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000
FXUS61 KBTV 221735
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
135 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE. BEHIND THE FRONT...A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT TUESDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING CUMULUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE... SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WX CONTINUES TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST AND OFFSHORE...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR
WEST MAY TEND TO SPREAD SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES LATER AT NIGHT...BUT OUTSIDE A STRAY SLV SHOWER
TOWARD SUNRISE WE`LL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. LOWS CONTINUE MILD
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOCALLY NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

BRIEF...THOUGH ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN DEVELOPS DURING
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
MAKES STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA. DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILES
AND AMPLE PBL INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.
PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND MORNING SHOWERS MAY LIMIT THREAT ACROSS THE
SLV AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT SUCH SUBTLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WILL BE ALLOWED TO PLAY OUT AND HAVE MENTIONED THIS
THREAT IN ALL AREAS FOR NOW...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT TO SPC SWODY2.
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS (PWATS TO NEAR 2") APPEAR TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL A LESSER CONCERN GIVEN DEEPER WCD
VALUES AND WBZ HEIGHTS ABOVE 11 KFT. CONVECTIVE MODE WOULD BE LINEAR
WITH POSSBL QLCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH THE PBL. ALSO CAN`T
RULE OUT LOCALIZED HYDRO CONCERNS GIVEN THE WCD DEPTHS AND HIGH PWAT
VALUES...BUT WIND FIELDS APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY MOVING ALONG AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDS MOST WATERSHEDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THINGS OK.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SFC FRONT CLEARS EAST AND SOUTH WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ENDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN VT COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT OR
SO AND SKIES GRADUALLY TRENDING PC/CLR ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
LOWS A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE...MAINLY 50S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST/SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT UNDER BASE OF MEAN ERN
CANADA UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH. UPWARD MOISTURE FLUXES FROM PRIOR
EVENING`S RAINFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG JULY SUN SHOULD LEAD TO
DECENT COVERAGE OF FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...ALL AND ALL A VERY NICE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES AS HIGHS RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 00Z
GUIDANCE SUITE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND. THEREAFTER DETAIL DIFFERENCES EMERGE BETWEEN 00Z
GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF IN THE EVOLUTION AND
ULTIMATE RETROGRESSION OF A NORTHEASTERN NOAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH FOR
LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SOURCE OF THOSE DIFFERENCES
STEMS FROM HOW QUICKLY TO PHASE A SHEARING-OUT SHORTWAVE ENTERING
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH. OVERALL
PATTERN FAVORS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH CLOUDY/OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS AND THUNDER - BUT NOTHING THAT
SEEMS TOO SIGNIFICANT. DESPITE PREVAILING CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...TEMPS WILL TEND TO RUN AROUND NORMAL.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD
PROMOTE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT IN THE PERIOD (MID 40S TO VALLEY MID 50S). I DIDN`T
INTRODUCE INTO THE FORECAST YET BUT RIVER VALLEY FOG LOOKS TO BE A
GOOD POSSIBILITY THURS NIGHT AS WELL GIVEN WET SOIL CONDITIONS FROM
EXPECTED RAINFALL WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MORE FOCUSED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE ISN`T MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT COULDN`T
REALLY DISCOUNT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PIVOTS NORTHEAST WITH NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES. THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS
GRADUALLY INCREASING TO HIGH-CHANCE TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH RETROGRADES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...LEAVING THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNSETTLED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS FOR SATURDAY
INTO TUESDAY PRETTY SIMILAR...HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH WEATHER BECOMING MORE ACTIVE
TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. SCT-BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE TO SKC AFTER 00-02Z
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SKC WILL RULE OVERNIGHT...BUT
DON`T EXPECT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK
INCREASE TO 10-20KTS. AT THE SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...STRONGEST IN THE VALLEYS. AFTER 12Z...COLD FRONT
SHIFTS TOWARDS THE REGION WITH TSRA POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z AT
KMSS...PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR WITH BRIEF PERIOD MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. STORMS COULD BE STRONG...CAPABLE
OF TURBULENCE AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LIMITED RISK OF SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 12Z THU...MOST TAFS VFR. HOWEVER...POSSIBLE IFR OR LOWER
VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT SLK AND POSSIBLY MPV PENDING CLEARING.

12Z THU - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK POSSIBLE.
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LAHIFF








000
FXUS61 KBTV 221735
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
135 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE. BEHIND THE FRONT...A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT TUESDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING CUMULUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE... SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WX CONTINUES TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST AND OFFSHORE...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR
WEST MAY TEND TO SPREAD SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES LATER AT NIGHT...BUT OUTSIDE A STRAY SLV SHOWER
TOWARD SUNRISE WE`LL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. LOWS CONTINUE MILD
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOCALLY NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

BRIEF...THOUGH ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN DEVELOPS DURING
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
MAKES STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA. DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILES
AND AMPLE PBL INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.
PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND MORNING SHOWERS MAY LIMIT THREAT ACROSS THE
SLV AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT SUCH SUBTLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WILL BE ALLOWED TO PLAY OUT AND HAVE MENTIONED THIS
THREAT IN ALL AREAS FOR NOW...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT TO SPC SWODY2.
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS (PWATS TO NEAR 2") APPEAR TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL A LESSER CONCERN GIVEN DEEPER WCD
VALUES AND WBZ HEIGHTS ABOVE 11 KFT. CONVECTIVE MODE WOULD BE LINEAR
WITH POSSBL QLCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH THE PBL. ALSO CAN`T
RULE OUT LOCALIZED HYDRO CONCERNS GIVEN THE WCD DEPTHS AND HIGH PWAT
VALUES...BUT WIND FIELDS APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY MOVING ALONG AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDS MOST WATERSHEDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THINGS OK.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SFC FRONT CLEARS EAST AND SOUTH WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ENDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN VT COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT OR
SO AND SKIES GRADUALLY TRENDING PC/CLR ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
LOWS A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE...MAINLY 50S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST/SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT UNDER BASE OF MEAN ERN
CANADA UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH. UPWARD MOISTURE FLUXES FROM PRIOR
EVENING`S RAINFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG JULY SUN SHOULD LEAD TO
DECENT COVERAGE OF FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...ALL AND ALL A VERY NICE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES AS HIGHS RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 00Z
GUIDANCE SUITE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND. THEREAFTER DETAIL DIFFERENCES EMERGE BETWEEN 00Z
GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF IN THE EVOLUTION AND
ULTIMATE RETROGRESSION OF A NORTHEASTERN NOAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH FOR
LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SOURCE OF THOSE DIFFERENCES
STEMS FROM HOW QUICKLY TO PHASE A SHEARING-OUT SHORTWAVE ENTERING
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH. OVERALL
PATTERN FAVORS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH CLOUDY/OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS AND THUNDER - BUT NOTHING THAT
SEEMS TOO SIGNIFICANT. DESPITE PREVAILING CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...TEMPS WILL TEND TO RUN AROUND NORMAL.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD
PROMOTE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT IN THE PERIOD (MID 40S TO VALLEY MID 50S). I DIDN`T
INTRODUCE INTO THE FORECAST YET BUT RIVER VALLEY FOG LOOKS TO BE A
GOOD POSSIBILITY THURS NIGHT AS WELL GIVEN WET SOIL CONDITIONS FROM
EXPECTED RAINFALL WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MORE FOCUSED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE ISN`T MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT COULDN`T
REALLY DISCOUNT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PIVOTS NORTHEAST WITH NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES. THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS
GRADUALLY INCREASING TO HIGH-CHANCE TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH RETROGRADES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...LEAVING THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNSETTLED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS FOR SATURDAY
INTO TUESDAY PRETTY SIMILAR...HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH WEATHER BECOMING MORE ACTIVE
TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. SCT-BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE TO SKC AFTER 00-02Z
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SKC WILL RULE OVERNIGHT...BUT
DON`T EXPECT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK
INCREASE TO 10-20KTS. AT THE SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...STRONGEST IN THE VALLEYS. AFTER 12Z...COLD FRONT
SHIFTS TOWARDS THE REGION WITH TSRA POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z AT
KMSS...PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR WITH BRIEF PERIOD MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. STORMS COULD BE STRONG...CAPABLE
OF TURBULENCE AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LIMITED RISK OF SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 12Z THU...MOST TAFS VFR. HOWEVER...POSSIBLE IFR OR LOWER
VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT SLK AND POSSIBLY MPV PENDING CLEARING.

12Z THU - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK POSSIBLE.
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LAHIFF






  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 221723
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
122 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 PM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED TO BROKEN
WITH ISOLATE VERY SMALL SHOWERS ON RADAR. WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. LOCAL
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL WINDS UP THE HUDSON RIVER COULD ASSIST WITH
ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR A FEW OF THESE CELLS TO
EXHIBIT POTENTIAL ROTATION. NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS REGION WHERE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY AND CUT DOWN ON THE INSOLATION.

THE COLD FRONT IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AS WE WILL TIME
A DECREASE IN POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL USHER IN DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...H850 TEMPS DROP NEAR 10C
DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO MID 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKS AND NW CT.

ON THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTHEAST
LEAVING BEHIND A VERY DRY MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB H800 AND STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCT CU TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 70S AND SOME UPPER 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
/HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S/. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SITUATED NORTH OF THE REGION OVER QUEBEC.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US FROM CANADA.
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MOIST FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTH...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE BEST CHC WILL BE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFTS
BACK INTO CANADA TOWARDS MID WEEK...ENDING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED AT TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL SUNSET.

THESE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE TODAY. SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU. THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TOO
SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE BKN CIGS AT 5-7 KFT.
THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM
OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT DESPITE HIGH LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...GJM/SND
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM










000
FXUS61 KALY 221723
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
122 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 PM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED TO BROKEN
WITH ISOLATE VERY SMALL SHOWERS ON RADAR. WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL BE 80 TO 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. LOCAL
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL WINDS UP THE HUDSON RIVER COULD ASSIST WITH
ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR A FEW OF THESE CELLS TO
EXHIBIT POTENTIAL ROTATION. NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS REGION WHERE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY AND CUT DOWN ON THE INSOLATION.

THE COLD FRONT IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AS WE WILL TIME
A DECREASE IN POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL USHER IN DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...H850 TEMPS DROP NEAR 10C
DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO MID 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKS AND NW CT.

ON THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTHEAST
LEAVING BEHIND A VERY DRY MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB H800 AND STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCT CU TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 70S AND SOME UPPER 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
/HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S/. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SITUATED NORTH OF THE REGION OVER QUEBEC.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US FROM CANADA.
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MOIST FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTH...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE BEST CHC WILL BE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFTS
BACK INTO CANADA TOWARDS MID WEEK...ENDING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED AT TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL SUNSET.

THESE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE TODAY. SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU. THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TOO
SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE BKN CIGS AT 5-7 KFT.
THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM
OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT DESPITE HIGH LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...GJM/SND
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM











000
FXUS61 KBTV 221710
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
110 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE. BEHIND THE FRONT...A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1038 AM EDT TUESDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING
CUMULUS CLOUDS FORMING OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT AND ACROSS A PORTION OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE...SO
NO CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 718 AM EDT TUESDAY...NOISE LEVEL TWEAKS TO SKY
COVER AND HOURLY T/TDS TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND
TO BLEND INTO EXISTENT DATA AT THE 9/10 AM HOUR. NO APPRECIABLE
CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...ANOTHER MAINLY SUNNY
AND WARM DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND MID/UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD FOSTER BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE...SO
LOOKING AT ONLY A FEW FAIR WX SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH NIL POPS. MODEL AVERAGED 18-00Z 925
MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW SPOT L90S IN
THE BROADER VALLEYS. WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WX CONTINUES TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST AND OFFSHORE...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR
WEST MAY TEND TO SPREAD SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES LATER AT NIGHT...BUT OUTSIDE A STRAY SLV SHOWER
TOWARD SUNRISE WE`LL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. LOWS CONTINUE MILD
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOCALLY NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

BRIEF...THOUGH ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN DEVELOPS DURING
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
MAKES STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA. DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILES
AND AMPLE PBL INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.
PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND MORNING SHOWERS MAY LIMIT THREAT ACROSS THE
SLV AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT SUCH SUBTLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WILL BE ALLOWED TO PLAY OUT AND HAVE MENTIONED THIS
THREAT IN ALL AREAS FOR NOW...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT TO SPC SWODY2.
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS (PWATS TO NEAR 2") APPEAR TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL A LESSER CONCERN GIVEN DEEPER WCD
VALUES AND WBZ HEIGHTS ABOVE 11 KFT. CONVECTIVE MODE WOULD BE LINEAR
WITH POSSBL QLCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH THE PBL. ALSO CAN`T
RULE OUT LOCALIZED HYDRO CONCERNS GIVEN THE WCD DEPTHS AND HIGH PWAT
VALUES...BUT WIND FIELDS APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY MOVING ALONG AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDS MOST WATERSHEDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THINGS OK.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SFC FRONT CLEARS EAST AND SOUTH WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ENDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN VT COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT OR
SO AND SKIES GRADUALLY TRENDING PC/CLR ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
LOWS A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE...MAINLY 50S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST/SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT UNDER BASE OF MEAN ERN
CANADA UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH. UPWARD MOISTURE FLUXES FROM PRIOR
EVENING`S RAINFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG JULY SUN SHOULD LEAD TO
DECENT COVERAGE OF FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...ALL AND ALL A VERY NICE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES AS HIGHS RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 00Z
GUIDANCE SUITE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND. THEREAFTER DETAIL DIFFERENCES EMERGE BETWEEN 00Z
GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF IN THE EVOLUTION AND
ULTIMATE RETROGRESSION OF A NORTHEASTERN NOAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH FOR
LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SOURCE OF THOSE DIFFERENCES
STEMS FROM HOW QUICKLY TO PHASE A SHEARING-OUT SHORTWAVE ENTERING
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH. OVERALL
PATTERN FAVORS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH CLOUDY/OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS AND THUNDER - BUT NOTHING THAT
SEEMS TOO SIGNIFICANT. DESPITE PREVAILING CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...TEMPS WILL TEND TO RUN AROUND NORMAL.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD
PROMOTE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT IN THE PERIOD (MID 40S TO VALLEY MID 50S). I DIDN`T
INTRODUCE INTO THE FORECAST YET BUT RIVER VALLEY FOG LOOKS TO BE A
GOOD POSSIBILITY THURS NIGHT AS WELL GIVEN WET SOIL CONDITIONS FROM
EXPECTED RAINFALL WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MORE FOCUSED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE ISN`T MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT COULDN`T
REALLY DISCOUNT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PIVOTS NORTHEAST WITH NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES. THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS
GRADUALLY INCREASING TO HIGH-CHANCE TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH RETROGRADES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...LEAVING THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNSETTLED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS FOR SATURDAY
INTO TUESDAY PRETTY SIMILAR...HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH WEATHER BECOMING MORE ACTIVE
TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. SCT-BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE TO SKC AFTER 00-02Z
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SKC WILL RULE OVERNIGHT...BUT
DON`T EXPECT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK
INCREASE TO 10-20KTS. AT THE SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...STRONGEST IN THE VALLEYS. AFTER 12Z...COLD FRONT
SHIFTS TOWARDS THE REGION WITH TSRA POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z AT
KMSS...PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR WITH BRIEF PERIOD MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. STORMS COULD BE STRONG...CAPABLE
OF TURBULENCE AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LIMITED RISK OF SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 12Z THU...MOST TAFS VFR. HOWEVER...POSSIBLE IFR OR LOWER
VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT SLK AND POSSIBLY MPV PENDING CLEARING.

12Z THU - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK POSSIBLE.
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/WGH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LAHIFF








000
FXUS61 KBTV 221710
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
110 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE. BEHIND THE FRONT...A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1038 AM EDT TUESDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING
CUMULUS CLOUDS FORMING OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT AND ACROSS A PORTION OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE...SO
NO CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 718 AM EDT TUESDAY...NOISE LEVEL TWEAKS TO SKY
COVER AND HOURLY T/TDS TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND
TO BLEND INTO EXISTENT DATA AT THE 9/10 AM HOUR. NO APPRECIABLE
CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...ANOTHER MAINLY SUNNY
AND WARM DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND MID/UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD FOSTER BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE...SO
LOOKING AT ONLY A FEW FAIR WX SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH NIL POPS. MODEL AVERAGED 18-00Z 925
MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW SPOT L90S IN
THE BROADER VALLEYS. WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WX CONTINUES TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST AND OFFSHORE...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR
WEST MAY TEND TO SPREAD SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES LATER AT NIGHT...BUT OUTSIDE A STRAY SLV SHOWER
TOWARD SUNRISE WE`LL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. LOWS CONTINUE MILD
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOCALLY NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

BRIEF...THOUGH ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN DEVELOPS DURING
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
MAKES STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA. DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILES
AND AMPLE PBL INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.
PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND MORNING SHOWERS MAY LIMIT THREAT ACROSS THE
SLV AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT SUCH SUBTLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WILL BE ALLOWED TO PLAY OUT AND HAVE MENTIONED THIS
THREAT IN ALL AREAS FOR NOW...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT TO SPC SWODY2.
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS (PWATS TO NEAR 2") APPEAR TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL A LESSER CONCERN GIVEN DEEPER WCD
VALUES AND WBZ HEIGHTS ABOVE 11 KFT. CONVECTIVE MODE WOULD BE LINEAR
WITH POSSBL QLCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH THE PBL. ALSO CAN`T
RULE OUT LOCALIZED HYDRO CONCERNS GIVEN THE WCD DEPTHS AND HIGH PWAT
VALUES...BUT WIND FIELDS APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY MOVING ALONG AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDS MOST WATERSHEDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THINGS OK.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SFC FRONT CLEARS EAST AND SOUTH WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ENDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN VT COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT OR
SO AND SKIES GRADUALLY TRENDING PC/CLR ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
LOWS A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE...MAINLY 50S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST/SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT UNDER BASE OF MEAN ERN
CANADA UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH. UPWARD MOISTURE FLUXES FROM PRIOR
EVENING`S RAINFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG JULY SUN SHOULD LEAD TO
DECENT COVERAGE OF FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...ALL AND ALL A VERY NICE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES AS HIGHS RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 00Z
GUIDANCE SUITE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND. THEREAFTER DETAIL DIFFERENCES EMERGE BETWEEN 00Z
GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF IN THE EVOLUTION AND
ULTIMATE RETROGRESSION OF A NORTHEASTERN NOAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH FOR
LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SOURCE OF THOSE DIFFERENCES
STEMS FROM HOW QUICKLY TO PHASE A SHEARING-OUT SHORTWAVE ENTERING
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH. OVERALL
PATTERN FAVORS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH CLOUDY/OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS AND THUNDER - BUT NOTHING THAT
SEEMS TOO SIGNIFICANT. DESPITE PREVAILING CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...TEMPS WILL TEND TO RUN AROUND NORMAL.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD
PROMOTE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT IN THE PERIOD (MID 40S TO VALLEY MID 50S). I DIDN`T
INTRODUCE INTO THE FORECAST YET BUT RIVER VALLEY FOG LOOKS TO BE A
GOOD POSSIBILITY THURS NIGHT AS WELL GIVEN WET SOIL CONDITIONS FROM
EXPECTED RAINFALL WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MORE FOCUSED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE ISN`T MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT COULDN`T
REALLY DISCOUNT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PIVOTS NORTHEAST WITH NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES. THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS
GRADUALLY INCREASING TO HIGH-CHANCE TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH RETROGRADES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...LEAVING THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNSETTLED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS FOR SATURDAY
INTO TUESDAY PRETTY SIMILAR...HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH WEATHER BECOMING MORE ACTIVE
TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. SCT-BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE TO SKC AFTER 00-02Z
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SKC WILL RULE OVERNIGHT...BUT
DON`T EXPECT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK
INCREASE TO 10-20KTS. AT THE SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...STRONGEST IN THE VALLEYS. AFTER 12Z...COLD FRONT
SHIFTS TOWARDS THE REGION WITH TSRA POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z AT
KMSS...PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR WITH BRIEF PERIOD MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. STORMS COULD BE STRONG...CAPABLE
OF TURBULENCE AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LIMITED RISK OF SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 12Z THU...MOST TAFS VFR. HOWEVER...POSSIBLE IFR OR LOWER
VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT SLK AND POSSIBLY MPV PENDING CLEARING.

12Z THU - 00Z MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK POSSIBLE.
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/WGH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KALY 221501
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1101 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1055 AM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. FIRST SMALL ECHO IS
ON RADAR JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE
WARMING FAST TODAY WITH ALBANY AIRPORT 78F AT 10 AM...WITH 80
CURRENTLY HERE ON ROOF. LATEST UPDATE INCLUDES NERFC QPF AND
WINDS BASED ON 12Z NAM. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS NEXT 36 HOURS
BASED ON QPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. LOCAL
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL WINDS UP THE HUDSON RIVER COULD ASSIST WITH
ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR A FEW OF THESE CELLS TO
EXHIBIT POTENTIAL ROTATION. NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS REGION WHERE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY AND CUT DOWN ON THE INSOLATION.

THE COLD FRONT IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AS WE WILL TIME
A DECREASE IN POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL USHER IN DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...H850 TEMPS DROP NEAR 10C
DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO MID 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKS AND NW CT.

ON THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTHEAST
LEAVING BEHIND A VERY DRY MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB H800 AND STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCT CU TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 70S AND SOME UPPER 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
/HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S/. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SITUATED NORTH OF THE REGION OVER QUEBEC.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US FROM CANADA.
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MOIST FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTH...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE BEST CHC WILL BE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFTS
BACK INTO CANADA TOWARDS MID WEEK...ENDING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED AT TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL SUNSET.

THESE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE TODAY. SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU. THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TOO
SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE BKN CIGS AT 5-7 KFT.
THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM
OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT DESPITE HIGH LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A HOT
AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 221501
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1101 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1055 AM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. FIRST SMALL ECHO IS
ON RADAR JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE
WARMING FAST TODAY WITH ALBANY AIRPORT 78F AT 10 AM...WITH 80
CURRENTLY HERE ON ROOF. LATEST UPDATE INCLUDES NERFC QPF AND
WINDS BASED ON 12Z NAM. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS NEXT 36 HOURS
BASED ON QPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. LOCAL
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL WINDS UP THE HUDSON RIVER COULD ASSIST WITH
ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR A FEW OF THESE CELLS TO
EXHIBIT POTENTIAL ROTATION. NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS REGION WHERE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY AND CUT DOWN ON THE INSOLATION.

THE COLD FRONT IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AS WE WILL TIME
A DECREASE IN POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL USHER IN DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...H850 TEMPS DROP NEAR 10C
DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO MID 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKS AND NW CT.

ON THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTHEAST
LEAVING BEHIND A VERY DRY MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB H800 AND STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCT CU TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 70S AND SOME UPPER 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
/HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S/. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SITUATED NORTH OF THE REGION OVER QUEBEC.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US FROM CANADA.
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MOIST FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTH...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE BEST CHC WILL BE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFTS
BACK INTO CANADA TOWARDS MID WEEK...ENDING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED AT TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL SUNSET.

THESE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE TODAY. SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU. THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TOO
SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE BKN CIGS AT 5-7 KFT.
THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM
OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT DESPITE HIGH LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A HOT
AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM








000
FXUS61 KBTV 221438
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1038 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE. BEHIND THE FRONT...A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1038 AM EDT TUESDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING
CUMULUS CLOUDS FORMING OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT AND ACROSS A PORTION OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE...SO
NO CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 718 AM EDT TUESDAY...NOISE LEVEL TWEAKS TO SKY
COVER AND HOURLY T/TDS TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND
TO BLEND INTO EXISTENT DATA AT THE 9/10 AM HOUR. NO APPRECIABLE
CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...ANOTHER MAINLY SUNNY
AND WARM DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND MID/UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD FOSTER BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE...SO
LOOKING AT ONLY A FEW FAIR WX SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH NIL POPS. MODEL AVERAGED 18-00Z 925
MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW SPOT L90S IN
THE BROADER VALLEYS. WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WX CONTINUES TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST AND OFFSHORE...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR
WEST MAY TEND TO SPREAD SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES LATER AT NIGHT...BUT OUTSIDE A STRAY SLV SHOWER
TOWARD SUNRISE WE`LL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. LOWS CONTINUE MILD
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOCALLY NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

BRIEF...THOUGH ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN DEVELOPS DURING
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
MAKES STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA. DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILES
AND AMPLE PBL INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.
PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND MORNING SHOWERS MAY LIMIT THREAT ACROSS THE
SLV AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT SUCH SUBTLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WILL BE ALLOWED TO PLAY OUT AND HAVE MENTIONED THIS
THREAT IN ALL AREAS FOR NOW...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT TO SPC SWODY2.
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS (PWATS TO NEAR 2") APPEAR TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL A LESSER CONCERN GIVEN DEEPER WCD
VALUES AND WBZ HEIGHTS ABOVE 11 KFT. CONVECTIVE MODE WOULD BE LINEAR
WITH POSSBL QLCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH THE PBL. ALSO CAN`T
RULE OUT LOCALIZED HYDRO CONCERNS GIVEN THE WCD DEPTHS AND HIGH PWAT
VALUES...BUT WIND FIELDS APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY MOVING ALONG AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDS MOST WATERSHEDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THINGS OK.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SFC FRONT CLEARS EAST AND SOUTH WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ENDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN VT COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT OR
SO AND SKIES GRADUALLY TRENDING PC/CLR ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
LOWS A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE...MAINLY 50S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST/SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT UNDER BASE OF MEAN ERN
CANADA UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH. UPWARD MOISTURE FLUXES FROM PRIOR
EVENING`S RAINFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG JULY SUN SHOULD LEAD TO
DECENT COVERAGE OF FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...ALL AND ALL A VERY NICE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES AS HIGHS RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 00Z
GUIDANCE SUITE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND. THEREAFTER DETAIL DIFFERENCES EMERGE BETWEEN 00Z
GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF IN THE EVOLUTION AND
ULTIMATE RETROGRESSION OF A NORTHEASTERN NOAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH FOR
LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SOURCE OF THOSE DIFFERENCES
STEMS FROM HOW QUICKLY TO PHASE A SHEARING-OUT SHORTWAVE ENTERING
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH. OVERALL
PATTERN FAVORS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH CLOUDY/OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS AND THUNDER - BUT NOTHING THAT
SEEMS TOO SIGNIFICANT. DESPITE PREVAILING CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...TEMPS WILL TEND TO RUN AROUND NORMAL.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD
PROMOTE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THURDSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT IN THE PERIOD (MID 40S TO VALLEY MID 50S). I DIDN`T
INTRODUCE INTO THE FORECAST YET BUT RIVER VALLEY FOG LOOKS TO BE A
GOOD POSSIBILITY THURS NIGHT AS WELL GIVEN WET SOIL CONDITIONS FROM
EXPECTED RAINFALL WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MORE FOCUSED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE ISN`T MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT COULDN`T
REALLY DISCOUNT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PIVOTS NORTHEAST WITH NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES. THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS
GRADUALLY INCREASING TO HIGH-CHANCE TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH RETROGRADES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...LEAVING THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNSETTLED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS FOR SATURDAY
INTO TUESDAY PRETTY SIMILAR...HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNEDSAY...VLIFR FOG AT SLK BURNS OFF EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES. A FEW-SCT CU POSSIBLE
AT MPV AND SLK NEAR TERRAIN BUT OTHERWISE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
LARGELY SUPPRESSES CU DEVELOPMENT TODAY. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
CIRRUS LATE IN THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY EVENING/OVERNIGHT WELL AHEAD
OF FRONTAL SYSTEM. ANY RAIN/T-STORMS LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
12Z WEDNESDAY HOWEVER. MIST/FOG UNLIKELY TONIGHT GIVEN INCREASING
CLOUDS AND PROGGED 10-15 KT BL WINDS. WINDS MOSTLY SOUTHERLY
UNDER 10 KTS (INITIALLY SE AT PBG THIS MORNING FROM LAKE BREEZE).

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR WITH BRIEF PERIOD MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. STORMS WEDNESDAY COULD BE
STRONG...CAPABLE OF TURBULENCE AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LIMITED
RISK OF SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 12Z THU...MOST TAFS VFR. HOWEVER...POSSIBLE IFR OR LOWER
VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT SLK AND POSSIBLY MPV PENDING CLEARING.

12Z THU - 00Z FRI...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY.

00Z FRI - 12Z FRI...IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST MPV AND
SLK...OTHERWISE VFR.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/WGH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO








000
FXUS61 KBTV 221438
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1038 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE. BEHIND THE FRONT...A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1038 AM EDT TUESDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING
CUMULUS CLOUDS FORMING OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT AND ACROSS A PORTION OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE...SO
NO CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 718 AM EDT TUESDAY...NOISE LEVEL TWEAKS TO SKY
COVER AND HOURLY T/TDS TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND
TO BLEND INTO EXISTENT DATA AT THE 9/10 AM HOUR. NO APPRECIABLE
CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...ANOTHER MAINLY SUNNY
AND WARM DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND MID/UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD FOSTER BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE...SO
LOOKING AT ONLY A FEW FAIR WX SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH NIL POPS. MODEL AVERAGED 18-00Z 925
MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW SPOT L90S IN
THE BROADER VALLEYS. WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WX CONTINUES TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST AND OFFSHORE...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR
WEST MAY TEND TO SPREAD SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES LATER AT NIGHT...BUT OUTSIDE A STRAY SLV SHOWER
TOWARD SUNRISE WE`LL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. LOWS CONTINUE MILD
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOCALLY NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

BRIEF...THOUGH ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN DEVELOPS DURING
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
MAKES STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA. DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILES
AND AMPLE PBL INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.
PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND MORNING SHOWERS MAY LIMIT THREAT ACROSS THE
SLV AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT SUCH SUBTLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WILL BE ALLOWED TO PLAY OUT AND HAVE MENTIONED THIS
THREAT IN ALL AREAS FOR NOW...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT TO SPC SWODY2.
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS (PWATS TO NEAR 2") APPEAR TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL A LESSER CONCERN GIVEN DEEPER WCD
VALUES AND WBZ HEIGHTS ABOVE 11 KFT. CONVECTIVE MODE WOULD BE LINEAR
WITH POSSBL QLCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH THE PBL. ALSO CAN`T
RULE OUT LOCALIZED HYDRO CONCERNS GIVEN THE WCD DEPTHS AND HIGH PWAT
VALUES...BUT WIND FIELDS APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY MOVING ALONG AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDS MOST WATERSHEDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THINGS OK.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SFC FRONT CLEARS EAST AND SOUTH WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ENDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN VT COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT OR
SO AND SKIES GRADUALLY TRENDING PC/CLR ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
LOWS A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE...MAINLY 50S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST/SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT UNDER BASE OF MEAN ERN
CANADA UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH. UPWARD MOISTURE FLUXES FROM PRIOR
EVENING`S RAINFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG JULY SUN SHOULD LEAD TO
DECENT COVERAGE OF FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...ALL AND ALL A VERY NICE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES AS HIGHS RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 00Z
GUIDANCE SUITE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND. THEREAFTER DETAIL DIFFERENCES EMERGE BETWEEN 00Z
GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF IN THE EVOLUTION AND
ULTIMATE RETROGRESSION OF A NORTHEASTERN NOAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH FOR
LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SOURCE OF THOSE DIFFERENCES
STEMS FROM HOW QUICKLY TO PHASE A SHEARING-OUT SHORTWAVE ENTERING
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH. OVERALL
PATTERN FAVORS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH CLOUDY/OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS AND THUNDER - BUT NOTHING THAT
SEEMS TOO SIGNIFICANT. DESPITE PREVAILING CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...TEMPS WILL TEND TO RUN AROUND NORMAL.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD
PROMOTE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THURDSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT IN THE PERIOD (MID 40S TO VALLEY MID 50S). I DIDN`T
INTRODUCE INTO THE FORECAST YET BUT RIVER VALLEY FOG LOOKS TO BE A
GOOD POSSIBILITY THURS NIGHT AS WELL GIVEN WET SOIL CONDITIONS FROM
EXPECTED RAINFALL WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MORE FOCUSED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE ISN`T MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT COULDN`T
REALLY DISCOUNT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PIVOTS NORTHEAST WITH NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES. THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS
GRADUALLY INCREASING TO HIGH-CHANCE TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH RETROGRADES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...LEAVING THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNSETTLED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS FOR SATURDAY
INTO TUESDAY PRETTY SIMILAR...HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNEDSAY...VLIFR FOG AT SLK BURNS OFF EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES. A FEW-SCT CU POSSIBLE
AT MPV AND SLK NEAR TERRAIN BUT OTHERWISE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
LARGELY SUPPRESSES CU DEVELOPMENT TODAY. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
CIRRUS LATE IN THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY EVENING/OVERNIGHT WELL AHEAD
OF FRONTAL SYSTEM. ANY RAIN/T-STORMS LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
12Z WEDNESDAY HOWEVER. MIST/FOG UNLIKELY TONIGHT GIVEN INCREASING
CLOUDS AND PROGGED 10-15 KT BL WINDS. WINDS MOSTLY SOUTHERLY
UNDER 10 KTS (INITIALLY SE AT PBG THIS MORNING FROM LAKE BREEZE).

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR WITH BRIEF PERIOD MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. STORMS WEDNESDAY COULD BE
STRONG...CAPABLE OF TURBULENCE AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LIMITED
RISK OF SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 12Z THU...MOST TAFS VFR. HOWEVER...POSSIBLE IFR OR LOWER
VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT SLK AND POSSIBLY MPV PENDING CLEARING.

12Z THU - 00Z FRI...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY.

00Z FRI - 12Z FRI...IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST MPV AND
SLK...OTHERWISE VFR.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/WGH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO







000
FXUS61 KALY 221303
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
903 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE BASED MAINLY ON 12Z ALBANY UPPER AIR SOUNDING. 12Z SOUNDING
SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST RAIN SHOWERS. UPDATED GRIDS TO INCLUDE THUNDER. WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE- ISOLATED POPS. HIGHS TODAY STILL EXPECTED
TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS TO AROUND 80F FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

UPDATE ALSO INCLUDED CHANGES TO CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING BASED ON
SATELLITE LOOP AND CHANGES TO MORNING TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS BASED
ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO CHANGES BEYOND THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. LOCAL
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL WINDS UP THE HUDSON RIVER COULD ASSIST WITH
ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR A FEW OF THESE CELLS TO
EXHIBIT POTENTIAL ROTATION. NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS REGION WHERE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY AND CUT DOWN ON THE INSOLATION.

THE COLD FRONT IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AS WE WILL TIME
A DECREASE IN POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL USHER IN DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...H850 TEMPS DROP NEAR 10C
DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO MID 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKS AND NW CT.

ON THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTHEAST
LEAVING BEHIND A VERY DRY MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB H800 AND STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCT CU TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 70S AND SOME UPPER 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
/HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S/. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SITUATED NORTH OF THE REGION OVER QUEBEC.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US FROM CANADA.
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MOIST FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTH...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE BEST CHC WILL BE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFTS
BACK INTO CANADA TOWARDS MID WEEK...ENDING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED AT TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL SUNSET.

THESE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE TODAY. SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU. THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TOO
SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE BKN CIGS AT 5-7 KFT.
THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM
OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT DESPITE HIGH LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A HOT
AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...SND/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 221303
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
903 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE BASED MAINLY ON 12Z ALBANY UPPER AIR SOUNDING. 12Z SOUNDING
SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST RAIN SHOWERS. UPDATED GRIDS TO INCLUDE THUNDER. WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE- ISOLATED POPS. HIGHS TODAY STILL EXPECTED
TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS TO AROUND 80F FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

UPDATE ALSO INCLUDED CHANGES TO CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING BASED ON
SATELLITE LOOP AND CHANGES TO MORNING TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS BASED
ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO CHANGES BEYOND THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. LOCAL
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL WINDS UP THE HUDSON RIVER COULD ASSIST WITH
ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR A FEW OF THESE CELLS TO
EXHIBIT POTENTIAL ROTATION. NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS REGION WHERE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY AND CUT DOWN ON THE INSOLATION.

THE COLD FRONT IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AS WE WILL TIME
A DECREASE IN POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL USHER IN DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...H850 TEMPS DROP NEAR 10C
DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO MID 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKS AND NW CT.

ON THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTHEAST
LEAVING BEHIND A VERY DRY MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB H800 AND STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCT CU TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 70S AND SOME UPPER 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
/HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S/. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SITUATED NORTH OF THE REGION OVER QUEBEC.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US FROM CANADA.
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MOIST FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTH...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE BEST CHC WILL BE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFTS
BACK INTO CANADA TOWARDS MID WEEK...ENDING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED AT TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL SUNSET.

THESE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE TODAY. SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU. THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TOO
SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE BKN CIGS AT 5-7 KFT.
THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM
OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT DESPITE HIGH LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A HOT
AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...SND/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 221303
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
903 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE BASED MAINLY ON 12Z ALBANY UPPER AIR SOUNDING. 12Z SOUNDING
SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST RAIN SHOWERS. UPDATED GRIDS TO INCLUDE THUNDER. WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE- ISOLATED POPS. HIGHS TODAY STILL EXPECTED
TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS TO AROUND 80F FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

UPDATE ALSO INCLUDED CHANGES TO CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING BASED ON
SATELLITE LOOP AND CHANGES TO MORNING TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS BASED
ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO CHANGES BEYOND THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. LOCAL
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL WINDS UP THE HUDSON RIVER COULD ASSIST WITH
ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR A FEW OF THESE CELLS TO
EXHIBIT POTENTIAL ROTATION. NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS REGION WHERE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY AND CUT DOWN ON THE INSOLATION.

THE COLD FRONT IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AS WE WILL TIME
A DECREASE IN POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL USHER IN DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...H850 TEMPS DROP NEAR 10C
DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO MID 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKS AND NW CT.

ON THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTHEAST
LEAVING BEHIND A VERY DRY MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB H800 AND STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCT CU TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 70S AND SOME UPPER 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
/HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S/. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SITUATED NORTH OF THE REGION OVER QUEBEC.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US FROM CANADA.
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MOIST FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTH...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE BEST CHC WILL BE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFTS
BACK INTO CANADA TOWARDS MID WEEK...ENDING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED AT TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL SUNSET.

THESE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE TODAY. SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU. THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TOO
SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE BKN CIGS AT 5-7 KFT.
THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM
OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT DESPITE HIGH LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A HOT
AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...SND/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 221303
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
903 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE BASED MAINLY ON 12Z ALBANY UPPER AIR SOUNDING. 12Z SOUNDING
SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST RAIN SHOWERS. UPDATED GRIDS TO INCLUDE THUNDER. WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE- ISOLATED POPS. HIGHS TODAY STILL EXPECTED
TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS TO AROUND 80F FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

UPDATE ALSO INCLUDED CHANGES TO CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING BASED ON
SATELLITE LOOP AND CHANGES TO MORNING TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS BASED
ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. NO CHANGES BEYOND THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. LOCAL
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL WINDS UP THE HUDSON RIVER COULD ASSIST WITH
ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR A FEW OF THESE CELLS TO
EXHIBIT POTENTIAL ROTATION. NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS REGION WHERE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY AND CUT DOWN ON THE INSOLATION.

THE COLD FRONT IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AS WE WILL TIME
A DECREASE IN POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL USHER IN DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...H850 TEMPS DROP NEAR 10C
DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO MID 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKS AND NW CT.

ON THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTHEAST
LEAVING BEHIND A VERY DRY MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB H800 AND STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCT CU TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 70S AND SOME UPPER 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
/HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S/. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SITUATED NORTH OF THE REGION OVER QUEBEC.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US FROM CANADA.
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MOIST FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTH...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE BEST CHC WILL BE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFTS
BACK INTO CANADA TOWARDS MID WEEK...ENDING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED AT TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL SUNSET.

THESE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE TODAY. SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU. THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TOO
SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE BKN CIGS AT 5-7 KFT.
THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM
OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT DESPITE HIGH LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A HOT
AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...SND/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 221122
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
722 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE. BEHIND THE FRONT...A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 718 AM EDT TUESDAY...NOISE LEVEL TWEAKS TO SKY COVER AND
HOURLY T/TDS TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND TO BLEND
INTO EXISTENT DATA AT THE 9/10 AM HOUR. NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO
GOING FORECAST. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...ANOTHER MAINLY SUNNY
AND WARM DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND MID/UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD FOSTER BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE...SO
LOOKING AT ONLY A FEW FAIR WX SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH NIL POPS. MODEL AVERAGED 18-00Z 925
MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW SPOT L90S IN
THE BROADER VALLEYS. WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WX CONTINUES TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST AND OFFSHORE...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR
WEST MAY TEND TO SPREAD SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES LATER AT NIGHT...BUT OUTSIDE A STRAY SLV SHOWER
TOWARD SUNRISE WE`LL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. LOWS CONTINUE MILD
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOCALLY NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

BRIEF...THOUGH ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN DEVELOPS DURING
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
MAKES STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA. DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILES
AND AMPLE PBL INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.
PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND MORNING SHOWERS MAY LIMIT THREAT ACROSS THE
SLV AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT SUCH SUBTLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WILL BE ALLOWED TO PLAY OUT AND HAVE MENTIONED THIS
THREAT IN ALL AREAS FOR NOW...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT TO SPC SWODY2.
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS (PWATS TO NEAR 2") APPEAR TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL A LESSER CONCERN GIVEN DEEPER WCD
VALUES AND WBZ HEIGHTS ABOVE 11 KFT. CONVECTIVE MODE WOULD BE LINEAR
WITH POSSBL QLCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH THE PBL. ALSO CAN`T
RULE OUT LOCALIZED HYDRO CONCERNS GIVEN THE WCD DEPTHS AND HIGH PWAT
VALUES...BUT WIND FIELDS APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY MOVING ALONG AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDS MOST WATERSHEDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THINGS OK.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SFC FRONT CLEARS EAST AND SOUTH WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ENDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN VT COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT OR
SO AND SKIES GRADUALLY TRENDING PC/CLR ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
LOWS A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE...MAINLY 50S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST/SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT UNDER BASE OF MEAN ERN
CANADA UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH. UPWARD MOISTURE FLUXES FROM PRIOR
EVENING`S RAINFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG JULY SUN SHOULD LEAD TO
DECENT COVERAGE OF FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...ALL AND ALL A VERY NICE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES AS HIGHS RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 00Z
GUIDANCE SUITE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND. THEREAFTER DETAIL DIFFERENCES EMERGE BETWEEN 00Z
GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF IN THE EVOLUTION AND
ULTIMATE RETROGRESSION OF A NORTHEASTERN NOAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH FOR
LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SOURCE OF THOSE DIFFERENCES
STEMS FROM HOW QUICKLY TO PHASE A SHEARING-OUT SHORTWAVE ENTERING
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH. OVERALL
PATTERN FAVORS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH CLOUDY/OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS AND THUNDER - BUT NOTHING THAT
SEEMS TOO SIGNIFICANT. DESPITE PREVAILING CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...TEMPS WILL TEND TO RUN AROUND NORMAL.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD
PROMOTE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THURDSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT IN THE PERIOD (MID 40S TO VALLEY MID 50S). I DIDN`T
INTRODUCE INTO THE FORECAST YET BUT RIVER VALLEY FOG LOOKS TO BE A
GOOD POSSIBILITY THURS NIGHT AS WELL GIVEN WET SOIL CONDITIONS FROM
EXPECTED RAINFALL WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MORE FOCUSED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE ISN`T MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT COULDN`T
REALLY DISCOUNT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PIVOTS NORTHEAST WITH NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES. THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS
GRADUALLY INCREASING TO HIGH-CHANCE TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH RETROGRADES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...LEAVING THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNSETTLED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS FOR SATURDAY
INTO TUESDAY PRETTY SIMILAR...HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNEDSAY...VLIFR FOG AT SLK BURNS OFF EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES. A FEW-SCT CU POSSIBLE
AT MPV AND SLK NEAR TERRAIN BUT OTHERWISE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
LARGELY SUPPRESSES CU DEVELOPMENT TODAY. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
CIRRUS LATE IN THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY EVENING/OVERNIGHT WELL AHEAD
OF FRONTAL SYSTEM. ANY RAIN/T-STORMS LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
12Z WEDNESDAY HOWEVER. MIST/FOG UNLIKELY TONIGHT GIVEN INCREASING
CLOUDS AND PROGGED 10-15 KT BL WINDS. WINDS MOSTLY SOUTHERLY
UNDER 10 KTS (INITIALLY SE AT PBG THIS MORNING FROM LAKE BREEZE).

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR WITH BRIEF PERIOD MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. STORMS WEDNESDAY COULD BE
STRONG...CAPABLE OF TURBULENCE AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LIMITED
RISK OF SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 12Z THU...MOST TAFS VFR. HOWEVER...POSSIBLE IFR OR LOWER
VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT SLK AND POSSIBLY MPV PENDING CLEARING.

12Z THU - 00Z FRI...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY.

00Z FRI - 12Z FRI...IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST MPV AND
SLK...OTHERWISE VFR.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO













000
FXUS61 KBTV 221122
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
722 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE. BEHIND THE FRONT...A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 718 AM EDT TUESDAY...NOISE LEVEL TWEAKS TO SKY COVER AND
HOURLY T/TDS TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND TO BLEND
INTO EXISTENT DATA AT THE 9/10 AM HOUR. NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO
GOING FORECAST. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...ANOTHER MAINLY SUNNY
AND WARM DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND MID/UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD FOSTER BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE...SO
LOOKING AT ONLY A FEW FAIR WX SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH NIL POPS. MODEL AVERAGED 18-00Z 925
MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW SPOT L90S IN
THE BROADER VALLEYS. WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WX CONTINUES TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST AND OFFSHORE...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR
WEST MAY TEND TO SPREAD SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES LATER AT NIGHT...BUT OUTSIDE A STRAY SLV SHOWER
TOWARD SUNRISE WE`LL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. LOWS CONTINUE MILD
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOCALLY NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

BRIEF...THOUGH ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN DEVELOPS DURING
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
MAKES STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA. DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILES
AND AMPLE PBL INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.
PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND MORNING SHOWERS MAY LIMIT THREAT ACROSS THE
SLV AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT SUCH SUBTLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WILL BE ALLOWED TO PLAY OUT AND HAVE MENTIONED THIS
THREAT IN ALL AREAS FOR NOW...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT TO SPC SWODY2.
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS (PWATS TO NEAR 2") APPEAR TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL A LESSER CONCERN GIVEN DEEPER WCD
VALUES AND WBZ HEIGHTS ABOVE 11 KFT. CONVECTIVE MODE WOULD BE LINEAR
WITH POSSBL QLCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH THE PBL. ALSO CAN`T
RULE OUT LOCALIZED HYDRO CONCERNS GIVEN THE WCD DEPTHS AND HIGH PWAT
VALUES...BUT WIND FIELDS APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY MOVING ALONG AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDS MOST WATERSHEDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THINGS OK.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SFC FRONT CLEARS EAST AND SOUTH WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ENDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN VT COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT OR
SO AND SKIES GRADUALLY TRENDING PC/CLR ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
LOWS A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE...MAINLY 50S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST/SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT UNDER BASE OF MEAN ERN
CANADA UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH. UPWARD MOISTURE FLUXES FROM PRIOR
EVENING`S RAINFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG JULY SUN SHOULD LEAD TO
DECENT COVERAGE OF FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...ALL AND ALL A VERY NICE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES AS HIGHS RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 00Z
GUIDANCE SUITE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND. THEREAFTER DETAIL DIFFERENCES EMERGE BETWEEN 00Z
GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF IN THE EVOLUTION AND
ULTIMATE RETROGRESSION OF A NORTHEASTERN NOAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH FOR
LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SOURCE OF THOSE DIFFERENCES
STEMS FROM HOW QUICKLY TO PHASE A SHEARING-OUT SHORTWAVE ENTERING
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH. OVERALL
PATTERN FAVORS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH CLOUDY/OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS AND THUNDER - BUT NOTHING THAT
SEEMS TOO SIGNIFICANT. DESPITE PREVAILING CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...TEMPS WILL TEND TO RUN AROUND NORMAL.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD
PROMOTE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THURDSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT IN THE PERIOD (MID 40S TO VALLEY MID 50S). I DIDN`T
INTRODUCE INTO THE FORECAST YET BUT RIVER VALLEY FOG LOOKS TO BE A
GOOD POSSIBILITY THURS NIGHT AS WELL GIVEN WET SOIL CONDITIONS FROM
EXPECTED RAINFALL WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MORE FOCUSED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE ISN`T MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT COULDN`T
REALLY DISCOUNT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PIVOTS NORTHEAST WITH NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES. THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS
GRADUALLY INCREASING TO HIGH-CHANCE TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH RETROGRADES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...LEAVING THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNSETTLED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS FOR SATURDAY
INTO TUESDAY PRETTY SIMILAR...HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNEDSAY...VLIFR FOG AT SLK BURNS OFF EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES. A FEW-SCT CU POSSIBLE
AT MPV AND SLK NEAR TERRAIN BUT OTHERWISE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
LARGELY SUPPRESSES CU DEVELOPMENT TODAY. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
CIRRUS LATE IN THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY EVENING/OVERNIGHT WELL AHEAD
OF FRONTAL SYSTEM. ANY RAIN/T-STORMS LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
12Z WEDNESDAY HOWEVER. MIST/FOG UNLIKELY TONIGHT GIVEN INCREASING
CLOUDS AND PROGGED 10-15 KT BL WINDS. WINDS MOSTLY SOUTHERLY
UNDER 10 KTS (INITIALLY SE AT PBG THIS MORNING FROM LAKE BREEZE).

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR WITH BRIEF PERIOD MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. STORMS WEDNESDAY COULD BE
STRONG...CAPABLE OF TURBULENCE AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LIMITED
RISK OF SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 12Z THU...MOST TAFS VFR. HOWEVER...POSSIBLE IFR OR LOWER
VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT SLK AND POSSIBLY MPV PENDING CLEARING.

12Z THU - 00Z FRI...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY.

00Z FRI - 12Z FRI...IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST MPV AND
SLK...OTHERWISE VFR.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO













000
FXUS61 KBTV 221122
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
722 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE. BEHIND THE FRONT...A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 718 AM EDT TUESDAY...NOISE LEVEL TWEAKS TO SKY COVER AND
HOURLY T/TDS TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND TO BLEND
INTO EXISTENT DATA AT THE 9/10 AM HOUR. NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO
GOING FORECAST. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...ANOTHER MAINLY SUNNY
AND WARM DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND MID/UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD FOSTER BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE...SO
LOOKING AT ONLY A FEW FAIR WX SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH NIL POPS. MODEL AVERAGED 18-00Z 925
MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW SPOT L90S IN
THE BROADER VALLEYS. WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WX CONTINUES TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST AND OFFSHORE...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR
WEST MAY TEND TO SPREAD SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES LATER AT NIGHT...BUT OUTSIDE A STRAY SLV SHOWER
TOWARD SUNRISE WE`LL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. LOWS CONTINUE MILD
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOCALLY NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

BRIEF...THOUGH ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN DEVELOPS DURING
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
MAKES STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA. DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILES
AND AMPLE PBL INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.
PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND MORNING SHOWERS MAY LIMIT THREAT ACROSS THE
SLV AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT SUCH SUBTLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WILL BE ALLOWED TO PLAY OUT AND HAVE MENTIONED THIS
THREAT IN ALL AREAS FOR NOW...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT TO SPC SWODY2.
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS (PWATS TO NEAR 2") APPEAR TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL A LESSER CONCERN GIVEN DEEPER WCD
VALUES AND WBZ HEIGHTS ABOVE 11 KFT. CONVECTIVE MODE WOULD BE LINEAR
WITH POSSBL QLCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH THE PBL. ALSO CAN`T
RULE OUT LOCALIZED HYDRO CONCERNS GIVEN THE WCD DEPTHS AND HIGH PWAT
VALUES...BUT WIND FIELDS APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY MOVING ALONG AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDS MOST WATERSHEDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THINGS OK.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SFC FRONT CLEARS EAST AND SOUTH WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ENDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN VT COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT OR
SO AND SKIES GRADUALLY TRENDING PC/CLR ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
LOWS A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE...MAINLY 50S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST/SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT UNDER BASE OF MEAN ERN
CANADA UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH. UPWARD MOISTURE FLUXES FROM PRIOR
EVENING`S RAINFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG JULY SUN SHOULD LEAD TO
DECENT COVERAGE OF FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...ALL AND ALL A VERY NICE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES AS HIGHS RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 00Z
GUIDANCE SUITE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND. THEREAFTER DETAIL DIFFERENCES EMERGE BETWEEN 00Z
GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF IN THE EVOLUTION AND
ULTIMATE RETROGRESSION OF A NORTHEASTERN NOAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH FOR
LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SOURCE OF THOSE DIFFERENCES
STEMS FROM HOW QUICKLY TO PHASE A SHEARING-OUT SHORTWAVE ENTERING
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH. OVERALL
PATTERN FAVORS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH CLOUDY/OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS AND THUNDER - BUT NOTHING THAT
SEEMS TOO SIGNIFICANT. DESPITE PREVAILING CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...TEMPS WILL TEND TO RUN AROUND NORMAL.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD
PROMOTE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THURDSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT IN THE PERIOD (MID 40S TO VALLEY MID 50S). I DIDN`T
INTRODUCE INTO THE FORECAST YET BUT RIVER VALLEY FOG LOOKS TO BE A
GOOD POSSIBILITY THURS NIGHT AS WELL GIVEN WET SOIL CONDITIONS FROM
EXPECTED RAINFALL WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MORE FOCUSED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE ISN`T MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT COULDN`T
REALLY DISCOUNT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PIVOTS NORTHEAST WITH NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES. THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS
GRADUALLY INCREASING TO HIGH-CHANCE TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH RETROGRADES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...LEAVING THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNSETTLED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS FOR SATURDAY
INTO TUESDAY PRETTY SIMILAR...HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNEDSAY...VLIFR FOG AT SLK BURNS OFF EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES. A FEW-SCT CU POSSIBLE
AT MPV AND SLK NEAR TERRAIN BUT OTHERWISE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
LARGELY SUPPRESSES CU DEVELOPMENT TODAY. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
CIRRUS LATE IN THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY EVENING/OVERNIGHT WELL AHEAD
OF FRONTAL SYSTEM. ANY RAIN/T-STORMS LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
12Z WEDNESDAY HOWEVER. MIST/FOG UNLIKELY TONIGHT GIVEN INCREASING
CLOUDS AND PROGGED 10-15 KT BL WINDS. WINDS MOSTLY SOUTHERLY
UNDER 10 KTS (INITIALLY SE AT PBG THIS MORNING FROM LAKE BREEZE).

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR WITH BRIEF PERIOD MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. STORMS WEDNESDAY COULD BE
STRONG...CAPABLE OF TURBULENCE AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LIMITED
RISK OF SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 12Z THU...MOST TAFS VFR. HOWEVER...POSSIBLE IFR OR LOWER
VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT SLK AND POSSIBLY MPV PENDING CLEARING.

12Z THU - 00Z FRI...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY.

00Z FRI - 12Z FRI...IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST MPV AND
SLK...OTHERWISE VFR.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO













000
FXUS61 KBTV 221122
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
722 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE. BEHIND THE FRONT...A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 718 AM EDT TUESDAY...NOISE LEVEL TWEAKS TO SKY COVER AND
HOURLY T/TDS TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND TO BLEND
INTO EXISTENT DATA AT THE 9/10 AM HOUR. NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO
GOING FORECAST. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...ANOTHER MAINLY SUNNY
AND WARM DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND MID/UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD FOSTER BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE...SO
LOOKING AT ONLY A FEW FAIR WX SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH NIL POPS. MODEL AVERAGED 18-00Z 925
MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW SPOT L90S IN
THE BROADER VALLEYS. WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WX CONTINUES TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST AND OFFSHORE...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR
WEST MAY TEND TO SPREAD SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES LATER AT NIGHT...BUT OUTSIDE A STRAY SLV SHOWER
TOWARD SUNRISE WE`LL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. LOWS CONTINUE MILD
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOCALLY NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

BRIEF...THOUGH ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN DEVELOPS DURING
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
MAKES STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA. DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILES
AND AMPLE PBL INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.
PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND MORNING SHOWERS MAY LIMIT THREAT ACROSS THE
SLV AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT SUCH SUBTLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WILL BE ALLOWED TO PLAY OUT AND HAVE MENTIONED THIS
THREAT IN ALL AREAS FOR NOW...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT TO SPC SWODY2.
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS (PWATS TO NEAR 2") APPEAR TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL A LESSER CONCERN GIVEN DEEPER WCD
VALUES AND WBZ HEIGHTS ABOVE 11 KFT. CONVECTIVE MODE WOULD BE LINEAR
WITH POSSBL QLCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH THE PBL. ALSO CAN`T
RULE OUT LOCALIZED HYDRO CONCERNS GIVEN THE WCD DEPTHS AND HIGH PWAT
VALUES...BUT WIND FIELDS APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY MOVING ALONG AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDS MOST WATERSHEDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THINGS OK.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SFC FRONT CLEARS EAST AND SOUTH WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ENDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN VT COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT OR
SO AND SKIES GRADUALLY TRENDING PC/CLR ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
LOWS A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE...MAINLY 50S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST/SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT UNDER BASE OF MEAN ERN
CANADA UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH. UPWARD MOISTURE FLUXES FROM PRIOR
EVENING`S RAINFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG JULY SUN SHOULD LEAD TO
DECENT COVERAGE OF FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...ALL AND ALL A VERY NICE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES AS HIGHS RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 00Z
GUIDANCE SUITE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND. THEREAFTER DETAIL DIFFERENCES EMERGE BETWEEN 00Z
GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF IN THE EVOLUTION AND
ULTIMATE RETROGRESSION OF A NORTHEASTERN NOAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH FOR
LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SOURCE OF THOSE DIFFERENCES
STEMS FROM HOW QUICKLY TO PHASE A SHEARING-OUT SHORTWAVE ENTERING
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH. OVERALL
PATTERN FAVORS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH CLOUDY/OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS AND THUNDER - BUT NOTHING THAT
SEEMS TOO SIGNIFICANT. DESPITE PREVAILING CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...TEMPS WILL TEND TO RUN AROUND NORMAL.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD
PROMOTE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THURDSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT IN THE PERIOD (MID 40S TO VALLEY MID 50S). I DIDN`T
INTRODUCE INTO THE FORECAST YET BUT RIVER VALLEY FOG LOOKS TO BE A
GOOD POSSIBILITY THURS NIGHT AS WELL GIVEN WET SOIL CONDITIONS FROM
EXPECTED RAINFALL WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MORE FOCUSED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE ISN`T MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT COULDN`T
REALLY DISCOUNT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PIVOTS NORTHEAST WITH NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES. THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS
GRADUALLY INCREASING TO HIGH-CHANCE TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH RETROGRADES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...LEAVING THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNSETTLED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS FOR SATURDAY
INTO TUESDAY PRETTY SIMILAR...HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNEDSAY...VLIFR FOG AT SLK BURNS OFF EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES. A FEW-SCT CU POSSIBLE
AT MPV AND SLK NEAR TERRAIN BUT OTHERWISE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
LARGELY SUPPRESSES CU DEVELOPMENT TODAY. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
CIRRUS LATE IN THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY EVENING/OVERNIGHT WELL AHEAD
OF FRONTAL SYSTEM. ANY RAIN/T-STORMS LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
12Z WEDNESDAY HOWEVER. MIST/FOG UNLIKELY TONIGHT GIVEN INCREASING
CLOUDS AND PROGGED 10-15 KT BL WINDS. WINDS MOSTLY SOUTHERLY
UNDER 10 KTS (INITIALLY SE AT PBG THIS MORNING FROM LAKE BREEZE).

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR WITH BRIEF PERIOD MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. STORMS WEDNESDAY COULD BE
STRONG...CAPABLE OF TURBULENCE AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LIMITED
RISK OF SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 12Z THU...MOST TAFS VFR. HOWEVER...POSSIBLE IFR OR LOWER
VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT SLK AND POSSIBLY MPV PENDING CLEARING.

12Z THU - 00Z FRI...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY.

00Z FRI - 12Z FRI...IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST MPV AND
SLK...OTHERWISE VFR.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO













000
FXUS61 KBTV 221118
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE. BEHIND THE FRONT...A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 718 AM EDT TUESDAY...NOISE LEVEL TWEAKS TO SKY COVER AND
HOURLY T/TDS TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND TO BLEND
INTO EXISTENT DATA AT THE 9/10 AM HOUR. NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO
GOING FORECAST. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...ANOTHER MAINLY SUNNY
AND WARM DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND MID/UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD FOSTER BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE...SO
LOOKING AT ONLY A FEW FAIR WX SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH NIL POPS. MODEL AVERAGED 18-00Z 925
MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW SPOT L90S IN
THE BROADER VALLEYS. WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WX CONTINUES TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST AND OFFSHORE...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR
WEST MAY TEND TO SPREAD SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES LATER AT NIGHT...BUT OUTSIDE A STRAY SLV SHOWER
TOWARD SUNRISE WE`LL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. LOWS CONTINUE MILD
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOCALLY NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

BRIEF...THOUGH ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN DEVELOPS DURING
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
MAKES STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA. DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILES
AND AMPLE PBL INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.
PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND MORNING SHOWERS MAY LIMIT THREAT ACROSS THE
SLV AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT SUCH SUBTLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WILL BE ALLOWED TO PLAY OUT AND HAVE MENTIONED THIS
THREAT IN ALL AREAS FOR NOW...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT TO SPC SWODY2.
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS (PWATS TO NEAR 2") APPEAR TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL A LESSER CONCERN GIVEN DEEPER WCD
VALUES AND WBZ HEIGHTS ABOVE 11 KFT. CONVECTIVE MODE WOULD BE LINEAR
WITH POSSBL QLCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH THE PBL. ALSO CAN`T
RULE OUT LOCALIZED HYDRO CONCERNS GIVEN THE WCD DEPTHS AND HIGH PWAT
VALUES...BUT WIND FIELDS APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY MOVING ALONG AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDS MOST WATERSHEDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THINGS OK.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SFC FRONT CLEARS EAST AND SOUTH WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ENDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN VT COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT OR
SO AND SKIES GRADUALLY TRENDING PC/CLR ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
LOWS A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE...MAINLY 50S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST/SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT UNDER BASE OF MEAN ERN
CANADA UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH. UPWARD MOISTURE FLUXES FROM PRIOR
EVENING`S RAINFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG JULY SUN SHOULD LEAD TO
DECENT COVERAGE OF FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...ALL AND ALL A VERY NICE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES AS HIGHS RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 00Z
GUIDANCE SUITE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND. THEREAFTER DETAIL DIFFERENCES EMERGE BETWEEN 00Z
GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF IN THE EVOLUTION AND
ULTIMATE RETROGRESSION OF A NORTHEASTERN NOAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH FOR
LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SOURCE OF THOSE DIFFERENCES
STEMS FROM HOW QUICKLY TO PHASE A SHEARING-OUT SHORTWAVE ENTERING
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH. OVERALL
PATTERN FAVORS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH CLOUDY/OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS AND THUNDER - BUT NOTHING THAT
SEEMS TOO SIGNIFICANT. DESPITE PREVAILING CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...TEMPS WILL TEND TO RUN AROUND NORMAL.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD
PROMOTE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THURDSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT IN THE PERIOD (MID 40S TO VALLEY MID 50S). I DIDN`T
INTRODUCE INTO THE FORECAST YET BUT RIVER VALLEY FOG LOOKS TO BE A
GOOD POSSIBILITY THURS NIGHT AS WELL GIVEN WET SOIL CONDITIONS FROM
EXPECTED RAINFALL WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MORE FOCUSED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE ISN`T MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT COULDN`T
REALLY DISCOUNT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PIVOTS NORTHEAST WITH NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES. THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS
GRADUALLY INCREASING TO HIGH-CHANCE TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH RETROGRADES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...LEAVING THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNSETTLED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS FOR SATURDAY
INTO TUESDAY PRETTY SIMILAR...HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...IFR TO VLIFR FOG/MIST AT SLK AND
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING AT MPV...OTHERWISE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. AREA OF SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF VERMONT WILL HELP DELAY MIST OR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT MPV
UNTIL AFTER 08Z WHEN THOSE CLOUDS BEGIN TO THIN OUT/MOVE EAST.
BUILDING UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT LIKELY TO
SUPPRESS AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT AT MPV/SLK IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO TERRAIN. WILL START TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS
TOWARDS TUESDAY EVENING PARTICULARLY AT MSS AND SLK. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY TUESDAY GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED - 12Z WED...VFR THOUGH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. POSSIBLE
MARGINAL LLWS AT MSS AS WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH
TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO







000
FXUS61 KBTV 221118
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE. BEHIND THE FRONT...A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 718 AM EDT TUESDAY...NOISE LEVEL TWEAKS TO SKY COVER AND
HOURLY T/TDS TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND TO BLEND
INTO EXISTENT DATA AT THE 9/10 AM HOUR. NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO
GOING FORECAST. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...ANOTHER MAINLY SUNNY
AND WARM DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND MID/UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD FOSTER BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE...SO
LOOKING AT ONLY A FEW FAIR WX SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH NIL POPS. MODEL AVERAGED 18-00Z 925
MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW SPOT L90S IN
THE BROADER VALLEYS. WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WX CONTINUES TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST AND OFFSHORE...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR
WEST MAY TEND TO SPREAD SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES LATER AT NIGHT...BUT OUTSIDE A STRAY SLV SHOWER
TOWARD SUNRISE WE`LL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. LOWS CONTINUE MILD
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOCALLY NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

BRIEF...THOUGH ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN DEVELOPS DURING
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
MAKES STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA. DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILES
AND AMPLE PBL INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.
PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND MORNING SHOWERS MAY LIMIT THREAT ACROSS THE
SLV AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT SUCH SUBTLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WILL BE ALLOWED TO PLAY OUT AND HAVE MENTIONED THIS
THREAT IN ALL AREAS FOR NOW...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT TO SPC SWODY2.
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS (PWATS TO NEAR 2") APPEAR TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL A LESSER CONCERN GIVEN DEEPER WCD
VALUES AND WBZ HEIGHTS ABOVE 11 KFT. CONVECTIVE MODE WOULD BE LINEAR
WITH POSSBL QLCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH THE PBL. ALSO CAN`T
RULE OUT LOCALIZED HYDRO CONCERNS GIVEN THE WCD DEPTHS AND HIGH PWAT
VALUES...BUT WIND FIELDS APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY MOVING ALONG AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDS MOST WATERSHEDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THINGS OK.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SFC FRONT CLEARS EAST AND SOUTH WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ENDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN VT COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT OR
SO AND SKIES GRADUALLY TRENDING PC/CLR ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
LOWS A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE...MAINLY 50S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST/SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT UNDER BASE OF MEAN ERN
CANADA UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH. UPWARD MOISTURE FLUXES FROM PRIOR
EVENING`S RAINFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG JULY SUN SHOULD LEAD TO
DECENT COVERAGE OF FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...ALL AND ALL A VERY NICE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES AS HIGHS RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 00Z
GUIDANCE SUITE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND. THEREAFTER DETAIL DIFFERENCES EMERGE BETWEEN 00Z
GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF IN THE EVOLUTION AND
ULTIMATE RETROGRESSION OF A NORTHEASTERN NOAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH FOR
LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SOURCE OF THOSE DIFFERENCES
STEMS FROM HOW QUICKLY TO PHASE A SHEARING-OUT SHORTWAVE ENTERING
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH. OVERALL
PATTERN FAVORS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH CLOUDY/OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS AND THUNDER - BUT NOTHING THAT
SEEMS TOO SIGNIFICANT. DESPITE PREVAILING CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...TEMPS WILL TEND TO RUN AROUND NORMAL.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD
PROMOTE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THURDSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT IN THE PERIOD (MID 40S TO VALLEY MID 50S). I DIDN`T
INTRODUCE INTO THE FORECAST YET BUT RIVER VALLEY FOG LOOKS TO BE A
GOOD POSSIBILITY THURS NIGHT AS WELL GIVEN WET SOIL CONDITIONS FROM
EXPECTED RAINFALL WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MORE FOCUSED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE ISN`T MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT COULDN`T
REALLY DISCOUNT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PIVOTS NORTHEAST WITH NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES. THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS
GRADUALLY INCREASING TO HIGH-CHANCE TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH RETROGRADES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...LEAVING THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNSETTLED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS FOR SATURDAY
INTO TUESDAY PRETTY SIMILAR...HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...IFR TO VLIFR FOG/MIST AT SLK AND
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING AT MPV...OTHERWISE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. AREA OF SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF VERMONT WILL HELP DELAY MIST OR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT MPV
UNTIL AFTER 08Z WHEN THOSE CLOUDS BEGIN TO THIN OUT/MOVE EAST.
BUILDING UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT LIKELY TO
SUPPRESS AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT AT MPV/SLK IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO TERRAIN. WILL START TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS
TOWARDS TUESDAY EVENING PARTICULARLY AT MSS AND SLK. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY TUESDAY GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED - 12Z WED...VFR THOUGH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. POSSIBLE
MARGINAL LLWS AT MSS AS WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH
TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO






000
FXUS61 KALY 221024
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
624 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY RETURNS TODAY...AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR MASS FILTERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH PATCHES
OF FOG PER REGIONAL METARS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
OFFSHORE TODAY. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WILL INCREASE THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ALLOW FOR HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
AND A WARMER THERMAL PROFILE. THIS WILL ALL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON FOR THE REGION. FORECAST PROFILES
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW THE INVERSION
AROUND H700 SO CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. AS FOR
CONVECTIVE PRECIP POTENTIAL...THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION IS
RATHER LOW AND BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL SO NO EXPECTING ANY
THUNDER. EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS FROM SPC/LOCAL-
WRF/HRRR/15M-HRRR STILL ADVERTISE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE-
ISOLATED POPS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS TO AROUND 80F FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING. THE
SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE MUGGY
INDEED AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. LOCAL
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL WINDS UP THE HUDSON RIVER COULD ASSIST WITH
ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR A FEW OF THESE CELLS TO
EXHIBIT POTENTIAL ROTATION. NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS REGION WHERE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY AND CUT DOWN ON THE INSOLATION.

THE COLD FRONT IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AS WE WILL TIME
A DECREASE IN POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL USHER IN DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...H850 TEMPS DROP NEAR 10C
DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO MID 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKS AND NW CT.

ON THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTHEAST
LEAVING BEHIND A VERY DRY MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB H800 AND STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCT CU TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 70S AND SOME UPPER 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
/HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S/. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SITUATED NORTH OF THE REGION OVER QUEBEC.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US FROM CANADA.
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MOIST FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTH...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE BEST CHC WILL BE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFTS
BACK INTO CANADA TOWARDS MID WEEK...ENDING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY MORNING MVFR BR WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AT KGFL/KPSF...ALLOWING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING.

THESE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE TODAY. SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU. THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TOO
SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE BKN CIGS AT 5-7 KFT.
THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM
OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT DESPITE HIGH LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A HOT
AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 221024
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
624 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY RETURNS TODAY...AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR MASS FILTERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH PATCHES
OF FOG PER REGIONAL METARS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
OFFSHORE TODAY. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WILL INCREASE THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ALLOW FOR HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
AND A WARMER THERMAL PROFILE. THIS WILL ALL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON FOR THE REGION. FORECAST PROFILES
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW THE INVERSION
AROUND H700 SO CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. AS FOR
CONVECTIVE PRECIP POTENTIAL...THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION IS
RATHER LOW AND BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL SO NO EXPECTING ANY
THUNDER. EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS FROM SPC/LOCAL-
WRF/HRRR/15M-HRRR STILL ADVERTISE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE-
ISOLATED POPS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS TO AROUND 80F FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING. THE
SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE MUGGY
INDEED AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. LOCAL
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL WINDS UP THE HUDSON RIVER COULD ASSIST WITH
ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR A FEW OF THESE CELLS TO
EXHIBIT POTENTIAL ROTATION. NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS REGION WHERE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY AND CUT DOWN ON THE INSOLATION.

THE COLD FRONT IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AS WE WILL TIME
A DECREASE IN POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL USHER IN DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...H850 TEMPS DROP NEAR 10C
DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO MID 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKS AND NW CT.

ON THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTHEAST
LEAVING BEHIND A VERY DRY MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB H800 AND STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCT CU TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 70S AND SOME UPPER 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
/HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S/. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SITUATED NORTH OF THE REGION OVER QUEBEC.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US FROM CANADA.
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MOIST FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTH...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE BEST CHC WILL BE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFTS
BACK INTO CANADA TOWARDS MID WEEK...ENDING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY MORNING MVFR BR WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AT KGFL/KPSF...ALLOWING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING.

THESE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE TODAY. SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU. THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TOO
SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE BKN CIGS AT 5-7 KFT.
THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM
OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT DESPITE HIGH LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A HOT
AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 221024
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
624 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY RETURNS TODAY...AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR MASS FILTERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH PATCHES
OF FOG PER REGIONAL METARS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
OFFSHORE TODAY. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WILL INCREASE THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ALLOW FOR HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
AND A WARMER THERMAL PROFILE. THIS WILL ALL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON FOR THE REGION. FORECAST PROFILES
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW THE INVERSION
AROUND H700 SO CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. AS FOR
CONVECTIVE PRECIP POTENTIAL...THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION IS
RATHER LOW AND BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL SO NO EXPECTING ANY
THUNDER. EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS FROM SPC/LOCAL-
WRF/HRRR/15M-HRRR STILL ADVERTISE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE-
ISOLATED POPS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS TO AROUND 80F FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING. THE
SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE MUGGY
INDEED AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. LOCAL
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL WINDS UP THE HUDSON RIVER COULD ASSIST WITH
ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR A FEW OF THESE CELLS TO
EXHIBIT POTENTIAL ROTATION. NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS REGION WHERE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY AND CUT DOWN ON THE INSOLATION.

THE COLD FRONT IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AS WE WILL TIME
A DECREASE IN POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL USHER IN DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...H850 TEMPS DROP NEAR 10C
DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO MID 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKS AND NW CT.

ON THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTHEAST
LEAVING BEHIND A VERY DRY MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB H800 AND STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCT CU TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 70S AND SOME UPPER 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
/HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S/. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SITUATED NORTH OF THE REGION OVER QUEBEC.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US FROM CANADA.
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MOIST FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTH...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE BEST CHC WILL BE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFTS
BACK INTO CANADA TOWARDS MID WEEK...ENDING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY MORNING MVFR BR WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AT KGFL/KPSF...ALLOWING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING.

THESE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE TODAY. SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU. THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TOO
SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE BKN CIGS AT 5-7 KFT.
THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM
OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT DESPITE HIGH LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A HOT
AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 221024
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
624 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY RETURNS TODAY...AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR MASS FILTERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH PATCHES
OF FOG PER REGIONAL METARS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
OFFSHORE TODAY. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WILL INCREASE THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ALLOW FOR HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
AND A WARMER THERMAL PROFILE. THIS WILL ALL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON FOR THE REGION. FORECAST PROFILES
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW THE INVERSION
AROUND H700 SO CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. AS FOR
CONVECTIVE PRECIP POTENTIAL...THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION IS
RATHER LOW AND BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL SO NO EXPECTING ANY
THUNDER. EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS FROM SPC/LOCAL-
WRF/HRRR/15M-HRRR STILL ADVERTISE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE-
ISOLATED POPS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS TO AROUND 80F FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING. THE
SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE MUGGY
INDEED AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. LOCAL
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL WINDS UP THE HUDSON RIVER COULD ASSIST WITH
ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR A FEW OF THESE CELLS TO
EXHIBIT POTENTIAL ROTATION. NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS REGION WHERE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY AND CUT DOWN ON THE INSOLATION.

THE COLD FRONT IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AS WE WILL TIME
A DECREASE IN POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL USHER IN DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...H850 TEMPS DROP NEAR 10C
DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO MID 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKS AND NW CT.

ON THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTHEAST
LEAVING BEHIND A VERY DRY MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB H800 AND STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCT CU TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 70S AND SOME UPPER 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
/HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S/. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SITUATED NORTH OF THE REGION OVER QUEBEC.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US FROM CANADA.
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MOIST FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTH...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE BEST CHC WILL BE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFTS
BACK INTO CANADA TOWARDS MID WEEK...ENDING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY MORNING MVFR BR WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AT KGFL/KPSF...ALLOWING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING.

THESE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE TODAY. SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU. THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TOO
SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE BKN CIGS AT 5-7 KFT.
THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM
OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT DESPITE HIGH LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.
LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A HOT
AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KBTV 220757
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
357 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE. BEHIND THE FRONT...A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...ANOTHER MAINLY SUNNY AND WARM DAY ON TAP
FOR THE REGION AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
SHOULD FOSTER BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE...SO LOOKING AT ONLY A FEW
FAIR WX SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH NIL POPS. MODEL AVERAGED 18-00Z 925 MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW SPOT L90S IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.
WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WX CONTINUES TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST AND OFFSHORE...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR
WEST MAY TEND TO SPREAD SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES LATER AT NIGHT...BUT OUTSIDE A STRAY SLV SHOWER
TOWARD SUNRISE WE`LL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. LOWS CONTINUE MILD
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOCALLY NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

BRIEF...THOUGH ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN DEVELOPS DURING
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
MAKES STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA. DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILES
AND AMPLE PBL INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.
PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND MORNING SHOWERS MAY LIMIT THREAT ACROSS THE
SLV AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT SUCH SUBTLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WILL BE ALLOWED TO PLAY OUT AND HAVE MENTIONED THIS
THREAT IN ALL AREAS FOR NOW...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT TO SPC SWODY2.
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS (PWATS TO NEAR 2") APPEAR TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL A LESSER CONCERN GIVEN DEEPER WCD
VALUES AND WBZ HEIGHTS ABOVE 11 KFT. CONVECTIVE MODE WOULD BE LINEAR
WITH POSSBL QLCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH THE PBL. ALSO CAN`T
RULE OUT LOCALIZED HYDRO CONCERNS GIVEN THE WCD DEPTHS AND HIGH PWAT
VALUES...BUT WIND FIELDS APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY MOVING ALONG AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDS MOST WATERSHEDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THINGS OK.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SFC FRONT CLEARS EAST AND SOUTH WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ENDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN VT COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT OR
SO AND SKIES GRADUALLY TRENDING PC/CLR ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
LOWS A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE...MAINLY 50S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST/SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT UNDER BASE OF MEAN ERN
CANADA UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH. UPWARD MOISTURE FLUXES FROM PRIOR
EVENING`S RAINFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG JULY SUN SHOULD LEAD TO
DECENT COVERAGE OF FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...ALL AND ALL A VERY NICE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES AS HIGHS RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 00Z
GUIDANCE SUITE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND. THEREAFTER DETAIL DIFFERENCES EMERGE BETWEEN 00Z
GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF IN THE EVOLUTION AND
ULTIMATE RETROGRESSION OF A NORTHEASTERN NOAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH FOR
LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SOURCE OF THOSE DIFFERENCES
STEMS FROM HOW QUICKLY TO PHASE A SHEARING-OUT SHORTWAVE ENTERING
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH. OVERALL
PATTERN FAVORS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH CLOUDY/OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS AND THUNDER - BUT NOTHING THAT
SEEMS TOO SIGNIFICANT. DESPITE PREVAILING CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...TEMPS WILL TEND TO RUN AROUND NORMAL.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD
PROMOTE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THURDSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT IN THE PERIOD (MID 40S TO VALLEY MID 50S). I DIDN`T
INTRODUCE INTO THE FORECAST YET BUT RIVER VALLEY FOG LOOKS TO BE A
GOOD POSSIBILITY THURS NIGHT AS WELL GIVEN WET SOIL CONDITIONS FROM
EXPECTED RAINFALL WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MORE FOCUSED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE ISN`T MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT COULDN`T
REALLY DISCOUNT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PIVOTS NORTHEAST WITH NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES. THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS
GRADUALLY INCREASING TO HIGH-CHANCE TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH RETROGRADES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...LEAVING THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNSETTLED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS FOR SATURDAY
INTO TUESDAY PRETTY SIMILAR...HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...IFR TO VLIFR FOG/MIST AT SLK AND
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING AT MPV...OTHERWISE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. AREA OF SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF VERMONT WILL HELP DELAY MIST OR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT MPV
UNTIL AFTER 08Z WHEN THOSE CLOUDS BEGIN TO THIN OUT/MOVE EAST.
BUILDING UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT LIKELY TO
SUPPRESS AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT AT MPV/SLK IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO TERRAIN. WILL START TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS
TOWARDS TUESDAY EVENING PARTICULARLY AT MSS AND SLK. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY TUESDAY GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED - 12Z WED...VFR THOUGH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. POSSIBLE
MARGINAL LLWS AT MSS AS WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH
TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO








000
FXUS61 KBTV 220757
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
357 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE. BEHIND THE FRONT...A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...ANOTHER MAINLY SUNNY AND WARM DAY ON TAP
FOR THE REGION AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
SHOULD FOSTER BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE...SO LOOKING AT ONLY A FEW
FAIR WX SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH NIL POPS. MODEL AVERAGED 18-00Z 925 MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW SPOT L90S IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.
WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WX CONTINUES TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST AND OFFSHORE...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR
WEST MAY TEND TO SPREAD SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES LATER AT NIGHT...BUT OUTSIDE A STRAY SLV SHOWER
TOWARD SUNRISE WE`LL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. LOWS CONTINUE MILD
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOCALLY NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

BRIEF...THOUGH ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN DEVELOPS DURING
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
MAKES STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA. DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILES
AND AMPLE PBL INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.
PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND MORNING SHOWERS MAY LIMIT THREAT ACROSS THE
SLV AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT SUCH SUBTLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WILL BE ALLOWED TO PLAY OUT AND HAVE MENTIONED THIS
THREAT IN ALL AREAS FOR NOW...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT TO SPC SWODY2.
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS (PWATS TO NEAR 2") APPEAR TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL A LESSER CONCERN GIVEN DEEPER WCD
VALUES AND WBZ HEIGHTS ABOVE 11 KFT. CONVECTIVE MODE WOULD BE LINEAR
WITH POSSBL QLCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH THE PBL. ALSO CAN`T
RULE OUT LOCALIZED HYDRO CONCERNS GIVEN THE WCD DEPTHS AND HIGH PWAT
VALUES...BUT WIND FIELDS APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY MOVING ALONG AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDS MOST WATERSHEDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THINGS OK.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SFC FRONT CLEARS EAST AND SOUTH WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ENDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN VT COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT OR
SO AND SKIES GRADUALLY TRENDING PC/CLR ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
LOWS A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE...MAINLY 50S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST/SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT UNDER BASE OF MEAN ERN
CANADA UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH. UPWARD MOISTURE FLUXES FROM PRIOR
EVENING`S RAINFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG JULY SUN SHOULD LEAD TO
DECENT COVERAGE OF FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...ALL AND ALL A VERY NICE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES AS HIGHS RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 00Z
GUIDANCE SUITE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND. THEREAFTER DETAIL DIFFERENCES EMERGE BETWEEN 00Z
GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF IN THE EVOLUTION AND
ULTIMATE RETROGRESSION OF A NORTHEASTERN NOAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH FOR
LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SOURCE OF THOSE DIFFERENCES
STEMS FROM HOW QUICKLY TO PHASE A SHEARING-OUT SHORTWAVE ENTERING
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH. OVERALL
PATTERN FAVORS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH CLOUDY/OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS AND THUNDER - BUT NOTHING THAT
SEEMS TOO SIGNIFICANT. DESPITE PREVAILING CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...TEMPS WILL TEND TO RUN AROUND NORMAL.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD
PROMOTE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THURDSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT IN THE PERIOD (MID 40S TO VALLEY MID 50S). I DIDN`T
INTRODUCE INTO THE FORECAST YET BUT RIVER VALLEY FOG LOOKS TO BE A
GOOD POSSIBILITY THURS NIGHT AS WELL GIVEN WET SOIL CONDITIONS FROM
EXPECTED RAINFALL WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MORE FOCUSED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE ISN`T MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT COULDN`T
REALLY DISCOUNT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PIVOTS NORTHEAST WITH NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES. THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS
GRADUALLY INCREASING TO HIGH-CHANCE TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH RETROGRADES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...LEAVING THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNSETTLED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS FOR SATURDAY
INTO TUESDAY PRETTY SIMILAR...HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...IFR TO VLIFR FOG/MIST AT SLK AND
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING AT MPV...OTHERWISE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. AREA OF SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF VERMONT WILL HELP DELAY MIST OR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT MPV
UNTIL AFTER 08Z WHEN THOSE CLOUDS BEGIN TO THIN OUT/MOVE EAST.
BUILDING UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT LIKELY TO
SUPPRESS AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT AT MPV/SLK IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO TERRAIN. WILL START TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS
TOWARDS TUESDAY EVENING PARTICULARLY AT MSS AND SLK. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY TUESDAY GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED - 12Z WED...VFR THOUGH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. POSSIBLE
MARGINAL LLWS AT MSS AS WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH
TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO








000
FXUS61 KBTV 220757
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
357 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE. BEHIND THE FRONT...A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...ANOTHER MAINLY SUNNY AND WARM DAY ON TAP
FOR THE REGION AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
SHOULD FOSTER BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE...SO LOOKING AT ONLY A FEW
FAIR WX SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH NIL POPS. MODEL AVERAGED 18-00Z 925 MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW SPOT L90S IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.
WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WX CONTINUES TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST AND OFFSHORE...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR
WEST MAY TEND TO SPREAD SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES LATER AT NIGHT...BUT OUTSIDE A STRAY SLV SHOWER
TOWARD SUNRISE WE`LL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. LOWS CONTINUE MILD
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOCALLY NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

BRIEF...THOUGH ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN DEVELOPS DURING
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
MAKES STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA. DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILES
AND AMPLE PBL INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.
PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND MORNING SHOWERS MAY LIMIT THREAT ACROSS THE
SLV AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT SUCH SUBTLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WILL BE ALLOWED TO PLAY OUT AND HAVE MENTIONED THIS
THREAT IN ALL AREAS FOR NOW...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT TO SPC SWODY2.
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS (PWATS TO NEAR 2") APPEAR TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL A LESSER CONCERN GIVEN DEEPER WCD
VALUES AND WBZ HEIGHTS ABOVE 11 KFT. CONVECTIVE MODE WOULD BE LINEAR
WITH POSSBL QLCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH THE PBL. ALSO CAN`T
RULE OUT LOCALIZED HYDRO CONCERNS GIVEN THE WCD DEPTHS AND HIGH PWAT
VALUES...BUT WIND FIELDS APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY MOVING ALONG AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDS MOST WATERSHEDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THINGS OK.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SFC FRONT CLEARS EAST AND SOUTH WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ENDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN VT COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT OR
SO AND SKIES GRADUALLY TRENDING PC/CLR ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
LOWS A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE...MAINLY 50S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST/SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT UNDER BASE OF MEAN ERN
CANADA UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH. UPWARD MOISTURE FLUXES FROM PRIOR
EVENING`S RAINFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG JULY SUN SHOULD LEAD TO
DECENT COVERAGE OF FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...ALL AND ALL A VERY NICE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES AS HIGHS RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 00Z
GUIDANCE SUITE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND. THEREAFTER DETAIL DIFFERENCES EMERGE BETWEEN 00Z
GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF IN THE EVOLUTION AND
ULTIMATE RETROGRESSION OF A NORTHEASTERN NOAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH FOR
LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SOURCE OF THOSE DIFFERENCES
STEMS FROM HOW QUICKLY TO PHASE A SHEARING-OUT SHORTWAVE ENTERING
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH. OVERALL
PATTERN FAVORS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH CLOUDY/OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS AND THUNDER - BUT NOTHING THAT
SEEMS TOO SIGNIFICANT. DESPITE PREVAILING CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...TEMPS WILL TEND TO RUN AROUND NORMAL.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD
PROMOTE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THURDSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT IN THE PERIOD (MID 40S TO VALLEY MID 50S). I DIDN`T
INTRODUCE INTO THE FORECAST YET BUT RIVER VALLEY FOG LOOKS TO BE A
GOOD POSSIBILITY THURS NIGHT AS WELL GIVEN WET SOIL CONDITIONS FROM
EXPECTED RAINFALL WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MORE FOCUSED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE ISN`T MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT COULDN`T
REALLY DISCOUNT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PIVOTS NORTHEAST WITH NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES. THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS
GRADUALLY INCREASING TO HIGH-CHANCE TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH RETROGRADES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...LEAVING THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNSETTLED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS FOR SATURDAY
INTO TUESDAY PRETTY SIMILAR...HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...IFR TO VLIFR FOG/MIST AT SLK AND
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING AT MPV...OTHERWISE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. AREA OF SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF VERMONT WILL HELP DELAY MIST OR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT MPV
UNTIL AFTER 08Z WHEN THOSE CLOUDS BEGIN TO THIN OUT/MOVE EAST.
BUILDING UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT LIKELY TO
SUPPRESS AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT AT MPV/SLK IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO TERRAIN. WILL START TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS
TOWARDS TUESDAY EVENING PARTICULARLY AT MSS AND SLK. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY TUESDAY GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED - 12Z WED...VFR THOUGH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. POSSIBLE
MARGINAL LLWS AT MSS AS WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH
TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO








000
FXUS61 KBTV 220757
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
357 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE. BEHIND THE FRONT...A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...ANOTHER MAINLY SUNNY AND WARM DAY ON TAP
FOR THE REGION AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
SHOULD FOSTER BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE...SO LOOKING AT ONLY A FEW
FAIR WX SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH NIL POPS. MODEL AVERAGED 18-00Z 925 MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW SPOT L90S IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.
WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WX CONTINUES TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST AND OFFSHORE...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR
WEST MAY TEND TO SPREAD SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES LATER AT NIGHT...BUT OUTSIDE A STRAY SLV SHOWER
TOWARD SUNRISE WE`LL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. LOWS CONTINUE MILD
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOCALLY NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

BRIEF...THOUGH ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN DEVELOPS DURING
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
MAKES STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA. DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILES
AND AMPLE PBL INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.
PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND MORNING SHOWERS MAY LIMIT THREAT ACROSS THE
SLV AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT SUCH SUBTLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WILL BE ALLOWED TO PLAY OUT AND HAVE MENTIONED THIS
THREAT IN ALL AREAS FOR NOW...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT TO SPC SWODY2.
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS (PWATS TO NEAR 2") APPEAR TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL A LESSER CONCERN GIVEN DEEPER WCD
VALUES AND WBZ HEIGHTS ABOVE 11 KFT. CONVECTIVE MODE WOULD BE LINEAR
WITH POSSBL QLCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH THE PBL. ALSO CAN`T
RULE OUT LOCALIZED HYDRO CONCERNS GIVEN THE WCD DEPTHS AND HIGH PWAT
VALUES...BUT WIND FIELDS APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY MOVING ALONG AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDS MOST WATERSHEDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THINGS OK.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SFC FRONT CLEARS EAST AND SOUTH WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ENDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN VT COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT OR
SO AND SKIES GRADUALLY TRENDING PC/CLR ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
LOWS A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE...MAINLY 50S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST/SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT UNDER BASE OF MEAN ERN
CANADA UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH. UPWARD MOISTURE FLUXES FROM PRIOR
EVENING`S RAINFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG JULY SUN SHOULD LEAD TO
DECENT COVERAGE OF FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...ALL AND ALL A VERY NICE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES AS HIGHS RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 00Z
GUIDANCE SUITE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND. THEREAFTER DETAIL DIFFERENCES EMERGE BETWEEN 00Z
GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF IN THE EVOLUTION AND
ULTIMATE RETROGRESSION OF A NORTHEASTERN NOAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH FOR
LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SOURCE OF THOSE DIFFERENCES
STEMS FROM HOW QUICKLY TO PHASE A SHEARING-OUT SHORTWAVE ENTERING
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH. OVERALL
PATTERN FAVORS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH CLOUDY/OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS AND THUNDER - BUT NOTHING THAT
SEEMS TOO SIGNIFICANT. DESPITE PREVAILING CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...TEMPS WILL TEND TO RUN AROUND NORMAL.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD
PROMOTE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THURDSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT IN THE PERIOD (MID 40S TO VALLEY MID 50S). I DIDN`T
INTRODUCE INTO THE FORECAST YET BUT RIVER VALLEY FOG LOOKS TO BE A
GOOD POSSIBILITY THURS NIGHT AS WELL GIVEN WET SOIL CONDITIONS FROM
EXPECTED RAINFALL WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MORE FOCUSED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE ISN`T MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT COULDN`T
REALLY DISCOUNT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PIVOTS NORTHEAST WITH NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES. THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS
GRADUALLY INCREASING TO HIGH-CHANCE TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH RETROGRADES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...LEAVING THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNSETTLED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS FOR SATURDAY
INTO TUESDAY PRETTY SIMILAR...HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...IFR TO VLIFR FOG/MIST AT SLK AND
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING AT MPV...OTHERWISE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. AREA OF SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF VERMONT WILL HELP DELAY MIST OR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT MPV
UNTIL AFTER 08Z WHEN THOSE CLOUDS BEGIN TO THIN OUT/MOVE EAST.
BUILDING UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT LIKELY TO
SUPPRESS AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT AT MPV/SLK IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO TERRAIN. WILL START TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS
TOWARDS TUESDAY EVENING PARTICULARLY AT MSS AND SLK. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY TUESDAY GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED - 12Z WED...VFR THOUGH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. POSSIBLE
MARGINAL LLWS AT MSS AS WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH
TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO








000
FXUS61 KALY 220739
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
339 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY RETURNS TODAY...AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR MASS FILTERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM...VARIABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION WITH PATCHES
OF FOG PER REGIONAL METARS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
OFFSHORE TODAY. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WILL INCREASE THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ALLOW FOR HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
AND A WARMER THERMAL PROFILE. THIS WILL ALL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON FOR THE REGION. FORECAST PROFILES
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW THE INVERSION
AROUND H700 SO CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. AS FOR
CONVECTIVE PRECIP POTENTIAL...THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION IS
RATHER LOW AND BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL SO NO EXPECTING ANY
THUNDER. EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS FROM SPC/LOCAL-
WRF/HRRR STILL ADVERTISE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE-ISOLATED
POPS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS TO AROUND 80F FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING. THE
SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE MUGGY
INDEED AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. LOCAL
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL WINDS UP THE HUDSON RIVER COULD ASSIST WITH
ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR A FEW OF THESE CELLS TO
EXHIBIT POTENTIAL ROTATION. NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS REGION WHERE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY AND CUT DOWN ON THE INSOLATION.

THE COLD FRONT IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AS WE WILL TIME
A DECREASE IN POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL USHER IN DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...H850 TEMPS DROP NEAR 10C
DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO MID 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKS AND NW CT.

ON THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTHEAST
LEAVING BEHIND A VERY DRY MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB H800 AND STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCT CU TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 70S AND SOME UPPER 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
/HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S/. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SITUATED NORTH OF THE REGION OVER QUEBEC.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US FROM CANADA.
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MOIST FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTH...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE BEST CHC WILL BE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFTS
BACK INTO CANADA TOWARDS MID WEEK...ENDING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION WITH
JUST A FEW PATCHES OF SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS PASSING
OVER THE AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THAN RECENT NIGHTS...SOME IFR RADIATIONAL FOG WILL DEVELOP
AT KGFL/KPSF.  THIS FOG WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE...ENOUGH OF A T/TD
SPREAD SHOULD PREVENT ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE.
SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT
DIURNAL CU. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD
PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A HOT
AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 220739
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
339 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY RETURNS TODAY...AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR MASS FILTERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM...VARIABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION WITH PATCHES
OF FOG PER REGIONAL METARS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
OFFSHORE TODAY. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WILL INCREASE THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ALLOW FOR HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
AND A WARMER THERMAL PROFILE. THIS WILL ALL RESULT IN A RATHER
WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON FOR THE REGION. FORECAST PROFILES
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW THE INVERSION
AROUND H700 SO CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. AS FOR
CONVECTIVE PRECIP POTENTIAL...THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION IS
RATHER LOW AND BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL SO NO EXPECTING ANY
THUNDER. EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS FROM SPC/LOCAL-
WRF/HRRR STILL ADVERTISE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE-ISOLATED
POPS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS TO AROUND 80F FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING. THE
SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE MUGGY
INDEED AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FORECAST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
ARE RATHER HIGH AND CONSISTENT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FOR
THE REGION. SBCAPES CLIMB AT OR ABOVE 2K J/KG...PWATS UP TO 2
INCHES...BULK SHEARS OF 30-40KTS AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT
COINCIDES WITH THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE REGION. LOCAL
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL WINDS UP THE HUDSON RIVER COULD ASSIST WITH
ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR A FEW OF THESE CELLS TO
EXHIBIT POTENTIAL ROTATION. NEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS REGION WHERE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY AND CUT DOWN ON THE INSOLATION.

THE COLD FRONT IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY WITH FROPA AS WE WILL TIME
A DECREASE IN POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL USHER IN DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. IN FACT...H850 TEMPS DROP NEAR 10C
DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DACKS TO MID 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKS AND NW CT.

ON THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTHEAST
LEAVING BEHIND A VERY DRY MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB H800 AND STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCT CU TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING IN
THE 70S AND SOME UPPER 60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
/HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S/. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SITUATED NORTH OF THE REGION OVER QUEBEC.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US FROM CANADA.
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A MOIST FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTH...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR SAT
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE BEST CHC WILL BE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFTS
BACK INTO CANADA TOWARDS MID WEEK...ENDING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION WITH
JUST A FEW PATCHES OF SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS PASSING
OVER THE AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THAN RECENT NIGHTS...SOME IFR RADIATIONAL FOG WILL DEVELOP
AT KGFL/KPSF.  THIS FOG WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE...ENOUGH OF A T/TD
SPREAD SHOULD PREVENT ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE.
SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT
DIURNAL CU. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD
PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A HOT
AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING...BECOMING
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KBTV 220730
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE. BEHIND THE FRONT...A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...ANOTHER MAINLY SUNNY AND WARM DAY ON TAP
FOR THE REGION AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
SHOULD FOSTER BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE...SO LOOKING AT ONLY A FEW
FAIR WX SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH NIL POPS. MODEL AVERAGED 18-00Z 925 MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW SPOT L90S IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.
WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WX CONTINUES TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST AND OFFSHORE...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR
WEST MAY TEND TO SPREAD SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES LATER AT NIGHT...BUT OUTSIDE A STRAY SLV SHOWER
TOWARD SUNRISE WE`LL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. LOWS CONTINUE MILD
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOCALLY NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

BRIEF...THOUGH ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN DEVELOPS DURING
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
MAKES STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA. DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILES
AND AMPLE PBL INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.
PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND MORNING SHOWERS MAY LIMIT THREAT ACROSS THE
SLV AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT SUCH SUBTLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WILL BE ALLOWED TO PLAY OUT AND HAVE MENTIONED THIS
THREAT IN ALL AREAS FOR NOW...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT TO SPC SWODY2.
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS (PWATS TO NEAR 2") APPEAR TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL A LESSER CONCERN GIVEN DEEPER WCD
VALUES AND WBZ HEIGHTS ABOVE 11 KFT. CONVECTIVE MODE WOULD BE LINEAR
WITH POSSBL QLCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH THE PBL. ALSO CAN`T
RULE OUT LOCALIZED HYDRO CONCERNS GIVEN THE WCD DEPTHS AND HIGH PWAT
VALUES...BUT WIND FIELDS APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY MOVING ALONG AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDS MOST WATERSHEDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THINGS OK.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SFC FRONT CLEARS EAST AND SOUTH WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ENDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN VT COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT OR
SO AND SKIES GRADUALLY TRENDING PC/CLR ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
LOWS A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE...MAINLY 50S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST/SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT UNDER BASE OF MEAN ERN
CANADA UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH. UPWARD MOISTURE FLUXES FROM PRIOR
EVENING`S RAINFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG JULY SUN SHOULD LEAD TO
DECENT COVERAGE OF FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...ALL AND ALL A VERY NICE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES AS HIGHS RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL TREND DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH SITUATED NORTH OF THE BORDER WHICH WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY AND RELATIVELY CLEAR
NIGHTS. AS THE FLOW TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY TO
WEST/NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE DACKS AND GREENS...BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME
WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

CONDITIONS TURN A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS WE MOVE INTO THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH RETROGRADING WESTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEPENING OVER TIME. THIS WILL MARK A
RETURN OF MID/UPPER MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RENEWING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS LOOK
PRETTY MEAGER SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT...JUST
SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ONLY ABNORMAL
DAY WILL BE THURSDAY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
ONLY IN THE 70S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT TOUCH INTO THE
40S FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...IFR TO VLIFR FOG/MIST AT SLK AND
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING AT MPV...OTHERWISE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. AREA OF SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF VERMONT WILL HELP DELAY MIST OR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT MPV
UNTIL AFTER 08Z WHEN THOSE CLOUDS BEGIN TO THIN OUT/MOVE EAST.
BUILDING UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT LIKELY TO
SUPPRESS AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT AT MPV/SLK IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO TERRAIN. WILL START TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS
TOWARDS TUESDAY EVENING PARTICULARLY AT MSS AND SLK. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY TUESDAY GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED - 12Z WED...VFR THOUGH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. POSSIBLE
MARGINAL LLWS AT MSS AS WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH
TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO







000
FXUS61 KBTV 220730
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE. BEHIND THE FRONT...A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...ANOTHER MAINLY SUNNY AND WARM DAY ON TAP
FOR THE REGION AS DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
SHOULD FOSTER BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE...SO LOOKING AT ONLY A FEW
FAIR WX SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH NIL POPS. MODEL AVERAGED 18-00Z 925 MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW SPOT L90S IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.
WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUIET WX CONTINUES TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST AND OFFSHORE...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR
WEST MAY TEND TO SPREAD SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES LATER AT NIGHT...BUT OUTSIDE A STRAY SLV SHOWER
TOWARD SUNRISE WE`LL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. LOWS CONTINUE MILD
GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOCALLY NEAR 70F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

BRIEF...THOUGH ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN DEVELOPS DURING
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
MAKES STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA. DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILES
AND AMPLE PBL INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.
PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND MORNING SHOWERS MAY LIMIT THREAT ACROSS THE
SLV AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT SUCH SUBTLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WILL BE ALLOWED TO PLAY OUT AND HAVE MENTIONED THIS
THREAT IN ALL AREAS FOR NOW...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT TO SPC SWODY2.
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS (PWATS TO NEAR 2") APPEAR TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL A LESSER CONCERN GIVEN DEEPER WCD
VALUES AND WBZ HEIGHTS ABOVE 11 KFT. CONVECTIVE MODE WOULD BE LINEAR
WITH POSSBL QLCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH THE PBL. ALSO CAN`T
RULE OUT LOCALIZED HYDRO CONCERNS GIVEN THE WCD DEPTHS AND HIGH PWAT
VALUES...BUT WIND FIELDS APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY MOVING ALONG AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDS MOST WATERSHEDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THINGS OK.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SFC FRONT CLEARS EAST AND SOUTH WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ENDING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN VT COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT OR
SO AND SKIES GRADUALLY TRENDING PC/CLR ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
LOWS A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE...MAINLY 50S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST/SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT UNDER BASE OF MEAN ERN
CANADA UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH. UPWARD MOISTURE FLUXES FROM PRIOR
EVENING`S RAINFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG JULY SUN SHOULD LEAD TO
DECENT COVERAGE OF FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER...ALL AND ALL A VERY NICE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES AS HIGHS RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL TREND DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH SITUATED NORTH OF THE BORDER WHICH WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY AND RELATIVELY CLEAR
NIGHTS. AS THE FLOW TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY TO
WEST/NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE DACKS AND GREENS...BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME
WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

CONDITIONS TURN A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS WE MOVE INTO THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH RETROGRADING WESTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEPENING OVER TIME. THIS WILL MARK A
RETURN OF MID/UPPER MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RENEWING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS LOOK
PRETTY MEAGER SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT...JUST
SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ONLY ABNORMAL
DAY WILL BE THURSDAY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
ONLY IN THE 70S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT TOUCH INTO THE
40S FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...IFR TO VLIFR FOG/MIST AT SLK AND
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING AT MPV...OTHERWISE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. AREA OF SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF VERMONT WILL HELP DELAY MIST OR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT MPV
UNTIL AFTER 08Z WHEN THOSE CLOUDS BEGIN TO THIN OUT/MOVE EAST.
BUILDING UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT LIKELY TO
SUPPRESS AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT AT MPV/SLK IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO TERRAIN. WILL START TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS
TOWARDS TUESDAY EVENING PARTICULARLY AT MSS AND SLK. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY TUESDAY GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED - 12Z WED...VFR THOUGH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. POSSIBLE
MARGINAL LLWS AT MSS AS WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH
TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO






000
FXUS61 KALY 220544
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING
SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A GOOD  CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM...SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AS EXPECTED. SO IT SHOULD
BE DRY ACROSS ALL OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER-MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL SUGGEST A DECENT MID LEVEL CAP ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...BUT LIKE TODAY WHEN ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPED UP...CAN/T
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN SO HAVE FORECAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN MOST AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

VERY WARM AND HUMID TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
ALTHOUGH SKIES SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR IN MANY AREAS...A GOOD
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING VERY MUCH AND HAVE
FORECAST LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

STILL DRY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT...DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING...OR HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AND
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE
TO LIKELY LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MID AFTN...LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE AFTN...AND LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT POPS ARE ONLY SLOWLY
FORECAST TO DECREASE BECAUSE MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM OUR AREA AND INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE DAY...SO WILL HOLD ON TO CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP NOTICEABLY BY LATE THURSDAY...WITH A
NORTHERLY FLOW FROM CANADA PROVIDING THE DRIER AIR.

GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
FRIDAY...BUT ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY POPS FOR NOW. THERE WILL BE A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME OVER THE AREA...SO DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO POP UP.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS CONTINUED DRY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...AS A CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND TAKE UP
RESIDENCE NEXT WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...CONTINUED DIFFLUENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A POTENTIAL QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED THREAT OF
CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION WITH
JUST A FEW PATCHES OF SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS PASSING
OVER THE AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THAN RECENT NIGHTS...SOME IFR RADIATIONAL FOG WILL DEVELOP
AT KGFL/KPSF.  THIS FOG WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE...ENOUGH OF A T/TD
SPREAD SHOULD PREVENT ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE.
SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT
DIURNAL CU. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD
PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ON TUESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL ENTRENCHED IN A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

WITH HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...FRUGIS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 220544
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING
SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A GOOD  CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM...SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AS EXPECTED. SO IT SHOULD
BE DRY ACROSS ALL OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER-MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL SUGGEST A DECENT MID LEVEL CAP ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...BUT LIKE TODAY WHEN ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPED UP...CAN/T
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN SO HAVE FORECAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN MOST AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

VERY WARM AND HUMID TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
ALTHOUGH SKIES SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR IN MANY AREAS...A GOOD
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING VERY MUCH AND HAVE
FORECAST LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

STILL DRY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT...DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING...OR HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AND
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE
TO LIKELY LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MID AFTN...LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE AFTN...AND LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT POPS ARE ONLY SLOWLY
FORECAST TO DECREASE BECAUSE MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM OUR AREA AND INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE DAY...SO WILL HOLD ON TO CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP NOTICEABLY BY LATE THURSDAY...WITH A
NORTHERLY FLOW FROM CANADA PROVIDING THE DRIER AIR.

GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
FRIDAY...BUT ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY POPS FOR NOW. THERE WILL BE A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME OVER THE AREA...SO DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO POP UP.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS CONTINUED DRY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...AS A CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND TAKE UP
RESIDENCE NEXT WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...CONTINUED DIFFLUENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A POTENTIAL QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED THREAT OF
CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION WITH
JUST A FEW PATCHES OF SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS PASSING
OVER THE AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THAN RECENT NIGHTS...SOME IFR RADIATIONAL FOG WILL DEVELOP
AT KGFL/KPSF.  THIS FOG WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE...ENOUGH OF A T/TD
SPREAD SHOULD PREVENT ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE.
SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT
DIURNAL CU. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD
PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ON TUESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL ENTRENCHED IN A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

WITH HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...FRUGIS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 220544
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING
SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A GOOD  CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM...SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AS EXPECTED. SO IT SHOULD
BE DRY ACROSS ALL OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER-MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL SUGGEST A DECENT MID LEVEL CAP ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...BUT LIKE TODAY WHEN ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPED UP...CAN/T
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN SO HAVE FORECAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN MOST AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

VERY WARM AND HUMID TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
ALTHOUGH SKIES SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR IN MANY AREAS...A GOOD
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING VERY MUCH AND HAVE
FORECAST LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

STILL DRY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT...DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING...OR HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AND
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE
TO LIKELY LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MID AFTN...LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE AFTN...AND LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT POPS ARE ONLY SLOWLY
FORECAST TO DECREASE BECAUSE MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM OUR AREA AND INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE DAY...SO WILL HOLD ON TO CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP NOTICEABLY BY LATE THURSDAY...WITH A
NORTHERLY FLOW FROM CANADA PROVIDING THE DRIER AIR.

GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
FRIDAY...BUT ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY POPS FOR NOW. THERE WILL BE A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME OVER THE AREA...SO DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO POP UP.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS CONTINUED DRY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...AS A CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND TAKE UP
RESIDENCE NEXT WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...CONTINUED DIFFLUENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A POTENTIAL QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED THREAT OF
CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION WITH
JUST A FEW PATCHES OF SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS PASSING
OVER THE AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THAN RECENT NIGHTS...SOME IFR RADIATIONAL FOG WILL DEVELOP
AT KGFL/KPSF.  THIS FOG WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE...ENOUGH OF A T/TD
SPREAD SHOULD PREVENT ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE.
SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT
DIURNAL CU. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD
PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ON TUESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL ENTRENCHED IN A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

WITH HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...FRUGIS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 220544
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING
SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A GOOD  CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM...SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AS EXPECTED. SO IT SHOULD
BE DRY ACROSS ALL OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER-MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL SUGGEST A DECENT MID LEVEL CAP ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...BUT LIKE TODAY WHEN ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPED UP...CAN/T
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN SO HAVE FORECAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN MOST AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

VERY WARM AND HUMID TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
ALTHOUGH SKIES SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR IN MANY AREAS...A GOOD
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING VERY MUCH AND HAVE
FORECAST LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

STILL DRY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT...DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING...OR HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AND
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE
TO LIKELY LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MID AFTN...LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE AFTN...AND LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT POPS ARE ONLY SLOWLY
FORECAST TO DECREASE BECAUSE MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM OUR AREA AND INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE DAY...SO WILL HOLD ON TO CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP NOTICEABLY BY LATE THURSDAY...WITH A
NORTHERLY FLOW FROM CANADA PROVIDING THE DRIER AIR.

GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
FRIDAY...BUT ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY POPS FOR NOW. THERE WILL BE A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME OVER THE AREA...SO DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO POP UP.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS CONTINUED DRY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...AS A CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND TAKE UP
RESIDENCE NEXT WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...CONTINUED DIFFLUENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A POTENTIAL QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED THREAT OF
CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION WITH
JUST A FEW PATCHES OF SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS PASSING
OVER THE AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THAN RECENT NIGHTS...SOME IFR RADIATIONAL FOG WILL DEVELOP
AT KGFL/KPSF.  THIS FOG WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE...ENOUGH OF A T/TD
SPREAD SHOULD PREVENT ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE.
SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT
DIURNAL CU. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD
PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ON TUESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL ENTRENCHED IN A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

WITH HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...FRUGIS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 220526
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
126 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY REGION OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1034 PM EDT MONDAY...LAST OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IS DISSIPATING AT 0230Z ACROSS WRN RUTLAND
COUNTY...AND MAY BRING JUST A FEW SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...LOOKING
AT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW
STRATOCU/CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN A BIT HUMID
OVERNIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S. COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER 04Z ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 59-65F...WARMEST IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY CONTROLLED
BY LOCAL OROGRAPHIC FEATURES...AND LOCALLY REMAINING SOUTH AROUND
5-7 KTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 419 PM EDT MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
WARM AND INCREASING HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED. BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A MID LEVEL CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. TEMPERATURE WILL APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST AND MENTION SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG OVER EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. GFS MODELS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST IN BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND THE CANADIAN GEM GLOBAL ARE
SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. PREFER THE SLOWER NAM AND CANADIAN GEM MODELS ON THE
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES OF 30
TO 40 KNOTS. ALSO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 2 INCHES ON
WEDNESDAY...SO SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WET BULB ZERO VALUES RANGE FROM
11000-12000 FEET ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAIL DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. GIVEN INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WEDNESDAY EXPECTING MAINLY GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY
ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS AT THIS TIME...AS THESE
STORMS WILL BE IN THE 4TH PERIOD. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO WIND DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS MODELS
SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL TREND DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH SITUATED NORTH OF THE BORDER WHICH WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY AND RELATIVELY CLEAR
NIGHTS. AS THE FLOW TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY TO
WEST/NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE DACKS AND GREENS...BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME
WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

CONDITIONS TURN A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS WE MOVE INTO THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH RETROGRADING WESTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEPENING OVER TIME. THIS WILL MARK A
RETURN OF MID/UPPER MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RENEWING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS LOOK
PRETTY MEAGER SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT...JUST
SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ONLY ABNORMAL
DAY WILL BE THURSDAY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
ONLY IN THE 70S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT TOUCH INTO THE
40S FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...IFR TO VLIFR FOG/MIST AT SLK AND
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING AT MPV...OTHERWISE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. AREA OF SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF VERMONT WILL HELP DELAY MIST OR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT MPV
UNTIL AFTER 08Z WHEN THOSE CLOUDS BEGIN TO THIN OUT/MOVE EAST.
BUILDING UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT LIKELY TO
SUPPRESS AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT AT MPV/SLK IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO TERRAIN. WILL START TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS
TOWARDS TUESDAY EVENING PARTICULARLY AT MSS AND SLK. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY TUESDAY GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED - 12Z WED...VFR THOUGH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. POSSIBLE
MARGINAL LLWS AT MSS AS WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH
TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO







000
FXUS61 KBTV 220526
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
126 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY REGION OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1034 PM EDT MONDAY...LAST OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IS DISSIPATING AT 0230Z ACROSS WRN RUTLAND
COUNTY...AND MAY BRING JUST A FEW SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...LOOKING
AT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW
STRATOCU/CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN A BIT HUMID
OVERNIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S. COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER 04Z ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 59-65F...WARMEST IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY CONTROLLED
BY LOCAL OROGRAPHIC FEATURES...AND LOCALLY REMAINING SOUTH AROUND
5-7 KTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 419 PM EDT MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
WARM AND INCREASING HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED. BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A MID LEVEL CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. TEMPERATURE WILL APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST AND MENTION SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG OVER EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. GFS MODELS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST IN BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND THE CANADIAN GEM GLOBAL ARE
SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. PREFER THE SLOWER NAM AND CANADIAN GEM MODELS ON THE
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES OF 30
TO 40 KNOTS. ALSO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 2 INCHES ON
WEDNESDAY...SO SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WET BULB ZERO VALUES RANGE FROM
11000-12000 FEET ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAIL DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. GIVEN INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WEDNESDAY EXPECTING MAINLY GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY
ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS AT THIS TIME...AS THESE
STORMS WILL BE IN THE 4TH PERIOD. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO WIND DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS MODELS
SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL TREND DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH SITUATED NORTH OF THE BORDER WHICH WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY AND RELATIVELY CLEAR
NIGHTS. AS THE FLOW TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY TO
WEST/NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE DACKS AND GREENS...BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME
WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

CONDITIONS TURN A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS WE MOVE INTO THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH RETROGRADING WESTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEPENING OVER TIME. THIS WILL MARK A
RETURN OF MID/UPPER MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RENEWING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS LOOK
PRETTY MEAGER SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT...JUST
SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ONLY ABNORMAL
DAY WILL BE THURSDAY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
ONLY IN THE 70S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT TOUCH INTO THE
40S FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...IFR TO VLIFR FOG/MIST AT SLK AND
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING AT MPV...OTHERWISE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. AREA OF SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF VERMONT WILL HELP DELAY MIST OR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT MPV
UNTIL AFTER 08Z WHEN THOSE CLOUDS BEGIN TO THIN OUT/MOVE EAST.
BUILDING UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT LIKELY TO
SUPPRESS AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT AT MPV/SLK IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO TERRAIN. WILL START TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS
TOWARDS TUESDAY EVENING PARTICULARLY AT MSS AND SLK. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY TUESDAY GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED - 12Z WED...VFR THOUGH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. POSSIBLE
MARGINAL LLWS AT MSS AS WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH
TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO







000
FXUS61 KBTV 220526
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
126 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY REGION OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1034 PM EDT MONDAY...LAST OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IS DISSIPATING AT 0230Z ACROSS WRN RUTLAND
COUNTY...AND MAY BRING JUST A FEW SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...LOOKING
AT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW
STRATOCU/CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN A BIT HUMID
OVERNIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S. COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER 04Z ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 59-65F...WARMEST IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY CONTROLLED
BY LOCAL OROGRAPHIC FEATURES...AND LOCALLY REMAINING SOUTH AROUND
5-7 KTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 419 PM EDT MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
WARM AND INCREASING HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED. BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A MID LEVEL CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. TEMPERATURE WILL APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST AND MENTION SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG OVER EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. GFS MODELS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST IN BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND THE CANADIAN GEM GLOBAL ARE
SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. PREFER THE SLOWER NAM AND CANADIAN GEM MODELS ON THE
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES OF 30
TO 40 KNOTS. ALSO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 2 INCHES ON
WEDNESDAY...SO SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WET BULB ZERO VALUES RANGE FROM
11000-12000 FEET ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAIL DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. GIVEN INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WEDNESDAY EXPECTING MAINLY GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY
ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS AT THIS TIME...AS THESE
STORMS WILL BE IN THE 4TH PERIOD. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO WIND DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS MODELS
SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL TREND DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH SITUATED NORTH OF THE BORDER WHICH WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY AND RELATIVELY CLEAR
NIGHTS. AS THE FLOW TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY TO
WEST/NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE DACKS AND GREENS...BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME
WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

CONDITIONS TURN A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS WE MOVE INTO THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH RETROGRADING WESTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEPENING OVER TIME. THIS WILL MARK A
RETURN OF MID/UPPER MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RENEWING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS LOOK
PRETTY MEAGER SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT...JUST
SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ONLY ABNORMAL
DAY WILL BE THURSDAY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
ONLY IN THE 70S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT TOUCH INTO THE
40S FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...IFR TO VLIFR FOG/MIST AT SLK AND
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING AT MPV...OTHERWISE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. AREA OF SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF VERMONT WILL HELP DELAY MIST OR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT MPV
UNTIL AFTER 08Z WHEN THOSE CLOUDS BEGIN TO THIN OUT/MOVE EAST.
BUILDING UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT LIKELY TO
SUPPRESS AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT AT MPV/SLK IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO TERRAIN. WILL START TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS
TOWARDS TUESDAY EVENING PARTICULARLY AT MSS AND SLK. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY TUESDAY GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED - 12Z WED...VFR THOUGH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. POSSIBLE
MARGINAL LLWS AT MSS AS WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH
TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO







000
FXUS61 KBTV 220526
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
126 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY REGION OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1034 PM EDT MONDAY...LAST OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IS DISSIPATING AT 0230Z ACROSS WRN RUTLAND
COUNTY...AND MAY BRING JUST A FEW SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...LOOKING
AT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW
STRATOCU/CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN A BIT HUMID
OVERNIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S. COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER 04Z ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 59-65F...WARMEST IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY CONTROLLED
BY LOCAL OROGRAPHIC FEATURES...AND LOCALLY REMAINING SOUTH AROUND
5-7 KTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 419 PM EDT MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
WARM AND INCREASING HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED. BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A MID LEVEL CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. TEMPERATURE WILL APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST AND MENTION SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG OVER EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. GFS MODELS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST IN BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND THE CANADIAN GEM GLOBAL ARE
SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. PREFER THE SLOWER NAM AND CANADIAN GEM MODELS ON THE
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES OF 30
TO 40 KNOTS. ALSO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 2 INCHES ON
WEDNESDAY...SO SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WET BULB ZERO VALUES RANGE FROM
11000-12000 FEET ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAIL DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. GIVEN INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WEDNESDAY EXPECTING MAINLY GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY
ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS AT THIS TIME...AS THESE
STORMS WILL BE IN THE 4TH PERIOD. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO WIND DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS MODELS
SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL TREND DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH SITUATED NORTH OF THE BORDER WHICH WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY AND RELATIVELY CLEAR
NIGHTS. AS THE FLOW TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY TO
WEST/NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE DACKS AND GREENS...BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME
WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

CONDITIONS TURN A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS WE MOVE INTO THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH RETROGRADING WESTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEPENING OVER TIME. THIS WILL MARK A
RETURN OF MID/UPPER MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RENEWING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS LOOK
PRETTY MEAGER SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT...JUST
SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ONLY ABNORMAL
DAY WILL BE THURSDAY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
ONLY IN THE 70S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT TOUCH INTO THE
40S FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...IFR TO VLIFR FOG/MIST AT SLK AND
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING AT MPV...OTHERWISE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. AREA OF SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF VERMONT WILL HELP DELAY MIST OR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT MPV
UNTIL AFTER 08Z WHEN THOSE CLOUDS BEGIN TO THIN OUT/MOVE EAST.
BUILDING UPPER RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT LIKELY TO
SUPPRESS AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT AT MPV/SLK IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO TERRAIN. WILL START TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS
TOWARDS TUESDAY EVENING PARTICULARLY AT MSS AND SLK. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY TUESDAY GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WED - 12Z WED...VFR THOUGH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. POSSIBLE
MARGINAL LLWS AT MSS AS WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH
TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM/LOCONTO







000
FXUS61 KALY 220250
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1050 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING
SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A GOOD  CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1050 PM...THERE REMAINS JUST TWO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY...SO WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THERE. OTHERWISE SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED
AS EXPECTED. BY MIDNIGHT...IT SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS ALL OF EAST
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL SUGGEST A DECENT MID LEVEL CAP ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...BUT LIKE TODAY WHEN ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPED UP...CAN/T
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN SO HAVE FORECAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN MOST AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

VERY WARM AND HUMID TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
ALTHOUGH SKIES SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR IN MANY AREAS...A GOOD
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING VERY MUCH AND HAVE
FORECAST LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

STILL DRY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT...DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING...OR HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AND
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE
TO LIKELY LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MID AFTN...LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE AFTN...AND LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT POPS ARE ONLY SLOWLY
FORECAST TO DECREASE BECAUSE MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM OUR AREA AND INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE DAY...SO WILL HOLD ON TO CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP NOTICEABLY BY LATE THURSDAY...WITH A
NORTHERLY FLOW FROM CANADA PROVIDING THE DRIER AIR.

GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
FRIDAY...BUT ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY POPS FOR NOW. THERE WILL BE A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME OVER THE AREA...SO DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO POP UP.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS CONTINUED DRY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...AS A CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND TAKE UP
RESIDENCE NEXT WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...CONTINUED DIFFLUENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A POTENTIAL QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED THREAT OF
CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER DARK...BUT THESE
SHOWERS ARE NOT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF
TERMINALS ANYWAY. TONIGHT THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
FOR FOG FORMATION AT KGFL/KPSF THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO
EXPECTED CLEARING SKIES AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS. SO WILL
MENTION MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS STARTING LATE THIS EVENING OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG AT KALB/KPOU WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 11Z-12Z TUESDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING. JUST A FEW CU IN VFR RANGE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ONLY ABOUT
A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A POP UP SHRA/TSRA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SO COVERAGE TOO SPARSE TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AROUND 6-7 KT ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ON TUESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL ENTRENCHED IN A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

WITH HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM








000
FXUS61 KALY 220250
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1050 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING
SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A GOOD  CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1050 PM...THERE REMAINS JUST TWO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY...SO WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THERE. OTHERWISE SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED
AS EXPECTED. BY MIDNIGHT...IT SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS ALL OF EAST
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL SUGGEST A DECENT MID LEVEL CAP ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...BUT LIKE TODAY WHEN ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPED UP...CAN/T
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN SO HAVE FORECAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN MOST AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

VERY WARM AND HUMID TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
ALTHOUGH SKIES SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR IN MANY AREAS...A GOOD
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING VERY MUCH AND HAVE
FORECAST LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

STILL DRY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT...DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING...OR HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AND
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE
TO LIKELY LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MID AFTN...LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE AFTN...AND LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT POPS ARE ONLY SLOWLY
FORECAST TO DECREASE BECAUSE MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM OUR AREA AND INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE DAY...SO WILL HOLD ON TO CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP NOTICEABLY BY LATE THURSDAY...WITH A
NORTHERLY FLOW FROM CANADA PROVIDING THE DRIER AIR.

GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
FRIDAY...BUT ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY POPS FOR NOW. THERE WILL BE A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME OVER THE AREA...SO DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO POP UP.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS CONTINUED DRY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...AS A CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND TAKE UP
RESIDENCE NEXT WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...CONTINUED DIFFLUENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A POTENTIAL QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED THREAT OF
CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER DARK...BUT THESE
SHOWERS ARE NOT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF
TERMINALS ANYWAY. TONIGHT THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
FOR FOG FORMATION AT KGFL/KPSF THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO
EXPECTED CLEARING SKIES AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS. SO WILL
MENTION MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS STARTING LATE THIS EVENING OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG AT KALB/KPOU WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 11Z-12Z TUESDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING. JUST A FEW CU IN VFR RANGE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ONLY ABOUT
A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A POP UP SHRA/TSRA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SO COVERAGE TOO SPARSE TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AROUND 6-7 KT ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ON TUESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL ENTRENCHED IN A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

WITH HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 220240
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1040 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY REGION OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1034 PM EDT MONDAY...LAST OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IS DISSIPATING AT 0230Z ACROSS WRN RUTLAND
COUNTY...AND MAY BRING JUST A FEW SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...LOOKING
AT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW
STRATOCU/CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN A BIT HUMID
OVERNIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S. COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER 04Z ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 59-65F...WARMEST IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY CONTROLLED
BY LOCAL OROGRAPHIC FEATURES...AND LOCALLY REMAINING SOUTH AROUND
5-7 KTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 419 PM EDT MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
WARM AND INCREASING HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED. BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A MID LEVEL CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. TEMPERATURE WILL APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST AND MENTION SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG OVER EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. GFS MODELS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST IN BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND THE CANADIAN GEM GLOBAL ARE
SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. PREFER THE SLOWER NAM AND CANADIAN GEM MODELS ON THE
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES OF 30
TO 40 KNOTS. ALSO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 2 INCHES ON
WEDNESDAY...SO SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WET BULB ZERO VALUES RANGE FROM
11000-12000 FEET ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAIL DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. GIVEN INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WEDNESDAY EXPECTING MAINLY GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY
ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS AT THIS TIME...AS THESE
STORMS WILL BE IN THE 4TH PERIOD. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO WIND DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS MODELS
SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL TREND DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH SITUATED NORTH OF THE BORDER WHICH WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY AND RELATIVELY CLEAR
NIGHTS. AS THE FLOW TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY TO
WEST/NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE DACKS AND GREENS...BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME
WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

CONDITIONS TURN A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS WE MOVE INTO THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH RETROGRADING WESTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEPENING OVER TIME. THIS WILL MARK A
RETURN OF MID/UPPER MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RENEWING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS LOOK
PRETTY MEAGER SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT...JUST
SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ONLY ABNORMAL
DAY WILL BE THURSDAY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
ONLY IN THE 70S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT TOUCH INTO THE
40S FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEAR TO
FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THROUGH TUESDAY MID-MORNING. WINDS SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AS WELL...BECOMING LGT TO CALM. WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL REBUILD OVER THE TERRAIN
TUESDAY MID TO LATE MORNING...AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE S/SW
AT 5-10KTS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z WED...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH
TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM






000
FXUS61 KBTV 220240
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1040 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY REGION OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1034 PM EDT MONDAY...LAST OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IS DISSIPATING AT 0230Z ACROSS WRN RUTLAND
COUNTY...AND MAY BRING JUST A FEW SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...LOOKING
AT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW
STRATOCU/CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN A BIT HUMID
OVERNIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S. COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER 04Z ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 59-65F...WARMEST IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY CONTROLLED
BY LOCAL OROGRAPHIC FEATURES...AND LOCALLY REMAINING SOUTH AROUND
5-7 KTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 419 PM EDT MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
WARM AND INCREASING HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED. BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A MID LEVEL CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. TEMPERATURE WILL APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST AND MENTION SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG OVER EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. GFS MODELS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST IN BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND THE CANADIAN GEM GLOBAL ARE
SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. PREFER THE SLOWER NAM AND CANADIAN GEM MODELS ON THE
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES OF 30
TO 40 KNOTS. ALSO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 2 INCHES ON
WEDNESDAY...SO SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WET BULB ZERO VALUES RANGE FROM
11000-12000 FEET ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAIL DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. GIVEN INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WEDNESDAY EXPECTING MAINLY GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY
ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS AT THIS TIME...AS THESE
STORMS WILL BE IN THE 4TH PERIOD. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO WIND DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS MODELS
SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL TREND DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH SITUATED NORTH OF THE BORDER WHICH WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY AND RELATIVELY CLEAR
NIGHTS. AS THE FLOW TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY TO
WEST/NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE DACKS AND GREENS...BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME
WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

CONDITIONS TURN A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS WE MOVE INTO THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH RETROGRADING WESTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEPENING OVER TIME. THIS WILL MARK A
RETURN OF MID/UPPER MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RENEWING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS LOOK
PRETTY MEAGER SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT...JUST
SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ONLY ABNORMAL
DAY WILL BE THURSDAY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
ONLY IN THE 70S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT TOUCH INTO THE
40S FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEAR TO
FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THROUGH TUESDAY MID-MORNING. WINDS SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AS WELL...BECOMING LGT TO CALM. WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL REBUILD OVER THE TERRAIN
TUESDAY MID TO LATE MORNING...AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE S/SW
AT 5-10KTS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z WED...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH
TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 212350
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
750 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY REGION OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 746 PM EDT MONDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS...WHICH DEVELOPED WITH PEAK AFTERNOON
HEATING OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...ARE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE WITH
ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING CYCLE AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATED OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS BY 01Z. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER 04Z ACROSS THE
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT. OTHERWISE...RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN
PLACE WITH SCATTERED STRATOCU AND CIRRUS CLOUDS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 58-64F...WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 419 PM EDT MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
WARM AND INCREASING HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED. BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A MID LEVEL CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. TEMPERATURE WILL APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST AND MENTION SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG OVER EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. GFS MODELS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST IN BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND THE CANADIAN GEM GLOBAL ARE
SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. PREFER THE SLOWER NAM AND CANADIAN GEM MODELS ON THE
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES OF 30
TO 40 KNOTS. ALSO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 2 INCHES ON
WEDNESDAY...SO SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WET BULB ZERO VALUES RANGE FROM
11000-12000 FEET ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAIL DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. GIVEN INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WEDNESDAY EXPECTING MAINLY GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY
ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS AT THIS TIME...AS THESE
STORMS WILL BE IN THE 4TH PERIOD. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO WIND DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS MODELS
SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL TREND DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH SITUATED NORTH OF THE BORDER WHICH WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY AND RELATIVELY CLEAR
NIGHTS. AS THE FLOW TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY TO
WEST/NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE DACKS AND GREENS...BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME
WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

CONDITIONS TURN A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS WE MOVE INTO THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH RETROGRADING WESTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEPENING OVER TIME. THIS WILL MARK A
RETURN OF MID/UPPER MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RENEWING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS LOOK
PRETTY MEAGER SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT...JUST
SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ONLY ABNORMAL
DAY WILL BE THURSDAY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
ONLY IN THE 70S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT TOUCH INTO THE
40S FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEAR TO
FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THROUGH TUESDAY MID-MORNING. WINDS SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AS WELL...BECOMING LGT TO CALM. WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL REBUILD OVER THE TERRAIN
TUESDAY MID TO LATE MORNING...AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE S/SW
AT 5-10KTS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z WED...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH
TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 212350
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
750 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY REGION OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 746 PM EDT MONDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS...WHICH DEVELOPED WITH PEAK AFTERNOON
HEATING OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...ARE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE WITH
ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING CYCLE AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATED OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS BY 01Z. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER 04Z ACROSS THE
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT. OTHERWISE...RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN
PLACE WITH SCATTERED STRATOCU AND CIRRUS CLOUDS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 58-64F...WARMEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 419 PM EDT MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
WARM AND INCREASING HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED. BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A MID LEVEL CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. TEMPERATURE WILL APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST AND MENTION SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG OVER EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. GFS MODELS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST IN BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND THE CANADIAN GEM GLOBAL ARE
SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. PREFER THE SLOWER NAM AND CANADIAN GEM MODELS ON THE
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES OF 30
TO 40 KNOTS. ALSO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 2 INCHES ON
WEDNESDAY...SO SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WET BULB ZERO VALUES RANGE FROM
11000-12000 FEET ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAIL DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. GIVEN INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WEDNESDAY EXPECTING MAINLY GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY
ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS AT THIS TIME...AS THESE
STORMS WILL BE IN THE 4TH PERIOD. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO WIND DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS MODELS
SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL TREND DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH SITUATED NORTH OF THE BORDER WHICH WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY AND RELATIVELY CLEAR
NIGHTS. AS THE FLOW TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY TO
WEST/NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE DACKS AND GREENS...BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME
WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

CONDITIONS TURN A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS WE MOVE INTO THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH RETROGRADING WESTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEPENING OVER TIME. THIS WILL MARK A
RETURN OF MID/UPPER MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RENEWING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS LOOK
PRETTY MEAGER SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT...JUST
SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ONLY ABNORMAL
DAY WILL BE THURSDAY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
ONLY IN THE 70S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT TOUCH INTO THE
40S FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEAR TO
FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THROUGH TUESDAY MID-MORNING. WINDS SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AS WELL...BECOMING LGT TO CALM. WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL REBUILD OVER THE TERRAIN
TUESDAY MID TO LATE MORNING...AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE S/SW
AT 5-10KTS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z WED...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH
TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM






000
FXUS61 KALY 212345
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
745 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING
SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A GOOD  CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 745 PM...THERE ARE STILL ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MAINLY NEAR THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...SOUTHEAST ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN CATSKILLS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY THROUGH DARK. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF SHOWERS
NEAR THE FINGER LAKES REGION RESULTING FROM LAKE BREEZE
INTERACTION SHOULD NOT BE ABLE TO SURVIVE AS THEY SLOWLY MOVE EAST
TONIGHT...SO WILL FORECAST DRY CONDITIONS IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL SUGGEST A DECENT MID LEVEL CAP ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...BUT LIKE TODAY WHEN ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPED UP...CAN/T
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN SO HAVE FORECAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN MOST AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

VERY WARM AND HUMID TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
ALTHOUGH SKIES SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR IN MANY AREAS...A GOOD
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING VERY MUCH AND HAVE
FORECAST LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

STILL DRY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT...DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING...OR HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AND
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE
TO LIKELY LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MID AFTN...LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE AFTN...AND LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT POPS ARE ONLY SLOWLY
FORECAST TO DECREASE BECAUSE MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM OUR AREA AND INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE DAY...SO WILL HOLD ON TO CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP NOTICEABLY BY LATE THURSDAY...WITH A
NORTHERLY FLOW FROM CANADA PROVIDING THE DRIER AIR.

GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
FRIDAY...BUT ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY POPS FOR NOW. THERE WILL BE A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME OVER THE AREA...SO DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO POP UP.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS CONTINUED DRY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...AS A CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND TAKE UP
RESIDENCE NEXT WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...CONTINUED DIFFLUENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A POTENTIAL QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED THREAT OF
CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER DARK...BUT THESE
SHOWERS ARE NOT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF
TERMINALS ANYWAY. TONIGHT THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
FOR FOG FORMATION AT KGFL/KPSF THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO
EXPECTED CLEARING SKIES AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS. SO WILL
MENTION MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS STARTING LATE THIS EVENING OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG AT KALB/KPOU WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 11Z-12Z TUESDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING. JUST A FEW CU IN VFR RANGE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ONLY ABOUT
A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A POP UP SHRA/TSRA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SO COVERAGE TOO SPARSE TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AROUND 6-7 KT ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ON TUESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL ENTRENCHED IN A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

WITH HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM








000
FXUS61 KALY 212345
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
745 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING
SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A GOOD  CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 745 PM...THERE ARE STILL ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MAINLY NEAR THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...SOUTHEAST ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN CATSKILLS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY THROUGH DARK. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF SHOWERS
NEAR THE FINGER LAKES REGION RESULTING FROM LAKE BREEZE
INTERACTION SHOULD NOT BE ABLE TO SURVIVE AS THEY SLOWLY MOVE EAST
TONIGHT...SO WILL FORECAST DRY CONDITIONS IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL SUGGEST A DECENT MID LEVEL CAP ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...BUT LIKE TODAY WHEN ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPED UP...CAN/T
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN SO HAVE FORECAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN MOST AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

VERY WARM AND HUMID TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
ALTHOUGH SKIES SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR IN MANY AREAS...A GOOD
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING VERY MUCH AND HAVE
FORECAST LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

STILL DRY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT...DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING...OR HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AND
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE
TO LIKELY LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MID AFTN...LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE AFTN...AND LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT POPS ARE ONLY SLOWLY
FORECAST TO DECREASE BECAUSE MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM OUR AREA AND INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE DAY...SO WILL HOLD ON TO CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP NOTICEABLY BY LATE THURSDAY...WITH A
NORTHERLY FLOW FROM CANADA PROVIDING THE DRIER AIR.

GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
FRIDAY...BUT ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY POPS FOR NOW. THERE WILL BE A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME OVER THE AREA...SO DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO POP UP.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS CONTINUED DRY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...AS A CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND TAKE UP
RESIDENCE NEXT WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...CONTINUED DIFFLUENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A POTENTIAL QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED THREAT OF
CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER DARK...BUT THESE
SHOWERS ARE NOT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF
TERMINALS ANYWAY. TONIGHT THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
FOR FOG FORMATION AT KGFL/KPSF THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO
EXPECTED CLEARING SKIES AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS. SO WILL
MENTION MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS STARTING LATE THIS EVENING OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY FOG AT KALB/KPOU WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 11Z-12Z TUESDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING. JUST A FEW CU IN VFR RANGE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ONLY ABOUT
A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A POP UP SHRA/TSRA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SO COVERAGE TOO SPARSE TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AROUND 6-7 KT ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ON TUESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL ENTRENCHED IN A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

WITH HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 212326
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
726 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY REGION OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 419 PM EDT MONDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS
TIME. EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT AS CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. MODELS SHOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS RISING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HAVE INDICATED SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE
CONNECTICUT AND WHITE RIVER VALLEYS...AS THESE AREAS HAVE HAD FOG
THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 419 PM EDT MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
WARM AND INCREASING HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED. BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A MID LEVEL CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. TEMPERATURE WILL APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST AND MENTION SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG OVER EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. GFS MODELS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST IN BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND THE CANADIAN GEM GLOBAL ARE
SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. PREFER THE SLOWER NAM AND CANADIAN GEM MODELS ON THE
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES OF 30
TO 40 KNOTS. ALSO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 2 INCHES ON
WEDNESDAY...SO SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WET BULB ZERO VALUES RANGE FROM
11000-12000 FEET ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAIL DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. GIVEN INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WEDNESDAY EXPECTING MAINLY GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY
ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS AT THIS TIME...AS THESE
STORMS WILL BE IN THE 4TH PERIOD. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO WIND DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS MODELS
SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL TREND DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH SITUATED NORTH OF THE BORDER WHICH WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY AND RELATIVELY CLEAR
NIGHTS. AS THE FLOW TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY TO
WEST/NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE DACKS AND GREENS...BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME
WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

CONDITIONS TURN A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS WE MOVE INTO THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH RETROGRADING WESTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEPENING OVER TIME. THIS WILL MARK A
RETURN OF MID/UPPER MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RENEWING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS LOOK
PRETTY MEAGER SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT...JUST
SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ONLY ABNORMAL
DAY WILL BE THURSDAY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
ONLY IN THE 70S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT TOUCH INTO THE
40S FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEAR TO
FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THROUGH TUESDAY MID-MORNING. WINDS SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AS WELL...BECOMING LGT TO CALM. WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL REBUILD OVER THE TERRAIN
TUESDAY MID TO LATE MORNING...AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE S/SW
AT 5-10KTS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z WED...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH
TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 212326
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
726 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY REGION OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 419 PM EDT MONDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS
TIME. EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT AS CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. MODELS SHOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS RISING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HAVE INDICATED SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE
CONNECTICUT AND WHITE RIVER VALLEYS...AS THESE AREAS HAVE HAD FOG
THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 419 PM EDT MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
WARM AND INCREASING HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED. BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A MID LEVEL CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. TEMPERATURE WILL APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST AND MENTION SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG OVER EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. GFS MODELS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST IN BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND THE CANADIAN GEM GLOBAL ARE
SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. PREFER THE SLOWER NAM AND CANADIAN GEM MODELS ON THE
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES OF 30
TO 40 KNOTS. ALSO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 2 INCHES ON
WEDNESDAY...SO SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WET BULB ZERO VALUES RANGE FROM
11000-12000 FEET ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAIL DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. GIVEN INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WEDNESDAY EXPECTING MAINLY GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY
ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS AT THIS TIME...AS THESE
STORMS WILL BE IN THE 4TH PERIOD. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO WIND DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS MODELS
SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL TREND DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH SITUATED NORTH OF THE BORDER WHICH WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY AND RELATIVELY CLEAR
NIGHTS. AS THE FLOW TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY TO
WEST/NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE DACKS AND GREENS...BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME
WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

CONDITIONS TURN A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS WE MOVE INTO THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH RETROGRADING WESTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEPENING OVER TIME. THIS WILL MARK A
RETURN OF MID/UPPER MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RENEWING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS LOOK
PRETTY MEAGER SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT...JUST
SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ONLY ABNORMAL
DAY WILL BE THURSDAY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
ONLY IN THE 70S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT TOUCH INTO THE
40S FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEAR TO
FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THROUGH TUESDAY MID-MORNING. WINDS SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AS WELL...BECOMING LGT TO CALM. WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL REBUILD OVER THE TERRAIN
TUESDAY MID TO LATE MORNING...AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE S/SW
AT 5-10KTS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z WED...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH
TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 212326
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
726 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY REGION OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 419 PM EDT MONDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS
TIME. EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT AS CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. MODELS SHOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS RISING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HAVE INDICATED SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE
CONNECTICUT AND WHITE RIVER VALLEYS...AS THESE AREAS HAVE HAD FOG
THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 419 PM EDT MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
WARM AND INCREASING HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED. BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A MID LEVEL CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. TEMPERATURE WILL APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST AND MENTION SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG OVER EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. GFS MODELS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST IN BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND THE CANADIAN GEM GLOBAL ARE
SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. PREFER THE SLOWER NAM AND CANADIAN GEM MODELS ON THE
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES OF 30
TO 40 KNOTS. ALSO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 2 INCHES ON
WEDNESDAY...SO SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WET BULB ZERO VALUES RANGE FROM
11000-12000 FEET ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAIL DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. GIVEN INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WEDNESDAY EXPECTING MAINLY GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY
ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS AT THIS TIME...AS THESE
STORMS WILL BE IN THE 4TH PERIOD. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO WIND DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS MODELS
SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL TREND DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH SITUATED NORTH OF THE BORDER WHICH WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY AND RELATIVELY CLEAR
NIGHTS. AS THE FLOW TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY TO
WEST/NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE DACKS AND GREENS...BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME
WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

CONDITIONS TURN A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS WE MOVE INTO THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH RETROGRADING WESTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEPENING OVER TIME. THIS WILL MARK A
RETURN OF MID/UPPER MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RENEWING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS LOOK
PRETTY MEAGER SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT...JUST
SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ONLY ABNORMAL
DAY WILL BE THURSDAY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
ONLY IN THE 70S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT TOUCH INTO THE
40S FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEAR TO
FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THROUGH TUESDAY MID-MORNING. WINDS SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AS WELL...BECOMING LGT TO CALM. WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL REBUILD OVER THE TERRAIN
TUESDAY MID TO LATE MORNING...AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE S/SW
AT 5-10KTS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z WED...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH
TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 212326
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
726 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY REGION OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 419 PM EDT MONDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS
TIME. EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT AS CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. MODELS SHOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS RISING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HAVE INDICATED SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE
CONNECTICUT AND WHITE RIVER VALLEYS...AS THESE AREAS HAVE HAD FOG
THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 419 PM EDT MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
WARM AND INCREASING HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED. BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A MID LEVEL CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. TEMPERATURE WILL APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST AND MENTION SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG OVER EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. GFS MODELS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST IN BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND THE CANADIAN GEM GLOBAL ARE
SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. PREFER THE SLOWER NAM AND CANADIAN GEM MODELS ON THE
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES OF 30
TO 40 KNOTS. ALSO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 2 INCHES ON
WEDNESDAY...SO SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WET BULB ZERO VALUES RANGE FROM
11000-12000 FEET ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAIL DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. GIVEN INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WEDNESDAY EXPECTING MAINLY GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY
ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS AT THIS TIME...AS THESE
STORMS WILL BE IN THE 4TH PERIOD. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO WIND DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS MODELS
SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL TREND DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH SITUATED NORTH OF THE BORDER WHICH WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY AND RELATIVELY CLEAR
NIGHTS. AS THE FLOW TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY TO
WEST/NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE DACKS AND GREENS...BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME
WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

CONDITIONS TURN A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS WE MOVE INTO THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH RETROGRADING WESTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEPENING OVER TIME. THIS WILL MARK A
RETURN OF MID/UPPER MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RENEWING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS LOOK
PRETTY MEAGER SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT...JUST
SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ONLY ABNORMAL
DAY WILL BE THURSDAY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
ONLY IN THE 70S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT TOUCH INTO THE
40S FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEAR TO
FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THROUGH TUESDAY MID-MORNING. WINDS SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AS WELL...BECOMING LGT TO CALM. WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL REBUILD OVER THE TERRAIN
TUESDAY MID TO LATE MORNING...AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE S/SW
AT 5-10KTS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z WED...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH
TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...KGM







000
FXUS61 KALY 212046
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
450 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING
SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A GOOD  CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA... SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED THIS AFTN HAVE DISSIPATED...
BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL SUGGEST A DECENT MID LEVEL CAP ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...BUT LIKE TODAY WHEN ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPED UP...CAN/T
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN SO HAVE FORECAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN MOST AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

VERY WARM AND HUMID TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
ALTHOUGH SKIES SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR IN MANY AREAS...A GOOD
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING VERY MUCH AND HAVE
FORECAST LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

STILL DRY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT...DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING...OR HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AND
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE
TO LIKELY LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MID AFTN...LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE AFTN...AND LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT POPS ARE ONLY SLOWLY
FORECAST TO DECREASE BECAUSE MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM OUR AREA AND INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY IN THE DAY...SO WILL HOLD ON TO CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP NOTICEABLY BY LATE THURSDAY...WITH A
NORTHERLY FLOW FROM CANADA PROVIDING THE DRIER AIR.

GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
FRIDAY...BUT ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY POPS FOR NOW. THERE WILL BE A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME OVER THE AREA...SO DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO POP UP.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS CONTINUED DRY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...AS A CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND TAKE UP
RESIDENCE NEXT WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...CONTINUED DIFFLUENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A POTENTIAL QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED THREAT OF
CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EVENING...

AS 1850Z...RADARS INDICATED NO MORE SHOWERS TO THE WEST OF KALB AND
KGFL...THEREFORE WE REMOVED VCSH FROM THOSE TAFS.

IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED-BROKEN
35000-45000 FEET AGL CUMULUS CLOUDS. THE WIND WILL BE SOUTHERLY
5-10KTS.

DRY THIS EVENING WITH THE CU DISSIPATING. THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE
OVERNIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S. WE ARE FORECASTING
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT AT KGFL AND KPSF. WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND FORMATION IS A GOOD BET AT BOTH
THESE LOCALITIES. HAVE PLACED IFR MIST (2SM BR) IN BOTH TAFS WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE (JUST A LITTLE OVER 50 PERCENT).

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LOW AT KALB AND KPOU SO FOR
NOW...ONLY PLACED MIFG (SHALLOW FOG) IN THOSE TAFS WITH A HIGH
CONFIDENCE (75 PERCENT) THAT IFR FOG WILL NOT FORM.

TUESDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH A FEW-SCT050 (CUMULUS CLOUDS). THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE PROBABILITY IS
TOO LOW (20 PERCENT) TO PLACE IN ANY OF THE TAFS IN ANYWAY NOW. ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT WOULD IMPACT AN TAF WOULD LIKELY BE VERY SHORT
LIVED.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ON TUESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL ENTRENCHED IN A
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

WITH HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM
















000
FXUS61 KBTV 212019
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
419 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY REGION OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG
AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 419 PM EDT MONDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS
TIME. EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT AS CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. MODELS SHOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS RISING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HAVE INDICATED SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE
CONNECTICUT AND WHITE RIVER VALLEYS...AS THESE AREAS HAVE HAD FOG
THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 419 PM EDT MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
WARM AND INCREASING HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED. BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A MID LEVEL CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. TEMPERATURE WILL APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST AND MENTION SOME PATCHY DENSE
FOG OVER EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. GFS MODELS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST IN BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND THE CANADIAN GEM GLOBAL ARE SLOWER WITH
THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
PREFER THE SLOWER NAM AND CANADIAN GEM MODELS ON THE SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS.
ALSO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 2 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY...SO
SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
WET BULB ZERO VALUES RANGE FROM 11000-12000 FEET ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAIL
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. GIVEN INCREASING
0-6KM BULK SHEAR WEDNESDAY EXPECTING MAINLY GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS AT
THIS TIME...AS THESE STORMS WILL BE IN THE 4TH PERIOD. EXPECTING SHOWERS
TO WIND DOWN ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS
MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL TREND DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH SITUATED NORTH OF THE BORDER WHICH WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY AND RELATIVELY CLEAR
NIGHTS. AS THE FLOW TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY TO
WEST/NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE DACKS AND GREENS...BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME
WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

CONDITIONS TURN A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS WE MOVE INTO THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH RETROGRADING WESTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEPENING OVER TIME. THIS WILL MARK A
RETURN OF MID/UPPER MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RENEWING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS LOOK
PRETTY MEAGER SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT...JUST
SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ONLY ABNORMAL
DAY WILL BE THURSDAY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
ONLY IN THE 70S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT TOUCH INTO THE
40S FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. DIURNAL CUMULUS MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND GREENS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT TO SKC...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN AFTER
12-14Z TUESDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY SPARK AN
ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE DACKS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE NOT
ENOUGH TO EVEN MENTION VCSH SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF FORECAST. LIGHT
TERRAIN AND LAKE DRIVEN WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ABATE OVERNIGHT AND
RETURN AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH AN ISOLATED TERRAIN DRIVEN
SHOWER POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF








000
FXUS61 KBTV 212019
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
419 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY REGION OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG
AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 419 PM EDT MONDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS
TIME. EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT AS CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. MODELS SHOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS RISING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HAVE INDICATED SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE
CONNECTICUT AND WHITE RIVER VALLEYS...AS THESE AREAS HAVE HAD FOG
THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 419 PM EDT MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
WARM AND INCREASING HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED. BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A MID LEVEL CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. TEMPERATURE WILL APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST AND MENTION SOME PATCHY DENSE
FOG OVER EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. GFS MODELS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST IN BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND THE CANADIAN GEM GLOBAL ARE SLOWER WITH
THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
PREFER THE SLOWER NAM AND CANADIAN GEM MODELS ON THE SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS.
ALSO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 2 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY...SO
SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
WET BULB ZERO VALUES RANGE FROM 11000-12000 FEET ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAIL
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. GIVEN INCREASING
0-6KM BULK SHEAR WEDNESDAY EXPECTING MAINLY GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS AT
THIS TIME...AS THESE STORMS WILL BE IN THE 4TH PERIOD. EXPECTING SHOWERS
TO WIND DOWN ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS
MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL TREND DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH SITUATED NORTH OF THE BORDER WHICH WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY AND RELATIVELY CLEAR
NIGHTS. AS THE FLOW TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY TO
WEST/NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE DACKS AND GREENS...BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME
WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

CONDITIONS TURN A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS WE MOVE INTO THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH RETROGRADING WESTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEPENING OVER TIME. THIS WILL MARK A
RETURN OF MID/UPPER MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RENEWING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS LOOK
PRETTY MEAGER SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT...JUST
SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ONLY ABNORMAL
DAY WILL BE THURSDAY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
ONLY IN THE 70S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT TOUCH INTO THE
40S FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. DIURNAL CUMULUS MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND GREENS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT TO SKC...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN AFTER
12-14Z TUESDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY SPARK AN
ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE DACKS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE NOT
ENOUGH TO EVEN MENTION VCSH SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF FORECAST. LIGHT
TERRAIN AND LAKE DRIVEN WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ABATE OVERNIGHT AND
RETURN AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH AN ISOLATED TERRAIN DRIVEN
SHOWER POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF








000
FXUS61 KBTV 212019
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
419 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY REGION OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG
AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 419 PM EDT MONDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS
TIME. EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT AS CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. MODELS SHOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS RISING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HAVE INDICATED SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE
CONNECTICUT AND WHITE RIVER VALLEYS...AS THESE AREAS HAVE HAD FOG
THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 419 PM EDT MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
WARM AND INCREASING HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED. BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A MID LEVEL CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. TEMPERATURE WILL APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST AND MENTION SOME PATCHY DENSE
FOG OVER EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. GFS MODELS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST IN BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND THE CANADIAN GEM GLOBAL ARE SLOWER WITH
THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
PREFER THE SLOWER NAM AND CANADIAN GEM MODELS ON THE SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS.
ALSO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 2 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY...SO
SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
WET BULB ZERO VALUES RANGE FROM 11000-12000 FEET ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAIL
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. GIVEN INCREASING
0-6KM BULK SHEAR WEDNESDAY EXPECTING MAINLY GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS AT
THIS TIME...AS THESE STORMS WILL BE IN THE 4TH PERIOD. EXPECTING SHOWERS
TO WIND DOWN ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS
MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL TREND DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH SITUATED NORTH OF THE BORDER WHICH WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY AND RELATIVELY CLEAR
NIGHTS. AS THE FLOW TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY TO
WEST/NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE DACKS AND GREENS...BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME
WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

CONDITIONS TURN A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS WE MOVE INTO THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH RETROGRADING WESTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEPENING OVER TIME. THIS WILL MARK A
RETURN OF MID/UPPER MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RENEWING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS LOOK
PRETTY MEAGER SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT...JUST
SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ONLY ABNORMAL
DAY WILL BE THURSDAY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
ONLY IN THE 70S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT TOUCH INTO THE
40S FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. DIURNAL CUMULUS MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND GREENS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT TO SKC...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN AFTER
12-14Z TUESDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY SPARK AN
ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE DACKS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE NOT
ENOUGH TO EVEN MENTION VCSH SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF FORECAST. LIGHT
TERRAIN AND LAKE DRIVEN WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ABATE OVERNIGHT AND
RETURN AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH AN ISOLATED TERRAIN DRIVEN
SHOWER POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF








000
FXUS61 KBTV 212019
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
419 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY REGION OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG
AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 419 PM EDT MONDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS
TIME. EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT AS CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. MODELS SHOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS RISING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HAVE INDICATED SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE
CONNECTICUT AND WHITE RIVER VALLEYS...AS THESE AREAS HAVE HAD FOG
THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 419 PM EDT MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
WARM AND INCREASING HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED. BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A MID LEVEL CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. TEMPERATURE WILL APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST AND MENTION SOME PATCHY DENSE
FOG OVER EASTERN VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. GFS MODELS
SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST IN BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND THE CANADIAN GEM GLOBAL ARE SLOWER WITH
THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
PREFER THE SLOWER NAM AND CANADIAN GEM MODELS ON THE SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS.
ALSO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 2 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY...SO
SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
WET BULB ZERO VALUES RANGE FROM 11000-12000 FEET ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAIL
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. GIVEN INCREASING
0-6KM BULK SHEAR WEDNESDAY EXPECTING MAINLY GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONE FORECASTS AT
THIS TIME...AS THESE STORMS WILL BE IN THE 4TH PERIOD. EXPECTING SHOWERS
TO WIND DOWN ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS
MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL TREND DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH SITUATED NORTH OF THE BORDER WHICH WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY AND RELATIVELY CLEAR
NIGHTS. AS THE FLOW TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY TO
WEST/NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE DACKS AND GREENS...BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME
WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

CONDITIONS TURN A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS WE MOVE INTO THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH RETROGRADING WESTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEPENING OVER TIME. THIS WILL MARK A
RETURN OF MID/UPPER MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RENEWING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS LOOK
PRETTY MEAGER SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT...JUST
SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ONLY ABNORMAL
DAY WILL BE THURSDAY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
ONLY IN THE 70S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT TOUCH INTO THE
40S FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. DIURNAL CUMULUS MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND GREENS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT TO SKC...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN AFTER
12-14Z TUESDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY SPARK AN
ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE DACKS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE NOT
ENOUGH TO EVEN MENTION VCSH SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF FORECAST. LIGHT
TERRAIN AND LAKE DRIVEN WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ABATE OVERNIGHT AND
RETURN AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH AN ISOLATED TERRAIN DRIVEN
SHOWER POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF








000
FXUS61 KBTV 211904
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
304 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY...WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS
WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS. A POP UP ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
VERMONT...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 134 PM EDT MONDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS
TIME. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING PLENTY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME AND ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GENERALLY GOOD
SHAPE...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT MONDAY...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDS...WITH STRONG TO
POSSIBLE SVR STORMS.

MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS ON
TUESDAY...AHEAD OF POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED TROF ACRS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF BUILDING HGHTS...WARMING MID LVL
TEMPS/CAP...AND VERY DRY SOUNDING PROFILES WL LIMIT PRECIP CHCS ON
TUESDAY. WL MENTION JUST SCHC (20%) ACRS THE MTNS...BUT THINKING CWA
WL REMAIN DRY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN 15-17C BY 00Z
WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE L80S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 90F CPV/SLV AND
LWR CT RIVER VALLEY. THESE TEMPS WITH DWPTS READINGS IN THE 60S...WL
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE L90S ACRS THE WARMER VALLEY
LOCATIONS. A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ON TUES NIGHT/WEDS
MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY FLW AND DWPT TEMPS IN THE 60S. LOWS WL RANGE
FROM THE U50S DEEPER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 70F IN THE CPV/SLV.

MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDS...WITH SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE.
SYNOPTIC SCALE SHOWS DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WITH POTENT 5H VORT APPROACHING THE SLV BY 18Z WEDS.
THIS TROF WL HELP INCREASE THE MID/UPPER LVL WIND FIELDS ACRS OUR
REGION LATE ON WEDS AFTN...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES BTWN 30 AND
40 KNOTS. ALSO...HAVE NOTED 500MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40 KNOTS ACRS
NNY BY 18Z WEDS. AT THE SFC A WELL DEFINED SFC COLD FRNT WITH
CONVERGENCE WL BE LOCATED ACRS THE SLV/NNY AT 18Z...AND THRU MOST OF
OUR CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS TIMING ALONG WITH THE POTENT S/W ENERGY
WL BE DURING PEAK HEATING/GREATEST INSTABILITY...HELPING WITH ROBUST
UPDRAFTS AND STORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM PROGGED SFC BASED CAPE VALUES
ARE BTWN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG WITH LIS VALUES AROUND -5C...WITH SOME
HINTS AT A WEAK ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...WITH MODEST MID LVL LAPSE
RATES. SOUNDINGS CONT TO SUPPORT A UNIDIRECTIONAL FLW FROM SFC THRU
500MB...RESULTING IN ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS OF STORMS/MULTI CELLS.
THE PRIMARY SVR WX THREAT WL BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITHIN ANY BOWING
LINE SEGMENT. WL UPDATED HWO AND MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR.
STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF SYSTEM AND MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO NOT MENTION SVR IN THE ZONES ATTM.
ALSO...WITH PWS BTWN 1.75 AND 1.90" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
APPROACHING 12,000 FEET...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN POURS WL BE LIKELY.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS REMAIN UNCHANGED AHEAD OF BOUNDARY FOR
WEDS...AROUND 16C SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90
IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
MAY LIMIT FULL HEATING POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL TREND DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH SITUATED NORTH OF THE BORDER WHICH WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY AND RELATIVELY CLEAR
NIGHTS. AS THE FLOW TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY TO
WEST/NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE DACKS AND GREENS...BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME
WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

CONDITIONS TURN A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS WE MOVE INTO THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH RETROGRADING WESTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEPENING OVER TIME. THIS WILL MARK A
RETURN OF MID/UPPER MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RENEWING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS LOOK
PRETTY MEAGER SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT...JUST
SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ONLY ABNORMAL
DAY WILL BE THURSDAY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
ONLY IN THE 70S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT TOUCH INTO THE
40S FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. DIURNAL CUMULUS MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND GREENS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT TO SKC...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN AFTER
12-14Z TUESDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY SPARK AN
ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE DACKS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE NOT
ENOUGH TO EVEN MENTION VCSH SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF FORECAST. LIGHT
TERRAIN AND LAKE DRIVEN WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ABATE OVERNIGHT AND
RETURN AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH AN ISOLATED TERRAIN DRIVEN
SHOWER POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 211904
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
304 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY...WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS
WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS. A POP UP ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
VERMONT...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 134 PM EDT MONDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS
TIME. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING PLENTY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME AND ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GENERALLY GOOD
SHAPE...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT MONDAY...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDS...WITH STRONG TO
POSSIBLE SVR STORMS.

MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS ON
TUESDAY...AHEAD OF POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED TROF ACRS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF BUILDING HGHTS...WARMING MID LVL
TEMPS/CAP...AND VERY DRY SOUNDING PROFILES WL LIMIT PRECIP CHCS ON
TUESDAY. WL MENTION JUST SCHC (20%) ACRS THE MTNS...BUT THINKING CWA
WL REMAIN DRY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN 15-17C BY 00Z
WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE L80S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 90F CPV/SLV AND
LWR CT RIVER VALLEY. THESE TEMPS WITH DWPTS READINGS IN THE 60S...WL
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE L90S ACRS THE WARMER VALLEY
LOCATIONS. A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ON TUES NIGHT/WEDS
MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY FLW AND DWPT TEMPS IN THE 60S. LOWS WL RANGE
FROM THE U50S DEEPER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 70F IN THE CPV/SLV.

MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDS...WITH SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE.
SYNOPTIC SCALE SHOWS DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WITH POTENT 5H VORT APPROACHING THE SLV BY 18Z WEDS.
THIS TROF WL HELP INCREASE THE MID/UPPER LVL WIND FIELDS ACRS OUR
REGION LATE ON WEDS AFTN...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES BTWN 30 AND
40 KNOTS. ALSO...HAVE NOTED 500MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40 KNOTS ACRS
NNY BY 18Z WEDS. AT THE SFC A WELL DEFINED SFC COLD FRNT WITH
CONVERGENCE WL BE LOCATED ACRS THE SLV/NNY AT 18Z...AND THRU MOST OF
OUR CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS TIMING ALONG WITH THE POTENT S/W ENERGY
WL BE DURING PEAK HEATING/GREATEST INSTABILITY...HELPING WITH ROBUST
UPDRAFTS AND STORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM PROGGED SFC BASED CAPE VALUES
ARE BTWN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG WITH LIS VALUES AROUND -5C...WITH SOME
HINTS AT A WEAK ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...WITH MODEST MID LVL LAPSE
RATES. SOUNDINGS CONT TO SUPPORT A UNIDIRECTIONAL FLW FROM SFC THRU
500MB...RESULTING IN ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS OF STORMS/MULTI CELLS.
THE PRIMARY SVR WX THREAT WL BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITHIN ANY BOWING
LINE SEGMENT. WL UPDATED HWO AND MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR.
STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF SYSTEM AND MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO NOT MENTION SVR IN THE ZONES ATTM.
ALSO...WITH PWS BTWN 1.75 AND 1.90" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
APPROACHING 12,000 FEET...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN POURS WL BE LIKELY.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS REMAIN UNCHANGED AHEAD OF BOUNDARY FOR
WEDS...AROUND 16C SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90
IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
MAY LIMIT FULL HEATING POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL TREND DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH SITUATED NORTH OF THE BORDER WHICH WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY AND RELATIVELY CLEAR
NIGHTS. AS THE FLOW TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY TO
WEST/NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE DACKS AND GREENS...BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME
WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

CONDITIONS TURN A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS WE MOVE INTO THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH RETROGRADING WESTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEPENING OVER TIME. THIS WILL MARK A
RETURN OF MID/UPPER MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RENEWING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS LOOK
PRETTY MEAGER SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT...JUST
SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ONLY ABNORMAL
DAY WILL BE THURSDAY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
ONLY IN THE 70S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT TOUCH INTO THE
40S FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. DIURNAL CUMULUS MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND GREENS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT TO SKC...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN AFTER
12-14Z TUESDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY SPARK AN
ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE DACKS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE NOT
ENOUGH TO EVEN MENTION VCSH SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF FORECAST. LIGHT
TERRAIN AND LAKE DRIVEN WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ABATE OVERNIGHT AND
RETURN AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH AN ISOLATED TERRAIN DRIVEN
SHOWER POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 211904
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
304 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY...WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS
WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS. A POP UP ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
VERMONT...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 134 PM EDT MONDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS
TIME. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING PLENTY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME AND ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GENERALLY GOOD
SHAPE...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT MONDAY...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDS...WITH STRONG TO
POSSIBLE SVR STORMS.

MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS ON
TUESDAY...AHEAD OF POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED TROF ACRS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF BUILDING HGHTS...WARMING MID LVL
TEMPS/CAP...AND VERY DRY SOUNDING PROFILES WL LIMIT PRECIP CHCS ON
TUESDAY. WL MENTION JUST SCHC (20%) ACRS THE MTNS...BUT THINKING CWA
WL REMAIN DRY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN 15-17C BY 00Z
WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE L80S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 90F CPV/SLV AND
LWR CT RIVER VALLEY. THESE TEMPS WITH DWPTS READINGS IN THE 60S...WL
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE L90S ACRS THE WARMER VALLEY
LOCATIONS. A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ON TUES NIGHT/WEDS
MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY FLW AND DWPT TEMPS IN THE 60S. LOWS WL RANGE
FROM THE U50S DEEPER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 70F IN THE CPV/SLV.

MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDS...WITH SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE.
SYNOPTIC SCALE SHOWS DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WITH POTENT 5H VORT APPROACHING THE SLV BY 18Z WEDS.
THIS TROF WL HELP INCREASE THE MID/UPPER LVL WIND FIELDS ACRS OUR
REGION LATE ON WEDS AFTN...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES BTWN 30 AND
40 KNOTS. ALSO...HAVE NOTED 500MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40 KNOTS ACRS
NNY BY 18Z WEDS. AT THE SFC A WELL DEFINED SFC COLD FRNT WITH
CONVERGENCE WL BE LOCATED ACRS THE SLV/NNY AT 18Z...AND THRU MOST OF
OUR CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS TIMING ALONG WITH THE POTENT S/W ENERGY
WL BE DURING PEAK HEATING/GREATEST INSTABILITY...HELPING WITH ROBUST
UPDRAFTS AND STORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM PROGGED SFC BASED CAPE VALUES
ARE BTWN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG WITH LIS VALUES AROUND -5C...WITH SOME
HINTS AT A WEAK ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...WITH MODEST MID LVL LAPSE
RATES. SOUNDINGS CONT TO SUPPORT A UNIDIRECTIONAL FLW FROM SFC THRU
500MB...RESULTING IN ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS OF STORMS/MULTI CELLS.
THE PRIMARY SVR WX THREAT WL BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITHIN ANY BOWING
LINE SEGMENT. WL UPDATED HWO AND MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR.
STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF SYSTEM AND MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO NOT MENTION SVR IN THE ZONES ATTM.
ALSO...WITH PWS BTWN 1.75 AND 1.90" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
APPROACHING 12,000 FEET...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN POURS WL BE LIKELY.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS REMAIN UNCHANGED AHEAD OF BOUNDARY FOR
WEDS...AROUND 16C SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90
IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
MAY LIMIT FULL HEATING POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL TREND DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH SITUATED NORTH OF THE BORDER WHICH WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY AND RELATIVELY CLEAR
NIGHTS. AS THE FLOW TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY TO
WEST/NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE DACKS AND GREENS...BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME
WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

CONDITIONS TURN A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS WE MOVE INTO THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH RETROGRADING WESTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEPENING OVER TIME. THIS WILL MARK A
RETURN OF MID/UPPER MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RENEWING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS LOOK
PRETTY MEAGER SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT...JUST
SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ONLY ABNORMAL
DAY WILL BE THURSDAY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
ONLY IN THE 70S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT TOUCH INTO THE
40S FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. DIURNAL CUMULUS MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND GREENS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT TO SKC...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN AFTER
12-14Z TUESDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY SPARK AN
ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE DACKS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE NOT
ENOUGH TO EVEN MENTION VCSH SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF FORECAST. LIGHT
TERRAIN AND LAKE DRIVEN WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ABATE OVERNIGHT AND
RETURN AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH AN ISOLATED TERRAIN DRIVEN
SHOWER POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 211904
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
304 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY...WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS
WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS. A POP UP ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
VERMONT...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 134 PM EDT MONDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS
TIME. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING PLENTY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME AND ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GENERALLY GOOD
SHAPE...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT MONDAY...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDS...WITH STRONG TO
POSSIBLE SVR STORMS.

MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS ON
TUESDAY...AHEAD OF POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED TROF ACRS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF BUILDING HGHTS...WARMING MID LVL
TEMPS/CAP...AND VERY DRY SOUNDING PROFILES WL LIMIT PRECIP CHCS ON
TUESDAY. WL MENTION JUST SCHC (20%) ACRS THE MTNS...BUT THINKING CWA
WL REMAIN DRY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN 15-17C BY 00Z
WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE L80S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 90F CPV/SLV AND
LWR CT RIVER VALLEY. THESE TEMPS WITH DWPTS READINGS IN THE 60S...WL
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE L90S ACRS THE WARMER VALLEY
LOCATIONS. A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ON TUES NIGHT/WEDS
MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY FLW AND DWPT TEMPS IN THE 60S. LOWS WL RANGE
FROM THE U50S DEEPER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 70F IN THE CPV/SLV.

MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDS...WITH SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE.
SYNOPTIC SCALE SHOWS DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WITH POTENT 5H VORT APPROACHING THE SLV BY 18Z WEDS.
THIS TROF WL HELP INCREASE THE MID/UPPER LVL WIND FIELDS ACRS OUR
REGION LATE ON WEDS AFTN...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES BTWN 30 AND
40 KNOTS. ALSO...HAVE NOTED 500MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40 KNOTS ACRS
NNY BY 18Z WEDS. AT THE SFC A WELL DEFINED SFC COLD FRNT WITH
CONVERGENCE WL BE LOCATED ACRS THE SLV/NNY AT 18Z...AND THRU MOST OF
OUR CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS TIMING ALONG WITH THE POTENT S/W ENERGY
WL BE DURING PEAK HEATING/GREATEST INSTABILITY...HELPING WITH ROBUST
UPDRAFTS AND STORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM PROGGED SFC BASED CAPE VALUES
ARE BTWN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG WITH LIS VALUES AROUND -5C...WITH SOME
HINTS AT A WEAK ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...WITH MODEST MID LVL LAPSE
RATES. SOUNDINGS CONT TO SUPPORT A UNIDIRECTIONAL FLW FROM SFC THRU
500MB...RESULTING IN ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS OF STORMS/MULTI CELLS.
THE PRIMARY SVR WX THREAT WL BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITHIN ANY BOWING
LINE SEGMENT. WL UPDATED HWO AND MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR.
STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF SYSTEM AND MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO NOT MENTION SVR IN THE ZONES ATTM.
ALSO...WITH PWS BTWN 1.75 AND 1.90" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
APPROACHING 12,000 FEET...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN POURS WL BE LIKELY.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS REMAIN UNCHANGED AHEAD OF BOUNDARY FOR
WEDS...AROUND 16C SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90
IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
MAY LIMIT FULL HEATING POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL TREND DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH SITUATED NORTH OF THE BORDER WHICH WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY AND RELATIVELY CLEAR
NIGHTS. AS THE FLOW TURNS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY TO
WEST/NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE DACKS AND GREENS...BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME
WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY REMAINING DRY.

CONDITIONS TURN A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS WE MOVE INTO THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH RETROGRADING WESTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEPENING OVER TIME. THIS WILL MARK A
RETURN OF MID/UPPER MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RENEWING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...RIGHT NOW DYNAMICS LOOK
PRETTY MEAGER SO NOT THINKING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT...JUST
SOME GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ONLY ABNORMAL
DAY WILL BE THURSDAY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
ONLY IN THE 70S...AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT TOUCH INTO THE
40S FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. DIURNAL CUMULUS MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND GREENS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT TO SKC...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN AFTER
12-14Z TUESDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY SPARK AN
ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE DACKS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE NOT
ENOUGH TO EVEN MENTION VCSH SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF FORECAST. LIGHT
TERRAIN AND LAKE DRIVEN WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ABATE OVERNIGHT AND
RETURN AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH AN ISOLATED TERRAIN DRIVEN
SHOWER POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KALY 211856
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
250 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOME PATCHY CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND TODAY...MAYBE SPAWNING A STRAY
SHOWER BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST
ALLOWING FOR INCREASING SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY TOMORROW AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1100 AM EDT...SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THE CLOUDS ARE
BREAKING UP. HOWEVER...THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT LINGERS AND COULD BE
JUST ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS...MAINLY WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

THE 12Z ALY RAOB INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD MID LEVEL CAP AROUND 10,000
FEET WHICH WOULD LIKELY PREVENT ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWER FROM REACHING
TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ICE AND THUNDER...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
FREEZING LEVEL WAS NEAR 14,000 FEET. PWATS HOWEVER...ARE OVER AN
INCH...CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AND ENOUGH WITH SOME WEAK ASCENT
AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS.

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO RE-TOOL THE HOURLY GRIDS (NAMELY CLOUDS) BUT
BASED ON THE 12Z RAOB LEFT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ALONE.

THEREFORE..THE COMBINATION OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE COULD
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION LATER TODAY. THE
H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ARE
WEAK IMPULSES THAT COINCIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO TOUCH OFF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER DESPITE A CAP SEEN IN THE BUFR PROFILES STARTING AROUND
H650. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE THETA-E ADVECTIVE FIELDS SO WE
WILL RETAIN THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT FORECAST OF 20-30 POPS FOR
LOCATIONS MAINLY INTO EASTERN NY COUNTIES. UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE...HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 80S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MAINLY UPPER 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME DEPARTS LEAVING BEHIND RISING HEIGHTS. SO
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASING. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY
INTO THE 60S. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD ALLOW FOR SOME HZ/BR TO BE
OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

TUESDAY...A WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION. THERE REMAINS SUBTLE HINTS OF LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 YET THE BUFR PROFILES DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO
CAP CENTERED JUST ABOVE H700. THE GFS HAS LESS EMPHASIS ON THIS
CAP AND HIGHER MOISTURE COLUMN CONTENT WITH THE NAM DRIER IN THE
MID LEVELS AND A MUCH STRONGER CAP. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL WE
EVALUATE...THE QPF FIELDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWFA. SO WE WILL RETAIN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 80S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AND AROUND 80F FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S AS APPARENT
TEMPERATURES /HEAT INDEX/ CLIMB TO AROUND 90F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD CEASE WITHIN AN
HOUR OF SUNSET. A STRENGTHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FURTHER INCREASE
OUR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINT CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S.
COULD SEE MORE AREAS OF HAZE DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 70F FOR MOHAWK...MID HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND LOW-MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA.
WITH WARM TEMPS /VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S/ AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F/ AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EASILY DEVELOP...ESP
IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WE WILL NEED TO THE WATCH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF EXPECTED
INSTABILITY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 40
KTS...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS SOME NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT CROSSES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND IT MAY EVEN STALL AND REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AS WELL. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WED NIGHT/THURS...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR STRONGER
STORMS WILL DIMINISH DUE TO LESS INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE 60S FOR WED NIGHT...AND BE COOLER FOR THURSDAY WITH 70S TO NEAR
80.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS
WILL BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. IT WON/T BE
TOO OVERLY HUMID EITHER...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE US FROM CANADA. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE OVER OUR
AREA...SOME DIURNALLY FORCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE
FOR SUN AFTN AND EVENING...WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EVENING...

AS 1850Z...RADARS INDICATED NO MORE SHOWERS TO THE WEST OF KALB AND
KGFL...THEREFORE WE REMOVED VCSH FROM THOSE TAFS.

IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED-BROKEN
35000-45000 FEET AGL CUMULUS CLOUDS. THE WIND WILL BE SOUTHERLY
5-10KTS.

DRY THIS EVENING WITH THE CU DISSIPATING. THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE
OVERNIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S. WE ARE FORECASTING
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT AT KGFL AND KPSF. WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND FORMATION IS A GOOD BET AT BOTH
THESE LOCALITIES. HAVE PLACED IFR MIST (2SM BR) IN BOTH TAFS WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE (JUST A LITTLE OVER 50 PERCENT).

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LOW AT KALB AND KPOU SO FOR
NOW...ONLY PLACED MIFG (SHALLOW FOG) IN THOSE TAFS WITH A HIGH
CONFIDENCE (75 PERCENT) THAT IFR FOG WILL NOT FORM.

TUESDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH A FEW-SCT050 (CUMULUS CLOUDS). THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE PROBABILITY IS
TOO LOW (20 PERCENT) TO PLACE IN ANY OF THE TAFS IN ANYWAY NOW. ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT WOULD IMPACT AN TAF WOULD LIKELY BE VERY SHORT
LIVED.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY AND TUESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO INCREASE AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION THAT WILL BE WELL
ENTRENCHED INTO A HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING AND AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

AS HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE IN THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM












000
FXUS61 KALY 211856
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
250 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOME PATCHY CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND TODAY...MAYBE SPAWNING A STRAY
SHOWER BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST
ALLOWING FOR INCREASING SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY TOMORROW AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1100 AM EDT...SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THE CLOUDS ARE
BREAKING UP. HOWEVER...THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT LINGERS AND COULD BE
JUST ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS...MAINLY WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

THE 12Z ALY RAOB INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD MID LEVEL CAP AROUND 10,000
FEET WHICH WOULD LIKELY PREVENT ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWER FROM REACHING
TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ICE AND THUNDER...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
FREEZING LEVEL WAS NEAR 14,000 FEET. PWATS HOWEVER...ARE OVER AN
INCH...CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AND ENOUGH WITH SOME WEAK ASCENT
AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS.

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO RE-TOOL THE HOURLY GRIDS (NAMELY CLOUDS) BUT
BASED ON THE 12Z RAOB LEFT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ALONE.

THEREFORE..THE COMBINATION OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE COULD
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION LATER TODAY. THE
H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ARE
WEAK IMPULSES THAT COINCIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO TOUCH OFF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER DESPITE A CAP SEEN IN THE BUFR PROFILES STARTING AROUND
H650. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE THETA-E ADVECTIVE FIELDS SO WE
WILL RETAIN THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT FORECAST OF 20-30 POPS FOR
LOCATIONS MAINLY INTO EASTERN NY COUNTIES. UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE...HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 80S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MAINLY UPPER 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME DEPARTS LEAVING BEHIND RISING HEIGHTS. SO
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASING. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY
INTO THE 60S. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD ALLOW FOR SOME HZ/BR TO BE
OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

TUESDAY...A WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION. THERE REMAINS SUBTLE HINTS OF LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 YET THE BUFR PROFILES DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO
CAP CENTERED JUST ABOVE H700. THE GFS HAS LESS EMPHASIS ON THIS
CAP AND HIGHER MOISTURE COLUMN CONTENT WITH THE NAM DRIER IN THE
MID LEVELS AND A MUCH STRONGER CAP. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL WE
EVALUATE...THE QPF FIELDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWFA. SO WE WILL RETAIN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 80S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AND AROUND 80F FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S AS APPARENT
TEMPERATURES /HEAT INDEX/ CLIMB TO AROUND 90F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD CEASE WITHIN AN
HOUR OF SUNSET. A STRENGTHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FURTHER INCREASE
OUR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINT CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S.
COULD SEE MORE AREAS OF HAZE DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 70F FOR MOHAWK...MID HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND LOW-MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA.
WITH WARM TEMPS /VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S/ AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F/ AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EASILY DEVELOP...ESP
IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WE WILL NEED TO THE WATCH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF EXPECTED
INSTABILITY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 40
KTS...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS SOME NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT CROSSES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND IT MAY EVEN STALL AND REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AS WELL. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WED NIGHT/THURS...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR STRONGER
STORMS WILL DIMINISH DUE TO LESS INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE 60S FOR WED NIGHT...AND BE COOLER FOR THURSDAY WITH 70S TO NEAR
80.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS
WILL BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. IT WON/T BE
TOO OVERLY HUMID EITHER...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE US FROM CANADA. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE OVER OUR
AREA...SOME DIURNALLY FORCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE
FOR SUN AFTN AND EVENING...WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EVENING...

AS 1850Z...RADARS INDICATED NO MORE SHOWERS TO THE WEST OF KALB AND
KGFL...THEREFORE WE REMOVED VCSH FROM THOSE TAFS.

IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED-BROKEN
35000-45000 FEET AGL CUMULUS CLOUDS. THE WIND WILL BE SOUTHERLY
5-10KTS.

DRY THIS EVENING WITH THE CU DISSIPATING. THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE
OVERNIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S. WE ARE FORECASTING
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT AT KGFL AND KPSF. WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND FORMATION IS A GOOD BET AT BOTH
THESE LOCALITIES. HAVE PLACED IFR MIST (2SM BR) IN BOTH TAFS WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE (JUST A LITTLE OVER 50 PERCENT).

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LOW AT KALB AND KPOU SO FOR
NOW...ONLY PLACED MIFG (SHALLOW FOG) IN THOSE TAFS WITH A HIGH
CONFIDENCE (75 PERCENT) THAT IFR FOG WILL NOT FORM.

TUESDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH A FEW-SCT050 (CUMULUS CLOUDS). THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE PROBABILITY IS
TOO LOW (20 PERCENT) TO PLACE IN ANY OF THE TAFS IN ANYWAY NOW. ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT WOULD IMPACT AN TAF WOULD LIKELY BE VERY SHORT
LIVED.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY AND TUESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO INCREASE AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION THAT WILL BE WELL
ENTRENCHED INTO A HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING AND AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

AS HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE IN THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM













000
FXUS61 KALY 211746
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOME PATCHY CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND TODAY...MAYBE SPAWNING A STRAY
SHOWER BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST
ALLOWING FOR INCREASING SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY TOMORROW AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1100 AM EDT...SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THE CLOUDS ARE
BREAKING UP. HOWEVER...THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT LINGERS AND COULD BE
JUST ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS...MAINLY WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

THE 12Z ALY RAOB INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD MID LEVEL CAP AROUND 10,000
FEET WHICH WOULD LIKELY PREVENT ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWER FROM REACHING
TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ICE AND THUNDER...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
FREEZING LEVEL WAS NEAR 14,000 FEET. PWATS HOWEVER...ARE OVER AN
INCH...CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AND ENOUGH WITH SOME WEAK ASCENT
AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS.

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO RE-TOOL THE HOURLY GRIDS (NAMELY CLOUDS) BUT
BASED ON THE 12Z RAOB LEFT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ALONE.

THEREFORE..THE COMBINATION OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE COULD
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION LATER TODAY. THE
H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ARE
WEAK IMPULSES THAT COINCIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO TOUCH OFF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER DESPITE A CAP SEEN IN THE BUFR PROFILES STARTING AROUND
H650. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE THETA-E ADVECTIVE FIELDS SO WE
WILL RETAIN THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT FORECAST OF 20-30 POPS FOR
LOCATIONS MAINLY INTO EASTERN NY COUNTIES. UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE...HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 80S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MAINLY UPPER 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME DEPARTS LEAVING BEHIND RISING HEIGHTS. SO
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASING. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY
INTO THE 60S. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD ALLOW FOR SOME HZ/BR TO BE
OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

TUESDAY...A WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION. THERE REMAINS SUBTLE HINTS OF LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 YET THE BUFR PROFILES DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO
CAP CENTERED JUST ABOVE H700. THE GFS HAS LESS EMPHASIS ON THIS
CAP AND HIGHER MOISTURE COLUMN CONTENT WITH THE NAM DRIER IN THE
MID LEVELS AND A MUCH STRONGER CAP. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL WE
EVALUATE...THE QPF FIELDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWFA. SO WE WILL RETAIN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 80S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AND AROUND 80F FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S AS APPARENT
TEMPERATURES /HEAT INDEX/ CLIMB TO AROUND 90F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD CEASE WITHIN AN
HOUR OF SUNSET. A STRENGTHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FURTHER INCREASE
OUR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINT CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S.
COULD SEE MORE AREAS OF HAZE DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 70F FOR MOHAWK...MID HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND LOW-MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA.
WITH WARM TEMPS /VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S/ AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F/ AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EASILY DEVELOP...ESP
IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WE WILL NEED TO THE WATCH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF EXPECTED
INSTABILITY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 40
KTS...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS SOME NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT CROSSES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND IT MAY EVEN STALL AND REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AS WELL. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WED NIGHT/THURS...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR STRONGER
STORMS WILL DIMINISH DUE TO LESS INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE 60S FOR WED NIGHT...AND BE COOLER FOR THURSDAY WITH 70S TO NEAR
80.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS
WILL BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. IT WON/T BE
TOO OVERLY HUMID EITHER...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE US FROM CANADA. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE OVER OUR
AREA...SOME DIURNALLY FORCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE
FOR SUN AFTN AND EVENING...WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EVENING...

AS 1745Z...RADARS INDICATED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE WEST OF
KALB AND KGFL. WILL KEEP VCSH IN THOSE TAFS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
THERE MIGHT BE ANOTHER ONE OR TWO. ANY SHOWERS WILL LIGHT...AND
SHOULD DROP CONDITIONS BELOW VFR.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED-BROKEN
35000-45000 FEET AGL CUMULUS CLOUDS. THE WIND WILL BE SOUTHERLY
5-10KTS.


DRY THIS EVENING WITH THE CU DISSIPATING. THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE
OVERNIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S. WE ARE FORECASTING
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT AT KGFL AND KPSF. WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND FORMATION IS A GOOD BET AT BOTH
THESE LOCALITIES. HAVE PLACED IFR MIST (2SM BR) IN BOTH TAFS WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE (JUST A LITTLE OVER 50 PERCENT).

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LOW AT KALB AND KPOU SO FOR
NOW...ONLY PLACED MIFG (SHALLOW FOG) IN THOSE TAFS WITH A HIGH
CONFIDENCE (75 PERCENT) THAT IFR FOG WILL NOT FORM.

TUESDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH A FEW-SCT050 (CUMULUS CLOUDS). THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE PROBABILITY IS
TOO LOW (20 PERCENT) TO PLACE IN ANY OF THE TAFS IN ANYWAY NOW. ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT WOULD IMPACT AN TAF WOULD LIKELY BE VERY SHORT
LIVED.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY AND TUESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO INCREASE AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION THAT WILL BE WELL
ENTRENCHED INTO A HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING AND AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

AS HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE IN THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM









000
FXUS61 KALY 211746
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOME PATCHY CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND TODAY...MAYBE SPAWNING A STRAY
SHOWER BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST
ALLOWING FOR INCREASING SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY TOMORROW AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1100 AM EDT...SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THE CLOUDS ARE
BREAKING UP. HOWEVER...THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT LINGERS AND COULD BE
JUST ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS...MAINLY WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

THE 12Z ALY RAOB INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD MID LEVEL CAP AROUND 10,000
FEET WHICH WOULD LIKELY PREVENT ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWER FROM REACHING
TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ICE AND THUNDER...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
FREEZING LEVEL WAS NEAR 14,000 FEET. PWATS HOWEVER...ARE OVER AN
INCH...CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AND ENOUGH WITH SOME WEAK ASCENT
AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS.

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO RE-TOOL THE HOURLY GRIDS (NAMELY CLOUDS) BUT
BASED ON THE 12Z RAOB LEFT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ALONE.

THEREFORE..THE COMBINATION OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE COULD
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION LATER TODAY. THE
H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ARE
WEAK IMPULSES THAT COINCIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO TOUCH OFF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER DESPITE A CAP SEEN IN THE BUFR PROFILES STARTING AROUND
H650. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE THETA-E ADVECTIVE FIELDS SO WE
WILL RETAIN THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT FORECAST OF 20-30 POPS FOR
LOCATIONS MAINLY INTO EASTERN NY COUNTIES. UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE...HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 80S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MAINLY UPPER 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME DEPARTS LEAVING BEHIND RISING HEIGHTS. SO
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASING. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY
INTO THE 60S. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD ALLOW FOR SOME HZ/BR TO BE
OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

TUESDAY...A WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION. THERE REMAINS SUBTLE HINTS OF LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 YET THE BUFR PROFILES DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO
CAP CENTERED JUST ABOVE H700. THE GFS HAS LESS EMPHASIS ON THIS
CAP AND HIGHER MOISTURE COLUMN CONTENT WITH THE NAM DRIER IN THE
MID LEVELS AND A MUCH STRONGER CAP. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL WE
EVALUATE...THE QPF FIELDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWFA. SO WE WILL RETAIN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 80S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AND AROUND 80F FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S AS APPARENT
TEMPERATURES /HEAT INDEX/ CLIMB TO AROUND 90F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD CEASE WITHIN AN
HOUR OF SUNSET. A STRENGTHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FURTHER INCREASE
OUR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINT CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S.
COULD SEE MORE AREAS OF HAZE DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 70F FOR MOHAWK...MID HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND LOW-MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA.
WITH WARM TEMPS /VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S/ AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F/ AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EASILY DEVELOP...ESP
IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WE WILL NEED TO THE WATCH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF EXPECTED
INSTABILITY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 40
KTS...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS SOME NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT CROSSES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND IT MAY EVEN STALL AND REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AS WELL. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WED NIGHT/THURS...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR STRONGER
STORMS WILL DIMINISH DUE TO LESS INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE 60S FOR WED NIGHT...AND BE COOLER FOR THURSDAY WITH 70S TO NEAR
80.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS
WILL BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. IT WON/T BE
TOO OVERLY HUMID EITHER...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE US FROM CANADA. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE OVER OUR
AREA...SOME DIURNALLY FORCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE
FOR SUN AFTN AND EVENING...WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EVENING...

AS 1745Z...RADARS INDICATED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE WEST OF
KALB AND KGFL. WILL KEEP VCSH IN THOSE TAFS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
THERE MIGHT BE ANOTHER ONE OR TWO. ANY SHOWERS WILL LIGHT...AND
SHOULD DROP CONDITIONS BELOW VFR.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED-BROKEN
35000-45000 FEET AGL CUMULUS CLOUDS. THE WIND WILL BE SOUTHERLY
5-10KTS.


DRY THIS EVENING WITH THE CU DISSIPATING. THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE
OVERNIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S. WE ARE FORECASTING
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT AT KGFL AND KPSF. WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND FORMATION IS A GOOD BET AT BOTH
THESE LOCALITIES. HAVE PLACED IFR MIST (2SM BR) IN BOTH TAFS WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE (JUST A LITTLE OVER 50 PERCENT).

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LOW AT KALB AND KPOU SO FOR
NOW...ONLY PLACED MIFG (SHALLOW FOG) IN THOSE TAFS WITH A HIGH
CONFIDENCE (75 PERCENT) THAT IFR FOG WILL NOT FORM.

TUESDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH A FEW-SCT050 (CUMULUS CLOUDS). THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE PROBABILITY IS
TOO LOW (20 PERCENT) TO PLACE IN ANY OF THE TAFS IN ANYWAY NOW. ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT WOULD IMPACT AN TAF WOULD LIKELY BE VERY SHORT
LIVED.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY AND TUESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO INCREASE AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION THAT WILL BE WELL
ENTRENCHED INTO A HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING AND AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

AS HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE IN THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM









000
FXUS61 KALY 211746
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOME PATCHY CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND TODAY...MAYBE SPAWNING A STRAY
SHOWER BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST
ALLOWING FOR INCREASING SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY TOMORROW AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1100 AM EDT...SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THE CLOUDS ARE
BREAKING UP. HOWEVER...THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT LINGERS AND COULD BE
JUST ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS...MAINLY WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

THE 12Z ALY RAOB INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD MID LEVEL CAP AROUND 10,000
FEET WHICH WOULD LIKELY PREVENT ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWER FROM REACHING
TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ICE AND THUNDER...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
FREEZING LEVEL WAS NEAR 14,000 FEET. PWATS HOWEVER...ARE OVER AN
INCH...CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AND ENOUGH WITH SOME WEAK ASCENT
AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS.

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO RE-TOOL THE HOURLY GRIDS (NAMELY CLOUDS) BUT
BASED ON THE 12Z RAOB LEFT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ALONE.

THEREFORE..THE COMBINATION OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE COULD
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION LATER TODAY. THE
H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ARE
WEAK IMPULSES THAT COINCIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO TOUCH OFF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER DESPITE A CAP SEEN IN THE BUFR PROFILES STARTING AROUND
H650. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE THETA-E ADVECTIVE FIELDS SO WE
WILL RETAIN THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT FORECAST OF 20-30 POPS FOR
LOCATIONS MAINLY INTO EASTERN NY COUNTIES. UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE...HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 80S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MAINLY UPPER 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME DEPARTS LEAVING BEHIND RISING HEIGHTS. SO
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASING. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY
INTO THE 60S. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD ALLOW FOR SOME HZ/BR TO BE
OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

TUESDAY...A WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION. THERE REMAINS SUBTLE HINTS OF LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 YET THE BUFR PROFILES DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO
CAP CENTERED JUST ABOVE H700. THE GFS HAS LESS EMPHASIS ON THIS
CAP AND HIGHER MOISTURE COLUMN CONTENT WITH THE NAM DRIER IN THE
MID LEVELS AND A MUCH STRONGER CAP. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL WE
EVALUATE...THE QPF FIELDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWFA. SO WE WILL RETAIN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 80S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AND AROUND 80F FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S AS APPARENT
TEMPERATURES /HEAT INDEX/ CLIMB TO AROUND 90F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD CEASE WITHIN AN
HOUR OF SUNSET. A STRENGTHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FURTHER INCREASE
OUR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINT CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S.
COULD SEE MORE AREAS OF HAZE DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 70F FOR MOHAWK...MID HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND LOW-MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA.
WITH WARM TEMPS /VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S/ AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F/ AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EASILY DEVELOP...ESP
IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WE WILL NEED TO THE WATCH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF EXPECTED
INSTABILITY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 40
KTS...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS SOME NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT CROSSES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND IT MAY EVEN STALL AND REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AS WELL. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WED NIGHT/THURS...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR STRONGER
STORMS WILL DIMINISH DUE TO LESS INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE 60S FOR WED NIGHT...AND BE COOLER FOR THURSDAY WITH 70S TO NEAR
80.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS
WILL BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. IT WON/T BE
TOO OVERLY HUMID EITHER...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE US FROM CANADA. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE OVER OUR
AREA...SOME DIURNALLY FORCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE
FOR SUN AFTN AND EVENING...WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EVENING...

AS 1745Z...RADARS INDICATED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE WEST OF
KALB AND KGFL. WILL KEEP VCSH IN THOSE TAFS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
THERE MIGHT BE ANOTHER ONE OR TWO. ANY SHOWERS WILL LIGHT...AND
SHOULD DROP CONDITIONS BELOW VFR.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED-BROKEN
35000-45000 FEET AGL CUMULUS CLOUDS. THE WIND WILL BE SOUTHERLY
5-10KTS.


DRY THIS EVENING WITH THE CU DISSIPATING. THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE
OVERNIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S. WE ARE FORECASTING
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT AT KGFL AND KPSF. WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND FORMATION IS A GOOD BET AT BOTH
THESE LOCALITIES. HAVE PLACED IFR MIST (2SM BR) IN BOTH TAFS WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE (JUST A LITTLE OVER 50 PERCENT).

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LOW AT KALB AND KPOU SO FOR
NOW...ONLY PLACED MIFG (SHALLOW FOG) IN THOSE TAFS WITH A HIGH
CONFIDENCE (75 PERCENT) THAT IFR FOG WILL NOT FORM.

TUESDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH A FEW-SCT050 (CUMULUS CLOUDS). THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE PROBABILITY IS
TOO LOW (20 PERCENT) TO PLACE IN ANY OF THE TAFS IN ANYWAY NOW. ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT WOULD IMPACT AN TAF WOULD LIKELY BE VERY SHORT
LIVED.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY AND TUESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO INCREASE AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION THAT WILL BE WELL
ENTRENCHED INTO A HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING AND AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

AS HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE IN THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM









000
FXUS61 KALY 211746
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOME PATCHY CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND TODAY...MAYBE SPAWNING A STRAY
SHOWER BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST
ALLOWING FOR INCREASING SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY TOMORROW AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1100 AM EDT...SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THE CLOUDS ARE
BREAKING UP. HOWEVER...THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT LINGERS AND COULD BE
JUST ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS...MAINLY WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

THE 12Z ALY RAOB INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD MID LEVEL CAP AROUND 10,000
FEET WHICH WOULD LIKELY PREVENT ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWER FROM REACHING
TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ICE AND THUNDER...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
FREEZING LEVEL WAS NEAR 14,000 FEET. PWATS HOWEVER...ARE OVER AN
INCH...CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AND ENOUGH WITH SOME WEAK ASCENT
AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS.

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO RE-TOOL THE HOURLY GRIDS (NAMELY CLOUDS) BUT
BASED ON THE 12Z RAOB LEFT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ALONE.

THEREFORE..THE COMBINATION OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE COULD
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION LATER TODAY. THE
H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ARE
WEAK IMPULSES THAT COINCIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO TOUCH OFF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER DESPITE A CAP SEEN IN THE BUFR PROFILES STARTING AROUND
H650. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE THETA-E ADVECTIVE FIELDS SO WE
WILL RETAIN THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT FORECAST OF 20-30 POPS FOR
LOCATIONS MAINLY INTO EASTERN NY COUNTIES. UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE...HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 80S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MAINLY UPPER 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME DEPARTS LEAVING BEHIND RISING HEIGHTS. SO
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASING. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY
INTO THE 60S. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD ALLOW FOR SOME HZ/BR TO BE
OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

TUESDAY...A WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION. THERE REMAINS SUBTLE HINTS OF LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 YET THE BUFR PROFILES DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO
CAP CENTERED JUST ABOVE H700. THE GFS HAS LESS EMPHASIS ON THIS
CAP AND HIGHER MOISTURE COLUMN CONTENT WITH THE NAM DRIER IN THE
MID LEVELS AND A MUCH STRONGER CAP. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL WE
EVALUATE...THE QPF FIELDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWFA. SO WE WILL RETAIN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 80S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AND AROUND 80F FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S AS APPARENT
TEMPERATURES /HEAT INDEX/ CLIMB TO AROUND 90F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD CEASE WITHIN AN
HOUR OF SUNSET. A STRENGTHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FURTHER INCREASE
OUR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINT CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S.
COULD SEE MORE AREAS OF HAZE DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 70F FOR MOHAWK...MID HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND LOW-MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA.
WITH WARM TEMPS /VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S/ AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F/ AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EASILY DEVELOP...ESP
IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WE WILL NEED TO THE WATCH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF EXPECTED
INSTABILITY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 40
KTS...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS SOME NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT CROSSES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND IT MAY EVEN STALL AND REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AS WELL. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WED NIGHT/THURS...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR STRONGER
STORMS WILL DIMINISH DUE TO LESS INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE 60S FOR WED NIGHT...AND BE COOLER FOR THURSDAY WITH 70S TO NEAR
80.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS
WILL BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. IT WON/T BE
TOO OVERLY HUMID EITHER...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE US FROM CANADA. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE OVER OUR
AREA...SOME DIURNALLY FORCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE
FOR SUN AFTN AND EVENING...WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EVENING...

AS 1745Z...RADARS INDICATED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE WEST OF
KALB AND KGFL. WILL KEEP VCSH IN THOSE TAFS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
THERE MIGHT BE ANOTHER ONE OR TWO. ANY SHOWERS WILL LIGHT...AND
SHOULD DROP CONDITIONS BELOW VFR.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED-BROKEN
35000-45000 FEET AGL CUMULUS CLOUDS. THE WIND WILL BE SOUTHERLY
5-10KTS.


DRY THIS EVENING WITH THE CU DISSIPATING. THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE
OVERNIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S. WE ARE FORECASTING
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT AT KGFL AND KPSF. WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND FORMATION IS A GOOD BET AT BOTH
THESE LOCALITIES. HAVE PLACED IFR MIST (2SM BR) IN BOTH TAFS WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE (JUST A LITTLE OVER 50 PERCENT).

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LOW AT KALB AND KPOU SO FOR
NOW...ONLY PLACED MIFG (SHALLOW FOG) IN THOSE TAFS WITH A HIGH
CONFIDENCE (75 PERCENT) THAT IFR FOG WILL NOT FORM.

TUESDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH A FEW-SCT050 (CUMULUS CLOUDS). THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE PROBABILITY IS
TOO LOW (20 PERCENT) TO PLACE IN ANY OF THE TAFS IN ANYWAY NOW. ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT WOULD IMPACT AN TAF WOULD LIKELY BE VERY SHORT
LIVED.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY AND TUESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO INCREASE AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION THAT WILL BE WELL
ENTRENCHED INTO A HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING AND AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

AS HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE IN THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM









000
FXUS61 KBTV 211734
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
134 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY...WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS
WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS. A POP UP ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
VERMONT...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 134 PM EDT MONDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS
TIME. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING PLENTY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME AND ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GENERALLY GOOD
SHAPE...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT MONDAY...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDS...WITH STRONG TO
POSSIBLE SVR STORMS.

MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS ON
TUESDAY...AHEAD OF POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED TROF ACRS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF BUILDING HGHTS...WARMING MID LVL
TEMPS/CAP...AND VERY DRY SOUNDING PROFILES WL LIMIT PRECIP CHCS ON
TUESDAY. WL MENTION JUST SCHC (20%) ACRS THE MTNS...BUT THINKING CWA
WL REMAIN DRY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN 15-17C BY 00Z
WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE L80S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 90F CPV/SLV AND
LWR CT RIVER VALLEY. THESE TEMPS WITH DWPTS READINGS IN THE 60S...WL
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE L90S ACRS THE WARMER VALLEY
LOCATIONS. A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ON TUES NIGHT/WEDS
MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY FLW AND DWPT TEMPS IN THE 60S. LOWS WL RANGE
FROM THE U50S DEEPER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 70F IN THE CPV/SLV.

MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDS...WITH SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE.
SYNOPTIC SCALE SHOWS DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WITH POTENT 5H VORT APPROACHING THE SLV BY 18Z WEDS.
THIS TROF WL HELP INCREASE THE MID/UPPER LVL WIND FIELDS ACRS OUR
REGION LATE ON WEDS AFTN...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES BTWN 30 AND
40 KNOTS. ALSO...HAVE NOTED 500MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40 KNOTS ACRS
NNY BY 18Z WEDS. AT THE SFC A WELL DEFINED SFC COLD FRNT WITH
CONVERGENCE WL BE LOCATED ACRS THE SLV/NNY AT 18Z...AND THRU MOST OF
OUR CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS TIMING ALONG WITH THE POTENT S/W ENERGY
WL BE DURING PEAK HEATING/GREATEST INSTABILITY...HELPING WITH ROBUST
UPDRAFTS AND STORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM PROGGED SFC BASED CAPE VALUES
ARE BTWN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG WITH LIS VALUES AROUND -5C...WITH SOME
HINTS AT A WEAK ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...WITH MODEST MID LVL LAPSE
RATES. SOUNDINGS CONT TO SUPPORT A UNIDIRECTIONAL FLW FROM SFC THRU
500MB...RESULTING IN ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS OF STORMS/MULTI CELLS.
THE PRIMARY SVR WX THREAT WL BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITHIN ANY BOWING
LINE SEGMENT. WL UPDATED HWO AND MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR.
STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF SYSTEM AND MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO NOT MENTION SVR IN THE ZONES ATTM.
ALSO...WITH PWS BTWN 1.75 AND 1.90" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
APPROACHING 12,000 FEET...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN POURS WL BE LIKELY.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS REMAIN UNCHANGED AHEAD OF BOUNDARY FOR
WEDS...AROUND 16C SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90
IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
MAY LIMIT FULL HEATING POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN PROGRESSES SLOWLY
BUT STEADILY SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH STEADIER
SHOWERS/THUNDER EXITING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS CENTRAL/SOUTH ACCORDINGLY...THEN TAPER
OFF THEREAFTER. BEHIND THE FRONT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
SOUTHWARD AS LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION. BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A
SECONDARY SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH
WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY NATURE OF THE PBL WILL CARRY ONLY
SLIGHT CHC POPS AT THIS POINT WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY.
THEREAFTER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND DEEPEN/AMPLIFY OVER TIME AS MID TO UPPER FLOW TRENDS
SOUTHWESTERLY AND GRADUALLY MOISTENS ACROSS NEW YORK/NEW ENGLAND.
THUS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE OFFERED FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WITHIN +/- 5 DEG OF SEASONAL
NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH COOLEST DAY ON THURSDAY
(73-79)...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WARMING BY ABOUT 2 DEG PER DAY
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. DIURNAL CUMULUS MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND GREENS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT TO SKC...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN AFTER
12-14Z TUESDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY SPARK AN
ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE DACKS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE NOT
ENOUGH TO EVEN MENTION VCSH SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF FORECAST. LIGHT
TERRAIN AND LAKE DRIVEN WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ABATE OVERNIGHT AND
RETURN AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH AN ISOLATED TERRAIN DRIVEN
SHOWER POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...JMG








000
FXUS61 KBTV 211719
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
119 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY...WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS
WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS. A POP UP ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
VERMONT...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT MONDAY...BASED ON 06Z GFS MOS AND THE LATEST
LAMP GUIDANCE HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND A PORTION OF
THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING CUMULUS AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. BEST
SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 716 AM EDT MONDAY...UPDATED TO REMOVE FOG IN GRIDS
AND ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER BASED ON CRNT SATL TRENDS. IR SHOWS
MOSTLY CLR SKIES ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...WITH SOME MID/UPPER LVL
CLOUDS ACRS THE DACKS. OTHERWISE...REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE SLIGHT CHCS FOR SHOWERS ACRS MAINLY THE
HIGHER TRRN OF THE DACKS INTO EXTREME NORTHERN VT. WATER VAPOR
SHOWS A VERY WEAK 5H VORT IN THE WESTERLY FLW ALOFT ACRS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ACRS NORTHERN NY
AROUND 18Z TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE FROM
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACRS THE SLV AND MORE SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT
ACRS THE EASTERN DACKS...WL INTERACT WITH JUST ENOUGH MID LVL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A CHC OF SHOWERS. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS ACRS
THE DACKS WITH SCHC ACRS THE NORTHERN GREENS AND SLV. SFC
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 200 AND 400 J/KG...SO
THUNDER CHCS WL BE MINIMAL. THINKING CPV/CT RIVER VALLEYS WL STAY
RAIN FREE TODAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO TODAY
WITH VALUES AROUND 12C...BUT CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOP MAY LIMIT SFC
HEATING ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN. WL MENTION HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
M/U 70S MTNS/NEK TO L/M 80S WARMER VALLEYS...THINKING AROUND 84F
FOR BTV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT MONDAY...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDS...WITH STRONG TO
POSSIBLE SVR STORMS.

MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS ON
TUESDAY...AHEAD OF POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED TROF ACRS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF BUILDING HGHTS...WARMING MID LVL
TEMPS/CAP...AND VERY DRY SOUNDING PROFILES WL LIMIT PRECIP CHCS ON
TUESDAY. WL MENTION JUST SCHC (20%) ACRS THE MTNS...BUT THINKING CWA
WL REMAIN DRY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN 15-17C BY 00Z
WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE L80S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 90F CPV/SLV AND
LWR CT RIVER VALLEY. THESE TEMPS WITH DWPTS READINGS IN THE 60S...WL
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE L90S ACRS THE WARMER VALLEY
LOCATIONS. A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ON TUES NIGHT/WEDS
MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY FLW AND DWPT TEMPS IN THE 60S. LOWS WL RANGE
FROM THE U50S DEEPER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 70F IN THE CPV/SLV.

MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDS...WITH SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE.
SYNOPTIC SCALE SHOWS DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WITH POTENT 5H VORT APPROACHING THE SLV BY 18Z WEDS.
THIS TROF WL HELP INCREASE THE MID/UPPER LVL WIND FIELDS ACRS OUR
REGION LATE ON WEDS AFTN...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES BTWN 30 AND
40 KNOTS. ALSO...HAVE NOTED 500MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40 KNOTS ACRS
NNY BY 18Z WEDS. AT THE SFC A WELL DEFINED SFC COLD FRNT WITH
CONVERGENCE WL BE LOCATED ACRS THE SLV/NNY AT 18Z...AND THRU MOST OF
OUR CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS TIMING ALONG WITH THE POTENT S/W ENERGY
WL BE DURING PEAK HEATING/GREATEST INSTABILITY...HELPING WITH ROBUST
UPDRAFTS AND STORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM PROGGED SFC BASED CAPE VALUES
ARE BTWN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG WITH LIS VALUES AROUND -5C...WITH SOME
HINTS AT A WEAK ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...WITH MODEST MID LVL LAPSE
RATES. SOUNDINGS CONT TO SUPPORT A UNIDIRECTIONAL FLW FROM SFC THRU
500MB...RESULTING IN ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS OF STORMS/MULTI CELLS.
THE PRIMARY SVR WX THREAT WL BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITHIN ANY BOWING
LINE SEGMENT. WL UPDATED HWO AND MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR.
STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF SYSTEM AND MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO NOT MENTION SVR IN THE ZONES ATTM.
ALSO...WITH PWS BTWN 1.75 AND 1.90" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
APPROACHING 12,000 FEET...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN POURS WL BE LIKELY.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS REMAIN UNCHANGED AHEAD OF BOUNDARY FOR
WEDS...AROUND 16C SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90
IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
MAY LIMIT FULL HEATING POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN PROGRESSES SLOWLY
BUT STEADILY SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH STEADIER
SHOWERS/THUNDER EXITING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS CENTRAL/SOUTH ACCORDINGLY...THEN TAPER
OFF THEREAFTER. BEHIND THE FRONT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
SOUTHWARD AS LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION. BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A
SECONDARY SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH
WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY NATURE OF THE PBL WILL CARRY ONLY
SLIGHT CHC POPS AT THIS POINT WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY.
THEREAFTER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND DEEPEN/AMPLIFY OVER TIME AS MID TO UPPER FLOW TRENDS
SOUTHWESTERLY AND GRADUALLY MOISTENS ACROSS NEW YORK/NEW ENGLAND.
THUS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE OFFERED FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WITHIN +/- 5 DEG OF SEASONAL
NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH COOLEST DAY ON THURSDAY
(73-79)...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WARMING BY ABOUT 2 DEG PER DAY
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. DIURNAL CUMULUS MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND GREENS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT TO SKC...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN AFTER
12-14Z TUESDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY SPARK AN
ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE DACKS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE NOT
ENOUGH TO EVEN MENTION VCSH SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF FORECAST. LIGHT
TERRAIN AND LAKE DRIVEN WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ABATE OVERNIGHT AND
RETURN AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH AN ISOLATED TERRAIN DRIVEN
SHOWER POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...JMG







000
FXUS61 KBTV 211719
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
119 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY...WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS
WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS. A POP UP ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
VERMONT...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT MONDAY...BASED ON 06Z GFS MOS AND THE LATEST
LAMP GUIDANCE HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND A PORTION OF
THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING CUMULUS AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. BEST
SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 716 AM EDT MONDAY...UPDATED TO REMOVE FOG IN GRIDS
AND ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER BASED ON CRNT SATL TRENDS. IR SHOWS
MOSTLY CLR SKIES ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...WITH SOME MID/UPPER LVL
CLOUDS ACRS THE DACKS. OTHERWISE...REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE SLIGHT CHCS FOR SHOWERS ACRS MAINLY THE
HIGHER TRRN OF THE DACKS INTO EXTREME NORTHERN VT. WATER VAPOR
SHOWS A VERY WEAK 5H VORT IN THE WESTERLY FLW ALOFT ACRS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ACRS NORTHERN NY
AROUND 18Z TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE FROM
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACRS THE SLV AND MORE SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT
ACRS THE EASTERN DACKS...WL INTERACT WITH JUST ENOUGH MID LVL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A CHC OF SHOWERS. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS ACRS
THE DACKS WITH SCHC ACRS THE NORTHERN GREENS AND SLV. SFC
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 200 AND 400 J/KG...SO
THUNDER CHCS WL BE MINIMAL. THINKING CPV/CT RIVER VALLEYS WL STAY
RAIN FREE TODAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO TODAY
WITH VALUES AROUND 12C...BUT CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOP MAY LIMIT SFC
HEATING ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN. WL MENTION HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
M/U 70S MTNS/NEK TO L/M 80S WARMER VALLEYS...THINKING AROUND 84F
FOR BTV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT MONDAY...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDS...WITH STRONG TO
POSSIBLE SVR STORMS.

MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS ON
TUESDAY...AHEAD OF POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED TROF ACRS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF BUILDING HGHTS...WARMING MID LVL
TEMPS/CAP...AND VERY DRY SOUNDING PROFILES WL LIMIT PRECIP CHCS ON
TUESDAY. WL MENTION JUST SCHC (20%) ACRS THE MTNS...BUT THINKING CWA
WL REMAIN DRY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN 15-17C BY 00Z
WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE L80S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 90F CPV/SLV AND
LWR CT RIVER VALLEY. THESE TEMPS WITH DWPTS READINGS IN THE 60S...WL
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE L90S ACRS THE WARMER VALLEY
LOCATIONS. A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ON TUES NIGHT/WEDS
MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY FLW AND DWPT TEMPS IN THE 60S. LOWS WL RANGE
FROM THE U50S DEEPER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 70F IN THE CPV/SLV.

MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDS...WITH SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE.
SYNOPTIC SCALE SHOWS DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WITH POTENT 5H VORT APPROACHING THE SLV BY 18Z WEDS.
THIS TROF WL HELP INCREASE THE MID/UPPER LVL WIND FIELDS ACRS OUR
REGION LATE ON WEDS AFTN...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES BTWN 30 AND
40 KNOTS. ALSO...HAVE NOTED 500MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40 KNOTS ACRS
NNY BY 18Z WEDS. AT THE SFC A WELL DEFINED SFC COLD FRNT WITH
CONVERGENCE WL BE LOCATED ACRS THE SLV/NNY AT 18Z...AND THRU MOST OF
OUR CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS TIMING ALONG WITH THE POTENT S/W ENERGY
WL BE DURING PEAK HEATING/GREATEST INSTABILITY...HELPING WITH ROBUST
UPDRAFTS AND STORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM PROGGED SFC BASED CAPE VALUES
ARE BTWN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG WITH LIS VALUES AROUND -5C...WITH SOME
HINTS AT A WEAK ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...WITH MODEST MID LVL LAPSE
RATES. SOUNDINGS CONT TO SUPPORT A UNIDIRECTIONAL FLW FROM SFC THRU
500MB...RESULTING IN ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS OF STORMS/MULTI CELLS.
THE PRIMARY SVR WX THREAT WL BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITHIN ANY BOWING
LINE SEGMENT. WL UPDATED HWO AND MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR.
STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF SYSTEM AND MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO NOT MENTION SVR IN THE ZONES ATTM.
ALSO...WITH PWS BTWN 1.75 AND 1.90" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
APPROACHING 12,000 FEET...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN POURS WL BE LIKELY.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS REMAIN UNCHANGED AHEAD OF BOUNDARY FOR
WEDS...AROUND 16C SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90
IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
MAY LIMIT FULL HEATING POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN PROGRESSES SLOWLY
BUT STEADILY SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH STEADIER
SHOWERS/THUNDER EXITING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS CENTRAL/SOUTH ACCORDINGLY...THEN TAPER
OFF THEREAFTER. BEHIND THE FRONT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
SOUTHWARD AS LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION. BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A
SECONDARY SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH
WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY NATURE OF THE PBL WILL CARRY ONLY
SLIGHT CHC POPS AT THIS POINT WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY.
THEREAFTER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND DEEPEN/AMPLIFY OVER TIME AS MID TO UPPER FLOW TRENDS
SOUTHWESTERLY AND GRADUALLY MOISTENS ACROSS NEW YORK/NEW ENGLAND.
THUS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE OFFERED FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WITHIN +/- 5 DEG OF SEASONAL
NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH COOLEST DAY ON THURSDAY
(73-79)...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WARMING BY ABOUT 2 DEG PER DAY
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. DIURNAL CUMULUS MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND GREENS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT TO SKC...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN AFTER
12-14Z TUESDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY SPARK AN
ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE DACKS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE NOT
ENOUGH TO EVEN MENTION VCSH SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF FORECAST. LIGHT
TERRAIN AND LAKE DRIVEN WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ABATE OVERNIGHT AND
RETURN AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH AN ISOLATED TERRAIN DRIVEN
SHOWER POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

12Z WED - 06Z THU...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH TURBULENCE...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

06Z THU - 00Z FRI...LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

00Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...JMG








000
FXUS61 KALY 211503
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
11100 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOME PATCHY CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND TODAY...MAYBE SPAWNING A STRAY
SHOWER BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST
ALLOWING FOR INCREASING SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY TOMORROW AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1100 AM EDT...SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THE CLOUDS ARE
BREAKING UP. HOWEVER...THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT LINGERS AND COULD BE
JUST ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS...MAINLY WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

THE 12Z ALY RAOB INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD MID LEVEL CAP AROUND 10,000
FEET WHICH WOULD LIKELY PREVENT ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWER FROM REACHING
TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ICE AND THUNDER...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
FREEZING LEVEL WAS NEAR 14,000 FEET. PWATS HOWEVER...ARE OVER AN
INCH...CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AND ENOUGH WITH SOME WEAK ASCENT
AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS.

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO RE-TOOL THE HOURLY GRIDS (NAMELY CLOUDS) BUT
BASED ON THE 12Z RAOB LEFT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ALONE.

THEREFORE..THE COMBINATION OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE COULD
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION LATER TODAY. THE
H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ARE
WEAK IMPULSES THAT COINCIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO TOUCH OFF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER DESPITE A CAP SEEN IN THE BUFR PROFILES STARTING AROUND
H650. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE THETA-E ADVECTIVE FIELDS SO WE
WILL RETAIN THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT FORECAST OF 20-30 POPS FOR
LOCATIONS MAINLY INTO EASTERN NY COUNTIES. UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE...HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 80S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MAINLY UPPER 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME DEPARTS LEAVING BEHIND RISING HEIGHTS. SO
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASING. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY
INTO THE 60S. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD ALLOW FOR SOME HZ/BR TO BE
OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

TUESDAY...A WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION. THERE REMAINS SUBTLE HINTS OF LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 YET THE BUFR PROFILES DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO
CAP CENTERED JUST ABOVE H700. THE GFS HAS LESS EMPHASIS ON THIS
CAP AND HIGHER MOISTURE COLUMN CONTENT WITH THE NAM DRIER IN THE
MID LEVELS AND A MUCH STRONGER CAP. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL WE
EVALUATE...THE QPF FIELDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWFA. SO WE WILL RETAIN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 80S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AND AROUND 80F FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S AS APPARENT
TEMPERATURES /HEAT INDEX/ CLIMB TO AROUND 90F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD CEASE WITHIN AN
HOUR OF SUNSET. A STRENGTHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FURTHER INCREASE
OUR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINT CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S.
COULD SEE MORE AREAS OF HAZE DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 70F FOR MOHAWK...MID HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND LOW-MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA.
WITH WARM TEMPS /VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S/ AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F/ AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EASILY DEVELOP...ESP
IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WE WILL NEED TO THE WATCH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF EXPECTED
INSTABILITY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 40
KTS...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS SOME NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT CROSSES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND IT MAY EVEN STALL AND REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AS WELL. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WED NIGHT/THURS...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR STRONGER
STORMS WILL DIMINISH DUE TO LESS INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE 60S FOR WED NIGHT...AND BE COOLER FOR THURSDAY WITH 70S TO NEAR
80.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS
WILL BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. IT WON/T BE
TOO OVERLY HUMID EITHER...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE US FROM CANADA. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE OVER OUR
AREA...SOME DIURNALLY FORCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE
FOR SUN AFTN AND EVENING...WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH JUST
SOME PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

THERE WILL BE SOME DIURNAL CU AND SOME ADDITIONAL PASSING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TODAY...WITH A BROAD WEAK TROUGH OVER THE AREA. A FEW
AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP WEST OF THE REGION...BUT MAY DRIFT
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KGFL/KALB TO WARRANT A VCSH IN THE TAF FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE WITH VERY LIGHT S-SW WINDS AT AROUND 5 KTS. ANY SHRA/TSRA
THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY EVENING.

MOST OF THE DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...BUT SOME SCT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP...ESP AT KGFL/KPSF...FOR
LATE IN THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY AND TUESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO INCREASE AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION THAT WILL BE WELL
ENTRENCHED INTO A HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING AND AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

AS HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE IN THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM










000
FXUS61 KALY 211503
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
11100 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOME PATCHY CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND TODAY...MAYBE SPAWNING A STRAY
SHOWER BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST
ALLOWING FOR INCREASING SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY TOMORROW AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1100 AM EDT...SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THE CLOUDS ARE
BREAKING UP. HOWEVER...THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT LINGERS AND COULD BE
JUST ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS...MAINLY WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

THE 12Z ALY RAOB INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD MID LEVEL CAP AROUND 10,000
FEET WHICH WOULD LIKELY PREVENT ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWER FROM REACHING
TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ICE AND THUNDER...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
FREEZING LEVEL WAS NEAR 14,000 FEET. PWATS HOWEVER...ARE OVER AN
INCH...CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AND ENOUGH WITH SOME WEAK ASCENT
AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS.

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO RE-TOOL THE HOURLY GRIDS (NAMELY CLOUDS) BUT
BASED ON THE 12Z RAOB LEFT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ALONE.

THEREFORE..THE COMBINATION OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE COULD
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION LATER TODAY. THE
H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ARE
WEAK IMPULSES THAT COINCIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO TOUCH OFF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER DESPITE A CAP SEEN IN THE BUFR PROFILES STARTING AROUND
H650. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE THETA-E ADVECTIVE FIELDS SO WE
WILL RETAIN THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT FORECAST OF 20-30 POPS FOR
LOCATIONS MAINLY INTO EASTERN NY COUNTIES. UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE...HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 80S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MAINLY UPPER 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME DEPARTS LEAVING BEHIND RISING HEIGHTS. SO
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASING. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY
INTO THE 60S. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD ALLOW FOR SOME HZ/BR TO BE
OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

TUESDAY...A WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION. THERE REMAINS SUBTLE HINTS OF LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 YET THE BUFR PROFILES DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO
CAP CENTERED JUST ABOVE H700. THE GFS HAS LESS EMPHASIS ON THIS
CAP AND HIGHER MOISTURE COLUMN CONTENT WITH THE NAM DRIER IN THE
MID LEVELS AND A MUCH STRONGER CAP. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL WE
EVALUATE...THE QPF FIELDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWFA. SO WE WILL RETAIN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 80S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AND AROUND 80F FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S AS APPARENT
TEMPERATURES /HEAT INDEX/ CLIMB TO AROUND 90F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD CEASE WITHIN AN
HOUR OF SUNSET. A STRENGTHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FURTHER INCREASE
OUR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINT CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S.
COULD SEE MORE AREAS OF HAZE DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 70F FOR MOHAWK...MID HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND LOW-MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA.
WITH WARM TEMPS /VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S/ AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F/ AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EASILY DEVELOP...ESP
IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WE WILL NEED TO THE WATCH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF EXPECTED
INSTABILITY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 40
KTS...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS SOME NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT CROSSES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND IT MAY EVEN STALL AND REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AS WELL. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WED NIGHT/THURS...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR STRONGER
STORMS WILL DIMINISH DUE TO LESS INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE 60S FOR WED NIGHT...AND BE COOLER FOR THURSDAY WITH 70S TO NEAR
80.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS
WILL BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. IT WON/T BE
TOO OVERLY HUMID EITHER...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE US FROM CANADA. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE OVER OUR
AREA...SOME DIURNALLY FORCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE
FOR SUN AFTN AND EVENING...WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH JUST
SOME PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

THERE WILL BE SOME DIURNAL CU AND SOME ADDITIONAL PASSING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TODAY...WITH A BROAD WEAK TROUGH OVER THE AREA. A FEW
AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP WEST OF THE REGION...BUT MAY DRIFT
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KGFL/KALB TO WARRANT A VCSH IN THE TAF FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE WITH VERY LIGHT S-SW WINDS AT AROUND 5 KTS. ANY SHRA/TSRA
THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY EVENING.

MOST OF THE DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...BUT SOME SCT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP...ESP AT KGFL/KPSF...FOR
LATE IN THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY AND TUESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO INCREASE AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION THAT WILL BE WELL
ENTRENCHED INTO A HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING AND AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

AS HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE IN THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM









000
FXUS61 KBTV 211445
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1045 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY...WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS
WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS. A POP UP ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
VERMONT...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT MONDAY...BASED ON 06Z GFS MOS AND THE LATEST
LAMP GUIDANCE HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND A PORTION OF
THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING CUMULUS AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME. BEST
SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 716 AM EDT MONDAY...UPDATED TO REMOVE FOG IN GRIDS
AND ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER BASED ON CRNT SATL TRENDS. IR SHOWS
MOSTLY CLR SKIES ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...WITH SOME MID/UPPER LVL
CLOUDS ACRS THE DACKS. OTHERWISE...REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE SLIGHT CHCS FOR SHOWERS ACRS MAINLY THE
HIGHER TRRN OF THE DACKS INTO EXTREME NORTHERN VT. WATER VAPOR
SHOWS A VERY WEAK 5H VORT IN THE WESTERLY FLW ALOFT ACRS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ACRS NORTHERN NY
AROUND 18Z TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE FROM
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACRS THE SLV AND MORE SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT
ACRS THE EASTERN DACKS...WL INTERACT WITH JUST ENOUGH MID LVL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A CHC OF SHOWERS. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS ACRS
THE DACKS WITH SCHC ACRS THE NORTHERN GREENS AND SLV. SFC
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 200 AND 400 J/KG...SO
THUNDER CHCS WL BE MINIMAL. THINKING CPV/CT RIVER VALLEYS WL STAY
RAIN FREE TODAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO TODAY
WITH VALUES AROUND 12C...BUT CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOP MAY LIMIT SFC
HEATING ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN. WL MENTION HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
M/U 70S MTNS/NEK TO L/M 80S WARMER VALLEYS...THINKING AROUND 84F
FOR BTV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT MONDAY...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDS...WITH STRONG TO
POSSIBLE SVR STORMS.

MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS ON
TUESDAY...AHEAD OF POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED TROF ACRS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF BUILDING HGHTS...WARMING MID LVL
TEMPS/CAP...AND VERY DRY SOUNDING PROFILES WL LIMIT PRECIP CHCS ON
TUESDAY. WL MENTION JUST SCHC (20%) ACRS THE MTNS...BUT THINKING CWA
WL REMAIN DRY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN 15-17C BY 00Z
WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE L80S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 90F CPV/SLV AND
LWR CT RIVER VALLEY. THESE TEMPS WITH DWPTS READINGS IN THE 60S...WL
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE L90S ACRS THE WARMER VALLEY
LOCATIONS. A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ON TUES NIGHT/WEDS
MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY FLW AND DWPT TEMPS IN THE 60S. LOWS WL RANGE
FROM THE U50S DEEPER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 70F IN THE CPV/SLV.

MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDS...WITH SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE.
SYNOPTIC SCALE SHOWS DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WITH POTENT 5H VORT APPROACHING THE SLV BY 18Z WEDS.
THIS TROF WL HELP INCREASE THE MID/UPPER LVL WIND FIELDS ACRS OUR
REGION LATE ON WEDS AFTN...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES BTWN 30 AND
40 KNOTS. ALSO...HAVE NOTED 500MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40 KNOTS ACRS
NNY BY 18Z WEDS. AT THE SFC A WELL DEFINED SFC COLD FRNT WITH
CONVERGENCE WL BE LOCATED ACRS THE SLV/NNY AT 18Z...AND THRU MOST OF
OUR CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS TIMING ALONG WITH THE POTENT S/W ENERGY
WL BE DURING PEAK HEATING/GREATEST INSTABILITY...HELPING WITH ROBUST
UPDRAFTS AND STORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM PROGGED SFC BASED CAPE VALUES
ARE BTWN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG WITH LIS VALUES AROUND -5C...WITH SOME
HINTS AT A WEAK ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...WITH MODEST MID LVL LAPSE
RATES. SOUNDINGS CONT TO SUPPORT A UNIDIRECTIONAL FLW FROM SFC THRU
500MB...RESULTING IN ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS OF STORMS/MULTI CELLS.
THE PRIMARY SVR WX THREAT WL BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITHIN ANY BOWING
LINE SEGMENT. WL UPDATED HWO AND MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR.
STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF SYSTEM AND MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO NOT MENTION SVR IN THE ZONES ATTM.
ALSO...WITH PWS BTWN 1.75 AND 1.90" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
APPROACHING 12,000 FEET...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN POURS WL BE LIKELY.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS REMAIN UNCHANGED AHEAD OF BOUNDARY FOR
WEDS...AROUND 16C SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90
IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
MAY LIMIT FULL HEATING POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN PROGRESSES SLOWLY
BUT STEADILY SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH STEADIER
SHOWERS/THUNDER EXITING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS CENTRAL/SOUTH ACCORDINGLY...THEN TAPER
OFF THEREAFTER. BEHIND THE FRONT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
SOUTHWARD AS LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION. BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A
SECONDARY SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH
WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY NATURE OF THE PBL WILL CARRY ONLY
SLIGHT CHC POPS AT THIS POINT WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY.
THEREAFTER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND DEEPEN/AMPLIFY OVER TIME AS MID TO UPPER FLOW TRENDS
SOUTHWESTERLY AND GRADUALLY MOISTENS ACROSS NEW YORK/NEW ENGLAND.
THUS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE OFFERED FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WITHIN +/- 5 DEG OF SEASONAL
NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH COOLEST DAY ON THURSDAY
(73-79)...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WARMING BY ABOUT 2 DEG PER DAY
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO CREATE SCT TO OCCNLY BKN MID
LVL CIGS FROM 050-100 AGL THROUGH 00Z THEN TRENDING CLEAR. WINDS
LIGHT AT 10 KTS OR LESS AND GOVERNED HEAVILY BY LAKE BREEZES
AND/OR TERRAIN INFLUENCES. COULD SEE A WIDELY SCT SHOWER OR AN
ISOLATED T-STORM WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBYS DURING THE 18-00Z TIME
FRAME ACROSS THE MTNS WITH BEST CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE IN THE
ADIRONDACKS. PAUCITY OF EXPECTED COVERAGE WARRANTS OMISSION FROM
THE FORECAST ATTM HOWEVER. AFTER 06Z TUE SOME HINTS OF PATCHY
BR/IFR AT KMPV/KSLK IN THIS MORNINGS GUIDANCE BUT WILL DEFER TO
LATER FORECASTS WHEN CONFIDENCE LEVELS CAN BE BETTER DETERMINED.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR.

12Z WED - 00Z SAT...VFR WITH SCT MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS A
COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION WEDS PM/NIGHT. EARLY
INDICATIONS THAT SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MOD/SVR TURBULENCE AND GUSTY WINDS/HAIL.
LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG








000
FXUS61 KALY 211235
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
830 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOME PATCHY CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND TODAY...MAYBE SPAWNING A STRAY
SHOWER BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST
ALLOWING FOR INCREASING SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY TOMORROW AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 830 AM EDT...SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATED A LOT OF A PATCHY
CLOUDS MOVING OVER OUR REGION. THESE WERE THE RESULT OF A WEAK
VORTICITY LOBES INDUCING SOME MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION.

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE MORE CLOUD COVER BUT BASED ON THE
12Z RAOB LEFT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON ALONE.

THE COMBINATION OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE COULD AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION LATER TODAY. THE H2O VAPOR
LOOP REVEALS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ARE WEAK
IMPULSES THAT COINCIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM. EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
DESPITE A CAP SEEN IN THE BUFR PROFILES STARTING AROUND H650. THIS
LINES UP WELL WITH THE THETA-E ADVECTIVE FIELDS SO WE WILL RETAIN
THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT FORECAST OF 20-30 POPS FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY
INTO EASTERN NY COUNTIES. UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE...HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND MAINLY UPPER 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME DEPARTS LEAVING BEHIND RISING HEIGHTS. SO
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASING. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY
INTO THE 60S. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD ALLOW FOR SOME HZ/BR TO BE
OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

TUESDAY...A WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION. THERE REMAINS SUBTLE HINTS OF LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 YET THE BUFR PROFILES DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO
CAP CENTERED JUST ABOVE H700. THE GFS HAS LESS EMPHASIS ON THIS
CAP AND HIGHER MOISTURE COLUMN CONTENT WITH THE NAM DRIER IN THE
MID LEVELS AND A MUCH STRONGER CAP. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL WE
EVALUATE...THE QPF FIELDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWFA. SO WE WILL RETAIN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 80S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AND AROUND 80F FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S AS APPARENT
TEMPERATURES /HEAT INDEX/ CLIMB TO AROUND 90F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD CEASE WITHIN AN
HOUR OF SUNSET. A STRENGTHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FURTHER INCREASE
OUR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINT CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S.
COULD SEE MORE AREAS OF HAZE DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 70F FOR MOHAWK...MID HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND LOW-MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA.
WITH WARM TEMPS /VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S/ AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F/ AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EASILY DEVELOP...ESP
IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WE WILL NEED TO THE WATCH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF EXPECTED
INSTABILITY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 40
KTS...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS SOME NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT CROSSES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND IT MAY EVEN STALL AND REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AS WELL. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WED NIGHT/THURS...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR STRONGER
STORMS WILL DIMINISH DUE TO LESS INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE 60S FOR WED NIGHT...AND BE COOLER FOR THURSDAY WITH 70S TO NEAR
80.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS
WILL BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. IT WON/T BE
TOO OVERLY HUMID EITHER...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE US FROM CANADA. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE OVER OUR
AREA...SOME DIURNALLY FORCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE
FOR SUN AFTN AND EVENING...WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH JUST
SOME PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

THERE WILL BE SOME DIURNAL CU AND SOME ADDITIONAL PASSING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TODAY...WITH A BROAD WEAK TROUGH OVER THE AREA. A FEW
AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP WEST OF THE REGION...BUT MAY DRIFT
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KGFL/KALB TO WARRANT A VCSH IN THE TAF FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE WITH VERY LIGHT S-SW WINDS AT AROUND 5 KTS. ANY SHRA/TSRA
THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY EVENING.

MOST OF THE DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...BUT SOME SCT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP...ESP AT KGFL/KPSF...FOR
LATE IN THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY AND TUESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO INCREASE AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION THAT WILL BE WELL
ENTRENCHED INTO A HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING AND AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

AS HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE IN THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM










000
FXUS61 KALY 211235
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
830 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOME PATCHY CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND TODAY...MAYBE SPAWNING A STRAY
SHOWER BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST
ALLOWING FOR INCREASING SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY TOMORROW AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 830 AM EDT...SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATED A LOT OF A PATCHY
CLOUDS MOVING OVER OUR REGION. THESE WERE THE RESULT OF A WEAK
VORTICITY LOBES INDUCING SOME MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION.

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE MORE CLOUD COVER BUT BASED ON THE
12Z RAOB LEFT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON ALONE.

THE COMBINATION OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE COULD AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION LATER TODAY. THE H2O VAPOR
LOOP REVEALS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ARE WEAK
IMPULSES THAT COINCIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM. EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
DESPITE A CAP SEEN IN THE BUFR PROFILES STARTING AROUND H650. THIS
LINES UP WELL WITH THE THETA-E ADVECTIVE FIELDS SO WE WILL RETAIN
THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT FORECAST OF 20-30 POPS FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY
INTO EASTERN NY COUNTIES. UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE...HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 80S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND MAINLY UPPER 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME DEPARTS LEAVING BEHIND RISING HEIGHTS. SO
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASING. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY
INTO THE 60S. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD ALLOW FOR SOME HZ/BR TO BE
OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

TUESDAY...A WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION. THERE REMAINS SUBTLE HINTS OF LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 YET THE BUFR PROFILES DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO
CAP CENTERED JUST ABOVE H700. THE GFS HAS LESS EMPHASIS ON THIS
CAP AND HIGHER MOISTURE COLUMN CONTENT WITH THE NAM DRIER IN THE
MID LEVELS AND A MUCH STRONGER CAP. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL WE
EVALUATE...THE QPF FIELDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWFA. SO WE WILL RETAIN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 80S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AND AROUND 80F FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S AS APPARENT
TEMPERATURES /HEAT INDEX/ CLIMB TO AROUND 90F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD CEASE WITHIN AN
HOUR OF SUNSET. A STRENGTHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FURTHER INCREASE
OUR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINT CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S.
COULD SEE MORE AREAS OF HAZE DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 70F FOR MOHAWK...MID HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND LOW-MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA.
WITH WARM TEMPS /VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S/ AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F/ AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EASILY DEVELOP...ESP
IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WE WILL NEED TO THE WATCH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF EXPECTED
INSTABILITY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 40
KTS...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS SOME NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT CROSSES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND IT MAY EVEN STALL AND REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AS WELL. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WED NIGHT/THURS...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR STRONGER
STORMS WILL DIMINISH DUE TO LESS INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE 60S FOR WED NIGHT...AND BE COOLER FOR THURSDAY WITH 70S TO NEAR
80.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS
WILL BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. IT WON/T BE
TOO OVERLY HUMID EITHER...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE US FROM CANADA. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE OVER OUR
AREA...SOME DIURNALLY FORCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE
FOR SUN AFTN AND EVENING...WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH JUST
SOME PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

THERE WILL BE SOME DIURNAL CU AND SOME ADDITIONAL PASSING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TODAY...WITH A BROAD WEAK TROUGH OVER THE AREA. A FEW
AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP WEST OF THE REGION...BUT MAY DRIFT
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KGFL/KALB TO WARRANT A VCSH IN THE TAF FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE WITH VERY LIGHT S-SW WINDS AT AROUND 5 KTS. ANY SHRA/TSRA
THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY EVENING.

MOST OF THE DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...BUT SOME SCT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP...ESP AT KGFL/KPSF...FOR
LATE IN THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY AND TUESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO INCREASE AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION THAT WILL BE WELL
ENTRENCHED INTO A HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING AND AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

AS HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE IN THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM









000
FXUS61 KBTV 211127
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
727 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY...WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS
WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS. A POP UP ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
VERMONT...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 716 AM EDT MONDAY...UPDATED TO REMOVE FOG IN GRIDS AND
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER BASED ON CRNT SATL TRENDS. IR SHOWS MOSTLY
CLR SKIES ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...WITH SOME MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS
ACRS THE DACKS. OTHERWISE...REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE SLIGHT CHCS FOR SHOWERS ACRS MAINLY THE
HIGHER TRRN OF THE DACKS INTO EXTREME NORTHERN VT. WATER VAPOR
SHOWS A VERY WEAK 5H VORT IN THE WESTERLY FLW ALOFT ACRS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ACRS NORTHERN NY
AROUND 18Z TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE FROM
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACRS THE SLV AND MORE SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT
ACRS THE EASTERN DACKS...WL INTERACT WITH JUST ENOUGH MID LVL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A CHC OF SHOWERS. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS ACRS
THE DACKS WITH SCHC ACRS THE NORTHERN GREENS AND SLV. SFC
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 200 AND 400 J/KG...SO
THUNDER CHCS WL BE MINIMAL. THINKING CPV/CT RIVER VALLEYS WL STAY
RAIN FREE TODAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO TODAY
WITH VALUES AROUND 12C...BUT CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOP MAY LIMIT SFC
HEATING ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN. WL MENTION HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
M/U 70S MTNS/NEK TO L/M 80S WARMER VALLEYS...THINKING AROUND 84F
FOR BTV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT MONDAY...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDS...WITH STRONG TO
POSSIBLE SVR STORMS.

MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS ON
TUESDAY...AHEAD OF POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED TROF ACRS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF BUILDING HGHTS...WARMING MID LVL
TEMPS/CAP...AND VERY DRY SOUNDING PROFILES WL LIMIT PRECIP CHCS ON
TUESDAY. WL MENTION JUST SCHC (20%) ACRS THE MTNS...BUT THINKING CWA
WL REMAIN DRY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN 15-17C BY 00Z
WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE L80S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 90F CPV/SLV AND
LWR CT RIVER VALLEY. THESE TEMPS WITH DWPTS READINGS IN THE 60S...WL
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE L90S ACRS THE WARMER VALLEY
LOCATIONS. A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ON TUES NIGHT/WEDS
MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY FLW AND DWPT TEMPS IN THE 60S. LOWS WL RANGE
FROM THE U50S DEEPER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 70F IN THE CPV/SLV.

MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDS...WITH SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE.
SYNOPTIC SCALE SHOWS DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WITH POTENT 5H VORT APPROACHING THE SLV BY 18Z WEDS.
THIS TROF WL HELP INCREASE THE MID/UPPER LVL WIND FIELDS ACRS OUR
REGION LATE ON WEDS AFTN...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES BTWN 30 AND
40 KNOTS. ALSO...HAVE NOTED 500MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40 KNOTS ACRS
NNY BY 18Z WEDS. AT THE SFC A WELL DEFINED SFC COLD FRNT WITH
CONVERGENCE WL BE LOCATED ACRS THE SLV/NNY AT 18Z...AND THRU MOST OF
OUR CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS TIMING ALONG WITH THE POTENT S/W ENERGY
WL BE DURING PEAK HEATING/GREATEST INSTABILITY...HELPING WITH ROBUST
UPDRAFTS AND STORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM PROGGED SFC BASED CAPE VALUES
ARE BTWN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG WITH LIS VALUES AROUND -5C...WITH SOME
HINTS AT A WEAK ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...WITH MODEST MID LVL LAPSE
RATES. SOUNDINGS CONT TO SUPPORT A UNIDIRECTIONAL FLW FROM SFC THRU
500MB...RESULTING IN ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS OF STORMS/MULTI CELLS.
THE PRIMARY SVR WX THREAT WL BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITHIN ANY BOWING
LINE SEGMENT. WL UPDATED HWO AND MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR.
STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF SYSTEM AND MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO NOT MENTION SVR IN THE ZONES ATTM.
ALSO...WITH PWS BTWN 1.75 AND 1.90" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
APPROACHING 12,000 FEET...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN POURS WL BE LIKELY.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS REMAIN UNCHANGED AHEAD OF BOUNDARY FOR
WEDS...AROUND 16C SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90
IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
MAY LIMIT FULL HEATING POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN PROGRESSES SLOWLY
BUT STEADILY SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH STEADIER
SHOWERS/THUNDER EXITING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS CENTRAL/SOUTH ACCORDINGLY...THEN TAPER
OFF THEREAFTER. BEHIND THE FRONT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
SOUTHWARD AS LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION. BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A
SECONDARY SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH
WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY NATURE OF THE PBL WILL CARRY ONLY
SLIGHT CHC POPS AT THIS POINT WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY.
THEREAFTER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND DEEPEN/AMPLIFY OVER TIME AS MID TO UPPER FLOW TRENDS
SOUTHWESTERLY AND GRADUALLY MOISTENS ACROSS NEW YORK/NEW ENGLAND.
THUS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE OFFERED FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WITHIN +/- 5 DEG OF SEASONAL
NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH COOLEST DAY ON THURSDAY
(73-79)...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WARMING BY ABOUT 2 DEG PER DAY
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO CREATE SCT TO OCCNLY BKN MID
LVL CIGS FROM 050-100 AGL THROUGH 00Z THEN TRENDING CLEAR. WINDS
LIGHT AT 10 KTS OR LESS AND GOVERNED HEAVILY BY LAKE BREEZES
AND/OR TERRAIN INFLUENCES. COULD SEE A WIDELY SCT SHOWER OR AN
ISOLATED T-STORM WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBYS DURING THE 18-00Z TIME
FRAME ACROSS THE MTNS WITH BEST CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE IN THE
ADIRONDACKS. PAUCITY OF EXPECTED COVERAGE WARRANTS OMISSION FROM
THE FORECAST ATTM HOWEVER. AFTER 06Z TUE SOME HINTS OF PATCHY
BR/IFR AT KMPV/KSLK IN THIS MORNINGS GUIDANCE BUT WILL DEFER TO
LATER FORECASTS WHEN CONFIDENCE LEVELS CAN BE BETTER DETERMINED.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR.

12Z WED - 00Z SAT...VFR WITH SCT MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS A
COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION WEDS PM/NIGHT. EARLY
INDICATIONS THAT SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MOD/SVR TURBULENCE AND GUSTY WINDS/HAIL.
LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG






000
FXUS61 KBTV 211127
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
727 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY...WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS
WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS. A POP UP ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
VERMONT...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 716 AM EDT MONDAY...UPDATED TO REMOVE FOG IN GRIDS AND
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER BASED ON CRNT SATL TRENDS. IR SHOWS MOSTLY
CLR SKIES ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...WITH SOME MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS
ACRS THE DACKS. OTHERWISE...REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE SLIGHT CHCS FOR SHOWERS ACRS MAINLY THE
HIGHER TRRN OF THE DACKS INTO EXTREME NORTHERN VT. WATER VAPOR
SHOWS A VERY WEAK 5H VORT IN THE WESTERLY FLW ALOFT ACRS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ACRS NORTHERN NY
AROUND 18Z TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE FROM
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACRS THE SLV AND MORE SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT
ACRS THE EASTERN DACKS...WL INTERACT WITH JUST ENOUGH MID LVL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A CHC OF SHOWERS. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS ACRS
THE DACKS WITH SCHC ACRS THE NORTHERN GREENS AND SLV. SFC
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 200 AND 400 J/KG...SO
THUNDER CHCS WL BE MINIMAL. THINKING CPV/CT RIVER VALLEYS WL STAY
RAIN FREE TODAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO TODAY
WITH VALUES AROUND 12C...BUT CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOP MAY LIMIT SFC
HEATING ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN. WL MENTION HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
M/U 70S MTNS/NEK TO L/M 80S WARMER VALLEYS...THINKING AROUND 84F
FOR BTV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT MONDAY...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDS...WITH STRONG TO
POSSIBLE SVR STORMS.

MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS ON
TUESDAY...AHEAD OF POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED TROF ACRS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF BUILDING HGHTS...WARMING MID LVL
TEMPS/CAP...AND VERY DRY SOUNDING PROFILES WL LIMIT PRECIP CHCS ON
TUESDAY. WL MENTION JUST SCHC (20%) ACRS THE MTNS...BUT THINKING CWA
WL REMAIN DRY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN 15-17C BY 00Z
WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE L80S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 90F CPV/SLV AND
LWR CT RIVER VALLEY. THESE TEMPS WITH DWPTS READINGS IN THE 60S...WL
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE L90S ACRS THE WARMER VALLEY
LOCATIONS. A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ON TUES NIGHT/WEDS
MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY FLW AND DWPT TEMPS IN THE 60S. LOWS WL RANGE
FROM THE U50S DEEPER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 70F IN THE CPV/SLV.

MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDS...WITH SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE.
SYNOPTIC SCALE SHOWS DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WITH POTENT 5H VORT APPROACHING THE SLV BY 18Z WEDS.
THIS TROF WL HELP INCREASE THE MID/UPPER LVL WIND FIELDS ACRS OUR
REGION LATE ON WEDS AFTN...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES BTWN 30 AND
40 KNOTS. ALSO...HAVE NOTED 500MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40 KNOTS ACRS
NNY BY 18Z WEDS. AT THE SFC A WELL DEFINED SFC COLD FRNT WITH
CONVERGENCE WL BE LOCATED ACRS THE SLV/NNY AT 18Z...AND THRU MOST OF
OUR CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS TIMING ALONG WITH THE POTENT S/W ENERGY
WL BE DURING PEAK HEATING/GREATEST INSTABILITY...HELPING WITH ROBUST
UPDRAFTS AND STORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM PROGGED SFC BASED CAPE VALUES
ARE BTWN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG WITH LIS VALUES AROUND -5C...WITH SOME
HINTS AT A WEAK ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...WITH MODEST MID LVL LAPSE
RATES. SOUNDINGS CONT TO SUPPORT A UNIDIRECTIONAL FLW FROM SFC THRU
500MB...RESULTING IN ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS OF STORMS/MULTI CELLS.
THE PRIMARY SVR WX THREAT WL BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITHIN ANY BOWING
LINE SEGMENT. WL UPDATED HWO AND MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR.
STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF SYSTEM AND MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO NOT MENTION SVR IN THE ZONES ATTM.
ALSO...WITH PWS BTWN 1.75 AND 1.90" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
APPROACHING 12,000 FEET...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN POURS WL BE LIKELY.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS REMAIN UNCHANGED AHEAD OF BOUNDARY FOR
WEDS...AROUND 16C SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90
IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
MAY LIMIT FULL HEATING POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN PROGRESSES SLOWLY
BUT STEADILY SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH STEADIER
SHOWERS/THUNDER EXITING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS CENTRAL/SOUTH ACCORDINGLY...THEN TAPER
OFF THEREAFTER. BEHIND THE FRONT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
SOUTHWARD AS LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION. BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A
SECONDARY SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH
WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY NATURE OF THE PBL WILL CARRY ONLY
SLIGHT CHC POPS AT THIS POINT WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY.
THEREAFTER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND DEEPEN/AMPLIFY OVER TIME AS MID TO UPPER FLOW TRENDS
SOUTHWESTERLY AND GRADUALLY MOISTENS ACROSS NEW YORK/NEW ENGLAND.
THUS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE OFFERED FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WITHIN +/- 5 DEG OF SEASONAL
NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH COOLEST DAY ON THURSDAY
(73-79)...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WARMING BY ABOUT 2 DEG PER DAY
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO CREATE SCT TO OCCNLY BKN MID
LVL CIGS FROM 050-100 AGL THROUGH 00Z THEN TRENDING CLEAR. WINDS
LIGHT AT 10 KTS OR LESS AND GOVERNED HEAVILY BY LAKE BREEZES
AND/OR TERRAIN INFLUENCES. COULD SEE A WIDELY SCT SHOWER OR AN
ISOLATED T-STORM WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBYS DURING THE 18-00Z TIME
FRAME ACROSS THE MTNS WITH BEST CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE IN THE
ADIRONDACKS. PAUCITY OF EXPECTED COVERAGE WARRANTS OMISSION FROM
THE FORECAST ATTM HOWEVER. AFTER 06Z TUE SOME HINTS OF PATCHY
BR/IFR AT KMPV/KSLK IN THIS MORNINGS GUIDANCE BUT WILL DEFER TO
LATER FORECASTS WHEN CONFIDENCE LEVELS CAN BE BETTER DETERMINED.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR.

12Z WED - 00Z SAT...VFR WITH SCT MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS A
COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION WEDS PM/NIGHT. EARLY
INDICATIONS THAT SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MOD/SVR TURBULENCE AND GUSTY WINDS/HAIL.
LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
TRENDING MAINLY DRY THEREAFTER AS FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG







000
FXUS61 KBTV 211118
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY...WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS
WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS. A POP UP ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
VERMONT...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 716 AM EDT MONDAY...UPDATED TO REMOVE FOG IN GRIDS AND
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER BASED ON CRNT SATL TRENDS. IR SHOWS MOSTLY
CLR SKIES ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...WITH SOME MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS
ACRS THE DACKS. OTHERWISE...REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE SLIGHT CHCS FOR SHOWERS ACRS MAINLY THE
HIGHER TRRN OF THE DACKS INTO EXTREME NORTHERN VT. WATER VAPOR
SHOWS A VERY WEAK 5H VORT IN THE WESTERLY FLW ALOFT ACRS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ACRS NORTHERN NY
AROUND 18Z TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE FROM
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACRS THE SLV AND MORE SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT
ACRS THE EASTERN DACKS...WL INTERACT WITH JUST ENOUGH MID LVL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A CHC OF SHOWERS. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS ACRS
THE DACKS WITH SCHC ACRS THE NORTHERN GREENS AND SLV. SFC
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 200 AND 400 J/KG...SO
THUNDER CHCS WL BE MINIMAL. THINKING CPV/CT RIVER VALLEYS WL STAY
RAIN FREE TODAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO TODAY
WITH VALUES AROUND 12C...BUT CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOP MAY LIMIT SFC
HEATING ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN. WL MENTION HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
M/U 70S MTNS/NEK TO L/M 80S WARMER VALLEYS...THINKING AROUND 84F
FOR BTV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT MONDAY...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDS...WITH STRONG TO
POSSIBLE SVR STORMS.

MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS ON
TUESDAY...AHEAD OF POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED TROF ACRS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF BUILDING HGHTS...WARMING MID LVL
TEMPS/CAP...AND VERY DRY SOUNDING PROFILES WL LIMIT PRECIP CHCS ON
TUESDAY. WL MENTION JUST SCHC (20%) ACRS THE MTNS...BUT THINKING CWA
WL REMAIN DRY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN 15-17C BY 00Z
WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE L80S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 90F CPV/SLV AND
LWR CT RIVER VALLEY. THESE TEMPS WITH DWPTS READINGS IN THE 60S...WL
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE L90S ACRS THE WARMER VALLEY
LOCATIONS. A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ON TUES NIGHT/WEDS
MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY FLW AND DWPT TEMPS IN THE 60S. LOWS WL RANGE
FROM THE U50S DEEPER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 70F IN THE CPV/SLV.

MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDS...WITH SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE.
SYNOPTIC SCALE SHOWS DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WITH POTENT 5H VORT APPROACHING THE SLV BY 18Z WEDS.
THIS TROF WL HELP INCREASE THE MID/UPPER LVL WIND FIELDS ACRS OUR
REGION LATE ON WEDS AFTN...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES BTWN 30 AND
40 KNOTS. ALSO...HAVE NOTED 500MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40 KNOTS ACRS
NNY BY 18Z WEDS. AT THE SFC A WELL DEFINED SFC COLD FRNT WITH
CONVERGENCE WL BE LOCATED ACRS THE SLV/NNY AT 18Z...AND THRU MOST OF
OUR CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS TIMING ALONG WITH THE POTENT S/W ENERGY
WL BE DURING PEAK HEATING/GREATEST INSTABILITY...HELPING WITH ROBUST
UPDRAFTS AND STORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM PROGGED SFC BASED CAPE VALUES
ARE BTWN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG WITH LIS VALUES AROUND -5C...WITH SOME
HINTS AT A WEAK ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...WITH MODEST MID LVL LAPSE
RATES. SOUNDINGS CONT TO SUPPORT A UNIDIRECTIONAL FLW FROM SFC THRU
500MB...RESULTING IN ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS OF STORMS/MULTI CELLS.
THE PRIMARY SVR WX THREAT WL BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITHIN ANY BOWING
LINE SEGMENT. WL UPDATED HWO AND MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR.
STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF SYSTEM AND MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO NOT MENTION SVR IN THE ZONES ATTM.
ALSO...WITH PWS BTWN 1.75 AND 1.90" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
APPROACHING 12,000 FEET...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN POURS WL BE LIKELY.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS REMAIN UNCHANGED AHEAD OF BOUNDARY FOR
WEDS...AROUND 16C SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90
IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
MAY LIMIT FULL HEATING POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN PROGRESSES SLOWLY
BUT STEADILY SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH STEADIER
SHOWERS/THUNDER EXITING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS CENTRAL/SOUTH ACCORDINGLY...THEN TAPER
OFF THEREAFTER. BEHIND THE FRONT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
SOUTHWARD AS LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION. BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A
SECONDARY SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH
WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY NATURE OF THE PBL WILL CARRY ONLY
SLIGHT CHC POPS AT THIS POINT WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY.
THEREAFTER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND DEEPEN/AMPLIFY OVER TIME AS MID TO UPPER FLOW TRENDS
SOUTHWESTERLY AND GRADUALLY MOISTENS ACROSS NEW YORK/NEW ENGLAND.
THUS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE OFFERED FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WITHIN +/- 5 DEG OF SEASONAL
NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH COOLEST DAY ON THURSDAY
(73-79)...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WARMING BY ABOUT 2 DEG PER DAY
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN BR AT
KMPV/KSLK AND POSSIBLY AT KMSS IN THE 07-12Z TIME FRAME...VFR
CONDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TO CREATE SCT TO OCCNLY BKN MID LVL CIGS FROM 050-100 AGL THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER LIGHT WINDS AT 10 KTS OR LESS...GOVERNED HEAVILY
BY LAKE BREEZES AND/OR TERRAIN INFLUENCES. COULD SEE A WIDELY SCT
SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED T-STORM DURING THE 18-00Z TIME FRAME ACROSS
THE MTNS WITH BEST CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.
PAUCITY OF EXPECTED COVERAGE WARRANTS OMISSION FROM THE FORECAST
ATTM HOWEVER.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION WEDS PM/NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
IN AND /NEAR STORMS. LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURS MORNING.

00Z FRI - 00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OVER HIR TRRN PSBL.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/RJS









000
FXUS61 KBTV 211118
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY...WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS
WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS. A POP UP ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
VERMONT...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 716 AM EDT MONDAY...UPDATED TO REMOVE FOG IN GRIDS AND
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER BASED ON CRNT SATL TRENDS. IR SHOWS MOSTLY
CLR SKIES ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...WITH SOME MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS
ACRS THE DACKS. OTHERWISE...REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE SLIGHT CHCS FOR SHOWERS ACRS MAINLY THE
HIGHER TRRN OF THE DACKS INTO EXTREME NORTHERN VT. WATER VAPOR
SHOWS A VERY WEAK 5H VORT IN THE WESTERLY FLW ALOFT ACRS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ACRS NORTHERN NY
AROUND 18Z TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE FROM
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACRS THE SLV AND MORE SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT
ACRS THE EASTERN DACKS...WL INTERACT WITH JUST ENOUGH MID LVL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A CHC OF SHOWERS. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS ACRS
THE DACKS WITH SCHC ACRS THE NORTHERN GREENS AND SLV. SFC
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 200 AND 400 J/KG...SO
THUNDER CHCS WL BE MINIMAL. THINKING CPV/CT RIVER VALLEYS WL STAY
RAIN FREE TODAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO TODAY
WITH VALUES AROUND 12C...BUT CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOP MAY LIMIT SFC
HEATING ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN. WL MENTION HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
M/U 70S MTNS/NEK TO L/M 80S WARMER VALLEYS...THINKING AROUND 84F
FOR BTV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT MONDAY...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDS...WITH STRONG TO
POSSIBLE SVR STORMS.

MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS ON
TUESDAY...AHEAD OF POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED TROF ACRS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF BUILDING HGHTS...WARMING MID LVL
TEMPS/CAP...AND VERY DRY SOUNDING PROFILES WL LIMIT PRECIP CHCS ON
TUESDAY. WL MENTION JUST SCHC (20%) ACRS THE MTNS...BUT THINKING CWA
WL REMAIN DRY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN 15-17C BY 00Z
WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE L80S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 90F CPV/SLV AND
LWR CT RIVER VALLEY. THESE TEMPS WITH DWPTS READINGS IN THE 60S...WL
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE L90S ACRS THE WARMER VALLEY
LOCATIONS. A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ON TUES NIGHT/WEDS
MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY FLW AND DWPT TEMPS IN THE 60S. LOWS WL RANGE
FROM THE U50S DEEPER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 70F IN THE CPV/SLV.

MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDS...WITH SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE.
SYNOPTIC SCALE SHOWS DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WITH POTENT 5H VORT APPROACHING THE SLV BY 18Z WEDS.
THIS TROF WL HELP INCREASE THE MID/UPPER LVL WIND FIELDS ACRS OUR
REGION LATE ON WEDS AFTN...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES BTWN 30 AND
40 KNOTS. ALSO...HAVE NOTED 500MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40 KNOTS ACRS
NNY BY 18Z WEDS. AT THE SFC A WELL DEFINED SFC COLD FRNT WITH
CONVERGENCE WL BE LOCATED ACRS THE SLV/NNY AT 18Z...AND THRU MOST OF
OUR CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS TIMING ALONG WITH THE POTENT S/W ENERGY
WL BE DURING PEAK HEATING/GREATEST INSTABILITY...HELPING WITH ROBUST
UPDRAFTS AND STORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM PROGGED SFC BASED CAPE VALUES
ARE BTWN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG WITH LIS VALUES AROUND -5C...WITH SOME
HINTS AT A WEAK ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...WITH MODEST MID LVL LAPSE
RATES. SOUNDINGS CONT TO SUPPORT A UNIDIRECTIONAL FLW FROM SFC THRU
500MB...RESULTING IN ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS OF STORMS/MULTI CELLS.
THE PRIMARY SVR WX THREAT WL BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITHIN ANY BOWING
LINE SEGMENT. WL UPDATED HWO AND MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR.
STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF SYSTEM AND MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO NOT MENTION SVR IN THE ZONES ATTM.
ALSO...WITH PWS BTWN 1.75 AND 1.90" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
APPROACHING 12,000 FEET...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN POURS WL BE LIKELY.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS REMAIN UNCHANGED AHEAD OF BOUNDARY FOR
WEDS...AROUND 16C SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90
IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
MAY LIMIT FULL HEATING POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN PROGRESSES SLOWLY
BUT STEADILY SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH STEADIER
SHOWERS/THUNDER EXITING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS CENTRAL/SOUTH ACCORDINGLY...THEN TAPER
OFF THEREAFTER. BEHIND THE FRONT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
SOUTHWARD AS LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION. BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A
SECONDARY SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH
WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY NATURE OF THE PBL WILL CARRY ONLY
SLIGHT CHC POPS AT THIS POINT WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY.
THEREAFTER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND DEEPEN/AMPLIFY OVER TIME AS MID TO UPPER FLOW TRENDS
SOUTHWESTERLY AND GRADUALLY MOISTENS ACROSS NEW YORK/NEW ENGLAND.
THUS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE OFFERED FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WITHIN +/- 5 DEG OF SEASONAL
NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH COOLEST DAY ON THURSDAY
(73-79)...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WARMING BY ABOUT 2 DEG PER DAY
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN BR AT
KMPV/KSLK AND POSSIBLY AT KMSS IN THE 07-12Z TIME FRAME...VFR
CONDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TO CREATE SCT TO OCCNLY BKN MID LVL CIGS FROM 050-100 AGL THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER LIGHT WINDS AT 10 KTS OR LESS...GOVERNED HEAVILY
BY LAKE BREEZES AND/OR TERRAIN INFLUENCES. COULD SEE A WIDELY SCT
SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED T-STORM DURING THE 18-00Z TIME FRAME ACROSS
THE MTNS WITH BEST CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.
PAUCITY OF EXPECTED COVERAGE WARRANTS OMISSION FROM THE FORECAST
ATTM HOWEVER.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION WEDS PM/NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
IN AND /NEAR STORMS. LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURS MORNING.

00Z FRI - 00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OVER HIR TRRN PSBL.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/RJS








000
FXUS61 KALY 211025
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
625 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
THEREAFTER...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...PER THE IR CHANNEL IMAGERY...VARIABLE CLOUD
COVER REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
VORT LOBE AS SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS
THE REGION AND SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IN FACT...THE
COMBINATION OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE COULD AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION LATER TODAY. THE H2O VAPOR
LOOP REVEALS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ARE WEAK
IMPULSES THAT COINCIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO TOUCH OFF A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM. EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER DESPITE A CAP SEEN IN THE BUFR PROFILES STARTING
AROUND H650. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE THETA-E ADVECTIVE FIELDS
SO WE WILL RETAIN THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT FORECAST OF 20-30 POPS
FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY INTO EASTERN NY COUNTIES. UNDER A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE...HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID
80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MAINLY UPPER 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME DEPARTS LEAVING BEHIND RISING HEIGHTS. SO
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASING. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY
INTO THE 60S. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD ALLOW FOR SOME HZ/BR TO BE
OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

TUESDAY...A WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION. THERE REMAINS SUBTLE HINTS OF LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 YET THE BUFR PROFILES DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO
CAP CENTERED JUST ABOVE H700. THE GFS HAS LESS EMPHASIS ON THIS
CAP AND HIGHER MOISTURE COLUMN CONTENT WITH THE NAM DRIER IN THE
MID LEVELS AND A MUCH STRONGER CAP. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL WE
EVALUATE...THE QPF FIELDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWFA. SO WE WILL RETAIN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 80S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AND AROUND 80F FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S AS APPARENT
TEMPERATURES /HEAT INDEX/ CLIMB TO AROUND 90F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD CEASE WITHIN AN
HOUR OF SUNSET. A STRENGTHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FURTHER INCREASE
OUR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINT CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S.
COULD SEE MORE AREAS OF HAZE DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 70F FOR MOHAWK...MID HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND LOW-MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA.
WITH WARM TEMPS /VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S/ AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F/ AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EASILY DEVELOP...ESP
IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WE WILL NEED TO THE WATCH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF EXPECTED
INSTABILITY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 40
KTS...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS SOME NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT CROSSES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND IT MAY EVEN STALL AND REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AS WELL. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WED NIGHT/THURS...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR STRONGER
STORMS WILL DIMINISH DUE TO LESS INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE 60S FOR WED NIGHT...AND BE COOLER FOR THURSDAY WITH 70S TO NEAR
80.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS
WILL BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. IT WON/T BE
TOO OVERLY HUMID EITHER...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE US FROM CANADA. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE OVER OUR
AREA...SOME DIURNALLY FORCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE
FOR SUN AFTN AND EVENING...WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH JUST
SOME PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

THERE WILL BE SOME DIURNAL CU AND SOME ADDITIONAL PASSING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TODAY...WITH A BROAD WEAK TROUGH OVER THE AREA. A FEW
AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP WEST OF THE REGION...BUT MAY DRIFT
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KGFL/KALB TO WARRANT A VCSH IN THE TAF FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE WITH VERY LIGHT S-SW WINDS AT AROUND 5 KTS. ANY SHRA/TSRA
THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY EVENING.

MOST OF THE DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...BUT SOME SCT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP...ESP AT KGFL/KPSF...FOR
LATE IN THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY AND TUESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO INCREASE AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION THAT WILL BE WELL
ENTRENCHED INTO A HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING AND AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

AS HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE IN THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY







000
FXUS61 KALY 211025
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
625 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
THEREAFTER...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...PER THE IR CHANNEL IMAGERY...VARIABLE CLOUD
COVER REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
VORT LOBE AS SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS
THE REGION AND SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IN FACT...THE
COMBINATION OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE COULD AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION LATER TODAY. THE H2O VAPOR
LOOP REVEALS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ARE WEAK
IMPULSES THAT COINCIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO TOUCH OFF A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM. EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER DESPITE A CAP SEEN IN THE BUFR PROFILES STARTING
AROUND H650. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE THETA-E ADVECTIVE FIELDS
SO WE WILL RETAIN THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT FORECAST OF 20-30 POPS
FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY INTO EASTERN NY COUNTIES. UNDER A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE...HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID
80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MAINLY UPPER 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME DEPARTS LEAVING BEHIND RISING HEIGHTS. SO
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASING. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY
INTO THE 60S. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD ALLOW FOR SOME HZ/BR TO BE
OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

TUESDAY...A WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION. THERE REMAINS SUBTLE HINTS OF LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 YET THE BUFR PROFILES DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO
CAP CENTERED JUST ABOVE H700. THE GFS HAS LESS EMPHASIS ON THIS
CAP AND HIGHER MOISTURE COLUMN CONTENT WITH THE NAM DRIER IN THE
MID LEVELS AND A MUCH STRONGER CAP. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL WE
EVALUATE...THE QPF FIELDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWFA. SO WE WILL RETAIN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 80S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AND AROUND 80F FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S AS APPARENT
TEMPERATURES /HEAT INDEX/ CLIMB TO AROUND 90F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD CEASE WITHIN AN
HOUR OF SUNSET. A STRENGTHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FURTHER INCREASE
OUR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINT CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S.
COULD SEE MORE AREAS OF HAZE DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 70F FOR MOHAWK...MID HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND LOW-MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA.
WITH WARM TEMPS /VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S/ AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F/ AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EASILY DEVELOP...ESP
IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WE WILL NEED TO THE WATCH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF EXPECTED
INSTABILITY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 40
KTS...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS SOME NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT CROSSES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND IT MAY EVEN STALL AND REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AS WELL. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WED NIGHT/THURS...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR STRONGER
STORMS WILL DIMINISH DUE TO LESS INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE 60S FOR WED NIGHT...AND BE COOLER FOR THURSDAY WITH 70S TO NEAR
80.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS
WILL BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. IT WON/T BE
TOO OVERLY HUMID EITHER...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE US FROM CANADA. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE OVER OUR
AREA...SOME DIURNALLY FORCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE
FOR SUN AFTN AND EVENING...WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH JUST
SOME PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

THERE WILL BE SOME DIURNAL CU AND SOME ADDITIONAL PASSING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TODAY...WITH A BROAD WEAK TROUGH OVER THE AREA. A FEW
AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP WEST OF THE REGION...BUT MAY DRIFT
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KGFL/KALB TO WARRANT A VCSH IN THE TAF FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE WITH VERY LIGHT S-SW WINDS AT AROUND 5 KTS. ANY SHRA/TSRA
THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY EVENING.

MOST OF THE DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...BUT SOME SCT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP...ESP AT KGFL/KPSF...FOR
LATE IN THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY
SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY AND TUESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO INCREASE AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION THAT WILL BE WELL
ENTRENCHED INTO A HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING AND AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

AS HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE IN THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY








000
FXUS61 KBTV 210753
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY...WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS
WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS. A POP UP ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
VERMONT...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT MONDAY...FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE SLIGHT CHCS FOR
SHOWERS ACRS MAINLY THE HIGHER TRRN OF THE DACKS INTO EXTREME
NORTHERN VT. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A VERY WEAK 5H VORT IN THE WESTERLY
FLW ALOFT ACRS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE
ACRS NORTHERN NY AROUND 18Z TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE FROM SOUTHWEST WINDS ACRS THE SLV AND MORE SOUTHERLY
WIND COMPONENT ACRS THE EASTERN DACKS...WL INTERACT WITH JUST
ENOUGH MID LVL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A CHC OF SHOWERS. WL MENTION
LOW CHC POPS ACRS THE DACKS WITH SCHC ACRS THE NORTHERN GREENS AND
SLV. SFC INSTABILITY IS LIMITED WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 200 AND 400
J/KG...SO THUNDER CHCS WL BE MINIMAL. THINKING CPV/CT RIVER
VALLEYS WL STAY RAIN FREE TODAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER
DEGREE OR SO TODAY WITH VALUES AROUND 12C...BUT CUMULUS CLOUD
DEVELOP MAY LIMIT SFC HEATING ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN. WL MENTION
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE M/U 70S MTNS/NEK TO L/M 80S WARMER
VALLEYS...THINKING AROUND 84F FOR BTV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT MONDAY...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDS...WITH STRONG TO
POSSIBLE SVR STORMS.

MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS ON
TUESDAY...AHEAD OF POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED TROF ACRS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF BUILDING HGHTS...WARMING MID LVL
TEMPS/CAP...AND VERY DRY SOUNDING PROFILES WL LIMIT PRECIP CHCS ON
TUESDAY. WL MENTION JUST SCHC (20%) ACRS THE MTNS...BUT THINKING CWA
WL REMAIN DRY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS CLIMB BTWN 15-17C BY 00Z
WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE L80S MTNS/NEK TO NEAR 90F CPV/SLV AND
LWR CT RIVER VALLEY. THESE TEMPS WITH DWPTS READINGS IN THE 60S...WL
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE L90S ACRS THE WARMER VALLEY
LOCATIONS. A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ON TUES NIGHT/WEDS
MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY FLW AND DWPT TEMPS IN THE 60S. LOWS WL RANGE
FROM THE U50S DEEPER MTN VALLEYS TO NEAR 70F IN THE CPV/SLV.

MANY INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDS...WITH SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE.
SYNOPTIC SCALE SHOWS DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WITH POTENT 5H VORT APPROACHING THE SLV BY 18Z WEDS.
THIS TROF WL HELP INCREASE THE MID/UPPER LVL WIND FIELDS ACRS OUR
REGION LATE ON WEDS AFTN...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES BTWN 30 AND
40 KNOTS. ALSO...HAVE NOTED 500MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40 KNOTS ACRS
NNY BY 18Z WEDS. AT THE SFC A WELL DEFINED SFC COLD FRNT WITH
CONVERGENCE WL BE LOCATED ACRS THE SLV/NNY AT 18Z...AND THRU MOST OF
OUR CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS TIMING ALONG WITH THE POTENT S/W ENERGY
WL BE DURING PEAK HEATING/GREATEST INSTABILITY...HELPING WITH ROBUST
UPDRAFTS AND STORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM PROGGED SFC BASED CAPE VALUES
ARE BTWN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG WITH LIS VALUES AROUND -5C...WITH SOME
HINTS AT A WEAK ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...WITH MODEST MID LVL LAPSE
RATES. SOUNDINGS CONT TO SUPPORT A UNIDIRECTIONAL FLW FROM SFC THRU
500MB...RESULTING IN ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS OF STORMS/MULTI CELLS.
THE PRIMARY SVR WX THREAT WL BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITHIN ANY BOWING
LINE SEGMENT. WL UPDATED HWO AND MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR.
STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF SYSTEM AND MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO NOT MENTION SVR IN THE ZONES ATTM.
ALSO...WITH PWS BTWN 1.75 AND 1.90" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
APPROACHING 12,000 FEET...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN POURS WL BE LIKELY.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS REMAIN UNCHANGED AHEAD OF BOUNDARY FOR
WEDS...AROUND 16C SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90
IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
MAY LIMIT FULL HEATING POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN PROGRESSES SLOWLY
BUT STEADILY SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH STEADIER
SHOWERS/THUNDER EXITING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS CENTRAL/SOUTH ACCORDINGLY...THEN TAPER
OFF THEREAFTER. BEHIND THE FRONT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
SOUTHWARD AS LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION. BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A
SECONDARY SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH
WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY NATURE OF THE PBL WILL CARRY ONLY
SLIGHT CHC POPS AT THIS POINT WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY.
THEREAFTER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND DEEPEN/AMPLIFY OVER TIME AS MID TO UPPER FLOW TRENDS
SOUTHWESTERLY AND GRADUALLY MOISTENS ACROSS NEW YORK/NEW ENGLAND.
THUS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE OFFERED FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WITHIN +/- 5 DEG OF SEASONAL
NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH COOLEST DAY ON THURSDAY
(73-79)...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WARMING BY ABOUT 2 DEG PER DAY
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN BR AT
KMPV/KSLK AND POSSIBLY AT KMSS IN THE 07-12Z TIME FRAME...VFR
CONDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TO CREATE SCT TO OCCNLY BKN MID LVL CIGS FROM 050-100 AGL THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER LIGHT WINDS AT 10 KTS OR LESS...GOVERNED HEAVILY
BY LAKE BREEZES AND/OR TERRAIN INFLUENCES. COULD SEE A WIDELY SCT
SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED T-STORM DURING THE 18-00Z TIME FRAME ACROSS
THE MTNS WITH BEST CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.
PAUCITY OF EXPECTED COVERAGE WARRANTS OMISSION FROM THE FORECAST
ATTM HOWEVER.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION WEDS PM/NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
IN AND /NEAR STORMS. LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURS MORNING.

00Z FRI - 00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OVER HIR TRRN PSBL.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/RJS










000
FXUS61 KALY 210742
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
342 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
THEREAFTER...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT...PER THE IR CHANNEL IMAGERY...VARIABLE CLOUD
COVER REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
VORT LOBE AS SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS
THE REGION AND SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IN FACT...THE
COMBINATION OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE COULD AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION LATER TODAY. THE H2O VAPOR
LOOP REVEALS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ARE WEAK
IMPULSES THAT COINCIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO TOUCH OFF A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM. EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS SUGGEST THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER DESPITE A CAP SEEN IN THE BUFR PROFILES STARTING
AROUND H650. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE THETA-E ADVECTIVE FIELDS
SO WE WILL RETAIN THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT FORECAST OF 20-30 POPS
FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY INTO EASTERN NY COUNTIES. UNDER A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE...HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID
80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND MAINLY UPPER 70S FOR THE TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME DEPARTS LEAVING BEHIND RISING HEIGHTS. SO
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASING. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY
INTO THE 60S. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD ALLOW FOR SOME HZ/BR TO BE
OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

TUESDAY...A WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION. THERE REMAINS SUBTLE HINTS OF LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG OR SOUTH OF I90 YET THE BUFR PROFILES DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO
CAP CENTERED JUST ABOVE H700. THE GFS HAS LESS EMPHASIS ON THIS
CAP AND HIGHER MOISTURE COLUMN CONTENT WITH THE NAM DRIER IN THE
MID LEVELS AND A MUCH STRONGER CAP. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL WE
EVALUATE...THE QPF FIELDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWFA. SO WE WILL RETAIN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 80S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AND AROUND 80F FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S AS APPARENT
TEMPERATURES /HEAT INDEX/ CLIMB TO AROUND 90F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD CEASE WITHIN AN
HOUR OF SUNSET. A STRENGTHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FURTHER INCREASE
OUR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINT CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S.
COULD SEE MORE AREAS OF HAZE DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 70F FOR MOHAWK...MID HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND LOW-MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA.
WITH WARM TEMPS /VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S/ AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F/ AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EASILY DEVELOP...ESP
IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WE WILL NEED TO THE WATCH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF EXPECTED
INSTABILITY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 40
KTS...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS SOME NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT CROSSES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND IT MAY EVEN STALL AND REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AS WELL. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WED NIGHT/THURS...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR STRONGER
STORMS WILL DIMINISH DUE TO LESS INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE 60S FOR WED NIGHT...AND BE COOLER FOR THURSDAY WITH 70S TO NEAR
80.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS
WILL BE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. IT WON/T BE
TOO OVERLY HUMID EITHER...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE US FROM CANADA. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE OVER OUR
AREA...SOME DIURNALLY FORCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE
FOR SUN AFTN AND EVENING...WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR ALL
TAF SITES. SOME SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST AND THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CALM WINDS.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR FOG CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT BETWEEN NOW
AND SUNRISE FOR KGFL/KPSF DURING ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER...AS T/TD SPREADS ARE QUITE LOW. ELSEWHERE...NO FOG IS
EXPECTED. ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME DIURNAL CU AND SOME
ADDITIONAL PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH A BROAD WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE AREA. A FEW AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP WEST OF THE
REGION...BUT MAY DRIFT CLOSE ENOUGH TO KGFL/KALB TO WARRANT A VCSH
IN THE TAF FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER AND VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE WITH VERY LIGHT S-SW WINDS AT AROUND 5
KTS. ANY SHRA/TSRA THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE
DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE...BUT SOME SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL
FOG TO DEVELOP...ESP AT KGFL/KPSF...FOR LATE IN THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY AND TUESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT.

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO INCREASE AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION THAT WILL BE WELL
ENTRENCHED INTO A HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM THIS EARLY MORNING AND AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

AS HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE IN THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KBTV 210740
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY COULD APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 112 AM EDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE TEMPS ACRS THE
SLV...AS SFC DWPTS ARE IN THE L/M 60S AND WITH CLOUDS...THINKING
LOWS WL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S ACRS THIS REGION.
ALSO...REDUCED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG...DUE TO THE COMBINATION
OF CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED 10 TO 15 KNOT JET AT 500 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL ACRS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...CRNT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 406 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY. A WEAKENING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY TO THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BTV 4KM WRK ALSO SHOWING THIS AS WELL. SPC HAS NORTHERN
NEW YORK IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING DUE
TO THE LOSS OF SURFACE DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS SHOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS START TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HAVE ALSO MENTION SOME MORE PATCHY
VALLEY FOG IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL APPROACH
90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN PROGRESSES SLOWLY
BUT STEADILY SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH STEADIER
SHOWERS/THUNDER EXITING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS CENTRAL/SOUTH ACCORDINGLY...THEN TAPER
OFF THEREAFTER. BEHIND THE FRONT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
SOUTHWARD AS LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION. BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A
SECONDARY SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH
WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY NATURE OF THE PBL WILL CARRY ONLY
SLIGHT CHC POPS AT THIS POINT WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY.
THEREAFTER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND DEEPEN/AMPLIFY OVER TIME AS MID TO UPPER FLOW TRENDS
SOUTHWESTERLY AND GRADUALLY MOISTENS ACROSS NEW YORK/NEW ENGLAND.
THUS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE OFFERED FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WITHIN +/- 5 DEG OF SEASONAL
NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH COOLEST DAY ON THURSDAY
(73-79)...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WARMING BY ABOUT 2 DEG PER DAY
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN BR AT
KMPV/KSLK AND POSSIBLY AT KMSS IN THE 07-12Z TIME FRAME...VFR
CONDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TO CREATE SCT TO OCCNLY BKN MID LVL CIGS FROM 050-100 AGL THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER LIGHT WINDS AT 10 KTS OR LESS...GOVERNED HEAVILY
BY LAKE BREEZES AND/OR TERRAIN INFLUENCES. COULD SEE A WIDELY SCT
SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED T-STORM DURING THE 18-00Z TIME FRAME ACROSS
THE MTNS WITH BEST CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.
PAUCITY OF EXPECTED COVERAGE WARRANTS OMISSION FROM THE FORECAST
ATTM HOWEVER.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION WEDS PM/NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
IN AND /NEAR STORMS. LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURS MORNING.

00Z FRI - 00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OVER HIR TRRN PSBL.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/RJS






000
FXUS61 KBTV 210740
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY COULD APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 112 AM EDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE TEMPS ACRS THE
SLV...AS SFC DWPTS ARE IN THE L/M 60S AND WITH CLOUDS...THINKING
LOWS WL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S ACRS THIS REGION.
ALSO...REDUCED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG...DUE TO THE COMBINATION
OF CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED 10 TO 15 KNOT JET AT 500 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL ACRS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...CRNT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 406 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY. A WEAKENING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY TO THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BTV 4KM WRK ALSO SHOWING THIS AS WELL. SPC HAS NORTHERN
NEW YORK IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING DUE
TO THE LOSS OF SURFACE DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS SHOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS START TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HAVE ALSO MENTION SOME MORE PATCHY
VALLEY FOG IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL APPROACH
90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN PROGRESSES SLOWLY
BUT STEADILY SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH STEADIER
SHOWERS/THUNDER EXITING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS CENTRAL/SOUTH ACCORDINGLY...THEN TAPER
OFF THEREAFTER. BEHIND THE FRONT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
SOUTHWARD AS LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION. BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A
SECONDARY SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH
WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY NATURE OF THE PBL WILL CARRY ONLY
SLIGHT CHC POPS AT THIS POINT WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY.
THEREAFTER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND DEEPEN/AMPLIFY OVER TIME AS MID TO UPPER FLOW TRENDS
SOUTHWESTERLY AND GRADUALLY MOISTENS ACROSS NEW YORK/NEW ENGLAND.
THUS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE OFFERED FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WITHIN +/- 5 DEG OF SEASONAL
NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH COOLEST DAY ON THURSDAY
(73-79)...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WARMING BY ABOUT 2 DEG PER DAY
THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN BR AT
KMPV/KSLK AND POSSIBLY AT KMSS IN THE 07-12Z TIME FRAME...VFR
CONDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TO CREATE SCT TO OCCNLY BKN MID LVL CIGS FROM 050-100 AGL THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER LIGHT WINDS AT 10 KTS OR LESS...GOVERNED HEAVILY
BY LAKE BREEZES AND/OR TERRAIN INFLUENCES. COULD SEE A WIDELY SCT
SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED T-STORM DURING THE 18-00Z TIME FRAME ACROSS
THE MTNS WITH BEST CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.
PAUCITY OF EXPECTED COVERAGE WARRANTS OMISSION FROM THE FORECAST
ATTM HOWEVER.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION WEDS PM/NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
IN AND /NEAR STORMS. LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURS MORNING.

00Z FRI - 00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OVER HIR TRRN PSBL.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/RJS







000
FXUS61 KALY 210523
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
123 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP TRANQUIL WEATHER OVER THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT RETURNS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...PER THE 11U-3.9U IMAGERY...VARIABLE CLOUD COVER
WAS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED CLOUD COVERAGE OVER
THE CAPITAL REGION. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK VORT LOBE AS
SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION AND
SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WE HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO
RAISE CLOUD COVER FOR AREAS MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
WESTWARD. AS A RESULT...RAISED MIN TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO AS WELL.
PATCHY FOG STILL POSSIBLE FOR FAVORED SHELTERED VALLEYS AND
LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES OF WATER...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT HAVE
SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DAMPEN OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR
REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE LOOKS BE A LEE-INDUCED TROUGH
DEVELOPING MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...MAYBE UP TO
1000 J/KG...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS
TO BE A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT CAP IN THE MID LAYERS OF THE COLUMN.

THAT SAID...PWAT VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
(ABOUT 1.5 INCHES). WE INCREASED POPS TO 30 WELL WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SLIGHT TO THE
HUDSON RIVER. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES POP UP SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY "SHALLOW" AND NOT LAST ALL THAT LONG.

OTHERWISE...DRY TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PERSIST WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 80-85 IN THE
VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO INCREASE A LITTLE
INTO THE LOWER 60S...SO IT WILL FEEL A LITTLE MORE UNCOMFORTABLE
OUTSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS LOOKS DRY BUT SOMEWHAT MUGGY. ONCE AGAIN...SOME
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG MIGHT FORM. LOWS WILL BE 60-65 ALBANY
SOUTHWARD IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...55 TO 60 MOST OTHER AREAS.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES A LITTLE SO WILL BOTH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE TO MANY HEADING
OUTDOORS. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...80-85 HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL CREEP UP INTO THE
MID OR UPPER 60S PUSHING APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH COMBINED
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY) TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN MANY PLACES.

WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE OF CAP...THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT BE HARD TO COME BY DESPITE AND MARKED INCREASE IN SURFACE
INSTABILITY...RAMPING UP TO AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG. THERE WILL BE NO
REAL FOCUSING MECHANISMS TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED AND SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE HAD SLIGHT
CHANCES (AT LEAST FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHEASTWARD) WE
CONTINUED THIS IDEA...ONLY EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCES EVERYWHERE BY
AFTERNOON.

ONCE AGAIN...ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES FORM ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED. HOWEVER...THEY COULD BRIEFLY PULSE UP AND PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN...PERHAPS BRIEF GUSTY WIND AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SINCE WE
HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES AND IT IS TWO DAYS OUT...NO ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORM WORDING WILL BE USED ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY WITH ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUITE QUICKLY.

WEDNESDAY STARTS OUT WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND VERY MUGGY CONDITIONS. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BEGIN DESCENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA...AND COULD FIRE UP A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
INSTABILITY COULD REACH UP TO 3000 J/KG AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. RIGHT
NOW...THE WIND FIELDS DO NOT LOOK ROBUST SO NOT CONFIDENT OF ANY
"ORGANIZED" CONVECTION WITH THIS FRONT. IN FACT...THERE IS SOME HINT
THAT A LOT OF THE ACTIVITY COULD BE BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SHOWS
"ANA" CHARACTERISTICS (ONE THAT PARALLELS THE WIND FLOW ALOFT) WHICH
MEANS MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND EVEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD BE
RIGHT ALONG OR EVEN A LITTLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR NOW...INCREASED POPS TO 30 BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...AS HIGH AS 54 PERCENT (STILL CHANCE
THRESHOLD) ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS.

IT BE DOWNRIGHT HOT WITH HIGHS HIGHS AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS...MID
OR UPPER 80S MOST OF OUR ELEVATED TERRAIN...EXCEPT LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND CONVECTION.  HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...JUST FALLING SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY A SHOWERY BEGINNING AND END...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS IN BETWEEN.  A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SLIDING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY.  DRY WEATHER WILL
BE BRIEF TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN IN
RESPONSE TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM THE WEST.
THUS...INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES WILL BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS ON ANY GIVEN
DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN MAINLY THE 70S AND LOWER 80S EACH
DAY...WITH THE COOLEST DAY BEING THURSDAY...WHEN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN
PEAKS MAY FAIL TO CRACK 70 DEGREES.  LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BUT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER.  BY SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW READINGS WILL BE BACK INTO
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.  THIS IS NORMALLY ALBANY/S WARMEST
TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH HIGHS TYPICALLY AROUND 83 DEGREES...AND LOWS
IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR ALL
TAF SITES. SOME SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST AND THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CALM WINDS.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR FOG CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT BETWEEN NOW
AND SUNRISE FOR KGFL/KPSF DURING ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER...AS T/TD SPREADS ARE QUITE LOW. ELSEWHERE...NO FOG IS
EXPECTED. ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME DIURNAL CU AND SOME
ADDITIONAL PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH A BROAD WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE AREA. A FEW AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP WEST OF THE
REGION...BUT MAY DRIFT CLOSE ENOUGH TO KGFL/KALB TO WARRANT A VCSH
IN THE TAF FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER AND VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE WITH VERY LIGHT S-SW WINDS AT AROUND 5
KTS. ANY SHRA/TSRA THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE
DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE...BUT SOME SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL
FOG TO DEVELOP...ESP AT KGFL/KPSF...FOR LATE IN THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOONS.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A NORMAL RECOVERY EACH NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF DEW
FORMATION. RH VALUES LOOK TO BE "AVERAGE" EACH OF THE NEXT TWO
AFTERNOON (GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 50 PERCENT).

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO INCREASE AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS PLOWING INTO AN INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID AIR
MASS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL UNTIL WEDNESDAY...RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KBTV 210522
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
122 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY COULD APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 112 AM EDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE TEMPS ACRS THE
SLV...AS SFC DWPTS ARE IN THE L/M 60S AND WITH CLOUDS...THINKING
LOWS WL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S ACRS THIS REGION.
ALSO...REDUCED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG...DUE TO THE COMBINATION
OF CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED 10 TO 15 KNOT JET AT 500 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL ACRS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...CRNT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 406 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY. A WEAKENING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY TO THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BTV 4KM WRK ALSO SHOWING THIS AS WELL. SPC HAS NORTHERN
NEW YORK IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING DUE
TO THE LOSS OF SURFACE DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS SHOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS START TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HAVE ALSO MENTION SOME MORE PATCHY
VALLEY FOG IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL APPROACH
90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING WITH GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY LEADING
TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.

ACTIVE WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A WARM HUMID AIR MASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT AND POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS INTO THE AREA DURING THE
MID-DAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS...INTERACTING WITH AMPLE SURFACE
INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO DEVELOPMENT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ANALYSIS
OF SEVERE PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS WIND BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH SOME ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE...BUT
WITH PROGGED PWATS AROUND 150-175% ABOVE NORMAL CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND URBAN STREET FLOODING. 3 DAYS
OUT THERE`S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
ABOVE FEATURES...BUT HAVE LEANED ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS WHERE THE GFS HAS STRUGGLED A LITTLE MORE.
HAVE INDICATED A 6-HOUR WINDOW OF CONVECTION LIKELY AT ANY ONE
LOCATION IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW...BUT IN REALITY IT WILL
LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 1-3 HOURS. WE`LL DIAL IT IN OVER THE NEXT 2
DAYS SO STAY TUNED.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...LEANING MORE ON THE FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND LIFT IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE GREENS IN THE
MORNING. CONDITIONS TREND DRIER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE NOSE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
WHILE ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. THE RESULT WILL BE GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH PARTLY CLOUDY/SUNNY EACH DAY WITH AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM POSSIBLE. TEMPS RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60.

ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MID-WEST AND GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN BR AT
KMPV/KSLK AND POSSIBLY AT KMSS IN THE 07-12Z TIME FRAME...VFR
CONDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TO CREATE SCT TO OCCNLY BKN MID LVL CIGS FROM 050-100 AGL THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER LIGHT WINDS AT 10 KTS OR LESS...GOVERNED HEAVILY
BY LAKE BREEZES AND/OR TERRAIN INFLUENCES. COULD SEE A WIDELY SCT
SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED T-STORM DURING THE 18-00Z TIME FRAME ACROSS
THE MTNS WITH BEST CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.
PAUCITY OF EXPECTED COVERAGE WARRANTS OMISSION FROM THE FORECAST
ATTM HOWEVER.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION WEDS PM/NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
IN AND /NEAR STORMS. LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURS MORNING.

00Z FRI - 00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OVER HIR TRRN PSBL.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...JMG/RJS






000
FXUS61 KBTV 210522
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
122 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY COULD APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 112 AM EDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE TEMPS ACRS THE
SLV...AS SFC DWPTS ARE IN THE L/M 60S AND WITH CLOUDS...THINKING
LOWS WL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S ACRS THIS REGION.
ALSO...REDUCED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG...DUE TO THE COMBINATION
OF CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED 10 TO 15 KNOT JET AT 500 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL ACRS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...CRNT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 406 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY. A WEAKENING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY TO THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BTV 4KM WRK ALSO SHOWING THIS AS WELL. SPC HAS NORTHERN
NEW YORK IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING DUE
TO THE LOSS OF SURFACE DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS SHOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS START TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HAVE ALSO MENTION SOME MORE PATCHY
VALLEY FOG IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL APPROACH
90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING WITH GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY LEADING
TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.

ACTIVE WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A WARM HUMID AIR MASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT AND POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS INTO THE AREA DURING THE
MID-DAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS...INTERACTING WITH AMPLE SURFACE
INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO DEVELOPMENT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ANALYSIS
OF SEVERE PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS WIND BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH SOME ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE...BUT
WITH PROGGED PWATS AROUND 150-175% ABOVE NORMAL CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND URBAN STREET FLOODING. 3 DAYS
OUT THERE`S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
ABOVE FEATURES...BUT HAVE LEANED ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS WHERE THE GFS HAS STRUGGLED A LITTLE MORE.
HAVE INDICATED A 6-HOUR WINDOW OF CONVECTION LIKELY AT ANY ONE
LOCATION IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW...BUT IN REALITY IT WILL
LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 1-3 HOURS. WE`LL DIAL IT IN OVER THE NEXT 2
DAYS SO STAY TUNED.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...LEANING MORE ON THE FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND LIFT IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE GREENS IN THE
MORNING. CONDITIONS TREND DRIER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE NOSE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
WHILE ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. THE RESULT WILL BE GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH PARTLY CLOUDY/SUNNY EACH DAY WITH AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM POSSIBLE. TEMPS RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60.

ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MID-WEST AND GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN BR AT
KMPV/KSLK AND POSSIBLY AT KMSS IN THE 07-12Z TIME FRAME...VFR
CONDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TO CREATE SCT TO OCCNLY BKN MID LVL CIGS FROM 050-100 AGL THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER LIGHT WINDS AT 10 KTS OR LESS...GOVERNED HEAVILY
BY LAKE BREEZES AND/OR TERRAIN INFLUENCES. COULD SEE A WIDELY SCT
SHOWER OR AN ISOLATED T-STORM DURING THE 18-00Z TIME FRAME ACROSS
THE MTNS WITH BEST CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.
PAUCITY OF EXPECTED COVERAGE WARRANTS OMISSION FROM THE FORECAST
ATTM HOWEVER.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION WEDS PM/NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
IN AND /NEAR STORMS. LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURS MORNING.

00Z FRI - 00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OVER HIR TRRN PSBL.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...JMG/RJS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 210514
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
114 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY COULD APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 112 AM EDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE TEMPS ACRS THE
SLV...AS SFC DWPTS ARE IN THE L/M 60S AND WITH CLOUDS...THINKING
LOWS WL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S ACRS THIS REGION.
ALSO...REDUCED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG...DUE TO THE COMBINATION
OF CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED 10 TO 15 KNOT JET AT 500 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL ACRS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...CRNT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 406 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY. A WEAKENING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY TO THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BTV 4KM WRK ALSO SHOWING THIS AS WELL. SPC HAS NORTHERN
NEW YORK IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING DUE
TO THE LOSS OF SURFACE DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS SHOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS START TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HAVE ALSO MENTION SOME MORE PATCHY
VALLEY FOG IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL APPROACH
90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING WITH GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY LEADING
TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.

ACTIVE WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A WARM HUMID AIR MASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT AND POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS INTO THE AREA DURING THE
MID-DAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS...INTERACTING WITH AMPLE SURFACE
INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO DEVELOPMENT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ANALYSIS
OF SEVERE PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS WIND BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH SOME ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE...BUT
WITH PROGGED PWATS AROUND 150-175% ABOVE NORMAL CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND URBAN STREET FLOODING. 3 DAYS
OUT THERE`S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
ABOVE FEATURES...BUT HAVE LEANED ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS WHERE THE GFS HAS STRUGGLED A LITTLE MORE.
HAVE INDICATED A 6-HOUR WINDOW OF CONVECTION LIKELY AT ANY ONE
LOCATION IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW...BUT IN REALITY IT WILL
LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 1-3 HOURS. WE`LL DIAL IT IN OVER THE NEXT 2
DAYS SO STAY TUNED.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...LEANING MORE ON THE FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND LIFT IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE GREENS IN THE
MORNING. CONDITIONS TREND DRIER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE NOSE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
WHILE ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. THE RESULT WILL BE GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH PARTLY CLOUDY/SUNNY EACH DAY WITH AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM POSSIBLE. TEMPS RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60.

ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MID-WEST AND GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CUMULUS WILL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND MAY AFFECT KMSS THROUGH 02Z.
TRICKY FORECAST FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT KMPV AND KSLK
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN QUESTION...BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND RISING DEWPOINTS FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION IFR FROM
08-12Z. ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE. AFTER 12Z MONDAY...DIURNAL CUMULUS
WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A SHOWER POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHC AT KSLK. WINDS SSW 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION WEDS PM/NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
IN AND /NEAR STORMS. LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURS MORNING.

00Z FRI - 00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OVER HIR TRRN PSBL.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...RJS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 210514
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
114 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY COULD APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 112 AM EDT MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE TEMPS ACRS THE
SLV...AS SFC DWPTS ARE IN THE L/M 60S AND WITH CLOUDS...THINKING
LOWS WL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S ACRS THIS REGION.
ALSO...REDUCED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG...DUE TO THE COMBINATION
OF CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED 10 TO 15 KNOT JET AT 500 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL ACRS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...CRNT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 406 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY. A WEAKENING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY TO THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BTV 4KM WRK ALSO SHOWING THIS AS WELL. SPC HAS NORTHERN
NEW YORK IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING DUE
TO THE LOSS OF SURFACE DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS SHOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS START TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HAVE ALSO MENTION SOME MORE PATCHY
VALLEY FOG IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL APPROACH
90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING WITH GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY LEADING
TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.

ACTIVE WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A WARM HUMID AIR MASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT AND POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS INTO THE AREA DURING THE
MID-DAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS...INTERACTING WITH AMPLE SURFACE
INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO DEVELOPMENT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ANALYSIS
OF SEVERE PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS WIND BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH SOME ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE...BUT
WITH PROGGED PWATS AROUND 150-175% ABOVE NORMAL CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND URBAN STREET FLOODING. 3 DAYS
OUT THERE`S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
ABOVE FEATURES...BUT HAVE LEANED ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS WHERE THE GFS HAS STRUGGLED A LITTLE MORE.
HAVE INDICATED A 6-HOUR WINDOW OF CONVECTION LIKELY AT ANY ONE
LOCATION IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW...BUT IN REALITY IT WILL
LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 1-3 HOURS. WE`LL DIAL IT IN OVER THE NEXT 2
DAYS SO STAY TUNED.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...LEANING MORE ON THE FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND LIFT IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE GREENS IN THE
MORNING. CONDITIONS TREND DRIER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE NOSE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
WHILE ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. THE RESULT WILL BE GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH PARTLY CLOUDY/SUNNY EACH DAY WITH AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM POSSIBLE. TEMPS RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60.

ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MID-WEST AND GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CUMULUS WILL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND MAY AFFECT KMSS THROUGH 02Z.
TRICKY FORECAST FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT KMPV AND KSLK
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN QUESTION...BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND RISING DEWPOINTS FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION IFR FROM
08-12Z. ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE. AFTER 12Z MONDAY...DIURNAL CUMULUS
WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A SHOWER POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHC AT KSLK. WINDS SSW 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION WEDS PM/NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
IN AND /NEAR STORMS. LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURS MORNING.

00Z FRI - 00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OVER HIR TRRN PSBL.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...RJS









000
FXUS61 KALY 210509
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP TRANQUIL WEATHER OVER THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT RETURNS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...PER THE 11U-3.9U IMAGERY...VARIABLE CLOUD COVER
WAS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED CLOUD COVERAGE OVER
THE CAPITAL REGION. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK VORT LOBE AS
SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION AND
SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WE HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO
RAISE CLOUD COVER FOR AREAS MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
WESTWARD. AS A RESULT...RAISED MIN TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO AS WELL.
PATCHY FOG STILL POSSIBLE FOR FAVORED SHELTERED VALLEYS AND
LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES OF WATER...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT HAVE
SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DAMPEN OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR
REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE LOOKS BE A LEE-INDUCED TROUGH
DEVELOPING MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...MAYBE UP TO
1000 J/KG...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS
TO BE A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT CAP IN THE MID LAYERS OF THE COLUMN.

THAT SAID...PWAT VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
(ABOUT 1.5 INCHES). WE INCREASED POPS TO 30 WELL WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SLIGHT TO THE
HUDSON RIVER. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES POP UP SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY "SHALLOW" AND NOT LAST ALL THAT LONG.

OTHERWISE...DRY TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PERSIST WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 80-85 IN THE
VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO INCREASE A LITTLE
INTO THE LOWER 60S...SO IT WILL FEEL A LITTLE MORE UNCOMFORTABLE
OUTSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS LOOKS DRY BUT SOMEWHAT MUGGY. ONCE AGAIN...SOME
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG MIGHT FORM. LOWS WILL BE 60-65 ALBANY
SOUTHWARD IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...55 TO 60 MOST OTHER AREAS.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES A LITTLE SO WILL BOTH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE TO MANY HEADING
OUTDOORS. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...80-85 HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL CREEP UP INTO THE
MID OR UPPER 60S PUSHING APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH COMBINED
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY) TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN MANY PLACES.

WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE OF CAP...THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT BE HARD TO COME BY DESPITE AND MARKED INCREASE IN SURFACE
INSTABILITY...RAMPING UP TO AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG. THERE WILL BE NO
REAL FOCUSING MECHANISMS TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED AND SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE HAD SLIGHT
CHANCES (AT LEAST FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHEASTWARD) WE
CONTINUED THIS IDEA...ONLY EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCES EVERYWHERE BY
AFTERNOON.

ONCE AGAIN...ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES FORM ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED. HOWEVER...THEY COULD BRIEFLY PULSE UP AND PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN...PERHAPS BRIEF GUSTY WIND AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SINCE WE
HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES AND IT IS TWO DAYS OUT...NO ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORM WORDING WILL BE USED ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY WITH ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUITE QUICKLY.

WEDNESDAY STARTS OUT WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND VERY MUGGY CONDITIONS. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BEGIN DESCENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA...AND COULD FIRE UP A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
INSTABILITY COULD REACH UP TO 3000 J/KG AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. RIGHT
NOW...THE WIND FIELDS DO NOT LOOK ROBUST SO NOT CONFIDENT OF ANY
"ORGANIZED" CONVECTION WITH THIS FRONT. IN FACT...THERE IS SOME HINT
THAT A LOT OF THE ACTIVITY COULD BE BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SHOWS
"ANA" CHARACTERISTICS (ONE THAT PARALLELS THE WIND FLOW ALOFT) WHICH
MEANS MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND EVEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD BE
RIGHT ALONG OR EVEN A LITTLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR NOW...INCREASED POPS TO 30 BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...AS HIGH AS 54 PERCENT (STILL CHANCE
THRESHOLD) ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS.

IT BE DOWNRIGHT HOT WITH HIGHS HIGHS AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS...MID
OR UPPER 80S MOST OF OUR ELEVATED TERRAIN...EXCEPT LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND CONVECTION.  HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...JUST FALLING SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY A SHOWERY BEGINNING AND END...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS IN BETWEEN.  A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SLIDING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY.  DRY WEATHER WILL
BE BRIEF TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN IN
RESPONSE TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM THE WEST.
THUS...INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES WILL BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS ON ANY GIVEN
DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN MAINLY THE 70S AND LOWER 80S EACH
DAY...WITH THE COOLEST DAY BEING THURSDAY...WHEN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN
PEAKS MAY FAIL TO CRACK 70 DEGREES.  LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BUT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER.  BY SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW READINGS WILL BE BACK INTO
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.  THIS IS NORMALLY ALBANY/S WARMEST
TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH HIGHS TYPICALLY AROUND 83 DEGREES...AND LOWS
IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO
SOME RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION IN FAVORED SITES SUCH AS KGFL/KPSF
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...SO WILL
MENTION MVFR WITH TEMPOS FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
WILL NOT MENTION ANY RESTRICTIONS FOR KALB/KPOU. ANY FOG SHOULD
BURN OFF BY 11Z-12Z MONDAY...WITH SCT TOWERING CU DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED TSRA
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE SO WILL NOT EXPLICITLY MENTION IN TAFS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
AROUND 5-6 KT ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOONS.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A NORMAL RECOVERY EACH NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF DEW
FORMATION. RH VALUES LOOK TO BE "AVERAGE" EACH OF THE NEXT TWO
AFTERNOON (GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 50 PERCENT).

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO INCREASE AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS PLOWING INTO AN INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID AIR
MASS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL UNTIL WEDNESDAY...RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KALY 210509
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP TRANQUIL WEATHER OVER THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT RETURNS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...PER THE 11U-3.9U IMAGERY...VARIABLE CLOUD COVER
WAS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED CLOUD COVERAGE OVER
THE CAPITAL REGION. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK VORT LOBE AS
SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION AND
SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WE HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO
RAISE CLOUD COVER FOR AREAS MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
WESTWARD. AS A RESULT...RAISED MIN TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO AS WELL.
PATCHY FOG STILL POSSIBLE FOR FAVORED SHELTERED VALLEYS AND
LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES OF WATER...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT HAVE
SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DAMPEN OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR
REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE LOOKS BE A LEE-INDUCED TROUGH
DEVELOPING MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...MAYBE UP TO
1000 J/KG...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS
TO BE A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT CAP IN THE MID LAYERS OF THE COLUMN.

THAT SAID...PWAT VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
(ABOUT 1.5 INCHES). WE INCREASED POPS TO 30 WELL WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SLIGHT TO THE
HUDSON RIVER. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES POP UP SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY "SHALLOW" AND NOT LAST ALL THAT LONG.

OTHERWISE...DRY TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PERSIST WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 80-85 IN THE
VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO INCREASE A LITTLE
INTO THE LOWER 60S...SO IT WILL FEEL A LITTLE MORE UNCOMFORTABLE
OUTSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS LOOKS DRY BUT SOMEWHAT MUGGY. ONCE AGAIN...SOME
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG MIGHT FORM. LOWS WILL BE 60-65 ALBANY
SOUTHWARD IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...55 TO 60 MOST OTHER AREAS.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES A LITTLE SO WILL BOTH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE TO MANY HEADING
OUTDOORS. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...80-85 HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL CREEP UP INTO THE
MID OR UPPER 60S PUSHING APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH COMBINED
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY) TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN MANY PLACES.

WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE OF CAP...THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT BE HARD TO COME BY DESPITE AND MARKED INCREASE IN SURFACE
INSTABILITY...RAMPING UP TO AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG. THERE WILL BE NO
REAL FOCUSING MECHANISMS TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED AND SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE HAD SLIGHT
CHANCES (AT LEAST FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHEASTWARD) WE
CONTINUED THIS IDEA...ONLY EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCES EVERYWHERE BY
AFTERNOON.

ONCE AGAIN...ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES FORM ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED. HOWEVER...THEY COULD BRIEFLY PULSE UP AND PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN...PERHAPS BRIEF GUSTY WIND AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SINCE WE
HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES AND IT IS TWO DAYS OUT...NO ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORM WORDING WILL BE USED ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY WITH ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUITE QUICKLY.

WEDNESDAY STARTS OUT WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND VERY MUGGY CONDITIONS. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BEGIN DESCENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA...AND COULD FIRE UP A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
INSTABILITY COULD REACH UP TO 3000 J/KG AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. RIGHT
NOW...THE WIND FIELDS DO NOT LOOK ROBUST SO NOT CONFIDENT OF ANY
"ORGANIZED" CONVECTION WITH THIS FRONT. IN FACT...THERE IS SOME HINT
THAT A LOT OF THE ACTIVITY COULD BE BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SHOWS
"ANA" CHARACTERISTICS (ONE THAT PARALLELS THE WIND FLOW ALOFT) WHICH
MEANS MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND EVEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD BE
RIGHT ALONG OR EVEN A LITTLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR NOW...INCREASED POPS TO 30 BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...AS HIGH AS 54 PERCENT (STILL CHANCE
THRESHOLD) ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS.

IT BE DOWNRIGHT HOT WITH HIGHS HIGHS AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS...MID
OR UPPER 80S MOST OF OUR ELEVATED TERRAIN...EXCEPT LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND CONVECTION.  HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...JUST FALLING SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY A SHOWERY BEGINNING AND END...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS IN BETWEEN.  A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SLIDING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY.  DRY WEATHER WILL
BE BRIEF TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN IN
RESPONSE TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM THE WEST.
THUS...INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES WILL BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS ON ANY GIVEN
DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN MAINLY THE 70S AND LOWER 80S EACH
DAY...WITH THE COOLEST DAY BEING THURSDAY...WHEN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN
PEAKS MAY FAIL TO CRACK 70 DEGREES.  LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BUT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER.  BY SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW READINGS WILL BE BACK INTO
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.  THIS IS NORMALLY ALBANY/S WARMEST
TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH HIGHS TYPICALLY AROUND 83 DEGREES...AND LOWS
IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO
SOME RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION IN FAVORED SITES SUCH AS KGFL/KPSF
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...SO WILL
MENTION MVFR WITH TEMPOS FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
WILL NOT MENTION ANY RESTRICTIONS FOR KALB/KPOU. ANY FOG SHOULD
BURN OFF BY 11Z-12Z MONDAY...WITH SCT TOWERING CU DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED TSRA
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE SO WILL NOT EXPLICITLY MENTION IN TAFS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
AROUND 5-6 KT ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOONS.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A NORMAL RECOVERY EACH NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF DEW
FORMATION. RH VALUES LOOK TO BE "AVERAGE" EACH OF THE NEXT TWO
AFTERNOON (GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 50 PERCENT).

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO INCREASE AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS PLOWING INTO AN INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID AIR
MASS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL UNTIL WEDNESDAY...RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





000
FXUS61 KALY 210241
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1041 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP TRANQUIL WEATHER OVER THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT RETURNS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1041 PM EDT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
TONIGHT. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SLOWLY INCREASING FROM CENTRAL NY. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO RAISE
CLOUD COVER FOR AREAS MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION WESTWARD. AS
A RESULT...RAISED MIN TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO AS WELL. PATCHY FOG
STILL POSSIBLE FOR FAVORED SHELTERED VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR
BODIES OF WATER...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT HAVE SIGNIFICANT
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DAMPEN OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR
REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE LOOKS BE A LEE-INDUCED TROUGH
DEVELOPING MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...MAYBE UP TO
1000 J/KG...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS
TO BE A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT CAP IN THE MID LAYERS OF THE COLUMN.

THAT SAID...PWAT VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
(ABOUT 1.5 INCHES). WE INCREASED POPS TO 30 WELL WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SLIGHT TO THE
HUDSON RIVER. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES POP UP SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY "SHALLOW" AND NOT LAST ALL THAT LONG.

OTHERWISE...DRY TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PERSIST WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 80-85 IN THE
VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO INCREASE A LITTLE
INTO THE LOWER 60S...SO IT WILL FEEL A LITTLE MORE UNCOMFORTABLE
OUTSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS LOOKS DRY BUT SOMEWHAT MUGGY. ONCE AGAIN...SOME
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG MIGHT FORM. LOWS WILL BE 60-65 ALBANY
SOUTHWARD IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...55 TO 60 MOST OTHER AREAS.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES A LITTLE SO WILL BOTH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE TO MANY HEADING
OUTDOORS. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...80-85 HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL CREEP UP INTO THE
MID OR UPPER 60S PUSHING APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH COMBINED
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY) TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN MANY PLACES.

WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE OF CAP...THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT BE HARD TO COME BY DESPITE AND MARKED INCREASE IN SURFACE
INSTABILITY...RAMPING UP TO AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG. THERE WILL BE NO
REAL FOCUSING MECHANISMS TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED AND SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE HAD SLIGHT
CHANCES (AT LEAST FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHEASTWARD) WE
CONTINUED THIS IDEA...ONLY EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCES EVERYWHERE BY
AFTERNOON.

ONCE AGAIN...ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES FORM ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED. HOWEVER...THEY COULD BRIEFLY PULSE UP AND PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN...PERHAPS BRIEF GUSTY WIND AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SINCE WE
HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES AND IT IS TWO DAYS OUT...NO ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORM WORDING WILL BE USED ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY WITH ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUITE QUICKLY.

WEDNESDAY STARTS OUT WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND VERY MUGGY CONDITIONS. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BEGIN DESCENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA...AND COULD FIRE UP A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
INSTABILITY COULD REACH UP TO 3000 J/KG AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. RIGHT
NOW...THE WIND FIELDS DO NOT LOOK ROBUST SO NOT CONFIDENT OF ANY
"ORGANIZED" CONVECTION WITH THIS FRONT. IN FACT...THERE IS SOME HINT
THAT A LOT OF THE ACTIVITY COULD BE BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SHOWS
"ANA" CHARACTERISTICS (ONE THAT PARALLELS THE WIND FLOW ALOFT) WHICH
MEANS MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND EVEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD BE
RIGHT ALONG OR EVEN A LITTLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR NOW...INCREASED POPS TO 30 BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...AS HIGH AS 54 PERCENT (STILL CHANCE
THRESHOLD) ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS.

IT BE DOWNRIGHT HOT WITH HIGHS HIGHS AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS...MID
OR UPPER 80S MOST OF OUR ELEVATED TERRAIN...EXCEPT LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND CONVECTION.  HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...JUST FALLING SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY A SHOWERY BEGINNING AND END...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS IN BETWEEN.  A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SLIDING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY.  DRY WEATHER WILL
BE BRIEF TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN IN
RESPONSE TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM THE WEST.
THUS...INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES WILL BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS ON ANY GIVEN
DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN MAINLY THE 70S AND LOWER 80S EACH
DAY...WITH THE COOLEST DAY BEING THURSDAY...WHEN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN
PEAKS MAY FAIL TO CRACK 70 DEGREES.  LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BUT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER.  BY SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW READINGS WILL BE BACK INTO
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.  THIS IS NORMALLY ALBANY/S WARMEST
TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH HIGHS TYPICALLY AROUND 83 DEGREES...AND LOWS
IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO
SOME RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION IN FAVORED SITES SUCH AS KGFL/KPSF
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...SO WILL
MENTION MVFR WITH TEMPOS FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
WILL NOT MENTION ANY RESTRICTIONS FOR KALB/KPOU. ANY FOG SHOULD
BURN OFF BY 11Z-12Z MONDAY...WITH SCT TOWERING CU DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED TSRA
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE SO WILL NOT EXPLICITLY MENTION IN TAFS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
AROUND 5-6 KT ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOONS.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A NORMAL RECOVERY EACH NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF DEW
FORMATION. RH VALUES LOOK TO BE "AVERAGE" EACH OF THE NEXT TWO
AFTERNOON (GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 50 PERCENT).

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO INCREASE AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS PLOWING INTO AN INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID AIR
MASS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL UNTIL WEDNESDAY...RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KALY 210241
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1041 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP TRANQUIL WEATHER OVER THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT RETURNS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1041 PM EDT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
TONIGHT. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SLOWLY INCREASING FROM CENTRAL NY. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO RAISE
CLOUD COVER FOR AREAS MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION WESTWARD. AS
A RESULT...RAISED MIN TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO AS WELL. PATCHY FOG
STILL POSSIBLE FOR FAVORED SHELTERED VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR
BODIES OF WATER...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT HAVE SIGNIFICANT
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DAMPEN OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR
REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE LOOKS BE A LEE-INDUCED TROUGH
DEVELOPING MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...MAYBE UP TO
1000 J/KG...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS
TO BE A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT CAP IN THE MID LAYERS OF THE COLUMN.

THAT SAID...PWAT VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
(ABOUT 1.5 INCHES). WE INCREASED POPS TO 30 WELL WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SLIGHT TO THE
HUDSON RIVER. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES POP UP SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY "SHALLOW" AND NOT LAST ALL THAT LONG.

OTHERWISE...DRY TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PERSIST WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 80-85 IN THE
VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO INCREASE A LITTLE
INTO THE LOWER 60S...SO IT WILL FEEL A LITTLE MORE UNCOMFORTABLE
OUTSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS LOOKS DRY BUT SOMEWHAT MUGGY. ONCE AGAIN...SOME
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG MIGHT FORM. LOWS WILL BE 60-65 ALBANY
SOUTHWARD IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...55 TO 60 MOST OTHER AREAS.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES A LITTLE SO WILL BOTH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE TO MANY HEADING
OUTDOORS. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...80-85 HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL CREEP UP INTO THE
MID OR UPPER 60S PUSHING APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH COMBINED
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY) TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN MANY PLACES.

WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE OF CAP...THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT BE HARD TO COME BY DESPITE AND MARKED INCREASE IN SURFACE
INSTABILITY...RAMPING UP TO AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG. THERE WILL BE NO
REAL FOCUSING MECHANISMS TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED AND SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE HAD SLIGHT
CHANCES (AT LEAST FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHEASTWARD) WE
CONTINUED THIS IDEA...ONLY EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCES EVERYWHERE BY
AFTERNOON.

ONCE AGAIN...ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES FORM ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED. HOWEVER...THEY COULD BRIEFLY PULSE UP AND PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN...PERHAPS BRIEF GUSTY WIND AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SINCE WE
HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES AND IT IS TWO DAYS OUT...NO ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORM WORDING WILL BE USED ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY WITH ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUITE QUICKLY.

WEDNESDAY STARTS OUT WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND VERY MUGGY CONDITIONS. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BEGIN DESCENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA...AND COULD FIRE UP A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
INSTABILITY COULD REACH UP TO 3000 J/KG AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. RIGHT
NOW...THE WIND FIELDS DO NOT LOOK ROBUST SO NOT CONFIDENT OF ANY
"ORGANIZED" CONVECTION WITH THIS FRONT. IN FACT...THERE IS SOME HINT
THAT A LOT OF THE ACTIVITY COULD BE BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SHOWS
"ANA" CHARACTERISTICS (ONE THAT PARALLELS THE WIND FLOW ALOFT) WHICH
MEANS MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND EVEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD BE
RIGHT ALONG OR EVEN A LITTLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR NOW...INCREASED POPS TO 30 BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...AS HIGH AS 54 PERCENT (STILL CHANCE
THRESHOLD) ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS.

IT BE DOWNRIGHT HOT WITH HIGHS HIGHS AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS...MID
OR UPPER 80S MOST OF OUR ELEVATED TERRAIN...EXCEPT LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND CONVECTION.  HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...JUST FALLING SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY A SHOWERY BEGINNING AND END...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS IN BETWEEN.  A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SLIDING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY.  DRY WEATHER WILL
BE BRIEF TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN IN
RESPONSE TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM THE WEST.
THUS...INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES WILL BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS ON ANY GIVEN
DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN MAINLY THE 70S AND LOWER 80S EACH
DAY...WITH THE COOLEST DAY BEING THURSDAY...WHEN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN
PEAKS MAY FAIL TO CRACK 70 DEGREES.  LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BUT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER.  BY SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW READINGS WILL BE BACK INTO
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.  THIS IS NORMALLY ALBANY/S WARMEST
TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH HIGHS TYPICALLY AROUND 83 DEGREES...AND LOWS
IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO
SOME RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION IN FAVORED SITES SUCH AS KGFL/KPSF
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...SO WILL
MENTION MVFR WITH TEMPOS FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
WILL NOT MENTION ANY RESTRICTIONS FOR KALB/KPOU. ANY FOG SHOULD
BURN OFF BY 11Z-12Z MONDAY...WITH SCT TOWERING CU DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED TSRA
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE SO WILL NOT EXPLICITLY MENTION IN TAFS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
AROUND 5-6 KT ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOONS.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A NORMAL RECOVERY EACH NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF DEW
FORMATION. RH VALUES LOOK TO BE "AVERAGE" EACH OF THE NEXT TWO
AFTERNOON (GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 50 PERCENT).

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO INCREASE AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS PLOWING INTO AN INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID AIR
MASS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL UNTIL WEDNESDAY...RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 210217
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1017 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY COULD APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1017 PM EDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. MOST OF THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME MID LVL CLOUDS. EXPECT DRY NIGHT WITH LGT TO
CALM WINDS RESULTING IN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. MID LVL CLOUDS
WILL DECREASE IN COVER...BUT MAY NOT FULLY ABATE AS WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LVL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

EXPECT MONDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE M50S-L60S IN
THE VALLEYS AND L-M50S IN PORTIONS OF THE NEK AND HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 406 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY. A WEAKENING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY TO THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BTV 4KM WRK ALSO SHOWING THIS AS WELL. SPC HAS NORTHERN
NEW YORK IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING DUE
TO THE LOSS OF SURFACE DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS SHOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS START TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HAVE ALSO MENTION SOME MORE PATCHY
VALLEY FOG IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL APPROACH
90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING WITH GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY LEADING
TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.

ACTIVE WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A WARM HUMID AIR MASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT AND POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS INTO THE AREA DURING THE
MID-DAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS...INTERACTING WITH AMPLE SURFACE
INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO DEVELOPMENT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ANALYSIS
OF SEVERE PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS WIND BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH SOME ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE...BUT
WITH PROGGED PWATS AROUND 150-175% ABOVE NORMAL CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND URBAN STREET FLOODING. 3 DAYS
OUT THERE`S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
ABOVE FEATURES...BUT HAVE LEANED ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS WHERE THE GFS HAS STRUGGLED A LITTLE MORE.
HAVE INDICATED A 6-HOUR WINDOW OF CONVECTION LIKELY AT ANY ONE
LOCATION IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW...BUT IN REALITY IT WILL
LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 1-3 HOURS. WE`LL DIAL IT IN OVER THE NEXT 2
DAYS SO STAY TUNED.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...LEANING MORE ON THE FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND LIFT IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE GREENS IN THE
MORNING. CONDITIONS TREND DRIER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE NOSE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
WHILE ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. THE RESULT WILL BE GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH PARTLY CLOUDY/SUNNY EACH DAY WITH AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM POSSIBLE. TEMPS RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60.

ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MID-WEST AND GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CUMULUS WILL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND MAY AFFECT KMSS THROUGH 02Z.
TRICKY FORECAST FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT KMPV AND KSLK
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN QUESTION...BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND RISING DEWPOINTS FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION IFR FROM
08-12Z. ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE. AFTER 12Z MONDAY...DIURNAL CUMULUS
WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A SHOWER POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHC AT KSLK. WINDS SSW 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION WEDS PM/NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
IN AND /NEAR STORMS. LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURS MORNING.

00Z FRI - 00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OVER HIR TRRN PSBL.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...RJS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 210217
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1017 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY COULD APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1017 PM EDT SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. MOST OF THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME MID LVL CLOUDS. EXPECT DRY NIGHT WITH LGT TO
CALM WINDS RESULTING IN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. MID LVL CLOUDS
WILL DECREASE IN COVER...BUT MAY NOT FULLY ABATE AS WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LVL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

EXPECT MONDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE M50S-L60S IN
THE VALLEYS AND L-M50S IN PORTIONS OF THE NEK AND HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 406 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY. A WEAKENING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY TO THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BTV 4KM WRK ALSO SHOWING THIS AS WELL. SPC HAS NORTHERN
NEW YORK IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING DUE
TO THE LOSS OF SURFACE DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS SHOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS START TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HAVE ALSO MENTION SOME MORE PATCHY
VALLEY FOG IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL APPROACH
90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING WITH GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY LEADING
TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.

ACTIVE WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A WARM HUMID AIR MASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT AND POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS INTO THE AREA DURING THE
MID-DAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS...INTERACTING WITH AMPLE SURFACE
INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO DEVELOPMENT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ANALYSIS
OF SEVERE PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS WIND BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH SOME ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE...BUT
WITH PROGGED PWATS AROUND 150-175% ABOVE NORMAL CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND URBAN STREET FLOODING. 3 DAYS
OUT THERE`S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
ABOVE FEATURES...BUT HAVE LEANED ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS WHERE THE GFS HAS STRUGGLED A LITTLE MORE.
HAVE INDICATED A 6-HOUR WINDOW OF CONVECTION LIKELY AT ANY ONE
LOCATION IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW...BUT IN REALITY IT WILL
LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 1-3 HOURS. WE`LL DIAL IT IN OVER THE NEXT 2
DAYS SO STAY TUNED.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...LEANING MORE ON THE FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND LIFT IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE GREENS IN THE
MORNING. CONDITIONS TREND DRIER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE NOSE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
WHILE ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. THE RESULT WILL BE GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH PARTLY CLOUDY/SUNNY EACH DAY WITH AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM POSSIBLE. TEMPS RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60.

ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MID-WEST AND GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CUMULUS WILL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND MAY AFFECT KMSS THROUGH 02Z.
TRICKY FORECAST FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT KMPV AND KSLK
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN QUESTION...BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND RISING DEWPOINTS FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION IFR FROM
08-12Z. ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE. AFTER 12Z MONDAY...DIURNAL CUMULUS
WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A SHOWER POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHC AT KSLK. WINDS SSW 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION WEDS PM/NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
IN AND /NEAR STORMS. LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURS MORNING.

00Z FRI - 00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OVER HIR TRRN PSBL.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...RJS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 202340
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
740 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY COULD APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 726 PM EDT SUNDAY...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NRN ADKS CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BUT WILL
DIMINISH IN THE WANING DIURNAL HEATING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO END
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ALSO
DIMINISHING...BUT SOME LOW AND MID LVL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LVL WEAK WAVE WILL PERSIST OVER NRN NY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR THE AREA LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH LGT TO CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE EARLY THROUGH MID MORNING HOURS.

EXPECT MONDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE M50S-L60S IN
THE VALLEYS AND L-M50S IN PORTIONS OF THE NEK AND HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 406 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY. A WEAKENING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY TO THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BTV 4KM WRK ALSO SHOWING THIS AS WELL. SPC HAS NORTHERN
NEW YORK IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING DUE
TO THE LOSS OF SURFACE DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS SHOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS START TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HAVE ALSO MENTION SOME MORE PATCHY
VALLEY FOG IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL APPROACH
90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING WITH GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY LEADING
TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.

ACTIVE WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A WARM HUMID AIR MASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT AND POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS INTO THE AREA DURING THE
MID-DAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS...INTERACTING WITH AMPLE SURFACE
INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO DEVELOPMENT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ANALYSIS
OF SEVERE PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS WIND BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH SOME ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE...BUT
WITH PROGGED PWATS AROUND 150-175% ABOVE NORMAL CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND URBAN STREET FLOODING. 3 DAYS
OUT THERE`S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
ABOVE FEATURES...BUT HAVE LEANED ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS WHERE THE GFS HAS STRUGGLED A LITTLE MORE.
HAVE INDICATED A 6-HOUR WINDOW OF CONVECTION LIKELY AT ANY ONE
LOCATION IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW...BUT IN REALITY IT WILL
LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 1-3 HOURS. WE`LL DIAL IT IN OVER THE NEXT 2
DAYS SO STAY TUNED.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...LEANING MORE ON THE FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND LIFT IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE GREENS IN THE
MORNING. CONDITIONS TREND DRIER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE NOSE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
WHILE ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. THE RESULT WILL BE GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH PARTLY CLOUDY/SUNNY EACH DAY WITH AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM POSSIBLE. TEMPS RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60.

ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MID-WEST AND GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CUMULUS WILL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND MAY AFFECT KMSS THROUGH 02Z.
TRICKY FORECAST FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT KMPV AND KSLK
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN QUESTION...BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND RISING DEWPOINTS FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION IFR FROM
08-12Z. ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE. AFTER 12Z MONDAY...DIURNAL CUMULUS
WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A SHOWER POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHC AT KSLK. WINDS SSW 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION WEDS PM/NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
IN AND /NEAR STORMS. LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURS MORNING.

00Z FRI - 00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OVER HIR TRRN PSBL.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...RJS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 202340
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
740 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY COULD APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 726 PM EDT SUNDAY...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NRN ADKS CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BUT WILL
DIMINISH IN THE WANING DIURNAL HEATING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO END
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ALSO
DIMINISHING...BUT SOME LOW AND MID LVL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LVL WEAK WAVE WILL PERSIST OVER NRN NY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR THE AREA LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH LGT TO CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE EARLY THROUGH MID MORNING HOURS.

EXPECT MONDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE M50S-L60S IN
THE VALLEYS AND L-M50S IN PORTIONS OF THE NEK AND HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 406 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY. A WEAKENING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY TO THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BTV 4KM WRK ALSO SHOWING THIS AS WELL. SPC HAS NORTHERN
NEW YORK IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING DUE
TO THE LOSS OF SURFACE DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS SHOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS START TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HAVE ALSO MENTION SOME MORE PATCHY
VALLEY FOG IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL APPROACH
90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING WITH GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY LEADING
TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.

ACTIVE WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A WARM HUMID AIR MASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT AND POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS INTO THE AREA DURING THE
MID-DAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS...INTERACTING WITH AMPLE SURFACE
INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO DEVELOPMENT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ANALYSIS
OF SEVERE PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS WIND BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH SOME ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE...BUT
WITH PROGGED PWATS AROUND 150-175% ABOVE NORMAL CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND URBAN STREET FLOODING. 3 DAYS
OUT THERE`S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
ABOVE FEATURES...BUT HAVE LEANED ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS WHERE THE GFS HAS STRUGGLED A LITTLE MORE.
HAVE INDICATED A 6-HOUR WINDOW OF CONVECTION LIKELY AT ANY ONE
LOCATION IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW...BUT IN REALITY IT WILL
LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 1-3 HOURS. WE`LL DIAL IT IN OVER THE NEXT 2
DAYS SO STAY TUNED.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...LEANING MORE ON THE FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND LIFT IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE GREENS IN THE
MORNING. CONDITIONS TREND DRIER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE NOSE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
WHILE ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. THE RESULT WILL BE GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH PARTLY CLOUDY/SUNNY EACH DAY WITH AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM POSSIBLE. TEMPS RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60.

ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MID-WEST AND GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CUMULUS WILL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND MAY AFFECT KMSS THROUGH 02Z.
TRICKY FORECAST FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT KMPV AND KSLK
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN QUESTION...BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND RISING DEWPOINTS FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION IFR FROM
08-12Z. ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE. AFTER 12Z MONDAY...DIURNAL CUMULUS
WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A SHOWER POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHC AT KSLK. WINDS SSW 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION WEDS PM/NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
IN AND /NEAR STORMS. LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURS MORNING.

00Z FRI - 00Z SAT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OVER HIR TRRN PSBL.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...RJS






000
FXUS61 KALY 202326
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
726 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP TRANQUIL WEATHER OVER THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT RETURNS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
TONIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME ADDED CLOUD COVER EXISTS OVER
SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER
DARK. SOME SCATTERED HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY DRIFT THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE RATHER TRANSPARENT.

WITH LITTLE OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL INTO THE 50S
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE MAINLY CLEAR SKY THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE
PATCHY FOG FORMING OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN LOW LYING AREAS AND NEAR
BODIES OF WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DAMPEN OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR
REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE LOOKS BE A LEE-INDUCED TROUGH
DEVELOPING MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...MAYBE UP TO
1000 J/KG...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS
TO BE A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT CAP IN THE MID LAYERS OF THE COLUMN.

THAT SAID...PWAT VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
(ABOUT 1.5 INCHES). WE INCREASED POPS TO 30 WELL WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SLIGHT TO THE
HUDSON RIVER. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES POP UP SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY "SHALLOW" AND NOT LAST ALL THAT LONG.

OTHERWISE...DRY TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PERSIST WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 80-85 IN THE
VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO INCREASE A LITTLE
INTO THE LOWER 60S...SO IT WILL FEEL A LITTLE MORE UNCOMFORTABLE
OUTSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS LOOKS DRY BUT SOMEWHAT MUGGY. ONCE AGAIN...SOME
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG MIGHT FORM. LOWS WILL BE 60-65 ALBANY
SOUTHWARD IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...55 TO 60 MOST OTHER AREAS.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES A LITTLE SO WILL BOTH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE TO MANY HEADING
OUTDOORS. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...80-85 HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL CREEP UP INTO THE
MID OR UPPER 60S PUSHING APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH COMBINED
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY) TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN MANY PLACES.

WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE OF CAP...THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT BE HARD TO COME BY DESPITE AND MARKED INCREASE IN SURFACE
INSTABILITY...RAMPING UP TO AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG. THERE WILL BE NO
REAL FOCUSING MECHANISMS TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED AND SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE HAD SLIGHT
CHANCES (AT LEAST FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHEASTWARD) WE
CONTINUED THIS IDEA...ONLY EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCES EVERYWHERE BY
AFTERNOON.

ONCE AGAIN...ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES FORM ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED. HOWEVER...THEY COULD BRIEFLY PULSE UP AND PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN...PERHAPS BRIEF GUSTY WIND AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SINCE WE
HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES AND IT IS TWO DAYS OUT...NO ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORM WORDING WILL BE USED ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY WITH ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUITE QUICKLY.

WEDNESDAY STARTS OUT WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND VERY MUGGY CONDITIONS. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BEGIN DESCENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA...AND COULD FIRE UP A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
INSTABILITY COULD REACH UP TO 3000 J/KG AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. RIGHT
NOW...THE WIND FIELDS DO NOT LOOK ROBUST SO NOT CONFIDENT OF ANY
"ORGANIZED" CONVECTION WITH THIS FRONT. IN FACT...THERE IS SOME HINT
THAT A LOT OF THE ACTIVITY COULD BE BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SHOWS
"ANA" CHARACTERISTICS (ONE THAT PARALLELS THE WIND FLOW ALOFT) WHICH
MEANS MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND EVEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD BE
RIGHT ALONG OR EVEN A LITTLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR NOW...INCREASED POPS TO 30 BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...AS HIGH AS 54 PERCENT (STILL CHANCE
THRESHOLD) ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS.

IT BE DOWNRIGHT HOT WITH HIGHS HIGHS AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS...MID
OR UPPER 80S MOST OF OUR ELEVATED TERRAIN...EXCEPT LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND CONVECTION.  HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...JUST FALLING SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY A SHOWERY BEGINNING AND END...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS IN BETWEEN.  A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SLIDING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY.  DRY WEATHER WILL
BE BRIEF TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN IN
RESPONSE TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM THE WEST.
THUS...INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES WILL BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS ON ANY GIVEN
DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN MAINLY THE 70S AND LOWER 80S EACH
DAY...WITH THE COOLEST DAY BEING THURSDAY...WHEN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN
PEAKS MAY FAIL TO CRACK 70 DEGREES.  LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BUT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER.  BY SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW READINGS WILL BE BACK INTO
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.  THIS IS NORMALLY ALBANY/S WARMEST
TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH HIGHS TYPICALLY AROUND 83 DEGREES...AND LOWS
IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO
SOME RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION IN FAVORED SITES SUCH AS KGFL/KPSF
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...SO WILL
MENTION MVFR WITH TEMPOS FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
WILL NOT MENTION ANY RESTRICTIONS FOR KALB/KPOU. ANY FOG SHOULD
BURN OFF BY 11Z-12Z MONDAY...WITH SCT TOWERING CU DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED TSRA
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE SO WILL NOT EXPLICITLY MENTION IN TAFS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
AROUND 5-6 KT ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOONS.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A NORMAL RECOVERY EACH NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF DEW
FORMATION. RH VALUES LOOK TO BE "AVERAGE" EACH OF THE NEXT TWO
AFTERNOON (GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 50 PERCENT).

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO INCREASE AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS PLOWING INTO AN INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID AIR
MASS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL UNTIL WEDNESDAY...RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KALY 202326
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
726 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP TRANQUIL WEATHER OVER THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT RETURNS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
TONIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME ADDED CLOUD COVER EXISTS OVER
SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER
DARK. SOME SCATTERED HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY DRIFT THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE RATHER TRANSPARENT.

WITH LITTLE OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL INTO THE 50S
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE MAINLY CLEAR SKY THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE
PATCHY FOG FORMING OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN LOW LYING AREAS AND NEAR
BODIES OF WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DAMPEN OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR
REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE LOOKS BE A LEE-INDUCED TROUGH
DEVELOPING MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...MAYBE UP TO
1000 J/KG...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS
TO BE A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT CAP IN THE MID LAYERS OF THE COLUMN.

THAT SAID...PWAT VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
(ABOUT 1.5 INCHES). WE INCREASED POPS TO 30 WELL WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SLIGHT TO THE
HUDSON RIVER. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES POP UP SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY "SHALLOW" AND NOT LAST ALL THAT LONG.

OTHERWISE...DRY TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PERSIST WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 80-85 IN THE
VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO INCREASE A LITTLE
INTO THE LOWER 60S...SO IT WILL FEEL A LITTLE MORE UNCOMFORTABLE
OUTSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS LOOKS DRY BUT SOMEWHAT MUGGY. ONCE AGAIN...SOME
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG MIGHT FORM. LOWS WILL BE 60-65 ALBANY
SOUTHWARD IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...55 TO 60 MOST OTHER AREAS.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES A LITTLE SO WILL BOTH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE TO MANY HEADING
OUTDOORS. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...80-85 HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL CREEP UP INTO THE
MID OR UPPER 60S PUSHING APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH COMBINED
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY) TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN MANY PLACES.

WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE OF CAP...THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT BE HARD TO COME BY DESPITE AND MARKED INCREASE IN SURFACE
INSTABILITY...RAMPING UP TO AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG. THERE WILL BE NO
REAL FOCUSING MECHANISMS TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED AND SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE HAD SLIGHT
CHANCES (AT LEAST FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHEASTWARD) WE
CONTINUED THIS IDEA...ONLY EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCES EVERYWHERE BY
AFTERNOON.

ONCE AGAIN...ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES FORM ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED. HOWEVER...THEY COULD BRIEFLY PULSE UP AND PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN...PERHAPS BRIEF GUSTY WIND AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SINCE WE
HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES AND IT IS TWO DAYS OUT...NO ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORM WORDING WILL BE USED ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY WITH ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUITE QUICKLY.

WEDNESDAY STARTS OUT WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND VERY MUGGY CONDITIONS. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BEGIN DESCENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA...AND COULD FIRE UP A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
INSTABILITY COULD REACH UP TO 3000 J/KG AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. RIGHT
NOW...THE WIND FIELDS DO NOT LOOK ROBUST SO NOT CONFIDENT OF ANY
"ORGANIZED" CONVECTION WITH THIS FRONT. IN FACT...THERE IS SOME HINT
THAT A LOT OF THE ACTIVITY COULD BE BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SHOWS
"ANA" CHARACTERISTICS (ONE THAT PARALLELS THE WIND FLOW ALOFT) WHICH
MEANS MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND EVEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD BE
RIGHT ALONG OR EVEN A LITTLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR NOW...INCREASED POPS TO 30 BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...AS HIGH AS 54 PERCENT (STILL CHANCE
THRESHOLD) ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS.

IT BE DOWNRIGHT HOT WITH HIGHS HIGHS AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS...MID
OR UPPER 80S MOST OF OUR ELEVATED TERRAIN...EXCEPT LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND CONVECTION.  HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...JUST FALLING SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY A SHOWERY BEGINNING AND END...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS IN BETWEEN.  A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SLIDING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY.  DRY WEATHER WILL
BE BRIEF TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN IN
RESPONSE TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM THE WEST.
THUS...INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES WILL BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS ON ANY GIVEN
DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN MAINLY THE 70S AND LOWER 80S EACH
DAY...WITH THE COOLEST DAY BEING THURSDAY...WHEN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN
PEAKS MAY FAIL TO CRACK 70 DEGREES.  LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BUT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER.  BY SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW READINGS WILL BE BACK INTO
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.  THIS IS NORMALLY ALBANY/S WARMEST
TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH HIGHS TYPICALLY AROUND 83 DEGREES...AND LOWS
IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO
SOME RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION IN FAVORED SITES SUCH AS KGFL/KPSF
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...SO WILL
MENTION MVFR WITH TEMPOS FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
WILL NOT MENTION ANY RESTRICTIONS FOR KALB/KPOU. ANY FOG SHOULD
BURN OFF BY 11Z-12Z MONDAY...WITH SCT TOWERING CU DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED TSRA
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE SO WILL NOT EXPLICITLY MENTION IN TAFS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
AROUND 5-6 KT ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOONS.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A NORMAL RECOVERY EACH NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF DEW
FORMATION. RH VALUES LOOK TO BE "AVERAGE" EACH OF THE NEXT TWO
AFTERNOON (GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 50 PERCENT).

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO INCREASE AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS PLOWING INTO AN INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID AIR
MASS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL UNTIL WEDNESDAY...RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KALY 202326
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
726 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP TRANQUIL WEATHER OVER THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT RETURNS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
TONIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME ADDED CLOUD COVER EXISTS OVER
SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER
DARK. SOME SCATTERED HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY DRIFT THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE RATHER TRANSPARENT.

WITH LITTLE OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL INTO THE 50S
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE MAINLY CLEAR SKY THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE
PATCHY FOG FORMING OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN LOW LYING AREAS AND NEAR
BODIES OF WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DAMPEN OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR
REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE LOOKS BE A LEE-INDUCED TROUGH
DEVELOPING MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...MAYBE UP TO
1000 J/KG...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS
TO BE A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT CAP IN THE MID LAYERS OF THE COLUMN.

THAT SAID...PWAT VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
(ABOUT 1.5 INCHES). WE INCREASED POPS TO 30 WELL WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SLIGHT TO THE
HUDSON RIVER. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES POP UP SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY "SHALLOW" AND NOT LAST ALL THAT LONG.

OTHERWISE...DRY TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PERSIST WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 80-85 IN THE
VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO INCREASE A LITTLE
INTO THE LOWER 60S...SO IT WILL FEEL A LITTLE MORE UNCOMFORTABLE
OUTSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS LOOKS DRY BUT SOMEWHAT MUGGY. ONCE AGAIN...SOME
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG MIGHT FORM. LOWS WILL BE 60-65 ALBANY
SOUTHWARD IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...55 TO 60 MOST OTHER AREAS.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES A LITTLE SO WILL BOTH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE TO MANY HEADING
OUTDOORS. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...80-85 HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL CREEP UP INTO THE
MID OR UPPER 60S PUSHING APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH COMBINED
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY) TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN MANY PLACES.

WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE OF CAP...THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT BE HARD TO COME BY DESPITE AND MARKED INCREASE IN SURFACE
INSTABILITY...RAMPING UP TO AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG. THERE WILL BE NO
REAL FOCUSING MECHANISMS TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED AND SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE HAD SLIGHT
CHANCES (AT LEAST FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHEASTWARD) WE
CONTINUED THIS IDEA...ONLY EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCES EVERYWHERE BY
AFTERNOON.

ONCE AGAIN...ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES FORM ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED. HOWEVER...THEY COULD BRIEFLY PULSE UP AND PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN...PERHAPS BRIEF GUSTY WIND AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SINCE WE
HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES AND IT IS TWO DAYS OUT...NO ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORM WORDING WILL BE USED ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY WITH ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUITE QUICKLY.

WEDNESDAY STARTS OUT WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND VERY MUGGY CONDITIONS. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BEGIN DESCENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA...AND COULD FIRE UP A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
INSTABILITY COULD REACH UP TO 3000 J/KG AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. RIGHT
NOW...THE WIND FIELDS DO NOT LOOK ROBUST SO NOT CONFIDENT OF ANY
"ORGANIZED" CONVECTION WITH THIS FRONT. IN FACT...THERE IS SOME HINT
THAT A LOT OF THE ACTIVITY COULD BE BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SHOWS
"ANA" CHARACTERISTICS (ONE THAT PARALLELS THE WIND FLOW ALOFT) WHICH
MEANS MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND EVEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD BE
RIGHT ALONG OR EVEN A LITTLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR NOW...INCREASED POPS TO 30 BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...AS HIGH AS 54 PERCENT (STILL CHANCE
THRESHOLD) ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS.

IT BE DOWNRIGHT HOT WITH HIGHS HIGHS AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS...MID
OR UPPER 80S MOST OF OUR ELEVATED TERRAIN...EXCEPT LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND CONVECTION.  HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...JUST FALLING SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY A SHOWERY BEGINNING AND END...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS IN BETWEEN.  A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SLIDING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY.  DRY WEATHER WILL
BE BRIEF TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN IN
RESPONSE TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM THE WEST.
THUS...INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES WILL BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS ON ANY GIVEN
DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN MAINLY THE 70S AND LOWER 80S EACH
DAY...WITH THE COOLEST DAY BEING THURSDAY...WHEN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN
PEAKS MAY FAIL TO CRACK 70 DEGREES.  LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BUT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER.  BY SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW READINGS WILL BE BACK INTO
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.  THIS IS NORMALLY ALBANY/S WARMEST
TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH HIGHS TYPICALLY AROUND 83 DEGREES...AND LOWS
IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO
SOME RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION IN FAVORED SITES SUCH AS KGFL/KPSF
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...SO WILL
MENTION MVFR WITH TEMPOS FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
WILL NOT MENTION ANY RESTRICTIONS FOR KALB/KPOU. ANY FOG SHOULD
BURN OFF BY 11Z-12Z MONDAY...WITH SCT TOWERING CU DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED TSRA
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE SO WILL NOT EXPLICITLY MENTION IN TAFS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
AROUND 5-6 KT ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOONS.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A NORMAL RECOVERY EACH NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF DEW
FORMATION. RH VALUES LOOK TO BE "AVERAGE" EACH OF THE NEXT TWO
AFTERNOON (GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 50 PERCENT).

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO INCREASE AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS PLOWING INTO AN INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID AIR
MASS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL UNTIL WEDNESDAY...RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KALY 202326
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
726 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP TRANQUIL WEATHER OVER THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT RETURNS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
TONIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME ADDED CLOUD COVER EXISTS OVER
SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER
DARK. SOME SCATTERED HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY DRIFT THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE RATHER TRANSPARENT.

WITH LITTLE OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL INTO THE 50S
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE MAINLY CLEAR SKY THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE
PATCHY FOG FORMING OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN LOW LYING AREAS AND NEAR
BODIES OF WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DAMPEN OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR
REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE LOOKS BE A LEE-INDUCED TROUGH
DEVELOPING MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...MAYBE UP TO
1000 J/KG...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS
TO BE A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT CAP IN THE MID LAYERS OF THE COLUMN.

THAT SAID...PWAT VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
(ABOUT 1.5 INCHES). WE INCREASED POPS TO 30 WELL WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SLIGHT TO THE
HUDSON RIVER. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES POP UP SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY "SHALLOW" AND NOT LAST ALL THAT LONG.

OTHERWISE...DRY TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PERSIST WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 80-85 IN THE
VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO INCREASE A LITTLE
INTO THE LOWER 60S...SO IT WILL FEEL A LITTLE MORE UNCOMFORTABLE
OUTSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS LOOKS DRY BUT SOMEWHAT MUGGY. ONCE AGAIN...SOME
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG MIGHT FORM. LOWS WILL BE 60-65 ALBANY
SOUTHWARD IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...55 TO 60 MOST OTHER AREAS.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES A LITTLE SO WILL BOTH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE TO MANY HEADING
OUTDOORS. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...80-85 HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL CREEP UP INTO THE
MID OR UPPER 60S PUSHING APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH COMBINED
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY) TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN MANY PLACES.

WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE OF CAP...THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT BE HARD TO COME BY DESPITE AND MARKED INCREASE IN SURFACE
INSTABILITY...RAMPING UP TO AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG. THERE WILL BE NO
REAL FOCUSING MECHANISMS TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED AND SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE HAD SLIGHT
CHANCES (AT LEAST FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHEASTWARD) WE
CONTINUED THIS IDEA...ONLY EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCES EVERYWHERE BY
AFTERNOON.

ONCE AGAIN...ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES FORM ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED. HOWEVER...THEY COULD BRIEFLY PULSE UP AND PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN...PERHAPS BRIEF GUSTY WIND AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SINCE WE
HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES AND IT IS TWO DAYS OUT...NO ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORM WORDING WILL BE USED ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY WITH ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUITE QUICKLY.

WEDNESDAY STARTS OUT WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND VERY MUGGY CONDITIONS. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BEGIN DESCENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA...AND COULD FIRE UP A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
INSTABILITY COULD REACH UP TO 3000 J/KG AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. RIGHT
NOW...THE WIND FIELDS DO NOT LOOK ROBUST SO NOT CONFIDENT OF ANY
"ORGANIZED" CONVECTION WITH THIS FRONT. IN FACT...THERE IS SOME HINT
THAT A LOT OF THE ACTIVITY COULD BE BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SHOWS
"ANA" CHARACTERISTICS (ONE THAT PARALLELS THE WIND FLOW ALOFT) WHICH
MEANS MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND EVEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD BE
RIGHT ALONG OR EVEN A LITTLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR NOW...INCREASED POPS TO 30 BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...AS HIGH AS 54 PERCENT (STILL CHANCE
THRESHOLD) ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS.

IT BE DOWNRIGHT HOT WITH HIGHS HIGHS AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS...MID
OR UPPER 80S MOST OF OUR ELEVATED TERRAIN...EXCEPT LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND CONVECTION.  HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...JUST FALLING SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY A SHOWERY BEGINNING AND END...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS IN BETWEEN.  A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SLIDING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY.  DRY WEATHER WILL
BE BRIEF TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN IN
RESPONSE TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM THE WEST.
THUS...INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES WILL BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS ON ANY GIVEN
DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN MAINLY THE 70S AND LOWER 80S EACH
DAY...WITH THE COOLEST DAY BEING THURSDAY...WHEN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN
PEAKS MAY FAIL TO CRACK 70 DEGREES.  LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BUT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER.  BY SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW READINGS WILL BE BACK INTO
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.  THIS IS NORMALLY ALBANY/S WARMEST
TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH HIGHS TYPICALLY AROUND 83 DEGREES...AND LOWS
IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO
SOME RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION IN FAVORED SITES SUCH AS KGFL/KPSF
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...SO WILL
MENTION MVFR WITH TEMPOS FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
WILL NOT MENTION ANY RESTRICTIONS FOR KALB/KPOU. ANY FOG SHOULD
BURN OFF BY 11Z-12Z MONDAY...WITH SCT TOWERING CU DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED TSRA
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE SO WILL NOT EXPLICITLY MENTION IN TAFS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
AROUND 5-6 KT ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOONS.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A NORMAL RECOVERY EACH NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF DEW
FORMATION. RH VALUES LOOK TO BE "AVERAGE" EACH OF THE NEXT TWO
AFTERNOON (GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 50 PERCENT).

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO INCREASE AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS PLOWING INTO AN INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID AIR
MASS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL UNTIL WEDNESDAY...RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 202245
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
645 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY COULD APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM EDT SUNDAY...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NRN ADKS CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BUT WILL
DIMINISH IN THE WANING DIURNAL HEATING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO END
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ALSO
DIMINISHING...BUT SOME LOW AND MID LVL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LVL WEAK WAVE WILL PERSIST OVER NRN NY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR THE AREA LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH LGT TO CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE EARLY THROUGH MID MORNING HOURS.

EXPECT MONDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE M50S-L60S IN
THE VALLEYS AND L-M50S IN PORTIONS OF THE NEK AND HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 406 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY. A WEAKENING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY TO THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BTV 4KM WRK ALSO SHOWING THIS AS WELL. SPC HAS NORTHERN
NEW YORK IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTL0OK FOR MONDAY. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING DUE
TO THE LOSS OF SURFACE DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS SHOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS START TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HAVE ALSO MENTION SOME MORE PATCHY
VALLEY FOG IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL APPROACH
90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING WITH GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY LEADING
TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.

ACTIVE WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A WARM HUMID AIR MASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT AND POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS INTO THE AREA DURING THE
MID-DAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS...INTERACTING WITH AMPLE SURFACE
INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO DEVELOPMENT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ANALYSIS
OF SEVERE PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS WIND BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH SOME ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE...BUT
WITH PROGGED PWATS AROUND 150-175% ABOVE NORMAL CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND URBAN STREET FLOODING. 3 DAYS
OUT THERE`S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
ABOVE FEATURES...BUT HAVE LEANED ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS WHERE THE GFS HAS STRUGGLED A LITTLE MORE.
HAVE INDICATED A 6-HOUR WINDOW OF CONVECTION LIKELY AT ANY ONE
LOCATION IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW...BUT IN REALITY IT WILL
LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 1-3 HOURS. WE`LL DIAL IT IN OVER THE NEXT 2
DAYS SO STAY TUNED.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...LEANING MORE ON THE FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND LIFT IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE GREENS IN THE
MORNING. CONDITIONS TREND DRIER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE NOSE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
WHILE ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. THE RESULT WILL BE GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH PARTLY CLOUDY/SUNNY EACH DAY WITH AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM POSSIBLE. TEMPS RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60.

ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MID-WEST AND GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING TO SKC AFTER 00Z. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT NOT
ENOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO EVEN MENTION VCSH. TRICKY FORECAST
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT KMPV AND KSLK WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS IN QUESTION...BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND RISING
DEWPOINTS FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION IFR FROM 08-12Z.
ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE
RULE. AFTER 12Z MONDAY...DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM ON
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH WINDS LICKING BACK UP TO 5-10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIP.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS THEN POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING. BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ADDITIONALLY POSSIBLE ON AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

00Z FRI - 00 SAT...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF








000
FXUS61 KBTV 202245
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
645 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY COULD APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM EDT SUNDAY...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NRN ADKS CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BUT WILL
DIMINISH IN THE WANING DIURNAL HEATING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO END
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ALSO
DIMINISHING...BUT SOME LOW AND MID LVL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LVL WEAK WAVE WILL PERSIST OVER NRN NY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR THE AREA LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH LGT TO CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE EARLY THROUGH MID MORNING HOURS.

EXPECT MONDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE M50S-L60S IN
THE VALLEYS AND L-M50S IN PORTIONS OF THE NEK AND HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 406 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY. A WEAKENING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY TO THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BTV 4KM WRK ALSO SHOWING THIS AS WELL. SPC HAS NORTHERN
NEW YORK IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTL0OK FOR MONDAY. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING DUE
TO THE LOSS OF SURFACE DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS SHOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS START TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HAVE ALSO MENTION SOME MORE PATCHY
VALLEY FOG IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL APPROACH
90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING WITH GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY LEADING
TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.

ACTIVE WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A WARM HUMID AIR MASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT AND POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS INTO THE AREA DURING THE
MID-DAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS...INTERACTING WITH AMPLE SURFACE
INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO DEVELOPMENT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ANALYSIS
OF SEVERE PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS WIND BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH SOME ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE...BUT
WITH PROGGED PWATS AROUND 150-175% ABOVE NORMAL CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND URBAN STREET FLOODING. 3 DAYS
OUT THERE`S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
ABOVE FEATURES...BUT HAVE LEANED ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS WHERE THE GFS HAS STRUGGLED A LITTLE MORE.
HAVE INDICATED A 6-HOUR WINDOW OF CONVECTION LIKELY AT ANY ONE
LOCATION IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW...BUT IN REALITY IT WILL
LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 1-3 HOURS. WE`LL DIAL IT IN OVER THE NEXT 2
DAYS SO STAY TUNED.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...LEANING MORE ON THE FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND LIFT IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE GREENS IN THE
MORNING. CONDITIONS TREND DRIER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE NOSE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
WHILE ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. THE RESULT WILL BE GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH PARTLY CLOUDY/SUNNY EACH DAY WITH AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM POSSIBLE. TEMPS RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60.

ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MID-WEST AND GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING TO SKC AFTER 00Z. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT NOT
ENOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO EVEN MENTION VCSH. TRICKY FORECAST
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT KMPV AND KSLK WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS IN QUESTION...BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND RISING
DEWPOINTS FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION IFR FROM 08-12Z.
ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE
RULE. AFTER 12Z MONDAY...DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM ON
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH WINDS LICKING BACK UP TO 5-10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIP.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS THEN POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING. BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ADDITIONALLY POSSIBLE ON AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

00Z FRI - 00 SAT...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KALY 202020
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
420 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TAKING ANY
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH IT BY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DRY AND COMFORTABLY WARM FOR THE REST OF
TODAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT RETURNS
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 420 PM EDT...STILL JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINED OVER
NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. THESE SHOULD BE GONE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. OTHERWISE IT IS PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS OUR REGION WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY
(DEWPOINTS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S).

FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS LOOK FOR ANY SHOWERS IN HERKIMER
COUNTY TO MOVE OUT...REPLACED BY AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. MOSTLY
SUNNY OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL FROM 75-80 TO 65-70 SHORTLY AFTER SUNDOWN.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND 5-10 MPH WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

AFTER SUNSET...LOOK FOR A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...LITTLE OR NO WIND AND
TEMPERATURES COOLING TO THE 50S LATE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE MAINLY
CLEAR SKY THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE PATCHY FOG FORMING
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN LOW LYING AREAS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DAMPEN OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR
REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE LOOKS BE A LEE-INDUCED TROUGH
DEVELOPING MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...MAYBE UP TO
1000 J/KG...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS
TO BE A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT CAP IN THE MID LAYERS OF THE COLUMN.

THAT SAID...PWAT VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
(ABOUT 1.5 INCHES). WE INCREASED POPS TO 30 WELL WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SLIGHT TO THE
HUDSON RIVER. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES POP UP SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY "SHALLOW" AND NOT LAST ALL THAT LONG.

OTHERWISE...DRY TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PERSIST WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 80-85 IN THE
VALLEYS...75-80 HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO INCREASE A LITTLE
INTO THE LOWER 60S...SO IT WILL FEEL A LITTLE MORE UNCOMFORTABLE
OUTSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS LOOKS DRY BUT SOMEWHAT MUGGY. ONCE AGAIN...SOME
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG MIGHT FORM. LOWS WILL BE 60-65 ALBANY
SOUTHWARD IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...55 TO 60 MOST OTHER AREAS.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES A LITTLE SO WILL BOTH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE TO MANY HEADING
OUTDOORS. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...80-85 HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL CREEP UP INTO THE
MID OR UPPER 60S PUSHING APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH COMBINED
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY) TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN MANY PLACES.

WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE OF CAP...THUNDERSTORMS
MIGHT BE HARD TO COME BY DESPITE AND MARKED INCREASE IN SURFACE
INSTABILITY...RAMPING UP TO AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG. THERE WILL BE NO
REAL FOCUSING MECHANISMS TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED AND SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE HAD SLIGHT
CHANCES (AT LEAST FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHEASTWARD) WE
CONTINUED THIS IDEA...ONLY EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCES EVERYWHERE BY
AFTERNOON.

ONCE AGAIN...ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES FORM ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED. HOWEVER...THEY COULD BRIEFLY PULSE UP AND PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN...PERHAPS BRIEF GUSTY WIND AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SINCE WE
HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES AND IT IS TWO DAYS OUT...NO ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORM WORDING WILL BE USED ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY WITH ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUITE QUICKLY.

WEDNESDAY STARTS OUT WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND VERY MUGGY CONDITIONS. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BEGIN DESCENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA...AND COULD FIRE UP A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
INSTABILITY COULD REACH UP TO 3000 J/KG AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. RIGHT
NOW...THE WIND FIELDS DO NOT LOOK ROBUST SO NOT CONFIDENT OF ANY
"ORGANIZED" CONVECTION WITH THIS FRONT. IN FACT...THERE IS SOME HINT
THAT A LOT OF THE ACTIVITY COULD BE BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SHOWS
"ANA" CHARACTERISTICS (ONE THAT PARALLELS THE WIND FLOW ALOFT) WHICH
MEANS MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND EVEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD BE
RIGHT ALONG OR EVEN A LITTLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR NOW...INCREASED POPS TO 30 BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...AS HIGH AS 54 PERCENT (STILL CHANCE
THRESHOLD) ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS.

IT BE DOWNRIGHT HOT WITH HIGHS HIGHS AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS...MID
OR UPPER 80S MOST OF OUR ELEVATED TERRAIN...EXCEPT LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND CONVECTION.  HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...JUST FALLING SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY A SHOWERY BEGINNING AND END...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS IN BETWEEN.  A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SLIDING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY.  DRY WEATHER WILL
BE BRIEF TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN IN
RESPONSE TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM THE WEST.
THUS...INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES WILL BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS ON ANY GIVEN
DAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN MAINLY THE 70S AND LOWER 80S EACH
DAY...WITH THE COOLEST DAY BEING THURSDAY...WHEN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN
PEAKS MAY FAIL TO CRACK 70 DEGREES.  LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...BUT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER.  BY SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW READINGS WILL BE BACK INTO
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.  THIS IS NORMALLY ALBANY/S WARMEST
TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH HIGHS TYPICALLY AROUND 83 DEGREES...AND LOWS
IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
GRADUALLY INCREASE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MVFR DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL/KPSF. IFR FOG ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT
HAS NOT BEEN INDICATED IN THE TAF FORECASTS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 8 KTS OR LESS FOR THE
REST OF TODAY...THEN UNDER 5 KTS TONIGHT OR CALM...THEN INCREASING
SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY TO 8 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF PM SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOONS.

OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A NORMAL RECOVERY EACH NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF DEW
FORMATION. RH VALUES LOOK TO BE "AVERAGE" EACH OF THE NEXT TWO
AFTERNOON (GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 50 PERCENT).

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO INCREASE AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS PLOWING INTO AN INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID AIR
MASS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.

WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL UNTIL WEDNESDAY...RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/FRUGIS









000
FXUS61 KBTV 202006
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
406 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY COULD APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING
SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 406 PM EDT SUNDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP NOT SHOWING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND WILL
MENTION SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE VALLEYS OF
EASTERN...NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT...AS WELL AS IN THE
VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FOG TO FORM
OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 406 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY. A WEAKENING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY TO THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BTV 4KM WRK ALSO SHOWING THIS AS WELL. SPC HAS NORTHERN
NEW YORK IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTL0OK FOR MONDAY. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING DUE
TO THE LOSS OF SURFACE DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS SHOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS START TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HAVE ALSO MENTION SOME MORE PATCHY
VALLEY FOG IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL APPROACH
90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING WITH GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY LEADING
TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.

ACTIVE WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A WARM HUMID AIR MASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT AND POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS INTO THE AREA DURING THE
MID-DAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS...INTERACTING WITH AMPLE SURFACE
INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO DEVELOPMENT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ANALYSIS
OF SEVERE PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS WIND BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH SOME ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE...BUT
WITH PROGGED PWATS AROUND 150-175% ABOVE NORMAL CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND URBAN STREET FLOODING. 3 DAYS
OUT THERE`S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
ABOVE FEATURES...BUT HAVE LEANED ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS WHERE THE GFS HAS STRUGGLED A LITTLE MORE.
HAVE INDICATED A 6-HOUR WINDOW OF CONVECTION LIKELY AT ANY ONE
LOCATION IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW...BUT IN REALITY IT WILL
LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 1-3 HOURS. WE`LL DIAL IT IN OVER THE NEXT 2
DAYS SO STAY TUNED.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...LEANING MORE ON THE FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND LIFT IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE GREENS IN THE
MORNING. CONDITIONS TREND DRIER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE NOSE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
WHILE ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. THE RESULT WILL BE GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH PARTLY CLOUDY/SUNNY EACH DAY WITH AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM POSSIBLE. TEMPS RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60.

ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MID-WEST AND GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING TO SKC AFTER 00Z. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT NOT
ENOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO EVEN MENTION VCSH. TRICKY FORECAST
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT KMPV AND KSLK WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS IN QUESTION...BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND RISING
DEWPOINTS FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION IFR FROM 08-12Z.
ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE
RULE. AFTER 12Z MONDAY...DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM ON
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH WINDS LICKING BACK UP TO 5-10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIP.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS THEN POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING. BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ADDITIONALLY POSSIBLE ON AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

00Z FRI - 00 SAT...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF








000
FXUS61 KBTV 202006
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
406 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY COULD APPROACH 90 IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING
SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 406 PM EDT SUNDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP NOT SHOWING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND WILL
MENTION SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE VALLEYS OF
EASTERN...NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT...AS WELL AS IN THE
VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FOG TO FORM
OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 406 PM EDT SUNDAY...EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY. A WEAKENING UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY TO THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BTV 4KM WRK ALSO SHOWING THIS AS WELL. SPC HAS NORTHERN
NEW YORK IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTL0OK FOR MONDAY. ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING DUE
TO THE LOSS OF SURFACE DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS SHOWING 500 MB
HEIGHTS START TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HAVE ALSO MENTION SOME MORE PATCHY
VALLEY FOG IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL APPROACH
90 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING WITH GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY LEADING
TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.

ACTIVE WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A WARM HUMID AIR MASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT AND POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS INTO THE AREA DURING THE
MID-DAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS...INTERACTING WITH AMPLE SURFACE
INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO DEVELOPMENT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ANALYSIS
OF SEVERE PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS WIND BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH SOME ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE...BUT
WITH PROGGED PWATS AROUND 150-175% ABOVE NORMAL CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND URBAN STREET FLOODING. 3 DAYS
OUT THERE`S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
ABOVE FEATURES...BUT HAVE LEANED ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS WHERE THE GFS HAS STRUGGLED A LITTLE MORE.
HAVE INDICATED A 6-HOUR WINDOW OF CONVECTION LIKELY AT ANY ONE
LOCATION IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW...BUT IN REALITY IT WILL
LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 1-3 HOURS. WE`LL DIAL IT IN OVER THE NEXT 2
DAYS SO STAY TUNED.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...LEANING MORE ON THE FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND LIFT IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE GREENS IN THE
MORNING. CONDITIONS TREND DRIER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE NOSE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
WHILE ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. THE RESULT WILL BE GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH PARTLY CLOUDY/SUNNY EACH DAY WITH AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM POSSIBLE. TEMPS RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60.

ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MID-WEST AND GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING TO SKC AFTER 00Z. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT NOT
ENOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO EVEN MENTION VCSH. TRICKY FORECAST
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT KMPV AND KSLK WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS IN QUESTION...BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND RISING
DEWPOINTS FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION IFR FROM 08-12Z.
ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE
RULE. AFTER 12Z MONDAY...DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM ON
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH WINDS LICKING BACK UP TO 5-10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIP.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS THEN POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING. BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ADDITIONALLY POSSIBLE ON AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

00Z FRI - 00 SAT...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF









000
FXUS61 KBTV 201855
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
255 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE RIGHT
INTO MIDWEEK. OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT SUNDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP
SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK JUST SOUTH OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. TREND ON RADAR HAS BEEN FOR
THESE WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE. HOWEVER... WILL
JUST KEEP UP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN CASE SOMETHING POPS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SUNDAY...ANY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. WARMER 925 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE THE DEW POINTS INCREASE A BIT AS
WELL. SO NOT ONLY WILL THIS MEAN WARMER TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...BUT INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. LINGERING WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING...HIGHER
TERRAIN FOR THAT MATTER AS WELL...WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK. HAVE KEPT THIS IDEA GOING IN THE FORECAST. AGAIN...ANY
SHOWERS END BY EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT MOVES IN ON TUESDAY AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM
EVEN FURTHER. THUS EXPECTING DRY WEATHER ALL AREAS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS
TO CREATE HIGHER HUMIDITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING WITH GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY LEADING
TO ABOVE NORMAL FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.

ACTIVE WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TAP TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH A WARM HUMID AIR MASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT AND POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS INTO THE AREA DURING THE
MID-DAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS...INTERACTING WITH AMPLE SURFACE
INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO DEVELOPMENT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ANALYSIS
OF SEVERE PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS WIND BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH SOME ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE...BUT
WITH PROGGED PWATS AROUND 150-175% ABOVE NORMAL CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND URBAN STREET FLOODING. 3 DAYS
OUT THERE`S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
ABOVE FEATURES...BUT HAVE LEANED ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS WHERE THE GFS HAS STRUGGLED A LITTLE MORE.
HAVE INDICATED A 6-HOUR WINDOW OF CONVECTION LIKELY AT ANY ONE
LOCATION IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW...BUT IN REALITY IT WILL
LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 1-3 HOURS. WE`LL DIAL IT IN OVER THE NEXT 2
DAYS SO STAY TUNED.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...LEANING MORE ON THE FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND LIFT IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE GREENS IN THE
MORNING. CONDITIONS TREND DRIER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MID-LEVEL
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE NOSE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
WHILE ALOFT WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. THE RESULT WILL BE GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH PARTLY CLOUDY/SUNNY EACH DAY WITH AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM POSSIBLE. TEMPS RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
VALUES WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
NEAR 60.

ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MID-WEST AND GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL RENEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING TO SKC AFTER 00Z. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT NOT
ENOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO EVEN MENTION VCSH. TRICKY FORECAST
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT KMPV AND KSLK WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS IN QUESTION...BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND RISING
DEWPOINTS FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION IFR FROM 08-12Z.
ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE
RULE. AFTER 12Z MONDAY...DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM ON
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH WINDS LICKING BACK UP TO 5-10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON - 12Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIP.

12Z WED - 00Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY WEDS AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
LINGERING MVFR SHOWERS THEN POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING. BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ADDITIONALLY POSSIBLE ON AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

00Z FRI - 00 SAT...VFR UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF







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