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000
FXUS61 KBTV 180223
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1023 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY. RATHER
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1023 PM EDT FRIDAY...MINOR ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO
T/TD/SKY DATA TO BETTER FIT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. OTHERWISE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TONIGHT. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
QUIET UNEVENTFUL NIGHT ON TAP TONIGHT UNDER CLR/PC SKIES AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. ONLY FEATURE
OF NOTE WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LINE SLIDING
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA IN THE 8-10 PM TIME FRAME. LITTLE FANFARE
WITH THIS FEATURE OTHER THAN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND A
LIGHT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. BTV/HRRR OUTPUT
SEEMINGLY BULLISH ON SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF A BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING
BUT FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE. KCXX RADAR DOES APPEAR TO BE SHOWING
SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER
FROM MONTREAL EAST, BUT CANADIAN OBSERVATIONS REMAIN PCPN-FREE AND
WITH SUCH DRY LOWER LEVELS FEEL THAT ANYTHING THAT WOULD FALL OUT
OF THE SKY WOULD BE MINIMAL AT BEST. BEST SHOT AT A SPRINKLE WOULD
BE THROUGH 10 PM ACROSS THE FAR NRN VT MTNS OTHERWISE DRY WX
EXPECTED. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODELS SHOWING A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. HAVE PUT IN A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...EXCEPT HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT ON SATURDAY. GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHEAST VERMONT
MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY GIVEN FULL SUN...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF
THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. GFS MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT TOO COLD FOR
MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER END OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS MIN GUIDANCE.

ECMWF...GFS AND NAM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SLOWING DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS INTO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. HAVE
JUST SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE ALSO GONE WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...OVERALL THOUGHTS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK
HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH THIS REFRESH OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. 12Z
GUIDANCE STILL SIMILAR WITH ONE ANOTHER AND RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS
RUNS AND INDICATING A RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOLISH WEEK COMING
UP. MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BE COMING THROUGH MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY, AND WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL (PERHAPS 1" IN PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS) AND
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS).  DAILY DETAILS ARE BELOW...

MONDAY:
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTRY WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PUSHING FAIRLY QUICKLY
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS LOW REACHES OUR
LATITUDE, A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW-MID LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND HELPS
TO TRANSPORT A PRETTY DEEP RIVER OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THIS MOISTURE HAS BOTH GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
ORIGINS, AND AS A RESULT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
APPROACHING 1" (WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). AT
THE SAME TIME, THE 0.5 TO 1KM WINDS STRENGTHEN INTO THE 45-55KT
RANGE. GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AND INDICATIONS OF AN
INVERSION AROUND MOUNTAIN SUMMIT LEVEL, THIS INDICATES TO ME THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SOME OF THOSE STRONG WINDS TO GET FUNNELED BETWEEN
THOSE SUMMITS AND INVERSION AND RESULT IN SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. TRIED TO BEEF UP THE
WIND GUSTS TO SHOW SOME GUSTS OF 40-50MPH. ON THE RAINFALL ASPECT,
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG JET SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS COULD BE PRETTY STRONG - PERHAPS AN 1" OR SO ON THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS AND PERHAPS THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE `DACKS, HOWEVER SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD KEEP QPF LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND
SHADOWING FROM THE GREENS WILL KEEP THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION A
BIT DRIER. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME SHARP RISES ON SOME RIVERS.
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE LATER GUIDANCE TO SEE IF THERE WILL BE ANY
SORT OF FLOOD THREAT. ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT, STUCK CLOSE TO A
GUIDANCE MIX. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP IT ON THE COOL SIDE (50S)
WITH 40S AT NIGHT. IN SUMMARY -- ONE OF THOSE RAW/WET DAYS.

TUESDAY: LOOKS LIKE A SMALL SECONDARY LOW WILL PASS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. AS IT DOES SO, RAIN SHOULD START COMING TO AN
END. MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON - ESPECIALLY THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, BUT OTHERWISE LOTS OF CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN
ON THE COOLER SIDE COMPARED TO NORMAL - MORE 50S.

WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY & FRIDAY: NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE FROM DAY TO DAY.
LOOKS LIKE WE`LL SEE A BIG BOWLING BALL CUT-OFF LOW SET UP
SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN CANADA. GFS AND EURO ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT
IN EXACT LOCATION (EURO A BIT MORE SOUTH), BUT THE NET RESULT IS
THE SAME. LOTS OF CLOUDS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE -1 TO -4C RANGE,
THUS IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE HIGHER SUMMITS (ABOVE 2000FT)
TO SEE SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS. COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION OVER THE 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD AT THOSE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
NOTHING TO REALLY LATCH ONTO WITH REGARD TO IF THERE WILL BE A
PREFERRED TIME FOR SHOWERS VS PREFERRED TIME OF BRIEF DRY PERIODS.
AS SUCH, JUST PAINTED IN A LOT OF 30-50% POPS THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR THOUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO, WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR OR BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY IN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, TRENDING BACK TO VFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

A WEAK COLD FRONT PRODUCING THIN LINE OF SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS WILL
MOVE SOUTH FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NEXT 2 HOURS. WHILE A DRY
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED, ITS MOST NOTABLE EFFECT WILL BE A SHIFT TO
WEST- NORTHWEST/NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO AROUND 10 KTS BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BEHIND IT AS BRIEF SUBSIDENCE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

A MORE POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
IN INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN DIURNAL
HEATING, SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF LOWERED VISIBILITY.
SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CELLS GIVEN LOW
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS (AROUND 4 KFT AGL) AND RATHER STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHOWERS TO END WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS BECOME SOUTH UNDER 10 KTS IN THE MORNING, BUT
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST AND GUSTY (UP TO 25-28 KTS) IN STRONG
AFTERNOON MIXING.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z - 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ANY LEFTOVER AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DISSIPATE EARLY. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM
NOON THROUGH 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WESTERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE NOT PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR EASTERN RUTLAND COUNTY DUE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AROUND 30 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. FUELS ARE DRY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. THE CONDITIONS ARE RATHER MARGINAL
THAT RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED ON SATURDAY...SO
WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON THIS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ011-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...LOCONTO/NASH
FIRE WEATHER...WGH



000
FXUS61 KBTV 180223
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1023 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY. RATHER
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1023 PM EDT FRIDAY...MINOR ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO
T/TD/SKY DATA TO BETTER FIT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. OTHERWISE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TONIGHT. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
QUIET UNEVENTFUL NIGHT ON TAP TONIGHT UNDER CLR/PC SKIES AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. ONLY FEATURE
OF NOTE WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LINE SLIDING
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA IN THE 8-10 PM TIME FRAME. LITTLE FANFARE
WITH THIS FEATURE OTHER THAN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND A
LIGHT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. BTV/HRRR OUTPUT
SEEMINGLY BULLISH ON SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF A BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING
BUT FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE. KCXX RADAR DOES APPEAR TO BE SHOWING
SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER
FROM MONTREAL EAST, BUT CANADIAN OBSERVATIONS REMAIN PCPN-FREE AND
WITH SUCH DRY LOWER LEVELS FEEL THAT ANYTHING THAT WOULD FALL OUT
OF THE SKY WOULD BE MINIMAL AT BEST. BEST SHOT AT A SPRINKLE WOULD
BE THROUGH 10 PM ACROSS THE FAR NRN VT MTNS OTHERWISE DRY WX
EXPECTED. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODELS SHOWING A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. HAVE PUT IN A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...EXCEPT HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT ON SATURDAY. GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHEAST VERMONT
MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY GIVEN FULL SUN...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF
THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. GFS MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT TOO COLD FOR
MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER END OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS MIN GUIDANCE.

ECMWF...GFS AND NAM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SLOWING DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS INTO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. HAVE
JUST SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE ALSO GONE WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...OVERALL THOUGHTS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK
HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH THIS REFRESH OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. 12Z
GUIDANCE STILL SIMILAR WITH ONE ANOTHER AND RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS
RUNS AND INDICATING A RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOLISH WEEK COMING
UP. MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BE COMING THROUGH MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY, AND WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL (PERHAPS 1" IN PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS) AND
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS).  DAILY DETAILS ARE BELOW...

MONDAY:
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTRY WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PUSHING FAIRLY QUICKLY
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS LOW REACHES OUR
LATITUDE, A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW-MID LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND HELPS
TO TRANSPORT A PRETTY DEEP RIVER OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THIS MOISTURE HAS BOTH GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
ORIGINS, AND AS A RESULT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
APPROACHING 1" (WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). AT
THE SAME TIME, THE 0.5 TO 1KM WINDS STRENGTHEN INTO THE 45-55KT
RANGE. GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AND INDICATIONS OF AN
INVERSION AROUND MOUNTAIN SUMMIT LEVEL, THIS INDICATES TO ME THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SOME OF THOSE STRONG WINDS TO GET FUNNELED BETWEEN
THOSE SUMMITS AND INVERSION AND RESULT IN SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. TRIED TO BEEF UP THE
WIND GUSTS TO SHOW SOME GUSTS OF 40-50MPH. ON THE RAINFALL ASPECT,
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG JET SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS COULD BE PRETTY STRONG - PERHAPS AN 1" OR SO ON THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS AND PERHAPS THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE `DACKS, HOWEVER SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD KEEP QPF LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND
SHADOWING FROM THE GREENS WILL KEEP THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION A
BIT DRIER. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME SHARP RISES ON SOME RIVERS.
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE LATER GUIDANCE TO SEE IF THERE WILL BE ANY
SORT OF FLOOD THREAT. ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT, STUCK CLOSE TO A
GUIDANCE MIX. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP IT ON THE COOL SIDE (50S)
WITH 40S AT NIGHT. IN SUMMARY -- ONE OF THOSE RAW/WET DAYS.

TUESDAY: LOOKS LIKE A SMALL SECONDARY LOW WILL PASS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. AS IT DOES SO, RAIN SHOULD START COMING TO AN
END. MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON - ESPECIALLY THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, BUT OTHERWISE LOTS OF CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN
ON THE COOLER SIDE COMPARED TO NORMAL - MORE 50S.

WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY & FRIDAY: NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE FROM DAY TO DAY.
LOOKS LIKE WE`LL SEE A BIG BOWLING BALL CUT-OFF LOW SET UP
SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN CANADA. GFS AND EURO ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT
IN EXACT LOCATION (EURO A BIT MORE SOUTH), BUT THE NET RESULT IS
THE SAME. LOTS OF CLOUDS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE -1 TO -4C RANGE,
THUS IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE HIGHER SUMMITS (ABOVE 2000FT)
TO SEE SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS. COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION OVER THE 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD AT THOSE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
NOTHING TO REALLY LATCH ONTO WITH REGARD TO IF THERE WILL BE A
PREFERRED TIME FOR SHOWERS VS PREFERRED TIME OF BRIEF DRY PERIODS.
AS SUCH, JUST PAINTED IN A LOT OF 30-50% POPS THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR THOUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO, WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR OR BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY IN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, TRENDING BACK TO VFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

A WEAK COLD FRONT PRODUCING THIN LINE OF SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS WILL
MOVE SOUTH FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NEXT 2 HOURS. WHILE A DRY
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED, ITS MOST NOTABLE EFFECT WILL BE A SHIFT TO
WEST- NORTHWEST/NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO AROUND 10 KTS BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BEHIND IT AS BRIEF SUBSIDENCE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

A MORE POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
IN INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN DIURNAL
HEATING, SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF LOWERED VISIBILITY.
SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CELLS GIVEN LOW
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS (AROUND 4 KFT AGL) AND RATHER STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHOWERS TO END WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS BECOME SOUTH UNDER 10 KTS IN THE MORNING, BUT
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST AND GUSTY (UP TO 25-28 KTS) IN STRONG
AFTERNOON MIXING.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z - 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ANY LEFTOVER AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DISSIPATE EARLY. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM
NOON THROUGH 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WESTERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE NOT PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR EASTERN RUTLAND COUNTY DUE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AROUND 30 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. FUELS ARE DRY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. THE CONDITIONS ARE RATHER MARGINAL
THAT RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED ON SATURDAY...SO
WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON THIS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ011-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...LOCONTO/NASH
FIRE WEATHER...WGH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 180223
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1023 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY. RATHER
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1023 PM EDT FRIDAY...MINOR ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO
T/TD/SKY DATA TO BETTER FIT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. OTHERWISE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TONIGHT. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
QUIET UNEVENTFUL NIGHT ON TAP TONIGHT UNDER CLR/PC SKIES AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. ONLY FEATURE
OF NOTE WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LINE SLIDING
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA IN THE 8-10 PM TIME FRAME. LITTLE FANFARE
WITH THIS FEATURE OTHER THAN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND A
LIGHT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. BTV/HRRR OUTPUT
SEEMINGLY BULLISH ON SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF A BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING
BUT FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE. KCXX RADAR DOES APPEAR TO BE SHOWING
SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER
FROM MONTREAL EAST, BUT CANADIAN OBSERVATIONS REMAIN PCPN-FREE AND
WITH SUCH DRY LOWER LEVELS FEEL THAT ANYTHING THAT WOULD FALL OUT
OF THE SKY WOULD BE MINIMAL AT BEST. BEST SHOT AT A SPRINKLE WOULD
BE THROUGH 10 PM ACROSS THE FAR NRN VT MTNS OTHERWISE DRY WX
EXPECTED. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODELS SHOWING A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. HAVE PUT IN A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...EXCEPT HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT ON SATURDAY. GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHEAST VERMONT
MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY GIVEN FULL SUN...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF
THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. GFS MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT TOO COLD FOR
MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER END OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS MIN GUIDANCE.

ECMWF...GFS AND NAM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SLOWING DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS INTO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. HAVE
JUST SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE ALSO GONE WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...OVERALL THOUGHTS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK
HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH THIS REFRESH OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. 12Z
GUIDANCE STILL SIMILAR WITH ONE ANOTHER AND RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS
RUNS AND INDICATING A RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOLISH WEEK COMING
UP. MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BE COMING THROUGH MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY, AND WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL (PERHAPS 1" IN PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS) AND
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS).  DAILY DETAILS ARE BELOW...

MONDAY:
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTRY WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PUSHING FAIRLY QUICKLY
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS LOW REACHES OUR
LATITUDE, A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW-MID LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND HELPS
TO TRANSPORT A PRETTY DEEP RIVER OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THIS MOISTURE HAS BOTH GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
ORIGINS, AND AS A RESULT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
APPROACHING 1" (WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). AT
THE SAME TIME, THE 0.5 TO 1KM WINDS STRENGTHEN INTO THE 45-55KT
RANGE. GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AND INDICATIONS OF AN
INVERSION AROUND MOUNTAIN SUMMIT LEVEL, THIS INDICATES TO ME THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SOME OF THOSE STRONG WINDS TO GET FUNNELED BETWEEN
THOSE SUMMITS AND INVERSION AND RESULT IN SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. TRIED TO BEEF UP THE
WIND GUSTS TO SHOW SOME GUSTS OF 40-50MPH. ON THE RAINFALL ASPECT,
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG JET SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS COULD BE PRETTY STRONG - PERHAPS AN 1" OR SO ON THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS AND PERHAPS THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE `DACKS, HOWEVER SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD KEEP QPF LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND
SHADOWING FROM THE GREENS WILL KEEP THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION A
BIT DRIER. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME SHARP RISES ON SOME RIVERS.
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE LATER GUIDANCE TO SEE IF THERE WILL BE ANY
SORT OF FLOOD THREAT. ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT, STUCK CLOSE TO A
GUIDANCE MIX. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP IT ON THE COOL SIDE (50S)
WITH 40S AT NIGHT. IN SUMMARY -- ONE OF THOSE RAW/WET DAYS.

TUESDAY: LOOKS LIKE A SMALL SECONDARY LOW WILL PASS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. AS IT DOES SO, RAIN SHOULD START COMING TO AN
END. MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON - ESPECIALLY THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, BUT OTHERWISE LOTS OF CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN
ON THE COOLER SIDE COMPARED TO NORMAL - MORE 50S.

WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY & FRIDAY: NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE FROM DAY TO DAY.
LOOKS LIKE WE`LL SEE A BIG BOWLING BALL CUT-OFF LOW SET UP
SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN CANADA. GFS AND EURO ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT
IN EXACT LOCATION (EURO A BIT MORE SOUTH), BUT THE NET RESULT IS
THE SAME. LOTS OF CLOUDS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE -1 TO -4C RANGE,
THUS IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE HIGHER SUMMITS (ABOVE 2000FT)
TO SEE SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS. COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION OVER THE 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD AT THOSE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
NOTHING TO REALLY LATCH ONTO WITH REGARD TO IF THERE WILL BE A
PREFERRED TIME FOR SHOWERS VS PREFERRED TIME OF BRIEF DRY PERIODS.
AS SUCH, JUST PAINTED IN A LOT OF 30-50% POPS THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR THOUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO, WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR OR BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY IN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, TRENDING BACK TO VFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

A WEAK COLD FRONT PRODUCING THIN LINE OF SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS WILL
MOVE SOUTH FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NEXT 2 HOURS. WHILE A DRY
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED, ITS MOST NOTABLE EFFECT WILL BE A SHIFT TO
WEST- NORTHWEST/NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO AROUND 10 KTS BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BEHIND IT AS BRIEF SUBSIDENCE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

A MORE POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
IN INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN DIURNAL
HEATING, SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF LOWERED VISIBILITY.
SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CELLS GIVEN LOW
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS (AROUND 4 KFT AGL) AND RATHER STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHOWERS TO END WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS BECOME SOUTH UNDER 10 KTS IN THE MORNING, BUT
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST AND GUSTY (UP TO 25-28 KTS) IN STRONG
AFTERNOON MIXING.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z - 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ANY LEFTOVER AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DISSIPATE EARLY. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM
NOON THROUGH 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WESTERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE NOT PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR EASTERN RUTLAND COUNTY DUE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AROUND 30 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. FUELS ARE DRY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. THE CONDITIONS ARE RATHER MARGINAL
THAT RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED ON SATURDAY...SO
WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON THIS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ011-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...LOCONTO/NASH
FIRE WEATHER...WGH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 180223
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1023 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY. RATHER
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1023 PM EDT FRIDAY...MINOR ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO
T/TD/SKY DATA TO BETTER FIT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. OTHERWISE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TONIGHT. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
QUIET UNEVENTFUL NIGHT ON TAP TONIGHT UNDER CLR/PC SKIES AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. ONLY FEATURE
OF NOTE WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LINE SLIDING
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA IN THE 8-10 PM TIME FRAME. LITTLE FANFARE
WITH THIS FEATURE OTHER THAN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND A
LIGHT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. BTV/HRRR OUTPUT
SEEMINGLY BULLISH ON SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF A BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING
BUT FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE. KCXX RADAR DOES APPEAR TO BE SHOWING
SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER
FROM MONTREAL EAST, BUT CANADIAN OBSERVATIONS REMAIN PCPN-FREE AND
WITH SUCH DRY LOWER LEVELS FEEL THAT ANYTHING THAT WOULD FALL OUT
OF THE SKY WOULD BE MINIMAL AT BEST. BEST SHOT AT A SPRINKLE WOULD
BE THROUGH 10 PM ACROSS THE FAR NRN VT MTNS OTHERWISE DRY WX
EXPECTED. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODELS SHOWING A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. HAVE PUT IN A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...EXCEPT HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT ON SATURDAY. GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHEAST VERMONT
MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY GIVEN FULL SUN...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF
THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. GFS MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT TOO COLD FOR
MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER END OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS MIN GUIDANCE.

ECMWF...GFS AND NAM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SLOWING DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS INTO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. HAVE
JUST SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE ALSO GONE WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...OVERALL THOUGHTS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK
HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH THIS REFRESH OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. 12Z
GUIDANCE STILL SIMILAR WITH ONE ANOTHER AND RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS
RUNS AND INDICATING A RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOLISH WEEK COMING
UP. MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BE COMING THROUGH MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY, AND WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL (PERHAPS 1" IN PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS) AND
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS).  DAILY DETAILS ARE BELOW...

MONDAY:
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTRY WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PUSHING FAIRLY QUICKLY
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS LOW REACHES OUR
LATITUDE, A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW-MID LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND HELPS
TO TRANSPORT A PRETTY DEEP RIVER OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THIS MOISTURE HAS BOTH GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
ORIGINS, AND AS A RESULT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
APPROACHING 1" (WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). AT
THE SAME TIME, THE 0.5 TO 1KM WINDS STRENGTHEN INTO THE 45-55KT
RANGE. GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AND INDICATIONS OF AN
INVERSION AROUND MOUNTAIN SUMMIT LEVEL, THIS INDICATES TO ME THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SOME OF THOSE STRONG WINDS TO GET FUNNELED BETWEEN
THOSE SUMMITS AND INVERSION AND RESULT IN SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. TRIED TO BEEF UP THE
WIND GUSTS TO SHOW SOME GUSTS OF 40-50MPH. ON THE RAINFALL ASPECT,
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG JET SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS COULD BE PRETTY STRONG - PERHAPS AN 1" OR SO ON THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS AND PERHAPS THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE `DACKS, HOWEVER SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD KEEP QPF LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND
SHADOWING FROM THE GREENS WILL KEEP THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION A
BIT DRIER. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME SHARP RISES ON SOME RIVERS.
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE LATER GUIDANCE TO SEE IF THERE WILL BE ANY
SORT OF FLOOD THREAT. ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT, STUCK CLOSE TO A
GUIDANCE MIX. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP IT ON THE COOL SIDE (50S)
WITH 40S AT NIGHT. IN SUMMARY -- ONE OF THOSE RAW/WET DAYS.

TUESDAY: LOOKS LIKE A SMALL SECONDARY LOW WILL PASS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. AS IT DOES SO, RAIN SHOULD START COMING TO AN
END. MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON - ESPECIALLY THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, BUT OTHERWISE LOTS OF CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN
ON THE COOLER SIDE COMPARED TO NORMAL - MORE 50S.

WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY & FRIDAY: NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE FROM DAY TO DAY.
LOOKS LIKE WE`LL SEE A BIG BOWLING BALL CUT-OFF LOW SET UP
SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN CANADA. GFS AND EURO ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT
IN EXACT LOCATION (EURO A BIT MORE SOUTH), BUT THE NET RESULT IS
THE SAME. LOTS OF CLOUDS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE -1 TO -4C RANGE,
THUS IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE HIGHER SUMMITS (ABOVE 2000FT)
TO SEE SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS. COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION OVER THE 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD AT THOSE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
NOTHING TO REALLY LATCH ONTO WITH REGARD TO IF THERE WILL BE A
PREFERRED TIME FOR SHOWERS VS PREFERRED TIME OF BRIEF DRY PERIODS.
AS SUCH, JUST PAINTED IN A LOT OF 30-50% POPS THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR THOUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO, WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR OR BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY IN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, TRENDING BACK TO VFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

A WEAK COLD FRONT PRODUCING THIN LINE OF SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS WILL
MOVE SOUTH FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NEXT 2 HOURS. WHILE A DRY
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED, ITS MOST NOTABLE EFFECT WILL BE A SHIFT TO
WEST- NORTHWEST/NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO AROUND 10 KTS BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BEHIND IT AS BRIEF SUBSIDENCE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

A MORE POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
IN INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN DIURNAL
HEATING, SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF LOWERED VISIBILITY.
SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CELLS GIVEN LOW
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS (AROUND 4 KFT AGL) AND RATHER STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHOWERS TO END WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS BECOME SOUTH UNDER 10 KTS IN THE MORNING, BUT
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST AND GUSTY (UP TO 25-28 KTS) IN STRONG
AFTERNOON MIXING.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z - 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ANY LEFTOVER AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DISSIPATE EARLY. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM
NOON THROUGH 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WESTERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE NOT PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR EASTERN RUTLAND COUNTY DUE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AROUND 30 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. FUELS ARE DRY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. THE CONDITIONS ARE RATHER MARGINAL
THAT RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED ON SATURDAY...SO
WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON THIS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ011-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...LOCONTO/NASH
FIRE WEATHER...WGH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 180223
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1023 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY. RATHER
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1023 PM EDT FRIDAY...MINOR ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO
T/TD/SKY DATA TO BETTER FIT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. OTHERWISE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TONIGHT. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
QUIET UNEVENTFUL NIGHT ON TAP TONIGHT UNDER CLR/PC SKIES AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. ONLY FEATURE
OF NOTE WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LINE SLIDING
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA IN THE 8-10 PM TIME FRAME. LITTLE FANFARE
WITH THIS FEATURE OTHER THAN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND A
LIGHT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. BTV/HRRR OUTPUT
SEEMINGLY BULLISH ON SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF A BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING
BUT FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE. KCXX RADAR DOES APPEAR TO BE SHOWING
SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER
FROM MONTREAL EAST, BUT CANADIAN OBSERVATIONS REMAIN PCPN-FREE AND
WITH SUCH DRY LOWER LEVELS FEEL THAT ANYTHING THAT WOULD FALL OUT
OF THE SKY WOULD BE MINIMAL AT BEST. BEST SHOT AT A SPRINKLE WOULD
BE THROUGH 10 PM ACROSS THE FAR NRN VT MTNS OTHERWISE DRY WX
EXPECTED. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODELS SHOWING A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. HAVE PUT IN A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...EXCEPT HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT ON SATURDAY. GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHEAST VERMONT
MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY GIVEN FULL SUN...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF
THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. GFS MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT TOO COLD FOR
MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER END OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS MIN GUIDANCE.

ECMWF...GFS AND NAM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SLOWING DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS INTO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. HAVE
JUST SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE ALSO GONE WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...OVERALL THOUGHTS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK
HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH THIS REFRESH OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. 12Z
GUIDANCE STILL SIMILAR WITH ONE ANOTHER AND RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS
RUNS AND INDICATING A RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOLISH WEEK COMING
UP. MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BE COMING THROUGH MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY, AND WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL (PERHAPS 1" IN PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS) AND
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS).  DAILY DETAILS ARE BELOW...

MONDAY:
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTRY WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PUSHING FAIRLY QUICKLY
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS LOW REACHES OUR
LATITUDE, A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW-MID LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND HELPS
TO TRANSPORT A PRETTY DEEP RIVER OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THIS MOISTURE HAS BOTH GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
ORIGINS, AND AS A RESULT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
APPROACHING 1" (WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). AT
THE SAME TIME, THE 0.5 TO 1KM WINDS STRENGTHEN INTO THE 45-55KT
RANGE. GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AND INDICATIONS OF AN
INVERSION AROUND MOUNTAIN SUMMIT LEVEL, THIS INDICATES TO ME THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SOME OF THOSE STRONG WINDS TO GET FUNNELED BETWEEN
THOSE SUMMITS AND INVERSION AND RESULT IN SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. TRIED TO BEEF UP THE
WIND GUSTS TO SHOW SOME GUSTS OF 40-50MPH. ON THE RAINFALL ASPECT,
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG JET SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS COULD BE PRETTY STRONG - PERHAPS AN 1" OR SO ON THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS AND PERHAPS THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE `DACKS, HOWEVER SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD KEEP QPF LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND
SHADOWING FROM THE GREENS WILL KEEP THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION A
BIT DRIER. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME SHARP RISES ON SOME RIVERS.
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE LATER GUIDANCE TO SEE IF THERE WILL BE ANY
SORT OF FLOOD THREAT. ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT, STUCK CLOSE TO A
GUIDANCE MIX. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP IT ON THE COOL SIDE (50S)
WITH 40S AT NIGHT. IN SUMMARY -- ONE OF THOSE RAW/WET DAYS.

TUESDAY: LOOKS LIKE A SMALL SECONDARY LOW WILL PASS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. AS IT DOES SO, RAIN SHOULD START COMING TO AN
END. MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON - ESPECIALLY THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, BUT OTHERWISE LOTS OF CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN
ON THE COOLER SIDE COMPARED TO NORMAL - MORE 50S.

WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY & FRIDAY: NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE FROM DAY TO DAY.
LOOKS LIKE WE`LL SEE A BIG BOWLING BALL CUT-OFF LOW SET UP
SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN CANADA. GFS AND EURO ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT
IN EXACT LOCATION (EURO A BIT MORE SOUTH), BUT THE NET RESULT IS
THE SAME. LOTS OF CLOUDS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE -1 TO -4C RANGE,
THUS IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE HIGHER SUMMITS (ABOVE 2000FT)
TO SEE SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS. COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION OVER THE 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD AT THOSE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
NOTHING TO REALLY LATCH ONTO WITH REGARD TO IF THERE WILL BE A
PREFERRED TIME FOR SHOWERS VS PREFERRED TIME OF BRIEF DRY PERIODS.
AS SUCH, JUST PAINTED IN A LOT OF 30-50% POPS THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR THOUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO, WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR OR BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY IN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, TRENDING BACK TO VFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

A WEAK COLD FRONT PRODUCING THIN LINE OF SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS WILL
MOVE SOUTH FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NEXT 2 HOURS. WHILE A DRY
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED, ITS MOST NOTABLE EFFECT WILL BE A SHIFT TO
WEST- NORTHWEST/NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO AROUND 10 KTS BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BEHIND IT AS BRIEF SUBSIDENCE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

A MORE POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
IN INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN DIURNAL
HEATING, SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF LOWERED VISIBILITY.
SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CELLS GIVEN LOW
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS (AROUND 4 KFT AGL) AND RATHER STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHOWERS TO END WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS BECOME SOUTH UNDER 10 KTS IN THE MORNING, BUT
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST AND GUSTY (UP TO 25-28 KTS) IN STRONG
AFTERNOON MIXING.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z - 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ANY LEFTOVER AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DISSIPATE EARLY. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM
NOON THROUGH 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WESTERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE NOT PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR EASTERN RUTLAND COUNTY DUE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AROUND 30 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. FUELS ARE DRY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. THE CONDITIONS ARE RATHER MARGINAL
THAT RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED ON SATURDAY...SO
WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON THIS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ011-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...LOCONTO/NASH
FIRE WEATHER...WGH



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 180209
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1009 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION AND THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND IT
WILL BECOME WINDY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR...DRY...AND LESS
WINDY WEATHER.  WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS
SUPPORT CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT...SO JUST VERY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST IF ANY. MORE DETAILS IN THE PREVIOUS
AFD BELOW...

LOOKING UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BE
QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND W/SW QUEBEC BTWN
06Z-12Z/SAT. THE CLIPPER TYPE LOWS AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES
BY DAYBREAK. SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE NRN MOST
ZONES WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR MOST OF THE REGION CLEAR OR MOSTLY
CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M40S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND BERKSHIRES SOUTH...AND MAINLY M30S
TO AROUND 40F TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2 PM...AND LOCATIONS SOUTH
BETWEEN 2 PM AND 5 PM. THIS BOUNDARY IS MOISTURE STARVED...AND
ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE INCLUDED IN THE FCST FOR THE SRN
DACKS...NRN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND SRN VT.

THE BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND IN ITS WAKE AS BETTER MIXING OCCURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME WIND
GUSTS IN THE 30-39 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE IF WE MIX FROM 5-8
KFT AGL. IF WIDESPREAD 40 KT GUST VALUES ARE POSSIBLE...THEN A
WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER. WE ARE EXPECTING WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH. SOME OF THESE STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE ACROSS
THE NRN CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...HELDERBERGS...CAPITAL
REGION...AND THE N-CNTRL TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES. MIXING OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT...WILL ALLOW DEWPTS TO LOWER INTO THE 20S TO M30S
IN THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE MIN RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THE LACK OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 5
DAYS...RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS...AND WIND GUSTS
OF 25 MPH OR GREATER WITH COORDINATION WITH OUR FIRE WX
USERS...NEIGHBORING WFOS /BGM...BTV...OKX...BOX...GYX...AND BUF/ AND
SPC HAS WARRANTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON TO 8 PM TOMORROW.
THE FIRE WX WATCH WAS LEFT OUT OF WRN WINDHAM CTY DUE THE
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE SNOW PACK AND COLLAB WITH USERS. PORTIONS OF
THE SRN DACKS HAVE SNOW PACK...AND PARTS DO NOT...BUT BASED ON
FIRE CONTACT INPUT AND CONSISTENCY FROM THE MID WEEK THEY HAVE
BEEN KEPT IN THE FIRE WX WATCH FOR NOW. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WX
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

ALSO...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE ISSUED FOR CERTAIN
LOCATIONS IF FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL TOMORROW BASED ON
NEW INPUT FROM SOME OF THE USERS AND COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON /SRN VT/.

MAX TEMPS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING EFFECTS
WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
M70S NEAR KPOU...AND U50S TO M60S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AND THE
WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE NW WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE.

SAT NIGHT...H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO -4C FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...NRN BERKSHIRES AND HELDERBERGS NORTH...AND 0C TO -3C TO
THE SOUTH WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  THE
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH A COLD
CANADIAN SFC HIGH RIDGING S/SE FROM WRN QUEBEC. THE SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...AND THE WINDS LIGHT TO CALM FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE M20S TO L30S OVER THE
MTNS...AND PARTS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND MID TO U30S IN
THE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...A NICE CLOSE TO THE WEEKEND WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND. LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING.
LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW H850 TEMPS TO RISE TO
+2C TO +4C. THE MIXING DEPTHS WILL BE NO WHERE NEAR AS HIGH AS
SAT. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE AND PLEASANT WITH U50S TO L60S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER THE MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IMPACTING THE
LOWER 48. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A SECONDARY LOW FORMING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THE TIMING STILL VARIES ON THE ONSET OF THE RAIN AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT BASED ON THE NWP GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS DOWN STREAM...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES BTWN 06Z-12Z FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO START MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST BEFORE DAYBREAK.
CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED BTWN 09Z-12Z/MON. A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A 500HPA CUTOFF WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS
AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS
BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

THE FIRST AND STRONGEST SHORT WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
EARLY ON MONDAY WITH A STEADY SOAKING RAIN EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST CATEGORICAL POPS (80-90 PERCENT) DURING THIS TIME
WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. ON TUESDAY
THIS LOW WILL STILL BE AFFECTING THE REGION AS THE STEADY RAIN LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD...BUT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.

AFTER THIS FIRST SYSTEM MOVES OUT...TIMING OF THE NEXT MUCH WEAKER
SYSTEMS WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT. HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST 20 TO 40
PERCENT POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
IT WILL ALSO BE COOLER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SNOW SHOWERS ALSO
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURE WISE...MONDAY WILL BE A RAW DAY WITH A STEADY RAIN AND
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S. COOLER AFTER THAT WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT
(MAINLY P6SM SKC FOR TONIGHT). ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 15Z AND 17Z. LITTLE WEATHER IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD AND HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
AT 00Z SUNDAY.

SURFACE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN
BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR GUSTY WINDS...VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES IS IN EFFECT FROM 12PM TO 8PM
SATURDAY FOR EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT AND BENNINGTON AND EASTERN
WINDHAM COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED IN COORDINATION WITH THE NEW YORK
STATE DEC FOREST RANGERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...VERMONT
DEPARTMENT OF FORESTS...PARKS AND RECREATION...MASSACHUSETTS
DEPARTMENT OF CONSERVATION AND RECREATION...CONNECTICUT DEEP
DIVISION OF FORESTRY AND SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES.

TONIGHT...RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 80-100 PERCENT WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 5 MPH...EXCEPT FOR WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5-10 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SHIFTING THE
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...VERY DRY AIR WILL BE
IN ITS WAKE...WITH RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER
20S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BETWEEN 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 5000-8000 FEET
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 70S. IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT RED FLAG
CRITERIA WILL BE MET...A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS DAYTIME HEATING ENDS LATE SATURDAY
EVENING...POTENTIAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL END AS WINDS SUBSIDE TO
5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN
60-80 PERCENT...WITH 80-100 PERCENT RECOVERY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE RH VALUES GENERALLY 30-45 PERCENT WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAINFALL IS LIKELY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WITH
VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRNDACKS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VERMONT...BUT ONLY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HUNDREDTH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MOSTLY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A STORM
SYSTEM WILL A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TOWARDS DAY BREAK ON
MONDAY.

THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
INDICATES THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN
THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEASTERN
BERKSHIRE COUNTY. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS STILL
HAVE 4 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT.

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL AT
THIS TIME WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR VTZ013-015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IRL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 180209
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1009 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION AND THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND IT
WILL BECOME WINDY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR...DRY...AND LESS
WINDY WEATHER.  WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS
SUPPORT CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT...SO JUST VERY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST IF ANY. MORE DETAILS IN THE PREVIOUS
AFD BELOW...

LOOKING UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BE
QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND W/SW QUEBEC BTWN
06Z-12Z/SAT. THE CLIPPER TYPE LOWS AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES
BY DAYBREAK. SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE NRN MOST
ZONES WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR MOST OF THE REGION CLEAR OR MOSTLY
CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M40S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND BERKSHIRES SOUTH...AND MAINLY M30S
TO AROUND 40F TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2 PM...AND LOCATIONS SOUTH
BETWEEN 2 PM AND 5 PM. THIS BOUNDARY IS MOISTURE STARVED...AND
ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE INCLUDED IN THE FCST FOR THE SRN
DACKS...NRN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND SRN VT.

THE BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND IN ITS WAKE AS BETTER MIXING OCCURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME WIND
GUSTS IN THE 30-39 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE IF WE MIX FROM 5-8
KFT AGL. IF WIDESPREAD 40 KT GUST VALUES ARE POSSIBLE...THEN A
WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER. WE ARE EXPECTING WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH. SOME OF THESE STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE ACROSS
THE NRN CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...HELDERBERGS...CAPITAL
REGION...AND THE N-CNTRL TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES. MIXING OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT...WILL ALLOW DEWPTS TO LOWER INTO THE 20S TO M30S
IN THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE MIN RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THE LACK OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 5
DAYS...RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS...AND WIND GUSTS
OF 25 MPH OR GREATER WITH COORDINATION WITH OUR FIRE WX
USERS...NEIGHBORING WFOS /BGM...BTV...OKX...BOX...GYX...AND BUF/ AND
SPC HAS WARRANTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON TO 8 PM TOMORROW.
THE FIRE WX WATCH WAS LEFT OUT OF WRN WINDHAM CTY DUE THE
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE SNOW PACK AND COLLAB WITH USERS. PORTIONS OF
THE SRN DACKS HAVE SNOW PACK...AND PARTS DO NOT...BUT BASED ON
FIRE CONTACT INPUT AND CONSISTENCY FROM THE MID WEEK THEY HAVE
BEEN KEPT IN THE FIRE WX WATCH FOR NOW. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WX
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

ALSO...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE ISSUED FOR CERTAIN
LOCATIONS IF FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL TOMORROW BASED ON
NEW INPUT FROM SOME OF THE USERS AND COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON /SRN VT/.

MAX TEMPS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING EFFECTS
WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
M70S NEAR KPOU...AND U50S TO M60S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AND THE
WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE NW WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE.

SAT NIGHT...H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO -4C FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...NRN BERKSHIRES AND HELDERBERGS NORTH...AND 0C TO -3C TO
THE SOUTH WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  THE
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH A COLD
CANADIAN SFC HIGH RIDGING S/SE FROM WRN QUEBEC. THE SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...AND THE WINDS LIGHT TO CALM FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE M20S TO L30S OVER THE
MTNS...AND PARTS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND MID TO U30S IN
THE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...A NICE CLOSE TO THE WEEKEND WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND. LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING.
LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW H850 TEMPS TO RISE TO
+2C TO +4C. THE MIXING DEPTHS WILL BE NO WHERE NEAR AS HIGH AS
SAT. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE AND PLEASANT WITH U50S TO L60S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER THE MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IMPACTING THE
LOWER 48. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A SECONDARY LOW FORMING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THE TIMING STILL VARIES ON THE ONSET OF THE RAIN AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT BASED ON THE NWP GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS DOWN STREAM...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES BTWN 06Z-12Z FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO START MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST BEFORE DAYBREAK.
CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED BTWN 09Z-12Z/MON. A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A 500HPA CUTOFF WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS
AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS
BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

THE FIRST AND STRONGEST SHORT WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
EARLY ON MONDAY WITH A STEADY SOAKING RAIN EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST CATEGORICAL POPS (80-90 PERCENT) DURING THIS TIME
WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. ON TUESDAY
THIS LOW WILL STILL BE AFFECTING THE REGION AS THE STEADY RAIN LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD...BUT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.

AFTER THIS FIRST SYSTEM MOVES OUT...TIMING OF THE NEXT MUCH WEAKER
SYSTEMS WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT. HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST 20 TO 40
PERCENT POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
IT WILL ALSO BE COOLER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SNOW SHOWERS ALSO
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURE WISE...MONDAY WILL BE A RAW DAY WITH A STEADY RAIN AND
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S. COOLER AFTER THAT WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT
(MAINLY P6SM SKC FOR TONIGHT). ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 15Z AND 17Z. LITTLE WEATHER IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD AND HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
AT 00Z SUNDAY.

SURFACE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN
BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR GUSTY WINDS...VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES IS IN EFFECT FROM 12PM TO 8PM
SATURDAY FOR EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT AND BENNINGTON AND EASTERN
WINDHAM COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED IN COORDINATION WITH THE NEW YORK
STATE DEC FOREST RANGERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...VERMONT
DEPARTMENT OF FORESTS...PARKS AND RECREATION...MASSACHUSETTS
DEPARTMENT OF CONSERVATION AND RECREATION...CONNECTICUT DEEP
DIVISION OF FORESTRY AND SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES.

TONIGHT...RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 80-100 PERCENT WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 5 MPH...EXCEPT FOR WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5-10 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SHIFTING THE
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...VERY DRY AIR WILL BE
IN ITS WAKE...WITH RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER
20S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BETWEEN 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 5000-8000 FEET
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 70S. IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT RED FLAG
CRITERIA WILL BE MET...A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS DAYTIME HEATING ENDS LATE SATURDAY
EVENING...POTENTIAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL END AS WINDS SUBSIDE TO
5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN
60-80 PERCENT...WITH 80-100 PERCENT RECOVERY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE RH VALUES GENERALLY 30-45 PERCENT WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAINFALL IS LIKELY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WITH
VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRNDACKS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VERMONT...BUT ONLY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HUNDREDTH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MOSTLY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A STORM
SYSTEM WILL A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TOWARDS DAY BREAK ON
MONDAY.

THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
INDICATES THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN
THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEASTERN
BERKSHIRE COUNTY. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS STILL
HAVE 4 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT.

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL AT
THIS TIME WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR VTZ013-015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IRL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KBTV 172350
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
750 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY. RATHER
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 750 PM EDT FRIDAY...QUIET UNEVENTFUL NIGHT ON TAP TONIGHT
UNDER CLR/PC SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO
AROUND 40. ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/WIND
SHIFT LINE SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA IN THE 8-10 PM TIME
FRAME. LITTLE FANFARE WITH THIS FEATURE OTHER THAN SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER AND A LIGHT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BTV/HRRR OUTPUT SEEMINGLY BULLISH ON SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF A
BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS NORTHERN
COUNTIES THIS EVENING BUT FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE. KCXX RADAR DOES
APPEAR TO BE SHOWING SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTH
OF THE INTL BORDER FROM MONTREAL EAST, BUT CANADIAN OBSERVATIONS
REMAIN PCPN-FREE AND WITH SUCH DRY LOWER LEVELS FEEL THAT ANYTHING
THAT WOULD FALL OUT OF THE SKY WOULD BE MINIMAL AT BEST. BEST SHOT
AT A SPRINKLE WOULD BE THROUGH 10 PM ACROSS THE FAR NRN VT MTNS
OTHERWISE DRY WX EXPECTED. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODELS SHOWING A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. HAVE PUT IN A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...EXCEPT HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT ON SATURDAY. GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHEAST VERMONT
MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY GIVEN FULL SUN...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF
THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. GFS MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT TOO COLD FOR
MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER END OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS MIN GUIDANCE.

ECMWF...GFS AND NAM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SLOWING DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS INTO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. HAVE
JUST SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE ALSO GONE WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...OVERALL THOUGHTS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK
HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH THIS REFRESH OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. 12Z
GUIDANCE STILL SIMILAR WITH ONE ANOTHER AND RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS
RUNS AND INDICATING A RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOLISH WEEK COMING
UP. MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BE COMING THROUGH MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY, AND WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL (PERHAPS 1" IN PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS) AND
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS).  DAILY DETAILS ARE BELOW...

MONDAY:
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTRY WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PUSHING FAIRLY QUICKLY
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS LOW REACHES OUR
LATITUDE, A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW-MID LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND HELPS
TO TRANSPORT A PRETTY DEEP RIVER OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THIS MOISTURE HAS BOTH GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
ORIGINS, AND AS A RESULT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
APPROACHING 1" (WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). AT
THE SAME TIME, THE 0.5 TO 1KM WINDS STRENGTHEN INTO THE 45-55KT
RANGE. GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AND INDICATIONS OF AN
INVERSION AROUND MOUNTAIN SUMMIT LEVEL, THIS INDICATES TO ME THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SOME OF THOSE STRONG WINDS TO GET FUNNELED BETWEEN
THOSE SUMMITS AND INVERSION AND RESULT IN SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. TRIED TO BEEF UP THE
WIND GUSTS TO SHOW SOME GUSTS OF 40-50MPH. ON THE RAINFALL ASPECT,
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG JET SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS COULD BE PRETTY STRONG - PERHAPS AN 1" OR SO ON THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS AND PERHAPS THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE `DACKS, HOWEVER SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD KEEP QPF LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND
SHADOWING FROM THE GREENS WILL KEEP THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION A
BIT DRIER. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME SHARP RISES ON SOME RIVERS.
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE LATER GUIDANCE TO SEE IF THERE WILL BE ANY
SORT OF FLOOD THREAT. ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT, STUCK CLOSE TO A
GUIDANCE MIX. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP IT ON THE COOL SIDE (50S)
WITH 40S AT NIGHT. IN SUMMARY -- ONE OF THOSE RAW/WET DAYS.

TUESDAY: LOOKS LIKE A SMALL SECONDARY LOW WILL PASS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. AS IT DOES SO, RAIN SHOULD START COMING TO AN
END. MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON - ESPECIALLY THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, BUT OTHERWISE LOTS OF CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN
ON THE COOLER SIDE COMPARED TO NORMAL - MORE 50S.

WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY & FRIDAY: NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE FROM DAY TO DAY.
LOOKS LIKE WE`LL SEE A BIG BOWLING BALL CUT-OFF LOW SET UP
SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN CANADA. GFS AND EURO ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT
IN EXACT LOCATION (EURO A BIT MORE SOUTH), BUT THE NET RESULT IS
THE SAME. LOTS OF CLOUDS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE -1 TO -4C RANGE,
THUS IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE HIGHER SUMMITS (ABOVE 2000FT)
TO SEE SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS. COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION OVER THE 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD AT THOSE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
NOTHING TO REALLY LATCH ONTO WITH REGARD TO IF THERE WILL BE A
PREFERRED TIME FOR SHOWERS VS PREFERRED TIME OF BRIEF DRY PERIODS.
AS SUCH, JUST PAINTED IN A LOT OF 30-50% POPS THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR THOUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO, WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR OR BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY IN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, TRENDING BACK TO VFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

A WEAK COLD FRONT PRODUCING THIN LINE OF SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS WILL
MOVE SOUTH FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NEXT 2 HOURS. WHILE A DRY
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED, ITS MOST NOTABLE EFFECT WILL BE A SHIFT TO
WEST- NORTHWEST/NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO AROUND 10 KTS BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BEHIND IT AS BRIEF SUBSIDENCE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

A MORE POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
IN INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN DIURNAL
HEATING, SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF LOWERED VISIBILITY.
SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CELLS GIVEN LOW
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS (AROUND 4 KFT AGL) AND RATHER STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHOWERS TO END WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS BECOME SOUTH UNDER 10 KTS IN THE MORNING, BUT
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST AND GUSTY (UP TO 25-28 KTS) IN STRONG
AFTERNOON MIXING.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z - 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ANY LEFTOVER AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DISSIPATE EARLY. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM
NOON THROUGH 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WESTERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE NOT PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR EASTERN RUTLAND COUNTY DUE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AROUND 30 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. FUELS ARE DRY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. THE CONDITIONS ARE RATHER MARGINAL
THAT RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED ON SATURDAY...SO
WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON THIS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ011-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...LOCONTO/NASH
FIRE WEATHER...WGH



000
FXUS61 KBTV 172350
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
750 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY. RATHER
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 750 PM EDT FRIDAY...QUIET UNEVENTFUL NIGHT ON TAP TONIGHT
UNDER CLR/PC SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO
AROUND 40. ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/WIND
SHIFT LINE SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA IN THE 8-10 PM TIME
FRAME. LITTLE FANFARE WITH THIS FEATURE OTHER THAN SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER AND A LIGHT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BTV/HRRR OUTPUT SEEMINGLY BULLISH ON SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF A
BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS NORTHERN
COUNTIES THIS EVENING BUT FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE. KCXX RADAR DOES
APPEAR TO BE SHOWING SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTH
OF THE INTL BORDER FROM MONTREAL EAST, BUT CANADIAN OBSERVATIONS
REMAIN PCPN-FREE AND WITH SUCH DRY LOWER LEVELS FEEL THAT ANYTHING
THAT WOULD FALL OUT OF THE SKY WOULD BE MINIMAL AT BEST. BEST SHOT
AT A SPRINKLE WOULD BE THROUGH 10 PM ACROSS THE FAR NRN VT MTNS
OTHERWISE DRY WX EXPECTED. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODELS SHOWING A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. HAVE PUT IN A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...EXCEPT HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT ON SATURDAY. GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHEAST VERMONT
MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY GIVEN FULL SUN...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF
THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. GFS MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT TOO COLD FOR
MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER END OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS MIN GUIDANCE.

ECMWF...GFS AND NAM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SLOWING DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS INTO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. HAVE
JUST SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE ALSO GONE WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...OVERALL THOUGHTS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK
HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH THIS REFRESH OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. 12Z
GUIDANCE STILL SIMILAR WITH ONE ANOTHER AND RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS
RUNS AND INDICATING A RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOLISH WEEK COMING
UP. MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BE COMING THROUGH MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY, AND WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL (PERHAPS 1" IN PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS) AND
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS).  DAILY DETAILS ARE BELOW...

MONDAY:
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTRY WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PUSHING FAIRLY QUICKLY
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS LOW REACHES OUR
LATITUDE, A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW-MID LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND HELPS
TO TRANSPORT A PRETTY DEEP RIVER OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THIS MOISTURE HAS BOTH GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
ORIGINS, AND AS A RESULT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
APPROACHING 1" (WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). AT
THE SAME TIME, THE 0.5 TO 1KM WINDS STRENGTHEN INTO THE 45-55KT
RANGE. GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AND INDICATIONS OF AN
INVERSION AROUND MOUNTAIN SUMMIT LEVEL, THIS INDICATES TO ME THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SOME OF THOSE STRONG WINDS TO GET FUNNELED BETWEEN
THOSE SUMMITS AND INVERSION AND RESULT IN SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. TRIED TO BEEF UP THE
WIND GUSTS TO SHOW SOME GUSTS OF 40-50MPH. ON THE RAINFALL ASPECT,
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG JET SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS COULD BE PRETTY STRONG - PERHAPS AN 1" OR SO ON THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS AND PERHAPS THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE `DACKS, HOWEVER SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD KEEP QPF LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND
SHADOWING FROM THE GREENS WILL KEEP THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION A
BIT DRIER. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME SHARP RISES ON SOME RIVERS.
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE LATER GUIDANCE TO SEE IF THERE WILL BE ANY
SORT OF FLOOD THREAT. ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT, STUCK CLOSE TO A
GUIDANCE MIX. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP IT ON THE COOL SIDE (50S)
WITH 40S AT NIGHT. IN SUMMARY -- ONE OF THOSE RAW/WET DAYS.

TUESDAY: LOOKS LIKE A SMALL SECONDARY LOW WILL PASS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. AS IT DOES SO, RAIN SHOULD START COMING TO AN
END. MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON - ESPECIALLY THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, BUT OTHERWISE LOTS OF CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN
ON THE COOLER SIDE COMPARED TO NORMAL - MORE 50S.

WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY & FRIDAY: NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE FROM DAY TO DAY.
LOOKS LIKE WE`LL SEE A BIG BOWLING BALL CUT-OFF LOW SET UP
SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN CANADA. GFS AND EURO ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT
IN EXACT LOCATION (EURO A BIT MORE SOUTH), BUT THE NET RESULT IS
THE SAME. LOTS OF CLOUDS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE -1 TO -4C RANGE,
THUS IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE HIGHER SUMMITS (ABOVE 2000FT)
TO SEE SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS. COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION OVER THE 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD AT THOSE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
NOTHING TO REALLY LATCH ONTO WITH REGARD TO IF THERE WILL BE A
PREFERRED TIME FOR SHOWERS VS PREFERRED TIME OF BRIEF DRY PERIODS.
AS SUCH, JUST PAINTED IN A LOT OF 30-50% POPS THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR THOUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO, WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR OR BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY IN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, TRENDING BACK TO VFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

A WEAK COLD FRONT PRODUCING THIN LINE OF SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS WILL
MOVE SOUTH FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NEXT 2 HOURS. WHILE A DRY
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED, ITS MOST NOTABLE EFFECT WILL BE A SHIFT TO
WEST- NORTHWEST/NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO AROUND 10 KTS BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BEHIND IT AS BRIEF SUBSIDENCE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

A MORE POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
IN INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN DIURNAL
HEATING, SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF LOWERED VISIBILITY.
SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CELLS GIVEN LOW
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS (AROUND 4 KFT AGL) AND RATHER STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHOWERS TO END WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS BECOME SOUTH UNDER 10 KTS IN THE MORNING, BUT
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST AND GUSTY (UP TO 25-28 KTS) IN STRONG
AFTERNOON MIXING.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z - 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ANY LEFTOVER AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DISSIPATE EARLY. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM
NOON THROUGH 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WESTERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE NOT PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR EASTERN RUTLAND COUNTY DUE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AROUND 30 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. FUELS ARE DRY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. THE CONDITIONS ARE RATHER MARGINAL
THAT RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED ON SATURDAY...SO
WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON THIS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ011-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...LOCONTO/NASH
FIRE WEATHER...WGH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 172350
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
750 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY. RATHER
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 750 PM EDT FRIDAY...QUIET UNEVENTFUL NIGHT ON TAP TONIGHT
UNDER CLR/PC SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO
AROUND 40. ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/WIND
SHIFT LINE SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA IN THE 8-10 PM TIME
FRAME. LITTLE FANFARE WITH THIS FEATURE OTHER THAN SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER AND A LIGHT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BTV/HRRR OUTPUT SEEMINGLY BULLISH ON SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF A
BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS NORTHERN
COUNTIES THIS EVENING BUT FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE. KCXX RADAR DOES
APPEAR TO BE SHOWING SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTH
OF THE INTL BORDER FROM MONTREAL EAST, BUT CANADIAN OBSERVATIONS
REMAIN PCPN-FREE AND WITH SUCH DRY LOWER LEVELS FEEL THAT ANYTHING
THAT WOULD FALL OUT OF THE SKY WOULD BE MINIMAL AT BEST. BEST SHOT
AT A SPRINKLE WOULD BE THROUGH 10 PM ACROSS THE FAR NRN VT MTNS
OTHERWISE DRY WX EXPECTED. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODELS SHOWING A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. HAVE PUT IN A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...EXCEPT HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT ON SATURDAY. GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHEAST VERMONT
MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY GIVEN FULL SUN...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF
THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. GFS MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT TOO COLD FOR
MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER END OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS MIN GUIDANCE.

ECMWF...GFS AND NAM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SLOWING DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS INTO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. HAVE
JUST SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE ALSO GONE WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...OVERALL THOUGHTS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK
HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH THIS REFRESH OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. 12Z
GUIDANCE STILL SIMILAR WITH ONE ANOTHER AND RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS
RUNS AND INDICATING A RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOLISH WEEK COMING
UP. MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BE COMING THROUGH MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY, AND WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL (PERHAPS 1" IN PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS) AND
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS).  DAILY DETAILS ARE BELOW...

MONDAY:
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTRY WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PUSHING FAIRLY QUICKLY
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS LOW REACHES OUR
LATITUDE, A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW-MID LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND HELPS
TO TRANSPORT A PRETTY DEEP RIVER OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THIS MOISTURE HAS BOTH GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
ORIGINS, AND AS A RESULT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
APPROACHING 1" (WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). AT
THE SAME TIME, THE 0.5 TO 1KM WINDS STRENGTHEN INTO THE 45-55KT
RANGE. GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AND INDICATIONS OF AN
INVERSION AROUND MOUNTAIN SUMMIT LEVEL, THIS INDICATES TO ME THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SOME OF THOSE STRONG WINDS TO GET FUNNELED BETWEEN
THOSE SUMMITS AND INVERSION AND RESULT IN SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. TRIED TO BEEF UP THE
WIND GUSTS TO SHOW SOME GUSTS OF 40-50MPH. ON THE RAINFALL ASPECT,
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG JET SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS COULD BE PRETTY STRONG - PERHAPS AN 1" OR SO ON THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS AND PERHAPS THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE `DACKS, HOWEVER SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD KEEP QPF LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND
SHADOWING FROM THE GREENS WILL KEEP THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION A
BIT DRIER. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME SHARP RISES ON SOME RIVERS.
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE LATER GUIDANCE TO SEE IF THERE WILL BE ANY
SORT OF FLOOD THREAT. ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT, STUCK CLOSE TO A
GUIDANCE MIX. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP IT ON THE COOL SIDE (50S)
WITH 40S AT NIGHT. IN SUMMARY -- ONE OF THOSE RAW/WET DAYS.

TUESDAY: LOOKS LIKE A SMALL SECONDARY LOW WILL PASS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. AS IT DOES SO, RAIN SHOULD START COMING TO AN
END. MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON - ESPECIALLY THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, BUT OTHERWISE LOTS OF CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN
ON THE COOLER SIDE COMPARED TO NORMAL - MORE 50S.

WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY & FRIDAY: NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE FROM DAY TO DAY.
LOOKS LIKE WE`LL SEE A BIG BOWLING BALL CUT-OFF LOW SET UP
SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN CANADA. GFS AND EURO ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT
IN EXACT LOCATION (EURO A BIT MORE SOUTH), BUT THE NET RESULT IS
THE SAME. LOTS OF CLOUDS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE -1 TO -4C RANGE,
THUS IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE HIGHER SUMMITS (ABOVE 2000FT)
TO SEE SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS. COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION OVER THE 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD AT THOSE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
NOTHING TO REALLY LATCH ONTO WITH REGARD TO IF THERE WILL BE A
PREFERRED TIME FOR SHOWERS VS PREFERRED TIME OF BRIEF DRY PERIODS.
AS SUCH, JUST PAINTED IN A LOT OF 30-50% POPS THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR THOUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO, WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR OR BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY IN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, TRENDING BACK TO VFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

A WEAK COLD FRONT PRODUCING THIN LINE OF SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS WILL
MOVE SOUTH FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NEXT 2 HOURS. WHILE A DRY
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED, ITS MOST NOTABLE EFFECT WILL BE A SHIFT TO
WEST- NORTHWEST/NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO AROUND 10 KTS BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BEHIND IT AS BRIEF SUBSIDENCE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

A MORE POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
IN INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN DIURNAL
HEATING, SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF LOWERED VISIBILITY.
SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CELLS GIVEN LOW
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS (AROUND 4 KFT AGL) AND RATHER STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHOWERS TO END WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS BECOME SOUTH UNDER 10 KTS IN THE MORNING, BUT
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST AND GUSTY (UP TO 25-28 KTS) IN STRONG
AFTERNOON MIXING.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z - 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ANY LEFTOVER AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DISSIPATE EARLY. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM
NOON THROUGH 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WESTERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE NOT PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR EASTERN RUTLAND COUNTY DUE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AROUND 30 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. FUELS ARE DRY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. THE CONDITIONS ARE RATHER MARGINAL
THAT RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED ON SATURDAY...SO
WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON THIS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ011-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...LOCONTO/NASH
FIRE WEATHER...WGH



000
FXUS61 KBTV 172350
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
750 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY. RATHER
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 750 PM EDT FRIDAY...QUIET UNEVENTFUL NIGHT ON TAP TONIGHT
UNDER CLR/PC SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO
AROUND 40. ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/WIND
SHIFT LINE SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA IN THE 8-10 PM TIME
FRAME. LITTLE FANFARE WITH THIS FEATURE OTHER THAN SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER AND A LIGHT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BTV/HRRR OUTPUT SEEMINGLY BULLISH ON SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF A
BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS NORTHERN
COUNTIES THIS EVENING BUT FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE. KCXX RADAR DOES
APPEAR TO BE SHOWING SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTH
OF THE INTL BORDER FROM MONTREAL EAST, BUT CANADIAN OBSERVATIONS
REMAIN PCPN-FREE AND WITH SUCH DRY LOWER LEVELS FEEL THAT ANYTHING
THAT WOULD FALL OUT OF THE SKY WOULD BE MINIMAL AT BEST. BEST SHOT
AT A SPRINKLE WOULD BE THROUGH 10 PM ACROSS THE FAR NRN VT MTNS
OTHERWISE DRY WX EXPECTED. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODELS SHOWING A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. HAVE PUT IN A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...EXCEPT HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT ON SATURDAY. GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHEAST VERMONT
MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY GIVEN FULL SUN...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF
THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. GFS MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT TOO COLD FOR
MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER END OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS MIN GUIDANCE.

ECMWF...GFS AND NAM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SLOWING DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS INTO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. HAVE
JUST SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE ALSO GONE WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...OVERALL THOUGHTS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK
HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH THIS REFRESH OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. 12Z
GUIDANCE STILL SIMILAR WITH ONE ANOTHER AND RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS
RUNS AND INDICATING A RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOLISH WEEK COMING
UP. MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BE COMING THROUGH MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY, AND WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL (PERHAPS 1" IN PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS) AND
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS).  DAILY DETAILS ARE BELOW...

MONDAY:
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTRY WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PUSHING FAIRLY QUICKLY
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS LOW REACHES OUR
LATITUDE, A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW-MID LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND HELPS
TO TRANSPORT A PRETTY DEEP RIVER OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THIS MOISTURE HAS BOTH GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
ORIGINS, AND AS A RESULT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
APPROACHING 1" (WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). AT
THE SAME TIME, THE 0.5 TO 1KM WINDS STRENGTHEN INTO THE 45-55KT
RANGE. GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AND INDICATIONS OF AN
INVERSION AROUND MOUNTAIN SUMMIT LEVEL, THIS INDICATES TO ME THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SOME OF THOSE STRONG WINDS TO GET FUNNELED BETWEEN
THOSE SUMMITS AND INVERSION AND RESULT IN SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. TRIED TO BEEF UP THE
WIND GUSTS TO SHOW SOME GUSTS OF 40-50MPH. ON THE RAINFALL ASPECT,
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG JET SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS COULD BE PRETTY STRONG - PERHAPS AN 1" OR SO ON THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS AND PERHAPS THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE `DACKS, HOWEVER SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD KEEP QPF LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND
SHADOWING FROM THE GREENS WILL KEEP THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION A
BIT DRIER. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME SHARP RISES ON SOME RIVERS.
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE LATER GUIDANCE TO SEE IF THERE WILL BE ANY
SORT OF FLOOD THREAT. ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT, STUCK CLOSE TO A
GUIDANCE MIX. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP IT ON THE COOL SIDE (50S)
WITH 40S AT NIGHT. IN SUMMARY -- ONE OF THOSE RAW/WET DAYS.

TUESDAY: LOOKS LIKE A SMALL SECONDARY LOW WILL PASS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. AS IT DOES SO, RAIN SHOULD START COMING TO AN
END. MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON - ESPECIALLY THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, BUT OTHERWISE LOTS OF CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN
ON THE COOLER SIDE COMPARED TO NORMAL - MORE 50S.

WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY & FRIDAY: NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE FROM DAY TO DAY.
LOOKS LIKE WE`LL SEE A BIG BOWLING BALL CUT-OFF LOW SET UP
SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN CANADA. GFS AND EURO ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT
IN EXACT LOCATION (EURO A BIT MORE SOUTH), BUT THE NET RESULT IS
THE SAME. LOTS OF CLOUDS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE -1 TO -4C RANGE,
THUS IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE HIGHER SUMMITS (ABOVE 2000FT)
TO SEE SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS. COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION OVER THE 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD AT THOSE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
NOTHING TO REALLY LATCH ONTO WITH REGARD TO IF THERE WILL BE A
PREFERRED TIME FOR SHOWERS VS PREFERRED TIME OF BRIEF DRY PERIODS.
AS SUCH, JUST PAINTED IN A LOT OF 30-50% POPS THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR THOUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO, WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR OR BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY IN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, TRENDING BACK TO VFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

A WEAK COLD FRONT PRODUCING THIN LINE OF SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS WILL
MOVE SOUTH FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NEXT 2 HOURS. WHILE A DRY
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED, ITS MOST NOTABLE EFFECT WILL BE A SHIFT TO
WEST- NORTHWEST/NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO AROUND 10 KTS BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BEHIND IT AS BRIEF SUBSIDENCE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

A MORE POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
IN INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN DIURNAL
HEATING, SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF LOWERED VISIBILITY.
SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CELLS GIVEN LOW
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS (AROUND 4 KFT AGL) AND RATHER STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHOWERS TO END WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS BECOME SOUTH UNDER 10 KTS IN THE MORNING, BUT
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST AND GUSTY (UP TO 25-28 KTS) IN STRONG
AFTERNOON MIXING.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z - 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ANY LEFTOVER AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DISSIPATE EARLY. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM
NOON THROUGH 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WESTERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE NOT PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR EASTERN RUTLAND COUNTY DUE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AROUND 30 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. FUELS ARE DRY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. THE CONDITIONS ARE RATHER MARGINAL
THAT RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED ON SATURDAY...SO
WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON THIS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ011-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...LOCONTO/NASH
FIRE WEATHER...WGH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 172342
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
742 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY. RATHER
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH FROM CANADA
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODELS SHOWING A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. HAVE PUT IN A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...EXCEPT HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT ON SATURDAY. GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHEAST VERMONT
MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY GIVEN FULL SUN...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF
THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. GFS MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT TOO COLD FOR
MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER END OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS MIN GUIDANCE.

ECMWF...GFS AND NAM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SLOWING DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS INTO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. HAVE
JUST SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE ALSO GONE WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...OVERALL THOUGHTS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK
HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH THIS REFRESH OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. 12Z
GUIDANCE STILL SIMILAR WITH ONE ANOTHER AND RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS
RUNS AND INDICATING A RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOLISH WEEK COMING
UP. MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BE COMING THROUGH MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY, AND WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL (PERHAPS 1" IN PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS) AND
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS).  DAILY DETAILS ARE BELOW...

MONDAY:
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTRY WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PUSHING FAIRLY QUICKLY
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS LOW REACHES OUR
LATITUDE, A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW-MID LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND HELPS
TO TRANSPORT A PRETTY DEEP RIVER OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THIS MOISTURE HAS BOTH GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
ORIGINS, AND AS A RESULT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
APPROACHING 1" (WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). AT
THE SAME TIME, THE 0.5 TO 1KM WINDS STRENGTHEN INTO THE 45-55KT
RANGE. GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AND INDICATIONS OF AN
INVERSION AROUND MOUNTAIN SUMMIT LEVEL, THIS INDICATES TO ME THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SOME OF THOSE STRONG WINDS TO GET FUNNELED BETWEEN
THOSE SUMMITS AND INVERSION AND RESULT IN SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. TRIED TO BEEF UP THE
WIND GUSTS TO SHOW SOME GUSTS OF 40-50MPH. ON THE RAINFALL ASPECT,
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG JET SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS COULD BE PRETTY STRONG - PERHAPS AN 1" OR SO ON THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS AND PERHAPS THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE `DACKS, HOWEVER SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD KEEP QPF LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND
SHADOWING FROM THE GREENS WILL KEEP THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION A
BIT DRIER. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME SHARP RISES ON SOME RIVERS.
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE LATER GUIDANCE TO SEE IF THERE WILL BE ANY
SORT OF FLOOD THREAT. ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT, STUCK CLOSE TO A
GUIDANCE MIX. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP IT ON THE COOL SIDE (50S)
WITH 40S AT NIGHT. IN SUMMARY -- ONE OF THOSE RAW/WET DAYS.

TUESDAY: LOOKS LIKE A SMALL SECONDARY LOW WILL PASS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. AS IT DOES SO, RAIN SHOULD START COMING TO AN
END. MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON - ESPECIALLY THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, BUT OTHERWISE LOTS OF CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN
ON THE COOLER SIDE COMPARED TO NORMAL - MORE 50S.

WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY & FRIDAY: NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE FROM DAY TO DAY.
LOOKS LIKE WE`LL SEE A BIG BOWLING BALL CUT-OFF LOW SET UP
SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN CANADA. GFS AND EURO ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT
IN EXACT LOCATION (EURO A BIT MORE SOUTH), BUT THE NET RESULT IS
THE SAME. LOTS OF CLOUDS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE -1 TO -4C RANGE,
THUS IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE HIGHER SUMMITS (ABOVE 2000FT)
TO SEE SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS. COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION OVER THE 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD AT THOSE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
NOTHING TO REALLY LATCH ONTO WITH REGARD TO IF THERE WILL BE A
PREFERRED TIME FOR SHOWERS VS PREFERRED TIME OF BRIEF DRY PERIODS.
AS SUCH, JUST PAINTED IN A LOT OF 30-50% POPS THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR THOUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO, WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR OR BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY IN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, TRENDING BACK TO VFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

A WEAK COLD FRONT PRODUCING THIN LINE OF SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS WILL
MOVE SOUTH FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NEXT 2 HOURS. WHILE A DRY
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED, ITS MOST NOTABLE EFFECT WILL BE A SHIFT TO
WEST- NORTHWEST/NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO AROUND 10 KTS BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BEHIND IT AS BRIEF SUBSIDENCE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

A MORE POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
IN INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN DIURNAL
HEATING, SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF LOWERED VISIBILITY.
SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CELLS GIVEN LOW
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS (AROUND 4 KFT AGL) AND RATHER STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHOWERS TO END WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS BECOME SOUTH UNDER 10 KTS IN THE MORNING, BUT
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST AND GUSTY (UP TO 25-28 KTS) IN STRONG
AFTERNOON MIXING.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z - 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ANY LEFTOVER AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DISSIPATE EARLY. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM
NOON THROUGH 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WESTERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE NOT PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR EASTERN RUTLAND COUNTY DUE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AROUND 30 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. FUELS ARE DRY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. THE CONDITIONS ARE RATHER MARGINAL
THAT RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED ON SATURDAY...SO
WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON THIS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ011-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...LOCONTO/NASH
FIRE WEATHER...WGH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 172342
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
742 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY. RATHER
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH FROM CANADA
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODELS SHOWING A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. HAVE PUT IN A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...EXCEPT HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT ON SATURDAY. GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHEAST VERMONT
MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY GIVEN FULL SUN...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF
THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. GFS MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT TOO COLD FOR
MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER END OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS MIN GUIDANCE.

ECMWF...GFS AND NAM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SLOWING DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS INTO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. HAVE
JUST SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE ALSO GONE WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...OVERALL THOUGHTS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK
HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH THIS REFRESH OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. 12Z
GUIDANCE STILL SIMILAR WITH ONE ANOTHER AND RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS
RUNS AND INDICATING A RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOLISH WEEK COMING
UP. MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BE COMING THROUGH MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY, AND WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL (PERHAPS 1" IN PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS) AND
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS).  DAILY DETAILS ARE BELOW...

MONDAY:
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTRY WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PUSHING FAIRLY QUICKLY
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS LOW REACHES OUR
LATITUDE, A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW-MID LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND HELPS
TO TRANSPORT A PRETTY DEEP RIVER OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THIS MOISTURE HAS BOTH GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
ORIGINS, AND AS A RESULT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
APPROACHING 1" (WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). AT
THE SAME TIME, THE 0.5 TO 1KM WINDS STRENGTHEN INTO THE 45-55KT
RANGE. GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AND INDICATIONS OF AN
INVERSION AROUND MOUNTAIN SUMMIT LEVEL, THIS INDICATES TO ME THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SOME OF THOSE STRONG WINDS TO GET FUNNELED BETWEEN
THOSE SUMMITS AND INVERSION AND RESULT IN SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. TRIED TO BEEF UP THE
WIND GUSTS TO SHOW SOME GUSTS OF 40-50MPH. ON THE RAINFALL ASPECT,
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG JET SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS COULD BE PRETTY STRONG - PERHAPS AN 1" OR SO ON THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS AND PERHAPS THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE `DACKS, HOWEVER SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD KEEP QPF LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND
SHADOWING FROM THE GREENS WILL KEEP THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION A
BIT DRIER. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME SHARP RISES ON SOME RIVERS.
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE LATER GUIDANCE TO SEE IF THERE WILL BE ANY
SORT OF FLOOD THREAT. ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT, STUCK CLOSE TO A
GUIDANCE MIX. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP IT ON THE COOL SIDE (50S)
WITH 40S AT NIGHT. IN SUMMARY -- ONE OF THOSE RAW/WET DAYS.

TUESDAY: LOOKS LIKE A SMALL SECONDARY LOW WILL PASS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. AS IT DOES SO, RAIN SHOULD START COMING TO AN
END. MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON - ESPECIALLY THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, BUT OTHERWISE LOTS OF CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN
ON THE COOLER SIDE COMPARED TO NORMAL - MORE 50S.

WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY & FRIDAY: NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE FROM DAY TO DAY.
LOOKS LIKE WE`LL SEE A BIG BOWLING BALL CUT-OFF LOW SET UP
SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN CANADA. GFS AND EURO ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT
IN EXACT LOCATION (EURO A BIT MORE SOUTH), BUT THE NET RESULT IS
THE SAME. LOTS OF CLOUDS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE -1 TO -4C RANGE,
THUS IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE HIGHER SUMMITS (ABOVE 2000FT)
TO SEE SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS. COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION OVER THE 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD AT THOSE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
NOTHING TO REALLY LATCH ONTO WITH REGARD TO IF THERE WILL BE A
PREFERRED TIME FOR SHOWERS VS PREFERRED TIME OF BRIEF DRY PERIODS.
AS SUCH, JUST PAINTED IN A LOT OF 30-50% POPS THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR THOUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO, WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR OR BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY IN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, TRENDING BACK TO VFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

A WEAK COLD FRONT PRODUCING THIN LINE OF SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS WILL
MOVE SOUTH FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NEXT 2 HOURS. WHILE A DRY
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED, ITS MOST NOTABLE EFFECT WILL BE A SHIFT TO
WEST- NORTHWEST/NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO AROUND 10 KTS BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BEHIND IT AS BRIEF SUBSIDENCE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

A MORE POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
IN INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN DIURNAL
HEATING, SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF LOWERED VISIBILITY.
SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CELLS GIVEN LOW
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS (AROUND 4 KFT AGL) AND RATHER STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHOWERS TO END WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS BECOME SOUTH UNDER 10 KTS IN THE MORNING, BUT
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST AND GUSTY (UP TO 25-28 KTS) IN STRONG
AFTERNOON MIXING.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z - 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ANY LEFTOVER AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DISSIPATE EARLY. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM
NOON THROUGH 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WESTERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE NOT PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR EASTERN RUTLAND COUNTY DUE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AROUND 30 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. FUELS ARE DRY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. THE CONDITIONS ARE RATHER MARGINAL
THAT RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED ON SATURDAY...SO
WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON THIS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ011-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...LOCONTO/NASH
FIRE WEATHER...WGH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 172342
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
742 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY. RATHER
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH FROM CANADA
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODELS SHOWING A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. HAVE PUT IN A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...EXCEPT HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT ON SATURDAY. GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHEAST VERMONT
MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY GIVEN FULL SUN...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF
THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. GFS MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT TOO COLD FOR
MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER END OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS MIN GUIDANCE.

ECMWF...GFS AND NAM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SLOWING DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS INTO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. HAVE
JUST SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE ALSO GONE WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...OVERALL THOUGHTS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK
HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH THIS REFRESH OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. 12Z
GUIDANCE STILL SIMILAR WITH ONE ANOTHER AND RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS
RUNS AND INDICATING A RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOLISH WEEK COMING
UP. MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BE COMING THROUGH MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY, AND WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL (PERHAPS 1" IN PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS) AND
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS).  DAILY DETAILS ARE BELOW...

MONDAY:
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTRY WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PUSHING FAIRLY QUICKLY
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS LOW REACHES OUR
LATITUDE, A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW-MID LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND HELPS
TO TRANSPORT A PRETTY DEEP RIVER OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THIS MOISTURE HAS BOTH GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
ORIGINS, AND AS A RESULT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
APPROACHING 1" (WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). AT
THE SAME TIME, THE 0.5 TO 1KM WINDS STRENGTHEN INTO THE 45-55KT
RANGE. GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AND INDICATIONS OF AN
INVERSION AROUND MOUNTAIN SUMMIT LEVEL, THIS INDICATES TO ME THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SOME OF THOSE STRONG WINDS TO GET FUNNELED BETWEEN
THOSE SUMMITS AND INVERSION AND RESULT IN SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. TRIED TO BEEF UP THE
WIND GUSTS TO SHOW SOME GUSTS OF 40-50MPH. ON THE RAINFALL ASPECT,
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG JET SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS COULD BE PRETTY STRONG - PERHAPS AN 1" OR SO ON THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS AND PERHAPS THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE `DACKS, HOWEVER SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD KEEP QPF LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND
SHADOWING FROM THE GREENS WILL KEEP THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION A
BIT DRIER. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME SHARP RISES ON SOME RIVERS.
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE LATER GUIDANCE TO SEE IF THERE WILL BE ANY
SORT OF FLOOD THREAT. ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT, STUCK CLOSE TO A
GUIDANCE MIX. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP IT ON THE COOL SIDE (50S)
WITH 40S AT NIGHT. IN SUMMARY -- ONE OF THOSE RAW/WET DAYS.

TUESDAY: LOOKS LIKE A SMALL SECONDARY LOW WILL PASS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. AS IT DOES SO, RAIN SHOULD START COMING TO AN
END. MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON - ESPECIALLY THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, BUT OTHERWISE LOTS OF CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN
ON THE COOLER SIDE COMPARED TO NORMAL - MORE 50S.

WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY & FRIDAY: NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE FROM DAY TO DAY.
LOOKS LIKE WE`LL SEE A BIG BOWLING BALL CUT-OFF LOW SET UP
SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN CANADA. GFS AND EURO ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT
IN EXACT LOCATION (EURO A BIT MORE SOUTH), BUT THE NET RESULT IS
THE SAME. LOTS OF CLOUDS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE -1 TO -4C RANGE,
THUS IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE HIGHER SUMMITS (ABOVE 2000FT)
TO SEE SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS. COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION OVER THE 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD AT THOSE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
NOTHING TO REALLY LATCH ONTO WITH REGARD TO IF THERE WILL BE A
PREFERRED TIME FOR SHOWERS VS PREFERRED TIME OF BRIEF DRY PERIODS.
AS SUCH, JUST PAINTED IN A LOT OF 30-50% POPS THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR THOUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO, WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR OR BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY IN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, TRENDING BACK TO VFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

A WEAK COLD FRONT PRODUCING THIN LINE OF SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS WILL
MOVE SOUTH FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NEXT 2 HOURS. WHILE A DRY
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED, ITS MOST NOTABLE EFFECT WILL BE A SHIFT TO
WEST- NORTHWEST/NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO AROUND 10 KTS BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BEHIND IT AS BRIEF SUBSIDENCE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

A MORE POTENT UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
IN INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN DIURNAL
HEATING, SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF LOWERED VISIBILITY.
SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CELLS GIVEN LOW
WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS (AROUND 4 KFT AGL) AND RATHER STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHOWERS TO END WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS BECOME SOUTH UNDER 10 KTS IN THE MORNING, BUT
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST AND GUSTY (UP TO 25-28 KTS) IN STRONG
AFTERNOON MIXING.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z - 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ANY LEFTOVER AFTERNOON SHOWERS
DISSIPATE EARLY. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM
NOON THROUGH 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WESTERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE NOT PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR EASTERN RUTLAND COUNTY DUE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AROUND 30 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. FUELS ARE DRY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. THE CONDITIONS ARE RATHER MARGINAL
THAT RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED ON SATURDAY...SO
WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON THIS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ011-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...LOCONTO/NASH
FIRE WEATHER...WGH



000
FXUS61 KALY 172314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION AND THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND IT
WILL BECOME WINDY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR...DRY...AND LESS
WINDY WEATHER.  WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS ARE EXITING AND WINDS ARE DIMINISHING. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND TRENDS SUPPORT CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT...SO JUST
VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST IF ANY. MORE DETAILS IN THE
PREVIOUS AFD BELOW...

LOOKING UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BE
QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND W/SW QUEBEC BTWN
06Z-12Z/SAT. THE CLIPPER TYPE LOWS AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES
BY DAYBREAK. SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE NRN MOST
ZONES WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR MOST OF THE REGION CLEAR OR MOSTLY
CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M40S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND BERKSHIRES SOUTH...AND MAINLY M30S
TO AROUND 40F TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2 PM...AND LOCATIONS SOUTH
BETWEEN 2 PM AND 5 PM. THIS BOUNDARY IS MOISTURE STARVED...AND
ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE INCLUDED IN THE FCST FOR THE SRN
DACKS...NRN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND SRN VT.

THE BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND IN ITS WAKE AS BETTER MIXING OCCURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME WIND
GUSTS IN THE 30-39 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE IF WE MIX FROM 5-8
KFT AGL. IF WIDESPREAD 40 KT GUST VALUES ARE POSSIBLE...THEN A
WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER. WE ARE EXPECTING WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH. SOME OF THESE STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE ACROSS
THE NRN CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...HELDERBERGS...CAPITAL
REGION...AND THE N-CNTRL TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES. MIXING OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT...WILL ALLOW DEWPTS TO LOWER INTO THE 20S TO M30S
IN THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE MIN RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THE LACK OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 5
DAYS...RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS...AND WIND GUSTS
OF 25 MPH OR GREATER WITH COORDINATION WITH OUR FIRE WX
USERS...NEIGHBORING WFOS /BGM...BTV...OKX...BOX...GYX...AND BUF/ AND
SPC HAS WARRANTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON TO 8 PM TOMORROW.
THE FIRE WX WATCH WAS LEFT OUT OF WRN WINDHAM CTY DUE THE
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE SNOW PACK AND COLLAB WITH USERS. PORTIONS OF
THE SRN DACKS HAVE SNOW PACK...AND PARTS DO NOT...BUT BASED ON
FIRE CONTACT INPUT AND CONSISTENCY FROM THE MID WEEK THEY HAVE
BEEN KEPT IN THE FIRE WX WATCH FOR NOW. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WX
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

ALSO...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE ISSUED FOR CERTAIN
LOCATIONS IF FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL TOMORROW BASED ON
NEW INPUT FROM SOME OF THE USERS AND COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON /SRN VT/.

MAX TEMPS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING EFFECTS
WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
M70S NEAR KPOU...AND U50S TO M60S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AND THE
WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE NW WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE.

SAT NIGHT...H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO -4C FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...NRN BERKSHIRES AND HELDERBERGS NORTH...AND 0C TO -3C TO
THE SOUTH WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  THE
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH A COLD
CANADIAN SFC HIGH RIDGING S/SE FROM WRN QUEBEC. THE SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...AND THE WINDS LIGHT TO CALM FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE M20S TO L30S OVER THE
MTNS...AND PARTS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND MID TO U30S IN
THE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...A NICE CLOSE TO THE WEEKEND WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND. LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING.
LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW H850 TEMPS TO RISE TO
+2C TO +4C. THE MIXING DEPTHS WILL BE NO WHERE NEAR AS HIGH AS
SAT. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE AND PLEASANT WITH U50S TO L60S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER THE MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IMPACTING THE
LOWER 48. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A SECONDARY LOW FORMING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THE TIMING STILL VARIES ON THE ONSET OF THE RAIN AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT BASED ON THE NWP GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS DOWN STREAM...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES BTWN 06Z-12Z FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO START MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST BEFORE DAYBREAK.
CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED BTWN 09Z-12Z/MON. A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A 500HPA CUTOFF WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS
AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS
BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

THE FIRST AND STRONGEST SHORT WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
EARLY ON MONDAY WITH A STEADY SOAKING RAIN EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST CATEGORICAL POPS (80-90 PERCENT) DURING THIS TIME
WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. ON TUESDAY
THIS LOW WILL STILL BE AFFECTING THE REGION AS THE STEADY RAIN LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD...BUT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.

AFTER THIS FIRST SYSTEM MOVES OUT...TIMING OF THE NEXT MUCH WEAKER
SYSTEMS WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT. HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST 20 TO 40
PERCENT POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
IT WILL ALSO BE COOLER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SNOW SHOWERS ALSO
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURE WISE...MONDAY WILL BE A RAW DAY WITH A STEADY RAIN AND
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S. COOLER AFTER THAT WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT
(MAINLY P6SM SKC FOR TONIGHT). ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 15Z AND 17Z. LITTLE WEATHER IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD AND HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
AT 00Z SUNDAY.

SURFACE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN
BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR GUSTY WINDS...VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES IS IN EFFECT FROM 12PM TO 8PM
SATURDAY FOR EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT AND BENNINGTON AND EASTERN
WINDHAM COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED IN COORDINATION WITH THE NEW YORK
STATE DEC FOREST RANGERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...VERMONT
DEPARTMENT OF FORESTS...PARKS AND RECREATION...MASSACHUSETTS
DEPARTMENT OF CONSERVATION AND RECREATION...CONNECTICUT DEEP
DIVISION OF FORESTRY AND SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES.

TONIGHT...RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 80-100 PERCENT WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 5 MPH...EXCEPT FOR WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5-10 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SHIFTING THE
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...VERY DRY AIR WILL BE
IN ITS WAKE...WITH RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER
20S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BETWEEN 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 5000-8000 FEET
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 70S. IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT RED FLAG
CRITERIA WILL BE MET...A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS DAYTIME HEATING ENDS LATE SATURDAY
EVENING...POTENTIAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL END AS WINDS SUBSIDE TO
5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN
60-80 PERCENT...WITH 80-100 PERCENT RECOVERY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE RH VALUES GENERALLY 30-45 PERCENT WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAINFALL IS LIKELY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WITH
VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRNDACKS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VERMONT...BUT ONLY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HUNDREDTH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MOSTLY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A STORM
SYSTEM WILL A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TOWARDS DAY BREAK ON
MONDAY.

THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
INDICATES THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN
THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEASTERN
BERKSHIRE COUNTY. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS STILL
HAVE 4 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT.

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL AT
THIS TIME WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR VTZ013-015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA/NAS
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IRL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 172314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION AND THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND IT
WILL BECOME WINDY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR...DRY...AND LESS
WINDY WEATHER.  WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS ARE EXITING AND WINDS ARE DIMINISHING. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND TRENDS SUPPORT CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT...SO JUST
VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST IF ANY. MORE DETAILS IN THE
PREVIOUS AFD BELOW...

LOOKING UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BE
QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND W/SW QUEBEC BTWN
06Z-12Z/SAT. THE CLIPPER TYPE LOWS AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES
BY DAYBREAK. SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE NRN MOST
ZONES WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR MOST OF THE REGION CLEAR OR MOSTLY
CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M40S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND BERKSHIRES SOUTH...AND MAINLY M30S
TO AROUND 40F TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2 PM...AND LOCATIONS SOUTH
BETWEEN 2 PM AND 5 PM. THIS BOUNDARY IS MOISTURE STARVED...AND
ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE INCLUDED IN THE FCST FOR THE SRN
DACKS...NRN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND SRN VT.

THE BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND IN ITS WAKE AS BETTER MIXING OCCURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME WIND
GUSTS IN THE 30-39 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE IF WE MIX FROM 5-8
KFT AGL. IF WIDESPREAD 40 KT GUST VALUES ARE POSSIBLE...THEN A
WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER. WE ARE EXPECTING WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH. SOME OF THESE STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE ACROSS
THE NRN CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...HELDERBERGS...CAPITAL
REGION...AND THE N-CNTRL TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES. MIXING OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT...WILL ALLOW DEWPTS TO LOWER INTO THE 20S TO M30S
IN THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE MIN RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THE LACK OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 5
DAYS...RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS...AND WIND GUSTS
OF 25 MPH OR GREATER WITH COORDINATION WITH OUR FIRE WX
USERS...NEIGHBORING WFOS /BGM...BTV...OKX...BOX...GYX...AND BUF/ AND
SPC HAS WARRANTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON TO 8 PM TOMORROW.
THE FIRE WX WATCH WAS LEFT OUT OF WRN WINDHAM CTY DUE THE
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE SNOW PACK AND COLLAB WITH USERS. PORTIONS OF
THE SRN DACKS HAVE SNOW PACK...AND PARTS DO NOT...BUT BASED ON
FIRE CONTACT INPUT AND CONSISTENCY FROM THE MID WEEK THEY HAVE
BEEN KEPT IN THE FIRE WX WATCH FOR NOW. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WX
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

ALSO...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE ISSUED FOR CERTAIN
LOCATIONS IF FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL TOMORROW BASED ON
NEW INPUT FROM SOME OF THE USERS AND COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON /SRN VT/.

MAX TEMPS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING EFFECTS
WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
M70S NEAR KPOU...AND U50S TO M60S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AND THE
WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE NW WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE.

SAT NIGHT...H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO -4C FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...NRN BERKSHIRES AND HELDERBERGS NORTH...AND 0C TO -3C TO
THE SOUTH WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  THE
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH A COLD
CANADIAN SFC HIGH RIDGING S/SE FROM WRN QUEBEC. THE SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...AND THE WINDS LIGHT TO CALM FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE M20S TO L30S OVER THE
MTNS...AND PARTS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND MID TO U30S IN
THE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...A NICE CLOSE TO THE WEEKEND WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND. LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING.
LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW H850 TEMPS TO RISE TO
+2C TO +4C. THE MIXING DEPTHS WILL BE NO WHERE NEAR AS HIGH AS
SAT. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE AND PLEASANT WITH U50S TO L60S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER THE MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IMPACTING THE
LOWER 48. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A SECONDARY LOW FORMING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THE TIMING STILL VARIES ON THE ONSET OF THE RAIN AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT BASED ON THE NWP GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS DOWN STREAM...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES BTWN 06Z-12Z FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO START MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST BEFORE DAYBREAK.
CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED BTWN 09Z-12Z/MON. A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A 500HPA CUTOFF WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS
AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS
BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

THE FIRST AND STRONGEST SHORT WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
EARLY ON MONDAY WITH A STEADY SOAKING RAIN EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST CATEGORICAL POPS (80-90 PERCENT) DURING THIS TIME
WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. ON TUESDAY
THIS LOW WILL STILL BE AFFECTING THE REGION AS THE STEADY RAIN LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD...BUT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.

AFTER THIS FIRST SYSTEM MOVES OUT...TIMING OF THE NEXT MUCH WEAKER
SYSTEMS WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT. HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST 20 TO 40
PERCENT POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
IT WILL ALSO BE COOLER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SNOW SHOWERS ALSO
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURE WISE...MONDAY WILL BE A RAW DAY WITH A STEADY RAIN AND
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S. COOLER AFTER THAT WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT
(MAINLY P6SM SKC FOR TONIGHT). ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 15Z AND 17Z. LITTLE WEATHER IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD AND HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
AT 00Z SUNDAY.

SURFACE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN
BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR GUSTY WINDS...VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES IS IN EFFECT FROM 12PM TO 8PM
SATURDAY FOR EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT AND BENNINGTON AND EASTERN
WINDHAM COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED IN COORDINATION WITH THE NEW YORK
STATE DEC FOREST RANGERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...VERMONT
DEPARTMENT OF FORESTS...PARKS AND RECREATION...MASSACHUSETTS
DEPARTMENT OF CONSERVATION AND RECREATION...CONNECTICUT DEEP
DIVISION OF FORESTRY AND SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES.

TONIGHT...RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 80-100 PERCENT WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 5 MPH...EXCEPT FOR WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5-10 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SHIFTING THE
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...VERY DRY AIR WILL BE
IN ITS WAKE...WITH RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER
20S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BETWEEN 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 5000-8000 FEET
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 70S. IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT RED FLAG
CRITERIA WILL BE MET...A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS DAYTIME HEATING ENDS LATE SATURDAY
EVENING...POTENTIAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL END AS WINDS SUBSIDE TO
5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN
60-80 PERCENT...WITH 80-100 PERCENT RECOVERY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE RH VALUES GENERALLY 30-45 PERCENT WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAINFALL IS LIKELY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WITH
VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRNDACKS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VERMONT...BUT ONLY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HUNDREDTH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MOSTLY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A STORM
SYSTEM WILL A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TOWARDS DAY BREAK ON
MONDAY.

THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
INDICATES THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN
THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEASTERN
BERKSHIRE COUNTY. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS STILL
HAVE 4 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT.

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL AT
THIS TIME WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR VTZ013-015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA/NAS
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IRL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 172314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION AND THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND IT
WILL BECOME WINDY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR...DRY...AND LESS
WINDY WEATHER.  WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS ARE EXITING AND WINDS ARE DIMINISHING. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND TRENDS SUPPORT CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT...SO JUST
VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST IF ANY. MORE DETAILS IN THE
PREVIOUS AFD BELOW...

LOOKING UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BE
QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND W/SW QUEBEC BTWN
06Z-12Z/SAT. THE CLIPPER TYPE LOWS AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES
BY DAYBREAK. SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE NRN MOST
ZONES WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR MOST OF THE REGION CLEAR OR MOSTLY
CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M40S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND BERKSHIRES SOUTH...AND MAINLY M30S
TO AROUND 40F TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2 PM...AND LOCATIONS SOUTH
BETWEEN 2 PM AND 5 PM. THIS BOUNDARY IS MOISTURE STARVED...AND
ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE INCLUDED IN THE FCST FOR THE SRN
DACKS...NRN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND SRN VT.

THE BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND IN ITS WAKE AS BETTER MIXING OCCURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME WIND
GUSTS IN THE 30-39 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE IF WE MIX FROM 5-8
KFT AGL. IF WIDESPREAD 40 KT GUST VALUES ARE POSSIBLE...THEN A
WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER. WE ARE EXPECTING WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH. SOME OF THESE STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE ACROSS
THE NRN CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...HELDERBERGS...CAPITAL
REGION...AND THE N-CNTRL TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES. MIXING OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT...WILL ALLOW DEWPTS TO LOWER INTO THE 20S TO M30S
IN THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE MIN RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THE LACK OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 5
DAYS...RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS...AND WIND GUSTS
OF 25 MPH OR GREATER WITH COORDINATION WITH OUR FIRE WX
USERS...NEIGHBORING WFOS /BGM...BTV...OKX...BOX...GYX...AND BUF/ AND
SPC HAS WARRANTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON TO 8 PM TOMORROW.
THE FIRE WX WATCH WAS LEFT OUT OF WRN WINDHAM CTY DUE THE
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE SNOW PACK AND COLLAB WITH USERS. PORTIONS OF
THE SRN DACKS HAVE SNOW PACK...AND PARTS DO NOT...BUT BASED ON
FIRE CONTACT INPUT AND CONSISTENCY FROM THE MID WEEK THEY HAVE
BEEN KEPT IN THE FIRE WX WATCH FOR NOW. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WX
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

ALSO...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE ISSUED FOR CERTAIN
LOCATIONS IF FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL TOMORROW BASED ON
NEW INPUT FROM SOME OF THE USERS AND COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON /SRN VT/.

MAX TEMPS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING EFFECTS
WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
M70S NEAR KPOU...AND U50S TO M60S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AND THE
WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE NW WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE.

SAT NIGHT...H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO -4C FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...NRN BERKSHIRES AND HELDERBERGS NORTH...AND 0C TO -3C TO
THE SOUTH WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  THE
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH A COLD
CANADIAN SFC HIGH RIDGING S/SE FROM WRN QUEBEC. THE SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...AND THE WINDS LIGHT TO CALM FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE M20S TO L30S OVER THE
MTNS...AND PARTS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND MID TO U30S IN
THE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...A NICE CLOSE TO THE WEEKEND WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND. LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING.
LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW H850 TEMPS TO RISE TO
+2C TO +4C. THE MIXING DEPTHS WILL BE NO WHERE NEAR AS HIGH AS
SAT. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE AND PLEASANT WITH U50S TO L60S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER THE MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IMPACTING THE
LOWER 48. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A SECONDARY LOW FORMING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THE TIMING STILL VARIES ON THE ONSET OF THE RAIN AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT BASED ON THE NWP GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS DOWN STREAM...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES BTWN 06Z-12Z FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO START MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST BEFORE DAYBREAK.
CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED BTWN 09Z-12Z/MON. A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A 500HPA CUTOFF WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS
AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS
BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

THE FIRST AND STRONGEST SHORT WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
EARLY ON MONDAY WITH A STEADY SOAKING RAIN EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST CATEGORICAL POPS (80-90 PERCENT) DURING THIS TIME
WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. ON TUESDAY
THIS LOW WILL STILL BE AFFECTING THE REGION AS THE STEADY RAIN LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD...BUT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.

AFTER THIS FIRST SYSTEM MOVES OUT...TIMING OF THE NEXT MUCH WEAKER
SYSTEMS WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT. HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST 20 TO 40
PERCENT POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
IT WILL ALSO BE COOLER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SNOW SHOWERS ALSO
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURE WISE...MONDAY WILL BE A RAW DAY WITH A STEADY RAIN AND
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S. COOLER AFTER THAT WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT
(MAINLY P6SM SKC FOR TONIGHT). ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 15Z AND 17Z. LITTLE WEATHER IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD AND HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
AT 00Z SUNDAY.

SURFACE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN
BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR GUSTY WINDS...VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES IS IN EFFECT FROM 12PM TO 8PM
SATURDAY FOR EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT AND BENNINGTON AND EASTERN
WINDHAM COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED IN COORDINATION WITH THE NEW YORK
STATE DEC FOREST RANGERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...VERMONT
DEPARTMENT OF FORESTS...PARKS AND RECREATION...MASSACHUSETTS
DEPARTMENT OF CONSERVATION AND RECREATION...CONNECTICUT DEEP
DIVISION OF FORESTRY AND SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES.

TONIGHT...RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 80-100 PERCENT WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 5 MPH...EXCEPT FOR WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5-10 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SHIFTING THE
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...VERY DRY AIR WILL BE
IN ITS WAKE...WITH RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER
20S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BETWEEN 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 5000-8000 FEET
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 70S. IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT RED FLAG
CRITERIA WILL BE MET...A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS DAYTIME HEATING ENDS LATE SATURDAY
EVENING...POTENTIAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL END AS WINDS SUBSIDE TO
5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN
60-80 PERCENT...WITH 80-100 PERCENT RECOVERY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE RH VALUES GENERALLY 30-45 PERCENT WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAINFALL IS LIKELY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WITH
VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRNDACKS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VERMONT...BUT ONLY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HUNDREDTH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MOSTLY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A STORM
SYSTEM WILL A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TOWARDS DAY BREAK ON
MONDAY.

THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
INDICATES THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN
THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEASTERN
BERKSHIRE COUNTY. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS STILL
HAVE 4 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT.

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL AT
THIS TIME WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR VTZ013-015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA/NAS
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IRL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 172314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION AND THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND IT
WILL BECOME WINDY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR...DRY...AND LESS
WINDY WEATHER.  WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS ARE EXITING AND WINDS ARE DIMINISHING. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND TRENDS SUPPORT CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT...SO JUST
VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST IF ANY. MORE DETAILS IN THE
PREVIOUS AFD BELOW...

LOOKING UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BE
QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND W/SW QUEBEC BTWN
06Z-12Z/SAT. THE CLIPPER TYPE LOWS AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES
BY DAYBREAK. SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE NRN MOST
ZONES WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR MOST OF THE REGION CLEAR OR MOSTLY
CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M40S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND BERKSHIRES SOUTH...AND MAINLY M30S
TO AROUND 40F TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2 PM...AND LOCATIONS SOUTH
BETWEEN 2 PM AND 5 PM. THIS BOUNDARY IS MOISTURE STARVED...AND
ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE INCLUDED IN THE FCST FOR THE SRN
DACKS...NRN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND SRN VT.

THE BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND IN ITS WAKE AS BETTER MIXING OCCURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME WIND
GUSTS IN THE 30-39 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE IF WE MIX FROM 5-8
KFT AGL. IF WIDESPREAD 40 KT GUST VALUES ARE POSSIBLE...THEN A
WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER. WE ARE EXPECTING WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH. SOME OF THESE STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE ACROSS
THE NRN CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...HELDERBERGS...CAPITAL
REGION...AND THE N-CNTRL TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES. MIXING OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT...WILL ALLOW DEWPTS TO LOWER INTO THE 20S TO M30S
IN THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE MIN RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THE LACK OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 5
DAYS...RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS...AND WIND GUSTS
OF 25 MPH OR GREATER WITH COORDINATION WITH OUR FIRE WX
USERS...NEIGHBORING WFOS /BGM...BTV...OKX...BOX...GYX...AND BUF/ AND
SPC HAS WARRANTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON TO 8 PM TOMORROW.
THE FIRE WX WATCH WAS LEFT OUT OF WRN WINDHAM CTY DUE THE
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE SNOW PACK AND COLLAB WITH USERS. PORTIONS OF
THE SRN DACKS HAVE SNOW PACK...AND PARTS DO NOT...BUT BASED ON
FIRE CONTACT INPUT AND CONSISTENCY FROM THE MID WEEK THEY HAVE
BEEN KEPT IN THE FIRE WX WATCH FOR NOW. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WX
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

ALSO...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE ISSUED FOR CERTAIN
LOCATIONS IF FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL TOMORROW BASED ON
NEW INPUT FROM SOME OF THE USERS AND COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON /SRN VT/.

MAX TEMPS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING EFFECTS
WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
M70S NEAR KPOU...AND U50S TO M60S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AND THE
WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE NW WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE.

SAT NIGHT...H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO -4C FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...NRN BERKSHIRES AND HELDERBERGS NORTH...AND 0C TO -3C TO
THE SOUTH WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  THE
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH A COLD
CANADIAN SFC HIGH RIDGING S/SE FROM WRN QUEBEC. THE SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...AND THE WINDS LIGHT TO CALM FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE M20S TO L30S OVER THE
MTNS...AND PARTS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND MID TO U30S IN
THE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...A NICE CLOSE TO THE WEEKEND WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND. LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING.
LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW H850 TEMPS TO RISE TO
+2C TO +4C. THE MIXING DEPTHS WILL BE NO WHERE NEAR AS HIGH AS
SAT. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE AND PLEASANT WITH U50S TO L60S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER THE MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IMPACTING THE
LOWER 48. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A SECONDARY LOW FORMING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THE TIMING STILL VARIES ON THE ONSET OF THE RAIN AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT BASED ON THE NWP GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS DOWN STREAM...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES BTWN 06Z-12Z FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO START MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST BEFORE DAYBREAK.
CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED BTWN 09Z-12Z/MON. A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A 500HPA CUTOFF WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS
AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS
BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

THE FIRST AND STRONGEST SHORT WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
EARLY ON MONDAY WITH A STEADY SOAKING RAIN EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST CATEGORICAL POPS (80-90 PERCENT) DURING THIS TIME
WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. ON TUESDAY
THIS LOW WILL STILL BE AFFECTING THE REGION AS THE STEADY RAIN LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD...BUT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.

AFTER THIS FIRST SYSTEM MOVES OUT...TIMING OF THE NEXT MUCH WEAKER
SYSTEMS WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT. HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST 20 TO 40
PERCENT POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
IT WILL ALSO BE COOLER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SNOW SHOWERS ALSO
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURE WISE...MONDAY WILL BE A RAW DAY WITH A STEADY RAIN AND
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S. COOLER AFTER THAT WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT
(MAINLY P6SM SKC FOR TONIGHT). ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 15Z AND 17Z. LITTLE WEATHER IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD AND HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
AT 00Z SUNDAY.

SURFACE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN
BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR GUSTY WINDS...VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES IS IN EFFECT FROM 12PM TO 8PM
SATURDAY FOR EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT AND BENNINGTON AND EASTERN
WINDHAM COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED IN COORDINATION WITH THE NEW YORK
STATE DEC FOREST RANGERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...VERMONT
DEPARTMENT OF FORESTS...PARKS AND RECREATION...MASSACHUSETTS
DEPARTMENT OF CONSERVATION AND RECREATION...CONNECTICUT DEEP
DIVISION OF FORESTRY AND SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES.

TONIGHT...RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 80-100 PERCENT WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 5 MPH...EXCEPT FOR WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5-10 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SHIFTING THE
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...VERY DRY AIR WILL BE
IN ITS WAKE...WITH RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER
20S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BETWEEN 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 5000-8000 FEET
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 70S. IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT RED FLAG
CRITERIA WILL BE MET...A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS DAYTIME HEATING ENDS LATE SATURDAY
EVENING...POTENTIAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL END AS WINDS SUBSIDE TO
5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN
60-80 PERCENT...WITH 80-100 PERCENT RECOVERY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE RH VALUES GENERALLY 30-45 PERCENT WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAINFALL IS LIKELY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WITH
VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRNDACKS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VERMONT...BUT ONLY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HUNDREDTH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MOSTLY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A STORM
SYSTEM WILL A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TOWARDS DAY BREAK ON
MONDAY.

THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
INDICATES THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN
THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEASTERN
BERKSHIRE COUNTY. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS STILL
HAVE 4 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT.

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL AT
THIS TIME WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR VTZ013-015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA/NAS
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IRL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 172106
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
506 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION AND THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND IT
WILL BECOME WINDY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR...DRY...AND LESS
WINDY WEATHER.  WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 434 PM EDT...A SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND CNTRL-SRN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PESKY LINGERING OVER
THE FCST AREA FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION/SRN VT SOUTH
AND EAST. SOME SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC TROUGH AND THE
SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO
VALLEY...WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO DECREASE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

LOOKING UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BE
QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND W/SW QUEBEC BTWN
06Z-12Z/SAT. THE CLIPPER TYPE LOWS AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES
BY DAYBREAK. SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE NRN MOST
ZONES WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR MOST OF THE REGION CLEAR OR MOSTLY
CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M40S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND BERKSHIRES SOUTH...AND MAINLY M30S
TO AROUND 40F TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2 PM...AND LOCATIONS SOUTH
BETWEEN 2 PM AND 5 PM. THIS BOUNDARY IS MOISTURE STARVED...AND
ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE INCLUDED IN THE FCST FOR THE SRN
DACKS...NRN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND SRN VT.

THE BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND IN ITS WAKE AS BETTER MIXING OCCURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME WIND
GUSTS IN THE 30-39 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE IF WE MIX FROM 5-8
KFT AGL. IF WIDESPREAD 40 KT GUST VALUES ARE POSSIBLE...THEN A
WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER. WE ARE EXPECTING WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH. SOME OF THESE STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE ACROSS
THE NRN CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...HELDERBERGS...CAPITAL
REGION...AND THE N-CNTRL TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES. MIXING OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT...WILL ALLOW DEWPTS TO LOWER INTO THE 20S TO M30S
IN THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE MIN RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THE LACK OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 5
DAYS...RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS...AND WIND GUSTS
OF 25 MPH OR GREATER WITH COORDINATION WITH OUR FIRE WX
USERS...NEIGHBORING WFOS /BGM...BTV...OKX...BOX...GYX...AND BUF/ AND
SPC HAS WARRANTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON TO 8 PM TOMORROW.
THE FIRE WX WATCH WAS LEFT OUT OF WRN WINDHAM CTY DUE THE
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE SNOW PACK AND COLLAB WITH USERS. PORTIONS OF
THE SRN DACKS HAVE SNOW PACK...AND PARTS DO NOT...BUT BASED ON
FIRE CONTACT INPUT AND CONSISTENCY FROM THE MID WEEK THEY HAVE
BEEN KEPT IN THE FIRE WX WATCH FOR NOW. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WX
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

ALSO...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE ISSUED FOR CERTAIN
LOCATIONS IF FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL TOMORROW BASED ON
NEW INPUT FROM SOME OF THE USERS AND COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON /SRN VT/.

MAX TEMPS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING EFFECTS
WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
M70S NEAR KPOU...AND U50S TO M60S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AND THE
WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE NW WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE.

SAT NIGHT...H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO -4C FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...NRN BERKSHIRES AND HELDERBERGS NORTH...AND 0C TO -3C TO
THE SOUTH WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  THE
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH A COLD
CANADIAN SFC HIGH RIDGING S/SE FROM WRN QUEBEC. THE SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...AND THE WINDS LIGHT TO CALM FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE M20S TO L30S OVER THE
MTNS...AND PARTS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND MID TO U30S IN
THE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...A NICE CLOSE TO THE WEEKEND WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND. LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING.
LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW H850 TEMPS TO RISE TO
+2C TO +4C. THE MIXING DEPTHS WILL BE NO WHERE NEAR AS HIGH AS
SAT. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE AND PLEASANT WITH U50S TO L60S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER THE MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IMPACTING THE
LOWER 48. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A SECONDARY LOW FORMING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THE TIMING STILL VARIES ON THE ONSET OF THE RAIN AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT BASED ON THE NWP GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS DOWN STREAM...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES BTWN 06Z-12Z FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO START MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST BEFORE DAYBREAK.
CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED BTWN 09Z-12Z/MON. A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A 500HPA CUTOFF WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS
AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS
BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

THE FIRST AND STRONGEST SHORT WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
EARLY ON MONDAY WITH A STEADY SOAKING RAIN EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST CATEGORICAL POPS (80-90 PERCENT) DURING THIS TIME
WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. ON TUESDAY
THIS LOW WILL STILL BE AFFECTING THE REGION AS THE STEADY RAIN LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD...BUT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.

AFTER THIS FIRST SYSTEM MOVES OUT...TIMING OF THE NEXT MUCH WEAKER
SYSTEMS WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT. HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST 20 TO 40
PERCENT POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
IT WILL ALSO BE COOLER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SNOW SHOWERS ALSO
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURE WISE...MONDAY WILL BE A RAW DAY WITH A STEADY RAIN AND
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S. COOLER AFTER THAT WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH ABOUT 20Z TO 21Z...BUT AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT (MAINLY P6SM
SKC FOR TONIGHT). ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THETAF
SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 15Z AND 17Z. LITTLE WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS COLD AND HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 18Z SATURDAY. THE
MAIN IMPACT OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE A RAPID SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WINDS...WITH SPEED INCREASING TO 12 TO 16 KTS AND GUSTS
OF 22 TO 28 KTS.

BEFORE THEN...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST THUIS
AFTERNOON AT THE TAF SITES AT 8 TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KTS. WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR GUSTY WINDS...VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES IS IN EFFECT FROM 12PM TO 8PM
SATURDAY FOR EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT AND BENNINGTON AND EASTERN
WINDHAM COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED IN COORDINATION WITH THE NEW YORK
STATE DEC FOREST RANGERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...VERMONT
DEPARTMENT OF FORESTS...PARKS AND RECREATION...MASSACHUSETTS
DEPARTMENT OF CONSERVATION AND RECREATION...CONNECTICUT DEEP
DIVISION OF FORESTRY AND SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES.

TONIGHT...RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 80-100 PERCENT WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 5 MPH...EXCEPT FOR WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5-10 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SHIFTING THE
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...VERY DRY AIR WILL BE
IN ITS WAKE...WITH RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER
20S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BETWEEN 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 5000-8000 FEET
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 70S. IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT RED FLAG
CRITERIA WILL BE MET...A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS DAYTIME HEATING ENDS LATE SATURDAY
EVENING...POTENTIAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL END AS WINDS SUBSIDE TO
5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN
60-80 PERCENT...WITH 80-100 PERCENT RECOVERY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE RH VALUES GENERALLY 30-45 PERCENT WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAINFALL IS LIKELY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WITH
VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRNDACKS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VERMONT...BUT ONLY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HUNDREDTH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MOSTLY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A STORM
SYSTEM WILL A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TOWARDS DAY BREAK ON
MONDAY.

THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
INDICATES THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN
THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEASTERN
BERKSHIRE COUNTY. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS STILL
HAVE 4 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT.

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL AT
THIS TIME WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR VTZ013-015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...IRL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 172106
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
506 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION AND THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND IT
WILL BECOME WINDY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR...DRY...AND LESS
WINDY WEATHER.  WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 434 PM EDT...A SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND CNTRL-SRN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PESKY LINGERING OVER
THE FCST AREA FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION/SRN VT SOUTH
AND EAST. SOME SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC TROUGH AND THE
SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO
VALLEY...WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO DECREASE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

LOOKING UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BE
QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND W/SW QUEBEC BTWN
06Z-12Z/SAT. THE CLIPPER TYPE LOWS AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES
BY DAYBREAK. SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE NRN MOST
ZONES WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR MOST OF THE REGION CLEAR OR MOSTLY
CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M40S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND BERKSHIRES SOUTH...AND MAINLY M30S
TO AROUND 40F TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2 PM...AND LOCATIONS SOUTH
BETWEEN 2 PM AND 5 PM. THIS BOUNDARY IS MOISTURE STARVED...AND
ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE INCLUDED IN THE FCST FOR THE SRN
DACKS...NRN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND SRN VT.

THE BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND IN ITS WAKE AS BETTER MIXING OCCURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME WIND
GUSTS IN THE 30-39 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE IF WE MIX FROM 5-8
KFT AGL. IF WIDESPREAD 40 KT GUST VALUES ARE POSSIBLE...THEN A
WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER. WE ARE EXPECTING WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH. SOME OF THESE STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE ACROSS
THE NRN CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...HELDERBERGS...CAPITAL
REGION...AND THE N-CNTRL TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES. MIXING OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT...WILL ALLOW DEWPTS TO LOWER INTO THE 20S TO M30S
IN THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE MIN RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THE LACK OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 5
DAYS...RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS...AND WIND GUSTS
OF 25 MPH OR GREATER WITH COORDINATION WITH OUR FIRE WX
USERS...NEIGHBORING WFOS /BGM...BTV...OKX...BOX...GYX...AND BUF/ AND
SPC HAS WARRANTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON TO 8 PM TOMORROW.
THE FIRE WX WATCH WAS LEFT OUT OF WRN WINDHAM CTY DUE THE
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE SNOW PACK AND COLLAB WITH USERS. PORTIONS OF
THE SRN DACKS HAVE SNOW PACK...AND PARTS DO NOT...BUT BASED ON
FIRE CONTACT INPUT AND CONSISTENCY FROM THE MID WEEK THEY HAVE
BEEN KEPT IN THE FIRE WX WATCH FOR NOW. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WX
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

ALSO...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE ISSUED FOR CERTAIN
LOCATIONS IF FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL TOMORROW BASED ON
NEW INPUT FROM SOME OF THE USERS AND COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON /SRN VT/.

MAX TEMPS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING EFFECTS
WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
M70S NEAR KPOU...AND U50S TO M60S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AND THE
WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE NW WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE.

SAT NIGHT...H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO -4C FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...NRN BERKSHIRES AND HELDERBERGS NORTH...AND 0C TO -3C TO
THE SOUTH WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  THE
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH A COLD
CANADIAN SFC HIGH RIDGING S/SE FROM WRN QUEBEC. THE SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...AND THE WINDS LIGHT TO CALM FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE M20S TO L30S OVER THE
MTNS...AND PARTS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND MID TO U30S IN
THE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...A NICE CLOSE TO THE WEEKEND WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND. LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING.
LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW H850 TEMPS TO RISE TO
+2C TO +4C. THE MIXING DEPTHS WILL BE NO WHERE NEAR AS HIGH AS
SAT. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE AND PLEASANT WITH U50S TO L60S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER THE MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IMPACTING THE
LOWER 48. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A SECONDARY LOW FORMING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THE TIMING STILL VARIES ON THE ONSET OF THE RAIN AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT BASED ON THE NWP GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS DOWN STREAM...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES BTWN 06Z-12Z FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO START MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST BEFORE DAYBREAK.
CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED BTWN 09Z-12Z/MON. A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A 500HPA CUTOFF WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS
AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS
BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

THE FIRST AND STRONGEST SHORT WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
EARLY ON MONDAY WITH A STEADY SOAKING RAIN EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST CATEGORICAL POPS (80-90 PERCENT) DURING THIS TIME
WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. ON TUESDAY
THIS LOW WILL STILL BE AFFECTING THE REGION AS THE STEADY RAIN LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD...BUT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.

AFTER THIS FIRST SYSTEM MOVES OUT...TIMING OF THE NEXT MUCH WEAKER
SYSTEMS WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT. HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST 20 TO 40
PERCENT POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
IT WILL ALSO BE COOLER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SNOW SHOWERS ALSO
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURE WISE...MONDAY WILL BE A RAW DAY WITH A STEADY RAIN AND
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S. COOLER AFTER THAT WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH ABOUT 20Z TO 21Z...BUT AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT (MAINLY P6SM
SKC FOR TONIGHT). ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THETAF
SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 15Z AND 17Z. LITTLE WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS COLD AND HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 18Z SATURDAY. THE
MAIN IMPACT OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE A RAPID SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WINDS...WITH SPEED INCREASING TO 12 TO 16 KTS AND GUSTS
OF 22 TO 28 KTS.

BEFORE THEN...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST THUIS
AFTERNOON AT THE TAF SITES AT 8 TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KTS. WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR GUSTY WINDS...VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES IS IN EFFECT FROM 12PM TO 8PM
SATURDAY FOR EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT AND BENNINGTON AND EASTERN
WINDHAM COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED IN COORDINATION WITH THE NEW YORK
STATE DEC FOREST RANGERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...VERMONT
DEPARTMENT OF FORESTS...PARKS AND RECREATION...MASSACHUSETTS
DEPARTMENT OF CONSERVATION AND RECREATION...CONNECTICUT DEEP
DIVISION OF FORESTRY AND SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES.

TONIGHT...RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 80-100 PERCENT WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 5 MPH...EXCEPT FOR WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5-10 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SHIFTING THE
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...VERY DRY AIR WILL BE
IN ITS WAKE...WITH RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER
20S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BETWEEN 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 5000-8000 FEET
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 70S. IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT RED FLAG
CRITERIA WILL BE MET...A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS DAYTIME HEATING ENDS LATE SATURDAY
EVENING...POTENTIAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL END AS WINDS SUBSIDE TO
5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN
60-80 PERCENT...WITH 80-100 PERCENT RECOVERY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE RH VALUES GENERALLY 30-45 PERCENT WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAINFALL IS LIKELY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WITH
VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRNDACKS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VERMONT...BUT ONLY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HUNDREDTH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MOSTLY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A STORM
SYSTEM WILL A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TOWARDS DAY BREAK ON
MONDAY.

THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
INDICATES THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN
THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEASTERN
BERKSHIRE COUNTY. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS STILL
HAVE 4 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT.

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL AT
THIS TIME WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR VTZ013-015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...IRL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 172034
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
434 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION AND THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND IT
WILL BECOME WINDY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR...DRY...AND LESS
WINDY WEATHER.  WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 434 PM EDT...A SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND CNTRL-SRN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PESKY LINGERING OVER
THE FCST AREA FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION/SRN VT SOUTH
AND EAST. SOME SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC TROUGH AND THE
SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO
VALLEY...WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO DECREASE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

LOOKING UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BE
QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND W/SW QUEBEC BTWN
06Z-12Z/SAT. THE CLIPPER TYPE LOWS AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES
BY DAYBREAK. SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE NRN MOST
ZONES WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR MOST OF THE REGION CLEAR OR MOSTLY
CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M40S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND BERKSHIRES SOUTH...AND MAINLY M30S
TO AROUND 40F TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2 PM...AND LOCATIONS SOUTH
BETWEEN 2 PM AND 5 PM. THIS BOUNDARY IS MOISTURE STARVED...AND
ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE INCLUDED IN THE FCST FOR THE SRN
DACKS...NRN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND SRN VT.

THE BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND IN ITS WAKE AS BETTER MIXING OCCURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME WIND
GUSTS IN THE 30-39 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE IF WE MIX FROM 5-8
KFT AGL. IF WIDESPREAD 40 KT GUST VALUES ARE POSSIBLE...THEN A
WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER. WE ARE EXPECTING WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH. SOME OF THESE STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE ACROSS
THE NRN CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...HELDERBERGS...CAPITAL
REGION...AND THE N-CNTRL TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES. MIXING OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT...WILL ALLOW DEWPTS TO LOWER INTO THE 20S TO M30S
IN THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE MIN RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THE LACK OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 5
DAYS...RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS...AND WIND GUSTS
OF 25 MPH OR GREATER WITH COORDINATION WITH OUR FIRE WX
USERS...NEIGHBORING WFOS AND SPC HAS WARRANTED A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FROM NOON TO 8 PM TOMORROW. THE FIRE WX WATCH WAS LEFT OUT
OF WRN WINDHAM CTY DUE THE WIDESPREAD AND DENSE SNOW PACK AND
COLLAB WITH USERS. PORTIONS OF THE SRN DACKS HAVE SNOW PACK...AND
PARTS DO NOT...BUT BASED ON FIRE CONTACT INPUT AND CONSISTENCY
FROM THE MID WEEK THEY HAVE BEEN KEPT IN THE FIRE WX WATCH FOR
NOW. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

MAX TEMPS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING EFFECTS
WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
M70S NEAR KPOU...AND U50S TO M60S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AND THE
WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE NW WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE.

SAT NIGHT...H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO -4C FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...NRN BERKSHIRES AND HELDERBERGS NORTH...AND 0C TO -3C TO
THE SOUTH WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  THE
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH A COLD
CANADIAN SFC HIGH RIDGING S/SE FROM WRN QUEBEC. THE SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...AND THE WINDS LIGHT TO CALM FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE M20S TO L30S OVER THE
MTNS...AND PARTS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND MID TO U30S IN
THE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...A NICE CLOSE TO THE WEEKEND WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND. LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING.
LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW H850 TEMPS TO RISE TO
+2C TO +4C. THE MIXING DEPTHS WILL BE NO WHERE NEAR AS HIGH AS
SAT. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE AND PLEASANT WITH U50S TO L60S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER THE MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IMPACTING THE
LOWER 48. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A SECONDARY LOW FORMING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THE TIMING STILL VARIES ON THE ONSET OF THE RAIN AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT BASED ON THE NWP GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS DOWN STREAM...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES BTWN 06Z-12Z FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO START MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST BEFORE DAYBREAK.
CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED BTWN 09Z-12Z/MON. A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A 500HPA CUTOFF WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS
AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS
BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

THE FIRST AND STRONGEST SHORT WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
EARLY ON MONDAY WITH A STEADY SOAKING RAIN EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST CATEGORICAL POPS (80-90 PERCENT) DURING THIS TIME
WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. ON TUESDAY
THIS LOW WILL STILL BE AFFECTING THE REGION AS THE STEADY RAIN LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD...BUT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.

AFTER THIS FIRST SYSTEM MOVES OUT...TIMING OF THE NEXT MUCH WEAKER
SYSTEMS WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT. HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST 20 TO 40
PERCENT POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
IT WILL ALSO BE COOLER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SNOW SHOWERS ALSO
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURE WISE...MONDAY WILL BE A RAW DAY WITH A STEADY RAIN AND
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S. COOLER AFTER THAT WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH ABOUT 20Z TO 21Z...BUT AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT (MAINLY P6SM
SKC FOR TONIGHT). ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THETAF
SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 15Z AND 17Z. LITTLE WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS COLD AND HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 18Z SATURDAY. THE
MAIN IMPACT OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE A RAPID SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WINDS...WITH SPEED INCREASING TO 12 TO 16 KTS AND GUSTS
OF 22 TO 28 KTS.

BEFORE THEN...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST THUIS
AFTERNOON AT THE TAF SITES AT 8 TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KTS. WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR GUSTY WINDS...VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES IS IN EFFECT FROM 12PM TO 8PM
SATURDAY FOR EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT AND BENNINGTON AND EASTERN
WINDHAM COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED IN COORDINATION WITH THE NEW YORK
STATE DEC FOREST RANGERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...VERMONT
DEPARTMENT OF FORESTS...PARKS AND RECREATION...MASSACHUSETTS
DEPARTMENT OF CONSERVATION AND RECREATION...CONNECTICUT DEEP
DIVISION OF FORESTRY AND SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES.

TONIGHT...RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 80-100 PERCENT WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 5 MPH...EXCEPT FOR WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5-10 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SHIFTING THE
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...VERY DRY AIR WILL BE
IN ITS WAKE...WITH RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER
20S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BETWEEN 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 5000-8000 FEET
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 70S. IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT RED FLAG
CRITERIA WILL BE MET...A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS DAYTIME HEATING ENDS LATE SATURDAY
EVENING...POTENTIAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL END AS WINDS SUBSIDE TO
5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN
60-80 PERCENT...WITH 80-100 PERCENT RECOVERY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE RH VALUES GENERALLY 30-45 PERCENT WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAINFALL IS LIKELY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WITH
VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRNDACKS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VERMONT...BUT ONLY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HUNDREDTH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MOSTLY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A STORM
SYSTEM WILL A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TOWARDS DAY BREAK ON
MONDAY.

THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
INDICATES THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN
THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEASTERN
BERKSHIRE COUNTY. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS STILL
HAVE 4 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT.

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL AT
THIS TIME WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR VTZ013-015.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...IRL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 172034
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
434 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION AND THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND IT
WILL BECOME WINDY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR...DRY...AND LESS
WINDY WEATHER.  WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 434 PM EDT...A SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND CNTRL-SRN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PESKY LINGERING OVER
THE FCST AREA FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION/SRN VT SOUTH
AND EAST. SOME SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC TROUGH AND THE
SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO
VALLEY...WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO DECREASE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

LOOKING UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BE
QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AND W/SW QUEBEC BTWN
06Z-12Z/SAT. THE CLIPPER TYPE LOWS AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES
BY DAYBREAK. SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE NRN MOST
ZONES WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR MOST OF THE REGION CLEAR OR MOSTLY
CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M40S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND BERKSHIRES SOUTH...AND MAINLY M30S
TO AROUND 40F TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2 PM...AND LOCATIONS SOUTH
BETWEEN 2 PM AND 5 PM. THIS BOUNDARY IS MOISTURE STARVED...AND
ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE INCLUDED IN THE FCST FOR THE SRN
DACKS...NRN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND SRN VT.

THE BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND IN ITS WAKE AS BETTER MIXING OCCURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME WIND
GUSTS IN THE 30-39 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE IF WE MIX FROM 5-8
KFT AGL. IF WIDESPREAD 40 KT GUST VALUES ARE POSSIBLE...THEN A
WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER. WE ARE EXPECTING WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH. SOME OF THESE STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE ACROSS
THE NRN CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...HELDERBERGS...CAPITAL
REGION...AND THE N-CNTRL TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES. MIXING OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT...WILL ALLOW DEWPTS TO LOWER INTO THE 20S TO M30S
IN THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE MIN RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THE LACK OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 5
DAYS...RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS...AND WIND GUSTS
OF 25 MPH OR GREATER WITH COORDINATION WITH OUR FIRE WX
USERS...NEIGHBORING WFOS AND SPC HAS WARRANTED A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FROM NOON TO 8 PM TOMORROW. THE FIRE WX WATCH WAS LEFT OUT
OF WRN WINDHAM CTY DUE THE WIDESPREAD AND DENSE SNOW PACK AND
COLLAB WITH USERS. PORTIONS OF THE SRN DACKS HAVE SNOW PACK...AND
PARTS DO NOT...BUT BASED ON FIRE CONTACT INPUT AND CONSISTENCY
FROM THE MID WEEK THEY HAVE BEEN KEPT IN THE FIRE WX WATCH FOR
NOW. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

MAX TEMPS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING EFFECTS
WILL BE IN THE U60S TO L70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
M70S NEAR KPOU...AND U50S TO M60S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AND THE
WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. THE NW WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE.

SAT NIGHT...H850 TEMPS FALL TO 0C TO -4C FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...NRN BERKSHIRES AND HELDERBERGS NORTH...AND 0C TO -3C TO
THE SOUTH WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  THE
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH A COLD
CANADIAN SFC HIGH RIDGING S/SE FROM WRN QUEBEC. THE SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...AND THE WINDS LIGHT TO CALM FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE M20S TO L30S OVER THE
MTNS...AND PARTS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND MID TO U30S IN
THE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...A NICE CLOSE TO THE WEEKEND WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND. LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING.
LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW H850 TEMPS TO RISE TO
+2C TO +4C. THE MIXING DEPTHS WILL BE NO WHERE NEAR AS HIGH AS
SAT. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE AND PLEASANT WITH U50S TO L60S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER THE MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IMPACTING THE
LOWER 48. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH A SECONDARY LOW FORMING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THE TIMING STILL VARIES ON THE ONSET OF THE RAIN AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT BASED ON THE NWP GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS DOWN STREAM...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES BTWN 06Z-12Z FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO START MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST BEFORE DAYBREAK.
CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED BTWN 09Z-12Z/MON. A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO OPEN THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A 500HPA CUTOFF WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS
AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS
BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

THE FIRST AND STRONGEST SHORT WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
EARLY ON MONDAY WITH A STEADY SOAKING RAIN EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST CATEGORICAL POPS (80-90 PERCENT) DURING THIS TIME
WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. ON TUESDAY
THIS LOW WILL STILL BE AFFECTING THE REGION AS THE STEADY RAIN LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD...BUT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.

AFTER THIS FIRST SYSTEM MOVES OUT...TIMING OF THE NEXT MUCH WEAKER
SYSTEMS WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT. HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST 20 TO 40
PERCENT POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
IT WILL ALSO BE COOLER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SNOW SHOWERS ALSO
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURE WISE...MONDAY WILL BE A RAW DAY WITH A STEADY RAIN AND
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S. COOLER AFTER THAT WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH ABOUT 20Z TO 21Z...BUT AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT (MAINLY P6SM
SKC FOR TONIGHT). ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THETAF
SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 15Z AND 17Z. LITTLE WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS COLD AND HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 18Z SATURDAY. THE
MAIN IMPACT OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE A RAPID SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WINDS...WITH SPEED INCREASING TO 12 TO 16 KTS AND GUSTS
OF 22 TO 28 KTS.

BEFORE THEN...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST THUIS
AFTERNOON AT THE TAF SITES AT 8 TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KTS. WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR GUSTY WINDS...VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES IS IN EFFECT FROM 12PM TO 8PM
SATURDAY FOR EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT AND BENNINGTON AND EASTERN
WINDHAM COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED IN COORDINATION WITH THE NEW YORK
STATE DEC FOREST RANGERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...VERMONT
DEPARTMENT OF FORESTS...PARKS AND RECREATION...MASSACHUSETTS
DEPARTMENT OF CONSERVATION AND RECREATION...CONNECTICUT DEEP
DIVISION OF FORESTRY AND SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES.

TONIGHT...RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 80-100 PERCENT WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 5 MPH...EXCEPT FOR WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5-10 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SHIFTING THE
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...VERY DRY AIR WILL BE
IN ITS WAKE...WITH RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER
20S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BETWEEN 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 5000-8000 FEET
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 70S. IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT RED FLAG
CRITERIA WILL BE MET...A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS DAYTIME HEATING ENDS LATE SATURDAY
EVENING...POTENTIAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL END AS WINDS SUBSIDE TO
5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN
60-80 PERCENT...WITH 80-100 PERCENT RECOVERY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE RH VALUES GENERALLY 30-45 PERCENT WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAINFALL IS LIKELY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WITH
VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRNDACKS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN VERMONT...BUT ONLY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HUNDREDTH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MOSTLY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A STORM
SYSTEM WILL A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TOWARDS DAY BREAK ON
MONDAY.

THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)
INDICATES THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN
THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEASTERN
BERKSHIRE COUNTY. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS STILL
HAVE 4 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT.

THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL AT
THIS TIME WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVER AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEB-
SITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR VTZ013-015.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...IRL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KBTV 172027
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
427 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY. RATHER
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH FROM CANADA
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODELS SHOWING A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. HAVE PUT IN A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...EXCEPT HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT ON SATURDAY. GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHEAST VERMONT
MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY GIVEN FULL SUN...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF
THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. GFS MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT TOO COLD FOR
MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER END OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS MIN GUIDANCE.

ECMWF...GFS AND NAM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SLOWING DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS INTO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. HAVE
JUST SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE ALSO GONE WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...OVERALL THOUGHTS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK
HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH THIS REFRESH OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. 12Z
GUIDANCE STILL SIMILAR WITH ONE ANOTHER AND RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS
RUNS AND INDICATING A RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOLISH WEEK COMING
UP. MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BE COMING THROUGH MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY, AND WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL (PERHAPS 1" IN PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS) AND
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS).  DAILY DETAILS ARE BELOW...

MONDAY:
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTRY WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PUSHING FAIRLY QUICKLY
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS LOW REACHES OUR
LATITUDE, A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW-MID LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND HELPS
TO TRANSPORT A PRETTY DEEP RIVER OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THIS MOISTURE HAS BOTH GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
ORIGINS, AND AS A RESULT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
APPROACHING 1" (WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). AT
THE SAME TIME, THE 0.5 TO 1KM WINDS STRENGTHEN INTO THE 45-55KT
RANGE. GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AND INDICATIONS OF AN
INVERSION AROUND MOUNTAIN SUMMIT LEVEL, THIS INDICATES TO ME THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SOME OF THOSE STRONG WINDS TO GET FUNNELED BETWEEN
THOSE SUMMITS AND INVERSION AND RESULT IN SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. TRIED TO BEEF UP THE
WIND GUSTS TO SHOW SOME GUSTS OF 40-50MPH. ON THE RAINFALL ASPECT,
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG JET SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS COULD BE PRETTY STRONG - PERHAPS AN 1" OR SO ON THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS AND PERHAPS THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE `DACKS, HOWEVER SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD KEEP QPF LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND
SHADOWING FROM THE GREENS WILL KEEP THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION A
BIT DRIER. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME SHARP RISES ON SOME RIVERS.
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE LATER GUIDANCE TO SEE IF THERE WILL BE ANY
SORT OF FLOOD THREAT. ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT, STUCK CLOSE TO A
GUIDANCE MIX. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP IT ON THE COOL SIDE (50S)
WITH 40S AT NIGHT. IN SUMMARY -- ONE OF THOSE RAW/WET DAYS.

TUESDAY: LOOKS LIKE A SMALL SECONDARY LOW WILL PASS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. AS IT DOES SO, RAIN SHOULD START COMING TO AN
END. MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON - ESPECIALLY THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, BUT OTHERWISE LOTS OF CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN
ON THE COOLER SIDE COMPARED TO NORMAL - MORE 50S.

WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY & FRIDAY: NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE FROM DAY TO DAY.
LOOKS LIKE WE`LL SEE A BIG BOWLING BALL CUT-OFF LOW SET UP
SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN CANADA. GFS AND EURO ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT
IN EXACT LOCATION (EURO A BIT MORE SOUTH), BUT THE NET RESULT IS
THE SAME. LOTS OF CLOUDS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE -1 TO -4C RANGE,
THUS IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE HIGHER SUMMITS (ABOVE 2000FT)
TO SEE SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS. COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION OVER THE 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD AT THOSE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
NOTHING TO REALLY LATCH ONTO WITH REGARD TO IF THERE WILL BE A
PREFERRED TIME FOR SHOWERS VS PREFERRED TIME OF BRIEF DRY PERIODS.
AS SUCH, JUST PAINTED IN A LOT OF 30-50% POPS THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY TRENDING VFR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. ANY REMAINING MVFR CEILINGS (MAINLY
EASTERN VERMONT) WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE EXPECTING A RATHER QUIET AFTERNOON. PERHAPS SOME SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 15KT. QUIET/CLEAR/LIGHT WINDS/VFR OVERNIGHT. SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATED A CHANCE OF SOME IFR CEILINGS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN NY, PRIMARILY SLK TERMINAL. AT THIS POINT, HAVE NOT
INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
QUICKLY TRAVERSE ACROSS NORTHERN NY BETWEEN 14-17Z AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT BETWEEN 16-19Z. AT THIS POINT HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED "VCSH" IN THE TAFS, BUT THEY COULD BRING A BRIEF (<2 HOUR
PERIOD) OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS THEY MOVE PAST ANY SPECIFIC
LOCATION. WITH AND IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THESE SHOWERS,
SURFACE WINDS WILL KICK AROUND TO NORTHWEST, STRENGTHEN AND GET
RATHER GUSTY. THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z, AND
SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KT IN MANY LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR, WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
MVFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM
NOON THROUGH 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WESTERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE NOT PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR EASTERN RUTLAND COUNTY DUE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AROUND 30 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. FUELS ARE DRY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. THE CONDITIONS ARE RATHER MARGINAL
THAT RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED ON SATURDAY...SO
WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON THIS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ011-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH
FIRE WEATHER...WGH



000
FXUS61 KBTV 172027
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
427 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY. RATHER
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH FROM CANADA
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODELS SHOWING A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. HAVE PUT IN A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...EXCEPT HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT ON SATURDAY. GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHEAST VERMONT
MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY GIVEN FULL SUN...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF
THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. GFS MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT TOO COLD FOR
MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER END OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS MIN GUIDANCE.

ECMWF...GFS AND NAM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SLOWING DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS INTO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. HAVE
JUST SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE ALSO GONE WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...OVERALL THOUGHTS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK
HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH THIS REFRESH OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. 12Z
GUIDANCE STILL SIMILAR WITH ONE ANOTHER AND RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS
RUNS AND INDICATING A RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOLISH WEEK COMING
UP. MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BE COMING THROUGH MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY, AND WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL (PERHAPS 1" IN PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS) AND
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS).  DAILY DETAILS ARE BELOW...

MONDAY:
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTRY WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PUSHING FAIRLY QUICKLY
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS LOW REACHES OUR
LATITUDE, A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW-MID LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND HELPS
TO TRANSPORT A PRETTY DEEP RIVER OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THIS MOISTURE HAS BOTH GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
ORIGINS, AND AS A RESULT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
APPROACHING 1" (WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). AT
THE SAME TIME, THE 0.5 TO 1KM WINDS STRENGTHEN INTO THE 45-55KT
RANGE. GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AND INDICATIONS OF AN
INVERSION AROUND MOUNTAIN SUMMIT LEVEL, THIS INDICATES TO ME THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SOME OF THOSE STRONG WINDS TO GET FUNNELED BETWEEN
THOSE SUMMITS AND INVERSION AND RESULT IN SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. TRIED TO BEEF UP THE
WIND GUSTS TO SHOW SOME GUSTS OF 40-50MPH. ON THE RAINFALL ASPECT,
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG JET SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS COULD BE PRETTY STRONG - PERHAPS AN 1" OR SO ON THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS AND PERHAPS THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE `DACKS, HOWEVER SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD KEEP QPF LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND
SHADOWING FROM THE GREENS WILL KEEP THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION A
BIT DRIER. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME SHARP RISES ON SOME RIVERS.
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE LATER GUIDANCE TO SEE IF THERE WILL BE ANY
SORT OF FLOOD THREAT. ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT, STUCK CLOSE TO A
GUIDANCE MIX. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP IT ON THE COOL SIDE (50S)
WITH 40S AT NIGHT. IN SUMMARY -- ONE OF THOSE RAW/WET DAYS.

TUESDAY: LOOKS LIKE A SMALL SECONDARY LOW WILL PASS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. AS IT DOES SO, RAIN SHOULD START COMING TO AN
END. MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON - ESPECIALLY THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, BUT OTHERWISE LOTS OF CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN
ON THE COOLER SIDE COMPARED TO NORMAL - MORE 50S.

WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY & FRIDAY: NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE FROM DAY TO DAY.
LOOKS LIKE WE`LL SEE A BIG BOWLING BALL CUT-OFF LOW SET UP
SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN CANADA. GFS AND EURO ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT
IN EXACT LOCATION (EURO A BIT MORE SOUTH), BUT THE NET RESULT IS
THE SAME. LOTS OF CLOUDS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE -1 TO -4C RANGE,
THUS IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE HIGHER SUMMITS (ABOVE 2000FT)
TO SEE SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS. COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION OVER THE 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD AT THOSE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
NOTHING TO REALLY LATCH ONTO WITH REGARD TO IF THERE WILL BE A
PREFERRED TIME FOR SHOWERS VS PREFERRED TIME OF BRIEF DRY PERIODS.
AS SUCH, JUST PAINTED IN A LOT OF 30-50% POPS THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY TRENDING VFR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. ANY REMAINING MVFR CEILINGS (MAINLY
EASTERN VERMONT) WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE EXPECTING A RATHER QUIET AFTERNOON. PERHAPS SOME SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 15KT. QUIET/CLEAR/LIGHT WINDS/VFR OVERNIGHT. SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATED A CHANCE OF SOME IFR CEILINGS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN NY, PRIMARILY SLK TERMINAL. AT THIS POINT, HAVE NOT
INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
QUICKLY TRAVERSE ACROSS NORTHERN NY BETWEEN 14-17Z AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT BETWEEN 16-19Z. AT THIS POINT HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED "VCSH" IN THE TAFS, BUT THEY COULD BRING A BRIEF (<2 HOUR
PERIOD) OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS THEY MOVE PAST ANY SPECIFIC
LOCATION. WITH AND IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THESE SHOWERS,
SURFACE WINDS WILL KICK AROUND TO NORTHWEST, STRENGTHEN AND GET
RATHER GUSTY. THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z, AND
SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KT IN MANY LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR, WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
MVFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM
NOON THROUGH 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WESTERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE NOT PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR EASTERN RUTLAND COUNTY DUE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AROUND 30 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. FUELS ARE DRY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. THE CONDITIONS ARE RATHER MARGINAL
THAT RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED ON SATURDAY...SO
WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON THIS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ011-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH
FIRE WEATHER...WGH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 172027
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
427 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY. RATHER
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH FROM CANADA
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODELS SHOWING A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. HAVE PUT IN A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...EXCEPT HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT ON SATURDAY. GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHEAST VERMONT
MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY GIVEN FULL SUN...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF
THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. GFS MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT TOO COLD FOR
MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER END OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS MIN GUIDANCE.

ECMWF...GFS AND NAM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SLOWING DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS INTO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. HAVE
JUST SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE ALSO GONE WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...OVERALL THOUGHTS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK
HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH THIS REFRESH OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. 12Z
GUIDANCE STILL SIMILAR WITH ONE ANOTHER AND RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS
RUNS AND INDICATING A RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOLISH WEEK COMING
UP. MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BE COMING THROUGH MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY, AND WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL (PERHAPS 1" IN PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS) AND
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS).  DAILY DETAILS ARE BELOW...

MONDAY:
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTRY WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PUSHING FAIRLY QUICKLY
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS LOW REACHES OUR
LATITUDE, A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW-MID LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND HELPS
TO TRANSPORT A PRETTY DEEP RIVER OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THIS MOISTURE HAS BOTH GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
ORIGINS, AND AS A RESULT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
APPROACHING 1" (WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). AT
THE SAME TIME, THE 0.5 TO 1KM WINDS STRENGTHEN INTO THE 45-55KT
RANGE. GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AND INDICATIONS OF AN
INVERSION AROUND MOUNTAIN SUMMIT LEVEL, THIS INDICATES TO ME THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SOME OF THOSE STRONG WINDS TO GET FUNNELED BETWEEN
THOSE SUMMITS AND INVERSION AND RESULT IN SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. TRIED TO BEEF UP THE
WIND GUSTS TO SHOW SOME GUSTS OF 40-50MPH. ON THE RAINFALL ASPECT,
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG JET SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS COULD BE PRETTY STRONG - PERHAPS AN 1" OR SO ON THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS AND PERHAPS THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE `DACKS, HOWEVER SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD KEEP QPF LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND
SHADOWING FROM THE GREENS WILL KEEP THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION A
BIT DRIER. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME SHARP RISES ON SOME RIVERS.
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE LATER GUIDANCE TO SEE IF THERE WILL BE ANY
SORT OF FLOOD THREAT. ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT, STUCK CLOSE TO A
GUIDANCE MIX. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP IT ON THE COOL SIDE (50S)
WITH 40S AT NIGHT. IN SUMMARY -- ONE OF THOSE RAW/WET DAYS.

TUESDAY: LOOKS LIKE A SMALL SECONDARY LOW WILL PASS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. AS IT DOES SO, RAIN SHOULD START COMING TO AN
END. MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON - ESPECIALLY THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, BUT OTHERWISE LOTS OF CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN
ON THE COOLER SIDE COMPARED TO NORMAL - MORE 50S.

WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY & FRIDAY: NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE FROM DAY TO DAY.
LOOKS LIKE WE`LL SEE A BIG BOWLING BALL CUT-OFF LOW SET UP
SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN CANADA. GFS AND EURO ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT
IN EXACT LOCATION (EURO A BIT MORE SOUTH), BUT THE NET RESULT IS
THE SAME. LOTS OF CLOUDS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE -1 TO -4C RANGE,
THUS IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE HIGHER SUMMITS (ABOVE 2000FT)
TO SEE SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS. COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION OVER THE 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD AT THOSE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
NOTHING TO REALLY LATCH ONTO WITH REGARD TO IF THERE WILL BE A
PREFERRED TIME FOR SHOWERS VS PREFERRED TIME OF BRIEF DRY PERIODS.
AS SUCH, JUST PAINTED IN A LOT OF 30-50% POPS THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY TRENDING VFR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. ANY REMAINING MVFR CEILINGS (MAINLY
EASTERN VERMONT) WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE EXPECTING A RATHER QUIET AFTERNOON. PERHAPS SOME SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 15KT. QUIET/CLEAR/LIGHT WINDS/VFR OVERNIGHT. SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATED A CHANCE OF SOME IFR CEILINGS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN NY, PRIMARILY SLK TERMINAL. AT THIS POINT, HAVE NOT
INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
QUICKLY TRAVERSE ACROSS NORTHERN NY BETWEEN 14-17Z AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT BETWEEN 16-19Z. AT THIS POINT HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED "VCSH" IN THE TAFS, BUT THEY COULD BRING A BRIEF (<2 HOUR
PERIOD) OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS THEY MOVE PAST ANY SPECIFIC
LOCATION. WITH AND IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THESE SHOWERS,
SURFACE WINDS WILL KICK AROUND TO NORTHWEST, STRENGTHEN AND GET
RATHER GUSTY. THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z, AND
SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KT IN MANY LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR, WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
MVFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM
NOON THROUGH 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WESTERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE NOT PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR EASTERN RUTLAND COUNTY DUE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AROUND 30 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. FUELS ARE DRY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. THE CONDITIONS ARE RATHER MARGINAL
THAT RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED ON SATURDAY...SO
WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON THIS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ011-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH
FIRE WEATHER...WGH



000
FXUS61 KBTV 172027
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
427 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY. RATHER
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH FROM CANADA
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODELS SHOWING A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. HAVE PUT IN A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...EXCEPT HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT ON SATURDAY. GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHEAST VERMONT
MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COOL FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY GIVEN FULL SUN...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF
THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. GFS MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT TOO COLD FOR
MIN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER END OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS MIN GUIDANCE.

ECMWF...GFS AND NAM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SLOWING DOWN THE
ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS INTO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. HAVE
JUST SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE ALSO GONE WARMER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...OVERALL THOUGHTS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK
HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH THIS REFRESH OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. 12Z
GUIDANCE STILL SIMILAR WITH ONE ANOTHER AND RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS
RUNS AND INDICATING A RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOLISH WEEK COMING
UP. MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BE COMING THROUGH MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY, AND WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL (PERHAPS 1" IN PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS) AND
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS).  DAILY DETAILS ARE BELOW...

MONDAY:
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTRY WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PUSHING FAIRLY QUICKLY
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS LOW REACHES OUR
LATITUDE, A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW-MID LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND HELPS
TO TRANSPORT A PRETTY DEEP RIVER OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THIS MOISTURE HAS BOTH GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
ORIGINS, AND AS A RESULT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
APPROACHING 1" (WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). AT
THE SAME TIME, THE 0.5 TO 1KM WINDS STRENGTHEN INTO THE 45-55KT
RANGE. GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AND INDICATIONS OF AN
INVERSION AROUND MOUNTAIN SUMMIT LEVEL, THIS INDICATES TO ME THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SOME OF THOSE STRONG WINDS TO GET FUNNELED BETWEEN
THOSE SUMMITS AND INVERSION AND RESULT IN SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. TRIED TO BEEF UP THE
WIND GUSTS TO SHOW SOME GUSTS OF 40-50MPH. ON THE RAINFALL ASPECT,
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG JET SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS COULD BE PRETTY STRONG - PERHAPS AN 1" OR SO ON THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS AND PERHAPS THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE `DACKS, HOWEVER SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD KEEP QPF LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND
SHADOWING FROM THE GREENS WILL KEEP THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION A
BIT DRIER. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME SHARP RISES ON SOME RIVERS.
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE LATER GUIDANCE TO SEE IF THERE WILL BE ANY
SORT OF FLOOD THREAT. ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT, STUCK CLOSE TO A
GUIDANCE MIX. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP IT ON THE COOL SIDE (50S)
WITH 40S AT NIGHT. IN SUMMARY -- ONE OF THOSE RAW/WET DAYS.

TUESDAY: LOOKS LIKE A SMALL SECONDARY LOW WILL PASS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. AS IT DOES SO, RAIN SHOULD START COMING TO AN
END. MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON - ESPECIALLY THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, BUT OTHERWISE LOTS OF CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN
ON THE COOLER SIDE COMPARED TO NORMAL - MORE 50S.

WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY & FRIDAY: NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE FROM DAY TO DAY.
LOOKS LIKE WE`LL SEE A BIG BOWLING BALL CUT-OFF LOW SET UP
SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN CANADA. GFS AND EURO ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT
IN EXACT LOCATION (EURO A BIT MORE SOUTH), BUT THE NET RESULT IS
THE SAME. LOTS OF CLOUDS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE -1 TO -4C RANGE,
THUS IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE HIGHER SUMMITS (ABOVE 2000FT)
TO SEE SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS. COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION OVER THE 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD AT THOSE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
NOTHING TO REALLY LATCH ONTO WITH REGARD TO IF THERE WILL BE A
PREFERRED TIME FOR SHOWERS VS PREFERRED TIME OF BRIEF DRY PERIODS.
AS SUCH, JUST PAINTED IN A LOT OF 30-50% POPS THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY TRENDING VFR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. ANY REMAINING MVFR CEILINGS (MAINLY
EASTERN VERMONT) WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE EXPECTING A RATHER QUIET AFTERNOON. PERHAPS SOME SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 15KT. QUIET/CLEAR/LIGHT WINDS/VFR OVERNIGHT. SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATED A CHANCE OF SOME IFR CEILINGS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN NY, PRIMARILY SLK TERMINAL. AT THIS POINT, HAVE NOT
INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
QUICKLY TRAVERSE ACROSS NORTHERN NY BETWEEN 14-17Z AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT BETWEEN 16-19Z. AT THIS POINT HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED "VCSH" IN THE TAFS, BUT THEY COULD BRING A BRIEF (<2 HOUR
PERIOD) OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS THEY MOVE PAST ANY SPECIFIC
LOCATION. WITH AND IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THESE SHOWERS,
SURFACE WINDS WILL KICK AROUND TO NORTHWEST, STRENGTHEN AND GET
RATHER GUSTY. THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z, AND
SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KT IN MANY LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR, WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
MVFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 427 PM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM
NOON THROUGH 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WESTERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE NOT PUT UP A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR EASTERN RUTLAND COUNTY DUE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AROUND 30 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. FUELS ARE DRY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. THE CONDITIONS ARE RATHER MARGINAL
THAT RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED ON SATURDAY...SO
WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAKE THE FINAL CALL ON THIS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ011-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH
FIRE WEATHER...WGH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 171936
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
336 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING.
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON
SATURDAY AND BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SUNSHINE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1241 PM EDT FRIDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING BREAKS
DEVELOPING IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

ON SATURDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...AND
SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INDICATED FOR NORTHERN VERMONT...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WIND FIELDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTERS EXPECTED BE A BIT BELOW ZERO ACROSS VERMONT. SO SOME OF
THE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN SPOTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.

SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SATURDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN +6 AND +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH
WITH FULL SUN SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...OVERALL THOUGHTS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK
HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH THIS REFRESH OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. 12Z
GUIDANCE STILL SIMILAR WITH ONE ANOTHER AND RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS
RUNS AND INDICATING A RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOLISH WEEK COMING
UP. MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BE COMING THROUGH MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY, AND WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL (PERHAPS 1" IN PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS) AND
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS).  DAILY DETAILS ARE BELOW...

MONDAY:
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTRY WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PUSHING FAIRLY QUICKLY
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS LOW REACHES OUR
LATITUDE, A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW-MID LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND HELPS
TO TRANSPORT A PRETTY DEEP RIVER OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THIS MOISTURE HAS BOTH GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
ORIGINS, AND AS A RESULT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
APPROACHING 1" (WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). AT
THE SAME TIME, THE 0.5 TO 1KM WINDS STRENGTHEN INTO THE 45-55KT
RANGE. GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AND INDICATIONS OF AN
INVERSION AROUND MOUNTAIN SUMMIT LEVEL, THIS INDICATES TO ME THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SOME OF THOSE STRONG WINDS TO GET FUNNELED BETWEEN
THOSE SUMMITS AND INVERSION AND RESULT IN SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. TRIED TO BEEF UP THE
WIND GUSTS TO SHOW SOME GUSTS OF 40-50MPH. ON THE RAINFALL ASPECT,
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG JET SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS COULD BE PRETTY STRONG - PERHAPS AN 1" OR SO ON THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS AND PERHAPS THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE `DACKS, HOWEVER SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD KEEP QPF LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND
SHADOWING FROM THE GREENS WILL KEEP THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION A
BIT DRIER. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME SHARP RISES ON SOME RIVERS.
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE LATER GUIDANCE TO SEE IF THERE WILL BE ANY
SORT OF FLOOD THREAT. ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT, STUCK CLOSE TO A
GUIDANCE MIX. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP IT ON THE COOL SIDE (50S)
WITH 40S AT NIGHT. IN SUMMARY -- ONE OF THOSE RAW/WET DAYS.

TUESDAY: LOOKS LIKE A SMALL SECONDARY LOW WILL PASS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. AS IT DOES SO, RAIN SHOULD START COMING TO AN
END. MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON - ESPECIALLY THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, BUT OTHERWISE LOTS OF CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN
ON THE COOLER SIDE COMPARED TO NORMAL - MORE 50S.

WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY & FRIDAY: NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE FROM DAY TO DAY.
LOOKS LIKE WE`LL SEE A BIG BOWLING BALL CUT-OFF LOW SET UP
SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN CANADA. GFS AND EURO ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT
IN EXACT LOCATION (EURO A BIT MORE SOUTH), BUT THE NET RESULT IS
THE SAME. LOTS OF CLOUDS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE -1 TO -4C RANGE,
THUS IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE HIGHER SUMMITS (ABOVE 2000FT)
TO SEE SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS. COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION OVER THE 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD AT THOSE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
NOTHING TO REALLY LATCH ONTO WITH REGARD TO IF THERE WILL BE A
PREFERRED TIME FOR SHOWERS VS PREFERRED TIME OF BRIEF DRY PERIODS.
AS SUCH, JUST PAINTED IN A LOT OF 30-50% POPS THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY TRENDING VFR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. ANY REMAINING MVFR CEILINGS (MAINLY
EASTERN VERMONT) WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE EXPECTING A RATHER QUIET AFTERNOON. PERHAPS SOME SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 15KT. QUIET/CLEAR/LIGHT WINDS/VFR OVERNIGHT. SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATED A CHANCE OF SOME IFR CEILINGS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN NY, PRIMARILY SLK TERMINAL. AT THIS POINT, HAVE NOT
INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
QUICKLY TRAVERSE ACROSS NORTHERN NY BETWEEN 14-17Z AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT BETWEEN 16-19Z. AT THIS POINT HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED "VCSH" IN THE TAFS, BUT THEY COULD BRING A BRIEF (<2 HOUR
PERIOD) OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS THEY MOVE PAST ANY SPECIFIC
LOCATION. WITH AND IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THESE SHOWERS,
SURFACE WINDS WILL KICK AROUND TO NORTHWEST, STRENGTHEN AND GET
RATHER GUSTY. THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z, AND
SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KT IN MANY LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR, WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
MVFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ011-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 171936
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
336 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING.
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON
SATURDAY AND BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SUNSHINE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1241 PM EDT FRIDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING BREAKS
DEVELOPING IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

ON SATURDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...AND
SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INDICATED FOR NORTHERN VERMONT...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WIND FIELDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTERS EXPECTED BE A BIT BELOW ZERO ACROSS VERMONT. SO SOME OF
THE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN SPOTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.

SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SATURDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN +6 AND +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH
WITH FULL SUN SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...OVERALL THOUGHTS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK
HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH THIS REFRESH OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. 12Z
GUIDANCE STILL SIMILAR WITH ONE ANOTHER AND RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS
RUNS AND INDICATING A RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOLISH WEEK COMING
UP. MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BE COMING THROUGH MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY, AND WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL (PERHAPS 1" IN PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS) AND
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS).  DAILY DETAILS ARE BELOW...

MONDAY:
GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTRY WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PUSHING FAIRLY QUICKLY
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS LOW REACHES OUR
LATITUDE, A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW-MID LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND HELPS
TO TRANSPORT A PRETTY DEEP RIVER OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THIS MOISTURE HAS BOTH GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
ORIGINS, AND AS A RESULT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
APPROACHING 1" (WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). AT
THE SAME TIME, THE 0.5 TO 1KM WINDS STRENGTHEN INTO THE 45-55KT
RANGE. GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AND INDICATIONS OF AN
INVERSION AROUND MOUNTAIN SUMMIT LEVEL, THIS INDICATES TO ME THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SOME OF THOSE STRONG WINDS TO GET FUNNELED BETWEEN
THOSE SUMMITS AND INVERSION AND RESULT IN SOME STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. TRIED TO BEEF UP THE
WIND GUSTS TO SHOW SOME GUSTS OF 40-50MPH. ON THE RAINFALL ASPECT,
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG JET SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS COULD BE PRETTY STRONG - PERHAPS AN 1" OR SO ON THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS AND PERHAPS THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE `DACKS, HOWEVER SHADOWING FROM THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD KEEP QPF LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND
SHADOWING FROM THE GREENS WILL KEEP THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION A
BIT DRIER. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME SHARP RISES ON SOME RIVERS.
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE LATER GUIDANCE TO SEE IF THERE WILL BE ANY
SORT OF FLOOD THREAT. ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT, STUCK CLOSE TO A
GUIDANCE MIX. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP IT ON THE COOL SIDE (50S)
WITH 40S AT NIGHT. IN SUMMARY -- ONE OF THOSE RAW/WET DAYS.

TUESDAY: LOOKS LIKE A SMALL SECONDARY LOW WILL PASS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. AS IT DOES SO, RAIN SHOULD START COMING TO AN
END. MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON - ESPECIALLY THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, BUT OTHERWISE LOTS OF CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES AGAIN
ON THE COOLER SIDE COMPARED TO NORMAL - MORE 50S.

WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY & FRIDAY: NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE FROM DAY TO DAY.
LOOKS LIKE WE`LL SEE A BIG BOWLING BALL CUT-OFF LOW SET UP
SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN CANADA. GFS AND EURO ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT
IN EXACT LOCATION (EURO A BIT MORE SOUTH), BUT THE NET RESULT IS
THE SAME. LOTS OF CLOUDS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE -1 TO -4C RANGE,
THUS IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE HIGHER SUMMITS (ABOVE 2000FT)
TO SEE SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS. COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION OVER THE 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD AT THOSE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
NOTHING TO REALLY LATCH ONTO WITH REGARD TO IF THERE WILL BE A
PREFERRED TIME FOR SHOWERS VS PREFERRED TIME OF BRIEF DRY PERIODS.
AS SUCH, JUST PAINTED IN A LOT OF 30-50% POPS THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY TRENDING VFR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. ANY REMAINING MVFR CEILINGS (MAINLY
EASTERN VERMONT) WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE EXPECTING A RATHER QUIET AFTERNOON. PERHAPS SOME SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 15KT. QUIET/CLEAR/LIGHT WINDS/VFR OVERNIGHT. SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATED A CHANCE OF SOME IFR CEILINGS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN NY, PRIMARILY SLK TERMINAL. AT THIS POINT, HAVE NOT
INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
QUICKLY TRAVERSE ACROSS NORTHERN NY BETWEEN 14-17Z AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT BETWEEN 16-19Z. AT THIS POINT HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED "VCSH" IN THE TAFS, BUT THEY COULD BRING A BRIEF (<2 HOUR
PERIOD) OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS THEY MOVE PAST ANY SPECIFIC
LOCATION. WITH AND IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THESE SHOWERS,
SURFACE WINDS WILL KICK AROUND TO NORTHWEST, STRENGTHEN AND GET
RATHER GUSTY. THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z, AND
SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KT IN MANY LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR, WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
MVFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ011-012.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH



000
FXUS61 KALY 171739
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
139 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MAINLY IN AREAS NORTH OF ALBANY. IN IT WAKE THERE WILL BE
A PERIOD OF BRISK WINDS... THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 127 PM EDT...THE ISOLD SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND WE HAVE REMOVED THE POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES BUT THAT
SHOULD DO IT...AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH ERN
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PESKY AND WE DROPPED TEMPS A
COUPLE DEGREES...THOUGH SOME THIN SPOTS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN THE
CHAMPLAIN/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
TRENDS TO PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC TROUGH...AND
THE WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
TO M60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S TO L60S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TONIGHT...ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS SOUTH OF ALBANY WILL GIVE AWAY TO
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AS A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER WITH 30S ACROSS THE TERRAIN AND
LOWER HALF OF THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MDLS SUITE (GFS/GEM/NAM/12UTC ECMWF) IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ONLY SOME 6 HRS TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH ARRIVAL OF MON MRNG
SYSTEM. RANGES FROM 06UTC IN GEM/NAM TO 18UTC IN PVS ECMWF WITH GFS
THE MID POINT AT 12UTC. WILL USE GFS FOR TIMING SUN NT INTO MON.

OTHERWISE SAT BEGINS W/WK HIGH PRESSURE FM OH VLY TO DELMARVA...AND
CDFNT DROPPING SE FM E GRTLKS. WHILE SOME KIND OF WK WIND SHIFT
LINE IS ALREADY E OF FCA...MAIN CDFNT IS ON YOW-TOL LN AT 12UTC...BUT
BY 18UTC GFS HAS IT JUST WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR...NAM A TAD SLOWER.
MAIN FEATURE SAT WILL BE POWERFUL 500HPA SHORT WV DIVING SE ACROSS
N NY AND NEW ENG...AND RESULTING RAPID CYCLOGENESIS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WELL E OF FCA. HWVR IT WILL LEAVE US IN THE GRADIENT BTWN
BUILDING ONTARIO 1026HPA SFC HIGH AND DEEPENING SFC LOW IN GULF OF
MAINE. RESULT COULD BE A PERIOD OF BRISK TO STRONG WINDS SAT AFTN
AND EARLY AFT FM THE NORTH. MOST OF THE GUID IS RATHER MOISTURE
STARVED AND THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS AND -SHRA
MAINLY N OF MHWK VLY. ITS COLD CORE QUICKLY PASSES ACROSS THE N
TIER SAT...AND HAS ONLY MODEST IMPACT ON TEMP PROFILE FURTHER
S...HIGHS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRI...EXCEPT IN THE FAR NW FCA
WHERE THEY WILL BE 5-10 DEG COOLER...60S IN MOST AREAS SOME MID
AND UPPER 50S IN N ADRDKS.

SAT NT AND SUN WILL BRING SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDING SE FM OTTAWA
VLY. WIND GRAD WILL QUICKLY RELAX AND DECOUPLE. WITH A COOL IDEAL
(FOR APRIL) RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A GEM AS 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS E ACROSS RGN AND SFC
HIGH IS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW RH...LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG SUN
AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS.

CONDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS 500HPA CUT OFF MOVES EAST INTO
THE N GRT PLAINS AND RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AT THE SFC DEEPENING
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE GRTLKS WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING S INTO OH VLY AND A WMFNT SE FM CMH-HAT. SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH INCREASING WIND GRADIENT ACROSS FCA SUN NT.

CLOUDS WILL INCR SUN NT AND RAIN ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. DURING MON
MOST OF THE GUID DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW IN OR NR I95 CORRIDOR
ALONG THE PRIMARY SYSTEMS TRIPLE POINT...ENHANCING THE MOISTURE
FEED INTO THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEMS
ORGANIZATION VARIES AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THEY ALL AGREE ON ITS
FORMING.

MOST OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES PRODUCE AN INCH OR SO QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH OUTLIERS AROUND 2 INCHES AND 0.3 RESPECTIVELY.
MONDAY WILL BE A RAINY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT
FIRST...TRENDING COOLER THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A 500HPA CUTOFF
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND
CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

FIRST MONDAY INTO TUES MORNING THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL LIFT NE
THROUGH THE REGION AS A COASTAL LOW LIFTS NE ALONG THE I95
CORRIDOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN..TAPING OFF TUES
MRNG. THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHORT WVS AND A SERIES OF CDFNTS WILL
CROSS THE RGN...BRINGING PERIODS OF -SHRA...AND POSSIBLE -SHSN
HIR TRRN. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED...BUT
THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF PC CONDS. SINCE ITS A KINDA GENERIC
COOL...SHOWERY PERIOD...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 500HPA CUTOFF
AND MOST OF THE GUID IS IN AGREEMENT ON THAT SCENARIO...WILL
POPULATE WITH WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROGUH ABOUT 20Z TO 21Z...BUT AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN WITH VFR CONTIONS THROUGH TONIGHT (MAINLY P6SM SKC
FOR TONIGHT). ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THETAF
SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 15Z AND 17Z. LITTLE WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS COLD AND HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 18Z SATURDAY. THE
MAIN IMPACT OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE A RAPID SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WINDS...WITH SPEED INCREASING TO 12 TO 16 KTS AND GUSTS
OF 22 TO 28 KTS.

BEFORE THEN...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST THUIS
AFTERNOON AT THE TAF SITES AT 8 TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KTS. WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT...AND FREQUENT GUSTY WINDS GREATER
THAN 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAYBE NECESSARY...

SHOWERS WILL EXITED THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN. RH VALUES LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON....HWVR THE LIGHT RAINFALL
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS...AS RH VALUES
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT.

SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION WITH SOME
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH WITH LIGHT RAINFALL. IN ITS
WAKE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE AS
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. RH
VALUES WILL FALL TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT...AND COMBINED WITH THE WINDS
FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHER THAN SOME
LIGHT RAIN WITH A DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM THIS MORNING AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT...CONDITIONS
WILL BE DRY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SATELLITE AND SURVEY DATA FROM COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE
IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE
COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO
SNOW MELT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHERE CURRENTLY AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED...AND COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER



000
FXUS61 KALY 171739
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
139 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MAINLY IN AREAS NORTH OF ALBANY. IN IT WAKE THERE WILL BE
A PERIOD OF BRISK WINDS... THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 127 PM EDT...THE ISOLD SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND WE HAVE REMOVED THE POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES BUT THAT
SHOULD DO IT...AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH ERN
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PESKY AND WE DROPPED TEMPS A
COUPLE DEGREES...THOUGH SOME THIN SPOTS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN THE
CHAMPLAIN/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
TRENDS TO PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC TROUGH...AND
THE WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
TO M60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S TO L60S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TONIGHT...ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS SOUTH OF ALBANY WILL GIVE AWAY TO
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AS A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER WITH 30S ACROSS THE TERRAIN AND
LOWER HALF OF THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MDLS SUITE (GFS/GEM/NAM/12UTC ECMWF) IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ONLY SOME 6 HRS TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH ARRIVAL OF MON MRNG
SYSTEM. RANGES FROM 06UTC IN GEM/NAM TO 18UTC IN PVS ECMWF WITH GFS
THE MID POINT AT 12UTC. WILL USE GFS FOR TIMING SUN NT INTO MON.

OTHERWISE SAT BEGINS W/WK HIGH PRESSURE FM OH VLY TO DELMARVA...AND
CDFNT DROPPING SE FM E GRTLKS. WHILE SOME KIND OF WK WIND SHIFT
LINE IS ALREADY E OF FCA...MAIN CDFNT IS ON YOW-TOL LN AT 12UTC...BUT
BY 18UTC GFS HAS IT JUST WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR...NAM A TAD SLOWER.
MAIN FEATURE SAT WILL BE POWERFUL 500HPA SHORT WV DIVING SE ACROSS
N NY AND NEW ENG...AND RESULTING RAPID CYCLOGENESIS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WELL E OF FCA. HWVR IT WILL LEAVE US IN THE GRADIENT BTWN
BUILDING ONTARIO 1026HPA SFC HIGH AND DEEPENING SFC LOW IN GULF OF
MAINE. RESULT COULD BE A PERIOD OF BRISK TO STRONG WINDS SAT AFTN
AND EARLY AFT FM THE NORTH. MOST OF THE GUID IS RATHER MOISTURE
STARVED AND THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS AND -SHRA
MAINLY N OF MHWK VLY. ITS COLD CORE QUICKLY PASSES ACROSS THE N
TIER SAT...AND HAS ONLY MODEST IMPACT ON TEMP PROFILE FURTHER
S...HIGHS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRI...EXCEPT IN THE FAR NW FCA
WHERE THEY WILL BE 5-10 DEG COOLER...60S IN MOST AREAS SOME MID
AND UPPER 50S IN N ADRDKS.

SAT NT AND SUN WILL BRING SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDING SE FM OTTAWA
VLY. WIND GRAD WILL QUICKLY RELAX AND DECOUPLE. WITH A COOL IDEAL
(FOR APRIL) RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A GEM AS 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS E ACROSS RGN AND SFC
HIGH IS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW RH...LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG SUN
AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS.

CONDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS 500HPA CUT OFF MOVES EAST INTO
THE N GRT PLAINS AND RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AT THE SFC DEEPENING
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE GRTLKS WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING S INTO OH VLY AND A WMFNT SE FM CMH-HAT. SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH INCREASING WIND GRADIENT ACROSS FCA SUN NT.

CLOUDS WILL INCR SUN NT AND RAIN ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. DURING MON
MOST OF THE GUID DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW IN OR NR I95 CORRIDOR
ALONG THE PRIMARY SYSTEMS TRIPLE POINT...ENHANCING THE MOISTURE
FEED INTO THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEMS
ORGANIZATION VARIES AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THEY ALL AGREE ON ITS
FORMING.

MOST OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES PRODUCE AN INCH OR SO QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH OUTLIERS AROUND 2 INCHES AND 0.3 RESPECTIVELY.
MONDAY WILL BE A RAINY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT
FIRST...TRENDING COOLER THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A 500HPA CUTOFF
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND
CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

FIRST MONDAY INTO TUES MORNING THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL LIFT NE
THROUGH THE REGION AS A COASTAL LOW LIFTS NE ALONG THE I95
CORRIDOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN..TAPING OFF TUES
MRNG. THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHORT WVS AND A SERIES OF CDFNTS WILL
CROSS THE RGN...BRINGING PERIODS OF -SHRA...AND POSSIBLE -SHSN
HIR TRRN. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED...BUT
THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF PC CONDS. SINCE ITS A KINDA GENERIC
COOL...SHOWERY PERIOD...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 500HPA CUTOFF
AND MOST OF THE GUID IS IN AGREEMENT ON THAT SCENARIO...WILL
POPULATE WITH WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF
SITES THROGUH ABOUT 20Z TO 21Z...BUT AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN WITH VFR CONTIONS THROUGH TONIGHT (MAINLY P6SM SKC
FOR TONIGHT). ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THETAF
SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 15Z AND 17Z. LITTLE WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS COLD AND HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 18Z SATURDAY. THE
MAIN IMPACT OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE A RAPID SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WINDS...WITH SPEED INCREASING TO 12 TO 16 KTS AND GUSTS
OF 22 TO 28 KTS.

BEFORE THEN...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST THUIS
AFTERNOON AT THE TAF SITES AT 8 TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KTS. WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT...AND FREQUENT GUSTY WINDS GREATER
THAN 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAYBE NECESSARY...

SHOWERS WILL EXITED THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN. RH VALUES LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON....HWVR THE LIGHT RAINFALL
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS...AS RH VALUES
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT.

SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION WITH SOME
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH WITH LIGHT RAINFALL. IN ITS
WAKE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE AS
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. RH
VALUES WILL FALL TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT...AND COMBINED WITH THE WINDS
FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHER THAN SOME
LIGHT RAIN WITH A DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM THIS MORNING AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT...CONDITIONS
WILL BE DRY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SATELLITE AND SURVEY DATA FROM COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE
IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE
COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO
SNOW MELT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHERE CURRENTLY AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED...AND COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 171728
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MAINLY IN AREAS NORTH OF ALBANY. IN IT WAKE THERE WILL BE
A PERIOD OF BRISK WINDS... THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 127 PM EDT...THE ISOLD SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND WE HAVE REMOVED THE POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES BUT THAT
SHOULD DO IT...AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH ERN
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PESKY AND WE DROPPED TEMPS A
COUPLE DEGREES...THOUGH SOME THIN SPOTS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN THE
CHAMPLAIN/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
TRENDS TO PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC TROUGH...AND
THE WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
TO M60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S TO L60S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TONIGHT...ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS SOUTH OF ALBANY WILL GIVE AWAY TO
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AS A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER WITH 30S ACROSS THE TERRAIN AND
LOWER HALF OF THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MDLS SUITE (GFS/GEM/NAM/12UTC ECMWF) IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ONLY SOME 6 HRS TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH ARRIVAL OF MON MRNG
SYSTEM. RANGES FROM 06UTC IN GEM/NAM TO 18UTC IN PVS ECMWF WITH GFS
THE MID POINT AT 12UTC. WILL USE GFS FOR TIMING SUN NT INTO MON.

OTHERWISE SAT BEGINS W/WK HIGH PRESSURE FM OH VLY TO DELMARVA...AND
CDFNT DROPPING SE FM E GRTLKS. WHILE SOME KIND OF WK WIND SHIFT
LINE IS ALREADY E OF FCA...MAIN CDFNT IS ON YOW-TOL LN AT 12UTC...BUT
BY 18UTC GFS HAS IT JUST WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR...NAM A TAD SLOWER.
MAIN FEATURE SAT WILL BE POWERFUL 500HPA SHORT WV DIVING SE ACROSS
N NY AND NEW ENG...AND RESULTING RAPID CYCLOGENESIS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WELL E OF FCA. HWVR IT WILL LEAVE US IN THE GRADIENT BTWN
BUILDING ONTARIO 1026HPA SFC HIGH AND DEEPENING SFC LOW IN GULF OF
MAINE. RESULT COULD BE A PERIOD OF BRISK TO STRONG WINDS SAT AFTN
AND EARLY AFT FM THE NORTH. MOST OF THE GUID IS RATHER MOISTURE
STARVED AND THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS AND -SHRA
MAINLY N OF MHWK VLY. ITS COLD CORE QUICKLY PASSES ACROSS THE N
TIER SAT...AND HAS ONLY MODEST IMPACT ON TEMP PROFILE FURTHER
S...HIGHS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRI...EXCEPT IN THE FAR NW FCA
WHERE THEY WILL BE 5-10 DEG COOLER...60S IN MOST AREAS SOME MID
AND UPPER 50S IN N ADRDKS.

SAT NT AND SUN WILL BRING SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDING SE FM OTTAWA
VLY. WIND GRAD WILL QUICKLY RELAX AND DECOUPLE. WITH A COOL IDEAL
(FOR APRIL) RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A GEM AS 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS E ACROSS RGN AND SFC
HIGH IS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW RH...LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG SUN
AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS.

CONDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS 500HPA CUT OFF MOVES EAST INTO
THE N GRT PLAINS AND RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AT THE SFC DEEPENING
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE GRTLKS WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING S INTO OH VLY AND A WMFNT SE FM CMH-HAT. SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH INCREASING WIND GRADIENT ACROSS FCA SUN NT.

CLOUDS WILL INCR SUN NT AND RAIN ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. DURING MON
MOST OF THE GUID DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW IN OR NR I95 CORRIDOR
ALONG THE PRIMARY SYSTEMS TRIPLE POINT...ENHANCING THE MOISTURE
FEED INTO THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEMS
ORGANIZATION VARIES AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THEY ALL AGREE ON ITS
FORMING.

MOST OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES PRODUCE AN INCH OR SO QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH OUTLIERS AROUND 2 INCHES AND 0.3 RESPECTIVELY.
MONDAY WILL BE A RAINY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT
FIRST...TRENDING COOLER THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A 500HPA CUTOFF
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND
CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

FIRST MONDAY INTO TUES MORNING THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL LIFT NE
THROUGH THE REGION AS A COASTAL LOW LIFTS NE ALONG THE I95
CORRIDOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN..TAPING OFF TUES
MRNG. THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHORT WVS AND A SERIES OF CDFNTS WILL
CROSS THE RGN...BRINGING PERIODS OF -SHRA...AND POSSIBLE -SHSN
HIR TRRN. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED...BUT
THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF PC CONDS. SINCE ITS A KINDA GENERIC
COOL...SHOWERY PERIOD...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 500HPA CUTOFF
AND MOST OF THE GUID IS IN AGREEMENT ON THAT SCENARIO...WILL
POPULATE WITH WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS WAS APPROACHING THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND SHORTLY. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH THE CHANCE FOR MVFR VIS WITHIN THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS...THE SURFACE WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18
KT THROUGH THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO WESTERLY DIRECTION AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS WITH A DECREASE IN
SHOWER COVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT...AND FREQUENT GUSTY WINDS GREATER
THAN 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAYBE NECESSARY...

SHOWERS WILL EXITED THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN. RH VALUES LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON....HWVR THE LIGHT RAINFALL
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS...AS RH VALUES
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT.

SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION WITH SOME
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH WITH LIGHT RAINFALL. IN ITS
WAKE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE AS
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. RH
VALUES WILL FALL TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT...AND COMBINED WITH THE WINDS
FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHER THAN SOME
LIGHT RAIN WITH A DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM THIS MORNING AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT...CONDITIONS
WILL BE DRY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SATELLITE AND SURVEY DATA FROM COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE
IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE
COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO
SNOW MELT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHERE CURRENTLY AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED...AND COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 171728
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MAINLY IN AREAS NORTH OF ALBANY. IN IT WAKE THERE WILL BE
A PERIOD OF BRISK WINDS... THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 127 PM EDT...THE ISOLD SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND WE HAVE REMOVED THE POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES BUT THAT
SHOULD DO IT...AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH ERN
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PESKY AND WE DROPPED TEMPS A
COUPLE DEGREES...THOUGH SOME THIN SPOTS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN THE
CHAMPLAIN/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
TRENDS TO PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC TROUGH...AND
THE WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
TO M60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S TO L60S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TONIGHT...ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS SOUTH OF ALBANY WILL GIVE AWAY TO
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AS A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER WITH 30S ACROSS THE TERRAIN AND
LOWER HALF OF THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MDLS SUITE (GFS/GEM/NAM/12UTC ECMWF) IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ONLY SOME 6 HRS TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH ARRIVAL OF MON MRNG
SYSTEM. RANGES FROM 06UTC IN GEM/NAM TO 18UTC IN PVS ECMWF WITH GFS
THE MID POINT AT 12UTC. WILL USE GFS FOR TIMING SUN NT INTO MON.

OTHERWISE SAT BEGINS W/WK HIGH PRESSURE FM OH VLY TO DELMARVA...AND
CDFNT DROPPING SE FM E GRTLKS. WHILE SOME KIND OF WK WIND SHIFT
LINE IS ALREADY E OF FCA...MAIN CDFNT IS ON YOW-TOL LN AT 12UTC...BUT
BY 18UTC GFS HAS IT JUST WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR...NAM A TAD SLOWER.
MAIN FEATURE SAT WILL BE POWERFUL 500HPA SHORT WV DIVING SE ACROSS
N NY AND NEW ENG...AND RESULTING RAPID CYCLOGENESIS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WELL E OF FCA. HWVR IT WILL LEAVE US IN THE GRADIENT BTWN
BUILDING ONTARIO 1026HPA SFC HIGH AND DEEPENING SFC LOW IN GULF OF
MAINE. RESULT COULD BE A PERIOD OF BRISK TO STRONG WINDS SAT AFTN
AND EARLY AFT FM THE NORTH. MOST OF THE GUID IS RATHER MOISTURE
STARVED AND THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS AND -SHRA
MAINLY N OF MHWK VLY. ITS COLD CORE QUICKLY PASSES ACROSS THE N
TIER SAT...AND HAS ONLY MODEST IMPACT ON TEMP PROFILE FURTHER
S...HIGHS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRI...EXCEPT IN THE FAR NW FCA
WHERE THEY WILL BE 5-10 DEG COOLER...60S IN MOST AREAS SOME MID
AND UPPER 50S IN N ADRDKS.

SAT NT AND SUN WILL BRING SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDING SE FM OTTAWA
VLY. WIND GRAD WILL QUICKLY RELAX AND DECOUPLE. WITH A COOL IDEAL
(FOR APRIL) RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A GEM AS 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS E ACROSS RGN AND SFC
HIGH IS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW RH...LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG SUN
AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS.

CONDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS 500HPA CUT OFF MOVES EAST INTO
THE N GRT PLAINS AND RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AT THE SFC DEEPENING
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE GRTLKS WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING S INTO OH VLY AND A WMFNT SE FM CMH-HAT. SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH INCREASING WIND GRADIENT ACROSS FCA SUN NT.

CLOUDS WILL INCR SUN NT AND RAIN ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. DURING MON
MOST OF THE GUID DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW IN OR NR I95 CORRIDOR
ALONG THE PRIMARY SYSTEMS TRIPLE POINT...ENHANCING THE MOISTURE
FEED INTO THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEMS
ORGANIZATION VARIES AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THEY ALL AGREE ON ITS
FORMING.

MOST OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES PRODUCE AN INCH OR SO QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH OUTLIERS AROUND 2 INCHES AND 0.3 RESPECTIVELY.
MONDAY WILL BE A RAINY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT
FIRST...TRENDING COOLER THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A 500HPA CUTOFF
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND
CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

FIRST MONDAY INTO TUES MORNING THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL LIFT NE
THROUGH THE REGION AS A COASTAL LOW LIFTS NE ALONG THE I95
CORRIDOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN..TAPING OFF TUES
MRNG. THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHORT WVS AND A SERIES OF CDFNTS WILL
CROSS THE RGN...BRINGING PERIODS OF -SHRA...AND POSSIBLE -SHSN
HIR TRRN. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED...BUT
THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF PC CONDS. SINCE ITS A KINDA GENERIC
COOL...SHOWERY PERIOD...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 500HPA CUTOFF
AND MOST OF THE GUID IS IN AGREEMENT ON THAT SCENARIO...WILL
POPULATE WITH WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS WAS APPROACHING THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND SHORTLY. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH THE CHANCE FOR MVFR VIS WITHIN THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS...THE SURFACE WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18
KT THROUGH THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO WESTERLY DIRECTION AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS WITH A DECREASE IN
SHOWER COVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT...AND FREQUENT GUSTY WINDS GREATER
THAN 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAYBE NECESSARY...

SHOWERS WILL EXITED THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN. RH VALUES LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON....HWVR THE LIGHT RAINFALL
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS...AS RH VALUES
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT.

SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION WITH SOME
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH WITH LIGHT RAINFALL. IN ITS
WAKE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE AS
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. RH
VALUES WILL FALL TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT...AND COMBINED WITH THE WINDS
FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHER THAN SOME
LIGHT RAIN WITH A DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM THIS MORNING AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT...CONDITIONS
WILL BE DRY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SATELLITE AND SURVEY DATA FROM COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE
IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE
COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO
SNOW MELT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHERE CURRENTLY AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED...AND COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 171728
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MAINLY IN AREAS NORTH OF ALBANY. IN IT WAKE THERE WILL BE
A PERIOD OF BRISK WINDS... THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 127 PM EDT...THE ISOLD SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND WE HAVE REMOVED THE POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES BUT THAT
SHOULD DO IT...AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH ERN
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PESKY AND WE DROPPED TEMPS A
COUPLE DEGREES...THOUGH SOME THIN SPOTS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN THE
CHAMPLAIN/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
TRENDS TO PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC TROUGH...AND
THE WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
TO M60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S TO L60S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TONIGHT...ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS SOUTH OF ALBANY WILL GIVE AWAY TO
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AS A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER WITH 30S ACROSS THE TERRAIN AND
LOWER HALF OF THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MDLS SUITE (GFS/GEM/NAM/12UTC ECMWF) IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ONLY SOME 6 HRS TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH ARRIVAL OF MON MRNG
SYSTEM. RANGES FROM 06UTC IN GEM/NAM TO 18UTC IN PVS ECMWF WITH GFS
THE MID POINT AT 12UTC. WILL USE GFS FOR TIMING SUN NT INTO MON.

OTHERWISE SAT BEGINS W/WK HIGH PRESSURE FM OH VLY TO DELMARVA...AND
CDFNT DROPPING SE FM E GRTLKS. WHILE SOME KIND OF WK WIND SHIFT
LINE IS ALREADY E OF FCA...MAIN CDFNT IS ON YOW-TOL LN AT 12UTC...BUT
BY 18UTC GFS HAS IT JUST WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR...NAM A TAD SLOWER.
MAIN FEATURE SAT WILL BE POWERFUL 500HPA SHORT WV DIVING SE ACROSS
N NY AND NEW ENG...AND RESULTING RAPID CYCLOGENESIS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WELL E OF FCA. HWVR IT WILL LEAVE US IN THE GRADIENT BTWN
BUILDING ONTARIO 1026HPA SFC HIGH AND DEEPENING SFC LOW IN GULF OF
MAINE. RESULT COULD BE A PERIOD OF BRISK TO STRONG WINDS SAT AFTN
AND EARLY AFT FM THE NORTH. MOST OF THE GUID IS RATHER MOISTURE
STARVED AND THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS AND -SHRA
MAINLY N OF MHWK VLY. ITS COLD CORE QUICKLY PASSES ACROSS THE N
TIER SAT...AND HAS ONLY MODEST IMPACT ON TEMP PROFILE FURTHER
S...HIGHS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRI...EXCEPT IN THE FAR NW FCA
WHERE THEY WILL BE 5-10 DEG COOLER...60S IN MOST AREAS SOME MID
AND UPPER 50S IN N ADRDKS.

SAT NT AND SUN WILL BRING SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDING SE FM OTTAWA
VLY. WIND GRAD WILL QUICKLY RELAX AND DECOUPLE. WITH A COOL IDEAL
(FOR APRIL) RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A GEM AS 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS E ACROSS RGN AND SFC
HIGH IS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW RH...LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG SUN
AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS.

CONDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS 500HPA CUT OFF MOVES EAST INTO
THE N GRT PLAINS AND RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AT THE SFC DEEPENING
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE GRTLKS WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING S INTO OH VLY AND A WMFNT SE FM CMH-HAT. SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH INCREASING WIND GRADIENT ACROSS FCA SUN NT.

CLOUDS WILL INCR SUN NT AND RAIN ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. DURING MON
MOST OF THE GUID DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW IN OR NR I95 CORRIDOR
ALONG THE PRIMARY SYSTEMS TRIPLE POINT...ENHANCING THE MOISTURE
FEED INTO THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEMS
ORGANIZATION VARIES AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THEY ALL AGREE ON ITS
FORMING.

MOST OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES PRODUCE AN INCH OR SO QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH OUTLIERS AROUND 2 INCHES AND 0.3 RESPECTIVELY.
MONDAY WILL BE A RAINY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT
FIRST...TRENDING COOLER THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A 500HPA CUTOFF
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND
CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

FIRST MONDAY INTO TUES MORNING THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL LIFT NE
THROUGH THE REGION AS A COASTAL LOW LIFTS NE ALONG THE I95
CORRIDOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN..TAPING OFF TUES
MRNG. THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHORT WVS AND A SERIES OF CDFNTS WILL
CROSS THE RGN...BRINGING PERIODS OF -SHRA...AND POSSIBLE -SHSN
HIR TRRN. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED...BUT
THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF PC CONDS. SINCE ITS A KINDA GENERIC
COOL...SHOWERY PERIOD...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 500HPA CUTOFF
AND MOST OF THE GUID IS IN AGREEMENT ON THAT SCENARIO...WILL
POPULATE WITH WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS WAS APPROACHING THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND SHORTLY. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH THE CHANCE FOR MVFR VIS WITHIN THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS...THE SURFACE WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18
KT THROUGH THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO WESTERLY DIRECTION AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS WITH A DECREASE IN
SHOWER COVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT...AND FREQUENT GUSTY WINDS GREATER
THAN 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAYBE NECESSARY...

SHOWERS WILL EXITED THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN. RH VALUES LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON....HWVR THE LIGHT RAINFALL
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS...AS RH VALUES
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT.

SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION WITH SOME
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH WITH LIGHT RAINFALL. IN ITS
WAKE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE AS
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. RH
VALUES WILL FALL TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT...AND COMBINED WITH THE WINDS
FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHER THAN SOME
LIGHT RAIN WITH A DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM THIS MORNING AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT...CONDITIONS
WILL BE DRY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SATELLITE AND SURVEY DATA FROM COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE
IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE
COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO
SNOW MELT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHERE CURRENTLY AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED...AND COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER



000
FXUS61 KALY 171728
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MAINLY IN AREAS NORTH OF ALBANY. IN IT WAKE THERE WILL BE
A PERIOD OF BRISK WINDS... THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 127 PM EDT...THE ISOLD SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND WE HAVE REMOVED THE POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES BUT THAT
SHOULD DO IT...AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH ERN
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN PESKY AND WE DROPPED TEMPS A
COUPLE DEGREES...THOUGH SOME THIN SPOTS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN THE
CHAMPLAIN/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
TRENDS TO PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC TROUGH...AND
THE WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
TO M60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S TO L60S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TONIGHT...ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS SOUTH OF ALBANY WILL GIVE AWAY TO
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AS A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER WITH 30S ACROSS THE TERRAIN AND
LOWER HALF OF THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MDLS SUITE (GFS/GEM/NAM/12UTC ECMWF) IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ONLY SOME 6 HRS TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH ARRIVAL OF MON MRNG
SYSTEM. RANGES FROM 06UTC IN GEM/NAM TO 18UTC IN PVS ECMWF WITH GFS
THE MID POINT AT 12UTC. WILL USE GFS FOR TIMING SUN NT INTO MON.

OTHERWISE SAT BEGINS W/WK HIGH PRESSURE FM OH VLY TO DELMARVA...AND
CDFNT DROPPING SE FM E GRTLKS. WHILE SOME KIND OF WK WIND SHIFT
LINE IS ALREADY E OF FCA...MAIN CDFNT IS ON YOW-TOL LN AT 12UTC...BUT
BY 18UTC GFS HAS IT JUST WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR...NAM A TAD SLOWER.
MAIN FEATURE SAT WILL BE POWERFUL 500HPA SHORT WV DIVING SE ACROSS
N NY AND NEW ENG...AND RESULTING RAPID CYCLOGENESIS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WELL E OF FCA. HWVR IT WILL LEAVE US IN THE GRADIENT BTWN
BUILDING ONTARIO 1026HPA SFC HIGH AND DEEPENING SFC LOW IN GULF OF
MAINE. RESULT COULD BE A PERIOD OF BRISK TO STRONG WINDS SAT AFTN
AND EARLY AFT FM THE NORTH. MOST OF THE GUID IS RATHER MOISTURE
STARVED AND THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS AND -SHRA
MAINLY N OF MHWK VLY. ITS COLD CORE QUICKLY PASSES ACROSS THE N
TIER SAT...AND HAS ONLY MODEST IMPACT ON TEMP PROFILE FURTHER
S...HIGHS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRI...EXCEPT IN THE FAR NW FCA
WHERE THEY WILL BE 5-10 DEG COOLER...60S IN MOST AREAS SOME MID
AND UPPER 50S IN N ADRDKS.

SAT NT AND SUN WILL BRING SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDING SE FM OTTAWA
VLY. WIND GRAD WILL QUICKLY RELAX AND DECOUPLE. WITH A COOL IDEAL
(FOR APRIL) RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A GEM AS 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS E ACROSS RGN AND SFC
HIGH IS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW RH...LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG SUN
AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS.

CONDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS 500HPA CUT OFF MOVES EAST INTO
THE N GRT PLAINS AND RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AT THE SFC DEEPENING
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE GRTLKS WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING S INTO OH VLY AND A WMFNT SE FM CMH-HAT. SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH INCREASING WIND GRADIENT ACROSS FCA SUN NT.

CLOUDS WILL INCR SUN NT AND RAIN ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. DURING MON
MOST OF THE GUID DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW IN OR NR I95 CORRIDOR
ALONG THE PRIMARY SYSTEMS TRIPLE POINT...ENHANCING THE MOISTURE
FEED INTO THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEMS
ORGANIZATION VARIES AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THEY ALL AGREE ON ITS
FORMING.

MOST OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES PRODUCE AN INCH OR SO QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH OUTLIERS AROUND 2 INCHES AND 0.3 RESPECTIVELY.
MONDAY WILL BE A RAINY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT
FIRST...TRENDING COOLER THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A 500HPA CUTOFF
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND
CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

FIRST MONDAY INTO TUES MORNING THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL LIFT NE
THROUGH THE REGION AS A COASTAL LOW LIFTS NE ALONG THE I95
CORRIDOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN..TAPING OFF TUES
MRNG. THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHORT WVS AND A SERIES OF CDFNTS WILL
CROSS THE RGN...BRINGING PERIODS OF -SHRA...AND POSSIBLE -SHSN
HIR TRRN. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED...BUT
THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF PC CONDS. SINCE ITS A KINDA GENERIC
COOL...SHOWERY PERIOD...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 500HPA CUTOFF
AND MOST OF THE GUID IS IN AGREEMENT ON THAT SCENARIO...WILL
POPULATE WITH WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS WAS APPROACHING THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND SHORTLY. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH THE CHANCE FOR MVFR VIS WITHIN THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS...THE SURFACE WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18
KT THROUGH THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO WESTERLY DIRECTION AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS WITH A DECREASE IN
SHOWER COVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT...AND FREQUENT GUSTY WINDS GREATER
THAN 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MAYBE NECESSARY...

SHOWERS WILL EXITED THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN. RH VALUES LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON....HWVR THE LIGHT RAINFALL
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS...AS RH VALUES
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT.

SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION WITH SOME
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH WITH LIGHT RAINFALL. IN ITS
WAKE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE AS
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. RH
VALUES WILL FALL TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT...AND COMBINED WITH THE WINDS
FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHER THAN SOME
LIGHT RAIN WITH A DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM THIS MORNING AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT...CONDITIONS
WILL BE DRY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SATELLITE AND SURVEY DATA FROM COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE
IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE
COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO
SNOW MELT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHERE CURRENTLY AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED...AND COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER



000
FXUS61 KBTV 171709
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
109 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING.
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON
SATURDAY AND BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SUNSHINE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1241 PM EDT FRIDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING BREAKS
DEVELOPING IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

ON SATURDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...AND
SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INDICATED FOR NORTHERN VERMONT...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WIND FIELDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTERS EXPECTED BE A BIT BELOW ZERO ACROSS VERMONT. SO SOME OF
THE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN SPOTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.

SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SATURDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN +6 AND +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH
WITH FULL SUN SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER LIKELY LASTING THROUGH ALL
OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW
AND SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD
FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM
DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF
40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PUSHING ON TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE
DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. UNFORTUNATELY THE UPPER LOW BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MIGHT EVEN RETROGRADE
NORTHWESTWARD A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO SO IT`S HARD TO
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S WHICH WILL SUPPORT
PTYPE AS RAIN DURING THE DAY, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATOP THE HIGHER SUMMITS, COULD BE ALL SNOW WITH
TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS. GOTTA LOVE
SPRING IN THE NORTH COUNTRY!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY TRENDING VFR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. ANY REMAINING MVFR CEILINGS (MAINLY
EASTERN VERMONT) WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE EXPECTING A RATHER QUIET AFTERNOON. PERHAPS SOME SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 15KT. QUIET/CLEAR/LIGHT WINDS/VFR OVERNIGHT. SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATED A CHANCE OF SOME IFR CEILINGS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN NY, PRIMARILY SLK TERMINAL. AT THIS POINT, HAVE NOT
INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
QUICKLY TRAVERSE ACROSS NORTHERN NY BETWEEN 14-17Z AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT BETWEEN 16-19Z. AT THIS POINT HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED "VCSH" IN THE TAFS, BUT THEY COULD BRING A BRIEF (<2 HOUR
PERIOD) OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS THEY MOVE PAST ANY SPECIFIC
LOCATION. WITH AND IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THESE SHOWERS,
SURFACE WINDS WILL KICK AROUND TO NORTHWEST, STRENGTHEN AND GET
RATHER GUSTY. THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z, AND
SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KT IN MANY LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR, WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
MVFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...NASH



000
FXUS61 KBTV 171709
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
109 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING.
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON
SATURDAY AND BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SUNSHINE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1241 PM EDT FRIDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING BREAKS
DEVELOPING IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

ON SATURDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...AND
SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INDICATED FOR NORTHERN VERMONT...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WIND FIELDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTERS EXPECTED BE A BIT BELOW ZERO ACROSS VERMONT. SO SOME OF
THE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN SPOTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.

SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SATURDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN +6 AND +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH
WITH FULL SUN SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER LIKELY LASTING THROUGH ALL
OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW
AND SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD
FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM
DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF
40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PUSHING ON TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE
DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. UNFORTUNATELY THE UPPER LOW BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MIGHT EVEN RETROGRADE
NORTHWESTWARD A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO SO IT`S HARD TO
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S WHICH WILL SUPPORT
PTYPE AS RAIN DURING THE DAY, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATOP THE HIGHER SUMMITS, COULD BE ALL SNOW WITH
TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS. GOTTA LOVE
SPRING IN THE NORTH COUNTRY!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY TRENDING VFR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. ANY REMAINING MVFR CEILINGS (MAINLY
EASTERN VERMONT) WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE EXPECTING A RATHER QUIET AFTERNOON. PERHAPS SOME SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 15KT. QUIET/CLEAR/LIGHT WINDS/VFR OVERNIGHT. SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATED A CHANCE OF SOME IFR CEILINGS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN NY, PRIMARILY SLK TERMINAL. AT THIS POINT, HAVE NOT
INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
QUICKLY TRAVERSE ACROSS NORTHERN NY BETWEEN 14-17Z AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT BETWEEN 16-19Z. AT THIS POINT HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED "VCSH" IN THE TAFS, BUT THEY COULD BRING A BRIEF (<2 HOUR
PERIOD) OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS THEY MOVE PAST ANY SPECIFIC
LOCATION. WITH AND IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THESE SHOWERS,
SURFACE WINDS WILL KICK AROUND TO NORTHWEST, STRENGTHEN AND GET
RATHER GUSTY. THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z, AND
SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KT IN MANY LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR, WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
MVFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...NASH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 171709
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
109 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING.
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON
SATURDAY AND BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SUNSHINE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1241 PM EDT FRIDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING BREAKS
DEVELOPING IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

ON SATURDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...AND
SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INDICATED FOR NORTHERN VERMONT...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WIND FIELDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTERS EXPECTED BE A BIT BELOW ZERO ACROSS VERMONT. SO SOME OF
THE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN SPOTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.

SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SATURDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN +6 AND +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH
WITH FULL SUN SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER LIKELY LASTING THROUGH ALL
OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW
AND SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD
FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM
DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF
40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PUSHING ON TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE
DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. UNFORTUNATELY THE UPPER LOW BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MIGHT EVEN RETROGRADE
NORTHWESTWARD A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO SO IT`S HARD TO
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S WHICH WILL SUPPORT
PTYPE AS RAIN DURING THE DAY, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATOP THE HIGHER SUMMITS, COULD BE ALL SNOW WITH
TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS. GOTTA LOVE
SPRING IN THE NORTH COUNTRY!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY TRENDING VFR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. ANY REMAINING MVFR CEILINGS (MAINLY
EASTERN VERMONT) WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE EXPECTING A RATHER QUIET AFTERNOON. PERHAPS SOME SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 15KT. QUIET/CLEAR/LIGHT WINDS/VFR OVERNIGHT. SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATED A CHANCE OF SOME IFR CEILINGS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN NY, PRIMARILY SLK TERMINAL. AT THIS POINT, HAVE NOT
INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
QUICKLY TRAVERSE ACROSS NORTHERN NY BETWEEN 14-17Z AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT BETWEEN 16-19Z. AT THIS POINT HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED "VCSH" IN THE TAFS, BUT THEY COULD BRING A BRIEF (<2 HOUR
PERIOD) OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS THEY MOVE PAST ANY SPECIFIC
LOCATION. WITH AND IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THESE SHOWERS,
SURFACE WINDS WILL KICK AROUND TO NORTHWEST, STRENGTHEN AND GET
RATHER GUSTY. THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z, AND
SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KT IN MANY LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR, WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
MVFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...NASH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 171709
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
109 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING.
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON
SATURDAY AND BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SUNSHINE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1241 PM EDT FRIDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING BREAKS
DEVELOPING IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

ON SATURDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...AND
SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INDICATED FOR NORTHERN VERMONT...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WIND FIELDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTERS EXPECTED BE A BIT BELOW ZERO ACROSS VERMONT. SO SOME OF
THE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN SPOTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.

SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SATURDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN +6 AND +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH
WITH FULL SUN SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER LIKELY LASTING THROUGH ALL
OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW
AND SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD
FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM
DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF
40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PUSHING ON TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE
DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. UNFORTUNATELY THE UPPER LOW BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MIGHT EVEN RETROGRADE
NORTHWESTWARD A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO SO IT`S HARD TO
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S WHICH WILL SUPPORT
PTYPE AS RAIN DURING THE DAY, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATOP THE HIGHER SUMMITS, COULD BE ALL SNOW WITH
TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS. GOTTA LOVE
SPRING IN THE NORTH COUNTRY!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY TRENDING VFR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. ANY REMAINING MVFR CEILINGS (MAINLY
EASTERN VERMONT) WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE EXPECTING A RATHER QUIET AFTERNOON. PERHAPS SOME SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 15KT. QUIET/CLEAR/LIGHT WINDS/VFR OVERNIGHT. SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATED A CHANCE OF SOME IFR CEILINGS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN NY, PRIMARILY SLK TERMINAL. AT THIS POINT, HAVE NOT
INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
QUICKLY TRAVERSE ACROSS NORTHERN NY BETWEEN 14-17Z AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT BETWEEN 16-19Z. AT THIS POINT HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED "VCSH" IN THE TAFS, BUT THEY COULD BRING A BRIEF (<2 HOUR
PERIOD) OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS THEY MOVE PAST ANY SPECIFIC
LOCATION. WITH AND IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THESE SHOWERS,
SURFACE WINDS WILL KICK AROUND TO NORTHWEST, STRENGTHEN AND GET
RATHER GUSTY. THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z, AND
SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KT IN MANY LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 06Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR, WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
MVFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...NASH



000
FXUS61 KBTV 171641
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1241 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING.
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON
SATURDAY AND BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SUNSHINE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1241 PM EDT FRIDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING BREAKS
DEVELOPING IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

ON SATURDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...AND
SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INDICATED FOR NORTHERN VERMONT...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WIND FIELDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTERS EXPECTED BE A BIT BELOW ZERO ACROSS VERMONT. SO SOME OF
THE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN SPOTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.

SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SATURDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN +6 AND +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH
WITH FULL SUN SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER LIKELY LASTING THROUGH ALL
OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW
AND SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD
FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM
DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF
40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PUSHING ON TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE
DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. UNFORTUNATELY THE UPPER LOW BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MIGHT EVEN RETROGRADE
NORTHWESTWARD A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO SO IT`S HARD TO
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S WHICH WILL SUPPORT
PTYPE AS RAIN DURING THE DAY, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATOP THE HIGHER SUMMITS, COULD BE ALL SNOW WITH
TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS. GOTTA LOVE
SPRING IN THE NORTH COUNTRY!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...PRECIP EXITS TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND ISOLATED IFR VSBY/CIGS AT KMSS/KSLK FOR A
FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS BY MID-
DAY AND BECOME FEW-SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS, TURNING WEST/SOUTHWEST AFTER 14Z WITH
BRIEF GUSTS PEAK UP TO 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS TREND LIGHT AND
SKIES TREND CLEAR AFTER 00Z, BUT INCREASE AGAIN TOWARDS 12 IN
ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 171641
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1241 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING.
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON
SATURDAY AND BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SUNSHINE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1241 PM EDT FRIDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING BREAKS
DEVELOPING IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

ON SATURDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...AND
SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INDICATED FOR NORTHERN VERMONT...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WIND FIELDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTERS EXPECTED BE A BIT BELOW ZERO ACROSS VERMONT. SO SOME OF
THE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN SPOTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.

SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SATURDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN +6 AND +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH
WITH FULL SUN SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER LIKELY LASTING THROUGH ALL
OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW
AND SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD
FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM
DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF
40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PUSHING ON TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE
DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. UNFORTUNATELY THE UPPER LOW BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MIGHT EVEN RETROGRADE
NORTHWESTWARD A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO SO IT`S HARD TO
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S WHICH WILL SUPPORT
PTYPE AS RAIN DURING THE DAY, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATOP THE HIGHER SUMMITS, COULD BE ALL SNOW WITH
TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS. GOTTA LOVE
SPRING IN THE NORTH COUNTRY!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...PRECIP EXITS TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND ISOLATED IFR VSBY/CIGS AT KMSS/KSLK FOR A
FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS BY MID-
DAY AND BECOME FEW-SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS, TURNING WEST/SOUTHWEST AFTER 14Z WITH
BRIEF GUSTS PEAK UP TO 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS TREND LIGHT AND
SKIES TREND CLEAR AFTER 00Z, BUT INCREASE AGAIN TOWARDS 12 IN
ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 171641
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1241 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING.
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON
SATURDAY AND BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SUNSHINE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1241 PM EDT FRIDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING BREAKS
DEVELOPING IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

ON SATURDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...AND
SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INDICATED FOR NORTHERN VERMONT...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WIND FIELDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTERS EXPECTED BE A BIT BELOW ZERO ACROSS VERMONT. SO SOME OF
THE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN SPOTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.

SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SATURDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN +6 AND +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH
WITH FULL SUN SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER LIKELY LASTING THROUGH ALL
OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW
AND SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD
FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM
DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF
40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PUSHING ON TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE
DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. UNFORTUNATELY THE UPPER LOW BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MIGHT EVEN RETROGRADE
NORTHWESTWARD A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO SO IT`S HARD TO
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S WHICH WILL SUPPORT
PTYPE AS RAIN DURING THE DAY, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATOP THE HIGHER SUMMITS, COULD BE ALL SNOW WITH
TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS. GOTTA LOVE
SPRING IN THE NORTH COUNTRY!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...PRECIP EXITS TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND ISOLATED IFR VSBY/CIGS AT KMSS/KSLK FOR A
FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS BY MID-
DAY AND BECOME FEW-SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS, TURNING WEST/SOUTHWEST AFTER 14Z WITH
BRIEF GUSTS PEAK UP TO 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS TREND LIGHT AND
SKIES TREND CLEAR AFTER 00Z, BUT INCREASE AGAIN TOWARDS 12 IN
ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 171430
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1030 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING.
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON
SATURDAY AND BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SUNSHINE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOP SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE
MOVED EAST OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST
TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND TO LOWER THE POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING BREAKS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN THE OVERCAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING SKIES TO BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 655 AM EDT FRIDAY...A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY POPS FOR THIS MORNING BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...EXITING TO THE EAST BY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS ARE RATHER WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT
WILL BE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. BACK EDGE OF THE CONCENTRATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
INTO CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS AND PROGRESSING RAPIDLY EAST. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE GREENS EARLY
TODAY AS WINDS GO WESTERLY. WITH DEPARTURE OF SHORTWAVE THIS
AFTERNOON...WE CAN EXPECT SOME CLEARING AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO
THE REGION. 925 MB TEMPS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY...SO
WITH A LITTLE AFTERNOON SUN...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH WELL
INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

ON SATURDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...AND
SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INDICATED FOR NORTHERN VERMONT...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WIND FIELDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTERS EXPECTED BE A BIT BELOW ZERO ACROSS VERMONT. SO SOME OF
THE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN SPOTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.

SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SATURDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN +6 AND +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH
WITH FULL SUN SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER LIKELY LASTING THROUGH ALL
OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW
AND SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD
FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM
DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF
40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PUSHING ON TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE
DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. UNFORTUNATELY THE UPPER LOW BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MIGHT EVEN RETROGRADE
NORTHWESTWARD A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO SO IT`S HARD TO
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S WHICH WILL SUPPORT
PTYPE AS RAIN DURING THE DAY, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATOP THE HIGHER SUMMITS, COULD BE ALL SNOW WITH
TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS. GOTTA LOVE
SPRING IN THE NORTH COUNTRY!

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...PRECIP EXITS TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND ISOLATED IFR VSBY/CIGS AT KMSS/KSLK FOR A
FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS BY MID-
DAY AND BECOME FEW-SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS, TURNING WEST/SOUTHWEST AFTER 14Z WITH
BRIEF GUSTS PEAK UP TO 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS TREND LIGHT AND
SKIES TREND CLEAR AFTER 00Z, BUT INCREASE AGAIN TOWARDS 12 IN
ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 171430
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1030 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING.
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON
SATURDAY AND BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SUNSHINE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT FRIDAY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOP SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE
MOVED EAST OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST
TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND TO LOWER THE POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING BREAKS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN THE OVERCAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING SKIES TO BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 655 AM EDT FRIDAY...A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY POPS FOR THIS MORNING BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...EXITING TO THE EAST BY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS ARE RATHER WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT
WILL BE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. BACK EDGE OF THE CONCENTRATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
INTO CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS AND PROGRESSING RAPIDLY EAST. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE GREENS EARLY
TODAY AS WINDS GO WESTERLY. WITH DEPARTURE OF SHORTWAVE THIS
AFTERNOON...WE CAN EXPECT SOME CLEARING AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO
THE REGION. 925 MB TEMPS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY...SO
WITH A LITTLE AFTERNOON SUN...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH WELL
INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

ON SATURDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...AND
SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INDICATED FOR NORTHERN VERMONT...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WIND FIELDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTERS EXPECTED BE A BIT BELOW ZERO ACROSS VERMONT. SO SOME OF
THE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN SPOTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.

SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SATURDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN +6 AND +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH
WITH FULL SUN SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER LIKELY LASTING THROUGH ALL
OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW
AND SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD
FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM
DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF
40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PUSHING ON TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE
DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. UNFORTUNATELY THE UPPER LOW BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MIGHT EVEN RETROGRADE
NORTHWESTWARD A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO SO IT`S HARD TO
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S WHICH WILL SUPPORT
PTYPE AS RAIN DURING THE DAY, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATOP THE HIGHER SUMMITS, COULD BE ALL SNOW WITH
TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS. GOTTA LOVE
SPRING IN THE NORTH COUNTRY!

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...PRECIP EXITS TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND ISOLATED IFR VSBY/CIGS AT KMSS/KSLK FOR A
FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS BY MID-
DAY AND BECOME FEW-SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS, TURNING WEST/SOUTHWEST AFTER 14Z WITH
BRIEF GUSTS PEAK UP TO 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS TREND LIGHT AND
SKIES TREND CLEAR AFTER 00Z, BUT INCREASE AGAIN TOWARDS 12 IN
ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...WGH/RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KALY 171422
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1022 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS ALREADY MOVED TO THE EAST OF
REGION...AND ANY LEFTOVER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY CREST OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH QUICKLY
THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
IN AREAS NORTH OF ALBANY. IN IT WAKE THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF
BRISK WINDS...THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY WITH FINE WEATHER. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN UPSTREAM OF THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...SO HAVE REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE REGION ONLY
20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING...AND TO MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME MINOR TEMP
ADJUSTMENTS.

PREV DISC...H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS A COMPACT SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NE. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE
REGIONAL RADAR VIEW OF SCT-NUM SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWFA. PER THE
6-HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ASOS...ALL VALUES WERE LESS THAN TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS WAS JUST TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON RIVER WITH ANOTHER UPSTREAM LINE OF SHOWERS
APPROACHING. THIS SET OF SHOWERS WAS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING PER THE TIMING OF
THE RAP13/HRRR. SO WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS THEN QUICKLY DROP THOSE VALUES DOWN.
AS FOR SKY CONDITIONS...THIS TOO SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE MID
AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS SUBSIDENCE UNFOLDS ALONG WITH DRY AIR
ADVECTION. THE COMBINATION OF MID APRIL SUN ANGLE AND IMPROVEMENTS
TO SKY COVER...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MILD AS WE RETURN BACK
INTO THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES.

TONIGHT...ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS OR ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH OF ALBANY
WILL GIVE AWAY TO SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO GENERALLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER WITH 30S ACROSS
THE TERRAIN AND LOWER HALF OF THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MDLS SUITE (GFS/GEM/NAM/12UTC ECMWF) IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ONLY SOME 6 HRS TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH ARRIVAL OF MON MRNG
SYSTEM. RANGES FROM 06UTC IN GEM/NAM TO 18UTC IN PVS ECMWF WITH GFS
THE MID POINT AT 12UTC. WILL USE GFS FOR TIMING SUN NT INTO MON.

OTHERWISE SAT BEGINS W/WK HIGH PRESSURE FM OH VLY TO DELMARVA...AND
CDFNT DROPPING SE FM E GRTLKS. WHILE SOME KIND OF WK WIND SHIFT
LINE IS ALREADY E OF FCA...MAIN CDFNT IS ON YOW-TOL LN AT 12UTC...BUT
BY 18UTC GFS HAS IT JUST WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR...NAM A TAD SLOWER.
MAIN FEATURE SAT WILL BE POWERFUL 500HPA SHORT WV DIVING SE ACROSS
N NY AND NEW ENG...AND RESULTING RAPID CYCLOGENISUS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WELL E OF FCA. HWVR IT WILL LEAVE US IN THE GRADIENT BTWN
BUILDING ONTARIO 1026HPA SFC HIGH AND DEEPENING SFC LOW IN GULF
OF MAINE. RESULT COULD BE A PERIOD OF BRISK TO STRONG WINDS SAT
AFTN AND EARLY AFT FM THE NORTH. MOST OF THE GUID IS RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED AND THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS
AND -SHRA MAINLY N OF MHWK VLY. ITS COLD CORE QUICKLY PASSES
ACROSS THE N TIER SAT...AND HAS ONLY MODEST IMPACT ON TEMP PROFILE
FURTHER S...HIGHS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRI...EXCEPT IN THE FAR
NW FCA WHERE THEY WILL BE 5-10 DEG COOLER...60S IN MOST AREAS SOME
MID AND UPPER 50S IN N ADRDKS.

SAT NT AND SUN WILL BRING SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDING SE FM OTTAWA
VLY. WIND GRAD WILL QUICKLY RELAX AND DECOUPLE. WITH A COOL IDEAL
(FOR APRIL) RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A GEM AS 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS E ACROSS RGN AND SFC
HIGH IS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW RH...LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG SUN
AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS.

CONDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS 500HPA CUT OFF MOVES EAST INTO
THE N GRT PLAINS AND RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AT THE SFC DEEPENING
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE GRTLKS WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING S INTO OH VLY AND A WMFNT SE FM CMH-HAT. SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH INCREASING WIND GRADIENT ACROSS FCA SUN NT.

CLOUDS WILL INCR SUN NT AND RAIN ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. DURING MON
MOST OF THE GUID DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW IN OR NR I95 CORRIDOR
ALONG THE PRIMARY SYSTEMS TRIPLE POINT...ENHANCING THE MOISTURE
FEED INTO THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEMS
ORGANIZATION VARIES AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THEY ALL AGREE ON ITS
FORMING.

MOST OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES PRODUCE AN INCH OR SO QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH OUTLIERS AROUND 2 INCHES AND 0.3 RESPECTIVELY.
MONDAY WILL BE A RAINY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT
FIRST...TRENDING COOLER THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A 500HPA CUTOFF
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND
CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

FIRST MONDAY INTO TUES MORNING THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL LIFT NE
THROUGH THE REGION AS A COASTAL LOW LIFTS NE ALONG THE I95
CORRIDOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN..TAPING OFF TUES
MRNG. THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHORT WVS AND A SERIES OF CDFNTS WILL
CROSS THE RGN...BRINGING PERIODS OF -SHRA...AND POSSIBLE -SHSN
HIR TRRN. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED...BUT
THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF PC CONDS. SINCE ITS A KINDA GENERIC
COOL...SHOWERY PERIOD...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 500HPA CUTOFF
AND MOST OF THE GUID IS IN AGREEMENT ON THAT SCENARIO...WILL
POPULATE WITH WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS WAS APPROACHING THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND SHORTLY. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH THE CHANCE FOR MVFR VIS WITHIN THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS...THE SURFACE WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18
KT THROUGH THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO WESTERLY DIRECTION AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS WITH A DECREASE IN
SHOWER COVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN. RH VALUES LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON....HWVR THE LIGHT RAINFALL
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS...AS RH VALUES
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT.

SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION WITH SOME
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH WITH LIGHT RAINFALL. IN ITS
WAKE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE AS
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. RH
VALUES WILL FALL TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT...AND COMBINED WITH THE WINDS
FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHER THAN SOME
LIGHT RAIN WITH A DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM THIS MORNING AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT...CONDITIONS
WILL BE DRY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SATELLITE AND SURVEY DATA FROM COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE
IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE
COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO
SNOW MELT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHERE CURRENTLY AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED...AND COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER



000
FXUS61 KALY 171422
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1022 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS ALREADY MOVED TO THE EAST OF
REGION...AND ANY LEFTOVER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY CREST OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH QUICKLY
THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
IN AREAS NORTH OF ALBANY. IN IT WAKE THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF
BRISK WINDS...THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY WITH FINE WEATHER. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN UPSTREAM OF THE
ALBANY FORECAST AREA...SO HAVE REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE REGION ONLY
20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING...AND TO MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME MINOR TEMP
ADJUSTMENTS.

PREV DISC...H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS A COMPACT SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NE. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE
REGIONAL RADAR VIEW OF SCT-NUM SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWFA. PER THE
6-HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ASOS...ALL VALUES WERE LESS THAN TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS WAS JUST TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON RIVER WITH ANOTHER UPSTREAM LINE OF SHOWERS
APPROACHING. THIS SET OF SHOWERS WAS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING PER THE TIMING OF
THE RAP13/HRRR. SO WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS THEN QUICKLY DROP THOSE VALUES DOWN.
AS FOR SKY CONDITIONS...THIS TOO SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE MID
AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS SUBSIDENCE UNFOLDS ALONG WITH DRY AIR
ADVECTION. THE COMBINATION OF MID APRIL SUN ANGLE AND IMPROVEMENTS
TO SKY COVER...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MILD AS WE RETURN BACK
INTO THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES.

TONIGHT...ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS OR ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH OF ALBANY
WILL GIVE AWAY TO SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO GENERALLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER WITH 30S ACROSS
THE TERRAIN AND LOWER HALF OF THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MDLS SUITE (GFS/GEM/NAM/12UTC ECMWF) IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ONLY SOME 6 HRS TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH ARRIVAL OF MON MRNG
SYSTEM. RANGES FROM 06UTC IN GEM/NAM TO 18UTC IN PVS ECMWF WITH GFS
THE MID POINT AT 12UTC. WILL USE GFS FOR TIMING SUN NT INTO MON.

OTHERWISE SAT BEGINS W/WK HIGH PRESSURE FM OH VLY TO DELMARVA...AND
CDFNT DROPPING SE FM E GRTLKS. WHILE SOME KIND OF WK WIND SHIFT
LINE IS ALREADY E OF FCA...MAIN CDFNT IS ON YOW-TOL LN AT 12UTC...BUT
BY 18UTC GFS HAS IT JUST WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR...NAM A TAD SLOWER.
MAIN FEATURE SAT WILL BE POWERFUL 500HPA SHORT WV DIVING SE ACROSS
N NY AND NEW ENG...AND RESULTING RAPID CYCLOGENISUS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WELL E OF FCA. HWVR IT WILL LEAVE US IN THE GRADIENT BTWN
BUILDING ONTARIO 1026HPA SFC HIGH AND DEEPENING SFC LOW IN GULF
OF MAINE. RESULT COULD BE A PERIOD OF BRISK TO STRONG WINDS SAT
AFTN AND EARLY AFT FM THE NORTH. MOST OF THE GUID IS RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED AND THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS
AND -SHRA MAINLY N OF MHWK VLY. ITS COLD CORE QUICKLY PASSES
ACROSS THE N TIER SAT...AND HAS ONLY MODEST IMPACT ON TEMP PROFILE
FURTHER S...HIGHS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRI...EXCEPT IN THE FAR
NW FCA WHERE THEY WILL BE 5-10 DEG COOLER...60S IN MOST AREAS SOME
MID AND UPPER 50S IN N ADRDKS.

SAT NT AND SUN WILL BRING SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDING SE FM OTTAWA
VLY. WIND GRAD WILL QUICKLY RELAX AND DECOUPLE. WITH A COOL IDEAL
(FOR APRIL) RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A GEM AS 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS E ACROSS RGN AND SFC
HIGH IS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW RH...LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG SUN
AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS.

CONDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS 500HPA CUT OFF MOVES EAST INTO
THE N GRT PLAINS AND RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AT THE SFC DEEPENING
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE GRTLKS WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING S INTO OH VLY AND A WMFNT SE FM CMH-HAT. SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH INCREASING WIND GRADIENT ACROSS FCA SUN NT.

CLOUDS WILL INCR SUN NT AND RAIN ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. DURING MON
MOST OF THE GUID DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW IN OR NR I95 CORRIDOR
ALONG THE PRIMARY SYSTEMS TRIPLE POINT...ENHANCING THE MOISTURE
FEED INTO THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEMS
ORGANIZATION VARIES AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THEY ALL AGREE ON ITS
FORMING.

MOST OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES PRODUCE AN INCH OR SO QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH OUTLIERS AROUND 2 INCHES AND 0.3 RESPECTIVELY.
MONDAY WILL BE A RAINY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT
FIRST...TRENDING COOLER THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A 500HPA CUTOFF
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND
CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

FIRST MONDAY INTO TUES MORNING THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL LIFT NE
THROUGH THE REGION AS A COASTAL LOW LIFTS NE ALONG THE I95
CORRIDOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN..TAPING OFF TUES
MRNG. THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHORT WVS AND A SERIES OF CDFNTS WILL
CROSS THE RGN...BRINGING PERIODS OF -SHRA...AND POSSIBLE -SHSN
HIR TRRN. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED...BUT
THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF PC CONDS. SINCE ITS A KINDA GENERIC
COOL...SHOWERY PERIOD...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 500HPA CUTOFF
AND MOST OF THE GUID IS IN AGREEMENT ON THAT SCENARIO...WILL
POPULATE WITH WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS WAS APPROACHING THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND SHORTLY. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH THE CHANCE FOR MVFR VIS WITHIN THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS...THE SURFACE WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18
KT THROUGH THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO WESTERLY DIRECTION AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS WITH A DECREASE IN
SHOWER COVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN. RH VALUES LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON....HWVR THE LIGHT RAINFALL
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS...AS RH VALUES
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT.

SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION WITH SOME
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH WITH LIGHT RAINFALL. IN ITS
WAKE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE AS
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. RH
VALUES WILL FALL TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT...AND COMBINED WITH THE WINDS
FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHER THAN SOME
LIGHT RAIN WITH A DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM THIS MORNING AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT...CONDITIONS
WILL BE DRY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SATELLITE AND SURVEY DATA FROM COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE
IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE
COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO
SNOW MELT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHERE CURRENTLY AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED...AND COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER



000
FXUS61 KBTV 171135
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
735 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN SHOWERS. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND BRING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. SUNSHINE RETURNS FOR
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM EDT FRIDAY...A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY
POPS FOR THIS MORNING BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...EXITING TO THE EAST BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE RATHER
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL BE TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. BACK
EDGE OF THE CONCENTRATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS INTO CENTRAL
ADIRONDACKS AND PROGRESSING RAPIDLY EAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE GREENS EARLY TODAY AS WINDS
GO WESTERLY. WITH DEPARTURE OF SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON...WE CAN
EXPECT SOME CLEARING AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. 925 MB
TEMPS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY...SO WITH A LITTLE
AFTERNOON SUN...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

ON SATURDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...AND
SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INDICATED FOR NORTHERN VERMONT...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WIND FIELDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTERS EXPECTED BE A BIT BELOW ZERO ACROSS VERMONT. SO SOME OF
THE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN SPOTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.

SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SATURDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN +6 AND +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH
WITH FULL SUN SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER LIKELY LASTING THROUGH ALL
OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW
AND SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD
FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM
DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF
40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PUSHING ON TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE
DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. UNFORTUNATELY THE UPPER LOW BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MIGHT EVEN RETROGRADE
NORTHWESTWARD A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO SO IT`S HARD TO
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S WHICH WILL SUPPORT
PTYPE AS RAIN DURING THE DAY, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATOP THE HIGHER SUMMITS, COULD BE ALL SNOW WITH
TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS. GOTTA LOVE
SPRING IN THE NORTH COUNTRY!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...PRECIP EXITS TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND ISOLATED IFR VSBY/CIGS AT KMSS/KSLK FOR A
FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS BY MID-
DAY AND BECOME FEW-SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS, TURNING WEST/SOUTHWEST AFTER 14Z WITH
BRIEF GUSTS PEAK UP TO 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS TREND LIGHT AND
SKIES TREND CLEAR AFTER 00Z, BUT INCREASE AGAIN TOWARDS 12 IN
ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 171135
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
735 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN SHOWERS. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND BRING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. SUNSHINE RETURNS FOR
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM EDT FRIDAY...A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY
POPS FOR THIS MORNING BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...EXITING TO THE EAST BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE RATHER
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL BE TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. BACK
EDGE OF THE CONCENTRATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS INTO CENTRAL
ADIRONDACKS AND PROGRESSING RAPIDLY EAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE GREENS EARLY TODAY AS WINDS
GO WESTERLY. WITH DEPARTURE OF SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON...WE CAN
EXPECT SOME CLEARING AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. 925 MB
TEMPS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY...SO WITH A LITTLE
AFTERNOON SUN...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

ON SATURDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...AND
SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INDICATED FOR NORTHERN VERMONT...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WIND FIELDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTERS EXPECTED BE A BIT BELOW ZERO ACROSS VERMONT. SO SOME OF
THE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN SPOTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.

SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SATURDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN +6 AND +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH
WITH FULL SUN SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER LIKELY LASTING THROUGH ALL
OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW
AND SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD
FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM
DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF
40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PUSHING ON TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE
DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. UNFORTUNATELY THE UPPER LOW BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MIGHT EVEN RETROGRADE
NORTHWESTWARD A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO SO IT`S HARD TO
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S WHICH WILL SUPPORT
PTYPE AS RAIN DURING THE DAY, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATOP THE HIGHER SUMMITS, COULD BE ALL SNOW WITH
TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS. GOTTA LOVE
SPRING IN THE NORTH COUNTRY!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...PRECIP EXITS TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND ISOLATED IFR VSBY/CIGS AT KMSS/KSLK FOR A
FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS BY MID-
DAY AND BECOME FEW-SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS, TURNING WEST/SOUTHWEST AFTER 14Z WITH
BRIEF GUSTS PEAK UP TO 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS TREND LIGHT AND
SKIES TREND CLEAR AFTER 00Z, BUT INCREASE AGAIN TOWARDS 12 IN
ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 171135
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
735 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN SHOWERS. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND BRING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. SUNSHINE RETURNS FOR
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM EDT FRIDAY...A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY
POPS FOR THIS MORNING BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...EXITING TO THE EAST BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE RATHER
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL BE TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. BACK
EDGE OF THE CONCENTRATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS INTO CENTRAL
ADIRONDACKS AND PROGRESSING RAPIDLY EAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE GREENS EARLY TODAY AS WINDS
GO WESTERLY. WITH DEPARTURE OF SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON...WE CAN
EXPECT SOME CLEARING AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. 925 MB
TEMPS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY...SO WITH A LITTLE
AFTERNOON SUN...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

ON SATURDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...AND
SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INDICATED FOR NORTHERN VERMONT...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WIND FIELDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTERS EXPECTED BE A BIT BELOW ZERO ACROSS VERMONT. SO SOME OF
THE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN SPOTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.

SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SATURDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN +6 AND +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH
WITH FULL SUN SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER LIKELY LASTING THROUGH ALL
OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW
AND SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD
FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM
DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF
40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PUSHING ON TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE
DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. UNFORTUNATELY THE UPPER LOW BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MIGHT EVEN RETROGRADE
NORTHWESTWARD A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO SO IT`S HARD TO
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S WHICH WILL SUPPORT
PTYPE AS RAIN DURING THE DAY, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATOP THE HIGHER SUMMITS, COULD BE ALL SNOW WITH
TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS. GOTTA LOVE
SPRING IN THE NORTH COUNTRY!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...PRECIP EXITS TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND ISOLATED IFR VSBY/CIGS AT KMSS/KSLK FOR A
FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS BY MID-
DAY AND BECOME FEW-SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS, TURNING WEST/SOUTHWEST AFTER 14Z WITH
BRIEF GUSTS PEAK UP TO 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS TREND LIGHT AND
SKIES TREND CLEAR AFTER 00Z, BUT INCREASE AGAIN TOWARDS 12 IN
ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 171135
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
735 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN SHOWERS. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND BRING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. SUNSHINE RETURNS FOR
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM EDT FRIDAY...A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY
POPS FOR THIS MORNING BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...EXITING TO THE EAST BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE RATHER
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL BE TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. BACK
EDGE OF THE CONCENTRATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS INTO CENTRAL
ADIRONDACKS AND PROGRESSING RAPIDLY EAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE GREENS EARLY TODAY AS WINDS
GO WESTERLY. WITH DEPARTURE OF SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON...WE CAN
EXPECT SOME CLEARING AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. 925 MB
TEMPS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY...SO WITH A LITTLE
AFTERNOON SUN...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

ON SATURDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...AND
SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INDICATED FOR NORTHERN VERMONT...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WIND FIELDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTERS EXPECTED BE A BIT BELOW ZERO ACROSS VERMONT. SO SOME OF
THE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN SPOTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.

SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SATURDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN +6 AND +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH
WITH FULL SUN SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER LIKELY LASTING THROUGH ALL
OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW
AND SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD
FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM
DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF
40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PUSHING ON TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE
DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. UNFORTUNATELY THE UPPER LOW BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MIGHT EVEN RETROGRADE
NORTHWESTWARD A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO SO IT`S HARD TO
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S WHICH WILL SUPPORT
PTYPE AS RAIN DURING THE DAY, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATOP THE HIGHER SUMMITS, COULD BE ALL SNOW WITH
TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS. GOTTA LOVE
SPRING IN THE NORTH COUNTRY!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...PRECIP EXITS TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND ISOLATED IFR VSBY/CIGS AT KMSS/KSLK FOR A
FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS BY MID-
DAY AND BECOME FEW-SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS, TURNING WEST/SOUTHWEST AFTER 14Z WITH
BRIEF GUSTS PEAK UP TO 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS TREND LIGHT AND
SKIES TREND CLEAR AFTER 00Z, BUT INCREASE AGAIN TOWARDS 12 IN
ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 171101
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
701 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN SHOWERS. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND BRING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. SUNSHINE RETURNS FOR
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM EDT FRIDAY...A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY
POPS FOR THIS MORNING BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...EXITING TO THE EAST BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE RATHER
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL BE TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. BACK
EDGE OF THE CONCENTRATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS INTO CENTRAL
ADIRONDACKS AND PROGRESSING RAPIDLY EAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE GREENS EARLY TODAY AS WINDS
GO WESTERLY. WITH DEPARTURE OF SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON...WE CAN
EXPECT SOME CLEARING AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. 925 MB
TEMPS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY...SO WITH A LITTLE
AFTERNOON SUN...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

ON SATURDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...AND
SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INDICATED FOR NORTHERN VERMONT...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WIND FIELDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTERS EXPECTED BE A BIT BELOW ZERO ACROSS VERMONT. SO SOME OF
THE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN SPOTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.

SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SATURDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN +6 AND +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH
WITH FULL SUN SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER LIKELY LASTING THROUGH ALL
OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW
AND SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD
FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM
DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF
40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PUSHING ON TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE
DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. UNFORTUNATELY THE UPPER LOW BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MIGHT EVEN RETROGRADE
NORTHWESTWARD A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO SO IT`S HARD TO
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S WHICH WILL SUPPORT
PTYPE AS RAIN DURING THE DAY, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATOP THE HIGHER SUMMITS, COULD BE ALL SNOW WITH
TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS. GOTTA LOVE
SPRING IN THE NORTH COUNTRY!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CIGS UNDER BKN-OVC MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, BUT PER UPSTREAM OBS VSBY WILL REMAIN VFR.
AFTER PRECIP EXITS IS WHEN CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR FOR A SHORT
PERIOD, MAINLY AFTER 08Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND 11Z ACROSS
VERMONT. CIGS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS AND BECOME FEW-
SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS, TRENDING WEST TO SOUTHWEST AFTER 12Z. THERE
WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS WHERE GUSTS WILL PEAK UP TO 20KTS, LOCALLY
AT KMSS/KBTV FROM 06-08Z, AND AGAIN FROM 18-21Z THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 171101
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
701 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN SHOWERS. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND BRING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. SUNSHINE RETURNS FOR
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM EDT FRIDAY...A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY
POPS FOR THIS MORNING BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...EXITING TO THE EAST BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE RATHER
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL BE TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. BACK
EDGE OF THE CONCENTRATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS INTO CENTRAL
ADIRONDACKS AND PROGRESSING RAPIDLY EAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE GREENS EARLY TODAY AS WINDS
GO WESTERLY. WITH DEPARTURE OF SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON...WE CAN
EXPECT SOME CLEARING AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. 925 MB
TEMPS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY...SO WITH A LITTLE
AFTERNOON SUN...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

ON SATURDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...AND
SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INDICATED FOR NORTHERN VERMONT...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WIND FIELDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTERS EXPECTED BE A BIT BELOW ZERO ACROSS VERMONT. SO SOME OF
THE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN SPOTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.

SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SATURDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN +6 AND +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH
WITH FULL SUN SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER LIKELY LASTING THROUGH ALL
OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW
AND SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD
FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM
DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF
40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PUSHING ON TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE
DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. UNFORTUNATELY THE UPPER LOW BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MIGHT EVEN RETROGRADE
NORTHWESTWARD A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO SO IT`S HARD TO
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S WHICH WILL SUPPORT
PTYPE AS RAIN DURING THE DAY, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATOP THE HIGHER SUMMITS, COULD BE ALL SNOW WITH
TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS. GOTTA LOVE
SPRING IN THE NORTH COUNTRY!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CIGS UNDER BKN-OVC MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, BUT PER UPSTREAM OBS VSBY WILL REMAIN VFR.
AFTER PRECIP EXITS IS WHEN CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR FOR A SHORT
PERIOD, MAINLY AFTER 08Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND 11Z ACROSS
VERMONT. CIGS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS AND BECOME FEW-
SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS, TRENDING WEST TO SOUTHWEST AFTER 12Z. THERE
WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS WHERE GUSTS WILL PEAK UP TO 20KTS, LOCALLY
AT KMSS/KBTV FROM 06-08Z, AND AGAIN FROM 18-21Z THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 171101
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
701 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN SHOWERS. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND BRING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. SUNSHINE RETURNS FOR
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM EDT FRIDAY...A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY
POPS FOR THIS MORNING BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...EXITING TO THE EAST BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE RATHER
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL BE TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. BACK
EDGE OF THE CONCENTRATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS INTO CENTRAL
ADIRONDACKS AND PROGRESSING RAPIDLY EAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE GREENS EARLY TODAY AS WINDS
GO WESTERLY. WITH DEPARTURE OF SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON...WE CAN
EXPECT SOME CLEARING AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. 925 MB
TEMPS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY...SO WITH A LITTLE
AFTERNOON SUN...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

ON SATURDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...AND
SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INDICATED FOR NORTHERN VERMONT...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WIND FIELDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTERS EXPECTED BE A BIT BELOW ZERO ACROSS VERMONT. SO SOME OF
THE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN SPOTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.

SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SATURDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN +6 AND +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH
WITH FULL SUN SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER LIKELY LASTING THROUGH ALL
OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW
AND SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD
FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM
DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF
40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PUSHING ON TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE
DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. UNFORTUNATELY THE UPPER LOW BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MIGHT EVEN RETROGRADE
NORTHWESTWARD A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO SO IT`S HARD TO
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S WHICH WILL SUPPORT
PTYPE AS RAIN DURING THE DAY, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATOP THE HIGHER SUMMITS, COULD BE ALL SNOW WITH
TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS. GOTTA LOVE
SPRING IN THE NORTH COUNTRY!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CIGS UNDER BKN-OVC MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, BUT PER UPSTREAM OBS VSBY WILL REMAIN VFR.
AFTER PRECIP EXITS IS WHEN CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR FOR A SHORT
PERIOD, MAINLY AFTER 08Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND 11Z ACROSS
VERMONT. CIGS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS AND BECOME FEW-
SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS, TRENDING WEST TO SOUTHWEST AFTER 12Z. THERE
WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS WHERE GUSTS WILL PEAK UP TO 20KTS, LOCALLY
AT KMSS/KBTV FROM 06-08Z, AND AGAIN FROM 18-21Z THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 171101
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
701 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN SHOWERS. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND BRING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. SUNSHINE RETURNS FOR
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM EDT FRIDAY...A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY
POPS FOR THIS MORNING BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...EXITING TO THE EAST BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE RATHER
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL BE TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. BACK
EDGE OF THE CONCENTRATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS INTO CENTRAL
ADIRONDACKS AND PROGRESSING RAPIDLY EAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE GREENS EARLY TODAY AS WINDS
GO WESTERLY. WITH DEPARTURE OF SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON...WE CAN
EXPECT SOME CLEARING AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. 925 MB
TEMPS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY...SO WITH A LITTLE
AFTERNOON SUN...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

ON SATURDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...AND
SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INDICATED FOR NORTHERN VERMONT...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WIND FIELDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTERS EXPECTED BE A BIT BELOW ZERO ACROSS VERMONT. SO SOME OF
THE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN SPOTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.

SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SATURDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN +6 AND +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH
WITH FULL SUN SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER LIKELY LASTING THROUGH ALL
OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW
AND SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD
FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM
DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF
40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PUSHING ON TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE
DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. UNFORTUNATELY THE UPPER LOW BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MIGHT EVEN RETROGRADE
NORTHWESTWARD A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO SO IT`S HARD TO
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S WHICH WILL SUPPORT
PTYPE AS RAIN DURING THE DAY, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATOP THE HIGHER SUMMITS, COULD BE ALL SNOW WITH
TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS. GOTTA LOVE
SPRING IN THE NORTH COUNTRY!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CIGS UNDER BKN-OVC MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, BUT PER UPSTREAM OBS VSBY WILL REMAIN VFR.
AFTER PRECIP EXITS IS WHEN CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR FOR A SHORT
PERIOD, MAINLY AFTER 08Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND 11Z ACROSS
VERMONT. CIGS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS AND BECOME FEW-
SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS, TRENDING WEST TO SOUTHWEST AFTER 12Z. THERE
WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS WHERE GUSTS WILL PEAK UP TO 20KTS, LOCALLY
AT KMSS/KBTV FROM 06-08Z, AND AGAIN FROM 18-21Z THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 171019
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
619 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
CREST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
QUICKLY THROUGH WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH. IN ITS WAKE THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF BRISK WINDS...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY WITH FINE
WEATHER. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS HAS JUST CLEARED OUR
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES WITH THE NEXT LINE OF SHOWERS NOW
APPROACHING. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO A PERIOD OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING TO BE FOLLOWED BY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY
GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISC...H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS A COMPACT SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NE. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE
REGIONAL RADAR VIEW OF SCT-NUM SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWFA. PER THE
6-HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ASOS...ALL VALUES WERE LESS THAN TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS WAS JUST TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON RIVER WITH ANOTHER UPSTREAM LINE OF SHOWERS
APPROACHING. THIS SET OF SHOWERS WAS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING PER THE TIMING OF
THE RAP13/HRRR. SO WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS THEN QUICKLY DROP THOSE VALUES DOWN.
AS FOR SKY CONDITIONS...THIS TOO SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE MID
AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS SUBSIDENCE UNFOLDS ALONG WITH DRY AIR
ADVECTION. THE COMBINATION OF MID APRIL SUN ANGLE AND IMPROVEMENTS
TO SKY COVER...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MILD AS WE RETURN BACK
INTO THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES.

TONIGHT...ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS OR ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH OF ALBANY
WILL GIVE AWAY TO SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO GENERALLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER WITH 30S ACROSS
THE TERRAIN AND LOWER HALF OF THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MDLS SUITE (GFS/GEM/NAM/12UTC ECMWF) IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ONLY SOME 6 HRS TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH ARRIVAL OF MON MRNG
SYSTEM. RANGES FROM 06UTC IN GEM/NAM TO 18UTC IN PVS ECMWF WITH GFS
THE MID POINT AT 12UTC. WILL USE GFS FOR TIMING SUN NT INTO MON.

OTHERWISE SAT BEGINS W/WK HIGH PRESSURE FM OH VLY TO DELMARVA...AND
CDFNT DROPPING SE FM E GRTLKS. WHILE SOME KIND OF WK WIND SHIFT
LINE IS ALREADY E OF FCA...MAIN CDFNT IS ON YOW-TOL LN AT 12UTC...BUT
BY 18UTC GFS HAS IT JUST WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR...NAM A TAD SLOWER.
MAIN FEATURE SAT WILL BE POWERFUL 500HPA SHORT WV DIVING SE ACROSS
N NY AND NEW ENG...AND RESULTING RAPID CYCLOGENISUS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WELL E OF FCA. HWVR IT WILL LEAVE US IN THE GRADIENT BTWN
BUILDING ONTARIO 1026HPA SFC HIGH AND DEEPENING SFC LOW IN GULF
OF MAINE. RESULT COULD BE A PERIOD OF BRISK TO STRONG WINDS SAT
AFTN AND EARLY AFT FM THE NORTH. MOST OF THE GUID IS RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED AND THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS
AND -SHRA MAINLY N OF MHWK VLY. ITS COLD CORE QUICKLY PASSES
ACROSS THE N TIER SAT...AND HAS ONLY MODEST IMPACT ON TEMP PROFILE
FURTHER S...HIGHS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRI...EXCEPT IN THE FAR
NW FCA WHERE THEY WILL BE 5-10 DEG COOLER...60S IN MOST AREAS SOME
MID AND UPPER 50S IN N ADRDKS.

SAT NT AND SUN WILL BRING SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDING SE FM OTTAWA
VLY. WIND GRAD WILL QUICKLY RELAX AND DECOUPLE. WITH A COOL IDEAL
(FOR APRIL) RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A GEM AS 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS E ACROSS RGN AND SFC
HIGH IS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW RH...LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG SUN
AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS.

CONDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS 500HPA CUT OFF MOVES EAST INTO
THE N GRT PLAINS AND RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AT THE SFC DEEPENING
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE GRTLKS WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING S INTO OH VLY AND A WMFNT SE FM CMH-HAT. SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH INCREASING WIND GRADIENT ACROSS FCA SUN NT.

CLOUDS WILL INCR SUN NT AND RAIN ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. DURING MON
MOST OF THE GUID DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW IN OR NR I95 CORRIDOR
ALONG THE PRIMARY SYSTEMS TRIPLE POINT...ENHANCING THE MOISTURE
FEED INTO THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEMS
ORGANIZATION VARIES AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THEY ALL AGREE ON ITS
FORMING.

MOST OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES PRODUCE AN INCH OR SO QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH OUTLIERS AROUND 2 INCHES AND 0.3 RESPECTIVELY.
MONDAY WILL BE A RAINY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT
FIRST...TRENDING COOLER THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A 500HPA CUTOFF
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND
CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

FIRST MONDAY INTO TUES MORNING THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL LIFT NE
THROUGH THE REGION AS A COASTAL LOW LIFTS NE ALONG THE I95
CORRIDOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN..TAPING OFF TUES
MRNG. THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHORT WVS AND A SERIES OF CDFNTS WILL
CROSS THE RGN...BRINGING PERIODS OF -SHRA...AND POSSIBLE -SHSN
HIR TRRN. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED...BUT
THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF PC CONDS. SINCE ITS A KINDA GENERIC
COOL...SHOWERY PERIOD...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 500HPA CUTOFF
AND MOST OF THE GUID IS IN AGREEMENT ON THAT SCENARIO...WILL
POPULATE WITH WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS WAS APPROACHING THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND SHORTLY. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH THE CHANCE FOR MVFR VIS WITHIN THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS...THE SURFACE WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18
KT THROUGH THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO WESTERLY DIRECTION AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS WITH A DECREASE IN
SHOWER COVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN. RH VALUES LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON....HWVR THE LIGHT RAINFALL
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS...AS RH VALUES
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT.

SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION WITH SOME
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH WITH LIGHT RAINFALL. IN ITS
WAKE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE AS
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. RH
VALUES WILL FALL TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT...AND COMBINED WITH THE WINDS
FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHER THAN SOME
LIGHT RAIN WITH A DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM THIS MORNING AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT...CONDITIONS
WILL BE DRY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SATELLITE AND SURVEY DATA FROM COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE
IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE
COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO
SNOW MELT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHERE CURRENTLY AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED...AND COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER



000
FXUS61 KALY 171019
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
619 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
CREST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
QUICKLY THROUGH WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH. IN ITS WAKE THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF BRISK WINDS...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY WITH FINE
WEATHER. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS HAS JUST CLEARED OUR
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES WITH THE NEXT LINE OF SHOWERS NOW
APPROACHING. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO A PERIOD OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING TO BE FOLLOWED BY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY
GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISC...H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS A COMPACT SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NE. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE
REGIONAL RADAR VIEW OF SCT-NUM SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWFA. PER THE
6-HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ASOS...ALL VALUES WERE LESS THAN TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS WAS JUST TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON RIVER WITH ANOTHER UPSTREAM LINE OF SHOWERS
APPROACHING. THIS SET OF SHOWERS WAS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING PER THE TIMING OF
THE RAP13/HRRR. SO WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS THEN QUICKLY DROP THOSE VALUES DOWN.
AS FOR SKY CONDITIONS...THIS TOO SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE MID
AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS SUBSIDENCE UNFOLDS ALONG WITH DRY AIR
ADVECTION. THE COMBINATION OF MID APRIL SUN ANGLE AND IMPROVEMENTS
TO SKY COVER...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MILD AS WE RETURN BACK
INTO THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES.

TONIGHT...ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS OR ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH OF ALBANY
WILL GIVE AWAY TO SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO GENERALLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER WITH 30S ACROSS
THE TERRAIN AND LOWER HALF OF THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MDLS SUITE (GFS/GEM/NAM/12UTC ECMWF) IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ONLY SOME 6 HRS TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH ARRIVAL OF MON MRNG
SYSTEM. RANGES FROM 06UTC IN GEM/NAM TO 18UTC IN PVS ECMWF WITH GFS
THE MID POINT AT 12UTC. WILL USE GFS FOR TIMING SUN NT INTO MON.

OTHERWISE SAT BEGINS W/WK HIGH PRESSURE FM OH VLY TO DELMARVA...AND
CDFNT DROPPING SE FM E GRTLKS. WHILE SOME KIND OF WK WIND SHIFT
LINE IS ALREADY E OF FCA...MAIN CDFNT IS ON YOW-TOL LN AT 12UTC...BUT
BY 18UTC GFS HAS IT JUST WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR...NAM A TAD SLOWER.
MAIN FEATURE SAT WILL BE POWERFUL 500HPA SHORT WV DIVING SE ACROSS
N NY AND NEW ENG...AND RESULTING RAPID CYCLOGENISUS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WELL E OF FCA. HWVR IT WILL LEAVE US IN THE GRADIENT BTWN
BUILDING ONTARIO 1026HPA SFC HIGH AND DEEPENING SFC LOW IN GULF
OF MAINE. RESULT COULD BE A PERIOD OF BRISK TO STRONG WINDS SAT
AFTN AND EARLY AFT FM THE NORTH. MOST OF THE GUID IS RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED AND THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS
AND -SHRA MAINLY N OF MHWK VLY. ITS COLD CORE QUICKLY PASSES
ACROSS THE N TIER SAT...AND HAS ONLY MODEST IMPACT ON TEMP PROFILE
FURTHER S...HIGHS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRI...EXCEPT IN THE FAR
NW FCA WHERE THEY WILL BE 5-10 DEG COOLER...60S IN MOST AREAS SOME
MID AND UPPER 50S IN N ADRDKS.

SAT NT AND SUN WILL BRING SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDING SE FM OTTAWA
VLY. WIND GRAD WILL QUICKLY RELAX AND DECOUPLE. WITH A COOL IDEAL
(FOR APRIL) RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A GEM AS 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS E ACROSS RGN AND SFC
HIGH IS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW RH...LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG SUN
AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS.

CONDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS 500HPA CUT OFF MOVES EAST INTO
THE N GRT PLAINS AND RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AT THE SFC DEEPENING
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE GRTLKS WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING S INTO OH VLY AND A WMFNT SE FM CMH-HAT. SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH INCREASING WIND GRADIENT ACROSS FCA SUN NT.

CLOUDS WILL INCR SUN NT AND RAIN ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. DURING MON
MOST OF THE GUID DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW IN OR NR I95 CORRIDOR
ALONG THE PRIMARY SYSTEMS TRIPLE POINT...ENHANCING THE MOISTURE
FEED INTO THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEMS
ORGANIZATION VARIES AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THEY ALL AGREE ON ITS
FORMING.

MOST OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES PRODUCE AN INCH OR SO QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH OUTLIERS AROUND 2 INCHES AND 0.3 RESPECTIVELY.
MONDAY WILL BE A RAINY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT
FIRST...TRENDING COOLER THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A 500HPA CUTOFF
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND
CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

FIRST MONDAY INTO TUES MORNING THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL LIFT NE
THROUGH THE REGION AS A COASTAL LOW LIFTS NE ALONG THE I95
CORRIDOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN..TAPING OFF TUES
MRNG. THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHORT WVS AND A SERIES OF CDFNTS WILL
CROSS THE RGN...BRINGING PERIODS OF -SHRA...AND POSSIBLE -SHSN
HIR TRRN. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED...BUT
THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF PC CONDS. SINCE ITS A KINDA GENERIC
COOL...SHOWERY PERIOD...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 500HPA CUTOFF
AND MOST OF THE GUID IS IN AGREEMENT ON THAT SCENARIO...WILL
POPULATE WITH WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS WAS APPROACHING THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND SHORTLY. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH THE CHANCE FOR MVFR VIS WITHIN THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS...THE SURFACE WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18
KT THROUGH THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO WESTERLY DIRECTION AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS WITH A DECREASE IN
SHOWER COVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN. RH VALUES LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON....HWVR THE LIGHT RAINFALL
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS...AS RH VALUES
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT.

SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION WITH SOME
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH WITH LIGHT RAINFALL. IN ITS
WAKE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE AS
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. RH
VALUES WILL FALL TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT...AND COMBINED WITH THE WINDS
FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHER THAN SOME
LIGHT RAIN WITH A DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM THIS MORNING AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT...CONDITIONS
WILL BE DRY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SATELLITE AND SURVEY DATA FROM COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE
IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE
COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO
SNOW MELT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHERE CURRENTLY AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED...AND COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER



000
FXUS61 KALY 171019
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
619 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
CREST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
QUICKLY THROUGH WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH. IN ITS WAKE THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF BRISK WINDS...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY WITH FINE
WEATHER. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS HAS JUST CLEARED OUR
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES WITH THE NEXT LINE OF SHOWERS NOW
APPROACHING. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO A PERIOD OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING TO BE FOLLOWED BY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY
GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISC...H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS A COMPACT SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NE. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE
REGIONAL RADAR VIEW OF SCT-NUM SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWFA. PER THE
6-HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ASOS...ALL VALUES WERE LESS THAN TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS WAS JUST TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON RIVER WITH ANOTHER UPSTREAM LINE OF SHOWERS
APPROACHING. THIS SET OF SHOWERS WAS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING PER THE TIMING OF
THE RAP13/HRRR. SO WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS THEN QUICKLY DROP THOSE VALUES DOWN.
AS FOR SKY CONDITIONS...THIS TOO SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE MID
AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS SUBSIDENCE UNFOLDS ALONG WITH DRY AIR
ADVECTION. THE COMBINATION OF MID APRIL SUN ANGLE AND IMPROVEMENTS
TO SKY COVER...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MILD AS WE RETURN BACK
INTO THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES.

TONIGHT...ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS OR ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH OF ALBANY
WILL GIVE AWAY TO SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO GENERALLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER WITH 30S ACROSS
THE TERRAIN AND LOWER HALF OF THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MDLS SUITE (GFS/GEM/NAM/12UTC ECMWF) IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ONLY SOME 6 HRS TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH ARRIVAL OF MON MRNG
SYSTEM. RANGES FROM 06UTC IN GEM/NAM TO 18UTC IN PVS ECMWF WITH GFS
THE MID POINT AT 12UTC. WILL USE GFS FOR TIMING SUN NT INTO MON.

OTHERWISE SAT BEGINS W/WK HIGH PRESSURE FM OH VLY TO DELMARVA...AND
CDFNT DROPPING SE FM E GRTLKS. WHILE SOME KIND OF WK WIND SHIFT
LINE IS ALREADY E OF FCA...MAIN CDFNT IS ON YOW-TOL LN AT 12UTC...BUT
BY 18UTC GFS HAS IT JUST WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR...NAM A TAD SLOWER.
MAIN FEATURE SAT WILL BE POWERFUL 500HPA SHORT WV DIVING SE ACROSS
N NY AND NEW ENG...AND RESULTING RAPID CYCLOGENISUS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WELL E OF FCA. HWVR IT WILL LEAVE US IN THE GRADIENT BTWN
BUILDING ONTARIO 1026HPA SFC HIGH AND DEEPENING SFC LOW IN GULF
OF MAINE. RESULT COULD BE A PERIOD OF BRISK TO STRONG WINDS SAT
AFTN AND EARLY AFT FM THE NORTH. MOST OF THE GUID IS RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED AND THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS
AND -SHRA MAINLY N OF MHWK VLY. ITS COLD CORE QUICKLY PASSES
ACROSS THE N TIER SAT...AND HAS ONLY MODEST IMPACT ON TEMP PROFILE
FURTHER S...HIGHS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRI...EXCEPT IN THE FAR
NW FCA WHERE THEY WILL BE 5-10 DEG COOLER...60S IN MOST AREAS SOME
MID AND UPPER 50S IN N ADRDKS.

SAT NT AND SUN WILL BRING SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDING SE FM OTTAWA
VLY. WIND GRAD WILL QUICKLY RELAX AND DECOUPLE. WITH A COOL IDEAL
(FOR APRIL) RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A GEM AS 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS E ACROSS RGN AND SFC
HIGH IS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW RH...LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG SUN
AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS.

CONDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS 500HPA CUT OFF MOVES EAST INTO
THE N GRT PLAINS AND RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AT THE SFC DEEPENING
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE GRTLKS WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING S INTO OH VLY AND A WMFNT SE FM CMH-HAT. SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH INCREASING WIND GRADIENT ACROSS FCA SUN NT.

CLOUDS WILL INCR SUN NT AND RAIN ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. DURING MON
MOST OF THE GUID DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW IN OR NR I95 CORRIDOR
ALONG THE PRIMARY SYSTEMS TRIPLE POINT...ENHANCING THE MOISTURE
FEED INTO THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEMS
ORGANIZATION VARIES AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THEY ALL AGREE ON ITS
FORMING.

MOST OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES PRODUCE AN INCH OR SO QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH OUTLIERS AROUND 2 INCHES AND 0.3 RESPECTIVELY.
MONDAY WILL BE A RAINY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT
FIRST...TRENDING COOLER THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A 500HPA CUTOFF
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND
CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

FIRST MONDAY INTO TUES MORNING THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL LIFT NE
THROUGH THE REGION AS A COASTAL LOW LIFTS NE ALONG THE I95
CORRIDOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN..TAPING OFF TUES
MRNG. THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHORT WVS AND A SERIES OF CDFNTS WILL
CROSS THE RGN...BRINGING PERIODS OF -SHRA...AND POSSIBLE -SHSN
HIR TRRN. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED...BUT
THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF PC CONDS. SINCE ITS A KINDA GENERIC
COOL...SHOWERY PERIOD...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 500HPA CUTOFF
AND MOST OF THE GUID IS IN AGREEMENT ON THAT SCENARIO...WILL
POPULATE WITH WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS WAS APPROACHING THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND SHORTLY. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH THE CHANCE FOR MVFR VIS WITHIN THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS...THE SURFACE WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18
KT THROUGH THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO WESTERLY DIRECTION AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS WITH A DECREASE IN
SHOWER COVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN. RH VALUES LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON....HWVR THE LIGHT RAINFALL
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS...AS RH VALUES
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT.

SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION WITH SOME
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH WITH LIGHT RAINFALL. IN ITS
WAKE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE AS
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. RH
VALUES WILL FALL TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT...AND COMBINED WITH THE WINDS
FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHER THAN SOME
LIGHT RAIN WITH A DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM THIS MORNING AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT...CONDITIONS
WILL BE DRY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SATELLITE AND SURVEY DATA FROM COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE
IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE
COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO
SNOW MELT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHERE CURRENTLY AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED...AND COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER



000
FXUS61 KALY 171019
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
619 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
CREST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
QUICKLY THROUGH WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH. IN ITS WAKE THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF BRISK WINDS...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY WITH FINE
WEATHER. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS HAS JUST CLEARED OUR
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES WITH THE NEXT LINE OF SHOWERS NOW
APPROACHING. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SO A PERIOD OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING TO BE FOLLOWED BY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY
GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISC...H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS A COMPACT SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NE. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE
REGIONAL RADAR VIEW OF SCT-NUM SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWFA. PER THE
6-HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ASOS...ALL VALUES WERE LESS THAN TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS WAS JUST TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON RIVER WITH ANOTHER UPSTREAM LINE OF SHOWERS
APPROACHING. THIS SET OF SHOWERS WAS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING PER THE TIMING OF
THE RAP13/HRRR. SO WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS THEN QUICKLY DROP THOSE VALUES DOWN.
AS FOR SKY CONDITIONS...THIS TOO SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE MID
AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS SUBSIDENCE UNFOLDS ALONG WITH DRY AIR
ADVECTION. THE COMBINATION OF MID APRIL SUN ANGLE AND IMPROVEMENTS
TO SKY COVER...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MILD AS WE RETURN BACK
INTO THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES.

TONIGHT...ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS OR ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH OF ALBANY
WILL GIVE AWAY TO SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO GENERALLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER WITH 30S ACROSS
THE TERRAIN AND LOWER HALF OF THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MDLS SUITE (GFS/GEM/NAM/12UTC ECMWF) IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ONLY SOME 6 HRS TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH ARRIVAL OF MON MRNG
SYSTEM. RANGES FROM 06UTC IN GEM/NAM TO 18UTC IN PVS ECMWF WITH GFS
THE MID POINT AT 12UTC. WILL USE GFS FOR TIMING SUN NT INTO MON.

OTHERWISE SAT BEGINS W/WK HIGH PRESSURE FM OH VLY TO DELMARVA...AND
CDFNT DROPPING SE FM E GRTLKS. WHILE SOME KIND OF WK WIND SHIFT
LINE IS ALREADY E OF FCA...MAIN CDFNT IS ON YOW-TOL LN AT 12UTC...BUT
BY 18UTC GFS HAS IT JUST WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR...NAM A TAD SLOWER.
MAIN FEATURE SAT WILL BE POWERFUL 500HPA SHORT WV DIVING SE ACROSS
N NY AND NEW ENG...AND RESULTING RAPID CYCLOGENISUS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WELL E OF FCA. HWVR IT WILL LEAVE US IN THE GRADIENT BTWN
BUILDING ONTARIO 1026HPA SFC HIGH AND DEEPENING SFC LOW IN GULF
OF MAINE. RESULT COULD BE A PERIOD OF BRISK TO STRONG WINDS SAT
AFTN AND EARLY AFT FM THE NORTH. MOST OF THE GUID IS RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED AND THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS
AND -SHRA MAINLY N OF MHWK VLY. ITS COLD CORE QUICKLY PASSES
ACROSS THE N TIER SAT...AND HAS ONLY MODEST IMPACT ON TEMP PROFILE
FURTHER S...HIGHS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRI...EXCEPT IN THE FAR
NW FCA WHERE THEY WILL BE 5-10 DEG COOLER...60S IN MOST AREAS SOME
MID AND UPPER 50S IN N ADRDKS.

SAT NT AND SUN WILL BRING SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDING SE FM OTTAWA
VLY. WIND GRAD WILL QUICKLY RELAX AND DECOUPLE. WITH A COOL IDEAL
(FOR APRIL) RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A GEM AS 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS E ACROSS RGN AND SFC
HIGH IS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW RH...LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG SUN
AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS.

CONDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS 500HPA CUT OFF MOVES EAST INTO
THE N GRT PLAINS AND RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AT THE SFC DEEPENING
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE GRTLKS WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING S INTO OH VLY AND A WMFNT SE FM CMH-HAT. SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH INCREASING WIND GRADIENT ACROSS FCA SUN NT.

CLOUDS WILL INCR SUN NT AND RAIN ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. DURING MON
MOST OF THE GUID DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW IN OR NR I95 CORRIDOR
ALONG THE PRIMARY SYSTEMS TRIPLE POINT...ENHANCING THE MOISTURE
FEED INTO THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEMS
ORGANIZATION VARIES AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THEY ALL AGREE ON ITS
FORMING.

MOST OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES PRODUCE AN INCH OR SO QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH OUTLIERS AROUND 2 INCHES AND 0.3 RESPECTIVELY.
MONDAY WILL BE A RAINY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT
FIRST...TRENDING COOLER THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A 500HPA CUTOFF
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND
CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

FIRST MONDAY INTO TUES MORNING THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL LIFT NE
THROUGH THE REGION AS A COASTAL LOW LIFTS NE ALONG THE I95
CORRIDOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN..TAPING OFF TUES
MRNG. THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHORT WVS AND A SERIES OF CDFNTS WILL
CROSS THE RGN...BRINGING PERIODS OF -SHRA...AND POSSIBLE -SHSN
HIR TRRN. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED...BUT
THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF PC CONDS. SINCE ITS A KINDA GENERIC
COOL...SHOWERY PERIOD...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 500HPA CUTOFF
AND MOST OF THE GUID IS IN AGREEMENT ON THAT SCENARIO...WILL
POPULATE WITH WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS WAS APPROACHING THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND SHORTLY. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH THE CHANCE FOR MVFR VIS WITHIN THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS...THE SURFACE WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18
KT THROUGH THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO WESTERLY DIRECTION AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS WITH A DECREASE IN
SHOWER COVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN. RH VALUES LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON....HWVR THE LIGHT RAINFALL
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS...AS RH VALUES
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT.

SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION WITH SOME
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH WITH LIGHT RAINFALL. IN ITS
WAKE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE AS
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. RH
VALUES WILL FALL TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT...AND COMBINED WITH THE WINDS
FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHER THAN SOME
LIGHT RAIN WITH A DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM THIS MORNING AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT...CONDITIONS
WILL BE DRY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SATELLITE AND SURVEY DATA FROM COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE
IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE
COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO
SNOW MELT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHERE CURRENTLY AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED...AND COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER



000
FXUS61 KBTV 170814
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
414 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN SHOWERS. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND BRING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. SUNSHINE RETURNS FOR
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...EXITING TO
THE EAST BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE RATHER WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
RESULTING IN SOME DOWNSLOPING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE GREENS EARLY
TODAY AS WINDS GO WESTERLY. WITH DEPARTURE OF SHORTWAVE THIS
AFTERNOON...WE CAN EXPECT SOME CLEARING AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO
THE REGION. 925 MB TEMPS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY...SO
WITH A LITTLE AFTERNOON SUN...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH WELL
INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

ON SATURDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...AND
SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INDICATED FOR NORTHERN VERMONT...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WIND FIELDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTERS EXPECTED BE A BIT BELOW ZERO ACROSS VERMONT. SO SOME OF
THE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN SPOTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.

SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SATURDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN +6 AND +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH
WITH FULL SUN SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER LIKELY LASTING THROUGH ALL
OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW
AND SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD
FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM
DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF
40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PUSHING ON TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE
DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. UNFORTUNATELY THE UPPER LOW BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MIGHT EVEN RETROGRADE
NORTHWESTWARD A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO SO IT`S HARD TO
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S WHICH WILL SUPPORT
PTYPE AS RAIN DURING THE DAY, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATOP THE HIGHER SUMMITS, COULD BE ALL SNOW WITH
TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS. GOTTA LOVE
SPRING IN THE NORTH COUNTRY!

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CIGS UNDER BKN-OVC MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, BUT PER UPSTREAM OBS VSBY WILL REMAIN VFR.
AFTER PRECIP EXITS IS WHEN CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR FOR A SHORT
PERIOD, MAINLY AFTER 08Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND 11Z ACROSS
VERMONT. CIGS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS AND BECOME FEW-
SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS, TRENDING WEST TO SOUTHWEST AFTER 12Z. THERE
WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS WHERE GUSTS WILL PEAK UP TO 20KTS, LOCALLY
AT KMSS/KBTV FROM 06-08Z, AND AGAIN FROM 18-21Z THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 170814
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
414 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN SHOWERS. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND BRING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. SUNSHINE RETURNS FOR
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...EXITING TO
THE EAST BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE RATHER WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
RESULTING IN SOME DOWNSLOPING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE GREENS EARLY
TODAY AS WINDS GO WESTERLY. WITH DEPARTURE OF SHORTWAVE THIS
AFTERNOON...WE CAN EXPECT SOME CLEARING AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO
THE REGION. 925 MB TEMPS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY...SO
WITH A LITTLE AFTERNOON SUN...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH WELL
INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

ON SATURDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...AND
SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INDICATED FOR NORTHERN VERMONT...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WIND FIELDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTERS EXPECTED BE A BIT BELOW ZERO ACROSS VERMONT. SO SOME OF
THE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN SPOTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.

SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SATURDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN +6 AND +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH
WITH FULL SUN SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER LIKELY LASTING THROUGH ALL
OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW
AND SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD
FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM
DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF
40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PUSHING ON TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE
DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. UNFORTUNATELY THE UPPER LOW BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MIGHT EVEN RETROGRADE
NORTHWESTWARD A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO SO IT`S HARD TO
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S WHICH WILL SUPPORT
PTYPE AS RAIN DURING THE DAY, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATOP THE HIGHER SUMMITS, COULD BE ALL SNOW WITH
TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS. GOTTA LOVE
SPRING IN THE NORTH COUNTRY!

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CIGS UNDER BKN-OVC MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, BUT PER UPSTREAM OBS VSBY WILL REMAIN VFR.
AFTER PRECIP EXITS IS WHEN CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR FOR A SHORT
PERIOD, MAINLY AFTER 08Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND 11Z ACROSS
VERMONT. CIGS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS AND BECOME FEW-
SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS, TRENDING WEST TO SOUTHWEST AFTER 12Z. THERE
WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS WHERE GUSTS WILL PEAK UP TO 20KTS, LOCALLY
AT KMSS/KBTV FROM 06-08Z, AND AGAIN FROM 18-21Z THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 170814
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
414 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN SHOWERS. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND BRING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. SUNSHINE RETURNS FOR
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...EXITING TO
THE EAST BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE RATHER WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
RESULTING IN SOME DOWNSLOPING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE GREENS EARLY
TODAY AS WINDS GO WESTERLY. WITH DEPARTURE OF SHORTWAVE THIS
AFTERNOON...WE CAN EXPECT SOME CLEARING AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO
THE REGION. 925 MB TEMPS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY...SO
WITH A LITTLE AFTERNOON SUN...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH WELL
INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

ON SATURDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...AND
SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INDICATED FOR NORTHERN VERMONT...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WIND FIELDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTERS EXPECTED BE A BIT BELOW ZERO ACROSS VERMONT. SO SOME OF
THE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN SPOTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.

SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SATURDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN +6 AND +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH
WITH FULL SUN SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER LIKELY LASTING THROUGH ALL
OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW
AND SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD
FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM
DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF
40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PUSHING ON TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE
DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. UNFORTUNATELY THE UPPER LOW BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MIGHT EVEN RETROGRADE
NORTHWESTWARD A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO SO IT`S HARD TO
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S WHICH WILL SUPPORT
PTYPE AS RAIN DURING THE DAY, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATOP THE HIGHER SUMMITS, COULD BE ALL SNOW WITH
TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS. GOTTA LOVE
SPRING IN THE NORTH COUNTRY!

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CIGS UNDER BKN-OVC MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, BUT PER UPSTREAM OBS VSBY WILL REMAIN VFR.
AFTER PRECIP EXITS IS WHEN CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR FOR A SHORT
PERIOD, MAINLY AFTER 08Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND 11Z ACROSS
VERMONT. CIGS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS AND BECOME FEW-
SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS, TRENDING WEST TO SOUTHWEST AFTER 12Z. THERE
WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS WHERE GUSTS WILL PEAK UP TO 20KTS, LOCALLY
AT KMSS/KBTV FROM 06-08Z, AND AGAIN FROM 18-21Z THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 170814
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
414 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN SHOWERS. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY AND BRING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. SUNSHINE RETURNS FOR
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...EXITING TO
THE EAST BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE RATHER WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
RESULTING IN SOME DOWNSLOPING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE GREENS EARLY
TODAY AS WINDS GO WESTERLY. WITH DEPARTURE OF SHORTWAVE THIS
AFTERNOON...WE CAN EXPECT SOME CLEARING AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO
THE REGION. 925 MB TEMPS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY...SO
WITH A LITTLE AFTERNOON SUN...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH WELL
INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION
ACCOMPANIED BY JUST A FEW CLOUDS. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.

ON SATURDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC...AND
SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS INDICATED FOR NORTHERN VERMONT...WITH
LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WIND FIELDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY WITH
SHOWALTERS EXPECTED BE A BIT BELOW ZERO ACROSS VERMONT. SO SOME OF
THE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN SPOTS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.

SHORTWAVE DEPARTS SATURDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO BETWEEN +6 AND +8C BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH
WITH FULL SUN SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS IN THE LOWER TO
PERHAPS MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER LIKELY LASTING THROUGH ALL
OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW
AND SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD
FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM
DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF
40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PUSHING ON TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE
DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. UNFORTUNATELY THE UPPER LOW BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MIGHT EVEN RETROGRADE
NORTHWESTWARD A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO SO IT`S HARD TO
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S WHICH WILL SUPPORT
PTYPE AS RAIN DURING THE DAY, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATOP THE HIGHER SUMMITS, COULD BE ALL SNOW WITH
TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS. GOTTA LOVE
SPRING IN THE NORTH COUNTRY!

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CIGS UNDER BKN-OVC MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, BUT PER UPSTREAM OBS VSBY WILL REMAIN VFR.
AFTER PRECIP EXITS IS WHEN CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR FOR A SHORT
PERIOD, MAINLY AFTER 08Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND 11Z ACROSS
VERMONT. CIGS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS AND BECOME FEW-
SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS, TRENDING WEST TO SOUTHWEST AFTER 12Z. THERE
WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS WHERE GUSTS WILL PEAK UP TO 20KTS, LOCALLY
AT KMSS/KBTV FROM 06-08Z, AND AGAIN FROM 18-21Z THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 170807
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
407 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
CREST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
QUICKLY THROUGH WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH. IN ITS WAKE THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF BRISK WINDS...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY WITH FINE
WEATHER. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS A COMPACT SHORT WAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NE. THIS COINCIDES
WITH THE REGIONAL RADAR VIEW OF SCT-NUM SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWFA.
PER THE 6-HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ASOS...ALL VALUES WERE LESS
THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS WAS JUST
TO THE EAST OF HUDSON RIVER WITH ANOTHER UPSTREAM LINE OF SHOWERS
APPROACHING. THIS SET OF SHOWERS WAS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING PER THE TIMING OF
THE RAP13/HRRR. SO WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS THEN QUICKLY DROP THOSE VALUES DOWN.
AS FOR SKY CONDITIONS...THIS TOO SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE MID
AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS SUBSIDENCE UNFOLDS ALONG WITH DRY AIR
ADVECTION. THE COMBINATION OF MID APRIL SUN ANGLE AND IMPROVEMENTS
TO SKY COVER...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MILD AS WE RETURN BACK
INTO THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES.

TONIGHT...ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS OR ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH OF ALBANY
WILL GIVE AWAY TO SKIES BECOMING GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER WITH 30S ACROSS THE TERRAIN
AND LOWER HALF OF THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MDLS SUITE (GFS/GEM/NAM/12UTC ECMWF) IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ONLY SOME 6 HRS TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH ARRIVAL OF MON MRNG
SYSTEM. RANGES FROM 06UTC IN GEM/NAM TO 18UTC IN PVS ECMWF WITH GFS
THE MID POINT AT 12UTC. WILL USE GFS FOR TIMING SUN NT INTO MON.

OTHERWISE SAT BEGINS W/WK HIGH PRESSURE FM OH VLY TO DELMARVA...AND
CDFNT DROPPING SE FM E GRTLKS. WHILE SOME KIND OF WK WIND SHIFT
LINE IS ALREADY E OF FCA...MAIN CDFNT IS ON YOW-TOL LN AT 12UTC...BUT
BY 18UTC GFS HAS IT JUST WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR...NAM A TAD SLOWER.
MAIN FEATURE SAT WILL BE POWERFUL 500HPA SHORT WV DIVING SE ACROSS
N NY AND NEW ENG...AND RESULTING RAPID CYCLOGENISUS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WELL E OF FCA. HWVR IT WILL LEAVE US IN THE GRADIENT BTWN
BUILDING ONTARIO 1026HPA SFC HIGH AND DEEPENING SFC LOW IN GULF
OF MAINE. RESULT COULD BE A PERIOD OF BRISK TO STRONG WINDS SAT
AFTN AND EARLY AFT FM THE NORTH. MOST OF THE GUID IS RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED AND THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS
AND -SHRA MAINLY N OF MHWK VLY. ITS COLD CORE QUICKLY PASSES
ACROSS THE N TIER SAT...AND HAS ONLY MODEST IMPACT ON TEMP PROFILE
FURTHER S...HIGHS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRI...EXCEPT IN THE FAR
NW FCA WHERE THEY WILL BE 5-10 DEG COOLER...60S IN MOST AREAS SOME
MID AND UPPER 50S IN N ADRDKS.

SAT NT AND SUN WILL BRING SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDING SE FM OTTAWA
VLY. WIND GRAD WILL QUICKLY RELAX AND DECOUPLE. WITH A COOL IDEAL
(FOR APRIL) RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A GEM AS 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS E ACROSS RGN AND SFC
HIGH IS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW RH...LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG SUN
AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS.

CONDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS 500HPA CUT OFF MOVES EAST INTO
THE N GRT PLAINS AND RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AT THE SFC DEEPENING
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE GRTLKS WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING S INTO OH VLY AND A WMFNT SE FM CMH-HAT. SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH INCREASING WIND GRADIENT ACROSS FCA SUN NT.

CLOUDS WILL INCR SUN NT AND RAIN ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. DURING MON
MOST OF THE GUID DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW IN OR NR I95 CORRIDOR
ALONG THE PRIMARY SYSTEMS TRIPLE POINT...ENHANCING THE MOISTURE
FEED INTO THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEMS
ORGANIZATION VARIES AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THEY ALL AGREE ON ITS
FORMING.

MOST OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES PRODUCE AN INCH OR SO QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH OUTLIERS AROUND 2 INCHES AND 0.3 RESPECTIVELY.
MONDAY WILL BE A RAINY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT
FIRST...TRENDING COOLER THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A 500HPA CUTOFF
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND
CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

FIRST MONDAY INTO TUES MORNING THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL LIFT NE
THROUGH THE REGION AS A COASTAL LOW LIFTS NE ALONG THE I95
CORRIDOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN..TAPING OFF TUES
MRNG. THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHORT WVS AND A SERIES OF CDFNTS WILL
CROSS THE RGN...BRINGING PERIODS OF -SHRA...AND POSSIBLE -SHSN
HIR TRRN. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED...BUT
THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF PC CONDS. SINCE ITS A KINDA GENERIC
COOL...SHOWERY PERIOD...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 500HPA CUTOFF
AND MOST OF THE GUID IS IN AGREEMENT ON THAT SCENARIO...WILL
POPULATE WITH WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS AT TIMES WITH THE SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL PLACE A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME
HIGH END IFR CIGS AT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE INTERVALS OF LIGHTER WINDS
TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS WITH A DECREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN. RH VALUES LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON....HWVR THE LIGHT RAINFALL
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS...AS RH VALUES
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT.

SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION WITH SOME
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH WITH LIGHT RAINFALL. IN ITS
WAKE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE AS
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. RH
VALUES WILL FALL TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT...AND COMBINED WITH THE WINDS
FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHER THAN SOME
LIGHT RAIN WITH A DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM THIS MORNING AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT...CONDITIONS
WILL BE DRY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SATELLITE AND SURVEY DATA FROM COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE
IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE
COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO
SNOW MELT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHERE CURRENTLY AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED...AND COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




000
FXUS61 KALY 170807
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
407 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
CREST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
QUICKLY THROUGH WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH. IN ITS WAKE THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF BRISK WINDS...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY WITH FINE
WEATHER. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS A COMPACT SHORT WAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NE. THIS COINCIDES
WITH THE REGIONAL RADAR VIEW OF SCT-NUM SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWFA.
PER THE 6-HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ASOS...ALL VALUES WERE LESS
THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS WAS JUST
TO THE EAST OF HUDSON RIVER WITH ANOTHER UPSTREAM LINE OF SHOWERS
APPROACHING. THIS SET OF SHOWERS WAS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING PER THE TIMING OF
THE RAP13/HRRR. SO WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS THEN QUICKLY DROP THOSE VALUES DOWN.
AS FOR SKY CONDITIONS...THIS TOO SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE MID
AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS SUBSIDENCE UNFOLDS ALONG WITH DRY AIR
ADVECTION. THE COMBINATION OF MID APRIL SUN ANGLE AND IMPROVEMENTS
TO SKY COVER...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MILD AS WE RETURN BACK
INTO THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES.

TONIGHT...ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS OR ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH OF ALBANY
WILL GIVE AWAY TO SKIES BECOMING GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER WITH 30S ACROSS THE TERRAIN
AND LOWER HALF OF THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MDLS SUITE (GFS/GEM/NAM/12UTC ECMWF) IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ONLY SOME 6 HRS TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH ARRIVAL OF MON MRNG
SYSTEM. RANGES FROM 06UTC IN GEM/NAM TO 18UTC IN PVS ECMWF WITH GFS
THE MID POINT AT 12UTC. WILL USE GFS FOR TIMING SUN NT INTO MON.

OTHERWISE SAT BEGINS W/WK HIGH PRESSURE FM OH VLY TO DELMARVA...AND
CDFNT DROPPING SE FM E GRTLKS. WHILE SOME KIND OF WK WIND SHIFT
LINE IS ALREADY E OF FCA...MAIN CDFNT IS ON YOW-TOL LN AT 12UTC...BUT
BY 18UTC GFS HAS IT JUST WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR...NAM A TAD SLOWER.
MAIN FEATURE SAT WILL BE POWERFUL 500HPA SHORT WV DIVING SE ACROSS
N NY AND NEW ENG...AND RESULTING RAPID CYCLOGENISUS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WELL E OF FCA. HWVR IT WILL LEAVE US IN THE GRADIENT BTWN
BUILDING ONTARIO 1026HPA SFC HIGH AND DEEPENING SFC LOW IN GULF
OF MAINE. RESULT COULD BE A PERIOD OF BRISK TO STRONG WINDS SAT
AFTN AND EARLY AFT FM THE NORTH. MOST OF THE GUID IS RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED AND THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS
AND -SHRA MAINLY N OF MHWK VLY. ITS COLD CORE QUICKLY PASSES
ACROSS THE N TIER SAT...AND HAS ONLY MODEST IMPACT ON TEMP PROFILE
FURTHER S...HIGHS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRI...EXCEPT IN THE FAR
NW FCA WHERE THEY WILL BE 5-10 DEG COOLER...60S IN MOST AREAS SOME
MID AND UPPER 50S IN N ADRDKS.

SAT NT AND SUN WILL BRING SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDING SE FM OTTAWA
VLY. WIND GRAD WILL QUICKLY RELAX AND DECOUPLE. WITH A COOL IDEAL
(FOR APRIL) RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A GEM AS 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS E ACROSS RGN AND SFC
HIGH IS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW RH...LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG SUN
AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS.

CONDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS 500HPA CUT OFF MOVES EAST INTO
THE N GRT PLAINS AND RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AT THE SFC DEEPENING
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE GRTLKS WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING S INTO OH VLY AND A WMFNT SE FM CMH-HAT. SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH INCREASING WIND GRADIENT ACROSS FCA SUN NT.

CLOUDS WILL INCR SUN NT AND RAIN ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. DURING MON
MOST OF THE GUID DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW IN OR NR I95 CORRIDOR
ALONG THE PRIMARY SYSTEMS TRIPLE POINT...ENHANCING THE MOISTURE
FEED INTO THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEMS
ORGANIZATION VARIES AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THEY ALL AGREE ON ITS
FORMING.

MOST OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES PRODUCE AN INCH OR SO QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH OUTLIERS AROUND 2 INCHES AND 0.3 RESPECTIVELY.
MONDAY WILL BE A RAINY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT
FIRST...TRENDING COOLER THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A 500HPA CUTOFF
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND
CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

FIRST MONDAY INTO TUES MORNING THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL LIFT NE
THROUGH THE REGION AS A COASTAL LOW LIFTS NE ALONG THE I95
CORRIDOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN..TAPING OFF TUES
MRNG. THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHORT WVS AND A SERIES OF CDFNTS WILL
CROSS THE RGN...BRINGING PERIODS OF -SHRA...AND POSSIBLE -SHSN
HIR TRRN. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED...BUT
THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF PC CONDS. SINCE ITS A KINDA GENERIC
COOL...SHOWERY PERIOD...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 500HPA CUTOFF
AND MOST OF THE GUID IS IN AGREEMENT ON THAT SCENARIO...WILL
POPULATE WITH WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS AT TIMES WITH THE SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL PLACE A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME
HIGH END IFR CIGS AT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE INTERVALS OF LIGHTER WINDS
TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS WITH A DECREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN. RH VALUES LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON....HWVR THE LIGHT RAINFALL
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS...AS RH VALUES
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT.

SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION WITH SOME
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH WITH LIGHT RAINFALL. IN ITS
WAKE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE AS
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. RH
VALUES WILL FALL TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT...AND COMBINED WITH THE WINDS
FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHER THAN SOME
LIGHT RAIN WITH A DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM THIS MORNING AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT...CONDITIONS
WILL BE DRY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SATELLITE AND SURVEY DATA FROM COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE
IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE
COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO
SNOW MELT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHERE CURRENTLY AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED...AND COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY



000
FXUS61 KALY 170747
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
347 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
CREST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
QUICKLY THROUGH WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH. IN ITS WAKE THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF BRISK WINDS...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY WITH FINE
WEATHER. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS WAS JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER AS WE WILL REFRESH THE POPS/WX GRIDS TO SPEED UP
TIMING A LITTLE BIT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN A BIT ON THE
MILDER SIDE THANKS TO A SOUTHERLY BREEZE...CLOUD COVER AND THE
APPROACH OF SHOWERS. SO WE HAVE ADJUSTED UP THE HOURLY TEMPS A
BIT BY LEFT THE OVERNIGHT LOWS INTACT.

BASED ON UPSTREAM 3-5 HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...NUDGED DOWN THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER...IT IS
TOUGH TO TIME THE SATURATION OF THE LAYER AND HOW IT WILL AFFECT
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

TODAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SATURDAY...A
CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT IT
COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE AREA OR
SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH SUNSHINE.
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY IMPACT
WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING FAIRLY
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A ANTI
CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE
MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY). IT WILL
BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MDLS SUITE (GFS/GEM/NAM/12UTC ECMWF) IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ONLY SOME 6 HRS TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH ARRIVAL OF MON MRNG
SYSTEM. RANGES FROM 06UTC IN GEM/NAM TO 18UTC IN PVS ECMWF WITH GFS
THE MID POINT AT 12UTC. WILL USE GFS FOR TIMING SUN NT INTO MON.

OTHERWISE SAT BEGINS W/WK HIGH PRESSURE FM OH VLY TO DELMARVA...AND
CDFNT DROPPING SE FM E GRTLKS. WHILE SOME KIND OF WK WIND SHIFT
LINE IS ALREADY E OF FCA...MAIN CDFNT IS ON YOW-TOL LN AT 12UTC...BUT
BY 18UTC GFS HAS IT JUST WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR...NAM A TAD SLOWER.
MAIN FEATURE SAT WILL BE POWERFUL 500HPA SHORT WV DIVING SE ACROSS
N NY AND NEW ENG...AND RESULTING RAPID CYCLOGENISUS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WELL E OF FCA. HWVR IT WILL LEAVE US IN THE GRADIENT BTWN
BUILDING ONTARIO 1026HPA SFC HIGH AND DEEPENING SFC LOW IN GULF
OF MAINE. RESULT COULD BE A PERIOD OF BRISK TO STRONG WINDS SAT
AFTN AND EARLY AFT FM THE NORTH. MOST OF THE GUID IS RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED AND THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS
AND -SHRA MAINLY N OF MHWK VLY. ITS COLD CORE QUICKLY PASSES
ACROSS THE N TIER SAT...AND HAS ONLY MODEST IMPACT ON TEMP PROFILE
FURTHER S...HIGHS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRI...EXCEPT IN THE FAR
NW FCA WHERE THEY WILL BE 5-10 DEG COOLER...60S IN MOST AREAS SOME
MID AND UPPER 50S IN N ADRDKS.

SAT NT AND SUN WILL BRING SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDING SE FM OTTAWA
VLY. WIND GRAD WILL QUICKLY RELAX AND DECOUPLE. WITH A COOL IDEAL
(FOR APRIL) RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A GEM AS 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS E ACROSS RGN AND SFC
HIGH IS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW RH...LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG SUN
AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS.

CONDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS 500HPA CUT OFF MOVES EAST INTO
THE N GRT PLAINS AND RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AT THE SFC DEEPENING
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE GRTLKS WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING S INTO OH VLY AND A WMFNT SE FM CMH-HAT. SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH INCREASING WIND GRADIENT ACROSS FCA SUN NT.

CLOUDS WILL INCR SUN NT AND RAIN ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. DURING MON
MOST OF THE GUID DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW IN OR NR I95 CORRIDOR
ALONG THE PRIMARY SYSTEMS TRIPLE POINT...ENHANCING THE MOISTURE
FEED INTO THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEMS
ORGANIZATION VARIES AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THEY ALL AGREE ON ITS
FORMING.

MOST OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES PRODUCE AN INCH OR SO QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH OUTLIERS AROUND 2 INCHES AND 0.3 RESPECTIVELY.
MONDAY WILL BE A RAINY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT
FIRST...TRENDING COOLER THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A 500HPA CUTOFF
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND
CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

FIRST MONDAY INTO TUES MORNING THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL LIFT NE
THROUGH THE REGION AS A COASTAL LOW LIFTS NE ALONG THE I95
CORRIDOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN..TAPING OFF TUES
MRNG. THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHORT WVS AND A SERIES OF CDFNTS WILL
CROSS THE RGN...BRINGING PERIODS OF -SHRA...AND POSSIBLE -SHSN
HIR TRRN. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED...BUT
THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF PC CONDS. SINCE ITS A KINDA GENERIC
COOL...SHOWERY PERIOD...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 500HPA CUTOFF
AND MOST OF THE GUID IS IN AGREEMENT ON THAT SCENARIO...WILL
POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS AT TIMES WITH THE SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL PLACE A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME
HIGH END IFR CIGS AT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE INTERVALS OF LIGHTER WINDS
TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS WITH A DECREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN. RH VALUES LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON....HWVR THE LIGHT RAINFALL
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS...AS RH VALUES
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT.

SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION WITH SOME
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH WITH LIGHT RAINFALL. IN ITS
WAKE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE AS
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. RH
VALUES WILL FALL TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT...AND COMBINED WITH THE WINDS
FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHER THAN SOME
LIGHT RAIN WITH A DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM THIS MORNING AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT...CONDITIONS
WILL BE DRY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SATELLITE AND SURVEY DATA FROM COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE
IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE
COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO
SNOW MELT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHERE CURRENTLY AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED...AND COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SND/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER



000
FXUS61 KALY 170747
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
347 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
CREST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
QUICKLY THROUGH WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH. IN ITS WAKE THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF BRISK WINDS...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY WITH FINE
WEATHER. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS WAS JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER AS WE WILL REFRESH THE POPS/WX GRIDS TO SPEED UP
TIMING A LITTLE BIT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN A BIT ON THE
MILDER SIDE THANKS TO A SOUTHERLY BREEZE...CLOUD COVER AND THE
APPROACH OF SHOWERS. SO WE HAVE ADJUSTED UP THE HOURLY TEMPS A
BIT BY LEFT THE OVERNIGHT LOWS INTACT.

BASED ON UPSTREAM 3-5 HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...NUDGED DOWN THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER...IT IS
TOUGH TO TIME THE SATURATION OF THE LAYER AND HOW IT WILL AFFECT
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

TODAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SATURDAY...A
CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT IT
COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE AREA OR
SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH SUNSHINE.
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY IMPACT
WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING FAIRLY
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A ANTI
CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE
MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY). IT WILL
BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MDLS SUITE (GFS/GEM/NAM/12UTC ECMWF) IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ONLY SOME 6 HRS TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH ARRIVAL OF MON MRNG
SYSTEM. RANGES FROM 06UTC IN GEM/NAM TO 18UTC IN PVS ECMWF WITH GFS
THE MID POINT AT 12UTC. WILL USE GFS FOR TIMING SUN NT INTO MON.

OTHERWISE SAT BEGINS W/WK HIGH PRESSURE FM OH VLY TO DELMARVA...AND
CDFNT DROPPING SE FM E GRTLKS. WHILE SOME KIND OF WK WIND SHIFT
LINE IS ALREADY E OF FCA...MAIN CDFNT IS ON YOW-TOL LN AT 12UTC...BUT
BY 18UTC GFS HAS IT JUST WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR...NAM A TAD SLOWER.
MAIN FEATURE SAT WILL BE POWERFUL 500HPA SHORT WV DIVING SE ACROSS
N NY AND NEW ENG...AND RESULTING RAPID CYCLOGENISUS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WELL E OF FCA. HWVR IT WILL LEAVE US IN THE GRADIENT BTWN
BUILDING ONTARIO 1026HPA SFC HIGH AND DEEPENING SFC LOW IN GULF
OF MAINE. RESULT COULD BE A PERIOD OF BRISK TO STRONG WINDS SAT
AFTN AND EARLY AFT FM THE NORTH. MOST OF THE GUID IS RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED AND THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS
AND -SHRA MAINLY N OF MHWK VLY. ITS COLD CORE QUICKLY PASSES
ACROSS THE N TIER SAT...AND HAS ONLY MODEST IMPACT ON TEMP PROFILE
FURTHER S...HIGHS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRI...EXCEPT IN THE FAR
NW FCA WHERE THEY WILL BE 5-10 DEG COOLER...60S IN MOST AREAS SOME
MID AND UPPER 50S IN N ADRDKS.

SAT NT AND SUN WILL BRING SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDING SE FM OTTAWA
VLY. WIND GRAD WILL QUICKLY RELAX AND DECOUPLE. WITH A COOL IDEAL
(FOR APRIL) RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A GEM AS 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS E ACROSS RGN AND SFC
HIGH IS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW RH...LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG SUN
AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS.

CONDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS 500HPA CUT OFF MOVES EAST INTO
THE N GRT PLAINS AND RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AT THE SFC DEEPENING
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE GRTLKS WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING S INTO OH VLY AND A WMFNT SE FM CMH-HAT. SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH INCREASING WIND GRADIENT ACROSS FCA SUN NT.

CLOUDS WILL INCR SUN NT AND RAIN ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. DURING MON
MOST OF THE GUID DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW IN OR NR I95 CORRIDOR
ALONG THE PRIMARY SYSTEMS TRIPLE POINT...ENHANCING THE MOISTURE
FEED INTO THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEMS
ORGANIZATION VARIES AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THEY ALL AGREE ON ITS
FORMING.

MOST OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES PRODUCE AN INCH OR SO QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH OUTLIERS AROUND 2 INCHES AND 0.3 RESPECTIVELY.
MONDAY WILL BE A RAINY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT
FIRST...TRENDING COOLER THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A 500HPA CUTOFF
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND
CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

FIRST MONDAY INTO TUES MORNING THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL LIFT NE
THROUGH THE REGION AS A COASTAL LOW LIFTS NE ALONG THE I95
CORRIDOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN..TAPING OFF TUES
MRNG. THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHORT WVS AND A SERIES OF CDFNTS WILL
CROSS THE RGN...BRINGING PERIODS OF -SHRA...AND POSSIBLE -SHSN
HIR TRRN. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED...BUT
THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF PC CONDS. SINCE ITS A KINDA GENERIC
COOL...SHOWERY PERIOD...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 500HPA CUTOFF
AND MOST OF THE GUID IS IN AGREEMENT ON THAT SCENARIO...WILL
POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS AT TIMES WITH THE SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL PLACE A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME
HIGH END IFR CIGS AT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE INTERVALS OF LIGHTER WINDS
TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS WITH A DECREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN. RH VALUES LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON....HWVR THE LIGHT RAINFALL
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS...AS RH VALUES
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT.

SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION WITH SOME
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH WITH LIGHT RAINFALL. IN ITS
WAKE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE AS
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. RH
VALUES WILL FALL TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT...AND COMBINED WITH THE WINDS
FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHER THAN SOME
LIGHT RAIN WITH A DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM THIS MORNING AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT...CONDITIONS
WILL BE DRY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SATELLITE AND SURVEY DATA FROM COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE
IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE
COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO
SNOW MELT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHERE CURRENTLY AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED...AND COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SND/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KALY 170747
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
347 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
CREST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
QUICKLY THROUGH WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH. IN ITS WAKE THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF BRISK WINDS...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY WITH FINE
WEATHER. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS WAS JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER AS WE WILL REFRESH THE POPS/WX GRIDS TO SPEED UP
TIMING A LITTLE BIT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN A BIT ON THE
MILDER SIDE THANKS TO A SOUTHERLY BREEZE...CLOUD COVER AND THE
APPROACH OF SHOWERS. SO WE HAVE ADJUSTED UP THE HOURLY TEMPS A
BIT BY LEFT THE OVERNIGHT LOWS INTACT.

BASED ON UPSTREAM 3-5 HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...NUDGED DOWN THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER...IT IS
TOUGH TO TIME THE SATURATION OF THE LAYER AND HOW IT WILL AFFECT
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

TODAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SATURDAY...A
CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT IT
COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE AREA OR
SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH SUNSHINE.
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY IMPACT
WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING FAIRLY
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A ANTI
CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE
MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY). IT WILL
BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MDLS SUITE (GFS/GEM/NAM/12UTC ECMWF) IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ONLY SOME 6 HRS TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH ARRIVAL OF MON MRNG
SYSTEM. RANGES FROM 06UTC IN GEM/NAM TO 18UTC IN PVS ECMWF WITH GFS
THE MID POINT AT 12UTC. WILL USE GFS FOR TIMING SUN NT INTO MON.

OTHERWISE SAT BEGINS W/WK HIGH PRESSURE FM OH VLY TO DELMARVA...AND
CDFNT DROPPING SE FM E GRTLKS. WHILE SOME KIND OF WK WIND SHIFT
LINE IS ALREADY E OF FCA...MAIN CDFNT IS ON YOW-TOL LN AT 12UTC...BUT
BY 18UTC GFS HAS IT JUST WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR...NAM A TAD SLOWER.
MAIN FEATURE SAT WILL BE POWERFUL 500HPA SHORT WV DIVING SE ACROSS
N NY AND NEW ENG...AND RESULTING RAPID CYCLOGENISUS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WELL E OF FCA. HWVR IT WILL LEAVE US IN THE GRADIENT BTWN
BUILDING ONTARIO 1026HPA SFC HIGH AND DEEPENING SFC LOW IN GULF
OF MAINE. RESULT COULD BE A PERIOD OF BRISK TO STRONG WINDS SAT
AFTN AND EARLY AFT FM THE NORTH. MOST OF THE GUID IS RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED AND THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS
AND -SHRA MAINLY N OF MHWK VLY. ITS COLD CORE QUICKLY PASSES
ACROSS THE N TIER SAT...AND HAS ONLY MODEST IMPACT ON TEMP PROFILE
FURTHER S...HIGHS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRI...EXCEPT IN THE FAR
NW FCA WHERE THEY WILL BE 5-10 DEG COOLER...60S IN MOST AREAS SOME
MID AND UPPER 50S IN N ADRDKS.

SAT NT AND SUN WILL BRING SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDING SE FM OTTAWA
VLY. WIND GRAD WILL QUICKLY RELAX AND DECOUPLE. WITH A COOL IDEAL
(FOR APRIL) RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A GEM AS 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS E ACROSS RGN AND SFC
HIGH IS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW RH...LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG SUN
AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS.

CONDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS 500HPA CUT OFF MOVES EAST INTO
THE N GRT PLAINS AND RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AT THE SFC DEEPENING
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE GRTLKS WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING S INTO OH VLY AND A WMFNT SE FM CMH-HAT. SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH INCREASING WIND GRADIENT ACROSS FCA SUN NT.

CLOUDS WILL INCR SUN NT AND RAIN ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. DURING MON
MOST OF THE GUID DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW IN OR NR I95 CORRIDOR
ALONG THE PRIMARY SYSTEMS TRIPLE POINT...ENHANCING THE MOISTURE
FEED INTO THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEMS
ORGANIZATION VARIES AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THEY ALL AGREE ON ITS
FORMING.

MOST OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES PRODUCE AN INCH OR SO QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH OUTLIERS AROUND 2 INCHES AND 0.3 RESPECTIVELY.
MONDAY WILL BE A RAINY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT
FIRST...TRENDING COOLER THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A 500HPA CUTOFF
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND
CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

FIRST MONDAY INTO TUES MORNING THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL LIFT NE
THROUGH THE REGION AS A COASTAL LOW LIFTS NE ALONG THE I95
CORRIDOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN..TAPING OFF TUES
MRNG. THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHORT WVS AND A SERIES OF CDFNTS WILL
CROSS THE RGN...BRINGING PERIODS OF -SHRA...AND POSSIBLE -SHSN
HIR TRRN. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED...BUT
THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF PC CONDS. SINCE ITS A KINDA GENERIC
COOL...SHOWERY PERIOD...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 500HPA CUTOFF
AND MOST OF THE GUID IS IN AGREEMENT ON THAT SCENARIO...WILL
POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS AT TIMES WITH THE SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL PLACE A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME
HIGH END IFR CIGS AT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE INTERVALS OF LIGHTER WINDS
TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS WITH A DECREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN. RH VALUES LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON....HWVR THE LIGHT RAINFALL
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS...AS RH VALUES
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT.

SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION WITH SOME
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH WITH LIGHT RAINFALL. IN ITS
WAKE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE AS
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. RH
VALUES WILL FALL TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT...AND COMBINED WITH THE WINDS
FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHER THAN SOME
LIGHT RAIN WITH A DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM THIS MORNING AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT...CONDITIONS
WILL BE DRY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SATELLITE AND SURVEY DATA FROM COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE
IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE
COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO
SNOW MELT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHERE CURRENTLY AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED...AND COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SND/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER



000
FXUS61 KALY 170747
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
347 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
CREST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
QUICKLY THROUGH WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH. IN ITS WAKE THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF BRISK WINDS...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY WITH FINE
WEATHER. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS WAS JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER AS WE WILL REFRESH THE POPS/WX GRIDS TO SPEED UP
TIMING A LITTLE BIT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN A BIT ON THE
MILDER SIDE THANKS TO A SOUTHERLY BREEZE...CLOUD COVER AND THE
APPROACH OF SHOWERS. SO WE HAVE ADJUSTED UP THE HOURLY TEMPS A
BIT BY LEFT THE OVERNIGHT LOWS INTACT.

BASED ON UPSTREAM 3-5 HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...NUDGED DOWN THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER...IT IS
TOUGH TO TIME THE SATURATION OF THE LAYER AND HOW IT WILL AFFECT
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

TODAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SATURDAY...A
CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT IT
COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE AREA OR
SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH SUNSHINE.
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY IMPACT
WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING FAIRLY
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A ANTI
CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE
MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY). IT WILL
BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MDLS SUITE (GFS/GEM/NAM/12UTC ECMWF) IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ONLY SOME 6 HRS TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH ARRIVAL OF MON MRNG
SYSTEM. RANGES FROM 06UTC IN GEM/NAM TO 18UTC IN PVS ECMWF WITH GFS
THE MID POINT AT 12UTC. WILL USE GFS FOR TIMING SUN NT INTO MON.

OTHERWISE SAT BEGINS W/WK HIGH PRESSURE FM OH VLY TO DELMARVA...AND
CDFNT DROPPING SE FM E GRTLKS. WHILE SOME KIND OF WK WIND SHIFT
LINE IS ALREADY E OF FCA...MAIN CDFNT IS ON YOW-TOL LN AT 12UTC...BUT
BY 18UTC GFS HAS IT JUST WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR...NAM A TAD SLOWER.
MAIN FEATURE SAT WILL BE POWERFUL 500HPA SHORT WV DIVING SE ACROSS
N NY AND NEW ENG...AND RESULTING RAPID CYCLOGENISUS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WELL E OF FCA. HWVR IT WILL LEAVE US IN THE GRADIENT BTWN
BUILDING ONTARIO 1026HPA SFC HIGH AND DEEPENING SFC LOW IN GULF
OF MAINE. RESULT COULD BE A PERIOD OF BRISK TO STRONG WINDS SAT
AFTN AND EARLY AFT FM THE NORTH. MOST OF THE GUID IS RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED AND THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS
AND -SHRA MAINLY N OF MHWK VLY. ITS COLD CORE QUICKLY PASSES
ACROSS THE N TIER SAT...AND HAS ONLY MODEST IMPACT ON TEMP PROFILE
FURTHER S...HIGHS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRI...EXCEPT IN THE FAR
NW FCA WHERE THEY WILL BE 5-10 DEG COOLER...60S IN MOST AREAS SOME
MID AND UPPER 50S IN N ADRDKS.

SAT NT AND SUN WILL BRING SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDING SE FM OTTAWA
VLY. WIND GRAD WILL QUICKLY RELAX AND DECOUPLE. WITH A COOL IDEAL
(FOR APRIL) RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A GEM AS 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS E ACROSS RGN AND SFC
HIGH IS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW RH...LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG SUN
AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS.

CONDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS 500HPA CUT OFF MOVES EAST INTO
THE N GRT PLAINS AND RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AT THE SFC DEEPENING
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE GRTLKS WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING S INTO OH VLY AND A WMFNT SE FM CMH-HAT. SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH INCREASING WIND GRADIENT ACROSS FCA SUN NT.

CLOUDS WILL INCR SUN NT AND RAIN ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. DURING MON
MOST OF THE GUID DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW IN OR NR I95 CORRIDOR
ALONG THE PRIMARY SYSTEMS TRIPLE POINT...ENHANCING THE MOISTURE
FEED INTO THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEMS
ORGANIZATION VARIES AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THEY ALL AGREE ON ITS
FORMING.

MOST OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES PRODUCE AN INCH OR SO QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH OUTLIERS AROUND 2 INCHES AND 0.3 RESPECTIVELY.
MONDAY WILL BE A RAINY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT
FIRST...TRENDING COOLER THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A 500HPA CUTOFF
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR GRTLKS AND S ONT...AS VARIOUS SHORT WVS AND
CDFNTS PIVOT AROUND ITS BASE...IMPACTING THE REGION.

FIRST MONDAY INTO TUES MORNING THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL LIFT NE
THROUGH THE REGION AS A COASTAL LOW LIFTS NE ALONG THE I95
CORRIDOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN..TAPING OFF TUES
MRNG. THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHORT WVS AND A SERIES OF CDFNTS WILL
CROSS THE RGN...BRINGING PERIODS OF -SHRA...AND POSSIBLE -SHSN
HIR TRRN. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED...BUT
THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF PC CONDS. SINCE ITS A KINDA GENERIC
COOL...SHOWERY PERIOD...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 500HPA CUTOFF
AND MOST OF THE GUID IS IN AGREEMENT ON THAT SCENARIO...WILL
POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS AT TIMES WITH THE SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL PLACE A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME
HIGH END IFR CIGS AT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE INTERVALS OF LIGHTER WINDS
TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS WITH A DECREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING...WITH GENERALLY
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN. RH VALUES LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON....HWVR THE LIGHT RAINFALL
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIR AND DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS...AS RH VALUES
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT.

SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION WITH SOME
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH WITH LIGHT RAINFALL. IN ITS
WAKE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE AS
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35MPH. RH
VALUES WILL FALL TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT...AND COMBINED WITH THE WINDS
FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHER THAN SOME
LIGHT RAIN WITH A DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM THIS MORNING AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT...CONDITIONS
WILL BE DRY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SATELLITE AND SURVEY DATA FROM COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE
IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE
COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO
SNOW MELT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHERE CURRENTLY AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED...AND COMBINED WITH RISES FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT
NORTH...MAY RESULT IN SOME NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS TO START THE
WEEK.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SND/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER




000
FXUS61 KBTV 170742
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
342 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BRINGING OCCASIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BRIEF
DRYING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA AND BRINGS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1244 AM EDT FRIDAY...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN NEW YORK AS OF MIDNIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ACROSS VERMONT OVERNIGHT. THE
SHOWERS ARE THE RESULT OF A WEAK SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH ABOUT 15Z FRIDAY. WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY SEE A COMPONENT OF DOWNSLOPE DRYING
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...THEN PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AS WINDS GO WESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE
GREENS. OVERALL QPF WILL BE LIGHT...RANGING FROM SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD...ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON TO PAST NIGHTS...WITH LOWS IN THE
40S...TO AROUND 50 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. MADE A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/TEMPS FOR NEXT FEW HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THUS DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING...BUT A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT. AGAIN...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
SHOWERS THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER LIKELY LASTING THROUGH ALL
OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW
AND SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD
FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM
DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF
40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PUSHING ON TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE
DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. UNFORTUNATELY THE UPPER LOW BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MIGHT EVEN RETROGRADE
NORTHWESTWARD A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO SO IT`S HARD TO
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S WHICH WILL SUPPORT
PTYPE AS RAIN DURING THE DAY, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATOP THE HIGHER SUMMITS, COULD BE ALL SNOW WITH
TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS. GOTTA LOVE
SPRING IN THE NORTH COUNTRY!

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CIGS UNDER BKN-OVC MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, BUT PER UPSTREAM OBS VSBY WILL REMAIN VFR.
AFTER PRECIP EXITS IS WHEN CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR FOR A SHORT
PERIOD, MAINLY AFTER 08Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND 11Z ACROSS
VERMONT. CIGS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS AND BECOME FEW-
SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS, TRENDING WEST TO SOUTHWEST AFTER 12Z. THERE
WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS WHERE GUSTS WILL PEAK UP TO 20KTS, LOCALLY
AT KMSS/KBTV FROM 06-08Z, AND AGAIN FROM 18-21Z THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 170742
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
342 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BRINGING OCCASIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BRIEF
DRYING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA AND BRINGS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1244 AM EDT FRIDAY...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN NEW YORK AS OF MIDNIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ACROSS VERMONT OVERNIGHT. THE
SHOWERS ARE THE RESULT OF A WEAK SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH ABOUT 15Z FRIDAY. WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY SEE A COMPONENT OF DOWNSLOPE DRYING
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...THEN PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AS WINDS GO WESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE
GREENS. OVERALL QPF WILL BE LIGHT...RANGING FROM SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD...ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON TO PAST NIGHTS...WITH LOWS IN THE
40S...TO AROUND 50 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. MADE A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/TEMPS FOR NEXT FEW HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THUS DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING...BUT A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT. AGAIN...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
SHOWERS THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT FRIDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH OF WEATHER LIKELY LASTING THROUGH ALL
OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS DEVELOPS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW
AND SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD
FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TAP INTO RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM
DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST 925-850MB JET OF
40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PUSHING ON TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE
DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH
OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. UNFORTUNATELY THE UPPER LOW BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MIGHT EVEN RETROGRADE
NORTHWESTWARD A LITTLE BIT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO SO IT`S HARD TO
RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S WHICH WILL SUPPORT
PTYPE AS RAIN DURING THE DAY, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATOP THE HIGHER SUMMITS, COULD BE ALL SNOW WITH
TEMPS HOVERING IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS. GOTTA LOVE
SPRING IN THE NORTH COUNTRY!

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CIGS UNDER BKN-OVC MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, BUT PER UPSTREAM OBS VSBY WILL REMAIN VFR.
AFTER PRECIP EXITS IS WHEN CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR FOR A SHORT
PERIOD, MAINLY AFTER 08Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND 11Z ACROSS
VERMONT. CIGS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS AND BECOME FEW-
SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS, TRENDING WEST TO SOUTHWEST AFTER 12Z. THERE
WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS WHERE GUSTS WILL PEAK UP TO 20KTS, LOCALLY
AT KMSS/KBTV FROM 06-08Z, AND AGAIN FROM 18-21Z THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 170602
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
202 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
CREST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
QUICKLY THROUGH WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH. IN ITS WAKE THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF BRISK WINDS...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY WITH FINE
WEATHER. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS WAS JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER AS WE WILL REFRESH THE POPS/WX GRIDS TO SPEED UP
TIMING A LITTLE BIT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN A BIT ON THE
MILDER SIDE THANKS TO A SOUTHERLY BREEZE...CLOUD COVER AND THE
APPROACH OF SHOWERS. SO WE HAVE ADJUSTED UP THE HOURLY TEMPS A
BIT BY LEFT THE OVERNIGHT LOWS INTACT.

BASED ON UPSTREAM 3-5 HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...NUDGED DOWN THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER...IT IS
TOUGH TO TIME THE SATURATION OF THE LAYER AND HOW IT WILL AFFECT
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

TODAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SATURDAY...A
CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT IT
COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE AREA OR
SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH SUNSHINE.
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY IMPACT
WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING FAIRLY
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A ANTI
CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE
MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY). IT WILL
BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MDLS SUITE (GFS/GEM/NAM/12UTC ECMWF) IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ONLY SOME 6 HRS TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH ARRIVAL OF MON MRNG
SYSTEM. RANGES FROM 06UTC IN GEM/NAM TO 18UTC IN PVS ECMWF WITH GFS
THE MID POINT AT 12UTC. WILL USE GFS FOR TIMING SUN NT INTO MON.

OTHERWISE SAT BEGINS W/WK HIGH PRESSURE FM OH VLY TO DELMARVA...AND
CDFNT DROPPING SE FM E GRTLKS. WHILE SOME KIND OF WK WIND SHIFT
LINE IS ALREADY E OF FCA...MAIN CDFNT IS ON YOW-TOL LN AT 12UTC...BUT
BY 18UTC GFS HAS IT JUST WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR...NAM A TAD SLOWER.
MAIN FEATURE SAT WILL BE POWERFUL 500HPA SHORT WV DIVING SE ACROSS
N NY AND NEW ENG...AND RESULTING RAPID CYCLOGENISUS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WELL E OF FCA. HWVR IT WILL LEAVE US IN THE GRADIENT BTWN
BUILDING ONTARIO 1026HPA SFC HIGH AND DEEPENING SFC LOW IN GULF
OF MAINE. RESULT COULD BE A PERIOD OF BRISK TO STRONG WINDS SAT
AFTN AND EARLY AFT FM THE NORTH. MOST OF THE GUID IS RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED AND THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS
AND -SHRA MAINLY N OF MHWK VLY. ITS COLD CORE QUICKLY PASSES
ACROSS THE N TIER SAT...AND HAS ONLY MODEST IMPACT ON TEMP PROFILE
FURTHER S...HIGHS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRI...EXCEPT IN THE FAR
NW FCA WHERE THEY WILL BE 5-10 DEG COOLER...60S IN MOST AREAS SOME
MID AND UPPER 50S IN N ADRDKS.

SAT NT AND SUN WILL BRING SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDING SE FM OTTAWA
VLY. WIND GRAD WILL QUICKLY RELAX AND DECOUPLE. WITH A COOL IDEAL
(FOR APRIL) RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A GEM AS 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS E ACROSS RGN AND SFC
HIGH IS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW RH...LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG SUN
AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS.

CONDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS 500HPA CUT OFF MOVES EAST INTO
THE N GRT PLAINS AND RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AT THE SFC DEEPENING
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE GRTLKS WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING S INTO OH VLY AND A WMFNT SE FM CMH-HAT. SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH INCREASING WIND GRADIENT ACROSS FCA SUN NT.

CLOUDS WILL INCR SUN NT AND RAIN ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. DURING MON
MOST OF THE GUID DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW IN OR NR I95 CORRIDOR
ALONG THE PRIMARY SYSTEMS TRIPLE POINT...ENHANCING THE MOISTURE
FEED INTO THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEMS
ORGANIZATION VARIES AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THEY ALL AGREE ON ITS
FORMING.

MOST OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES PRODUCE AN INCH OR SO QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH OUTLIERS AROUND 2 INCHES AND 0.3 RESPECTIVELY.
MONDAY WILL BE A RAINY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ONE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY COULD POTENTIALLY EXIT TUESDAY BUT WITH
UPPER ENERGY UPSTREAM CUTTING OFF AND WE REMAIN IN WEST TO
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW...MORE CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY COULD SUPPORT
MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS...BUT LESS COVERAGE. SO CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS TUESDAY...DECREASING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN AREAS. SOME COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AS THE UPPER ENERGY EXITS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST UPSTREAM UPPER CUTOFF
ENERGY TRACKS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS...AND
WHETHER SOME AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...COULD GET SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SOME 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AGAIN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...IF THE COLDER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE END UP VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS AT TIMES WITH THE SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL PLACE A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME
HIGH END IFR CIGS AT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE INTERVALS OF LIGHTER WINDS
TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS WITH A DECREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH 100 PERCENT SINCE SOME RAIN IS LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY. IT WILL TURN A BIT
BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

ON SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT
WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE
DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE
SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SNOW SURVEY DATA FROM
COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO SNOW MELT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SND/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SND/HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 170602
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
202 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
CREST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
QUICKLY THROUGH WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH. IN ITS WAKE THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF BRISK WINDS...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY WITH FINE
WEATHER. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS WAS JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER AS WE WILL REFRESH THE POPS/WX GRIDS TO SPEED UP
TIMING A LITTLE BIT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN A BIT ON THE
MILDER SIDE THANKS TO A SOUTHERLY BREEZE...CLOUD COVER AND THE
APPROACH OF SHOWERS. SO WE HAVE ADJUSTED UP THE HOURLY TEMPS A
BIT BY LEFT THE OVERNIGHT LOWS INTACT.

BASED ON UPSTREAM 3-5 HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...NUDGED DOWN THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER...IT IS
TOUGH TO TIME THE SATURATION OF THE LAYER AND HOW IT WILL AFFECT
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

TODAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SATURDAY...A
CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT IT
COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE AREA OR
SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH SUNSHINE.
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY IMPACT
WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING FAIRLY
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A ANTI
CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE
MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY). IT WILL
BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MDLS SUITE (GFS/GEM/NAM/12UTC ECMWF) IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ONLY SOME 6 HRS TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH ARRIVAL OF MON MRNG
SYSTEM. RANGES FROM 06UTC IN GEM/NAM TO 18UTC IN PVS ECMWF WITH GFS
THE MID POINT AT 12UTC. WILL USE GFS FOR TIMING SUN NT INTO MON.

OTHERWISE SAT BEGINS W/WK HIGH PRESSURE FM OH VLY TO DELMARVA...AND
CDFNT DROPPING SE FM E GRTLKS. WHILE SOME KIND OF WK WIND SHIFT
LINE IS ALREADY E OF FCA...MAIN CDFNT IS ON YOW-TOL LN AT 12UTC...BUT
BY 18UTC GFS HAS IT JUST WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR...NAM A TAD SLOWER.
MAIN FEATURE SAT WILL BE POWERFUL 500HPA SHORT WV DIVING SE ACROSS
N NY AND NEW ENG...AND RESULTING RAPID CYCLOGENISUS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WELL E OF FCA. HWVR IT WILL LEAVE US IN THE GRADIENT BTWN
BUILDING ONTARIO 1026HPA SFC HIGH AND DEEPENING SFC LOW IN GULF
OF MAINE. RESULT COULD BE A PERIOD OF BRISK TO STRONG WINDS SAT
AFTN AND EARLY AFT FM THE NORTH. MOST OF THE GUID IS RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED AND THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS
AND -SHRA MAINLY N OF MHWK VLY. ITS COLD CORE QUICKLY PASSES
ACROSS THE N TIER SAT...AND HAS ONLY MODEST IMPACT ON TEMP PROFILE
FURTHER S...HIGHS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRI...EXCEPT IN THE FAR
NW FCA WHERE THEY WILL BE 5-10 DEG COOLER...60S IN MOST AREAS SOME
MID AND UPPER 50S IN N ADRDKS.

SAT NT AND SUN WILL BRING SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDING SE FM OTTAWA
VLY. WIND GRAD WILL QUICKLY RELAX AND DECOUPLE. WITH A COOL IDEAL
(FOR APRIL) RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A GEM AS 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS E ACROSS RGN AND SFC
HIGH IS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW RH...LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG SUN
AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS.

CONDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS 500HPA CUT OFF MOVES EAST INTO
THE N GRT PLAINS AND RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AT THE SFC DEEPENING
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE GRTLKS WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING S INTO OH VLY AND A WMFNT SE FM CMH-HAT. SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH INCREASING WIND GRADIENT ACROSS FCA SUN NT.

CLOUDS WILL INCR SUN NT AND RAIN ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. DURING MON
MOST OF THE GUID DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW IN OR NR I95 CORRIDOR
ALONG THE PRIMARY SYSTEMS TRIPLE POINT...ENHANCING THE MOISTURE
FEED INTO THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEMS
ORGANIZATION VARIES AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THEY ALL AGREE ON ITS
FORMING.

MOST OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES PRODUCE AN INCH OR SO QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH OUTLIERS AROUND 2 INCHES AND 0.3 RESPECTIVELY.
MONDAY WILL BE A RAINY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ONE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY COULD POTENTIALLY EXIT TUESDAY BUT WITH
UPPER ENERGY UPSTREAM CUTTING OFF AND WE REMAIN IN WEST TO
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW...MORE CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY COULD SUPPORT
MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS...BUT LESS COVERAGE. SO CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS TUESDAY...DECREASING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN AREAS. SOME COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AS THE UPPER ENERGY EXITS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST UPSTREAM UPPER CUTOFF
ENERGY TRACKS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS...AND
WHETHER SOME AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...COULD GET SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SOME 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AGAIN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...IF THE COLDER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE END UP VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS AT TIMES WITH THE SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL PLACE A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME
HIGH END IFR CIGS AT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE INTERVALS OF LIGHTER WINDS
TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS WITH A DECREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH 100 PERCENT SINCE SOME RAIN IS LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY. IT WILL TURN A BIT
BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

ON SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT
WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE
DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE
SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SNOW SURVEY DATA FROM
COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO SNOW MELT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SND/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SND/HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 170602
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
202 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
CREST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
QUICKLY THROUGH WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH. IN ITS WAKE THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF BRISK WINDS...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY WITH FINE
WEATHER. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS WAS JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER AS WE WILL REFRESH THE POPS/WX GRIDS TO SPEED UP
TIMING A LITTLE BIT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN A BIT ON THE
MILDER SIDE THANKS TO A SOUTHERLY BREEZE...CLOUD COVER AND THE
APPROACH OF SHOWERS. SO WE HAVE ADJUSTED UP THE HOURLY TEMPS A
BIT BY LEFT THE OVERNIGHT LOWS INTACT.

BASED ON UPSTREAM 3-5 HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...NUDGED DOWN THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER...IT IS
TOUGH TO TIME THE SATURATION OF THE LAYER AND HOW IT WILL AFFECT
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

TODAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SATURDAY...A
CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT IT
COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE AREA OR
SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH SUNSHINE.
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY IMPACT
WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING FAIRLY
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A ANTI
CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE
MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY). IT WILL
BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MDLS SUITE (GFS/GEM/NAM/12UTC ECMWF) IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ONLY SOME 6 HRS TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH ARRIVAL OF MON MRNG
SYSTEM. RANGES FROM 06UTC IN GEM/NAM TO 18UTC IN PVS ECMWF WITH GFS
THE MID POINT AT 12UTC. WILL USE GFS FOR TIMING SUN NT INTO MON.

OTHERWISE SAT BEGINS W/WK HIGH PRESSURE FM OH VLY TO DELMARVA...AND
CDFNT DROPPING SE FM E GRTLKS. WHILE SOME KIND OF WK WIND SHIFT
LINE IS ALREADY E OF FCA...MAIN CDFNT IS ON YOW-TOL LN AT 12UTC...BUT
BY 18UTC GFS HAS IT JUST WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR...NAM A TAD SLOWER.
MAIN FEATURE SAT WILL BE POWERFUL 500HPA SHORT WV DIVING SE ACROSS
N NY AND NEW ENG...AND RESULTING RAPID CYCLOGENISUS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WELL E OF FCA. HWVR IT WILL LEAVE US IN THE GRADIENT BTWN
BUILDING ONTARIO 1026HPA SFC HIGH AND DEEPENING SFC LOW IN GULF
OF MAINE. RESULT COULD BE A PERIOD OF BRISK TO STRONG WINDS SAT
AFTN AND EARLY AFT FM THE NORTH. MOST OF THE GUID IS RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED AND THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS
AND -SHRA MAINLY N OF MHWK VLY. ITS COLD CORE QUICKLY PASSES
ACROSS THE N TIER SAT...AND HAS ONLY MODEST IMPACT ON TEMP PROFILE
FURTHER S...HIGHS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRI...EXCEPT IN THE FAR
NW FCA WHERE THEY WILL BE 5-10 DEG COOLER...60S IN MOST AREAS SOME
MID AND UPPER 50S IN N ADRDKS.

SAT NT AND SUN WILL BRING SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDING SE FM OTTAWA
VLY. WIND GRAD WILL QUICKLY RELAX AND DECOUPLE. WITH A COOL IDEAL
(FOR APRIL) RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A GEM AS 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS E ACROSS RGN AND SFC
HIGH IS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW RH...LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG SUN
AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS.

CONDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS 500HPA CUT OFF MOVES EAST INTO
THE N GRT PLAINS AND RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AT THE SFC DEEPENING
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE GRTLKS WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING S INTO OH VLY AND A WMFNT SE FM CMH-HAT. SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH INCREASING WIND GRADIENT ACROSS FCA SUN NT.

CLOUDS WILL INCR SUN NT AND RAIN ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. DURING MON
MOST OF THE GUID DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW IN OR NR I95 CORRIDOR
ALONG THE PRIMARY SYSTEMS TRIPLE POINT...ENHANCING THE MOISTURE
FEED INTO THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEMS
ORGANIZATION VARIES AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THEY ALL AGREE ON ITS
FORMING.

MOST OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES PRODUCE AN INCH OR SO QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH OUTLIERS AROUND 2 INCHES AND 0.3 RESPECTIVELY.
MONDAY WILL BE A RAINY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ONE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY COULD POTENTIALLY EXIT TUESDAY BUT WITH
UPPER ENERGY UPSTREAM CUTTING OFF AND WE REMAIN IN WEST TO
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW...MORE CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY COULD SUPPORT
MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS...BUT LESS COVERAGE. SO CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS TUESDAY...DECREASING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN AREAS. SOME COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AS THE UPPER ENERGY EXITS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST UPSTREAM UPPER CUTOFF
ENERGY TRACKS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS...AND
WHETHER SOME AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...COULD GET SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SOME 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AGAIN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...IF THE COLDER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE END UP VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS AT TIMES WITH THE SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL PLACE A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME
HIGH END IFR CIGS AT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE INTERVALS OF LIGHTER WINDS
TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS WITH A DECREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH 100 PERCENT SINCE SOME RAIN IS LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY. IT WILL TURN A BIT
BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

ON SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT
WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE
DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE
SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SNOW SURVEY DATA FROM
COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO SNOW MELT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SND/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SND/HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 170602
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
202 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
CREST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
QUICKLY THROUGH WITH SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH. IN ITS WAKE THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF BRISK WINDS...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY WITH FINE
WEATHER. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
WITH A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS WAS JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER AS WE WILL REFRESH THE POPS/WX GRIDS TO SPEED UP
TIMING A LITTLE BIT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN A BIT ON THE
MILDER SIDE THANKS TO A SOUTHERLY BREEZE...CLOUD COVER AND THE
APPROACH OF SHOWERS. SO WE HAVE ADJUSTED UP THE HOURLY TEMPS A
BIT BY LEFT THE OVERNIGHT LOWS INTACT.

BASED ON UPSTREAM 3-5 HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...NUDGED DOWN THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER...IT IS
TOUGH TO TIME THE SATURATION OF THE LAYER AND HOW IT WILL AFFECT
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

TODAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SATURDAY...A
CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT IT
COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE AREA OR
SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH SUNSHINE.
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY IMPACT
WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING FAIRLY
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A ANTI
CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE
MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY). IT WILL
BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MDLS SUITE (GFS/GEM/NAM/12UTC ECMWF) IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ONLY SOME 6 HRS TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH ARRIVAL OF MON MRNG
SYSTEM. RANGES FROM 06UTC IN GEM/NAM TO 18UTC IN PVS ECMWF WITH GFS
THE MID POINT AT 12UTC. WILL USE GFS FOR TIMING SUN NT INTO MON.

OTHERWISE SAT BEGINS W/WK HIGH PRESSURE FM OH VLY TO DELMARVA...AND
CDFNT DROPPING SE FM E GRTLKS. WHILE SOME KIND OF WK WIND SHIFT
LINE IS ALREADY E OF FCA...MAIN CDFNT IS ON YOW-TOL LN AT 12UTC...BUT
BY 18UTC GFS HAS IT JUST WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR...NAM A TAD SLOWER.
MAIN FEATURE SAT WILL BE POWERFUL 500HPA SHORT WV DIVING SE ACROSS
N NY AND NEW ENG...AND RESULTING RAPID CYCLOGENISUS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WELL E OF FCA. HWVR IT WILL LEAVE US IN THE GRADIENT BTWN
BUILDING ONTARIO 1026HPA SFC HIGH AND DEEPENING SFC LOW IN GULF
OF MAINE. RESULT COULD BE A PERIOD OF BRISK TO STRONG WINDS SAT
AFTN AND EARLY AFT FM THE NORTH. MOST OF THE GUID IS RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED AND THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS
AND -SHRA MAINLY N OF MHWK VLY. ITS COLD CORE QUICKLY PASSES
ACROSS THE N TIER SAT...AND HAS ONLY MODEST IMPACT ON TEMP PROFILE
FURTHER S...HIGHS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRI...EXCEPT IN THE FAR
NW FCA WHERE THEY WILL BE 5-10 DEG COOLER...60S IN MOST AREAS SOME
MID AND UPPER 50S IN N ADRDKS.

SAT NT AND SUN WILL BRING SPRAWLING SFC HIGH BUILDING SE FM OTTAWA
VLY. WIND GRAD WILL QUICKLY RELAX AND DECOUPLE. WITH A COOL IDEAL
(FOR APRIL) RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

SUNDAY WILL BE A GEM AS 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS E ACROSS RGN AND SFC
HIGH IS OVER THE REGION WITH LOW RH...LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG SUN
AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS.

CONDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS 500HPA CUT OFF MOVES EAST INTO
THE N GRT PLAINS AND RIDGE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AT THE SFC DEEPENING
COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL MV INTO THE GRTLKS WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING S INTO OH VLY AND A WMFNT SE FM CMH-HAT. SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH INCREASING WIND GRADIENT ACROSS FCA SUN NT.

CLOUDS WILL INCR SUN NT AND RAIN ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. DURING MON
MOST OF THE GUID DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW IN OR NR I95 CORRIDOR
ALONG THE PRIMARY SYSTEMS TRIPLE POINT...ENHANCING THE MOISTURE
FEED INTO THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEMS
ORGANIZATION VARIES AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THEY ALL AGREE ON ITS
FORMING.

MOST OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES PRODUCE AN INCH OR SO QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH OUTLIERS AROUND 2 INCHES AND 0.3 RESPECTIVELY.
MONDAY WILL BE A RAINY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ONE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY COULD POTENTIALLY EXIT TUESDAY BUT WITH
UPPER ENERGY UPSTREAM CUTTING OFF AND WE REMAIN IN WEST TO
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW...MORE CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY COULD SUPPORT
MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS...BUT LESS COVERAGE. SO CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS TUESDAY...DECREASING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN AREAS. SOME COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AS THE UPPER ENERGY EXITS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST UPSTREAM UPPER CUTOFF
ENERGY TRACKS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS...AND
WHETHER SOME AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...COULD GET SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SOME 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AGAIN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...IF THE COLDER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE END UP VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS AT TIMES WITH THE SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL PLACE A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME
HIGH END IFR CIGS AT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE INTERVALS OF LIGHTER WINDS
TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS WITH A DECREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH 100 PERCENT SINCE SOME RAIN IS LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY. IT WILL TURN A BIT
BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

ON SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT
WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE
DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE
SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SNOW SURVEY DATA FROM
COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO SNOW MELT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SND/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SND/HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KBTV 170533
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
133 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BRINGING OCCASIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BRIEF
DRYING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA AND BRINGS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1244 AM EDT FRIDAY...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN NEW YORK AS OF MIDNIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ACROSS VERMONT OVERNIGHT. THE
SHOWERS ARE THE RESULT OF A WEAK SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH ABOUT 15Z FRIDAY. WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY SEE A COMPONENT OF DOWNSLOPE DRYING
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...THEN PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AS WINDS GO WESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE
GREENS. OVERALL QPF WILL BE LIGHT...RANGING FROM SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD...ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON TO PAST NIGHTS...WITH LOWS IN THE
40S...TO AROUND 50 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. MADE A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/TEMPS FOR NEXT FEW HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THUS DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING...BUT A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT. AGAIN...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
SHOWERS THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HAVE USED THE
HIGHER END VALUES OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...AS FEEL SUNDAY WILL BE A FULL SUN DAY AND
MODELS THIS TIME OF YEAR TEND TO BE A BIT TOO COOL WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES. THUS...HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUPER-BLEND GUIDANCE.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS TRYING TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL OPT TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THAT WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN
BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM COMING UP
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

EXPECTING MAINLY SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CANADA WHICH
WILL BRING UPPER SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING COLDER
AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SO
EXPECTING SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CIGS UNDER BKN-OVC MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, BUT PER UPSTREAM OBS VSBY WILL REMAIN VFR.
AFTER PRECIP EXITS IS WHEN CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR FOR A SHORT
PERIOD, MAINLY AFTER 08Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND 11Z ACROSS
VERMONT. CIGS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS AND BECOME FEW-
SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS, TRENDING WEST TO SOUTHWEST AFTER 12Z. THERE
WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS WHERE GUSTS WILL PEAK UP TO 20KTS, LOCALLY
AT KMSS/KBTV FROM 06-08Z, AND AGAIN FROM 18-21Z THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 170533
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
133 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BRINGING OCCASIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BRIEF
DRYING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA AND BRINGS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1244 AM EDT FRIDAY...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN NEW YORK AS OF MIDNIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ACROSS VERMONT OVERNIGHT. THE
SHOWERS ARE THE RESULT OF A WEAK SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH ABOUT 15Z FRIDAY. WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY SEE A COMPONENT OF DOWNSLOPE DRYING
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...THEN PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AS WINDS GO WESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE
GREENS. OVERALL QPF WILL BE LIGHT...RANGING FROM SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD...ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON TO PAST NIGHTS...WITH LOWS IN THE
40S...TO AROUND 50 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. MADE A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/TEMPS FOR NEXT FEW HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THUS DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING...BUT A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT. AGAIN...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
SHOWERS THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HAVE USED THE
HIGHER END VALUES OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...AS FEEL SUNDAY WILL BE A FULL SUN DAY AND
MODELS THIS TIME OF YEAR TEND TO BE A BIT TOO COOL WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES. THUS...HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUPER-BLEND GUIDANCE.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS TRYING TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL OPT TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THAT WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN
BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM COMING UP
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

EXPECTING MAINLY SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CANADA WHICH
WILL BRING UPPER SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING COLDER
AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SO
EXPECTING SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CIGS UNDER BKN-OVC MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, BUT PER UPSTREAM OBS VSBY WILL REMAIN VFR.
AFTER PRECIP EXITS IS WHEN CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR FOR A SHORT
PERIOD, MAINLY AFTER 08Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND 11Z ACROSS
VERMONT. CIGS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS AND BECOME FEW-
SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS, TRENDING WEST TO SOUTHWEST AFTER 12Z. THERE
WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS WHERE GUSTS WILL PEAK UP TO 20KTS, LOCALLY
AT KMSS/KBTV FROM 06-08Z, AND AGAIN FROM 18-21Z THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 170533
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
133 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BRINGING OCCASIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BRIEF
DRYING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA AND BRINGS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1244 AM EDT FRIDAY...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN NEW YORK AS OF MIDNIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ACROSS VERMONT OVERNIGHT. THE
SHOWERS ARE THE RESULT OF A WEAK SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH ABOUT 15Z FRIDAY. WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY SEE A COMPONENT OF DOWNSLOPE DRYING
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...THEN PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AS WINDS GO WESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE
GREENS. OVERALL QPF WILL BE LIGHT...RANGING FROM SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD...ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON TO PAST NIGHTS...WITH LOWS IN THE
40S...TO AROUND 50 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. MADE A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/TEMPS FOR NEXT FEW HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THUS DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING...BUT A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT. AGAIN...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
SHOWERS THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HAVE USED THE
HIGHER END VALUES OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...AS FEEL SUNDAY WILL BE A FULL SUN DAY AND
MODELS THIS TIME OF YEAR TEND TO BE A BIT TOO COOL WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES. THUS...HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUPER-BLEND GUIDANCE.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS TRYING TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL OPT TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THAT WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN
BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM COMING UP
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

EXPECTING MAINLY SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CANADA WHICH
WILL BRING UPPER SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING COLDER
AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SO
EXPECTING SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CIGS UNDER BKN-OVC MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, BUT PER UPSTREAM OBS VSBY WILL REMAIN VFR.
AFTER PRECIP EXITS IS WHEN CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR FOR A SHORT
PERIOD, MAINLY AFTER 08Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND 11Z ACROSS
VERMONT. CIGS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS AND BECOME FEW-
SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS, TRENDING WEST TO SOUTHWEST AFTER 12Z. THERE
WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS WHERE GUSTS WILL PEAK UP TO 20KTS, LOCALLY
AT KMSS/KBTV FROM 06-08Z, AND AGAIN FROM 18-21Z THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 170533
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
133 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BRINGING OCCASIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BRIEF
DRYING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA AND BRINGS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1244 AM EDT FRIDAY...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN NEW YORK AS OF MIDNIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ACROSS VERMONT OVERNIGHT. THE
SHOWERS ARE THE RESULT OF A WEAK SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH ABOUT 15Z FRIDAY. WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY SEE A COMPONENT OF DOWNSLOPE DRYING
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...THEN PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AS WINDS GO WESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE
GREENS. OVERALL QPF WILL BE LIGHT...RANGING FROM SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD...ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON TO PAST NIGHTS...WITH LOWS IN THE
40S...TO AROUND 50 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. MADE A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/TEMPS FOR NEXT FEW HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THUS DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING...BUT A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT. AGAIN...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
SHOWERS THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HAVE USED THE
HIGHER END VALUES OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...AS FEEL SUNDAY WILL BE A FULL SUN DAY AND
MODELS THIS TIME OF YEAR TEND TO BE A BIT TOO COOL WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES. THUS...HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUPER-BLEND GUIDANCE.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS TRYING TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL OPT TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THAT WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN
BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM COMING UP
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

EXPECTING MAINLY SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CANADA WHICH
WILL BRING UPPER SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING COLDER
AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SO
EXPECTING SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CIGS UNDER BKN-OVC MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, BUT PER UPSTREAM OBS VSBY WILL REMAIN VFR.
AFTER PRECIP EXITS IS WHEN CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR FOR A SHORT
PERIOD, MAINLY AFTER 08Z ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND 11Z ACROSS
VERMONT. CIGS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS AND BECOME FEW-
SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS, TRENDING WEST TO SOUTHWEST AFTER 12Z. THERE
WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS WHERE GUSTS WILL PEAK UP TO 20KTS, LOCALLY
AT KMSS/KBTV FROM 06-08Z, AND AGAIN FROM 18-21Z THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.

00Z SUNDAY - 06Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALSO
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS AND LLWS
DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 170518
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
118 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. ON FRIDAY...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
BY AFTERNOON AND SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER IN THE DAY. THE
WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH COOL MORNINGS FOLLOWED BY MILD AFTERNOONS.
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS WAS JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER AS WE WILL REFRESH THE POPS/WX GRIDS TO SPEED UP
TIMING A LITTLE BIT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN A BIT ON THE
MILDER SIDE THANKS TO A SOUTHERLY BREEZE...CLOUD COVER AND THE
APPROACH OF SHOWERS. SO WE HAVE ADJUSTED UP THE HOURLY TEMPS A
BIT BY LEFT THE OVERNIGHT LOWS INTACT.

BASED ON UPSTREAM 3-5 HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...NUDGED DOWN THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER...IT IS
TOUGH TO TIME THE SATURATION OF THE LAYER AND HOW IT WILL AFFECT
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DONE BY NOON AND ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DONE BY 2 PM. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
THIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE
WEST...AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA OR SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH
SUNSHINE. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY
IMPACT WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING
FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A
ANTI CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS
(WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY).
IT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. IF WINDS DIMINISH...A WIDESPREAD FROST
OR FREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HE WEEKEND ENDS DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.  THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES IN FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
JET ENERGY.  SO...RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND COVERAGE INCREASES TO LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S...SOME MID
TO UPPER 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ONE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY COULD POTENTIALLY EXIT TUESDAY BUT WITH
UPPER ENERGY UPSTREAM CUTTING OFF AND WE REMAIN IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW...MORE CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY COULD SUPPORT MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS...BUT LESS COVERAGE. SO CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SHOWERS TUESDAY...DECREASING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN
AREAS. SOME COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE UPPER ENERGY EXITS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST UPSTREAM UPPER CUTOFF
ENERGY TRACKS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS...AND
WHETHER SOME AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...COULD GET SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SOME 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AGAIN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...IF THE COLDER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE END UP VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS AT TIMES WITH THE SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL PLACE A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME
HIGH END IFR CIGS AT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE INTERVALS OF LIGHTER WINDS
TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS WITH A DECREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH 100 PERCENT SINCE SOME RAIN IS LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY. IT WILL TURN A BIT
BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

ON SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT
WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE
DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE
SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SNOW SURVEY DATA FROM
COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO SNOW MELT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SND/HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 170518
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
118 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. ON FRIDAY...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
BY AFTERNOON AND SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER IN THE DAY. THE
WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH COOL MORNINGS FOLLOWED BY MILD AFTERNOONS.
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS WAS JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER AS WE WILL REFRESH THE POPS/WX GRIDS TO SPEED UP
TIMING A LITTLE BIT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN A BIT ON THE
MILDER SIDE THANKS TO A SOUTHERLY BREEZE...CLOUD COVER AND THE
APPROACH OF SHOWERS. SO WE HAVE ADJUSTED UP THE HOURLY TEMPS A
BIT BY LEFT THE OVERNIGHT LOWS INTACT.

BASED ON UPSTREAM 3-5 HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...NUDGED DOWN THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER...IT IS
TOUGH TO TIME THE SATURATION OF THE LAYER AND HOW IT WILL AFFECT
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DONE BY NOON AND ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DONE BY 2 PM. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
THIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE
WEST...AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA OR SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH
SUNSHINE. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY
IMPACT WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING
FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A
ANTI CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS
(WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY).
IT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. IF WINDS DIMINISH...A WIDESPREAD FROST
OR FREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HE WEEKEND ENDS DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.  THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES IN FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
JET ENERGY.  SO...RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND COVERAGE INCREASES TO LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S...SOME MID
TO UPPER 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ONE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY COULD POTENTIALLY EXIT TUESDAY BUT WITH
UPPER ENERGY UPSTREAM CUTTING OFF AND WE REMAIN IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW...MORE CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY COULD SUPPORT MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS...BUT LESS COVERAGE. SO CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SHOWERS TUESDAY...DECREASING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN
AREAS. SOME COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE UPPER ENERGY EXITS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST UPSTREAM UPPER CUTOFF
ENERGY TRACKS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS...AND
WHETHER SOME AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...COULD GET SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SOME 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AGAIN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...IF THE COLDER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE END UP VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS AT TIMES WITH THE SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL PLACE A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME
HIGH END IFR CIGS AT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE INTERVALS OF LIGHTER WINDS
TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS WITH A DECREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH 100 PERCENT SINCE SOME RAIN IS LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY. IT WILL TURN A BIT
BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

ON SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT
WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE
DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE
SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SNOW SURVEY DATA FROM
COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO SNOW MELT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SND/HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 170518
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
118 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. ON FRIDAY...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
BY AFTERNOON AND SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER IN THE DAY. THE
WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH COOL MORNINGS FOLLOWED BY MILD AFTERNOONS.
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS WAS JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER AS WE WILL REFRESH THE POPS/WX GRIDS TO SPEED UP
TIMING A LITTLE BIT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN A BIT ON THE
MILDER SIDE THANKS TO A SOUTHERLY BREEZE...CLOUD COVER AND THE
APPROACH OF SHOWERS. SO WE HAVE ADJUSTED UP THE HOURLY TEMPS A
BIT BY LEFT THE OVERNIGHT LOWS INTACT.

BASED ON UPSTREAM 3-5 HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...NUDGED DOWN THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER...IT IS
TOUGH TO TIME THE SATURATION OF THE LAYER AND HOW IT WILL AFFECT
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DONE BY NOON AND ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DONE BY 2 PM. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
THIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE
WEST...AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA OR SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH
SUNSHINE. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY
IMPACT WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING
FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A
ANTI CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS
(WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY).
IT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. IF WINDS DIMINISH...A WIDESPREAD FROST
OR FREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HE WEEKEND ENDS DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.  THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES IN FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
JET ENERGY.  SO...RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND COVERAGE INCREASES TO LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S...SOME MID
TO UPPER 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ONE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY COULD POTENTIALLY EXIT TUESDAY BUT WITH
UPPER ENERGY UPSTREAM CUTTING OFF AND WE REMAIN IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW...MORE CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY COULD SUPPORT MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS...BUT LESS COVERAGE. SO CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SHOWERS TUESDAY...DECREASING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN
AREAS. SOME COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE UPPER ENERGY EXITS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST UPSTREAM UPPER CUTOFF
ENERGY TRACKS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS...AND
WHETHER SOME AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...COULD GET SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SOME 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AGAIN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...IF THE COLDER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE END UP VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS AT TIMES WITH THE SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL PLACE A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME
HIGH END IFR CIGS AT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE INTERVALS OF LIGHTER WINDS
TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS WITH A DECREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH 100 PERCENT SINCE SOME RAIN IS LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY. IT WILL TURN A BIT
BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

ON SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT
WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE
DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE
SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SNOW SURVEY DATA FROM
COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO SNOW MELT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SND/HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 170518
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
118 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. ON FRIDAY...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
BY AFTERNOON AND SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER IN THE DAY. THE
WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH COOL MORNINGS FOLLOWED BY MILD AFTERNOONS.
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS WAS JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER AS WE WILL REFRESH THE POPS/WX GRIDS TO SPEED UP
TIMING A LITTLE BIT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN A BIT ON THE
MILDER SIDE THANKS TO A SOUTHERLY BREEZE...CLOUD COVER AND THE
APPROACH OF SHOWERS. SO WE HAVE ADJUSTED UP THE HOURLY TEMPS A
BIT BY LEFT THE OVERNIGHT LOWS INTACT.

BASED ON UPSTREAM 3-5 HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...NUDGED DOWN THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER...IT IS
TOUGH TO TIME THE SATURATION OF THE LAYER AND HOW IT WILL AFFECT
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DONE BY NOON AND ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DONE BY 2 PM. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
THIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE
WEST...AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA OR SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH
SUNSHINE. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY
IMPACT WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING
FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A
ANTI CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS
(WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY).
IT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. IF WINDS DIMINISH...A WIDESPREAD FROST
OR FREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HE WEEKEND ENDS DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.  THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES IN FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
JET ENERGY.  SO...RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND COVERAGE INCREASES TO LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S...SOME MID
TO UPPER 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ONE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY COULD POTENTIALLY EXIT TUESDAY BUT WITH
UPPER ENERGY UPSTREAM CUTTING OFF AND WE REMAIN IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW...MORE CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY COULD SUPPORT MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS...BUT LESS COVERAGE. SO CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SHOWERS TUESDAY...DECREASING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN
AREAS. SOME COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE UPPER ENERGY EXITS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST UPSTREAM UPPER CUTOFF
ENERGY TRACKS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS...AND
WHETHER SOME AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...COULD GET SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SOME 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AGAIN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...IF THE COLDER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE END UP VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS AT TIMES WITH THE SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL PLACE A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME
HIGH END IFR CIGS AT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE INTERVALS OF LIGHTER WINDS
TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS WITH A DECREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH 100 PERCENT SINCE SOME RAIN IS LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY. IT WILL TURN A BIT
BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

ON SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT
WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE
DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE
SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SNOW SURVEY DATA FROM
COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO SNOW MELT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SND/HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 170518
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
118 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. ON FRIDAY...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
BY AFTERNOON AND SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER IN THE DAY. THE
WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH COOL MORNINGS FOLLOWED BY MILD AFTERNOONS.
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS WAS JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER AS WE WILL REFRESH THE POPS/WX GRIDS TO SPEED UP
TIMING A LITTLE BIT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN A BIT ON THE
MILDER SIDE THANKS TO A SOUTHERLY BREEZE...CLOUD COVER AND THE
APPROACH OF SHOWERS. SO WE HAVE ADJUSTED UP THE HOURLY TEMPS A
BIT BY LEFT THE OVERNIGHT LOWS INTACT.

BASED ON UPSTREAM 3-5 HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...NUDGED DOWN THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER...IT IS
TOUGH TO TIME THE SATURATION OF THE LAYER AND HOW IT WILL AFFECT
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DONE BY NOON AND ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DONE BY 2 PM. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
THIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE
WEST...AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA OR SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH
SUNSHINE. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY
IMPACT WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING
FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A
ANTI CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS
(WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY).
IT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. IF WINDS DIMINISH...A WIDESPREAD FROST
OR FREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HE WEEKEND ENDS DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.  THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES IN FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
JET ENERGY.  SO...RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND COVERAGE INCREASES TO LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S...SOME MID
TO UPPER 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ONE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY COULD POTENTIALLY EXIT TUESDAY BUT WITH
UPPER ENERGY UPSTREAM CUTTING OFF AND WE REMAIN IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW...MORE CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY COULD SUPPORT MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS...BUT LESS COVERAGE. SO CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SHOWERS TUESDAY...DECREASING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN
AREAS. SOME COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE UPPER ENERGY EXITS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST UPSTREAM UPPER CUTOFF
ENERGY TRACKS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS...AND
WHETHER SOME AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...COULD GET SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SOME 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AGAIN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...IF THE COLDER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE END UP VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS AT TIMES WITH THE SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL PLACE A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME
HIGH END IFR CIGS AT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE INTERVALS OF LIGHTER WINDS
TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS WITH A DECREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH 100 PERCENT SINCE SOME RAIN IS LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY. IT WILL TURN A BIT
BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

ON SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT
WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE
DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE
SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SNOW SURVEY DATA FROM
COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO SNOW MELT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SND/HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 170518
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
118 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. ON FRIDAY...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
BY AFTERNOON AND SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER IN THE DAY. THE
WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH COOL MORNINGS FOLLOWED BY MILD AFTERNOONS.
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS WAS JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER AS WE WILL REFRESH THE POPS/WX GRIDS TO SPEED UP
TIMING A LITTLE BIT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN A BIT ON THE
MILDER SIDE THANKS TO A SOUTHERLY BREEZE...CLOUD COVER AND THE
APPROACH OF SHOWERS. SO WE HAVE ADJUSTED UP THE HOURLY TEMPS A
BIT BY LEFT THE OVERNIGHT LOWS INTACT.

BASED ON UPSTREAM 3-5 HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...NUDGED DOWN THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 12Z. HOWEVER...IT IS
TOUGH TO TIME THE SATURATION OF THE LAYER AND HOW IT WILL AFFECT
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DONE BY NOON AND ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DONE BY 2 PM. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
THIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE
WEST...AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA OR SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH
SUNSHINE. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY
IMPACT WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING
FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A
ANTI CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS
(WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY).
IT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. IF WINDS DIMINISH...A WIDESPREAD FROST
OR FREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HE WEEKEND ENDS DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.  THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES IN FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
JET ENERGY.  SO...RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND COVERAGE INCREASES TO LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S...SOME MID
TO UPPER 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ONE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY COULD POTENTIALLY EXIT TUESDAY BUT WITH
UPPER ENERGY UPSTREAM CUTTING OFF AND WE REMAIN IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW...MORE CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY COULD SUPPORT MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS...BUT LESS COVERAGE. SO CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SHOWERS TUESDAY...DECREASING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN
AREAS. SOME COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE UPPER ENERGY EXITS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST UPSTREAM UPPER CUTOFF
ENERGY TRACKS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS...AND
WHETHER SOME AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...COULD GET SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SOME 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AGAIN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...IF THE COLDER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE END UP VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS AT TIMES WITH THE SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL PLACE A TEMPO GROUP FOR SOME
HIGH END IFR CIGS AT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE INTERVALS OF LIGHTER WINDS
TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS WITH A DECREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY:HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH 100 PERCENT SINCE SOME RAIN IS LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY. IT WILL TURN A BIT
BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

ON SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT
WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE
DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE
SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SNOW SURVEY DATA FROM
COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO SNOW MELT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...BGM/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SND/HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KBTV 170454
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1254 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BRINGING OCCASIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BRIEF
DRYING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA AND BRINGS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1244 AM EDT FRIDAY...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN NEW YORK AS OF MIDNIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ACROSS VERMONT OVERNIGHT. THE
SHOWERS ARE THE RESULT OF A WEAK SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH ABOUT 15Z FRIDAY. WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY SEE A COMPONENT OF DOWNSLOPE DRYING
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...THEN PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AS WINDS GO WESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE
GREENS. OVERALL QPF WILL BE LIGHT...RANGING FROM SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD...ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON TO PAST NIGHTS...WITH LOWS IN THE
40S...TO AROUND 50 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. MADE A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/TEMPS FOR NEXT FEW HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THUS DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING...BUT A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT. AGAIN...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
SHOWERS THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HAVE USED THE
HIGHER END VALUES OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...AS FEEL SUNDAY WILL BE A FULL SUN DAY AND
MODELS THIS TIME OF YEAR TEND TO BE A BIT TOO COOL WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES. THUS...HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUPER-BLEND GUIDANCE.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS TRYING TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL OPT TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THAT WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN
BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM COMING UP
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

EXPECTING MAINLY SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CANADA WHICH
WILL BRING UPPER SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING COLDER
AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SO
EXPECTING SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...BKN/OVC MID/HIGH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
00-04Z WITH PERIODS OF -RA/-SHRAS AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS IN THE
04-12Z TIME FRAME. CIGS LOWER TO MVFR/VFR FROM 015-040 AGL DURING
THIS PERIOD. AFTER 12Z PCPN EXITS EAST WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR
ALL TERMINALS AND BECOMING SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5-12 KTS OVERNIGHT (SOUTEASTERLY AT KRUT),
TRENDING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AND MODESTLY GUSTY INTO THE 15-20
KT RANGE AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY-00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE AREA PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND AREAS
OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...JMG/WGH



000
FXUS61 KBTV 170454
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1254 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BRINGING OCCASIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BRIEF
DRYING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA AND BRINGS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1244 AM EDT FRIDAY...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN NEW YORK AS OF MIDNIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ACROSS VERMONT OVERNIGHT. THE
SHOWERS ARE THE RESULT OF A WEAK SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH ABOUT 15Z FRIDAY. WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY SEE A COMPONENT OF DOWNSLOPE DRYING
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...THEN PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AS WINDS GO WESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE
GREENS. OVERALL QPF WILL BE LIGHT...RANGING FROM SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD...ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON TO PAST NIGHTS...WITH LOWS IN THE
40S...TO AROUND 50 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. MADE A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/TEMPS FOR NEXT FEW HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THUS DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING...BUT A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT. AGAIN...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
SHOWERS THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HAVE USED THE
HIGHER END VALUES OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...AS FEEL SUNDAY WILL BE A FULL SUN DAY AND
MODELS THIS TIME OF YEAR TEND TO BE A BIT TOO COOL WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES. THUS...HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUPER-BLEND GUIDANCE.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS TRYING TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL OPT TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THAT WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN
BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM COMING UP
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

EXPECTING MAINLY SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CANADA WHICH
WILL BRING UPPER SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING COLDER
AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SO
EXPECTING SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...BKN/OVC MID/HIGH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
00-04Z WITH PERIODS OF -RA/-SHRAS AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS IN THE
04-12Z TIME FRAME. CIGS LOWER TO MVFR/VFR FROM 015-040 AGL DURING
THIS PERIOD. AFTER 12Z PCPN EXITS EAST WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR
ALL TERMINALS AND BECOMING SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5-12 KTS OVERNIGHT (SOUTEASTERLY AT KRUT),
TRENDING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AND MODESTLY GUSTY INTO THE 15-20
KT RANGE AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY-00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE AREA PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND AREAS
OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...JMG/WGH




000
FXUS61 KALY 170208
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1008 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. ON FRIDAY...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
BY AFTERNOON AND SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER IN THE DAY. THE
WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH COOL MORNINGS FOLLOWED BY MILD AFTERNOONS.
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL NY...BUT JUST SPRINKLES AT
BEST. AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW STILL QUITE A BIT OF A DRY LAYER
ACROSS THE REGION. TOUGH TO TIME WHEN THE DRY LAYER WILL BE
SATURATED ENOUGH TO ALLOW MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR
AREA...AS SPRINKLES COULD DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NY AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

WITH THE DRY LAYER OVER THE REGION...IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT FOR THE MEASURABLE RAIN TO REACH US AND THE CURRENT
FORECAST SEEMS TO BE GOOD BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS. NUDGED DOWN THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
06Z...BUT DID NOT TOUCH THE FORECASTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS BEYOND 06Z
SINCE AGAIN...IT IS TOUGH TO TIME THE SATURATION OF THE LAYER AND
HOW IT WILL AFFECT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITAION THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DONE BY NOON AND ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DONE BY 2 PM. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
THIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE
WEST...AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA OR SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH
SUNSHINE. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY
IMPACT WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING
FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A
ANTI CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS
(WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY).
IT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. IF WINDS DIMINISH...A WIDESPREAD FROST
OR FREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HE WEEKEND ENDS DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.  THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES IN FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
JET ENERGY.  SO...RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND COVERAGE INCREASES TO LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S...SOME MID
TO UPPER 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ONE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY COULD POTENTIALLY EXIT TUESDAY BUT WITH
UPPER ENERGY UPSTREAM CUTTING OFF AND WE REMAIN IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW...MORE CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY COULD SUPPORT MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS...BUT LESS COVERAGE. SO CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SHOWERS TUESDAY...DECREASING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN
AREAS. SOME COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE UPPER ENERGY EXITS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST UPSTREAM UPPER CUTOFF
ENERGY TRACKS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS...AND
WHETHER SOME AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...COULD GET SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SOME 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AGAIN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...IF THE COLDER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE END UP VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE LATER
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BETWEEN
06Z AND 09Z EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR. AFTER 16Z VSBYS WILL
RETURN TO MAINLY VFR...WITH CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MVFR RANGE
UNTIL AROUND 19Z...WHEN CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO ABIVE 3000 FEET.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE
INTERVALS OF LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH 100 PERCENT SINCE SOME RAIN IS LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY. IT WILL TURN A BIT
BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

ON SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT
WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE
DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE
SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SNOW SURVEY DATA FROM
COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO SNOW MELT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SND/HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 170208
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1008 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. ON FRIDAY...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
BY AFTERNOON AND SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER IN THE DAY. THE
WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH COOL MORNINGS FOLLOWED BY MILD AFTERNOONS.
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL NY...BUT JUST SPRINKLES AT
BEST. AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW STILL QUITE A BIT OF A DRY LAYER
ACROSS THE REGION. TOUGH TO TIME WHEN THE DRY LAYER WILL BE
SATURATED ENOUGH TO ALLOW MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR
AREA...AS SPRINKLES COULD DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NY AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

WITH THE DRY LAYER OVER THE REGION...IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT FOR THE MEASURABLE RAIN TO REACH US AND THE CURRENT
FORECAST SEEMS TO BE GOOD BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS. NUDGED DOWN THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
06Z...BUT DID NOT TOUCH THE FORECASTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS BEYOND 06Z
SINCE AGAIN...IT IS TOUGH TO TIME THE SATURATION OF THE LAYER AND
HOW IT WILL AFFECT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITAION THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DONE BY NOON AND ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DONE BY 2 PM. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
THIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE
WEST...AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA OR SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH
SUNSHINE. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY
IMPACT WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING
FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A
ANTI CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS
(WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY).
IT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. IF WINDS DIMINISH...A WIDESPREAD FROST
OR FREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HE WEEKEND ENDS DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.  THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES IN FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
JET ENERGY.  SO...RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND COVERAGE INCREASES TO LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S...SOME MID
TO UPPER 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ONE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY COULD POTENTIALLY EXIT TUESDAY BUT WITH
UPPER ENERGY UPSTREAM CUTTING OFF AND WE REMAIN IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW...MORE CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY COULD SUPPORT MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS...BUT LESS COVERAGE. SO CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SHOWERS TUESDAY...DECREASING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN
AREAS. SOME COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE UPPER ENERGY EXITS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST UPSTREAM UPPER CUTOFF
ENERGY TRACKS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS...AND
WHETHER SOME AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...COULD GET SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SOME 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AGAIN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...IF THE COLDER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE END UP VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE LATER
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BETWEEN
06Z AND 09Z EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR. AFTER 16Z VSBYS WILL
RETURN TO MAINLY VFR...WITH CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MVFR RANGE
UNTIL AROUND 19Z...WHEN CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO ABIVE 3000 FEET.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE
INTERVALS OF LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH 100 PERCENT SINCE SOME RAIN IS LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY. IT WILL TURN A BIT
BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

ON SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT
WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE
DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE
SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SNOW SURVEY DATA FROM
COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO SNOW MELT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SND/HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 170208
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1008 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. ON FRIDAY...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
BY AFTERNOON AND SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER IN THE DAY. THE
WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH COOL MORNINGS FOLLOWED BY MILD AFTERNOONS.
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL NY...BUT JUST SPRINKLES AT
BEST. AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW STILL QUITE A BIT OF A DRY LAYER
ACROSS THE REGION. TOUGH TO TIME WHEN THE DRY LAYER WILL BE
SATURATED ENOUGH TO ALLOW MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR
AREA...AS SPRINKLES COULD DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NY AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

WITH THE DRY LAYER OVER THE REGION...IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT FOR THE MEASURABLE RAIN TO REACH US AND THE CURRENT
FORECAST SEEMS TO BE GOOD BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS. NUDGED DOWN THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
06Z...BUT DID NOT TOUCH THE FORECASTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS BEYOND 06Z
SINCE AGAIN...IT IS TOUGH TO TIME THE SATURATION OF THE LAYER AND
HOW IT WILL AFFECT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITAION THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DONE BY NOON AND ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DONE BY 2 PM. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
THIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE
WEST...AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA OR SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH
SUNSHINE. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY
IMPACT WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING
FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A
ANTI CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS
(WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY).
IT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. IF WINDS DIMINISH...A WIDESPREAD FROST
OR FREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HE WEEKEND ENDS DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.  THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES IN FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
JET ENERGY.  SO...RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND COVERAGE INCREASES TO LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S...SOME MID
TO UPPER 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ONE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY COULD POTENTIALLY EXIT TUESDAY BUT WITH
UPPER ENERGY UPSTREAM CUTTING OFF AND WE REMAIN IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW...MORE CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY COULD SUPPORT MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS...BUT LESS COVERAGE. SO CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SHOWERS TUESDAY...DECREASING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN
AREAS. SOME COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE UPPER ENERGY EXITS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST UPSTREAM UPPER CUTOFF
ENERGY TRACKS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS...AND
WHETHER SOME AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...COULD GET SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SOME 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AGAIN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...IF THE COLDER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE END UP VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE LATER
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BETWEEN
06Z AND 09Z EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR. AFTER 16Z VSBYS WILL
RETURN TO MAINLY VFR...WITH CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MVFR RANGE
UNTIL AROUND 19Z...WHEN CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO ABIVE 3000 FEET.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE
INTERVALS OF LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH 100 PERCENT SINCE SOME RAIN IS LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY. IT WILL TURN A BIT
BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

ON SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT
WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE
DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE
SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SNOW SURVEY DATA FROM
COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO SNOW MELT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SND/HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 170208
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1008 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. ON FRIDAY...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
BY AFTERNOON AND SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER IN THE DAY. THE
WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH COOL MORNINGS FOLLOWED BY MILD AFTERNOONS.
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL NY...BUT JUST SPRINKLES AT
BEST. AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW STILL QUITE A BIT OF A DRY LAYER
ACROSS THE REGION. TOUGH TO TIME WHEN THE DRY LAYER WILL BE
SATURATED ENOUGH TO ALLOW MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR
AREA...AS SPRINKLES COULD DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NY AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

WITH THE DRY LAYER OVER THE REGION...IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT FOR THE MEASURABLE RAIN TO REACH US AND THE CURRENT
FORECAST SEEMS TO BE GOOD BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS. NUDGED DOWN THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
06Z...BUT DID NOT TOUCH THE FORECASTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS BEYOND 06Z
SINCE AGAIN...IT IS TOUGH TO TIME THE SATURATION OF THE LAYER AND
HOW IT WILL AFFECT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITAION THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DONE BY NOON AND ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DONE BY 2 PM. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
THIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE
WEST...AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA OR SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH
SUNSHINE. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY
IMPACT WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING
FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A
ANTI CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS
(WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY).
IT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. IF WINDS DIMINISH...A WIDESPREAD FROST
OR FREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HE WEEKEND ENDS DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.  THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES IN FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
JET ENERGY.  SO...RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND COVERAGE INCREASES TO LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S...SOME MID
TO UPPER 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ONE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY COULD POTENTIALLY EXIT TUESDAY BUT WITH
UPPER ENERGY UPSTREAM CUTTING OFF AND WE REMAIN IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW...MORE CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY COULD SUPPORT MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS...BUT LESS COVERAGE. SO CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SHOWERS TUESDAY...DECREASING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN
AREAS. SOME COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE UPPER ENERGY EXITS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST UPSTREAM UPPER CUTOFF
ENERGY TRACKS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS...AND
WHETHER SOME AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...COULD GET SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SOME 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AGAIN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...IF THE COLDER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE END UP VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE LATER
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BETWEEN
06Z AND 09Z EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR. AFTER 16Z VSBYS WILL
RETURN TO MAINLY VFR...WITH CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MVFR RANGE
UNTIL AROUND 19Z...WHEN CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO ABIVE 3000 FEET.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE
INTERVALS OF LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH 100 PERCENT SINCE SOME RAIN IS LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY. IT WILL TURN A BIT
BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

ON SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT
WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE
DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE
SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SNOW SURVEY DATA FROM
COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO SNOW MELT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SND/HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KBTV 170158
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
958 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER OF THE PAST TWO DAYS WILL COME TO AN END
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA
AND BRINGS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
LATER ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 956 PM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. RAIN
SHOWERS PROGRESSING INTO THE WATERTOWN NY REGION AS OF 10 PM AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. NO
MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 722 PM THURSDAY...
A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ANY CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING REMAINS BACK NEAR
BUFFALO...BUT WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS 03Z- 06Z AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
VERMONT 06Z-09Z. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE QUICK HITTING AND EXITING BY
15Z FRIDAY MORNING. WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
SEE A COMPONENT OF DOWNSLOPE DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...THEN
PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AS WINDS GO
WESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE GREENS. OVERALL THOUGH QPF WILL
BE LIGHT...RANGING FROM SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO UP TO A QUARTER OF AN
INCH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD...ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON TO PAST NIGHTS...WITH LOWS IN THE
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THUS DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING...BUT A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT. AGAIN...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
SHOWERS THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HAVE USED THE
HIGHER END VALUES OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...AS FEEL SUNDAY WILL BE A FULL SUN DAY AND
MODELS THIS TIME OF YEAR TEND TO BE A BIT TOO COOL WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES. THUS...HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUPER-BLEND GUIDANCE.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS TRYING TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL OPT TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THAT WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN
BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM COMING UP
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

EXPECTING MAINLY SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CANADA WHICH
WILL BRING UPPER SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING COLDER
AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SO
EXPECTING SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...BKN/OVC MID/HIGH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
00-04Z WITH PERIODS OF -RA/-SHRAS AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS IN THE
04-12Z TIME FRAME. CIGS LOWER TO MVFR/VFR FROM 015-040 AGL DURING
THIS PERIOD. AFTER 12Z PCPN EXITS EAST WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR
ALL TERMINALS AND BECOMING SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5-12 KTS OVERNIGHT (SOUTEASTERLY AT KRUT),
TRENDING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AND MODESTLY GUSTY INTO THE 15-20
KT RANGE AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY-00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE AREA PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND AREAS
OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...JMG/WGH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 170158
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
958 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER OF THE PAST TWO DAYS WILL COME TO AN END
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA
AND BRINGS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
LATER ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 956 PM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. RAIN
SHOWERS PROGRESSING INTO THE WATERTOWN NY REGION AS OF 10 PM AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. NO
MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 722 PM THURSDAY...
A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ANY CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING REMAINS BACK NEAR
BUFFALO...BUT WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS 03Z- 06Z AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
VERMONT 06Z-09Z. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE QUICK HITTING AND EXITING BY
15Z FRIDAY MORNING. WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
SEE A COMPONENT OF DOWNSLOPE DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...THEN
PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AS WINDS GO
WESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE GREENS. OVERALL THOUGH QPF WILL
BE LIGHT...RANGING FROM SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO UP TO A QUARTER OF AN
INCH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD...ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON TO PAST NIGHTS...WITH LOWS IN THE
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THUS DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING...BUT A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT. AGAIN...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
SHOWERS THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HAVE USED THE
HIGHER END VALUES OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...AS FEEL SUNDAY WILL BE A FULL SUN DAY AND
MODELS THIS TIME OF YEAR TEND TO BE A BIT TOO COOL WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES. THUS...HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUPER-BLEND GUIDANCE.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS TRYING TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL OPT TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THAT WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN
BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM COMING UP
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

EXPECTING MAINLY SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CANADA WHICH
WILL BRING UPPER SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING COLDER
AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SO
EXPECTING SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...BKN/OVC MID/HIGH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
00-04Z WITH PERIODS OF -RA/-SHRAS AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS IN THE
04-12Z TIME FRAME. CIGS LOWER TO MVFR/VFR FROM 015-040 AGL DURING
THIS PERIOD. AFTER 12Z PCPN EXITS EAST WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR
ALL TERMINALS AND BECOMING SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5-12 KTS OVERNIGHT (SOUTEASTERLY AT KRUT),
TRENDING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AND MODESTLY GUSTY INTO THE 15-20
KT RANGE AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY-00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE AREA PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND AREAS
OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...JMG/WGH



000
FXUS61 KBTV 170158
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
958 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER OF THE PAST TWO DAYS WILL COME TO AN END
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA
AND BRINGS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
LATER ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 956 PM EDT THURSDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. RAIN
SHOWERS PROGRESSING INTO THE WATERTOWN NY REGION AS OF 10 PM AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. NO
MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 722 PM THURSDAY...
A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ANY CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING REMAINS BACK NEAR
BUFFALO...BUT WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS 03Z- 06Z AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
VERMONT 06Z-09Z. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE QUICK HITTING AND EXITING BY
15Z FRIDAY MORNING. WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
SEE A COMPONENT OF DOWNSLOPE DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...THEN
PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AS WINDS GO
WESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE GREENS. OVERALL THOUGH QPF WILL
BE LIGHT...RANGING FROM SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO UP TO A QUARTER OF AN
INCH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD...ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON TO PAST NIGHTS...WITH LOWS IN THE
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THUS DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING...BUT A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT. AGAIN...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
SHOWERS THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HAVE USED THE
HIGHER END VALUES OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...AS FEEL SUNDAY WILL BE A FULL SUN DAY AND
MODELS THIS TIME OF YEAR TEND TO BE A BIT TOO COOL WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES. THUS...HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUPER-BLEND GUIDANCE.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS TRYING TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL OPT TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THAT WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN
BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM COMING UP
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

EXPECTING MAINLY SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CANADA WHICH
WILL BRING UPPER SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING COLDER
AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SO
EXPECTING SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...BKN/OVC MID/HIGH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
00-04Z WITH PERIODS OF -RA/-SHRAS AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS IN THE
04-12Z TIME FRAME. CIGS LOWER TO MVFR/VFR FROM 015-040 AGL DURING
THIS PERIOD. AFTER 12Z PCPN EXITS EAST WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR
ALL TERMINALS AND BECOMING SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5-12 KTS OVERNIGHT (SOUTEASTERLY AT KRUT),
TRENDING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AND MODESTLY GUSTY INTO THE 15-20
KT RANGE AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY-00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE AREA PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND AREAS
OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...JMG/WGH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 162329
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
729 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER OF THE PAST TWO DAYS WILL COME TO AN END
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA
AND BRINGS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
LATER ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 722 PM EDT THURSDAY...A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS TO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. ANY CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING REMAINS
BACK NEAR BUFFALO...BUT WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS 03Z-06Z AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND VERMONT 06Z-09Z. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE QUICK HITTING AND
EXITING BY 15Z FRIDAY MORNING. WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL LIKELY SEE A COMPONENT OF DOWNSLOPE DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...THEN PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
AS WINDS GO WESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE GREENS. OVERALL
THOUGH QPF WILL BE LIGHT...RANGING FROM SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD...ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON TO PAST NIGHTS...WITH LOWS IN THE
40S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THUS DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING...BUT A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT. AGAIN...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
SHOWERS THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HAVE USED THE
HIGHER END VALUES OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...AS FEEL SUNDAY WILL BE A FULL SUN DAY AND
MODELS THIS TIME OF YEAR TEND TO BE A BIT TOO COOL WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES. THUS...HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUPER-BLEND GUIDANCE.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS TRYING TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL OPT TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THAT WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN
BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM COMING UP
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

EXPECTING MAINLY SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CANADA WHICH
WILL BRING UPPER SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING COLDER
AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SO
EXPECTING SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...BKN/OVC MID/HIGH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
00-04Z WITH PERIODS OF -RA/-SHRAS AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS IN THE
04-12Z TIME FRAME. CIGS LOWER TO MVFR/VFR FROM 015-040 AGL DURING
THIS PERIOD. AFTER 12Z PCPN EXITS EAST WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR
ALL TERMINALS AND BECOMING SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5-12 KTS OVERNIGHT (SOUTEASTERLY AT KRUT),
TRENDING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AND MODESTLY GUSTY INTO THE 15-20
KT RANGE AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY-00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE AREA PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND AREAS
OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...JMG/WGH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 162329
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
729 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER OF THE PAST TWO DAYS WILL COME TO AN END
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA
AND BRINGS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
LATER ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 722 PM EDT THURSDAY...A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS TO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. ANY CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING REMAINS
BACK NEAR BUFFALO...BUT WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS 03Z-06Z AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND VERMONT 06Z-09Z. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE QUICK HITTING AND
EXITING BY 15Z FRIDAY MORNING. WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL LIKELY SEE A COMPONENT OF DOWNSLOPE DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...THEN PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
AS WINDS GO WESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE GREENS. OVERALL
THOUGH QPF WILL BE LIGHT...RANGING FROM SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD...ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON TO PAST NIGHTS...WITH LOWS IN THE
40S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THUS DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING...BUT A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT. AGAIN...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
SHOWERS THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HAVE USED THE
HIGHER END VALUES OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...AS FEEL SUNDAY WILL BE A FULL SUN DAY AND
MODELS THIS TIME OF YEAR TEND TO BE A BIT TOO COOL WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES. THUS...HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUPER-BLEND GUIDANCE.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS TRYING TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL OPT TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THAT WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN
BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM COMING UP
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

EXPECTING MAINLY SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CANADA WHICH
WILL BRING UPPER SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING COLDER
AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SO
EXPECTING SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...BKN/OVC MID/HIGH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
00-04Z WITH PERIODS OF -RA/-SHRAS AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS IN THE
04-12Z TIME FRAME. CIGS LOWER TO MVFR/VFR FROM 015-040 AGL DURING
THIS PERIOD. AFTER 12Z PCPN EXITS EAST WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR
ALL TERMINALS AND BECOMING SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5-12 KTS OVERNIGHT (SOUTEASTERLY AT KRUT),
TRENDING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AND MODESTLY GUSTY INTO THE 15-20
KT RANGE AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY-00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE AREA PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND AREAS
OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...JMG/WGH



000
FXUS61 KBTV 162329
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
729 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER OF THE PAST TWO DAYS WILL COME TO AN END
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA
AND BRINGS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
LATER ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 722 PM EDT THURSDAY...A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS TO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. ANY CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING REMAINS
BACK NEAR BUFFALO...BUT WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS 03Z-06Z AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND VERMONT 06Z-09Z. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE QUICK HITTING AND
EXITING BY 15Z FRIDAY MORNING. WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL LIKELY SEE A COMPONENT OF DOWNSLOPE DRYING IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...THEN PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
AS WINDS GO WESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE GREENS. OVERALL
THOUGH QPF WILL BE LIGHT...RANGING FROM SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/NORTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD...ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON TO PAST NIGHTS...WITH LOWS IN THE
40S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THUS DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING...BUT A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT. AGAIN...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
SHOWERS THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HAVE USED THE
HIGHER END VALUES OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...AS FEEL SUNDAY WILL BE A FULL SUN DAY AND
MODELS THIS TIME OF YEAR TEND TO BE A BIT TOO COOL WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES. THUS...HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUPER-BLEND GUIDANCE.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS TRYING TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL OPT TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THAT WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN
BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM COMING UP
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

EXPECTING MAINLY SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CANADA WHICH
WILL BRING UPPER SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING COLDER
AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SO
EXPECTING SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...BKN/OVC MID/HIGH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
00-04Z WITH PERIODS OF -RA/-SHRAS AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS IN THE
04-12Z TIME FRAME. CIGS LOWER TO MVFR/VFR FROM 015-040 AGL DURING
THIS PERIOD. AFTER 12Z PCPN EXITS EAST WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR
ALL TERMINALS AND BECOMING SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5-12 KTS OVERNIGHT (SOUTEASTERLY AT KRUT),
TRENDING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AND MODESTLY GUSTY INTO THE 15-20
KT RANGE AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY-00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE AREA PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND AREAS
OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...JMG/WGH




000
FXUS61 KALY 162321
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
721 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. ON
FRIDAY...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AND
SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER IN THE DAY. THE WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY WITH COOL MORNINGS FOLLOWED BY MILD AFTERNOONS. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

CLOUDS SPREADING EAST AND THE LEADING EDGE OF SHOWRS ABOUT TO
BUF. WITH THE DRY LAYER OVER THE REGION...IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT FOR THE SHOWERS TO REACH US AND THE CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS
TO BE GOOD BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY IN THE MODELS WITH THE LATEST RUNS. A BLEND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE GIVES OUR FORECAST AREA SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33
INCHES OF RAIN.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DONE BY NOON AND ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DONE BY 2 PM. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
THIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE
WEST...AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA OR SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH
SUNSHINE. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY
IMPACT WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING
FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A
ANTI CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS
(WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY).
IT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. IF WINDS DIMINISH...A WIDESPREAD FROST
OR FREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HE WEEKEND ENDS DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.  THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES IN FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
JET ENERGY.  SO...RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND COVERAGE INCREASES TO LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S...SOME MID
TO UPPER 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ONE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY COULD POTENTIALLY EXIT TUESDAY BUT WITH
UPPER ENERGY UPSTREAM CUTTING OFF AND WE REMAIN IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW...MORE CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY COULD SUPPORT MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS...BUT LESS COVERAGE. SO CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SHOWERS TUESDAY...DECREASING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN
AREAS. SOME COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE UPPER ENERGY EXITS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST UPSTREAM UPPER CUTOFF
ENERGY TRACKS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS...AND
WHETHER SOME AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...COULD GET SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SOME 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AGAIN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...IF THE COLDER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE END UP VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE LATER
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BETWEEN
06Z AND 09Z EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR. AFTER 16Z VSBYS WILL
RETURN TO MAINLY VFR...WITH CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MVFR RANGE
UNTIL AROUND 19Z...WHEN CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO ABIVE 3000 FEET.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE
INTERVALS OF LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH 100 PERCENT SINCE SOME RAIN IS LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY. IT WILL TURN A BIT
BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

ON SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT
WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE
DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE
SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SNOW SURVEY DATA FROM
COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO SNOW MELT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SND/HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 162321
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
721 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. ON
FRIDAY...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AND
SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER IN THE DAY. THE WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY WITH COOL MORNINGS FOLLOWED BY MILD AFTERNOONS. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

CLOUDS SPREADING EAST AND THE LEADING EDGE OF SHOWRS ABOUT TO
BUF. WITH THE DRY LAYER OVER THE REGION...IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT FOR THE SHOWERS TO REACH US AND THE CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS
TO BE GOOD BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY IN THE MODELS WITH THE LATEST RUNS. A BLEND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE GIVES OUR FORECAST AREA SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33
INCHES OF RAIN.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DONE BY NOON AND ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DONE BY 2 PM. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
THIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE
WEST...AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA OR SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH
SUNSHINE. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY
IMPACT WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING
FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A
ANTI CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS
(WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY).
IT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. IF WINDS DIMINISH...A WIDESPREAD FROST
OR FREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HE WEEKEND ENDS DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.  THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES IN FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
JET ENERGY.  SO...RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND COVERAGE INCREASES TO LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S...SOME MID
TO UPPER 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ONE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY COULD POTENTIALLY EXIT TUESDAY BUT WITH
UPPER ENERGY UPSTREAM CUTTING OFF AND WE REMAIN IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW...MORE CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY COULD SUPPORT MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS...BUT LESS COVERAGE. SO CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SHOWERS TUESDAY...DECREASING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN
AREAS. SOME COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE UPPER ENERGY EXITS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST UPSTREAM UPPER CUTOFF
ENERGY TRACKS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS...AND
WHETHER SOME AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...COULD GET SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SOME 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AGAIN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...IF THE COLDER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE END UP VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE LATER
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BETWEEN
06Z AND 09Z EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR. AFTER 16Z VSBYS WILL
RETURN TO MAINLY VFR...WITH CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MVFR RANGE
UNTIL AROUND 19Z...WHEN CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO ABIVE 3000 FEET.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE
INTERVALS OF LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH 100 PERCENT SINCE SOME RAIN IS LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY. IT WILL TURN A BIT
BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

ON SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT
WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE
DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE
SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SNOW SURVEY DATA FROM
COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO SNOW MELT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SND/HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 162321
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
721 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. ON
FRIDAY...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AND
SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER IN THE DAY. THE WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY WITH COOL MORNINGS FOLLOWED BY MILD AFTERNOONS. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

CLOUDS SPREADING EAST AND THE LEADING EDGE OF SHOWRS ABOUT TO
BUF. WITH THE DRY LAYER OVER THE REGION...IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT FOR THE SHOWERS TO REACH US AND THE CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS
TO BE GOOD BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY IN THE MODELS WITH THE LATEST RUNS. A BLEND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE GIVES OUR FORECAST AREA SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33
INCHES OF RAIN.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DONE BY NOON AND ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DONE BY 2 PM. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
THIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE
WEST...AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA OR SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH
SUNSHINE. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY
IMPACT WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING
FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A
ANTI CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS
(WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY).
IT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. IF WINDS DIMINISH...A WIDESPREAD FROST
OR FREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HE WEEKEND ENDS DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.  THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES IN FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
JET ENERGY.  SO...RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND COVERAGE INCREASES TO LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S...SOME MID
TO UPPER 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ONE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY COULD POTENTIALLY EXIT TUESDAY BUT WITH
UPPER ENERGY UPSTREAM CUTTING OFF AND WE REMAIN IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW...MORE CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY COULD SUPPORT MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS...BUT LESS COVERAGE. SO CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SHOWERS TUESDAY...DECREASING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN
AREAS. SOME COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE UPPER ENERGY EXITS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST UPSTREAM UPPER CUTOFF
ENERGY TRACKS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS...AND
WHETHER SOME AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...COULD GET SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SOME 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AGAIN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...IF THE COLDER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE END UP VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE LATER
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BETWEEN
06Z AND 09Z EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR. AFTER 16Z VSBYS WILL
RETURN TO MAINLY VFR...WITH CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MVFR RANGE
UNTIL AROUND 19Z...WHEN CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO ABIVE 3000 FEET.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE
INTERVALS OF LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH 100 PERCENT SINCE SOME RAIN IS LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY. IT WILL TURN A BIT
BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

ON SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT
WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE
DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE
SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SNOW SURVEY DATA FROM
COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO SNOW MELT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SND/HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 162321
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
721 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. ON
FRIDAY...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AND
SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER IN THE DAY. THE WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY WITH COOL MORNINGS FOLLOWED BY MILD AFTERNOONS. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

CLOUDS SPREADING EAST AND THE LEADING EDGE OF SHOWRS ABOUT TO
BUF. WITH THE DRY LAYER OVER THE REGION...IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT FOR THE SHOWERS TO REACH US AND THE CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS
TO BE GOOD BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY IN THE MODELS WITH THE LATEST RUNS. A BLEND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE GIVES OUR FORECAST AREA SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33
INCHES OF RAIN.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DONE BY NOON AND ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DONE BY 2 PM. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
THIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE
WEST...AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA OR SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH
SUNSHINE. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY
IMPACT WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING
FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A
ANTI CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS
(WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY).
IT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. IF WINDS DIMINISH...A WIDESPREAD FROST
OR FREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HE WEEKEND ENDS DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.  THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES IN FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
JET ENERGY.  SO...RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND COVERAGE INCREASES TO LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S...SOME MID
TO UPPER 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ONE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY COULD POTENTIALLY EXIT TUESDAY BUT WITH
UPPER ENERGY UPSTREAM CUTTING OFF AND WE REMAIN IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW...MORE CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY COULD SUPPORT MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS...BUT LESS COVERAGE. SO CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SHOWERS TUESDAY...DECREASING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN
AREAS. SOME COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE UPPER ENERGY EXITS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST UPSTREAM UPPER CUTOFF
ENERGY TRACKS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS...AND
WHETHER SOME AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...COULD GET SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SOME 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AGAIN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...IF THE COLDER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE END UP VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE LATER
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BETWEEN
06Z AND 09Z EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR. AFTER 16Z VSBYS WILL
RETURN TO MAINLY VFR...WITH CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MVFR RANGE
UNTIL AROUND 19Z...WHEN CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO ABIVE 3000 FEET.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE
INTERVALS OF LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH 100 PERCENT SINCE SOME RAIN IS LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY. IT WILL TURN A BIT
BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

ON SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT
WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE
DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE
SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SNOW SURVEY DATA FROM
COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO SNOW MELT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SND/HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KBTV 162306
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
706 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER OF THE PAST TWO DAYS WILL COME TO AN END
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA
AND BRINGS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
LATER ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 12 TO 22
PERCENT RANGE. VERY SHARP DEW POINT GRADIENT IS WORKING ITS WAY
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THIS BOUNDARY...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA... ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A QUARTER INCH OR
LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THUS DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING...BUT A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT. AGAIN...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
SHOWERS THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HAVE USED THE
HIGHER END VALUES OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...AS FEEL SUNDAY WILL BE A FULL SUN DAY AND
MODELS THIS TIME OF YEAR TEND TO BE A BIT TOO COOL WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES. THUS...HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUPER-BLEND GUIDANCE.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS TRYING TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL OPT TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THAT WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN
BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM COMING UP
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

EXPECTING MAINLY SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CANADA WHICH
WILL BRING UPPER SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING COLDER
AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SO
EXPECTING SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...BKN/OVC MID/HIGH CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
00-04Z WITH PERIODS OF -RA/-SHRAS AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS IN THE
04-12Z TIME FRAME. CIGS LOWER TO MVFR/VFR FROM 015-040 AGL DURING
THIS PERIOD. AFTER 12Z PCPN EXITS EAST WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR
ALL TERMINALS AND BECOMING SCT AFTER 20Z. WINDS MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY 5-12 KTS OVERNIGHT (SOUTEASTERLY AT KRUT),
TRENDING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AND MODESTLY GUSTY INTO THE 15-20
KT RANGE AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY-00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE AREA PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND AREAS
OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...JMG/WGH




000
FXUS61 KALY 162037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
437 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. ON
FRIDAY...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AND
SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER IN THE DAY. THE WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY WITH COOL MORNINGS FOLLOWED BY MILD AFTERNOONS. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 425 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
CONTINUE ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA WITH JUST SOME THIN HIGH
CLOUDS FILTERING THE SUNSHINE. WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S
AND 70S ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER THROUGH
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY IN THE MODELS WITH THE LATEST RUNS. A BLEND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE GIVES OUR FORECAST AREA SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33
INCHES OF RAIN.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DONE BY NOON AND ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DONE BY 2 PM. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
THIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH
OF THE AREA SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM
THE WEST...AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA OR SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH
SUNSHINE. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY
IMPACT WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING
FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A
ANTI CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS
(WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY).
IT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. IF WINDS DIMINISH...A WIDESPREAD FROST
OR FREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HE WEEKEND ENDS DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.  THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES IN FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
JET ENERGY.  SO...RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND COVERAGE INCREASES TO LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S...SOME MID
TO UPPER 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ONE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY COULD POTENTIALLY EXIT TUESDAY BUT WITH
UPPER ENERGY UPSTREAM CUTTING OFF AND WE REMAIN IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW...MORE CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY COULD SUPPORT MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS...BUT LESS COVERAGE. SO CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SHOWERS TUESDAY...DECREASING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN
AREAS. SOME COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE UPPER ENERGY EXITS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST UPSTREAM UPPER CUTOFF
ENERGY TRACKS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS...AND
WHETHER SOME AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...COULD GET SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SOME 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AGAIN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...IF THE COLDER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE END UP VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BETWEEN 06Z
AND 09Z EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR. AFTER 16Z VSBYS WILL
RETURN TO MAINLY VFR...WITH CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MVFR RANGE
UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 18Z FRIDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS THIS EVENING. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH 100 PERCENT SINCE SOME RAIN IS LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY. IT WILL TURN A BIT
BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

ON SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT
WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE
DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE
SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SNOW SURVEY DATA FROM
COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO SNOW MELT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...SND/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...SND
HYDROLOGY...SND




000
FXUS61 KALY 162037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
437 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. ON
FRIDAY...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AND
SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER IN THE DAY. THE WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY WITH COOL MORNINGS FOLLOWED BY MILD AFTERNOONS. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 425 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
CONTINUE ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA WITH JUST SOME THIN HIGH
CLOUDS FILTERING THE SUNSHINE. WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S
AND 70S ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER THROUGH
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY IN THE MODELS WITH THE LATEST RUNS. A BLEND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE GIVES OUR FORECAST AREA SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33
INCHES OF RAIN.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DONE BY NOON AND ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DONE BY 2 PM. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
THIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH
OF THE AREA SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM
THE WEST...AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA OR SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH
SUNSHINE. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY
IMPACT WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING
FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A
ANTI CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS
(WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY).
IT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. IF WINDS DIMINISH...A WIDESPREAD FROST
OR FREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HE WEEKEND ENDS DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.  THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES IN FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
JET ENERGY.  SO...RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND COVERAGE INCREASES TO LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S...SOME MID
TO UPPER 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ONE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY COULD POTENTIALLY EXIT TUESDAY BUT WITH
UPPER ENERGY UPSTREAM CUTTING OFF AND WE REMAIN IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW...MORE CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY COULD SUPPORT MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS...BUT LESS COVERAGE. SO CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SHOWERS TUESDAY...DECREASING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN
AREAS. SOME COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE UPPER ENERGY EXITS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST UPSTREAM UPPER CUTOFF
ENERGY TRACKS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS...AND
WHETHER SOME AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...COULD GET SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SOME 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AGAIN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...IF THE COLDER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE END UP VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BETWEEN 06Z
AND 09Z EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR. AFTER 16Z VSBYS WILL
RETURN TO MAINLY VFR...WITH CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MVFR RANGE
UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 18Z FRIDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS THIS EVENING. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH 100 PERCENT SINCE SOME RAIN IS LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY. IT WILL TURN A BIT
BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

ON SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT
WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE
DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE
SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SNOW SURVEY DATA FROM
COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO SNOW MELT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...SND/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...SND
HYDROLOGY...SND



000
FXUS61 KALY 162037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
437 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. ON
FRIDAY...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AND
SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER IN THE DAY. THE WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY WITH COOL MORNINGS FOLLOWED BY MILD AFTERNOONS. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 425 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
CONTINUE ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA WITH JUST SOME THIN HIGH
CLOUDS FILTERING THE SUNSHINE. WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S
AND 70S ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER THROUGH
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY IN THE MODELS WITH THE LATEST RUNS. A BLEND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE GIVES OUR FORECAST AREA SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33
INCHES OF RAIN.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DONE BY NOON AND ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DONE BY 2 PM. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
THIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH
OF THE AREA SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM
THE WEST...AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA OR SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH
SUNSHINE. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY
IMPACT WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING
FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A
ANTI CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS
(WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY).
IT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. IF WINDS DIMINISH...A WIDESPREAD FROST
OR FREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HE WEEKEND ENDS DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.  THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES IN FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
JET ENERGY.  SO...RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND COVERAGE INCREASES TO LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S...SOME MID
TO UPPER 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ONE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY COULD POTENTIALLY EXIT TUESDAY BUT WITH
UPPER ENERGY UPSTREAM CUTTING OFF AND WE REMAIN IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW...MORE CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY COULD SUPPORT MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS...BUT LESS COVERAGE. SO CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SHOWERS TUESDAY...DECREASING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN
AREAS. SOME COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE UPPER ENERGY EXITS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST UPSTREAM UPPER CUTOFF
ENERGY TRACKS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS...AND
WHETHER SOME AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...COULD GET SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SOME 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AGAIN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...IF THE COLDER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE END UP VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BETWEEN 06Z
AND 09Z EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR. AFTER 16Z VSBYS WILL
RETURN TO MAINLY VFR...WITH CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MVFR RANGE
UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 18Z FRIDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS THIS EVENING. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH 100 PERCENT SINCE SOME RAIN IS LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY. IT WILL TURN A BIT
BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

ON SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT
WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE
DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE
SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SNOW SURVEY DATA FROM
COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO SNOW MELT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...SND/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...SND
HYDROLOGY...SND




000
FXUS61 KALY 162037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
437 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. ON
FRIDAY...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AND
SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER IN THE DAY. THE WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY WITH COOL MORNINGS FOLLOWED BY MILD AFTERNOONS. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 425 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
CONTINUE ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA WITH JUST SOME THIN HIGH
CLOUDS FILTERING THE SUNSHINE. WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S
AND 70S ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER THROUGH
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY IN THE MODELS WITH THE LATEST RUNS. A BLEND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE GIVES OUR FORECAST AREA SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33
INCHES OF RAIN.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DONE BY NOON AND ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DONE BY 2 PM. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
THIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH
OF THE AREA SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM
THE WEST...AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA OR SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH
SUNSHINE. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY
IMPACT WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING
FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A
ANTI CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS
(WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY).
IT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. IF WINDS DIMINISH...A WIDESPREAD FROST
OR FREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HE WEEKEND ENDS DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.  THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES IN FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
JET ENERGY.  SO...RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND COVERAGE INCREASES TO LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S...SOME MID
TO UPPER 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ONE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY COULD POTENTIALLY EXIT TUESDAY BUT WITH
UPPER ENERGY UPSTREAM CUTTING OFF AND WE REMAIN IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW...MORE CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY COULD SUPPORT MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS...BUT LESS COVERAGE. SO CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SHOWERS TUESDAY...DECREASING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN
AREAS. SOME COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE UPPER ENERGY EXITS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST UPSTREAM UPPER CUTOFF
ENERGY TRACKS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS...AND
WHETHER SOME AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...COULD GET SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SOME 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AGAIN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...IF THE COLDER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE END UP VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BETWEEN 06Z
AND 09Z EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR. AFTER 16Z VSBYS WILL
RETURN TO MAINLY VFR...WITH CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MVFR RANGE
UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 18Z FRIDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS THIS EVENING. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH 100 PERCENT SINCE SOME RAIN IS LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY. IT WILL TURN A BIT
BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

ON SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT
WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE
DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE
SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SNOW SURVEY DATA FROM
COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO SNOW MELT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...SND/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...SND
HYDROLOGY...SND



000
FXUS61 KALY 162025
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
425 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. ON
FRIDAY...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AND
SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER IN THE DAY. THE WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY WITH COOL MORNINGS FOLLOWED BY MILD AFTERNOONS. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 425 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
CONTINUE ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA WITH JUST SOME THIN HIGH
CLOUDS FILTERING THE SUNSHINE. WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S
AND 70S ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER THROUGH
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY IN THE MODELS WITH THE LATEST RUNS. A BLEND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE GIVES OUR FORECAST AREA SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33
INCHES OF RAIN.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DONE BY NOON AND ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DONE BY 2 PM. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
THIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH
OF THE AREA SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM
THE WEST...AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA OR SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH
SUNSHINE. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY
IMPACT WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING
FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A
ANTI CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS
(WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY).
IT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. IF WINDS DIMINISH...A WIDESPREAD FROST
OR FREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HE WEEKEND ENDS DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.  THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES IN FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
JET ENERGY.  SO...RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND COVERAGE INCREASES TO LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S...SOME MID
TO UPPER 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ONE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY COULD POTENTIALLY EXIT TUESDAY BUT WITH
UPPER ENERGY UPSTREAM CUTTING OFF AND WE REMAIN IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW...MORE CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY COULD SUPPORT MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS...BUT LESS COVERAGE. SO CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SHOWERS TUESDAY...DECREASING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN
AREAS. SOME COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE UPPER ENERGY EXITS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST UPSTREAM UPPER CUTOFF
ENERGY TRACKS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS...AND
WHETHER SOME AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...COULD GET SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SOME 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AGAIN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...IF THE COLDER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE END UP VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BETWEEN 06Z
AND 09Z EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR. AFTER 16Z VSBYS WILL
RETURN TO MAINLY VFR...WITH CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MVFR RANGE
UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 18Z FRIDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS THIS EVENING. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH 100 PERCENT SINCE SOME RAIN IS LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY. IT WILL TURN A BIT
BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT WILL
HOWEVER...TIGHTEN A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL
LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE DON/T
RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE SOME
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SNOW SURVEY DATA FROM
COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO SNOW MELT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...SND/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND



000
FXUS61 KALY 162025
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
425 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. ON
FRIDAY...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AND
SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER IN THE DAY. THE WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY WITH COOL MORNINGS FOLLOWED BY MILD AFTERNOONS. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 425 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
CONTINUE ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA WITH JUST SOME THIN HIGH
CLOUDS FILTERING THE SUNSHINE. WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S
AND 70S ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER THROUGH
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY IN THE MODELS WITH THE LATEST RUNS. A BLEND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE GIVES OUR FORECAST AREA SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33
INCHES OF RAIN.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DONE BY NOON AND ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DONE BY 2 PM. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
THIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH
OF THE AREA SUNNY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM
THE WEST...AND BECOME BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LAKE
GEORGE AREA OR SOUTHERN VERMONT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH
SUNSHINE. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL MAINLY
IMPACT WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ON SATURDAY. 12Z NAM IS FURTHEST
SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM AND HAS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING
FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 12Z EURO SHOWS MORE OF A
ANTI CYCLONIC WIND FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS
(WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY).
IT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. IF WINDS DIMINISH...A WIDESPREAD FROST
OR FREEZE WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HE WEEKEND ENDS DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.  THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVES IN FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
JET ENERGY.  SO...RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND COVERAGE INCREASES TO LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S...SOME MID
TO UPPER 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ONE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY COULD POTENTIALLY EXIT TUESDAY BUT WITH
UPPER ENERGY UPSTREAM CUTTING OFF AND WE REMAIN IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW...MORE CHANNELED UPPER ENERGY COULD SUPPORT MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS...BUT LESS COVERAGE. SO CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SHOWERS TUESDAY...DECREASING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AROUND 50 NORTHERN
AREAS. SOME COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE UPPER ENERGY EXITS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST UPSTREAM UPPER CUTOFF
ENERGY TRACKS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS...AND
WHETHER SOME AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...COULD GET SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
SOME 40S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AGAIN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...IF THE COLDER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE END UP VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BETWEEN 06Z
AND 09Z EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR. AFTER 16Z VSBYS WILL
RETURN TO MAINLY VFR...WITH CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MVFR RANGE
UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 18Z FRIDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS THIS EVENING. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD
APPROACH 100 PERCENT SINCE SOME RAIN IS LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.33 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY. IT WILL TURN A BIT
BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
TO THE LAKE GEORGE AREA AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT WILL
HOWEVER...TIGHTEN A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL
LIKELY BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE DON/T
RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE SOME
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SNOW SURVEY DATA FROM
COOPERATORS...INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A FEW INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT IN THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND NORTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN HIGH IN THESE AREAS DUE TO SNOW MELT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...SND/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND




000
FXUS61 KBTV 161930
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER OF THE PAST TWO DAYS WILL COME TO AN END
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA
AND BRINGS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
LATER ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 12 TO 22
PERCENT RANGE. VERY SHARP DEW POINT GRADIENT IS WORKING ITS WAY
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THIS BOUNDARY...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA... ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A QUARTER INCH OR
LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THUS DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING...BUT A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT. AGAIN...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
SHOWERS THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HAVE USED THE
HIGHER END VALUES OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...AS FEEL SUNDAY WILL BE A FULL SUN DAY AND
MODELS THIS TIME OF YEAR TEND TO BE A BIT TOO COOL WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES. THUS...HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUPER-BLEND GUIDANCE.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS TRYING TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL OPT TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THAT WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN
BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM COMING UP
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

EXPECTING MAINLY SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CANADA WHICH
WILL BRING UPPER SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING COLDER
AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SO
EXPECTING SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN
MOUNTAINS.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 18Z THURSDAY. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO
LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 07Z-09Z FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME AREAS
OF MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY-00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE AREA PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND AREAS
OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 161930
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER OF THE PAST TWO DAYS WILL COME TO AN END
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA
AND BRINGS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
LATER ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 12 TO 22
PERCENT RANGE. VERY SHARP DEW POINT GRADIENT IS WORKING ITS WAY
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THIS BOUNDARY...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA... ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A QUARTER INCH OR
LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THUS DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING...BUT A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT. AGAIN...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
SHOWERS THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HAVE USED THE
HIGHER END VALUES OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...AS FEEL SUNDAY WILL BE A FULL SUN DAY AND
MODELS THIS TIME OF YEAR TEND TO BE A BIT TOO COOL WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES. THUS...HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUPER-BLEND GUIDANCE.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS TRYING TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL OPT TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THAT WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN
BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM COMING UP
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

EXPECTING MAINLY SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CANADA WHICH
WILL BRING UPPER SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING COLDER
AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SO
EXPECTING SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN
MOUNTAINS.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 18Z THURSDAY. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO
LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 07Z-09Z FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME AREAS
OF MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY-00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE AREA PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND AREAS
OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH



000
FXUS61 KBTV 161930
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER OF THE PAST TWO DAYS WILL COME TO AN END
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA
AND BRINGS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
LATER ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 12 TO 22
PERCENT RANGE. VERY SHARP DEW POINT GRADIENT IS WORKING ITS WAY
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THIS BOUNDARY...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA... ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A QUARTER INCH OR
LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THUS DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING...BUT A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT. AGAIN...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
SHOWERS THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HAVE USED THE
HIGHER END VALUES OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...AS FEEL SUNDAY WILL BE A FULL SUN DAY AND
MODELS THIS TIME OF YEAR TEND TO BE A BIT TOO COOL WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES. THUS...HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUPER-BLEND GUIDANCE.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS TRYING TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL OPT TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THAT WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN
BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM COMING UP
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

EXPECTING MAINLY SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CANADA WHICH
WILL BRING UPPER SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING COLDER
AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SO
EXPECTING SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN
MOUNTAINS.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 18Z THURSDAY. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO
LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 07Z-09Z FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME AREAS
OF MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY-00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE AREA PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND AREAS
OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 161930
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER OF THE PAST TWO DAYS WILL COME TO AN END
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA
AND BRINGS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
LATER ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 12 TO 22
PERCENT RANGE. VERY SHARP DEW POINT GRADIENT IS WORKING ITS WAY
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THIS BOUNDARY...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA... ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A QUARTER INCH OR
LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THUS DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING...BUT A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT. AGAIN...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
SHOWERS THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. HAVE USED THE
HIGHER END VALUES OF THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...AS FEEL SUNDAY WILL BE A FULL SUN DAY AND
MODELS THIS TIME OF YEAR TEND TO BE A BIT TOO COOL WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES. THUS...HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUPER-BLEND GUIDANCE.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS MODEL KEEPING THE REGION DRY SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS TRYING TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL OPT TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
NOW...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THAT WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN
BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM COMING UP
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

EXPECTING MAINLY SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CANADA WHICH
WILL BRING UPPER SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING COLDER
AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SO
EXPECTING SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN
MOUNTAINS.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 18Z THURSDAY. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO
LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 07Z-09Z FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME AREAS
OF MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY-00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE AREA PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND AREAS
OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH



000
FXUS61 KBTV 161912
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
312 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER OF THE PAST TWO DAYS WILL COME TO AN END
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA
AND BRINGS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
LATER ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 12 TO 22
PERCENT RANGE. VERY SHARP DEW POINT GRADIENT IS WORKING ITS WAY
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THIS BOUNDARY...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA... ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A QUARTER INCH OR
LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THUS DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING...BUT A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT. AGAIN...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
SHOWERS THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
CONTINUE TO BE TOWARDS A COOLER AND WETTER STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT FEATURING A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WHILE FURTHER
WESTWARD A CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO PHASE
WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST. AS
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY, CLEAR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL, LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE
50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH
OF WEATHER LASTING POSSIBLY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN
CONUS WITH SEVERAL INFLUXES OF GULF MOISTURE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE
PARENT UPPER LOW, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, PWATS
APPROACH 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SOME MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST
925-850MB JET OF 40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER, BUT I`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS AS WE REMAIN UNDER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM
THE FAIRLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S,
AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 18Z THURSDAY. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO
LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 07Z-09Z FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME AREAS
OF MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY-00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE AREA PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND AREAS
OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...WGH



000
FXUS61 KBTV 161912
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
312 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER OF THE PAST TWO DAYS WILL COME TO AN END
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA
AND BRINGS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
LATER ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 12 TO 22
PERCENT RANGE. VERY SHARP DEW POINT GRADIENT IS WORKING ITS WAY
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THIS BOUNDARY...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA... ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A QUARTER INCH OR
LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THUS DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING...BUT A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT. AGAIN...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
SHOWERS THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
CONTINUE TO BE TOWARDS A COOLER AND WETTER STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT FEATURING A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WHILE FURTHER
WESTWARD A CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO PHASE
WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST. AS
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY, CLEAR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL, LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE
50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH
OF WEATHER LASTING POSSIBLY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN
CONUS WITH SEVERAL INFLUXES OF GULF MOISTURE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE
PARENT UPPER LOW, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, PWATS
APPROACH 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SOME MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST
925-850MB JET OF 40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER, BUT I`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS AS WE REMAIN UNDER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM
THE FAIRLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S,
AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 18Z THURSDAY. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO
LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 07Z-09Z FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME AREAS
OF MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY-00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE AREA PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND AREAS
OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...WGH



000
FXUS61 KBTV 161912
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
312 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER OF THE PAST TWO DAYS WILL COME TO AN END
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA
AND BRINGS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
LATER ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 12 TO 22
PERCENT RANGE. VERY SHARP DEW POINT GRADIENT IS WORKING ITS WAY
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THIS BOUNDARY...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA... ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A QUARTER INCH OR
LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THUS DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING...BUT A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT. AGAIN...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
SHOWERS THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
CONTINUE TO BE TOWARDS A COOLER AND WETTER STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT FEATURING A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WHILE FURTHER
WESTWARD A CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO PHASE
WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST. AS
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY, CLEAR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL, LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE
50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH
OF WEATHER LASTING POSSIBLY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN
CONUS WITH SEVERAL INFLUXES OF GULF MOISTURE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE
PARENT UPPER LOW, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, PWATS
APPROACH 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SOME MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST
925-850MB JET OF 40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER, BUT I`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS AS WE REMAIN UNDER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM
THE FAIRLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S,
AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 18Z THURSDAY. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO
LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 07Z-09Z FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME AREAS
OF MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY-00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE AREA PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND AREAS
OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...WGH



000
FXUS61 KBTV 161912
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
312 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER OF THE PAST TWO DAYS WILL COME TO AN END
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. LOOK FOR OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BRIEF DRYING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA
AND BRINGS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
LATER ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 12 TO 22
PERCENT RANGE. VERY SHARP DEW POINT GRADIENT IS WORKING ITS WAY
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THIS BOUNDARY...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA... ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A QUARTER INCH OR
LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THUS DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING...BUT A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT. AGAIN...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
SHOWERS THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
CONTINUE TO BE TOWARDS A COOLER AND WETTER STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT FEATURING A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WHILE FURTHER
WESTWARD A CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO PHASE
WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST. AS
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY, CLEAR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL, LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE
50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH
OF WEATHER LASTING POSSIBLY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN
CONUS WITH SEVERAL INFLUXES OF GULF MOISTURE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE
PARENT UPPER LOW, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, PWATS
APPROACH 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SOME MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST
925-850MB JET OF 40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER, BUT I`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS AS WE REMAIN UNDER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM
THE FAIRLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S,
AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 18Z THURSDAY. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO
LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 07Z-09Z FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME AREAS
OF MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY-00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE AREA PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND AREAS
OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...WGH



000
FXUS61 KALY 161757
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
157 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND SUNSHINE...RESULTING IN ANOTHER MILD
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1259 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA WITH JUST SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS
FILTERING THE SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY
SINCE THE CHILLY START...AND ARE NOW IN THE MID 50S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS. FORECAST MAX TEMPS MAY BE ON
THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE. UNLESS CLOUDS THICKEN...SOME VALLEY
LOCATION MAY HIT 70F TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY NEAR LONG ISLAND NY...IS SLOWLY MOVING
OFFSHORE. A LIGHT RETURN SOUTH EASTERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING RAIN LATER
TONIGHT...IS NOW OVER ILLINOIS. RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE
NEAREST RAIN NOW IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. EXPECT CONTINUED FAIR
WEATHER HERE THROUGH SUNSET.

LATEST UPDATE HAS A REFRESH OF THE GRIDDED DATABASE...INCLUDING
FIRE WEATHER GRIDS...THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACH...RAIN
CHANCES INCREASES...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THESE
SHOWERS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT
AROUND 50 IN THE TRI-CITY AREAS AS WE WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT DURING THE MORNING...LEAVING A MAINLY
DRY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE DISTURBANCE STILL OVERHEAD...A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED. A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
IF WE DO GET ANY...THIS WOULD ONLY INCREASE INSTABILITY AS THE MID
LEVELS COOL. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST...AND BECOME A BIT
BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE
60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 40S IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. THE
CLIPPER HOWEVER WILL SERVE TO PRODUCE A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS IT IS A SMALL COMPACT SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN
SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LOWER LITCHFIELD). IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL END TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM
THE LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH A
RIDGE AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR.  THIS SURFACE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM THE CUT OFF LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND PACIFIC ENERGY COMING ASHORE ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA ARE FORECAST TO PHASE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE MID AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  IN
FACT...THIS LOW MAY BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE DOWNSTREAM MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE NORTHEAST.  CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
LATEST ENSEMBLES SUGGEST PWAT ANOMALIES CLIMB TOWARD 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH H850 SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES
APPROACHING 4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS IF TRENDS OF UPSTREAM TROUGH POSITION ARE
DEEPER AND SLOWER...THIS COULD RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN /ESPECIALLY INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN/.

BY TUESDAY...SEEMS A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...SOME HINTS OF A WEAK PV ANOMALY WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AS WE WILL KEEP CHC-
SCT POPS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES FURTHER ELONGATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.  THERMAL PROFILES MAY BE COOL ENOUGH ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACK PARK FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS TO MIX WITH SNOW MAINLY
AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

THANK YOU TO SURROUNDING WFOS FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL TEHN INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BETWEEN 06Z
AND 09Z EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR. AFTER 16Z VSBYS WILL
RETURN TO MAINLY VFR...WITH CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MVFR RANGE
UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 18Z FRIDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS THIS EVENING. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...

ANOTHER DRY DAY ON TAP WITH DEWPOINTS ONCE AGAIN HELD TO THE
20S...PERHAPS EVEN HIGH TEENS IN SOME SPOTS. WITH PROJECTED HIGH IN
THE 60S...THIS WILL YIELD RH VALUES DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 20
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MIXING LAYER WILL BE A LOT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY IN
THE 3500-4500 AGL FOOT RANGE (AS OPPOSED TO NEARLY 7000 FEET ON
WEDNESDAY). THEREFORE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING THE WIND TO BE QUITE AS
GUSTY AS YESTERDAY. THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH...WITH
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. AS ALWAYS...THERE COULD BE A FEW ROGUE
HIGHER GUSTS.

TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD GET A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT ESPECIALLY SINCE SOME RAIN IS
LIKELY. UNFORTUNATELY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AROUND OR A
LITTLE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL TURN A BIT BREEZY BY
THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
THE ADIRONDACKS BUT NO RAIN ELSEWHERE. IT WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN A
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH
OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE TENTH AND
A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE FCST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
SYSTEM. THIS RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON OUR HSA OR
STREAMS.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 161757
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
157 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND SUNSHINE...RESULTING IN ANOTHER MILD
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1259 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA WITH JUST SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS
FILTERING THE SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY
SINCE THE CHILLY START...AND ARE NOW IN THE MID 50S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS. FORECAST MAX TEMPS MAY BE ON
THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE. UNLESS CLOUDS THICKEN...SOME VALLEY
LOCATION MAY HIT 70F TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY NEAR LONG ISLAND NY...IS SLOWLY MOVING
OFFSHORE. A LIGHT RETURN SOUTH EASTERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING RAIN LATER
TONIGHT...IS NOW OVER ILLINOIS. RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE
NEAREST RAIN NOW IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. EXPECT CONTINUED FAIR
WEATHER HERE THROUGH SUNSET.

LATEST UPDATE HAS A REFRESH OF THE GRIDDED DATABASE...INCLUDING
FIRE WEATHER GRIDS...THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACH...RAIN
CHANCES INCREASES...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THESE
SHOWERS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT
AROUND 50 IN THE TRI-CITY AREAS AS WE WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT DURING THE MORNING...LEAVING A MAINLY
DRY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE DISTURBANCE STILL OVERHEAD...A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED. A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
IF WE DO GET ANY...THIS WOULD ONLY INCREASE INSTABILITY AS THE MID
LEVELS COOL. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST...AND BECOME A BIT
BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE
60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 40S IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. THE
CLIPPER HOWEVER WILL SERVE TO PRODUCE A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS IT IS A SMALL COMPACT SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN
SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LOWER LITCHFIELD). IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL END TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM
THE LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH A
RIDGE AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR.  THIS SURFACE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM THE CUT OFF LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND PACIFIC ENERGY COMING ASHORE ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA ARE FORECAST TO PHASE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE MID AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  IN
FACT...THIS LOW MAY BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE DOWNSTREAM MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE NORTHEAST.  CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
LATEST ENSEMBLES SUGGEST PWAT ANOMALIES CLIMB TOWARD 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH H850 SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES
APPROACHING 4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS IF TRENDS OF UPSTREAM TROUGH POSITION ARE
DEEPER AND SLOWER...THIS COULD RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN /ESPECIALLY INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN/.

BY TUESDAY...SEEMS A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...SOME HINTS OF A WEAK PV ANOMALY WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AS WE WILL KEEP CHC-
SCT POPS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES FURTHER ELONGATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.  THERMAL PROFILES MAY BE COOL ENOUGH ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACK PARK FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS TO MIX WITH SNOW MAINLY
AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

THANK YOU TO SURROUNDING WFOS FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL TEHN INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BETWEEN 06Z
AND 09Z EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR. AFTER 16Z VSBYS WILL
RETURN TO MAINLY VFR...WITH CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MVFR RANGE
UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 18Z FRIDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS THIS EVENING. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...

ANOTHER DRY DAY ON TAP WITH DEWPOINTS ONCE AGAIN HELD TO THE
20S...PERHAPS EVEN HIGH TEENS IN SOME SPOTS. WITH PROJECTED HIGH IN
THE 60S...THIS WILL YIELD RH VALUES DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 20
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MIXING LAYER WILL BE A LOT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY IN
THE 3500-4500 AGL FOOT RANGE (AS OPPOSED TO NEARLY 7000 FEET ON
WEDNESDAY). THEREFORE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING THE WIND TO BE QUITE AS
GUSTY AS YESTERDAY. THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH...WITH
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. AS ALWAYS...THERE COULD BE A FEW ROGUE
HIGHER GUSTS.

TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD GET A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT ESPECIALLY SINCE SOME RAIN IS
LIKELY. UNFORTUNATELY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AROUND OR A
LITTLE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL TURN A BIT BREEZY BY
THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
THE ADIRONDACKS BUT NO RAIN ELSEWHERE. IT WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN A
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH
OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE TENTH AND
A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE FCST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
SYSTEM. THIS RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON OUR HSA OR
STREAMS.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 161757
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
157 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND SUNSHINE...RESULTING IN ANOTHER MILD
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1259 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA WITH JUST SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS
FILTERING THE SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY
SINCE THE CHILLY START...AND ARE NOW IN THE MID 50S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS. FORECAST MAX TEMPS MAY BE ON
THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE. UNLESS CLOUDS THICKEN...SOME VALLEY
LOCATION MAY HIT 70F TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY NEAR LONG ISLAND NY...IS SLOWLY MOVING
OFFSHORE. A LIGHT RETURN SOUTH EASTERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING RAIN LATER
TONIGHT...IS NOW OVER ILLINOIS. RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE
NEAREST RAIN NOW IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. EXPECT CONTINUED FAIR
WEATHER HERE THROUGH SUNSET.

LATEST UPDATE HAS A REFRESH OF THE GRIDDED DATABASE...INCLUDING
FIRE WEATHER GRIDS...THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACH...RAIN
CHANCES INCREASES...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THESE
SHOWERS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT
AROUND 50 IN THE TRI-CITY AREAS AS WE WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT DURING THE MORNING...LEAVING A MAINLY
DRY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE DISTURBANCE STILL OVERHEAD...A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED. A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
IF WE DO GET ANY...THIS WOULD ONLY INCREASE INSTABILITY AS THE MID
LEVELS COOL. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST...AND BECOME A BIT
BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE
60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 40S IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. THE
CLIPPER HOWEVER WILL SERVE TO PRODUCE A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS IT IS A SMALL COMPACT SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN
SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LOWER LITCHFIELD). IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL END TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM
THE LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH A
RIDGE AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR.  THIS SURFACE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM THE CUT OFF LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND PACIFIC ENERGY COMING ASHORE ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA ARE FORECAST TO PHASE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE MID AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  IN
FACT...THIS LOW MAY BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE DOWNSTREAM MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE NORTHEAST.  CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
LATEST ENSEMBLES SUGGEST PWAT ANOMALIES CLIMB TOWARD 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH H850 SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES
APPROACHING 4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS IF TRENDS OF UPSTREAM TROUGH POSITION ARE
DEEPER AND SLOWER...THIS COULD RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN /ESPECIALLY INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN/.

BY TUESDAY...SEEMS A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...SOME HINTS OF A WEAK PV ANOMALY WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AS WE WILL KEEP CHC-
SCT POPS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES FURTHER ELONGATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.  THERMAL PROFILES MAY BE COOL ENOUGH ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACK PARK FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS TO MIX WITH SNOW MAINLY
AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

THANK YOU TO SURROUNDING WFOS FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL TEHN INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BETWEEN 06Z
AND 09Z EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR. AFTER 16Z VSBYS WILL
RETURN TO MAINLY VFR...WITH CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MVFR RANGE
UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 18Z FRIDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS THIS EVENING. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...

ANOTHER DRY DAY ON TAP WITH DEWPOINTS ONCE AGAIN HELD TO THE
20S...PERHAPS EVEN HIGH TEENS IN SOME SPOTS. WITH PROJECTED HIGH IN
THE 60S...THIS WILL YIELD RH VALUES DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 20
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MIXING LAYER WILL BE A LOT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY IN
THE 3500-4500 AGL FOOT RANGE (AS OPPOSED TO NEARLY 7000 FEET ON
WEDNESDAY). THEREFORE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING THE WIND TO BE QUITE AS
GUSTY AS YESTERDAY. THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH...WITH
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. AS ALWAYS...THERE COULD BE A FEW ROGUE
HIGHER GUSTS.

TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD GET A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT ESPECIALLY SINCE SOME RAIN IS
LIKELY. UNFORTUNATELY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AROUND OR A
LITTLE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL TURN A BIT BREEZY BY
THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
THE ADIRONDACKS BUT NO RAIN ELSEWHERE. IT WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN A
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH
OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE TENTH AND
A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE FCST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
SYSTEM. THIS RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON OUR HSA OR
STREAMS.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 161757
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
157 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND SUNSHINE...RESULTING IN ANOTHER MILD
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1259 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA WITH JUST SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS
FILTERING THE SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY
SINCE THE CHILLY START...AND ARE NOW IN THE MID 50S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS. FORECAST MAX TEMPS MAY BE ON
THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE. UNLESS CLOUDS THICKEN...SOME VALLEY
LOCATION MAY HIT 70F TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY NEAR LONG ISLAND NY...IS SLOWLY MOVING
OFFSHORE. A LIGHT RETURN SOUTH EASTERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING RAIN LATER
TONIGHT...IS NOW OVER ILLINOIS. RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE
NEAREST RAIN NOW IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. EXPECT CONTINUED FAIR
WEATHER HERE THROUGH SUNSET.

LATEST UPDATE HAS A REFRESH OF THE GRIDDED DATABASE...INCLUDING
FIRE WEATHER GRIDS...THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACH...RAIN
CHANCES INCREASES...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THESE
SHOWERS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT
AROUND 50 IN THE TRI-CITY AREAS AS WE WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT DURING THE MORNING...LEAVING A MAINLY
DRY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE DISTURBANCE STILL OVERHEAD...A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED. A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
IF WE DO GET ANY...THIS WOULD ONLY INCREASE INSTABILITY AS THE MID
LEVELS COOL. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST...AND BECOME A BIT
BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE
60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 40S IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. THE
CLIPPER HOWEVER WILL SERVE TO PRODUCE A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS IT IS A SMALL COMPACT SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN
SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LOWER LITCHFIELD). IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL END TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM
THE LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH A
RIDGE AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR.  THIS SURFACE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM THE CUT OFF LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND PACIFIC ENERGY COMING ASHORE ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA ARE FORECAST TO PHASE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE MID AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  IN
FACT...THIS LOW MAY BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE DOWNSTREAM MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE NORTHEAST.  CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
LATEST ENSEMBLES SUGGEST PWAT ANOMALIES CLIMB TOWARD 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH H850 SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES
APPROACHING 4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS IF TRENDS OF UPSTREAM TROUGH POSITION ARE
DEEPER AND SLOWER...THIS COULD RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN /ESPECIALLY INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN/.

BY TUESDAY...SEEMS A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...SOME HINTS OF A WEAK PV ANOMALY WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AS WE WILL KEEP CHC-
SCT POPS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES FURTHER ELONGATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.  THERMAL PROFILES MAY BE COOL ENOUGH ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACK PARK FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS TO MIX WITH SNOW MAINLY
AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

THANK YOU TO SURROUNDING WFOS FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL TEHN INCREASE LATER THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BETWEEN 06Z
AND 09Z EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z MVFR TO
OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR. AFTER 16Z VSBYS WILL
RETURN TO MAINLY VFR...WITH CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MVFR RANGE
UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 18Z FRIDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 TO
18 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS THIS EVENING. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEEDS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...

ANOTHER DRY DAY ON TAP WITH DEWPOINTS ONCE AGAIN HELD TO THE
20S...PERHAPS EVEN HIGH TEENS IN SOME SPOTS. WITH PROJECTED HIGH IN
THE 60S...THIS WILL YIELD RH VALUES DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 20
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MIXING LAYER WILL BE A LOT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY IN
THE 3500-4500 AGL FOOT RANGE (AS OPPOSED TO NEARLY 7000 FEET ON
WEDNESDAY). THEREFORE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING THE WIND TO BE QUITE AS
GUSTY AS YESTERDAY. THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH...WITH
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. AS ALWAYS...THERE COULD BE A FEW ROGUE
HIGHER GUSTS.

TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD GET A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT ESPECIALLY SINCE SOME RAIN IS
LIKELY. UNFORTUNATELY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AROUND OR A
LITTLE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL TURN A BIT BREEZY BY
THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
THE ADIRONDACKS BUT NO RAIN ELSEWHERE. IT WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN A
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH
OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE TENTH AND
A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE FCST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
SYSTEM. THIS RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON OUR HSA OR
STREAMS.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KBTV 161754
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
154 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. IT WILL BE MILDER
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 959 AM EDT THURSDAY...OTHER THAN JUST A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS...PLENTY OF SUN WILL EXIST TODAY. DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN
PLACE...SO TEMPERATURES WARMING QUICKLY THIS MORNING. GOING
FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL WITH ANOTHER DAY OF LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES...BUT LESS WIND TO REDUCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S LOOKS REAL GOOD AND NO
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK
850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CHANCE
OF SHOWERS INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING IN THE MID
LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
DURING SATURDAY...A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM QUEBEC ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF A
FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHEST POPS INDICATED
ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT...WITH LOWER POPS SOUTH AND WEST.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S...WITH
READINGS A FEW DEGREES COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
CONTINUE TO BE TOWARDS A COOLER AND WETTER STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT FEATURING A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WHILE FURTHER
WESTWARD A CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO PHASE
WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST. AS
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY, CLEAR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL, LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE
50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH
OF WEATHER LASTING POSSIBLY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN
CONUS WITH SEVERAL INFLUXES OF GULF MOISTURE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE
PARENT UPPER LOW, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, PWATS
APPROACH 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SOME MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST
925-850MB JET OF 40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER, BUT I`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS AS WE REMAIN UNDER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM
THE FAIRLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S,
AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 18Z THURSDAY. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO
LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 07Z-09Z FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME AREAS
OF MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY-00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE AREA PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND AREAS
OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS RIVERS ARE CRESTING WITHIN THEIR
BANKS AND SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL
RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...WGH
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 161754
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
154 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. IT WILL BE MILDER
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 959 AM EDT THURSDAY...OTHER THAN JUST A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS...PLENTY OF SUN WILL EXIST TODAY. DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN
PLACE...SO TEMPERATURES WARMING QUICKLY THIS MORNING. GOING
FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL WITH ANOTHER DAY OF LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES...BUT LESS WIND TO REDUCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S LOOKS REAL GOOD AND NO
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK
850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CHANCE
OF SHOWERS INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING IN THE MID
LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
DURING SATURDAY...A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM QUEBEC ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF A
FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHEST POPS INDICATED
ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT...WITH LOWER POPS SOUTH AND WEST.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S...WITH
READINGS A FEW DEGREES COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
CONTINUE TO BE TOWARDS A COOLER AND WETTER STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT FEATURING A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WHILE FURTHER
WESTWARD A CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO PHASE
WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST. AS
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY, CLEAR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL, LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE
50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH
OF WEATHER LASTING POSSIBLY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN
CONUS WITH SEVERAL INFLUXES OF GULF MOISTURE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE
PARENT UPPER LOW, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, PWATS
APPROACH 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SOME MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST
925-850MB JET OF 40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER, BUT I`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS AS WE REMAIN UNDER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM
THE FAIRLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S,
AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 18Z THURSDAY. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO
LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 07Z-09Z FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME AREAS
OF MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY-00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE AREA PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND AREAS
OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS RIVERS ARE CRESTING WITHIN THEIR
BANKS AND SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL
RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...WGH
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 161754
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
154 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. IT WILL BE MILDER
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 959 AM EDT THURSDAY...OTHER THAN JUST A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS...PLENTY OF SUN WILL EXIST TODAY. DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN
PLACE...SO TEMPERATURES WARMING QUICKLY THIS MORNING. GOING
FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL WITH ANOTHER DAY OF LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES...BUT LESS WIND TO REDUCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S LOOKS REAL GOOD AND NO
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK
850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CHANCE
OF SHOWERS INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING IN THE MID
LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
DURING SATURDAY...A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM QUEBEC ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF A
FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHEST POPS INDICATED
ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT...WITH LOWER POPS SOUTH AND WEST.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S...WITH
READINGS A FEW DEGREES COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
CONTINUE TO BE TOWARDS A COOLER AND WETTER STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT FEATURING A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WHILE FURTHER
WESTWARD A CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO PHASE
WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST. AS
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY, CLEAR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL, LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE
50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH
OF WEATHER LASTING POSSIBLY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN
CONUS WITH SEVERAL INFLUXES OF GULF MOISTURE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE
PARENT UPPER LOW, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, PWATS
APPROACH 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SOME MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST
925-850MB JET OF 40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER, BUT I`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS AS WE REMAIN UNDER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM
THE FAIRLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S,
AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 18Z THURSDAY. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO
LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 07Z-09Z FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME AREAS
OF MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY-00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE AREA PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND AREAS
OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS RIVERS ARE CRESTING WITHIN THEIR
BANKS AND SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL
RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...WGH
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 161754
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
154 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. IT WILL BE MILDER
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 959 AM EDT THURSDAY...OTHER THAN JUST A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS...PLENTY OF SUN WILL EXIST TODAY. DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN
PLACE...SO TEMPERATURES WARMING QUICKLY THIS MORNING. GOING
FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL WITH ANOTHER DAY OF LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES...BUT LESS WIND TO REDUCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S LOOKS REAL GOOD AND NO
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK
850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CHANCE
OF SHOWERS INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING IN THE MID
LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
DURING SATURDAY...A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM QUEBEC ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF A
FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHEST POPS INDICATED
ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT...WITH LOWER POPS SOUTH AND WEST.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S...WITH
READINGS A FEW DEGREES COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
CONTINUE TO BE TOWARDS A COOLER AND WETTER STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT FEATURING A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WHILE FURTHER
WESTWARD A CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO PHASE
WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST. AS
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY, CLEAR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL, LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE
50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH
OF WEATHER LASTING POSSIBLY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN
CONUS WITH SEVERAL INFLUXES OF GULF MOISTURE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE
PARENT UPPER LOW, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, PWATS
APPROACH 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SOME MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST
925-850MB JET OF 40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER, BUT I`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS AS WE REMAIN UNDER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM
THE FAIRLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S,
AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 18Z THURSDAY. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO
LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 07Z-09Z FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME AREAS
OF MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY-00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AS LOW
PRESSURE AREA PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z MONDAY-00Z WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND AREAS
OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS RIVERS ARE CRESTING WITHIN THEIR
BANKS AND SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL
RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...WGH
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV



000
FXUS61 KALY 161659
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1259 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND SUNSHINE...RESULTING IN ANOTHER MILD
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1259 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA WITH JUST SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS
FILTERING THE SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY
SINCE THE CHILLY START...AND ARE NOW IN THE MID 50S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS. FORECAST MAX TEMPS MAY BE ON
THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE. UNLESS CLOUDS THICKEN...SOME VALLEY
LOCATION MAY HIT 70F TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY NEAR LONG ISLAND NY...IS SLOWLY MOVING
OFFSHORE. A LIGHT RETURN SOUTH EASTERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING RAIN LATER
TONIGHT...IS NOW OVER ILLINOIS. RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE
NEAREST RAIN NOW IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. EXPECT CONTINUED FAIR
WEATHER HERE THROUGH SUNSET.

LATEST UPDATE HAS A REFRESH OF THE GRIDDED DATABASE...INCLUDING
FIRE WEATHER GRIDS...THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACH...RAIN
CHANCES INCREASES...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THESE
SHOWERS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT
AROUND 50 IN THE TRI-CITY AREAS AS WE WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT DURING THE MORNING...LEAVING A MAINLY
DRY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE DISTURBANCE STILL OVERHEAD...A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED. A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
IF WE DO GET ANY...THIS WOULD ONLY INCREASE INSTABILITY AS THE MID
LEVELS COOL. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST...AND BECOME A BIT
BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE
60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 40S IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. THE
CLIPPER HOWEVER WILL SERVE TO PRODUCE A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS IT IS A SMALL COMPACT SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN
SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LOWER LITCHFIELD). IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL END TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM
THE LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH A
RIDGE AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR.  THIS SURFACE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM THE CUT OFF LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND PACIFIC ENERGY COMING ASHORE ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA ARE FORECAST TO PHASE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE MID AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  IN
FACT...THIS LOW MAY BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE DOWNSTREAM MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE NORTHEAST.  CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
LATEST ENSEMBLES SUGGEST PWAT ANOMALIES CLIMB TOWARD 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH H850 SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES
APPROACHING 4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS IF TRENDS OF UPSTREAM TROUGH POSITION ARE
DEEPER AND SLOWER...THIS COULD RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN /ESPECIALLY INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN/.

BY TUESDAY...SEEMS A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...SOME HINTS OF A WEAK PV ANOMALY WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AS WE WILL KEEP CHC-
SCT POPS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES FURTHER ELONGATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.  THERMAL PROFILES MAY BE COOL ENOUGH ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACK PARK FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS TO MIX WITH SNOW MAINLY
AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

THANK YOU TO SURROUNDING WFOS FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY. CHANCE
FOR MVFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT WITH SHOWER POTENTIAL ON THE
INCREASE.

THERE WILL BE FEW TO SCT CI/CS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. LIGHT OR
CALM WIND IN THE EARLY MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY 5-10KTS BY
LATE MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL BECOME GUSTY
WITH THOSE GUSTS UP TO 20KTS...SO JUST A LITTLE LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY.

VFR CIGS WILL WORK INTO THE TAFS THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEN THE CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS WILL EXIST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...

ANOTHER DRY DAY ON TAP WITH DEWPOINTS ONCE AGAIN HELD TO THE
20S...PERHAPS EVEN HIGH TEENS IN SOME SPOTS. WITH PROJECTED HIGH IN
THE 60S...THIS WILL YIELD RH VALUES DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 20
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MIXING LAYER WILL BE A LOT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY IN
THE 3500-4500 AGL FOOT RANGE (AS OPPOSED TO NEARLY 7000 FEET ON
WEDNESDAY). THEREFORE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING THE WIND TO BE QUITE AS
GUSTY AS YESTERDAY. THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH...WITH
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. AS ALWAYS...THERE COULD BE A FEW ROGUE
HIGHER GUSTS.

TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD GET A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT ESPECIALLY SINCE SOME RAIN IS
LIKELY. UNFORTUNATELY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AROUND OR A
LITTLE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL TURN A BIT BREEZY BY
THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
THE ADIRONDACKS BUT NO RAIN ELSEWHERE. IT WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN A
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH
OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE TENTH AND
A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE FCST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
SYSTEM. THIS RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON OUR HSA OR
STREAMS.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 161659
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1259 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND SUNSHINE...RESULTING IN ANOTHER MILD
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1259 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA WITH JUST SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS
FILTERING THE SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY
SINCE THE CHILLY START...AND ARE NOW IN THE MID 50S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS. FORECAST MAX TEMPS MAY BE ON
THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE. UNLESS CLOUDS THICKEN...SOME VALLEY
LOCATION MAY HIT 70F TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY NEAR LONG ISLAND NY...IS SLOWLY MOVING
OFFSHORE. A LIGHT RETURN SOUTH EASTERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING RAIN LATER
TONIGHT...IS NOW OVER ILLINOIS. RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE
NEAREST RAIN NOW IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. EXPECT CONTINUED FAIR
WEATHER HERE THROUGH SUNSET.

LATEST UPDATE HAS A REFRESH OF THE GRIDDED DATABASE...INCLUDING
FIRE WEATHER GRIDS...THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACH...RAIN
CHANCES INCREASES...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THESE
SHOWERS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT
AROUND 50 IN THE TRI-CITY AREAS AS WE WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT DURING THE MORNING...LEAVING A MAINLY
DRY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE DISTURBANCE STILL OVERHEAD...A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED. A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
IF WE DO GET ANY...THIS WOULD ONLY INCREASE INSTABILITY AS THE MID
LEVELS COOL. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST...AND BECOME A BIT
BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE
60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 40S IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. THE
CLIPPER HOWEVER WILL SERVE TO PRODUCE A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS IT IS A SMALL COMPACT SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN
SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LOWER LITCHFIELD). IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL END TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM
THE LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH A
RIDGE AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR.  THIS SURFACE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM THE CUT OFF LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND PACIFIC ENERGY COMING ASHORE ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA ARE FORECAST TO PHASE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE MID AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  IN
FACT...THIS LOW MAY BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE DOWNSTREAM MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE NORTHEAST.  CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
LATEST ENSEMBLES SUGGEST PWAT ANOMALIES CLIMB TOWARD 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH H850 SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES
APPROACHING 4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS IF TRENDS OF UPSTREAM TROUGH POSITION ARE
DEEPER AND SLOWER...THIS COULD RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN /ESPECIALLY INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN/.

BY TUESDAY...SEEMS A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...SOME HINTS OF A WEAK PV ANOMALY WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AS WE WILL KEEP CHC-
SCT POPS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES FURTHER ELONGATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.  THERMAL PROFILES MAY BE COOL ENOUGH ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACK PARK FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS TO MIX WITH SNOW MAINLY
AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

THANK YOU TO SURROUNDING WFOS FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY. CHANCE
FOR MVFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT WITH SHOWER POTENTIAL ON THE
INCREASE.

THERE WILL BE FEW TO SCT CI/CS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. LIGHT OR
CALM WIND IN THE EARLY MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY 5-10KTS BY
LATE MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL BECOME GUSTY
WITH THOSE GUSTS UP TO 20KTS...SO JUST A LITTLE LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY.

VFR CIGS WILL WORK INTO THE TAFS THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEN THE CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS WILL EXIST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...

ANOTHER DRY DAY ON TAP WITH DEWPOINTS ONCE AGAIN HELD TO THE
20S...PERHAPS EVEN HIGH TEENS IN SOME SPOTS. WITH PROJECTED HIGH IN
THE 60S...THIS WILL YIELD RH VALUES DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 20
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MIXING LAYER WILL BE A LOT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY IN
THE 3500-4500 AGL FOOT RANGE (AS OPPOSED TO NEARLY 7000 FEET ON
WEDNESDAY). THEREFORE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING THE WIND TO BE QUITE AS
GUSTY AS YESTERDAY. THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH...WITH
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. AS ALWAYS...THERE COULD BE A FEW ROGUE
HIGHER GUSTS.

TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD GET A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT ESPECIALLY SINCE SOME RAIN IS
LIKELY. UNFORTUNATELY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AROUND OR A
LITTLE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL TURN A BIT BREEZY BY
THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
THE ADIRONDACKS BUT NO RAIN ELSEWHERE. IT WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN A
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH
OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE TENTH AND
A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE FCST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
SYSTEM. THIS RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON OUR HSA OR
STREAMS.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 161659
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1259 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND SUNSHINE...RESULTING IN ANOTHER MILD
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1259 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA WITH JUST SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS
FILTERING THE SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY
SINCE THE CHILLY START...AND ARE NOW IN THE MID 50S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS. FORECAST MAX TEMPS MAY BE ON
THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE. UNLESS CLOUDS THICKEN...SOME VALLEY
LOCATION MAY HIT 70F TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY NEAR LONG ISLAND NY...IS SLOWLY MOVING
OFFSHORE. A LIGHT RETURN SOUTH EASTERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING RAIN LATER
TONIGHT...IS NOW OVER ILLINOIS. RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE
NEAREST RAIN NOW IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. EXPECT CONTINUED FAIR
WEATHER HERE THROUGH SUNSET.

LATEST UPDATE HAS A REFRESH OF THE GRIDDED DATABASE...INCLUDING
FIRE WEATHER GRIDS...THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACH...RAIN
CHANCES INCREASES...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THESE
SHOWERS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT
AROUND 50 IN THE TRI-CITY AREAS AS WE WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT DURING THE MORNING...LEAVING A MAINLY
DRY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE DISTURBANCE STILL OVERHEAD...A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED. A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
IF WE DO GET ANY...THIS WOULD ONLY INCREASE INSTABILITY AS THE MID
LEVELS COOL. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST...AND BECOME A BIT
BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE
60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 40S IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. THE
CLIPPER HOWEVER WILL SERVE TO PRODUCE A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS IT IS A SMALL COMPACT SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN
SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LOWER LITCHFIELD). IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL END TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM
THE LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH A
RIDGE AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR.  THIS SURFACE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM THE CUT OFF LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND PACIFIC ENERGY COMING ASHORE ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA ARE FORECAST TO PHASE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE MID AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  IN
FACT...THIS LOW MAY BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE DOWNSTREAM MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE NORTHEAST.  CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
LATEST ENSEMBLES SUGGEST PWAT ANOMALIES CLIMB TOWARD 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH H850 SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES
APPROACHING 4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS IF TRENDS OF UPSTREAM TROUGH POSITION ARE
DEEPER AND SLOWER...THIS COULD RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN /ESPECIALLY INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN/.

BY TUESDAY...SEEMS A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...SOME HINTS OF A WEAK PV ANOMALY WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AS WE WILL KEEP CHC-
SCT POPS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES FURTHER ELONGATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.  THERMAL PROFILES MAY BE COOL ENOUGH ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACK PARK FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS TO MIX WITH SNOW MAINLY
AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

THANK YOU TO SURROUNDING WFOS FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY. CHANCE
FOR MVFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT WITH SHOWER POTENTIAL ON THE
INCREASE.

THERE WILL BE FEW TO SCT CI/CS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. LIGHT OR
CALM WIND IN THE EARLY MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY 5-10KTS BY
LATE MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL BECOME GUSTY
WITH THOSE GUSTS UP TO 20KTS...SO JUST A LITTLE LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY.

VFR CIGS WILL WORK INTO THE TAFS THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEN THE CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS WILL EXIST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...

ANOTHER DRY DAY ON TAP WITH DEWPOINTS ONCE AGAIN HELD TO THE
20S...PERHAPS EVEN HIGH TEENS IN SOME SPOTS. WITH PROJECTED HIGH IN
THE 60S...THIS WILL YIELD RH VALUES DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 20
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MIXING LAYER WILL BE A LOT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY IN
THE 3500-4500 AGL FOOT RANGE (AS OPPOSED TO NEARLY 7000 FEET ON
WEDNESDAY). THEREFORE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING THE WIND TO BE QUITE AS
GUSTY AS YESTERDAY. THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH...WITH
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. AS ALWAYS...THERE COULD BE A FEW ROGUE
HIGHER GUSTS.

TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD GET A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT ESPECIALLY SINCE SOME RAIN IS
LIKELY. UNFORTUNATELY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AROUND OR A
LITTLE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL TURN A BIT BREEZY BY
THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
THE ADIRONDACKS BUT NO RAIN ELSEWHERE. IT WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN A
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH
OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE TENTH AND
A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE FCST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
SYSTEM. THIS RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON OUR HSA OR
STREAMS.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA



000
FXUS61 KALY 161659
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1259 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND SUNSHINE...RESULTING IN ANOTHER MILD
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT. THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1259 PM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA WITH JUST SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS
FILTERING THE SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY
SINCE THE CHILLY START...AND ARE NOW IN THE MID 50S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO MID 60S IN THE VALLEYS. FORECAST MAX TEMPS MAY BE ON
THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE. UNLESS CLOUDS THICKEN...SOME VALLEY
LOCATION MAY HIT 70F TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY NEAR LONG ISLAND NY...IS SLOWLY MOVING
OFFSHORE. A LIGHT RETURN SOUTH EASTERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING RAIN LATER
TONIGHT...IS NOW OVER ILLINOIS. RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE
NEAREST RAIN NOW IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. EXPECT CONTINUED FAIR
WEATHER HERE THROUGH SUNSET.

LATEST UPDATE HAS A REFRESH OF THE GRIDDED DATABASE...INCLUDING
FIRE WEATHER GRIDS...THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACH...RAIN
CHANCES INCREASES...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THESE
SHOWERS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT
AROUND 50 IN THE TRI-CITY AREAS AS WE WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT DURING THE MORNING...LEAVING A MAINLY
DRY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE DISTURBANCE STILL OVERHEAD...A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED. A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
IF WE DO GET ANY...THIS WOULD ONLY INCREASE INSTABILITY AS THE MID
LEVELS COOL. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST...AND BECOME A BIT
BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE
60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 40S IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. THE
CLIPPER HOWEVER WILL SERVE TO PRODUCE A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS IT IS A SMALL COMPACT SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN
SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LOWER LITCHFIELD). IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL END TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM
THE LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH A
RIDGE AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR.  THIS SURFACE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM THE CUT OFF LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND PACIFIC ENERGY COMING ASHORE ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA ARE FORECAST TO PHASE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE MID AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  IN
FACT...THIS LOW MAY BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE DOWNSTREAM MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE NORTHEAST.  CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
LATEST ENSEMBLES SUGGEST PWAT ANOMALIES CLIMB TOWARD 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH H850 SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES
APPROACHING 4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS IF TRENDS OF UPSTREAM TROUGH POSITION ARE
DEEPER AND SLOWER...THIS COULD RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN /ESPECIALLY INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN/.

BY TUESDAY...SEEMS A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...SOME HINTS OF A WEAK PV ANOMALY WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AS WE WILL KEEP CHC-
SCT POPS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES FURTHER ELONGATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.  THERMAL PROFILES MAY BE COOL ENOUGH ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACK PARK FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS TO MIX WITH SNOW MAINLY
AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

THANK YOU TO SURROUNDING WFOS FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY. CHANCE
FOR MVFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT WITH SHOWER POTENTIAL ON THE
INCREASE.

THERE WILL BE FEW TO SCT CI/CS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. LIGHT OR
CALM WIND IN THE EARLY MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY 5-10KTS BY
LATE MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL BECOME GUSTY
WITH THOSE GUSTS UP TO 20KTS...SO JUST A LITTLE LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY.

VFR CIGS WILL WORK INTO THE TAFS THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEN THE CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS WILL EXIST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...

ANOTHER DRY DAY ON TAP WITH DEWPOINTS ONCE AGAIN HELD TO THE
20S...PERHAPS EVEN HIGH TEENS IN SOME SPOTS. WITH PROJECTED HIGH IN
THE 60S...THIS WILL YIELD RH VALUES DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 20
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MIXING LAYER WILL BE A LOT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY IN
THE 3500-4500 AGL FOOT RANGE (AS OPPOSED TO NEARLY 7000 FEET ON
WEDNESDAY). THEREFORE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING THE WIND TO BE QUITE AS
GUSTY AS YESTERDAY. THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH...WITH
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. AS ALWAYS...THERE COULD BE A FEW ROGUE
HIGHER GUSTS.

TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD GET A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT ESPECIALLY SINCE SOME RAIN IS
LIKELY. UNFORTUNATELY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AROUND OR A
LITTLE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL TURN A BIT BREEZY BY
THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
THE ADIRONDACKS BUT NO RAIN ELSEWHERE. IT WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN A
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH
OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE TENTH AND
A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE FCST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
SYSTEM. THIS RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON OUR HSA OR
STREAMS.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KALY 161409
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1009 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL BRING A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE COMBINING WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE WHICH WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER MILD
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A
LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT...TEMPS RISING QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION UNDER
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY THIS
AFTERNOON...SENDING TEMPS INTO THE 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
MOST PLACES. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH...BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS
YESTERDAY AS THE MIXING HEIGHT SHOULD ONLY BE 4KFT -
4.5KFT...CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.

THERE WILL BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE TODAY...AND
THE CLOUDS WILL TEND TO THICKEN BY LATE DAY.

HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY AND MAX TEMP
GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACH...RAIN
CHANCES INCREASES...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THESE
SHOWERS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT
AROUND 50 IN THE TRI-CITY AREAS AS WE WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT DURING THE MORNING...LEAVING A MAINLY
DRY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE DISTURBANCE STILL OVERHEAD...A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED. A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
IF WE DO GET ANY...THIS WOULD ONLY INCREASE INSTABILITY AS THE MID
LEVELS COOL. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST...AND BECOME A BIT
BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE
60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 40S IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. THE
CLIPPER HOWEVER WILL SERVE TO PRODUCE A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS IT IS A SMALL COMPACT SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN
SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LOWER LITCHFIELD). IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL END TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM
THE LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH A
RIDGE AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR.  THIS SURFACE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM THE CUT OFF LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND PACIFIC ENERGY COMING ASHORE ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA ARE FORECAST TO PHASE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE MID AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  IN
FACT...THIS LOW MAY BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE DOWNSTREAM MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE NORTHEAST.  CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
LATEST ENSEMBLES SUGGEST PWAT ANOMALIES CLIMB TOWARD 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH H850 SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES
APPROACHING 4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS IF TRENDS OF UPSTREAM TROUGH POSITION ARE
DEEPER AND SLOWER...THIS COULD RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN /ESPECIALLY INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN/.

BY TUESDAY...SEEMS A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...SOME HINTS OF A WEAK PV ANOMALY WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AS WE WILL KEEP CHC-
SCT POPS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES FURTHER ELONGATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.  THERMAL PROFILES MAY BE COOL ENOUGH ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACK PARK FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS TO MIX WITH SNOW MAINLY
AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

THANK YOU TO SURROUNDING WFOS FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY. CHANCE
FOR MVFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT WITH SHOWER POTENTIAL ON THE
INCREASE.

THERE WILL BE FEW TO SCT CI/CS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. LIGHT OR
CALM WIND IN THE EARLY MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY 5-10KTS BY
LATE MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL BECOME GUSTY
WITH THOSE GUSTS UP TO 20KTS...SO JUST A LITTLE LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY.

VFR CIGS WILL WORK INTO THE TAFS THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEN THE CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS WILL EXIST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     LOW RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...

ANOTHER DRY DAY ON TAP WITH DEWPOINTS ONCE AGAIN HELD TO THE
20S...PERHAPS EVEN HIGH TEENS IN SOME SPOTS. WITH PROJECTED HIGH IN
THE 60S...THIS WILL YIELD RH VALUES DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 20
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MIXING LAYER WILL BE A LOT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY IN
THE 3500-4500 AGL FOOT RANGE (AS OPPOSED TO NEARLY 7000 FEET ON
WEDNESDAY). THEREFORE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING THE WIND TO BE QUITE AS
GUSTY AS YESTERDAY. THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH...WITH
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. AS ALWAYS...THERE COULD BE A FEW ROGUE
HIGHER GUSTS.

TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD GET A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT ESPECIALLY SINCE SOME RAIN IS
LIKELY. UNFORTUNATELY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AROUND OR A
LITTLE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL TURN A BIT BREEZY BY
THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
THE ADIRONDACKS BUT NO RAIN ELSEWHERE. IT WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN A
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH
OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE TENTH AND
A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE FCST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
SYSTEM. THIS RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON OUR HSA OR
STREAMS.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA




000
FXUS61 KBTV 161359
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
959 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. IT WILL BE MILDER
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 959 AM EDT THURSDAY...OTHER THAN JUST A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS...PLENTY OF SUN WILL EXIST TODAY. DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN
PLACE...SO TEMPERATURES WARMING QUICKLY THIS MORNING. GOING
FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL WITH ANOTHER DAY OF LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES...BUT LESS WIND TO REDUCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S LOOKS REAL GOOD AND NO
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK
850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CHANCE
OF SHOWERS INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING IN THE MID
LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
DURING SATURDAY...A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM QUEBEC ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF A
FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHEST POPS INDICATED
ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT...WITH LOWER POPS SOUTH AND WEST.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S...WITH
READINGS A FEW DEGREES COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
CONTINUE TO BE TOWARDS A COOLER AND WETTER STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT FEATURING A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WHILE FURTHER
WESTWARD A CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO PHASE
WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST. AS
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY, CLEAR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL, LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE
50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH
OF WEATHER LASTING POSSIBLY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN
CONUS WITH SEVERAL INFLUXES OF GULF MOISTURE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE
PARENT UPPER LOW, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, PWATS
APPROACH 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SOME MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST
925-850MB JET OF 40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER, BUT I`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS AS WE REMAIN UNDER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM
THE FAIRLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S,
AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE WINDS ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY, GENERALLY 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 16-18 KNOTS. AFTER 06Z, CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
MVFR AS RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -SHRA ACTIVITY 06Z-18Z FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
MID-LEVEL TROUGH...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN 12Z SAT-00Z SUN.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG P-GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN
GUSTY S-SW WINDS...WITH SURFACE WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS
OF 25 KTS AND LLWS DURING MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS RIVERS ARE CRESTING WITHIN THEIR
BANKS AND SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL
RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 161359
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
959 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. IT WILL BE MILDER
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 959 AM EDT THURSDAY...OTHER THAN JUST A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS...PLENTY OF SUN WILL EXIST TODAY. DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN
PLACE...SO TEMPERATURES WARMING QUICKLY THIS MORNING. GOING
FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL WITH ANOTHER DAY OF LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES...BUT LESS WIND TO REDUCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S LOOKS REAL GOOD AND NO
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK
850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CHANCE
OF SHOWERS INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING IN THE MID
LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
DURING SATURDAY...A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM QUEBEC ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF A
FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHEST POPS INDICATED
ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT...WITH LOWER POPS SOUTH AND WEST.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S...WITH
READINGS A FEW DEGREES COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
CONTINUE TO BE TOWARDS A COOLER AND WETTER STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT FEATURING A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WHILE FURTHER
WESTWARD A CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO PHASE
WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST. AS
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY, CLEAR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL, LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE
50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH
OF WEATHER LASTING POSSIBLY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN
CONUS WITH SEVERAL INFLUXES OF GULF MOISTURE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE
PARENT UPPER LOW, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, PWATS
APPROACH 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SOME MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST
925-850MB JET OF 40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER, BUT I`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS AS WE REMAIN UNDER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM
THE FAIRLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S,
AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE WINDS ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY, GENERALLY 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 16-18 KNOTS. AFTER 06Z, CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
MVFR AS RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -SHRA ACTIVITY 06Z-18Z FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
MID-LEVEL TROUGH...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN 12Z SAT-00Z SUN.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG P-GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN
GUSTY S-SW WINDS...WITH SURFACE WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS
OF 25 KTS AND LLWS DURING MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS RIVERS ARE CRESTING WITHIN THEIR
BANKS AND SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL
RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 161359
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
959 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. IT WILL BE MILDER
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 959 AM EDT THURSDAY...OTHER THAN JUST A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS...PLENTY OF SUN WILL EXIST TODAY. DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN
PLACE...SO TEMPERATURES WARMING QUICKLY THIS MORNING. GOING
FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL WITH ANOTHER DAY OF LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES...BUT LESS WIND TO REDUCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S LOOKS REAL GOOD AND NO
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK
850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CHANCE
OF SHOWERS INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING IN THE MID
LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
DURING SATURDAY...A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM QUEBEC ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF A
FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHEST POPS INDICATED
ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT...WITH LOWER POPS SOUTH AND WEST.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S...WITH
READINGS A FEW DEGREES COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
CONTINUE TO BE TOWARDS A COOLER AND WETTER STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT FEATURING A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WHILE FURTHER
WESTWARD A CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO PHASE
WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST. AS
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY, CLEAR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL, LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE
50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH
OF WEATHER LASTING POSSIBLY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN
CONUS WITH SEVERAL INFLUXES OF GULF MOISTURE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE
PARENT UPPER LOW, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, PWATS
APPROACH 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SOME MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST
925-850MB JET OF 40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER, BUT I`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS AS WE REMAIN UNDER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM
THE FAIRLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S,
AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE WINDS ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY, GENERALLY 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 16-18 KNOTS. AFTER 06Z, CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
MVFR AS RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -SHRA ACTIVITY 06Z-18Z FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
MID-LEVEL TROUGH...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN 12Z SAT-00Z SUN.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG P-GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN
GUSTY S-SW WINDS...WITH SURFACE WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS
OF 25 KTS AND LLWS DURING MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS RIVERS ARE CRESTING WITHIN THEIR
BANKS AND SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL
RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 161359
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
959 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. IT WILL BE MILDER
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 959 AM EDT THURSDAY...OTHER THAN JUST A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS...PLENTY OF SUN WILL EXIST TODAY. DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN
PLACE...SO TEMPERATURES WARMING QUICKLY THIS MORNING. GOING
FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL WITH ANOTHER DAY OF LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES...BUT LESS WIND TO REDUCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S LOOKS REAL GOOD AND NO
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK
850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CHANCE
OF SHOWERS INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING IN THE MID
LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
DURING SATURDAY...A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM QUEBEC ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF A
FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHEST POPS INDICATED
ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT...WITH LOWER POPS SOUTH AND WEST.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S...WITH
READINGS A FEW DEGREES COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
CONTINUE TO BE TOWARDS A COOLER AND WETTER STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT FEATURING A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WHILE FURTHER
WESTWARD A CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO PHASE
WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST. AS
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY, CLEAR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL, LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE
50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH
OF WEATHER LASTING POSSIBLY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN
CONUS WITH SEVERAL INFLUXES OF GULF MOISTURE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE
PARENT UPPER LOW, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, PWATS
APPROACH 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SOME MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST
925-850MB JET OF 40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER, BUT I`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS AS WE REMAIN UNDER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM
THE FAIRLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S,
AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE WINDS ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY, GENERALLY 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 16-18 KNOTS. AFTER 06Z, CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
MVFR AS RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -SHRA ACTIVITY 06Z-18Z FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
MID-LEVEL TROUGH...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN 12Z SAT-00Z SUN.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG P-GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN
GUSTY S-SW WINDS...WITH SURFACE WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS
OF 25 KTS AND LLWS DURING MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS RIVERS ARE CRESTING WITHIN THEIR
BANKS AND SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL
RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 161125
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
725 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. IT WILL BE MILDER
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 656 AM EDT THURSDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY TODAY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH...WHILE MILDER AIR STREAMS
INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING
+10C. SO AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND
INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER 60S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WITH
JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK
850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CHANCE
OF SHOWERS INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING IN THE MID
LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
DURING SATURDAY...A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM QUEBEC ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF A
FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHEST POPS INDICATED
ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT...WITH LOWER POPS SOUTH AND WEST.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S...WITH
READINGS A FEW DEGREES COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
CONTINUE TO BE TOWARDS A COOLER AND WETTER STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT FEATURING A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WHILE FURTHER
WESTWARD A CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO PHASE
WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST. AS
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY, CLEAR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL, LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE
50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH
OF WEATHER LASTING POSSIBLY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN
CONUS WITH SEVERAL INFLUXES OF GULF MOISTURE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE
PARENT UPPER LOW, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, PWATS
APPROACH 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SOME MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST
925-850MB JET OF 40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER, BUT I`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS AS WE REMAIN UNDER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM
THE FAIRLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S,
AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE WINDS ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY, GENERALLY 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 16-18 KNOTS. AFTER 06Z, CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
MVFR AS RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -SHRA ACTIVITY 06Z-18Z FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
MID-LEVEL TROUGH...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN 12Z SAT-00Z SUN.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG P-GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN
GUSTY S-SW WINDS...WITH SURFACE WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS
OF 25 KTS AND LLWS DURING MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS RIVERS ARE CRESTING WITHIN THEIR
BANKS AND SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL
RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 161125
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
725 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. IT WILL BE MILDER
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 656 AM EDT THURSDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY TODAY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH...WHILE MILDER AIR STREAMS
INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING
+10C. SO AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND
INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER 60S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WITH
JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK
850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CHANCE
OF SHOWERS INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING IN THE MID
LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
DURING SATURDAY...A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM QUEBEC ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF A
FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHEST POPS INDICATED
ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT...WITH LOWER POPS SOUTH AND WEST.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S...WITH
READINGS A FEW DEGREES COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
CONTINUE TO BE TOWARDS A COOLER AND WETTER STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT FEATURING A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WHILE FURTHER
WESTWARD A CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO PHASE
WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST. AS
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY, CLEAR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL, LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE
50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH
OF WEATHER LASTING POSSIBLY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN
CONUS WITH SEVERAL INFLUXES OF GULF MOISTURE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE
PARENT UPPER LOW, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, PWATS
APPROACH 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SOME MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST
925-850MB JET OF 40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER, BUT I`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS AS WE REMAIN UNDER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM
THE FAIRLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S,
AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE WINDS ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY, GENERALLY 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 16-18 KNOTS. AFTER 06Z, CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
MVFR AS RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -SHRA ACTIVITY 06Z-18Z FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
MID-LEVEL TROUGH...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN 12Z SAT-00Z SUN.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG P-GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN
GUSTY S-SW WINDS...WITH SURFACE WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS
OF 25 KTS AND LLWS DURING MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS RIVERS ARE CRESTING WITHIN THEIR
BANKS AND SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL
RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 161125
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
725 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. IT WILL BE MILDER
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 656 AM EDT THURSDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY TODAY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH...WHILE MILDER AIR STREAMS
INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING
+10C. SO AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND
INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER 60S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WITH
JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK
850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CHANCE
OF SHOWERS INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING IN THE MID
LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
DURING SATURDAY...A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM QUEBEC ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF A
FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHEST POPS INDICATED
ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT...WITH LOWER POPS SOUTH AND WEST.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S...WITH
READINGS A FEW DEGREES COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
CONTINUE TO BE TOWARDS A COOLER AND WETTER STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT FEATURING A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WHILE FURTHER
WESTWARD A CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO PHASE
WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST. AS
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY, CLEAR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL, LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE
50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH
OF WEATHER LASTING POSSIBLY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN
CONUS WITH SEVERAL INFLUXES OF GULF MOISTURE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE
PARENT UPPER LOW, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, PWATS
APPROACH 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SOME MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST
925-850MB JET OF 40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER, BUT I`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS AS WE REMAIN UNDER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM
THE FAIRLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S,
AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE WINDS ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY, GENERALLY 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 16-18 KNOTS. AFTER 06Z, CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
MVFR AS RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -SHRA ACTIVITY 06Z-18Z FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
MID-LEVEL TROUGH...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN 12Z SAT-00Z SUN.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG P-GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN
GUSTY S-SW WINDS...WITH SURFACE WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS
OF 25 KTS AND LLWS DURING MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS RIVERS ARE CRESTING WITHIN THEIR
BANKS AND SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL
RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 161059
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
659 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. IT WILL BE MILDER
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 656 AM EDT THURSDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY TODAY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH...WHILE MILDER AIR STREAMS
INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING
+10C. SO AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND
INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER 60S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WITH
JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK
850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CHANCE
OF SHOWERS INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING IN THE MID
LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
DURING SATURDAY...A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM QUEBEC ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF A
FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHEST POPS INDICATED
ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT...WITH LOWER POPS SOUTH AND WEST.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S...WITH
READINGS A FEW DEGREES COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
CONTINUE TO BE TOWARDS A COOLER AND WETTER STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT FEATURING A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WHILE FURTHER
WESTWARD A CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO PHASE
WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST. AS
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY, CLEAR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL, LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE
50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH
OF WEATHER LASTING POSSIBLY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN
CONUS WITH SEVERAL INFLUXES OF GULF MOISTURE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE
PARENT UPPER LOW, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, PWATS
APPROACH 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SOME MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST
925-850MB JET OF 40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER, BUT I`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS AS WE REMAIN UNDER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM
THE FAIRLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S,
AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE WINDS ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY, GENERALLY 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 17 KNOTS OR SO, MAINLY AT KBTV.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -SHRA ACTIVITY 06Z-18Z FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
MID-LEVEL TROUGH...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN 12Z SAT-00Z SUN.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG P-GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN
GUSTY S-SW WINDS...WITH SURFACE WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS
OF 25 KTS AND LLWS DURING MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS RIVERS ARE CRESTING WITHIN THEIR
BANKS AND SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL
RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 161059
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
659 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. IT WILL BE MILDER
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 656 AM EDT THURSDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY TODAY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH...WHILE MILDER AIR STREAMS
INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING
+10C. SO AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND
INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER 60S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WITH
JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK
850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CHANCE
OF SHOWERS INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING IN THE MID
LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
DURING SATURDAY...A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM QUEBEC ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF A
FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHEST POPS INDICATED
ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT...WITH LOWER POPS SOUTH AND WEST.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S...WITH
READINGS A FEW DEGREES COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
CONTINUE TO BE TOWARDS A COOLER AND WETTER STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT FEATURING A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WHILE FURTHER
WESTWARD A CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO PHASE
WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST. AS
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY, CLEAR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL, LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE
50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH
OF WEATHER LASTING POSSIBLY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN
CONUS WITH SEVERAL INFLUXES OF GULF MOISTURE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE
PARENT UPPER LOW, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, PWATS
APPROACH 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SOME MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST
925-850MB JET OF 40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER, BUT I`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS AS WE REMAIN UNDER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM
THE FAIRLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S,
AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE WINDS ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY, GENERALLY 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 17 KNOTS OR SO, MAINLY AT KBTV.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -SHRA ACTIVITY 06Z-18Z FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
MID-LEVEL TROUGH...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN 12Z SAT-00Z SUN.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG P-GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN
GUSTY S-SW WINDS...WITH SURFACE WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS
OF 25 KTS AND LLWS DURING MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS RIVERS ARE CRESTING WITHIN THEIR
BANKS AND SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL
RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 161059
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
659 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. IT WILL BE MILDER
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 656 AM EDT THURSDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY TODAY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH...WHILE MILDER AIR STREAMS
INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING
+10C. SO AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND
INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER 60S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WITH
JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK
850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CHANCE
OF SHOWERS INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING IN THE MID
LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
DURING SATURDAY...A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM QUEBEC ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF A
FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHEST POPS INDICATED
ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT...WITH LOWER POPS SOUTH AND WEST.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S...WITH
READINGS A FEW DEGREES COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
CONTINUE TO BE TOWARDS A COOLER AND WETTER STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT FEATURING A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WHILE FURTHER
WESTWARD A CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO PHASE
WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST. AS
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY, CLEAR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL, LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE
50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH
OF WEATHER LASTING POSSIBLY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN
CONUS WITH SEVERAL INFLUXES OF GULF MOISTURE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE
PARENT UPPER LOW, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, PWATS
APPROACH 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SOME MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST
925-850MB JET OF 40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER, BUT I`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS AS WE REMAIN UNDER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM
THE FAIRLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S,
AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE WINDS ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY, GENERALLY 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 17 KNOTS OR SO, MAINLY AT KBTV.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -SHRA ACTIVITY 06Z-18Z FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
MID-LEVEL TROUGH...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN 12Z SAT-00Z SUN.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG P-GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN
GUSTY S-SW WINDS...WITH SURFACE WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS
OF 25 KTS AND LLWS DURING MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS RIVERS ARE CRESTING WITHIN THEIR
BANKS AND SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL
RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 161059
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
659 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. IT WILL BE MILDER
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 656 AM EDT THURSDAY...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY TODAY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH...WHILE MILDER AIR STREAMS
INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING
+10C. SO AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND
INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER 60S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WITH
JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK
850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CHANCE
OF SHOWERS INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING IN THE MID
LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
DURING SATURDAY...A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM QUEBEC ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF A
FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHEST POPS INDICATED
ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT...WITH LOWER POPS SOUTH AND WEST.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S...WITH
READINGS A FEW DEGREES COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS FRIDAY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EDT THURSDAY...TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
CONTINUE TO BE TOWARDS A COOLER AND WETTER STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT FEATURING A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WHILE FURTHER
WESTWARD A CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO PHASE
WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST. AS
THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY, CLEAR/DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL, LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE
50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PRETTY UNSETTLED STRETCH
OF WEATHER LASTING POSSIBLY THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN
CONUS WITH SEVERAL INFLUXES OF GULF MOISTURE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE REGION. BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL COMES EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE
PARENT UPPER LOW, AND DRAGS WARM AND COLD FRONT BOUNDARIES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, PWATS
APPROACH 1" SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE RAINFALL
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME HYDRO ISSUES AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM DEEP
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION, THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SOME MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREENS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A MODEST
925-850MB JET OF 40-50KTS TRAVERSES THE AREA.

CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE DRIER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS A MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER, BUT I`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS AS WE REMAIN UNDER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM
THE FAIRLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. TEMPS
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S,
AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE WINDS ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY, GENERALLY 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 17 KNOTS OR SO, MAINLY AT KBTV.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -SHRA ACTIVITY 06Z-18Z FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
MID-LEVEL TROUGH...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN 12Z SAT-00Z SUN.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL
MVFR/IFR RAINFALL. MODERATELY STRONG P-GRADIENT MAY ALSO RESULT IN
GUSTY S-SW WINDS...WITH SURFACE WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS
OF 25 KTS AND LLWS DURING MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SNOWMELT CAUSED BY VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL HAVE
CAUSED SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ACROSS MANY OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIVERS. A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BARTON RIVER AT
COVENTRY...WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS RIVERS ARE CRESTING WITHIN THEIR
BANKS AND SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY ADDITIONAL
RIVER FLOOD THREAT AS SNOWMELT CONTINUES FROM THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV



000
FXUS61 KALY 161020
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
620 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL BRING A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE COMBINING WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE WHICH WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER MILD
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A
LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
SCT-BKN CI/CS JUST UPSTREAM INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY.
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO BEFORE FULL SUNRISE
AND WITH A DRY LOW LEVELS...THE DIURNAL CLIMB SHOULD BE RATHER
QUICK THIS MORNING. MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

AFTER SUNRISE...PLENTY OF IT WILL HELP JUMP START TEMPERATURES.
THEY WILL RISE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE 40S DURING THE MORNING.
THEN...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY AFTERNOON...SENDING INTO
THE 50S MIDDAY...AND INTO THE 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON IN MOST
PLACES. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 MPH...BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY AS THE MIXING
HEIGHT SHOULD ONLY BE 4KFT - 4.5KFT...CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY.

THERE WILL BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE TODAY...AND
THE CLOUDS WILL TEND TO THICKEN BY LATE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACH...RAIN
CHANCES INCREASES...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THESE
SHOWERS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT
AROUND 50 IN THE TRI-CITY AREAS AS WE WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT DURING THE MORNING...LEAVING A MAINLY
DRY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE DISTURBANCE STILL OVERHEAD...A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED. A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
IF WE DO GET ANY...THIS WOULD ONLY INCREASE INSTABILITY AS THE MID
LEVELS COOL. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST...AND BECOME A BIT
BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE
60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 40S IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. THE
CLIPPER HOWEVER WILL SERVE TO PRODUCE A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS IT IS A SMALL COMPACT SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN
SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LOWER LITCHFIELD). IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL END TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM
THE LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH A
RIDGE AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR.  THIS SURFACE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM THE CUT OFF LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND PACIFIC ENERGY COMING ASHORE ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA ARE FORECAST TO PHASE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE MID AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  IN
FACT...THIS LOW MAY BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE DOWNSTREAM MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE NORTHEAST.  CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
LATEST ENSEMBLES SUGGEST PWAT ANOMALIES CLIMB TOWARD 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH H850 SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES
APPROACHING 4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS IF TRENDS OF UPSTREAM TROUGH POSITION ARE
DEEPER AND SLOWER...THIS COULD RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN /ESPECIALLY INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN/.

BY TUESDAY...SEEMS A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...SOME HINTS OF A WEAK PV ANOMALY WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AS WE WILL KEEP CHC-
SCT POPS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES FURTHER ELONGATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.  THERMAL PROFILES MAY BE COOL ENOUGH ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACK PARK FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS TO MIX WITH SNOW MAINLY
AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

THANK YOU TO SURROUNDING WFOS FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY. CHANCE
FOR MVFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT WITH SHOWER POTENTIAL ON THE
INCREASE.

THERE WILL BE FEW TO SCT CI/CS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. LIGHT OR
CALM WIND IN THE EARLY MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY 5-10KTS BY
LATE MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL BECOME GUSTY
WITH THOSE GUSTS UP TO 20KTS...SO JUST A LITTLE LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY.

VFR CIGS WILL WORK INTO THE TAFS THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEN THE CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS WILL EXIST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
 ...LOW RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...

ANOTHER DRY DAY ON TAP WITH DEWPOINTS ONCE AGAIN HELD TO THE
20S...PERHAPS EVEN HIGH TEENS IN SOME SPOTS. WITH PROJECTED HIGH IN
THE 60S...THIS WILL YIELD RH VALUES DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 20
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MIXING LAYER WILL BE A LOT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY IN
THE 3500-4500 AGL FOOT RANGE (AS OPPOSED TO NEARLY 7000 FEET ON
WEDNESDAY). THEREFORE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING THE WIND TO BE QUITE AS
GUSTY AS YESTERDAY. THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH...WITH
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. AS ALWAYS...THERE COULD BE A FEW ROGUE
HIGHER GUSTS.

TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD GET A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT ESPECIALLY SINCE SOME RAIN IS
LIKELY. UNFORTUNATELY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AROUND OR A
LITTLE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL TURN A BIT BREEZY BY
THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
THE ADIRONDACKS BUT NO RAIN ELSEWHERE. IT WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN A
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH
OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE TENTH AND
A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE FCST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
SYSTEM. THIS RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON OUR HSA OR
STREAMS.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY



000
FXUS61 KALY 161020
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
620 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL BRING A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE COMBINING WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE WHICH WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER MILD
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A
LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
SCT-BKN CI/CS JUST UPSTREAM INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY.
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO BEFORE FULL SUNRISE
AND WITH A DRY LOW LEVELS...THE DIURNAL CLIMB SHOULD BE RATHER
QUICK THIS MORNING. MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

AFTER SUNRISE...PLENTY OF IT WILL HELP JUMP START TEMPERATURES.
THEY WILL RISE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE 40S DURING THE MORNING.
THEN...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY AFTERNOON...SENDING INTO
THE 50S MIDDAY...AND INTO THE 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON IN MOST
PLACES. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 MPH...BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY AS THE MIXING
HEIGHT SHOULD ONLY BE 4KFT - 4.5KFT...CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY.

THERE WILL BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE TODAY...AND
THE CLOUDS WILL TEND TO THICKEN BY LATE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACH...RAIN
CHANCES INCREASES...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THESE
SHOWERS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT
AROUND 50 IN THE TRI-CITY AREAS AS WE WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT DURING THE MORNING...LEAVING A MAINLY
DRY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE DISTURBANCE STILL OVERHEAD...A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED. A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
IF WE DO GET ANY...THIS WOULD ONLY INCREASE INSTABILITY AS THE MID
LEVELS COOL. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST...AND BECOME A BIT
BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE
60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 40S IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. THE
CLIPPER HOWEVER WILL SERVE TO PRODUCE A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS IT IS A SMALL COMPACT SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN
SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LOWER LITCHFIELD). IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL END TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM
THE LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH A
RIDGE AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR.  THIS SURFACE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM THE CUT OFF LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND PACIFIC ENERGY COMING ASHORE ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA ARE FORECAST TO PHASE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE MID AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  IN
FACT...THIS LOW MAY BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE DOWNSTREAM MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE NORTHEAST.  CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
LATEST ENSEMBLES SUGGEST PWAT ANOMALIES CLIMB TOWARD 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH H850 SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES
APPROACHING 4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS IF TRENDS OF UPSTREAM TROUGH POSITION ARE
DEEPER AND SLOWER...THIS COULD RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN /ESPECIALLY INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN/.

BY TUESDAY...SEEMS A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...SOME HINTS OF A WEAK PV ANOMALY WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AS WE WILL KEEP CHC-
SCT POPS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES FURTHER ELONGATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.  THERMAL PROFILES MAY BE COOL ENOUGH ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACK PARK FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS TO MIX WITH SNOW MAINLY
AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

THANK YOU TO SURROUNDING WFOS FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY. CHANCE
FOR MVFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT WITH SHOWER POTENTIAL ON THE
INCREASE.

THERE WILL BE FEW TO SCT CI/CS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. LIGHT OR
CALM WIND IN THE EARLY MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY 5-10KTS BY
LATE MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL BECOME GUSTY
WITH THOSE GUSTS UP TO 20KTS...SO JUST A LITTLE LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY.

VFR CIGS WILL WORK INTO THE TAFS THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEN THE CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS WILL EXIST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
 ...LOW RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...

ANOTHER DRY DAY ON TAP WITH DEWPOINTS ONCE AGAIN HELD TO THE
20S...PERHAPS EVEN HIGH TEENS IN SOME SPOTS. WITH PROJECTED HIGH IN
THE 60S...THIS WILL YIELD RH VALUES DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 20
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MIXING LAYER WILL BE A LOT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY IN
THE 3500-4500 AGL FOOT RANGE (AS OPPOSED TO NEARLY 7000 FEET ON
WEDNESDAY). THEREFORE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING THE WIND TO BE QUITE AS
GUSTY AS YESTERDAY. THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH...WITH
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. AS ALWAYS...THERE COULD BE A FEW ROGUE
HIGHER GUSTS.

TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD GET A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT ESPECIALLY SINCE SOME RAIN IS
LIKELY. UNFORTUNATELY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AROUND OR A
LITTLE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL TURN A BIT BREEZY BY
THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
THE ADIRONDACKS BUT NO RAIN ELSEWHERE. IT WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN A
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH
OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE TENTH AND
A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE FCST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
SYSTEM. THIS RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON OUR HSA OR
STREAMS.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY



000
FXUS61 KALY 161020
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
620 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL BRING A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE COMBINING WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE WHICH WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER MILD
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A
LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
SCT-BKN CI/CS JUST UPSTREAM INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY.
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO BEFORE FULL SUNRISE
AND WITH A DRY LOW LEVELS...THE DIURNAL CLIMB SHOULD BE RATHER
QUICK THIS MORNING. MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

AFTER SUNRISE...PLENTY OF IT WILL HELP JUMP START TEMPERATURES.
THEY WILL RISE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE 40S DURING THE MORNING.
THEN...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY AFTERNOON...SENDING INTO
THE 50S MIDDAY...AND INTO THE 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON IN MOST
PLACES. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 MPH...BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY AS THE MIXING
HEIGHT SHOULD ONLY BE 4KFT - 4.5KFT...CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY.

THERE WILL BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE TODAY...AND
THE CLOUDS WILL TEND TO THICKEN BY LATE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACH...RAIN
CHANCES INCREASES...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THESE
SHOWERS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT
AROUND 50 IN THE TRI-CITY AREAS AS WE WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT DURING THE MORNING...LEAVING A MAINLY
DRY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE DISTURBANCE STILL OVERHEAD...A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED. A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
IF WE DO GET ANY...THIS WOULD ONLY INCREASE INSTABILITY AS THE MID
LEVELS COOL. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST...AND BECOME A BIT
BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE
60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 40S IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. THE
CLIPPER HOWEVER WILL SERVE TO PRODUCE A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS IT IS A SMALL COMPACT SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN
SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LOWER LITCHFIELD). IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL END TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM
THE LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH A
RIDGE AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR.  THIS SURFACE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM THE CUT OFF LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND PACIFIC ENERGY COMING ASHORE ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA ARE FORECAST TO PHASE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE MID AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  IN
FACT...THIS LOW MAY BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE DOWNSTREAM MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE NORTHEAST.  CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
LATEST ENSEMBLES SUGGEST PWAT ANOMALIES CLIMB TOWARD 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH H850 SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES
APPROACHING 4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS IF TRENDS OF UPSTREAM TROUGH POSITION ARE
DEEPER AND SLOWER...THIS COULD RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN /ESPECIALLY INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN/.

BY TUESDAY...SEEMS A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...SOME HINTS OF A WEAK PV ANOMALY WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AS WE WILL KEEP CHC-
SCT POPS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES FURTHER ELONGATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST...ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.  THERMAL PROFILES MAY BE COOL ENOUGH ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACK PARK FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS TO MIX WITH SNOW MAINLY
AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL WITH
PRECIPITATION AT OR ABOVE NORMAL.

THANK YOU TO SURROUNDING WFOS FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY. CHANCE
FOR MVFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT WITH SHOWER POTENTIAL ON THE
INCREASE.

THERE WILL BE FEW TO SCT CI/CS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. LIGHT OR
CALM WIND IN THE EARLY MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY 5-10KTS BY
LATE MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL BECOME GUSTY
WITH THOSE GUSTS UP TO 20KTS...SO JUST A LITTLE LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY.

VFR CIGS WILL WORK INTO THE TAFS THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEN THE CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS WILL EXIST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
 ...LOW RH VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...

ANOTHER DRY DAY ON TAP WITH DEWPOINTS ONCE AGAIN HELD TO THE
20S...PERHAPS EVEN HIGH TEENS IN SOME SPOTS. WITH PROJECTED HIGH IN
THE 60S...THIS WILL YIELD RH VALUES DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 20
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MIXING LAYER WILL BE A LOT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY IN
THE 3500-4500 AGL FOOT RANGE (AS OPPOSED TO NEARLY 7000 FEET ON
WEDNESDAY). THEREFORE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING THE WIND TO BE QUITE AS
GUSTY AS YESTERDAY. THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH...WITH
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. AS ALWAYS...THERE COULD BE A FEW ROGUE
HIGHER GUSTS.

TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. RH VALUES SHOULD GET A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT ESPECIALLY SINCE SOME RAIN IS
LIKELY. UNFORTUNATELY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AROUND OR A
LITTLE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL TURN A BIT BREEZY BY
THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A PARTIAL RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RESIDUAL
LIGHT BREEZE.

A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
THE ADIRONDACKS BUT NO RAIN ELSEWHERE. IT WILL HOWEVER...TIGHTEN A
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
GUSTY NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND. IF WE DON/T RECEIVE THE QUARTER INCH
OF RAINFALL FRIDAY...WE COULD HAVE SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGY ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE TENTH AND
A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE FCST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
SYSTEM. THIS RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON OUR HSA OR
STREAMS.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY



000
FXUS61 KALY 161020
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
620 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL BRING A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE COMBINING WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE WHICH WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER MILD
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A
LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
SCT-BKN CI/CS JUST UPSTREAM INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY.
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO BEFORE FULL SUNRISE
AND WITH A DRY LOW LEVELS...THE DIURNAL CLIMB SHOULD BE RATHER
QUICK THIS MORNING. MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

AFTER SUNRISE...PLENTY OF IT WILL HELP JUMP START TEMPERATURES.
THEY WILL RISE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE 40S DURING THE MORNING.
THEN...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN BY AFTERNOON...SENDING INTO
THE 50S MIDDAY...AND INTO THE 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON IN MOST
PLACES. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 MPH...BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY AS THE MIXING
HEIGHT SHOULD ONLY BE 4KFT - 4.5KFT...CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY.

THERE WILL BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MIXING WITH THE SUNSHINE TODAY...AND
THE CLOUDS WILL TEND TO THICKEN BY LATE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACH...RAIN
CHANCES INCREASES...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THESE
SHOWERS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY BREEZE. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 40S...EXCEPT
AROUND 50 IN THE TRI-CITY AREAS AS WE WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT DURING THE MORNING...LEAVING A MAINLY
DRY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE DISTURBANCE STILL OVERHEAD...A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED. A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
IF WE DO GET ANY...THIS WOULD ONLY INCREASE INSTABILITY AS THE MID
LEVELS COOL. THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST...AND BECOME A BIT
BREEZY AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE
60S...ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A PARTLY SKY. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO MID 40S IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY.

SATURDAY...A CLIPPER TYPE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY WITH SOME SUNSHINE. THE
CLIPPER HOWEVER WILL SERVE TO PRODUCE A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS IT IS A SMALL COMPACT SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ONE MORE DAY...60S...AND EVEN
SOME LOWER 70S IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LOWER LITCHFIELD). IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE BREEZY SO NOT NO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A TRANQUIL END TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM
THE LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH A
RIDGE AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR.  THIS SURFACE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM THE CUT OFF LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND PACIFIC ENERGY COMING ASHORE ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA ARE FORECAST TO PHASE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE MID AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  IN
FAC