Home > Products > State Listing > Vermont Data
Latest:
 AFDBTV |  AFDALY |
  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 131717
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1217 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH NOON. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE SEASON WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS. A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WIND CHILL WARNINGS BEGIN THIS MORNING OR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA.

AS OF 1215 PM EST...THE ARCTIC FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALLOWING FOR A FRIGID AIR MASS TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS
THE REGION. ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS PREVALENT
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A FEW MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY
BRUSH THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SCHOHARIE COUNTY. WILL ONLY
MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME SINCE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL NY.

THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE FRIGID ARCTIC AIR MASS BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STEADILY
INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS MAY REACH
OR EXCEED 45 MPH IN SOME SPOTS...AND WILL MENTION IN THE WIND
CHILL STATEMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
BELOW ZERO LATER THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE TO
TUMBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST BRUTAL COLD TODAY WILL BE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO BY DAY/S END. WIND CHILLS VALUES WILL BE DANGEROUSLY
LOW BY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY -20 TO -40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIND CHILL WARNING CONTINUES TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS WHEN THE WORST OF THE BRUTALLY
COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL VALUES WILL OCCUR. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAKING CONDITIONS
LIFE THREATENING TO THOSE OUTDOORS FOR ANY APPRECIABLE AMOUNT OF
TIME. ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND -10 TO -20 FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA...EXCEPT -20 TO -30 ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. DAILY RECORD MINIMUM TEMPS COULD BE BROKEN IN MANY
LOCATIONS...INCLUDING THE ALBANY AREA SUNDAY MORNING. COMBINED
WITH THE EXTREME COLD...PERSISTENT WIND WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS
TO LIFE THREATENING WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN -25 AND -45.

A SIGNIFICANT UPPER AIR RECORD COULD BE BROKEN AT ALBANY THIS
EVENING AT 7 PM OR 00Z WHEN OUR BALLOON IS LAUNCHED. THE CURRENT
RECORD COLD 850 MB TEMPERATURE IS -30.5 C SET BACK ON 4 JANUARY
1981 AND ON 18 JANUARY 1982. FORECAST MODELS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST BETWEEN -30 AND -32 C FOR 00Z THIS EVENING.

DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS AND EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE WIND WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES OF ONLY AROUND ZERO TO 10
ABOVE ARE FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE IT WILL STILL BE VERY
COLD...THE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO ABATE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.

VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT TOO...BUT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AT LEAST WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER SO WIND
CHILLS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. STILL...MOST AREAS WILL HAVE
MINIMUM TEMPS IN THE ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE. TEMPERATURES MAY
ACTUALLY START TO RISE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BARELY BE NOTICEABLE DUE TO THE FRIGID
TEMPERATURES.

MONDAY WILL START OUT DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS
SHOULD START TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
STARTS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. SNOW MAY DEVELOP BEFORE SUNSET
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY. TIMING OF ONSET
STILL IN QUESTION DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES. REGARDLESS...THE BULK
OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AS AN OPEN WAVE BUT POTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN STORM TRACK...MODELS VARY ON PTYPES. INITIALLY IT
SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...AS WARMER AIR ALOFT
POTENTIALLY MOVES IN...SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET BEFORE
SUNRISE TUESDAY ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION POTENTIAL HAZARDS FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE SYSTEM EVOLVES ON
TUESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION TRANSITION ZONE TUESDAY MORNING COULD
BE BROAD WITH A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND A BRIEF CHANCE FOR
FREEZING RAIN IN THE ZONE BETWEEN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...CAPITAL
DISTRICT... BERKSHIRES...SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THERE IS A CHANCE THE ZONE COULD SHIFT FURTHER SE OR
NW...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
SEGMENT AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION. BASED ON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE...ALL AREAS SHOULD TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN OR MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW...OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN BERKSHIRES . IN THE COLDER
AREAS...THE TRANSITION WILL BE SLOWER...MORE TOWARD LATE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH SOME MID
40S POSSIBLE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW
AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH COLD ADVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CHAOTIC UPPER PATTERN WITH MEAN UPPER
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND MORE UPPER IMPULSES ROTATING
THROUGH THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.
UPPER ENERGY BASED IN NORTHERN STREAM EXPECTED TO HAVE LESS
MOISTURE BUT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40...SOME
UPPER 20S NORTHERN AREAS.

DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGHS IN
THE 20S TO AROUND 30...BUT SOME TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. MORE
UPPER ENERGY APPROACHES FRIDAY WITH STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION.
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND TYPE A BIT UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT...BUT
SOME CONSENSUS IN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE FOR PATCHY LIGHT SNOW
TRANSITIONING TO A LIGHT MIX FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BEYOND. HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE 30S...AROUND 30 IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH MID
MORNING. A NW FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT PERIOD WITH GUSTY WINDS.

THE LAST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT KPSF AROUND 12Z...SO
ACKNOWLEDGING VCSH THERE...ALONG WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS
THROUGH 13Z. OTHER THAN THE BRIEF MVFR CEILING AT KPSF THIS
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 12Z SUNDAY.

A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY PRECEDING THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL RESULT
IN WINDS BECOMING W TO NW AT 6-12 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25
KTS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT LATER
IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AT 12-20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
AROUND 30 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING BUT WILL STILL BE GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...SN...SLEET.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH BITTER COLD AIR IN PLACE...ICE COVERAGE ON RIVERS AND LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY.

HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT
ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF PRECIPITATION THAT
MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
STORM SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT COULD OCCUR. AT LEAST SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. AS
TEMPERATURES WARM BY TUESDAY MORNING...ANY FROZEN PRECIP MAY CHANGE
TO RAIN. IF THE THREAT OF MORE RAIN WERE TO MATERIALIZE...IT COULD
HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
THE GROUND WILL BE FULLY FROZEN BY THAT TIME...ALLOWING MUCH OF THE
RAIN TO BE RUNOFF IN AREAS THAT WILL NOT HAVE SNOWPACK. DETAILS WILL
BECOME MORE CERTAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO SUNDAY.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14...

     TEMP YEAR
ALB  -10  1987
POU  -14  1979
GFL  -24  2003
PSF  -12  1934

FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...

ALB  -13
POU   -7
GFL  -20
PSF -14

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038-
     042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ039>041-043-
     048>050-052>054-059>061-064>066-083-084.
MA...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 131439
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
939 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH NOON. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE SEASON WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS. A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WIND CHILL WARNINGS BEGIN THIS MORNING OR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA.

AS OF 935 AM EST...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH A
SECONDARY BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY THE ACTUAL ARCTIC FRONT...STRETCHING
FROM SW VT TO JUST SE OF KALB INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. NOT MUCH
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG EITHER BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MOHAWK AND
SCHOHARIE VALLEYS INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS/SCHOHARIE CO AND
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH THIS
MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS PREVALENT THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A FEW MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRUSH
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SCHOHARIE COUNTY. WILL ONLY MENTION
LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME SINCE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
CONFINED TO CENTRAL NY.

THE MAIN STORY WILL BE A FRIGID ARCTIC AIR MASS BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STEADILY
INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS MAY REACH
OR EXCEED 45 MPH IN SOME SPOTS...AND WILL MENTION IN THE WIND
CHILL STATEMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
BELOW ZERO LATER THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE TO
TUMBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST BRUTAL COLD TODAY WILL BE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO BY DAY/S END. WIND CHILLS VALUES WILL BE DANGEROUSLY
LOW BY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY -20 TO -35.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIND CHILL WARNING CONTINUES TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS WHEN THE WORST OF THE BRUTALLY
COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL VALUES WILL OCCUR. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAKING CONDITIONS
LIFE THREATENING TO THOSE OUTDOORS FOR ANY APPRECIABLE AMOUNT OF
TIME. ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND -10 TO -20 FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA...EXCEPT -20 TO -30 ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. DAILY RECORD MINIMUM TEMPS COULD BE BROKEN IN MANY
LOCATIONS...INCLUDING THE ALBANY AREA SUNDAY MORNING. COMBINED
WITH THE EXTREME COLD...PERSISTENT WIND WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS
TO LIFE THREATENING WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN -25 AND -45.

A SIGNIFICANT UPPER AIR RECORD COULD BE BROKEN AT ALBANY THIS
EVENING AT 7 PM OR 00Z WHEN OUR BALLOON IS LAUNCHED. THE CURRENT
RECORD COLD 850 MB TEMPERATURE IS -30.5 C SET BACK ON 4 JANUARY
1981 AND ON 18 JANUARY 1982. FORECAST MODELS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST BETWEEN -30 AND -32 C FOR 00Z THIS EVENING.

DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS AND EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE WIND WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES OF ONLY AROUND ZERO TO 10
ABOVE ARE FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE IT WILL STILL BE VERY
COLD...THE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO ABATE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.

VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT TOO...BUT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AT LEAST WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER SO WIND
CHILLS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. STILL...MOST AREAS WILL HAVE
MINIMUM TEMPS IN THE ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE. TEMPERATURES MAY
ACTUALLY START TO RISE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BARELY BE NOTICEABLE DUE TO THE FRIGID
TEMPERATURES.

MONDAY WILL START OUT DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS
SHOULD START TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
STARTS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. SNOW MAY DEVELOP BEFORE SUNSET
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY. TIMING OF ONSET
STILL IN QUESTION DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES. REGARDLESS...THE BULK
OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AS AN OPEN WAVE BUT POTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN STORM TRACK...MODELS VARY ON PTYPES. INITIALLY IT
SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...AS WARMER AIR ALOFT
POTENTIALLY MOVES IN...SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET BEFORE
SUNRISE TUESDAY ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION POTENTIAL HAZARDS FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE SYSTEM EVOLVES ON
TUESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION TRANSITION ZONE TUESDAY MORNING COULD
BE BROAD WITH A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND A BRIEF CHANCE FOR
FREEZING RAIN IN THE ZONE BETWEEN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...CAPITAL
DISTRICT... BERKSHIRES...SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THERE IS A CHANCE THE ZONE COULD SHIFT FURTHER SE OR
NW...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
SEGMENT AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION. BASED ON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE...ALL AREAS SHOULD TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN OR MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW...OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN BERKSHIRES . IN THE COLDER
AREAS...THE TRANSITION WILL BE SLOWER...MORE TOWARD LATE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH SOME MID
40S POSSIBLE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW
AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH COLD ADVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CHAOTIC UPPER PATTERN WITH MEAN UPPER
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND MORE UPPER IMPULSES ROTATING
THROUGH THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.
UPPER ENERGY BASED IN NORTHERN STREAM EXPECTED TO HAVE LESS
MOISTURE BUT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40...SOME
UPPER 20S NORTHERN AREAS.

DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGHS IN
THE 20S TO AROUND 30...BUT SOME TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. MORE
UPPER ENERGY APPROACHES FRIDAY WITH STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION.
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND TYPE A BIT UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT...BUT
SOME CONSENSUS IN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE FOR PATCHY LIGHT SNOW
TRANSITIONING TO A LIGHT MIX FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BEYOND. HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE 30S...AROUND 30 IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH MID
MORNING. A NW FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT PERIOD WITH GUSTY WINDS.

THE LAST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT KPSF AROUND 12Z...SO
ACKNOWLEDGING VCSH THERE...ALONG WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS
THROUGH 13Z. OTHER THAN THE BRIEF MVFR CEILING AT KPSF THIS
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 12Z SUNDAY.

A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY PRECEDING THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL RESULT
IN WINDS BECOMING W TO NW AT 6-12 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25
KTS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT LATER
IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AT 12-20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
AROUND 30 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING BUT WILL STILL BE GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...SN...SLEET.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH BITTER COLD AIR IN PLACE...ICE COVERAGE ON RIVERS AND LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY.

HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT
ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF PRECIPITATION THAT
MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
STORM SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT COULD OCCUR. AT LEAST SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. AS
TEMPERATURES WARM BY TUESDAY MORNING...ANY FROZEN PRECIP MAY CHANGE
TO RAIN. IF THE THREAT OF MORE RAIN WERE TO MATERIALIZE...IT COULD
HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
THE GROUND WILL BE FULLY FROZEN BY THAT TIME...ALLOWING MUCH OF THE
RAIN TO BE RUNOFF IN AREAS THAT WILL NOT HAVE SNOWPACK. DETAILS WILL
BECOME MORE CERTAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO SUNDAY.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14...

     TEMP YEAR
ALB  -10  1987
POU  -14  1979
GFL  -24  2003
PSF  -12  1934

FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...

ALB  -13
POU   -7
GFL  -20
PSF -14

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038-
     042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-064>066-083-
     084.
MA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBTV 131430
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
930 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE WINTER SEASON IS UPON US...WITH
DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS THROUGH SUNDAY. A MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MONDAY...WITH A STRONG AND MOISTURE LADEN
STORM SYSTEM BRINGING POTENTIAL MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 929 AM EST SATURDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE.
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING
TODAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN FALLING TEMPERATURES. HAVE TWEAKED
GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS AND KEPT SAME IDEA OF FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. TWEAKED CLOUD COVER TO GO WITH LESS
CLOUD COVER AND LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
VERMONT DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 449 AM EST SATURDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING CONTINUES ON SUNDAY
AS COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE WINTER SEASON REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND MODIFYING A BIT AS IT DOES SO. BUT AFTER A FRIGID
START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ZERO. WINDS
WILL STILL BE BRISK ENOUGH AT 10-15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO
PRODUCE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES OF 30 TO 35 BELOW DURING THE
MORNING. WINDS WILL SLACKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH APPROACH OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT
IN THE WIND CHILLS. WHILE IT WILL BE A BITTER COLD DAY...WE SHOULD
SEE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. COLD AIR TEMPERATURES AND WARM WATERS OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN MAY RESULT IN STEAM CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OFF THE LAKE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OF VERMONT. ELSEWHERE...DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SUBZERO READINGS AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE
EAST COAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER IN
THE DAY...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA DUE WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 449 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE
RAPIDLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT
OF LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND RACES NORTHEAST WITH
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TRACK OF ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS AND THE RESULTING PTYPE AND AMOUNTS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS TRACKS SURFACE LOW JUST TO OUR EAST...CROSSING
NEW HAMPSHIRE ON TUESDAY...WHILE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FAVOR A MORE
WESTERN TRACK UP THROUGH NEW YORK STATE. HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO GFS
SOLUTION...WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH WPC THINKING AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PERIOD OF
GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT. REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION...PTYPE MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY SNOW. DURING TUESDAY HOWEVER...ENOUGH WARMING
EXPECTED FOR A CHANGE TO MIXED PRECIP OR EVEN RAIN...DEPENDING ON
EVENTUAL LOW TRACK. QPF MAY REACH 1 TO PERHAPS EVEN 2 INCHES...SO
POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...RAIN OR
MIXED PCPN.

SYSTEM EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PCPN TAPERING
TO SNOW SHOWERS. CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY WITH
UPPER TROUGH OVER REGION AND DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT MOVING
THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO DRIER AND COLDER WEATHER
FOR THURSDAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND
20S. NEXT SHORTWAVE IN FAST FLOW ALOFT APPROACHES FRIDAY
HOWEVER...BRINGING CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...EXPECT A SHORT-DURATION (AN HOUR OR LESS)
VISIBILITY DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR IN SNOW SQUALLS WITH A GUSTY WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST AT MPV AND RUT. RAPID CLEARING
TOWARD VFR FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY, THOUGH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON, AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS. SOME
BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD HEAVY MIXED
WINTRY PRECIPITATION NWD INTO THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD IFR
AVIATION WX CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY MAY BRING SOME MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR FEBRUARY 13TH FOR OUR CLIMATE
SITES...
BTV -25 1967
MPV -29 1967
MSS -33 1967
SJBV1 -30 1967
MMNV1 -32 1967

COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR VALENTINES DAY (FEBRUARY
14TH)...
BTV -2 1979
MPV -4 1979
MSS -3 1987
SJBV1 +2 1987
MMNV1 -19 1979

COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR VALENTINES DAY (FEBRUARY
14TH)...
BTV -19 1987
MPV -19 2003
MSS -29 2003
SJBV1 -28 2003
MMNV1 -30 1979

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ001>012-
     016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ026>031-034-
     035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/NEILES
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NEILES
CLIMATE...LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 131138
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
638 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA...BRINGING
WITH IT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR
MASS OF THE WINTER SEASON...WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS
THROUGH SUNDAY. A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
MONDAY...WITH A STRONG AND MOISTURE LADEN STORM SYSTEM BRINGING
POTENTIAL MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM EST SATURDAY...ARCTIC FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE SEEN SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS
THE FRONT PASSES. ALSO SEEING WINDS TURN TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA
THE REST OF TODAY...AND SHOW WILL BE ENDING OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY...THEREFORE DAYTIME MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ACHIEVED...WILL SEE DROPPING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN NEW YORK
HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW ZERO IN SOME PLACES. SAME SCENARIO FOR
TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO RIDGE OVER THE
AREA...COLD NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. WIDESPREAD BELOW ZERO
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...NEGATIVE TEENS AND TWENTIES. WE CONTINUE
WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BOTH OF THESE PERIODS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 449 AM EST SATURDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING CONTINUES ON SUNDAY
AS COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE WINTER SEASON REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND MODIFYING A BIT AS IT DOES SO. BUT AFTER A FRIGID
START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ZERO. WINDS
WILL STILL BE BRISK ENOUGH AT 10-15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO
PRODUCE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES OF 30 TO 35 BELOW DURING THE
MORNING. WINDS WILL SLACKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH APPROACH OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT
IN THE WIND CHILLS. WHILE IT WILL BE A BITTER COLD DAY...WE SHOULD
SEE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. COLD AIR TEMPERATURES AND WARM WATERS OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN MAY RESULT IN STEAM CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OFF THE LAKE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OF VERMONT. ELSEWHERE...DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SUBZERO READINGS AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE
EAST COAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER IN
THE DAY...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA DUE WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 449 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE
RAPIDLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT
OF LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND RACES NORTHEAST WITH
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TRACK OF ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS AND THE RESULTING PTYPE AND AMOUNTS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS TRACKS SURFACE LOW JUST TO OUR EAST...CROSSING
NEW HAMPSHIRE ON TUESDAY...WHILE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FAVOR A MORE
WESTERN TRACK UP THROUGH NEW YORK STATE. HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO GFS
SOLUTION...WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH WPC THINKING AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PERIOD OF
GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT. REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION...PTYPE MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY SNOW. DURING TUESDAY HOWEVER...ENOUGH WARMING
EXPECTED FOR A CHANGE TO MIXED PRECIP OR EVEN RAIN...DEPENDING ON
EVENTUAL LOW TRACK. QPF MAY REACH 1 TO PERHAPS EVEN 2 INCHES...SO
POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...RAIN OR
MIXED PCPN.

SYSTEM EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PCPN TAPERING
TO SNOW SHOWERS. CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY WITH
UPPER TROUGH OVER REGION AND DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT MOVING
THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO DRIER AND COLDER WEATHER
FOR THURSDAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND
20S. NEXT SHORTWAVE IN FAST FLOW ALOFT APPROACHES FRIDAY
HOWEVER...BRINGING CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...EXPECT A SHORT-DURATION (AN HOUR OR LESS)
VISIBILITY DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR IN SNOW SQUALLS WITH A GUSTY WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST AT MPV AND RUT. RAPID CLEARING
TOWARD VFR FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY, THOUGH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON, AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS. SOME
BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD HEAVY MIXED
WINTRY PRECIPITATION NWD INTO THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD IFR
AVIATION WX CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY MAY BRING SOME MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR FEBRUARY 13TH FOR OUR CLIMATE
SITES...
BTV -25 1967
MPV -29 1967
MSS -33 1967
SJBV1 -30 1967
MMNV1 -32 1967

COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR VALENTINES DAY (FEBRUARY
14TH)...
BTV -2 1979
MPV -4 1979
MSS -3 1987
SJBV1 +2 1987
MMNV1 -19 1979

COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR VALENTINES DAY (FEBRUARY
14TH)...
BTV -19 1987
MPV -19 2003
MSS -29 2003
SJBV1 -28 2003
MMNV1 -30 1979

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ001>012-
     016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ026>031-034-
     035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NEILES
CLIMATE...LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KBTV 131138
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
638 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA...BRINGING
WITH IT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR
MASS OF THE WINTER SEASON...WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS
THROUGH SUNDAY. A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
MONDAY...WITH A STRONG AND MOISTURE LADEN STORM SYSTEM BRINGING
POTENTIAL MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM EST SATURDAY...ARCTIC FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE SEEN SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS
THE FRONT PASSES. ALSO SEEING WINDS TURN TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA
THE REST OF TODAY...AND SHOW WILL BE ENDING OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY...THEREFORE DAYTIME MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ACHIEVED...WILL SEE DROPPING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN NEW YORK
HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW ZERO IN SOME PLACES. SAME SCENARIO FOR
TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO RIDGE OVER THE
AREA...COLD NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. WIDESPREAD BELOW ZERO
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...NEGATIVE TEENS AND TWENTIES. WE CONTINUE
WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BOTH OF THESE PERIODS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 449 AM EST SATURDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING CONTINUES ON SUNDAY
AS COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE WINTER SEASON REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND MODIFYING A BIT AS IT DOES SO. BUT AFTER A FRIGID
START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ZERO. WINDS
WILL STILL BE BRISK ENOUGH AT 10-15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO
PRODUCE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES OF 30 TO 35 BELOW DURING THE
MORNING. WINDS WILL SLACKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH APPROACH OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT
IN THE WIND CHILLS. WHILE IT WILL BE A BITTER COLD DAY...WE SHOULD
SEE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. COLD AIR TEMPERATURES AND WARM WATERS OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN MAY RESULT IN STEAM CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OFF THE LAKE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OF VERMONT. ELSEWHERE...DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SUBZERO READINGS AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE
EAST COAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER IN
THE DAY...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA DUE WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 449 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE
RAPIDLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT
OF LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND RACES NORTHEAST WITH
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TRACK OF ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS AND THE RESULTING PTYPE AND AMOUNTS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS TRACKS SURFACE LOW JUST TO OUR EAST...CROSSING
NEW HAMPSHIRE ON TUESDAY...WHILE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FAVOR A MORE
WESTERN TRACK UP THROUGH NEW YORK STATE. HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO GFS
SOLUTION...WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH WPC THINKING AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PERIOD OF
GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT. REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION...PTYPE MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY SNOW. DURING TUESDAY HOWEVER...ENOUGH WARMING
EXPECTED FOR A CHANGE TO MIXED PRECIP OR EVEN RAIN...DEPENDING ON
EVENTUAL LOW TRACK. QPF MAY REACH 1 TO PERHAPS EVEN 2 INCHES...SO
POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...RAIN OR
MIXED PCPN.

SYSTEM EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PCPN TAPERING
TO SNOW SHOWERS. CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY WITH
UPPER TROUGH OVER REGION AND DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT MOVING
THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO DRIER AND COLDER WEATHER
FOR THURSDAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND
20S. NEXT SHORTWAVE IN FAST FLOW ALOFT APPROACHES FRIDAY
HOWEVER...BRINGING CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...EXPECT A SHORT-DURATION (AN HOUR OR LESS)
VISIBILITY DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR IN SNOW SQUALLS WITH A GUSTY WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST AT MPV AND RUT. RAPID CLEARING
TOWARD VFR FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY, THOUGH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON, AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS. SOME
BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD HEAVY MIXED
WINTRY PRECIPITATION NWD INTO THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD IFR
AVIATION WX CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY MAY BRING SOME MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR FEBRUARY 13TH FOR OUR CLIMATE
SITES...
BTV -25 1967
MPV -29 1967
MSS -33 1967
SJBV1 -30 1967
MMNV1 -32 1967

COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR VALENTINES DAY (FEBRUARY
14TH)...
BTV -2 1979
MPV -4 1979
MSS -3 1987
SJBV1 +2 1987
MMNV1 -19 1979

COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR VALENTINES DAY (FEBRUARY
14TH)...
BTV -19 1987
MPV -19 2003
MSS -29 2003
SJBV1 -28 2003
MMNV1 -30 1979

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ001>012-
     016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ026>031-034-
     035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NEILES
CLIMATE...LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 131138
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
638 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA...BRINGING
WITH IT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR
MASS OF THE WINTER SEASON...WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS
THROUGH SUNDAY. A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
MONDAY...WITH A STRONG AND MOISTURE LADEN STORM SYSTEM BRINGING
POTENTIAL MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM EST SATURDAY...ARCTIC FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE SEEN SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS
THE FRONT PASSES. ALSO SEEING WINDS TURN TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA
THE REST OF TODAY...AND SHOW WILL BE ENDING OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY...THEREFORE DAYTIME MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ACHIEVED...WILL SEE DROPPING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN NEW YORK
HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW ZERO IN SOME PLACES. SAME SCENARIO FOR
TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO RIDGE OVER THE
AREA...COLD NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. WIDESPREAD BELOW ZERO
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...NEGATIVE TEENS AND TWENTIES. WE CONTINUE
WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BOTH OF THESE PERIODS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 449 AM EST SATURDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING CONTINUES ON SUNDAY
AS COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE WINTER SEASON REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND MODIFYING A BIT AS IT DOES SO. BUT AFTER A FRIGID
START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ZERO. WINDS
WILL STILL BE BRISK ENOUGH AT 10-15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO
PRODUCE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES OF 30 TO 35 BELOW DURING THE
MORNING. WINDS WILL SLACKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH APPROACH OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT
IN THE WIND CHILLS. WHILE IT WILL BE A BITTER COLD DAY...WE SHOULD
SEE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. COLD AIR TEMPERATURES AND WARM WATERS OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN MAY RESULT IN STEAM CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OFF THE LAKE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OF VERMONT. ELSEWHERE...DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SUBZERO READINGS AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE
EAST COAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER IN
THE DAY...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA DUE WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 449 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE
RAPIDLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT
OF LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND RACES NORTHEAST WITH
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TRACK OF ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS AND THE RESULTING PTYPE AND AMOUNTS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS TRACKS SURFACE LOW JUST TO OUR EAST...CROSSING
NEW HAMPSHIRE ON TUESDAY...WHILE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FAVOR A MORE
WESTERN TRACK UP THROUGH NEW YORK STATE. HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO GFS
SOLUTION...WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH WPC THINKING AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PERIOD OF
GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT. REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION...PTYPE MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY SNOW. DURING TUESDAY HOWEVER...ENOUGH WARMING
EXPECTED FOR A CHANGE TO MIXED PRECIP OR EVEN RAIN...DEPENDING ON
EVENTUAL LOW TRACK. QPF MAY REACH 1 TO PERHAPS EVEN 2 INCHES...SO
POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...RAIN OR
MIXED PCPN.

SYSTEM EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PCPN TAPERING
TO SNOW SHOWERS. CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY WITH
UPPER TROUGH OVER REGION AND DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT MOVING
THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO DRIER AND COLDER WEATHER
FOR THURSDAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND
20S. NEXT SHORTWAVE IN FAST FLOW ALOFT APPROACHES FRIDAY
HOWEVER...BRINGING CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...EXPECT A SHORT-DURATION (AN HOUR OR LESS)
VISIBILITY DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR IN SNOW SQUALLS WITH A GUSTY WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST AT MPV AND RUT. RAPID CLEARING
TOWARD VFR FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY, THOUGH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON, AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS. SOME
BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD HEAVY MIXED
WINTRY PRECIPITATION NWD INTO THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD IFR
AVIATION WX CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY MAY BRING SOME MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR FEBRUARY 13TH FOR OUR CLIMATE
SITES...
BTV -25 1967
MPV -29 1967
MSS -33 1967
SJBV1 -30 1967
MMNV1 -32 1967

COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR VALENTINES DAY (FEBRUARY
14TH)...
BTV -2 1979
MPV -4 1979
MSS -3 1987
SJBV1 +2 1987
MMNV1 -19 1979

COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR VALENTINES DAY (FEBRUARY
14TH)...
BTV -19 1987
MPV -19 2003
MSS -29 2003
SJBV1 -28 2003
MMNV1 -30 1979

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ001>012-
     016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ026>031-034-
     035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NEILES
CLIMATE...LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KALY 131128
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
628 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE COLDEST AIR MASS
OF THE SEASON WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS. A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WIND CHILL WARNINGS BEGIN THIS MORNING OR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA.

AS OF 628 AM EST...ARCTIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
NOT MUCH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MOHAWK AND
SCHOHARIE VALLEYS INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH THIS MORNING. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS PREVALENT THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A FEW
MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRUSH THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
AND SCHOHARIE COUNTY. WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME SINCE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL NY.

THE MAIN STORY WILL BE A FRIGID ARCTIC AIR MASS BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STEADILY
INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS MAY REACH
OR EXCEED 45 MPH IN SOME SPOTS...AND WILL MENTION IN THE WIND
CHILL STATEMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
BELOW ZERO LATER THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE TO
TUMBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST BRUTAL COLD TODAY WILL BE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO BY DAY/S END. WIND CHILLS VALUES WILL BE DANGEROUSLY
LOW BY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY -20 TO -35.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIND CHILL WARNING CONTINUES TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS WHEN THE WORST OF THE BRUTALLY
COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL VALUES WILL OCCUR. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAKING CONDITIONS
LIFE THREATENING TO THOSE OUTDOORS FOR ANY APPRECIABLE AMOUNT OF
TIME. ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND -10 TO -20 FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA...EXCEPT -20 TO -30 ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. DAILY RECORD MINIMUM TEMPS COULD BE BROKEN IN MANY
LOCATIONS...INCLUDING THE ALBANY AREA SUNDAY MORNING. COMBINED
WITH THE EXTREME COLD...PERSISTENT WIND WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS
TO LIFE THREATENING WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN -25 AND -45.

A SIGNIFICANT UPPER AIR RECORD COULD BE BROKEN AT ALBANY THIS
EVENING AT 7 PM OR 00Z WHEN OUR BALLOON IS LAUNCHED. THE CURRENT
RECORD COLD 850 MB TEMPERATURE IS -30.5 C SET BACK ON 4 JANUARY
1981 AND ON 18 JANUARY 1982. FORECAST MODELS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST BETWEEN -30 AND -32 C FOR 00Z THIS EVENING.

DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS AND EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE WIND WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES OF ONLY AROUND ZERO TO 10
ABOVE ARE FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE IT WILL STILL BE VERY
COLD...THE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO ABATE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.

VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT TOO...BUT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AT LEAST WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER SO WIND
CHILLS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. STILL...MOST AREAS WILL HAVE
MINIMUM TEMPS IN THE ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE. TEMPERATURES MAY
ACTUALLY START TO RISE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BARELY BE NOTICEABLE DUE TO THE FRIGID
TEMPERATURES.

MONDAY WILL START OUT DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS
SHOULD START TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
STARTS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. SNOW MAY DEVELOP BEFORE SUNSET
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY. TIMING OF ONSET
STILL IN QUESTION DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES. REGARDLESS...THE BULK
OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AS AN OPEN WAVE BUT POTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN STORM TRACK...MODELS VARY ON PTYPES. INITIALLY IT
SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...AS WARMER AIR ALOFT
POTENTIALLY MOVES IN...SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET BEFORE
SUNRISE TUESDAY ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION POTENTIAL HAZARDS FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE SYSTEM EVOLVES ON
TUESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION TRANSITION ZONE TUESDAY MORNING COULD
BE BROAD WITH A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND A BRIEF CHANCE FOR
FREEZING RAIN IN THE ZONE BETWEEN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...CAPITAL
DISTRICT... BERKSHIRES...SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THERE IS A CHANCE THE ZONE COULD SHIFT FURTHER SE OR
NW...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
SEGMENT AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION. BASED ON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE...ALL AREAS SHOULD TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN OR MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW...OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN BERKSHIRES . IN THE COLDER
AREAS...THE TRANSITION WILL BE SLOWER...MORE TOWARD LATE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH SOME MID
40S POSSIBLE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW
AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH COLD ADVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CHAOTIC UPPER PATTERN WITH MEAN UPPER
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND MORE UPPER IMPULSES ROTATING
THROUGH THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.
UPPER ENERGY BASED IN NORTHERN STREAM EXPECTED TO HAVE LESS
MOISTURE BUT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40...SOME
UPPER 20S NORTHERN AREAS.

DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGHS IN
THE 20S TO AROUND 30...BUT SOME TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. MORE
UPPER ENERGY APPROACHES FRIDAY WITH STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION.
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND TYPE A BIT UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT...BUT
SOME CONSENSUS IN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE FOR PATCHY LIGHT SNOW
TRANSITIONING TO A LIGHT MIX FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BEYOND. HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE 30S...AROUND 30 IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH MID
MORNING. A NW FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT PERIOD WITH GUSTY WINDS.

THE LAST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT KPSF AROUND 12Z...SO
ACKNOWLEDGING VCSH THERE...ALONG WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS
THROUGH 13Z. OTHER THAN THE BRIEF MVFR CEILING AT KPSF THIS
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 12Z SUNDAY.

A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY PRECEDING THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL RESULT
IN WINDS BECOMING W TO NW AT 6-12 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25
KTS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT LATER
IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AT 12-20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
AROUND 30 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING BUT WILL STILL BE GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...SN...SLEET.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH BITTER COLD AIR IN PLACE...ICE COVERAGE ON RIVERS AND LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY.

HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT
ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF PRECIPITATION THAT
MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
STORM SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT COULD OCCUR. AT LEAST SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. AS
TEMPERATURES WARM BY TUESDAY MORNING...ANY FROZEN PRECIP MAY CHANGE
TO RAIN. IF THE THREAT OF MORE RAIN WERE TO MATERIALIZE...IT COULD
HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
THE GROUND WILL BE FULLY FROZEN BY THAT TIME...ALLOWING MUCH OF THE
RAIN TO BE RUNOFF IN AREAS THAT WILL NOT HAVE SNOWPACK. DETAILS WILL
BECOME MORE CERTAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO SUNDAY.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14...

     TEMP YEAR
ALB  -10  1987
POU  -14  1979
GFL  -24  2003
PSF  -12  1934

FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...

ALB  -13
POU   -7
GFL  -20
PSF  -14

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038-
     042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-064>066-083-
     084.
MA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 131128
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
628 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE COLDEST AIR MASS
OF THE SEASON WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS. A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WIND CHILL WARNINGS BEGIN THIS MORNING OR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA.

AS OF 628 AM EST...ARCTIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
NOT MUCH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MOHAWK AND
SCHOHARIE VALLEYS INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH THIS MORNING. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS PREVALENT THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A FEW
MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRUSH THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
AND SCHOHARIE COUNTY. WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME SINCE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL NY.

THE MAIN STORY WILL BE A FRIGID ARCTIC AIR MASS BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STEADILY
INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS MAY REACH
OR EXCEED 45 MPH IN SOME SPOTS...AND WILL MENTION IN THE WIND
CHILL STATEMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
BELOW ZERO LATER THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE TO
TUMBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST BRUTAL COLD TODAY WILL BE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO BY DAY/S END. WIND CHILLS VALUES WILL BE DANGEROUSLY
LOW BY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY -20 TO -35.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIND CHILL WARNING CONTINUES TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS WHEN THE WORST OF THE BRUTALLY
COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL VALUES WILL OCCUR. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAKING CONDITIONS
LIFE THREATENING TO THOSE OUTDOORS FOR ANY APPRECIABLE AMOUNT OF
TIME. ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND -10 TO -20 FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA...EXCEPT -20 TO -30 ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. DAILY RECORD MINIMUM TEMPS COULD BE BROKEN IN MANY
LOCATIONS...INCLUDING THE ALBANY AREA SUNDAY MORNING. COMBINED
WITH THE EXTREME COLD...PERSISTENT WIND WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS
TO LIFE THREATENING WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN -25 AND -45.

A SIGNIFICANT UPPER AIR RECORD COULD BE BROKEN AT ALBANY THIS
EVENING AT 7 PM OR 00Z WHEN OUR BALLOON IS LAUNCHED. THE CURRENT
RECORD COLD 850 MB TEMPERATURE IS -30.5 C SET BACK ON 4 JANUARY
1981 AND ON 18 JANUARY 1982. FORECAST MODELS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST BETWEEN -30 AND -32 C FOR 00Z THIS EVENING.

DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS AND EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE WIND WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES OF ONLY AROUND ZERO TO 10
ABOVE ARE FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE IT WILL STILL BE VERY
COLD...THE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO ABATE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.

VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT TOO...BUT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AT LEAST WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER SO WIND
CHILLS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. STILL...MOST AREAS WILL HAVE
MINIMUM TEMPS IN THE ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE. TEMPERATURES MAY
ACTUALLY START TO RISE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BARELY BE NOTICEABLE DUE TO THE FRIGID
TEMPERATURES.

MONDAY WILL START OUT DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS
SHOULD START TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
STARTS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. SNOW MAY DEVELOP BEFORE SUNSET
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY. TIMING OF ONSET
STILL IN QUESTION DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES. REGARDLESS...THE BULK
OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AS AN OPEN WAVE BUT POTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN STORM TRACK...MODELS VARY ON PTYPES. INITIALLY IT
SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...AS WARMER AIR ALOFT
POTENTIALLY MOVES IN...SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET BEFORE
SUNRISE TUESDAY ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION POTENTIAL HAZARDS FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE SYSTEM EVOLVES ON
TUESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION TRANSITION ZONE TUESDAY MORNING COULD
BE BROAD WITH A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND A BRIEF CHANCE FOR
FREEZING RAIN IN THE ZONE BETWEEN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...CAPITAL
DISTRICT... BERKSHIRES...SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THERE IS A CHANCE THE ZONE COULD SHIFT FURTHER SE OR
NW...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
SEGMENT AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION. BASED ON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE...ALL AREAS SHOULD TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN OR MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW...OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN BERKSHIRES . IN THE COLDER
AREAS...THE TRANSITION WILL BE SLOWER...MORE TOWARD LATE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH SOME MID
40S POSSIBLE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW
AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH COLD ADVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CHAOTIC UPPER PATTERN WITH MEAN UPPER
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND MORE UPPER IMPULSES ROTATING
THROUGH THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.
UPPER ENERGY BASED IN NORTHERN STREAM EXPECTED TO HAVE LESS
MOISTURE BUT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40...SOME
UPPER 20S NORTHERN AREAS.

DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGHS IN
THE 20S TO AROUND 30...BUT SOME TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. MORE
UPPER ENERGY APPROACHES FRIDAY WITH STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION.
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND TYPE A BIT UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT...BUT
SOME CONSENSUS IN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE FOR PATCHY LIGHT SNOW
TRANSITIONING TO A LIGHT MIX FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BEYOND. HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE 30S...AROUND 30 IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH MID
MORNING. A NW FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT PERIOD WITH GUSTY WINDS.

THE LAST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT KPSF AROUND 12Z...SO
ACKNOWLEDGING VCSH THERE...ALONG WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS
THROUGH 13Z. OTHER THAN THE BRIEF MVFR CEILING AT KPSF THIS
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 12Z SUNDAY.

A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY PRECEDING THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL RESULT
IN WINDS BECOMING W TO NW AT 6-12 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25
KTS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT LATER
IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AT 12-20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
AROUND 30 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING BUT WILL STILL BE GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...SN...SLEET.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH BITTER COLD AIR IN PLACE...ICE COVERAGE ON RIVERS AND LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY.

HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT
ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF PRECIPITATION THAT
MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
STORM SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT COULD OCCUR. AT LEAST SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. AS
TEMPERATURES WARM BY TUESDAY MORNING...ANY FROZEN PRECIP MAY CHANGE
TO RAIN. IF THE THREAT OF MORE RAIN WERE TO MATERIALIZE...IT COULD
HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
THE GROUND WILL BE FULLY FROZEN BY THAT TIME...ALLOWING MUCH OF THE
RAIN TO BE RUNOFF IN AREAS THAT WILL NOT HAVE SNOWPACK. DETAILS WILL
BECOME MORE CERTAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO SUNDAY.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14...

     TEMP YEAR
ALB  -10  1987
POU  -14  1979
GFL  -24  2003
PSF  -12  1934

FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...

ALB  -13
POU   -7
GFL  -20
PSF  -14

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038-
     042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-064>066-083-
     084.
MA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 131128
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
628 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE COLDEST AIR MASS
OF THE SEASON WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS. A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WIND CHILL WARNINGS BEGIN THIS MORNING OR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA.

AS OF 628 AM EST...ARCTIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
NOT MUCH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MOHAWK AND
SCHOHARIE VALLEYS INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH THIS MORNING. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS PREVALENT THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A FEW
MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRUSH THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
AND SCHOHARIE COUNTY. WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME SINCE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL NY.

THE MAIN STORY WILL BE A FRIGID ARCTIC AIR MASS BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STEADILY
INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS MAY REACH
OR EXCEED 45 MPH IN SOME SPOTS...AND WILL MENTION IN THE WIND
CHILL STATEMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
BELOW ZERO LATER THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE TO
TUMBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST BRUTAL COLD TODAY WILL BE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO BY DAY/S END. WIND CHILLS VALUES WILL BE DANGEROUSLY
LOW BY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY -20 TO -35.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIND CHILL WARNING CONTINUES TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS WHEN THE WORST OF THE BRUTALLY
COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL VALUES WILL OCCUR. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAKING CONDITIONS
LIFE THREATENING TO THOSE OUTDOORS FOR ANY APPRECIABLE AMOUNT OF
TIME. ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND -10 TO -20 FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA...EXCEPT -20 TO -30 ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. DAILY RECORD MINIMUM TEMPS COULD BE BROKEN IN MANY
LOCATIONS...INCLUDING THE ALBANY AREA SUNDAY MORNING. COMBINED
WITH THE EXTREME COLD...PERSISTENT WIND WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS
TO LIFE THREATENING WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN -25 AND -45.

A SIGNIFICANT UPPER AIR RECORD COULD BE BROKEN AT ALBANY THIS
EVENING AT 7 PM OR 00Z WHEN OUR BALLOON IS LAUNCHED. THE CURRENT
RECORD COLD 850 MB TEMPERATURE IS -30.5 C SET BACK ON 4 JANUARY
1981 AND ON 18 JANUARY 1982. FORECAST MODELS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST BETWEEN -30 AND -32 C FOR 00Z THIS EVENING.

DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS AND EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE WIND WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES OF ONLY AROUND ZERO TO 10
ABOVE ARE FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE IT WILL STILL BE VERY
COLD...THE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO ABATE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.

VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT TOO...BUT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AT LEAST WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER SO WIND
CHILLS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. STILL...MOST AREAS WILL HAVE
MINIMUM TEMPS IN THE ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE. TEMPERATURES MAY
ACTUALLY START TO RISE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BARELY BE NOTICEABLE DUE TO THE FRIGID
TEMPERATURES.

MONDAY WILL START OUT DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS
SHOULD START TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
STARTS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. SNOW MAY DEVELOP BEFORE SUNSET
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY. TIMING OF ONSET
STILL IN QUESTION DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES. REGARDLESS...THE BULK
OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AS AN OPEN WAVE BUT POTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN STORM TRACK...MODELS VARY ON PTYPES. INITIALLY IT
SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...AS WARMER AIR ALOFT
POTENTIALLY MOVES IN...SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET BEFORE
SUNRISE TUESDAY ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION POTENTIAL HAZARDS FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE SYSTEM EVOLVES ON
TUESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION TRANSITION ZONE TUESDAY MORNING COULD
BE BROAD WITH A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND A BRIEF CHANCE FOR
FREEZING RAIN IN THE ZONE BETWEEN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...CAPITAL
DISTRICT... BERKSHIRES...SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THERE IS A CHANCE THE ZONE COULD SHIFT FURTHER SE OR
NW...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
SEGMENT AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION. BASED ON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE...ALL AREAS SHOULD TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN OR MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW...OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN BERKSHIRES . IN THE COLDER
AREAS...THE TRANSITION WILL BE SLOWER...MORE TOWARD LATE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH SOME MID
40S POSSIBLE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW
AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH COLD ADVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CHAOTIC UPPER PATTERN WITH MEAN UPPER
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND MORE UPPER IMPULSES ROTATING
THROUGH THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.
UPPER ENERGY BASED IN NORTHERN STREAM EXPECTED TO HAVE LESS
MOISTURE BUT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40...SOME
UPPER 20S NORTHERN AREAS.

DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGHS IN
THE 20S TO AROUND 30...BUT SOME TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. MORE
UPPER ENERGY APPROACHES FRIDAY WITH STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION.
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND TYPE A BIT UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT...BUT
SOME CONSENSUS IN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE FOR PATCHY LIGHT SNOW
TRANSITIONING TO A LIGHT MIX FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BEYOND. HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE 30S...AROUND 30 IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH MID
MORNING. A NW FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT PERIOD WITH GUSTY WINDS.

THE LAST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT KPSF AROUND 12Z...SO
ACKNOWLEDGING VCSH THERE...ALONG WITH INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS
THROUGH 13Z. OTHER THAN THE BRIEF MVFR CEILING AT KPSF THIS
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 12Z SUNDAY.

A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY PRECEDING THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL RESULT
IN WINDS BECOMING W TO NW AT 6-12 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25
KTS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT LATER
IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AT 12-20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
AROUND 30 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING BUT WILL STILL BE GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...SN...SLEET.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH BITTER COLD AIR IN PLACE...ICE COVERAGE ON RIVERS AND LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY.

HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT
ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF PRECIPITATION THAT
MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
STORM SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT COULD OCCUR. AT LEAST SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. AS
TEMPERATURES WARM BY TUESDAY MORNING...ANY FROZEN PRECIP MAY CHANGE
TO RAIN. IF THE THREAT OF MORE RAIN WERE TO MATERIALIZE...IT COULD
HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
THE GROUND WILL BE FULLY FROZEN BY THAT TIME...ALLOWING MUCH OF THE
RAIN TO BE RUNOFF IN AREAS THAT WILL NOT HAVE SNOWPACK. DETAILS WILL
BECOME MORE CERTAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO SUNDAY.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14...

     TEMP YEAR
ALB  -10  1987
POU  -14  1979
GFL  -24  2003
PSF  -12  1934

FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...

ALB  -13
POU   -7
GFL  -20
PSF  -14

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038-
     042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-064>066-083-
     084.
MA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBTV 130953
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
453 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA...BRINGING
WITH IT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS.
MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN THE
COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE WINTER SEASON...WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS THROUGH SUNDAY. A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
MONDAY...WITH A STRONG AND MOISTURE LADEN STORM SYSTEM BRINGING
POTENTIAL MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 420 AM EST SATURDAY...ARCTIC FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE SEEN SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS
THE FRONT PASSES. ALSO SEEING WINDS TURN TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA
THE REST OF TODAY...AND SHOW WILL BE ENDING OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY...THEREFORE DAYTIME MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ACHIEVED EARLY...THEN SEE DROPPING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN NEW YORK
HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW ZERO IN SOME PLACES. SAME SCENARIO FOR
TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO RIDGE OVER THE
AREA...COLD NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. WIDESPREAD BELOW ZERO
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...NEGATIVE TEENS AND TWENTIES. WE CONTINUE
WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BOTH OF THESE PERIODS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 449 AM EST SATURDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING CONTINUES ON SUNDAY
AS COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE WINTER SEASON REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND MODIFYING A BIT AS IT DOES SO. BUT AFTER A FRIGID
START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ZERO. WINDS
WILL STILL BE BRISK ENOUGH AT 10-15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO
PRODUCE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES OF 30 TO 35 BELOW DURING THE
MORNING. WINDS WILL SLACKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH APPROACH OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT
IN THE WIND CHILLS. WHILE IT WILL BE A BITTER COLD DAY...WE SHOULD
SEE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. COLD AIR TEMPERATURES AND WARM WATERS OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN MAY RESULT IN STEAM CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OFF THE LAKE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OF VERMONT. ELSEWHERE...DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SUBZERO READINGS AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE
EAST COAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER IN
THE DAY...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA DUE WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 449 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE
RAPIDLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT
OF LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND RACES NORTHEAST WITH
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TRACK OF ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS AND THE RESULTING PTYPE AND AMOUNTS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS TRACKS SURFACE LOW JUST TO OUR EAST...CROSSING
NEW HAMPSHIRE ON TUESDAY...WHILE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FAVOR A MORE
WESTERN TRACK UP THROUGH NEW YORK STATE. HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO GFS
SOLUTION...WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH WPC THINKING AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PERIOD OF
GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT. REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION...PTYPE MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY SNOW. DURING TUESDAY HOWEVER...ENOUGH WARMING
EXPECTED FOR A CHANGE TO MIXED PRECIP OR EVEN RAIN...DEPENDING ON
EVENTUAL LOW TRACK. QPF MAY REACH 1 TO PERHAPS EVEN 2 INCHES...SO
POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...RAIN OR
MIXED PCPN.

SYSTEM EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PCPN TAPERING
TO SNOW SHOWERS. CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY WITH
UPPER TROUGH OVER REGION AND DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT MOVING
THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO DRIER AND COLDER WEATHER
FOR THURSDAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND
20S. NEXT SHORTWAVE IN FAST FLOW ALOFT APPROACHES FRIDAY
HOWEVER...BRINGING CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...EXPECT A SHORT-DURATION (AN HOUR OR LESS)
VISIBILITY DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR IN SNOW SQUALLS WITH A GUSTY WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST. SEE TAFS FOR SPECIFIC TIMING, BUT
IS GENERALLY IN THE 06-08Z WINDOW. MORE RAPID CLEARING TOWARD VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 08Z, THOUGH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COASTAL
STORM WILL SPREAD HEAVY MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION NWD INTO THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD IFR AVIATION WX CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR FEBRUARY 13TH FOR OUR CLIMATE
SITES...
BTV -25 1967
MPV -29 1967
MSS -33 1967
SJBV1 -30 1967
MMNV1 -32 1967

COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR VALENTINES DAY (FEBRUARY
14TH)...
BTV -2 1979
MPV -4 1979
MSS -3 1987
SJBV1 +2 1987
MMNV1 -19 1979

COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR VALENTINES DAY (FEBRUARY
14TH)...
BTV -19 1987
MPV -19 2003
MSS -29 2003
SJBV1 -28 2003
MMNV1 -30 1979

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ001>012-
     016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ026>031-034-
     035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NEILES
CLIMATE...LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KALY 130930
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
430 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE COLDEST AIR MASS
OF THE SEASON WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS. A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WIND CHILL WARNINGS BEGIN THIS MORNING OR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA.

ARCTIC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGH
SUNRISE. NOT MUCH SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MOHAWK AND
SCHOHARIE VALLEYS. THESE COULD MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT MAY NOT HOLD TOGETHER BY THE TIME THEY
REACH THE HUDSON VALLEY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN A
HALF INCH THIS MORNING. A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRUSH
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SCHOHARIE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON BUT
WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME SINCE MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL NY.

THE MAIN STORY WILL BE A FRIGID ARCTIC AIR MASS BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STEADILY
INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS MAY REACH
OR EXCEED 45 MPH IN SOME SPOTS...AND WILL MENTION IN THE WIND
CHILL STATEMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE TO
TUMBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST BRUTAL COLD TODAY WILL BE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO BY DAY/S END. WIND CHILLS VALUES WILL BE DANGEROUSLY
LOW BY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY -20 TO -35.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIND CHILL WARNING CONTINUES TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS WHEN THE WORST OF THE BRUTALLY
COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL VALUES WILL OCCUR. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAKING CONDITIONS
LIFE THREATENING TO THOSE OUTDOORS FOR ANY APPRECIABLE AMOUNT OF
TIME. ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND -10 TO -20 FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA...EXCEPT -20 TO -30 ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. DAILY RECORD MINIMUM TEMPS COULD BE BROKEN IN MANY
LOCATIONS...INCLUDING THE ALBANY AREA SUNDAY MORNING. COMBINED
WITH THE EXTREME COLD...PERSISTENT WIND WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS
TO LIFE THREATENING WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN -25 AND -45.

A SIGNIFICANT UPPER AIR RECORD COULD BE BROKEN AT ALBANY THIS
EVENING AT 7 PM OR 00Z WHEN OUR BALLOON IS LAUNCHED. THE CURRENT
RECORD COLD 850 MB TEMPERATURE IS -30.5 C SET BACK ON 4 JANUARY
1981 AND ON 18 JANUARY 1982. FORECAST MODELS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST BETWEEN -30 AND -32 C FOR 00Z THIS EVENING.

DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS AND EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE WIND WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES OF ONLY AROUND ZERO TO 10
ABOVE ARE FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE IT WILL STILL BE VERY
COLD...THE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO ABATE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.

VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT TOO...BUT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AT LEAST WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER SO WIND
CHILLS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. STILL...MOST AREAS WILL HAVE
MINIMUM TEMPS IN THE ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE. TEMPERATURES MAY
ACTUALLY START TO RISE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BARELY BE NOTICEABLE DUE TO THE FRIGID
TEMPERATURES.

MONDAY WILL START OUT DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS
SHOULD START TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
STARTS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. SNOW MAY DEVELOP BEFORE SUNSET
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY. TIMING OF ONSET
STILL IN QUESTION DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES. REGARDLESS...THE BULK
OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AS AN OPEN WAVE BUT POTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN STORM TRACK...MODELS VARY ON PTYPES. INITIALLY IT
SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW MONDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...AS WARMER AIR ALOFT
POTENTIALLY MOVES IN...SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET BEFORE
SUNRISE TUESDAY ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION POTENTIAL HAZARDS FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE SYSTEM EVOLVES ON
TUESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION TRANSITION ZONE TUESDAY MORNING COULD
BE BROAD WITH A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND A BRIEF CHANCE FOR
FREEZING RAIN IN THE ZONE BETWEEN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...CAPITAL
DISTRICT... BERKSHIRES...SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THERE IS A CHANCE THE ZONE COULD SHIFT FURTHER SE OR
NW...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
SEGMENT AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION. BASED ON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE...ALL AREAS SHOULD TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN OR MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW...OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN BERKSHIRES . IN THE COLDER
AREAS...THE TRANSITION WILL BE SLOWER...MORE TOWARD LATE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH SOME MID
40S POSSIBLE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW
AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH COLD ADVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CHAOTIC UPPER PATTERN WITH MEAN UPPER
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND MORE UPPER IMPULSES ROTATING
THROUGH THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.
UPPER ENERGY BASED IN NORTHERN STREAM EXPECTED TO HAVE LESS
MOISTURE BUT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40...SOME
UPPER 20S NORTHERN AREAS.

DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGHS IN
THE 20S TO AROUND 30...BUT SOME TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. MORE
UPPER ENERGY APPROACHES FRIDAY WITH STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION.
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND TYPE A BIT UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT...BUT
SOME CONSENSUS IN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE FOR PATCHY LIGHT SNOW
TRANSITIONING TO A LIGHT MIX FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BEYOND. HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE 30S...AROUND 30 IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLIPPER LOW WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...AS THE ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH.
A NW FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY INTO
THE NIGHT PERIOD WITH GUSTY WINDS.

THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
OR A SQUALL FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH...IMPACTING KGFL/KALB/KPSF
BETWEEN 04Z-09Z. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED IN COVERAGE DUE TO VERY LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. A VCSH
WAS USED AT KALB/KPSF/KGFL THROUGH ABOUT 10-11Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE DOMINATE...ASIDE FOR SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS/ISOLD SQUALLS ESPECIALLY AT KPSF/KGFL. CIGS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 4-9 KFT AGL RANGE. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AFTER DAYBREAK...SOME LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS OR MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL LINGER. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE FRIGID
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PM.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4-10 KTS PRIOR TO
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BEFORE DAYBREAK...THEN VEER TO THE W TO NW AT 6-
12 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE
WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT LATE IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AT
12-20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING BUT WILL STILL BE
GUSTY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4-10 KTS PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT...THEN VEER TO THE W TO NW AT 6-12 KTS BEFORE DAYBREAK
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE
OF THE ARCTIC FRONT LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AT
12-20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...SN...SLEET.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH BITTER COLD AIR IN PLACE...ICE COVERAGE ON RIVERS AND LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY.

HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT
ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF PRECIPITATION THAT
MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
STORM SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT COULD OCCUR. AT LEAST SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. AS
TEMPERATURES WARM BY TUESDAY MORNING...ANY FROZEN PRECIP MAY CHANGE
TO RAIN. IF THE THREAT OF MORE RAIN WERE TO MATERIALIZE...IT COULD
HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
THE GROUND WILL BE FULLY FROZEN BY THAT TIME...ALLOWING MUCH OF THE
RAIN TO BE RUNOFF IN AREAS THAT WILL NOT HAVE SNOWPACK. DETAILS WILL
BECOME MORE CERTAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO SUNDAY.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14...

     TEMP YEAR
ALB  -10  1987
POU  -14  1979
GFL  -24  2003
PSF  -12  1934

FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...

ALB  -13
POU   -7
GFL  -20
PSF  -14

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038-
     042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-064>066-083-
     084.
MA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
CLIMATE...JPV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 130921
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
421 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA...BRINGING
WITH IT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS.
MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN THE
COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE WINTER SEASON...WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS THROUGH SUNDAY. A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
MONDAY...WITH A STRONG AND MOISTURE LADEN STORM SYSTEM BRINGING
POTENTIAL MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 420 AM EST SATURDAY...ARCTIC FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE SEEN SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS
THE FRONT PASSES. ALSO SEEING WINDS TURN TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA
THE REST OF TODAY...AND SHOW WILL BE ENDING OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY...THEREFORE DAYTIME MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ACHIEVED EARLY...THEN SEE DROPPING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN NEW YORK
HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW ZERO IN SOME PLACES. SAME SCENARIO FOR
TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO RIDGE OVER THE
AREA...COLD NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. WIDESPREAD BELOW ZERO
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...NEGATIVE TEENS AND TWENTIES. WE CONTINUE
WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BOTH OF THESE PERIODS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO AROUND -30C SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW SITTING OVER THE
REGION, DEPARTING MOISTURE AND DECREASING CLOUDS EXPECT AIR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO 15 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. WIND SPEEDS
OF 8-15KTS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES -30 TO -40 DEGREES
WITH COLDER WIND CHILLS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY WITH
GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO
AROUND -20C ON SUNDAY AND A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT AS
RIDGING OCCURS ALOFT AND THE SURFACE RIDGE STARTS TO SLIDE EAST,
PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO MODERATING LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW.

CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY, COLD AIR TEMPERATURES AND WARM WATERS OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN MAY RESULT IN TEA KETTLING STEAM CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE LAKE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. BUFKIT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING BOUTS OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT BTV DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ELSEWHERE COLD
BY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS WITH DECREASING
WINDS. SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAY NIGHT...REMAINING BELOW ZERO.

MONDAY CONTINUES TO SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE
SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES NEARING NORMAL IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY... MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK DIGGING
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT FORMS LATE
MONDAY...TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. THERE
CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE LOW TRACK AND RESULTING
PTYPE AND AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. 12Z GFS TRACKS SURFACE
LOW JUST TO OUR EAST...CROSSING NH ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS
ENSEMBLES MEAN SIMILAR WITH THE LOW TRACKING OVER VT/EASTERN VT.
12Z ECWMF SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUN, KEEPING A MORE WESTERLY TRACK
WITH THE LOW MOVING IN THE WESTERN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT.

MODEL SIMILARITIES...PRECIP MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST MONDAY NIGHT IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. PWAT
ANOMALIES IN EXCESS OF 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL RESULT
IN STORM TOTAL QPF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES. ANY WARM AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM HOLDS OFF TO THE SOUTH THROUGH AROUND 12Z
TUESDAY...MEANING PRECIP WILL START AS SNOW.

MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL AFFECT PTYPE. GFS WITH THE MORE EASTERLY
TRACK KEEPS COLD AIR ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND WARMER AIR IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND AREAS EAST. WHILE 850MB AND 925MB ZERO DEGREE
LINES ARE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO EACH OTHER THROUGHOUT THE EVENT ON
THE GFS...SOME WINTRY MIX/ICING IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AS ARCTIC
TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THIS EVENT WILL LEAD TO FROZEN GROUND. ECWMF
ON THE OTHER HAND MOVES THE WARM AIR WEST OF THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY...BUT PERSISTENT NE FLOW DOWN INTO THE VALLEY WILL KEEP LOW
LEVEL/NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES AOB FREEZING. THIS COULD BE THE
SET UP FOR A SIGNIFICANT ICING EVENT.

SO WITH ALL OF THESE FACTORS YET TO BE RESOLVED BY THE MODELS
WHAT WE CAN EXPECT IS A VERY MOIST STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
CENTRAL LOW PRESSURE FALLING INTO THE 970-980MB RANGE AS IT PASSES
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL START AS SNOW WITH PORTIONS OF THE AREA SEEING WINTRY
MIX DURING THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS MAY
ALSO BE AN ISSUE AS SOUTHERLY JET AT 850MB WITH SPEEDS GREATER
THAN 50KTS ENTERS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY STRENGTHENS DURING THE
DAY. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS STORM, STRONG NW WINDS TAKE OVER AT
30-45KTS.

WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL BE DEPARTING NORTH AND EAST WITH SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...EXPECT A SHORT-DURATION (AN HOUR OR LESS)
VISIBILITY DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR IN SNOW SQUALLS WITH A GUSTY WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST. SEE TAFS FOR SPECIFIC TIMING, BUT
IS GENERALLY IN THE 06-08Z WINDOW. MORE RAPID CLEARING TOWARD VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 08Z, THOUGH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COASTAL
STORM WILL SPREAD HEAVY MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION NWD INTO THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD IFR AVIATION WX CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR FEBRUARY 13TH FOR OUR CLIMATE
SITES...
BTV -25 1967
MPV -29 1967
MSS -33 1967
SJBV1 -30 1967
MMNV1 -32 1967

COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR VALENTINES DAY (FEBRUARY
14TH)...
BTV -2 1979
MPV -4 1979
MSS -3 1987
SJBV1 +2 1987
MMNV1 -19 1979

COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR VALENTINES DAY (FEBRUARY
14TH)...
BTV -19 1987
MPV -19 2003
MSS -29 2003
SJBV1 -28 2003
MMNV1 -30 1979

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ001>012-
     016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ026>031-034-
     035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...NEILES
CLIMATE...LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KBTV 130921
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
421 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA...BRINGING
WITH IT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS.
MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN THE
COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE WINTER SEASON...WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS THROUGH SUNDAY. A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
MONDAY...WITH A STRONG AND MOISTURE LADEN STORM SYSTEM BRINGING
POTENTIAL MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 420 AM EST SATURDAY...ARCTIC FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE SEEN SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS
THE FRONT PASSES. ALSO SEEING WINDS TURN TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA
THE REST OF TODAY...AND SHOW WILL BE ENDING OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY...THEREFORE DAYTIME MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ACHIEVED EARLY...THEN SEE DROPPING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN NEW YORK
HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW ZERO IN SOME PLACES. SAME SCENARIO FOR
TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO RIDGE OVER THE
AREA...COLD NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. WIDESPREAD BELOW ZERO
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...NEGATIVE TEENS AND TWENTIES. WE CONTINUE
WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BOTH OF THESE PERIODS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO AROUND -30C SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW SITTING OVER THE
REGION, DEPARTING MOISTURE AND DECREASING CLOUDS EXPECT AIR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO 15 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. WIND SPEEDS
OF 8-15KTS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES -30 TO -40 DEGREES
WITH COLDER WIND CHILLS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY WITH
GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO
AROUND -20C ON SUNDAY AND A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT AS
RIDGING OCCURS ALOFT AND THE SURFACE RIDGE STARTS TO SLIDE EAST,
PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO MODERATING LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW.

CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY, COLD AIR TEMPERATURES AND WARM WATERS OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN MAY RESULT IN TEA KETTLING STEAM CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE LAKE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. BUFKIT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING BOUTS OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT BTV DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ELSEWHERE COLD
BY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS WITH DECREASING
WINDS. SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAY NIGHT...REMAINING BELOW ZERO.

MONDAY CONTINUES TO SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE
SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES NEARING NORMAL IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY... MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK DIGGING
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT FORMS LATE
MONDAY...TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. THERE
CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE LOW TRACK AND RESULTING
PTYPE AND AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. 12Z GFS TRACKS SURFACE
LOW JUST TO OUR EAST...CROSSING NH ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS
ENSEMBLES MEAN SIMILAR WITH THE LOW TRACKING OVER VT/EASTERN VT.
12Z ECWMF SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUN, KEEPING A MORE WESTERLY TRACK
WITH THE LOW MOVING IN THE WESTERN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT.

MODEL SIMILARITIES...PRECIP MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST MONDAY NIGHT IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. PWAT
ANOMALIES IN EXCESS OF 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL RESULT
IN STORM TOTAL QPF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES. ANY WARM AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM HOLDS OFF TO THE SOUTH THROUGH AROUND 12Z
TUESDAY...MEANING PRECIP WILL START AS SNOW.

MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL AFFECT PTYPE. GFS WITH THE MORE EASTERLY
TRACK KEEPS COLD AIR ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND WARMER AIR IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND AREAS EAST. WHILE 850MB AND 925MB ZERO DEGREE
LINES ARE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO EACH OTHER THROUGHOUT THE EVENT ON
THE GFS...SOME WINTRY MIX/ICING IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AS ARCTIC
TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THIS EVENT WILL LEAD TO FROZEN GROUND. ECWMF
ON THE OTHER HAND MOVES THE WARM AIR WEST OF THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY...BUT PERSISTENT NE FLOW DOWN INTO THE VALLEY WILL KEEP LOW
LEVEL/NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES AOB FREEZING. THIS COULD BE THE
SET UP FOR A SIGNIFICANT ICING EVENT.

SO WITH ALL OF THESE FACTORS YET TO BE RESOLVED BY THE MODELS
WHAT WE CAN EXPECT IS A VERY MOIST STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
CENTRAL LOW PRESSURE FALLING INTO THE 970-980MB RANGE AS IT PASSES
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL START AS SNOW WITH PORTIONS OF THE AREA SEEING WINTRY
MIX DURING THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS MAY
ALSO BE AN ISSUE AS SOUTHERLY JET AT 850MB WITH SPEEDS GREATER
THAN 50KTS ENTERS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY STRENGTHENS DURING THE
DAY. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS STORM, STRONG NW WINDS TAKE OVER AT
30-45KTS.

WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL BE DEPARTING NORTH AND EAST WITH SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...EXPECT A SHORT-DURATION (AN HOUR OR LESS)
VISIBILITY DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR IN SNOW SQUALLS WITH A GUSTY WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST. SEE TAFS FOR SPECIFIC TIMING, BUT
IS GENERALLY IN THE 06-08Z WINDOW. MORE RAPID CLEARING TOWARD VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 08Z, THOUGH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COASTAL
STORM WILL SPREAD HEAVY MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION NWD INTO THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD IFR AVIATION WX CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR FEBRUARY 13TH FOR OUR CLIMATE
SITES...
BTV -25 1967
MPV -29 1967
MSS -33 1967
SJBV1 -30 1967
MMNV1 -32 1967

COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR VALENTINES DAY (FEBRUARY
14TH)...
BTV -2 1979
MPV -4 1979
MSS -3 1987
SJBV1 +2 1987
MMNV1 -19 1979

COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR VALENTINES DAY (FEBRUARY
14TH)...
BTV -19 1987
MPV -19 2003
MSS -29 2003
SJBV1 -28 2003
MMNV1 -30 1979

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ001>012-
     016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ026>031-034-
     035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...NEILES
CLIMATE...LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 130921
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
421 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA...BRINGING
WITH IT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS.
MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN THE
COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE WINTER SEASON...WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS THROUGH SUNDAY. A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
MONDAY...WITH A STRONG AND MOISTURE LADEN STORM SYSTEM BRINGING
POTENTIAL MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 420 AM EST SATURDAY...ARCTIC FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE SEEN SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS
THE FRONT PASSES. ALSO SEEING WINDS TURN TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA
THE REST OF TODAY...AND SHOW WILL BE ENDING OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY...THEREFORE DAYTIME MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ACHIEVED EARLY...THEN SEE DROPPING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN NEW YORK
HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW ZERO IN SOME PLACES. SAME SCENARIO FOR
TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO RIDGE OVER THE
AREA...COLD NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. WIDESPREAD BELOW ZERO
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...NEGATIVE TEENS AND TWENTIES. WE CONTINUE
WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BOTH OF THESE PERIODS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO AROUND -30C SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW SITTING OVER THE
REGION, DEPARTING MOISTURE AND DECREASING CLOUDS EXPECT AIR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO 15 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. WIND SPEEDS
OF 8-15KTS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES -30 TO -40 DEGREES
WITH COLDER WIND CHILLS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY WITH
GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO
AROUND -20C ON SUNDAY AND A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT AS
RIDGING OCCURS ALOFT AND THE SURFACE RIDGE STARTS TO SLIDE EAST,
PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO MODERATING LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW.

CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY, COLD AIR TEMPERATURES AND WARM WATERS OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN MAY RESULT IN TEA KETTLING STEAM CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE LAKE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. BUFKIT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING BOUTS OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT BTV DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ELSEWHERE COLD
BY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS WITH DECREASING
WINDS. SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAY NIGHT...REMAINING BELOW ZERO.

MONDAY CONTINUES TO SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE
SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES NEARING NORMAL IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY... MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK DIGGING
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT FORMS LATE
MONDAY...TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. THERE
CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE LOW TRACK AND RESULTING
PTYPE AND AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. 12Z GFS TRACKS SURFACE
LOW JUST TO OUR EAST...CROSSING NH ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS
ENSEMBLES MEAN SIMILAR WITH THE LOW TRACKING OVER VT/EASTERN VT.
12Z ECWMF SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUN, KEEPING A MORE WESTERLY TRACK
WITH THE LOW MOVING IN THE WESTERN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT.

MODEL SIMILARITIES...PRECIP MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST MONDAY NIGHT IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. PWAT
ANOMALIES IN EXCESS OF 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL RESULT
IN STORM TOTAL QPF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES. ANY WARM AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM HOLDS OFF TO THE SOUTH THROUGH AROUND 12Z
TUESDAY...MEANING PRECIP WILL START AS SNOW.

MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL AFFECT PTYPE. GFS WITH THE MORE EASTERLY
TRACK KEEPS COLD AIR ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND WARMER AIR IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND AREAS EAST. WHILE 850MB AND 925MB ZERO DEGREE
LINES ARE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO EACH OTHER THROUGHOUT THE EVENT ON
THE GFS...SOME WINTRY MIX/ICING IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AS ARCTIC
TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THIS EVENT WILL LEAD TO FROZEN GROUND. ECWMF
ON THE OTHER HAND MOVES THE WARM AIR WEST OF THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY...BUT PERSISTENT NE FLOW DOWN INTO THE VALLEY WILL KEEP LOW
LEVEL/NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES AOB FREEZING. THIS COULD BE THE
SET UP FOR A SIGNIFICANT ICING EVENT.

SO WITH ALL OF THESE FACTORS YET TO BE RESOLVED BY THE MODELS
WHAT WE CAN EXPECT IS A VERY MOIST STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
CENTRAL LOW PRESSURE FALLING INTO THE 970-980MB RANGE AS IT PASSES
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL START AS SNOW WITH PORTIONS OF THE AREA SEEING WINTRY
MIX DURING THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS MAY
ALSO BE AN ISSUE AS SOUTHERLY JET AT 850MB WITH SPEEDS GREATER
THAN 50KTS ENTERS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY STRENGTHENS DURING THE
DAY. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS STORM, STRONG NW WINDS TAKE OVER AT
30-45KTS.

WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL BE DEPARTING NORTH AND EAST WITH SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...EXPECT A SHORT-DURATION (AN HOUR OR LESS)
VISIBILITY DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR IN SNOW SQUALLS WITH A GUSTY WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST. SEE TAFS FOR SPECIFIC TIMING, BUT
IS GENERALLY IN THE 06-08Z WINDOW. MORE RAPID CLEARING TOWARD VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 08Z, THOUGH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COASTAL
STORM WILL SPREAD HEAVY MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION NWD INTO THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD IFR AVIATION WX CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR FEBRUARY 13TH FOR OUR CLIMATE
SITES...
BTV -25 1967
MPV -29 1967
MSS -33 1967
SJBV1 -30 1967
MMNV1 -32 1967

COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR VALENTINES DAY (FEBRUARY
14TH)...
BTV -2 1979
MPV -4 1979
MSS -3 1987
SJBV1 +2 1987
MMNV1 -19 1979

COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR VALENTINES DAY (FEBRUARY
14TH)...
BTV -19 1987
MPV -19 2003
MSS -29 2003
SJBV1 -28 2003
MMNV1 -30 1979

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ001>012-
     016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ026>031-034-
     035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...NEILES
CLIMATE...LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 130600
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
100 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY
NEW YORK THROUGH THIS EVENING...IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
ARCTIC FRONT FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS. MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR
MASS OF THE WINTER SEASON...WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS
SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT...AND INTO SUNDAY. A MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MONDAY...WITH A STRONG AND MOISTURE LADEN
STORM SYSTEM BRINGING POTENTIAL MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1241 AM EST SATURDAY...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY T/TD
TRENDS NEEDED AS OF 900 PM WITH REST OF FORECAST STILL IN GOOD
SHAPE. DID TREND AWAY FROM 00/01Z LAMP TEMP/DEWPOINT GUIDANCE
HOWEVER AS IT APPEARS TO WARM AND CLOUDY IN MOST SPOTS BY SUNRISE.
WE`VE RECEIVED REPORTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
HALF OF ST LAWRENCE COUNTY THIS EVENING, AND IF YOU BELIEVE KTYX
DUAL-POL PCPN ESTIMATES A FEW AREAS NEAR THE JEFFERSON COUNTY
BORDER NEAR GOUVERNEUR MAY HAVE RECEIVED SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS.
WITH ARCTIC BOUNDARY NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA LAKE SNOWS WILL
SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH JUST SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THIS AREA
OVERNIGHT. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE DACKS INTO NORTHERN VT STILL
EXPECTING A BRIEF 1-2 HOUR WINDOW OF STEADIER MORE PERSISTENT SHSN
ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF
A DUSTING TO PERHAPS 2 INCHES IN THE 10 PM TO 3 AM TIME FRAME.
HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 315 PM FRIDAY...
MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF SHARP AND WELL-DEFINED ARCTIC
BNDRY MOVING SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OTTAWA VALLEY AND
GEORGIAN BAY IN ONTARIO. THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW- LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EMANATING OFF
LAKE ONTARIO TO REACH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE THESE BANDS LEADING TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (3-7")
LOCALLY ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY - ESPECIALLY SRN/WRN SECTIONS.
HAVE CONTINUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 06Z FOR POTENTIAL
SLOW TRAVEL CONDITIONS OWING TO SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW
VSBY.

THE ARCTIC FRONT ITSELF IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW BAND OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND SQUALLS, PER OTTAWA RADAR. THE MESOSCALE
MODELS...INCLUDING BTV- 4KM AND 12KM WRF...AND BTV SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER...SUGGEST THIS BAND OF ACTIVITY WILL MANAGE TO SHIFT
ESEWD ACROSS NRN NY BETWEEN 3-06Z...AND THROUGH THE BTV AREA
06-08Z. MAY SEE SOME DECREASE EAST OF THE GREENS...BUT MAINTAINED
CHC -SW EASTERN SECTIONS LATE. A QUICK DUSTING TO 2" OF VERY DRY
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN TIME OF DAY/WEEK...LIGHT TRAFFIC
VOLUME AND TEMPS ALREADY WELL BELOW FREEZING SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
IMPACT FROM ANY SNOW SQUALL ACTIVITY.

LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE VERY STRONG BEHIND THE
BNDRY...CURRENTLY SEEING MID-DAY READINGS -20F NORTH OF LAKE
HURON...AND 850MB TEMPS ARE -25C TO -32C. THE LOW-LEVEL CAA
ARRIVES FIRST IN NRN NY...DRIVING DAYBREAK TEMPS DOWN TO -10 TO
-15F FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. WON/T BE QUITE
AS COLD ACROSS VT (+2F AT BTV 12Z AND 5-10F EAST OF THE
GREENS)...BUT NW WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL
RESULT IN VERY LOW WIND CHILLS.

WIND CHILLS BECOME MORE SEVERE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY -
ESPECIALLY ACROSS VT - WITH NEAR STEADY TO FALLING TEMPS NEAR
ZERO. WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO ALL DAY SATURDAY ACROSS NRN NY...WITH
HIGHS -5F TO -10F IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NRN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS. WIND CHILLS 25 TO 35 BELOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN
NY. HAVE MAINTAINED WIND CHILL WARNINGS...WHICH TAKE EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW STRAY FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY...BUT GENERALLY DRY AND BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. MAY SEE A
FEW STRATOCU DUE TO COLD AIR ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...BUT NW RATHER THAN N WINDS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
FETCH/EXTENT OF ANY LAKE-INDUCED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO AROUND -30C SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW SITTING OVER THE
REGION, DEPARTING MOISTURE AND DECREASING CLOUDS EXPECT AIR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO 15 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. WIND SPEEDS OF
8-15KTS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES -30 TO -40 DEGREES WITH
COLDER WIND CHILLS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY WITH
GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO
AROUND -20C ON SUNDAY AND A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT AS
RIDGING OCCURS ALOFT AND THE SURFACE RIDGE STARTS TO SLIDE EAST,
PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO MODERATING LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW.

CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY, COLD AIR TEMPERATURES AND WARM WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN MAY RESULT IN TEA KETTLING STEAM CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OFF THE LAKE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AT BTV DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ELSEWHERE COLD BY BENIGN
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE NEGATIVE
SINGLE DIGITS TO POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS WITH DECREASING WINDS.
SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY
NIGHT...REMAINING BELOW ZERO.

MONDAY CONTINUES TO SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE SLIDE
INTO THE ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES NEARING NORMAL IN THE MID TEENS TO
MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK DIGGING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
THAT FORMS LATE MONDAY...TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE. THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE LOW TRACK AND
RESULTING PTYPE AND AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. 12Z GFS TRACKS
SURFACE LOW JUST TO OUR EAST...CROSSING NH ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
GFS ENSEMBLES MEAN SIMILAR WITH THE LOW TRACKING OVER VT/EASTERN VT.
12Z ECWMF SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUN, KEEPING A MORE WESTERLY TRACK
WITH THE LOW MOVING IN THE WESTERN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODEL SIMILARITIES...PRECIP MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST MONDAY NIGHT IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. PWAT ANOMALIES
IN EXCESS OF 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL RESULT IN STORM
TOTAL QPF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES. ANY WARM AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM HOLDS OFF TO THE SOUTH THROUGH AROUND 12Z TUESDAY...MEANING
PRECIP WILL START AS SNOW.

MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL AFFECT PTYPE. GFS WITH THE MORE EASTERLY
TRACK KEEPS COLD AIR ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND WARMER AIR IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND AREAS EAST. WHILE 850MB AND 925MB ZERO DEGREE
LINES ARE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO EACH OTHER THROUGHOUT THE EVENT ON
THE GFS...SOME WINTRY MIX/ICING IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AS ARCTIC
TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THIS EVENT WILL LEAD TO FROZEN GROUND. ECWMF
ON THE OTHER HAND MOVES THE WARM AIR WEST OF THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY...BUT PERSISTENT NE FLOW DOWN INTO THE VALLEY WILL KEEP LOW
LEVEL/NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES AOB FREEZING. THIS COULD BE THE SET
UP FOR A SIGNIFICANT ICING EVENT.

SO WITH ALL OF THESE FACTORS YET TO BE RESOLVED BY THE MODELS WHAT
WE CAN EXPECT IS A VERY MOIST STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
CENTRAL LOW PRESSURE FALLING INTO THE 970-980MB RANGE AS IT PASSES
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL START AS SNOW WITH PORTIONS OF THE AREA SEEING WINTRY
MIX DURING THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO
BE AN ISSUE AS SOUTHERLY JET AT 850MB WITH SPEEDS GREATER THAN 50KTS
ENTERS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY STRENGTHENS DURING THE DAY. ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS STORM, STRONG NW WINDS TAKE OVER AT 30-45KTS.

WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL BE DEPARTING NORTH AND EAST WITH SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...EXPECT A SHORT-DURATION (AN HOUR OR LESS)
VISIBILITY DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR IN SNOW SQUALLS WITH A GUSTY WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST. SEE TAFS FOR SPECIFIC TIMING, BUT
IS GENERALLY IN THE 06-08Z WINDOW. MORE RAPID CLEARING TOWARD VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 08Z, THOUGH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COASTAL
STORM WILL SPREAD HEAVY MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION NWD INTO THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD IFR AVIATION WX CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR FEBRUARY 13TH FOR OUR CLIMATE
SITES...
BTV -25 1967
MPV -29 1967
MSS -33 1967
SJBV1 -30 1967
MMNV1 -32 1967

COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR VALENTINES DAY (FEBRUARY
14TH)...
BTV -2 1979
MPV -4 1979
MSS -3 1987
SJBV1 +2 1987
MMNV1 -19 1979

COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR VALENTINES DAY (FEBRUARY
14TH)...
BTV -19 1987
MPV -19 2003
MSS -29 2003
SJBV1 -28 2003
MMNV1 -30 1979

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ001>012-
     016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ026>031-034-
     035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG/NEILES
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO
CLIMATE...LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KBTV 130600
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
100 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY
NEW YORK THROUGH THIS EVENING...IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
ARCTIC FRONT FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS. MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR
MASS OF THE WINTER SEASON...WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS
SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT...AND INTO SUNDAY. A MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MONDAY...WITH A STRONG AND MOISTURE LADEN
STORM SYSTEM BRINGING POTENTIAL MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1241 AM EST SATURDAY...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY T/TD
TRENDS NEEDED AS OF 900 PM WITH REST OF FORECAST STILL IN GOOD
SHAPE. DID TREND AWAY FROM 00/01Z LAMP TEMP/DEWPOINT GUIDANCE
HOWEVER AS IT APPEARS TO WARM AND CLOUDY IN MOST SPOTS BY SUNRISE.
WE`VE RECEIVED REPORTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
HALF OF ST LAWRENCE COUNTY THIS EVENING, AND IF YOU BELIEVE KTYX
DUAL-POL PCPN ESTIMATES A FEW AREAS NEAR THE JEFFERSON COUNTY
BORDER NEAR GOUVERNEUR MAY HAVE RECEIVED SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS.
WITH ARCTIC BOUNDARY NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA LAKE SNOWS WILL
SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH JUST SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THIS AREA
OVERNIGHT. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE DACKS INTO NORTHERN VT STILL
EXPECTING A BRIEF 1-2 HOUR WINDOW OF STEADIER MORE PERSISTENT SHSN
ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF
A DUSTING TO PERHAPS 2 INCHES IN THE 10 PM TO 3 AM TIME FRAME.
HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 315 PM FRIDAY...
MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF SHARP AND WELL-DEFINED ARCTIC
BNDRY MOVING SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OTTAWA VALLEY AND
GEORGIAN BAY IN ONTARIO. THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW- LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EMANATING OFF
LAKE ONTARIO TO REACH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE THESE BANDS LEADING TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (3-7")
LOCALLY ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY - ESPECIALLY SRN/WRN SECTIONS.
HAVE CONTINUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 06Z FOR POTENTIAL
SLOW TRAVEL CONDITIONS OWING TO SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW
VSBY.

THE ARCTIC FRONT ITSELF IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW BAND OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND SQUALLS, PER OTTAWA RADAR. THE MESOSCALE
MODELS...INCLUDING BTV- 4KM AND 12KM WRF...AND BTV SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER...SUGGEST THIS BAND OF ACTIVITY WILL MANAGE TO SHIFT
ESEWD ACROSS NRN NY BETWEEN 3-06Z...AND THROUGH THE BTV AREA
06-08Z. MAY SEE SOME DECREASE EAST OF THE GREENS...BUT MAINTAINED
CHC -SW EASTERN SECTIONS LATE. A QUICK DUSTING TO 2" OF VERY DRY
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN TIME OF DAY/WEEK...LIGHT TRAFFIC
VOLUME AND TEMPS ALREADY WELL BELOW FREEZING SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
IMPACT FROM ANY SNOW SQUALL ACTIVITY.

LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE VERY STRONG BEHIND THE
BNDRY...CURRENTLY SEEING MID-DAY READINGS -20F NORTH OF LAKE
HURON...AND 850MB TEMPS ARE -25C TO -32C. THE LOW-LEVEL CAA
ARRIVES FIRST IN NRN NY...DRIVING DAYBREAK TEMPS DOWN TO -10 TO
-15F FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. WON/T BE QUITE
AS COLD ACROSS VT (+2F AT BTV 12Z AND 5-10F EAST OF THE
GREENS)...BUT NW WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL
RESULT IN VERY LOW WIND CHILLS.

WIND CHILLS BECOME MORE SEVERE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY -
ESPECIALLY ACROSS VT - WITH NEAR STEADY TO FALLING TEMPS NEAR
ZERO. WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO ALL DAY SATURDAY ACROSS NRN NY...WITH
HIGHS -5F TO -10F IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NRN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS. WIND CHILLS 25 TO 35 BELOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN
NY. HAVE MAINTAINED WIND CHILL WARNINGS...WHICH TAKE EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW STRAY FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY...BUT GENERALLY DRY AND BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. MAY SEE A
FEW STRATOCU DUE TO COLD AIR ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...BUT NW RATHER THAN N WINDS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
FETCH/EXTENT OF ANY LAKE-INDUCED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO AROUND -30C SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW SITTING OVER THE
REGION, DEPARTING MOISTURE AND DECREASING CLOUDS EXPECT AIR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO 15 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. WIND SPEEDS OF
8-15KTS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES -30 TO -40 DEGREES WITH
COLDER WIND CHILLS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY WITH
GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO
AROUND -20C ON SUNDAY AND A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT AS
RIDGING OCCURS ALOFT AND THE SURFACE RIDGE STARTS TO SLIDE EAST,
PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO MODERATING LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW.

CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY, COLD AIR TEMPERATURES AND WARM WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN MAY RESULT IN TEA KETTLING STEAM CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OFF THE LAKE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AT BTV DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ELSEWHERE COLD BY BENIGN
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE NEGATIVE
SINGLE DIGITS TO POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS WITH DECREASING WINDS.
SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY
NIGHT...REMAINING BELOW ZERO.

MONDAY CONTINUES TO SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE SLIDE
INTO THE ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES NEARING NORMAL IN THE MID TEENS TO
MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK DIGGING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
THAT FORMS LATE MONDAY...TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE. THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE LOW TRACK AND
RESULTING PTYPE AND AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. 12Z GFS TRACKS
SURFACE LOW JUST TO OUR EAST...CROSSING NH ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
GFS ENSEMBLES MEAN SIMILAR WITH THE LOW TRACKING OVER VT/EASTERN VT.
12Z ECWMF SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUN, KEEPING A MORE WESTERLY TRACK
WITH THE LOW MOVING IN THE WESTERN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODEL SIMILARITIES...PRECIP MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST MONDAY NIGHT IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. PWAT ANOMALIES
IN EXCESS OF 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL RESULT IN STORM
TOTAL QPF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES. ANY WARM AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM HOLDS OFF TO THE SOUTH THROUGH AROUND 12Z TUESDAY...MEANING
PRECIP WILL START AS SNOW.

MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL AFFECT PTYPE. GFS WITH THE MORE EASTERLY
TRACK KEEPS COLD AIR ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND WARMER AIR IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND AREAS EAST. WHILE 850MB AND 925MB ZERO DEGREE
LINES ARE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO EACH OTHER THROUGHOUT THE EVENT ON
THE GFS...SOME WINTRY MIX/ICING IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AS ARCTIC
TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THIS EVENT WILL LEAD TO FROZEN GROUND. ECWMF
ON THE OTHER HAND MOVES THE WARM AIR WEST OF THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY...BUT PERSISTENT NE FLOW DOWN INTO THE VALLEY WILL KEEP LOW
LEVEL/NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES AOB FREEZING. THIS COULD BE THE SET
UP FOR A SIGNIFICANT ICING EVENT.

SO WITH ALL OF THESE FACTORS YET TO BE RESOLVED BY THE MODELS WHAT
WE CAN EXPECT IS A VERY MOIST STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
CENTRAL LOW PRESSURE FALLING INTO THE 970-980MB RANGE AS IT PASSES
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL START AS SNOW WITH PORTIONS OF THE AREA SEEING WINTRY
MIX DURING THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO
BE AN ISSUE AS SOUTHERLY JET AT 850MB WITH SPEEDS GREATER THAN 50KTS
ENTERS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY STRENGTHENS DURING THE DAY. ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS STORM, STRONG NW WINDS TAKE OVER AT 30-45KTS.

WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL BE DEPARTING NORTH AND EAST WITH SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...EXPECT A SHORT-DURATION (AN HOUR OR LESS)
VISIBILITY DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR IN SNOW SQUALLS WITH A GUSTY WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST. SEE TAFS FOR SPECIFIC TIMING, BUT
IS GENERALLY IN THE 06-08Z WINDOW. MORE RAPID CLEARING TOWARD VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 08Z, THOUGH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COASTAL
STORM WILL SPREAD HEAVY MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION NWD INTO THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD IFR AVIATION WX CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR FEBRUARY 13TH FOR OUR CLIMATE
SITES...
BTV -25 1967
MPV -29 1967
MSS -33 1967
SJBV1 -30 1967
MMNV1 -32 1967

COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR VALENTINES DAY (FEBRUARY
14TH)...
BTV -2 1979
MPV -4 1979
MSS -3 1987
SJBV1 +2 1987
MMNV1 -19 1979

COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR VALENTINES DAY (FEBRUARY
14TH)...
BTV -19 1987
MPV -19 2003
MSS -29 2003
SJBV1 -28 2003
MMNV1 -30 1979

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ001>012-
     016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ026>031-034-
     035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG/NEILES
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO
CLIMATE...LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 130600
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
100 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY
NEW YORK THROUGH THIS EVENING...IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
ARCTIC FRONT FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS. MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR
MASS OF THE WINTER SEASON...WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS
SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT...AND INTO SUNDAY. A MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MONDAY...WITH A STRONG AND MOISTURE LADEN
STORM SYSTEM BRINGING POTENTIAL MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1241 AM EST SATURDAY...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY T/TD
TRENDS NEEDED AS OF 900 PM WITH REST OF FORECAST STILL IN GOOD
SHAPE. DID TREND AWAY FROM 00/01Z LAMP TEMP/DEWPOINT GUIDANCE
HOWEVER AS IT APPEARS TO WARM AND CLOUDY IN MOST SPOTS BY SUNRISE.
WE`VE RECEIVED REPORTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
HALF OF ST LAWRENCE COUNTY THIS EVENING, AND IF YOU BELIEVE KTYX
DUAL-POL PCPN ESTIMATES A FEW AREAS NEAR THE JEFFERSON COUNTY
BORDER NEAR GOUVERNEUR MAY HAVE RECEIVED SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS.
WITH ARCTIC BOUNDARY NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA LAKE SNOWS WILL
SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH JUST SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THIS AREA
OVERNIGHT. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE DACKS INTO NORTHERN VT STILL
EXPECTING A BRIEF 1-2 HOUR WINDOW OF STEADIER MORE PERSISTENT SHSN
ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF
A DUSTING TO PERHAPS 2 INCHES IN THE 10 PM TO 3 AM TIME FRAME.
HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 315 PM FRIDAY...
MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF SHARP AND WELL-DEFINED ARCTIC
BNDRY MOVING SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OTTAWA VALLEY AND
GEORGIAN BAY IN ONTARIO. THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW- LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EMANATING OFF
LAKE ONTARIO TO REACH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE THESE BANDS LEADING TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (3-7")
LOCALLY ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY - ESPECIALLY SRN/WRN SECTIONS.
HAVE CONTINUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 06Z FOR POTENTIAL
SLOW TRAVEL CONDITIONS OWING TO SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW
VSBY.

THE ARCTIC FRONT ITSELF IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW BAND OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND SQUALLS, PER OTTAWA RADAR. THE MESOSCALE
MODELS...INCLUDING BTV- 4KM AND 12KM WRF...AND BTV SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER...SUGGEST THIS BAND OF ACTIVITY WILL MANAGE TO SHIFT
ESEWD ACROSS NRN NY BETWEEN 3-06Z...AND THROUGH THE BTV AREA
06-08Z. MAY SEE SOME DECREASE EAST OF THE GREENS...BUT MAINTAINED
CHC -SW EASTERN SECTIONS LATE. A QUICK DUSTING TO 2" OF VERY DRY
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN TIME OF DAY/WEEK...LIGHT TRAFFIC
VOLUME AND TEMPS ALREADY WELL BELOW FREEZING SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
IMPACT FROM ANY SNOW SQUALL ACTIVITY.

LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE VERY STRONG BEHIND THE
BNDRY...CURRENTLY SEEING MID-DAY READINGS -20F NORTH OF LAKE
HURON...AND 850MB TEMPS ARE -25C TO -32C. THE LOW-LEVEL CAA
ARRIVES FIRST IN NRN NY...DRIVING DAYBREAK TEMPS DOWN TO -10 TO
-15F FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. WON/T BE QUITE
AS COLD ACROSS VT (+2F AT BTV 12Z AND 5-10F EAST OF THE
GREENS)...BUT NW WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL
RESULT IN VERY LOW WIND CHILLS.

WIND CHILLS BECOME MORE SEVERE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY -
ESPECIALLY ACROSS VT - WITH NEAR STEADY TO FALLING TEMPS NEAR
ZERO. WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO ALL DAY SATURDAY ACROSS NRN NY...WITH
HIGHS -5F TO -10F IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NRN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS. WIND CHILLS 25 TO 35 BELOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN
NY. HAVE MAINTAINED WIND CHILL WARNINGS...WHICH TAKE EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW STRAY FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY...BUT GENERALLY DRY AND BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. MAY SEE A
FEW STRATOCU DUE TO COLD AIR ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...BUT NW RATHER THAN N WINDS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
FETCH/EXTENT OF ANY LAKE-INDUCED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO AROUND -30C SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW SITTING OVER THE
REGION, DEPARTING MOISTURE AND DECREASING CLOUDS EXPECT AIR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO 15 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. WIND SPEEDS OF
8-15KTS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES -30 TO -40 DEGREES WITH
COLDER WIND CHILLS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY WITH
GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO
AROUND -20C ON SUNDAY AND A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT AS
RIDGING OCCURS ALOFT AND THE SURFACE RIDGE STARTS TO SLIDE EAST,
PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO MODERATING LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW.

CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY, COLD AIR TEMPERATURES AND WARM WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN MAY RESULT IN TEA KETTLING STEAM CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OFF THE LAKE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AT BTV DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ELSEWHERE COLD BY BENIGN
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE NEGATIVE
SINGLE DIGITS TO POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS WITH DECREASING WINDS.
SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY
NIGHT...REMAINING BELOW ZERO.

MONDAY CONTINUES TO SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE SLIDE
INTO THE ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES NEARING NORMAL IN THE MID TEENS TO
MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK DIGGING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
THAT FORMS LATE MONDAY...TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE. THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE LOW TRACK AND
RESULTING PTYPE AND AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. 12Z GFS TRACKS
SURFACE LOW JUST TO OUR EAST...CROSSING NH ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
GFS ENSEMBLES MEAN SIMILAR WITH THE LOW TRACKING OVER VT/EASTERN VT.
12Z ECWMF SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUN, KEEPING A MORE WESTERLY TRACK
WITH THE LOW MOVING IN THE WESTERN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODEL SIMILARITIES...PRECIP MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST MONDAY NIGHT IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. PWAT ANOMALIES
IN EXCESS OF 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL RESULT IN STORM
TOTAL QPF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES. ANY WARM AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM HOLDS OFF TO THE SOUTH THROUGH AROUND 12Z TUESDAY...MEANING
PRECIP WILL START AS SNOW.

MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL AFFECT PTYPE. GFS WITH THE MORE EASTERLY
TRACK KEEPS COLD AIR ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND WARMER AIR IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND AREAS EAST. WHILE 850MB AND 925MB ZERO DEGREE
LINES ARE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO EACH OTHER THROUGHOUT THE EVENT ON
THE GFS...SOME WINTRY MIX/ICING IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AS ARCTIC
TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THIS EVENT WILL LEAD TO FROZEN GROUND. ECWMF
ON THE OTHER HAND MOVES THE WARM AIR WEST OF THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY...BUT PERSISTENT NE FLOW DOWN INTO THE VALLEY WILL KEEP LOW
LEVEL/NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES AOB FREEZING. THIS COULD BE THE SET
UP FOR A SIGNIFICANT ICING EVENT.

SO WITH ALL OF THESE FACTORS YET TO BE RESOLVED BY THE MODELS WHAT
WE CAN EXPECT IS A VERY MOIST STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
CENTRAL LOW PRESSURE FALLING INTO THE 970-980MB RANGE AS IT PASSES
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL START AS SNOW WITH PORTIONS OF THE AREA SEEING WINTRY
MIX DURING THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO
BE AN ISSUE AS SOUTHERLY JET AT 850MB WITH SPEEDS GREATER THAN 50KTS
ENTERS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY STRENGTHENS DURING THE DAY. ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS STORM, STRONG NW WINDS TAKE OVER AT 30-45KTS.

WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL BE DEPARTING NORTH AND EAST WITH SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...EXPECT A SHORT-DURATION (AN HOUR OR LESS)
VISIBILITY DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR IN SNOW SQUALLS WITH A GUSTY WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST. SEE TAFS FOR SPECIFIC TIMING, BUT
IS GENERALLY IN THE 06-08Z WINDOW. MORE RAPID CLEARING TOWARD VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 08Z, THOUGH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COASTAL
STORM WILL SPREAD HEAVY MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION NWD INTO THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD IFR AVIATION WX CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR FEBRUARY 13TH FOR OUR CLIMATE
SITES...
BTV -25 1967
MPV -29 1967
MSS -33 1967
SJBV1 -30 1967
MMNV1 -32 1967

COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR VALENTINES DAY (FEBRUARY
14TH)...
BTV -2 1979
MPV -4 1979
MSS -3 1987
SJBV1 +2 1987
MMNV1 -19 1979

COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR VALENTINES DAY (FEBRUARY
14TH)...
BTV -19 1987
MPV -19 2003
MSS -29 2003
SJBV1 -28 2003
MMNV1 -30 1979

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ001>012-
     016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ026>031-034-
     035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG/NEILES
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO
CLIMATE...LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KALY 130535
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1235 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. BEHIND THE ARCTIC
COLD FRONT...THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
WIND CHILLS. A STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY INTO THE
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1235 AM EST...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED JUST
NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND POISED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION BETWEEN 1 AM AND 6 AM FROM NW TO SE. AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS
DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS REMOVED FROM THE MOISTURE SOURCE
/LAKE ONTARIO/. THE LATEST 3-KM HRRR SHOWS SNOW SHOWERS WEAKENING
AS THEY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BOUNDARY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
WITH GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES. THE HIGHER TOTALS WILL BE
OVER THE WRN DACKS.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT...BUT NOT AS COLD AS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LATER IN THE WEEKEND. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 10 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST AREAS TO 15 ABOVE ZERO
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NW CT AND THE MID HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH A WIND
CHILL WARNING STARTING AT 3 AM FOR THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE JAIL BREAK OF ARCTIC AIR KICKS IN...AS THE
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MAINLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIND CHILL WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL
OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL BE WITH US OVER THE WEEKEND
IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT AS AN ARCTIC AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION BY SUNDAY. H8 TEMPS DROP TO 27 TO 34
DEGREES BELOW ZERO BY SATURDAY EVENING. HAVE GONE WITH A NON-
DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPS ON SATURDAY AS THE LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THE HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE SAME WITH THE TEMPS DROPPING
ALL DAY ON SATURDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP FROM 10 BELOW TO
15 ABOVE ZERO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TO 15 BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE
ZERO BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. WIND CHILLS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE
FROM 10 BELOW TO 35 BELOW ZERO WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE ESPECIALLY BRUTAL AS AIR TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO 5 BELOW TO NEAR 30 BELOW ZERO WITH WIND CHILL
VALUES 25 BELOW TO NEAR 50 BELOW ZERO.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER OUR REGION
ON SUNDAY AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL STILL BE FAIRLY STRONG ON SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING
LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
ZERO TO 15 ABOVE ZERO RANGE WITH THE LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT BETWEEN 10
BELOW AND 5 ABOVE ZERO.

MONDAY WILL FEATURE INCREASING CLOUDS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HIGHS WILL MODERATE
ON MONDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTHWEST TO UPPER 20S
SOUTHEAST WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA
LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE
AS TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM... AT LEAST IN ITS
EARLY STAGES. TWO TO SIX INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT... WHICH IS MORE OR LESS THE START OF THE EVENT. BEYOND THAT
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE AS THERE IS
PLENTY OF MILD AIR TO BE DRAWN IN OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THUS
THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY WILL BE CRUCIAL. RIGHT NOW...THE
TRACK IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM ABOUT CHARLOTTE NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH ALBANY.

BECAUSE THE TRACK IS NOT SEEN AS GOING FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO
GIVE US AN ALL SNOW EVENT...INDICATIONS ARE PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY
OUTSIDE OF THE ADIRONDACKS...BEFORE EVERYTHING TAPERS OFF AS SNOW
TUESDAY NIGHT.  THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT ANY DECENT PERIOD OF RAIN...AS IS EXPECTED RIGHT
NOW...WILL KEEP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT BAY.

BROAD LAKE ENHANCEMENT ON INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING STORM WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS OF LIGHT AMOUNTS GOING FOR
MANY AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR
WEDNESDAY.  BUT THE ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN RAPIDLY ON THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN...BUT WITHOUT THE EXTREME COLD WE/RE
EXPECTING THIS WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S THROUGH THE
UPPER 40S ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 30 DEGREES ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY HIGHS WILL REBOUND SOMEWHAT.  OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 20S IN
THE LOWER MID HUDSON VALLEY.  TUESDAY NIGHT...THEY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 20S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 30S DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER...AND
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDEST...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO THE UPPER TEENS DOWN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLIPPER LOW WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...AS THE ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH.
A NW FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY INTO
THE NIGHT PERIOD WITH GUSTY WINDS.

THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
OR A SQUALL FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH...IMPACTING KGFL/KALB/KPSF
BETWEEN 04Z-09Z. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED IN COVERAGE DUE TO VERY LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. A VCSH
WAS USED AT KALB/KPSF/KGFL THROUGH ABOUT 10-11Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE DOMINATE...ASIDE FOR SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS/ISOLD SQUALLS ESPECIALLY AT KPSF/KGFL. CIGS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 4-9 KFT AGL RANGE. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AFTER DAYBREAK...SOME LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS OR MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL LINGER. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE FRIGID
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PM.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4-10 KTS PRIOR TO
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BEFORE DAYBREAK...THEN VEER TO THE W TO NW AT 6-
12 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE
WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT LATE IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AT
12-20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING BUT WILL STILL BE
GUSTY.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4-10 KTS PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT...THEN VEER TO THE W TO NW AT 6-12 KTS BEFORE DAYBREAK
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE
OF THE ARCTIC FRONT LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AT
12-20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH BITTER COLD AIR IN PLACE...ICE COVERAGE ON RIVERS AND LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS EVENING...BUT THIS
WILL AMOUNT TO LITTLE IF ANY HYDROLOGIC SIGNIFICANCE.

HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING ONE TO THREE INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT
COULD OCCUR...AND MUCH OF THIS COULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. IF
THIS RAIN WERE TO MATERIALIZE...IT COULD HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS...ESP CONSIDERING THE GROUND WILL BE FULLY
FROZEN BY THAT TIME...ALLOWING MUCH OF THE PRECIP TO BE RUNOFF.
DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE CERTAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038-
     042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-064>066-083-
     084.
MA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KBTV 130449
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1149 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY
NEW YORK THROUGH THIS EVENING...IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
ARCTIC FRONT FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS. MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR
MASS OF THE WINTER SEASON...WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS
SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT...AND INTO SUNDAY. A MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MONDAY...WITH A STRONG AND MOISTURE LADEN
STORM SYSTEM BRINGING POTENTIAL MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 938 PM EST FRIDAY...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY T/TD
TRENDS NEEDED AS OF 900 PM WITH REST OF FORECAST STILL IN GOOD
SHAPE. DID TREND AWAY FROM 00/01Z LAMP TEMP/DEWPOINT GUIDANCE
HOWEVER AS IT APPEARS TO WARM AND CLOUDY IN MOST SPOTS BY SUNRISE.
WE`VE RECEIVED REPORTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
HALF OF ST LAWRENCE COUNTY THIS EVENING, AND IF YOU BELIEVE KTYX
DUAL-POL PCPN ESTIMATES A FEW AREAS NEAR THE JEFFERSON COUNTY
BORDER NEAR GOUVERNEUR MAY HAVE RECEIVED SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS.
WITH ARCTIC BOUNDARY NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA LAKE SNOWS WILL
SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH JUST SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THIS AREA
OVERNIGHT. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE DACKS INTO NORTHERN VT STILL
EXPECTING A BRIEF 1-2 HOUR WINDOW OF STEADIER MORE PERSISTENT SHSN
ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF
A DUSTING TO PERHAPS 2 INCHES IN THE 10 PM TO 3 AM TIME FRAME.
HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 315 PM FRIDAY...
MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF SHARP AND WELL-DEFINED ARCTIC
BNDRY MOVING SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OTTAWA VALLEY AND
GEORGIAN BAY IN ONTARIO. THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW- LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EMANATING OFF
LAKE ONTARIO TO REACH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE THESE BANDS LEADING TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (3-7")
LOCALLY ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY - ESPECIALLY SRN/WRN SECTIONS.
HAVE CONTINUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 06Z FOR POTENTIAL
SLOW TRAVEL CONDITIONS OWING TO SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW
VSBY.

THE ARCTIC FRONT ITSELF IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW BAND OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND SQUALLS, PER OTTAWA RADAR. THE MESOSCALE
MODELS...INCLUDING BTV- 4KM AND 12KM WRF...AND BTV SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER...SUGGEST THIS BAND OF ACTIVITY WILL MANAGE TO SHIFT
ESEWD ACROSS NRN NY BETWEEN 3-06Z...AND THROUGH THE BTV AREA
06-08Z. MAY SEE SOME DECREASE EAST OF THE GREENS...BUT MAINTAINED
CHC -SW EASTERN SECTIONS LATE. A QUICK DUSTING TO 2" OF VERY DRY
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN TIME OF DAY/WEEK...LIGHT TRAFFIC
VOLUME AND TEMPS ALREADY WELL BELOW FREEZING SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
IMPACT FROM ANY SNOW SQUALL ACTIVITY.

LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE VERY STRONG BEHIND THE
BNDRY...CURRENTLY SEEING MID-DAY READINGS -20F NORTH OF LAKE
HURON...AND 850MB TEMPS ARE -25C TO -32C. THE LOW-LEVEL CAA
ARRIVES FIRST IN NRN NY...DRIVING DAYBREAK TEMPS DOWN TO -10 TO
-15F FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. WON/T BE QUITE
AS COLD ACROSS VT (+2F AT BTV 12Z AND 5-10F EAST OF THE
GREENS)...BUT NW WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL
RESULT IN VERY LOW WIND CHILLS.

WIND CHILLS BECOME MORE SEVERE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY -
ESPECIALLY ACROSS VT - WITH NEAR STEADY TO FALLING TEMPS NEAR
ZERO. WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO ALL DAY SATURDAY ACROSS NRN NY...WITH
HIGHS -5F TO -10F IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NRN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS. WIND CHILLS 25 TO 35 BELOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN
NY. HAVE MAINTAINED WIND CHILL WARNINGS...WHICH TAKE EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW STRAY FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY...BUT GENERALLY DRY AND BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. MAY SEE A
FEW STRATOCU DUE TO COLD AIR ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...BUT NW RATHER THAN N WINDS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
FETCH/EXTENT OF ANY LAKE-INDUCED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO AROUND -30C SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW SITTING OVER THE
REGION, DEPARTING MOISTURE AND DECREASING CLOUDS EXPECT AIR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO 15 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. WIND SPEEDS OF
8-15KTS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES -30 TO -40 DEGREES WITH
COLDER WIND CHILLS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY WITH
GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO
AROUND -20C ON SUNDAY AND A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT AS
RIDGING OCCURS ALOFT AND THE SURFACE RIDGE STARTS TO SLIDE EAST,
PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO MODERATING LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW.

CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY, COLD AIR TEMPERATURES AND WARM WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN MAY RESULT IN TEA KETTLING STEAM CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OFF THE LAKE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AT BTV DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ELSEWHERE COLD BY BENIGN
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE NEGATIVE
SINGLE DIGITS TO POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS WITH DECREASING WINDS.
SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY
NIGHT...REMAINING BELOW ZERO.

MONDAY CONTINUES TO SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE SLIDE
INTO THE ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES NEARING NORMAL IN THE MID TEENS TO
MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK DIGGING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
THAT FORMS LATE MONDAY...TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE. THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE LOW TRACK AND
RESULTING PTYPE AND AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. 12Z GFS TRACKS
SURFACE LOW JUST TO OUR EAST...CROSSING NH ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
GFS ENSEMBLES MEAN SIMILAR WITH THE LOW TRACKING OVER VT/EASTERN VT.
12Z ECWMF SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUN, KEEPING A MORE WESTERLY TRACK
WITH THE LOW MOVING IN THE WESTERN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODEL SIMILARITIES...PRECIP MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST MONDAY NIGHT IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. PWAT ANOMALIES
IN EXCESS OF 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL RESULT IN STORM
TOTAL QPF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES. ANY WARM AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM HOLDS OFF TO THE SOUTH THROUGH AROUND 12Z TUESDAY...MEANING
PRECIP WILL START AS SNOW.

MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL AFFECT PTYPE. GFS WITH THE MORE EASTERLY
TRACK KEEPS COLD AIR ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND WARMER AIR IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND AREAS EAST. WHILE 850MB AND 925MB ZERO DEGREE
LINES ARE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO EACH OTHER THROUGHOUT THE EVENT ON
THE GFS...SOME WINTRY MIX/ICING IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AS ARCTIC
TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THIS EVENT WILL LEAD TO FROZEN GROUND. ECWMF
ON THE OTHER HAND MOVES THE WARM AIR WEST OF THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY...BUT PERSISTENT NE FLOW DOWN INTO THE VALLEY WILL KEEP LOW
LEVEL/NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES AOB FREEZING. THIS COULD BE THE SET
UP FOR A SIGNIFICANT ICING EVENT.

SO WITH ALL OF THESE FACTORS YET TO BE RESOLVED BY THE MODELS WHAT
WE CAN EXPECT IS A VERY MOIST STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
CENTRAL LOW PRESSURE FALLING INTO THE 970-980MB RANGE AS IT PASSES
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL START AS SNOW WITH PORTIONS OF THE AREA SEEING WINTRY
MIX DURING THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO
BE AN ISSUE AS SOUTHERLY JET AT 850MB WITH SPEEDS GREATER THAN 50KTS
ENTERS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY STRENGTHENS DURING THE DAY. ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS STORM, STRONG NW WINDS TAKE OVER AT 30-45KTS.

WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL BE DEPARTING NORTH AND EAST WITH SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW PRODUCING
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AT MSS, WITH VFR ELSEWHERE. AN EVENTUAL
DETERIORATION ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE TAFS AS ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED SNOW SQUALLS PUSH EASTWARD. EXPECT A SHORT-DURATION (AN
HOUR OR LESS) VISIBILITY DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR IN SNOW SQUALLS WITH A
GUSTY WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST. SEE TAFS FOR SPECIFIC
TIMING, BUT IS GENERALLY IN THE 02-06Z WINDOW. GREATEST IMPACT TO
BTV TERMINAL AND AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS AROUND 05Z. MORE RAPID
CLEARING TOWARD VFR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 07Z, THOUGH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AS HIGH AS
25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COASTAL
STORM WILL SPREAD HEAVY MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION NWD INTO THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD IFR AVIATION WX CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...

COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR FEBRUARY 13TH FOR OUR CLIMATE
SITES...
BTV -25 1967
MPV -29 1967
MSS -33 1967
SJBV1 -30 1967
MMNV1 -32 1967

COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR VALENTINES DAY (FEBRUARY
14TH)...
BTV -2 1979
MPV -4 1979
MSS -3 1987
SJBV1 +2 1987
MMNV1 -19 1979

COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR VALENTINES DAY (FEBRUARY
14TH)...
BTV -19 1987
MPV -19 2003
MSS -29 2003
SJBV1 -28 2003
MMNV1 -30 1979



&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ029-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS/LOCONTO
CLIMATE...LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KALY 130250
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
950 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS
AHEAD OF IT. BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT...THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF
THE SEASON WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS. A STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY INTO THE MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 949 PM EST...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION BTWN 04Z /11 PM/ AND 10Z /5 AM/ FROM NW TO SE. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED SNOW SQUALLS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. THE LATEST 3-KM HRRR SHOWS THE CURRENT BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS CURRENTLY WEST OF THE FCST ON THE LOCAL AND MOSAIC
RADAR IMAGERY MOVING INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY...ADIRONDACKS...AND
CATSKILLS...AND THEN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FURTHER DOWN STREAM
TOWARDS THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES. THE
HIGHER TOTALS WILL BE OVER THE WRN DACKS. ANY SNOW SQUALLS WOULD
LIKELY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO UNDER A QUARTER MILE BRIEFLY FOR A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. SOME CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
POPS/CLOUDS/TEMPS BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE
TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEKEND. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
10 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST AREAS TO 15 ABOVE ZERO SOUTHEAST TOWARDS
NW CT AND THE MID HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH A WIND CHILL WARNING STARTING
AT 3 AM FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE JAIL BREAK OF
ARCTIC AIR KICKS IN...AS THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
MAINLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIND CHILL WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL
OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL BE WITH US OVER THE WEEKEND
IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT AS AN ARCTIC AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION BY SUNDAY. H8 TEMPS DROP TO 27 TO 34
DEGREES BELOW ZERO BY SATURDAY EVENING. HAVE GONE WITH A NON-
DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPS ON SATURDAY AS THE LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THE HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE SAME WITH THE TEMPS DROPPING
ALL DAY ON SATURDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP FROM 10 BELOW TO
15 ABOVE ZERO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TO 15 BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE
ZERO BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. WIND CHILLS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE
FROM 10 BELOW TO 35 BELOW ZERO WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE ESPECIALLY BRUTAL AS AIR TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO 5 BELOW TO NEAR 30 BELOW ZERO WITH WIND CHILL
VALUES 25 BELOW TO NEAR 50 BELOW ZERO.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER OUR REGION
ON SUNDAY AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL STILL BE FAIRLY STRONG ON SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING
LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
ZERO TO 15 ABOVE ZERO RANGE WITH THE LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT BETWEEN 10
BELOW AND 5 ABOVE ZERO.

MONDAY WILL FEATURE INCREASING CLOUDS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HIGHS WILL MODERATE
ON MONDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTHWEST TO UPPER 20S
SOUTHEAST WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA
LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE
AS TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM... AT LEAST IN ITS
EARLY STAGES. TWO TO SIX INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT... WHICH IS MORE OR LESS THE START OF THE EVENT. BEYOND THAT
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE AS THERE IS
PLENTY OF MILD AIR TO BE DRAWN IN OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THUS
THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY WILL BE CRUCIAL. RIGHT NOW...THE
TRACK IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM ABOUT CHARLOTTE NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH ALBANY.

BECAUSE THE TRACK IS NOT SEEN AS GOING FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO
GIVE US AN ALL SNOW EVENT...INDICATIONS ARE PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY
OUTSIDE OF THE ADIRONDACKS...BEFORE EVERYTHING TAPERS OFF AS SNOW
TUESDAY NIGHT.  THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT ANY DECENT PERIOD OF RAIN...AS IS EXPECTED RIGHT
NOW...WILL KEEP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT BAY.

BROAD LAKE ENHANCEMENT ON INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING STORM WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS OF LIGHT AMOUNTS GOING FOR
MANY AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR
WEDNESDAY.  BUT THE ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN RAPIDLY ON THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN...BUT WITHOUT THE EXTREME COLD WE/RE
EXPECTING THIS WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S THROUGH THE
UPPER 40S ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 30 DEGREES ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY HIGHS WILL REBOUND SOMEWHAT.  OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 20S IN
THE LOWER MID HUDSON VALLEY.  TUESDAY NIGHT...THEY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 20S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 30S DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER...AND
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDEST...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO THE UPPER TEENS DOWN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLIPPER LOW WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...AS THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. A NW FLOW OF ARCTIC
AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT PERIOD
WITH GUSTY WINDS.

THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS OR A SQUALL FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH...IMPACTING
KGFL/KALB/KPSF BTWN 04Z-09Z. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE DUE TO VERY LIMITED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. A VCSH WAS USED AT KALB/KPSF AFTER 05Z...AND A TEMPO
WAS USED FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL BTWN 04Z-06Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE DOMINATE...ASIDE FOR SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS/ISOLD SQUALLS ESPECIALLY AT KPSF/KGFL. CIGS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 4-9 KFT AGL RANGE. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
LATE TOMORROW MORNING...SOME LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS OR MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL LINGER. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
FRIGID NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PM.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4-10 KTS PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT...THEN VEER TO THE W TO NW AT 6-12 KTS BEFORE DAYBREAK
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE
OF THE ARCTIC FRONT LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AT
12-20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH BITTER COLD AIR IN PLACE...ICE COVERAGE ON RIVERS AND LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS EVENING...BUT THIS
WILL AMOUNT TO LITTLE IF ANY HYDROLOGIC SIGNIFICANCE.

HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING ONE TO THREE INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT
COULD OCCUR...AND MUCH OF THIS COULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. IF
THIS RAIN WERE TO MATERIALIZE...IT COULD HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS...ESP CONSIDERING THE GROUND WILL BE FULLY
FROZEN BY THAT TIME...ALLOWING MUCH OF THE PRECIP TO BE RUNOFF.
DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE CERTAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-064>066-083-084.
MA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KBTV 130238
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
938 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY
NEW YORK THROUGH THIS EVENING...IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
ARCTIC FRONT FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS. MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR
MASS OF THE WINTER SEASON...WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS
SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT...AND INTO SUNDAY. A MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MONDAY...WITH A STRONG AND MOISTURE LADEN
STORM SYSTEM BRINGING POTENTIAL MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 938 PM EST FRIDAY...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY T/TD
TRENDS NEEDED AS OF 900 PM WITH REST OF FORECAST STILL IN GOOD
SHAPE. DID TREND AWAY FROM 00/01Z LAMP TEMP/DEWPOINT GUIDANCE
HOWEVER AS IT APPEARS TO WARM AND CLOUDY IN MOST SPOTS BY SUNRISE.
WE`VE RECEIVED REPORTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
HALF OF ST LAWRENCE COUNTY THIS EVENING, AND IF YOU BELIEVE KTYX
DUAL-POL PCPN ESTIMATES A FEW AREAS NEAR THE JEFFERSON COUNTY
BORDER NEAR GOUVERNEUR MAY HAVE RECEIVED SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS.
WITH ARCTIC BOUNDARY NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA LAKE SNOWS WILL
SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH JUST SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THIS AREA
OVERNIGHT. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE DACKS INTO NORTHERN VT STILL
EXPECTING A BRIEF 1-2 HOUR WINDOW OF STEADIER MORE PERSISTENT SHSN
ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF
A DUSTING TO PERHAPS 2 INCHES IN THE 10 PM TO 3 AM TIME FRAME.
HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 315 PM FRIDAY...
MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF SHARP AND WELL-DEFINED ARCTIC
BNDRY MOVING SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OTTAWA VALLEY AND
GEORGIAN BAY IN ONTARIO. THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW- LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EMANATING OFF
LAKE ONTARIO TO REACH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE THESE BANDS LEADING TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (3-7")
LOCALLY ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY - ESPECIALLY SRN/WRN SECTIONS.
HAVE CONTINUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 06Z FOR POTENTIAL
SLOW TRAVEL CONDITIONS OWING TO SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW
VSBY.

THE ARCTIC FRONT ITSELF IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW BAND OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND SQUALLS, PER OTTAWA RADAR. THE MESOSCALE
MODELS...INCLUDING BTV- 4KM AND 12KM WRF...AND BTV SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER...SUGGEST THIS BAND OF ACTIVITY WILL MANAGE TO SHIFT
ESEWD ACROSS NRN NY BETWEEN 3-06Z...AND THROUGH THE BTV AREA
06-08Z. MAY SEE SOME DECREASE EAST OF THE GREENS...BUT MAINTAINED
CHC -SW EASTERN SECTIONS LATE. A QUICK DUSTING TO 2" OF VERY DRY
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN TIME OF DAY/WEEK...LIGHT TRAFFIC
VOLUME AND TEMPS ALREADY WELL BELOW FREEZING SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
IMPACT FROM ANY SNOW SQUALL ACTIVITY.

LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE VERY STRONG BEHIND THE
BNDRY...CURRENTLY SEEING MID-DAY READINGS -20F NORTH OF LAKE
HURON...AND 850MB TEMPS ARE -25C TO -32C. THE LOW-LEVEL CAA
ARRIVES FIRST IN NRN NY...DRIVING DAYBREAK TEMPS DOWN TO -10 TO
-15F FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. WON/T BE QUITE
AS COLD ACROSS VT (+2F AT BTV 12Z AND 5-10F EAST OF THE
GREENS)...BUT NW WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL
RESULT IN VERY LOW WIND CHILLS.

WIND CHILLS BECOME MORE SEVERE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY -
ESPECIALLY ACROSS VT - WITH NEAR STEADY TO FALLING TEMPS NEAR
ZERO. WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO ALL DAY SATURDAY ACROSS NRN NY...WITH
HIGHS -5F TO -10F IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NRN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS. WIND CHILLS 25 TO 35 BELOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN
NY. HAVE MAINTAINED WIND CHILL WARNINGS...WHICH TAKE EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW STRAY FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY...BUT GENERALLY DRY AND BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. MAY SEE A
FEW STRATOCU DUE TO COLD AIR ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...BUT NW RATHER THAN N WINDS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
FETCH/EXTENT OF ANY LAKE-INDUCED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO AROUND -30C SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW SITTING OVER THE
REGION, DEPARTING MOISTURE AND DECREASING CLOUDS EXPECT AIR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO 15 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. WIND SPEEDS OF
8-15KTS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES -30 TO -40 DEGREES WITH
COLDER WIND CHILLS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY WITH
GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO
AROUND -20C ON SUNDAY AND A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT AS
RIDGING OCCURS ALOFT AND THE SURFACE RIDGE STARTS TO SLIDE EAST,
PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO MODERATING LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW.

CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY, COLD AIR TEMPERATURES AND WARM WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN MAY RESULT IN TEA KETTLING STEAM CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OFF THE LAKE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AT BTV DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ELSEWHERE COLD BY BENIGN
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE NEGATIVE
SINGLE DIGITS TO POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS WITH DECREASING WINDS.
SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY
NIGHT...REMAINING BELOW ZERO.

MONDAY CONTINUES TO SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE SLIDE
INTO THE ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES NEARING NORMAL IN THE MID TEENS TO
MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK DIGGING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
THAT FORMS LATE MONDAY...TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE. THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE LOW TRACK AND
RESULTING PTYPE AND AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. 12Z GFS TRACKS
SURFACE LOW JUST TO OUR EAST...CROSSING NH ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
GFS ENSEMBLES MEAN SIMILAR WITH THE LOW TRACKING OVER VT/EASTERN VT.
12Z ECWMF SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUN, KEEPING A MORE WESTERLY TRACK
WITH THE LOW MOVING IN THE WESTERN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODEL SIMILARITIES...PRECIP MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST MONDAY NIGHT IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. PWAT ANOMALIES
IN EXCESS OF 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL RESULT IN STORM
TOTAL QPF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES. ANY WARM AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM HOLDS OFF TO THE SOUTH THROUGH AROUND 12Z TUESDAY...MEANING
PRECIP WILL START AS SNOW.

MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL AFFECT PTYPE. GFS WITH THE MORE EASTERLY
TRACK KEEPS COLD AIR ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND WARMER AIR IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND AREAS EAST. WHILE 850MB AND 925MB ZERO DEGREE
LINES ARE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO EACH OTHER THROUGHOUT THE EVENT ON
THE GFS...SOME WINTRY MIX/ICING IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AS ARCTIC
TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THIS EVENT WILL LEAD TO FROZEN GROUND. ECWMF
ON THE OTHER HAND MOVES THE WARM AIR WEST OF THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY...BUT PERSISTENT NE FLOW DOWN INTO THE VALLEY WILL KEEP LOW
LEVEL/NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES AOB FREEZING. THIS COULD BE THE SET
UP FOR A SIGNIFICANT ICING EVENT.

SO WITH ALL OF THESE FACTORS YET TO BE RESOLVED BY THE MODELS WHAT
WE CAN EXPECT IS A VERY MOIST STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
CENTRAL LOW PRESSURE FALLING INTO THE 970-980MB RANGE AS IT PASSES
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL START AS SNOW WITH PORTIONS OF THE AREA SEEING WINTRY
MIX DURING THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO
BE AN ISSUE AS SOUTHERLY JET AT 850MB WITH SPEEDS GREATER THAN 50KTS
ENTERS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY STRENGTHENS DURING THE DAY. ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS STORM, STRONG NW WINDS TAKE OVER AT 30-45KTS.

WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL BE DEPARTING NORTH AND EAST WITH SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW PRODUCING
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AT MSS, WITH VFR ELSEWHERE. AN EVENTUAL
DETERIORATION ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE TAFS AS ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED SNOW SQUALLS PUSH EASTWARD. EXPECT A SHORT-DURATION (AN
HOUR OR LESS) VISIBILITY DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR IN SNOW SQUALLS WITH A
GUSTY WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST. SEE TAFS FOR SPECIFIC
TIMING, BUT IS GENERALLY IN THE 02-06Z WINDOW. GREATEST IMPACT TO
BTV TERMINAL AND AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS AROUND 05Z. MORE RAPID
CLEARING TOWARD VFR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 07Z, THOUGH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AS HIGH AS
25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COASTAL
STORM WILL SPREAD HEAVY MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION NWD INTO THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD IFR AVIATION WX CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ029-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LOCONTO/BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 130238
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
938 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY
NEW YORK THROUGH THIS EVENING...IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
ARCTIC FRONT FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS. MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR
MASS OF THE WINTER SEASON...WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS
SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT...AND INTO SUNDAY. A MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MONDAY...WITH A STRONG AND MOISTURE LADEN
STORM SYSTEM BRINGING POTENTIAL MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 938 PM EST FRIDAY...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY T/TD
TRENDS NEEDED AS OF 900 PM WITH REST OF FORECAST STILL IN GOOD
SHAPE. DID TREND AWAY FROM 00/01Z LAMP TEMP/DEWPOINT GUIDANCE
HOWEVER AS IT APPEARS TO WARM AND CLOUDY IN MOST SPOTS BY SUNRISE.
WE`VE RECEIVED REPORTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
HALF OF ST LAWRENCE COUNTY THIS EVENING, AND IF YOU BELIEVE KTYX
DUAL-POL PCPN ESTIMATES A FEW AREAS NEAR THE JEFFERSON COUNTY
BORDER NEAR GOUVERNEUR MAY HAVE RECEIVED SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS.
WITH ARCTIC BOUNDARY NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA LAKE SNOWS WILL
SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH JUST SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THIS AREA
OVERNIGHT. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE DACKS INTO NORTHERN VT STILL
EXPECTING A BRIEF 1-2 HOUR WINDOW OF STEADIER MORE PERSISTENT SHSN
ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF
A DUSTING TO PERHAPS 2 INCHES IN THE 10 PM TO 3 AM TIME FRAME.
HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 315 PM FRIDAY...
MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF SHARP AND WELL-DEFINED ARCTIC
BNDRY MOVING SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OTTAWA VALLEY AND
GEORGIAN BAY IN ONTARIO. THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW- LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EMANATING OFF
LAKE ONTARIO TO REACH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE THESE BANDS LEADING TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (3-7")
LOCALLY ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY - ESPECIALLY SRN/WRN SECTIONS.
HAVE CONTINUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 06Z FOR POTENTIAL
SLOW TRAVEL CONDITIONS OWING TO SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW
VSBY.

THE ARCTIC FRONT ITSELF IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW BAND OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND SQUALLS, PER OTTAWA RADAR. THE MESOSCALE
MODELS...INCLUDING BTV- 4KM AND 12KM WRF...AND BTV SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER...SUGGEST THIS BAND OF ACTIVITY WILL MANAGE TO SHIFT
ESEWD ACROSS NRN NY BETWEEN 3-06Z...AND THROUGH THE BTV AREA
06-08Z. MAY SEE SOME DECREASE EAST OF THE GREENS...BUT MAINTAINED
CHC -SW EASTERN SECTIONS LATE. A QUICK DUSTING TO 2" OF VERY DRY
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN TIME OF DAY/WEEK...LIGHT TRAFFIC
VOLUME AND TEMPS ALREADY WELL BELOW FREEZING SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
IMPACT FROM ANY SNOW SQUALL ACTIVITY.

LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE VERY STRONG BEHIND THE
BNDRY...CURRENTLY SEEING MID-DAY READINGS -20F NORTH OF LAKE
HURON...AND 850MB TEMPS ARE -25C TO -32C. THE LOW-LEVEL CAA
ARRIVES FIRST IN NRN NY...DRIVING DAYBREAK TEMPS DOWN TO -10 TO
-15F FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. WON/T BE QUITE
AS COLD ACROSS VT (+2F AT BTV 12Z AND 5-10F EAST OF THE
GREENS)...BUT NW WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL
RESULT IN VERY LOW WIND CHILLS.

WIND CHILLS BECOME MORE SEVERE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY -
ESPECIALLY ACROSS VT - WITH NEAR STEADY TO FALLING TEMPS NEAR
ZERO. WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO ALL DAY SATURDAY ACROSS NRN NY...WITH
HIGHS -5F TO -10F IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NRN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS. WIND CHILLS 25 TO 35 BELOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN
NY. HAVE MAINTAINED WIND CHILL WARNINGS...WHICH TAKE EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW STRAY FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY...BUT GENERALLY DRY AND BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. MAY SEE A
FEW STRATOCU DUE TO COLD AIR ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...BUT NW RATHER THAN N WINDS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
FETCH/EXTENT OF ANY LAKE-INDUCED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO AROUND -30C SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW SITTING OVER THE
REGION, DEPARTING MOISTURE AND DECREASING CLOUDS EXPECT AIR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO 15 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. WIND SPEEDS OF
8-15KTS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES -30 TO -40 DEGREES WITH
COLDER WIND CHILLS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY WITH
GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO
AROUND -20C ON SUNDAY AND A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT AS
RIDGING OCCURS ALOFT AND THE SURFACE RIDGE STARTS TO SLIDE EAST,
PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO MODERATING LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW.

CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY, COLD AIR TEMPERATURES AND WARM WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN MAY RESULT IN TEA KETTLING STEAM CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OFF THE LAKE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AT BTV DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ELSEWHERE COLD BY BENIGN
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE NEGATIVE
SINGLE DIGITS TO POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS WITH DECREASING WINDS.
SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY
NIGHT...REMAINING BELOW ZERO.

MONDAY CONTINUES TO SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE SLIDE
INTO THE ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES NEARING NORMAL IN THE MID TEENS TO
MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK DIGGING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
THAT FORMS LATE MONDAY...TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE. THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE LOW TRACK AND
RESULTING PTYPE AND AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. 12Z GFS TRACKS
SURFACE LOW JUST TO OUR EAST...CROSSING NH ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
GFS ENSEMBLES MEAN SIMILAR WITH THE LOW TRACKING OVER VT/EASTERN VT.
12Z ECWMF SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUN, KEEPING A MORE WESTERLY TRACK
WITH THE LOW MOVING IN THE WESTERN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODEL SIMILARITIES...PRECIP MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST MONDAY NIGHT IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. PWAT ANOMALIES
IN EXCESS OF 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL RESULT IN STORM
TOTAL QPF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES. ANY WARM AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM HOLDS OFF TO THE SOUTH THROUGH AROUND 12Z TUESDAY...MEANING
PRECIP WILL START AS SNOW.

MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL AFFECT PTYPE. GFS WITH THE MORE EASTERLY
TRACK KEEPS COLD AIR ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND WARMER AIR IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND AREAS EAST. WHILE 850MB AND 925MB ZERO DEGREE
LINES ARE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO EACH OTHER THROUGHOUT THE EVENT ON
THE GFS...SOME WINTRY MIX/ICING IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AS ARCTIC
TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THIS EVENT WILL LEAD TO FROZEN GROUND. ECWMF
ON THE OTHER HAND MOVES THE WARM AIR WEST OF THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY...BUT PERSISTENT NE FLOW DOWN INTO THE VALLEY WILL KEEP LOW
LEVEL/NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES AOB FREEZING. THIS COULD BE THE SET
UP FOR A SIGNIFICANT ICING EVENT.

SO WITH ALL OF THESE FACTORS YET TO BE RESOLVED BY THE MODELS WHAT
WE CAN EXPECT IS A VERY MOIST STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
CENTRAL LOW PRESSURE FALLING INTO THE 970-980MB RANGE AS IT PASSES
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL START AS SNOW WITH PORTIONS OF THE AREA SEEING WINTRY
MIX DURING THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO
BE AN ISSUE AS SOUTHERLY JET AT 850MB WITH SPEEDS GREATER THAN 50KTS
ENTERS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY STRENGTHENS DURING THE DAY. ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS STORM, STRONG NW WINDS TAKE OVER AT 30-45KTS.

WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL BE DEPARTING NORTH AND EAST WITH SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW PRODUCING
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AT MSS, WITH VFR ELSEWHERE. AN EVENTUAL
DETERIORATION ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE TAFS AS ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED SNOW SQUALLS PUSH EASTWARD. EXPECT A SHORT-DURATION (AN
HOUR OR LESS) VISIBILITY DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR IN SNOW SQUALLS WITH A
GUSTY WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST. SEE TAFS FOR SPECIFIC
TIMING, BUT IS GENERALLY IN THE 02-06Z WINDOW. GREATEST IMPACT TO
BTV TERMINAL AND AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS AROUND 05Z. MORE RAPID
CLEARING TOWARD VFR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 07Z, THOUGH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AS HIGH AS
25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COASTAL
STORM WILL SPREAD HEAVY MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION NWD INTO THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD IFR AVIATION WX CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ029-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LOCONTO/BANACOS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 130238
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
938 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY
NEW YORK THROUGH THIS EVENING...IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
ARCTIC FRONT FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS. MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR
MASS OF THE WINTER SEASON...WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS
SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT...AND INTO SUNDAY. A MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MONDAY...WITH A STRONG AND MOISTURE LADEN
STORM SYSTEM BRINGING POTENTIAL MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 938 PM EST FRIDAY...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY T/TD
TRENDS NEEDED AS OF 900 PM WITH REST OF FORECAST STILL IN GOOD
SHAPE. DID TREND AWAY FROM 00/01Z LAMP TEMP/DEWPOINT GUIDANCE
HOWEVER AS IT APPEARS TO WARM AND CLOUDY IN MOST SPOTS BY SUNRISE.
WE`VE RECEIVED REPORTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
HALF OF ST LAWRENCE COUNTY THIS EVENING, AND IF YOU BELIEVE KTYX
DUAL-POL PCPN ESTIMATES A FEW AREAS NEAR THE JEFFERSON COUNTY
BORDER NEAR GOUVERNEUR MAY HAVE RECEIVED SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS.
WITH ARCTIC BOUNDARY NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA LAKE SNOWS WILL
SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH JUST SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THIS AREA
OVERNIGHT. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE DACKS INTO NORTHERN VT STILL
EXPECTING A BRIEF 1-2 HOUR WINDOW OF STEADIER MORE PERSISTENT SHSN
ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF
A DUSTING TO PERHAPS 2 INCHES IN THE 10 PM TO 3 AM TIME FRAME.
HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 315 PM FRIDAY...
MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF SHARP AND WELL-DEFINED ARCTIC
BNDRY MOVING SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OTTAWA VALLEY AND
GEORGIAN BAY IN ONTARIO. THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW- LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EMANATING OFF
LAKE ONTARIO TO REACH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE THESE BANDS LEADING TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (3-7")
LOCALLY ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY - ESPECIALLY SRN/WRN SECTIONS.
HAVE CONTINUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 06Z FOR POTENTIAL
SLOW TRAVEL CONDITIONS OWING TO SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW
VSBY.

THE ARCTIC FRONT ITSELF IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW BAND OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND SQUALLS, PER OTTAWA RADAR. THE MESOSCALE
MODELS...INCLUDING BTV- 4KM AND 12KM WRF...AND BTV SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER...SUGGEST THIS BAND OF ACTIVITY WILL MANAGE TO SHIFT
ESEWD ACROSS NRN NY BETWEEN 3-06Z...AND THROUGH THE BTV AREA
06-08Z. MAY SEE SOME DECREASE EAST OF THE GREENS...BUT MAINTAINED
CHC -SW EASTERN SECTIONS LATE. A QUICK DUSTING TO 2" OF VERY DRY
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN TIME OF DAY/WEEK...LIGHT TRAFFIC
VOLUME AND TEMPS ALREADY WELL BELOW FREEZING SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
IMPACT FROM ANY SNOW SQUALL ACTIVITY.

LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE VERY STRONG BEHIND THE
BNDRY...CURRENTLY SEEING MID-DAY READINGS -20F NORTH OF LAKE
HURON...AND 850MB TEMPS ARE -25C TO -32C. THE LOW-LEVEL CAA
ARRIVES FIRST IN NRN NY...DRIVING DAYBREAK TEMPS DOWN TO -10 TO
-15F FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. WON/T BE QUITE
AS COLD ACROSS VT (+2F AT BTV 12Z AND 5-10F EAST OF THE
GREENS)...BUT NW WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL
RESULT IN VERY LOW WIND CHILLS.

WIND CHILLS BECOME MORE SEVERE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY -
ESPECIALLY ACROSS VT - WITH NEAR STEADY TO FALLING TEMPS NEAR
ZERO. WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO ALL DAY SATURDAY ACROSS NRN NY...WITH
HIGHS -5F TO -10F IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NRN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS. WIND CHILLS 25 TO 35 BELOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN
NY. HAVE MAINTAINED WIND CHILL WARNINGS...WHICH TAKE EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW STRAY FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY...BUT GENERALLY DRY AND BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. MAY SEE A
FEW STRATOCU DUE TO COLD AIR ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...BUT NW RATHER THAN N WINDS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
FETCH/EXTENT OF ANY LAKE-INDUCED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO AROUND -30C SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW SITTING OVER THE
REGION, DEPARTING MOISTURE AND DECREASING CLOUDS EXPECT AIR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO 15 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. WIND SPEEDS OF
8-15KTS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES -30 TO -40 DEGREES WITH
COLDER WIND CHILLS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY WITH
GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO
AROUND -20C ON SUNDAY AND A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT AS
RIDGING OCCURS ALOFT AND THE SURFACE RIDGE STARTS TO SLIDE EAST,
PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO MODERATING LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW.

CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY, COLD AIR TEMPERATURES AND WARM WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN MAY RESULT IN TEA KETTLING STEAM CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OFF THE LAKE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AT BTV DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ELSEWHERE COLD BY BENIGN
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE NEGATIVE
SINGLE DIGITS TO POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS WITH DECREASING WINDS.
SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY
NIGHT...REMAINING BELOW ZERO.

MONDAY CONTINUES TO SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE SLIDE
INTO THE ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES NEARING NORMAL IN THE MID TEENS TO
MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK DIGGING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
THAT FORMS LATE MONDAY...TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE. THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE LOW TRACK AND
RESULTING PTYPE AND AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. 12Z GFS TRACKS
SURFACE LOW JUST TO OUR EAST...CROSSING NH ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
GFS ENSEMBLES MEAN SIMILAR WITH THE LOW TRACKING OVER VT/EASTERN VT.
12Z ECWMF SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUN, KEEPING A MORE WESTERLY TRACK
WITH THE LOW MOVING IN THE WESTERN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODEL SIMILARITIES...PRECIP MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST MONDAY NIGHT IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. PWAT ANOMALIES
IN EXCESS OF 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL RESULT IN STORM
TOTAL QPF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES. ANY WARM AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM HOLDS OFF TO THE SOUTH THROUGH AROUND 12Z TUESDAY...MEANING
PRECIP WILL START AS SNOW.

MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL AFFECT PTYPE. GFS WITH THE MORE EASTERLY
TRACK KEEPS COLD AIR ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND WARMER AIR IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND AREAS EAST. WHILE 850MB AND 925MB ZERO DEGREE
LINES ARE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO EACH OTHER THROUGHOUT THE EVENT ON
THE GFS...SOME WINTRY MIX/ICING IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AS ARCTIC
TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THIS EVENT WILL LEAD TO FROZEN GROUND. ECWMF
ON THE OTHER HAND MOVES THE WARM AIR WEST OF THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY...BUT PERSISTENT NE FLOW DOWN INTO THE VALLEY WILL KEEP LOW
LEVEL/NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES AOB FREEZING. THIS COULD BE THE SET
UP FOR A SIGNIFICANT ICING EVENT.

SO WITH ALL OF THESE FACTORS YET TO BE RESOLVED BY THE MODELS WHAT
WE CAN EXPECT IS A VERY MOIST STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
CENTRAL LOW PRESSURE FALLING INTO THE 970-980MB RANGE AS IT PASSES
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL START AS SNOW WITH PORTIONS OF THE AREA SEEING WINTRY
MIX DURING THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO
BE AN ISSUE AS SOUTHERLY JET AT 850MB WITH SPEEDS GREATER THAN 50KTS
ENTERS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY STRENGTHENS DURING THE DAY. ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS STORM, STRONG NW WINDS TAKE OVER AT 30-45KTS.

WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL BE DEPARTING NORTH AND EAST WITH SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW PRODUCING
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AT MSS, WITH VFR ELSEWHERE. AN EVENTUAL
DETERIORATION ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE TAFS AS ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED SNOW SQUALLS PUSH EASTWARD. EXPECT A SHORT-DURATION (AN
HOUR OR LESS) VISIBILITY DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR IN SNOW SQUALLS WITH A
GUSTY WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST. SEE TAFS FOR SPECIFIC
TIMING, BUT IS GENERALLY IN THE 02-06Z WINDOW. GREATEST IMPACT TO
BTV TERMINAL AND AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS AROUND 05Z. MORE RAPID
CLEARING TOWARD VFR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 07Z, THOUGH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AS HIGH AS
25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COASTAL
STORM WILL SPREAD HEAVY MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION NWD INTO THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD IFR AVIATION WX CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ029-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LOCONTO/BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KALY 130014
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS AHEAD OF IT.
BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT...THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 635 PM EST...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AHEAD
OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED SNOW SQUALLS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES. ANY
SNOW SQUALLS WOULD LIKELY REDUCE VISIBILITY SIGNIFICANTLY FOR A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THE CLOUDS ARE TAKING THERE TIME FILLING IN
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SO SOME MINOR CHANGES WERE
MADE TO SKYCOVER PRIOR TO 10 PM...THE INITIAL SURGE OF SNOW
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED SQUALLS IS MOVING EAST OF LAKES ONTARIO...AND
ERIE...AND WILL REACH THE WRN DACKS BETWEEN 8-10 PM EST WITH THE
LIGHT ACCUMS. THE LATEST 3-KM HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS BAND
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE DACKS AROUND MIDNIGHT. SOME
MINOR CHANGES WERE ALSO MADE TO THE POP TRENDS.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE
TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEKEND. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
10 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO 15 ABOVE ZERO SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FA WITH A WIND CHILL WARNING
STARTING AT 3 AM FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BE MAINLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIND CHILL WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL
OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL BE WITH US OVER THE WEEKEND
IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT AS AN ARCTIC AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION BY SUNDAY. H8 TEMPS DROP TO 27 TO 34
DEGREES BELOW ZERO BY SATURDAY EVENING. HAVE GONE WITH A NON-
DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPS ON SATURDAY AS THE LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THE HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE SAME WITH THE TEMPS DROPPING
ALL DAY ON SATURDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP FROM 10 BELOW TO
15 ABOVE ZERO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TO 15 BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE
ZERO BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. WIND CHILLS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE
FROM 10 BELOW TO 35 BELOW ZERO WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE ESPECIALLY BRUTAL AS AIR TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO 5 BELOW TO NEAR 30 BELOW ZERO WITH WIND CHILL
VALUES 25 BELOW TO NEAR 50 BELOW ZERO.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER OUR REGION
ON SUNDAY AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL STILL BE FAIRLY STRONG ON SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING
LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
ZERO TO 15 ABOVE ZERO RANGE WITH THE LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT BETWEEN 10
BELOW AND 5 ABOVE ZERO.

MONDAY WILL FEATURE INCREASING CLOUDS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HIGHS WILL MODERATE
ON MONDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTHWEST TO UPPER 20S
SOUTHEAST WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA
LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE
AS TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM... AT LEAST IN ITS
EARLY STAGES. TWO TO SIX INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT... WHICH IS MORE OR LESS THE START OF THE EVENT. BEYOND THAT
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE AS THERE IS
PLENTY OF MILD AIR TO BE DRAWN IN OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THUS
THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY WILL BE CRUCIAL. RIGHT NOW...THE
TRACK IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM ABOUT CHARLOTTE NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH ALBANY.

BECAUSE THE TRACK IS NOT SEEN AS GOING FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO
GIVE US AN ALL SNOW EVENT...INDICATIONS ARE PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY
OUTSIDE OF THE ADIRONDACKS...BEFORE EVERYTHING TAPERS OFF AS SNOW
TUESDAY NIGHT.  THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT ANY DECENT PERIOD OF RAIN...AS IS EXPECTED RIGHT
NOW...WILL KEEP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT BAY.

BROAD LAKE ENHANCEMENT ON INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING STORM WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS OF LIGHT AMOUNTS GOING FOR
MANY AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR
WEDNESDAY.  BUT THE ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN RAPIDLY ON THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN...BUT WITHOUT THE EXTREME COLD WE/RE
EXPECTING THIS WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S THROUGH THE
UPPER 40S ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 30 DEGREES ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY HIGHS WILL REBOUND SOMEWHAT.  OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 20S IN
THE LOWER MID HUDSON VALLEY.  TUESDAY NIGHT...THEY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 20S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 30S DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER...AND
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDEST...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO THE UPPER TEENS DOWN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLIPPER LOW WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...AS THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. A NW FLOW OF ARCTIC
AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT PERIOD
WITH GUSTY WINDS.

THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS OR A SQUALL FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH...IMPACTING
KGFL/KALB/KPSF BTWN 04Z-09Z. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE DUE TO VERY LIMITED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. A VCSH WAS USED AT KALB/KPSF AFTER 05Z...AND A TEMPO
WAS USED FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL BTWN 04Z-06Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE DOMINATE...ASIDE FOR SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS/ISOLD SQUALLS ESPECIALLY AT KPSF/KGFL. CIGS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 4-9 KFT AGL RANGE. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
LATE TOMORROW MORNING...SOME LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS OR MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL LINGER. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
FRIGID NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PM.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4-10 KTS PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT...THEN VEER TO THE W TO NW AT 6-12 KTS BEFORE DAYBREAK
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE
OF THE ARCTIC FRONT LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AT
12-20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH BITTER COLD AIR IN PLACE...ICE COVERAGE ON RIVERS AND LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS EVENING...BUT THIS
WILL AMOUNT TO LITTLE IF ANY HYDROLOGIC SIGNIFICANCE.

HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING ONE TO THREE INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT
COULD OCCUR...AND MUCH OF THIS COULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. IF
THIS RAIN WERE TO MATERIALIZE...IT COULD HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS...ESP CONSIDERING THE GROUND WILL BE FULLY
FROZEN BY THAT TIME...ALLOWING MUCH OF THE PRECIP TO BE RUNOFF.
DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE CERTAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-064>066-083-084.
MA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11



000
FXUS61 KALY 130014
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
714 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS AHEAD OF IT.
BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT...THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 635 PM EST...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AHEAD
OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED SNOW SQUALLS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES. ANY
SNOW SQUALLS WOULD LIKELY REDUCE VISIBILITY SIGNIFICANTLY FOR A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THE CLOUDS ARE TAKING THERE TIME FILLING IN
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SO SOME MINOR CHANGES WERE
MADE TO SKYCOVER PRIOR TO 10 PM...THE INITIAL SURGE OF SNOW
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED SQUALLS IS MOVING EAST OF LAKES ONTARIO...AND
ERIE...AND WILL REACH THE WRN DACKS BETWEEN 8-10 PM EST WITH THE
LIGHT ACCUMS. THE LATEST 3-KM HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS BAND
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE DACKS AROUND MIDNIGHT. SOME
MINOR CHANGES WERE ALSO MADE TO THE POP TRENDS.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE
TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEKEND. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
10 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO 15 ABOVE ZERO SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FA WITH A WIND CHILL WARNING
STARTING AT 3 AM FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BE MAINLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIND CHILL WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL
OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL BE WITH US OVER THE WEEKEND
IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT AS AN ARCTIC AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION BY SUNDAY. H8 TEMPS DROP TO 27 TO 34
DEGREES BELOW ZERO BY SATURDAY EVENING. HAVE GONE WITH A NON-
DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPS ON SATURDAY AS THE LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THE HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE SAME WITH THE TEMPS DROPPING
ALL DAY ON SATURDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP FROM 10 BELOW TO
15 ABOVE ZERO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TO 15 BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE
ZERO BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. WIND CHILLS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE
FROM 10 BELOW TO 35 BELOW ZERO WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE ESPECIALLY BRUTAL AS AIR TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO 5 BELOW TO NEAR 30 BELOW ZERO WITH WIND CHILL
VALUES 25 BELOW TO NEAR 50 BELOW ZERO.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER OUR REGION
ON SUNDAY AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL STILL BE FAIRLY STRONG ON SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING
LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
ZERO TO 15 ABOVE ZERO RANGE WITH THE LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT BETWEEN 10
BELOW AND 5 ABOVE ZERO.

MONDAY WILL FEATURE INCREASING CLOUDS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HIGHS WILL MODERATE
ON MONDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTHWEST TO UPPER 20S
SOUTHEAST WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA
LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE
AS TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM... AT LEAST IN ITS
EARLY STAGES. TWO TO SIX INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT... WHICH IS MORE OR LESS THE START OF THE EVENT. BEYOND THAT
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE AS THERE IS
PLENTY OF MILD AIR TO BE DRAWN IN OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THUS
THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY WILL BE CRUCIAL. RIGHT NOW...THE
TRACK IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM ABOUT CHARLOTTE NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH ALBANY.

BECAUSE THE TRACK IS NOT SEEN AS GOING FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO
GIVE US AN ALL SNOW EVENT...INDICATIONS ARE PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY
OUTSIDE OF THE ADIRONDACKS...BEFORE EVERYTHING TAPERS OFF AS SNOW
TUESDAY NIGHT.  THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT ANY DECENT PERIOD OF RAIN...AS IS EXPECTED RIGHT
NOW...WILL KEEP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT BAY.

BROAD LAKE ENHANCEMENT ON INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING STORM WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS OF LIGHT AMOUNTS GOING FOR
MANY AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR
WEDNESDAY.  BUT THE ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN RAPIDLY ON THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN...BUT WITHOUT THE EXTREME COLD WE/RE
EXPECTING THIS WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S THROUGH THE
UPPER 40S ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 30 DEGREES ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY HIGHS WILL REBOUND SOMEWHAT.  OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 20S IN
THE LOWER MID HUDSON VALLEY.  TUESDAY NIGHT...THEY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 20S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 30S DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER...AND
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDEST...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO THE UPPER TEENS DOWN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLIPPER LOW WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...AS THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. A NW FLOW OF ARCTIC
AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT PERIOD
WITH GUSTY WINDS.

THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS OR A SQUALL FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH...IMPACTING
KGFL/KALB/KPSF BTWN 04Z-09Z. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE DUE TO VERY LIMITED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. A VCSH WAS USED AT KALB/KPSF AFTER 05Z...AND A TEMPO
WAS USED FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL BTWN 04Z-06Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE DOMINATE...ASIDE FOR SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS/ISOLD SQUALLS ESPECIALLY AT KPSF/KGFL. CIGS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 4-9 KFT AGL RANGE. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
LATE TOMORROW MORNING...SOME LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS OR MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL LINGER. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
FRIGID NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PM.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4-10 KTS PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT...THEN VEER TO THE W TO NW AT 6-12 KTS BEFORE DAYBREAK
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE
OF THE ARCTIC FRONT LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AT
12-20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH BITTER COLD AIR IN PLACE...ICE COVERAGE ON RIVERS AND LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS EVENING...BUT THIS
WILL AMOUNT TO LITTLE IF ANY HYDROLOGIC SIGNIFICANCE.

HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING ONE TO THREE INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT
COULD OCCUR...AND MUCH OF THIS COULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. IF
THIS RAIN WERE TO MATERIALIZE...IT COULD HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS...ESP CONSIDERING THE GROUND WILL BE FULLY
FROZEN BY THAT TIME...ALLOWING MUCH OF THE PRECIP TO BE RUNOFF.
DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE CERTAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-064>066-083-084.
MA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KALY 122335
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
635 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS AHEAD OF IT.
BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT...THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 634 PM EST...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AHEAD
OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED SNOW SQUALLS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES. ANY
SNOW SQUALLS WOULD LIKELY REDUCE VISIBILITY SIGNIFICANTLY FOR A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THE CLOUDS ARE TAKING THERE TIME FILLING IN
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SO SOME MINOR CHANGES WERE
MADE TO SKYCOVER PRIOR TO 10 PM...THE INITIAL SURGE OF SNOW
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED SQUALLS IS MOVING EAST OF LAKES ONTARIO...AND
ERIE...AND WILL REACH THE WRN DACKS BETWEEN 8-10 PM EST WITH THE
LIGHT ACCUMS. THE LATEST 3-KM HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS BAND
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE DACKS AROUND MIDNIGHT. SOME
MINOR CHANGES WERE ALSO MADE TO THE POP TRENDS.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE
TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEKEND. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
10 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO 15 ABOVE ZERO SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FA WITH A WIND CHILL WARNING
STARTING AT 3 AM FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BE MAINLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIND CHILL WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL
OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL BE WITH US OVER THE WEEKEND
IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT AS AN ARCTIC AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION BY SUNDAY. H8 TEMPS DROP TO 27 TO 34
DEGREES BELOW ZERO BY SATURDAY EVENING. HAVE GONE WITH A NON-
DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPS ON SATURDAY AS THE LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THE HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE SAME WITH THE TEMPS DROPPING
ALL DAY ON SATURDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP FROM 10 BELOW TO
15 ABOVE ZERO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TO 15 BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE
ZERO BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. WIND CHILLS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE
FROM 10 BELOW TO 35 BELOW ZERO WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE ESPECIALLY BRUTAL AS AIR TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO 5 BELOW TO NEAR 30 BELOW ZERO WITH WIND CHILL
VALUES 25 BELOW TO NEAR 50 BELOW ZERO.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER OUR REGION
ON SUNDAY AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL STILL BE FAIRLY STRONG ON SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING
LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
ZERO TO 15 ABOVE ZERO RANGE WITH THE LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT BETWEEN 10
BELOW AND 5 ABOVE ZERO.

MONDAY WILL FEATURE INCREASING CLOUDS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HIGHS WILL MODERATE
ON MONDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTHWEST TO UPPER 20S
SOUTHEAST WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA
LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE
AS TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM... AT LEAST IN ITS
EARLY STAGES. TWO TO SIX INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT... WHICH IS MORE OR LESS THE START OF THE EVENT. BEYOND THAT
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE AS THERE IS
PLENTY OF MILD AIR TO BE DRAWN IN OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THUS
THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY WILL BE CRUCIAL. RIGHT NOW...THE
TRACK IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM ABOUT CHARLOTTE NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH ALBANY.

BECAUSE THE TRACK IS NOT SEEN AS GOING FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO
GIVE US AN ALL SNOW EVENT...INDICATIONS ARE PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY
OUTSIDE OF THE ADIRONDACKS...BEFORE EVERYTHING TAPERS OFF AS SNOW
TUESDAY NIGHT.  THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT ANY DECENT PERIOD OF RAIN...AS IS EXPECTED RIGHT
NOW...WILL KEEP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT BAY.

BROAD LAKE ENHANCEMENT ON INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING STORM WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS OF LIGHT AMOUNTS GOING FOR
MANY AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR
WEDNESDAY.  BUT THE ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN RAPIDLY ON THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN...BUT WITHOUT THE EXTREME COLD WE/RE
EXPECTING THIS WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S THROUGH THE
UPPER 40S ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 30 DEGREES ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY HIGHS WILL REBOUND SOMEWHAT.  OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 20S IN
THE LOWER MID HUDSON VALLEY.  TUESDAY NIGHT...THEY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 20S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 30S DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER...AND
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDEST...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO THE UPPER TEENS DOWN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BE S-SW AT AROUND 5-10 KTS. SKIES WILL
FEATURE BKN/OVC PASSING CIRRUS WITH SOME FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE
THIS EVENING AS AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO APPROACH FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR A
ROGUE SNOW SHOWER OR SNOW SQUALL FOR LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AT KALB AND KPSF...BUT AS EARLY AS 03Z AT KGFL. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE DUE TO LIMITED
MOISTURE IN PLACE...SO WILL ONLY ADDRESS WITH VCSH. DID NOT
INCLUDE MENTION OF VCSH AT KPOU AS ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO STAY PRIMARILY NORTH. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD CONTINUE
TO BE VFR TONIGHT WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AROUND 4-8 KFT...AND SW WINDS
AROUND 5 KTS. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SWITCH TO THE WEST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS 12Z SATURDAY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...IN THE
20-25 KNOT RANGE ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO
SIG WX.
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN...SLEET.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...FZRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH BITTER COLD AIR IN PLACE...ICE COVERAGE ON RIVERS AND LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS EVENING...BUT THIS
WILL AMOUNT TO LITTLE IF ANY HYDROLOGIC SIGNIFICANCE.

HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING ONE TO THREE INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT
COULD OCCUR...AND MUCH OF THIS COULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. IF
THIS RAIN WERE TO MATERIALIZE...IT COULD HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS...ESP CONSIDERING THE GROUND WILL BE FULLY
FROZEN BY THAT TIME...ALLOWING MUCH OF THE PRECIP TO BE RUNOFF.
DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE CERTAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-064>066-083-084.
MA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...11



000
FXUS61 KALY 122335
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
635 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS AHEAD OF IT.
BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT...THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 634 PM EST...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AHEAD
OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED SNOW SQUALLS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES. ANY
SNOW SQUALLS WOULD LIKELY REDUCE VISIBILITY SIGNIFICANTLY FOR A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THE CLOUDS ARE TAKING THERE TIME FILLING IN
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SO SOME MINOR CHANGES WERE
MADE TO SKYCOVER PRIOR TO 10 PM...THE INITIAL SURGE OF SNOW
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED SQUALLS IS MOVING EAST OF LAKES ONTARIO...AND
ERIE...AND WILL REACH THE WRN DACKS BETWEEN 8-10 PM EST WITH THE
LIGHT ACCUMS. THE LATEST 3-KM HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS BAND
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE DACKS AROUND MIDNIGHT. SOME
MINOR CHANGES WERE ALSO MADE TO THE POP TRENDS.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE
TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEKEND. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
10 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO 15 ABOVE ZERO SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FA WITH A WIND CHILL WARNING
STARTING AT 3 AM FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BE MAINLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIND CHILL WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL
OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL BE WITH US OVER THE WEEKEND
IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT AS AN ARCTIC AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION BY SUNDAY. H8 TEMPS DROP TO 27 TO 34
DEGREES BELOW ZERO BY SATURDAY EVENING. HAVE GONE WITH A NON-
DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPS ON SATURDAY AS THE LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THE HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE SAME WITH THE TEMPS DROPPING
ALL DAY ON SATURDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP FROM 10 BELOW TO
15 ABOVE ZERO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TO 15 BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE
ZERO BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. WIND CHILLS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE
FROM 10 BELOW TO 35 BELOW ZERO WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE ESPECIALLY BRUTAL AS AIR TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO 5 BELOW TO NEAR 30 BELOW ZERO WITH WIND CHILL
VALUES 25 BELOW TO NEAR 50 BELOW ZERO.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER OUR REGION
ON SUNDAY AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL STILL BE FAIRLY STRONG ON SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING
LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
ZERO TO 15 ABOVE ZERO RANGE WITH THE LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT BETWEEN 10
BELOW AND 5 ABOVE ZERO.

MONDAY WILL FEATURE INCREASING CLOUDS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HIGHS WILL MODERATE
ON MONDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTHWEST TO UPPER 20S
SOUTHEAST WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA
LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE
AS TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM... AT LEAST IN ITS
EARLY STAGES. TWO TO SIX INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT... WHICH IS MORE OR LESS THE START OF THE EVENT. BEYOND THAT
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE AS THERE IS
PLENTY OF MILD AIR TO BE DRAWN IN OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THUS
THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY WILL BE CRUCIAL. RIGHT NOW...THE
TRACK IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM ABOUT CHARLOTTE NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH ALBANY.

BECAUSE THE TRACK IS NOT SEEN AS GOING FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO
GIVE US AN ALL SNOW EVENT...INDICATIONS ARE PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY
OUTSIDE OF THE ADIRONDACKS...BEFORE EVERYTHING TAPERS OFF AS SNOW
TUESDAY NIGHT.  THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT ANY DECENT PERIOD OF RAIN...AS IS EXPECTED RIGHT
NOW...WILL KEEP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT BAY.

BROAD LAKE ENHANCEMENT ON INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING STORM WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS OF LIGHT AMOUNTS GOING FOR
MANY AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR
WEDNESDAY.  BUT THE ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN RAPIDLY ON THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN...BUT WITHOUT THE EXTREME COLD WE/RE
EXPECTING THIS WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S THROUGH THE
UPPER 40S ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 30 DEGREES ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY HIGHS WILL REBOUND SOMEWHAT.  OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 20S IN
THE LOWER MID HUDSON VALLEY.  TUESDAY NIGHT...THEY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 20S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 30S DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER...AND
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDEST...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO THE UPPER TEENS DOWN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BE S-SW AT AROUND 5-10 KTS. SKIES WILL
FEATURE BKN/OVC PASSING CIRRUS WITH SOME FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE
THIS EVENING AS AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO APPROACH FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR A
ROGUE SNOW SHOWER OR SNOW SQUALL FOR LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AT KALB AND KPSF...BUT AS EARLY AS 03Z AT KGFL. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE DUE TO LIMITED
MOISTURE IN PLACE...SO WILL ONLY ADDRESS WITH VCSH. DID NOT
INCLUDE MENTION OF VCSH AT KPOU AS ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO STAY PRIMARILY NORTH. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD CONTINUE
TO BE VFR TONIGHT WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AROUND 4-8 KFT...AND SW WINDS
AROUND 5 KTS. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SWITCH TO THE WEST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS 12Z SATURDAY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...IN THE
20-25 KNOT RANGE ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO
SIG WX.
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN...SLEET.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...FZRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH BITTER COLD AIR IN PLACE...ICE COVERAGE ON RIVERS AND LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS EVENING...BUT THIS
WILL AMOUNT TO LITTLE IF ANY HYDROLOGIC SIGNIFICANCE.

HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING ONE TO THREE INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT
COULD OCCUR...AND MUCH OF THIS COULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. IF
THIS RAIN WERE TO MATERIALIZE...IT COULD HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS...ESP CONSIDERING THE GROUND WILL BE FULLY
FROZEN BY THAT TIME...ALLOWING MUCH OF THE PRECIP TO BE RUNOFF.
DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE CERTAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-064>066-083-084.
MA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KBTV 122327
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
627 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY
NEW YORK THROUGH THIS EVENING...IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
ARCTIC FRONT FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS. MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR
MASS OF THE WINTER SEASON...WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS
SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT...AND INTO SUNDAY. A MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MONDAY...WITH A STRONG AND MOISTURE LADEN
STORM SYSTEM BRINGING POTENTIAL MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 627 PM EST FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AT
600 PM. DID OPT TO TREND SKY COVER LOWER TO PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLEAR ACROSS OUR VERMONT COUNTIES THIS EVENING AS A NICE CLEAR
SLOT HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING ARCTIC BOUNDARY.
OTHERWISE LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED. AN INTENSE LAKE SNOW BAND HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF ST LAWRENCE COUNTY
NY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. WHITEOUT CONDS LIKELY WITH IMPRESSIVE
SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE FROM CANTON
SOUTHWEST TOWARD GOUVERNEUR/HAMMOND AREA THROUGH 900 PM MAKING FOR
DIFFICULT TO LOCALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. IF TRAVELING ACROSS THESE
AREAS THIS EVENING PLEASE PLAN ACCORDINGLY. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 315 PM FRIDAY...
MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF SHARP AND WELL-DEFINED ARCTIC
BNDRY MOVING SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OTTAWA VALLEY AND
GEORGIAN BAY IN ONTARIO. THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW- LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EMANATING OFF
LAKE ONTARIO TO REACH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE THESE BANDS LEADING TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (3-7")
LOCALLY ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY - ESPECIALLY SRN/WRN SECTIONS.
HAVE CONTINUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 06Z FOR POTENTIAL
SLOW TRAVEL CONDITIONS OWING TO SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW
VSBY.

THE ARCTIC FRONT ITSELF IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW BAND OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND SQUALLS, PER OTTAWA RADAR. THE MESOSCALE
MODELS...INCLUDING BTV- 4KM AND 12KM WRF...AND BTV SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER...SUGGEST THIS BAND OF ACTIVITY WILL MANAGE TO SHIFT
ESEWD ACROSS NRN NY BETWEEN 3-06Z...AND THROUGH THE BTV AREA
06-08Z. MAY SEE SOME DECREASE EAST OF THE GREENS...BUT MAINTAINED
CHC -SW EASTERN SECTIONS LATE. A QUICK DUSTING TO 2" OF VERY DRY
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN TIME OF DAY/WEEK...LIGHT TRAFFIC
VOLUME AND TEMPS ALREADY WELL BELOW FREEZING SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
IMPACT FROM ANY SNOW SQUALL ACTIVITY.

LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE VERY STRONG BEHIND THE
BNDRY...CURRENTLY SEEING MID-DAY READINGS -20F NORTH OF LAKE
HURON...AND 850MB TEMPS ARE -25C TO -32C. THE LOW-LEVEL CAA
ARRIVES FIRST IN NRN NY...DRIVING DAYBREAK TEMPS DOWN TO -10 TO
-15F FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. WON/T BE QUITE
AS COLD ACROSS VT (+2F AT BTV 12Z AND 5-10F EAST OF THE
GREENS)...BUT NW WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL
RESULT IN VERY LOW WIND CHILLS.

WIND CHILLS BECOME MORE SEVERE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY -
ESPECIALLY ACROSS VT - WITH NEAR STEADY TO FALLING TEMPS NEAR
ZERO. WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO ALL DAY SATURDAY ACROSS NRN NY...WITH
HIGHS -5F TO -10F IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NRN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS. WIND CHILLS 25 TO 35 BELOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN
NY. HAVE MAINTAINED WIND CHILL WARNINGS...WHICH TAKE EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW STRAY FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY...BUT GENERALLY DRY AND BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. MAY SEE A
FEW STRATOCU DUE TO COLD AIR ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...BUT NW RATHER THAN N WINDS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
FETCH/EXTENT OF ANY LAKE-INDUCED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO AROUND -30C SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW SITTING OVER THE
REGION, DEPARTING MOISTURE AND DECREASING CLOUDS EXPECT AIR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO 15 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. WIND SPEEDS OF
8-15KTS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES -30 TO -40 DEGREES WITH
COLDER WIND CHILLS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY WITH
GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO
AROUND -20C ON SUNDAY AND A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT AS
RIDGING OCCURS ALOFT AND THE SURFACE RIDGE STARTS TO SLIDE EAST,
PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO MODERATING LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW.

CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY, COLD AIR TEMPERATURES AND WARM WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN MAY RESULT IN TEA KETTLING STEAM CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OFF THE LAKE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AT BTV DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ELSEWHERE COLD BY BENIGN
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE NEGATIVE
SINGLE DIGITS TO POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS WITH DECREASING WINDS.
SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY
NIGHT...REMAINING BELOW ZERO.

MONDAY CONTINUES TO SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE SLIDE
INTO THE ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES NEARING NORMAL IN THE MID TEENS TO
MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK DIGGING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
THAT FORMS LATE MONDAY...TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE. THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE LOW TRACK AND
RESULTING PTYPE AND AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. 12Z GFS TRACKS
SURFACE LOW JUST TO OUR EAST...CROSSING NH ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
GFS ENSEMBLES MEAN SIMILAR WITH THE LOW TRACKING OVER VT/EASTERN VT.
12Z ECWMF SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUN, KEEPING A MORE WESTERLY TRACK
WITH THE LOW MOVING IN THE WESTERN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODEL SIMILARITIES...PRECIP MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST MONDAY NIGHT IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. PWAT ANOMALIES
IN EXCESS OF 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL RESULT IN STORM
TOTAL QPF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES. ANY WARM AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM HOLDS OFF TO THE SOUTH THROUGH AROUND 12Z TUESDAY...MEANING
PRECIP WILL START AS SNOW.

MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL AFFECT PTYPE. GFS WITH THE MORE EASTERLY
TRACK KEEPS COLD AIR ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND WARMER AIR IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND AREAS EAST. WHILE 850MB AND 925MB ZERO DEGREE
LINES ARE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO EACH OTHER THROUGHOUT THE EVENT ON
THE GFS...SOME WINTRY MIX/ICING IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AS ARCTIC
TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THIS EVENT WILL LEAD TO FROZEN GROUND. ECWMF
ON THE OTHER HAND MOVES THE WARM AIR WEST OF THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY...BUT PERSISTENT NE FLOW DOWN INTO THE VALLEY WILL KEEP LOW
LEVEL/NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES AOB FREEZING. THIS COULD BE THE SET
UP FOR A SIGNIFICANT ICING EVENT.

SO WITH ALL OF THESE FACTORS YET TO BE RESOLVED BY THE MODELS WHAT
WE CAN EXPECT IS A VERY MOIST STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
CENTRAL LOW PRESSURE FALLING INTO THE 970-980MB RANGE AS IT PASSES
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL START AS SNOW WITH PORTIONS OF THE AREA SEEING WINTRY
MIX DURING THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO
BE AN ISSUE AS SOUTHERLY JET AT 850MB WITH SPEEDS GREATER THAN 50KTS
ENTERS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY STRENGTHENS DURING THE DAY. ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS STORM, STRONG NW WINDS TAKE OVER AT 30-45KTS.

WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL BE DEPARTING NORTH AND EAST WITH SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW PRODUCING
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AT MSS, WITH VFR ELSEWHERE. AN EVENTUAL
DETERIORATION ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE TAFS AS ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED SNOW SQUALLS PUSH EASTWARD. EXPECT A SHORT-DURATION (AN
HOUR OR LESS) VISIBILITY DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR IN SNOW SQUALLS WITH A
GUSTY WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST. SEE TAFS FOR SPECIFIC
TIMING, BUT IS GENERALLY IN THE 02-06Z WINDOW. GREATEST IMPACT TO
BTV TERMINAL AND AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS AROUND 05Z. MORE RAPID
CLEARING TOWARD VFR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 07Z, THOUGH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AS HIGH AS
25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COASTAL
STORM WILL SPREAD HEAVY MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION NWD INTO THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD IFR AVIATION WX CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ029-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LOCONTO/BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 122327
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
627 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY
NEW YORK THROUGH THIS EVENING...IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
ARCTIC FRONT FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS. MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR
MASS OF THE WINTER SEASON...WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS
SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT...AND INTO SUNDAY. A MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MONDAY...WITH A STRONG AND MOISTURE LADEN
STORM SYSTEM BRINGING POTENTIAL MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 627 PM EST FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AT
600 PM. DID OPT TO TREND SKY COVER LOWER TO PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLEAR ACROSS OUR VERMONT COUNTIES THIS EVENING AS A NICE CLEAR
SLOT HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING ARCTIC BOUNDARY.
OTHERWISE LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED. AN INTENSE LAKE SNOW BAND HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF ST LAWRENCE COUNTY
NY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. WHITEOUT CONDS LIKELY WITH IMPRESSIVE
SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE FROM CANTON
SOUTHWEST TOWARD GOUVERNEUR/HAMMOND AREA THROUGH 900 PM MAKING FOR
DIFFICULT TO LOCALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. IF TRAVELING ACROSS THESE
AREAS THIS EVENING PLEASE PLAN ACCORDINGLY. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 315 PM FRIDAY...
MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF SHARP AND WELL-DEFINED ARCTIC
BNDRY MOVING SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OTTAWA VALLEY AND
GEORGIAN BAY IN ONTARIO. THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW- LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EMANATING OFF
LAKE ONTARIO TO REACH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE THESE BANDS LEADING TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (3-7")
LOCALLY ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY - ESPECIALLY SRN/WRN SECTIONS.
HAVE CONTINUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 06Z FOR POTENTIAL
SLOW TRAVEL CONDITIONS OWING TO SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW
VSBY.

THE ARCTIC FRONT ITSELF IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW BAND OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND SQUALLS, PER OTTAWA RADAR. THE MESOSCALE
MODELS...INCLUDING BTV- 4KM AND 12KM WRF...AND BTV SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER...SUGGEST THIS BAND OF ACTIVITY WILL MANAGE TO SHIFT
ESEWD ACROSS NRN NY BETWEEN 3-06Z...AND THROUGH THE BTV AREA
06-08Z. MAY SEE SOME DECREASE EAST OF THE GREENS...BUT MAINTAINED
CHC -SW EASTERN SECTIONS LATE. A QUICK DUSTING TO 2" OF VERY DRY
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN TIME OF DAY/WEEK...LIGHT TRAFFIC
VOLUME AND TEMPS ALREADY WELL BELOW FREEZING SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
IMPACT FROM ANY SNOW SQUALL ACTIVITY.

LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE VERY STRONG BEHIND THE
BNDRY...CURRENTLY SEEING MID-DAY READINGS -20F NORTH OF LAKE
HURON...AND 850MB TEMPS ARE -25C TO -32C. THE LOW-LEVEL CAA
ARRIVES FIRST IN NRN NY...DRIVING DAYBREAK TEMPS DOWN TO -10 TO
-15F FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. WON/T BE QUITE
AS COLD ACROSS VT (+2F AT BTV 12Z AND 5-10F EAST OF THE
GREENS)...BUT NW WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL
RESULT IN VERY LOW WIND CHILLS.

WIND CHILLS BECOME MORE SEVERE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY -
ESPECIALLY ACROSS VT - WITH NEAR STEADY TO FALLING TEMPS NEAR
ZERO. WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO ALL DAY SATURDAY ACROSS NRN NY...WITH
HIGHS -5F TO -10F IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NRN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS. WIND CHILLS 25 TO 35 BELOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN
NY. HAVE MAINTAINED WIND CHILL WARNINGS...WHICH TAKE EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW STRAY FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY...BUT GENERALLY DRY AND BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. MAY SEE A
FEW STRATOCU DUE TO COLD AIR ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...BUT NW RATHER THAN N WINDS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
FETCH/EXTENT OF ANY LAKE-INDUCED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO AROUND -30C SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW SITTING OVER THE
REGION, DEPARTING MOISTURE AND DECREASING CLOUDS EXPECT AIR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO 15 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. WIND SPEEDS OF
8-15KTS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES -30 TO -40 DEGREES WITH
COLDER WIND CHILLS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY WITH
GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO
AROUND -20C ON SUNDAY AND A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT AS
RIDGING OCCURS ALOFT AND THE SURFACE RIDGE STARTS TO SLIDE EAST,
PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO MODERATING LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW.

CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY, COLD AIR TEMPERATURES AND WARM WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN MAY RESULT IN TEA KETTLING STEAM CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OFF THE LAKE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AT BTV DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ELSEWHERE COLD BY BENIGN
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE NEGATIVE
SINGLE DIGITS TO POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS WITH DECREASING WINDS.
SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY
NIGHT...REMAINING BELOW ZERO.

MONDAY CONTINUES TO SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE SLIDE
INTO THE ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES NEARING NORMAL IN THE MID TEENS TO
MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK DIGGING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
THAT FORMS LATE MONDAY...TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE. THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE LOW TRACK AND
RESULTING PTYPE AND AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. 12Z GFS TRACKS
SURFACE LOW JUST TO OUR EAST...CROSSING NH ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
GFS ENSEMBLES MEAN SIMILAR WITH THE LOW TRACKING OVER VT/EASTERN VT.
12Z ECWMF SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUN, KEEPING A MORE WESTERLY TRACK
WITH THE LOW MOVING IN THE WESTERN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODEL SIMILARITIES...PRECIP MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST MONDAY NIGHT IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. PWAT ANOMALIES
IN EXCESS OF 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL RESULT IN STORM
TOTAL QPF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES. ANY WARM AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM HOLDS OFF TO THE SOUTH THROUGH AROUND 12Z TUESDAY...MEANING
PRECIP WILL START AS SNOW.

MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL AFFECT PTYPE. GFS WITH THE MORE EASTERLY
TRACK KEEPS COLD AIR ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND WARMER AIR IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND AREAS EAST. WHILE 850MB AND 925MB ZERO DEGREE
LINES ARE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO EACH OTHER THROUGHOUT THE EVENT ON
THE GFS...SOME WINTRY MIX/ICING IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AS ARCTIC
TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THIS EVENT WILL LEAD TO FROZEN GROUND. ECWMF
ON THE OTHER HAND MOVES THE WARM AIR WEST OF THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY...BUT PERSISTENT NE FLOW DOWN INTO THE VALLEY WILL KEEP LOW
LEVEL/NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES AOB FREEZING. THIS COULD BE THE SET
UP FOR A SIGNIFICANT ICING EVENT.

SO WITH ALL OF THESE FACTORS YET TO BE RESOLVED BY THE MODELS WHAT
WE CAN EXPECT IS A VERY MOIST STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
CENTRAL LOW PRESSURE FALLING INTO THE 970-980MB RANGE AS IT PASSES
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL START AS SNOW WITH PORTIONS OF THE AREA SEEING WINTRY
MIX DURING THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO
BE AN ISSUE AS SOUTHERLY JET AT 850MB WITH SPEEDS GREATER THAN 50KTS
ENTERS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY STRENGTHENS DURING THE DAY. ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS STORM, STRONG NW WINDS TAKE OVER AT 30-45KTS.

WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL BE DEPARTING NORTH AND EAST WITH SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW PRODUCING
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AT MSS, WITH VFR ELSEWHERE. AN EVENTUAL
DETERIORATION ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE TAFS AS ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED SNOW SQUALLS PUSH EASTWARD. EXPECT A SHORT-DURATION (AN
HOUR OR LESS) VISIBILITY DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR IN SNOW SQUALLS WITH A
GUSTY WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST. SEE TAFS FOR SPECIFIC
TIMING, BUT IS GENERALLY IN THE 02-06Z WINDOW. GREATEST IMPACT TO
BTV TERMINAL AND AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS AROUND 05Z. MORE RAPID
CLEARING TOWARD VFR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 07Z, THOUGH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AS HIGH AS
25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COASTAL
STORM WILL SPREAD HEAVY MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION NWD INTO THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD IFR AVIATION WX CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ029-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LOCONTO/BANACOS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 122327
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
627 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY
NEW YORK THROUGH THIS EVENING...IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
ARCTIC FRONT FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS. MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR
MASS OF THE WINTER SEASON...WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS
SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT...AND INTO SUNDAY. A MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MONDAY...WITH A STRONG AND MOISTURE LADEN
STORM SYSTEM BRINGING POTENTIAL MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 627 PM EST FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AT
600 PM. DID OPT TO TREND SKY COVER LOWER TO PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLEAR ACROSS OUR VERMONT COUNTIES THIS EVENING AS A NICE CLEAR
SLOT HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING ARCTIC BOUNDARY.
OTHERWISE LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED. AN INTENSE LAKE SNOW BAND HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF ST LAWRENCE COUNTY
NY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. WHITEOUT CONDS LIKELY WITH IMPRESSIVE
SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE FROM CANTON
SOUTHWEST TOWARD GOUVERNEUR/HAMMOND AREA THROUGH 900 PM MAKING FOR
DIFFICULT TO LOCALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. IF TRAVELING ACROSS THESE
AREAS THIS EVENING PLEASE PLAN ACCORDINGLY. HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 315 PM FRIDAY...
MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF SHARP AND WELL-DEFINED ARCTIC
BNDRY MOVING SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OTTAWA VALLEY AND
GEORGIAN BAY IN ONTARIO. THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW- LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EMANATING OFF
LAKE ONTARIO TO REACH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE THESE BANDS LEADING TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (3-7")
LOCALLY ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY - ESPECIALLY SRN/WRN SECTIONS.
HAVE CONTINUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 06Z FOR POTENTIAL
SLOW TRAVEL CONDITIONS OWING TO SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW
VSBY.

THE ARCTIC FRONT ITSELF IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW BAND OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND SQUALLS, PER OTTAWA RADAR. THE MESOSCALE
MODELS...INCLUDING BTV- 4KM AND 12KM WRF...AND BTV SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER...SUGGEST THIS BAND OF ACTIVITY WILL MANAGE TO SHIFT
ESEWD ACROSS NRN NY BETWEEN 3-06Z...AND THROUGH THE BTV AREA
06-08Z. MAY SEE SOME DECREASE EAST OF THE GREENS...BUT MAINTAINED
CHC -SW EASTERN SECTIONS LATE. A QUICK DUSTING TO 2" OF VERY DRY
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN TIME OF DAY/WEEK...LIGHT TRAFFIC
VOLUME AND TEMPS ALREADY WELL BELOW FREEZING SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
IMPACT FROM ANY SNOW SQUALL ACTIVITY.

LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE VERY STRONG BEHIND THE
BNDRY...CURRENTLY SEEING MID-DAY READINGS -20F NORTH OF LAKE
HURON...AND 850MB TEMPS ARE -25C TO -32C. THE LOW-LEVEL CAA
ARRIVES FIRST IN NRN NY...DRIVING DAYBREAK TEMPS DOWN TO -10 TO
-15F FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. WON/T BE QUITE
AS COLD ACROSS VT (+2F AT BTV 12Z AND 5-10F EAST OF THE
GREENS)...BUT NW WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL
RESULT IN VERY LOW WIND CHILLS.

WIND CHILLS BECOME MORE SEVERE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY -
ESPECIALLY ACROSS VT - WITH NEAR STEADY TO FALLING TEMPS NEAR
ZERO. WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO ALL DAY SATURDAY ACROSS NRN NY...WITH
HIGHS -5F TO -10F IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NRN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS. WIND CHILLS 25 TO 35 BELOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN
NY. HAVE MAINTAINED WIND CHILL WARNINGS...WHICH TAKE EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW STRAY FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY...BUT GENERALLY DRY AND BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. MAY SEE A
FEW STRATOCU DUE TO COLD AIR ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...BUT NW RATHER THAN N WINDS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
FETCH/EXTENT OF ANY LAKE-INDUCED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO AROUND -30C SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW SITTING OVER THE
REGION, DEPARTING MOISTURE AND DECREASING CLOUDS EXPECT AIR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO 15 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. WIND SPEEDS OF
8-15KTS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES -30 TO -40 DEGREES WITH
COLDER WIND CHILLS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY WITH
GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO
AROUND -20C ON SUNDAY AND A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT AS
RIDGING OCCURS ALOFT AND THE SURFACE RIDGE STARTS TO SLIDE EAST,
PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO MODERATING LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW.

CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY, COLD AIR TEMPERATURES AND WARM WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN MAY RESULT IN TEA KETTLING STEAM CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OFF THE LAKE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AT BTV DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ELSEWHERE COLD BY BENIGN
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE NEGATIVE
SINGLE DIGITS TO POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS WITH DECREASING WINDS.
SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY
NIGHT...REMAINING BELOW ZERO.

MONDAY CONTINUES TO SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE SLIDE
INTO THE ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES NEARING NORMAL IN THE MID TEENS TO
MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK DIGGING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
THAT FORMS LATE MONDAY...TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE. THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE LOW TRACK AND
RESULTING PTYPE AND AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. 12Z GFS TRACKS
SURFACE LOW JUST TO OUR EAST...CROSSING NH ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
GFS ENSEMBLES MEAN SIMILAR WITH THE LOW TRACKING OVER VT/EASTERN VT.
12Z ECWMF SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUN, KEEPING A MORE WESTERLY TRACK
WITH THE LOW MOVING IN THE WESTERN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODEL SIMILARITIES...PRECIP MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST MONDAY NIGHT IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. PWAT ANOMALIES
IN EXCESS OF 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL RESULT IN STORM
TOTAL QPF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES. ANY WARM AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM HOLDS OFF TO THE SOUTH THROUGH AROUND 12Z TUESDAY...MEANING
PRECIP WILL START AS SNOW.

MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL AFFECT PTYPE. GFS WITH THE MORE EASTERLY
TRACK KEEPS COLD AIR ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND WARMER AIR IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND AREAS EAST. WHILE 850MB AND 925MB ZERO DEGREE
LINES ARE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO EACH OTHER THROUGHOUT THE EVENT ON
THE GFS...SOME WINTRY MIX/ICING IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AS ARCTIC
TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THIS EVENT WILL LEAD TO FROZEN GROUND. ECWMF
ON THE OTHER HAND MOVES THE WARM AIR WEST OF THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY...BUT PERSISTENT NE FLOW DOWN INTO THE VALLEY WILL KEEP LOW
LEVEL/NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES AOB FREEZING. THIS COULD BE THE SET
UP FOR A SIGNIFICANT ICING EVENT.

SO WITH ALL OF THESE FACTORS YET TO BE RESOLVED BY THE MODELS WHAT
WE CAN EXPECT IS A VERY MOIST STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
CENTRAL LOW PRESSURE FALLING INTO THE 970-980MB RANGE AS IT PASSES
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL START AS SNOW WITH PORTIONS OF THE AREA SEEING WINTRY
MIX DURING THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO
BE AN ISSUE AS SOUTHERLY JET AT 850MB WITH SPEEDS GREATER THAN 50KTS
ENTERS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY STRENGTHENS DURING THE DAY. ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS STORM, STRONG NW WINDS TAKE OVER AT 30-45KTS.

WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL BE DEPARTING NORTH AND EAST WITH SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW PRODUCING
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AT MSS, WITH VFR ELSEWHERE. AN EVENTUAL
DETERIORATION ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE TAFS AS ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED SNOW SQUALLS PUSH EASTWARD. EXPECT A SHORT-DURATION (AN
HOUR OR LESS) VISIBILITY DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR IN SNOW SQUALLS WITH A
GUSTY WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST. SEE TAFS FOR SPECIFIC
TIMING, BUT IS GENERALLY IN THE 02-06Z WINDOW. GREATEST IMPACT TO
BTV TERMINAL AND AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS AROUND 05Z. MORE RAPID
CLEARING TOWARD VFR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 07Z, THOUGH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AS HIGH AS
25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COASTAL
STORM WILL SPREAD HEAVY MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION NWD INTO THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD IFR AVIATION WX CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ029-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...JMG/BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LOCONTO/BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 122315
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
615 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY
NEW YORK THROUGH THIS EVENING...IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
ARCTIC FRONT FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS. MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR
MASS OF THE WINTER SEASON...WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS
SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT...AND INTO SUNDAY. A MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MONDAY...WITH A STRONG AND MOISTURE LADEN
STORM SYSTEM BRINGING POTENTIAL MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF SHARP
AND WELL-DEFINED ARCTIC BNDRY MOVING SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OTTAWA VALLEY AND GEORGIAN BAY IN ONTARIO. THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EMANATING OFF LAKE ONTARIO TO REACH THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THESE BANDS LEADING TO MODERATE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (3-7") LOCALLY ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY -
ESPECIALLY SRN/WRN SECTIONS. HAVE CONTINUED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THROUGH 06Z FOR POTENTIAL SLOW TRAVEL CONDITIONS OWING TO
SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VSBY.

THE ARCTIC FRONT ITSELF IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW BAND OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND SQUALLS, PER OTTAWA RADAR. THE MESOSCALE
MODELS...INCLUDING BTV- 4KM AND 12KM WRF...AND BTV SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER...SUGGEST THIS BAND OF ACTIVITY WILL MANAGE TO SHIFT
ESEWD ACROSS NRN NY BETWEEN 3-06Z...AND THROUGH THE BTV AREA
06-08Z. MAY SEE SOME DECREASE EAST OF THE GREENS...BUT MAINTAINED
CHC -SW EASTERN SECTIONS LATE. A QUICK DUSTING TO 2" OF VERY DRY
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN TIME OF DAY/WEEK...LIGHT TRAFFIC
VOLUME AND TEMPS ALREADY WELL BELOW FREEZING SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
IMPACT FROM ANY SNOW SQUALL ACTIVITY.

LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE VERY STRONG BEHIND THE
BNDRY...CURRENTLY SEEING MID-DAY READINGS -20F NORTH OF LAKE
HURON...AND 850MB TEMPS ARE -25C TO -32C. THE LOW-LEVEL CAA
ARRIVES FIRST IN NRN NY...DRIVING DAYBREAK TEMPS DOWN TO -10 TO
-15F FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. WON/T BE QUITE
AS COLD ACROSS VT (+2F AT BTV 12Z AND 5-10F EAST OF THE
GREENS)...BUT NW WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL
RESULT IN VERY LOW WIND CHILLS.

WIND CHILLS BECOME MORE SEVERE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY -
ESPECIALLY ACROSS VT - WITH NEAR STEADY TO FALLING TEMPS NEAR
ZERO. WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO ALL DAY SATURDAY ACROSS NRN NY...WITH
HIGHS -5F TO -10F IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NRN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS. WIND CHILLS 25 TO 35 BELOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN
NY. HAVE MAINTAINED WIND CHILL WARNINGS...WHICH TAKE EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW STRAY FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY...BUT GENERALLY DRY AND BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. MAY SEE A
FEW STRATOCU DUE TO COLD AIR ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...BUT NW RATHER THAN N WINDS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
FETCH/EXTENT OF ANY LAKE-INDUCED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO AROUND -30C SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW SITTING OVER THE
REGION, DEPARTING MOISTURE AND DECREASING CLOUDS EXPECT AIR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO 15 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. WIND SPEEDS OF
8-15KTS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES -30 TO -40 DEGREES WITH
COLDER WIND CHILLS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY WITH
GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO
AROUND -20C ON SUNDAY AND A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT AS
RIDGING OCCURS ALOFT AND THE SURFACE RIDGE STARTS TO SLIDE EAST,
PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO MODERATING LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW.

CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY, COLD AIR TEMPERATURES AND WARM WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN MAY RESULT IN TEA KETTLING STEAM CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OFF THE LAKE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AT BTV DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ELSEWHERE COLD BY BENIGN
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE NEGATIVE
SINGLE DIGITS TO POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS WITH DECREASING WINDS.
SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY
NIGHT...REMAINING BELOW ZERO.

MONDAY CONTINUES TO SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE SLIDE
INTO THE ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES NEARING NORMAL IN THE MID TEENS TO
MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK DIGGING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
THAT FORMS LATE MONDAY...TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE. THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE LOW TRACK AND
RESULTING PTYPE AND AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. 12Z GFS TRACKS
SURFACE LOW JUST TO OUR EAST...CROSSING NH ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
GFS ENSEMBLES MEAN SIMILAR WITH THE LOW TRACKING OVER VT/EASTERN VT.
12Z ECWMF SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUN, KEEPING A MORE WESTERLY TRACK
WITH THE LOW MOVING IN THE WESTERN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODEL SIMILARITIES...PRECIP MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST MONDAY NIGHT IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. PWAT ANOMALIES
IN EXCESS OF 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL RESULT IN STORM
TOTAL QPF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES. ANY WARM AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM HOLDS OFF TO THE SOUTH THROUGH AROUND 12Z TUESDAY...MEANING
PRECIP WILL START AS SNOW.

MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL AFFECT PTYPE. GFS WITH THE MORE EASTERLY
TRACK KEEPS COLD AIR ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND WARMER AIR IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND AREAS EAST. WHILE 850MB AND 925MB ZERO DEGREE
LINES ARE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO EACH OTHER THROUGHOUT THE EVENT ON
THE GFS...SOME WINTRY MIX/ICING IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AS ARCTIC
TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THIS EVENT WILL LEAD TO FROZEN GROUND. ECWMF
ON THE OTHER HAND MOVES THE WARM AIR WEST OF THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY...BUT PERSISTENT NE FLOW DOWN INTO THE VALLEY WILL KEEP LOW
LEVEL/NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES AOB FREEZING. THIS COULD BE THE SET
UP FOR A SIGNIFICANT ICING EVENT.

SO WITH ALL OF THESE FACTORS YET TO BE RESOLVED BY THE MODELS WHAT
WE CAN EXPECT IS A VERY MOIST STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
CENTRAL LOW PRESSURE FALLING INTO THE 970-980MB RANGE AS IT PASSES
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL START AS SNOW WITH PORTIONS OF THE AREA SEEING WINTRY
MIX DURING THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO
BE AN ISSUE AS SOUTHERLY JET AT 850MB WITH SPEEDS GREATER THAN 50KTS
ENTERS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY STRENGTHENS DURING THE DAY. ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS STORM, STRONG NW WINDS TAKE OVER AT 30-45KTS.

WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL BE DEPARTING NORTH AND EAST WITH SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW PRODUCING
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AT MSS, WITH VFR ELSEWHERE. AN EVENTUAL
DETERIORATION ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE TAFS AS ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED SNOW SQUALLS PUSH EASTWARD. EXPECT A SHORT-DURATION (AN
HOUR OR LESS) VISIBILITY DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR IN SNOW SQUALLS WITH A
GUSTY WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST. SEE TAFS FOR SPECIFIC
TIMING, BUT IS GENERALLY IN THE 02-06Z WINDOW. GREATEST IMPACT TO
BTV TERMINAL AND AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS AROUND 05Z. MORE RAPID
CLEARING TOWARD VFR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 07Z, THOUGH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AS HIGH AS
25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COASTAL
STORM WILL SPREAD HEAVY MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION NWD INTO THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD IFR AVIATION WX CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ029-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 122315
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
615 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY
NEW YORK THROUGH THIS EVENING...IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
ARCTIC FRONT FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS. MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR
MASS OF THE WINTER SEASON...WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS
SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT...AND INTO SUNDAY. A MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MONDAY...WITH A STRONG AND MOISTURE LADEN
STORM SYSTEM BRINGING POTENTIAL MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF SHARP
AND WELL-DEFINED ARCTIC BNDRY MOVING SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OTTAWA VALLEY AND GEORGIAN BAY IN ONTARIO. THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EMANATING OFF LAKE ONTARIO TO REACH THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THESE BANDS LEADING TO MODERATE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (3-7") LOCALLY ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY -
ESPECIALLY SRN/WRN SECTIONS. HAVE CONTINUED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THROUGH 06Z FOR POTENTIAL SLOW TRAVEL CONDITIONS OWING TO
SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VSBY.

THE ARCTIC FRONT ITSELF IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW BAND OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND SQUALLS, PER OTTAWA RADAR. THE MESOSCALE
MODELS...INCLUDING BTV- 4KM AND 12KM WRF...AND BTV SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER...SUGGEST THIS BAND OF ACTIVITY WILL MANAGE TO SHIFT
ESEWD ACROSS NRN NY BETWEEN 3-06Z...AND THROUGH THE BTV AREA
06-08Z. MAY SEE SOME DECREASE EAST OF THE GREENS...BUT MAINTAINED
CHC -SW EASTERN SECTIONS LATE. A QUICK DUSTING TO 2" OF VERY DRY
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN TIME OF DAY/WEEK...LIGHT TRAFFIC
VOLUME AND TEMPS ALREADY WELL BELOW FREEZING SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
IMPACT FROM ANY SNOW SQUALL ACTIVITY.

LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE VERY STRONG BEHIND THE
BNDRY...CURRENTLY SEEING MID-DAY READINGS -20F NORTH OF LAKE
HURON...AND 850MB TEMPS ARE -25C TO -32C. THE LOW-LEVEL CAA
ARRIVES FIRST IN NRN NY...DRIVING DAYBREAK TEMPS DOWN TO -10 TO
-15F FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. WON/T BE QUITE
AS COLD ACROSS VT (+2F AT BTV 12Z AND 5-10F EAST OF THE
GREENS)...BUT NW WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL
RESULT IN VERY LOW WIND CHILLS.

WIND CHILLS BECOME MORE SEVERE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY -
ESPECIALLY ACROSS VT - WITH NEAR STEADY TO FALLING TEMPS NEAR
ZERO. WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO ALL DAY SATURDAY ACROSS NRN NY...WITH
HIGHS -5F TO -10F IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NRN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS. WIND CHILLS 25 TO 35 BELOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN
NY. HAVE MAINTAINED WIND CHILL WARNINGS...WHICH TAKE EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW STRAY FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY...BUT GENERALLY DRY AND BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. MAY SEE A
FEW STRATOCU DUE TO COLD AIR ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...BUT NW RATHER THAN N WINDS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
FETCH/EXTENT OF ANY LAKE-INDUCED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO AROUND -30C SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW SITTING OVER THE
REGION, DEPARTING MOISTURE AND DECREASING CLOUDS EXPECT AIR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO 15 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. WIND SPEEDS OF
8-15KTS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES -30 TO -40 DEGREES WITH
COLDER WIND CHILLS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY WITH
GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO
AROUND -20C ON SUNDAY AND A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT AS
RIDGING OCCURS ALOFT AND THE SURFACE RIDGE STARTS TO SLIDE EAST,
PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO MODERATING LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW.

CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY, COLD AIR TEMPERATURES AND WARM WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN MAY RESULT IN TEA KETTLING STEAM CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OFF THE LAKE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AT BTV DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ELSEWHERE COLD BY BENIGN
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE NEGATIVE
SINGLE DIGITS TO POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS WITH DECREASING WINDS.
SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY
NIGHT...REMAINING BELOW ZERO.

MONDAY CONTINUES TO SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE SLIDE
INTO THE ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES NEARING NORMAL IN THE MID TEENS TO
MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK DIGGING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
THAT FORMS LATE MONDAY...TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE. THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE LOW TRACK AND
RESULTING PTYPE AND AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. 12Z GFS TRACKS
SURFACE LOW JUST TO OUR EAST...CROSSING NH ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
GFS ENSEMBLES MEAN SIMILAR WITH THE LOW TRACKING OVER VT/EASTERN VT.
12Z ECWMF SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUN, KEEPING A MORE WESTERLY TRACK
WITH THE LOW MOVING IN THE WESTERN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODEL SIMILARITIES...PRECIP MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST MONDAY NIGHT IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. PWAT ANOMALIES
IN EXCESS OF 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL RESULT IN STORM
TOTAL QPF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES. ANY WARM AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM HOLDS OFF TO THE SOUTH THROUGH AROUND 12Z TUESDAY...MEANING
PRECIP WILL START AS SNOW.

MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL AFFECT PTYPE. GFS WITH THE MORE EASTERLY
TRACK KEEPS COLD AIR ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND WARMER AIR IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND AREAS EAST. WHILE 850MB AND 925MB ZERO DEGREE
LINES ARE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO EACH OTHER THROUGHOUT THE EVENT ON
THE GFS...SOME WINTRY MIX/ICING IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AS ARCTIC
TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THIS EVENT WILL LEAD TO FROZEN GROUND. ECWMF
ON THE OTHER HAND MOVES THE WARM AIR WEST OF THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY...BUT PERSISTENT NE FLOW DOWN INTO THE VALLEY WILL KEEP LOW
LEVEL/NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES AOB FREEZING. THIS COULD BE THE SET
UP FOR A SIGNIFICANT ICING EVENT.

SO WITH ALL OF THESE FACTORS YET TO BE RESOLVED BY THE MODELS WHAT
WE CAN EXPECT IS A VERY MOIST STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
CENTRAL LOW PRESSURE FALLING INTO THE 970-980MB RANGE AS IT PASSES
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL START AS SNOW WITH PORTIONS OF THE AREA SEEING WINTRY
MIX DURING THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO
BE AN ISSUE AS SOUTHERLY JET AT 850MB WITH SPEEDS GREATER THAN 50KTS
ENTERS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY STRENGTHENS DURING THE DAY. ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS STORM, STRONG NW WINDS TAKE OVER AT 30-45KTS.

WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL BE DEPARTING NORTH AND EAST WITH SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW PRODUCING
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AT MSS, WITH VFR ELSEWHERE. AN EVENTUAL
DETERIORATION ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE TAFS AS ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED SNOW SQUALLS PUSH EASTWARD. EXPECT A SHORT-DURATION (AN
HOUR OR LESS) VISIBILITY DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR IN SNOW SQUALLS WITH A
GUSTY WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST. SEE TAFS FOR SPECIFIC
TIMING, BUT IS GENERALLY IN THE 02-06Z WINDOW. GREATEST IMPACT TO
BTV TERMINAL AND AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS AROUND 05Z. MORE RAPID
CLEARING TOWARD VFR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 07Z, THOUGH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AS HIGH AS
25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COASTAL
STORM WILL SPREAD HEAVY MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION NWD INTO THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD IFR AVIATION WX CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ029-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KBTV 122315
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
615 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY
NEW YORK THROUGH THIS EVENING...IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
ARCTIC FRONT FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS. MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR
MASS OF THE WINTER SEASON...WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS
SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT...AND INTO SUNDAY. A MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MONDAY...WITH A STRONG AND MOISTURE LADEN
STORM SYSTEM BRINGING POTENTIAL MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF SHARP
AND WELL-DEFINED ARCTIC BNDRY MOVING SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OTTAWA VALLEY AND GEORGIAN BAY IN ONTARIO. THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EMANATING OFF LAKE ONTARIO TO REACH THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THESE BANDS LEADING TO MODERATE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (3-7") LOCALLY ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY -
ESPECIALLY SRN/WRN SECTIONS. HAVE CONTINUED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THROUGH 06Z FOR POTENTIAL SLOW TRAVEL CONDITIONS OWING TO
SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VSBY.

THE ARCTIC FRONT ITSELF IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW BAND OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND SQUALLS, PER OTTAWA RADAR. THE MESOSCALE
MODELS...INCLUDING BTV- 4KM AND 12KM WRF...AND BTV SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER...SUGGEST THIS BAND OF ACTIVITY WILL MANAGE TO SHIFT
ESEWD ACROSS NRN NY BETWEEN 3-06Z...AND THROUGH THE BTV AREA
06-08Z. MAY SEE SOME DECREASE EAST OF THE GREENS...BUT MAINTAINED
CHC -SW EASTERN SECTIONS LATE. A QUICK DUSTING TO 2" OF VERY DRY
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN TIME OF DAY/WEEK...LIGHT TRAFFIC
VOLUME AND TEMPS ALREADY WELL BELOW FREEZING SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
IMPACT FROM ANY SNOW SQUALL ACTIVITY.

LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE VERY STRONG BEHIND THE
BNDRY...CURRENTLY SEEING MID-DAY READINGS -20F NORTH OF LAKE
HURON...AND 850MB TEMPS ARE -25C TO -32C. THE LOW-LEVEL CAA
ARRIVES FIRST IN NRN NY...DRIVING DAYBREAK TEMPS DOWN TO -10 TO
-15F FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. WON/T BE QUITE
AS COLD ACROSS VT (+2F AT BTV 12Z AND 5-10F EAST OF THE
GREENS)...BUT NW WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL
RESULT IN VERY LOW WIND CHILLS.

WIND CHILLS BECOME MORE SEVERE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY -
ESPECIALLY ACROSS VT - WITH NEAR STEADY TO FALLING TEMPS NEAR
ZERO. WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO ALL DAY SATURDAY ACROSS NRN NY...WITH
HIGHS -5F TO -10F IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NRN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS. WIND CHILLS 25 TO 35 BELOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN
NY. HAVE MAINTAINED WIND CHILL WARNINGS...WHICH TAKE EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW STRAY FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY...BUT GENERALLY DRY AND BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. MAY SEE A
FEW STRATOCU DUE TO COLD AIR ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...BUT NW RATHER THAN N WINDS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
FETCH/EXTENT OF ANY LAKE-INDUCED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO AROUND -30C SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW SITTING OVER THE
REGION, DEPARTING MOISTURE AND DECREASING CLOUDS EXPECT AIR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO 15 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. WIND SPEEDS OF
8-15KTS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES -30 TO -40 DEGREES WITH
COLDER WIND CHILLS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY WITH
GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO
AROUND -20C ON SUNDAY AND A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT AS
RIDGING OCCURS ALOFT AND THE SURFACE RIDGE STARTS TO SLIDE EAST,
PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO MODERATING LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW.

CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY, COLD AIR TEMPERATURES AND WARM WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN MAY RESULT IN TEA KETTLING STEAM CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OFF THE LAKE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AT BTV DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ELSEWHERE COLD BY BENIGN
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE NEGATIVE
SINGLE DIGITS TO POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS WITH DECREASING WINDS.
SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY
NIGHT...REMAINING BELOW ZERO.

MONDAY CONTINUES TO SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE SLIDE
INTO THE ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES NEARING NORMAL IN THE MID TEENS TO
MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK DIGGING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
THAT FORMS LATE MONDAY...TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE. THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE LOW TRACK AND
RESULTING PTYPE AND AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. 12Z GFS TRACKS
SURFACE LOW JUST TO OUR EAST...CROSSING NH ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
GFS ENSEMBLES MEAN SIMILAR WITH THE LOW TRACKING OVER VT/EASTERN VT.
12Z ECWMF SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUN, KEEPING A MORE WESTERLY TRACK
WITH THE LOW MOVING IN THE WESTERN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODEL SIMILARITIES...PRECIP MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST MONDAY NIGHT IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. PWAT ANOMALIES
IN EXCESS OF 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL RESULT IN STORM
TOTAL QPF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES. ANY WARM AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM HOLDS OFF TO THE SOUTH THROUGH AROUND 12Z TUESDAY...MEANING
PRECIP WILL START AS SNOW.

MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL AFFECT PTYPE. GFS WITH THE MORE EASTERLY
TRACK KEEPS COLD AIR ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND WARMER AIR IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND AREAS EAST. WHILE 850MB AND 925MB ZERO DEGREE
LINES ARE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO EACH OTHER THROUGHOUT THE EVENT ON
THE GFS...SOME WINTRY MIX/ICING IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AS ARCTIC
TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THIS EVENT WILL LEAD TO FROZEN GROUND. ECWMF
ON THE OTHER HAND MOVES THE WARM AIR WEST OF THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY...BUT PERSISTENT NE FLOW DOWN INTO THE VALLEY WILL KEEP LOW
LEVEL/NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES AOB FREEZING. THIS COULD BE THE SET
UP FOR A SIGNIFICANT ICING EVENT.

SO WITH ALL OF THESE FACTORS YET TO BE RESOLVED BY THE MODELS WHAT
WE CAN EXPECT IS A VERY MOIST STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
CENTRAL LOW PRESSURE FALLING INTO THE 970-980MB RANGE AS IT PASSES
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL START AS SNOW WITH PORTIONS OF THE AREA SEEING WINTRY
MIX DURING THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO
BE AN ISSUE AS SOUTHERLY JET AT 850MB WITH SPEEDS GREATER THAN 50KTS
ENTERS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY STRENGTHENS DURING THE DAY. ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS STORM, STRONG NW WINDS TAKE OVER AT 30-45KTS.

WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL BE DEPARTING NORTH AND EAST WITH SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW PRODUCING
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AT MSS, WITH VFR ELSEWHERE. AN EVENTUAL
DETERIORATION ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE TAFS AS ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED SNOW SQUALLS PUSH EASTWARD. EXPECT A SHORT-DURATION (AN
HOUR OR LESS) VISIBILITY DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR IN SNOW SQUALLS WITH A
GUSTY WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST. SEE TAFS FOR SPECIFIC
TIMING, BUT IS GENERALLY IN THE 02-06Z WINDOW. GREATEST IMPACT TO
BTV TERMINAL AND AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS AROUND 05Z. MORE RAPID
CLEARING TOWARD VFR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 07Z, THOUGH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AS HIGH AS
25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COASTAL
STORM WILL SPREAD HEAVY MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION NWD INTO THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD IFR AVIATION WX CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ029-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KBTV 122315
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
615 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY
NEW YORK THROUGH THIS EVENING...IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
ARCTIC FRONT FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS. MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR
MASS OF THE WINTER SEASON...WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS
SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT...AND INTO SUNDAY. A MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MONDAY...WITH A STRONG AND MOISTURE LADEN
STORM SYSTEM BRINGING POTENTIAL MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF SHARP
AND WELL-DEFINED ARCTIC BNDRY MOVING SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OTTAWA VALLEY AND GEORGIAN BAY IN ONTARIO. THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EMANATING OFF LAKE ONTARIO TO REACH THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THESE BANDS LEADING TO MODERATE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (3-7") LOCALLY ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY -
ESPECIALLY SRN/WRN SECTIONS. HAVE CONTINUED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THROUGH 06Z FOR POTENTIAL SLOW TRAVEL CONDITIONS OWING TO
SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VSBY.

THE ARCTIC FRONT ITSELF IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW BAND OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND SQUALLS, PER OTTAWA RADAR. THE MESOSCALE
MODELS...INCLUDING BTV- 4KM AND 12KM WRF...AND BTV SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER...SUGGEST THIS BAND OF ACTIVITY WILL MANAGE TO SHIFT
ESEWD ACROSS NRN NY BETWEEN 3-06Z...AND THROUGH THE BTV AREA
06-08Z. MAY SEE SOME DECREASE EAST OF THE GREENS...BUT MAINTAINED
CHC -SW EASTERN SECTIONS LATE. A QUICK DUSTING TO 2" OF VERY DRY
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN TIME OF DAY/WEEK...LIGHT TRAFFIC
VOLUME AND TEMPS ALREADY WELL BELOW FREEZING SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
IMPACT FROM ANY SNOW SQUALL ACTIVITY.

LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE VERY STRONG BEHIND THE
BNDRY...CURRENTLY SEEING MID-DAY READINGS -20F NORTH OF LAKE
HURON...AND 850MB TEMPS ARE -25C TO -32C. THE LOW-LEVEL CAA
ARRIVES FIRST IN NRN NY...DRIVING DAYBREAK TEMPS DOWN TO -10 TO
-15F FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. WON/T BE QUITE
AS COLD ACROSS VT (+2F AT BTV 12Z AND 5-10F EAST OF THE
GREENS)...BUT NW WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL
RESULT IN VERY LOW WIND CHILLS.

WIND CHILLS BECOME MORE SEVERE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY -
ESPECIALLY ACROSS VT - WITH NEAR STEADY TO FALLING TEMPS NEAR
ZERO. WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO ALL DAY SATURDAY ACROSS NRN NY...WITH
HIGHS -5F TO -10F IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NRN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS. WIND CHILLS 25 TO 35 BELOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN
NY. HAVE MAINTAINED WIND CHILL WARNINGS...WHICH TAKE EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW STRAY FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY...BUT GENERALLY DRY AND BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. MAY SEE A
FEW STRATOCU DUE TO COLD AIR ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...BUT NW RATHER THAN N WINDS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
FETCH/EXTENT OF ANY LAKE-INDUCED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO AROUND -30C SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW SITTING OVER THE
REGION, DEPARTING MOISTURE AND DECREASING CLOUDS EXPECT AIR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO 15 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. WIND SPEEDS OF
8-15KTS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES -30 TO -40 DEGREES WITH
COLDER WIND CHILLS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY WITH
GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO
AROUND -20C ON SUNDAY AND A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT AS
RIDGING OCCURS ALOFT AND THE SURFACE RIDGE STARTS TO SLIDE EAST,
PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO MODERATING LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW.

CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY, COLD AIR TEMPERATURES AND WARM WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN MAY RESULT IN TEA KETTLING STEAM CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OFF THE LAKE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AT BTV DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ELSEWHERE COLD BY BENIGN
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE NEGATIVE
SINGLE DIGITS TO POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS WITH DECREASING WINDS.
SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY
NIGHT...REMAINING BELOW ZERO.

MONDAY CONTINUES TO SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE SLIDE
INTO THE ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES NEARING NORMAL IN THE MID TEENS TO
MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK DIGGING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
THAT FORMS LATE MONDAY...TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE. THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE LOW TRACK AND
RESULTING PTYPE AND AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. 12Z GFS TRACKS
SURFACE LOW JUST TO OUR EAST...CROSSING NH ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
GFS ENSEMBLES MEAN SIMILAR WITH THE LOW TRACKING OVER VT/EASTERN VT.
12Z ECWMF SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUN, KEEPING A MORE WESTERLY TRACK
WITH THE LOW MOVING IN THE WESTERN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODEL SIMILARITIES...PRECIP MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST MONDAY NIGHT IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. PWAT ANOMALIES
IN EXCESS OF 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL RESULT IN STORM
TOTAL QPF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES. ANY WARM AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM HOLDS OFF TO THE SOUTH THROUGH AROUND 12Z TUESDAY...MEANING
PRECIP WILL START AS SNOW.

MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL AFFECT PTYPE. GFS WITH THE MORE EASTERLY
TRACK KEEPS COLD AIR ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND WARMER AIR IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND AREAS EAST. WHILE 850MB AND 925MB ZERO DEGREE
LINES ARE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO EACH OTHER THROUGHOUT THE EVENT ON
THE GFS...SOME WINTRY MIX/ICING IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AS ARCTIC
TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THIS EVENT WILL LEAD TO FROZEN GROUND. ECWMF
ON THE OTHER HAND MOVES THE WARM AIR WEST OF THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY...BUT PERSISTENT NE FLOW DOWN INTO THE VALLEY WILL KEEP LOW
LEVEL/NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES AOB FREEZING. THIS COULD BE THE SET
UP FOR A SIGNIFICANT ICING EVENT.

SO WITH ALL OF THESE FACTORS YET TO BE RESOLVED BY THE MODELS WHAT
WE CAN EXPECT IS A VERY MOIST STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
CENTRAL LOW PRESSURE FALLING INTO THE 970-980MB RANGE AS IT PASSES
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL START AS SNOW WITH PORTIONS OF THE AREA SEEING WINTRY
MIX DURING THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO
BE AN ISSUE AS SOUTHERLY JET AT 850MB WITH SPEEDS GREATER THAN 50KTS
ENTERS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY STRENGTHENS DURING THE DAY. ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS STORM, STRONG NW WINDS TAKE OVER AT 30-45KTS.

WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL BE DEPARTING NORTH AND EAST WITH SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW PRODUCING
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AT MSS, WITH VFR ELSEWHERE. AN EVENTUAL
DETERIORATION ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE TAFS AS ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED SNOW SQUALLS PUSH EASTWARD. EXPECT A SHORT-DURATION (AN
HOUR OR LESS) VISIBILITY DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR IN SNOW SQUALLS WITH A
GUSTY WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST. SEE TAFS FOR SPECIFIC
TIMING, BUT IS GENERALLY IN THE 02-06Z WINDOW. GREATEST IMPACT TO
BTV TERMINAL AND AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS AROUND 05Z. MORE RAPID
CLEARING TOWARD VFR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 07Z, THOUGH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AS HIGH AS
25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COASTAL
STORM WILL SPREAD HEAVY MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION NWD INTO THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD IFR AVIATION WX CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ029-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KBTV 122315
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
615 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY
NEW YORK THROUGH THIS EVENING...IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
ARCTIC FRONT FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS. MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR
MASS OF THE WINTER SEASON...WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS
SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT...AND INTO SUNDAY. A MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MONDAY...WITH A STRONG AND MOISTURE LADEN
STORM SYSTEM BRINGING POTENTIAL MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF SHARP
AND WELL-DEFINED ARCTIC BNDRY MOVING SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OTTAWA VALLEY AND GEORGIAN BAY IN ONTARIO. THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EMANATING OFF LAKE ONTARIO TO REACH THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THESE BANDS LEADING TO MODERATE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (3-7") LOCALLY ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY -
ESPECIALLY SRN/WRN SECTIONS. HAVE CONTINUED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THROUGH 06Z FOR POTENTIAL SLOW TRAVEL CONDITIONS OWING TO
SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VSBY.

THE ARCTIC FRONT ITSELF IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW BAND OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND SQUALLS, PER OTTAWA RADAR. THE MESOSCALE
MODELS...INCLUDING BTV- 4KM AND 12KM WRF...AND BTV SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER...SUGGEST THIS BAND OF ACTIVITY WILL MANAGE TO SHIFT
ESEWD ACROSS NRN NY BETWEEN 3-06Z...AND THROUGH THE BTV AREA
06-08Z. MAY SEE SOME DECREASE EAST OF THE GREENS...BUT MAINTAINED
CHC -SW EASTERN SECTIONS LATE. A QUICK DUSTING TO 2" OF VERY DRY
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN TIME OF DAY/WEEK...LIGHT TRAFFIC
VOLUME AND TEMPS ALREADY WELL BELOW FREEZING SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
IMPACT FROM ANY SNOW SQUALL ACTIVITY.

LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE VERY STRONG BEHIND THE
BNDRY...CURRENTLY SEEING MID-DAY READINGS -20F NORTH OF LAKE
HURON...AND 850MB TEMPS ARE -25C TO -32C. THE LOW-LEVEL CAA
ARRIVES FIRST IN NRN NY...DRIVING DAYBREAK TEMPS DOWN TO -10 TO
-15F FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. WON/T BE QUITE
AS COLD ACROSS VT (+2F AT BTV 12Z AND 5-10F EAST OF THE
GREENS)...BUT NW WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL
RESULT IN VERY LOW WIND CHILLS.

WIND CHILLS BECOME MORE SEVERE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY -
ESPECIALLY ACROSS VT - WITH NEAR STEADY TO FALLING TEMPS NEAR
ZERO. WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO ALL DAY SATURDAY ACROSS NRN NY...WITH
HIGHS -5F TO -10F IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NRN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS. WIND CHILLS 25 TO 35 BELOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN
NY. HAVE MAINTAINED WIND CHILL WARNINGS...WHICH TAKE EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW STRAY FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY...BUT GENERALLY DRY AND BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. MAY SEE A
FEW STRATOCU DUE TO COLD AIR ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...BUT NW RATHER THAN N WINDS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
FETCH/EXTENT OF ANY LAKE-INDUCED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO AROUND -30C SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW SITTING OVER THE
REGION, DEPARTING MOISTURE AND DECREASING CLOUDS EXPECT AIR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO 15 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. WIND SPEEDS OF
8-15KTS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES -30 TO -40 DEGREES WITH
COLDER WIND CHILLS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY WITH
GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO
AROUND -20C ON SUNDAY AND A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT AS
RIDGING OCCURS ALOFT AND THE SURFACE RIDGE STARTS TO SLIDE EAST,
PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO MODERATING LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW.

CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY, COLD AIR TEMPERATURES AND WARM WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN MAY RESULT IN TEA KETTLING STEAM CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OFF THE LAKE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AT BTV DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ELSEWHERE COLD BY BENIGN
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE NEGATIVE
SINGLE DIGITS TO POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS WITH DECREASING WINDS.
SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY
NIGHT...REMAINING BELOW ZERO.

MONDAY CONTINUES TO SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE SLIDE
INTO THE ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES NEARING NORMAL IN THE MID TEENS TO
MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK DIGGING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
THAT FORMS LATE MONDAY...TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE. THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE LOW TRACK AND
RESULTING PTYPE AND AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. 12Z GFS TRACKS
SURFACE LOW JUST TO OUR EAST...CROSSING NH ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
GFS ENSEMBLES MEAN SIMILAR WITH THE LOW TRACKING OVER VT/EASTERN VT.
12Z ECWMF SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUN, KEEPING A MORE WESTERLY TRACK
WITH THE LOW MOVING IN THE WESTERN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODEL SIMILARITIES...PRECIP MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST MONDAY NIGHT IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. PWAT ANOMALIES
IN EXCESS OF 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL RESULT IN STORM
TOTAL QPF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES. ANY WARM AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM HOLDS OFF TO THE SOUTH THROUGH AROUND 12Z TUESDAY...MEANING
PRECIP WILL START AS SNOW.

MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL AFFECT PTYPE. GFS WITH THE MORE EASTERLY
TRACK KEEPS COLD AIR ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND WARMER AIR IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND AREAS EAST. WHILE 850MB AND 925MB ZERO DEGREE
LINES ARE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO EACH OTHER THROUGHOUT THE EVENT ON
THE GFS...SOME WINTRY MIX/ICING IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AS ARCTIC
TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THIS EVENT WILL LEAD TO FROZEN GROUND. ECWMF
ON THE OTHER HAND MOVES THE WARM AIR WEST OF THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY...BUT PERSISTENT NE FLOW DOWN INTO THE VALLEY WILL KEEP LOW
LEVEL/NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES AOB FREEZING. THIS COULD BE THE SET
UP FOR A SIGNIFICANT ICING EVENT.

SO WITH ALL OF THESE FACTORS YET TO BE RESOLVED BY THE MODELS WHAT
WE CAN EXPECT IS A VERY MOIST STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
CENTRAL LOW PRESSURE FALLING INTO THE 970-980MB RANGE AS IT PASSES
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL START AS SNOW WITH PORTIONS OF THE AREA SEEING WINTRY
MIX DURING THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO
BE AN ISSUE AS SOUTHERLY JET AT 850MB WITH SPEEDS GREATER THAN 50KTS
ENTERS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY STRENGTHENS DURING THE DAY. ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS STORM, STRONG NW WINDS TAKE OVER AT 30-45KTS.

WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL BE DEPARTING NORTH AND EAST WITH SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW PRODUCING
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AT MSS, WITH VFR ELSEWHERE. AN EVENTUAL
DETERIORATION ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE TAFS AS ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED SNOW SQUALLS PUSH EASTWARD. EXPECT A SHORT-DURATION (AN
HOUR OR LESS) VISIBILITY DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR IN SNOW SQUALLS WITH A
GUSTY WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST. SEE TAFS FOR SPECIFIC
TIMING, BUT IS GENERALLY IN THE 02-06Z WINDOW. GREATEST IMPACT TO
BTV TERMINAL AND AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS AROUND 05Z. MORE RAPID
CLEARING TOWARD VFR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 07Z, THOUGH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AS HIGH AS
25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COASTAL
STORM WILL SPREAD HEAVY MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION NWD INTO THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD IFR AVIATION WX CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ029-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KALY 122236
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
350 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS AHEAD OF IT.
BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT...THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
SNOW SQUALLS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE WITH GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES. ANY SNOW SQUALLS WOULD
LIKELY REDUCE VISIBILITY SIGNIFICANTLY FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE
TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEKEND. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
10 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO 15 ABOVE ZERO SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FA WITH A WIND CHILL WARNING
STARTING AT 3 AM FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BE MAINLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIND CHILL WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL
OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL BE WITH US OVER THE WEEKEND
IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT AS AN ARCTIC AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION BY SUNDAY. H8 TEMPS DROP TO 27 TO 34
DEGREES BELOW ZERO BY SATURDAY EVENING. HAVE GONE WITH A NON-
DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPS ON SATURDAY AS THE LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THE HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE SAME WITH THE TEMPS DROPPING
ALL DAY ON SATURDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP FROM 10 BELOW TO
15 ABOVE ZERO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TO 15 BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE
ZERO BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. WIND CHILLS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE
FROM 10 BELOW TO 35 BELOW ZERO WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE ESPECIALLY BRUTAL AS AIR TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO 5 BELOW TO NEAR 30 BELOW ZERO WITH WIND CHILL
VALUES 25 BELOW TO NEAR 50 BELOW ZERO.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER OUR REGION
ON SUNDAY AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL STILL BE FAIRLY STRONG ON SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING
LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
ZERO TO 15 ABOVE ZERO RANGE WITH THE LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT BETWEEN 10
BELOW AND 5 ABOVE ZERO.

MONDAY WILL FEATURE INCREASING CLOUDS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HIGHS WILL MODERATE
ON MONDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTHWEST TO UPPER 20S
SOUTHEAST WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA
LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE
AS TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM... AT LEAST IN ITS
EARLY STAGES. TWO TO SIX INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT... WHICH IS MORE OR LESS THE START OF THE EVENT. BEYOND THAT
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE AS THERE IS
PLENTY OF MILD AIR TO BE DRAWN IN OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THUS
THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY WILL BE CRUCIAL. RIGHT NOW...THE
TRACK IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM ABOUT CHARLOTTE NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH ALBANY.

BECAUSE THE TRACK IS NOT SEEN AS GOING FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO
GIVE US AN ALL SNOW EVENT...INDICATIONS ARE PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY
OUTSIDE OF THE ADIRONDACKS...BEFORE EVERYTHING TAPERS OFF AS SNOW
TUESDAY NIGHT.  THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT ANY DECENT PERIOD OF RAIN...AS IS EXPECTED RIGHT
NOW...WILL KEEP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT BAY.

BROAD LAKE ENHANCEMENT ON INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING STORM WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS OF LIGHT AMOUNTS GOING FOR
MANY AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR
WEDNESDAY.  BUT THE ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN RAPIDLY ON THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN...BUT WITHOUT THE EXTREME COLD WE/RE
EXPECTING THIS WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S THROUGH THE
UPPER 40S ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 30 DEGREES ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY HIGHS WILL REBOUND SOMEWHAT.  OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 20S IN
THE LOWER MID HUDSON VALLEY.  TUESDAY NIGHT...THEY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 20S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 30S DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER...AND
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDEST...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO THE UPPER TEENS DOWN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BE S-SW AT AROUND 5-10 KTS. SKIES WILL
FEATURE BKN/OVC PASSING CIRRUS WITH SOME FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE
THIS EVENING AS AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO APPROACH FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR A
ROGUE SNOW SHOWER OR SNOW SQUALL FOR LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AT KALB AND KPSF...BUT AS EARLY AS 03Z AT KGFL. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE DUE TO LIMITED
MOISTURE IN PLACE...SO WILL ONLY ADDRESS WITH VCSH. DID NOT
INCLUDE MENTION OF VCSH AT KPOU AS ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO STAY PRIMARILY NORTH. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD CONTINUE
TO BE VFR TONIGHT WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AROUND 4-8 KFT...AND SW WINDS
AROUND 5 KTS. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SWITCH TO THE WEST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS 12Z SATURDAY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...IN THE
20-25 KNOT RANGE ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO
SIG WX.
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN...SLEET.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...FZRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH BITTER COLD AIR IN PLACE...ICE COVERAGE ON RIVERS AND LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS EVENING...BUT THIS
WILL AMOUNT TO LITTLE IF ANY HYDROLOGIC SIGNIFICANCE.

HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING ONE TO THREE INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT
COULD OCCUR...AND MUCH OF THIS COULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. IF
THIS RAIN WERE TO MATERIALIZE...IT COULD HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS...ESP CONSIDERING THE GROUND WILL BE FULLY
FROZEN BY THAT TIME...ALLOWING MUCH OF THE PRECIP TO BE RUNOFF.
DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE CERTAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-064>066-083-084.
MA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...11/FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 122050
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
350 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS AHEAD OF IT.
BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT...THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
SNOW SQUALLS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE WITH GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES. ANY SNOW SQUALLS WOULD
LIKELY REDUCE VISIBILITY SIGNIFICANTLY FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE
TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEKEND. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
10 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO 15 ABOVE ZERO SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FA WITH A WIND CHILL WARNING
STARTING AT 3 AM FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BE MAINLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIND CHILL WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL
OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL BE WITH US OVER THE WEEKEND
IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT AS AN ARCTIC AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION BY SUNDAY. H8 TEMPS DROP TO 27 TO 34
DEGREES BELOW ZERO BY SATURDAY EVENING. HAVE GONE WITH A NON-
DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPS ON SATURDAY AS THE LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THE HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE SAME WITH THE TEMPS DROPPING
ALL DAY ON SATURDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP FROM 10 BELOW TO
15 ABOVE ZERO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TO 15 BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE
ZERO BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. WIND CHILLS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE
FROM 10 BELOW TO 35 BELOW ZERO WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE ESPECIALLY BRUTAL AS AIR TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO 5 BELOW TO NEAR 30 BELOW ZERO WITH WIND CHILL
VALUES 25 BELOW TO NEAR 50 BELOW ZERO.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER OUR REGION
ON SUNDAY AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL STILL BE FAIRLY STRONG ON SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING
LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
ZERO TO 15 ABOVE ZERO RANGE WITH THE LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT BETWEEN 10
BELOW AND 5 ABOVE ZERO.

MONDAY WILL FEATURE INCREASING CLOUDS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HIGHS WILL MODERATE
ON MONDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTHWEST TO UPPER 20S
SOUTHEAST WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA
LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE
AS TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM... AT LEAST IN ITS
EARLY STAGES. TWO TO SIX INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT... WHICH IS MORE OR LESS THE START OF THE EVENT. BEYOND THAT
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE AS THERE IS
PLENTY OF MILD AIR TO BE DRAWN IN OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THUS
THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY WILL BE CRUCIAL. RIGHT NOW...THE
TRACK IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM ABOUT CHARLOTTE NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH ALBANY.

BECAUSE THE TRACK IS NOT SEEN AS GOING FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO
GIVE US AN ALL SNOW EVENT...INDICATIONS ARE PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY
OUTSIDE OF THE ADIRONDACKS...BEFORE EVERYTHING TAPERS OFF AS SNOW
TUESDAY NIGHT.  THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT ANY DECENT PERIOD OF RAIN...AS IS EXPECTED
RIGHT NOW...WILL KEEP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT BAY.

BROAD LAKE ENHANCEMENT ON INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING STORM WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS OF LIGHT AMOUNTS GOING FOR
MANY AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR
WEDNESDAY.  BUT THE ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN RAPIDLY ON THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN...BUT WITHOUT THE EXTREME COLD WE/RE
EXPECTING THIS WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S THROUGH THE
UPPER 40S ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 30 DEGREES ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY HIGHS WILL REBOUND SOMEWHAT.  OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 20S IN
THE LOWER MID HUDSON VALLEY.  TUESDAY NIGHT...THEY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 20S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 30S DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER...AND
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDEST...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO THE UPPER TEENS DOWN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BE S-SW AT AROUND 5-10 KTS. SKIES WILL
FEATURE BKN/OVC PASSING CIRRUS WITH SOME FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE
THIS EVENING AS AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO APPROACH FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR A
ROGUE SNOW SHOWER OR SNOW SQUALL FOR LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AT KALB AND KPSF...BUT AS EARLY AS 03Z AT KGFL. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE DUE TO LIMITED
MOISTURE IN PLACE...SO WILL ONLY ADDRESS WITH VCSH. DID NOT
INCLUDE MENTION OF VCSH AT KPOU AS ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO STAY PRIMARILY NORTH. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD CONTINUE
TO BE VFR TONIGHT WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AROUND 4-8 KFT...AND SW WINDS
AROUND 5 KTS. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SWITCH TO THE WEST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS 12Z SATURDAY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...IN THE
20-25 KNOT RANGE ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO
SIG WX.
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN...SLEET.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...FZRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH BITTER COLD AIR IN PLACE...ICE COVERAGE ON RIVERS AND LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS EVENING...BUT THIS
WILL AMOUNT TO LITTLE IF ANY HYDROLOGIC SIGNIFICANCE.

HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING ONE TO THREE INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT
COULD OCCUR...AND MUCH OF THIS COULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. IF
THIS RAIN WERE TO MATERIALIZE...IT COULD HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS...ESP CONSIDERING THE GROUND WILL BE FULLY
FROZEN BY THAT TIME...ALLOWING MUCH OF THE PRECIP TO BE RUNOFF.
DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE CERTAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-064>066-083-084.
MA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...11/FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 122050
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
350 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS AHEAD OF IT.
BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT...THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
SNOW SQUALLS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE WITH GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES. ANY SNOW SQUALLS WOULD
LIKELY REDUCE VISIBILITY SIGNIFICANTLY FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE
TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEKEND. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
10 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO 15 ABOVE ZERO SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FA WITH A WIND CHILL WARNING
STARTING AT 3 AM FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BE MAINLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIND CHILL WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL
OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL BE WITH US OVER THE WEEKEND
IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT AS AN ARCTIC AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION BY SUNDAY. H8 TEMPS DROP TO 27 TO 34
DEGREES BELOW ZERO BY SATURDAY EVENING. HAVE GONE WITH A NON-
DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPS ON SATURDAY AS THE LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THE HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE SAME WITH THE TEMPS DROPPING
ALL DAY ON SATURDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP FROM 10 BELOW TO
15 ABOVE ZERO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TO 15 BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE
ZERO BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. WIND CHILLS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE
FROM 10 BELOW TO 35 BELOW ZERO WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE ESPECIALLY BRUTAL AS AIR TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO 5 BELOW TO NEAR 30 BELOW ZERO WITH WIND CHILL
VALUES 25 BELOW TO NEAR 50 BELOW ZERO.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER OUR REGION
ON SUNDAY AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL STILL BE FAIRLY STRONG ON SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING
LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
ZERO TO 15 ABOVE ZERO RANGE WITH THE LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT BETWEEN 10
BELOW AND 5 ABOVE ZERO.

MONDAY WILL FEATURE INCREASING CLOUDS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HIGHS WILL MODERATE
ON MONDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTHWEST TO UPPER 20S
SOUTHEAST WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA
LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE
AS TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM... AT LEAST IN ITS
EARLY STAGES. TWO TO SIX INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT... WHICH IS MORE OR LESS THE START OF THE EVENT. BEYOND THAT
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE AS THERE IS
PLENTY OF MILD AIR TO BE DRAWN IN OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THUS
THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY WILL BE CRUCIAL. RIGHT NOW...THE
TRACK IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM ABOUT CHARLOTTE NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH ALBANY.

BECAUSE THE TRACK IS NOT SEEN AS GOING FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO
GIVE US AN ALL SNOW EVENT...INDICATIONS ARE PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY
OUTSIDE OF THE ADIRONDACKS...BEFORE EVERYTHING TAPERS OFF AS SNOW
TUESDAY NIGHT.  THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT ANY DECENT PERIOD OF RAIN...AS IS EXPECTED
RIGHT NOW...WILL KEEP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT BAY.

BROAD LAKE ENHANCEMENT ON INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING STORM WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS OF LIGHT AMOUNTS GOING FOR
MANY AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR
WEDNESDAY.  BUT THE ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN RAPIDLY ON THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN...BUT WITHOUT THE EXTREME COLD WE/RE
EXPECTING THIS WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S THROUGH THE
UPPER 40S ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 30 DEGREES ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY HIGHS WILL REBOUND SOMEWHAT.  OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 20S IN
THE LOWER MID HUDSON VALLEY.  TUESDAY NIGHT...THEY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 20S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 30S DOWN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.  WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER...AND
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDEST...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO THE UPPER TEENS DOWN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BE S-SW AT AROUND 5-10 KTS. SKIES WILL
FEATURE BKN/OVC PASSING CIRRUS WITH SOME FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE
THIS EVENING AS AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO APPROACH FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR A
ROGUE SNOW SHOWER OR SNOW SQUALL FOR LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AT KALB AND KPSF...BUT AS EARLY AS 03Z AT KGFL. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE DUE TO LIMITED
MOISTURE IN PLACE...SO WILL ONLY ADDRESS WITH VCSH. DID NOT
INCLUDE MENTION OF VCSH AT KPOU AS ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO STAY PRIMARILY NORTH. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD CONTINUE
TO BE VFR TONIGHT WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AROUND 4-8 KFT...AND SW WINDS
AROUND 5 KTS. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SWITCH TO THE WEST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS 12Z SATURDAY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...IN THE
20-25 KNOT RANGE ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO
SIG WX.
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN...SLEET.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...FZRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH BITTER COLD AIR IN PLACE...ICE COVERAGE ON RIVERS AND LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS EVENING...BUT THIS
WILL AMOUNT TO LITTLE IF ANY HYDROLOGIC SIGNIFICANCE.

HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING ONE TO THREE INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT
COULD OCCUR...AND MUCH OF THIS COULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. IF
THIS RAIN WERE TO MATERIALIZE...IT COULD HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS...ESP CONSIDERING THE GROUND WILL BE FULLY
FROZEN BY THAT TIME...ALLOWING MUCH OF THE PRECIP TO BE RUNOFF.
DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE CERTAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-064>066-083-084.
MA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...11/FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 122042
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
342 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY
NEW YORK THROUGH THIS EVENING...IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
ARCTIC FRONT FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS. MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR
MASS OF THE WINTER SEASON...WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS
SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT...AND INTO SUNDAY. A MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MONDAY...WITH A STRONG AND MOISTURE LADEN
STORM SYSTEM BRINGING POTENTIAL MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF SHARP
AND WELL-DEFINED ARCTIC BNDRY MOVING SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OTTAWA VALLEY AND GEORGIAN BAY IN ONTARIO. THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EMANATING OFF LAKE ONTARIO TO REACH THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THESE BANDS LEADING TO MODERATE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (3-7") LOCALLY ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY -
ESPECIALLY SRN/WRN SECTIONS. HAVE CONTINUED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THROUGH 06Z FOR POTENTIAL SLOW TRAVEL CONDITIONS OWING TO
SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VSBY.

THE ARCTIC FRONT ITSELF IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW BAND OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND SQUALLS, PER OTTAWA RADAR. THE MESOSCALE
MODELS...INCLUDING BTV- 4KM AND 12KM WRF...AND BTV SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER...SUGGEST THIS BAND OF ACTIVITY WILL MANAGE TO SHIFT
ESEWD ACROSS NRN NY BETWEEN 3-06Z...AND THROUGH THE BTV AREA
06-08Z. MAY SEE SOME DECREASE EAST OF THE GREENS...BUT MAINTAINED
CHC -SW EASTERN SECTIONS LATE. A QUICK DUSTING TO 2" OF VERY DRY
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN TIME OF DAY/WEEK...LIGHT TRAFFIC
VOLUME AND TEMPS ALREADY WELL BELOW FREEZING SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
IMPACT FROM ANY SNOW SQUALL ACTIVITY.

LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE VERY STRONG BEHIND THE
BNDRY...CURRENTLY SEEING MID-DAY READINGS -20F NORTH OF LAKE
HURON...AND 850MB TEMPS ARE -25C TO -32C. THE LOW-LEVEL CAA
ARRIVES FIRST IN NRN NY...DRIVING DAYBREAK TEMPS DOWN TO -10 TO
-15F FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. WON/T BE QUITE
AS COLD ACROSS VT (+2F AT BTV 12Z AND 5-10F EAST OF THE
GREENS)...BUT NW WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL
RESULT IN VERY LOW WIND CHILLS.

WIND CHILLS BECOME MORE SEVERE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY -
ESPECIALLY ACROSS VT - WITH NEAR STEADY TO FALLING TEMPS NEAR
ZERO. WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO ALL DAY SATURDAY ACROSS NRN NY...WITH
HIGHS -5F TO -10F IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NRN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS. WIND CHILLS 25 TO 35 BELOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN
NY. HAVE MAINTAINED WIND CHILL WARNINGS...WHICH TAKE EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW STRAY FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY...BUT GENERALLY DRY AND BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. MAY SEE A
FEW STRATOCU DUE TO COLD AIR ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...BUT NW RATHER THAN N WINDS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
FETCH/EXTENT OF ANY LAKE-INDUCED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY OVER THE
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO AROUND -30C SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW SITTING OVER THE
REGION, DEPARTING MOISTURE AND DECREASING CLOUDS EXPECT AIR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO 15 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. WIND SPEEDS OF
8-15KTS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES -30 TO -40 DEGREES WITH
COLDER WIND CHILLS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY WITH
GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO
AROUND -20C ON SUNDAY AND A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT AS
RIDGING OCCURS ALOFT AND THE SURFACE RIDGE STARTS TO SLIDE EAST,
PUTTING THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO MODERATING LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW.

CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY, COLD AIR TEMPERATURES AND WARM WATERS OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN MAY RESULT IN TEA KETTLING STEAM CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OFF THE LAKE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AT BTV DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ELSEWHERE COLD BY BENIGN
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE NEGATIVE
SINGLE DIGITS TO POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS WITH DECREASING WINDS.
SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY
NIGHT...REMAINING BELOW ZERO.

MONDAY CONTINUES TO SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE SLIDE
INTO THE ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES NEARING NORMAL IN THE MID TEENS TO
MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK DIGGING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
THAT FORMS LATE MONDAY...TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD WITH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE. THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE LOW TRACK AND
RESULTING PTYPE AND AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. 12Z GFS TRACKS
SURFACE LOW JUST TO OUR EAST...CROSSING NH ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
GFS ENSEMBLES MEAN SIMILAR WITH THE LOW TRACKING OVER VT/EASTERN VT.
12Z ECWMF SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUN, KEEPING A MORE WESTERLY TRACK
WITH THE LOW MOVING IN THE WESTERN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODEL SIMILARITIES...PRECIP MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST MONDAY NIGHT IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. PWAT ANOMALIES
IN EXCESS OF 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL RESULT IN STORM
TOTAL QPF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES. ANY WARM AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM HOLDS OFF TO THE SOUTH THROUGH AROUND 12Z TUESDAY...MEANING
PRECIP WILL START AS SNOW.

MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL AFFECT PTYPE. GFS WITH THE MORE EASTERLY
TRACK KEEPS COLD AIR ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND WARMER AIR IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND AREAS EAST. WHILE 850MB AND 925MB ZERO DEGREE
LINES ARE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO EACH OTHER THROUGHOUT THE EVENT ON
THE GFS...SOME WINTRY MIX/ICING IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AS ARCTIC
TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THIS EVENT WILL LEAD TO FROZEN GROUND. ECWMF
ON THE OTHER HAND MOVES THE WARM AIR WEST OF THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY...BUT PERSISTENT NE FLOW DOWN INTO THE VALLEY WILL KEEP LOW
LEVEL/NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES AOB FREEZING. THIS COULD BE THE SET
UP FOR A SIGNIFICANT ICING EVENT.

SO WITH ALL OF THESE FACTORS YET TO BE RESOLVED BY THE MODELS WHAT
WE CAN EXPECT IS A VERY MOIST STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
CENTRAL LOW PRESSURE FALLING INTO THE 970-980MB RANGE AS IT PASSES
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL START AS SNOW WITH PORTIONS OF THE AREA SEEING WINTRY
MIX DURING THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO
BE AN ISSUE AS SOUTHERLY JET AT 850MB WITH SPEEDS GREATER THAN 50KTS
ENTERS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY STRENGTHENS DURING THE DAY. ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS STORM, STRONG NW WINDS TAKE OVER AT 30-45KTS.

WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL BE DEPARTING NORTH AND EAST WITH SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. ONLY EXCEPTION IS AROUND KSLK...WHERE
SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM LAKE ONTARIO AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT IS
RESULTING IN IFR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY PERSIST AT KSLK UNTIL AFTER PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC BNDRY
TONIGHT (AROUND 06Z AT SLK). ELSEWHERE...WILL ALSO SEE DEVELOPMENT
OF MVFR TO IFR SNOWFALL AT MSS AS ARCTIC BNDRY APPROACHES THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY FROM THE NW...AND AS MOISTURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO
GETS ENTRAINED OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY. THE BNDRY WILL
BRING A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR SNOW SHOWERS OR SNOW
SQUALLS AS IT PASSES PBG (05-06Z), BTV (06-08Z) AND MPV (08-10Z)
LATE TONIGHT. LOOKING FOR A QUICK DUSTING TO 2" OF DRY FLUFFY SNOW
AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS GENERALLY S-SSW 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO
22KTS THRU THIS EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY VEERING INTO THE NW WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME LINGERING MVFR IS LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES. CONTINUED MODERATELY STRONG NW WINDS
10-20 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COASTAL
STORM WILL SPREAD HEAVY MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION NWD INTO THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD IFR AVIATION WX CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ029-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 121825
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
125 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ARCTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO SOUTHERN
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS OR
SQUALLS ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST
AIR MASS OF THE WINTER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. A MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MONDAY...WITH A STRONG STORM SYSTEM
BRINGING MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 125 PM EST FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. TRANQUIL AND COLD THIS MORNING WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN VT. BEGINNING TO SEE SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW DEVELOP IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (SOUTH WINDS 12KTS AT
BTV AT 14Z) AND THAT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
CURRENTLY...BUT INCREASING SSW-SW FLOW FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NRN NY AND VT
INTO THIS AFTN. ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF ONTARIO PER
KTYX-88D WILL ELONGATE AS BACKGROUND FLOW STRENGTHENS...AND BACK
INTO ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY LATER THIS MORNING. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS ON TRACK FOR SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY FOR LOW VSBY AND
SNOW COVERED ROADS RESULTING IN AREAS OF SLOW TRAVEL FOR THE AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SFC ARCTIC BNDRY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...THEN BE OVER OUR
REGION TONIGHT. SHARP ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS OUR
AREA AND USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. BACKING
FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BRING ABOUT FAVORABLE LAKE
EFFECT FLOW FROM LAKE ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
TODAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY
AFTER 15Z...AND PERSIST THRU 00Z. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
MAINLY BE CONFINED TO ST LAWRENCE COUNTY. THE REST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. AREAS AFFECTED BY LAKE EFFECT SHOULD
SEE ABOUT 3 TO 7 INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW...SOME ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S.

TONIGHT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA...FROM
00 TO 12Z. A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL LEAD THE FRONT AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOWFALL TOTALS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SHUT DOWN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. VERY
HIGH SNOW RATIOS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR MASS
MOVING INTO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS VERMONT...WITH NEGATIVE TEENS IN NORTHERN
NEW YORK WHERE THE COLD AIR REACHES SOONER. BRISK WINDS AND THESE
COLD TEMPERATURES BRING ABOUT WIND CHILL CONCERNS. HAVE UPDATED
THE WATCH TO A WARNING. WIND CHILL VALUES DIP INTO THE NEGATIVE
20S ACROSS PARTS OF OUR AREA TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTHERN NEW YORK.
THIS IS JUST THE BEGINNING OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON MOVING
INTO OUR AREA BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 449 AM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE BIG WEATHER STORY FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER DUE BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS. COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF STRONG COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FAIRLY STEADY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH READINGS
AROUND 10 BELOW DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ACROSS THE
REST OF VERMONT EARLY SATURDAY...THEN SLIDE BACK BELOW ZERO
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE WELL BELOW ZERO...RANGING MOSTLY FROM 10
BELOW TO 25 BELOW ZERO AS CORE OF COLDEST AIR ALOFT (850 MB TEMPS
AROUND -30C) MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL THEN
STRUGGLE TO TOP ZERO IN MOST AREAS. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
SATURDAY BETWEEN DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM GREAT LAKES...WITH WIND GUSTS 15 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED.
WIND GUSTS OF 10 TO 20 MPH STILL POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS THEN EASE AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND CHILL TEMPS WILL BE IN WARNING CRITERIA FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...RANGING FROM 25 TO AS LOW AS 40 BELOW ZERO.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL RESULT IN BEST CHANCES OVER NORTHERN VERMONT.
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT WILL COME TO AN END
SATURDAY EVENING AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME
SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS. EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS
LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE MID 30S...SO CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME STEAM CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN COLDER AIR AND PERHAPS A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 449 AM EST FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SUBZERO READINGS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
HIGH WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 20S WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY HOWEVER AS
WEAK RIDGE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THOUGH AS THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE FROM DIGGING 500MB
TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH TAKES ON
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT LIFTS RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ON TUESDAY. MODELS
STILL DIFFER ON TRACK OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE THAT DEVELOPS...BUT
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE TRACK WILL BE
INLAND. THIS WOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH WARMING TO ALLOW FOR A
CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW TO RAIN OR MIXED PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WELL INTO THE 30S. AS THE LOW LIFTS
NORTH AND EAST TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN OR MIXED PRECIP THEN CHANGES
BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS. MULTIPLE VORTICES IN 500MB TROUGH MAY KEEP
CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA. MAINLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. ONLY EXCEPTION IS AROUND KSLK...WHERE
SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM LAKE ONTARIO AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT IS
RESULTING IN IFR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY PERSIST AT KSLK UNTIL AFTER PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC BNDRY
TONIGHT (AROUND 06Z AT SLK). ELSEWHERE...WILL ALSO SEE DEVELOPMENT
OF MVFR TO IFR SNOWFALL AT MSS AS ARCTIC BNDRY APPROACHES THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY FROM THE NW...AND AS MOISTURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO
GETS ENTRAINED OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY. THE BNDRY WILL
BRING A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR SNOW SHOWERS OR SNOW
SQUALLS AS IT PASSES PBG (05-06Z), BTV (06-08Z) AND MPV (08-10Z)
LATE TONIGHT. LOOKING FOR A QUICK DUSTING TO 2" OF DRY FLUFFY SNOW
AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS GENERALLY S-SSW 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO
22KTS THRU THIS EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY VEERING INTO THE NW WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME LINGERING MVFR IS LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES. CONTINUED MODERATELY STRONG NW WINDS
10-20 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COASTAL
STORM WILL SPREAD HEAVY MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION NWD INTO THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD IFR AVIATION WX CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ029-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...BANACOS/NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 121825
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
125 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ARCTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO SOUTHERN
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS OR
SQUALLS ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST
AIR MASS OF THE WINTER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. A MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MONDAY...WITH A STRONG STORM SYSTEM
BRINGING MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 125 PM EST FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. TRANQUIL AND COLD THIS MORNING WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN VT. BEGINNING TO SEE SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW DEVELOP IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (SOUTH WINDS 12KTS AT
BTV AT 14Z) AND THAT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
CURRENTLY...BUT INCREASING SSW-SW FLOW FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NRN NY AND VT
INTO THIS AFTN. ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF ONTARIO PER
KTYX-88D WILL ELONGATE AS BACKGROUND FLOW STRENGTHENS...AND BACK
INTO ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY LATER THIS MORNING. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS ON TRACK FOR SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY FOR LOW VSBY AND
SNOW COVERED ROADS RESULTING IN AREAS OF SLOW TRAVEL FOR THE AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SFC ARCTIC BNDRY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...THEN BE OVER OUR
REGION TONIGHT. SHARP ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS OUR
AREA AND USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. BACKING
FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BRING ABOUT FAVORABLE LAKE
EFFECT FLOW FROM LAKE ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
TODAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY
AFTER 15Z...AND PERSIST THRU 00Z. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
MAINLY BE CONFINED TO ST LAWRENCE COUNTY. THE REST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. AREAS AFFECTED BY LAKE EFFECT SHOULD
SEE ABOUT 3 TO 7 INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW...SOME ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S.

TONIGHT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA...FROM
00 TO 12Z. A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL LEAD THE FRONT AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOWFALL TOTALS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SHUT DOWN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. VERY
HIGH SNOW RATIOS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR MASS
MOVING INTO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS VERMONT...WITH NEGATIVE TEENS IN NORTHERN
NEW YORK WHERE THE COLD AIR REACHES SOONER. BRISK WINDS AND THESE
COLD TEMPERATURES BRING ABOUT WIND CHILL CONCERNS. HAVE UPDATED
THE WATCH TO A WARNING. WIND CHILL VALUES DIP INTO THE NEGATIVE
20S ACROSS PARTS OF OUR AREA TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTHERN NEW YORK.
THIS IS JUST THE BEGINNING OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON MOVING
INTO OUR AREA BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 449 AM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE BIG WEATHER STORY FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER DUE BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS. COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF STRONG COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FAIRLY STEADY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH READINGS
AROUND 10 BELOW DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ACROSS THE
REST OF VERMONT EARLY SATURDAY...THEN SLIDE BACK BELOW ZERO
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE WELL BELOW ZERO...RANGING MOSTLY FROM 10
BELOW TO 25 BELOW ZERO AS CORE OF COLDEST AIR ALOFT (850 MB TEMPS
AROUND -30C) MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL THEN
STRUGGLE TO TOP ZERO IN MOST AREAS. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
SATURDAY BETWEEN DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM GREAT LAKES...WITH WIND GUSTS 15 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED.
WIND GUSTS OF 10 TO 20 MPH STILL POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS THEN EASE AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND CHILL TEMPS WILL BE IN WARNING CRITERIA FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...RANGING FROM 25 TO AS LOW AS 40 BELOW ZERO.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL RESULT IN BEST CHANCES OVER NORTHERN VERMONT.
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT WILL COME TO AN END
SATURDAY EVENING AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME
SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS. EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS
LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE MID 30S...SO CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME STEAM CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN COLDER AIR AND PERHAPS A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 449 AM EST FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SUBZERO READINGS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
HIGH WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 20S WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY HOWEVER AS
WEAK RIDGE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THOUGH AS THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE FROM DIGGING 500MB
TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH TAKES ON
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT LIFTS RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ON TUESDAY. MODELS
STILL DIFFER ON TRACK OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE THAT DEVELOPS...BUT
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE TRACK WILL BE
INLAND. THIS WOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH WARMING TO ALLOW FOR A
CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW TO RAIN OR MIXED PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WELL INTO THE 30S. AS THE LOW LIFTS
NORTH AND EAST TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN OR MIXED PRECIP THEN CHANGES
BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS. MULTIPLE VORTICES IN 500MB TROUGH MAY KEEP
CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA. MAINLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. ONLY EXCEPTION IS AROUND KSLK...WHERE
SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM LAKE ONTARIO AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT IS
RESULTING IN IFR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY PERSIST AT KSLK UNTIL AFTER PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC BNDRY
TONIGHT (AROUND 06Z AT SLK). ELSEWHERE...WILL ALSO SEE DEVELOPMENT
OF MVFR TO IFR SNOWFALL AT MSS AS ARCTIC BNDRY APPROACHES THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY FROM THE NW...AND AS MOISTURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO
GETS ENTRAINED OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY. THE BNDRY WILL
BRING A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR SNOW SHOWERS OR SNOW
SQUALLS AS IT PASSES PBG (05-06Z), BTV (06-08Z) AND MPV (08-10Z)
LATE TONIGHT. LOOKING FOR A QUICK DUSTING TO 2" OF DRY FLUFFY SNOW
AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS GENERALLY S-SSW 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO
22KTS THRU THIS EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY VEERING INTO THE NW WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME LINGERING MVFR IS LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES. CONTINUED MODERATELY STRONG NW WINDS
10-20 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COASTAL
STORM WILL SPREAD HEAVY MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION NWD INTO THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD IFR AVIATION WX CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ029-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...BANACOS/NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 121825
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
125 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ARCTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO SOUTHERN
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS OR
SQUALLS ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST
AIR MASS OF THE WINTER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. A MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MONDAY...WITH A STRONG STORM SYSTEM
BRINGING MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 125 PM EST FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. TRANQUIL AND COLD THIS MORNING WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN VT. BEGINNING TO SEE SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW DEVELOP IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (SOUTH WINDS 12KTS AT
BTV AT 14Z) AND THAT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
CURRENTLY...BUT INCREASING SSW-SW FLOW FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NRN NY AND VT
INTO THIS AFTN. ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF ONTARIO PER
KTYX-88D WILL ELONGATE AS BACKGROUND FLOW STRENGTHENS...AND BACK
INTO ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY LATER THIS MORNING. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS ON TRACK FOR SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY FOR LOW VSBY AND
SNOW COVERED ROADS RESULTING IN AREAS OF SLOW TRAVEL FOR THE AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SFC ARCTIC BNDRY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...THEN BE OVER OUR
REGION TONIGHT. SHARP ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS OUR
AREA AND USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. BACKING
FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BRING ABOUT FAVORABLE LAKE
EFFECT FLOW FROM LAKE ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
TODAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY
AFTER 15Z...AND PERSIST THRU 00Z. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
MAINLY BE CONFINED TO ST LAWRENCE COUNTY. THE REST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. AREAS AFFECTED BY LAKE EFFECT SHOULD
SEE ABOUT 3 TO 7 INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW...SOME ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S.

TONIGHT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA...FROM
00 TO 12Z. A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL LEAD THE FRONT AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOWFALL TOTALS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SHUT DOWN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. VERY
HIGH SNOW RATIOS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR MASS
MOVING INTO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS VERMONT...WITH NEGATIVE TEENS IN NORTHERN
NEW YORK WHERE THE COLD AIR REACHES SOONER. BRISK WINDS AND THESE
COLD TEMPERATURES BRING ABOUT WIND CHILL CONCERNS. HAVE UPDATED
THE WATCH TO A WARNING. WIND CHILL VALUES DIP INTO THE NEGATIVE
20S ACROSS PARTS OF OUR AREA TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTHERN NEW YORK.
THIS IS JUST THE BEGINNING OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON MOVING
INTO OUR AREA BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 449 AM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE BIG WEATHER STORY FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER DUE BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS. COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF STRONG COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FAIRLY STEADY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH READINGS
AROUND 10 BELOW DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ACROSS THE
REST OF VERMONT EARLY SATURDAY...THEN SLIDE BACK BELOW ZERO
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE WELL BELOW ZERO...RANGING MOSTLY FROM 10
BELOW TO 25 BELOW ZERO AS CORE OF COLDEST AIR ALOFT (850 MB TEMPS
AROUND -30C) MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL THEN
STRUGGLE TO TOP ZERO IN MOST AREAS. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
SATURDAY BETWEEN DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM GREAT LAKES...WITH WIND GUSTS 15 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED.
WIND GUSTS OF 10 TO 20 MPH STILL POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS THEN EASE AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND CHILL TEMPS WILL BE IN WARNING CRITERIA FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...RANGING FROM 25 TO AS LOW AS 40 BELOW ZERO.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL RESULT IN BEST CHANCES OVER NORTHERN VERMONT.
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT WILL COME TO AN END
SATURDAY EVENING AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME
SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS. EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS
LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE MID 30S...SO CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME STEAM CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN COLDER AIR AND PERHAPS A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 449 AM EST FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SUBZERO READINGS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
HIGH WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 20S WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY HOWEVER AS
WEAK RIDGE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THOUGH AS THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE FROM DIGGING 500MB
TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH TAKES ON
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT LIFTS RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ON TUESDAY. MODELS
STILL DIFFER ON TRACK OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE THAT DEVELOPS...BUT
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE TRACK WILL BE
INLAND. THIS WOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH WARMING TO ALLOW FOR A
CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW TO RAIN OR MIXED PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WELL INTO THE 30S. AS THE LOW LIFTS
NORTH AND EAST TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN OR MIXED PRECIP THEN CHANGES
BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS. MULTIPLE VORTICES IN 500MB TROUGH MAY KEEP
CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA. MAINLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. ONLY EXCEPTION IS AROUND KSLK...WHERE
SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM LAKE ONTARIO AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT IS
RESULTING IN IFR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY PERSIST AT KSLK UNTIL AFTER PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC BNDRY
TONIGHT (AROUND 06Z AT SLK). ELSEWHERE...WILL ALSO SEE DEVELOPMENT
OF MVFR TO IFR SNOWFALL AT MSS AS ARCTIC BNDRY APPROACHES THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY FROM THE NW...AND AS MOISTURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO
GETS ENTRAINED OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY. THE BNDRY WILL
BRING A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR SNOW SHOWERS OR SNOW
SQUALLS AS IT PASSES PBG (05-06Z), BTV (06-08Z) AND MPV (08-10Z)
LATE TONIGHT. LOOKING FOR A QUICK DUSTING TO 2" OF DRY FLUFFY SNOW
AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS GENERALLY S-SSW 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO
22KTS THRU THIS EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY VEERING INTO THE NW WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME LINGERING MVFR IS LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES. CONTINUED MODERATELY STRONG NW WINDS
10-20 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COASTAL
STORM WILL SPREAD HEAVY MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION NWD INTO THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD IFR AVIATION WX CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ029-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...BANACOS/NEILES




000
FXUS61 KALY 121732
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1232 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS.
BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT PASSAGE...THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
SEASON WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH BITTERLY
COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER NEW
ENGLAND...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS OUR AREA
AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S .

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF
LAKE ONTARIO WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
CHANCES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BY THE
EVENING HOURS MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS. THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER DOES SHOW SIGNS OF
SOME POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SNOW SQUALLS WITH THESE SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
THE GREATEST THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

IN TERMS OF POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...MOST
AREAS LOOK TO SEE LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION...EXCEPT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE UP TO AN
INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
ARCTIC FRONT INTERACT WITH SOME LAKE-ENHANCED MOISTURE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID
20S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WIND CHILL WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL
AREAS...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY..A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT ALONG
AN ARCTIC FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
WORK ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS ARE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE 500 HPA
VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL ELEVATE THE CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW
SQUALLS NEAR THE FRONT CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WITH A DOMINANT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS IN ITS
WAKE...VERY COLD AND LIKELY DANGEROUS WINDCHILL TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW AS WE GO THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LATEST 12/00Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL DATA SHOWS A PREDOMINANT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTING VERY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME OF
THE LATEST DATA SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURE DATA FOR H925 AND H850 BY 06Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE
REGION WILL RANGE FROM -24C TO -29C AND -30C TO -35C RESPECTIVELY.
WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS HIGHER THAN 20 KTS AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
SATURDAY...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION. HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE REACHED IN THE
EARLY MORNING BEFORE FALLING STEADILY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL. AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE COLDEST VALUES WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON. LOW TEMP
VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN -5 AND -10 ACROSS THE LOWER MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY TO
-10 TO -20 ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM -25 TO -35.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SLIGHTLY WITH
A WIND SHIFT TO MORE OF A DUE WESTERLY DIRECTION. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL
STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID FEBRUARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...HOWEVER...THE EXACT TYPES OF PRECIPITATION AND
AMOUNTS ARE STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DEPARTING
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AFTER A VERY COLD START ON MONDAY
MORNING...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE 20S.  ALTHOUGH SKIES
WILL START OFF MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLEAR...THEY WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY BY LATE IN THE DAY.

BY MONDAY EVENING...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE HEADING
NORTHWARD FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A SURGE OF GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE RUNNING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WILL BE DIVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND WILL BE
HELPING TO INFLUENCE THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS DEEPENING SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM.

MODELS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW WILL BREAK OUT
OUR REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON MONDAY NIGHT THANKS TO THE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL
LIKELY ACCUMULATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING ALOFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. PRECIP
WILL START TO MIX WITH SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
BY AROUND 06Z...AND START MIXING IN THE CAPITAL REGION TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.

ULTIMATELY...THE DURATION/LENGTH OF THE CHANGEOVER WILL DEPEND ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM....WHICH IS STILL YET TO BE DETERMINED.
A PERIOD OF ICING DUE TO FZRA COULD BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS IF
COLD AIR IS ABLE TO HANG IN.  THE MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST A TRACK
VERY CLOSE TO THE ALY CWA...AND A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE WEST TO
EAST COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE ON P-TYPE...QPF AMOUNTS...AND
TEMPS.  BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...PRECIP WILL START TO CHANGE
FROM MIXED TO PLAIN RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA SEEING A PLAIN RAIN BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AMOUNT OF QPF ON
TUESDAY...AND THE PRECIP COULD BE LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY AT
TIMES. EAST OF THE STORM TRACK...TEMPS COULD RISE WELL INTO THE
40S...WHILE WEST OF THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. WITH THE STORM EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 990 HPA AND FEATURE A
STRONG LLJ...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME GUSTY WINDS...ESP
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ALL THESE HAZARDS IN OUR HWO STATEMENT.

AS THE STORM LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN
CANADA...IT WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY STRENGTH. WITH COLD AIR RUSHING
BEHIND THE STORM...ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS WITH THE BACKSIDE
PRECIP...BUT AGAIN...THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
STORM.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK WITH SOME PASSING NORTHERN
STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEMS AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BE S-SW AT AROUND 5-10 KTS. SKIES WILL
FEATURE BKN/OVC PASSING CIRRUS WITH SOME FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE
THIS EVENING AS AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO APPROACH FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR A
ROGUE SNOW SHOWER OR SNOW SQUALL FOR LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AT KALB AND KPSF...BUT AS EARLY AS 03Z AT KGFL. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE DUE TO LIMITED
MOISTURE IN PLACE...SO WILL ONLY ADDRESS WITH VCSH. DID NOT
INCLUDE MENTION OF VCSH AT KPOU AS ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO STAY PRIMARILY NORTH. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD CONTINUE
TO BE VFR TONIGHT WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AROUND 4-8 KFT...AND SW WINDS
AROUND 5 KTS. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SWITCH TO THE WEST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS 12Z SATURDAY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...IN THE
20-25 KNOT RANGE ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO
SIG WX.
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN...SLEET.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...FZRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH BITTER COLD AIR IN PLACE...ICE COVERAGE ON RIVERS AND LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS EVENING...BUT THIS
WILL AMOUNT TO LITTLE OF HYDROLOGIC SIGNIFICANCE.

HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF PRECIPITATION THAT
MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT COULD OCCUR...AND MUCH OF
THIS COULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. IF THIS RAIN WERE TO
MATERIALIZE...IT COULD HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...ESP CONSIDERING THE GROUND WILL BE FULLY FROZEN BY THAT
TIME...ALLOWING MUCH OF THE PRECIP TO BE RUNOFF. DETAILS WILL
BECOME MORE CERTAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-064>066-083-084.
MA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL/11
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 121732
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1232 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS.
BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT PASSAGE...THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
SEASON WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH BITTERLY
COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER NEW
ENGLAND...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS OUR AREA
AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S .

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF
LAKE ONTARIO WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
CHANCES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BY THE
EVENING HOURS MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS. THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER DOES SHOW SIGNS OF
SOME POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SNOW SQUALLS WITH THESE SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
THE GREATEST THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

IN TERMS OF POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...MOST
AREAS LOOK TO SEE LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION...EXCEPT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE UP TO AN
INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
ARCTIC FRONT INTERACT WITH SOME LAKE-ENHANCED MOISTURE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID
20S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WIND CHILL WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL
AREAS...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY..A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT ALONG
AN ARCTIC FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
WORK ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS ARE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE 500 HPA
VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL ELEVATE THE CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW
SQUALLS NEAR THE FRONT CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WITH A DOMINANT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS IN ITS
WAKE...VERY COLD AND LIKELY DANGEROUS WINDCHILL TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW AS WE GO THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LATEST 12/00Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL DATA SHOWS A PREDOMINANT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTING VERY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME OF
THE LATEST DATA SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURE DATA FOR H925 AND H850 BY 06Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE
REGION WILL RANGE FROM -24C TO -29C AND -30C TO -35C RESPECTIVELY.
WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS HIGHER THAN 20 KTS AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
SATURDAY...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION. HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE REACHED IN THE
EARLY MORNING BEFORE FALLING STEADILY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL. AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE COLDEST VALUES WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON. LOW TEMP
VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN -5 AND -10 ACROSS THE LOWER MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY TO
-10 TO -20 ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM -25 TO -35.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SLIGHTLY WITH
A WIND SHIFT TO MORE OF A DUE WESTERLY DIRECTION. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL
STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID FEBRUARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...HOWEVER...THE EXACT TYPES OF PRECIPITATION AND
AMOUNTS ARE STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DEPARTING
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AFTER A VERY COLD START ON MONDAY
MORNING...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE 20S.  ALTHOUGH SKIES
WILL START OFF MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLEAR...THEY WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY BY LATE IN THE DAY.

BY MONDAY EVENING...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE HEADING
NORTHWARD FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A SURGE OF GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE RUNNING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WILL BE DIVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND WILL BE
HELPING TO INFLUENCE THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS DEEPENING SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM.

MODELS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW WILL BREAK OUT
OUR REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON MONDAY NIGHT THANKS TO THE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL
LIKELY ACCUMULATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING ALOFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. PRECIP
WILL START TO MIX WITH SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
BY AROUND 06Z...AND START MIXING IN THE CAPITAL REGION TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.

ULTIMATELY...THE DURATION/LENGTH OF THE CHANGEOVER WILL DEPEND ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM....WHICH IS STILL YET TO BE DETERMINED.
A PERIOD OF ICING DUE TO FZRA COULD BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS IF
COLD AIR IS ABLE TO HANG IN.  THE MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST A TRACK
VERY CLOSE TO THE ALY CWA...AND A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE WEST TO
EAST COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE ON P-TYPE...QPF AMOUNTS...AND
TEMPS.  BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...PRECIP WILL START TO CHANGE
FROM MIXED TO PLAIN RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA SEEING A PLAIN RAIN BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AMOUNT OF QPF ON
TUESDAY...AND THE PRECIP COULD BE LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY AT
TIMES. EAST OF THE STORM TRACK...TEMPS COULD RISE WELL INTO THE
40S...WHILE WEST OF THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. WITH THE STORM EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 990 HPA AND FEATURE A
STRONG LLJ...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME GUSTY WINDS...ESP
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ALL THESE HAZARDS IN OUR HWO STATEMENT.

AS THE STORM LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN
CANADA...IT WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY STRENGTH. WITH COLD AIR RUSHING
BEHIND THE STORM...ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS WITH THE BACKSIDE
PRECIP...BUT AGAIN...THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
STORM.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK WITH SOME PASSING NORTHERN
STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEMS AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BE S-SW AT AROUND 5-10 KTS. SKIES WILL
FEATURE BKN/OVC PASSING CIRRUS WITH SOME FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE
THIS EVENING AS AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO APPROACH FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR A
ROGUE SNOW SHOWER OR SNOW SQUALL FOR LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AT KALB AND KPSF...BUT AS EARLY AS 03Z AT KGFL. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE DUE TO LIMITED
MOISTURE IN PLACE...SO WILL ONLY ADDRESS WITH VCSH. DID NOT
INCLUDE MENTION OF VCSH AT KPOU AS ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO STAY PRIMARILY NORTH. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD CONTINUE
TO BE VFR TONIGHT WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AROUND 4-8 KFT...AND SW WINDS
AROUND 5 KTS. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SWITCH TO THE WEST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS 12Z SATURDAY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...IN THE
20-25 KNOT RANGE ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO
SIG WX.
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN...SLEET.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...FZRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH BITTER COLD AIR IN PLACE...ICE COVERAGE ON RIVERS AND LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS EVENING...BUT THIS
WILL AMOUNT TO LITTLE OF HYDROLOGIC SIGNIFICANCE.

HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF PRECIPITATION THAT
MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT COULD OCCUR...AND MUCH OF
THIS COULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. IF THIS RAIN WERE TO
MATERIALIZE...IT COULD HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...ESP CONSIDERING THE GROUND WILL BE FULLY FROZEN BY THAT
TIME...ALLOWING MUCH OF THE PRECIP TO BE RUNOFF. DETAILS WILL
BECOME MORE CERTAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-064>066-083-084.
MA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL/11
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 121732
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1232 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS.
BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT PASSAGE...THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
SEASON WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH BITTERLY
COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER NEW
ENGLAND...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS OUR AREA
AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S .

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF
LAKE ONTARIO WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
CHANCES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BY THE
EVENING HOURS MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS. THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER DOES SHOW SIGNS OF
SOME POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SNOW SQUALLS WITH THESE SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
THE GREATEST THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

IN TERMS OF POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...MOST
AREAS LOOK TO SEE LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION...EXCEPT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE UP TO AN
INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
ARCTIC FRONT INTERACT WITH SOME LAKE-ENHANCED MOISTURE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID
20S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WIND CHILL WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL
AREAS...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY..A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT ALONG
AN ARCTIC FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
WORK ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS ARE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE 500 HPA
VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL ELEVATE THE CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW
SQUALLS NEAR THE FRONT CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WITH A DOMINANT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS IN ITS
WAKE...VERY COLD AND LIKELY DANGEROUS WINDCHILL TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW AS WE GO THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LATEST 12/00Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL DATA SHOWS A PREDOMINANT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTING VERY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME OF
THE LATEST DATA SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURE DATA FOR H925 AND H850 BY 06Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE
REGION WILL RANGE FROM -24C TO -29C AND -30C TO -35C RESPECTIVELY.
WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS HIGHER THAN 20 KTS AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
SATURDAY...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION. HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE REACHED IN THE
EARLY MORNING BEFORE FALLING STEADILY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL. AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE COLDEST VALUES WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON. LOW TEMP
VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN -5 AND -10 ACROSS THE LOWER MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY TO
-10 TO -20 ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM -25 TO -35.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SLIGHTLY WITH
A WIND SHIFT TO MORE OF A DUE WESTERLY DIRECTION. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL
STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID FEBRUARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...HOWEVER...THE EXACT TYPES OF PRECIPITATION AND
AMOUNTS ARE STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DEPARTING
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AFTER A VERY COLD START ON MONDAY
MORNING...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE 20S.  ALTHOUGH SKIES
WILL START OFF MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLEAR...THEY WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY BY LATE IN THE DAY.

BY MONDAY EVENING...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE HEADING
NORTHWARD FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A SURGE OF GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE RUNNING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WILL BE DIVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND WILL BE
HELPING TO INFLUENCE THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS DEEPENING SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM.

MODELS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW WILL BREAK OUT
OUR REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON MONDAY NIGHT THANKS TO THE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL
LIKELY ACCUMULATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING ALOFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. PRECIP
WILL START TO MIX WITH SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
BY AROUND 06Z...AND START MIXING IN THE CAPITAL REGION TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.

ULTIMATELY...THE DURATION/LENGTH OF THE CHANGEOVER WILL DEPEND ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM....WHICH IS STILL YET TO BE DETERMINED.
A PERIOD OF ICING DUE TO FZRA COULD BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS IF
COLD AIR IS ABLE TO HANG IN.  THE MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST A TRACK
VERY CLOSE TO THE ALY CWA...AND A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE WEST TO
EAST COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE ON P-TYPE...QPF AMOUNTS...AND
TEMPS.  BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...PRECIP WILL START TO CHANGE
FROM MIXED TO PLAIN RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA SEEING A PLAIN RAIN BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AMOUNT OF QPF ON
TUESDAY...AND THE PRECIP COULD BE LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY AT
TIMES. EAST OF THE STORM TRACK...TEMPS COULD RISE WELL INTO THE
40S...WHILE WEST OF THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. WITH THE STORM EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 990 HPA AND FEATURE A
STRONG LLJ...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME GUSTY WINDS...ESP
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ALL THESE HAZARDS IN OUR HWO STATEMENT.

AS THE STORM LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN
CANADA...IT WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY STRENGTH. WITH COLD AIR RUSHING
BEHIND THE STORM...ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS WITH THE BACKSIDE
PRECIP...BUT AGAIN...THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
STORM.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK WITH SOME PASSING NORTHERN
STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEMS AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BE S-SW AT AROUND 5-10 KTS. SKIES WILL
FEATURE BKN/OVC PASSING CIRRUS WITH SOME FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE
THIS EVENING AS AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO APPROACH FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR A
ROGUE SNOW SHOWER OR SNOW SQUALL FOR LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AT KALB AND KPSF...BUT AS EARLY AS 03Z AT KGFL. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE DUE TO LIMITED
MOISTURE IN PLACE...SO WILL ONLY ADDRESS WITH VCSH. DID NOT
INCLUDE MENTION OF VCSH AT KPOU AS ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO STAY PRIMARILY NORTH. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD CONTINUE
TO BE VFR TONIGHT WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AROUND 4-8 KFT...AND SW WINDS
AROUND 5 KTS. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SWITCH TO THE WEST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS 12Z SATURDAY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...IN THE
20-25 KNOT RANGE ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO
SIG WX.
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN...SLEET.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...FZRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH BITTER COLD AIR IN PLACE...ICE COVERAGE ON RIVERS AND LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS EVENING...BUT THIS
WILL AMOUNT TO LITTLE OF HYDROLOGIC SIGNIFICANCE.

HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF PRECIPITATION THAT
MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT COULD OCCUR...AND MUCH OF
THIS COULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. IF THIS RAIN WERE TO
MATERIALIZE...IT COULD HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...ESP CONSIDERING THE GROUND WILL BE FULLY FROZEN BY THAT
TIME...ALLOWING MUCH OF THE PRECIP TO BE RUNOFF. DETAILS WILL
BECOME MORE CERTAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-064>066-083-084.
MA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL/11
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 121726
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1226 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS.
BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT PASSAGE...THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
SEASON WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH BITTERLY
COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1015 AM EST...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE
NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES EARLIER THIS MORNING PLUMMETED ACROSS
THE REGION WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS...WITH BELOW
ZERO READINGS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. THESE TEMPERATURES
ARE JUST A PREVIEW OF EVEN MORE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. TO SEE HOW COLD LOW
TEMPERATURES WERE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING PLEASE REFER TO
OUR LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF
LAKE ONTARIO WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE TUGHILL PLATEAU
ALTHOUGH HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY AS SOME SCATTERED MAINLY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE BAND MAY EXTEND FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD INTO
THIS AREA...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
CHANCES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BY THE
EVENING HOURS MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS. THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER DOES SHOW SIGNS OF
SOME POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SNOW SQUALLS WITH THESE SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
THE GREATEST THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

IN TERMS OF POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...MOST
AREAS LOOK TO SEE LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION...EXCEPT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE UP TO AN
INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
ARCTIC FRONT INTERACT WITH SOME LAKE-ENHANCED MOISTURE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID
20S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WIND CHILL WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL
AREAS...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY..A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT ALONG
AN ARCTIC FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
WORK ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS ARE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE 500 HPA
VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL ELEVATE THE CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW
SQUALLS NEAR THE FRONT CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WITH A DOMINANT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS IN ITS
WAKE...VERY COLD AND LIKELY DANGEROUS WINDCHILL TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW AS WE GO THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LATEST 12/00Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL DATA SHOWS A PREDOMINANT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTING VERY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME OF
THE LATEST DATA SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURE DATA FOR H925 AND H850 BY 06Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE
REGION WILL RANGE FROM -24C TO -29C AND -30C TO -35C RESPECTIVELY.
WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS HIGHER THAN 20 KTS AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
SATURDAY...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION. HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE REACHED IN THE
EARLY MORNING BEFORE FALLING STEADILY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL. AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE COLDEST VALUES WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON. LOW TEMP
VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN -5 AND -10 ACROSS THE LOWER MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY TO
-10 TO -20 ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM -25 TO -35.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SLIGHTLY WITH
A WIND SHIFT TO MORE OF A DUE WESTERLY DIRECTION. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL
STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID FEBRUARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...HOWEVER...THE EXACT TYPES OF PRECIPITATION AND
AMOUNTS ARE STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DEPARTING
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AFTER A VERY COLD START ON MONDAY
MORNING...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE 20S.  ALTHOUGH SKIES
WILL START OFF MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLEAR...THEY WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY BY LATE IN THE DAY.

BY MONDAY EVENING...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE HEADING
NORTHWARD FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A SURGE OF GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE RUNNING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WILL BE DIVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND WILL BE
HELPING TO INFLUENCE THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS DEEPENING SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM.

MODELS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW WILL BREAK OUT
OUR REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON MONDAY NIGHT THANKS TO THE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL
LIKELY ACCUMULATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING ALOFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. PRECIP
WILL START TO MIX WITH SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
BY AROUND 06Z...AND START MIXING IN THE CAPITAL REGION TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.

ULTIMATELY...THE DURATION/LENGTH OF THE CHANGEOVER WILL DEPEND ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM....WHICH IS STILL YET TO BE DETERMINED.
A PERIOD OF ICING DUE TO FZRA COULD BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS IF
COLD AIR IS ABLE TO HANG IN.  THE MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST A TRACK
VERY CLOSE TO THE ALY CWA...AND A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE WEST TO
EAST COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE ON P-TYPE...QPF AMOUNTS...AND
TEMPS.  BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...PRECIP WILL START TO CHANGE
FROM MIXED TO PLAIN RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA SEEING A PLAIN RAIN BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AMOUNT OF QPF ON
TUESDAY...AND THE PRECIP COULD BE LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY AT
TIMES. EAST OF THE STORM TRACK...TEMPS COULD RISE WELL INTO THE
40S...WHILE WEST OF THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. WITH THE STORM EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 990 HPA AND FEATURE A
STRONG LLJ...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME GUSTY WINDS...ESP
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ALL THESE HAZARDS IN OUR HWO STATEMENT.

AS THE STORM LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN
CANADA...IT WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY STRENGTH. WITH COLD AIR RUSHING
BEHIND THE STORM...ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS WITH THE BACKSIDE
PRECIP...BUT AGAIN...THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
STORM.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK WITH SOME PASSING NORTHERN
STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEMS AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BE S-SW AT AROUND 5-10 KTS. SKIES WILL
FEATURE BKN/OVC PASSING CIRRUS WITH SOME FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE
THIS EVENING AS AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO APPROACH FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR A
ROGUE SNOW SHOWER OR SNOW SQUALL FOR LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AT KALB AND KPSF...BUT AS EARLY AS 03Z AT KGFL. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE DUE TO LIMITED
MOISTURE IN PLACE...SO WILL ONLY ADDRESS WITH VCSH. DID NOT
INCLUDE MENTION OF VCSH AT KPOU AS ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO STAY PRIMARILY NORTH. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD CONTINUE
TO BE VFR TONIGHT WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AROUND 4-8 KFT...AND SW WINDS
AROUND 5 KTS. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SWITCH TO THE WEST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS 12Z SATURDAY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...IN THE
20-25 KNOT RANGE ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO
SIG WX.
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN...SLEET.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...FZRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH BITTER COLD AIR IN PLACE...ICE COVERAGE ON RIVERS AND LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS EVENING...BUT THIS
WILL AMOUNT TO LITTLE OF HYDROLOGIC SIGNIFICANCE.

HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF PRECIPITATION THAT
MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT COULD OCCUR...AND MUCH OF
THIS COULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. IF THIS RAIN WERE TO
MATERIALIZE...IT COULD HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...ESP CONSIDERING THE GROUND WILL BE FULLY FROZEN BY THAT
TIME...ALLOWING MUCH OF THE PRECIP TO BE RUNOFF. DETAILS WILL
BECOME MORE CERTAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-064>066-083-084.
MA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 121518
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1018 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS.
BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT PASSAGE...THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE
SEASON WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH BITTERLY
COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1015 AM EST...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE
NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES EARLIER THIS MORNING PLUMMETED ACROSS
THE REGION WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS...WITH BELOW
ZERO READINGS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. THESE TEMPERATURES
ARE JUST A PREVIEW OF EVEN MORE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. TO SEE HOW COLD LOW
TEMPERATURES WERE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING PLEASE REFER TO
OUR LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF
LAKE ONTARIO WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE TUGHILL PLATEAU
ALTHOUGH HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY AS SOME SCATTERED MAINLY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE BAND MAY EXTEND FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD INTO
THIS AREA...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
CHANCES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BY THE
EVENING HOURS MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS. THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER DOES SHOW SIGNS OF
SOME POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SNOW SQUALLS WITH THESE SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
THE GREATEST THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

IN TERMS OF POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...MOST
AREAS LOOK TO SEE LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION...EXCEPT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE UP TO AN
INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
ARCTIC FRONT INTERACT WITH SOME LAKE-ENHANCED MOISTURE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID
20S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WIND CHILL WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL
AREAS...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY..A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT ALONG
AN ARCTIC FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
WORK ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS ARE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE 500 HPA
VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL ELEVATE THE CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW
SQUALLS NEAR THE FRONT CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WITH A DOMINANT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS IN ITS
WAKE...VERY COLD AND LIKELY DANGEROUS WINDCHILL TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW AS WE GO THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LATEST 12/00Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL DATA SHOWS A PREDOMINANT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTING VERY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME OF
THE LATEST DATA SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURE DATA FOR H925 AND H850 BY 06Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE
REGION WILL RANGE FROM -24C TO -29C AND -30C TO -35C RESPECTIVELY.
WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS HIGHER THAN 20 KTS AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
SATURDAY...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION. HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE REACHED IN THE
EARLY MORNING BEFORE FALLING STEADILY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL. AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE COLDEST VALUES WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON. LOW TEMP
VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN -5 AND -10 ACROSS THE LOWER MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY TO
-10 TO -20 ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM -25 TO -35.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SLIGHTLY WITH
A WIND SHIFT TO MORE OF A DUE WESTERLY DIRECTION. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL
STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID FEBRUARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...HOWEVER...THE EXACT TYPES OF PRECIPITATION AND
AMOUNTS ARE STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DEPARTING
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AFTER A VERY COLD START ON MONDAY
MORNING...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE 20S.  ALTHOUGH SKIES
WILL START OFF MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLEAR...THEY WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY BY LATE IN THE DAY.

BY MONDAY EVENING...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE HEADING
NORTHWARD FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A SURGE OF GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE RUNNING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WILL BE DIVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND WILL BE
HELPING TO INFLUENCE THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS DEEPENING SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM.

MODELS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW WILL BREAK OUT
OUR REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON MONDAY NIGHT THANKS TO THE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL
LIKELY ACCUMULATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING ALOFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. PRECIP
WILL START TO MIX WITH SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
BY AROUND 06Z...AND START MIXING IN THE CAPITAL REGION TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.

ULTIMATELY...THE DURATION/LENGTH OF THE CHANGEOVER WILL DEPEND ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM....WHICH IS STILL YET TO BE DETERMINED.
A PERIOD OF ICING DUE TO FZRA COULD BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS IF
COLD AIR IS ABLE TO HANG IN.  THE MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST A TRACK
VERY CLOSE TO THE ALY CWA...AND A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE WEST TO
EAST COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE ON P-TYPE...QPF AMOUNTS...AND
TEMPS.  BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...PRECIP WILL START TO CHANGE
FROM MIXED TO PLAIN RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA SEEING A PLAIN RAIN BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AMOUNT OF QPF ON
TUESDAY...AND THE PRECIP COULD BE LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY AT
TIMES. EAST OF THE STORM TRACK...TEMPS COULD RISE WELL INTO THE
40S...WHILE WEST OF THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. WITH THE STORM EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 990 HPA AND FEATURE A
STRONG LLJ...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME GUSTY WINDS...ESP
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ALL THESE HAZARDS IN OUR HWO STATEMENT.

AS THE STORM LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN
CANADA...IT WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY STRENGTH. WITH COLD AIR RUSHING
BEHIND THE STORM...ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS WITH THE BACKSIDE
PRECIP...BUT AGAIN...THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
STORM.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK WITH SOME PASSING NORTHERN
STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEMS AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AT THE HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS
OF KGFL/KALB/KPOU WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS ARE ALLOWING FOR MVFR CIGS AT KPSF
THIS MORNING. WILL ALLOW A TEMPO FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT WITH
DAYTIME MIXING BEGINNING SOON...WILL EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO MIX OUT
AT KPSF SHORTLY.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...WINDS WILL BE S-SW AT AROUND 5-10 KTS. SKIES
WILL BE FAIRLY CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH JUST FEW-SCT DIURNAL
CU AND PASSING CIRRUS. CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING
AS AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR A ROGUE SNOW SHOWER OR SNOW
SQUALL FOR LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE FAIRLY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE IN
PLACE...SO WILL ONLY ADDRESS WITH JUST A VCSH FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE VFR TONIGHT WITH BKN-OVC CIGS
AROUND 4-8 KFT...AND SW WINDS AROUND 5 KTS. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY
SWITCH TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS 12Z SATURDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO
SIG WX.
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN...SLEET.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...FZRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH BITTER COLD AIR IN PLACE...ICE COVERAGE ON RIVERS AND LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS EVENING...BUT THIS
WILL AMOUNT TO LITTLE OF HYDROLOGIC SIGNIFICANCE.

HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF PRECIPITATION THAT
MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT COULD OCCUR...AND MUCH OF
THIS COULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. IF THIS RAIN WERE TO
MATERIALIZE...IT COULD HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...ESP CONSIDERING THE GROUND WILL BE FULLY FROZEN BY THAT
TIME...ALLOWING MUCH OF THE PRECIP TO BE RUNOFF. DETAILS WILL
BECOME MORE CERTAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-064>066-083-084.
MA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 121505
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1005 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS. BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT PASSAGE...THE
COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1000 AM EST...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE
NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES EARLIER THIS MORNING PLUMMETED ACROSS
THE REGION WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS...WITH BELOW
ZERO READINGS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. THESE TEMPERATURES
ARE JUST A PREVIEW OF EVEN MORE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. TO SEE HOW COLD LOW
TEMPERATURES WERE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING PLEASE REFER TO
OUR LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF
LAKE ONTARIO WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE TUGHILL PLATEAU
ALTHOUGH HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY AS SOME SCATTERED MAINLY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE BAND MAY EXTEND FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD INTO
THIS AREA...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BY THE MID-
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. BY THE EVENING
HOURS MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. THE BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER DOES SHOW SIGNS OF SOME
POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SNOW SQUALLS WITH THESE SNOW SHOWERS...WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR SQUALLS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

IN TERMS OF POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...MOST
AREAS LOOK TO SEE LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION...EXCEPT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE UP TO AN
INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
ARCTIC FRONT INTERACT WITH SOME LAKE-ENHANCED MOISTURE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID
20S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WIND CHILL WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL
AREAS...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY..A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT ALONG
AN ARCTIC FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
WORK ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS ARE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE 500 HPA
VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL ELEVATE THE CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW
SQUALLS NEAR THE FRONT CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WITH A DOMINANT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS IN ITS
WAKE...VERY COLD AND LIKELY DANGEROUS WINDCHILL TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW AS WE GO THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LATEST 12/00Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL DATA SHOWS A PREDOMINANT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTING VERY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME OF
THE LATEST DATA SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURE DATA FOR H925 AND H850 BY 06Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE
REGION WILL RANGE FROM -24C TO -29C AND -30C TO -35C RESPECTIVELY.
WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS HIGHER THAN 20 KTS AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
SATURDAY...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION. HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE REACHED IN THE
EARLY MORNING BEFORE FALLING STEADILY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL. AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE COLDEST VALUES WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON. LOW TEMP
VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN -5 AND -10 ACROSS THE LOWER MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY TO
-10 TO -20 ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM -25 TO -35.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SLIGHTLY WITH
A WIND SHIFT TO MORE OF A DUE WESTERLY DIRECTION. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL
STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID FEBRUARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...HOWEVER...THE EXACT TYPES OF PRECIPITATION AND
AMOUNTS ARE STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DEPARTING
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AFTER A VERY COLD START ON MONDAY
MORNING...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE 20S.  ALTHOUGH SKIES
WILL START OFF MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLEAR...THEY WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY BY LATE IN THE DAY.

BY MONDAY EVENING...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE HEADING
NORTHWARD FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A SURGE OF GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE RUNNING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WILL BE DIVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND WILL BE
HELPING TO INFLUENCE THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS DEEPENING SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM.

MODELS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW WILL BREAK OUT
OUR REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON MONDAY NIGHT THANKS TO THE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL
LIKELY ACCUMULATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING ALOFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. PRECIP
WILL START TO MIX WITH SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
BY AROUND 06Z...AND START MIXING IN THE CAPITAL REGION TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.

ULTIMATELY...THE DURATION/LENGTH OF THE CHANGEOVER WILL DEPEND ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM....WHICH IS STILL YET TO BE DETERMINED.
A PERIOD OF ICING DUE TO FZRA COULD BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS IF
COLD AIR IS ABLE TO HANG IN.  THE MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST A TRACK
VERY CLOSE TO THE ALY CWA...AND A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE WEST TO
EAST COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE ON P-TYPE...QPF AMOUNTS...AND
TEMPS.  BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...PRECIP WILL START TO CHANGE
FROM MIXED TO PLAIN RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA SEEING A PLAIN RAIN BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AMOUNT OF QPF ON
TUESDAY...AND THE PRECIP COULD BE LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY AT
TIMES. EAST OF THE STORM TRACK...TEMPS COULD RISE WELL INTO THE
40S...WHILE WEST OF THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. WITH THE STORM EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 990 HPA AND FEATURE A
STRONG LLJ...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME GUSTY WINDS...ESP
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ALL THESE HAZARDS IN OUR HWO STATEMENT.

AS THE STORM LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN
CANADA...IT WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY STRENGTH. WITH COLD AIR RUSHING
BEHIND THE STORM...ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS WITH THE BACKSIDE
PRECIP...BUT AGAIN...THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
STORM.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK WITH SOME PASSING NORTHERN
STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEMS AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AT THE HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS
OF KGFL/KALB/KPOU WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS ARE ALLOWING FOR MVFR CIGS AT KPSF
THIS MORNING. WILL ALLOW A TEMPO FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT WITH
DAYTIME MIXING BEGINNING SOON...WILL EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO MIX OUT
AT KPSF SHORTLY.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...WINDS WILL BE S-SW AT AROUND 5-10 KTS. SKIES
WILL BE FAIRLY CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH JUST FEW-SCT DIURNAL
CU AND PASSING CIRRUS. CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING
AS AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR A ROGUE SNOW SHOWER OR SNOW
SQUALL FOR LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE FAIRLY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE IN
PLACE...SO WILL ONLY ADDRESS WITH JUST A VCSH FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE VFR TONIGHT WITH BKN-OVC CIGS
AROUND 4-8 KFT...AND SW WINDS AROUND 5 KTS. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY
SWITCH TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS 12Z SATURDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO
SIG WX.
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN...SLEET.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...FZRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH BITTER COLD AIR IN PLACE...ICE COVERAGE ON RIVERS AND LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS EVENING...BUT THIS
WILL AMOUNT TO LITTLE OF HYDROLOGIC SIGNIFICANCE.

HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF PRECIPITATION THAT
MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT COULD OCCUR...AND MUCH OF
THIS COULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. IF THIS RAIN WERE TO
MATERIALIZE...IT COULD HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...ESP CONSIDERING THE GROUND WILL BE FULLY FROZEN BY THAT
TIME...ALLOWING MUCH OF THE PRECIP TO BE RUNOFF. DETAILS WILL
BECOME MORE CERTAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-064>066-083-084.
MA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 121447
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
947 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ARCTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO SOUTHERN
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS OR
SQUALLS ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST
AIR MASS OF THE WINTER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. A MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MONDAY...WITH A STRONG STORM SYSTEM
BRINGING MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 939 AM EST FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. TRANQUIL AND COLD THIS MORNING WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN VT. BEGINNING TO SEE
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (SOUTH WINDS
12KTS AT BTV AT 14Z) AND THAT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
CURRENTLY...BUT INCREASING SSW-SW FLOW FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NRN NY AND VT
INTO THIS AFTN. ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF ONTARIO PER
KTYX-88D WILL ELONGATE AS BACKGROUND FLOW STRENGTHENS...AND BACK
INTO ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY LATER THIS MORNING. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS ON TRACK FOR SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY FOR LOW VSBY AND
SNOW COVERED ROADS RESULTING IN AREAS OF SLOW TRAVEL FOR THE AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SFC ARCTIC BNDRY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...THEN BE OVER OUR
REGION TONIGHT. SHARP ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS OUR
AREA AND USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. BACKING
FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BRING ABOUT FAVORABLE LAKE
EFFECT FLOW FROM LAKE ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
TODAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY
AFTER 15Z...AND PERSIST THRU 00Z. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
MAINLY BE CONFINED TO ST LAWRENCE COUNTY. THE REST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. AREAS AFFECTED BY LAKE EFFECT SHOULD
SEE ABOUT 3 TO 7 INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW...SOME ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S.

TONIGHT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA...FROM
00 TO 12Z. A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL LEAD THE FRONT AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOWFALL TOTALS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SHUT DOWN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. VERY
HIGH SNOW RATIOS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR MASS
MOVING INTO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS VERMONT...WITH NEGATIVE TEENS IN NORTHERN
NEW YORK WHERE THE COLD AIR REACHES SOONER. BRISK WINDS AND THESE
COLD TEMPERATURES BRING ABOUT WIND CHILL CONCERNS. HAVE UPDATED
THE WATCH TO A WARNING. WIND CHILL VALUES DIP INTO THE NEGATIVE
20S ACROSS PARTS OF OUR AREA TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTHERN NEW YORK.
THIS IS JUST THE BEGINNING OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON MOVING
INTO OUR AREA BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 449 AM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE BIG WEATHER STORY FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER DUE BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS. COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF STRONG COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FAIRLY STEADY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH READINGS
AROUND 10 BELOW DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ACROSS THE
REST OF VERMONT EARLY SATURDAY...THEN SLIDE BACK BELOW ZERO
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE WELL BELOW ZERO...RANGING MOSTLY FROM 10
BELOW TO 25 BELOW ZERO AS CORE OF COLDEST AIR ALOFT (850 MB TEMPS
AROUND -30C) MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL THEN
STRUGGLE TO TOP ZERO IN MOST AREAS. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
SATURDAY BETWEEN DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM GREAT LAKES...WITH WIND GUSTS 15 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED.
WIND GUSTS OF 10 TO 20 MPH STILL POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS THEN EASE AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND CHILL TEMPS WILL BE IN WARNING CRITERIA FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...RANGING FROM 25 TO AS LOW AS 40 BELOW ZERO.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL RESULT IN BEST CHANCES OVER NORTHERN VERMONT.
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT WILL COME TO AN END
SATURDAY EVENING AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME
SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS. EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS
LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE MID 30S...SO CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME STEAM CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN COLDER AIR AND PERHAPS A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 449 AM EST FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SUBZERO READINGS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
HIGH WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 20S WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY HOWEVER AS
WEAK RIDGE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THOUGH AS THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE FROM DIGGING 500MB
TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH TAKES ON
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT LIFTS RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ON TUESDAY. MODELS
STILL DIFFER ON TRACK OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE THAT DEVELOPS...BUT
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE TRACK WILL BE
INLAND. THIS WOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH WARMING TO ALLOW FOR A
CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW TO RAIN OR MIXED PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WELL INTO THE 30S. AS THE LOW LIFTS
NORTH AND EAST TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN OR MIXED PRECIP THEN CHANGES
BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS. MULTIPLE VORTICES IN 500MB TROUGH MAY KEEP
CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA. MAINLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...ALL TAF SITES ARE FINALLY VFR. WILL BEGIN
TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND LOCALLY IFR VSBY AT SLK/MSS WITH -SHSN
POSSIBLE AFTER 14Z ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW FROM LAKE
ONTARIO AND FRINGE IMPACT FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS. S AND SW
WINDS AROUND 10KTS THROUGH THIS MORNING...VEERING TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. S WINDS MAY BE A PROBLEM AT BTV GROUND OPERATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH DRIFTING OR BLOWING SNOW BY 00Z SAT
AND MAY BE GUSTING OVER 30KTS UNTIL THE ARCTIC FRONT PASSES EARLY
SAT. LOCAL VLIFR IN SNOW SQUALLS BRIEFLY POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
02-05Z ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND 05-09Z ACROSS VT AS ARCTIC FRONT
MOVES THRU...WITH VISIBILITY BRIEFLY LESS THAN 1/2 MILE AND A WIND
SHIFT TO NW WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS. MODEST IMPACT TO AIRPORT
GROUND OPERATIONS WITH DUSTING TO 2" SNOWFALL POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR AFTER 12Z
SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY PRECIP WILL
BE BEGINNING AND SPREADING SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA.
DEPENDING ON PTYPE...WILL SEE SOME MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ029-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 121136
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
636 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ARCTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO SOUTHERN
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS OR
SQUALLS ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT TONIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN THE
COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE WINTER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH BITTERLY
COLD TEMPERATURES. A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
MONDAY...WITH A STORM SYSTEM BRINGING MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION
POTENTIALLY FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EST FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND TROF WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...THEN BE OVER OUR
REGION TONIGHT. SHARP ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS OUR
AREA AND USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. BACKING
FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BRING ABOUT FAVORABLE LAKE
EFFECT FLOW FROM LAKE ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
TODAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH OUR FORECAST AREA
FROM 15-00Z. THE LAKE EFFECT WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO ST
LAWRENCE COUNTY. THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
TODAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT
TIMES AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM. AREAS AFFECTED BY LAKE EFFECT SHOULD SEE ABOUT 3 TO 7
INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW...SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

TONIGHT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA...FROM
00 TO 12Z. A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL LEAD THE FRONT AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOWFALL TOTALS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SHUT DOWN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. VERY
HIGH SNOW RATIOS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR MASS
MOVING INTO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS VERMONT...WITH NEGATIVE TEENS IN NORTHERN
NEW YORK WHERE THE COLD AIR REACHES SOONER. BRISK WINDS AND THESE
COLD TEMPERATURES BRING ABOUT WIND CHILL CONCERNS. HAVE UPDATED
THE WATCH TO A WARNING. WIND CHILL VALUES DIP INTO THE NEGATIVE
20S ACROSS PARTS OF OUR AREA TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTHERN NEW YORK.
THIS IS JUST THE BEGINNING OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON MOVING
INTO OUR AREA BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 449 AM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE BIG WEATHER STORY FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER DUE BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS. COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF STRONG COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FAIRLY STEADY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH READINGS
AROUND 10 BELOW DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ACROSS THE
REST OF VERMONT EARLY SATURDAY...THEN SLIDE BACK BELOW ZERO
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE WELL BELOW ZERO...RANGING MOSTLY FROM 10
BELOW TO 25 BELOW ZERO AS CORE OF COLDEST AIR ALOFT (850 MB TEMPS
AROUND -30C) MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL THEN
STRUGGLE TO TOP ZERO IN MOST AREAS. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
SATURDAY BETWEEN DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM GREAT LAKES...WITH WIND GUSTS 15 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED.
WIND GUSTS OF 10 TO 20 MPH STILL POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS THEN EASE AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND CHILL TEMPS WILL BE IN WARNING CRITERIA FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...RANGING FROM 25 TO AS LOW AS 40 BELOW ZERO.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL RESULT IN BEST CHANCES OVER NORTHERN VERMONT.
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT WILL COME TO AN END
SATURDAY EVENING AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME
SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS. EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS
LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE MID 30S...SO CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME STEAM CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN COLDER AIR AND PERHAPS A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 449 AM EST FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SUBZERO READINGS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
HIGH WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 20S WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY HOWEVER AS
WEAK RIDGE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THOUGH AS THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE FROM DIGGING 500MB
TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH TAKES ON
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT LIFTS RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ON TUESDAY. MODELS
STILL DIFFER ON TRACK OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE THAT DEVELOPS...BUT
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE TRACK WILL BE
INLAND. THIS WOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH WARMING TO ALLOW FOR A
CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW TO RAIN OR MIXED PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WELL INTO THE 30S. AS THE LOW LIFTS
NORTH AND EAST TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN OR MIXED PRECIP THEN CHANGES
BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS. MULTIPLE VORTICES IN 500MB TROUGH MAY KEEP
CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA. MAINLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...ALL TAF SITES ARE FINALLY VFR. WILL BEGIN
TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND LOCALLY IFR VSBY AT SLK/MSS WITH -SHSN
POSSIBLE AFTER 14Z ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW FROM LAKE
ONTARIO AND FRINGE IMPACT FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS. S AND SW
WINDS AROUND 10KTS THROUGH THIS MORNING...VEERING TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. S WINDS MAY BE A PROBLEM AT BTV GROUND OPERATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH DRIFTING OR BLOWING SNOW BY 00Z SAT
AND MAY BE GUSTING OVER 30KTS UNTIL THE ARCTIC FRONT PASSES EARLY
SAT. LOCAL VLIFR IN SNOW SQUALLS BRIEFLY POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
02-05Z ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND 05-09Z ACROSS VT AS ARCTIC FRONT
MOVES THRU...WITH VISIBILITY BRIEFLY LESS THAN 1/2 MILE AND A WIND
SHIFT TO NW WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS. MODEST IMPACT TO AIRPORT
GROUND OPERATIONS WITH DUSTING TO 2" SNOWFALL POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR AFTER 12Z
SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY PRECIP WILL
BE BEGINNING AND SPREADING SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA.
DEPENDING ON PTYPE...WILL SEE SOME MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ029-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 121136
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
636 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ARCTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO SOUTHERN
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS OR
SQUALLS ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT TONIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN THE
COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE WINTER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH BITTERLY
COLD TEMPERATURES. A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
MONDAY...WITH A STORM SYSTEM BRINGING MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION
POTENTIALLY FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EST FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND TROF WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...THEN BE OVER OUR
REGION TONIGHT. SHARP ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS OUR
AREA AND USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. BACKING
FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BRING ABOUT FAVORABLE LAKE
EFFECT FLOW FROM LAKE ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
TODAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH OUR FORECAST AREA
FROM 15-00Z. THE LAKE EFFECT WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO ST
LAWRENCE COUNTY. THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
TODAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT
TIMES AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM. AREAS AFFECTED BY LAKE EFFECT SHOULD SEE ABOUT 3 TO 7
INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW...SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

TONIGHT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA...FROM
00 TO 12Z. A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL LEAD THE FRONT AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOWFALL TOTALS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SHUT DOWN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. VERY
HIGH SNOW RATIOS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR MASS
MOVING INTO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS VERMONT...WITH NEGATIVE TEENS IN NORTHERN
NEW YORK WHERE THE COLD AIR REACHES SOONER. BRISK WINDS AND THESE
COLD TEMPERATURES BRING ABOUT WIND CHILL CONCERNS. HAVE UPDATED
THE WATCH TO A WARNING. WIND CHILL VALUES DIP INTO THE NEGATIVE
20S ACROSS PARTS OF OUR AREA TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTHERN NEW YORK.
THIS IS JUST THE BEGINNING OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON MOVING
INTO OUR AREA BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 449 AM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE BIG WEATHER STORY FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER DUE BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS. COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF STRONG COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FAIRLY STEADY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH READINGS
AROUND 10 BELOW DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ACROSS THE
REST OF VERMONT EARLY SATURDAY...THEN SLIDE BACK BELOW ZERO
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE WELL BELOW ZERO...RANGING MOSTLY FROM 10
BELOW TO 25 BELOW ZERO AS CORE OF COLDEST AIR ALOFT (850 MB TEMPS
AROUND -30C) MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL THEN
STRUGGLE TO TOP ZERO IN MOST AREAS. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
SATURDAY BETWEEN DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM GREAT LAKES...WITH WIND GUSTS 15 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED.
WIND GUSTS OF 10 TO 20 MPH STILL POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS THEN EASE AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND CHILL TEMPS WILL BE IN WARNING CRITERIA FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...RANGING FROM 25 TO AS LOW AS 40 BELOW ZERO.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL RESULT IN BEST CHANCES OVER NORTHERN VERMONT.
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT WILL COME TO AN END
SATURDAY EVENING AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME
SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS. EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS
LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE MID 30S...SO CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME STEAM CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN COLDER AIR AND PERHAPS A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 449 AM EST FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SUBZERO READINGS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
HIGH WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 20S WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY HOWEVER AS
WEAK RIDGE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THOUGH AS THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE FROM DIGGING 500MB
TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH TAKES ON
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT LIFTS RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ON TUESDAY. MODELS
STILL DIFFER ON TRACK OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE THAT DEVELOPS...BUT
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE TRACK WILL BE
INLAND. THIS WOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH WARMING TO ALLOW FOR A
CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW TO RAIN OR MIXED PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WELL INTO THE 30S. AS THE LOW LIFTS
NORTH AND EAST TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN OR MIXED PRECIP THEN CHANGES
BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS. MULTIPLE VORTICES IN 500MB TROUGH MAY KEEP
CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA. MAINLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...ALL TAF SITES ARE FINALLY VFR. WILL BEGIN
TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND LOCALLY IFR VSBY AT SLK/MSS WITH -SHSN
POSSIBLE AFTER 14Z ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW FROM LAKE
ONTARIO AND FRINGE IMPACT FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS. S AND SW
WINDS AROUND 10KTS THROUGH THIS MORNING...VEERING TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. S WINDS MAY BE A PROBLEM AT BTV GROUND OPERATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH DRIFTING OR BLOWING SNOW BY 00Z SAT
AND MAY BE GUSTING OVER 30KTS UNTIL THE ARCTIC FRONT PASSES EARLY
SAT. LOCAL VLIFR IN SNOW SQUALLS BRIEFLY POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
02-05Z ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND 05-09Z ACROSS VT AS ARCTIC FRONT
MOVES THRU...WITH VISIBILITY BRIEFLY LESS THAN 1/2 MILE AND A WIND
SHIFT TO NW WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS. MODEST IMPACT TO AIRPORT
GROUND OPERATIONS WITH DUSTING TO 2" SNOWFALL POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR AFTER 12Z
SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY PRECIP WILL
BE BEGINNING AND SPREADING SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA.
DEPENDING ON PTYPE...WILL SEE SOME MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ029-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 121136
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
636 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ARCTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO SOUTHERN
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS OR
SQUALLS ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT TONIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN THE
COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE WINTER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH BITTERLY
COLD TEMPERATURES. A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
MONDAY...WITH A STORM SYSTEM BRINGING MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION
POTENTIALLY FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM EST FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND TROF WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...THEN BE OVER OUR
REGION TONIGHT. SHARP ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS OUR
AREA AND USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. BACKING
FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BRING ABOUT FAVORABLE LAKE
EFFECT FLOW FROM LAKE ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
TODAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH OUR FORECAST AREA
FROM 15-00Z. THE LAKE EFFECT WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO ST
LAWRENCE COUNTY. THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
TODAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT
TIMES AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM. AREAS AFFECTED BY LAKE EFFECT SHOULD SEE ABOUT 3 TO 7
INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW...SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

TONIGHT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA...FROM
00 TO 12Z. A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL LEAD THE FRONT AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOWFALL TOTALS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SHUT DOWN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. VERY
HIGH SNOW RATIOS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR MASS
MOVING INTO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS VERMONT...WITH NEGATIVE TEENS IN NORTHERN
NEW YORK WHERE THE COLD AIR REACHES SOONER. BRISK WINDS AND THESE
COLD TEMPERATURES BRING ABOUT WIND CHILL CONCERNS. HAVE UPDATED
THE WATCH TO A WARNING. WIND CHILL VALUES DIP INTO THE NEGATIVE
20S ACROSS PARTS OF OUR AREA TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTHERN NEW YORK.
THIS IS JUST THE BEGINNING OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON MOVING
INTO OUR AREA BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 449 AM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE BIG WEATHER STORY FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER DUE BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS. COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF STRONG COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FAIRLY STEADY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH READINGS
AROUND 10 BELOW DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ACROSS THE
REST OF VERMONT EARLY SATURDAY...THEN SLIDE BACK BELOW ZERO
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE WELL BELOW ZERO...RANGING MOSTLY FROM 10
BELOW TO 25 BELOW ZERO AS CORE OF COLDEST AIR ALOFT (850 MB TEMPS
AROUND -30C) MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL THEN
STRUGGLE TO TOP ZERO IN MOST AREAS. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
SATURDAY BETWEEN DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM GREAT LAKES...WITH WIND GUSTS 15 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED.
WIND GUSTS OF 10 TO 20 MPH STILL POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS THEN EASE AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND CHILL TEMPS WILL BE IN WARNING CRITERIA FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...RANGING FROM 25 TO AS LOW AS 40 BELOW ZERO.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL RESULT IN BEST CHANCES OVER NORTHERN VERMONT.
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT WILL COME TO AN END
SATURDAY EVENING AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME
SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS. EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS
LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE MID 30S...SO CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME STEAM CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN COLDER AIR AND PERHAPS A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 449 AM EST FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SUBZERO READINGS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
HIGH WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 20S WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY HOWEVER AS
WEAK RIDGE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THOUGH AS THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE FROM DIGGING 500MB
TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH TAKES ON
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT LIFTS RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ON TUESDAY. MODELS
STILL DIFFER ON TRACK OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE THAT DEVELOPS...BUT
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE TRACK WILL BE
INLAND. THIS WOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH WARMING TO ALLOW FOR A
CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW TO RAIN OR MIXED PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WELL INTO THE 30S. AS THE LOW LIFTS
NORTH AND EAST TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN OR MIXED PRECIP THEN CHANGES
BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS. MULTIPLE VORTICES IN 500MB TROUGH MAY KEEP
CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA. MAINLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...ALL TAF SITES ARE FINALLY VFR. WILL BEGIN
TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND LOCALLY IFR VSBY AT SLK/MSS WITH -SHSN
POSSIBLE AFTER 14Z ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW FROM LAKE
ONTARIO AND FRINGE IMPACT FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS. S AND SW
WINDS AROUND 10KTS THROUGH THIS MORNING...VEERING TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. S WINDS MAY BE A PROBLEM AT BTV GROUND OPERATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH DRIFTING OR BLOWING SNOW BY 00Z SAT
AND MAY BE GUSTING OVER 30KTS UNTIL THE ARCTIC FRONT PASSES EARLY
SAT. LOCAL VLIFR IN SNOW SQUALLS BRIEFLY POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
02-05Z ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND 05-09Z ACROSS VT AS ARCTIC FRONT
MOVES THRU...WITH VISIBILITY BRIEFLY LESS THAN 1/2 MILE AND A WIND
SHIFT TO NW WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS. MODEST IMPACT TO AIRPORT
GROUND OPERATIONS WITH DUSTING TO 2" SNOWFALL POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR AFTER 12Z
SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY PRECIP WILL
BE BEGINNING AND SPREADING SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA.
DEPENDING ON PTYPE...WILL SEE SOME MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ029-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KALY 121129
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
629 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND
SOME SNOW SQUALLS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT...WINDY AND
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 625 AM...A DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF OF LAKE
ONTARIO IS PROPAGATING JUST WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR ITS INLAND EXTENT AS IT IS CLOSE TO THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO DROP OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH MANY LOCATIONS NORTH
OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION BELOW ZERO.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED ACROSS OUR WESTERN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND UPSTREAM OF A
SMALL AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ORIENT THE BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS FROM
SW TO NE. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE REFLECTED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES THAT BEST REFLECT THE ORIENTATION
OF THE WIND FIELD AND SNOW BANDS SET UP. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
TO LOWER AND MID 20S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WIND CHILL WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL
AREAS...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY..A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT ALONG
AN ARCTIC FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
WORK ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS ARE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE 500 HPA
VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL ELEVATE THE CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW
SQUALLS NEAR THE FRONT CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WITH A DOMINANT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS IN ITS
WAKE...VERY COLD AND LIKELY DANGEROUS WINDCHILL TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW AS WE GO THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LATEST 12/00Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL DATA SHOWS A PREDOMINANT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTING VERY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME OF
THE LATEST DATA SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURE DATA FOR H925 AND H850 BY 06Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE
REGION WILL RANGE FROM -24C TO -29C AND -30C TO -35C RESPECTIVELY.
WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS HIGHER THAN 20 KTS AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
SATURDAY...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION. HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE REACHED IN THE
EARLY MORNING BEFORE FALLING STEADILY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL. AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE COLDEST VALUES WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON. LOW TEMP
VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN -5 AND -10 ACROSS THE LOWER MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY TO
-10 TO -20 ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM -25 TO -35.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SLIGHTLY WITH
A WIND SHIFT TO MORE OF A DUE WESTERLY DIRECTION. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL
STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID FEBRUARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...HOWEVER...THE EXACT TYPES OF PRECIPITATION AND
AMOUNTS ARE STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DEPARTING
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AFTER A VERY COLD START ON MONDAY
MORNING...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE 20S.  ALTHOUGH SKIES
WILL START OFF MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLEAR...THEY WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY BY LATE IN THE DAY.

BY MONDAY EVENING...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE HEADING
NORTHWARD FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A SURGE OF GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE RUNNING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WILL BE DIVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND WILL BE
HELPING TO INFLUENCE THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS DEEPENING SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM.

MODELS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW WILL BREAK OUT
OUR REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON MONDAY NIGHT THANKS TO THE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL
LIKELY ACCUMULATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING ALOFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. PRECIP
WILL START TO MIX WITH SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
BY AROUND 06Z...AND START MIXING IN THE CAPITAL REGION TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.

ULTIMATELY...THE DURATION/LENGTH OF THE CHANGEOVER WILL DEPEND ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM....WHICH IS STILL YET TO BE DETERMINED.
A PERIOD OF ICING DUE TO FZRA COULD BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS IF
COLD AIR IS ABLE TO HANG IN.  THE MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST A TRACK
VERY CLOSE TO THE ALY CWA...AND A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE WEST TO
EAST COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE ON P-TYPE...QPF AMOUNTS...AND
TEMPS.  BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...PRECIP WILL START TO CHANGE
FROM MIXED TO PLAIN RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA SEEING A PLAIN RAIN BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AMOUNT OF QPF ON
TUESDAY...AND THE PRECIP COULD BE LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY AT
TIMES. EAST OF THE STORM TRACK...TEMPS COULD RISE WELL INTO THE
40S...WHILE WEST OF THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. WITH THE STORM EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 990 HPA AND FEATURE A
STRONG LLJ...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME GUSTY WINDS...ESP
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ALL THESE HAZARDS IN OUR HWO STATEMENT.

AS THE STORM LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN
CANADA...IT WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY STRENGTH. WITH COLD AIR RUSHING
BEHIND THE STORM...ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS WITH THE BACKSIDE
PRECIP...BUT AGAIN...THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
STORM.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK WITH SOME PASSING NORTHERN
STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEMS AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AT THE HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS
OF KGFL/KALB/KPOU WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS ARE ALLOWING FOR MVFR CIGS AT KPSF
THIS MORNING. WILL ALLOW A TEMPO FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT WITH
DAYTIME MIXING BEGINNING SOON...WILL EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO MIX OUT
AT KPSF SHORTLY.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...WINDS WILL BE S-SW AT AROUND 5-10 KTS. SKIES
WILL BE FAIRLY CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH JUST FEW-SCT DIURNAL
CU AND PASSING CIRRUS. CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING
AS AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR A ROGUE SNOW SHOWER OR SNOW
SQUALL FOR LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE FAIRLY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE IN
PLACE...SO WILL ONLY ADDRESS WITH JUST A VCSH FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE VFR TONIGHT WITH BKN-OVC CIGS
AROUND 4-8 KFT...AND SW WINDS AROUND 5 KTS. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY
SWITCH TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS 12Z SATURDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO
SIG WX.
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN...SLEET.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...FZRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH BITTER COLD AIR IN PLACE...ICE COVERAGE ON RIVERS AND LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS EVENING...BUT THIS
WILL AMOUNT TO LITTLE OF HYDROLOGIC SIGNIFICANCE.

HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF PRECIPITATION THAT
MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT COULD OCCUR...AND MUCH OF
THIS COULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. IF THIS RAIN WERE TO
MATERIALIZE...IT COULD HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...ESP CONSIDERING THE GROUND WILL BE FULLY FROZEN BY THAT
TIME...ALLOWING MUCH OF THE PRECIP TO BE RUNOFF. DETAILS WILL
BECOME MORE CERTAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-064>066-083-084.
MA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 121129
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
629 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND
SOME SNOW SQUALLS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT...WINDY AND
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 625 AM...A DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF OF LAKE
ONTARIO IS PROPAGATING JUST WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR ITS INLAND EXTENT AS IT IS CLOSE TO THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO DROP OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH MANY LOCATIONS NORTH
OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION BELOW ZERO.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED ACROSS OUR WESTERN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND UPSTREAM OF A
SMALL AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ORIENT THE BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS FROM
SW TO NE. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE REFLECTED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES THAT BEST REFLECT THE ORIENTATION
OF THE WIND FIELD AND SNOW BANDS SET UP. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
TO LOWER AND MID 20S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WIND CHILL WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL
AREAS...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY..A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT ALONG
AN ARCTIC FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
WORK ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS ARE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE 500 HPA
VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL ELEVATE THE CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW
SQUALLS NEAR THE FRONT CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WITH A DOMINANT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS IN ITS
WAKE...VERY COLD AND LIKELY DANGEROUS WINDCHILL TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW AS WE GO THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LATEST 12/00Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL DATA SHOWS A PREDOMINANT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTING VERY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME OF
THE LATEST DATA SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURE DATA FOR H925 AND H850 BY 06Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE
REGION WILL RANGE FROM -24C TO -29C AND -30C TO -35C RESPECTIVELY.
WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS HIGHER THAN 20 KTS AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
SATURDAY...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION. HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE REACHED IN THE
EARLY MORNING BEFORE FALLING STEADILY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL. AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE COLDEST VALUES WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON. LOW TEMP
VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN -5 AND -10 ACROSS THE LOWER MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY TO
-10 TO -20 ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM -25 TO -35.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SLIGHTLY WITH
A WIND SHIFT TO MORE OF A DUE WESTERLY DIRECTION. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL
STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID FEBRUARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...HOWEVER...THE EXACT TYPES OF PRECIPITATION AND
AMOUNTS ARE STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DEPARTING
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AFTER A VERY COLD START ON MONDAY
MORNING...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE 20S.  ALTHOUGH SKIES
WILL START OFF MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLEAR...THEY WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY BY LATE IN THE DAY.

BY MONDAY EVENING...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE HEADING
NORTHWARD FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A SURGE OF GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE RUNNING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WILL BE DIVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND WILL BE
HELPING TO INFLUENCE THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS DEEPENING SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM.

MODELS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW WILL BREAK OUT
OUR REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON MONDAY NIGHT THANKS TO THE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL
LIKELY ACCUMULATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING ALOFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. PRECIP
WILL START TO MIX WITH SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
BY AROUND 06Z...AND START MIXING IN THE CAPITAL REGION TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.

ULTIMATELY...THE DURATION/LENGTH OF THE CHANGEOVER WILL DEPEND ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM....WHICH IS STILL YET TO BE DETERMINED.
A PERIOD OF ICING DUE TO FZRA COULD BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS IF
COLD AIR IS ABLE TO HANG IN.  THE MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST A TRACK
VERY CLOSE TO THE ALY CWA...AND A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE WEST TO
EAST COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE ON P-TYPE...QPF AMOUNTS...AND
TEMPS.  BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...PRECIP WILL START TO CHANGE
FROM MIXED TO PLAIN RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA SEEING A PLAIN RAIN BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AMOUNT OF QPF ON
TUESDAY...AND THE PRECIP COULD BE LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY AT
TIMES. EAST OF THE STORM TRACK...TEMPS COULD RISE WELL INTO THE
40S...WHILE WEST OF THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. WITH THE STORM EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 990 HPA AND FEATURE A
STRONG LLJ...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME GUSTY WINDS...ESP
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ALL THESE HAZARDS IN OUR HWO STATEMENT.

AS THE STORM LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN
CANADA...IT WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY STRENGTH. WITH COLD AIR RUSHING
BEHIND THE STORM...ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS WITH THE BACKSIDE
PRECIP...BUT AGAIN...THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
STORM.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK WITH SOME PASSING NORTHERN
STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEMS AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AT THE HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS
OF KGFL/KALB/KPOU WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS ARE ALLOWING FOR MVFR CIGS AT KPSF
THIS MORNING. WILL ALLOW A TEMPO FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT WITH
DAYTIME MIXING BEGINNING SOON...WILL EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO MIX OUT
AT KPSF SHORTLY.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...WINDS WILL BE S-SW AT AROUND 5-10 KTS. SKIES
WILL BE FAIRLY CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH JUST FEW-SCT DIURNAL
CU AND PASSING CIRRUS. CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING
AS AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR A ROGUE SNOW SHOWER OR SNOW
SQUALL FOR LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE FAIRLY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE IN
PLACE...SO WILL ONLY ADDRESS WITH JUST A VCSH FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE VFR TONIGHT WITH BKN-OVC CIGS
AROUND 4-8 KFT...AND SW WINDS AROUND 5 KTS. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY
SWITCH TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS 12Z SATURDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO
SIG WX.
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN...SLEET.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...FZRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH BITTER COLD AIR IN PLACE...ICE COVERAGE ON RIVERS AND LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS EVENING...BUT THIS
WILL AMOUNT TO LITTLE OF HYDROLOGIC SIGNIFICANCE.

HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF PRECIPITATION THAT
MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT COULD OCCUR...AND MUCH OF
THIS COULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. IF THIS RAIN WERE TO
MATERIALIZE...IT COULD HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...ESP CONSIDERING THE GROUND WILL BE FULLY FROZEN BY THAT
TIME...ALLOWING MUCH OF THE PRECIP TO BE RUNOFF. DETAILS WILL
BECOME MORE CERTAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-064>066-083-084.
MA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



000
FXUS61 KALY 121129
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
629 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND
SOME SNOW SQUALLS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT...WINDY AND
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 625 AM...A DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF OF LAKE
ONTARIO IS PROPAGATING JUST WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR ITS INLAND EXTENT AS IT IS CLOSE TO THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO DROP OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH MANY LOCATIONS NORTH
OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION BELOW ZERO.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED ACROSS OUR WESTERN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND UPSTREAM OF A
SMALL AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ORIENT THE BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS FROM
SW TO NE. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE REFLECTED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES THAT BEST REFLECT THE ORIENTATION
OF THE WIND FIELD AND SNOW BANDS SET UP. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
TO LOWER AND MID 20S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WIND CHILL WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL
AREAS...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY..A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT ALONG
AN ARCTIC FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
WORK ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS ARE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE 500 HPA
VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL ELEVATE THE CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW
SQUALLS NEAR THE FRONT CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WITH A DOMINANT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS IN ITS
WAKE...VERY COLD AND LIKELY DANGEROUS WINDCHILL TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW AS WE GO THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LATEST 12/00Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL DATA SHOWS A PREDOMINANT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTING VERY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME OF
THE LATEST DATA SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURE DATA FOR H925 AND H850 BY 06Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE
REGION WILL RANGE FROM -24C TO -29C AND -30C TO -35C RESPECTIVELY.
WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS HIGHER THAN 20 KTS AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
SATURDAY...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION. HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE REACHED IN THE
EARLY MORNING BEFORE FALLING STEADILY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL. AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE COLDEST VALUES WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON. LOW TEMP
VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN -5 AND -10 ACROSS THE LOWER MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY TO
-10 TO -20 ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM -25 TO -35.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SLIGHTLY WITH
A WIND SHIFT TO MORE OF A DUE WESTERLY DIRECTION. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL
STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID FEBRUARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...HOWEVER...THE EXACT TYPES OF PRECIPITATION AND
AMOUNTS ARE STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DEPARTING
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AFTER A VERY COLD START ON MONDAY
MORNING...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE 20S.  ALTHOUGH SKIES
WILL START OFF MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLEAR...THEY WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY BY LATE IN THE DAY.

BY MONDAY EVENING...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE HEADING
NORTHWARD FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A SURGE OF GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE RUNNING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WILL BE DIVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND WILL BE
HELPING TO INFLUENCE THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS DEEPENING SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM.

MODELS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW WILL BREAK OUT
OUR REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON MONDAY NIGHT THANKS TO THE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL
LIKELY ACCUMULATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING ALOFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. PRECIP
WILL START TO MIX WITH SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
BY AROUND 06Z...AND START MIXING IN THE CAPITAL REGION TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.

ULTIMATELY...THE DURATION/LENGTH OF THE CHANGEOVER WILL DEPEND ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM....WHICH IS STILL YET TO BE DETERMINED.
A PERIOD OF ICING DUE TO FZRA COULD BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS IF
COLD AIR IS ABLE TO HANG IN.  THE MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST A TRACK
VERY CLOSE TO THE ALY CWA...AND A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE WEST TO
EAST COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE ON P-TYPE...QPF AMOUNTS...AND
TEMPS.  BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...PRECIP WILL START TO CHANGE
FROM MIXED TO PLAIN RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA SEEING A PLAIN RAIN BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AMOUNT OF QPF ON
TUESDAY...AND THE PRECIP COULD BE LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY AT
TIMES. EAST OF THE STORM TRACK...TEMPS COULD RISE WELL INTO THE
40S...WHILE WEST OF THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. WITH THE STORM EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 990 HPA AND FEATURE A
STRONG LLJ...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME GUSTY WINDS...ESP
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ALL THESE HAZARDS IN OUR HWO STATEMENT.

AS THE STORM LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN
CANADA...IT WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY STRENGTH. WITH COLD AIR RUSHING
BEHIND THE STORM...ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS WITH THE BACKSIDE
PRECIP...BUT AGAIN...THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
STORM.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK WITH SOME PASSING NORTHERN
STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEMS AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AT THE HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS
OF KGFL/KALB/KPOU WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS ARE ALLOWING FOR MVFR CIGS AT KPSF
THIS MORNING. WILL ALLOW A TEMPO FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT WITH
DAYTIME MIXING BEGINNING SOON...WILL EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO MIX OUT
AT KPSF SHORTLY.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...WINDS WILL BE S-SW AT AROUND 5-10 KTS. SKIES
WILL BE FAIRLY CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH JUST FEW-SCT DIURNAL
CU AND PASSING CIRRUS. CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING
AS AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR A ROGUE SNOW SHOWER OR SNOW
SQUALL FOR LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE FAIRLY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE IN
PLACE...SO WILL ONLY ADDRESS WITH JUST A VCSH FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE VFR TONIGHT WITH BKN-OVC CIGS
AROUND 4-8 KFT...AND SW WINDS AROUND 5 KTS. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY
SWITCH TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS 12Z SATURDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO
SIG WX.
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN...SLEET.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA...FZRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH BITTER COLD AIR IN PLACE...ICE COVERAGE ON RIVERS AND LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS EVENING...BUT THIS
WILL AMOUNT TO LITTLE OF HYDROLOGIC SIGNIFICANCE.

HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF PRECIPITATION THAT
MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT COULD OCCUR...AND MUCH OF
THIS COULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. IF THIS RAIN WERE TO
MATERIALIZE...IT COULD HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...ESP CONSIDERING THE GROUND WILL BE FULLY FROZEN BY THAT
TIME...ALLOWING MUCH OF THE PRECIP TO BE RUNOFF. DETAILS WILL
BECOME MORE CERTAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-064>066-083-084.
MA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 121126
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
626 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND
SOME SNOW SQUALLS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT...WINDY AND
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 625 AM...A DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF OF LAKE
ONTARIO IS PROPAGATING JUST WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR ITS INLAND EXTENT AS IT IS CLOSE TO THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO DROP OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH MANY LOCATIONS NORTH
OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION BELOW ZERO.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED ACROSS OUR WESTERN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND UPSTREAM OF A
SMALL AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ORIENT THE BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS FROM
SW TO NE. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE REFLECTED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES THAT BEST REFLECT THE ORIENTATION
OF THE WIND FIELD AND SNOW BANDS SET UP. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
TO LOWER AND MID 20S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WIND CHILL WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL
AREAS...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY..A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT ALONG
AN ARCTIC FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
WORK ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS ARE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE 500 HPA
VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL ELEVATE THE CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW
SQUALLS NEAR THE FRONT CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WITH A DOMINANT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS IN ITS
WAKE...VERY COLD AND LIKELY DANGEROUS WINDCHILL TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW AS WE GO THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LATEST 12/00Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL DATA SHOWS A PREDOMINANT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTING VERY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME OF
THE LATEST DATA SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURE DATA FOR H925 AND H850 BY 06Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE
REGION WILL RANGE FROM -24C TO -29C AND -30C TO -35C RESPECTIVELY.
WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS HIGHER THAN 20 KTS AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
SATURDAY...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION. HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE REACHED IN THE
EARLY MORNING BEFORE FALLING STEADILY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL. AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE COLDEST VALUES WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON. LOW TEMP
VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN -5 AND -10 ACROSS THE LOWER MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY TO
-10 TO -20 ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM -25 TO -35.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SLIGHTLY WITH
A WIND SHIFT TO MORE OF A DUE WESTERLY DIRECTION. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL
STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID FEBRUARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...HOWEVER...THE EXACT TYPES OF PRECIPITATION AND
AMOUNTS ARE STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DEPARTING
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AFTER A VERY COLD START ON MONDAY
MORNING...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE 20S.  ALTHOUGH SKIES
WILL START OFF MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLEAR...THEY WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY BY LATE IN THE DAY.

BY MONDAY EVENING...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE HEADING
NORTHWARD FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A SURGE OF GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE RUNNING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WILL BE DIVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND WILL BE
HELPING TO INFLUENCE THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS DEEPENING SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM.

MODELS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW WILL BREAK OUT
OUR REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON MONDAY NIGHT THANKS TO THE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL
LIKELY ACCUMULATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING ALOFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. PRECIP
WILL START TO MIX WITH SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
BY AROUND 06Z...AND START MIXING IN THE CAPITAL REGION TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.

ULTIMATELY...THE DURATION/LENGTH OF THE CHANGEOVER WILL DEPEND ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM....WHICH IS STILL YET TO BE DETERMINED.
A PERIOD OF ICING DUE TO FZRA COULD BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS IF
COLD AIR IS ABLE TO HANG IN.  THE MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST A TRACK
VERY CLOSE TO THE ALY CWA...AND A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE WEST TO
EAST COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE ON P-TYPE...QPF AMOUNTS...AND
TEMPS.  BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...PRECIP WILL START TO CHANGE
FROM MIXED TO PLAIN RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA SEEING A PLAIN RAIN BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AMOUNT OF QPF ON
TUESDAY...AND THE PRECIP COULD BE LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY AT
TIMES. EAST OF THE STORM TRACK...TEMPS COULD RISE WELL INTO THE
40S...WHILE WEST OF THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. WITH THE STORM EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 990 HPA AND FEATURE A
STRONG LLJ...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME GUSTY WINDS...ESP
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ALL THESE HAZARDS IN OUR HWO STATEMENT.

AS THE STORM LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN
CANADA...IT WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY STRENGTH. WITH COLD AIR RUSHING
BEHIND THE STORM...ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS WITH THE BACKSIDE
PRECIP...BUT AGAIN...THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
STORM.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK WITH SOME PASSING NORTHERN
STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEMS AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL TERMINALS. ASIDE FROM A
FEW PASSING LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TO THE WEST OF
THE REGION...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE SO
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WEST WINDS CONTINUE TO
BE AROUND 5-10 KTS FOR MOST SITES...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES
NEAR KPOU/KPSF. HOWEVER...APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW WINDS
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BE 5
KTS OR LESS BY LATE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BE S-SW AT AROUND 5 KTS. SKIES
WILL BE FAIRLY CLEAR TO START THE DAY...BUT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BY
THE LATE AFTN HOURS OR INTO THE EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN CIGS AT 4-8
KFT...WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.

AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR A ROGUE SNOW
SHOWER OR SNOW SQUALL BY LATER FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY LOWER FLYING CONDITIONS FROM THE
VFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE VFR INTO FRI
NIGHT WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AROUND 4 KFT...AND SW WINDS AROUND 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTON`S BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH BITTER COLD AIR IN PLACE...ICE COVERAGE ON RIVERS AND LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS EVENING...BUT THIS
WILL AMOUNT TO LITTLE OF HYDROLOGIC SIGNIFICANCE.

HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF PRECIPITATION THAT
MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT COULD OCCUR...AND MUCH OF
THIS COULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. IF THIS RAIN WERE TO
MATERIALIZE...IT COULD HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...ESP CONSIDERING THE GROUND WILL BE FULLY FROZEN BY THAT
TIME...ALLOWING MUCH OF THE PRECIP TO BE RUNOFF. DETAILS WILL
BECOME MORE CERTAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-064>066-083-084.
MA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 120954
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
454 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ARCTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO SOUTHERN
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS OR
SQUALLS ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT TONIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN THE
COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE WINTER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH BITTERLY
COLD TEMPERATURES. A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
MONDAY...WITH A STORM SYSTEM BRINGING MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION
POTENTIALLY FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EST FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND TROF WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...THEN BE OVER OUR
REGION TONIGHT. SHARP ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS OUR
AREA AND USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. BACKING
FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BRING ABOUT FAVORABLE LAKE
EFFECT FLOW FROM LAKE ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
TODAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH OUR FORECAST AREA
FROM 15-00Z. THE LAKE EFFECT WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO ST
LAWRENCE COUNTY. THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
TODAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT
TIMES AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM. AREAS AFFECTED BY LAKE EFFECT SHOULD SEE ABOUT 3 TO 7
INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW...SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

TONIGHT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA...FROM
00 TO 12Z. A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL LEAD THE FRONT AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOWFALL TOTALS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SHUT DOWN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. VERY
HIGH SNOW RATIOS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR MASS
MOVING INTO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS VERMONT...WITH NEGATIVE TEENS IN NORTHERN
NEW YORK WHERE THE COLD AIR REACHES SOONER. BRISK WINDS AND THESE
COLD TEMPERATURES BRING ABOUT WIND CHILL CONCERNS. HAVE UPDATED
THE WATCH TO A WARNING. WIND CHILL VALUES DIP INTO THE NEGATIVE
20S ACROSS PARTS OF OUR AREA TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTHERN NEW YORK.
THIS IS JUST THE BEGINNING OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON MOVING
INTO OUR AREA BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 449 AM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE BIG WEATHER STORY FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER DUE BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS. COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF STRONG COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FAIRLY STEADY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH READINGS
AROUND 10 BELOW DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ACROSS THE
REST OF VERMONT EARLY SATURDAY...THEN SLIDE BACK BELOW ZERO
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE LOWER CONNECTICUT VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE WELL BELOW ZERO...RANGING MOSTLY FROM 10
BELOW TO 25 BELOW ZERO AS CORE OF COLDEST AIR ALOFT (850 MB TEMPS
AROUND -30C) MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL THEN
STRUGGLE TO TOP ZERO IN MOST AREAS. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
SATURDAY BETWEEN DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM GREAT LAKES...WITH WIND GUSTS 15 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED.
WIND GUSTS OF 10 TO 20 MPH STILL POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS THEN EASE AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND CHILL TEMPS WILL BE IN WARNING CRITERIA FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...RANGING FROM 25 TO AS LOW AS 40 BELOW ZERO.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL RESULT IN BEST CHANCES OVER NORTHERN VERMONT.
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT WILL COME TO AN END
SATURDAY EVENING AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME
SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS. EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS
LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE MID 30S...SO CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME STEAM CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN COLDER AIR AND PERHAPS A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 449 AM EST FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SUBZERO READINGS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
HIGH WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 20S WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY HOWEVER AS
WEAK RIDGE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THOUGH AS THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE FROM DIGGING 500MB
TROUGH IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH TAKES ON
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT LIFTS RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ON TUESDAY. MODELS
STILL DIFFER ON TRACK OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE THAT DEVELOPS...BUT
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE TRACK WILL BE
INLAND. THIS WOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH WARMING TO ALLOW FOR A
CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW TO RAIN OR MIXED PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WELL INTO THE 30S. AS THE LOW LIFTS
NORTH AND EAST TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN OR MIXED PRECIP THEN CHANGES
BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS. MULTIPLE VORTICES IN 500MB TROUGH MAY KEEP
CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA. MAINLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...TREND TOWARD VFR OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AND NW FLOW RELAXES GENERALLY AFTER 06Z.
BTV AND MPV CURRENTLY STILL HAVE MVFR CEILINGS. WILL BEGIN TO SEE
MVFR CEILINGS AND LOCALLY IFR VSBY AT SLK/MSS WITH -SHSN POSSIBLE
AFTER 17Z ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW FROM LAKE ONTARIO
AND FRINGE IMPACT FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS. NW WINDS BRIEFLY
GUSTY 15 TO 20 KTS...THEN GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THEN SHIFTING
TO THE S AND SW AROUND 10KTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. S WINDS MAY
BE A PROBLEM AT KBTV GROUND OPERATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
NIGHT WITH DRIFTING OR BLOWING SNOW BY 00Z SAT AND MAY BE GUSTING
OVER 30KTS UNTIL THE ARCTIC FRONT PASSES EARLY SAT A.M. LCL VLIFR
IN SNOW SQUALLS BRIEFLY POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT 02-05Z ACROSS NRN NY
AND 05-09Z ACROSS VT AS ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THRU...WITH VSBY
BRIEFLY LESS THAN 1/2 MILE AND A WIND SHIFT TO NW WITH GUSTS 20 TO
30 KTS. MODEST IMPACT TO AIRPORT GROUND OPERATIONS WITH DUSTING TO
2" SNOWFALL PSBL.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR AFTER 12Z
SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTN AND EVE. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY PRECIP WILL BE
BEGINNING AND SPREADING SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA. DEPENDING
ON PTYPE...WILL SEE SOME MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ029-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KALY 120908
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
408 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND
SOME SNOW SQUALLS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT...WINDY AND
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED ACROSS OUR WESTERN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND UPSTREAM OF A
SMALL AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ORIENT THE BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS FROM
SW TO NE. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE REFLECTED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES THAT BEST REFLECT THE ORIENTATION
OF THE WIND FIELD AND SNOW BANDS SET UP. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
TO LOWER AND MID 20S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WIND CHILL WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL
AREAS...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY..A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT ALONG
AN ARCTIC FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
WORK ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS ARE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE 500 HPA
VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL ELEVATE THE CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW
SQUALLS NEAR THE FRONT CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WITH A DOMINANT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS IN ITS
WAKE...VERY COLD AND LIKELY DANGEROUS WINDCHILL TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW AS WE GO THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LATEST 12/00Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL DATA SHOWS A PREDOMINANT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTING VERY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME OF
THE LATEST DATA SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURE DATA FOR H925 AND H850 BY 06Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE
REGION WILL RANGE FROM -24C TO -29C AND -30C TO -35C RESPECTIVELY.
WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS HIGHER THAN 20 KTS AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
SATURDAY...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION. HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE REACHED IN THE
EARLY MORNING BEFORE FALLING STEADILY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL. AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE COLDEST VALUES WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON. LOW TEMP
VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN -5 AND -10 ACROSS THE LOWER MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY TO
-10 TO -20 ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM -25 TO -35.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SLIGHTLY WITH
A WIND SHIFT TO MORE OF A DUE WESTERLY DIRECTION. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL
STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID FEBRUARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...HOWEVER...THE EXACT TYPES OF PRECIPITATION AND
AMOUNTS ARE STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DEPARTING
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AFTER A VERY COLD START ON MONDAY
MORNING...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE 20S.  ALTHOUGH SKIES
WILL START OFF MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLEAR...THEY WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY BY LATE IN THE DAY.

BY MONDAY EVENING...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE HEADING
NORTHWARD FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A SURGE OF GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE RUNNING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WILL BE DIVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND WILL BE
HELPING TO INFLUENCE THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS DEEPENING SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM.

MODELS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW WILL BREAK OUT
OUR REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON MONDAY NIGHT THANKS TO THE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL
LIKELY ACCUMULATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING ALOFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. PRECIP
WILL START TO MIX WITH SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
BY AROUND 06Z...AND START MIXING IN THE CAPITAL REGION TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.

ULTIMATELY...THE DURATION/LENGTH OF THE CHANGEOVER WILL DEPEND ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM....WHICH IS STILL YET TO BE DETERMINED.
A PERIOD OF ICING DUE TO FZRA COULD BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS IF
COLD AIR IS ABLE TO HANG IN.  THE MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST A TRACK
VERY CLOSE TO THE ALY CWA...AND A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE WEST TO
EAST COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE ON P-TYPE...QPF AMOUNTS...AND
TEMPS.  BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...PRECIP WILL START TO CHANGE
FROM MIXED TO PLAIN RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA SEEING A PLAIN RAIN BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AMOUNT OF QPF ON
TUESDAY...AND THE PRECIP COULD BE LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY AT
TIMES. EAST OF THE STORM TRACK...TEMPS COULD RISE WELL INTO THE
40S...WHILE WEST OF THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. WITH THE STORM EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 990 HPA AND FEATURE A
STRONG LLJ...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME GUSTY WINDS...ESP
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ALL THESE HAZARDS IN OUR HWO STATEMENT.

AS THE STORM LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN
CANADA...IT WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY STRENGTH. WITH COLD AIR RUSHING
BEHIND THE STORM...ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS WITH THE BACKSIDE
PRECIP...BUT AGAIN...THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
STORM.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK WITH SOME PASSING NORTHERN
STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEMS AS WELL.


&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL TERMINALS. ASIDE FROM A
FEW PASSING LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TO THE WEST OF
THE REGION...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE SO
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WEST WINDS CONTINUE TO
BE AROUND 5-10 KTS FOR MOST SITES...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES
NEAR KPOU/KPSF. HOWEVER...APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW WINDS
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BE 5
KTS OR LESS BY LATE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BE S-SW AT AROUND 5 KTS. SKIES
WILL BE FAIRLY CLEAR TO START THE DAY...BUT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BY
THE LATE AFTN HOURS OR INTO THE EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN CIGS AT 4-8
KFT...WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.

AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR A ROGUE SNOW
SHOWER OR SNOW SQUALL BY LATER FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY LOWER FLYING CONDITIONS FROM THE
VFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE VFR INTO FRI
NIGHT WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AROUND 4 KFT...AND SW WINDS AROUND 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTON`S BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH BITTER COLD AIR IN PLACE...ICE COVERAGE ON RIVERS AND LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS EVENING...BUT THIS
WILL AMOUNT TO LITTLE OF HYDROLOGIC SIGNIFICANCE.

HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF PRECIPITATION THAT
MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT COULD OCCUR...AND MUCH OF
THIS COULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. IF THIS RAIN WERE TO
MATERIALIZE...IT COULD HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...ESP CONSIDERING THE GROUND WILL BE FULLY FROZEN BY THAT
TIME...ALLOWING MUCH OF THE PRECIP TO BE RUNOFF. DETAILS WILL
BECOME MORE CERTAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-064>066-083-084.
MA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KALY 120908
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
408 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND
SOME SNOW SQUALLS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT...WINDY AND
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED ACROSS OUR WESTERN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND UPSTREAM OF A
SMALL AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ORIENT THE BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS FROM
SW TO NE. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE REFLECTED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES THAT BEST REFLECT THE ORIENTATION
OF THE WIND FIELD AND SNOW BANDS SET UP. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
TO LOWER AND MID 20S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WIND CHILL WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL
AREAS...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY..A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT ALONG
AN ARCTIC FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
WORK ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS ARE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE 500 HPA
VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL ELEVATE THE CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW
SQUALLS NEAR THE FRONT CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WITH A DOMINANT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS IN ITS
WAKE...VERY COLD AND LIKELY DANGEROUS WINDCHILL TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW AS WE GO THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LATEST 12/00Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL DATA SHOWS A PREDOMINANT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTING VERY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME OF
THE LATEST DATA SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURE DATA FOR H925 AND H850 BY 06Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE
REGION WILL RANGE FROM -24C TO -29C AND -30C TO -35C RESPECTIVELY.
WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS HIGHER THAN 20 KTS AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
SATURDAY...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION. HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE REACHED IN THE
EARLY MORNING BEFORE FALLING STEADILY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL. AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE COLDEST VALUES WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON. LOW TEMP
VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN -5 AND -10 ACROSS THE LOWER MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY TO
-10 TO -20 ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM -25 TO -35.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LARGE COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SLIGHTLY WITH
A WIND SHIFT TO MORE OF A DUE WESTERLY DIRECTION. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL
STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID FEBRUARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...HOWEVER...THE EXACT TYPES OF PRECIPITATION AND
AMOUNTS ARE STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DEPARTING
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AFTER A VERY COLD START ON MONDAY
MORNING...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE 20S.  ALTHOUGH SKIES
WILL START OFF MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLEAR...THEY WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY BY LATE IN THE DAY.

BY MONDAY EVENING...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE HEADING
NORTHWARD FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A SURGE OF GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE RUNNING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WILL BE DIVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND WILL BE
HELPING TO INFLUENCE THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS DEEPENING SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM.

MODELS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW WILL BREAK OUT
OUR REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON MONDAY NIGHT THANKS TO THE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL
LIKELY ACCUMULATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING ALOFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. PRECIP
WILL START TO MIX WITH SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
BY AROUND 06Z...AND START MIXING IN THE CAPITAL REGION TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.

ULTIMATELY...THE DURATION/LENGTH OF THE CHANGEOVER WILL DEPEND ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM....WHICH IS STILL YET TO BE DETERMINED.
A PERIOD OF ICING DUE TO FZRA COULD BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS IF
COLD AIR IS ABLE TO HANG IN.  THE MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST A TRACK
VERY CLOSE TO THE ALY CWA...AND A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE WEST TO
EAST COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE ON P-TYPE...QPF AMOUNTS...AND
TEMPS.  BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...PRECIP WILL START TO CHANGE
FROM MIXED TO PLAIN RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA SEEING A PLAIN RAIN BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AMOUNT OF QPF ON
TUESDAY...AND THE PRECIP COULD BE LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY AT
TIMES. EAST OF THE STORM TRACK...TEMPS COULD RISE WELL INTO THE
40S...WHILE WEST OF THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. WITH THE STORM EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 990 HPA AND FEATURE A
STRONG LLJ...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME GUSTY WINDS...ESP
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ALL THESE HAZARDS IN OUR HWO STATEMENT.

AS THE STORM LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN
CANADA...IT WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY STRENGTH. WITH COLD AIR RUSHING
BEHIND THE STORM...ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS WITH THE BACKSIDE
PRECIP...BUT AGAIN...THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
STORM.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK WITH SOME PASSING NORTHERN
STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEMS AS WELL.


&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL TERMINALS. ASIDE FROM A
FEW PASSING LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TO THE WEST OF
THE REGION...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE SO
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WEST WINDS CONTINUE TO
BE AROUND 5-10 KTS FOR MOST SITES...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES
NEAR KPOU/KPSF. HOWEVER...APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW WINDS
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BE 5
KTS OR LESS BY LATE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BE S-SW AT AROUND 5 KTS. SKIES
WILL BE FAIRLY CLEAR TO START THE DAY...BUT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BY
THE LATE AFTN HOURS OR INTO THE EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN CIGS AT 4-8
KFT...WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.

AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR A ROGUE SNOW
SHOWER OR SNOW SQUALL BY LATER FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY LOWER FLYING CONDITIONS FROM THE
VFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE VFR INTO FRI
NIGHT WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AROUND 4 KFT...AND SW WINDS AROUND 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTON`S BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH BITTER COLD AIR IN PLACE...ICE COVERAGE ON RIVERS AND LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS EVENING...BUT THIS
WILL AMOUNT TO LITTLE OF HYDROLOGIC SIGNIFICANCE.

HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF PRECIPITATION THAT
MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT COULD OCCUR...AND MUCH OF
THIS COULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. IF THIS RAIN WERE TO
MATERIALIZE...IT COULD HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...ESP CONSIDERING THE GROUND WILL BE FULLY FROZEN BY THAT
TIME...ALLOWING MUCH OF THE PRECIP TO BE RUNOFF. DETAILS WILL
BECOME MORE CERTAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-064>066-083-084.
MA...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 120848
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
348 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ARCTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO SOUTHERN
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS OR
SQUALLS ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT TONIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN THE
COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE WINTER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH BITTERLY
COLD TEMPERATURES. A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
MONDAY...WITH A STORM SYSTEM BRINGING MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION
POTENTIALLY FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EST FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND TROF WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...THEN BE OVER OUR
REGION TONIGHT. SHARP ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS OUR
AREA AND USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. BACKING
FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BRING ABOUT FAVORABLE LAKE
EFFECT FLOW FROM LAKE ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
TODAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH OUR FORECAST AREA
FROM 15-00Z. THE LAKE EFFECT WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO ST
LAWRENCE COUNTY. THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
TODAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT
TIMES AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM. AREAS AFFECTED BY LAKE EFFECT SHOULD SEE ABOUT 3 TO 7
INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW...SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

TONIGHT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA...FROM
00 TO 12Z. A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL LEAD THE FRONT AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOWFALL TOTALS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SHUT DOWN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. VERY
HIGH SNOW RATIOS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AIR MASS
MOVING INTO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS VERMONT...WITH NEGATIVE TEENS IN NORTHERN
NEW YORK WHERE THE COLD AIR REACHES SOONER. BRISK WINDS AND THESE
COLD TEMPERATURES BRING ABOUT WIND CHILL CONCERNS. HAVE UPDATED
THE WATCH TO A WARNING. WIND CHILL VALUES DIP INTO THE NEGATIVE
20S ACROSS PARTS OF OUR AREA TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTHERN NEW YORK.
THIS IS JUST THE BEGINNING OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON MOVING
INTO OUR AREA BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EST THURSDAY...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
THE WAKE OF STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH MAXES OCCURRING IN THE MORNING IN THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NY...AND THE
POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD.
MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
AS DEPARTING SURFACE LOW MOVES NEWD AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
MID-WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE
WITH GUSTS 15-25KTS POSSIBLE. COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO -30C TO
-25C EARLY SUNDAY. THIS COLD FRIGID AIR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
AND WINDS SUBSIDE WHILE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE ALOFT. AIR
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO...RANGING FROM
NEGATIVE TEENS TO NEGATIVE 20S. SUNDAY WILL SEE MAX TEMPERATURES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

PRECIPITATION-WISE...SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WITH FROUDE NUMBERS SHOWING SLOW MOVING/BLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS FOR SATURDAY WITH A
DRYING TREND THEREAFTER. WITH LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPERATURES
STILL IN THE MID 30S, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STEAM CLOUDS DEVELOPING
IN COLDER AIR AND POSSIBLE TEA KETTLE TYPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EST THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT.
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP
MODERATE TEMPERATURES MONDAY...WITH MAXES REACHING THE 20S.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE FROM DIGGING 500MB TROUGH
THAT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHILE
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TRACK OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE THAT DEVELOPS,
EXPECT LOW TO BEGIN BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN FROM THE SOUTH ON
TUESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF CURRENTLY BRING SIGNIFICANT WARMING TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND RESULT IN ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO TRANSITION
TO RAIN LATE TUESDAY. BUT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, COLD
AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED. MULTIPLE VORTICES IN 500MB TROUGH MAY KEEP
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO COASTAL CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...TREND TOWARD VFR OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AND NW FLOW RELAXES GENERALLY AFTER 06Z.
BTV AND MPV CURRENTLY STILL HAVE MVFR CEILINGS. WILL BEGIN TO SEE
MVFR CEILINGS AND LOCALLY IFR VSBY AT SLK/MSS WITH -SHSN POSSIBLE
AFTER 17Z ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW FROM LAKE ONTARIO
AND FRINGE IMPACT FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS. NW WINDS BRIEFLY
GUSTY 15 TO 20 KTS...THEN GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THEN SHIFTING
TO THE S AND SW AROUND 10KTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. S WINDS MAY
BE A PROBLEM AT KBTV GROUND OPERATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
NIGHT WITH DRIFTING OR BLOWING SNOW BY 00Z SAT AND MAY BE GUSTING
OVER 30KTS UNTIL THE ARCTIC FRONT PASSES EARLY SAT A.M. LCL VLIFR
IN SNOW SQUALLS BRIEFLY POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT 02-05Z ACROSS NRN NY
AND 05-09Z ACROSS VT AS ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THRU...WITH VSBY
BRIEFLY LESS THAN 1/2 MILE AND A WIND SHIFT TO NW WITH GUSTS 20 TO
30 KTS. MODEST IMPACT TO AIRPORT GROUND OPERATIONS WITH DUSTING TO
2" SNOWFALL PSBL.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR AFTER 12Z
SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTN AND EVE. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY PRECIP WILL BE
BEGINNING AND SPREADING SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA. DEPENDING
ON PTYPE...WILL SEE SOME MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ029-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 120548
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1248 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL
TRACK EASTWARD WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...THEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE WEST. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ARCTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE
DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LOCALIZED
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...AND THEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST
AIR MASS OF THE WINTER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES. A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
MONDAY...WITH A STORM SYSTEM BRINGING MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION
POTENTIALLY FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 1226 AM EST FRIDAY...ADDITIONAL MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
SKY/T/TD/WINDS OVERNIGHT BASED OFF CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
LINGERING LIGHT SHSN/FLURRIES TO GENERALLY END OVERNIGHT LEAVING
CLR/PTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY MORNING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES
OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING COLDER THAN EARLIER FCST BY
SEVERAL DEGREES, BUT ARE QUITE VARIABLE DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER
AND WIND. THUS TOOK CURRENT 02Z READINGS AND LOWERED VALUES BY AN
ADDITIONAL 3-5 DEGREES OVERNIGHT PER LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS. ALSO
OPTED TO RAISE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WIND GUSTS CONSIDERABLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING ARCTIC
BOUNDARYWITH MODELS OFFERING A DEEPLY MIXED PBL AND A TIGHTENING
P-GRAD. GUSTS INTO THE 20-30 MPH RANGE LOOK REASONABLE, ESPECIALLY
IN THE BROADER VALLEYS. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

PRIOR DISCUSSION... COMPACT MID-LEVEL VORT EVIDENT IN IR AND VIS
IMAGERY ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL SHIFT EWD ALONG THE
INTL BORDER AND SHIFT EAST OF VT BY 06Z. LOOKING AT JUST A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AIDED
BY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (IN LOW-LEVEL CAA REGIME) AND WLY
850MB FLOW OF 15-20KTS PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE INTO THE ADIRONDACKS
AND NRN GREENS. ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR
LESS...MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS OF OROGRAPHIC ASCENT.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AS NARROW
SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FROM THE WEST AFTER 06Z...CRESTING
ACROSS VT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. CORE OF COLDEST 850MB TEMPS WILL BE
IN PLACE THIS EVENING...GENERALLY -24C TO -26C. SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND THIN LAYER OF SNOW COVER WILL AID IN RADIATIVE
COOLING...ESPECIALLY LATE WITH CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WIND.
LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND AROUND SPRINGFIELD VT...AND GENERALLY ZERO TO -10F ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT: SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER VORT DIGS ESEWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS ALLOWS SFC-850MB FLOW TO BACK AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. LOW-
LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FROM LAKE ONTARIO BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
INTO ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...LIKELY STARTING AROUND 14-15Z FRIDAY
PER BTV LOCAL WRF RUNS. PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GENERALLY
BE CONFINED TO ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HRS FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WITH
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND WEAK S-SW FLOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL BE BRIEFLY AUGMENTED BY LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE AS ARCTIC BNDRY SWEEPS INTO NRN NY BETWEEN
02-05Z...AND ACROSS VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD SEE POTENTIAL SNOW
SQUALLS ALONG THE BNDRY AS IT MOVES ACROSS ENTIRE CWA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW END BEHIND
ARCTIC BNDRY AS MEAN FLOW VEERS RAPIDLY FROM SW-NW.

WILL BE REPLACING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WITH A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY THIS AFTN FOR SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY 14Z FRIDAY
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY TO COVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY
3-6". WILL PROBABLY SEE A COUPLE OF COMMUNITIES IN EXCESS OF 6"
SNOWFALL AROUND FINE, NY...BUT ANTICIPATE THAT WILL BE ISOLD GIVEN
TRANSITIONAL NATURE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
BACKS AND THEN QUICKLY VEERS WITH FROPA. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE A
DUSTING TO 2" FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SNOW
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALL ACTIVITY. SNOW RATIOS GENERALLY 20:1
TO 25:1 GIVEN VERY COLD AIR MASS...AND NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS (ALSO CONSIDERING PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT TRAFFIC).

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY GENERALLY GENERALLY TEENS TO LOWER
20S. STRONG CAA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN TO 5 TO 10
BELOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...INCLUDING WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30 BELOW (SEE FORTHCOMING
SHORT-TERM FORECAST SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON DANGEROUSLY LOW
WIND CHILLS FOR THE WEEKEND). LOWS ACROSS VERMONT AND THE NY SIDE
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY ZERO TO +7F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /1 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EST THURSDAY...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
THE WAKE OF STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH MAXES OCCURRING IN THE MORNING IN THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NY...AND THE
POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD.
MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
AS DEPARTING SURFACE LOW MOVES NEWD AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
MID-WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE
WITH GUSTS 15-25KTS POSSIBLE. COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO -30C TO
-25C EARLY SUNDAY. THIS COLD FRIGID AIR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
AND WINDS SUBSIDE WHILE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE ALOFT. AIR
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO...RANGING FROM
NEGATIVE TEENS TO NEGATIVE 20S. SUNDAY WILL SEE MAX TEMPERATURES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

PRECIPITATION-WISE...SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WITH FROUDE NUMBERS SHOWING SLOW MOVING/BLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS FOR SATURDAY WITH A
DRYING TREND THEREAFTER. WITH LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPERATURES
STILL IN THE MID 30S, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STEAM CLOUDS DEVELOPING
IN COLDER AIR AND POSSIBLE TEA KETTLE TYPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EST THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT.
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP
MODERATE TEMPERATURES MONDAY...WITH MAXES REACHING THE 20S.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE FROM DIGGING 500MB TROUGH
THAT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHILE
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TRACK OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE THAT DEVELOPS,
EXPECT LOW TO BEGIN BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN FROM THE SOUTH ON
TUESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF CURRENTLY BRING SIGNIFICANT WARMING TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND RESULT IN ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO TRANSITION
TO RAIN LATE TUESDAY. BUT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, COLD
AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED. MULTIPLE VORTICES IN 500MB TROUGH MAY KEEP
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO COASTAL CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...TREND TOWARD VFR OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AND NW FLOW RELAXES GENERALLY AFTER 06Z.
BTV AND MPV CURRENTLY STILL HAVE MVFR CEILINGS. WILL BEGIN TO SEE
MVFR CEILINGS AND LOCALLY IFR VSBY AT SLK/MSS WITH -SHSN POSSIBLE
AFTER 17Z ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW FROM LAKE ONTARIO
AND FRINGE IMPACT FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS. NW WINDS BRIEFLY
GUSTY 15 TO 20 KTS...THEN GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THEN SHIFTING
TO THE S AND SW AROUND 10KTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. S WINDS MAY
BE A PROBLEM AT KBTV GROUND OPERATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
NIGHT WITH DRIFTING OR BLOWING SNOW BY 00Z SAT AND MAY BE GUSTING
OVER 30KTS UNTIL THE ARCTIC FRONT PASSES EARLY SAT A.M. LCL VLIFR
IN SNOW SQUALLS BRIEFLY POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT 02-05Z ACROSS NRN NY
AND 05-09Z ACROSS VT AS ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THRU...WITH VSBY
BRIEFLY LESS THAN 1/2 MILE AND A WIND SHIFT TO NW WITH GUSTS 20 TO
30 KTS. MODEST IMPACT TO AIRPORT GROUND OPERATIONS WITH DUSTING TO
2" SNOWFALL PSBL.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR AFTER 12Z
SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTN AND EVE. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY PRECIP WILL BE
BEGINNING AND SPREADING SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA. DEPENDING
ON PTYPE...WILL SEE SOME MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ029-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG/NEILES
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KALY 120543
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1243 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ENDING.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FRONT...WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EST...THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED
EAST NORTHEAST EXITING THE REGION. IN ITS WAKE UNDER WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW...A NARROW BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS STILL LINGER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS. THIS NARROW BAND WILL RETREAT WESTWARD
BACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY CLOSER TO THE GREAT
LAKES AS WE APPROACH 12Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL DEVELOP AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS.

WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO DIMINISH AS WE GO FURTHER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP RATHER
QUICKLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WERE
ADJUSTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION TO
TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE DROPPING TEMPERATURES AND NEAR CALM WINDS IN
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING
WILL BE FRIGID WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN VT AND
THE BERKSHIRES TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND LOWER TEENS ACROSS
THE REST OF THE REGION.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIND CHILL WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ALL AREAS...

FRIDAY...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...PROVIDING SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY INDUCE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO AT TIMES IN
THE MORNING...BEFORE THE FLOW BACKS FURTHER AND ALLOWS SNOW
SHOWERS TO FOCUS MAINLY NORTH OF THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD WARM
INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER/MID 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS. BEFORE THIS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THE COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AND ACTUAL
SNOWBANDS WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER/NW
HAMILTON COS BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
SNOWBAND WILL BE FAIRLY MIGRATORY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MERGES AND PUSHES IT
SOUTHWARD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVELS OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 28 FRIDAY
EVENING...BEFORE ANY SNOWBAND SHIFTS SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT. AT
THIS TIME...NO HEADLINES...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
ADVISORIES IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FURTHER FOR MODERATE OR
GREATER SNOWFALL AMTS ACROSS THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD FALL
QUICKLY BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS...EXCEPT FOR ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS BITTERLY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
DRIVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC
FRONT. SAT TEMPS MAY FALL THROUGH THE DAY...AFTER INITIAL MAXES OF
5-10 ABOVE ZERO IN VALLEYS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST INTO THE 30-45
MPH RANGE...OR EVEN HIGHER SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEN...MIN TEMPS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL WELL BELOW ZERO IN ALL AREAS...WITH -10
TO -20 LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AND
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. COMBINED WITH BRISK WINDS...EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES TO
FALL INTO THE -20 TO -35 RANGE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND -35 TO
-45 RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS SAT NT/SUN AM...COLDEST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT HAS BEEN AN
EXCEPTIONALLY WARM WINTER THUS FAR...THE IMPACTS OF THIS BITTER
COLD OUTBREAK WILL BE EVEN MORE DANGEROUS AND DOWNRIGHT LIFE
THREATENING. PLEASE REFER TO OUR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS/SPS/
AND/OR PNS/PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS/ FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
AND COLD WEATHER SAFETY TIPS DURING THIS EXTREME COLD OUTBREAK.
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY RECOVER SLIGHTLY TO SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...BUT WITH LESS WIND BY LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS ANY SNOW...SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD POOL
PASSING NEARBY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE BRUNT OF ANY MORE
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WEST OF OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A COLD START TO THE WEEK...BUT THEN A
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY
PCPN...AND WINDY CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IMPACTING
THE REGION...AS THE SFC ANTICYCLONE SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO CALM.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY
START TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO
10 BELOW...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS WHERE SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS ARE POSSIBLE...AND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ACROSS NW CT...THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE SRN TACONICS.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
WARM FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE
SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING.  SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY REACH LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
LATE IN THE DAY.  CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THESE AREAS.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMS WILL ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF AN INCH OR LESS.  HIGHS WILL STILL
BE BELOW NORMAL BY ABOUT 10 DEGS...AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR TO SCOUR OUT.  HIGHS FROM THE SUPERBLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS TO
AROUND 20F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...GOOD CONSENSUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
DETERMINISTIC...ENSEMBLE...AND WPC GUIDANCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT.  AN H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE TURNING NEGATIVELY
TITLED...AND SOME NRN STREAM ENERGY MAY PHASE WITH THE SRN STREAM OF
THE UPPER JET.  A MORE PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT WILL BE EXTENDING N/NE
OF THE SFC CYCLONE.  AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL
CONTINUE OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  POPS WERE KEPT IN THE
HIGH CHC/LIKELY CATEGORY MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.  THE
STRONG LIFT...AND VERTICAL THERMO PROFILES/CRITICAL PARTIAL
THICKNESSES FAVOR SNOW FOR THE PTYPE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF A FEW INCHES AT THIS
POINT. LOWS MAY START OUT IN THE TEENS AND L20S...AND SLOWLY RISE.

BY TUE MORNING...THE LATEST GEFS MSLP MEAN HAS A SFC CYCLONE OVER
THE CAROLINAS.  THE LATEST WPC DAY 5 HAS IT ON THE NC/SC BORDER.  IT
IS GOING TO TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE THE COLD AIR SCOURS OUT...MUCH OF
THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOWFALL...BUT A STRENGTHENING H850
LLJ OF 50-70 KTS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AND TRANSITION SNOW TO
MIXED PCPN/RAIN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE TUE. THE
SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES /+V-COMPONENT OF THE WIND/ INCREASE TO 1 TO
3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. PWATS ARE ABOVE NORMAL. THE QUESTION
REMAINS WHERE THE CYCLONE TRACKS.  THE LATEST ECMWF IS VERY
PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE H500 NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH CAPTURING THE
CYCLONE...AND ALLOWING IT TO TRACK WELL WEST OF THE REGION OVER W-
CNTRL NY. THIS WOULD BE A WARM SOLUTION WITH WET...AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. THE GFS/CAN GGEM ARE FURTHER EAST HAVING THE CYCLONE
TRACK EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY /12Z GFS/ OR EAST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY /12Z CAN GGEM AND 12Z GEFS MEAN/. THE TRACK WILL PLAY A
BIG ROLE ON THE PTYPE.  OUR FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AND WPC...WHICH ALLOWS FOR A TRANSITION TO RAIN
OVER MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE SRN DACKS.  SOME
SLEET OR FZRA MAY BE POSSIBLE TOO...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
ALY.  TOTAL QPF MAY EXCEED AN INCH OR MORE ON TUE.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE U30S TO L40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST...AND U20S TO M30S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...TRICKY FCST CONTINUES HINGING ON THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM.  THE PCPN COULD QUICKLY TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW TUE
NIGHT...IF THE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY.  SOME HVY WET
SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE.  OUR FCST REFLECTS A RAIN TO SNOW
TRANSITION...AS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT KICKS IN.  ADDITIONAL HVY QPF
IS POSSIBLE.  TOTAL QPF MAY BE IN THE INCH PLUS RANGE ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE FCST AREA.  OVERALL...WPC GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A 1-3 INCH
QPF EVENT IS POSSIBLE.  IF THE HVY RAINFALL MATERIALIZES...IT MAY
CAUSE FLOODING ON THE FROZEN  GROUND.  A MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IS
SHAPING UP MON NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK.  MID AND UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO WED.  LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO L30S NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND M30S TO AROUND 40F FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE
ONTARIO...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THU WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR MID-FEB /5-10 DEGS/. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO L20S /FEW SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS/...AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO L30S.

OVERALL...TEMPS WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE STRETCH WITH
PCPN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL TERMINALS. ASIDE FROM A
FEW PASSING LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TO THE WEST OF
THE REGION...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE SO
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WEST WINDS CONTINUE TO
BE AROUND 5-10 KTS FOR MOST SITES...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES
NEAR KPOU/KPSF. HOWEVER...APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW WINDS
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BE 5
KTS OR LESS BY LATE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BE S-SW AT AROUND 5 KTS. SKIES
WILL BE FAIRLY CLEAR TO START THE DAY...BUT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BY
THE LATE AFTN HOURS OR INTO THE EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN CIGS AT 4-8
KFT...WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.

AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR A ROGUE SNOW
SHOWER OR SNOW SQUALL BY LATER FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY LOWER FLYING CONDITONS FROM THE VFR
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE VFR INTO FRI NIGHT
WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AROUND 4 KFT...AND SW WINDS AROUND 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTON`S BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...SLEET.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OTHER THAN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY...LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. HOWEVER...AS A
BITTER COLD AIR MASS ENCOMPASSES THE REGION...ICE COVER ON
RIVERS/LAKES WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS
THIS WEEKEND.

THEN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-
     064>066-083-084.
MA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...KL/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 120543
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1243 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ENDING.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FRONT...WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EST...THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED
EAST NORTHEAST EXITING THE REGION. IN ITS WAKE UNDER WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW...A NARROW BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS STILL LINGER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS. THIS NARROW BAND WILL RETREAT WESTWARD
BACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY CLOSER TO THE GREAT
LAKES AS WE APPROACH 12Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL DEVELOP AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS.

WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO DIMINISH AS WE GO FURTHER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP RATHER
QUICKLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WERE
ADJUSTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION TO
TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE DROPPING TEMPERATURES AND NEAR CALM WINDS IN
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING
WILL BE FRIGID WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN VT AND
THE BERKSHIRES TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND LOWER TEENS ACROSS
THE REST OF THE REGION.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIND CHILL WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ALL AREAS...

FRIDAY...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...PROVIDING SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY INDUCE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO AT TIMES IN
THE MORNING...BEFORE THE FLOW BACKS FURTHER AND ALLOWS SNOW
SHOWERS TO FOCUS MAINLY NORTH OF THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD WARM
INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER/MID 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS. BEFORE THIS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THE COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AND ACTUAL
SNOWBANDS WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER/NW
HAMILTON COS BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
SNOWBAND WILL BE FAIRLY MIGRATORY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MERGES AND PUSHES IT
SOUTHWARD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVELS OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 28 FRIDAY
EVENING...BEFORE ANY SNOWBAND SHIFTS SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT. AT
THIS TIME...NO HEADLINES...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
ADVISORIES IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FURTHER FOR MODERATE OR
GREATER SNOWFALL AMTS ACROSS THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD FALL
QUICKLY BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS...EXCEPT FOR ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS BITTERLY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
DRIVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC
FRONT. SAT TEMPS MAY FALL THROUGH THE DAY...AFTER INITIAL MAXES OF
5-10 ABOVE ZERO IN VALLEYS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST INTO THE 30-45
MPH RANGE...OR EVEN HIGHER SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEN...MIN TEMPS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL WELL BELOW ZERO IN ALL AREAS...WITH -10
TO -20 LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AND
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. COMBINED WITH BRISK WINDS...EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES TO
FALL INTO THE -20 TO -35 RANGE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND -35 TO
-45 RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS SAT NT/SUN AM...COLDEST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT HAS BEEN AN
EXCEPTIONALLY WARM WINTER THUS FAR...THE IMPACTS OF THIS BITTER
COLD OUTBREAK WILL BE EVEN MORE DANGEROUS AND DOWNRIGHT LIFE
THREATENING. PLEASE REFER TO OUR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS/SPS/
AND/OR PNS/PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS/ FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
AND COLD WEATHER SAFETY TIPS DURING THIS EXTREME COLD OUTBREAK.
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY RECOVER SLIGHTLY TO SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...BUT WITH LESS WIND BY LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS ANY SNOW...SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD POOL
PASSING NEARBY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE BRUNT OF ANY MORE
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WEST OF OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A COLD START TO THE WEEK...BUT THEN A
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY
PCPN...AND WINDY CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IMPACTING
THE REGION...AS THE SFC ANTICYCLONE SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO CALM.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY
START TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO
10 BELOW...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS WHERE SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS ARE POSSIBLE...AND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ACROSS NW CT...THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE SRN TACONICS.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
WARM FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE
SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING.  SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY REACH LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
LATE IN THE DAY.  CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THESE AREAS.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMS WILL ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF AN INCH OR LESS.  HIGHS WILL STILL
BE BELOW NORMAL BY ABOUT 10 DEGS...AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR TO SCOUR OUT.  HIGHS FROM THE SUPERBLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS TO
AROUND 20F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...GOOD CONSENSUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
DETERMINISTIC...ENSEMBLE...AND WPC GUIDANCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT.  AN H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE TURNING NEGATIVELY
TITLED...AND SOME NRN STREAM ENERGY MAY PHASE WITH THE SRN STREAM OF
THE UPPER JET.  A MORE PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT WILL BE EXTENDING N/NE
OF THE SFC CYCLONE.  AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL
CONTINUE OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  POPS WERE KEPT IN THE
HIGH CHC/LIKELY CATEGORY MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.  THE
STRONG LIFT...AND VERTICAL THERMO PROFILES/CRITICAL PARTIAL
THICKNESSES FAVOR SNOW FOR THE PTYPE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF A FEW INCHES AT THIS
POINT. LOWS MAY START OUT IN THE TEENS AND L20S...AND SLOWLY RISE.

BY TUE MORNING...THE LATEST GEFS MSLP MEAN HAS A SFC CYCLONE OVER
THE CAROLINAS.  THE LATEST WPC DAY 5 HAS IT ON THE NC/SC BORDER.  IT
IS GOING TO TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE THE COLD AIR SCOURS OUT...MUCH OF
THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOWFALL...BUT A STRENGTHENING H850
LLJ OF 50-70 KTS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AND TRANSITION SNOW TO
MIXED PCPN/RAIN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE TUE. THE
SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES /+V-COMPONENT OF THE WIND/ INCREASE TO 1 TO
3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. PWATS ARE ABOVE NORMAL. THE QUESTION
REMAINS WHERE THE CYCLONE TRACKS.  THE LATEST ECMWF IS VERY
PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE H500 NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH CAPTURING THE
CYCLONE...AND ALLOWING IT TO TRACK WELL WEST OF THE REGION OVER W-
CNTRL NY. THIS WOULD BE A WARM SOLUTION WITH WET...AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. THE GFS/CAN GGEM ARE FURTHER EAST HAVING THE CYCLONE
TRACK EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY /12Z GFS/ OR EAST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY /12Z CAN GGEM AND 12Z GEFS MEAN/. THE TRACK WILL PLAY A
BIG ROLE ON THE PTYPE.  OUR FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AND WPC...WHICH ALLOWS FOR A TRANSITION TO RAIN
OVER MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE SRN DACKS.  SOME
SLEET OR FZRA MAY BE POSSIBLE TOO...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
ALY.  TOTAL QPF MAY EXCEED AN INCH OR MORE ON TUE.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE U30S TO L40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST...AND U20S TO M30S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...TRICKY FCST CONTINUES HINGING ON THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM.  THE PCPN COULD QUICKLY TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW TUE
NIGHT...IF THE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY.  SOME HVY WET
SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE.  OUR FCST REFLECTS A RAIN TO SNOW
TRANSITION...AS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT KICKS IN.  ADDITIONAL HVY QPF
IS POSSIBLE.  TOTAL QPF MAY BE IN THE INCH PLUS RANGE ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE FCST AREA.  OVERALL...WPC GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A 1-3 INCH
QPF EVENT IS POSSIBLE.  IF THE HVY RAINFALL MATERIALIZES...IT MAY
CAUSE FLOODING ON THE FROZEN  GROUND.  A MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IS
SHAPING UP MON NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK.  MID AND UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO WED.  LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO L30S NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND M30S TO AROUND 40F FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE
ONTARIO...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THU WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR MID-FEB /5-10 DEGS/. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO L20S /FEW SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS/...AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO L30S.

OVERALL...TEMPS WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE STRETCH WITH
PCPN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL TERMINALS. ASIDE FROM A
FEW PASSING LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TO THE WEST OF
THE REGION...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE SO
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WEST WINDS CONTINUE TO
BE AROUND 5-10 KTS FOR MOST SITES...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES
NEAR KPOU/KPSF. HOWEVER...APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW WINDS
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BE 5
KTS OR LESS BY LATE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BE S-SW AT AROUND 5 KTS. SKIES
WILL BE FAIRLY CLEAR TO START THE DAY...BUT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BY
THE LATE AFTN HOURS OR INTO THE EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN CIGS AT 4-8
KFT...WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.

AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR A ROGUE SNOW
SHOWER OR SNOW SQUALL BY LATER FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY LOWER FLYING CONDITONS FROM THE VFR
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE VFR INTO FRI NIGHT
WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AROUND 4 KFT...AND SW WINDS AROUND 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTON`S BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...SLEET.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OTHER THAN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY...LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. HOWEVER...AS A
BITTER COLD AIR MASS ENCOMPASSES THE REGION...ICE COVER ON
RIVERS/LAKES WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS
THIS WEEKEND.

THEN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-
     064>066-083-084.
MA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...KL/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 120543
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1243 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ENDING.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FRONT...WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EST...THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED
EAST NORTHEAST EXITING THE REGION. IN ITS WAKE UNDER WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW...A NARROW BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS STILL LINGER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS. THIS NARROW BAND WILL RETREAT WESTWARD
BACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY CLOSER TO THE GREAT
LAKES AS WE APPROACH 12Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL DEVELOP AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS.

WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO DIMINISH AS WE GO FURTHER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP RATHER
QUICKLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WERE
ADJUSTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION TO
TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE DROPPING TEMPERATURES AND NEAR CALM WINDS IN
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING
WILL BE FRIGID WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN VT AND
THE BERKSHIRES TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND LOWER TEENS ACROSS
THE REST OF THE REGION.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIND CHILL WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ALL AREAS...

FRIDAY...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...PROVIDING SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY INDUCE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO AT TIMES IN
THE MORNING...BEFORE THE FLOW BACKS FURTHER AND ALLOWS SNOW
SHOWERS TO FOCUS MAINLY NORTH OF THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD WARM
INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER/MID 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS. BEFORE THIS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THE COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AND ACTUAL
SNOWBANDS WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER/NW
HAMILTON COS BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
SNOWBAND WILL BE FAIRLY MIGRATORY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MERGES AND PUSHES IT
SOUTHWARD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVELS OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 28 FRIDAY
EVENING...BEFORE ANY SNOWBAND SHIFTS SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT. AT
THIS TIME...NO HEADLINES...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
ADVISORIES IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FURTHER FOR MODERATE OR
GREATER SNOWFALL AMTS ACROSS THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD FALL
QUICKLY BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS...EXCEPT FOR ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS BITTERLY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
DRIVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC
FRONT. SAT TEMPS MAY FALL THROUGH THE DAY...AFTER INITIAL MAXES OF
5-10 ABOVE ZERO IN VALLEYS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST INTO THE 30-45
MPH RANGE...OR EVEN HIGHER SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEN...MIN TEMPS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL WELL BELOW ZERO IN ALL AREAS...WITH -10
TO -20 LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AND
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. COMBINED WITH BRISK WINDS...EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES TO
FALL INTO THE -20 TO -35 RANGE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND -35 TO
-45 RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS SAT NT/SUN AM...COLDEST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT HAS BEEN AN
EXCEPTIONALLY WARM WINTER THUS FAR...THE IMPACTS OF THIS BITTER
COLD OUTBREAK WILL BE EVEN MORE DANGEROUS AND DOWNRIGHT LIFE
THREATENING. PLEASE REFER TO OUR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS/SPS/
AND/OR PNS/PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS/ FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
AND COLD WEATHER SAFETY TIPS DURING THIS EXTREME COLD OUTBREAK.
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY RECOVER SLIGHTLY TO SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...BUT WITH LESS WIND BY LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS ANY SNOW...SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD POOL
PASSING NEARBY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE BRUNT OF ANY MORE
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WEST OF OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A COLD START TO THE WEEK...BUT THEN A
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY
PCPN...AND WINDY CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IMPACTING
THE REGION...AS THE SFC ANTICYCLONE SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO CALM.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY
START TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO
10 BELOW...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS WHERE SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS ARE POSSIBLE...AND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ACROSS NW CT...THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE SRN TACONICS.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
WARM FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE
SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING.  SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY REACH LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
LATE IN THE DAY.  CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THESE AREAS.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMS WILL ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF AN INCH OR LESS.  HIGHS WILL STILL
BE BELOW NORMAL BY ABOUT 10 DEGS...AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR TO SCOUR OUT.  HIGHS FROM THE SUPERBLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS TO
AROUND 20F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...GOOD CONSENSUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
DETERMINISTIC...ENSEMBLE...AND WPC GUIDANCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT.  AN H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE TURNING NEGATIVELY
TITLED...AND SOME NRN STREAM ENERGY MAY PHASE WITH THE SRN STREAM OF
THE UPPER JET.  A MORE PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT WILL BE EXTENDING N/NE
OF THE SFC CYCLONE.  AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL
CONTINUE OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  POPS WERE KEPT IN THE
HIGH CHC/LIKELY CATEGORY MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.  THE
STRONG LIFT...AND VERTICAL THERMO PROFILES/CRITICAL PARTIAL
THICKNESSES FAVOR SNOW FOR THE PTYPE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF A FEW INCHES AT THIS
POINT. LOWS MAY START OUT IN THE TEENS AND L20S...AND SLOWLY RISE.

BY TUE MORNING...THE LATEST GEFS MSLP MEAN HAS A SFC CYCLONE OVER
THE CAROLINAS.  THE LATEST WPC DAY 5 HAS IT ON THE NC/SC BORDER.  IT
IS GOING TO TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE THE COLD AIR SCOURS OUT...MUCH OF
THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOWFALL...BUT A STRENGTHENING H850
LLJ OF 50-70 KTS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AND TRANSITION SNOW TO
MIXED PCPN/RAIN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE TUE. THE
SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES /+V-COMPONENT OF THE WIND/ INCREASE TO 1 TO
3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. PWATS ARE ABOVE NORMAL. THE QUESTION
REMAINS WHERE THE CYCLONE TRACKS.  THE LATEST ECMWF IS VERY
PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE H500 NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH CAPTURING THE
CYCLONE...AND ALLOWING IT TO TRACK WELL WEST OF THE REGION OVER W-
CNTRL NY. THIS WOULD BE A WARM SOLUTION WITH WET...AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. THE GFS/CAN GGEM ARE FURTHER EAST HAVING THE CYCLONE
TRACK EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY /12Z GFS/ OR EAST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY /12Z CAN GGEM AND 12Z GEFS MEAN/. THE TRACK WILL PLAY A
BIG ROLE ON THE PTYPE.  OUR FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AND WPC...WHICH ALLOWS FOR A TRANSITION TO RAIN
OVER MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE SRN DACKS.  SOME
SLEET OR FZRA MAY BE POSSIBLE TOO...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
ALY.  TOTAL QPF MAY EXCEED AN INCH OR MORE ON TUE.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE U30S TO L40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST...AND U20S TO M30S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...TRICKY FCST CONTINUES HINGING ON THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM.  THE PCPN COULD QUICKLY TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW TUE
NIGHT...IF THE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY.  SOME HVY WET
SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE.  OUR FCST REFLECTS A RAIN TO SNOW
TRANSITION...AS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT KICKS IN.  ADDITIONAL HVY QPF
IS POSSIBLE.  TOTAL QPF MAY BE IN THE INCH PLUS RANGE ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE FCST AREA.  OVERALL...WPC GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A 1-3 INCH
QPF EVENT IS POSSIBLE.  IF THE HVY RAINFALL MATERIALIZES...IT MAY
CAUSE FLOODING ON THE FROZEN  GROUND.  A MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IS
SHAPING UP MON NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK.  MID AND UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO WED.  LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO L30S NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND M30S TO AROUND 40F FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE
ONTARIO...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THU WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR MID-FEB /5-10 DEGS/. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO L20S /FEW SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS/...AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO L30S.

OVERALL...TEMPS WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE STRETCH WITH
PCPN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL TERMINALS. ASIDE FROM A
FEW PASSING LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TO THE WEST OF
THE REGION...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE SO
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WEST WINDS CONTINUE TO
BE AROUND 5-10 KTS FOR MOST SITES...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES
NEAR KPOU/KPSF. HOWEVER...APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW WINDS
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BE 5
KTS OR LESS BY LATE TONIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BE S-SW AT AROUND 5 KTS. SKIES
WILL BE FAIRLY CLEAR TO START THE DAY...BUT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BY
THE LATE AFTN HOURS OR INTO THE EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN CIGS AT 4-8
KFT...WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.

AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR A ROGUE SNOW
SHOWER OR SNOW SQUALL BY LATER FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY LOWER FLYING CONDITONS FROM THE VFR
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE VFR INTO FRI NIGHT
WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AROUND 4 KFT...AND SW WINDS AROUND 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTON`S BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...SLEET.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OTHER THAN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY...LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. HOWEVER...AS A
BITTER COLD AIR MASS ENCOMPASSES THE REGION...ICE COVER ON
RIVERS/LAKES WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS
THIS WEEKEND.

THEN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-
     064>066-083-084.
MA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...KL/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 120245
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
945 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ENDING.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FRONT...WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM EST...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AXIS HAS MOVED
DOWNSTREAM. A WEAK SFC ANTICYCLONE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION...AND OH VALLEY. A NARROW...WEAKENING BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES CONTINUES OVER THE SCHOHARIE
VALLEY...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THE CNTRL
TACONICS. LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED OF A HALF AN
INCH OR LESS. THIS ACTIVITY IN THE W/NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN.

THE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BECOME MUCH LIGHTER ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE NARROW RIDGE BUILDING IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER
AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONT FOR LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
EXCEPT OVER THE WRN DACKS...WRN MOHAWK VALLEY AND NRN CATSKILLS.

TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH SOME SUBZERO MINS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...AND
POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AS THE WINDS MAY
BRIEFLY TREND TO CALM.

BEFORE WINDS DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD DIP INTO THE -5 TO -15 RANGE...WITH THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIND CHILL WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ALL AREAS...

FRIDAY...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...PROVIDING SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY INDUCE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO AT TIMES IN
THE MORNING...BEFORE THE FLOW BACKS FURTHER AND ALLOWS SNOW
SHOWERS TO FOCUS MAINLY NORTH OF THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD WARM
INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER/MID 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS. BEFORE THIS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THE COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AND ACTUAL
SNOWBANDS WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER/NW
HAMILTON COS BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
SNOWBAND WILL BE FAIRLY MIGRATORY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MERGES AND PUSHES IT
SOUTHWARD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVELS OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 28 FRIDAY
EVENING...BEFORE ANY SNOWBAND SHIFTS SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT. AT
THIS TIME...NO HEADLINES...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
ADVISORIES IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FURTHER FOR MODERATE OR
GREATER SNOWFALL AMTS ACROSS THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD FALL
QUICKLY BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS...EXCEPT FOR ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS BITTERLY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
DRIVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC
FRONT. SAT TEMPS MAY FALL THROUGH THE DAY...AFTER INITIAL MAXES OF
5-10 ABOVE ZERO IN VALLEYS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST INTO THE 30-45
MPH RANGE...OR EVEN HIGHER SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEN...MIN TEMPS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL WELL BELOW ZERO IN ALL AREAS...WITH -10
TO -20 LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AND
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. COMBINED WITH BRISK WINDS...EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES TO
FALL INTO THE -20 TO -35 RANGE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND -35 TO
-45 RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS SAT NT/SUN AM...COLDEST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT HAS BEEN AN
EXCEPTIONALLY WARM WINTER THUS FAR...THE IMPACTS OF THIS BITTER
COLD OUTBREAK WILL BE EVEN MORE DANGEROUS AND DOWNRIGHT LIFE
THREATENING. PLEASE REFER TO OUR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS/SPS/
AND/OR PNS/PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS/ FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
AND COLD WEATHER SAFETY TIPS DURING THIS EXTREME COLD OUTBREAK.
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY RECOVER SLIGHTLY TO SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...BUT WITH LESS WIND BY LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS ANY SNOW...SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD POOL
PASSING NEARBY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE BRUNT OF ANY MORE
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WEST OF OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A COLD START TO THE WEEK...BUT THEN A
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY
PCPN...AND WINDY CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IMPACTING
THE REGION...AS THE SFC ANTICYCLONE SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO CALM.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY
START TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO
10 BELOW...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS WHERE SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS ARE POSSIBLE...AND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ACROSS NW CT...THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE SRN TACONICS.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
WARM FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE
SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING.  SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY REACH LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
LATE IN THE DAY.  CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THESE AREAS.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMS WILL ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF AN INCH OR LESS.  HIGHS WILL STILL
BE BELOW NORMAL BY ABOUT 10 DEGS...AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR TO SCOUR OUT.  HIGHS FROM THE SUPERBLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS TO
AROUND 20F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...GOOD CONSENSUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
DETERMINISTIC...ENSEMBLE...AND WPC GUIDANCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT.  AN H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE TURNING NEGATIVELY
TITLED...AND SOME NRN STREAM ENERGY MAY PHASE WITH THE SRN STREAM OF
THE UPPER JET.  A MORE PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT WILL BE EXTENDING N/NE
OF THE SFC CYCLONE.  AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL
CONTINUE OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  POPS WERE KEPT IN THE
HIGH CHC/LIKELY CATEGORY MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.  THE
STRONG LIFT...AND VERTICAL THERMO PROFILES/CRITICAL PARTIAL
THICKNESSES FAVOR SNOW FOR THE PTYPE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF A FEW INCHES AT THIS
POINT. LOWS MAY START OUT IN THE TEENS AND L20S...AND SLOWLY RISE.

BY TUE MORNING...THE LATEST GEFS MSLP MEAN HAS A SFC CYCLONE OVER
THE CAROLINAS.  THE LATEST WPC DAY 5 HAS IT ON THE NC/SC BORDER.  IT
IS GOING TO TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE THE COLD AIR SCOURS OUT...MUCH OF
THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOWFALL...BUT A STRENGTHENING H850
LLJ OF 50-70 KTS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AND TRANSITION SNOW TO
MIXED PCPN/RAIN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE TUE. THE
SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES /+V-COMPONENT OF THE WIND/ INCREASE TO 1 TO
3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. PWATS ARE ABOVE NORMAL. THE QUESTION
REMAINS WHERE THE CYCLONE TRACKS.  THE LATEST ECMWF IS VERY
PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE H500 NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH CAPTURING THE
CYCLONE...AND ALLOWING IT TO TRACK WELL WEST OF THE REGION OVER W-
CNTRL NY. THIS WOULD BE A WARM SOLUTION WITH WET...AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. THE GFS/CAN GGEM ARE FURTHER EAST HAVING THE CYCLONE
TRACK EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY /12Z GFS/ OR EAST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY /12Z CAN GGEM AND 12Z GEFS MEAN/. THE TRACK WILL PLAY A
BIG ROLE ON THE PTYPE.  OUR FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AND WPC...WHICH ALLOWS FOR A TRANSITION TO RAIN
OVER MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE SRN DACKS.  SOME
SLEET OR FZRA MAY BE POSSIBLE TOO...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
ALY.  TOTAL QPF MAY EXCEED AN INCH OR MORE ON TUE.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE U30S TO L40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST...AND U20S TO M30S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...TRICKY FCST CONTINUES HINGING ON THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM.  THE PCPN COULD QUICKLY TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW TUE
NIGHT...IF THE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY.  SOME HVY WET
SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE.  OUR FCST REFLECTS A RAIN TO SNOW
TRANSITION...AS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT KICKS IN.  ADDITIONAL HVY QPF
IS POSSIBLE.  TOTAL QPF MAY BE IN THE INCH PLUS RANGE ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE FCST AREA.  OVERALL...WPC GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A 1-3 INCH
QPF EVENT IS POSSIBLE.  IF THE HVY RAINFALL MATERIALIZES...IT MAY
CAUSE FLOODING ON THE FROZEN  GROUND.  A MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IS
SHAPING UP MON NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK.  MID AND UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO WED.  LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO L30S NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND M30S TO AROUND 40F FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE
ONTARIO...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THU WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR MID-FEB /5-10 DEGS/. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO L20S /FEW SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS/...AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO L30S.

OVERALL...TEMPS WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE STRETCH WITH
PCPN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. IN THE W TO NW FLOW ALOFT A CLIPPER
LOW AND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS...AS THE SKIES WILL
CLEAR OVERNIGHT BRIEFLY AS A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. AFTER SCT-BKN STRATO CUMULUS 3.5-5 KFT AGL AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS DECREASE TOWARDS 05Z-07Z. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE IN THE LATE MORNING. SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS MAY REACH KGFL
BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS AROUND 4-5 KFT AGL. A VCSH GROUP WAS
USED FOR NOW.

THE WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST 10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-32KTS
EARLY THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY DECREASING TO AROUND 7 KTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10
KTS IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTON`S BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OTHER THAN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY...LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. HOWEVER...AS A
BITTER COLD AIR MASS ENCOMPASSES THE REGION...ICE COVER ON
RIVERS/LAKES WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS
THIS WEEKEND.

THEN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-
     064>066-083-084.
MA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/11




000
FXUS61 KBTV 120227
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
927 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL
TRACK EASTWARD WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST...SKIES WILL
BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. IT WILL BE COLD WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT
VALLEYS...AND GENERALLY ZERO TO 10 BELOW ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND ARCTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SHOWERS OR SQUALLS ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE WINTER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MONDAY...WITH A STORM SYSTEM
BRINGING MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 927 PM EST THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
SKY/T/TD/WINDS OVERNIGHT BASED OFF CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
LINGERING LIGHT SHSN/FLURRIES TO GENERALLY END OVERNIGHT LEAVING
CLR/PTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY MORNING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES
OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING COLDER THAN EARLIER FCST BY
SEVERAL DEGREES, BUT ARE QUITE VARIABLE DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER
AND WIND. THUS TOOK CURRENT 02Z READINGS AND LOWERED VALUES BY AN
ADDITIONAL 3-5 DEGREES OVERNIGHT PER LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS. ALSO
OPTED TO RAISE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WIND GUSTS CONSIDERABLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING ARCTIC BOUDARY
WITH MODELS OFFERING A DEEPLY MIXED PBL AND A TIGHTENING P-GRAD.
GUSTS INTO THE 20-30 MPH RANGE LOOK REASONABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
BROADER VALLEYS. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
COMPACT MID-LEVEL VORT EVIDENT IN IR AND VIS IMAGERY ACROSS THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL SHIFT EWD ALONG THE INTL BORDER AND SHIFT
EAST OF VT BY 06Z. LOOKING AT JUST A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THIS FEATURE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AIDED BY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES (IN LOW-LEVEL CAA REGIME) AND WLY 850MB FLOW OF 15-20KTS
PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREENS. ANY
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR LESS...MAINLY CONFINED TO
AREAS OF OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT
WITH CLEARING SKIES AS NARROW SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FROM THE
WEST AFTER 06Z...CRESTING ACROSS VT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. CORE OF
COLDEST 850MB TEMPS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS EVENING...GENERALLY -24C
TO -26C. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THIN LAYER OF SNOW COVER
WILL AID IN RADIATIVE COOLING...ESPECIALLY LATE WITH CLEARING AND
DIMINISHING WIND. LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE FOR
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND AROUND SPRINGFIELD VT...AND GENERALLY
ZERO TO -10F ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT: SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER VORT DIGS ESEWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS ALLOWS
SFC-850MB FLOW TO BACK AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. LOW-LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES FROM LAKE ONTARIO BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS INTO
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...LIKELY STARTING AROUND 14-15Z FRIDAY PER
BTV LOCAL WRF RUNS. PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE
CONFINED TO ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WITH VARIABLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND WEAK S-SW FLOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE
BRIEFLY AUGMENTED BY LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE AS ARCTIC BNDRY SWEEPS INTO NRN NY BETWEEN
02-05Z...AND ACROSS VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD SEE POTENTIAL SNOW
SQUALLS ALONG THE BNDRY AS IT MOVES ACROSS ENTIRE CWA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW END BEHIND
ARCTIC BNDRY AS MEAN FLOW VEERS RAPIDLY FROM SW-NW.

WILL BE REPLACING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WITH A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY THIS AFTN FOR SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY 14Z FRIDAY
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY TO COVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY
3-6". WILL PROBABLY SEE A COUPLE OF COMMUNITIES IN EXCESS OF 6"
SNOWFALL AROUND FINE, NY...BUT ANTICIPATE THAT WILL BE ISOLD GIVEN
TRANSITIONAL NATURE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
BACKS AND THEN QUICKLY VEERS WITH FROPA. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE A
DUSTING TO 2" FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SNOW
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALL ACTIVITY. SNOW RATIOS GENERALLY 20:1
TO 25:1 GIVEN VERY COLD AIR MASS...AND NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS (ALSO CONSIDERING PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT TRAFFIC).

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY GENERALLY GENERALLY TEENS TO LOWER
20S. STRONG CAA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN TO 5 TO 10
BELOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...INCLUDING WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30 BELOW (SEE FORTHCOMING
SHORT-TERM FORECAST SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON DANGEROUSLY LOW
WIND CHILLS FOR THE WEEKEND). LOWS ACROSS VERMONT AND THE NY SIDE
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY ZERO TO +7F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EST THURSDAY...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
THE WAKE OF STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH MAXES OCCURRING IN THE MORNING IN THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NY...AND THE
POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD.
MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
AS DEPARTING SURFACE LOW MOVES NEWD AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
MID-WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE
WITH GUSTS 15-25KTS POSSIBLE. COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO -30C TO
-25C EARLY SUNDAY. THIS COLD FRIGID AIR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
AND WINDS SUBSIDE WHILE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE ALOFT. AIR
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO...RANGING FROM
NEGATIVE TEENS TO NEGATIVE 20S. SUNDAY WILL SEE MAX TEMPERATURES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

PRECIPITATION-WISE...SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WITH FROUDE NUMBERS SHOWING SLOW MOVING/BLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS FOR SATURDAY WITH A
DRYING TREND THEREAFTER. WITH LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPERATURES
STILL IN THE MID 30S, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STEAM CLOUDS DEVELOPING
IN COLDER AIR AND POSSIBLE TEA KETTLE TYPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EST THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT.
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP
MODERATE TEMPERATURES MONDAY...WITH MAXES REACHING THE 20S.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE FROM DIGGING 500MB TROUGH
THAT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHILE
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TRACK OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE THAT DEVELOPS,
EXPECT LOW TO BEGIN BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN FROM THE SOUTH ON
TUESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF CURRENTLY BRING SIGNIFICANT WARMING TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND RESULT IN ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO TRANSITION
TO RAIN LATE TUESDAY. BUT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, COLD
AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED. MULTIPLE VORTICES IN 500MB TROUGH MAY KEEP
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO COASTAL CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TREND TOWARD VFR OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AND NW FLOW RELAXES GENERALLY AFTER 06Z.

AT BTV...NW FLOW ACROSS THE 37 DEGREE WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN
MAY BRING FLURRIES OR EVEN A SNOW SHOWER FOR A WHILE TONIGHT. FOR
NOW JUST MENTIONING AS VCTY SNOW SHOWERS BUT ITS ENTIRELY POSSIBLETHAT
CIGS GO MVFR AND VSBY IFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE 04Z. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION ON RUNWAYS.

OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS (2-3 KFT) GENERALLY LIMITED TO SLK OTHERWISE
THE TREND TO VFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

WILL BEGIN TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND LOCALLY IFR VSBY AT SLK/MSS
WITH -SHSN POSSIBLE AFTER 17Z ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW
FROM LAKE ONTARIO AND FRINGE IMPACT FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS.

NW WINDS BRIEFLY GUSTY 15 TO 20KTS THRU EARLY EVENING...THEN
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING THEN SHIFTING
TO THE S AND SW AROUND 10KTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

S WINDS MAYBE A PROBLEM AT KBTV GROUND OPERATIONS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH DRIFTING OR BLOWING SNOW BY 00Z SAT AND
MAY BE GUSTING OVER 30KTS UNTIL THE ARCTIC FRONT PASSES EARLY SAT
A.M.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LCL VLIFR IN SNOW SQUALLS
BRIEFLY POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT 02-05Z ACROSS NRN NY AND 05-09Z
ACROSS VT AS ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THRU...WITH VSBY BRIEFLY LESS THAN
1/2 MILE AND A WIND SHIFT TO NW WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS. MODEST
IMPACT TO AIRPORT GROUND OPERATIONS WITH DUSTING TO 2" SNOWFALL
PSBL. GENERALLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW
WIND GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTN AND EVE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ029-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS/SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 120227
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
927 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL
TRACK EASTWARD WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST...SKIES WILL
BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. IT WILL BE COLD WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT
VALLEYS...AND GENERALLY ZERO TO 10 BELOW ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND ARCTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SHOWERS OR SQUALLS ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE WINTER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MONDAY...WITH A STORM SYSTEM
BRINGING MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 927 PM EST THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
SKY/T/TD/WINDS OVERNIGHT BASED OFF CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
LINGERING LIGHT SHSN/FLURRIES TO GENERALLY END OVERNIGHT LEAVING
CLR/PTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY MORNING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES
OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING COLDER THAN EARLIER FCST BY
SEVERAL DEGREES, BUT ARE QUITE VARIABLE DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER
AND WIND. THUS TOOK CURRENT 02Z READINGS AND LOWERED VALUES BY AN
ADDITIONAL 3-5 DEGREES OVERNIGHT PER LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS. ALSO
OPTED TO RAISE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WIND GUSTS CONSIDERABLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING ARCTIC BOUDARY
WITH MODELS OFFERING A DEEPLY MIXED PBL AND A TIGHTENING P-GRAD.
GUSTS INTO THE 20-30 MPH RANGE LOOK REASONABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
BROADER VALLEYS. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
COMPACT MID-LEVEL VORT EVIDENT IN IR AND VIS IMAGERY ACROSS THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL SHIFT EWD ALONG THE INTL BORDER AND SHIFT
EAST OF VT BY 06Z. LOOKING AT JUST A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THIS FEATURE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AIDED BY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES (IN LOW-LEVEL CAA REGIME) AND WLY 850MB FLOW OF 15-20KTS
PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREENS. ANY
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR LESS...MAINLY CONFINED TO
AREAS OF OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT
WITH CLEARING SKIES AS NARROW SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FROM THE
WEST AFTER 06Z...CRESTING ACROSS VT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. CORE OF
COLDEST 850MB TEMPS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS EVENING...GENERALLY -24C
TO -26C. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THIN LAYER OF SNOW COVER
WILL AID IN RADIATIVE COOLING...ESPECIALLY LATE WITH CLEARING AND
DIMINISHING WIND. LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE FOR
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND AROUND SPRINGFIELD VT...AND GENERALLY
ZERO TO -10F ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT: SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER VORT DIGS ESEWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS ALLOWS
SFC-850MB FLOW TO BACK AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. LOW-LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES FROM LAKE ONTARIO BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS INTO
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...LIKELY STARTING AROUND 14-15Z FRIDAY PER
BTV LOCAL WRF RUNS. PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE
CONFINED TO ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WITH VARIABLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND WEAK S-SW FLOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE
BRIEFLY AUGMENTED BY LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE AS ARCTIC BNDRY SWEEPS INTO NRN NY BETWEEN
02-05Z...AND ACROSS VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD SEE POTENTIAL SNOW
SQUALLS ALONG THE BNDRY AS IT MOVES ACROSS ENTIRE CWA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW END BEHIND
ARCTIC BNDRY AS MEAN FLOW VEERS RAPIDLY FROM SW-NW.

WILL BE REPLACING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WITH A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY THIS AFTN FOR SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY 14Z FRIDAY
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY TO COVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY
3-6". WILL PROBABLY SEE A COUPLE OF COMMUNITIES IN EXCESS OF 6"
SNOWFALL AROUND FINE, NY...BUT ANTICIPATE THAT WILL BE ISOLD GIVEN
TRANSITIONAL NATURE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
BACKS AND THEN QUICKLY VEERS WITH FROPA. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE A
DUSTING TO 2" FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SNOW
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALL ACTIVITY. SNOW RATIOS GENERALLY 20:1
TO 25:1 GIVEN VERY COLD AIR MASS...AND NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS (ALSO CONSIDERING PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT TRAFFIC).

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY GENERALLY GENERALLY TEENS TO LOWER
20S. STRONG CAA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN TO 5 TO 10
BELOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...INCLUDING WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30 BELOW (SEE FORTHCOMING
SHORT-TERM FORECAST SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON DANGEROUSLY LOW
WIND CHILLS FOR THE WEEKEND). LOWS ACROSS VERMONT AND THE NY SIDE
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY ZERO TO +7F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EST THURSDAY...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
THE WAKE OF STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH MAXES OCCURRING IN THE MORNING IN THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NY...AND THE
POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD.
MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
AS DEPARTING SURFACE LOW MOVES NEWD AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
MID-WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE
WITH GUSTS 15-25KTS POSSIBLE. COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO -30C TO
-25C EARLY SUNDAY. THIS COLD FRIGID AIR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
AND WINDS SUBSIDE WHILE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE ALOFT. AIR
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO...RANGING FROM
NEGATIVE TEENS TO NEGATIVE 20S. SUNDAY WILL SEE MAX TEMPERATURES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

PRECIPITATION-WISE...SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WITH FROUDE NUMBERS SHOWING SLOW MOVING/BLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS FOR SATURDAY WITH A
DRYING TREND THEREAFTER. WITH LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPERATURES
STILL IN THE MID 30S, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STEAM CLOUDS DEVELOPING
IN COLDER AIR AND POSSIBLE TEA KETTLE TYPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EST THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT.
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP
MODERATE TEMPERATURES MONDAY...WITH MAXES REACHING THE 20S.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE FROM DIGGING 500MB TROUGH
THAT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHILE
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TRACK OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE THAT DEVELOPS,
EXPECT LOW TO BEGIN BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN FROM THE SOUTH ON
TUESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF CURRENTLY BRING SIGNIFICANT WARMING TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND RESULT IN ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO TRANSITION
TO RAIN LATE TUESDAY. BUT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, COLD
AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED. MULTIPLE VORTICES IN 500MB TROUGH MAY KEEP
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO COASTAL CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TREND TOWARD VFR OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AND NW FLOW RELAXES GENERALLY AFTER 06Z.

AT BTV...NW FLOW ACROSS THE 37 DEGREE WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN
MAY BRING FLURRIES OR EVEN A SNOW SHOWER FOR A WHILE TONIGHT. FOR
NOW JUST MENTIONING AS VCTY SNOW SHOWERS BUT ITS ENTIRELY POSSIBLETHAT
CIGS GO MVFR AND VSBY IFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE 04Z. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION ON RUNWAYS.

OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS (2-3 KFT) GENERALLY LIMITED TO SLK OTHERWISE
THE TREND TO VFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

WILL BEGIN TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND LOCALLY IFR VSBY AT SLK/MSS
WITH -SHSN POSSIBLE AFTER 17Z ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW
FROM LAKE ONTARIO AND FRINGE IMPACT FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS.

NW WINDS BRIEFLY GUSTY 15 TO 20KTS THRU EARLY EVENING...THEN
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING THEN SHIFTING
TO THE S AND SW AROUND 10KTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

S WINDS MAYBE A PROBLEM AT KBTV GROUND OPERATIONS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH DRIFTING OR BLOWING SNOW BY 00Z SAT AND
MAY BE GUSTING OVER 30KTS UNTIL THE ARCTIC FRONT PASSES EARLY SAT
A.M.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LCL VLIFR IN SNOW SQUALLS
BRIEFLY POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT 02-05Z ACROSS NRN NY AND 05-09Z
ACROSS VT AS ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THRU...WITH VSBY BRIEFLY LESS THAN
1/2 MILE AND A WIND SHIFT TO NW WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS. MODEST
IMPACT TO AIRPORT GROUND OPERATIONS WITH DUSTING TO 2" SNOWFALL
PSBL. GENERALLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW
WIND GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTN AND EVE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ029-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS/SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 120227
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
927 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL
TRACK EASTWARD WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST...SKIES WILL
BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. IT WILL BE COLD WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT
VALLEYS...AND GENERALLY ZERO TO 10 BELOW ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND ARCTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SHOWERS OR SQUALLS ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE WINTER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MONDAY...WITH A STORM SYSTEM
BRINGING MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 927 PM EST THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
SKY/T/TD/WINDS OVERNIGHT BASED OFF CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
LINGERING LIGHT SHSN/FLURRIES TO GENERALLY END OVERNIGHT LEAVING
CLR/PTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY MORNING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES
OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING COLDER THAN EARLIER FCST BY
SEVERAL DEGREES, BUT ARE QUITE VARIABLE DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER
AND WIND. THUS TOOK CURRENT 02Z READINGS AND LOWERED VALUES BY AN
ADDITIONAL 3-5 DEGREES OVERNIGHT PER LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS. ALSO
OPTED TO RAISE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WIND GUSTS CONSIDERABLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING ARCTIC BOUDARY
WITH MODELS OFFERING A DEEPLY MIXED PBL AND A TIGHTENING P-GRAD.
GUSTS INTO THE 20-30 MPH RANGE LOOK REASONABLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
BROADER VALLEYS. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
COMPACT MID-LEVEL VORT EVIDENT IN IR AND VIS IMAGERY ACROSS THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL SHIFT EWD ALONG THE INTL BORDER AND SHIFT
EAST OF VT BY 06Z. LOOKING AT JUST A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THIS FEATURE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AIDED BY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES (IN LOW-LEVEL CAA REGIME) AND WLY 850MB FLOW OF 15-20KTS
PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREENS. ANY
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR LESS...MAINLY CONFINED TO
AREAS OF OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT
WITH CLEARING SKIES AS NARROW SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FROM THE
WEST AFTER 06Z...CRESTING ACROSS VT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. CORE OF
COLDEST 850MB TEMPS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS EVENING...GENERALLY -24C
TO -26C. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THIN LAYER OF SNOW COVER
WILL AID IN RADIATIVE COOLING...ESPECIALLY LATE WITH CLEARING AND
DIMINISHING WIND. LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE FOR
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND AROUND SPRINGFIELD VT...AND GENERALLY
ZERO TO -10F ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT: SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER VORT DIGS ESEWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS ALLOWS
SFC-850MB FLOW TO BACK AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. LOW-LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES FROM LAKE ONTARIO BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS INTO
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...LIKELY STARTING AROUND 14-15Z FRIDAY PER
BTV LOCAL WRF RUNS. PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE
CONFINED TO ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WITH VARIABLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND WEAK S-SW FLOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE
BRIEFLY AUGMENTED BY LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE AS ARCTIC BNDRY SWEEPS INTO NRN NY BETWEEN
02-05Z...AND ACROSS VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD SEE POTENTIAL SNOW
SQUALLS ALONG THE BNDRY AS IT MOVES ACROSS ENTIRE CWA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW END BEHIND
ARCTIC BNDRY AS MEAN FLOW VEERS RAPIDLY FROM SW-NW.

WILL BE REPLACING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WITH A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY THIS AFTN FOR SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY 14Z FRIDAY
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY TO COVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY
3-6". WILL PROBABLY SEE A COUPLE OF COMMUNITIES IN EXCESS OF 6"
SNOWFALL AROUND FINE, NY...BUT ANTICIPATE THAT WILL BE ISOLD GIVEN
TRANSITIONAL NATURE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
BACKS AND THEN QUICKLY VEERS WITH FROPA. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE A
DUSTING TO 2" FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SNOW
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALL ACTIVITY. SNOW RATIOS GENERALLY 20:1
TO 25:1 GIVEN VERY COLD AIR MASS...AND NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS (ALSO CONSIDERING PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT TRAFFIC).

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY GENERALLY GENERALLY TEENS TO LOWER
20S. STRONG CAA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN TO 5 TO 10
BELOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...INCLUDING WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30 BELOW (SEE FORTHCOMING
SHORT-TERM FORECAST SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON DANGEROUSLY LOW
WIND CHILLS FOR THE WEEKEND). LOWS ACROSS VERMONT AND THE NY SIDE
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY ZERO TO +7F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EST THURSDAY...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
THE WAKE OF STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH MAXES OCCURRING IN THE MORNING IN THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NY...AND THE
POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD.
MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
AS DEPARTING SURFACE LOW MOVES NEWD AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
MID-WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE
WITH GUSTS 15-25KTS POSSIBLE. COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO -30C TO
-25C EARLY SUNDAY. THIS COLD FRIGID AIR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
AND WINDS SUBSIDE WHILE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE ALOFT. AIR
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO...RANGING FROM
NEGATIVE TEENS TO NEGATIVE 20S. SUNDAY WILL SEE MAX TEMPERATURES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

PRECIPITATION-WISE...SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WITH FROUDE NUMBERS SHOWING SLOW MOVING/BLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS FOR SATURDAY WITH A
DRYING TREND THEREAFTER. WITH LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPERATURES
STILL IN THE MID 30S, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STEAM CLOUDS DEVELOPING
IN COLDER AIR AND POSSIBLE TEA KETTLE TYPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EST THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT.
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP
MODERATE TEMPERATURES MONDAY...WITH MAXES REACHING THE 20S.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE FROM DIGGING 500MB TROUGH
THAT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHILE
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TRACK OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE THAT DEVELOPS,
EXPECT LOW TO BEGIN BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN FROM THE SOUTH ON
TUESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF CURRENTLY BRING SIGNIFICANT WARMING TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND RESULT IN ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO TRANSITION
TO RAIN LATE TUESDAY. BUT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, COLD
AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED. MULTIPLE VORTICES IN 500MB TROUGH MAY KEEP
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO COASTAL CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TREND TOWARD VFR OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AND NW FLOW RELAXES GENERALLY AFTER 06Z.

AT BTV...NW FLOW ACROSS THE 37 DEGREE WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN
MAY BRING FLURRIES OR EVEN A SNOW SHOWER FOR A WHILE TONIGHT. FOR
NOW JUST MENTIONING AS VCTY SNOW SHOWERS BUT ITS ENTIRELY POSSIBLETHAT
CIGS GO MVFR AND VSBY IFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE 04Z. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION ON RUNWAYS.

OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS (2-3 KFT) GENERALLY LIMITED TO SLK OTHERWISE
THE TREND TO VFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

WILL BEGIN TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND LOCALLY IFR VSBY AT SLK/MSS
WITH -SHSN POSSIBLE AFTER 17Z ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW
FROM LAKE ONTARIO AND FRINGE IMPACT FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS.

NW WINDS BRIEFLY GUSTY 15 TO 20KTS THRU EARLY EVENING...THEN
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING THEN SHIFTING
TO THE S AND SW AROUND 10KTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

S WINDS MAYBE A PROBLEM AT KBTV GROUND OPERATIONS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH DRIFTING OR BLOWING SNOW BY 00Z SAT AND
MAY BE GUSTING OVER 30KTS UNTIL THE ARCTIC FRONT PASSES EARLY SAT
A.M.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LCL VLIFR IN SNOW SQUALLS
BRIEFLY POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT 02-05Z ACROSS NRN NY AND 05-09Z
ACROSS VT AS ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THRU...WITH VSBY BRIEFLY LESS THAN
1/2 MILE AND A WIND SHIFT TO NW WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS. MODEST
IMPACT TO AIRPORT GROUND OPERATIONS WITH DUSTING TO 2" SNOWFALL
PSBL. GENERALLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW
WIND GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTN AND EVE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ029-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS/SISSON



000
FXUS61 KALY 120016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
716 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES ENDING THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EST...A SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION. NOW
THAT THE SUN HAS SET...CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE DECREASING IN
AREAL COVERAGE...ESP IN VALLEY AREAS...WHILE PERSISTING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY/EASTERN CATSKILLS AND FAR WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN MA. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS HAVE MAINLY SHIFTED
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE HERKIMER CO...SO HAVE ALLOWED THE LES
ADVISORY TO END FOR HERKIMER CO.

ALSO...DEEP MIXING HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME WIND GUSTS TO REACH AROUND
40 MPH...ESP WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES. THESE GUSTS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND 9 PM...BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING.
EVENTUALLY...AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION...WINDS SHOULD BECOME MUCH LIGHTER ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH AN ADDITIONAL
1-2 INCHES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SCHOHARIE/SOUTHWEST ALBANY CO...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A COATING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH POSSIBLE IN SOME VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY.

LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...EXCEPT
FOR LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WHERE SOME
FLURRIES COULD ALSO REMAIN.

TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH SOME SUBZERO MINS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...AND
POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AS THE WIND MAY
BRIEFLY TREND TO CALM.

BEFORE WINDS DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD DIP INTO THE -5 TO -15 RANGE...WITH THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
     WIND CHILL WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ALL AREAS...

FRIDAY...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...PROVIDING SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY INDUCE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO AT TIMES IN
THE MORNING...BEFORE THE FLOW BACKS FURTHER AND ALLOWS SNOW
SHOWERS TO FOCUS MAINLY NORTH OF THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD WARM
INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER/MID 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS. BEFORE THIS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THE COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AND ACTUAL
SNOWBANDS WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER/NW
HAMILTON COS BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
SNOWBAND WILL BE FAIRLY MIGRATORY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MERGES AND PUSHES IT
SOUTHWARD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVELS OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 28 FRIDAY
EVENING...BEFORE ANY SNOWBAND SHIFTS SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT. AT
THIS TIME...NO HEADLINES...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
ADVISORIES IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FURTHER FOR MODERATE OR
GREATER SNOWFALL AMTS ACROSS THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD FALL
QUICKLY BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS...EXCEPT FOR ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS BITTERLY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
DRIVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC
FRONT. SAT TEMPS MAY FALL THROUGH THE DAY...AFTER INITIAL MAXES OF
5-10 ABOVE ZERO IN VALLEYS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST INTO THE 30-45
MPH RANGE...OR EVEN HIGHER SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEN...MIN TEMPS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL WELL BELOW ZERO IN ALL AREAS...WITH -10
TO -20 LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AND
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. COMBINED WITH BRISK WINDS...EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES TO
FALL INTO THE -20 TO -35 RANGE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND -35 TO
-45 RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS SAT NT/SUN AM...COLDEST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT HAS BEEN AN
EXCEPTIONALLY WARM WINTER THUS FAR...THE IMPACTS OF THIS BITTER
COLD OUTBREAK WILL BE EVEN MORE DANGEROUS AND DOWNRIGHT LIFE
THREATENING. PLEASE REFER TO OUR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS/SPS/
AND/OR PNS/PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS/ FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
AND COLD WEATHER SAFETY TIPS DURING THIS EXTREME COLD OUTBREAK.
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY RECOVER SLIGHTLY TO SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...BUT WITH LESS WIND BY LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS ANY SNOW...SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD POOL
PASSING NEARBY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE BRUNT OF ANY MORE
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WEST OF OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A COLD START TO THE WEEK...BUT THEN A
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY
PCPN...AND WINDY CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IMPACTING
THE REGION...AS THE SFC ANTICYCLONE SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO CALM.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY
START TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO
10 BELOW...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS WHERE SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS ARE POSSIBLE...AND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ACROSS NW CT...THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE SRN TACONICS.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
WARM FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE
SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING.  SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY REACH LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
LATE IN THE DAY.  CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THESE AREAS.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMS WILL ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF AN INCH OR LESS.  HIGHS WILL STILL
BE BELOW NORMAL BY ABOUT 10 DEGS...AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR TO SCOUR OUT.  HIGHS FROM THE SUPERBLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS TO
AROUND 20F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...GOOD CONSENSUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
DETERMINISTIC...ENSEMBLE...AND WPC GUIDANCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT.  AN H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE TURNING NEGATIVELY
TITLED...AND SOME NRN STREAM ENERGY MAY PHASE WITH THE SRN STREAM OF
THE UPPER JET.  A MORE PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT WILL BE EXTENDING N/NE
OF THE SFC CYCLONE.  AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL
CONTINUE OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  POPS WERE KEPT IN THE
HIGH CHC/LIKELY CATEGORY MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.  THE
STRONG LIFT...AND VERTICAL THERMO PROFILES/CRITICAL PARTIAL
THICKNESSES FAVOR SNOW FOR THE PTYPE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF A FEW INCHES AT THIS
POINT. LOWS MAY START OUT IN THE TEENS AND L20S...AND SLOWLY RISE.

BY TUE MORNING...THE LATEST GEFS MSLP MEAN HAS A SFC CYCLONE OVER
THE CAROLINAS.  THE LATEST WPC DAY 5 HAS IT ON THE NC/SC BORDER.  IT
IS GOING TO TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE THE COLD AIR SCOURS OUT...MUCH OF
THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOWFALL...BUT A STRENGTHENING H850
LLJ OF 50-70 KTS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AND TRANSITION SNOW TO
MIXED PCPN/RAIN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE TUE. THE
SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES /+V-COMPONENT OF THE WIND/ INCREASE TO 1 TO
3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. PWATS ARE ABOVE NORMAL. THE QUESTION
REMAINS WHERE THE CYCLONE TRACKS.  THE LATEST ECMWF IS VERY
PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE H500 NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH CAPTURING THE
CYCLONE...AND ALLOWING IT TO TRACK WELL WEST OF THE REGION OVER W-
CNTRL NY. THIS WOULD BE A WARM SOLUTION WITH WET...AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. THE GFS/CAN GGEM ARE FURTHER EAST HAVING THE CYCLONE
TRACK EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY /12Z GFS/ OR EAST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY /12Z CAN GGEM AND 12Z GEFS MEAN/. THE TRACK WILL PLAY A
BIG ROLE ON THE PTYPE.  OUR FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AND WPC...WHICH ALLOWS FOR A TRANSITION TO RAIN
OVER MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE SRN DACKS.  SOME
SLEET OR FZRA MAY BE POSSIBLE TOO...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
ALY.  TOTAL QPF MAY EXCEED AN INCH OR MORE ON TUE.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE U30S TO L40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST...AND U20S TO M30S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...TRICKY FCST CONTINUES HINGING ON THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM.  THE PCPN COULD QUICKLY TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW TUE
NIGHT...IF THE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY.  SOME HVY WET
SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE.  OUR FCST REFLECTS A RAIN TO SNOW
TRANSITION...AS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT KICKS IN.  ADDITIONAL HVY QPF
IS POSSIBLE.  TOTAL QPF MAY BE IN THE INCH PLUS RANGE ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE FCST AREA.  OVERALL...WPC GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A 1-3 INCH
QPF EVENT IS POSSIBLE.  IF THE HVY RAINFALL MATERIALIZES...IT MAY
CAUSE FLOODING ON THE FROZEN  GROUND.  A MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IS
SHAPING UP MON NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK.  MID AND UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO WED.  LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO L30S NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND M30S TO AROUND 40F FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE
ONTARIO...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THU WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR MID-FEB /5-10 DEGS/. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO L20S /FEW SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS/...AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO L30S.

OVERALL...TEMPS WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE STRETCH WITH
PCPN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. IN THE W TO NW FLOW ALOFT A CLIPPER
LOW AND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS...AS THE SKIES WILL
CLEAR OVERNIGHT BRIEFLY AS A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. AFTER SCT-BKN STRATO CUMULUS 3.5-5 KFT AGL AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS DECREASE TOWARDS 05Z-07Z. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE IN THE LATE MORNING. SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS MAY REACH KGFL
BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS AROUND 4-5 KFT AGL. A VCSH GROUP WAS
USED FOR NOW.

THE WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST 10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-32KTS
EARLY THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY DECREASING TO AROUND 7 KTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10
KTS IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTON`S BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OTHER THAN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY...LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. HOWEVER...AS A
BITTER COLD AIR MASS ENCOMPASSES THE REGION...ICE COVER ON
RIVERS/LAKES WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS
THIS WEEKEND.

THEN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-
     064>066-083-084.
MA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/11
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 120016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
716 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES ENDING THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EST...A SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION. NOW
THAT THE SUN HAS SET...CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE DECREASING IN
AREAL COVERAGE...ESP IN VALLEY AREAS...WHILE PERSISTING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY/EASTERN CATSKILLS AND FAR WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN MA. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS HAVE MAINLY SHIFTED
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE HERKIMER CO...SO HAVE ALLOWED THE LES
ADVISORY TO END FOR HERKIMER CO.

ALSO...DEEP MIXING HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME WIND GUSTS TO REACH AROUND
40 MPH...ESP WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES. THESE GUSTS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND 9 PM...BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING.
EVENTUALLY...AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION...WINDS SHOULD BECOME MUCH LIGHTER ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH AN ADDITIONAL
1-2 INCHES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SCHOHARIE/SOUTHWEST ALBANY CO...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A COATING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH POSSIBLE IN SOME VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY.

LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...EXCEPT
FOR LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WHERE SOME
FLURRIES COULD ALSO REMAIN.

TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH SOME SUBZERO MINS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...AND
POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AS THE WIND MAY
BRIEFLY TREND TO CALM.

BEFORE WINDS DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD DIP INTO THE -5 TO -15 RANGE...WITH THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
     WIND CHILL WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ALL AREAS...

FRIDAY...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...PROVIDING SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY INDUCE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO AT TIMES IN
THE MORNING...BEFORE THE FLOW BACKS FURTHER AND ALLOWS SNOW
SHOWERS TO FOCUS MAINLY NORTH OF THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD WARM
INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER/MID 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS. BEFORE THIS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THE COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AND ACTUAL
SNOWBANDS WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER/NW
HAMILTON COS BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
SNOWBAND WILL BE FAIRLY MIGRATORY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MERGES AND PUSHES IT
SOUTHWARD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVELS OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 28 FRIDAY
EVENING...BEFORE ANY SNOWBAND SHIFTS SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT. AT
THIS TIME...NO HEADLINES...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
ADVISORIES IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FURTHER FOR MODERATE OR
GREATER SNOWFALL AMTS ACROSS THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD FALL
QUICKLY BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS...EXCEPT FOR ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS BITTERLY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
DRIVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC
FRONT. SAT TEMPS MAY FALL THROUGH THE DAY...AFTER INITIAL MAXES OF
5-10 ABOVE ZERO IN VALLEYS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST INTO THE 30-45
MPH RANGE...OR EVEN HIGHER SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEN...MIN TEMPS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL WELL BELOW ZERO IN ALL AREAS...WITH -10
TO -20 LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AND
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. COMBINED WITH BRISK WINDS...EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES TO
FALL INTO THE -20 TO -35 RANGE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND -35 TO
-45 RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS SAT NT/SUN AM...COLDEST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT HAS BEEN AN
EXCEPTIONALLY WARM WINTER THUS FAR...THE IMPACTS OF THIS BITTER
COLD OUTBREAK WILL BE EVEN MORE DANGEROUS AND DOWNRIGHT LIFE
THREATENING. PLEASE REFER TO OUR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS/SPS/
AND/OR PNS/PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS/ FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
AND COLD WEATHER SAFETY TIPS DURING THIS EXTREME COLD OUTBREAK.
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY RECOVER SLIGHTLY TO SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...BUT WITH LESS WIND BY LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS ANY SNOW...SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD POOL
PASSING NEARBY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE BRUNT OF ANY MORE
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WEST OF OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A COLD START TO THE WEEK...BUT THEN A
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY
PCPN...AND WINDY CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IMPACTING
THE REGION...AS THE SFC ANTICYCLONE SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO CALM.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY
START TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO
10 BELOW...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS WHERE SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS ARE POSSIBLE...AND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ACROSS NW CT...THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE SRN TACONICS.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
WARM FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE
SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING.  SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY REACH LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
LATE IN THE DAY.  CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THESE AREAS.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMS WILL ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF AN INCH OR LESS.  HIGHS WILL STILL
BE BELOW NORMAL BY ABOUT 10 DEGS...AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR TO SCOUR OUT.  HIGHS FROM THE SUPERBLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS TO
AROUND 20F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...GOOD CONSENSUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
DETERMINISTIC...ENSEMBLE...AND WPC GUIDANCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT.  AN H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE TURNING NEGATIVELY
TITLED...AND SOME NRN STREAM ENERGY MAY PHASE WITH THE SRN STREAM OF
THE UPPER JET.  A MORE PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT WILL BE EXTENDING N/NE
OF THE SFC CYCLONE.  AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL
CONTINUE OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  POPS WERE KEPT IN THE
HIGH CHC/LIKELY CATEGORY MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.  THE
STRONG LIFT...AND VERTICAL THERMO PROFILES/CRITICAL PARTIAL
THICKNESSES FAVOR SNOW FOR THE PTYPE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF A FEW INCHES AT THIS
POINT. LOWS MAY START OUT IN THE TEENS AND L20S...AND SLOWLY RISE.

BY TUE MORNING...THE LATEST GEFS MSLP MEAN HAS A SFC CYCLONE OVER
THE CAROLINAS.  THE LATEST WPC DAY 5 HAS IT ON THE NC/SC BORDER.  IT
IS GOING TO TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE THE COLD AIR SCOURS OUT...MUCH OF
THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOWFALL...BUT A STRENGTHENING H850
LLJ OF 50-70 KTS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AND TRANSITION SNOW TO
MIXED PCPN/RAIN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE TUE. THE
SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES /+V-COMPONENT OF THE WIND/ INCREASE TO 1 TO
3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. PWATS ARE ABOVE NORMAL. THE QUESTION
REMAINS WHERE THE CYCLONE TRACKS.  THE LATEST ECMWF IS VERY
PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE H500 NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH CAPTURING THE
CYCLONE...AND ALLOWING IT TO TRACK WELL WEST OF THE REGION OVER W-
CNTRL NY. THIS WOULD BE A WARM SOLUTION WITH WET...AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. THE GFS/CAN GGEM ARE FURTHER EAST HAVING THE CYCLONE
TRACK EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY /12Z GFS/ OR EAST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY /12Z CAN GGEM AND 12Z GEFS MEAN/. THE TRACK WILL PLAY A
BIG ROLE ON THE PTYPE.  OUR FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AND WPC...WHICH ALLOWS FOR A TRANSITION TO RAIN
OVER MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE SRN DACKS.  SOME
SLEET OR FZRA MAY BE POSSIBLE TOO...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
ALY.  TOTAL QPF MAY EXCEED AN INCH OR MORE ON TUE.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE U30S TO L40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST...AND U20S TO M30S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...TRICKY FCST CONTINUES HINGING ON THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM.  THE PCPN COULD QUICKLY TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW TUE
NIGHT...IF THE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY.  SOME HVY WET
SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE.  OUR FCST REFLECTS A RAIN TO SNOW
TRANSITION...AS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT KICKS IN.  ADDITIONAL HVY QPF
IS POSSIBLE.  TOTAL QPF MAY BE IN THE INCH PLUS RANGE ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE FCST AREA.  OVERALL...WPC GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A 1-3 INCH
QPF EVENT IS POSSIBLE.  IF THE HVY RAINFALL MATERIALIZES...IT MAY
CAUSE FLOODING ON THE FROZEN  GROUND.  A MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IS
SHAPING UP MON NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK.  MID AND UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO WED.  LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO L30S NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND M30S TO AROUND 40F FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE
ONTARIO...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THU WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR MID-FEB /5-10 DEGS/. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO L20S /FEW SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS/...AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO L30S.

OVERALL...TEMPS WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE STRETCH WITH
PCPN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. IN THE W TO NW FLOW ALOFT A CLIPPER
LOW AND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS...AS THE SKIES WILL
CLEAR OVERNIGHT BRIEFLY AS A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. AFTER SCT-BKN STRATO CUMULUS 3.5-5 KFT AGL AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS DECREASE TOWARDS 05Z-07Z. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE IN THE LATE MORNING. SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS MAY REACH KGFL
BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS AROUND 4-5 KFT AGL. A VCSH GROUP WAS
USED FOR NOW.

THE WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST 10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-32KTS
EARLY THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY DECREASING TO AROUND 7 KTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10
KTS IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTON`S BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OTHER THAN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY...LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. HOWEVER...AS A
BITTER COLD AIR MASS ENCOMPASSES THE REGION...ICE COVER ON
RIVERS/LAKES WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS
THIS WEEKEND.

THEN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-
     064>066-083-084.
MA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/11
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 120016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
716 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES ENDING THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EST...A SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION. NOW
THAT THE SUN HAS SET...CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE DECREASING IN
AREAL COVERAGE...ESP IN VALLEY AREAS...WHILE PERSISTING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY/EASTERN CATSKILLS AND FAR WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN MA. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS HAVE MAINLY SHIFTED
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE HERKIMER CO...SO HAVE ALLOWED THE LES
ADVISORY TO END FOR HERKIMER CO.

ALSO...DEEP MIXING HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME WIND GUSTS TO REACH AROUND
40 MPH...ESP WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES. THESE GUSTS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND 9 PM...BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING.
EVENTUALLY...AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION...WINDS SHOULD BECOME MUCH LIGHTER ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH AN ADDITIONAL
1-2 INCHES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SCHOHARIE/SOUTHWEST ALBANY CO...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A COATING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH POSSIBLE IN SOME VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY.

LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...EXCEPT
FOR LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WHERE SOME
FLURRIES COULD ALSO REMAIN.

TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH SOME SUBZERO MINS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...AND
POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AS THE WIND MAY
BRIEFLY TREND TO CALM.

BEFORE WINDS DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD DIP INTO THE -5 TO -15 RANGE...WITH THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
     WIND CHILL WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ALL AREAS...

FRIDAY...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...PROVIDING SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY INDUCE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO AT TIMES IN
THE MORNING...BEFORE THE FLOW BACKS FURTHER AND ALLOWS SNOW
SHOWERS TO FOCUS MAINLY NORTH OF THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD WARM
INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER/MID 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS. BEFORE THIS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THE COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AND ACTUAL
SNOWBANDS WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER/NW
HAMILTON COS BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
SNOWBAND WILL BE FAIRLY MIGRATORY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MERGES AND PUSHES IT
SOUTHWARD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVELS OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 28 FRIDAY
EVENING...BEFORE ANY SNOWBAND SHIFTS SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT. AT
THIS TIME...NO HEADLINES...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
ADVISORIES IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FURTHER FOR MODERATE OR
GREATER SNOWFALL AMTS ACROSS THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD FALL
QUICKLY BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS...EXCEPT FOR ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS BITTERLY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
DRIVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC
FRONT. SAT TEMPS MAY FALL THROUGH THE DAY...AFTER INITIAL MAXES OF
5-10 ABOVE ZERO IN VALLEYS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST INTO THE 30-45
MPH RANGE...OR EVEN HIGHER SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEN...MIN TEMPS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL WELL BELOW ZERO IN ALL AREAS...WITH -10
TO -20 LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AND
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. COMBINED WITH BRISK WINDS...EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES TO
FALL INTO THE -20 TO -35 RANGE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND -35 TO
-45 RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS SAT NT/SUN AM...COLDEST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT HAS BEEN AN
EXCEPTIONALLY WARM WINTER THUS FAR...THE IMPACTS OF THIS BITTER
COLD OUTBREAK WILL BE EVEN MORE DANGEROUS AND DOWNRIGHT LIFE
THREATENING. PLEASE REFER TO OUR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS/SPS/
AND/OR PNS/PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS/ FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
AND COLD WEATHER SAFETY TIPS DURING THIS EXTREME COLD OUTBREAK.
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY RECOVER SLIGHTLY TO SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...BUT WITH LESS WIND BY LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS ANY SNOW...SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD POOL
PASSING NEARBY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE BRUNT OF ANY MORE
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WEST OF OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A COLD START TO THE WEEK...BUT THEN A
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY
PCPN...AND WINDY CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IMPACTING
THE REGION...AS THE SFC ANTICYCLONE SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO CALM.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY
START TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO
10 BELOW...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS WHERE SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS ARE POSSIBLE...AND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ACROSS NW CT...THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE SRN TACONICS.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
WARM FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE
SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING.  SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY REACH LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
LATE IN THE DAY.  CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THESE AREAS.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMS WILL ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF AN INCH OR LESS.  HIGHS WILL STILL
BE BELOW NORMAL BY ABOUT 10 DEGS...AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR TO SCOUR OUT.  HIGHS FROM THE SUPERBLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS TO
AROUND 20F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...GOOD CONSENSUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
DETERMINISTIC...ENSEMBLE...AND WPC GUIDANCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT.  AN H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE TURNING NEGATIVELY
TITLED...AND SOME NRN STREAM ENERGY MAY PHASE WITH THE SRN STREAM OF
THE UPPER JET.  A MORE PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT WILL BE EXTENDING N/NE
OF THE SFC CYCLONE.  AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL
CONTINUE OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  POPS WERE KEPT IN THE
HIGH CHC/LIKELY CATEGORY MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.  THE
STRONG LIFT...AND VERTICAL THERMO PROFILES/CRITICAL PARTIAL
THICKNESSES FAVOR SNOW FOR THE PTYPE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF A FEW INCHES AT THIS
POINT. LOWS MAY START OUT IN THE TEENS AND L20S...AND SLOWLY RISE.

BY TUE MORNING...THE LATEST GEFS MSLP MEAN HAS A SFC CYCLONE OVER
THE CAROLINAS.  THE LATEST WPC DAY 5 HAS IT ON THE NC/SC BORDER.  IT
IS GOING TO TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE THE COLD AIR SCOURS OUT...MUCH OF
THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOWFALL...BUT A STRENGTHENING H850
LLJ OF 50-70 KTS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AND TRANSITION SNOW TO
MIXED PCPN/RAIN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE TUE. THE
SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES /+V-COMPONENT OF THE WIND/ INCREASE TO 1 TO
3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. PWATS ARE ABOVE NORMAL. THE QUESTION
REMAINS WHERE THE CYCLONE TRACKS.  THE LATEST ECMWF IS VERY
PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE H500 NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH CAPTURING THE
CYCLONE...AND ALLOWING IT TO TRACK WELL WEST OF THE REGION OVER W-
CNTRL NY. THIS WOULD BE A WARM SOLUTION WITH WET...AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. THE GFS/CAN GGEM ARE FURTHER EAST HAVING THE CYCLONE
TRACK EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY /12Z GFS/ OR EAST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY /12Z CAN GGEM AND 12Z GEFS MEAN/. THE TRACK WILL PLAY A
BIG ROLE ON THE PTYPE.  OUR FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AND WPC...WHICH ALLOWS FOR A TRANSITION TO RAIN
OVER MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE SRN DACKS.  SOME
SLEET OR FZRA MAY BE POSSIBLE TOO...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
ALY.  TOTAL QPF MAY EXCEED AN INCH OR MORE ON TUE.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE U30S TO L40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST...AND U20S TO M30S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...TRICKY FCST CONTINUES HINGING ON THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM.  THE PCPN COULD QUICKLY TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW TUE
NIGHT...IF THE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY.  SOME HVY WET
SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE.  OUR FCST REFLECTS A RAIN TO SNOW
TRANSITION...AS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT KICKS IN.  ADDITIONAL HVY QPF
IS POSSIBLE.  TOTAL QPF MAY BE IN THE INCH PLUS RANGE ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE FCST AREA.  OVERALL...WPC GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A 1-3 INCH
QPF EVENT IS POSSIBLE.  IF THE HVY RAINFALL MATERIALIZES...IT MAY
CAUSE FLOODING ON THE FROZEN  GROUND.  A MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IS
SHAPING UP MON NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK.  MID AND UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO WED.  LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO L30S NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND M30S TO AROUND 40F FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE
ONTARIO...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THU WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR MID-FEB /5-10 DEGS/. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO L20S /FEW SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS/...AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO L30S.

OVERALL...TEMPS WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE STRETCH WITH
PCPN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. IN THE W TO NW FLOW ALOFT A CLIPPER
LOW AND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS...AS THE SKIES WILL
CLEAR OVERNIGHT BRIEFLY AS A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. AFTER SCT-BKN STRATO CUMULUS 3.5-5 KFT AGL AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS DECREASE TOWARDS 05Z-07Z. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE IN THE LATE MORNING. SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS MAY REACH KGFL
BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS AROUND 4-5 KFT AGL. A VCSH GROUP WAS
USED FOR NOW.

THE WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST 10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-32KTS
EARLY THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY DECREASING TO AROUND 7 KTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10
KTS IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTON`S BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OTHER THAN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY...LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. HOWEVER...AS A
BITTER COLD AIR MASS ENCOMPASSES THE REGION...ICE COVER ON
RIVERS/LAKES WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS
THIS WEEKEND.

THEN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-
     064>066-083-084.
MA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/11
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/11




000
FXUS61 KBTV 112351
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
651 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL
TRACK EASTWARD WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST...SKIES WILL
BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. IT WILL BE COLD WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT
VALLEYS...AND GENERALLY ZERO TO 10 BELOW ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND ARCTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SHOWERS OR SQUALLS ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE WINTER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MONDAY...WITH A STORM SYSTEM
BRINGING MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 631 PM EST THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR
TONIGHT. DID INCREASE POPS AND SKY COVER SLIGHTLY TO ACCT FOR
CURRENT FLURRY/SHSN ACTIVITY, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE A RESULT OF THE
WARM LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATERS WHERE LAKE INDUCED CAPE IS AVERAGING
AROUND 700 J/KG. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO ABOUT AN
INCH ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. FROUDE DATA INDICATING BLOCKED FLOW DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ACT TO SLOW CLEARING PROCESS SOMEWHAT DESPITE
WEAK BUBBLE HIGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. LOW TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY APPEAR ON TRACK THOUGH DID LOWER HOURLY READINGS A BIT
AS VALUES HAVE FALLEN A BIT QUICKER THAN EARLIER INDICATIONS. HAVE
A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
COMPACT MID-LEVEL VORT EVIDENT IN IR AND VIS IMAGERY ACROSS THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL SHIFT EWD ALONG THE INTL BORDER AND SHIFT
EAST OF VT BY 06Z. LOOKING AT JUST A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THIS FEATURE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AIDED BY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES (IN LOW-LEVEL CAA REGIME) AND WLY 850MB FLOW OF 15-20KTS
PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREENS. ANY
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR LESS...MAINLY CONFINED TO
AREAS OF OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT
WITH CLEARING SKIES AS NARROW SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FROM THE
WEST AFTER 06Z...CRESTING ACROSS VT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. CORE OF
COLDEST 850MB TEMPS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS EVENING...GENERALLY -24C
TO -26C. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THIN LAYER OF SNOW COVER
WILL AID IN RADIATIVE COOLING...ESPECIALLY LATE WITH CLEARING AND
DIMINISHING WIND. LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE FOR
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND AROUND SPRINGFIELD VT...AND GENERALLY
ZERO TO -10F ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT: SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER VORT DIGS ESEWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS ALLOWS
SFC-850MB FLOW TO BACK AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. LOW-LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES FROM LAKE ONTARIO BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS INTO
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...LIKELY STARTING AROUND 14-15Z FRIDAY PER
BTV LOCAL WRF RUNS. PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE
CONFINED TO ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WITH VARIABLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND WEAK S-SW FLOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE
BRIEFLY AUGMENTED BY LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE AS ARCTIC BNDRY SWEEPS INTO NRN NY BETWEEN
02-05Z...AND ACROSS VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD SEE POTENTIAL SNOW
SQUALLS ALONG THE BNDRY AS IT MOVES ACROSS ENTIRE CWA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW END BEHIND
ARCTIC BNDRY AS MEAN FLOW VEERS RAPIDLY FROM SW-NW.

WILL BE REPLACING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WITH A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY THIS AFTN FOR SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY 14Z FRIDAY
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY TO COVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY
3-6". WILL PROBABLY SEE A COUPLE OF COMMUNITIES IN EXCESS OF 6"
SNOWFALL AROUND FINE, NY...BUT ANTICIPATE THAT WILL BE ISOLD GIVEN
TRANSITIONAL NATURE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
BACKS AND THEN QUICKLY VEERS WITH FROPA. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE A
DUSTING TO 2" FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SNOW
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALL ACTIVITY. SNOW RATIOS GENERALLY 20:1
TO 25:1 GIVEN VERY COLD AIR MASS...AND NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS (ALSO CONSIDERING PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT TRAFFIC).

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY GENERALLY GENERALLY TEENS TO LOWER
20S. STRONG CAA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN TO 5 TO 10
BELOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...INCLUDING WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30 BELOW (SEE FORTHCOMING
SHORT-TERM FORECAST SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON DANGEROUSLY LOW
WIND CHILLS FOR THE WEEKEND). LOWS ACROSS VERMONT AND THE NY SIDE
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY ZERO TO +7F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EST THURSDAY...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
THE WAKE OF STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH MAXES OCCURRING IN THE MORNING IN THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NY...AND THE
POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD.
MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
AS DEPARTING SURFACE LOW MOVES NEWD AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
MID-WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE
WITH GUSTS 15-25KTS POSSIBLE. COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO -30C TO
-25C EARLY SUNDAY. THIS COLD FRIGID AIR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
AND WINDS SUBSIDE WHILE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE ALOFT. AIR
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO...RANGING FROM
NEGATIVE TEENS TO NEGATIVE 20S. SUNDAY WILL SEE MAX TEMPERATURES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

PRECIPITATION-WISE...SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WITH FROUDE NUMBERS SHOWING SLOW MOVING/BLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS FOR SATURDAY WITH A
DRYING TREND THEREAFTER. WITH LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPERATURES
STILL IN THE MID 30S, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STEAM CLOUDS DEVELOPING
IN COLDER AIR AND POSSIBLE TEA KETTLE TYPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EST THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT.
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP
MODERATE TEMPERATURES MONDAY...WITH MAXES REACHING THE 20S.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE FROM DIGGING 500MB TROUGH
THAT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHILE
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TRACK OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE THAT DEVELOPS,
EXPECT LOW TO BEGIN BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN FROM THE SOUTH ON
TUESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF CURRENTLY BRING SIGNIFICANT WARMING TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND RESULT IN ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO TRANSITION
TO RAIN LATE TUESDAY. BUT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, COLD
AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED. MULTIPLE VORTICES IN 500MB TROUGH MAY KEEP
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO COASTAL CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TREND TOWARD VFR OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AND NW FLOW RELAXES GENERALLY AFTER 06Z.

AT BTV...NW FLOW ACROSS THE 37 DEGREE WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN
MAY BRING FLURRIES OR EVEN A SNOW SHOWER FOR A WHILE TONIGHT. FOR
NOW JUST MENTIONING AS VCTY SNOW SHOWERS BUT ITS ENTIRELY POSSIBLETHAT
CIGS GO MVFR AND VSBY IFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE 04Z. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION ON RUNWAYS.

OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS (2-3 KFT) GENERALLY LIMITED TO SLK OTHERWISE
THE TREND TO VFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

WILL BEGIN TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND LOCALLY IFR VSBY AT SLK/MSS
WITH -SHSN POSSIBLE AFTER 17Z ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW
FROM LAKE ONTARIO AND FRINGE IMPACT FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS.

NW WINDS BRIEFLY GUSTY 15 TO 20KTS THRU EARLY EVENING...THEN
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING THEN SHIFTING
TO THE S AND SW AROUND 10KTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

S WINDS MAYBE A PROBLEM AT KBTV GROUND OPERATIONS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT WITH DRIFTING OR BLOWING SNOW BY 00Z SAT AND
MAY BE GUSTING OVER 30KTS UNTIL THE ARCTIC FRONT PASSES EARLY SAT
A.M.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LCL VLIFR IN SNOW SQUALLS
BRIEFLY POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT 02-05Z ACROSS NRN NY AND 05-09Z
ACROSS VT AS ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THRU...WITH VSBY BRIEFLY LESS THAN
1/2 MILE AND A WIND SHIFT TO NW WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS. MODEST
IMPACT TO AIRPORT GROUND OPERATIONS WITH DUSTING TO 2" SNOWFALL
PSBL. GENERALLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW
WIND GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTN AND EVE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ029-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/JMG
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS/SISSON




000
FXUS61 KALY 112335
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
635 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES ENDING THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EST...A SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION. NOW
THAT THE SUN HAS SET...CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE DECREASING IN
AREAL COVERAGE...ESP IN VALLEY AREAS...WHILE PERSISTING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY/EASTERN CATSKILLS AND FAR WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN MA. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS HAVE MAINLY SHIFTED
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE HERKIMER CO...SO HAVE ALLOWED THE LES
ADVISORY TO END FOR HERKIMER CO.

ALSO...DEEP MIXING HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME WIND GUSTS TO REACH AROUND
40 MPH...ESP WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES. THESE GUSTS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND 9 PM...BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING.
EVENTUALLY...AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION...WINDS SHOULD BECOME MUCH LIGHTER ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH AN ADDITIONAL
1-2 INCHES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SCHOHARIE/SOUTHWEST ALBANY CO...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A COATING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH POSSIBLE IN SOME VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY.

LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...EXCEPT
FOR LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WHERE SOME
FLURRIES COULD ALSO REMAIN.

TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH SOME SUBZERO MINS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...AND
POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AS THE WIND MAY
BRIEFLY TREND TO CALM.

BEFORE WINDS DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD DIP INTO THE -5 TO -15 RANGE...WITH THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
...WIND CHILL WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ALL AREAS...

FRIDAY...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...PROVIDING SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY INDUCE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO AT TIMES IN
THE MORNING...BEFORE THE FLOW BACKS FURTHER AND ALLOWS SNOW
SHOWERS TO FOCUS MAINLY NORTH OF THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD WARM
INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER/MID 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS. BEFORE THIS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THE COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AND ACTUAL
SNOWBANDS WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER/NW
HAMILTON COS BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
SNOWBAND WILL BE FAIRLY MIGRATORY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MERGES AND PUSHES IT
SOUTHWARD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVELS OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 28 FRIDAY
EVENING...BEFORE ANY SNOWBAND SHIFTS SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT. AT
THIS TIME...NO HEADLINES...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
ADVISORIES IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FURTHER FOR MODERATE OR
GREATER SNOWFALL AMTS ACROSS THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD FALL
QUICKLY BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS...EXCEPT FOR ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS BITTERLY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
DRIVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC
FRONT. SAT TEMPS MAY FALL THROUGH THE DAY...AFTER INITIAL MAXES OF
5-10 ABOVE ZERO IN VALLEYS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST INTO THE 30-45
MPH RANGE...OR EVEN HIGHER SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEN...MIN TEMPS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL WELL BELOW ZERO IN ALL AREAS...WITH -10
TO -20 LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AND
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. COMBINED WITH BRISK WINDS...EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES TO
FALL INTO THE -20 TO -35 RANGE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND -35 TO
-45 RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS SAT NT/SUN AM...COLDEST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT HAS BEEN AN
EXCEPTIONALLY WARM WINTER THUS FAR...THE IMPACTS OF THIS BITTER
COLD OUTBREAK WILL BE EVEN MORE DANGEROUS AND DOWNRIGHT LIFE
THREATENING. PLEASE REFER TO OUR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS/SPS/
AND/OR PNS/PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS/ FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
AND COLD WEATHER SAFETY TIPS DURING THIS EXTREME COLD OUTBREAK.
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY RECOVER SLIGHTLY TO SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...BUT WITH LESS WIND BY LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS ANY SNOW...SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD POOL
PASSING NEARBY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE BRUNT OF ANY MORE
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WEST OF OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A COLD START TO THE WEEK...BUT THEN A
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY
PCPN...AND WINDY CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IMPACTING
THE REGION...AS THE SFC ANTICYCLONE SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO CALM.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY
START TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO
10 BELOW...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS WHERE SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS ARE POSSIBLE...AND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ACROSS NW CT...THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE SRN TACONICS.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
WARM FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE
SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING.  SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY REACH LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
LATE IN THE DAY.  CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THESE AREAS.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMS WILL ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF AN INCH OR LESS.  HIGHS WILL STILL
BE BELOW NORMAL BY ABOUT 10 DEGS...AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR TO SCOUR OUT.  HIGHS FROM THE SUPERBLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS TO
AROUND 20F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...GOOD CONSENSUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
DETERMINISTIC...ENSEMBLE...AND WPC GUIDANCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT.  AN H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE TURNING NEGATIVELY
TITLED...AND SOME NRN STREAM ENERGY MAY PHASE WITH THE SRN STREAM OF
THE UPPER JET.  A MORE PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT WILL BE EXTENDING N/NE
OF THE SFC CYCLONE.  AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL
CONTINUE OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  POPS WERE KEPT IN THE
HIGH CHC/LIKELY CATEGORY MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.  THE
STRONG LIFT...AND VERTICAL THERMO PROFILES/CRITICAL PARTIAL
THICKNESSES FAVOR SNOW FOR THE PTYPE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF A FEW INCHES AT THIS
POINT. LOWS MAY START OUT IN THE TEENS AND L20S...AND SLOWLY RISE.

BY TUE MORNING...THE LATEST GEFS MSLP MEAN HAS A SFC CYCLONE OVER
THE CAROLINAS.  THE LATEST WPC DAY 5 HAS IT ON THE NC/SC BORDER.  IT
IS GOING TO TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE THE COLD AIR SCOURS OUT...MUCH OF
THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOWFALL...BUT A STRENGTHENING H850
LLJ OF 50-70 KTS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AND TRANSITION SNOW TO
MIXED PCPN/RAIN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE TUE. THE
SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES /+V-COMPONENT OF THE WIND/ INCREASE TO 1 TO
3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. PWATS ARE ABOVE NORMAL. THE QUESTION
REMAINS WHERE THE CYCLONE TRACKS.  THE LATEST ECMWF IS VERY
PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE H500 NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH CAPTURING THE
CYCLONE...AND ALLOWING IT TO TRACK WELL WEST OF THE REGION OVER W-
CNTRL NY. THIS WOULD BE A WARM SOLUTION WITH WET...AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. THE GFS/CAN GGEM ARE FURTHER EAST HAVING THE CYCLONE
TRACK EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY /12Z GFS/ OR EAST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY /12Z CAN GGEM AND 12Z GEFS MEAN/. THE TRACK WILL PLAY A
BIG ROLE ON THE PTYPE.  OUR FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AND WPC...WHICH ALLOWS FOR A TRANSITION TO RAIN
OVER MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE SRN DACKS.  SOME
SLEET OR FZRA MAY BE POSSIBLE TOO...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
ALY.  TOTAL QPF MAY EXCEED AN INCH OR MORE ON TUE.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE U30S TO L40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST...AND U20S TO M30S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...TRICKY FCST CONTINUES HINGING ON THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM.  THE PCPN COULD QUICKLY TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW TUE
NIGHT...IF THE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY.  SOME HVY WET
SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE.  OUR FCST REFLECTS A RAIN TO SNOW
TRANSITION...AS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT KICKS IN.  ADDITIONAL HVY QPF
IS POSSIBLE.  TOTAL QPF MAY BE IN THE INCH PLUS RANGE ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE FCST AREA.  OVERALL...WPC GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A 1-3 INCH
QPF EVENT IS POSSIBLE.  IF THE HVY RAINFALL MATERIALIZES...IT MAY
CAUSE FLOODING ON THE FROZEN  GROUND.  A MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IS
SHAPING UP MON NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK.  MID AND UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO WED.  LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO L30S NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND M30S TO AROUND 40F FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE
ONTARIO...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THU WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR MID-FEB /5-10 DEGS/. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO L20S /FEW SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS/...AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO L30S.

OVERALL...TEMPS WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE STRETCH WITH
PCPN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS
EVENING...RESULTING IN CONTINUED BKN CIGS IN VFR RANGE AND WIDELY
SCATTERED -SHSN. WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT KALB/KPSF DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING...HOWEVER KPSF IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE
OCCASIONAL -SHSN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. ANY -SHSN SHOULD END THIS
EVENING...WITH CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY DECREASING AS A SMALL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA.

WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30
KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY
DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTON`S BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SN. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OTHER THAN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY...LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. HOWEVER...AS A
BITTER COLD AIR MASS ENCOMPASSES THE REGION...ICE COVER ON
RIVERS/LAKES WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS
THIS WEEKEND.

THEN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-
     064>066-083-084.
MA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/11
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...KL/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 112335
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
635 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES ENDING THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EST...A SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION. NOW
THAT THE SUN HAS SET...CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE DECREASING IN
AREAL COVERAGE...ESP IN VALLEY AREAS...WHILE PERSISTING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY/EASTERN CATSKILLS AND FAR WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN MA. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS HAVE MAINLY SHIFTED
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE HERKIMER CO...SO HAVE ALLOWED THE LES
ADVISORY TO END FOR HERKIMER CO.

ALSO...DEEP MIXING HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME WIND GUSTS TO REACH AROUND
40 MPH...ESP WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES. THESE GUSTS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND 9 PM...BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING.
EVENTUALLY...AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION...WINDS SHOULD BECOME MUCH LIGHTER ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH AN ADDITIONAL
1-2 INCHES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SCHOHARIE/SOUTHWEST ALBANY CO...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A COATING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH POSSIBLE IN SOME VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY.

LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...EXCEPT
FOR LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WHERE SOME
FLURRIES COULD ALSO REMAIN.

TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH SOME SUBZERO MINS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...AND
POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AS THE WIND MAY
BRIEFLY TREND TO CALM.

BEFORE WINDS DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD DIP INTO THE -5 TO -15 RANGE...WITH THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
...WIND CHILL WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ALL AREAS...

FRIDAY...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...PROVIDING SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY INDUCE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO AT TIMES IN
THE MORNING...BEFORE THE FLOW BACKS FURTHER AND ALLOWS SNOW
SHOWERS TO FOCUS MAINLY NORTH OF THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD WARM
INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER/MID 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS. BEFORE THIS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THE COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AND ACTUAL
SNOWBANDS WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER/NW
HAMILTON COS BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
SNOWBAND WILL BE FAIRLY MIGRATORY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MERGES AND PUSHES IT
SOUTHWARD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVELS OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 28 FRIDAY
EVENING...BEFORE ANY SNOWBAND SHIFTS SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT. AT
THIS TIME...NO HEADLINES...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
ADVISORIES IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FURTHER FOR MODERATE OR
GREATER SNOWFALL AMTS ACROSS THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD FALL
QUICKLY BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS...EXCEPT FOR ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS BITTERLY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
DRIVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC
FRONT. SAT TEMPS MAY FALL THROUGH THE DAY...AFTER INITIAL MAXES OF
5-10 ABOVE ZERO IN VALLEYS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST INTO THE 30-45
MPH RANGE...OR EVEN HIGHER SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEN...MIN TEMPS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL WELL BELOW ZERO IN ALL AREAS...WITH -10
TO -20 LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AND
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. COMBINED WITH BRISK WINDS...EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES TO
FALL INTO THE -20 TO -35 RANGE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND -35 TO
-45 RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS SAT NT/SUN AM...COLDEST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT HAS BEEN AN
EXCEPTIONALLY WARM WINTER THUS FAR...THE IMPACTS OF THIS BITTER
COLD OUTBREAK WILL BE EVEN MORE DANGEROUS AND DOWNRIGHT LIFE
THREATENING. PLEASE REFER TO OUR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS/SPS/
AND/OR PNS/PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS/ FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
AND COLD WEATHER SAFETY TIPS DURING THIS EXTREME COLD OUTBREAK.
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY RECOVER SLIGHTLY TO SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...BUT WITH LESS WIND BY LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS ANY SNOW...SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD POOL
PASSING NEARBY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE BRUNT OF ANY MORE
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WEST OF OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A COLD START TO THE WEEK...BUT THEN A
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY
PCPN...AND WINDY CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IMPACTING
THE REGION...AS THE SFC ANTICYCLONE SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO CALM.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY
START TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO
10 BELOW...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS WHERE SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS ARE POSSIBLE...AND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ACROSS NW CT...THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE SRN TACONICS.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
WARM FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE
SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING.  SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY REACH LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
LATE IN THE DAY.  CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THESE AREAS.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMS WILL ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF AN INCH OR LESS.  HIGHS WILL STILL
BE BELOW NORMAL BY ABOUT 10 DEGS...AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR TO SCOUR OUT.  HIGHS FROM THE SUPERBLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS TO
AROUND 20F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...GOOD CONSENSUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
DETERMINISTIC...ENSEMBLE...AND WPC GUIDANCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT.  AN H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE TURNING NEGATIVELY
TITLED...AND SOME NRN STREAM ENERGY MAY PHASE WITH THE SRN STREAM OF
THE UPPER JET.  A MORE PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT WILL BE EXTENDING N/NE
OF THE SFC CYCLONE.  AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL
CONTINUE OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  POPS WERE KEPT IN THE
HIGH CHC/LIKELY CATEGORY MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.  THE
STRONG LIFT...AND VERTICAL THERMO PROFILES/CRITICAL PARTIAL
THICKNESSES FAVOR SNOW FOR THE PTYPE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF A FEW INCHES AT THIS
POINT. LOWS MAY START OUT IN THE TEENS AND L20S...AND SLOWLY RISE.

BY TUE MORNING...THE LATEST GEFS MSLP MEAN HAS A SFC CYCLONE OVER
THE CAROLINAS.  THE LATEST WPC DAY 5 HAS IT ON THE NC/SC BORDER.  IT
IS GOING TO TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE THE COLD AIR SCOURS OUT...MUCH OF
THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOWFALL...BUT A STRENGTHENING H850
LLJ OF 50-70 KTS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AND TRANSITION SNOW TO
MIXED PCPN/RAIN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE TUE. THE
SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES /+V-COMPONENT OF THE WIND/ INCREASE TO 1 TO
3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. PWATS ARE ABOVE NORMAL. THE QUESTION
REMAINS WHERE THE CYCLONE TRACKS.  THE LATEST ECMWF IS VERY
PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE H500 NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH CAPTURING THE
CYCLONE...AND ALLOWING IT TO TRACK WELL WEST OF THE REGION OVER W-
CNTRL NY. THIS WOULD BE A WARM SOLUTION WITH WET...AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. THE GFS/CAN GGEM ARE FURTHER EAST HAVING THE CYCLONE
TRACK EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY /12Z GFS/ OR EAST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY /12Z CAN GGEM AND 12Z GEFS MEAN/. THE TRACK WILL PLAY A
BIG ROLE ON THE PTYPE.  OUR FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AND WPC...WHICH ALLOWS FOR A TRANSITION TO RAIN
OVER MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE SRN DACKS.  SOME
SLEET OR FZRA MAY BE POSSIBLE TOO...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
ALY.  TOTAL QPF MAY EXCEED AN INCH OR MORE ON TUE.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE U30S TO L40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST...AND U20S TO M30S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...TRICKY FCST CONTINUES HINGING ON THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM.  THE PCPN COULD QUICKLY TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW TUE
NIGHT...IF THE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY.  SOME HVY WET
SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE.  OUR FCST REFLECTS A RAIN TO SNOW
TRANSITION...AS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT KICKS IN.  ADDITIONAL HVY QPF
IS POSSIBLE.  TOTAL QPF MAY BE IN THE INCH PLUS RANGE ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE FCST AREA.  OVERALL...WPC GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A 1-3 INCH
QPF EVENT IS POSSIBLE.  IF THE HVY RAINFALL MATERIALIZES...IT MAY
CAUSE FLOODING ON THE FROZEN  GROUND.  A MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IS
SHAPING UP MON NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK.  MID AND UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO WED.  LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO L30S NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND M30S TO AROUND 40F FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE
ONTARIO...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THU WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR MID-FEB /5-10 DEGS/. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO L20S /FEW SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS/...AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO L30S.

OVERALL...TEMPS WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE STRETCH WITH
PCPN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS
EVENING...RESULTING IN CONTINUED BKN CIGS IN VFR RANGE AND WIDELY
SCATTERED -SHSN. WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT KALB/KPSF DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING...HOWEVER KPSF IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE
OCCASIONAL -SHSN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. ANY -SHSN SHOULD END THIS
EVENING...WITH CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY DECREASING AS A SMALL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA.

WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30
KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY
DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTON`S BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SN. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OTHER THAN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY...LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. HOWEVER...AS A
BITTER COLD AIR MASS ENCOMPASSES THE REGION...ICE COVER ON
RIVERS/LAKES WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS
THIS WEEKEND.

THEN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-
     064>066-083-084.
MA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/11
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...KL/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 112335
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
635 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES ENDING THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EST...A SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION. NOW
THAT THE SUN HAS SET...CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE DECREASING IN
AREAL COVERAGE...ESP IN VALLEY AREAS...WHILE PERSISTING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY/EASTERN CATSKILLS AND FAR WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN MA. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS HAVE MAINLY SHIFTED
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE HERKIMER CO...SO HAVE ALLOWED THE LES
ADVISORY TO END FOR HERKIMER CO.

ALSO...DEEP MIXING HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME WIND GUSTS TO REACH AROUND
40 MPH...ESP WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES. THESE GUSTS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND 9 PM...BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING.
EVENTUALLY...AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION...WINDS SHOULD BECOME MUCH LIGHTER ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH AN ADDITIONAL
1-2 INCHES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SCHOHARIE/SOUTHWEST ALBANY CO...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A COATING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH POSSIBLE IN SOME VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY.

LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...EXCEPT
FOR LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WHERE SOME
FLURRIES COULD ALSO REMAIN.

TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH SOME SUBZERO MINS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...AND
POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AS THE WIND MAY
BRIEFLY TREND TO CALM.

BEFORE WINDS DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD DIP INTO THE -5 TO -15 RANGE...WITH THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
...WIND CHILL WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ALL AREAS...

FRIDAY...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...PROVIDING SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY INDUCE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO AT TIMES IN
THE MORNING...BEFORE THE FLOW BACKS FURTHER AND ALLOWS SNOW
SHOWERS TO FOCUS MAINLY NORTH OF THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD WARM
INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER/MID 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS. BEFORE THIS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THE COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AND ACTUAL
SNOWBANDS WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER/NW
HAMILTON COS BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
SNOWBAND WILL BE FAIRLY MIGRATORY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MERGES AND PUSHES IT
SOUTHWARD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVELS OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 28 FRIDAY
EVENING...BEFORE ANY SNOWBAND SHIFTS SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT. AT
THIS TIME...NO HEADLINES...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
ADVISORIES IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FURTHER FOR MODERATE OR
GREATER SNOWFALL AMTS ACROSS THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD FALL
QUICKLY BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS...EXCEPT FOR ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS BITTERLY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
DRIVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC
FRONT. SAT TEMPS MAY FALL THROUGH THE DAY...AFTER INITIAL MAXES OF
5-10 ABOVE ZERO IN VALLEYS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST INTO THE 30-45
MPH RANGE...OR EVEN HIGHER SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEN...MIN TEMPS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL WELL BELOW ZERO IN ALL AREAS...WITH -10
TO -20 LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AND
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. COMBINED WITH BRISK WINDS...EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES TO
FALL INTO THE -20 TO -35 RANGE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND -35 TO
-45 RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS SAT NT/SUN AM...COLDEST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT HAS BEEN AN
EXCEPTIONALLY WARM WINTER THUS FAR...THE IMPACTS OF THIS BITTER
COLD OUTBREAK WILL BE EVEN MORE DANGEROUS AND DOWNRIGHT LIFE
THREATENING. PLEASE REFER TO OUR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS/SPS/
AND/OR PNS/PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS/ FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
AND COLD WEATHER SAFETY TIPS DURING THIS EXTREME COLD OUTBREAK.
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY RECOVER SLIGHTLY TO SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...BUT WITH LESS WIND BY LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS ANY SNOW...SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD POOL
PASSING NEARBY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE BRUNT OF ANY MORE
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WEST OF OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A COLD START TO THE WEEK...BUT THEN A
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY
PCPN...AND WINDY CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IMPACTING
THE REGION...AS THE SFC ANTICYCLONE SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO CALM.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY
START TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO
10 BELOW...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS WHERE SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS ARE POSSIBLE...AND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ACROSS NW CT...THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE SRN TACONICS.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
WARM FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE
SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING.  SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY REACH LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
LATE IN THE DAY.  CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THESE AREAS.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMS WILL ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF AN INCH OR LESS.  HIGHS WILL STILL
BE BELOW NORMAL BY ABOUT 10 DEGS...AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR TO SCOUR OUT.  HIGHS FROM THE SUPERBLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS TO
AROUND 20F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...GOOD CONSENSUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
DETERMINISTIC...ENSEMBLE...AND WPC GUIDANCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT.  AN H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE TURNING NEGATIVELY
TITLED...AND SOME NRN STREAM ENERGY MAY PHASE WITH THE SRN STREAM OF
THE UPPER JET.  A MORE PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT WILL BE EXTENDING N/NE
OF THE SFC CYCLONE.  AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL
CONTINUE OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  POPS WERE KEPT IN THE
HIGH CHC/LIKELY CATEGORY MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.  THE
STRONG LIFT...AND VERTICAL THERMO PROFILES/CRITICAL PARTIAL
THICKNESSES FAVOR SNOW FOR THE PTYPE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF A FEW INCHES AT THIS
POINT. LOWS MAY START OUT IN THE TEENS AND L20S...AND SLOWLY RISE.

BY TUE MORNING...THE LATEST GEFS MSLP MEAN HAS A SFC CYCLONE OVER
THE CAROLINAS.  THE LATEST WPC DAY 5 HAS IT ON THE NC/SC BORDER.  IT
IS GOING TO TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE THE COLD AIR SCOURS OUT...MUCH OF
THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOWFALL...BUT A STRENGTHENING H850
LLJ OF 50-70 KTS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AND TRANSITION SNOW TO
MIXED PCPN/RAIN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE TUE. THE
SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES /+V-COMPONENT OF THE WIND/ INCREASE TO 1 TO
3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. PWATS ARE ABOVE NORMAL. THE QUESTION
REMAINS WHERE THE CYCLONE TRACKS.  THE LATEST ECMWF IS VERY
PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE H500 NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH CAPTURING THE
CYCLONE...AND ALLOWING IT TO TRACK WELL WEST OF THE REGION OVER W-
CNTRL NY. THIS WOULD BE A WARM SOLUTION WITH WET...AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. THE GFS/CAN GGEM ARE FURTHER EAST HAVING THE CYCLONE
TRACK EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY /12Z GFS/ OR EAST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY /12Z CAN GGEM AND 12Z GEFS MEAN/. THE TRACK WILL PLAY A
BIG ROLE ON THE PTYPE.  OUR FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AND WPC...WHICH ALLOWS FOR A TRANSITION TO RAIN
OVER MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE SRN DACKS.  SOME
SLEET OR FZRA MAY BE POSSIBLE TOO...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
ALY.  TOTAL QPF MAY EXCEED AN INCH OR MORE ON TUE.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE U30S TO L40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST...AND U20S TO M30S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...TRICKY FCST CONTINUES HINGING ON THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM.  THE PCPN COULD QUICKLY TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW TUE
NIGHT...IF THE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY.  SOME HVY WET
SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE.  OUR FCST REFLECTS A RAIN TO SNOW
TRANSITION...AS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT KICKS IN.  ADDITIONAL HVY QPF
IS POSSIBLE.  TOTAL QPF MAY BE IN THE INCH PLUS RANGE ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE FCST AREA.  OVERALL...WPC GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A 1-3 INCH
QPF EVENT IS POSSIBLE.  IF THE HVY RAINFALL MATERIALIZES...IT MAY
CAUSE FLOODING ON THE FROZEN  GROUND.  A MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IS
SHAPING UP MON NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK.  MID AND UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO WED.  LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO L30S NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND M30S TO AROUND 40F FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE
ONTARIO...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THU WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR MID-FEB /5-10 DEGS/. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO L20S /FEW SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS/...AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO L30S.

OVERALL...TEMPS WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE STRETCH WITH
PCPN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS
EVENING...RESULTING IN CONTINUED BKN CIGS IN VFR RANGE AND WIDELY
SCATTERED -SHSN. WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT KALB/KPSF DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING...HOWEVER KPSF IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE
OCCASIONAL -SHSN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. ANY -SHSN SHOULD END THIS
EVENING...WITH CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY DECREASING AS A SMALL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA.

WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30
KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY
DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTON`S BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SN. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OTHER THAN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY...LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. HOWEVER...AS A
BITTER COLD AIR MASS ENCOMPASSES THE REGION...ICE COVER ON
RIVERS/LAKES WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS
THIS WEEKEND.

THEN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-
     064>066-083-084.
MA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/11
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...KL/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 112335
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
635 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES ENDING THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EST...A SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION. NOW
THAT THE SUN HAS SET...CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE DECREASING IN
AREAL COVERAGE...ESP IN VALLEY AREAS...WHILE PERSISTING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY/EASTERN CATSKILLS AND FAR WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN MA. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS HAVE MAINLY SHIFTED
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE HERKIMER CO...SO HAVE ALLOWED THE LES
ADVISORY TO END FOR HERKIMER CO.

ALSO...DEEP MIXING HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME WIND GUSTS TO REACH AROUND
40 MPH...ESP WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES. THESE GUSTS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND 9 PM...BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING.
EVENTUALLY...AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION...WINDS SHOULD BECOME MUCH LIGHTER ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH AN ADDITIONAL
1-2 INCHES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SCHOHARIE/SOUTHWEST ALBANY CO...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A COATING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH POSSIBLE IN SOME VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY.

LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...EXCEPT
FOR LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WHERE SOME
FLURRIES COULD ALSO REMAIN.

TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH SOME SUBZERO MINS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...AND
POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AS THE WIND MAY
BRIEFLY TREND TO CALM.

BEFORE WINDS DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD DIP INTO THE -5 TO -15 RANGE...WITH THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
...WIND CHILL WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ALL AREAS...

FRIDAY...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...PROVIDING SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY INDUCE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO AT TIMES IN
THE MORNING...BEFORE THE FLOW BACKS FURTHER AND ALLOWS SNOW
SHOWERS TO FOCUS MAINLY NORTH OF THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD WARM
INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER/MID 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS. BEFORE THIS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THE COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AND ACTUAL
SNOWBANDS WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER/NW
HAMILTON COS BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
SNOWBAND WILL BE FAIRLY MIGRATORY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MERGES AND PUSHES IT
SOUTHWARD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVELS OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 28 FRIDAY
EVENING...BEFORE ANY SNOWBAND SHIFTS SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT. AT
THIS TIME...NO HEADLINES...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
ADVISORIES IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FURTHER FOR MODERATE OR
GREATER SNOWFALL AMTS ACROSS THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD FALL
QUICKLY BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS...EXCEPT FOR ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS BITTERLY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
DRIVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC
FRONT. SAT TEMPS MAY FALL THROUGH THE DAY...AFTER INITIAL MAXES OF
5-10 ABOVE ZERO IN VALLEYS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST INTO THE 30-45
MPH RANGE...OR EVEN HIGHER SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEN...MIN TEMPS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL WELL BELOW ZERO IN ALL AREAS...WITH -10
TO -20 LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AND
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. COMBINED WITH BRISK WINDS...EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES TO
FALL INTO THE -20 TO -35 RANGE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND -35 TO
-45 RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS SAT NT/SUN AM...COLDEST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT HAS BEEN AN
EXCEPTIONALLY WARM WINTER THUS FAR...THE IMPACTS OF THIS BITTER
COLD OUTBREAK WILL BE EVEN MORE DANGEROUS AND DOWNRIGHT LIFE
THREATENING. PLEASE REFER TO OUR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS/SPS/
AND/OR PNS/PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS/ FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
AND COLD WEATHER SAFETY TIPS DURING THIS EXTREME COLD OUTBREAK.
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY RECOVER SLIGHTLY TO SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...BUT WITH LESS WIND BY LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS ANY SNOW...SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD POOL
PASSING NEARBY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE BRUNT OF ANY MORE
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WEST OF OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A COLD START TO THE WEEK...BUT THEN A
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY
PCPN...AND WINDY CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IMPACTING
THE REGION...AS THE SFC ANTICYCLONE SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO CALM.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY
START TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO
10 BELOW...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS WHERE SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS ARE POSSIBLE...AND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ACROSS NW CT...THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE SRN TACONICS.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
WARM FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE
SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING.  SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY REACH LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
LATE IN THE DAY.  CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THESE AREAS.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMS WILL ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF AN INCH OR LESS.  HIGHS WILL STILL
BE BELOW NORMAL BY ABOUT 10 DEGS...AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR TO SCOUR OUT.  HIGHS FROM THE SUPERBLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS TO
AROUND 20F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...GOOD CONSENSUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
DETERMINISTIC...ENSEMBLE...AND WPC GUIDANCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT.  AN H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE TURNING NEGATIVELY
TITLED...AND SOME NRN STREAM ENERGY MAY PHASE WITH THE SRN STREAM OF
THE UPPER JET.  A MORE PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT WILL BE EXTENDING N/NE
OF THE SFC CYCLONE.  AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL
CONTINUE OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  POPS WERE KEPT IN THE
HIGH CHC/LIKELY CATEGORY MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.  THE
STRONG LIFT...AND VERTICAL THERMO PROFILES/CRITICAL PARTIAL
THICKNESSES FAVOR SNOW FOR THE PTYPE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF A FEW INCHES AT THIS
POINT. LOWS MAY START OUT IN THE TEENS AND L20S...AND SLOWLY RISE.

BY TUE MORNING...THE LATEST GEFS MSLP MEAN HAS A SFC CYCLONE OVER
THE CAROLINAS.  THE LATEST WPC DAY 5 HAS IT ON THE NC/SC BORDER.  IT
IS GOING TO TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE THE COLD AIR SCOURS OUT...MUCH OF
THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOWFALL...BUT A STRENGTHENING H850
LLJ OF 50-70 KTS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AND TRANSITION SNOW TO
MIXED PCPN/RAIN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE TUE. THE
SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES /+V-COMPONENT OF THE WIND/ INCREASE TO 1 TO
3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. PWATS ARE ABOVE NORMAL. THE QUESTION
REMAINS WHERE THE CYCLONE TRACKS.  THE LATEST ECMWF IS VERY
PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE H500 NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH CAPTURING THE
CYCLONE...AND ALLOWING IT TO TRACK WELL WEST OF THE REGION OVER W-
CNTRL NY. THIS WOULD BE A WARM SOLUTION WITH WET...AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. THE GFS/CAN GGEM ARE FURTHER EAST HAVING THE CYCLONE
TRACK EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY /12Z GFS/ OR EAST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY /12Z CAN GGEM AND 12Z GEFS MEAN/. THE TRACK WILL PLAY A
BIG ROLE ON THE PTYPE.  OUR FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AND WPC...WHICH ALLOWS FOR A TRANSITION TO RAIN
OVER MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE SRN DACKS.  SOME
SLEET OR FZRA MAY BE POSSIBLE TOO...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
ALY.  TOTAL QPF MAY EXCEED AN INCH OR MORE ON TUE.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE U30S TO L40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST...AND U20S TO M30S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...TRICKY FCST CONTINUES HINGING ON THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM.  THE PCPN COULD QUICKLY TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW TUE
NIGHT...IF THE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY.  SOME HVY WET
SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE.  OUR FCST REFLECTS A RAIN TO SNOW
TRANSITION...AS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT KICKS IN.  ADDITIONAL HVY QPF
IS POSSIBLE.  TOTAL QPF MAY BE IN THE INCH PLUS RANGE ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE FCST AREA.  OVERALL...WPC GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A 1-3 INCH
QPF EVENT IS POSSIBLE.  IF THE HVY RAINFALL MATERIALIZES...IT MAY
CAUSE FLOODING ON THE FROZEN  GROUND.  A MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IS
SHAPING UP MON NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK.  MID AND UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO WED.  LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO L30S NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND M30S TO AROUND 40F FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE
ONTARIO...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THU WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR MID-FEB /5-10 DEGS/. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO L20S /FEW SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS/...AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO L30S.

OVERALL...TEMPS WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE STRETCH WITH
PCPN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS
EVENING...RESULTING IN CONTINUED BKN CIGS IN VFR RANGE AND WIDELY
SCATTERED -SHSN. WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT KALB/KPSF DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING...HOWEVER KPSF IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE
OCCASIONAL -SHSN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. ANY -SHSN SHOULD END THIS
EVENING...WITH CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY DECREASING AS A SMALL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA.

WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30
KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY
DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTON`S BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SN. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OTHER THAN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY...LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. HOWEVER...AS A
BITTER COLD AIR MASS ENCOMPASSES THE REGION...ICE COVER ON
RIVERS/LAKES WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS
THIS WEEKEND.

THEN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-
     064>066-083-084.
MA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/11
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...KL/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 112335
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
635 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES ENDING THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EST...A SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION. NOW
THAT THE SUN HAS SET...CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE DECREASING IN
AREAL COVERAGE...ESP IN VALLEY AREAS...WHILE PERSISTING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY/EASTERN CATSKILLS AND FAR WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN MA. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS HAVE MAINLY SHIFTED
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE HERKIMER CO...SO HAVE ALLOWED THE LES
ADVISORY TO END FOR HERKIMER CO.

ALSO...DEEP MIXING HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME WIND GUSTS TO REACH AROUND
40 MPH...ESP WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES. THESE GUSTS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND 9 PM...BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING.
EVENTUALLY...AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION...WINDS SHOULD BECOME MUCH LIGHTER ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH AN ADDITIONAL
1-2 INCHES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SCHOHARIE/SOUTHWEST ALBANY CO...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A COATING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH POSSIBLE IN SOME VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY.

LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...EXCEPT
FOR LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WHERE SOME
FLURRIES COULD ALSO REMAIN.

TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH SOME SUBZERO MINS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...AND
POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AS THE WIND MAY
BRIEFLY TREND TO CALM.

BEFORE WINDS DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD DIP INTO THE -5 TO -15 RANGE...WITH THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
...WIND CHILL WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ALL AREAS...

FRIDAY...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...PROVIDING SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY INDUCE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO AT TIMES IN
THE MORNING...BEFORE THE FLOW BACKS FURTHER AND ALLOWS SNOW
SHOWERS TO FOCUS MAINLY NORTH OF THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD WARM
INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER/MID 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS. BEFORE THIS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THE COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AND ACTUAL
SNOWBANDS WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER/NW
HAMILTON COS BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
SNOWBAND WILL BE FAIRLY MIGRATORY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MERGES AND PUSHES IT
SOUTHWARD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVELS OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 28 FRIDAY
EVENING...BEFORE ANY SNOWBAND SHIFTS SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT. AT
THIS TIME...NO HEADLINES...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
ADVISORIES IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FURTHER FOR MODERATE OR
GREATER SNOWFALL AMTS ACROSS THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD FALL
QUICKLY BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS...EXCEPT FOR ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS BITTERLY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
DRIVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC
FRONT. SAT TEMPS MAY FALL THROUGH THE DAY...AFTER INITIAL MAXES OF
5-10 ABOVE ZERO IN VALLEYS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST INTO THE 30-45
MPH RANGE...OR EVEN HIGHER SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEN...MIN TEMPS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL WELL BELOW ZERO IN ALL AREAS...WITH -10
TO -20 LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AND
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. COMBINED WITH BRISK WINDS...EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES TO
FALL INTO THE -20 TO -35 RANGE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND -35 TO
-45 RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS SAT NT/SUN AM...COLDEST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT HAS BEEN AN
EXCEPTIONALLY WARM WINTER THUS FAR...THE IMPACTS OF THIS BITTER
COLD OUTBREAK WILL BE EVEN MORE DANGEROUS AND DOWNRIGHT LIFE
THREATENING. PLEASE REFER TO OUR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS/SPS/
AND/OR PNS/PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS/ FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
AND COLD WEATHER SAFETY TIPS DURING THIS EXTREME COLD OUTBREAK.
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY RECOVER SLIGHTLY TO SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...BUT WITH LESS WIND BY LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS ANY SNOW...SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD POOL
PASSING NEARBY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE BRUNT OF ANY MORE
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WEST OF OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A COLD START TO THE WEEK...BUT THEN A
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY
PCPN...AND WINDY CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IMPACTING
THE REGION...AS THE SFC ANTICYCLONE SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO CALM.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY
START TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO
10 BELOW...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS WHERE SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS ARE POSSIBLE...AND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ACROSS NW CT...THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE SRN TACONICS.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
WARM FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE
SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING.  SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY REACH LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
LATE IN THE DAY.  CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THESE AREAS.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMS WILL ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF AN INCH OR LESS.  HIGHS WILL STILL
BE BELOW NORMAL BY ABOUT 10 DEGS...AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR TO SCOUR OUT.  HIGHS FROM THE SUPERBLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS TO
AROUND 20F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...GOOD CONSENSUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
DETERMINISTIC...ENSEMBLE...AND WPC GUIDANCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT.  AN H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE TURNING NEGATIVELY
TITLED...AND SOME NRN STREAM ENERGY MAY PHASE WITH THE SRN STREAM OF
THE UPPER JET.  A MORE PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT WILL BE EXTENDING N/NE
OF THE SFC CYCLONE.  AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL
CONTINUE OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  POPS WERE KEPT IN THE
HIGH CHC/LIKELY CATEGORY MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.  THE
STRONG LIFT...AND VERTICAL THERMO PROFILES/CRITICAL PARTIAL
THICKNESSES FAVOR SNOW FOR THE PTYPE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF A FEW INCHES AT THIS
POINT. LOWS MAY START OUT IN THE TEENS AND L20S...AND SLOWLY RISE.

BY TUE MORNING...THE LATEST GEFS MSLP MEAN HAS A SFC CYCLONE OVER
THE CAROLINAS.  THE LATEST WPC DAY 5 HAS IT ON THE NC/SC BORDER.  IT
IS GOING TO TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE THE COLD AIR SCOURS OUT...MUCH OF
THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOWFALL...BUT A STRENGTHENING H850
LLJ OF 50-70 KTS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AND TRANSITION SNOW TO
MIXED PCPN/RAIN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE TUE. THE
SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES /+V-COMPONENT OF THE WIND/ INCREASE TO 1 TO
3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. PWATS ARE ABOVE NORMAL. THE QUESTION
REMAINS WHERE THE CYCLONE TRACKS.  THE LATEST ECMWF IS VERY
PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE H500 NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH CAPTURING THE
CYCLONE...AND ALLOWING IT TO TRACK WELL WEST OF THE REGION OVER W-
CNTRL NY. THIS WOULD BE A WARM SOLUTION WITH WET...AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. THE GFS/CAN GGEM ARE FURTHER EAST HAVING THE CYCLONE
TRACK EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY /12Z GFS/ OR EAST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY /12Z CAN GGEM AND 12Z GEFS MEAN/. THE TRACK WILL PLAY A
BIG ROLE ON THE PTYPE.  OUR FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AND WPC...WHICH ALLOWS FOR A TRANSITION TO RAIN
OVER MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE SRN DACKS.  SOME
SLEET OR FZRA MAY BE POSSIBLE TOO...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
ALY.  TOTAL QPF MAY EXCEED AN INCH OR MORE ON TUE.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE U30S TO L40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST...AND U20S TO M30S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...TRICKY FCST CONTINUES HINGING ON THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM.  THE PCPN COULD QUICKLY TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW TUE
NIGHT...IF THE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY.  SOME HVY WET
SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE.  OUR FCST REFLECTS A RAIN TO SNOW
TRANSITION...AS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT KICKS IN.  ADDITIONAL HVY QPF
IS POSSIBLE.  TOTAL QPF MAY BE IN THE INCH PLUS RANGE ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE FCST AREA.  OVERALL...WPC GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A 1-3 INCH
QPF EVENT IS POSSIBLE.  IF THE HVY RAINFALL MATERIALIZES...IT MAY
CAUSE FLOODING ON THE FROZEN  GROUND.  A MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IS
SHAPING UP MON NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK.  MID AND UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO WED.  LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO L30S NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND M30S TO AROUND 40F FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE
ONTARIO...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THU WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR MID-FEB /5-10 DEGS/. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO L20S /FEW SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS/...AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO L30S.

OVERALL...TEMPS WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE STRETCH WITH
PCPN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS
EVENING...RESULTING IN CONTINUED BKN CIGS IN VFR RANGE AND WIDELY
SCATTERED -SHSN. WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT KALB/KPSF DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING...HOWEVER KPSF IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE
OCCASIONAL -SHSN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. ANY -SHSN SHOULD END THIS
EVENING...WITH CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY DECREASING AS A SMALL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA.

WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30
KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY
DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTON`S BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SN. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OTHER THAN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY...LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. HOWEVER...AS A
BITTER COLD AIR MASS ENCOMPASSES THE REGION...ICE COVER ON
RIVERS/LAKES WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS
THIS WEEKEND.

THEN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-
     064>066-083-084.
MA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/11
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...KL/11




000
FXUS61 KBTV 112331
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
631 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL
TRACK EASTWARD WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST...SKIES WILL
BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. IT WILL BE COLD WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT
VALLEYS...AND GENERALLY ZERO TO 10 BELOW ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND ARCTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SHOWERS OR SQUALLS ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE WINTER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MONDAY...WITH A STORM SYSTEM
BRINGING MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 631 PM EST THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR
TONIGHT. DID INCREASE POPS AND SKY COVER SLIGHTLY TO ACCT FOR
CURRENT FLURRY/SHSN ACTIVITY, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE A RESULT OF THE
WARM LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATERS WHERE LAKE INDUCED CAPE IS AVERAGING
AROUND 700 J/KG. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO ABOUT AN
INCH ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. FROUDE DATA INDICATING BLOCKED FLOW DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ACT TO SLOW CLEARING PROCESS SOMEWHAT DESPITE
WEAK BUBBLE HIGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. LOW TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY APPEAR ON TRACK THOUGH DID LOWER HOURLY READINGS A BIT
AS VALUES HAVE FALLEN A BIT QUICKER THAN EARLIER INDICATIONS. HAVE
A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
COMPACT MID-LEVEL VORT EVIDENT IN IR AND VIS IMAGERY ACROSS THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL SHIFT EWD ALONG THE INTL BORDER AND SHIFT
EAST OF VT BY 06Z. LOOKING AT JUST A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THIS FEATURE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AIDED BY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES (IN LOW-LEVEL CAA REGIME) AND WLY 850MB FLOW OF 15-20KTS
PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREENS. ANY
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR LESS...MAINLY CONFINED TO
AREAS OF OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT
WITH CLEARING SKIES AS NARROW SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FROM THE
WEST AFTER 06Z...CRESTING ACROSS VT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. CORE OF
COLDEST 850MB TEMPS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS EVENING...GENERALLY -24C
TO -26C. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THIN LAYER OF SNOW COVER
WILL AID IN RADIATIVE COOLING...ESPECIALLY LATE WITH CLEARING AND
DIMINISHING WIND. LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE FOR
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND AROUND SPRINGFIELD VT...AND GENERALLY
ZERO TO -10F ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT: SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER VORT DIGS ESEWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS ALLOWS
SFC-850MB FLOW TO BACK AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. LOW-LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES FROM LAKE ONTARIO BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS INTO
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...LIKELY STARTING AROUND 14-15Z FRIDAY PER
BTV LOCAL WRF RUNS. PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE
CONFINED TO ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WITH VARIABLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND WEAK S-SW FLOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE
BRIEFLY AUGMENTED BY LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE AS ARCTIC BNDRY SWEEPS INTO NRN NY BETWEEN
02-05Z...AND ACROSS VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD SEE POTENTIAL SNOW
SQUALLS ALONG THE BNDRY AS IT MOVES ACROSS ENTIRE CWA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW END BEHIND
ARCTIC BNDRY AS MEAN FLOW VEERS RAPIDLY FROM SW-NW.

WILL BE REPLACING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WITH A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY THIS AFTN FOR SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY 14Z FRIDAY
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY TO COVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY
3-6". WILL PROBABLY SEE A COUPLE OF COMMUNITIES IN EXCESS OF 6"
SNOWFALL AROUND FINE, NY...BUT ANTICIPATE THAT WILL BE ISOLD GIVEN
TRANSITIONAL NATURE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
BACKS AND THEN QUICKLY VEERS WITH FROPA. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE A
DUSTING TO 2" FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SNOW
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALL ACTIVITY. SNOW RATIOS GENERALLY 20:1
TO 25:1 GIVEN VERY COLD AIR MASS...AND NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS (ALSO CONSIDERING PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT TRAFFIC).

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY GENERALLY GENERALLY TEENS TO LOWER
20S. STRONG CAA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN TO 5 TO 10
BELOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...INCLUDING WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30 BELOW (SEE FORTHCOMING
SHORT-TERM FORECAST SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON DANGEROUSLY LOW
WIND CHILLS FOR THE WEEKEND). LOWS ACROSS VERMONT AND THE NY SIDE
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY ZERO TO +7F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EST THURSDAY...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
THE WAKE OF STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH MAXES OCCURRING IN THE MORNING IN THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NY...AND THE
POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD.
MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
AS DEPARTING SURFACE LOW MOVES NEWD AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
MID-WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE
WITH GUSTS 15-25KTS POSSIBLE. COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO -30C TO
-25C EARLY SUNDAY. THIS COLD FRIGID AIR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
AND WINDS SUBSIDE WHILE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE ALOFT. AIR
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO...RANGING FROM
NEGATIVE TEENS TO NEGATIVE 20S. SUNDAY WILL SEE MAX TEMPERATURES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

PRECIPITATION-WISE...SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WITH FROUDE NUMBERS SHOWING SLOW MOVING/BLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS FOR SATURDAY WITH A
DRYING TREND THEREAFTER. WITH LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPERATURES
STILL IN THE MID 30S, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STEAM CLOUDS DEVELOPING
IN COLDER AIR AND POSSIBLE TEA KETTLE TYPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EST THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT.
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP
MODERATE TEMPERATURES MONDAY...WITH MAXES REACHING THE 20S.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE FROM DIGGING 500MB TROUGH
THAT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHILE
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TRACK OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE THAT DEVELOPS,
EXPECT LOW TO BEGIN BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN FROM THE SOUTH ON
TUESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF CURRENTLY BRING SIGNIFICANT WARMING TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND RESULT IN ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO TRANSITION
TO RAIN LATE TUESDAY. BUT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, COLD
AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED. MULTIPLE VORTICES IN 500MB TROUGH MAY KEEP
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO COASTAL CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...FEW/ISOLD -SHSN WITH PERIODS OF HIR TRRN
OBSCD THROUGH THIS EVENING. CARRIED VCSH FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT
MPV/RUT/MSS/SLK BASED ON RADAR AND OBSERVATION TRENDS...BUT
GENERALLY LOOKING AT VFR VSBY WITH JUST BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN
PASSING SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z OR SO. MVFR CIGS (2-3 KFT)
GENERALLY LIMITED TO SLK...BUT BRIEFLY POSSIBLE FOR MPV/MSS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. GENERALLY VFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL BEGIN TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS RETURN AT SLK WITH -SHSN
POSSIBLE AFTER 17Z ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW FROM LAKE
ONTARIO AND FRINGE IMPACT FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS. WINDS
BRIEFLY GUSTY (20-25KTS) THRU EARLY EVENING...THEN GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10KTS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LIGHT IFR SNOW AT SLK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
SNOW SQUALLS BRIEFLY POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT 02-05Z ACROSS NRN NY
AND 05-09Z ACROSS VT AS ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THRU...WITH VSBY
BRIEFLY LESS THAN 1 MILE. MODEST IMPACT TO AIRPORT GROUND
OPERATIONS WITH DUSTING TO 2" SNOWFALL PSBL. GENERALLY VFR AFTER
12Z SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25KT
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTN AND EVE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ029-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/JMG
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 112331
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
631 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL
TRACK EASTWARD WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST...SKIES WILL
BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. IT WILL BE COLD WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT
VALLEYS...AND GENERALLY ZERO TO 10 BELOW ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND ARCTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SHOWERS OR SQUALLS ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE WINTER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MONDAY...WITH A STORM SYSTEM
BRINGING MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 631 PM EST THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR
TONIGHT. DID INCREASE POPS AND SKY COVER SLIGHTLY TO ACCT FOR
CURRENT FLURRY/SHSN ACTIVITY, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE A RESULT OF THE
WARM LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATERS WHERE LAKE INDUCED CAPE IS AVERAGING
AROUND 700 J/KG. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO ABOUT AN
INCH ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. FROUDE DATA INDICATING BLOCKED FLOW DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ACT TO SLOW CLEARING PROCESS SOMEWHAT DESPITE
WEAK BUBBLE HIGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. LOW TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY APPEAR ON TRACK THOUGH DID LOWER HOURLY READINGS A BIT
AS VALUES HAVE FALLEN A BIT QUICKER THAN EARLIER INDICATIONS. HAVE
A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
COMPACT MID-LEVEL VORT EVIDENT IN IR AND VIS IMAGERY ACROSS THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL SHIFT EWD ALONG THE INTL BORDER AND SHIFT
EAST OF VT BY 06Z. LOOKING AT JUST A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THIS FEATURE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AIDED BY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES (IN LOW-LEVEL CAA REGIME) AND WLY 850MB FLOW OF 15-20KTS
PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREENS. ANY
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR LESS...MAINLY CONFINED TO
AREAS OF OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT
WITH CLEARING SKIES AS NARROW SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FROM THE
WEST AFTER 06Z...CRESTING ACROSS VT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. CORE OF
COLDEST 850MB TEMPS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS EVENING...GENERALLY -24C
TO -26C. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THIN LAYER OF SNOW COVER
WILL AID IN RADIATIVE COOLING...ESPECIALLY LATE WITH CLEARING AND
DIMINISHING WIND. LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE FOR
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND AROUND SPRINGFIELD VT...AND GENERALLY
ZERO TO -10F ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT: SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER VORT DIGS ESEWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS ALLOWS
SFC-850MB FLOW TO BACK AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. LOW-LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES FROM LAKE ONTARIO BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS INTO
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...LIKELY STARTING AROUND 14-15Z FRIDAY PER
BTV LOCAL WRF RUNS. PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE
CONFINED TO ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WITH VARIABLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND WEAK S-SW FLOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE
BRIEFLY AUGMENTED BY LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE AS ARCTIC BNDRY SWEEPS INTO NRN NY BETWEEN
02-05Z...AND ACROSS VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD SEE POTENTIAL SNOW
SQUALLS ALONG THE BNDRY AS IT MOVES ACROSS ENTIRE CWA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW END BEHIND
ARCTIC BNDRY AS MEAN FLOW VEERS RAPIDLY FROM SW-NW.

WILL BE REPLACING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WITH A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY THIS AFTN FOR SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY 14Z FRIDAY
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY TO COVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY
3-6". WILL PROBABLY SEE A COUPLE OF COMMUNITIES IN EXCESS OF 6"
SNOWFALL AROUND FINE, NY...BUT ANTICIPATE THAT WILL BE ISOLD GIVEN
TRANSITIONAL NATURE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
BACKS AND THEN QUICKLY VEERS WITH FROPA. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE A
DUSTING TO 2" FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SNOW
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALL ACTIVITY. SNOW RATIOS GENERALLY 20:1
TO 25:1 GIVEN VERY COLD AIR MASS...AND NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS (ALSO CONSIDERING PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT TRAFFIC).

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY GENERALLY GENERALLY TEENS TO LOWER
20S. STRONG CAA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN TO 5 TO 10
BELOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...INCLUDING WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30 BELOW (SEE FORTHCOMING
SHORT-TERM FORECAST SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON DANGEROUSLY LOW
WIND CHILLS FOR THE WEEKEND). LOWS ACROSS VERMONT AND THE NY SIDE
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY ZERO TO +7F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EST THURSDAY...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
THE WAKE OF STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH MAXES OCCURRING IN THE MORNING IN THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NY...AND THE
POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD.
MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
AS DEPARTING SURFACE LOW MOVES NEWD AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
MID-WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE
WITH GUSTS 15-25KTS POSSIBLE. COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO -30C TO
-25C EARLY SUNDAY. THIS COLD FRIGID AIR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
AND WINDS SUBSIDE WHILE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE ALOFT. AIR
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO...RANGING FROM
NEGATIVE TEENS TO NEGATIVE 20S. SUNDAY WILL SEE MAX TEMPERATURES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

PRECIPITATION-WISE...SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WITH FROUDE NUMBERS SHOWING SLOW MOVING/BLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS FOR SATURDAY WITH A
DRYING TREND THEREAFTER. WITH LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPERATURES
STILL IN THE MID 30S, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STEAM CLOUDS DEVELOPING
IN COLDER AIR AND POSSIBLE TEA KETTLE TYPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EST THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT.
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP
MODERATE TEMPERATURES MONDAY...WITH MAXES REACHING THE 20S.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE FROM DIGGING 500MB TROUGH
THAT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHILE
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TRACK OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE THAT DEVELOPS,
EXPECT LOW TO BEGIN BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN FROM THE SOUTH ON
TUESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF CURRENTLY BRING SIGNIFICANT WARMING TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND RESULT IN ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO TRANSITION
TO RAIN LATE TUESDAY. BUT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, COLD
AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED. MULTIPLE VORTICES IN 500MB TROUGH MAY KEEP
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO COASTAL CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...FEW/ISOLD -SHSN WITH PERIODS OF HIR TRRN
OBSCD THROUGH THIS EVENING. CARRIED VCSH FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT
MPV/RUT/MSS/SLK BASED ON RADAR AND OBSERVATION TRENDS...BUT
GENERALLY LOOKING AT VFR VSBY WITH JUST BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN
PASSING SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z OR SO. MVFR CIGS (2-3 KFT)
GENERALLY LIMITED TO SLK...BUT BRIEFLY POSSIBLE FOR MPV/MSS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. GENERALLY VFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL BEGIN TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS RETURN AT SLK WITH -SHSN
POSSIBLE AFTER 17Z ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW FROM LAKE
ONTARIO AND FRINGE IMPACT FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS. WINDS
BRIEFLY GUSTY (20-25KTS) THRU EARLY EVENING...THEN GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10KTS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LIGHT IFR SNOW AT SLK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
SNOW SQUALLS BRIEFLY POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT 02-05Z ACROSS NRN NY
AND 05-09Z ACROSS VT AS ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THRU...WITH VSBY
BRIEFLY LESS THAN 1 MILE. MODEST IMPACT TO AIRPORT GROUND
OPERATIONS WITH DUSTING TO 2" SNOWFALL PSBL. GENERALLY VFR AFTER
12Z SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25KT
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTN AND EVE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ029-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/JMG
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 112331
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
631 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL
TRACK EASTWARD WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST...SKIES WILL
BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. IT WILL BE COLD WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT
VALLEYS...AND GENERALLY ZERO TO 10 BELOW ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND ARCTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SHOWERS OR SQUALLS ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE WINTER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MONDAY...WITH A STORM SYSTEM
BRINGING MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 631 PM EST THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR
TONIGHT. DID INCREASE POPS AND SKY COVER SLIGHTLY TO ACCT FOR
CURRENT FLURRY/SHSN ACTIVITY, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE A RESULT OF THE
WARM LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATERS WHERE LAKE INDUCED CAPE IS AVERAGING
AROUND 700 J/KG. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO ABOUT AN
INCH ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. FROUDE DATA INDICATING BLOCKED FLOW DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ACT TO SLOW CLEARING PROCESS SOMEWHAT DESPITE
WEAK BUBBLE HIGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. LOW TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY APPEAR ON TRACK THOUGH DID LOWER HOURLY READINGS A BIT
AS VALUES HAVE FALLEN A BIT QUICKER THAN EARLIER INDICATIONS. HAVE
A GREAT EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
COMPACT MID-LEVEL VORT EVIDENT IN IR AND VIS IMAGERY ACROSS THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL SHIFT EWD ALONG THE INTL BORDER AND SHIFT
EAST OF VT BY 06Z. LOOKING AT JUST A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THIS FEATURE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AIDED BY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES (IN LOW-LEVEL CAA REGIME) AND WLY 850MB FLOW OF 15-20KTS
PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND NRN GREENS. ANY
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR LESS...MAINLY CONFINED TO
AREAS OF OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT
WITH CLEARING SKIES AS NARROW SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FROM THE
WEST AFTER 06Z...CRESTING ACROSS VT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. CORE OF
COLDEST 850MB TEMPS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS EVENING...GENERALLY -24C
TO -26C. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THIN LAYER OF SNOW COVER
WILL AID IN RADIATIVE COOLING...ESPECIALLY LATE WITH CLEARING AND
DIMINISHING WIND. LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE FOR
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND AROUND SPRINGFIELD VT...AND GENERALLY
ZERO TO -10F ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT: SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER VORT DIGS ESEWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS ALLOWS
SFC-850MB FLOW TO BACK AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. LOW-LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES FROM LAKE ONTARIO BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS INTO
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...LIKELY STARTING AROUND 14-15Z FRIDAY PER
BTV LOCAL WRF RUNS. PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE
CONFINED TO ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WITH VARIABLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND WEAK S-SW FLOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE
BRIEFLY AUGMENTED BY LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE AS ARCTIC BNDRY SWEEPS INTO NRN NY BETWEEN
02-05Z...AND ACROSS VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD SEE POTENTIAL SNOW
SQUALLS ALONG THE BNDRY AS IT MOVES ACROSS ENTIRE CWA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW END BEHIND
ARCTIC BNDRY AS MEAN FLOW VEERS RAPIDLY FROM SW-NW.

WILL BE REPLACING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WITH A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY THIS AFTN FOR SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY 14Z FRIDAY
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY TO COVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY
3-6". WILL PROBABLY SEE A COUPLE OF COMMUNITIES IN EXCESS OF 6"
SNOWFALL AROUND FINE, NY...BUT ANTICIPATE THAT WILL BE ISOLD GIVEN
TRANSITIONAL NATURE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
BACKS AND THEN QUICKLY VEERS WITH FROPA. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE A
DUSTING TO 2" FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SNOW
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALL ACTIVITY. SNOW RATIOS GENERALLY 20:1
TO 25:1 GIVEN VERY COLD AIR MASS...AND NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS (ALSO CONSIDERING PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT TRAFFIC).

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY GENERALLY GENERALLY TEENS TO LOWER
20S. STRONG CAA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN TO 5 TO 10
BELOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...INCLUDING WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30 BELOW (SEE FORTHCOMING
SHORT-TERM FORECAST SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON DANGEROUSLY LOW
WIND CHILLS FOR THE WEEKEND). LOWS ACROSS VERMONT AND THE NY SIDE
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY ZERO TO +7F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EST THURSDAY...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
THE WAKE OF STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH MAXES OCCURRING IN THE MORNING IN THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NY...AND THE
POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD.
MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
AS DEPARTING SURFACE LOW MOVES NEWD AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
MID-WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE
WITH GUSTS 15-25KTS POSSIBLE. COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO -30C TO
-25C EARLY SUNDAY. THIS COLD FRIGID AIR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
AND WINDS SUBSIDE WHILE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE ALOFT. AIR
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO...RANGING FROM
NEGATIVE TEENS TO NEGATIVE 20S. SUNDAY WILL SEE MAX TEMPERATURES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

PRECIPITATION-WISE...SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WITH FROUDE NUMBERS SHOWING SLOW MOVING/BLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS FOR SATURDAY WITH A
DRYING TREND THEREAFTER. WITH LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPERATURES
STILL IN THE MID 30S, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STEAM CLOUDS DEVELOPING
IN COLDER AIR AND POSSIBLE TEA KETTLE TYPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EST THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT.
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP
MODERATE TEMPERATURES MONDAY...WITH MAXES REACHING THE 20S.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE FROM DIGGING 500MB TROUGH
THAT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHILE
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TRACK OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE THAT DEVELOPS,
EXPECT LOW TO BEGIN BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN FROM THE SOUTH ON
TUESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF CURRENTLY BRING SIGNIFICANT WARMING TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND RESULT IN ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO TRANSITION
TO RAIN LATE TUESDAY. BUT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, COLD
AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED. MULTIPLE VORTICES IN 500MB TROUGH MAY KEEP
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO COASTAL CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...FEW/ISOLD -SHSN WITH PERIODS OF HIR TRRN
OBSCD THROUGH THIS EVENING. CARRIED VCSH FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT
MPV/RUT/MSS/SLK BASED ON RADAR AND OBSERVATION TRENDS...BUT
GENERALLY LOOKING AT VFR VSBY WITH JUST BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN
PASSING SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z OR SO. MVFR CIGS (2-3 KFT)
GENERALLY LIMITED TO SLK...BUT BRIEFLY POSSIBLE FOR MPV/MSS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. GENERALLY VFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL BEGIN TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS RETURN AT SLK WITH -SHSN
POSSIBLE AFTER 17Z ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW FROM LAKE
ONTARIO AND FRINGE IMPACT FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS. WINDS
BRIEFLY GUSTY (20-25KTS) THRU EARLY EVENING...THEN GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10KTS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LIGHT IFR SNOW AT SLK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
SNOW SQUALLS BRIEFLY POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT 02-05Z ACROSS NRN NY
AND 05-09Z ACROSS VT AS ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THRU...WITH VSBY
BRIEFLY LESS THAN 1 MILE. MODEST IMPACT TO AIRPORT GROUND
OPERATIONS WITH DUSTING TO 2" SNOWFALL PSBL. GENERALLY VFR AFTER
12Z SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25KT
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTN AND EVE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ029-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/JMG
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KALY 112147
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
447 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES ENDING THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST FOR
SOUTHERN HERKIMER CO...

AS OF 430 PM EST...A SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION. THE
ATTENDANT COLD POOL ALOFT WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS NEARBY...AND
HAS INDUCED WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...AND AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MOST NUMEROUS AND PERSISTENT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SCHOHARIE CO/EASTERN CATSKILLS...AND ALSO SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA. IN VALLEY AREAS...MAINLY FLURRIES HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LINGERING FILAMENTS OF
SNOWBANDS EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN HERKIMER CO.

ALSO...DEEP MIXING HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME WIND GUSTS TO REACH AROUND
45 MPH...ESP WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES. THESE GUSTS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND 8 PM...BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING.
EVENTUALLY...AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION...WINDS SHOULD BECOME MUCH LIGHTER ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS
THE REGION CLOSER TO...AND ESPECIALLY JUST AFTER SUNSET...BUT
COULD LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN HERKIMER CO WHERE BETTER LAKE
CONNECTION REMAINS. THIS SHOULD ALSO SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING.
UNTIL IT DOES...AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW COULD
OCCUR...WHICH COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS...WILL ALSO CREATE AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY IN TACT FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 6 PM. ALSO...AN ADDITIONAL
1-2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA.

LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...EXCEPT
FOR LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WHERE SOME
FLURRIES COULD ALSO REMAIN.

TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH SOME SUBZERO MINS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...AND
POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AS THE WIND MAY
BRIEFLY TREND TO CALM.

BEFORE WINDS DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD DIP INTO THE -5 TO -15 RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...

...WIND CHILL WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ALL AREAS...

FRIDAY...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...PROVIDING SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY INDUCE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO AT TIMES IN
THE MORNING...BEFORE THE FLOW BACKS FURTHER AND ALLOWS SNOW
SHOWERS TO FOCUS MAINLY NORTH OF THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD WARM
INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER/MID 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS. BEFORE THIS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THE COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AND ACTUAL
SNOWBANDS WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER/NW
HAMILTON COS BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
SNOWBAND WILL BE FAIRLY MIGRATORY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MERGES AND PUSHES IT
SOUTHWARD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVELS OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 28 FRIDAY
EVENING...BEFORE ANY SNOWBAND SHIFTS SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT. AT
THIS TIME...NO HEADLINES...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
ADVISORIES IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FURTHER FOR MODERATE OR
GREATER SNOWFALL AMTS ACROSS THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD FALL
QUICKLY BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS...EXCEPT FOR ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS BITTERLY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
DRIVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC
FRONT. SAT TEMPS MAY FALL THROUGH THE DAY...AFTER INITIAL MAXES OF
5-10 ABOVE ZERO IN VALLEYS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST INTO THE 30-45
MPH RANGE...OR EVEN HIGHER SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEN...MIN TEMPS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL WELL BELOW ZERO IN ALL AREAS...WITH -10
TO -20 LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AND
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. COMBINED WITH BRISK WINDS...EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES TO
FALL INTO THE -20 TO -35 RANGE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND -35 TO
-45 RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS SAT NT/SUN AM...COLDEST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT HAS BEEN AN
EXCEPTIONALLY WARM WINTER THUS FAR...THE IMPACTS OF THIS BITTER
COLD OUTBREAK WILL BE EVEN MORE DANGEROUS AND DOWNRIGHT LIFE
THREATENING. PLEASE REFER TO OUR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS/SPS/
AND/OR PNS/PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS/ FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
AND COLD WEATHER SAFETY TIPS DURING THIS EXTREME COLD OUTBREAK.
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY RECOVER SLIGHTLY TO SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...BUT WITH LESS WIND BY LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS ANY SNOW...SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD POOL
PASSING NEARBY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE BRUNT OF ANY MORE
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WEST OF OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A COLD START TO THE WEEK...BUT THEN A
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY
PCPN...AND WINDY CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IMPACTING
THE REGION...AS THE SFC ANTICYCLONE SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO CALM.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY
START TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO
10 BELOW...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS WHERE SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS ARE POSSIBLE...AND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ACROSS NW CT...THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE SRN TACONICS.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
WARM FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE
SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING.  SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY REACH LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
LATE IN THE DAY.  CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THESE AREAS.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMS WILL ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF AN INCH OR LESS.  HIGHS WILL STILL
BE BELOW NORMAL BY ABOUT 10 DEGS...AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR TO SCOUR OUT.  HIGHS FROM THE SUPERBLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS TO
AROUND 20F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...GOOD CONSENSUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
DETERMINISTIC...ENSEMBLE...AND WPC GUIDANCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT.  AN H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE TURNING NEGATIVELY
TITLED...AND SOME NRN STREAM ENERGY MAY PHASE WITH THE SRN STREAM OF
THE UPPER JET.  A MORE PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT WILL BE EXTENDING N/NE
OF THE SFC CYCLONE.  AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL
CONTINUE OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  POPS WERE KEPT IN THE
HIGH CHC/LIKELY CATEGORY MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.  THE
STRONG LIFT...AND VERTICAL THERMO PROFILES/CRITICAL PARTIAL
THICKNESSES FAVOR SNOW FOR THE PTYPE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF A FEW INCHES AT THIS
POINT. LOWS MAY START OUT IN THE TEENS AND L20S...AND SLOWLY RISE.

BY TUE MORNING...THE LATEST GEFS MSLP MEAN HAS A SFC CYCLONE OVER
THE CAROLINAS.  THE LATEST WPC DAY 5 HAS IT ON THE NC/SC BORDER.  IT
IS GOING TO TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE THE COLD AIR SCOURS OUT...MUCH OF
THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOWFALL...BUT A STRENGTHENING H850
LLJ OF 50-70 KTS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AND TRANSITION SNOW TO
MIXED PCPN/RAIN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE TUE. THE
SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES /+V-COMPONENT OF THE WIND/ INCREASE TO 1 TO
3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. PWATS ARE ABOVE NORMAL. THE QUESTION
REMAINS WHERE THE CYCLONE TRACKS.  THE LATEST ECMWF IS VERY
PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE H500 NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH CAPTURING THE
CYCLONE...AND ALLOWING IT TO TRACK WELL WEST OF THE REGION OVER W-
CNTRL NY. THIS WOULD BE A WARM SOLUTION WITH WET...AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. THE GFS/CAN GGEM ARE FURTHER EAST HAVING THE CYCLONE
TRACK EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY /12Z GFS/ OR EAST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY /12Z CAN GGEM AND 12Z GEFS MEAN/. THE TRACK WILL PLAY A
BIG ROLE ON THE PTYPE.  OUR FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AND WPC...WHICH ALLOWS FOR A TRANSITION TO RAIN
OVER MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE SRN DACKS.  SOME
SLEET OR FZRA MAY BE POSSIBLE TOO...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
ALY.  TOTAL QPF MAY EXCEED AN INCH OR MORE ON TUE.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE U30S TO L40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST...AND U20S TO M30S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...TRICKY FCST CONTINUES HINGING ON THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM.  THE PCPN COULD QUICKLY TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW TUE
NIGHT...IF THE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY.  SOME HVY WET
SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE.  OUR FCST REFLECTS A RAIN TO SNOW
TRANSITION...AS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT KICKS IN.  ADDITIONAL HVY QPF
IS POSSIBLE.  TOTAL QPF MAY BE IN THE INCH PLUS RANGE ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE FCST AREA.  OVERALL...WPC GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A 1-3 INCH
QPF EVENT IS POSSIBLE.  IF THE HVY RAINFALL MATERIALIZES...IT MAY
CAUSE FLOODING ON THE FROZEN  GROUND.  A MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IS
SHAPING UP MON NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK.  MID AND UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO WED.  LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO L30S NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND M30S TO AROUND 40F FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE
ONTARIO...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THU WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR MID-FEB /5-10 DEGS/. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO L20S /FEW SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS/...AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO L30S.

OVERALL...TEMPS WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE STRETCH WITH
PCPN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS
EVENING...RESULTING IN CONTINUED BKN CIGS IN VFR RANGE AND WIDELY
SCATTERED -SHSN. WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT KALB/KPSF DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING...HOWEVER KPSF IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE
OCCASIONAL -SHSN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. ANY -SHSN SHOULD END THIS
EVENING...WITH CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY DECREASING AS A SMALL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA.

WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30
KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY
DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTON`S BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SN. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OTHER THAN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY...LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. HOWEVER...AS A
BITTER COLD AIR MASS ENCOMPASSES THE REGION...ICE COVER ON
RIVERS/LAKES WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS
THIS WEEKEND.

THEN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-
     064>066-083-084.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ038.
MA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/11
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...KL



000
FXUS61 KALY 112147
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
447 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES ENDING THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST FOR
SOUTHERN HERKIMER CO...

AS OF 430 PM EST...A SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION. THE
ATTENDANT COLD POOL ALOFT WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS NEARBY...AND
HAS INDUCED WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...AND AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MOST NUMEROUS AND PERSISTENT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SCHOHARIE CO/EASTERN CATSKILLS...AND ALSO SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA. IN VALLEY AREAS...MAINLY FLURRIES HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LINGERING FILAMENTS OF
SNOWBANDS EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN HERKIMER CO.

ALSO...DEEP MIXING HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME WIND GUSTS TO REACH AROUND
45 MPH...ESP WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES. THESE GUSTS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND 8 PM...BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING.
EVENTUALLY...AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION...WINDS SHOULD BECOME MUCH LIGHTER ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS
THE REGION CLOSER TO...AND ESPECIALLY JUST AFTER SUNSET...BUT
COULD LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN HERKIMER CO WHERE BETTER LAKE
CONNECTION REMAINS. THIS SHOULD ALSO SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING.
UNTIL IT DOES...AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW COULD
OCCUR...WHICH COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS...WILL ALSO CREATE AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY IN TACT FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 6 PM. ALSO...AN ADDITIONAL
1-2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA.

LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...EXCEPT
FOR LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WHERE SOME
FLURRIES COULD ALSO REMAIN.

TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH SOME SUBZERO MINS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...AND
POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AS THE WIND MAY
BRIEFLY TREND TO CALM.

BEFORE WINDS DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD DIP INTO THE -5 TO -15 RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...

...WIND CHILL WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ALL AREAS...

FRIDAY...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...PROVIDING SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY INDUCE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO AT TIMES IN
THE MORNING...BEFORE THE FLOW BACKS FURTHER AND ALLOWS SNOW
SHOWERS TO FOCUS MAINLY NORTH OF THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD WARM
INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER/MID 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS. BEFORE THIS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THE COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AND ACTUAL
SNOWBANDS WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER/NW
HAMILTON COS BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
SNOWBAND WILL BE FAIRLY MIGRATORY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MERGES AND PUSHES IT
SOUTHWARD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVELS OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 28 FRIDAY
EVENING...BEFORE ANY SNOWBAND SHIFTS SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT. AT
THIS TIME...NO HEADLINES...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
ADVISORIES IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FURTHER FOR MODERATE OR
GREATER SNOWFALL AMTS ACROSS THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD FALL
QUICKLY BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS...EXCEPT FOR ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS BITTERLY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
DRIVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC
FRONT. SAT TEMPS MAY FALL THROUGH THE DAY...AFTER INITIAL MAXES OF
5-10 ABOVE ZERO IN VALLEYS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST INTO THE 30-45
MPH RANGE...OR EVEN HIGHER SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEN...MIN TEMPS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL WELL BELOW ZERO IN ALL AREAS...WITH -10
TO -20 LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AND
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. COMBINED WITH BRISK WINDS...EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES TO
FALL INTO THE -20 TO -35 RANGE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND -35 TO
-45 RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS SAT NT/SUN AM...COLDEST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT HAS BEEN AN
EXCEPTIONALLY WARM WINTER THUS FAR...THE IMPACTS OF THIS BITTER
COLD OUTBREAK WILL BE EVEN MORE DANGEROUS AND DOWNRIGHT LIFE
THREATENING. PLEASE REFER TO OUR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS/SPS/
AND/OR PNS/PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS/ FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
AND COLD WEATHER SAFETY TIPS DURING THIS EXTREME COLD OUTBREAK.
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY RECOVER SLIGHTLY TO SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...BUT WITH LESS WIND BY LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS ANY SNOW...SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD POOL
PASSING NEARBY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE BRUNT OF ANY MORE
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WEST OF OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A COLD START TO THE WEEK...BUT THEN A
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY
PCPN...AND WINDY CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IMPACTING
THE REGION...AS THE SFC ANTICYCLONE SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO CALM.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY
START TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO
10 BELOW...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS WHERE SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS ARE POSSIBLE...AND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ACROSS NW CT...THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE SRN TACONICS.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
WARM FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE
SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING.  SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY REACH LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
LATE IN THE DAY.  CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THESE AREAS.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMS WILL ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF AN INCH OR LESS.  HIGHS WILL STILL
BE BELOW NORMAL BY ABOUT 10 DEGS...AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR TO SCOUR OUT.  HIGHS FROM THE SUPERBLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS TO
AROUND 20F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...GOOD CONSENSUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
DETERMINISTIC...ENSEMBLE...AND WPC GUIDANCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT.  AN H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE TURNING NEGATIVELY
TITLED...AND SOME NRN STREAM ENERGY MAY PHASE WITH THE SRN STREAM OF
THE UPPER JET.  A MORE PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT WILL BE EXTENDING N/NE
OF THE SFC CYCLONE.  AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL
CONTINUE OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  POPS WERE KEPT IN THE
HIGH CHC/LIKELY CATEGORY MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.  THE
STRONG LIFT...AND VERTICAL THERMO PROFILES/CRITICAL PARTIAL
THICKNESSES FAVOR SNOW FOR THE PTYPE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF A FEW INCHES AT THIS
POINT. LOWS MAY START OUT IN THE TEENS AND L20S...AND SLOWLY RISE.

BY TUE MORNING...THE LATEST GEFS MSLP MEAN HAS A SFC CYCLONE OVER
THE CAROLINAS.  THE LATEST WPC DAY 5 HAS IT ON THE NC/SC BORDER.  IT
IS GOING TO TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE THE COLD AIR SCOURS OUT...MUCH OF
THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOWFALL...BUT A STRENGTHENING H850
LLJ OF 50-70 KTS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AND TRANSITION SNOW TO
MIXED PCPN/RAIN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE TUE. THE
SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES /+V-COMPONENT OF THE WIND/ INCREASE TO 1 TO
3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. PWATS ARE ABOVE NORMAL. THE QUESTION
REMAINS WHERE THE CYCLONE TRACKS.  THE LATEST ECMWF IS VERY
PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE H500 NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH CAPTURING THE
CYCLONE...AND ALLOWING IT TO TRACK WELL WEST OF THE REGION OVER W-
CNTRL NY. THIS WOULD BE A WARM SOLUTION WITH WET...AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. THE GFS/CAN GGEM ARE FURTHER EAST HAVING THE CYCLONE
TRACK EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY /12Z GFS/ OR EAST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY /12Z CAN GGEM AND 12Z GEFS MEAN/. THE TRACK WILL PLAY A
BIG ROLE ON THE PTYPE.  OUR FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AND WPC...WHICH ALLOWS FOR A TRANSITION TO RAIN
OVER MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE SRN DACKS.  SOME
SLEET OR FZRA MAY BE POSSIBLE TOO...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
ALY.  TOTAL QPF MAY EXCEED AN INCH OR MORE ON TUE.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE U30S TO L40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST...AND U20S TO M30S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...TRICKY FCST CONTINUES HINGING ON THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM.  THE PCPN COULD QUICKLY TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW TUE
NIGHT...IF THE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY.  SOME HVY WET
SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE.  OUR FCST REFLECTS A RAIN TO SNOW
TRANSITION...AS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT KICKS IN.  ADDITIONAL HVY QPF
IS POSSIBLE.  TOTAL QPF MAY BE IN THE INCH PLUS RANGE ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE FCST AREA.  OVERALL...WPC GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A 1-3 INCH
QPF EVENT IS POSSIBLE.  IF THE HVY RAINFALL MATERIALIZES...IT MAY
CAUSE FLOODING ON THE FROZEN  GROUND.  A MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IS
SHAPING UP MON NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK.  MID AND UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO WED.  LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO L30S NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND M30S TO AROUND 40F FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE
ONTARIO...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THU WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR MID-FEB /5-10 DEGS/. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO L20S /FEW SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS/...AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO L30S.

OVERALL...TEMPS WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE STRETCH WITH
PCPN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS
EVENING...RESULTING IN CONTINUED BKN CIGS IN VFR RANGE AND WIDELY
SCATTERED -SHSN. WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT KALB/KPSF DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING...HOWEVER KPSF IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE
OCCASIONAL -SHSN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. ANY -SHSN SHOULD END THIS
EVENING...WITH CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY DECREASING AS A SMALL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA.

WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30
KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY
DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTON`S BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SN. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OTHER THAN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY...LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. HOWEVER...AS A
BITTER COLD AIR MASS ENCOMPASSES THE REGION...ICE COVER ON
RIVERS/LAKES WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS
THIS WEEKEND.

THEN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-
     064>066-083-084.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ038.
MA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/11
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...KL




000
FXUS61 KALY 112147
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
447 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES ENDING THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST FOR
SOUTHERN HERKIMER CO...

AS OF 430 PM EST...A SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION. THE
ATTENDANT COLD POOL ALOFT WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS NEARBY...AND
HAS INDUCED WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...AND AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...MOST NUMEROUS AND PERSISTENT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SCHOHARIE CO/EASTERN CATSKILLS...AND ALSO SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA. IN VALLEY AREAS...MAINLY FLURRIES HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LINGERING FILAMENTS OF
SNOWBANDS EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN HERKIMER CO.

ALSO...DEEP MIXING HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME WIND GUSTS TO REACH AROUND
45 MPH...ESP WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES. THESE GUSTS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND 8 PM...BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING.
EVENTUALLY...AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION...WINDS SHOULD BECOME MUCH LIGHTER ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS
THE REGION CLOSER TO...AND ESPECIALLY JUST AFTER SUNSET...BUT
COULD LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN HERKIMER CO WHERE BETTER LAKE
CONNECTION REMAINS. THIS SHOULD ALSO SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING.
UNTIL IT DOES...AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW COULD
OCCUR...WHICH COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS...WILL ALSO CREATE AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY IN TACT FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 6 PM. ALSO...AN ADDITIONAL
1-2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA.

LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...EXCEPT
FOR LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WHERE SOME
FLURRIES COULD ALSO REMAIN.

TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH SOME SUBZERO MINS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...AND
POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AS THE WIND MAY
BRIEFLY TREND TO CALM.

BEFORE WINDS DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD DIP INTO THE -5 TO -15 RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...

...WIND CHILL WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ALL AREAS...

FRIDAY...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...PROVIDING SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY INDUCE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO AT TIMES IN
THE MORNING...BEFORE THE FLOW BACKS FURTHER AND ALLOWS SNOW
SHOWERS TO FOCUS MAINLY NORTH OF THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD WARM
INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER/MID 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS. BEFORE THIS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THE COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AND ACTUAL
SNOWBANDS WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER/NW
HAMILTON COS BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
SNOWBAND WILL BE FAIRLY MIGRATORY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MERGES AND PUSHES IT
SOUTHWARD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVELS OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 28 FRIDAY
EVENING...BEFORE ANY SNOWBAND SHIFTS SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT. AT
THIS TIME...NO HEADLINES...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
ADVISORIES IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FURTHER FOR MODERATE OR
GREATER SNOWFALL AMTS ACROSS THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD FALL
QUICKLY BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS...EXCEPT FOR ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS BITTERLY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
DRIVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC
FRONT. SAT TEMPS MAY FALL THROUGH THE DAY...AFTER INITIAL MAXES OF
5-10 ABOVE ZERO IN VALLEYS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST INTO THE 30-45
MPH RANGE...OR EVEN HIGHER SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEN...MIN TEMPS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL WELL BELOW ZERO IN ALL AREAS...WITH -10
TO -20 LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AND
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. COMBINED WITH BRISK WINDS...EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES TO
FALL INTO THE -20 TO -35 RANGE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND -35 TO
-45 RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS SAT NT/SUN AM...COLDEST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT HAS BEEN AN
EXCEPTIONALLY WARM WINTER THUS FAR...THE IMPACTS OF THIS BITTER
COLD OUTBREAK WILL BE EVEN MORE DANGEROUS AND DOWNRIGHT LIFE
THREATENING. PLEASE REFER TO OUR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS/SPS/
AND/OR PNS/PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS/ FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
AND COLD WEATHER SAFETY TIPS DURING THIS EXTREME COLD OUTBREAK.
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY RECOVER SLIGHTLY TO SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...BUT WITH LESS WIND BY LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS ANY SNOW...SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD POOL
PASSING NEARBY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE BRUNT OF ANY MORE
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WEST OF OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A COLD START TO THE WEEK...BUT THEN A
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY
PCPN...AND WINDY CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IMPACTING
THE REGION...AS THE SFC ANTICYCLONE SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO CALM.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY
START TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO
10 BELOW...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS WHERE SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS ARE POSSIBLE...AND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ACROSS NW CT...THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE SRN TACONICS.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
WARM FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE
SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING.  SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY REACH LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
LATE IN THE DAY.  CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THESE AREAS.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMS WILL ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF AN INCH OR LESS.  HIGHS WILL STILL
BE BELOW NORMAL BY ABOUT 10 DEGS...AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR TO SCOUR OUT.  HIGHS FROM THE SUPERBLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS TO
AROUND 20F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...GOOD CONSENSUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
DETERMINISTIC...ENSEMBLE...AND WPC GUIDANCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT.  AN H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE TURNING NEGATIVELY
TITLED...AND SOME NRN STREAM ENERGY MAY PHASE WITH THE SRN STREAM OF
THE UPPER JET.  A MORE PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT WILL BE EXTENDING N/NE
OF THE SFC CYCLONE.  AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL
CONTINUE OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  POPS WERE KEPT IN THE
HIGH CHC/LIKELY CATEGORY MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.  THE
STRONG LIFT...AND VERTICAL THERMO PROFILES/CRITICAL PARTIAL
THICKNESSES FAVOR SNOW FOR THE PTYPE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF A FEW INCHES AT THIS
POINT. LOWS MAY START OUT IN THE TEENS AND L20S...AND SLOWLY RISE.

BY TUE MORNING...THE LATEST GEFS MSLP MEAN HAS A SFC CYCLONE OVER
THE CAROLINAS.  THE LATEST WPC DAY 5 HAS IT ON THE NC/SC BORDER.  IT
IS GOING TO TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE THE COLD AIR SCOURS OUT...MUCH OF
THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOWFALL...BUT A STRENGTHENING H850
LLJ OF 50-70 KTS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AND TRANSITION SNOW TO
MIXED PCPN/RAIN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE TUE. THE
SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES /+V-COMPONENT OF THE WIND/ INCREASE TO 1 TO
3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. PWATS ARE ABOVE NORMAL. THE QUESTION
REMAINS WHERE THE CYCLONE TRACKS.  THE LATEST ECMWF IS VERY
PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE H500 NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH CAPTURING THE
CYCLONE...AND ALLOWING IT TO TRACK WELL WEST OF THE REGION OVER W-
CNTRL NY. THIS WOULD BE A WARM SOLUTION WITH WET...AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. THE GFS/CAN GGEM ARE FURTHER EAST HAVING THE CYCLONE
TRACK EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY /12Z GFS/ OR EAST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY /12Z CAN GGEM AND 12Z GEFS MEAN/. THE TRACK WILL PLAY A
BIG ROLE ON THE PTYPE.  OUR FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AND WPC...WHICH ALLOWS FOR A TRANSITION TO RAIN
OVER MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE SRN DACKS.  SOME
SLEET OR FZRA MAY BE POSSIBLE TOO...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
ALY.  TOTAL QPF MAY EXCEED AN INCH OR MORE ON TUE.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE U30S TO L40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST...AND U20S TO M30S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...TRICKY FCST CONTINUES HINGING ON THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM.  THE PCPN COULD QUICKLY TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW TUE
NIGHT...IF THE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY.  SOME HVY WET
SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE.  OUR FCST REFLECTS A RAIN TO SNOW
TRANSITION...AS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT KICKS IN.  ADDITIONAL HVY QPF
IS POSSIBLE.  TOTAL QPF MAY BE IN THE INCH PLUS RANGE ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE FCST AREA.  OVERALL...WPC GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A 1-3 INCH
QPF EVENT IS POSSIBLE.  IF THE HVY RAINFALL MATERIALIZES...IT MAY
CAUSE FLOODING ON THE FROZEN  GROUND.  A MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IS
SHAPING UP MON NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK.  MID AND UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO WED.  LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO L30S NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND M30S TO AROUND 40F FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE
ONTARIO...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THU WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR MID-FEB /5-10 DEGS/. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO L20S /FEW SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS/...AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO L30S.

OVERALL...TEMPS WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE STRETCH WITH
PCPN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS
EVENING...RESULTING IN CONTINUED BKN CIGS IN VFR RANGE AND WIDELY
SCATTERED -SHSN. WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT KALB/KPSF DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING...HOWEVER KPSF IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE
OCCASIONAL -SHSN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. ANY -SHSN SHOULD END THIS
EVENING...WITH CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY DECREASING AS A SMALL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA.

WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30
KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY
DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTON`S BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SN. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OTHER THAN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY...LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. HOWEVER...AS A
BITTER COLD AIR MASS ENCOMPASSES THE REGION...ICE COVER ON
RIVERS/LAKES WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS
THIS WEEKEND.

THEN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-
     064>066-083-084.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ038.
MA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/11
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...KL




000
FXUS61 KBTV 112047
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
347 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL
TRACK EASTWARD WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST...SKIES WILL
BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. IT WILL BE COLD WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT
VALLEYS...AND GENERALLY ZERO TO 10 BELOW ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND ARCTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SHOWERS OR SQUALLS ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE WINTER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MONDAY...WITH A STORM SYSTEM
BRINGING MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 111 PM EST THURSDAY...COMPACT MID-LEVEL VORT EVIDENT IN IR
AND VIS IMAGERY ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL SHIFT EWD
ALONG THE INTL BORDER AND SHIFT EAST OF VT BY 06Z. LOOKING AT JUST
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AIDED
BY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (IN LOW-LEVEL CAA REGIME) AND WLY
850MB FLOW OF 15-20KTS PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE INTO THE ADIRONDACKS
AND NRN GREENS. ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR
LESS...MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS OF OROGRAPHIC ASCENT.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AS NARROW
SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FROM THE WEST AFTER 06Z...CRESTING
ACROSS VT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. CORE OF COLDEST 850MB TEMPS WILL BE
IN PLACE THIS EVENING...GENERALLY -24C TO -26C. SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND THIN LAYER OF SNOW COVER WILL AID IN RADIATIVE
COOLING...ESPECIALLY LATE WITH CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WIND.
LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND AROUND SPRINGFIELD VT...AND GENERALLY ZERO TO -10F ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT: SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER VORT DIGS ESEWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS ALLOWS
SFC-850MB FLOW TO BACK AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. LOW-LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES FROM LAKE ONTARIO BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS INTO
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...LIKELY STARTING AROUND 14-15Z FRIDAY PER
BTV LOCAL WRF RUNS. PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE
CONFINED TO ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WITH VARIABLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND WEAK S-SW FLOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE
BRIEFLY AUGMENTED BY LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE AS ARCTIC BNDRY SWEEPS INTO NRN NY BETWEEN
02-05Z...AND ACROSS VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD SEE POTENTIAL SNOW
SQUALLS ALONG THE BNDRY AS IT MOVES ACROSS ENTIRE CWA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW END BEHIND
ARCTIC BNDRY AS MEAN FLOW VEERS RAPIDLY FROM SW-NW.

WILL BE REPLACING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WITH A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY THIS AFTN FOR SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY 14Z FRIDAY
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY TO COVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY
3-6". WILL PROBABLY SEE A COUPLE OF COMMUNITIES IN EXCESS OF 6"
SNOWFALL AROUND FINE, NY...BUT ANTICIPATE THAT WILL BE ISOLD GIVEN
TRANSITIONAL NATURE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
BACKS AND THEN QUICKLY VEERS WITH FROPA. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE A
DUSTING TO 2" FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SNOW
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALL ACTIVITY. SNOW RATIOS GENERALLY 20:1
TO 25:1 GIVEN VERY COLD AIR MASS...AND NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS (ALSO CONSIDERING PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT TRAFFIC).

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY GENERALLY GENERALLY TEENS TO LOWER
20S. STRONG CAA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN TO 5 TO 10
BELOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...INCLUDING WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30 BELOW (SEE FORTHCOMING
SHORT-TERM FORECAST SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON DANGEROUSLY LOW
WIND CHILLS FOR THE WEEKEND). LOWS ACROSS VERMONT AND THE NY SIDE
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY ZERO TO +7F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EST THURSDAY...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
THE WAKE OF STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH MAXES OCCURRING IN THE MORNING IN THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NY...AND THE
POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD.
MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
AS DEPARTING SURFACE LOW MOVES NEWD AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
MID-WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE
WITH GUSTS 15-25KTS POSSIBLE. COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO -30C TO
-25C EARLY SUNDAY. THIS COLD FRIGID AIR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
AND WINDS SUBSIDE WHILE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE ALOFT. AIR
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO...RANGING FROM
NEGATIVE TEENS TO NEGATIVE 20S. SUNDAY WILL SEE MAX TEMPERATURES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

PRECIPITATION-WISE...SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WITH FROUDE NUMBERS SHOWING SLOW MOVING/BLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS FOR SATURDAY WITH A
DRYING TREND THEREAFTER. WITH LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPERATURES
STILL IN THE MID 30S, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STEAM CLOUDS DEVELOPING
IN COLDER AIR AND POSSIBLE TEA KETTLE TYPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EST THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT.
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP
MODERATE TEMPERATURES MONDAY...WITH MAXES REACHING THE 20S.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE FROM DIGGING 500MB TROUGH
THAT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHILE
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TRACK OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE THAT DEVELOPS,
EXPECT LOW TO BEGIN BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN FROM THE SOUTH ON
TUESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF CURRENTLY BRING SIGNIFICANT WARMING TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND RESULT IN ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO TRANSITION
TO RAIN LATE TUESDAY. BUT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, COLD
AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED. MULTIPLE VORTICES IN 500MB TROUGH MAY KEEP
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO COASTAL CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...FEW/ISOLD -SHSN WITH PERIODS OF HIR TRRN
OBSCD THROUGH THIS EVENING. CARRIED VCSH FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT
MPV/RUT/MSS/SLK BASED ON RADAR AND OBSERVATION TRENDS...BUT
GENERALLY LOOKING AT VFR VSBY WITH JUST BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN
PASSING SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z OR SO. MVFR CIGS (2-3 KFT)
GENERALLY LIMITED TO SLK...BUT BRIEFLY POSSIBLE FOR MPV/MSS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. GENERALLY VFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL BEGIN TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS RETURN AT SLK WITH -SHSN
POSSIBLE AFTER 17Z ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW FROM LAKE
ONTARIO AND FRINGE IMPACT FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS. WINDS
BRIEFLY GUSTY (20-25KTS) THRU EARLY EVENING...THEN GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10KTS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LIGHT IFR SNOW AT SLK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
SNOW SQUALLS BRIEFLY POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT 02-05Z ACROSS NRN NY
AND 05-09Z ACROSS VT AS ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THRU...WITH VSBY
BRIEFLY LESS THAN 1 MILE. MODEST IMPACT TO AIRPORT GROUND
OPERATIONS WITH DUSTING TO 2" SNOWFALL PSBL. GENERALLY VFR AFTER
12Z SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25KT
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTN AND EVE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ029-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 112047
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
347 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL
TRACK EASTWARD WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST...SKIES WILL
BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. IT WILL BE COLD WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT
VALLEYS...AND GENERALLY ZERO TO 10 BELOW ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND ARCTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SHOWERS OR SQUALLS ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE WINTER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MONDAY...WITH A STORM SYSTEM
BRINGING MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 111 PM EST THURSDAY...COMPACT MID-LEVEL VORT EVIDENT IN IR
AND VIS IMAGERY ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL SHIFT EWD
ALONG THE INTL BORDER AND SHIFT EAST OF VT BY 06Z. LOOKING AT JUST
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AIDED
BY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (IN LOW-LEVEL CAA REGIME) AND WLY
850MB FLOW OF 15-20KTS PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE INTO THE ADIRONDACKS
AND NRN GREENS. ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR
LESS...MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS OF OROGRAPHIC ASCENT.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AS NARROW
SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FROM THE WEST AFTER 06Z...CRESTING
ACROSS VT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. CORE OF COLDEST 850MB TEMPS WILL BE
IN PLACE THIS EVENING...GENERALLY -24C TO -26C. SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND THIN LAYER OF SNOW COVER WILL AID IN RADIATIVE
COOLING...ESPECIALLY LATE WITH CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WIND.
LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND AROUND SPRINGFIELD VT...AND GENERALLY ZERO TO -10F ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT: SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER VORT DIGS ESEWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS ALLOWS
SFC-850MB FLOW TO BACK AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. LOW-LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES FROM LAKE ONTARIO BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS INTO
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...LIKELY STARTING AROUND 14-15Z FRIDAY PER
BTV LOCAL WRF RUNS. PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE
CONFINED TO ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WITH VARIABLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND WEAK S-SW FLOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE
BRIEFLY AUGMENTED BY LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE AS ARCTIC BNDRY SWEEPS INTO NRN NY BETWEEN
02-05Z...AND ACROSS VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD SEE POTENTIAL SNOW
SQUALLS ALONG THE BNDRY AS IT MOVES ACROSS ENTIRE CWA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW END BEHIND
ARCTIC BNDRY AS MEAN FLOW VEERS RAPIDLY FROM SW-NW.

WILL BE REPLACING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WITH A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY THIS AFTN FOR SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY 14Z FRIDAY
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY TO COVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY
3-6". WILL PROBABLY SEE A COUPLE OF COMMUNITIES IN EXCESS OF 6"
SNOWFALL AROUND FINE, NY...BUT ANTICIPATE THAT WILL BE ISOLD GIVEN
TRANSITIONAL NATURE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
BACKS AND THEN QUICKLY VEERS WITH FROPA. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE A
DUSTING TO 2" FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SNOW
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALL ACTIVITY. SNOW RATIOS GENERALLY 20:1
TO 25:1 GIVEN VERY COLD AIR MASS...AND NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS (ALSO CONSIDERING PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT TRAFFIC).

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY GENERALLY GENERALLY TEENS TO LOWER
20S. STRONG CAA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN TO 5 TO 10
BELOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...INCLUDING WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30 BELOW (SEE FORTHCOMING
SHORT-TERM FORECAST SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON DANGEROUSLY LOW
WIND CHILLS FOR THE WEEKEND). LOWS ACROSS VERMONT AND THE NY SIDE
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY ZERO TO +7F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EST THURSDAY...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
THE WAKE OF STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH MAXES OCCURRING IN THE MORNING IN THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NY...AND THE
POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD.
MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
AS DEPARTING SURFACE LOW MOVES NEWD AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
MID-WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE
WITH GUSTS 15-25KTS POSSIBLE. COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO -30C TO
-25C EARLY SUNDAY. THIS COLD FRIGID AIR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
AND WINDS SUBSIDE WHILE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE ALOFT. AIR
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO...RANGING FROM
NEGATIVE TEENS TO NEGATIVE 20S. SUNDAY WILL SEE MAX TEMPERATURES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

PRECIPITATION-WISE...SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WITH FROUDE NUMBERS SHOWING SLOW MOVING/BLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS FOR SATURDAY WITH A
DRYING TREND THEREAFTER. WITH LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPERATURES
STILL IN THE MID 30S, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STEAM CLOUDS DEVELOPING
IN COLDER AIR AND POSSIBLE TEA KETTLE TYPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EST THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT.
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP
MODERATE TEMPERATURES MONDAY...WITH MAXES REACHING THE 20S.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE FROM DIGGING 500MB TROUGH
THAT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHILE
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TRACK OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE THAT DEVELOPS,
EXPECT LOW TO BEGIN BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN FROM THE SOUTH ON
TUESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF CURRENTLY BRING SIGNIFICANT WARMING TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND RESULT IN ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO TRANSITION
TO RAIN LATE TUESDAY. BUT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, COLD
AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED. MULTIPLE VORTICES IN 500MB TROUGH MAY KEEP
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO COASTAL CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...FEW/ISOLD -SHSN WITH PERIODS OF HIR TRRN
OBSCD THROUGH THIS EVENING. CARRIED VCSH FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT
MPV/RUT/MSS/SLK BASED ON RADAR AND OBSERVATION TRENDS...BUT
GENERALLY LOOKING AT VFR VSBY WITH JUST BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN
PASSING SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z OR SO. MVFR CIGS (2-3 KFT)
GENERALLY LIMITED TO SLK...BUT BRIEFLY POSSIBLE FOR MPV/MSS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. GENERALLY VFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL BEGIN TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS RETURN AT SLK WITH -SHSN
POSSIBLE AFTER 17Z ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW FROM LAKE
ONTARIO AND FRINGE IMPACT FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS. WINDS
BRIEFLY GUSTY (20-25KTS) THRU EARLY EVENING...THEN GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10KTS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LIGHT IFR SNOW AT SLK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
SNOW SQUALLS BRIEFLY POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT 02-05Z ACROSS NRN NY
AND 05-09Z ACROSS VT AS ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THRU...WITH VSBY
BRIEFLY LESS THAN 1 MILE. MODEST IMPACT TO AIRPORT GROUND
OPERATIONS WITH DUSTING TO 2" SNOWFALL PSBL. GENERALLY VFR AFTER
12Z SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25KT
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTN AND EVE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ029-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 112047
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
347 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL
TRACK EASTWARD WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST...SKIES WILL
BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. IT WILL BE COLD WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT
VALLEYS...AND GENERALLY ZERO TO 10 BELOW ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND ARCTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SHOWERS OR SQUALLS ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE WINTER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MONDAY...WITH A STORM SYSTEM
BRINGING MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 111 PM EST THURSDAY...COMPACT MID-LEVEL VORT EVIDENT IN IR
AND VIS IMAGERY ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL SHIFT EWD
ALONG THE INTL BORDER AND SHIFT EAST OF VT BY 06Z. LOOKING AT JUST
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AIDED
BY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (IN LOW-LEVEL CAA REGIME) AND WLY
850MB FLOW OF 15-20KTS PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE INTO THE ADIRONDACKS
AND NRN GREENS. ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR
LESS...MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS OF OROGRAPHIC ASCENT.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AS NARROW
SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FROM THE WEST AFTER 06Z...CRESTING
ACROSS VT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. CORE OF COLDEST 850MB TEMPS WILL BE
IN PLACE THIS EVENING...GENERALLY -24C TO -26C. SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND THIN LAYER OF SNOW COVER WILL AID IN RADIATIVE
COOLING...ESPECIALLY LATE WITH CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WIND.
LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND AROUND SPRINGFIELD VT...AND GENERALLY ZERO TO -10F ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT: SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER VORT DIGS ESEWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS ALLOWS
SFC-850MB FLOW TO BACK AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. LOW-LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES FROM LAKE ONTARIO BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS INTO
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...LIKELY STARTING AROUND 14-15Z FRIDAY PER
BTV LOCAL WRF RUNS. PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE
CONFINED TO ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WITH VARIABLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND WEAK S-SW FLOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE
BRIEFLY AUGMENTED BY LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE AS ARCTIC BNDRY SWEEPS INTO NRN NY BETWEEN
02-05Z...AND ACROSS VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD SEE POTENTIAL SNOW
SQUALLS ALONG THE BNDRY AS IT MOVES ACROSS ENTIRE CWA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW END BEHIND
ARCTIC BNDRY AS MEAN FLOW VEERS RAPIDLY FROM SW-NW.

WILL BE REPLACING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WITH A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY THIS AFTN FOR SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY 14Z FRIDAY
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY TO COVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY
3-6". WILL PROBABLY SEE A COUPLE OF COMMUNITIES IN EXCESS OF 6"
SNOWFALL AROUND FINE, NY...BUT ANTICIPATE THAT WILL BE ISOLD GIVEN
TRANSITIONAL NATURE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
BACKS AND THEN QUICKLY VEERS WITH FROPA. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE A
DUSTING TO 2" FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SNOW
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALL ACTIVITY. SNOW RATIOS GENERALLY 20:1
TO 25:1 GIVEN VERY COLD AIR MASS...AND NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS (ALSO CONSIDERING PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT TRAFFIC).

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY GENERALLY GENERALLY TEENS TO LOWER
20S. STRONG CAA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN TO 5 TO 10
BELOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...INCLUDING WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30 BELOW (SEE FORTHCOMING
SHORT-TERM FORECAST SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON DANGEROUSLY LOW
WIND CHILLS FOR THE WEEKEND). LOWS ACROSS VERMONT AND THE NY SIDE
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY ZERO TO +7F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EST THURSDAY...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN
THE WAKE OF STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH MAXES OCCURRING IN THE MORNING IN THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NY...AND THE
POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD.
MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
AS DEPARTING SURFACE LOW MOVES NEWD AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
MID-WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE
WITH GUSTS 15-25KTS POSSIBLE. COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO -30C TO
-25C EARLY SUNDAY. THIS COLD FRIGID AIR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
AND WINDS SUBSIDE WHILE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE ALOFT. AIR
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO...RANGING FROM
NEGATIVE TEENS TO NEGATIVE 20S. SUNDAY WILL SEE MAX TEMPERATURES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

PRECIPITATION-WISE...SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WITH FROUDE NUMBERS SHOWING SLOW MOVING/BLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS FOR SATURDAY WITH A
DRYING TREND THEREAFTER. WITH LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER TEMPERATURES
STILL IN THE MID 30S, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STEAM CLOUDS DEVELOPING
IN COLDER AIR AND POSSIBLE TEA KETTLE TYPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 347 PM EST THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT.
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP
MODERATE TEMPERATURES MONDAY...WITH MAXES REACHING THE 20S.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE FROM DIGGING 500MB TROUGH
THAT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHILE
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TRACK OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE THAT DEVELOPS,
EXPECT LOW TO BEGIN BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN FROM THE SOUTH ON
TUESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF CURRENTLY BRING SIGNIFICANT WARMING TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND RESULT IN ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO TRANSITION
TO RAIN LATE TUESDAY. BUT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH AND EAST, COLD
AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED. MULTIPLE VORTICES IN 500MB TROUGH MAY KEEP
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO COASTAL CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...FEW/ISOLD -SHSN WITH PERIODS OF HIR TRRN
OBSCD THROUGH THIS EVENING. CARRIED VCSH FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT
MPV/RUT/MSS/SLK BASED ON RADAR AND OBSERVATION TRENDS...BUT
GENERALLY LOOKING AT VFR VSBY WITH JUST BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN
PASSING SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z OR SO. MVFR CIGS (2-3 KFT)
GENERALLY LIMITED TO SLK...BUT BRIEFLY POSSIBLE FOR MPV/MSS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. GENERALLY VFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL BEGIN TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS RETURN AT SLK WITH -SHSN
POSSIBLE AFTER 17Z ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW FROM LAKE
ONTARIO AND FRINGE IMPACT FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS. WINDS
BRIEFLY GUSTY (20-25KTS) THRU EARLY EVENING...THEN GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10KTS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LIGHT IFR SNOW AT SLK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
SNOW SQUALLS BRIEFLY POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT 02-05Z ACROSS NRN NY
AND 05-09Z ACROSS VT AS ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THRU...WITH VSBY
BRIEFLY LESS THAN 1 MILE. MODEST IMPACT TO AIRPORT GROUND
OPERATIONS WITH DUSTING TO 2" SNOWFALL PSBL. GENERALLY VFR AFTER
12Z SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25KT
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTN AND EVE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ029-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 111852
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
152 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL
TRACK EASTWARD WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST...SKIES WILL
BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. IT WILL BE COLD WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT
VALLEYS...AND GENERALLY ZERO TO 10 BELOW ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND ARCTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO
SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SHOWERS OR SQUALLS ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF
THE WINTER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MONDAY...WITH A STORM SYSTEM
BRINGING MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 111 PM EST THURSDAY...COMPACT MID-LEVEL VORT EVIDENT IN IR
AND VIS IMAGERY ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL SHIFT EWD
ALONG THE INTL BORDER AND SHIFT EAST OF VT BY 06Z. LOOKING AT JUST
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AIDED
BY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (IN LOW-LEVEL CAA REGIME) AND WLY
850MB FLOW OF 15-20KTS PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE INTO THE ADIRONDACKS
AND NRN GREENS. ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR
LESS...MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS OF OROGRAPHIC ASCENT.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AS NARROW
SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FROM THE WEST AFTER 06Z...CRESTING
ACROSS VT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. CORE OF COLDEST 850MB TEMPS WILL BE
IN PLACE THIS EVENING...GENERALLY -24C TO -26C. SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND THIN LAYER OF SNOW COVER WILL AID IN RADIATIVE
COOLING...ESPECIALLY LATE WITH CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WIND.
LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND AROUND SPRINGFIELD VT...AND GENERALLY ZERO TO -10F ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT: SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER VORT DIGS ESEWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS ALLOWS
SFC-850MB FLOW TO BACK AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. LOW-LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES FROM LAKE ONTARIO BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS INTO
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...LIKELY STARTING AROUND 14-15Z FRIDAY PER
BTV LOCAL WRF RUNS. PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GENERALLY BE
CONFINED TO ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WITH VARIABLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND WEAK S-SW FLOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE
BRIEFLY AUGMENTED BY LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE AS ARCTIC BNDRY SWEEPS INTO NRN NY BETWEEN
02-05Z...AND ACROSS VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD SEE POTENTIAL SNOW
SQUALLS ALONG THE BNDRY AS IT MOVES ACROSS ENTIRE CWA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW END BEHIND
ARCTIC BNDRY AS MEAN FLOW VEERS RAPIDLY FROM SW-NW.

WILL BE REPLACING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WITH A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY THIS AFTN FOR SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY 14Z FRIDAY
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY TO COVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY
3-6". WILL PROBABLY SEE A COUPLE OF COMMUNITIES IN EXCESS OF 6"
SNOWFALL AROUND FINE, NY...BUT ANTICIPATE THAT WILL BE ISOLD GIVEN
TRANSITIONAL NATURE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
BACKS AND THEN QUICKLY VEERS WITH FROPA. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE A
DUSTING TO 2" FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SNOW
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALL ACTIVITY. SNOW RATIOS GENERALLY 20:1
TO 25:1 GIVEN VERY COLD AIR MASS...AND NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS (ALSO CONSIDERING PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT TRAFFIC).

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY GENERALLY GENERALLY TEENS TO LOWER
20S. STRONG CAA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN TO 5 TO 10
BELOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...INCLUDING WIND CHILLS 25 TO 30 BELOW (SEE FORTHCOMING
SHORT-TERM FORECAST SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON DANGEROUSLY LOW
WIND CHILLS FOR THE WEEKEND). LOWS ACROSS VERMONT AND THE NY SIDE
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY ZERO TO +7F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 111 PM EST THURSDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE
COUNTY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO SETS UP FRIDAY
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF CLIPPER LOW APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOOK FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
REACH ST LAWRENCE COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
DURING FRIDAY MORNING AS 925-850MB WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 20-30
KTS. SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING IN ADVANCE OF ARCTIC
COLD FRONT.

AS CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
FRIDAY EVENING...ARCTIC FRONT MOVES INTO FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LAKE ENHANCED UNTIL WINDS SHIFT INTO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT...SHUTTING OFF LAKE EFFECT BAND. A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS
OR SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AS FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY
SATURDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...1 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED IN NORTHERN NY OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND...AND OVER THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. 2 INCHES OR LESS EXPECTED IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS WELL AS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
VERMONT. BY SATURDAY MORNING...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE
FROM NEAR 10 BELOW IN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS TO SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT.

THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS COLD
UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. FORECAST AREA WILL
CONTINUE UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO
AROUND -30C. EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 5 BELOW ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK SATURDAY...WITH STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS
IN VERMONT. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ADD TO THE COLD...AND WILL
LIKELY REQUIRE WIND CHILL HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 446 AM EST THURSDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY EVENING AS
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME
SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN VERY COLD. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR...RANGING FROM 10
TO 20 BELOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE ZERO.
AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SUBZERO READINGS...WE
CAN EXPECT A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN ON MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST...ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO DEVELOP. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 20S WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE OHIO/MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEYS. TROUGH TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT AS IT REACHES EAST COAST
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS
SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE AND THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE OR LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW/RAIN...AS DAYTIME HIGHS BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...FEW/ISOLD -SHSN WITH PERIODS OF HIR TRRN
OBSCD THROUGH THIS EVENING. CARRIED VCSH FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT
MPV/RUT/MSS/SLK BASED ON RADAR AND OBSERVATION TRENDS...BUT
GENERALLY LOOKING AT VFR VSBY WITH JUST BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN
PASSING SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z OR SO. MVFR CIGS (2-3 KFT)
GENERALLY LIMITED TO SLK...BUT BRIEFLY POSSIBLE FOR MPV/MSS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. GENERALLY VFR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL BEGIN TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS RETURN AT SLK WITH -SHSN
POSSIBLE AFTER 17Z ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW FROM LAKE
ONTARIO AND FRINGE IMPACT FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS. WINDS
BRIEFLY GUSTY (20-25KTS) THRU EARLY EVENING...THEN GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10KTS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LIGHT IFR SNOW AT SLK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
SNOW SQUALLS BRIEFLY POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT 02-05Z ACROSS NRN NY
AND 05-09Z ACROSS VT AS ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THRU...WITH VSBY
BRIEFLY LESS THAN 1 MILE. MODEST IMPACT TO AIRPORT GROUND
OPERATIONS WITH DUSTING TO 2" SNOWFALL PSBL. GENERALLY VFR AFTER
12Z SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS TO 25KT
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTN AND EVE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ029-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...BANACOS




000
FXUS61 KALY 111750
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1250 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TODAY WITH MORE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. A MUCH STRONGER ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY CANCELLED FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES...BUT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST FOR
SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY.

AS OF 1230 PM EST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION/PERSISTENCE
OCCURRING ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/NW MA...AND ALSO
WHERE THE REMNANTS OF A LAKE BAND ARE OCCURRING IN THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY/SCHOHARIE CO AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

IN SOUTHERN HERKIMER CO...WHERE THE REMNANTS OF A LAKE
EFFECT BAND CONTINUE...AN ADDITIONAL 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE BAND REMAINS MOST PERSISTENT.
THIS SHOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST HERKIMER CO...ALTHOUGH AREAS OF
2-4 INCHES WILL ALSO BE COMMON FOR AREAS CLOSE TO OR JUST S OF
INTERSTATE 90...AS THE BAND SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

ALSO...UPSLOPE FLOW AND INFLUENCE FROM A SHORTWAVE SLOWLY MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS RATHER PERSISTENT ACROSS
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN BENNINGTON
AND WESTERN WINDHAM COS.

ELSEWHERE...STILL EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED COATINGS...TO LESS THAN
ONE INCH COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY AREAS WHERE THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE
MOST FREQUENT.

IT WILL BE WINDY...WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25-35 MPH
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE AT
TIMES WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL GRADUALLY FALL FROM CURRENT
LEVELS...THROUGH THE LOWER TEENS AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...THROUGH THE TEENS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...AND FROM THE
LOWER/MID 20S INTO THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEY AREAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD WEATHER
WITH IT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO
RANGE WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TEEN TO MID 20S.

LATE FRIDAY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA PRODUCING MORE SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHICH MAY PRODUCE 1 TO
3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT THE COLDEST
AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION. IN
ADDITION TO THE BRUTALLY COLD AIR THERE MAY BE WIND CHILL ISSUES
AS WELL WHICH WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10 BELOW TO 15 ABOVE ZERO RANGE WITH
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. EXPECT LOWS TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO AROUND 5
BELOW ZERO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER A BRUTALLY COLD MORNING... TEMPS WILL RISE ON SUNDAY TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS FOR HIGHS IN MOST AREAS...ALONG WITH A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.  IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY /ALTHOUGH NOT
AS WINDY AS SAT OR SAT NIGHT/...MAKING WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA...THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUN NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER VERY COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS ZERO TO -10 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT ZERO TO 4 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE QUICKLY MODERATING ON MONDAY...AS THE COLD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AWAY AND HEIGHTS START TO BUILD. 850 HPA TEMPS
LOOK TO REBOUND BACK TO -10 TO -15 DEGREES C BY LATE MONDAY.
STILL...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
20S. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN TO START THE
DAY...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
WEATHER FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS STILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT/HIGH QPF EVENT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.  MOST MODELS SHOW A FAST MOVING SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE STARTING TO TURN UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH
WILL MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM STORM COMING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE AMOUNT/TYPE OF PRECIP THAT OUR AREA
RECEIVES.

THE LATEST 00Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH THE 00Z
GEFS...HAS TRENDED SOMEWHAT FURTHER EAST /AND COLDER/ WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM.  WHILE PRECIP WILL LIKELY START OUT AS SNOW ON MONDAY
NIGHT...THERE IS STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IF/WHEN PRECIP
CHANGES...AND TO WHAT TYPE. AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WOULD BE
MORE LIKELY TO STAY ALL/MOSTLY SNOW...WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ESP INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...LOOK TO SEE A CHANGEOVER TO
IP/FZRA...AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY AS THE STORM
TRACKS CLOSE TO THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
CHANGE OVER BACK TO SNOW AS THE STORM WRAPS UP OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE EXITING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE AT LEAST 0.50
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT...WITH OVER AN INCH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION EITHER FOR AREAS ALONG/NEAR THE STORM TRACK AS WELL. WITH
THIS EVENT STILL 5-6 DAYS AWAY...MODEL GUIDANCE WILL CHANGE WITH THE
DETAILS ON EVERY RUN...INCLUDING P-TYPE AND QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE
IS LITTLE GAINED BY GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THE MODEL SPECIFICS JUST
YET.  HOWEVER...WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM IN THE
HWO STATEMENT...AS ALL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO POINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THIS EVENT. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY...AND
KEEPS TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS
EVENING...RESULTING IN CONTINUED BKN CIGS IN VFR RANGE AND WIDELY
SCATTERED -SHSN. WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT KALB/KPSF DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING...HOWEVER KPSF IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE
OCCASIONAL -SHSN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. ANY -SHSN SHOULD END THIS
EVENING...WITH CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY DECREASING AS A SMALL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA.

WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30
KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY
DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL
BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY ONE
LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...IRL/KL/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KALY 111750
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1250 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TODAY WITH MORE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. A MUCH STRONGER ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY CANCELLED FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES...BUT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST FOR
SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY.

AS OF 1230 PM EST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION/PERSISTENCE
OCCURRING ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/NW MA...AND ALSO
WHERE THE REMNANTS OF A LAKE BAND ARE OCCURRING IN THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY/SCHOHARIE CO AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

IN SOUTHERN HERKIMER CO...WHERE THE REMNANTS OF A LAKE
EFFECT BAND CONTINUE...AN ADDITIONAL 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE BAND REMAINS MOST PERSISTENT.
THIS SHOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST HERKIMER CO...ALTHOUGH AREAS OF
2-4 INCHES WILL ALSO BE COMMON FOR AREAS CLOSE TO OR JUST S OF
INTERSTATE 90...AS THE BAND SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

ALSO...UPSLOPE FLOW AND INFLUENCE FROM A SHORTWAVE SLOWLY MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS RATHER PERSISTENT ACROSS
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN BENNINGTON
AND WESTERN WINDHAM COS.

ELSEWHERE...STILL EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED COATINGS...TO LESS THAN
ONE INCH COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY AREAS WHERE THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE
MOST FREQUENT.

IT WILL BE WINDY...WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25-35 MPH
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE AT
TIMES WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL GRADUALLY FALL FROM CURRENT
LEVELS...THROUGH THE LOWER TEENS AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...THROUGH THE TEENS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...AND FROM THE
LOWER/MID 20S INTO THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEY AREAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD WEATHER
WITH IT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO
RANGE WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TEEN TO MID 20S.

LATE FRIDAY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA PRODUCING MORE SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHICH MAY PRODUCE 1 TO
3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT THE COLDEST
AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION. IN
ADDITION TO THE BRUTALLY COLD AIR THERE MAY BE WIND CHILL ISSUES
AS WELL WHICH WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10 BELOW TO 15 ABOVE ZERO RANGE WITH
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. EXPECT LOWS TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO AROUND 5
BELOW ZERO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER A BRUTALLY COLD MORNING... TEMPS WILL RISE ON SUNDAY TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS FOR HIGHS IN MOST AREAS...ALONG WITH A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.  IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY /ALTHOUGH NOT
AS WINDY AS SAT OR SAT NIGHT/...MAKING WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA...THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUN NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER VERY COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS ZERO TO -10 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT ZERO TO 4 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE QUICKLY MODERATING ON MONDAY...AS THE COLD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AWAY AND HEIGHTS START TO BUILD. 850 HPA TEMPS
LOOK TO REBOUND BACK TO -10 TO -15 DEGREES C BY LATE MONDAY.
STILL...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
20S. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN TO START THE
DAY...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
WEATHER FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS STILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT/HIGH QPF EVENT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.  MOST MODELS SHOW A FAST MOVING SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE STARTING TO TURN UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH
WILL MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM STORM COMING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE AMOUNT/TYPE OF PRECIP THAT OUR AREA
RECEIVES.

THE LATEST 00Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH THE 00Z
GEFS...HAS TRENDED SOMEWHAT FURTHER EAST /AND COLDER/ WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM.  WHILE PRECIP WILL LIKELY START OUT AS SNOW ON MONDAY
NIGHT...THERE IS STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IF/WHEN PRECIP
CHANGES...AND TO WHAT TYPE. AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WOULD BE
MORE LIKELY TO STAY ALL/MOSTLY SNOW...WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ESP INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...LOOK TO SEE A CHANGEOVER TO
IP/FZRA...AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY AS THE STORM
TRACKS CLOSE TO THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
CHANGE OVER BACK TO SNOW AS THE STORM WRAPS UP OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE EXITING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE AT LEAST 0.50
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT...WITH OVER AN INCH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION EITHER FOR AREAS ALONG/NEAR THE STORM TRACK AS WELL. WITH
THIS EVENT STILL 5-6 DAYS AWAY...MODEL GUIDANCE WILL CHANGE WITH THE
DETAILS ON EVERY RUN...INCLUDING P-TYPE AND QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE
IS LITTLE GAINED BY GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THE MODEL SPECIFICS JUST
YET.  HOWEVER...WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM IN THE
HWO STATEMENT...AS ALL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO POINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THIS EVENT. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY...AND
KEEPS TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS
EVENING...RESULTING IN CONTINUED BKN CIGS IN VFR RANGE AND WIDELY
SCATTERED -SHSN. WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT KALB/KPSF DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING...HOWEVER KPSF IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE
OCCASIONAL -SHSN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. ANY -SHSN SHOULD END THIS
EVENING...WITH CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY DECREASING AS A SMALL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA.

WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30
KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY
DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL
BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY ONE
LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...IRL/KL/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11



000
FXUS61 KALY 111750
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1250 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TODAY WITH MORE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. A MUCH STRONGER ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY CANCELLED FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES...BUT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST FOR
SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY.

AS OF 1230 PM EST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION/PERSISTENCE
OCCURRING ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/NW MA...AND ALSO
WHERE THE REMNANTS OF A LAKE BAND ARE OCCURRING IN THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY/SCHOHARIE CO AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

IN SOUTHERN HERKIMER CO...WHERE THE REMNANTS OF A LAKE
EFFECT BAND CONTINUE...AN ADDITIONAL 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE BAND REMAINS MOST PERSISTENT.
THIS SHOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST HERKIMER CO...ALTHOUGH AREAS OF
2-4 INCHES WILL ALSO BE COMMON FOR AREAS CLOSE TO OR JUST S OF
INTERSTATE 90...AS THE BAND SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

ALSO...UPSLOPE FLOW AND INFLUENCE FROM A SHORTWAVE SLOWLY MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS RATHER PERSISTENT ACROSS
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN BENNINGTON
AND WESTERN WINDHAM COS.

ELSEWHERE...STILL EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED COATINGS...TO LESS THAN
ONE INCH COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY AREAS WHERE THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE
MOST FREQUENT.

IT WILL BE WINDY...WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25-35 MPH
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE AT
TIMES WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL GRADUALLY FALL FROM CURRENT
LEVELS...THROUGH THE LOWER TEENS AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...THROUGH THE TEENS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...AND FROM THE
LOWER/MID 20S INTO THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEY AREAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD WEATHER
WITH IT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO
RANGE WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TEEN TO MID 20S.

LATE FRIDAY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA PRODUCING MORE SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHICH MAY PRODUCE 1 TO
3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT THE COLDEST
AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION. IN
ADDITION TO THE BRUTALLY COLD AIR THERE MAY BE WIND CHILL ISSUES
AS WELL WHICH WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10 BELOW TO 15 ABOVE ZERO RANGE WITH
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. EXPECT LOWS TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO AROUND 5
BELOW ZERO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER A BRUTALLY COLD MORNING... TEMPS WILL RISE ON SUNDAY TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS FOR HIGHS IN MOST AREAS...ALONG WITH A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.  IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY /ALTHOUGH NOT
AS WINDY AS SAT OR SAT NIGHT/...MAKING WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA...THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUN NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER VERY COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS ZERO TO -10 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT ZERO TO 4 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE QUICKLY MODERATING ON MONDAY...AS THE COLD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AWAY AND HEIGHTS START TO BUILD. 850 HPA TEMPS
LOOK TO REBOUND BACK TO -10 TO -15 DEGREES C BY LATE MONDAY.
STILL...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
20S. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN TO START THE
DAY...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
WEATHER FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS STILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT/HIGH QPF EVENT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.  MOST MODELS SHOW A FAST MOVING SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE STARTING TO TURN UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH
WILL MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM STORM COMING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE AMOUNT/TYPE OF PRECIP THAT OUR AREA
RECEIVES.

THE LATEST 00Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH THE 00Z
GEFS...HAS TRENDED SOMEWHAT FURTHER EAST /AND COLDER/ WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM.  WHILE PRECIP WILL LIKELY START OUT AS SNOW ON MONDAY
NIGHT...THERE IS STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IF/WHEN PRECIP
CHANGES...AND TO WHAT TYPE. AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WOULD BE
MORE LIKELY TO STAY ALL/MOSTLY SNOW...WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ESP INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...LOOK TO SEE A CHANGEOVER TO
IP/FZRA...AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY AS THE STORM
TRACKS CLOSE TO THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
CHANGE OVER BACK TO SNOW AS THE STORM WRAPS UP OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE EXITING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE AT LEAST 0.50
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT...WITH OVER AN INCH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION EITHER FOR AREAS ALONG/NEAR THE STORM TRACK AS WELL. WITH
THIS EVENT STILL 5-6 DAYS AWAY...MODEL GUIDANCE WILL CHANGE WITH THE
DETAILS ON EVERY RUN...INCLUDING P-TYPE AND QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE
IS LITTLE GAINED BY GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THE MODEL SPECIFICS JUST
YET.  HOWEVER...WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM IN THE
HWO STATEMENT...AS ALL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO POINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THIS EVENT. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY...AND
KEEPS TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS
EVENING...RESULTING IN CONTINUED BKN CIGS IN VFR RANGE AND WIDELY
SCATTERED -SHSN. WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT KALB/KPSF DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING...HOWEVER KPSF IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE
OCCASIONAL -SHSN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. ANY -SHSN SHOULD END THIS
EVENING...WITH CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY DECREASING AS A SMALL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA.

WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30
KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY
DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL
BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY ONE
LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...IRL/KL/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11




000
FXUS61 KALY 111733
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1233 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TODAY WITH MORE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. A MUCH STRONGER ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY CANCELLED FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES...BUT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST FOR
SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY.

AS OF 1230 PM EST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION/PERSISTENCE
OCCURRING ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/NW MA...AND ALSO
WHERE THE REMNANTS OF A LAKE BAND ARE OCCURRING IN THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY/SCHOHARIE CO AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

IN SOUTHERN HERKIMER CO...WHERE THE REMNANTS OF A LAKE
EFFECT BAND CONTINUE...AN ADDITIONAL 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE BAND REMAINS MOST PERSISTENT.
THIS SHOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST HERKIMER CO...ALTHOUGH AREAS OF
2-4 INCHES WILL ALSO BE COMMON FOR AREAS CLOSE TO OR JUST S OF
INTERSTATE 90...AS THE BAND SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

ALSO...UPSLOPE FLOW AND INFLUENCE FROM A SHORTWAVE SLOWLY MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS RATHER PERSISTENT ACROSS
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN BENNINGTON
AND WESTERN WINDHAM COS.

ELSEWHERE...STILL EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED COATINGS...TO LESS THAN
ONE INCH COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY AREAS WHERE THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE
MOST FREQUENT.

IT WILL BE WINDY...WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25-35 MPH
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE AT
TIMES WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL GRADUALLY FALL FROM CURRENT
LEVELS...THROUGH THE LOWER TEENS AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...THROUGH THE TEENS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...AND FROM THE
LOWER/MID 20S INTO THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEY AREAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD WEATHER
WITH IT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO
RANGE WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TEEN TO MID 20S.

LATE FRIDAY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA PRODUCING MORE SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHICH MAY PRODUCE 1 TO
3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT THE COLDEST
AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION. IN
ADDITION TO THE BRUTALLY COLD AIR THERE MAY BE WIND CHILL ISSUES
AS WELL WHICH WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10 BELOW TO 15 ABOVE ZERO RANGE WITH
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. EXPECT LOWS TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO AROUND 5
BELOW ZERO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER A BRUTALLY COLD MORNING... TEMPS WILL RISE ON SUNDAY TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS FOR HIGHS IN MOST AREAS...ALONG WITH A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.  IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY /ALTHOUGH NOT
AS WINDY AS SAT OR SAT NIGHT/...MAKING WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA...THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUN NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER VERY COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS ZERO TO -10 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT ZERO TO 4 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE QUICKLY MODERATING ON MONDAY...AS THE COLD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AWAY AND HEIGHTS START TO BUILD. 850 HPA TEMPS
LOOK TO REBOUND BACK TO -10 TO -15 DEGREES C BY LATE MONDAY.
STILL...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
20S. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN TO START THE
DAY...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
WEATHER FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS STILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT/HIGH QPF EVENT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.  MOST MODELS SHOW A FAST MOVING SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE STARTING TO TURN UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH
WILL MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM STORM COMING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE AMOUNT/TYPE OF PRECIP THAT OUR AREA
RECEIVES.

THE LATEST 00Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH THE 00Z
GEFS...HAS TRENDED SOMEWHAT FURTHER EAST /AND COLDER/ WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM.  WHILE PRECIP WILL LIKELY START OUT AS SNOW ON MONDAY
NIGHT...THERE IS STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IF/WHEN PRECIP
CHANGES...AND TO WHAT TYPE. AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WOULD BE
MORE LIKELY TO STAY ALL/MOSTLY SNOW...WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ESP INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...LOOK TO SEE A CHANGEOVER TO
IP/FZRA...AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY AS THE STORM
TRACKS CLOSE TO THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
CHANGE OVER BACK TO SNOW AS THE STORM WRAPS UP OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE EXITING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE AT LEAST 0.50
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT...WITH OVER AN INCH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION EITHER FOR AREAS ALONG/NEAR THE STORM TRACK AS WELL. WITH
THIS EVENT STILL 5-6 DAYS AWAY...MODEL GUIDANCE WILL CHANGE WITH THE
DETAILS ON EVERY RUN...INCLUDING P-TYPE AND QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE
IS LITTLE GAINED BY GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THE MODEL SPECIFICS JUST
YET.  HOWEVER...WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM IN THE
HWO STATEMENT...AS ALL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO POINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THIS EVENT. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY...AND
KEEPS TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY TAF
SITES OF KGFL/KALB/KPOU...WITH IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AT KPSF. IFR CONDITIONS AT KPSF LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT MOIST WESTERLY FLOW UPSLOPING
THE HIGH TERRAIN. RADAR RETURNS HAVE STARTED TO SHOW A SLIGHT
DECREASE OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...SO WILL TREND TAF TOWARDS
MVFR...AND EVENTUALLY BACK TO VFR BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS
THERE.

ELSEWHERE...SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. MOST OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE SOUTHWEST
OF KGFL AND NORTHWEST OF KALB RIGHT NOW. RADAR AND HIRES MODEL
TRENDS SUGGESTS THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE LOCATED WEST
OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY. WHILE
WE CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF -SHSN AT KALB/KGFL...FLYING CONDITIONS
WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE TO BE VFR WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 4500-6000
FT WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

WESTERLY WINDS ARE ALREADY 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS
BEING REPORTED. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THANKS TO GOOD
MIXING TODAY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15 KTS AND SOME GUSTS
OF 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND
KALB...WHERE WINDS WILL BE FUNNELED DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL START TO DIMINISH OVER THE AREA BY THIS
EVENING...AND CLOUDS LOOK TO START TO DISSIPATE...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. WILL ALLOW CIGS TO
SCT OUT FOR LATE THIS EVENING...WITH MOST SITES SEEING SKC BY LATE
TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND BECOME AROUND 5
KTS BY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL
BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY ONE
LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...IRL/KL/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...11




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities