Home > Products > State Listing > Vermont Data
Latest:
 AFDBTV |  AFDALY |
  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 301452
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1052 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1030 AM... LOT OF CLOUDS COVERING CENTRAL NY THIS
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 MB SHORT WAVE AND SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN BREAKING UP AS THEY DOWNSLOPE INTO THE MID AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER VT AND WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH SOME 40S OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

AS OF 630 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS
BECAUSE CURRENT TEMPS WERE MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY...AS A SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF
WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS IN THE 6-8 KFT AGL RANGE LOWERING TO 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KPOU WHERE SOME MVFR MIST WILL LINGER FORMA FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL
14Z.  EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
START TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME SCT CUMULUS
AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND TONIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE TO
4-8 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBTV 301441
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1041 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
FRIDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1023 AM EDT THURSDAY...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING AS WV/IR SATELLITE INDICATE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE SUPPORTED A FEW POSSIBLE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER TODAY BEFORE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN LATER TONIGHT. AS FAR AS THE TEMPS AND WX
FORECAST, THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS ON TRACK AND SO THE ONLY
TWEAKS WERE TO REFRESH THE 11AM THROUGH 1PM FORECAST BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 600 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP SHOWING SOME RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE UPDATED THE ZONE
FORECASTS FOR THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...NO
CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT THURSDAY...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...AS WIND FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AS WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

ON FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY.
THUS...THIS TAKES THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS IS A CHANGE
FROM A FEW DAYS AGO WITH HAD THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR OVER OR
REGION. MODEL SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK...ESPECIALLY THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
ON SATURDAY...MODELS DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TAKE IT NORTHEAST WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL JUST HAVE LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY...WITH THE UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH HANDLING POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED DIGGING TROF AND
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRES ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. CONSENSUS SHOWS DEEP
FULL LATITUDE TROF ACRS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPING 50 TO 75 MILES EAST OF THE 40/70
BENCHMARK. THIS IS AN UNFAVORABLE TRACK FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
ACRS OUR CWA...AS BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WL BE EAST OF OUR
CWA...HOWEVER BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME MID LVL RH AND BACKSIDE
VORT SLIDING ACRS OUR CWA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS WL SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACRS
OUR CWA. STILL LOOKING AT A LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE
MTNS BY SUNDAY MORNING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN -7C AND -9C BY
12Z SUNDAY...ON BRISK NORTH WINDS. EXPECTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S
MTNS TO M30S/L40S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDS...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NE
CONUS...AS TROF LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS WL RESULT IN
RISING HGHTS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS
ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA...BUT VERY DRY AIR ALOFT.
THINKING LOWS WL RANGE FROM NEAR 20F SLK/COLDER VALLEYS TO NEAR
30S ACRS THE CPV. IF WINDS ARE LIGHTER THAN PROGGED...TEMPS COULD
FALL INTO THE TEENS AT OUR COLDER LOCATIONS. LLVL WAA RESULTS IN
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 0C BY 00Z TUES AND BTWN 2-4C BY
00Z WEDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. HIGHS WL WARM INTO THE M/U 30S
MTNS TO M/U 40S VALLEYS ON MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT
SHARP INVERSION ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AS WARMING ALOFT OCCURS.
LOWS WL RANGE FROM M20S TO M30S ON MONDAY NIGHT...COLDEST TEMPS
WL BE ACRS THE NEK OF VT...WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE
SLV/DACKS. NEXT SYSTEM WL PRODUCE MORE CLOUDS ON TUESDAY WITH CHCS
FOR RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY BY LATE TUES INTO WEDS. TEMPS WITH
SOUTHWEST FLW WL WARM INTO THE U40S TO M50S FOR TUES/WEDS AND LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK S/W AND ASSOCIATED
MID LVL MOISTURE MOVING ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN TAF SITES
ATTM...WITH SOME SPRINKLES/FLURRIES SHOWING UP ON LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY. CRNT OBS SHOW VFR AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT IFR CIGS AT
SLK. SOUNDINGS CONT TO SUPPORT IFR CIGS AT SLK THRU 14Z...BEFORE
LIFTING TO MVFR THEN VFR BY THIS AFTN. ELSEWHERE...COULD SEE MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP AT MPV THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH NW FLW BEHIND SFC
BOUNDARY. REST OF TAF SITES WL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS
HGHTS BTWN 4000 AND 6000 FEET. LOOK FOR NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS TODAY...BECOME LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN TONIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... MOISTURE WL APPROACH OUR
WESTERN TAF SITES BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT VALLEY RAIN AND
MTN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AFTN INTO
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AT MSS/SLK. EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS ON
SATURDAY WITH SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES...AND SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY AT MPV/SLK. IN ADDITION...AS SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF-
SHORE...BREEZY NORTH WINDS WL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE ALIGNED NORTH TO SOUTH VALLEYS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 301138
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
738 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
FRIDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTH
CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE UPDATED THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR THIS MORNING
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 450 AM EDT THURSDAY...MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SEE BREAKS IN THIS CLOUDY COVER ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO...SO COULD SEE SOME PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION LATER TODAY. CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES FAIRLY
MILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...SO WILL SEE SOME MILD
TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY...BUT NOT AS WARM AS YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT THURSDAY...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...AS WIND FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AS WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

ON FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY.
THUS...THIS TAKES THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS IS A CHANGE
FROM A FEW DAYS AGO WITH HAD THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR OVER OR
REGION. MODEL SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK...ESPECIALLY THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
ON SATURDAY...MODELS DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TAKE IT NORTHEAST WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL JUST HAVE LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY...WITH THE UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH HANDLING POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED DIGGING TROF AND
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRES ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. CONSENSUS SHOWS DEEP
FULL LATITUDE TROF ACRS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPING 50 TO 75 MILES EAST OF THE 40/70
BENCHMARK. THIS IS AN UNFAVORABLE TRACK FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
ACRS OUR CWA...AS BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WL BE EAST OF OUR
CWA...HOWEVER BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME MID LVL RH AND BACKSIDE
VORT SLIDING ACRS OUR CWA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS WL SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACRS
OUR CWA. STILL LOOKING AT A LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE
MTNS BY SUNDAY MORNING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN -7C AND -9C BY
12Z SUNDAY...ON BRISK NORTH WINDS. EXPECTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S
MTNS TO M30S/L40S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDS...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NE
CONUS...AS TROF LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS WL RESULT IN
RISING HGHTS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS
ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA...BUT VERY DRY AIR ALOFT.
THINKING LOWS WL RANGE FROM NEAR 20F SLK/COLDER VALLEYS TO NEAR
30S ACRS THE CPV. IF WINDS ARE LIGHTER THAN PROGGED...TEMPS COULD
FALL INTO THE TEENS AT OUR COLDER LOCATIONS. LLVL WAA RESULTS IN
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 0C BY 00Z TUES AND BTWN 2-4C BY
00Z WEDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. HIGHS WL WARM INTO THE M/U 30S
MTNS TO M/U 40S VALLEYS ON MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT
SHARP INVERSION ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AS WARMING ALOFT OCCURS.
LOWS WL RANGE FROM M20S TO M30S ON MONDAY NIGHT...COLDEST TEMPS
WL BE ACRS THE NEK OF VT...WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE
SLV/DACKS. NEXT SYSTEM WL PRODUCE MORE CLOUDS ON TUESDAY WITH CHCS
FOR RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY BY LATE TUES INTO WEDS. TEMPS WITH
SOUTHWEST FLW WL WARM INTO THE U40S TO M50S FOR TUES/WEDS AND LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK S/W AND ASSOCIATED
MID LVL MOISTURE MOVING ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN TAF SITES
ATTM...WITH SOME SPRINKLES/FLURRIES SHOWING UP ON LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY. CRNT OBS SHOW VFR AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT IFR CIGS AT
SLK. SOUNDINGS CONT TO SUPPORT IFR CIGS AT SLK THRU 14Z...BEFORE
LIFTING TO MVFR THEN VFR BY THIS AFTN. ELSEWHERE...COULD SEE MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP AT MPV THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH NW FLW BEHIND SFC
BOUNDARY. REST OF TAF SITES WL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS
HGHTS BTWN 4000 AND 6000 FEET. LOOK FOR NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS TODAY...BECOME LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN TONIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... MOISTURE WL APPROACH OUR
WESTERN TAF SITES BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT VALLEY RAIN AND
MTN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AFTN INTO
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AT MSS/SLK. EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS ON
SATURDAY WITH SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES...AND SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY AT MPV/SLK. IN ADDITION...AS SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF-
SHORE...BREEZY NORTH WINDS WL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE ALIGNED NORTH TO SOUTH VALLEYS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KALY 301113
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
713 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS
BECAUSE CURRENT TEMPS WERE MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY...AS A SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF
WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS IN THE 6-8 KFT AGL RANGE LOWERING TO 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KPOU WHERE SOME MVFR MIST WILL LINGER FORMA FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL
14Z.  EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
START TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME SCT CUMULUS
AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND TONIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE TO
4-8 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 301042
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
442 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS
BECAUSE CURRENT TEMPS WERE MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY...AS A SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF
WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS IN THE 6-8 KFT AGL RANGE LOWERING TO 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KPOU WHERE VLIFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS FORMED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY YESTERDAY.  THE LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST
UNTIL 10-12Z...THEN SLOWLY RISE TO IFR VSBYS AND VFR CIGS BTWN 12Z-
14Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN THEREAFTER. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN START TO DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME SCT CUMULUS AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE TO
4-8 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...GJM/FRUGIS














000
FXUS61 KALY 301042
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
442 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS
BECAUSE CURRENT TEMPS WERE MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY...AS A SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF
WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS IN THE 6-8 KFT AGL RANGE LOWERING TO 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KPOU WHERE VLIFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS FORMED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY YESTERDAY.  THE LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST
UNTIL 10-12Z...THEN SLOWLY RISE TO IFR VSBYS AND VFR CIGS BTWN 12Z-
14Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN THEREAFTER. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN START TO DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME SCT CUMULUS AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE TO
4-8 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...GJM/FRUGIS














000
FXUS61 KBTV 301000
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
FRIDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTH
CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE UPDATED THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR THIS MORNING
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 450 AM EDT THURSDAY...MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SEE BREAKS IN THIS CLOUDY COVER ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO...SO COULD SEE SOME PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION LATER TODAY. CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES FAIRLY
MILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...SO WILL SEE SOME MILD
TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY...BUT NOT AS WARM AS YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT THURSDAY...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...AS WIND FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AS WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

ON FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY.
THUS...THIS TAKES THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS IS A CHANGE
FROM A FEW DAYS AGO WITH HAD THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR OVER OR
REGION. MODEL SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK...ESPECIALLY THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
ON SATURDAY...MODELS DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TAKE IT NORTHEAST WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL JUST HAVE LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY...WITH THE UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH HANDLING POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED DIGGING TROF AND
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRES ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. CONSENSUS SHOWS DEEP
FULL LATITUDE TROF ACRS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPING 50 TO 75 MILES EAST OF THE 40/70
BENCHMARK. THIS IS AN UNFAVORABLE TRACK FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECICP
ACRS OUR CWA...AS BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WL BE EAST OF OUR
CWA...HOWEVER BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME MID LVL RH AND BACKSIDE
VORT SLIDING ACRS OUR CWA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS WL SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACRS
OUR CWA. STILL LOOKING AT A LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE
MTNS BY SUNDAY MORNING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN -7C AND -9C BY
12Z SUNDAY...ON BRISK NORTH WINDS. EXPECTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S
MTNS TO M30S/L40S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDS...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NE
CONUS...AS TROF LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS WL RESULT IN
RISING HGHTS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS
ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA...BUT VERY DRY AIR ALOFT.
THINKING LOWS WL RANGE FROM NEAR 20F SLK/COLDER VALLEYS TO NEAR
30S ACRS THE CPV. IF WINDS ARE LIGHTER THAN PROGGED...TEMPS COULD
FALL INTO THE TEENS AT OUR COLDER LOCATIONS. LLVL WAA RESULTS IN
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 0C BY 00Z TUES AND BTWN 2-4C BY
00Z WEDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. HIGHS WL WARM INTO THE M/U 30S
MTNS TO M/U 40S VALLEYS ON MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT
SHARP INVERSION ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AS WARMING ALOFT OCCURS.
LOWS WL RANGE FROM M20S TO M30S ON MONDAY NIGHT...COLDEST TEMPS
WL BE ACRS THE NEK OF VT...WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE
SLV/DACKS. NEXT SYSTEM WL PRODUCE MORE CLOUDS ON TUESDAY WITH CHCS
FOR RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY BY LATE TUES INTO WEDS. TEMPS WITH
SOUTHWEST FLW WL WARM INTO THE U40S TO M50S FOR TUES/WEDS AND LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK S/W AND ASSOCIATED MID
LVL MOISTURE MOVING ACRS OUR TAF SITES ATTM...WITH SOME SPRINKLES
SHOWING UP ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. CRNT OBS SHOW VFR AT
MPV/RUT/PBG/BTV WITH MVFR CIGS AT SLK/MSS. SOUNDINGS INDICATING
MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT SLK AFT 08Z
TONIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL CAA...UPSLOPE FLW...AND SOME LAKE
MOISTURE INTERACTION. HAVE MENTION PREVAILING GROUP FOR IFR CIGS
AT SLK BTWN 0830 AND 12 UTC THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WL
DEVELOP AT MPV AND PERSIST THRU 12Z...WITH MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS...WL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
BY SUNRISE. WEAK HIGH PRES WITH DEVELOPING VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES CAN BE EXPECTED BY 16Z TODAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MOISTURE WL APPROACH OUR WESTERN TAF SITES BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH
SOME LIGHT VALLEY RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY
AFTN INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AT MSS/SLK. EXPECT PLENTY OF
CLOUDS ON SATURDAY WITH SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES...AND SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MPV/SLK. IN ADDITION...AS SFC LOW PRES
DEVELOPS OFF-SHORE...BREEZY NORTH WINDS WL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE ALIGNED NORTH TO SOUTH VALLEYS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 300850
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
450 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK ON
FRIDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT THURSDAY...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING AS WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. SEE BREAKS IN THIS CLOUDY COVER ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ONTARIO...SO COULD SEE SOME PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
LATER TODAY. CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES FAIRLY MILD ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT...SO WILL SEE SOME MILD TEMPERATURES AGAIN
TODAY...BUT NOT AS WARM AS YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 450 AM EDT THURSDAY...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...AS WIND FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AS WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

ON FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY.
THUS...THIS TAKES THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS IS A CHANGE
FROM A FEW DAYS AGO WITH HAD THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR OVER OR
REGION. MODEL SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK...ESPECIALLY THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
ON SATURDAY...MODELS DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TAKE IT NORTHEAST WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL JUST HAVE LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY...WITH THE UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH HANDLING POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED DIGGING TROF AND
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRES ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. CONSENSUS SHOWS DEEP
FULL LATITUDE TROF ACRS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPING 50 TO 75 MILES EAST OF THE 40/70
BENCHMARK. THIS IS AN UNFAVORABLE TRACK FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECICP
ACRS OUR CWA...AS BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WL BE EAST OF OUR
CWA...HOWEVER BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME MID LVL RH AND BACKSIDE
VORT SLIDING ACRS OUR CWA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS WL SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACRS
OUR CWA. STILL LOOKING AT A LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE
MTNS BY SUNDAY MORNING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN -7C AND -9C BY
12Z SUNDAY...ON BRISK NORTH WINDS. EXPECTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S
MTNS TO M30S/L40S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDS...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NE
CONUS...AS TROF LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS WL RESULT IN
RISING HGHTS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS
ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA...BUT VERY DRY AIR ALOFT.
THINKING LOWS WL RANGE FROM NEAR 20F SLK/COLDER VALLEYS TO NEAR
30S ACRS THE CPV. IF WINDS ARE LIGHTER THAN PROGGED...TEMPS COULD
FALL INTO THE TEENS AT OUR COLDER LOCATIONS. LLVL WAA RESULTS IN
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 0C BY 00Z TUES AND BTWN 2-4C BY
00Z WEDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. HIGHS WL WARM INTO THE M/U 30S
MTNS TO M/U 40S VALLEYS ON MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT
SHARP INVERSION ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AS WARMING ALOFT OCCURS.
LOWS WL RANGE FROM M20S TO M30S ON MONDAY NIGHT...COLDEST TEMPS
WL BE ACRS THE NEK OF VT...WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE
SLV/DACKS. NEXT SYSTEM WL PRODUCE MORE CLOUDS ON TUESDAY WITH CHCS
FOR RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY BY LATE TUES INTO WEDS. TEMPS WITH
SOUTHWEST FLW WL WARM INTO THE U40S TO M50S FOR TUES/WEDS AND LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK S/W AND ASSOCIATED MID
LVL MOISTURE MOVING ACRS OUR TAF SITES ATTM...WITH SOME SPRINKLES
SHOWING UP ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. CRNT OBS SHOW VFR AT
MPV/RUT/PBG/BTV WITH MVFR CIGS AT SLK/MSS. SOUNDINGS INDICATING
MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT SLK AFT 08Z
TONIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL CAA...UPSLOPE FLW...AND SOME LAKE
MOISTURE INTERACTION. HAVE MENTION PREVAILING GROUP FOR IFR CIGS
AT SLK BTWN 0830 AND 12 UTC THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WL
DEVELOP AT MPV AND PERSIST THRU 12Z...WITH MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS...WL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
BY SUNRISE. WEAK HIGH PRES WITH DEVELOPING VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES CAN BE EXPECTED BY 16Z TODAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MOISTURE WL APPROACH OUR WESTERN TAF SITES BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH
SOME LIGHT VALLEY RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY
AFTN INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AT MSS/SLK. EXPECT PLENTY OF
CLOUDS ON SATURDAY WITH SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES...AND SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MPV/SLK. IN ADDITION...AS SFC LOW PRES
DEVELOPS OFF-SHORE...BREEZY NORTH WINDS WL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE ALIGNED NORTH TO SOUTH VALLEYS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KALY 300841
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
442 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM...STLT PICS SHOW CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST AREAS.
THE CLOUD BAND OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP TODAY AND ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO
FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS THIS MORNING OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND
MOHAWK VALLEYS AND THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS TODAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MISS THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF...AND HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CHILLY START TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND..BUT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED IN THE
LONG TERM.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT WITH WPC.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IMPRESSIVE H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CYCLONE LOOKS TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR MINIMAL IMPACT IN TERMS OF PCPN...BUT IT WILL BE
COLD AND WINDY.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M20S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND U20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEYS.  BY SUNDAY...THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN THE OCEAN CYCLONE AND A SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TN VALLEY.  BRISK N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
AND H850 TEMPS OF -4C TO -8C WILL MAY IT FEEL LIKE WINTER! EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND U30S TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  MONDAY...TEMPS CREEP CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NOVEMBER READINGS BUT STILL WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL BY 5
DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO L50S...THOUGH A FEW
U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN DACKS.  A WARM FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MON NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE
30S.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A
MILDER AIR MASS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN...H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +12C.  EXPECT
HIGHS TEMPS TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS.  TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY...AS A SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF
WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS IN THE 6-8 KFT AGL RANGE LOWERING TO 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KPOU WHERE VLIFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS FORMED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY YESTERDAY.  THE LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST
UNTIL 10-12Z...THEN SLOWLY RISE TO IFR VSBYS AND VFR CIGS BTWN 12Z-
14Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN THEREAFTER. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN START TO DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME SCT CUMULUS AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE TO
4-8 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...GJM/FRUGIS











000
FXUS61 KBTV 300804
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
404 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT, BRINGING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER EVEN THOUGH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM WEST OF HERE ON FRIDAY
AND THEN TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THEN OFFSHORE THE EAST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE
FRIDAY WHICH CHANGES OVER TO A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY, NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, EXCEPT ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CHILLY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT THURSDAY...HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT
MIN TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. HAVE RAISED
MIN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
AS CLOUD COVER HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP. HAVE ALSO LOWERED
MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT AS SKIES HAVE
BRIEFLY CLEARED ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FORECASTED
LOW. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES IN THESE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.
CLOUD COVER STARTING TO MOVE INTO THESE AREAS AT THIS TIME...SO
NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF MUCH MORE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TOMORROW AS WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER STILL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A LOW-MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW THAT
SHOULD KEEP BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THUS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. BEST
CHANCES FOR MORE SUN WILL BE DOWN IN SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT WITH THE
AID OF DOWNSLOPING OFF THE GREENS. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPERATURES. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 1-3C RANGE, THE
MAXIMUM WE COULD SEE WOULD BE THE LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL PUT A
DAMPER ON THAT, AND SO THE GUIDANCE SHOWING 40S TO NEAR 50 SEEMED
GOOD. CAN`T RULE OUT A SPRINKLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO PUT INTO THE FORECAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT A LITTLE TRICKY ON THE CLOUDS AND HOW COLD IT COULD
GET. AGAIN, THINKING MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR AND THIS WILL ACT AS A
BLANKET. LEANED A LITTLE TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THAT.
HOWEVER IF WE DO GET SOME CLEARING, IT WILL BE CHILLIER THAN I`M
CURRENTLY PAINTING. GENERALLY HAVE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
REGION (SOME UPPER 30S CLOSE TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN).

FRIDAY THINGS WILL BE CHANGING. THE CLOSELY WATCHED UPPER TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFYING AS ENERGY CURRENTLY
UP OVER NORTHERN CANADA DIVES INTO THE TROUGH. MODEL TRENDS OF THE
PAST FEW DAYS SHOWING THAT THE UPPER TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW) WILL BE DIGGING MORE SOUTH THAN EAST. THUS, LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF ALL THE "EXCITEMENT". STILL
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THICKER CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND SOME
VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER, HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

HALLOWEEN EVENING AND TRICK OR TREATING TIME:
GUIDANCE ALL PRETTY SIMILAR IN SHOWING THAT ALTHOUGH SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO VERMONT BY LATE NIGHT, IT WILL ALL
BE ON THE VERY LIGHT SIDE. THE TRENDS OF HAVING THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE TAKE A TRACK FAAAAR SOUTH OF HERE MEAN THAT QPF WILL
GENERALLY BE 0.05" OR LESS. AS THE NIGHT GOES ON, THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO SLOWLY COOL SUCH THAT FREEZING LEVELS WILL
FALL AND BY LATE NIGHT IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT A FEW
SNOWFLAKES WILL BE SEEN INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. AGAIN, NOT A
LOT OF STUFF FALLING FROM THE SKY. PERHAPS A SLUSHY 1/2" AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000FT, ESPECIALLY IN THE `DACKS COME SATURDAY
MORNING. BOTTOM LINE, THE GHOULS AND GOBLINS SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET
OUT AND AROUND WITHOUT TOO MUCH NEED OF UMBRELLAS -- AT LEAST IT
LOOKS THAT WAY AT THIS POINT. WE`LL SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS
TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EDT THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH HANDLING POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED DIGGING TROF AND
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRES ON SAT INTO SUNDAY. CONSENSUS SHOWS DEEP
FULL LATITUDE TROF ACRS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPING 50 TO 75 MILES EAST OF THE 40/70
BENCHMARK. THIS IS AN UNFAVORABLE TRACK FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECICP
ACRS OUR CWA...AS BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WL BE EAST OF OUR
CWA...HOWEVER BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME MID LVL RH AND BACKSIDE
VORT SLIDING ACRS OUR CWA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS WL SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACRS
OUR CWA. STILL LOOKING AT A LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE
MTNS BY SUNDAY MORNING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN -7C AND -9C BY
12Z SUNDAY...ON BRISK NORTH WINDS. EXPECTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S
MTNS TO M30S/L40S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDS...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NE
CONUS...AS TROF LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS WL RESULT IN
RISING HGHTS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS
ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA...BUT VERY DRY AIR ALOFT.
THINKING LOWS WL RANGE FROM NEAR 20F SLK/COLDER VALLEYS TO NEAR
30S ACRS THE CPV. IF WINDS ARE LIGHTER THAN PROGGED...TEMPS COULD
FALL INTO THE TEENS AT OUR COLDER LOCATIONS. LLVL WAA RESULTS IN
PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 0C BY 00Z TUES AND BTWN 2-4C BY
00Z WEDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. HIGHS WL WARM INTO THE M/U 30S
MTNS TO M/U 40S VALLEYS ON MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT
SHARP INVERSION ON MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AS WARMING ALOFT OCCURS.
LOWS WL RANGE FROM M20S TO M30S ON MONDAY NIGHT...COLDEST TEMPS
WL BE ACRS THE NEK OF VT...WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE
SLV/DACKS. NEXT SYSTEM WL PRODUCE MORE CLOUDS ON TUESDAY WITH CHCS
FOR RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY BY LATE TUES INTO WEDS. TEMPS WITH
SOUTHWEST FLW WL WARM INTO THE U40S TO M50S FOR TUES/WEDS AND LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK S/W AND ASSOCIATED MID
LVL MOISTURE MOVING ACRS OUR TAF SITES ATTM...WITH SOME SPRINKLES
SHOWING UP ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. CRNT OBS SHOW VFR AT
MPV/RUT/PBG/BTV WITH MVFR CIGS AT SLK/MSS. SOUNDINGS INDICATING
MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT SLK AFT 08Z
TONIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL CAA...UPSLOPE FLW...AND SOME LAKE
MOISTURE INTERACTION. HAVE MENTION PREVAILING GROUP FOR IFR CIGS
AT SLK BTWN 0830 AND 12 UTC THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WL
DEVELOP AT MPV AND PERSIST THRU 12Z...WITH MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS...WL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
BY SUNRISE. WEAK HIGH PRES WITH DEVELOPING VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES CAN BE EXPECTED BY 16Z TODAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MOISTURE WL APPROACH OUR WESTERN TAF SITES BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH
SOME LIGHT VALLEY RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY
AFTN INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AT MSS/SLK. EXPECT PLENTY OF
CLOUDS ON SATURDAY WITH SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES...AND SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MPV/SLK. IN ADDITION...AS SFC LOW PRES
DEVELOPS OFF-SHORE...BREEZY NORTH WINDS WL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE ALIGNED NORTH TO SOUTH VALLEYS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KALY 300559
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
159 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SEASONABLE
WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE EVEN COLDER
AIR ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM...HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY
TEMP GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.
CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS WHERE A FEW LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PICKING UP SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE.
OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY.

TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO
BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH 40S
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH THE NW FLOW IN PLACE...SOME CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH MANY AREAS TURNING OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWER OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY DUE
TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EARLY IN THE DAY...OTHERWISE
IT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
30S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN FOR
FRIDAY...AS A SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.

THE BEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...ESP LATE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SNOW
WILL BE ABOVE 2000 FEET. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT...JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT MOST...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM AND AN OCEAN STORM WILL BE IN FOCUS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTING
FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN THESE EVENTS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF DELMARVA. THE LACK OF PHASING OF
THE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE PCPN EAST OF THE FA. ALTHOUGH
SOME MINOR PCPN ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH JUST
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...LACK OF QPF LIKELY TO PRODUCE ONLY
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE BLUSTERY DAY WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE FA AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE
COASTAL SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE PCPN MAY JUST BRUSH THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE
MILDER AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FA OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY...AS A SFC TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF
WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS IN THE 6-8 KFT AGL RANGE LOWERING TO 4-6
KFT BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KPOU WHERE VLIFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS FORMED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY YESTERDAY.  THE LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST
UNTIL 10-12Z...THEN SLOWLY RISE TO IFR VSBYS AND VFR CIGS BTWN 12Z-
14Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN THEREAFTER. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN START TO DISSIPATE EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME SCT CUMULUS AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS AROUND.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE TO
4-8 KTS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE MOVING EASTWARD
AND OUT OF THE AREA SOON. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALLOWS FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND
BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ABOUT TWO TENTHS OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 300545
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
145 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT, BRINGING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER EVEN THOUGH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM WEST OF HERE ON FRIDAY
AND THEN TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THEN OFFSHORE THE EAST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE
FRIDAY WHICH CHANGES OVER TO A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY, NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, EXCEPT ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CHILLY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT THURSDAY...HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT
MIN TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. HAVE RAISED
MIN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
AS CLOUD COVER HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP. HAVE ALSO LOWERED
MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT AS SKIES HAVE
BRIEFLY CLEARED ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FORECASTED
LOW. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES IN THESE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.
CLOUD COVER STARTING TO MOVE INTO THESE AREAS AT THIS TIME...SO
NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF MUCH MORE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TOMORROW AS WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER STILL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A LOW-MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW THAT
SHOULD KEEP BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THUS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. BEST
CHANCES FOR MORE SUN WILL BE DOWN IN SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT WITH THE
AID OF DOWNSLOPING OFF THE GREENS. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPERATURES. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 1-3C RANGE, THE
MAXIMUM WE COULD SEE WOULD BE THE LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL PUT A
DAMPER ON THAT, AND SO THE GUIDANCE SHOWING 40S TO NEAR 50 SEEMED
GOOD. CAN`T RULE OUT A SPRINKLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO PUT INTO THE FORECAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT A LITTLE TRICKY ON THE CLOUDS AND HOW COLD IT COULD
GET. AGAIN, THINKING MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR AND THIS WILL ACT AS A
BLANKET. LEANED A LITTLE TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THAT.
HOWEVER IF WE DO GET SOME CLEARING, IT WILL BE CHILLIER THAN I`M
CURRENTLY PAINTING. GENERALLY HAVE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
REGION (SOME UPPER 30S CLOSE TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN).

FRIDAY THINGS WILL BE CHANGING. THE CLOSELY WATCHED UPPER TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFYING AS ENERGY CURRENTLY
UP OVER NORTHERN CANADA DIVES INTO THE TROUGH. MODEL TRENDS OF THE
PAST FEW DAYS SHOWING THAT THE UPPER TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW) WILL BE DIGGING MORE SOUTH THAN EAST. THUS, LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF ALL THE "EXCITEMENT". STILL
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THICKER CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND SOME
VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER, HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

HALLOWEEN EVENING AND TRICK OR TREATING TIME:
GUIDANCE ALL PRETTY SIMILAR IN SHOWING THAT ALTHOUGH SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO VERMONT BY LATE NIGHT, IT WILL ALL
BE ON THE VERY LIGHT SIDE. THE TRENDS OF HAVING THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE TAKE A TRACK FAAAAR SOUTH OF HERE MEAN THAT QPF WILL
GENERALLY BE 0.05" OR LESS. AS THE NIGHT GOES ON, THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO SLOWLY COOL SUCH THAT FREEZING LEVELS WILL
FALL AND BY LATE NIGHT IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT A FEW
SNOWFLAKES WILL BE SEEN INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. AGAIN, NOT A
LOT OF STUFF FALLING FROM THE SKY. PERHAPS A SLUSHY 1/2" AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000FT, ESPECIALLY IN THE `DACKS COME SATURDAY
MORNING. BOTTOM LINE, THE GHOULS AND GOBLINS SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET
OUT AND AROUND WITHOUT TOO MUCH NEED OF UMBRELLAS -- AT LEAST IT
LOOKS THAT WAY AT THIS POINT. WE`LL SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS
TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED SAT AND SUN AS A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK, THEN NORTH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. STILL COOL MONDAY BUT
DRY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A WARM THEN COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

CONFIDENCE INCREASING AS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
AD CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP UPPER TROF WHICH CLOSES
OFF. ALSO FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SAT INTO SUNDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS OF HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW THE PRECIPITATION
WILL EXTEND AS THE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY OVER THE WARM WATERS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND CONVECTION DEVELOPS. THIS IS WHEN THE
MODELS USUALLY HAVE THEIR PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY WITH HOW FAR WEST
THE LOW WILL BE AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS THROWN BACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND ESPECIALLY LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

FOR NOW CONTINUING THE IDEA THAT THE OUR AREA WILL ONLY GET LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MOST AREAS COLD ENOUGH TO
SEE A SOME FLAKES ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE MOSTLY
SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. IF THE LOW
TRACKS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST, PERHAPS EASTERN VT MAY GET IN ON
SOME LIGHT BUT STEADIER PRECIPITATION.

WE ARE EXPECTING NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AND BE GUSTY
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROF SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE NE CONUS WITH TEMPS
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUES CONTINUING INTO WED AS A WARM
THEN COLD FRONTS TRAVERSE THE AREA WITH WITH MAINLY A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT AND MONDAY,
30S SUNDAY BUT RECOVERING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S TUES/WED.
LOWS GENERALLY 25 TO 35 BUT WARMING INTO THE 30S BY TUES/WED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK S/W AND ASSOCIATED MID
LVL MOISTURE MOVING ACRS OUR TAF SITES ATTM...WITH SOME SPRINKLES
SHOWING UP ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. CRNT OBS SHOW VFR AT
MPV/RUT/PBG/BTV WITH MVFR CIGS AT SLK/MSS. SOUNDINGS INDICATING
MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT SLK AFT 08Z
TONIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL CAA...UPSLOPE FLW...AND SOME LAKE
MOISTURE INTERACTION. HAVE MENTION PREVAILING GROUP FOR IFR CIGS
AT SLK BTWN 0830 AND 12 UTC THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WL
DEVELOP AT MPV AND PERSIST THRU 12Z...WITH MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS...WL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
BY SUNRISE. WEAK HIGH PRES WITH DEVELOPING VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES CAN BE EXPECTED BY 16Z TODAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MOISTURE WL APPROACH OUR WESTERN TAF SITES BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH
SOME LIGHT VALLEY RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY
AFTN INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AT MSS/SLK. EXPECT PLENTY OF
CLOUDS ON SATURDAY WITH SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES...AND SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MPV/SLK. IN ADDITION...AS SFC LOW PRES
DEVELOPS OFF-SHORE...BREEZY NORTH WINDS WL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE ALIGNED NORTH TO SOUTH VALLEYS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 300539
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
139 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT, BRINGING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER EVEN THOUGH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM WEST OF HERE ON FRIDAY
AND THEN TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THEN OFFSHORE THE EAST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE
FRIDAY WHICH CHANGES OVER TO A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY, NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, EXCEPT ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CHILLY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1013 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...RAINFALL IS EXITING EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE WITH SOME TEMPORARY CLEARING BEHIND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP FOR A FEW HOURS BUT
MORE OF A SOLID CLOUD DECK ENTERING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL PUT
A BLANKET TO FALLING TEMPERATURES. COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS
BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TOMORROW AS WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER STILL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A LOW-MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW THAT
SHOULD KEEP BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THUS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. BEST
CHANCES FOR MORE SUN WILL BE DOWN IN SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT WITH THE
AID OF DOWNSLOPING OFF THE GREENS. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPERATURES. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 1-3C RANGE, THE
MAXIMUM WE COULD SEE WOULD BE THE LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL PUT A
DAMPER ON THAT, AND SO THE GUIDANCE SHOWING 40S TO NEAR 50 SEEMED
GOOD. CAN`T RULE OUT A SPRINKLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO PUT INTO THE FORECAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT A LITTLE TRICKY ON THE CLOUDS AND HOW COLD IT COULD
GET. AGAIN, THINKING MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR AND THIS WILL ACT AS A
BLANKET. LEANED A LITTLE TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THAT.
HOWEVER IF WE DO GET SOME CLEARING, IT WILL BE CHILLIER THAN I`M
CURRENTLY PAINTING. GENERALLY HAVE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
REGION (SOME UPPER 30S CLOSE TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN).

FRIDAY THINGS WILL BE CHANGING. THE CLOSELY WATCHED UPPER TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFYING AS ENERGY CURRENTLY
UP OVER NORTHERN CANADA DIVES INTO THE TROUGH. MODEL TRENDS OF THE
PAST FEW DAYS SHOWING THAT THE UPPER TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW) WILL BE DIGGING MORE SOUTH THAN EAST. THUS, LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF ALL THE "EXCITEMENT". STILL
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THICKER CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND SOME
VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER, HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

HALLOWEEN EVENING AND TRICK OR TREATING TIME:
GUIDANCE ALL PRETTY SIMILAR IN SHOWING THAT ALTHOUGH SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO VERMONT BY LATE NIGHT, IT WILL ALL
BE ON THE VERY LIGHT SIDE. THE TRENDS OF HAVING THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE TAKE A TRACK FAAAAR SOUTH OF HERE MEAN THAT QPF WILL
GENERALLY BE 0.05" OR LESS. AS THE NIGHT GOES ON, THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO SLOWLY COOL SUCH THAT FREEZING LEVELS WILL
FALL AND BY LATE NIGHT IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT A FEW
SNOWFLAKES WILL BE SEEN INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. AGAIN, NOT A
LOT OF STUFF FALLING FROM THE SKY. PERHAPS A SLUSHY 1/2" AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000FT, ESPECIALLY IN THE `DACKS COME SATURDAY
MORNING. BOTTOM LINE, THE GHOULS AND GOBLINS SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET
OUT AND AROUND WITHOUT TOO MUCH NEED OF UMBRELLAS -- AT LEAST IT
LOOKS THAT WAY AT THIS POINT. WE`LL SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS
TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED SAT AND SUN AS A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK, THEN NORTH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. STILL COOL MONDAY BUT
DRY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A WARM THEN COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

CONFIDENCE INCREASING AS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
AD CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP UPPER TROF WHICH CLOSES
OFF. ALSO FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SAT INTO SUNDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS OF HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW THE PRECIPITATION
WILL EXTEND AS THE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY OVER THE WARM WATERS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND CONVECTION DEVELOPS. THIS IS WHEN THE
MODELS USUALLY HAVE THEIR PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY WITH HOW FAR WEST
THE LOW WILL BE AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS THROWN BACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND ESPECIALLY LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

FOR NOW CONTINUING THE IDEA THAT THE OUR AREA WILL ONLY GET LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MOST AREAS COLD ENOUGH TO
SEE A SOME FLAKES ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE MOSTLY
SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. IF THE LOW
TRACKS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST, PERHAPS EASTERN VT MAY GET IN ON
SOME LIGHT BUT STEADIER PRECIPITATION.

WE ARE EXPECTING NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AND BE GUSTY
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROF SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE NE CONUS WITH TEMPS
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUES CONTINUING INTO WED AS A WARM
THEN COLD FRONTS TRAVERSE THE AREA WITH WITH MAINLY A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT AND MONDAY,
30S SUNDAY BUT RECOVERING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S TUES/WED.
LOWS GENERALLY 25 TO 35 BUT WARMING INTO THE 30S BY TUES/WED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK S/W AND ASSOCIATED MID
LVL MOISTURE MOVING ACRS OUR TAF SITES ATTM...WITH SOME SPRINKLES
SHOWING UP ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. CRNT OBS SHOW VFR AT
MPV/RUT/PBG/BTV WITH MVFR CIGS AT SLK/MSS. SOUNDINGS INDICATING
MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT SLK AFT 08Z
TONIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL CAA...UPSLOPE FLW...AND SOME LAKE
MOISTURE INTERACTION. HAVE MENTION PREVAILING GROUP FOR IFR CIGS
AT SLK BTWN 0830 AND 12 UTC THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WL
DEVELOP AT MPV AND PERSIST THRU 12Z...WITH MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS...WL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
BY SUNRISE. WEAK HIGH PRES WITH DEVELOPING VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES CAN BE EXPECTED BY 16Z TODAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MOISTURE WL APPROACH OUR WESTERN TAF SITES BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH
SOME LIGHT VALLEY RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY
AFTN INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AT MSS/SLK. EXPECT PLENTY OF
CLOUDS ON SATURDAY WITH SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES...AND SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MPV/SLK. IN ADDITION...AS SFC LOW PRES
DEVELOPS OFF-SHORE...BREEZY NORTH WINDS WL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE ALIGNED NORTH TO SOUTH VALLEYS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...SLW
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KALY 300534
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
134 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SEASONABLE
WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE EVEN COLDER
AIR ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM...HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY
TEMP GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.
CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS WHERE A FEW LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PICKING UP SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE.
OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY.

TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO
BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH 40S
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH THE NW FLOW IN PLACE...SOME CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH MANY AREAS TURNING OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWER OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY DUE
TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EARLY IN THE DAY...OTHERWISE
IT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
30S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN FOR
FRIDAY...AS A SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.

THE BEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...ESP LATE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SNOW
WILL BE ABOVE 2000 FEET. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT...JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT MOST...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM AND AN OCEAN STORM WILL BE IN FOCUS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTING
FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN THESE EVENTS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF DELMARVA. THE LACK OF PHASING OF
THE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE PCPN EAST OF THE FA. ALTHOUGH
SOME MINOR PCPN ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH JUST
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...LACK OF QPF LIKELY TO PRODUCE ONLY
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE BLUSTERY DAY WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE FA AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE
COASTAL SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE PCPN MAY JUST BRUSH THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE
MILDER AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FA OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE
THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TAF
SITES AROUND 3-5 KFT THROUGH 15Z-20Z AFT WHICH SKIES WILL BECOME
SCT035. THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE FIRST AT KPOU AND LAST AT KPSF.
WINDS WILL BE WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING
TO 5-10 KNOTS THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE MOVING EASTWARD
AND OUT OF THE AREA SOON. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALLOWS FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND
BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ABOUT TWO TENTHS OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...GJM/FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL/11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS











000
FXUS61 KBTV 300216
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1016 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT, BRINGING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER EVEN THOUGH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM WEST OF HERE ON FRIDAY
AND THEN TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THEN OFFSHORE THE EAST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE
FRIDAY WHICH CHANGES OVER TO A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY, NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, EXCEPT ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CHILLY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1013 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...RAINFALL IS EXITING EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE WITH SOME TEMPORARY CLEARING BEHIND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP FOR A FEW HOURS BUT
MORE OF A SOLID CLOUD DECK ENTERING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL PUT
A BLANKET TO FALLING TEMPERATURES. COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS
BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TOMORROW AS WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER STILL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A LOW-MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW THAT
SHOULD KEEP BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THUS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. BEST
CHANCES FOR MORE SUN WILL BE DOWN IN SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT WITH THE
AID OF DOWNSLOPING OFF THE GREENS. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPERATURES. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 1-3C RANGE, THE
MAXIMUM WE COULD SEE WOULD BE THE LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL PUT A
DAMPER ON THAT, AND SO THE GUIDANCE SHOWING 40S TO NEAR 50 SEEMED
GOOD. CAN`T RULE OUT A SPRINKLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO PUT INTO THE FORECAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT A LITTLE TRICKY ON THE CLOUDS AND HOW COLD IT COULD
GET. AGAIN, THINKING MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR AND THIS WILL ACT AS A
BLANKET. LEANED A LITTLE TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THAT.
HOWEVER IF WE DO GET SOME CLEARING, IT WILL BE CHILLIER THAN I`M
CURRENTLY PAINTING. GENERALLY HAVE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
REGION (SOME UPPER 30S CLOSE TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN).

FRIDAY THINGS WILL BE CHANGING. THE CLOSELY WATCHED UPPER TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFYING AS ENERGY CURRENTLY
UP OVER NORTHERN CANADA DIVES INTO THE TROUGH. MODEL TRENDS OF THE
PAST FEW DAYS SHOWING THAT THE UPPER TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW) WILL BE DIGGING MORE SOUTH THAN EAST. THUS, LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF ALL THE "EXCITEMENT". STILL
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THICKER CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND SOME
VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER, HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

HALLOWEEN EVENING AND TRICK OR TREATING TIME:
GUIDANCE ALL PRETTY SIMILAR IN SHOWING THAT ALTHOUGH SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO VERMONT BY LATE NIGHT, IT WILL ALL
BE ON THE VERY LIGHT SIDE. THE TRENDS OF HAVING THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE TAKE A TRACK FAAAAR SOUTH OF HERE MEAN THAT QPF WILL
GENERALLY BE 0.05" OR LESS. AS THE NIGHT GOES ON, THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO SLOWLY COOL SUCH THAT FREEZING LEVELS WILL
FALL AND BY LATE NIGHT IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT A FEW
SNOWFLAKES WILL BE SEEN INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. AGAIN, NOT A
LOT OF STUFF FALLING FROM THE SKY. PERHAPS A SLUSHY 1/2" AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000FT, ESPECIALLY IN THE `DACKS COME SATURDAY
MORNING. BOTTOM LINE, THE GHOULS AND GOBLINS SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET
OUT AND AROUND WITHOUT TOO MUCH NEED OF UMBRELLAS -- AT LEAST IT
LOOKS THAT WAY AT THIS POINT. WE`LL SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS
TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED SAT AND SUN AS A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK, THEN NORTH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. STILL COOL MONDAY BUT
DRY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A WARM THEN COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

CONFIDENCE INCREASING AS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
AD CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP UPPER TROF WHICH CLOSES
OFF. ALSO FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SAT INTO SUNDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS OF HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW THE PRECIPITATION
WILL EXTEND AS THE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY OVER THE WARM WATERS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND CONVECTION DEVELOPS. THIS IS WHEN THE
MODELS USUALLY HAVE THEIR PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY WITH HOW FAR WEST
THE LOW WILL BE AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS THROWN BACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND ESPECIALLY LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

FOR NOW CONTINUING THE IDEA THAT THE OUR AREA WILL ONLY GET LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MOST AREAS COLD ENOUGH TO
SEE A SOME FLAKES ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE MOSTLY
SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. IF THE LOW
TRACKS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST, PERHAPS EASTERN VT MAY GET IN ON
SOME LIGHT BUT STEADIER PRECIPITATION.

WE ARE EXPECTING NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AND BE GUSTY
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROF SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE NE CONUS WITH TEMPS
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUES CONTINUING INTO WED AS A WARM
THEN COLD FRONTS TRAVERSE THE AREA WITH WITH MAINLY A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT AND MONDAY,
30S SUNDAY BUT RECOVERING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S TUES/WED.
LOWS GENERALLY 25 TO 35 BUT WARMING INTO THE 30S BY TUES/WED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA AND BETWEEN 02Z AND 12Z THERE MIGHT BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. IN
ADDITION...CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT THIS TIME
BEFORE BECOMING VFR AGAIN AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...BUT THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 08Z
AND 12Z...BUT SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH STRATOCUMULUS
AND LIGHT NW FLOW. FRI CLOUDS WL INCREASE AND LOWER BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. PERIODS OF -SHRA WITH MTN -SHSN FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
MVFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS AND POTENTIAL IFR VIS/CIGS AT MPV/SLK.
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY MVFR ON
MONDAY UNDER NW FLOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...SLW
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SISSON




000
FXUS61 KALY 300125
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
925 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY START TO
CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS A COOLER AIR MASS WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE TOMORROW INTO
FRIDAY...BEFORE EVEN COLDER AIR ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 923 PM EDT...THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS PROGRESSING
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK...AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS WHERE A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PICKING UP SOME
MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE. OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE DRY.

TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO
BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH 40S
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH THE NW FLOW IN PLACE...SOME CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH MANY AREAS TURNING OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWER OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY DUE
TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EARLY IN THE DAY...OTHERWISE
IT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
30S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN FOR
FRIDAY...AS A SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.

THE BEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...ESP LATE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SNOW
WILL BE ABOVE 2000 FEET. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT...JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT MOST...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM AND AN OCEAN STORM WILL BE IN FOCUS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTING
FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN THESE EVENTS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF DELMARVA. THE LACK OF PHASING OF
THE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE PCPN EAST OF THE FA. ALTHOUGH
SOME MINOR PCPN ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH JUST
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...LACK OF QPF LIKELY TO PRODUCE ONLY
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE BLUSTERY DAY WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE FA AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE
COASTAL SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE PCPN MAY JUST BRUSH THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE
MILDER AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FA OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE
THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TAF
SITES AROUND 3-5 KFT THROUGH 15Z-20Z AFT WHICH SKIES WILL BECOME SCT035.
THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE FIRST AT KPOU AND LAST AT KPSF.
WINDS WILL BE WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT
INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE MOVING EASTWARD
AND OUT OF THE AREA SOON. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALLOWS FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND
BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ABOUT TWO TENTHS OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL/11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 292308
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
708 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY START TO
CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS A COOLER AIR MASS WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE TOMORROW INTO
FRIDAY...BEFORE EVEN COLDER AIR ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 625 PM EDT..A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS SITUATED EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT TOOK ON ANAFRONT
CHARACTERISTICS...AS A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STILL REMAINS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL END. ANY
ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS PROGRESSING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK...AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PICKING UP SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE DRY.

TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO
BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH 40S
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH THE NW FLOW IN PLACE...SOME CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH MANY AREAS TURNING OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWER OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY DUE
TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EARLY IN THE DAY...OTHERWISE
IT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
30S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN FOR
FRIDAY...AS A SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.

THE BEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...ESP LATE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SNOW
WILL BE ABOVE 2000 FEET. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT...JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT MOST...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM AND AN OCEAN STORM WILL BE IN FOCUS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTING
FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN THESE EVENTS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF DELMARVA. THE LACK OF PHASING OF
THE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE PCPN EAST OF THE FA. ALTHOUGH
SOME MINOR PCPN ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH JUST
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...LACK OF QPF LIKELY TO PRODUCE ONLY
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE BLUSTERY DAY WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE FA AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE
COASTAL SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE PCPN MAY JUST BRUSH THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE
MILDER AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FA OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE
THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TAF
SITES AROUND 3-5 KFT THROUGH 15Z-20Z AFT WHICH SKIES WILL BECOME SCT035.
THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE FIRST AT KPOU AND LAST AT KPSF.
WINDS WILL BE WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT
INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE MOVING EASTWARD
AND OUT OF THE AREA SOON. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALLOWS FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND
BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ABOUT TWO TENTHS OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL/11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 292259
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
659 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT, BRINGING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER EVEN THOUGH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM WEST OF HERE ON FRIDAY
AND THEN TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THEN OFFSHORE THE EAST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE
FRIDAY WHICH CHANGES OVER TO A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY, NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, EXCEPT ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CHILLY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 650 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...RADAR TREND CONTINUE WITH RAINFALL
EAST OF CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. THERE WERE/ARE A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NY BUT SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS SOLID DECK MOVING INTO WESTERN NY AND
PROGRESSING. BASICALLY...NO CHANGES TO ON-GOING FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 330PM FOLLOWS: MID AFTERNOON UPDATE
STILL GOING ON TRACK. JUST MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS SHOWING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
STILL FALLING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN VERMONT AS THE FRONT EVER SO
SLOWLY PUSHES EAST. THE FRONT IS BEST SEEN BY A DEW POINT DROP
(UPPER 40S/LOW 50S TO THE UPPER 30S) ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO
SOUTHWEST AND WEST.

ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS, SHADED TOWARD THE
WARMER GUIDANCE BASED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW
TO CLEAR, SO LOOK FOR LOTS OF 30S WITH A FEW LOWER 40S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 130PM FOLLOWS:

THE FORECAST STILL CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK. THE SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT ARE CONTINUING TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IT WILL END UP SLOWING DOWN EVEN
FURTHER AND HANGING AROUND TILL EARLY THIS EVENING. SO THE ONLY
REAL CHANGE TO THE POPS WAS TO CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION ALONG BUT
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL AROUND 7PM. THE
ONLY OTHER ADDITION TO THE POP FORECAST WAS TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AS THE WINDS
CONTINUE TO SHIFT AROUND THE END RESULT WILL BE PARALLEL FLOW TO
THE GREAT LAKES WHICH COULD END UP IN SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THAT ISN`T
VERY STRONG BUT THE SIGNAL DOES SHOW UP IN THE HRRR AND SOME LOCAL
HI-RES MODELS.

THE NEXT CONCERN WAS WHETHER WE WOULD END UP CLEARING OUT BUT AS
THE MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
THE FLOW WILL END UP SHIFTING ENOUGH FROM THE WEST TO THE
SOUTHWEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GREAT
LAKES RESULTING IN CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

I MADE SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECAUSE AT
THE THIS POINT WITH THE CLOUD COVER SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WERE INDICATING SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION HAD ALREADY BEGUN AND
BOTH MT MANSFIELD AND WHITEFACE MT ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 30S
LOW 40S RIGHT NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TOMORROW AS WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER STILL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A LOW-MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW THAT
SHOULD KEEP BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THUS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. BEST
CHANCES FOR MORE SUN WILL BE DOWN IN SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT WITH THE
AID OF DOWNSLOPING OFF THE GREENS. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPERATURES. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 1-3C RANGE, THE
MAXIMUM WE COULD SEE WOULD BE THE LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL PUT A
DAMPER ON THAT, AND SO THE GUIDANCE SHOWING 40S TO NEAR 50 SEEMED
GOOD. CAN`T RULE OUT A SPRINKLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO PUT INTO THE FORECAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT A LITTLE TRICKY ON THE CLOUDS AND HOW COLD IT COULD
GET. AGAIN, THINKING MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR AND THIS WILL ACT AS A
BLANKET. LEANED A LITTLE TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THAT.
HOWEVER IF WE DO GET SOME CLEARING, IT WILL BE CHILLIER THAN I`M
CURRENTLY PAINTING. GENERALLY HAVE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
REGION (SOME UPPER 30S CLOSE TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN).

FRIDAY THINGS WILL BE CHANGING. THE CLOSELY WATCHED UPPER TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFYING AS ENERGY CURRENTLY
UP OVER NORTHERN CANADA DIVES INTO THE TROUGH. MODEL TRENDS OF THE
PAST FEW DAYS SHOWING THAT THE UPPER TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW) WILL BE DIGGING MORE SOUTH THAN EAST. THUS, LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF ALL THE "EXCITEMENT". STILL
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THICKER CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND SOME
VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER, HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

HALLOWEEN EVENING AND TRICK OR TREATING TIME:
GUIDANCE ALL PRETTY SIMILAR IN SHOWING THAT ALTHOUGH SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO VERMONT BY LATE NIGHT, IT WILL ALL
BE ON THE VERY LIGHT SIDE. THE TRENDS OF HAVING THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE TAKE A TRACK FAAAAR SOUTH OF HERE MEAN THAT QPF WILL
GENERALLY BE 0.05" OR LESS. AS THE NIGHT GOES ON, THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO SLOWLY COOL SUCH THAT FREEZING LEVELS WILL
FALL AND BY LATE NIGHT IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT A FEW
SNOWFLAKES WILL BE SEEN INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. AGAIN, NOT A
LOT OF STUFF FALLING FROM THE SKY. PERHAPS A SLUSHY 1/2" AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000FT, ESPECIALLY IN THE `DACKS COME SATURDAY
MORNING. BOTTOM LINE, THE GHOULS AND GOBLINS SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET
OUT AND AROUND WITHOUT TOO MUCH NEED OF UMBRELLAS -- AT LEAST IT
LOOKS THAT WAY AT THIS POINT. WE`LL SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS
TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED SAT AND SUN AS A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK, THEN NORTH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. STILL COOL MONDAY BUT
DRY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A WARM THEN COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

CONFIDENCE INCREASING AS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
AD CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP UPPER TROF WHICH CLOSES
OFF. ALSO FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SAT INTO SUNDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS OF HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW THE PRECIPITATION
WILL EXTEND AS THE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY OVER THE WARM WATERS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND CONVECTION DEVELOPS. THIS IS WHEN THE
MODELS USUALLY HAVE THEIR PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY WITH HOW FAR WEST
THE LOW WILL BE AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS THROWN BACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND ESPECIALLY LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

FOR NOW CONTINUING THE IDEA THAT THE OUR AREA WILL ONLY GET LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MOST AREAS COLD ENOUGH TO
SEE A SOME FLAKES ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE MOSTLY
SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. IF THE LOW
TRACKS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST, PERHAPS EASTERN VT MAY GET IN ON
SOME LIGHT BUT STEADIER PRECIPITATION.

WE ARE EXPECTING NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AND BE GUSTY
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROF SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE NE CONUS WITH TEMPS
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUES CONTINUING INTO WED AS A WARM
THEN COLD FRONTS TRAVERSE THE AREA WITH WITH MAINLY A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT AND MONDAY,
30S SUNDAY BUT RECOVERING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S TUES/WED.
LOWS GENERALLY 25 TO 35 BUT WARMING INTO THE 30S BY TUES/WED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA AND BETWEEN 02Z AND 12Z THERE MIGHT BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. IN
ADDITION...CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT THIS TIME
BEFORE BECOMING VFR AGAIN AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...BUT THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 08Z
AND 12Z...BUT SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH STRATOCUMULUS
AND LIGHT NW FLOW. FRI CLOUDS WL INCREASE AND LOWER BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. PERIODS OF -SHRA WITH MTN -SHSN FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
MVFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS AND POTENTIAL IFR VIS/CIGS AT MPV/SLK.
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY MVFR ON
MONDAY UNDER NW FLOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH/SLW
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 292253
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
653 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT, BRINGING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER EVEN THOUGH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM WEST OF HERE ON FRIDAY
AND THEN TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THEN OFFSHORE THE EAST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE
FRIDAY WHICH CHANGES OVER TO A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY, NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, EXCEPT ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CHILLY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 650 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...RADAR TREND CONTINUE WITH RAINFALL
EAST OF CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. THERE WERE/ARE A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NY BUT SATELLITE
IMGERY ALREADY SHOWS SOLID DECK MOVING INTO WESTERN NY AND
PROGRESSING. BASICALLY...NO CHANGES TO ON-GOING FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 330PM FOLLOWS: MID AFTERNOON UPDATE
STILL GOING ON TRACK. JUST MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS SHOWING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
STILL FALLING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN VERMONT AS THE FRONT EVER SO
SLOWLY PUSHES EAST. THE FRONT IS BEST SEEN BY A DEWPOINT DROP
(UPPER 40S/LOW 50S TO THE UPPER 30S) ALONG WITH A WINDSHIFT TO
SOUTHWEST AND WEST.

ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS, SHADED TOWARD THE
WARMER GUIDANCE BASED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW
TO CLEAR, SO LOOK FOR LOTS OF 30S WITH A FEW LOWER 40S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 130PM FOLLOWS:

THE FORECAST STILL CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK. THE SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT ARE CONTINUING TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IT WILL END UP SLOWING DOWN EVEN
FURTHER AND HANGING AROUND TILL EARLY THIS EVENING. SO THE ONLY
REAL CHANGE TO THE POPS WAS TO CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION ALONG BUT
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL AROUND 7PM. THE
ONLY OTHER ADDITION TO THE POP FORECAST WAS TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AS THE WINDS
CONTINUE TO SHIFT AROUND THE END RESULT WILL BE PARALLEL FLOW TO
THE GREAT LAKES WHICH COULD END UP IN SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THAT ISN`T
VERY STRONG BUT THE SIGNAL DOES SHOW UP IN THE HRRR AND SOME LOCAL
HI-RES MODELS.

THE NEXT CONCERN WAS WHETHER WE WOULD END UP CLEARING OUT BUT AS
THE MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
THE FLOW WILL END UP SHIFTING ENOUGH FROM THE WEST TO THE
SOUTHWEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GREAT
LAKES RESULTING IN CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

I MADE SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECAUSE AT
THE THIS POINT WITH THE CLOUD COVER SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WERE INDICATING SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION HAD ALREADY BEGUN AND
BOTH MT MANSFIELD AND WHITEFACE MT ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 30S
LOW 40S RIGHT NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TOMORROW AS WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER STILL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A LOW-MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW THAT
SHOULD KEEP BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THUS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. BEST
CHANCES FOR MORE SUN WILL BE DOWN IN SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT WITH THE
AID OF DOWNSLOPING OFF THE GREENS. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPERATURES. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 1-3C RANGE, THE
MAXIMUM WE COULD SEE WOULD BE THE LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL PUT A
DAMPER ON THAT, AND SO THE GUIDANCE SHOWING 40S TO NEAR 50 SEEMED
GOOD. CAN`T RULE OUT A SPRINKLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO PUT INTO THE FORECAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT A LITTLE TRICKY ON THE CLOUDS AND HOW COLD IT COULD
GET. AGAIN, THINKING MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR AND THIS WILL ACT AS A
BLANKET. LEANED A LITTLE TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THAT.
HOWEVER IF WE DO GET SOME CLEARING, IT WILL BE CHILLIER THAN I`M
CURRENTLY PAINTING. GENERALLY HAVE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
REGION (SOME UPPER 30S CLOSE TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN).

FRIDAY THINGS WILL BE CHANGING. THE CLOSELY WATCHED UPPER TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFYING AS ENERGY CURRENTLY
UP OVER NORTHERN CANADA DIVES INTO THE TROUGH. MODEL TRENDS OF THE
PAST FEW DAYS SHOWING THAT THE UPPER TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW) WILL BE DIGGING MORE SOUTH THAN EAST. THUS, LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF ALL THE "EXCITEMENT". STILL
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THICKER CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND SOME
VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER, HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

HALLOWEEN EVENING AND TRICK OR TREATING TIME:
GUIDANCE ALL PRETTY SIMILAR IN SHOWING THAT ALTHOUGH SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO VERMONT BY LATE NIGHT, IT WILL ALL
BE ON THE VERY LIGHT SIDE. THE TRENDS OF HAVING THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE TAKE A TRACK FAAAAR SOUTH OF HERE MEAN THAT QPF WILL
GENERALLY BE 0.05" OR LESS. AS THE NIGHT GOES ON, THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO SLOWLY COOL SUCH THAT FREEZING LEVELS WILL
FALL AND BY LATE NIGHT IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT A FEW
SNOWFLAKES WILL BE SEEN INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. AGAIN, NOT A
LOT OF STUFF FALLING FROM THE SKY. PERHAPS A SLUSHY 1/2" AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000FT, ESPECIALLY IN THE `DACKS COME SATURDAY
MORNING. BOTTOM LINE, THE GHOULS AND GOBLINS SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET
OUT AND AROUND WITHOUT TOO MUCH NEED OF UMBRELLAS -- AT LEAST IT
LOOKS THAT WAY AT THIS POINT. WE`LL SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS
TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED SAT AND SUN AS A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK, THEN NORTH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. STILL COOL MONDAY BUT
DRY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A WARM THEN COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

CONFIDENCE INCREASING AS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
AD CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP UPPER TROF WHICH CLOSES
OFF. ALSO FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SAT INTO SUNDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS OF HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW THE PRECIPITATION
WILL EXTEND AS THE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY OVER THE WARM WATERS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND CONVECTION DEVELOPS. THIS IS WHEN THE
MODELS USUALLY HAVE THEIR PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY WITH HOW FAR WEST
THE LOW WILL BE AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS THROWN BACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND ESPECIALLY LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

FOR NOW CONTINUING THE IDEA THAT THE OUR AREA WILL ONLY GET LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MOST AREAS COLD ENOUGH TO
SEE A SOME FLAKES ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE MOSTLY
SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. IF THE LOW
TRACKS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST, PERHAPS EASTERN VT MAY GET IN ON
SOME LIGHT BUT STEADIER PRECIPITATION.

WE ARE EXPECTING NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AND BE GUSTY
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROF SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE NE CONUS WITH TEMPS
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUES CONTINUING INTO WED AS A WARM
THEN COLD FRONTS TRAVERSE THE AREA WITH WITH MAINLY A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT AND MONDAY,
30S SUNDAY BUT RECOVERING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S TUES/WED.
LOWS GENERALLY 25 TO 35 BUT WARMING INTO THE 30S BY TUES/WED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR, HOWEVER LCL MVFR CIGS AT KSLK.
A WEAK TROF/COLD FRONT SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
BETWEEN 06-12Z AND COULD BRING A SHOWER AT KSLK AROUND 06Z BUT
LEFT OUT DUE TO A PROBABILITY OF ABOUT 30% OF MEASURABLE PRECIP.
CONSIDERABLE STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
TROF TOMORROW.

SW/W WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUST TO 25 KNOTS THOUGH 21Z ESPECIALLY
KMSS/KSLK. WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME NW 5 TO 10 KTS TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THU...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH STRATOCUMULUS AND LIGHT NW FLOW. FRI
CLOUDS WL INCREASE AND LOWER BY FRIDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF -SHRA
WITH MTN -SHSN FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS
AND POTENTIAL IFR VIS/CIGS AT MPV/SLK. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY MVFR ON MONDAY UNDER NW FLOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH/SLW
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 292253
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
653 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT, BRINGING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER EVEN THOUGH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM WEST OF HERE ON FRIDAY
AND THEN TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THEN OFFSHORE THE EAST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE
FRIDAY WHICH CHANGES OVER TO A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY, NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, EXCEPT ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CHILLY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 650 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...RADAR TREND CONTINUE WITH RAINFALL
EAST OF CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. THERE WERE/ARE A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NY BUT SATELLITE
IMGERY ALREADY SHOWS SOLID DECK MOVING INTO WESTERN NY AND
PROGRESSING. BASICALLY...NO CHANGES TO ON-GOING FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 330PM FOLLOWS: MID AFTERNOON UPDATE
STILL GOING ON TRACK. JUST MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS SHOWING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
STILL FALLING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN VERMONT AS THE FRONT EVER SO
SLOWLY PUSHES EAST. THE FRONT IS BEST SEEN BY A DEWPOINT DROP
(UPPER 40S/LOW 50S TO THE UPPER 30S) ALONG WITH A WINDSHIFT TO
SOUTHWEST AND WEST.

ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS, SHADED TOWARD THE
WARMER GUIDANCE BASED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW
TO CLEAR, SO LOOK FOR LOTS OF 30S WITH A FEW LOWER 40S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 130PM FOLLOWS:

THE FORECAST STILL CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK. THE SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT ARE CONTINUING TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IT WILL END UP SLOWING DOWN EVEN
FURTHER AND HANGING AROUND TILL EARLY THIS EVENING. SO THE ONLY
REAL CHANGE TO THE POPS WAS TO CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION ALONG BUT
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL AROUND 7PM. THE
ONLY OTHER ADDITION TO THE POP FORECAST WAS TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AS THE WINDS
CONTINUE TO SHIFT AROUND THE END RESULT WILL BE PARALLEL FLOW TO
THE GREAT LAKES WHICH COULD END UP IN SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THAT ISN`T
VERY STRONG BUT THE SIGNAL DOES SHOW UP IN THE HRRR AND SOME LOCAL
HI-RES MODELS.

THE NEXT CONCERN WAS WHETHER WE WOULD END UP CLEARING OUT BUT AS
THE MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
THE FLOW WILL END UP SHIFTING ENOUGH FROM THE WEST TO THE
SOUTHWEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GREAT
LAKES RESULTING IN CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

I MADE SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECAUSE AT
THE THIS POINT WITH THE CLOUD COVER SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WERE INDICATING SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION HAD ALREADY BEGUN AND
BOTH MT MANSFIELD AND WHITEFACE MT ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 30S
LOW 40S RIGHT NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TOMORROW AS WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER STILL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A LOW-MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW THAT
SHOULD KEEP BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THUS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. BEST
CHANCES FOR MORE SUN WILL BE DOWN IN SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT WITH THE
AID OF DOWNSLOPING OFF THE GREENS. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPERATURES. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 1-3C RANGE, THE
MAXIMUM WE COULD SEE WOULD BE THE LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL PUT A
DAMPER ON THAT, AND SO THE GUIDANCE SHOWING 40S TO NEAR 50 SEEMED
GOOD. CAN`T RULE OUT A SPRINKLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO PUT INTO THE FORECAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT A LITTLE TRICKY ON THE CLOUDS AND HOW COLD IT COULD
GET. AGAIN, THINKING MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR AND THIS WILL ACT AS A
BLANKET. LEANED A LITTLE TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THAT.
HOWEVER IF WE DO GET SOME CLEARING, IT WILL BE CHILLIER THAN I`M
CURRENTLY PAINTING. GENERALLY HAVE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
REGION (SOME UPPER 30S CLOSE TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN).

FRIDAY THINGS WILL BE CHANGING. THE CLOSELY WATCHED UPPER TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFYING AS ENERGY CURRENTLY
UP OVER NORTHERN CANADA DIVES INTO THE TROUGH. MODEL TRENDS OF THE
PAST FEW DAYS SHOWING THAT THE UPPER TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW) WILL BE DIGGING MORE SOUTH THAN EAST. THUS, LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF ALL THE "EXCITEMENT". STILL
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THICKER CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND SOME
VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER, HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

HALLOWEEN EVENING AND TRICK OR TREATING TIME:
GUIDANCE ALL PRETTY SIMILAR IN SHOWING THAT ALTHOUGH SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO VERMONT BY LATE NIGHT, IT WILL ALL
BE ON THE VERY LIGHT SIDE. THE TRENDS OF HAVING THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE TAKE A TRACK FAAAAR SOUTH OF HERE MEAN THAT QPF WILL
GENERALLY BE 0.05" OR LESS. AS THE NIGHT GOES ON, THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO SLOWLY COOL SUCH THAT FREEZING LEVELS WILL
FALL AND BY LATE NIGHT IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT A FEW
SNOWFLAKES WILL BE SEEN INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. AGAIN, NOT A
LOT OF STUFF FALLING FROM THE SKY. PERHAPS A SLUSHY 1/2" AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000FT, ESPECIALLY IN THE `DACKS COME SATURDAY
MORNING. BOTTOM LINE, THE GHOULS AND GOBLINS SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET
OUT AND AROUND WITHOUT TOO MUCH NEED OF UMBRELLAS -- AT LEAST IT
LOOKS THAT WAY AT THIS POINT. WE`LL SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS
TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED SAT AND SUN AS A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK, THEN NORTH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. STILL COOL MONDAY BUT
DRY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A WARM THEN COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

CONFIDENCE INCREASING AS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
AD CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP UPPER TROF WHICH CLOSES
OFF. ALSO FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SAT INTO SUNDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS OF HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW THE PRECIPITATION
WILL EXTEND AS THE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY OVER THE WARM WATERS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND CONVECTION DEVELOPS. THIS IS WHEN THE
MODELS USUALLY HAVE THEIR PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY WITH HOW FAR WEST
THE LOW WILL BE AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS THROWN BACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND ESPECIALLY LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

FOR NOW CONTINUING THE IDEA THAT THE OUR AREA WILL ONLY GET LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MOST AREAS COLD ENOUGH TO
SEE A SOME FLAKES ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE MOSTLY
SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. IF THE LOW
TRACKS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST, PERHAPS EASTERN VT MAY GET IN ON
SOME LIGHT BUT STEADIER PRECIPITATION.

WE ARE EXPECTING NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AND BE GUSTY
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROF SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE NE CONUS WITH TEMPS
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUES CONTINUING INTO WED AS A WARM
THEN COLD FRONTS TRAVERSE THE AREA WITH WITH MAINLY A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT AND MONDAY,
30S SUNDAY BUT RECOVERING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S TUES/WED.
LOWS GENERALLY 25 TO 35 BUT WARMING INTO THE 30S BY TUES/WED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR, HOWEVER LCL MVFR CIGS AT KSLK.
A WEAK TROF/COLD FRONT SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
BETWEEN 06-12Z AND COULD BRING A SHOWER AT KSLK AROUND 06Z BUT
LEFT OUT DUE TO A PROBABILITY OF ABOUT 30% OF MEASURABLE PRECIP.
CONSIDERABLE STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
TROF TOMORROW.

SW/W WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUST TO 25 KNOTS THOUGH 21Z ESPECIALLY
KMSS/KSLK. WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME NW 5 TO 10 KTS TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THU...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH STRATOCUMULUS AND LIGHT NW FLOW. FRI
CLOUDS WL INCREASE AND LOWER BY FRIDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF -SHRA
WITH MTN -SHSN FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS
AND POTENTIAL IFR VIS/CIGS AT MPV/SLK. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY MVFR ON MONDAY UNDER NW FLOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH/SLW
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KALY 292228
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
628 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY START TO
CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS A COOLER AIR MASS WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE TOMORROW INTO
FRIDAY...BEFORE EVEN COLDER AIR ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 625 PM EDT..A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS SITUATED EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT TOOK ON ANAFRONT
CHARACTERISTICS...AS A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STILL REMAINS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL END. ANY
ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS PROGRESSING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK...AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PICKING UP SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE DRY.

TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO
BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH 40S
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH THE NW FLOW IN PLACE...SOME CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH MANY AREAS TURNING OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWER OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY DUE
TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EARLY IN THE DAY...OTHERWISE
IT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
30S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN FOR
FRIDAY...AS A SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.

THE BEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...ESP LATE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SNOW
WILL BE ABOVE 2000 FEET. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT...JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT MOST...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM AND AN OCEAN STORM WILL BE IN FOCUS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTING
FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN THESE EVENTS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF DELMARVA. THE LACK OF PHASING OF
THE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE PCPN EAST OF THE FA. ALTHOUGH
SOME MINOR PCPN ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH JUST
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...LACK OF QPF LIKELY TO PRODUCE ONLY
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE BLUSTERY DAY WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE FA AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE
COASTAL SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE PCPN MAY JUST BRUSH THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE
MILDER AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FA OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 22/23Z BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE
REGION. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KPSF
FROM 18-20Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS WITH THE SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT BECOME WESTERLY BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TAF
SITES AROUND 3-5 KFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT
AT KPOU WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE MOVING EASTWARD
AND OUT OF THE AREA SOON. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALLOWS FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND
BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ABOUT TWO TENTHS OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 292011
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
411 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY START TO
CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS A COOLER AIR MASS WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE TOMORROW INTO
FRIDAY...BEFORE EVEN COLDER AIR ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT..A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS SITUATED JUST EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT HAS TAKEN ON
ANAFRONT CHARACTERISTICS...AS A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STILL
REMAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION AND CATSKILLS ON EASTWARD. THE FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY SLIDE
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
END BY EARLY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES.
ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS PROGRESSING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEW
YORK...AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PICKING UP SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE DRY.

TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO
BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH 40S
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH THE NW FLOW IN PLACE...SOME CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH MANY AREAS TURNING OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWER OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY DUE
TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EARLY IN THE DAY...OTHERWISE
IT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
30S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN FOR
FRIDAY...AS A SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.

THE BEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...ESP LATE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SNOW
WILL BE ABOVE 2000 FEET. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT...JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT MOST...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM AND AN OCEAN STORM WILL BE IN FOCUS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTING
FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN THESE EVENTS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF DELMARVA. THE LACK OF PHASING OF
THE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE PCPN EAST OF THE FA. ALTHOUGH
SOME MINOR PCPN ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH JUST
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...LACK OF QPF LIKELY TO PRODUCE ONLY
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE BLUSTERY DAY WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE FA AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE
COASTAL SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE PCPN MAY JUST BRUSH THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE
MILDER AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FA OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 22/23Z BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE
REGION. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KPSF
FROM 18-20Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS WITH THE SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT BECOME WESTERLY BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TAF
SITES AROUND 3-5 KFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT
AT KPOU WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE MOVING EASTWARD
AND OUT OF THE AREA SOON. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALLOWS FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND
BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ABOUT TWO TENTHS OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 292010
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
410 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY START TO
CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS A COOLER AIR MASS WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE TOMORROW INTO
FRIDAY...BEFORE EVEN COLDER AIR ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT..A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS SITUATED JUST EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT HAS TAKEN ON
ANAFRONT CHARACTERISTICS...AS A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STILL
REMAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION AND CATSKILLS ON EASTWARD. THE FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY SLIDE
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
END BY EARLY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES.
ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS PROGRESSING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEW
YORK...AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PICKING UP SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE DRY.

TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO
BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH 40S
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH THE NW FLOW IN PLACE...SOME CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH MANY AREAS TURNING OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWER OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY DUE
TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EARLY IN THE DAY...OTHERWISE
IT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
30S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN FOR
FRIDAY...AS A SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.

THE BEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...ESP LATE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SNOW
WILL BE ABOVE 2000 FEET. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT...JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT MOST...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM AND AN OCEAN STORM WILL BE IN FOCUS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTING
FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN THESE EVENTS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF DELMARVA. THE LACK OF PHASING OF
THE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE PCPN EAST OF THE FA. ALTHOUGH
SOME MINOR PCPN ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH JUST
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...LACK OF QPF LIKELY TO PRODUCE ONLY
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE BLUSTERY DAY WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE FA AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE
COASTAL SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE PCPN MAY JUST BRUSH THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE
MILDER AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FA OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 22/23Z BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE
REGION. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KPSF
FROM 18-20Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS WITH THE SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT BECOME WESTERLY BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TAF
SITES AROUND 3-5 KFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT
AT KPOU WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE MOVING EASTWARD
AND OUT OF THE AREA SOON. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALLOWS FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND
BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ABOUT TWO TENTHS OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KBTV 292003
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
403 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT, BRINGING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER EVEN THOUGH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM WEST OF HERE ON FRIDAY
AND THEN TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THEN OFFSHORE THE EAST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE
FRIDAY WHICH CHANGES OVER TO A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY, NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, EXCEPT ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CHILLY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MID AFTERNOON UPDATE STILL GOING ON
TRACK. JUST MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS SHOWING LIGHT PRECIPITATION STILL FALLING
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN VERMONT AS THE FRONT EVER SO SLOWLY PUSHES
EAST. THE FRONT IS BEST SEEN BY A DEWPOINT DROP (UPPER 40S/LOW 50S
TO THE UPPER 30S) ALONG WITH A WINDSHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST.

ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS, SHADED TOWARD THE
WARMER GUIDANCE BASED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW
TO CLEAR, SO LOOK FOR LOTS OF 30S WITH A FEW LOWER 40S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 130PM FOLLOWS:

THE FORECAST STILL CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK. THE SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT ARE CONTINUING TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IT WILL END UP SLOWING DOWN EVEN
FURTHER AND HANGING AROUND TILL EARLY THIS EVENING. SO THE ONLY
REAL CHANGE TO THE POPS WAS TO CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION ALONG BUT
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL AROUND 7PM. THE
ONLY OTHER ADDITION TO THE POP FORECAST WAS TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AS THE WINDS
CONTINUE TO SHIFT AROUND THE END RESULT WILL BE PARALLEL FLOW TO
THE GREAT LAKES WHICH COULD END UP IN SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THAT ISN`T
VERY STRONG BUT THE SIGNAL DOES SHOW UP IN THE HRRR AND SOME LOCAL
HI-RES MODELS.

THE NEXT CONCERN WAS WHETHER WE WOULD END UP CLEARING OUT BUT AS
THE MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
THE FLOW WILL END UP SHIFTING ENOUGH FROM THE WEST TO THE
SOUTHWEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GREAT
LAKES RESULTING IN CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

I MADE SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECAUSE AT
THE THIS POINT WITH THE CLOUD COVER SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WERE INDICATING SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION HAD ALREADY BEGUN AND
BOTH MT MANSFIELD AND WHITEFACE MT ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 30S
LOW 40S RIGHT NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TOMORROW AS WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER STILL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A LOW-MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW THAT
SHOULD KEEP BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THUS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. BEST
CHANCES FOR MORE SUN WILL BE DOWN IN SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT WITH THE
AID OF DOWNSLOPING OFF THE GREENS. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPERATURES. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 1-3C RANGE, THE
MAXIMUM WE COULD SEE WOULD BE THE LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL PUT A
DAMPER ON THAT, AND SO THE GUIDANCE SHOWING 40S TO NEAR 50 SEEMED
GOOD. CAN`T RULE OUT A SPRINKLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO PUT INTO THE FORECAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT A LITTLE TRICKY ON THE CLOUDS AND HOW COLD IT COULD
GET. AGAIN, THINKING MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR AND THIS WILL ACT AS A
BLANKET. LEANED A LITTLE TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THAT.
HOWEVER IF WE DO GET SOME CLEARING, IT WILL BE CHILLIER THAN I`M
CURRENTLY PAINTING. GENERALLY HAVE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
REGION (SOME UPPER 30S CLOSE TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN).

FRIDAY THINGS WILL BE CHANGING. THE CLOSELY WATCHED UPPER TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFYING AS ENERGY CURRENTLY
UP OVER NORTHERN CANADA DIVES INTO THE TROUGH. MODEL TRENDS OF THE
PAST FEW DAYS SHOWING THAT THE UPPER TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW) WILL BE DIGGING MORE SOUTH THAN EAST. THUS, LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF ALL THE "EXCITEMENT". STILL
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THICKER CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND SOME
VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER, HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

HALLOWEEN EVENING AND TRICK OR TREATING TIME:
GUIDANCE ALL PRETTY SIMILAR IN SHOWING THAT ALTHOUGH SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO VERMONT BY LATE NIGHT, IT WILL ALL
BE ON THE VERY LIGHT SIDE. THE TRENDS OF HAVING THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE TAKE A TRACK FAAAAR SOUTH OF HERE MEAN THAT QPF WILL
GENERALLY BE 0.05" OR LESS. AS THE NIGHT GOES ON, THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO SLOWLY COOL SUCH THAT FREEZING LEVELS WILL
FALL AND BY LATE NIGHT IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT A FEW
SNOWFLAKES WILL BE SEEN INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. AGAIN, NOT A
LOT OF STUFF FALLING FROM THE SKY. PERHAPS A SLUSHY 1/2" AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000FT, ESPECIALLY IN THE `DACKS COME SATURDAY
MORNING. BOTTOM LINE, THE GHOULS AND GOBLINS SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET
OUT AND AROUND WITHOUT TOO MUCH NEED OF UMBRELLAS -- AT LEAST IT
LOOKS THAT WAY AT THIS POINT. WE`LL SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS
TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 402 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED SAT AND SUN AS A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK, THEN NORTH TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. STILL COOL MONDAY BUT
DRY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A WARM THEN COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

CONFIDENCE INCREASING AS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
AD CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP UPPER TROF WHICH CLOSES
OFF. ALSO FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SAT INTO SUNDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS OF HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW THE PRECIPITATION
WILL EXTEND AS THE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY OVER THE WARM WATERS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND CONVECTION DEVELOPS. THIS IS WHEN THE
MODELS USUALLY HAVE THEIR PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY WITH HOW FAR WEST
THE LOW WILL BE AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS THROWN BACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND ESPECIALLY LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

FOR NOW CONTINUING THE IDEA THAT THE OUR AREA WILL ONLY GET LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MOST AREAS COLD ENOUGH TO
SEE A SOME FLAKES ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE MOSTLY
SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. IF THE LOW
TRACKS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST, PERHAPS EASTERN VT MAY GET IN ON
SOME LIGHT BUT STEADIER PRECIPITATION.

WE ARE EXPECTING NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AND BE GUSTY
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROF SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE NE CONUS WITH TEMPS
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUES CONTINUING INTO WED AS A WARM
THEN COLD FRONTS TRAVERSE THE AREA WITH WITH MAINLY A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT AND MONDAY,
30S SUNDAY BUT RECOVERING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S TUES/WED.
LOWS GENERALLY 25 TO 35 BUT WARMING INTO THE 30S BY TUES/WED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR, HOWEVER LCL MVFR CIGS AT KSLK.
A WEAK TROF/COLD FRONT SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
BETWEEN 06-12Z AND COULD BRING A SHOWER AT KSLK AROUND 06Z BUT
LEFT OUT DUE TO A PROBABILITY OF ABOUT 30% OF MEASURABLE PRECIP.
CONSIDERABLE STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
TROF TOMORROW.

SW/W WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUST TO 25 KNOTS THOUGH 21Z ESPECIALLY
KMSS/KSLK. WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME NW 5 TO 10 KTS TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THU...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH STRATOCUMULUS AND LIGHT NW FLOW. FRI
CLOUDS WL INCREASE AND LOWER BY FRIDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF -SHRA
WITH MTN -SHSN FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS
AND POTENTIAL IFR VIS/CIGS AT MPV/SLK. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY MVFR ON MONDAY UNDER NW FLOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 292001
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
401 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT, BRINGING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER EVEN THOUGH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM WEST OF HERE ON FRIDAY
AND THEN TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THEN OFFSHORE THE EAST
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE
FRIDAY WHICH CHANGES OVER TO A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY, NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, EXCEPT ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CHILLY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...MID AFTERNOON UPDATE STILL GOING ON
TRACK. JUST MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS SHOWING LIGHT PRECIPITATION STILL FALLING
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN VERMONT AS THE FRONT EVER SO SLOWLY PUSHES
EAST. THE FRONT IS BEST SEEN BY A DEWPOINT DROP (UPPER 40S/LOW 50S
TO THE UPPER 30S) ALONG WITH A WINDSHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST.

ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS, SHADED TOWARD THE
WARMER GUIDANCE BASED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW
TO CLEAR, SO LOOK FOR LOTS OF 30S WITH A FEW LOWER 40S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 130PM FOLLOWS:

THE FORECAST STILL CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK. THE SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT ARE CONTINUING TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IT WILL END UP SLOWING DOWN EVEN
FURTHER AND HANGING AROUND TILL EARLY THIS EVENING. SO THE ONLY
REAL CHANGE TO THE POPS WAS TO CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION ALONG BUT
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL AROUND 7PM. THE
ONLY OTHER ADDITION TO THE POP FORECAST WAS TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AS THE WINDS
CONTINUE TO SHIFT AROUND THE END RESULT WILL BE PARALLEL FLOW TO
THE GREAT LAKES WHICH COULD END UP IN SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THAT ISN`T
VERY STRONG BUT THE SIGNAL DOES SHOW UP IN THE HRRR AND SOME LOCAL
HI-RES MODELS.

THE NEXT CONCERN WAS WHETHER WE WOULD END UP CLEARING OUT BUT AS
THE MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
THE FLOW WILL END UP SHIFTING ENOUGH FROM THE WEST TO THE
SOUTHWEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GREAT
LAKES RESULTING IN CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

I MADE SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECAUSE AT
THE THIS POINT WITH THE CLOUD COVER SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WERE INDICATING SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION HAD ALREADY BEGUN AND
BOTH MT MANSFIELD AND WHITEFACE MT ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 30S
LOW 40S RIGHT NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TOMORROW AS WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER STILL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A LOW-MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW THAT
SHOULD KEEP BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THUS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. BEST
CHANCES FOR MORE SUN WILL BE DOWN IN SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT WITH THE
AID OF DOWNSLOPING OFF THE GREENS. KEPT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPERATURES. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 1-3C RANGE, THE
MAXIMUM WE COULD SEE WOULD BE THE LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL PUT A
DAMPER ON THAT, AND SO THE GUIDANCE SHOWING 40S TO NEAR 50 SEEMED
GOOD. CAN`T RULE OUT A SPRINKLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO PUT INTO THE FORECAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT A LITTLE TRICKY ON THE CLOUDS AND HOW COLD IT COULD
GET. AGAIN, THINKING MORE CLOUDS THAN CLEAR AND THIS WILL ACT AS A
BLANKET. LEANED A LITTLE TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THAT.
HOWEVER IF WE DO GET SOME CLEARING, IT WILL BE CHILLIER THAN I`M
CURRENTLY PAINTING. GENERALLY HAVE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
REGION (SOME UPPER 30S CLOSE TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN).

FRIDAY THINGS WILL BE CHANGING. THE CLOSELY WATCHED UPPER TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFYING AS ENERGY CURRENTLY
UP OVER NORTHERN CANADA DIVES INTO THE TROUGH. MODEL TRENDS OF THE
PAST FEW DAYS SHOWING THAT THE UPPER TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW) WILL BE DIGGING MORE SOUTH THAN EAST. THUS, LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF ALL THE "EXCITEMENT". STILL
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THICKER CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND SOME
VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER, HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

HALLOWEEN EVENING AND TRICK OR TREATING TIME:
GUIDANCE ALL PRETTY SIMILAR IN SHOWING THAT ALTHOUGH SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO VERMONT BY LATE NIGHT, IT WILL ALL
BE ON THE VERY LIGHT SIDE. THE TRENDS OF HAVING THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE TAKE A TRACK FAAAAR SOUTH OF HERE MEAN THAT QPF WILL
GENERALLY BE 0.05" OR LESS. AS THE NIGHT GOES ON, THE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO SLOWLY COOL SUCH THAT FREEZING LEVELS WILL
FALL AND BY LATE NIGHT IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT A FEW
SNOWFLAKES WILL BE SEEN INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. AGAIN, NOT A
LOT OF STUFF FALLING FROM THE SKY. PERHAPS A SLUSHY 1/2" AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000FT, ESPECIALLY IN THE `DACKS COME SATURDAY
MORNING. BOTTOM LINE, THE GHOULS AND GOBLINS SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET
OUT AND AROUND WITHOUT TOO MUCH NEED OF UMBRELLAS -- AT LEAST IT
LOOKS THAT WAY AT THIS POINT. WE`LL SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS
TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER
LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WL RESULT IN MUCH BLW NORMAL TEMPS
THIS WEEKEND ACRS OUR CWA...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE MTNS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF TROF AND TRACK OF SFC LOW PRES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SAT INTO SUNDAY...BUT STILL FEEL A FEW MORE SHIFTS
ARE LIKELY GIVEN TIME PERIOD IS STILL 84 TO 96 HRS AWAY AND S/W
DISTURBANCE OF INTEREST IS LOCATED OVER AN AREA WHICH IS POORLY
SAMPLED BY UA DATA.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT DROPS ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...AND HELPS DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION OVER NW
NORTH CAROLINA BY 12Z SAT. THIS TIGHT/SMALL CIRCULATION WL SHIFT
EAST ON SATURDAY...AND HELP ENHANCE SFC LOW PRES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR
S/W ENERGY AND CLOSED CIRCULATION TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WHILE SFC
LOW PRES DEVELOPS FURTHER OFF THE COAST...RESULTING IN LESS
OVERALL MOISTURE/QPF ACRS OUR CWA. HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOWS
SOME 850 TO 500MB RH IN TROF AXIS ACRS OUR FA...ALONG WITH
DEVELOPING NORTHERLY WINDS. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN
-8 AND -10C...MOVING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPS IN THE MID
50S WL RESULT IN SOME LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY. WL CONT TO
MENTION LIKELY POPS FOR NORTHERN NY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH INITIAL
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. WL SPREAD THESE
HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS INTO VT MTNS ON SATURDAY...BEFORE
TAPERING BACK BY SUNDAY...AS DRIER AIR DEVELOPS. STILL THINKING A
DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES WL BE LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND ACRS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN NY AND VT.

ECMWF CONTS TO SHOW SOME SUPPORT FOR SECONDARY 5H VORT CAPTURING
SYSTEM SOON ENOUGH AND PULLING MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. IF THIS SCENARIO WAS TO HAPPEN...HIGHER
POPS WOULD BE NEEDED ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AND EASTERN VT ZNS ON
SUNDAY. ALSO...ANY SHIFT TWD THE SNE COAST WOULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE PRECIP ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN
SECTIONS...WHICH WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY AS
SYSTEM WL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED BY UA DATA OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HRS. TEMPS WL BE IN THE U20S TO MID 30S MTNS TO MID 30S TO L40S
VALLEYS SAT...WITH ONLY 20S MTNS AND 30S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. THESE
CHILLY TEMPS WL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE ALIGNED NORTH/SOUTH VALLEYS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MID/UPPER LVL TROF SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE NE
CONUS WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY MONDAY. NEXT
WEAK SFC COLD FRNT AND NARROW RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE
APPROACHES OUR CWA ON TUES...WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS CLIMB BTWN 2C AND 4C BY 12Z TUESDAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY
LIQUID. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED LLVL COLD AIR HANGS TOUGH EAST OF
THE GREEN MTNS ON MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS HOLDING IN THE M30S
TO L40S...WHILE PARTS OF THE CPV/SLV WARM INTO THE M40S TO L50S ON
SOUTHWEST WINDS. QPF WL BE LIGHT WITH SYSTEM ON TUES < 0.25".

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR, HOWEVER LCL MVFR CIGS AT KSLK.
A WEAK TROF/COLD FRONT SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
BETWEEN 06-12Z AND COULD BRING A SHOWER AT KSLK AROUND 06Z BUT
LEFT OUT DUE TO A PROBABILITY OF ABOUT 30% OF MEASURABLE PRECIP.
CONSIDERABLE STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
TROF TOMORROW.

SW/W WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUST TO 25 KNOTS THOUGH 21Z ESPECIALLY
KMSS/KSLK. WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME NW 5 TO 10 KTS TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THU...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH STRATOCUMULUS AND LIGHT NW FLOW. FRI
CLOUDS WL INCREASE AND LOWER BY FRIDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF -SHRA
WITH MTN -SHSN FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS
AND POTENTIAL IFR VIS/CIGS AT MPV/SLK. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY MVFR ON MONDAY UNDER NW FLOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH/DEAL
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 291812
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
212 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT TODAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RESIDE OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING COOLER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 133 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THE FORECAST STILL CONTINUES TO BE
ON TRACK. THE SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT ARE CONTINUING TO
DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IT
WILL END UP SLOWING DOWN EVEN FURTHER AND HANGING AROUND TILL
EARLY THIS EVENING. SO THE ONLY REAL CHANGE TO THE POPS WAS TO
CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION ALONG BUT KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH
THIS EVENING UNTIL AROUND 7PM. THE ONLY OTHER ADDITION TO THE
POP FORECAST WAS TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT AROUND THE
END RESULT WILL BE PARALLEL FLOW TO THE GREAT LAKES WHICH COULD
END UP IN SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THAT ISN`T VERY STRONG BUT THE SIGNAL
DOES SHOW UP IN THE HRRR AND SOME LOCAL HI-RES MODELS.

THE NEXT CONCERN WAS WHETHER WE WOULD END UP CLEARING OUT BUT AS
THE MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
THE FLOW WILL END UP SHIFTING ENOUGH FROM THE WEST TO THE
SOUTHWEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GREAT
LAKES RESULTING IN CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

I MADE SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECAUSE AT
THE THIS POINT WITH THE CLOUD COVER SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WERE INDICATING SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION HAD ALREADY BEGUN AND
BOTH MT MANSFIELD AND WHITEFACE MT ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 30S
LOW 40S RIGHT NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 436 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A
SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY...WITH CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...MAINLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR RAIN SHOWERS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER
LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WL RESULT IN MUCH BLW NORMAL TEMPS
THIS WEEKEND ACRS OUR CWA...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE MTNS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF TROF AND TRACK OF SFC LOW PRES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SAT INTO SUNDAY...BUT STILL FEEL A FEW MORE SHIFTS
ARE LIKELY GIVEN TIME PERIOD IS STILL 84 TO 96 HRS AWAY AND S/W
DISTURBANCE OF INTEREST IS LOCATED OVER AN AREA WHICH IS POORLY
SAMPLED BY UA DATA.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT DROPS ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...AND HELPS DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION OVER NW
NORTH CAROLINA BY 12Z SAT. THIS TIGHT/SMALL CIRCULATION WL SHIFT
EAST ON SATURDAY...AND HELP ENHANCE SFC LOW PRES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR
S/W ENERGY AND CLOSED CIRCULATION TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WHILE SFC
LOW PRES DEVELOPS FURTHER OFF THE COAST...RESULTING IN LESS
OVERALL MOISTURE/QPF ACRS OUR CWA. HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOWS
SOME 850 TO 500MB RH IN TROF AXIS ACRS OUR FA...ALONG WITH
DEVELOPING NORTHERLY WINDS. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN
-8 AND -10C...MOVING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPS IN THE MID
50S WL RESULT IN SOME LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY. WL CONT TO
MENTION LIKELY POPS FOR NORTHERN NY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH INITIAL
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. WL SPREAD THESE
HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS INTO VT MTNS ON SATURDAY...BEFORE
TAPERING BACK BY SUNDAY...AS DRIER AIR DEVELOPS. STILL THINKING A
DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES WL BE LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND ACRS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN NY AND VT.

ECMWF CONTS TO SHOW SOME SUPPORT FOR SECONDARY 5H VORT CAPTURING
SYSTEM SOON ENOUGH AND PULLING MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. IF THIS SCENARIO WAS TO HAPPEN...HIGHER
POPS WOULD BE NEEDED ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AND EASTERN VT ZNS ON
SUNDAY. ALSO...ANY SHIFT TWD THE SNE COAST WOULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE PRECIP ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN
SECTIONS...WHICH WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY AS
SYSTEM WL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED BY UA DATA OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HRS. TEMPS WL BE IN THE U20S TO MID 30S MTNS TO MID 30S TO L40S
VALLEYS SAT...WITH ONLY 20S MTNS AND 30S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. THESE
CHILLY TEMPS WL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE ALIGNED NORTH/SOUTH VALLEYS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MID/UPPER LVL TROF SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE NE
CONUS WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY MONDAY. NEXT
WEAK SFC COLD FRNT AND NARROW RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE
APPROACHES OUR CWA ON TUES...WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS CLIMB BTWN 2C AND 4C BY 12Z TUESDAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY
LIQUID. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED LLVL COLD AIR HANGS TOUGH EAST OF
THE GREEN MTNS ON MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS HOLDING IN THE M30S
TO L40S...WHILE PARTS OF THE CPV/SLV WARM INTO THE M40S TO L50S ON
SOUTHWEST WINDS. QPF WL BE LIGHT WITH SYSTEM ON TUES < 0.25".

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR, HOWEVER LCL MVFR CIGS AT KSLK.
A WEAK TROF/COLD FRONT SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
BETWEEN 06-12Z AND COULD BRING A SHOWER AT KSLK AROUND 06Z BUT
LEFT OUT DUE TO A PROBABILITY OF ABOUT 30% OF MEASURABLE PRECIP.
CONSIDERABLE STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
TROF TOMORROW.

SW/W WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS GUST TO 25 KNOTS THOUGH 21Z ESPECIALLY
KMSS/KSLK. WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME NW 5 TO 10 KTS TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THU...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH STRATOCUMULUS AND LIGHT NW FLOW. FRI
CLOUDS WL INCREASE AND LOWER BY FRIDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF -SHRA
WITH MTN -SHSN FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS
AND POTENTIAL IFR VIS/CIGS AT MPV/SLK. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY MVFR ON MONDAY UNDER NW FLOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 291755
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
155 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT TODAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RESIDE OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING COOLER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 133 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THE FORECAST STILL CONTINUES TO BE
ON TRACK. THE SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT ARE CONTINUING TO
DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IT
WILL END UP SLOWING DOWN EVEN FURTHER AND HANGING AROUND TILL
EARLY THIS EVENING. SO THE ONLY REAL CHANGE TO THE POPS WAS TO
CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION ALONG BUT KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH
THIS EVENING UNTIL AROUND 7PM. THE ONLY OTHER ADDITION TO THE
POP FORECAST WAS TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT AROUND THE
END RESULT WILL BE PARALLEL FLOW TO THE GREAT LAKES WHICH COULD
END UP IN SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THAT ISN`T VERY STRONG BUT THE SIGNAL
DOES SHOW UP IN THE HRRR AND SOME LOCAL HI-RES MODELS.

THE NEXT CONCERN WAS WHETHER WE WOULD END UP CLEARING OUT BUT AS
THE MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
THE FLOW WILL END UP SHIFTING ENOUGH FROM THE WEST TO THE
SOUTHWEST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GREAT
LAKES RESULTING IN CONTINUED CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

I MADE SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECAUSE AT
THE THIS POINT WITH THE CLOUD COVER SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WERE INDICATING SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION HAD ALREADY BEGUN AND
BOTH MT MANSFIELD AND WHITEFACE MT ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 30S
LOW 40S RIGHT NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 436 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A
SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY...WITH CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...MAINLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR RAIN SHOWERS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER
LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WL RESULT IN MUCH BLW NORMAL TEMPS
THIS WEEKEND ACRS OUR CWA...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE MTNS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF TROF AND TRACK OF SFC LOW PRES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SAT INTO SUNDAY...BUT STILL FEEL A FEW MORE SHIFTS
ARE LIKELY GIVEN TIME PERIOD IS STILL 84 TO 96 HRS AWAY AND S/W
DISTURBANCE OF INTEREST IS LOCATED OVER AN AREA WHICH IS POORLY
SAMPLED BY UA DATA.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT DROPS ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...AND HELPS DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION OVER NW
NORTH CAROLINA BY 12Z SAT. THIS TIGHT/SMALL CIRCULATION WL SHIFT
EAST ON SATURDAY...AND HELP ENHANCE SFC LOW PRES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR
S/W ENERGY AND CLOSED CIRCULATION TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WHILE SFC
LOW PRES DEVELOPS FURTHER OFF THE COAST...RESULTING IN LESS
OVERALL MOISTURE/QPF ACRS OUR CWA. HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOWS
SOME 850 TO 500MB RH IN TROF AXIS ACRS OUR FA...ALONG WITH
DEVELOPING NORTHERLY WINDS. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN
-8 AND -10C...MOVING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPS IN THE MID
50S WL RESULT IN SOME LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY. WL CONT TO
MENTION LIKELY POPS FOR NORTHERN NY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH INITIAL
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. WL SPREAD THESE
HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS INTO VT MTNS ON SATURDAY...BEFORE
TAPERING BACK BY SUNDAY...AS DRIER AIR DEVELOPS. STILL THINKING A
DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES WL BE LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND ACRS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN NY AND VT.

ECMWF CONTS TO SHOW SOME SUPPORT FOR SECONDARY 5H VORT CAPTURING
SYSTEM SOON ENOUGH AND PULLING MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. IF THIS SCENARIO WAS TO HAPPEN...HIGHER
POPS WOULD BE NEEDED ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AND EASTERN VT ZNS ON
SUNDAY. ALSO...ANY SHIFT TWD THE SNE COAST WOULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE PRECIP ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN
SECTIONS...WHICH WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY AS
SYSTEM WL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED BY UA DATA OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HRS. TEMPS WL BE IN THE U20S TO MID 30S MTNS TO MID 30S TO L40S
VALLEYS SAT...WITH ONLY 20S MTNS AND 30S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. THESE
CHILLY TEMPS WL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE ALIGNED NORTH/SOUTH VALLEYS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MID/UPPER LVL TROF SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE NE
CONUS WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY MONDAY. NEXT
WEAK SFC COLD FRNT AND NARROW RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE
APPROACHES OUR CWA ON TUES...WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS CLIMB BTWN 2C AND 4C BY 12Z TUESDAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY
LIQUID. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED LLVL COLD AIR HANGS TOUGH EAST OF
THE GREEN MTNS ON MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS HOLDING IN THE M30S
TO L40S...WHILE PARTS OF THE CPV/SLV WARM INTO THE M40S TO L50S ON
SOUTHWEST WINDS. QPF WL BE LIGHT WITH SYSTEM ON TUES < 0.25".

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WEAK SFC COLD FRNT AND ASSOCIATED RIBBON
OF MOISTURE IS PRODUCING A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM
MPV TO RUT THIS MORNING. THIS PRECIP WL BE EAST OF OUR TAF SITES
BY 14Z. OTHERWISE...OBS AT PBG/SLK THIS MORNING HAVE INDICATED
SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG WITH BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS...BUT THIS
SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT AS WINDS INCREASE. EXPECTING A BREEZY DAY WITH
SOUTHWEST/WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 30
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY BTWN 15-21Z TODAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING
AS SFC HEATING OCCURS AND SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH VFR
CONDITION. MOISTURE INCREASES THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT RAIN AND
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT SLK AFT 03Z...AS LAKE MOISTURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THRU FRIDAY AFTN. CLOUDS WL INCREASE AND LOWER BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR TAF SITES. SCATTERED RAIN WITH MTN
SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE
VALLEYS AND POTENTIAL IFR VIS/CIGS AT MPV/SLK. BRISK NORTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOP SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWERS AND
VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS/MIXED WITH SNOW ON SAT NIGHT. MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KALY 291733
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
133 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS AND THEN TO THE EAST OF THE
REGION TODAY...THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AIR MASS WILL
MOVE IN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS...BUT MAINLY IN AREAS TO THE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 133 PM EDT...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE REGION. MOST OF THE AREA IS NOW BEHIND THE SFC COLD
FRONT...BUT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PARALLEL TO THE SFC
BOUNDARY...SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD AND END BY THE
LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN CLOUDY
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...AS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS
THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS WAY BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS WESTERN
NY/WESTERN PA.

TEMPS HAVE ALREADY REACHED THEIR MAX VALUES IN MOST LOCATIONS DUE
TO THE BOUNDARY ALREADY CROSSING...AND TEMPS LOOK TO HOLD STEADY
AND THEN SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...AS WEAK
COLD AIR ADVECTION BECOMES UNDERWAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROF ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF
COLDER AIR TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE SHOWERS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY ACROSS OTHER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO MOCLDY SKIES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 30 TO 40 AND SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE UPPER LEVEL LOW
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MAKES ITS
WAY INTO THE REGION. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT THE
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY SHOULD GET SOME MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY AND HAVE FORECAST 40 TO 50 PERCENT POPS THERE.
ELSEWHERE...DRY TO 30 PERCENT POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM MAY GRAZE THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS
THE GENERAL MEDIUM GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FOR A COASTAL SYSTEM TO BE
OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL IMPACT...AND MODERATING TEMPS AND DRY WX IS
EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A PROGRESSIVE...DIGGING...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...AS A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.  THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND CLOSED OFF SOUTH OF THE REGION NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  SOME SCT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE SW FLOW
IN ADVANCE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IN THE VICINITY OF NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  COLDER AIR BEING DRAWN IN
FROM THE NORTH MAY CHANGE THE SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE SYNOPTIC FORCING
LOOKS WEAK AT THIS TIME.  IT WILL BE CHILLY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
U30S OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME U20S TO L30S OVER THE SRN
DACKS...ERN CATSKILLS...AND SRN GREENS.  SATURDAY...ACCORDING TO THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES/CMC GUIDANCE...THE H500 CUTOFF MOVE NORTHEAST
OF ERN NC WITH A SFC LOW PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND.
MINIMAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH SCT LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN... AS
THE OCEANIC STORM DRIFTS OUT TO SEA TOO FAR FOR A MAJOR IMPACT IN
THE ALY FCST AREA.  IT WILL BE WINDY AND COOL WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO AROUND 40F OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR
SETS UP OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE IMPRESSIVE OCEAN
CYCLONE LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR OFF THE COAST FOR A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT...BUT IT WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED TO SEE IF THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL PHASING OF THE STREAMS CAN OCCUR CLOSER TO THE
COASTLINE.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -5C TO -10C BY  DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
AFTER LOWS IN THE 20S TO L30S WITH SCT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND...COLD...BLUSTERY...AND DRY WX IS THE TREND. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO 40F IN MOST LOCATIONS.  WIDESPREAD 30S ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH SOME U20S OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM...AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPS GRADUALLY MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL READINGS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH RIDGES IN FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND DRIFTS OFFSHORE...WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  HIGHS ON
TUESDAY REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M40S TO
AROUND 50F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD
AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 22/23Z BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE
REGION. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KPSF
FROM 18-20Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS WITH THE SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT BECOME WESTERLY BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TAF
SITES AROUND 3-5 KFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT
AT KPOU WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS AND THEN EXIT THE REGION
TODAY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TODAY 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT.

THE RH VALUES WILL 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RISE TO 80
TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS DESPITE THE
SHOWERS TODAY ALONG A COLD FRONT. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE IN
THE TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH RANGE.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MOST OF THE HSA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KBTV 291438
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1038 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT TODAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RESIDE OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING COOLER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1025 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...IN GENERAL THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS
TO BE ON TRACK. LOOKING AT RADAR TRENDS THERE IS ONE LAST "BLOB"
OF RAIN JUST GETTING INTO THE ALBANY NY AREA THAT SHOULD BE
SCOOTING THROUGH SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL VERMONT THROUGH ABOUT 2PM.
HRRR MODEL SEEMED TO HAVE PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON IT, SO I TWEAKED
THE POP GRIDS TO FOLLOW THAT MODEL A LITTLE MORE. NET RESULT IS AN
INCREASE OF POPS TO 55-65% IN THAT REGION.

OTHERWISE THE QUESTION IS ALL ABOUT WHEN THE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT.
THE ANSWER TO THAT IS DON`T BE LOOKING FOR MUCH TO HAPPEN.
SATELLITE SHOWS SOME BREAKS OUT IN ONTARIO AND SOME OF THIS MAY
GET INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE
A GOOD DEAL OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. HAVING A DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW WICH WILL ADVECT IN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OFF OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALSO RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS.

AT THIS POINT, TEMPERATURE FORECASTS APPEAR ON TRACK. NOT THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE MUCH GIVEN THE CLOUDS, BUT 50S TO ABOUT 60F
(A GOOD 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) SEEM REASONABLE.

LASTLY, STILL ANTICIPATE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO GET A LITTLE GUSTY
THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 436 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A
SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY...WITH CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...MAINLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR RAIN SHOWERS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER
LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WL RESULT IN MUCH BLW NORMAL TEMPS
THIS WEEKEND ACRS OUR CWA...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE MTNS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF TROF AND TRACK OF SFC LOW PRES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SAT INTO SUNDAY...BUT STILL FEEL A FEW MORE SHIFTS
ARE LIKELY GIVEN TIME PERIOD IS STILL 84 TO 96 HRS AWAY AND S/W
DISTURBANCE OF INTEREST IS LOCATED OVER AN AREA WHICH IS POORLY
SAMPLED BY UA DATA.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT DROPS ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...AND HELPS DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION OVER NW
NORTH CAROLINA BY 12Z SAT. THIS TIGHT/SMALL CIRCULATION WL SHIFT
EAST ON SATURDAY...AND HELP ENHANCE SFC LOW PRES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR
S/W ENERGY AND CLOSED CIRCULATION TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WHILE SFC
LOW PRES DEVELOPS FURTHER OFF THE COAST...RESULTING IN LESS
OVERALL MOISTURE/QPF ACRS OUR CWA. HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOWS
SOME 850 TO 500MB RH IN TROF AXIS ACRS OUR FA...ALONG WITH
DEVELOPING NORTHERLY WINDS. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN
-8 AND -10C...MOVING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPS IN THE MID
50S WL RESULT IN SOME LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY. WL CONT TO
MENTION LIKELY POPS FOR NORTHERN NY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH INITIAL
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. WL SPREAD THESE
HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS INTO VT MTNS ON SATURDAY...BEFORE
TAPERING BACK BY SUNDAY...AS DRIER AIR DEVELOPS. STILL THINKING A
DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES WL BE LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND ACRS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN NY AND VT.

ECMWF CONTS TO SHOW SOME SUPPORT FOR SECONDARY 5H VORT CAPTURING
SYSTEM SOON ENOUGH AND PULLING MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. IF THIS SCENARIO WAS TO HAPPEN...HIGHER
POPS WOULD BE NEEDED ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AND EASTERN VT ZNS ON
SUNDAY. ALSO...ANY SHIFT TWD THE SNE COAST WOULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE PRECIP ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN
SECTIONS...WHICH WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY AS
SYSTEM WL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED BY UA DATA OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HRS. TEMPS WL BE IN THE U20S TO MID 30S MTNS TO MID 30S TO L40S
VALLEYS SAT...WITH ONLY 20S MTNS AND 30S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. THESE
CHILLY TEMPS WL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE ALIGNED NORTH/SOUTH VALLEYS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MID/UPPER LVL TROF SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE NE
CONUS WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY MONDAY. NEXT
WEAK SFC COLD FRNT AND NARROW RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE
APPROACHES OUR CWA ON TUES...WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS CLIMB BTWN 2C AND 4C BY 12Z TUESDAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY
LIQUID. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED LLVL COLD AIR HANGS TOUGH EAST OF
THE GREEN MTNS ON MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS HOLDING IN THE M30S
TO L40S...WHILE PARTS OF THE CPV/SLV WARM INTO THE M40S TO L50S ON
SOUTHWEST WINDS. QPF WL BE LIGHT WITH SYSTEM ON TUES < 0.25".

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WEAK SFC COLD FRNT AND ASSOCIATED RIBBON
OF MOISTURE IS PRODUCING A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM
MPV TO RUT THIS MORNING. THIS PRECIP WL BE EAST OF OUR TAF SITES
BY 14Z. OTHERWISE...OBS AT PBG/SLK THIS MORNING HAVE INDICATED
SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG WITH BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS...BUT THIS
SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT AS WINDS INCREASE. EXPECTING A BREEZY DAY WITH
SOUTHWEST/WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 30
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY BTWN 15-21Z TODAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING
AS SFC HEATING OCCURS AND SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH VFR
CONDITION. MOISTURE INCREASES THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT RAIN AND
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT SLK AFT 03Z...AS LAKE MOISTURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THRU FRIDAY AFTN. CLOUDS WL INCREASE AND LOWER BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR TAF SITES. SCATTERED RAIN WITH MTN
SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE
VALLEYS AND POTENTIAL IFR VIS/CIGS AT MPV/SLK. BRISK NORTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOP SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWERS AND
VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS/MIXED WITH SNOW ON SAT NIGHT. MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KALY 291357
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
957 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS AND THEN TO THE EAST OF THE
REGION TODAY...THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AIR MASS WILL
MOVE IN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS...BUT MAINLY IN AREAS TO THE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BAND OF SHOWERS STILL GRADUALLY BUILDING EAST...BUT CLOUDY SKY
WELL BEHIND THE SHOWERS. COLD ADVECTION SHOUDL SPREAD EAST THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT BEFORE THAT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ANOTHER
COUPLE OF DEGREES...WELL IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND A
LITTLE COOLER TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS STILL WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROF ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF
COLDER AIR TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE SHOWERS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY ACROSS OTHER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO MOCLDY SKIES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 30 TO 40 AND SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE UPPER LEVEL LOW
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MAKES ITS
WAY INTO THE REGION. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT THE
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY SHOULD GET SOME MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY AND HAVE FORECAST 40 TO 50 PERCENT POPS THERE.
ELSEWHERE...DRY TO 30 PERCENT POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM MAY GRAZE THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS
THE GENERAL MEDIUM GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FOR A COASTAL SYSTEM TO BE
OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL IMPACT...AND MODERATING TEMPS AND DRY WX IS
EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A PROGRESSIVE...DIGGING...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...AS A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.  THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND CLOSED OFF SOUTH OF THE REGION NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  SOME SCT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE SW FLOW
IN ADVANCE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IN THE VICINITY OF NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  COLDER AIR BEING DRAWN IN
FROM THE NORTH MAY CHANGE THE SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE SYNOPTIC FORCING
LOOKS WEAK AT THIS TIME.  IT WILL BE CHILLY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
U30S OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME U20S TO L30S OVER THE SRN
DACKS...ERN CATSKILLS...AND SRN GREENS.  SATURDAY...ACCORDING TO THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES/CMC GUIDANCE...THE H500 CUTOFF MOVE NORTHEAST
OF ERN NC WITH A SFC LOW PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND.
MINIMAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH SCT LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN... AS
THE OCEANIC STORM DRIFTS OUT TO SEA TOO FAR FOR A MAJOR IMPACT IN
THE ALY FCST AREA.  IT WILL BE WINDY AND COOL WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO AROUND 40F OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR
SETS UP OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE IMPRESSIVE OCEAN
CYCLONE LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR OFF THE COAST FOR A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT...BUT IT WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED TO SEE IF THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL PHASING OF THE STREAMS CAN OCCUR CLOSER TO THE
COASTLINE.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -5C TO -10C BY  DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
AFTER LOWS IN THE 20S TO L30S WITH SCT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND...COLD...BLUSTERY...AND DRY WX IS THE TREND. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO 40F IN MOST LOCATIONS.  WIDESPREAD 30S ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH SOME U20S OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM...AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPS GRADUALLY MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL READINGS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH RIDGES IN FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND DRIFTS OFFSHORE...WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  HIGHS ON
TUESDAY REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M40S TO
AROUND 50F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME SHOWERS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SOME SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE MOVED INTO KGFL AND
KALB BTWN PRIOR TO 12Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THESE LOCATIONS. THE SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE AT KPSF BTWN 12Z-15Z...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL 17Z-18Z. A
LONGER SUSTAINED PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS IS LIKELY THERE. KPOU
WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARDS 14Z...AND THERE
IS THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS BTWN 16Z-18Z.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT....KEEPING THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND WEST.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM AT KGFL..KPOU...AND KPSF THIS
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO W AT 5-10 KTS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT THE WINDS TO VEER TO THE W TO NW
AT 10 KTS OR LEES BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND DIMINISH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS AND THEN EXIT THE REGION
TODAY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TODAY 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT.

THE RH VALUES WILL 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RISE TO 80
TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS DESPITE THE
SHOWERS TODAY ALONG A COLD FRONT. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE IN
THE TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH RANGE.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MOST OF THE HSA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KBTV 291146
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
746 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT TODAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RESIDE OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING COOLER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 746 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING RAIN
SHOWERS STREAMING NORTHEAST FROM NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. MODELS HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
VERMONT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 436 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...INITIAL BATCH OF
RAIN SHOWERS STARTING TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MORE SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARD EASTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. MODELS PICK UP ON
THIS MOISTURE...SO HAVE KEPT IN CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT TODAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND MOST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES HAVE
STAYED UP OVERNIGHT...SO ANOTHER FAIRLY MILD DAY FOR LATE OCTOBER
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...WITH HIGHS TODAY FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 436 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A
SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY...WITH CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...MAINLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR RAIN SHOWERS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER
LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WL RESULT IN MUCH BLW NORMAL TEMPS
THIS WEEKEND ACRS OUR CWA...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE MTNS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF TROF AND TRACK OF SFC LOW PRES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SAT INTO SUNDAY...BUT STILL FEEL A FEW MORE SHIFTS
ARE LIKELY GIVEN TIME PERIOD IS STILL 84 TO 96 HRS AWAY AND S/W
DISTURBANCE OF INTEREST IS LOCATED OVER AN AREA WHICH IS POORLY
SAMPLED BY UA DATA.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT DROPS ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...AND HELPS DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION OVER NW
NORTH CAROLINA BY 12Z SAT. THIS TIGHT/SMALL CIRCULATION WL SHIFT
EAST ON SATURDAY...AND HELP ENHANCE SFC LOW PRES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR
S/W ENERGY AND CLOSED CIRCULATION TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WHILE SFC
LOW PRES DEVELOPS FURTHER OFF THE COAST...RESULTING IN LESS
OVERALL MOISTURE/QPF ACRS OUR CWA. HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOWS
SOME 850 TO 500MB RH IN TROF AXIS ACRS OUR FA...ALONG WITH
DEVELOPING NORTHERLY WINDS. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN
-8 AND -10C...MOVING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPS IN THE MID
50S WL RESULT IN SOME LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY. WL CONT TO
MENTION LIKELY POPS FOR NORTHERN NY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH INITIAL
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. WL SPREAD THESE
HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS INTO VT MTNS ON SATURDAY...BEFORE
TAPERING BACK BY SUNDAY...AS DRIER AIR DEVELOPS. STILL THINKING A
DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES WL BE LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND ACRS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN NY AND VT.

ECMWF CONTS TO SHOW SOME SUPPORT FOR SECONDARY 5H VORT CAPTURING
SYSTEM SOON ENOUGH AND PULLING MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. IF THIS SCENARIO WAS TO HAPPEN...HIGHER
POPS WOULD BE NEEDED ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AND EASTERN VT ZNS ON
SUNDAY. ALSO...ANY SHIFT TWD THE SNE COAST WOULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE PRECIP ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN
SECTIONS...WHICH WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY AS
SYSTEM WL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED BY UA DATA OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HRS. TEMPS WL BE IN THE U20S TO MID 30S MTNS TO MID 30S TO L40S
VALLEYS SAT...WITH ONLY 20S MTNS AND 30S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. THESE
CHILLY TEMPS WL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE ALIGNED NORTH/SOUTH VALLEYS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MID/UPPER LVL TROF SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE NE
CONUS WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY MONDAY. NEXT
WEAK SFC COLD FRNT AND NARROW RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE
APPROACHES OUR CWA ON TUES...WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS CLIMB BTWN 2C AND 4C BY 12Z TUESDAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY
LIQUID. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED LLVL COLD AIR HANGS TOUGH EAST OF
THE GREEN MTNS ON MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS HOLDING IN THE M30S
TO L40S...WHILE PARTS OF THE CPV/SLV WARM INTO THE M40S TO L50S ON
SOUTHWEST WINDS. QPF WL BE LIGHT WITH SYSTEM ON TUES < 0.25".

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WEAK SFC COLD FRNT AND ASSOCIATED RIBBON
OF MOISTURE IS PRODUCING A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM
MPV TO RUT THIS MORNING. THIS PRECIP WL BE EAST OF OUR TAF SITES
BY 14Z. OTHERWISE...OBS AT PBG/SLK THIS MORNING HAVE INDICATED
SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG WITH BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS...BUT THIS
SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT AS WINDS INCREASE. EXPECTING A BREEZY DAY WITH
SOUTHWEST/WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 30
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY BTWN 15-21Z TODAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING
AS SFC HEATING OCCURS AND SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH VFR
CONDITION. MOISTURE INCREASES THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT RAIN AND
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT SLK AFT 03Z...AS LAKE MOISTURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THRU FRIDAY AFTN. CLOUDS WL INCREASE AND LOWER BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR TAF SITES. SCATTERED RAIN WITH MTN
SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE
VALLEYS AND POTENTIAL IFR VIS/CIGS AT MPV/SLK. BRISK NORTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOP SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWERS AND
VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS/MIXED WITH SNOW ON SAT NIGHT. MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 291132
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
732 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT TODAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RESIDE OVER THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING COOLER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 436 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...INITIAL BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS
STARTING TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MORE SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARD EASTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. MODELS PICK UP ON
THIS MOISTURE...SO HAVE KEPT IN CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT TODAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND MOST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES HAVE
STAYED UP OVERNIGHT...SO ANOTHER FAIRLY MILD DAY FOR LATE OCTOBER
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...WITH HIGHS TODAY FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 436 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A
SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY...WITH CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...MAINLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR RAIN SHOWERS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER
LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WL RESULT IN MUCH BLW NORMAL TEMPS
THIS WEEKEND ACRS OUR CWA...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE MTNS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF TROF AND TRACK OF SFC LOW PRES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SAT INTO SUNDAY...BUT STILL FEEL A FEW MORE SHIFTS
ARE LIKELY GIVEN TIME PERIOD IS STILL 84 TO 96 HRS AWAY AND S/W
DISTURBANCE OF INTEREST IS LOCATED OVER AN AREA WHICH IS POORLY
SAMPLED BY UA DATA.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT DROPS ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...AND HELPS DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION OVER NW
NORTH CAROLINA BY 12Z SAT. THIS TIGHT/SMALL CIRCULATION WL SHIFT
EAST ON SATURDAY...AND HELP ENHANCE SFC LOW PRES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR
S/W ENERGY AND CLOSED CIRCULATION TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WHILE SFC
LOW PRES DEVELOPS FURTHER OFF THE COAST...RESULTING IN LESS
OVERALL MOISTURE/QPF ACRS OUR CWA. HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOWS
SOME 850 TO 500MB RH IN TROF AXIS ACRS OUR FA...ALONG WITH
DEVELOPING NORTHERLY WINDS. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN
-8 AND -10C...MOVING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPS IN THE MID
50S WL RESULT IN SOME LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY. WL CONT TO
MENTION LIKELY POPS FOR NORTHERN NY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH INITIAL
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. WL SPREAD THESE
HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS INTO VT MTNS ON SATURDAY...BEFORE
TAPERING BACK BY SUNDAY...AS DRIER AIR DEVELOPS. STILL THINKING A
DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES WL BE LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND ACRS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN NY AND VT.

ECMWF CONTS TO SHOW SOME SUPPORT FOR SECONDARY 5H VORT CAPTURING
SYSTEM SOON ENOUGH AND PULLING MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. IF THIS SCENARIO WAS TO HAPPEN...HIGHER
POPS WOULD BE NEEDED ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AND EASTERN VT ZNS ON
SUNDAY. ALSO...ANY SHIFT TWD THE SNE COAST WOULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE PRECIP ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN
SECTIONS...WHICH WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY AS
SYSTEM WL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED BY UA DATA OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HRS. TEMPS WL BE IN THE U20S TO MID 30S MTNS TO MID 30S TO L40S
VALLEYS SAT...WITH ONLY 20S MTNS AND 30S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. THESE
CHILLY TEMPS WL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE ALIGNED NORTH/SOUTH VALLEYS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MID/UPPER LVL TROF SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE NE
CONUS WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY MONDAY. NEXT
WEAK SFC COLD FRNT AND NARROW RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE
APPROACHES OUR CWA ON TUES...WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS CLIMB BTWN 2C AND 4C BY 12Z TUESDAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY
LIQUID. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED LLVL COLD AIR HANGS TOUGH EAST OF
THE GREEN MTNS ON MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS HOLDING IN THE M30S
TO L40S...WHILE PARTS OF THE CPV/SLV WARM INTO THE M40S TO L50S ON
SOUTHWEST WINDS. QPF WL BE LIGHT WITH SYSTEM ON TUES < 0.25".

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...WEAK SFC COLD FRNT AND ASSOCIATED RIBBON
OF MOISTURE IS PRODUCING A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM
MPV TO RUT THIS MORNING. THIS PRECIP WL BE EAST OF OUR TAF SITES
BY 14Z. OTHERWISE...OBS AT PBG/SLK THIS MORNING HAVE INDICATED
SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG WITH BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS...BUT THIS
SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT AS WINDS INCREASE. EXPECTING A BREEZY DAY WITH
SOUTHWEST/WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 30
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY BTWN 15-21Z TODAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING
AS SFC HEATING OCCURS AND SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH VFR
CONDITION. MOISTURE INCREASES THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT RAIN AND
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT SLK AFT 03Z...AS LAKE MOISTURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THRU FRIDAY AFTN. CLOUDS WL INCREASE AND LOWER BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR TAF SITES. SCATTERED RAIN WITH MTN
SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE
VALLEYS AND POTENTIAL IFR VIS/CIGS AT MPV/SLK. BRISK NORTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOP SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWERS AND
VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS/MIXED WITH SNOW ON SAT NIGHT. MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KALY 291102
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
702 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS AND THEN TO THE EAST OF THE
REGION TODAY...THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AIR MASS WILL
MOVE IN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS...BUT MAINLY IN AREAS TO THE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM...A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WAS FROM THE SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS...TO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT...
WITH THE SHOWERS GENERALLY MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS BAND SHOULD SLOWLY
SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND NOT EXIT THE EXTREME SE PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE TODAY. HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS ALONG
THIS BAND AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
A LITTLE COOLER TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS STILL WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROF ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF
COLDER AIR TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE SHOWERS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY ACROSS OTHER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO MOCLDY SKIES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 30 TO 40 AND SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE UPPER LEVEL LOW
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MAKES ITS
WAY INTO THE REGION. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT THE
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY SHOULD GET SOME MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY AND HAVE FORECAST 40 TO 50 PERCENT POPS THERE.
ELSEWHERE...DRY TO 30 PERCENT POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM MAY GRAZE THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS
THE GENERAL MEDIUM GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FOR A COASTAL SYSTEM TO BE
OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL IMPACT...AND MODERATING TEMPS AND DRY WX IS
EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A PROGRESSIVE...DIGGING...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...AS A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.  THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND CLOSED OFF SOUTH OF THE REGION NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  SOME SCT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE SW FLOW
IN ADVANCE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IN THE VICINITY OF NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  COLDER AIR BEING DRAWN IN
FROM THE NORTH MAY CHANGE THE SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE SYNOPTIC FORCING
LOOKS WEAK AT THIS TIME.  IT WILL BE CHILLY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
U30S OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME U20S TO L30S OVER THE SRN
DACKS...ERN CATSKILLS...AND SRN GREENS.  SATURDAY...ACCORDING TO THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES/CMC GUIDANCE...THE H500 CUTOFF MOVE NORTHEAST
OF ERN NC WITH A SFC LOW PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND.
MINIMAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH SCT LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN... AS
THE OCEANIC STORM DRIFTS OUT TO SEA TOO FAR FOR A MAJOR IMPACT IN
THE ALY FCST AREA.  IT WILL BE WINDY AND COOL WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO AROUND 40F OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR
SETS UP OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE IMPRESSIVE OCEAN
CYCLONE LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR OFF THE COAST FOR A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT...BUT IT WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED TO SEE IF THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL PHASING OF THE STREAMS CAN OCCUR CLOSER TO THE
COASTLINE.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -5C TO -10C BY  DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
AFTER LOWS IN THE 20S TO L30S WITH SCT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND...COLD...BLUSTERY...AND DRY WX IS THE TREND. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO 40F IN MOST LOCATIONS.  WIDESPREAD 30S ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH SOME U20S OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM...AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPS GRADUALLY MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL READINGS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH RIDGES IN FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND DRIFTS OFFSHORE...WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  HIGHS ON
TUESDAY REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M40S TO
AROUND 50F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME SHOWERS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SOME SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE MOVED INTO KGFL AND
KALB BTWN PRIOR TO 12Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THESE LOCATIONS. THE SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE AT KPSF BTWN 12Z-15Z...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL 17Z-18Z. A
LONGER SUSTAINED PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS IS LIKELY THERE. KPOU
WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARDS 14Z...AND THERE
IS THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS BTWN 16Z-18Z.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT....KEEPING THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND WEST.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM AT KGFL..KPOU...AND KPSF THIS
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO W AT 5-10 KTS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT THE WINDS TO VEER TO THE W TO NW
AT 10 KTS OR LEES BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND DIMINISH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS AND THEN EXIT THE REGION
TODAY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TODAY 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT.

THE RH VALUES WILL 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RISE TO 80
TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS DESPITE THE
SHOWERS TODAY ALONG A COLD FRONT. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE IN
THE TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH RANGE.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MOST OF THE HSA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 291037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
637 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS AND THEN TO THE EAST OF THE
REGION TODAY...THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AIR MASS WILL
MOVE IN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS...BUT MAINLY IN AREAS TO THE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 615 AM...A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WAS FROM THE SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS...TO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT...
WITH THE SHOWERS GENERALLY MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS BAND SHOULD SLOWLY
SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND NOT EXIT THE EXTREME SE PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE TODAY. HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS ALONG
THIS BAND AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
A LITTLE COOLER TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS STILL WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROF ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF
COLDER AIR TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE SHOWERS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY ACROSS OTHER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO MOCLDY SKIES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 30 TO 40 AND SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE UPPER LEVEL LOW
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MAKES ITS
WAY INTO THE REGION. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT THE
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY SHOULD GET SOME MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY AND HAVE FORECAST 40 TO 50 PERCENT POPS THERE.
ELSEWHERE...DRY TO 30 PERCENT POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM MAY GRAZE THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS
THE GENERAL MEDIUM GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FOR A COASTAL SYSTEM TO BE
OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL IMPACT...AND MODERATING TEMPS AND DRY WX IS
EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A PROGRESSIVE...DIGGING...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...AS A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.  THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND CLOSED OFF SOUTH OF THE REGION NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  SOME SCT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE SW FLOW
IN ADVANCE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IN THE VICINITY OF NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  COLDER AIR BEING DRAWN IN
FROM THE NORTH MAY CHANGE THE SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE SYNOPTIC FORCING
LOOKS WEAK AT THIS TIME.  IT WILL BE CHILLY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
U30S OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME U20S TO L30S OVER THE SRN
DACKS...ERN CATSKILLS...AND SRN GREENS.  SATURDAY...ACCORDING TO THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES/CMC GUIDANCE...THE H500 CUTOFF MOVE NORTHEAST
OF ERN NC WITH A SFC LOW PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND.
MINIMAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH SCT LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN... AS
THE OCEANIC STORM DRIFTS OUT TO SEA TOO FAR FOR A MAJOR IMPACT IN
THE ALY FCST AREA.  IT WILL BE WINDY AND COOL WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO AROUND 40F OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR
SETS UP OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE IMPRESSIVE OCEAN
CYCLONE LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR OFF THE COAST FOR A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT...BUT IT WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED TO SEE IF THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL PHASING OF THE STREAMS CAN OCCUR CLOSER TO THE
COASTLINE.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -5C TO -10C BY  DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
AFTER LOWS IN THE 20S TO L30S WITH SCT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND...COLD...BLUSTERY...AND DRY WX IS THE TREND. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO 40F IN MOST LOCATIONS.  WIDESPREAD 30S ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH SOME U20S OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM...AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPS GRADUALLY MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL READINGS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH RIDGES IN FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND DRIFTS OFFSHORE...WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  HIGHS ON
TUESDAY REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M40S TO
AROUND 50F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME SHOWERS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE E-CNTRL NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS.  SOME SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE INTO KGFL AND KALB BTWN
08Z-12Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE LOCATIONS. THE SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT KPSF
BTWN 08Z-12Z...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL 17Z-18Z. A LONGER SUSTAINED
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS IS LIKELY THERE. KPOU WILL SEE AN INCREASE
IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARDS 12Z...AND THERE IS THE THREAT OF A FEW
SHOWERS BTWN 15Z-19Z.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT....KEEPING THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND WEST.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM AT KGFL..KPOU...AND KPSF THIS
MORNING...BUT A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE AT KALB IN THE 5-10
KT RANGE. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO W AT 5-10 KTS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT THE WINDS TO VEER TO THE W TO NW
AT 10 KTS OR LEES BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND DIMINISH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS AND THEN EXIT THE REGION
TODAY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TODAY 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT.

THE RH VALUES WILL 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RISE TO 80
TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS DESPITE THE
SHOWERS TODAY ALONG A COLD FRONT. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE IN
THE TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH RANGE.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MOST OF THE HSA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM














000
FXUS61 KALY 291037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
637 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS AND THEN TO THE EAST OF THE
REGION TODAY...THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AIR MASS WILL
MOVE IN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS...BUT MAINLY IN AREAS TO THE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 615 AM...A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WAS FROM THE SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS...TO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT...
WITH THE SHOWERS GENERALLY MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS BAND SHOULD SLOWLY
SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND NOT EXIT THE EXTREME SE PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE TODAY. HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS ALONG
THIS BAND AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
A LITTLE COOLER TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS STILL WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROF ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF
COLDER AIR TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE SHOWERS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY ACROSS OTHER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO MOCLDY SKIES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 30 TO 40 AND SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE UPPER LEVEL LOW
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MAKES ITS
WAY INTO THE REGION. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT THE
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY SHOULD GET SOME MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY AND HAVE FORECAST 40 TO 50 PERCENT POPS THERE.
ELSEWHERE...DRY TO 30 PERCENT POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM MAY GRAZE THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS
THE GENERAL MEDIUM GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FOR A COASTAL SYSTEM TO BE
OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL IMPACT...AND MODERATING TEMPS AND DRY WX IS
EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A PROGRESSIVE...DIGGING...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...AS A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.  THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND CLOSED OFF SOUTH OF THE REGION NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  SOME SCT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE SW FLOW
IN ADVANCE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IN THE VICINITY OF NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  COLDER AIR BEING DRAWN IN
FROM THE NORTH MAY CHANGE THE SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE SYNOPTIC FORCING
LOOKS WEAK AT THIS TIME.  IT WILL BE CHILLY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
U30S OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME U20S TO L30S OVER THE SRN
DACKS...ERN CATSKILLS...AND SRN GREENS.  SATURDAY...ACCORDING TO THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES/CMC GUIDANCE...THE H500 CUTOFF MOVE NORTHEAST
OF ERN NC WITH A SFC LOW PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND.
MINIMAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH SCT LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN... AS
THE OCEANIC STORM DRIFTS OUT TO SEA TOO FAR FOR A MAJOR IMPACT IN
THE ALY FCST AREA.  IT WILL BE WINDY AND COOL WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO AROUND 40F OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR
SETS UP OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE IMPRESSIVE OCEAN
CYCLONE LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR OFF THE COAST FOR A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT...BUT IT WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED TO SEE IF THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL PHASING OF THE STREAMS CAN OCCUR CLOSER TO THE
COASTLINE.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -5C TO -10C BY  DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
AFTER LOWS IN THE 20S TO L30S WITH SCT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND...COLD...BLUSTERY...AND DRY WX IS THE TREND. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO 40F IN MOST LOCATIONS.  WIDESPREAD 30S ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH SOME U20S OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM...AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPS GRADUALLY MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL READINGS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH RIDGES IN FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND DRIFTS OFFSHORE...WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  HIGHS ON
TUESDAY REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M40S TO
AROUND 50F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME SHOWERS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE E-CNTRL NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS.  SOME SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE INTO KGFL AND KALB BTWN
08Z-12Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE LOCATIONS. THE SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT KPSF
BTWN 08Z-12Z...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL 17Z-18Z. A LONGER SUSTAINED
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS IS LIKELY THERE. KPOU WILL SEE AN INCREASE
IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARDS 12Z...AND THERE IS THE THREAT OF A FEW
SHOWERS BTWN 15Z-19Z.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT....KEEPING THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND WEST.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM AT KGFL..KPOU...AND KPSF THIS
MORNING...BUT A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE AT KALB IN THE 5-10
KT RANGE. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO W AT 5-10 KTS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT THE WINDS TO VEER TO THE W TO NW
AT 10 KTS OR LEES BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND DIMINISH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS AND THEN EXIT THE REGION
TODAY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TODAY 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT.

THE RH VALUES WILL 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RISE TO 80
TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS DESPITE THE
SHOWERS TODAY ALONG A COLD FRONT. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE IN
THE TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH RANGE.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MOST OF THE HSA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM














000
FXUS61 KALY 290912
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
512 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS AND THEN TO THE EAST OF THE
REGION TODAY...THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AIR MASS WILL
MOVE IN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS...BUT MAINLY IN AREAS TO THE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 445 AM...A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED FROM NORTHEAST
PA TO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...WITH THE SHOWERS GENERALLY MOVING
NORTHEAST. THIS BAND SHOULD SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY...AND NOT EXIT THE EXTREME SE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
LATE TODAY. HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS ALONG THIS BAND AS IT SLOWLY
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND A LITTLE COOLER TODAY
AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S
TO MID 60S...WHICH IS STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROF ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF
COLDER AIR TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE SHOWERS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY ACROSS OTHER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO MOCLDY SKIES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 30 TO 40 AND SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE UPPER LEVEL LOW
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MAKES ITS
WAY INTO THE REGION. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT THE
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY SHOULD GET SOME MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY AND HAVE FORECAST 40 TO 50 PERCENT POPS THERE.
ELSEWHERE...DRY TO 30 PERCENT POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STORM SYSTEM MAY GRAZE THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS
THE GENERAL MEDIUM GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS FOR A COASTAL SYSTEM TO BE
OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL IMPACT...AND MODERATING TEMPS AND DRY WX IS
EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A PROGRESSIVE...DIGGING...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...AS A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.  THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND CLOSED OFF SOUTH OF THE REGION NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES.  SOME SCT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE SW FLOW
IN ADVANCE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IN THE VICINITY OF NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  COLDER AIR BEING DRAWN IN
FROM THE NORTH MAY CHANGE THE SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN
DACKS...AND SRN GREENS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE SYNOPTIC FORCING
LOOKS WEAK AT THIS TIME.  IT WILL BE CHILLY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
U30S OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME U20S TO L30S OVER THE SRN
DACKS...ERN CATSKILLS...AND SRN GREENS.  SATURDAY...ACCORDING TO THE
GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES/CMC GUIDANCE...THE H500 CUTOFF MOVE NORTHEAST
OF ERN NC WITH A SFC LOW PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND.
MINIMAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH SCT LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN... AS
THE OCEANIC STORM DRIFTS OUT TO SEA TOO FAR FOR A MAJOR IMPACT IN
THE ALY FCST AREA.  IT WILL BE WINDY AND COOL WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO AROUND 40F OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR
SETS UP OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE IMPRESSIVE OCEAN
CYCLONE LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR OFF THE COAST FOR A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT...BUT IT WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED TO SEE IF THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL PHASING OF THE STREAMS CAN OCCUR CLOSER TO THE
COASTLINE.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -5C TO -10C BY  DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
AFTER LOWS IN THE 20S TO L30S WITH SCT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND...COLD...BLUSTERY...AND DRY WX IS THE TREND. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO 40F IN MOST LOCATIONS.  WIDESPREAD 30S ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH SOME U20S OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM...AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPS GRADUALLY MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL READINGS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH RIDGES IN FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AND DRIFTS OFFSHORE...WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  HIGHS ON
TUESDAY REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M40S TO
AROUND 50F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME SHOWERS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE E-CNTRL NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS.  SOME SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE INTO KGFL AND KALB BTWN
08Z-12Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE LOCATIONS. THE SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT KPSF
BTWN 08Z-12Z...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL 17Z-18Z. A LONGER SUSTAINED
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS IS LIKELY THERE. KPOU WILL SEE AN INCREASE
IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARDS 12Z...AND THERE IS THE THREAT OF A FEW
SHOWERS BTWN 15Z-19Z.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT....KEEPING THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND WEST.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM AT KGFL..KPOU...AND KPSF THIS
MORNING...BUT A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE AT KALB IN THE 5-10
KT RANGE. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO W AT 5-10 KTS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT THE WINDS TO VEER TO THE W TO NW
AT 10 KTS OR LEES BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND DIMINISH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS AND THEN EXIT THE REGION
TODAY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TODAY 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT.

THE RH VALUES WILL 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RISE TO 80
TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS DESPITE THE
SHOWERS TODAY ALONG A COLD FRONT. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE IN
THE TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH RANGE.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MOST OF THE HSA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA











000
FXUS61 KBTV 290836
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
436 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT TODAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RESIDE OVER THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING COOLER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 436 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...INITIAL BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS
STARTING TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MORE SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARD EASTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. MODELS PICK UP ON
THIS MOISTURE...SO HAVE KEPT IN CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT TODAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND MOST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES HAVE
STAYED UP OVERNIGHT...SO ANOTHER FAIRLY MILD DAY FOR LATE OCTOBER
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...WITH HIGHS TODAY FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 436 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A
SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY...WITH CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...MAINLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR RAIN SHOWERS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER
LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WL RESULT IN MUCH BLW NORMAL TEMPS
THIS WEEKEND ACRS OUR CWA...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE MTNS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF TROF AND TRACK OF SFC LOW PRES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SAT INTO SUNDAY...BUT STILL FEEL A FEW MORE SHIFTS
ARE LIKELY GIVEN TIME PERIOD IS STILL 84 TO 96 HRS AWAY AND S/W
DISTURBANCE OF INTEREST IS LOCATED OVER AN AREA WHICH IS POORLY
SAMPLED BY UA DATA.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT DROPS ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...AND HELPS DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION OVER NW
NORTH CAROLINA BY 12Z SAT. THIS TIGHT/SMALL CIRCULATION WL SHIFT
EAST ON SATURDAY...AND HELP ENHANCE SFC LOW PRES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR
S/W ENERGY AND CLOSED CIRCULATION TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WHILE SFC
LOW PRES DEVELOPS FURTHER OFF THE COAST...RESULTING IN LESS
OVERALL MOISTURE/QPF ACRS OUR CWA. HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOWS
SOME 850 TO 500MB RH IN TROF AXIS ACRS OUR FA...ALONG WITH
DEVELOPING NORTHERLY WINDS. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN
-8 AND -10C...MOVING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPS IN THE MID
50S WL RESULT IN SOME LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY. WL CONT TO
MENTION LIKELY POPS FOR NORTHERN NY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH INITIAL
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. WL SPREAD THESE
HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS INTO VT MTNS ON SATURDAY...BEFORE
TAPERING BACK BY SUNDAY...AS DRIER AIR DEVELOPS. STILL THINKING A
DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES WL BE LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND ACRS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN NY AND VT.

ECMWF CONTS TO SHOW SOME SUPPORT FOR SECONDARY 5H VORT CAPTURING
SYSTEM SOON ENOUGH AND PULLING MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. IF THIS SCENARIO WAS TO HAPPEN...HIGHER
POPS WOULD BE NEEDED ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AND EASTERN VT ZNS ON
SUNDAY. ALSO...ANY SHIFT TWD THE SNE COAST WOULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE PRECIP ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN
SECTIONS...WHICH WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY AS
SYSTEM WL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED BY UA DATA OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HRS. TEMPS WL BE IN THE U20S TO MID 30S MTNS TO MID 30S TO L40S
VALLEYS SAT...WITH ONLY 20S MTNS AND 30S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. THESE
CHILLY TEMPS WL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE ALIGNED NORTH/SOUTH VALLEYS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MID/UPPER LVL TROF SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE NE
CONUS WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY MONDAY. NEXT
WEAK SFC COLD FRNT AND NARROW RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE
APPROACHES OUR CWA ON TUES...WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS CLIMB BTWN 2C AND 4C BY 12Z TUESDAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY
LIQUID. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED LLVL COLD AIR HANGS TOUGH EAST OF
THE GREEN MTNS ON MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS HOLDING IN THE M30S
TO L40S...WHILE PARTS OF THE CPV/SLV WARM INTO THE M40S TO L50S ON
SOUTHWEST WINDS. QPF WL BE LIGHT WITH SYSTEM ON TUES < 0.25".

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WEAK SFC COLD FRNT AND ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF
MOISTURE IS PRODUCING A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING. OBS SHOW MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR OCCURRING AT SLK ASSOCIATED WITH A
HEAVIER DOWNPOUR. WL USE TEMPO GROUP BTWN 06-10Z TO COVER BAND OF
RAIN MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
BRIEF IFR CIGS/VIS WL BE POSSIBLE AT SLK BTWN 06-09Z...PER OBS AND
LATEST SOUNDING DATA. OTHERWISE...RAIN BAND SHIFTS EAST OF OUR
REGION BY 10Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WL DEVELOP BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TODAY WITH GUSTS BTWN 15 AND
20 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SW TO NE ALIGNED SLV...IMPACTING THE
MSS TAF SITE.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU FRIDAY AFTN. CLOUDS WL INCREASE AND
LOWER BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR TAF SITES.
SCATTERED RAIN WITH MTN SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS AND POTENTIAL IFR VIS/CIGS
AT MPV/SLK. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH
SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWERS AND VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS/MIXED WITH
SNOW ON SAT NIGHT. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 290753
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RESIDE OVER THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 147 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATION.
HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WESTWARD OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE LOWERED SOME TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES OVER EASTERN VERMONT. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING RAIN
SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST
VERMONT AT THIS TIME. CURRENT FORECAST FOR RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
LOOKS GOOD...SO NO CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA AND WEAKENS FURTHER. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT LITTLE IN WAY OF
CLEARING ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
UP...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. GENERAL
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MAY PRODUCE A
LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. TEMPS TRENDING COLDER WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER
LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WL RESULT IN MUCH BLW NORMAL TEMPS
THIS WEEKEND ACRS OUR CWA...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE MTNS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF TROF AND TRACK OF SFC LOW PRES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SAT INTO SUNDAY...BUT STILL FEEL A FEW MORE SHIFTS
ARE LIKELY GIVEN TIME PERIOD IS STILL 84 TO 96 HRS AWAY AND S/W
DISTURBANCE OF INTEREST IS LOCATED OVER AN AREA WHICH IS POORLY
SAMPLED BY UA DATA.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT DROPS ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...AND HELPS DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION OVER NW
NORTH CAROLINA BY 12Z SAT. THIS TIGHT/SMALL CIRCULATION WL SHIFT
EAST ON SATURDAY...AND HELP ENHANCE SFC LOW PRES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR
S/W ENERGY AND CLOSED CIRCULATION TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WHILE SFC
LOW PRES DEVELOPS FURTHER OFF THE COAST...RESULTING IN LESS
OVERALL MOISTURE/QPF ACRS OUR CWA. HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOWS
SOME 850 TO 500MB RH IN TROF AXIS ACRS OUR FA...ALONG WITH
DEVELOPING NORTHERLY WINDS. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN
-8 AND -10C...MOVING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPS IN THE MID
50S WL RESULT IN SOME LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY. WL CONT TO
MENTION LIKELY POPS FOR NORTHERN NY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH INITIAL
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. WL SPREAD THESE
HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS INTO VT MTNS ON SATURDAY...BEFORE
TAPERING BACK BY SUNDAY...AS DRIER AIR DEVELOPS. STILL THINKING A
DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES WL BE LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND ACRS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN NY AND VT.

ECMWF CONTS TO SHOW SOME SUPPORT FOR SECONDARY 5H VORT CAPTURING
SYSTEM SOON ENOUGH AND PULLING MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. IF THIS SCENARIO WAS TO HAPPEN...HIGHER
POPS WOULD BE NEEDED ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AND EASTERN VT ZNS ON
SUNDAY. ALSO...ANY SHIFT TWD THE SNE COAST WOULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE PRECIP ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN
SECTIONS...WHICH WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY AS
SYSTEM WL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED BY UA DATA OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HRS. TEMPS WL BE IN THE U20S TO MID 30S MTNS TO MID 30S TO L40S
VALLEYS SAT...WITH ONLY 20S MTNS AND 30S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. THESE
CHILLY TEMPS WL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE ALIGNED NORTH/SOUTH VALLEYS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MID/UPPER LVL TROF SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE NE
CONUS WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY MONDAY. NEXT
WEAK SFC COLD FRNT AND NARROW RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE
APPROACHES OUR CWA ON TUES...WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS CLIMB BTWN 2C AND 4C BY 12Z TUESDAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY
LIQUID. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED LLVL COLD AIR HANGS TOUGH EAST OF
THE GREEN MTNS ON MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS HOLDING IN THE M30S
TO L40S...WHILE PARTS OF THE CPV/SLV WARM INTO THE M40S TO L50S ON
SOUTHWEST WINDS. QPF WL BE LIGHT WITH SYSTEM ON TUES < 0.25".

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WEAK SFC COLD FRNT AND ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF
MOISTURE IS PRODUCING A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING. OBS SHOW MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR OCCURRING AT SLK ASSOCIATED WITH A
HEAVIER DOWNPOUR. WL USE TEMPO GROUP BTWN 06-10Z TO COVER BAND OF
RAIN MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
BRIEF IFR CIGS/VIS WL BE POSSIBLE AT SLK BTWN 06-09Z...PER OBS AND
LATEST SOUNDING DATA. OTHERWISE...RAIN BAND SHIFTS EAST OF OUR
REGION BY 10Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WL DEVELOP BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TODAY WITH GUSTS BTWN 15 AND
20 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SW TO NE ALIGNED SLV...IMPACTING THE
MSS TAF SITE.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU FRIDAY AFTN. CLOUDS WL INCREASE AND
LOWER BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR TAF SITES.
SCATTERED RAIN WITH MTN SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS AND POTENTIAL IFR VIS/CIGS
AT MPV/SLK. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH
SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWERS AND VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS/MIXED WITH
SNOW ON SAT NIGHT. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS OF 15
TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE
BROAD LAKE...HIGHEST ON THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
LAKE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE A BIT TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...WGH/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 290752
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
352 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RESIDE OVER THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 147 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATION.
HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WESTWARD OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE LOWERED SOME TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES OVER EASTERN VERMONT. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING RAIN
SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST
VERMONT AT THIS TIME. CURRENT FORECAST FOR RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
LOOKS GOOD...SO NO CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA AND WEAKENS FURTHER. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT LITTLE IN WAY OF
CLEARING ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
UP...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. GENERAL
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MAY PRODUCE A
LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. TEMPS TRENDING COLDER WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT TUESDAY...A DEVELOPING FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER
LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS WL RESULT IN MUCH BLW NORMAL TEMPS
THIS WEEKEND ACRS OUR CWA...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE MTNS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF TROF AND TRACK OF SFC LOW PRES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SAT INTO SUNDAY...BUT STILL FEEL A FEW MORE SHIFTS
ARE LIKELY GIVEN TIME PERIOD IS STILL 84 TO 96 HRS AWAY AND S/W
DISTURBANCE OF INTEREST IS LOCATED OVER AN AREA WHICH IS POORLY
SAMPLED BY UA DATA.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...POTENT 5H VORT DROPS ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...AND HELPS DEVELOP A CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION OVER NW
NORTH CAROLINA BY 12Z SAT. THIS TIGHT/SMALL CIRCULATION WL SHIFT
EAST ON SATURDAY...AND HELP ENHANCE SFC LOW PRES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR
S/W ENERGY AND CLOSED CIRCULATION TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WHILE SFC
LOW PRES DEVELOPS FURTHER OFF THE COAST...RESULTING IN LESS
OVERALL MOISTURE/QPF ACRS OUR CWA. HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOWS
SOME 850 TO 500MB RH IN TROF AXIS ACRS OUR FA...ALONG WITH
DEVELOPING NORTHERLY WINDS. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN
-8 AND -10C...MOVING OVER LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPS IN THE MID
50S WL RESULT IN SOME LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY. WL CONT TO
MENTION LIKELY POPS FOR NORTHERN NY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH INITIAL
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. WL SPREAD THESE
HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS INTO VT MTNS ON SATURDAY...BEFORE
TAPERING BACK BY SUNDAY...AS DRIER AIR DEVELOPS. STILL THINKING A
DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES WL BE LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND ACRS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN NY AND VT.

ECMWF CONTS TO SHOW SOME SUPPORT FOR SECONDARY 5H VORT CAPTURING
SYSTEM SOON ENOUGH AND PULLING MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. IF THIS SCENARIO WAS TO HAPPEN...HIGHER
POPS WOULD BE NEEDED ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AND EASTERN VT ZNS ON
SUNDAY. ALSO...ANY SHIFT TWD THE SNE COAST WOULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE PRECIP ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN
SECTIONS...WHICH WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY AS
SYSTEM WL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED BY UA DATA OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HRS. TEMPS WL BE IN THE U20S TO MID 30S MTNS TO MID 30S TO L40S
VALLEYS SAT...WITH ONLY 20S MTNS AND 30S VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. THESE
CHILLY TEMPS WL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE ALIGNED NORTH/SOUTH VALLEYS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MID/UPPER LVL TROF SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE NE
CONUS WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY MONDAY. NEXT
WEAK SFC COLD FRNT AND NARROW RIBBON OF MID LVL MOISTURE
APPROACHES OUR CWA ON TUES...WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS CLIMB BTWN 2C AND 4C BY 12Z TUESDAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY
LIQUID. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED LLVL COLD AIR HANGS TOUGH EAST OF
THE GREEN MTNS ON MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS HOLDING IN THE M30S
TO L40S...WHILE PARTS OF THE CPV/SLV WARM INTO THE M40S TO L50S ON
SOUTHWEST WINDS. QPF WL BE LIGHT WITH SYSTEM ON TUES < 0.25".

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WEAK SFC COLD FRNT AND ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF
MOISTURE IS PRODUCING A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING. OBS SHOW MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR OCCURRING AT SLK ASSOCIATED WITH A
HEAVIER DOWNPOUR. WL USE TEMPO GROUP BTWN 06-10Z TO COVER BAND OF
RAIN MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
BRIEF IFR CIGS/VIS WL BE POSSIBLE AT SLK BTWN 06-09Z...PER OBS AND
LATEST SOUNDING DATA. OTHERWISE...RAIN BAND SHIFTS EAST OF OUR
REGION BY 10Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WL DEVELOP BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TODAY WITH GUSTS BTWN 15 AND
20 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SW TO NE ALIGNED SLV...IMPACTING THE
MSS TAF SITE.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU FRIDAY AFTN. CLOUDS WL INCREASE AND
LOWER BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR TAF SITES.
SCATTERED RAIN WITH MTN SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS AND POTENTIAL IFR VIS/CIGS
AT MPV/SLK. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH
SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWERS AND VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS/MIXED WITH
SNOW ON SAT NIGHT. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS OF 15
TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE
BROAD LAKE...HIGHEST ON THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
LAKE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE A BIT TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...WGH/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...RJS




000
FXUS61 KALY 290601
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
201 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...A COOLER
AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SHOWERS...MAINLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE. AREAS WHERE THE WIND IS CALM OR LIGHT ARE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S (MOSTLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS)...WHILE AREAS THAT HAVE STILL
HAVE A GOOD SOUTHERLY BREEZE ARE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMP AND THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT
THESE CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A MILD SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT WAS ANALYZED ACROSS FAR WRN LK ONT...WESTERN NY
AND NW PA. LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN
RATHER GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT WITH THIS FRONT TRACKING EAST INTO
OUR WEST ZONES LATE THIS EVENING. THEN...ITS FORWARD PROGRESS IS
NOW EXPECTED TO SLOW SOMEWHAT AS THE SURFACE FEATURES BECOME
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FEATURES ALOFT. IN FACT...CONFIDENCE OF A
WEAK SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT OVER PA CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND IS
ALSO HINTED BY THE LATEST RAP13/HRRR. THEREFORE...WE WILL HOLD
ONTO THE POPS/WX A BIT LONGER OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWFA. AS FOR PRECIP
COVERAGE...LATEST REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS FROM THE HRRR/4KM-WRF
SHOW INITIALLY A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS INTO THE DACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...THEN A DECREASE IN COVERAGE UNTIL THE
SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE FOR MORE
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO THE HEART OF THE CWA AND
TRACKING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 50S FOR THE REGION.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SLOWLY ADVECTING
COLD AIR COMMENCES. THE MILD H850 TEMPS WILL BE REPLACED BY
FALLING TEMPS TO LOWER SINGLE DIGITS BY NIGHTFALL. SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE ACHIEVED BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
SLOWLY FALLING VALUES. AS THE COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WARM WATERS
OF LAKE ONTARIO OCCURS...SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. SO WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT FORECAST WITH INCREASING
POPS FOR THE DACKS. OTHERWISE...ANY BREAKS OF SUN WE RECEIVE WILL
LIKELY FILL BACK IN AS STRATUS FOR MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO THE MOIST
AND COOL CYCLONIC FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF COLDER
AIR DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ASSIST WITH MORE SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AND AS THE THERMAL COLUMN COOLS
FURTHER...SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH SNOW.
OTHERWISE...A PT-MOCLDY SKY WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZE AS MOST
AREAS DROP BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW 40F.

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOES
INCREASE A LITTLE WHICH SHOULD ASSIST WITH SUPPRESSING THE LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY FURTHER. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY TRAP
THE STRATUS DECK TO KEEP SKIES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MORE CLOUDS.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT COOLER AS WE TOO WILL FOLLOW THIS
TREND IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS THURSDAY BETWEEN 45-55F AND THURSDAY
NIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND IS COMING INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER
FOCUS...WITH MODELS INDICATING A DRIER TREND AT THIS TIME BUT STILL
COLD.

TO START THE PERIOD ON FRIDAY...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DIG CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
REGION...WHILE A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG AND RELATIVELY HIGH HEIGHTS
REMAIN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WESTERN AREAS COULD START TO SEE
THE EFFECTS FROM THE TROUGH WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR HALLOWEEN.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS FURTHER WITH THE CORE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CAROLINAS. ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CONUS...DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WITHIN THE TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
VALLEYS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS. AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY EXITS THE EAST COAST AND TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD...THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE GFS...CMC AND ECMWF ALL INDICATE AN
ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH FROM
QUEBEC AND PHASING WITH THE COASTAL ENERGY TOO LATE TO HAVE MUCH OF
AN IMPACT ON OUR REGION. WHILE A STRONG STORM IS STILL EXPECTED TO
FORM OVER THE OCEAN...IT APPEARS PRECIP DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PARENT STORM MAY BE TOO FAR EAST OF OUR AREA. SO WHILE COLD AIR WILL
FUNNEL IN LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY LIGHT QPF IS
NOW ANTICIPATED WITH PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS.
DESPITE RECENT MODEL TRENDS...THIS SCENARIO STILL HAS PLENTY OF TIME
TO CHANGE BASED ON FUTURE OBSERVATIONAL AND SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE REGION SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY...WITH ALL AREAS LIKELY DROPPING
BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE CONTINUED COOL AND
BLUSTERY...WITH A MODERATING TREND BY MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME SHOWERS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE E-CNTRL NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS.  SOME SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE INTO KGFL AND KALB BTWN
08Z-12Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE LOCATIONS. THE SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT KPSF
BTWN 08Z-12Z...AND MAY LINGER UNTIL 17Z-18Z. A LONGER SUSTAINED
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS IS LIKELY THERE. KPOU WILL SEE AN INCREASE
IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARDS 12Z...AND THERE IS THE THREAT OF A FEW
SHOWERS BTWN 15Z-19Z.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT....KEEPING THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND WEST.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM AT KGFL..KPOU...AND KPSF THIS
MORNING...BUT A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE AT KALB IN THE 5-10
KT RANGE. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO W AT 5-10 KTS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT THE WINDS TO VEER TO THE W TO NW
AT 10 KTS OR LEES BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND DIMINISH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A RATHER MILD AND DRY AIR MASS IS IN PLACE WHICH WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND COOLER BUT SOMEWHAT DRIER WEATHER.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...AND
SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...BEFORE LOWERING TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS DESPITE
THE SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE TENTH TO HALF OF AN
INCH RANGE.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MOST OF THE HSA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME THE
PRECIPITATION MAY BE RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KBTV 290547
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
147 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RESIDE OVER THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 147 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATION.
HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WESTWARD OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE LOWERED SOME TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES OVER EASTERN VERMONT. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING RAIN
SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST
VERMONT AT THIS TIME. CURRENT FORECAST FOR RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
LOOKS GOOD...SO NO CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA AND WEAKENS FURTHER. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT LITTLE IN WAY OF
CLEARING ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
UP...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. GENERAL
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MAY PRODUCE A
LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. TEMPS TRENDING COLDER WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT TUESDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BEFORE
RETURNING TO NORMAL TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH LARGE-SCALE AMPLIFICATION TO
TAKE PLACE EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A DEEP TROF
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN US WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY WHICH THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY MONDAY. THE TROF MOVES OUT BY TUESDAY
WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND RIDGING ALOFT. THIS MORNING/S MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE TROF AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.

THE APPROACHING TROF WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM WEST TO
EAST ON FRIDAY, PERHAPS A FEW SNOWFLAKES AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AS HEIGHTS FALL AND COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY WHEN A BETTER CHANCE THAT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
MAKE IT DOWN TO LOWER ELEVATIONS.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY
TRACKING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCH MARK THEN NORTHWARD TOWARD
NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY LOOKS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ANY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM OUR AREA, BUT LIGHT SNOW COULD EXTEND
WESTWARD INTO EASTERN VT. RIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS BUT COULD SEE FLAKES AT ANY ELEVATION ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY.

AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY ON MONDAY ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL TAPER OFF AND WITH FLOW WEAKENING ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES INTO THE REGION.

LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S ON FRIDAY DROPPING INTO
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY, 30S SUNDAY, 35-40 MONDAY, AND
INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY. LOW TEMPS GENERALLY 25 TO 35 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WEAK SFC COLD FRNT AND ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF
MOISTURE IS PRODUCING A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING. OBS SHOW MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR OCCURRING AT SLK ASSOCIATED WITH A
HEAVIER DOWNPOUR. WL USE TEMPO GROUP BTWN 06-10Z TO COVER BAND OF
RAIN MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
BRIEF IFR CIGS/VIS WL BE POSSIBLE AT SLK BTWN 06-09Z...PER OBS AND
LATEST SOUNDING DATA. OTHERWISE...RAIN BAND SHIFTS EAST OF OUR
REGION BY 10Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WL DEVELOP BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TODAY WITH GUSTS BTWN 15 AND
20 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SW TO NE ALIGNED SLV...IMPACTING THE
MSS TAF SITE.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU FRIDAY AFTN. CLOUDS WL INCREASE AND
LOWER BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR TAF SITES.
SCATTERED RAIN WITH MTN SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS AND POTENTIAL IFR VIS/CIGS
AT MPV/SLK. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH
SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWERS AND VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS/MIXED WITH
SNOW ON SAT NIGHT. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS OF 15
TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE
BROAD LAKE...HIGHEST ON THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
LAKE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE A BIT TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...WGH/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 290541
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
141 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RESIDE OVER THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 949 PM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE IN GREAT
SHAPE. RAIN SHOWERS PROGRESSING NOW THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 711 PM TUESDAY...
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT AHEAD OF A SYSTEM
LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO CANADA IS PROVIDING THE
REGION WITH A CLOUDY BUT RELATIVELY MILD EVENING. A COLD FRONT
BACK ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN
SHOWERS. THESE ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE THEIR TREK EASTWARD THROUGH
THE NIGHT. HAVE BEEN SEEING A FEW ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WELL
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
THUNDER ACTIVITY BUT THERE IS A SMALL AMOUNT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...SO WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE IN ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES WON`T GO FAR OVERNIGHT WITH
CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOOKING AT LOWS 45-55F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA AND WEAKENS FURTHER. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT LITTLE IN WAY OF
CLEARING ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
UP...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. GENERAL
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MAY PRODUCE A
LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. TEMPS TRENDING COLDER WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT TUESDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BEFORE
RETURNING TO NORMAL TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH LARGE-SCALE AMPLIFICATION TO
TAKE PLACE EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A DEEP TROF
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN US WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY WHICH THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY MONDAY. THE TROF MOVES OUT BY TUESDAY
WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND RIDGING ALOFT. THIS MORNING/S MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE TROF AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.

THE APPROACHING TROF WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM WEST TO
EAST ON FRIDAY, PERHAPS A FEW SNOWFLAKES AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AS HEIGHTS FALL AND COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY WHEN A BETTER CHANCE THAT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
MAKE IT DOWN TO LOWER ELEVATIONS.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY
TRACKING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCH MARK THEN NORTHWARD TOWARD
NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY LOOKS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ANY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM OUR AREA, BUT LIGHT SNOW COULD EXTEND
WESTWARD INTO EASTERN VT. RIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS BUT COULD SEE FLAKES AT ANY ELEVATION ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY.

AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY ON MONDAY ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL TAPER OFF AND WITH FLOW WEAKENING ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES INTO THE REGION.

LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S ON FRIDAY DROPPING INTO
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY, 30S SUNDAY, 35-40 MONDAY, AND
INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY. LOW TEMPS GENERALLY 25 TO 35 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WEAK SFC COLD FRNT AND ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF
MOISTURE IS PRODUCING A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING. OBS SHOW MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR OCCURRING AT SLK ASSOCIATED WITH A
HEAVIER DOWNPOUR. WL USE TEMPO GROUP BTWN 06-10Z TO COVER BAND OF
RAIN MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
BRIEF IFR CIGS/VIS WL BE POSSIBLE AT SLK BTWN 06-09Z...PER OBS AND
LATEST SOUNDING DATA. OTHERWISE...RAIN BAND SHIFTS EAST OF OUR
REGION BY 10Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WL DEVELOP BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TODAY WITH GUSTS BTWN 15 AND
20 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SW TO NE ALIGNED SLV...IMPACTING THE
MSS TAF SITE.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU FRIDAY AFTN. CLOUDS WL INCREASE AND
LOWER BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR TAF SITES.
SCATTERED RAIN WITH MTN SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH MVFR CIGS IN THE VALLEYS AND POTENTIAL IFR VIS/CIGS
AT MPV/SLK. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP SAT INTO SUNDAY WITH
SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWERS AND VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS/MIXED WITH
SNOW ON SAT NIGHT. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS OF 15
TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE
BROAD LAKE...HIGHEST ON THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
LAKE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE A BIT TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...RJS




000
FXUS61 KALY 290540
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
142 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...A COOLER
AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SHOWERS...MAINLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE. AREAS WHERE THE WIND IS CALM OR LIGHT ARE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S (MOSTLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS)...WHILE AREAS THAT HAVE STILL
HAVE A GOOD SOUTHERLY BREEZE ARE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMP AND THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT
THESE CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A MILD SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT WAS ANALYZED ACROSS FAR WRN LK ONT...WESTERN NY
AND NW PA. LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN
RATHER GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT WITH THIS FRONT TRACKING EAST INTO
OUR WEST ZONES LATE THIS EVENING. THEN...ITS FORWARD PROGRESS IS
NOW EXPECTED TO SLOW SOMEWHAT AS THE SURFACE FEATURES BECOME
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FEATURES ALOFT. IN FACT...CONFIDENCE OF A
WEAK SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT OVER PA CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND IS
ALSO HINTED BY THE LATEST RAP13/HRRR. THEREFORE...WE WILL HOLD
ONTO THE POPS/WX A BIT LONGER OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWFA. AS FOR PRECIP
COVERAGE...LATEST REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS FROM THE HRRR/4KM-WRF
SHOW INITIALLY A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS INTO THE DACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...THEN A DECREASE IN COVERAGE UNTIL THE
SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE FOR MORE
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO THE HEART OF THE CWA AND
TRACKING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 50S FOR THE REGION.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SLOWLY ADVECTING
COLD AIR COMMENCES. THE MILD H850 TEMPS WILL BE REPLACED BY
FALLING TEMPS TO LOWER SINGLE DIGITS BY NIGHTFALL. SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE ACHIEVED BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
SLOWLY FALLING VALUES. AS THE COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WARM WATERS
OF LAKE ONTARIO OCCURS...SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. SO WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT FORECAST WITH INCREASING
POPS FOR THE DACKS. OTHERWISE...ANY BREAKS OF SUN WE RECEIVE WILL
LIKELY FILL BACK IN AS STRATUS FOR MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO THE MOIST
AND COOL CYCLONIC FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF COLDER
AIR DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ASSIST WITH MORE SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AND AS THE THERMAL COLUMN COOLS
FURTHER...SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH SNOW.
OTHERWISE...A PT-MOCLDY SKY WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZE AS MOST
AREAS DROP BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW 40F.

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOES
INCREASE A LITTLE WHICH SHOULD ASSIST WITH SUPPRESSING THE LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY FURTHER. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY TRAP
THE STRATUS DECK TO KEEP SKIES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MORE CLOUDS.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT COOLER AS WE TOO WILL FOLLOW THIS
TREND IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS THURSDAY BETWEEN 45-55F AND THURSDAY
NIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND IS COMING INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER
FOCUS...WITH MODELS INDICATING A DRIER TREND AT THIS TIME BUT STILL
COLD.

TO START THE PERIOD ON FRIDAY...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DIG CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
REGION...WHILE A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG AND RELATIVELY HIGH HEIGHTS
REMAIN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WESTERN AREAS COULD START TO SEE
THE EFFECTS FROM THE TROUGH WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR HALLOWEEN.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS FURTHER WITH THE CORE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CAROLINAS. ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CONUS...DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WITHIN THE TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
VALLEYS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS. AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY EXITS THE EAST COAST AND TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD...THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE GFS...CMC AND ECMWF ALL INDICATE AN
ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH FROM
QUEBEC AND PHASING WITH THE COASTAL ENERGY TOO LATE TO HAVE MUCH OF
AN IMPACT ON OUR REGION. WHILE A STRONG STORM IS STILL EXPECTED TO
FORM OVER THE OCEAN...IT APPEARS PRECIP DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PARENT STORM MAY BE TOO FAR EAST OF OUR AREA. SO WHILE COLD AIR WILL
FUNNEL IN LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY LIGHT QPF IS
NOW ANTICIPATED WITH PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS.
DESPITE RECENT MODEL TRENDS...THIS SCENARIO STILL HAS PLENTY OF TIME
TO CHANGE BASED ON FUTURE OBSERVATIONAL AND SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE REGION SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY...WITH ALL AREAS LIKELY DROPPING
BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE CONTINUED COOL AND
BLUSTERY...WITH A MODERATING TREND BY MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVELS CLOUDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING WITHIN A WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO EVENTUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR KALB/KGFL/KPSF...BUT LESS
CERTAIN AT KPOU. SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING
AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY PUSHES EASTWARD WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY DECREASING TO 2-5 KTS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE
TO 6-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A RATHER MILD AND DRY AIR MASS IS IN PLACE WHICH WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND COOLER BUT SOMEWHAT DRIER WEATHER.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...AND
SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...BEFORE LOWERING TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS DESPITE
THE SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE TENTH TO HALF OF AN
INCH RANGE.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MOST OF THE HSA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME THE
PRECIPITATION MAY BE RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/11
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...11/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA











000
FXUS61 KBTV 290152
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
952 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RESIDE OVER THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 949 PM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE IN GREAT
SHAPE. RAIN SHOWERS PROGRESSING NOW THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 711 PM TUESDAY...
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT AHEAD OF A SYSTEM
LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO CANADA IS PROVIDING THE
REGION WITH A CLOUDY BUT RELATIVELY MILD EVENING. A COLD FRONT
BACK ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN
SHOWERS. THESE ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE THEIR TREK EASTWARD THROUGH
THE NIGHT. HAVE BEEN SEEING A FEW ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WELL
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
THUNDER ACTIVITY BUT THERE IS A SMALL AMOUNT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...SO WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE IN ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES WON`T GO FAR OVERNIGHT WITH
CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOOKING AT LOWS 45-55F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA AND WEAKENS FURTHER. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT LITTLE IN WAY OF
CLEARING ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
UP...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. GENERAL
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MAY PRODUCE A
LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. TEMPS TRENDING COLDER WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT TUESDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BEFORE
RETURNING TO NORMAL TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH LARGE-SCALE AMPLIFICATION TO
TAKE PLACE EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A DEEP TROF
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN US WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY WHICH THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY MONDAY. THE TROF MOVES OUT BY TUESDAY
WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND RIDGING ALOFT. THIS MORNING/S MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE TROF AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.

THE APPROACHING TROF WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM WEST TO
EAST ON FRIDAY, PERHAPS A FEW SNOWFLAKES AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AS HEIGHTS FALL AND COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY WHEN A BETTER CHANCE THAT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
MAKE IT DOWN TO LOWER ELEVATIONS.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY
TRACKING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCH MARK THEN NORTHWARD TOWARD
NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY LOOKS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ANY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM OUR AREA, BUT LIGHT SNOW COULD EXTEND
WESTWARD INTO EASTERN VT. RIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS BUT COULD SEE FLAKES AT ANY ELEVATION ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY.

AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY ON MONDAY ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL TAPER OFF AND WITH FLOW WEAKENING ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES INTO THE REGION.

LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S ON FRIDAY DROPPING INTO
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY, 30S SUNDAY, 35-40 MONDAY, AND
INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY. LOW TEMPS GENERALLY 25 TO 35 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...BAND OF SHOWERS NOW MOVING INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NEW YORK AND THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EASTWARD TONIGHT BEFORE EVENTUALLY EXITING VERMONT AFTER 08Z.
THERE HAVE BEEN LITTLE IN THE WAY OF OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY
WITH THESE SHOWERS...SO EXPECTING VFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MVFR AND VFR CATEGORIES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MVFR CEILINGS MAINLY WITH THE SHOWERS AND
AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...BUT THE
SHOWERS MENTIONED EARLIER ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT AND
THUS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WE ARE LOOKING WINDS TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST AND WEST WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WED NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CIGS. SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK
THU...MAINLY VFR CIGS. CLEARING P.M.
FRI...MAINLY VFR BUT RAIN SHOWERS FRI NIGHT CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS BY SAT MORNING.
SAT...IFR POSSIBLE WITH SNOW SHOWERS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS OF 15
TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE
BROAD LAKE...HIGHEST ON THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
LAKE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE A BIT TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SISSON
MARINE...RJS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 290152
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
952 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RESIDE OVER THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 949 PM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE IN GREAT
SHAPE. RAIN SHOWERS PROGRESSING NOW THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 711 PM TUESDAY...
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT AHEAD OF A SYSTEM
LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO CANADA IS PROVIDING THE
REGION WITH A CLOUDY BUT RELATIVELY MILD EVENING. A COLD FRONT
BACK ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN
SHOWERS. THESE ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE THEIR TREK EASTWARD THROUGH
THE NIGHT. HAVE BEEN SEEING A FEW ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WELL
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
THUNDER ACTIVITY BUT THERE IS A SMALL AMOUNT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...SO WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE IN ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES WON`T GO FAR OVERNIGHT WITH
CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOOKING AT LOWS 45-55F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA AND WEAKENS FURTHER. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT LITTLE IN WAY OF
CLEARING ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
UP...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. GENERAL
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MAY PRODUCE A
LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. TEMPS TRENDING COLDER WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT TUESDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BEFORE
RETURNING TO NORMAL TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH LARGE-SCALE AMPLIFICATION TO
TAKE PLACE EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A DEEP TROF
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN US WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY WHICH THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY MONDAY. THE TROF MOVES OUT BY TUESDAY
WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND RIDGING ALOFT. THIS MORNING/S MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE TROF AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.

THE APPROACHING TROF WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM WEST TO
EAST ON FRIDAY, PERHAPS A FEW SNOWFLAKES AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AS HEIGHTS FALL AND COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY WHEN A BETTER CHANCE THAT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
MAKE IT DOWN TO LOWER ELEVATIONS.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY
TRACKING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCH MARK THEN NORTHWARD TOWARD
NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY LOOKS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ANY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM OUR AREA, BUT LIGHT SNOW COULD EXTEND
WESTWARD INTO EASTERN VT. RIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS BUT COULD SEE FLAKES AT ANY ELEVATION ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY.

AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY ON MONDAY ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL TAPER OFF AND WITH FLOW WEAKENING ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES INTO THE REGION.

LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S ON FRIDAY DROPPING INTO
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY, 30S SUNDAY, 35-40 MONDAY, AND
INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY. LOW TEMPS GENERALLY 25 TO 35 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...BAND OF SHOWERS NOW MOVING INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NEW YORK AND THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EASTWARD TONIGHT BEFORE EVENTUALLY EXITING VERMONT AFTER 08Z.
THERE HAVE BEEN LITTLE IN THE WAY OF OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY
WITH THESE SHOWERS...SO EXPECTING VFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MVFR AND VFR CATEGORIES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MVFR CEILINGS MAINLY WITH THE SHOWERS AND
AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...BUT THE
SHOWERS MENTIONED EARLIER ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT AND
THUS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WE ARE LOOKING WINDS TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST AND WEST WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WED NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CIGS. SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK
THU...MAINLY VFR CIGS. CLEARING P.M.
FRI...MAINLY VFR BUT RAIN SHOWERS FRI NIGHT CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS BY SAT MORNING.
SAT...IFR POSSIBLE WITH SNOW SHOWERS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS OF 15
TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE
BROAD LAKE...HIGHEST ON THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
LAKE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE A BIT TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SISSON
MARINE...RJS




000
FXUS61 KALY 290121
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
921 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AS THIS MILD
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN FOR A BRIEF TIME TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN ITS
WAKE...A COOLER AIR MASS WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SHOWERS...MAINLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 920 PM EDT...SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA WITH STILL A NARROW WEDGE OF
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SE PTN OF FA. FOR THIS
UPDATE GENERALLY LEFT POPS IN PLACE...HOWEVER SPED UP TIMING OF
THE CLOUD COVER.

A MILD SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT WAS ANALYZED ACROSS FAR WRN LK ONT...WESTERN NY
AND NW PA. LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN
RATHER GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT WITH THIS FRONT TRACKING EAST INTO
OUR WEST ZONES LATE THIS EVENING. THEN...ITS FORWARD PROGRESS IS
NOW EXPECTED TO SLOW SOMEWHAT AS THE SURFACE FEATURES BECOME
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FEATURES ALOFT. IN FACT...CONFIDENCE OF A
WEAK SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT OVER PA CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND IS
ALSO HINTED BY THE LATEST RAP13/HRRR. THEREFORE...WE WILL HOLD
ONTO THE POPS/WX A BIT LONGER OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWFA. AS FOR PRECIP
COVERAGE...LATEST REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS FROM THE HRRR/4KM-WRF
SHOW INITIALLY A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS INTO THE DACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...THEN A DECREASE IN COVERAGE UNTIL THE
SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE FOR MORE
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO THE HEART OF THE CWA AND
TRACKING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 50S FOR THE REGION.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SLOWLY ADVECTING
COLD AIR COMMENCES. THE MILD H850 TEMPS WILL BE REPLACED BY
FALLING TEMPS TO LOWER SINGLE DIGITS BY NIGHTFALL. SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE ACHIEVED BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
SLOWLY FALLING VALUES. AS THE COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WARM WATERS
OF LAKE ONTARIO OCCURS...SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. SO WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT FORECAST WITH INCREASING
POPS FOR THE DACKS. OTHERWISE...ANY BREAKS OF SUN WE RECEIVE WILL
LIKELY FILL BACK IN AS STRATUS FOR MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO THE MOIST
AND COOL CYCLONIC FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF COLDER
AIR DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ASSIST WITH MORE SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AND AS THE THERMAL COLUMN COOLS
FURTHER...SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH SNOW.
OTHERWISE...A PT-MOCLDY SKY WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZE AS MOST
AREAS DROP BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW 40F.

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOES
INCREASE A LITTLE WHICH SHOULD ASSIST WITH SUPPRESSING THE LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY FURTHER. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY TRAP
THE STRATUS DECK TO KEEP SKIES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MORE CLOUDS.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT COOLER AS WE TOO WILL FOLLOW THIS
TREND IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS THURSDAY BETWEEN 45-55F AND THURSDAY
NIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND IS COMING INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER
FOCUS...WITH MODELS INDICATING A DRIER TREND AT THIS TIME BUT STILL
COLD.

TO START THE PERIOD ON FRIDAY...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DIG CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
REGION...WHILE A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG AND RELATIVELY HIGH HEIGHTS
REMAIN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WESTERN AREAS COULD START TO SEE
THE EFFECTS FROM THE TROUGH WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR HALLOWEEN.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS FURTHER WITH THE CORE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CAROLINAS. ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CONUS...DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WITHIN THE TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
VALLEYS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS. AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY EXITS THE EAST COAST AND TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD...THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE GFS...CMC AND ECMWF ALL INDICATE AN
ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH FROM
QUEBEC AND PHASING WITH THE COASTAL ENERGY TOO LATE TO HAVE MUCH OF
AN IMPACT ON OUR REGION. WHILE A STRONG STORM IS STILL EXPECTED TO
FORM OVER THE OCEAN...IT APPEARS PRECIP DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PARENT STORM MAY BE TOO FAR EAST OF OUR AREA. SO WHILE COLD AIR WILL
FUNNEL IN LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY LIGHT QPF IS
NOW ANTICIPATED WITH PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS.
DESPITE RECENT MODEL TRENDS...THIS SCENARIO STILL HAS PLENTY OF TIME
TO CHANGE BASED ON FUTURE OBSERVATIONAL AND SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE REGION SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY...WITH ALL AREAS LIKELY DROPPING
BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE CONTINUED COOL AND
BLUSTERY...WITH A MODERATING TREND BY MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVELS CLOUDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING WITHIN A WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO EVENTUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR KALB/KGFL/KPSF...BUT LESS
CERTAIN AT KPOU. SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING
AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY PUSHES EASTWARD WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY DECREASING TO 2-5 KTS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE
TO 6-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A RATHER MILD AND DRY AIR MASS IS IN PLACE WHICH WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND COOLER BUT SOMEWHAT DRIER WEATHER.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...AND
SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...BEFORE LOWERING TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS DESPITE
THE SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE TENTH TO HALF OF AN
INCH RANGE.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MOST OF THE HSA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME THE
PRECIPITATION MAY BE RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/11
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...11/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KBTV 282321
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
721 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RESIDE OVER THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 711 PM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. SOUTHWEST
FLOW OUT AHEAD OF A SYSTEM LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO CANADA IS PROVIDING THE REGION WITH A CLOUDY BUT RELATIVELY
MILD EVENING. A COLD FRONT BACK ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS. THESE ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE
INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE
THEIR TREK EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE BEEN SEEING A FEW
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER ACTIVITY BUT THERE IS A
SMALL AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SO WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT
CHANCE IN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES WON`T GO FAR
OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOOKING AT
LOWS 45-55F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA AND WEAKENS FURTHER. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT LITTLE IN WAY OF
CLEARING ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
UP...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. GENERAL
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MAY PRODUCE A
LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. TEMPS TRENDING COLDER WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT TUESDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BEFORE
RETURNING TO NORMAL TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH LARGE-SCALE AMPLIFICATION TO
TAKE PLACE EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A DEEP TROF
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN US WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY WHICH THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY MONDAY. THE TROF MOVES OUT BY TUESDAY
WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND RIDGING ALOFT. THIS MORNING/S MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE TROF AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.

THE APPROACHING TROF WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM WEST TO
EAST ON FRIDAY, PERHAPS A FEW SNOWFLAKES AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AS HEIGHTS FALL AND COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY WHEN A BETTER CHANCE THAT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
MAKE IT DOWN TO LOWER ELEVATIONS.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY
TRACKING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCH MARK THEN NORTHWARD TOWARD
NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY LOOKS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ANY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM OUR AREA, BUT LIGHT SNOW COULD EXTEND
WESTWARD INTO EASTERN VT. RIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS BUT COULD SEE FLAKES AT ANY ELEVATION ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY.

AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY ON MONDAY ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL TAPER OFF AND WITH FLOW WEAKENING ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES INTO THE REGION.

LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S ON FRIDAY DROPPING INTO
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY, 30S SUNDAY, 35-40 MONDAY, AND
INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY. LOW TEMPS GENERALLY 25 TO 35 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...BAND OF SHOWERS NOW MOVING INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NEW YORK AND THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EASTWARD TONIGHT BEFORE EVENTUALLY EXITING VERMONT AFTER 08Z.
THERE HAVE BEEN LITTLE IN THE WAY OF OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY
WITH THESE SHOWERS...SO EXPECTING VFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MVFR AND VFR CATEGORIES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MVFR CEILINGS MAINLY WITH THE SHOWERS AND
AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...BUT THE
SHOWERS MENTIONED EARLIER ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT AND
THUS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WE ARE LOOKING WINDS TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST AND WEST WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WED NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CIGS. SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK
THU...MAINLY VFR CIGS. CLEARING P.M.
FRI...MAINLY VFR BUT RAIN SHOWERS FRI NIGHT CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS BY SAT MORNING.
SAT...IFR POSSIBLE WITH SNOW SHOWERS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS OF 15
TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE
BROAD LAKE...HIGHEST ON THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
LAKE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE A BIT TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SISSON
MARINE...RJS




000
FXUS61 KALY 282309
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
709 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AS THIS MILD
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN FOR A BRIEF TIME TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN ITS
WAKE...A COOLER AIR MASS WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SHOWERS...MAINLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 620 PM EDT...SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF FA.
THE HIGH CANOPY OF CLOUDS HAS STARTED TO THICKEN CREATING MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA.

A MILD SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT WAS ANALYZED ALONG THE DETROIT/ST CLAIR RIVERS
WITH THE MAIN SURFACE LOW TRACKING NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN JAMES
BAY. LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN
RATHER GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT WITH THIS FRONT TRACKING EAST INTO
OUR WEST ZONES LATE THIS EVENING. THEN...ITS FORWARD PROGRESS IS
NOW EXPECTED TO SLOW SOMEWHAT AS THE SURFACE FEATURES BECOME
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FEATURES ALOFT. IN FACT...CONFIDENCE OF A
WEAK SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT OVER PA CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND IS
ALSO HINTED BY THE LATEST RAP13/HRRR. THEREFORE...WE WILL HOLD
ONTO THE POPS/WX A BIT LONGER OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWFA. AS FOR PRECIP
COVERAGE...LATEST REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS FROM THE HRRR/4KM-WRF
SHOW INITIALLY A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS INTO THE DACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...THEN A DECREASE IN COVERAGE UNTIL THE
SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE FOR MORE
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO THE HEART OF THE CWA AND
TRACKING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 50S FOR THE REGION.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SLOWLY ADVECTING
COLD AIR COMMENCES. THE MILD H850 TEMPS WILL BE REPLACED BY
FALLING TEMPS TO LOWER SINGLE DIGITS BY NIGHTFALL. SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE ACHIEVED BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
SLOWLY FALLING VALUES. AS THE COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WARM WATERS
OF LAKE ONTARIO OCCURS...SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. SO WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT FORECAST WITH INCREASING
POPS FOR THE DACKS. OTHERWISE...ANY BREAKS OF SUN WE RECEIVE WILL
LIKELY FILL BACK IN AS STRATUS FOR MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO THE MOIST
AND COOL CYCLONIC FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF COLDER
AIR DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ASSIST WITH MORE SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AND AS THE THERMAL COLUMN COOLS
FURTHER...SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH SNOW.
OTHERWISE...A PT-MOCLDY SKY WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZE AS MOST
AREAS DROP BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW 40F.

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOES
INCREASE A LITTLE WHICH SHOULD ASSIST WITH SUPPRESSING THE LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY FURTHER. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY TRAP
THE STRATUS DECK TO KEEP SKIES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MORE CLOUDS.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT COOLER AS WE TOO WILL FOLLOW THIS
TREND IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS THURSDAY BETWEEN 45-55F AND THURSDAY
NIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND IS COMING INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER
FOCUS...WITH MODELS INDICATING A DRIER TREND AT THIS TIME BUT STILL
COLD.

TO START THE PERIOD ON FRIDAY...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DIG CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
REGION...WHILE A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG AND RELATIVELY HIGH HEIGHTS
REMAIN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WESTERN AREAS COULD START TO SEE
THE EFFECTS FROM THE TROUGH WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR HALLOWEEN.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS FURTHER WITH THE CORE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CAROLINAS. ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CONUS...DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WITHIN THE TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
VALLEYS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS. AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY EXITS THE EAST COAST AND TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD...THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE GFS...CMC AND ECMWF ALL INDICATE AN
ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH FROM
QUEBEC AND PHASING WITH THE COASTAL ENERGY TOO LATE TO HAVE MUCH OF
AN IMPACT ON OUR REGION. WHILE A STRONG STORM IS STILL EXPECTED TO
FORM OVER THE OCEAN...IT APPEARS PRECIP DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PARENT STORM MAY BE TOO FAR EAST OF OUR AREA. SO WHILE COLD AIR WILL
FUNNEL IN LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY LIGHT QPF IS
NOW ANTICIPATED WITH PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS.
DESPITE RECENT MODEL TRENDS...THIS SCENARIO STILL HAS PLENTY OF TIME
TO CHANGE BASED ON FUTURE OBSERVATIONAL AND SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE REGION SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY...WITH ALL AREAS LIKELY DROPPING
BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE CONTINUED COOL AND
BLUSTERY...WITH A MODERATING TREND BY MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVELS CLOUDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING WITHIN A WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO EVENTUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR KALB/KGFL/KPSF...BUT LESS
CERTAIN AT KPOU. SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING
AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY PUSHES EASTWARD WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY DECREASING TO 2-5 KTS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE
TO 6-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A RATHER MILD AND DRY AIR MASS IS IN PLACE WHICH WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND COOLER BUT SOMEWHAT DRIER WEATHER.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...AND
SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...BEFORE LOWERING TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS DESPITE
THE SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE TENTH TO HALF OF AN
INCH RANGE.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MOST OF THE HSA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME THE
PRECIPITATION MAY BE RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/11
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...11/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KBTV 282251
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
651 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RESIDE OVER THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT
HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA AND/OR DISSIPATED...LEAVING FORECAST
AREA WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A RETURN OF SHOWERS TONIGHT.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO ARRIVE IN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND 00Z...IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND IN SOUTHERN/EASTERN
VERMONT AROUND OR A LITTLE AFTER 06Z. EASTWARD FRONTAL PROGRESS
WILL SLOW AS IT MAKES WAY ACROSS FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. HAVE
INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS
EVENING WHERE SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY INDICATED. MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT RATHER MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA AND WEAKENS FURTHER. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT LITTLE IN WAY OF
CLEARING ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
UP...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. GENERAL
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MAY PRODUCE A
LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. TEMPS TRENDING COLDER WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT TUESDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BEFORE
RETURNING TO NORMAL TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH LARGE-SCALE AMPLIFICATION TO
TAKE PLACE EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A DEEP TROF
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN US WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY WHICH THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY MONDAY. THE TROF MOVES OUT BY TUESDAY
WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND RIDGING ALOFT. THIS MORNING/S MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE TROF AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.

THE APPROACHING TROF WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM WEST TO
EAST ON FRIDAY, PERHAPS A FEW SNOWFLAKES AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AS HEIGHTS FALL AND COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY WHEN A BETTER CHANCE THAT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
MAKE IT DOWN TO LOWER ELEVATIONS.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY
TRACKING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCH MARK THEN NORTHWARD TOWARD
NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY LOOKS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ANY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM OUR AREA, BUT LIGHT SNOW COULD EXTEND
WESTWARD INTO EASTERN VT. RIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS BUT COULD SEE FLAKES AT ANY ELEVATION ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY.

AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY ON MONDAY ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL TAPER OFF AND WITH FLOW WEAKENING ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES INTO THE REGION.

LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S ON FRIDAY DROPPING INTO
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY, 30S SUNDAY, 35-40 MONDAY, AND
INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY. LOW TEMPS GENERALLY 25 TO 35 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...BAND OF SHOWERS NOW MOVING INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NEW YORK AND THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EASTWARD TONIGHT BEFORE EVENTUALLY EXITING VERMONT AFTER 08Z.
THERE HAVE BEEN LITTLE IN THE WAY OF OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY
WITH THESE SHOWERS...SO EXPECTING VFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MVFR AND VFR CATEGORIES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MVFR CEILINGS MAINLY WITH THE SHOWERS AND
AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...BUT THE
SHOWERS MENTIONED EARLIER ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT AND
THUS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WE ARE LOOKING WINDS TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST AND WEST WITH GUSTS IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WED NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CIGS. SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK
THU...MAINLY VFR CIGS. CLEARING P.M.
FRI...MAINLY VFR BUT RAIN SHOWERS FRI NIGHT CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS BY SAT MORNING.
SAT...IFR POSSIBLE WITH SNOW SHOWERS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS OF 15
TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE
BROAD LAKE...HIGHEST ON THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
LAKE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE A BIT TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/SISSON
MARINE...RJS




000
FXUS61 KALY 282223
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
623 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AS THIS MILD
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN FOR A BRIEF TIME TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN ITS
WAKE...A COOLER AIR MASS WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SHOWERS...MAINLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 620 PM EDT...SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF FA.
THE HIGH CANOPY OF CLOUDS HAS STARTED TO THICKEN CREATING MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA.

A MILD SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT WAS ANALYZED ALONG THE DETROIT/ST CLAIR RIVERS
WITH THE MAIN SURFACE LOW TRACKING NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN JAMES
BAY. LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN
RATHER GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT WITH THIS FRONT TRACKING EAST INTO
OUR WEST ZONES LATE THIS EVENING. THEN...ITS FORWARD PROGRESS IS
NOW EXPECTED TO SLOW SOMEWHAT AS THE SURFACE FEATURES BECOME
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FEATURES ALOFT. IN FACT...CONFIDENCE OF A
WEAK SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT OVER PA CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND IS
ALSO HINTED BY THE LATEST RAP13/HRRR. THEREFORE...WE WILL HOLD
ONTO THE POPS/WX A BIT LONGER OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWFA. AS FOR PRECIP
COVERAGE...LATEST REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS FROM THE HRRR/4KM-WRF
SHOW INITIALLY A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS INTO THE DACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...THEN A DECREASE IN COVERAGE UNTIL THE
SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE FOR MORE
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO THE HEART OF THE CWA AND
TRACKING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 50S FOR THE REGION.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SLOWLY ADVECTING
COLD AIR COMMENCES. THE MILD H850 TEMPS WILL BE REPLACED BY
FALLING TEMPS TO LOWER SINGLE DIGITS BY NIGHTFALL. SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE ACHIEVED BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
SLOWLY FALLING VALUES. AS THE COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WARM WATERS
OF LAKE ONTARIO OCCURS...SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. SO WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT FORECAST WITH INCREASING
POPS FOR THE DACKS. OTHERWISE...ANY BREAKS OF SUN WE RECEIVE WILL
LIKELY FILL BACK IN AS STRATUS FOR MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO THE MOIST
AND COOL CYCLONIC FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF COLDER
AIR DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ASSIST WITH MORE SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AND AS THE THERMAL COLUMN COOLS
FURTHER...SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH SNOW.
OTHERWISE...A PT-MOCLDY SKY WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZE AS MOST
AREAS DROP BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW 40F.

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOES
INCREASE A LITTLE WHICH SHOULD ASSIST WITH SUPPRESSING THE LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY FURTHER. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY TRAP
THE STRATUS DECK TO KEEP SKIES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MORE CLOUDS.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT COOLER AS WE TOO WILL FOLLOW THIS
TREND IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS THURSDAY BETWEEN 45-55F AND THURSDAY
NIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND IS COMING INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER
FOCUS...WITH MODELS INDICATING A DRIER TREND AT THIS TIME BUT STILL
COLD.

TO START THE PERIOD ON FRIDAY...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DIG CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
REGION...WHILE A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG AND RELATIVELY HIGH HEIGHTS
REMAIN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WESTERN AREAS COULD START TO SEE
THE EFFECTS FROM THE TROUGH WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR HALLOWEEN.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS FURTHER WITH THE CORE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CAROLINAS. ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CONUS...DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WITHIN THE TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
VALLEYS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS. AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY EXITS THE EAST COAST AND TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD...THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE GFS...CMC AND ECMWF ALL INDICATE AN
ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH FROM
QUEBEC AND PHASING WITH THE COASTAL ENERGY TOO LATE TO HAVE MUCH OF
AN IMPACT ON OUR REGION. WHILE A STRONG STORM IS STILL EXPECTED TO
FORM OVER THE OCEAN...IT APPEARS PRECIP DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PARENT STORM MAY BE TOO FAR EAST OF OUR AREA. SO WHILE COLD AIR WILL
FUNNEL IN LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY LIGHT QPF IS
NOW ANTICIPATED WITH PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS.
DESPITE RECENT MODEL TRENDS...THIS SCENARIO STILL HAS PLENTY OF TIME
TO CHANGE BASED ON FUTURE OBSERVATIONAL AND SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE REGION SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY...WITH ALL AREAS LIKELY DROPPING
BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE CONTINUED COOL AND
BLUSTERY...WITH A MODERATING TREND BY MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVELS CLOUDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS WITHIN A WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASING FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR
KALB/KGFL/KPSF...BUT LESS CERTAIN AT KPOU. SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY PUSHES
EASTWARD.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...WITH SPEEDS DECREASING TO 2-6 KTS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A RATHER MILD AND DRY AIR MASS IS IN PLACE WHICH WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND COOLER BUT SOMEWHAT DRIER WEATHER.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...AND
SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...BEFORE LOWERING TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS DESPITE
THE SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE TENTH TO HALF OF AN
INCH RANGE.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MOST OF THE HSA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME THE
PRECIPITATION MAY BE RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/11
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KBTV 282015
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
415 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RESIDE OVER THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT
HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA AND/OR DISSIPATED...LEAVING FORECAST
AREA WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A RETURN OF SHOWERS TONIGHT.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO ARRIVE IN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND 00Z...IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND IN SOUTHERN/EASTERN
VERMONT AROUND OR A LITTLE AFTER 06Z. EASTWARD FRONTAL PROGRESS
WILL SLOW AS IT MAKES WAY ACROSS FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. HAVE
INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS
EVENING WHERE SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY INDICATED. MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT RATHER MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA AND WEAKENS FURTHER. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT LITTLE IN WAY OF
CLEARING ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
UP...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. GENERAL
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MAY PRODUCE A
LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. TEMPS TRENDING COLDER WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT TUESDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BEFORE
RETURNING TO NORMAL TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH LARGE-SCALE AMPLIFICATION TO
TAKE PLACE EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A DEEP TROF
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN US WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY WHICH THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY MONDAY. THE TROF MOVES OUT BY TUESDAY
WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND RIDGING ALOFT. THIS MORNING/S MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE TROF AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.

THE APPROACHING TROF WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM WEST TO
EAST ON FRIDAY, PERHAPS A FEW SNOWFLAKES AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AS HEIGHTS FALL AND COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY WHEN A BETTER CHANCE THAT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
MAKE IT DOWN TO LOWER ELEVATIONS.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY
TRACKING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCH MARK THEN NORTHWARD TOWARD
NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY LOOKS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP ANY HEAVY
PRECIP AWAY FROM OUR AREA, BUT LIGHT SNOW COULD EXTEND WESTWARD
INTO EASTERN VT. RIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS BUT COULD SEE FLAKES AT ANY ELEVATION ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY.

AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY ON MONDAY ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL TAPER OFF AND WITH FLOW WEAKENING ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES INTO THE REGION.

LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S ON FRIDAY DROPPING INTO
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SATURDAY, 30S SUNDAY, 35-40 MONDAY, AND
INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY. LOW TEMPS GENERALLY 25 TO 35 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MAINLY VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW
WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH A BAND OF FRONTAL SHOWERS
FROM 01Z-06Z IN NY AND 04-13Z IN VT LINGERING LONGEST AT KRUT AND
KMPV. NOT EXPECTING VSBY TO DROP MUCH IN ANY OF THE SHOWERS WHILE
CIGS DROP TO 1500-2500 FT.

POST- FRONTAL STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH BASES RISING
FROM 2500 FT TO 3500-4000 FT BY 18Z WED. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS IN THE ALIGNED VALLEYS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND
VEER TO WESTERLY BY MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WED...MAINLY VFR CIGS. SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK
THU...MAINLY VFR CIGS. CLEARING P.M.
FRI...MAINLY VFR BUT RAIN SHOWERS FRI NIGHT CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS BY SAT MORNING.
SAT...IFR POSSIBLE WITH SNOW SHOWERS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS OF 15
TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE
BROAD LAKE...HIGHEST ON THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
LAKE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE A BIT TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
MARINE...RJS




000
FXUS61 KALY 282007
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
407 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AS THIS MILD
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN FOR A BRIEF TIME TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN ITS
WAKE...A COOLER AIR MASS WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE
SHOWERS...MAINLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT...SURFACE WARM FRONT JUST CLEARED THE MAJORITY OF OUR
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ZONES /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE SOUTHERN GREENS/. THE HIGH THIN CANOPY OF CLOUDS REMAIN SEMI-
TRANSPARENT ENOUGH WHERE SKY CONDITIONS ARE PTSUNNY AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED QUITE WELL. LOW-MID 70S FOR THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF NW CT TO 60S ELSEWHERE /AND STILL
CLIMBING/.

A MILD SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT WAS ANALYZED ALONG THE DETROIT/ST CLAIR RIVERS
WITH THE MAIN SURFACE LOW TRACKING NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN JAMES
BAY. LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN
RATHER GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT WITH THIS FRONT TRACKING EAST INTO
OUR WEST ZONES LATE THIS EVENING. THEN...ITS FORWARD PROGRESS IS
NOW EXPECTED TO SLOW SOMEWHAT AS THE SURFACE FEATURES BECOME
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FEATURES ALOFT. IN FACT...CONFIDENCE OF A
WEAK SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT OVER PA CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND IS
ALSO HINTED BY THE LATEST RAP13/HRRR. THEREFORE...WE WILL HOLD
ONTO THE POPS/WX A BIT LONGER OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWFA. AS FOR PRECIP
COVERAGE...LATEST REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS FROM THE HRRR/4KM-WRF
SHOW INITIALLY A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS INTO THE DACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...THEN A DECREASE IN COVERAGE UNTIL THE
SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS AND UPPER DIFLUENCE FOR MORE
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO THE HEART OF THE CWA AND
TRACKING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 50S FOR THE REGION.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SLOWLY ADVECTING
COLD AIR COMMENCES. THE MILD H850 TEMPS WILL BE REPLACED BY
FALLING TEMPS TO LOWER SINGLE DIGITS BY NIGHTFALL. SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE ACHIEVED BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
SLOWLY FALLING VALUES. AS THE COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WARM WATERS
OF LAKE ONTARIO OCCURS...SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. SO WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT FORECAST WITH INCREASING
POPS FOR THE DACKS. OTHERWISE...ANY BREAKS OF SUN WE RECEIVE WILL
LIKELY FILL BACK IN AS STRATUS FOR MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO THE MOIST
AND COOL CYCLONIC FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF COLDER
AIR DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ASSIST WITH MORE SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AND AS THE THERMAL COLUMN COOLS
FURTHER...SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH SNOW.
OTHERWISE...A PT-MOCLDY SKY WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZE AS MOST
AREAS DROP BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW 40F.

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOES
INCREASE A LITTLE WHICH SHOULD ASSIST WITH SUPPRESSING THE LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY FURTHER. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY TRAP
THE STRATUS DECK TO KEEP SKIES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MORE CLOUDS.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT COOLER AS WE TOO WILL FOLLOW THIS
TREND IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS THURSDAY BETWEEN 45-55F AND THURSDAY
NIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND IS COMING INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER
FOCUS...WITH MODELS INDICATING A DRIER TREND AT THIS TIME BUT STILL
COLD.

TO START THE PERIOD ON FRIDAY...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DIG CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
REGION...WHILE A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG AND RELATIVELY HIGH HEIGHTS
REMAIN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WESTERN AREAS COULD START TO SEE
THE EFFECTS FROM THE TROUGH WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR HALLOWEEN.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS FURTHER WITH THE CORE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CAROLINAS. ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CONUS...DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WITHIN THE TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
VALLEYS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS. AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY EXITS THE EAST COAST AND TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD...THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE GFS...CMC AND ECMWF ALL INDICATE AN
ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH FROM
QUEBEC AND PHASING WITH THE COASTAL ENERGY TOO LATE TO HAVE MUCH OF
AN IMPACT ON OUR REGION. WHILE A STRONG STORM IS STILL EXPECTED TO
FORM OVER THE OCEAN...IT APPEARS PRECIP DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PARENT STORM MAY BE TOO FAR EAST OF OUR AREA. SO WHILE COLD AIR WILL
FUNNEL IN LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY LIGHT QPF IS
NOW ANTICIPATED WITH PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS.
DESPITE RECENT MODEL TRENDS...THIS SCENARIO STILL HAS PLENTY OF TIME
TO CHANGE BASED ON FUTURE OBSERVATIONAL AND SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE REGION SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S ON SATURDAY...WITH ALL AREAS LIKELY DROPPING
BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE CONTINUED COOL AND
BLUSTERY...WITH A MODERATING TREND BY MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVELS CLOUDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS WITHIN A WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASING FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR
KALB/KGFL/KPSF...BUT LESS CERTAIN AT KPOU. SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY PUSHES
EASTWARD.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...WITH SPEEDS DECREASING TO 2-6 KTS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A RATHER MILD AND DRY AIR MASS IS IN PLACE WHICH WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND COOLER BUT SOMEWHAT DRIER WEATHER.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...AND
SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...BEFORE LOWERING TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS DESPITE
THE SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE TENTH TO HALF OF AN
INCH RANGE.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MOST OF THE HSA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME THE
PRECIPITATION MAY BE RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KBTV 281932
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
332 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RESIDE OVER THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT
HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA AND/OR DISSIPATED...LEAVING FORECAST
AREA WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A RETURN OF SHOWERS TONIGHT.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO ARRIVE IN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND 00Z...IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND IN SOUTHERN/EASTERN
VERMONT AROUND OR A LITTLE AFTER 06Z. EASTWARD FRONTAL PROGRESS
WILL SLOW AS IT MAKES WAY ACROSS FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. HAVE
INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS
EVENING WHERE SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY INDICATED. MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT RATHER MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA AND WEAKENS FURTHER. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT LITTLE IN WAY OF
CLEARING ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
UP...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. GENERAL
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MAY PRODUCE A
LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. TEMPS TRENDING COLDER WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...VERY ACTIVE FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY
TIME PERIOD EXPECTED ACRS THE NE CONUS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OVER PARTS OF OUR CWA. LARGE SCALE PATTERN
SHOWS AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER FLW ACRS THE CONUS...WITH DEVELOPMENT
OF SHARP/DEEP TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS AND STRONG RIDGE ACRS
THE CENTRAL PLAIN.

ALL MODELS AGREE THE ATMOSPHERE WL BE PLENTY ENERGIZED WITH
STRONG JET DYNAMICS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF MID/UPPER LVL TROF...BUT
DISAGREE SIGNIFICANTLY ON MAGNITUDE/POSITION OF CLOSING 5H/7H
CIRCULATIONS AND PLACEMENT OF SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD ON SATURDAY. LATEST 00Z ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY
STRONGER WITH 5H VORT AND CLOSING CIRCULATION OFF QUICKER ACRS THE
OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS BECOMES CUTOFF FROM THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET ACRS NC BY SATURDAY AFTN...WHILE A POORLY
DEFINED/ELONGATED SFC LOW PRES HANGS OFF THE COAST. HOWEVER...AS
ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY LOCATED OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY
INTERACTS AND PHASES WITH SYSTEM OVER NC...SFC LOW PRES RAPIDLY
DEVELOPS TO 983MB EAST OF CAPE COD BY 18Z SUNDAY...WITH A SHARP
WEST TO EAST MOISTURE/QPF/SNOWFALL PROGGED ACRS OUR CWA. GREATEST
IMPACTS WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WOULD BE ACRS OUR
CENTRAL/EASTERN SECTIONS...GIVEN TRACK OF THE SFC LOW PRES OVER
THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. THIS SOLUTION WHILE NOT SUPPORTED BY OTHER
MODELS (GFS/GEM)...DOES HAVE SOME SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE DATA...WHICH FEATURES A STRONGER/DEEPER SYSTEM WITH
GREATER IMPACTS ACRS OUR CWA.

MEANWHILE...THE LATEST 00Z GFS/GEM SHOW DIGGING 5H VORT AND A
BRIEFLY CLOSED 5H CIRCULATION ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AT 12Z
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THIS CIRCULATION WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST
AND REMAINS VERY PROGRESSIVE IN THE FLW ALOFT...WHILE SFC LOW PRES
DEVELOPS WELL OFF THE COAST. THIS FAST/PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WOULD
PROVIDE OUR CWA WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT.

GIVEN RECENT TRENDS FOR SYSTEMS TO BECOME MORE CUTOFF AND
CLOSED...FOR PREVAILING WESTERLY FLW...AND MODELS SHOWING A
DEVELOPING/AMPLIFYING RIDGE ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WL TREND TWD
THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS SUPPORTS CHC/LIKELY POPS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
DEVELOPING TROF INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR REGION.
ADDITIONAL PRECIP...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW WOULD BE LIKELY
ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN SECTION SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A
SHARP PRECIP/ACCUMULATION GRADIENT EXPECTED. VERY LIMITED QPF/SNOW
WOULD OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF THE CPV IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION
VERIFIED...WITH SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES
POSSIBLE.

PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN -8 AND -10C...WHILE 925MB
TEMPS ARE <0C BY 00Z SUNDAY WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE FREEZING
LEVEL BTWN 200 AND 400 FEET...SUPPORTING SNOW IN THE VALLEYS AWAY
FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN. GIVEN WARM GROUND TEMPS AND MARGINAL BL
PROFILES...NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION IN THE SLV/CPV. TEMPS
WL STRUGGLE IN THE 30S SAT/SUNDAY IN THE VALLEYS WITH BRISK NORTH
WINDS. IF YOU HAVE PLANS IN THE MTNS THIS WEEKEND...PLAN FOR MID
WINTER CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...AND ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY SAT
INTO SUNDAY. TOO EARLY FOR ACCUMULATIONS BUT I WOULD HAVE THE ROCK
SKIS ON STANDBY THIS WEEKEND...IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR THE 1ST
TURNS OF THE SEASON ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MANSFIELD TO KILLINGTON. OTHERWISE...SYSTEM WL SLOWLY LIFT
OUT BY MONDAY...WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRES AND TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS BY TUES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MAINLY VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW
WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH A BAND OF FRONTAL SHOWERS
FROM 01Z-06Z IN NY AND 04-13Z IN VT LINGERING LONGEST AT KRUT AND
KMPV. NOT EXPECTING VSBY TO DROP MUCH IN ANY OF THE SHOWERS WHILE
CIGS DROP TO 1500-2500 FT.

POST- FRONTAL STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH BASES RISING
FROM 2500 FT TO 3500-4000 FT BY 18Z WED. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS IN THE ALIGNED VALLEYS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND
VEER TO WESTERLY BY MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WED...MAINLY VFR CIGS. SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK
THU...MAINLY VFR CIGS. CLEARING P.M.
FRI...MAINLY VFR BUT RAIN SHOWERS FRI NIGHT CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS BY SAT MORNING.
SAT...IFR POSSIBLE WITH SNOW SHOWERS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS OF 15
TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE
BROAD LAKE...HIGHEST ON THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
LAKE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE A BIT TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...SISSON
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KBTV 281800
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
200 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING
BRINGING SOME RAIN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY MILDER TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AND BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1257 PM EDT TUESDAY...STILL SOME SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE DECREASING.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH
OF THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WILL SPREAD FURTHER NORTH WITH PASSAGE OF
WARM FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 60S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT NORTHEAST VERMONT. MILDEST READINGS
WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE TEMPS WILL
APPROACH 70 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 436 AM EDT TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SKIES
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY. EXPECTING A RATHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. EXPECTING WEDNESDAY WILL
ALSO BE FAIRLY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
UP...WITH LOWS MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. MODELS
HINTING AT A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ON THURSDAY...SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...VERY ACTIVE FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY
TIME PERIOD EXPECTED ACRS THE NE CONUS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OVER PARTS OF OUR CWA. LARGE SCALE PATTERN
SHOWS AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER FLW ACRS THE CONUS...WITH DEVELOPMENT
OF SHARP/DEEP TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS AND STRONG RIDGE ACRS
THE CENTRAL PLAIN.

ALL MODELS AGREE THE ATMOSPHERE WL BE PLENTY ENERGIZED WITH
STRONG JET DYNAMICS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF MID/UPPER LVL TROF...BUT
DISAGREE SIGNIFICANTLY ON MAGNITUDE/POSITION OF CLOSING 5H/7H
CIRCULATIONS AND PLACEMENT OF SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD ON SATURDAY. LATEST 00Z ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY
STRONGER WITH 5H VORT AND CLOSING CIRCULATION OFF QUICKER ACRS THE
OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS BECOMES CUTOFF FROM THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET ACRS NC BY SATURDAY AFTN...WHILE A POORLY
DEFINED/ELONGATED SFC LOW PRES HANGS OFF THE COAST. HOWEVER...AS
ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY LOCATED OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY
INTERACTS AND PHASES WITH SYSTEM OVER NC...SFC LOW PRES RAPIDLY
DEVELOPS TO 983MB EAST OF CAPE COD BY 18Z SUNDAY...WITH A SHARP
WEST TO EAST MOISTURE/QPF/SNOWFALL PROGGED ACRS OUR CWA. GREATEST
IMPACTS WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WOULD BE ACRS OUR
CENTRAL/EASTERN SECTIONS...GIVEN TRACK OF THE SFC LOW PRES OVER
THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. THIS SOLUTION WHILE NOT SUPPORTED BY OTHER
MODELS (GFS/GEM)...DOES HAVE SOME SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE DATA...WHICH FEATURES A STRONGER/DEEPER SYSTEM WITH
GREATER IMPACTS ACRS OUR CWA.

MEANWHILE...THE LATEST 00Z GFS/GEM SHOW DIGGING 5H VORT AND A
BRIEFLY CLOSED 5H CIRCULATION ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AT 12Z
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THIS CIRCULATION WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST
AND REMAINS VERY PROGRESSIVE IN THE FLW ALOFT...WHILE SFC LOW PRES
DEVELOPS WELL OFF THE COAST. THIS FAST/PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WOULD
PROVIDE OUR CWA WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT.

GIVEN RECENT TRENDS FOR SYSTEMS TO BECOME MORE CUTOFF AND
CLOSED...FOR PREVAILING WESTERLY FLW...AND MODELS SHOWING A
DEVELOPING/AMPLIFYING RIDGE ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WL TREND TWD
THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS SUPPORTS CHC/LIKELY POPS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
DEVELOPING TROF INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR REGION.
ADDITIONAL PRECIP...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW WOULD BE LIKELY
ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN SECTION SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A
SHARP PRECIP/ACCUMULATION GRADIENT EXPECTED. VERY LIMITED QPF/SNOW
WOULD OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF THE CPV IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION
VERIFIED...WITH SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES
POSSIBLE.

PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN -8 AND -10C...WHILE 925MB
TEMPS ARE <0C BY 00Z SUNDAY WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE FREEZING
LEVEL BTWN 200 AND 400 FEET...SUPPORTING SNOW IN THE VALLEYS AWAY
FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN. GIVEN WARM GROUND TEMPS AND MARGINAL BL
PROFILES...NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION IN THE SLV/CPV. TEMPS
WL STRUGGLE IN THE 30S SAT/SUNDAY IN THE VALLEYS WITH BRISK NORTH
WINDS. IF YOU HAVE PLANS IN THE MTNS THIS WEEKEND...PLAN FOR MID
WINTER CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...AND ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY SAT
INTO SUNDAY. TOO EARLY FOR ACCUMULATIONS BUT I WOULD HAVE THE ROCK
SKIS ON STANDBY THIS WEEKEND...IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR THE 1ST
TURNS OF THE SEASON ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MANSFIELD TO KILLINGTON. OTHERWISE...SYSTEM WL SLOWLY LIFT
OUT BY MONDAY...WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRES AND TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS BY TUES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... MAINLY VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW
WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH A BAND OF FRONTAL SHOWERS
FROM 01Z-06Z IN NY AND 04-13Z IN VT LINGERING LONGEST AT KRUT AND
KMPV. NOT EXPECTING VSBY TO DROP MUCH IN ANY OF THE SHOWERS WHILE
CIGS DROP TO 1500-2500 FT.

POST- FRONTAL STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH BASES RISING
FROM 2500 FT TO 3500-4000 FT BY 18Z WED. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS IN THE ALIGNED VALLEYS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND
VEER TO WESTERLY BY MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WED...MAINLY VFR CIGS. SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK
THU...MAINLY VFR CIGS. CLEARING P.M.
FRI...MAINLY VFR BUT RAIN SHOWERS FRI NIGHT CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS BY SAT MORNING.
SAT...IFR POSSIBLE WITH SNOW SHOWERS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KALY 281746
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
146 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THIS
MORNING.  A WARM AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES.  A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND FAIR
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT...WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS TEMPS
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY HAVE RISEN WELL INTO THE 60S AND LOWER
70S.  1KM VIS IMAGERY REVEALS SCT-BKN CI/CS ACROSS UPSTATE NY INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND SO WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS PTSUNNY
FORECAST.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STILL AMPLE TIME FOR HIGHS TO BE
ACHIEVED AS NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME AS THESE VALUES WILL
LIKELY BE OBTAINED LATE IN THE DAY...

H850 TEMPS RISE TO +12C TO +16C. MIXING TO H900 OR SO WOULD YIELD
HIGHS IN THE U60S TO L70S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION...MOHAWK VALLEY
SOUTH AND EAST...AND LOWER TO M60S TO THE NORTH. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY
WARM AIR MASS...AS THESE TEMPS WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM SE
CANADA...THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION...AND EXTREME WRN NY LATE IN
THE DAY. OVERALL...IT SHOULD BE A GREAT LATE OCTOBER DAY WITH MILDER
TEMPS AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT TRUDGES ACROSS THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY IS
SOMEWHAT OF A SLOW MOVER BASED ON THE GFS/CAN GGEM/NAM/ECMWF. THE
BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TAKE OFF TOWARDS JAMES BAY WITH THE SFC
CYCLONE STRENGTHENING. THEIR APPEARS TO BE A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH...AND THEN THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT IN WHICH THE BEST
CONVERGENCE OCCURS FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE IS
ADVECTED IN FROM THE GULF...AS THE H850 LLJ INCREASE TO 40-50 KTS.
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE SFC BOUNDARY WHICH WILL
SLOW ITS PROGRESSION A BIT. POPS WERE INCREASED TO HIGH CHC AND
LIKELY VALUES NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK
INSTABILITY...AND SHOWALTER VALUES IN THE 0C TO -1C RANGE OVER THE
SRN DACKS AND W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY VALUES
WERE USED OVER THE CAPITAL REGION...NRN CATSKILLS...AND PART OF
SRN VT BTWN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM...AND CHC VALUES FURTHER SOUTH LATER
IN THE MORNING. LOWS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE IN THE 50S...WITH
SOME U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS.

WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED THE
PREVIOUS FCST OF SLOWING DOWN THE FRONT A BIT. BETTER COLD
ADVECTION WILL KICK IN FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES IN. SOME
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...AND THE
ADIRONDACK PARK LATE IN THE DAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES WITH THAT SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THE BETTER CHC OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOUTH OF ALBANY. MAX TEMPS WILL STILL
BE MILD WITH LOWER TO M60S FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD...EXCEPT FOR SOME U50S OVER THE SRN GREENS AND
BERKS...AND 50S WILL BE COMMON WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT CLEARS THE REGION WITH
A STRONGER PUSH COLD ADVECTION. H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO -3C ACROSS
THE FCST AREA. THE COLDER AIR MASS AND FAVORABLE WESTERLY LAKE
TRAJECTORY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OVER THE
SRN DACKS...SOME OF THE PCPN MAY TRANSITION TO A LITTLE WET SNOW.
THERE IS A CHANCE SOME OF THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
MAY MOVE INTO THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY/NRN CATSKILLS OVERNIGHT.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE M30S TO L40S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

THU TO THU NIGHT...ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY SHOULD DIMINISH BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...AND THE LOW
TO MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ANTICYCLONIC. PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH AND WEST. MAX TEMPS WILL NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE OCT.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION THU
NIGHT WITH FAIR AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TURNING MUCH COLDER WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS EVEN FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN.
HOWEVER THE GUIDANCE IS HAVING DIFFICULTIES DEALING WITH THE
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE THAT DIVES OUT TO CENTRAL CANADA LEADING TO THE
AMPLIFICATION. THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH INITIALLY DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL WEAKEN WITH CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST
(MID ATLANTIC TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST) THEN TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD. WHERE THIS COASTAL LOW EXACTLY DEVELOPS AND ITS TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD WILL DETERMINE WHERE ITS WRAP-AROUND AND THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION OCCURS. THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A CUT OFF
LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY EVENING AND IT ROTATES THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND MOVES IT OFF THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY. WHILE THE GFS AND THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND OPEN WITH THE PATTERN. DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES
INDICATIONS AT THIS TIME ARE FOR THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR
TO OUR EAST...HOWEVER THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION AND
DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM.

WITH THE PATTERN SO AMPLIFIED MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION SETTING THE STAGE FOR SNOW EVEN IN THE VALLEYS AS TEMPERATURES
FALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. THE THREAT CONTINUES
ON SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE IN COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH
HIGHS ONLY ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. ITS
MUCH TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND MORE SO POTENTIAL
SNOWFALL. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL COULD PRODUCE PROBLEMS AS MANY
TREES STILL HAVE LEAVES ON THEM FROM THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT
AND SOUTHWARD. WILL KEEP MENTION OF STORM IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

IN THE WAKE OF LOW...COLD CANADIAN HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN TO
CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND START THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVELS CLOUDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS WITHIN A WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASING FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR
KALB/KGFL/KPSF...BUT LESS CERTAIN AT KPOU. SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY PUSHES
EASTWARD.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...WITH SPEEDS DECREASING TO 2-6 KTS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THIS
MORNING.  A WARM AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES.  A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND FAIR
WEATHER.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED
TODAY..BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...AND
SOUTHWEST TO WEST ON WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...BEFORE LOWERING TO 45 TO
60 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS DESPITE
THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE
TENTH TO HALF OF AN INCH RANGE.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MOST OF THE HSA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME THE
PRECIPITATION MAY BE RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 281708
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
105 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THIS
MORNING.  A WARM AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES.  A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND FAIR
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT...WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS TEMPS
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY HAVE RISEN WELL INTO THE 60S AND LOWER
70S.  1KM VIS IMAGERY REVEALS SCT-BKN CI/CS ACROSS UPSTATE NY INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND SO WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS PTSUNNY
FORECAST.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STILL AMPLE TIME FOR HIGHS TO BE
ACHIEVED AS NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME AS THESE VALUES WILL
LIKELY BE OBTAINED LATE IN THE DAY...

H850 TEMPS RISE TO +12C TO +16C. MIXING TO H900 OR SO WOULD YIELD
HIGHS IN THE U60S TO L70S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION...MOHAWK VALLEY
SOUTH AND EAST...AND LOWER TO M60S TO THE NORTH. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY
WARM AIR MASS...AS THESE TEMPS WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM SE
CANADA...THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION...AND EXTREME WRN NY LATE IN
THE DAY. OVERALL...IT SHOULD BE A GREAT LATE OCTOBER DAY WITH MILDER
TEMPS AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT TRUDGES ACROSS THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY IS
SOMEWHAT OF A SLOW MOVER BASED ON THE GFS/CAN GGEM/NAM/ECMWF. THE
BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TAKE OFF TOWARDS JAMES BAY WITH THE SFC
CYCLONE STRENGTHENING. THEIR APPEARS TO BE A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH...AND THEN THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT IN WHICH THE BEST
CONVERGENCE OCCURS FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE IS
ADVECTED IN FROM THE GULF...AS THE H850 LLJ INCREASE TO 40-50 KTS.
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE SFC BOUNDARY WHICH WILL
SLOW ITS PROGRESSION A BIT. POPS WERE INCREASED TO HIGH CHC AND
LIKELY VALUES NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK
INSTABILITY...AND SHOWALTER VALUES IN THE 0C TO -1C RANGE OVER THE
SRN DACKS AND W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY VALUES
WERE USED OVER THE CAPITAL REGION...NRN CATSKILLS...AND PART OF
SRN VT BTWN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM...AND CHC VALUES FURTHER SOUTH LATER
IN THE MORNING. LOWS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE IN THE 50S...WITH
SOME U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS.

WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. CHC POPS WERE KEPT IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED THE
PREVIOUS FCST OF SLOWING DOWN THE FRONT A BIT. BETTER COLD
ADVECTION WILL KICK IN FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES IN. SOME
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...AND THE
ADIRONDACK PARK LATE IN THE DAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES WITH THAT SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THE BETTER CHC OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOUTH OF ALBANY. MAX TEMPS WILL STILL
BE MILD WITH LOWER TO M60S FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD...EXCEPT FOR SOME U50S OVER THE SRN GREENS AND
BERKS...AND 50S WILL BE COMMON WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT CLEARS THE REGION WITH
A STRONGER PUSH COLD ADVECTION. H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO -3C ACROSS
THE FCST AREA. THE COLDER AIR MASS AND FAVORABLE WESTERLY LAKE
TRAJECTORY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OVER THE
SRN DACKS...SOME OF THE PCPN MAY TRANSITION TO A LITTLE WET SNOW.
THERE IS A CHANCE SOME OF THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
MAY MOVE INTO THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY/NRN CATSKILLS OVERNIGHT.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE M30S TO L40S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

THU TO THU NIGHT...ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY SHOULD DIMINISH BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...AND THE LOW
TO MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ANTICYCLONIC. PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND MOSTLY
CLOUDY NORTH AND WEST. MAX TEMPS WILL NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE OCT.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION THU
NIGHT WITH FAIR AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TURNING MUCH COLDER WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS EVEN FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN.
HOWEVER THE GUIDANCE IS HAVING DIFFICULTIES DEALING WITH THE
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE THAT DIVES OUT TO CENTRAL CANADA LEADING TO THE
AMPLIFICATION. THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH INITIALLY DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL WEAKEN WITH CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST
(MID ATLANTIC TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST) THEN TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD. WHERE THIS COASTAL LOW EXACTLY DEVELOPS AND ITS TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD WILL DETERMINE WHERE ITS WRAP-AROUND AND THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION OCCURS. THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A CUT OFF
LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY EVENING AND IT ROTATES THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND MOVES IT OFF THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY. WHILE THE GFS AND THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND OPEN WITH THE PATTERN. DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES
INDICATIONS AT THIS TIME ARE FOR THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR
TO OUR EAST...HOWEVER THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION AND
DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM.

WITH THE PATTERN SO AMPLIFIED MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION SETTING THE STAGE FOR SNOW EVEN IN THE VALLEYS AS TEMPERATURES
FALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. THE THREAT CONTINUES
ON SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE IN COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH
HIGHS ONLY ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. ITS
MUCH TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND MORE SO POTENTIAL
SNOWFALL. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL COULD PRODUCE PROBLEMS AS MANY
TREES STILL HAVE LEAVES ON THEM FROM THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT
AND SOUTHWARD. WILL KEEP MENTION OF STORM IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

IN THE WAKE OF LOW...COLD CANADIAN HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN TO
CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND START THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER MAINLY ALONG INTERSTATE 90 AND TO THE NORTH
AHEAD OF WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS THROUGH THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL IMPACT KGFL EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE WARM FRONT THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SKIES WILL CLEAR FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE TAF SITES MAINLY AFTER 06Z/WED.
CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING
WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AS THE SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

CALM WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY LATER THIS MORNING AT LESS THAN 10
KNOTS AND PERSIST INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THIS
MORNING.  A WARM AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES.  A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND FAIR
WEATHER.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED
TODAY..BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...AND
SOUTHWEST TO WEST ON WEDNESDAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

THE RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...BEFORE LOWERING TO 45 TO
60 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS DESPITE
THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE
TENTH TO HALF OF AN INCH RANGE.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MOST OF THE HSA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME THE
PRECIPITATION MAY BE RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA











000
FXUS61 KBTV 281702
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
102 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING
BRINGING SOME RAIN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY MILDER TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AND BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1257 PM EDT TUESDAY...STILL SOME SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE DECREASING.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH
OF THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND WILL SPREAD FURTHER NORTH WITH PASSAGE OF
WARM FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 60S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT NORTHEAST VERMONT. MILDEST READINGS
WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE TEMPS WILL
APPROACH 70 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 436 AM EDT TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SKIES
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY. EXPECTING A RATHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. EXPECTING WEDNESDAY WILL
ALSO BE FAIRLY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
UP...WITH LOWS MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. MODELS
HINTING AT A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ON THURSDAY...SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...VERY ACTIVE FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY
TIME PERIOD EXPECTED ACRS THE NE CONUS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OVER PARTS OF OUR CWA. LARGE SCALE PATTERN
SHOWS AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER FLW ACRS THE CONUS...WITH DEVELOPMENT
OF SHARP/DEEP TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS AND STRONG RIDGE ACRS
THE CENTRAL PLAIN.

ALL MODELS AGREE THE ATMOSPHERE WL BE PLENTY ENERGIZED WITH
STRONG JET DYNAMICS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF MID/UPPER LVL TROF...BUT
DISAGREE SIGNIFICANTLY ON MAGNITUDE/POSITION OF CLOSING 5H/7H
CIRCULATIONS AND PLACEMENT OF SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD ON SATURDAY. LATEST 00Z ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY
STRONGER WITH 5H VORT AND CLOSING CIRCULATION OFF QUICKER ACRS THE
OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS BECOMES CUTOFF FROM THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET ACRS NC BY SATURDAY AFTN...WHILE A POORLY
DEFINED/ELONGATED SFC LOW PRES HANGS OFF THE COAST. HOWEVER...AS
ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY LOCATED OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY
INTERACTS AND PHASES WITH SYSTEM OVER NC...SFC LOW PRES RAPIDLY
DEVELOPS TO 983MB EAST OF CAPE COD BY 18Z SUNDAY...WITH A SHARP
WEST TO EAST MOISTURE/QPF/SNOWFALL PROGGED ACRS OUR CWA. GREATEST
IMPACTS WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WOULD BE ACRS OUR
CENTRAL/EASTERN SECTIONS...GIVEN TRACK OF THE SFC LOW PRES OVER
THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. THIS SOLUTION WHILE NOT SUPPORTED BY OTHER
MODELS (GFS/GEM)...DOES HAVE SOME SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE DATA...WHICH FEATURES A STRONGER/DEEPER SYSTEM WITH
GREATER IMPACTS ACRS OUR CWA.

MEANWHILE...THE LATEST 00Z GFS/GEM SHOW DIGGING 5H VORT AND A
BRIEFLY CLOSED 5H CIRCULATION ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AT 12Z
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THIS CIRCULATION WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST
AND REMAINS VERY PROGRESSIVE IN THE FLW ALOFT...WHILE SFC LOW PRES
DEVELOPS WELL OFF THE COAST. THIS FAST/PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WOULD
PROVIDE OUR CWA WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT.

GIVEN RECENT TRENDS FOR SYSTEMS TO BECOME MORE CUTOFF AND
CLOSED...FOR PREVAILING WESTERLY FLW...AND MODELS SHOWING A
DEVELOPING/AMPLIFYING RIDGE ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WL TREND TWD
THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS SUPPORTS CHC/LIKELY POPS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
DEVELOPING TROF INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR REGION.
ADDITIONAL PRECIP...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW WOULD BE LIKELY
ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN SECTION SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A
SHARP PRECIP/ACCUMULATION GRADIENT EXPECTED. VERY LIMITED QPF/SNOW
WOULD OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF THE CPV IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION
VERIFIED...WITH SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES
POSSIBLE.

PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN -8 AND -10C...WHILE 925MB
TEMPS ARE <0C BY 00Z SUNDAY WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE FREEZING
LEVEL BTWN 200 AND 400 FEET...SUPPORTING SNOW IN THE VALLEYS AWAY
FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN. GIVEN WARM GROUND TEMPS AND MARGINAL BL
PROFILES...NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION IN THE SLV/CPV. TEMPS
WL STRUGGLE IN THE 30S SAT/SUNDAY IN THE VALLEYS WITH BRISK NORTH
WINDS. IF YOU HAVE PLANS IN THE MTNS THIS WEEKEND...PLAN FOR MID
WINTER CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...AND ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY SAT
INTO SUNDAY. TOO EARLY FOR ACCUMULATIONS BUT I WOULD HAVE THE ROCK
SKIS ON STANDBY THIS WEEKEND...IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR THE 1ST
TURNS OF THE SEASON ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MTNS FROM JAY
PEAK TO MANSFIELD TO KILLINGTON. OTHERWISE...SYSTEM WL SLOWLY LIFT
OUT BY MONDAY...WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRES AND TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS BY TUES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...LIGHT RAIN WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE
SHOWERS CONT TO LIFT NE ACRS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING. HAVE
NOTED SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ACRS THE OTTAWA VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND IF CRNT TRENDS CONT VCTS COULD OCCUR AT MSS BTWN
12-14Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
THIS MORNING...WITH THE RAIN LIFTING NE OF OUR TAF SITES BY 15Z. ALSO...LOOK
FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING TO BECOME
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
IN THE ALIGNED VALLEYS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WL REDEVELOP AFT 00Z
WEDS...FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR TAF SITES WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. ALSO...A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WITH THE BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK SFC COLD FRNT.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... SFC COLD FRNT WL
PRODUCE A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN ON WEDS...WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING...BUT SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK.
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR TAF SITES LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WITH RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY BY SAT
MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS WL BE LIKELY AT MPV/SLK...WITH DEVELOPING
IFR POSSIBLE AT BTV/RUT BY SAT MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH LOWERING
CIGS/VIS FROM UPSLOPE FLW. IN ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST ARE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities