
DEVELOP AFTER 14Z WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN THE
HEAVIER AREAS OF PRECIP. SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF
MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/JN
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/TABER









000
FXUS61 KALY 230832
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
430 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER A LITTLE UNSETTLED
TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.
SOME OF THESE MIGHT EVEN BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY. TONIGHT A BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE AS IT CLEARS AND TURNS COLD. SUNSHINE WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BUT THE BREEZE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY NORTHWARD TO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES. OTHER
SHOWERS WERE NOTED ACROSS HERKIMER COUNTY.

THESE SHOWERS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER AIR LOW...DIGGING
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL PA. THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE BROAD ASCENT
AND A COLD POOL FOR THE MORNING HOURS. THIS IN TURN WILL YIELD TO
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING...BUT WITH
THE COLD POOL LINGERING THIS AFTERNOON...SOME SHOWERS COULD PERSIST
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN VERMONT.

MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE LIQUID RAIN. HOWEVER...IT MIGHT BE
JUST COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS TO PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS. ANY SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS (MAYBE A
COATING ON SOME GRASSY AREAS).

TEMPERATURES THIS EARLY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S ACROSS
VALLEY LOCATIONS...35-40 HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR
ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND EVEN IN THE VALLEYS...WILL NOT RISE MUCH AT ALL.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SUNSHINE IN THE VALLEYS AREAS
(ESPECIALLY TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS) LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CREST ONLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...50 TO 55 MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...UPPER 50S MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD WITH A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...GUSTING UP TO 30-45 MPH
BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS IN THE USUAL PLACES
(CAPITAL DISTRICT/HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOHAWK VALLEY).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL MOVE BY WELL TO OUR EAST TONIGHT...BUT IT
WILL "CAPTURE" A SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS PROCESS WILL
STEEPEN THE GRADIENT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH
MORE WIND. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN -4 TO -8 C
OVERNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL NOT DECOUPLE...IT WILL TURN
COLD AS THE SKY GENERALLY CLEARS. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND
30 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 20S VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE WIND WILL
ADD TO THE CHILL...MAKING APPARENT TEMPERATURES FEEL ABOUT 10
DEGREES COLDER.

THURSDAY WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE TOWARD 0C. THE STIFF BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE...AVERAGING 10 TO 15 MPH ONCE MORE...WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 30 MPH OR BETTER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE...CLIMBING TO 55 TO 60 DEGREES IN MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE OCEAN STORM WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO LOOSE IT
GRIP ON OUR REGION. THE WIND WILL RELAX. THERE MIGHT BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING LATE BUT EITHER WAY...THERE WILL BE MORE
OPPORTUNITY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...DESPITE CONTINUED WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TONIGHT/S
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

FRIDAY...THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAST THAT
RAIN FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM...A WARM FRONT...WILL REACH THE AREA. THE
00Z GFS AND NAM WERE A LITTLE FASTER BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION
BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY. THE 00Z EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN
MODELS ON THE OTHER HAND...WERE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH RAIN NOT
REACHING OUR AREA UNTIL AFTER DARK.

FOR NOW...WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS...LOWING CHANCES
TO SLIGHT FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH LOW CHANCES TO THE
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW FAST RAIN SPREADS INTO THE REGION
WILL HELP DICTATE HOW MILD IT GETS. FOR NOW...WE KEPT THE THINKING
THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH AROUND 60 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
VALLEYS FURTHER EAST...WHILE HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
EAST AS WELL. IF THE RAIN WERE TO COME IN FASTER...THESE NUMBERS
WOULD LIKELY HAVE TO BE LOWERED A LITTLE.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS 00Z
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKING
PATTERN THAT WILL LIKELY LAST INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

WE BEGIN THE WEEKEND WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.  THIS WOULD PLACE
THE HIGHER CHC-SCT POPS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.
THEREAFTER...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS LATEST NEW TRENDS ARE FOR A
NOW A DRIER SUNDAY AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE WILL LOWER POPS THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP BELOW 0C WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE
EXPECTED.  THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF
THIS LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF REMAINS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A LESS PRONOUNCED RIDGE OVER THE REGION WHEN
COMPARED TO THE GGEM/GFS/DGEX WHICH WOULD BRING HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
WET CONDITIONS.  FOR NOW...WITH A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING AND A DEEPER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ADVECTING NORTHWARD...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WE LEAN TOWARD THE
ECMWF/WPC GUIDANCE /SEE PMDEPD FOR FURTHER DETAILS/.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS REMAINS SCATTERED AS WE WILL KEEP A VCSH IN THE
TAFS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED
TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION WITH SOME GUSTS INTO KALB-KPSF. CEILINGS
WILL DIP INTO PERIODS OF MVFR AS LOWER CLOUDS AND AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE.  THESE SHOWERS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AS VIS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES FROM WEST OR NORTHWEST SLOWLY
OVERNIGHT AND QUICKLY BECOME GUSTY OF 25 TO 35 KTS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHOWER.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30-45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

     WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY...

WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT...AS OF 430 AM EDT...MOST AREAS DID NOT COME CLOSE TO
REACHING A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY AS AN
UPPER AIR LOW MOVES THROUGH EARLY...EXITING LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THESE SHOWERS (EVEN WHEN COMBINED WITH
THOSE OF LAST NIGHT) WILL ADD UP TO A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF
RAINFALL.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT...GENERALLY IN THE 35-50 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL DIMINISH TO A BREEZE TONIGHT BUT IN MOST
PLACES...WILL NOT BECOME LIGHT. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH THOSE HIGHER EVENING GUSTS. A FULL RECOVER IS NOT GOING TO
HAPPEN TONIGHT AS RH VALUES PEAK AROUND 75 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES.

THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SUNSHINE WILL
PREVAIL AND TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH ABOVE 50F (EXCEPT IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT). A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL STILL BE
THERE...GUSTING 25-35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH
VALUES LOOK TO TUMBLE INTO THE 20S MOST AREAS (AROUND 30 SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND ADIRONDACKS) BUT MIGHT EVEN DIP INTO THE TEENS IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD. IT WILL BE MORE THAN FIVE
DAYS WITHOUT A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION.


OUR OFFICE WILL COORDINATE WITH THE STATE LIAISON OFFICIALS
CONCERNING ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED BY WED AFTN. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THU-THU NT...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO
SAT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH WED AM. THESE RAINFALL
AMTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL










000
FXUS61 KBTV 230820
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
420 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
TONIGHT...PRODUCING CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA FOR THURSDAY AND REMAINING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE
REGION RIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WITH SFC LOW SHIFTING TO THE
NE...UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SETTING THE
AREA UP FOR N/NW FLOW TODAY. FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER HIGHER
TRRN DUE TO UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE
VALLEY WARM ENOUGH FOR -SHRA. BUT HIGHER TRRN WILL SEE SOME RASN
MIX. WINDS MAY ALSO BECM GUSTY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY AS
40-50KT JET AT 850MB EXTENDS INTO THE SRN 2/3 OF THE FA. EXPECT
QPF AMTS AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...WITH ABOUT AN INCH
OF SNOWFALL PSBL OVER THE HIGHER TRRN.

PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY LATE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS LOOK TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNGT ACROSS THE
NEK.

CLOUDY SKIES FROM LLVL MOISTURE AND UPPER LVL TROUGH TRAVERSING
THE AREA...ALONG WITH COOLER N/NW FLOW WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE
40S-L50S IN THE VALLEYS AND 30S AT THE SUMMITS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...PRECIP CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING...LINGERING MOSTLY IN THE NEK IN THE FORM OF RASN MIX AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE L-M30S IN THE VALLEYS AND 20S IN THE HIGHER
TRRN.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW...WITH UPPER LVL RIDGING
COINCIDING WILL LEAD TO 925MB TEMPS INCREASING TO 2C-3C THURSDAY.
GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES BUT CONTINUED N/NW FLOW WILL SEE MAX
TEMPS IN THE U40S-M50S IN THE VALLEYS AND U30S-L40S IN THE HIGHER
TRRN.

RIDGING WILL ALSO PUSH WEDNESDAYS 850MB JET EWD...AT 30-45KTS
OVER SRN AND ERN VT. CLOSER TO THE SFC...925MB WINDS FOR THIS
AREA AROUND 28-35KTS. WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AND GUSTY WINDS
PSBL...FINER FUELS WILL DRY MAINLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF
FA...BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH QPF RESULTS
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THURSDAY NGT...WINDS SUBSIDE WITH RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE REGION
AND CLEAR SKIES RESULTING IN COLD OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS...20S-L30S.
WARMTH REBOUNDS ON FRIDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING 7C-9C IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...BRINGING MORE PRECIP TO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NGT. MAX TEMPS WILL SEE U50S-L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...LONG TERM STARTS DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON FRIDAY...BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH REGARDS TO MAGNITUDE OF TROF
AND ASSOCIATED CAA. FOR FRIDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH
PRES OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN MAINLY CLR SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S
MTNS TO 60S VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED THE 12Z ECWMF IS MUCH WARMER WITH
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 5-7C...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW L70S. FOR
SAT INTO SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT RACES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE CONUS...WITH SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING ON BACKSIDE HELPING
TO DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION. THE TIMING OF THIS ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH MAIN TROF WL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON OUR
TEMPS/WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. CRNT GFS/ECMWF HAVE FLIP FLOPPED
AGAIN ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH GFS SUPPORTING A
COOLER/WETTER SOLUTION WITH SOME WHITE IN THE MTNS...WHILE THE
LATEST 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND WARMER/DRIER. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY ON DEPTH OF TROF AND AMOUNT OF LLVL CAA BEHIND
SFC BOUNDARY...WL MENTION TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY AND BLW NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH CHC SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER THE MTNS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS RANGE BTWN 0-2C ON
SAT...RESULTING IN HIGHS 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS WITH LOWS IN THE
30S MTNS TO 40S VALLEYS ON SAT NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES
SUNDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -5C AND -7C AND 1000 TO 500MB
THICKNESS VALUES BTWN 530 AND 534...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 30S MTNS TO 40S TO NEAR 50F VALLEYS. THESE PROFILES SUPPORT
THE POTENTIAL FOR MTNS SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN IN THE VALLEYS...DUE TO WARM
BL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING AN UPPER
TROUGH AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SO
EXPECTING NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS TO
DEVELOP AFTER 14Z WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN THE
HEAVIER AREAS OF PRECIP. SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF
MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM/JN
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...WGH/TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 230618
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
218 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT RIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY AND REMAINING RIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE REGION
RIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS
CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NY AND INTO THE CPV. AS UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG INTO CENTRAL PA...CLOUDS AND THREAT OF SCT
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. OVERALL FCST IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH MIN TEMPS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 30S TO M40S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHEAST
VERMONT LATE THIS EVENING. INITIAL COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW...WHICH IS MORE OF A WIND SHIFT THAN A CHANGE IN
AIRMASS...HAS JUST ABOUT EXITED VERMONT. SECONDARY FRONT...BEHIND
WHICH LIES THE COLDER AIR...IS STILL BACK IN THE OTTAWA VALLEY.
THIS SECOND BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH RATHER STRONG UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. AS FLOW TURNS MORE
NORTHERLY BEHIND DEPARTING LOW...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE
OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE...WITH FOCUS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. AS AIRMASS
COOLS...LOOK FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
GOING FORECAST HAS IT ALL COVERED FAIRLY WELL. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
MAKE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS. THE RESULT WAS TO RAISE MINS A COUPLE OF DEGREES MOST
AREAS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT TUESDAY...GOING INTO WEDNESDAY...SFC/UPPER LOW
HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION...SETTING THE AREA UP FOR
NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS. FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL
BE OVER HIR TRRN DUE TO UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS...WITH A
SLOW TAPER OF AREAL COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF
SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. TEMPS
WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP VALLEY LOCALES ALL -RW DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH -RW/-SW MIX FOR HIR TRRN. AREAS SHOULD SEE A
COUPLE TENTHS OVERALL FOR QPF...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF -SW OVER
HIR TRRN. POPS DUE TAPER SHARPLY GOING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT W/
MAIN FOCUS BEING NE VT TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIP IN NE VT FOR THURSDAY MORNING GIVING WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE
FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DECENT 24-HR STRETCH OF WX
DURING THIS TIME ONCE -RW/-SW CLRS THE NE KINGDOM. OVERALL FOR
TEMPS 40S MAINLY FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHS AND LIFTING INTO THE 50S FOR
THURSDAY WITH AREA SEEING FULL SUNSHINE. OVERNGT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE 30S IN VALLEY LOCALES DOWN TO THE TEENS/20S IN HIR TRRN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...LONG TERM STARTS DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON FRIDAY...BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH REGARDS TO MAGNITUDE OF TROF
AND ASSOCIATED CAA. FOR FRIDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH
PRES OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN MAINLY CLR SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S
MTNS TO 60S VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED THE 12Z ECWMF IS MUCH WARMER WITH
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 5-7C...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW L70S. FOR
SAT INTO SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT RACES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE CONUS...WITH SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING ON BACKSIDE HELPING
TO DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION. THE TIMING OF THIS ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH MAIN TROF WL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON OUR
TEMPS/WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. CRNT GFS/ECMWF HAVE FLIP FLOPPED
AGAIN ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH GFS SUPPORTING A
COOLER/WETTER SOLUTION WITH SOME WHITE IN THE MTNS...WHILE THE
LATEST 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND WARMER/DRIER. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY ON DEPTH OF TROF AND AMOUNT OF LLVL CAA BEHIND
SFC BOUNDARY...WL MENTION TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY AND BLW NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH CHC SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER THE MTNS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS RANGE BTWN 0-2C ON
SAT...RESULTING IN HIGHS 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS WITH LOWS IN THE
30S MTNS TO 40S VALLEYS ON SAT NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES
SUNDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -5C AND -7C AND 1000 TO 500MB
THICKNESS VALUES BTWN 530 AND 534...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 30S MTNS TO 40S TO NEAR 50F VALLEYS. THESE PROFILES SUPPORT
THE POTENTIAL FOR MTNS SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN IN THE VALLEYS...DUE TO WARM
BL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING AN UPPER
TROUGH AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER VERMONT AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SO
EXPECTING NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS TO
DEVELOP AFTER 14Z WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN THE
HEAVIER AREAS OF PRECIP. SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...WGH/TABER







000
FXUS61 KALY 230526
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
126 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT...AND OFF
THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN IN
VALLEYS...AND SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
FAIR AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...RADARS SHOWING ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWER
COVERAGE...MAINLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT. A GUSTY WEST WIND HAS ALREADY ENSUED AT ALBANY AND
POINTS WEST. TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS FROM
ALBANY WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP OVERNIGHT.

WE ARE LOOKING AT A SHORT WAVE NEAR LAKE ERIE...PRODUCING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS IN WESTERN NEW YORK. AS THIS SHORT WAVE NEARS...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO INCREASE A LITTLE...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FOR THIS UPDATE...WE DID LOWER TEMPERATURES A LITTLE IN SOME
SPOTS...NAMELY THE CAPITAL REGION. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE MID 40S
LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS SOUTH. ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...CLOSER TO 40 ACROSS REMAINDER REGIONS UP NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL PASS SOMEWHERE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. DEFORMATION ON
THE NORTHERN/NW SIDE SHOULD FAVOR RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...ESP FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS TO THE S AND
E. AS THIS FEATURE PULLS FARTHER E...WE EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
RAIN SHOWERS TO DECREASE LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT. SOME SNOW MAY BE MIXED IN AT TIMES ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREDOMINATE AS THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL PASSES
THROUGH. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SOME WIND GUSTS TO REACH 40-45 MPH AT TIMES...ESP WITHIN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.
AS FOR MAX TEMPS...EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPS THAN RECENT
DAYS...MAINLY REACHING THE MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS MAY ONLY
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S.

WED NT-THU NT...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT WED EVE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT BRISK...SO ALTHOUGH A
CHILLY AIR MASS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT
UNDERGO THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR WED NT. EXPECT MOST MINS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S
ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ON THU...A NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH AS THE SFC LOW IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ONLY
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY. IN ADDITION...DEEPER MIXING IS EXPECTED FOR THU
AFTERNOON. SO...STILL EXPECT RATHER GUSTY WINDS...ESP IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 30-40
MPH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MORE
SUNSHINE/DEEPER MIXING SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN MILDER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR IN SOME VALLEY AREAS. THEN FOR THU NT...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER
QUICKLY...BEFORE LEVELING OFF LATER AT NIGHT AS SOME HIGH/MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARRIVE. EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S IN MOST
AREAS.

FRI-FRI NT...THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
LOOKS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...AND WEAK. AT THIS TIME...WILL
INDICATE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR FRI AFTN...AND CHC POPS FRI
NT...FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS ON FRI SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS AND 55-60 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI
NT MINS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER
3OS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACK THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS...HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...WITH 50S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN SOURCES OF GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES AS TO
THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF UPPER ENERGY LATER SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT THERE IS A CONSENSUS THAT HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER
WEATHER SHOULD BUILD EAST INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  THERE
IS...HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AS TO THE POSITION AND
AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL U.S.
THE SPECIFICS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES CAN BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION OR NOT...WHICH WILL
DETERMINE IF WE HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S...OR HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 60S.

FOR NOW SUGGESTING COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING DAYTIME INSTABILITY CLOUDINESS WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE
UPPER LOW MOVING OUT A BIT SLOWER. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AGAIN IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH SOME 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY
TUESDAY...ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER LOW IN THE
MIDWEST TO OH VALLEY AND BETTER RIDGING OVER OUR REGION.  THERE
COULD BE A LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION LATER
TUESDAY BUT AGAIN...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ON THE FINE
DETAILS OF TIMING OF WARM ADVECTION...CLOUDS AND ADVANCING
PRECIPITATION. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS REMAINS SCATTERED AS WE WILL KEEP A VCSH IN THE
TAFS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED
TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION WITH SOME GUSTS INTO KALB-KPSF. CEILINGS
WILL DIP INTO PERIODS OF MVFR AS LOWER CLOUDS AND AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE.  THESE SHOWERS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AS VIS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES FROM WEST OR NORTHWEST SLOWLY
OVERNIGHT AND QUICKLY BECOME GUSTY OF 25 TO 35 KTS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0  NO
SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 35-45 MPH LIKELY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

     WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT...AND OFF
THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN IN
VALLEYS...AND SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
FAIR AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...AT 25-35 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
40-45 MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO 15-25 MPH WED
NT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 25-35 MPH LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 80-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...WITH SOME
SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE RH WILL THEN FALL TO 35-45 PERCENT IN
VALLEYS...AND 45-65 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WED
AFTERNOON. THE RH WILL THEN RECOVER TO 65-80 PERCENT WED
NT...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE FOR THU AFTN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED BY WED AFTN. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THU-THU NT...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO
SAT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH WED AM. THESE RAINFALL
AMTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY











000
FXUS61 KALY 230522
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
108 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT...AND OFF
THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN IN
VALLEYS...AND SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
FAIR AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...RADARS SHOWING ONLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWER
COVERAGE...MAINLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT. A GUSTY WEST WIND HAS ALREADY ENSUED AT ALBANY AND
POINTS WEST. TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS FROM
ALBANY WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP OVERNIGHT.

WE ARE LOOKING AT A SHORT WAVE NEAR LAKE ERIE...PRODUCING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS IN WESTERN NEW YORK. AS THIS SHORT WAVE NEARS...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO INCREASE A LITTLE...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FOR THIS UPDATE...WE DID LOWER TEMPERATURES A LITTLE IN SOME
SPOTS...NAMELY THE CAPITAL REGION. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE MID 40S
LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS SOUTH. ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...CLOSER TO 40 ACROSS REMAINDER REGIONS UP NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL PASS SOMEWHERE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. DEFORMATION ON
THE NORTHERN/NW SIDE SHOULD FAVOR RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...ESP FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS TO THE S AND
E. AS THIS FEATURE PULLS FARTHER E...WE EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
RAIN SHOWERS TO DECREASE LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT. SOME SNOW MAY BE MIXED IN AT TIMES ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREDOMINATE AS THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL PASSES
THROUGH. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SOME WIND GUSTS TO REACH 40-45 MPH AT TIMES...ESP WITHIN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.
AS FOR MAX TEMPS...EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPS THAN RECENT
DAYS...MAINLY REACHING THE MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS MAY ONLY
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S.

WED NT-THU NT...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT WED EVE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT BRISK...SO ALTHOUGH A
CHILLY AIR MASS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT
UNDERGO THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR WED NT. EXPECT MOST MINS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S
ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ON THU...A NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH AS THE SFC LOW IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ONLY
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY. IN ADDITION...DEEPER MIXING IS EXPECTED FOR THU
AFTERNOON. SO...STILL EXPECT RATHER GUSTY WINDS...ESP IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 30-40
MPH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MORE
SUNSHINE/DEEPER MIXING SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN MILDER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR IN SOME VALLEY AREAS. THEN FOR THU NT...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER
QUICKLY...BEFORE LEVELING OFF LATER AT NIGHT AS SOME HIGH/MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARRIVE. EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S IN MOST
AREAS.

FRI-FRI NT...THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
LOOKS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...AND WEAK. AT THIS TIME...WILL
INDICATE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR FRI AFTN...AND CHC POPS FRI
NT...FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS ON FRI SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS AND 55-60 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI
NT MINS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER
3OS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACK THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS...HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...WITH 50S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN SOURCES OF GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES AS TO
THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF UPPER ENERGY LATER SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT THERE IS A CONSENSUS THAT HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER
WEATHER SHOULD BUILD EAST INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  THERE
IS...HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AS TO THE POSITION AND
AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL U.S.
THE SPECIFICS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES CAN BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION OR NOT...WHICH WILL
DETERMINE IF WE HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S...OR HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 60S.

FOR NOW SUGGESTING COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING DAYTIME INSTABILITY CLOUDINESS WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE
UPPER LOW MOVING OUT A BIT SLOWER. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AGAIN IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH SOME 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY
TUESDAY...ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER LOW IN THE
MIDWEST TO OH VALLEY AND BETTER RIDGING OVER OUR REGION.  THERE
COULD BE A LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION LATER
TUESDAY BUT AGAIN...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ON THE FINE
DETAILS OF TIMING OF WARM ADVECTION...CLOUDS AND ADVANCING
PRECIPITATION. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS DECREASED BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
WEST ARE MOVING EAST AND COULD AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT. THE WIND
SHIFT BOUNDARY SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN LIGHT WEST WINDS BELOW 10 KT. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN HAVE REMAINED MAINLY
VFR...WITH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR. KEEPING PREDOMINANT
CONDITIONS VFR SINCE UPSTREAM CONDITIONS DO NOT INDICATE
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROPPING OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH TOMORROW...SO KEEPING VCSH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 00Z TOMORROW.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT 10 KT OR LESS. AFTER THE FRONT THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO WEST OR NORTHWEST AT THE SAME SPEEDS...THEN THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX. THURSDAY:
MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 35-45 MPH LIKELY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

     WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT...AND OFF
THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN IN
VALLEYS...AND SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
FAIR AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...AT 25-35 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
40-45 MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO 15-25 MPH WED
NT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 25-35 MPH LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 80-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...WITH SOME
SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE RH WILL THEN FALL TO 35-45 PERCENT IN
VALLEYS...AND 45-65 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WED
AFTERNOON. THE RH WILL THEN RECOVER TO 65-80 PERCENT WED
NT...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE FOR THU AFTN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED BY WED AFTN. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THU-THU NT...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO
SAT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH WED AM. THESE RAINFALL
AMTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL










000
FXUS61 KBTV 230455
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1255 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT RIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY AND REMAINING RIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE REGION
RIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS
CONTINUE...MAINLY ACROSS NRN NY AND INTO THE CPV. AS UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG INTO CENTRAL PA...CLOUDS AND THREAT OF SCT
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. OVERALL FCST IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH MIN TEMPS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 30S TO M40S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHEAST
VERMONT LATE THIS EVENING. INITIAL COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW...WHICH IS MORE OF A WIND SHIFT THAN A CHANGE IN
AIRMASS...HAS JUST ABOUT EXITED VERMONT. SECONDARY FRONT...BEHIND
WHICH LIES THE COLDER AIR...IS STILL BACK IN THE OTTAWA VALLEY.
THIS SECOND BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH RATHER STRONG UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. AS FLOW TURNS MORE
NORTHERLY BEHIND DEPARTING LOW...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE
OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE...WITH FOCUS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. AS AIRMASS
COOLS...LOOK FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
GOING FORECAST HAS IT ALL COVERED FAIRLY WELL. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
MAKE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS. THE RESULT WAS TO RAISE MINS A COUPLE OF DEGREES MOST
AREAS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT TUESDAY...GOING INTO WEDNESDAY...SFC/UPPER LOW
HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION...SETTING THE AREA UP FOR
NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS. FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL
BE OVER HIR TRRN DUE TO UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS...WITH A
SLOW TAPER OF AREAL COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF
SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. TEMPS
WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP VALLEY LOCALES ALL -RW DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH -RW/-SW MIX FOR HIR TRRN. AREAS SHOULD SEE A
COUPLE TENTHS OVERALL FOR QPF...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF -SW OVER
HIR TRRN. POPS DUE TAPER SHARPLY GOING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT W/
MAIN FOCUS BEING NE VT TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIP IN NE VT FOR THURSDAY MORNING GIVING WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE
FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DECENT 24-HR STRETCH OF WX
DURING THIS TIME ONCE -RW/-SW CLRS THE NE KINGDOM. OVERALL FOR
TEMPS 40S MAINLY FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHS AND LIFTING INTO THE 50S FOR
THURSDAY WITH AREA SEEING FULL SUNSHINE. OVERNGT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE 30S IN VALLEY LOCALES DOWN TO THE TEENS/20S IN HIR TRRN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...LONG TERM STARTS DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON FRIDAY...BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH REGARDS TO MAGNITUDE OF TROF
AND ASSOCIATED CAA. FOR FRIDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH
PRES OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN MAINLY CLR SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S
MTNS TO 60S VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED THE 12Z ECWMF IS MUCH WARMER WITH
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 5-7C...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW L70S. FOR
SAT INTO SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT RACES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE CONUS...WITH SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING ON BACKSIDE HELPING
TO DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION. THE TIMING OF THIS ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH MAIN TROF WL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON OUR
TEMPS/WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. CRNT GFS/ECMWF HAVE FLIP FLOPPED
AGAIN ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH GFS SUPPORTING A
COOLER/WETTER SOLUTION WITH SOME WHITE IN THE MTNS...WHILE THE
LATEST 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND WARMER/DRIER. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY ON DEPTH OF TROF AND AMOUNT OF LLVL CAA BEHIND
SFC BOUNDARY...WL MENTION TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY AND BLW NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH CHC SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER THE MTNS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS RANGE BTWN 0-2C ON
SAT...RESULTING IN HIGHS 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS WITH LOWS IN THE
30S MTNS TO 40S VALLEYS ON SAT NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES
SUNDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -5C AND -7C AND 1000 TO 500MB
THICKNESS VALUES BTWN 530 AND 534...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 30S MTNS TO 40S TO NEAR 50F VALLEYS. THESE PROFILES SUPPORT
THE POTENTIAL FOR MTNS SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN IN THE VALLEYS...DUE TO WARM
BL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...SFC LOW NORTH OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WITH
FRONTAL OCCLUSION EXTENDING BACK ACROSS NEW YORK AND ONTARIO
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...4-6SM -RA NOTED APPROACHING MPV. SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH VFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY
GOING DOWN TO MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS MVFR VISIBILITY IN
RAIN...DRIZZLE...AND/OR MIST. THIS LINE OF THINKING IS SUPPORTED
BY BOTH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND 21Z RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS TO LINGER INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST 8-10 KTS WITH PASSAGE OF
SFC LOW.

EXPECT A CONTINUATION AT LEAST MVFR STRATOCUMULUS TO LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND MAINTAINS PLENTY OF LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND.
EXPECT SOME OF THIS MOISTURE TO FALL AS UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY AT SLK AND MPV WITH VFR
VISIBILITIES ELSEWHERE. NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN AT OR AROUND 10
KTS. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MIXING CAN TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY
BUT ANY BREAKS IN OVC/BETTER MIXING COULD PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN THE
HEAVIER AREAS OF PRECIP.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER/LOCONTO










000
FXUS61 KBTV 230235
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1035 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT RIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY AND REMAINING RIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE REGION RIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1020 PM EDT TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHEAST
VERMONT LATE THIS EVENING. INITIAL COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW...WHICH IS MORE OF A WIND SHIFT THAN A CHANGE IN AIRMASS...HAS
JUST ABOUT EXITED VERMONT. SECONDARY FRONT...BEHIND WHICH LIES THE
COLDER AIR...IS STILL BACK IN THE OTTAWA VALLEY. THIS SECOND
BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH RATHER STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MOVING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. AS FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND DEPARTING
LOW...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE...WITH
FOCUS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. AS AIRMASS COOLS...LOOK FOR A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. GOING FORECAST HAS
IT ALL COVERED FAIRLY WELL. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO MAKE A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THE RESULT
WAS TO RAISE MINS A COUPLE OF DEGREES MOST AREAS. EXPECT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT TUESDAY...GOING INTO WEDNESDAY...SFC/UPPER LOW
HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION...SETTING THE AREA UP FOR
NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS. FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL
BE OVER HIR TRRN DUE TO UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC CONDITIONS...WITH A
SLOW TAPER OF AREAL COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH APPROACH OF
SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. TEMPS
WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP VALLEY LOCALES ALL -RW DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH -RW/-SW MIX FOR HIR TRRN. AREAS SHOULD SEE A COUPLE
TENTHS OVERALL FOR QPF...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF -SW OVER HIR TRRN.
POPS DUE TAPER SHARPLY GOING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT W/ MAIN FOCUS
BEING NE VT TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP IN NE
VT FOR THURSDAY MORNING GIVING WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DECENT 24-HR STRETCH OF WX DURING THIS TIME
ONCE -RW/-SW CLRS THE NE KINGDOM. OVERALL FOR TEMPS 40S MAINLY FOR
WEDNESDAY HIGHS AND LIFTING INTO THE 50S FOR THURSDAY WITH AREA
SEEING FULL SUNSHINE. OVERNGT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S IN
VALLEY LOCALES DOWN TO THE TEENS/20S IN HIR TRRN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...LONG TERM STARTS DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON FRIDAY...BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH REGARDS TO MAGNITUDE OF TROF AND
ASSOCIATED CAA. FOR FRIDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN MAINLY CLR SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S MTNS
TO 60S VALLEYS. HAVE NOTED THE 12Z ECWMF IS MUCH WARMER WITH
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 5-7C...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW L70S. FOR
SAT INTO SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT RACES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NE CONUS...WITH SECONDARY ENERGY DROPPING ON BACKSIDE HELPING
TO DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION. THE TIMING OF THIS ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH MAIN TROF WL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON OUR
TEMPS/WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. CRNT GFS/ECMWF HAVE FLIP FLOPPED
AGAIN ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH GFS SUPPORTING A COOLER/WETTER
SOLUTION WITH SOME WHITE IN THE MTNS...WHILE THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF
IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND WARMER/DRIER. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON
DEPTH OF TROF AND AMOUNT OF LLVL CAA BEHIND SFC BOUNDARY...WL
MENTION TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND BLW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH CHC SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. PROGGED
85H TEMPS RANGE BTWN 0-2C ON SAT...RESULTING IN HIGHS 40S MTNS TO
50S VALLEYS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40S VALLEYS ON SAT NIGHT.
MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -5C AND
-7C AND 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES BTWN 530 AND
534...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40S TO NEAR 50F
VALLEYS. THESE PROFILES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MTNS SNOW
SHOWERS AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS...DUE TO WARM BL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...SFC LOW NORTH OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN WITH
FRONTAL OCCLUSION EXTENDING BACK ACROSS NEW YORK AND ONTARIO
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...4-6SM -RA NOTED APPROACHING MPV. SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH VFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY
GOING DOWN TO MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS MVFR VISIBILITY IN
RAIN...DRIZZLE...AND/OR MIST. THIS LINE OF THINKING IS SUPPORTED
BY BOTH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND 21Z RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. EXPECT
MVFR TO IFR STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST 8-10 KTS WITH PASSAGE OF SFC LOW.

EXPECT A CONTINUATION AT LEAST MVFR STRATOCUMULUS TO LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND MAINTAINS PLENTY OF LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND.
EXPECT SOME OF THIS MOISTURE TO FALL AS UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY AT SLK AND MPV WITH VFR
VISIBILITIES ELSEWHERE. NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN AT OR AROUND 10
KTS. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MIXING CAN TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY
BUT ANY BREAKS IN OVC/BETTER MIXING COULD PRODUCE OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLER AND UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDS NIGHT WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...AND SOME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
KSLK/KMPV IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS INTO
FRIDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY WITH RAIN ARRIVING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN THE
HEAVIER AREAS OF PRECIP.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER/LOCONTO







000
FXUS61 KALY 230204
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1004 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT...AND OFF
THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN IN
VALLEYS...AND SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
FAIR AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
JUST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS HEADING THROUGH THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...THAT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
ENERGY...AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS COULD INCREASE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ADJUSTING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE DECREASE IN COVERAGE IN THE
NEAR TERM...AND THE POTENTIAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TOWARD SUNRISE.
SOME OTHER VERY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

PREV AFD DESCRIBES FEATURES IN MORE DETAIL AND IS BELOW...

AFTER THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BAND OF SHOWERS PASSES THROUGH...THERE
SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE PRECIP FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS SOME DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
HOWEVER...AFTER AROUND 3 OR 4 AM...A POTENT VORT
MAX/SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION...WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN PA/SOUTHERN NYS...AND THEN ACROSS
SE NYS AROUND DAYBREAK. IMMEDIATELY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THIS
FEATURE...WE EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE ONCE
AGAIN. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
FEATURE...ESP REGARDING HOW FAR NORTH OR SOUTH IT TRACKS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT IT SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...WILL INCLUDE INCREASING POPS TOWARD THE LIKELY RANGE FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN OR SHOWERS OCCURS AROUND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE...AND ALTHOUGH A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS OR PERHAPS
EMBEDDED THUNDER IN ISOLATED AREAS.

AS FOR TEMPS...HAVE SIDED ON THE MILDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST SOME CLOUDS...AND A BIT OF WIND DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST MINS IN THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER 30S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL PASS SOMEWHERE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. DEFORMATION ON
THE NORTHERN/NW SIDE SHOULD FAVOR RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...ESP FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS TO THE S AND
E. AS THIS FEATURE PULLS FARTHER E...WE EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
RAIN SHOWERS TO DECREASE LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT. SOME SNOW MAY BE MIXED IN AT TIMES ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREDOMINATE AS THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL PASSES
THROUGH. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT
SOME WIND GUSTS TO REACH 40-45 MPH AT TIMES...ESP WITHIN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.
AS FOR MAX TEMPS...EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPS THAN RECENT
DAYS...MAINLY REACHING THE MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS MAY ONLY
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S.

WED NT-THU NT...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT WED EVE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT BRISK...SO ALTHOUGH A
CHILLY AIR MASS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT
UNDERGO THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR WED NT. EXPECT MOST MINS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S
ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ON THU...A NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH AS THE SFC LOW IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ONLY
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY. IN ADDITION...DEEPER MIXING IS EXPECTED FOR THU
AFTERNOON. SO...STILL EXPECT RATHER GUSTY WINDS...ESP IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 30-40
MPH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MORE
SUNSHINE/DEEPER MIXING SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN MILDER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR IN SOME VALLEY AREAS. THEN FOR THU NT...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER
QUICKLY...BEFORE LEVELING OFF LATER AT NIGHT AS SOME HIGH/MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARRIVE. EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S IN MOST
AREAS.

FRI-FRI NT...THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
LOOKS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...AND WEAK. AT THIS TIME...WILL
INDICATE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR FRI AFTN...AND CHC POPS FRI
NT...FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS ON FRI SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS AND 55-60 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI
NT MINS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER
3OS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACK THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS...HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S...WITH 50S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN SOURCES OF GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES AS TO
THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF UPPER ENERGY LATER SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT THERE IS A CONSENSUS THAT HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER
WEATHER SHOULD BUILD EAST INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  THERE
IS...HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AS TO THE POSITION AND
AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL U.S.
THE SPECIFICS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES CAN BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION OR NOT...WHICH WILL
DETERMINE IF WE HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S...OR HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 60S.

FOR NOW SUGGESTING COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING DAYTIME INSTABILITY CLOUDINESS WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE
UPPER LOW MOVING OUT A BIT SLOWER. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AGAIN IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH SOME 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY
TUESDAY...ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER LOW IN THE
MIDWEST TO OH VALLEY AND BETTER RIDGING OVER OUR REGION.  THERE
COULD BE A LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION LATER
TUESDAY BUT AGAIN...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ON THE FINE
DETAILS OF TIMING OF WARM ADVECTION...CLOUDS AND ADVANCING
PRECIPITATION. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS DECREASED BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
WEST ARE MOVING EAST AND COULD AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT. THE WIND
SHIFT BOUNDARY SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN LIGHT WEST WINDS BELOW 10 KT. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN HAVE REMAINED MAINLY
VFR...WITH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR. KEEPING PREDOMINANT
CONDITIONS VFR SINCE UPSTREAM CONDITIONS DO NOT INDICATE
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROPPING OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH TOMORROW...SO KEEPING VCSH THROUHG THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 00Z TOMORROW.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT 10 KT OR LESS. AFTER THE FRONT THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO WEST OR NORTHWEST AT THE SAME SPEEDS...THEN THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 35-45 MPH LIKELY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

     WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT...AND OFF
THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN IN
VALLEYS...AND SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.
FAIR AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...AT 25-35 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
40-45 MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO 15-25 MPH WED
NT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 25-35 MPH LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 80-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...WITH SOME
SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE RH WILL THEN FALL TO 35-45 PERCENT IN
VALLEYS...AND 45-65 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WED
AFTERNOON. THE RH WILL THEN RECOVER TO 65-80 PERCENT WED
NT...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE FOR THU AFTN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED BY WED AFTN. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THU-THU NT...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO
SAT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH WED AM. THESE RAINFALL
AMTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL








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