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000
FXUS61 KALY 220553
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
153 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM...HOURLY TEMP GRIDS AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP GRID WERE A
LITTLE TOO COLD AND HAVE RAISED TEMPS BY AROUND 3 DEGREES...WITH
LOWS NOW FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED
THE POP/WX GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THE BIGGEST CHANGE
WAS TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ARE FOCUSING
BANDS OF SHOWERS WHICH ARE MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE FA AS INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST IS
ALLOWING THE SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
SE CATSKILL REGION. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO SOME RAIN SHOULD REACH MUCH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS MAY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT...ESP FOR
AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AS THE BULK OF FORCING SHIFTS TO OUR
S AND W ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND
ALSO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IN THE REGION OF STRENGTHENING WARM
ADVECTION. HAVE KEPT CHC POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE GENERAL AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO
DECREASE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...MAY REMAIN A BIT GREATER ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

SPOTTY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY ALSO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE SHOWERS AS LOW
LEVELS MOISTEN...AND INTERACT WITH THE TERRAIN.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...AT THIS TIME...BARRING ANY SMALLER...UNRESOLVED
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTH...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT OVER OUR REGION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...AND
PIVOTS BACK WESTWARD...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND
THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND NW MA. FURTHER S AND W...AREAL
COVERAGE MAY ONCE AGAIN REMAIN SPOTTY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
EVEN A POSSIBILITY OF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN SOME
AREAS DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOISTURE DEEPENS
AGAIN FROM NE TO SW LATE IN THE DAY. ASSUMING RAINFALL REMAINS
FAIRLY LIMITED...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

WED NT-THU...THIS APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MODERATE TO PERHAPS LOCALLY HVY
POCKETS OF RAIN...ESP ACROSS HIGHER...E-FACING SLOPES ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...THE SE ADIRONDACKS...AND ALSO THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS. THE BULK OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF AN E/NE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KT TRANSLATING
WESTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA...ALONG WITH DEEP LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING AROUND THE W/NW PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW...SHOULD FAVOR SOME BANDS OF MOD-HVY RAINFALL PIVOTING
WEST...THEN SW ACROSS THE REGION LATE WED NT INTO AT LEAST THU AM.
AGAIN...AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE SHOULD FAVOR
THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMTS FROM SOUTHERN VT INTO SE
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR. A
SECONDARY MAX OF AROUND 2 INCHES APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS DUE TO UPSLOPE...WHILE A MIN SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE
IMMEDIATE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY 0.5-1.5 INCHES
OCCURRING. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
AS WELL...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 35 MPH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...BERKSHIRES
AND TACONICS...AND POSSIBLY WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO SOME FUNNELING EFFECTS...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH COULD ALSO OCCUR. WED NT MIN TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY FALL
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...AND MAXES MAY REMAIN BELOW 50 IN
MANY AREAS ON THU DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND A PERSISTENT NORTH WIND
FUNNELING COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR SOUTHWARD...WHILE WET BULB
EFFECTS OCCUR WITH THE FALLING RAINFALL. IF THE RAIN DECREASES IN
AREAL COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON...SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS WOULD
THEN BE POSSIBLE.

THU NT...SOME ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO ROTATE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION...ESP EARLY AND FOR AREAS NEAR
AND E OF THE HUDSON RIVER. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN
MOST AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT UNSETTLED AND ENDS WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS.

ON FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN THE
GULF OF MAINE WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW BACK ACRS THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP
CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACRS THE NRN
TWO THIRDS OF THE FA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY
TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.

FOR SATURDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW LINGER
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING INTO THE FA FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT THIS POINT LOOK MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILDER DAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE CAROLINAS AND A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/..
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA WILL
PROVIDE A MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS DECREASED SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH FOR THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CIGS HAVE LOWERED INTO IFR RANGE AT
MOST OF THE TERMINALS AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN IFR RANGE WITH
OCCASIONAL LOWER-END MVFR LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
STEADY RAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS CLOSER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE WITH
MOIST LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PERSISTING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS...INCREASING TO
10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS AS THE COASTAL LOW
STRENGTHENS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA...RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...EVEN THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND
WET AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION.
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH
THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO
EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS...UP TO 2 INCHES...WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND
POSSIBLY THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS...GENERALLY 0.5 TO
1.5 INCHES...OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 220553
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
153 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM...HOURLY TEMP GRIDS AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP GRID WERE A
LITTLE TOO COLD AND HAVE RAISED TEMPS BY AROUND 3 DEGREES...WITH
LOWS NOW FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED
THE POP/WX GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THE BIGGEST CHANGE
WAS TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ARE FOCUSING
BANDS OF SHOWERS WHICH ARE MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE FA AS INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST IS
ALLOWING THE SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
SE CATSKILL REGION. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO SOME RAIN SHOULD REACH MUCH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS MAY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT...ESP FOR
AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AS THE BULK OF FORCING SHIFTS TO OUR
S AND W ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND
ALSO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IN THE REGION OF STRENGTHENING WARM
ADVECTION. HAVE KEPT CHC POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE GENERAL AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO
DECREASE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...MAY REMAIN A BIT GREATER ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

SPOTTY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY ALSO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE SHOWERS AS LOW
LEVELS MOISTEN...AND INTERACT WITH THE TERRAIN.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...AT THIS TIME...BARRING ANY SMALLER...UNRESOLVED
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTH...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT OVER OUR REGION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...AND
PIVOTS BACK WESTWARD...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND
THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND NW MA. FURTHER S AND W...AREAL
COVERAGE MAY ONCE AGAIN REMAIN SPOTTY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
EVEN A POSSIBILITY OF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN SOME
AREAS DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOISTURE DEEPENS
AGAIN FROM NE TO SW LATE IN THE DAY. ASSUMING RAINFALL REMAINS
FAIRLY LIMITED...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

WED NT-THU...THIS APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MODERATE TO PERHAPS LOCALLY HVY
POCKETS OF RAIN...ESP ACROSS HIGHER...E-FACING SLOPES ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...THE SE ADIRONDACKS...AND ALSO THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS. THE BULK OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF AN E/NE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KT TRANSLATING
WESTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA...ALONG WITH DEEP LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING AROUND THE W/NW PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW...SHOULD FAVOR SOME BANDS OF MOD-HVY RAINFALL PIVOTING
WEST...THEN SW ACROSS THE REGION LATE WED NT INTO AT LEAST THU AM.
AGAIN...AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE SHOULD FAVOR
THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMTS FROM SOUTHERN VT INTO SE
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR. A
SECONDARY MAX OF AROUND 2 INCHES APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS DUE TO UPSLOPE...WHILE A MIN SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE
IMMEDIATE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY 0.5-1.5 INCHES
OCCURRING. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
AS WELL...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 35 MPH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...BERKSHIRES
AND TACONICS...AND POSSIBLY WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO SOME FUNNELING EFFECTS...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH COULD ALSO OCCUR. WED NT MIN TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY FALL
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...AND MAXES MAY REMAIN BELOW 50 IN
MANY AREAS ON THU DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND A PERSISTENT NORTH WIND
FUNNELING COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR SOUTHWARD...WHILE WET BULB
EFFECTS OCCUR WITH THE FALLING RAINFALL. IF THE RAIN DECREASES IN
AREAL COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON...SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS WOULD
THEN BE POSSIBLE.

THU NT...SOME ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO ROTATE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION...ESP EARLY AND FOR AREAS NEAR
AND E OF THE HUDSON RIVER. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN
MOST AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT UNSETTLED AND ENDS WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS.

ON FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN THE
GULF OF MAINE WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW BACK ACRS THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP
CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACRS THE NRN
TWO THIRDS OF THE FA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY
TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.

FOR SATURDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW LINGER
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING INTO THE FA FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT THIS POINT LOOK MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILDER DAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE CAROLINAS AND A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/..
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA WILL
PROVIDE A MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS DECREASED SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH FOR THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CIGS HAVE LOWERED INTO IFR RANGE AT
MOST OF THE TERMINALS AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN IFR RANGE WITH
OCCASIONAL LOWER-END MVFR LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
STEADY RAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW
TRACKS CLOSER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE WITH
MOIST LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PERSISTING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS...INCREASING TO
10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS AS THE COASTAL LOW
STRENGTHENS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA...RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...EVEN THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND
WET AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION.
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH
THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO
EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS...UP TO 2 INCHES...WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND
POSSIBLY THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS...GENERALLY 0.5 TO
1.5 INCHES...OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBTV 220551
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
151 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL IMPACT NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
VERMONT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR
THE NEW JERSEY SHORE TONIGHT...AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS
CAPE COD BY THURSDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO
TRANSITION TO A STEADY RAINFALL BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS NOVA
SCOTIA BY FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 121 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
VERMONT WHERE DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE AND
SPREAD MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 406 PM EDT TUESDAY...

TOMORROW...THE CUTOFF LOW REACHES THE DELMARVA REGION...AND COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS N/NE FROM SE NJ.  A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL HELP ADVECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO VT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
BY THE AFTERNOON.  SCT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO BE MORE NUMEROUS.  IT
WILL BE BREEZY AND COOL...AND THE POPS WERE INCREASE TO LIKELY
VALUES BY THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS WILL ONLY BE  IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND U40S TO L50S IN THE VALLEYS.

WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A SLUG OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE PIVOTS INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE OCCLUDED
CYCLONE WILL BE A SLOW MOVER AND ANOMALOUS PWAT AIR /1 TO 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ WILL MOVE OVER VT AND NRN NY.
THE EASTERLY H850 LLJ CRANKS UP TO 40-60 KTS. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF
THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND
DACKS. PERIODS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR
NOW...HAVE PHRASED AS MDT RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS. THE POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS FOR SOME DOWNSLOPING IN THE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS. TOTAL RAINFALL DURING THIS 24-HR STRETCH COULD BE IN THE
HALF AN INCH TO INCH AND A HALF RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN U30S TO M40S IN THE DANK AIR MASS. HIGHS
WILL BE COOL ON THURSDAY IN THE L40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS TO THE
L50S IN THE VALLEYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE SYSTEM BECOMES EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC IN
STRUCTURE WITH DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION ENHANCING THE PCPN
OVER THE REGION. THE ECMWF/GFS INDICATE INTERMITTENT SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS THE OCCLUDED CYCLONE
MEANDERS OVER CAPE COD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U30S TO L40S OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 206 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE UNSETTLED EARLY ON...BUT A TREND TO FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF TEMPS IN
THE LONG TERM...WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANGES IN POPS AND WX BASED ON A
BLEND TO THE GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE OCCLUDED LOW SLOWLY LIFTS N/NE FROM NEAR CAPE
COD. THIS STACKED SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MEANDER TOWARDS THE GULF OF
MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA BY NIGHTFALL. SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL
WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM FOR SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. THE
HIGHER POPS ARE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND THE NRN
PORTIONS OF VT.  SEVERAL SPOKES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SPIRAL
AROUND THE SYSTEM...AND THERE COULD BE SOME W/NW UPSLOPE OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT OFF THE GREEN MTNS AND NRN DACKS. AN ADDITIONAL
QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE CYCLONE SLOWLY PULLING
AWAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO U40S OVER THE MTNS...AND LOWER
TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO M40S.

SAT-SUN NIGHT...UNFORTUNATELY ONE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE
AWAY...AND ANOTHER ONE DESCENDS S/SE FROM ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY.
THERE MAY INITIALLY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWERS...BUT THIS
NEXT UPPER LOW MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHWARD. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS. SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS WERE
PLACED IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER POPS WERE
PLACED FROM RUTLAND AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN NORTH AND EAST. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGH PEAKS...AS THE H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0 TO
+2C AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
TAPER OFF SUNDAY MORNING...WITH MAINLY ISOLD SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER NRN NY...AND WEST OF THE GREEN
MTNS. SOME OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS IN THE W/NW FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALONG THE WRN SPINE OF THE SRN GREENS. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS /POSSIBLY A FEW
U50S ON SAT/...AND 40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS. LOWS SATURDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO L40S.

MON-TUE...IMPROVING WX TREND FOR NRN NY AND UPSTATE VT WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TO OPEN THE WEEK. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED...AND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...A RETURN S/SW
FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION. ACCORDING THE GFS H850
TEMPS SOAR BACK TO +12C TO +15C ON TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE M50S TO L60S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND LOWER TO M50S OVER THE MTNS. A MILD AND BREEZY NIGHT
IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO U40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS EXCEPT L40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS. TEMPS COULD BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER TO
M60S...AND EVEN A FEW U60S IN THE VALLEYS. THE HIGH PEAKS WILL
EVEN BE IN MID TO U50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FLIGHT CATEGORIES RANGING FROM MVFR TO LIFR AT BTV WILL CONTINUE
TODAY WITH TENDENCY TOWARD MAINLY IFR THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS
AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MOVES VERY SLOWLY
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW
OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE STREAMING INTO NEW ENGLAND. DRIZZLE AND
PATCHES OF RAIN WILL BECOME PREVAILING IFR BY AFTERNOON AT MOST
TAF SITES. KMSS MAY REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO AVOID THE
RAINFALL...AND KEEP FLYING CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT BETTER THERE.

WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHERLY AT AROUND 5 TO 15 KTS
WITH SOME G20 KT AT KMSS. WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON
FROM A CONTINUED NORTHERLY DIRECTION AT 10-15 KTS. WINDS MAY GUST
TO 20 TO 25 KTS KBTV/KPBG/KMSS...AS WINDS ARE FUNNELED DOWN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURS - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STARTING OUT LOW BEFORE THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LARGER RIVERS ACROSS THE
AREA ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 10 FEET BELOW NORMAL. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL COME OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND WE
ARE LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK. RIVER LEVELS
WILL RISE AS A RESULT...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED NONETHELESS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...SISSON
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 220551
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
151 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL IMPACT NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
VERMONT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR
THE NEW JERSEY SHORE TONIGHT...AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS
CAPE COD BY THURSDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO
TRANSITION TO A STEADY RAINFALL BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS NOVA
SCOTIA BY FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 121 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
VERMONT WHERE DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE AND
SPREAD MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 406 PM EDT TUESDAY...

TOMORROW...THE CUTOFF LOW REACHES THE DELMARVA REGION...AND COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS N/NE FROM SE NJ.  A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL HELP ADVECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO VT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
BY THE AFTERNOON.  SCT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO BE MORE NUMEROUS.  IT
WILL BE BREEZY AND COOL...AND THE POPS WERE INCREASE TO LIKELY
VALUES BY THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS WILL ONLY BE  IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND U40S TO L50S IN THE VALLEYS.

WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A SLUG OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE PIVOTS INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE OCCLUDED
CYCLONE WILL BE A SLOW MOVER AND ANOMALOUS PWAT AIR /1 TO 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ WILL MOVE OVER VT AND NRN NY.
THE EASTERLY H850 LLJ CRANKS UP TO 40-60 KTS. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF
THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND
DACKS. PERIODS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR
NOW...HAVE PHRASED AS MDT RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS. THE POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS FOR SOME DOWNSLOPING IN THE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS. TOTAL RAINFALL DURING THIS 24-HR STRETCH COULD BE IN THE
HALF AN INCH TO INCH AND A HALF RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN U30S TO M40S IN THE DANK AIR MASS. HIGHS
WILL BE COOL ON THURSDAY IN THE L40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS TO THE
L50S IN THE VALLEYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE SYSTEM BECOMES EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC IN
STRUCTURE WITH DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION ENHANCING THE PCPN
OVER THE REGION. THE ECMWF/GFS INDICATE INTERMITTENT SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS THE OCCLUDED CYCLONE
MEANDERS OVER CAPE COD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U30S TO L40S OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 206 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE UNSETTLED EARLY ON...BUT A TREND TO FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF TEMPS IN
THE LONG TERM...WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANGES IN POPS AND WX BASED ON A
BLEND TO THE GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE OCCLUDED LOW SLOWLY LIFTS N/NE FROM NEAR CAPE
COD. THIS STACKED SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MEANDER TOWARDS THE GULF OF
MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA BY NIGHTFALL. SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL
WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM FOR SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. THE
HIGHER POPS ARE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND THE NRN
PORTIONS OF VT.  SEVERAL SPOKES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SPIRAL
AROUND THE SYSTEM...AND THERE COULD BE SOME W/NW UPSLOPE OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT OFF THE GREEN MTNS AND NRN DACKS. AN ADDITIONAL
QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE CYCLONE SLOWLY PULLING
AWAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO U40S OVER THE MTNS...AND LOWER
TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO M40S.

SAT-SUN NIGHT...UNFORTUNATELY ONE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE
AWAY...AND ANOTHER ONE DESCENDS S/SE FROM ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY.
THERE MAY INITIALLY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWERS...BUT THIS
NEXT UPPER LOW MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHWARD. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS. SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS WERE
PLACED IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER POPS WERE
PLACED FROM RUTLAND AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN NORTH AND EAST. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGH PEAKS...AS THE H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0 TO
+2C AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
TAPER OFF SUNDAY MORNING...WITH MAINLY ISOLD SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER NRN NY...AND WEST OF THE GREEN
MTNS. SOME OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS IN THE W/NW FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALONG THE WRN SPINE OF THE SRN GREENS. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS /POSSIBLY A FEW
U50S ON SAT/...AND 40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS. LOWS SATURDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO L40S.

MON-TUE...IMPROVING WX TREND FOR NRN NY AND UPSTATE VT WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TO OPEN THE WEEK. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED...AND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...A RETURN S/SW
FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION. ACCORDING THE GFS H850
TEMPS SOAR BACK TO +12C TO +15C ON TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE M50S TO L60S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND LOWER TO M50S OVER THE MTNS. A MILD AND BREEZY NIGHT
IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO U40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS EXCEPT L40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS. TEMPS COULD BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER TO
M60S...AND EVEN A FEW U60S IN THE VALLEYS. THE HIGH PEAKS WILL
EVEN BE IN MID TO U50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FLIGHT CATEGORIES RANGING FROM MVFR TO LIFR AT BTV WILL CONTINUE
TODAY WITH TENDENCY TOWARD MAINLY IFR THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS
AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MOVES VERY SLOWLY
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW
OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE STREAMING INTO NEW ENGLAND. DRIZZLE AND
PATCHES OF RAIN WILL BECOME PREVAILING IFR BY AFTERNOON AT MOST
TAF SITES. KMSS MAY REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO AVOID THE
RAINFALL...AND KEEP FLYING CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT BETTER THERE.

WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHERLY AT AROUND 5 TO 15 KTS
WITH SOME G20 KT AT KMSS. WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON
FROM A CONTINUED NORTHERLY DIRECTION AT 10-15 KTS. WINDS MAY GUST
TO 20 TO 25 KTS KBTV/KPBG/KMSS...AS WINDS ARE FUNNELED DOWN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURS - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STARTING OUT LOW BEFORE THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LARGER RIVERS ACROSS THE
AREA ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 10 FEET BELOW NORMAL. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL COME OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND WE
ARE LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK. RIVER LEVELS
WILL RISE AS A RESULT...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED NONETHELESS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...SISSON
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KALY 220544
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM...HOURLY TEMP GRIDS AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP GRID WERE A
LITTLE TOO COLD AND HAVE RAISED TEMPS BY AROUND 3 DEGREES...WITH
LOWS NOW FORECSAT TO BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED
THE POP/WX GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THE BIGGEST CHANGE
WAS TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ARE FOCUSING
BANDS OF SHOWERS WHICH ARE MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE FA AS INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST IS
ALLOWING THE SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
SE CATSKILL REGION. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO SOME RAIN SHOULD REACH MUCH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS MAY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT...ESP FOR
AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AS THE BULK OF FORCING SHIFTS TO OUR
S AND W ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND
ALSO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IN THE REGION OF STRENGTHENING WARM
ADVECTION. HAVE KEPT CHC POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE GENERAL AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO
DECREASE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...MAY REMAIN A BIT GREATER ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

SPOTTY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY ALSO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE SHOWERS AS LOW
LEVELS MOISTEN...AND INTERACT WITH THE TERRAIN.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...AT THIS TIME...BARRING ANY SMALLER...UNRESOLVED
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTH...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT OVER OUR REGION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...AND
PIVOTS BACK WESTWARD...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND
THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND NW MA. FURTHER S AND W...AREAL
COVERAGE MAY ONCE AGAIN REMAIN SPOTTY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
EVEN A POSSIBILITY OF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN SOME
AREAS DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOISTURE DEEPENS
AGAIN FROM NE TO SW LATE IN THE DAY. ASSUMING RAINFALL REMAINS
FAIRLY LIMITED...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

WED NT-THU...THIS APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MODERATE TO PERHAPS LOCALLY HVY
POCKETS OF RAIN...ESP ACROSS HIGHER...E-FACING SLOPES ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...THE SE ADIRONDACKS...AND ALSO THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS. THE BULK OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF AN E/NE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KT TRANSLATING
WESTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA...ALONG WITH DEEP LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING AROUND THE W/NW PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW...SHOULD FAVOR SOME BANDS OF MOD-HVY RAINFALL PIVOTING
WEST...THEN SW ACROSS THE REGION LATE WED NT INTO AT LEAST THU AM.
AGAIN...AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE SHOULD FAVOR
THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMTS FROM SOUTHERN VT INTO SE
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR. A
SECONDARY MAX OF AROUND 2 INCHES APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS DUE TO UPSLOPE...WHILE A MIN SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE
IMMEDIATE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY 0.5-1.5 INCHES
OCCURRING. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
AS WELL...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 35 MPH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...BERKSHIRES
AND TACONICS...AND POSSIBLY WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO SOME FUNNELING EFFECTS...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH COULD ALSO OCCUR. WED NT MIN TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY FALL
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...AND MAXES MAY REMAIN BELOW 50 IN
MANY AREAS ON THU DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND A PERSISTENT NORTH WIND
FUNNELING COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR SOUTHWARD...WHILE WET BULB
EFFECTS OCCUR WITH THE FALLING RAINFALL. IF THE RAIN DECREASES IN
AREAL COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON...SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS WOULD
THEN BE POSSIBLE.

THU NT...SOME ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO ROTATE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION...ESP EARLY AND FOR AREAS NEAR
AND E OF THE HUDSON RIVER. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN
MOST AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT UNSETTLED AND ENDS WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS.

ON FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN THE
GULF OF MAINE WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW BACK ACRS THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP
CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACRS THE NRN
TWO THIRDS OF THE FA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY
TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.

FOR SATURDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW LINGER
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING INTO THE FA FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT THIS POINT LOOK MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILDER DAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE CAROLINAS AND A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z THURSDAY. MAINLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE RADAR THIS EVENING SO VCSH/-SHRA IN
FORECAST AT THE TAF SITES. EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS THE MAIN UPPER ENERGY TRACKS
CLOSER TO THE REGION AND THE COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA...RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...EVEN THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND
WET AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION.
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH
THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO
EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS...UP TO 2 INCHES...WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND
POSSIBLY THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS...GENERALLY 0.5 TO
1.5 INCHES...OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM











000
FXUS61 KALY 220544
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM...HOURLY TEMP GRIDS AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP GRID WERE A
LITTLE TOO COLD AND HAVE RAISED TEMPS BY AROUND 3 DEGREES...WITH
LOWS NOW FORECSAT TO BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED
THE POP/WX GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THE BIGGEST CHANGE
WAS TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ARE FOCUSING
BANDS OF SHOWERS WHICH ARE MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE FA AS INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST IS
ALLOWING THE SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
SE CATSKILL REGION. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO SOME RAIN SHOULD REACH MUCH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS MAY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT...ESP FOR
AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AS THE BULK OF FORCING SHIFTS TO OUR
S AND W ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND
ALSO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IN THE REGION OF STRENGTHENING WARM
ADVECTION. HAVE KEPT CHC POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE GENERAL AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO
DECREASE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...MAY REMAIN A BIT GREATER ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

SPOTTY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY ALSO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE SHOWERS AS LOW
LEVELS MOISTEN...AND INTERACT WITH THE TERRAIN.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...AT THIS TIME...BARRING ANY SMALLER...UNRESOLVED
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTH...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT OVER OUR REGION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...AND
PIVOTS BACK WESTWARD...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND
THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND NW MA. FURTHER S AND W...AREAL
COVERAGE MAY ONCE AGAIN REMAIN SPOTTY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
EVEN A POSSIBILITY OF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN SOME
AREAS DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOISTURE DEEPENS
AGAIN FROM NE TO SW LATE IN THE DAY. ASSUMING RAINFALL REMAINS
FAIRLY LIMITED...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

WED NT-THU...THIS APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MODERATE TO PERHAPS LOCALLY HVY
POCKETS OF RAIN...ESP ACROSS HIGHER...E-FACING SLOPES ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...THE SE ADIRONDACKS...AND ALSO THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS. THE BULK OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF AN E/NE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KT TRANSLATING
WESTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA...ALONG WITH DEEP LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING AROUND THE W/NW PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW...SHOULD FAVOR SOME BANDS OF MOD-HVY RAINFALL PIVOTING
WEST...THEN SW ACROSS THE REGION LATE WED NT INTO AT LEAST THU AM.
AGAIN...AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE SHOULD FAVOR
THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMTS FROM SOUTHERN VT INTO SE
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR. A
SECONDARY MAX OF AROUND 2 INCHES APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS DUE TO UPSLOPE...WHILE A MIN SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE
IMMEDIATE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY 0.5-1.5 INCHES
OCCURRING. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
AS WELL...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 35 MPH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...BERKSHIRES
AND TACONICS...AND POSSIBLY WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO SOME FUNNELING EFFECTS...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH COULD ALSO OCCUR. WED NT MIN TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY FALL
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...AND MAXES MAY REMAIN BELOW 50 IN
MANY AREAS ON THU DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND A PERSISTENT NORTH WIND
FUNNELING COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR SOUTHWARD...WHILE WET BULB
EFFECTS OCCUR WITH THE FALLING RAINFALL. IF THE RAIN DECREASES IN
AREAL COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON...SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS WOULD
THEN BE POSSIBLE.

THU NT...SOME ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO ROTATE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION...ESP EARLY AND FOR AREAS NEAR
AND E OF THE HUDSON RIVER. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN
MOST AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT UNSETTLED AND ENDS WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS.

ON FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN THE
GULF OF MAINE WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW BACK ACRS THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP
CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACRS THE NRN
TWO THIRDS OF THE FA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY
TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.

FOR SATURDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW LINGER
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING INTO THE FA FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT THIS POINT LOOK MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILDER DAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE CAROLINAS AND A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z THURSDAY. MAINLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE RADAR THIS EVENING SO VCSH/-SHRA IN
FORECAST AT THE TAF SITES. EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS THE MAIN UPPER ENERGY TRACKS
CLOSER TO THE REGION AND THE COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA...RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...EVEN THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND
WET AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION.
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH
THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO
EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS...UP TO 2 INCHES...WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND
POSSIBLY THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS...GENERALLY 0.5 TO
1.5 INCHES...OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM











000
FXUS61 KBTV 220521
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
121 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL IMPACT NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
VERMONT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR
THE NEW JERSEY SHORE TONIGHT...AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS
CAPE COD BY THURSDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO
TRANSITION TO A STEADY RAINFALL BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS NOVA
SCOTIA BY FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 121 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
VERMONT WHERE DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE AND
SPREAD MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 406 PM EDT TUESDAY...

TOMORROW...THE CUTOFF LOW REACHES THE DELMARVA REGION...AND COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS N/NE FROM SE NJ.  A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL HELP ADVECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO VT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
BY THE AFTERNOON.  SCT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO BE MORE NUMEROUS.  IT
WILL BE BREEZY AND COOL...AND THE POPS WERE INCREASE TO LIKELY
VALUES BY THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS WILL ONLY BE  IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND U40S TO L50S IN THE VALLEYS.

WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A SLUG OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE PIVOTS INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE OCCLUDED
CYCLONE WILL BE A SLOW MOVER AND ANOMALOUS PWAT AIR /1 TO 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ WILL MOVE OVER VT AND NRN NY.
THE EASTERLY H850 LLJ CRANKS UP TO 40-60 KTS. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF
THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND
DACKS. PERIODS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR
NOW...HAVE PHRASED AS MDT RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS. THE POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS FOR SOME DOWNSLOPING IN THE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS. TOTAL RAINFALL DURING THIS 24-HR STRETCH COULD BE IN THE
HALF AN INCH TO INCH AND A HALF RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN U30S TO M40S IN THE DANK AIR MASS. HIGHS
WILL BE COOL ON THURSDAY IN THE L40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS TO THE
L50S IN THE VALLEYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE SYSTEM BECOMES EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC IN
STRUCTURE WITH DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION ENHANCING THE PCPN
OVER THE REGION. THE ECMWF/GFS INDICATE INTERMITTENT SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS THE OCCLUDED CYCLONE
MEANDERS OVER CAPE COD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U30S TO L40S OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 206 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE UNSETTLED EARLY ON...BUT A TREND TO FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF TEMPS IN
THE LONG TERM...WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANGES IN POPS AND WX BASED ON A
BLEND TO THE GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE OCCLUDED LOW SLOWLY LIFTS N/NE FROM NEAR CAPE
COD. THIS STACKED SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MEANDER TOWARDS THE GULF OF
MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA BY NIGHTFALL. SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL
WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM FOR SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. THE
HIGHER POPS ARE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND THE NRN
PORTIONS OF VT.  SEVERAL SPOKES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SPIRAL
AROUND THE SYSTEM...AND THERE COULD BE SOME W/NW UPSLOPE OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT OFF THE GREEN MTNS AND NRN DACKS. AN ADDITIONAL
QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE CYCLONE SLOWLY PULLING
AWAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO U40S OVER THE MTNS...AND LOWER
TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO M40S.

SAT-SUN NIGHT...UNFORTUNATELY ONE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE
AWAY...AND ANOTHER ONE DESCENDS S/SE FROM ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY.
THERE MAY INITIALLY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWERS...BUT THIS
NEXT UPPER LOW MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHWARD. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS. SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS WERE
PLACED IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER POPS WERE
PLACED FROM RUTLAND AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN NORTH AND EAST. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGH PEAKS...AS THE H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0 TO
+2C AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
TAPER OFF SUNDAY MORNING...WITH MAINLY ISOLD SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER NRN NY...AND WEST OF THE GREEN
MTNS. SOME OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS IN THE W/NW FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALONG THE WRN SPINE OF THE SRN GREENS. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS /POSSIBLY A FEW
U50S ON SAT/...AND 40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS. LOWS SATURDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO L40S.

MON-TUE...IMPROVING WX TREND FOR NRN NY AND UPSTATE VT WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TO OPEN THE WEEK. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED...AND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...A RETURN S/SW
FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION. ACCORDING THE GFS H850
TEMPS SOAR BACK TO +12C TO +15C ON TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE M50S TO L60S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND LOWER TO M50S OVER THE MTNS. A MILD AND BREEZY NIGHT
IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO U40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS EXCEPT L40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS. TEMPS COULD BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER TO
M60S...AND EVEN A FEW U60S IN THE VALLEYS. THE HIGH PEAKS WILL
EVEN BE IN MID TO U50S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WITH SCT RAIN SHOWERS AROUND THE REGION. MOST OF THESE
SHOWERS ARE LIGHT...AND ARE RATHER SHORT IN DURATION. WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED TO THE SOUTH...THE THREAT FOR RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SINCE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE RATHER SPORADIC AND LIGHT...WILL HANDLE THIS
RAINFALL WILL JUST A VCSH FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

HOWEVER...THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALLOWING FOR LOW
STRATUS TO OCCUR...ESP ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN TERMINALS OF
KMPV/KSLK. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AT
THESE SITES DUE TO LOW STRATUS...AND SOME MIST AS WELL. SOME IFR
STRATUS IS ALSO CURRENTLY OCCURRING AT KPBG...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS CONTINUING THROUGH THE ENTIRE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS LOW. WILL
ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT LATER TONIGHT BACK TO LOW END MVFR
AT KPBG. ELSEWHERE...FLYING CONDITIONS ARE VFR/MVFR FOR
BTV/MSS/RUT...AND GENERALLY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DURING THE MORNING HOURS...THERE LOOKS TO BE A LULL IN ANY
RAINFALL...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR ALL SITES TO SEE MAINLY MVFR/VFR
FLYING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A VORTICITY MAX SWINGING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION THE
AFTN...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A BAND OF STEADY LIGHT RAINFALL TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FLYING CONDITIONS TO DROP TO LOW
END MVFR/IFR FOR NEARLY ALL SITES. KMSS MAY REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO
THE WEST TO AVOID THE RAINFALL...AND KEEP FLYING CONDITIONS
SOMEWHAT BETTER THERE.

WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHERLY AT AROUND 5-10 KTS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY FROM A CONTINUED
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AT 10-15 KTS. WINDS MAY BE LOCALLY HIGHER
AROUND KBTV/KPBG...AS WINDS ARE FUNNELED DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.


OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THURS - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STARTING OUT LOW BEFORE THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LARGER RIVERS ACROSS THE
AREA ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 10 FEET BELOW NORMAL. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL COME OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND WE
ARE LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK. RIVER LEVELS
WILL RISE AS A RESULT...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED NONETHELESS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WFO BTV
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...WFO BTV
LONG TERM...WFO BTV
AVIATION...WFO BTV
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 220521
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
121 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL IMPACT NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
VERMONT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR
THE NEW JERSEY SHORE TONIGHT...AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS
CAPE COD BY THURSDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO
TRANSITION TO A STEADY RAINFALL BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS NOVA
SCOTIA BY FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 121 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
VERMONT WHERE DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE AND
SPREAD MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 406 PM EDT TUESDAY...

TOMORROW...THE CUTOFF LOW REACHES THE DELMARVA REGION...AND COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS N/NE FROM SE NJ.  A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL HELP ADVECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO VT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
BY THE AFTERNOON.  SCT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO BE MORE NUMEROUS.  IT
WILL BE BREEZY AND COOL...AND THE POPS WERE INCREASE TO LIKELY
VALUES BY THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS WILL ONLY BE  IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND U40S TO L50S IN THE VALLEYS.

WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A SLUG OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE PIVOTS INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE OCCLUDED
CYCLONE WILL BE A SLOW MOVER AND ANOMALOUS PWAT AIR /1 TO 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ WILL MOVE OVER VT AND NRN NY.
THE EASTERLY H850 LLJ CRANKS UP TO 40-60 KTS. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF
THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND
DACKS. PERIODS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR
NOW...HAVE PHRASED AS MDT RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS. THE POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS FOR SOME DOWNSLOPING IN THE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS. TOTAL RAINFALL DURING THIS 24-HR STRETCH COULD BE IN THE
HALF AN INCH TO INCH AND A HALF RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN U30S TO M40S IN THE DANK AIR MASS. HIGHS
WILL BE COOL ON THURSDAY IN THE L40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS TO THE
L50S IN THE VALLEYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE SYSTEM BECOMES EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC IN
STRUCTURE WITH DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION ENHANCING THE PCPN
OVER THE REGION. THE ECMWF/GFS INDICATE INTERMITTENT SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS THE OCCLUDED CYCLONE
MEANDERS OVER CAPE COD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U30S TO L40S OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 206 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE UNSETTLED EARLY ON...BUT A TREND TO FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF TEMPS IN
THE LONG TERM...WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANGES IN POPS AND WX BASED ON A
BLEND TO THE GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE OCCLUDED LOW SLOWLY LIFTS N/NE FROM NEAR CAPE
COD. THIS STACKED SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MEANDER TOWARDS THE GULF OF
MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA BY NIGHTFALL. SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL
WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM FOR SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. THE
HIGHER POPS ARE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND THE NRN
PORTIONS OF VT.  SEVERAL SPOKES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SPIRAL
AROUND THE SYSTEM...AND THERE COULD BE SOME W/NW UPSLOPE OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT OFF THE GREEN MTNS AND NRN DACKS. AN ADDITIONAL
QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE CYCLONE SLOWLY PULLING
AWAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO U40S OVER THE MTNS...AND LOWER
TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO M40S.

SAT-SUN NIGHT...UNFORTUNATELY ONE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE
AWAY...AND ANOTHER ONE DESCENDS S/SE FROM ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY.
THERE MAY INITIALLY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWERS...BUT THIS
NEXT UPPER LOW MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHWARD. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS. SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS WERE
PLACED IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER POPS WERE
PLACED FROM RUTLAND AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN NORTH AND EAST. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGH PEAKS...AS THE H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0 TO
+2C AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
TAPER OFF SUNDAY MORNING...WITH MAINLY ISOLD SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER NRN NY...AND WEST OF THE GREEN
MTNS. SOME OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS IN THE W/NW FLOW WILL
PERSIST ALONG THE WRN SPINE OF THE SRN GREENS. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS /POSSIBLY A FEW
U50S ON SAT/...AND 40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS. LOWS SATURDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO L40S.

MON-TUE...IMPROVING WX TREND FOR NRN NY AND UPSTATE VT WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TO OPEN THE WEEK. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED...AND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...A RETURN S/SW
FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION. ACCORDING THE GFS H850
TEMPS SOAR BACK TO +12C TO +15C ON TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE M50S TO L60S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND LOWER TO M50S OVER THE MTNS. A MILD AND BREEZY NIGHT
IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO U40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS EXCEPT L40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS. TEMPS COULD BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER TO
M60S...AND EVEN A FEW U60S IN THE VALLEYS. THE HIGH PEAKS WILL
EVEN BE IN MID TO U50S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WITH SCT RAIN SHOWERS AROUND THE REGION. MOST OF THESE
SHOWERS ARE LIGHT...AND ARE RATHER SHORT IN DURATION. WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED TO THE SOUTH...THE THREAT FOR RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SINCE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE RATHER SPORADIC AND LIGHT...WILL HANDLE THIS
RAINFALL WILL JUST A VCSH FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

HOWEVER...THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALLOWING FOR LOW
STRATUS TO OCCUR...ESP ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN TERMINALS OF
KMPV/KSLK. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AT
THESE SITES DUE TO LOW STRATUS...AND SOME MIST AS WELL. SOME IFR
STRATUS IS ALSO CURRENTLY OCCURRING AT KPBG...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS CONTINUING THROUGH THE ENTIRE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS LOW. WILL
ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT LATER TONIGHT BACK TO LOW END MVFR
AT KPBG. ELSEWHERE...FLYING CONDITIONS ARE VFR/MVFR FOR
BTV/MSS/RUT...AND GENERALLY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DURING THE MORNING HOURS...THERE LOOKS TO BE A LULL IN ANY
RAINFALL...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR ALL SITES TO SEE MAINLY MVFR/VFR
FLYING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A VORTICITY MAX SWINGING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION THE
AFTN...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A BAND OF STEADY LIGHT RAINFALL TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FLYING CONDITIONS TO DROP TO LOW
END MVFR/IFR FOR NEARLY ALL SITES. KMSS MAY REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO
THE WEST TO AVOID THE RAINFALL...AND KEEP FLYING CONDITIONS
SOMEWHAT BETTER THERE.

WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHERLY AT AROUND 5-10 KTS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY FROM A CONTINUED
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AT 10-15 KTS. WINDS MAY BE LOCALLY HIGHER
AROUND KBTV/KPBG...AS WINDS ARE FUNNELED DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.


OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THURS - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STARTING OUT LOW BEFORE THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LARGER RIVERS ACROSS THE
AREA ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 10 FEET BELOW NORMAL. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL COME OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND WE
ARE LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK. RIVER LEVELS
WILL RISE AS A RESULT...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED NONETHELESS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WFO BTV
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...WFO BTV
LONG TERM...WFO BTV
AVIATION...WFO BTV
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 220144
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
944 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL IMPACT NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
VERMONT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR
THE NEW JERSEY SHORE TONIGHT...AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS
CAPE COD BY THURSDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO
TRANSITION TO A STEADY RAINFALL BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS NOVA
SCOTIA BY FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 944 PM EDT...CONTINUED COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S UNDER OVERCAST SKIES.
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND MOST
PREVELENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VT. SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AT 5-10 MPH...LOCALLY UP TO
15 MPH IN THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 406 PM EDT TUESDAY...

TOMORROW...THE CUTOFF LOW REACHES THE DELMARVA REGION...AND COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS N/NE FROM SE NJ.  A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL HELP ADVECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO VT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
BY THE AFTERNOON.  SCT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO BE MORE NUMEROUS.  IT
WILL BE BREEZY AND COOL...AND THE POPS WERE INCREASE TO LIKELY
VALUES BY THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS WILL ONLY BE  IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND U40S TO L50S IN THE VALLEYS.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...A SLUG OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE PIVOTS INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THE OCCLUDED
CYCLONE WILL BE A SLOW MOVER AND ANOMALOUS PWAT AIR /1 TO 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ WILL MOVE OVER VT AND NRN NY.
THE EASTERLY H850 LLJ CRANKS UP TO 40-60 KTS. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF
THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND
DACKS. PERIODS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR
NOW...HAVE PHRASED AS MDT RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS. THE POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS FOR SOME DOWNSLOPING IN THE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS. TOTAL RAINFALL DURING THIS 24-HR STRETCH COULD BE IN THE
HALF AN INCH TO INCH AND A HALF RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN U30S TO M40S IN THE DANK AIR MASS. HIGHS
WILL BE COOL ON THU IN THE L40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS TO THE L50S IN
THE VALLEYS.

THU NIGHT...THE SYSTEM BECOMES EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC IN STRUCTURE
WITH DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION ENHANCING THE PCPN OVER THE
REGION.  THE ECMWF/GFS INDICATE INTERMITTENT SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS THE OCCLUDED CYCLONE MEANDERS
OVER CAPE COD.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE U30S TO L40S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 206 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE UNSETTLED EARLY ON...BUT A TREND TO FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF TEMPS IN
THE LONG TERM...WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANGES IN POPS AND WX BASED ON A
BLEND TO THE GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE OCCLUDED LOW SLOWLY LIFTS N/NE FROM NEAR CAPE
COD. THIS STACKED SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MEANDER TOWARDS THE GULF OF
MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA BY NIGHTFALL. SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL
WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM FOR SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. THE
HIGHER POPS ARE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND THE NRN
PORTIONS OF VT.  SEVERAL SPOKES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SPIRAL
AROUND THE SYSTEM...AND THERE COULD BE SOME W/NW UPSLOPE OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT OFF THE GREEN MTNS AND NRN DACKS. AN ADDITIONAL
QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE CYCLONE SLOWLY PULLING
AWAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO U40S OVER THE MTNS...AND LOWER
TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO M40S.

SAT-SUN NIGHT...UNFORTUNATELY ONE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE
AWAY...AND ANOTHER ONE DESCENDS S/SE FROM ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY.
THERE MAY INITIALLY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWERS...BUT THIS
NEXT UPPER LOW MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHWARD. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS. SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS WERE
PLACED IN THE FCST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER POPS WERE PLACED
FROM RUTLAND AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN NORTH AND EAST. THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGH PEAKS...AS THE H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0 TO +2C
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY. THE SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER
OFF SUNDAY MORNING...WITH MAINLY ISOLD SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER NRN NY...AND WEST OF THE GREEN MTNS.
SOME OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS IN THE W/NW FLOW WILL PERSIST
ALONG THE WRN SPINE OF THE SRN GREENS. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS /POSSIBLY A FEW U50S ON
SAT/...AND 40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS. LOWS SATURDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 30S TO L40S.

MON-TUE...IMPROVING WX TREND FOR NRN NY AND UPSTATE VT WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TO OPEN THE WEEK. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED...AND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...A RETURN S/SW
FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION. ACCORDING THE GFS H850
TEMPS SOAR BACK TO +12C TO +15C ON TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE M50S TO L60S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND LOWER TO M50S OVER THE MTNS. A MILD AND BREEZY NIGHT
IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO U40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS EXCEPT L40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS. TEMPS COULD BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER TO
M60S...AND EVEN A FEW U60S IN THE VALLEYS. THE HIGH PEAKS WILL
EVEN BE IN MID TO U50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WITH SCT RAIN SHOWERS AROUND THE REGION. MOST OF THESE
SHOWERS ARE LIGHT...AND ARE RATHER SHORT IN DURATION. WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED TO THE SOUTH...THE THREAT FOR RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SINCE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE RATHER SPORADIC AND LIGHT...WILL HANDLE THIS
RAINFALL WILL JUST A VCSH FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

HOWEVER...THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALLOWING FOR LOW
STRATUS TO OCCUR...ESP ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN TERMINALS OF
KMPV/KSLK. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AT
THESE SITES DUE TO LOW STRATUS...AND SOME MIST AS WELL. SOME IFR
STRATUS IS ALSO CURRENTLY OCCURRING AT KPBG...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS CONTINUING THROUGH THE ENTIRE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS LOW. WILL
ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT LATER TONIGHT BACK TO LOW END MVFR
AT KPBG. ELSEWHERE...FLYING CONDITIONS ARE VFR/MVFR FOR
BTV/MSS/RUT...AND GENERALLY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DURING THE MORNING HOURS...THERE LOOKS TO BE A LULL IN ANY
RAINFALL...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR ALL SITES TO SEE MAINLY MVFR/VFR
FLYING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A VORTICITY MAX SWINGING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION THE
AFTN...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A BAND OF STEADY LIGHT RAINFALL TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FLYING CONDITIONS TO DROP TO LOW
END MVFR/IFR FOR NEARLY ALL SITES. KMSS MAY REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO
THE WEST TO AVOID THE RAINFALL...AND KEEP FLYING CONDITIONS
SOMEWHAT BETTER THERE.

WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHERLY AT AROUND 5-10 KTS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY FROM A CONTINUED
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AT 10-15 KTS. WINDS MAY BE LOCALLY HIGHER
AROUND KBTV/KPBG...AS WINDS ARE FUNNELED DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.


OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THURS - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STARTING OUT LOW BEFORE THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LARGER RIVERS ACROSS THE
AREA ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 10 FEET BELOW NORMAL. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL COME OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND WE
ARE LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK. RIVER LEVELS
WILL RISE AS A RESULT...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED NONETHELESS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KBTV 220137 CCA
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
729 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL IMPACT NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
VERMONT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR
THE NEW JERSEY SHORE TONIGHT...AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS
CAPE COD BY THURSDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO
TRANSITION TO A STEADY RAINFALL BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS NOVA
SCOTIA BY FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 729 PM EDT...A CLOSED OFF LOW AT 500 HPA CONTINUES TO DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PA/NORTHERN WV. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SFC CONTINUES TO EVOLVE INTO A COASTAL LOW NEAR
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. AS MORE SHORT-WAVE
ENERGY SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM. THE VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL LOW...THE WEAK SFC TROUGH...AND A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SOME
SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY...AND SCATTERED
IN NATURE. KCCX RADAR SHOWS THE SHOWERS GENERALLY MOVING IN A
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST MOTION. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER
OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION...WHERE
UPSLOPE FLOW MAY AID IN LOCALLY ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR RAINFALL.

THE TREND WILL BE FOR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO CUT-OFF NEAR THE
DELMARVA REGION BY DAYBREAK. A CONVEYOR BELT OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH ERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z/WED. COOL AND DAMP
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 406 PM EDT TUESDAY...

TOMORROW...THE CUTOFF LOW REACHES THE DELMARVA REGION...AND COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS N/NE FROM SE NJ.  A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL HELP ADVECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO VT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
BY THE AFTERNOON.  SCT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO BE MORE NUMEROUS.  IT
WILL BE BREEZY AND COOL...AND THE POPS WERE INCREASE TO LIKELY
VALUES BY THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS WILL ONLY BE  IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND U40S TO L50S IN THE VALLEYS.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...A SLUG OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE PIVOTS INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THE OCCLUDED
CYCLONE WILL BE A SLOW MOVER AND ANOMALOUS PWAT AIR /1 TO 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ WILL MOVE OVER VT AND NRN NY.
THE EASTERLY H850 LLJ CRANKS UP TO 40-60 KTS. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF
THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND
DACKS. PERIODS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR
NOW...HAVE PHRASED AS MDT RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS. THE POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS FOR SOME DOWNSLOPING IN THE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS. TOTAL RAINFALL DURING THIS 24-HR STRETCH COULD BE IN THE
HALF AN INCH TO INCH AND A HALF RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN U30S TO M40S IN THE DANK AIR MASS. HIGHS
WILL BE COOL ON THU IN THE L40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS TO THE L50S IN
THE VALLEYS.

THU NIGHT...THE SYSTEM BECOMES EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC IN STRUCTURE
WITH DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION ENHANCING THE PCPN OVER THE
REGION.  THE ECMWF/GFS INDICATE INTERMITTENT SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS THE OCCLUDED CYCLONE MEANDERS
OVER CAPE COD.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE U30S TO L40S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 206 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE UNSETTLED EARLY ON...BUT A TREND TO FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF TEMPS IN
THE LONG TERM...WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANGES IN POPS AND WX BASED ON A
BLEND TO THE GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE OCCLUDED LOW SLOWLY LIFTS N/NE FROM NEAR CAPE
COD. THIS STACKED SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MEANDER TOWARDS THE GULF OF
MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA BY NIGHTFALL. SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL
WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM FOR SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. THE
HIGHER POPS ARE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND THE NRN
PORTIONS OF VT.  SEVERAL SPOKES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SPIRAL
AROUND THE SYSTEM...AND THERE COULD BE SOME W/NW UPSLOPE OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT OFF THE GREEN MTNS AND NRN DACKS. AN ADDITIONAL
QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE CYCLONE SLOWLY PULLING
AWAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO U40S OVER THE MTNS...AND LOWER
TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO M40S.

SAT-SUN NIGHT...UNFORTUNATELY ONE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE
AWAY...AND ANOTHER ONE DESCENDS S/SE FROM ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY.
THERE MAY INITIALLY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWERS...BUT THIS
NEXT UPPER LOW MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHWARD. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS. SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS WERE
PLACED IN THE FCST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER POPS WERE PLACED
FROM RUTLAND AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN NORTH AND EAST. THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGH PEAKS...AS THE H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0 TO +2C
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY. THE SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER
OFF SUNDAY MORNING...WITH MAINLY ISOLD SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER NRN NY...AND WEST OF THE GREEN MTNS.
SOME OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS IN THE W/NW FLOW WILL PERSIST
ALONG THE WRN SPINE OF THE SRN GREENS. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS /POSSIBLY A FEW U50S ON
SAT/...AND 40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS. LOWS SATURDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 30S TO L40S.

MON-TUE...IMPROVING WX TREND FOR NRN NY AND UPSTATE VT WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TO OPEN THE WEEK. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED...AND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...A RETURN S/SW
FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION. ACCORDING THE GFS H850
TEMPS SOAR BACK TO +12C TO +15C ON TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE M50S TO L60S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND LOWER TO M50S OVER THE MTNS. A MILD AND BREEZY NIGHT
IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO U40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS EXCEPT L40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS. TEMPS COULD BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER TO
M60S...AND EVEN A FEW U60S IN THE VALLEYS. THE HIGH PEAKS WILL
EVEN BE IN MID TO U50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WITH SCT RAIN SHOWERS AROUND THE REGION. MOST OF THESE
SHOWERS ARE LIGHT...AND ARE RATHER SHORT IN DURATION. WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED TO THE SOUTH...THE THREAT FOR RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SINCE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE RATHER SPORADIC AND LIGHT...WILL HANDLE THIS
RAINFALL WILL JUST A VCSH FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

HOWEVER...THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALLOWING FOR LOW
STRATUS TO OCCUR...ESP ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN TERMINALS OF
KMPV/KSLK. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AT
THESE SITES DUE TO LOW STRATUS...AND SOME MIST AS WELL. SOME IFR
STRATUS IS ALSO CURRENTLY OCCURRING AT KPBG...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS CONTINUING THROUGH THE ENTIRE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS LOW. WILL
ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT LATER TONIGHT BACK TO LOW END MVFR
AT KPBG. ELSEWHERE...FLYING CONDITIONS ARE VFR/MVFR FOR
BTV/MSS/RUT...AND GENERALLY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DURING THE MORNING HOURS...THERE LOOKS TO BE A LULL IN ANY
RAINFALL...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR ALL SITES TO SEE MAINLY MVFR/VFR
FLYING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A VORTICITY MAX SWINGING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION THE
AFTN...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A BAND OF STEADY LIGHT RAINFALL TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FLYING CONDITIONS TO DROP TO LOW
END MVFR/IFR FOR NEARLY ALL SITES. KMSS MAY REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO
THE WEST TO AVOID THE RAINFALL...AND KEEP FLYING CONDITIONS
SOMEWHAT BETTER THERE.

WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHERLY AT AROUND 5-10 KTS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY FROM A CONTINUED
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AT 10-15 KTS. WINDS MAY BE LOCALLY HIGHER
AROUND KBTV/KPBG...AS WINDS ARE FUNNELED DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.


OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THURS - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STARTING OUT LOW BEFORE THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LARGER RIVERS ACROSS THE
AREA ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 10 FEET BELOW NORMAL. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL COME OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND WE
ARE LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK. RIVER LEVELS
WILL RISE AS A RESULT...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED NONETHELESS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WASULA/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...WASULA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 220122
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
922 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 920 PM EDT...TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD ARE FOCUSING BANDS OF SHOWERS WHICH ARE MOVING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA AS INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST IS ALLOWING THE SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE CATSKILL REGION. THESE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO
SOME RAIN SHOULD REACH MUCH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES
AND SOUTHERN VT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS MAY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT...ESP FOR
AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AS THE BULK OF FORCING SHIFTS TO OUR
S AND W ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND
ALSO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IN THE REGION OF STRENGTHENING WARM
ADVECTION. HAVE KEPT CHC POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE GENERAL AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO
DECREASE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...MAY REMAIN A BIT GREATER ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

SPOTTY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY ALSO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE SHOWERS AS LOW
LEVELS MOISTEN...AND INTERACT WITH THE TERRAIN.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...AT THIS TIME...BARRING ANY SMALLER...UNRESOLVED
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTH...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT OVER OUR REGION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...AND
PIVOTS BACK WESTWARD...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND
THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND NW MA. FURTHER S AND W...AREAL
COVERAGE MAY ONCE AGAIN REMAIN SPOTTY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
EVEN A POSSIBILITY OF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN SOME
AREAS DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOISTURE DEEPENS
AGAIN FROM NE TO SW LATE IN THE DAY. ASSUMING RAINFALL REMAINS
FAIRLY LIMITED...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

WED NT-THU...THIS APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MODERATE TO PERHAPS LOCALLY HVY
POCKETS OF RAIN...ESP ACROSS HIGHER...E-FACING SLOPES ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...THE SE ADIRONDACKS...AND ALSO THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS. THE BULK OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF AN E/NE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KT TRANSLATING
WESTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA...ALONG WITH DEEP LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING AROUND THE W/NW PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW...SHOULD FAVOR SOME BANDS OF MOD-HVY RAINFALL PIVOTING
WEST...THEN SW ACROSS THE REGION LATE WED NT INTO AT LEAST THU AM.
AGAIN...AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE SHOULD FAVOR
THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMTS FROM SOUTHERN VT INTO SE
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR. A
SECONDARY MAX OF AROUND 2 INCHES APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS DUE TO UPSLOPE...WHILE A MIN SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE
IMMEDIATE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY 0.5-1.5 INCHES
OCCURRING. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
AS WELL...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 35 MPH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...BERKSHIRES
AND TACONICS...AND POSSIBLY WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO SOME FUNNELING EFFECTS...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH COULD ALSO OCCUR. WED NT MIN TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY FALL
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...AND MAXES MAY REMAIN BELOW 50 IN
MANY AREAS ON THU DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND A PERSISTENT NORTH WIND
FUNNELING COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR SOUTHWARD...WHILE WET BULB
EFFECTS OCCUR WITH THE FALLING RAINFALL. IF THE RAIN DECREASES IN
AREAL COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON...SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS WOULD
THEN BE POSSIBLE.

THU NT...SOME ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO ROTATE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION...ESP EARLY AND FOR AREAS NEAR
AND E OF THE HUDSON RIVER. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN
MOST AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT UNSETTLED AND ENDS WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS.

ON FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN THE
GULF OF MAINE WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW BACK ACRS THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP
CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACRS THE NRN
TWO THIRDS OF THE FA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY
TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.

FOR SATURDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW LINGER
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING INTO THE FA FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT THIS POINT LOOK MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILDER DAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE CAROLINAS AND A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z THURSDAY. MAINLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE RADAR THIS EVENING SO VCSH/-SHRA IN
FORECAST AT THE TAF SITES. EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS THE MAIN UPPER ENERGY TRACKS
CLOSER TO THE REGION AND THE COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA...RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...EVEN THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND
WET AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION.
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH
THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO
EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS...UP TO 2 INCHES...WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND
POSSIBLY THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS...GENERALLY 0.5 TO
1.5 INCHES...OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KBTV 212329
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
729 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL IMPACT NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
VERMONT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR
THE NEW JERSEY SHORE TONIGHT...AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS
CAPE COD BY THURSDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO
TRANSITION TO A STEADY RAINFALL BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS NOVA
SCOTIA BY FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 729 PM EDT...A CLOSED OFF LOW AT 500 HPA CONTINUES TO DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PA/NORTHERN WV. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SFC CONTINUES TO EVOLVE INTO A COASTAL LOW NEAR
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. AS MORE SHORT-WAVE
ENERGY SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM. THE VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL LOW...THE WEAK SFC TROUGH...AND A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SOME
SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY...AND SCATTERED
IN NATURE. KCCX RADAR SHOWS THE SHOWERS GENERALLY MOVING IN A
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST MOTION. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER
OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION...WHERE
UPSLOPE FLOW MAY AID IN LOCALLY ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR RAINFALL.

THE TREND WILL BE FOR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO CUT-OFF NEAR THE
DELMARVA REGION BY DAYBREAK. A CONVEYOR BELT OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH ERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z/WED. COOL AND DAMP
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 406 PM EDT TUESDAY...

TOMORROW...THE CUTOFF LOW REACHES THE DELMARVA REGION...AND COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS N/NE FROM SE NJ.  A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL HELP ADVECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO VT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
BY THE AFTERNOON.  SCT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO BE MORE NUMEROUS.  IT
WILL BE BREEZY AND COOL...AND THE POPS WERE INCREASE TO LIKELY
VALUES BY THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS WILL ONLY BE  IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND U40S TO L50S IN THE VALLEYS.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...A SLUG OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE PIVOTS INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THE OCCLUDED
CYCLONE WILL BE A SLOW MOVER AND ANOMALOUS PWAT AIR /1 TO 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ WILL MOVE OVER VT AND NRN NY.
THE EASTERLY H850 LLJ CRANKS UP TO 40-60 KTS. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF
THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND
DACKS. PERIODS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR
NOW...HAVE PHRASED AS MDT RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS. THE POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS FOR SOME DOWNSLOPING IN THE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS. TOTAL RAINFALL DURING THIS 24-HR STRETCH COULD BE IN THE
HALF AN INCH TO INCH AND A HALF RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN U30S TO M40S IN THE DANK AIR MASS. HIGHS
WILL BE COOL ON THU IN THE L40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS TO THE L50S IN
THE VALLEYS.

THU NIGHT...THE SYSTEM BECOMES EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC IN STRUCTURE
WITH DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION ENHANCING THE PCPN OVER THE
REGION.  THE ECMWF/GFS INDICATE INTERMITTENT SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS THE OCCLUDED CYCLONE MEANDERS
OVER CAPE COD.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE U30S TO L40S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 206 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE UNSETTLED EARLY ON...BUT A TREND TO FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF TEMPS IN
THE LONG TERM...WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANGES IN POPS AND WX BASED ON A
BLEND TO THE GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE OCCLUDED LOW SLOWLY LIFTS N/NE FROM NEAR CAPE
COD. THIS STACKED SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MEANDER TOWARDS THE GULF OF
MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA BY NIGHTFALL. SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL
WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM FOR SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. THE
HIGHER POPS ARE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND THE NRN
PORTIONS OF VT.  SEVERAL SPOKES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SPIRAL
AROUND THE SYSTEM...AND THERE COULD BE SOME W/NW UPSLOPE OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT OFF THE GREEN MTNS AND NRN DACKS. AN ADDITIONAL
QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE CYCLONE SLOWLY PULLING
AWAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO U40S OVER THE MTNS...AND LOWER
TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO M40S.

SAT-SUN NIGHT...UNFORTUNATELY ONE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE
AWAY...AND ANOTHER ONE DESCENDS S/SE FROM ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY.
THERE MAY INITIALLY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWERS...BUT THIS
NEXT UPPER LOW MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHWARD. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS. SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS WERE
PLACED IN THE FCST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER POPS WERE PLACED
FROM RUTLAND AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN NORTH AND EAST. THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGH PEAKS...AS THE H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0 TO +2C
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY. THE SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER
OFF SUNDAY MORNING...WITH MAINLY ISOLD SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER NRN NY...AND WEST OF THE GREEN MTNS.
SOME OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS IN THE W/NW FLOW WILL PERSIST
ALONG THE WRN SPINE OF THE SRN GREENS. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS /POSSIBLY A FEW U50S ON
SAT/...AND 40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS. LOWS SATURDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 30S TO L40S.

MON-TUE...IMPROVING WX TREND FOR NRN NY AND UPSTATE VT WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TO OPEN THE WEEK. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED...AND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...A RETURN S/SW
FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION. ACCORDING THE GFS H850
TEMPS SOAR BACK TO +12C TO +15C ON TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE M50S TO L60S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND LOWER TO M50S OVER THE MTNS. A MILD AND BREEZY NIGHT
IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO U40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS EXCEPT L40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS. TEMPS COULD BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER TO
M60S...AND EVEN A FEW U60S IN THE VALLEYS. THE HIGH PEAKS WILL
EVEN BE IN MID TO U50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WITH SCT RAIN SHOWERS AROUND THE REGION. MOST OF THESE
SHOWERS ARE LIGHT...AND ARE RATHER SHORT IN DURATION. WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED TO THE SOUTH...THE THREAT FOR RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SINCE RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE RATHER SPORADIC AND LIGHT...WILL HANDLE THIS
RAINFALL WILL JUST A VCSH FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

HOWEVER...THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALLOWING FOR LOW
STRATUS TO OCCUR...ESP ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN TERMINALS OF
KMPV/KSLK. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AT
THESE SITES DUE TO LOW STRATUS...AND SOME MIST AS WELL. SOME IFR
STRATUS IS ALSO CURRENTLY OCCURRING AT KPBG...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS CONTINUING THROUGH THE ENTIRE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS LOW. WILL
ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT LATER TONIGHT BACK TO LOW END MVFR
AT KPBG. ELSEWHERE...FLYING CONDITIONS ARE VFR/MVFR FOR
BTV/MSS/RUT...AND GENERALLY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DURING THE MORNING HOURS...THERE LOOKS TO BE A LULL IN ANY
RAINFALL...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR ALL SITES TO SEE MAINLY MVFR/VFR
FLYING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A VORTICITY MAX SWINGING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION THE
AFTN...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A BAND OF STEADY LIGHT RAINFALL TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FLYING CONDITIONS TO DROP TO LOW
END MVFR/IFR FOR NEARLY ALL SITES. KMSS MAY REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO
THE WEST TO AVOID THE RAINFALL...AND KEEP FLYING CONDITIONS
SOMEWHAT BETTER THERE.

WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHERLY AT AROUND 5-10 KTS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY FROM A CONTINUED
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AT 10-15 KTS. WINDS MAY BE LOCALLY HIGHER
AROUND KBTV/KPBG...AS WINDS ARE FUNNELED DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.


OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THURS - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STARTING OUT LOW BEFORE THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LARGER RIVERS ACROSS THE
AREA ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 10 FEET BELOW NORMAL. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL COME OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND WE
ARE LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK. RIVER LEVELS
WILL RISE AS A RESULT...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED NONETHELESS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WASULA/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...WASULA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 212324
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
724 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 6 PM EDT...ONE COMPACT SHORTWAVE HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST IS
ALLOWING SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE
CATSKILL REGION. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...SO SOME RAIN SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT
THROUGH THE EVENING COMMUTE.

WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
ACROSS NORTHERN NJ AND EXTREME SE NYS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
THE REMNANTS OF THIS COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/LITCHFIELD CO...AND THE SE CATSKILLS LATER THIS EVENING AS
WELL.

SHOWERS MAY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESP FOR AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AS THE
BULK OF FORCING SHIFTS TO OUR S AND W ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND ALSO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST IN THE REGION OF STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION. HAVE KEPT CHC
POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE GENERAL AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO DECREASE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...MAY REMAIN A
BIT GREATER ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS.

SPOTTY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY ALSO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE SHOWERS AS LOW
LEVELS MOISTEN...AND INTERACT WITH THE TERRAIN.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...AT THIS TIME...BARRING ANY SMALLER...UNRESOLVED
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTH...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT OVER OUR REGION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...AND
PIVOTS BACK WESTWARD...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND
THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND NW MA. FURTHER S AND W...AREAL
COVERAGE MAY ONCE AGAIN REMAIN SPOTTY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
EVEN A POSSIBILITY OF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN SOME
AREAS DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOISTURE DEEPENS
AGAIN FROM NE TO SW LATE IN THE DAY. ASSUMING RAINFALL REMAINS
FAIRLY LIMITED...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

WED NT-THU...THIS APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MODERATE TO PERHAPS LOCALLY HVY
POCKETS OF RAIN...ESP ACROSS HIGHER...E-FACING SLOPES ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...THE SE ADIRONDACKS...AND ALSO THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS. THE BULK OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF AN E/NE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KT TRANSLATING
WESTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA...ALONG WITH DEEP LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING AROUND THE W/NW PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW...SHOULD FAVOR SOME BANDS OF MOD-HVY RAINFALL PIVOTING
WEST...THEN SW ACROSS THE REGION LATE WED NT INTO AT LEAST THU AM.
AGAIN...AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE SHOULD FAVOR
THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMTS FROM SOUTHERN VT INTO SE
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR. A
SECONDARY MAX OF AROUND 2 INCHES APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS DUE TO UPSLOPE...WHILE A MIN SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE
IMMEDIATE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY 0.5-1.5 INCHES
OCCURRING. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
AS WELL...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 35 MPH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...BERKSHIRES
AND TACONICS...AND POSSIBLY WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO SOME FUNNELING EFFECTS...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH COULD ALSO OCCUR. WED NT MIN TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY FALL
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...AND MAXES MAY REMAIN BELOW 50 IN
MANY AREAS ON THU DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND A PERSISTENT NORTH WIND
FUNNELING COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR SOUTHWARD...WHILE WET BULB
EFFECTS OCCUR WITH THE FALLING RAINFALL. IF THE RAIN DECREASES IN
AREAL COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON...SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS WOULD
THEN BE POSSIBLE.

THU NT...SOME ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO ROTATE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION...ESP EARLY AND FOR AREAS NEAR
AND E OF THE HUDSON RIVER. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN
MOST AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT UNSETTLED AND ENDS WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS.

ON FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN THE
GULF OF MAINE WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW BACK ACRS THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP
CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACRS THE NRN
TWO THIRDS OF THE FA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY
TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.

FOR SATURDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW LINGER
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING INTO THE FA FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT THIS POINT LOOK MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILDER DAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE CAROLINAS AND A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z THURSDAY. MAINLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE RADAR THIS EVENING SO VCSH/-SHRA IN
FORECAST AT THE TAF SITES. EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS THE MAIN UPPER ENERGY TRACKS
CLOSER TO THE REGION AND THE COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA...RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...EVEN THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND
WET AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION.
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH
THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO
EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS...UP TO 2 INCHES...WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND
POSSIBLY THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS...GENERALLY 0.5 TO
1.5 INCHES...OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 212324
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
724 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 6 PM EDT...ONE COMPACT SHORTWAVE HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST IS
ALLOWING SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE
CATSKILL REGION. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...SO SOME RAIN SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT
THROUGH THE EVENING COMMUTE.

WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
ACROSS NORTHERN NJ AND EXTREME SE NYS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
THE REMNANTS OF THIS COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/LITCHFIELD CO...AND THE SE CATSKILLS LATER THIS EVENING AS
WELL.

SHOWERS MAY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESP FOR AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AS THE
BULK OF FORCING SHIFTS TO OUR S AND W ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND ALSO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST IN THE REGION OF STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION. HAVE KEPT CHC
POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE GENERAL AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO DECREASE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...MAY REMAIN A
BIT GREATER ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS.

SPOTTY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY ALSO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE SHOWERS AS LOW
LEVELS MOISTEN...AND INTERACT WITH THE TERRAIN.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...AT THIS TIME...BARRING ANY SMALLER...UNRESOLVED
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTH...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT OVER OUR REGION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...AND
PIVOTS BACK WESTWARD...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND
THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND NW MA. FURTHER S AND W...AREAL
COVERAGE MAY ONCE AGAIN REMAIN SPOTTY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
EVEN A POSSIBILITY OF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN SOME
AREAS DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOISTURE DEEPENS
AGAIN FROM NE TO SW LATE IN THE DAY. ASSUMING RAINFALL REMAINS
FAIRLY LIMITED...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

WED NT-THU...THIS APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MODERATE TO PERHAPS LOCALLY HVY
POCKETS OF RAIN...ESP ACROSS HIGHER...E-FACING SLOPES ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...THE SE ADIRONDACKS...AND ALSO THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS. THE BULK OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF AN E/NE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KT TRANSLATING
WESTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA...ALONG WITH DEEP LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING AROUND THE W/NW PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW...SHOULD FAVOR SOME BANDS OF MOD-HVY RAINFALL PIVOTING
WEST...THEN SW ACROSS THE REGION LATE WED NT INTO AT LEAST THU AM.
AGAIN...AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE SHOULD FAVOR
THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMTS FROM SOUTHERN VT INTO SE
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR. A
SECONDARY MAX OF AROUND 2 INCHES APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS DUE TO UPSLOPE...WHILE A MIN SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE
IMMEDIATE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY 0.5-1.5 INCHES
OCCURRING. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
AS WELL...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 35 MPH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...BERKSHIRES
AND TACONICS...AND POSSIBLY WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO SOME FUNNELING EFFECTS...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH COULD ALSO OCCUR. WED NT MIN TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY FALL
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...AND MAXES MAY REMAIN BELOW 50 IN
MANY AREAS ON THU DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND A PERSISTENT NORTH WIND
FUNNELING COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR SOUTHWARD...WHILE WET BULB
EFFECTS OCCUR WITH THE FALLING RAINFALL. IF THE RAIN DECREASES IN
AREAL COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON...SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS WOULD
THEN BE POSSIBLE.

THU NT...SOME ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO ROTATE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION...ESP EARLY AND FOR AREAS NEAR
AND E OF THE HUDSON RIVER. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN
MOST AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT UNSETTLED AND ENDS WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS.

ON FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN THE
GULF OF MAINE WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW BACK ACRS THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP
CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACRS THE NRN
TWO THIRDS OF THE FA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY
TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.

FOR SATURDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW LINGER
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING INTO THE FA FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT THIS POINT LOOK MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILDER DAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE CAROLINAS AND A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z THURSDAY. MAINLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE RADAR THIS EVENING SO VCSH/-SHRA IN
FORECAST AT THE TAF SITES. EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS THE MAIN UPPER ENERGY TRACKS
CLOSER TO THE REGION AND THE COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA...RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...EVEN THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND
WET AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION.
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH
THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO
EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS...UP TO 2 INCHES...WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND
POSSIBLY THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS...GENERALLY 0.5 TO
1.5 INCHES...OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 212216
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 6 PM EDT...ONE COMPACT SHORTWAVE HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST IS
ALLOWING SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE
CATSKILL REGION. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...SO SOME RAIN SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT
THROUGH THE EVENING COMMUTE.

WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
ACROSS NORTHERN NJ AND EXTREME SE NYS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
THE REMNANTS OF THIS COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/LITCHFIELD CO...AND THE SE CATSKILLS LATER THIS EVENING AS
WELL.

SHOWERS MAY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESP FOR AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AS THE
BULK OF FORCING SHIFTS TO OUR S AND W ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND ALSO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST IN THE REGION OF STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION. HAVE KEPT CHC
POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE GENERAL AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO DECREASE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...MAY REMAIN A
BIT GREATER ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS.

SPOTTY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY ALSO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE SHOWERS AS LOW
LEVELS MOISTEN...AND INTERACT WITH THE TERRAIN.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...AT THIS TIME...BARRING ANY SMALLER...UNRESOLVED
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTH...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT OVER OUR REGION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...AND
PIVOTS BACK WESTWARD...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND
THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND NW MA. FURTHER S AND W...AREAL
COVERAGE MAY ONCE AGAIN REMAIN SPOTTY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
EVEN A POSSIBILITY OF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN SOME
AREAS DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOISTURE DEEPENS
AGAIN FROM NE TO SW LATE IN THE DAY. ASSUMING RAINFALL REMAINS
FAIRLY LIMITED...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

WED NT-THU...THIS APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MODERATE TO PERHAPS LOCALLY HVY
POCKETS OF RAIN...ESP ACROSS HIGHER...E-FACING SLOPES ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...THE SE ADIRONDACKS...AND ALSO THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS. THE BULK OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF AN E/NE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KT TRANSLATING
WESTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA...ALONG WITH DEEP LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING AROUND THE W/NW PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW...SHOULD FAVOR SOME BANDS OF MOD-HVY RAINFALL PIVOTING
WEST...THEN SW ACROSS THE REGION LATE WED NT INTO AT LEAST THU AM.
AGAIN...AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE SHOULD FAVOR
THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMTS FROM SOUTHERN VT INTO SE
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR. A
SECONDARY MAX OF AROUND 2 INCHES APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS DUE TO UPSLOPE...WHILE A MIN SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE
IMMEDIATE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY 0.5-1.5 INCHES
OCCURRING. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
AS WELL...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 35 MPH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...BERKSHIRES
AND TACONICS...AND POSSIBLY WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO SOME FUNNELING EFFECTS...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH COULD ALSO OCCUR. WED NT MIN TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY FALL
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...AND MAXES MAY REMAIN BELOW 50 IN
MANY AREAS ON THU DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND A PERSISTENT NORTH WIND
FUNNELING COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR SOUTHWARD...WHILE WET BULB
EFFECTS OCCUR WITH THE FALLING RAINFALL. IF THE RAIN DECREASES IN
AREAL COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON...SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS WOULD
THEN BE POSSIBLE.

THU NT...SOME ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO ROTATE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION...ESP EARLY AND FOR AREAS NEAR
AND E OF THE HUDSON RIVER. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN
MOST AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT UNSETTLED AND ENDS WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS.

ON FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN THE
GULF OF MAINE WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW BACK ACRS THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP
CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACRS THE NRN
TWO THIRDS OF THE FA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY
TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.

FOR SATURDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW LINGER
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING INTO THE FA FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT THIS POINT LOOK MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILDER DAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE CAROLINAS AND A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN ON RADAR ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL UPPER IMPULSE ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO EXIT THE
KALB...KPOU AND KGFL AREAS. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE WEST
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SMALL UPPER IMPULSE WITHIN THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW ARE BUILDING EAST.  SO SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
COULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING. VARYING COVERAGE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO GENERALLY VCSH TONIGHT. THEN...INCREASING
COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS THE MAIN
UPPER ENERGY TRACKS CLOSER TO THE REGION AND THE COASTAL LOW BEGINS
TO DEVELOP.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD HOVER JUST IN THE
VFR RANGE...JUST ABOVE 3000 FEET...BUT SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW
CLOUDS...BELOW 1000 FEET ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. TONIGHT...MAINLY MVFR...BUT SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
BELOW 1000 FEET ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...AND THEN THROUGH THE
MORNING AS RAIN INCREASES IN COVERAGE.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO EAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA...RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...EVEN THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND
WET AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION.
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH
THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO
EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS...UP TO 2 INCHES...WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND
POSSIBLY THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS...GENERALLY 0.5 TO
1.5 INCHES...OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 212216
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 6 PM EDT...ONE COMPACT SHORTWAVE HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST IS
ALLOWING SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE
CATSKILL REGION. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...SO SOME RAIN SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT
THROUGH THE EVENING COMMUTE.

WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
ACROSS NORTHERN NJ AND EXTREME SE NYS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
THE REMNANTS OF THIS COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/LITCHFIELD CO...AND THE SE CATSKILLS LATER THIS EVENING AS
WELL.

SHOWERS MAY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESP FOR AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AS THE
BULK OF FORCING SHIFTS TO OUR S AND W ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND ALSO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST IN THE REGION OF STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION. HAVE KEPT CHC
POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE GENERAL AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO DECREASE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...MAY REMAIN A
BIT GREATER ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS.

SPOTTY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY ALSO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE SHOWERS AS LOW
LEVELS MOISTEN...AND INTERACT WITH THE TERRAIN.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...AT THIS TIME...BARRING ANY SMALLER...UNRESOLVED
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTH...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT OVER OUR REGION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...AND
PIVOTS BACK WESTWARD...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND
THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND NW MA. FURTHER S AND W...AREAL
COVERAGE MAY ONCE AGAIN REMAIN SPOTTY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
EVEN A POSSIBILITY OF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN SOME
AREAS DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOISTURE DEEPENS
AGAIN FROM NE TO SW LATE IN THE DAY. ASSUMING RAINFALL REMAINS
FAIRLY LIMITED...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

WED NT-THU...THIS APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MODERATE TO PERHAPS LOCALLY HVY
POCKETS OF RAIN...ESP ACROSS HIGHER...E-FACING SLOPES ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...THE SE ADIRONDACKS...AND ALSO THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS. THE BULK OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF AN E/NE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KT TRANSLATING
WESTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA...ALONG WITH DEEP LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING AROUND THE W/NW PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW...SHOULD FAVOR SOME BANDS OF MOD-HVY RAINFALL PIVOTING
WEST...THEN SW ACROSS THE REGION LATE WED NT INTO AT LEAST THU AM.
AGAIN...AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE SHOULD FAVOR
THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMTS FROM SOUTHERN VT INTO SE
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR. A
SECONDARY MAX OF AROUND 2 INCHES APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS DUE TO UPSLOPE...WHILE A MIN SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE
IMMEDIATE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY 0.5-1.5 INCHES
OCCURRING. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
AS WELL...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 35 MPH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...BERKSHIRES
AND TACONICS...AND POSSIBLY WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO SOME FUNNELING EFFECTS...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH COULD ALSO OCCUR. WED NT MIN TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY FALL
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...AND MAXES MAY REMAIN BELOW 50 IN
MANY AREAS ON THU DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND A PERSISTENT NORTH WIND
FUNNELING COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR SOUTHWARD...WHILE WET BULB
EFFECTS OCCUR WITH THE FALLING RAINFALL. IF THE RAIN DECREASES IN
AREAL COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON...SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS WOULD
THEN BE POSSIBLE.

THU NT...SOME ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO ROTATE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION...ESP EARLY AND FOR AREAS NEAR
AND E OF THE HUDSON RIVER. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN
MOST AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT UNSETTLED AND ENDS WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS.

ON FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN THE
GULF OF MAINE WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW BACK ACRS THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP
CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACRS THE NRN
TWO THIRDS OF THE FA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY
TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.

FOR SATURDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW LINGER
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING INTO THE FA FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT THIS POINT LOOK MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILDER DAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE CAROLINAS AND A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN ON RADAR ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL UPPER IMPULSE ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO EXIT THE
KALB...KPOU AND KGFL AREAS. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE WEST
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SMALL UPPER IMPULSE WITHIN THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW ARE BUILDING EAST.  SO SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
COULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING. VARYING COVERAGE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO GENERALLY VCSH TONIGHT. THEN...INCREASING
COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS THE MAIN
UPPER ENERGY TRACKS CLOSER TO THE REGION AND THE COASTAL LOW BEGINS
TO DEVELOP.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD HOVER JUST IN THE
VFR RANGE...JUST ABOVE 3000 FEET...BUT SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW
CLOUDS...BELOW 1000 FEET ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. TONIGHT...MAINLY MVFR...BUT SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
BELOW 1000 FEET ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...AND THEN THROUGH THE
MORNING AS RAIN INCREASES IN COVERAGE.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO EAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA...RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...EVEN THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND
WET AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION.
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH
THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO
EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS...UP TO 2 INCHES...WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND
POSSIBLY THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS...GENERALLY 0.5 TO
1.5 INCHES...OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KBTV 212006
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
406 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL IMPACT NORTHERN NEW YORK AND UPSTATE
VERMONT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR THE NEW
JERSEY SEABOARD TONIGHT...AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS CAPE COD
BY THURSDAY.  EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO TRANSITION TO
A STEADY RAINFALL BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS NOVA
SCOTIA BY FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 406 PM EDT...AN H500 UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DIG S/SE
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC
REGION TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE INTO A COASTAL LOW NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS MORE SHORT-WAVE ENERGY SHIFTS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM. THE VORTICITY
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW...THE WEAK SFC
TROUGH...AND A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY WILL KEEP SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AROUND EARLY THIS EVENING
THAT WILL TAPER TO SCT SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE TREND WILL BE FOR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO CLOSE AND CUT-OFF NEAR
THE DELMARVA REGION BY DAYBREAK.  A CONVEYOR BELT OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH ERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z/WED.  COOL AND
DAMP CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S WITH
CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 406 PM EDT TUESDAY...

TOMORROW...THE CUTOFF LOW REACHES THE DELMARVA REGION...AND COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS N/NE FROM SE NJ.  A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL HELP ADVECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO VT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
BY THE AFTERNOON.  SCT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO BE MORE NUMEROUS.  IT
WILL BE BREEZY AND COOL...AND THE POPS WERE INCREASE TO LIKELY
VALUES BY THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS WILL ONLY BE  IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S ACROSS THE MTNS...AND U40S TO L50S IN THE VALLEYS.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...A SLUG OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE PIVOTS INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THE OCCLUDED
CYCLONE WILL BE A SLOW MOVER AND ANOMALOUS PWAT AIR /1 TO 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ WILL MOVE OVER VT AND NRN NY.
THE EASTERLY H850 LLJ CRANKS UP TO 40-60 KTS. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF
THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND
DACKS. PERIODS OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR
NOW...HAVE PHRASED AS MDT RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS. THE POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS FOR SOME DOWNSLOPING IN THE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS. TOTAL RAINFALL DURING THIS 24-HR STRETCH COULD BE IN THE
HALF AN INCH TO INCH AND A HALF RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN U30S TO M40S IN THE DANK AIR MASS. HIGHS
WILL BE COOL ON THU IN THE L40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS TO THE L50S IN
THE VALLEYS.

THU NIGHT...THE SYSTEM BECOMES EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC IN STRUCTURE
WITH DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION ENHANCING THE PCPN OVER THE
REGION.  THE ECMWF/GFS INDICATE INTERMITTENT SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS THE OCCLUDED CYCLONE MEANDERS
OVER CAPE COD.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE U30S TO L40S OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 206 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE UNSETTLED EARLY ON...BUT A TREND TO FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF TEMPS IN
THE LONG TERM...WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANGES IN POPS AND WX BASED ON A
BLEND TO THE GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE OCCLUDED LOW SLOWLY LIFTS N/NE FROM NEAR CAPE
COD. THIS STACKED SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MEANDER TOWARDS THE GULF OF
MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA BY NIGHTFALL. SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL
WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM FOR SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. THE
HIGHER POPS ARE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND THE NRN
PORTIONS OF VT.  SEVERAL SPOKES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SPIRAL
AROUND THE SYSTEM...AND THERE COULD BE SOME W/NW UPSLOPE OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT OFF THE GREEN MTNS AND NRN DACKS. AN ADDITIONAL
QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE CYCLONE SLOWLY PULLING
AWAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO U40S OVER THE MTNS...AND LOWER
TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO M40S.

SAT-SUN NIGHT...UNFORTUNATELY ONE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE
AWAY...AND ANOTHER ONE DESCENDS S/SE FROM ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY.
THERE MAY INITIALLY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWERS...BUT THIS
NEXT UPPER LOW MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHWARD. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS. SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS WERE
PLACED IN THE FCST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER POPS WERE PLACED
FROM RUTLAND AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN NORTH AND EAST. THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGH PEAKS...AS THE H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0 TO +2C
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY. THE SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER
OFF SUNDAY MORNING...WITH MAINLY ISOLD SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER NRN NY...AND WEST OF THE GREEN MTNS.
SOME OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS IN THE W/NW FLOW WILL PERSIST
ALONG THE WRN SPINE OF THE SRN GREENS. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS /POSSIBLY A FEW U50S ON
SAT/...AND 40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS. LOWS SATURDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 30S TO L40S.

MON-TUE...IMPROVING WX TREND FOR NRN NY AND UPSTATE VT WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TO OPEN THE WEEK. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED...AND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...A RETURN S/SW
FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION. ACCORDING THE GFS H850
TEMPS SOAR BACK TO +12C TO +15C ON TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE M50S TO L60S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND LOWER TO M50S OVER THE MTNS. A MILD AND BREEZY NIGHT
IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO U40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS EXCEPT L40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS. TEMPS COULD BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER TO
M60S...AND EVEN A FEW U60S IN THE VALLEYS. THE HIGH PEAKS WILL
EVEN BE IN MID TO U50S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT TAF SITES
BRINGING INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS...AND IFR
VISIBILITIES AT KMPV. EXPECT CEILINGS TO BECOME PREDOMINATELY MVFR
BETWEEN 1-3 KFT BY 21Z...WITH IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AT KSLK AND VFR
CEILINGS AT KRUT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BETWEEN
6-12 KNOTS...EXCEPT FOR SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT FLOW AT KBTV AND KRUT.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT FOR IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
AT KMPV OVERNIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT KMSS AFTER 12Z WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKING IN. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WED - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STARTING OUT LOW BEFORE THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LARGER RIVERS ACROSS THE
AREA ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 10 FEET BELOW NORMAL. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL COME OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND WE
ARE LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK. RIVER LEVELS
WILL RISE AS A RESULT...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED NONETHELESS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 212003
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
403 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 4 PM EDT...ONE COMPACT SHORTWAVE HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST IS
ALLOWING SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE
CATSKILL REGION. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...SO SOME RAIN SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT THROUGH
THE EVENING COMMUTE.

WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
ACROSS NORTHERN NJ AND EXTREME SE NYS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
THE REMNANTS OF THIS COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/LITCHFIELD CO...AND THE SE CATSKILLS EARLY THIS EVENING AS
WELL.

SHOWERS MAY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESP FOR AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AS THE BULK
OF FORCING SHIFTS TO OUR S AND W ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND ALSO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IN THE
REGION OF STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION. HAVE KEPT CHC POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE GENERAL AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS TO DECREASE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...MAY REMAIN A BIT GREATER
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

SPOTTY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY ALSO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE SHOWERS AS LOW
LEVELS MOISTEN...AND INTERACT WITH THE TERRAIN.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...AT THIS TIME...BARRING ANY SMALLER...UNRESOLVED
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTH...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT OVER OUR REGION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...AND
PIVOTS BACK WESTWARD...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND
THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND NW MA. FURTHER S AND W...AREAL
COVERAGE MAY ONCE AGAIN REMAIN SPOTTY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
EVEN A POSSIBILITY OF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN SOME
AREAS DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOISTURE DEEPENS
AGAIN FROM NE TO SW LATE IN THE DAY. ASSUMING RAINFALL REMAINS
FAIRLY LIMITED...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

WED NT-THU...THIS APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MODERATE TO PERHAPS LOCALLY HVY
POCKETS OF RAIN...ESP ACROSS HIGHER...E-FACING SLOPES ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...THE SE ADIRONDACKS...AND ALSO THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS. THE BULK OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF AN E/NE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KT TRANSLATING
WESTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA...ALONG WITH DEEP LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING AROUND THE W/NW PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW...SHOULD FAVOR SOME BANDS OF MOD-HVY RAINFALL PIVOTING
WEST...THEN SW ACROSS THE REGION LATE WED NT INTO AT LEAST THU AM.
AGAIN...AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE SHOULD FAVOR
THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMTS FROM SOUTHERN VT INTO SE
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR. A
SECONDARY MAX OF AROUND 2 INCHES APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS DUE TO UPSLOPE...WHILE A MIN SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE
IMMEDIATE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY 0.5-1.5 INCHES
OCCURRING. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
AS WELL...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 35 MPH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...BERKSHIRES
AND TACONICS...AND POSSIBLY WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO SOME FUNNELING EFFECTS...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH COULD ALSO OCCUR. WED NT MIN TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY FALL
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...AND MAXES MAY REMAIN BELOW 50 IN
MANY AREAS ON THU DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND A PERSISTENT NORTH WIND
FUNNELING COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR SOUTHWARD...WHILE WET BULB
EFFECTS OCCUR WITH THE FALLING RAINFALL. IF THE RAIN DECREASES IN
AREAL COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON...SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS WOULD
THEN BE POSSIBLE.

THU NT...SOME ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO ROTATE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION...ESP EARLY AND FOR AREAS NEAR
AND E OF THE HUDSON RIVER. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN
MOST AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT UNSETTLED AND ENDS WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS.

ON FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN THE
GULF OF MAINE WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW BACK ACRS THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP
CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACRS THE NRN
TWO THIRDS OF THE FA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY
TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.

FOR SATURDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW LINGER
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING INTO THE FA FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT THIS POINT LOOK MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILDER DAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE CAROLINAS AND A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN ON RADAR ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL UPPER IMPULSE ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO EXIT THE
KALB...KPOU AND KGFL AREAS. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE WEST
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SMALL UPPER IMPULSE WITHIN THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW ARE BUILDING EAST.  SO SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
COULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING. VARYING COVERAGE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO GENERALLY VCSH TONIGHT. THEN...INCREASING
COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS THE MAIN
UPPER ENERGY TRACKS CLOSER TO THE REGION AND THE COASTAL LOW BEGINS
TO DEVELOP.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD HOVER JUST IN THE
VFR RANGE...JUST ABOVE 3000 FEET...BUT SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW
CLOUDS...BELOW 1000 FEET ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. TONIGHT...MAINLY MVFR...BUT SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
BELOW 1000 FEET ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...AND THEN THROUGH THE
MORNING AS RAIN INCREASES IN COVERAGE.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO EAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA...RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...EVEN THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND
WET AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION.
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH
THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO
EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS...UP TO 2 INCHES...WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND
POSSIBLY THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS...GENERALLY 0.5 TO
1.5 INCHES...OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KBTV 211807
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
207 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER HAS BEGUN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. EVENTUALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND DEVELOP AN EASTERLY FETCH OF
MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THEN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1247 PM EDT TUESDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST RAP/RUC40 CONTINUES TO IMPACT NRN NY AND UPSTATE VT.
SOME MINOR RETOOLING OF THE POPS BASED ON THE REGIONAL MOSAIC AND
LOCAL RADAR TRENDS WAS DONE ONCE AGAIN. THE SHOWERS HAVE BECOME LIKELY
AS THE H500 CLOSED CIRCULATION IS OVER LAKE ERIE. AT THE SFC...A
WEAK SFC TROUGH IS OVER CNTRL PA/CNTRL NY. THE SHOWERS HAVE BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE ENTIRE WFO BTV FCST AREA. CLOUDY SKIES AND
ON AND OFF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION TIED TO THE
UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO MAINLY L50S IN THE
DANK AIR MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 353 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO START CUTTING OFF
TONIGHT AS IT REACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
FEATURE WILL ONLY REACH THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
AS A RESULT...WE ARE LOOKING AT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION...
THERMAL PROFILE INDICATES IT WILL ALL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS IS WHEN A DEEPER EASTERLY
FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC MOVES INTO THE REGION AND ENHANCES
PRECIPITATION. THE EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME DOWNSLOPING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO OCCUR...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. HOWEVER...THE
DURATION OF THE EASTERLY FETCH WILL NOT BE TOO LONG AS EVENTUALLY
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST WITH TIME ON THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE...AFTER A DISTINCT WEST TO EAST GRADIENT OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TONIGHT...LESS WEST MORE EAST...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND WESTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 150 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL...AND WITH AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 40S EACH DAY AND HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 206 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE UNSETTLED EARLY ON...BUT A TREND TO FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF TEMPS IN
THE LONG TERM...WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANGES IN POPS AND WX BASED ON A
BLEND TO THE GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE OCCLUDED LOW SLOWLY LIFTS N/NE FROM NEAR CAPE
COD. THIS STACKED SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MEANDER TOWARDS THE GULF OF
MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA BY NIGHTFALL. SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL
WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM FOR SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. THE
HIGHER POPS ARE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND THE NRN
PORTIONS OF VT.  SEVERAL SPOKES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SPIRAL
AROUND THE SYSTEM...AND THERE COULD BE SOME W/NW UPSLOPE OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT OFF THE GREEN MTNS AND NRN DACKS. AN ADDITIONAL
QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN MAY OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE CYCLONE SLOWLY PULLING
AWAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO U40S OVER THE MTNS...AND LOWER
TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO M40S.

SAT-SUN NIGHT...UNFORTUNATELY ONE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE
AWAY...AND ANOTHER ONE DESCENDS S/SE FROM ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY.
THERE MAY INITIALLY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWERS...BUT THIS
NEXT UPPER LOW MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHWARD. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS. SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS WERE
PLACED IN THE FCST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER POPS WERE PLACED
FROM RUTLAND AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN NORTH AND EAST. THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGH PEAKS...AS THE H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0 TO +2C
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY. THE SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER
OFF SUNDAY MORNING...WITH MAINLY ISOLD SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER NRN NY...AND WEST OF THE GREEN MTNS.
SOME OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS IN THE W/NW FLOW WILL PERSIST
ALONG THE WRN SPINE OF THE SRN GREENS. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS /POSSIBLY A FEW U50S ON
SAT/...AND 40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS. LOWS SATURDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 30S TO L40S.

MON-TUE...IMPROVING WX TREND FOR NRN NY AND UPSTATE VT WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TO OPEN THE WEEK. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED...AND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY...A RETURN S/SW
FLOW OF MILD AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION. ACCORDING THE GFS H850
TEMPS SOAR BACK TO +12C TO +15C ON TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE M50S TO L60S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND LOWER TO M50S OVER THE MTNS. A MILD AND BREEZY NIGHT
IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO U40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS EXCEPT L40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS. TEMPS COULD BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER TO
M60S...AND EVEN A FEW U60S IN THE VALLEYS. THE HIGH PEAKS WILL
EVEN BE IN MID TO U50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT TAF SITES
BRINGING INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS...AND IFR
VISIBILITIES AT KMPV. EXPECT CEILINGS TO BECOME PREDOMINATELY MVFR
BETWEEN 1-3 KFT BY 21Z...WITH IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AT KSLK AND VFR
CEILINGS AT KRUT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BETWEEN
6-12 KNOTS...EXCEPT FOR SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT FLOW AT KBTV AND KRUT.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT FOR IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
AT KMPV OVERNIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT KMSS AFTER 12Z WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKING IN. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WED - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STARTING OUT LOW BEFORE THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LARGER RIVERS ACROSS THE
AREA ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 10 FEET BELOW NORMAL. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL COME OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND WE
ARE LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
THE UPSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK. RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE AS A
RESULT...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE SITUATION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED NONETHELESS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WASULA/EVESON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY EVENSON







000
FXUS61 KALY 211721
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
121 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING NORTHWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NYS
HAS ALLOWED A BAND OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN TO PERSIST ALONG ITS
EASTERN FLANK FROM THE SE CATSKILLS...INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND SW VT/NW MA. AS THIS IMPULSE CONTINUES TO MOVE
FARTHER NORTH...WE EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/RAIN TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM S TO N THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS MAY
TAKE SOME TIME...SO OCCASIONAL SHOWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH
AROUND MID AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLED AIR...AND A DEVELOPING LIGHT
NORTH WIND...WE DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB MUCH ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO
CT...WHICH IS ALREADY IN THE LOWER 60S. HERE...TEMPS MAY STILL
CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO THE N AND
COOLING DEVELOPS. ELSEWHERE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE MID
50S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...PERHAPS A BIT WARMER IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE.

OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...AND ALSO INTERMITTENTLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SCHOHARIE CO...WHERE SOME MID LEVEL
DRYING/SUBSIDENCE...AND DOWNSLOPING HAVE ALREADY ALLOWED FOR SOME
OCCASIONAL BREAKS OF SUN TO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
A SURFACE LOW ALSO DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...THERE WILL BE A DROP OFF IN PCPN ACTIVITY
TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA...THE FORECAST
AREA WILL GET INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR BAND OF PCPN AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE SURGES WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. AS A
RESULT...PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN DURING WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL BY
LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST
CATEGORICAL POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON
THURSDAY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF.

LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW STILL CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD...WITH A SPRAWLING
CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE
LIKELY POPS ARE MENTIONED. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY START TO PULL EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME SO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE COOL AND DAMP...WITH OVERCAST SKIES RESULTING IN NOT MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR WARMING.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS
TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST...AS THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DIGS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS IS THE MOST OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF KEEPING
THE BRUNT OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE CMC TO AN EXTENT...DEPICTS THE TROUGH
DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME.

SO BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE...OR COOLER TEMPS AND
MORE CLOUDS. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHICH WAY THE MODELS TREND AS THE
WEEKEND NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN ON RADAR ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL UPPER IMPULSE ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO EXIT THE
KALB...KPOU AND KGFL AREAS. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE WEST
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SMALL UPPER IMPULSE WITHIN THE DEVELOPING
UIPPER LOW ARE BUILDING EAST.  SO SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
COULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING. VARYING COVERAGE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO GENERALLY VCSH TONIGHT. THEN...INCREASING
COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH TOMMORROW MORNING AS THE MAIN
UPPER ENERGY TRACKS CLOSER TO THE REGION AND THE COASTAL LOW
BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD HOVER JUST IN THE
VFR RANGE...JUST ABOVE 3000 FEET...BUT SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW
CLOUDS...BELOW 1000 FEET ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE INCREASED LOW
LEVE MOISTURE. TONIGHT...MAINLY MVFR...BUT SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
BELOW 1000 FEET ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...AND THEN THROUGH THE
MORNING AS RAIN INCREASES IN COVERAGE.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO EAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EVEN
THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 211659
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1259 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING NORTHWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NYS
HAS ALLOWED A BAND OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN TO PERSIST ALONG ITS
EASTERN FLANK FROM THE SE CATSKILLS...INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND SW VT/NW MA. AS THIS IMPULSE CONTINUES TO MOVE
FARTHER NORTH...WE EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/RAIN TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM S TO N THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS MAY
TAKE SOME TIME...SO OCCASIONAL SHOWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH
AROUND MID AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLED AIR...AND A DEVELOPING LIGHT
NORTH WIND...WE DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB MUCH ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO
CT...WHICH IS ALREADY IN THE LOWER 60S. HERE...TEMPS MAY STILL
CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE WINDS SHIFT MORE INTO THE N AND
COOLING DEVELOPS. ELSEWHERE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE MID
50S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...PERHAPS A BIT WARMER IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE.

OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...AND ALSO INTERMITTENTLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SCHOHARIE CO...WHERE SOME MID LEVEL
DRYING/SUBSIDENCE...AND DOWNSLOPING HAVE ALREADY ALLOWED FOR SOME
OCCASIONAL BREAKS OF SUN TO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
A SURFACE LOW ALSO DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...THERE WILL BE A DROP OFF IN PCPN ACTIVITY
TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA...THE FORECAST
AREA WILL GET INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR BAND OF PCPN AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE SURGES WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. AS A
RESULT...PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN DURING WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL BY
LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST
CATEGORICAL POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON
THURSDAY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF.

LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW STILL CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD...WITH A SPRAWLING
CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE
LIKELY POPS ARE MENTIONED. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY START TO PULL EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME SO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE COOL AND DAMP...WITH OVERCAST SKIES RESULTING IN NOT MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR WARMING.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS
TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST...AS THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DIGS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS IS THE MOST OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF KEEPING
THE BRUNT OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE CMC TO AN EXTENT...DEPICTS THE TROUGH
DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME.

SO BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE...OR COOLER TEMPS AND
MORE CLOUDS. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHICH WAY THE MODELS TREND AS THE
WEEKEND NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS TODAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MENTION PREVAILING SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME AS
BATCHES OF SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH.

FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY...WITH CIGS ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASING. BY THIS EVENING THERE
WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5
KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EVEN
THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KBTV 211648
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1248 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER HAS BEGUN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. EVENTUALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND DEVELOP AN EASTERLY FETCH OF
MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THEN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1247 PM EDT TUESDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST RAP/RUC40 CONTINUES TO IMPACT NRN NY AND UPSTATE VT.
SOME MINOR RETOOLING OF THE POPS BASED ON THE REGIONAL MOSAIC AND
LOCAL RADAR TRENDS WAS DONE ONCE AGAIN. THE SHOWERS HAVE BECOME LIKELY
AS THE H500 CLOSED CIRCULATION IS OVER LAKE ERIE. AT THE SFC...A
WEAK SFC TROUGH IS OVER CNTRL PA/CNTRL NY. THE SHOWERS HAVE BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE ENTIRE WFO BTV FCST AREA. CLOUDY SKIES AND
ON AND OFF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION TIED TO THE
UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO MAINLY L50S IN THE
DANK AIR MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 353 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO START CUTTING OFF
TONIGHT AS IT REACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
FEATURE WILL ONLY REACH THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
AS A RESULT...WE ARE LOOKING AT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION...
THERMAL PROFILE INDICATES IT WILL ALL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS IS WHEN A DEEPER EASTERLY
FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC MOVES INTO THE REGION AND ENHANCES
PRECIPITATION. THE EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME DOWNSLOPING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO OCCUR...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. HOWEVER...THE
DURATION OF THE EASTERLY FETCH WILL NOT BE TOO LONG AS EVENTUALLY
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST WITH TIME ON THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE...AFTER A DISTINCT WEST TO EAST GRADIENT OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TONIGHT...LESS WEST MORE EAST...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND WESTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 150 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL...AND WITH AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 40S EACH DAY AND HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT LARGE UPPER LOW THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES ITS TRACK NORTHEAST
FROM CAPE COD 00Z FRI TO THE GULF OF MAINE AND CANADIAN MARITIMES
BY 12Z SAT. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF ANOTHER AND
UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. LATEST ECMWF DIGS THE
TROUGH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS OFFERING A CONTINUATION OF
OUR COLD AUTUMN PATTERN WITH THE 500MB LOW CLOSING OFF OVER MAINE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NOT GOING TO COMPLETELY BITE OFF ON THE
EURO YET...BUT WITH ITS RECENT GOOD PERFORMANCE IN THE PAST COUPLE
OF WEEKS IT`S HARD TO IGNORE. WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE
CONSENSUS BLEND AND OFFER TEMPS JUST A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO IN THE
40S AND 50S. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH WE MIGHT SEE SOME RELIEF FROM THE COLD AND WET
CONDITIONS TO START NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS ON THE WEEKEND SHIFTS EASTWARD ONTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MOVES IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH TEMPS
WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ALREADY...AND WILL
BE IN AND OUT OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY. NO REAL
RESTRICTIONS IN VSBY ARE EXPECTED...BUT CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AT ALL SITES...AND IFR AT KMSS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE N-NE AT 5-10KTS...WITH SUSTAINED 10-15KTS
FROM THE NE AT KMSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WED - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STARTING OUT LOW BEFORE THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LARGER RIVERS ACROSS THE
AREA ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 10 FEET BELOW NORMAL. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL COME OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND WE
ARE LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
THE UPSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK. RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE AS A
RESULT...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE SITUATION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED NONETHELESS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA/EVENSON
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON







000
FXUS61 KBTV 211429
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1029 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER HAS BEGUN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. EVENTUALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND DEVELOP AN EASTERLY FETCH OF
MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1028 AM EDT TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT
NRN NY AND UPSTATE VT. SOME MINOR RETOOLING OF THE POPS BASED ON
THE REGIONAL MOSAIC AND LOCAL RADAR TRENDS. THE SHOWERS ARE MORE
NUMEROUS SOUTH AND EAST OF KMSS...BUT THEY SHOULD FILL IN MORE
OVER THE NEXT HOURS. THE SHOWERS SHOULD FILL BACK IN OVER ERN VT
PRIOR TO NOON TOO. TEMPS REMAIN IN THE MID 30S TO M40S IN THE DAMP
AIR MASS. SLIGHT TWEAKS WERE MADE WITH THE TEMPS.

AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST THIS AFTERNOON...THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 353 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO START CUTTING OFF
TONIGHT AS IT REACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
FEATURE WILL ONLY REACH THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
AS A RESULT...WE ARE LOOKING AT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION...
THERMAL PROFILE INDICATES IT WILL ALL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS IS WHEN A DEEPER EASTERLY
FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC MOVES INTO THE REGION AND ENHANCES
PRECIPITATION. THE EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME DOWNSLOPING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO OCCUR...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. HOWEVER...THE
DURATION OF THE EASTERLY FETCH WILL NOT BE TOO LONG AS EVENTUALLY
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST WITH TIME ON THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE...AFTER A DISTINCT WEST TO EAST GRADIENT OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TONIGHT...LESS WEST MORE EAST...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND WESTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 150 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL...AND WITH AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 40S EACH DAY AND HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT LARGE UPPER LOW THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES ITS TRACK NORTHEAST
FROM CAPE COD 00Z FRI TO THE GULF OF MAINE AND CANADIAN MARITIMES
BY 12Z SAT. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF ANOTHER AND
UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. LATEST ECMWF DIGS THE
TROUGH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS OFFERING A CONTINUATION OF
OUR COLD AUTUMN PATTERN WITH THE 500MB LOW CLOSING OFF OVER MAINE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NOT GOING TO COMPLETELY BITE OFF ON THE
EURO YET...BUT WITH ITS RECENT GOOD PERFORMANCE IN THE PAST COUPLE
OF WEEKS IT`S HARD TO IGNORE. WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE
CONSENSUS BLEND AND OFFER TEMPS JUST A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO IN THE
40S AND 50S. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH WE MIGHT SEE SOME RELIEF FROM THE COLD AND WET
CONDITIONS TO START NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS ON THE WEEKEND SHIFTS EASTWARD ONTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MOVES IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH TEMPS
WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ALREADY...AND WILL
BE IN AND OUT OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY. NO REAL
RESTRICTIONS IN VSBY ARE EXPECTED...BUT CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AT ALL SITES...AND IFR AT KMSS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE N-NE AT 5-10KTS...WITH SUSTAINED 10-15KTS
FROM THE NE AT KMSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WED - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STARTING OUT LOW BEFORE THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LARGER RIVERS ACROSS THE
AREA ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 10 FEET BELOW NORMAL. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL COME OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND WE
ARE LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
THE UPSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK. RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE AS A
RESULT...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE SITUATION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED NONETHELESS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA/EVENSON
NEAR TERM...WASULA/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON






000
FXUS61 KBTV 211429
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1029 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER HAS BEGUN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. EVENTUALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND DEVELOP AN EASTERLY FETCH OF
MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1028 AM EDT TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT
NRN NY AND UPSTATE VT. SOME MINOR RETOOLING OF THE POPS BASED ON
THE REGIONAL MOSAIC AND LOCAL RADAR TRENDS. THE SHOWERS ARE MORE
NUMEROUS SOUTH AND EAST OF KMSS...BUT THEY SHOULD FILL IN MORE
OVER THE NEXT HOURS. THE SHOWERS SHOULD FILL BACK IN OVER ERN VT
PRIOR TO NOON TOO. TEMPS REMAIN IN THE MID 30S TO M40S IN THE DAMP
AIR MASS. SLIGHT TWEAKS WERE MADE WITH THE TEMPS.

AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST THIS AFTERNOON...THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 353 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO START CUTTING OFF
TONIGHT AS IT REACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
FEATURE WILL ONLY REACH THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
AS A RESULT...WE ARE LOOKING AT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION...
THERMAL PROFILE INDICATES IT WILL ALL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS IS WHEN A DEEPER EASTERLY
FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC MOVES INTO THE REGION AND ENHANCES
PRECIPITATION. THE EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME DOWNSLOPING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO OCCUR...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. HOWEVER...THE
DURATION OF THE EASTERLY FETCH WILL NOT BE TOO LONG AS EVENTUALLY
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST WITH TIME ON THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE...AFTER A DISTINCT WEST TO EAST GRADIENT OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TONIGHT...LESS WEST MORE EAST...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND WESTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 150 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL...AND WITH AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 40S EACH DAY AND HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT LARGE UPPER LOW THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES ITS TRACK NORTHEAST
FROM CAPE COD 00Z FRI TO THE GULF OF MAINE AND CANADIAN MARITIMES
BY 12Z SAT. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF ANOTHER AND
UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. LATEST ECMWF DIGS THE
TROUGH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS OFFERING A CONTINUATION OF
OUR COLD AUTUMN PATTERN WITH THE 500MB LOW CLOSING OFF OVER MAINE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NOT GOING TO COMPLETELY BITE OFF ON THE
EURO YET...BUT WITH ITS RECENT GOOD PERFORMANCE IN THE PAST COUPLE
OF WEEKS IT`S HARD TO IGNORE. WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE
CONSENSUS BLEND AND OFFER TEMPS JUST A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO IN THE
40S AND 50S. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH WE MIGHT SEE SOME RELIEF FROM THE COLD AND WET
CONDITIONS TO START NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS ON THE WEEKEND SHIFTS EASTWARD ONTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MOVES IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH TEMPS
WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ALREADY...AND WILL
BE IN AND OUT OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY. NO REAL
RESTRICTIONS IN VSBY ARE EXPECTED...BUT CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AT ALL SITES...AND IFR AT KMSS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE N-NE AT 5-10KTS...WITH SUSTAINED 10-15KTS
FROM THE NE AT KMSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WED - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STARTING OUT LOW BEFORE THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LARGER RIVERS ACROSS THE
AREA ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 10 FEET BELOW NORMAL. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL COME OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND WE
ARE LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
THE UPSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK. RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE AS A
RESULT...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE SITUATION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED NONETHELESS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA/EVENSON
NEAR TERM...WASULA/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON







000
FXUS61 KALY 211411
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1011 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SMALL UPPER IMPULSE SEEN ON RADAR ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER...
SUPPORTING PATCHES OF SHOWERS/LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. SPOTTY
SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NY MUCH LESS COVERAGE BUT COULD
EXPAND LATER TODAY AS IT SEEMS THERE IS SOME SORT OF LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN PA/NJ INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
ACTING AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS TO THE
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...OVER OUR REGION. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
COULD BE FEW...WHICH WOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURE RISES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT
OF THE PARTIAL CLEARING SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY. THE MID
HUDSON VALLYE AND NW CT HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING SOME
BREAKS AND AT LEAST SOME WARMING THIS AFTERNOON. LOWERED MAX
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES...MAYBE NOT ENOUGH IN SOME
AREAS...AND ADJUSTED SKY COVER A BIT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE IN THE PROCESS DEVELOPING INTO A
CLOSED UPPER LOW TODAY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
FOR TODAY THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. RADAR PICS AS OF 430 AM SHOW ENOUGH PCPN
COVERAGE TO WARRANT INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY IN ALL AREAS
TODAY...AND TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
A SURFACE LOW ALSO DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...THERE WILL BE A DROP OFF IN PCPN ACTIVITY
TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA...THE FORECAST
AREA WILL GET INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR BAND OF PCPN AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE SURGES WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. AS A
RESULT...PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN DURING WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL BY
LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST
CATEGORICAL POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON
THURSDAY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF.

LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW STILL CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD...WITH A SPRAWLING
CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE
LIKELY POPS ARE MENTIONED. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY START TO PULL EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME SO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE COOL AND DAMP...WITH OVERCAST SKIES RESULTING IN NOT MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR WARMING.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS
TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST...AS THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DIGS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS IS THE MOST OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF KEEPING
THE BRUNT OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE CMC TO AN EXTENT...DEPICTS THE TROUGH
DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME.

SO BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE...OR COOLER TEMPS AND
MORE CLOUDS. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHICH WAY THE MODELS TREND AS THE
WEEKEND NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS TODAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MENTION PREVAILING SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME AS
BATCHES OF SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH.

FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY...WITH CIGS ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASING. BY THIS EVENING THERE
WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5
KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EVEN
THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KBTV 211136
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
736 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEGUN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. EVENTUALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND DEVELOP AN EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE
FROM THE ATLANTIC LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE NET RESULT OF THIS
SCENARIO WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT...THEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 728 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ADD A LITTLE SNOW UP AT
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AS MOUNT MANSFIELD AND WHITEFACE REPORTING
TEMPERATURES AROUND 32. THIS SHOULD LAST FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. OTHERWISE. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST TO OUR WEST EARLY THIS MORNING
IS ENHANCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AND AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY...THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 353 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO START CUTTING OFF
TONIGHT AS IT REACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
FEATURE WILL ONLY REACH THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
AS A RESULT...WE ARE LOOKING AT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION...
THERMAL PROFILE INDICATES IT WILL ALL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS IS WHEN A DEEPER EASTERLY
FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC MOVES INTO THE REGION AND ENHANCES
PRECIPITATION. THE EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME DOWNSLOPING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO OCCUR...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. HOWEVER...THE
DURATION OF THE EASTERLY FETCH WILL NOT BE TOO LONG AS EVENTUALLY
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST WITH TIME ON THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE...AFTER A DISTINCT WEST TO EAST GRADIENT OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TONIGHT...LESS WEST MORE EAST...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND WESTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 150 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL...AND WITH AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 40S EACH DAY AND HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT LARGE UPPER LOW THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES ITS TRACK NORTHEAST
FROM CAPE COD 00Z FRI TO THE GULF OF MAINE AND CANADIAN MARITIMES
BY 12Z SAT. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF ANOTHER AND
UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. LATEST ECMWF DIGS THE
TROUGH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS OFFERING A CONTINUATION OF
OUR COLD AUTUMN PATTERN WITH THE 500MB LOW CLOSING OFF OVER MAINE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NOT GOING TO COMPLETELY BITE OFF ON THE
EURO YET...BUT WITH ITS RECENT GOOD PERFORMANCE IN THE PAST COUPLE
OF WEEKS IT`S HARD TO IGNORE. WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE
CONSENSUS BLEND AND OFFER TEMPS JUST A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO IN THE
40S AND 50S. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH WE MIGHT SEE SOME RELIEF FROM THE COLD AND WET
CONDITIONS TO START NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS ON THE WEEKEND SHIFTS EASTWARD ONTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MOVES IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH TEMPS
WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ALREADY...AND WILL
BE IN AND OUT OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY. NO REAL
RESTRICTIONS IN VSBY ARE EXPECTED...BUT CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AT ALL SITES...AND IFR AT KMSS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE N-NE AT 5-10KTS...WITH SUSTAINED 10-15KTS
FROM THE NE AT KMSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WED - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STARTING OUT LOW BEFORE THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LARGER RIVERS ACROSS THE
AREA ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 10 FEET BELOW NORMAL. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL COME OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND WE
ARE LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
THE UPSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK. RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE AS A
RESULT...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE SITUATION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED NONETHELESS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON








000
FXUS61 KBTV 211136
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
736 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEGUN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. EVENTUALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND DEVELOP AN EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE
FROM THE ATLANTIC LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE NET RESULT OF THIS
SCENARIO WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT...THEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 728 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ADD A LITTLE SNOW UP AT
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AS MOUNT MANSFIELD AND WHITEFACE REPORTING
TEMPERATURES AROUND 32. THIS SHOULD LAST FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. OTHERWISE. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST TO OUR WEST EARLY THIS MORNING
IS ENHANCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AND AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY...THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 353 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO START CUTTING OFF
TONIGHT AS IT REACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
FEATURE WILL ONLY REACH THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
AS A RESULT...WE ARE LOOKING AT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION...
THERMAL PROFILE INDICATES IT WILL ALL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS IS WHEN A DEEPER EASTERLY
FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC MOVES INTO THE REGION AND ENHANCES
PRECIPITATION. THE EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME DOWNSLOPING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO OCCUR...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. HOWEVER...THE
DURATION OF THE EASTERLY FETCH WILL NOT BE TOO LONG AS EVENTUALLY
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST WITH TIME ON THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE...AFTER A DISTINCT WEST TO EAST GRADIENT OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TONIGHT...LESS WEST MORE EAST...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND WESTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 150 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL...AND WITH AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 40S EACH DAY AND HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT LARGE UPPER LOW THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES ITS TRACK NORTHEAST
FROM CAPE COD 00Z FRI TO THE GULF OF MAINE AND CANADIAN MARITIMES
BY 12Z SAT. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF ANOTHER AND
UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. LATEST ECMWF DIGS THE
TROUGH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS OFFERING A CONTINUATION OF
OUR COLD AUTUMN PATTERN WITH THE 500MB LOW CLOSING OFF OVER MAINE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NOT GOING TO COMPLETELY BITE OFF ON THE
EURO YET...BUT WITH ITS RECENT GOOD PERFORMANCE IN THE PAST COUPLE
OF WEEKS IT`S HARD TO IGNORE. WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE
CONSENSUS BLEND AND OFFER TEMPS JUST A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO IN THE
40S AND 50S. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH WE MIGHT SEE SOME RELIEF FROM THE COLD AND WET
CONDITIONS TO START NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS ON THE WEEKEND SHIFTS EASTWARD ONTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MOVES IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH TEMPS
WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ALREADY...AND WILL
BE IN AND OUT OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY. NO REAL
RESTRICTIONS IN VSBY ARE EXPECTED...BUT CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AT ALL SITES...AND IFR AT KMSS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE N-NE AT 5-10KTS...WITH SUSTAINED 10-15KTS
FROM THE NE AT KMSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WED - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STARTING OUT LOW BEFORE THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LARGER RIVERS ACROSS THE
AREA ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 10 FEET BELOW NORMAL. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL COME OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND WE
ARE LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
THE UPSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK. RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE AS A
RESULT...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE SITUATION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED NONETHELESS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON









000
FXUS61 KBTV 211136
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
736 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEGUN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. EVENTUALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND DEVELOP AN EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE
FROM THE ATLANTIC LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE NET RESULT OF THIS
SCENARIO WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT...THEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 728 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ADD A LITTLE SNOW UP AT
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AS MOUNT MANSFIELD AND WHITEFACE REPORTING
TEMPERATURES AROUND 32. THIS SHOULD LAST FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. OTHERWISE. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST TO OUR WEST EARLY THIS MORNING
IS ENHANCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AND AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY...THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 353 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO START CUTTING OFF
TONIGHT AS IT REACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
FEATURE WILL ONLY REACH THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
AS A RESULT...WE ARE LOOKING AT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION...
THERMAL PROFILE INDICATES IT WILL ALL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS IS WHEN A DEEPER EASTERLY
FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC MOVES INTO THE REGION AND ENHANCES
PRECIPITATION. THE EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME DOWNSLOPING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO OCCUR...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. HOWEVER...THE
DURATION OF THE EASTERLY FETCH WILL NOT BE TOO LONG AS EVENTUALLY
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST WITH TIME ON THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE...AFTER A DISTINCT WEST TO EAST GRADIENT OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TONIGHT...LESS WEST MORE EAST...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND WESTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 150 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL...AND WITH AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 40S EACH DAY AND HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT LARGE UPPER LOW THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES ITS TRACK NORTHEAST
FROM CAPE COD 00Z FRI TO THE GULF OF MAINE AND CANADIAN MARITIMES
BY 12Z SAT. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF ANOTHER AND
UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. LATEST ECMWF DIGS THE
TROUGH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS OFFERING A CONTINUATION OF
OUR COLD AUTUMN PATTERN WITH THE 500MB LOW CLOSING OFF OVER MAINE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NOT GOING TO COMPLETELY BITE OFF ON THE
EURO YET...BUT WITH ITS RECENT GOOD PERFORMANCE IN THE PAST COUPLE
OF WEEKS IT`S HARD TO IGNORE. WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE
CONSENSUS BLEND AND OFFER TEMPS JUST A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO IN THE
40S AND 50S. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH WE MIGHT SEE SOME RELIEF FROM THE COLD AND WET
CONDITIONS TO START NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS ON THE WEEKEND SHIFTS EASTWARD ONTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MOVES IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH TEMPS
WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ALREADY...AND WILL
BE IN AND OUT OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY. NO REAL
RESTRICTIONS IN VSBY ARE EXPECTED...BUT CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AT ALL SITES...AND IFR AT KMSS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE N-NE AT 5-10KTS...WITH SUSTAINED 10-15KTS
FROM THE NE AT KMSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WED - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STARTING OUT LOW BEFORE THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LARGER RIVERS ACROSS THE
AREA ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 10 FEET BELOW NORMAL. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL COME OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND WE
ARE LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
THE UPSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK. RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE AS A
RESULT...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE SITUATION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED NONETHELESS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON









000
FXUS61 KBTV 211136
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
736 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEGUN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. EVENTUALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND DEVELOP AN EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE
FROM THE ATLANTIC LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE NET RESULT OF THIS
SCENARIO WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT...THEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 728 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ADD A LITTLE SNOW UP AT
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AS MOUNT MANSFIELD AND WHITEFACE REPORTING
TEMPERATURES AROUND 32. THIS SHOULD LAST FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. OTHERWISE. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST TO OUR WEST EARLY THIS MORNING
IS ENHANCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AND AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY...THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 353 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO START CUTTING OFF
TONIGHT AS IT REACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
FEATURE WILL ONLY REACH THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
AS A RESULT...WE ARE LOOKING AT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION...
THERMAL PROFILE INDICATES IT WILL ALL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS IS WHEN A DEEPER EASTERLY
FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC MOVES INTO THE REGION AND ENHANCES
PRECIPITATION. THE EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME DOWNSLOPING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO OCCUR...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. HOWEVER...THE
DURATION OF THE EASTERLY FETCH WILL NOT BE TOO LONG AS EVENTUALLY
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST WITH TIME ON THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE...AFTER A DISTINCT WEST TO EAST GRADIENT OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TONIGHT...LESS WEST MORE EAST...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND WESTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 150 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL...AND WITH AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 40S EACH DAY AND HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT LARGE UPPER LOW THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES ITS TRACK NORTHEAST
FROM CAPE COD 00Z FRI TO THE GULF OF MAINE AND CANADIAN MARITIMES
BY 12Z SAT. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF ANOTHER AND
UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. LATEST ECMWF DIGS THE
TROUGH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS OFFERING A CONTINUATION OF
OUR COLD AUTUMN PATTERN WITH THE 500MB LOW CLOSING OFF OVER MAINE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NOT GOING TO COMPLETELY BITE OFF ON THE
EURO YET...BUT WITH ITS RECENT GOOD PERFORMANCE IN THE PAST COUPLE
OF WEEKS IT`S HARD TO IGNORE. WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE
CONSENSUS BLEND AND OFFER TEMPS JUST A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO IN THE
40S AND 50S. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH WE MIGHT SEE SOME RELIEF FROM THE COLD AND WET
CONDITIONS TO START NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS ON THE WEEKEND SHIFTS EASTWARD ONTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MOVES IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH TEMPS
WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ALREADY...AND WILL
BE IN AND OUT OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY. NO REAL
RESTRICTIONS IN VSBY ARE EXPECTED...BUT CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AT ALL SITES...AND IFR AT KMSS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE N-NE AT 5-10KTS...WITH SUSTAINED 10-15KTS
FROM THE NE AT KMSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WED - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STARTING OUT LOW BEFORE THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LARGER RIVERS ACROSS THE
AREA ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 10 FEET BELOW NORMAL. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL COME OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND WE
ARE LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
THE UPSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK. RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE AS A
RESULT...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE SITUATION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED NONETHELESS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON









000
FXUS61 KBTV 211136
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
736 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEGUN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. EVENTUALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND DEVELOP AN EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE
FROM THE ATLANTIC LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE NET RESULT OF THIS
SCENARIO WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT...THEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 728 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ADD A LITTLE SNOW UP AT
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AS MOUNT MANSFIELD AND WHITEFACE REPORTING
TEMPERATURES AROUND 32. THIS SHOULD LAST FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. OTHERWISE. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST TO OUR WEST EARLY THIS MORNING
IS ENHANCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AND AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY...THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 353 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO START CUTTING OFF
TONIGHT AS IT REACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
FEATURE WILL ONLY REACH THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
AS A RESULT...WE ARE LOOKING AT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION...
THERMAL PROFILE INDICATES IT WILL ALL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS IS WHEN A DEEPER EASTERLY
FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC MOVES INTO THE REGION AND ENHANCES
PRECIPITATION. THE EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME DOWNSLOPING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO OCCUR...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. HOWEVER...THE
DURATION OF THE EASTERLY FETCH WILL NOT BE TOO LONG AS EVENTUALLY
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST WITH TIME ON THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE...AFTER A DISTINCT WEST TO EAST GRADIENT OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TONIGHT...LESS WEST MORE EAST...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND WESTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 150 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL...AND WITH AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 40S EACH DAY AND HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT LARGE UPPER LOW THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES ITS TRACK NORTHEAST
FROM CAPE COD 00Z FRI TO THE GULF OF MAINE AND CANADIAN MARITIMES
BY 12Z SAT. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF ANOTHER AND
UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. LATEST ECMWF DIGS THE
TROUGH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS OFFERING A CONTINUATION OF
OUR COLD AUTUMN PATTERN WITH THE 500MB LOW CLOSING OFF OVER MAINE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NOT GOING TO COMPLETELY BITE OFF ON THE
EURO YET...BUT WITH ITS RECENT GOOD PERFORMANCE IN THE PAST COUPLE
OF WEEKS IT`S HARD TO IGNORE. WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE
CONSENSUS BLEND AND OFFER TEMPS JUST A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO IN THE
40S AND 50S. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH WE MIGHT SEE SOME RELIEF FROM THE COLD AND WET
CONDITIONS TO START NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS ON THE WEEKEND SHIFTS EASTWARD ONTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MOVES IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH TEMPS
WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ALREADY...AND WILL
BE IN AND OUT OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY. NO REAL
RESTRICTIONS IN VSBY ARE EXPECTED...BUT CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AT ALL SITES...AND IFR AT KMSS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE N-NE AT 5-10KTS...WITH SUSTAINED 10-15KTS
FROM THE NE AT KMSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WED - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STARTING OUT LOW BEFORE THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LARGER RIVERS ACROSS THE
AREA ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 10 FEET BELOW NORMAL. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL COME OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND WE
ARE LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
THE UPSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK. RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE AS A
RESULT...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE SITUATION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED NONETHELESS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON









000
FXUS61 KBTV 211136
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
736 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEGUN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. EVENTUALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND DEVELOP AN EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE
FROM THE ATLANTIC LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE NET RESULT OF THIS
SCENARIO WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT...THEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 728 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ADD A LITTLE SNOW UP AT
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AS MOUNT MANSFIELD AND WHITEFACE REPORTING
TEMPERATURES AROUND 32. THIS SHOULD LAST FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. OTHERWISE. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST TO OUR WEST EARLY THIS MORNING
IS ENHANCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AND AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY...THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 353 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO START CUTTING OFF
TONIGHT AS IT REACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
FEATURE WILL ONLY REACH THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
AS A RESULT...WE ARE LOOKING AT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION...
THERMAL PROFILE INDICATES IT WILL ALL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS IS WHEN A DEEPER EASTERLY
FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC MOVES INTO THE REGION AND ENHANCES
PRECIPITATION. THE EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME DOWNSLOPING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO OCCUR...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. HOWEVER...THE
DURATION OF THE EASTERLY FETCH WILL NOT BE TOO LONG AS EVENTUALLY
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST WITH TIME ON THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE...AFTER A DISTINCT WEST TO EAST GRADIENT OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TONIGHT...LESS WEST MORE EAST...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND WESTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 150 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL...AND WITH AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 40S EACH DAY AND HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT LARGE UPPER LOW THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES ITS TRACK NORTHEAST
FROM CAPE COD 00Z FRI TO THE GULF OF MAINE AND CANADIAN MARITIMES
BY 12Z SAT. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF ANOTHER AND
UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. LATEST ECMWF DIGS THE
TROUGH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS OFFERING A CONTINUATION OF
OUR COLD AUTUMN PATTERN WITH THE 500MB LOW CLOSING OFF OVER MAINE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NOT GOING TO COMPLETELY BITE OFF ON THE
EURO YET...BUT WITH ITS RECENT GOOD PERFORMANCE IN THE PAST COUPLE
OF WEEKS IT`S HARD TO IGNORE. WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE
CONSENSUS BLEND AND OFFER TEMPS JUST A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO IN THE
40S AND 50S. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH WE MIGHT SEE SOME RELIEF FROM THE COLD AND WET
CONDITIONS TO START NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS ON THE WEEKEND SHIFTS EASTWARD ONTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MOVES IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH TEMPS
WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ALREADY...AND WILL
BE IN AND OUT OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY. NO REAL
RESTRICTIONS IN VSBY ARE EXPECTED...BUT CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AT ALL SITES...AND IFR AT KMSS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE N-NE AT 5-10KTS...WITH SUSTAINED 10-15KTS
FROM THE NE AT KMSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WED - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STARTING OUT LOW BEFORE THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LARGER RIVERS ACROSS THE
AREA ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 10 FEET BELOW NORMAL. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL COME OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND WE
ARE LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
THE UPSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK. RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE AS A
RESULT...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE SITUATION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED NONETHELESS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON









000
FXUS61 KBTV 211128
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
728 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEGUN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. EVENTUALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND DEVELOP AN EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE
FROM THE ATLANTIC LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE NET RESULT OF THIS
SCENARIO WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT...THEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 728 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ADD A LITTLE SNOW UP AT
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AS MOUNT MANSFIELD AND WHITEFACE REPORTING
TEMPERATURES AROUND 32. THIS SHOULD LAST FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. OTHERWISE. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST TO OUR WEST EARLY THIS MORNING
IS ENHANCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AND AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY...THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 353 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO START CUTTING OFF
TONIGHT AS IT REACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
FEATURE WILL ONLY REACH THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
AS A RESULT...WE ARE LOOKING AT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION...
THERMAL PROFILE INDICATES IT WILL ALL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS IS WHEN A DEEPER EASTERLY
FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC MOVES INTO THE REGION AND ENHANCES
PRECIPITATION. THE EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME DOWNSLOPING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO OCCUR...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. HOWEVER...THE
DURATION OF THE EASTERLY FETCH WILL NOT BE TOO LONG AS EVENTUALLY
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST WITH TIME ON THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE...AFTER A DISTINCT WEST TO EAST GRADIENT OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TONIGHT...LESS WEST MORE EAST...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND WESTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 150 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL...AND WITH AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 40S EACH DAY AND HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT LARGE UPPER LOW THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES ITS TRACK NORTHEAST
FROM CAPE COD 00Z FRI TO THE GULF OF MAINE AND CANADIAN MARITIMES
BY 12Z SAT. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF ANOTHER AND
UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. LATEST ECMWF DIGS THE
TROUGH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS OFFERING A CONTINUATION OF
OUR COLD AUTUMN PATTERN WITH THE 500MB LOW CLOSING OFF OVER MAINE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NOT GOING TO COMPLETELY BITE OFF ON THE
EURO YET...BUT WITH ITS RECENT GOOD PERFORMANCE IN THE PAST COUPLE
OF WEEKS IT`S HARD TO IGNORE. WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE
CONSENSUS BLEND AND OFFER TEMPS JUST A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO IN THE
40S AND 50S. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH WE MIGHT SEE SOME RELIEF FROM THE COLD AND WET
CONDITIONS TO START NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS ON THE WEEKEND SHIFTS EASTWARD ONTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MOVES IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH TEMPS
WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION BY MID-DAY...THOUGH NOT LOOKING AT ANY REAL RESTRICTIONS
IN VSBY PER UPSTREAM OBS. CIGS ARE ANOTHER STORY THOUGH.
KSLK/KRUT/KMPV WILL GENERALLY LOWER TO ONLY MVFR THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...THEN POSSIBLY DOWN TO IFR AFTER 00Z. JUST NW OF
KMSS CIGS ARE IFR ON NORTHEAST FLOW...AND THESE LOWER CEILINGS
SHOULD SHIFT INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY FROM 08-10Z AND REMAIN
THERE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FOR KPBG/KBTV...WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO
THE N-NE FEEL IFR CIGS NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL DRAIN DOWN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...LIKELY MID-MORNING FOR KPBG AND TOWARDS THE
EVENING FOR KBTV. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BY LIGHT FROM 5-10KTS AND
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION FROM SITE TO SITE. EXCEPTION WILL BE KMSS
WHERE NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A STEADY 10-15KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STARTING OUT LOW BEFORE THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LARGER RIVERS ACROSS THE
AREA ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 10 FEET BELOW NORMAL. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL COME OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND WE
ARE LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
THE UPSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK. RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE AS A
RESULT...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE SITUATION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED NONETHELESS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON








000
FXUS61 KBTV 211128
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
728 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEGUN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. EVENTUALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND DEVELOP AN EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE
FROM THE ATLANTIC LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE NET RESULT OF THIS
SCENARIO WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT...THEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 728 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ADD A LITTLE SNOW UP AT
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AS MOUNT MANSFIELD AND WHITEFACE REPORTING
TEMPERATURES AROUND 32. THIS SHOULD LAST FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. OTHERWISE. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST TO OUR WEST EARLY THIS MORNING
IS ENHANCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AND AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY...THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 353 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO START CUTTING OFF
TONIGHT AS IT REACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
FEATURE WILL ONLY REACH THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
AS A RESULT...WE ARE LOOKING AT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION...
THERMAL PROFILE INDICATES IT WILL ALL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS IS WHEN A DEEPER EASTERLY
FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC MOVES INTO THE REGION AND ENHANCES
PRECIPITATION. THE EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME DOWNSLOPING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO OCCUR...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. HOWEVER...THE
DURATION OF THE EASTERLY FETCH WILL NOT BE TOO LONG AS EVENTUALLY
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST WITH TIME ON THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE...AFTER A DISTINCT WEST TO EAST GRADIENT OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TONIGHT...LESS WEST MORE EAST...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND WESTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 150 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL...AND WITH AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 40S EACH DAY AND HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT LARGE UPPER LOW THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES ITS TRACK NORTHEAST
FROM CAPE COD 00Z FRI TO THE GULF OF MAINE AND CANADIAN MARITIMES
BY 12Z SAT. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF ANOTHER AND
UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. LATEST ECMWF DIGS THE
TROUGH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS OFFERING A CONTINUATION OF
OUR COLD AUTUMN PATTERN WITH THE 500MB LOW CLOSING OFF OVER MAINE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NOT GOING TO COMPLETELY BITE OFF ON THE
EURO YET...BUT WITH ITS RECENT GOOD PERFORMANCE IN THE PAST COUPLE
OF WEEKS IT`S HARD TO IGNORE. WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE
CONSENSUS BLEND AND OFFER TEMPS JUST A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO IN THE
40S AND 50S. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH WE MIGHT SEE SOME RELIEF FROM THE COLD AND WET
CONDITIONS TO START NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS ON THE WEEKEND SHIFTS EASTWARD ONTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MOVES IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH TEMPS
WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION BY MID-DAY...THOUGH NOT LOOKING AT ANY REAL RESTRICTIONS
IN VSBY PER UPSTREAM OBS. CIGS ARE ANOTHER STORY THOUGH.
KSLK/KRUT/KMPV WILL GENERALLY LOWER TO ONLY MVFR THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...THEN POSSIBLY DOWN TO IFR AFTER 00Z. JUST NW OF
KMSS CIGS ARE IFR ON NORTHEAST FLOW...AND THESE LOWER CEILINGS
SHOULD SHIFT INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY FROM 08-10Z AND REMAIN
THERE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FOR KPBG/KBTV...WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO
THE N-NE FEEL IFR CIGS NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL DRAIN DOWN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...LIKELY MID-MORNING FOR KPBG AND TOWARDS THE
EVENING FOR KBTV. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BY LIGHT FROM 5-10KTS AND
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION FROM SITE TO SITE. EXCEPTION WILL BE KMSS
WHERE NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A STEADY 10-15KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STARTING OUT LOW BEFORE THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LARGER RIVERS ACROSS THE
AREA ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 10 FEET BELOW NORMAL. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL COME OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND WE
ARE LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
THE UPSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK. RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE AS A
RESULT...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE SITUATION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED NONETHELESS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON









000
FXUS61 KBTV 211128
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
728 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEGUN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. EVENTUALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND DEVELOP AN EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE
FROM THE ATLANTIC LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE NET RESULT OF THIS
SCENARIO WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT...THEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 728 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ADD A LITTLE SNOW UP AT
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AS MOUNT MANSFIELD AND WHITEFACE REPORTING
TEMPERATURES AROUND 32. THIS SHOULD LAST FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. OTHERWISE. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST TO OUR WEST EARLY THIS MORNING
IS ENHANCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AND AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY...THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 353 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO START CUTTING OFF
TONIGHT AS IT REACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
FEATURE WILL ONLY REACH THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
AS A RESULT...WE ARE LOOKING AT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION...
THERMAL PROFILE INDICATES IT WILL ALL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS IS WHEN A DEEPER EASTERLY
FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC MOVES INTO THE REGION AND ENHANCES
PRECIPITATION. THE EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME DOWNSLOPING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO OCCUR...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. HOWEVER...THE
DURATION OF THE EASTERLY FETCH WILL NOT BE TOO LONG AS EVENTUALLY
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST WITH TIME ON THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE...AFTER A DISTINCT WEST TO EAST GRADIENT OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TONIGHT...LESS WEST MORE EAST...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND WESTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 150 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL...AND WITH AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 40S EACH DAY AND HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT LARGE UPPER LOW THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES ITS TRACK NORTHEAST
FROM CAPE COD 00Z FRI TO THE GULF OF MAINE AND CANADIAN MARITIMES
BY 12Z SAT. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF ANOTHER AND
UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. LATEST ECMWF DIGS THE
TROUGH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS OFFERING A CONTINUATION OF
OUR COLD AUTUMN PATTERN WITH THE 500MB LOW CLOSING OFF OVER MAINE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NOT GOING TO COMPLETELY BITE OFF ON THE
EURO YET...BUT WITH ITS RECENT GOOD PERFORMANCE IN THE PAST COUPLE
OF WEEKS IT`S HARD TO IGNORE. WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE
CONSENSUS BLEND AND OFFER TEMPS JUST A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO IN THE
40S AND 50S. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH WE MIGHT SEE SOME RELIEF FROM THE COLD AND WET
CONDITIONS TO START NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS ON THE WEEKEND SHIFTS EASTWARD ONTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MOVES IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH TEMPS
WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION BY MID-DAY...THOUGH NOT LOOKING AT ANY REAL RESTRICTIONS
IN VSBY PER UPSTREAM OBS. CIGS ARE ANOTHER STORY THOUGH.
KSLK/KRUT/KMPV WILL GENERALLY LOWER TO ONLY MVFR THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...THEN POSSIBLY DOWN TO IFR AFTER 00Z. JUST NW OF
KMSS CIGS ARE IFR ON NORTHEAST FLOW...AND THESE LOWER CEILINGS
SHOULD SHIFT INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY FROM 08-10Z AND REMAIN
THERE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FOR KPBG/KBTV...WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO
THE N-NE FEEL IFR CIGS NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL DRAIN DOWN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...LIKELY MID-MORNING FOR KPBG AND TOWARDS THE
EVENING FOR KBTV. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BY LIGHT FROM 5-10KTS AND
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION FROM SITE TO SITE. EXCEPTION WILL BE KMSS
WHERE NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A STEADY 10-15KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STARTING OUT LOW BEFORE THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LARGER RIVERS ACROSS THE
AREA ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 10 FEET BELOW NORMAL. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL COME OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND WE
ARE LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
THE UPSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK. RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE AS A
RESULT...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE SITUATION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED NONETHELESS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON









000
FXUS61 KBTV 211128
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
728 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEGUN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. EVENTUALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND DEVELOP AN EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE
FROM THE ATLANTIC LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE NET RESULT OF THIS
SCENARIO WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT...THEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 728 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ADD A LITTLE SNOW UP AT
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AS MOUNT MANSFIELD AND WHITEFACE REPORTING
TEMPERATURES AROUND 32. THIS SHOULD LAST FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. OTHERWISE. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST TO OUR WEST EARLY THIS MORNING
IS ENHANCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AND AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY...THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 353 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO START CUTTING OFF
TONIGHT AS IT REACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
FEATURE WILL ONLY REACH THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
AS A RESULT...WE ARE LOOKING AT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION...
THERMAL PROFILE INDICATES IT WILL ALL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS IS WHEN A DEEPER EASTERLY
FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC MOVES INTO THE REGION AND ENHANCES
PRECIPITATION. THE EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME DOWNSLOPING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO OCCUR...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. HOWEVER...THE
DURATION OF THE EASTERLY FETCH WILL NOT BE TOO LONG AS EVENTUALLY
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST WITH TIME ON THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE...AFTER A DISTINCT WEST TO EAST GRADIENT OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TONIGHT...LESS WEST MORE EAST...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND WESTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 150 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL...AND WITH AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 40S EACH DAY AND HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT LARGE UPPER LOW THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES ITS TRACK NORTHEAST
FROM CAPE COD 00Z FRI TO THE GULF OF MAINE AND CANADIAN MARITIMES
BY 12Z SAT. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF ANOTHER AND
UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. LATEST ECMWF DIGS THE
TROUGH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS OFFERING A CONTINUATION OF
OUR COLD AUTUMN PATTERN WITH THE 500MB LOW CLOSING OFF OVER MAINE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NOT GOING TO COMPLETELY BITE OFF ON THE
EURO YET...BUT WITH ITS RECENT GOOD PERFORMANCE IN THE PAST COUPLE
OF WEEKS IT`S HARD TO IGNORE. WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE
CONSENSUS BLEND AND OFFER TEMPS JUST A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO IN THE
40S AND 50S. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH WE MIGHT SEE SOME RELIEF FROM THE COLD AND WET
CONDITIONS TO START NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS ON THE WEEKEND SHIFTS EASTWARD ONTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MOVES IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH TEMPS
WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION BY MID-DAY...THOUGH NOT LOOKING AT ANY REAL RESTRICTIONS
IN VSBY PER UPSTREAM OBS. CIGS ARE ANOTHER STORY THOUGH.
KSLK/KRUT/KMPV WILL GENERALLY LOWER TO ONLY MVFR THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...THEN POSSIBLY DOWN TO IFR AFTER 00Z. JUST NW OF
KMSS CIGS ARE IFR ON NORTHEAST FLOW...AND THESE LOWER CEILINGS
SHOULD SHIFT INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY FROM 08-10Z AND REMAIN
THERE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FOR KPBG/KBTV...WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO
THE N-NE FEEL IFR CIGS NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL DRAIN DOWN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...LIKELY MID-MORNING FOR KPBG AND TOWARDS THE
EVENING FOR KBTV. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BY LIGHT FROM 5-10KTS AND
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION FROM SITE TO SITE. EXCEPTION WILL BE KMSS
WHERE NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A STEADY 10-15KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STARTING OUT LOW BEFORE THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LARGER RIVERS ACROSS THE
AREA ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 10 FEET BELOW NORMAL. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL COME OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND WE
ARE LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
THE UPSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK. RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE AS A
RESULT...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE SITUATION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED NONETHELESS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON









000
FXUS61 KBTV 211128
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
728 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEGUN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. EVENTUALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND DEVELOP AN EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE
FROM THE ATLANTIC LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE NET RESULT OF THIS
SCENARIO WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT...THEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 728 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ADD A LITTLE SNOW UP AT
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AS MOUNT MANSFIELD AND WHITEFACE REPORTING
TEMPERATURES AROUND 32. THIS SHOULD LAST FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. OTHERWISE. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST TO OUR WEST EARLY THIS MORNING
IS ENHANCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AND AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY...THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 353 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO START CUTTING OFF
TONIGHT AS IT REACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
FEATURE WILL ONLY REACH THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
AS A RESULT...WE ARE LOOKING AT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION...
THERMAL PROFILE INDICATES IT WILL ALL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS IS WHEN A DEEPER EASTERLY
FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC MOVES INTO THE REGION AND ENHANCES
PRECIPITATION. THE EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME DOWNSLOPING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO OCCUR...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. HOWEVER...THE
DURATION OF THE EASTERLY FETCH WILL NOT BE TOO LONG AS EVENTUALLY
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST WITH TIME ON THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE...AFTER A DISTINCT WEST TO EAST GRADIENT OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TONIGHT...LESS WEST MORE EAST...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND WESTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 150 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL...AND WITH AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 40S EACH DAY AND HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT LARGE UPPER LOW THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES ITS TRACK NORTHEAST
FROM CAPE COD 00Z FRI TO THE GULF OF MAINE AND CANADIAN MARITIMES
BY 12Z SAT. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF ANOTHER AND
UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. LATEST ECMWF DIGS THE
TROUGH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS OFFERING A CONTINUATION OF
OUR COLD AUTUMN PATTERN WITH THE 500MB LOW CLOSING OFF OVER MAINE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NOT GOING TO COMPLETELY BITE OFF ON THE
EURO YET...BUT WITH ITS RECENT GOOD PERFORMANCE IN THE PAST COUPLE
OF WEEKS IT`S HARD TO IGNORE. WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE
CONSENSUS BLEND AND OFFER TEMPS JUST A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO IN THE
40S AND 50S. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH WE MIGHT SEE SOME RELIEF FROM THE COLD AND WET
CONDITIONS TO START NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS ON THE WEEKEND SHIFTS EASTWARD ONTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MOVES IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH TEMPS
WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION BY MID-DAY...THOUGH NOT LOOKING AT ANY REAL RESTRICTIONS
IN VSBY PER UPSTREAM OBS. CIGS ARE ANOTHER STORY THOUGH.
KSLK/KRUT/KMPV WILL GENERALLY LOWER TO ONLY MVFR THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...THEN POSSIBLY DOWN TO IFR AFTER 00Z. JUST NW OF
KMSS CIGS ARE IFR ON NORTHEAST FLOW...AND THESE LOWER CEILINGS
SHOULD SHIFT INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY FROM 08-10Z AND REMAIN
THERE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FOR KPBG/KBTV...WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO
THE N-NE FEEL IFR CIGS NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL DRAIN DOWN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...LIKELY MID-MORNING FOR KPBG AND TOWARDS THE
EVENING FOR KBTV. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BY LIGHT FROM 5-10KTS AND
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION FROM SITE TO SITE. EXCEPTION WILL BE KMSS
WHERE NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A STEADY 10-15KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STARTING OUT LOW BEFORE THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LARGER RIVERS ACROSS THE
AREA ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 10 FEET BELOW NORMAL. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL COME OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND WE
ARE LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
THE UPSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK. RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE AS A
RESULT...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE SITUATION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED NONETHELESS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON









000
FXUS61 KBTV 211128
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
728 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEGUN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. EVENTUALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND DEVELOP AN EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE
FROM THE ATLANTIC LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE NET RESULT OF THIS
SCENARIO WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT...THEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 728 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ADD A LITTLE SNOW UP AT
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AS MOUNT MANSFIELD AND WHITEFACE REPORTING
TEMPERATURES AROUND 32. THIS SHOULD LAST FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. OTHERWISE. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST TO OUR WEST EARLY THIS MORNING
IS ENHANCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AND AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY...THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 353 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO START CUTTING OFF
TONIGHT AS IT REACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
FEATURE WILL ONLY REACH THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
AS A RESULT...WE ARE LOOKING AT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION...
THERMAL PROFILE INDICATES IT WILL ALL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS IS WHEN A DEEPER EASTERLY
FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC MOVES INTO THE REGION AND ENHANCES
PRECIPITATION. THE EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME DOWNSLOPING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO OCCUR...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. HOWEVER...THE
DURATION OF THE EASTERLY FETCH WILL NOT BE TOO LONG AS EVENTUALLY
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST WITH TIME ON THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE...AFTER A DISTINCT WEST TO EAST GRADIENT OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TONIGHT...LESS WEST MORE EAST...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND WESTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 150 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL...AND WITH AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 40S EACH DAY AND HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT LARGE UPPER LOW THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES ITS TRACK NORTHEAST
FROM CAPE COD 00Z FRI TO THE GULF OF MAINE AND CANADIAN MARITIMES
BY 12Z SAT. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF ANOTHER AND
UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. LATEST ECMWF DIGS THE
TROUGH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS OFFERING A CONTINUATION OF
OUR COLD AUTUMN PATTERN WITH THE 500MB LOW CLOSING OFF OVER MAINE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NOT GOING TO COMPLETELY BITE OFF ON THE
EURO YET...BUT WITH ITS RECENT GOOD PERFORMANCE IN THE PAST COUPLE
OF WEEKS IT`S HARD TO IGNORE. WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE
CONSENSUS BLEND AND OFFER TEMPS JUST A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO IN THE
40S AND 50S. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH WE MIGHT SEE SOME RELIEF FROM THE COLD AND WET
CONDITIONS TO START NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS ON THE WEEKEND SHIFTS EASTWARD ONTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MOVES IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH TEMPS
WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION BY MID-DAY...THOUGH NOT LOOKING AT ANY REAL RESTRICTIONS
IN VSBY PER UPSTREAM OBS. CIGS ARE ANOTHER STORY THOUGH.
KSLK/KRUT/KMPV WILL GENERALLY LOWER TO ONLY MVFR THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...THEN POSSIBLY DOWN TO IFR AFTER 00Z. JUST NW OF
KMSS CIGS ARE IFR ON NORTHEAST FLOW...AND THESE LOWER CEILINGS
SHOULD SHIFT INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY FROM 08-10Z AND REMAIN
THERE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FOR KPBG/KBTV...WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO
THE N-NE FEEL IFR CIGS NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL DRAIN DOWN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...LIKELY MID-MORNING FOR KPBG AND TOWARDS THE
EVENING FOR KBTV. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BY LIGHT FROM 5-10KTS AND
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION FROM SITE TO SITE. EXCEPTION WILL BE KMSS
WHERE NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A STEADY 10-15KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STARTING OUT LOW BEFORE THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LARGER RIVERS ACROSS THE
AREA ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 10 FEET BELOW NORMAL. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL COME OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND WE
ARE LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
THE UPSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK. RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE AS A
RESULT...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE SITUATION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED NONETHELESS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON









000
FXUS61 KALY 211050
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
650 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXCEPT FOR SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS IN ORDER TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE IN THE PROCESS DEVELOPING INTO A
CLOSED UPPER LOW TODAY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
FOR TODAY THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. RADAR PICS AS OF 430 AM SHOW ENOUGH PCPN
COVERAGE TO WARRANT INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY IN ALL AREAS
TODAY...AND TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
A SURFACE LOW ALSO DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...THERE WILL BE A DROP OFF IN PCPN ACTIVITY
TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA...THE FORECAST
AREA WILL GET INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR BAND OF PCPN AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE SURGES WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. AS A
RESULT...PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN DURING WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL BY
LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST
CATEGORICAL POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON
THURSDAY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF.

LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW STILL CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD...WITH A SPRAWLING
CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE
LIKELY POPS ARE MENTIONED. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY START TO PULL EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME SO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE COOL AND DAMP...WITH OVERCAST SKIES RESULTING IN NOT MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR WARMING.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS
TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST...AS THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DIGS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS IS THE MOST OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF KEEPING
THE BRUNT OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE CMC TO AN EXTENT...DEPICTS THE TROUGH
DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME.

SO BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE...OR COOLER TEMPS AND
MORE CLOUDS. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHICH WAY THE MODELS TREND AS THE
WEEKEND NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS TODAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MENTION PREVAILING SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME AS
BATCHES OF SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH.

FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY...WITH CIGS ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASING. BY THIS EVENING THERE
WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5
KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EVEN
THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 211050
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
650 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXCEPT FOR SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS IN ORDER TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE IN THE PROCESS DEVELOPING INTO A
CLOSED UPPER LOW TODAY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
FOR TODAY THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. RADAR PICS AS OF 430 AM SHOW ENOUGH PCPN
COVERAGE TO WARRANT INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY IN ALL AREAS
TODAY...AND TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
A SURFACE LOW ALSO DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...THERE WILL BE A DROP OFF IN PCPN ACTIVITY
TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA...THE FORECAST
AREA WILL GET INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR BAND OF PCPN AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE SURGES WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. AS A
RESULT...PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN DURING WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL BY
LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST
CATEGORICAL POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON
THURSDAY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF.

LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW STILL CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD...WITH A SPRAWLING
CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE
LIKELY POPS ARE MENTIONED. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY START TO PULL EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME SO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE COOL AND DAMP...WITH OVERCAST SKIES RESULTING IN NOT MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR WARMING.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS
TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST...AS THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DIGS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS IS THE MOST OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF KEEPING
THE BRUNT OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE CMC TO AN EXTENT...DEPICTS THE TROUGH
DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME.

SO BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE...OR COOLER TEMPS AND
MORE CLOUDS. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHICH WAY THE MODELS TREND AS THE
WEEKEND NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS TODAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MENTION PREVAILING SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME AS
BATCHES OF SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH.

FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY...WITH CIGS ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASING. BY THIS EVENING THERE
WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5
KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EVEN
THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 211050
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
650 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXCEPT FOR SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS IN ORDER TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE IN THE PROCESS DEVELOPING INTO A
CLOSED UPPER LOW TODAY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
FOR TODAY THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. RADAR PICS AS OF 430 AM SHOW ENOUGH PCPN
COVERAGE TO WARRANT INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY IN ALL AREAS
TODAY...AND TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
A SURFACE LOW ALSO DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...THERE WILL BE A DROP OFF IN PCPN ACTIVITY
TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA...THE FORECAST
AREA WILL GET INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR BAND OF PCPN AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE SURGES WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. AS A
RESULT...PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN DURING WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL BY
LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST
CATEGORICAL POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON
THURSDAY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF.

LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW STILL CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD...WITH A SPRAWLING
CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE
LIKELY POPS ARE MENTIONED. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY START TO PULL EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME SO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE COOL AND DAMP...WITH OVERCAST SKIES RESULTING IN NOT MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR WARMING.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS
TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST...AS THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DIGS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS IS THE MOST OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF KEEPING
THE BRUNT OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE CMC TO AN EXTENT...DEPICTS THE TROUGH
DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME.

SO BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE...OR COOLER TEMPS AND
MORE CLOUDS. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHICH WAY THE MODELS TREND AS THE
WEEKEND NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS TODAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MENTION PREVAILING SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME AS
BATCHES OF SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH.

FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY...WITH CIGS ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASING. BY THIS EVENING THERE
WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5
KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EVEN
THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 211050
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
650 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXCEPT FOR SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS IN ORDER TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE IN THE PROCESS DEVELOPING INTO A
CLOSED UPPER LOW TODAY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
FOR TODAY THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. RADAR PICS AS OF 430 AM SHOW ENOUGH PCPN
COVERAGE TO WARRANT INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY IN ALL AREAS
TODAY...AND TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
A SURFACE LOW ALSO DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...THERE WILL BE A DROP OFF IN PCPN ACTIVITY
TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA...THE FORECAST
AREA WILL GET INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR BAND OF PCPN AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE SURGES WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. AS A
RESULT...PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN DURING WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL BY
LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST
CATEGORICAL POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON
THURSDAY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF.

LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW STILL CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD...WITH A SPRAWLING
CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE
LIKELY POPS ARE MENTIONED. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY START TO PULL EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME SO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE COOL AND DAMP...WITH OVERCAST SKIES RESULTING IN NOT MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR WARMING.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS
TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST...AS THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DIGS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS IS THE MOST OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF KEEPING
THE BRUNT OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE CMC TO AN EXTENT...DEPICTS THE TROUGH
DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME.

SO BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE...OR COOLER TEMPS AND
MORE CLOUDS. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHICH WAY THE MODELS TREND AS THE
WEEKEND NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS TODAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MENTION PREVAILING SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME AS
BATCHES OF SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH.

FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY...WITH CIGS ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASING. BY THIS EVENING THERE
WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5
KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EVEN
THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 211050
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
650 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXCEPT FOR SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS IN ORDER TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE IN THE PROCESS DEVELOPING INTO A
CLOSED UPPER LOW TODAY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
FOR TODAY THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. RADAR PICS AS OF 430 AM SHOW ENOUGH PCPN
COVERAGE TO WARRANT INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY IN ALL AREAS
TODAY...AND TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
A SURFACE LOW ALSO DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...THERE WILL BE A DROP OFF IN PCPN ACTIVITY
TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA...THE FORECAST
AREA WILL GET INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR BAND OF PCPN AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE SURGES WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. AS A
RESULT...PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN DURING WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL BY
LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST
CATEGORICAL POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON
THURSDAY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF.

LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW STILL CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD...WITH A SPRAWLING
CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE
LIKELY POPS ARE MENTIONED. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY START TO PULL EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME SO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE COOL AND DAMP...WITH OVERCAST SKIES RESULTING IN NOT MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR WARMING.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS
TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST...AS THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DIGS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS IS THE MOST OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF KEEPING
THE BRUNT OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE CMC TO AN EXTENT...DEPICTS THE TROUGH
DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME.

SO BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE...OR COOLER TEMPS AND
MORE CLOUDS. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHICH WAY THE MODELS TREND AS THE
WEEKEND NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS TODAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MENTION PREVAILING SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME AS
BATCHES OF SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH.

FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY...WITH CIGS ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASING. BY THIS EVENING THERE
WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5
KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EVEN
THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 211050
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
650 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXCEPT FOR SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS IN ORDER TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE IN THE PROCESS DEVELOPING INTO A
CLOSED UPPER LOW TODAY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
FOR TODAY THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. RADAR PICS AS OF 430 AM SHOW ENOUGH PCPN
COVERAGE TO WARRANT INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY IN ALL AREAS
TODAY...AND TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
A SURFACE LOW ALSO DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...THERE WILL BE A DROP OFF IN PCPN ACTIVITY
TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA...THE FORECAST
AREA WILL GET INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR BAND OF PCPN AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE SURGES WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. AS A
RESULT...PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN DURING WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL BY
LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST
CATEGORICAL POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON
THURSDAY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF.

LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW STILL CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD...WITH A SPRAWLING
CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE
LIKELY POPS ARE MENTIONED. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY START TO PULL EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME SO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE COOL AND DAMP...WITH OVERCAST SKIES RESULTING IN NOT MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR WARMING.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS
TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST...AS THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DIGS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS IS THE MOST OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF KEEPING
THE BRUNT OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE CMC TO AN EXTENT...DEPICTS THE TROUGH
DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME.

SO BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE...OR COOLER TEMPS AND
MORE CLOUDS. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHICH WAY THE MODELS TREND AS THE
WEEKEND NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS TODAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MENTION PREVAILING SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME AS
BATCHES OF SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH.

FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY...WITH CIGS ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASING. BY THIS EVENING THERE
WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5
KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EVEN
THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 211016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
617 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TODAY/...
EXCEPT FOR SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS IN ORDER TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE IN THE PROCESS DEVELOPING INTO A
CLOSED UPPER LOW TODAY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
FOR TODAY THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. RADAR PICS AS OF 430 AM SHOW ENOUGH PCPN
COVERAGE TO WARRANT INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY IN ALL AREAS
TODAY...AND TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
A SURFACE LOW ALSO DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...THERE WILL BE A DROP OFF IN PCPN ACTIVITY
TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA...THE FORECAST
AREA WILL GET INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR BAND OF PCPN AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE SURGES WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. AS A
RESULT...PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN DURING WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL BY
LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST
CATEGORICAL POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON
THURSDAY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF.

LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW STILL CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD...WITH A SPRAWLING
CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE
LIKELY POPS ARE MENTIONED. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY START TO PULL EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME SO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE COOL AND DAMP...WITH OVERCAST SKIES RESULTING IN NOT MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR WARMING.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS
TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST...AS THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DIGS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS IS THE MOST OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF KEEPING
THE BRUNT OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE CMC TO AN EXTENT...DEPICTS THE TROUGH
DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME.

SO BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE...OR COOLER TEMPS AND
MORE CLOUDS. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHICH WAY THE MODELS TREND AS THE
WEEKEND NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THIS MORNING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MENTION PREVAILING SHOWERS
DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE
ENTIRE TIME AS BATCHES OF SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH.

FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR RANGE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH CIGS ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASING. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATION SITE KPSF. BY THIS
EVENING THERE WILL BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
AT THE KALB/KPOU/KGFL TERMINALS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5
KT BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EVEN
THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM












000
FXUS61 KALY 211016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
617 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TODAY/...
EXCEPT FOR SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS IN ORDER TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE IN THE PROCESS DEVELOPING INTO A
CLOSED UPPER LOW TODAY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
FOR TODAY THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. RADAR PICS AS OF 430 AM SHOW ENOUGH PCPN
COVERAGE TO WARRANT INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY IN ALL AREAS
TODAY...AND TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
A SURFACE LOW ALSO DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...THERE WILL BE A DROP OFF IN PCPN ACTIVITY
TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA...THE FORECAST
AREA WILL GET INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR BAND OF PCPN AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE SURGES WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. AS A
RESULT...PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN DURING WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL BY
LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST
CATEGORICAL POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON
THURSDAY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF.

LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW STILL CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD...WITH A SPRAWLING
CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE
LIKELY POPS ARE MENTIONED. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY START TO PULL EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME SO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE COOL AND DAMP...WITH OVERCAST SKIES RESULTING IN NOT MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR WARMING.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS
TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST...AS THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DIGS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS IS THE MOST OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF KEEPING
THE BRUNT OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE CMC TO AN EXTENT...DEPICTS THE TROUGH
DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME.

SO BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE...OR COOLER TEMPS AND
MORE CLOUDS. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHICH WAY THE MODELS TREND AS THE
WEEKEND NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THIS MORNING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MENTION PREVAILING SHOWERS
DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE
ENTIRE TIME AS BATCHES OF SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH.

FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR RANGE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH CIGS ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASING. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATION SITE KPSF. BY THIS
EVENING THERE WILL BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
AT THE KALB/KPOU/KGFL TERMINALS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5
KT BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EVEN
THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM












000
FXUS61 KALY 211016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
617 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TODAY/...
EXCEPT FOR SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS IN ORDER TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE IN THE PROCESS DEVELOPING INTO A
CLOSED UPPER LOW TODAY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
FOR TODAY THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. RADAR PICS AS OF 430 AM SHOW ENOUGH PCPN
COVERAGE TO WARRANT INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY IN ALL AREAS
TODAY...AND TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
A SURFACE LOW ALSO DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...THERE WILL BE A DROP OFF IN PCPN ACTIVITY
TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA...THE FORECAST
AREA WILL GET INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR BAND OF PCPN AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE SURGES WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. AS A
RESULT...PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN DURING WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL BY
LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST
CATEGORICAL POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON
THURSDAY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF.

LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW STILL CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD...WITH A SPRAWLING
CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE
LIKELY POPS ARE MENTIONED. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY START TO PULL EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME SO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE COOL AND DAMP...WITH OVERCAST SKIES RESULTING IN NOT MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR WARMING.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS
TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST...AS THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DIGS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS IS THE MOST OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF KEEPING
THE BRUNT OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE CMC TO AN EXTENT...DEPICTS THE TROUGH
DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME.

SO BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE...OR COOLER TEMPS AND
MORE CLOUDS. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHICH WAY THE MODELS TREND AS THE
WEEKEND NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THIS MORNING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MENTION PREVAILING SHOWERS
DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE
ENTIRE TIME AS BATCHES OF SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH.

FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR RANGE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH CIGS ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASING. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATION SITE KPSF. BY THIS
EVENING THERE WILL BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
AT THE KALB/KPOU/KGFL TERMINALS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5
KT BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EVEN
THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM












000
FXUS61 KALY 211016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
617 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TODAY/...
EXCEPT FOR SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS IN ORDER TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE IN THE PROCESS DEVELOPING INTO A
CLOSED UPPER LOW TODAY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
FOR TODAY THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. RADAR PICS AS OF 430 AM SHOW ENOUGH PCPN
COVERAGE TO WARRANT INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY IN ALL AREAS
TODAY...AND TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
A SURFACE LOW ALSO DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...THERE WILL BE A DROP OFF IN PCPN ACTIVITY
TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA...THE FORECAST
AREA WILL GET INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR BAND OF PCPN AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE SURGES WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. AS A
RESULT...PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN DURING WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL BY
LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST
CATEGORICAL POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON
THURSDAY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF.

LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW STILL CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD...WITH A SPRAWLING
CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE
LIKELY POPS ARE MENTIONED. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY START TO PULL EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME SO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE COOL AND DAMP...WITH OVERCAST SKIES RESULTING IN NOT MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR WARMING.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS
TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST...AS THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DIGS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS IS THE MOST OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF KEEPING
THE BRUNT OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE CMC TO AN EXTENT...DEPICTS THE TROUGH
DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME.

SO BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE...OR COOLER TEMPS AND
MORE CLOUDS. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHICH WAY THE MODELS TREND AS THE
WEEKEND NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THIS MORNING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MENTION PREVAILING SHOWERS
DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE
ENTIRE TIME AS BATCHES OF SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH.

FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR RANGE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH CIGS ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASING. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATION SITE KPSF. BY THIS
EVENING THERE WILL BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
AT THE KALB/KPOU/KGFL TERMINALS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5
KT BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EVEN
THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM












000
FXUS61 KALY 211016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
617 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TODAY/...
EXCEPT FOR SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS IN ORDER TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE IN THE PROCESS DEVELOPING INTO A
CLOSED UPPER LOW TODAY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
FOR TODAY THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. RADAR PICS AS OF 430 AM SHOW ENOUGH PCPN
COVERAGE TO WARRANT INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY IN ALL AREAS
TODAY...AND TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
A SURFACE LOW ALSO DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...THERE WILL BE A DROP OFF IN PCPN ACTIVITY
TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA...THE FORECAST
AREA WILL GET INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR BAND OF PCPN AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE SURGES WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. AS A
RESULT...PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN DURING WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL BY
LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST
CATEGORICAL POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON
THURSDAY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF.

LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW STILL CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD...WITH A SPRAWLING
CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE
LIKELY POPS ARE MENTIONED. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY START TO PULL EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME SO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE COOL AND DAMP...WITH OVERCAST SKIES RESULTING IN NOT MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR WARMING.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS
TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST...AS THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DIGS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS IS THE MOST OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF KEEPING
THE BRUNT OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE CMC TO AN EXTENT...DEPICTS THE TROUGH
DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME.

SO BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE...OR COOLER TEMPS AND
MORE CLOUDS. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHICH WAY THE MODELS TREND AS THE
WEEKEND NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THIS MORNING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MENTION PREVAILING SHOWERS
DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE
ENTIRE TIME AS BATCHES OF SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH.

FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR RANGE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH CIGS ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASING. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATION SITE KPSF. BY THIS
EVENING THERE WILL BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
AT THE KALB/KPOU/KGFL TERMINALS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5
KT BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EVEN
THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM












000
FXUS61 KALY 211016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
617 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TODAY/...
EXCEPT FOR SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS IN ORDER TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE IN THE PROCESS DEVELOPING INTO A
CLOSED UPPER LOW TODAY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
FOR TODAY THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. RADAR PICS AS OF 430 AM SHOW ENOUGH PCPN
COVERAGE TO WARRANT INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY IN ALL AREAS
TODAY...AND TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
A SURFACE LOW ALSO DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...THERE WILL BE A DROP OFF IN PCPN ACTIVITY
TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA...THE FORECAST
AREA WILL GET INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR BAND OF PCPN AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE SURGES WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. AS A
RESULT...PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN DURING WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL BY
LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST
CATEGORICAL POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON
THURSDAY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF.

LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW STILL CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD...WITH A SPRAWLING
CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE
LIKELY POPS ARE MENTIONED. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY START TO PULL EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME SO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE COOL AND DAMP...WITH OVERCAST SKIES RESULTING IN NOT MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR WARMING.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS
TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST...AS THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DIGS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS IS THE MOST OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF KEEPING
THE BRUNT OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE CMC TO AN EXTENT...DEPICTS THE TROUGH
DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME.

SO BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE...OR COOLER TEMPS AND
MORE CLOUDS. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHICH WAY THE MODELS TREND AS THE
WEEKEND NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THIS MORNING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MENTION PREVAILING SHOWERS
DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE
ENTIRE TIME AS BATCHES OF SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH.

FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR RANGE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH CIGS ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASING. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATION SITE KPSF. BY THIS
EVENING THERE WILL BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
AT THE KALB/KPOU/KGFL TERMINALS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5
KT BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EVEN
THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM












000
FXUS61 KALY 211016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
617 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TODAY/...
EXCEPT FOR SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS IN ORDER TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE IN THE PROCESS DEVELOPING INTO A
CLOSED UPPER LOW TODAY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
FOR TODAY THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. RADAR PICS AS OF 430 AM SHOW ENOUGH PCPN
COVERAGE TO WARRANT INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY IN ALL AREAS
TODAY...AND TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
A SURFACE LOW ALSO DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...THERE WILL BE A DROP OFF IN PCPN ACTIVITY
TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA...THE FORECAST
AREA WILL GET INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR BAND OF PCPN AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE SURGES WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. AS A
RESULT...PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN DURING WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL BY
LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST
CATEGORICAL POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON
THURSDAY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF.

LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW STILL CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD...WITH A SPRAWLING
CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE
LIKELY POPS ARE MENTIONED. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY START TO PULL EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME SO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE COOL AND DAMP...WITH OVERCAST SKIES RESULTING IN NOT MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR WARMING.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS
TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST...AS THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DIGS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS IS THE MOST OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF KEEPING
THE BRUNT OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE CMC TO AN EXTENT...DEPICTS THE TROUGH
DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME.

SO BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE...OR COOLER TEMPS AND
MORE CLOUDS. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHICH WAY THE MODELS TREND AS THE
WEEKEND NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THIS MORNING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MENTION PREVAILING SHOWERS
DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE
ENTIRE TIME AS BATCHES OF SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH.

FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR RANGE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH CIGS ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASING. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATION SITE KPSF. BY THIS
EVENING THERE WILL BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
AT THE KALB/KPOU/KGFL TERMINALS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5
KT BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EVEN
THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM












000
FXUS61 KALY 211016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
617 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TODAY/...
EXCEPT FOR SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS IN ORDER TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE IN THE PROCESS DEVELOPING INTO A
CLOSED UPPER LOW TODAY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
FOR TODAY THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. RADAR PICS AS OF 430 AM SHOW ENOUGH PCPN
COVERAGE TO WARRANT INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY IN ALL AREAS
TODAY...AND TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
A SURFACE LOW ALSO DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...THERE WILL BE A DROP OFF IN PCPN ACTIVITY
TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA...THE FORECAST
AREA WILL GET INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR BAND OF PCPN AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE SURGES WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. AS A
RESULT...PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN DURING WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL BY
LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST
CATEGORICAL POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON
THURSDAY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF.

LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW STILL CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD...WITH A SPRAWLING
CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE
LIKELY POPS ARE MENTIONED. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY START TO PULL EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME SO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE COOL AND DAMP...WITH OVERCAST SKIES RESULTING IN NOT MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR WARMING.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS
TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST...AS THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DIGS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS IS THE MOST OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF KEEPING
THE BRUNT OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE CMC TO AN EXTENT...DEPICTS THE TROUGH
DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME.

SO BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE...OR COOLER TEMPS AND
MORE CLOUDS. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHICH WAY THE MODELS TREND AS THE
WEEKEND NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THIS MORNING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MENTION PREVAILING SHOWERS
DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE
ENTIRE TIME AS BATCHES OF SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH.

FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR RANGE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH CIGS ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASING. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATION SITE KPSF. BY THIS
EVENING THERE WILL BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
AT THE KALB/KPOU/KGFL TERMINALS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5
KT BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EVEN
THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM












000
FXUS61 KALY 210851
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
451 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TODAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE IN THE PROCESS DEVELOPING INTO A
CLOSED UPPER LOW TODAY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
FOR TODAY THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. RADAR PICS AS OF 430 AM SHOW ENOUGH PCPN
COVERAGE TO WARRANT INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY IN ALL AREAS
TODAY...AND TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
A SURFACE LOW ALSO DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...THERE WILL BE A DROP OFF IN PCPN ACTIVITY
TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA...THE FORECAST
AREA WILL GET INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR BAND OF PCPN AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE SURGES WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. AS A
RESULT...PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN DURING WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL BY
LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST
CATEGORICAL POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON
THURSDAY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF.

LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW STILL CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD...WITH A SPRAWLING
CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE
LIKELY POPS ARE MENTIONED. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY START TO PULL EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME SO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE COOL AND DAMP...WITH OVERCAST SKIES RESULTING IN NOT MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR WARMING.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS
TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST...AS THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DIGS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS IS THE MOST OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF KEEPING
THE BRUNT OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE CMC TO AN EXTENT...DEPICTS THE TROUGH
DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME.

SO BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE...OR COOLER TEMPS AND
MORE CLOUDS. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHICH WAY THE MODELS TREND AS THE
WEEKEND NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THIS MORNING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MENTION PREVAILING SHOWERS
DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE
ENTIRE TIME AS BATCHES OF SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH.

FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR RANGE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH CIGS ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASING. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATION SITE KPSF. BY THIS
EVENING THERE WILL BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
AT THE KALB/KPOU/KGFL TERMINALS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5
KT BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EVEN
THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM









000
FXUS61 KALY 210851
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
451 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TODAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE IN THE PROCESS DEVELOPING INTO A
CLOSED UPPER LOW TODAY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
FOR TODAY THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. RADAR PICS AS OF 430 AM SHOW ENOUGH PCPN
COVERAGE TO WARRANT INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY IN ALL AREAS
TODAY...AND TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
A SURFACE LOW ALSO DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...THERE WILL BE A DROP OFF IN PCPN ACTIVITY
TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA...THE FORECAST
AREA WILL GET INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR BAND OF PCPN AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE SURGES WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. AS A
RESULT...PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN DURING WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL BY
LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST
CATEGORICAL POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON
THURSDAY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF.

LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW STILL CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD...WITH A SPRAWLING
CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE
LIKELY POPS ARE MENTIONED. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY START TO PULL EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME SO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE COOL AND DAMP...WITH OVERCAST SKIES RESULTING IN NOT MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR WARMING.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS
TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST...AS THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DIGS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS IS THE MOST OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF KEEPING
THE BRUNT OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE CMC TO AN EXTENT...DEPICTS THE TROUGH
DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME.

SO BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE...OR COOLER TEMPS AND
MORE CLOUDS. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHICH WAY THE MODELS TREND AS THE
WEEKEND NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THIS MORNING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MENTION PREVAILING SHOWERS
DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE
ENTIRE TIME AS BATCHES OF SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH.

FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR RANGE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH CIGS ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASING. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATION SITE KPSF. BY THIS
EVENING THERE WILL BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
AT THE KALB/KPOU/KGFL TERMINALS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5
KT BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EVEN
THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM










000
FXUS61 KBTV 210753
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEGUN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. EVENTUALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND DEVELOP AN EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE
FROM THE ATLANTIC LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE NET RESULT OF THIS
SCENARIO WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT...THEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 353 AM EDT TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
TO OUR WEST EARLY THIS MORNING IS ENHANCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AND AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY...
THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER. THIS WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 353 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO START CUTTING OFF
TONIGHT AS IT REACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
FEATURE WILL ONLY REACH THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
AS A RESULT...WE ARE LOOKING AT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION...
THERMAL PROFILE INDICATES IT WILL ALL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS IS WHEN A DEEPER EASTERLY
FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC MOVES INTO THE REGION AND ENHANCES
PRECIPITATION. THE EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME DOWNSLOPING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO OCCUR...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. HOWEVER...THE
DURATION OF THE EASTERLY FETCH WILL NOT BE TOO LONG AS EVENTUALLY
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST WITH TIME ON THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE...AFTER A DISTINCT WEST TO EAST GRADIENT OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TONIGHT...LESS WEST MORE EAST...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND WESTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 150 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL...AND WITH AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 40S EACH DAY AND HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT LARGE UPPER LOW THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES ITS TRACK NORTHEAST
FROM CAPE COD 00Z FRI TO THE GULF OF MAINE AND CANADIAN MARITIMES
BY 12Z SAT. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF ANOTHER AND
UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. LATEST ECMWF DIGS THE
TROUGH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS OFFERING A CONTINUATION OF
OUR COLD AUTUMN PATTERN WITH THE 500MB LOW CLOSING OFF OVER MAINE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NOT GOING TO COMPLETELY BITE OFF ON THE
EURO YET...BUT WITH ITS RECENT GOOD PERFORMANCE IN THE PAST COUPLE
OF WEEKS IT`S HARD TO IGNORE. WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE
CONSENSUS BLEND AND OFFER TEMPS JUST A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO IN THE
40S AND 50S. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH WE MIGHT SEE SOME RELIEF FROM THE COLD AND WET
CONDITIONS TO START NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS ON THE WEEKEND SHIFTS EASTWARD ONTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MOVES IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH TEMPS
WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION BY MID-DAY...THOUGH NOT LOOKING AT ANY REAL RESTRICTIONS
IN VSBY PER UPSTREAM OBS. CIGS ARE ANOTHER STORY THOUGH.
KSLK/KRUT/KMPV WILL GENERALLY LOWER TO ONLY MVFR THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...THEN POSSIBLY DOWN TO IFR AFTER 00Z. JUST NW OF
KMSS CIGS ARE IFR ON NORTHEAST FLOW...AND THESE LOWER CEILINGS
SHOULD SHIFT INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY FROM 08-10Z AND REMAIN
THERE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FOR KPBG/KBTV...WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO
THE N-NE FEEL IFR CIGS NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL DRAIN DOWN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...LIKELY MID-MORNING FOR KPBG AND TOWARDS THE
EVENING FOR KBTV. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BY LIGHT FROM 5-10KTS AND
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION FROM SITE TO SITE. EXCEPTION WILL BE KMSS
WHERE NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A STEADY 10-15KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STARTING OUT LOW BEFORE THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LARGER RIVERS ACROSS THE
AREA ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 10 FEET BELOW NORMAL. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL COME OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND WE
ARE LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
THE UPSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK. RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE AS A
RESULT...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE SITUATION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED NONETHELESS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON






000
FXUS61 KBTV 210753
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEGUN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. EVENTUALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND DEVELOP AN EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE
FROM THE ATLANTIC LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE NET RESULT OF THIS
SCENARIO WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT...THEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 353 AM EDT TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
TO OUR WEST EARLY THIS MORNING IS ENHANCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AND AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY...
THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER. THIS WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 353 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO START CUTTING OFF
TONIGHT AS IT REACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
FEATURE WILL ONLY REACH THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
AS A RESULT...WE ARE LOOKING AT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION...
THERMAL PROFILE INDICATES IT WILL ALL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS IS WHEN A DEEPER EASTERLY
FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC MOVES INTO THE REGION AND ENHANCES
PRECIPITATION. THE EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME DOWNSLOPING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO OCCUR...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. HOWEVER...THE
DURATION OF THE EASTERLY FETCH WILL NOT BE TOO LONG AS EVENTUALLY
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST WITH TIME ON THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE...AFTER A DISTINCT WEST TO EAST GRADIENT OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TONIGHT...LESS WEST MORE EAST...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND WESTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 150 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL...AND WITH AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 40S EACH DAY AND HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT LARGE UPPER LOW THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES ITS TRACK NORTHEAST
FROM CAPE COD 00Z FRI TO THE GULF OF MAINE AND CANADIAN MARITIMES
BY 12Z SAT. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF ANOTHER AND
UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. LATEST ECMWF DIGS THE
TROUGH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS OFFERING A CONTINUATION OF
OUR COLD AUTUMN PATTERN WITH THE 500MB LOW CLOSING OFF OVER MAINE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NOT GOING TO COMPLETELY BITE OFF ON THE
EURO YET...BUT WITH ITS RECENT GOOD PERFORMANCE IN THE PAST COUPLE
OF WEEKS IT`S HARD TO IGNORE. WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE
CONSENSUS BLEND AND OFFER TEMPS JUST A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO IN THE
40S AND 50S. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH WE MIGHT SEE SOME RELIEF FROM THE COLD AND WET
CONDITIONS TO START NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS ON THE WEEKEND SHIFTS EASTWARD ONTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MOVES IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH TEMPS
WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION BY MID-DAY...THOUGH NOT LOOKING AT ANY REAL RESTRICTIONS
IN VSBY PER UPSTREAM OBS. CIGS ARE ANOTHER STORY THOUGH.
KSLK/KRUT/KMPV WILL GENERALLY LOWER TO ONLY MVFR THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...THEN POSSIBLY DOWN TO IFR AFTER 00Z. JUST NW OF
KMSS CIGS ARE IFR ON NORTHEAST FLOW...AND THESE LOWER CEILINGS
SHOULD SHIFT INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY FROM 08-10Z AND REMAIN
THERE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FOR KPBG/KBTV...WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO
THE N-NE FEEL IFR CIGS NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL DRAIN DOWN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...LIKELY MID-MORNING FOR KPBG AND TOWARDS THE
EVENING FOR KBTV. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BY LIGHT FROM 5-10KTS AND
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION FROM SITE TO SITE. EXCEPTION WILL BE KMSS
WHERE NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A STEADY 10-15KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STARTING OUT LOW BEFORE THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LARGER RIVERS ACROSS THE
AREA ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 10 FEET BELOW NORMAL. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL COME OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND WE
ARE LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
THE UPSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK. RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE AS A
RESULT...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE SITUATION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED NONETHELESS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON







000
FXUS61 KBTV 210741
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
341 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT TO
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY LATE TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT, THE REST OF THE
WEEK WILL BE RAINY AND COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 116 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
ONLY ONE MINOR TWEAK. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
IS CAUSING THE RAIN SHOWERS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK TO
MOVE MORE NORTHEAST. HAVE ADJUSTED OUR PRECIPITATION GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANGE AND INCREASED THE AREAL COVERAGE A BIT OF
THE SHOWERS MOVING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT MONDAY...THE ACTION REALLY GETS CRANKING FOR
LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROF OFF TO THE WEST WILL
DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND ULTIMATELY CUT-OFF DOWN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
SET UP SHOP JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AND AS WE KNOW, CUT-OFFS
ARE "CUT-OFF" FROM THE MAIN FLOW, SO THAT MEANS THEY DON`T MOVE
VERY QUICKLY.

12Z GUIDANCE STILL ALL SHOWING THIS SAME SCENARIO, SO CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT WE`VE GOT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET CONDITIONS.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED AND BRING IN COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE -- RESULTING IN A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY (AND BEYOND).

TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS UP. THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.
AS THE TROUGH EVOLVES INTO A CUT-OFF LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND, THINGS WILL GET MORE
INTERESTING.

EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND STRENGTHEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ULTIMATELY WE`LL BE SEEING 850MB WINDS OUT OF
THE EAST AROUND 30-40KTS AND THIS WILL BRING IN ALL THE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE, RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT RAIN, LIKELY OCCASIONAL
MODERATE TO HEAVY ON WEDNESDAY. IT`S JUST GOING TO BE DOWNRIGHT
MISERABLE (CHILLY AND WET).

TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
LOCATIONS FOR HEAVIEST AMOUNTS. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW, STILL FEEL
THE FEELINGS BY PREVIOUS FORECASTERS THAT WE SHOULD SEE AN
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
ADIRONDACKS MAKES SENSE. THERE SHOULD BE SHADOWING BY THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS TO KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST, THE VERY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL START TO TURN NORTHEAST
AND EVENTUALLY NORTH. A NORTHERLY FLOW COMING DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY IS A CONVERGENT FLOW, AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE
THE RAINFALL HERE IN THE VALLEY LATE ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN MEAN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
CHANGING MUCH FROM DAY TO NIGHT. GUIDANCE BLENDS STILL SEEM TO BE
A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT, SO TRIED MY BEST
TO MAKE THE DIURNAL DIFFERENCE SMALLER. EVEN SO, I THINK MY FINAL
NUMBERS ARE STILL A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT.
BOTTOM LINE, 40S AT NIGHT AND SOME 50S DURING THE DAY (IF WE ARE
LUCKY).

OH YEAH, FOR THE WINTER WEATHER FANS OUT THERE -- SORRY, IT`S
LOOKING JUST WET, NOT WHITE. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE UP AROUND &
OVER 6,000FT. BESIDES, EVEN IF IT DID SNOW, IT`S STILL EARLY IN
THE SEASON AND WOULD LIKELY NOT HANG AROUND THAT LONG -- SO IT
WOULD JUST BE WASTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT LARGE UPPER LOW THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES ITS TRACK NORTHEAST
FROM CAPE COD 00Z FRI TO THE GULF OF MAINE AND CANADIAN MARITIMES
BY 12Z SAT. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF ANOTHER AND
UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. LATEST ECMWF DIGS THE
TROUGH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS OFFERING A CONTINUATION OF
OUR COLD AUTUMN PATTERN WITH THE 500MB LOW CLOSING OFF OVER MAINE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NOT GOING TO COMPLETELY BITE OFF ON THE
EURO YET...BUT WITH ITS RECENT GOOD PERFORMANCE IN THE PAST COUPLE
OF WEEKS IT`S HARD TO IGNORE. WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE
CONSENSUS BLEND AND OFFER TEMPS JUST A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO IN THE
40S AND 50S. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH WE MIGHT SEE SOME RELIEF FROM THE COLD AND WET
CONDITIONS TO START NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS ON THE WEEKEND SHIFTS EASTWARD ONTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MOVES IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH TEMPS
WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION BY MID-DAY...THOUGH NOT LOOKING AT ANY REAL RESTRICTIONS
IN VSBY PER UPSTREAM OBS. CIGS ARE ANOTHER STORY THOUGH.
KSLK/KRUT/KMPV WILL GENERALLY LOWER TO ONLY MVFR THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...THEN POSSIBLY DOWN TO IFR AFTER 00Z. JUST NW OF
KMSS CIGS ARE IFR ON NORTHEAST FLOW...AND THESE LOWER CEILINGS
SHOULD SHIFT INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY FROM 08-10Z AND REMAIN
THERE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FOR KPBG/KBTV...WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO
THE N-NE FEEL IFR CIGS NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL DRAIN DOWN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...LIKELY MID-MORNING FOR KPBG AND TOWARDS THE
EVENING FOR KBTV. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BY LIGHT FROM 5-10KTS AND
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION FROM SITE TO SITE. EXCEPTION WILL BE KMSS
WHERE NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A STEADY 10-15KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 210741
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
341 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT TO
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY LATE TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT, THE REST OF THE
WEEK WILL BE RAINY AND COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 116 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
ONLY ONE MINOR TWEAK. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
IS CAUSING THE RAIN SHOWERS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK TO
MOVE MORE NORTHEAST. HAVE ADJUSTED OUR PRECIPITATION GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANGE AND INCREASED THE AREAL COVERAGE A BIT OF
THE SHOWERS MOVING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT MONDAY...THE ACTION REALLY GETS CRANKING FOR
LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROF OFF TO THE WEST WILL
DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND ULTIMATELY CUT-OFF DOWN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
SET UP SHOP JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AND AS WE KNOW, CUT-OFFS
ARE "CUT-OFF" FROM THE MAIN FLOW, SO THAT MEANS THEY DON`T MOVE
VERY QUICKLY.

12Z GUIDANCE STILL ALL SHOWING THIS SAME SCENARIO, SO CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT WE`VE GOT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET CONDITIONS.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED AND BRING IN COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE -- RESULTING IN A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY (AND BEYOND).

TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS UP. THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.
AS THE TROUGH EVOLVES INTO A CUT-OFF LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND, THINGS WILL GET MORE
INTERESTING.

EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND STRENGTHEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ULTIMATELY WE`LL BE SEEING 850MB WINDS OUT OF
THE EAST AROUND 30-40KTS AND THIS WILL BRING IN ALL THE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE, RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT RAIN, LIKELY OCCASIONAL
MODERATE TO HEAVY ON WEDNESDAY. IT`S JUST GOING TO BE DOWNRIGHT
MISERABLE (CHILLY AND WET).

TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
LOCATIONS FOR HEAVIEST AMOUNTS. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW, STILL FEEL
THE FEELINGS BY PREVIOUS FORECASTERS THAT WE SHOULD SEE AN
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
ADIRONDACKS MAKES SENSE. THERE SHOULD BE SHADOWING BY THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS TO KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST, THE VERY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL START TO TURN NORTHEAST
AND EVENTUALLY NORTH. A NORTHERLY FLOW COMING DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY IS A CONVERGENT FLOW, AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE
THE RAINFALL HERE IN THE VALLEY LATE ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN MEAN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
CHANGING MUCH FROM DAY TO NIGHT. GUIDANCE BLENDS STILL SEEM TO BE
A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT, SO TRIED MY BEST
TO MAKE THE DIURNAL DIFFERENCE SMALLER. EVEN SO, I THINK MY FINAL
NUMBERS ARE STILL A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT.
BOTTOM LINE, 40S AT NIGHT AND SOME 50S DURING THE DAY (IF WE ARE
LUCKY).

OH YEAH, FOR THE WINTER WEATHER FANS OUT THERE -- SORRY, IT`S
LOOKING JUST WET, NOT WHITE. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE UP AROUND &
OVER 6,000FT. BESIDES, EVEN IF IT DID SNOW, IT`S STILL EARLY IN
THE SEASON AND WOULD LIKELY NOT HANG AROUND THAT LONG -- SO IT
WOULD JUST BE WASTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT LARGE UPPER LOW THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES ITS TRACK NORTHEAST
FROM CAPE COD 00Z FRI TO THE GULF OF MAINE AND CANADIAN MARITIMES
BY 12Z SAT. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF ANOTHER AND
UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. LATEST ECMWF DIGS THE
TROUGH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS OFFERING A CONTINUATION OF
OUR COLD AUTUMN PATTERN WITH THE 500MB LOW CLOSING OFF OVER MAINE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NOT GOING TO COMPLETELY BITE OFF ON THE
EURO YET...BUT WITH ITS RECENT GOOD PERFORMANCE IN THE PAST COUPLE
OF WEEKS IT`S HARD TO IGNORE. WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE
CONSENSUS BLEND AND OFFER TEMPS JUST A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO IN THE
40S AND 50S. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH WE MIGHT SEE SOME RELIEF FROM THE COLD AND WET
CONDITIONS TO START NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS ON THE WEEKEND SHIFTS EASTWARD ONTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MOVES IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH TEMPS
WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION BY MID-DAY...THOUGH NOT LOOKING AT ANY REAL RESTRICTIONS
IN VSBY PER UPSTREAM OBS. CIGS ARE ANOTHER STORY THOUGH.
KSLK/KRUT/KMPV WILL GENERALLY LOWER TO ONLY MVFR THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...THEN POSSIBLY DOWN TO IFR AFTER 00Z. JUST NW OF
KMSS CIGS ARE IFR ON NORTHEAST FLOW...AND THESE LOWER CEILINGS
SHOULD SHIFT INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY FROM 08-10Z AND REMAIN
THERE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FOR KPBG/KBTV...WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO
THE N-NE FEEL IFR CIGS NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL DRAIN DOWN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...LIKELY MID-MORNING FOR KPBG AND TOWARDS THE
EVENING FOR KBTV. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BY LIGHT FROM 5-10KTS AND
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION FROM SITE TO SITE. EXCEPTION WILL BE KMSS
WHERE NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A STEADY 10-15KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 210741
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
341 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT TO
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY LATE TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT, THE REST OF THE
WEEK WILL BE RAINY AND COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 116 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
ONLY ONE MINOR TWEAK. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
IS CAUSING THE RAIN SHOWERS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK TO
MOVE MORE NORTHEAST. HAVE ADJUSTED OUR PRECIPITATION GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANGE AND INCREASED THE AREAL COVERAGE A BIT OF
THE SHOWERS MOVING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT MONDAY...THE ACTION REALLY GETS CRANKING FOR
LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROF OFF TO THE WEST WILL
DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND ULTIMATELY CUT-OFF DOWN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
SET UP SHOP JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AND AS WE KNOW, CUT-OFFS
ARE "CUT-OFF" FROM THE MAIN FLOW, SO THAT MEANS THEY DON`T MOVE
VERY QUICKLY.

12Z GUIDANCE STILL ALL SHOWING THIS SAME SCENARIO, SO CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT WE`VE GOT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET CONDITIONS.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED AND BRING IN COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE -- RESULTING IN A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY (AND BEYOND).

TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS UP. THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.
AS THE TROUGH EVOLVES INTO A CUT-OFF LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND, THINGS WILL GET MORE
INTERESTING.

EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND STRENGTHEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ULTIMATELY WE`LL BE SEEING 850MB WINDS OUT OF
THE EAST AROUND 30-40KTS AND THIS WILL BRING IN ALL THE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE, RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT RAIN, LIKELY OCCASIONAL
MODERATE TO HEAVY ON WEDNESDAY. IT`S JUST GOING TO BE DOWNRIGHT
MISERABLE (CHILLY AND WET).

TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
LOCATIONS FOR HEAVIEST AMOUNTS. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW, STILL FEEL
THE FEELINGS BY PREVIOUS FORECASTERS THAT WE SHOULD SEE AN
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
ADIRONDACKS MAKES SENSE. THERE SHOULD BE SHADOWING BY THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS TO KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST, THE VERY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL START TO TURN NORTHEAST
AND EVENTUALLY NORTH. A NORTHERLY FLOW COMING DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY IS A CONVERGENT FLOW, AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE
THE RAINFALL HERE IN THE VALLEY LATE ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN MEAN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
CHANGING MUCH FROM DAY TO NIGHT. GUIDANCE BLENDS STILL SEEM TO BE
A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT, SO TRIED MY BEST
TO MAKE THE DIURNAL DIFFERENCE SMALLER. EVEN SO, I THINK MY FINAL
NUMBERS ARE STILL A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT.
BOTTOM LINE, 40S AT NIGHT AND SOME 50S DURING THE DAY (IF WE ARE
LUCKY).

OH YEAH, FOR THE WINTER WEATHER FANS OUT THERE -- SORRY, IT`S
LOOKING JUST WET, NOT WHITE. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE UP AROUND &
OVER 6,000FT. BESIDES, EVEN IF IT DID SNOW, IT`S STILL EARLY IN
THE SEASON AND WOULD LIKELY NOT HANG AROUND THAT LONG -- SO IT
WOULD JUST BE WASTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT LARGE UPPER LOW THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES ITS TRACK NORTHEAST
FROM CAPE COD 00Z FRI TO THE GULF OF MAINE AND CANADIAN MARITIMES
BY 12Z SAT. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF ANOTHER AND
UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. LATEST ECMWF DIGS THE
TROUGH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS OFFERING A CONTINUATION OF
OUR COLD AUTUMN PATTERN WITH THE 500MB LOW CLOSING OFF OVER MAINE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NOT GOING TO COMPLETELY BITE OFF ON THE
EURO YET...BUT WITH ITS RECENT GOOD PERFORMANCE IN THE PAST COUPLE
OF WEEKS IT`S HARD TO IGNORE. WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE
CONSENSUS BLEND AND OFFER TEMPS JUST A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO IN THE
40S AND 50S. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH WE MIGHT SEE SOME RELIEF FROM THE COLD AND WET
CONDITIONS TO START NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS ON THE WEEKEND SHIFTS EASTWARD ONTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MOVES IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH TEMPS
WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION BY MID-DAY...THOUGH NOT LOOKING AT ANY REAL RESTRICTIONS
IN VSBY PER UPSTREAM OBS. CIGS ARE ANOTHER STORY THOUGH.
KSLK/KRUT/KMPV WILL GENERALLY LOWER TO ONLY MVFR THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...THEN POSSIBLY DOWN TO IFR AFTER 00Z. JUST NW OF
KMSS CIGS ARE IFR ON NORTHEAST FLOW...AND THESE LOWER CEILINGS
SHOULD SHIFT INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY FROM 08-10Z AND REMAIN
THERE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FOR KPBG/KBTV...WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO
THE N-NE FEEL IFR CIGS NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL DRAIN DOWN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...LIKELY MID-MORNING FOR KPBG AND TOWARDS THE
EVENING FOR KBTV. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BY LIGHT FROM 5-10KTS AND
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION FROM SITE TO SITE. EXCEPTION WILL BE KMSS
WHERE NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A STEADY 10-15KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 210741
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
341 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT TO
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY LATE TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT, THE REST OF THE
WEEK WILL BE RAINY AND COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 116 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
ONLY ONE MINOR TWEAK. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
IS CAUSING THE RAIN SHOWERS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK TO
MOVE MORE NORTHEAST. HAVE ADJUSTED OUR PRECIPITATION GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANGE AND INCREASED THE AREAL COVERAGE A BIT OF
THE SHOWERS MOVING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT MONDAY...THE ACTION REALLY GETS CRANKING FOR
LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROF OFF TO THE WEST WILL
DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND ULTIMATELY CUT-OFF DOWN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
SET UP SHOP JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AND AS WE KNOW, CUT-OFFS
ARE "CUT-OFF" FROM THE MAIN FLOW, SO THAT MEANS THEY DON`T MOVE
VERY QUICKLY.

12Z GUIDANCE STILL ALL SHOWING THIS SAME SCENARIO, SO CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT WE`VE GOT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET CONDITIONS.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED AND BRING IN COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE -- RESULTING IN A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY (AND BEYOND).

TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS UP. THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.
AS THE TROUGH EVOLVES INTO A CUT-OFF LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND, THINGS WILL GET MORE
INTERESTING.

EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND STRENGTHEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ULTIMATELY WE`LL BE SEEING 850MB WINDS OUT OF
THE EAST AROUND 30-40KTS AND THIS WILL BRING IN ALL THE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE, RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT RAIN, LIKELY OCCASIONAL
MODERATE TO HEAVY ON WEDNESDAY. IT`S JUST GOING TO BE DOWNRIGHT
MISERABLE (CHILLY AND WET).

TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
LOCATIONS FOR HEAVIEST AMOUNTS. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW, STILL FEEL
THE FEELINGS BY PREVIOUS FORECASTERS THAT WE SHOULD SEE AN
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
ADIRONDACKS MAKES SENSE. THERE SHOULD BE SHADOWING BY THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS TO KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST, THE VERY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL START TO TURN NORTHEAST
AND EVENTUALLY NORTH. A NORTHERLY FLOW COMING DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY IS A CONVERGENT FLOW, AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE
THE RAINFALL HERE IN THE VALLEY LATE ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN MEAN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
CHANGING MUCH FROM DAY TO NIGHT. GUIDANCE BLENDS STILL SEEM TO BE
A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT, SO TRIED MY BEST
TO MAKE THE DIURNAL DIFFERENCE SMALLER. EVEN SO, I THINK MY FINAL
NUMBERS ARE STILL A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT.
BOTTOM LINE, 40S AT NIGHT AND SOME 50S DURING THE DAY (IF WE ARE
LUCKY).

OH YEAH, FOR THE WINTER WEATHER FANS OUT THERE -- SORRY, IT`S
LOOKING JUST WET, NOT WHITE. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE UP AROUND &
OVER 6,000FT. BESIDES, EVEN IF IT DID SNOW, IT`S STILL EARLY IN
THE SEASON AND WOULD LIKELY NOT HANG AROUND THAT LONG -- SO IT
WOULD JUST BE WASTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT LARGE UPPER LOW THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES ITS TRACK NORTHEAST
FROM CAPE COD 00Z FRI TO THE GULF OF MAINE AND CANADIAN MARITIMES
BY 12Z SAT. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF ANOTHER AND
UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. LATEST ECMWF DIGS THE
TROUGH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS OFFERING A CONTINUATION OF
OUR COLD AUTUMN PATTERN WITH THE 500MB LOW CLOSING OFF OVER MAINE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NOT GOING TO COMPLETELY BITE OFF ON THE
EURO YET...BUT WITH ITS RECENT GOOD PERFORMANCE IN THE PAST COUPLE
OF WEEKS IT`S HARD TO IGNORE. WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE
CONSENSUS BLEND AND OFFER TEMPS JUST A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO IN THE
40S AND 50S. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH WE MIGHT SEE SOME RELIEF FROM THE COLD AND WET
CONDITIONS TO START NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS ON THE WEEKEND SHIFTS EASTWARD ONTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MOVES IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH TEMPS
WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION BY MID-DAY...THOUGH NOT LOOKING AT ANY REAL RESTRICTIONS
IN VSBY PER UPSTREAM OBS. CIGS ARE ANOTHER STORY THOUGH.
KSLK/KRUT/KMPV WILL GENERALLY LOWER TO ONLY MVFR THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...THEN POSSIBLY DOWN TO IFR AFTER 00Z. JUST NW OF
KMSS CIGS ARE IFR ON NORTHEAST FLOW...AND THESE LOWER CEILINGS
SHOULD SHIFT INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY FROM 08-10Z AND REMAIN
THERE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FOR KPBG/KBTV...WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO
THE N-NE FEEL IFR CIGS NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL DRAIN DOWN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...LIKELY MID-MORNING FOR KPBG AND TOWARDS THE
EVENING FOR KBTV. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BY LIGHT FROM 5-10KTS AND
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION FROM SITE TO SITE. EXCEPTION WILL BE KMSS
WHERE NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A STEADY 10-15KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KALY 210549
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
149 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT...LOW PRESSURE WAS JUST EAST OF GEORGIAN BAY
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING EAST ALONG THE US CANADIAN
BORDER AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY BACK TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CLOUD COVER HAS
BECOME EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE FA WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE
HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL RETURNS ON RADAR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT
MUCH OF THIS IS EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE SFC...OR VIRGA...
ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS INDICATED BY THE 00Z
ALY SOUNDING MAY LIMIT MUCH RAINFALL FROM OCCURRING OVERNIGHT...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE MID LEVELS
HAVE MOISTENED UP A BIT...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE
PERSISTENT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT A BIT
FARTHER S AND E...ESP TOWARD DAYBREAK. WILL GENERALLY KEEP POPS IN
THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR SOME LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL
POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND
WARM ADVECTION. HAVE TRENDED MOST AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET
MOS...WITH GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S EXPECTED...WARMEST WITHIN
THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION...WHERE A LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHOULD PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL FORM A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. FOR OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE PRESENT...ESP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE QUITE LIMITED DURING THIS TIME. SO...IT APPEARS
THAT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WOULD BE THE BEST WAY TO
DESCRIBE RAINFALL CHANCES DURING TUESDAY...WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY
EXPERIENCING SOME LONGER STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER IN BETWEEN. IN
FACT...ACROSS SOME SOUTHERN AREAS...A FEW BREAKS OF SUN COULD EVEN
OCCUR AT TIMES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY THE SE
CATSKILLS...WHERE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE INDICATED...AND
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PERSISTENT. FOR TUE NT...AGAIN...OVERALL
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT GREAT...WITH THE MAIN
FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND COAST. WILL KEEP CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS...BUT
AGAIN...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT BE RAINING ALL THE TIME AND IN
ALL AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...ASSUMING SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE
CLOUDS...AND LIMITED PRECIP OCCUR...HAVE SIDED A BIT CLOSER TO THE
WARMER MET MOS FOR TUE MAXES...WITH GENERALLY 55-60 IN VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR TUE NT...AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BACK INTO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING
PRESSURES TO OUR SOUTH...TEMPS SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOWER/MID
40S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED-THU...MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY JET WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIME...BEFORE SLOWLY PIVOTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WED NT-THU. THE
NOSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET SEEMS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR WED AFTN...BEFORE PIVOTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND LATE WED NT AND THU. LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW LEVEL JET...ALONG WITH STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
295-300 K SURFACES...WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
SHOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT FOR A TIME WED NT-
THU. ALSO...A SECONDARY MAX IN PRECIP IS LIKELY ACROSS UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES MAY OCCUR IN THESE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS...WITH
GENERALLY 0.50-1 INCH IN THE VALLEYS. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT STRONG NE DOWNSLOPING WINDS COULD CREATE MORE DRAMATIC RAIN
SHADOWING IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SOME
AREAS COULD BE AT OR EVEN BELOW THE LOWER END OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED VALLEY RANGES. SO...BANDS OF RAIN ROTATING WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL BECOME MORE
PROMINENT FOR WED-THU...WITH A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN
POSSIBLE...ESP WED NT AND THU AM...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BRIEFLY
ORIENTS ITSELF TOWARD EASTERN NYS/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT WILL BE
QUITE RAW DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH BRISK N/NE WINDS. IN
FACT...SOME GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH COULD OCCUR AT TIMES ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NT. MAX TEMPS ON WED SHOULD ONLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH EVEN COOLER MAXES COULD OCCUR IF STEADIER
RAIN DEVELOPS. THU MAXES SHOULD ONLY REACH 45-50 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS FOR WED
NT/THU AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THINGS START OFF WET BUT QUICKLY TURN DRY AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF
CAPE COD HEADS UP THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...DRAWING WET
WEATHER TO A CLOSE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND PROVIDING FOR A PLEASANT LATE
OCTOBER WEEKEND.  A FEW WESTERN ADIRONDACK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RAPIDLY
MOVING...THOUGH VERY DRY...COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  BY EARLY MONDAY...THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE MADE IT ALL THE WAY TO SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL BE
HARDLY NOTICEABLE DOWN THERE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN MOSTLY THE 45 TO 60 DEGREE
RANGE...BUT WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES MILDER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
EXTENDED.  OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL LOCATIONS...BUT WILL FALL
INTO THE 40S EVERYWHERE.  NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD IN
ALBANY ARE IN THE THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THIS MORNING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MENTION PREVAILING SHOWERS
DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE
ENTIRE TIME AS BATCHES OF SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH.

FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR RANGE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH CIGS ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASING. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATION SITE KPSF. BY THIS
EVENING THERE WILL BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
AT THE KALB/KPOU/KGFL TERMINALS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5
KT BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 210549
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
149 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT...LOW PRESSURE WAS JUST EAST OF GEORGIAN BAY
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING EAST ALONG THE US CANADIAN
BORDER AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY BACK TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CLOUD COVER HAS
BECOME EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE FA WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE
HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL RETURNS ON RADAR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT
MUCH OF THIS IS EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE SFC...OR VIRGA...
ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS INDICATED BY THE 00Z
ALY SOUNDING MAY LIMIT MUCH RAINFALL FROM OCCURRING OVERNIGHT...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE MID LEVELS
HAVE MOISTENED UP A BIT...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE
PERSISTENT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT A BIT
FARTHER S AND E...ESP TOWARD DAYBREAK. WILL GENERALLY KEEP POPS IN
THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR SOME LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL
POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND
WARM ADVECTION. HAVE TRENDED MOST AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET
MOS...WITH GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S EXPECTED...WARMEST WITHIN
THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION...WHERE A LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHOULD PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL FORM A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. FOR OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE PRESENT...ESP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE QUITE LIMITED DURING THIS TIME. SO...IT APPEARS
THAT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WOULD BE THE BEST WAY TO
DESCRIBE RAINFALL CHANCES DURING TUESDAY...WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY
EXPERIENCING SOME LONGER STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER IN BETWEEN. IN
FACT...ACROSS SOME SOUTHERN AREAS...A FEW BREAKS OF SUN COULD EVEN
OCCUR AT TIMES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY THE SE
CATSKILLS...WHERE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE INDICATED...AND
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PERSISTENT. FOR TUE NT...AGAIN...OVERALL
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT GREAT...WITH THE MAIN
FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND COAST. WILL KEEP CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS...BUT
AGAIN...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT BE RAINING ALL THE TIME AND IN
ALL AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...ASSUMING SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE
CLOUDS...AND LIMITED PRECIP OCCUR...HAVE SIDED A BIT CLOSER TO THE
WARMER MET MOS FOR TUE MAXES...WITH GENERALLY 55-60 IN VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR TUE NT...AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BACK INTO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING
PRESSURES TO OUR SOUTH...TEMPS SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOWER/MID
40S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED-THU...MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY JET WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIME...BEFORE SLOWLY PIVOTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WED NT-THU. THE
NOSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET SEEMS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR WED AFTN...BEFORE PIVOTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND LATE WED NT AND THU. LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW LEVEL JET...ALONG WITH STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
295-300 K SURFACES...WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
SHOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT FOR A TIME WED NT-
THU. ALSO...A SECONDARY MAX IN PRECIP IS LIKELY ACROSS UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES MAY OCCUR IN THESE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS...WITH
GENERALLY 0.50-1 INCH IN THE VALLEYS. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT STRONG NE DOWNSLOPING WINDS COULD CREATE MORE DRAMATIC RAIN
SHADOWING IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SOME
AREAS COULD BE AT OR EVEN BELOW THE LOWER END OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED VALLEY RANGES. SO...BANDS OF RAIN ROTATING WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL BECOME MORE
PROMINENT FOR WED-THU...WITH A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN
POSSIBLE...ESP WED NT AND THU AM...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BRIEFLY
ORIENTS ITSELF TOWARD EASTERN NYS/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT WILL BE
QUITE RAW DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH BRISK N/NE WINDS. IN
FACT...SOME GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH COULD OCCUR AT TIMES ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NT. MAX TEMPS ON WED SHOULD ONLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH EVEN COOLER MAXES COULD OCCUR IF STEADIER
RAIN DEVELOPS. THU MAXES SHOULD ONLY REACH 45-50 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS FOR WED
NT/THU AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THINGS START OFF WET BUT QUICKLY TURN DRY AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF
CAPE COD HEADS UP THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...DRAWING WET
WEATHER TO A CLOSE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND PROVIDING FOR A PLEASANT LATE
OCTOBER WEEKEND.  A FEW WESTERN ADIRONDACK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RAPIDLY
MOVING...THOUGH VERY DRY...COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  BY EARLY MONDAY...THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE MADE IT ALL THE WAY TO SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL BE
HARDLY NOTICEABLE DOWN THERE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN MOSTLY THE 45 TO 60 DEGREE
RANGE...BUT WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES MILDER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
EXTENDED.  OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL LOCATIONS...BUT WILL FALL
INTO THE 40S EVERYWHERE.  NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD IN
ALBANY ARE IN THE THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THIS MORNING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MENTION PREVAILING SHOWERS
DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE
ENTIRE TIME AS BATCHES OF SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH.

FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR RANGE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH CIGS ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASING. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATION SITE KPSF. BY THIS
EVENING THERE WILL BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
AT THE KALB/KPOU/KGFL TERMINALS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5
KT BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 210549
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
149 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT...LOW PRESSURE WAS JUST EAST OF GEORGIAN BAY
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING EAST ALONG THE US CANADIAN
BORDER AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY BACK TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CLOUD COVER HAS
BECOME EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE FA WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE
HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL RETURNS ON RADAR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT
MUCH OF THIS IS EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE SFC...OR VIRGA...
ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS INDICATED BY THE 00Z
ALY SOUNDING MAY LIMIT MUCH RAINFALL FROM OCCURRING OVERNIGHT...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE MID LEVELS
HAVE MOISTENED UP A BIT...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE
PERSISTENT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT A BIT
FARTHER S AND E...ESP TOWARD DAYBREAK. WILL GENERALLY KEEP POPS IN
THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR SOME LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL
POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND
WARM ADVECTION. HAVE TRENDED MOST AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET
MOS...WITH GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S EXPECTED...WARMEST WITHIN
THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION...WHERE A LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHOULD PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL FORM A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. FOR OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE PRESENT...ESP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE QUITE LIMITED DURING THIS TIME. SO...IT APPEARS
THAT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WOULD BE THE BEST WAY TO
DESCRIBE RAINFALL CHANCES DURING TUESDAY...WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY
EXPERIENCING SOME LONGER STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER IN BETWEEN. IN
FACT...ACROSS SOME SOUTHERN AREAS...A FEW BREAKS OF SUN COULD EVEN
OCCUR AT TIMES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY THE SE
CATSKILLS...WHERE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE INDICATED...AND
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PERSISTENT. FOR TUE NT...AGAIN...OVERALL
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT GREAT...WITH THE MAIN
FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND COAST. WILL KEEP CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS...BUT
AGAIN...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT BE RAINING ALL THE TIME AND IN
ALL AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...ASSUMING SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE
CLOUDS...AND LIMITED PRECIP OCCUR...HAVE SIDED A BIT CLOSER TO THE
WARMER MET MOS FOR TUE MAXES...WITH GENERALLY 55-60 IN VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR TUE NT...AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BACK INTO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING
PRESSURES TO OUR SOUTH...TEMPS SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOWER/MID
40S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED-THU...MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY JET WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIME...BEFORE SLOWLY PIVOTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WED NT-THU. THE
NOSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET SEEMS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR WED AFTN...BEFORE PIVOTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND LATE WED NT AND THU. LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW LEVEL JET...ALONG WITH STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
295-300 K SURFACES...WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
SHOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT FOR A TIME WED NT-
THU. ALSO...A SECONDARY MAX IN PRECIP IS LIKELY ACROSS UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES MAY OCCUR IN THESE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS...WITH
GENERALLY 0.50-1 INCH IN THE VALLEYS. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT STRONG NE DOWNSLOPING WINDS COULD CREATE MORE DRAMATIC RAIN
SHADOWING IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SOME
AREAS COULD BE AT OR EVEN BELOW THE LOWER END OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED VALLEY RANGES. SO...BANDS OF RAIN ROTATING WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL BECOME MORE
PROMINENT FOR WED-THU...WITH A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN
POSSIBLE...ESP WED NT AND THU AM...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BRIEFLY
ORIENTS ITSELF TOWARD EASTERN NYS/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT WILL BE
QUITE RAW DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH BRISK N/NE WINDS. IN
FACT...SOME GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH COULD OCCUR AT TIMES ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NT. MAX TEMPS ON WED SHOULD ONLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH EVEN COOLER MAXES COULD OCCUR IF STEADIER
RAIN DEVELOPS. THU MAXES SHOULD ONLY REACH 45-50 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS FOR WED
NT/THU AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THINGS START OFF WET BUT QUICKLY TURN DRY AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF
CAPE COD HEADS UP THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...DRAWING WET
WEATHER TO A CLOSE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND PROVIDING FOR A PLEASANT LATE
OCTOBER WEEKEND.  A FEW WESTERN ADIRONDACK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RAPIDLY
MOVING...THOUGH VERY DRY...COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  BY EARLY MONDAY...THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE MADE IT ALL THE WAY TO SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL BE
HARDLY NOTICEABLE DOWN THERE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN MOSTLY THE 45 TO 60 DEGREE
RANGE...BUT WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES MILDER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
EXTENDED.  OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL LOCATIONS...BUT WILL FALL
INTO THE 40S EVERYWHERE.  NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD IN
ALBANY ARE IN THE THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THIS MORNING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MENTION PREVAILING SHOWERS
DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE
ENTIRE TIME AS BATCHES OF SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH.

FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR RANGE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH CIGS ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASING. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATION SITE KPSF. BY THIS
EVENING THERE WILL BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
AT THE KALB/KPOU/KGFL TERMINALS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5
KT BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 210549
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
149 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT...LOW PRESSURE WAS JUST EAST OF GEORGIAN BAY
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING EAST ALONG THE US CANADIAN
BORDER AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY BACK TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CLOUD COVER HAS
BECOME EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE FA WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE
HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL RETURNS ON RADAR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT
MUCH OF THIS IS EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE SFC...OR VIRGA...
ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS INDICATED BY THE 00Z
ALY SOUNDING MAY LIMIT MUCH RAINFALL FROM OCCURRING OVERNIGHT...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE MID LEVELS
HAVE MOISTENED UP A BIT...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE
PERSISTENT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT A BIT
FARTHER S AND E...ESP TOWARD DAYBREAK. WILL GENERALLY KEEP POPS IN
THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR SOME LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL
POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND
WARM ADVECTION. HAVE TRENDED MOST AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET
MOS...WITH GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S EXPECTED...WARMEST WITHIN
THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION...WHERE A LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHOULD PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL FORM A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. FOR OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE PRESENT...ESP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE QUITE LIMITED DURING THIS TIME. SO...IT APPEARS
THAT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WOULD BE THE BEST WAY TO
DESCRIBE RAINFALL CHANCES DURING TUESDAY...WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY
EXPERIENCING SOME LONGER STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER IN BETWEEN. IN
FACT...ACROSS SOME SOUTHERN AREAS...A FEW BREAKS OF SUN COULD EVEN
OCCUR AT TIMES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY THE SE
CATSKILLS...WHERE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE INDICATED...AND
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PERSISTENT. FOR TUE NT...AGAIN...OVERALL
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT GREAT...WITH THE MAIN
FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND COAST. WILL KEEP CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS...BUT
AGAIN...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT BE RAINING ALL THE TIME AND IN
ALL AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...ASSUMING SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE
CLOUDS...AND LIMITED PRECIP OCCUR...HAVE SIDED A BIT CLOSER TO THE
WARMER MET MOS FOR TUE MAXES...WITH GENERALLY 55-60 IN VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR TUE NT...AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BACK INTO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING
PRESSURES TO OUR SOUTH...TEMPS SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOWER/MID
40S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED-THU...MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY JET WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIME...BEFORE SLOWLY PIVOTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WED NT-THU. THE
NOSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET SEEMS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR WED AFTN...BEFORE PIVOTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND LATE WED NT AND THU. LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW LEVEL JET...ALONG WITH STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
295-300 K SURFACES...WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
SHOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT FOR A TIME WED NT-
THU. ALSO...A SECONDARY MAX IN PRECIP IS LIKELY ACROSS UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES MAY OCCUR IN THESE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS...WITH
GENERALLY 0.50-1 INCH IN THE VALLEYS. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT STRONG NE DOWNSLOPING WINDS COULD CREATE MORE DRAMATIC RAIN
SHADOWING IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SOME
AREAS COULD BE AT OR EVEN BELOW THE LOWER END OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED VALLEY RANGES. SO...BANDS OF RAIN ROTATING WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL BECOME MORE
PROMINENT FOR WED-THU...WITH A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN
POSSIBLE...ESP WED NT AND THU AM...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BRIEFLY
ORIENTS ITSELF TOWARD EASTERN NYS/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT WILL BE
QUITE RAW DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH BRISK N/NE WINDS. IN
FACT...SOME GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH COULD OCCUR AT TIMES ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NT. MAX TEMPS ON WED SHOULD ONLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH EVEN COOLER MAXES COULD OCCUR IF STEADIER
RAIN DEVELOPS. THU MAXES SHOULD ONLY REACH 45-50 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS FOR WED
NT/THU AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THINGS START OFF WET BUT QUICKLY TURN DRY AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF
CAPE COD HEADS UP THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...DRAWING WET
WEATHER TO A CLOSE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND PROVIDING FOR A PLEASANT LATE
OCTOBER WEEKEND.  A FEW WESTERN ADIRONDACK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RAPIDLY
MOVING...THOUGH VERY DRY...COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  BY EARLY MONDAY...THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE MADE IT ALL THE WAY TO SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL BE
HARDLY NOTICEABLE DOWN THERE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN MOSTLY THE 45 TO 60 DEGREE
RANGE...BUT WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES MILDER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
EXTENDED.  OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL LOCATIONS...BUT WILL FALL
INTO THE 40S EVERYWHERE.  NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD IN
ALBANY ARE IN THE THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THIS MORNING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MENTION PREVAILING SHOWERS
DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE
ENTIRE TIME AS BATCHES OF SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH.

FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR RANGE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH CIGS ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASING. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATION SITE KPSF. BY THIS
EVENING THERE WILL BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
AT THE KALB/KPOU/KGFL TERMINALS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5
KT BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 210540
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
140 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT TO
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY LATE TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT, THE REST OF THE
WEEK WILL BE RAINY AND COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 116 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
ONLY ONE MINOR TWEAK. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
IS CAUSING THE RAIN SHOWERS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK TO
MOVE MORE NORTHEAST. HAVE ADJUSTED OUR PRECIPITATION GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANGE AND INCREASED THE AREAL COVERAGE A BIT OF
THE SHOWERS MOVING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT MONDAY...THE ACTION REALLY GETS CRANKING FOR
LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROF OFF TO THE WEST WILL
DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND ULTIMATELY CUT-OFF DOWN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
SET UP SHOP JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AND AS WE KNOW, CUT-OFFS
ARE "CUT-OFF" FROM THE MAIN FLOW, SO THAT MEANS THEY DON`T MOVE
VERY QUICKLY.

12Z GUIDANCE STILL ALL SHOWING THIS SAME SCENARIO, SO CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT WE`VE GOT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET CONDITIONS.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED AND BRING IN COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE -- RESULTING IN A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY (AND BEYOND).

TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS UP. THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.
AS THE TROUGH EVOLVES INTO A CUT-OFF LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND, THINGS WILL GET MORE
INTERESTING.

EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND STRENGTHEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ULTIMATELY WE`LL BE SEEING 850MB WINDS OUT OF
THE EAST AROUND 30-40KTS AND THIS WILL BRING IN ALL THE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE, RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT RAIN, LIKELY OCCASIONAL
MODERATE TO HEAVY ON WEDNESDAY. IT`S JUST GOING TO BE DOWNRIGHT
MISERABLE (CHILLY AND WET).

TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
LOCATIONS FOR HEAVIEST AMOUNTS. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW, STILL FEEL
THE FEELINGS BY PREVIOUS FORECASTERS THAT WE SHOULD SEE AN
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
ADIRONDACKS MAKES SENSE. THERE SHOULD BE SHADOWING BY THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS TO KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST, THE VERY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL START TO TURN NORTHEAST
AND EVENTUALLY NORTH. A NORTHERLY FLOW COMING DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY IS A CONVERGENT FLOW, AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE
THE RAINFALL HERE IN THE VALLEY LATE ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN MEAN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
CHANGING MUCH FROM DAY TO NIGHT. GUIDANCE BLENDS STILL SEEM TO BE
A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT, SO TRIED MY BEST
TO MAKE THE DIURNAL DIFFERENCE SMALLER. EVEN SO, I THINK MY FINAL
NUMBERS ARE STILL A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT.
BOTTOM LINE, 40S AT NIGHT AND SOME 50S DURING THE DAY (IF WE ARE
LUCKY).

OH YEAH, FOR THE WINTER WEATHER FANS OUT THERE -- SORRY, IT`S
LOOKING JUST WET, NOT WHITE. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE UP AROUND &
OVER 6,000FT. BESIDES, EVEN IF IT DID SNOW, IT`S STILL EARLY IN
THE SEASON AND WOULD LIKELY NOT HANG AROUND THAT LONG -- SO IT
WOULD JUST BE WASTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO PULL
SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND MARITIMES
BY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. DEFORMATIONAL FORCING CONTINUES TO
BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE MODERATE MID LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
UNDERCUT BY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLIES. THIS VEERING/WARM THERMAL
ADVECTIVE PROFILE OFTEN FAVORS MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE I`LL MAINTAIN
HIGH POPS AND HEAVIEST QPF.

STEADIER PRECIPITATION/RAINFALL THEN SLOWLY TAPERS TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS DEFORMATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT.
HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF
ADDITIONAL TAIL END SHORTWAVE ENERGY IT WON`T COMPLETELY DRY OUT UNTIL
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
FINALLY MAKES SOME INROADS EASTWARD. CONTINUED PRIOR TRENDS IN REGARD
TO TEMPS BY UNDERCUTTING MOS HIGHS AND NARROWING MEAN DIURNAL RANGES
DURING THU/FRI TIME FRAME WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION/NORTHERLY FLOW...
GENERALLY OFFERING A RATHER HIGH DEGREE OF HOMOGENEITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION...INCLUDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VALUES FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD
RANGE THROUGH THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCALES THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THEREAFTER...READINGS MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS THERMAL ADVECTIVE
PROCESSES WEAKEN AND PROGS OF AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUN GRADUALLY
INCREASE...ESP BY NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION BY MID-DAY...THOUGH NOT LOOKING AT ANY REAL RESTRICTIONS
IN VSBY PER UPSTREAM OBS. CIGS ARE ANOTHER STORY THOUGH.
KSLK/KRUT/KMPV WILL GENERALLY LOWER TO ONLY MVFR THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...THEN POSSIBLY DOWN TO IFR AFTER 00Z. JUST NW OF
KMSS CIGS ARE IFR ON NORTHEAST FLOW...AND THESE LOWER CEILINGS
SHOULD SHIFT INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY FROM 08-10Z AND REMAIN
THERE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FOR KPBG/KBTV...WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO
THE N-NE FEEL IFR CIGS NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL DRAIN DOWN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...LIKELY MID-MORNING FOR KPBG AND TOWARDS THE
EVENING FOR KBTV. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BY LIGHT FROM 5-10KTS AND
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION FROM SITE TO SITE. EXCEPTION WILL BE KMSS
WHERE NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A STEADY 10-15KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 210540
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
140 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT TO
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY LATE TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT, THE REST OF THE
WEEK WILL BE RAINY AND COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 116 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
ONLY ONE MINOR TWEAK. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
IS CAUSING THE RAIN SHOWERS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK TO
MOVE MORE NORTHEAST. HAVE ADJUSTED OUR PRECIPITATION GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANGE AND INCREASED THE AREAL COVERAGE A BIT OF
THE SHOWERS MOVING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT MONDAY...THE ACTION REALLY GETS CRANKING FOR
LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROF OFF TO THE WEST WILL
DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND ULTIMATELY CUT-OFF DOWN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
SET UP SHOP JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AND AS WE KNOW, CUT-OFFS
ARE "CUT-OFF" FROM THE MAIN FLOW, SO THAT MEANS THEY DON`T MOVE
VERY QUICKLY.

12Z GUIDANCE STILL ALL SHOWING THIS SAME SCENARIO, SO CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT WE`VE GOT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET CONDITIONS.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED AND BRING IN COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE -- RESULTING IN A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY (AND BEYOND).

TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS UP. THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.
AS THE TROUGH EVOLVES INTO A CUT-OFF LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND, THINGS WILL GET MORE
INTERESTING.

EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND STRENGTHEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ULTIMATELY WE`LL BE SEEING 850MB WINDS OUT OF
THE EAST AROUND 30-40KTS AND THIS WILL BRING IN ALL THE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE, RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT RAIN, LIKELY OCCASIONAL
MODERATE TO HEAVY ON WEDNESDAY. IT`S JUST GOING TO BE DOWNRIGHT
MISERABLE (CHILLY AND WET).

TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
LOCATIONS FOR HEAVIEST AMOUNTS. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW, STILL FEEL
THE FEELINGS BY PREVIOUS FORECASTERS THAT WE SHOULD SEE AN
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
ADIRONDACKS MAKES SENSE. THERE SHOULD BE SHADOWING BY THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS TO KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST, THE VERY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL START TO TURN NORTHEAST
AND EVENTUALLY NORTH. A NORTHERLY FLOW COMING DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY IS A CONVERGENT FLOW, AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE
THE RAINFALL HERE IN THE VALLEY LATE ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN MEAN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
CHANGING MUCH FROM DAY TO NIGHT. GUIDANCE BLENDS STILL SEEM TO BE
A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT, SO TRIED MY BEST
TO MAKE THE DIURNAL DIFFERENCE SMALLER. EVEN SO, I THINK MY FINAL
NUMBERS ARE STILL A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT.
BOTTOM LINE, 40S AT NIGHT AND SOME 50S DURING THE DAY (IF WE ARE
LUCKY).

OH YEAH, FOR THE WINTER WEATHER FANS OUT THERE -- SORRY, IT`S
LOOKING JUST WET, NOT WHITE. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE UP AROUND &
OVER 6,000FT. BESIDES, EVEN IF IT DID SNOW, IT`S STILL EARLY IN
THE SEASON AND WOULD LIKELY NOT HANG AROUND THAT LONG -- SO IT
WOULD JUST BE WASTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO PULL
SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND MARITIMES
BY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. DEFORMATIONAL FORCING CONTINUES TO
BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE MODERATE MID LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
UNDERCUT BY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLIES. THIS VEERING/WARM THERMAL
ADVECTIVE PROFILE OFTEN FAVORS MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE I`LL MAINTAIN
HIGH POPS AND HEAVIEST QPF.

STEADIER PRECIPITATION/RAINFALL THEN SLOWLY TAPERS TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS DEFORMATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT.
HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF
ADDITIONAL TAIL END SHORTWAVE ENERGY IT WON`T COMPLETELY DRY OUT UNTIL
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
FINALLY MAKES SOME INROADS EASTWARD. CONTINUED PRIOR TRENDS IN REGARD
TO TEMPS BY UNDERCUTTING MOS HIGHS AND NARROWING MEAN DIURNAL RANGES
DURING THU/FRI TIME FRAME WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION/NORTHERLY FLOW...
GENERALLY OFFERING A RATHER HIGH DEGREE OF HOMOGENEITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION...INCLUDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VALUES FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD
RANGE THROUGH THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCALES THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THEREAFTER...READINGS MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS THERMAL ADVECTIVE
PROCESSES WEAKEN AND PROGS OF AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUN GRADUALLY
INCREASE...ESP BY NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION BY MID-DAY...THOUGH NOT LOOKING AT ANY REAL RESTRICTIONS
IN VSBY PER UPSTREAM OBS. CIGS ARE ANOTHER STORY THOUGH.
KSLK/KRUT/KMPV WILL GENERALLY LOWER TO ONLY MVFR THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...THEN POSSIBLY DOWN TO IFR AFTER 00Z. JUST NW OF
KMSS CIGS ARE IFR ON NORTHEAST FLOW...AND THESE LOWER CEILINGS
SHOULD SHIFT INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY FROM 08-10Z AND REMAIN
THERE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FOR KPBG/KBTV...WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO
THE N-NE FEEL IFR CIGS NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL DRAIN DOWN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...LIKELY MID-MORNING FOR KPBG AND TOWARDS THE
EVENING FOR KBTV. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BY LIGHT FROM 5-10KTS AND
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION FROM SITE TO SITE. EXCEPTION WILL BE KMSS
WHERE NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A STEADY 10-15KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...LAHIFF








000
FXUS61 KALY 210531
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT...LOW PRESSURE WAS JUST EAST OF GEORGIAN BAY
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING EAST ALONG THE US CANADIAN
BORDER AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY BACK TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CLOUD COVER HAS
BECOME EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE FA WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE
HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL RETURNS ON RADAR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT
MUCH OF THIS IS EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE SFC...OR VIRGA...
ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS INDICATED BY THE 00Z
ALY SOUNDING MAY LIMIT MUCH RAINFALL FROM OCCURRING OVERNIGHT...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE MID LEVELS
HAVE MOISTENED UP A BIT...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE
PERSISTENT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT A BIT
FARTHER S AND E...ESP TOWARD DAYBREAK. WILL GENERALLY KEEP POPS IN
THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR SOME LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL
POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND
WARM ADVECTION. HAVE TRENDED MOST AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET
MOS...WITH GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S EXPECTED...WARMEST WITHIN
THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION...WHERE A LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHOULD PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL FORM A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. FOR OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE PRESENT...ESP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE QUITE LIMITED DURING THIS TIME. SO...IT APPEARS
THAT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WOULD BE THE BEST WAY TO
DESCRIBE RAINFALL CHANCES DURING TUESDAY...WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY
EXPERIENCING SOME LONGER STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER IN BETWEEN. IN
FACT...ACROSS SOME SOUTHERN AREAS...A FEW BREAKS OF SUN COULD EVEN
OCCUR AT TIMES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY THE SE
CATSKILLS...WHERE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE INDICATED...AND
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PERSISTENT. FOR TUE NT...AGAIN...OVERALL
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT GREAT...WITH THE MAIN
FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND COAST. WILL KEEP CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS...BUT
AGAIN...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT BE RAINING ALL THE TIME AND IN
ALL AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...ASSUMING SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE
CLOUDS...AND LIMITED PRECIP OCCUR...HAVE SIDED A BIT CLOSER TO THE
WARMER MET MOS FOR TUE MAXES...WITH GENERALLY 55-60 IN VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR TUE NT...AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BACK INTO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING
PRESSURES TO OUR SOUTH...TEMPS SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOWER/MID
40S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED-THU...MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY JET WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIME...BEFORE SLOWLY PIVOTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WED NT-THU. THE
NOSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET SEEMS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR WED AFTN...BEFORE PIVOTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND LATE WED NT AND THU. LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW LEVEL JET...ALONG WITH STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
295-300 K SURFACES...WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
SHOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT FOR A TIME WED NT-
THU. ALSO...A SECONDARY MAX IN PRECIP IS LIKELY ACROSS UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES MAY OCCUR IN THESE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS...WITH
GENERALLY 0.50-1 INCH IN THE VALLEYS. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT STRONG NE DOWNSLOPING WINDS COULD CREATE MORE DRAMATIC RAIN
SHADOWING IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SOME
AREAS COULD BE AT OR EVEN BELOW THE LOWER END OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED VALLEY RANGES. SO...BANDS OF RAIN ROTATING WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL BECOME MORE
PROMINENT FOR WED-THU...WITH A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN
POSSIBLE...ESP WED NT AND THU AM...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BRIEFLY
ORIENTS ITSELF TOWARD EASTERN NYS/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT WILL BE
QUITE RAW DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH BRISK N/NE WINDS. IN
FACT...SOME GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH COULD OCCUR AT TIMES ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NT. MAX TEMPS ON WED SHOULD ONLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH EVEN COOLER MAXES COULD OCCUR IF STEADIER
RAIN DEVELOPS. THU MAXES SHOULD ONLY REACH 45-50 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS FOR WED
NT/THU AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THINGS START OFF WET BUT QUICKLY TURN DRY AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF
CAPE COD HEADS UP THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...DRAWING WET
WEATHER TO A CLOSE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND PROVIDING FOR A PLEASANT LATE
OCTOBER WEEKEND.  A FEW WESTERN ADIRONDACK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RAPIDLY
MOVING...THOUGH VERY DRY...COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  BY EARLY MONDAY...THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE MADE IT ALL THE WAY TO SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL BE
HARDLY NOTICEABLE DOWN THERE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN MOSTLY THE 45 TO 60 DEGREE
RANGE...BUT WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES MILDER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
EXTENDED.  OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL LOCATIONS...BUT WILL FALL
INTO THE 40S EVERYWHERE.  NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD IN
ALBANY ARE IN THE THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
ENDING 00Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. CEILING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN IN
VFR RANGE AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z...SO WILL MENTION VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF SOME SHOWERS AFFECTING ALL
TAF SITES AFT 18Z SO HAVE PLACED 6SM -SHRA IN THE TAFS AFTER
THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM TONIGHT...THEN VARIABLE AT 3KT
OR LESS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM











000
FXUS61 KALY 210531
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT...LOW PRESSURE WAS JUST EAST OF GEORGIAN BAY
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING EAST ALONG THE US CANADIAN
BORDER AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY BACK TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CLOUD COVER HAS
BECOME EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE FA WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE
HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL RETURNS ON RADAR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT
MUCH OF THIS IS EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE SFC...OR VIRGA...
ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS INDICATED BY THE 00Z
ALY SOUNDING MAY LIMIT MUCH RAINFALL FROM OCCURRING OVERNIGHT...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE MID LEVELS
HAVE MOISTENED UP A BIT...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE
PERSISTENT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT A BIT
FARTHER S AND E...ESP TOWARD DAYBREAK. WILL GENERALLY KEEP POPS IN
THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR SOME LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL
POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND
WARM ADVECTION. HAVE TRENDED MOST AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET
MOS...WITH GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S EXPECTED...WARMEST WITHIN
THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION...WHERE A LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHOULD PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL FORM A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. FOR OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE PRESENT...ESP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE QUITE LIMITED DURING THIS TIME. SO...IT APPEARS
THAT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WOULD BE THE BEST WAY TO
DESCRIBE RAINFALL CHANCES DURING TUESDAY...WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY
EXPERIENCING SOME LONGER STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER IN BETWEEN. IN
FACT...ACROSS SOME SOUTHERN AREAS...A FEW BREAKS OF SUN COULD EVEN
OCCUR AT TIMES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY THE SE
CATSKILLS...WHERE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE INDICATED...AND
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PERSISTENT. FOR TUE NT...AGAIN...OVERALL
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT GREAT...WITH THE MAIN
FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND COAST. WILL KEEP CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS...BUT
AGAIN...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT BE RAINING ALL THE TIME AND IN
ALL AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...ASSUMING SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE
CLOUDS...AND LIMITED PRECIP OCCUR...HAVE SIDED A BIT CLOSER TO THE
WARMER MET MOS FOR TUE MAXES...WITH GENERALLY 55-60 IN VALLEYS...AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR TUE NT...AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BACK INTO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING
PRESSURES TO OUR SOUTH...TEMPS SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOWER/MID
40S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED-THU...MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY JET WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIME...BEFORE SLOWLY PIVOTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WED NT-THU. THE
NOSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET SEEMS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR WED AFTN...BEFORE PIVOTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND LATE WED NT AND THU. LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW LEVEL JET...ALONG WITH STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
295-300 K SURFACES...WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
SHOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT FOR A TIME WED NT-
THU. ALSO...A SECONDARY MAX IN PRECIP IS LIKELY ACROSS UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES MAY OCCUR IN THESE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS...WITH
GENERALLY 0.50-1 INCH IN THE VALLEYS. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT STRONG NE DOWNSLOPING WINDS COULD CREATE MORE DRAMATIC RAIN
SHADOWING IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SOME
AREAS COULD BE AT OR EVEN BELOW THE LOWER END OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED VALLEY RANGES. SO...BANDS OF RAIN ROTATING WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL BECOME MORE
PROMINENT FOR WED-THU...WITH A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN
POSSIBLE...ESP WED NT AND THU AM...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BRIEFLY
ORIENTS ITSELF TOWARD EASTERN NYS/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT WILL BE
QUITE RAW DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH BRISK N/NE WINDS. IN
FACT...SOME GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH COULD OCCUR AT TIMES ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NT. MAX TEMPS ON WED SHOULD ONLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH EVEN COOLER MAXES COULD OCCUR IF STEADIER
RAIN DEVELOPS. THU MAXES SHOULD ONLY REACH 45-50 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS FOR WED
NT/THU AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THINGS START OFF WET BUT QUICKLY TURN DRY AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF
CAPE COD HEADS UP THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...DRAWING WET
WEATHER TO A CLOSE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND PROVIDING FOR A PLEASANT LATE
OCTOBER WEEKEND.  A FEW WESTERN ADIRONDACK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RAPIDLY
MOVING...THOUGH VERY DRY...COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  BY EARLY MONDAY...THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE MADE IT ALL THE WAY TO SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL BE
HARDLY NOTICEABLE DOWN THERE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN MOSTLY THE 45 TO 60 DEGREE
RANGE...BUT WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES MILDER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
EXTENDED.  OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL LOCATIONS...BUT WILL FALL
INTO THE 40S EVERYWHERE.  NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD IN
ALBANY ARE IN THE THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
ENDING 00Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. CEILING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN IN
VFR RANGE AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z...SO WILL MENTION VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF SOME SHOWERS AFFECTING ALL
TAF SITES AFT 18Z SO HAVE PLACED 6SM -SHRA IN THE TAFS AFTER
THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM TONIGHT...THEN VARIABLE AT 3KT
OR LESS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM










000
FXUS61 KBTV 210516
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
116 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT TO
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY LATE TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT, THE REST OF THE
WEEK WILL BE RAINY AND COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 116 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
ONLY ONE MINOR TWEAK. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
IS CAUSING THE RAIN SHOWERS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK TO
MOVE MORE NORTHEAST. HAVE ADJUSTED OUR PRECIPITATION GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANGE AND INCREASED THE AREAL COVERAGE A BIT OF
THE SHOWERS MOVING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT MONDAY...THE ACTION REALLY GETS CRANKING FOR
LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROF OFF TO THE WEST WILL
DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND ULTIMATELY CUT-OFF DOWN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
SET UP SHOP JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AND AS WE KNOW, CUT-OFFS
ARE "CUT-OFF" FROM THE MAIN FLOW, SO THAT MEANS THEY DON`T MOVE
VERY QUICKLY.

12Z GUIDANCE STILL ALL SHOWING THIS SAME SCENARIO, SO CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT WE`VE GOT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET CONDITIONS.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED AND BRING IN COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE -- RESULTING IN A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY (AND BEYOND).

TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS UP. THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.
AS THE TROUGH EVOLVES INTO A CUT-OFF LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND, THINGS WILL GET MORE
INTERESTING.

EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND STRENGTHEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ULTIMATELY WE`LL BE SEEING 850MB WINDS OUT OF
THE EAST AROUND 30-40KTS AND THIS WILL BRING IN ALL THE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE, RESULTING IN A PERSISTANT RAIN, LIKELY OCCASIONAL
MODERATE TO HEAVY ON WEDNESDAY. IT`S JUST GOING TO BE DOWNRIGHT
MISERABLE (CHILLY AND WET).

TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
LOCATIONS FOR HEAVIEST AMOUNTS. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW, STILL FEEL
THE FEELINGS BY PREVIOUS FORECASTERS THAT WE SHOULD SEE AN
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
ADIRONDACKS MAKES SENSE. THERE SHOULD BE SHADOWING BY THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS TO KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST, THE VERY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL START TO TURN NORTHEAST
AND EVENTUALLY NORTH. A NORTHERLY FLOW COMING DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY IS A CONVERGENT FLOW, AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE
THE RAINFALL HERE IN THE VALLEY LATE ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN MEAN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
CHANGING MUCH FROM DAY TO NIGHT. GUIDANCE BLENDS STILL SEEM TO BE
A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT, SO TRIED MY BEST
TO MAKE THE DIURNAL DIFFERENCE SMALLER. EVEN SO, I THINK MY FINAL
NUMBERS ARE STILL A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT.
BOTTOM LINE, 40S AT NIGHT AND SOME 50S DURING THE DAY (IF WE ARE
LUCKY).

OH YEAH, FOR THE WINTER WEATHER FANS OUT THERE -- SORRY, IT`S
LOOKING JUST WET, NOT WHITE. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE UP AROUND &
OVER 6,000FT. BESIDES, EVEN IF IT DID SNOW, IT`S STILL EARLY IN
THE SEASON AND WOULD LIKELY NOT HANG AROUND THAT LONG -- SO IT
WOULD JUST BE WASTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO PULL
SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND MARITIMES
BY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. DEFORMATIONAL FORCING CONTINUES TO
BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE MODERATE MID LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
UNDERCUT BY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLIES. THIS VEERING/WARM THERMAL
ADVECTIVE PROFILE OFTEN FAVORS MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE I`LL MAINTAIN
HIGH POPS AND HEAVIEST QPF.

STEADIER PRECIPITATION/RAINFALL THEN SLOWLY TAPERS TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS DEFORMATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT.
HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF
ADDITIONAL TAIL END SHORTWAVE ENERGY IT WON`T COMPLETELY DRY OUT UNTIL
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
FINALLY MAKES SOME INROADS EASTWARD. CONTINUED PRIOR TRENDS IN REGARD
TO TEMPS BY UNDERCUTTING MOS HIGHS AND NARROWING MEAN DIURNAL RANGES
DURING THU/FRI TIME FRAME WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION/NORTHERLY FLOW...
GENERALLY OFFERING A RATHER HIGH DEGREE OF HOMOGENEITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION...INCLUDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VALUES FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD
RANGE THROUGH THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCALES THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THEREAFTER...READINGS MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS THERMAL ADVECTIVE
PROCESSES WEAKEN AND PROGS OF AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUN GRADUALLY
INCREASE...ESP BY NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...SLOWLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING WILL OCCUR
AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS OF KMSS/KSLK...THEN SPREAD TO REST OF
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL
THEN BE THE RULE DURING TUESDAY. CIGS MAINLY VFR THROUGH
06Z...THEN TRENDING TO MVFR AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS AFTER 06Z AND
AFTER 12Z AT VERMONT TAF SITES. KMSS WILL SEE CIGS LOWER TO IFR
DURING TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MOSTLY EASTERLY TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BECOME NORTHEAST AT KMSS AT 10-15
KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI ONWARD...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...RJS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 210516
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
116 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT TO
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY LATE TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT, THE REST OF THE
WEEK WILL BE RAINY AND COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 116 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
ONLY ONE MINOR TWEAK. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
IS CAUSING THE RAIN SHOWERS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK TO
MOVE MORE NORTHEAST. HAVE ADJUSTED OUR PRECIPITATION GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANGE AND INCREASED THE AREAL COVERAGE A BIT OF
THE SHOWERS MOVING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT MONDAY...THE ACTION REALLY GETS CRANKING FOR
LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROF OFF TO THE WEST WILL
DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND ULTIMATELY CUT-OFF DOWN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
SET UP SHOP JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AND AS WE KNOW, CUT-OFFS
ARE "CUT-OFF" FROM THE MAIN FLOW, SO THAT MEANS THEY DON`T MOVE
VERY QUICKLY.

12Z GUIDANCE STILL ALL SHOWING THIS SAME SCENARIO, SO CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT WE`VE GOT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET CONDITIONS.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED AND BRING IN COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE -- RESULTING IN A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY (AND BEYOND).

TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS UP. THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.
AS THE TROUGH EVOLVES INTO A CUT-OFF LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND, THINGS WILL GET MORE
INTERESTING.

EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND STRENGTHEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ULTIMATELY WE`LL BE SEEING 850MB WINDS OUT OF
THE EAST AROUND 30-40KTS AND THIS WILL BRING IN ALL THE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE, RESULTING IN A PERSISTANT RAIN, LIKELY OCCASIONAL
MODERATE TO HEAVY ON WEDNESDAY. IT`S JUST GOING TO BE DOWNRIGHT
MISERABLE (CHILLY AND WET).

TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
LOCATIONS FOR HEAVIEST AMOUNTS. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW, STILL FEEL
THE FEELINGS BY PREVIOUS FORECASTERS THAT WE SHOULD SEE AN
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
ADIRONDACKS MAKES SENSE. THERE SHOULD BE SHADOWING BY THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS TO KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST, THE VERY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL START TO TURN NORTHEAST
AND EVENTUALLY NORTH. A NORTHERLY FLOW COMING DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY IS A CONVERGENT FLOW, AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE
THE RAINFALL HERE IN THE VALLEY LATE ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN MEAN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
CHANGING MUCH FROM DAY TO NIGHT. GUIDANCE BLENDS STILL SEEM TO BE
A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT, SO TRIED MY BEST
TO MAKE THE DIURNAL DIFFERENCE SMALLER. EVEN SO, I THINK MY FINAL
NUMBERS ARE STILL A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT.
BOTTOM LINE, 40S AT NIGHT AND SOME 50S DURING THE DAY (IF WE ARE
LUCKY).

OH YEAH, FOR THE WINTER WEATHER FANS OUT THERE -- SORRY, IT`S
LOOKING JUST WET, NOT WHITE. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE UP AROUND &
OVER 6,000FT. BESIDES, EVEN IF IT DID SNOW, IT`S STILL EARLY IN
THE SEASON AND WOULD LIKELY NOT HANG AROUND THAT LONG -- SO IT
WOULD JUST BE WASTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO PULL
SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND MARITIMES
BY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. DEFORMATIONAL FORCING CONTINUES TO
BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE MODERATE MID LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
UNDERCUT BY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLIES. THIS VEERING/WARM THERMAL
ADVECTIVE PROFILE OFTEN FAVORS MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE I`LL MAINTAIN
HIGH POPS AND HEAVIEST QPF.

STEADIER PRECIPITATION/RAINFALL THEN SLOWLY TAPERS TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS DEFORMATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT.
HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF
ADDITIONAL TAIL END SHORTWAVE ENERGY IT WON`T COMPLETELY DRY OUT UNTIL
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
FINALLY MAKES SOME INROADS EASTWARD. CONTINUED PRIOR TRENDS IN REGARD
TO TEMPS BY UNDERCUTTING MOS HIGHS AND NARROWING MEAN DIURNAL RANGES
DURING THU/FRI TIME FRAME WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION/NORTHERLY FLOW...
GENERALLY OFFERING A RATHER HIGH DEGREE OF HOMOGENEITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION...INCLUDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VALUES FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD
RANGE THROUGH THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCALES THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THEREAFTER...READINGS MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS THERMAL ADVECTIVE
PROCESSES WEAKEN AND PROGS OF AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUN GRADUALLY
INCREASE...ESP BY NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...SLOWLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING WILL OCCUR
AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS OF KMSS/KSLK...THEN SPREAD TO REST OF
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL
THEN BE THE RULE DURING TUESDAY. CIGS MAINLY VFR THROUGH
06Z...THEN TRENDING TO MVFR AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS AFTER 06Z AND
AFTER 12Z AT VERMONT TAF SITES. KMSS WILL SEE CIGS LOWER TO IFR
DURING TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MOSTLY EASTERLY TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BECOME NORTHEAST AT KMSS AT 10-15
KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI ONWARD...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...RJS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 210204
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1004 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT TO
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY LATE TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT, THE REST OF THE
WEEK WILL BE RAINY AND COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1003 PM EDT MONDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN NY FROM ONTARIO AND LAKE ONTARIO FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. OVERNIGHT...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPILL INTO VT BUT
MAINLY BE FOCUSED ACROSS ST LWRNC VLY NY RIGHT NOW.

NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (335 PM EDT) CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION, JUST FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT THAT STILL HAVE SOME
SUN. NOT EXPECTING THOSE CLEAR SPOTS TO LAST MUCH LONGER. RADAR
SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN UP ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER, WITH OTHER
SHOWERS FARTHER BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
LAKE ONTARIO. THESE SHOWERS ARE ALSO MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND FAR NORTHERN VERMONT DURING
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAVY RAIN, SO
QPF SHOULD BE 1/10" OR LESS.

CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH. SEEMED LIKE THE
VARIOUS MODEL BLENDS AND MOS GUIDANCE WERE MAKING IT A LITTLE TOO
COOL. LIKED THE LOOK OF THE RAW 2 METER (SURFACE) TEMPERATURES
FROM OUR LOCAL WRF MODELS, SO I LEANED TOWARD THAT OUTPUT. SO
THINKING IN GENERAL LOTS OF 40S. COULD BE A FEW UPPER 30S IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM/EASTERN VERMONT IF THEY STILL HAVE A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS AFTER SUNSET TO ALLOW FOR A QUICK COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT MONDAY...THE ACTION REALLY GETS CRANKING FOR
LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROF OFF TO THE WEST WILL
DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND ULTIMATELY CUT-OFF DOWN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
SET UP SHOP JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AND AS WE KNOW, CUT-OFFS
ARE "CUT-OFF" FROM THE MAIN FLOW, SO THAT MEANS THEY DON`T MOVE
VERY QUICKLY.

12Z GUIDANCE STILL ALL SHOWING THIS SAME SCENARIO, SO CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT WE`VE GOT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET CONDITIONS.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED AND BRING IN COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE -- RESULTING IN A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY (AND BEYOND).

TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS UP. THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.
AS THE TROUGH EVOLVES INTO A CUT-OFF LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND, THINGS WILL GET MORE
INTERESTING.

EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND STRENGTHEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ULTIMATELY WE`LL BE SEEING 850MB WINDS OUT OF
THE EAST AROUND 30-40KTS AND THIS WILL BRING IN ALL THE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE, RESULTING IN A PERSISTANT RAIN, LIKELY OCCASIONAL
MODERATE TO HEAVY ON WEDNESDAY. IT`S JUST GOING TO BE DOWNRIGHT
MISERABLE (CHILLY AND WET).

TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
LOCATIONS FOR HEAVIEST AMOUNTS. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW, STILL FEEL
THE FEELINGS BY PREVIOUS FORECASTERS THAT WE SHOULD SEE AN
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
ADIRONDACKS MAKES SENSE. THERE SHOULD BE SHADOWING BY THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS TO KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST, THE VERY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL START TO TURN NORTHEAST
AND EVENTUALLY NORTH. A NORTHERLY FLOW COMING DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY IS A CONVERGENT FLOW, AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE
THE RAINFALL HERE IN THE VALLEY LATE ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN MEAN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
CHANGING MUCH FROM DAY TO NIGHT. GUIDANCE BLENDS STILL SEEM TO BE
A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT, SO TRIED MY BEST
TO MAKE THE DIURNAL DIFFERENCE SMALLER. EVEN SO, I THINK MY FINAL
NUMBERS ARE STILL A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT.
BOTTOM LINE, 40S AT NIGHT AND SOME 50S DURING THE DAY (IF WE ARE
LUCKY).

OH YEAH, FOR THE WINTER WEATHER FANS OUT THERE -- SORRY, IT`S
LOOKING JUST WET, NOT WHITE. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE UP AROUND &
OVER 6,000FT. BESIDES, EVEN IF IT DID SNOW, IT`S STILL EARLY IN
THE SEASON AND WOULD LIKELY NOT HANG AROUND THAT LONG -- SO IT
WOULD JUST BE WASTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO PULL
SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND MARITIMES
BY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. DEFORMATIONAL FORCING CONTINUES TO
BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FCST AREA WHERE MODERATE MID LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
UNDERCUT BY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLIES. THIS VEERING/WARM THERMAL
ADVECTIVE PROFILE OFTEN FAVORS MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER PCPN
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE I`LL MAINTAIN
HIGH POPS AND HEAVIEST QPF.

STEADIER PCPN/RAFL THEN SLOWLY TAPERS TO SCT SHOWERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS DEFORMATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT. HOWEVER...WITH
CONTINUED MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF ADDL TAIL END
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IT WON`T COMPLETELY DRY OUT UNTIL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FINALLY
MAKES SOME INROADS EASTWARD. CONTINUED PRIOR TRENDS IN REGARD TO
TEMPS BY UNDERCUTTING MOS HIGHS AND NARROWING MEAN DIURNAL RANGES
DURING THU/FRI TIME FRAME WITH THE CLOUDS/PCPN/NORTHERLY
FLOW...GENERALLY OFFERING A RATHER HIGH DEGREE OF HOMOGENEITY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION...INCLUDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VALUES FOR THE
MOST PART SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCALES
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. THEREAFTER...READINGS MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS
THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES WEAKEN AND PROGS OF AT LEAST SOME
PARTIAL SUN GRADUALLY INCREASE...ESP BY NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...SLOWLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING WILL OCCUR
AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS OF KMSS/KSLK...THEN SPREAD TO REST OF
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL
THEN BE THE RULE DURING TUESDAY. CIGS MAINLY VFR THROUGH
06Z...THEN TRENDING TO MVFR AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS AFTER 06Z AND
AFTER 12Z AT VERMONT TAF SITES. KMSS WILL SEE CIGS LOWER TO IFR
DURING TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MOSTLY EASTERLY TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BECOME NORTHEAST AT KMSS AT 10-15
KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI ONWARD...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH/SLW
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...RJS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 210204
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1004 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT TO
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY LATE TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT, THE REST OF THE
WEEK WILL BE RAINY AND COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1003 PM EDT MONDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN NY FROM ONTARIO AND LAKE ONTARIO FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. OVERNIGHT...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPILL INTO VT BUT
MAINLY BE FOCUSED ACROSS ST LWRNC VLY NY RIGHT NOW.

NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (335 PM EDT) CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION, JUST FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT THAT STILL HAVE SOME
SUN. NOT EXPECTING THOSE CLEAR SPOTS TO LAST MUCH LONGER. RADAR
SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN UP ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER, WITH OTHER
SHOWERS FARTHER BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
LAKE ONTARIO. THESE SHOWERS ARE ALSO MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND FAR NORTHERN VERMONT DURING
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAVY RAIN, SO
QPF SHOULD BE 1/10" OR LESS.

CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH. SEEMED LIKE THE
VARIOUS MODEL BLENDS AND MOS GUIDANCE WERE MAKING IT A LITTLE TOO
COOL. LIKED THE LOOK OF THE RAW 2 METER (SURFACE) TEMPERATURES
FROM OUR LOCAL WRF MODELS, SO I LEANED TOWARD THAT OUTPUT. SO
THINKING IN GENERAL LOTS OF 40S. COULD BE A FEW UPPER 30S IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM/EASTERN VERMONT IF THEY STILL HAVE A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS AFTER SUNSET TO ALLOW FOR A QUICK COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT MONDAY...THE ACTION REALLY GETS CRANKING FOR
LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROF OFF TO THE WEST WILL
DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND ULTIMATELY CUT-OFF DOWN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
SET UP SHOP JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AND AS WE KNOW, CUT-OFFS
ARE "CUT-OFF" FROM THE MAIN FLOW, SO THAT MEANS THEY DON`T MOVE
VERY QUICKLY.

12Z GUIDANCE STILL ALL SHOWING THIS SAME SCENARIO, SO CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT WE`VE GOT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET CONDITIONS.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED AND BRING IN COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE -- RESULTING IN A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY (AND BEYOND).

TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS UP. THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.
AS THE TROUGH EVOLVES INTO A CUT-OFF LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND, THINGS WILL GET MORE
INTERESTING.

EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND STRENGTHEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ULTIMATELY WE`LL BE SEEING 850MB WINDS OUT OF
THE EAST AROUND 30-40KTS AND THIS WILL BRING IN ALL THE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE, RESULTING IN A PERSISTANT RAIN, LIKELY OCCASIONAL
MODERATE TO HEAVY ON WEDNESDAY. IT`S JUST GOING TO BE DOWNRIGHT
MISERABLE (CHILLY AND WET).

TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
LOCATIONS FOR HEAVIEST AMOUNTS. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW, STILL FEEL
THE FEELINGS BY PREVIOUS FORECASTERS THAT WE SHOULD SEE AN
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
ADIRONDACKS MAKES SENSE. THERE SHOULD BE SHADOWING BY THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS TO KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST, THE VERY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL START TO TURN NORTHEAST
AND EVENTUALLY NORTH. A NORTHERLY FLOW COMING DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY IS A CONVERGENT FLOW, AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE
THE RAINFALL HERE IN THE VALLEY LATE ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN MEAN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
CHANGING MUCH FROM DAY TO NIGHT. GUIDANCE BLENDS STILL SEEM TO BE
A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT, SO TRIED MY BEST
TO MAKE THE DIURNAL DIFFERENCE SMALLER. EVEN SO, I THINK MY FINAL
NUMBERS ARE STILL A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT.
BOTTOM LINE, 40S AT NIGHT AND SOME 50S DURING THE DAY (IF WE ARE
LUCKY).

OH YEAH, FOR THE WINTER WEATHER FANS OUT THERE -- SORRY, IT`S
LOOKING JUST WET, NOT WHITE. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE UP AROUND &
OVER 6,000FT. BESIDES, EVEN IF IT DID SNOW, IT`S STILL EARLY IN
THE SEASON AND WOULD LIKELY NOT HANG AROUND THAT LONG -- SO IT
WOULD JUST BE WASTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO PULL
SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND MARITIMES
BY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. DEFORMATIONAL FORCING CONTINUES TO
BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FCST AREA WHERE MODERATE MID LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
UNDERCUT BY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLIES. THIS VEERING/WARM THERMAL
ADVECTIVE PROFILE OFTEN FAVORS MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER PCPN
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE I`LL MAINTAIN
HIGH POPS AND HEAVIEST QPF.

STEADIER PCPN/RAFL THEN SLOWLY TAPERS TO SCT SHOWERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS DEFORMATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT. HOWEVER...WITH
CONTINUED MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF ADDL TAIL END
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IT WON`T COMPLETELY DRY OUT UNTIL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FINALLY
MAKES SOME INROADS EASTWARD. CONTINUED PRIOR TRENDS IN REGARD TO
TEMPS BY UNDERCUTTING MOS HIGHS AND NARROWING MEAN DIURNAL RANGES
DURING THU/FRI TIME FRAME WITH THE CLOUDS/PCPN/NORTHERLY
FLOW...GENERALLY OFFERING A RATHER HIGH DEGREE OF HOMOGENEITY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION...INCLUDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VALUES FOR THE
MOST PART SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCALES
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. THEREAFTER...READINGS MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS
THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES WEAKEN AND PROGS OF AT LEAST SOME
PARTIAL SUN GRADUALLY INCREASE...ESP BY NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...SLOWLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING WILL OCCUR
AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS OF KMSS/KSLK...THEN SPREAD TO REST OF
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL
THEN BE THE RULE DURING TUESDAY. CIGS MAINLY VFR THROUGH
06Z...THEN TRENDING TO MVFR AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS AFTER 06Z AND
AFTER 12Z AT VERMONT TAF SITES. KMSS WILL SEE CIGS LOWER TO IFR
DURING TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MOSTLY EASTERLY TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BECOME NORTHEAST AT KMSS AT 10-15
KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI ONWARD...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH/SLW
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...RJS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 210204
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1004 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT TO
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY LATE TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT, THE REST OF THE
WEEK WILL BE RAINY AND COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1003 PM EDT MONDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN NY FROM ONTARIO AND LAKE ONTARIO FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. OVERNIGHT...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPILL INTO VT BUT
MAINLY BE FOCUSED ACROSS ST LWRNC VLY NY RIGHT NOW.

NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (335 PM EDT) CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION, JUST FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT THAT STILL HAVE SOME
SUN. NOT EXPECTING THOSE CLEAR SPOTS TO LAST MUCH LONGER. RADAR
SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN UP ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER, WITH OTHER
SHOWERS FARTHER BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
LAKE ONTARIO. THESE SHOWERS ARE ALSO MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND FAR NORTHERN VERMONT DURING
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAVY RAIN, SO
QPF SHOULD BE 1/10" OR LESS.

CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH. SEEMED LIKE THE
VARIOUS MODEL BLENDS AND MOS GUIDANCE WERE MAKING IT A LITTLE TOO
COOL. LIKED THE LOOK OF THE RAW 2 METER (SURFACE) TEMPERATURES
FROM OUR LOCAL WRF MODELS, SO I LEANED TOWARD THAT OUTPUT. SO
THINKING IN GENERAL LOTS OF 40S. COULD BE A FEW UPPER 30S IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM/EASTERN VERMONT IF THEY STILL HAVE A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS AFTER SUNSET TO ALLOW FOR A QUICK COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT MONDAY...THE ACTION REALLY GETS CRANKING FOR
LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROF OFF TO THE WEST WILL
DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND ULTIMATELY CUT-OFF DOWN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
SET UP SHOP JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AND AS WE KNOW, CUT-OFFS
ARE "CUT-OFF" FROM THE MAIN FLOW, SO THAT MEANS THEY DON`T MOVE
VERY QUICKLY.

12Z GUIDANCE STILL ALL SHOWING THIS SAME SCENARIO, SO CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT WE`VE GOT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET CONDITIONS.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED AND BRING IN COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE -- RESULTING IN A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY (AND BEYOND).

TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS UP. THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.
AS THE TROUGH EVOLVES INTO A CUT-OFF LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND, THINGS WILL GET MORE
INTERESTING.

EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND STRENGTHEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ULTIMATELY WE`LL BE SEEING 850MB WINDS OUT OF
THE EAST AROUND 30-40KTS AND THIS WILL BRING IN ALL THE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE, RESULTING IN A PERSISTANT RAIN, LIKELY OCCASIONAL
MODERATE TO HEAVY ON WEDNESDAY. IT`S JUST GOING TO BE DOWNRIGHT
MISERABLE (CHILLY AND WET).

TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
LOCATIONS FOR HEAVIEST AMOUNTS. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW, STILL FEEL
THE FEELINGS BY PREVIOUS FORECASTERS THAT WE SHOULD SEE AN
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
ADIRONDACKS MAKES SENSE. THERE SHOULD BE SHADOWING BY THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS TO KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST, THE VERY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL START TO TURN NORTHEAST
AND EVENTUALLY NORTH. A NORTHERLY FLOW COMING DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY IS A CONVERGENT FLOW, AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE
THE RAINFALL HERE IN THE VALLEY LATE ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN MEAN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
CHANGING MUCH FROM DAY TO NIGHT. GUIDANCE BLENDS STILL SEEM TO BE
A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT, SO TRIED MY BEST
TO MAKE THE DIURNAL DIFFERENCE SMALLER. EVEN SO, I THINK MY FINAL
NUMBERS ARE STILL A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT.
BOTTOM LINE, 40S AT NIGHT AND SOME 50S DURING THE DAY (IF WE ARE
LUCKY).

OH YEAH, FOR THE WINTER WEATHER FANS OUT THERE -- SORRY, IT`S
LOOKING JUST WET, NOT WHITE. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE UP AROUND &
OVER 6,000FT. BESIDES, EVEN IF IT DID SNOW, IT`S STILL EARLY IN
THE SEASON AND WOULD LIKELY NOT HANG AROUND THAT LONG -- SO IT
WOULD JUST BE WASTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO PULL
SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND MARITIMES
BY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. DEFORMATIONAL FORCING CONTINUES TO
BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FCST AREA WHERE MODERATE MID LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
UNDERCUT BY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLIES. THIS VEERING/WARM THERMAL
ADVECTIVE PROFILE OFTEN FAVORS MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER PCPN
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE I`LL MAINTAIN
HIGH POPS AND HEAVIEST QPF.

STEADIER PCPN/RAFL THEN SLOWLY TAPERS TO SCT SHOWERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS DEFORMATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT. HOWEVER...WITH
CONTINUED MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF ADDL TAIL END
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IT WON`T COMPLETELY DRY OUT UNTIL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FINALLY
MAKES SOME INROADS EASTWARD. CONTINUED PRIOR TRENDS IN REGARD TO
TEMPS BY UNDERCUTTING MOS HIGHS AND NARROWING MEAN DIURNAL RANGES
DURING THU/FRI TIME FRAME WITH THE CLOUDS/PCPN/NORTHERLY
FLOW...GENERALLY OFFERING A RATHER HIGH DEGREE OF HOMOGENEITY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION...INCLUDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VALUES FOR THE
MOST PART SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCALES
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. THEREAFTER...READINGS MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS
THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES WEAKEN AND PROGS OF AT LEAST SOME
PARTIAL SUN GRADUALLY INCREASE...ESP BY NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...SLOWLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING WILL OCCUR
AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS OF KMSS/KSLK...THEN SPREAD TO REST OF
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL
THEN BE THE RULE DURING TUESDAY. CIGS MAINLY VFR THROUGH
06Z...THEN TRENDING TO MVFR AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS AFTER 06Z AND
AFTER 12Z AT VERMONT TAF SITES. KMSS WILL SEE CIGS LOWER TO IFR
DURING TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MOSTLY EASTERLY TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BECOME NORTHEAST AT KMSS AT 10-15
KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI ONWARD...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH/SLW
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...RJS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 210204
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1004 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT TO
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY LATE TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT, THE REST OF THE
WEEK WILL BE RAINY AND COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1003 PM EDT MONDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN NY FROM ONTARIO AND LAKE ONTARIO FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. OVERNIGHT...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPILL INTO VT BUT
MAINLY BE FOCUSED ACROSS ST LWRNC VLY NY RIGHT NOW.

NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (335 PM EDT) CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION, JUST FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT THAT STILL HAVE SOME
SUN. NOT EXPECTING THOSE CLEAR SPOTS TO LAST MUCH LONGER. RADAR
SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN UP ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER, WITH OTHER
SHOWERS FARTHER BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
LAKE ONTARIO. THESE SHOWERS ARE ALSO MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND FAR NORTHERN VERMONT DURING
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAVY RAIN, SO
QPF SHOULD BE 1/10" OR LESS.

CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH. SEEMED LIKE THE
VARIOUS MODEL BLENDS AND MOS GUIDANCE WERE MAKING IT A LITTLE TOO
COOL. LIKED THE LOOK OF THE RAW 2 METER (SURFACE) TEMPERATURES
FROM OUR LOCAL WRF MODELS, SO I LEANED TOWARD THAT OUTPUT. SO
THINKING IN GENERAL LOTS OF 40S. COULD BE A FEW UPPER 30S IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM/EASTERN VERMONT IF THEY STILL HAVE A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS AFTER SUNSET TO ALLOW FOR A QUICK COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT MONDAY...THE ACTION REALLY GETS CRANKING FOR
LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROF OFF TO THE WEST WILL
DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND ULTIMATELY CUT-OFF DOWN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
SET UP SHOP JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AND AS WE KNOW, CUT-OFFS
ARE "CUT-OFF" FROM THE MAIN FLOW, SO THAT MEANS THEY DON`T MOVE
VERY QUICKLY.

12Z GUIDANCE STILL ALL SHOWING THIS SAME SCENARIO, SO CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT WE`VE GOT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET CONDITIONS.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED AND BRING IN COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE -- RESULTING IN A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY (AND BEYOND).

TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS UP. THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.
AS THE TROUGH EVOLVES INTO A CUT-OFF LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND, THINGS WILL GET MORE
INTERESTING.

EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND STRENGTHEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ULTIMATELY WE`LL BE SEEING 850MB WINDS OUT OF
THE EAST AROUND 30-40KTS AND THIS WILL BRING IN ALL THE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE, RESULTING IN A PERSISTANT RAIN, LIKELY OCCASIONAL
MODERATE TO HEAVY ON WEDNESDAY. IT`S JUST GOING TO BE DOWNRIGHT
MISERABLE (CHILLY AND WET).

TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
LOCATIONS FOR HEAVIEST AMOUNTS. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW, STILL FEEL
THE FEELINGS BY PREVIOUS FORECASTERS THAT WE SHOULD SEE AN
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
ADIRONDACKS MAKES SENSE. THERE SHOULD BE SHADOWING BY THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS TO KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST, THE VERY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL START TO TURN NORTHEAST
AND EVENTUALLY NORTH. A NORTHERLY FLOW COMING DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY IS A CONVERGENT FLOW, AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE
THE RAINFALL HERE IN THE VALLEY LATE ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN MEAN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
CHANGING MUCH FROM DAY TO NIGHT. GUIDANCE BLENDS STILL SEEM TO BE
A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT, SO TRIED MY BEST
TO MAKE THE DIURNAL DIFFERENCE SMALLER. EVEN SO, I THINK MY FINAL
NUMBERS ARE STILL A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT.
BOTTOM LINE, 40S AT NIGHT AND SOME 50S DURING THE DAY (IF WE ARE
LUCKY).

OH YEAH, FOR THE WINTER WEATHER FANS OUT THERE -- SORRY, IT`S
LOOKING JUST WET, NOT WHITE. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE UP AROUND &
OVER 6,000FT. BESIDES, EVEN IF IT DID SNOW, IT`S STILL EARLY IN
THE SEASON AND WOULD LIKELY NOT HANG AROUND THAT LONG -- SO IT
WOULD JUST BE WASTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO PULL
SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND MARITIMES
BY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. DEFORMATIONAL FORCING CONTINUES TO
BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FCST AREA WHERE MODERATE MID LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
UNDERCUT BY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLIES. THIS VEERING/WARM THERMAL
ADVECTIVE PROFILE OFTEN FAVORS MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER PCPN
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE I`LL MAINTAIN
HIGH POPS AND HEAVIEST QPF.

STEADIER PCPN/RAFL THEN SLOWLY TAPERS TO SCT SHOWERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS DEFORMATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT. HOWEVER...WITH
CONTINUED MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF ADDL TAIL END
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IT WON`T COMPLETELY DRY OUT UNTIL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FINALLY
MAKES SOME INROADS EASTWARD. CONTINUED PRIOR TRENDS IN REGARD TO
TEMPS BY UNDERCUTTING MOS HIGHS AND NARROWING MEAN DIURNAL RANGES
DURING THU/FRI TIME FRAME WITH THE CLOUDS/PCPN/NORTHERLY
FLOW...GENERALLY OFFERING A RATHER HIGH DEGREE OF HOMOGENEITY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION...INCLUDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VALUES FOR THE
MOST PART SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCALES
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. THEREAFTER...READINGS MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS
THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES WEAKEN AND PROGS OF AT LEAST SOME
PARTIAL SUN GRADUALLY INCREASE...ESP BY NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...SLOWLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING WILL OCCUR
AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS OF KMSS/KSLK...THEN SPREAD TO REST OF
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL
THEN BE THE RULE DURING TUESDAY. CIGS MAINLY VFR THROUGH
06Z...THEN TRENDING TO MVFR AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS AFTER 06Z AND
AFTER 12Z AT VERMONT TAF SITES. KMSS WILL SEE CIGS LOWER TO IFR
DURING TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MOSTLY EASTERLY TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BECOME NORTHEAST AT KMSS AT 10-15
KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI ONWARD...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH/SLW
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...RJS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 210204
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1004 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT TO
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY LATE TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT, THE REST OF THE
WEEK WILL BE RAINY AND COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1003 PM EDT MONDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN NY FROM ONTARIO AND LAKE ONTARIO FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. OVERNIGHT...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPILL INTO VT BUT
MAINLY BE FOCUSED ACROSS ST LWRNC VLY NY RIGHT NOW.

NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (335 PM EDT) CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION, JUST FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT THAT STILL HAVE SOME
SUN. NOT EXPECTING THOSE CLEAR SPOTS TO LAST MUCH LONGER. RADAR
SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN UP ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER, WITH OTHER
SHOWERS FARTHER BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
LAKE ONTARIO. THESE SHOWERS ARE ALSO MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND FAR NORTHERN VERMONT DURING
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAVY RAIN, SO
QPF SHOULD BE 1/10" OR LESS.

CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH. SEEMED LIKE THE
VARIOUS MODEL BLENDS AND MOS GUIDANCE WERE MAKING IT A LITTLE TOO
COOL. LIKED THE LOOK OF THE RAW 2 METER (SURFACE) TEMPERATURES
FROM OUR LOCAL WRF MODELS, SO I LEANED TOWARD THAT OUTPUT. SO
THINKING IN GENERAL LOTS OF 40S. COULD BE A FEW UPPER 30S IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM/EASTERN VERMONT IF THEY STILL HAVE A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS AFTER SUNSET TO ALLOW FOR A QUICK COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT MONDAY...THE ACTION REALLY GETS CRANKING FOR
LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROF OFF TO THE WEST WILL
DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND ULTIMATELY CUT-OFF DOWN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
SET UP SHOP JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AND AS WE KNOW, CUT-OFFS
ARE "CUT-OFF" FROM THE MAIN FLOW, SO THAT MEANS THEY DON`T MOVE
VERY QUICKLY.

12Z GUIDANCE STILL ALL SHOWING THIS SAME SCENARIO, SO CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT WE`VE GOT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET CONDITIONS.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED AND BRING IN COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE -- RESULTING IN A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY (AND BEYOND).

TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS UP. THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.
AS THE TROUGH EVOLVES INTO A CUT-OFF LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND, THINGS WILL GET MORE
INTERESTING.

EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND STRENGTHEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ULTIMATELY WE`LL BE SEEING 850MB WINDS OUT OF
THE EAST AROUND 30-40KTS AND THIS WILL BRING IN ALL THE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE, RESULTING IN A PERSISTANT RAIN, LIKELY OCCASIONAL
MODERATE TO HEAVY ON WEDNESDAY. IT`S JUST GOING TO BE DOWNRIGHT
MISERABLE (CHILLY AND WET).

TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
LOCATIONS FOR HEAVIEST AMOUNTS. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW, STILL FEEL
THE FEELINGS BY PREVIOUS FORECASTERS THAT WE SHOULD SEE AN
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
ADIRONDACKS MAKES SENSE. THERE SHOULD BE SHADOWING BY THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS TO KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST, THE VERY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL START TO TURN NORTHEAST
AND EVENTUALLY NORTH. A NORTHERLY FLOW COMING DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY IS A CONVERGENT FLOW, AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE
THE RAINFALL HERE IN THE VALLEY LATE ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN MEAN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
CHANGING MUCH FROM DAY TO NIGHT. GUIDANCE BLENDS STILL SEEM TO BE
A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT, SO TRIED MY BEST
TO MAKE THE DIURNAL DIFFERENCE SMALLER. EVEN SO, I THINK MY FINAL
NUMBERS ARE STILL A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT.
BOTTOM LINE, 40S AT NIGHT AND SOME 50S DURING THE DAY (IF WE ARE
LUCKY).

OH YEAH, FOR THE WINTER WEATHER FANS OUT THERE -- SORRY, IT`S
LOOKING JUST WET, NOT WHITE. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE UP AROUND &
OVER 6,000FT. BESIDES, EVEN IF IT DID SNOW, IT`S STILL EARLY IN
THE SEASON AND WOULD LIKELY NOT HANG AROUND THAT LONG -- SO IT
WOULD JUST BE WASTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO PULL
SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND MARITIMES
BY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. DEFORMATIONAL FORCING CONTINUES TO
BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FCST AREA WHERE MODERATE MID LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
UNDERCUT BY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLIES. THIS VEERING/WARM THERMAL
ADVECTIVE PROFILE OFTEN FAVORS MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER PCPN
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE I`LL MAINTAIN
HIGH POPS AND HEAVIEST QPF.

STEADIER PCPN/RAFL THEN SLOWLY TAPERS TO SCT SHOWERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS DEFORMATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT. HOWEVER...WITH
CONTINUED MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF ADDL TAIL END
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IT WON`T COMPLETELY DRY OUT UNTIL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FINALLY
MAKES SOME INROADS EASTWARD. CONTINUED PRIOR TRENDS IN REGARD TO
TEMPS BY UNDERCUTTING MOS HIGHS AND NARROWING MEAN DIURNAL RANGES
DURING THU/FRI TIME FRAME WITH THE CLOUDS/PCPN/NORTHERLY
FLOW...GENERALLY OFFERING A RATHER HIGH DEGREE OF HOMOGENEITY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION...INCLUDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VALUES FOR THE
MOST PART SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCALES
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. THEREAFTER...READINGS MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS
THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES WEAKEN AND PROGS OF AT LEAST SOME
PARTIAL SUN GRADUALLY INCREASE...ESP BY NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...SLOWLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING WILL OCCUR
AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS OF KMSS/KSLK...THEN SPREAD TO REST OF
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL
THEN BE THE RULE DURING TUESDAY. CIGS MAINLY VFR THROUGH
06Z...THEN TRENDING TO MVFR AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS AFTER 06Z AND
AFTER 12Z AT VERMONT TAF SITES. KMSS WILL SEE CIGS LOWER TO IFR
DURING TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MOSTLY EASTERLY TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BECOME NORTHEAST AT KMSS AT 10-15
KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI ONWARD...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH/SLW
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...RJS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 210204
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1004 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT TO
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY LATE TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT, THE REST OF THE
WEEK WILL BE RAINY AND COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1003 PM EDT MONDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN NY FROM ONTARIO AND LAKE ONTARIO FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. OVERNIGHT...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPILL INTO VT BUT
MAINLY BE FOCUSED ACROSS ST LWRNC VLY NY RIGHT NOW.

NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (335 PM EDT) CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION, JUST FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT THAT STILL HAVE SOME
SUN. NOT EXPECTING THOSE CLEAR SPOTS TO LAST MUCH LONGER. RADAR
SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN UP ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER, WITH OTHER
SHOWERS FARTHER BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
LAKE ONTARIO. THESE SHOWERS ARE ALSO MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND FAR NORTHERN VERMONT DURING
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAVY RAIN, SO
QPF SHOULD BE 1/10" OR LESS.

CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH. SEEMED LIKE THE
VARIOUS MODEL BLENDS AND MOS GUIDANCE WERE MAKING IT A LITTLE TOO
COOL. LIKED THE LOOK OF THE RAW 2 METER (SURFACE) TEMPERATURES
FROM OUR LOCAL WRF MODELS, SO I LEANED TOWARD THAT OUTPUT. SO
THINKING IN GENERAL LOTS OF 40S. COULD BE A FEW UPPER 30S IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM/EASTERN VERMONT IF THEY STILL HAVE A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS AFTER SUNSET TO ALLOW FOR A QUICK COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT MONDAY...THE ACTION REALLY GETS CRANKING FOR
LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROF OFF TO THE WEST WILL
DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND ULTIMATELY CUT-OFF DOWN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
SET UP SHOP JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AND AS WE KNOW, CUT-OFFS
ARE "CUT-OFF" FROM THE MAIN FLOW, SO THAT MEANS THEY DON`T MOVE
VERY QUICKLY.

12Z GUIDANCE STILL ALL SHOWING THIS SAME SCENARIO, SO CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT WE`VE GOT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET CONDITIONS.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED AND BRING IN COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE -- RESULTING IN A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY (AND BEYOND).

TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS UP. THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.
AS THE TROUGH EVOLVES INTO A CUT-OFF LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND, THINGS WILL GET MORE
INTERESTING.

EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND STRENGTHEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ULTIMATELY WE`LL BE SEEING 850MB WINDS OUT OF
THE EAST AROUND 30-40KTS AND THIS WILL BRING IN ALL THE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE, RESULTING IN A PERSISTANT RAIN, LIKELY OCCASIONAL
MODERATE TO HEAVY ON WEDNESDAY. IT`S JUST GOING TO BE DOWNRIGHT
MISERABLE (CHILLY AND WET).

TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
LOCATIONS FOR HEAVIEST AMOUNTS. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW, STILL FEEL
THE FEELINGS BY PREVIOUS FORECASTERS THAT WE SHOULD SEE AN
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
ADIRONDACKS MAKES SENSE. THERE SHOULD BE SHADOWING BY THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS TO KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST, THE VERY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL START TO TURN NORTHEAST
AND EVENTUALLY NORTH. A NORTHERLY FLOW COMING DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY IS A CONVERGENT FLOW, AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE
THE RAINFALL HERE IN THE VALLEY LATE ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN MEAN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
CHANGING MUCH FROM DAY TO NIGHT. GUIDANCE BLENDS STILL SEEM TO BE
A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT, SO TRIED MY BEST
TO MAKE THE DIURNAL DIFFERENCE SMALLER. EVEN SO, I THINK MY FINAL
NUMBERS ARE STILL A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT.
BOTTOM LINE, 40S AT NIGHT AND SOME 50S DURING THE DAY (IF WE ARE
LUCKY).

OH YEAH, FOR THE WINTER WEATHER FANS OUT THERE -- SORRY, IT`S
LOOKING JUST WET, NOT WHITE. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE UP AROUND &
OVER 6,000FT. BESIDES, EVEN IF IT DID SNOW, IT`S STILL EARLY IN
THE SEASON AND WOULD LIKELY NOT HANG AROUND THAT LONG -- SO IT
WOULD JUST BE WASTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO PULL
SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND MARITIMES
BY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. DEFORMATIONAL FORCING CONTINUES TO
BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FCST AREA WHERE MODERATE MID LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
UNDERCUT BY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLIES. THIS VEERING/WARM THERMAL
ADVECTIVE PROFILE OFTEN FAVORS MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER PCPN
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE I`LL MAINTAIN
HIGH POPS AND HEAVIEST QPF.

STEADIER PCPN/RAFL THEN SLOWLY TAPERS TO SCT SHOWERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS DEFORMATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT. HOWEVER...WITH
CONTINUED MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF ADDL TAIL END
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IT WON`T COMPLETELY DRY OUT UNTIL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FINALLY
MAKES SOME INROADS EASTWARD. CONTINUED PRIOR TRENDS IN REGARD TO
TEMPS BY UNDERCUTTING MOS HIGHS AND NARROWING MEAN DIURNAL RANGES
DURING THU/FRI TIME FRAME WITH THE CLOUDS/PCPN/NORTHERLY
FLOW...GENERALLY OFFERING A RATHER HIGH DEGREE OF HOMOGENEITY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION...INCLUDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VALUES FOR THE
MOST PART SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCALES
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. THEREAFTER...READINGS MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS
THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES WEAKEN AND PROGS OF AT LEAST SOME
PARTIAL SUN GRADUALLY INCREASE...ESP BY NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...SLOWLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING WILL OCCUR
AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS OF KMSS/KSLK...THEN SPREAD TO REST OF
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL
THEN BE THE RULE DURING TUESDAY. CIGS MAINLY VFR THROUGH
06Z...THEN TRENDING TO MVFR AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS AFTER 06Z AND
AFTER 12Z AT VERMONT TAF SITES. KMSS WILL SEE CIGS LOWER TO IFR
DURING TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MOSTLY EASTERLY TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BECOME NORTHEAST AT KMSS AT 10-15
KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI ONWARD...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH/SLW
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...RJS






000
FXUS61 KALY 210150
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
950 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT...LOW PRESSURE WAS JUST EAST OF GEORGIAN BAY
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING EAST ALONG THE US CANADIAN
BORDER AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY BACK TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CLOUD COVER HAS
BECOME EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE FA WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
THERE HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...BUT MOST OF THIS IS EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE
SFC...OR VIRGA. WE HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF A FEW LOCATIONS
RECEIVING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN...BUT IT MOST AREAS
THUS FAR THE RADAR RETURNS HAVE ONLY RESULTED IN SPRINKLES.


IT STILL APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS INDICATED BY THE 00Z
ALY SOUNDING MAY LIMIT MUCH RAINFALL FROM OCCURRING
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE
MID LEVELS WILL HAVE MOISTENED UP A BIT...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
BE MORE PERSISTENT. SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR LATER
TONIGHT A BIT FARTHER S AND E...ESP TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHEN SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. WILL GENERALLY KEEP POPS IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST TOWARD DAYBREAK...EXCEPT FOR SOME LIKELY
POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND
WARM ADVECTION. HAVE TRENDED MOST AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET
MOS...WITH GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S EXPECTED...WARMEST WITHIN
THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION...WHERE A LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHOULD PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL FORM A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. FOR OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE PRESENT...ESP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE QUITE LIMITED DURING THIS TIME. SO...IT APPEARS
THAT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WOULD BE THE BEST WAY TO
DESCRIBE RAINFALL CHANCES DURING TUESDAY...WITH SOME AREAS
POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING SOME LONGER STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER IN BETWEEN.
IN FACT...ACROSS SOME SOUTHERN AREAS...A FEW BREAKS OF SUN COULD
EVEN OCCUR AT TIMES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY THE
SE CATSKILLS...WHERE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE
INDICATED...AND RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PERSISTENT. FOR TUE
NT...AGAIN...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT
GREAT...WITH THE MAIN FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINING ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND COAST. WILL KEEP
CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS...BUT AGAIN...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT
BE RAINING ALL THE TIME AND IN ALL AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...ASSUMING
SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS...AND LIMITED PRECIP OCCUR...HAVE
SIDED A BIT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS FOR TUE MAXES...WITH
GENERALLY 55-60 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR TUE NT...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BACK
INTO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING PRESSURES TO OUR SOUTH...TEMPS
SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED-THU...MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY JET WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIME...BEFORE SLOWLY PIVOTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WED NT-THU. THE
NOSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET SEEMS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR WED AFTN...BEFORE PIVOTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND LATE WED NT AND THU. LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW LEVEL JET...ALONG WITH STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
295-300 K SURFACES...WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
SHOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT FOR A TIME WED NT-
THU. ALSO...A SECONDARY MAX IN PRECIP IS LIKELY ACROSS UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES MAY OCCUR IN THESE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS...WITH
GENERALLY 0.50-1 INCH IN THE VALLEYS. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT STRONG NE DOWNSLOPING WINDS COULD CREATE MORE DRAMATIC RAIN
SHADOWING IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SOME
AREAS COULD BE AT OR EVEN BELOW THE LOWER END OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED VALLEY RANGES. SO...BANDS OF RAIN ROTATING WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL BECOME MORE
PROMINENT FOR WED-THU...WITH A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN
POSSIBLE...ESP WED NT AND THU AM...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BRIEFLY
ORIENTS ITSELF TOWARD EASTERN NYS/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT WILL BE
QUITE RAW DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH BRISK N/NE WINDS. IN
FACT...SOME GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH COULD OCCUR AT TIMES ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NT. MAX TEMPS ON WED SHOULD ONLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH EVEN COOLER MAXES COULD OCCUR IF STEADIER
RAIN DEVELOPS. THU MAXES SHOULD ONLY REACH 45-50 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS FOR WED
NT/THU AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THINGS START OFF WET BUT QUICKLY TURN DRY AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF
CAPE COD HEADS UP THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...DRAWING WET
WEATHER TO A CLOSE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND PROVIDING FOR A PLEASANT LATE
OCTOBER WEEKEND.  A FEW WESTERN ADIRONDACK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RAPIDLY
MOVING...THOUGH VERY DRY...COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  BY EARLY MONDAY...THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE MADE IT ALL THE WAY TO SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL BE
HARDLY NOTICEABLE DOWN THERE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN MOSTLY THE 45 TO 60 DEGREE
RANGE...BUT WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES MILDER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
EXTENDED.  OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL LOCATIONS...BUT WILL FALL INTO
THE 40S EVERYWHERE.  NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD IN
ALBANY ARE IN THE THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
ENDING 00Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. CEILING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN IN
VFR RANGE AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z...SO WILL MENTION VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF SOME SHOWERS AFFECTING ALL
TAF SITES AFT 18Z SO HAVE PLACED 6SM -SHRA IN THE TAFS AFTER
THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM TONIGHT...THEN VARIABLE AT 3KT
OR LESS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 210150
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
950 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT...LOW PRESSURE WAS JUST EAST OF GEORGIAN BAY
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING EAST ALONG THE US CANADIAN
BORDER AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY BACK TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CLOUD COVER HAS
BECOME EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE FA WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
THERE HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...BUT MOST OF THIS IS EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE
SFC...OR VIRGA. WE HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF A FEW LOCATIONS
RECEIVING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN...BUT IT MOST AREAS
THUS FAR THE RADAR RETURNS HAVE ONLY RESULTED IN SPRINKLES.


IT STILL APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS INDICATED BY THE 00Z
ALY SOUNDING MAY LIMIT MUCH RAINFALL FROM OCCURRING
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE
MID LEVELS WILL HAVE MOISTENED UP A BIT...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
BE MORE PERSISTENT. SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR LATER
TONIGHT A BIT FARTHER S AND E...ESP TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHEN SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. WILL GENERALLY KEEP POPS IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST TOWARD DAYBREAK...EXCEPT FOR SOME LIKELY
POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND
WARM ADVECTION. HAVE TRENDED MOST AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET
MOS...WITH GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S EXPECTED...WARMEST WITHIN
THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION...WHERE A LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHOULD PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL FORM A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. FOR OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE PRESENT...ESP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE QUITE LIMITED DURING THIS TIME. SO...IT APPEARS
THAT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WOULD BE THE BEST WAY TO
DESCRIBE RAINFALL CHANCES DURING TUESDAY...WITH SOME AREAS
POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING SOME LONGER STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER IN BETWEEN.
IN FACT...ACROSS SOME SOUTHERN AREAS...A FEW BREAKS OF SUN COULD
EVEN OCCUR AT TIMES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY THE
SE CATSKILLS...WHERE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE
INDICATED...AND RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PERSISTENT. FOR TUE
NT...AGAIN...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT
GREAT...WITH THE MAIN FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINING ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND COAST. WILL KEEP
CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS...BUT AGAIN...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT
BE RAINING ALL THE TIME AND IN ALL AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...ASSUMING
SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS...AND LIMITED PRECIP OCCUR...HAVE
SIDED A BIT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS FOR TUE MAXES...WITH
GENERALLY 55-60 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR TUE NT...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BACK
INTO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING PRESSURES TO OUR SOUTH...TEMPS
SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED-THU...MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY JET WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIME...BEFORE SLOWLY PIVOTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WED NT-THU. THE
NOSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET SEEMS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR WED AFTN...BEFORE PIVOTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND LATE WED NT AND THU. LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW LEVEL JET...ALONG WITH STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
295-300 K SURFACES...WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
SHOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT FOR A TIME WED NT-
THU. ALSO...A SECONDARY MAX IN PRECIP IS LIKELY ACROSS UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES MAY OCCUR IN THESE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS...WITH
GENERALLY 0.50-1 INCH IN THE VALLEYS. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT STRONG NE DOWNSLOPING WINDS COULD CREATE MORE DRAMATIC RAIN
SHADOWING IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SOME
AREAS COULD BE AT OR EVEN BELOW THE LOWER END OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED VALLEY RANGES. SO...BANDS OF RAIN ROTATING WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL BECOME MORE
PROMINENT FOR WED-THU...WITH A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN
POSSIBLE...ESP WED NT AND THU AM...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BRIEFLY
ORIENTS ITSELF TOWARD EASTERN NYS/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT WILL BE
QUITE RAW DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH BRISK N/NE WINDS. IN
FACT...SOME GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH COULD OCCUR AT TIMES ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NT. MAX TEMPS ON WED SHOULD ONLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH EVEN COOLER MAXES COULD OCCUR IF STEADIER
RAIN DEVELOPS. THU MAXES SHOULD ONLY REACH 45-50 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS FOR WED
NT/THU AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THINGS START OFF WET BUT QUICKLY TURN DRY AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF
CAPE COD HEADS UP THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...DRAWING WET
WEATHER TO A CLOSE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND PROVIDING FOR A PLEASANT LATE
OCTOBER WEEKEND.  A FEW WESTERN ADIRONDACK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RAPIDLY
MOVING...THOUGH VERY DRY...COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  BY EARLY MONDAY...THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE MADE IT ALL THE WAY TO SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL BE
HARDLY NOTICEABLE DOWN THERE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN MOSTLY THE 45 TO 60 DEGREE
RANGE...BUT WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES MILDER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
EXTENDED.  OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL LOCATIONS...BUT WILL FALL INTO
THE 40S EVERYWHERE.  NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD IN
ALBANY ARE IN THE THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
ENDING 00Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. CEILING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN IN
VFR RANGE AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z...SO WILL MENTION VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF SOME SHOWERS AFFECTING ALL
TAF SITES AFT 18Z SO HAVE PLACED 6SM -SHRA IN THE TAFS AFTER
THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM TONIGHT...THEN VARIABLE AT 3KT
OR LESS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 210150
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
950 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT...LOW PRESSURE WAS JUST EAST OF GEORGIAN BAY
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING EAST ALONG THE US CANADIAN
BORDER AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY BACK TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CLOUD COVER HAS
BECOME EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE FA WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
THERE HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...BUT MOST OF THIS IS EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE
SFC...OR VIRGA. WE HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF A FEW LOCATIONS
RECEIVING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN...BUT IT MOST AREAS
THUS FAR THE RADAR RETURNS HAVE ONLY RESULTED IN SPRINKLES.


IT STILL APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS INDICATED BY THE 00Z
ALY SOUNDING MAY LIMIT MUCH RAINFALL FROM OCCURRING
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE
MID LEVELS WILL HAVE MOISTENED UP A BIT...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
BE MORE PERSISTENT. SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR LATER
TONIGHT A BIT FARTHER S AND E...ESP TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHEN SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. WILL GENERALLY KEEP POPS IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST TOWARD DAYBREAK...EXCEPT FOR SOME LIKELY
POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND
WARM ADVECTION. HAVE TRENDED MOST AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET
MOS...WITH GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S EXPECTED...WARMEST WITHIN
THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION...WHERE A LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHOULD PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL FORM A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. FOR OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE PRESENT...ESP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE QUITE LIMITED DURING THIS TIME. SO...IT APPEARS
THAT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WOULD BE THE BEST WAY TO
DESCRIBE RAINFALL CHANCES DURING TUESDAY...WITH SOME AREAS
POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING SOME LONGER STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER IN BETWEEN.
IN FACT...ACROSS SOME SOUTHERN AREAS...A FEW BREAKS OF SUN COULD
EVEN OCCUR AT TIMES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY THE
SE CATSKILLS...WHERE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE
INDICATED...AND RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PERSISTENT. FOR TUE
NT...AGAIN...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT
GREAT...WITH THE MAIN FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINING ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND COAST. WILL KEEP
CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS...BUT AGAIN...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT
BE RAINING ALL THE TIME AND IN ALL AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...ASSUMING
SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS...AND LIMITED PRECIP OCCUR...HAVE
SIDED A BIT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS FOR TUE MAXES...WITH
GENERALLY 55-60 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR TUE NT...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BACK
INTO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING PRESSURES TO OUR SOUTH...TEMPS
SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED-THU...MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY JET WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIME...BEFORE SLOWLY PIVOTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WED NT-THU. THE
NOSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET SEEMS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR WED AFTN...BEFORE PIVOTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND LATE WED NT AND THU. LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW LEVEL JET...ALONG WITH STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
295-300 K SURFACES...WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
SHOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT FOR A TIME WED NT-
THU. ALSO...A SECONDARY MAX IN PRECIP IS LIKELY ACROSS UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES MAY OCCUR IN THESE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS...WITH
GENERALLY 0.50-1 INCH IN THE VALLEYS. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT STRONG NE DOWNSLOPING WINDS COULD CREATE MORE DRAMATIC RAIN
SHADOWING IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SOME
AREAS COULD BE AT OR EVEN BELOW THE LOWER END OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED VALLEY RANGES. SO...BANDS OF RAIN ROTATING WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL BECOME MORE
PROMINENT FOR WED-THU...WITH A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN
POSSIBLE...ESP WED NT AND THU AM...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BRIEFLY
ORIENTS ITSELF TOWARD EASTERN NYS/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT WILL BE
QUITE RAW DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH BRISK N/NE WINDS. IN
FACT...SOME GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH COULD OCCUR AT TIMES ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NT. MAX TEMPS ON WED SHOULD ONLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH EVEN COOLER MAXES COULD OCCUR IF STEADIER
RAIN DEVELOPS. THU MAXES SHOULD ONLY REACH 45-50 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS FOR WED
NT/THU AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THINGS START OFF WET BUT QUICKLY TURN DRY AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF
CAPE COD HEADS UP THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...DRAWING WET
WEATHER TO A CLOSE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND PROVIDING FOR A PLEASANT LATE
OCTOBER WEEKEND.  A FEW WESTERN ADIRONDACK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RAPIDLY
MOVING...THOUGH VERY DRY...COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  BY EARLY MONDAY...THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE MADE IT ALL THE WAY TO SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL BE
HARDLY NOTICEABLE DOWN THERE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN MOSTLY THE 45 TO 60 DEGREE
RANGE...BUT WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES MILDER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
EXTENDED.  OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL LOCATIONS...BUT WILL FALL INTO
THE 40S EVERYWHERE.  NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD IN
ALBANY ARE IN THE THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
ENDING 00Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. CEILING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN IN
VFR RANGE AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z...SO WILL MENTION VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF SOME SHOWERS AFFECTING ALL
TAF SITES AFT 18Z SO HAVE PLACED 6SM -SHRA IN THE TAFS AFTER
THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM TONIGHT...THEN VARIABLE AT 3KT
OR LESS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 210150
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
950 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM EDT...LOW PRESSURE WAS JUST EAST OF GEORGIAN BAY
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING EAST ALONG THE US CANADIAN
BORDER AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY BACK TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CLOUD COVER HAS
BECOME EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE FA WITH MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
THERE HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...BUT MOST OF THIS IS EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE
SFC...OR VIRGA. WE HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF A FEW LOCATIONS
RECEIVING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN...BUT IT MOST AREAS
THUS FAR THE RADAR RETURNS HAVE ONLY RESULTED IN SPRINKLES.


IT STILL APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS INDICATED BY THE 00Z
ALY SOUNDING MAY LIMIT MUCH RAINFALL FROM OCCURRING
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE
MID LEVELS WILL HAVE MOISTENED UP A BIT...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
BE MORE PERSISTENT. SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR LATER
TONIGHT A BIT FARTHER S AND E...ESP TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHEN SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. WILL GENERALLY KEEP POPS IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST TOWARD DAYBREAK...EXCEPT FOR SOME LIKELY
POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND
WARM ADVECTION. HAVE TRENDED MOST AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET
MOS...WITH GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S EXPECTED...WARMEST WITHIN
THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION...WHERE A LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHOULD PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL FORM A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. FOR OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE PRESENT...ESP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE QUITE LIMITED DURING THIS TIME. SO...IT APPEARS
THAT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WOULD BE THE BEST WAY TO
DESCRIBE RAINFALL CHANCES DURING TUESDAY...WITH SOME AREAS
POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING SOME LONGER STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER IN BETWEEN.
IN FACT...ACROSS SOME SOUTHERN AREAS...A FEW BREAKS OF SUN COULD
EVEN OCCUR AT TIMES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY THE
SE CATSKILLS...WHERE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE
INDICATED...AND RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PERSISTENT. FOR TUE
NT...AGAIN...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT
GREAT...WITH THE MAIN FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINING ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND COAST. WILL KEEP
CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS...BUT AGAIN...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT
BE RAINING ALL THE TIME AND IN ALL AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...ASSUMING
SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS...AND LIMITED PRECIP OCCUR...HAVE
SIDED A BIT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS FOR TUE MAXES...WITH
GENERALLY 55-60 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR TUE NT...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BACK
INTO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING PRESSURES TO OUR SOUTH...TEMPS
SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED-THU...MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY JET WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIME...BEFORE SLOWLY PIVOTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WED NT-THU. THE
NOSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET SEEMS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR WED AFTN...BEFORE PIVOTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND LATE WED NT AND THU. LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW LEVEL JET...ALONG WITH STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
295-300 K SURFACES...WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
SHOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT FOR A TIME WED NT-
THU. ALSO...A SECONDARY MAX IN PRECIP IS LIKELY ACROSS UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES MAY OCCUR IN THESE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS...WITH
GENERALLY 0.50-1 INCH IN THE VALLEYS. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT STRONG NE DOWNSLOPING WINDS COULD CREATE MORE DRAMATIC RAIN
SHADOWING IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SOME
AREAS COULD BE AT OR EVEN BELOW THE LOWER END OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED VALLEY RANGES. SO...BANDS OF RAIN ROTATING WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL BECOME MORE
PROMINENT FOR WED-THU...WITH A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN
POSSIBLE...ESP WED NT AND THU AM...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BRIEFLY
ORIENTS ITSELF TOWARD EASTERN NYS/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT WILL BE
QUITE RAW DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH BRISK N/NE WINDS. IN
FACT...SOME GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH COULD OCCUR AT TIMES ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NT. MAX TEMPS ON WED SHOULD ONLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH EVEN COOLER MAXES COULD OCCUR IF STEADIER
RAIN DEVELOPS. THU MAXES SHOULD ONLY REACH 45-50 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS FOR WED
NT/THU AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THINGS START OFF WET BUT QUICKLY TURN DRY AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF
CAPE COD HEADS UP THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...DRAWING WET
WEATHER TO A CLOSE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND PROVIDING FOR A PLEASANT LATE
OCTOBER WEEKEND.  A FEW WESTERN ADIRONDACK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RAPIDLY
MOVING...THOUGH VERY DRY...COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  BY EARLY MONDAY...THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE MADE IT ALL THE WAY TO SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL BE
HARDLY NOTICEABLE DOWN THERE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN MOSTLY THE 45 TO 60 DEGREE
RANGE...BUT WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES MILDER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
EXTENDED.  OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL LOCATIONS...BUT WILL FALL INTO
THE 40S EVERYWHERE.  NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD IN
ALBANY ARE IN THE THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
ENDING 00Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. CEILING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN IN
VFR RANGE AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z...SO WILL MENTION VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF SOME SHOWERS AFFECTING ALL
TAF SITES AFT 18Z SO HAVE PLACED 6SM -SHRA IN THE TAFS AFTER
THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM TONIGHT...THEN VARIABLE AT 3KT
OR LESS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KBTV 210004
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
804 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT TO
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY LATE TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT, THE REST OF THE
WEEK WILL BE RAINY AND COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 729 PM EDT MONDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN NY FROM ONTARIO AND LAKE ONTARIO FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. OVERNIGHT...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPILL INTO VT BUT
MAINLY BE FOCUSED ACROSS ST LWRNC VLY NY RIGHT NOW.

NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (335 PM EDT) CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION, JUST FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT THAT STILL HAVE SOME
SUN. NOT EXPECTING THOSE CLEAR SPOTS TO LAST MUCH LONGER. RADAR
SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN UP ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER, WITH OTHER
SHOWERS FARTHER BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
LAKE ONTARIO. THESE SHOWERS ARE ALSO MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND FAR NORTHERN VERMONT DURING
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAVY RAIN, SO
QPF SHOULD BE 1/10" OR LESS.

CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH. SEEMED LIKE THE
VARIOUS MODEL BLENDS AND MOS GUIDANCE WERE MAKING IT A LITTLE TOO
COOL. LIKED THE LOOK OF THE RAW 2 METER (SURFACE) TEMPERATURES
FROM OUR LOCAL WRF MODELS, SO I LEANED TOWARD THAT OUTPUT. SO
THINKING IN GENERAL LOTS OF 40S. COULD BE A FEW UPPER 30S IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM/EASTERN VERMONT IF THEY STILL HAVE A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS AFTER SUNSET TO ALLOW FOR A QUICK COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT MONDAY...THE ACTION REALLY GETS CRANKING FOR
LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROF OFF TO THE WEST WILL
DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND ULTIMATELY CUT-OFF DOWN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
SET UP SHOP JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AND AS WE KNOW, CUT-OFFS
ARE "CUT-OFF" FROM THE MAIN FLOW, SO THAT MEANS THEY DON`T MOVE
VERY QUICKLY.

12Z GUIDANCE STILL ALL SHOWING THIS SAME SCENARIO, SO CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT WE`VE GOT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET CONDITIONS.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED AND BRING IN COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE -- RESULTING IN A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY (AND BEYOND).

TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS UP. THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.
AS THE TROUGH EVOLVES INTO A CUT-OFF LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND, THINGS WILL GET MORE
INTERESTING.

EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND STRENGTHEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ULTIMATELY WE`LL BE SEEING 850MB WINDS OUT OF
THE EAST AROUND 30-40KTS AND THIS WILL BRING IN ALL THE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE, RESULTING IN A PERSISTANT RAIN, LIKELY OCCASIONAL
MODERATE TO HEAVY ON WEDNESDAY. IT`S JUST GOING TO BE DOWNRIGHT
MISERABLE (CHILLY AND WET).

TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
LOCATIONS FOR HEAVIEST AMOUNTS. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW, STILL FEEL
THE FEELINGS BY PREVIOUS FORECASTERS THAT WE SHOULD SEE AN
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
ADIRONDACKS MAKES SENSE. THERE SHOULD BE SHADOWING BY THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS TO KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST, THE VERY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL START TO TURN NORTHEAST
AND EVENTUALLY NORTH. A NORTHERLY FLOW COMING DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY IS A CONVERGENT FLOW, AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE
THE RAINFALL HERE IN THE VALLEY LATE ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN MEAN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
CHANGING MUCH FROM DAY TO NIGHT. GUIDANCE BLENDS STILL SEEM TO BE
A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT, SO TRIED MY BEST
TO MAKE THE DIURNAL DIFFERENCE SMALLER. EVEN SO, I THINK MY FINAL
NUMBERS ARE STILL A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT.
BOTTOM LINE, 40S AT NIGHT AND SOME 50S DURING THE DAY (IF WE ARE
LUCKY).

OH YEAH, FOR THE WINTER WEATHER FANS OUT THERE -- SORRY, IT`S
LOOKING JUST WET, NOT WHITE. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE UP AROUND &
OVER 6,000FT. BESIDES, EVEN IF IT DID SNOW, IT`S STILL EARLY IN
THE SEASON AND WOULD LIKELY NOT HANG AROUND THAT LONG -- SO IT
WOULD JUST BE WASTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO PULL
SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND MARITIMES
BY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. DEFORMATIONAL FORCING CONTINUES TO
BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FCST AREA WHERE MODERATE MID LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
UNDERCUT BY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLIES. THIS VEERING/WARM THERMAL
ADVECTIVE PROFILE OFTEN FAVORS MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER PCPN
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE I`LL MAINTAIN
HIGH POPS AND HEAVIEST QPF.

STEADIER PCPN/RAFL THEN SLOWLY TAPERS TO SCT SHOWERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS DEFORMATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT. HOWEVER...WITH
CONTINUED MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF ADDL TAIL END
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IT WON`T COMPLETELY DRY OUT UNTIL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FINALLY
MAKES SOME INROADS EASTWARD. CONTINUED PRIOR TRENDS IN REGARD TO
TEMPS BY UNDERCUTTING MOS HIGHS AND NARROWING MEAN DIURNAL RANGES
DURING THU/FRI TIME FRAME WITH THE CLOUDS/PCPN/NORTHERLY
FLOW...GENERALLY OFFERING A RATHER HIGH DEGREE OF HOMOGENEITY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION...INCLUDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VALUES FOR THE
MOST PART SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCALES
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. THEREAFTER...READINGS MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS
THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES WEAKEN AND PROGS OF AT LEAST SOME
PARTIAL SUN GRADUALLY INCREASE...ESP BY NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...SLOWLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING WILL OCCUR
AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS OF KMSS/KSLK...THEN SPREAD TO REST OF
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL
THEN BE THE RULE DURING TUESDAY. CIGS MAINLY VFR THROUGH
06Z...THEN TRENDING TO MVFR AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS AFTER 06Z AND
AFTER 12Z AT VERMONT TAF SITES. KMSS WILL SEE CIGS LOWER TO IFR
DURING TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MOSTLY EASTERLY TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BECOME NORTHEAST AT KMSS AT 10-15
KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI ONWARD...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH/SLW
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...RJS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 210004
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
804 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT TO
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY LATE TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT, THE REST OF THE
WEEK WILL BE RAINY AND COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 729 PM EDT MONDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN NY FROM ONTARIO AND LAKE ONTARIO FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. OVERNIGHT...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPILL INTO VT BUT
MAINLY BE FOCUSED ACROSS ST LWRNC VLY NY RIGHT NOW.

NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (335 PM EDT) CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION, JUST FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT THAT STILL HAVE SOME
SUN. NOT EXPECTING THOSE CLEAR SPOTS TO LAST MUCH LONGER. RADAR
SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN UP ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER, WITH OTHER
SHOWERS FARTHER BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
LAKE ONTARIO. THESE SHOWERS ARE ALSO MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND FAR NORTHERN VERMONT DURING
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAVY RAIN, SO
QPF SHOULD BE 1/10" OR LESS.

CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH. SEEMED LIKE THE
VARIOUS MODEL BLENDS AND MOS GUIDANCE WERE MAKING IT A LITTLE TOO
COOL. LIKED THE LOOK OF THE RAW 2 METER (SURFACE) TEMPERATURES
FROM OUR LOCAL WRF MODELS, SO I LEANED TOWARD THAT OUTPUT. SO
THINKING IN GENERAL LOTS OF 40S. COULD BE A FEW UPPER 30S IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM/EASTERN VERMONT IF THEY STILL HAVE A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS AFTER SUNSET TO ALLOW FOR A QUICK COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT MONDAY...THE ACTION REALLY GETS CRANKING FOR
LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROF OFF TO THE WEST WILL
DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND ULTIMATELY CUT-OFF DOWN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
SET UP SHOP JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AND AS WE KNOW, CUT-OFFS
ARE "CUT-OFF" FROM THE MAIN FLOW, SO THAT MEANS THEY DON`T MOVE
VERY QUICKLY.

12Z GUIDANCE STILL ALL SHOWING THIS SAME SCENARIO, SO CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT WE`VE GOT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET CONDITIONS.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED AND BRING IN COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE -- RESULTING IN A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY (AND BEYOND).

TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS UP. THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.
AS THE TROUGH EVOLVES INTO A CUT-OFF LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND, THINGS WILL GET MORE
INTERESTING.

EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND STRENGTHEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ULTIMATELY WE`LL BE SEEING 850MB WINDS OUT OF
THE EAST AROUND 30-40KTS AND THIS WILL BRING IN ALL THE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE, RESULTING IN A PERSISTANT RAIN, LIKELY OCCASIONAL
MODERATE TO HEAVY ON WEDNESDAY. IT`S JUST GOING TO BE DOWNRIGHT
MISERABLE (CHILLY AND WET).

TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
LOCATIONS FOR HEAVIEST AMOUNTS. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW, STILL FEEL
THE FEELINGS BY PREVIOUS FORECASTERS THAT WE SHOULD SEE AN
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
ADIRONDACKS MAKES SENSE. THERE SHOULD BE SHADOWING BY THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS TO KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST, THE VERY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL START TO TURN NORTHEAST
AND EVENTUALLY NORTH. A NORTHERLY FLOW COMING DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY IS A CONVERGENT FLOW, AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE
THE RAINFALL HERE IN THE VALLEY LATE ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN MEAN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
CHANGING MUCH FROM DAY TO NIGHT. GUIDANCE BLENDS STILL SEEM TO BE
A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT, SO TRIED MY BEST
TO MAKE THE DIURNAL DIFFERENCE SMALLER. EVEN SO, I THINK MY FINAL
NUMBERS ARE STILL A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT.
BOTTOM LINE, 40S AT NIGHT AND SOME 50S DURING THE DAY (IF WE ARE
LUCKY).

OH YEAH, FOR THE WINTER WEATHER FANS OUT THERE -- SORRY, IT`S
LOOKING JUST WET, NOT WHITE. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE UP AROUND &
OVER 6,000FT. BESIDES, EVEN IF IT DID SNOW, IT`S STILL EARLY IN
THE SEASON AND WOULD LIKELY NOT HANG AROUND THAT LONG -- SO IT
WOULD JUST BE WASTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO PULL
SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND MARITIMES
BY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. DEFORMATIONAL FORCING CONTINUES TO
BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FCST AREA WHERE MODERATE MID LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
UNDERCUT BY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLIES. THIS VEERING/WARM THERMAL
ADVECTIVE PROFILE OFTEN FAVORS MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER PCPN
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE I`LL MAINTAIN
HIGH POPS AND HEAVIEST QPF.

STEADIER PCPN/RAFL THEN SLOWLY TAPERS TO SCT SHOWERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS DEFORMATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT. HOWEVER...WITH
CONTINUED MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF ADDL TAIL END
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IT WON`T COMPLETELY DRY OUT UNTIL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FINALLY
MAKES SOME INROADS EASTWARD. CONTINUED PRIOR TRENDS IN REGARD TO
TEMPS BY UNDERCUTTING MOS HIGHS AND NARROWING MEAN DIURNAL RANGES
DURING THU/FRI TIME FRAME WITH THE CLOUDS/PCPN/NORTHERLY
FLOW...GENERALLY OFFERING A RATHER HIGH DEGREE OF HOMOGENEITY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION...INCLUDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VALUES FOR THE
MOST PART SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCALES
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. THEREAFTER...READINGS MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS
THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES WEAKEN AND PROGS OF AT LEAST SOME
PARTIAL SUN GRADUALLY INCREASE...ESP BY NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...SLOWLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING WILL OCCUR
AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS OF KMSS/KSLK...THEN SPREAD TO REST OF
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL
THEN BE THE RULE DURING TUESDAY. CIGS MAINLY VFR THROUGH
06Z...THEN TRENDING TO MVFR AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS AFTER 06Z AND
AFTER 12Z AT VERMONT TAF SITES. KMSS WILL SEE CIGS LOWER TO IFR
DURING TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MOSTLY EASTERLY TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BECOME NORTHEAST AT KMSS AT 10-15
KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI ONWARD...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH/SLW
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...RJS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 210004
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
804 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT TO
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY LATE TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT, THE REST OF THE
WEEK WILL BE RAINY AND COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 729 PM EDT MONDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN NY FROM ONTARIO AND LAKE ONTARIO FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. OVERNIGHT...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPILL INTO VT BUT
MAINLY BE FOCUSED ACROSS ST LWRNC VLY NY RIGHT NOW.

NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (335 PM EDT) CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION, JUST FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT THAT STILL HAVE SOME
SUN. NOT EXPECTING THOSE CLEAR SPOTS TO LAST MUCH LONGER. RADAR
SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN UP ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER, WITH OTHER
SHOWERS FARTHER BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
LAKE ONTARIO. THESE SHOWERS ARE ALSO MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND FAR NORTHERN VERMONT DURING
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAVY RAIN, SO
QPF SHOULD BE 1/10" OR LESS.

CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH. SEEMED LIKE THE
VARIOUS MODEL BLENDS AND MOS GUIDANCE WERE MAKING IT A LITTLE TOO
COOL. LIKED THE LOOK OF THE RAW 2 METER (SURFACE) TEMPERATURES
FROM OUR LOCAL WRF MODELS, SO I LEANED TOWARD THAT OUTPUT. SO
THINKING IN GENERAL LOTS OF 40S. COULD BE A FEW UPPER 30S IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM/EASTERN VERMONT IF THEY STILL HAVE A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS AFTER SUNSET TO ALLOW FOR A QUICK COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT MONDAY...THE ACTION REALLY GETS CRANKING FOR
LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROF OFF TO THE WEST WILL
DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND ULTIMATELY CUT-OFF DOWN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
SET UP SHOP JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AND AS WE KNOW, CUT-OFFS
ARE "CUT-OFF" FROM THE MAIN FLOW, SO THAT MEANS THEY DON`T MOVE
VERY QUICKLY.

12Z GUIDANCE STILL ALL SHOWING THIS SAME SCENARIO, SO CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT WE`VE GOT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET CONDITIONS.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED AND BRING IN COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE -- RESULTING IN A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY (AND BEYOND).

TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS UP. THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.
AS THE TROUGH EVOLVES INTO A CUT-OFF LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND, THINGS WILL GET MORE
INTERESTING.

EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND STRENGTHEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ULTIMATELY WE`LL BE SEEING 850MB WINDS OUT OF
THE EAST AROUND 30-40KTS AND THIS WILL BRING IN ALL THE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE, RESULTING IN A PERSISTANT RAIN, LIKELY OCCASIONAL
MODERATE TO HEAVY ON WEDNESDAY. IT`S JUST GOING TO BE DOWNRIGHT
MISERABLE (CHILLY AND WET).

TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
LOCATIONS FOR HEAVIEST AMOUNTS. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW, STILL FEEL
THE FEELINGS BY PREVIOUS FORECASTERS THAT WE SHOULD SEE AN
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
ADIRONDACKS MAKES SENSE. THERE SHOULD BE SHADOWING BY THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS TO KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST, THE VERY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL START TO TURN NORTHEAST
AND EVENTUALLY NORTH. A NORTHERLY FLOW COMING DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY IS A CONVERGENT FLOW, AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE
THE RAINFALL HERE IN THE VALLEY LATE ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN MEAN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
CHANGING MUCH FROM DAY TO NIGHT. GUIDANCE BLENDS STILL SEEM TO BE
A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT, SO TRIED MY BEST
TO MAKE THE DIURNAL DIFFERENCE SMALLER. EVEN SO, I THINK MY FINAL
NUMBERS ARE STILL A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT.
BOTTOM LINE, 40S AT NIGHT AND SOME 50S DURING THE DAY (IF WE ARE
LUCKY).

OH YEAH, FOR THE WINTER WEATHER FANS OUT THERE -- SORRY, IT`S
LOOKING JUST WET, NOT WHITE. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE UP AROUND &
OVER 6,000FT. BESIDES, EVEN IF IT DID SNOW, IT`S STILL EARLY IN
THE SEASON AND WOULD LIKELY NOT HANG AROUND THAT LONG -- SO IT
WOULD JUST BE WASTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO PULL
SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND MARITIMES
BY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. DEFORMATIONAL FORCING CONTINUES TO
BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FCST AREA WHERE MODERATE MID LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
UNDERCUT BY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLIES. THIS VEERING/WARM THERMAL
ADVECTIVE PROFILE OFTEN FAVORS MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER PCPN
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE I`LL MAINTAIN
HIGH POPS AND HEAVIEST QPF.

STEADIER PCPN/RAFL THEN SLOWLY TAPERS TO SCT SHOWERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS DEFORMATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT. HOWEVER...WITH
CONTINUED MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF ADDL TAIL END
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IT WON`T COMPLETELY DRY OUT UNTIL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FINALLY
MAKES SOME INROADS EASTWARD. CONTINUED PRIOR TRENDS IN REGARD TO
TEMPS BY UNDERCUTTING MOS HIGHS AND NARROWING MEAN DIURNAL RANGES
DURING THU/FRI TIME FRAME WITH THE CLOUDS/PCPN/NORTHERLY
FLOW...GENERALLY OFFERING A RATHER HIGH DEGREE OF HOMOGENEITY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION...INCLUDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VALUES FOR THE
MOST PART SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCALES
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. THEREAFTER...READINGS MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS
THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES WEAKEN AND PROGS OF AT LEAST SOME
PARTIAL SUN GRADUALLY INCREASE...ESP BY NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...SLOWLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING WILL OCCUR
AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS OF KMSS/KSLK...THEN SPREAD TO REST OF
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL
THEN BE THE RULE DURING TUESDAY. CIGS MAINLY VFR THROUGH
06Z...THEN TRENDING TO MVFR AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS AFTER 06Z AND
AFTER 12Z AT VERMONT TAF SITES. KMSS WILL SEE CIGS LOWER TO IFR
DURING TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MOSTLY EASTERLY TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BECOME NORTHEAST AT KMSS AT 10-15
KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI ONWARD...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH/SLW
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...RJS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 210004
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
804 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT TO
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY LATE TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT, THE REST OF THE
WEEK WILL BE RAINY AND COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 729 PM EDT MONDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN NY FROM ONTARIO AND LAKE ONTARIO FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. OVERNIGHT...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPILL INTO VT BUT
MAINLY BE FOCUSED ACROSS ST LWRNC VLY NY RIGHT NOW.

NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (335 PM EDT) CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION, JUST FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT THAT STILL HAVE SOME
SUN. NOT EXPECTING THOSE CLEAR SPOTS TO LAST MUCH LONGER. RADAR
SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN UP ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER, WITH OTHER
SHOWERS FARTHER BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
LAKE ONTARIO. THESE SHOWERS ARE ALSO MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND FAR NORTHERN VERMONT DURING
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAVY RAIN, SO
QPF SHOULD BE 1/10" OR LESS.

CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH. SEEMED LIKE THE
VARIOUS MODEL BLENDS AND MOS GUIDANCE WERE MAKING IT A LITTLE TOO
COOL. LIKED THE LOOK OF THE RAW 2 METER (SURFACE) TEMPERATURES
FROM OUR LOCAL WRF MODELS, SO I LEANED TOWARD THAT OUTPUT. SO
THINKING IN GENERAL LOTS OF 40S. COULD BE A FEW UPPER 30S IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM/EASTERN VERMONT IF THEY STILL HAVE A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS AFTER SUNSET TO ALLOW FOR A QUICK COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT MONDAY...THE ACTION REALLY GETS CRANKING FOR
LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROF OFF TO THE WEST WILL
DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND ULTIMATELY CUT-OFF DOWN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
SET UP SHOP JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AND AS WE KNOW, CUT-OFFS
ARE "CUT-OFF" FROM THE MAIN FLOW, SO THAT MEANS THEY DON`T MOVE
VERY QUICKLY.

12Z GUIDANCE STILL ALL SHOWING THIS SAME SCENARIO, SO CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT WE`VE GOT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET CONDITIONS.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED AND BRING IN COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE -- RESULTING IN A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY (AND BEYOND).

TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS UP. THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.
AS THE TROUGH EVOLVES INTO A CUT-OFF LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND, THINGS WILL GET MORE
INTERESTING.

EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND STRENGTHEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ULTIMATELY WE`LL BE SEEING 850MB WINDS OUT OF
THE EAST AROUND 30-40KTS AND THIS WILL BRING IN ALL THE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE, RESULTING IN A PERSISTANT RAIN, LIKELY OCCASIONAL
MODERATE TO HEAVY ON WEDNESDAY. IT`S JUST GOING TO BE DOWNRIGHT
MISERABLE (CHILLY AND WET).

TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
LOCATIONS FOR HEAVIEST AMOUNTS. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW, STILL FEEL
THE FEELINGS BY PREVIOUS FORECASTERS THAT WE SHOULD SEE AN
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
ADIRONDACKS MAKES SENSE. THERE SHOULD BE SHADOWING BY THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS TO KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST, THE VERY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL START TO TURN NORTHEAST
AND EVENTUALLY NORTH. A NORTHERLY FLOW COMING DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY IS A CONVERGENT FLOW, AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE
THE RAINFALL HERE IN THE VALLEY LATE ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN MEAN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
CHANGING MUCH FROM DAY TO NIGHT. GUIDANCE BLENDS STILL SEEM TO BE
A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT, SO TRIED MY BEST
TO MAKE THE DIURNAL DIFFERENCE SMALLER. EVEN SO, I THINK MY FINAL
NUMBERS ARE STILL A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT.
BOTTOM LINE, 40S AT NIGHT AND SOME 50S DURING THE DAY (IF WE ARE
LUCKY).

OH YEAH, FOR THE WINTER WEATHER FANS OUT THERE -- SORRY, IT`S
LOOKING JUST WET, NOT WHITE. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE UP AROUND &
OVER 6,000FT. BESIDES, EVEN IF IT DID SNOW, IT`S STILL EARLY IN
THE SEASON AND WOULD LIKELY NOT HANG AROUND THAT LONG -- SO IT
WOULD JUST BE WASTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO PULL
SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND MARITIMES
BY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. DEFORMATIONAL FORCING CONTINUES TO
BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FCST AREA WHERE MODERATE MID LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
UNDERCUT BY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLIES. THIS VEERING/WARM THERMAL
ADVECTIVE PROFILE OFTEN FAVORS MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER PCPN
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE I`LL MAINTAIN
HIGH POPS AND HEAVIEST QPF.

STEADIER PCPN/RAFL THEN SLOWLY TAPERS TO SCT SHOWERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS DEFORMATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT. HOWEVER...WITH
CONTINUED MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF ADDL TAIL END
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IT WON`T COMPLETELY DRY OUT UNTIL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FINALLY
MAKES SOME INROADS EASTWARD. CONTINUED PRIOR TRENDS IN REGARD TO
TEMPS BY UNDERCUTTING MOS HIGHS AND NARROWING MEAN DIURNAL RANGES
DURING THU/FRI TIME FRAME WITH THE CLOUDS/PCPN/NORTHERLY
FLOW...GENERALLY OFFERING A RATHER HIGH DEGREE OF HOMOGENEITY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION...INCLUDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VALUES FOR THE
MOST PART SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCALES
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. THEREAFTER...READINGS MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS
THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES WEAKEN AND PROGS OF AT LEAST SOME
PARTIAL SUN GRADUALLY INCREASE...ESP BY NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...SLOWLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING WILL OCCUR
AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS OF KMSS/KSLK...THEN SPREAD TO REST OF
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL
THEN BE THE RULE DURING TUESDAY. CIGS MAINLY VFR THROUGH
06Z...THEN TRENDING TO MVFR AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS AFTER 06Z AND
AFTER 12Z AT VERMONT TAF SITES. KMSS WILL SEE CIGS LOWER TO IFR
DURING TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MOSTLY EASTERLY TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BECOME NORTHEAST AT KMSS AT 10-15
KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI ONWARD...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH/SLW
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...RJS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 202333
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
733 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT TO
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY LATE TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT, THE REST OF THE
WEEK WILL BE RAINY AND COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 729 PM EDT MONDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN NY FROM ONTARIO AND LAKE ONTARIO FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. OVERNIGHT...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPILL INTO VT BUT
MAINLY BE FOCUSED ACROSS ST LWRNC VLY NY RIGHT NOW.

NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (335 PM EDT) CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION, JUST FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT THAT STILL HAVE SOME
SUN. NOT EXPECTING THOSE CLEAR SPOTS TO LAST MUCH LONGER. RADAR
SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN UP ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER, WITH OTHER
SHOWERS FARTHER BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
LAKE ONTARIO. THESE SHOWERS ARE ALSO MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND FAR NORTHERN VERMONT DURING
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAVY RAIN, SO
QPF SHOULD BE 1/10" OR LESS.

CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH. SEEMED LIKE THE
VARIOUS MODEL BLENDS AND MOS GUIDANCE WERE MAKING IT A LITTLE TOO
COOL. LIKED THE LOOK OF THE RAW 2 METER (SURFACE) TEMPERATURES
FROM OUR LOCAL WRF MODELS, SO I LEANED TOWARD THAT OUTPUT. SO
THINKING IN GENERAL LOTS OF 40S. COULD BE A FEW UPPER 30S IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM/EASTERN VERMONT IF THEY STILL HAVE A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS AFTER SUNSET TO ALLOW FOR A QUICK COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT MONDAY...THE ACTION REALLY GETS CRANKING FOR
LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROF OFF TO THE WEST WILL
DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND ULTIMATELY CUT-OFF DOWN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
SET UP SHOP JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AND AS WE KNOW, CUT-OFFS
ARE "CUT-OFF" FROM THE MAIN FLOW, SO THAT MEANS THEY DON`T MOVE
VERY QUICKLY.

12Z GUIDANCE STILL ALL SHOWING THIS SAME SCENARIO, SO CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT WE`VE GOT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET CONDITIONS.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED AND BRING IN COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE -- RESULTING IN A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY (AND BEYOND).

TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS UP. THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.
AS THE TROUGH EVOLVES INTO A CUT-OFF LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND, THINGS WILL GET MORE
INTERESTING.

EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND STRENGTHEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ULTIMATELY WE`LL BE SEEING 850MB WINDS OUT OF
THE EAST AROUND 30-40KTS AND THIS WILL BRING IN ALL THE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE, RESULTING IN A PERSISTANT RAIN, LIKELY OCCASIONAL
MODERATE TO HEAVY ON WEDNESDAY. IT`S JUST GOING TO BE DOWNRIGHT
MISERABLE (CHILLY AND WET).

TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
LOCATIONS FOR HEAVIEST AMOUNTS. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW, STILL FEEL
THE FEELINGS BY PREVIOUS FORECASTERS THAT WE SHOULD SEE AN
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
ADIRONDACKS MAKES SENSE. THERE SHOULD BE SHADOWING BY THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS TO KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST, THE VERY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL START TO TURN NORTHEAST
AND EVENTUALLY NORTH. A NORTHERLY FLOW COMING DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY IS A CONVERGENT FLOW, AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE
THE RAINFALL HERE IN THE VALLEY LATE ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN MEAN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
CHANGING MUCH FROM DAY TO NIGHT. GUIDANCE BLENDS STILL SEEM TO BE
A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT, SO TRIED MY BEST
TO MAKE THE DIURNAL DIFFERENCE SMALLER. EVEN SO, I THINK MY FINAL
NUMBERS ARE STILL A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT.
BOTTOM LINE, 40S AT NIGHT AND SOME 50S DURING THE DAY (IF WE ARE
LUCKY).

OH YEAH, FOR THE WINTER WEATHER FANS OUT THERE -- SORRY, IT`S
LOOKING JUST WET, NOT WHITE. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE UP AROUND &
OVER 6,000FT. BESIDES, EVEN IF IT DID SNOW, IT`S STILL EARLY IN
THE SEASON AND WOULD LIKELY NOT HANG AROUND THAT LONG -- SO IT
WOULD JUST BE WASTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO PULL
SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND MARITIMES
BY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. DEFORMATIONAL FORCING CONTINUES TO
BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FCST AREA WHERE MODERATE MID LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
UNDERCUT BY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLIES. THIS VEERING/WARM THERMAL
ADVECTIVE PROFILE OFTEN FAVORS MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER PCPN
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE I`LL MAINTAIN
HIGH POPS AND HEAVIEST QPF.

STEADIER PCPN/RAFL THEN SLOWLY TAPERS TO SCT SHOWERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS DEFORMATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT. HOWEVER...WITH
CONTINUED MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF ADDL TAIL END
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IT WON`T COMPLETELY DRY OUT UNTIL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FINALLY
MAKES SOME INROADS EASTWARD. CONTINUED PRIOR TRENDS IN REGARD TO
TEMPS BY UNDERCUTTING MOS HIGHS AND NARROWING MEAN DIURNAL RANGES
DURING THU/FRI TIME FRAME WITH THE CLOUDS/PCPN/NORTHERLY
FLOW...GENERALLY OFFERING A RATHER HIGH DEGREE OF HOMOGENEITY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION...INCLUDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VALUES FOR THE
MOST PART SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCALES
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. THEREAFTER...READINGS MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS
THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES WEAKEN AND PROGS OF AT LEAST SOME
PARTIAL SUN GRADUALLY INCREASE...ESP BY NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AIRMET ADVSYS FOR MODERATE ICING POTL FROM 080 AGL TO 180 AGL
THROUGH 03Z AREA WIDE...

THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...SLOWLY DETERIORATING CONDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLOWLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN
TO OCCUR AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS OF KMSS/KSLK THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND BEYOND...WITH SOME ON AND OFF
SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KBTV/KPBG AFTER 00Z
OR SO. MAINLY DRY AT KMPV/KRUT UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUE...AND POSSIBLY
BEYOND. CIGS A MAINLY VFR THROUGH 06Z...THOUGH SOME PATCHY MVFR AT
KSLK/KMSS IN EVENING SHOWER ACTIVITY. AFTER 06Z CONDS SLOWLY LOWER
TO MVFR AT MOST NRN NY TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY KBTV...REMAINING
VFR AT KMPV/KRUT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VRB TO LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH 00Z...TRENDING CALM TO LIGHT
EAST/NORTHEASTERLY AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KRUT WHERE LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. AT KMSS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN AFTER 09Z TO 10-15 KTS WITH ENHANCED GUSTINESS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR AS UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AFFECT THE REGION.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD AND/OR PERIODS OF
RAIN...OCCNLY HEAVY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS UPPER LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. PREVAILING
MVFR/IFR THE GENERAL RULE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDS AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN/SHOWERS LESSENS OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR STILL LIKELY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...TRENDING TO MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH/SLW
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG






000
FXUS61 KALY 202308
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
708 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 6 PM EDT...MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL BREAKS PERSIST AT TIMES ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THERE HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL WEAK
RETURNS ON RADAR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT MOST OF THIS IS
EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE SFC...OR VIRGA. HOWEVER...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SPRINKLES COULD REACH THE GROUND ACROSS THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE BERKSHIRES...THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MAY LIMIT MUCH RAINFALL FROM
OCCURRING OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE MID LEVELS WILL HAVE MOISTENED UP A BIT...AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT. SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES
MAY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT A BIT FARTHER S AND E...ESP TOWARD
DAYBREAK...WHEN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. WILL GENERALLY KEEP
POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST TOWARD DAYBREAK...EXCEPT
FOR SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND
WARM ADVECTION. HAVE TRENDED MOST AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET
MOS...WITH GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S EXPECTED...WARMEST WITHIN
THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION...WHERE A LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHOULD PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL FORM A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. FOR OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE PRESENT...ESP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE QUITE LIMITED DURING THIS TIME. SO...IT APPEARS
THAT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WOULD BE THE BEST WAY TO
DESCRIBE RAINFALL CHANCES DURING TUESDAY...WITH SOME AREAS
POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING SOME LONGER STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER IN BETWEEN.
IN FACT...ACROSS SOME SOUTHERN AREAS...A FEW BREAKS OF SUN COULD
EVEN OCCUR AT TIMES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY THE
SE CATSKILLS...WHERE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE
INDICATED...AND RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PERSISTENT. FOR TUE
NT...AGAIN...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT
GREAT...WITH THE MAIN FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINING ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND COAST. WILL KEEP
CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS...BUT AGAIN...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT
BE RAINING ALL THE TIME AND IN ALL AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...ASSUMING
SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS...AND LIMITED PRECIP OCCUR...HAVE
SIDED A BIT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS FOR TUE MAXES...WITH
GENERALLY 55-60 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR TUE NT...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BACK
INTO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING PRESSURES TO OUR SOUTH...TEMPS
SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED-THU...MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY JET WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIME...BEFORE SLOWLY PIVOTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WED NT-THU. THE
NOSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET SEEMS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR WED AFTN...BEFORE PIVOTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND LATE WED NT AND THU. LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW LEVEL JET...ALONG WITH STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
295-300 K SURFACES...WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
SHOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT FOR A TIME WED NT-
THU. ALSO...A SECONDARY MAX IN PRECIP IS LIKELY ACROSS UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES MAY OCCUR IN THESE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS...WITH
GENERALLY 0.50-1 INCH IN THE VALLEYS. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT STRONG NE DOWNSLOPING WINDS COULD CREATE MORE DRAMATIC RAIN
SHADOWING IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SOME
AREAS COULD BE AT OR EVEN BELOW THE LOWER END OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED VALLEY RANGES. SO...BANDS OF RAIN ROTATING WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL BECOME MORE
PROMINENT FOR WED-THU...WITH A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN
POSSIBLE...ESP WED NT AND THU AM...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BRIEFLY
ORIENTS ITSELF TOWARD EASTERN NYS/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT WILL BE
QUITE RAW DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH BRISK N/NE WINDS. IN
FACT...SOME GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH COULD OCCUR AT TIMES ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NT. MAX TEMPS ON WED SHOULD ONLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH EVEN COOLER MAXES COULD OCCUR IF STEADIER
RAIN DEVELOPS. THU MAXES SHOULD ONLY REACH 45-50 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS FOR WED
NT/THU AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THINGS START OFF WET BUT QUICKLY TURN DRY AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF
CAPE COD HEADS UP THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...DRAWING WET
WEATHER TO A CLOSE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND PROVIDING FOR A PLEASANT LATE
OCTOBER WEEKEND.  A FEW WESTERN ADIRONDACK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RAPIDLY
MOVING...THOUGH VERY DRY...COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  BY EARLY MONDAY...THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE MADE IT ALL THE WAY TO SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL BE
HARDLY NOTICEABLE DOWN THERE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN MOSTLY THE 45 TO 60 DEGREE
RANGE...BUT WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES MILDER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
EXTENDED.  OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL LOCATIONS...BUT WILL FALL INTO
THE 40S EVERYWHERE.  NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD IN
ALBANY ARE IN THE THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
ENDING 00Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. CEILING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN IN
VFR RANGE AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z...SO WILL MENTION VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF SOME SHOWERS AFFECTING ALL
TAF SITES AFT 18Z SO HAVE PLACED 6SM -SHRA IN THE TAFS AFTER
THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM TONIGHT...THEN VARIABLE AT 3KT
OR LESS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 202308
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
708 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 6 PM EDT...MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL BREAKS PERSIST AT TIMES ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THERE HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL WEAK
RETURNS ON RADAR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT MOST OF THIS IS
EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE SFC...OR VIRGA. HOWEVER...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SPRINKLES COULD REACH THE GROUND ACROSS THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE BERKSHIRES...THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MAY LIMIT MUCH RAINFALL FROM
OCCURRING OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE MID LEVELS WILL HAVE MOISTENED UP A BIT...AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT. SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES
MAY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT A BIT FARTHER S AND E...ESP TOWARD
DAYBREAK...WHEN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. WILL GENERALLY KEEP
POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST TOWARD DAYBREAK...EXCEPT
FOR SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND
WARM ADVECTION. HAVE TRENDED MOST AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET
MOS...WITH GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S EXPECTED...WARMEST WITHIN
THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION...WHERE A LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHOULD PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL FORM A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. FOR OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE PRESENT...ESP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE QUITE LIMITED DURING THIS TIME. SO...IT APPEARS
THAT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WOULD BE THE BEST WAY TO
DESCRIBE RAINFALL CHANCES DURING TUESDAY...WITH SOME AREAS
POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING SOME LONGER STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER IN BETWEEN.
IN FACT...ACROSS SOME SOUTHERN AREAS...A FEW BREAKS OF SUN COULD
EVEN OCCUR AT TIMES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY THE
SE CATSKILLS...WHERE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE
INDICATED...AND RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PERSISTENT. FOR TUE
NT...AGAIN...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT
GREAT...WITH THE MAIN FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINING ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND COAST. WILL KEEP
CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS...BUT AGAIN...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT
BE RAINING ALL THE TIME AND IN ALL AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...ASSUMING
SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS...AND LIMITED PRECIP OCCUR...HAVE
SIDED A BIT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS FOR TUE MAXES...WITH
GENERALLY 55-60 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR TUE NT...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BACK
INTO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING PRESSURES TO OUR SOUTH...TEMPS
SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED-THU...MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY JET WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIME...BEFORE SLOWLY PIVOTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WED NT-THU. THE
NOSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET SEEMS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR WED AFTN...BEFORE PIVOTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND LATE WED NT AND THU. LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW LEVEL JET...ALONG WITH STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
295-300 K SURFACES...WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
SHOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT FOR A TIME WED NT-
THU. ALSO...A SECONDARY MAX IN PRECIP IS LIKELY ACROSS UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES MAY OCCUR IN THESE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS...WITH
GENERALLY 0.50-1 INCH IN THE VALLEYS. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT STRONG NE DOWNSLOPING WINDS COULD CREATE MORE DRAMATIC RAIN
SHADOWING IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SOME
AREAS COULD BE AT OR EVEN BELOW THE LOWER END OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED VALLEY RANGES. SO...BANDS OF RAIN ROTATING WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL BECOME MORE
PROMINENT FOR WED-THU...WITH A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN
POSSIBLE...ESP WED NT AND THU AM...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BRIEFLY
ORIENTS ITSELF TOWARD EASTERN NYS/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT WILL BE
QUITE RAW DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH BRISK N/NE WINDS. IN
FACT...SOME GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH COULD OCCUR AT TIMES ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NT. MAX TEMPS ON WED SHOULD ONLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH EVEN COOLER MAXES COULD OCCUR IF STEADIER
RAIN DEVELOPS. THU MAXES SHOULD ONLY REACH 45-50 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS FOR WED
NT/THU AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THINGS START OFF WET BUT QUICKLY TURN DRY AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF
CAPE COD HEADS UP THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...DRAWING WET
WEATHER TO A CLOSE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND PROVIDING FOR A PLEASANT LATE
OCTOBER WEEKEND.  A FEW WESTERN ADIRONDACK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RAPIDLY
MOVING...THOUGH VERY DRY...COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  BY EARLY MONDAY...THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE MADE IT ALL THE WAY TO SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL BE
HARDLY NOTICEABLE DOWN THERE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN MOSTLY THE 45 TO 60 DEGREE
RANGE...BUT WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES MILDER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
EXTENDED.  OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL LOCATIONS...BUT WILL FALL INTO
THE 40S EVERYWHERE.  NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD IN
ALBANY ARE IN THE THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
ENDING 00Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. CEILING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN IN
VFR RANGE AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z...SO WILL MENTION VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF SOME SHOWERS AFFECTING ALL
TAF SITES AFT 18Z SO HAVE PLACED 6SM -SHRA IN THE TAFS AFTER
THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM TONIGHT...THEN VARIABLE AT 3KT
OR LESS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 202308
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
708 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 6 PM EDT...MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL BREAKS PERSIST AT TIMES ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THERE HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL WEAK
RETURNS ON RADAR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT MOST OF THIS IS
EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE SFC...OR VIRGA. HOWEVER...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SPRINKLES COULD REACH THE GROUND ACROSS THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE BERKSHIRES...THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MAY LIMIT MUCH RAINFALL FROM
OCCURRING OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE MID LEVELS WILL HAVE MOISTENED UP A BIT...AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT. SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES
MAY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT A BIT FARTHER S AND E...ESP TOWARD
DAYBREAK...WHEN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. WILL GENERALLY KEEP
POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST TOWARD DAYBREAK...EXCEPT
FOR SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND
WARM ADVECTION. HAVE TRENDED MOST AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET
MOS...WITH GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S EXPECTED...WARMEST WITHIN
THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION...WHERE A LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHOULD PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL FORM A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. FOR OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE PRESENT...ESP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE QUITE LIMITED DURING THIS TIME. SO...IT APPEARS
THAT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WOULD BE THE BEST WAY TO
DESCRIBE RAINFALL CHANCES DURING TUESDAY...WITH SOME AREAS
POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING SOME LONGER STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER IN BETWEEN.
IN FACT...ACROSS SOME SOUTHERN AREAS...A FEW BREAKS OF SUN COULD
EVEN OCCUR AT TIMES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY THE
SE CATSKILLS...WHERE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE
INDICATED...AND RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PERSISTENT. FOR TUE
NT...AGAIN...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT
GREAT...WITH THE MAIN FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINING ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND COAST. WILL KEEP
CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS...BUT AGAIN...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT
BE RAINING ALL THE TIME AND IN ALL AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...ASSUMING
SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS...AND LIMITED PRECIP OCCUR...HAVE
SIDED A BIT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS FOR TUE MAXES...WITH
GENERALLY 55-60 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR TUE NT...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BACK
INTO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING PRESSURES TO OUR SOUTH...TEMPS
SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED-THU...MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY JET WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIME...BEFORE SLOWLY PIVOTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WED NT-THU. THE
NOSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET SEEMS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR WED AFTN...BEFORE PIVOTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND LATE WED NT AND THU. LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW LEVEL JET...ALONG WITH STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
295-300 K SURFACES...WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
SHOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT FOR A TIME WED NT-
THU. ALSO...A SECONDARY MAX IN PRECIP IS LIKELY ACROSS UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES MAY OCCUR IN THESE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS...WITH
GENERALLY 0.50-1 INCH IN THE VALLEYS. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT STRONG NE DOWNSLOPING WINDS COULD CREATE MORE DRAMATIC RAIN
SHADOWING IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SOME
AREAS COULD BE AT OR EVEN BELOW THE LOWER END OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED VALLEY RANGES. SO...BANDS OF RAIN ROTATING WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL BECOME MORE
PROMINENT FOR WED-THU...WITH A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN
POSSIBLE...ESP WED NT AND THU AM...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BRIEFLY
ORIENTS ITSELF TOWARD EASTERN NYS/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT WILL BE
QUITE RAW DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH BRISK N/NE WINDS. IN
FACT...SOME GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH COULD OCCUR AT TIMES ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NT. MAX TEMPS ON WED SHOULD ONLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH EVEN COOLER MAXES COULD OCCUR IF STEADIER
RAIN DEVELOPS. THU MAXES SHOULD ONLY REACH 45-50 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS FOR WED
NT/THU AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THINGS START OFF WET BUT QUICKLY TURN DRY AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF
CAPE COD HEADS UP THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...DRAWING WET
WEATHER TO A CLOSE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND PROVIDING FOR A PLEASANT LATE
OCTOBER WEEKEND.  A FEW WESTERN ADIRONDACK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RAPIDLY
MOVING...THOUGH VERY DRY...COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  BY EARLY MONDAY...THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE MADE IT ALL THE WAY TO SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL BE
HARDLY NOTICEABLE DOWN THERE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN MOSTLY THE 45 TO 60 DEGREE
RANGE...BUT WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES MILDER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
EXTENDED.  OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL LOCATIONS...BUT WILL FALL INTO
THE 40S EVERYWHERE.  NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD IN
ALBANY ARE IN THE THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
ENDING 00Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. CEILING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN IN
VFR RANGE AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z...SO WILL MENTION VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF SOME SHOWERS AFFECTING ALL
TAF SITES AFT 18Z SO HAVE PLACED 6SM -SHRA IN THE TAFS AFTER
THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM TONIGHT...THEN VARIABLE AT 3KT
OR LESS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 202308
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
708 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 6 PM EDT...MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL BREAKS PERSIST AT TIMES ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THERE HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL WEAK
RETURNS ON RADAR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT MOST OF THIS IS
EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE SFC...OR VIRGA. HOWEVER...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SPRINKLES COULD REACH THE GROUND ACROSS THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE BERKSHIRES...THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MAY LIMIT MUCH RAINFALL FROM
OCCURRING OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE MID LEVELS WILL HAVE MOISTENED UP A BIT...AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT. SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES
MAY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT A BIT FARTHER S AND E...ESP TOWARD
DAYBREAK...WHEN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. WILL GENERALLY KEEP
POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST TOWARD DAYBREAK...EXCEPT
FOR SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND
WARM ADVECTION. HAVE TRENDED MOST AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET
MOS...WITH GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S EXPECTED...WARMEST WITHIN
THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION...WHERE A LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHOULD PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL FORM A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. FOR OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE PRESENT...ESP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE QUITE LIMITED DURING THIS TIME. SO...IT APPEARS
THAT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WOULD BE THE BEST WAY TO
DESCRIBE RAINFALL CHANCES DURING TUESDAY...WITH SOME AREAS
POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING SOME LONGER STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER IN BETWEEN.
IN FACT...ACROSS SOME SOUTHERN AREAS...A FEW BREAKS OF SUN COULD
EVEN OCCUR AT TIMES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY THE
SE CATSKILLS...WHERE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE
INDICATED...AND RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PERSISTENT. FOR TUE
NT...AGAIN...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT
GREAT...WITH THE MAIN FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINING ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND COAST. WILL KEEP
CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS...BUT AGAIN...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT
BE RAINING ALL THE TIME AND IN ALL AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...ASSUMING
SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS...AND LIMITED PRECIP OCCUR...HAVE
SIDED A BIT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS FOR TUE MAXES...WITH
GENERALLY 55-60 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR TUE NT...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BACK
INTO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING PRESSURES TO OUR SOUTH...TEMPS
SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED-THU...MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY JET WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIME...BEFORE SLOWLY PIVOTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WED NT-THU. THE
NOSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET SEEMS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR WED AFTN...BEFORE PIVOTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND LATE WED NT AND THU. LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW LEVEL JET...ALONG WITH STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
295-300 K SURFACES...WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
SHOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT FOR A TIME WED NT-
THU. ALSO...A SECONDARY MAX IN PRECIP IS LIKELY ACROSS UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES MAY OCCUR IN THESE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS...WITH
GENERALLY 0.50-1 INCH IN THE VALLEYS. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT STRONG NE DOWNSLOPING WINDS COULD CREATE MORE DRAMATIC RAIN
SHADOWING IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SOME
AREAS COULD BE AT OR EVEN BELOW THE LOWER END OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED VALLEY RANGES. SO...BANDS OF RAIN ROTATING WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL BECOME MORE
PROMINENT FOR WED-THU...WITH A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN
POSSIBLE...ESP WED NT AND THU AM...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BRIEFLY
ORIENTS ITSELF TOWARD EASTERN NYS/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT WILL BE
QUITE RAW DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH BRISK N/NE WINDS. IN
FACT...SOME GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH COULD OCCUR AT TIMES ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NT. MAX TEMPS ON WED SHOULD ONLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH EVEN COOLER MAXES COULD OCCUR IF STEADIER
RAIN DEVELOPS. THU MAXES SHOULD ONLY REACH 45-50 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS FOR WED
NT/THU AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THINGS START OFF WET BUT QUICKLY TURN DRY AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF
CAPE COD HEADS UP THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...DRAWING WET
WEATHER TO A CLOSE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND PROVIDING FOR A PLEASANT LATE
OCTOBER WEEKEND.  A FEW WESTERN ADIRONDACK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RAPIDLY
MOVING...THOUGH VERY DRY...COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  BY EARLY MONDAY...THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE MADE IT ALL THE WAY TO SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL BE
HARDLY NOTICEABLE DOWN THERE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN MOSTLY THE 45 TO 60 DEGREE
RANGE...BUT WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES MILDER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
EXTENDED.  OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL LOCATIONS...BUT WILL FALL INTO
THE 40S EVERYWHERE.  NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD IN
ALBANY ARE IN THE THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
ENDING 00Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. CEILING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN IN
VFR RANGE AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z...SO WILL MENTION VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF SOME SHOWERS AFFECTING ALL
TAF SITES AFT 18Z SO HAVE PLACED 6SM -SHRA IN THE TAFS AFTER
THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM TONIGHT...THEN VARIABLE AT 3KT
OR LESS TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 202214
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
614 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 6 PM EDT...MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL BREAKS PERSIST AT TIMES ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THERE HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL WEAK
RETURNS ON RADAR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT MOST OF THIS IS
EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE SFC...OR VIRGA. HOWEVER...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SPRINKLES COULD REACH THE GROUND ACROSS THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE BERKSHIRES...THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MAY LIMIT MUCH RAINFALL FROM
OCCURRING OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE MID LEVELS WILL HAVE MOISTENED UP A BIT...AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT. SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES
MAY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT A BIT FARTHER S AND E...ESP TOWARD
DAYBREAK...WHEN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. WILL GENERALLY KEEP
POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST TOWARD DAYBREAK...EXCEPT
FOR SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND
WARM ADVECTION. HAVE TRENDED MOST AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET
MOS...WITH GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S EXPECTED...WARMEST WITHIN
THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION...WHERE A LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHOULD PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL FORM A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. FOR OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE PRESENT...ESP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE QUITE LIMITED DURING THIS TIME. SO...IT APPEARS
THAT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WOULD BE THE BEST WAY TO
DESCRIBE RAINFALL CHANCES DURING TUESDAY...WITH SOME AREAS
POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING SOME LONGER STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER IN BETWEEN.
IN FACT...ACROSS SOME SOUTHERN AREAS...A FEW BREAKS OF SUN COULD
EVEN OCCUR AT TIMES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY THE
SE CATSKILLS...WHERE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE
INDICATED...AND RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PERSISTENT. FOR TUE
NT...AGAIN...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT
GREAT...WITH THE MAIN FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINING ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND COAST. WILL KEEP
CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS...BUT AGAIN...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT
BE RAINING ALL THE TIME AND IN ALL AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...ASSUMING
SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS...AND LIMITED PRECIP OCCUR...HAVE
SIDED A BIT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS FOR TUE MAXES...WITH
GENERALLY 55-60 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR TUE NT...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BACK
INTO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING PRESSURES TO OUR SOUTH...TEMPS
SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED-THU...MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY JET WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIME...BEFORE SLOWLY PIVOTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WED NT-THU. THE
NOSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET SEEMS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR WED AFTN...BEFORE PIVOTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND LATE WED NT AND THU. LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW LEVEL JET...ALONG WITH STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
295-300 K SURFACES...WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
SHOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT FOR A TIME WED NT-
THU. ALSO...A SECONDARY MAX IN PRECIP IS LIKELY ACROSS UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES MAY OCCUR IN THESE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS...WITH
GENERALLY 0.50-1 INCH IN THE VALLEYS. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT STRONG NE DOWNSLOPING WINDS COULD CREATE MORE DRAMATIC RAIN
SHADOWING IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SOME
AREAS COULD BE AT OR EVEN BELOW THE LOWER END OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED VALLEY RANGES. SO...BANDS OF RAIN ROTATING WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL BECOME MORE
PROMINENT FOR WED-THU...WITH A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN
POSSIBLE...ESP WED NT AND THU AM...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BRIEFLY
ORIENTS ITSELF TOWARD EASTERN NYS/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT WILL BE
QUITE RAW DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH BRISK N/NE WINDS. IN
FACT...SOME GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH COULD OCCUR AT TIMES ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NT. MAX TEMPS ON WED SHOULD ONLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH EVEN COOLER MAXES COULD OCCUR IF STEADIER
RAIN DEVELOPS. THU MAXES SHOULD ONLY REACH 45-50 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS FOR WED
NT/THU AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THINGS START OFF WET BUT QUICKLY TURN DRY AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF
CAPE COD HEADS UP THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...DRAWING WET
WEATHER TO A CLOSE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND PROVIDING FOR A PLEASANT LATE
OCTOBER WEEKEND.  A FEW WESTERN ADIRONDACK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RAPIDLY
MOVING...THOUGH VERY DRY...COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  BY EARLY MONDAY...THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE MADE IT ALL THE WAY TO SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL BE
HARDLY NOTICEABLE DOWN THERE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN MOSTLY THE 45 TO 60 DEGREE
RANGE...BUT WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES MILDER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
EXTENDED.  OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL LOCATIONS...BUT WILL FALL INTO
THE 40S EVERYWHERE.  NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD IN
ALBANY ARE IN THE THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
ENDING 18Z TUESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALREADY SPREADING
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. CEILING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT
REMAIN IN VFR RANGE AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z...SO WILL MENTION VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME SHOWERS AFFECTING
ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z-18Z BUT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO
BE TOO LIMITED TO INDICATE A TEMPO OR EVEN A PROB30...BUT LATER
TAF ISSUANCES WILL BETTER RESOLVE HOW MUCH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
THERE WILL BE TUESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-8 KTS THIS AFTERNOON..THEN
DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM TONIGHT...THEN VARIABLE AT 5KT OR LESS
TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 202214
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
614 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 6 PM EDT...MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL BREAKS PERSIST AT TIMES ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THERE HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL WEAK
RETURNS ON RADAR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT MOST OF THIS IS
EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE SFC...OR VIRGA. HOWEVER...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SPRINKLES COULD REACH THE GROUND ACROSS THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE BERKSHIRES...THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MAY LIMIT MUCH RAINFALL FROM
OCCURRING OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE MID LEVELS WILL HAVE MOISTENED UP A BIT...AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT. SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES
MAY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT A BIT FARTHER S AND E...ESP TOWARD
DAYBREAK...WHEN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. WILL GENERALLY KEEP
POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST TOWARD DAYBREAK...EXCEPT
FOR SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND
WARM ADVECTION. HAVE TRENDED MOST AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET
MOS...WITH GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S EXPECTED...WARMEST WITHIN
THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION...WHERE A LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHOULD PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL FORM A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. FOR OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE PRESENT...ESP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE QUITE LIMITED DURING THIS TIME. SO...IT APPEARS
THAT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WOULD BE THE BEST WAY TO
DESCRIBE RAINFALL CHANCES DURING TUESDAY...WITH SOME AREAS
POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING SOME LONGER STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER IN BETWEEN.
IN FACT...ACROSS SOME SOUTHERN AREAS...A FEW BREAKS OF SUN COULD
EVEN OCCUR AT TIMES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY THE
SE CATSKILLS...WHERE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE
INDICATED...AND RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PERSISTENT. FOR TUE
NT...AGAIN...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT
GREAT...WITH THE MAIN FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINING ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND COAST. WILL KEEP
CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS...BUT AGAIN...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT
BE RAINING ALL THE TIME AND IN ALL AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...ASSUMING
SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS...AND LIMITED PRECIP OCCUR...HAVE
SIDED A BIT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS FOR TUE MAXES...WITH
GENERALLY 55-60 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR TUE NT...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BACK
INTO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING PRESSURES TO OUR SOUTH...TEMPS
SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED-THU...MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY JET WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIME...BEFORE SLOWLY PIVOTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WED NT-THU. THE
NOSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET SEEMS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR WED AFTN...BEFORE PIVOTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND LATE WED NT AND THU. LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW LEVEL JET...ALONG WITH STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
295-300 K SURFACES...WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
SHOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT FOR A TIME WED NT-
THU. ALSO...A SECONDARY MAX IN PRECIP IS LIKELY ACROSS UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES MAY OCCUR IN THESE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS...WITH
GENERALLY 0.50-1 INCH IN THE VALLEYS. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT STRONG NE DOWNSLOPING WINDS COULD CREATE MORE DRAMATIC RAIN
SHADOWING IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SOME
AREAS COULD BE AT OR EVEN BELOW THE LOWER END OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED VALLEY RANGES. SO...BANDS OF RAIN ROTATING WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL BECOME MORE
PROMINENT FOR WED-THU...WITH A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN
POSSIBLE...ESP WED NT AND THU AM...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BRIEFLY
ORIENTS ITSELF TOWARD EASTERN NYS/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT WILL BE
QUITE RAW DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH BRISK N/NE WINDS. IN
FACT...SOME GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH COULD OCCUR AT TIMES ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NT. MAX TEMPS ON WED SHOULD ONLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH EVEN COOLER MAXES COULD OCCUR IF STEADIER
RAIN DEVELOPS. THU MAXES SHOULD ONLY REACH 45-50 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS FOR WED
NT/THU AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THINGS START OFF WET BUT QUICKLY TURN DRY AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF
CAPE COD HEADS UP THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...DRAWING WET
WEATHER TO A CLOSE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND PROVIDING FOR A PLEASANT LATE
OCTOBER WEEKEND.  A FEW WESTERN ADIRONDACK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RAPIDLY
MOVING...THOUGH VERY DRY...COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  BY EARLY MONDAY...THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE MADE IT ALL THE WAY TO SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL BE
HARDLY NOTICEABLE DOWN THERE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN MOSTLY THE 45 TO 60 DEGREE
RANGE...BUT WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES MILDER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
EXTENDED.  OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL LOCATIONS...BUT WILL FALL INTO
THE 40S EVERYWHERE.  NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD IN
ALBANY ARE IN THE THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
ENDING 18Z TUESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALREADY SPREADING
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. CEILING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT
REMAIN IN VFR RANGE AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z...SO WILL MENTION VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME SHOWERS AFFECTING
ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z-18Z BUT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO
BE TOO LIMITED TO INDICATE A TEMPO OR EVEN A PROB30...BUT LATER
TAF ISSUANCES WILL BETTER RESOLVE HOW MUCH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
THERE WILL BE TUESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-8 KTS THIS AFTERNOON..THEN
DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM TONIGHT...THEN VARIABLE AT 5KT OR LESS
TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 202214
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
614 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 6 PM EDT...MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL BREAKS PERSIST AT TIMES ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THERE HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL WEAK
RETURNS ON RADAR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT MOST OF THIS IS
EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE SFC...OR VIRGA. HOWEVER...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SPRINKLES COULD REACH THE GROUND ACROSS THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE BERKSHIRES...THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MAY LIMIT MUCH RAINFALL FROM
OCCURRING OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE MID LEVELS WILL HAVE MOISTENED UP A BIT...AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT. SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES
MAY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT A BIT FARTHER S AND E...ESP TOWARD
DAYBREAK...WHEN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. WILL GENERALLY KEEP
POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST TOWARD DAYBREAK...EXCEPT
FOR SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND
WARM ADVECTION. HAVE TRENDED MOST AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET
MOS...WITH GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S EXPECTED...WARMEST WITHIN
THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION...WHERE A LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHOULD PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL FORM A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. FOR OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE PRESENT...ESP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE QUITE LIMITED DURING THIS TIME. SO...IT APPEARS
THAT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WOULD BE THE BEST WAY TO
DESCRIBE RAINFALL CHANCES DURING TUESDAY...WITH SOME AREAS
POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING SOME LONGER STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER IN BETWEEN.
IN FACT...ACROSS SOME SOUTHERN AREAS...A FEW BREAKS OF SUN COULD
EVEN OCCUR AT TIMES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY THE
SE CATSKILLS...WHERE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE
INDICATED...AND RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PERSISTENT. FOR TUE
NT...AGAIN...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT
GREAT...WITH THE MAIN FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINING ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND COAST. WILL KEEP
CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS...BUT AGAIN...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT
BE RAINING ALL THE TIME AND IN ALL AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...ASSUMING
SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS...AND LIMITED PRECIP OCCUR...HAVE
SIDED A BIT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS FOR TUE MAXES...WITH
GENERALLY 55-60 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR TUE NT...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BACK
INTO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING PRESSURES TO OUR SOUTH...TEMPS
SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED-THU...MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY JET WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIME...BEFORE SLOWLY PIVOTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WED NT-THU. THE
NOSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET SEEMS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR WED AFTN...BEFORE PIVOTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND LATE WED NT AND THU. LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW LEVEL JET...ALONG WITH STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
295-300 K SURFACES...WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
SHOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT FOR A TIME WED NT-
THU. ALSO...A SECONDARY MAX IN PRECIP IS LIKELY ACROSS UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES MAY OCCUR IN THESE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS...WITH
GENERALLY 0.50-1 INCH IN THE VALLEYS. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT STRONG NE DOWNSLOPING WINDS COULD CREATE MORE DRAMATIC RAIN
SHADOWING IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SOME
AREAS COULD BE AT OR EVEN BELOW THE LOWER END OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED VALLEY RANGES. SO...BANDS OF RAIN ROTATING WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL BECOME MORE
PROMINENT FOR WED-THU...WITH A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN
POSSIBLE...ESP WED NT AND THU AM...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BRIEFLY
ORIENTS ITSELF TOWARD EASTERN NYS/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT WILL BE
QUITE RAW DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH BRISK N/NE WINDS. IN
FACT...SOME GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH COULD OCCUR AT TIMES ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NT. MAX TEMPS ON WED SHOULD ONLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH EVEN COOLER MAXES COULD OCCUR IF STEADIER
RAIN DEVELOPS. THU MAXES SHOULD ONLY REACH 45-50 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS FOR WED
NT/THU AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THINGS START OFF WET BUT QUICKLY TURN DRY AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF
CAPE COD HEADS UP THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...DRAWING WET
WEATHER TO A CLOSE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND PROVIDING FOR A PLEASANT LATE
OCTOBER WEEKEND.  A FEW WESTERN ADIRONDACK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RAPIDLY
MOVING...THOUGH VERY DRY...COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  BY EARLY MONDAY...THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE MADE IT ALL THE WAY TO SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL BE
HARDLY NOTICEABLE DOWN THERE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN MOSTLY THE 45 TO 60 DEGREE
RANGE...BUT WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES MILDER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
EXTENDED.  OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL LOCATIONS...BUT WILL FALL INTO
THE 40S EVERYWHERE.  NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD IN
ALBANY ARE IN THE THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
ENDING 18Z TUESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALREADY SPREADING
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. CEILING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT
REMAIN IN VFR RANGE AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z...SO WILL MENTION VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME SHOWERS AFFECTING
ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z-18Z BUT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO
BE TOO LIMITED TO INDICATE A TEMPO OR EVEN A PROB30...BUT LATER
TAF ISSUANCES WILL BETTER RESOLVE HOW MUCH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
THERE WILL BE TUESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-8 KTS THIS AFTERNOON..THEN
DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM TONIGHT...THEN VARIABLE AT 5KT OR LESS
TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 202214
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
614 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 6 PM EDT...MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL BREAKS PERSIST AT TIMES ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THERE HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL WEAK
RETURNS ON RADAR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT MOST OF THIS IS
EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE SFC...OR VIRGA. HOWEVER...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SPRINKLES COULD REACH THE GROUND ACROSS THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE BERKSHIRES...THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MAY LIMIT MUCH RAINFALL FROM
OCCURRING OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE MID LEVELS WILL HAVE MOISTENED UP A BIT...AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT. SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES
MAY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT A BIT FARTHER S AND E...ESP TOWARD
DAYBREAK...WHEN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. WILL GENERALLY KEEP
POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST TOWARD DAYBREAK...EXCEPT
FOR SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND
WARM ADVECTION. HAVE TRENDED MOST AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET
MOS...WITH GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S EXPECTED...WARMEST WITHIN
THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION...WHERE A LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHOULD PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL FORM A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. FOR OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE PRESENT...ESP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE QUITE LIMITED DURING THIS TIME. SO...IT APPEARS
THAT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WOULD BE THE BEST WAY TO
DESCRIBE RAINFALL CHANCES DURING TUESDAY...WITH SOME AREAS
POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING SOME LONGER STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER IN BETWEEN.
IN FACT...ACROSS SOME SOUTHERN AREAS...A FEW BREAKS OF SUN COULD
EVEN OCCUR AT TIMES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY THE
SE CATSKILLS...WHERE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE
INDICATED...AND RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PERSISTENT. FOR TUE
NT...AGAIN...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT
GREAT...WITH THE MAIN FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINING ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND COAST. WILL KEEP
CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS...BUT AGAIN...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT
BE RAINING ALL THE TIME AND IN ALL AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...ASSUMING
SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS...AND LIMITED PRECIP OCCUR...HAVE
SIDED A BIT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS FOR TUE MAXES...WITH
GENERALLY 55-60 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR TUE NT...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BACK
INTO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING PRESSURES TO OUR SOUTH...TEMPS
SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED-THU...MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY JET WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIME...BEFORE SLOWLY PIVOTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WED NT-THU. THE
NOSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET SEEMS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR WED AFTN...BEFORE PIVOTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND LATE WED NT AND THU. LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW LEVEL JET...ALONG WITH STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
295-300 K SURFACES...WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
SHOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT FOR A TIME WED NT-
THU. ALSO...A SECONDARY MAX IN PRECIP IS LIKELY ACROSS UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES MAY OCCUR IN THESE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS...WITH
GENERALLY 0.50-1 INCH IN THE VALLEYS. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT STRONG NE DOWNSLOPING WINDS COULD CREATE MORE DRAMATIC RAIN
SHADOWING IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SOME
AREAS COULD BE AT OR EVEN BELOW THE LOWER END OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED VALLEY RANGES. SO...BANDS OF RAIN ROTATING WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL BECOME MORE
PROMINENT FOR WED-THU...WITH A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN
POSSIBLE...ESP WED NT AND THU AM...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BRIEFLY
ORIENTS ITSELF TOWARD EASTERN NYS/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT WILL BE
QUITE RAW DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH BRISK N/NE WINDS. IN
FACT...SOME GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH COULD OCCUR AT TIMES ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NT. MAX TEMPS ON WED SHOULD ONLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH EVEN COOLER MAXES COULD OCCUR IF STEADIER
RAIN DEVELOPS. THU MAXES SHOULD ONLY REACH 45-50 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS FOR WED
NT/THU AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THINGS START OFF WET BUT QUICKLY TURN DRY AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF
CAPE COD HEADS UP THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...DRAWING WET
WEATHER TO A CLOSE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND PROVIDING FOR A PLEASANT LATE
OCTOBER WEEKEND.  A FEW WESTERN ADIRONDACK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RAPIDLY
MOVING...THOUGH VERY DRY...COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  BY EARLY MONDAY...THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE MADE IT ALL THE WAY TO SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL BE
HARDLY NOTICEABLE DOWN THERE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN MOSTLY THE 45 TO 60 DEGREE
RANGE...BUT WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES MILDER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
EXTENDED.  OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL LOCATIONS...BUT WILL FALL INTO
THE 40S EVERYWHERE.  NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD IN
ALBANY ARE IN THE THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
ENDING 18Z TUESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALREADY SPREADING
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. CEILING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT
REMAIN IN VFR RANGE AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z...SO WILL MENTION VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME SHOWERS AFFECTING
ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z-18Z BUT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO
BE TOO LIMITED TO INDICATE A TEMPO OR EVEN A PROB30...BUT LATER
TAF ISSUANCES WILL BETTER RESOLVE HOW MUCH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
THERE WILL BE TUESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-8 KTS THIS AFTERNOON..THEN
DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM TONIGHT...THEN VARIABLE AT 5KT OR LESS
TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 202214
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
614 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 6 PM EDT...MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL BREAKS PERSIST AT TIMES ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THERE HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL WEAK
RETURNS ON RADAR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT MOST OF THIS IS
EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE SFC...OR VIRGA. HOWEVER...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SPRINKLES COULD REACH THE GROUND ACROSS THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE BERKSHIRES...THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MAY LIMIT MUCH RAINFALL FROM
OCCURRING OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE MID LEVELS WILL HAVE MOISTENED UP A BIT...AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT. SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES
MAY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT A BIT FARTHER S AND E...ESP TOWARD
DAYBREAK...WHEN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. WILL GENERALLY KEEP
POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST TOWARD DAYBREAK...EXCEPT
FOR SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND
WARM ADVECTION. HAVE TRENDED MOST AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET
MOS...WITH GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S EXPECTED...WARMEST WITHIN
THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION...WHERE A LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHOULD PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL FORM A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. FOR OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE PRESENT...ESP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE QUITE LIMITED DURING THIS TIME. SO...IT APPEARS
THAT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WOULD BE THE BEST WAY TO
DESCRIBE RAINFALL CHANCES DURING TUESDAY...WITH SOME AREAS
POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING SOME LONGER STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER IN BETWEEN.
IN FACT...ACROSS SOME SOUTHERN AREAS...A FEW BREAKS OF SUN COULD
EVEN OCCUR AT TIMES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY THE
SE CATSKILLS...WHERE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE
INDICATED...AND RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PERSISTENT. FOR TUE
NT...AGAIN...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT
GREAT...WITH THE MAIN FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINING ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND COAST. WILL KEEP
CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS...BUT AGAIN...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT
BE RAINING ALL THE TIME AND IN ALL AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...ASSUMING
SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS...AND LIMITED PRECIP OCCUR...HAVE
SIDED A BIT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS FOR TUE MAXES...WITH
GENERALLY 55-60 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR TUE NT...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BACK
INTO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING PRESSURES TO OUR SOUTH...TEMPS
SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED-THU...MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY JET WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIME...BEFORE SLOWLY PIVOTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WED NT-THU. THE
NOSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET SEEMS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR WED AFTN...BEFORE PIVOTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND LATE WED NT AND THU. LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW LEVEL JET...ALONG WITH STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
295-300 K SURFACES...WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
SHOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT FOR A TIME WED NT-
THU. ALSO...A SECONDARY MAX IN PRECIP IS LIKELY ACROSS UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES MAY OCCUR IN THESE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS...WITH
GENERALLY 0.50-1 INCH IN THE VALLEYS. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT STRONG NE DOWNSLOPING WINDS COULD CREATE MORE DRAMATIC RAIN
SHADOWING IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SOME
AREAS COULD BE AT OR EVEN BELOW THE LOWER END OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED VALLEY RANGES. SO...BANDS OF RAIN ROTATING WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL BECOME MORE
PROMINENT FOR WED-THU...WITH A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN
POSSIBLE...ESP WED NT AND THU AM...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BRIEFLY
ORIENTS ITSELF TOWARD EASTERN NYS/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT WILL BE
QUITE RAW DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH BRISK N/NE WINDS. IN
FACT...SOME GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH COULD OCCUR AT TIMES ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NT. MAX TEMPS ON WED SHOULD ONLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH EVEN COOLER MAXES COULD OCCUR IF STEADIER
RAIN DEVELOPS. THU MAXES SHOULD ONLY REACH 45-50 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS FOR WED
NT/THU AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THINGS START OFF WET BUT QUICKLY TURN DRY AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF
CAPE COD HEADS UP THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...DRAWING WET
WEATHER TO A CLOSE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND PROVIDING FOR A PLEASANT LATE
OCTOBER WEEKEND.  A FEW WESTERN ADIRONDACK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RAPIDLY
MOVING...THOUGH VERY DRY...COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  BY EARLY MONDAY...THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE MADE IT ALL THE WAY TO SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL BE
HARDLY NOTICEABLE DOWN THERE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN MOSTLY THE 45 TO 60 DEGREE
RANGE...BUT WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES MILDER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
EXTENDED.  OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL LOCATIONS...BUT WILL FALL INTO
THE 40S EVERYWHERE.  NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD IN
ALBANY ARE IN THE THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
ENDING 18Z TUESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALREADY SPREADING
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. CEILING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT
REMAIN IN VFR RANGE AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z...SO WILL MENTION VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME SHOWERS AFFECTING
ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z-18Z BUT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO
BE TOO LIMITED TO INDICATE A TEMPO OR EVEN A PROB30...BUT LATER
TAF ISSUANCES WILL BETTER RESOLVE HOW MUCH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
THERE WILL BE TUESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-8 KTS THIS AFTERNOON..THEN
DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM TONIGHT...THEN VARIABLE AT 5KT OR LESS
TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 202214
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
614 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 6 PM EDT...MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL BREAKS PERSIST AT TIMES ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THERE HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL WEAK
RETURNS ON RADAR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT MOST OF THIS IS
EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE SFC...OR VIRGA. HOWEVER...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SPRINKLES COULD REACH THE GROUND ACROSS THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE BERKSHIRES...THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MAY LIMIT MUCH RAINFALL FROM
OCCURRING OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE MID LEVELS WILL HAVE MOISTENED UP A BIT...AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT. SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES
MAY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT A BIT FARTHER S AND E...ESP TOWARD
DAYBREAK...WHEN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. WILL GENERALLY KEEP
POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST TOWARD DAYBREAK...EXCEPT
FOR SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND
WARM ADVECTION. HAVE TRENDED MOST AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET
MOS...WITH GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S EXPECTED...WARMEST WITHIN
THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION...WHERE A LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHOULD PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL FORM A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. FOR OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE PRESENT...ESP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE QUITE LIMITED DURING THIS TIME. SO...IT APPEARS
THAT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WOULD BE THE BEST WAY TO
DESCRIBE RAINFALL CHANCES DURING TUESDAY...WITH SOME AREAS
POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING SOME LONGER STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER IN BETWEEN.
IN FACT...ACROSS SOME SOUTHERN AREAS...A FEW BREAKS OF SUN COULD
EVEN OCCUR AT TIMES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY THE
SE CATSKILLS...WHERE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE
INDICATED...AND RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PERSISTENT. FOR TUE
NT...AGAIN...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT
GREAT...WITH THE MAIN FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINING ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND COAST. WILL KEEP
CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS...BUT AGAIN...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT
BE RAINING ALL THE TIME AND IN ALL AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...ASSUMING
SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS...AND LIMITED PRECIP OCCUR...HAVE
SIDED A BIT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS FOR TUE MAXES...WITH
GENERALLY 55-60 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR TUE NT...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BACK
INTO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING PRESSURES TO OUR SOUTH...TEMPS
SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED-THU...MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY JET WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIME...BEFORE SLOWLY PIVOTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WED NT-THU. THE
NOSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET SEEMS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR WED AFTN...BEFORE PIVOTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND LATE WED NT AND THU. LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW LEVEL JET...ALONG WITH STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
295-300 K SURFACES...WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
SHOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT FOR A TIME WED NT-
THU. ALSO...A SECONDARY MAX IN PRECIP IS LIKELY ACROSS UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES MAY OCCUR IN THESE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS...WITH
GENERALLY 0.50-1 INCH IN THE VALLEYS. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT STRONG NE DOWNSLOPING WINDS COULD CREATE MORE DRAMATIC RAIN
SHADOWING IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SOME
AREAS COULD BE AT OR EVEN BELOW THE LOWER END OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED VALLEY RANGES. SO...BANDS OF RAIN ROTATING WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL BECOME MORE
PROMINENT FOR WED-THU...WITH A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN
POSSIBLE...ESP WED NT AND THU AM...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BRIEFLY
ORIENTS ITSELF TOWARD EASTERN NYS/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT WILL BE
QUITE RAW DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH BRISK N/NE WINDS. IN
FACT...SOME GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH COULD OCCUR AT TIMES ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NT. MAX TEMPS ON WED SHOULD ONLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH EVEN COOLER MAXES COULD OCCUR IF STEADIER
RAIN DEVELOPS. THU MAXES SHOULD ONLY REACH 45-50 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS FOR WED
NT/THU AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THINGS START OFF WET BUT QUICKLY TURN DRY AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF
CAPE COD HEADS UP THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...DRAWING WET
WEATHER TO A CLOSE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND PROVIDING FOR A PLEASANT LATE
OCTOBER WEEKEND.  A FEW WESTERN ADIRONDACK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RAPIDLY
MOVING...THOUGH VERY DRY...COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  BY EARLY MONDAY...THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE MADE IT ALL THE WAY TO SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL BE
HARDLY NOTICEABLE DOWN THERE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN MOSTLY THE 45 TO 60 DEGREE
RANGE...BUT WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES MILDER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
EXTENDED.  OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL LOCATIONS...BUT WILL FALL INTO
THE 40S EVERYWHERE.  NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD IN
ALBANY ARE IN THE THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
ENDING 18Z TUESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALREADY SPREADING
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. CEILING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT
REMAIN IN VFR RANGE AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z...SO WILL MENTION VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME SHOWERS AFFECTING
ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z-18Z BUT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO
BE TOO LIMITED TO INDICATE A TEMPO OR EVEN A PROB30...BUT LATER
TAF ISSUANCES WILL BETTER RESOLVE HOW MUCH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
THERE WILL BE TUESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-8 KTS THIS AFTERNOON..THEN
DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM TONIGHT...THEN VARIABLE AT 5KT OR LESS
TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 202054
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
454 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 4 PM EDT...MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL BREAKS PERSIST AT TIMES ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THERE HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL WEAK RETURNS
ON RADAR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT MOST OF THIS IS EVAPORATING
BEFORE REACHING THE SFC...OR VIRGA. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
A FEW SPRINKLES COULD REACH THE GROUND ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF
THE BERKSHIRES...AND THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MAY LIMIT MUCH RAINFALL FROM
OCCURRING OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE MID LEVELS WILL HAVE MOISTENED UP A BIT...AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT. SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES
MAY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT A BIT FARTHER S AND E...ESP TOWARD
DAYBREAK...WHEN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. WILL GENERALLY KEEP
POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST TOWARD DAYBREAK...EXCEPT
FOR SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND
WARM ADVECTION. HAVE TRENDED MOST AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET
MOS...WITH GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S EXPECTED...WARMEST WITHIN
THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION...WHERE A LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHOULD PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL FORM A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. FOR OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE PRESENT...ESP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE QUITE LIMITED DURING THIS TIME. SO...IT APPEARS
THAT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WOULD BE THE BEST WAY TO
DESCRIBE RAINFALL CHANCES DURING TUESDAY...WITH SOME AREAS
POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING SOME LONGER STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER IN BETWEEN.
IN FACT...ACROSS SOME SOUTHERN AREAS...A FEW BREAKS OF SUN COULD
EVEN OCCUR AT TIMES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY THE
SE CATSKILLS...WHERE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE
INDICATED...AND RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PERSISTENT. FOR TUE
NT...AGAIN...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT
GREAT...WITH THE MAIN FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINING ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND COAST. WILL KEEP
CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS...BUT AGAIN...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT
BE RAINING ALL THE TIME AND IN ALL AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...ASSUMING
SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS...AND LIMITED PRECIP OCCUR...HAVE
SIDED A BIT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS FOR TUE MAXES...WITH
GENERALLY 55-60 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR TUE NT...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BACK
INTO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING PRESSURES TO OUR SOUTH...TEMPS
SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED-THU...MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY JET WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIME...BEFORE SLOWLY PIVOTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WED NT-THU. THE
NOSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET SEEMS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR WED AFTN...BEFORE PIVOTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND LATE WED NT AND THU. LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW LEVEL JET...ALONG WITH STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
295-300 K SURFACES...WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
SHOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT FOR A TIME WED NT-
THU. ALSO...A SECONDARY MAX IN PRECIP IS LIKELY ACROSS UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES MAY OCCUR IN THESE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS...WITH
GENERALLY 0.50-1 INCH IN THE VALLEYS. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT STRONG NE DOWNSLOPING WINDS COULD CREATE MORE DRAMATIC RAIN
SHADOWING IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SOME
AREAS COULD BE AT OR EVEN BELOW THE LOWER END OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED VALLEY RANGES. SO...BANDS OF RAIN ROTATING WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL BECOME MORE
PROMINENT FOR WED-THU...WITH A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN
POSSIBLE...ESP WED NT AND THU AM...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BRIEFLY
ORIENTS ITSELF TOWARD EASTERN NYS/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT WILL BE
QUITE RAW DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH BRISK N/NE WINDS. IN
FACT...SOME GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH COULD OCCUR AT TIMES ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NT. MAX TEMPS ON WED SHOULD ONLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH EVEN COOLER MAXES COULD OCCUR IF STEADIER
RAIN DEVELOPS. THU MAXES SHOULD ONLY REACH 45-50 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS FOR WED
NT/THU AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THINGS START OFF WET BUT QUICKLY TURN DRY AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF
CAPE COD HEADS UP THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...DRAWING WET
WEATHER TO A CLOSE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND PROVIDING FOR A PLEASANT LATE
OCTOBER WEEKEND.  A FEW WESTERN ADIRONDACK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RAPIDLY
MOVING...THOUGH VERY DRY...COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  BY EARLY MONDAY...THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE MADE IT ALL THE WAY TO SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL BE
HARDLY NOTICEABLE DOWN THERE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN MOSTLY THE 45 TO 60 DEGREE
RANGE...BUT WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES MILDER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
EXTENDED.  OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL LOCATIONS...BUT WILL FALL INTO
THE 40S EVERYWHERE.  NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD IN
ALBANY ARE IN THE THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
ENDING 18Z TUESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALREADY SPREADING
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. CEILING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT
REMAIN IN VFR RANGE AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z...SO WILL MENTION VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME SHOWERS AFFECTING
ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z-18Z BUT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO
BE TOO LIMITED TO INDICATE A TEMPO OR EVEN A PROB30...BUT LATER
TAF ISSUANCES WILL BETTER RESOLVE HOW MUCH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
THERE WILL BE TUESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-8 KTS THIS AFTERNOON..THEN
DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM TONIGHT...THEN VARIABLE AT 5KT OR LESS
TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 202054
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
454 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 4 PM EDT...MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL BREAKS PERSIST AT TIMES ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THERE HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL WEAK RETURNS
ON RADAR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT MOST OF THIS IS EVAPORATING
BEFORE REACHING THE SFC...OR VIRGA. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
A FEW SPRINKLES COULD REACH THE GROUND ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF
THE BERKSHIRES...AND THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MAY LIMIT MUCH RAINFALL FROM
OCCURRING OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE MID LEVELS WILL HAVE MOISTENED UP A BIT...AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT. SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES
MAY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT A BIT FARTHER S AND E...ESP TOWARD
DAYBREAK...WHEN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. WILL GENERALLY KEEP
POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST TOWARD DAYBREAK...EXCEPT
FOR SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND
WARM ADVECTION. HAVE TRENDED MOST AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET
MOS...WITH GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S EXPECTED...WARMEST WITHIN
THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION...WHERE A LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHOULD PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL FORM A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. FOR OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE PRESENT...ESP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE QUITE LIMITED DURING THIS TIME. SO...IT APPEARS
THAT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WOULD BE THE BEST WAY TO
DESCRIBE RAINFALL CHANCES DURING TUESDAY...WITH SOME AREAS
POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING SOME LONGER STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER IN BETWEEN.
IN FACT...ACROSS SOME SOUTHERN AREAS...A FEW BREAKS OF SUN COULD
EVEN OCCUR AT TIMES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY THE
SE CATSKILLS...WHERE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE
INDICATED...AND RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PERSISTENT. FOR TUE
NT...AGAIN...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT
GREAT...WITH THE MAIN FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINING ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND COAST. WILL KEEP
CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS...BUT AGAIN...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT
BE RAINING ALL THE TIME AND IN ALL AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...ASSUMING
SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS...AND LIMITED PRECIP OCCUR...HAVE
SIDED A BIT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS FOR TUE MAXES...WITH
GENERALLY 55-60 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR TUE NT...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BACK
INTO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING PRESSURES TO OUR SOUTH...TEMPS
SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED-THU...MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY JET WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIME...BEFORE SLOWLY PIVOTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WED NT-THU. THE
NOSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET SEEMS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR WED AFTN...BEFORE PIVOTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND LATE WED NT AND THU. LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW LEVEL JET...ALONG WITH STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
295-300 K SURFACES...WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
SHOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT FOR A TIME WED NT-
THU. ALSO...A SECONDARY MAX IN PRECIP IS LIKELY ACROSS UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES MAY OCCUR IN THESE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS...WITH
GENERALLY 0.50-1 INCH IN THE VALLEYS. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT STRONG NE DOWNSLOPING WINDS COULD CREATE MORE DRAMATIC RAIN
SHADOWING IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SOME
AREAS COULD BE AT OR EVEN BELOW THE LOWER END OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED VALLEY RANGES. SO...BANDS OF RAIN ROTATING WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL BECOME MORE
PROMINENT FOR WED-THU...WITH A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN
POSSIBLE...ESP WED NT AND THU AM...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BRIEFLY
ORIENTS ITSELF TOWARD EASTERN NYS/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT WILL BE
QUITE RAW DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH BRISK N/NE WINDS. IN
FACT...SOME GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH COULD OCCUR AT TIMES ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NT. MAX TEMPS ON WED SHOULD ONLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH EVEN COOLER MAXES COULD OCCUR IF STEADIER
RAIN DEVELOPS. THU MAXES SHOULD ONLY REACH 45-50 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS FOR WED
NT/THU AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THINGS START OFF WET BUT QUICKLY TURN DRY AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF
CAPE COD HEADS UP THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...DRAWING WET
WEATHER TO A CLOSE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND PROVIDING FOR A PLEASANT LATE
OCTOBER WEEKEND.  A FEW WESTERN ADIRONDACK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RAPIDLY
MOVING...THOUGH VERY DRY...COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  BY EARLY MONDAY...THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE MADE IT ALL THE WAY TO SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL BE
HARDLY NOTICEABLE DOWN THERE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN MOSTLY THE 45 TO 60 DEGREE
RANGE...BUT WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES MILDER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
EXTENDED.  OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL LOCATIONS...BUT WILL FALL INTO
THE 40S EVERYWHERE.  NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD IN
ALBANY ARE IN THE THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
ENDING 18Z TUESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALREADY SPREADING
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. CEILING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT
REMAIN IN VFR RANGE AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z...SO WILL MENTION VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME SHOWERS AFFECTING
ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z-18Z BUT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO
BE TOO LIMITED TO INDICATE A TEMPO OR EVEN A PROB30...BUT LATER
TAF ISSUANCES WILL BETTER RESOLVE HOW MUCH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
THERE WILL BE TUESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-8 KTS THIS AFTERNOON..THEN
DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM TONIGHT...THEN VARIABLE AT 5KT OR LESS
TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KBTV 202008
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
408 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT TO
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY LATE TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT, THE REST OF THE
WEEK WILL BE RAINY AND COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION, JUST FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT THAT STILL HAVE SOME
SUN. NOT EXPECTING THOSE CLEAR SPOTS TO LAST MUCH LONGER. RADAR
SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN UP ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER, WITH OTHER
SHOWERS FARTHER BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
LAKE ONTARIO. THESE SHOWERS ARE ALSO MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND FAR NORTHERN VERMONT DURING
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAVY RAIN, SO
QPF SHOULD BE 1/10" OR LESS.

CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH. SEEMED LIKE THE
VARIOUS MODEL BLENDS AND MOS GUIDANCE WERE MAKING IT A LITTLE TOO
COOL. LIKED THE LOOK OF THE RAW 2 METER (SURFACE) TEMPERATURES
FROM OUR LOCAL WRF MODELS, SO I LEANED TOWARD THAT OUTPUT. SO
THINKING IN GENERAL LOTS OF 40S. COULD BE A FEW UPPER 30S IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM/EASTERN VERMONT IF THEY STILL HAVE A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS AFTER SUNSET TO ALLOW FOR A QUICK COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT MONDAY...THE ACTION REALLY GETS CRANKING FOR
LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROF OFF TO THE WEST WILL
DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND ULTIMATELY CUT-OFF DOWN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
SET UP SHOP JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AND AS WE KNOW, CUT-OFFS
ARE "CUT-OFF" FROM THE MAIN FLOW, SO THAT MEANS THEY DON`T MOVE
VERY QUICKLY.

12Z GUIDANCE STILL ALL SHOWING THIS SAME SCENARIO, SO CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT WE`VE GOT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET CONDITIONS.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED AND BRING IN COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE -- RESULTING IN A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY (AND BEYOND).

TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS UP. THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.
AS THE TROUGH EVOLVES INTO A CUT-OFF LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND, THINGS WILL GET MORE
INTERESTING.

EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND STRENGTHEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ULTIMATELY WE`LL BE SEEING 850MB WINDS OUT OF
THE EAST AROUND 30-40KTS AND THIS WILL BRING IN ALL THE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE, RESULTING IN A PERSISTANT RAIN, LIKELY OCCASIONAL
MODERATE TO HEAVY ON WEDNESDAY. IT`S JUST GOING TO BE DOWNRIGHT
MISERABLE (CHILLY AND WET).

TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
LOCATIONS FOR HEAVIEST AMOUNTS. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW, STILL FEEL
THE FEELINGS BY PREVIOUS FORECASTERS THAT WE SHOULD SEE AN
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
ADIRONDACKS MAKES SENSE. THERE SHOULD BE SHADOWING BY THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS TO KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST, THE VERY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL START TO TURN NORTHEAST
AND EVENTUALLY NORTH. A NORTHERLY FLOW COMING DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY IS A CONVERGENT FLOW, AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE
THE RAINFALL HERE IN THE VALLEY LATE ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN MEAN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
CHANGING MUCH FROM DAY TO NIGHT. GUIDANCE BLENDS STILL SEEM TO BE
A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT, SO TRIED MY BEST
TO MAKE THE DIURNAL DIFFERENCE SMALLER. EVEN SO, I THINK MY FINAL
NUMBERS ARE STILL A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT.
BOTTOM LINE, 40S AT NIGHT AND SOME 50S DURING THE DAY (IF WE ARE
LUCKY).

OH YEAH, FOR THE WINTER WEATHER FANS OUT THERE -- SORRY, IT`S
LOOKING JUST WET, NOT WHITE. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE UP AROUND &
OVER 6,000FT. BESIDES, EVEN IF IT DID SNOW, IT`S STILL EARLY IN
THE SEASON AND WOULD LIKELY NOT HANG AROUND THAT LONG -- SO IT
WOULD JUST BE WASTED.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO PULL
SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND MARITIMES
BY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. DEFORMATIONAL FORCING CONTINUES TO
BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FCST AREA WHERE MODERATE MID LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
UNDERCUT BY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLIES. THIS VEERING/WARM THERMAL
ADVECTIVE PROFILE OFTEN FAVORS MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER PCPN
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE I`LL MAINTAIN
HIGH POPS AND HEAVIEST QPF.

STEADIER PCPN/RAFL THEN SLOWLY TAPERS TO SCT SHOWERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS DEFORMATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT. HOWEVER...WITH
CONTINUED MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF ADDL TAIL END
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IT WON`T COMPLETELY DRY OUT UNTIL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FINALLY
MAKES SOME INROADS EASTWARD. CONTINUED PRIOR TRENDS IN REGARD TO
TEMPS BY UNDERCUTTING MOS HIGHS AND NARROWING MEAN DIURNAL RANGES
DURING THU/FRI TIME FRAME WITH THE CLOUDS/PCPN/NORTHERLY
FLOW...GENERALLY OFFERING A RATHER HIGH DEGREE OF HOMOGENEITY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION...INCLUDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VALUES FOR THE
MOST PART SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCALES
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. THEREAFTER...READINGS MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS
THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES WEAKEN AND PROGS OF AT LEAST SOME
PARTIAL SUN GRADUALLY INCREASE...ESP BY NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AIRMET ADVSYS FOR MODERATE ICING POTL FROM 080 AGL TO 180 AGL
THROUGH 03Z AREA WIDE...

THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...SLOWLY DETERIORATING CONDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLOWLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN
TO OCCUR AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS OF KMSS/KSLK THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND BEYOND...WITH SOME ON AND OFF
SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KBTV/KPBG AFTER 00Z
OR SO. MAINLY DRY AT KMPV/KRUT UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUE...AND POSSIBLY
BEYOND. CIGS A MAINLY VFR THROUGH 06Z...THOUGH SOME PATCHY MVFR AT
KSLK/KMSS IN EVENING SHOWER ACTIVITY. AFTER 06Z CONDS SLOWLY LOWER
TO MVFR AT MOST NRN NY TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY KBTV...REMAINING
VFR AT KMPV/KRUT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VRB TO LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH 00Z...TRENDING CALM TO LIGHT
EAST/NORTHEASTERLY AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KRUT WHERE LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. AT KMSS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN AFTER 09Z TO 10-15 KTS WITH ENHANCED GUSTINESS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR AS UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AFFECT THE REGION.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD AND/OR PERIODS OF
RAIN...OCCNLY HEAVY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS UPPER LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. PREVAILING
MVFR/IFR THE GENERAL RULE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDS AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN/SHOWERS LESSENS OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR STILL LIKELY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...TRENDING TO MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG






000
FXUS61 KBTV 202008
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
408 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT TO
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY LATE TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT, THE REST OF THE
WEEK WILL BE RAINY AND COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION, JUST FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT THAT STILL HAVE SOME
SUN. NOT EXPECTING THOSE CLEAR SPOTS TO LAST MUCH LONGER. RADAR
SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN UP ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER, WITH OTHER
SHOWERS FARTHER BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
LAKE ONTARIO. THESE SHOWERS ARE ALSO MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND FAR NORTHERN VERMONT DURING
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAVY RAIN, SO
QPF SHOULD BE 1/10" OR LESS.

CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH. SEEMED LIKE THE
VARIOUS MODEL BLENDS AND MOS GUIDANCE WERE MAKING IT A LITTLE TOO
COOL. LIKED THE LOOK OF THE RAW 2 METER (SURFACE) TEMPERATURES
FROM OUR LOCAL WRF MODELS, SO I LEANED TOWARD THAT OUTPUT. SO
THINKING IN GENERAL LOTS OF 40S. COULD BE A FEW UPPER 30S IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM/EASTERN VERMONT IF THEY STILL HAVE A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS AFTER SUNSET TO ALLOW FOR A QUICK COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT MONDAY...THE ACTION REALLY GETS CRANKING FOR
LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROF OFF TO THE WEST WILL
DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND ULTIMATELY CUT-OFF DOWN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
SET UP SHOP JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AND AS WE KNOW, CUT-OFFS
ARE "CUT-OFF" FROM THE MAIN FLOW, SO THAT MEANS THEY DON`T MOVE
VERY QUICKLY.

12Z GUIDANCE STILL ALL SHOWING THIS SAME SCENARIO, SO CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT WE`VE GOT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET CONDITIONS.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED AND BRING IN COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE -- RESULTING IN A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY (AND BEYOND).

TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS UP. THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.
AS THE TROUGH EVOLVES INTO A CUT-OFF LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND, THINGS WILL GET MORE
INTERESTING.

EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND STRENGTHEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ULTIMATELY WE`LL BE SEEING 850MB WINDS OUT OF
THE EAST AROUND 30-40KTS AND THIS WILL BRING IN ALL THE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE, RESULTING IN A PERSISTANT RAIN, LIKELY OCCASIONAL
MODERATE TO HEAVY ON WEDNESDAY. IT`S JUST GOING TO BE DOWNRIGHT
MISERABLE (CHILLY AND WET).

TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
LOCATIONS FOR HEAVIEST AMOUNTS. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW, STILL FEEL
THE FEELINGS BY PREVIOUS FORECASTERS THAT WE SHOULD SEE AN
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
ADIRONDACKS MAKES SENSE. THERE SHOULD BE SHADOWING BY THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS TO KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST, THE VERY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL START TO TURN NORTHEAST
AND EVENTUALLY NORTH. A NORTHERLY FLOW COMING DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY IS A CONVERGENT FLOW, AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE
THE RAINFALL HERE IN THE VALLEY LATE ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN MEAN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
CHANGING MUCH FROM DAY TO NIGHT. GUIDANCE BLENDS STILL SEEM TO BE
A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT, SO TRIED MY BEST
TO MAKE THE DIURNAL DIFFERENCE SMALLER. EVEN SO, I THINK MY FINAL
NUMBERS ARE STILL A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT.
BOTTOM LINE, 40S AT NIGHT AND SOME 50S DURING THE DAY (IF WE ARE
LUCKY).

OH YEAH, FOR THE WINTER WEATHER FANS OUT THERE -- SORRY, IT`S
LOOKING JUST WET, NOT WHITE. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE UP AROUND &
OVER 6,000FT. BESIDES, EVEN IF IT DID SNOW, IT`S STILL EARLY IN
THE SEASON AND WOULD LIKELY NOT HANG AROUND THAT LONG -- SO IT
WOULD JUST BE WASTED.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO PULL
SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND MARITIMES
BY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. DEFORMATIONAL FORCING CONTINUES TO
BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FCST AREA WHERE MODERATE MID LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
UNDERCUT BY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLIES. THIS VEERING/WARM THERMAL
ADVECTIVE PROFILE OFTEN FAVORS MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER PCPN
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE I`LL MAINTAIN
HIGH POPS AND HEAVIEST QPF.

STEADIER PCPN/RAFL THEN SLOWLY TAPERS TO SCT SHOWERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS DEFORMATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT. HOWEVER...WITH
CONTINUED MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF ADDL TAIL END
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IT WON`T COMPLETELY DRY OUT UNTIL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FINALLY
MAKES SOME INROADS EASTWARD. CONTINUED PRIOR TRENDS IN REGARD TO
TEMPS BY UNDERCUTTING MOS HIGHS AND NARROWING MEAN DIURNAL RANGES
DURING THU/FRI TIME FRAME WITH THE CLOUDS/PCPN/NORTHERLY
FLOW...GENERALLY OFFERING A RATHER HIGH DEGREE OF HOMOGENEITY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION...INCLUDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VALUES FOR THE
MOST PART SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCALES
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. THEREAFTER...READINGS MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS
THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES WEAKEN AND PROGS OF AT LEAST SOME
PARTIAL SUN GRADUALLY INCREASE...ESP BY NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AIRMET ADVSYS FOR MODERATE ICING POTL FROM 080 AGL TO 180 AGL
THROUGH 03Z AREA WIDE...

THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...SLOWLY DETERIORATING CONDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLOWLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN
TO OCCUR AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS OF KMSS/KSLK THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND BEYOND...WITH SOME ON AND OFF
SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KBTV/KPBG AFTER 00Z
OR SO. MAINLY DRY AT KMPV/KRUT UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUE...AND POSSIBLY
BEYOND. CIGS A MAINLY VFR THROUGH 06Z...THOUGH SOME PATCHY MVFR AT
KSLK/KMSS IN EVENING SHOWER ACTIVITY. AFTER 06Z CONDS SLOWLY LOWER
TO MVFR AT MOST NRN NY TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY KBTV...REMAINING
VFR AT KMPV/KRUT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VRB TO LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH 00Z...TRENDING CALM TO LIGHT
EAST/NORTHEASTERLY AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KRUT WHERE LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. AT KMSS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN AFTER 09Z TO 10-15 KTS WITH ENHANCED GUSTINESS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR AS UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AFFECT THE REGION.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD AND/OR PERIODS OF
RAIN...OCCNLY HEAVY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS UPPER LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. PREVAILING
MVFR/IFR THE GENERAL RULE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDS AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN/SHOWERS LESSENS OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR STILL LIKELY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...TRENDING TO MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG






000
FXUS61 KBTV 202008
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
408 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT TO
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY LATE TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT, THE REST OF THE
WEEK WILL BE RAINY AND COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION, JUST FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT THAT STILL HAVE SOME
SUN. NOT EXPECTING THOSE CLEAR SPOTS TO LAST MUCH LONGER. RADAR
SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN UP ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER, WITH OTHER
SHOWERS FARTHER BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
LAKE ONTARIO. THESE SHOWERS ARE ALSO MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND FAR NORTHERN VERMONT DURING
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAVY RAIN, SO
QPF SHOULD BE 1/10" OR LESS.

CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH. SEEMED LIKE THE
VARIOUS MODEL BLENDS AND MOS GUIDANCE WERE MAKING IT A LITTLE TOO
COOL. LIKED THE LOOK OF THE RAW 2 METER (SURFACE) TEMPERATURES
FROM OUR LOCAL WRF MODELS, SO I LEANED TOWARD THAT OUTPUT. SO
THINKING IN GENERAL LOTS OF 40S. COULD BE A FEW UPPER 30S IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM/EASTERN VERMONT IF THEY STILL HAVE A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS AFTER SUNSET TO ALLOW FOR A QUICK COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT MONDAY...THE ACTION REALLY GETS CRANKING FOR
LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROF OFF TO THE WEST WILL
DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND ULTIMATELY CUT-OFF DOWN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
SET UP SHOP JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AND AS WE KNOW, CUT-OFFS
ARE "CUT-OFF" FROM THE MAIN FLOW, SO THAT MEANS THEY DON`T MOVE
VERY QUICKLY.

12Z GUIDANCE STILL ALL SHOWING THIS SAME SCENARIO, SO CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT WE`VE GOT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET CONDITIONS.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED AND BRING IN COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE -- RESULTING IN A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY (AND BEYOND).

TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS UP. THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.
AS THE TROUGH EVOLVES INTO A CUT-OFF LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND, THINGS WILL GET MORE
INTERESTING.

EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND STRENGTHEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ULTIMATELY WE`LL BE SEEING 850MB WINDS OUT OF
THE EAST AROUND 30-40KTS AND THIS WILL BRING IN ALL THE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE, RESULTING IN A PERSISTANT RAIN, LIKELY OCCASIONAL
MODERATE TO HEAVY ON WEDNESDAY. IT`S JUST GOING TO BE DOWNRIGHT
MISERABLE (CHILLY AND WET).

TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
LOCATIONS FOR HEAVIEST AMOUNTS. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW, STILL FEEL
THE FEELINGS BY PREVIOUS FORECASTERS THAT WE SHOULD SEE AN
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
ADIRONDACKS MAKES SENSE. THERE SHOULD BE SHADOWING BY THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS TO KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST, THE VERY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL START TO TURN NORTHEAST
AND EVENTUALLY NORTH. A NORTHERLY FLOW COMING DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY IS A CONVERGENT FLOW, AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE
THE RAINFALL HERE IN THE VALLEY LATE ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN MEAN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
CHANGING MUCH FROM DAY TO NIGHT. GUIDANCE BLENDS STILL SEEM TO BE
A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT, SO TRIED MY BEST
TO MAKE THE DIURNAL DIFFERENCE SMALLER. EVEN SO, I THINK MY FINAL
NUMBERS ARE STILL A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT.
BOTTOM LINE, 40S AT NIGHT AND SOME 50S DURING THE DAY (IF WE ARE
LUCKY).

OH YEAH, FOR THE WINTER WEATHER FANS OUT THERE -- SORRY, IT`S
LOOKING JUST WET, NOT WHITE. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE UP AROUND &
OVER 6,000FT. BESIDES, EVEN IF IT DID SNOW, IT`S STILL EARLY IN
THE SEASON AND WOULD LIKELY NOT HANG AROUND THAT LONG -- SO IT
WOULD JUST BE WASTED.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO PULL
SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND MARITIMES
BY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. DEFORMATIONAL FORCING CONTINUES TO
BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FCST AREA WHERE MODERATE MID LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
UNDERCUT BY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLIES. THIS VEERING/WARM THERMAL
ADVECTIVE PROFILE OFTEN FAVORS MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER PCPN
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE I`LL MAINTAIN
HIGH POPS AND HEAVIEST QPF.

STEADIER PCPN/RAFL THEN SLOWLY TAPERS TO SCT SHOWERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS DEFORMATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT. HOWEVER...WITH
CONTINUED MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF ADDL TAIL END
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IT WON`T COMPLETELY DRY OUT UNTIL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FINALLY
MAKES SOME INROADS EASTWARD. CONTINUED PRIOR TRENDS IN REGARD TO
TEMPS BY UNDERCUTTING MOS HIGHS AND NARROWING MEAN DIURNAL RANGES
DURING THU/FRI TIME FRAME WITH THE CLOUDS/PCPN/NORTHERLY
FLOW...GENERALLY OFFERING A RATHER HIGH DEGREE OF HOMOGENEITY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION...INCLUDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VALUES FOR THE
MOST PART SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCALES
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. THEREAFTER...READINGS MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS
THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES WEAKEN AND PROGS OF AT LEAST SOME
PARTIAL SUN GRADUALLY INCREASE...ESP BY NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AIRMET ADVSYS FOR MODERATE ICING POTL FROM 080 AGL TO 180 AGL
THROUGH 03Z AREA WIDE...

THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...SLOWLY DETERIORATING CONDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLOWLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN
TO OCCUR AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS OF KMSS/KSLK THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND BEYOND...WITH SOME ON AND OFF
SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KBTV/KPBG AFTER 00Z
OR SO. MAINLY DRY AT KMPV/KRUT UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUE...AND POSSIBLY
BEYOND. CIGS A MAINLY VFR THROUGH 06Z...THOUGH SOME PATCHY MVFR AT
KSLK/KMSS IN EVENING SHOWER ACTIVITY. AFTER 06Z CONDS SLOWLY LOWER
TO MVFR AT MOST NRN NY TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY KBTV...REMAINING
VFR AT KMPV/KRUT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VRB TO LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH 00Z...TRENDING CALM TO LIGHT
EAST/NORTHEASTERLY AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KRUT WHERE LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. AT KMSS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN AFTER 09Z TO 10-15 KTS WITH ENHANCED GUSTINESS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR AS UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AFFECT THE REGION.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD AND/OR PERIODS OF
RAIN...OCCNLY HEAVY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS UPPER LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. PREVAILING
MVFR/IFR THE GENERAL RULE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDS AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN/SHOWERS LESSENS OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR STILL LIKELY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...TRENDING TO MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG






000
FXUS61 KBTV 202008
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
408 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT TO
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY LATE TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT, THE REST OF THE
WEEK WILL BE RAINY AND COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION, JUST FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT THAT STILL HAVE SOME
SUN. NOT EXPECTING THOSE CLEAR SPOTS TO LAST MUCH LONGER. RADAR
SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN UP ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER, WITH OTHER
SHOWERS FARTHER BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
LAKE ONTARIO. THESE SHOWERS ARE ALSO MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND FAR NORTHERN VERMONT DURING
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAVY RAIN, SO
QPF SHOULD BE 1/10" OR LESS.

CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH. SEEMED LIKE THE
VARIOUS MODEL BLENDS AND MOS GUIDANCE WERE MAKING IT A LITTLE TOO
COOL. LIKED THE LOOK OF THE RAW 2 METER (SURFACE) TEMPERATURES
FROM OUR LOCAL WRF MODELS, SO I LEANED TOWARD THAT OUTPUT. SO
THINKING IN GENERAL LOTS OF 40S. COULD BE A FEW UPPER 30S IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM/EASTERN VERMONT IF THEY STILL HAVE A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS AFTER SUNSET TO ALLOW FOR A QUICK COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT MONDAY...THE ACTION REALLY GETS CRANKING FOR
LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROF OFF TO THE WEST WILL
DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND ULTIMATELY CUT-OFF DOWN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
SET UP SHOP JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AND AS WE KNOW, CUT-OFFS
ARE "CUT-OFF" FROM THE MAIN FLOW, SO THAT MEANS THEY DON`T MOVE
VERY QUICKLY.

12Z GUIDANCE STILL ALL SHOWING THIS SAME SCENARIO, SO CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT WE`VE GOT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET CONDITIONS.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED AND BRING IN COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE -- RESULTING IN A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY (AND BEYOND).

TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS UP. THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.
AS THE TROUGH EVOLVES INTO A CUT-OFF LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND, THINGS WILL GET MORE
INTERESTING.

EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND STRENGTHEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ULTIMATELY WE`LL BE SEEING 850MB WINDS OUT OF
THE EAST AROUND 30-40KTS AND THIS WILL BRING IN ALL THE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE, RESULTING IN A PERSISTANT RAIN, LIKELY OCCASIONAL
MODERATE TO HEAVY ON WEDNESDAY. IT`S JUST GOING TO BE DOWNRIGHT
MISERABLE (CHILLY AND WET).

TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
LOCATIONS FOR HEAVIEST AMOUNTS. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW, STILL FEEL
THE FEELINGS BY PREVIOUS FORECASTERS THAT WE SHOULD SEE AN
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
ADIRONDACKS MAKES SENSE. THERE SHOULD BE SHADOWING BY THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS TO KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST, THE VERY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL START TO TURN NORTHEAST
AND EVENTUALLY NORTH. A NORTHERLY FLOW COMING DOWN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY IS A CONVERGENT FLOW, AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE
THE RAINFALL HERE IN THE VALLEY LATE ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN MEAN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
CHANGING MUCH FROM DAY TO NIGHT. GUIDANCE BLENDS STILL SEEM TO BE
A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT, SO TRIED MY BEST
TO MAKE THE DIURNAL DIFFERENCE SMALLER. EVEN SO, I THINK MY FINAL
NUMBERS ARE STILL A LITTLE WARM DURING THE DAY AND COOL AT NIGHT.
BOTTOM LINE, 40S AT NIGHT AND SOME 50S DURING THE DAY (IF WE ARE
LUCKY).

OH YEAH, FOR THE WINTER WEATHER FANS OUT THERE -- SORRY, IT`S
LOOKING JUST WET, NOT WHITE. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE UP AROUND &
OVER 6,000FT. BESIDES, EVEN IF IT DID SNOW, IT`S STILL EARLY IN
THE SEASON AND WOULD LIKELY NOT HANG AROUND THAT LONG -- SO IT
WOULD JUST BE WASTED.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO PULL
SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND MARITIMES
BY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. DEFORMATIONAL FORCING CONTINUES TO
BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FCST AREA WHERE MODERATE MID LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
UNDERCUT BY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLIES. THIS VEERING/WARM THERMAL
ADVECTIVE PROFILE OFTEN FAVORS MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER PCPN
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE I`LL MAINTAIN
HIGH POPS AND HEAVIEST QPF.

STEADIER PCPN/RAFL THEN SLOWLY TAPERS TO SCT SHOWERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS DEFORMATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT. HOWEVER...WITH
CONTINUED MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF ADDL TAIL END
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IT WON`T COMPLETELY DRY OUT UNTIL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FINALLY
MAKES SOME INROADS EASTWARD. CONTINUED PRIOR TRENDS IN REGARD TO
TEMPS BY UNDERCUTTING MOS HIGHS AND NARROWING MEAN DIURNAL RANGES
DURING THU/FRI TIME FRAME WITH THE CLOUDS/PCPN/NORTHERLY
FLOW...GENERALLY OFFERING A RATHER HIGH DEGREE OF HOMOGENEITY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION...INCLUDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VALUES FOR THE
MOST PART SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCALES
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. THEREAFTER...READINGS MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS
THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES WEAKEN AND PROGS OF AT LEAST SOME
PARTIAL SUN GRADUALLY INCREASE...ESP BY NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AIRMET ADVSYS FOR MODERATE ICING POTL FROM 080 AGL TO 180 AGL
THROUGH 03Z AREA WIDE...

THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...SLOWLY DETERIORATING CONDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLOWLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN
TO OCCUR AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS OF KMSS/KSLK THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND BEYOND...WITH SOME ON AND OFF
SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KBTV/KPBG AFTER 00Z
OR SO. MAINLY DRY AT KMPV/KRUT UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUE...AND POSSIBLY
BEYOND. CIGS A MAINLY VFR THROUGH 06Z...THOUGH SOME PATCHY MVFR AT
KSLK/KMSS IN EVENING SHOWER ACTIVITY. AFTER 06Z CONDS SLOWLY LOWER
TO MVFR AT MOST NRN NY TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY KBTV...REMAINING
VFR AT KMPV/KRUT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VRB TO LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH 00Z...TRENDING CALM TO LIGHT
EAST/NORTHEASTERLY AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KRUT WHERE LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. AT KMSS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN AFTER 09Z TO 10-15 KTS WITH ENHANCED GUSTINESS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR AS UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AFFECT THE REGION.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD AND/OR PERIODS OF
RAIN...OCCNLY HEAVY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS UPPER LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. PREVAILING
MVFR/IFR THE GENERAL RULE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDS AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN/SHOWERS LESSENS OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR STILL LIKELY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...TRENDING TO MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG






000
FXUS61 KALY 202002
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
402 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 4 PM EDT...MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL BREAKS CONTINUE AT TIMES ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THERE HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL RADAR RETURNS ON
RADAR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT MOST OF THIS IS EVAPORATING
BEFORE REACHING THE SFC...OR VIRGA. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
FEW SPRINKLES COULD REACH THE GROUND ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE
BERKSHIRES...AND THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MAY LIMIT MUCH RAINFALL FROM
OCCURRING OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE MID LEVELS WILL HAVE MOISTENED UP A BIT...AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT. SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES
MAY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT A BIT FARTHER S AND E...ESP TOWARD
DAYBREAK...WHEN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. WILL GENERALLY KEEP
POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST TOWARD DAYBREAK...EXCEPT
FOR SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND
WARM ADVECTION. HAVE TRENDED MOST AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET
MOS...WITH GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S EXPECTED...WARMEST WITHIN
THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION...WHERE A LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHOULD PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL FORM A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. FOR OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE PRESENT...ESP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE QUITE LIMITED DURING THIS TIME. SO...IT APPEARS
THAT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WOULD BE THE BEST WAY TO
DESCRIBE RAINFALL CHANCES DURING TUESDAY...WITH SOME AREAS
POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING SOME LONGER STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER IN BETWEEN.
IN FACT...ACROSS SOME SOUTHERN AREAS...A FEW BREAKS OF SUN COULD
EVEN OCCUR AT TIMES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY THE
SE CATSKILLS...WHERE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE
INDICATED...AND RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PERSISTENT. FOR TUE
NT...AGAIN...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT
GREAT...WITH THE MAIN FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINING ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND COAST. WILL KEEP
CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS...BUT AGAIN...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT
BE RAINING ALL THE TIME AND IN ALL AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...ASSUMING
SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS...AND LIMITED PRECIP OCCUR...HAVE
SIDED A BIT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS FOR TUE MAXES...WITH
GENERALLY 55-60 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR TUE NT...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BACK
INTO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING PRESSURES TO OUR SOUTH...TEMPS
SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED-THU...MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY JET WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIME...BEFORE SLOWLY PIVOTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WED NT-THU. THE
NOSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET SEEMS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR WED AFTN...BEFORE PIVOTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND LATE WED NT AND THU. LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW LEVEL JET...ALONG WITH STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
295-300 K SURFACES...WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
SHOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT FOR A TIME WED NT-
THU. ALSO...A SECONDARY MAX IN PRECIP IS LIKELY ACROSS UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES MAY OCCUR IN THESE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS...WITH
GENERALLY 0.50-1 INCH IN THE VALLEYS. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT STRONG NE DOWNSLOPING WINDS COULD CREATE MORE DRAMATIC RAIN
SHADOWING IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SOME
AREAS COULD BE AT OR EVEN BELOW THE LOWER END OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED VALLEY RANGES. SO...BANDS OF RAIN ROTATING WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL BECOME MORE
PROMINENT FOR WED-THU...WITH A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN
POSSIBLE...ESP WED NT AND THU AM...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BRIEFLY
ORIENTS ITSELF TOWARD EASTERN NYS/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT WILL BE
QUITE RAW DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH BRISK N/NE WINDS. IN
FACT...SOME GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH COULD OCCUR AT TIMES ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NT. MAX TEMPS ON WED SHOULD ONLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH EVEN COOLER MAXES COULD OCCUR IF STEADIER
RAIN DEVELOPS. THU MAXES SHOULD ONLY REACH 45-50 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS FOR WED
NT/THU AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THINGS START OFF WET BUT QUICKLY TURN DRY AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF
CAPE COD HEADS UP THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...DRAWING WET
WEATHER TO A CLOSE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND PROVIDING FOR A PLEASANT LATE
OCTOBER WEEKEND.  A FEW WESTERN ADIRONDACK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RAPIDLY
MOVING...THOUGH VERY DRY...COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  BY EARLY MONDAY...THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE MADE IT ALL THE WAY TO SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL BE
HARDLY NOTICEABLE DOWN THERE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN MOSTLY THE 45 TO 60 DEGREE
RANGE...BUT WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES MILDER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
EXTENDED.  OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL LOCATIONS...BUT WILL FALL INTO
THE 40S EVERYWHERE.  NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD IN
ALBANY ARE IN THE THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
ENDING 18Z TUESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALREADY SPREADING
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. CEILING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT
REMAIN IN VFR RANGE AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z...SO WILL MENTION VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME SHOWERS AFFECTING
ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z-18Z BUT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO
BE TOO LIMITED TO INDICATE A TEMPO OR EVEN A PROB30...BUT LATER
TAF ISSUANCES WILL BETTER RESOLVE HOW MUCH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
THERE WILL BE TUESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-8 KTS THIS AFTERNOON..THEN
DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM TONIGHT...THEN VARIABLE AT 5KT OR LESS
TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 202002
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
402 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 4 PM EDT...MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL BREAKS CONTINUE AT TIMES ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THERE HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL RADAR RETURNS ON
RADAR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT MOST OF THIS IS EVAPORATING
BEFORE REACHING THE SFC...OR VIRGA. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
FEW SPRINKLES COULD REACH THE GROUND ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE
BERKSHIRES...AND THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MAY LIMIT MUCH RAINFALL FROM
OCCURRING OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE MID LEVELS WILL HAVE MOISTENED UP A BIT...AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT. SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES
MAY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT A BIT FARTHER S AND E...ESP TOWARD
DAYBREAK...WHEN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. WILL GENERALLY KEEP
POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST TOWARD DAYBREAK...EXCEPT
FOR SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND
WARM ADVECTION. HAVE TRENDED MOST AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET
MOS...WITH GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S EXPECTED...WARMEST WITHIN
THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION...WHERE A LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHOULD PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL FORM A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. FOR OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE PRESENT...ESP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE QUITE LIMITED DURING THIS TIME. SO...IT APPEARS
THAT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WOULD BE THE BEST WAY TO
DESCRIBE RAINFALL CHANCES DURING TUESDAY...WITH SOME AREAS
POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING SOME LONGER STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER IN BETWEEN.
IN FACT...ACROSS SOME SOUTHERN AREAS...A FEW BREAKS OF SUN COULD
EVEN OCCUR AT TIMES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY THE
SE CATSKILLS...WHERE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE
INDICATED...AND RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PERSISTENT. FOR TUE
NT...AGAIN...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT
GREAT...WITH THE MAIN FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINING ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND COAST. WILL KEEP
CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS...BUT AGAIN...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT
BE RAINING ALL THE TIME AND IN ALL AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...ASSUMING
SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS...AND LIMITED PRECIP OCCUR...HAVE
SIDED A BIT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS FOR TUE MAXES...WITH
GENERALLY 55-60 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR TUE NT...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BACK
INTO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING PRESSURES TO OUR SOUTH...TEMPS
SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED-THU...MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY JET WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIME...BEFORE SLOWLY PIVOTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WED NT-THU. THE
NOSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET SEEMS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR WED AFTN...BEFORE PIVOTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND LATE WED NT AND THU. LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW LEVEL JET...ALONG WITH STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
295-300 K SURFACES...WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
SHOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT FOR A TIME WED NT-
THU. ALSO...A SECONDARY MAX IN PRECIP IS LIKELY ACROSS UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES MAY OCCUR IN THESE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS...WITH
GENERALLY 0.50-1 INCH IN THE VALLEYS. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT STRONG NE DOWNSLOPING WINDS COULD CREATE MORE DRAMATIC RAIN
SHADOWING IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SOME
AREAS COULD BE AT OR EVEN BELOW THE LOWER END OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED VALLEY RANGES. SO...BANDS OF RAIN ROTATING WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL BECOME MORE
PROMINENT FOR WED-THU...WITH A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN
POSSIBLE...ESP WED NT AND THU AM...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BRIEFLY
ORIENTS ITSELF TOWARD EASTERN NYS/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT WILL BE
QUITE RAW DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH BRISK N/NE WINDS. IN
FACT...SOME GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH COULD OCCUR AT TIMES ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NT. MAX TEMPS ON WED SHOULD ONLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH EVEN COOLER MAXES COULD OCCUR IF STEADIER
RAIN DEVELOPS. THU MAXES SHOULD ONLY REACH 45-50 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS FOR WED
NT/THU AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THINGS START OFF WET BUT QUICKLY TURN DRY AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF
CAPE COD HEADS UP THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...DRAWING WET
WEATHER TO A CLOSE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND PROVIDING FOR A PLEASANT LATE
OCTOBER WEEKEND.  A FEW WESTERN ADIRONDACK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RAPIDLY
MOVING...THOUGH VERY DRY...COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  BY EARLY MONDAY...THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE MADE IT ALL THE WAY TO SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL BE
HARDLY NOTICEABLE DOWN THERE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN MOSTLY THE 45 TO 60 DEGREE
RANGE...BUT WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES MILDER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
EXTENDED.  OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL LOCATIONS...BUT WILL FALL INTO
THE 40S EVERYWHERE.  NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD IN
ALBANY ARE IN THE THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
ENDING 18Z TUESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALREADY SPREADING
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. CEILING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT
REMAIN IN VFR RANGE AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z...SO WILL MENTION VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME SHOWERS AFFECTING
ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z-18Z BUT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO
BE TOO LIMITED TO INDICATE A TEMPO OR EVEN A PROB30...BUT LATER
TAF ISSUANCES WILL BETTER RESOLVE HOW MUCH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
THERE WILL BE TUESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-8 KTS THIS AFTERNOON..THEN
DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM TONIGHT...THEN VARIABLE AT 5KT OR LESS
TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM








000
FXUS61 KBTV 201908
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
308 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING ABOUT THE ONLY
DRY DAY OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE
TODAY AS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TOWARD LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER LONG ISLAND DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AND SET THE STAGE FOR MORE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT MONDAY...ONCE AGAIN, FORECAST FOR THE DAY IS
PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. LIGHT RAIN HAS JUST REACHED THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND RADAR SHOWS ECHOS STREAMING EASTWARD. THINK THAT MUCH
OF THIS WILL DRY UP AS IT DOES MOVE EAST AS THE LOW LEVEL AS
FAIRLY DRY. STILL A FEW SPRINKLES/BRIEF LIGHT RAIN IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS CLOSE TO THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HAVE THUS MODIFIED THE POP FIELD TO REFLECT
THIS MORE EAST/NORTHEAST MOVEMENT.

HAVE MADE ADJUSTEMENTS TO THE POP FIELD EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT BASED
UPON THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE, WITH A LITTLE MORE WEIGHT TOWARD THE
SREF OUTPUT.

BASICALLY WITH THE UPPER TROF BEGINNING TO DEEPEN, THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE (AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION) WON`T BE MAKING AS MUCH
OF A PROGRESSION TO THE EAST, BUT RATHER MORE TO THE SOUTH. THUS
HAVE KEPT HIGHEST POPS OUT ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK, TRENDING LOWER THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ONE GOES. SO HAVE
A 60-80% OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DOWN TO 15-25% IN THE LOWER
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE WARMING FAIRLY
QUICKLY (WHITEFACE MOUNTAIN SUMMIT HAS JUST REACHED 32F), SO NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN.

STILL NEED TO EVALUATE OVERNIGHT LOWS, BUT THINKING WITH THE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION, IT WON`T DROP ALL THAT MUCH FROM
WHATEVER WE REACH FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER TROF OFF TO THE WEST WILL
DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND ULTIMATELY CUT-OFF DOWN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
SET UP SHOP JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AND AS WE KNOW, CUT-OFFS
ARE "CUT-OFF" FROM THE MAIN FLOW, SO THAT MEANS THEY DON`T MOVE
VERY QUICKLY.

12Z GUIDANCE STILL ALL SHOWING THIS SAME SCENARIO, SO CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT WE`VE GOT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET CONDITIONS.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED AND BRING IN COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE -- RESULTING IN A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY (AND BEYOND).

NEED TO LOOK MORE AT THE 12Z GUIDANCE FOR QPF AMOUNTS, THOUGH
FIRST SKIM THROUGH SEEMS TO INDICATE WHAT WE CURRENTLY HAVE SEEMS
TO BE IN THE BALLPARK -- WHICH IS A WIDESPREAD 1"+ BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH EVEN MORE FALLING THURSDAY.

I`LL BE BACK IN A BIT WITH MORE DETAILS ON TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO PULL
SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND MARITIMES
BY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. DEFORMATIONAL FORCING CONTINUES TO
BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FCST AREA WHERE MODERATE MID LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
UNDERCUT BY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLIES. THIS VEERING/WARM THERMAL
ADVECTIVE PROFILE OFTEN FAVORS MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER PCPN
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE I`LL MAINTAIN
HIGH POPS AND HEAVIEST QPF.

STEADIER PCPN/RAFL THEN SLOWLY TAPERS TO SCT SHOWERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS DEFORMATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT. HOWEVER...WITH
CONTINUED MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF ADDL TAIL END
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IT WON`T COMPLETELY DRY OUT UNTIL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FINALLY
MAKES SOME INROADS EASTWARD. CONTINUED PRIOR TRENDS IN REGARD TO
TEMPS BY UNDERCUTTING MOS HIGHS AND NARROWING MEAN DIURNAL RANGES
DURING THU/FRI TIME FRAME WITH THE CLOUDS/PCPN/NORTHERLY
FLOW...GENERALLY OFFERING A RATHER HIGH DEGREE OF HOMOGENEITY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION...INCLUDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VALUES FOR THE
MOST PART SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCALES
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. THEREAFTER...READINGS MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS
THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES WEAKEN AND PROGS OF AT LEAST SOME
PARTIAL SUN GRADUALLY INCREASE...ESP BY NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AIRMET ADVSYS FOR MODERATE ICING POTL FROM 080 AGL TO 180 AGL
THROUGH 03Z AREA WIDE...

THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...SLOWLY DETERIORATING CONDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLOWLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN
TO OCCUR AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS OF KMSS/KSLK THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND BEYOND...WITH SOME ON AND OFF
SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KBTV/KPBG AFTER 00Z
OR SO. MAINLY DRY AT KMPV/KRUT UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUE...AND POSSIBLY
BEYOND. CIGS A MAINLY VFR THROUGH 06Z...THOUGH SOME PATCHY MVFR AT
KSLK/KMSS IN EVENING SHOWER ACTIVITY. AFTER 06Z CONDS SLOWLY LOWER
TO MVFR AT MOST NRN NY TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY KBTV...REMAINING
VFR AT KMPV/KRUT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VRB TO LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH 00Z...TRENDING CALM TO LIGHT
EAST/NORTHEASTERLY AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KRUT WHERE LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. AT KMSS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN AFTER 09Z TO 10-15 KTS WITH ENHANCED GUSTINESS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR AS UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AFFECT THE REGION.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD AND/OR PERIODS OF
RAIN...OCCNLY HEAVY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS UPPER LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. PREVAILING
MVFR/IFR THE GENERAL RULE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDS AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN/SHOWERS LESSENS OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR STILL LIKELY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...TRENDING TO MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG







000
FXUS61 KBTV 201908
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
308 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING ABOUT THE ONLY
DRY DAY OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE
TODAY AS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TOWARD LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER LONG ISLAND DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AND SET THE STAGE FOR MORE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT MONDAY...ONCE AGAIN, FORECAST FOR THE DAY IS
PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. LIGHT RAIN HAS JUST REACHED THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND RADAR SHOWS ECHOS STREAMING EASTWARD. THINK THAT MUCH
OF THIS WILL DRY UP AS IT DOES MOVE EAST AS THE LOW LEVEL AS
FAIRLY DRY. STILL A FEW SPRINKLES/BRIEF LIGHT RAIN IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS CLOSE TO THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HAVE THUS MODIFIED THE POP FIELD TO REFLECT
THIS MORE EAST/NORTHEAST MOVEMENT.

HAVE MADE ADJUSTEMENTS TO THE POP FIELD EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT BASED
UPON THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE, WITH A LITTLE MORE WEIGHT TOWARD THE
SREF OUTPUT.

BASICALLY WITH THE UPPER TROF BEGINNING TO DEEPEN, THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE (AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION) WON`T BE MAKING AS MUCH
OF A PROGRESSION TO THE EAST, BUT RATHER MORE TO THE SOUTH. THUS
HAVE KEPT HIGHEST POPS OUT ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK, TRENDING LOWER THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ONE GOES. SO HAVE
A 60-80% OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DOWN TO 15-25% IN THE LOWER
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE WARMING FAIRLY
QUICKLY (WHITEFACE MOUNTAIN SUMMIT HAS JUST REACHED 32F), SO NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN.

STILL NEED TO EVALUATE OVERNIGHT LOWS, BUT THINKING WITH THE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION, IT WON`T DROP ALL THAT MUCH FROM
WHATEVER WE REACH FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER TROF OFF TO THE WEST WILL
DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND ULTIMATELY CUT-OFF DOWN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
SET UP SHOP JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AND AS WE KNOW, CUT-OFFS
ARE "CUT-OFF" FROM THE MAIN FLOW, SO THAT MEANS THEY DON`T MOVE
VERY QUICKLY.

12Z GUIDANCE STILL ALL SHOWING THIS SAME SCENARIO, SO CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT WE`VE GOT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET CONDITIONS.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED AND BRING IN COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE -- RESULTING IN A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY (AND BEYOND).

NEED TO LOOK MORE AT THE 12Z GUIDANCE FOR QPF AMOUNTS, THOUGH
FIRST SKIM THROUGH SEEMS TO INDICATE WHAT WE CURRENTLY HAVE SEEMS
TO BE IN THE BALLPARK -- WHICH IS A WIDESPREAD 1"+ BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH EVEN MORE FALLING THURSDAY.

I`LL BE BACK IN A BIT WITH MORE DETAILS ON TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO PULL
SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND MARITIMES
BY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. DEFORMATIONAL FORCING CONTINUES TO
BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FCST AREA WHERE MODERATE MID LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
UNDERCUT BY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLIES. THIS VEERING/WARM THERMAL
ADVECTIVE PROFILE OFTEN FAVORS MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER PCPN
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE I`LL MAINTAIN
HIGH POPS AND HEAVIEST QPF.

STEADIER PCPN/RAFL THEN SLOWLY TAPERS TO SCT SHOWERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS DEFORMATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT. HOWEVER...WITH
CONTINUED MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF ADDL TAIL END
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IT WON`T COMPLETELY DRY OUT UNTIL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FINALLY
MAKES SOME INROADS EASTWARD. CONTINUED PRIOR TRENDS IN REGARD TO
TEMPS BY UNDERCUTTING MOS HIGHS AND NARROWING MEAN DIURNAL RANGES
DURING THU/FRI TIME FRAME WITH THE CLOUDS/PCPN/NORTHERLY
FLOW...GENERALLY OFFERING A RATHER HIGH DEGREE OF HOMOGENEITY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION...INCLUDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VALUES FOR THE
MOST PART SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCALES
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. THEREAFTER...READINGS MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS
THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES WEAKEN AND PROGS OF AT LEAST SOME
PARTIAL SUN GRADUALLY INCREASE...ESP BY NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AIRMET ADVSYS FOR MODERATE ICING POTL FROM 080 AGL TO 180 AGL
THROUGH 03Z AREA WIDE...

THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...SLOWLY DETERIORATING CONDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLOWLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN
TO OCCUR AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS OF KMSS/KSLK THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND BEYOND...WITH SOME ON AND OFF
SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KBTV/KPBG AFTER 00Z
OR SO. MAINLY DRY AT KMPV/KRUT UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUE...AND POSSIBLY
BEYOND. CIGS A MAINLY VFR THROUGH 06Z...THOUGH SOME PATCHY MVFR AT
KSLK/KMSS IN EVENING SHOWER ACTIVITY. AFTER 06Z CONDS SLOWLY LOWER
TO MVFR AT MOST NRN NY TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY KBTV...REMAINING
VFR AT KMPV/KRUT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VRB TO LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH 00Z...TRENDING CALM TO LIGHT
EAST/NORTHEASTERLY AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KRUT WHERE LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. AT KMSS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN AFTER 09Z TO 10-15 KTS WITH ENHANCED GUSTINESS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR AS UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AFFECT THE REGION.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD AND/OR PERIODS OF
RAIN...OCCNLY HEAVY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS UPPER LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. PREVAILING
MVFR/IFR THE GENERAL RULE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDS AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN/SHOWERS LESSENS OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR STILL LIKELY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...TRENDING TO MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG







000
FXUS61 KBTV 201908
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
308 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING ABOUT THE ONLY
DRY DAY OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE
TODAY AS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TOWARD LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER LONG ISLAND DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AND SET THE STAGE FOR MORE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT MONDAY...ONCE AGAIN, FORECAST FOR THE DAY IS
PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. LIGHT RAIN HAS JUST REACHED THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND RADAR SHOWS ECHOS STREAMING EASTWARD. THINK THAT MUCH
OF THIS WILL DRY UP AS IT DOES MOVE EAST AS THE LOW LEVEL AS
FAIRLY DRY. STILL A FEW SPRINKLES/BRIEF LIGHT RAIN IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS CLOSE TO THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HAVE THUS MODIFIED THE POP FIELD TO REFLECT
THIS MORE EAST/NORTHEAST MOVEMENT.

HAVE MADE ADJUSTEMENTS TO THE POP FIELD EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT BASED
UPON THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE, WITH A LITTLE MORE WEIGHT TOWARD THE
SREF OUTPUT.

BASICALLY WITH THE UPPER TROF BEGINNING TO DEEPEN, THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE (AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION) WON`T BE MAKING AS MUCH
OF A PROGRESSION TO THE EAST, BUT RATHER MORE TO THE SOUTH. THUS
HAVE KEPT HIGHEST POPS OUT ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK, TRENDING LOWER THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ONE GOES. SO HAVE
A 60-80% OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DOWN TO 15-25% IN THE LOWER
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE WARMING FAIRLY
QUICKLY (WHITEFACE MOUNTAIN SUMMIT HAS JUST REACHED 32F), SO NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN.

STILL NEED TO EVALUATE OVERNIGHT LOWS, BUT THINKING WITH THE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION, IT WON`T DROP ALL THAT MUCH FROM
WHATEVER WE REACH FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER TROF OFF TO THE WEST WILL
DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND ULTIMATELY CUT-OFF DOWN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
SET UP SHOP JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AND AS WE KNOW, CUT-OFFS
ARE "CUT-OFF" FROM THE MAIN FLOW, SO THAT MEANS THEY DON`T MOVE
VERY QUICKLY.

12Z GUIDANCE STILL ALL SHOWING THIS SAME SCENARIO, SO CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT WE`VE GOT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET CONDITIONS.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED AND BRING IN COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE -- RESULTING IN A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY (AND BEYOND).

NEED TO LOOK MORE AT THE 12Z GUIDANCE FOR QPF AMOUNTS, THOUGH
FIRST SKIM THROUGH SEEMS TO INDICATE WHAT WE CURRENTLY HAVE SEEMS
TO BE IN THE BALLPARK -- WHICH IS A WIDESPREAD 1"+ BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH EVEN MORE FALLING THURSDAY.

I`LL BE BACK IN A BIT WITH MORE DETAILS ON TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO PULL
SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND MARITIMES
BY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. DEFORMATIONAL FORCING CONTINUES TO
BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FCST AREA WHERE MODERATE MID LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
UNDERCUT BY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLIES. THIS VEERING/WARM THERMAL
ADVECTIVE PROFILE OFTEN FAVORS MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER PCPN
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE I`LL MAINTAIN
HIGH POPS AND HEAVIEST QPF.

STEADIER PCPN/RAFL THEN SLOWLY TAPERS TO SCT SHOWERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS DEFORMATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT. HOWEVER...WITH
CONTINUED MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF ADDL TAIL END
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IT WON`T COMPLETELY DRY OUT UNTIL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FINALLY
MAKES SOME INROADS EASTWARD. CONTINUED PRIOR TRENDS IN REGARD TO
TEMPS BY UNDERCUTTING MOS HIGHS AND NARROWING MEAN DIURNAL RANGES
DURING THU/FRI TIME FRAME WITH THE CLOUDS/PCPN/NORTHERLY
FLOW...GENERALLY OFFERING A RATHER HIGH DEGREE OF HOMOGENEITY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION...INCLUDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VALUES FOR THE
MOST PART SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCALES
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. THEREAFTER...READINGS MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS
THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES WEAKEN AND PROGS OF AT LEAST SOME
PARTIAL SUN GRADUALLY INCREASE...ESP BY NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AIRMET ADVSYS FOR MODERATE ICING POTL FROM 080 AGL TO 180 AGL
THROUGH 03Z AREA WIDE...

THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...SLOWLY DETERIORATING CONDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLOWLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN
TO OCCUR AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS OF KMSS/KSLK THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND BEYOND...WITH SOME ON AND OFF
SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KBTV/KPBG AFTER 00Z
OR SO. MAINLY DRY AT KMPV/KRUT UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUE...AND POSSIBLY
BEYOND. CIGS A MAINLY VFR THROUGH 06Z...THOUGH SOME PATCHY MVFR AT
KSLK/KMSS IN EVENING SHOWER ACTIVITY. AFTER 06Z CONDS SLOWLY LOWER
TO MVFR AT MOST NRN NY TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY KBTV...REMAINING
VFR AT KMPV/KRUT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VRB TO LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH 00Z...TRENDING CALM TO LIGHT
EAST/NORTHEASTERLY AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KRUT WHERE LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. AT KMSS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN AFTER 09Z TO 10-15 KTS WITH ENHANCED GUSTINESS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR AS UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AFFECT THE REGION.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD AND/OR PERIODS OF
RAIN...OCCNLY HEAVY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS UPPER LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. PREVAILING
MVFR/IFR THE GENERAL RULE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDS AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN/SHOWERS LESSENS OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR STILL LIKELY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...TRENDING TO MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG







000
FXUS61 KBTV 201908
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
308 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING ABOUT THE ONLY
DRY DAY OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE
TODAY AS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TOWARD LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER LONG ISLAND DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AND SET THE STAGE FOR MORE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT MONDAY...ONCE AGAIN, FORECAST FOR THE DAY IS
PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. LIGHT RAIN HAS JUST REACHED THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND RADAR SHOWS ECHOS STREAMING EASTWARD. THINK THAT MUCH
OF THIS WILL DRY UP AS IT DOES MOVE EAST AS THE LOW LEVEL AS
FAIRLY DRY. STILL A FEW SPRINKLES/BRIEF LIGHT RAIN IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS CLOSE TO THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HAVE THUS MODIFIED THE POP FIELD TO REFLECT
THIS MORE EAST/NORTHEAST MOVEMENT.

HAVE MADE ADJUSTEMENTS TO THE POP FIELD EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT BASED
UPON THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE, WITH A LITTLE MORE WEIGHT TOWARD THE
SREF OUTPUT.

BASICALLY WITH THE UPPER TROF BEGINNING TO DEEPEN, THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE (AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION) WON`T BE MAKING AS MUCH
OF A PROGRESSION TO THE EAST, BUT RATHER MORE TO THE SOUTH. THUS
HAVE KEPT HIGHEST POPS OUT ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK, TRENDING LOWER THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ONE GOES. SO HAVE
A 60-80% OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DOWN TO 15-25% IN THE LOWER
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE WARMING FAIRLY
QUICKLY (WHITEFACE MOUNTAIN SUMMIT HAS JUST REACHED 32F), SO NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN.

STILL NEED TO EVALUATE OVERNIGHT LOWS, BUT THINKING WITH THE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION, IT WON`T DROP ALL THAT MUCH FROM
WHATEVER WE REACH FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER TROF OFF TO THE WEST WILL
DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND ULTIMATELY CUT-OFF DOWN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
SET UP SHOP JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AND AS WE KNOW, CUT-OFFS
ARE "CUT-OFF" FROM THE MAIN FLOW, SO THAT MEANS THEY DON`T MOVE
VERY QUICKLY.

12Z GUIDANCE STILL ALL SHOWING THIS SAME SCENARIO, SO CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT WE`VE GOT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET CONDITIONS.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED AND BRING IN COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE -- RESULTING IN A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY (AND BEYOND).

NEED TO LOOK MORE AT THE 12Z GUIDANCE FOR QPF AMOUNTS, THOUGH
FIRST SKIM THROUGH SEEMS TO INDICATE WHAT WE CURRENTLY HAVE SEEMS
TO BE IN THE BALLPARK -- WHICH IS A WIDESPREAD 1"+ BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH EVEN MORE FALLING THURSDAY.

I`LL BE BACK IN A BIT WITH MORE DETAILS ON TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO PULL
SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND MARITIMES
BY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. DEFORMATIONAL FORCING CONTINUES TO
BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FCST AREA WHERE MODERATE MID LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE
UNDERCUT BY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLIES. THIS VEERING/WARM THERMAL
ADVECTIVE PROFILE OFTEN FAVORS MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER PCPN
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE I`LL MAINTAIN
HIGH POPS AND HEAVIEST QPF.

STEADIER PCPN/RAFL THEN SLOWLY TAPERS TO SCT SHOWERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS DEFORMATION WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT. HOWEVER...WITH
CONTINUED MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF ADDL TAIL END
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IT WON`T COMPLETELY DRY OUT UNTIL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FINALLY
MAKES SOME INROADS EASTWARD. CONTINUED PRIOR TRENDS IN REGARD TO
TEMPS BY UNDERCUTTING MOS HIGHS AND NARROWING MEAN DIURNAL RANGES
DURING THU/FRI TIME FRAME WITH THE CLOUDS/PCPN/NORTHERLY
FLOW...GENERALLY OFFERING A RATHER HIGH DEGREE OF HOMOGENEITY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION...INCLUDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VALUES FOR THE
MOST PART SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCALES
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. THEREAFTER...READINGS MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS
THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES WEAKEN AND PROGS OF AT LEAST SOME
PARTIAL SUN GRADUALLY INCREASE...ESP BY NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AIRMET ADVSYS FOR MODERATE ICING POTL FROM 080 AGL TO 180 AGL
THROUGH 03Z AREA WIDE...

THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...SLOWLY DETERIORATING CONDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLOWLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN
TO OCCUR AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS OF KMSS/KSLK THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND BEYOND...WITH SOME ON AND OFF
SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KBTV/KPBG AFTER 00Z
OR SO. MAINLY DRY AT KMPV/KRUT UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUE...AND POSSIBLY
BEYOND. CIGS A MAINLY VFR THROUGH 06Z...THOUGH SOME PATCHY MVFR AT
KSLK/KMSS IN EVENING SHOWER ACTIVITY. AFTER 06Z CONDS SLOWLY LOWER
TO MVFR AT MOST NRN NY TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY KBTV...REMAINING
VFR AT KMPV/KRUT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VRB TO LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH 00Z...TRENDING CALM TO LIGHT
EAST/NORTHEASTERLY AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KRUT WHERE LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. AT KMSS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN AFTER 09Z TO 10-15 KTS WITH ENHANCED GUSTINESS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR AS UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AFFECT THE REGION.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD AND/OR PERIODS OF
RAIN...OCCNLY HEAVY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS UPPER LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. PREVAILING
MVFR/IFR THE GENERAL RULE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDS AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN/SHOWERS LESSENS OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR STILL LIKELY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...TRENDING TO MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG







000
FXUS61 KBTV 201802
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
202 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING ABOUT THE ONLY
DRY DAY OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE
TODAY AS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TOWARD LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER LONG ISLAND DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AND SET THE STAGE FOR MORE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT MONDAY...ONCE AGAIN, FORECAST FOR THE DAY IS
PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. LIGHT RAIN HAS JUST REACHED THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND RADAR SHOWS ECHOS STREAMING EASTWARD. THINK THAT MUCH
OF THIS WILL DRY UP AS IT DOES MOVE EAST AS THE LOW LEVEL AS
FAIRLY DRY. STILL A FEW SPRINKLES/BRIEF LIGHT RAIN IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS CLOSE TO THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HAVE THUS MODIFIED THE POP FIELD TO REFLECT
THIS MORE EAST/NORTHEAST MOVEMENT.

HAVE MADE ADJUSTEMENTS TO THE POP FIELD EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT BASED
UPON THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE, WITH A LITTLE MORE WEIGHT TOWARD THE
SREF OUTPUT.

BASICALLY WITH THE UPPER TROF BEGINNING TO DEEPEN, THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE (AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION) WON`T BE MAKING AS MUCH
OF A PROGRESSION TO THE EAST, BUT RATHER MORE TO THE SOUTH. THUS
HAVE KEPT HIGHEST POPS OUT ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK, TRENDING LOWER THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ONE GOES. SO HAVE
A 60-80% OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DOWN TO 15-25% IN THE LOWER
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE WARMING FAIRLY
QUICKLY (WHITEFACE MOUNTAIN SUMMIT HAS JUST REACHED 32F), SO NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN.

STILL NEED TO EVALUATE OVERNIGHT LOWS, BUT THINKING WITH THE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION, IT WON`T DROP ALL THAT MUCH FROM
WHATEVER WE REACH FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER TROF OFF TO THE WEST WILL
DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND ULTIMATELY CUT-OFF DOWN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
SET UP SHOP JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AND AS WE KNOW, CUT-OFFS
ARE "CUT-OFF" FROM THE MAIN FLOW, SO THAT MEANS THEY DON`T MOVE
VERY QUICKLY.

12Z GUIDANCE STILL ALL SHOWING THIS SAME SCENARIO, SO CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT WE`VE GOT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET CONDITIONS.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED AND BRING IN COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE -- RESULTING IN A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY (AND BEYOND).

NEED TO LOOK MORE AT THE 12Z GUIDANCE FOR QPF AMOUNTS, THOUGH
FIRST SKIM THROUGH SEEMS TO INDICATE WHAT WE CURRENTLY HAVE SEEMS
TO BE IN THE BALLPARK -- WHICH IS A WIDESPREAD 1"+ BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH EVEN MORE FALLING THURSDAY.

I`LL BE BACK IN A BIT WITH MORE DETAILS ON TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
COUPLE FORECASTS WITH REGARDS TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED WEDS
NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH TOTAL QPF FROM THIS MULTI DAY EVENT
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IN BANK
RISES ON LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS...WITH SOME MINOR LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING POSSIBLE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT
PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TERRAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW.

LATEST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION
NEAR NORFOLK VA ON 00Z THURS...SLOWLY MOVING NORTH ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND BECOMING A VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM
NEAR NYC BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SFC HIGH PRES ACRS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CANADA AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER NYC...WILL
PRODUCE A 3 TO 4 850MB U VECTOR WIND ANOMALY OVER THE NE
CONUS...WITH SPEED VALUES BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS. THIS DEEP AND
MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT PLENTY OF WARM ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.0" BY
THURS OR 1 TO 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BETWEEN 7-9C BY THURS. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH
THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A PROLONG 2 TO 3 DAY RAINFALL
EVENT ACRS OUR AREA. IN ADDITION...GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
850 TO 500MB EASTERLY FLOW...WHILE SFC TO 875MB FLOW IS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AT BTV...RESULTING IN ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ACRS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HELPING TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIFT/QPF. IF POSITION OF LLVL
JET IS FURTHER NORTH...LIKE SOME MODELS PREDICT...ALONG WITH
BETTER RIBBONS OF DEEPER MOISTURE...QPF WOULD BE MUCH LESS ACRS OUR
AREA. WILL CONT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF...AND
FOLLOW HPC QPF GUIDANCE CLOSELY. THIS SUGGESTS A WIDESPREAD 1 TO
3 INCH EVENT...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACRS THE SLV/WESTERN
DACKS...AND NEK/PARTS OF THE LWR CT RIVER VALLEY FROM EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPE...AND SOME HIGHER VALUES IN THE FAVORABLE EASTERLY
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE CENTRAL VT MTNS AND EASTERN DACKS. THE
STEADIER/HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY...WITH
LIGHT MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A DRIER PATTERN WITH
BUILDING HGHTS RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

GIVEN NORTHERLY SFC FLOW AND LOTS OF CLOUDS/PRECIP...EXPECT VERY
LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPS FROM WEDS NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE U30S TO
MID 40S. GIVEN MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING PROFILES...LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN THE VALLEYS AND MTNS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY GIVEN THE WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...THE
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS VERY LIMITED AND CONFINED TO
THE HIGHEST SUMMITS OF THE DACKS ABOVE 4500 FT...VERY EARLY ON
TUES. TEMPS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LVLS BY SAT/SUNDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE 40S/50S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S/40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
     AIRMET ADVSYS FOR MODERATE ICING POTL FROM 080 AGL TO 180 AGL
THROUGH 03Z AREA WIDE...

THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...SLOWLY DETERIORATING CONDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLOWLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN
TO OCCUR AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS OF KMSS/KSLK THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND BEYOND...WITH SOME ON AND OFF
SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KBTV/KPBG AFTER 00Z
OR SO. MAINLY DRY AT KMPV/KRUT UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUE...AND POSSIBLY
BEYOND. CIGS A MAINLY VFR THROUGH 06Z...THOUGH SOME PATCHY MVFR AT
KSLK/KMSS IN EVENING SHOWER ACTIVITY. AFTER 06Z CONDS SLOWLY LOWER
TO MVFR AT MOST NRN NY TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY KBTV...REMAINING
VFR AT KMPV/KRUT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VRB TO LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH 00Z...TRENDING CALM TO LIGHT
EAST/NORTHEASTERLY AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KRUT WHERE LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. AT KMSS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN AFTER 09Z TO 10-15 KTS WITH ENHANCED GUSTINESS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR AS UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AFFECT THE REGION.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD AND/OR PERIODS OF
RAIN...OCCNLY HEAVY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS UPPER LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. PREVAILING
MVFR/IFR THE GENERAL RULE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDS AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN/SHOWERS LESSENS OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR STILL LIKELY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...TRENDING TO MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...JMG







000
FXUS61 KBTV 201802
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
202 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING ABOUT THE ONLY
DRY DAY OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE
TODAY AS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TOWARD LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER LONG ISLAND DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AND SET THE STAGE FOR MORE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT MONDAY...ONCE AGAIN, FORECAST FOR THE DAY IS
PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. LIGHT RAIN HAS JUST REACHED THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND RADAR SHOWS ECHOS STREAMING EASTWARD. THINK THAT MUCH
OF THIS WILL DRY UP AS IT DOES MOVE EAST AS THE LOW LEVEL AS
FAIRLY DRY. STILL A FEW SPRINKLES/BRIEF LIGHT RAIN IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS CLOSE TO THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HAVE THUS MODIFIED THE POP FIELD TO REFLECT
THIS MORE EAST/NORTHEAST MOVEMENT.

HAVE MADE ADJUSTEMENTS TO THE POP FIELD EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT BASED
UPON THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE, WITH A LITTLE MORE WEIGHT TOWARD THE
SREF OUTPUT.

BASICALLY WITH THE UPPER TROF BEGINNING TO DEEPEN, THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE (AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION) WON`T BE MAKING AS MUCH
OF A PROGRESSION TO THE EAST, BUT RATHER MORE TO THE SOUTH. THUS
HAVE KEPT HIGHEST POPS OUT ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK, TRENDING LOWER THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ONE GOES. SO HAVE
A 60-80% OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DOWN TO 15-25% IN THE LOWER
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE WARMING FAIRLY
QUICKLY (WHITEFACE MOUNTAIN SUMMIT HAS JUST REACHED 32F), SO NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN.

STILL NEED TO EVALUATE OVERNIGHT LOWS, BUT THINKING WITH THE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION, IT WON`T DROP ALL THAT MUCH FROM
WHATEVER WE REACH FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT MONDAY...UPPER TROF OFF TO THE WEST WILL
DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AND ULTIMATELY CUT-OFF DOWN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
SET UP SHOP JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. AND AS WE KNOW, CUT-OFFS
ARE "CUT-OFF" FROM THE MAIN FLOW, SO THAT MEANS THEY DON`T MOVE
VERY QUICKLY.

12Z GUIDANCE STILL ALL SHOWING THIS SAME SCENARIO, SO CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT WE`VE GOT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET CONDITIONS.
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED AND BRING IN COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE -- RESULTING IN A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY (AND BEYOND).

NEED TO LOOK MORE AT THE 12Z GUIDANCE FOR QPF AMOUNTS, THOUGH
FIRST SKIM THROUGH SEEMS TO INDICATE WHAT WE CURRENTLY HAVE SEEMS
TO BE IN THE BALLPARK -- WHICH IS A WIDESPREAD 1"+ BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH EVEN MORE FALLING THURSDAY.

I`LL BE BACK IN A BIT WITH MORE DETAILS ON TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
COUPLE FORECASTS WITH REGARDS TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED WEDS
NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH TOTAL QPF FROM THIS MULTI DAY EVENT
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IN BANK
RISES ON LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS...WITH SOME MINOR LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING POSSIBLE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT
PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TERRAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW.

LATEST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION
NEAR NORFOLK VA ON 00Z THURS...SLOWLY MOVING NORTH ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND BECOMING A VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM
NEAR NYC BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SFC HIGH PRES ACRS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CANADA AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER NYC...WILL
PRODUCE A 3 TO 4 850MB U VECTOR WIND ANOMALY OVER THE NE
CONUS...WITH SPEED VALUES BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS. THIS DEEP AND
MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT PLENTY OF WARM ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.0" BY
THURS OR 1 TO 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BETWEEN 7-9C BY THURS. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH
THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A PROLONG 2 TO 3 DAY RAINFALL
EVENT ACRS OUR AREA. IN ADDITION...GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
850 TO 500MB EASTERLY FLOW...WHILE SFC TO 875MB FLOW IS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AT BTV...RESULTING IN ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ACRS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HELPING TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIFT/QPF. IF POSITION OF LLVL
JET IS FURTHER NORTH...LIKE SOME MODELS PREDICT...ALONG WITH
BETTER RIBBONS OF DEEPER MOISTURE...QPF WOULD BE MUCH LESS ACRS OUR
AREA. WILL CONT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF...AND
FOLLOW HPC QPF GUIDANCE CLOSELY. THIS SUGGESTS A WIDESPREAD 1 TO
3 INCH EVENT...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACRS THE SLV/WESTERN
DACKS...AND NEK/PARTS OF THE LWR CT RIVER VALLEY FROM EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPE...AND SOME HIGHER VALUES IN THE FAVORABLE EASTERLY
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE CENTRAL VT MTNS AND EASTERN DACKS. THE
STEADIER/HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY...WITH
LIGHT MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A DRIER PATTERN WITH
BUILDING HGHTS RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

GIVEN NORTHERLY SFC FLOW AND LOTS OF CLOUDS/PRECIP...EXPECT VERY
LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPS FROM WEDS NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE U30S TO
MID 40S. GIVEN MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING PROFILES...LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN THE VALLEYS AND MTNS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY GIVEN THE WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...THE
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS VERY LIMITED AND CONFINED TO
THE HIGHEST SUMMITS OF THE DACKS ABOVE 4500 FT...VERY EARLY ON
TUES. TEMPS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LVLS BY SAT/SUNDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE 40S/50S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S/40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
     AIRMET ADVSYS FOR MODERATE ICING POTL FROM 080 AGL TO 180 AGL
THROUGH 03Z AREA WIDE...

THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...SLOWLY DETERIORATING CONDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLOWLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN
TO OCCUR AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS OF KMSS/KSLK THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND BEYOND...WITH SOME ON AND OFF
SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KBTV/KPBG AFTER 00Z
OR SO. MAINLY DRY AT KMPV/KRUT UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUE...AND POSSIBLY
BEYOND. CIGS A MAINLY VFR THROUGH 06Z...THOUGH SOME PATCHY MVFR AT
KSLK/KMSS IN EVENING SHOWER ACTIVITY. AFTER 06Z CONDS SLOWLY LOWER
TO MVFR AT MOST NRN NY TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY KBTV...REMAINING
VFR AT KMPV/KRUT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VRB TO LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH 00Z...TRENDING CALM TO LIGHT
EAST/NORTHEASTERLY AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KRUT WHERE LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. AT KMSS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN AFTER 09Z TO 10-15 KTS WITH ENHANCED GUSTINESS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR AS UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AFFECT THE REGION.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD AND/OR PERIODS OF
RAIN...OCCNLY HEAVY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS UPPER LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. PREVAILING
MVFR/IFR THE GENERAL RULE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDS AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN/SHOWERS LESSENS OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR STILL LIKELY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...TRENDING TO MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...JMG






000
FXUS61 KBTV 201731
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
131 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING ABOUT THE ONLY
DRY DAY OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE
TODAY AS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TOWARD LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER LONG ISLAND DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AND SET THE STAGE FOR MORE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1035 AM EDT MONDAY...GENERALLY MINOR/NOISE LEVEL/IN-THE-
WEEDS TWEAKS TO THE GOING FORECAST. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS, IT
LOOKS LIKE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY FAR TO OUR WEST OVER
ONTARIO COULD SNEAK INTO THE ST LAWERENCE VALLEY ABOUT 18Z. THIS
IS 2-3 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE FORECAST HAD, SO I SPED UP THE
TIMING JUST A SMIDGE. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RISING
FROM THEIR CHILLY START AND ARE NOW ABOVE FREEZING FOR EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
LOOKS GOOD, SO I LEFT ALL THE TEMPERATURES AS THEY WERE.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON, SO ENJOY THE
LITTLE BIT OF SUN WE WILL SEE TODAY. WE WON`T SEE IT AGAIN FOR A
LOOOONG TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO INTENSIFY TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE BECOMING A MORE
CLOSED CIRCULATION ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION.
DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THUS LOOKING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN
INCH. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
MORE STEADIER PRECIPITATION AS A DEEP EASTERLY FETCH STARTS TO
TAKE SHAPE. OVERALL THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES LITTLE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD ALSO BE IN THE
LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
COUPLE FORECASTS WITH REGARDS TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED WEDS
NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH TOTAL QPF FROM THIS MULTI DAY EVENT
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IN BANK
RISES ON LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS...WITH SOME MINOR LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING POSSIBLE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT
PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TERRAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW.

LATEST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION
NEAR NORFOLK VA ON 00Z THURS...SLOWLY MOVING NORTH ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND BECOMING A VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM
NEAR NYC BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SFC HIGH PRES ACRS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CANADA AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER NYC...WILL
PRODUCE A 3 TO 4 850MB U VECTOR WIND ANOMALY OVER THE NE
CONUS...WITH SPEED VALUES BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS. THIS DEEP AND
MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT PLENTY OF WARM ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.0" BY
THURS OR 1 TO 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BETWEEN 7-9C BY THURS. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH
THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A PROLONG 2 TO 3 DAY RAINFALL
EVENT ACRS OUR AREA. IN ADDITION...GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
850 TO 500MB EASTERLY FLOW...WHILE SFC TO 875MB FLOW IS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AT BTV...RESULTING IN ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ACRS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HELPING TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIFT/QPF. IF POSITION OF LLVL
JET IS FURTHER NORTH...LIKE SOME MODELS PREDICT...ALONG WITH
BETTER RIBBONS OF DEEPER MOISTURE...QPF WOULD BE MUCH LESS ACRS OUR
AREA. WILL CONT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF...AND
FOLLOW HPC QPF GUIDANCE CLOSELY. THIS SUGGESTS A WIDESPREAD 1 TO
3 INCH EVENT...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACRS THE SLV/WESTERN
DACKS...AND NEK/PARTS OF THE LWR CT RIVER VALLEY FROM EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPE...AND SOME HIGHER VALUES IN THE FAVORABLE EASTERLY
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE CENTRAL VT MTNS AND EASTERN DACKS. THE
STEADIER/HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY...WITH
LIGHT MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A DRIER PATTERN WITH
BUILDING HGHTS RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

GIVEN NORTHERLY SFC FLOW AND LOTS OF CLOUDS/PRECIP...EXPECT VERY
LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPS FROM WEDS NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE U30S TO
MID 40S. GIVEN MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING PROFILES...LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN THE VALLEYS AND MTNS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY GIVEN THE WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...THE
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS VERY LIMITED AND CONFINED TO
THE HIGHEST SUMMITS OF THE DACKS ABOVE 4500 FT...VERY EARLY ON
TUES. TEMPS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LVLS BY SAT/SUNDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE 40S/50S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S/40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

...AIRMET ADVSYS FOR MODERATE ICING POTL FROM 080 AGL TO 180 AGL
THROUGH 03Z AREA WIDE...

THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...SLOWLY DETERIORATING CONDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLOWLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN
TO OCCUR AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS OF KMSS/KSLK THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND BEYOND...WITH SOME ON AND OFF
SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KBTV/KPBG AFTER 00Z
OR SO. MAINLY DRY AT KMPV/KRUT UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUE...AND POSSIBLY
BEYOND. CIGS A MAINLY VFR THROUGH 06Z...THOUGH SOME PATCHY MVFR AT
KSLK/KMSS IN EVENING SHOWER ACTIVITY. AFTER 06Z CONDS SLOWLY LOWER
TO MVFR AT MOST NRN NY TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY KBTV...REMAINING
VFR AT KMPV/KRUT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VRB TO LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH 00Z...TRENDING CALM TO LIGHT
EAST/NORTHEASTERLY AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KRUT WHERE LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. AT KMSS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN AFTER 09Z TO 10-15 KTS WITH ENHANCED GUSTINESS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR AS UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AFFECT THE REGION.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD AND/OR PERIODS OF
RAIN...OCCNLY HEAVY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS UPPER LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. PREVAILING
MVFR/IFR THE GENERAL RULE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDS AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN/SHOWERS LESSENS OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR STILL LIKELY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...TRENDING TO MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...JMG







000
FXUS61 KBTV 201731
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
131 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING ABOUT THE ONLY
DRY DAY OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE
TODAY AS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TOWARD LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER LONG ISLAND DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AND SET THE STAGE FOR MORE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1035 AM EDT MONDAY...GENERALLY MINOR/NOISE LEVEL/IN-THE-
WEEDS TWEAKS TO THE GOING FORECAST. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS, IT
LOOKS LIKE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY FAR TO OUR WEST OVER
ONTARIO COULD SNEAK INTO THE ST LAWERENCE VALLEY ABOUT 18Z. THIS
IS 2-3 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE FORECAST HAD, SO I SPED UP THE
TIMING JUST A SMIDGE. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RISING
FROM THEIR CHILLY START AND ARE NOW ABOVE FREEZING FOR EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
LOOKS GOOD, SO I LEFT ALL THE TEMPERATURES AS THEY WERE.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON, SO ENJOY THE
LITTLE BIT OF SUN WE WILL SEE TODAY. WE WON`T SEE IT AGAIN FOR A
LOOOONG TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO INTENSIFY TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE BECOMING A MORE
CLOSED CIRCULATION ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION.
DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THUS LOOKING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN
INCH. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
MORE STEADIER PRECIPITATION AS A DEEP EASTERLY FETCH STARTS TO
TAKE SHAPE. OVERALL THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES LITTLE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD ALSO BE IN THE
LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
COUPLE FORECASTS WITH REGARDS TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED WEDS
NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH TOTAL QPF FROM THIS MULTI DAY EVENT
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IN BANK
RISES ON LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS...WITH SOME MINOR LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING POSSIBLE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT
PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TERRAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW.

LATEST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION
NEAR NORFOLK VA ON 00Z THURS...SLOWLY MOVING NORTH ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND BECOMING A VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM
NEAR NYC BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SFC HIGH PRES ACRS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CANADA AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER NYC...WILL
PRODUCE A 3 TO 4 850MB U VECTOR WIND ANOMALY OVER THE NE
CONUS...WITH SPEED VALUES BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS. THIS DEEP AND
MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT PLENTY OF WARM ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.0" BY
THURS OR 1 TO 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BETWEEN 7-9C BY THURS. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH
THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A PROLONG 2 TO 3 DAY RAINFALL
EVENT ACRS OUR AREA. IN ADDITION...GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
850 TO 500MB EASTERLY FLOW...WHILE SFC TO 875MB FLOW IS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AT BTV...RESULTING IN ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ACRS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HELPING TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIFT/QPF. IF POSITION OF LLVL
JET IS FURTHER NORTH...LIKE SOME MODELS PREDICT...ALONG WITH
BETTER RIBBONS OF DEEPER MOISTURE...QPF WOULD BE MUCH LESS ACRS OUR
AREA. WILL CONT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF...AND
FOLLOW HPC QPF GUIDANCE CLOSELY. THIS SUGGESTS A WIDESPREAD 1 TO
3 INCH EVENT...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACRS THE SLV/WESTERN
DACKS...AND NEK/PARTS OF THE LWR CT RIVER VALLEY FROM EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPE...AND SOME HIGHER VALUES IN THE FAVORABLE EASTERLY
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE CENTRAL VT MTNS AND EASTERN DACKS. THE
STEADIER/HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY...WITH
LIGHT MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A DRIER PATTERN WITH
BUILDING HGHTS RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

GIVEN NORTHERLY SFC FLOW AND LOTS OF CLOUDS/PRECIP...EXPECT VERY
LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPS FROM WEDS NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE U30S TO
MID 40S. GIVEN MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING PROFILES...LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN THE VALLEYS AND MTNS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY GIVEN THE WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...THE
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS VERY LIMITED AND CONFINED TO
THE HIGHEST SUMMITS OF THE DACKS ABOVE 4500 FT...VERY EARLY ON
TUES. TEMPS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LVLS BY SAT/SUNDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE 40S/50S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S/40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

...AIRMET ADVSYS FOR MODERATE ICING POTL FROM 080 AGL TO 180 AGL
THROUGH 03Z AREA WIDE...

THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...SLOWLY DETERIORATING CONDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLOWLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN
TO OCCUR AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS OF KMSS/KSLK THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND BEYOND...WITH SOME ON AND OFF
SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KBTV/KPBG AFTER 00Z
OR SO. MAINLY DRY AT KMPV/KRUT UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUE...AND POSSIBLY
BEYOND. CIGS A MAINLY VFR THROUGH 06Z...THOUGH SOME PATCHY MVFR AT
KSLK/KMSS IN EVENING SHOWER ACTIVITY. AFTER 06Z CONDS SLOWLY LOWER
TO MVFR AT MOST NRN NY TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY KBTV...REMAINING
VFR AT KMPV/KRUT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VRB TO LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH 00Z...TRENDING CALM TO LIGHT
EAST/NORTHEASTERLY AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KRUT WHERE LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. AT KMSS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN AFTER 09Z TO 10-15 KTS WITH ENHANCED GUSTINESS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR AS UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AFFECT THE REGION.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD AND/OR PERIODS OF
RAIN...OCCNLY HEAVY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS UPPER LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. PREVAILING
MVFR/IFR THE GENERAL RULE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDS AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN/SHOWERS LESSENS OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR STILL LIKELY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...TRENDING TO MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...JMG







000
FXUS61 KBTV 201731
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
131 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING ABOUT THE ONLY
DRY DAY OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE
TODAY AS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TOWARD LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER LONG ISLAND DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AND SET THE STAGE FOR MORE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1035 AM EDT MONDAY...GENERALLY MINOR/NOISE LEVEL/IN-THE-
WEEDS TWEAKS TO THE GOING FORECAST. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS, IT
LOOKS LIKE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY FAR TO OUR WEST OVER
ONTARIO COULD SNEAK INTO THE ST LAWERENCE VALLEY ABOUT 18Z. THIS
IS 2-3 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE FORECAST HAD, SO I SPED UP THE
TIMING JUST A SMIDGE. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RISING
FROM THEIR CHILLY START AND ARE NOW ABOVE FREEZING FOR EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
LOOKS GOOD, SO I LEFT ALL THE TEMPERATURES AS THEY WERE.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON, SO ENJOY THE
LITTLE BIT OF SUN WE WILL SEE TODAY. WE WON`T SEE IT AGAIN FOR A
LOOOONG TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO INTENSIFY TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE BECOMING A MORE
CLOSED CIRCULATION ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION.
DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THUS LOOKING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN
INCH. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
MORE STEADIER PRECIPITATION AS A DEEP EASTERLY FETCH STARTS TO
TAKE SHAPE. OVERALL THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES LITTLE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD ALSO BE IN THE
LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
COUPLE FORECASTS WITH REGARDS TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED WEDS
NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH TOTAL QPF FROM THIS MULTI DAY EVENT
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IN BANK
RISES ON LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS...WITH SOME MINOR LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING POSSIBLE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT
PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TERRAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW.

LATEST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION
NEAR NORFOLK VA ON 00Z THURS...SLOWLY MOVING NORTH ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND BECOMING A VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM
NEAR NYC BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SFC HIGH PRES ACRS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CANADA AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER NYC...WILL
PRODUCE A 3 TO 4 850MB U VECTOR WIND ANOMALY OVER THE NE
CONUS...WITH SPEED VALUES BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS. THIS DEEP AND
MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT PLENTY OF WARM ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.0" BY
THURS OR 1 TO 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BETWEEN 7-9C BY THURS. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH
THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A PROLONG 2 TO 3 DAY RAINFALL
EVENT ACRS OUR AREA. IN ADDITION...GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
850 TO 500MB EASTERLY FLOW...WHILE SFC TO 875MB FLOW IS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AT BTV...RESULTING IN ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ACRS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HELPING TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIFT/QPF. IF POSITION OF LLVL
JET IS FURTHER NORTH...LIKE SOME MODELS PREDICT...ALONG WITH
BETTER RIBBONS OF DEEPER MOISTURE...QPF WOULD BE MUCH LESS ACRS OUR
AREA. WILL CONT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF...AND
FOLLOW HPC QPF GUIDANCE CLOSELY. THIS SUGGESTS A WIDESPREAD 1 TO
3 INCH EVENT...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACRS THE SLV/WESTERN
DACKS...AND NEK/PARTS OF THE LWR CT RIVER VALLEY FROM EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPE...AND SOME HIGHER VALUES IN THE FAVORABLE EASTERLY
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE CENTRAL VT MTNS AND EASTERN DACKS. THE
STEADIER/HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY...WITH
LIGHT MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A DRIER PATTERN WITH
BUILDING HGHTS RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

GIVEN NORTHERLY SFC FLOW AND LOTS OF CLOUDS/PRECIP...EXPECT VERY
LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPS FROM WEDS NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE U30S TO
MID 40S. GIVEN MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING PROFILES...LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN THE VALLEYS AND MTNS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY GIVEN THE WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...THE
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS VERY LIMITED AND CONFINED TO
THE HIGHEST SUMMITS OF THE DACKS ABOVE 4500 FT...VERY EARLY ON
TUES. TEMPS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LVLS BY SAT/SUNDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE 40S/50S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S/40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

...AIRMET ADVSYS FOR MODERATE ICING POTL FROM 080 AGL TO 180 AGL
THROUGH 03Z AREA WIDE...

THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...SLOWLY DETERIORATING CONDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLOWLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN
TO OCCUR AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS OF KMSS/KSLK THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND BEYOND...WITH SOME ON AND OFF
SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KBTV/KPBG AFTER 00Z
OR SO. MAINLY DRY AT KMPV/KRUT UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUE...AND POSSIBLY
BEYOND. CIGS A MAINLY VFR THROUGH 06Z...THOUGH SOME PATCHY MVFR AT
KSLK/KMSS IN EVENING SHOWER ACTIVITY. AFTER 06Z CONDS SLOWLY LOWER
TO MVFR AT MOST NRN NY TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY KBTV...REMAINING
VFR AT KMPV/KRUT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VRB TO LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH 00Z...TRENDING CALM TO LIGHT
EAST/NORTHEASTERLY AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KRUT WHERE LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. AT KMSS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN AFTER 09Z TO 10-15 KTS WITH ENHANCED GUSTINESS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR AS UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AFFECT THE REGION.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD AND/OR PERIODS OF
RAIN...OCCNLY HEAVY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS UPPER LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. PREVAILING
MVFR/IFR THE GENERAL RULE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDS AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN/SHOWERS LESSENS OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR STILL LIKELY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...TRENDING TO MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...JMG







000
FXUS61 KBTV 201731
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
131 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING ABOUT THE ONLY
DRY DAY OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE
TODAY AS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TOWARD LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER LONG ISLAND DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AND SET THE STAGE FOR MORE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1035 AM EDT MONDAY...GENERALLY MINOR/NOISE LEVEL/IN-THE-
WEEDS TWEAKS TO THE GOING FORECAST. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS, IT
LOOKS LIKE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY FAR TO OUR WEST OVER
ONTARIO COULD SNEAK INTO THE ST LAWERENCE VALLEY ABOUT 18Z. THIS
IS 2-3 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE FORECAST HAD, SO I SPED UP THE
TIMING JUST A SMIDGE. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RISING
FROM THEIR CHILLY START AND ARE NOW ABOVE FREEZING FOR EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
LOOKS GOOD, SO I LEFT ALL THE TEMPERATURES AS THEY WERE.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON, SO ENJOY THE
LITTLE BIT OF SUN WE WILL SEE TODAY. WE WON`T SEE IT AGAIN FOR A
LOOOONG TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO INTENSIFY TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE BECOMING A MORE
CLOSED CIRCULATION ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION.
DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THUS LOOKING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN
INCH. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
MORE STEADIER PRECIPITATION AS A DEEP EASTERLY FETCH STARTS TO
TAKE SHAPE. OVERALL THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES LITTLE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD ALSO BE IN THE
LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
COUPLE FORECASTS WITH REGARDS TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED WEDS
NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH TOTAL QPF FROM THIS MULTI DAY EVENT
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IN BANK
RISES ON LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS...WITH SOME MINOR LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING POSSIBLE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT
PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TERRAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW.

LATEST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION
NEAR NORFOLK VA ON 00Z THURS...SLOWLY MOVING NORTH ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND BECOMING A VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM
NEAR NYC BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SFC HIGH PRES ACRS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CANADA AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER NYC...WILL
PRODUCE A 3 TO 4 850MB U VECTOR WIND ANOMALY OVER THE NE
CONUS...WITH SPEED VALUES BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS. THIS DEEP AND
MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT PLENTY OF WARM ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.0" BY
THURS OR 1 TO 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BETWEEN 7-9C BY THURS. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH
THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A PROLONG 2 TO 3 DAY RAINFALL
EVENT ACRS OUR AREA. IN ADDITION...GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
850 TO 500MB EASTERLY FLOW...WHILE SFC TO 875MB FLOW IS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AT BTV...RESULTING IN ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ACRS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HELPING TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIFT/QPF. IF POSITION OF LLVL
JET IS FURTHER NORTH...LIKE SOME MODELS PREDICT...ALONG WITH
BETTER RIBBONS OF DEEPER MOISTURE...QPF WOULD BE MUCH LESS ACRS OUR
AREA. WILL CONT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF...AND
FOLLOW HPC QPF GUIDANCE CLOSELY. THIS SUGGESTS A WIDESPREAD 1 TO
3 INCH EVENT...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACRS THE SLV/WESTERN
DACKS...AND NEK/PARTS OF THE LWR CT RIVER VALLEY FROM EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPE...AND SOME HIGHER VALUES IN THE FAVORABLE EASTERLY
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE CENTRAL VT MTNS AND EASTERN DACKS. THE
STEADIER/HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY...WITH
LIGHT MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A DRIER PATTERN WITH
BUILDING HGHTS RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

GIVEN NORTHERLY SFC FLOW AND LOTS OF CLOUDS/PRECIP...EXPECT VERY
LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPS FROM WEDS NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE U30S TO
MID 40S. GIVEN MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING PROFILES...LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN THE VALLEYS AND MTNS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY GIVEN THE WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...THE
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS VERY LIMITED AND CONFINED TO
THE HIGHEST SUMMITS OF THE DACKS ABOVE 4500 FT...VERY EARLY ON
TUES. TEMPS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LVLS BY SAT/SUNDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE 40S/50S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S/40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

...AIRMET ADVSYS FOR MODERATE ICING POTL FROM 080 AGL TO 180 AGL
THROUGH 03Z AREA WIDE...

THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...SLOWLY DETERIORATING CONDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLOWLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN
TO OCCUR AT NORTHERN NY TERMINALS OF KMSS/KSLK THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND BEYOND...WITH SOME ON AND OFF
SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KBTV/KPBG AFTER 00Z
OR SO. MAINLY DRY AT KMPV/KRUT UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUE...AND POSSIBLY
BEYOND. CIGS A MAINLY VFR THROUGH 06Z...THOUGH SOME PATCHY MVFR AT
KSLK/KMSS IN EVENING SHOWER ACTIVITY. AFTER 06Z CONDS SLOWLY LOWER
TO MVFR AT MOST NRN NY TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY KBTV...REMAINING
VFR AT KMPV/KRUT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VRB TO LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH 00Z...TRENDING CALM TO LIGHT
EAST/NORTHEASTERLY AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KRUT WHERE LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. AT KMSS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN AFTER 09Z TO 10-15 KTS WITH ENHANCED GUSTINESS.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR AS UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AFFECT THE REGION.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD AND/OR PERIODS OF
RAIN...OCCNLY HEAVY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS UPPER LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. PREVAILING
MVFR/IFR THE GENERAL RULE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDS AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN/SHOWERS LESSENS OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR STILL LIKELY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...TRENDING TO MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...JMG







000
FXUS61 KALY 201719
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
119 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...AND INTENSIFY
AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TODAY...WITH A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT...STILL SOME BREAKS IN THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS
TRANSLATING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MORE PERSISTENT
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY THICKEN AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM SW TO NE DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS FOR RAIN...THUS FAR LITTLE IF ANY HAS REACHED THE SFC DESPITE
SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS LOW
LEVEL REMAIN QUITE DRY. AS MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
STRENGTHENS...IT APPEARS THAT SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE SFC ACROSS THIS REGION BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. OTHER AREAS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY DRY THROUGH
SUNSET...OTHER THAN SOME POSSIBLE VIRGA FALLING FROM THE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS.

MAX TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 50S IN VALLEY
AREAS...AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN EVEN COOLER...ONLY MID 40S...DUE TO MORE PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER AND DEVELOPING SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CUT-OFF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...LIKELY CENTERED SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MODELS IN TERMS OF LARGE-SCALE FEATURE
PLACEMENT...BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING QPF
WHICH IS TYPICAL WHEN DEALING WITH CUT-OFF LOWS. 00Z GEFS INDICATING
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OF -3 TO -4 STDEV WITH OUR REGION
DOWNSTREAM OF STRONGEST ANOMALIES. THIS SIGNAL IS USUALLY INDICATIVE
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT
AMOUNTS OR LOCATIONS THAT WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

WHILE THURSDAY WILL STILL BE RATHER GLOOMY WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW ONLY SLOWLY MEANDERING EASTWARD TOWARDS CAPE COD AND A
MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING...THE STRONGEST WIND ANOMALIES
SHOULD START TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
BE LESS PROLIFIC BY THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY POPS.
WHILE IT WILL BE COOL AND DAMP...TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO NOT LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.

THE CUT-OFF LOW SHOULD START TO FINALLY PULL AWAY AND OUT TO SEA ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY...WILL CONFINE
HIGHER POPS TO FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND...AS SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
RETURN AFTER AN EXPECTED OVERCAST WORK WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CUT-OFF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...LIKELY CENTERED SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MODELS IN TERMS OF LARGE-SCALE FEATURE
PLACEMENT...BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING QPF
WHICH IS TYPICAL WHEN DEALING WITH CUT-OFF LOWS. 00Z GEFS INDICATING
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OF -3 TO -4 STDEV WITH OUR REGION
DOWNSTREAM OF STRONGEST ANOMALIES. THIS SIGNAL IS USUALLY INDICATIVE
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT
AMOUNTS OR LOCATIONS THAT WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

WHILE THURSDAY WILL STILL BE RATHER GLOOMY WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW ONLY SLOWLY MEANDERING EASTWARD TOWARDS CAPE COD AND A
MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING...THE STRONGEST WIND ANOMALIES
SHOULD START TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
BE LESS PROLIFIC BY THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY POPS.
WHILE IT WILL BE COOL AND DAMP...TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO NOT LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.

THE CUT-OFF LOW SHOULD START TO FINALLY PULL AWAY AND OUT TO SEA ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY...WILL CONFINE
HIGHER POPS TO FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND...AS SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
RETURN AFTER AN EXPECTED OVERCAST WORK WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
ENDING 18Z TUESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALREADY SPREADING
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. CEILING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT
REMAIN IN VFR RANGE AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z...SO WILL MENTION VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME SHOWERS AFFECTING
ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z-18Z BUT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO
BE TOO LIMITED TO INDICATE A TEMPO OR EVEN A PROB30...BUT LATER
TAF ISSUANCES WILL BETTER RESOLVE HOW MUCH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
THERE WILL BE TUESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-8 KTS THIS AFTERNOON..THEN
DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM TONIGHT...THEN VARIABLE AT 5KT OR LESS
TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 35 AND
50 PERCENT.

A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT OUR WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY FRIDAY. ALL AREAS
ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL DURING
THIS PERIOD.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 201719
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
119 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...AND INTENSIFY
AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TODAY...WITH A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT...STILL SOME BREAKS IN THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS
TRANSLATING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MORE PERSISTENT
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY THICKEN AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM SW TO NE DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS FOR RAIN...THUS FAR LITTLE IF ANY HAS REACHED THE SFC DESPITE
SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS LOW
LEVEL REMAIN QUITE DRY. AS MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
STRENGTHENS...IT APPEARS THAT SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE SFC ACROSS THIS REGION BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. OTHER AREAS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY DRY THROUGH
SUNSET...OTHER THAN SOME POSSIBLE VIRGA FALLING FROM THE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS.

MAX TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 50S IN VALLEY
AREAS...AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN EVEN COOLER...ONLY MID 40S...DUE TO MORE PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER AND DEVELOPING SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CUT-OFF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...LIKELY CENTERED SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MODELS IN TERMS OF LARGE-SCALE FEATURE
PLACEMENT...BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING QPF
WHICH IS TYPICAL WHEN DEALING WITH CUT-OFF LOWS. 00Z GEFS INDICATING
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OF -3 TO -4 STDEV WITH OUR REGION
DOWNSTREAM OF STRONGEST ANOMALIES. THIS SIGNAL IS USUALLY INDICATIVE
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT
AMOUNTS OR LOCATIONS THAT WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

WHILE THURSDAY WILL STILL BE RATHER GLOOMY WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW ONLY SLOWLY MEANDERING EASTWARD TOWARDS CAPE COD AND A
MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING...THE STRONGEST WIND ANOMALIES
SHOULD START TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
BE LESS PROLIFIC BY THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY POPS.
WHILE IT WILL BE COOL AND DAMP...TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO NOT LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.

THE CUT-OFF LOW SHOULD START TO FINALLY PULL AWAY AND OUT TO SEA ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY...WILL CONFINE
HIGHER POPS TO FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND...AS SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
RETURN AFTER AN EXPECTED OVERCAST WORK WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CUT-OFF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...LIKELY CENTERED SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MODELS IN TERMS OF LARGE-SCALE FEATURE
PLACEMENT...BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING QPF
WHICH IS TYPICAL WHEN DEALING WITH CUT-OFF LOWS. 00Z GEFS INDICATING
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OF -3 TO -4 STDEV WITH OUR REGION
DOWNSTREAM OF STRONGEST ANOMALIES. THIS SIGNAL IS USUALLY INDICATIVE
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT
AMOUNTS OR LOCATIONS THAT WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

WHILE THURSDAY WILL STILL BE RATHER GLOOMY WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW ONLY SLOWLY MEANDERING EASTWARD TOWARDS CAPE COD AND A
MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING...THE STRONGEST WIND ANOMALIES
SHOULD START TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
BE LESS PROLIFIC BY THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY POPS.
WHILE IT WILL BE COOL AND DAMP...TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO NOT LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.

THE CUT-OFF LOW SHOULD START TO FINALLY PULL AWAY AND OUT TO SEA ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY...WILL CONFINE
HIGHER POPS TO FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND...AS SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
RETURN AFTER AN EXPECTED OVERCAST WORK WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
ENDING 18Z TUESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALREADY SPREADING
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. CEILING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT
REMAIN IN VFR RANGE AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z...SO WILL MENTION VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME SHOWERS AFFECTING
ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z-18Z BUT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO
BE TOO LIMITED TO INDICATE A TEMPO OR EVEN A PROB30...BUT LATER
TAF ISSUANCES WILL BETTER RESOLVE HOW MUCH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
THERE WILL BE TUESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-8 KTS THIS AFTERNOON..THEN
DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM TONIGHT...THEN VARIABLE AT 5KT OR LESS
TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 35 AND
50 PERCENT.

A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT OUR WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY FRIDAY. ALL AREAS
ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL DURING
THIS PERIOD.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 201647
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1247 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...AND INTENSIFY
AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TODAY...WITH A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT...STILL SOME BREAKS IN THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS
TRANSLATING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MORE PERSISTENT
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY THICKEN AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM SW TO NE DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS FOR RAIN...THUS FAR LITTLE IF ANY HAS REACHED THE SFC DESPITE
SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS LOW
LEVEL REMAIN QUITE DRY. AS MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
STRENGTHENS...IT APPEARS THAT SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE SFC ACROSS THIS REGION BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. OTHER AREAS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY DRY THROUGH
SUNSET...OTHER THAN SOME POSSIBLE VIRGA FALLING FROM THE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS.

MAX TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 50S IN VALLEY
AREAS...AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN EVEN COOLER...ONLY MID 40S...DUE TO MORE PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER AND DEVELOPING SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CUT-OFF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...LIKELY CENTERED SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MODELS IN TERMS OF LARGE-SCALE FEATURE
PLACEMENT...BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING QPF
WHICH IS TYPICAL WHEN DEALING WITH CUT-OFF LOWS. 00Z GEFS INDICATING
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OF -3 TO -4 STDEV WITH OUR REGION
DOWNSTREAM OF STRONGEST ANOMALIES. THIS SIGNAL IS USUALLY INDICATIVE
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT
AMOUNTS OR LOCATIONS THAT WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

WHILE THURSDAY WILL STILL BE RATHER GLOOMY WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW ONLY SLOWLY MEANDERING EASTWARD TOWARDS CAPE COD AND A
MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING...THE STRONGEST WIND ANOMALIES
SHOULD START TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
BE LESS PROLIFIC BY THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY POPS.
WHILE IT WILL BE COOL AND DAMP...TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO NOT LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.

THE CUT-OFF LOW SHOULD START TO FINALLY PULL AWAY AND OUT TO SEA ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY...WILL CONFINE
HIGHER POPS TO FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND...AS SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
RETURN AFTER AN EXPECTED OVERCAST WORK WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CUT-OFF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...LIKELY CENTERED SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MODELS IN TERMS OF LARGE-SCALE FEATURE
PLACEMENT...BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING QPF
WHICH IS TYPICAL WHEN DEALING WITH CUT-OFF LOWS. 00Z GEFS INDICATING
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OF -3 TO -4 STDEV WITH OUR REGION
DOWNSTREAM OF STRONGEST ANOMALIES. THIS SIGNAL IS USUALLY INDICATIVE
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT
AMOUNTS OR LOCATIONS THAT WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

WHILE THURSDAY WILL STILL BE RATHER GLOOMY WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW ONLY SLOWLY MEANDERING EASTWARD TOWARDS CAPE COD AND A
MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING...THE STRONGEST WIND ANOMALIES
SHOULD START TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
BE LESS PROLIFIC BY THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY POPS.
WHILE IT WILL BE COOL AND DAMP...TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO NOT LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.

THE CUT-OFF LOW SHOULD START TO FINALLY PULL AWAY AND OUT TO SEA ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY...WILL CONFINE
HIGHER POPS TO FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND...AS SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
RETURN AFTER AN EXPECTED OVERCAST WORK WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
ENDING 12Z TUESDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. CIG HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY THROUGH TODAY...AND SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN IN
VFR RANGE AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...SO WILL MENTION VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-8 KTS
BY NOON TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 35 AND
50 PERCENT.

A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT OUR WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY FRIDAY. ALL AREAS
ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL DURING
THIS PERIOD.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 201647
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1247 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...AND INTENSIFY
AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TODAY...WITH A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT...STILL SOME BREAKS IN THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS
TRANSLATING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MORE PERSISTENT
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY THICKEN AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM SW TO NE DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS FOR RAIN...THUS FAR LITTLE IF ANY HAS REACHED THE SFC DESPITE
SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS LOW
LEVEL REMAIN QUITE DRY. AS MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
STRENGTHENS...IT APPEARS THAT SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE SFC ACROSS THIS REGION BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. OTHER AREAS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY DRY THROUGH
SUNSET...OTHER THAN SOME POSSIBLE VIRGA FALLING FROM THE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS.

MAX TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 50S IN VALLEY
AREAS...AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN EVEN COOLER...ONLY MID 40S...DUE TO MORE PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER AND DEVELOPING SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CUT-OFF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...LIKELY CENTERED SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MODELS IN TERMS OF LARGE-SCALE FEATURE
PLACEMENT...BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING QPF
WHICH IS TYPICAL WHEN DEALING WITH CUT-OFF LOWS. 00Z GEFS INDICATING
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OF -3 TO -4 STDEV WITH OUR REGION
DOWNSTREAM OF STRONGEST ANOMALIES. THIS SIGNAL IS USUALLY INDICATIVE
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT
AMOUNTS OR LOCATIONS THAT WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

WHILE THURSDAY WILL STILL BE RATHER GLOOMY WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW ONLY SLOWLY MEANDERING EASTWARD TOWARDS CAPE COD AND A
MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING...THE STRONGEST WIND ANOMALIES
SHOULD START TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
BE LESS PROLIFIC BY THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY POPS.
WHILE IT WILL BE COOL AND DAMP...TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO NOT LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.

THE CUT-OFF LOW SHOULD START TO FINALLY PULL AWAY AND OUT TO SEA ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY...WILL CONFINE
HIGHER POPS TO FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND...AS SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
RETURN AFTER AN EXPECTED OVERCAST WORK WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CUT-OFF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...LIKELY CENTERED SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MODELS IN TERMS OF LARGE-SCALE FEATURE
PLACEMENT...BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING QPF
WHICH IS TYPICAL WHEN DEALING WITH CUT-OFF LOWS. 00Z GEFS INDICATING
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OF -3 TO -4 STDEV WITH OUR REGION
DOWNSTREAM OF STRONGEST ANOMALIES. THIS SIGNAL IS USUALLY INDICATIVE
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT
AMOUNTS OR LOCATIONS THAT WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

WHILE THURSDAY WILL STILL BE RATHER GLOOMY WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW ONLY SLOWLY MEANDERING EASTWARD TOWARDS CAPE COD AND A
MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING...THE STRONGEST WIND ANOMALIES
SHOULD START TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
BE LESS PROLIFIC BY THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY POPS.
WHILE IT WILL BE COOL AND DAMP...TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO NOT LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.

THE CUT-OFF LOW SHOULD START TO FINALLY PULL AWAY AND OUT TO SEA ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY...WILL CONFINE
HIGHER POPS TO FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND...AS SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
RETURN AFTER AN EXPECTED OVERCAST WORK WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
ENDING 12Z TUESDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. CIG HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY THROUGH TODAY...AND SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN IN
VFR RANGE AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...SO WILL MENTION VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-8 KTS
BY NOON TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 35 AND
50 PERCENT.

A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT OUR WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY FRIDAY. ALL AREAS
ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL DURING
THIS PERIOD.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 201647
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1247 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...AND INTENSIFY
AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TODAY...WITH A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT...STILL SOME BREAKS IN THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS
TRANSLATING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MORE PERSISTENT
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY THICKEN AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM SW TO NE DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS FOR RAIN...THUS FAR LITTLE IF ANY HAS REACHED THE SFC DESPITE
SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS LOW
LEVEL REMAIN QUITE DRY. AS MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
STRENGTHENS...IT APPEARS THAT SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE SFC ACROSS THIS REGION BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. OTHER AREAS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY DRY THROUGH
SUNSET...OTHER THAN SOME POSSIBLE VIRGA FALLING FROM THE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS.

MAX TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 50S IN VALLEY
AREAS...AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN EVEN COOLER...ONLY MID 40S...DUE TO MORE PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER AND DEVELOPING SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CUT-OFF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...LIKELY CENTERED SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MODELS IN TERMS OF LARGE-SCALE FEATURE
PLACEMENT...BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING QPF
WHICH IS TYPICAL WHEN DEALING WITH CUT-OFF LOWS. 00Z GEFS INDICATING
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OF -3 TO -4 STDEV WITH OUR REGION
DOWNSTREAM OF STRONGEST ANOMALIES. THIS SIGNAL IS USUALLY INDICATIVE
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT
AMOUNTS OR LOCATIONS THAT WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

WHILE THURSDAY WILL STILL BE RATHER GLOOMY WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW ONLY SLOWLY MEANDERING EASTWARD TOWARDS CAPE COD AND A
MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING...THE STRONGEST WIND ANOMALIES
SHOULD START TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
BE LESS PROLIFIC BY THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY POPS.
WHILE IT WILL BE COOL AND DAMP...TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO NOT LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.

THE CUT-OFF LOW SHOULD START TO FINALLY PULL AWAY AND OUT TO SEA ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY...WILL CONFINE
HIGHER POPS TO FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND...AS SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
RETURN AFTER AN EXPECTED OVERCAST WORK WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CUT-OFF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...LIKELY CENTERED SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MODELS IN TERMS OF LARGE-SCALE FEATURE
PLACEMENT...BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING QPF
WHICH IS TYPICAL WHEN DEALING WITH CUT-OFF LOWS. 00Z GEFS INDICATING
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OF -3 TO -4 STDEV WITH OUR REGION
DOWNSTREAM OF STRONGEST ANOMALIES. THIS SIGNAL IS USUALLY INDICATIVE
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT
AMOUNTS OR LOCATIONS THAT WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

WHILE THURSDAY WILL STILL BE RATHER GLOOMY WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW ONLY SLOWLY MEANDERING EASTWARD TOWARDS CAPE COD AND A
MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING...THE STRONGEST WIND ANOMALIES
SHOULD START TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
BE LESS PROLIFIC BY THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY POPS.
WHILE IT WILL BE COOL AND DAMP...TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO NOT LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.

THE CUT-OFF LOW SHOULD START TO FINALLY PULL AWAY AND OUT TO SEA ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY...WILL CONFINE
HIGHER POPS TO FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND...AS SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
RETURN AFTER AN EXPECTED OVERCAST WORK WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
ENDING 12Z TUESDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. CIG HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY THROUGH TODAY...AND SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN IN
VFR RANGE AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...SO WILL MENTION VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-8 KTS
BY NOON TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 35 AND
50 PERCENT.

A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT OUR WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY FRIDAY. ALL AREAS
ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL DURING
THIS PERIOD.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 201647
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1247 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...AND INTENSIFY
AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TODAY...WITH A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT...STILL SOME BREAKS IN THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS
TRANSLATING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MORE PERSISTENT
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY THICKEN AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM SW TO NE DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS FOR RAIN...THUS FAR LITTLE IF ANY HAS REACHED THE SFC DESPITE
SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AS LOW
LEVEL REMAIN QUITE DRY. AS MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
STRENGTHENS...IT APPEARS THAT SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE SFC ACROSS THIS REGION BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. OTHER AREAS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY DRY THROUGH
SUNSET...OTHER THAN SOME POSSIBLE VIRGA FALLING FROM THE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS.

MAX TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 50S IN VALLEY
AREAS...AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN EVEN COOLER...ONLY MID 40S...DUE TO MORE PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER AND DEVELOPING SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CUT-OFF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...LIKELY CENTERED SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MODELS IN TERMS OF LARGE-SCALE FEATURE
PLACEMENT...BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING QPF
WHICH IS TYPICAL WHEN DEALING WITH CUT-OFF LOWS. 00Z GEFS INDICATING
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OF -3 TO -4 STDEV WITH OUR REGION
DOWNSTREAM OF STRONGEST ANOMALIES. THIS SIGNAL IS USUALLY INDICATIVE
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT
AMOUNTS OR LOCATIONS THAT WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

WHILE THURSDAY WILL STILL BE RATHER GLOOMY WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW ONLY SLOWLY MEANDERING EASTWARD TOWARDS CAPE COD AND A
MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING...THE STRONGEST WIND ANOMALIES
SHOULD START TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
BE LESS PROLIFIC BY THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY POPS.
WHILE IT WILL BE COOL AND DAMP...TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO NOT LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.

THE CUT-OFF LOW SHOULD START TO FINALLY PULL AWAY AND OUT TO SEA ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY...WILL CONFINE
HIGHER POPS TO FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND...AS SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
RETURN AFTER AN EXPECTED OVERCAST WORK WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CUT-OFF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...LIKELY CENTERED SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MODELS IN TERMS OF LARGE-SCALE FEATURE
PLACEMENT...BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING QPF
WHICH IS TYPICAL WHEN DEALING WITH CUT-OFF LOWS. 00Z GEFS INDICATING
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OF -3 TO -4 STDEV WITH OUR REGION
DOWNSTREAM OF STRONGEST ANOMALIES. THIS SIGNAL IS USUALLY INDICATIVE
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT
AMOUNTS OR LOCATIONS THAT WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

WHILE THURSDAY WILL STILL BE RATHER GLOOMY WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW ONLY SLOWLY MEANDERING EASTWARD TOWARDS CAPE COD AND A
MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING...THE STRONGEST WIND ANOMALIES
SHOULD START TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
BE LESS PROLIFIC BY THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY POPS.
WHILE IT WILL BE COOL AND DAMP...TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO NOT LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.

THE CUT-OFF LOW SHOULD START TO FINALLY PULL AWAY AND OUT TO SEA ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY...WILL CONFINE
HIGHER POPS TO FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND...AS SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
RETURN AFTER AN EXPECTED OVERCAST WORK WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
ENDING 12Z TUESDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. CIG HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY THROUGH TODAY...AND SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN IN
VFR RANGE AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...SO WILL MENTION VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-8 KTS
BY NOON TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 35 AND
50 PERCENT.

A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT OUR WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY FRIDAY. ALL AREAS
ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL DURING
THIS PERIOD.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 201434
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1034 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING ABOUT THE ONLY
DRY DAY OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE
TODAY AS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TOWARD LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER LONG ISLAND DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AND SET THE STAGE FOR MORE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1035 AM EDT MONDAY...GENERALLY MINOR/NOISE LEVEL/IN-THE-
WEEDS TWEAKS TO THE GOING FORECAST. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS, IT
LOOKS LIKE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY FAR TO OUR WEST OVER
ONTARIO COULD SNEAK INTO THE ST LAWERENCE VALLEY ABOUT 18Z. THIS
IS 2-3 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE FORECAST HAD, SO I SPED UP THE
TIMING JUST A SMIDGE. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RISING
FROM THEIR CHILLY START AND ARE NOW ABOVE FREEZING FOR EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
LOOKS GOOD, SO I LEFT ALL THE TEMPERATURES AS THEY WERE.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON, SO ENJOY THE
LITTLE BIT OF SUN WE WILL SEE TODAY. WE WON`T SEE IT AGAIN FOR A
LOOOONG TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO INTENSIFY TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE BECOMING A MORE
CLOSED CIRCULATION ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION.
DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THUS LOOKING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN
INCH. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
MORE STEADIER PRECIPITATION AS A DEEP EASTERLY FETCH STARTS TO
TAKE SHAPE. OVERALL THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES LITTLE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD ALSO BE IN THE
LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
COUPLE FORECASTS WITH REGARDS TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED WEDS
NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH TOTAL QPF FROM THIS MULTI DAY EVENT
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IN BANK
RISES ON LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS...WITH SOME MINOR LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING POSSIBLE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT
PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TERRAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW.

LATEST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION
NEAR NORFOLK VA ON 00Z THURS...SLOWLY MOVING NORTH ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND BECOMING A VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM
NEAR NYC BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SFC HIGH PRES ACRS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CANADA AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER NYC...WILL
PRODUCE A 3 TO 4 850MB U VECTOR WIND ANOMALY OVER THE NE
CONUS...WITH SPEED VALUES BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS. THIS DEEP AND
MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT PLENTY OF WARM ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.0" BY
THURS OR 1 TO 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BETWEEN 7-9C BY THURS. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH
THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A PROLONG 2 TO 3 DAY RAINFALL
EVENT ACRS OUR AREA. IN ADDITION...GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
850 TO 500MB EASTERLY FLOW...WHILE SFC TO 875MB FLOW IS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AT BTV...RESULTING IN ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ACRS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HELPING TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIFT/QPF. IF POSITION OF LLVL
JET IS FURTHER NORTH...LIKE SOME MODELS PREDICT...ALONG WITH
BETTER RIBBONS OF DEEPER MOISTURE...QPF WOULD BE MUCH LESS ACRS OUR
AREA. WILL CONT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF...AND
FOLLOW HPC QPF GUIDANCE CLOSELY. THIS SUGGESTS A WIDESPREAD 1 TO
3 INCH EVENT...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACRS THE SLV/WESTERN
DACKS...AND NEK/PARTS OF THE LWR CT RIVER VALLEY FROM EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPE...AND SOME HIGHER VALUES IN THE FAVORABLE EASTERLY
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE CENTRAL VT MTNS AND EASTERN DACKS. THE
STEADIER/HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY...WITH
LIGHT MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A DRIER PATTERN WITH
BUILDING HGHTS RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

GIVEN NORTHERLY SFC FLOW AND LOTS OF CLOUDS/PRECIP...EXPECT VERY
LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPS FROM WEDS NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE U30S TO
MID 40S. GIVEN MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING PROFILES...LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN THE VALLEYS AND MTNS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY GIVEN THE WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...THE
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS VERY LIMITED AND CONFINED TO
THE HIGHEST SUMMITS OF THE DACKS ABOVE 4500 FT...VERY EARLY ON
TUES. TEMPS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LVLS BY SAT/SUNDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE 40S/50S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S/40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...CLOUDS ARE ALREADY APPROACHING THE
SLV/NORTHERN NY THIS MORNING WITH CRNT OBS SHOWING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ATTM. CIGS AT SLK HAVE DROPPED TO MVFR WITH SOUTHWEST UPSLOPE AND
WEAK LAKE ONTARIO MOISTURE INTERACTION. WL USE A TEMPO GROUP TO
COVER THIS MVFR CIG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING. NEXT SYSTEM WL START TO
IMPACT OUR BWTN 02-06Z...WITH LOWERING CIGS AND INCREASING CHCS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH EXCEPTION OF
MVFR CIGS AT MSS/MPV AFT 04Z. WINDS WL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4
TO 8 KNOTS...BECOMING NORTHEAST AT MSS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WX WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACRS OUR TAF SITES TUES THRU FRIDAY. DEVELOPING MVFR CIGS
WILL BECOME IFR...ESPECIALLY AT PBG/BTV AND MPV BY WEDS...WITH
MVFR VIS BETWEEN 3-5SM IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF IFR CONDITIONS IS LIKELY THIS WEEK...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV/MSS/PBG. SOME AREAS OF TURBULENCE
IS POSSIBLE WEDS INTO THURS AS RIDGE TOP JET INCREASES AT 35 TO 45
KNOTS FROM THE EAST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER







000
FXUS61 KBTV 201434
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1034 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING ABOUT THE ONLY
DRY DAY OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE
TODAY AS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TOWARD LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER LONG ISLAND DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AND SET THE STAGE FOR MORE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1035 AM EDT MONDAY...GENERALLY MINOR/NOISE LEVEL/IN-THE-
WEEDS TWEAKS TO THE GOING FORECAST. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS, IT
LOOKS LIKE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY FAR TO OUR WEST OVER
ONTARIO COULD SNEAK INTO THE ST LAWERENCE VALLEY ABOUT 18Z. THIS
IS 2-3 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE FORECAST HAD, SO I SPED UP THE
TIMING JUST A SMIDGE. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RISING
FROM THEIR CHILLY START AND ARE NOW ABOVE FREEZING FOR EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
LOOKS GOOD, SO I LEFT ALL THE TEMPERATURES AS THEY WERE.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON, SO ENJOY THE
LITTLE BIT OF SUN WE WILL SEE TODAY. WE WON`T SEE IT AGAIN FOR A
LOOOONG TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO INTENSIFY TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE BECOMING A MORE
CLOSED CIRCULATION ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION.
DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THUS LOOKING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN
INCH. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
MORE STEADIER PRECIPITATION AS A DEEP EASTERLY FETCH STARTS TO
TAKE SHAPE. OVERALL THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES LITTLE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD ALSO BE IN THE
LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
COUPLE FORECASTS WITH REGARDS TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED WEDS
NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH TOTAL QPF FROM THIS MULTI DAY EVENT
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IN BANK
RISES ON LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS...WITH SOME MINOR LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING POSSIBLE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT
PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TERRAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW.

LATEST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION
NEAR NORFOLK VA ON 00Z THURS...SLOWLY MOVING NORTH ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND BECOMING A VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM
NEAR NYC BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SFC HIGH PRES ACRS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CANADA AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER NYC...WILL
PRODUCE A 3 TO 4 850MB U VECTOR WIND ANOMALY OVER THE NE
CONUS...WITH SPEED VALUES BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS. THIS DEEP AND
MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT PLENTY OF WARM ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.0" BY
THURS OR 1 TO 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BETWEEN 7-9C BY THURS. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH
THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A PROLONG 2 TO 3 DAY RAINFALL
EVENT ACRS OUR AREA. IN ADDITION...GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
850 TO 500MB EASTERLY FLOW...WHILE SFC TO 875MB FLOW IS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AT BTV...RESULTING IN ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ACRS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HELPING TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIFT/QPF. IF POSITION OF LLVL
JET IS FURTHER NORTH...LIKE SOME MODELS PREDICT...ALONG WITH
BETTER RIBBONS OF DEEPER MOISTURE...QPF WOULD BE MUCH LESS ACRS OUR
AREA. WILL CONT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF...AND
FOLLOW HPC QPF GUIDANCE CLOSELY. THIS SUGGESTS A WIDESPREAD 1 TO
3 INCH EVENT...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACRS THE SLV/WESTERN
DACKS...AND NEK/PARTS OF THE LWR CT RIVER VALLEY FROM EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPE...AND SOME HIGHER VALUES IN THE FAVORABLE EASTERLY
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE CENTRAL VT MTNS AND EASTERN DACKS. THE
STEADIER/HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY...WITH
LIGHT MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A DRIER PATTERN WITH
BUILDING HGHTS RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

GIVEN NORTHERLY SFC FLOW AND LOTS OF CLOUDS/PRECIP...EXPECT VERY
LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPS FROM WEDS NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE U30S TO
MID 40S. GIVEN MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING PROFILES...LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN THE VALLEYS AND MTNS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY GIVEN THE WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...THE
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS VERY LIMITED AND CONFINED TO
THE HIGHEST SUMMITS OF THE DACKS ABOVE 4500 FT...VERY EARLY ON
TUES. TEMPS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LVLS BY SAT/SUNDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE 40S/50S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S/40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...CLOUDS ARE ALREADY APPROACHING THE
SLV/NORTHERN NY THIS MORNING WITH CRNT OBS SHOWING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ATTM. CIGS AT SLK HAVE DROPPED TO MVFR WITH SOUTHWEST UPSLOPE AND
WEAK LAKE ONTARIO MOISTURE INTERACTION. WL USE A TEMPO GROUP TO
COVER THIS MVFR CIG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING. NEXT SYSTEM WL START TO
IMPACT OUR BWTN 02-06Z...WITH LOWERING CIGS AND INCREASING CHCS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH EXCEPTION OF
MVFR CIGS AT MSS/MPV AFT 04Z. WINDS WL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4
TO 8 KNOTS...BECOMING NORTHEAST AT MSS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WX WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACRS OUR TAF SITES TUES THRU FRIDAY. DEVELOPING MVFR CIGS
WILL BECOME IFR...ESPECIALLY AT PBG/BTV AND MPV BY WEDS...WITH
MVFR VIS BETWEEN 3-5SM IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF IFR CONDITIONS IS LIKELY THIS WEEK...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV/MSS/PBG. SOME AREAS OF TURBULENCE
IS POSSIBLE WEDS INTO THURS AS RIDGE TOP JET INCREASES AT 35 TO 45
KNOTS FROM THE EAST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER







000
FXUS61 KBTV 201434
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1034 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING ABOUT THE ONLY
DRY DAY OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE
TODAY AS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TOWARD LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER LONG ISLAND DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AND SET THE STAGE FOR MORE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1035 AM EDT MONDAY...GENERALLY MINOR/NOISE LEVEL/IN-THE-
WEEDS TWEAKS TO THE GOING FORECAST. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS, IT
LOOKS LIKE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY FAR TO OUR WEST OVER
ONTARIO COULD SNEAK INTO THE ST LAWERENCE VALLEY ABOUT 18Z. THIS
IS 2-3 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE FORECAST HAD, SO I SPED UP THE
TIMING JUST A SMIDGE. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RISING
FROM THEIR CHILLY START AND ARE NOW ABOVE FREEZING FOR EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
LOOKS GOOD, SO I LEFT ALL THE TEMPERATURES AS THEY WERE.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON, SO ENJOY THE
LITTLE BIT OF SUN WE WILL SEE TODAY. WE WON`T SEE IT AGAIN FOR A
LOOOONG TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO INTENSIFY TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE BECOMING A MORE
CLOSED CIRCULATION ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION.
DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THUS LOOKING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN
INCH. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
MORE STEADIER PRECIPITATION AS A DEEP EASTERLY FETCH STARTS TO
TAKE SHAPE. OVERALL THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES LITTLE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD ALSO BE IN THE
LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
COUPLE FORECASTS WITH REGARDS TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED WEDS
NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH TOTAL QPF FROM THIS MULTI DAY EVENT
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IN BANK
RISES ON LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS...WITH SOME MINOR LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING POSSIBLE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT
PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TERRAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW.

LATEST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION
NEAR NORFOLK VA ON 00Z THURS...SLOWLY MOVING NORTH ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND BECOMING A VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM
NEAR NYC BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SFC HIGH PRES ACRS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CANADA AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER NYC...WILL
PRODUCE A 3 TO 4 850MB U VECTOR WIND ANOMALY OVER THE NE
CONUS...WITH SPEED VALUES BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS. THIS DEEP AND
MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT PLENTY OF WARM ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.0" BY
THURS OR 1 TO 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BETWEEN 7-9C BY THURS. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH
THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A PROLONG 2 TO 3 DAY RAINFALL
EVENT ACRS OUR AREA. IN ADDITION...GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
850 TO 500MB EASTERLY FLOW...WHILE SFC TO 875MB FLOW IS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AT BTV...RESULTING IN ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ACRS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HELPING TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIFT/QPF. IF POSITION OF LLVL
JET IS FURTHER NORTH...LIKE SOME MODELS PREDICT...ALONG WITH
BETTER RIBBONS OF DEEPER MOISTURE...QPF WOULD BE MUCH LESS ACRS OUR
AREA. WILL CONT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF...AND
FOLLOW HPC QPF GUIDANCE CLOSELY. THIS SUGGESTS A WIDESPREAD 1 TO
3 INCH EVENT...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACRS THE SLV/WESTERN
DACKS...AND NEK/PARTS OF THE LWR CT RIVER VALLEY FROM EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPE...AND SOME HIGHER VALUES IN THE FAVORABLE EASTERLY
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE CENTRAL VT MTNS AND EASTERN DACKS. THE
STEADIER/HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY...WITH
LIGHT MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A DRIER PATTERN WITH
BUILDING HGHTS RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

GIVEN NORTHERLY SFC FLOW AND LOTS OF CLOUDS/PRECIP...EXPECT VERY
LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPS FROM WEDS NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE U30S TO
MID 40S. GIVEN MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING PROFILES...LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN THE VALLEYS AND MTNS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY GIVEN THE WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...THE
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS VERY LIMITED AND CONFINED TO
THE HIGHEST SUMMITS OF THE DACKS ABOVE 4500 FT...VERY EARLY ON
TUES. TEMPS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LVLS BY SAT/SUNDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE 40S/50S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S/40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...CLOUDS ARE ALREADY APPROACHING THE
SLV/NORTHERN NY THIS MORNING WITH CRNT OBS SHOWING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ATTM. CIGS AT SLK HAVE DROPPED TO MVFR WITH SOUTHWEST UPSLOPE AND
WEAK LAKE ONTARIO MOISTURE INTERACTION. WL USE A TEMPO GROUP TO
COVER THIS MVFR CIG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING. NEXT SYSTEM WL START TO
IMPACT OUR BWTN 02-06Z...WITH LOWERING CIGS AND INCREASING CHCS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH EXCEPTION OF
MVFR CIGS AT MSS/MPV AFT 04Z. WINDS WL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4
TO 8 KNOTS...BECOMING NORTHEAST AT MSS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WX WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACRS OUR TAF SITES TUES THRU FRIDAY. DEVELOPING MVFR CIGS
WILL BECOME IFR...ESPECIALLY AT PBG/BTV AND MPV BY WEDS...WITH
MVFR VIS BETWEEN 3-5SM IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF IFR CONDITIONS IS LIKELY THIS WEEK...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV/MSS/PBG. SOME AREAS OF TURBULENCE
IS POSSIBLE WEDS INTO THURS AS RIDGE TOP JET INCREASES AT 35 TO 45
KNOTS FROM THE EAST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER







000
FXUS61 KBTV 201434
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1034 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING ABOUT THE ONLY
DRY DAY OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE
TODAY AS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TOWARD LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER LONG ISLAND DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AND SET THE STAGE FOR MORE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1035 AM EDT MONDAY...GENERALLY MINOR/NOISE LEVEL/IN-THE-
WEEDS TWEAKS TO THE GOING FORECAST. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS, IT
LOOKS LIKE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY FAR TO OUR WEST OVER
ONTARIO COULD SNEAK INTO THE ST LAWERENCE VALLEY ABOUT 18Z. THIS
IS 2-3 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE FORECAST HAD, SO I SPED UP THE
TIMING JUST A SMIDGE. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RISING
FROM THEIR CHILLY START AND ARE NOW ABOVE FREEZING FOR EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
LOOKS GOOD, SO I LEFT ALL THE TEMPERATURES AS THEY WERE.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON, SO ENJOY THE
LITTLE BIT OF SUN WE WILL SEE TODAY. WE WON`T SEE IT AGAIN FOR A
LOOOONG TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO INTENSIFY TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE BECOMING A MORE
CLOSED CIRCULATION ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION.
DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THUS LOOKING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN
INCH. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
MORE STEADIER PRECIPITATION AS A DEEP EASTERLY FETCH STARTS TO
TAKE SHAPE. OVERALL THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES LITTLE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD ALSO BE IN THE
LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
COUPLE FORECASTS WITH REGARDS TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED WEDS
NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH TOTAL QPF FROM THIS MULTI DAY EVENT
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IN BANK
RISES ON LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS...WITH SOME MINOR LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING POSSIBLE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT
PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TERRAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW.

LATEST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION
NEAR NORFOLK VA ON 00Z THURS...SLOWLY MOVING NORTH ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND BECOMING A VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM
NEAR NYC BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SFC HIGH PRES ACRS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CANADA AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER NYC...WILL
PRODUCE A 3 TO 4 850MB U VECTOR WIND ANOMALY OVER THE NE
CONUS...WITH SPEED VALUES BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS. THIS DEEP AND
MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT PLENTY OF WARM ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.0" BY
THURS OR 1 TO 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BETWEEN 7-9C BY THURS. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH
THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A PROLONG 2 TO 3 DAY RAINFALL
EVENT ACRS OUR AREA. IN ADDITION...GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
850 TO 500MB EASTERLY FLOW...WHILE SFC TO 875MB FLOW IS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AT BTV...RESULTING IN ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ACRS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HELPING TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIFT/QPF. IF POSITION OF LLVL
JET IS FURTHER NORTH...LIKE SOME MODELS PREDICT...ALONG WITH
BETTER RIBBONS OF DEEPER MOISTURE...QPF WOULD BE MUCH LESS ACRS OUR
AREA. WILL CONT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF...AND
FOLLOW HPC QPF GUIDANCE CLOSELY. THIS SUGGESTS A WIDESPREAD 1 TO
3 INCH EVENT...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACRS THE SLV/WESTERN
DACKS...AND NEK/PARTS OF THE LWR CT RIVER VALLEY FROM EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPE...AND SOME HIGHER VALUES IN THE FAVORABLE EASTERLY
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE CENTRAL VT MTNS AND EASTERN DACKS. THE
STEADIER/HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY...WITH
LIGHT MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A DRIER PATTERN WITH
BUILDING HGHTS RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

GIVEN NORTHERLY SFC FLOW AND LOTS OF CLOUDS/PRECIP...EXPECT VERY
LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPS FROM WEDS NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE U30S TO
MID 40S. GIVEN MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING PROFILES...LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN THE VALLEYS AND MTNS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY GIVEN THE WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...THE
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS VERY LIMITED AND CONFINED TO
THE HIGHEST SUMMITS OF THE DACKS ABOVE 4500 FT...VERY EARLY ON
TUES. TEMPS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LVLS BY SAT/SUNDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE 40S/50S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S/40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...CLOUDS ARE ALREADY APPROACHING THE
SLV/NORTHERN NY THIS MORNING WITH CRNT OBS SHOWING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ATTM. CIGS AT SLK HAVE DROPPED TO MVFR WITH SOUTHWEST UPSLOPE AND
WEAK LAKE ONTARIO MOISTURE INTERACTION. WL USE A TEMPO GROUP TO
COVER THIS MVFR CIG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING. NEXT SYSTEM WL START TO
IMPACT OUR BWTN 02-06Z...WITH LOWERING CIGS AND INCREASING CHCS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH EXCEPTION OF
MVFR CIGS AT MSS/MPV AFT 04Z. WINDS WL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4
TO 8 KNOTS...BECOMING NORTHEAST AT MSS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WX WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACRS OUR TAF SITES TUES THRU FRIDAY. DEVELOPING MVFR CIGS
WILL BECOME IFR...ESPECIALLY AT PBG/BTV AND MPV BY WEDS...WITH
MVFR VIS BETWEEN 3-5SM IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF IFR CONDITIONS IS LIKELY THIS WEEK...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV/MSS/PBG. SOME AREAS OF TURBULENCE
IS POSSIBLE WEDS INTO THURS AS RIDGE TOP JET INCREASES AT 35 TO 45
KNOTS FROM THE EAST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER







000
FXUS61 KALY 201357
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
957 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...AND INTENSIFY
AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TODAY...WITH A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE EXPIRED. CLOUDS TENDING TO BREAK UP AS THEY
BUILD EAST BUT EVENTUALLY... THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THE CLOUDS
WILL OVERTAKE ALL AREAS. SOME WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING...AND
MIXING POTENTIAL SUPPORTS CURRENT FORECASTED HIGHS. JUST SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPEATURES AND SKY COVER THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DRY PERIOD FOR A LONG TIME AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS MID/HI CLOUDS SPREAD
OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CUT-OFF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...LIKELY CENTERED SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MODELS IN TERMS OF LARGE-SCALE FEATURE
PLACEMENT...BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING QPF
WHICH IS TYPICAL WHEN DEALING WITH CUT-OFF LOWS. 00Z GEFS INDICATING
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OF -3 TO -4 STDEV WITH OUR REGION
DOWNSTREAM OF STRONGEST ANOMALIES. THIS SIGNAL IS USUALLY INDICATIVE
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT
AMOUNTS OR LOCATIONS THAT WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

WHILE THURSDAY WILL STILL BE RATHER GLOOMY WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW ONLY SLOWLY MEANDERING EASTWARD TOWARDS CAPE COD AND A
MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING...THE STRONGEST WIND ANOMALIES
SHOULD START TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
BE LESS PROLIFIC BY THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY POPS.
WHILE IT WILL BE COOL AND DAMP...TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO NOT LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.

THE CUT-OFF LOW SHOULD START TO FINALLY PULL AWAY AND OUT TO SEA ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY...WILL CONFINE
HIGHER POPS TO FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND...AS SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
RETURN AFTER AN EXPECTED OVERCAST WORK WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CUT-OFF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...LIKELY CENTERED SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MODELS IN TERMS OF LARGE-SCALE FEATURE
PLACEMENT...BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING QPF
WHICH IS TYPICAL WHEN DEALING WITH CUT-OFF LOWS. 00Z GEFS INDICATING
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OF -3 TO -4 STDEV WITH OUR REGION
DOWNSTREAM OF STRONGEST ANOMALIES. THIS SIGNAL IS USUALLY INDICATIVE
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT
AMOUNTS OR LOCATIONS THAT WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

WHILE THURSDAY WILL STILL BE RATHER GLOOMY WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW ONLY SLOWLY MEANDERING EASTWARD TOWARDS CAPE COD AND A
MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING...THE STRONGEST WIND ANOMALIES
SHOULD START TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
BE LESS PROLIFIC BY THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY POPS.
WHILE IT WILL BE COOL AND DAMP...TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO NOT LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.

THE CUT-OFF LOW SHOULD START TO FINALLY PULL AWAY AND OUT TO SEA ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY...WILL CONFINE
HIGHER POPS TO FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND...AS SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
RETURN AFTER AN EXPECTED OVERCAST WORK WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
ENDING 12Z TUESDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. CIG HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY THROUGH TODAY...AND SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN IN
VFR RANGE AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...SO WILL MENTION VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-8 KTS
BY NOON TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 35 AND
50 PERCENT.

A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT OUR WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY FRIDAY. ALL AREAS
ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL DURING
THIS PERIOD.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 201357
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
957 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...AND INTENSIFY
AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TODAY...WITH A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE EXPIRED. CLOUDS TENDING TO BREAK UP AS THEY
BUILD EAST BUT EVENTUALLY... THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THE CLOUDS
WILL OVERTAKE ALL AREAS. SOME WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING...AND
MIXING POTENTIAL SUPPORTS CURRENT FORECASTED HIGHS. JUST SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPEATURES AND SKY COVER THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DRY PERIOD FOR A LONG TIME AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS MID/HI CLOUDS SPREAD
OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CUT-OFF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...LIKELY CENTERED SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MODELS IN TERMS OF LARGE-SCALE FEATURE
PLACEMENT...BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING QPF
WHICH IS TYPICAL WHEN DEALING WITH CUT-OFF LOWS. 00Z GEFS INDICATING
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OF -3 TO -4 STDEV WITH OUR REGION
DOWNSTREAM OF STRONGEST ANOMALIES. THIS SIGNAL IS USUALLY INDICATIVE
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT
AMOUNTS OR LOCATIONS THAT WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

WHILE THURSDAY WILL STILL BE RATHER GLOOMY WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW ONLY SLOWLY MEANDERING EASTWARD TOWARDS CAPE COD AND A
MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING...THE STRONGEST WIND ANOMALIES
SHOULD START TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
BE LESS PROLIFIC BY THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY POPS.
WHILE IT WILL BE COOL AND DAMP...TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO NOT LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.

THE CUT-OFF LOW SHOULD START TO FINALLY PULL AWAY AND OUT TO SEA ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY...WILL CONFINE
HIGHER POPS TO FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND...AS SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
RETURN AFTER AN EXPECTED OVERCAST WORK WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CUT-OFF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...LIKELY CENTERED SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MODELS IN TERMS OF LARGE-SCALE FEATURE
PLACEMENT...BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING QPF
WHICH IS TYPICAL WHEN DEALING WITH CUT-OFF LOWS. 00Z GEFS INDICATING
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OF -3 TO -4 STDEV WITH OUR REGION
DOWNSTREAM OF STRONGEST ANOMALIES. THIS SIGNAL IS USUALLY INDICATIVE
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT
AMOUNTS OR LOCATIONS THAT WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

WHILE THURSDAY WILL STILL BE RATHER GLOOMY WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW ONLY SLOWLY MEANDERING EASTWARD TOWARDS CAPE COD AND A
MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING...THE STRONGEST WIND ANOMALIES
SHOULD START TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
BE LESS PROLIFIC BY THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY POPS.
WHILE IT WILL BE COOL AND DAMP...TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO NOT LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.

THE CUT-OFF LOW SHOULD START TO FINALLY PULL AWAY AND OUT TO SEA ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY...WILL CONFINE
HIGHER POPS TO FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND...AS SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
RETURN AFTER AN EXPECTED OVERCAST WORK WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
ENDING 12Z TUESDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. CIG HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY THROUGH TODAY...AND SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN IN
VFR RANGE AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...SO WILL MENTION VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-8 KTS
BY NOON TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 35 AND
50 PERCENT.

A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT OUR WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY FRIDAY. ALL AREAS
ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL DURING
THIS PERIOD.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 201357
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
957 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...AND INTENSIFY
AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TODAY...WITH A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE EXPIRED. CLOUDS TENDING TO BREAK UP AS THEY
BUILD EAST BUT EVENTUALLY... THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THE CLOUDS
WILL OVERTAKE ALL AREAS. SOME WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING...AND
MIXING POTENTIAL SUPPORTS CURRENT FORECASTED HIGHS. JUST SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPEATURES AND SKY COVER THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DRY PERIOD FOR A LONG TIME AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS MID/HI CLOUDS SPREAD
OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CUT-OFF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...LIKELY CENTERED SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MODELS IN TERMS OF LARGE-SCALE FEATURE
PLACEMENT...BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING QPF
WHICH IS TYPICAL WHEN DEALING WITH CUT-OFF LOWS. 00Z GEFS INDICATING
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OF -3 TO -4 STDEV WITH OUR REGION
DOWNSTREAM OF STRONGEST ANOMALIES. THIS SIGNAL IS USUALLY INDICATIVE
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT
AMOUNTS OR LOCATIONS THAT WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

WHILE THURSDAY WILL STILL BE RATHER GLOOMY WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW ONLY SLOWLY MEANDERING EASTWARD TOWARDS CAPE COD AND A
MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING...THE STRONGEST WIND ANOMALIES
SHOULD START TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
BE LESS PROLIFIC BY THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY POPS.
WHILE IT WILL BE COOL AND DAMP...TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO NOT LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.

THE CUT-OFF LOW SHOULD START TO FINALLY PULL AWAY AND OUT TO SEA ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY...WILL CONFINE
HIGHER POPS TO FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND...AS SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
RETURN AFTER AN EXPECTED OVERCAST WORK WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CUT-OFF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...LIKELY CENTERED SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MODELS IN TERMS OF LARGE-SCALE FEATURE
PLACEMENT...BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING QPF
WHICH IS TYPICAL WHEN DEALING WITH CUT-OFF LOWS. 00Z GEFS INDICATING
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OF -3 TO -4 STDEV WITH OUR REGION
DOWNSTREAM OF STRONGEST ANOMALIES. THIS SIGNAL IS USUALLY INDICATIVE
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT
AMOUNTS OR LOCATIONS THAT WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

WHILE THURSDAY WILL STILL BE RATHER GLOOMY WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW ONLY SLOWLY MEANDERING EASTWARD TOWARDS CAPE COD AND A
MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING...THE STRONGEST WIND ANOMALIES
SHOULD START TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
BE LESS PROLIFIC BY THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY POPS.
WHILE IT WILL BE COOL AND DAMP...TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO NOT LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.

THE CUT-OFF LOW SHOULD START TO FINALLY PULL AWAY AND OUT TO SEA ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY...WILL CONFINE
HIGHER POPS TO FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND...AS SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
RETURN AFTER AN EXPECTED OVERCAST WORK WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
ENDING 12Z TUESDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. CIG HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY THROUGH TODAY...AND SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN IN
VFR RANGE AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...SO WILL MENTION VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-8 KTS
BY NOON TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 35 AND
50 PERCENT.

A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT OUR WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY FRIDAY. ALL AREAS
ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL DURING
THIS PERIOD.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 201357
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
957 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...AND INTENSIFY
AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TODAY...WITH A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE EXPIRED. CLOUDS TENDING TO BREAK UP AS THEY
BUILD EAST BUT EVENTUALLY... THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THE CLOUDS
WILL OVERTAKE ALL AREAS. SOME WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING...AND
MIXING POTENTIAL SUPPORTS CURRENT FORECASTED HIGHS. JUST SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPEATURES AND SKY COVER THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DRY PERIOD FOR A LONG TIME AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS MID/HI CLOUDS SPREAD
OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CUT-OFF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...LIKELY CENTERED SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MODELS IN TERMS OF LARGE-SCALE FEATURE
PLACEMENT...BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING QPF
WHICH IS TYPICAL WHEN DEALING WITH CUT-OFF LOWS. 00Z GEFS INDICATING
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OF -3 TO -4 STDEV WITH OUR REGION
DOWNSTREAM OF STRONGEST ANOMALIES. THIS SIGNAL IS USUALLY INDICATIVE
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT
AMOUNTS OR LOCATIONS THAT WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

WHILE THURSDAY WILL STILL BE RATHER GLOOMY WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW ONLY SLOWLY MEANDERING EASTWARD TOWARDS CAPE COD AND A
MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING...THE STRONGEST WIND ANOMALIES
SHOULD START TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
BE LESS PROLIFIC BY THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY POPS.
WHILE IT WILL BE COOL AND DAMP...TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO NOT LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.

THE CUT-OFF LOW SHOULD START TO FINALLY PULL AWAY AND OUT TO SEA ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY...WILL CONFINE
HIGHER POPS TO FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND...AS SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
RETURN AFTER AN EXPECTED OVERCAST WORK WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CUT-OFF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...LIKELY CENTERED SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MODELS IN TERMS OF LARGE-SCALE FEATURE
PLACEMENT...BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING QPF
WHICH IS TYPICAL WHEN DEALING WITH CUT-OFF LOWS. 00Z GEFS INDICATING
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OF -3 TO -4 STDEV WITH OUR REGION
DOWNSTREAM OF STRONGEST ANOMALIES. THIS SIGNAL IS USUALLY INDICATIVE
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT
AMOUNTS OR LOCATIONS THAT WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

WHILE THURSDAY WILL STILL BE RATHER GLOOMY WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW ONLY SLOWLY MEANDERING EASTWARD TOWARDS CAPE COD AND A
MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING...THE STRONGEST WIND ANOMALIES
SHOULD START TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
BE LESS PROLIFIC BY THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY POPS.
WHILE IT WILL BE COOL AND DAMP...TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO NOT LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.

THE CUT-OFF LOW SHOULD START TO FINALLY PULL AWAY AND OUT TO SEA ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY...WILL CONFINE
HIGHER POPS TO FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND...AS SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
RETURN AFTER AN EXPECTED OVERCAST WORK WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
ENDING 12Z TUESDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. CIG HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY THROUGH TODAY...AND SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN IN
VFR RANGE AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...SO WILL MENTION VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-8 KTS
BY NOON TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 35 AND
50 PERCENT.

A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT OUR WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY FRIDAY. ALL AREAS
ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL DURING
THIS PERIOD.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM








000
FXUS61 KBTV 201130
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
730 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING ABOUT THE ONLY
DRY DAY OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE
TODAY AS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TOWARD LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER LONG ISLAND DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AND SET THE STAGE FOR MORE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT MONDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. EXTENSIVE
AREA OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND THIS
WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. ESSENTIALLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY HOLD OFF
UNTIL TONIGHT...BUT MAY REACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO INTENSIFY TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE BECOMING A MORE
CLOSED CIRCULATION ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION.
DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THUS LOOKING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN
INCH. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
MORE STEADIER PRECIPITATION AS A DEEP EASTERLY FETCH STARTS TO
TAKE SHAPE. OVERALL THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES LITTLE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD ALSO BE IN THE
LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
COUPLE FORECASTS WITH REGARDS TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED WEDS
NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH TOTAL QPF FROM THIS MULTI DAY EVENT
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IN BANK
RISES ON LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS...WITH SOME MINOR LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING POSSIBLE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT
PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TERRAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW.

LATEST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION
NEAR NORFOLK VA ON 00Z THURS...SLOWLY MOVING NORTH ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND BECOMING A VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM
NEAR NYC BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SFC HIGH PRES ACRS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CANADA AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER NYC...WILL
PRODUCE A 3 TO 4 850MB U VECTOR WIND ANOMALY OVER THE NE
CONUS...WITH SPEED VALUES BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS. THIS DEEP AND
MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT PLENTY OF WARM ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.0" BY
THURS OR 1 TO 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BETWEEN 7-9C BY THURS. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH
THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A PROLONG 2 TO 3 DAY RAINFALL
EVENT ACRS OUR AREA. IN ADDITION...GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
850 TO 500MB EASTERLY FLOW...WHILE SFC TO 875MB FLOW IS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AT BTV...RESULTING IN ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ACRS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HELPING TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIFT/QPF. IF POSITION OF LLVL
JET IS FURTHER NORTH...LIKE SOME MODELS PREDICT...ALONG WITH
BETTER RIBBONS OF DEEPER MOISTURE...QPF WOULD BE MUCH LESS ACRS OUR
AREA. WILL CONT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF...AND
FOLLOW HPC QPF GUIDANCE CLOSELY. THIS SUGGESTS A WIDESPREAD 1 TO
3 INCH EVENT...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACRS THE SLV/WESTERN
DACKS...AND NEK/PARTS OF THE LWR CT RIVER VALLEY FROM EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPE...AND SOME HIGHER VALUES IN THE FAVORABLE EASTERLY
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE CENTRAL VT MTNS AND EASTERN DACKS. THE
STEADIER/HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY...WITH
LIGHT MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A DRIER PATTERN WITH
BUILDING HGHTS RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

GIVEN NORTHERLY SFC FLOW AND LOTS OF CLOUDS/PRECIP...EXPECT VERY
LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPS FROM WEDS NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE U30S TO
MID 40S. GIVEN MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING PROFILES...LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN THE VALLEYS AND MTNS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY GIVEN THE WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...THE
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS VERY LIMITED AND CONFINED TO
THE HIGHEST SUMMITS OF THE DACKS ABOVE 4500 FT...VERY EARLY ON
TUES. TEMPS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LVLS BY SAT/SUNDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE 40S/50S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S/40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...CLOUDS ARE ALREADY APPROACHING THE
SLV/NORTHERN NY THIS MORNING WITH CRNT OBS SHOWING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ATTM. CIGS AT SLK HAVE DROPPED TO MVFR WITH SOUTHWEST UPSLOPE AND
WEAK LAKE ONTARIO MOISTURE INTERACTION. WL USE A TEMPO GROUP TO
COVER THIS MVFR CIG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING. NEXT SYSTEM WL START TO
IMPACT OUR BWTN 02-06Z...WITH LOWERING CIGS AND INCREASING CHCS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH EXCEPTION OF
MVFR CIGS AT MSS/MPV AFT 04Z. WINDS WL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4
TO 8 KNOTS...BECOMING NORTHEAST AT MSS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WX WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACRS OUR TAF SITES TUES THRU FRIDAY. DEVELOPING MVFR CIGS
WILL BECOME IFR...ESPECIALLY AT PBG/BTV AND MPV BY WEDS...WITH
MVFR VIS BETWEEN 3-5SM IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF IFR CONDITIONS IS LIKELY THIS WEEK...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV/MSS/PBG. SOME AREAS OF TURBULENCE
IS POSSIBLE WEDS INTO THURS AS RIDGE TOP JET INCREASES AT 35 TO 45
KNOTS FROM THE EAST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER







000
FXUS61 KBTV 201130
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
730 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING ABOUT THE ONLY
DRY DAY OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE
TODAY AS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TOWARD LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER LONG ISLAND DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AND SET THE STAGE FOR MORE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT MONDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. EXTENSIVE
AREA OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND THIS
WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. ESSENTIALLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY HOLD OFF
UNTIL TONIGHT...BUT MAY REACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO INTENSIFY TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE BECOMING A MORE
CLOSED CIRCULATION ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION.
DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THUS LOOKING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN
INCH. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
MORE STEADIER PRECIPITATION AS A DEEP EASTERLY FETCH STARTS TO
TAKE SHAPE. OVERALL THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES LITTLE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD ALSO BE IN THE
LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
COUPLE FORECASTS WITH REGARDS TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED WEDS
NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH TOTAL QPF FROM THIS MULTI DAY EVENT
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IN BANK
RISES ON LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS...WITH SOME MINOR LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING POSSIBLE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT
PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TERRAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW.

LATEST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION
NEAR NORFOLK VA ON 00Z THURS...SLOWLY MOVING NORTH ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND BECOMING A VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM
NEAR NYC BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SFC HIGH PRES ACRS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CANADA AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER NYC...WILL
PRODUCE A 3 TO 4 850MB U VECTOR WIND ANOMALY OVER THE NE
CONUS...WITH SPEED VALUES BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS. THIS DEEP AND
MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT PLENTY OF WARM ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.0" BY
THURS OR 1 TO 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BETWEEN 7-9C BY THURS. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH
THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A PROLONG 2 TO 3 DAY RAINFALL
EVENT ACRS OUR AREA. IN ADDITION...GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
850 TO 500MB EASTERLY FLOW...WHILE SFC TO 875MB FLOW IS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AT BTV...RESULTING IN ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ACRS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HELPING TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIFT/QPF. IF POSITION OF LLVL
JET IS FURTHER NORTH...LIKE SOME MODELS PREDICT...ALONG WITH
BETTER RIBBONS OF DEEPER MOISTURE...QPF WOULD BE MUCH LESS ACRS OUR
AREA. WILL CONT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF...AND
FOLLOW HPC QPF GUIDANCE CLOSELY. THIS SUGGESTS A WIDESPREAD 1 TO
3 INCH EVENT...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACRS THE SLV/WESTERN
DACKS...AND NEK/PARTS OF THE LWR CT RIVER VALLEY FROM EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPE...AND SOME HIGHER VALUES IN THE FAVORABLE EASTERLY
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE CENTRAL VT MTNS AND EASTERN DACKS. THE
STEADIER/HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY...WITH
LIGHT MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A DRIER PATTERN WITH
BUILDING HGHTS RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

GIVEN NORTHERLY SFC FLOW AND LOTS OF CLOUDS/PRECIP...EXPECT VERY
LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPS FROM WEDS NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE U30S TO
MID 40S. GIVEN MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING PROFILES...LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN THE VALLEYS AND MTNS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY GIVEN THE WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...THE
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS VERY LIMITED AND CONFINED TO
THE HIGHEST SUMMITS OF THE DACKS ABOVE 4500 FT...VERY EARLY ON
TUES. TEMPS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LVLS BY SAT/SUNDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE 40S/50S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S/40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...CLOUDS ARE ALREADY APPROACHING THE
SLV/NORTHERN NY THIS MORNING WITH CRNT OBS SHOWING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ATTM. CIGS AT SLK HAVE DROPPED TO MVFR WITH SOUTHWEST UPSLOPE AND
WEAK LAKE ONTARIO MOISTURE INTERACTION. WL USE A TEMPO GROUP TO
COVER THIS MVFR CIG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING. NEXT SYSTEM WL START TO
IMPACT OUR BWTN 02-06Z...WITH LOWERING CIGS AND INCREASING CHCS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH EXCEPTION OF
MVFR CIGS AT MSS/MPV AFT 04Z. WINDS WL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4
TO 8 KNOTS...BECOMING NORTHEAST AT MSS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WX WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACRS OUR TAF SITES TUES THRU FRIDAY. DEVELOPING MVFR CIGS
WILL BECOME IFR...ESPECIALLY AT PBG/BTV AND MPV BY WEDS...WITH
MVFR VIS BETWEEN 3-5SM IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF IFR CONDITIONS IS LIKELY THIS WEEK...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV/MSS/PBG. SOME AREAS OF TURBULENCE
IS POSSIBLE WEDS INTO THURS AS RIDGE TOP JET INCREASES AT 35 TO 45
KNOTS FROM THE EAST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 201128
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
728 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING ABOUT THE ONLY
DRY DAY OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE
TODAY AS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TOWARD LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER LONG ISLAND DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AND SET THE STAGE FOR MORE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DIFFICULT TO ERODE
EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT AND AREAS
THAT WERE RELATIVELY CLEAR...WILL NOT STAY CLEAR FOR LONG AS AN
EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUD COVER IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE CLOUDS WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. ESSENTIALLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S. PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO INTENSIFY TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE BECOMING A MORE
CLOSED CIRCULATION ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION.
DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THUS LOOKING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN
INCH. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
MORE STEADIER PRECIPITATION AS A DEEP EASTERLY FETCH STARTS TO
TAKE SHAPE. OVERALL THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES LITTLE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD ALSO BE IN THE
LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
COUPLE FORECASTS WITH REGARDS TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED WEDS
NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH TOTAL QPF FROM THIS MULTI DAY EVENT
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IN BANK
RISES ON LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS...WITH SOME MINOR LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING POSSIBLE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT
PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TERRAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW.

LATEST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION
NEAR NORFOLK VA ON 00Z THURS...SLOWLY MOVING NORTH ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND BECOMING A VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM
NEAR NYC BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SFC HIGH PRES ACRS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CANADA AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER NYC...WILL
PRODUCE A 3 TO 4 850MB U VECTOR WIND ANOMALY OVER THE NE
CONUS...WITH SPEED VALUES BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS. THIS DEEP AND
MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT PLENTY OF WARM ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.0" BY
THURS OR 1 TO 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BETWEEN 7-9C BY THURS. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH
THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A PROLONG 2 TO 3 DAY RAINFALL
EVENT ACRS OUR AREA. IN ADDITION...GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
850 TO 500MB EASTERLY FLOW...WHILE SFC TO 875MB FLOW IS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AT BTV...RESULTING IN ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ACRS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HELPING TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIFT/QPF. IF POSITION OF LLVL
JET IS FURTHER NORTH...LIKE SOME MODELS PREDICT...ALONG WITH
BETTER RIBBONS OF DEEPER MOISTURE...QPF WOULD BE MUCH LESS ACRS OUR
AREA. WILL CONT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF...AND
FOLLOW HPC QPF GUIDANCE CLOSELY. THIS SUGGESTS A WIDESPREAD 1 TO
3 INCH EVENT...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACRS THE SLV/WESTERN
DACKS...AND NEK/PARTS OF THE LWR CT RIVER VALLEY FROM EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPE...AND SOME HIGHER VALUES IN THE FAVORABLE EASTERLY
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE CENTRAL VT MTNS AND EASTERN DACKS. THE
STEADIER/HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY...WITH
LIGHT MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A DRIER PATTERN WITH
BUILDING HGHTS RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

GIVEN NORTHERLY SFC FLOW AND LOTS OF CLOUDS/PRECIP...EXPECT VERY
LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPS FROM WEDS NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE U30S TO
MID 40S. GIVEN MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING PROFILES...LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN THE VALLEYS AND MTNS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY GIVEN THE WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...THE
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS VERY LIMITED AND CONFINED TO
THE HIGHEST SUMMITS OF THE DACKS ABOVE 4500 FT...VERY EARLY ON
TUES. TEMPS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LVLS BY SAT/SUNDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE 40S/50S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S/40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...CLOUDS ARE ALREADY APPROACHING THE
SLV/NORTHERN NY THIS MORNING WITH CRNT OBS SHOWING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ATTM. CIGS AT SLK HAVE DROPPED TO MVFR WITH SOUTHWEST UPSLOPE AND
WEAK LAKE ONTARIO MOISTURE INTERACTION. WL USE A TEMPO GROUP TO
COVER THIS MVFR CIG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING. NEXT SYSTEM WL START TO
IMPACT OUR BWTN 02-06Z...WITH LOWERING CIGS AND INCREASING CHCS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH EXCEPTION OF
MVFR CIGS AT MSS/MPV AFT 04Z. WINDS WL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4
TO 8 KNOTS...BECOMING NORTHEAST AT MSS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WX WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACRS OUR TAF SITES TUES THRU FRIDAY. DEVELOPING MVFR CIGS
WILL BECOME IFR...ESPECIALLY AT PBG/BTV AND MPV BY WEDS...WITH
MVFR VIS BETWEEN 3-5SM IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF IFR CONDITIONS IS LIKELY THIS WEEK...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV/MSS/PBG. SOME AREAS OF TURBULENCE
IS POSSIBLE WEDS INTO THURS AS RIDGE TOP JET INCREASES AT 35 TO 45
KNOTS FROM THE EAST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER









000
FXUS61 KBTV 201128
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
728 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING ABOUT THE ONLY
DRY DAY OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE
TODAY AS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TOWARD LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER LONG ISLAND DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AND SET THE STAGE FOR MORE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT MONDAY...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DIFFICULT TO ERODE
EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT AND AREAS
THAT WERE RELATIVELY CLEAR...WILL NOT STAY CLEAR FOR LONG AS AN
EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUD COVER IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE CLOUDS WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. ESSENTIALLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S. PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO INTENSIFY TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE BECOMING A MORE
CLOSED CIRCULATION ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION.
DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THUS LOOKING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN
INCH. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
MORE STEADIER PRECIPITATION AS A DEEP EASTERLY FETCH STARTS TO
TAKE SHAPE. OVERALL THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES LITTLE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD ALSO BE IN THE
LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
COUPLE FORECASTS WITH REGARDS TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED WEDS
NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH TOTAL QPF FROM THIS MULTI DAY EVENT
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IN BANK
RISES ON LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS...WITH SOME MINOR LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING POSSIBLE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT
PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TERRAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW.

LATEST GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION
NEAR NORFOLK VA ON 00Z THURS...SLOWLY MOVING NORTH ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND BECOMING A VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM
NEAR NYC BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SFC HIGH PRES ACRS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CANADA AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER NYC...WILL
PRODUCE A 3 TO 4 850MB U VECTOR WIND ANOMALY OVER THE NE
CONUS...WITH SPEED VALUES BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS. THIS DEEP AND
MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT PLENTY OF WARM ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA...WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.0" BY
THURS OR 1 TO 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARM BETWEEN 7-9C BY THURS. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH
THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A PROLONG 2 TO 3 DAY RAINFALL
EVENT ACRS OUR AREA. IN ADDITION...GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
850 TO 500MB EASTERLY FLOW...WHILE SFC TO 875MB FLOW IS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AT BTV...RESULTING IN ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ACRS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...HELPING TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIFT/QPF. IF POSITION OF LLVL
JET IS FURTHER NORTH...LIKE SOME MODELS PREDICT...ALONG WITH
BETTER RIBBONS OF DEEPER MOISTURE...QPF WOULD BE MUCH LESS ACRS OUR
AREA. WILL CONT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF...AND
FOLLOW HPC QPF GUIDANCE CLOSELY. THIS SUGGESTS A WIDESPREAD 1 TO
3 INCH EVENT...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACRS THE SLV/WESTERN
DACKS...AND NEK/PARTS OF THE LWR CT RIVER VALLEY FROM EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPE...AND SOME HIGHER VALUES IN THE FAVORABLE EASTERLY
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE CENTRAL VT MTNS AND EASTERN DACKS. THE
STEADIER/HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY...WITH
LIGHT MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A DRIER PATTERN WITH
BUILDING HGHTS RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

GIVEN NORTHERLY SFC FLOW AND LOTS OF CLOUDS/PRECIP...EXPECT VERY
LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPS FROM WEDS NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO L50S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE U30S TO
MID 40S. GIVEN MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING PROFILES...LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN THE VALLEYS AND MTNS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY GIVEN THE WARMING THERMAL PROFILES...THE
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS VERY LIMITED AND CONFINED TO
THE HIGHEST SUMMITS OF THE DACKS ABOVE 4500 FT...VERY EARLY ON
TUES. TEMPS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LVLS BY SAT/SUNDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE 40S/50S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S/40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...CLOUDS ARE ALREADY APPROACHING THE
SLV/NORTHERN NY THIS MORNING WITH CRNT OBS SHOWING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ATTM. CIGS AT SLK HAVE DROPPED TO MVFR WITH SOUTHWEST UPSLOPE AND
WEAK LAKE ONTARIO MOISTURE INTERACTION. WL USE A TEMPO GROUP TO
COVER THIS MVFR CIG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING. NEXT SYSTEM WL START TO
IMPACT OUR BWTN 02-06Z...WITH LOWERING CIGS AND INCREASING CHCS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH EXCEPTION OF
MVFR CIGS AT MSS/MPV AFT 04Z. WINDS WL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4
TO 8 KNOTS...BECOMING NORTHEAST AT MSS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WX WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ACRS OUR TAF SITES TUES THRU FRIDAY. DEVELOPING MVFR CIGS
WILL BECOME IFR...ESPECIALLY AT PBG/BTV AND MPV BY WEDS...WITH
MVFR VIS BETWEEN 3-5SM IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF IFR CONDITIONS IS LIKELY THIS WEEK...WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS AT BTV/MSS/PBG. SOME AREAS OF TURBULENCE
IS POSSIBLE WEDS INTO THURS AS RIDGE TOP JET INCREASES AT 35 TO 45
KNOTS FROM THE EAST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER










000
FXUS61 KALY 201049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
649 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...AND INTENSIFY
AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TODAY...WITH A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 545 AM EDT...STLT PICS INDICATED PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SURFACE
OBS SHOW TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE FREEZE WARNING AREA GENERALLY IN THE
20S TO AROUND 30. IN THE FREEZE WARNING AREA TEMPS WERE IN THE LOW
30S.

TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DRY PERIOD FOR A LONG TIME AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS MID/HI CLOUDS SPREAD
OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CUT-OFF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...LIKELY CENTERED SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MODELS IN TERMS OF LARGE-SCALE FEATURE
PLACEMENT...BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING QPF
WHICH IS TYPICAL WHEN DEALING WITH CUT-OFF LOWS. 00Z GEFS INDICATING
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OF -3 TO -4 STDEV WITH OUR REGION
DOWNSTREAM OF STRONGEST ANOMALIES. THIS SIGNAL IS USUALLY INDICATIVE
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT
AMOUNTS OR LOCATIONS THAT WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

WHILE THURSDAY WILL STILL BE RATHER GLOOMY WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW ONLY SLOWLY MEANDERING EASTWARD TOWARDS CAPE COD AND A
MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING...THE STRONGEST WIND ANOMALIES
SHOULD START TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
BE LESS PROLIFIC BY THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY POPS.
WHILE IT WILL BE COOL AND DAMP...TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO NOT LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.

THE CUT-OFF LOW SHOULD START TO FINALLY PULL AWAY AND OUT TO SEA ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY...WILL CONFINE
HIGHER POPS TO FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND...AS SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
RETURN AFTER AN EXPECTED OVERCAST WORK WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CUT-OFF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...LIKELY CENTERED SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MODELS IN TERMS OF LARGE-SCALE FEATURE
PLACEMENT...BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING QPF
WHICH IS TYPICAL WHEN DEALING WITH CUT-OFF LOWS. 00Z GEFS INDICATING
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OF -3 TO -4 STDEV WITH OUR REGION
DOWNSTREAM OF STRONGEST ANOMALIES. THIS SIGNAL IS USUALLY INDICATIVE
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT
AMOUNTS OR LOCATIONS THAT WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

WHILE THURSDAY WILL STILL BE RATHER GLOOMY WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW ONLY SLOWLY MEANDERING EASTWARD TOWARDS CAPE COD AND A
MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING...THE STRONGEST WIND ANOMALIES
SHOULD START TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
BE LESS PROLIFIC BY THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY POPS.
WHILE IT WILL BE COOL AND DAMP...TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO NOT LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.

THE CUT-OFF LOW SHOULD START TO FINALLY PULL AWAY AND OUT TO SEA ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY...WILL CONFINE
HIGHER POPS TO FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND...AS SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
RETURN AFTER AN EXPECTED OVERCAST WORK WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
ENDING 12Z TUESDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. CIG HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY THROUGH TODAY...AND SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN IN
VFR RANGE AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...SO WILL MENTION VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-8 KTS
BY NOON TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 35 AND
50 PERCENT.

A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT OUR WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY FRIDAY. ALL AREAS
ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL DURING
THIS PERIOD.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 201049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
649 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...AND INTENSIFY
AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TODAY...WITH A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 545 AM EDT...STLT PICS INDICATED PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SURFACE
OBS SHOW TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE FREEZE WARNING AREA GENERALLY IN THE
20S TO AROUND 30. IN THE FREEZE WARNING AREA TEMPS WERE IN THE LOW
30S.

TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DRY PERIOD FOR A LONG TIME AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS MID/HI CLOUDS SPREAD
OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CUT-OFF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...LIKELY CENTERED SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MODELS IN TERMS OF LARGE-SCALE FEATURE
PLACEMENT...BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING QPF
WHICH IS TYPICAL WHEN DEALING WITH CUT-OFF LOWS. 00Z GEFS INDICATING
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OF -3 TO -4 STDEV WITH OUR REGION
DOWNSTREAM OF STRONGEST ANOMALIES. THIS SIGNAL IS USUALLY INDICATIVE
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT
AMOUNTS OR LOCATIONS THAT WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

WHILE THURSDAY WILL STILL BE RATHER GLOOMY WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW ONLY SLOWLY MEANDERING EASTWARD TOWARDS CAPE COD AND A
MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING...THE STRONGEST WIND ANOMALIES
SHOULD START TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
BE LESS PROLIFIC BY THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY POPS.
WHILE IT WILL BE COOL AND DAMP...TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO NOT LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.

THE CUT-OFF LOW SHOULD START TO FINALLY PULL AWAY AND OUT TO SEA ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY...WILL CONFINE
HIGHER POPS TO FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND...AS SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
RETURN AFTER AN EXPECTED OVERCAST WORK WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CUT-OFF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...LIKELY CENTERED SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MODELS IN TERMS OF LARGE-SCALE FEATURE
PLACEMENT...BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING QPF
WHICH IS TYPICAL WHEN DEALING WITH CUT-OFF LOWS. 00Z GEFS INDICATING
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OF -3 TO -4 STDEV WITH OUR REGION
DOWNSTREAM OF STRONGEST ANOMALIES. THIS SIGNAL IS USUALLY INDICATIVE
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT
AMOUNTS OR LOCATIONS THAT WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

WHILE THURSDAY WILL STILL BE RATHER GLOOMY WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW ONLY SLOWLY MEANDERING EASTWARD TOWARDS CAPE COD AND A
MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING...THE STRONGEST WIND ANOMALIES
SHOULD START TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
BE LESS PROLIFIC BY THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY POPS.
WHILE IT WILL BE COOL AND DAMP...TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO NOT LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.

THE CUT-OFF LOW SHOULD START TO FINALLY PULL AWAY AND OUT TO SEA ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY...WILL CONFINE
HIGHER POPS TO FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND...AS SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
RETURN AFTER AN EXPECTED OVERCAST WORK WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
ENDING 12Z TUESDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. CIG HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY THROUGH TODAY...AND SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN IN
VFR RANGE AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...SO WILL MENTION VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-8 KTS
BY NOON TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 35 AND
50 PERCENT.

A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT OUR WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY FRIDAY. ALL AREAS
ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL DURING
THIS PERIOD.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 200947
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
547 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...AND INTENSIFY
AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TODAY...WITH A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 545 AM EDT...STLT PICS INDICATED PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SURFACE
OBS SHOW TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE FREEZE WARNING AREA GENERALLY IN THE
20S TO AROUND 30. IN THE FREEZE WARNING AREA TEMPS WERE IN THE LOW
30S.

TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DRY PERIOD FOR A LONG TIME AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS MID/HI CLOUDS SPREAD
OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY /...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN DEVELOP INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY AFTN AND EVE. ON WEDNESDAY THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST. THIS WILL BRING A LONG
PERIOD OF WET WEATHER TO THE REGION...POSSIBLY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

POPS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT TO LIKELY LEVELS OVER
WESTERN AREAS...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE CHANCE LEVELS OVER EASTERN
AREAS. ON TUESDAY THE POPS WILL RISE TO LIKELY LEVELS IN ALL AREAS
AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE TO HYDRO
PROBLEMS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S AND 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CUT-OFF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...LIKELY CENTERED SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MODELS IN TERMS OF LARGE-SCALE FEATURE
PLACEMENT...BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING QPF
WHICH IS TYPICAL WHEN DEALING WITH CUT-OFF LOWS. 00Z GEFS INDICATING
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OF -3 TO -4 STDEV WITH OUR REGION
DOWNSTREAM OF STRONGEST ANOMALIES. THIS SIGNAL IS USUALLY INDICATIVE
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT
AMOUNTS OR LOCATIONS THAT WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

WHILE THURSDAY WILL STILL BE RATHER GLOOMY WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW ONLY SLOWLY MEANDERING EASTWARD TOWARDS CAPE COD AND A
MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING...THE STRONGEST WIND ANOMALIES
SHOULD START TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
BE LESS PROLIFIC BY THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY POPS.
WHILE IT WILL BE COOL AND DAMP...TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO NOT LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.

THE CUT-OFF LOW SHOULD START TO FINALLY PULL AWAY AND OUT TO SEA ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY...WILL CONFINE
HIGHER POPS TO FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND...AS SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
RETURN AFTER AN EXPECTED OVERCAST WORK WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
ENDING 06Z TUESDAY. PATCHY STRATOCU DECK IN 3500-5000 FT AGL RANGE
WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY DAWN...ALTHOUGH MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-8 KTS
BY NOON TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 35 AND
50 PERCENT.

A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT OUR WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY FRIDAY. ALL AREAS
ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL DURING
THIS PERIOD.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 200947
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
547 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...AND INTENSIFY
AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TODAY...WITH A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 545 AM EDT...STLT PICS INDICATED PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SURFACE
OBS SHOW TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE FREEZE WARNING AREA GENERALLY IN THE
20S TO AROUND 30. IN THE FREEZE WARNING AREA TEMPS WERE IN THE LOW
30S.

TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DRY PERIOD FOR A LONG TIME AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS MID/HI CLOUDS SPREAD
OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY /...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN DEVELOP INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY AFTN AND EVE. ON WEDNESDAY THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST. THIS WILL BRING A LONG
PERIOD OF WET WEATHER TO THE REGION...POSSIBLY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

POPS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT TO LIKELY LEVELS OVER
WESTERN AREAS...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE CHANCE LEVELS OVER EASTERN
AREAS. ON TUESDAY THE POPS WILL RISE TO LIKELY LEVELS IN ALL AREAS
AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE TO HYDRO
PROBLEMS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S AND 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CUT-OFF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...LIKELY CENTERED SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MODELS IN TERMS OF LARGE-SCALE FEATURE
PLACEMENT...BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING QPF
WHICH IS TYPICAL WHEN DEALING WITH CUT-OFF LOWS. 00Z GEFS INDICATING
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OF -3 TO -4 STDEV WITH OUR REGION
DOWNSTREAM OF STRONGEST ANOMALIES. THIS SIGNAL IS USUALLY INDICATIVE
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT
AMOUNTS OR LOCATIONS THAT WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

WHILE THURSDAY WILL STILL BE RATHER GLOOMY WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW ONLY SLOWLY MEANDERING EASTWARD TOWARDS CAPE COD AND A
MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING...THE STRONGEST WIND ANOMALIES
SHOULD START TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
BE LESS PROLIFIC BY THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY POPS.
WHILE IT WILL BE COOL AND DAMP...TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO NOT LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.

THE CUT-OFF LOW SHOULD START TO FINALLY PULL AWAY AND OUT TO SEA ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY...WILL CONFINE
HIGHER POPS TO FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND...AS SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
RETURN AFTER AN EXPECTED OVERCAST WORK WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
ENDING 06Z TUESDAY. PATCHY STRATOCU DECK IN 3500-5000 FT AGL RANGE
WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY DAWN...ALTHOUGH MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-8 KTS
BY NOON TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 35 AND
50 PERCENT.

A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT OUR WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY FRIDAY. ALL AREAS
ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL DURING
THIS PERIOD.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM








000
FXUS61 KALY 200834
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
435 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...AND INTENSIFY
AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TODAY...WITH A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...STLT PICS INDICATED PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SURFACE
OBS SHOW TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE FREEZE WARNING AREA GENERALLY IN THE
20S TO LOWER 30S. IN THE FREEZE WARNING AREA TEMPS WERE IN THE LOW
OR MID 30S.

TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DRY PERIOD FOR A LONG TIME AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS MID/HI CLOUDS SPREAD
OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY /...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN DEVELOP INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY AFTN AND EVE. ON WEDNESDAY THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST. THIS WILL BRING A LONG
PERIOD OF WET WEATHER TO THE REGION...POSSIBLY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

POPS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT TO LIKELY LEVELS OVER
WESTERN AREAS...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE CHANCE LEVELS OVER EASTERN
AREAS. ON TUESDAY THE POPS WILL RISE TO LIKELY LEVELS IN ALL AREAS
AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE TO HYDRO
PROBLEMS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S AND 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CUT-OFF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...LIKELY CENTERED SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MODELS IN TERMS OF LARGE-SCALE FEATURE
PLACEMENT...BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING QPF
WHICH IS TYPICAL WHEN DEALING WITH CUT-OFF LOWS. 00Z GEFS INDICATING
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OF -3 TO -4 STDEV WITH OUR REGION
DOWNSTREAM OF STRONGEST ANOMALIES. THIS SIGNAL IS USUALLY INDICATIVE
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT
AMOUNTS OR LOCATIONS THAT WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

WHILE THURSDAY WILL STILL BE RATHER GLOOMY WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW ONLY SLOWLY MEANDERING EASTWARD TOWARDS CAPE COD AND A
MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING...THE STRONGEST WIND ANOMALIES
SHOULD START TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
BE LESS PROLIFIC BY THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY POPS.
WHILE IT WILL BE COOL AND DAMP...TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO NOT LOOK COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.

THE CUT-OFF LOW SHOULD START TO FINALLY PULL AWAY AND OUT TO SEA ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY A SPRAWLING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY...WILL CONFINE
HIGHER POPS TO FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND...AS SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
RETURN AFTER AN EXPECTED OVERCAST WORK WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD
ENDING 06Z TUESDAY. PATCHY STRATOCU DECK IN 3500-5000 FT AGL RANGE
WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY DAWN...ALTHOUGH MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-8 KTS
BY NOON TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 35 AND
50 PERCENT.

A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT OUR WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY FRIDAY. ALL AREAS
ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL DURING
THIS PERIOD.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 200834
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
435 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...AND INTENSIFY
AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TODAY...WITH A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...STLT PICS INDICATED PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SURFACE
OBS SHOW TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE FREEZE WARNING AREA GENERALLY IN THE
20S TO LOWER 30S. IN THE FREEZE WARNING AREA TEMPS WERE IN THE LOW
OR MID 30S.

TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DRY PERIOD FOR A LONG TIME AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY SUNNY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS MID/HI CLOUDS SPREAD
OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY /...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN DEVELOP INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY AFTN AND EVE. ON WEDNESDAY THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST. THIS WILL BRING A LONG
PERIOD OF WET WEATHER TO THE REGION...POSSIBLY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

POPS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT TO LIKELY LEVELS OVER
WESTERN AREAS...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE CHANCE LEVELS OVER EASTERN
AREAS. ON TUESDAY THE POPS WILL RISE TO LIKELY LEVELS IN ALL AREAS
AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE TO HYDRO
PROBLEMS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S AND 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CUT-OFF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...LIKELY CENTERED SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MODELS IN TERMS OF LARGE-SCALE FEATURE
PLACEMENT...BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING QPF
WHICH IS TYPICAL WHEN DEALING WITH CUT-OFF LOWS. 00Z GEFS INDICATING
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OF -3 TO -4 STDEV WITH OUR REGION
DOWNSTREAM OF STRONGEST ANOMALIES. THIS SIGNAL IS USUALLY INDICATIVE
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT
AMOUNTS OR LOCATIONS T