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000
FXUS61 KALY 181032
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
632 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER TODAY...WITH MORNING SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TRACKS EAST. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN
OR SNOW TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
TONIGHT. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH JUST SOME PATCHY HIGH THIN CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND SOME PATCHES OF LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. WE EXPECT SKIES TO BE MAINLY SUNNY THIS
MORNING...BUT HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
TRACKING EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME PARTLY TO EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES...AS A
THICKENING VEIL OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPS.

WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWER CLOUDS
WHICH ARE CURRENTLY POOLING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL PA. SOME OF THESE
MAY EVENTUALLY TRY TO DRIFT NORTH...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS
LATER THIS MORNING. THIS MAY ERODE AS IT REACHES OUR REGION.

AFTER OUR CHILLY MORNING TEMPS IN THE 20S IN MOST AREAS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REACH SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY GUST TO
AROUND...OR SLIGHTLY OVER 20 MPH IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AM. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A FAIR AMT OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE SCARCE...WITH MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINING IN A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE GULF
COAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS. SO...AT THIS TIME WE ONLY EXPECT
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHICH MAY SPREAD AS FAR S AS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND
PERHAPS SOME UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN WOULD FALL...BUT ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR
AFTER MIDNIGHT COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS SOME COOLER AIR SEEPS
SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT
MINS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WITH MAINLY MID TO UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE AS A BIT OF WIND...AND SOME CLOUDS KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY
MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS.

SAT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION SAT AM. AGAIN...SOME SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES COULD OCCUR WITH...OR IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE
REGION...SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE SAT MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MIXING DEPTH SHOULD DEEPEN TO BETWEEN
875-850 MB...OR PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER...ALLOWING FOR MAX TEMPS TO
REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS...WITH GENERALLY 50S
ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE CATSKILLS AND ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER MAXES ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...WHERE ONLY
40S ARE EXPECTED DUE TO PERSISTENT COOL AIR ADVECTION.

SAT NT-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS.
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL SHOULD ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE CHILLY 20S TO LOWER 30S IN MOST AREAS SAT NT/SUN AM...WITH
PERHAPS SOME TEENS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. A
QUICK REBOUND IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...AS DEEP MIXING AND
SOME LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALLOWS MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...WITH 50S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
SOME PATCHY HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS COULD REACH NW AREAS BY LATE
SUNDAY.

SUN NT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION MAY ALLOW FOR SOME CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS OF RAIN
IN VALLEYS...AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE AT
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
STRENGTH...EXACT PATH...AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE...HAVE LIMITED POPS TO ONLY THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MIN
TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN SAT NT DUE TO SOME CLOUDS AND A
BREEZE...WITH MAINLY 30S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY IN MOST AREAS ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS NORTH AS FA WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS MAINE AND A
COLD FRONT BACK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION ON TUESDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. THUS
MOST OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK WET WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACRS
THE FA SO WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ON OUR DOOR STEP SO EXPECT DIMINISHING
WINDS AND A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 SOUTHEAST. MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60 SOUTHEAST. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST AND
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 60S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 12Z SATURDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KPOU WHERE
SOME STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES. MOST OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WITH
MAINLY BKN250 CONDITIONS. THE CEILINGS WILL LOWER THIS EVENING TO
OVC120 AND REMAIN SO TONIGHT.

FOR TODAY WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AT GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KTS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...MINIMUM RH OF AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD GUST INTO THE 20-25 MPH RANGE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 5-15 MPH
TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND INCREASE
TO 15-25 MPH.

THE RH IS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE IN
VALLEYS...AND 35-50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RH WILL RECOVER INTO THE 75-85 PERCENT RANGE
TONIGHT...THEN FALL TO 20-30 PERCENT FOR SAT AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIGHT...WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
AMTS REMAINING UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER IS AT MAJOR FLOOD AND HAS CRESTED.
BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT
FALLS BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

OVERALL LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/LFM
NEAR TERM...KL/LFM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL/LFM







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000
FXUS61 KBTV 180856
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
456 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO SEASONAL NORMALS TO END THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY FOR A
NICE END TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 444 AM EDT FRIDAY...TODAY WILL START OFF WITH SUNNY AND DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST
THROUGH THE DAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM GREAT LAKES
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH A WEAK TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR
CWA THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FRONT
APPROACHES THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY WITH A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN BY THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 444 AM EDT FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY
CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THOUGH BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW...WELL NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND NO MORE THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BY
SATURDAY MORNING. FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ON SATURDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING DURING THE MORNING HOURS...LINGERING
THE LONGEST IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...BUT ENDED THERE EVEN BY
18Z. COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...KEEPING
SATURDAY COLDER THAN TODAY. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COLD
WITH TEMPS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LIGHT WINDS.
SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE DRY BUT WARMER AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
EASTWARD AND RETURN FLOW INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT FRIDAY...

A SHOWERY PERIOD IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY TUE-WED NEXT WEEK AS
PATTERN AMPLIFIES NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A DIGGING LONG WAVE TROF
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION SO
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN THIS GENERAL
SOLUTION, BUT ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF DIGGING AND
EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST ON WED
AND HOW FAST IT PULLS AWAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET MONDAY UNDER
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A
WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT MAY BE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
AREA. THIS MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWER TO NORTHERN AREAS ON
MONDAY SO HAVE A LOW CHANCE POP THERE. WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND +4C
SHOULD HAVE HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

ON TUESDAY THE TROF REALLY DIGS IN WITH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHEAST US. COOLER AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN AS THE SLOW
SLIDES EAST BUT TUES EVENING. TUESDAY INTO TUE NIGHT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE THE HIGHEST POP OF THE PERIOD AND IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS
WILL BE 55 TO 60 ON TUE BEFORE COOLING OFF INTO THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S AT NIGHT.

BY EARLY WEDNESDAY THIS LOW CONSOLIDATES SOMEWHERE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST PUTTING OUR REGION INTO A COOLER AND MOIST
NORTHERLY FLOW. STILL A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND AS IT DOES PULLS EVEN
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION SO ANY LINGERING SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE ENDING EARLY THU WITH LOWS IN THE
30S TO LOW 40S.

THURSDAY SHOULD FEATURE CLEARING SKIES WITH HIGHS 55 TO 60 AS THE
UPPER TROF AND LOW PRESSURE MOVE EAST AWAY FROM US AND RIDGING
ALOFT INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR EXPECTED THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFT 00Z SAT ESPECIALLY KMSS/KSLK.

OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
TO THE WEST. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW AMD GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT TODAY DURING MIDDAY.

HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LOWER AND THICKEN DURING THE
DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST NEARING
KMSS/KSLK BY 06Z SAT. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR KMSS/KSLK AFTER 00Z
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS BUT NOT LIKELY TO AFFECT VSBY TOO
MUCH.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06 TO 12Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE. COULD HAVE BRIEF SNOW SHOWER AT KSLK.

12Z SATURDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY....BECOMING VFR WITH A COOL NW FLOW
WITH G25 KTS MIDDAY.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON








000
FXUS61 KALY 180820
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
420 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER TODAY...WITH MORNING SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TRACKS EAST. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN
OR SNOW TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
TONIGHT. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH JUST SOME PATCHY HIGH THIN CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND SOME PATCHES OF LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. WE EXPECT SKIES TO BE MAINLY SUNNY THIS
MORNING...BUT HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
TRACKING EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BECOME PARTLY TO EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES...AS A THICKENING
VEIL OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH SEASONABLE LEVELS IN MOST AREAS
TODAY...WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST
VALLEYS...AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY GUST TO
AROUND...OR SLIGHTLY OVER 20 MPH IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AM. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A FAIR AMT OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE SCARCE...WITH MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINING IN A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE GULF
COAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS. SO...AT THIS TIME WE ONLY EXPECT
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHICH MAY SPREAD AS FAR S AS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND
PERHAPS SOME UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN WOULD FALL...BUT ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR
AFTER MIDNIGHT COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS SOME COOLER AIR SEEPS
SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT
MINS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WITH MAINLY MID TO UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE AS A BIT OF WIND...AND SOME CLOUDS KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY
MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS.

SAT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION SAT AM. AGAIN...SOME SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES COULD OCCUR WITH...OR IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE
REGION...SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE SAT MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MIXING DEPTH SHOULD DEEPEN TO BETWEEN
875-850 MB...OR PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER...ALLOWING FOR MAX TEMPS TO
REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS...WITH GENERALLY 50S
ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE CATSKILLS AND ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER MAXES ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...WHERE ONLY
40S ARE EXPECTED DUE TO PERSISTENT COOL AIR ADVECTION.

SAT NT-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS.
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL SHOULD ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE CHILLY 20S TO LOWER 30S IN MOST AREAS SAT NT/SUN AM...WITH
PERHAPS SOME TEENS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. A
QUICK REBOUND IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...AS DEEP MIXING AND
SOME LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALLOWS MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE
LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...WITH 50S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
SOME PATCHY HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS COULD REACH NW AREAS BY LATE
SUNDAY.

SUN NT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION MAY ALLOW FOR SOME CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS OF RAIN
IN VALLEYS...AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE AT
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
STRENGTH...EXACT PATH...AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE...HAVE LIMITED POPS TO ONLY THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MIN
TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN SAT NT DUE TO SOME CLOUDS AND A
BREEZE...WITH MAINLY 30S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY IN MOST AREAS ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS NORTH AS FA WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS MAINE AND A
COLD FRONT BACK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION ON TUESDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. THUS
MOST OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK WET WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACRS
THE FA SO WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ON OUR DOOR STEP SO EXPECT DIMINISHING
WINDS AND A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 SOUTHEAST. MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60 SOUTHEAST. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST AND
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 60S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z SATURDAY. EXPECT MAINLY SKC
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GIVING WAY TO
BKN200 CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING FRIDAY AND EVENTUALLY OVC120 BY
FRIDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TAF SITES DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD EXCEPT AT KALB WHERE ESE WINDS
WILL BE ARND 8 KTS. ON FRIDAY WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AT GENERALLY 5
TO 10 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SATURDAY
NIGHT:NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL
IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...MINIMUM RH OF AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD GUST INTO THE 20-25 MPH RANGE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 5-15 MPH
TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND INCREASE
TO 15-25 MPH.

THE RH IS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE IN
VALLEYS...AND 35-50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RH WILL RECOVER INTO THE 75-85 PERCENT RANGE
TONIGHT...THEN FALL TO 20-30 PERCENT FOR SAT AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIGHT...WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
AMTS REMAINING UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER IS AT MAJOR FLOOD AND HAS CRESTED.
BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT
FALLS BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

OVERALL LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/LFM
NEAR TERM...KL/LFM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL/IAA/LFM








000
FXUS61 KBTV 180757
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
357 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO SEASONAL NORMALS TO END THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY FOR A
NICE END TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 122 AM EDT FRIDAY...ONLY ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE LATEST UPDATE
WAS TO CONTINUE TO RAISE OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW.

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE WITH
LATEST UPDATE...MAINLY TO INPUT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO
GRIDS. BASED ON LATEST DATA AND TRENDS...HAVE RAISED TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEYS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

EARLIER DISCUSSION... QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. OUTSIDE OF A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS
DRIFTING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA...CONDITIONS WILL
BE MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH
A FEW TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS OF THE DACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT THURSDAY...SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START THE
DAY ON FRIDAY BUT CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC DRAGS A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...925 TEMPS REBOUND
NICELY FROM BELOW 0C IN THE MORNING TO +3-5C BY THE AFTERNOON
SUPPORTING HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE 50S VALLEYS...TO MID/UPPER 40S
ELSEWHERE. FRONT APPROACHES THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE IN THE
DAY WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN BY SUNSET. DUE TO THE DRY
ANTECEDENT SURFACE CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH WEAK LIFT AND A VERY
THIN RIBBON OF 1000-700MB MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...NOT
EXPECTED MORE THAN A TENTH OF QPF AREA-WIDE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AS IT DOES SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THOUGH...MEAN BL TEMPS DO SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND NE VT...BUT
SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH.

FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING
PRECIP ACROSS NE VT ENDING BY MID-DAY. 850-925MB TEMPS CRASH BACK
BELOW 0C ON COLD NW FLOW SO DON`T EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S...MAYBE TOUCH 50 IN THE VALLEYS IF WE`RE LUCKY.
ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 20S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT FRIDAY...

A SHOWERY PERIOD IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY TUE-WED NEXT WEEK AS
PATTERN AMPLIFIES NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A DIGGING LONG WAVE TROF
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION SO
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN THIS GENERAL SOLUTION,
BUT ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF DIGGING AND EXACTLY
WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST ON WED AND HOW
FAST IT PULLS AWAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET MONDAY UNDER AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A WEAK
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT MAY BE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA.
THIS MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWER TO NORTHERN AREAS ON MONDAY SO
HAVE A LOW CHANCE POP THERE. WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND +4C SHOULD HAVE
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

ON TUESDAY THE TROF REALLY DIGS IN WITH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHEAST US. COOLER AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN AS THE SLOW
SLIDES EAST BUT TUES EVENING. TUESDAY INTO TUE NIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE THE HIGHEST POP OF THE PERIOD AND IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL
BE 55 TO 60 ON TUE BEFORE COOLING OFF INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S
AT NIGHT.

BY EARLY WEDNESDAY THIS LOW CONSOLIDATES SOMEWHERE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST PUTTING OUR REGION INTO A COOLER AND MOIST NORTHERLY
FLOW. STILL A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND AS IT DOES PULLS EVEN
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION SO ANY LINGERING SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE ENDING EARLY THU WITH LOWS IN THE 30S
TO LOW 40S.

THURSDAY SHOULD FEATURE CLEARING SKIES WITH HIGHS 55 TO 60 AS THE
UPPER TROF AND LOW PRESSURE MOVE EAST AWAY FROM US AND RIDGING
ALOFT INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR EXPECTED THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFT 00Z SAT ESPECIALLY KMSS/KSLK.

OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
TO THE WEST. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW AMD GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT TODAY DURING MIDDAY.

HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LOWER AND THICKEN DURING THE
DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST NEARING
KMSS/KSLK BY 06Z SAT. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR KMSS/KSLK AFTER 00Z
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS BUT NOT LIKELY TO AFFECT VSBY TOO
MUCH.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06 TO 12Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE. COULD HAVE BRIEF SNOW SHOWER AT KSLK.

12Z SATURDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY....BECOMING VFR WITH A COOL NW FLOW WITH
G25 KTS MIDDAY.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON








000
FXUS61 KBTV 180556
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
156 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO SEASONAL NORMALS TO END THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY FOR A
NICE END TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 122 AM EDT FRIDAY...ONLY ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE LATEST UPDATE
WAS TO CONTINUE TO RAISE OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW.

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE WITH
LATEST UPDATE...MAINLY TO INPUT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO
GRIDS. BASED ON LATEST DATA AND TRENDS...HAVE RAISED TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEYS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

EARLIER DISCUSSION... QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. OUTSIDE OF A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS
DRIFTING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA...CONDITIONS WILL
BE MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH
A FEW TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS OF THE DACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT THURSDAY...SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START
THE DAY ON FRIDAY BUT CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC DRAGS A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...925 TEMPS REBOUND
NICELY FROM BELOW 0C IN THE MORNING TO +3-5C BY THE AFTERNOON
SUPPORTING HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE 50S VALLEYS...TO MID/UPPER
40S ELSEWHERE. FRONT APPROACHES THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN BY SUNSET. DUE TO THE
DRY ANTECEDENT SURFACE CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH WEAK LIFT AND A
VERY THIN RIBBON OF 1000-700MB MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...NOT EXPECTED MORE THAN A TENTH OF QPF AREA-WIDE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS IT DOES SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THOUGH...MEAN BL TEMPS DO SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND NE VT...BUT
SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH.

FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING
PRECIP ACROSS NE VT ENDING BY MID-DAY. 850-925MB TEMPS CRASH BACK
BELOW 0C ON COLD NW FLOW SO DON`T EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S...MAYBE TOUCH 50 IN THE VALLEYS IF WE`RE LUCKY.
ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 20S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EWD INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE SW WITH AN
INFLUX OF WARM AIR. UPPER LVL ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE NORTH
COUNTRY MONDAY...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...DEVELOPING A SFC LOW WHICH WILL BRING A GREATER THREAT
FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE NW AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO NEAR NORMAL. DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR EXPECTED THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFT 00Z SAT ESPECIALLY KMSS/KSLK.

OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
TO THE WEST. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW AMD GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT TODAY DURING MIDDAY.

HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LOWER AND THICKEN DURING THE
DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST NEARING
KMSS/KSLK BY 06Z SAT. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR KMSS/KSLK AFTER 00Z
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS BUT NOT LIKELY TO AFFECT VSBY TOO
MUCH.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06 TO 12Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE. COULD HAVE BRIEF SNOW SHOWER AT KSLK.

12Z SATURDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY....BECOMING VFR WITH A COOL NW FLOW WITH
G25 KTS MIDDAY.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...SISSON










000
FXUS61 KBTV 180525
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
125 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO SEASONAL NORMALS TO END THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY FOR A
NICE END TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 122 AM EDT FRIDAY...ONLY ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE LATEST UPDATE
WAS TO CONTINUE TO RAISE OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW.

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE WITH
LATEST UPDATE...MAINLY TO INPUT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO
GRIDS. BASED ON LATEST DATA AND TRENDS...HAVE RAISED TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEYS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

EARLIER DISCUSSION... QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. OUTSIDE OF A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS
DRIFTING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA...CONDITIONS WILL
BE MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH
A FEW TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS OF THE DACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT THURSDAY...SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START
THE DAY ON FRIDAY BUT CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC DRAGS A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...925 TEMPS REBOUND
NICELY FROM BELOW 0C IN THE MORNING TO +3-5C BY THE AFTERNOON
SUPPORTING HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE 50S VALLEYS...TO MID/UPPER
40S ELSEWHERE. FRONT APPROACHES THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN BY SUNSET. DUE TO THE
DRY ANTECEDENT SURFACE CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH WEAK LIFT AND A
VERY THIN RIBBON OF 1000-700MB MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...NOT EXPECTED MORE THAN A TENTH OF QPF AREA-WIDE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS IT DOES SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THOUGH...MEAN BL TEMPS DO SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND NE VT...BUT
SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH.

FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING
PRECIP ACROSS NE VT ENDING BY MID-DAY. 850-925MB TEMPS CRASH BACK
BELOW 0C ON COLD NW FLOW SO DON`T EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S...MAYBE TOUCH 50 IN THE VALLEYS IF WE`RE LUCKY.
ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 20S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EWD INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE SW WITH AN
INFLUX OF WARM AIR. UPPER LVL ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE NORTH
COUNTRY MONDAY...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...DEVELOPING A SFC LOW WHICH WILL BRING A GREATER THREAT
FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE NW AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO NEAR NORMAL. DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD... AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
SATELLITE LOOP THROUGH 2330Z THURSDAY SHOWING MAINLY HIGH THIN
CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING MAINLY
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECTING SOME SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 14Z-17Z FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR
SHOWERS WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...WGH/KGM






000
FXUS61 KALY 180519
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
119 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS. HOWEVER...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO
THE AREA MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM CANADA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR...BUT A STEADY E/SE
WIND HAS PERSISTED OR EVEN INCREASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS INTO THE BERKSHIRES...AND
LOCALLY IN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AS THE LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE CENTER OF THE STRONG SFC HIGH
RETREATING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND A WEAK SFC LOW TRACKS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED BREEZE...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME
INDICATIONS THAT IT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE TEMPS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. HAVE THEREFORE TRENDED MIN TEMPS DOWNWARD
ONCE AGAIN...CLOSER TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH GENERALLY 25-30 IN
MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER/MID 20S OUTSIDE OF THE HUDSON RIVER
AND MOHAWK RIVER VALLEYS...WITH SOME UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A ELONGATED DOMAIN OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST HALF
OF FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. LATEST 12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SECONDARY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY THAT WILL ENHANCE A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WIND FLOW IN CONJUNCTION
WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WORK TO FUNNEL INTO THE
REGION A LARGE CONTINENTAL DRY AIRMASS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

THIS SHOWS A DECREASING TRENDS IN 12Z MODEL PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
AND NUMERICAL CALCULATIONS OF A LOW POPS AND QPF SETTING UP FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LATEST 12Z MODELS RUN OUTPUTS SHOW AN
AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING FASTER ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. AS WE GO INTO 00Z SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...T850
AND T925 WINDS WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES AT THE RESPECTABLE LEVEL
BETWEEN 1C TO 3C AND 4C TO 6C. THIS WILL SUPPORT A MAINLY LIQUID
PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATION OF THE ADIRONDACKS WITH NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HIGHEST POPS AND QPF WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE ONLY CHANCE POPS EXIST AS THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF THE ABSOLUTE VORTICITY ADVECTION
ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE
US/CANADA BORDER JUST NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. QPF AMOUNTS
AT THIS TIME WILL BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO UPPER 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH AN ENHANCES SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RANGE ONLY FROM NEAR
FREEZING IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO MID AND UPPER 30S FOR THE REST OF THE
REGION.

AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW AS WE GO INTO 12Z
SATURDAY. WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...THE HEIGHT GRADIENTS WILL DEEPEN
BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WHICH WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
WESTERLY FLOW WHICH AT TIMES MAY GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH.
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SATURDAY AS THE REGION SITS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH LARGE
SURFACE DIVERGENCE PRESENT OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER
60S INT HE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY UNDER
CLEARING SKIES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WHICH BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. FLOW
WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
TO START OUT THE PERIOD WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THIS OCCUR SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA DIGGING A TROUGH OVER OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY MID WEEK.

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION INCREASING AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION. THERE ARE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH TIES
INTO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. AT THIS TIME THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...COOLING BACK
DOWN TO NORMAL FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z SATURDAY. EXPECT MAINLY SKC
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GIVING WAY TO
BKN200 CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING FRIDAY AND EVENTUALLY OVC120 BY
FRIDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TAF SITES DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD EXCEPT AT KALB WHERE ESE WINDS
WILL BE ARND 8 KTS. ON FRIDAY WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AT GENERALLY 5
TO 10 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SATURDAY
NIGHT:NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL
IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOWFALL WE HAVE IN THE PAST ONE TO TWO DAYS HAS
MADE THE GROUND HAVE A GOOD MOISTURE CONTENT. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO VALUES BETWEEN 70 AND 80 PERCENT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 10
TO 15 MPH. RH VALUES LOOK LOW...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THIS
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN
OR SNOW AROUND...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHT...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE AS IT BECOME BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND CAPITAL REGION WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 25 MPH AT TIMES. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER IS AT MAJOR FLOOD AND HAS CRESTED.
BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT
FALLS BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

OVERALL LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. MAIN STEMS RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/LFM
NEAR TERM...KL/LFM/BGM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/LFM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/LFM








000
FXUS61 KALY 180510
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
110 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS. HOWEVER...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO
THE AREA MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM CANADA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR...BUT A STEADY E/SE
WIND HAS PERSISTED OR EVEN INCREASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS INTO THE BERKSHIRES...AND
LOCALLY IN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AS THE LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE CENTER OF THE STRONG SFC HIGH
RETREATING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND A WEAK SFC LOW TRACKS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS LOW LEVEL GRADIENT AND WIND FLOW
MAY PERSIST FOR THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE...HAVE
RAISED FORECAST MINS BY 3-5 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH 20S
STILL EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH
LOWER 30S NOW EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
REGION...AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A ELONGATED DOMAIN OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST HALF
OF FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. LATEST 12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SECONDARY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY THAT WILL ENHANCE A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WIND FLOW IN CONJUNCTION
WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WORK TO FUNNEL INTO THE
REGION A LARGE CONTINENTAL DRY AIRMASS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

THIS SHOWS A DECREASING TRENDS IN 12Z MODEL PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
AND NUMERICAL CALCULATIONS OF A LOW POPS AND QPF SETTING UP FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LATEST 12Z MODELS RUN OUTPUTS SHOW AN
AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING FASTER ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. AS WE GO INTO 00Z SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...T850
AND T925 WINDS WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES AT THE RESPECTABLE LEVEL
BETWEEN 1C TO 3C AND 4C TO 6C. THIS WILL SUPPORT A MAINLY LIQUID
PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATION OF THE ADIRONDACKS WITH NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HIGHEST POPS AND QPF WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE ONLY CHANCE POPS EXIST AS THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF THE ABSOLUTE VORTICITY ADVECTION
ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE
US/CANADA BORDER JUST NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. QPF AMOUNTS
AT THIS TIME WILL BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO UPPER 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH AN ENHANCES SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RANGE ONLY FROM NEAR
FREEZING IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO MID AND UPPER 30S FOR THE REST OF THE
REGION.

AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW AS WE GO INTO 12Z
SATURDAY. WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...THE HEIGHT GRADIENTS WILL DEEPEN
BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WHICH WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
WESTERLY FLOW WHICH AT TIMES MAY GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH.
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SATURDAY AS THE REGION SITS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH LARGE
SURFACE DIVERGENCE PRESENT OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER
60S INT HE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY UNDER
CLEARING SKIES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WHICH BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. FLOW
WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
TO START OUT THE PERIOD WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THIS OCCUR SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA DIGGING A TROUGH OVER OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY MID WEEK.

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION INCREASING AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION. THERE ARE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH TIES
INTO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. AT THIS TIME THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...COOLING BACK
DOWN TO NORMAL FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z SATURDAY. EXPECT MAINLY SKC
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GIVING WAY TO
BKN200 CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING FRIDAY AND EVENTUALLY OVC120 BY
FRIDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TAF SITES DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD EXCEPT AT KALB WHERE ESE WINDS
WILL BE ARND 8 KTS. ON FRIDAY WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AT GENERALLY 5
TO 10 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SATURDAY
NIGHT:NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL
IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOWFALL WE HAVE IN THE PAST ONE TO TWO DAYS HAS
MADE THE GROUND HAVE A GOOD MOISTURE CONTENT. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO VALUES BETWEEN 70 AND 80 PERCENT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 10
TO 15 MPH. RH VALUES LOOK LOW...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THIS
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN
OR SNOW AROUND...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHT...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE AS IT BECOME BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND CAPITAL REGION WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 25 MPH AT TIMES. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER IS AT MAJOR FLOOD AND HAS CRESTED.
BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT
FALLS BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

OVERALL LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. MAIN STEMS RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/LFM
NEAR TERM...KL/LFM/BGM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/LFM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/LFM








000
FXUS61 KBTV 180251
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1051 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
SEASONAL NORMALS TO END THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY FOR A
NICE END TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1042 PM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE WITH LATEST UPDATE...MAINLY TO INPUT LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO GRIDS. BASED ON LATEST DATA AND
TRENDS...HAVE RAISED TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN
CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. OUTSIDE OF A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS DRIFTING SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND
DRY...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH A FEW TEENS
POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS OF THE DACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT THURSDAY...SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START
THE DAY ON FRIDAY BUT CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC DRAGS A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...925 TEMPS REBOUND
NICELY FROM BELOW 0C IN THE MORNING TO +3-5C BY THE AFTERNOON
SUPPORTING HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE 50S VALLEYS...TO MID/UPPER 40S
ELSEWHERE. FRONT APPROACHES THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE IN THE
DAY WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN BY SUNSET. DUE TO THE DRY
ANTECEDENT SURFACE CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH WEAK LIFT AND A VERY
THIN RIBBON OF 1000-700MB MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...NOT
EXPECTED MORE THAN A TENTH OF QPF AREA-WIDE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AS IT DOES SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH...MEAN
BL TEMPS DO SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND NE VT...BUT SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO
A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH.

FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING
PRECIP ACROSS NE VT ENDING BY MID-DAY. 850-925MB TEMPS CRASH BACK
BELOW 0C ON COLD NW FLOW SO DON`T EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S...MAYBE TOUCH 50 IN THE VALLEYS IF WE`RE LUCKY.
ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 20S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EWD INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE SW WITH AN
INFLUX OF WARM AIR. UPPER LVL ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE NORTH
COUNTRY MONDAY...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...DEVELOPING A SFC LOW WHICH WILL BRING A GREATER THREAT
FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE NW AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO NEAR NORMAL. DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. SATELLITE
LOOP THROUGH 2330Z THURSDAY SHOWING MAINLY HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING SOME
SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 14Z-17Z FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR
SHOWERS WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...WGH/KGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 180233
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1033 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS. HOWEVER...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO
THE AREA MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM CANADA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR...BUT A STEADY E/SE
WIND HAS PERSISTED OR EVEN INCREASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS INTO THE BERKSHIRES...AND
LOCALLY IN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AS THE LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE CENTER OF THE STRONG SFC HIGH
RETREATING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND A WEAK SFC LOW TRACKS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS LOW LEVEL GRADIENT AND WIND FLOW
MAY PERSIST FOR THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE...HAVE
RAISED FORECAST MINS BY 3-5 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH 20S
STILL EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH
LOWER 30S NOW EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
REGION...AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A ELONGATED DOMAIN OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST HALF
OF FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. LATEST 12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SECONDARY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY THAT WILL ENHANCE A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WIND FLOW IN CONJUNCTION
WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WORK TO FUNNEL INTO THE
REGION A LARGE CONTINENTAL DRY AIRMASS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

THIS SHOWS A DECREASING TRENDS IN 12Z MODEL PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
AND NUMERICAL CALCULATIONS OF A LOW POPS AND QPF SETTING UP FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LATEST 12Z MODELS RUN OUTPUTS SHOW AN
AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING FASTER ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. AS WE GO INTO 00Z SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...T850
AND T925 WINDS WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES AT THE RESPECTABLE LEVEL
BETWEEN 1C TO 3C AND 4C TO 6C. THIS WILL SUPPORT A MAINLY LIQUID
PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATION OF THE ADIRONDACKS WITH NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HIGHEST POPS AND QPF WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE ONLY CHANCE POPS EXIST AS THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF THE ABSOLUTE VORTICITY ADVECTION
ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE
US/CANADA BORDER JUST NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. QPF AMOUNTS
AT THIS TIME WILL BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO UPPER 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH AN ENHANCES SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RANGE ONLY FROM NEAR
FREEZING IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO MID AND UPPER 30S FOR THE REST OF THE
REGION.

AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW AS WE GO INTO 12Z
SATURDAY. WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...THE HEIGHT GRADIENTS WILL DEEPEN
BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WHICH WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
WESTERLY FLOW WHICH AT TIMES MAY GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH.
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SATURDAY AS THE REGION SITS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH LARGE
SURFACE DIVERGENCE PRESENT OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER
60S INT HE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY UNDER
CLEARING SKIES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WHICH BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. FLOW
WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
TO START OUT THE PERIOD WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THIS OCCUR SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA DIGGING A TROUGH OVER OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY MID WEEK.

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION INCREASING AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION. THERE ARE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH TIES
INTO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. AT THIS TIME THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...COOLING BACK
DOWN TO NORMAL FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...00Z/SATURDAY.
TONIGHT...SCT TO BKN CI/CS TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS.
FRIDAY...BKN CI/CS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING UP TO 10KTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SATURDAY
NIGHT:NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL
IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOWFALL WE HAVE IN THE PAST ONE TO TWO DAYS HAS
MADE THE GROUND HAVE A GOOD MOISTURE CONTENT. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO VALUES BETWEEN 70 AND 80 PERCENT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 10
TO 15 MPH. RH VALUES LOOK LOW...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THIS
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN
OR SNOW AROUND...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHT...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE AS IT BECOME BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND CAPITAL REGION WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 25 MPH AT TIMES. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER IS AT MAJOR FLOOD AND HAS CRESTED.
BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT
FALLS BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

OVERALL LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. MAIN STEMS RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/LFM
NEAR TERM...KL/LFM/BGM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/LFM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/LFM








000
FXUS61 KALY 180014
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
814 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS. HOWEVER...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO
THE AREA MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM CANADA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT...A THIN CANOPY OF CI/CS WAS ACROSS THE REGION
PER METARS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY AS THIS WILL THIN OUT FURTHER
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY TEMPS TO AN
OTHERWISE ONGOING EXCELLENT FORECAST.

AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN MAINE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR NEAR TERM FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BELOW AVERAGE VALUES RANGING BETWEEN THE
LOWER 20S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO MID AND UPPER 20S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND EASTERLY. ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN
10 TO 15 MPH IS EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A ELONGATED DOMAIN OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST HALF
OF FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. LATEST 12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SECONDARY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY THAT WILL ENHANCE A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WIND FLOW IN CONJUNCTION
WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WORK TO FUNNEL INTO THE
REGION A LARGE CONTINENTAL DRY AIRMASS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

THIS SHOWS A DECREASING TRENDS IN 12Z MODEL PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
AND NUMERICAL CALCULATIONS OF A LOW POPS AND QPF SETTING UP FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LATEST 12Z MODELS RUN OUTPUTS SHOW AN
AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING FASTER ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. AS WE GO INTO 00Z SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...T850
AND T925 WINDS WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES AT THE RESPECTABLE LEVEL
BETWEEN 1C TO 3C AND 4C TO 6C. THIS WILL SUPPORT A MAINLY LIQUID
PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATION OF THE ADIRONDACKS WITH NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HIGHEST POPS AND QPF WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE ONLY CHANCE POPS EXIST AS THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF THE ABSOLUTE VORTICITY ADVECTION
ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE
US/CANADA BORDER JUST NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. QPF AMOUNTS
AT THIS TIME WILL BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO UPPER 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH AN ENHANCES SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RANGE ONLY FROM NEAR
FREEZING IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO MID AND UPPER 30S FOR THE REST OF THE
REGION.

AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW AS WE GO INTO 12Z
SATURDAY. WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...THE HEIGHT GRADIENTS WILL DEEPEN
BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WHICH WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
WESTERLY FLOW WHICH AT TIMES MAY GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH.
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SATURDAY AS THE REGION SITS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH LARGE
SURFACE DIVERGENCE PRESENT OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER
60S INT HE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY UNDER
CLEARING SKIES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WHICH BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. FLOW
WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
TO START OUT THE PERIOD WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THIS OCCUR SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA DIGGING A TROUGH OVER OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY MID WEEK.

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION INCREASING AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION. THERE ARE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH TIES
INTO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. AT THIS TIME THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...COOLING BACK
DOWN TO NORMAL FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...00Z/SATURDAY.
TONIGHT...SCT TO BKN CI/CS TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS.
FRIDAY...BKN CI/CS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING UP TO 10KTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SATURDAY
NIGHT:NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL
IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOWFALL WE HAVE IN THE PAST ONE TO TWO DAYS HAS
MADE THE GROUND HAVE A GOOD MOISTURE CONTENT. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO VALUES BETWEEN 70 AND 80 PERCENT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 10
TO 15 MPH. RH VALUES LOOK LOW...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THIS
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN
OR SNOW AROUND...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHT...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE AS IT BECOME BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND CAPITAL REGION WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 25 MPH AT TIMES. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER IS AT MAJOR FLOOD AND HAS CRESTED.
BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT
FALLS BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

OVERALL LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. MAIN STEMS RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM/BGM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/LFM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/LFM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KBTV 172347
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
747 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
SEASONAL NORMALS TO END THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY FOR A
NICE END TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 726 PM EDT THURSDAY...ONLY CHANGE WITH LATEST UPDATE WAS TO
INPUT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO GRIDS AND BLEND WITH EVENING
FORECAST. QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. OUTSIDE OF A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS DRIFTING SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND
DRY...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH A FEW TEENS
POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS OF THE DACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT THURSDAY...SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START
THE DAY ON FRIDAY BUT CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC DRAGS A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...925 TEMPS REBOUND
NICELY FROM BELOW 0C IN THE MORNING TO +3-5C BY THE AFTERNOON
SUPPORTING HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE 50S VALLEYS...TO MID/UPPER 40S
ELSEWHERE. FRONT APPROACHES THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE IN THE
DAY WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN BY SUNSET. DUE TO THE DRY
ANTECEDENT SURFACE CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH WEAK LIFT AND A VERY
THIN RIBBON OF 1000-700MB MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...NOT
EXPECTED MORE THAN A TENTH OF QPF AREA-WIDE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AS IT DOES SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH...MEAN
BL TEMPS DO SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND NE VT...BUT SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO
A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH.

FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING
PRECIP ACROSS NE VT ENDING BY MID-DAY. 850-925MB TEMPS CRASH BACK
BELOW 0C ON COLD NW FLOW SO DON`T EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S...MAYBE TOUCH 50 IN THE VALLEYS IF WE`RE LUCKY.
ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 20S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EWD INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE SW WITH AN
INFLUX OF WARM AIR. UPPER LVL ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE NORTH
COUNTRY MONDAY...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...DEVELOPING A SFC LOW WHICH WILL BRING A GREATER THREAT
FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE NW AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO NEAR NORMAL. DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. SATELLITE
LOOP THROUGH 2330Z THURSDAY SHOWING MAINLY HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECTING SOME
SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 14Z-17Z FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR
SHOWERS WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...WGH/KGM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 172329
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
729 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
SEASONAL NORMALS TO END THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY FOR A
NICE END TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 726 PM EDT THURSDAY...ONLY CHANGE WITH LATEST UPDATE WAS TO
INPUT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO GRIDS AND BLEND WITH EVENING
FORECAST. QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. OUTSIDE OF A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS DRIFTING SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND
DRY...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH A FEW TEENS
POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS OF THE DACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT THURSDAY...SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START
THE DAY ON FRIDAY BUT CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC DRAGS A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...925 TEMPS REBOUND
NICELY FROM BELOW 0C IN THE MORNING TO +3-5C BY THE AFTERNOON
SUPPORTING HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE 50S VALLEYS...TO MID/UPPER 40S
ELSEWHERE. FRONT APPROACHES THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE IN THE
DAY WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN BY SUNSET. DUE TO THE DRY
ANTECEDENT SURFACE CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH WEAK LIFT AND A VERY
THIN RIBBON OF 1000-700MB MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...NOT
EXPECTED MORE THAN A TENTH OF QPF AREA-WIDE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AS IT DOES SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH...MEAN
BL TEMPS DO SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND NE VT...BUT SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO
A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH.

FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING
PRECIP ACROSS NE VT ENDING BY MID-DAY. 850-925MB TEMPS CRASH BACK
BELOW 0C ON COLD NW FLOW SO DON`T EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S...MAYBE TOUCH 50 IN THE VALLEYS IF WE`RE LUCKY.
ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 20S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EWD INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE SW WITH AN
INFLUX OF WARM AIR. UPPER LVL ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE NORTH
COUNTRY MONDAY...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...DEVELOPING A SFC LOW WHICH WILL BRING A GREATER THREAT
FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE NW AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO NEAR NORMAL. DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS
PERSISTING. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 8-13 KTS...GUSTING 15-20
KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE CPV AND KRUT. KMSS WINDS WILL BE
EAST/NORTHEAST.

THIS EVENING WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 10KTS OR LESS AT ALL
TERMINALS...RECOVERING IN THE MID MORNING FRIDAY...MAINLY OUT OF
THE SOUTH AT 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS OF 18-22KTS HEADING INTO THE
MIDDAY HOURS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR
SHOWERS WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/NEILES







000
FXUS61 KALY 172029
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
429 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS. HOWEVER...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO
THE AREA MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM CANADA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FURTHER DIMINISH ACROSS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AS WE GO INTO
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
MAINE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR NEAR TERM FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BELOW AVERAGE VALUES RANGING BETWEEN THE
LOWER 20S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO MID AND UPPER 20S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND EASTERLY. ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN
10 TO 15 MPH IS EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A ELONGATED DOMAIN OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST HALF
OF FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. LATEST 12Z MODEL AND
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SECONDARY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
COAST OF NEW JERSEY THAT WILL ENHANCE A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WIND FLOW IN CONJUNCTION
WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WORK TO FUNNEL INTO THE
REGION A LARGE CONTINENTAL DRY AIRMASS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

THIS SHOWS A DECREASING TRENDS IN 12Z MODEL PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
AND NUMERICAL CALCULATIONS OF A LOW POPS AND QPF SETTING UP FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LATEST 12Z MODELS RUN OUTPUTS SHOW AN
AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING FASTER ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. AS WE GO INTO 00Z SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...T850
AND T925 WINDS WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES AT THE RESPECTABLE LEVEL
BETWEEN 1C TO 3C AND 4C TO 6C. THIS WILL SUPPORT A MAINLY LIQUID
PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATION OF THE ADIRONDACKS WITH NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HIGHEST POPS AND QPF WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE ONLY CHANCE POPS EXIST AS THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF THE ABSOLUTE VORTICITY ADVECTION
ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE
US/CANADA BORDER JUST NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. QPF AMOUNTS
AT THIS TIME WILL BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO UPPER 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH AN ENHANCES SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RANGE ONLY FROM NEAR
FREEZING IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO MID AND UPPER 30S FOR THE REST OF THE
REGION.

AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW AS WE GO INTO 12Z
SATURDAY. WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...THE HEIGHT GRADIENTS WILL DEEPEN
BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WHICH WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
WESTERLY FLOW WHICH AT TIMES MAY GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH.
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SATURDAY AS THE REGION SITS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH LARGE
SURFACE DIVERGENCE PRESENT OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER
60S INT HE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY UNDER
CLEARING SKIES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN WHICH BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. FLOW
WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
TO START OUT THE PERIOD WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THIS OCCUR SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA DIGGING A TROUGH OVER OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY MID WEEK.

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION INCREASING AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION. THERE ARE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH TIES
INTO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. AT THIS TIME THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...COOLING BACK
DOWN TO NORMAL FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...18Z/FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM OVER THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MORE CIRRUS STREAMING IN ON FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT THE TAF SITES AND WILL
REMAIN LIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH CALM WINDS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOWFALL WE HAVE IN THE PAST ONE TO TWO DAYS HAS
MADE THE GROUND HAVE A GOOD MOISTURE CONTENT. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO VALUES BETWEEN 70 AND 80 PERCENT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 10
TO 15 MPH. RH VALUES LOOK LOW...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THIS
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN
OR SNOW AROUND...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHT...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE AS IT BECOME BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND CAPITAL REGION WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 25 MPH AT TIMES. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER IS AT MAJOR FLOOD AND HAS CRESTED.
BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT
FALLS BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

OVERALL LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. MAIN STEMS RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/LFM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/LFM








000
FXUS61 KBTV 171935
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
335 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS TO END THE
WORK WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY FOR A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. OUTSIDE OF A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS
DRIFTING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA...CONDITIONS WILL
BE MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH
A FEW TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS OF THE DACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT THURSDAY...SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START
THE DAY ON FRIDAY BUT CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC DRAGS A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...925 TEMPS REBOUND
NICELY FROM BELOW 0C IN THE MORNING TO +3-5C BY THE AFTERNOON
SUPPORTING HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE 50S VALLEYS...TO MID/UPPER 40S
ELSEWHERE. FRONT APPROACHES THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE IN THE
DAY WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN BY SUNSET. DUE TO THE DRY
ANTECEDENT SURFACE CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH WEAK LIFT AND A VERY
THIN RIBBON OF 1000-700MB MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...NOT
EXPECTED MORE THAN A TENTH OF QPF AREA-WIDE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AS IT DOES SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH...MEAN
BL TEMPS DO SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND NE VT...BUT SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO
A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH.

FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING
PRECIP ACROSS NE VT ENDING BY MID-DAY. 850-925MB TEMPS CRASH BACK
BELOW 0C ON COLD NW FLOW SO DON`T EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S...MAYBE TOUCH 50 IN THE VALLEYS IF WE`RE LUCKY.
ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 20S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EWD INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE SW WITH AN
INFLUX OF WARM AIR. UPPER LVL ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE NORTH
COUNTRY MONDAY...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...DEVELOPING A SFC LOW WHICH WILL BRING A GREATER THREAT
FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE NW AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO NEAR NORMAL. DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS
PERSISTING. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 8-13 KTS...GUSTING 15-20
KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE CPV AND KRUT. KMSS WINDS WILL BE
EAST/NORTHEAST.

THIS EVENING WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 10KTS OR LESS AT ALL
TERMINALS...RECOVERING IN THE MID MORNING FRIDAY...MAINLY OUT OF
THE SOUTH AT 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS OF 18-22KTS HEADING INTO THE
MIDDAY HOURS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR
SHOWERS WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/NEILES









000
FXUS61 KBTV 171907
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
307 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS MORNING AND WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY
FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 116 PM EDT THURSDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO AFTERNOON FORECAST TO
ADJUST TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S UNDER FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 440 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. STILL LOOKING AT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ALONG
WITH DRY WEATHER FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EWD INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE SW WITH AN
INFLUX OF WARM AIR. UPPER LVL ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE NORTH
COUNTRY MONDAY...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...DEVELOPING A SFC LOW WHICH WILL BRING A GREATER THREAT
FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE NW AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO NEAR NORMAL. DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS
PERSISTING. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 8-13 KTS...GUSTING 15-20
KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE CPV AND KRUT. KMSS WINDS WILL BE
EAST/NORTHEAST.

THIS EVENING WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 10KTS OR LESS AT ALL
TERMINALS...RECOVERING IN THE MID MORNING FRIDAY...MAINLY OUT OF
THE SOUTH AT 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS OF 18-22KTS HEADING INTO THE
MIDDAY HOURS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR
SHOWERS WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A SHORT LIST OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY...
APRIL 17. PLEASE NOTE THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR KMPV AND KMSS
(1948) ARE CONSIDERABLY SHORTER THAN AT KBTV (1884).

SITERECORD DATE

KBTV 13F 1971
KMPV 17F 2003
KMSS 20F 2003

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM/NEILES
CLIMATE...JMG









000
FXUS61 KBTV 171735
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
135 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS MORNING AND WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY
FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 116 PM EDT THURSDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO AFTERNOON FORECAST TO
ADJUST TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S UNDER FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 440 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. STILL LOOKING AT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ALONG
WITH DRY WEATHER FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM EDT THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO DRASTICALLY.
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ON SUNDAY AS WELL BUT
SLOWLY SLIDING EASTWARD. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION
MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...THOUGH LOW CENTER AND BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL PASS
NORTH OF THE REGION. WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN BE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. GENERALLY A COUPLE
OF INSIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS WITH AN OTHERWISE
QUIET EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS
PERSISTING. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 8-13 KTS...GUSTING 15-20
KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE CPV AND KRUT. KMSS WINDS WILL BE
EAST/NORTHEAST.

THIS EVENING WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 10KTS OR LESS AT ALL
TERMINALS...RECOVERING IN THE MID MORNING FRIDAY...MAINLY OUT OF
THE SOUTH AT 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS OF 18-22KTS HEADING INTO THE
MIDDAY HOURS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR
SHOWERS WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A SHORT LIST OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY...
APRIL 17. PLEASE NOTE THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR KMPV AND KMSS
(1948) ARE CONSIDERABLY SHORTER THAN AT KBTV (1884).

SITERECORD DATE

KBTV 13F 1971
KMPV 17F 2003
KMSS 20F 2003

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...KGM/NEILES
CLIMATE...JMG








000
FXUS61 KALY 171732
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
132 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS. HOWEVER...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS
TO THE AREA MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM CANADA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM...CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN AND WESTERN REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUD COVERAGE
WAS ADJUSTED TO ACCOMPANY OBSERVATIONS OF PROLONGED CLOUD
COVERAGE. THE CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO THIN OUT AS WE GO
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE AND LARGE AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL CLEAR CLOUDS OUT OF THE REGION.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL SHORT OF NORMAL BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES.
NOT TOO BAD CONSIDERING WE STARTED SO COLD. ALBANY`S LOW TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING WAS 26 DEGREES THE RECORD FOR TODAY IS 21 DEGREES SET
IN 1971. POUGHKEEPSIE LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WAS 26
DEGREES THE RECORD FOR TODAY IS 22 DEGREES SET IN 1962.

OVERALL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND EASTERLY. HOWEVER WILL HAVE ENHANCED
FLOW...10 TO 15 MPH...EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...THE WIND WILL DIMINISH ONCE
MORE...AND WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO
THE 20S REGION WIDE...CLOSER TO 20 ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...CLOSER
TO 30 ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME MORE SUNSHINE
WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MORE. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MID TO UPPER 50S IN
VALLEY LOCATION.

THEN FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MOISTURE
STARVED...MORE SO THAN BEFORE. IT LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT EVEN THESE LOOK
FAIRLY LIGHT. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND
WET SNOW WITH MINOR SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS PERHAPS THE HIGHEST AREAS OF THE CATSKILLS/SOUTHERN
GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. VALLEY AREAS WILL STAY MAINLY RAIN WITH VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DECREASE FROM ALBANY AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTH IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT.

CLOUDS AND A RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A
LITTLE FRIDAY ...BUT THEY WILL STILL FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MID 30S MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION LATER SATURDAY TAKING ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS WITH IT. IT WILL TURN BREEZY WITH WIND TURNING TO THE  WEST
OR NORTHWEST AND GUSTING UP TO 25-30 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

THE AIR WILL SLIGHTLY COOL IN THE MID LEVELS...BUT SINCE WE WILL
HAVE BETTER MIXING ON SATURDAY (COMPARED TO FRIDAY) SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRIDAY...MAYBE A
COUPLE POINTS HIGHER IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY WHERE THEY SHOULD REACH AROUND 60. ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...THEY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE UPPER 40S. MOST
OTHER AREAS WILL BE IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL
REGION.

EVERYONE CHILLS DOWN AGAIN SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
DESCENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION TO BRING A CLEARING
SKY. WITH A LIGHT NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
TO AROUND FREEZING IN VALLEY LOCATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTH OF ALBANY.
IT WILL TURN CHILLY

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF WET WEATHER ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS OUR
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE WEDNESDAY.

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SUNDAY
EXPECT A DRY DAY AS A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA
AND THEN SLIDES EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE IN DAY. EXPECT
HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH OUR REGION. VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH PERIODS. EXPECT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS ON
MONDAY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SEVERAL SURFACE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE FA ON TUESDAY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE OTHER PERIODS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES PROVIDING US
WITH DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 70. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S TO MID 60S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...18Z/FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM OVER THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MORE CIRRUS STREAMING IN ON FRIDAY ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT THE TAF
SITES AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING WITH CALM WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT NIGHT-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY:
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...
     HIGH HAINES INDEX OF 5 THIS AFTERNOON...

MOST OF THE SNOW FROM TUESDAY NIGHT IS GONE. HOWEVER...OLD SNOW
STILL COVERED PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE EACH DAY...EXCEPT SATURDAY WHICH WILL FEATURE A BIT MORE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS.

THE AIR MASS WILL MODERATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. THE WIND
WILL BE LIGHT TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON...5 TO 15 MPH.
RH VALUES LOOK VERY LOW IN MOST PLACES.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BECOME CALM BUT WE WILL NOT NECESSARILY HAVE
FULL RECOVERY AS RH VALUES TOP OUT AROUND 75 PERCENT.

FRIDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 10 TO 15 MPH. RH
VALUES LOOK LOW...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THIS AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN
OR SNOW AROUND...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHT...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE AS IT BECOME BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND CAPITAL REGION WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 25 MPH AT TIMES. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE.

DRY WEATHER...MOSTLY SUNNY AND SLIGHTLY MILDER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AT HINCKLEY WEST CANADA CREEK AND AT
FORT EDWARD ON THE HUDSON RIVER WHICH ARE BOTH CURRENTLY HOLDING
NEAR FLOOD STAGE. BASED ON THE FORECASTS THESE WARNINGS WILL BE
DROPPED LATER TODAY. AS FOR RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER...IT IS
IN MAJOR FLOOD AND HAS CRESTED. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS ONLY
EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW MODERATE FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING WITH
MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT FALLS BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

OVERALL LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. MAIN STEMS RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/LFM
NEAR TERM...IAA/LFM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KBTV 171718
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
118 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS MORNING AND WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY
FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 116 PM EDT THURSDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO AFTERNOON FORECAST TO
ADJUST TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S UNDER FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 440 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. STILL LOOKING AT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ALONG
WITH DRY WEATHER FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM EDT THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO DRASTICALLY.
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ON SUNDAY AS WELL BUT
SLOWLY SLIDING EASTWARD. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION
MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...THOUGH LOW CENTER AND BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL PASS
NORTH OF THE REGION. WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN BE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. GENERALLY A COUPLE
OF INSIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS WITH AN OTHERWISE
QUIET EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TREND SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST 8-13 KTS THURSDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXCEPTION WILL BE MSS WHERE WINDS WILL BE
EAST/NORTHEAST.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR
SHOWERS WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A SHORT LIST OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY...
APRIL 17. PLEASE NOTE THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR KMPV AND KMSS
(1948) ARE CONSIDERABLY SHORTER THAN AT KBTV (1884).

SITERECORD DATE

KBTV 13F 1971
KMPV 17F 2003
KMSS 20F 2003

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES
CLIMATE...JMG








000
FXUS61 KALY 171701
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
101 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS. HOWEVER...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS
TO THE AREA MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM CANADA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM...CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN AND WESTERN REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUD COVERAGE
WAS ADJUSTED TO ACCOMPANY OBSERVATIONS OF PROLONGED CLOUD
COVERAGE. THE CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO THIN OUT AS WE GO
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE AND LARGE AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL CLEAR CLOUDS OUT OF THE REGION.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL SHORT OF NORMAL BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES.
NOT TOO BAD CONSIDERING WE STARTED SO COLD. ALBANY`S LOW TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING WAS 26 DEGREES THE RECORD FOR TODAY IS 21 DEGREES SET
IN 1971. POUGHKEEPSIE LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WAS 26
DEGREES THE RECORD FOR TODAY IS 22 DEGREES SET IN 1962.

OVERALL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND EASTERLY. HOWEVER WILL HAVE ENHANCED
FLOW...10 TO 15 MPH...EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...THE WIND WILL DIMINISH ONCE
MORE...AND WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO
THE 20S REGION WIDE...CLOSER TO 20 ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...CLOSER
TO 30 ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME MORE SUNSHINE
WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MORE. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MID TO UPPER 50S IN
VALLEY LOCATION.

THEN FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MOISTURE
STARVED...MORE SO THAN BEFORE. IT LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT EVEN THESE LOOK
FAIRLY LIGHT. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND
WET SNOW WITH MINOR SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS PERHAPS THE HIGHEST AREAS OF THE CATSKILLS/SOUTHERN
GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. VALLEY AREAS WILL STAY MAINLY RAIN WITH VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DECREASE FROM ALBANY AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTH IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT.

CLOUDS AND A RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A
LITTLE FRIDAY ...BUT THEY WILL STILL FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MID 30S MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION LATER SATURDAY TAKING ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS WITH IT. IT WILL TURN BREEZY WITH WIND TURNING TO THE  WEST
OR NORTHWEST AND GUSTING UP TO 25-30 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

THE AIR WILL SLIGHTLY COOL IN THE MID LEVELS...BUT SINCE WE WILL
HAVE BETTER MIXING ON SATURDAY (COMPARED TO FRIDAY) SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRIDAY...MAYBE A
COUPLE POINTS HIGHER IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY WHERE THEY SHOULD REACH AROUND 60. ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...THEY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE UPPER 40S. MOST
OTHER AREAS WILL BE IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL
REGION.

EVERYONE CHILLS DOWN AGAIN SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
DESCENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION TO BRING A CLEARING
SKY. WITH A LIGHT NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
TO AROUND FREEZING IN VALLEY LOCATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTH OF ALBANY.
IT WILL TURN CHILLY

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF WET WEATHER ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS OUR
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE WEDNESDAY.

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SUNDAY
EXPECT A DRY DAY AS A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA
AND THEN SLIDES EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE IN DAY. EXPECT
HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH OUR REGION. VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH PERIODS. EXPECT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS ON
MONDAY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SEVERAL SURFACE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE FA ON TUESDAY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE OTHER PERIODS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES PROVIDING US
WITH DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 70. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S TO MID 60S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
12Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO NEW
ENGLAND TODAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SOME OCCASIONAL
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS. THE CIRRUS WILL BECOME THICKER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND 10
KT BY LATE THIS MORNING...AND THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT NIGHT-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY:
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...
     HIGH HAINES INDEX OF 5 THIS AFTERNOON...

MOST OF THE SNOW FROM TUESDAY NIGHT IS GONE. HOWEVER...OLD SNOW
STILL COVERED PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE EACH DAY...EXCEPT SATURDAY WHICH WILL FEATURE A BIT MORE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS.

THE AIR MASS WILL MODERATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. THE WIND
WILL BE LIGHT TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON...5 TO 15 MPH.
RH VALUES LOOK VERY LOW IN MOST PLACES.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BECOME CALM BUT WE WILL NOT NECESSARILY HAVE
FULL RECOVERY AS RH VALUES TOP OUT AROUND 75 PERCENT.

FRIDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 10 TO 15 MPH. RH
VALUES LOOK LOW...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THIS AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN
OR SNOW AROUND...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHT...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE AS IT BECOME BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND CAPITAL REGION WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 25 MPH AT TIMES. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE.

DRY WEATHER...MOSTLY SUNNY AND SLIGHTLY MILDER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AT HINCKLEY AND KAST BRIDGE ON THE
WEST CANADA CREEK WITH BOTH JUST A HAIR ABOUT FLOOD STAGE AT THIS
TIME. ALSO...AT FORT EDWARD ON THE HUDSON RIVER WHICH IS ALSO
CURRENTLY JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. BASED ON FORECASTS THESE WARNINGS
WILL BE DROPPED TODAY. RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER IS IN MAJOR
FLOOD AND HAS CRESTED. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS ONLY
EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW MODERATE FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING
WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IS FALLS BELOW FOOD STAGE. WILL UPDATE
STATEMENTS WITH UPDATED FORECASTS LATER THIS MORNING.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS CONTINUE
TO RECEDE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD
FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
LIGHT. AT THIS POINT...WE ANTICIPATED NO ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS
WITH THIS PRECIPITATION.

DRY WEATHER WILL RESUME LATE SATURDAY INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/LFM
NEAR TERM...IAA/LFM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KALY 171454
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1054 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS. HOWEVER...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS
TO THE AREA MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM CANADA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS REGION. THEY ARE THICKER THAN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
ADJUSTED SKY COVER...TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS BASED ON
OBSERVATIONAL DATA. DID TWEAK AFTERNOON HIGHS DOWN A BIT. UPDATED
WINDS WILL LATEST GUIDANCE. CIRRUS SHOULD THIN AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL SHORT OF NORMAL BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES.
NOT TOO BAD CONSIDERING WE STARTED SO COLD. ALBANY`S LOW TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING WAS 26 DEGREES THE RECORD FOR TODAY IS 21 DEGREES SET
IN 1971. POUGHKEEPSIE LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WAS 26
DEGREES THE RECORD FOR TODAY IS 22 DEGREES SET IN 1962.

OVERALL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND EASTERLY. HOWEVER WILL HAVE ENHANCED
FLOW...10 TO 15 MPH...EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...THE WIND WILL DIMINISH ONCE
MORE...AND WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO
THE 20S REGION WIDE...CLOSER TO 20 ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...CLOSER
TO 30 ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME MORE SUNSHINE
WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MORE. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MID TO UPPER 50S IN
VALLEY LOCATION.

THEN FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MOISTURE
STARVED...MORE SO THAN BEFORE. IT LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT EVEN THESE LOOK
FAIRLY LIGHT. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND
WET SNOW WITH MINOR SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS PERHAPS THE HIGHEST AREAS OF THE CATSKILLS/SOUTHERN
GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. VALLEY AREAS WILL STAY MAINLY RAIN WITH VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DECREASE FROM ALBANY AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTH IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT.

CLOUDS AND A RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A
LITTLE FRIDAY ...BUT THEY WILL STILL FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MID 30S MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION LATER SATURDAY TAKING ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS WITH IT. IT WILL TURN BREEZY WITH WIND TURNING TO THE  WEST
OR NORTHWEST AND GUSTING UP TO 25-30 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

THE AIR WILL SLIGHTLY COOL IN THE MID LEVELS...BUT SINCE WE WILL
HAVE BETTER MIXING ON SATURDAY (COMPARED TO FRIDAY) SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRIDAY...MAYBE A
COUPLE POINTS HIGHER IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY WHERE THEY SHOULD REACH AROUND 60. ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...THEY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE UPPER 40S. MOST
OTHER AREAS WILL BE IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL
REGION.

EVERYONE CHILLS DOWN AGAIN SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
DESCENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION TO BRING A CLEARING
SKY. WITH A LIGHT NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
TO AROUND FREEZING IN VALLEY LOCATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTH OF ALBANY.
IT WILL TURN CHILLY

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF WET WEATHER ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS OUR
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE WEDNESDAY.

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SUNDAY
EXPECT A DRY DAY AS A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA
AND THEN SLIDES EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE IN DAY. EXPECT
HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH OUR REGION. VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH PERIODS. EXPECT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS ON
MONDAY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SEVERAL SURFACE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE FA ON TUESDAY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE OTHER PERIODS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES PROVIDING US
WITH DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 70. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S TO MID 60S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
12Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO NEW
ENGLAND TODAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SOME OCCASIONAL
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS. THE CIRRUS WILL BECOME THICKER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND 10
KT BY LATE THIS MORNING...AND THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT NIGHT-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY:
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...
     HIGH HAINES INDEX OF 5 THIS AFTERNOON...

MOST OF THE SNOW FROM TUESDAY NIGHT IS GONE. HOWEVER...OLD SNOW
STILL COVERED PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE EACH DAY...EXCEPT SATURDAY WHICH WILL FEATURE A BIT MORE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS.

THE AIR MASS WILL MODERATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. THE WIND
WILL BE LIGHT TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON...5 TO 15 MPH.
RH VALUES LOOK VERY LOW IN MOST PLACES.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BECOME CALM BUT WE WILL NOT NECESSARILY HAVE
FULL RECOVERY AS RH VALUES TOP OUT AROUND 75 PERCENT.

FRIDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 10 TO 15 MPH. RH
VALUES LOOK LOW...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THIS AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN
OR SNOW AROUND...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHT...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE AS IT BECOME BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND CAPITAL REGION WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 25 MPH AT TIMES. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE.

DRY WEATHER...MOSTLY SUNNY AND SLIGHTLY MILDER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AT HINCKLEY AND KAST BRIDGE ON THE
WEST CANADA CREEK WITH BOTH JUST A HAIR ABOUT FLOOD STAGE AT THIS
TIME. ALSO...AT FORT EDWARD ON THE HUDSON RIVER WHICH IS ALSO
CURRENTLY JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. BASED ON FORECASTS THESE WARNINGS
WILL BE DROPPED TODAY. RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER IS IN MAJOR
FLOOD AND HAS CRESTED. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS ONLY
EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW MODERATE FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING
WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IS FALLS BELOW FOOD STAGE. WILL UPDATE
STATEMENTS WITH UPDATED FORECASTS LATER THIS MORNING.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS CONTINUE
TO RECEDE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD
FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
LIGHT. AT THIS POINT...WE ANTICIPATED NO ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS
WITH THIS PRECIPITATION.

DRY WEATHER WILL RESUME LATE SATURDAY INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 171423
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1023 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS MORNING AND WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY
FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1023 AM EDT THURSDAY...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
VERY LITTLE CHANGE GOING INTO THE MID-DAY HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES...AND AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
TO WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING VALUES. MEAN 925-850MB TEMPS RISE TO
NEAR 0C THIS AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING HIGHS CLOSE TO 50 IN THE
VALLEYS...LOW/MID 40S MID-SLOPE AND AROUND 30 AT THE SUMMITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 440 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. STILL LOOKING AT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ALONG
WITH DRY WEATHER FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM EDT THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO DRASTICALLY.
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ON SUNDAY AS WELL BUT
SLOWLY SLIDING EASTWARD. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION
MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...THOUGH LOW CENTER AND BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL PASS
NORTH OF THE REGION. WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN BE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. GENERALLY A COUPLE
OF INSIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS WITH AN OTHERWISE
QUIET EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TREND SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST 8-13 KTS THURSDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXCEPTION WILL BE MSS WHERE WINDS WILL BE
EAST/NORTHEAST.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR
SHOWERS WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A SHORT LIST OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY...
APRIL 17. PLEASE NOTE THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR KMPV AND KMSS
(1948) ARE CONSIDERABLY SHORTER THAN AT KBTV (1884).

SITERECORD DATE

KBTV 13F 1971
KMPV 17F 2003
KMSS 20F 2003

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES
CLIMATE...JMG








000
FXUS61 KBTV 171137
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
737 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS MORNING AND WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY
FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 728 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER MORNING OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH READINGS IN THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S. LOOKS LIKE MONTPELIER SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW THIS
MORNING WITH AN UNOFFICIAL LOW OF 14 SO FAR...THE OLD RECORD WAS
17 SET BACK IN 2003. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING TREND TO TAKE PLACE AND WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND FROM YESTERDAY AND
GET CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 440 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. STILL LOOKING AT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ALONG
WITH DRY WEATHER FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM EDT THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO DRASTICALLY.
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ON SUNDAY AS WELL BUT
SLOWLY SLIDING EASTWARD. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION
MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...THOUGH LOW CENTER AND BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL PASS
NORTH OF THE REGION. WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN BE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. GENERALLY A COUPLE
OF INSIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS WITH AN OTHERWISE
QUIET EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TREND SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST 8-13 KTS THURSDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXCEPTION WILL BE MSS WHERE WINDS WILL BE
EAST/NORTHEAST.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR
SHOWERS WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A SHORT LIST OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY...
APRIL 17. PLEASE NOTE THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR KMPV AND KMSS
(1948) ARE CONSIDERABLY SHORTER THAN AT KBTV (1884).

SITERECORD DATE

KBTV 13F 1971
KMPV 17F 2003
KMSS 20F 2003

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES
CLIMATE...JMG






000
FXUS61 KBTV 171128
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
728 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS MORNING AND WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY
FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 728 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER MORNING OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH READINGS IN THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S. LOOKS LIKE MONTPELIER SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW THIS
MORNING WITH AN UNOFFICIAL LOW OF 14 SO FAR...THE OLD RECORD WAS 17
SET BACK IN 2003. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING TREND TO TAKE PLACE AND WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND FROM YESTERDAY AND
GET CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 440 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. STILL LOOKING AT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ALONG
WITH DRY WEATHER FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM EDT THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO DRASTICALLY.
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ON SUNDAY AS WELL BUT
SLOWLY SLIDING EASTWARD. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION
MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...THOUGH LOW CENTER AND BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL PASS
NORTH OF THE REGION. WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN BE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. GENERALLY A COUPLE
OF INSIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS WITH AN OTHERWISE
QUIET EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT...EXCEPT RUT WHERE
VALLEY INDUCED SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 5-10 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS THEN
TREND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 8-13 KTS THURSDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXCEPTION WILL BE MSS WHERE WINDS WILL
BE EAST/NORTHEAST.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR
SHOWERS WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A SHORT LIST OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY...
APRIL 17. PLEASE NOTE THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR KMPV AND KMSS
(1948) ARE CONSIDERABLY SHORTER THAN AT KBTV (1884).

SITERECORD DATE

KBTV 13F 1971
KMPV 17F 2003
KMSS 20F 2003

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...RJS/NEILES
CLIMATE...JMG








000
FXUS61 KALY 170952
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
550 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR OUR REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT  INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS OF RAIN OR A
WINTRY MIX...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM CANADA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...A MAINLY CLEAR BUT COLD MORNING. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS TO THE NORTH MAINLY ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS.

LOWS WILL BOTTOM JUST ABOVE RECORD LEVELS IN MOST CASES.

JUST VERY MINOR TWEAKING WITH THIS UPDATE.

SUNSHINE WILL BE MIXED WITH HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. THE AIR MASS WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE AS SUNSHINE GETS TO WORK ON THE CHILL...AND HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES TO OUR NORTHEAST. THIS WILL CREATE MORE OF A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...SO NO BIG WARMUP JUST A GRADUAL MODERATION.

LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY. THAT WILL TRANSLATE TO A HIGH RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST OF ALBANY TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY...LOCALLY IN THE
LOWER 50S WITHIN THE CAPITAL REGION.  THESE VALUES WILL STILL FALL A
LITTLE SHORT OF NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID APRIL.

A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...THE WIND WILL DIMINISH ONCE
MORE...AND WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO
THE 20S REGION WIDE...CLOSER TO 20 ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...CLOSER
TO 30 ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME MORE SUNSHINE
WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MORE. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MID TO UPPER 50S IN
VALLEY LOCATION.

THEN FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MOISTURE
STARVED...MORE SO THAN BEFORE. IT LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT EVEN THESE LOOK
FAIRLY LIGHT. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND
WET SNOW WITH MINOR SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS PERHAPS THE HIGHEST AREAS OF THE CATSKILLS/SOUTHERN
GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. VALLEY AREAS WILL STAY MAINLY RAIN WITH VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DECREASE FROM ALBANY AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTH IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT.

CLOUDS AND A RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A
LITTLE FRIDAY ...BUT THEY WILL STILL FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MID 30S MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION LATER SATURDAY TAKING ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS WITH IT. IT WILL TURN BREEZY WITH WIND TURNING TO THE  WEST
OR NORTHWEST AND GUSTING UP TO 25-30 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

THE AIR WILL SLIGHTLY COOL IN THE MID LEVELS...BUT SINCE WE WILL
HAVE BETTER MIXING ON SATURDAY (COMPARED TO FRIDAY) SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRIDAY...MAYBE A
COUPLE POINTS HIGHER IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY WHERE THEY SHOULD REACH AROUND 60. ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...THEY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE UPPER 40S. MOST
OTHER AREAS WILL BE IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL
REGION.

EVERYONE CHILLS DOWN AGAIN SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
DESCENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION TO BRING A CLEARING
SKY. WITH A LIGHT NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
TO AROUND FREEZING IN VALLEY LOCATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTH OF ALBANY.
IT WILL TURN CHILLY

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF WET WEATHER ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS OUR
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE WEDNESDAY.

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SUNDAY
EXPECT A DRY DAY AS A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA
AND THEN SLIDES EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE IN DAY. EXPECT
HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH OUR REGION. VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH PERIODS. EXPECT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS ON
MONDAY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SEVERAL SURFACE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE FA ON TUESDAY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE OTHER PERIODS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES PROVIDING US
WITH DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 70. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S TO MID 60S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
12Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO NEW
ENGLAND TODAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SOME OCCASIONAL
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS. THE CIRRUS WILL BECOME THICKER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND 10
KT BY LATE THIS MORNING...AND THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     LOW RH VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...
     HIGH HAINES INDEX OF 5 THIS AFTERNOON...

MOST OF THE SNOW FROM TUESDAY NIGHT IS GONE. HOWEVER...OLD SNOW
STILL COVERED PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE EACH DAY...EXCEPT SATURDAY WHICH WILL FEATURE A BIT MORE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS.

THE AIR MASS WILL MODERATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. THE WIND
WILL BE LIGHT TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON...5 TO 15 MPH.
RH VALUES LOOK VERY LOW IN MOST PLACES.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BECOME CALM BUT WE WILL NOT NECESSARILY HAVE
FULL RECOVERY AS RH VALUES TOP OUT AROUND 75 PERCENT.

FRIDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 10 TO 15 MPH. RH
VALUES LOOK LOW...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THIS AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN
OR SNOW AROUND...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHT...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE AS IT BECOME BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND CAPITAL REGION WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 25 MPH AT TIMES. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE.

DRY WEATHER...MOSTLY SUNNY AND SLIGHTLY MILDER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THESE AREAS
WITH MAINLY MINOR OR MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRING. HOWEVER THERE IS
MAJOR FLOODING OCCURRING ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK.
LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS CONTINUE
TO RECEDE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD
FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT
AT THIS TIME WHICH WILL BE UPDATED WITH FUTURE FORECASTS. AT THIS
POINT...WE ANTICIPATED NO ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS WITH THIS
PRECIPITATION.

DRY WEATHER WILL RESUME LATE SATURDAY INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KALY 170847
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR OUR REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT  INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS OF RAIN OR A
WINTRY MIX...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM CANADA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...A FRIGID NIGHT FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. IT IS CALM
AND MAINLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES
WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS NORTH. LOCALLY AT ALBANY
WE WERE SITTING AT 28...WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE YET TO ECLIPSE THE
OLD LOW RECORD OF 21 SET BACK IN 1971.

SUNSHINE WILL BE MIXED WITH HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. THE AIR MASS WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE AS SUNSHINE GETS TO WORK ON THE CHILL...AND HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES TO OUR NORTHEAST. THIS WILL CREATE MORE OF A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...SO NO BIG WARMUP JUST A GRADUAL MODERATION.

LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY. THAT WILL TRANSLATE TO A HIGH RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST OF ALBANY TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY...LOCALLY IN THE
LOWER 50S WITHIN THE CAPITAL REGION.  THESE VALUES WILL STILL FALL A
LITTLE SHORT OF NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID APRIL.

A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...THE WIND WILL DIMINISH ONCE
MORE...AND WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO
THE 20S REGION WIDE...CLOSER TO 20 ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...CLOSER
TO 30 ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME MORE SUNSHINE
WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MORE. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MID TO UPPER 50S IN
VALLEY LOCATION.

THEN FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MOISTURE
STARVED...MORE SO THAN BEFORE. IT LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT EVEN THESE LOOK
FAIRLY LIGHT. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND
WET SNOW WITH MINOR SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS PERHAPS THE HIGHEST AREAS OF THE CATSKILLS/SOUTHERN
GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. VALLEY AREAS WILL STAY MAINLY RAIN WITH VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DECREASE FROM ALBANY AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTH IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT.

CLOUDS AND A RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A
LITTLE FRIDAY ...BUT THEY WILL STILL FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MID 30S MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION LATER SATURDAY TAKING ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS WITH IT. IT WILL TURN BREEZY WITH WIND TURNING TO THE  WEST
OR NORTHWEST AND GUSTING UP TO 25-30 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

THE AIR WILL SLIGHTLY COOL IN THE MID LEVELS...BUT SINCE WE WILL
HAVE BETTER MIXING ON SATURDAY (COMPARED TO FRIDAY) SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRIDAY...MAYBE A
COUPLE POINTS HIGHER IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY WHERE THEY SHOULD REACH AROUND 60. ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...THEY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE UPPER 40S. MOST
OTHER AREAS WILL BE IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL
REGION.

EVERYONE CHILLS DOWN AGAIN SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
DESCENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION TO BRING A CLEARING
SKY. WITH A LIGHT NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
TO AROUND FREEZING IN VALLEY LOCATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTH OF ALBANY.
IT WILL TURN CHILLY


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF WET WEATHER ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS OUR
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE WEDNESDAY.

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SUNDAY
EXPECT A DRY DAY AS A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA
AND THEN SLIDES EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE IN DAY. EXPECT
HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH OUR REGION. VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH PERIODS. EXPECT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS ON
MONDAY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SEVERAL SURFACE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE FA ON TUESDAY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE OTHER PERIODS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES PROVIDING US
WITH DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 70. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S TO MID 60S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
06Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION DURING THE
REMAINDER THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SOME OCCASIONAL HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS. THE CIRRUS WILL BECOME THICKER THURSDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 KT BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN AND VARIABLE AGAIN
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...LOW RH VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...
...HIGH HAINES INDEX OF 5 THIS AFTERNOON...

MOST OF THE SNOW FROM TUESDAY NIGHT IS GONE. HOWEVER...OLD SNOW
STILL COVERED PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE EACH DAY...EXCEPT SATURDAY WHICH WILL FEATURE A BIT MORE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS.

THE AIR MASS WILL MODERATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. THE WIND
WILL BE LIGHT TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON...5 TO 15 MPH.
RH VALUES LOOK VERY LOW IN MOST PLACES.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BECOME CALM BUT WE WILL NOT NECESSARILY HAVE
FULL RECOVERY AS RH VALUES TOP OUT AROUND 75 PERCENT.

FRIDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 10 TO 15 MPH. RH
VALUES LOOK LOW...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THIS AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN
OR SNOW AROUND...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHT...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE AS IT BECOME BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND CAPITAL REGION WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 25 MPH AT TIMES. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE.

DRY WEATHER...MOSTLY SUNNY AND SLIGHTLY MILDER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR
SUNDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THESE AREAS
WITH MAINLY MINOR OR MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRING. HOWEVER THERE IS
MAJOR FLOODING OCCURRING ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK.
LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS CONTINUE
TO RECEDE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD
FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT
AT THIS TIME WHICH WILL BE UPDATED WITH FUTURE FORECASTS. AT THIS
POINT...WE ANTICIPATED NO ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS WITH THIS
PRECIPITATION.

DRY WEATHER WILL RESUME LATE SATURDAY INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KBTV 170840
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
440 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS MORNING AND WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY
FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 440 AM EDT THURSDAY...ANOTHER MORNING OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH READINGS IN THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S. LOOKS LIKE MONTPELIER SET ANOTHER RECORD WITH A CURRENT
TEMPERATURE OF 16...THE OLD RECORD WAS 17 SET BACK IN 2003.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND TO TAKE
PLACE AND WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND FROM YESTERDAY AND GET CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 440 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. STILL LOOKING AT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ALONG
WITH DRY WEATHER FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM EDT THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO DRASTICALLY.
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ON SUNDAY AS WELL BUT
SLOWLY SLIDING EASTWARD. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION
MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...THOUGH LOW CENTER AND BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL PASS
NORTH OF THE REGION. WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN BE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. GENERALLY A COUPLE
OF INSIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS WITH AN OTHERWISE
QUIET EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT...EXCEPT RUT WHERE
VALLEY INDUCED SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 5-10 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS THEN
TREND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 8-13 KTS THURSDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXCEPTION WILL BE MSS WHERE WINDS WILL
BE EAST/NORTHEAST.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR
SHOWERS WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A SHORT LIST OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY...
APRIL 17. PLEASE NOTE THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR KMPV AND KMSS
(1948) ARE CONSIDERABLY SHORTER THAN AT KBTV (1884).

SITERECORD DATE

KBTV 13F 1971
KMPV 17F 2003
KMSS 20F 2003

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...RJS/NEILES
CLIMATE...JMG







000
FXUS61 KBTV 170733
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
333 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA TOMORROW...A STRONG MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
WITH READINGS RETURNING TO SEASONAL APRIL NORMS BY FRIDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
OCCURS BY SATURDAY AS A WEAK FRONT BRINGS A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 128 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND
ONLY TWEAK WAS TO MATCH TEMPERATURES TO THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.
DRY WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...QUIET/DRY WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING
PRONOUNCED SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
A CONSIDERABLE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. BLENDED MODEL 925 MB
THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS ON THURSDAY REBOUNDING INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND AROUND 50 IN THE LARGER
VALLEYS...THEN SOLID 50S IN MOST SPOTS BY FRIDAY. A WELCOME
CHANGE FOR MOST.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DROPPING WEAK GREAT
LAKES SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE SLV SPREADING CLOUDS AND AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS/HIGHER ELEV SNOW SHOWERS TO OUR
AREA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...ESP IN
COMPARISON TO OUR MOST RECENT EVENT BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT
I`VE OFFERED SOLID 40-60 POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA..ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING LOW TEMPS SHOULD
HOLD STEADY IN THE 30S AND PERHAPS RISE A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM EDT THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO DRASTICALLY.
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ON SUNDAY AS WELL BUT
SLOWLY SLIDING EASTWARD. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION
MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...THOUGH LOW CENTER AND BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL PASS
NORTH OF THE REGION. WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN BE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. GENERALLY A COUPLE
OF INSIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS WITH AN OTHERWISE
QUIET EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT...EXCEPT RUT WHERE
VALLEY INDUCED SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 5-10 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS THEN
TREND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 8-13 KTS THURSDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXCEPTION WILL BE MSS WHERE WINDS WILL
BE EAST/NORTHEAST.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR
SHOWERS WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A SHORT LIST OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY...
APRIL 17. PLEASE NOTE THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR KMPV AND KMSS
(1948) ARE CONSIDERABLY SHORTER THAN AT KBTV (1884).

SITERECORD DATE

KBTV 13F 1971
KMPV 17F 2003
KMSS 20F 2003

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...RJS/NEILES
CLIMATE...JMG








000
FXUS61 KBTV 170539
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
139 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA TOMORROW...A STRONG MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
WITH READINGS RETURNING TO SEASONAL APRIL NORMS BY FRIDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
OCCURS BY SATURDAY AS A WEAK FRONT BRINGS A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 128 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND
ONLY TWEAK WAS TO MATCH TEMPERATURES TO THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.
DRY WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...QUIET/DRY WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING
PRONOUNCED SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
A CONSIDERABLE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. BLENDED MODEL 925 MB
THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS ON THURSDAY REBOUNDING INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND AROUND 50 IN THE LARGER
VALLEYS...THEN SOLID 50S IN MOST SPOTS BY FRIDAY. A WELCOME
CHANGE FOR MOST.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DROPPING WEAK GREAT
LAKES SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE SLV SPREADING CLOUDS AND AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS/HIGHER ELEV SNOW SHOWERS TO OUR
AREA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...ESP IN
COMPARISON TO OUR MOST RECENT EVENT BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT
I`VE OFFERED SOLID 40-60 POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA..ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING LOW TEMPS SHOULD
HOLD STEADY IN THE 30S AND PERHAPS RISE A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 314 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL WEEKEND AND
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IS IN STORE WITH A COUPLE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY
BRINGING WITH IT THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...AND HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY RANGE FROM 45-55F.
SOME NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM MAY LEAD TO LINGERING
MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD TO DRYING CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK OFF INTO THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

WE`LL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON SUNDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TO START THE DAY...AND INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY TO SEASONAL NORMS...WELL INTO
THE 50S FOR MOST. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WHILE THE MAIN FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...THIS WILL STILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THE ADDED CLOUDS/MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S. HIGHS MONDAY REACH 57-62F.

HAVE A SLIGHT BREAK MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH THE
COLD FRONT AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ON THE DOORSTEP
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS TOO LOOKS TO REMAIN
WEAK AND PROGRESSIVE WITH ONLY CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHS TUESDAY LOOK SIMILAR TO MONDAY...IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S. TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY POST FRONTAL ON WEDNESDAY UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT...EXCEPT RUT WHERE
VALLEY INDUCED SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 5-10 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS THEN
TREND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 8-13 KTS THURSDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXCEPTION WILL BE MSS WHERE WINDS WILL
BE EAST/NORTHEAST.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR
SHOWERS WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A SHORT LIST OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY...
APRIL 17. PLEASE NOTE THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR KMPV AND KMSS
(1948) ARE CONSIDERABLY SHORTER THAN AT KBTV (1884).

SITERECORD DATE

KBTV 13F 1971
KMPV 17F 2003
KMSS 20F 2003

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...NEILES
CLIMATE...JMG






000
FXUS61 KBTV 170528
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
128 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
TOMORROW...A STRONG MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR WITH
READINGS RETURNING TO SEASONAL APRIL NORMS BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OCCURS BY SATURDAY
AS A WEAK FRONT BRINGS A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 128 AM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND
ONLY TWEAK WAS TO MATCH TEMPERATURES TO THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.
DRY WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...QUIET/DRY WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING
PRONOUNCED SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH A
CONSIDERABLE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. BLENDED MODEL 925 MB
THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS ON THURSDAY REBOUNDING INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND AROUND 50 IN THE LARGER
VALLEYS...THEN SOLID 50S IN MOST SPOTS BY FRIDAY. A WELCOME CHANGE
FOR MOST.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DROPPING WEAK GREAT
LAKES SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE SLV SPREADING CLOUDS AND AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS/HIGHER ELEV SNOW SHOWERS TO OUR
AREA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...ESP IN COMPARISON
TO OUR MOST RECENT EVENT BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT I`VE OFFERED
SOLID 40-60 POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA..ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING LOW TEMPS SHOULD HOLD STEADY IN THE
30S AND PERHAPS RISE A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 314 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL WEEKEND AND
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IS IN STORE WITH A COUPLE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY
BRINGING WITH IT THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...AND HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY RANGE FROM 45-55F.
SOME NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM MAY LEAD TO LINGERING
MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD TO DRYING CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK OFF INTO THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

WE`LL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON SUNDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
START THE DAY...AND INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY.
HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY TO SEASONAL NORMS...WELL INTO THE 50S
FOR MOST. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. WHILE THE MAIN FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...THIS WILL STILL BRING
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THE ADDED
CLOUDS/MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S. HIGHS MONDAY
REACH 57-62F.

HAVE A SLIGHT BREAK MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH THE COLD
FRONT AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ON THE DOORSTEP FOR TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS TOO LOOKS TO REMAIN WEAK AND
PROGRESSIVE WITH ONLY CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS
TUESDAY LOOK SIMILAR TO MONDAY...IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY POST FRONTAL ON WEDNESDAY UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT...EXCEPT RUT WHERE
VALLEY INDUCED SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 5-10 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS THEN
TREND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 8-13 KTS THURSDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXCEPTION WILL BE MSS WHERE WINDS WILL
BE EAST/NORTHEAST.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS
WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS ADDITIONAL
FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A SHORT LIST OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY...
APRIL 17. PLEASE NOTE THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR KMPV AND KMSS
(1948) ARE CONSIDERABLY SHORTER THAN AT KBTV (1884).

SITERECORD DATE

KBTV 13F 1971
KMPV 17F 2003
KMSS 20F 2003

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...JMG/RJS
CLIMATE...JMG







000
FXUS61 KALY 170517
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1246 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL
MODERATE...BUT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FURTHER BY FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
BEGINNING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...A MAINLY CLEAR COLD NIGHT IN PROGRESS. SATELLITE
PICTURES DO INDICATE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON THE OVERALL WEATHER.

SO WITH THIS UPDATE...AGAIN ONLY EXTREMELY MINOR TWEAKING OF THE
GRIDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE MID
TEENS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 20S IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
REGION. WE ARE FORECASTING TO TIE A RECORD LOW AT ALBANY...WHICH IS
21 DEGREE SET BACK IN 1971.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. LATEST 12Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CENTER
OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVING NORTHEAST INTO MAINE AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN...A SOUTHEASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION. T850 AND T925 PROFILES SHOW COLD AIR FUNNELING
DOWN EQUATORWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THIS WILL FUNNEL IN COOLER CONDITIONS FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
T850 RANGING BETWEEN -2C AND -5C AND T925 RANGING BETWEEN -1C AND
1C. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO HAVE SOME GRADIENT DEVELOPING
BASED OFF OF TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE 40S FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE DOWN SLOPPING WINDS
WILL CAUSE LOCAL VALLEY AREAS TO REACH THE LOWER AND MID 50S UNDER
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO
UPPER 20S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS

AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY...LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
SHOWS A PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
THAT IS VERY LIMITED IN MOISTURE SOURCES. THIS WILL LIMIT QPF TO
AREAS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS.
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SOUTHERLY STREAM JET STREAK THAT WILL
PHASE INTO THE NORTHERLY FLOW THAT MIGHT ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS FOR GREATER QPF AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO INITIAL
LIMITED MOISTURE SOURCES AND THE JET STREAK BEING DISPLACED FURTHER
EAST OF THE REGION WHEN DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE..CHANCES OF A HIGH
QPF SITUATION ARE LIMITED BUT WILL BE MONITORED. DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TRENDS IN THE EVENING HOURS WILL SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...LOWEST POPS WILL EXIST SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FARTHEST REMOVED FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LOCATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S IN HIGH TERRAIN TO UPPER 50S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ECMWF IS NOW TRENDING WARMER...AND THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BEGIN ON THE WET SIDE...WITH SHOWERS FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND...
BUT THINGS WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM JAMES BAY
AND ONTARIO.  A RELATIVELY WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...RENDERING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY.  CHC POPS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY...
THOUGH...GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THIS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACTUALLY ENDS UP AS IT TAPS ON INCREASING GULF MOISTURE.
EVENTUALLY...A LARGE RIDGE OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE POURS DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY FINALLY
BE DRY AGAIN.

DESPITE IT BEING AN ARCTIC HIGH MOVING IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL
BE A WELL MODIFIED AIR MASS...AND TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ON TUESDAY WILL BE ONLY A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
SUNDAY...LIKE WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND
60S...AND MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST A CARBON COPY OF TUESDAY/S WARMTH.
LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
RANGE...AND THESE WILL REBOUND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND ANOTHER 5 DEGREES FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER UNDER PARTIAL CLEARING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
06Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION DURING THE
REMAINDER THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SOME OCCASIONAL HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS. THE CIRRUS WILL BECOME THICKER THURSDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 KT BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN AND VARIABLE AGAIN
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER IN THE DAY
PROVIDED A HALF AN INCH TO ONE AND AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY SNOWFALL RANGING FROM AROUND
ONE INCH TO AROUND FOUR INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED STILL REMAIN.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAVE LEAD THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THESE AREAS WITH MAINLY
MINOR OR MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRING. HOWEVER THERE IS MAJOR
FLOODING OCCURRING ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK. LARGER
MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS CONTINUE
TO RECEDE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS
TIME WHICH WILL BE UPDATED WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/LFM
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/LFM












000
FXUS61 KALY 170516
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1246 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL
MODERATE...BUT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FURTHER BY FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
BEGINNING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...A MAINLY CLEAR COLD NIGHT IN PROGRESS. SATELLITE
PICTURES DO INDICATE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON THE OVERALL WEATHER.

SO WITH THIS UPDATE...AGAIN ONLY EXTREMELY MINOR TWEAKING OF THE
GRIDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOWS
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 20S IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION.
WE ARE FORECASTING TO TIE A RECORD LOW AT ALBANY...WHICH IS 21
DEGREE SET BACK IN 1971.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. LATEST 12Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CENTER
OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVING NORTHEAST INTO MAINE AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN...A SOUTHEASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION. T850 AND T925 PROFILES SHOW COLD AIR FUNNELING
DOWN EQUATORWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THIS WILL FUNNEL IN COOLER CONDITIONS FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
T850 RANGING BETWEEN -2C AND -5C AND T925 RANGING BETWEEN -1C AND
1C. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO HAVE SOME GRADIENT DEVELOPING
BASED OFF OF TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE 40S FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE DOWN SLOPPING WINDS
WILL CAUSE LOCAL VALLEY AREAS TO REACH THE LOWER AND MID 50S UNDER
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO
UPPER 20S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS

AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY...LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
SHOWS A PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
THAT IS VERY LIMITED IN MOISTURE SOURCES. THIS WILL LIMIT QPF TO
AREAS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS.
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SOUTHERLY STREAM JET STREAK THAT WILL
PHASE INTO THE NORTHERLY FLOW THAT MIGHT ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS FOR GREATER QPF AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO INITIAL
LIMITED MOISTURE SOURCES AND THE JET STREAK BEING DISPLACED FURTHER
EAST OF THE REGION WHEN DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE..CHANCES OF A HIGH
QPF SITUATION ARE LIMITED BUT WILL BE MONITORED. DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TRENDS IN THE EVENING HOURS WILL SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...LOWEST POPS WILL EXIST SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FARTHEST REMOVED FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LOCATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S IN HIGH TERRAIN TO UPPER 50S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ECMWF IS NOW TRENDING WARMER...AND THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BEGIN ON THE WET SIDE...WITH SHOWERS FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND...
BUT THINGS WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM JAMES BAY
AND ONTARIO.  A RELATIVELY WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...RENDERING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY.  CHC POPS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY...
THOUGH...GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THIS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACTUALLY ENDS UP AS IT TAPS ON INCREASING GULF MOISTURE.
EVENTUALLY...A LARGE RIDGE OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE POURS DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY FINALLY
BE DRY AGAIN.

DESPITE IT BEING AN ARCTIC HIGH MOVING IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL
BE A WELL MODIFIED AIR MASS...AND TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ON TUESDAY WILL BE ONLY A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
SUNDAY...LIKE WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND
60S...AND MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST A CARBON COPY OF TUESDAY/S WARMTH.
LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
RANGE...AND THESE WILL REBOUND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND ANOTHER 5 DEGREES FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER UNDER PARTIAL CLEARING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
00Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR EXCEPT
FOR SOME OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 KT BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER IN THE DAY
PROVIDED A HALF AN INCH TO ONE AND AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY SNOWFALL RANGING FROM AROUND
ONE INCH TO AROUND FOUR INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED STILL REMAIN.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAVE LEAD THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THESE AREAS WITH MAINLY
MINOR OR MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRING. HOWEVER THERE IS MAJOR
FLOODING OCCURRING ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK. LARGER
MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS CONTINUE
TO RECEDE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS
TIME WHICH WILL BE UPDATED WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/LFM
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/LFM










000
FXUS61 KALY 170515
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
115 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL
MODERATE...BUT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FURTHER BY FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
BEGINNING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EDT...VERY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION. LARGE
1040MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THE SKY WILL BE
INITIALLY CLEAR...WIND LIGHT OR CALM...WITH PERHAPS A FEW CIRRUS
STREAMING IN LATER TONIGHT. ERGO...WE WILL HAVE NEAR IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY EXTREMELY MINOR RE-TOOLING OF THE HOURLY
GRIDS. OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK RIGHT IN THE BALLPARK.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOWS WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 20S IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION. WE
ARE FORECASTING TO TIE A RECORD LOW AT ALBANY...WHICH IS 21 DEGREE
SET BACK IN 1971.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. LATEST 12Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CENTER
OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVING NORTHEAST INTO MAINE AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN...A SOUTHEASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION. T850 AND T925 PROFILES SHOW COLD AIR FUNNELING
DOWN EQUATORWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THIS WILL FUNNEL IN COOLER CONDITIONS FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
T850 RANGING BETWEEN -2C AND -5C AND T925 RANGING BETWEEN -1C AND
1C. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO HAVE SOME GRADIENT DEVELOPING
BASED OFF OF TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE 40S FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE DOWN SLOPPING WINDS
WILL CAUSE LOCAL VALLEY AREAS TO REACH THE LOWER AND MID 50S UNDER
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO
UPPER 20S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS

AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY...LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
SHOWS A PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
THAT IS VERY LIMITED IN MOISTURE SOURCES. THIS WILL LIMIT QPF TO
AREAS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS.
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SOUTHERLY STREAM JET STREAK THAT WILL
PHASE INTO THE NORTHERLY FLOW THAT MIGHT ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS FOR GREATER QPF AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO INITIAL
LIMITED MOISTURE SOURCES AND THE JET STREAK BEING DISPLACED FURTHER
EAST OF THE REGION WHEN DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE..CHANCES OF A HIGH
QPF SITUATION ARE LIMITED BUT WILL BE MONITORED. DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TRENDS IN THE EVENING HOURS WILL SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...LOWEST POPS WILL EXIST SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FARTHEST REMOVED FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LOCATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S IN HIGH TERRAIN TO UPPER 50S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ECMWF IS NOW TRENDING WARMER...AND THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BEGIN ON THE WET SIDE...WITH SHOWERS FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND...
BUT THINGS WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM JAMES BAY
AND ONTARIO.  A RELATIVELY WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...RENDERING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY.  CHC POPS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY...
THOUGH...GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THIS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACTUALLY ENDS UP AS IT TAPS ON INCREASING GULF MOISTURE.
EVENTUALLY...A LARGE RIDGE OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE POURS DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY FINALLY
BE DRY AGAIN.

DESPITE IT BEING AN ARCTIC HIGH MOVING IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL
BE A WELL MODIFIED AIR MASS...AND TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ON TUESDAY WILL BE ONLY A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
SUNDAY...LIKE WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND
60S...AND MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST A CARBON COPY OF TUESDAY/S WARMTH.
LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
RANGE...AND THESE WILL REBOUND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND ANOTHER 5 DEGREES FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER UNDER PARTIAL CLEARING.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
06Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION DURING THE
REMAINDER THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SOME OCCASIONAL HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS. THE CIRRUS WILL BECOME THICKER THURSDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 KT BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN AND VARIABLE AGAIN
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER IN THE DAY
PROVIDED A HALF AN INCH TO ONE AND AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY SNOWFALL RANGING FROM AROUND
ONE INCH TO AROUND FOUR INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED STILL REMAIN.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAVE LEAD THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THESE AREAS WITH MAINLY
MINOR OR MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRING. HOWEVER THERE IS MAJOR
FLOODING OCCURRING ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK. LARGER
MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS CONTINUE
TO RECEDE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS
TIME WHICH WILL BE UPDATED WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...11/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/LFM
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/LFM








000
FXUS61 KBTV 170248
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1048 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
TOMORROW...A STRONG MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR WITH
READINGS RETURNING TO SEASONAL APRIL NORMS BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OCCURS BY SATURDAY
AS A WEAK FRONT BRINGS A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1037 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD
SHAPE. ONLY CHANGES MADE WERE TO INPUT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA
INTO GRIDS. 1038 MB HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT SETTLES
ATOP THE REGION OVERNIGHT. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
DUE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS. STILL LOOKING
AT LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

A SHORT LIST OF LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING (4/17) ARE LISTED
BELOW. WHILE RIVERS AND FLOODING CONCERNS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
ACROSS OUR AREA...A FEW WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL
MAINSTEM RIVERS...AND PORTIONS OF NRN NY/SLV WHICH WERE
PARTICULARLY HARD HIT. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST NWS STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS FOR RIVERS IN YOUR SPECIFIC
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...QUIET/DRY WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING
PRONOUNCED SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH A
CONSIDERABLE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. BLENDED MODEL 925 MB
THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS ON THURSDAY REBOUNDING INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND AROUND 50 IN THE LARGER
VALLEYS...THEN SOLID 50S IN MOST SPOTS BY FRIDAY. A WELCOME CHANGE
FOR MOST.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DROPPING WEAK GREAT
LAKES SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE SLV SPREADING CLOUDS AND AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS/HIGHER ELEV SNOW SHOWERS TO OUR
AREA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...ESP IN COMPARISON
TO OUR MOST RECENT EVENT BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT I`VE OFFERED
SOLID 40-60 POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA..ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING LOW TEMPS SHOULD HOLD STEADY IN THE
30S AND PERHAPS RISE A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 314 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL WEEKEND AND
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IS IN STORE WITH A COUPLE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY
BRINGING WITH IT THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...AND HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY RANGE FROM 45-55F.
SOME NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM MAY LEAD TO LINGERING
MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD TO DRYING CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK OFF INTO THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

WE`LL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON SUNDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
START THE DAY...AND INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY.
HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY TO SEASONAL NORMS...WELL INTO THE 50S
FOR MOST. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. WHILE THE MAIN FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...THIS WILL STILL BRING
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THE ADDED
CLOUDS/MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S. HIGHS MONDAY
REACH 57-62F.

HAVE A SLIGHT BREAK MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH THE COLD
FRONT AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ON THE DOORSTEP FOR TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS TOO LOOKS TO REMAIN WEAK AND
PROGRESSIVE WITH ONLY CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS
TUESDAY LOOK SIMILAR TO MONDAY...IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY POST FRONTAL ON WEDNESDAY UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT...EXCEPT RUT WHERE
VALLEY INDUCED SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 5-10 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS THEN
TREND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 8-13 KTS THURSDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXCEPTION WILL BE MSS WHERE WINDS WILL
BE EAST/NORTHEAST.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS
WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS ADDITIONAL
FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...RUNOFF FROM YESTERDAY`S
RAINFALL/SNOWMELT EVENT CONTINUES TO LESSEN WITH TIME TODAY. WITH
NO NEW FLOODING ANTICIPATED AND CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING ACROSS
THE AREA...THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HOWEVER...SEVERAL
RIVERS REMAIN IN FLOOD AND PERSONS WITH INTERESTS ALONG AREA
WATERWAYS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS AND
WARNINGS FROM THE NWS IN BURLINGTON BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO..OR ONLINE AT: WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=BTV

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A SHORT LIST OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY...APRIL 17. PLEASE NOTE THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR KMPV AND
KMSS (1948) ARE CONSIDERABLY SHORTER THAN AT KBTV (1884).

SITERECORD DATE

KBTV 13F 1971
KMPV 17F 2003
KMSS 20F 2003

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...RJS/JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...JMG/RJS
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV
CLIMATE...JMG







000
FXUS61 KALY 170145
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
945 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL
MODERATE...BUT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FURTHER BY FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
BEGINNING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EDT...VERY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION. LARGE
1040MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THE SKY WILL BE
INITIALLY CLEAR...WIND LIGHT OR CALM...WITH PERHAPS A FEW CIRRUS
STREAMING IN LATER TONIGHT. ERGO...WE WILL HAVE NEAR IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY EXTREMELY MINOR RE-TOOLING OF THE HOURLY
GRIDS. OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK RIGHT IN THE BALLPARK.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOWS WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 20S IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION. WE
ARE FORECASTING TO TIE A RECORD LOW AT ALBANY...WHICH IS 21 DEGREE
SET BACK IN 1971.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. LATEST 12Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CENTER
OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVING NORTHEAST INTO MAINE AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN...A SOUTHEASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION. T850 AND T925 PROFILES SHOW COLD AIR FUNNELING
DOWN EQUATORWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THIS WILL FUNNEL IN COOLER CONDITIONS FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
T850 RANGING BETWEEN -2C AND -5C AND T925 RANGING BETWEEN -1C AND
1C. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO HAVE SOME GRADIENT DEVELOPING
BASED OFF OF TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE 40S FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE DOWN SLOPPING WINDS
WILL CAUSE LOCAL VALLEY AREAS TO REACH THE LOWER AND MID 50S UNDER
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO
UPPER 20S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS

AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY...LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
SHOWS A PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
THAT IS VERY LIMITED IN MOISTURE SOURCES. THIS WILL LIMIT QPF TO
AREAS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS.
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SOUTHERLY STREAM JET STREAK THAT WILL
PHASE INTO THE NORTHERLY FLOW THAT MIGHT ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS FOR GREATER QPF AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO INITIAL
LIMITED MOISTURE SOURCES AND THE JET STREAK BEING DISPLACED FURTHER
EAST OF THE REGION WHEN DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE..CHANCES OF A HIGH
QPF SITUATION ARE LIMITED BUT WILL BE MONITORED. DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TRENDS IN THE EVENING HOURS WILL SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...LOWEST POPS WILL EXIST SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FARTHEST REMOVED FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LOCATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S IN HIGH TERRAIN TO UPPER 50S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ECMWF IS NOW TRENDING WARMER...AND THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BEGIN ON THE WET SIDE...WITH SHOWERS FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND...
BUT THINGS WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM JAMES BAY
AND ONTARIO.  A RELATIVELY WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...RENDERING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY.  CHC POPS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY...
THOUGH...GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THIS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACTUALLY ENDS UP AS IT TAPS ON INCREASING GULF MOISTURE.
EVENTUALLY...A LARGE RIDGE OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE POURS DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY FINALLY
BE DRY AGAIN.

DESPITE IT BEING AN ARCTIC HIGH MOVING IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL
BE A WELL MODIFIED AIR MASS...AND TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ON TUESDAY WILL BE ONLY A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
SUNDAY...LIKE WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND
60S...AND MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST A CARBON COPY OF TUESDAY/S WARMTH.
LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
RANGE...AND THESE WILL REBOUND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND ANOTHER 5 DEGREES FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER UNDER PARTIAL CLEARING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
00Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR EXCEPT
FOR SOME OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 KT BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER IN THE DAY
PROVIDED A HALF AN INCH TO ONE AND AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY SNOWFALL RANGING FROM AROUND
ONE INCH TO AROUND FOUR INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED STILL REMAIN.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAVE LEAD THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THESE AREAS WITH MAINLY
MINOR OR MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRING. HOWEVER THERE IS MAJOR
FLOODING OCCURRING ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK. LARGER
MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS CONTINUE
TO RECEDE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS
TIME WHICH WILL BE UPDATED WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/LFM
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/LFM










000
FXUS61 KBTV 162357
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
757 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
TOMORROW...A STRONG MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR WITH
READINGS RETURNING TO SEASONAL APRIL NORMS BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OCCURS BY SATURDAY
AS A WEAK FRONT BRINGS A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY
CHANGES MADE WERE TO INPUT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO GRIDS.
STILL LOOKING AT A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
QUIET AND VERY COLD NIGHT EXPECTED AS STRONG 1040 MB POLAR HIGH
SETTLES DIRECTLY ATOP THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
BE THE RULE ALONG WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AS READINGS BOTTOM
OUT IN THE TEENS FOR MOST SPOTS. A SHORT LIST OF LOWS FOR THURSDAY
MORNING (4/17) ARE LISTED BELOW. WHILE RIVERS AND FLOODING
CONCERNS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING ACROSS OUR AREA...WARNINGS REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR SEVERAL MAINSTEM RIVERS...AND PORTIONS OF NRN NY/SLV
WHICH WERE PARTICULARLY HARD HIT. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST NWS STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS FOR RIVERS IN YOUR
SPECIFIC AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...QUIET/DRY WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING
PRONOUNCED SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH A
CONSIDERABLE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. BLENDED MODEL 925 MB
THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS ON THURSDAY REBOUNDING INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND AROUND 50 IN THE LARGER
VALLEYS...THEN SOLID 50S IN MOST SPOTS BY FRIDAY. A WELCOME CHANGE
FOR MOST.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DROPPING WEAK GREAT
LAKES SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE SLV SPREADING CLOUDS AND AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS/HIGHER ELEV SNOW SHOWERS TO OUR
AREA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...ESP IN COMPARISON
TO OUR MOST RECENT EVENT BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT I`VE OFFERED
SOLID 40-60 POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA..ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING LOW TEMPS SHOULD HOLD STEADY IN THE
30S AND PERHAPS RISE A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 314 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL WEEKEND AND
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IS IN STORE WITH A COUPLE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY
BRINGING WITH IT THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...AND HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY RANGE FROM 45-55F.
SOME NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM MAY LEAD TO LINGERING
MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD TO DRYING CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK OFF INTO THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

WE`LL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON SUNDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
START THE DAY...AND INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY.
HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY TO SEASONAL NORMS...WELL INTO THE 50S
FOR MOST. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. WHILE THE MAIN FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...THIS WILL STILL BRING
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THE ADDED
CLOUDS/MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S. HIGHS MONDAY
REACH 57-62F.

HAVE A SLIGHT BREAK MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH THE COLD
FRONT AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ON THE DOORSTEP FOR TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS TOO LOOKS TO REMAIN WEAK AND
PROGRESSIVE WITH ONLY CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS
TUESDAY LOOK SIMILAR TO MONDAY...IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY POST FRONTAL ON WEDNESDAY UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT...EXCEPT RUT WHERE
VALLEY INDUCED SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 5-10 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS THEN
TREND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 8-13 KTS THURSDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXCEPTION WILL BE MSS WHERE WINDS WILL
BE EAST/NORTHEAST.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS
WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS ADDITIONAL
FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...RUNOFF FROM YESTERDAY`S
RAINFALL/SNOWMELT EVENT CONTINUES TO LESSEN WITH TIME TODAY. WITH
NO NEW FLOODING ANTICIPATED AND CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING ACROSS
THE AREA...THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HOWEVER...SEVERAL
RIVERS REMAIN IN FLOOD AND PERSONS WITH INTERESTS ALONG AREA
WATERWAYS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS AND
WARNINGS FROM THE NWS IN BURLINGTON BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO..OR ONLINE AT: WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=BTV

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A SHORT LIST OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY...APRIL 17. PLEASE NOTE THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR KMPV AND
KMSS (1948) ARE CONSIDERABLY SHORTER THAN AT KBTV (1884).

SITERECORD DATE

KBTV 13F 1971
KMPV 17F 2003
KMSS 20F 2003

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...JMG/RJS
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV
CLIMATE...JMG








000
FXUS61 KALY 162335
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
735 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL
MODERATE...BUT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FURTHER BY FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
BEGINNING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT..A STRONG NEAR 1040MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BE CENTERED RIGHT OVER OUR REGION TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOWS
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS
IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 20S IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
REGION. WE ARE FORECASTING TO TIE A RECORD LOW AT ALBANY...WHICH
IS 21 DEGREE SET BACK IN 1971.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. LATEST 12Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CENTER
OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVING NORTHEAST INTO MAINE AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN...A SOUTHEASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION. T850 AND T925 PROFILES SHOW COLD AIR FUNNELING
DOWN EQUATORWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THIS WILL FUNNEL IN COOLER CONDITIONS FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
T850 RANGING BETWEEN -2C AND -5C AND T925 RANGING BETWEEN -1C AND
1C. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO HAVE SOME GRADIENT DEVELOPING
BASED OFF OF TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE 40S FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE DOWN SLOPPING WINDS
WILL CAUSE LOCAL VALLEY AREAS TO REACH THE LOWER AND MID 50S UNDER
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO
UPPER 20S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS

AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY...LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
SHOWS A PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
THAT IS VERY LIMITED IN MOISTURE SOURCES. THIS WILL LIMIT QPF TO
AREAS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS. SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SOUTHERLY STREAM JET STREAK THAT WILL PHASE
INTO THE NORTHERLY FLOW THAT MIGHT ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR
GREATER QPF AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO INITIAL LIMITED MOISTURE
SOURCES AND THE JET STREAK BEING DISPLACED FURTHER EAST OF THE
REGION WHEN DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE..CHANCES OF A HIGH QPF
SITUATION ARE LIMITED BUT WILL BE MONITORED. DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TRENDS IN THE EVENING HOURS WILL SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...LOWEST POPS WILL EXIST SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FARTHEST REMOVED FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LOCATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S IN HIGH TERRAIN TO UPPER 50S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ECMWF IS NOW TRENDING WARMER...AND THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BEGIN ON THE WET SIDE...WITH SHOWERS FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND...
BUT THINGS WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM JAMES BAY
AND ONTARIO.  A RELATIVELY WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...RENDERING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY.  CHC POPS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY...
THOUGH...GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THIS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACTUALLY ENDS UP AS IT TAPS ON INCREASING GULF MOISTURE.
EVENTUALLY...A LARGE RIDGE OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE POURS DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY FINALLY
BE DRY AGAIN.

DESPITE IT BEING AN ARCTIC HIGH MOVING IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL
BE A WELL MODIFIED AIR MASS...AND TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ON TUESDAY WILL BE ONLY A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
SUNDAY...LIKE WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND
60S...AND MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST A CARBON COPY OF TUESDAY/S WARMTH.
LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
RANGE...AND THESE WILL REBOUND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND ANOTHER 5 DEGREES FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER UNDER PARTIAL CLEARING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING
00Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR EXCEPT
FOR SOME OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 KT BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER IN THE DAY
PROVIDED A HALF AN INCH TO ONE AND AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY SNOWFALL RANGING FROM AROUND
ONE INCH TO AROUND FOUR INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED STILL REMAIN.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAVE LEAD THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THESE AREAS WITH MAINLY
MINOR OR MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRING. HOWEVER THERE IS MAJOR
FLOODING OCCURRING ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK. LARGER
MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS CONTINUE
TO RECEDE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS
TIME WHICH WILL BE UPDATED WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM/JPV
NEAR TERM...LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/LFM
HYDROLOGY...LFM/JPV








000
FXUS61 KALY 162019
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
419 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
DESPITE SUNSHINE...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MID MARCH. THE HIGH WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TRENDING
TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AFTER
SNOWFALL HAS MELTED IN MOST EXPOSED AREAS THIS MORNING UNDER THE
HIGH APRIL SUN ANGLE. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT THIS TIME
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
THIS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FURTHER BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE CENTER
BEING RIGHT OVER OUR CWA. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES
RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 20S IN
THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION. WE ARE FORECASTING TO TIE A RECORD
LOW WHICH IS 21 THAT WAS SET BACK IN 1971.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. LATEST 12Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CENTER
OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVING NORTHEAST INTO MAINE AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN...A SOUTHEASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION. T850 AND T925 PROFILES SHOW COLD AIR FUNNELING
DOWN EQUATORWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THIS WILL FUNNEL IN COOLER CONDITIONS FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
T850 RANGING BETWEEN -2C AND -5C AND T925 RANGING BETWEEN -1C AND
1C. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO HAVE SOME GRADIENT DEVELOPING
BASED OFF OF TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE 40S FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE DOWN SLOPPING WINDS
WILL CAUSE LOCAL VALLEY AREAS TO REACH THE LOWER AND MID 50S UNDER
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO
UPPER 20S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS

AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY...LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
SHOWS A PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
THAT IS VERY LIMITED IN MOISTURE SOURCES. THIS WILL LIMIT QPF TO
AREAS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS. SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SOUTHERLY STREAM JET STREAK THAT WILL PHASE
INTO THE NORTHERLY FLOW THAT MIGHT ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR
GREATER QPF AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO INITIAL LIMITED MOISTURE
SOURCES AND THE JET STREAK BEING DISPLACED FURTHER EAST OF THE
REGION WHEN DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE..CHANCES OF A HIGH QPF
SITUATION ARE LIMITED BUT WILL BE MONITORED. DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TRENDS IN THE EVENING HOURS WILL SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...LOWEST POPS WILL EXIST SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FARTHEST REMOVED FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LOCATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S IN HIGH TERRAIN TO UPPER 50S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ECMWF IS NOW TRENDING WARMER...AND THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BEGIN ON THE WET SIDE...WITH SHOWERS FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND...
BUT THINGS WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM JAMES BAY
AND ONTARIO.  A RELATIVELY WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...RENDERING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY.  CHC POPS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY...
THOUGH...GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THIS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACTUALLY ENDS UP AS IT TAPS ON INCREASING GULF MOISTURE.
EVENTUALLY...A LARGE RIDGE OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE POURS DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY FINALLY
BE DRY AGAIN.

DESPITE IT BEING AN ARCTIC HIGH MOVING IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL
BE A WELL MODIFIED AIR MASS...AND TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ON TUESDAY WILL BE ONLY A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
SUNDAY...LIKE WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND
60S...AND MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST A CARBON COPY OF TUESDAY/S WARMTH.
LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
RANGE...AND THESE WILL REBOUND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND ANOTHER 5 DEGREES FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER UNDER PARTIAL CLEARING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...18Z/THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND CRESTS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. ANY LINGERING FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON THEN ONLY SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

BRISK AND GUSTY MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON EVENTUALLY BECOMING CALM FOR THE OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER IN THE DAY
PROVIDED A HALF AN INCH TO ONE AND AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY SNOWFALL RANGING FROM AROUND
ONE INCH TO AROUND FOUR INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED STILL REMAIN.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGION WIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAVE LEAD THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THESE AREAS WITH MAINLY
MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRING. HOWEVER THERE IS MAJOR FLOODING
OCCURRING ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK. LARGER MAIN STEM
RIVERS WILL CREST TODAY OR HAVE CRESTED.

COLDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING HAS MOVED INTO OUR AREA.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLOWING
DOWN THE RUNOFF. SOME SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SMALL RISES
TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM SNOW MELT.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS WILL
RECEDE LATER THIS WEEK AFTER SOME RIVERS REACHING CREST SOMETIME
TODAY OR EARLY TOMORROW. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS TIME WHICH
WILL BE UPDATED WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/LFM
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/LFM








000
FXUS61 KBTV 161940
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
TOMORROW...A STRONG MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR WITH
READINGS RETURNING TO SEASONAL APRIL NORMS BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OCCURS BY SATURDAY
AS A WEAK FRONT BRINGS A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...QUIET AND VERY COLD NIGHT EXPECTED AS
STRONG 1040 MB POLAR HIGH SETTLES DIRECTLY ATOP THE REGION. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE ALONG WITH IDEAL RADATIONAL
COOLING AS READINGS BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS FOR MOST SPOTS. A
SHORT LIST OF LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING (4/17) ARE LISTED BELOW.
WHILE RIVERS AND FLOODING CONCERNS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING ACROSS OUR
AREA...WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL MAINSTEM RIVERS...AND
PORTIONS OF NRN NY/SLV WHICH WERE PARTICULARLY HARD HIT. FOR MORE
INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS
FOR RIVERS IN YOUR SPECIFIC AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...QUIET/DRY WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING
PRONOUNCED SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH A
CONSIDERABLE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. BLENDED MODEL 925 MB
THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS ON THURSDAY REBOUNDING INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND AROUND 50 IN THE LARGER
VALLEYS...THEN SOLID 50S IN MOST SPOTS BY FRIDAY. A WELCOME CHANGE
FOR MOST.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DROPPING WEAK GREAT
LAKES SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE SLV SPREADING CLOUDS AND AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS/HIGHER ELEV SNOW SHOWERS TO OUR
AREA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...ESP IN COMPARISON
TO OUR MOST RECENT EVENT BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT I`VE OFFERED
SOLID 40-60 POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA..ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING LOW TEMPS SHOULD HOLD STEADY IN THE
30S AND PERHAPS RISE A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 314 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL WEEKEND AND
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IS IN STORE WITH A COUPLE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY
BRINGING WITH IT THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...AND HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY RANGE FROM 45-55F.
SOME NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM MAY LEAD TO LINGERING
MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD TO DRYING CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK OFF INTO THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

WE`LL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON SUNDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
START THE DAY...AND INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY.
HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY TO SEASONAL NORMS...WELL INTO THE 50S
FOR MOST. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. WHILE THE MAIN FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...THIS WILL STILL BRING
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THE ADDED
CLOUDS/MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S. HIGHS MONDAY
REACH 57-62F.

HAVE A SLIGHT BREAK MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH THE COLD
FRONT AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ON THE DOORSTEP FOR TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS TOO LOOKS TO REMAIN WEAK AND
PROGRESSIVE WITH ONLY CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS
TUESDAY LOOK SIMILAR TO MONDAY...IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY POST FRONTAL ON WEDNESDAY UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH NO PCPN THROUGH THE
24-HR FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AT
VT TERMINALS TO GRADUALLY ABATE THROUGH 00Z...TRENDING LIGHT AND
VRB OVERNIGHT AS SKIES TREND CLEAR. EXCEPTION AT KRUT WHERE VALLEY
INDUCED SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 5-10 KTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN
TREND SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5-10 KTS AT OTHER TERMINALS AFTER
12Z...THOUGH EAST/NORTHEASTERLY AT KMSS.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS
WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS ADDITIONAL
FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...RUNOFF FROM YESTERDAY`S
RAINFALL/SNOWMELT EVENT CONTINUES TO LESSEN WITH TIME TODAY. WITH
NO NEW FLOODING ANTICIPATED AND CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING ACROSS
THE AREA...THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HOWEVER...SEVERAL
RIVERS REMAIN IN FLOOD AND PERSONS WITH INTERESTS ALONG AREA
WATERWAYS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS AND
WARNINGS FROM THE NWS IN BURLINGTON BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO..OR ONLINE AT: WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=BTV

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A SHORT LIST OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY...APRIL 17. PLEASE NOTE THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR KMPV AND
KMSS (1948) ARE CONSIDERABLY SHORTER THAN AT KBTV (1884).

SITERECORD DATE

KBTV 13F 1971
KMPV 17F 2003
KMSS 20F 2003

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...JMG
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON
CLIMATE...JMG







000
FXUS61 KBTV 161920
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
320 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMING TO AN END ACROSS VERMONT
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPS AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DID OPT TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO BASED OFF
CURRENT TRENDS OTW EXPECTING SKIES TO CONTINUE TO CLEAR IN ALL
AREAS BY EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SLOWLY ABATING
AND TRENDING LIGHT AND VRB BY 8/9 PM. ENJOY THE REST OF YOUR DAY.
PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
MINOR UPDATE TO KEEP A CHC FLURRIES/SHSN GOING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BASED OFF CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
DATA. HIGHEST COVERAGE TO OCCUR IN VERMONT. OTHERWISE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH CLEARING PROCESS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY
UNDER MODERATELY GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES
TOPPING OUT IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL AND THEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
THERE SHOULD ALSO BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 314 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL WEEKEND AND
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IS IN STORE WITH A COUPLE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY
BRINGING WITH IT THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...AND HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY RANGE FROM 45-55F.
SOME NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM MAY LEAD TO LINGERING
MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD TO DRYING CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK OFF INTO THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

WE`LL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON SUNDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
START THE DAY...AND INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY.
HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY TO SEASONAL NORMS...WELL INTO THE 50S
FOR MOST. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. WHILE THE MAIN FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...THIS WILL STILL BRING
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THE ADDED
CLOUDS/MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S. HIGHS MONDAY
REACH 57-62F.

HAVE A SLIGHT BREAK MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH THE COLD
FRONT AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ON THE DOORSTEP FOR TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS TOO LOOKS TO REMAIN WEAK AND
PROGRESSIVE WITH ONLY CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS
TUESDAY LOOK SIMILAR TO MONDAY...IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY POST FRONTAL ON WEDNESDAY UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH NO PCPN THROUGH THE
24-HR FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AT
VT TERMINALS TO GRADUALLY ABATE THROUGH 00Z...TRENDING LIGHT AND
VRB OVERNIGHT AS SKIES TREND CLEAR. EXCEPTION AT KRUT WHERE VALLEY
INDUCED SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 5-10 KTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN
TREND SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5-10 KTS AT OTHER TERMINALS AFTER
12Z...THOUGH EAST/NORTHEASTERLY AT KMSS.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS
WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS ADDITIONAL
FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT ANY
HIGH ELEVATION SNOWMELT TODAY AND NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS PICKED UP
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY. NEVERTHELESS...MANY
OF THE LARGER RIVERS ARE STILL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. SOME HAVE
CRESTED WHILE OTHERS STILL RISE...THUS MORE FLOODING IS EXPECTED
RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE
EITHER CRESTING OR FALLING...SO GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
TODAY. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED FLOOD THREAT...THE FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...JMG
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON








000
FXUS61 KALY 161754
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
154 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
DESPITE SUNSHINE...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MID MARCH. THE HIGH WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TRENDING
TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL FEEL LIKE MID MARCH WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S THIS AFTERNOON. BRISK AND GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ONLY ADD TO THE CHILL. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO
LOWER AND MID 30S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. A BIT COOLER TO START THE
DAY DUE TO A PREVIOUS COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION
EARLIER THIS MORNING PRODUCING 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW REPORTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...PLEASE REFER TO OUR PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY.
LOOKING AT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH FLOW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. WILL HAVE GOOD MIXING
SO WINDS WILL BE RATHER BRISK AND GUSTY ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY AND THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR DURING EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MIGHT INCREASE DUE TO
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. EVEN SO...NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT. THE WILD CARD IS HOW FAST THE SNOW COVER
WILL MELT TODAY. GIVEN A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...WE BELIEVE MOST OF IT WILL MELT. IF THAT
ISN`T THE CASE...TEMPERATURES COULD EVEN COLDER. (OUR FORECAST AGAIN
ASSUMES MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THE ADIRONDACK PARK WILL HAVE VERY
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW LEFT BY TONIGHT).

EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS NORTH.

THESE VALUES SHOULD JUST MISS RECORD LOWS. THE RECORD LOW AT ALBANY
FOR APRIL 17TH IS 21 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1971. IF SNOW REMAINS ON
THE GRASS BY TONIGHT...THERE IS AN INCREASED POSSIBILITY OF THIS
RECORD BEING ECLIPSED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. HIGHS THAT
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OFFER A GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR A QUICKER
WARMUP DUE TO A MORE SSW FLOW. A HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL MEAN
MORE OF A SE FLOW WHICH THIS TIME OF YEAR USUALLY MEANS LESS OF WARM
UP. THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...SO SUNSHINE WILL BE MAIN PLAYER
MODERATING THE AIR MASS ON THURSDAY. WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...WE
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH BACK TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 50S MOST VALLEY AREAS.

ANY LIGHT BREEZE LOOKS TO DECOUPLE THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY EVERYONE LOOKS TO GET BELOW FREEZING ONCE
MORE...GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

FRIDAY...STILL WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE MORE BACK INTO THE 50S...UPPER 50S FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. THESE VALUES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
MID APRIL.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AS WELL. IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MORE ABOUT THE CLIPPER WILL BE FOUND IN LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT ON THE WET SIDE WITH SHOWERS
EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. DRIER WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SATURDAY
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FA WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ALLOT OF MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DIMINISHING GREATLY AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH THE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...18Z/THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND CRESTS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. ANY LINGERING FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON THEN ONLY SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

BRISK AND GUSTY MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON EVENTUALLY BECOMING CALM FOR THE OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. IN ADDITION MOST AREAS RECEIVED ACCUMULATION
SNOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH SOME PLACES IN
CONNECTICUT LOOKED TO HAVE PICKED UP TO 6 INCHES.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED LINGERED.

IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND BREEZY DAY WITH WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 MPH OR A LITTLE HIGHER.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGIONWIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAVE LEAD THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THESE AREAS WITH MAINLY
MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRING. HOWEVER THERE IS MAJOR FLOODING
OCCURRING ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK. LARGER MAIN STEM
RIVERS WILL CREST TODAY OR HAVE CRESTED.

COLDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING HAS MOVED INTO OUR AREA.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLOWING
DOWN THE RUNOFF. SOME SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SMALL RISES
TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM SNOW MELT.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS WILL
RECEDE LATER THIS WEEK. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/LFM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/SND/HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 161725
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
125 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMING TO AN END ACROSS VERMONT
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPS AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DID OPT TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO BASED OFF
CURRENT TRENDS OTW EXPECTING SKIES TO CONTINUE TO CLEAR IN ALL
AREAS BY EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SLOWLY ABATING
AND TRENDING LIGHT AND VRB BY 8/9 PM. ENJOY THE REST OF YOUR DAY.
PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
MINOR UPDATE TO KEEP A CHC FLURRIES/SHSN GOING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BASED OFF CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
DATA. HIGHEST COVERAGE TO OCCUR IN VERMONT. OTHERWISE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH CLEARING PROCESS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY
UNDER MODERATELY GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES
TOPPING OUT IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL AND THEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
THERE SHOULD ALSO BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THUS
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH NO PCPN THROUGH THE
24-HR FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AT
VT TERMINALS TO GRADUALLY ABATE THROUGH 00Z...TRENDING LIGHT AND
VRB OVERNIGHT AS SKIES TREND CLEAR. EXCEPTION AT KRUT WHERE VALLEY
INDUCED SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 5-10 KTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN
TREND SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5-10 KTS AT OTHER TERMINALS AFTER
12Z...THOUGH EAST/NORTHEASTERLY AT KMSS.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS
WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS ADDITIONAL
FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT ANY
HIGH ELEVATION SNOWMELT TODAY AND NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS PICKED UP
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY. NEVERTHELESS...MANY
OF THE LARGER RIVERS ARE STILL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. SOME HAVE
CRESTED WHILE OTHERS STILL RISE...THUS MORE FLOODING IS EXPECTED
RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE
EITHER CRESTING OR FALLING...SO GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
TODAY. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED FLOOD THREAT...THE FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...JMG
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON







000
FXUS61 KALY 161651
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1251 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
DESPITE SUNSHINE...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MID MARCH. THE HIGH
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TRENDING
TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL FEEL LIKE MID MARCH WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S THIS AFTERNOON. BRISK AND GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ONLY ADD TO THE CHILL. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO
LOWER AND MID 30S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. A BIT COOLER TO START THE
DAY DUE TO A PREVIOUS COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION
EARLIER THIS MORNING PRODUCING 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW REPORTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...PLEASE REFER TO OUR PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY.
LOOKING AT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH FLOW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. WILL HAVE GOOD MIXING
SO WINDS WILL BE RATHER BRISK AND GUSTY ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY AND THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR DURING EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MIGHT INCREASE DUE TO
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. EVEN SO...NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT. THE WILD CARD IS HOW FAST THE SNOW COVER
WILL MELT TODAY. GIVEN A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...WE BELIEVE MOST OF IT WILL MELT. IF THAT
ISN`T THE CASE...TEMPERATURES COULD EVEN COLDER. (OUR FORECAST AGAIN
ASSUMES MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THE ADIRONDACK PARK WILL HAVE VERY
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW LEFT BY TONIGHT).

EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS NORTH.

THESE VALUES SHOULD JUST MISS RECORD LOWS. THE RECORD LOW AT ALBANY
FOR APRIL 17TH IS 21 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1971. IF SNOW REMAINS ON
THE GRASS BY TONIGHT...THERE IS AN INCREASED POSSIBILITY OF THIS
RECORD BEING ECLIPSED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. HIGHS THAT
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OFFER A GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR A QUICKER
WARMUP DUE TO A MORE SSW FLOW. A HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL MEAN
MORE OF A SE FLOW WHICH THIS TIME OF YEAR USUALLY MEANS LESS OF WARM
UP. THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...SO SUNSHINE WILL BE MAIN PLAYER
MODERATING THE AIR MASS ON THURSDAY. WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...WE
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH BACK TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 50S MOST VALLEY AREAS.

ANY LIGHT BREEZE LOOKS TO DECOUPLE THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY EVERYONE LOOKS TO GET BELOW FREEZING ONCE
MORE...GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

FRIDAY...STILL WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE MORE BACK INTO THE 50S...UPPER 50S FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. THESE VALUES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
MID APRIL.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AS WELL. IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MORE ABOUT THE CLIPPER WILL BE FOUND IN LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT ON THE WET SIDE WITH SHOWERS
EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. DRIER WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SATURDAY
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FA WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ALLOT OF MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DIMINISHING GREATLY AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH THE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS FROM THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. IN ADDITION MOST AREAS RECEIVED ACCUMULATION
SNOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH SOME PLACES IN
CONNECTICUT LOOKED TO HAVE PICKED UP TO 6 INCHES.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED LINGERED.

IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND BREEZY DAY WITH WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 MPH OR A LITTLE HIGHER.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGIONWIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAVE LEAD THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THESE AREAS WITH MAINLY
MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRING. HOWEVER THERE IS MAJOR FLOODING
OCCURRING ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK. LARGER MAIN STEM
RIVERS WILL CREST TODAY OR HAVE CRESTED.

COLDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING HAS MOVED INTO OUR AREA.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLOWING
DOWN THE RUNOFF. SOME SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SMALL RISES
TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM SNOW MELT.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS WILL
RECEDE LATER THIS WEEK. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/LFM
NEAR TERM...IAA/LFM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KALY 161424
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1024 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
DESPITE SUNSHINE...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MID MARCH. THE HIGH
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TRENDING
TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL FEEL LIKE MID MARCH WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S THIS AFTERNOON. BRISK AND GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ONLY ADD TO THE CHILL. PLUS WE HAD 1/2
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW REPORTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...PLEASE
REFER TO OUR PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY.
LOOKING AT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH FLOW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. WILL HAVE GOOD MIXING
SO WINDS WILL BE RATHER BRISK AND GUSTY ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY AND THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR DURING EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MIGHT INCREASE DUE TO
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. EVEN SO...NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT. THE WILD CARD IS HOW FAST THE SNOW COVER
WILL MELT TODAY. GIVEN A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...WE BELIEVE MOST OF IT WILL MELT. IF THAT
ISN`T THE CASE...TEMPERATURES COULD EVEN COLDER. (OUR FORECAST AGAIN
ASSUMES MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THE ADIRONDACK PARK WILL HAVE VERY
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW LEFT BY TONIGHT).

EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS NORTH.

THESE VALUES SHOULD JUST MISS RECORD LOWS. THE RECORD LOW AT ALBANY
FOR APRIL 17TH IS 21 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1971. IF SNOW REMAINS ON
THE GRASS BY TONIGHT...THERE IS AN INCREASED POSSIBILITY OF THIS
RECORD BEING ECLIPSED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. HIGHS THAT
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OFFER A GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR A QUICKER
WARMUP DUE TO A MORE SSW FLOW. A HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL MEAN
MORE OF A SE FLOW WHICH THIS TIME OF YEAR USUALLY MEANS LESS OF WARM
UP. THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...SO SUNSHINE WILL BE MAIN PLAYER
MODERATING THE AIR MASS ON THURSDAY. WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...WE
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH BACK TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 50S MOST VALLEY AREAS.

ANY LIGHT BREEZE LOOKS TO DECOUPLE THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY EVERYONE LOOKS TO GET BELOW FREEZING ONCE
MORE...GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

FRIDAY...STILL WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE MORE BACK INTO THE 50S...UPPER 50S FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. THESE VALUES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
MID APRIL.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AS WELL. IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MORE ABOUT THE CLIPPER WILL BE FOUND IN LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT ON THE WET SIDE WITH SHOWERS
EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. DRIER WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SATURDAY
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FA WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ALLOT OF MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DIMINISHING GREATLY AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH THE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS FROM THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. IN ADDITION MOST AREAS RECEIVED ACCUMULATION
SNOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH SOME PLACES IN
CONNECTICUT LOOKED TO HAVE PICKED UP TO 6 INCHES.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED LINGERED.

IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND BREEZY DAY WITH WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 MPH OR A LITTLE HIGHER.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGIONWIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAVE LEAD THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THESE AREAS WITH MAINLY
MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRING. HOWEVER THERE IS MAJOR FLOODING
OCCURRING ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK. LARGER MAIN STEM
RIVERS WILL CREST TODAY OR HAVE CRESTED.

COLDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING HAS MOVED INTO OUR AREA.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLOWING
DOWN THE RUNOFF. SOME SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SMALL RISES
TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM SNOW MELT.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS WILL
RECEDE LATER THIS WEEK. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/SND/HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 161322
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
922 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMING TO AN END ACROSS VERMONT
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 921 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO KEEP A CHC
FLURRIES/SHSN GOING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS BASED OFF CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA. HIGHEST COVERAGE TO
OCCUR IN VERMONT. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH
CLEARING PROCESS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY UNDER MODERATELY GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL AND THEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
THERE SHOULD ALSO BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THUS
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WINDS NORTHWEST GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND
DEPARTING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES.
BECOMING VFR THIS MORNING AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. HAVE INCLUDED
TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT MPV/RUT/MSS. AFTER 14Z
WEDNESDAY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS IN THE MORNING. WINDS NORTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
20-25 KNOTS...DIMINISHING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SKIES
BECOMING CLEAR.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. VFR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT ANY
HIGH ELEVATION SNOWMELT TODAY AND NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS PICKED UP
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY. NEVERTHELESS...MANY
OF THE LARGER RIVERS ARE STILL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. SOME HAVE
CRESTED WHILE OTHERS STILL RISE...THUS MORE FLOODING IS EXPECTED
RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE
EITHER CRESTING OR FALLING...SO GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
TODAY. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED FLOOD THREAT...THE FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...NEILES
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON







000
FXUS61 KALY 161213
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
813 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
DESPITE SUNSHINE...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MID MARCH. THE HIGH
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TRENDING
TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...STILL TRACKING SOME LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST BUT THESE WERE DIMINISHING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION...TEENS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOME OF THE COLDER SPOTS IN OTHER HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS ...20S ACROSS MOST OF THE MAJORITY OF AREAS.

MOST OF OUR AREA RECEIVED ACCUMULATING SNOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4
INCH RANGE. A BAND OF BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW SET UP ACROSS LITCHFIELD
COUNTY WHERE UP TO LOCALLY UP TO 6 INCHES HAVE FALLEN. PLEASE REFER
TO PUBLIC STATEMENTS FOR ALL OUR LATEST SNOWFALL MEASUREMENTS.

WE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ADDRESSING THIS SITUATION THAT
WILL RUN THROUGH MORNING DRIVE (800 AM) FOR STANDING FROZEN SLUSH
AND BLACK ICE.

WE WILL BE LEFT WITH A DRY BUT COLD DAY FOR TODAY. CLOUDS WILL
GENERALLY DECREASE. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY NEAR OR EVEN A
LITTLE BELOW -10C. EVEN WITH GOOD MIXING AND GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
(MIXED WITH FAIR WEATHER CU)...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE NO HIGHER
THAN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. EVEN IN
THE VALLEY AREAS...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 40 TO 45
RANGE. TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS...THANKS TO A MORE DOWNSLOPING
WIND...HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

THESE VALUES ARE PERFECTLY NORMAL FOR MID MARCH...BUT OVER 10
DEGREES LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR MID APRIL. A GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WIND 10 TO 25 MPH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY AND THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR DURING EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MIGHT INCREASE DUE TO
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. EVEN SO...NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT. THE WILD CARD IS HOW FAST THE SNOW COVER
WILL MELT TODAY. GIVEN A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...WE BELIEVE MOST OF IT WILL MELT. IF THAT
ISN`T THE CASE...TEMPERATURES COULD EVEN COLDER. (OUR FORECAST AGAIN
ASSUMES MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THE ADIRONDACK PARK WILL HAVE VERY
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW LEFT BY TONIGHT).

EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS NORTH.

THESE VALUES SHOULD JUST MISS RECORD LOWS. THE RECORD LOW AT ALBANY
FOR APRIL 17TH IS 21 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1971. IF SNOW REMAINS ON
THE GRASS BY TONIGHT...THERE IS AN INCREASED POSSIBILITY OF THIS
RECORD BEING ECLIPSED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. HIGHS THAT
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OFFER A GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR A QUICKER
WARMUP DUE TO A MORE SSW FLOW. A HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL MEAN
MORE OF A SE FLOW WHICH THIS TIME OF YEAR USUALLY MEANS LESS OF WARM
UP. THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...SO SUNSHINE WILL BE MAIN PLAYER
MODERATING THE AIR MASS ON THURSDAY. WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...WE
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH BACK TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 50S MOST VALLEY AREAS.

ANY LIGHT BREEZE LOOKS TO DECOUPLE THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY EVERYONE LOOKS TO GET BELOW FREEZING ONCE
MORE...GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

FRIDAY...STILL WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE MORE BACK INTO THE 50S...UPPER 50S FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. THESE VALUES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
MID APRIL.

FRIDAY NIGHT...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AS WELL. IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MORE ABOUT THE CLIPPER WILL BE FOUND IN LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT ON THE WET SIDE WITH SHOWERS
EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. DRIER WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SATURDAY
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FA WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ALLOT OF MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DIMINISHING GREATLY AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH THE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...12Z/THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS FROM THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. IN ADDITION MOST AREAS RECEIVED ACCUMULATION
SNOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH SOME PLACES IN
CONNECTICUT LOOKED TO HAVE PICKED UP TO 6 INCHES.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED LINGERED.

IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND BREEZY DAY WITH WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 MPH OR A LITTLE HIGHER.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING
REGIONWIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD RAIN OF AN INCH TO TWO INCHES ALONG WITH SNOW MELT
HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT MANY RIVER
POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AND SOME PLACES HAVE REACHED OR WILL REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE ALONG THE
SCHROON RIVER. MANY HEADWATER POINTS HAVE CRESTED BUT RISES WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY ON THE LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS.

COLDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING HAS MOVED INTO OUR AREA.
ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLOWING
DOWN THE RUNOFF. SOME SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SMALL RISES
TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM SNOW MELT.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS WILL
RECEDE LATER THIS WEEK. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 161137
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
737 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMING TO AN END ACROSS VERMONT
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 733 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CLEARING CONTINUES TO TAKE PLACE
RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH JUST SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
MAINLY OVER VERMONT. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
SCENARIO AND TONED BACK ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS TO JUST THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS PRONOUNCED DRYING TAKES PLACE. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL AND THEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
THERE SHOULD ALSO BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THUS
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WINDS NORTHWEST GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND
DEPARTING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES.
BECOMING VFR THIS MORNING AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. HAVE INCLUDED
TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT MPV/RUT/MSS. AFTER 14Z
WEDNESDAY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS IN THE MORNING. WINDS NORTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
20-25 KNOTS...DIMINISHING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SKIES
BECOMING CLEAR.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. VFR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT ANY
HIGH ELEVATION SNOWMELT TODAY AND NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS PICKED UP
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY. NEVERTHELESS...MANY
OF THE LARGER RIVERS ARE STILL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. SOME HAVE
CRESTED WHILE OTHERS STILL RISE...THUS MORE FLOODING IS EXPECTED
RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE
EITHER CRESTING OR FALLING...SO GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
TODAY. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED FLOOD THREAT...THE FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...NEILES
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON






000
FXUS61 KBTV 161133
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
733 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMING TO AN END ACROSS VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 733 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...CLEARING CONTINUES TO TAKE PLACE
RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH JUST SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
MAINLY OVER VERMONT. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
SCENARIO AND TONED BACK ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS TO JUST THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS PRONOUNCED DRYING TAKES PLACE. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 348 PM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL AND THEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
THERE SHOULD ALSO BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THUS CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WINDS NORTHWEST GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS BEHIND
DEPARTING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES.
SNOW HAS ENDED AT MOST TAF SITES WITH EXCEPTION OF MPV AND SLK.
BOTH SITES SHOULD SEE SNOW ENDING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MVFR
CEILINGS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN BECOMING
VFR TOWARDS MORNING AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. AFTER 13Z WEDNESDAY
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING. WINDS NORTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25
KNOTS...DIMINISHING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SKIES BECOMING
CLEAR.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. VFR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 348 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT ANY HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWMELT TODAY AND NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS PICKED UP BETWEEN ONE AND TWO
INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY. NEVERTHELESS...MANY OF THE LARGER RIVERS
ARE STILL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. SOME HAVE CRESTED WHILE OTHERS STILL
RISE...THUS MORE FLOODING IS EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
THE SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EITHER CRESTING OR FALLING...SO
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TODAY. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED
FLOOD THREAT...THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...NEILES
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON








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