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000
FXUS61 KBTV 011158
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
658 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY...TAPERING OFF LATE MONDAY
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 619 AM EST SUNDAY...A FEW FLURRIES STILL OUT THERE FROM
TIME TO TIME, ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT IS
EXITING NORTHEAST AND SOME POSSIBLE MOISTURE FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN
IN NW FLOW. OTHERWISE, DRYING NW FLOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING, BUT
CAN ALREADY SEE SOME DEWPOINT RISES TO OUR FAR SOUTH AND WEST,
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.

SURFACE RIDGING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY
MOSTLY DRY AND COLD TODAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE
NEGATIVE UPPER TEENS. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
TO UPPER TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. OVERALL TODAY WILL BE THE
CALM BEFORE THE STORM...COLD, BUT CALM/BENIGN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 619 AM EST SUNDAY...MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THIS EVENING. MODELS, ESPECIALLY THE NAM AND GFS, SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT ON TRACK AND PWAT/QPF AMOUNTS. EXPECT WARM AIR ADVECTION
NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW TO SPREAD LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY
MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE STRONG WAA AND CLOUDS TO
MODERATE MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE, AND THE TIME IT WILL TAKE FOR INCOMING MOISTURE TO
SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS, EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. MIN
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR ZERO TO NEGATIVE UPPER TEENS.

HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING...THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL REMAIN POSITIVELY TILTED...HELPING TO BRING AREAS OF STRONG
DEFORMATION OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. STRONG WAA ALOFT,
COMBINES WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MONDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL. LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED/AIDED BY SMALL JET STREAK AT 250MB
OF 100+KTS MOVING OVER THE AREA. PWATS INCREASE TO NEARLY DOUBLE
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN FOR EARLY FEBRUARY MONDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT HEAVIEST SNOWFALL DURING THIS TIME WITH
1-2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

SNOWFALL AMTS TO RANGE FROM 8-14" FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES IN VERMONT 4-8" ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACKS/CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INTO SRN CALEDONIA COUNTY...AND THEN 2-4" ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER.

LOW WILL DEPART TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE...TAPERING OFF SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST...WITH GFS LINGERING SNOW ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT A
LITTLE PAST 06Z TUESDAY. RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY DURING THE
DAY WITH ANOTHER COLD DAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EST SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY IN DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION. ALSO...MODELS SHOWING
SOME LAKE EFFECT CONTRIBUTION FROM LAKE ONTARIO IS LIKELY IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE RAISED POPS OUT
THERE. ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. THIS CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING IS
PRODUCING SOME AREA OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW. EXPECTING
MVFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR BY 15Z SUNDAY. AFTER 15Z SUNDAY
EXPECTING INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MOVES EAST INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY 12Z MONDAY. EXPECTING
LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK BETWEEN
08Z-12Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z MONDAY-06Z TUESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

06Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...BECOMING VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA.

12Z THURSDAY-00Z FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR VTZ001>007-016-017.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     VTZ008>012-018-019.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ028>031-087.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS/KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 011158
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
658 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY...TAPERING OFF LATE MONDAY
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 619 AM EST SUNDAY...A FEW FLURRIES STILL OUT THERE FROM
TIME TO TIME, ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT IS
EXITING NORTHEAST AND SOME POSSIBLE MOISTURE FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN
IN NW FLOW. OTHERWISE, DRYING NW FLOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING, BUT
CAN ALREADY SEE SOME DEWPOINT RISES TO OUR FAR SOUTH AND WEST,
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.

SURFACE RIDGING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY
MOSTLY DRY AND COLD TODAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE
NEGATIVE UPPER TEENS. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
TO UPPER TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. OVERALL TODAY WILL BE THE
CALM BEFORE THE STORM...COLD, BUT CALM/BENIGN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 619 AM EST SUNDAY...MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THIS EVENING. MODELS, ESPECIALLY THE NAM AND GFS, SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT ON TRACK AND PWAT/QPF AMOUNTS. EXPECT WARM AIR ADVECTION
NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW TO SPREAD LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY
MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE STRONG WAA AND CLOUDS TO
MODERATE MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE, AND THE TIME IT WILL TAKE FOR INCOMING MOISTURE TO
SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS, EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. MIN
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR ZERO TO NEGATIVE UPPER TEENS.

HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING...THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL REMAIN POSITIVELY TILTED...HELPING TO BRING AREAS OF STRONG
DEFORMATION OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. STRONG WAA ALOFT,
COMBINES WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MONDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL. LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED/AIDED BY SMALL JET STREAK AT 250MB
OF 100+KTS MOVING OVER THE AREA. PWATS INCREASE TO NEARLY DOUBLE
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN FOR EARLY FEBRUARY MONDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT HEAVIEST SNOWFALL DURING THIS TIME WITH
1-2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

SNOWFALL AMTS TO RANGE FROM 8-14" FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES IN VERMONT 4-8" ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACKS/CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INTO SRN CALEDONIA COUNTY...AND THEN 2-4" ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER.

LOW WILL DEPART TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE...TAPERING OFF SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST...WITH GFS LINGERING SNOW ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT A
LITTLE PAST 06Z TUESDAY. RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY DURING THE
DAY WITH ANOTHER COLD DAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EST SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY IN DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION. ALSO...MODELS SHOWING
SOME LAKE EFFECT CONTRIBUTION FROM LAKE ONTARIO IS LIKELY IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE RAISED POPS OUT
THERE. ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. THIS CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING IS
PRODUCING SOME AREA OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW. EXPECTING
MVFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR BY 15Z SUNDAY. AFTER 15Z SUNDAY
EXPECTING INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MOVES EAST INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY 12Z MONDAY. EXPECTING
LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK BETWEEN
08Z-12Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z MONDAY-06Z TUESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

06Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...BECOMING VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA.

12Z THURSDAY-00Z FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR VTZ001>007-016-017.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     VTZ008>012-018-019.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ028>031-087.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS/KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/NEILES



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000
FXUS61 KALY 011131
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. IT WILL
NOT BE AS COLD AS SATURDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT
AND MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 550 AM EST...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WAS WORKING ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ADIRONDACKS. HIS MOISTURE STARVED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY PRODUCING
SOME FLURRIES AHEAD OF IT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL NEAR
THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ WESTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST/OHIO
VALLEY. A 1030 HPA OR SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN FROM SE OF
JAMES BAY. THE SKIES MAY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NRN TIER OF
THE FCST AREA. H850 TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH AND WEST OF
ALBANY...AND -8C TO -10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
A LITTLE WARMER THAN SATURDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY 5 TO 15
DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT AND MONDAY A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EVENT IS
EXPECTED AS A NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN
STREAM MOISTURE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE
SUNRISE MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING WITH SNOW
LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY EVENING.

ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AS
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE THIS EVENING TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
THEN PASSES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND ON MONDAY. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE ISTENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS OUR REGION AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AT H7 AROUND 18Z ON MONDAY
AND A DECENT THETA E PLUME H10-H8 DURING MONDAY MORNING WHEN THE
SNOW SHOULD BE THE HEAVIEST. PLUME DIAGRAMS FOR ALBANY ARE
CENTERED BTWN 0.6 AND 1.0 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS SHOULD BE QUITE HIGH FOR THIS STORM GENERALLY IN THE
15-20:1 RANGE. WITH ALL OF THIS TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION HAVE
UPGRADED THE FINAL FOUR ZONES UP NORTH TO A WARNING SUCH THAT NOW
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS IN A WARNING. EXPECTED SNOWFALL TOTALS
ARE 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES WITH 8 TO 16
INCHES ELSEWHERE. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BEHIND THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR DESCENDS ACROSS OUR REGION.
THIS ALONG WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP TO ZERO OR
BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO AND
COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WE MAY ONCE AGAIN NEED
WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ON TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO OUR REGION AND
THEN PASS TO OUR EAST LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE VERY COLD WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW...MAINLY LIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT...PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THU...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ONE THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON REGARDING THIS CLIPPER...IS THAT THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR LATER WED INTO THU AS TO WHETHER SOME
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY/MOISTURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NW
MEXICO...TRANSLATES NORTHEAST AND BECOMES PARTIALLY PHASED WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...AS THE 00Z/01 ECMWF
AND A FEW GEFS MEMBERS SUGGEST...THAN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SNOW...AND POSSIBLY GREATER AMOUNTS COULD RESULT SOMETIME BETWEEN
WED AND EARLY FRI...BUT THIS APPEARS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY AT
THIS TIME.

ASSUMING THE CLIPPER SYSTEM REMAINS WEAK/PROGRESSIVE AND EXITS TO
THE EAST...AN ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS
ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRI INTO
EARLY SAT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION HEADING INTO LATE SAT AND SUN WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SOME SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING
APPROACHING 20. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO...WITH WIND CHILLS GENERALLY 5 BELOW ZERO TO 15 BELOW
ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PASS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS...AND A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF...AND IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS FRONT. THEN...A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL SPREAD STEADY SNOW FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES
BEGINNING BETWEEN 04Z-07Z/MON.

AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH TODAY...CIGS MAY BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE MVFR
RANGE. ALSO...WHERE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
OCCUR...VSBYS COULD DIP INTO THE MVFR RANGE...AND EVEN BRIEFLY IFR
AT KPSF.

LATER THIS MORNING...CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
GETS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT...BKN CIGS AROUND
3500-5000 FT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST.

AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES...WE EXPECT A
STEADY SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 04Z-07Z/MON. INITIALLY THE SNOW SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT...BUT AFTER ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO OF STARTING...INTENSITY WILL
INCREASE...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED TO BE FALLING AT
KALB/KPSF/KPOU TOWARD AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 10Z/MON. THE HEAVIER
SNOW MAY NOT REACH KGFL UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z/MON. EXPECT FLIGHT
CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR/IFR RANGE ONCE THE
STEADY SNOW DEVELOPS...WITH WIDESPREAD LIFR DEVELOPING CLOSER TO
10Z-12Z/SUN.

LIGHT WEST WINDS THIS MORNING AT 5-10 KT WILL SHIFT INTO THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH AS THE FRONT PASSES AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. WINDS
WILL THEN VEER INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST LATER TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT AT 5-10 KT...BUT SOME GUSTS MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
12Z/MON...ESP AT KALB...WHERE THEY COULD REACH TO AROUND 15-20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA.

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW ICE
TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES
OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...IRL/KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...11









000
FXUS61 KALY 011131
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. IT WILL
NOT BE AS COLD AS SATURDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT
AND MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 550 AM EST...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WAS WORKING ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ADIRONDACKS. HIS MOISTURE STARVED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY PRODUCING
SOME FLURRIES AHEAD OF IT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL NEAR
THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ WESTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST/OHIO
VALLEY. A 1030 HPA OR SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN FROM SE OF
JAMES BAY. THE SKIES MAY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NRN TIER OF
THE FCST AREA. H850 TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH AND WEST OF
ALBANY...AND -8C TO -10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
A LITTLE WARMER THAN SATURDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY 5 TO 15
DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT AND MONDAY A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EVENT IS
EXPECTED AS A NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN
STREAM MOISTURE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE
SUNRISE MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING WITH SNOW
LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY EVENING.

ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AS
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE THIS EVENING TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
THEN PASSES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND ON MONDAY. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE ISTENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS OUR REGION AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AT H7 AROUND 18Z ON MONDAY
AND A DECENT THETA E PLUME H10-H8 DURING MONDAY MORNING WHEN THE
SNOW SHOULD BE THE HEAVIEST. PLUME DIAGRAMS FOR ALBANY ARE
CENTERED BTWN 0.6 AND 1.0 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS SHOULD BE QUITE HIGH FOR THIS STORM GENERALLY IN THE
15-20:1 RANGE. WITH ALL OF THIS TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION HAVE
UPGRADED THE FINAL FOUR ZONES UP NORTH TO A WARNING SUCH THAT NOW
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS IN A WARNING. EXPECTED SNOWFALL TOTALS
ARE 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES WITH 8 TO 16
INCHES ELSEWHERE. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BEHIND THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR DESCENDS ACROSS OUR REGION.
THIS ALONG WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP TO ZERO OR
BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO AND
COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WE MAY ONCE AGAIN NEED
WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ON TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO OUR REGION AND
THEN PASS TO OUR EAST LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE VERY COLD WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW...MAINLY LIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT...PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THU...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ONE THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON REGARDING THIS CLIPPER...IS THAT THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR LATER WED INTO THU AS TO WHETHER SOME
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY/MOISTURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NW
MEXICO...TRANSLATES NORTHEAST AND BECOMES PARTIALLY PHASED WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...AS THE 00Z/01 ECMWF
AND A FEW GEFS MEMBERS SUGGEST...THAN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SNOW...AND POSSIBLY GREATER AMOUNTS COULD RESULT SOMETIME BETWEEN
WED AND EARLY FRI...BUT THIS APPEARS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY AT
THIS TIME.

ASSUMING THE CLIPPER SYSTEM REMAINS WEAK/PROGRESSIVE AND EXITS TO
THE EAST...AN ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS
ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRI INTO
EARLY SAT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION HEADING INTO LATE SAT AND SUN WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SOME SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING
APPROACHING 20. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO...WITH WIND CHILLS GENERALLY 5 BELOW ZERO TO 15 BELOW
ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PASS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS...AND A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF...AND IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS FRONT. THEN...A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL SPREAD STEADY SNOW FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES
BEGINNING BETWEEN 04Z-07Z/MON.

AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH TODAY...CIGS MAY BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE MVFR
RANGE. ALSO...WHERE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
OCCUR...VSBYS COULD DIP INTO THE MVFR RANGE...AND EVEN BRIEFLY IFR
AT KPSF.

LATER THIS MORNING...CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
GETS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT...BKN CIGS AROUND
3500-5000 FT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST.

AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES...WE EXPECT A
STEADY SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 04Z-07Z/MON. INITIALLY THE SNOW SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT...BUT AFTER ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO OF STARTING...INTENSITY WILL
INCREASE...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED TO BE FALLING AT
KALB/KPSF/KPOU TOWARD AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 10Z/MON. THE HEAVIER
SNOW MAY NOT REACH KGFL UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z/MON. EXPECT FLIGHT
CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR/IFR RANGE ONCE THE
STEADY SNOW DEVELOPS...WITH WIDESPREAD LIFR DEVELOPING CLOSER TO
10Z-12Z/SUN.

LIGHT WEST WINDS THIS MORNING AT 5-10 KT WILL SHIFT INTO THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH AS THE FRONT PASSES AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. WINDS
WILL THEN VEER INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST LATER TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT AT 5-10 KT...BUT SOME GUSTS MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
12Z/MON...ESP AT KALB...WHERE THEY COULD REACH TO AROUND 15-20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA.

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW ICE
TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES
OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...IRL/KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...11










000
FXUS61 KBTV 011119
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
619 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY...TAPERING OFF LATE MONDAY
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 619 AM EST SUNDAY...A FEW FLURRIES STILL OUT THERE FROM
TIME TO TIME, ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT IS
EXITING NORTHEAST AND SOME POSSIBLE MOISTURE FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN
IN NW FLOW. OTHERWISE, DRYING NW FLOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING, BUT
CAN ALREADY SEE SOME DEWPOINT RISES TO OUR FAR SOUTH AND WEST,
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.

SURFACE RIDGING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY
MOSTLY DRY AND COLD TODAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE
NEGATIVE UPPER TEENS. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
TO UPPER TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. OVERALL TODAY WILL BE THE
CALM BEFORE THE STORM...COLD, BUT CALM/BENIGN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 619 AM EST SUNDAY...MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THIS EVENING. MODELS, ESPECIALLY THE NAM AND GFS, SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT ON TRACK AND PWAT/QPF AMOUNTS. EXPECT WARM AIR ADVECTION
NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW TO SPREAD LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY
MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE STRONG WAA AND CLOUDS TO
MODERATE MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE, AND THE TIME IT WILL TAKE FOR INCOMING MOISTURE TO
SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS, EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. MIN
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR ZERO TO NEGATIVE UPPER TEENS.

HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING...THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL REMAIN POSITIVELY TILTED...HELPING TO BRING AREAS OF STRONG
DEFORMATION OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. STRONG WAA ALOFT,
COMBINES WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MONDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL. LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED/AIDED BY SMALL JET STREAK AT 250MB
OF 100+KTS MOVING OVER THE AREA. PWATS INCREASE TO NEARLY DOUBLE
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN FOR EARLY FEBRUARY MONDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT HEAVIEST SNOWFALL DURING THIS TIME WITH
1-2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

SNOWFALL AMTS TO RANGE FROM 8-14" FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES IN VERMONT 4-8" ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACKS/CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INTO SRN CALEDONIA COUNTY...AND THEN 2-4" ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER.

LOW WILL DEPART TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE...TAPERING OFF SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST...WITH GFS LINGERING SNOW ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT A
LITTLE PAST 06Z TUESDAY. RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY DURING THE
DAY WITH ANOTHER COLD DAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EST SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY IN DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION. ALSO...MODELS SHOWING
SOME LAKE EFFECT CONTRIBUTION FROM LAKE ONTARIO IS LIKELY IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE RAISED POPS OUT
THERE. ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. THIS CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING IS
PRODUCING SOME AREA OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW. EXPECTING
MVFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR BY 15Z SUNDAY. AFTER 15Z SUNDAY
EXPECTING INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MOVES EAST INTO THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY BY 06Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z MONDAY-09Z MONDAY...VFR.

09Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA.

12Z THURSDAY-00Z FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR VTZ001>007-016-017.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     VTZ008>012-018-019.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ028>031-087.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS/KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011119
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
619 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY...TAPERING OFF LATE MONDAY
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 619 AM EST SUNDAY...A FEW FLURRIES STILL OUT THERE FROM
TIME TO TIME, ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT IS
EXITING NORTHEAST AND SOME POSSIBLE MOISTURE FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN
IN NW FLOW. OTHERWISE, DRYING NW FLOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING, BUT
CAN ALREADY SEE SOME DEWPOINT RISES TO OUR FAR SOUTH AND WEST,
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.

SURFACE RIDGING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE NORTH COUNTRY
MOSTLY DRY AND COLD TODAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE
NEGATIVE UPPER TEENS. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
TO UPPER TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. OVERALL TODAY WILL BE THE
CALM BEFORE THE STORM...COLD, BUT CALM/BENIGN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 619 AM EST SUNDAY...MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THIS EVENING. MODELS, ESPECIALLY THE NAM AND GFS, SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT ON TRACK AND PWAT/QPF AMOUNTS. EXPECT WARM AIR ADVECTION
NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW TO SPREAD LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY
MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE STRONG WAA AND CLOUDS TO
MODERATE MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE, AND THE TIME IT WILL TAKE FOR INCOMING MOISTURE TO
SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS, EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. MIN
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR ZERO TO NEGATIVE UPPER TEENS.

HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING...THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL REMAIN POSITIVELY TILTED...HELPING TO BRING AREAS OF STRONG
DEFORMATION OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. STRONG WAA ALOFT,
COMBINES WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MONDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL. LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED/AIDED BY SMALL JET STREAK AT 250MB
OF 100+KTS MOVING OVER THE AREA. PWATS INCREASE TO NEARLY DOUBLE
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN FOR EARLY FEBRUARY MONDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT HEAVIEST SNOWFALL DURING THIS TIME WITH
1-2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

SNOWFALL AMTS TO RANGE FROM 8-14" FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES IN VERMONT 4-8" ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACKS/CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INTO SRN CALEDONIA COUNTY...AND THEN 2-4" ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER.

LOW WILL DEPART TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE...TAPERING OFF SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST...WITH GFS LINGERING SNOW ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT A
LITTLE PAST 06Z TUESDAY. RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY DURING THE
DAY WITH ANOTHER COLD DAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EST SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY IN DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION. ALSO...MODELS SHOWING
SOME LAKE EFFECT CONTRIBUTION FROM LAKE ONTARIO IS LIKELY IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE RAISED POPS OUT
THERE. ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. THIS CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING IS
PRODUCING SOME AREA OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW. EXPECTING
MVFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR BY 15Z SUNDAY. AFTER 15Z SUNDAY
EXPECTING INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MOVES EAST INTO THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY BY 06Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z MONDAY-09Z MONDAY...VFR.

09Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA.

12Z THURSDAY-00Z FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR VTZ001>007-016-017.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     VTZ008>012-018-019.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ028>031-087.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS/KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/NEILES



000
FXUS61 KALY 011052
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
552 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. IT WILL
NOT BE AS COLD AS SATURDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT
AND MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 550 AM EST...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WAS WORKING ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ADIRONDACKS. HIS MOISTURE STARVED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY PRODUCING
SOME FLURRIES AHEAD OF IT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL NEAR
THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ WESTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST/OHIO
VALLEY. A 1030 HPA OR SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN FROM SE OF
JAMES BAY. THE SKIES MAY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NRN TIER OF
THE FCST AREA. H850 TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH AND WEST OF
ALBANY...AND -8C TO -10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
A LITTLE WARMER THAN SATURDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY 5 TO 15
DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT AND MONDAY A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EVENT IS
EXPECTED AS A NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN
STREAM MOISTURE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE
SUNRISE MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING WITH SNOW
LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY EVENING.

ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AS
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE THIS EVENING TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
THEN PASSES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND ON MONDAY. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE ISTENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS OUR REGION AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AT H7 AROUND 18Z ON MONDAY
AND A DECENT THETA E PLUME H10-H8 DURING MONDAY MORNING WHEN THE
SNOW SHOULD BE THE HEAVIEST. PLUME DIAGRAMS FOR ALBANY ARE
CENTERED BTWN 0.6 AND 1.0 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS SHOULD BE QUITE HIGH FOR THIS STORM GENERALLY IN THE
15-20:1 RANGE. WITH ALL OF THIS TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION HAVE
UPGRADED THE FINAL FOUR ZONES UP NORTH TO A WARNING SUCH THAT NOW
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS IN A WARNING. EXPECTED SNOWFALL TOTALS
ARE 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES WITH 8 TO 16
INCHES ELSEWHERE. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BEHIND THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR DESCENDS ACROSS OUR REGION.
THIS ALONG WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP TO ZERO OR
BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO AND
COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WE MAY ONCE AGAIN NEED
WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ON TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO OUR REGION AND
THEN PASS TO OUR EAST LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE VERY COLD WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW...MAINLY LIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT...PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THU...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ONE THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON REGARDING THIS CLIPPER...IS THAT THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR LATER WED INTO THU AS TO WHETHER SOME
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY/MOISTURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NW
MEXICO...TRANSLATES NORTHEAST AND BECOMES PARTIALLY PHASED WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...AS THE 00Z/01 ECMWF
AND A FEW GEFS MEMBERS SUGGEST...THAN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SNOW...AND POSSIBLY GREATER AMOUNTS COULD RESULT SOMETIME BETWEEN
WED AND EARLY FRI...BUT THIS APPEARS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY AT
THIS TIME.

ASSUMING THE CLIPPER SYSTEM REMAINS WEAK/PROGRESSIVE AND EXITS TO
THE EAST...AN ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS
ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRI INTO
EARLY SAT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION HEADING INTO LATE SAT AND SUN WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SOME SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING
APPROACHING 20. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO...WITH WIND CHILLS GENERALLY 5 BELOW ZERO TO 15 BELOW
ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...PASSING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
TAF SITES BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS...AND A
FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF...AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS FRONT. THEN...A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
SPREAD STEADY SNOW FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES
BEGINNING BETWEEN 03Z-07Z/MON.

LOW CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD
KGFL/KALB AND KPSF THROUGH 08Z/SUN...AND MAY REACH KPOU CLOSER TO
08Z-10Z/SUN. SOME FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT KALB AND
KPSF. CIGS SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN VFR WITH BASES OF 3500-5000 FT
AGL...BUT COULD OCCASIONALLY APPROACH MVFR...WITH MVFR CIGS MORE
LIKELY AT KPSF.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT...BKN
CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES ON SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 03Z MONDAY. LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE N-NE WINDS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AT SPEEDS OF AROUND 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA.

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW ICE
TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES
OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...IRL/KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...11










000
FXUS61 KALY 011052
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
552 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. IT WILL
NOT BE AS COLD AS SATURDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT
AND MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 550 AM EST...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WAS WORKING ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ADIRONDACKS. HIS MOISTURE STARVED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY PRODUCING
SOME FLURRIES AHEAD OF IT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL NEAR
THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ WESTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST/OHIO
VALLEY. A 1030 HPA OR SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN FROM SE OF
JAMES BAY. THE SKIES MAY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NRN TIER OF
THE FCST AREA. H850 TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH AND WEST OF
ALBANY...AND -8C TO -10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
A LITTLE WARMER THAN SATURDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY 5 TO 15
DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT AND MONDAY A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EVENT IS
EXPECTED AS A NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN
STREAM MOISTURE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE
SUNRISE MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING WITH SNOW
LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY EVENING.

ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AS
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE THIS EVENING TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
THEN PASSES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND ON MONDAY. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE ISTENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS OUR REGION AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AT H7 AROUND 18Z ON MONDAY
AND A DECENT THETA E PLUME H10-H8 DURING MONDAY MORNING WHEN THE
SNOW SHOULD BE THE HEAVIEST. PLUME DIAGRAMS FOR ALBANY ARE
CENTERED BTWN 0.6 AND 1.0 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS SHOULD BE QUITE HIGH FOR THIS STORM GENERALLY IN THE
15-20:1 RANGE. WITH ALL OF THIS TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION HAVE
UPGRADED THE FINAL FOUR ZONES UP NORTH TO A WARNING SUCH THAT NOW
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS IN A WARNING. EXPECTED SNOWFALL TOTALS
ARE 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES WITH 8 TO 16
INCHES ELSEWHERE. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BEHIND THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR DESCENDS ACROSS OUR REGION.
THIS ALONG WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP TO ZERO OR
BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO AND
COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WE MAY ONCE AGAIN NEED
WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ON TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO OUR REGION AND
THEN PASS TO OUR EAST LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE VERY COLD WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW...MAINLY LIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT...PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THU...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ONE THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON REGARDING THIS CLIPPER...IS THAT THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR LATER WED INTO THU AS TO WHETHER SOME
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY/MOISTURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NW
MEXICO...TRANSLATES NORTHEAST AND BECOMES PARTIALLY PHASED WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...AS THE 00Z/01 ECMWF
AND A FEW GEFS MEMBERS SUGGEST...THAN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SNOW...AND POSSIBLY GREATER AMOUNTS COULD RESULT SOMETIME BETWEEN
WED AND EARLY FRI...BUT THIS APPEARS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY AT
THIS TIME.

ASSUMING THE CLIPPER SYSTEM REMAINS WEAK/PROGRESSIVE AND EXITS TO
THE EAST...AN ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS
ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRI INTO
EARLY SAT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION HEADING INTO LATE SAT AND SUN WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SOME SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING
APPROACHING 20. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO...WITH WIND CHILLS GENERALLY 5 BELOW ZERO TO 15 BELOW
ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...PASSING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
TAF SITES BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS...AND A
FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF...AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS FRONT. THEN...A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
SPREAD STEADY SNOW FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES
BEGINNING BETWEEN 03Z-07Z/MON.

LOW CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD
KGFL/KALB AND KPSF THROUGH 08Z/SUN...AND MAY REACH KPOU CLOSER TO
08Z-10Z/SUN. SOME FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT KALB AND
KPSF. CIGS SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN VFR WITH BASES OF 3500-5000 FT
AGL...BUT COULD OCCASIONALLY APPROACH MVFR...WITH MVFR CIGS MORE
LIKELY AT KPSF.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT...BKN
CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES ON SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 03Z MONDAY. LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE N-NE WINDS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AT SPEEDS OF AROUND 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA.

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW ICE
TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES
OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...IRL/KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...11









000
FXUS61 KBTV 010921
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
421 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY...TAPERING OFF LATE MONDAY
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 403 AM EST SUNDAY...SURFACE RIDGING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL KEEP TODAY DRY AND COLD. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN
THE NEGATIVE UPPER TEENS. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO UPPER
TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. OVERALL TODAY WILL BE THE CALM
BEFORE THE STORM...COLD, BUT CALM/BENIGN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 403 AM EST SUNDAY...MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THIS EVENING. MODELS, ESPECIALLY THE NAM AND GFS, SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT ON TRACK AND PWAT/QPF AMOUNTS. EXPECT WARM AIR ADVECTION
NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW TO SPREAD LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY
MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE STRONG WAA AND CLOUDS TO
MODERATE MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE, AND THE TIME IT WILL TAKE FOR INCOMING MOISTURE TO
SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS, EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. MIN
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR ZERO TO NEGATIVE UPPER TEENS.

HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING...THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL REMAIN POSITIVELY TILTED...HELPING TO BRING AREAS OF STRONG
DEFORMATION OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. STRONG WAA ALOFT,
COMBINES WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MONDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL. PWATS INCREASE TO NEARLY DOUBLE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN
FOR EARLY FEBRUARY MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL DURING THIS TIME WITH 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

SNOWFALL AMTS TO RANGE FROM 8-14" FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES IN VERMONT 4-8" ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACKS/CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INTO SRN CALEDONIA COUNTY...AND THEN 2-4" ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER.

LOW WILL DEPART TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE...TAPERING OFF SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST...WITH GFS LINGERING SNOW ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT A
LITTLE PAST 06Z TUESDAY. RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY DURING THE
DAY WITH ANOTHER COLD DAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EST SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY IN DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION. ALSO...MODELS SHOWING
SOME LAKE EFFECT CONTRIBUTION FROM LAKE ONTARIO IS LIKELY IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE RAISED POPS OUT
THERE. ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. THIS CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING IS
PRODUCING SOME AREA OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW. EXPECTING
MVFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR BY 15Z SUNDAY. AFTER 15Z SUNDAY
EXPECTING INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MOVES EAST INTO THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY BY 06Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z MONDAY-09Z MONDAY...VFR.

09Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA.

12Z THURSDAY-00Z FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR VTZ001>007-016-017.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     VTZ008>012-018-019.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ028>031-087.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS/KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010921
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
421 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY...TAPERING OFF LATE MONDAY
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 403 AM EST SUNDAY...SURFACE RIDGING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL KEEP TODAY DRY AND COLD. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN
THE NEGATIVE UPPER TEENS. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO UPPER
TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. OVERALL TODAY WILL BE THE CALM
BEFORE THE STORM...COLD, BUT CALM/BENIGN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 403 AM EST SUNDAY...MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THIS EVENING. MODELS, ESPECIALLY THE NAM AND GFS, SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT ON TRACK AND PWAT/QPF AMOUNTS. EXPECT WARM AIR ADVECTION
NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW TO SPREAD LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY
MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE STRONG WAA AND CLOUDS TO
MODERATE MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE, AND THE TIME IT WILL TAKE FOR INCOMING MOISTURE TO
SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS, EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. MIN
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR ZERO TO NEGATIVE UPPER TEENS.

HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING...THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL REMAIN POSITIVELY TILTED...HELPING TO BRING AREAS OF STRONG
DEFORMATION OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. STRONG WAA ALOFT,
COMBINES WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MONDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL. PWATS INCREASE TO NEARLY DOUBLE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN
FOR EARLY FEBRUARY MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL DURING THIS TIME WITH 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

SNOWFALL AMTS TO RANGE FROM 8-14" FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES IN VERMONT 4-8" ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACKS/CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INTO SRN CALEDONIA COUNTY...AND THEN 2-4" ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER.

LOW WILL DEPART TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE...TAPERING OFF SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST...WITH GFS LINGERING SNOW ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT A
LITTLE PAST 06Z TUESDAY. RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY DURING THE
DAY WITH ANOTHER COLD DAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EST SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY IN DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION. ALSO...MODELS SHOWING
SOME LAKE EFFECT CONTRIBUTION FROM LAKE ONTARIO IS LIKELY IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE RAISED POPS OUT
THERE. ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. THIS CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING IS
PRODUCING SOME AREA OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW. EXPECTING
MVFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR BY 15Z SUNDAY. AFTER 15Z SUNDAY
EXPECTING INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MOVES EAST INTO THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY BY 06Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z MONDAY-09Z MONDAY...VFR.

09Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA.

12Z THURSDAY-00Z FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR VTZ001>007-016-017.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     VTZ008>012-018-019.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ028>031-087.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS/KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010921
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
421 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY...TAPERING OFF LATE MONDAY
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 403 AM EST SUNDAY...SURFACE RIDGING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL KEEP TODAY DRY AND COLD. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN
THE NEGATIVE UPPER TEENS. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO UPPER
TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. OVERALL TODAY WILL BE THE CALM
BEFORE THE STORM...COLD, BUT CALM/BENIGN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 403 AM EST SUNDAY...MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THIS EVENING. MODELS, ESPECIALLY THE NAM AND GFS, SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT ON TRACK AND PWAT/QPF AMOUNTS. EXPECT WARM AIR ADVECTION
NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW TO SPREAD LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY
MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE STRONG WAA AND CLOUDS TO
MODERATE MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE, AND THE TIME IT WILL TAKE FOR INCOMING MOISTURE TO
SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS, EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. MIN
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR ZERO TO NEGATIVE UPPER TEENS.

HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING...THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL REMAIN POSITIVELY TILTED...HELPING TO BRING AREAS OF STRONG
DEFORMATION OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. STRONG WAA ALOFT,
COMBINES WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MONDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL. PWATS INCREASE TO NEARLY DOUBLE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN
FOR EARLY FEBRUARY MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL DURING THIS TIME WITH 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

SNOWFALL AMTS TO RANGE FROM 8-14" FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES IN VERMONT 4-8" ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACKS/CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INTO SRN CALEDONIA COUNTY...AND THEN 2-4" ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER.

LOW WILL DEPART TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE...TAPERING OFF SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST...WITH GFS LINGERING SNOW ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT A
LITTLE PAST 06Z TUESDAY. RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY DURING THE
DAY WITH ANOTHER COLD DAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EST SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY IN DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION. ALSO...MODELS SHOWING
SOME LAKE EFFECT CONTRIBUTION FROM LAKE ONTARIO IS LIKELY IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE RAISED POPS OUT
THERE. ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. THIS CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING IS
PRODUCING SOME AREA OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW. EXPECTING
MVFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR BY 15Z SUNDAY. AFTER 15Z SUNDAY
EXPECTING INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MOVES EAST INTO THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY BY 06Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z MONDAY-09Z MONDAY...VFR.

09Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA.

12Z THURSDAY-00Z FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR VTZ001>007-016-017.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     VTZ008>012-018-019.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ028>031-087.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS/KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010921
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
421 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY...TAPERING OFF LATE MONDAY
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 403 AM EST SUNDAY...SURFACE RIDGING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL KEEP TODAY DRY AND COLD. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN
THE NEGATIVE UPPER TEENS. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO UPPER
TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. OVERALL TODAY WILL BE THE CALM
BEFORE THE STORM...COLD, BUT CALM/BENIGN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 403 AM EST SUNDAY...MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THIS EVENING. MODELS, ESPECIALLY THE NAM AND GFS, SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT ON TRACK AND PWAT/QPF AMOUNTS. EXPECT WARM AIR ADVECTION
NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW TO SPREAD LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY
MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE STRONG WAA AND CLOUDS TO
MODERATE MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE, AND THE TIME IT WILL TAKE FOR INCOMING MOISTURE TO
SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS, EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. MIN
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR ZERO TO NEGATIVE UPPER TEENS.

HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING...THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL REMAIN POSITIVELY TILTED...HELPING TO BRING AREAS OF STRONG
DEFORMATION OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. STRONG WAA ALOFT,
COMBINES WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MONDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL. PWATS INCREASE TO NEARLY DOUBLE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN
FOR EARLY FEBRUARY MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL DURING THIS TIME WITH 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

SNOWFALL AMTS TO RANGE FROM 8-14" FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES IN VERMONT 4-8" ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACKS/CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INTO SRN CALEDONIA COUNTY...AND THEN 2-4" ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER.

LOW WILL DEPART TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE...TAPERING OFF SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST...WITH GFS LINGERING SNOW ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT A
LITTLE PAST 06Z TUESDAY. RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY DURING THE
DAY WITH ANOTHER COLD DAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EST SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY IN DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION. ALSO...MODELS SHOWING
SOME LAKE EFFECT CONTRIBUTION FROM LAKE ONTARIO IS LIKELY IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE RAISED POPS OUT
THERE. ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. THIS CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING IS
PRODUCING SOME AREA OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW. EXPECTING
MVFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR BY 15Z SUNDAY. AFTER 15Z SUNDAY
EXPECTING INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MOVES EAST INTO THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY BY 06Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z MONDAY-09Z MONDAY...VFR.

09Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA.

12Z THURSDAY-00Z FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR VTZ001>007-016-017.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     VTZ008>012-018-019.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ028>031-087.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS/KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010903
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
403 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY...TAPERING OFF LATE MONDAY
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 403 AM EST SUNDAY...SURFACE RIDGING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL KEEP TODAY DRY AND COLD. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN
THE NEGATIVE UPPER TEENS. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO UPPER
TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. OVERALL TODAY WILL BE THE CALM
BEFORE THE STORM...COLD, BUT CALM/BENIGN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 403 AM EST SUNDAY...MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THIS EVENING. MODELS, ESPECIALLY THE NAM AND GFS, SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT ON TRACK AND PWAT/QPF AMOUNTS. EXPECT WARM AIR ADVECTION
NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW TO SPREAD LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY
MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE STRONG WAA AND CLOUDS TO
MODERATE MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE, AND THE TIME IT WILL TAKE FOR INCOMING MOISTURE TO
SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS, EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. MIN
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR ZERO TO NEGATIVE UPPER TEENS.

HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING...THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL REMAIN POSITIVELY TILTED...HELPING TO BRING AREAS OF STRONG
DEFORMATION OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. STRONG WAA ALOFT,
COMBINES WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MONDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL. PWATS INCREASE TO NEARLY DOUBLE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN
FOR EARLY FEBRUARY MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL DURING THIS TIME WITH 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

SNOWFALL AMTS TO RANGE FROM 8-14" FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES IN VERMONT 4-8" ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACKS/CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INTO SRN CALEDONIA COUNTY...AND THEN 2-4" ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER.

LOW WILL DEPART TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE...TAPERING OFF SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST...WITH GFS LINGERING SNOW ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT A
LITTLE PAST 06Z TUESDAY. RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY DURING THE
DAY WITH ANOTHER COLD DAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE
THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT AREA WITH DRY COLD WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY. A WEAK LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING OUR
FIRST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. ON WEDNESDAY A STRONGER LOW CROSSES THE AREA...SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS. EXTENDED FORECAST WILL GENERALLY BE ACTIVE WITH
SEVERAL WEAK LOWS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AND
COLD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SOME NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS WEDNESDAY WHEN LOW WILL BE
CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING IS
PRODUCING SOME AREA OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW. EXPECTING
MVFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR BY 15Z SUNDAY. AFTER 15Z SUNDAY
EXPECTING INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MOVES EAST INTO THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY BY 06Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z MONDAY-09Z MONDAY...VFR.

09Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA.

12Z THURSDAY-00Z FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR VTZ001>007-016-017.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     VTZ008>012-018-019.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ028>031-087.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS/KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010903
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
403 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY...TAPERING OFF LATE MONDAY
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 403 AM EST SUNDAY...SURFACE RIDGING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL KEEP TODAY DRY AND COLD. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN
THE NEGATIVE UPPER TEENS. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO UPPER
TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. OVERALL TODAY WILL BE THE CALM
BEFORE THE STORM...COLD, BUT CALM/BENIGN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 403 AM EST SUNDAY...MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THIS EVENING. MODELS, ESPECIALLY THE NAM AND GFS, SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT ON TRACK AND PWAT/QPF AMOUNTS. EXPECT WARM AIR ADVECTION
NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW TO SPREAD LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY
MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE STRONG WAA AND CLOUDS TO
MODERATE MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE, AND THE TIME IT WILL TAKE FOR INCOMING MOISTURE TO
SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS, EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. MIN
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR ZERO TO NEGATIVE UPPER TEENS.

HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING...THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL REMAIN POSITIVELY TILTED...HELPING TO BRING AREAS OF STRONG
DEFORMATION OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. STRONG WAA ALOFT,
COMBINES WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MONDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL. PWATS INCREASE TO NEARLY DOUBLE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN
FOR EARLY FEBRUARY MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL DURING THIS TIME WITH 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

SNOWFALL AMTS TO RANGE FROM 8-14" FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES IN VERMONT 4-8" ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACKS/CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY INTO SRN CALEDONIA COUNTY...AND THEN 2-4" ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER.

LOW WILL DEPART TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE...TAPERING OFF SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST...WITH GFS LINGERING SNOW ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT A
LITTLE PAST 06Z TUESDAY. RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY DURING THE
DAY WITH ANOTHER COLD DAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE
THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT AREA WITH DRY COLD WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY. A WEAK LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING OUR
FIRST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. ON WEDNESDAY A STRONGER LOW CROSSES THE AREA...SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS. EXTENDED FORECAST WILL GENERALLY BE ACTIVE WITH
SEVERAL WEAK LOWS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AND
COLD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SOME NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS WEDNESDAY WHEN LOW WILL BE
CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING IS
PRODUCING SOME AREA OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW. EXPECTING
MVFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR BY 15Z SUNDAY. AFTER 15Z SUNDAY
EXPECTING INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MOVES EAST INTO THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY BY 06Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z MONDAY-09Z MONDAY...VFR.

09Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA.

12Z THURSDAY-00Z FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR VTZ001>007-016-017.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     VTZ008>012-018-019.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ028>031-087.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...BANACOS/KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/NEILES



000
FXUS61 KALY 010817
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
317 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. IT WILL
NOT BE AS COLD AS SATURDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT
AND MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 300 AM...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER THE EAST END
OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL NEAR THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ
WESTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. A 1030 HPA OR SFC
ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN FROM SE OF JAMES BAY. THE SKIES MAY
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA. H850
TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...AND -8C TO
-10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
SATURDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY 5 TO 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST
AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT AND MONDAY A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EVENT IS
EXPECTED AS A NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN
STREAM MOISTURE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE
SUNRISE MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING WITH SNOW
LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY EVENING.

ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AS
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE THIS EVENING TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
THEN PASSES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND ON MONDAY. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE ISTENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS OUR REGION AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AT H7 AROUND 18Z ON MONDAY
AND A DECENT THETA E PLUME H10-H8 DURING MONDAY MORNING WHEN THE
SNOW SHOULD BE THE HEAVIEST. PLUME DIAGRAMS FOR ALBANY ARE
CENTERED BTWN 0.6 AND 1.0 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS SHOULD BE QUITE HIGH FOR THIS STORM GENERALLY IN THE
15-20:1 RANGE. WITH ALL OF THIS TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION HAVE
UPGRADED THE FINAL FOUR ZONES UP NORTH TO A WARNING SUCH THAT NOW
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS IN A WARNING. EXPECTED SNOWFALL TOTALS
ARE 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES WITH 8 TO 16
INCHES ELSEWHERE. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BEHIND THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR DESCENDS ACROSS OUR REGION.
THIS ALONG WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP TO ZERO OR
BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO AND
COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WE MAY ONCE AGAIN NEED
WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ON TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO OUR REGION AND
THEN PASS TO OUR EAST LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE VERY COLD WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW...MAINLY LIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT...PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THU...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ONE THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON REGARDING THIS CLIPPER...IS THAT THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR LATER WED INTO THU AS TO WHETHER SOME
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY/MOISTURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NW
MEXICO...TRANSLATES NORTHEAST AND BECOMES PARTIALLY PHASED WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...AS THE 00Z/01 ECMWF
AND A FEW GEFS MEMBERS SUGGEST...THAN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SNOW...AND POSSIBLY GREATER AMOUNTS COULD RESULT SOMETIME BETWEEN
WED AND EARLY FRI...BUT THIS APPEARS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY AT
THIS TIME.

ASSUMING THE CLIPPER SYSTEM REMAINS WEAK/PROGRESSIVE AND EXITS TO
THE EAST...AN ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS
ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRI INTO
EARLY SAT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION HEADING INTO LATE SAT AND SUN WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SOME SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING
APPROACHING 20. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO...WITH WIND CHILLS GENERALLY 5 BELOW ZERO TO 15 BELOW
ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...PASSING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
TAF SITES BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS...AND A
FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF...AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS FRONT. THEN...A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
SPREAD STEADY SNOW FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES
BEGINNING BETWEEN 03Z-07Z/MON.

LOW CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD
KGFL/KALB AND KPSF THROUGH 08Z/SUN...AND MAY REACH KPOU CLOSER TO
08Z-10Z/SUN. SOME FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT KALB AND
KPSF. CIGS SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN VFR WITH BASES OF 3500-5000 FT
AGL...BUT COULD OCCASIONALLY APPROACH MVFR...WITH MVFR CIGS MORE
LIKELY AT KPSF.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT...BKN
CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES ON SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 03Z MONDAY. LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE N-NE WINDS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AT SPEEDS OF AROUND 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA.

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW ICE
TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES
OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...IRL/KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KALY 010817
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
317 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. IT WILL
NOT BE AS COLD AS SATURDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT
AND MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 300 AM...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER THE EAST END
OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL NEAR THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ
WESTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. A 1030 HPA OR SFC
ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN FROM SE OF JAMES BAY. THE SKIES MAY
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA. H850
TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...AND -8C TO
-10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
SATURDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY 5 TO 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST
AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT AND MONDAY A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EVENT IS
EXPECTED AS A NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN
STREAM MOISTURE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE
SUNRISE MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING WITH SNOW
LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY EVENING.

ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AS
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE THIS EVENING TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
THEN PASSES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND ON MONDAY. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE ISTENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS OUR REGION AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AT H7 AROUND 18Z ON MONDAY
AND A DECENT THETA E PLUME H10-H8 DURING MONDAY MORNING WHEN THE
SNOW SHOULD BE THE HEAVIEST. PLUME DIAGRAMS FOR ALBANY ARE
CENTERED BTWN 0.6 AND 1.0 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS SHOULD BE QUITE HIGH FOR THIS STORM GENERALLY IN THE
15-20:1 RANGE. WITH ALL OF THIS TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION HAVE
UPGRADED THE FINAL FOUR ZONES UP NORTH TO A WARNING SUCH THAT NOW
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS IN A WARNING. EXPECTED SNOWFALL TOTALS
ARE 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES WITH 8 TO 16
INCHES ELSEWHERE. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BEHIND THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR DESCENDS ACROSS OUR REGION.
THIS ALONG WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP TO ZERO OR
BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO AND
COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WE MAY ONCE AGAIN NEED
WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ON TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO OUR REGION AND
THEN PASS TO OUR EAST LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE VERY COLD WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW...MAINLY LIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT...PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THU...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ONE THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON REGARDING THIS CLIPPER...IS THAT THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR LATER WED INTO THU AS TO WHETHER SOME
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY/MOISTURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NW
MEXICO...TRANSLATES NORTHEAST AND BECOMES PARTIALLY PHASED WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...AS THE 00Z/01 ECMWF
AND A FEW GEFS MEMBERS SUGGEST...THAN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SNOW...AND POSSIBLY GREATER AMOUNTS COULD RESULT SOMETIME BETWEEN
WED AND EARLY FRI...BUT THIS APPEARS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY AT
THIS TIME.

ASSUMING THE CLIPPER SYSTEM REMAINS WEAK/PROGRESSIVE AND EXITS TO
THE EAST...AN ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS
ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRI INTO
EARLY SAT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION HEADING INTO LATE SAT AND SUN WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SOME SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING
APPROACHING 20. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO...WITH WIND CHILLS GENERALLY 5 BELOW ZERO TO 15 BELOW
ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...PASSING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
TAF SITES BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS...AND A
FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF...AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS FRONT. THEN...A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
SPREAD STEADY SNOW FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES
BEGINNING BETWEEN 03Z-07Z/MON.

LOW CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD
KGFL/KALB AND KPSF THROUGH 08Z/SUN...AND MAY REACH KPOU CLOSER TO
08Z-10Z/SUN. SOME FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT KALB AND
KPSF. CIGS SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN VFR WITH BASES OF 3500-5000 FT
AGL...BUT COULD OCCASIONALLY APPROACH MVFR...WITH MVFR CIGS MORE
LIKELY AT KPSF.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT...BKN
CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES ON SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 03Z MONDAY. LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE N-NE WINDS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AT SPEEDS OF AROUND 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA.

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW ICE
TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES
OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...IRL/KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KALY 010817
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
317 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. IT WILL
NOT BE AS COLD AS SATURDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT
AND MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 300 AM...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER THE EAST END
OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL NEAR THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ
WESTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. A 1030 HPA OR SFC
ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN FROM SE OF JAMES BAY. THE SKIES MAY
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA. H850
TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...AND -8C TO
-10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
SATURDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY 5 TO 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST
AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT AND MONDAY A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EVENT IS
EXPECTED AS A NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN
STREAM MOISTURE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE
SUNRISE MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING WITH SNOW
LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY EVENING.

ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AS
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE THIS EVENING TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
THEN PASSES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND ON MONDAY. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE ISTENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS OUR REGION AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AT H7 AROUND 18Z ON MONDAY
AND A DECENT THETA E PLUME H10-H8 DURING MONDAY MORNING WHEN THE
SNOW SHOULD BE THE HEAVIEST. PLUME DIAGRAMS FOR ALBANY ARE
CENTERED BTWN 0.6 AND 1.0 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS SHOULD BE QUITE HIGH FOR THIS STORM GENERALLY IN THE
15-20:1 RANGE. WITH ALL OF THIS TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION HAVE
UPGRADED THE FINAL FOUR ZONES UP NORTH TO A WARNING SUCH THAT NOW
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS IN A WARNING. EXPECTED SNOWFALL TOTALS
ARE 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES WITH 8 TO 16
INCHES ELSEWHERE. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BEHIND THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR DESCENDS ACROSS OUR REGION.
THIS ALONG WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP TO ZERO OR
BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO AND
COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WE MAY ONCE AGAIN NEED
WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ON TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO OUR REGION AND
THEN PASS TO OUR EAST LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE VERY COLD WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW...MAINLY LIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT...PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THU...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ONE THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON REGARDING THIS CLIPPER...IS THAT THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR LATER WED INTO THU AS TO WHETHER SOME
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY/MOISTURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NW
MEXICO...TRANSLATES NORTHEAST AND BECOMES PARTIALLY PHASED WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...AS THE 00Z/01 ECMWF
AND A FEW GEFS MEMBERS SUGGEST...THAN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SNOW...AND POSSIBLY GREATER AMOUNTS COULD RESULT SOMETIME BETWEEN
WED AND EARLY FRI...BUT THIS APPEARS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY AT
THIS TIME.

ASSUMING THE CLIPPER SYSTEM REMAINS WEAK/PROGRESSIVE AND EXITS TO
THE EAST...AN ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS
ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRI INTO
EARLY SAT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION HEADING INTO LATE SAT AND SUN WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SOME SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING
APPROACHING 20. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO...WITH WIND CHILLS GENERALLY 5 BELOW ZERO TO 15 BELOW
ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...PASSING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
TAF SITES BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS...AND A
FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF...AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS FRONT. THEN...A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
SPREAD STEADY SNOW FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES
BEGINNING BETWEEN 03Z-07Z/MON.

LOW CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD
KGFL/KALB AND KPSF THROUGH 08Z/SUN...AND MAY REACH KPOU CLOSER TO
08Z-10Z/SUN. SOME FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT KALB AND
KPSF. CIGS SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN VFR WITH BASES OF 3500-5000 FT
AGL...BUT COULD OCCASIONALLY APPROACH MVFR...WITH MVFR CIGS MORE
LIKELY AT KPSF.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT...BKN
CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES ON SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 03Z MONDAY. LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE N-NE WINDS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AT SPEEDS OF AROUND 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA.

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW ICE
TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES
OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...IRL/KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KALY 010817
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
317 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. IT WILL
NOT BE AS COLD AS SATURDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT
AND MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 300 AM...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER THE EAST END
OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL NEAR THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ
WESTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. A 1030 HPA OR SFC
ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN FROM SE OF JAMES BAY. THE SKIES MAY
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA. H850
TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...AND -8C TO
-10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
SATURDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY 5 TO 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST
AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT AND MONDAY A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EVENT IS
EXPECTED AS A NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN
STREAM MOISTURE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE
SUNRISE MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING WITH SNOW
LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY EVENING.

ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AS
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE THIS EVENING TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
THEN PASSES SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND ON MONDAY. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE ISTENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS OUR REGION AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AT H7 AROUND 18Z ON MONDAY
AND A DECENT THETA E PLUME H10-H8 DURING MONDAY MORNING WHEN THE
SNOW SHOULD BE THE HEAVIEST. PLUME DIAGRAMS FOR ALBANY ARE
CENTERED BTWN 0.6 AND 1.0 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS SHOULD BE QUITE HIGH FOR THIS STORM GENERALLY IN THE
15-20:1 RANGE. WITH ALL OF THIS TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION HAVE
UPGRADED THE FINAL FOUR ZONES UP NORTH TO A WARNING SUCH THAT NOW
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS IN A WARNING. EXPECTED SNOWFALL TOTALS
ARE 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES WITH 8 TO 16
INCHES ELSEWHERE. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

BEHIND THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR DESCENDS ACROSS OUR REGION.
THIS ALONG WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP TO ZERO OR
BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO AND
COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WE MAY ONCE AGAIN NEED
WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ON TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO OUR REGION AND
THEN PASS TO OUR EAST LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE VERY COLD WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW...MAINLY LIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT...PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THU...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ONE THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON REGARDING THIS CLIPPER...IS THAT THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR LATER WED INTO THU AS TO WHETHER SOME
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY/MOISTURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NW
MEXICO...TRANSLATES NORTHEAST AND BECOMES PARTIALLY PHASED WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...AS THE 00Z/01 ECMWF
AND A FEW GEFS MEMBERS SUGGEST...THAN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SNOW...AND POSSIBLY GREATER AMOUNTS COULD RESULT SOMETIME BETWEEN
WED AND EARLY FRI...BUT THIS APPEARS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY AT
THIS TIME.

ASSUMING THE CLIPPER SYSTEM REMAINS WEAK/PROGRESSIVE AND EXITS TO
THE EAST...AN ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS
ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRI INTO
EARLY SAT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION HEADING INTO LATE SAT AND SUN WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SOME SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING
APPROACHING 20. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO...WITH WIND CHILLS GENERALLY 5 BELOW ZERO TO 15 BELOW
ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...PASSING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
TAF SITES BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS...AND A
FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF...AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS FRONT. THEN...A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
SPREAD STEADY SNOW FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES
BEGINNING BETWEEN 03Z-07Z/MON.

LOW CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD
KGFL/KALB AND KPSF THROUGH 08Z/SUN...AND MAY REACH KPOU CLOSER TO
08Z-10Z/SUN. SOME FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT KALB AND
KPSF. CIGS SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN VFR WITH BASES OF 3500-5000 FT
AGL...BUT COULD OCCASIONALLY APPROACH MVFR...WITH MVFR CIGS MORE
LIKELY AT KPSF.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT...BKN
CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES ON SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 03Z MONDAY. LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE N-NE WINDS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AT SPEEDS OF AROUND 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA.

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW ICE
TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES
OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...IRL/KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KBTV 010653
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
153 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. OTHERWISE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND
PASS JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
BEGINNING IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...AND ANY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1137 PM EST SATURDAY...WITH THE FORECAST GENERALLY IN GOOD
SHAPE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. INCREASING OVERCAST CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES MOVING INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS FORECAST. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED FROM THESE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES OVERNIGHT. ONLY CHANGE
MADE WAS TO BLEND IN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS TO THE GOING FORECAST.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 314 PM SATURDAY FOLLOWS...

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AREAWIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM SERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NEW YORK.
WE/VE SEEN WIND CHILL VALUES OF -10F TO -20F THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
(WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO)...BUT WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW NW
WINDS TO QUICKLY ABATE NEAR/JUST AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. A
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT
SEWD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL SWLY
FLOW WILL BRING STRATUS IN FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH A
CHANCE OF A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS 03-09Z. GIVEN DRY
PBL CONDITIONS (2-M DEWPOINTS -10F TO -15F)...IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY FLURRIES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...CLOSER TO AVAILABLE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM LAKE ONTARIO. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING AS WELL...SO UPPER SUPPORT FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME STRATUS/ALTOSTRATUS APPEARS LIMITED IN
VERMONT. AS A CONSEQUENCE...BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN VERMONT WITH LATER ARRIVAL/LESSER CLOUD COVER. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM -5F TO -15F IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO
+5F TO -5F MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. IN AREAS SEEING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS...SOME OF THESE LOWS WILL OCCUR BY MIDNIGHT WITH NEAR
STEADY TEMPERATURES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

ON SUNDAY...WILL SEE PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AS SFC RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM NWRN ONTARIO SEWD INTO NRN NY AND VERMONT. LOOKING FOR LIGHT
N-NW WINDS AND SOME RENEWED LOW-LEVEL CAA TO OFFSET NORMAL DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TRENDS. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY
BUT CONTINUING BELOW AVERAGE FOR FEBRUARY 1ST...WITH AFTN VALUES
GENERALLY RANGING FROM +8 TO +15F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 314 PM EST SATURDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT BEGINS TRANQUIL WITH
INCREASING MID-UPPER CLOUDS THRU MIDNIGHT AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
HOLDS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. NO PROBLEM FOR ANY
TRAVEL PLANS DURING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG
STRONG SFC-850MB QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY EWD ACROSS PA SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS POSITIVE
TILT...BUT SHOULD HELP FOCUS DOWNSTREAM AREA OF 850-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING AND STRONG UPWARD MOTION TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW TRACK. THE 12Z NWP GUIDANCE SUITE HAS
CONTINUED THE NWD SHIFT OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED QPF
VALUES...WITH THE 12Z GFS GENERALLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
POTENTIAL SNOWFALL IN OUR REGION (0.5-0.7" LIQUID EQUIV). STRONG
850-700MB WAA...A PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MONDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...AND SATURATION IN A 7000FT DEEP DENDRITE
GROWTH LAYER (PER BOTH NAM/GFS POINT SOUNDINGS) SUGGESTS OPTIMIZED
DYNAMICS AND SNOW MICROPHYSICS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN MONDAY. GIVEN COLD COLUMN AND
DENDRITE GROWTH...LOOKING AT SNOW RATIOS POTENTIALLY 18:1 TO 20:1
THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENT...SO GOOD "FLUFF FACTOR" TO PILE UP THE
SNOW (THOUGH PERHAPS HAVING LESS OVERALL IMPACT THAN CORRESPONDING
AMTS OF HEAVY/WET SNOW WOULD). COUNTERING THE SNOW WILL BE DRY PBL
CONDITIONS...SO WE/LL NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONG SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION GRADIENT SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

STEADY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY
AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN TIME FOR THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. MAXIMIZED UVV OCCURS 15-20Z MONDAY TIME
FRAME...AND COULD SEE 1+"/HR SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
S-CENTRAL VERMONT DURING THAT TIME FRAME. LOOKING FOR SNOWFALL
AMTS TO RANGE FROM 8-10" FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN
VERMONT 4-8" ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACKS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO
SRN CALEDONIA COUNTY...AND THEN 2-4" ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR ALL OF CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL
VERMONT 09Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FURTHER NORTH...PERHAPS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS THE EVENT APPROACHES AND MESOSCALE DETAILS AND LOW TRACK
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. GIVEN PROJECTED LOW SNOW DENSITY, THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE TO TRAVEL THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY WITH
SNOWCOVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW. WORST OF
THE TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN VERMONT.

ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW DEPARTS THROUGH THE
GULF OF MAINE MONDAY EVENING. SHOULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS (SERN VT)...AND FALLING GENERALLY BELOW ZERO MONDAY
NIGHT WITH FRESH SNOWPACK AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE
THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT AREA WITH DRY COLD WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY. A WEAK LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING OUR
FIRST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. ON WEDNESDAY A STRONGER LOW CROSSES THE AREA...SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS. EXTENDED FORECAST WILL GENERALLY BE ACTIVE WITH
SEVERAL WEAK LOWS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AND
COLD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SOME NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS WEDNESDAY WHEN LOW WILL BE
CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING IS
PRODUCING SOME AREA OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW. EXPECTING
MVFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR BY 15Z SUNDAY. AFTER 15Z SUNDAY
EXPECTING INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MOVES EAST INTO THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY BY 06Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z MONDAY-09Z MONDAY...VFR.

09Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA.

12Z THURSDAY-00Z FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR VTZ008>012-018-019.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR NYZ034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010653
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
153 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. OTHERWISE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND
PASS JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
BEGINNING IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...AND ANY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1137 PM EST SATURDAY...WITH THE FORECAST GENERALLY IN GOOD
SHAPE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. INCREASING OVERCAST CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES MOVING INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS FORECAST. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED FROM THESE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES OVERNIGHT. ONLY CHANGE
MADE WAS TO BLEND IN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS TO THE GOING FORECAST.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 314 PM SATURDAY FOLLOWS...

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AREAWIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM SERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NEW YORK.
WE/VE SEEN WIND CHILL VALUES OF -10F TO -20F THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
(WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO)...BUT WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW NW
WINDS TO QUICKLY ABATE NEAR/JUST AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. A
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT
SEWD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL SWLY
FLOW WILL BRING STRATUS IN FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH A
CHANCE OF A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS 03-09Z. GIVEN DRY
PBL CONDITIONS (2-M DEWPOINTS -10F TO -15F)...IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY FLURRIES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...CLOSER TO AVAILABLE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM LAKE ONTARIO. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING AS WELL...SO UPPER SUPPORT FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME STRATUS/ALTOSTRATUS APPEARS LIMITED IN
VERMONT. AS A CONSEQUENCE...BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN VERMONT WITH LATER ARRIVAL/LESSER CLOUD COVER. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM -5F TO -15F IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO
+5F TO -5F MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. IN AREAS SEEING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS...SOME OF THESE LOWS WILL OCCUR BY MIDNIGHT WITH NEAR
STEADY TEMPERATURES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

ON SUNDAY...WILL SEE PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AS SFC RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM NWRN ONTARIO SEWD INTO NRN NY AND VERMONT. LOOKING FOR LIGHT
N-NW WINDS AND SOME RENEWED LOW-LEVEL CAA TO OFFSET NORMAL DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TRENDS. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY
BUT CONTINUING BELOW AVERAGE FOR FEBRUARY 1ST...WITH AFTN VALUES
GENERALLY RANGING FROM +8 TO +15F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 314 PM EST SATURDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT BEGINS TRANQUIL WITH
INCREASING MID-UPPER CLOUDS THRU MIDNIGHT AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
HOLDS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. NO PROBLEM FOR ANY
TRAVEL PLANS DURING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG
STRONG SFC-850MB QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY EWD ACROSS PA SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS POSITIVE
TILT...BUT SHOULD HELP FOCUS DOWNSTREAM AREA OF 850-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING AND STRONG UPWARD MOTION TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW TRACK. THE 12Z NWP GUIDANCE SUITE HAS
CONTINUED THE NWD SHIFT OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED QPF
VALUES...WITH THE 12Z GFS GENERALLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
POTENTIAL SNOWFALL IN OUR REGION (0.5-0.7" LIQUID EQUIV). STRONG
850-700MB WAA...A PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MONDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...AND SATURATION IN A 7000FT DEEP DENDRITE
GROWTH LAYER (PER BOTH NAM/GFS POINT SOUNDINGS) SUGGESTS OPTIMIZED
DYNAMICS AND SNOW MICROPHYSICS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN MONDAY. GIVEN COLD COLUMN AND
DENDRITE GROWTH...LOOKING AT SNOW RATIOS POTENTIALLY 18:1 TO 20:1
THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENT...SO GOOD "FLUFF FACTOR" TO PILE UP THE
SNOW (THOUGH PERHAPS HAVING LESS OVERALL IMPACT THAN CORRESPONDING
AMTS OF HEAVY/WET SNOW WOULD). COUNTERING THE SNOW WILL BE DRY PBL
CONDITIONS...SO WE/LL NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONG SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION GRADIENT SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

STEADY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY
AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN TIME FOR THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. MAXIMIZED UVV OCCURS 15-20Z MONDAY TIME
FRAME...AND COULD SEE 1+"/HR SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
S-CENTRAL VERMONT DURING THAT TIME FRAME. LOOKING FOR SNOWFALL
AMTS TO RANGE FROM 8-10" FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN
VERMONT 4-8" ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACKS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO
SRN CALEDONIA COUNTY...AND THEN 2-4" ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR ALL OF CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL
VERMONT 09Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FURTHER NORTH...PERHAPS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS THE EVENT APPROACHES AND MESOSCALE DETAILS AND LOW TRACK
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. GIVEN PROJECTED LOW SNOW DENSITY, THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE TO TRAVEL THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY WITH
SNOWCOVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW. WORST OF
THE TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN VERMONT.

ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW DEPARTS THROUGH THE
GULF OF MAINE MONDAY EVENING. SHOULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS (SERN VT)...AND FALLING GENERALLY BELOW ZERO MONDAY
NIGHT WITH FRESH SNOWPACK AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE
THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT AREA WITH DRY COLD WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY. A WEAK LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING OUR
FIRST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. ON WEDNESDAY A STRONGER LOW CROSSES THE AREA...SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS. EXTENDED FORECAST WILL GENERALLY BE ACTIVE WITH
SEVERAL WEAK LOWS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AND
COLD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SOME NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS WEDNESDAY WHEN LOW WILL BE
CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING IS
PRODUCING SOME AREA OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW. EXPECTING
MVFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR BY 15Z SUNDAY. AFTER 15Z SUNDAY
EXPECTING INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MOVES EAST INTO THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY BY 06Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z MONDAY-09Z MONDAY...VFR.

09Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA.

12Z THURSDAY-00Z FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR VTZ008>012-018-019.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR NYZ034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010653
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
153 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. OTHERWISE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND
PASS JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
BEGINNING IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...AND ANY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1137 PM EST SATURDAY...WITH THE FORECAST GENERALLY IN GOOD
SHAPE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. INCREASING OVERCAST CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES MOVING INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS FORECAST. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED FROM THESE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES OVERNIGHT. ONLY CHANGE
MADE WAS TO BLEND IN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS TO THE GOING FORECAST.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 314 PM SATURDAY FOLLOWS...

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AREAWIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM SERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NEW YORK.
WE/VE SEEN WIND CHILL VALUES OF -10F TO -20F THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
(WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO)...BUT WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW NW
WINDS TO QUICKLY ABATE NEAR/JUST AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. A
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT
SEWD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL SWLY
FLOW WILL BRING STRATUS IN FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH A
CHANCE OF A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS 03-09Z. GIVEN DRY
PBL CONDITIONS (2-M DEWPOINTS -10F TO -15F)...IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY FLURRIES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...CLOSER TO AVAILABLE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM LAKE ONTARIO. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING AS WELL...SO UPPER SUPPORT FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME STRATUS/ALTOSTRATUS APPEARS LIMITED IN
VERMONT. AS A CONSEQUENCE...BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN VERMONT WITH LATER ARRIVAL/LESSER CLOUD COVER. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM -5F TO -15F IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO
+5F TO -5F MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. IN AREAS SEEING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS...SOME OF THESE LOWS WILL OCCUR BY MIDNIGHT WITH NEAR
STEADY TEMPERATURES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

ON SUNDAY...WILL SEE PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AS SFC RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM NWRN ONTARIO SEWD INTO NRN NY AND VERMONT. LOOKING FOR LIGHT
N-NW WINDS AND SOME RENEWED LOW-LEVEL CAA TO OFFSET NORMAL DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TRENDS. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY
BUT CONTINUING BELOW AVERAGE FOR FEBRUARY 1ST...WITH AFTN VALUES
GENERALLY RANGING FROM +8 TO +15F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 314 PM EST SATURDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT BEGINS TRANQUIL WITH
INCREASING MID-UPPER CLOUDS THRU MIDNIGHT AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
HOLDS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. NO PROBLEM FOR ANY
TRAVEL PLANS DURING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG
STRONG SFC-850MB QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY EWD ACROSS PA SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS POSITIVE
TILT...BUT SHOULD HELP FOCUS DOWNSTREAM AREA OF 850-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING AND STRONG UPWARD MOTION TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW TRACK. THE 12Z NWP GUIDANCE SUITE HAS
CONTINUED THE NWD SHIFT OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED QPF
VALUES...WITH THE 12Z GFS GENERALLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
POTENTIAL SNOWFALL IN OUR REGION (0.5-0.7" LIQUID EQUIV). STRONG
850-700MB WAA...A PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MONDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...AND SATURATION IN A 7000FT DEEP DENDRITE
GROWTH LAYER (PER BOTH NAM/GFS POINT SOUNDINGS) SUGGESTS OPTIMIZED
DYNAMICS AND SNOW MICROPHYSICS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN MONDAY. GIVEN COLD COLUMN AND
DENDRITE GROWTH...LOOKING AT SNOW RATIOS POTENTIALLY 18:1 TO 20:1
THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENT...SO GOOD "FLUFF FACTOR" TO PILE UP THE
SNOW (THOUGH PERHAPS HAVING LESS OVERALL IMPACT THAN CORRESPONDING
AMTS OF HEAVY/WET SNOW WOULD). COUNTERING THE SNOW WILL BE DRY PBL
CONDITIONS...SO WE/LL NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONG SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION GRADIENT SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

STEADY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY
AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN TIME FOR THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. MAXIMIZED UVV OCCURS 15-20Z MONDAY TIME
FRAME...AND COULD SEE 1+"/HR SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
S-CENTRAL VERMONT DURING THAT TIME FRAME. LOOKING FOR SNOWFALL
AMTS TO RANGE FROM 8-10" FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN
VERMONT 4-8" ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACKS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO
SRN CALEDONIA COUNTY...AND THEN 2-4" ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR ALL OF CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL
VERMONT 09Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FURTHER NORTH...PERHAPS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS THE EVENT APPROACHES AND MESOSCALE DETAILS AND LOW TRACK
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. GIVEN PROJECTED LOW SNOW DENSITY, THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE TO TRAVEL THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY WITH
SNOWCOVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW. WORST OF
THE TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN VERMONT.

ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW DEPARTS THROUGH THE
GULF OF MAINE MONDAY EVENING. SHOULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS (SERN VT)...AND FALLING GENERALLY BELOW ZERO MONDAY
NIGHT WITH FRESH SNOWPACK AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE
THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT AREA WITH DRY COLD WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY. A WEAK LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING OUR
FIRST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. ON WEDNESDAY A STRONGER LOW CROSSES THE AREA...SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS. EXTENDED FORECAST WILL GENERALLY BE ACTIVE WITH
SEVERAL WEAK LOWS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AND
COLD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SOME NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS WEDNESDAY WHEN LOW WILL BE
CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING IS
PRODUCING SOME AREA OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW. EXPECTING
MVFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR BY 15Z SUNDAY. AFTER 15Z SUNDAY
EXPECTING INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MOVES EAST INTO THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY BY 06Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z MONDAY-09Z MONDAY...VFR.

09Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA.

12Z THURSDAY-00Z FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR VTZ008>012-018-019.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR NYZ034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/NEILES



000
FXUS61 KALY 010533
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1233 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. IT
WILL NOT BE AS COLD...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1145 PM EST...CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FA. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE CROSSING OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AND
DRY LOW LEVELS...LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR. CANNOT RULE OUT A SNOW
SHOWER OR FLURRY FOR NORTHERN AREAS...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

IN AREAS THAT ARE STILL CLEAR...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS THANKS TO DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER...ONCE CLOUDS ARRIVE...TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF AND POSSIBLY
EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES. MIN TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE GLENS FALLS AREA.

TOMORROW...THE MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL NEAR THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ WESTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.  A 1030 HPA OR SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN
FROM SE OF JAMES BAY.  THE SKIES MAY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY...AND -8C TO -10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  MAX
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY
10 TO 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U20S FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A VIGOROUS
NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.


ARCTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ON MONDAY. THERE
HAS BEEN GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT HEADS OFFSHORE. THE GFS NOW HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE COAST
ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. THE GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSIVE WITH AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT.

SNOW RATIOS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED
TO START OUT HIGH THEN TRENDED TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...WHILE RATIOS
WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY AS YOU
HEAD NORTHWARD. THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILISTIC FOR SNOW RATIOS INDICATE
60+% FOR ALBANY AND 64+% FOR GLENS FALLS TO HAVE RATIOS OF 15:1 OR
GREATER.

ALL THIS LEADS TO CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING AND
TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

BASED ON THE FORECASTED ONSET OF SNOW HAVE MADE THE START TIME FOR
THE WARNING 9 PM SUNDAY AND THE WATCH AT MIDNIGHT. BOTH RUN
THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY.

THE HEAVIEST MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM ABOUT 09Z-15Z
MONDAY...IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST AT 60-70 KNOTS AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF LATE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALONG
WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DROP TO ZERO OR BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO AND COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAY NEED
WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND QUICKLY SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER
COLD DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS...15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IS
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE
LOW 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...PASSING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
TAF SITES BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS...AND A
FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF...AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS FRONT. THEN...A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
SPREAD STEADY SNOW FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES
BEGINNING BETWEEN 03Z-07Z/MON.

LOW CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD
KGFL/KALB AND KPSF THROUGH 08Z/SUN...AND MAY REACH KPOU CLOSER TO
08Z-10Z/SUN. SOME FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT KALB AND
KPSF. CIGS SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN VFR WITH BASES OF 3500-5000 FT
AGL...BUT COULD OCCASIONALLY APPROACH MVFR...WITH MVFR CIGS MORE
LIKELY AT KPSF.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT...BKN
CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES ON SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 03Z MONDAY. LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE N-NE WINDS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AT SPEEDS OF AROUND 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ICE THICKEN ON
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ALBANY SEASON SNOWFALL TOTAL THROUGH JANUARY 30TH STANDS AT 40 INCHES
WHICH IS 6.4 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KALY 010533
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1233 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. IT
WILL NOT BE AS COLD...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1145 PM EST...CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FA. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE CROSSING OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AND
DRY LOW LEVELS...LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR. CANNOT RULE OUT A SNOW
SHOWER OR FLURRY FOR NORTHERN AREAS...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

IN AREAS THAT ARE STILL CLEAR...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS THANKS TO DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER...ONCE CLOUDS ARRIVE...TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF AND POSSIBLY
EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES. MIN TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE GLENS FALLS AREA.

TOMORROW...THE MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL NEAR THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ WESTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.  A 1030 HPA OR SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN
FROM SE OF JAMES BAY.  THE SKIES MAY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY...AND -8C TO -10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  MAX
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY
10 TO 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U20S FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A VIGOROUS
NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.


ARCTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ON MONDAY. THERE
HAS BEEN GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT HEADS OFFSHORE. THE GFS NOW HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE COAST
ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. THE GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSIVE WITH AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT.

SNOW RATIOS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED
TO START OUT HIGH THEN TRENDED TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...WHILE RATIOS
WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY AS YOU
HEAD NORTHWARD. THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILISTIC FOR SNOW RATIOS INDICATE
60+% FOR ALBANY AND 64+% FOR GLENS FALLS TO HAVE RATIOS OF 15:1 OR
GREATER.

ALL THIS LEADS TO CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING AND
TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

BASED ON THE FORECASTED ONSET OF SNOW HAVE MADE THE START TIME FOR
THE WARNING 9 PM SUNDAY AND THE WATCH AT MIDNIGHT. BOTH RUN
THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY.

THE HEAVIEST MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM ABOUT 09Z-15Z
MONDAY...IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST AT 60-70 KNOTS AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF LATE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALONG
WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DROP TO ZERO OR BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO AND COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAY NEED
WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND QUICKLY SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER
COLD DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS...15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IS
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE
LOW 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...PASSING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
TAF SITES BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS...AND A
FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF...AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS FRONT. THEN...A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
SPREAD STEADY SNOW FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES
BEGINNING BETWEEN 03Z-07Z/MON.

LOW CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD
KGFL/KALB AND KPSF THROUGH 08Z/SUN...AND MAY REACH KPOU CLOSER TO
08Z-10Z/SUN. SOME FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT KALB AND
KPSF. CIGS SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN VFR WITH BASES OF 3500-5000 FT
AGL...BUT COULD OCCASIONALLY APPROACH MVFR...WITH MVFR CIGS MORE
LIKELY AT KPSF.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT...BKN
CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES ON SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 03Z MONDAY. LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE N-NE WINDS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AT SPEEDS OF AROUND 5 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ICE THICKEN ON
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ALBANY SEASON SNOWFALL TOTAL THROUGH JANUARY 30TH STANDS AT 40 INCHES
WHICH IS 6.4 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KALY 010445
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1145 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. IT
WILL NOT BE AS COLD...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1145 PM EST...CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FA. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE CROSSING OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AND
DRY LOW LEVELS...LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR. CANNOT RULE OUT A SNOW
SHOWER OR FLURRY FOR NORTHERN AREAS...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

IN AREAS THAT ARE STILL CLEAR...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS THANKS TO DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER...ONCE CLOUDS ARRIVE...TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF AND POSSIBLY
EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES. MIN TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE GLENS FALLS AREA.

TOMORROW...THE MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL NEAR THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ WESTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.  A 1030 HPA OR SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN
FROM SE OF JAMES BAY.  THE SKIES MAY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY...AND -8C TO -10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  MAX
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY
10 TO 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U20S FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A VIGOROUS
NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.


ARCTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ON MONDAY. THERE
HAS BEEN GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT HEADS OFFSHORE. THE GFS NOW HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE COAST
ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. THE GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSIVE WITH AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT.

SNOW RATIOS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED
TO START OUT HIGH THEN TRENDED TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...WHILE RATIOS
WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY AS YOU
HEAD NORTHWARD. THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILISTIC FOR SNOW RATIOS INDICATE
60+% FOR ALBANY AND 64+% FOR GLENS FALLS TO HAVE RATIOS OF 15:1 OR
GREATER.

ALL THIS LEADS TO CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING AND
TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

BASED ON THE FORECASTED ONSET OF SNOW HAVE MADE THE START TIME FOR
THE WARNING 9 PM SUNDAY AND THE WATCH AT MIDNIGHT. BOTH RUN
THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY.

THE HEAVIEST MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM ABOUT 09Z-15Z
MONDAY...IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST AT 60-70 KNOTS AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF LATE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALONG
WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DROP TO ZERO OR BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO AND COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAY NEED
WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND QUICKLY SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER
COLD DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS...15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IS
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE
LOW 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THANKS TO A MOISTURE STARVED
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. W-NW WINDS AT
5-10 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH AND BE LIGHT AND NEARLY CALM
FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT...BKN
CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES ON SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. LIGHT
N-NE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 5 KTS FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ICE THICKEN ON
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ALBANY SEASON SNOWFALL TOTAL THROUGH JANUARY 30TH STANDS AT 40 INCHES
WHICH IS 6.4 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KALY 010445
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1145 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. IT
WILL NOT BE AS COLD...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1145 PM EST...CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FA. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE CROSSING OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AND
DRY LOW LEVELS...LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR. CANNOT RULE OUT A SNOW
SHOWER OR FLURRY FOR NORTHERN AREAS...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

IN AREAS THAT ARE STILL CLEAR...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS THANKS TO DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER...ONCE CLOUDS ARRIVE...TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF AND POSSIBLY
EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES. MIN TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE GLENS FALLS AREA.

TOMORROW...THE MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL NEAR THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ WESTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.  A 1030 HPA OR SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN
FROM SE OF JAMES BAY.  THE SKIES MAY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY...AND -8C TO -10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  MAX
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY
10 TO 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U20S FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A VIGOROUS
NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.


ARCTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ON MONDAY. THERE
HAS BEEN GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT HEADS OFFSHORE. THE GFS NOW HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE COAST
ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. THE GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSIVE WITH AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT.

SNOW RATIOS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED
TO START OUT HIGH THEN TRENDED TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...WHILE RATIOS
WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY AS YOU
HEAD NORTHWARD. THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILISTIC FOR SNOW RATIOS INDICATE
60+% FOR ALBANY AND 64+% FOR GLENS FALLS TO HAVE RATIOS OF 15:1 OR
GREATER.

ALL THIS LEADS TO CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING AND
TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

BASED ON THE FORECASTED ONSET OF SNOW HAVE MADE THE START TIME FOR
THE WARNING 9 PM SUNDAY AND THE WATCH AT MIDNIGHT. BOTH RUN
THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY.

THE HEAVIEST MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM ABOUT 09Z-15Z
MONDAY...IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST AT 60-70 KNOTS AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF LATE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALONG
WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DROP TO ZERO OR BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO AND COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAY NEED
WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND QUICKLY SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER
COLD DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS...15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IS
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE
LOW 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THANKS TO A MOISTURE STARVED
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. W-NW WINDS AT
5-10 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH AND BE LIGHT AND NEARLY CALM
FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT...BKN
CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES ON SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. LIGHT
N-NE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 5 KTS FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ICE THICKEN ON
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ALBANY SEASON SNOWFALL TOTAL THROUGH JANUARY 30TH STANDS AT 40 INCHES
WHICH IS 6.4 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KALY 010445
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1145 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. IT
WILL NOT BE AS COLD...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1145 PM EST...CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FA. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE CROSSING OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AND
DRY LOW LEVELS...LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR. CANNOT RULE OUT A SNOW
SHOWER OR FLURRY FOR NORTHERN AREAS...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

IN AREAS THAT ARE STILL CLEAR...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS THANKS TO DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER...ONCE CLOUDS ARRIVE...TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF AND POSSIBLY
EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES. MIN TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE GLENS FALLS AREA.

TOMORROW...THE MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL NEAR THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ WESTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.  A 1030 HPA OR SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN
FROM SE OF JAMES BAY.  THE SKIES MAY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY...AND -8C TO -10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  MAX
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY
10 TO 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U20S FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A VIGOROUS
NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.


ARCTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ON MONDAY. THERE
HAS BEEN GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT HEADS OFFSHORE. THE GFS NOW HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE COAST
ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. THE GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSIVE WITH AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT.

SNOW RATIOS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED
TO START OUT HIGH THEN TRENDED TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...WHILE RATIOS
WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY AS YOU
HEAD NORTHWARD. THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILISTIC FOR SNOW RATIOS INDICATE
60+% FOR ALBANY AND 64+% FOR GLENS FALLS TO HAVE RATIOS OF 15:1 OR
GREATER.

ALL THIS LEADS TO CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING AND
TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

BASED ON THE FORECASTED ONSET OF SNOW HAVE MADE THE START TIME FOR
THE WARNING 9 PM SUNDAY AND THE WATCH AT MIDNIGHT. BOTH RUN
THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY.

THE HEAVIEST MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM ABOUT 09Z-15Z
MONDAY...IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST AT 60-70 KNOTS AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF LATE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALONG
WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DROP TO ZERO OR BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO AND COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAY NEED
WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND QUICKLY SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER
COLD DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS...15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IS
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE
LOW 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THANKS TO A MOISTURE STARVED
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. W-NW WINDS AT
5-10 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH AND BE LIGHT AND NEARLY CALM
FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT...BKN
CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES ON SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. LIGHT
N-NE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 5 KTS FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ICE THICKEN ON
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ALBANY SEASON SNOWFALL TOTAL THROUGH JANUARY 30TH STANDS AT 40 INCHES
WHICH IS 6.4 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KALY 010445
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1145 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. IT
WILL NOT BE AS COLD...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1145 PM EST...CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FA. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE CROSSING OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AND
DRY LOW LEVELS...LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR. CANNOT RULE OUT A SNOW
SHOWER OR FLURRY FOR NORTHERN AREAS...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

IN AREAS THAT ARE STILL CLEAR...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS THANKS TO DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER...ONCE CLOUDS ARRIVE...TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF AND POSSIBLY
EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES. MIN TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE GLENS FALLS AREA.

TOMORROW...THE MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL NEAR THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ WESTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.  A 1030 HPA OR SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN
FROM SE OF JAMES BAY.  THE SKIES MAY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY...AND -8C TO -10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  MAX
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY
10 TO 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U20S FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A VIGOROUS
NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.


ARCTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ON MONDAY. THERE
HAS BEEN GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT HEADS OFFSHORE. THE GFS NOW HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE COAST
ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. THE GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSIVE WITH AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT.

SNOW RATIOS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED
TO START OUT HIGH THEN TRENDED TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...WHILE RATIOS
WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY AS YOU
HEAD NORTHWARD. THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILISTIC FOR SNOW RATIOS INDICATE
60+% FOR ALBANY AND 64+% FOR GLENS FALLS TO HAVE RATIOS OF 15:1 OR
GREATER.

ALL THIS LEADS TO CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING AND
TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

BASED ON THE FORECASTED ONSET OF SNOW HAVE MADE THE START TIME FOR
THE WARNING 9 PM SUNDAY AND THE WATCH AT MIDNIGHT. BOTH RUN
THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY.

THE HEAVIEST MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM ABOUT 09Z-15Z
MONDAY...IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST AT 60-70 KNOTS AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF LATE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALONG
WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DROP TO ZERO OR BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO AND COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAY NEED
WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND QUICKLY SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER
COLD DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS...15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IS
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE
LOW 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THANKS TO A MOISTURE STARVED
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. W-NW WINDS AT
5-10 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH AND BE LIGHT AND NEARLY CALM
FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT...BKN
CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES ON SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. LIGHT
N-NE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 5 KTS FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ICE THICKEN ON
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ALBANY SEASON SNOWFALL TOTAL THROUGH JANUARY 30TH STANDS AT 40 INCHES
WHICH IS 6.4 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KALY 010445
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1145 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. IT
WILL NOT BE AS COLD...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1145 PM EST...CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FA. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE CROSSING OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AND
DRY LOW LEVELS...LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR. CANNOT RULE OUT A SNOW
SHOWER OR FLURRY FOR NORTHERN AREAS...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

IN AREAS THAT ARE STILL CLEAR...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS THANKS TO DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER...ONCE CLOUDS ARRIVE...TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF AND POSSIBLY
EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES. MIN TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE GLENS FALLS AREA.

TOMORROW...THE MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL NEAR THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ WESTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.  A 1030 HPA OR SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN
FROM SE OF JAMES BAY.  THE SKIES MAY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY...AND -8C TO -10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  MAX
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY
10 TO 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U20S FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A VIGOROUS
NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.


ARCTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ON MONDAY. THERE
HAS BEEN GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT HEADS OFFSHORE. THE GFS NOW HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE COAST
ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. THE GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSIVE WITH AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT.

SNOW RATIOS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED
TO START OUT HIGH THEN TRENDED TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...WHILE RATIOS
WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY AS YOU
HEAD NORTHWARD. THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILISTIC FOR SNOW RATIOS INDICATE
60+% FOR ALBANY AND 64+% FOR GLENS FALLS TO HAVE RATIOS OF 15:1 OR
GREATER.

ALL THIS LEADS TO CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING AND
TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

BASED ON THE FORECASTED ONSET OF SNOW HAVE MADE THE START TIME FOR
THE WARNING 9 PM SUNDAY AND THE WATCH AT MIDNIGHT. BOTH RUN
THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY.

THE HEAVIEST MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM ABOUT 09Z-15Z
MONDAY...IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST AT 60-70 KNOTS AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF LATE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALONG
WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DROP TO ZERO OR BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO AND COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAY NEED
WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND QUICKLY SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER
COLD DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS...15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IS
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE
LOW 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THANKS TO A MOISTURE STARVED
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. W-NW WINDS AT
5-10 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH AND BE LIGHT AND NEARLY CALM
FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT...BKN
CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES ON SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. LIGHT
N-NE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 5 KTS FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ICE THICKEN ON
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ALBANY SEASON SNOWFALL TOTAL THROUGH JANUARY 30TH STANDS AT 40 INCHES
WHICH IS 6.4 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KALY 010445
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1145 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. IT
WILL NOT BE AS COLD...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1145 PM EST...CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FA. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE CROSSING OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AND
DRY LOW LEVELS...LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR. CANNOT RULE OUT A SNOW
SHOWER OR FLURRY FOR NORTHERN AREAS...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

IN AREAS THAT ARE STILL CLEAR...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS THANKS TO DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER...ONCE CLOUDS ARRIVE...TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF AND POSSIBLY
EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES. MIN TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE GLENS FALLS AREA.

TOMORROW...THE MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL NEAR THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ WESTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.  A 1030 HPA OR SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN
FROM SE OF JAMES BAY.  THE SKIES MAY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY...AND -8C TO -10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  MAX
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY
10 TO 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U20S FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A VIGOROUS
NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.


ARCTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ON MONDAY. THERE
HAS BEEN GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT HEADS OFFSHORE. THE GFS NOW HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE COAST
ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. THE GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSIVE WITH AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT.

SNOW RATIOS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED
TO START OUT HIGH THEN TRENDED TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...WHILE RATIOS
WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY AS YOU
HEAD NORTHWARD. THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILISTIC FOR SNOW RATIOS INDICATE
60+% FOR ALBANY AND 64+% FOR GLENS FALLS TO HAVE RATIOS OF 15:1 OR
GREATER.

ALL THIS LEADS TO CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING AND
TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

BASED ON THE FORECASTED ONSET OF SNOW HAVE MADE THE START TIME FOR
THE WARNING 9 PM SUNDAY AND THE WATCH AT MIDNIGHT. BOTH RUN
THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY.

THE HEAVIEST MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM ABOUT 09Z-15Z
MONDAY...IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST AT 60-70 KNOTS AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF LATE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALONG
WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DROP TO ZERO OR BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO AND COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAY NEED
WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND QUICKLY SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER
COLD DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS...15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IS
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE
LOW 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THANKS TO A MOISTURE STARVED
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. W-NW WINDS AT
5-10 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH AND BE LIGHT AND NEARLY CALM
FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT...BKN
CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES ON SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. LIGHT
N-NE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 5 KTS FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ICE THICKEN ON
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ALBANY SEASON SNOWFALL TOTAL THROUGH JANUARY 30TH STANDS AT 40 INCHES
WHICH IS 6.4 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KBTV 010437
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1137 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. OTHERWISE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND
PASS JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
BEGINNING IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...AND ANY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1137 PM EST SATURDAY...WITH THE FORECAST GENERALLY IN GOOD
SHAPE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. INCREASING OVERCAST CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES MOVING INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS FORECAST. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED FROM THESE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES OVERNIGHT. ONLY CHANGE
MADE WAS TO BLEND IN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS TO THE GOING FORECAST.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 314 PM SATURDAY FOLLOWS...

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AREAWIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM SERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NEW YORK.
WE/VE SEEN WIND CHILL VALUES OF -10F TO -20F THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
(WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO)...BUT WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW NW
WINDS TO QUICKLY ABATE NEAR/JUST AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. A
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT
SEWD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL SWLY
FLOW WILL BRING STRATUS IN FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH A
CHANCE OF A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS 03-09Z. GIVEN DRY
PBL CONDITIONS (2-M DEWPOINTS -10F TO -15F)...IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY FLURRIES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...CLOSER TO AVAILABLE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM LAKE ONTARIO. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING AS WELL...SO UPPER SUPPORT FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME STRATUS/ALTOSTRATUS APPEARS LIMITED IN
VERMONT. AS A CONSEQUENCE...BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN VERMONT WITH LATER ARRIVAL/LESSER CLOUD COVER. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM -5F TO -15F IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO
+5F TO -5F MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. IN AREAS SEEING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS...SOME OF THESE LOWS WILL OCCUR BY MIDNIGHT WITH NEAR
STEADY TEMPERATURES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

ON SUNDAY...WILL SEE PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AS SFC RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM NWRN ONTARIO SEWD INTO NRN NY AND VERMONT. LOOKING FOR LIGHT
N-NW WINDS AND SOME RENEWED LOW-LEVEL CAA TO OFFSET NORMAL DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TRENDS. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY
BUT CONTINUING BELOW AVERAGE FOR FEBRUARY 1ST...WITH AFTN VALUES
GENERALLY RANGING FROM +8 TO +15F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 314 PM EST SATURDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT BEGINS TRANQUIL WITH
INCREASING MID-UPPER CLOUDS THRU MIDNIGHT AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
HOLDS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. NO PROBLEM FOR ANY
TRAVEL PLANS DURING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG
STRONG SFC-850MB QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY EWD ACROSS PA SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS POSITIVE
TILT...BUT SHOULD HELP FOCUS DOWNSTREAM AREA OF 850-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING AND STRONG UPWARD MOTION TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW TRACK. THE 12Z NWP GUIDANCE SUITE HAS
CONTINUED THE NWD SHIFT OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED QPF
VALUES...WITH THE 12Z GFS GENERALLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
POTENTIAL SNOWFALL IN OUR REGION (0.5-0.7" LIQUID EQUIV). STRONG
850-700MB WAA...A PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MONDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...AND SATURATION IN A 7000FT DEEP DENDRITE
GROWTH LAYER (PER BOTH NAM/GFS POINT SOUNDINGS) SUGGESTS OPTIMIZED
DYNAMICS AND SNOW MICROPHYSICS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN MONDAY. GIVEN COLD COLUMN AND
DENDRITE GROWTH...LOOKING AT SNOW RATIOS POTENTIALLY 18:1 TO 20:1
THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENT...SO GOOD "FLUFF FACTOR" TO PILE UP THE
SNOW (THOUGH PERHAPS HAVING LESS OVERALL IMPACT THAN CORRESPONDING
AMTS OF HEAVY/WET SNOW WOULD). COUNTERING THE SNOW WILL BE DRY PBL
CONDITIONS...SO WE/LL NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONG SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION GRADIENT SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

STEADY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY
AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN TIME FOR THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. MAXIMIZED UVV OCCURS 15-20Z MONDAY TIME
FRAME...AND COULD SEE 1+"/HR SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
S-CENTRAL VERMONT DURING THAT TIME FRAME. LOOKING FOR SNOWFALL
AMTS TO RANGE FROM 8-10" FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN
VERMONT 4-8" ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACKS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO
SRN CALEDONIA COUNTY...AND THEN 2-4" ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR ALL OF CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL
VERMONT 09Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FURTHER NORTH...PERHAPS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS THE EVENT APPROACHES AND MESOSCALE DETAILS AND LOW TRACK
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. GIVEN PROJECTED LOW SNOW DENSITY, THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE TO TRAVEL THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY WITH
SNOWCOVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW. WORST OF
THE TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN VERMONT.

ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW DEPARTS THROUGH THE
GULF OF MAINE MONDAY EVENING. SHOULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS (SERN VT)...AND FALLING GENERALLY BELOW ZERO MONDAY
NIGHT WITH FRESH SNOWPACK AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE
THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT AREA WITH DRY COLD WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY. A WEAK LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING OUR
FIRST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. ON WEDNESDAY A STRONGER LOW CROSSES THE AREA...SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS. EXTENDED FORECAST WILL GENERALLY BE ACTIVE WITH
SEVERAL WEAK LOWS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AND
COLD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SOME NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS WEDNESDAY WHEN LOW WILL BE
CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR SKC CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. A BKN/OVC VFR STRATUS DECK DEPICTED ON EVENING INFRARED
SATELLITE THEN SPREADS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. AS MOISTURE DEPTH
DECREASES WITH EASTWARD EXTENT, ANY DEVELOPING 5-7 SM VISIBILITY
-SHSN AFTER 05Z WILL BE LIMITED TO MSS AND SLK, ENDING BY 10-12Z.
STRATUS DECK WILL THIN INTO SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
NORTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS (EXCEPTION AT MPV WHERE
NORTH WINDS 10 KTS AND GUSTING TO 20 KTS AT TIMES THIS EVENING).

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z MONDAY-09Z MONDAY...VFR.

09Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR SNOWFALL AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. GREATEST IMPACT LIKELY AT MPV/RUT WITH
MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

12Z THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR VTZ008>012-018-019.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010437
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1137 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. OTHERWISE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND
PASS JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
BEGINNING IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...AND ANY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1137 PM EST SATURDAY...WITH THE FORECAST GENERALLY IN GOOD
SHAPE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. INCREASING OVERCAST CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES MOVING INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS FORECAST. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED FROM THESE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES OVERNIGHT. ONLY CHANGE
MADE WAS TO BLEND IN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS TO THE GOING FORECAST.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 314 PM SATURDAY FOLLOWS...

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AREAWIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM SERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NEW YORK.
WE/VE SEEN WIND CHILL VALUES OF -10F TO -20F THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
(WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO)...BUT WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW NW
WINDS TO QUICKLY ABATE NEAR/JUST AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. A
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT
SEWD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL SWLY
FLOW WILL BRING STRATUS IN FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH A
CHANCE OF A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS 03-09Z. GIVEN DRY
PBL CONDITIONS (2-M DEWPOINTS -10F TO -15F)...IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY FLURRIES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...CLOSER TO AVAILABLE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM LAKE ONTARIO. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING AS WELL...SO UPPER SUPPORT FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME STRATUS/ALTOSTRATUS APPEARS LIMITED IN
VERMONT. AS A CONSEQUENCE...BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN VERMONT WITH LATER ARRIVAL/LESSER CLOUD COVER. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM -5F TO -15F IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO
+5F TO -5F MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. IN AREAS SEEING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS...SOME OF THESE LOWS WILL OCCUR BY MIDNIGHT WITH NEAR
STEADY TEMPERATURES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

ON SUNDAY...WILL SEE PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AS SFC RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM NWRN ONTARIO SEWD INTO NRN NY AND VERMONT. LOOKING FOR LIGHT
N-NW WINDS AND SOME RENEWED LOW-LEVEL CAA TO OFFSET NORMAL DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TRENDS. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY
BUT CONTINUING BELOW AVERAGE FOR FEBRUARY 1ST...WITH AFTN VALUES
GENERALLY RANGING FROM +8 TO +15F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 314 PM EST SATURDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT BEGINS TRANQUIL WITH
INCREASING MID-UPPER CLOUDS THRU MIDNIGHT AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
HOLDS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. NO PROBLEM FOR ANY
TRAVEL PLANS DURING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG
STRONG SFC-850MB QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY EWD ACROSS PA SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS POSITIVE
TILT...BUT SHOULD HELP FOCUS DOWNSTREAM AREA OF 850-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING AND STRONG UPWARD MOTION TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW TRACK. THE 12Z NWP GUIDANCE SUITE HAS
CONTINUED THE NWD SHIFT OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED QPF
VALUES...WITH THE 12Z GFS GENERALLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
POTENTIAL SNOWFALL IN OUR REGION (0.5-0.7" LIQUID EQUIV). STRONG
850-700MB WAA...A PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MONDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...AND SATURATION IN A 7000FT DEEP DENDRITE
GROWTH LAYER (PER BOTH NAM/GFS POINT SOUNDINGS) SUGGESTS OPTIMIZED
DYNAMICS AND SNOW MICROPHYSICS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN MONDAY. GIVEN COLD COLUMN AND
DENDRITE GROWTH...LOOKING AT SNOW RATIOS POTENTIALLY 18:1 TO 20:1
THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENT...SO GOOD "FLUFF FACTOR" TO PILE UP THE
SNOW (THOUGH PERHAPS HAVING LESS OVERALL IMPACT THAN CORRESPONDING
AMTS OF HEAVY/WET SNOW WOULD). COUNTERING THE SNOW WILL BE DRY PBL
CONDITIONS...SO WE/LL NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONG SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION GRADIENT SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

STEADY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY
AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN TIME FOR THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. MAXIMIZED UVV OCCURS 15-20Z MONDAY TIME
FRAME...AND COULD SEE 1+"/HR SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
S-CENTRAL VERMONT DURING THAT TIME FRAME. LOOKING FOR SNOWFALL
AMTS TO RANGE FROM 8-10" FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN
VERMONT 4-8" ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACKS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO
SRN CALEDONIA COUNTY...AND THEN 2-4" ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR ALL OF CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL
VERMONT 09Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FURTHER NORTH...PERHAPS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS THE EVENT APPROACHES AND MESOSCALE DETAILS AND LOW TRACK
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. GIVEN PROJECTED LOW SNOW DENSITY, THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE TO TRAVEL THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY WITH
SNOWCOVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW. WORST OF
THE TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN VERMONT.

ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW DEPARTS THROUGH THE
GULF OF MAINE MONDAY EVENING. SHOULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS (SERN VT)...AND FALLING GENERALLY BELOW ZERO MONDAY
NIGHT WITH FRESH SNOWPACK AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE
THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT AREA WITH DRY COLD WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY. A WEAK LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING OUR
FIRST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. ON WEDNESDAY A STRONGER LOW CROSSES THE AREA...SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS. EXTENDED FORECAST WILL GENERALLY BE ACTIVE WITH
SEVERAL WEAK LOWS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AND
COLD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SOME NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS WEDNESDAY WHEN LOW WILL BE
CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR SKC CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. A BKN/OVC VFR STRATUS DECK DEPICTED ON EVENING INFRARED
SATELLITE THEN SPREADS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. AS MOISTURE DEPTH
DECREASES WITH EASTWARD EXTENT, ANY DEVELOPING 5-7 SM VISIBILITY
-SHSN AFTER 05Z WILL BE LIMITED TO MSS AND SLK, ENDING BY 10-12Z.
STRATUS DECK WILL THIN INTO SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
NORTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS (EXCEPTION AT MPV WHERE
NORTH WINDS 10 KTS AND GUSTING TO 20 KTS AT TIMES THIS EVENING).

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z MONDAY-09Z MONDAY...VFR.

09Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR SNOWFALL AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. GREATEST IMPACT LIKELY AT MPV/RUT WITH
MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

12Z THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR VTZ008>012-018-019.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010437
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1137 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. OTHERWISE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND
PASS JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
BEGINNING IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...AND ANY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1137 PM EST SATURDAY...WITH THE FORECAST GENERALLY IN GOOD
SHAPE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. INCREASING OVERCAST CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES MOVING INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS FORECAST. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED FROM THESE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES OVERNIGHT. ONLY CHANGE
MADE WAS TO BLEND IN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS TO THE GOING FORECAST.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 314 PM SATURDAY FOLLOWS...

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AREAWIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM SERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NEW YORK.
WE/VE SEEN WIND CHILL VALUES OF -10F TO -20F THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
(WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO)...BUT WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW NW
WINDS TO QUICKLY ABATE NEAR/JUST AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. A
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT
SEWD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL SWLY
FLOW WILL BRING STRATUS IN FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH A
CHANCE OF A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS 03-09Z. GIVEN DRY
PBL CONDITIONS (2-M DEWPOINTS -10F TO -15F)...IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY FLURRIES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...CLOSER TO AVAILABLE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM LAKE ONTARIO. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING AS WELL...SO UPPER SUPPORT FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME STRATUS/ALTOSTRATUS APPEARS LIMITED IN
VERMONT. AS A CONSEQUENCE...BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN VERMONT WITH LATER ARRIVAL/LESSER CLOUD COVER. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM -5F TO -15F IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO
+5F TO -5F MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. IN AREAS SEEING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS...SOME OF THESE LOWS WILL OCCUR BY MIDNIGHT WITH NEAR
STEADY TEMPERATURES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

ON SUNDAY...WILL SEE PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AS SFC RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM NWRN ONTARIO SEWD INTO NRN NY AND VERMONT. LOOKING FOR LIGHT
N-NW WINDS AND SOME RENEWED LOW-LEVEL CAA TO OFFSET NORMAL DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TRENDS. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY
BUT CONTINUING BELOW AVERAGE FOR FEBRUARY 1ST...WITH AFTN VALUES
GENERALLY RANGING FROM +8 TO +15F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 314 PM EST SATURDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT BEGINS TRANQUIL WITH
INCREASING MID-UPPER CLOUDS THRU MIDNIGHT AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
HOLDS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. NO PROBLEM FOR ANY
TRAVEL PLANS DURING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG
STRONG SFC-850MB QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY EWD ACROSS PA SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS POSITIVE
TILT...BUT SHOULD HELP FOCUS DOWNSTREAM AREA OF 850-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING AND STRONG UPWARD MOTION TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW TRACK. THE 12Z NWP GUIDANCE SUITE HAS
CONTINUED THE NWD SHIFT OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED QPF
VALUES...WITH THE 12Z GFS GENERALLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
POTENTIAL SNOWFALL IN OUR REGION (0.5-0.7" LIQUID EQUIV). STRONG
850-700MB WAA...A PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MONDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...AND SATURATION IN A 7000FT DEEP DENDRITE
GROWTH LAYER (PER BOTH NAM/GFS POINT SOUNDINGS) SUGGESTS OPTIMIZED
DYNAMICS AND SNOW MICROPHYSICS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN MONDAY. GIVEN COLD COLUMN AND
DENDRITE GROWTH...LOOKING AT SNOW RATIOS POTENTIALLY 18:1 TO 20:1
THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENT...SO GOOD "FLUFF FACTOR" TO PILE UP THE
SNOW (THOUGH PERHAPS HAVING LESS OVERALL IMPACT THAN CORRESPONDING
AMTS OF HEAVY/WET SNOW WOULD). COUNTERING THE SNOW WILL BE DRY PBL
CONDITIONS...SO WE/LL NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONG SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION GRADIENT SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

STEADY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY
AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN TIME FOR THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. MAXIMIZED UVV OCCURS 15-20Z MONDAY TIME
FRAME...AND COULD SEE 1+"/HR SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
S-CENTRAL VERMONT DURING THAT TIME FRAME. LOOKING FOR SNOWFALL
AMTS TO RANGE FROM 8-10" FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN
VERMONT 4-8" ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACKS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO
SRN CALEDONIA COUNTY...AND THEN 2-4" ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR ALL OF CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL
VERMONT 09Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FURTHER NORTH...PERHAPS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS THE EVENT APPROACHES AND MESOSCALE DETAILS AND LOW TRACK
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. GIVEN PROJECTED LOW SNOW DENSITY, THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE TO TRAVEL THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY WITH
SNOWCOVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW. WORST OF
THE TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN VERMONT.

ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW DEPARTS THROUGH THE
GULF OF MAINE MONDAY EVENING. SHOULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS (SERN VT)...AND FALLING GENERALLY BELOW ZERO MONDAY
NIGHT WITH FRESH SNOWPACK AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE
THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT AREA WITH DRY COLD WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY. A WEAK LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING OUR
FIRST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. ON WEDNESDAY A STRONGER LOW CROSSES THE AREA...SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS. EXTENDED FORECAST WILL GENERALLY BE ACTIVE WITH
SEVERAL WEAK LOWS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AND
COLD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SOME NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS WEDNESDAY WHEN LOW WILL BE
CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR SKC CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. A BKN/OVC VFR STRATUS DECK DEPICTED ON EVENING INFRARED
SATELLITE THEN SPREADS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. AS MOISTURE DEPTH
DECREASES WITH EASTWARD EXTENT, ANY DEVELOPING 5-7 SM VISIBILITY
-SHSN AFTER 05Z WILL BE LIMITED TO MSS AND SLK, ENDING BY 10-12Z.
STRATUS DECK WILL THIN INTO SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
NORTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS (EXCEPTION AT MPV WHERE
NORTH WINDS 10 KTS AND GUSTING TO 20 KTS AT TIMES THIS EVENING).

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z MONDAY-09Z MONDAY...VFR.

09Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR SNOWFALL AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. GREATEST IMPACT LIKELY AT MPV/RUT WITH
MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

12Z THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR VTZ008>012-018-019.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010437
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1137 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. OTHERWISE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND
PASS JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
BEGINNING IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...AND ANY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1137 PM EST SATURDAY...WITH THE FORECAST GENERALLY IN GOOD
SHAPE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. INCREASING OVERCAST CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES MOVING INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS FORECAST. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED FROM THESE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES OVERNIGHT. ONLY CHANGE
MADE WAS TO BLEND IN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS TO THE GOING FORECAST.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 314 PM SATURDAY FOLLOWS...

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AREAWIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM SERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NEW YORK.
WE/VE SEEN WIND CHILL VALUES OF -10F TO -20F THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
(WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO)...BUT WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW NW
WINDS TO QUICKLY ABATE NEAR/JUST AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. A
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT
SEWD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL SWLY
FLOW WILL BRING STRATUS IN FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH A
CHANCE OF A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS 03-09Z. GIVEN DRY
PBL CONDITIONS (2-M DEWPOINTS -10F TO -15F)...IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY FLURRIES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...CLOSER TO AVAILABLE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM LAKE ONTARIO. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING AS WELL...SO UPPER SUPPORT FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME STRATUS/ALTOSTRATUS APPEARS LIMITED IN
VERMONT. AS A CONSEQUENCE...BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN VERMONT WITH LATER ARRIVAL/LESSER CLOUD COVER. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM -5F TO -15F IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO
+5F TO -5F MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. IN AREAS SEEING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS...SOME OF THESE LOWS WILL OCCUR BY MIDNIGHT WITH NEAR
STEADY TEMPERATURES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

ON SUNDAY...WILL SEE PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AS SFC RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM NWRN ONTARIO SEWD INTO NRN NY AND VERMONT. LOOKING FOR LIGHT
N-NW WINDS AND SOME RENEWED LOW-LEVEL CAA TO OFFSET NORMAL DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TRENDS. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY
BUT CONTINUING BELOW AVERAGE FOR FEBRUARY 1ST...WITH AFTN VALUES
GENERALLY RANGING FROM +8 TO +15F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 314 PM EST SATURDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT BEGINS TRANQUIL WITH
INCREASING MID-UPPER CLOUDS THRU MIDNIGHT AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
HOLDS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. NO PROBLEM FOR ANY
TRAVEL PLANS DURING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG
STRONG SFC-850MB QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY EWD ACROSS PA SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS POSITIVE
TILT...BUT SHOULD HELP FOCUS DOWNSTREAM AREA OF 850-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING AND STRONG UPWARD MOTION TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW TRACK. THE 12Z NWP GUIDANCE SUITE HAS
CONTINUED THE NWD SHIFT OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED QPF
VALUES...WITH THE 12Z GFS GENERALLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
POTENTIAL SNOWFALL IN OUR REGION (0.5-0.7" LIQUID EQUIV). STRONG
850-700MB WAA...A PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MONDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...AND SATURATION IN A 7000FT DEEP DENDRITE
GROWTH LAYER (PER BOTH NAM/GFS POINT SOUNDINGS) SUGGESTS OPTIMIZED
DYNAMICS AND SNOW MICROPHYSICS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN MONDAY. GIVEN COLD COLUMN AND
DENDRITE GROWTH...LOOKING AT SNOW RATIOS POTENTIALLY 18:1 TO 20:1
THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENT...SO GOOD "FLUFF FACTOR" TO PILE UP THE
SNOW (THOUGH PERHAPS HAVING LESS OVERALL IMPACT THAN CORRESPONDING
AMTS OF HEAVY/WET SNOW WOULD). COUNTERING THE SNOW WILL BE DRY PBL
CONDITIONS...SO WE/LL NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONG SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION GRADIENT SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

STEADY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY
AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN TIME FOR THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. MAXIMIZED UVV OCCURS 15-20Z MONDAY TIME
FRAME...AND COULD SEE 1+"/HR SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
S-CENTRAL VERMONT DURING THAT TIME FRAME. LOOKING FOR SNOWFALL
AMTS TO RANGE FROM 8-10" FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN
VERMONT 4-8" ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACKS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO
SRN CALEDONIA COUNTY...AND THEN 2-4" ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR ALL OF CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL
VERMONT 09Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FURTHER NORTH...PERHAPS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS THE EVENT APPROACHES AND MESOSCALE DETAILS AND LOW TRACK
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. GIVEN PROJECTED LOW SNOW DENSITY, THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE TO TRAVEL THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY WITH
SNOWCOVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW. WORST OF
THE TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN VERMONT.

ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW DEPARTS THROUGH THE
GULF OF MAINE MONDAY EVENING. SHOULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS (SERN VT)...AND FALLING GENERALLY BELOW ZERO MONDAY
NIGHT WITH FRESH SNOWPACK AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE
THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT AREA WITH DRY COLD WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY. A WEAK LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING OUR
FIRST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. ON WEDNESDAY A STRONGER LOW CROSSES THE AREA...SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS. EXTENDED FORECAST WILL GENERALLY BE ACTIVE WITH
SEVERAL WEAK LOWS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AND
COLD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SOME NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS WEDNESDAY WHEN LOW WILL BE
CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR SKC CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. A BKN/OVC VFR STRATUS DECK DEPICTED ON EVENING INFRARED
SATELLITE THEN SPREADS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. AS MOISTURE DEPTH
DECREASES WITH EASTWARD EXTENT, ANY DEVELOPING 5-7 SM VISIBILITY
-SHSN AFTER 05Z WILL BE LIMITED TO MSS AND SLK, ENDING BY 10-12Z.
STRATUS DECK WILL THIN INTO SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
NORTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS (EXCEPTION AT MPV WHERE
NORTH WINDS 10 KTS AND GUSTING TO 20 KTS AT TIMES THIS EVENING).

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z MONDAY-09Z MONDAY...VFR.

09Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR SNOWFALL AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. GREATEST IMPACT LIKELY AT MPV/RUT WITH
MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

12Z THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR VTZ008>012-018-019.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010437
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1137 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. OTHERWISE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND
PASS JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
BEGINNING IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...AND ANY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1137 PM EST SATURDAY...WITH THE FORECAST GENERALLY IN GOOD
SHAPE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. INCREASING OVERCAST CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES MOVING INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS FORECAST. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED FROM THESE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES OVERNIGHT. ONLY CHANGE
MADE WAS TO BLEND IN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS TO THE GOING FORECAST.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 314 PM SATURDAY FOLLOWS...

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AREAWIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM SERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NEW YORK.
WE/VE SEEN WIND CHILL VALUES OF -10F TO -20F THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
(WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO)...BUT WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW NW
WINDS TO QUICKLY ABATE NEAR/JUST AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. A
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT
SEWD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL SWLY
FLOW WILL BRING STRATUS IN FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH A
CHANCE OF A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS 03-09Z. GIVEN DRY
PBL CONDITIONS (2-M DEWPOINTS -10F TO -15F)...IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY FLURRIES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...CLOSER TO AVAILABLE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM LAKE ONTARIO. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING AS WELL...SO UPPER SUPPORT FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME STRATUS/ALTOSTRATUS APPEARS LIMITED IN
VERMONT. AS A CONSEQUENCE...BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN VERMONT WITH LATER ARRIVAL/LESSER CLOUD COVER. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM -5F TO -15F IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO
+5F TO -5F MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. IN AREAS SEEING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS...SOME OF THESE LOWS WILL OCCUR BY MIDNIGHT WITH NEAR
STEADY TEMPERATURES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

ON SUNDAY...WILL SEE PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AS SFC RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM NWRN ONTARIO SEWD INTO NRN NY AND VERMONT. LOOKING FOR LIGHT
N-NW WINDS AND SOME RENEWED LOW-LEVEL CAA TO OFFSET NORMAL DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TRENDS. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY
BUT CONTINUING BELOW AVERAGE FOR FEBRUARY 1ST...WITH AFTN VALUES
GENERALLY RANGING FROM +8 TO +15F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 314 PM EST SATURDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT BEGINS TRANQUIL WITH
INCREASING MID-UPPER CLOUDS THRU MIDNIGHT AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
HOLDS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. NO PROBLEM FOR ANY
TRAVEL PLANS DURING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG
STRONG SFC-850MB QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY EWD ACROSS PA SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS POSITIVE
TILT...BUT SHOULD HELP FOCUS DOWNSTREAM AREA OF 850-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING AND STRONG UPWARD MOTION TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW TRACK. THE 12Z NWP GUIDANCE SUITE HAS
CONTINUED THE NWD SHIFT OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED QPF
VALUES...WITH THE 12Z GFS GENERALLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
POTENTIAL SNOWFALL IN OUR REGION (0.5-0.7" LIQUID EQUIV). STRONG
850-700MB WAA...A PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MONDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...AND SATURATION IN A 7000FT DEEP DENDRITE
GROWTH LAYER (PER BOTH NAM/GFS POINT SOUNDINGS) SUGGESTS OPTIMIZED
DYNAMICS AND SNOW MICROPHYSICS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN MONDAY. GIVEN COLD COLUMN AND
DENDRITE GROWTH...LOOKING AT SNOW RATIOS POTENTIALLY 18:1 TO 20:1
THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENT...SO GOOD "FLUFF FACTOR" TO PILE UP THE
SNOW (THOUGH PERHAPS HAVING LESS OVERALL IMPACT THAN CORRESPONDING
AMTS OF HEAVY/WET SNOW WOULD). COUNTERING THE SNOW WILL BE DRY PBL
CONDITIONS...SO WE/LL NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONG SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION GRADIENT SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

STEADY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY
AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN TIME FOR THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. MAXIMIZED UVV OCCURS 15-20Z MONDAY TIME
FRAME...AND COULD SEE 1+"/HR SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
S-CENTRAL VERMONT DURING THAT TIME FRAME. LOOKING FOR SNOWFALL
AMTS TO RANGE FROM 8-10" FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN
VERMONT 4-8" ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACKS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO
SRN CALEDONIA COUNTY...AND THEN 2-4" ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR ALL OF CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL
VERMONT 09Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FURTHER NORTH...PERHAPS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS THE EVENT APPROACHES AND MESOSCALE DETAILS AND LOW TRACK
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. GIVEN PROJECTED LOW SNOW DENSITY, THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE TO TRAVEL THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY WITH
SNOWCOVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW. WORST OF
THE TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN VERMONT.

ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW DEPARTS THROUGH THE
GULF OF MAINE MONDAY EVENING. SHOULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS (SERN VT)...AND FALLING GENERALLY BELOW ZERO MONDAY
NIGHT WITH FRESH SNOWPACK AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE
THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT AREA WITH DRY COLD WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY. A WEAK LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING OUR
FIRST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. ON WEDNESDAY A STRONGER LOW CROSSES THE AREA...SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS. EXTENDED FORECAST WILL GENERALLY BE ACTIVE WITH
SEVERAL WEAK LOWS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AND
COLD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SOME NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS WEDNESDAY WHEN LOW WILL BE
CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR SKC CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. A BKN/OVC VFR STRATUS DECK DEPICTED ON EVENING INFRARED
SATELLITE THEN SPREADS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. AS MOISTURE DEPTH
DECREASES WITH EASTWARD EXTENT, ANY DEVELOPING 5-7 SM VISIBILITY
-SHSN AFTER 05Z WILL BE LIMITED TO MSS AND SLK, ENDING BY 10-12Z.
STRATUS DECK WILL THIN INTO SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
NORTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS (EXCEPTION AT MPV WHERE
NORTH WINDS 10 KTS AND GUSTING TO 20 KTS AT TIMES THIS EVENING).

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z MONDAY-09Z MONDAY...VFR.

09Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR SNOWFALL AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. GREATEST IMPACT LIKELY AT MPV/RUT WITH
MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

12Z THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR VTZ008>012-018-019.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KBTV 010437
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1137 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. OTHERWISE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND
PASS JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
BEGINNING IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...AND ANY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1137 PM EST SATURDAY...WITH THE FORECAST GENERALLY IN GOOD
SHAPE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. INCREASING OVERCAST CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES MOVING INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS FORECAST. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED FROM THESE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES OVERNIGHT. ONLY CHANGE
MADE WAS TO BLEND IN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS TO THE GOING FORECAST.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 314 PM SATURDAY FOLLOWS...

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AREAWIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM SERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NEW YORK.
WE/VE SEEN WIND CHILL VALUES OF -10F TO -20F THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
(WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO)...BUT WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW NW
WINDS TO QUICKLY ABATE NEAR/JUST AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. A
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT
SEWD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL SWLY
FLOW WILL BRING STRATUS IN FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH A
CHANCE OF A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS 03-09Z. GIVEN DRY
PBL CONDITIONS (2-M DEWPOINTS -10F TO -15F)...IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY FLURRIES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...CLOSER TO AVAILABLE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM LAKE ONTARIO. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING AS WELL...SO UPPER SUPPORT FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME STRATUS/ALTOSTRATUS APPEARS LIMITED IN
VERMONT. AS A CONSEQUENCE...BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN VERMONT WITH LATER ARRIVAL/LESSER CLOUD COVER. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM -5F TO -15F IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO
+5F TO -5F MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. IN AREAS SEEING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS...SOME OF THESE LOWS WILL OCCUR BY MIDNIGHT WITH NEAR
STEADY TEMPERATURES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

ON SUNDAY...WILL SEE PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AS SFC RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM NWRN ONTARIO SEWD INTO NRN NY AND VERMONT. LOOKING FOR LIGHT
N-NW WINDS AND SOME RENEWED LOW-LEVEL CAA TO OFFSET NORMAL DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TRENDS. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY
BUT CONTINUING BELOW AVERAGE FOR FEBRUARY 1ST...WITH AFTN VALUES
GENERALLY RANGING FROM +8 TO +15F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 314 PM EST SATURDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT BEGINS TRANQUIL WITH
INCREASING MID-UPPER CLOUDS THRU MIDNIGHT AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
HOLDS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. NO PROBLEM FOR ANY
TRAVEL PLANS DURING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG
STRONG SFC-850MB QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY EWD ACROSS PA SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS POSITIVE
TILT...BUT SHOULD HELP FOCUS DOWNSTREAM AREA OF 850-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING AND STRONG UPWARD MOTION TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW TRACK. THE 12Z NWP GUIDANCE SUITE HAS
CONTINUED THE NWD SHIFT OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED QPF
VALUES...WITH THE 12Z GFS GENERALLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
POTENTIAL SNOWFALL IN OUR REGION (0.5-0.7" LIQUID EQUIV). STRONG
850-700MB WAA...A PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MONDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...AND SATURATION IN A 7000FT DEEP DENDRITE
GROWTH LAYER (PER BOTH NAM/GFS POINT SOUNDINGS) SUGGESTS OPTIMIZED
DYNAMICS AND SNOW MICROPHYSICS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN MONDAY. GIVEN COLD COLUMN AND
DENDRITE GROWTH...LOOKING AT SNOW RATIOS POTENTIALLY 18:1 TO 20:1
THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENT...SO GOOD "FLUFF FACTOR" TO PILE UP THE
SNOW (THOUGH PERHAPS HAVING LESS OVERALL IMPACT THAN CORRESPONDING
AMTS OF HEAVY/WET SNOW WOULD). COUNTERING THE SNOW WILL BE DRY PBL
CONDITIONS...SO WE/LL NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONG SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION GRADIENT SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

STEADY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY
AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN TIME FOR THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. MAXIMIZED UVV OCCURS 15-20Z MONDAY TIME
FRAME...AND COULD SEE 1+"/HR SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
S-CENTRAL VERMONT DURING THAT TIME FRAME. LOOKING FOR SNOWFALL
AMTS TO RANGE FROM 8-10" FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN
VERMONT 4-8" ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACKS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO
SRN CALEDONIA COUNTY...AND THEN 2-4" ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR ALL OF CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL
VERMONT 09Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FURTHER NORTH...PERHAPS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS THE EVENT APPROACHES AND MESOSCALE DETAILS AND LOW TRACK
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. GIVEN PROJECTED LOW SNOW DENSITY, THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE TO TRAVEL THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY WITH
SNOWCOVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW. WORST OF
THE TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN VERMONT.

ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW DEPARTS THROUGH THE
GULF OF MAINE MONDAY EVENING. SHOULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS (SERN VT)...AND FALLING GENERALLY BELOW ZERO MONDAY
NIGHT WITH FRESH SNOWPACK AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE
THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT AREA WITH DRY COLD WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY. A WEAK LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING OUR
FIRST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. ON WEDNESDAY A STRONGER LOW CROSSES THE AREA...SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS. EXTENDED FORECAST WILL GENERALLY BE ACTIVE WITH
SEVERAL WEAK LOWS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AND
COLD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SOME NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS WEDNESDAY WHEN LOW WILL BE
CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR SKC CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. A BKN/OVC VFR STRATUS DECK DEPICTED ON EVENING INFRARED
SATELLITE THEN SPREADS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. AS MOISTURE DEPTH
DECREASES WITH EASTWARD EXTENT, ANY DEVELOPING 5-7 SM VISIBILITY
-SHSN AFTER 05Z WILL BE LIMITED TO MSS AND SLK, ENDING BY 10-12Z.
STRATUS DECK WILL THIN INTO SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
NORTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS (EXCEPTION AT MPV WHERE
NORTH WINDS 10 KTS AND GUSTING TO 20 KTS AT TIMES THIS EVENING).

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z MONDAY-09Z MONDAY...VFR.

09Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR SNOWFALL AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. GREATEST IMPACT LIKELY AT MPV/RUT WITH
MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

12Z THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR VTZ008>012-018-019.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KBTV 010437
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1137 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. OTHERWISE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND
PASS JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
BEGINNING IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...AND ANY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1137 PM EST SATURDAY...WITH THE FORECAST GENERALLY IN GOOD
SHAPE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. INCREASING OVERCAST CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES MOVING INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS FORECAST. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED FROM THESE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES OVERNIGHT. ONLY CHANGE
MADE WAS TO BLEND IN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS TO THE GOING FORECAST.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 314 PM SATURDAY FOLLOWS...

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AREAWIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM SERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NEW YORK.
WE/VE SEEN WIND CHILL VALUES OF -10F TO -20F THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
(WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO)...BUT WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW NW
WINDS TO QUICKLY ABATE NEAR/JUST AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. A
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT
SEWD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL SWLY
FLOW WILL BRING STRATUS IN FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH A
CHANCE OF A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS 03-09Z. GIVEN DRY
PBL CONDITIONS (2-M DEWPOINTS -10F TO -15F)...IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY FLURRIES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...CLOSER TO AVAILABLE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM LAKE ONTARIO. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING AS WELL...SO UPPER SUPPORT FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME STRATUS/ALTOSTRATUS APPEARS LIMITED IN
VERMONT. AS A CONSEQUENCE...BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN VERMONT WITH LATER ARRIVAL/LESSER CLOUD COVER. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM -5F TO -15F IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO
+5F TO -5F MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. IN AREAS SEEING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS...SOME OF THESE LOWS WILL OCCUR BY MIDNIGHT WITH NEAR
STEADY TEMPERATURES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

ON SUNDAY...WILL SEE PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AS SFC RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM NWRN ONTARIO SEWD INTO NRN NY AND VERMONT. LOOKING FOR LIGHT
N-NW WINDS AND SOME RENEWED LOW-LEVEL CAA TO OFFSET NORMAL DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TRENDS. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY
BUT CONTINUING BELOW AVERAGE FOR FEBRUARY 1ST...WITH AFTN VALUES
GENERALLY RANGING FROM +8 TO +15F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 314 PM EST SATURDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT BEGINS TRANQUIL WITH
INCREASING MID-UPPER CLOUDS THRU MIDNIGHT AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
HOLDS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. NO PROBLEM FOR ANY
TRAVEL PLANS DURING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG
STRONG SFC-850MB QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY EWD ACROSS PA SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS POSITIVE
TILT...BUT SHOULD HELP FOCUS DOWNSTREAM AREA OF 850-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING AND STRONG UPWARD MOTION TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW TRACK. THE 12Z NWP GUIDANCE SUITE HAS
CONTINUED THE NWD SHIFT OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED QPF
VALUES...WITH THE 12Z GFS GENERALLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
POTENTIAL SNOWFALL IN OUR REGION (0.5-0.7" LIQUID EQUIV). STRONG
850-700MB WAA...A PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MONDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...AND SATURATION IN A 7000FT DEEP DENDRITE
GROWTH LAYER (PER BOTH NAM/GFS POINT SOUNDINGS) SUGGESTS OPTIMIZED
DYNAMICS AND SNOW MICROPHYSICS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN MONDAY. GIVEN COLD COLUMN AND
DENDRITE GROWTH...LOOKING AT SNOW RATIOS POTENTIALLY 18:1 TO 20:1
THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENT...SO GOOD "FLUFF FACTOR" TO PILE UP THE
SNOW (THOUGH PERHAPS HAVING LESS OVERALL IMPACT THAN CORRESPONDING
AMTS OF HEAVY/WET SNOW WOULD). COUNTERING THE SNOW WILL BE DRY PBL
CONDITIONS...SO WE/LL NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONG SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION GRADIENT SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

STEADY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY
AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN TIME FOR THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. MAXIMIZED UVV OCCURS 15-20Z MONDAY TIME
FRAME...AND COULD SEE 1+"/HR SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
S-CENTRAL VERMONT DURING THAT TIME FRAME. LOOKING FOR SNOWFALL
AMTS TO RANGE FROM 8-10" FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN
VERMONT 4-8" ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACKS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO
SRN CALEDONIA COUNTY...AND THEN 2-4" ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR ALL OF CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL
VERMONT 09Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FURTHER NORTH...PERHAPS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS THE EVENT APPROACHES AND MESOSCALE DETAILS AND LOW TRACK
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. GIVEN PROJECTED LOW SNOW DENSITY, THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE TO TRAVEL THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY WITH
SNOWCOVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW. WORST OF
THE TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN VERMONT.

ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW DEPARTS THROUGH THE
GULF OF MAINE MONDAY EVENING. SHOULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS (SERN VT)...AND FALLING GENERALLY BELOW ZERO MONDAY
NIGHT WITH FRESH SNOWPACK AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE
THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT AREA WITH DRY COLD WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY. A WEAK LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING OUR
FIRST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. ON WEDNESDAY A STRONGER LOW CROSSES THE AREA...SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS. EXTENDED FORECAST WILL GENERALLY BE ACTIVE WITH
SEVERAL WEAK LOWS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AND
COLD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SOME NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS WEDNESDAY WHEN LOW WILL BE
CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR SKC CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. A BKN/OVC VFR STRATUS DECK DEPICTED ON EVENING INFRARED
SATELLITE THEN SPREADS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. AS MOISTURE DEPTH
DECREASES WITH EASTWARD EXTENT, ANY DEVELOPING 5-7 SM VISIBILITY
-SHSN AFTER 05Z WILL BE LIMITED TO MSS AND SLK, ENDING BY 10-12Z.
STRATUS DECK WILL THIN INTO SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
NORTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS (EXCEPTION AT MPV WHERE
NORTH WINDS 10 KTS AND GUSTING TO 20 KTS AT TIMES THIS EVENING).

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z MONDAY-09Z MONDAY...VFR.

09Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR SNOWFALL AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. GREATEST IMPACT LIKELY AT MPV/RUT WITH
MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

12Z THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR VTZ008>012-018-019.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KBTV 010437
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1137 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. OTHERWISE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND
PASS JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
BEGINNING IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...AND ANY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1137 PM EST SATURDAY...WITH THE FORECAST GENERALLY IN GOOD
SHAPE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. INCREASING OVERCAST CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES MOVING INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS FORECAST. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED FROM THESE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES OVERNIGHT. ONLY CHANGE
MADE WAS TO BLEND IN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS TO THE GOING FORECAST.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 314 PM SATURDAY FOLLOWS...

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AREAWIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM SERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NEW YORK.
WE/VE SEEN WIND CHILL VALUES OF -10F TO -20F THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
(WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO)...BUT WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW NW
WINDS TO QUICKLY ABATE NEAR/JUST AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. A
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT
SEWD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL SWLY
FLOW WILL BRING STRATUS IN FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH A
CHANCE OF A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS 03-09Z. GIVEN DRY
PBL CONDITIONS (2-M DEWPOINTS -10F TO -15F)...IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY FLURRIES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...CLOSER TO AVAILABLE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM LAKE ONTARIO. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING AS WELL...SO UPPER SUPPORT FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME STRATUS/ALTOSTRATUS APPEARS LIMITED IN
VERMONT. AS A CONSEQUENCE...BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN VERMONT WITH LATER ARRIVAL/LESSER CLOUD COVER. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM -5F TO -15F IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO
+5F TO -5F MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. IN AREAS SEEING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS...SOME OF THESE LOWS WILL OCCUR BY MIDNIGHT WITH NEAR
STEADY TEMPERATURES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

ON SUNDAY...WILL SEE PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AS SFC RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM NWRN ONTARIO SEWD INTO NRN NY AND VERMONT. LOOKING FOR LIGHT
N-NW WINDS AND SOME RENEWED LOW-LEVEL CAA TO OFFSET NORMAL DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TRENDS. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY
BUT CONTINUING BELOW AVERAGE FOR FEBRUARY 1ST...WITH AFTN VALUES
GENERALLY RANGING FROM +8 TO +15F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 314 PM EST SATURDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT BEGINS TRANQUIL WITH
INCREASING MID-UPPER CLOUDS THRU MIDNIGHT AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
HOLDS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. NO PROBLEM FOR ANY
TRAVEL PLANS DURING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG
STRONG SFC-850MB QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY EWD ACROSS PA SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS POSITIVE
TILT...BUT SHOULD HELP FOCUS DOWNSTREAM AREA OF 850-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING AND STRONG UPWARD MOTION TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW TRACK. THE 12Z NWP GUIDANCE SUITE HAS
CONTINUED THE NWD SHIFT OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED QPF
VALUES...WITH THE 12Z GFS GENERALLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
POTENTIAL SNOWFALL IN OUR REGION (0.5-0.7" LIQUID EQUIV). STRONG
850-700MB WAA...A PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MONDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...AND SATURATION IN A 7000FT DEEP DENDRITE
GROWTH LAYER (PER BOTH NAM/GFS POINT SOUNDINGS) SUGGESTS OPTIMIZED
DYNAMICS AND SNOW MICROPHYSICS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN MONDAY. GIVEN COLD COLUMN AND
DENDRITE GROWTH...LOOKING AT SNOW RATIOS POTENTIALLY 18:1 TO 20:1
THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENT...SO GOOD "FLUFF FACTOR" TO PILE UP THE
SNOW (THOUGH PERHAPS HAVING LESS OVERALL IMPACT THAN CORRESPONDING
AMTS OF HEAVY/WET SNOW WOULD). COUNTERING THE SNOW WILL BE DRY PBL
CONDITIONS...SO WE/LL NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONG SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION GRADIENT SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

STEADY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY
AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN TIME FOR THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. MAXIMIZED UVV OCCURS 15-20Z MONDAY TIME
FRAME...AND COULD SEE 1+"/HR SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
S-CENTRAL VERMONT DURING THAT TIME FRAME. LOOKING FOR SNOWFALL
AMTS TO RANGE FROM 8-10" FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN
VERMONT 4-8" ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACKS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO
SRN CALEDONIA COUNTY...AND THEN 2-4" ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR ALL OF CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL
VERMONT 09Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FURTHER NORTH...PERHAPS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS THE EVENT APPROACHES AND MESOSCALE DETAILS AND LOW TRACK
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. GIVEN PROJECTED LOW SNOW DENSITY, THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE TO TRAVEL THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY WITH
SNOWCOVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW. WORST OF
THE TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN VERMONT.

ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW DEPARTS THROUGH THE
GULF OF MAINE MONDAY EVENING. SHOULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS (SERN VT)...AND FALLING GENERALLY BELOW ZERO MONDAY
NIGHT WITH FRESH SNOWPACK AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE
THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT AREA WITH DRY COLD WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY. A WEAK LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING OUR
FIRST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. ON WEDNESDAY A STRONGER LOW CROSSES THE AREA...SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS. EXTENDED FORECAST WILL GENERALLY BE ACTIVE WITH
SEVERAL WEAK LOWS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AND
COLD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SOME NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS WEDNESDAY WHEN LOW WILL BE
CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR SKC CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. A BKN/OVC VFR STRATUS DECK DEPICTED ON EVENING INFRARED
SATELLITE THEN SPREADS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. AS MOISTURE DEPTH
DECREASES WITH EASTWARD EXTENT, ANY DEVELOPING 5-7 SM VISIBILITY
-SHSN AFTER 05Z WILL BE LIMITED TO MSS AND SLK, ENDING BY 10-12Z.
STRATUS DECK WILL THIN INTO SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
NORTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS (EXCEPTION AT MPV WHERE
NORTH WINDS 10 KTS AND GUSTING TO 20 KTS AT TIMES THIS EVENING).

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z MONDAY-09Z MONDAY...VFR.

09Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR SNOWFALL AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. GREATEST IMPACT LIKELY AT MPV/RUT WITH
MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

12Z THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR VTZ008>012-018-019.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KBTV 010249
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
949 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. OTHERWISE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND
PASS JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
BEGINNING IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...AND ANY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 948 PM EST SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE PRETTY MUCH BEEN A
MISH-MASH OF SORTS THIS EVENING WITH RATHER WIDE VARIATION OVER
SMALL DISTANCES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT, AS IS CONSISTENT WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DECOUPLING WIND CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE THOUGH AS FOG PRODUCT SHOWS LAYER OF OVERCAST
STRATUS NOW MOVING INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS BEING REPORTED IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS UNDER THIS OVERCAST. STILL THINK HOLDING OFF ON LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE ADIRONDACKS MAKES SENSE AS MOISTURE
CONTENT OF THE AIR IS TOO DRY. ONLY CHANGE THAT I`VE MADE TO THE
GOING FORECAST WAS TO TRY TO BETTER SHOW NEAR-TERM TREND IN
TEMPERATURES. LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED IN AREAS
WHERE PERSISTENT STRATUS HAS MOVED IN, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
INTO VERMONT BY A FEW MORE DEGREES.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 314 PM SATURDAY FOLLOWS...

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AREAWIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM SERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NEW YORK.
WE/VE SEEN WIND CHILL VALUES OF -10F TO -20F THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
(WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO)...BUT WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW NW
WINDS TO QUICKLY ABATE NEAR/JUST AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. A
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT
SEWD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL SWLY
FLOW WILL BRING STRATUS IN FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH A
CHANCE OF A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS 03-09Z. GIVEN DRY
PBL CONDITIONS (2-M DEWPOINTS -10F TO -15F)...IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY FLURRIES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...CLOSER TO AVAILABLE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM LAKE ONTARIO. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING AS WELL...SO UPPER SUPPORT FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME STRATUS/ALTOSTRATUS APPEARS LIMITED IN
VERMONT. AS A CONSEQUENCE...BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN VERMONT WITH LATER ARRIVAL/LESSER CLOUD COVER. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM -5F TO -15F IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO
+5F TO -5F MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. IN AREAS SEEING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS...SOME OF THESE LOWS WILL OCCUR BY MIDNIGHT WITH NEAR
STEADY TEMPERATURES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

ON SUNDAY...WILL SEE PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AS SFC RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM NWRN ONTARIO SEWD INTO NRN NY AND VERMONT. LOOKING FOR LIGHT
N-NW WINDS AND SOME RENEWED LOW-LEVEL CAA TO OFFSET NORMAL DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TRENDS. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY
BUT CONTINUING BELOW AVERAGE FOR FEBRUARY 1ST...WITH AFTN VALUES
GENERALLY RANGING FROM +8 TO +15F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 314 PM EST SATURDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT BEGINS TRANQUIL WITH
INCREASING MID-UPPER CLOUDS THRU MIDNIGHT AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
HOLDS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. NO PROBLEM FOR ANY
TRAVEL PLANS DURING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG
STRONG SFC-850MB QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY EWD ACROSS PA SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS POSITIVE
TILT...BUT SHOULD HELP FOCUS DOWNSTREAM AREA OF 850-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING AND STRONG UPWARD MOTION TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW TRACK. THE 12Z NWP GUIDANCE SUITE HAS
CONTINUED THE NWD SHIFT OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED QPF
VALUES...WITH THE 12Z GFS GENERALLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
POTENTIAL SNOWFALL IN OUR REGION (0.5-0.7" LIQUID EQUIV). STRONG
850-700MB WAA...A PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MONDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...AND SATURATION IN A 7000FT DEEP DENDRITE
GROWTH LAYER (PER BOTH NAM/GFS POINT SOUNDINGS) SUGGESTS OPTIMIZED
DYNAMICS AND SNOW MICROPHYSICS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN MONDAY. GIVEN COLD COLUMN AND
DENDRITE GROWTH...LOOKING AT SNOW RATIOS POTENTIALLY 18:1 TO 20:1
THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENT...SO GOOD "FLUFF FACTOR" TO PILE UP THE
SNOW (THOUGH PERHAPS HAVING LESS OVERALL IMPACT THAN CORRESPONDING
AMTS OF HEAVY/WET SNOW WOULD). COUNTERING THE SNOW WILL BE DRY PBL
CONDITIONS...SO WE/LL NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONG SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION GRADIENT SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

STEADY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY
AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN TIME FOR THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. MAXIMIZED UVV OCCURS 15-20Z MONDAY TIME
FRAME...AND COULD SEE 1+"/HR SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
S-CENTRAL VERMONT DURING THAT TIME FRAME. LOOKING FOR SNOWFALL
AMTS TO RANGE FROM 8-10" FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN
VERMONT 4-8" ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACKS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO
SRN CALEDONIA COUNTY...AND THEN 2-4" ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR ALL OF CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL
VERMONT 09Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FURTHER NORTH...PERHAPS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS THE EVENT APPROACHES AND MESOSCALE DETAILS AND LOW TRACK
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. GIVEN PROJECTED LOW SNOW DENSITY, THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE TO TRAVEL THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY WITH
SNOWCOVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW. WORST OF
THE TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN VERMONT.

ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW DEPARTS THROUGH THE
GULF OF MAINE MONDAY EVENING. SHOULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS (SERN VT)...AND FALLING GENERALLY BELOW ZERO MONDAY
NIGHT WITH FRESH SNOWPACK AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE
THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT AREA WITH DRY COLD WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY. A WEAK LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING OUR
FIRST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. ON WEDNESDAY A STRONGER LOW CROSSES THE AREA...SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS. EXTENDED FORECAST WILL GENERALLY BE ACTIVE WITH
SEVERAL WEAK LOWS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AND
COLD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SOME NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS WEDNESDAY WHEN LOW WILL BE
CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR SKC CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. A BKN/OVC VFR STRATUS DECK DEPICTED ON EVENING INFRARED
SATELLITE THEN SPREADS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. AS MOISTURE DEPTH
DECREASES WITH EASTWARD EXTENT, ANY DEVELOPING 5-7 SM VISIBILITY
-SHSN AFTER 05Z WILL BE LIMITED TO MSS AND SLK, ENDING BY 10-12Z.
STRATUS DECK WILL THIN INTO SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
NORTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS (EXCEPTION AT MPV WHERE
NORTH WINDS 10 KTS AND GUSTING TO 20 KTS AT TIMES THIS EVENING).

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z MONDAY-09Z MONDAY...VFR.

09Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR SNOWFALL AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. GREATEST IMPACT LIKELY AT MPV/RUT WITH
MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

12Z THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR VTZ008>012-018-019.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010249
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
949 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. OTHERWISE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND
PASS JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
BEGINNING IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...AND ANY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 948 PM EST SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE PRETTY MUCH BEEN A
MISH-MASH OF SORTS THIS EVENING WITH RATHER WIDE VARIATION OVER
SMALL DISTANCES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT, AS IS CONSISTENT WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DECOUPLING WIND CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE THOUGH AS FOG PRODUCT SHOWS LAYER OF OVERCAST
STRATUS NOW MOVING INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS BEING REPORTED IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS UNDER THIS OVERCAST. STILL THINK HOLDING OFF ON LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE ADIRONDACKS MAKES SENSE AS MOISTURE
CONTENT OF THE AIR IS TOO DRY. ONLY CHANGE THAT I`VE MADE TO THE
GOING FORECAST WAS TO TRY TO BETTER SHOW NEAR-TERM TREND IN
TEMPERATURES. LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED IN AREAS
WHERE PERSISTENT STRATUS HAS MOVED IN, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
INTO VERMONT BY A FEW MORE DEGREES.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 314 PM SATURDAY FOLLOWS...

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AREAWIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM SERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NEW YORK.
WE/VE SEEN WIND CHILL VALUES OF -10F TO -20F THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
(WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO)...BUT WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW NW
WINDS TO QUICKLY ABATE NEAR/JUST AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. A
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT
SEWD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL SWLY
FLOW WILL BRING STRATUS IN FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH A
CHANCE OF A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS 03-09Z. GIVEN DRY
PBL CONDITIONS (2-M DEWPOINTS -10F TO -15F)...IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY FLURRIES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...CLOSER TO AVAILABLE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM LAKE ONTARIO. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING AS WELL...SO UPPER SUPPORT FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME STRATUS/ALTOSTRATUS APPEARS LIMITED IN
VERMONT. AS A CONSEQUENCE...BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN VERMONT WITH LATER ARRIVAL/LESSER CLOUD COVER. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM -5F TO -15F IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO
+5F TO -5F MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. IN AREAS SEEING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS...SOME OF THESE LOWS WILL OCCUR BY MIDNIGHT WITH NEAR
STEADY TEMPERATURES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

ON SUNDAY...WILL SEE PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AS SFC RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM NWRN ONTARIO SEWD INTO NRN NY AND VERMONT. LOOKING FOR LIGHT
N-NW WINDS AND SOME RENEWED LOW-LEVEL CAA TO OFFSET NORMAL DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TRENDS. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY
BUT CONTINUING BELOW AVERAGE FOR FEBRUARY 1ST...WITH AFTN VALUES
GENERALLY RANGING FROM +8 TO +15F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 314 PM EST SATURDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT BEGINS TRANQUIL WITH
INCREASING MID-UPPER CLOUDS THRU MIDNIGHT AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
HOLDS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. NO PROBLEM FOR ANY
TRAVEL PLANS DURING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG
STRONG SFC-850MB QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY EWD ACROSS PA SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS POSITIVE
TILT...BUT SHOULD HELP FOCUS DOWNSTREAM AREA OF 850-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING AND STRONG UPWARD MOTION TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW TRACK. THE 12Z NWP GUIDANCE SUITE HAS
CONTINUED THE NWD SHIFT OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED QPF
VALUES...WITH THE 12Z GFS GENERALLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
POTENTIAL SNOWFALL IN OUR REGION (0.5-0.7" LIQUID EQUIV). STRONG
850-700MB WAA...A PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MONDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...AND SATURATION IN A 7000FT DEEP DENDRITE
GROWTH LAYER (PER BOTH NAM/GFS POINT SOUNDINGS) SUGGESTS OPTIMIZED
DYNAMICS AND SNOW MICROPHYSICS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN MONDAY. GIVEN COLD COLUMN AND
DENDRITE GROWTH...LOOKING AT SNOW RATIOS POTENTIALLY 18:1 TO 20:1
THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENT...SO GOOD "FLUFF FACTOR" TO PILE UP THE
SNOW (THOUGH PERHAPS HAVING LESS OVERALL IMPACT THAN CORRESPONDING
AMTS OF HEAVY/WET SNOW WOULD). COUNTERING THE SNOW WILL BE DRY PBL
CONDITIONS...SO WE/LL NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONG SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION GRADIENT SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

STEADY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY
AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN TIME FOR THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. MAXIMIZED UVV OCCURS 15-20Z MONDAY TIME
FRAME...AND COULD SEE 1+"/HR SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
S-CENTRAL VERMONT DURING THAT TIME FRAME. LOOKING FOR SNOWFALL
AMTS TO RANGE FROM 8-10" FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN
VERMONT 4-8" ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACKS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO
SRN CALEDONIA COUNTY...AND THEN 2-4" ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR ALL OF CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL
VERMONT 09Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FURTHER NORTH...PERHAPS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS THE EVENT APPROACHES AND MESOSCALE DETAILS AND LOW TRACK
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. GIVEN PROJECTED LOW SNOW DENSITY, THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE TO TRAVEL THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY WITH
SNOWCOVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW. WORST OF
THE TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN VERMONT.

ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW DEPARTS THROUGH THE
GULF OF MAINE MONDAY EVENING. SHOULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS (SERN VT)...AND FALLING GENERALLY BELOW ZERO MONDAY
NIGHT WITH FRESH SNOWPACK AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE
THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT AREA WITH DRY COLD WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY. A WEAK LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING OUR
FIRST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. ON WEDNESDAY A STRONGER LOW CROSSES THE AREA...SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS. EXTENDED FORECAST WILL GENERALLY BE ACTIVE WITH
SEVERAL WEAK LOWS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AND
COLD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SOME NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS WEDNESDAY WHEN LOW WILL BE
CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR SKC CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. A BKN/OVC VFR STRATUS DECK DEPICTED ON EVENING INFRARED
SATELLITE THEN SPREADS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. AS MOISTURE DEPTH
DECREASES WITH EASTWARD EXTENT, ANY DEVELOPING 5-7 SM VISIBILITY
-SHSN AFTER 05Z WILL BE LIMITED TO MSS AND SLK, ENDING BY 10-12Z.
STRATUS DECK WILL THIN INTO SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
NORTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS (EXCEPTION AT MPV WHERE
NORTH WINDS 10 KTS AND GUSTING TO 20 KTS AT TIMES THIS EVENING).

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z MONDAY-09Z MONDAY...VFR.

09Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR SNOWFALL AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. GREATEST IMPACT LIKELY AT MPV/RUT WITH
MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

12Z THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR VTZ008>012-018-019.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010249
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
949 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. OTHERWISE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND
PASS JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
BEGINNING IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...AND ANY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 948 PM EST SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE PRETTY MUCH BEEN A
MISH-MASH OF SORTS THIS EVENING WITH RATHER WIDE VARIATION OVER
SMALL DISTANCES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT, AS IS CONSISTENT WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DECOUPLING WIND CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE THOUGH AS FOG PRODUCT SHOWS LAYER OF OVERCAST
STRATUS NOW MOVING INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS BEING REPORTED IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS UNDER THIS OVERCAST. STILL THINK HOLDING OFF ON LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE ADIRONDACKS MAKES SENSE AS MOISTURE
CONTENT OF THE AIR IS TOO DRY. ONLY CHANGE THAT I`VE MADE TO THE
GOING FORECAST WAS TO TRY TO BETTER SHOW NEAR-TERM TREND IN
TEMPERATURES. LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED IN AREAS
WHERE PERSISTENT STRATUS HAS MOVED IN, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
INTO VERMONT BY A FEW MORE DEGREES.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 314 PM SATURDAY FOLLOWS...

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AREAWIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM SERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NEW YORK.
WE/VE SEEN WIND CHILL VALUES OF -10F TO -20F THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
(WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO)...BUT WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW NW
WINDS TO QUICKLY ABATE NEAR/JUST AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. A
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT
SEWD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL SWLY
FLOW WILL BRING STRATUS IN FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH A
CHANCE OF A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS 03-09Z. GIVEN DRY
PBL CONDITIONS (2-M DEWPOINTS -10F TO -15F)...IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY FLURRIES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...CLOSER TO AVAILABLE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM LAKE ONTARIO. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING AS WELL...SO UPPER SUPPORT FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME STRATUS/ALTOSTRATUS APPEARS LIMITED IN
VERMONT. AS A CONSEQUENCE...BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN VERMONT WITH LATER ARRIVAL/LESSER CLOUD COVER. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM -5F TO -15F IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO
+5F TO -5F MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. IN AREAS SEEING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS...SOME OF THESE LOWS WILL OCCUR BY MIDNIGHT WITH NEAR
STEADY TEMPERATURES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

ON SUNDAY...WILL SEE PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AS SFC RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM NWRN ONTARIO SEWD INTO NRN NY AND VERMONT. LOOKING FOR LIGHT
N-NW WINDS AND SOME RENEWED LOW-LEVEL CAA TO OFFSET NORMAL DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TRENDS. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY
BUT CONTINUING BELOW AVERAGE FOR FEBRUARY 1ST...WITH AFTN VALUES
GENERALLY RANGING FROM +8 TO +15F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 314 PM EST SATURDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT BEGINS TRANQUIL WITH
INCREASING MID-UPPER CLOUDS THRU MIDNIGHT AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
HOLDS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. NO PROBLEM FOR ANY
TRAVEL PLANS DURING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG
STRONG SFC-850MB QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY EWD ACROSS PA SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS POSITIVE
TILT...BUT SHOULD HELP FOCUS DOWNSTREAM AREA OF 850-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING AND STRONG UPWARD MOTION TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW TRACK. THE 12Z NWP GUIDANCE SUITE HAS
CONTINUED THE NWD SHIFT OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED QPF
VALUES...WITH THE 12Z GFS GENERALLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
POTENTIAL SNOWFALL IN OUR REGION (0.5-0.7" LIQUID EQUIV). STRONG
850-700MB WAA...A PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MONDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...AND SATURATION IN A 7000FT DEEP DENDRITE
GROWTH LAYER (PER BOTH NAM/GFS POINT SOUNDINGS) SUGGESTS OPTIMIZED
DYNAMICS AND SNOW MICROPHYSICS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN MONDAY. GIVEN COLD COLUMN AND
DENDRITE GROWTH...LOOKING AT SNOW RATIOS POTENTIALLY 18:1 TO 20:1
THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENT...SO GOOD "FLUFF FACTOR" TO PILE UP THE
SNOW (THOUGH PERHAPS HAVING LESS OVERALL IMPACT THAN CORRESPONDING
AMTS OF HEAVY/WET SNOW WOULD). COUNTERING THE SNOW WILL BE DRY PBL
CONDITIONS...SO WE/LL NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONG SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION GRADIENT SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

STEADY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY
AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN TIME FOR THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. MAXIMIZED UVV OCCURS 15-20Z MONDAY TIME
FRAME...AND COULD SEE 1+"/HR SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
S-CENTRAL VERMONT DURING THAT TIME FRAME. LOOKING FOR SNOWFALL
AMTS TO RANGE FROM 8-10" FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN
VERMONT 4-8" ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACKS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO
SRN CALEDONIA COUNTY...AND THEN 2-4" ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR ALL OF CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL
VERMONT 09Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FURTHER NORTH...PERHAPS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS THE EVENT APPROACHES AND MESOSCALE DETAILS AND LOW TRACK
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. GIVEN PROJECTED LOW SNOW DENSITY, THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE TO TRAVEL THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY WITH
SNOWCOVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW. WORST OF
THE TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN VERMONT.

ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW DEPARTS THROUGH THE
GULF OF MAINE MONDAY EVENING. SHOULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS (SERN VT)...AND FALLING GENERALLY BELOW ZERO MONDAY
NIGHT WITH FRESH SNOWPACK AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE
THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT AREA WITH DRY COLD WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY. A WEAK LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING OUR
FIRST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. ON WEDNESDAY A STRONGER LOW CROSSES THE AREA...SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS. EXTENDED FORECAST WILL GENERALLY BE ACTIVE WITH
SEVERAL WEAK LOWS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AND
COLD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SOME NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS WEDNESDAY WHEN LOW WILL BE
CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR SKC CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. A BKN/OVC VFR STRATUS DECK DEPICTED ON EVENING INFRARED
SATELLITE THEN SPREADS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. AS MOISTURE DEPTH
DECREASES WITH EASTWARD EXTENT, ANY DEVELOPING 5-7 SM VISIBILITY
-SHSN AFTER 05Z WILL BE LIMITED TO MSS AND SLK, ENDING BY 10-12Z.
STRATUS DECK WILL THIN INTO SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
NORTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS (EXCEPTION AT MPV WHERE
NORTH WINDS 10 KTS AND GUSTING TO 20 KTS AT TIMES THIS EVENING).

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z MONDAY-09Z MONDAY...VFR.

09Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR SNOWFALL AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. GREATEST IMPACT LIKELY AT MPV/RUT WITH
MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

12Z THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR VTZ008>012-018-019.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010249
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
949 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. OTHERWISE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND
PASS JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
BEGINNING IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...AND ANY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 948 PM EST SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE PRETTY MUCH BEEN A
MISH-MASH OF SORTS THIS EVENING WITH RATHER WIDE VARIATION OVER
SMALL DISTANCES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT, AS IS CONSISTENT WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DECOUPLING WIND CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE THOUGH AS FOG PRODUCT SHOWS LAYER OF OVERCAST
STRATUS NOW MOVING INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS BEING REPORTED IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS UNDER THIS OVERCAST. STILL THINK HOLDING OFF ON LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE ADIRONDACKS MAKES SENSE AS MOISTURE
CONTENT OF THE AIR IS TOO DRY. ONLY CHANGE THAT I`VE MADE TO THE
GOING FORECAST WAS TO TRY TO BETTER SHOW NEAR-TERM TREND IN
TEMPERATURES. LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED IN AREAS
WHERE PERSISTENT STRATUS HAS MOVED IN, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
INTO VERMONT BY A FEW MORE DEGREES.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 314 PM SATURDAY FOLLOWS...

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AREAWIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM SERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NEW YORK.
WE/VE SEEN WIND CHILL VALUES OF -10F TO -20F THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
(WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO)...BUT WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW NW
WINDS TO QUICKLY ABATE NEAR/JUST AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. A
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT
SEWD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL SWLY
FLOW WILL BRING STRATUS IN FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH A
CHANCE OF A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS 03-09Z. GIVEN DRY
PBL CONDITIONS (2-M DEWPOINTS -10F TO -15F)...IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY FLURRIES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...CLOSER TO AVAILABLE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM LAKE ONTARIO. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING AS WELL...SO UPPER SUPPORT FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME STRATUS/ALTOSTRATUS APPEARS LIMITED IN
VERMONT. AS A CONSEQUENCE...BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN VERMONT WITH LATER ARRIVAL/LESSER CLOUD COVER. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM -5F TO -15F IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO
+5F TO -5F MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. IN AREAS SEEING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS...SOME OF THESE LOWS WILL OCCUR BY MIDNIGHT WITH NEAR
STEADY TEMPERATURES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

ON SUNDAY...WILL SEE PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AS SFC RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM NWRN ONTARIO SEWD INTO NRN NY AND VERMONT. LOOKING FOR LIGHT
N-NW WINDS AND SOME RENEWED LOW-LEVEL CAA TO OFFSET NORMAL DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TRENDS. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY
BUT CONTINUING BELOW AVERAGE FOR FEBRUARY 1ST...WITH AFTN VALUES
GENERALLY RANGING FROM +8 TO +15F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 314 PM EST SATURDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT BEGINS TRANQUIL WITH
INCREASING MID-UPPER CLOUDS THRU MIDNIGHT AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
HOLDS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. NO PROBLEM FOR ANY
TRAVEL PLANS DURING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG
STRONG SFC-850MB QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY EWD ACROSS PA SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS POSITIVE
TILT...BUT SHOULD HELP FOCUS DOWNSTREAM AREA OF 850-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING AND STRONG UPWARD MOTION TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW TRACK. THE 12Z NWP GUIDANCE SUITE HAS
CONTINUED THE NWD SHIFT OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED QPF
VALUES...WITH THE 12Z GFS GENERALLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
POTENTIAL SNOWFALL IN OUR REGION (0.5-0.7" LIQUID EQUIV). STRONG
850-700MB WAA...A PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MONDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...AND SATURATION IN A 7000FT DEEP DENDRITE
GROWTH LAYER (PER BOTH NAM/GFS POINT SOUNDINGS) SUGGESTS OPTIMIZED
DYNAMICS AND SNOW MICROPHYSICS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN MONDAY. GIVEN COLD COLUMN AND
DENDRITE GROWTH...LOOKING AT SNOW RATIOS POTENTIALLY 18:1 TO 20:1
THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENT...SO GOOD "FLUFF FACTOR" TO PILE UP THE
SNOW (THOUGH PERHAPS HAVING LESS OVERALL IMPACT THAN CORRESPONDING
AMTS OF HEAVY/WET SNOW WOULD). COUNTERING THE SNOW WILL BE DRY PBL
CONDITIONS...SO WE/LL NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONG SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION GRADIENT SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

STEADY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY
AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN TIME FOR THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. MAXIMIZED UVV OCCURS 15-20Z MONDAY TIME
FRAME...AND COULD SEE 1+"/HR SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
S-CENTRAL VERMONT DURING THAT TIME FRAME. LOOKING FOR SNOWFALL
AMTS TO RANGE FROM 8-10" FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN
VERMONT 4-8" ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACKS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO
SRN CALEDONIA COUNTY...AND THEN 2-4" ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR ALL OF CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL
VERMONT 09Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FURTHER NORTH...PERHAPS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS THE EVENT APPROACHES AND MESOSCALE DETAILS AND LOW TRACK
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. GIVEN PROJECTED LOW SNOW DENSITY, THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE TO TRAVEL THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY WITH
SNOWCOVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW. WORST OF
THE TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN VERMONT.

ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW DEPARTS THROUGH THE
GULF OF MAINE MONDAY EVENING. SHOULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS (SERN VT)...AND FALLING GENERALLY BELOW ZERO MONDAY
NIGHT WITH FRESH SNOWPACK AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE
THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT AREA WITH DRY COLD WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY. A WEAK LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING OUR
FIRST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. ON WEDNESDAY A STRONGER LOW CROSSES THE AREA...SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS. EXTENDED FORECAST WILL GENERALLY BE ACTIVE WITH
SEVERAL WEAK LOWS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AND
COLD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SOME NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS WEDNESDAY WHEN LOW WILL BE
CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR SKC CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. A BKN/OVC VFR STRATUS DECK DEPICTED ON EVENING INFRARED
SATELLITE THEN SPREADS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. AS MOISTURE DEPTH
DECREASES WITH EASTWARD EXTENT, ANY DEVELOPING 5-7 SM VISIBILITY
-SHSN AFTER 05Z WILL BE LIMITED TO MSS AND SLK, ENDING BY 10-12Z.
STRATUS DECK WILL THIN INTO SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
NORTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS (EXCEPTION AT MPV WHERE
NORTH WINDS 10 KTS AND GUSTING TO 20 KTS AT TIMES THIS EVENING).

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z MONDAY-09Z MONDAY...VFR.

09Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR SNOWFALL AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. GREATEST IMPACT LIKELY AT MPV/RUT WITH
MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

12Z THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR VTZ008>012-018-019.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010249
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
949 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. OTHERWISE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND
PASS JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
BEGINNING IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...AND ANY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 948 PM EST SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE PRETTY MUCH BEEN A
MISH-MASH OF SORTS THIS EVENING WITH RATHER WIDE VARIATION OVER
SMALL DISTANCES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT, AS IS CONSISTENT WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DECOUPLING WIND CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE THOUGH AS FOG PRODUCT SHOWS LAYER OF OVERCAST
STRATUS NOW MOVING INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS BEING REPORTED IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS UNDER THIS OVERCAST. STILL THINK HOLDING OFF ON LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE ADIRONDACKS MAKES SENSE AS MOISTURE
CONTENT OF THE AIR IS TOO DRY. ONLY CHANGE THAT I`VE MADE TO THE
GOING FORECAST WAS TO TRY TO BETTER SHOW NEAR-TERM TREND IN
TEMPERATURES. LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED IN AREAS
WHERE PERSISTENT STRATUS HAS MOVED IN, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
INTO VERMONT BY A FEW MORE DEGREES.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 314 PM SATURDAY FOLLOWS...

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AREAWIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM SERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NEW YORK.
WE/VE SEEN WIND CHILL VALUES OF -10F TO -20F THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
(WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO)...BUT WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW NW
WINDS TO QUICKLY ABATE NEAR/JUST AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. A
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT
SEWD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL SWLY
FLOW WILL BRING STRATUS IN FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH A
CHANCE OF A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS 03-09Z. GIVEN DRY
PBL CONDITIONS (2-M DEWPOINTS -10F TO -15F)...IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY FLURRIES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...CLOSER TO AVAILABLE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM LAKE ONTARIO. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING AS WELL...SO UPPER SUPPORT FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME STRATUS/ALTOSTRATUS APPEARS LIMITED IN
VERMONT. AS A CONSEQUENCE...BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN VERMONT WITH LATER ARRIVAL/LESSER CLOUD COVER. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM -5F TO -15F IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO
+5F TO -5F MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. IN AREAS SEEING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS...SOME OF THESE LOWS WILL OCCUR BY MIDNIGHT WITH NEAR
STEADY TEMPERATURES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

ON SUNDAY...WILL SEE PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AS SFC RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM NWRN ONTARIO SEWD INTO NRN NY AND VERMONT. LOOKING FOR LIGHT
N-NW WINDS AND SOME RENEWED LOW-LEVEL CAA TO OFFSET NORMAL DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TRENDS. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY
BUT CONTINUING BELOW AVERAGE FOR FEBRUARY 1ST...WITH AFTN VALUES
GENERALLY RANGING FROM +8 TO +15F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 314 PM EST SATURDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT BEGINS TRANQUIL WITH
INCREASING MID-UPPER CLOUDS THRU MIDNIGHT AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
HOLDS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. NO PROBLEM FOR ANY
TRAVEL PLANS DURING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG
STRONG SFC-850MB QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY EWD ACROSS PA SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS POSITIVE
TILT...BUT SHOULD HELP FOCUS DOWNSTREAM AREA OF 850-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING AND STRONG UPWARD MOTION TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW TRACK. THE 12Z NWP GUIDANCE SUITE HAS
CONTINUED THE NWD SHIFT OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED QPF
VALUES...WITH THE 12Z GFS GENERALLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
POTENTIAL SNOWFALL IN OUR REGION (0.5-0.7" LIQUID EQUIV). STRONG
850-700MB WAA...A PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MONDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...AND SATURATION IN A 7000FT DEEP DENDRITE
GROWTH LAYER (PER BOTH NAM/GFS POINT SOUNDINGS) SUGGESTS OPTIMIZED
DYNAMICS AND SNOW MICROPHYSICS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN MONDAY. GIVEN COLD COLUMN AND
DENDRITE GROWTH...LOOKING AT SNOW RATIOS POTENTIALLY 18:1 TO 20:1
THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENT...SO GOOD "FLUFF FACTOR" TO PILE UP THE
SNOW (THOUGH PERHAPS HAVING LESS OVERALL IMPACT THAN CORRESPONDING
AMTS OF HEAVY/WET SNOW WOULD). COUNTERING THE SNOW WILL BE DRY PBL
CONDITIONS...SO WE/LL NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONG SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION GRADIENT SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

STEADY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY
AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN TIME FOR THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. MAXIMIZED UVV OCCURS 15-20Z MONDAY TIME
FRAME...AND COULD SEE 1+"/HR SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
S-CENTRAL VERMONT DURING THAT TIME FRAME. LOOKING FOR SNOWFALL
AMTS TO RANGE FROM 8-10" FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN
VERMONT 4-8" ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACKS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO
SRN CALEDONIA COUNTY...AND THEN 2-4" ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR ALL OF CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL
VERMONT 09Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FURTHER NORTH...PERHAPS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS THE EVENT APPROACHES AND MESOSCALE DETAILS AND LOW TRACK
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. GIVEN PROJECTED LOW SNOW DENSITY, THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE TO TRAVEL THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY WITH
SNOWCOVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW. WORST OF
THE TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN VERMONT.

ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW DEPARTS THROUGH THE
GULF OF MAINE MONDAY EVENING. SHOULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS (SERN VT)...AND FALLING GENERALLY BELOW ZERO MONDAY
NIGHT WITH FRESH SNOWPACK AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE
THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT AREA WITH DRY COLD WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY. A WEAK LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING OUR
FIRST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. ON WEDNESDAY A STRONGER LOW CROSSES THE AREA...SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS. EXTENDED FORECAST WILL GENERALLY BE ACTIVE WITH
SEVERAL WEAK LOWS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AND
COLD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SOME NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS WEDNESDAY WHEN LOW WILL BE
CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR SKC CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. A BKN/OVC VFR STRATUS DECK DEPICTED ON EVENING INFRARED
SATELLITE THEN SPREADS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. AS MOISTURE DEPTH
DECREASES WITH EASTWARD EXTENT, ANY DEVELOPING 5-7 SM VISIBILITY
-SHSN AFTER 05Z WILL BE LIMITED TO MSS AND SLK, ENDING BY 10-12Z.
STRATUS DECK WILL THIN INTO SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
NORTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS (EXCEPTION AT MPV WHERE
NORTH WINDS 10 KTS AND GUSTING TO 20 KTS AT TIMES THIS EVENING).

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z MONDAY-09Z MONDAY...VFR.

09Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR SNOWFALL AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. GREATEST IMPACT LIKELY AT MPV/RUT WITH
MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

12Z THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR VTZ008>012-018-019.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010249
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
949 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. OTHERWISE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND
PASS JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
BEGINNING IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...AND ANY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 948 PM EST SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE PRETTY MUCH BEEN A
MISH-MASH OF SORTS THIS EVENING WITH RATHER WIDE VARIATION OVER
SMALL DISTANCES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT, AS IS CONSISTENT WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DECOUPLING WIND CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE THOUGH AS FOG PRODUCT SHOWS LAYER OF OVERCAST
STRATUS NOW MOVING INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS BEING REPORTED IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS UNDER THIS OVERCAST. STILL THINK HOLDING OFF ON LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE ADIRONDACKS MAKES SENSE AS MOISTURE
CONTENT OF THE AIR IS TOO DRY. ONLY CHANGE THAT I`VE MADE TO THE
GOING FORECAST WAS TO TRY TO BETTER SHOW NEAR-TERM TREND IN
TEMPERATURES. LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED IN AREAS
WHERE PERSISTENT STRATUS HAS MOVED IN, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
INTO VERMONT BY A FEW MORE DEGREES.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 314 PM SATURDAY FOLLOWS...

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AREAWIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM SERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NEW YORK.
WE/VE SEEN WIND CHILL VALUES OF -10F TO -20F THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
(WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO)...BUT WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW NW
WINDS TO QUICKLY ABATE NEAR/JUST AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. A
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT
SEWD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL SWLY
FLOW WILL BRING STRATUS IN FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH A
CHANCE OF A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS 03-09Z. GIVEN DRY
PBL CONDITIONS (2-M DEWPOINTS -10F TO -15F)...IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY FLURRIES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...CLOSER TO AVAILABLE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM LAKE ONTARIO. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING AS WELL...SO UPPER SUPPORT FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME STRATUS/ALTOSTRATUS APPEARS LIMITED IN
VERMONT. AS A CONSEQUENCE...BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN VERMONT WITH LATER ARRIVAL/LESSER CLOUD COVER. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM -5F TO -15F IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO
+5F TO -5F MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. IN AREAS SEEING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS...SOME OF THESE LOWS WILL OCCUR BY MIDNIGHT WITH NEAR
STEADY TEMPERATURES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

ON SUNDAY...WILL SEE PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AS SFC RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM NWRN ONTARIO SEWD INTO NRN NY AND VERMONT. LOOKING FOR LIGHT
N-NW WINDS AND SOME RENEWED LOW-LEVEL CAA TO OFFSET NORMAL DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TRENDS. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY
BUT CONTINUING BELOW AVERAGE FOR FEBRUARY 1ST...WITH AFTN VALUES
GENERALLY RANGING FROM +8 TO +15F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 314 PM EST SATURDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT BEGINS TRANQUIL WITH
INCREASING MID-UPPER CLOUDS THRU MIDNIGHT AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
HOLDS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. NO PROBLEM FOR ANY
TRAVEL PLANS DURING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG
STRONG SFC-850MB QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY EWD ACROSS PA SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS POSITIVE
TILT...BUT SHOULD HELP FOCUS DOWNSTREAM AREA OF 850-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING AND STRONG UPWARD MOTION TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW TRACK. THE 12Z NWP GUIDANCE SUITE HAS
CONTINUED THE NWD SHIFT OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED QPF
VALUES...WITH THE 12Z GFS GENERALLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
POTENTIAL SNOWFALL IN OUR REGION (0.5-0.7" LIQUID EQUIV). STRONG
850-700MB WAA...A PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MONDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...AND SATURATION IN A 7000FT DEEP DENDRITE
GROWTH LAYER (PER BOTH NAM/GFS POINT SOUNDINGS) SUGGESTS OPTIMIZED
DYNAMICS AND SNOW MICROPHYSICS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN MONDAY. GIVEN COLD COLUMN AND
DENDRITE GROWTH...LOOKING AT SNOW RATIOS POTENTIALLY 18:1 TO 20:1
THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENT...SO GOOD "FLUFF FACTOR" TO PILE UP THE
SNOW (THOUGH PERHAPS HAVING LESS OVERALL IMPACT THAN CORRESPONDING
AMTS OF HEAVY/WET SNOW WOULD). COUNTERING THE SNOW WILL BE DRY PBL
CONDITIONS...SO WE/LL NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONG SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION GRADIENT SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

STEADY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY
AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN TIME FOR THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. MAXIMIZED UVV OCCURS 15-20Z MONDAY TIME
FRAME...AND COULD SEE 1+"/HR SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
S-CENTRAL VERMONT DURING THAT TIME FRAME. LOOKING FOR SNOWFALL
AMTS TO RANGE FROM 8-10" FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN
VERMONT 4-8" ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACKS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO
SRN CALEDONIA COUNTY...AND THEN 2-4" ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR ALL OF CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL
VERMONT 09Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FURTHER NORTH...PERHAPS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS THE EVENT APPROACHES AND MESOSCALE DETAILS AND LOW TRACK
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. GIVEN PROJECTED LOW SNOW DENSITY, THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE TO TRAVEL THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY WITH
SNOWCOVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW. WORST OF
THE TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN VERMONT.

ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW DEPARTS THROUGH THE
GULF OF MAINE MONDAY EVENING. SHOULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS (SERN VT)...AND FALLING GENERALLY BELOW ZERO MONDAY
NIGHT WITH FRESH SNOWPACK AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE
THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT AREA WITH DRY COLD WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY. A WEAK LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING OUR
FIRST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. ON WEDNESDAY A STRONGER LOW CROSSES THE AREA...SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS. EXTENDED FORECAST WILL GENERALLY BE ACTIVE WITH
SEVERAL WEAK LOWS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AND
COLD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SOME NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS WEDNESDAY WHEN LOW WILL BE
CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR SKC CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. A BKN/OVC VFR STRATUS DECK DEPICTED ON EVENING INFRARED
SATELLITE THEN SPREADS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. AS MOISTURE DEPTH
DECREASES WITH EASTWARD EXTENT, ANY DEVELOPING 5-7 SM VISIBILITY
-SHSN AFTER 05Z WILL BE LIMITED TO MSS AND SLK, ENDING BY 10-12Z.
STRATUS DECK WILL THIN INTO SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
NORTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS (EXCEPTION AT MPV WHERE
NORTH WINDS 10 KTS AND GUSTING TO 20 KTS AT TIMES THIS EVENING).

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z MONDAY-09Z MONDAY...VFR.

09Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR SNOWFALL AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. GREATEST IMPACT LIKELY AT MPV/RUT WITH
MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

12Z THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR VTZ008>012-018-019.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010249
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
949 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. OTHERWISE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND
PASS JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
BEGINNING IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...AND ANY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 948 PM EST SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE PRETTY MUCH BEEN A
MISH-MASH OF SORTS THIS EVENING WITH RATHER WIDE VARIATION OVER
SMALL DISTANCES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT, AS IS CONSISTENT WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DECOUPLING WIND CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE THOUGH AS FOG PRODUCT SHOWS LAYER OF OVERCAST
STRATUS NOW MOVING INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS BEING REPORTED IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS UNDER THIS OVERCAST. STILL THINK HOLDING OFF ON LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE ADIRONDACKS MAKES SENSE AS MOISTURE
CONTENT OF THE AIR IS TOO DRY. ONLY CHANGE THAT I`VE MADE TO THE
GOING FORECAST WAS TO TRY TO BETTER SHOW NEAR-TERM TREND IN
TEMPERATURES. LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED IN AREAS
WHERE PERSISTENT STRATUS HAS MOVED IN, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
INTO VERMONT BY A FEW MORE DEGREES.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 314 PM SATURDAY FOLLOWS...

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AREAWIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM SERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NEW YORK.
WE/VE SEEN WIND CHILL VALUES OF -10F TO -20F THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
(WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO)...BUT WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW NW
WINDS TO QUICKLY ABATE NEAR/JUST AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. A
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT
SEWD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL SWLY
FLOW WILL BRING STRATUS IN FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH A
CHANCE OF A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS 03-09Z. GIVEN DRY
PBL CONDITIONS (2-M DEWPOINTS -10F TO -15F)...IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY FLURRIES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...CLOSER TO AVAILABLE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM LAKE ONTARIO. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING AS WELL...SO UPPER SUPPORT FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME STRATUS/ALTOSTRATUS APPEARS LIMITED IN
VERMONT. AS A CONSEQUENCE...BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN VERMONT WITH LATER ARRIVAL/LESSER CLOUD COVER. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM -5F TO -15F IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO
+5F TO -5F MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. IN AREAS SEEING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS...SOME OF THESE LOWS WILL OCCUR BY MIDNIGHT WITH NEAR
STEADY TEMPERATURES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

ON SUNDAY...WILL SEE PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AS SFC RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM NWRN ONTARIO SEWD INTO NRN NY AND VERMONT. LOOKING FOR LIGHT
N-NW WINDS AND SOME RENEWED LOW-LEVEL CAA TO OFFSET NORMAL DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TRENDS. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY
BUT CONTINUING BELOW AVERAGE FOR FEBRUARY 1ST...WITH AFTN VALUES
GENERALLY RANGING FROM +8 TO +15F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 314 PM EST SATURDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT BEGINS TRANQUIL WITH
INCREASING MID-UPPER CLOUDS THRU MIDNIGHT AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
HOLDS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. NO PROBLEM FOR ANY
TRAVEL PLANS DURING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG
STRONG SFC-850MB QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY EWD ACROSS PA SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS POSITIVE
TILT...BUT SHOULD HELP FOCUS DOWNSTREAM AREA OF 850-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING AND STRONG UPWARD MOTION TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW TRACK. THE 12Z NWP GUIDANCE SUITE HAS
CONTINUED THE NWD SHIFT OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED QPF
VALUES...WITH THE 12Z GFS GENERALLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
POTENTIAL SNOWFALL IN OUR REGION (0.5-0.7" LIQUID EQUIV). STRONG
850-700MB WAA...A PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MONDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...AND SATURATION IN A 7000FT DEEP DENDRITE
GROWTH LAYER (PER BOTH NAM/GFS POINT SOUNDINGS) SUGGESTS OPTIMIZED
DYNAMICS AND SNOW MICROPHYSICS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN MONDAY. GIVEN COLD COLUMN AND
DENDRITE GROWTH...LOOKING AT SNOW RATIOS POTENTIALLY 18:1 TO 20:1
THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENT...SO GOOD "FLUFF FACTOR" TO PILE UP THE
SNOW (THOUGH PERHAPS HAVING LESS OVERALL IMPACT THAN CORRESPONDING
AMTS OF HEAVY/WET SNOW WOULD). COUNTERING THE SNOW WILL BE DRY PBL
CONDITIONS...SO WE/LL NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONG SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION GRADIENT SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

STEADY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY
AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN TIME FOR THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. MAXIMIZED UVV OCCURS 15-20Z MONDAY TIME
FRAME...AND COULD SEE 1+"/HR SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
S-CENTRAL VERMONT DURING THAT TIME FRAME. LOOKING FOR SNOWFALL
AMTS TO RANGE FROM 8-10" FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN
VERMONT 4-8" ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACKS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO
SRN CALEDONIA COUNTY...AND THEN 2-4" ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR ALL OF CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL
VERMONT 09Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FURTHER NORTH...PERHAPS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS THE EVENT APPROACHES AND MESOSCALE DETAILS AND LOW TRACK
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. GIVEN PROJECTED LOW SNOW DENSITY, THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE TO TRAVEL THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY WITH
SNOWCOVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW. WORST OF
THE TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN VERMONT.

ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW DEPARTS THROUGH THE
GULF OF MAINE MONDAY EVENING. SHOULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS (SERN VT)...AND FALLING GENERALLY BELOW ZERO MONDAY
NIGHT WITH FRESH SNOWPACK AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE
THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT AREA WITH DRY COLD WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY. A WEAK LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING OUR
FIRST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. ON WEDNESDAY A STRONGER LOW CROSSES THE AREA...SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS. EXTENDED FORECAST WILL GENERALLY BE ACTIVE WITH
SEVERAL WEAK LOWS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AND
COLD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SOME NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS WEDNESDAY WHEN LOW WILL BE
CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR SKC CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. A BKN/OVC VFR STRATUS DECK DEPICTED ON EVENING INFRARED
SATELLITE THEN SPREADS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. AS MOISTURE DEPTH
DECREASES WITH EASTWARD EXTENT, ANY DEVELOPING 5-7 SM VISIBILITY
-SHSN AFTER 05Z WILL BE LIMITED TO MSS AND SLK, ENDING BY 10-12Z.
STRATUS DECK WILL THIN INTO SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
NORTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS (EXCEPTION AT MPV WHERE
NORTH WINDS 10 KTS AND GUSTING TO 20 KTS AT TIMES THIS EVENING).

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z MONDAY-09Z MONDAY...VFR.

09Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR SNOWFALL AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. GREATEST IMPACT LIKELY AT MPV/RUT WITH
MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

12Z THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR VTZ008>012-018-019.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010249
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
949 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. OTHERWISE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND
PASS JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
BEGINNING IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...AND ANY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 948 PM EST SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE PRETTY MUCH BEEN A
MISH-MASH OF SORTS THIS EVENING WITH RATHER WIDE VARIATION OVER
SMALL DISTANCES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT, AS IS CONSISTENT WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DECOUPLING WIND CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE THOUGH AS FOG PRODUCT SHOWS LAYER OF OVERCAST
STRATUS NOW MOVING INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS BEING REPORTED IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS UNDER THIS OVERCAST. STILL THINK HOLDING OFF ON LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE ADIRONDACKS MAKES SENSE AS MOISTURE
CONTENT OF THE AIR IS TOO DRY. ONLY CHANGE THAT I`VE MADE TO THE
GOING FORECAST WAS TO TRY TO BETTER SHOW NEAR-TERM TREND IN
TEMPERATURES. LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED IN AREAS
WHERE PERSISTENT STRATUS HAS MOVED IN, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
INTO VERMONT BY A FEW MORE DEGREES.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 314 PM SATURDAY FOLLOWS...

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AREAWIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM SERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NEW YORK.
WE/VE SEEN WIND CHILL VALUES OF -10F TO -20F THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
(WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO)...BUT WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW NW
WINDS TO QUICKLY ABATE NEAR/JUST AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. A
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT
SEWD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL SWLY
FLOW WILL BRING STRATUS IN FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH A
CHANCE OF A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS 03-09Z. GIVEN DRY
PBL CONDITIONS (2-M DEWPOINTS -10F TO -15F)...IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY FLURRIES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...CLOSER TO AVAILABLE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM LAKE ONTARIO. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING AS WELL...SO UPPER SUPPORT FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME STRATUS/ALTOSTRATUS APPEARS LIMITED IN
VERMONT. AS A CONSEQUENCE...BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN VERMONT WITH LATER ARRIVAL/LESSER CLOUD COVER. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM -5F TO -15F IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO
+5F TO -5F MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. IN AREAS SEEING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS...SOME OF THESE LOWS WILL OCCUR BY MIDNIGHT WITH NEAR
STEADY TEMPERATURES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

ON SUNDAY...WILL SEE PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AS SFC RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM NWRN ONTARIO SEWD INTO NRN NY AND VERMONT. LOOKING FOR LIGHT
N-NW WINDS AND SOME RENEWED LOW-LEVEL CAA TO OFFSET NORMAL DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TRENDS. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY
BUT CONTINUING BELOW AVERAGE FOR FEBRUARY 1ST...WITH AFTN VALUES
GENERALLY RANGING FROM +8 TO +15F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 314 PM EST SATURDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT BEGINS TRANQUIL WITH
INCREASING MID-UPPER CLOUDS THRU MIDNIGHT AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
HOLDS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. NO PROBLEM FOR ANY
TRAVEL PLANS DURING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG
STRONG SFC-850MB QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY EWD ACROSS PA SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS POSITIVE
TILT...BUT SHOULD HELP FOCUS DOWNSTREAM AREA OF 850-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING AND STRONG UPWARD MOTION TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW TRACK. THE 12Z NWP GUIDANCE SUITE HAS
CONTINUED THE NWD SHIFT OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED QPF
VALUES...WITH THE 12Z GFS GENERALLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
POTENTIAL SNOWFALL IN OUR REGION (0.5-0.7" LIQUID EQUIV). STRONG
850-700MB WAA...A PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MONDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...AND SATURATION IN A 7000FT DEEP DENDRITE
GROWTH LAYER (PER BOTH NAM/GFS POINT SOUNDINGS) SUGGESTS OPTIMIZED
DYNAMICS AND SNOW MICROPHYSICS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN MONDAY. GIVEN COLD COLUMN AND
DENDRITE GROWTH...LOOKING AT SNOW RATIOS POTENTIALLY 18:1 TO 20:1
THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENT...SO GOOD "FLUFF FACTOR" TO PILE UP THE
SNOW (THOUGH PERHAPS HAVING LESS OVERALL IMPACT THAN CORRESPONDING
AMTS OF HEAVY/WET SNOW WOULD). COUNTERING THE SNOW WILL BE DRY PBL
CONDITIONS...SO WE/LL NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONG SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION GRADIENT SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

STEADY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY
AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN TIME FOR THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. MAXIMIZED UVV OCCURS 15-20Z MONDAY TIME
FRAME...AND COULD SEE 1+"/HR SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
S-CENTRAL VERMONT DURING THAT TIME FRAME. LOOKING FOR SNOWFALL
AMTS TO RANGE FROM 8-10" FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN
VERMONT 4-8" ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACKS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO
SRN CALEDONIA COUNTY...AND THEN 2-4" ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR ALL OF CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL
VERMONT 09Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FURTHER NORTH...PERHAPS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS THE EVENT APPROACHES AND MESOSCALE DETAILS AND LOW TRACK
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. GIVEN PROJECTED LOW SNOW DENSITY, THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE TO TRAVEL THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY WITH
SNOWCOVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW. WORST OF
THE TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN VERMONT.

ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW DEPARTS THROUGH THE
GULF OF MAINE MONDAY EVENING. SHOULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS (SERN VT)...AND FALLING GENERALLY BELOW ZERO MONDAY
NIGHT WITH FRESH SNOWPACK AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE
THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT AREA WITH DRY COLD WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY. A WEAK LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING OUR
FIRST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. ON WEDNESDAY A STRONGER LOW CROSSES THE AREA...SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS. EXTENDED FORECAST WILL GENERALLY BE ACTIVE WITH
SEVERAL WEAK LOWS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AND
COLD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SOME NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS WEDNESDAY WHEN LOW WILL BE
CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR SKC CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. A BKN/OVC VFR STRATUS DECK DEPICTED ON EVENING INFRARED
SATELLITE THEN SPREADS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. AS MOISTURE DEPTH
DECREASES WITH EASTWARD EXTENT, ANY DEVELOPING 5-7 SM VISIBILITY
-SHSN AFTER 05Z WILL BE LIMITED TO MSS AND SLK, ENDING BY 10-12Z.
STRATUS DECK WILL THIN INTO SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
NORTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS (EXCEPTION AT MPV WHERE
NORTH WINDS 10 KTS AND GUSTING TO 20 KTS AT TIMES THIS EVENING).

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z MONDAY-09Z MONDAY...VFR.

09Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR SNOWFALL AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. GREATEST IMPACT LIKELY AT MPV/RUT WITH
MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

12Z THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR VTZ008>012-018-019.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010249
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
949 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. OTHERWISE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND
PASS JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
BEGINNING IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...AND ANY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 948 PM EST SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE PRETTY MUCH BEEN A
MISH-MASH OF SORTS THIS EVENING WITH RATHER WIDE VARIATION OVER
SMALL DISTANCES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT, AS IS CONSISTENT WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DECOUPLING WIND CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE THOUGH AS FOG PRODUCT SHOWS LAYER OF OVERCAST
STRATUS NOW MOVING INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS BEING REPORTED IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS UNDER THIS OVERCAST. STILL THINK HOLDING OFF ON LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE ADIRONDACKS MAKES SENSE AS MOISTURE
CONTENT OF THE AIR IS TOO DRY. ONLY CHANGE THAT I`VE MADE TO THE
GOING FORECAST WAS TO TRY TO BETTER SHOW NEAR-TERM TREND IN
TEMPERATURES. LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED IN AREAS
WHERE PERSISTENT STRATUS HAS MOVED IN, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
INTO VERMONT BY A FEW MORE DEGREES.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 314 PM SATURDAY FOLLOWS...

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AREAWIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM SERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NEW YORK.
WE/VE SEEN WIND CHILL VALUES OF -10F TO -20F THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
(WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO)...BUT WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW NW
WINDS TO QUICKLY ABATE NEAR/JUST AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. A
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT
SEWD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL SWLY
FLOW WILL BRING STRATUS IN FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH A
CHANCE OF A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS 03-09Z. GIVEN DRY
PBL CONDITIONS (2-M DEWPOINTS -10F TO -15F)...IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY FLURRIES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...CLOSER TO AVAILABLE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM LAKE ONTARIO. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING AS WELL...SO UPPER SUPPORT FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME STRATUS/ALTOSTRATUS APPEARS LIMITED IN
VERMONT. AS A CONSEQUENCE...BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN VERMONT WITH LATER ARRIVAL/LESSER CLOUD COVER. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM -5F TO -15F IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO
+5F TO -5F MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. IN AREAS SEEING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS...SOME OF THESE LOWS WILL OCCUR BY MIDNIGHT WITH NEAR
STEADY TEMPERATURES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

ON SUNDAY...WILL SEE PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AS SFC RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM NWRN ONTARIO SEWD INTO NRN NY AND VERMONT. LOOKING FOR LIGHT
N-NW WINDS AND SOME RENEWED LOW-LEVEL CAA TO OFFSET NORMAL DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TRENDS. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY
BUT CONTINUING BELOW AVERAGE FOR FEBRUARY 1ST...WITH AFTN VALUES
GENERALLY RANGING FROM +8 TO +15F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 314 PM EST SATURDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT BEGINS TRANQUIL WITH
INCREASING MID-UPPER CLOUDS THRU MIDNIGHT AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
HOLDS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. NO PROBLEM FOR ANY
TRAVEL PLANS DURING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG
STRONG SFC-850MB QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY EWD ACROSS PA SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS POSITIVE
TILT...BUT SHOULD HELP FOCUS DOWNSTREAM AREA OF 850-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING AND STRONG UPWARD MOTION TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW TRACK. THE 12Z NWP GUIDANCE SUITE HAS
CONTINUED THE NWD SHIFT OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED QPF
VALUES...WITH THE 12Z GFS GENERALLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
POTENTIAL SNOWFALL IN OUR REGION (0.5-0.7" LIQUID EQUIV). STRONG
850-700MB WAA...A PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MONDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...AND SATURATION IN A 7000FT DEEP DENDRITE
GROWTH LAYER (PER BOTH NAM/GFS POINT SOUNDINGS) SUGGESTS OPTIMIZED
DYNAMICS AND SNOW MICROPHYSICS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN MONDAY. GIVEN COLD COLUMN AND
DENDRITE GROWTH...LOOKING AT SNOW RATIOS POTENTIALLY 18:1 TO 20:1
THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENT...SO GOOD "FLUFF FACTOR" TO PILE UP THE
SNOW (THOUGH PERHAPS HAVING LESS OVERALL IMPACT THAN CORRESPONDING
AMTS OF HEAVY/WET SNOW WOULD). COUNTERING THE SNOW WILL BE DRY PBL
CONDITIONS...SO WE/LL NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONG SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION GRADIENT SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

STEADY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY
AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN TIME FOR THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. MAXIMIZED UVV OCCURS 15-20Z MONDAY TIME
FRAME...AND COULD SEE 1+"/HR SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
S-CENTRAL VERMONT DURING THAT TIME FRAME. LOOKING FOR SNOWFALL
AMTS TO RANGE FROM 8-10" FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN
VERMONT 4-8" ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACKS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO
SRN CALEDONIA COUNTY...AND THEN 2-4" ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR ALL OF CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL
VERMONT 09Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FURTHER NORTH...PERHAPS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS THE EVENT APPROACHES AND MESOSCALE DETAILS AND LOW TRACK
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. GIVEN PROJECTED LOW SNOW DENSITY, THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE TO TRAVEL THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY WITH
SNOWCOVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW. WORST OF
THE TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN VERMONT.

ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW DEPARTS THROUGH THE
GULF OF MAINE MONDAY EVENING. SHOULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS (SERN VT)...AND FALLING GENERALLY BELOW ZERO MONDAY
NIGHT WITH FRESH SNOWPACK AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE
THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT AREA WITH DRY COLD WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY. A WEAK LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING OUR
FIRST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. ON WEDNESDAY A STRONGER LOW CROSSES THE AREA...SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS. EXTENDED FORECAST WILL GENERALLY BE ACTIVE WITH
SEVERAL WEAK LOWS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AND
COLD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SOME NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS WEDNESDAY WHEN LOW WILL BE
CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR SKC CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. A BKN/OVC VFR STRATUS DECK DEPICTED ON EVENING INFRARED
SATELLITE THEN SPREADS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. AS MOISTURE DEPTH
DECREASES WITH EASTWARD EXTENT, ANY DEVELOPING 5-7 SM VISIBILITY
-SHSN AFTER 05Z WILL BE LIMITED TO MSS AND SLK, ENDING BY 10-12Z.
STRATUS DECK WILL THIN INTO SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
NORTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS (EXCEPTION AT MPV WHERE
NORTH WINDS 10 KTS AND GUSTING TO 20 KTS AT TIMES THIS EVENING).

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z MONDAY-09Z MONDAY...VFR.

09Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR SNOWFALL AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. GREATEST IMPACT LIKELY AT MPV/RUT WITH
MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

12Z THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR VTZ008>012-018-019.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010249
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
949 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. OTHERWISE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND
PASS JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
BEGINNING IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...AND ANY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 948 PM EST SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE PRETTY MUCH BEEN A
MISH-MASH OF SORTS THIS EVENING WITH RATHER WIDE VARIATION OVER
SMALL DISTANCES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS VERMONT, AS IS CONSISTENT WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DECOUPLING WIND CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE THOUGH AS FOG PRODUCT SHOWS LAYER OF OVERCAST
STRATUS NOW MOVING INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS BEING REPORTED IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS UNDER THIS OVERCAST. STILL THINK HOLDING OFF ON LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE ADIRONDACKS MAKES SENSE AS MOISTURE
CONTENT OF THE AIR IS TOO DRY. ONLY CHANGE THAT I`VE MADE TO THE
GOING FORECAST WAS TO TRY TO BETTER SHOW NEAR-TERM TREND IN
TEMPERATURES. LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED IN AREAS
WHERE PERSISTENT STRATUS HAS MOVED IN, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
INTO VERMONT BY A FEW MORE DEGREES.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 314 PM SATURDAY FOLLOWS...

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AREAWIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM SERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NEW YORK.
WE/VE SEEN WIND CHILL VALUES OF -10F TO -20F THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
(WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO)...BUT WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW NW
WINDS TO QUICKLY ABATE NEAR/JUST AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. A
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT
SEWD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL SWLY
FLOW WILL BRING STRATUS IN FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH A
CHANCE OF A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS 03-09Z. GIVEN DRY
PBL CONDITIONS (2-M DEWPOINTS -10F TO -15F)...IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY FLURRIES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...CLOSER TO AVAILABLE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM LAKE ONTARIO. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING AS WELL...SO UPPER SUPPORT FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME STRATUS/ALTOSTRATUS APPEARS LIMITED IN
VERMONT. AS A CONSEQUENCE...BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN VERMONT WITH LATER ARRIVAL/LESSER CLOUD COVER. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM -5F TO -15F IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO
+5F TO -5F MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. IN AREAS SEEING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS...SOME OF THESE LOWS WILL OCCUR BY MIDNIGHT WITH NEAR
STEADY TEMPERATURES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

ON SUNDAY...WILL SEE PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AS SFC RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM NWRN ONTARIO SEWD INTO NRN NY AND VERMONT. LOOKING FOR LIGHT
N-NW WINDS AND SOME RENEWED LOW-LEVEL CAA TO OFFSET NORMAL DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TRENDS. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY
BUT CONTINUING BELOW AVERAGE FOR FEBRUARY 1ST...WITH AFTN VALUES
GENERALLY RANGING FROM +8 TO +15F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 314 PM EST SATURDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT BEGINS TRANQUIL WITH
INCREASING MID-UPPER CLOUDS THRU MIDNIGHT AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
HOLDS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. NO PROBLEM FOR ANY
TRAVEL PLANS DURING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG
STRONG SFC-850MB QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY EWD ACROSS PA SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS POSITIVE
TILT...BUT SHOULD HELP FOCUS DOWNSTREAM AREA OF 850-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING AND STRONG UPWARD MOTION TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW TRACK. THE 12Z NWP GUIDANCE SUITE HAS
CONTINUED THE NWD SHIFT OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED QPF
VALUES...WITH THE 12Z GFS GENERALLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
POTENTIAL SNOWFALL IN OUR REGION (0.5-0.7" LIQUID EQUIV). STRONG
850-700MB WAA...A PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MONDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...AND SATURATION IN A 7000FT DEEP DENDRITE
GROWTH LAYER (PER BOTH NAM/GFS POINT SOUNDINGS) SUGGESTS OPTIMIZED
DYNAMICS AND SNOW MICROPHYSICS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN MONDAY. GIVEN COLD COLUMN AND
DENDRITE GROWTH...LOOKING AT SNOW RATIOS POTENTIALLY 18:1 TO 20:1
THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENT...SO GOOD "FLUFF FACTOR" TO PILE UP THE
SNOW (THOUGH PERHAPS HAVING LESS OVERALL IMPACT THAN CORRESPONDING
AMTS OF HEAVY/WET SNOW WOULD). COUNTERING THE SNOW WILL BE DRY PBL
CONDITIONS...SO WE/LL NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONG SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION GRADIENT SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

STEADY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY
AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN TIME FOR THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. MAXIMIZED UVV OCCURS 15-20Z MONDAY TIME
FRAME...AND COULD SEE 1+"/HR SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
S-CENTRAL VERMONT DURING THAT TIME FRAME. LOOKING FOR SNOWFALL
AMTS TO RANGE FROM 8-10" FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN
VERMONT 4-8" ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACKS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO
SRN CALEDONIA COUNTY...AND THEN 2-4" ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR ALL OF CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL
VERMONT 09Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FURTHER NORTH...PERHAPS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS THE EVENT APPROACHES AND MESOSCALE DETAILS AND LOW TRACK
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. GIVEN PROJECTED LOW SNOW DENSITY, THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE TO TRAVEL THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY WITH
SNOWCOVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW. WORST OF
THE TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN VERMONT.

ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW DEPARTS THROUGH THE
GULF OF MAINE MONDAY EVENING. SHOULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS (SERN VT)...AND FALLING GENERALLY BELOW ZERO MONDAY
NIGHT WITH FRESH SNOWPACK AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE
THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT AREA WITH DRY COLD WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY. A WEAK LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING OUR
FIRST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. ON WEDNESDAY A STRONGER LOW CROSSES THE AREA...SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS. EXTENDED FORECAST WILL GENERALLY BE ACTIVE WITH
SEVERAL WEAK LOWS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AND
COLD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SOME NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS WEDNESDAY WHEN LOW WILL BE
CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR SKC CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. A BKN/OVC VFR STRATUS DECK DEPICTED ON EVENING INFRARED
SATELLITE THEN SPREADS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. AS MOISTURE DEPTH
DECREASES WITH EASTWARD EXTENT, ANY DEVELOPING 5-7 SM VISIBILITY
-SHSN AFTER 05Z WILL BE LIMITED TO MSS AND SLK, ENDING BY 10-12Z.
STRATUS DECK WILL THIN INTO SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
NORTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS (EXCEPTION AT MPV WHERE
NORTH WINDS 10 KTS AND GUSTING TO 20 KTS AT TIMES THIS EVENING).

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z MONDAY-09Z MONDAY...VFR.

09Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR SNOWFALL AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. GREATEST IMPACT LIKELY AT MPV/RUT WITH
MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

12Z THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR VTZ008>012-018-019.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KALY 010222
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
922 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. IT
WILL NOT BE AS COLD...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 922 PM EST...ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...AS WELL AS IN THE TACONICS...GLENS FALLS/LAKE GEORGE
AREAS...AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ADVANCING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE CROSSING OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE AND DRY LOW LEVELS...LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR. CANNOT
RULE OUT A SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN
AREAS...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

IN AREAS THAT ARE STILL CLEAR...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS THANKS TO DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER...ONCE CLOUDS ARRIVE...TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF AND POSSIBLY
EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES. MIN TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE GLENS FALLS AREA...WHERE TEMPS ARE ALREADY
-4 DEGREES.

TOMORROW...THE MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL NEAR THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ WESTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.  A 1030 HPA OR SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN
FROM SE OF JAMES BAY.  THE SKIES MAY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY...AND -8C TO -10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  MAX
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY
10 TO 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U20S FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A VIGOROUS
NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.


ARCTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ON MONDAY. THERE
HAS BEEN GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT HEADS OFFSHORE. THE GFS NOW HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE COAST
ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. THE GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSIVE WITH AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT.

SNOW RATIOS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED
TO START OUT HIGH THEN TRENDED TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...WHILE RATIOS
WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY AS YOU
HEAD NORTHWARD. THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILISTIC FOR SNOW RATIOS INDICATE
60+% FOR ALBANY AND 64+% FOR GLENS FALLS TO HAVE RATIOS OF 15:1 OR
GREATER.

ALL THIS LEADS TO CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING AND
TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

BASED ON THE FORECASTED ONSET OF SNOW HAVE MADE THE START TIME FOR
THE WARNING 9 PM SUNDAY AND THE WATCH AT MIDNIGHT. BOTH RUN
THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY.

THE HEAVIEST MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM ABOUT 09Z-15Z
MONDAY...IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST AT 60-70 KNOTS AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF LATE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALONG
WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DROP TO ZERO OR BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO AND COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAY NEED
WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND QUICKLY SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER
COLD DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS...15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IS
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE
LOW 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THANKS TO A MOISTURE STARVED
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. W-NW WINDS AT
5-10 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH AND BE LIGHT AND NEARLY CALM
FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT...BKN
CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES ON SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. LIGHT
N-NE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 5 KTS FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ICE THICKEN ON
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ALBANY SEASON SNOWFALL TOTAL THROUGH JANUARY 30TH STANDS AT 40 INCHES
WHICH IS 6.4 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 010222
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
922 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. IT
WILL NOT BE AS COLD...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 922 PM EST...ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...AS WELL AS IN THE TACONICS...GLENS FALLS/LAKE GEORGE
AREAS...AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ADVANCING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE CROSSING OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE AND DRY LOW LEVELS...LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR. CANNOT
RULE OUT A SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN
AREAS...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

IN AREAS THAT ARE STILL CLEAR...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS THANKS TO DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER...ONCE CLOUDS ARRIVE...TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF AND POSSIBLY
EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES. MIN TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE GLENS FALLS AREA...WHERE TEMPS ARE ALREADY
-4 DEGREES.

TOMORROW...THE MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL NEAR THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ WESTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.  A 1030 HPA OR SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN
FROM SE OF JAMES BAY.  THE SKIES MAY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY...AND -8C TO -10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  MAX
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY
10 TO 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U20S FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A VIGOROUS
NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.


ARCTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ON MONDAY. THERE
HAS BEEN GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT HEADS OFFSHORE. THE GFS NOW HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE COAST
ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. THE GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSIVE WITH AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT.

SNOW RATIOS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED
TO START OUT HIGH THEN TRENDED TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...WHILE RATIOS
WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY AS YOU
HEAD NORTHWARD. THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILISTIC FOR SNOW RATIOS INDICATE
60+% FOR ALBANY AND 64+% FOR GLENS FALLS TO HAVE RATIOS OF 15:1 OR
GREATER.

ALL THIS LEADS TO CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING AND
TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

BASED ON THE FORECASTED ONSET OF SNOW HAVE MADE THE START TIME FOR
THE WARNING 9 PM SUNDAY AND THE WATCH AT MIDNIGHT. BOTH RUN
THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY.

THE HEAVIEST MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM ABOUT 09Z-15Z
MONDAY...IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST AT 60-70 KNOTS AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF LATE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALONG
WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DROP TO ZERO OR BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO AND COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAY NEED
WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND QUICKLY SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER
COLD DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS...15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IS
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE
LOW 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THANKS TO A MOISTURE STARVED
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. W-NW WINDS AT
5-10 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH AND BE LIGHT AND NEARLY CALM
FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT...BKN
CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES ON SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. LIGHT
N-NE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 5 KTS FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ICE THICKEN ON
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ALBANY SEASON SNOWFALL TOTAL THROUGH JANUARY 30TH STANDS AT 40 INCHES
WHICH IS 6.4 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 010222
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
922 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. IT
WILL NOT BE AS COLD...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 922 PM EST...ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...AS WELL AS IN THE TACONICS...GLENS FALLS/LAKE GEORGE
AREAS...AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ADVANCING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE CROSSING OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE AND DRY LOW LEVELS...LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR. CANNOT
RULE OUT A SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN
AREAS...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

IN AREAS THAT ARE STILL CLEAR...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS THANKS TO DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER...ONCE CLOUDS ARRIVE...TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF AND POSSIBLY
EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES. MIN TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE GLENS FALLS AREA...WHERE TEMPS ARE ALREADY
-4 DEGREES.

TOMORROW...THE MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL NEAR THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ WESTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.  A 1030 HPA OR SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN
FROM SE OF JAMES BAY.  THE SKIES MAY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY...AND -8C TO -10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  MAX
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY
10 TO 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U20S FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A VIGOROUS
NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.


ARCTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ON MONDAY. THERE
HAS BEEN GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT HEADS OFFSHORE. THE GFS NOW HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE COAST
ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. THE GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSIVE WITH AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT.

SNOW RATIOS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED
TO START OUT HIGH THEN TRENDED TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...WHILE RATIOS
WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY AS YOU
HEAD NORTHWARD. THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILISTIC FOR SNOW RATIOS INDICATE
60+% FOR ALBANY AND 64+% FOR GLENS FALLS TO HAVE RATIOS OF 15:1 OR
GREATER.

ALL THIS LEADS TO CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING AND
TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

BASED ON THE FORECASTED ONSET OF SNOW HAVE MADE THE START TIME FOR
THE WARNING 9 PM SUNDAY AND THE WATCH AT MIDNIGHT. BOTH RUN
THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY.

THE HEAVIEST MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM ABOUT 09Z-15Z
MONDAY...IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST AT 60-70 KNOTS AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF LATE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALONG
WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DROP TO ZERO OR BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO AND COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAY NEED
WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND QUICKLY SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER
COLD DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS...15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IS
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE
LOW 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THANKS TO A MOISTURE STARVED
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. W-NW WINDS AT
5-10 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH AND BE LIGHT AND NEARLY CALM
FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT...BKN
CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES ON SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. LIGHT
N-NE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 5 KTS FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ICE THICKEN ON
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ALBANY SEASON SNOWFALL TOTAL THROUGH JANUARY 30TH STANDS AT 40 INCHES
WHICH IS 6.4 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 010222
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
922 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. IT
WILL NOT BE AS COLD...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 922 PM EST...ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...AS WELL AS IN THE TACONICS...GLENS FALLS/LAKE GEORGE
AREAS...AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ADVANCING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND INTO THE
CAPITAL REGION. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE CROSSING OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE AND DRY LOW LEVELS...LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR. CANNOT
RULE OUT A SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN
AREAS...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

IN AREAS THAT ARE STILL CLEAR...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS THANKS TO DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER...ONCE CLOUDS ARRIVE...TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF AND POSSIBLY
EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES. MIN TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE GLENS FALLS AREA...WHERE TEMPS ARE ALREADY
-4 DEGREES.

TOMORROW...THE MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL NEAR THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ WESTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.  A 1030 HPA OR SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN
FROM SE OF JAMES BAY.  THE SKIES MAY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY...AND -8C TO -10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  MAX
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY
10 TO 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U20S FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A VIGOROUS
NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.


ARCTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ON MONDAY. THERE
HAS BEEN GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT HEADS OFFSHORE. THE GFS NOW HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE COAST
ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. THE GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSIVE WITH AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT.

SNOW RATIOS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED
TO START OUT HIGH THEN TRENDED TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...WHILE RATIOS
WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY AS YOU
HEAD NORTHWARD. THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILISTIC FOR SNOW RATIOS INDICATE
60+% FOR ALBANY AND 64+% FOR GLENS FALLS TO HAVE RATIOS OF 15:1 OR
GREATER.

ALL THIS LEADS TO CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING AND
TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

BASED ON THE FORECASTED ONSET OF SNOW HAVE MADE THE START TIME FOR
THE WARNING 9 PM SUNDAY AND THE WATCH AT MIDNIGHT. BOTH RUN
THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY.

THE HEAVIEST MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM ABOUT 09Z-15Z
MONDAY...IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST AT 60-70 KNOTS AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF LATE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALONG
WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DROP TO ZERO OR BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO AND COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAY NEED
WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND QUICKLY SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER
COLD DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS...15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IS
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE
LOW 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THANKS TO A MOISTURE STARVED
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. W-NW WINDS AT
5-10 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH AND BE LIGHT AND NEARLY CALM
FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT...BKN
CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES ON SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. LIGHT
N-NE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 5 KTS FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ICE THICKEN ON
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ALBANY SEASON SNOWFALL TOTAL THROUGH JANUARY 30TH STANDS AT 40 INCHES
WHICH IS 6.4 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 312351
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
651 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. IT
WILL NOT BE AS COLD...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 651 PM EST...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER MOHAWK
VALLEY...WHERE A BATCH OF LOWER CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO THE AREA
FROM CENTRAL NY. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE CROSSING OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE AND DRY LOW LEVELS...LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR. CANNOT
RULE OUT A SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN
AREAS...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

TEMPS WILL DROP OFF THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF AND POSSIBLY EVEN RISE LATE
TONIGHT...AS CLOUDS INCREASE DUE TO THE PASSING BOUNDARY. MIN
TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME BELOW
ZERO READINGS IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

TOMORROW...THE MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL NEAR THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ WESTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.  A 1030 HPA OR SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN
FROM SE OF JAMES BAY.  THE SKIES MAY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY...AND -8C TO -10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  MAX
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY
10 TO 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U20S FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A VIGOROUS
NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.


ARCTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ON MONDAY. THERE
HAS BEEN GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT HEADS OFFSHORE. THE GFS NOW HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE COAST
ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. THE GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSIVE WITH AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT.

SNOW RATIOS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED
TO START OUT HIGH THEN TRENDED TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...WHILE RATIOS
WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY AS YOU
HEAD NORTHWARD. THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILISTIC FOR SNOW RATIOS INDICATE
60+% FOR ALBANY AND 64+% FOR GLENS FALLS TO HAVE RATIOS OF 15:1 OR
GREATER.

ALL THIS LEADS TO CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING AND
TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

BASED ON THE FORECASTED ONSET OF SNOW HAVE MADE THE START TIME FOR
THE WARNING 9 PM SUNDAY AND THE WATCH AT MIDNIGHT. BOTH RUN
THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY.

THE HEAVIEST MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM ABOUT 09Z-15Z
MONDAY...IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST AT 60-70 KNOTS AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF LATE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALONG
WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DROP TO ZERO OR BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO AND COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAY NEED
WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND QUICKLY SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER
COLD DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS...15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IS
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE
LOW 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THANKS TO A MOISTURE STARVED
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. W-NW WINDS AT
5-10 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH AND BE LIGHT AND NEARLY CALM
FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT...BKN
CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES ON SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. LIGHT
N-NE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 5 KTS FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ICE THICKEN ON
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ALBANY SEASON SNOWFALL TOTAL THROUGH JANUARY 30TH STANDS AT 40 INCHES
WHICH IS 6.4 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 312351
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
651 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. IT
WILL NOT BE AS COLD...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 651 PM EST...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER MOHAWK
VALLEY...WHERE A BATCH OF LOWER CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO THE AREA
FROM CENTRAL NY. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE CROSSING OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE AND DRY LOW LEVELS...LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR. CANNOT
RULE OUT A SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN
AREAS...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

TEMPS WILL DROP OFF THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF AND POSSIBLY EVEN RISE LATE
TONIGHT...AS CLOUDS INCREASE DUE TO THE PASSING BOUNDARY. MIN
TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME BELOW
ZERO READINGS IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

TOMORROW...THE MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL NEAR THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ WESTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.  A 1030 HPA OR SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN
FROM SE OF JAMES BAY.  THE SKIES MAY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY...AND -8C TO -10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  MAX
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY
10 TO 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U20S FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A VIGOROUS
NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.


ARCTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ON MONDAY. THERE
HAS BEEN GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT HEADS OFFSHORE. THE GFS NOW HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE COAST
ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. THE GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSIVE WITH AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT.

SNOW RATIOS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED
TO START OUT HIGH THEN TRENDED TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...WHILE RATIOS
WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY AS YOU
HEAD NORTHWARD. THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILISTIC FOR SNOW RATIOS INDICATE
60+% FOR ALBANY AND 64+% FOR GLENS FALLS TO HAVE RATIOS OF 15:1 OR
GREATER.

ALL THIS LEADS TO CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING AND
TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

BASED ON THE FORECASTED ONSET OF SNOW HAVE MADE THE START TIME FOR
THE WARNING 9 PM SUNDAY AND THE WATCH AT MIDNIGHT. BOTH RUN
THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY.

THE HEAVIEST MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM ABOUT 09Z-15Z
MONDAY...IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST AT 60-70 KNOTS AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF LATE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALONG
WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DROP TO ZERO OR BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO AND COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAY NEED
WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND QUICKLY SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER
COLD DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS...15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IS
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE
LOW 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THANKS TO A MOISTURE STARVED
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. W-NW WINDS AT
5-10 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH AND BE LIGHT AND NEARLY CALM
FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT...BKN
CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES ON SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. LIGHT
N-NE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 5 KTS FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ICE THICKEN ON
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ALBANY SEASON SNOWFALL TOTAL THROUGH JANUARY 30TH STANDS AT 40 INCHES
WHICH IS 6.4 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 312351
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
651 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. IT
WILL NOT BE AS COLD...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 651 PM EST...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER MOHAWK
VALLEY...WHERE A BATCH OF LOWER CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO THE AREA
FROM CENTRAL NY. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE CROSSING OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE AND DRY LOW LEVELS...LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR. CANNOT
RULE OUT A SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN
AREAS...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

TEMPS WILL DROP OFF THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF AND POSSIBLY EVEN RISE LATE
TONIGHT...AS CLOUDS INCREASE DUE TO THE PASSING BOUNDARY. MIN
TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME BELOW
ZERO READINGS IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

TOMORROW...THE MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL NEAR THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ WESTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.  A 1030 HPA OR SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN
FROM SE OF JAMES BAY.  THE SKIES MAY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY...AND -8C TO -10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  MAX
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY
10 TO 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U20S FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A VIGOROUS
NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.


ARCTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ON MONDAY. THERE
HAS BEEN GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT HEADS OFFSHORE. THE GFS NOW HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE COAST
ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. THE GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSIVE WITH AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT.

SNOW RATIOS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED
TO START OUT HIGH THEN TRENDED TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...WHILE RATIOS
WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY AS YOU
HEAD NORTHWARD. THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILISTIC FOR SNOW RATIOS INDICATE
60+% FOR ALBANY AND 64+% FOR GLENS FALLS TO HAVE RATIOS OF 15:1 OR
GREATER.

ALL THIS LEADS TO CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING AND
TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

BASED ON THE FORECASTED ONSET OF SNOW HAVE MADE THE START TIME FOR
THE WARNING 9 PM SUNDAY AND THE WATCH AT MIDNIGHT. BOTH RUN
THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY.

THE HEAVIEST MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM ABOUT 09Z-15Z
MONDAY...IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST AT 60-70 KNOTS AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF LATE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALONG
WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DROP TO ZERO OR BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO AND COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAY NEED
WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND QUICKLY SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER
COLD DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS...15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IS
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE
LOW 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THANKS TO A MOISTURE STARVED
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. W-NW WINDS AT
5-10 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH AND BE LIGHT AND NEARLY CALM
FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT...BKN
CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES ON SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. LIGHT
N-NE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 5 KTS FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ICE THICKEN ON
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ALBANY SEASON SNOWFALL TOTAL THROUGH JANUARY 30TH STANDS AT 40 INCHES
WHICH IS 6.4 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA









000
FXUS61 KALY 312351
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
651 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. IT
WILL NOT BE AS COLD...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 651 PM EST...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER MOHAWK
VALLEY...WHERE A BATCH OF LOWER CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO THE AREA
FROM CENTRAL NY. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE CROSSING OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE AND DRY LOW LEVELS...LITTLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR. CANNOT
RULE OUT A SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN
AREAS...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY...WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.

TEMPS WILL DROP OFF THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF AND POSSIBLY EVEN RISE LATE
TONIGHT...AS CLOUDS INCREASE DUE TO THE PASSING BOUNDARY. MIN
TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME BELOW
ZERO READINGS IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

TOMORROW...THE MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL NEAR THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ WESTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.  A 1030 HPA OR SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN
FROM SE OF JAMES BAY.  THE SKIES MAY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY...AND -8C TO -10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  MAX
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY
10 TO 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U20S FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A VIGOROUS
NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.


ARCTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ON MONDAY. THERE
HAS BEEN GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT HEADS OFFSHORE. THE GFS NOW HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE COAST
ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. THE GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSIVE WITH AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT.

SNOW RATIOS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED
TO START OUT HIGH THEN TRENDED TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...WHILE RATIOS
WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY AS YOU
HEAD NORTHWARD. THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILISTIC FOR SNOW RATIOS INDICATE
60+% FOR ALBANY AND 64+% FOR GLENS FALLS TO HAVE RATIOS OF 15:1 OR
GREATER.

ALL THIS LEADS TO CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING AND
TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

BASED ON THE FORECASTED ONSET OF SNOW HAVE MADE THE START TIME FOR
THE WARNING 9 PM SUNDAY AND THE WATCH AT MIDNIGHT. BOTH RUN
THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY.

THE HEAVIEST MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM ABOUT 09Z-15Z
MONDAY...IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST AT 60-70 KNOTS AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF LATE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALONG
WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DROP TO ZERO OR BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO AND COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAY NEED
WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND QUICKLY SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER
COLD DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS...15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IS
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE
LOW 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THANKS TO A MOISTURE STARVED
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. W-NW WINDS AT
5-10 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH AND BE LIGHT AND NEARLY CALM
FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT...BKN
CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES ON SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY. LIGHT
N-NE WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 5 KTS FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ICE THICKEN ON
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ALBANY SEASON SNOWFALL TOTAL THROUGH JANUARY 30TH STANDS AT 40 INCHES
WHICH IS 6.4 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA









000
FXUS61 KBTV 312330
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
630 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. OTHERWISE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND
PASS JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
BEGINNING IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...AND ANY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EST SATURDAY...FORECAST HOLDING UP PRETTY WELL. I
DID OPT TO RAISE MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM A BIT.
FEEL THAT PERSISTENT NORTH GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN DEPARTING SYSTEM
IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WEAK HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
HELP SLOW COOLING THAN WOULD OTHERWISE BE THE CASE. WV IMAGERY
DEPICTS A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR JAMES BAY
PRODUCING AN OVERCAST IN ONTARIO. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
BEING DETECTED BY FRANKTOWN, ONTARIO RADAR IN THE OTTAWA VALLEY AS
WELL. PER 18Z/31ST NAM, AFOREENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO GLANCE THE NORTH COUNTRY AND WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO WITH MOISTURE
DEPTH MORE LIMITED WITH EASTERN EXTENT. IDEA THAT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE CONFINED TO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS LOOKS
GOOD DUE PROXIMITY TO THE GREAT LAKES. NO OTHER CHANGES WITH THIS
UPDATE, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE TO AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 314 PM SATURDAY FOLLOWS...

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AREAWIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM SERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NEW YORK.
WE/VE SEEN WIND CHILL VALUES OF -10F TO -20F THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
(WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO)...BUT WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW NW
WINDS TO QUICKLY ABATE NEAR/JUST AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. A
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT
SEWD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL SWLY
FLOW WILL BRING STRATUS IN FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH A
CHANCE OF A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS 03-09Z. GIVEN DRY
PBL CONDITIONS (2-M DEWPOINTS -10F TO -15F)...IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY FLURRIES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...CLOSER TO AVAILABLE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM LAKE ONTARIO. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING AS WELL...SO UPPER SUPPORT FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME STRATUS/ALTOSTRATUS APPEARS LIMITED IN
VERMONT. AS A CONSEQUENCE...BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN VERMONT WITH LATER ARRIVAL/LESSER CLOUD COVER. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM -5F TO -15F IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO
+5F TO -5F MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. IN AREAS SEEING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS...SOME OF THESE LOWS WILL OCCUR BY MIDNIGHT WITH NEAR
STEADY TEMPERATURES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

ON SUNDAY...WILL SEE PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AS SFC RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM NWRN ONTARIO SEWD INTO NRN NY AND VERMONT. LOOKING FOR LIGHT
N-NW WINDS AND SOME RENEWED LOW-LEVEL CAA TO OFFSET NORMAL DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TRENDS. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY
BUT CONTINUING BELOW AVERAGE FOR FEBRUARY 1ST...WITH AFTN VALUES
GENERALLY RANGING FROM +8 TO +15F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 314 PM EST SATURDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT BEGINS TRANQUIL WITH
INCREASING MID-UPPER CLOUDS THRU MIDNIGHT AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
HOLDS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. NO PROBLEM FOR ANY
TRAVEL PLANS DURING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG
STRONG SFC-850MB QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY EWD ACROSS PA SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS POSITIVE
TILT...BUT SHOULD HELP FOCUS DOWNSTREAM AREA OF 850-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING AND STRONG UPWARD MOTION TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW TRACK. THE 12Z NWP GUIDANCE SUITE HAS
CONTINUED THE NWD SHIFT OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED QPF
VALUES...WITH THE 12Z GFS GENERALLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
POTENTIAL SNOWFALL IN OUR REGION (0.5-0.7" LIQUID EQUIV). STRONG
850-700MB WAA...A PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MONDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...AND SATURATION IN A 7000FT DEEP DENDRITE
GROWTH LAYER (PER BOTH NAM/GFS POINT SOUNDINGS) SUGGESTS OPTIMIZED
DYNAMICS AND SNOW MICROPHYSICS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN MONDAY. GIVEN COLD COLUMN AND
DENDRITE GROWTH...LOOKING AT SNOW RATIOS POTENTIALLY 18:1 TO 20:1
THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENT...SO GOOD "FLUFF FACTOR" TO PILE UP THE
SNOW (THOUGH PERHAPS HAVING LESS OVERALL IMPACT THAN CORRESPONDING
AMTS OF HEAVY/WET SNOW WOULD). COUNTERING THE SNOW WILL BE DRY PBL
CONDITIONS...SO WE/LL NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONG SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION GRADIENT SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

STEADY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY
AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN TIME FOR THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. MAXIMIZED UVV OCCURS 15-20Z MONDAY TIME
FRAME...AND COULD SEE 1+"/HR SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
S-CENTRAL VERMONT DURING THAT TIME FRAME. LOOKING FOR SNOWFALL
AMTS TO RANGE FROM 8-10" FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN
VERMONT 4-8" ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACKS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO
SRN CALEDONIA COUNTY...AND THEN 2-4" ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR ALL OF CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL
VERMONT 09Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FURTHER NORTH...PERHAPS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS THE EVENT APPROACHES AND MESOSCALE DETAILS AND LOW TRACK
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. GIVEN PROJECTED LOW SNOW DENSITY, THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE TO TRAVEL THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY WITH
SNOWCOVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW. WORST OF
THE TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN VERMONT.

ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW DEPARTS THROUGH THE
GULF OF MAINE MONDAY EVENING. SHOULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS (SERN VT)...AND FALLING GENERALLY BELOW ZERO MONDAY
NIGHT WITH FRESH SNOWPACK AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE
THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT AREA WITH DRY COLD WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY. A WEAK LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING OUR
FIRST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. ON WEDNESDAY A STRONGER LOW CROSSES THE AREA...SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS. EXTENDED FORECAST WILL GENERALLY BE ACTIVE WITH
SEVERAL WEAK LOWS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AND
COLD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SOME NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS WEDNESDAY WHEN LOW WILL BE
CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR SKC CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. A BKN/OVC VFR STRATUS DECK DEPICTED ON EVENING INFRARED
SATELLITE THEN SPREADS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. AS MOISTURE DEPTH
DECREASES WITH EASTWARD EXTENT, ANY DEVELOPING 5-7 SM VISIBILITY
-SHSN AFTER 05Z WILL BE LIMITED TO MSS AND SLK, ENDING BY 10-12Z.
STRATUS DECK WILL THIN INTO SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
NORTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS (EXCEPTION AT MPV WHERE
NORTH WINDS 10 KTS AND GUSTING TO 20 KTS AT TIMES THIS EVENING).

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z MONDAY-09Z MONDAY...VFR.

09Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR SNOWFALL AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. GREATEST IMPACT LIKELY AT MPV/RUT WITH
MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

12Z THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR VTZ008>012-018-019.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 312330
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
630 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. OTHERWISE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND
PASS JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
BEGINNING IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...AND ANY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EST SATURDAY...FORECAST HOLDING UP PRETTY WELL. I
DID OPT TO RAISE MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM A BIT.
FEEL THAT PERSISTENT NORTH GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN DEPARTING SYSTEM
IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WEAK HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
HELP SLOW COOLING THAN WOULD OTHERWISE BE THE CASE. WV IMAGERY
DEPICTS A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR JAMES BAY
PRODUCING AN OVERCAST IN ONTARIO. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
BEING DETECTED BY FRANKTOWN, ONTARIO RADAR IN THE OTTAWA VALLEY AS
WELL. PER 18Z/31ST NAM, AFOREENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO GLANCE THE NORTH COUNTRY AND WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO WITH MOISTURE
DEPTH MORE LIMITED WITH EASTERN EXTENT. IDEA THAT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE CONFINED TO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS LOOKS
GOOD DUE PROXIMITY TO THE GREAT LAKES. NO OTHER CHANGES WITH THIS
UPDATE, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE TO AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 314 PM SATURDAY FOLLOWS...

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AREAWIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM SERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NEW YORK.
WE/VE SEEN WIND CHILL VALUES OF -10F TO -20F THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
(WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO)...BUT WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW NW
WINDS TO QUICKLY ABATE NEAR/JUST AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. A
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT
SEWD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL SWLY
FLOW WILL BRING STRATUS IN FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH A
CHANCE OF A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS 03-09Z. GIVEN DRY
PBL CONDITIONS (2-M DEWPOINTS -10F TO -15F)...IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY FLURRIES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...CLOSER TO AVAILABLE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM LAKE ONTARIO. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING AS WELL...SO UPPER SUPPORT FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME STRATUS/ALTOSTRATUS APPEARS LIMITED IN
VERMONT. AS A CONSEQUENCE...BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT
WILL BE IN VERMONT WITH LATER ARRIVAL/LESSER CLOUD COVER. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM -5F TO -15F IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO
+5F TO -5F MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. IN AREAS SEEING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS...SOME OF THESE LOWS WILL OCCUR BY MIDNIGHT WITH NEAR
STEADY TEMPERATURES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

ON SUNDAY...WILL SEE PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AS SFC RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM NWRN ONTARIO SEWD INTO NRN NY AND VERMONT. LOOKING FOR LIGHT
N-NW WINDS AND SOME RENEWED LOW-LEVEL CAA TO OFFSET NORMAL DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TRENDS. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY
BUT CONTINUING BELOW AVERAGE FOR FEBRUARY 1ST...WITH AFTN VALUES
GENERALLY RANGING FROM +8 TO +15F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 314 PM EST SATURDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT BEGINS TRANQUIL WITH
INCREASING MID-UPPER CLOUDS THRU MIDNIGHT AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
HOLDS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. NO PROBLEM FOR ANY
TRAVEL PLANS DURING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG
STRONG SFC-850MB QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY EWD ACROSS PA SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS POSITIVE
TILT...BUT SHOULD HELP FOCUS DOWNSTREAM AREA OF 850-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING AND STRONG UPWARD MOTION TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW TRACK. THE 12Z NWP GUIDANCE SUITE HAS
CONTINUED THE NWD SHIFT OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED QPF
VALUES...WITH THE 12Z GFS GENERALLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
POTENTIAL SNOWFALL IN OUR REGION (0.5-0.7" LIQUID EQUIV). STRONG
850-700MB WAA...A PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MONDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...AND SATURATION IN A 7000FT DEEP DENDRITE
GROWTH LAYER (PER BOTH NAM/GFS POINT SOUNDINGS) SUGGESTS OPTIMIZED
DYNAMICS AND SNOW MICROPHYSICS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN MONDAY. GIVEN COLD COLUMN AND
DENDRITE GROWTH...LOOKING AT SNOW RATIOS POTENTIALLY 18:1 TO 20:1
THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENT...SO GOOD "FLUFF FACTOR" TO PILE UP THE
SNOW (THOUGH PERHAPS HAVING LESS OVERALL IMPACT THAN CORRESPONDING
AMTS OF HEAVY/WET SNOW WOULD). COUNTERING THE SNOW WILL BE DRY PBL
CONDITIONS...SO WE/LL NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONG SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION GRADIENT SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

STEADY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY
AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN TIME FOR THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. MAXIMIZED UVV OCCURS 15-20Z MONDAY TIME
FRAME...AND COULD SEE 1+"/HR SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
S-CENTRAL VERMONT DURING THAT TIME FRAME. LOOKING FOR SNOWFALL
AMTS TO RANGE FROM 8-10" FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN
VERMONT 4-8" ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACKS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO
SRN CALEDONIA COUNTY...AND THEN 2-4" ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR ALL OF CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL
VERMONT 09Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FURTHER NORTH...PERHAPS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS THE EVENT APPROACHES AND MESOSCALE DETAILS AND LOW TRACK
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. GIVEN PROJECTED LOW SNOW DENSITY, THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE TO TRAVEL THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY WITH
SNOWCOVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW. WORST OF
THE TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN VERMONT.

ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW DEPARTS THROUGH THE
GULF OF MAINE MONDAY EVENING. SHOULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS (SERN VT)...AND FALLING GENERALLY BELOW ZERO MONDAY
NIGHT WITH FRESH SNOWPACK AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE
THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT AREA WITH DRY COLD WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY. A WEAK LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING OUR
FIRST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. ON WEDNESDAY A STRONGER LOW CROSSES THE AREA...SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS. EXTENDED FORECAST WILL GENERALLY BE ACTIVE WITH
SEVERAL WEAK LOWS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AND
COLD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SOME NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS WEDNESDAY WHEN LOW WILL BE
CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR SKC CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. A BKN/OVC VFR STRATUS DECK DEPICTED ON EVENING INFRARED
SATELLITE THEN SPREADS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. AS MOISTURE DEPTH
DECREASES WITH EASTWARD EXTENT, ANY DEVELOPING 5-7 SM VISIBILITY
-SHSN AFTER 05Z WILL BE LIMITED TO MSS AND SLK, ENDING BY 10-12Z.
STRATUS DECK WILL THIN INTO SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
NORTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS (EXCEPTION AT MPV WHERE
NORTH WINDS 10 KTS AND GUSTING TO 20 KTS AT TIMES THIS EVENING).

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z MONDAY-09Z MONDAY...VFR.

09Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR SNOWFALL AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. GREATEST IMPACT LIKELY AT MPV/RUT WITH
MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

12Z THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR VTZ008>012-018-019.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KALY 312118
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
418 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. IT
WILL NOT BE AS COLD...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT. THE SFC HIGH THAT RIDGED IN FROM THE TN AND OH
VALLEYS WILL WEAKEN...AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE W/NW FLOW WILL
ZIPS TOWARDS NY AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SWERN QUEBEC AND THE ERN GREAT
LAKES REGION.  THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
CLIPPER LOW DO NOT HAVE MUCH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.  THE
SFC DEWPTS ARE VERY LOW IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO 10 BELOW ZERO.
SOUNDING PROFILES ARE VERY DRY IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH JUST AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE W/NW TO THE S/SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE WEAKENING SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT.  THE BEST CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LIGHT ACCUMS
WILL BE ALONG THE WRN SPINE OF THE SW/W DACKS...AND PERHAPS THE
W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY.  ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH
OR LESS.

TEMPS WILL DROP OFF SLIGHTLY BEFORE THE CLOUDS INCREASE.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE ZERO TO 5 BELOW RANGE ACROSS THE SRN DACKS AND PARTS OF
THE LAKE GEORGE REGION. SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE COMMON IN MOST OTHER
LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE LOWS WILL
BE NEAR 10F.

TOMORROW...THE MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL NEAR THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ WESTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.  A 1030 HPA OR SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN
FROM SE OF JAMES BAY.  THE SKIES MAY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY...AND -8C TO -10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  MAX
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY
10 TO 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U20S FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A VIGOROUS
NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.


ARCTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ON MONDAY. THERE
HAS BEEN GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT HEADS OFFSHORE. THE GFS NOW HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE COAST
ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. THE GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSIVE WITH AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT.

SNOW RATIOS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED
TO START OUT HIGH THEN TRENDED TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...WHILE RATIOS
WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY AS YOU
HEAD NORTHWARD. THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILISTIC FOR SNOW RATIOS INDICATE
60+% FOR ALBANY AND 64+% FOR GLENS FALLS TO HAVE RATIOS OF 15:1 OR
GREATER.

ALL THIS LEADS TO CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING AND
TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

BASED ON THE FORECASTED ONSET OF SNOW HAVE MADE THE START TIME FOR
THE WARNING 9 PM SUNDAY AND THE WATCH AT MIDNIGHT. BOTH RUN
THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY.

THE HEAVIEST MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM ABOUT 09Z-15Z
MONDAY...IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST AT 60-70 KNOTS AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF LATE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALONG
WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DROP TO ZERO OR BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO AND COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAY NEED
WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND QUICKLY SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER
COLD DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS...15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IS
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE
LOW 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN THIS AFTERNOON...AS A CLIPPER
LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND SE ONTARIO
TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR
KALB/KPSF/KGFL/KPOU. SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST BTWN 00Z-06Z. THE CIGS WILL LOWER TO 3-6 KFT AGL BTWN 06Z-
12Z. THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE AT KPSF. ONCE THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES E/SE AFTER 12Z/SUN...THE SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME PARTLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

W/NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM
THE N TO W AT LESS THAN 6 KTS OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE W TO NW AT 5-10 KTS SUNDAY LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ICE THICKEN ON
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ALBANY SEASON SNOWFALL TOTAL THROUGH JANUARY 30TH STANDS AT 40 INCHES
WHICH IS 6.4 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 312118
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
418 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. IT
WILL NOT BE AS COLD...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT. THE SFC HIGH THAT RIDGED IN FROM THE TN AND OH
VALLEYS WILL WEAKEN...AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE W/NW FLOW WILL
ZIPS TOWARDS NY AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SWERN QUEBEC AND THE ERN GREAT
LAKES REGION.  THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
CLIPPER LOW DO NOT HAVE MUCH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.  THE
SFC DEWPTS ARE VERY LOW IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO 10 BELOW ZERO.
SOUNDING PROFILES ARE VERY DRY IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH JUST AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE W/NW TO THE S/SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE WEAKENING SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT.  THE BEST CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LIGHT ACCUMS
WILL BE ALONG THE WRN SPINE OF THE SW/W DACKS...AND PERHAPS THE
W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY.  ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH
OR LESS.

TEMPS WILL DROP OFF SLIGHTLY BEFORE THE CLOUDS INCREASE.  LOWS WILL
BE IN THE ZERO TO 5 BELOW RANGE ACROSS THE SRN DACKS AND PARTS OF
THE LAKE GEORGE REGION. SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE COMMON IN MOST OTHER
LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE LOWS WILL
BE NEAR 10F.

TOMORROW...THE MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL NEAR THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ WESTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.  A 1030 HPA OR SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN
FROM SE OF JAMES BAY.  THE SKIES MAY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY...AND -8C TO -10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  MAX
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY
10 TO 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U20S FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A VIGOROUS
NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.


ARCTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ON MONDAY. THERE
HAS BEEN GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT HEADS OFFSHORE. THE GFS NOW HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE COAST
ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. THE GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSIVE WITH AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT.

SNOW RATIOS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED
TO START OUT HIGH THEN TRENDED TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...WHILE RATIOS
WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY AS YOU
HEAD NORTHWARD. THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILISTIC FOR SNOW RATIOS INDICATE
60+% FOR ALBANY AND 64+% FOR GLENS FALLS TO HAVE RATIOS OF 15:1 OR
GREATER.

ALL THIS LEADS TO CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING AND
TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

BASED ON THE FORECASTED ONSET OF SNOW HAVE MADE THE START TIME FOR
THE WARNING 9 PM SUNDAY AND THE WATCH AT MIDNIGHT. BOTH RUN
THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY.

THE HEAVIEST MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM ABOUT 09Z-15Z
MONDAY...IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST AT 60-70 KNOTS AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF LATE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALONG
WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DROP TO ZERO OR BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO AND COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAY NEED
WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND QUICKLY SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER
COLD DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS...15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IS
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE
LOW 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO
5 ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN THIS AFTERNOON...AS A CLIPPER
LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND SE ONTARIO
TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR
KALB/KPSF/KGFL/KPOU. SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST BTWN 00Z-06Z. THE CIGS WILL LOWER TO 3-6 KFT AGL BTWN 06Z-
12Z. THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE AT KPSF. ONCE THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES E/SE AFTER 12Z/SUN...THE SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME PARTLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

W/NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM
THE N TO W AT LESS THAN 6 KTS OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE W TO NW AT 5-10 KTS SUNDAY LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ICE THICKEN ON
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ALBANY SEASON SNOWFALL TOTAL THROUGH JANUARY 30TH STANDS AT 40 INCHES
WHICH IS 6.4 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA








000
FXUS61 KBTV 312044
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
344 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. OTHERWISE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND
PASS JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
BEGINNING IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...AND ANY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 314 PM EST SATURDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AREAWIDE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM SERN ONTARIO
AND WESTERN NEW YORK. WE/VE SEEN WIND CHILL VALUES OF -10F TO -20F
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON (WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO)...BUT WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW NW WINDS TO QUICKLY ABATE NEAR/JUST
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT SEWD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT.
DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL SWLY FLOW WILL BRING STRATUS IN FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS 03-09Z. GIVEN DRY PBL CONDITIONS (2-M DEWPOINTS -10F TO
-15F)...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY FLURRIES WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS/SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...CLOSER TO
AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM LAKE ONTARIO. THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING AS WELL...SO UPPER
SUPPORT FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME STRATUS/ALTOSTRATUS APPEARS
LIMITED IN VERMONT. AS A CONSEQUENCE...BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN VERMONT WITH LATER ARRIVAL/LESSER CLOUD
COVER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM -5F TO -15F IN THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM...TO +5F TO -5F MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. IN AREAS SEEING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS...SOME OF THESE LOWS WILL OCCUR BY MIDNIGHT
WITH NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

ON SUNDAY...WILL SEE PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AS SFC RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM NWRN ONTARIO SEWD INTO NRN NY AND VERMONT. LOOKING FOR LIGHT
N-NW WINDS AND SOME RENEWED LOW-LEVEL CAA TO OFFSET NORMAL DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TRENDS. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY
BUT CONTINUING BELOW AVERAGE FOR FEBRUARY 1ST...WITH AFTN VALUES
GENERALLY RANGING FROM +8 TO +15F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 314 PM EST SATURDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT BEGINS TRANQUIL WITH
INCREASING MID-UPPER CLOUDS THRU MIDNIGHT AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
HOLDS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. NO PROBLEM FOR ANY
TRAVEL PLANS DURING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG
STRONG SFC-850MB QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY EWD ACROSS PA SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS POSITIVE
TILT...BUT SHOULD HELP FOCUS DOWNSTREAM AREA OF 850-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING AND STRONG UPWARD MOTION TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW TRACK. THE 12Z NWP GUIDANCE SUITE HAS
CONTINUED THE NWD SHIFT OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED QPF
VALUES...WITH THE 12Z GFS GENERALLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
POTENTIAL SNOWFALL IN OUR REGION (0.5-0.7" LIQUID EQUIV). STRONG
850-700MB WAA...A PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MONDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...AND SATURATION IN A 7000FT DEEP DENDRITE
GROWTH LAYER (PER BOTH NAM/GFS POINT SOUNDINGS) SUGGESTS OPTIMIZED
DYNAMICS AND SNOW MICROPHYSICS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN MONDAY. GIVEN COLD COLUMN AND
DENDRITE GROWTH...LOOKING AT SNOW RATIOS POTENTIALLY 18:1 TO 20:1
THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENT...SO GOOD "FLUFF FACTOR" TO PILE UP THE
SNOW (THOUGH PERHAPS HAVING LESS OVERALL IMPACT THAN CORRESPONDING
AMTS OF HEAVY/WET SNOW WOULD). COUNTERING THE SNOW WILL BE DRY PBL
CONDITIONS...SO WE/LL NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONG SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION GRADIENT SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

STEADY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY
AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN TIME FOR THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. MAXIMIZED UVV OCCURS 15-20Z MONDAY TIME
FRAME...AND COULD SEE 1+"/HR SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
S-CENTRAL VERMONT DURING THAT TIME FRAME. LOOKING FOR SNOWFALL
AMTS TO RANGE FROM 8-10" FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN
VERMONT 4-8" ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACKS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO
SRN CALEDONIA COUNTY...AND THEN 2-4" ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR ALL OF CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL
VERMONT 09Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FURTHER NORTH...PERHAPS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS THE EVENT APPROACHES AND MESOSCALE DETAILS AND LOW TRACK
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. GIVEN PROJECTED LOW SNOW DENSITY, THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE TO TRAVEL THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY WITH
SNOWCOVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW. WORST OF
THE TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN VERMONT.

ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW DEPARTS THROUGH THE
GULF OF MAINE MONDAY EVENING. SHOULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS (SERN VT)...AND FALLING GENERALLY BELOW ZERO MONDAY
NIGHT WITH FRESH SNOWPACK AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE
THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT AREA WITH DRY COLD WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY. A WEAK LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING OUR
FIRST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. ON WEDNESDAY A STRONGER LOW CROSSES THE AREA...SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS. EXTENDED FORECAST WILL GENERALLY BE ACTIVE WITH
SEVERAL WEAK LOWS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AND
COLD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SOME NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS WEDNESDAY WHEN LOW WILL BE
CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 06Z SUNDAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME VFR BKN CEILINGS. CONDITIONS CLEAR UP
AFTER 12Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SUNDAY-09Z MONDAY...VFR.

09Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR SNOWFALL AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. GREATEST IMPACT LIKELY AT MPV/RUT WITH
MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

12Z THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR VTZ008>012-018-019.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 312044
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
344 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. OTHERWISE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND
PASS JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
BEGINNING IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...AND ANY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 314 PM EST SATURDAY...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AREAWIDE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM SERN ONTARIO
AND WESTERN NEW YORK. WE/VE SEEN WIND CHILL VALUES OF -10F TO -20F
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON (WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO)...BUT WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW NW WINDS TO QUICKLY ABATE NEAR/JUST
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT SEWD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT.
DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL SWLY FLOW WILL BRING STRATUS IN FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES AREA...WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS 03-09Z. GIVEN DRY PBL CONDITIONS (2-M DEWPOINTS -10F TO
-15F)...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY FLURRIES WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS/SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...CLOSER TO
AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM LAKE ONTARIO. THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING AS WELL...SO UPPER
SUPPORT FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME STRATUS/ALTOSTRATUS APPEARS
LIMITED IN VERMONT. AS A CONSEQUENCE...BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN VERMONT WITH LATER ARRIVAL/LESSER CLOUD
COVER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM -5F TO -15F IN THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM...TO +5F TO -5F MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. IN AREAS SEEING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS...SOME OF THESE LOWS WILL OCCUR BY MIDNIGHT
WITH NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

ON SUNDAY...WILL SEE PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AS SFC RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM NWRN ONTARIO SEWD INTO NRN NY AND VERMONT. LOOKING FOR LIGHT
N-NW WINDS AND SOME RENEWED LOW-LEVEL CAA TO OFFSET NORMAL DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TRENDS. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY
BUT CONTINUING BELOW AVERAGE FOR FEBRUARY 1ST...WITH AFTN VALUES
GENERALLY RANGING FROM +8 TO +15F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 314 PM EST SATURDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT BEGINS TRANQUIL WITH
INCREASING MID-UPPER CLOUDS THRU MIDNIGHT AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
HOLDS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. NO PROBLEM FOR ANY
TRAVEL PLANS DURING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG
STRONG SFC-850MB QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY EWD ACROSS PA SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS POSITIVE
TILT...BUT SHOULD HELP FOCUS DOWNSTREAM AREA OF 850-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING AND STRONG UPWARD MOTION TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW TRACK. THE 12Z NWP GUIDANCE SUITE HAS
CONTINUED THE NWD SHIFT OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED QPF
VALUES...WITH THE 12Z GFS GENERALLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
POTENTIAL SNOWFALL IN OUR REGION (0.5-0.7" LIQUID EQUIV). STRONG
850-700MB WAA...A PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MONDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN...AND SATURATION IN A 7000FT DEEP DENDRITE
GROWTH LAYER (PER BOTH NAM/GFS POINT SOUNDINGS) SUGGESTS OPTIMIZED
DYNAMICS AND SNOW MICROPHYSICS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN MONDAY. GIVEN COLD COLUMN AND
DENDRITE GROWTH...LOOKING AT SNOW RATIOS POTENTIALLY 18:1 TO 20:1
THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENT...SO GOOD "FLUFF FACTOR" TO PILE UP THE
SNOW (THOUGH PERHAPS HAVING LESS OVERALL IMPACT THAN CORRESPONDING
AMTS OF HEAVY/WET SNOW WOULD). COUNTERING THE SNOW WILL BE DRY PBL
CONDITIONS...SO WE/LL NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONG SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION GRADIENT SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

STEADY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY
AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN TIME FOR THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. MAXIMIZED UVV OCCURS 15-20Z MONDAY TIME
FRAME...AND COULD SEE 1+"/HR SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
S-CENTRAL VERMONT DURING THAT TIME FRAME. LOOKING FOR SNOWFALL
AMTS TO RANGE FROM 8-10" FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES IN
VERMONT 4-8" ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACKS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO
SRN CALEDONIA COUNTY...AND THEN 2-4" ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR ALL OF CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL
VERMONT 09Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FURTHER NORTH...PERHAPS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS THE EVENT APPROACHES AND MESOSCALE DETAILS AND LOW TRACK
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. GIVEN PROJECTED LOW SNOW DENSITY, THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE TO TRAVEL THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY WITH
SNOWCOVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITIES IN FALLING SNOW. WORST OF
THE TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN VERMONT.

ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW DEPARTS THROUGH THE
GULF OF MAINE MONDAY EVENING. SHOULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS (SERN VT)...AND FALLING GENERALLY BELOW ZERO MONDAY
NIGHT WITH FRESH SNOWPACK AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE
THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT AREA WITH DRY COLD WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY. A WEAK LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING OUR
FIRST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. ON WEDNESDAY A STRONGER LOW CROSSES THE AREA...SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS. EXTENDED FORECAST WILL GENERALLY BE ACTIVE WITH
SEVERAL WEAK LOWS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AND
COLD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SOME NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS WEDNESDAY WHEN LOW WILL BE
CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 06Z SUNDAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME VFR BKN CEILINGS. CONDITIONS CLEAR UP
AFTER 12Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SUNDAY-09Z MONDAY...VFR.

09Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR SNOWFALL AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. GREATEST IMPACT LIKELY AT MPV/RUT WITH
MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

12Z THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR VTZ008>012-018-019.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 312011
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
311 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY, ENDING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY, BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCE FOR SNOW MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1255 PM EST SATURDAY...WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN CANCELLED...WITH WIND CHILL READINGS NOW GENERALLY ABOVE
ASSOCIATED CRITERIA.

A COLD WINTER DAY FEATURING INEFFECTIVE SUNSHINE AS HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON ONLY REACH ZERO TO +10F IN MOST LOCATIONS. LOW-LEVEL
NWLY DOWNSLOPING INTO THE CT RIVER VALLEY WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW
READINGS INTO THE LOWER TEENS THIS AFTN FROM WHITE RIVER JCT TO
SPRINGFIELD. SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS MODERATELY STRONG
BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM SERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NY. WHILE
WE`LL SEE CLEAR/DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE TODAY...N-NW WINDS OF
10-15 MPH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON WIND CHILLS IN THE 10 TO 20
BELOW RANGE (AND LOWER AT SUMMIT LEVEL). SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS
OVERHEAD BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SEE NEARLY CALM
CONDITIONS BY AROUND/JUST AFTER SUNSET. STRATUS LAYER ASSOCIATED
WITH UPSTREAM NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT EWD
INTO OUR NRN NY COUNTIES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. HAVE SHOWN THIS INCREASING CLOUD TREND WHILE KEEPING
CONDITIONS MAINLY CLEAR THRU 7PM ACROSS VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 AM EST SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHRINKS
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
WESTERN SLOPES AS WE STAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW. CLOUDS ACCOMPANY THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH
MINIMUMS RANGING FROM NEGATIVE LOW TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
TO LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THE WAVE LOOKS TO WASH OUT BY SUNDAY MORNING, SO POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS WAVE, A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT SUNDAY MAXES TO BE IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW MOVING UP TO OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW
WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW REACHING SOUTHERN
ZONES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS TRENDING MORE NORTHERN REACH OF
PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVER THE 40N
70W BENCHMARK ON MONDAY. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS WITH CHANCE
REACHING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LIKELY INTO CENTRAL VERMONT
AND ADIRONDACKS. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MODEL RUNS SHOW CONSISTENCY ON
THIS SOLUTION BEFORE CONFIDENCE CAN INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA. PWATS SHOW LEVELS JUST SHY OF THIS
PAST STORM, BUT DRIER AIR AND PERSISTENT DRYING NORTHERLY FLOW
COULD KEEP PRECIP ALOFT...ENDING AS VIRGA FOR AT LEAST THE
BEGINNING OF THIS SYSTEM OR NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUES TO BE FRIGID SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS
RANGING FROM -20F TO -2F AND MONDAY ONLY REACHING -5F TO SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE
THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT AREA WITH DRY COLD WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY. A WEAK LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING OUR
FIRST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. ON WEDNESDAY A STRONGER LOW CROSSES THE AREA...SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS. EXTENDED FORECAST WILL GENERALLY BE ACTIVE WITH
SEVERAL WEAK LOWS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AND
COLD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SOME NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS WEDNESDAY WHEN LOW WILL BE
CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 06Z SUNDAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME VFR BKN CEILINGS. CONDITIONS CLEAR UP
AFTER 12Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF
REGION. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM 12Z
MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

12Z THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR VTZ008>012-018-019.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 312011
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
311 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY, ENDING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY, BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCE FOR SNOW MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1255 PM EST SATURDAY...WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN CANCELLED...WITH WIND CHILL READINGS NOW GENERALLY ABOVE
ASSOCIATED CRITERIA.

A COLD WINTER DAY FEATURING INEFFECTIVE SUNSHINE AS HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON ONLY REACH ZERO TO +10F IN MOST LOCATIONS. LOW-LEVEL
NWLY DOWNSLOPING INTO THE CT RIVER VALLEY WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW
READINGS INTO THE LOWER TEENS THIS AFTN FROM WHITE RIVER JCT TO
SPRINGFIELD. SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS MODERATELY STRONG
BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM SERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NY. WHILE
WE`LL SEE CLEAR/DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE TODAY...N-NW WINDS OF
10-15 MPH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON WIND CHILLS IN THE 10 TO 20
BELOW RANGE (AND LOWER AT SUMMIT LEVEL). SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS
OVERHEAD BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SEE NEARLY CALM
CONDITIONS BY AROUND/JUST AFTER SUNSET. STRATUS LAYER ASSOCIATED
WITH UPSTREAM NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT EWD
INTO OUR NRN NY COUNTIES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. HAVE SHOWN THIS INCREASING CLOUD TREND WHILE KEEPING
CONDITIONS MAINLY CLEAR THRU 7PM ACROSS VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 AM EST SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHRINKS
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
WESTERN SLOPES AS WE STAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW. CLOUDS ACCOMPANY THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH
MINIMUMS RANGING FROM NEGATIVE LOW TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
TO LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THE WAVE LOOKS TO WASH OUT BY SUNDAY MORNING, SO POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS WAVE, A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT SUNDAY MAXES TO BE IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW MOVING UP TO OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW
WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW REACHING SOUTHERN
ZONES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS TRENDING MORE NORTHERN REACH OF
PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVER THE 40N
70W BENCHMARK ON MONDAY. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS WITH CHANCE
REACHING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LIKELY INTO CENTRAL VERMONT
AND ADIRONDACKS. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MODEL RUNS SHOW CONSISTENCY ON
THIS SOLUTION BEFORE CONFIDENCE CAN INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA. PWATS SHOW LEVELS JUST SHY OF THIS
PAST STORM, BUT DRIER AIR AND PERSISTENT DRYING NORTHERLY FLOW
COULD KEEP PRECIP ALOFT...ENDING AS VIRGA FOR AT LEAST THE
BEGINNING OF THIS SYSTEM OR NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUES TO BE FRIGID SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS
RANGING FROM -20F TO -2F AND MONDAY ONLY REACHING -5F TO SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE
THE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT AREA WITH DRY COLD WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY. A WEAK LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING OUR
FIRST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. ON WEDNESDAY A STRONGER LOW CROSSES THE AREA...SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS. EXTENDED FORECAST WILL GENERALLY BE ACTIVE WITH
SEVERAL WEAK LOWS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AND
COLD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SOME NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS WEDNESDAY WHEN LOW WILL BE
CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 06Z SUNDAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME VFR BKN CEILINGS. CONDITIONS CLEAR UP
AFTER 12Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF
REGION. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM 12Z
MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

12Z THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR VTZ008>012-018-019.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KALY 311758
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1258 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN A CLIPPER
LOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1257 PM EST...THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE. STILL...A BITTERLY COLD DAY OUT THERE WITH W TO NW WINDS
10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. WIND CHILLS 10 BELOW
TO 10 ABOVE WILL BE COMMON WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOWER TEENS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT WHERE SOME MID AND UPPER TEENS ARE POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BE IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON...
RIDGING IN FROM THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
ANTICYCLONE. THE WINDS WILL ABATE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...AS A
WEAK CLIPPER APPROACHES.

STORM FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOKS ON TRACK...AND A WINTER
STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR MOST OF THE FCST AREA EXCEPT FOR
HAMILTON...NRN WARREN...NRN WASHINGTON...AND NRN HERKIMER
COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...

FOR TONIGHT...A FAST MOVING MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO RACE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FA WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 5 BELOW
ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE 10 ABOVE ZERO SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND IN
THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WE ARE EXPECTING A DRY DAY.
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SO
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER THAN
SATURDAY...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE
LOWER TEENS NORTHWEST TO UPPER 20S SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE FA EXCLUDING
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A PROGRESSIVE
TYPE SYSTEM AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS NEUTRAL POSITIVELY
TILTED UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS WELL OFF THE COAST. THE SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE GOOD OVERRUNNING AS
THERE IS PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DECENT FRONTOGENESIS AT H7
BTWN 12Z AND 18Z ON MONDAY. IN THE WATCH AREA 7 INCHES OR MORE OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER AS WITH SO MANY STORMS THIS WINTER
THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF ON THE NORTHERN EDGE...THUS THE
REASON THAT THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WERE LEFT OUT OF THE WATCH AT
THIS TIME. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15
BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE MID TEENS SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO AROUND 20 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY/S STORM SYSTEM...THE
COMBINATION OF POTENTIALLY DEEP FRESH SNOW COVER...DECREASING
WIND...AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET LATER AT
NIGHT WELL BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS...WITH MANY MIN TEMPS POSSIBLY
DIPPING INTO THE -10 TO -20 F RANGE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AT THAT TIME...SO
WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ACTUAL AIR TEMPS. AFTER THE
BRUTALLY COLD START...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. MAX TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD EVENTUALLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-THU...A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME
WARM ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUE NT INTO EARLY
WED...ESP ACROSS NW AREAS. THEN...ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE WED OR
EARLY THU...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN VT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BY LATE
THU. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL MODERATE A BIT IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH WED MAX
TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING AROUND OR JUST OVER 30 IN VALLEYS...WITH
MAINLY MID/UPPER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS TUE
NT/WED AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST AREAS...WITH
SOME SUBZERO MINS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
THE LAKE GEORGE REGION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MIN TEMPS OCCUR EARLY
TUE EVE...THEN RISE LATER AT NIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. WED NT/THU AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON THU...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S...BUT MAY FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

THU NT-FRI...GENERALLY COLD AND DRY. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO IN MOST AREAS...AND WITH SOME LINGERING WIND...WIND CHILL
VALUES MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MANY AREAS...AND POSSIBLY
WARNING LEVELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI MAX
TEMPS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS...AND SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN THIS AFTERNOON...AS A CLIPPER
LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND SE ONTARIO
TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR
KALB/KPSF/KGFL/KPOU. SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST BTWN 00Z-06Z. THE CIGS WILL LOWER TO 3-6 KFT AGL BTWN 06Z-
12Z. THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE AT KPSF. ONCE THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES E/SE AFTER 12Z/SUN...THE SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME PARTLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

W/NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM
THE N TO W AT LESS THAN 6 KTS OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE W TO NW AT 5-10 KTS SUNDAY LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY WITH MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. ANY
CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE STORM WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT
ON THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KALY 311758
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1258 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN A CLIPPER
LOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1257 PM EST...THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE. STILL...A BITTERLY COLD DAY OUT THERE WITH W TO NW WINDS
10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. WIND CHILLS 10 BELOW
TO 10 ABOVE WILL BE COMMON WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOWER TEENS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT WHERE SOME MID AND UPPER TEENS ARE POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BE IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON...
RIDGING IN FROM THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
ANTICYCLONE. THE WINDS WILL ABATE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...AS A
WEAK CLIPPER APPROACHES.

STORM FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOKS ON TRACK...AND A WINTER
STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR MOST OF THE FCST AREA EXCEPT FOR
HAMILTON...NRN WARREN...NRN WASHINGTON...AND NRN HERKIMER
COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...

FOR TONIGHT...A FAST MOVING MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO RACE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FA WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 5 BELOW
ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE 10 ABOVE ZERO SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND IN
THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WE ARE EXPECTING A DRY DAY.
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SO
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER THAN
SATURDAY...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE
LOWER TEENS NORTHWEST TO UPPER 20S SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE FA EXCLUDING
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A PROGRESSIVE
TYPE SYSTEM AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS NEUTRAL POSITIVELY
TILTED UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS WELL OFF THE COAST. THE SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE GOOD OVERRUNNING AS
THERE IS PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DECENT FRONTOGENESIS AT H7
BTWN 12Z AND 18Z ON MONDAY. IN THE WATCH AREA 7 INCHES OR MORE OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER AS WITH SO MANY STORMS THIS WINTER
THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF ON THE NORTHERN EDGE...THUS THE
REASON THAT THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WERE LEFT OUT OF THE WATCH AT
THIS TIME. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15
BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE MID TEENS SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO AROUND 20 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY/S STORM SYSTEM...THE
COMBINATION OF POTENTIALLY DEEP FRESH SNOW COVER...DECREASING
WIND...AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET LATER AT
NIGHT WELL BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS...WITH MANY MIN TEMPS POSSIBLY
DIPPING INTO THE -10 TO -20 F RANGE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AT THAT TIME...SO
WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ACTUAL AIR TEMPS. AFTER THE
BRUTALLY COLD START...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. MAX TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD EVENTUALLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-THU...A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME
WARM ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUE NT INTO EARLY
WED...ESP ACROSS NW AREAS. THEN...ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE WED OR
EARLY THU...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN VT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BY LATE
THU. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL MODERATE A BIT IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH WED MAX
TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING AROUND OR JUST OVER 30 IN VALLEYS...WITH
MAINLY MID/UPPER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS TUE
NT/WED AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST AREAS...WITH
SOME SUBZERO MINS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
THE LAKE GEORGE REGION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MIN TEMPS OCCUR EARLY
TUE EVE...THEN RISE LATER AT NIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. WED NT/THU AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON THU...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S...BUT MAY FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

THU NT-FRI...GENERALLY COLD AND DRY. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO IN MOST AREAS...AND WITH SOME LINGERING WIND...WIND CHILL
VALUES MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MANY AREAS...AND POSSIBLY
WARNING LEVELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI MAX
TEMPS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS...AND SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN THIS AFTERNOON...AS A CLIPPER
LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND SE ONTARIO
TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR
KALB/KPSF/KGFL/KPOU. SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST BTWN 00Z-06Z. THE CIGS WILL LOWER TO 3-6 KFT AGL BTWN 06Z-
12Z. THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE AT KPSF. ONCE THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES E/SE AFTER 12Z/SUN...THE SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME PARTLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

W/NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM
THE N TO W AT LESS THAN 6 KTS OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE W TO NW AT 5-10 KTS SUNDAY LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY WITH MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. ANY
CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE STORM WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT
ON THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KALY 311758
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1258 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN A CLIPPER
LOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1257 PM EST...THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE. STILL...A BITTERLY COLD DAY OUT THERE WITH W TO NW WINDS
10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. WIND CHILLS 10 BELOW
TO 10 ABOVE WILL BE COMMON WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOWER TEENS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT WHERE SOME MID AND UPPER TEENS ARE POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BE IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON...
RIDGING IN FROM THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
ANTICYCLONE. THE WINDS WILL ABATE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...AS A
WEAK CLIPPER APPROACHES.

STORM FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOKS ON TRACK...AND A WINTER
STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR MOST OF THE FCST AREA EXCEPT FOR
HAMILTON...NRN WARREN...NRN WASHINGTON...AND NRN HERKIMER
COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...

FOR TONIGHT...A FAST MOVING MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO RACE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FA WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 5 BELOW
ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE 10 ABOVE ZERO SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND IN
THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WE ARE EXPECTING A DRY DAY.
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SO
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER THAN
SATURDAY...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE
LOWER TEENS NORTHWEST TO UPPER 20S SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE FA EXCLUDING
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A PROGRESSIVE
TYPE SYSTEM AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS NEUTRAL POSITIVELY
TILTED UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS WELL OFF THE COAST. THE SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE GOOD OVERRUNNING AS
THERE IS PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DECENT FRONTOGENESIS AT H7
BTWN 12Z AND 18Z ON MONDAY. IN THE WATCH AREA 7 INCHES OR MORE OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER AS WITH SO MANY STORMS THIS WINTER
THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF ON THE NORTHERN EDGE...THUS THE
REASON THAT THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WERE LEFT OUT OF THE WATCH AT
THIS TIME. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15
BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE MID TEENS SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO AROUND 20 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY/S STORM SYSTEM...THE
COMBINATION OF POTENTIALLY DEEP FRESH SNOW COVER...DECREASING
WIND...AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET LATER AT
NIGHT WELL BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS...WITH MANY MIN TEMPS POSSIBLY
DIPPING INTO THE -10 TO -20 F RANGE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AT THAT TIME...SO
WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ACTUAL AIR TEMPS. AFTER THE
BRUTALLY COLD START...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. MAX TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD EVENTUALLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-THU...A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME
WARM ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUE NT INTO EARLY
WED...ESP ACROSS NW AREAS. THEN...ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE WED OR
EARLY THU...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN VT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BY LATE
THU. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL MODERATE A BIT IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH WED MAX
TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING AROUND OR JUST OVER 30 IN VALLEYS...WITH
MAINLY MID/UPPER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS TUE
NT/WED AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST AREAS...WITH
SOME SUBZERO MINS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
THE LAKE GEORGE REGION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MIN TEMPS OCCUR EARLY
TUE EVE...THEN RISE LATER AT NIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. WED NT/THU AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON THU...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S...BUT MAY FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

THU NT-FRI...GENERALLY COLD AND DRY. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO IN MOST AREAS...AND WITH SOME LINGERING WIND...WIND CHILL
VALUES MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MANY AREAS...AND POSSIBLY
WARNING LEVELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI MAX
TEMPS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS...AND SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN THIS AFTERNOON...AS A CLIPPER
LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND SE ONTARIO
TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR
KALB/KPSF/KGFL/KPOU. SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST BTWN 00Z-06Z. THE CIGS WILL LOWER TO 3-6 KFT AGL BTWN 06Z-
12Z. THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE AT KPSF. ONCE THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES E/SE AFTER 12Z/SUN...THE SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME PARTLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

W/NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM
THE N TO W AT LESS THAN 6 KTS OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE W TO NW AT 5-10 KTS SUNDAY LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY WITH MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. ANY
CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE STORM WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT
ON THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KALY 311758
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1258 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN A CLIPPER
LOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1257 PM EST...THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE. STILL...A BITTERLY COLD DAY OUT THERE WITH W TO NW WINDS
10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. WIND CHILLS 10 BELOW
TO 10 ABOVE WILL BE COMMON WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOWER TEENS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT WHERE SOME MID AND UPPER TEENS ARE POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BE IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON...
RIDGING IN FROM THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
ANTICYCLONE. THE WINDS WILL ABATE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...AS A
WEAK CLIPPER APPROACHES.

STORM FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOKS ON TRACK...AND A WINTER
STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR MOST OF THE FCST AREA EXCEPT FOR
HAMILTON...NRN WARREN...NRN WASHINGTON...AND NRN HERKIMER
COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...

FOR TONIGHT...A FAST MOVING MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO RACE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FA WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 5 BELOW
ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE 10 ABOVE ZERO SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND IN
THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WE ARE EXPECTING A DRY DAY.
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SO
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER THAN
SATURDAY...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE
LOWER TEENS NORTHWEST TO UPPER 20S SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE FA EXCLUDING
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A PROGRESSIVE
TYPE SYSTEM AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS NEUTRAL POSITIVELY
TILTED UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS WELL OFF THE COAST. THE SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE GOOD OVERRUNNING AS
THERE IS PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DECENT FRONTOGENESIS AT H7
BTWN 12Z AND 18Z ON MONDAY. IN THE WATCH AREA 7 INCHES OR MORE OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER AS WITH SO MANY STORMS THIS WINTER
THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF ON THE NORTHERN EDGE...THUS THE
REASON THAT THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WERE LEFT OUT OF THE WATCH AT
THIS TIME. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15
BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE MID TEENS SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO AROUND 20 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY/S STORM SYSTEM...THE
COMBINATION OF POTENTIALLY DEEP FRESH SNOW COVER...DECREASING
WIND...AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET LATER AT
NIGHT WELL BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS...WITH MANY MIN TEMPS POSSIBLY
DIPPING INTO THE -10 TO -20 F RANGE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AT THAT TIME...SO
WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ACTUAL AIR TEMPS. AFTER THE
BRUTALLY COLD START...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. MAX TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD EVENTUALLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-THU...A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME
WARM ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUE NT INTO EARLY
WED...ESP ACROSS NW AREAS. THEN...ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE WED OR
EARLY THU...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN VT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BY LATE
THU. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL MODERATE A BIT IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH WED MAX
TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING AROUND OR JUST OVER 30 IN VALLEYS...WITH
MAINLY MID/UPPER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS TUE
NT/WED AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST AREAS...WITH
SOME SUBZERO MINS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
THE LAKE GEORGE REGION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MIN TEMPS OCCUR EARLY
TUE EVE...THEN RISE LATER AT NIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. WED NT/THU AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON THU...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S...BUT MAY FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

THU NT-FRI...GENERALLY COLD AND DRY. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO IN MOST AREAS...AND WITH SOME LINGERING WIND...WIND CHILL
VALUES MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MANY AREAS...AND POSSIBLY
WARNING LEVELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI MAX
TEMPS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS...AND SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN THIS AFTERNOON...AS A CLIPPER
LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND SE ONTARIO
TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR
KALB/KPSF/KGFL/KPOU. SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST BTWN 00Z-06Z. THE CIGS WILL LOWER TO 3-6 KFT AGL BTWN 06Z-
12Z. THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE AT KPSF. ONCE THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES E/SE AFTER 12Z/SUN...THE SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME PARTLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

W/NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM
THE N TO W AT LESS THAN 6 KTS OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE W TO NW AT 5-10 KTS SUNDAY LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY WITH MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. ANY
CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE STORM WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT
ON THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KBTV 311757
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1257 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY, ENDING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY, BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCE FOR SNOW MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1255 PM EST SATURDAY...WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN CANCELLED...WITH WIND CHILL READINGS NOW GENERALLY ABOVE
ASSOCIATED CRITERIA.

A COLD WINTER DAY FEATURING INEFFECTIVE SUNSHINE AS HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON ONLY REACH ZERO TO +10F IN MOST LOCATIONS. LOW-LEVEL
NWLY DOWNSLOPING INTO THE CT RIVER VALLEY WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW
READINGS INTO THE LOWER TEENS THIS AFTN FROM WHITE RIVER JCT TO
SPRINGFIELD. SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS MODERATELY STRONG
BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM SERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NY. WHILE
WE`LL SEE CLEAR/DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE TODAY...N-NW WINDS OF
10-15 MPH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON WIND CHILLS IN THE 10 TO 20
BELOW RANGE (AND LOWER AT SUMMIT LEVEL). SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS
OVERHEAD BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SEE NEARLY CALM
CONDITIONS BY AROUND/JUST AFTER SUNSET. STRATUS LAYER ASSOCIATED
WITH UPSTREAM NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT EWD
INTO OUR NRN NY COUNTIES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. HAVE SHOWN THIS INCREASING CLOUD TREND WHILE KEEPING
CONDITIONS MAINLY CLEAR THRU 7PM ACROSS VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EST SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHRINKS
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
WESTERN SLOPES AS WE STAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW. CLOUDS ACCOMPANY THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH
MINIMUMS RANGING FROM NEGATIVE LOW TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
TO LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THE WAVE LOOKS TO WASH OUT BY SUNDAY MORNING, SO POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS WAVE, A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT SUNDAY MAXES TO BE IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW MOVING UP TO OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW
WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW REACHING SOUTHERN
ZONES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS TRENDING MORE NORTHERN REACH OF
PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVER THE 40N
70W BENCHMARK ON MONDAY. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS WITH CHANCE
REACHING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LIKELY INTO CENTRAL VERMONT
AND ADIRONDACKS. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MODEL RUNS SHOW CONSISTENCY ON
THIS SOLUTION BEFORE CONFIDENCE CAN INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA. PWATS SHOW LEVELS JUST SHY OF THIS
PAST STORM, BUT DRIER AIR AND PERSISTENT DRYING NORTHERLY FLOW
COULD KEEP PRECIP ALOFT...ENDING AS VIRGA FOR AT LEAST THE
BEGINNING OF THIS SYSTEM OR NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUES TO BE FRIGID SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS
RANGING FROM -20F TO -2F AND MONDAY ONLY REACHING -5F TO SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EST SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH
OF NOVA SCOTIA. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN
DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE 20S ON WEDNESDAY. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 06Z SUNDAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME VFR BKN CEILINGS. CONDITIONS CLEAR UP
AFTER 12Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF
REGION. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM 12Z
MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

12Z THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 311757
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1257 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY, ENDING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY, BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCE FOR SNOW MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1255 PM EST SATURDAY...WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN CANCELLED...WITH WIND CHILL READINGS NOW GENERALLY ABOVE
ASSOCIATED CRITERIA.

A COLD WINTER DAY FEATURING INEFFECTIVE SUNSHINE AS HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON ONLY REACH ZERO TO +10F IN MOST LOCATIONS. LOW-LEVEL
NWLY DOWNSLOPING INTO THE CT RIVER VALLEY WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW
READINGS INTO THE LOWER TEENS THIS AFTN FROM WHITE RIVER JCT TO
SPRINGFIELD. SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS MODERATELY STRONG
BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM SERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NY. WHILE
WE`LL SEE CLEAR/DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE TODAY...N-NW WINDS OF
10-15 MPH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON WIND CHILLS IN THE 10 TO 20
BELOW RANGE (AND LOWER AT SUMMIT LEVEL). SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS
OVERHEAD BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SEE NEARLY CALM
CONDITIONS BY AROUND/JUST AFTER SUNSET. STRATUS LAYER ASSOCIATED
WITH UPSTREAM NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT EWD
INTO OUR NRN NY COUNTIES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. HAVE SHOWN THIS INCREASING CLOUD TREND WHILE KEEPING
CONDITIONS MAINLY CLEAR THRU 7PM ACROSS VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EST SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHRINKS
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
WESTERN SLOPES AS WE STAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW. CLOUDS ACCOMPANY THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH
MINIMUMS RANGING FROM NEGATIVE LOW TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
TO LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THE WAVE LOOKS TO WASH OUT BY SUNDAY MORNING, SO POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS WAVE, A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT SUNDAY MAXES TO BE IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW MOVING UP TO OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW
WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW REACHING SOUTHERN
ZONES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS TRENDING MORE NORTHERN REACH OF
PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVER THE 40N
70W BENCHMARK ON MONDAY. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS WITH CHANCE
REACHING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LIKELY INTO CENTRAL VERMONT
AND ADIRONDACKS. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MODEL RUNS SHOW CONSISTENCY ON
THIS SOLUTION BEFORE CONFIDENCE CAN INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA. PWATS SHOW LEVELS JUST SHY OF THIS
PAST STORM, BUT DRIER AIR AND PERSISTENT DRYING NORTHERLY FLOW
COULD KEEP PRECIP ALOFT...ENDING AS VIRGA FOR AT LEAST THE
BEGINNING OF THIS SYSTEM OR NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUES TO BE FRIGID SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS
RANGING FROM -20F TO -2F AND MONDAY ONLY REACHING -5F TO SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EST SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH
OF NOVA SCOTIA. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN
DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE 20S ON WEDNESDAY. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 06Z SUNDAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME VFR BKN CEILINGS. CONDITIONS CLEAR UP
AFTER 12Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF
REGION. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM 12Z
MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

12Z THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 311749
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1249 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY, ENDING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY, BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCE FOR SNOW MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 951 AM EST SATURDAY...WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
CONTINUES THROUGH 1 PM TODAY.

A COLD WINTER DAY FEATURING INEFFECTIVE SUNSHINE AS HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON ONLY REACH ZERO TO +10F IN MOST LOCATIONS. LOW-LEVEL
NWLY DOWNSLOPING INTO THE CT RIVER VALLEY WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW
READINGS INTO THE LOWER TEENS THIS AFTN FROM WHITE RIVER JCT TO
SPRINGFIELD. SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS MODERATELY STRONG
BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM SERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NY. WHILE
WE`LL SEE CLEAR/DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE TODAY...N-NW WINDS OF
10-15 MPH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY LOW WIND CHILL READINGS. WIND
CHILLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING THRESHOLDS THRU
EARLY AFTERNOON. SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD BY EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL SEE NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS BY AROUND/JUST AFTER
SUNSET. WIND CHILLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
THRESHOLDS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. STRATUS LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH
UPSTREAM NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT EWD INTO
OUR NRN NY COUNTIES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
HAVE SHOWN THIS INCREASING CLOUD TREND WHILE KEEPING CONDITIONS
MAINLY CLEAR THRU 7PM ACROSS VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EST SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHRINKS
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
WESTERN SLOPES AS WE STAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW. CLOUDS ACCOMPANY THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH
MINIMUMS RANGING FROM NEGATIVE LOW TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
TO LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THE WAVE LOOKS TO WASH OUT BY SUNDAY MORNING, SO POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS WAVE, A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT SUNDAY MAXES TO BE IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW MOVING UP TO OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW
WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW REACHING SOUTHERN
ZONES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS TRENDING MORE NORTHERN REACH OF
PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVER THE 40N
70W BENCHMARK ON MONDAY. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS WITH CHANCE
REACHING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LIKELY INTO CENTRAL VERMONT
AND ADIRONDACKS. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MODEL RUNS SHOW CONSISTENCY ON
THIS SOLUTION BEFORE CONFIDENCE CAN INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA. PWATS SHOW LEVELS JUST SHY OF THIS
PAST STORM, BUT DRIER AIR AND PERSISTENT DRYING NORTHERLY FLOW
COULD KEEP PRECIP ALOFT...ENDING AS VIRGA FOR AT LEAST THE
BEGINNING OF THIS SYSTEM OR NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUES TO BE FRIGID SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS
RANGING FROM -20F TO -2F AND MONDAY ONLY REACHING -5F TO SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EST SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH
OF NOVA SCOTIA. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN
DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE 20S ON WEDNESDAY. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 06Z SUNDAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME VFR BKN CEILINGS. CONDITIONS CLEAR UP
AFTER 12Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF
REGION. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM 12Z
MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

12Z THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 311749
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1249 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY, ENDING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY, BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCE FOR SNOW MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 951 AM EST SATURDAY...WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
CONTINUES THROUGH 1 PM TODAY.

A COLD WINTER DAY FEATURING INEFFECTIVE SUNSHINE AS HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON ONLY REACH ZERO TO +10F IN MOST LOCATIONS. LOW-LEVEL
NWLY DOWNSLOPING INTO THE CT RIVER VALLEY WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW
READINGS INTO THE LOWER TEENS THIS AFTN FROM WHITE RIVER JCT TO
SPRINGFIELD. SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS MODERATELY STRONG
BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM SERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NY. WHILE
WE`LL SEE CLEAR/DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE TODAY...N-NW WINDS OF
10-15 MPH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY LOW WIND CHILL READINGS. WIND
CHILLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING THRESHOLDS THRU
EARLY AFTERNOON. SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD BY EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL SEE NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS BY AROUND/JUST AFTER
SUNSET. WIND CHILLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
THRESHOLDS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. STRATUS LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH
UPSTREAM NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT EWD INTO
OUR NRN NY COUNTIES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
HAVE SHOWN THIS INCREASING CLOUD TREND WHILE KEEPING CONDITIONS
MAINLY CLEAR THRU 7PM ACROSS VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EST SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHRINKS
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
WESTERN SLOPES AS WE STAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW. CLOUDS ACCOMPANY THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH
MINIMUMS RANGING FROM NEGATIVE LOW TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
TO LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THE WAVE LOOKS TO WASH OUT BY SUNDAY MORNING, SO POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS WAVE, A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT SUNDAY MAXES TO BE IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW MOVING UP TO OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW
WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW REACHING SOUTHERN
ZONES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS TRENDING MORE NORTHERN REACH OF
PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVER THE 40N
70W BENCHMARK ON MONDAY. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS WITH CHANCE
REACHING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LIKELY INTO CENTRAL VERMONT
AND ADIRONDACKS. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MODEL RUNS SHOW CONSISTENCY ON
THIS SOLUTION BEFORE CONFIDENCE CAN INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA. PWATS SHOW LEVELS JUST SHY OF THIS
PAST STORM, BUT DRIER AIR AND PERSISTENT DRYING NORTHERLY FLOW
COULD KEEP PRECIP ALOFT...ENDING AS VIRGA FOR AT LEAST THE
BEGINNING OF THIS SYSTEM OR NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUES TO BE FRIGID SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS
RANGING FROM -20F TO -2F AND MONDAY ONLY REACHING -5F TO SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EST SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH
OF NOVA SCOTIA. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN
DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE 20S ON WEDNESDAY. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 06Z SUNDAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME VFR BKN CEILINGS. CONDITIONS CLEAR UP
AFTER 12Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF
REGION. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM 12Z
MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

12Z THURSDAY-FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KALY 311642
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1142 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN A CLIPPER
LOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1142 AM EST...THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE. STILL...A BITTERLY COLD DAY OUT THERE WITH W TO NW WINDS
10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. WIND CHILLS 10 BELOW
TO 10 ABOVE WILL BE COMMON WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOWER TEENS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT WHERE SOME MID AND UPPER TEENS ARE POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BE IN CONTROL TODAY...RIDGING IN FROM
THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE ANTICYCLONE. THE
WINDS WILL ABATE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...AS A WEAK CLIPPER
APPROACHES.

STORM FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOKS ON TRACK...AND A WINTER
STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR MOST OF THE FCST AREA EXCEPT FOR
HAMILTON...NRN WARREN...NRN WASHINGTON...AND NRN HERKIMER
COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...

FOR TONIGHT...A FAST MOVING MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO RACE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FA WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 5 BELOW
ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE 10 ABOVE ZERO SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND IN
THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WE ARE EXPECTING A DRY DAY.
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SO
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER THAN
SATURDAY...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE
LOWER TEENS NORTHWEST TO UPPER 20S SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE FA EXCLUDING
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A PROGRESSIVE
TYPE SYSTEM AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS NEUTRAL POSITIVELY
TILTED UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS WELL OFF THE COAST. THE SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE GOOD OVERRUNNING AS
THERE IS PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DECENT FRONTOGENESIS AT H7
BTWN 12Z AND 18Z ON MONDAY. IN THE WATCH AREA 7 INCHES OR MORE OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER AS WITH SO MANY STORMS THIS WINTER
THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF ON THE NORTHERN EDGE...THUS THE
REASON THAT THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WERE LEFT OUT OF THE WATCH AT
THIS TIME. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15
BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE MID TEENS SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO AROUND 20 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY/S STORM SYSTEM...THE
COMBINATION OF POTENTIALLY DEEP FRESH SNOW COVER...DECREASING
WIND...AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET LATER AT
NIGHT WELL BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS...WITH MANY MIN TEMPS POSSIBLY
DIPPING INTO THE -10 TO -20 F RANGE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AT THAT TIME...SO
WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ACTUAL AIR TEMPS. AFTER THE
BRUTALLY COLD START...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. MAX TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD EVENTUALLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-THU...A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME
WARM ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUE NT INTO EARLY
WED...ESP ACROSS NW AREAS. THEN...ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE WED OR
EARLY THU...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN VT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BY LATE
THU. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL MODERATE A BIT IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH WED MAX
TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING AROUND OR JUST OVER 30 IN VALLEYS...WITH
MAINLY MID/UPPER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS TUE
NT/WED AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST AREAS...WITH
SOME SUBZERO MINS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
THE LAKE GEORGE REGION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MIN TEMPS OCCUR EARLY
TUE EVE...THEN RISE LATER AT NIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. WED NT/THU AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON THU...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S...BUT MAY FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

THU NT-FRI...GENERALLY COLD AND DRY. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO IN MOST AREAS...AND WITH SOME LINGERING WIND...WIND CHILL
VALUES MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MANY AREAS...AND POSSIBLY
WARNING LEVELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI MAX
TEMPS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS...AND SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE STRENGTHENING WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND COAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH TODAY...WITH JUST A FEW STRATOCU CLOUDS AROUND BY LATE
IN THE DAY. STRATOCU CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE SAT EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 07Z/SUN AT
KPSF. ELSEWHERE...MOST CIGS WILL BE IN THE 3500-4500 FT AGL
RANGE...BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP
AT KALB AND KGFL TOWARD 12Z/SUN.

WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT TODAY...WITH SOME
GUSTS OCCASIONALLY REACHING UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES. WEST WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO UNDER 10 KT AROUND SUNSET AND SHOULD CONTINUE LIGHT
FROM THE WEST LATER SAT NT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY WITH MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. ANY
CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE STORM WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT
ON THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KALY 311642
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1142 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN A CLIPPER
LOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1142 AM EST...THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE. STILL...A BITTERLY COLD DAY OUT THERE WITH W TO NW WINDS
10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. WIND CHILLS 10 BELOW
TO 10 ABOVE WILL BE COMMON WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOWER TEENS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT WHERE SOME MID AND UPPER TEENS ARE POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BE IN CONTROL TODAY...RIDGING IN FROM
THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE ANTICYCLONE. THE
WINDS WILL ABATE IN THE MID TO LATE PM...AS A WEAK CLIPPER
APPROACHES.

STORM FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOKS ON TRACK...AND A WINTER
STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR MOST OF THE FCST AREA EXCEPT FOR
HAMILTON...NRN WARREN...NRN WASHINGTON...AND NRN HERKIMER
COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...

FOR TONIGHT...A FAST MOVING MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO RACE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FA WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 5 BELOW
ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE 10 ABOVE ZERO SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND IN
THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WE ARE EXPECTING A DRY DAY.
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SO
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER THAN
SATURDAY...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE
LOWER TEENS NORTHWEST TO UPPER 20S SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE FA EXCLUDING
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A PROGRESSIVE
TYPE SYSTEM AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS NEUTRAL POSITIVELY
TILTED UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS WELL OFF THE COAST. THE SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE GOOD OVERRUNNING AS
THERE IS PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DECENT FRONTOGENESIS AT H7
BTWN 12Z AND 18Z ON MONDAY. IN THE WATCH AREA 7 INCHES OR MORE OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER AS WITH SO MANY STORMS THIS WINTER
THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF ON THE NORTHERN EDGE...THUS THE
REASON THAT THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WERE LEFT OUT OF THE WATCH AT
THIS TIME. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15
BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE MID TEENS SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO AROUND 20 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY/S STORM SYSTEM...THE
COMBINATION OF POTENTIALLY DEEP FRESH SNOW COVER...DECREASING
WIND...AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET LATER AT
NIGHT WELL BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS...WITH MANY MIN TEMPS POSSIBLY
DIPPING INTO THE -10 TO -20 F RANGE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AT THAT TIME...SO
WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ACTUAL AIR TEMPS. AFTER THE
BRUTALLY COLD START...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. MAX TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD EVENTUALLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-THU...A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME
WARM ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUE NT INTO EARLY
WED...ESP ACROSS NW AREAS. THEN...ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE WED OR
EARLY THU...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN VT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BY LATE
THU. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL MODERATE A BIT IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH WED MAX
TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING AROUND OR JUST OVER 30 IN VALLEYS...WITH
MAINLY MID/UPPER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS TUE
NT/WED AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST AREAS...WITH
SOME SUBZERO MINS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
THE LAKE GEORGE REGION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MIN TEMPS OCCUR EARLY
TUE EVE...THEN RISE LATER AT NIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. WED NT/THU AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON THU...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S...BUT MAY FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

THU NT-FRI...GENERALLY COLD AND DRY. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO IN MOST AREAS...AND WITH SOME LINGERING WIND...WIND CHILL
VALUES MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MANY AREAS...AND POSSIBLY
WARNING LEVELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI MAX
TEMPS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS...AND SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE STRENGTHENING WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND COAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH TODAY...WITH JUST A FEW STRATOCU CLOUDS AROUND BY LATE
IN THE DAY. STRATOCU CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE SAT EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 07Z/SUN AT
KPSF. ELSEWHERE...MOST CIGS WILL BE IN THE 3500-4500 FT AGL
RANGE...BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP
AT KALB AND KGFL TOWARD 12Z/SUN.

WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT TODAY...WITH SOME
GUSTS OCCASIONALLY REACHING UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES. WEST WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO UNDER 10 KT AROUND SUNSET AND SHOULD CONTINUE LIGHT
FROM THE WEST LATER SAT NT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY WITH MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. ANY
CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE STORM WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT
ON THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KBTV 311503
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1003 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY, ENDING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY, BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCE FOR SNOW MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 951 AM EST SATURDAY...WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
CONTINUES THROUGH 1 PM TODAY.

A COLD WINTER DAY FEATURING INEFFECTIVE SUNSHINE AS HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON ONLY REACH ZERO TO +10F IN MOST LOCATIONS. LOW-LEVEL
NWLY DOWNSLOPING INTO THE CT RIVER VALLEY WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW
READINGS INTO THE LOWER TEENS THIS AFTN FROM WHITE RIVER JCT TO
SPRINGFIELD. SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS MODERATELY STRONG
BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM SERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NY. WHILE
WE`LL SEE CLEAR/DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE TODAY...N-NW WINDS OF
10-15 MPH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY LOW WIND CHILL READINGS. WIND CHILLS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING THRESHOLDS THRU EARLY
AFTERNOON. SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD BY EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL SEE NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS BY AROUND/JUST AFTER
SUNSET. WIND CHILLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
THRESHOLDS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. STRATUS LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH
UPSTREAM NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT EWD
INTO OUR NRN NY COUNTIES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. HAVE SHOWN THIS INCREASING CLOUD TREND WHILE KEEPING
CONDITIONS MAINLY CLEAR THRU 7PM ACROSS VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EST SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHRINKS
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
WESTERN SLOPES AS WE STAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW. CLOUDS ACCOMPANY THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH
MINIMUMS RANGING FROM NEGATIVE LOW TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
TO LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THE WAVE LOOKS TO WASH OUT BY SUNDAY MORNING, SO POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS WAVE, A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT SUNDAY MAXES TO BE IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW MOVING UP TO OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW
WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW REACHING SOUTHERN
ZONES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS TRENDING MORE NORTHERN REACH OF
PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVER THE 40N
70W BENCHMARK ON MONDAY. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS WITH CHANCE
REACHING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LIKELY INTO CENTRAL VERMONT
AND ADIRONDACKS. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MODEL RUNS SHOW CONSISTENCY ON
THIS SOLUTION BEFORE CONFIDENCE CAN INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA. PWATS SHOW LEVELS JUST SHY OF THIS
PAST STORM, BUT DRIER AIR AND PERSISTENT DRYING NORTHERLY FLOW
COULD KEEP PRECIP ALOFT...ENDING AS VIRGA FOR AT LEAST THE
BEGINNING OF THIS SYSTEM OR NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUES TO BE FRIGID SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS
RANGING FROM -20F TO -2F AND MONDAY ONLY REACHING -5F TO SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EST SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH
OF NOVA SCOTIA. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN
DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE 20S ON WEDNESDAY. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT
ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...
MAINLY AFTER 06Z SUNDAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW
SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF
REGION. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM 12Z
MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ026-
     027-029>031-034-087.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-
     035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 311503
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1003 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY, ENDING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY, BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCE FOR SNOW MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 951 AM EST SATURDAY...WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
CONTINUES THROUGH 1 PM TODAY.

A COLD WINTER DAY FEATURING INEFFECTIVE SUNSHINE AS HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON ONLY REACH ZERO TO +10F IN MOST LOCATIONS. LOW-LEVEL
NWLY DOWNSLOPING INTO THE CT RIVER VALLEY WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW
READINGS INTO THE LOWER TEENS THIS AFTN FROM WHITE RIVER JCT TO
SPRINGFIELD. SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS MODERATELY STRONG
BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM SERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NY. WHILE
WE`LL SEE CLEAR/DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE TODAY...N-NW WINDS OF
10-15 MPH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY LOW WIND CHILL READINGS. WIND CHILLS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING THRESHOLDS THRU EARLY
AFTERNOON. SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD BY EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL SEE NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS BY AROUND/JUST AFTER
SUNSET. WIND CHILLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
THRESHOLDS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. STRATUS LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH
UPSTREAM NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT EWD
INTO OUR NRN NY COUNTIES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. HAVE SHOWN THIS INCREASING CLOUD TREND WHILE KEEPING
CONDITIONS MAINLY CLEAR THRU 7PM ACROSS VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EST SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHRINKS
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
WESTERN SLOPES AS WE STAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW. CLOUDS ACCOMPANY THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH
MINIMUMS RANGING FROM NEGATIVE LOW TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
TO LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THE WAVE LOOKS TO WASH OUT BY SUNDAY MORNING, SO POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS WAVE, A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT SUNDAY MAXES TO BE IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW MOVING UP TO OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW
WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW REACHING SOUTHERN
ZONES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS TRENDING MORE NORTHERN REACH OF
PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVER THE 40N
70W BENCHMARK ON MONDAY. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS WITH CHANCE
REACHING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LIKELY INTO CENTRAL VERMONT
AND ADIRONDACKS. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MODEL RUNS SHOW CONSISTENCY ON
THIS SOLUTION BEFORE CONFIDENCE CAN INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA. PWATS SHOW LEVELS JUST SHY OF THIS
PAST STORM, BUT DRIER AIR AND PERSISTENT DRYING NORTHERLY FLOW
COULD KEEP PRECIP ALOFT...ENDING AS VIRGA FOR AT LEAST THE
BEGINNING OF THIS SYSTEM OR NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUES TO BE FRIGID SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS
RANGING FROM -20F TO -2F AND MONDAY ONLY REACHING -5F TO SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EST SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH
OF NOVA SCOTIA. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN
DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE 20S ON WEDNESDAY. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT
ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...
MAINLY AFTER 06Z SUNDAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW
SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF
REGION. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM 12Z
MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ026-
     027-029>031-034-087.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-
     035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 311503
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1003 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY, ENDING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY, BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCE FOR SNOW MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 951 AM EST SATURDAY...WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
CONTINUES THROUGH 1 PM TODAY.

A COLD WINTER DAY FEATURING INEFFECTIVE SUNSHINE AS HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON ONLY REACH ZERO TO +10F IN MOST LOCATIONS. LOW-LEVEL
NWLY DOWNSLOPING INTO THE CT RIVER VALLEY WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW
READINGS INTO THE LOWER TEENS THIS AFTN FROM WHITE RIVER JCT TO
SPRINGFIELD. SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS MODERATELY STRONG
BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM SERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NY. WHILE
WE`LL SEE CLEAR/DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE TODAY...N-NW WINDS OF
10-15 MPH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY LOW WIND CHILL READINGS. WIND CHILLS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING THRESHOLDS THRU EARLY
AFTERNOON. SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD BY EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL SEE NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS BY AROUND/JUST AFTER
SUNSET. WIND CHILLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
THRESHOLDS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. STRATUS LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH
UPSTREAM NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT EWD
INTO OUR NRN NY COUNTIES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. HAVE SHOWN THIS INCREASING CLOUD TREND WHILE KEEPING
CONDITIONS MAINLY CLEAR THRU 7PM ACROSS VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EST SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHRINKS
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
WESTERN SLOPES AS WE STAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW. CLOUDS ACCOMPANY THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH
MINIMUMS RANGING FROM NEGATIVE LOW TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
TO LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THE WAVE LOOKS TO WASH OUT BY SUNDAY MORNING, SO POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS WAVE, A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT SUNDAY MAXES TO BE IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW MOVING UP TO OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW
WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW REACHING SOUTHERN
ZONES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS TRENDING MORE NORTHERN REACH OF
PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVER THE 40N
70W BENCHMARK ON MONDAY. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS WITH CHANCE
REACHING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LIKELY INTO CENTRAL VERMONT
AND ADIRONDACKS. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MODEL RUNS SHOW CONSISTENCY ON
THIS SOLUTION BEFORE CONFIDENCE CAN INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA. PWATS SHOW LEVELS JUST SHY OF THIS
PAST STORM, BUT DRIER AIR AND PERSISTENT DRYING NORTHERLY FLOW
COULD KEEP PRECIP ALOFT...ENDING AS VIRGA FOR AT LEAST THE
BEGINNING OF THIS SYSTEM OR NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUES TO BE FRIGID SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS
RANGING FROM -20F TO -2F AND MONDAY ONLY REACHING -5F TO SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EST SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH
OF NOVA SCOTIA. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN
DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE 20S ON WEDNESDAY. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT
ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...
MAINLY AFTER 06Z SUNDAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW
SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF
REGION. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM 12Z
MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ026-
     027-029>031-034-087.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-
     035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 311503
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1003 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY, ENDING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY, BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCE FOR SNOW MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 951 AM EST SATURDAY...WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
CONTINUES THROUGH 1 PM TODAY.

A COLD WINTER DAY FEATURING INEFFECTIVE SUNSHINE AS HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON ONLY REACH ZERO TO +10F IN MOST LOCATIONS. LOW-LEVEL
NWLY DOWNSLOPING INTO THE CT RIVER VALLEY WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW
READINGS INTO THE LOWER TEENS THIS AFTN FROM WHITE RIVER JCT TO
SPRINGFIELD. SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS MODERATELY STRONG
BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM SERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NY. WHILE
WE`LL SEE CLEAR/DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE TODAY...N-NW WINDS OF
10-15 MPH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY LOW WIND CHILL READINGS. WIND CHILLS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING THRESHOLDS THRU EARLY
AFTERNOON. SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD BY EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL SEE NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS BY AROUND/JUST AFTER
SUNSET. WIND CHILLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
THRESHOLDS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. STRATUS LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH
UPSTREAM NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT EWD
INTO OUR NRN NY COUNTIES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. HAVE SHOWN THIS INCREASING CLOUD TREND WHILE KEEPING
CONDITIONS MAINLY CLEAR THRU 7PM ACROSS VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EST SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHRINKS
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
WESTERN SLOPES AS WE STAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW. CLOUDS ACCOMPANY THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH
MINIMUMS RANGING FROM NEGATIVE LOW TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
TO LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THE WAVE LOOKS TO WASH OUT BY SUNDAY MORNING, SO POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS WAVE, A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT SUNDAY MAXES TO BE IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW MOVING UP TO OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW
WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW REACHING SOUTHERN
ZONES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS TRENDING MORE NORTHERN REACH OF
PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVER THE 40N
70W BENCHMARK ON MONDAY. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS WITH CHANCE
REACHING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LIKELY INTO CENTRAL VERMONT
AND ADIRONDACKS. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MODEL RUNS SHOW CONSISTENCY ON
THIS SOLUTION BEFORE CONFIDENCE CAN INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA. PWATS SHOW LEVELS JUST SHY OF THIS
PAST STORM, BUT DRIER AIR AND PERSISTENT DRYING NORTHERLY FLOW
COULD KEEP PRECIP ALOFT...ENDING AS VIRGA FOR AT LEAST THE
BEGINNING OF THIS SYSTEM OR NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUES TO BE FRIGID SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS
RANGING FROM -20F TO -2F AND MONDAY ONLY REACHING -5F TO SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EST SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH
OF NOVA SCOTIA. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN
DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE 20S ON WEDNESDAY. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT
ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...
MAINLY AFTER 06Z SUNDAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW
SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF
REGION. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM 12Z
MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ026-
     027-029>031-034-087.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-
     035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/NEILES



000
FXUS61 KALY 311450
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
950 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD
WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL
OF OUR WEATHER TO START THE WEEKEND...THEN A CLIPPER LOW SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
     A WIND CHILL WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING FOR
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...

     A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE REST OF THE FCST AREA
EXCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS UNTIL 11 AM
THIS MORNING...

AS OF 940 AM EST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM 10F TO
10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WIND CHILLS ARE STILL
FLIRTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS. WE WILL KEEP THE HEADLINES UP
UNTIL 11 AM. PLEASE SEE OUR PUBLIC INFO STATEMENT WITH LOWS TEMPS
AND WIND CHILL READINGS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY BY THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES AND VERY
COLD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 15 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. OVERALL...DOWNRIGHT FRIGID CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...AND
PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES. TEENS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE REST OF THE
FCST AREA. THE WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...

FOR TONIGHT...A FAST MOVING MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO RACE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FA WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 5 BELOW
ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE 10 ABOVE ZERO SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND IN
THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WE ARE EXPECTING A DRY DAY.
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SO
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER THAN
SATURDAY...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE
LOWER TEENS NORTHWEST TO UPPER 20S SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE FA EXCLUDING
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A PROGRESSIVE
TYPE SYSTEM AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS NEUTRAL POSITIVELY
TILTED UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS WELL OFF THE COAST. THE SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE GOOD OVERRUNNING AS
THERE IS PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DECENT FRONTOGENESIS AT H7
BTWN 12Z AND 18Z ON MONDAY. IN THE WATCH AREA 7 INCHES OR MORE OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER AS WITH SO MANY STORMS THIS WINTER
THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF ON THE NORTHERN EDGE...THUS THE
REASON THAT THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WERE LEFT OUT OF THE WATCH AT
THIS TIME. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15
BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE MID TEENS SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO AROUND 20 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY/S STORM SYSTEM...THE
COMBINATION OF POTENTIALLY DEEP FRESH SNOW COVER...DECREASING
WIND...AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET LATER AT
NIGHT WELL BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS...WITH MANY MIN TEMPS POSSIBLY
DIPPING INTO THE -10 TO -20 F RANGE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AT THAT TIME...SO
WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ACTUAL AIR TEMPS. AFTER THE
BRUTALLY COLD START...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. MAX TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD EVENTUALLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-THU...A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME
WARM ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUE NT INTO EARLY
WED...ESP ACROSS NW AREAS. THEN...ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE WED OR
EARLY THU...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN VT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BY LATE
THU. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL MODERATE A BIT IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH WED MAX
TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING AROUND OR JUST OVER 30 IN VALLEYS...WITH
MAINLY MID/UPPER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS TUE
NT/WED AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST AREAS...WITH
SOME SUBZERO MINS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
THE LAKE GEORGE REGION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MIN TEMPS OCCUR EARLY
TUE EVE...THEN RISE LATER AT NIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. WED NT/THU AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON THU...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S...BUT MAY FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

THU NT-FRI...GENERALLY COLD AND DRY. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO IN MOST AREAS...AND WITH SOME LINGERING WIND...WIND CHILL
VALUES MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MANY AREAS...AND POSSIBLY
WARNING LEVELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI MAX
TEMPS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS...AND SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE STRENGTHENING WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND COAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH TODAY...WITH JUST A FEW STRATOCU CLOUDS AROUND BY LATE
IN THE DAY. STRATOCU CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE SAT EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 07Z/SUN AT
KPSF. ELSEWHERE...MOST CIGS WILL BE IN THE 3500-4500 FT AGL
RANGE...BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP
AT KALB AND KGFL TOWARD 12Z/SUN.

WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT TODAY...WITH SOME
GUSTS OCCASIONALLY REACHING UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES. WEST WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO UNDER 10 KT AROUND SUNSET AND SHOULD CONTINUE LIGHT
FROM THE WEST LATER SAT NT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY WITH MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. ANY
CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE STORM WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT
ON THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KALY 311450
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
950 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD
WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL
OF OUR WEATHER TO START THE WEEKEND...THEN A CLIPPER LOW SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
     A WIND CHILL WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING FOR
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...

     A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE REST OF THE FCST AREA
EXCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS UNTIL 11 AM
THIS MORNING...

AS OF 940 AM EST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM 10F TO
10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WIND CHILLS ARE STILL
FLIRTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS. WE WILL KEEP THE HEADLINES UP
UNTIL 11 AM. PLEASE SEE OUR PUBLIC INFO STATEMENT WITH LOWS TEMPS
AND WIND CHILL READINGS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY BY THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES AND VERY
COLD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 15 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. OVERALL...DOWNRIGHT FRIGID CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...AND
PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES. TEENS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE REST OF THE
FCST AREA. THE WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...

FOR TONIGHT...A FAST MOVING MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO RACE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FA WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 5 BELOW
ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE 10 ABOVE ZERO SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND IN
THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WE ARE EXPECTING A DRY DAY.
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SO
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER THAN
SATURDAY...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE
LOWER TEENS NORTHWEST TO UPPER 20S SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE FA EXCLUDING
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A PROGRESSIVE
TYPE SYSTEM AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS NEUTRAL POSITIVELY
TILTED UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS WELL OFF THE COAST. THE SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE GOOD OVERRUNNING AS
THERE IS PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DECENT FRONTOGENESIS AT H7
BTWN 12Z AND 18Z ON MONDAY. IN THE WATCH AREA 7 INCHES OR MORE OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER AS WITH SO MANY STORMS THIS WINTER
THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF ON THE NORTHERN EDGE...THUS THE
REASON THAT THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WERE LEFT OUT OF THE WATCH AT
THIS TIME. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15
BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE MID TEENS SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO AROUND 20 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY/S STORM SYSTEM...THE
COMBINATION OF POTENTIALLY DEEP FRESH SNOW COVER...DECREASING
WIND...AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET LATER AT
NIGHT WELL BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS...WITH MANY MIN TEMPS POSSIBLY
DIPPING INTO THE -10 TO -20 F RANGE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AT THAT TIME...SO
WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ACTUAL AIR TEMPS. AFTER THE
BRUTALLY COLD START...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. MAX TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD EVENTUALLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-THU...A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME
WARM ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUE NT INTO EARLY
WED...ESP ACROSS NW AREAS. THEN...ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE WED OR
EARLY THU...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN VT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BY LATE
THU. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL MODERATE A BIT IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH WED MAX
TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING AROUND OR JUST OVER 30 IN VALLEYS...WITH
MAINLY MID/UPPER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS TUE
NT/WED AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST AREAS...WITH
SOME SUBZERO MINS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
THE LAKE GEORGE REGION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MIN TEMPS OCCUR EARLY
TUE EVE...THEN RISE LATER AT NIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. WED NT/THU AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON THU...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S...BUT MAY FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

THU NT-FRI...GENERALLY COLD AND DRY. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO IN MOST AREAS...AND WITH SOME LINGERING WIND...WIND CHILL
VALUES MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MANY AREAS...AND POSSIBLY
WARNING LEVELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI MAX
TEMPS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS...AND SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE STRENGTHENING WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND COAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH TODAY...WITH JUST A FEW STRATOCU CLOUDS AROUND BY LATE
IN THE DAY. STRATOCU CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE SAT EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 07Z/SUN AT
KPSF. ELSEWHERE...MOST CIGS WILL BE IN THE 3500-4500 FT AGL
RANGE...BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP
AT KALB AND KGFL TOWARD 12Z/SUN.

WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT TODAY...WITH SOME
GUSTS OCCASIONALLY REACHING UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES. WEST WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO UNDER 10 KT AROUND SUNSET AND SHOULD CONTINUE LIGHT
FROM THE WEST LATER SAT NT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY WITH MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. ANY
CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE STORM WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT
ON THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KALY 311450
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
950 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD
WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL
OF OUR WEATHER TO START THE WEEKEND...THEN A CLIPPER LOW SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
     A WIND CHILL WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING FOR
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...

     A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE REST OF THE FCST AREA
EXCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS UNTIL 11 AM
THIS MORNING...

AS OF 940 AM EST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM 10F TO
10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WIND CHILLS ARE STILL
FLIRTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS. WE WILL KEEP THE HEADLINES UP
UNTIL 11 AM. PLEASE SEE OUR PUBLIC INFO STATEMENT WITH LOWS TEMPS
AND WIND CHILL READINGS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY BY THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES AND VERY
COLD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 15 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. OVERALL...DOWNRIGHT FRIGID CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...AND
PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES. TEENS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE REST OF THE
FCST AREA. THE WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...

FOR TONIGHT...A FAST MOVING MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO RACE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FA WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 5 BELOW
ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE 10 ABOVE ZERO SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND IN
THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WE ARE EXPECTING A DRY DAY.
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SO
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER THAN
SATURDAY...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE
LOWER TEENS NORTHWEST TO UPPER 20S SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE FA EXCLUDING
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A PROGRESSIVE
TYPE SYSTEM AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS NEUTRAL POSITIVELY
TILTED UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS WELL OFF THE COAST. THE SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE GOOD OVERRUNNING AS
THERE IS PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DECENT FRONTOGENESIS AT H7
BTWN 12Z AND 18Z ON MONDAY. IN THE WATCH AREA 7 INCHES OR MORE OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER AS WITH SO MANY STORMS THIS WINTER
THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF ON THE NORTHERN EDGE...THUS THE
REASON THAT THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WERE LEFT OUT OF THE WATCH AT
THIS TIME. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15
BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE MID TEENS SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO AROUND 20 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY/S STORM SYSTEM...THE
COMBINATION OF POTENTIALLY DEEP FRESH SNOW COVER...DECREASING
WIND...AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET LATER AT
NIGHT WELL BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS...WITH MANY MIN TEMPS POSSIBLY
DIPPING INTO THE -10 TO -20 F RANGE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AT THAT TIME...SO
WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ACTUAL AIR TEMPS. AFTER THE
BRUTALLY COLD START...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. MAX TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD EVENTUALLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-THU...A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME
WARM ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUE NT INTO EARLY
WED...ESP ACROSS NW AREAS. THEN...ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE WED OR
EARLY THU...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN VT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BY LATE
THU. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL MODERATE A BIT IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH WED MAX
TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING AROUND OR JUST OVER 30 IN VALLEYS...WITH
MAINLY MID/UPPER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS TUE
NT/WED AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST AREAS...WITH
SOME SUBZERO MINS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
THE LAKE GEORGE REGION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MIN TEMPS OCCUR EARLY
TUE EVE...THEN RISE LATER AT NIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. WED NT/THU AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON THU...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S...BUT MAY FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

THU NT-FRI...GENERALLY COLD AND DRY. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO IN MOST AREAS...AND WITH SOME LINGERING WIND...WIND CHILL
VALUES MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MANY AREAS...AND POSSIBLY
WARNING LEVELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI MAX
TEMPS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS...AND SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE STRENGTHENING WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND COAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH TODAY...WITH JUST A FEW STRATOCU CLOUDS AROUND BY LATE
IN THE DAY. STRATOCU CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE SAT EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 07Z/SUN AT
KPSF. ELSEWHERE...MOST CIGS WILL BE IN THE 3500-4500 FT AGL
RANGE...BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP
AT KALB AND KGFL TOWARD 12Z/SUN.

WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT TODAY...WITH SOME
GUSTS OCCASIONALLY REACHING UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES. WEST WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO UNDER 10 KT AROUND SUNSET AND SHOULD CONTINUE LIGHT
FROM THE WEST LATER SAT NT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY WITH MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. ANY
CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE STORM WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT
ON THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KALY 311450
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
950 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD
WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL
OF OUR WEATHER TO START THE WEEKEND...THEN A CLIPPER LOW SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
     A WIND CHILL WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING FOR
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...

     A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE REST OF THE FCST AREA
EXCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS UNTIL 11 AM
THIS MORNING...

AS OF 940 AM EST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM 10F TO
10 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WIND CHILLS ARE STILL
FLIRTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS. WE WILL KEEP THE HEADLINES UP
UNTIL 11 AM. PLEASE SEE OUR PUBLIC INFO STATEMENT WITH LOWS TEMPS
AND WIND CHILL READINGS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY BY THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES AND VERY
COLD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 15 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. OVERALL...DOWNRIGHT FRIGID CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...AND
PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES. TEENS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE REST OF THE
FCST AREA. THE WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...

FOR TONIGHT...A FAST MOVING MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO RACE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FA WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 5 BELOW
ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE 10 ABOVE ZERO SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND IN
THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WE ARE EXPECTING A DRY DAY.
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SO
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER THAN
SATURDAY...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE
LOWER TEENS NORTHWEST TO UPPER 20S SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE FA EXCLUDING
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A PROGRESSIVE
TYPE SYSTEM AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS NEUTRAL POSITIVELY
TILTED UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS WELL OFF THE COAST. THE SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE GOOD OVERRUNNING AS
THERE IS PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DECENT FRONTOGENESIS AT H7
BTWN 12Z AND 18Z ON MONDAY. IN THE WATCH AREA 7 INCHES OR MORE OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER AS WITH SO MANY STORMS THIS WINTER
THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF ON THE NORTHERN EDGE...THUS THE
REASON THAT THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WERE LEFT OUT OF THE WATCH AT
THIS TIME. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15
BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE MID TEENS SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO AROUND 20 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY/S STORM SYSTEM...THE
COMBINATION OF POTENTIALLY DEEP FRESH SNOW COVER...DECREASING
WIND...AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET LATER AT
NIGHT WELL BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS...WITH MANY MIN TEMPS POSSIBLY
DIPPING INTO THE -10 TO -20 F RANGE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AT THAT TIME...SO
WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ACTUAL AIR TEMPS. AFTER THE
BRUTALLY COLD START...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. MAX TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD EVENTUALLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-THU...A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME
WARM ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUE NT INTO EARLY
WED...ESP ACROSS NW AREAS. THEN...ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE WED OR
EARLY THU...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN VT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BY LATE
THU. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL MODERATE A BIT IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH WED MAX
TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING AROUND OR JUST OVER 30 IN VALLEYS...WITH
MAINLY MID/UPPER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS TUE
NT/WED AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST AREAS...WITH
SOME SUBZERO MINS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
THE LAKE GEORGE REGION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MIN TEMPS OCCUR EARLY
TUE EVE...THEN RISE LATER AT NIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. WED NT/THU AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON THU...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S...BUT MAY FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

THU NT-FRI...GENERALLY COLD AND DRY. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO IN MOST AREAS...AND WITH SOME LINGERING WIND...WIND CHILL
VALUES MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MANY AREAS...AND POSSIBLY
WARNING LEVELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI MAX
TEMPS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS...AND SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE STRENGTHENING WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND COAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH TODAY...WITH JUST A FEW STRATOCU CLOUDS AROUND BY LATE
IN THE DAY. STRATOCU CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE SAT EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 07Z/SUN AT
KPSF. ELSEWHERE...MOST CIGS WILL BE IN THE 3500-4500 FT AGL
RANGE...BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP
AT KALB AND KGFL TOWARD 12Z/SUN.

WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT TODAY...WITH SOME
GUSTS OCCASIONALLY REACHING UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES. WEST WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO UNDER 10 KT AROUND SUNSET AND SHOULD CONTINUE LIGHT
FROM THE WEST LATER SAT NT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY WITH MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. ANY
CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE STORM WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT
ON THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KBTV 311217
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
717 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY, ENDING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY, BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCE FOR SNOW MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 608 AM EST SATURDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORY
CONTINUES THROUGH 1 PM TODAY.

THOUGH DIFFICULT TO TELL ON IR SATELLITE, IT APPEARS CLEARING HAS
SPREAD ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, ADIRONDACKS AND THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH EXCEPTION OF LAKE CLOUDS INDUCED BY THE WARM
LAKE...VERY WARM COMPARED TO THE AIR. 33 DEGREES LAKE TEMPERATURE
VS -5 CURRENTLY AT BTV. A FEW OTHER SPOTS HAVE CLEARED AND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL THIS MORNING, AIDED BY COLD AIR
ADVECTION EVIDENT IN THE BACKING WIND PROFILES. WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 5-15KTS, WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS HAVE BEEN -20 DEGREES
AND COLDER. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES
STARTING SO COLD, IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR TEMPERATURES AND
THEREFORE WIND CHILLS TO WARM THIS MORNING. BUT WITH MORE
SUNSHINE, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE WIND CHILL CRITERIA
AROUND NOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS CLEARING HAS
SETTLED IN, WHILE NORTHWEST FLOW AND SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW HAVE
KEPT THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOST PLACES EASTWARD OVERCAST. AS THE
NEGATIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWING EASTWARD,
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY. THIS WILL HELP CLOUD COVER TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND FROM SUB-ZERO, BUT NOT BY MUCH. 850MB AND
925MB TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE -20C TO -15C, WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING 0 TO 15 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERN VALLEYS WILL SEE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY.

PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER VT MOST OF THE DAY,
KEEPING WINDS AROUND 8-18KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25KTS AND LIGHTER
AMOUNTS WESTWARD, CLOSER TO THE SURFACE HIGH/RIDGING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EST SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHRINKS
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
WESTERN SLOPES AS WE STAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW. CLOUDS ACCOMPANY THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH
MINIMUMS RANGING FROM NEGATIVE LOW TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
TO LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THE WAVE LOOKS TO WASH OUT BY SUNDAY MORNING, SO POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS WAVE, A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT SUNDAY MAXES TO BE IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW MOVING UP TO OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW
WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW REACHING SOUTHERN
ZONES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS TRENDING MORE NORTHERN REACH OF
PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVER THE 40N
70W BENCHMARK ON MONDAY. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS WITH CHANCE
REACHING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LIKELY INTO CENTRAL VERMONT
AND ADIRONDACKS. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MODEL RUNS SHOW CONSISTENCY ON
THIS SOLUTION BEFORE CONFIDENCE CAN INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA. PWATS SHOW LEVELS JUST SHY OF THIS
PAST STORM, BUT DRIER AIR AND PERSISTENT DRYING NORTHERLY FLOW
COULD KEEP PRECIP ALOFT...ENDING AS VIRGA FOR AT LEAST THE
BEGINNING OF THIS SYSTEM OR NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUES TO BE FRIGID SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS
RANGING FROM -20F TO -2F AND MONDAY ONLY REACHING -5F TO SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EST SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH
OF NOVA SCOTIA. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN
DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE 20S ON WEDNESDAY. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT
ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...
MAINLY AFTER 06Z SUNDAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW
SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF
REGION. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM 12Z
MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ026-
     027-029>031-034-087.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-
     035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 311217
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
717 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY, ENDING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY, BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCE FOR SNOW MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 608 AM EST SATURDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORY
CONTINUES THROUGH 1 PM TODAY.

THOUGH DIFFICULT TO TELL ON IR SATELLITE, IT APPEARS CLEARING HAS
SPREAD ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, ADIRONDACKS AND THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH EXCEPTION OF LAKE CLOUDS INDUCED BY THE WARM
LAKE...VERY WARM COMPARED TO THE AIR. 33 DEGREES LAKE TEMPERATURE
VS -5 CURRENTLY AT BTV. A FEW OTHER SPOTS HAVE CLEARED AND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL THIS MORNING, AIDED BY COLD AIR
ADVECTION EVIDENT IN THE BACKING WIND PROFILES. WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 5-15KTS, WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS HAVE BEEN -20 DEGREES
AND COLDER. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES
STARTING SO COLD, IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR TEMPERATURES AND
THEREFORE WIND CHILLS TO WARM THIS MORNING. BUT WITH MORE
SUNSHINE, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE WIND CHILL CRITERIA
AROUND NOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS CLEARING HAS
SETTLED IN, WHILE NORTHWEST FLOW AND SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW HAVE
KEPT THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOST PLACES EASTWARD OVERCAST. AS THE
NEGATIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWING EASTWARD,
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY. THIS WILL HELP CLOUD COVER TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND FROM SUB-ZERO, BUT NOT BY MUCH. 850MB AND
925MB TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE -20C TO -15C, WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING 0 TO 15 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERN VALLEYS WILL SEE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY.

PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER VT MOST OF THE DAY,
KEEPING WINDS AROUND 8-18KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25KTS AND LIGHTER
AMOUNTS WESTWARD, CLOSER TO THE SURFACE HIGH/RIDGING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EST SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHRINKS
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
WESTERN SLOPES AS WE STAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW. CLOUDS ACCOMPANY THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH
MINIMUMS RANGING FROM NEGATIVE LOW TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
TO LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THE WAVE LOOKS TO WASH OUT BY SUNDAY MORNING, SO POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS WAVE, A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT SUNDAY MAXES TO BE IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW MOVING UP TO OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW
WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW REACHING SOUTHERN
ZONES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS TRENDING MORE NORTHERN REACH OF
PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVER THE 40N
70W BENCHMARK ON MONDAY. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS WITH CHANCE
REACHING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LIKELY INTO CENTRAL VERMONT
AND ADIRONDACKS. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MODEL RUNS SHOW CONSISTENCY ON
THIS SOLUTION BEFORE CONFIDENCE CAN INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA. PWATS SHOW LEVELS JUST SHY OF THIS
PAST STORM, BUT DRIER AIR AND PERSISTENT DRYING NORTHERLY FLOW
COULD KEEP PRECIP ALOFT...ENDING AS VIRGA FOR AT LEAST THE
BEGINNING OF THIS SYSTEM OR NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUES TO BE FRIGID SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS
RANGING FROM -20F TO -2F AND MONDAY ONLY REACHING -5F TO SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EST SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH
OF NOVA SCOTIA. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN
DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE 20S ON WEDNESDAY. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT
ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...
MAINLY AFTER 06Z SUNDAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW
SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF
REGION. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM 12Z
MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ026-
     027-029>031-034-087.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-
     035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 311217
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
717 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY, ENDING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY, BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCE FOR SNOW MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 608 AM EST SATURDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORY
CONTINUES THROUGH 1 PM TODAY.

THOUGH DIFFICULT TO TELL ON IR SATELLITE, IT APPEARS CLEARING HAS
SPREAD ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, ADIRONDACKS AND THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH EXCEPTION OF LAKE CLOUDS INDUCED BY THE WARM
LAKE...VERY WARM COMPARED TO THE AIR. 33 DEGREES LAKE TEMPERATURE
VS -5 CURRENTLY AT BTV. A FEW OTHER SPOTS HAVE CLEARED AND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL THIS MORNING, AIDED BY COLD AIR
ADVECTION EVIDENT IN THE BACKING WIND PROFILES. WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 5-15KTS, WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS HAVE BEEN -20 DEGREES
AND COLDER. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES
STARTING SO COLD, IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR TEMPERATURES AND
THEREFORE WIND CHILLS TO WARM THIS MORNING. BUT WITH MORE
SUNSHINE, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE WIND CHILL CRITERIA
AROUND NOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS CLEARING HAS
SETTLED IN, WHILE NORTHWEST FLOW AND SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW HAVE
KEPT THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOST PLACES EASTWARD OVERCAST. AS THE
NEGATIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWING EASTWARD,
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY. THIS WILL HELP CLOUD COVER TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND FROM SUB-ZERO, BUT NOT BY MUCH. 850MB AND
925MB TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE -20C TO -15C, WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING 0 TO 15 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERN VALLEYS WILL SEE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY.

PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER VT MOST OF THE DAY,
KEEPING WINDS AROUND 8-18KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25KTS AND LIGHTER
AMOUNTS WESTWARD, CLOSER TO THE SURFACE HIGH/RIDGING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EST SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHRINKS
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
WESTERN SLOPES AS WE STAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW. CLOUDS ACCOMPANY THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH
MINIMUMS RANGING FROM NEGATIVE LOW TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
TO LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THE WAVE LOOKS TO WASH OUT BY SUNDAY MORNING, SO POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS WAVE, A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT SUNDAY MAXES TO BE IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW MOVING UP TO OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW
WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW REACHING SOUTHERN
ZONES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS TRENDING MORE NORTHERN REACH OF
PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVER THE 40N
70W BENCHMARK ON MONDAY. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS WITH CHANCE
REACHING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LIKELY INTO CENTRAL VERMONT
AND ADIRONDACKS. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MODEL RUNS SHOW CONSISTENCY ON
THIS SOLUTION BEFORE CONFIDENCE CAN INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA. PWATS SHOW LEVELS JUST SHY OF THIS
PAST STORM, BUT DRIER AIR AND PERSISTENT DRYING NORTHERLY FLOW
COULD KEEP PRECIP ALOFT...ENDING AS VIRGA FOR AT LEAST THE
BEGINNING OF THIS SYSTEM OR NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUES TO BE FRIGID SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS
RANGING FROM -20F TO -2F AND MONDAY ONLY REACHING -5F TO SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EST SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH
OF NOVA SCOTIA. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN
DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE 20S ON WEDNESDAY. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT
ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...
MAINLY AFTER 06Z SUNDAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW
SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF
REGION. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM 12Z
MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ026-
     027-029>031-034-087.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-
     035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 311217
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
717 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY, ENDING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY, BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCE FOR SNOW MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 608 AM EST SATURDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORY
CONTINUES THROUGH 1 PM TODAY.

THOUGH DIFFICULT TO TELL ON IR SATELLITE, IT APPEARS CLEARING HAS
SPREAD ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, ADIRONDACKS AND THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH EXCEPTION OF LAKE CLOUDS INDUCED BY THE WARM
LAKE...VERY WARM COMPARED TO THE AIR. 33 DEGREES LAKE TEMPERATURE
VS -5 CURRENTLY AT BTV. A FEW OTHER SPOTS HAVE CLEARED AND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL THIS MORNING, AIDED BY COLD AIR
ADVECTION EVIDENT IN THE BACKING WIND PROFILES. WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 5-15KTS, WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS HAVE BEEN -20 DEGREES
AND COLDER. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES
STARTING SO COLD, IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR TEMPERATURES AND
THEREFORE WIND CHILLS TO WARM THIS MORNING. BUT WITH MORE
SUNSHINE, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE WIND CHILL CRITERIA
AROUND NOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS CLEARING HAS
SETTLED IN, WHILE NORTHWEST FLOW AND SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW HAVE
KEPT THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOST PLACES EASTWARD OVERCAST. AS THE
NEGATIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWING EASTWARD,
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY. THIS WILL HELP CLOUD COVER TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND FROM SUB-ZERO, BUT NOT BY MUCH. 850MB AND
925MB TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE -20C TO -15C, WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING 0 TO 15 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERN VALLEYS WILL SEE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY.

PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER VT MOST OF THE DAY,
KEEPING WINDS AROUND 8-18KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25KTS AND LIGHTER
AMOUNTS WESTWARD, CLOSER TO THE SURFACE HIGH/RIDGING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EST SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHRINKS
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
WESTERN SLOPES AS WE STAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW. CLOUDS ACCOMPANY THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH
MINIMUMS RANGING FROM NEGATIVE LOW TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
TO LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THE WAVE LOOKS TO WASH OUT BY SUNDAY MORNING, SO POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS WAVE, A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT SUNDAY MAXES TO BE IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW MOVING UP TO OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW
WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW REACHING SOUTHERN
ZONES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS TRENDING MORE NORTHERN REACH OF
PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVER THE 40N
70W BENCHMARK ON MONDAY. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS WITH CHANCE
REACHING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LIKELY INTO CENTRAL VERMONT
AND ADIRONDACKS. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MODEL RUNS SHOW CONSISTENCY ON
THIS SOLUTION BEFORE CONFIDENCE CAN INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA. PWATS SHOW LEVELS JUST SHY OF THIS
PAST STORM, BUT DRIER AIR AND PERSISTENT DRYING NORTHERLY FLOW
COULD KEEP PRECIP ALOFT...ENDING AS VIRGA FOR AT LEAST THE
BEGINNING OF THIS SYSTEM OR NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUES TO BE FRIGID SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS
RANGING FROM -20F TO -2F AND MONDAY ONLY REACHING -5F TO SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EST SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH
OF NOVA SCOTIA. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN
DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE 20S ON WEDNESDAY. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT
ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...
MAINLY AFTER 06Z SUNDAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW
SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF
REGION. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM 12Z
MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ026-
     027-029>031-034-087.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-
     035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/NEILES



000
FXUS61 KALY 311116
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER TO
START THE WEEKEND...THEN A CLIPPER LOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...A WIND CHILL WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING FOR
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...

...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE REST OF THE FCST AREA
EXCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS UNTIL 11 AM
THIS MORNING...

AS OF 6 AM EST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM 10 TO 15
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA TO AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE ZERO OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FA. FOR TODAY...DANGEROUS
WIND CHILL VALUES WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE MORNING...AND THE
HEADLINES RUN TO 11 AM. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY
SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING
THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
OVERALL...DOWNRIGHT FRIGID CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE
OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...AND PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES.
TEENS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA. THE WINDS
SHOULD SLACKEN LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...

FOR TONIGHT...A FAST MOVING MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO RACE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FA WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 5 BELOW
ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE 10 ABOVE ZERO SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND IN
THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WE ARE EXPECTING A DRY DAY.
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SO
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER THAN
SATURDAY...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE
LOWER TEENS NORTHWEST TO UPPER 20S SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE FA EXCLUDING
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A PROGRESSIVE
TYPE SYSTEM AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS NEUTRAL POSITIVELY
TILTED UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS WELL OFF THE COAST. THE SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE GOOD OVERRUNNING AS
THERE IS PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DECENT FRONTOGENESIS AT H7
BTWN 12Z AND 18Z ON MONDAY. IN THE WATCH AREA 7 INCHES OR MORE OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER AS WITH SO MANY STORMS THIS WINTER
THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF ON THE NORTHERN EDGE...THUS THE
REASON THAT THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WERE LEFT OUT OF THE WATCH AT
THIS TIME. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15
BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE MID TEENS SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO AROUND 20 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY/S STORM SYSTEM...THE
COMBINATION OF POTENTIALLY DEEP FRESH SNOW COVER...DECREASING
WIND...AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET LATER AT
NIGHT WELL BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS...WITH MANY MIN TEMPS POSSIBLY
DIPPING INTO THE -10 TO -20 F RANGE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AT THAT TIME...SO
WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ACTUAL AIR TEMPS. AFTER THE
BRUTALLY COLD START...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. MAX TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD EVENTUALLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-THU...A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME
WARM ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUE NT INTO EARLY
WED...ESP ACROSS NW AREAS. THEN...ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE WED OR
EARLY THU...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN VT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BY LATE
THU. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL MODERATE A BIT IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH WED MAX
TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING AROUND OR JUST OVER 30 IN VALLEYS...WITH
MAINLY MID/UPPER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS TUE
NT/WED AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST AREAS...WITH
SOME SUBZERO MINS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
THE LAKE GEORGE REGION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MIN TEMPS OCCUR EARLY
TUE EVE...THEN RISE LATER AT NIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. WED NT/THU AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON THU...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S...BUT MAY FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

THU NT-FRI...GENERALLY COLD AND DRY. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO IN MOST AREAS...AND WITH SOME LINGERING WIND...WIND CHILL
VALUES MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MANY AREAS...AND POSSIBLY
WARNING LEVELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI MAX
TEMPS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS...AND SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE STRENGTHENING WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND COAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH TODAY...WITH JUST A FEW STRATOCU CLOUDS AROUND BY LATE
IN THE DAY. STRATOCU CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE SAT EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 07Z/SUN AT
KPSF. ELSEWHERE...MOST CIGS WILL BE IN THE 3500-4500 FT AGL
RANGE...BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP
AT KALB AND KGFL TOWARD 12Z/SUN.

WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT TODAY...WITH SOME
GUSTS OCCASIONALLY REACHING UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES. WEST WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO UNDER 10 KT AROUND SUNSET AND SHOULD CONTINUE LIGHT
FROM THE WEST LATER SAT NT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY WITH MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. ANY
CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE STORM WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT
ON THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...11









000
FXUS61 KBTV 311108
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
608 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY, ENDING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY, BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCE FOR SNOW MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 608 AM EST SATURDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORY
CONTINUES THROUGH 1 PM TODAY.

THOUGH DIFFICULT TO TELL ON IR SATELLITE, IT APPEARS CLEARING HAS
SPREAD ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, ADIRONDACKS AND THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH EXCEPTION OF LAKE CLOUDS INDUCED BY THE WARM
LAKE...VERY WARM COMPARED TO THE AIR. 33 DEGREES LAKE TEMPERATURE
VS -5 CURRENTLY AT BTV. A FEW OTHER SPOTS HAVE CLEARED AND
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL THIS MORNING, AIDED BY COLD AIR
ADVECTION EVIDENT IN THE BACKING WIND PROFILES. WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 5-15KTS, WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS HAVE BEEN -20 DEGREES
AND COLDER. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES
STARTING SO COLD, IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR TEMPERATURES AND
THEREFORE WIND CHILLS TO WARM THIS MORNING. BUT WITH MORE
SUNSHINE, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE WIND CHILL CRITERIA
AROUND NOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS CLEARING HAS
SETTLED IN, WHILE NORTHWEST FLOW AND SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW HAVE
KEPT THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOST PLACES EASTWARD OVERCAST. AS THE
NEGATIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWING EASTWARD,
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY. THIS WILL HELP CLOUD COVER TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND FROM SUB-ZERO, BUT NOT BY MUCH. 850MB AND
925MB TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE -20C TO -15C, WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING 0 TO 15 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERN VALLEYS WILL SEE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY.

PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER VT MOST OF THE DAY,
KEEPING WINDS AROUND 8-18KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25KTS AND LIGHTER
AMOUNTS WESTWARD, CLOSER TO THE SURFACE HIGH/RIDGING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EST SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHRINKS
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
WESTERN SLOPES AS WE STAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW. CLOUDS ACCOMPANY THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH
MINIMUMS RANGING FROM NEGATIVE LOW TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
TO LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THE WAVE LOOKS TO WASH OUT BY SUNDAY MORNING, SO POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS WAVE, A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT SUNDAY MAXES TO BE IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW MOVING UP TO OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW
WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW REACHING SOUTHERN
ZONES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS TRENDING MORE NORTHERN REACH OF
PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVER THE 40N
70W BENCHMARK ON MONDAY. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS WITH CHANCE
REACHING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LIKELY INTO CENTRAL VERMONT
AND ADIRONDACKS. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MODEL RUNS SHOW CONSISTENCY ON
THIS SOLUTION BEFORE CONFIDENCE CAN INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA. PWATS SHOW LEVELS JUST SHY OF THIS
PAST STORM, BUT DRIER AIR AND PERSISTENT DRYING NORTHERLY FLOW
COULD KEEP PRECIP ALOFT...ENDING AS VIRGA FOR AT LEAST THE
BEGINNING OF THIS SYSTEM OR NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUES TO BE FRIGID SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS
RANGING FROM -20F TO -2F AND MONDAY ONLY REACHING -5F TO SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EST SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH
OF NOVA SCOTIA. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN
DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE 20S ON WEDNESDAY. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT
ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. EXPECTING CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO BECOME VFR BY
15Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR...WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TIL 12Z SUNDAY.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF
REGION. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM 12Z
MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ026-
     027-029>031-034-087.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-
     035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/NEILES




000
FXUS61 KALY 311101
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
601 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER TO
START THE WEEKEND...THEN A CLIPPER LOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WIND CHILL WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING FOR
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...

    A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE REST OF THE FCST AREA
EXCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS UNTIL 11 AM
THIS MORNING...

AS OF 6 AM EST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM 10 TO 15
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA TO AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE ZERO OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FA. FOR TODAY...DANGEROUS
WIND CHILL VALUES WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE MORNING...AND THE
HEADLINES RUN TO 11 AM. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY
SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING
THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
OVERALL...DOWNRIGHT FRIGID CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE
OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...AND PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES.
TEENS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA. THE WINDS
SHOULD SLACKEN LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...

FOR TONIGHT...A FAST MOVING MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO RACE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FA WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 5 BELOW
ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE 10 ABOVE ZERO SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND IN
THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WE ARE EXPECTING A DRY DAY.
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SO
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER THAN
SATURDAY...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE
LOWER TEENS NORTHWEST TO UPPER 20S SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE FA EXCLUDING
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A PROGRESSIVE
TYPE SYSTEM AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS NEUTRAL POSITIVELY
TILTED UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS WELL OFF THE COAST. THE SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE GOOD OVERRUNNING AS
THERE IS PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DECENT FRONTOGENESIS AT H7
BTWN 12Z AND 18Z ON MONDAY. IN THE WATCH AREA 7 INCHES OR MORE OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER AS WITH SO MANY STORMS THIS WINTER
THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF ON THE NORTHERN EDGE...THUS THE
REASON THAT THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WERE LEFT OUT OF THE WATCH AT
THIS TIME. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15
BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE MID TEENS SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO AROUND 20 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
     WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY/S STORM SYSTEM...THE
COMBINATION OF POTENTIALLY DEEP FRESH SNOW COVER...DECREASING
WIND...AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET LATER AT
NIGHT WELL BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS...WITH MANY MIN TEMPS POSSIBLY
DIPPING INTO THE -10 TO -20 F RANGE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AT THAT TIME...SO
WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ACTUAL AIR TEMPS. AFTER THE
BRUTALLY COLD START...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. MAX TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD EVENTUALLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-THU...A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME
WARM ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUE NT INTO EARLY
WED...ESP ACROSS NW AREAS. THEN...ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE WED OR
EARLY THU...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN VT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BY LATE
THU. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL MODERATE A BIT IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH WED MAX
TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING AROUND OR JUST OVER 30 IN VALLEYS...WITH
MAINLY MID/UPPER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS TUE
NT/WED AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST AREAS...WITH
SOME SUBZERO MINS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
THE LAKE GEORGE REGION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MIN TEMPS OCCUR EARLY
TUE EVE...THEN RISE LATER AT NIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. WED NT/THU AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON THU...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S...BUT MAY FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

THU NT-FRI...GENERALLY COLD AND DRY. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO IN MOST AREAS...AND WITH SOME LINGERING WIND...WIND CHILL
VALUES MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MANY AREAS...AND POSSIBLY
WARNING LEVELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI MAX
TEMPS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS...AND SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE STRENGTHENING WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND COAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES SAT NT.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU. AT KPSF...OCCASIONAL CLOUDS MAY PERSIST...POSSIBLY
INTO THE MVFR RANGE.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES...WITH JUST A FEW STRATOCU
CLOUDS AROUND BY LATE IN THE DAY. STRATOCU WILL THEN INCREASE SAT
EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY OVERNIGHT. W/NW WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF
SATURDAY. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE GUSTS BETWEEN 08Z-
12Z/SAT BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 12Z-14Z/SAT. WEST
WINDS WILL DECREASE TO UNDER 10 KT AROUND SUNSET AND SHOULD
CONTINUE LIGHT FROM THE WEST INTO SAT NT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY WITH MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. ANY
CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE STORM WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT
ON THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KALY 311101
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
601 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER TO
START THE WEEKEND...THEN A CLIPPER LOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WIND CHILL WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING FOR
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...

    A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE REST OF THE FCST AREA
EXCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS UNTIL 11 AM
THIS MORNING...

AS OF 6 AM EST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM 10 TO 15
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA TO AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE ZERO OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FA. FOR TODAY...DANGEROUS
WIND CHILL VALUES WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE MORNING...AND THE
HEADLINES RUN TO 11 AM. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY
SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING
THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
OVERALL...DOWNRIGHT FRIGID CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE
OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...AND PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES.
TEENS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA. THE WINDS
SHOULD SLACKEN LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...

FOR TONIGHT...A FAST MOVING MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO RACE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FA WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 5 BELOW
ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE 10 ABOVE ZERO SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND IN
THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WE ARE EXPECTING A DRY DAY.
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SO
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER THAN
SATURDAY...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE
LOWER TEENS NORTHWEST TO UPPER 20S SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE FA EXCLUDING
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A PROGRESSIVE
TYPE SYSTEM AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS NEUTRAL POSITIVELY
TILTED UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS WELL OFF THE COAST. THE SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE GOOD OVERRUNNING AS
THERE IS PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DECENT FRONTOGENESIS AT H7
BTWN 12Z AND 18Z ON MONDAY. IN THE WATCH AREA 7 INCHES OR MORE OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER AS WITH SO MANY STORMS THIS WINTER
THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF ON THE NORTHERN EDGE...THUS THE
REASON THAT THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WERE LEFT OUT OF THE WATCH AT
THIS TIME. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15
BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE MID TEENS SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO AROUND 20 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
     WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY/S STORM SYSTEM...THE
COMBINATION OF POTENTIALLY DEEP FRESH SNOW COVER...DECREASING
WIND...AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET LATER AT
NIGHT WELL BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS...WITH MANY MIN TEMPS POSSIBLY
DIPPING INTO THE -10 TO -20 F RANGE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AT THAT TIME...SO
WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ACTUAL AIR TEMPS. AFTER THE
BRUTALLY COLD START...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. MAX TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD EVENTUALLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-THU...A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME
WARM ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUE NT INTO EARLY
WED...ESP ACROSS NW AREAS. THEN...ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE WED OR
EARLY THU...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN VT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BY LATE
THU. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL MODERATE A BIT IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH WED MAX
TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING AROUND OR JUST OVER 30 IN VALLEYS...WITH
MAINLY MID/UPPER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS TUE
NT/WED AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST AREAS...WITH
SOME SUBZERO MINS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
THE LAKE GEORGE REGION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MIN TEMPS OCCUR EARLY
TUE EVE...THEN RISE LATER AT NIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. WED NT/THU AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON THU...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S...BUT MAY FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

THU NT-FRI...GENERALLY COLD AND DRY. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO IN MOST AREAS...AND WITH SOME LINGERING WIND...WIND CHILL
VALUES MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MANY AREAS...AND POSSIBLY
WARNING LEVELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI MAX
TEMPS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS...AND SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE STRENGTHENING WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND COAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES SAT NT.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU. AT KPSF...OCCASIONAL CLOUDS MAY PERSIST...POSSIBLY
INTO THE MVFR RANGE.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES...WITH JUST A FEW STRATOCU
CLOUDS AROUND BY LATE IN THE DAY. STRATOCU WILL THEN INCREASE SAT
EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY OVERNIGHT. W/NW WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF
SATURDAY. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE GUSTS BETWEEN 08Z-
12Z/SAT BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 12Z-14Z/SAT. WEST
WINDS WILL DECREASE TO UNDER 10 KT AROUND SUNSET AND SHOULD
CONTINUE LIGHT FROM THE WEST INTO SAT NT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY WITH MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. ANY
CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE STORM WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT
ON THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KALY 311101
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
601 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER TO
START THE WEEKEND...THEN A CLIPPER LOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WIND CHILL WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING FOR
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...

    A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE REST OF THE FCST AREA
EXCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS UNTIL 11 AM
THIS MORNING...

AS OF 6 AM EST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM 10 TO 15
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA TO AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE ZERO OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FA. FOR TODAY...DANGEROUS
WIND CHILL VALUES WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE MORNING...AND THE
HEADLINES RUN TO 11 AM. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY
SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING
THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
OVERALL...DOWNRIGHT FRIGID CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE
OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...AND PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES.
TEENS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA. THE WINDS
SHOULD SLACKEN LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...

FOR TONIGHT...A FAST MOVING MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO RACE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FA WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 5 BELOW
ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE 10 ABOVE ZERO SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND IN
THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WE ARE EXPECTING A DRY DAY.
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SO
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER THAN
SATURDAY...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE
LOWER TEENS NORTHWEST TO UPPER 20S SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE FA EXCLUDING
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A PROGRESSIVE
TYPE SYSTEM AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS NEUTRAL POSITIVELY
TILTED UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS WELL OFF THE COAST. THE SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE GOOD OVERRUNNING AS
THERE IS PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DECENT FRONTOGENESIS AT H7
BTWN 12Z AND 18Z ON MONDAY. IN THE WATCH AREA 7 INCHES OR MORE OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER AS WITH SO MANY STORMS THIS WINTER
THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF ON THE NORTHERN EDGE...THUS THE
REASON THAT THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WERE LEFT OUT OF THE WATCH AT
THIS TIME. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15
BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE MID TEENS SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO AROUND 20 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
     WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY/S STORM SYSTEM...THE
COMBINATION OF POTENTIALLY DEEP FRESH SNOW COVER...DECREASING
WIND...AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET LATER AT
NIGHT WELL BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS...WITH MANY MIN TEMPS POSSIBLY
DIPPING INTO THE -10 TO -20 F RANGE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AT THAT TIME...SO
WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ACTUAL AIR TEMPS. AFTER THE
BRUTALLY COLD START...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. MAX TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD EVENTUALLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-THU...A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME
WARM ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUE NT INTO EARLY
WED...ESP ACROSS NW AREAS. THEN...ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE WED OR
EARLY THU...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN VT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BY LATE
THU. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL MODERATE A BIT IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH WED MAX
TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING AROUND OR JUST OVER 30 IN VALLEYS...WITH
MAINLY MID/UPPER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS TUE
NT/WED AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST AREAS...WITH
SOME SUBZERO MINS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
THE LAKE GEORGE REGION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MIN TEMPS OCCUR EARLY
TUE EVE...THEN RISE LATER AT NIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. WED NT/THU AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON THU...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S...BUT MAY FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

THU NT-FRI...GENERALLY COLD AND DRY. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO IN MOST AREAS...AND WITH SOME LINGERING WIND...WIND CHILL
VALUES MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MANY AREAS...AND POSSIBLY
WARNING LEVELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI MAX
TEMPS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS...AND SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE STRENGTHENING WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND COAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES SAT NT.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU. AT KPSF...OCCASIONAL CLOUDS MAY PERSIST...POSSIBLY
INTO THE MVFR RANGE.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES...WITH JUST A FEW STRATOCU
CLOUDS AROUND BY LATE IN THE DAY. STRATOCU WILL THEN INCREASE SAT
EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY OVERNIGHT. W/NW WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF
SATURDAY. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE GUSTS BETWEEN 08Z-
12Z/SAT BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 12Z-14Z/SAT. WEST
WINDS WILL DECREASE TO UNDER 10 KT AROUND SUNSET AND SHOULD
CONTINUE LIGHT FROM THE WEST INTO SAT NT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY WITH MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. ANY
CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE STORM WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT
ON THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KALY 311101
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
601 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER TO
START THE WEEKEND...THEN A CLIPPER LOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WIND CHILL WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING FOR
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...

    A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE REST OF THE FCST AREA
EXCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS UNTIL 11 AM
THIS MORNING...

AS OF 6 AM EST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM 10 TO 15
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA TO AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE ZERO OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FA. FOR TODAY...DANGEROUS
WIND CHILL VALUES WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE MORNING...AND THE
HEADLINES RUN TO 11 AM. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY
SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING
THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
OVERALL...DOWNRIGHT FRIGID CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE
OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...AND PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES.
TEENS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA. THE WINDS
SHOULD SLACKEN LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...

FOR TONIGHT...A FAST MOVING MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO RACE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FA WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 5 BELOW
ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE 10 ABOVE ZERO SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND IN
THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WE ARE EXPECTING A DRY DAY.
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SO
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER THAN
SATURDAY...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE
LOWER TEENS NORTHWEST TO UPPER 20S SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE FA EXCLUDING
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A PROGRESSIVE
TYPE SYSTEM AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS NEUTRAL POSITIVELY
TILTED UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS WELL OFF THE COAST. THE SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE GOOD OVERRUNNING AS
THERE IS PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DECENT FRONTOGENESIS AT H7
BTWN 12Z AND 18Z ON MONDAY. IN THE WATCH AREA 7 INCHES OR MORE OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER AS WITH SO MANY STORMS THIS WINTER
THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF ON THE NORTHERN EDGE...THUS THE
REASON THAT THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WERE LEFT OUT OF THE WATCH AT
THIS TIME. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15
BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE MID TEENS SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO AROUND 20 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
     WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY/S STORM SYSTEM...THE
COMBINATION OF POTENTIALLY DEEP FRESH SNOW COVER...DECREASING
WIND...AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET LATER AT
NIGHT WELL BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS...WITH MANY MIN TEMPS POSSIBLY
DIPPING INTO THE -10 TO -20 F RANGE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AT THAT TIME...SO
WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ACTUAL AIR TEMPS. AFTER THE
BRUTALLY COLD START...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. MAX TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD EVENTUALLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-THU...A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME
WARM ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUE NT INTO EARLY
WED...ESP ACROSS NW AREAS. THEN...ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE WED OR
EARLY THU...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN VT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BY LATE
THU. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL MODERATE A BIT IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH WED MAX
TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING AROUND OR JUST OVER 30 IN VALLEYS...WITH
MAINLY MID/UPPER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS TUE
NT/WED AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST AREAS...WITH
SOME SUBZERO MINS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
THE LAKE GEORGE REGION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MIN TEMPS OCCUR EARLY
TUE EVE...THEN RISE LATER AT NIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. WED NT/THU AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON THU...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S...BUT MAY FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

THU NT-FRI...GENERALLY COLD AND DRY. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO IN MOST AREAS...AND WITH SOME LINGERING WIND...WIND CHILL
VALUES MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MANY AREAS...AND POSSIBLY
WARNING LEVELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI MAX
TEMPS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS...AND SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE STRENGTHENING WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND COAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES SAT NT.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU. AT KPSF...OCCASIONAL CLOUDS MAY PERSIST...POSSIBLY
INTO THE MVFR RANGE.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES...WITH JUST A FEW STRATOCU
CLOUDS AROUND BY LATE IN THE DAY. STRATOCU WILL THEN INCREASE SAT
EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY OVERNIGHT. W/NW WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF
SATURDAY. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE GUSTS BETWEEN 08Z-
12Z/SAT BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 12Z-14Z/SAT. WEST
WINDS WILL DECREASE TO UNDER 10 KT AROUND SUNSET AND SHOULD
CONTINUE LIGHT FROM THE WEST INTO SAT NT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY WITH MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. ANY
CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE STORM WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT
ON THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KBTV 310858
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
358 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY, ENDING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY, BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCE FOR SNOW MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 348 AM EST SATURDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORY
CONTINUES THROUGH 1 PM TODAY.

WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS CLEARING HAS SETTLED IN, WHILE NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW HAVE KEPT THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOST
PLACES EASTWARD OVERCAST. AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWING EASTWARD, RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THIS WILL HELP
CLOUD COVER TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
FROM SUB-ZERO, BUT NOT BY MUCH. 850MB AND 925MB TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO RANGE -20C TO -15C, WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ONLY
REACHING 0 TO 15 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN VALLEYS WILL SEE
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY.

PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER VT MOST OF THE DAY,
KEEPING WINDS AROUND 8-18KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25KTS AND LIGHTER
AMOUNTS WESTWARD, CLOSER TO THE SURFACE HIGH/RIDGING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EST SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHRINKS
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
WESTERN SLOPES AS WE STAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW. CLOUDS ACCOMPANY THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH
MINIMUMS RANGING FROM NEGATIVE LOW TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
TO LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THE WAVE LOOKS TO WASH OUT BY SUNDAY MORNING, SO POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS WAVE, A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT SUNDAY MAXES TO BE IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW MOVING UP TO OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW
WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW REACHING SOUTHERN
ZONES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS TRENDING MORE NORTHERN REACH OF
PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVER THE 40N
70W BENCHMARK ON MONDAY. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS WITH CHANCE
REACHING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LIKELY INTO CENTRAL VERMONT
AND ADIRONDACKS. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MODEL RUNS SHOW CONSISTENCY ON
THIS SOLUTION BEFORE CONFIDENCE CAN INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA. PWATS SHOW LEVELS JUST SHY OF THIS
PAST STORM, BUT DRIER AIR AND PERSISTENT DRYING NORTHERLY FLOW
COULD KEEP PRECIP ALOFT...ENDING AS VIRGA FOR AT LEAST THE
BEGINNING OF THIS SYSTEM OR NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUES TO BE FRIGID SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS
RANGING FROM -20F TO -2F AND MONDAY ONLY REACHING -5F TO SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EST SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH
OF NOVA SCOTIA. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN
DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE 20S ON WEDNESDAY. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT
ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. EXPECTING CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO BECOME VFR BY
15Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR...WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TIL 12Z SUNDAY.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF
REGION. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM 12Z
MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ026-
     027-029>031-034-087.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-
     035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS/KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 310858
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
358 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY, ENDING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY, BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCE FOR SNOW MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 348 AM EST SATURDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORY
CONTINUES THROUGH 1 PM TODAY.

WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS CLEARING HAS SETTLED IN, WHILE NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW HAVE KEPT THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOST
PLACES EASTWARD OVERCAST. AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWING EASTWARD, RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THIS WILL HELP
CLOUD COVER TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
FROM SUB-ZERO, BUT NOT BY MUCH. 850MB AND 925MB TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO RANGE -20C TO -15C, WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ONLY
REACHING 0 TO 15 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN VALLEYS WILL SEE
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY.

PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER VT MOST OF THE DAY,
KEEPING WINDS AROUND 8-18KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25KTS AND LIGHTER
AMOUNTS WESTWARD, CLOSER TO THE SURFACE HIGH/RIDGING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EST SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHRINKS
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
WESTERN SLOPES AS WE STAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW. CLOUDS ACCOMPANY THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH
MINIMUMS RANGING FROM NEGATIVE LOW TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
TO LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THE WAVE LOOKS TO WASH OUT BY SUNDAY MORNING, SO POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS WAVE, A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT SUNDAY MAXES TO BE IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW MOVING UP TO OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW
WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW REACHING SOUTHERN
ZONES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS TRENDING MORE NORTHERN REACH OF
PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVER THE 40N
70W BENCHMARK ON MONDAY. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS WITH CHANCE
REACHING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LIKELY INTO CENTRAL VERMONT
AND ADIRONDACKS. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MODEL RUNS SHOW CONSISTENCY ON
THIS SOLUTION BEFORE CONFIDENCE CAN INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA. PWATS SHOW LEVELS JUST SHY OF THIS
PAST STORM, BUT DRIER AIR AND PERSISTENT DRYING NORTHERLY FLOW
COULD KEEP PRECIP ALOFT...ENDING AS VIRGA FOR AT LEAST THE
BEGINNING OF THIS SYSTEM OR NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUES TO BE FRIGID SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS
RANGING FROM -20F TO -2F AND MONDAY ONLY REACHING -5F TO SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EST SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH
OF NOVA SCOTIA. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN
DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE 20S ON WEDNESDAY. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE KEPT IN A CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT
ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. EXPECTING CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO BECOME VFR BY
15Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR...WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TIL 12Z SUNDAY.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF
REGION. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM 12Z
MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ026-
     027-029>031-034-087.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-
     035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS/KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 310848
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
348 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY, ENDING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY, BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCE FOR SNOW MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 348 AM EST SATURDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORY
CONTINUES THROUGH 1 PM TODAY.

WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS CLEARING HAS SETTLED IN, WHILE NORTHWEST
FLOW AND SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW HAVE KEPT THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOST
PLACES EASTWARD OVERCAST. AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWING EASTWARD, RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THIS WILL HELP
CLOUD COVER TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
FROM SUB-ZERO, BUT NOT BY MUCH. 850MB AND 925MB TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO RANGE -20C TO -15C, WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ONLY
REACHING 0 TO 15 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN VALLEYS WILL SEE
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY.

PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER VT MOST OF THE DAY,
KEEPING WINDS AROUND 8-18KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25KTS AND LIGHTER
AMOUNTS WESTWARD, CLOSER TO THE SURFACE HIGH/RIDGING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EST SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHRINKS
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
WESTERN SLOPES AS WE STAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW. CLOUDS ACCOMPANY THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH
MINIMUMS RANGING FROM NEGATIVE LOW TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
TO LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THE WAVE LOOKS TO WASH OUT BY SUNDAY MORNING, SO POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS WAVE, A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT SUNDAY MAXES TO BE IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW MOVING UP TO OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW
WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW REACHING SOUTHERN
ZONES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS TRENDING MORE NORTHERN REACH OF
PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVER THE 40N
70W BENCHMARK ON MONDAY. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS WITH CHANCE
REACHING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LIKELY INTO CENTRAL VERMONT
AND ADIRONDACKS. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MODEL RUNS SHOW CONSISTENCY ON
THIS SOLUTION BEFORE CONFIDENCE CAN INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA. PWATS SHOW LEVELS JUST SHY OF THIS
PAST STORM, BUT DRIER AIR AND PERSISTENT DRYING NORTHERLY FLOW
COULD KEEP PRECIP ALOFT...ENDING AS VIRGA FOR AT LEAST THE
BEGINNING OF THIS SYSTEM OR NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUES TO BE FRIGID SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINS
RANGING FROM -20F TO -2F AND MONDAY ONLY REACHING -5F TO SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE ACTIVE WEATHER AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN RIDGE
INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER
WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BY
FRIDAY MORNING ANOTHER LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE ONLY DAY OF
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH A CHANCE AT NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE COLD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. EXPECTING CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO BECOME VFR BY
15Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR...WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TIL 12Z SUNDAY.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF
REGION. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM 12Z
MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ026-
     027-029>031-034-087.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-
     035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS/KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/NEILES




000
FXUS61 KALY 310825
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
325 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER TO
START THE WEEKEND...THEN A CLIPPER LOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
    A WIND CHILL WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING FOR
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...

    A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE REST OF THE FCST AREA
EXCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS UNTIL 11 AM
THIS MORNING...

FOR TODAY...DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF
THE MORNING...AND THE HEADLINES RUN TO 11 AM. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY
THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES AND VERY COLD
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. OVERALL...DOWNRIGHT FRIGID CONDITIONS WITH
HIGHS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...AND PARTS
OF THE BERKSHIRES. TEENS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE REST OF THE FCST
AREA. THE WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
     A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...

FOR TONIGHT...A FAST MOVING MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO RACE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FA WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 5 BELOW
ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE 10 ABOVE ZERO SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND IN
THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WE ARE EXPECTING A DRY DAY.
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SO
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER THAN
SATURDAY...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE
LOWER TEENS NORTHWEST TO UPPER 20S SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE FA EXCLUDING
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A PROGRESSIVE
TYPE SYSTEM AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS NEUTRAL POSITIVELY
TILTED UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS WELL OFF THE COAST. THE SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE GOOD OVERRUNNING AS
THERE IS PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DECENT FRONTOGENESIS AT H7
BTWN 12Z AND 18Z ON MONDAY. IN THE WATCH AREA 7 INCHES OR MORE OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER AS WITH SO MANY STORMS THIS WINTER
THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF ON THE NORTHERN EDGE...THUS THE
REASON THAT THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WERE LEFT OUT OF THE WATCH AT
THIS TIME. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15
BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE MID TEENS SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO AROUND 20 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
...WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY/S STORM SYSTEM...THE
COMBINATION OF POTENTIALLY DEEP FRESH SNOW COVER...DECREASING
WIND...AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET LATER AT
NIGHT WELL BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS...WITH MANY MIN TEMPS POSSIBLY
DIPPING INTO THE -10 TO -20 F RANGE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AT THAT TIME...SO
WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ACTUAL AIR TEMPS. AFTER THE
BRUTALLY COLD START...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. MAX TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD EVENTUALLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-THU...A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME
WARM ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUE NT INTO EARLY
WED...ESP ACROSS NW AREAS. THEN...ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE WED OR
EARLY THU...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN VT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BY LATE
THU. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL MODERATE A BIT IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH WED MAX
TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING AROUND OR JUST OVER 30 IN VALLEYS...WITH
MAINLY MID/UPPER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS TUE
NT/WED AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST AREAS...WITH
SOME SUBZERO MINS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
THE LAKE GEORGE REGION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MIN TEMPS OCCUR EARLY
TUE EVE...THEN RISE LATER AT NIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. WED NT/THU AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON THU...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S...BUT MAY FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

THU NT-FRI...GENERALLY COLD AND DRY. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO IN MOST AREAS...AND WITH SOME LINGERING WIND...WIND CHILL
VALUES MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MANY AREAS...AND POSSIBLY
WARNING LEVELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI MAX
TEMPS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS...AND SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE STRENGTHENING WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND COAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES SAT NT.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU. AT KPSF...OCCASIONAL CLOUDS MAY PERSIST...POSSIBLY
INTO THE MVFR RANGE.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES...WITH JUST A FEW STRATOCU
CLOUDS AROUND BY LATE IN THE DAY. STRATOCU WILL THEN INCREASE SAT
EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY OVERNIGHT. W/NW WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF
SATURDAY. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE GUSTS BETWEEN 08Z-
12Z/SAT BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 12Z-14Z/SAT. WEST
WINDS WILL DECREASE TO UNDER 10 KT AROUND SUNSET AND SHOULD
CONTINUE LIGHT FROM THE WEST INTO SAT NT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY WITH MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. ANY
CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE STORM WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT
ON THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...11







000
FXUS61 KALY 310825
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
325 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BRIEFLY IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER TO
START THE WEEKEND...THEN A CLIPPER LOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
    A WIND CHILL WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING FOR
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...

    A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE REST OF THE FCST AREA
EXCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS UNTIL 11 AM
THIS MORNING...

FOR TODAY...DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF
THE MORNING...AND THE HEADLINES RUN TO 11 AM. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY
THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES AND VERY COLD
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. OVERALL...DOWNRIGHT FRIGID CONDITIONS WITH
HIGHS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...AND PARTS
OF THE BERKSHIRES. TEENS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE REST OF THE FCST
AREA. THE WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
     A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...

FOR TONIGHT...A FAST MOVING MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO RACE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FA WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ELSEWHERE.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 5 BELOW
ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE 10 ABOVE ZERO SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND IN
THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WE ARE EXPECTING A DRY DAY.
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SO
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER THAN
SATURDAY...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS FROM THE
LOWER TEENS NORTHWEST TO UPPER 20S SOUTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT WE ARE EXPECTING SNOW TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE FA EXCLUDING
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A PROGRESSIVE
TYPE SYSTEM AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS NEUTRAL POSITIVELY
TILTED UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS WELL OFF THE COAST. THE SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE GOOD OVERRUNNING AS
THERE IS PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DECENT FRONTOGENESIS AT H7
BTWN 12Z AND 18Z ON MONDAY. IN THE WATCH AREA 7 INCHES OR MORE OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER AS WITH SO MANY STORMS THIS WINTER
THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF ON THE NORTHERN EDGE...THUS THE
REASON THAT THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WERE LEFT OUT OF THE WATCH AT
THIS TIME. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15
BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE MID TEENS SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO AROUND 20 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
...WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY/S STORM SYSTEM...THE
COMBINATION OF POTENTIALLY DEEP FRESH SNOW COVER...DECREASING
WIND...AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET LATER AT
NIGHT WELL BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS...WITH MANY MIN TEMPS POSSIBLY
DIPPING INTO THE -10 TO -20 F RANGE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AT THAT TIME...SO
WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO ACTUAL AIR TEMPS. AFTER THE
BRUTALLY COLD START...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. MAX TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD EVENTUALLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-THU...A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME
WARM ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUE NT INTO EARLY
WED...ESP ACROSS NW AREAS. THEN...ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE WED OR
EARLY THU...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN VT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BY LATE
THU. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL MODERATE A BIT IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH WED MAX
TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING AROUND OR JUST OVER 30 IN VALLEYS...WITH
MAINLY MID/UPPER 20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS TUE
NT/WED AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST AREAS...WITH
SOME SUBZERO MINS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
THE LAKE GEORGE REGION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MIN TEMPS OCCUR EARLY
TUE EVE...THEN RISE LATER AT NIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. WED NT/THU AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON THU...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S...BUT MAY FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

THU NT-FRI...GENERALLY COLD AND DRY. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW
ZERO IN MOST AREAS...AND WITH SOME LINGERING WIND...WIND CHILL
VALUES MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MANY AREAS...AND POSSIBLY
WARNING LEVELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FRI MAX
TEMPS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOWER/MID TEENS IN VALLEYS...AND SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE STRENGTHENING WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND COAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES SAT NT.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU. AT KPSF...OCCASIONAL CLOUDS MAY PERSIST...POSSIBLY
INTO THE MVFR RANGE.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES...WITH JUST A FEW STRATOCU
CLOUDS AROUND BY LATE IN THE DAY. STRATOCU WILL THEN INCREASE SAT
EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY OVERNIGHT. W/NW WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF
SATURDAY. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE GUSTS BETWEEN 08Z-
12Z/SAT BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 12Z-14Z/SAT. WEST
WINDS WILL DECREASE TO UNDER 10 KT AROUND SUNSET AND SHOULD
CONTINUE LIGHT FROM THE WEST INTO SAT NT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY WITH MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. ANY
CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE STORM WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT
ON THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...11








000
FXUS61 KBTV 310645
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
145 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL END TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM
NEW ENGLAND. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND BITTERLY COLD WIND
CHILLS WILL FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES OF
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1212 AM EST SATURDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORY
CONTINUES THROUGH 1 PM SATURDAY.

SURFACE OBS SHOW UPSLOPE SNOW CONTINUES OVER AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN. IR SATELLITE AND SUPPORTED BY SURFACE OBS, SHOW CLEARING
SKIES IN ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OF
NORTHERN NY. ADIRONDACKS, CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND AREAS EAST CONTINUE
TO HAVE MOISTURE AND THEREFORE OVC SKIES WHICH WILL BE SLOWER TO
CLEAR AS MID-UPPER TROUGH IS BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED...SLOWING
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF COASTAL LOW.

WIND FORECAST OF 10 TO 20 KTS AND TEMP FORECAST STILL SUPPORT
WIND CHILL WARNING FOR NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY...AND ADVISORY FOR CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EAST. BUFKIT SHOWS
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS IN EASTERN VERMONT IN THE
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. IRIS
SHOWING SOME AREAS IN VT ALREADY SEEING WIND CHILLS OF -20F AND
COLDER. MANY SURFACE OBS ACROSS NORTHERN NY, MAINLY WEST OF
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ALREADY SHOWING TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO. SO MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NEGATIVE
SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS VT LOOK TO BE ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNINGS/ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.

COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING WITH RATHER TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 925 MB TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE
TEENS TO -20S AND WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
CONTINUE. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND
LOWER TEENS SOUTH WITH WIND CHILLS 15 TO 30 BELOW THROUGH THE
MORNING. SOME MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT...OTHERWISE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHRINKS SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER
WAVE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS BACK INTO THE REGION
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEGATIVE
MID TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT. RETURN TO NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ON SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH. CLOUDS RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. HAVE
INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT BETTER CHANCES
FOR SNOW WILL LIE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. MIN TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE ACTIVE WEATHER AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN RIDGE
INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER
WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BY
FRIDAY MORNING ANOTHER LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE ONLY DAY OF
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH A CHANCE AT NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE COLD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. EXPECTING CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO BECOME VFR BY
15Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR...WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TIL 12Z SUNDAY.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF
REGION. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM 12Z
MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ026-
     027-029>031-034-087.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-
     035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM/HANSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 310645
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
145 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL END TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM
NEW ENGLAND. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND BITTERLY COLD WIND
CHILLS WILL FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES OF
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1212 AM EST SATURDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORY
CONTINUES THROUGH 1 PM SATURDAY.

SURFACE OBS SHOW UPSLOPE SNOW CONTINUES OVER AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN. IR SATELLITE AND SUPPORTED BY SURFACE OBS, SHOW CLEARING
SKIES IN ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OF
NORTHERN NY. ADIRONDACKS, CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND AREAS EAST CONTINUE
TO HAVE MOISTURE AND THEREFORE OVC SKIES WHICH WILL BE SLOWER TO
CLEAR AS MID-UPPER TROUGH IS BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED...SLOWING
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF COASTAL LOW.

WIND FORECAST OF 10 TO 20 KTS AND TEMP FORECAST STILL SUPPORT
WIND CHILL WARNING FOR NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY...AND ADVISORY FOR CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EAST. BUFKIT SHOWS
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS IN EASTERN VERMONT IN THE
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. IRIS
SHOWING SOME AREAS IN VT ALREADY SEEING WIND CHILLS OF -20F AND
COLDER. MANY SURFACE OBS ACROSS NORTHERN NY, MAINLY WEST OF
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ALREADY SHOWING TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO. SO MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NEGATIVE
SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS VT LOOK TO BE ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNINGS/ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.

COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING WITH RATHER TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 925 MB TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE
TEENS TO -20S AND WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
CONTINUE. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND
LOWER TEENS SOUTH WITH WIND CHILLS 15 TO 30 BELOW THROUGH THE
MORNING. SOME MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT...OTHERWISE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHRINKS SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER
WAVE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS BACK INTO THE REGION
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEGATIVE
MID TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT. RETURN TO NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ON SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH. CLOUDS RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. HAVE
INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT BETTER CHANCES
FOR SNOW WILL LIE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. MIN TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE ACTIVE WEATHER AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN RIDGE
INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER
WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BY
FRIDAY MORNING ANOTHER LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE ONLY DAY OF
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH A CHANCE AT NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE COLD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. EXPECTING CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO BECOME VFR BY
15Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR...WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TIL 12Z SUNDAY.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF
REGION. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM 12Z
MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ026-
     027-029>031-034-087.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-
     035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM/HANSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 310645
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
145 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL END TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM
NEW ENGLAND. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND BITTERLY COLD WIND
CHILLS WILL FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES OF
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1212 AM EST SATURDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORY
CONTINUES THROUGH 1 PM SATURDAY.

SURFACE OBS SHOW UPSLOPE SNOW CONTINUES OVER AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN. IR SATELLITE AND SUPPORTED BY SURFACE OBS, SHOW CLEARING
SKIES IN ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OF
NORTHERN NY. ADIRONDACKS, CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND AREAS EAST CONTINUE
TO HAVE MOISTURE AND THEREFORE OVC SKIES WHICH WILL BE SLOWER TO
CLEAR AS MID-UPPER TROUGH IS BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED...SLOWING
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF COASTAL LOW.

WIND FORECAST OF 10 TO 20 KTS AND TEMP FORECAST STILL SUPPORT
WIND CHILL WARNING FOR NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY...AND ADVISORY FOR CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EAST. BUFKIT SHOWS
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS IN EASTERN VERMONT IN THE
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. IRIS
SHOWING SOME AREAS IN VT ALREADY SEEING WIND CHILLS OF -20F AND
COLDER. MANY SURFACE OBS ACROSS NORTHERN NY, MAINLY WEST OF
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ALREADY SHOWING TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO. SO MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NEGATIVE
SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS VT LOOK TO BE ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNINGS/ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.

COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING WITH RATHER TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 925 MB TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE
TEENS TO -20S AND WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
CONTINUE. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND
LOWER TEENS SOUTH WITH WIND CHILLS 15 TO 30 BELOW THROUGH THE
MORNING. SOME MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT...OTHERWISE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHRINKS SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER
WAVE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS BACK INTO THE REGION
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEGATIVE
MID TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT. RETURN TO NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ON SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH. CLOUDS RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. HAVE
INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT BETTER CHANCES
FOR SNOW WILL LIE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. MIN TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE ACTIVE WEATHER AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN RIDGE
INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER
WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BY
FRIDAY MORNING ANOTHER LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE ONLY DAY OF
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH A CHANCE AT NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE COLD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. EXPECTING CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO BECOME VFR BY
15Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR...WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TIL 12Z SUNDAY.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF
REGION. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM 12Z
MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ026-
     027-029>031-034-087.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-
     035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM/HANSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 310645
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
145 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL END TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM
NEW ENGLAND. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND BITTERLY COLD WIND
CHILLS WILL FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES OF
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1212 AM EST SATURDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORY
CONTINUES THROUGH 1 PM SATURDAY.

SURFACE OBS SHOW UPSLOPE SNOW CONTINUES OVER AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN. IR SATELLITE AND SUPPORTED BY SURFACE OBS, SHOW CLEARING
SKIES IN ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OF
NORTHERN NY. ADIRONDACKS, CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND AREAS EAST CONTINUE
TO HAVE MOISTURE AND THEREFORE OVC SKIES WHICH WILL BE SLOWER TO
CLEAR AS MID-UPPER TROUGH IS BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED...SLOWING
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF COASTAL LOW.

WIND FORECAST OF 10 TO 20 KTS AND TEMP FORECAST STILL SUPPORT
WIND CHILL WARNING FOR NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY...AND ADVISORY FOR CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EAST. BUFKIT SHOWS
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS IN EASTERN VERMONT IN THE
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. IRIS
SHOWING SOME AREAS IN VT ALREADY SEEING WIND CHILLS OF -20F AND
COLDER. MANY SURFACE OBS ACROSS NORTHERN NY, MAINLY WEST OF
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ALREADY SHOWING TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO. SO MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NEGATIVE
SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS VT LOOK TO BE ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNINGS/ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.

COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING WITH RATHER TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 925 MB TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE
TEENS TO -20S AND WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
CONTINUE. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND
LOWER TEENS SOUTH WITH WIND CHILLS 15 TO 30 BELOW THROUGH THE
MORNING. SOME MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT...OTHERWISE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHRINKS SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER
WAVE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS BACK INTO THE REGION
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEGATIVE
MID TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT. RETURN TO NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ON SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH. CLOUDS RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. HAVE
INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT BETTER CHANCES
FOR SNOW WILL LIE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. MIN TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE ACTIVE WEATHER AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN RIDGE
INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER
WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BY
FRIDAY MORNING ANOTHER LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE ONLY DAY OF
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH A CHANCE AT NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE COLD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. EXPECTING CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO BECOME VFR BY
15Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR...WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TIL 12Z SUNDAY.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF
REGION. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM 12Z
MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ026-
     027-029>031-034-087.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-
     035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM/HANSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/NEILES




000
FXUS61 KALY 310526
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1226 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD
WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BRIEFLY IN
CONTROL TO START THE WEEKEND...THEN A CLIPPER LOW SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT TO
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE STORM TRACK IS STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
...A WIND CHILL WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY FOR
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...

...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE REST OF THE FCST AREA
EXCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS UNTIL 11 AM
SATURDAY...

AS OF 1212 AM EST...A BITTERLY COLD AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...A STRONG
NW FLOW IS IN PLACE AT BOTH THE SFC AND MID LEVELS.

SKIES ARE ALREADY CLEARING OUT...AND MOST AREAS LOOK TO BE MOSTLY
CLEAR TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN BTWN THE SFC ANTICYCLONE
NEAR THE OH VALLEY...AND THE CYCLONE DEEPENING S/SE OF NOVA
SCOTIA. THE H850 WINDS INCREASE TO 40-55+KTS...H925 WINDS 30-50
KTS IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER
PROFILES SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME 30-35+ KT GUSTS MIXING DOWN
ACROSS LOCATIONS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION S/SE. EXPECT BLUSTERY NW
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE. H850
TEMPS PLUMMET TO -15C TO -20C FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...AND -12C TO -15C SOUTH AND EAST.

OUR MIN TEMPS FAVOR THE COLDER METMOS VALUES WITH LOWS 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO OVER THE SRN DACKS....ZERO TO 10 BELOW OVER THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN CATSKILLS...N-CNTRL TACONICS...LAKE
GEORGE NRN SARATOGA REGION...SRN VT WEST OF THE SRN GREENS...AND
BERKS.  EXPECT ZERO TO 5 ABOVE READINGS OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN TACONICS...AND NW CT.

THESE COLD TEMPS COMBINED WITH THE WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OR
APPARENT TEMPS OF 30 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW ZERO OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SRN DACKS...AND 15 TO 29 DEGREES BELOW ZERO OVER THE REST OF THE
FCST AREA.

TOMORROW...NASTY WIND CHILLS CONTINUE MOST OF THE MORNING...AND THE
HEADLINES RUN TO 11 AM.  THE CYCLONE BECOMES OCCLUDED NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND.  THE SFC HIGH ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY THE AFTERNOON.  MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL BE
15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  OVERALL...DOWNRIGHT FRIGID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES. TEENS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA.  THE WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN LATE IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER MOISTURE SPARSE CLIPPER WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
W/NW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER ANY
CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE STORM WOULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ALOFT WILL FLATTEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FILLS AND HEADS
NORTHWARD AND ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND DIGS
A TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION
WILL WEAKENING AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE. TEMPERATURES
ARE OUR REGION WILL MODERATE SUNDAY AND NOT BE BITTERLY COLD LIKE
SATURDAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES WITH MUCH WEAKER
WINDS.

AT THIS TIME...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD
AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST MONDAY MORNING THEN HEAD NORTHEASTWARD
PASSING SOUTH OF CAPE COD. OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
CONTINUE WELL INTO MONDAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK ALL
SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHER THAN CLIMO
SNOW RATIOS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES SHOW SPREAD IN THEIR
FORECAST IN REGARDS TO STORM TRACK AND QPF AMOUNTS. THERE IS MODEL
CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME THE SYSTEM ALOFT REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND
DOES NOT CLOSE OFF AND DOES NOT BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED UNTIL ITS
WELL OFFSHORE. ANY CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE LOW WILL
HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. THE GRADIENT OF
SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE PROBABILISTIC
SNOWFALL GUIDANCE FOR ALBANY RANGES FROM AS LITTLE AS 1 TO 2
INCHES UP TO AROUND 10 INCHES.

BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK AND EXPECTED QPF HAVE OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK SEGMENTED AS FOLLOWS...

SIGNIFICANT (WARNING LEVEL) SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES...EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND THE SOUTHERN TACONICS.

MODERATE (ADVISORY LEVEL) SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...GREATER CAPITAL
REGION...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...AND THE NORTHERN TACONICS AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

LIGHT TO POSSIBLE MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALONG
WITH A FRESH SNOWCOVER...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DROP TO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH 10
DEGREES BELOW ZERO AND COLDER FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90. MAY NEED ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH...DRY AND COLD WEATHER
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS. LOW TEMPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS...WITH A FEW SPOTS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THESE TEMPS WON/T BE AS COLD AS THEY COULD BE...DUE TO INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WIND.

A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
CLIPPER STORM WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA...SO ANY FORCING WILL ONLY BE WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD/ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY...WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.  TEMPS WILL BE WARMER AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S. MINS LOOK TO BE IN THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND HOW QUICKLY IT CLEARS OUT BEHIND IT.

ANOTHER VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR THE
LATE WEEK PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR MAY NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A COASTAL WAVE LOOK TO BE MOVING UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE IN THE WEEK AS WELL...BUT IT SHOULD BE
WELL OFFSHORE AND HAVE NO IMPACT ON THE REGION...AS WE WILL BE IN
THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. TEMPS LOOK TO
BE IN THE 20S FOR THURSDAY...BUT WILL DROP TO -10 TO 10 ABOVE FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND ONLY REACH THE TEENS FOR FRIDAY. IT LOOKS
FAIRLY COLD ONCE AGAIN FOR FRI NIGHT AS WELL WITH MANY LOCATIONS AT
OR BELOW ZERO. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD TEMPS...IT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY THURS/FRI...AS THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE...KEEPING SKIES MAINLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE STRENGTHENING WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND COAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES SAT NT.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU. AT KPSF...OCCASIONAL CLOUDS MAY PERSIST...POSSIBLY
INTO THE MVFR RANGE.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES...WITH JUST A FEW STRATOCU
CLOUDS AROUND BY LATE IN THE DAY. STRATOCU WILL THEN INCREASE SAT
EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY OVERNIGHT. W/NW WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF
SATURDAY. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE GUSTS BETWEEN 08Z-
12Z/SAT BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 12Z-14Z/SAT. WEST
WINDS WILL DECREASE TO UNDER 10 KT AROUND SUNSET AND SHOULD
CONTINUE LIGHT FROM THE WEST INTO SAT NT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SNOW SHOWERS INTO EVENING WITH GENERALLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.

A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MODERATE
TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. ANY CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK
OF THE STORM WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KALY 310526
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1226 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD
WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BRIEFLY IN
CONTROL TO START THE WEEKEND...THEN A CLIPPER LOW SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT TO
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE STORM TRACK IS STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
...A WIND CHILL WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY FOR
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...

...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE REST OF THE FCST AREA
EXCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS UNTIL 11 AM
SATURDAY...

AS OF 1212 AM EST...A BITTERLY COLD AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...A STRONG
NW FLOW IS IN PLACE AT BOTH THE SFC AND MID LEVELS.

SKIES ARE ALREADY CLEARING OUT...AND MOST AREAS LOOK TO BE MOSTLY
CLEAR TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN BTWN THE SFC ANTICYCLONE
NEAR THE OH VALLEY...AND THE CYCLONE DEEPENING S/SE OF NOVA
SCOTIA. THE H850 WINDS INCREASE TO 40-55+KTS...H925 WINDS 30-50
KTS IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER
PROFILES SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME 30-35+ KT GUSTS MIXING DOWN
ACROSS LOCATIONS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION S/SE. EXPECT BLUSTERY NW
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE. H850
TEMPS PLUMMET TO -15C TO -20C FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...AND -12C TO -15C SOUTH AND EAST.

OUR MIN TEMPS FAVOR THE COLDER METMOS VALUES WITH LOWS 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO OVER THE SRN DACKS....ZERO TO 10 BELOW OVER THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN CATSKILLS...N-CNTRL TACONICS...LAKE
GEORGE NRN SARATOGA REGION...SRN VT WEST OF THE SRN GREENS...AND
BERKS.  EXPECT ZERO TO 5 ABOVE READINGS OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN TACONICS...AND NW CT.

THESE COLD TEMPS COMBINED WITH THE WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OR
APPARENT TEMPS OF 30 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW ZERO OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SRN DACKS...AND 15 TO 29 DEGREES BELOW ZERO OVER THE REST OF THE
FCST AREA.

TOMORROW...NASTY WIND CHILLS CONTINUE MOST OF THE MORNING...AND THE
HEADLINES RUN TO 11 AM.  THE CYCLONE BECOMES OCCLUDED NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND.  THE SFC HIGH ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY THE AFTERNOON.  MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL BE
15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  OVERALL...DOWNRIGHT FRIGID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES. TEENS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA.  THE WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN LATE IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER MOISTURE SPARSE CLIPPER WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
W/NW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER ANY
CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE STORM WOULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ALOFT WILL FLATTEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FILLS AND HEADS
NORTHWARD AND ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND DIGS
A TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION
WILL WEAKENING AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE. TEMPERATURES
ARE OUR REGION WILL MODERATE SUNDAY AND NOT BE BITTERLY COLD LIKE
SATURDAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES WITH MUCH WEAKER
WINDS.

AT THIS TIME...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD
AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST MONDAY MORNING THEN HEAD NORTHEASTWARD
PASSING SOUTH OF CAPE COD. OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
CONTINUE WELL INTO MONDAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK ALL
SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHER THAN CLIMO
SNOW RATIOS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES SHOW SPREAD IN THEIR
FORECAST IN REGARDS TO STORM TRACK AND QPF AMOUNTS. THERE IS MODEL
CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME THE SYSTEM ALOFT REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND
DOES NOT CLOSE OFF AND DOES NOT BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED UNTIL ITS
WELL OFFSHORE. ANY CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE LOW WILL
HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. THE GRADIENT OF
SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE PROBABILISTIC
SNOWFALL GUIDANCE FOR ALBANY RANGES FROM AS LITTLE AS 1 TO 2
INCHES UP TO AROUND 10 INCHES.

BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK AND EXPECTED QPF HAVE OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK SEGMENTED AS FOLLOWS...

SIGNIFICANT (WARNING LEVEL) SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES...EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND THE SOUTHERN TACONICS.

MODERATE (ADVISORY LEVEL) SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...GREATER CAPITAL
REGION...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...AND THE NORTHERN TACONICS AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

LIGHT TO POSSIBLE MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALONG
WITH A FRESH SNOWCOVER...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DROP TO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH 10
DEGREES BELOW ZERO AND COLDER FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90. MAY NEED ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH...DRY AND COLD WEATHER
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS. LOW TEMPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS...WITH A FEW SPOTS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THESE TEMPS WON/T BE AS COLD AS THEY COULD BE...DUE TO INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WIND.

A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
CLIPPER STORM WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA...SO ANY FORCING WILL ONLY BE WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD/ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY...WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.  TEMPS WILL BE WARMER AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S. MINS LOOK TO BE IN THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND HOW QUICKLY IT CLEARS OUT BEHIND IT.

ANOTHER VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR THE
LATE WEEK PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR MAY NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A COASTAL WAVE LOOK TO BE MOVING UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE IN THE WEEK AS WELL...BUT IT SHOULD BE
WELL OFFSHORE AND HAVE NO IMPACT ON THE REGION...AS WE WILL BE IN
THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. TEMPS LOOK TO
BE IN THE 20S FOR THURSDAY...BUT WILL DROP TO -10 TO 10 ABOVE FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND ONLY REACH THE TEENS FOR FRIDAY. IT LOOKS
FAIRLY COLD ONCE AGAIN FOR FRI NIGHT AS WELL WITH MANY LOCATIONS AT
OR BELOW ZERO. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD TEMPS...IT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY THURS/FRI...AS THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE...KEEPING SKIES MAINLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE STRENGTHENING WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND COAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES SAT NT.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU. AT KPSF...OCCASIONAL CLOUDS MAY PERSIST...POSSIBLY
INTO THE MVFR RANGE.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES...WITH JUST A FEW STRATOCU
CLOUDS AROUND BY LATE IN THE DAY. STRATOCU WILL THEN INCREASE SAT
EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY OVERNIGHT. W/NW WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF
SATURDAY. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE GUSTS BETWEEN 08Z-
12Z/SAT BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 12Z-14Z/SAT. WEST
WINDS WILL DECREASE TO UNDER 10 KT AROUND SUNSET AND SHOULD
CONTINUE LIGHT FROM THE WEST INTO SAT NT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SNOW SHOWERS INTO EVENING WITH GENERALLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.

A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MODERATE
TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. ANY CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK
OF THE STORM WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 310513
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1213 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD
WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BRIEFLY IN
CONTROL TO START THE WEEKEND...THEN A CLIPPER LOW SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT TO
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE STORM TRACK IS STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
 A WIND CHILL WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY FOR
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...

     A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE REST OF THE FCST AREA
EXCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS UNTIL 11 AM
SATURDAY...

AS OF 1212 AM EST...A BITTERLY COLD AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...A STRONG
NW FLOW IS IN PLACE AT BOTH THE SFC AND MID LEVELS.

SKIES ARE ALREADY CLEARING OUT...AND MOST AREAS LOOK TO BE MOSTLY
CLEAR TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN BTWN THE SFC ANTICYCLONE
NEAR THE OH VALLEY...AND THE CYCLONE DEEPENING S/SE OF NOVA
SCOTIA. THE H850 WINDS INCREASE TO 40-55+KTS...H925 WINDS 30-50
KTS IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER
PROFILES SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME 30-35+ KT GUSTS MIXING DOWN
ACROSS LOCATIONS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION S/SE. EXPECT BLUSTERY NW
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE. H850
TEMPS PLUMMET TO -15C TO -20C FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...AND -12C TO -15C SOUTH AND EAST.

OUR MIN TEMPS FAVOR THE COLDER METMOS VALUES WITH LOWS 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO OVER THE SRN DACKS....ZERO TO 10 BELOW OVER THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN CATSKILLS...N-CNTRL TACONICS...LAKE
GEORGE NRN SARATOGA REGION...SRN VT WEST OF THE SRN GREENS...AND
BERKS.  EXPECT ZERO TO 5 ABOVE READINGS OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN TACONICS...AND NW CT.

THESE COLD TEMPS COMBINED WITH THE WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OR
APPARENT TEMPS OF 30 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW ZERO OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SRN DACKS...AND 15 TO 29 DEGREES BELOW ZERO OVER THE REST OF THE
FCST AREA.

TOMORROW...NASTY WIND CHILLS CONTINUE MOST OF THE MORNING...AND THE
HEADLINES RUN TO 11 AM.  THE CYCLONE BECOMES OCCLUDED NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND.  THE SFC HIGH ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY THE AFTERNOON.  MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL BE
15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  OVERALL...DOWNRIGHT FRIGID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES. TEENS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA.  THE WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN LATE IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER MOISTURE SPARSE CLIPPER WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
W/NW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER ANY
CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE STORM WOULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ALOFT WILL FLATTEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FILLS AND HEADS
NORTHWARD AND ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND DIGS
A TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION
WILL WEAKENING AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE. TEMPERATURES
ARE OUR REGION WILL MODERATE SUNDAY AND NOT BE BITTERLY COLD LIKE
SATURDAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES WITH MUCH WEAKER
WINDS.

AT THIS TIME...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD
AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST MONDAY MORNING THEN HEAD NORTHEASTWARD
PASSING SOUTH OF CAPE COD. OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
CONTINUE WELL INTO MONDAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK ALL
SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHER THAN CLIMO
SNOW RATIOS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES SHOW SPREAD IN THEIR
FORECAST IN REGARDS TO STORM TRACK AND QPF AMOUNTS. THERE IS MODEL
CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME THE SYSTEM ALOFT REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND
DOES NOT CLOSE OFF AND DOES NOT BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED UNTIL ITS
WELL OFFSHORE. ANY CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE LOW WILL
HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. THE GRADIENT OF
SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE PROBABILISTIC
SNOWFALL GUIDANCE FOR ALBANY RANGES FROM AS LITTLE AS 1 TO 2
INCHES UP TO AROUND 10 INCHES.

BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK AND EXPECTED QPF HAVE OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK SEGMENTED AS FOLLOWS...

SIGNIFICANT (WARNING LEVEL) SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES...EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND THE SOUTHERN TACONICS.

MODERATE (ADVISORY LEVEL) SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...GREATER CAPITAL
REGION...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...AND THE NORTHERN TACONICS AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

LIGHT TO POSSIBLE MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALONG
WITH A FRESH SNOWCOVER...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DROP TO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH 10
DEGREES BELOW ZERO AND COLDER FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90. MAY NEED ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH...DRY AND COLD WEATHER
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS. LOW TEMPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS...WITH A FEW SPOTS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THESE TEMPS WON/T BE AS COLD AS THEY COULD BE...DUE TO INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WIND.

A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
CLIPPER STORM WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA...SO ANY FORCING WILL ONLY BE WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD/ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY...WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.  TEMPS WILL BE WARMER AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S. MINS LOOK TO BE IN THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND HOW QUICKLY IT CLEARS OUT BEHIND IT.

ANOTHER VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR THE
LATE WEEK PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR MAY NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A COASTAL WAVE LOOK TO BE MOVING UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE IN THE WEEK AS WELL...BUT IT SHOULD BE
WELL OFFSHORE AND HAVE NO IMPACT ON THE REGION...AS WE WILL BE IN
THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. TEMPS LOOK TO
BE IN THE 20S FOR THURSDAY...BUT WILL DROP TO -10 TO 10 ABOVE FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND ONLY REACH THE TEENS FOR FRIDAY. IT LOOKS
FAIRLY COLD ONCE AGAIN FOR FRI NIGHT AS WELL WITH MANY LOCATIONS AT
OR BELOW ZERO. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD TEMPS...IT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY THURS/FRI...AS THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE...KEEPING SKIES MAINLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO VFR AT THE VALLEY
TERMINALS...BUT REMAIN IFR AT KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE SNOWFALL. THIS
SNOW LOOKS TO END AT KPSF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALLOWING VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN THERE AS WELL. ANY REMAINING CLOUDS FOR THE
TAF SITES LOOK TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES
BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
SITES THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH JUST A FEW STRATOCU
CLOUDS AROUND BY LATE IN THE DAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY OVERNIGHT. W-NW WINDS THIS EVENING
OF AROUND 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT STILL REMAIN AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25
KTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN
AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SNOW SHOWERS INTO EVENING WITH GENERALLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.

A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MODERATE
TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. ANY CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK
OF THE STORM WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 310513
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1213 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD
WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BRIEFLY IN
CONTROL TO START THE WEEKEND...THEN A CLIPPER LOW SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT TO
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE STORM TRACK IS STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
 A WIND CHILL WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY FOR
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...

     A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE REST OF THE FCST AREA
EXCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS UNTIL 11 AM
SATURDAY...

AS OF 1212 AM EST...A BITTERLY COLD AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...A STRONG
NW FLOW IS IN PLACE AT BOTH THE SFC AND MID LEVELS.

SKIES ARE ALREADY CLEARING OUT...AND MOST AREAS LOOK TO BE MOSTLY
CLEAR TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN BTWN THE SFC ANTICYCLONE
NEAR THE OH VALLEY...AND THE CYCLONE DEEPENING S/SE OF NOVA
SCOTIA. THE H850 WINDS INCREASE TO 40-55+KTS...H925 WINDS 30-50
KTS IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER
PROFILES SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME 30-35+ KT GUSTS MIXING DOWN
ACROSS LOCATIONS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION S/SE. EXPECT BLUSTERY NW
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE. H850
TEMPS PLUMMET TO -15C TO -20C FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...AND -12C TO -15C SOUTH AND EAST.

OUR MIN TEMPS FAVOR THE COLDER METMOS VALUES WITH LOWS 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO OVER THE SRN DACKS....ZERO TO 10 BELOW OVER THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN CATSKILLS...N-CNTRL TACONICS...LAKE
GEORGE NRN SARATOGA REGION...SRN VT WEST OF THE SRN GREENS...AND
BERKS.  EXPECT ZERO TO 5 ABOVE READINGS OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN TACONICS...AND NW CT.

THESE COLD TEMPS COMBINED WITH THE WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OR
APPARENT TEMPS OF 30 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW ZERO OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SRN DACKS...AND 15 TO 29 DEGREES BELOW ZERO OVER THE REST OF THE
FCST AREA.

TOMORROW...NASTY WIND CHILLS CONTINUE MOST OF THE MORNING...AND THE
HEADLINES RUN TO 11 AM.  THE CYCLONE BECOMES OCCLUDED NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND.  THE SFC HIGH ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY THE AFTERNOON.  MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL BE
15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  OVERALL...DOWNRIGHT FRIGID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES. TEENS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA.  THE WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN LATE IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER MOISTURE SPARSE CLIPPER WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
W/NW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER ANY
CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE STORM WOULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ALOFT WILL FLATTEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FILLS AND HEADS
NORTHWARD AND ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND DIGS
A TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION
WILL WEAKENING AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE. TEMPERATURES
ARE OUR REGION WILL MODERATE SUNDAY AND NOT BE BITTERLY COLD LIKE
SATURDAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES WITH MUCH WEAKER
WINDS.

AT THIS TIME...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD
AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST MONDAY MORNING THEN HEAD NORTHEASTWARD
PASSING SOUTH OF CAPE COD. OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
CONTINUE WELL INTO MONDAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK ALL
SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHER THAN CLIMO
SNOW RATIOS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES SHOW SPREAD IN THEIR
FORECAST IN REGARDS TO STORM TRACK AND QPF AMOUNTS. THERE IS MODEL
CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME THE SYSTEM ALOFT REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND
DOES NOT CLOSE OFF AND DOES NOT BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED UNTIL ITS
WELL OFFSHORE. ANY CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE LOW WILL
HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. THE GRADIENT OF
SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE PROBABILISTIC
SNOWFALL GUIDANCE FOR ALBANY RANGES FROM AS LITTLE AS 1 TO 2
INCHES UP TO AROUND 10 INCHES.

BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK AND EXPECTED QPF HAVE OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK SEGMENTED AS FOLLOWS...

SIGNIFICANT (WARNING LEVEL) SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES...EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND THE SOUTHERN TACONICS.

MODERATE (ADVISORY LEVEL) SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...GREATER CAPITAL
REGION...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...AND THE NORTHERN TACONICS AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

LIGHT TO POSSIBLE MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALONG
WITH A FRESH SNOWCOVER...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DROP TO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH 10
DEGREES BELOW ZERO AND COLDER FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90. MAY NEED ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH...DRY AND COLD WEATHER
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS. LOW TEMPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS...WITH A FEW SPOTS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THESE TEMPS WON/T BE AS COLD AS THEY COULD BE...DUE TO INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WIND.

A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
CLIPPER STORM WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA...SO ANY FORCING WILL ONLY BE WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD/ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY...WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.  TEMPS WILL BE WARMER AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S. MINS LOOK TO BE IN THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND HOW QUICKLY IT CLEARS OUT BEHIND IT.

ANOTHER VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR THE
LATE WEEK PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR MAY NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A COASTAL WAVE LOOK TO BE MOVING UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE IN THE WEEK AS WELL...BUT IT SHOULD BE
WELL OFFSHORE AND HAVE NO IMPACT ON THE REGION...AS WE WILL BE IN
THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. TEMPS LOOK TO
BE IN THE 20S FOR THURSDAY...BUT WILL DROP TO -10 TO 10 ABOVE FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND ONLY REACH THE TEENS FOR FRIDAY. IT LOOKS
FAIRLY COLD ONCE AGAIN FOR FRI NIGHT AS WELL WITH MANY LOCATIONS AT
OR BELOW ZERO. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD TEMPS...IT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY THURS/FRI...AS THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE...KEEPING SKIES MAINLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO VFR AT THE VALLEY
TERMINALS...BUT REMAIN IFR AT KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE SNOWFALL. THIS
SNOW LOOKS TO END AT KPSF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALLOWING VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN THERE AS WELL. ANY REMAINING CLOUDS FOR THE
TAF SITES LOOK TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES
BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
SITES THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH JUST A FEW STRATOCU
CLOUDS AROUND BY LATE IN THE DAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY OVERNIGHT. W-NW WINDS THIS EVENING
OF AROUND 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT STILL REMAIN AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25
KTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN
AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SNOW SHOWERS INTO EVENING WITH GENERALLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.

A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MODERATE
TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. ANY CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK
OF THE STORM WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 310513
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1213 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD
WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BRIEFLY IN
CONTROL TO START THE WEEKEND...THEN A CLIPPER LOW SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT TO
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE STORM TRACK IS STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
 A WIND CHILL WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY FOR
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...

     A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE REST OF THE FCST AREA
EXCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS UNTIL 11 AM
SATURDAY...

AS OF 1212 AM EST...A BITTERLY COLD AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...A STRONG
NW FLOW IS IN PLACE AT BOTH THE SFC AND MID LEVELS.

SKIES ARE ALREADY CLEARING OUT...AND MOST AREAS LOOK TO BE MOSTLY
CLEAR TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN BTWN THE SFC ANTICYCLONE
NEAR THE OH VALLEY...AND THE CYCLONE DEEPENING S/SE OF NOVA
SCOTIA. THE H850 WINDS INCREASE TO 40-55+KTS...H925 WINDS 30-50
KTS IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER
PROFILES SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME 30-35+ KT GUSTS MIXING DOWN
ACROSS LOCATIONS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION S/SE. EXPECT BLUSTERY NW
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE. H850
TEMPS PLUMMET TO -15C TO -20C FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...AND -12C TO -15C SOUTH AND EAST.

OUR MIN TEMPS FAVOR THE COLDER METMOS VALUES WITH LOWS 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO OVER THE SRN DACKS....ZERO TO 10 BELOW OVER THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN CATSKILLS...N-CNTRL TACONICS...LAKE
GEORGE NRN SARATOGA REGION...SRN VT WEST OF THE SRN GREENS...AND
BERKS.  EXPECT ZERO TO 5 ABOVE READINGS OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN TACONICS...AND NW CT.

THESE COLD TEMPS COMBINED WITH THE WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OR
APPARENT TEMPS OF 30 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW ZERO OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SRN DACKS...AND 15 TO 29 DEGREES BELOW ZERO OVER THE REST OF THE
FCST AREA.

TOMORROW...NASTY WIND CHILLS CONTINUE MOST OF THE MORNING...AND THE
HEADLINES RUN TO 11 AM.  THE CYCLONE BECOMES OCCLUDED NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND.  THE SFC HIGH ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY THE AFTERNOON.  MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL BE
15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  OVERALL...DOWNRIGHT FRIGID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES. TEENS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA.  THE WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN LATE IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER MOISTURE SPARSE CLIPPER WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
W/NW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER ANY
CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE STORM WOULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ALOFT WILL FLATTEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FILLS AND HEADS
NORTHWARD AND ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND DIGS
A TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION
WILL WEAKENING AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE. TEMPERATURES
ARE OUR REGION WILL MODERATE SUNDAY AND NOT BE BITTERLY COLD LIKE
SATURDAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES WITH MUCH WEAKER
WINDS.

AT THIS TIME...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD
AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST MONDAY MORNING THEN HEAD NORTHEASTWARD
PASSING SOUTH OF CAPE COD. OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
CONTINUE WELL INTO MONDAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK ALL
SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHER THAN CLIMO
SNOW RATIOS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES SHOW SPREAD IN THEIR
FORECAST IN REGARDS TO STORM TRACK AND QPF AMOUNTS. THERE IS MODEL
CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME THE SYSTEM ALOFT REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND
DOES NOT CLOSE OFF AND DOES NOT BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED UNTIL ITS
WELL OFFSHORE. ANY CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE LOW WILL
HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. THE GRADIENT OF
SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE PROBABILISTIC
SNOWFALL GUIDANCE FOR ALBANY RANGES FROM AS LITTLE AS 1 TO 2
INCHES UP TO AROUND 10 INCHES.

BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK AND EXPECTED QPF HAVE OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK SEGMENTED AS FOLLOWS...

SIGNIFICANT (WARNING LEVEL) SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES...EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND THE SOUTHERN TACONICS.

MODERATE (ADVISORY LEVEL) SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...GREATER CAPITAL
REGION...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...AND THE NORTHERN TACONICS AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

LIGHT TO POSSIBLE MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALONG
WITH A FRESH SNOWCOVER...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DROP TO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH 10
DEGREES BELOW ZERO AND COLDER FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90. MAY NEED ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH...DRY AND COLD WEATHER
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS. LOW TEMPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS...WITH A FEW SPOTS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THESE TEMPS WON/T BE AS COLD AS THEY COULD BE...DUE TO INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WIND.

A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
CLIPPER STORM WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA...SO ANY FORCING WILL ONLY BE WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD/ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY...WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.  TEMPS WILL BE WARMER AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S. MINS LOOK TO BE IN THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND HOW QUICKLY IT CLEARS OUT BEHIND IT.

ANOTHER VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR THE
LATE WEEK PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR MAY NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A COASTAL WAVE LOOK TO BE MOVING UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE IN THE WEEK AS WELL...BUT IT SHOULD BE
WELL OFFSHORE AND HAVE NO IMPACT ON THE REGION...AS WE WILL BE IN
THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. TEMPS LOOK TO
BE IN THE 20S FOR THURSDAY...BUT WILL DROP TO -10 TO 10 ABOVE FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND ONLY REACH THE TEENS FOR FRIDAY. IT LOOKS
FAIRLY COLD ONCE AGAIN FOR FRI NIGHT AS WELL WITH MANY LOCATIONS AT
OR BELOW ZERO. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD TEMPS...IT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY THURS/FRI...AS THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE...KEEPING SKIES MAINLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO VFR AT THE VALLEY
TERMINALS...BUT REMAIN IFR AT KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE SNOWFALL. THIS
SNOW LOOKS TO END AT KPSF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALLOWING VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN THERE AS WELL. ANY REMAINING CLOUDS FOR THE
TAF SITES LOOK TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES
BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
SITES THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH JUST A FEW STRATOCU
CLOUDS AROUND BY LATE IN THE DAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY OVERNIGHT. W-NW WINDS THIS EVENING
OF AROUND 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT STILL REMAIN AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25
KTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN
AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SNOW SHOWERS INTO EVENING WITH GENERALLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.

A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MODERATE
TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. ANY CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK
OF THE STORM WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 310513
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1213 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD
WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BRIEFLY IN
CONTROL TO START THE WEEKEND...THEN A CLIPPER LOW SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT TO
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE STORM TRACK IS STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
 A WIND CHILL WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY FOR
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...

     A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE REST OF THE FCST AREA
EXCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS UNTIL 11 AM
SATURDAY...

AS OF 1212 AM EST...A BITTERLY COLD AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...A STRONG
NW FLOW IS IN PLACE AT BOTH THE SFC AND MID LEVELS.

SKIES ARE ALREADY CLEARING OUT...AND MOST AREAS LOOK TO BE MOSTLY
CLEAR TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN BTWN THE SFC ANTICYCLONE
NEAR THE OH VALLEY...AND THE CYCLONE DEEPENING S/SE OF NOVA
SCOTIA. THE H850 WINDS INCREASE TO 40-55+KTS...H925 WINDS 30-50
KTS IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER
PROFILES SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME 30-35+ KT GUSTS MIXING DOWN
ACROSS LOCATIONS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION S/SE. EXPECT BLUSTERY NW
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE. H850
TEMPS PLUMMET TO -15C TO -20C FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...AND -12C TO -15C SOUTH AND EAST.

OUR MIN TEMPS FAVOR THE COLDER METMOS VALUES WITH LOWS 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO OVER THE SRN DACKS....ZERO TO 10 BELOW OVER THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN CATSKILLS...N-CNTRL TACONICS...LAKE
GEORGE NRN SARATOGA REGION...SRN VT WEST OF THE SRN GREENS...AND
BERKS.  EXPECT ZERO TO 5 ABOVE READINGS OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN TACONICS...AND NW CT.

THESE COLD TEMPS COMBINED WITH THE WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OR
APPARENT TEMPS OF 30 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW ZERO OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SRN DACKS...AND 15 TO 29 DEGREES BELOW ZERO OVER THE REST OF THE
FCST AREA.

TOMORROW...NASTY WIND CHILLS CONTINUE MOST OF THE MORNING...AND THE
HEADLINES RUN TO 11 AM.  THE CYCLONE BECOMES OCCLUDED NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND.  THE SFC HIGH ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY THE AFTERNOON.  MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL BE
15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  OVERALL...DOWNRIGHT FRIGID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES. TEENS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA.  THE WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN LATE IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER MOISTURE SPARSE CLIPPER WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
W/NW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER ANY
CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE STORM WOULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ALOFT WILL FLATTEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FILLS AND HEADS
NORTHWARD AND ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND DIGS
A TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION
WILL WEAKENING AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE. TEMPERATURES
ARE OUR REGION WILL MODERATE SUNDAY AND NOT BE BITTERLY COLD LIKE
SATURDAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES WITH MUCH WEAKER
WINDS.

AT THIS TIME...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD
AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST MONDAY MORNING THEN HEAD NORTHEASTWARD
PASSING SOUTH OF CAPE COD. OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
CONTINUE WELL INTO MONDAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK ALL
SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHER THAN CLIMO
SNOW RATIOS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES SHOW SPREAD IN THEIR
FORECAST IN REGARDS TO STORM TRACK AND QPF AMOUNTS. THERE IS MODEL
CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME THE SYSTEM ALOFT REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND
DOES NOT CLOSE OFF AND DOES NOT BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED UNTIL ITS
WELL OFFSHORE. ANY CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE LOW WILL
HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. THE GRADIENT OF
SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE PROBABILISTIC
SNOWFALL GUIDANCE FOR ALBANY RANGES FROM AS LITTLE AS 1 TO 2
INCHES UP TO AROUND 10 INCHES.

BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK AND EXPECTED QPF HAVE OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK SEGMENTED AS FOLLOWS...

SIGNIFICANT (WARNING LEVEL) SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES...EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND THE SOUTHERN TACONICS.

MODERATE (ADVISORY LEVEL) SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...GREATER CAPITAL
REGION...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...AND THE NORTHERN TACONICS AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

LIGHT TO POSSIBLE MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALONG
WITH A FRESH SNOWCOVER...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DROP TO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH 10
DEGREES BELOW ZERO AND COLDER FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90. MAY NEED ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH...DRY AND COLD WEATHER
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS. LOW TEMPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS...WITH A FEW SPOTS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THESE TEMPS WON/T BE AS COLD AS THEY COULD BE...DUE TO INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WIND.

A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
CLIPPER STORM WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA...SO ANY FORCING WILL ONLY BE WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD/ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY...WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.  TEMPS WILL BE WARMER AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S. MINS LOOK TO BE IN THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND HOW QUICKLY IT CLEARS OUT BEHIND IT.

ANOTHER VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR THE
LATE WEEK PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR MAY NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A COASTAL WAVE LOOK TO BE MOVING UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE IN THE WEEK AS WELL...BUT IT SHOULD BE
WELL OFFSHORE AND HAVE NO IMPACT ON THE REGION...AS WE WILL BE IN
THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. TEMPS LOOK TO
BE IN THE 20S FOR THURSDAY...BUT WILL DROP TO -10 TO 10 ABOVE FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND ONLY REACH THE TEENS FOR FRIDAY. IT LOOKS
FAIRLY COLD ONCE AGAIN FOR FRI NIGHT AS WELL WITH MANY LOCATIONS AT
OR BELOW ZERO. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD TEMPS...IT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY THURS/FRI...AS THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE...KEEPING SKIES MAINLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO VFR AT THE VALLEY
TERMINALS...BUT REMAIN IFR AT KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE SNOWFALL. THIS
SNOW LOOKS TO END AT KPSF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALLOWING VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN THERE AS WELL. ANY REMAINING CLOUDS FOR THE
TAF SITES LOOK TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES
BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
SITES THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH JUST A FEW STRATOCU
CLOUDS AROUND BY LATE IN THE DAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY OVERNIGHT. W-NW WINDS THIS EVENING
OF AROUND 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT STILL REMAIN AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25
KTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN
AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SNOW SHOWERS INTO EVENING WITH GENERALLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.

A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MODERATE
TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. ANY CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK
OF THE STORM WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KBTV 310512
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1212 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL END TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM
NEW ENGLAND. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND BITTERLY COLD WIND
CHILLS WILL FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES OF
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1212 AM EST SATURDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORY
CONTINUES THROUGH 1 PM SATURDAY.

SURFACE OBS SHOW UPSLOPE SNOW CONTINUES OVER AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN. IR SATELLITE AND SUPPORTED BY SURFACE OBS, SHOW CLEARING
SKIES IN ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OF
NORTHERN NY. ADIRONDACKS, CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND AREAS EAST CONTINUE
TO HAVE MOISTURE AND THEREFORE OVC SKIES WHICH WILL BE SLOWER TO
CLEAR AS MID-UPPER TROUGH IS BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED...SLOWING
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF COASTAL LOW.

WIND FORECAST OF 10 TO 20 KTS AND TEMP FORECAST STILL SUPPORT
WIND CHILL WARNING FOR NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY...AND ADVISORY FOR CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EAST. BUFKIT SHOWS
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS IN EASTERN VERMONT IN THE
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. IRIS
SHOWING SOME AREAS IN VT ALREADY SEEING WIND CHILLS OF -20F AND
COLDER. MANY SURFACE OBS ACROSS NORTHERN NY, MAINLY WEST OF
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ALREADY SHOWING TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO. SO MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NEGATIVE
SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS VT LOOK TO BE ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNINGS/ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.

COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING WITH RATHER TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 925 MB TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE
TEENS TO -20S AND WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
CONTINUE. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND
LOWER TEENS SOUTH WITH WIND CHILLS 15 TO 30 BELOW THROUGH THE
MORNING. SOME MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT...OTHERWISE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHRINKS SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER
WAVE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS BACK INTO THE REGION
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEGATIVE
MID TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT. RETURN TO NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ON SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH. CLOUDS RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. HAVE
INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT BETTER CHANCES
FOR SNOW WILL LIE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. MIN TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE ACTIVE WEATHER AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN RIDGE
INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER
WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BY
FRIDAY MORNING ANOTHER LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE ONLY DAY OF
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH A CHANCE AT NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE COLD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...LINGERING MVFR TO INTERVALS OF IFR
VISIBILITY IN LIGHT SNOW TO BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO BTV AND MPV
GIVEN PERSISTENT BLOCKED FLOW. FOR THE BTV TAF HOWEVER, THE MOST
PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWS SHOULD BECOME MORE TIED TO THE WESTERN
SLOPES WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. STRONG CANADIAN RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT. COLD ADVECTION AND DRYING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A RATHER
RAPID CLEARING OF OVC VFR/MVFR CEILINGS TOWARD VFR ALL TERMINALS
BY MORNING. THOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10-12 KTS,
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST GUSTS
TO DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY INTO THE DAY SATURDAY (AS HIGH AS 25
KTS).

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF
REGION. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM 12Z
MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ026-
     027-029>031-034-087.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-
     035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 310512
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1212 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL END TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM
NEW ENGLAND. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND BITTERLY COLD WIND
CHILLS WILL FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES OF
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1212 AM EST SATURDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORY
CONTINUES THROUGH 1 PM SATURDAY.

SURFACE OBS SHOW UPSLOPE SNOW CONTINUES OVER AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN. IR SATELLITE AND SUPPORTED BY SURFACE OBS, SHOW CLEARING
SKIES IN ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OF
NORTHERN NY. ADIRONDACKS, CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND AREAS EAST CONTINUE
TO HAVE MOISTURE AND THEREFORE OVC SKIES WHICH WILL BE SLOWER TO
CLEAR AS MID-UPPER TROUGH IS BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED...SLOWING
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF COASTAL LOW.

WIND FORECAST OF 10 TO 20 KTS AND TEMP FORECAST STILL SUPPORT
WIND CHILL WARNING FOR NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY...AND ADVISORY FOR CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EAST. BUFKIT SHOWS
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS IN EASTERN VERMONT IN THE
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. IRIS
SHOWING SOME AREAS IN VT ALREADY SEEING WIND CHILLS OF -20F AND
COLDER. MANY SURFACE OBS ACROSS NORTHERN NY, MAINLY WEST OF
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ALREADY SHOWING TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO. SO MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NEGATIVE
SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS VT LOOK TO BE ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNINGS/ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.

COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING WITH RATHER TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 925 MB TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE
TEENS TO -20S AND WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
CONTINUE. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND
LOWER TEENS SOUTH WITH WIND CHILLS 15 TO 30 BELOW THROUGH THE
MORNING. SOME MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT...OTHERWISE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHRINKS SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER
WAVE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS BACK INTO THE REGION
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEGATIVE
MID TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT. RETURN TO NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ON SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH. CLOUDS RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. HAVE
INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT BETTER CHANCES
FOR SNOW WILL LIE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. MIN TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE ACTIVE WEATHER AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN RIDGE
INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER
WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BY
FRIDAY MORNING ANOTHER LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE ONLY DAY OF
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH A CHANCE AT NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE COLD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...LINGERING MVFR TO INTERVALS OF IFR
VISIBILITY IN LIGHT SNOW TO BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO BTV AND MPV
GIVEN PERSISTENT BLOCKED FLOW. FOR THE BTV TAF HOWEVER, THE MOST
PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWS SHOULD BECOME MORE TIED TO THE WESTERN
SLOPES WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. STRONG CANADIAN RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT. COLD ADVECTION AND DRYING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A RATHER
RAPID CLEARING OF OVC VFR/MVFR CEILINGS TOWARD VFR ALL TERMINALS
BY MORNING. THOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10-12 KTS,
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST GUSTS
TO DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY INTO THE DAY SATURDAY (AS HIGH AS 25
KTS).

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF
REGION. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM 12Z
MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ026-
     027-029>031-034-087.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-
     035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 310512
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1212 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL END TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM
NEW ENGLAND. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND BITTERLY COLD WIND
CHILLS WILL FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES OF
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1212 AM EST SATURDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORY
CONTINUES THROUGH 1 PM SATURDAY.

SURFACE OBS SHOW UPSLOPE SNOW CONTINUES OVER AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN. IR SATELLITE AND SUPPORTED BY SURFACE OBS, SHOW CLEARING
SKIES IN ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OF
NORTHERN NY. ADIRONDACKS, CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND AREAS EAST CONTINUE
TO HAVE MOISTURE AND THEREFORE OVC SKIES WHICH WILL BE SLOWER TO
CLEAR AS MID-UPPER TROUGH IS BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED...SLOWING
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF COASTAL LOW.

WIND FORECAST OF 10 TO 20 KTS AND TEMP FORECAST STILL SUPPORT
WIND CHILL WARNING FOR NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY...AND ADVISORY FOR CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EAST. BUFKIT SHOWS
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS IN EASTERN VERMONT IN THE
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. IRIS
SHOWING SOME AREAS IN VT ALREADY SEEING WIND CHILLS OF -20F AND
COLDER. MANY SURFACE OBS ACROSS NORTHERN NY, MAINLY WEST OF
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ALREADY SHOWING TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO. SO MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NEGATIVE
SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS VT LOOK TO BE ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNINGS/ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.

COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING WITH RATHER TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 925 MB TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE
TEENS TO -20S AND WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
CONTINUE. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND
LOWER TEENS SOUTH WITH WIND CHILLS 15 TO 30 BELOW THROUGH THE
MORNING. SOME MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT...OTHERWISE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHRINKS SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER
WAVE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS BACK INTO THE REGION
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEGATIVE
MID TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT. RETURN TO NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ON SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH. CLOUDS RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. HAVE
INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT BETTER CHANCES
FOR SNOW WILL LIE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. MIN TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE ACTIVE WEATHER AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN RIDGE
INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER
WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BY
FRIDAY MORNING ANOTHER LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE ONLY DAY OF
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH A CHANCE AT NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE COLD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...LINGERING MVFR TO INTERVALS OF IFR
VISIBILITY IN LIGHT SNOW TO BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO BTV AND MPV
GIVEN PERSISTENT BLOCKED FLOW. FOR THE BTV TAF HOWEVER, THE MOST
PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWS SHOULD BECOME MORE TIED TO THE WESTERN
SLOPES WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. STRONG CANADIAN RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT. COLD ADVECTION AND DRYING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A RATHER
RAPID CLEARING OF OVC VFR/MVFR CEILINGS TOWARD VFR ALL TERMINALS
BY MORNING. THOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10-12 KTS,
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST GUSTS
TO DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY INTO THE DAY SATURDAY (AS HIGH AS 25
KTS).

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF
REGION. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM 12Z
MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ026-
     027-029>031-034-087.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-
     035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 310512
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1212 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL END TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM
NEW ENGLAND. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND BITTERLY COLD WIND
CHILLS WILL FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES OF
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1212 AM EST SATURDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORY
CONTINUES THROUGH 1 PM SATURDAY.

SURFACE OBS SHOW UPSLOPE SNOW CONTINUES OVER AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN. IR SATELLITE AND SUPPORTED BY SURFACE OBS, SHOW CLEARING
SKIES IN ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OF
NORTHERN NY. ADIRONDACKS, CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND AREAS EAST CONTINUE
TO HAVE MOISTURE AND THEREFORE OVC SKIES WHICH WILL BE SLOWER TO
CLEAR AS MID-UPPER TROUGH IS BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED...SLOWING
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF COASTAL LOW.

WIND FORECAST OF 10 TO 20 KTS AND TEMP FORECAST STILL SUPPORT
WIND CHILL WARNING FOR NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY...AND ADVISORY FOR CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EAST. BUFKIT SHOWS
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS IN EASTERN VERMONT IN THE
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. IRIS
SHOWING SOME AREAS IN VT ALREADY SEEING WIND CHILLS OF -20F AND
COLDER. MANY SURFACE OBS ACROSS NORTHERN NY, MAINLY WEST OF
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ALREADY SHOWING TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO. SO MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NEGATIVE
SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS VT LOOK TO BE ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNINGS/ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.

COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING WITH RATHER TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 925 MB TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE
TEENS TO -20S AND WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
CONTINUE. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND
LOWER TEENS SOUTH WITH WIND CHILLS 15 TO 30 BELOW THROUGH THE
MORNING. SOME MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT...OTHERWISE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHRINKS SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER
WAVE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS BACK INTO THE REGION
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEGATIVE
MID TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT. RETURN TO NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ON SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH. CLOUDS RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. HAVE
INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT BETTER CHANCES
FOR SNOW WILL LIE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. MIN TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE ACTIVE WEATHER AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN RIDGE
INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER
WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BY
FRIDAY MORNING ANOTHER LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE ONLY DAY OF
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH A CHANCE AT NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE COLD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...LINGERING MVFR TO INTERVALS OF IFR
VISIBILITY IN LIGHT SNOW TO BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO BTV AND MPV
GIVEN PERSISTENT BLOCKED FLOW. FOR THE BTV TAF HOWEVER, THE MOST
PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWS SHOULD BECOME MORE TIED TO THE WESTERN
SLOPES WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. STRONG CANADIAN RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT. COLD ADVECTION AND DRYING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A RATHER
RAPID CLEARING OF OVC VFR/MVFR CEILINGS TOWARD VFR ALL TERMINALS
BY MORNING. THOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10-12 KTS,
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST GUSTS
TO DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY INTO THE DAY SATURDAY (AS HIGH AS 25
KTS).

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF
REGION. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM 12Z
MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ026-
     027-029>031-034-087.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-
     035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO




000
FXUS61 KBTV 310244
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
944 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL END TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM
NEW ENGLAND. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND BITTERLY COLD WIND
CHILLS WILL FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL.
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 935 PM EST FRIDAY...HAVE CANCELED THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT. WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORY
CONTINUES AS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED.

SNOW CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN TO THE
REGION. SNOW WILL LINGER INTO LATE NIGHT IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN. IR SATELLITE SHOWING CLEAR SKIES IN ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND HOLES IN THE OVERCAST TO DOWNWIND EAST SIDE OF
ADIRONDACKS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS FALLING AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND LOW TEENS IN VERMONT. WITH THIS UPDATE BLENDED SKY FROM RUC13
MODEL WHICH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CLEARING SKIES. PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OUTPACED BY COOLING TEMPS AND INTERPOLATED
OBSERVED TEMPS INTO LATEST LAV GUIDANCE TO LOWER THE HOURLIES. MIN
TEMP FORECAST HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD A DEGREE OR TWO BUT VERY LITTLE
CHANGE. WIND FORECAST OF 10 TO 20 KTS AND TEMP FORECAST STILL
SUPPORT WIND CHILL WARNING FOR NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND ADVISORY FOR CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EAST. BUFKIT
SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS IN EASTERN VERMONT IN
THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. LESS
NEW SNOW IN THAT PART OF THE STATE HOWEVER WOULD MINIMIZE BLOWING
SNOW THREAT OVERNIGHT. REVIEW OF LOW LIGHT WEBCAMS IN THE STATE DO
NOT REVEAL BLOWING SNOW PROBLEMS.

NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED 500 MB TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EXTENDING SOUTH TO JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE SHOWING VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER CLIPPER HAS
LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA, AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT WILL HELP WITH
TRYING AND ENDING SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SECONDARY SURFACE LOW
HAS DEVELOPED JUST OFF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. ARCTIC AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION BEHIND TODAYS COLD FRONT PASSAGE, AND MIN TEMPS WELL
BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT LOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO
ZERO FROM CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. HOWEVER IF CLEARING MOVES
FURTHER EAST INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OR ON INTO VERMONT TEMPS COULD
TANK FURTHER EAST AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNINGS/ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.

COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING WITH RATHER TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 925 MB TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE
TEENS TO -20S AND WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
CONTINUE. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND
LOWER TEENS SOUTH WITH WIND CHILLS 15 TO 30 BELOW THROUGH THE
MORNING. SOME MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT...OTHERWISE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHRINKS SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER
WAVE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS BACK INTO THE REGION
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEGATIVE
MID TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT. RETURN TO NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ON SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH. CLOUDS RETURN SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT BETTER
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL LIE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE ACTIVE WEATHER AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN RIDGE
INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER
WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BY
FRIDAY MORNING ANOTHER LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE ONLY DAY OF
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH A CHANCE AT NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE COLD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...LINGERING MVFR TO INTERVALS OF IFR
VISIBILITY IN LIGHT SNOW TO BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO BTV AND MPV
GIVEN PERSISTENT BLOCKED FLOW. FOR THE BTV TAF HOWEVER, THE MOST
PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWS SHOULD BECOME MORE TIED TO THE WESTERN
SLOPES WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. STRONG CANADIAN RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT. COLD ADVECTION AND DRYING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A RATHER
RAPID CLEARING OF OVC VFR/MVFR CEILINGS TOWARD VFR ALL TERMINALS
BY MORNING. THOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10-12 KTS,
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST GUSTS
TO DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY INTO THE DAY SATURDAY (AS HIGH AS 25
KTS).

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF
REGION. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM 12Z
MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR VTZ001>012-
     016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KBTV 310244
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
944 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL END TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM
NEW ENGLAND. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND BITTERLY COLD WIND
CHILLS WILL FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL.
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 935 PM EST FRIDAY...HAVE CANCELED THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT. WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORY
CONTINUES AS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED.

SNOW CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN TO THE
REGION. SNOW WILL LINGER INTO LATE NIGHT IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN. IR SATELLITE SHOWING CLEAR SKIES IN ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND HOLES IN THE OVERCAST TO DOWNWIND EAST SIDE OF
ADIRONDACKS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS FALLING AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND LOW TEENS IN VERMONT. WITH THIS UPDATE BLENDED SKY FROM RUC13
MODEL WHICH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CLEARING SKIES. PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OUTPACED BY COOLING TEMPS AND INTERPOLATED
OBSERVED TEMPS INTO LATEST LAV GUIDANCE TO LOWER THE HOURLIES. MIN
TEMP FORECAST HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD A DEGREE OR TWO BUT VERY LITTLE
CHANGE. WIND FORECAST OF 10 TO 20 KTS AND TEMP FORECAST STILL
SUPPORT WIND CHILL WARNING FOR NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND ADVISORY FOR CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EAST. BUFKIT
SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS IN EASTERN VERMONT IN
THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. LESS
NEW SNOW IN THAT PART OF THE STATE HOWEVER WOULD MINIMIZE BLOWING
SNOW THREAT OVERNIGHT. REVIEW OF LOW LIGHT WEBCAMS IN THE STATE DO
NOT REVEAL BLOWING SNOW PROBLEMS.

NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED 500 MB TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EXTENDING SOUTH TO JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE SHOWING VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER CLIPPER HAS
LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA, AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT WILL HELP WITH
TRYING AND ENDING SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SECONDARY SURFACE LOW
HAS DEVELOPED JUST OFF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. ARCTIC AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION BEHIND TODAYS COLD FRONT PASSAGE, AND MIN TEMPS WELL
BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT LOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO
ZERO FROM CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. HOWEVER IF CLEARING MOVES
FURTHER EAST INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OR ON INTO VERMONT TEMPS COULD
TANK FURTHER EAST AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNINGS/ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.

COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING WITH RATHER TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 925 MB TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE
TEENS TO -20S AND WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
CONTINUE. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND
LOWER TEENS SOUTH WITH WIND CHILLS 15 TO 30 BELOW THROUGH THE
MORNING. SOME MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT...OTHERWISE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHRINKS SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER
WAVE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS BACK INTO THE REGION
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEGATIVE
MID TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT. RETURN TO NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ON SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH. CLOUDS RETURN SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT BETTER
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL LIE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE ACTIVE WEATHER AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN RIDGE
INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER
WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BY
FRIDAY MORNING ANOTHER LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE ONLY DAY OF
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH A CHANCE AT NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE COLD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...LINGERING MVFR TO INTERVALS OF IFR
VISIBILITY IN LIGHT SNOW TO BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO BTV AND MPV
GIVEN PERSISTENT BLOCKED FLOW. FOR THE BTV TAF HOWEVER, THE MOST
PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWS SHOULD BECOME MORE TIED TO THE WESTERN
SLOPES WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. STRONG CANADIAN RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT. COLD ADVECTION AND DRYING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A RATHER
RAPID CLEARING OF OVC VFR/MVFR CEILINGS TOWARD VFR ALL TERMINALS
BY MORNING. THOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10-12 KTS,
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST GUSTS
TO DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY INTO THE DAY SATURDAY (AS HIGH AS 25
KTS).

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF
REGION. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM 12Z
MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR VTZ001>012-
     016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KBTV 310244
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
944 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL END TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM
NEW ENGLAND. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND BITTERLY COLD WIND
CHILLS WILL FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL.
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 935 PM EST FRIDAY...HAVE CANCELED THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT. WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORY
CONTINUES AS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED.

SNOW CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN TO THE
REGION. SNOW WILL LINGER INTO LATE NIGHT IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN. IR SATELLITE SHOWING CLEAR SKIES IN ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND HOLES IN THE OVERCAST TO DOWNWIND EAST SIDE OF
ADIRONDACKS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS FALLING AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND LOW TEENS IN VERMONT. WITH THIS UPDATE BLENDED SKY FROM RUC13
MODEL WHICH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CLEARING SKIES. PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OUTPACED BY COOLING TEMPS AND INTERPOLATED
OBSERVED TEMPS INTO LATEST LAV GUIDANCE TO LOWER THE HOURLIES. MIN
TEMP FORECAST HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD A DEGREE OR TWO BUT VERY LITTLE
CHANGE. WIND FORECAST OF 10 TO 20 KTS AND TEMP FORECAST STILL
SUPPORT WIND CHILL WARNING FOR NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND ADVISORY FOR CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EAST. BUFKIT
SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS IN EASTERN VERMONT IN
THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. LESS
NEW SNOW IN THAT PART OF THE STATE HOWEVER WOULD MINIMIZE BLOWING
SNOW THREAT OVERNIGHT. REVIEW OF LOW LIGHT WEBCAMS IN THE STATE DO
NOT REVEAL BLOWING SNOW PROBLEMS.

NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED 500 MB TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EXTENDING SOUTH TO JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE SHOWING VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER CLIPPER HAS
LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA, AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT WILL HELP WITH
TRYING AND ENDING SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SECONDARY SURFACE LOW
HAS DEVELOPED JUST OFF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. ARCTIC AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION BEHIND TODAYS COLD FRONT PASSAGE, AND MIN TEMPS WELL
BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT LOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO
ZERO FROM CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. HOWEVER IF CLEARING MOVES
FURTHER EAST INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OR ON INTO VERMONT TEMPS COULD
TANK FURTHER EAST AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNINGS/ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.

COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING WITH RATHER TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 925 MB TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE
TEENS TO -20S AND WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
CONTINUE. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND
LOWER TEENS SOUTH WITH WIND CHILLS 15 TO 30 BELOW THROUGH THE
MORNING. SOME MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT...OTHERWISE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHRINKS SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER
WAVE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS BACK INTO THE REGION
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEGATIVE
MID TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT. RETURN TO NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ON SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH. CLOUDS RETURN SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT BETTER
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL LIE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE ACTIVE WEATHER AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN RIDGE
INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER
WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BY
FRIDAY MORNING ANOTHER LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE ONLY DAY OF
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH A CHANCE AT NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE COLD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...LINGERING MVFR TO INTERVALS OF IFR
VISIBILITY IN LIGHT SNOW TO BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO BTV AND MPV
GIVEN PERSISTENT BLOCKED FLOW. FOR THE BTV TAF HOWEVER, THE MOST
PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWS SHOULD BECOME MORE TIED TO THE WESTERN
SLOPES WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. STRONG CANADIAN RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT. COLD ADVECTION AND DRYING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A RATHER
RAPID CLEARING OF OVC VFR/MVFR CEILINGS TOWARD VFR ALL TERMINALS
BY MORNING. THOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10-12 KTS,
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST GUSTS
TO DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY INTO THE DAY SATURDAY (AS HIGH AS 25
KTS).

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF
REGION. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM 12Z
MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR VTZ001>012-
     016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KBTV 310244
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
944 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL END TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM
NEW ENGLAND. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND BITTERLY COLD WIND
CHILLS WILL FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL.
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 935 PM EST FRIDAY...HAVE CANCELED THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT. WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORY
CONTINUES AS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED.

SNOW CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN TO THE
REGION. SNOW WILL LINGER INTO LATE NIGHT IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN. IR SATELLITE SHOWING CLEAR SKIES IN ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND HOLES IN THE OVERCAST TO DOWNWIND EAST SIDE OF
ADIRONDACKS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS FALLING AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND LOW TEENS IN VERMONT. WITH THIS UPDATE BLENDED SKY FROM RUC13
MODEL WHICH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CLEARING SKIES. PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OUTPACED BY COOLING TEMPS AND INTERPOLATED
OBSERVED TEMPS INTO LATEST LAV GUIDANCE TO LOWER THE HOURLIES. MIN
TEMP FORECAST HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD A DEGREE OR TWO BUT VERY LITTLE
CHANGE. WIND FORECAST OF 10 TO 20 KTS AND TEMP FORECAST STILL
SUPPORT WIND CHILL WARNING FOR NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND ADVISORY FOR CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EAST. BUFKIT
SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS IN EASTERN VERMONT IN
THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. LESS
NEW SNOW IN THAT PART OF THE STATE HOWEVER WOULD MINIMIZE BLOWING
SNOW THREAT OVERNIGHT. REVIEW OF LOW LIGHT WEBCAMS IN THE STATE DO
NOT REVEAL BLOWING SNOW PROBLEMS.

NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED 500 MB TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EXTENDING SOUTH TO JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE SHOWING VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER CLIPPER HAS
LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA, AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT WILL HELP WITH
TRYING AND ENDING SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SECONDARY SURFACE LOW
HAS DEVELOPED JUST OFF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. ARCTIC AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION BEHIND TODAYS COLD FRONT PASSAGE, AND MIN TEMPS WELL
BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT LOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO
ZERO FROM CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. HOWEVER IF CLEARING MOVES
FURTHER EAST INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OR ON INTO VERMONT TEMPS COULD
TANK FURTHER EAST AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNINGS/ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.

COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING WITH RATHER TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 925 MB TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE
TEENS TO -20S AND WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
CONTINUE. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND
LOWER TEENS SOUTH WITH WIND CHILLS 15 TO 30 BELOW THROUGH THE
MORNING. SOME MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT...OTHERWISE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHRINKS SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER
WAVE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS BACK INTO THE REGION
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEGATIVE
MID TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT. RETURN TO NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ON SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH. CLOUDS RETURN SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT BETTER
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL LIE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE ACTIVE WEATHER AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN RIDGE
INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER
WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BY
FRIDAY MORNING ANOTHER LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE ONLY DAY OF
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH A CHANCE AT NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE COLD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...LINGERING MVFR TO INTERVALS OF IFR
VISIBILITY IN LIGHT SNOW TO BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO BTV AND MPV
GIVEN PERSISTENT BLOCKED FLOW. FOR THE BTV TAF HOWEVER, THE MOST
PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWS SHOULD BECOME MORE TIED TO THE WESTERN
SLOPES WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. STRONG CANADIAN RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT. COLD ADVECTION AND DRYING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A RATHER
RAPID CLEARING OF OVC VFR/MVFR CEILINGS TOWARD VFR ALL TERMINALS
BY MORNING. THOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10-12 KTS,
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST GUSTS
TO DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY INTO THE DAY SATURDAY (AS HIGH AS 25
KTS).

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF
REGION. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM 12Z
MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR VTZ001>012-
     016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KALY 310228
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
928 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD
WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BRIEFLY IN
CONTROL TO START THE WEEKEND...THEN A CLIPPER LOW SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT TO
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE STORM TRACK IS STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
...A WIND CHILL WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TONIGHT TO 11 AM
SATURDAY FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...

...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE REST OF THE FCST AREA
EXCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS 6 PM TONIGHT UNTIL
11 AM SATURDAY...

AS OF 928 PM EST...A BITTERLY COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...A STRONG NW FLOW
IS IN PLACE AT BOTH THE SFC AND MID LEVELS. WITH DIMINISHING
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...UPSLOPE SNOWFALL IS BASICALLY DONE
ACROSS THE GREENS...TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BUT ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL LOOKS TO HAVE FINISHED.

ELSEWHERE...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS...SCHOHARIE
COUNTY AND INTO THE HELDERBERGS. THESE HAVE WEAKENED AS WELL...AND
ARE BASICALLY NO MORE THAN JUST FLURRIES AT THIS TIME. THESE LOOK
TO END SHORTLY DUE TO THE LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SKIES ARE ALREADY CLEARING
OUT FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY...AND MOST AREAS LOOK TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN BTWN THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE OH VALLEY...AND THE CYCLONE DEEPENING S/SE OF
NOVA SCOTIA. THE H850 WINDS INCREASE TO 40-55+KTS...H925 WINDS
30-50 KTS IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER
PROFILES SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME 30-35+ KT GUSTS MIXING DOWN
ACROSS LOCATIONS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION S/SE. EXPECT BLUSTERY NW
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE. H850
TEMPS PLUMMET TO -15C TO -20C FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...AND -12C TO -15C SOUTH AND EAST.

OUR MIN TEMPS FAVOR THE COLDER METMOS VALUES WITH LOWS 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO OVER THE SRN DACKS....ZERO TO 10 BELOW OVER THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN CATSKILLS...N-CNTRL TACONICS...LAKE
GEORGE NRN SARATOGA REGION...SRN VT WEST OF THE SRN GREENS...AND
BERKS.  EXPECT ZERO TO 5 ABOVE READINGS OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN TACONICS...AND NW CT.

THESE COLD TEMPS COMBINED WITH THE WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OR
APPARENT TEMPS OF 30 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW ZERO OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SRN DACKS...AND 15 TO 29 DEGREES BELOW ZERO OVER THE REST OF THE
FCST AREA.

TOMORROW...NASTY WIND CHILLS CONTINUE MOST OF THE MORNING...AND THE
HEADLINES RUN TO 11 AM.  THE CYCLONE BECOMES OCCLUDED NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND.  THE SFC HIGH ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY THE AFTERNOON.  MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL BE
15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  OVERALL...DOWNRIGHT FRIGID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES. TEENS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA.  THE WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN LATE IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER MOISTURE SPARSE CLIPPER WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
W/NW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER ANY
CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE STORM WOULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ALOFT WILL FLATTEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FILLS AND HEADS
NORTHWARD AND ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND DIGS
A TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION
WILL WEAKENING AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE. TEMPERATURES
ARE OUR REGION WILL MODERATE SUNDAY AND NOT BE BITTERLY COLD LIKE
SATURDAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES WITH MUCH WEAKER
WINDS.

AT THIS TIME...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD
AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST MONDAY MORNING THEN HEAD NORTHEASTWARD
PASSING SOUTH OF CAPE COD. OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
CONTINUE WELL INTO MONDAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK ALL
SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHER THAN CLIMO
SNOW RATIOS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES SHOW SPREAD IN THEIR
FORECAST IN REGARDS TO STORM TRACK AND QPF AMOUNTS. THERE IS MODEL
CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME THE SYSTEM ALOFT REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND
DOES NOT CLOSE OFF AND DOES NOT BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED UNTIL ITS
WELL OFFSHORE. ANY CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE LOW WILL
HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. THE GRADIENT OF
SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE PROBABILISTIC
SNOWFALL GUIDANCE FOR ALBANY RANGES FROM AS LITTLE AS 1 TO 2
INCHES UP TO AROUND 10 INCHES.

BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK AND EXPECTED QPF HAVE OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK SEGMENTED AS FOLLOWS...

SIGNIFICANT (WARNING LEVEL) SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES...EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND THE SOUTHERN TACONICS.

MODERATE (ADVISORY LEVEL) SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...GREATER CAPITAL
REGION...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...AND THE NORTHERN TACONICS AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

LIGHT TO POSSIBLE MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALONG
WITH A FRESH SNOWCOVER...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DROP TO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH 10
DEGREES BELOW ZERO AND COLDER FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90. MAY NEED ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH...DRY AND COLD WEATHER
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS. LOW TEMPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS...WITH A FEW SPOTS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THESE TEMPS WON/T BE AS COLD AS THEY COULD BE...DUE TO INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WIND.

A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
CLIPPER STORM WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA...SO ANY FORCING WILL ONLY BE WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD/ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY...WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.  TEMPS WILL BE WARMER AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S. MINS LOOK TO BE IN THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND HOW QUICKLY IT CLEARS OUT BEHIND IT.

ANOTHER VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR THE
LATE WEEK PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR MAY NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A COASTAL WAVE LOOK TO BE MOVING UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE IN THE WEEK AS WELL...BUT IT SHOULD BE
WELL OFFSHORE AND HAVE NO IMPACT ON THE REGION...AS WE WILL BE IN
THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. TEMPS LOOK TO
BE IN THE 20S FOR THURSDAY...BUT WILL DROP TO -10 TO 10 ABOVE FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND ONLY REACH THE TEENS FOR FRIDAY. IT LOOKS
FAIRLY COLD ONCE AGAIN FOR FRI NIGHT AS WELL WITH MANY LOCATIONS AT
OR BELOW ZERO. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD TEMPS...IT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY THURS/FRI...AS THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE...KEEPING SKIES MAINLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO VFR AT THE VALLEY
TERMINALS...BUT REMAIN IFR AT KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE SNOWFALL. THIS
SNOW LOOKS TO END AT KPSF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALLOWING VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN THERE AS WELL. ANY REMAINING CLOUDS FOR THE
TAF SITES LOOK TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES
BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
SITES THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH JUST A FEW STRATOCU
CLOUDS AROUND BY LATE IN THE DAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY OVERNIGHT. W-NW WINDS THIS EVENING
OF AROUND 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT STILL REMAIN AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25
KTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN
AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SNOW SHOWERS INTO EVENING WITH GENERALLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.

A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MODERATE
TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. ANY CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK
OF THE STORM WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ038>043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KALY 310228
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
928 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD
WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BRIEFLY IN
CONTROL TO START THE WEEKEND...THEN A CLIPPER LOW SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT TO
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE STORM TRACK IS STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
...A WIND CHILL WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TONIGHT TO 11 AM
SATURDAY FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...

...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE REST OF THE FCST AREA
EXCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS 6 PM TONIGHT UNTIL
11 AM SATURDAY...

AS OF 928 PM EST...A BITTERLY COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...A STRONG NW FLOW
IS IN PLACE AT BOTH THE SFC AND MID LEVELS. WITH DIMINISHING
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...UPSLOPE SNOWFALL IS BASICALLY DONE
ACROSS THE GREENS...TACONICS...AND BERKSHIRES. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BUT ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL LOOKS TO HAVE FINISHED.

ELSEWHERE...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS...SCHOHARIE
COUNTY AND INTO THE HELDERBERGS. THESE HAVE WEAKENED AS WELL...AND
ARE BASICALLY NO MORE THAN JUST FLURRIES AT THIS TIME. THESE LOOK
TO END SHORTLY DUE TO THE LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SKIES ARE ALREADY CLEARING
OUT FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY...AND MOST AREAS LOOK TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN BTWN THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE OH VALLEY...AND THE CYCLONE DEEPENING S/SE OF
NOVA SCOTIA. THE H850 WINDS INCREASE TO 40-55+KTS...H925 WINDS
30-50 KTS IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER
PROFILES SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME 30-35+ KT GUSTS MIXING DOWN
ACROSS LOCATIONS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION S/SE. EXPECT BLUSTERY NW
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE. H850
TEMPS PLUMMET TO -15C TO -20C FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...AND -12C TO -15C SOUTH AND EAST.

OUR MIN TEMPS FAVOR THE COLDER METMOS VALUES WITH LOWS 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO OVER THE SRN DACKS....ZERO TO 10 BELOW OVER THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN CATSKILLS...N-CNTRL TACONICS...LAKE
GEORGE NRN SARATOGA REGION...SRN VT WEST OF THE SRN GREENS...AND
BERKS.  EXPECT ZERO TO 5 ABOVE READINGS OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN TACONICS...AND NW CT.

THESE COLD TEMPS COMBINED WITH THE WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OR
APPARENT TEMPS OF 30 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW ZERO OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SRN DACKS...AND 15 TO 29 DEGREES BELOW ZERO OVER THE REST OF THE
FCST AREA.

TOMORROW...NASTY WIND CHILLS CONTINUE MOST OF THE MORNING...AND THE
HEADLINES RUN TO 11 AM.  THE CYCLONE BECOMES OCCLUDED NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND.  THE SFC HIGH ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY THE AFTERNOON.  MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL BE
15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  OVERALL...DOWNRIGHT FRIGID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES. TEENS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA.  THE WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN LATE IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER MOISTURE SPARSE CLIPPER WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
W/NW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER ANY
CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE STORM WOULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ALOFT WILL FLATTEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FILLS AND HEADS
NORTHWARD AND ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND DIGS
A TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION
WILL WEAKENING AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE. TEMPERATURES
ARE OUR REGION WILL MODERATE SUNDAY AND NOT BE BITTERLY COLD LIKE
SATURDAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES WITH MUCH WEAKER
WINDS.

AT THIS TIME...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD
AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST MONDAY MORNING THEN HEAD NORTHEASTWARD
PASSING SOUTH OF CAPE COD. OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
CONTINUE WELL INTO MONDAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK ALL
SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHER THAN CLIMO
SNOW RATIOS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES SHOW SPREAD IN THEIR
FORECAST IN REGARDS TO STORM TRACK AND QPF AMOUNTS. THERE IS MODEL
CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME THE SYSTEM ALOFT REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND
DOES NOT CLOSE OFF AND DOES NOT BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED UNTIL ITS
WELL OFFSHORE. ANY CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE LOW WILL
HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. THE GRADIENT OF
SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE PROBABILISTIC
SNOWFALL GUIDANCE FOR ALBANY RANGES FROM AS LITTLE AS 1 TO 2
INCHES UP TO AROUND 10 INCHES.

BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK AND EXPECTED QPF HAVE OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK SEGMENTED AS FOLLOWS...

SIGNIFICANT (WARNING LEVEL) SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES...EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND THE SOUTHERN TACONICS.

MODERATE (ADVISORY LEVEL) SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...GREATER CAPITAL
REGION...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...AND THE NORTHERN TACONICS AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

LIGHT TO POSSIBLE MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALONG
WITH A FRESH SNOWCOVER...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DROP TO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH 10
DEGREES BELOW ZERO AND COLDER FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90. MAY NEED ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH...DRY AND COLD WEATHER
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS. LOW TEMPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS...WITH A FEW SPOTS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THESE TEMPS WON/T BE AS COLD AS THEY COULD BE...DUE TO INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WIND.

A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
CLIPPER STORM WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA...SO ANY FORCING WILL ONLY BE WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD/ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY...WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.  TEMPS WILL BE WARMER AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S. MINS LOOK TO BE IN THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND HOW QUICKLY IT CLEARS OUT BEHIND IT.

ANOTHER VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR THE
LATE WEEK PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR MAY NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A COASTAL WAVE LOOK TO BE MOVING UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE IN THE WEEK AS WELL...BUT IT SHOULD BE
WELL OFFSHORE AND HAVE NO IMPACT ON THE REGION...AS WE WILL BE IN
THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. TEMPS LOOK TO
BE IN THE 20S FOR THURSDAY...BUT WILL DROP TO -10 TO 10 ABOVE FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND ONLY REACH THE TEENS FOR FRIDAY. IT LOOKS
FAIRLY COLD ONCE AGAIN FOR FRI NIGHT AS WELL WITH MANY LOCATIONS AT
OR BELOW ZERO. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD TEMPS...IT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY THURS/FRI...AS THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE...KEEPING SKIES MAINLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO VFR AT THE VALLEY
TERMINALS...BUT REMAIN IFR AT KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE SNOWFALL. THIS
SNOW LOOKS TO END AT KPSF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALLOWING VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN THERE AS WELL. ANY REMAINING CLOUDS FOR THE
TAF SITES LOOK TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES
BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
SITES THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH JUST A FEW STRATOCU
CLOUDS AROUND BY LATE IN THE DAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY OVERNIGHT. W-NW WINDS THIS EVENING
OF AROUND 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT STILL REMAIN AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25
KTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN
AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SNOW SHOWERS INTO EVENING WITH GENERALLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.

A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MODERATE
TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. ANY CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK
OF THE STORM WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ038>043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KBTV 310015
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
715 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL END TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM
NEW ENGLAND. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND BITTERLY COLD WIND
CHILLS WILL FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL.
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 620 PM EST FRIDAY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR
NORTHERN VERMONT EARLY TONIGHT FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. WIND
CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY.

SNOW HAS ENDED IN SOUTHERN VERMONT AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLOW CANCELLED FOR RUTLAND, WINDSOR, AND ADDISON COUNTIES. SNOW
WAS WINDING DOWN IN NORTHERN VERMONT HOWEVER VISIBILITIES BELOW
3SM AND SOME ACCUMULATIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IR
SATELLITE SHOWING CLEARING SKIES MOVING INTO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS FALLING AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN NORTHERN VERMONT AND FROUDE
NUMBERS INDICATING BLOCKED FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT, SO
UPSLOPE WILL WRING OUT WHATEVER MEAGER MOISTURE EXISTS.
NEVERTHELESS EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THROUGH
THE EVENING.

NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED 500 MB TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EXTENDING SOUTH TO JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE SHOWING VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER CLIPPER HAS
LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA, AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT WILL HELP WITH
TRYING AND ENDING SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SECONDARY SURFACE LOW
HAS DEVELOPED JUST OFF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...ARCTIC
FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME.
TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHERN NY AND WERE
DROPPING THROUGH THE TEENS ELSEWHERE. TEAMS DROPPING WELL BELOW
ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT LOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO ZERO
FROM CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. HOWEVER IF CLEARING MOVES FURTHER
EAST INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OR ON INTO VERMONT TEMPS COULD TANK
FURTHER EAST AS WELL. WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT DROPPING TO BETWEEN
15 AND 35 BELOW...WITH LOWEST VALUES IN ADIRONDACKS WHERE WIND
CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNINGS/ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.

COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING WITH RATHER TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 925 MB TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE
TEENS TO -20S AND WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
CONTINUE. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND
LOWER TEENS SOUTH WITH WIND CHILLS 15 TO 30 BELOW THROUGH THE
MORNING. SOME MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT...OTHERWISE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHRINKS SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER
WAVE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS BACK INTO THE REGION
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEGATIVE
MID TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT. RETURN TO NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ON SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH. CLOUDS RETURN SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT BETTER
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL LIE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE ACTIVE WEATHER AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN RIDGE
INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER
WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BY
FRIDAY MORNING ANOTHER LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE ONLY DAY OF
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH A CHANCE AT NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE COLD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...LINGERING MVFR TO INTERVALS OF IFR
VISIBILITY IN LIGHT SNOW TO BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO BTV AND MPV
GIVEN PERSISTENT BLOCKED FLOW. FOR THE BTV TAF HOWEVER, THE MOST
PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWS SHOULD BECOME MORE TIED TO THE WESTERN
SLOPES WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. STRONG CANADIAN RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT. COLD ADVECTION AND DRYING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A RATHER
RAPID CLEARING OF OVC VFR/MVFR CEILINGS TOWARD VFR ALL TERMINALS
BY MORNING. THOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10-12 KTS,
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST GUSTS
TO DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY INTO THE DAY SATURDAY (AS HIGH AS 25
KTS).

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF
REGION. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM 12Z
MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR VTZ001>012-
     016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VTZ001>008-
     010-016>018.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KBTV 310015
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
715 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL END TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM
NEW ENGLAND. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND BITTERLY COLD WIND
CHILLS WILL FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL.
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 620 PM EST FRIDAY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR
NORTHERN VERMONT EARLY TONIGHT FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. WIND
CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY.

SNOW HAS ENDED IN SOUTHERN VERMONT AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLOW CANCELLED FOR RUTLAND, WINDSOR, AND ADDISON COUNTIES. SNOW
WAS WINDING DOWN IN NORTHERN VERMONT HOWEVER VISIBILITIES BELOW
3SM AND SOME ACCUMULATIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IR
SATELLITE SHOWING CLEARING SKIES MOVING INTO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS FALLING AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN NORTHERN VERMONT AND FROUDE
NUMBERS INDICATING BLOCKED FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT, SO
UPSLOPE WILL WRING OUT WHATEVER MEAGER MOISTURE EXISTS.
NEVERTHELESS EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THROUGH
THE EVENING.

NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED 500 MB TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EXTENDING SOUTH TO JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE SHOWING VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER CLIPPER HAS
LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA, AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT WILL HELP WITH
TRYING AND ENDING SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SECONDARY SURFACE LOW
HAS DEVELOPED JUST OFF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...ARCTIC
FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME.
TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHERN NY AND WERE
DROPPING THROUGH THE TEENS ELSEWHERE. TEAMS DROPPING WELL BELOW
ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT LOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO ZERO
FROM CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. HOWEVER IF CLEARING MOVES FURTHER
EAST INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OR ON INTO VERMONT TEMPS COULD TANK
FURTHER EAST AS WELL. WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT DROPPING TO BETWEEN
15 AND 35 BELOW...WITH LOWEST VALUES IN ADIRONDACKS WHERE WIND
CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNINGS/ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.

COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING WITH RATHER TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 925 MB TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE
TEENS TO -20S AND WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
CONTINUE. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND
LOWER TEENS SOUTH WITH WIND CHILLS 15 TO 30 BELOW THROUGH THE
MORNING. SOME MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT...OTHERWISE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHRINKS SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER
WAVE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS BACK INTO THE REGION
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEGATIVE
MID TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT. RETURN TO NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ON SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH. CLOUDS RETURN SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT BETTER
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL LIE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE ACTIVE WEATHER AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN RIDGE
INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER
WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BY
FRIDAY MORNING ANOTHER LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE ONLY DAY OF
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH A CHANCE AT NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE COLD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...LINGERING MVFR TO INTERVALS OF IFR
VISIBILITY IN LIGHT SNOW TO BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO BTV AND MPV
GIVEN PERSISTENT BLOCKED FLOW. FOR THE BTV TAF HOWEVER, THE MOST
PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWS SHOULD BECOME MORE TIED TO THE WESTERN
SLOPES WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. STRONG CANADIAN RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT. COLD ADVECTION AND DRYING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A RATHER
RAPID CLEARING OF OVC VFR/MVFR CEILINGS TOWARD VFR ALL TERMINALS
BY MORNING. THOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10-12 KTS,
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST GUSTS
TO DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY INTO THE DAY SATURDAY (AS HIGH AS 25
KTS).

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF
REGION. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM 12Z
MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR VTZ001>012-
     016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VTZ001>008-
     010-016>018.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KBTV 310015
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
715 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL END TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM
NEW ENGLAND. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND BITTERLY COLD WIND
CHILLS WILL FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL.
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 620 PM EST FRIDAY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR
NORTHERN VERMONT EARLY TONIGHT FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. WIND
CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY.

SNOW HAS ENDED IN SOUTHERN VERMONT AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLOW CANCELLED FOR RUTLAND, WINDSOR, AND ADDISON COUNTIES. SNOW
WAS WINDING DOWN IN NORTHERN VERMONT HOWEVER VISIBILITIES BELOW
3SM AND SOME ACCUMULATIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IR
SATELLITE SHOWING CLEARING SKIES MOVING INTO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS FALLING AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN NORTHERN VERMONT AND FROUDE
NUMBERS INDICATING BLOCKED FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT, SO
UPSLOPE WILL WRING OUT WHATEVER MEAGER MOISTURE EXISTS.
NEVERTHELESS EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THROUGH
THE EVENING.

NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED 500 MB TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EXTENDING SOUTH TO JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE SHOWING VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER CLIPPER HAS
LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA, AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT WILL HELP WITH
TRYING AND ENDING SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SECONDARY SURFACE LOW
HAS DEVELOPED JUST OFF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...ARCTIC
FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME.
TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHERN NY AND WERE
DROPPING THROUGH THE TEENS ELSEWHERE. TEAMS DROPPING WELL BELOW
ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT LOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO ZERO
FROM CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. HOWEVER IF CLEARING MOVES FURTHER
EAST INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OR ON INTO VERMONT TEMPS COULD TANK
FURTHER EAST AS WELL. WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT DROPPING TO BETWEEN
15 AND 35 BELOW...WITH LOWEST VALUES IN ADIRONDACKS WHERE WIND
CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNINGS/ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.

COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING WITH RATHER TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 925 MB TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE
TEENS TO -20S AND WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
CONTINUE. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND
LOWER TEENS SOUTH WITH WIND CHILLS 15 TO 30 BELOW THROUGH THE
MORNING. SOME MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT...OTHERWISE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHRINKS SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER
WAVE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS BACK INTO THE REGION
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEGATIVE
MID TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT. RETURN TO NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ON SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH. CLOUDS RETURN SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT BETTER
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL LIE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE ACTIVE WEATHER AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN RIDGE
INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER
WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BY
FRIDAY MORNING ANOTHER LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE ONLY DAY OF
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH A CHANCE AT NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE COLD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...LINGERING MVFR TO INTERVALS OF IFR
VISIBILITY IN LIGHT SNOW TO BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO BTV AND MPV
GIVEN PERSISTENT BLOCKED FLOW. FOR THE BTV TAF HOWEVER, THE MOST
PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWS SHOULD BECOME MORE TIED TO THE WESTERN
SLOPES WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. STRONG CANADIAN RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT. COLD ADVECTION AND DRYING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A RATHER
RAPID CLEARING OF OVC VFR/MVFR CEILINGS TOWARD VFR ALL TERMINALS
BY MORNING. THOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10-12 KTS,
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST GUSTS
TO DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY INTO THE DAY SATURDAY (AS HIGH AS 25
KTS).

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF
REGION. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM 12Z
MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR VTZ001>012-
     016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VTZ001>008-
     010-016>018.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KBTV 310015
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
715 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL END TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM
NEW ENGLAND. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND BITTERLY COLD WIND
CHILLS WILL FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL.
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 620 PM EST FRIDAY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR
NORTHERN VERMONT EARLY TONIGHT FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. WIND
CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY.

SNOW HAS ENDED IN SOUTHERN VERMONT AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLOW CANCELLED FOR RUTLAND, WINDSOR, AND ADDISON COUNTIES. SNOW
WAS WINDING DOWN IN NORTHERN VERMONT HOWEVER VISIBILITIES BELOW
3SM AND SOME ACCUMULATIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IR
SATELLITE SHOWING CLEARING SKIES MOVING INTO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS FALLING AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN NORTHERN VERMONT AND FROUDE
NUMBERS INDICATING BLOCKED FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT, SO
UPSLOPE WILL WRING OUT WHATEVER MEAGER MOISTURE EXISTS.
NEVERTHELESS EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THROUGH
THE EVENING.

NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED 500 MB TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EXTENDING SOUTH TO JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE SHOWING VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER CLIPPER HAS
LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA, AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT WILL HELP WITH
TRYING AND ENDING SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SECONDARY SURFACE LOW
HAS DEVELOPED JUST OFF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...ARCTIC
FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME.
TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHERN NY AND WERE
DROPPING THROUGH THE TEENS ELSEWHERE. TEAMS DROPPING WELL BELOW
ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT LOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO ZERO
FROM CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. HOWEVER IF CLEARING MOVES FURTHER
EAST INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OR ON INTO VERMONT TEMPS COULD TANK
FURTHER EAST AS WELL. WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT DROPPING TO BETWEEN
15 AND 35 BELOW...WITH LOWEST VALUES IN ADIRONDACKS WHERE WIND
CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNINGS/ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.

COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING WITH RATHER TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 925 MB TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE
TEENS TO -20S AND WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
CONTINUE. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND
LOWER TEENS SOUTH WITH WIND CHILLS 15 TO 30 BELOW THROUGH THE
MORNING. SOME MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT...OTHERWISE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHRINKS SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER
WAVE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS BACK INTO THE REGION
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEGATIVE
MID TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT. RETURN TO NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ON SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH. CLOUDS RETURN SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT BETTER
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL LIE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE ACTIVE WEATHER AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN RIDGE
INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER
WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BY
FRIDAY MORNING ANOTHER LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE ONLY DAY OF
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH A CHANCE AT NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE COLD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...LINGERING MVFR TO INTERVALS OF IFR
VISIBILITY IN LIGHT SNOW TO BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO BTV AND MPV
GIVEN PERSISTENT BLOCKED FLOW. FOR THE BTV TAF HOWEVER, THE MOST
PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOWS SHOULD BECOME MORE TIED TO THE WESTERN
SLOPES WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. STRONG CANADIAN RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT. COLD ADVECTION AND DRYING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A RATHER
RAPID CLEARING OF OVC VFR/MVFR CEILINGS TOWARD VFR ALL TERMINALS
BY MORNING. THOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10-12 KTS,
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST GUSTS
TO DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY INTO THE DAY SATURDAY (AS HIGH AS 25
KTS).

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF
REGION. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM 12Z
MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR VTZ001>012-
     016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VTZ001>008-
     010-016>018.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO



000
FXUS61 KALY 302352
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
652 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD
WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BRIEFLY IN
CONTROL TO START THE WEEKEND...THEN A CLIPPER LOW SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT TO
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE STORM TRACK IS STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
...A WIND CHILL WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TONIGHT TO 11 AM
SATURDAY FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...

...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE REST OF THE FCST AREA
EXCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS 6 PM TONIGHT UNTIL
11 AM SATURDAY...

AS OF 652 PM EST...A BITTERLY COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...A STRONG NW FLOW
IS IN PLACE BETWEEN THE SFC AND 600 HPA. THIS FLOW HAS BEEN
UPSLOPING THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE TACONICS/BERKSHIRES...AND WITH A
BLOCKED FLOW IN PLACE...THERE HAS BEEN STEADY SNOWFALL OCCURRING IN
PARTS OF EASTERN RENNSELAER AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY.
ALTHOUGH THIS LOOKS TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THESE HIGH
TERRAIN LOCATIONS.

ELSEWHERE...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS...SCHOHARIE
COUNTY AND INTO THE HELDERBERGS. THESE LOOK TO DIMINISH SOON WITH
LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THESE AREAS. NO SNOW
IS EXPECTED ANYWHERE ELSE...AND CLOUDS LOOK TO QUICKLY BE
DIMINISHING AS WE GO THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN BTWN THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE OH VALLEY...AND THE CYCLONE DEEPENING S/SE OF
NOVA SCOTIA. THE H850 WINDS INCREASE TO 40-55+KTS...H925 WINDS
30-50 KTS IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER
PROFILES SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME 30-35+ KT GUSTS MIXING DOWN
ACROSS LOCATIONS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION S/SE. EXPECT BLUSTERY NW
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE. H850
TEMPS PLUMMET TO -15C TO -20C FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...AND -12C TO -15C SOUTH AND EAST.

OUR MIN TEMPS FAVOR THE COLDER METMOS VALUES WITH LOWS 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO OVER THE SRN DACKS....ZERO TO 10 BELOW OVER THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN CATSKILLS...N-CNTRL TACONICS...LAKE
GEORGE NRN SARATOGA REGION...SRN VT WEST OF THE SRN GREENS...AND
BERKS.  EXPECT ZERO TO 5 ABOVE READINGS OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN TACONICS...AND NW CT.

THESE COLD TEMPS COMBINED WITH THE WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OR
APPARENT TEMPS OF 30 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW ZERO OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SRN DACKS...AND 15 TO 29 DEGREES BELOW ZERO OVER THE REST OF THE
FCST AREA.

TOMORROW...NASTY WIND CHILLS CONTINUE MOST OF THE MORNING...AND THE
HEADLINES RUN TO 11 AM.  THE CYCLONE BECOMES OCCLUDED NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND.  THE SFC HIGH ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY THE AFTERNOON.  MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL BE
15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  OVERALL...DOWNRIGHT FRIGID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES. TEENS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA.  THE WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN LATE IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER MOISTURE SPARSE CLIPPER WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
W/NW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER ANY
CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE STORM WOULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ALOFT WILL FLATTEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FILLS AND HEADS
NORTHWARD AND ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND DIGS
A TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION
WILL WEAKENING AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE. TEMPERATURES
ARE OUR REGION WILL MODERATE SUNDAY AND NOT BE BITTERLY COLD LIKE
SATURDAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES WITH MUCH WEAKER
WINDS.

AT THIS TIME...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD
AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST MONDAY MORNING THEN HEAD NORTHEASTWARD
PASSING SOUTH OF CAPE COD. OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
CONTINUE WELL INTO MONDAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK ALL
SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHER THAN CLIMO
SNOW RATIOS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES SHOW SPREAD IN THEIR
FORECAST IN REGARDS TO STORM TRACK AND QPF AMOUNTS. THERE IS MODEL
CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME THE SYSTEM ALOFT REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND
DOES NOT CLOSE OFF AND DOES NOT BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED UNTIL ITS
WELL OFFSHORE. ANY CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE LOW WILL
HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. THE GRADIENT OF
SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE PROBABILISTIC
SNOWFALL GUIDANCE FOR ALBANY RANGES FROM AS LITTLE AS 1 TO 2
INCHES UP TO AROUND 10 INCHES.

BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK AND EXPECTED QPF HAVE OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK SEGMENTED AS FOLLOWS...

SIGNIFICANT (WARNING LEVEL) SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES...EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND THE SOUTHERN TACONICS.

MODERATE (ADVISORY LEVEL) SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...GREATER CAPITAL
REGION...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...AND THE NORTHERN TACONICS AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

LIGHT TO POSSIBLE MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALONG
WITH A FRESH SNOWCOVER...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DROP TO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH 10
DEGREES BELOW ZERO AND COLDER FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90. MAY NEED ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH...DRY AND COLD WEATHER
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS. LOW TEMPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS...WITH A FEW SPOTS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THESE TEMPS WON/T BE AS COLD AS THEY COULD BE...DUE TO INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WIND.

A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
CLIPPER STORM WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA...SO ANY FORCING WILL ONLY BE WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD/ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY...WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.  TEMPS WILL BE WARMER AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S. MINS LOOK TO BE IN THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND HOW QUICKLY IT CLEARS OUT BEHIND IT.

ANOTHER VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR THE
LATE WEEK PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR MAY NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A COASTAL WAVE LOOK TO BE MOVING UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE IN THE WEEK AS WELL...BUT IT SHOULD BE
WELL OFFSHORE AND HAVE NO IMPACT ON THE REGION...AS WE WILL BE IN
THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. TEMPS LOOK TO
BE IN THE 20S FOR THURSDAY...BUT WILL DROP TO -10 TO 10 ABOVE FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND ONLY REACH THE TEENS FOR FRIDAY. IT LOOKS
FAIRLY COLD ONCE AGAIN FOR FRI NIGHT AS WELL WITH MANY LOCATIONS AT
OR BELOW ZERO. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD TEMPS...IT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY THURS/FRI...AS THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE...KEEPING SKIES MAINLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO VFR AT THE VALLEY
TERMINALS...BUT REMAIN IFR AT KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE SNOWFALL. THIS
SNOW LOOKS TO END AT KPSF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALLOWING VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN THERE AS WELL. ANY REMAINING CLOUDS FOR THE
TAF SITES LOOK TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES
BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
SITES THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH JUST A FEW STRATOCU
CLOUDS AROUND BY LATE IN THE DAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY OVERNIGHT. W-NW WINDS THIS EVENING
OF AROUND 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT STILL REMAIN AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25
KTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN
AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SNOW SHOWERS INTO EVENING WITH GENERALLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.

A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MODERATE
TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. ANY CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK
OF THE STORM WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ038>043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KBTV 302330
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
630 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL END TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM
NEW ENGLAND. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND BITTERLY COLD WIND
CHILLS WILL FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL.
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 620 PM EST FRIDAY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR
NORTHERN VERMONT EARLY TONIGHT FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. WIND
CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY.

SNOW HAS ENDED IN SOUTHERN VERMONT AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLOW CANCELLED FOR RUTLAND, WINDSOR, AND ADDISON COUNTIES. SNOW
WAS WINDING DOWN IN NORTHERN VERMONT HOWEVER VISIBILITIES BELOW
3SM AND SOME ACCUMULATIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IR
SATELLITE SHOWING CLEARING SKIES MOVING INTO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS FALLING AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN NORTHERN VERMONT AND FROUDE
NUMBERS INDICATING BLOCKED FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT, SO
UPSLOPE WILL WRING OUT WHATEVER MEAGER MOISTURE EXISTS.
NEVERTHELESS EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THROUGH
THE EVENING.

NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED 500 MB TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EXTENDING SOUTH TO JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE SHOWING VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER CLIPPER HAS
LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA, AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT WILL HELP WITH
TRYING AND ENDING SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SECONDARY SURFACE LOW
HAS DEVELOPED JUST OFF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...ARCTIC
FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME.
TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHERN NY AND WERE
DROPPING THROUGH THE TEENS ELSEWHERE. TEAMS DROPPING WELL BELOW
ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT LOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO ZERO
FROM CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. HOWEVER IF CLEARING MOVES FURTHER
EAST INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OR ON INTO VERMONT TEMPS COULD TANK
FURTHER EAST AS WELL. WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT DROPPING TO BETWEEN
15 AND 35 BELOW...WITH LOWEST VALUES IN ADIRONDACKS WHERE WIND
CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNINGS/ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.

COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING WITH RATHER TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 925 MB TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE
TEENS TO -20S AND WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
CONTINUE. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND
LOWER TEENS SOUTH WITH WIND CHILLS 15 TO 30 BELOW THROUGH THE
MORNING. SOME MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT...OTHERWISE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHRINKS SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER
WAVE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS BACK INTO THE REGION
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEGATIVE
MID TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT. RETURN TO NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ON SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH. CLOUDS RETURN SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT BETTER
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL LIE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE ACTIVE WEATHER AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN RIDGE
INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER
WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BY
FRIDAY MORNING ANOTHER LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE ONLY DAY OF
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH A CHANCE AT NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE COLD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS VERMONT AND
BRINGS PERIODIC MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO BTV...MPV AND RUT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT AFTER ABOUT 12Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF
REGION. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM 12Z
MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR VTZ001>012-
     016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VTZ001>008-
     010-016>018.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 302330
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
630 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL END TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM
NEW ENGLAND. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND BITTERLY COLD WIND
CHILLS WILL FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL.
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 620 PM EST FRIDAY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR
NORTHERN VERMONT EARLY TONIGHT FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. WIND
CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY.

SNOW HAS ENDED IN SOUTHERN VERMONT AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLOW CANCELLED FOR RUTLAND, WINDSOR, AND ADDISON COUNTIES. SNOW
WAS WINDING DOWN IN NORTHERN VERMONT HOWEVER VISIBILITIES BELOW
3SM AND SOME ACCUMULATIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IR
SATELLITE SHOWING CLEARING SKIES MOVING INTO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS FALLING AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN NORTHERN VERMONT AND FROUDE
NUMBERS INDICATING BLOCKED FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT, SO
UPSLOPE WILL WRING OUT WHATEVER MEAGER MOISTURE EXISTS.
NEVERTHELESS EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THROUGH
THE EVENING.

NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED 500 MB TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EXTENDING SOUTH TO JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE SHOWING VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER CLIPPER HAS
LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA, AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT WILL HELP WITH
TRYING AND ENDING SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SECONDARY SURFACE LOW
HAS DEVELOPED JUST OFF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...ARCTIC
FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME.
TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHERN NY AND WERE
DROPPING THROUGH THE TEENS ELSEWHERE. TEAMS DROPPING WELL BELOW
ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT LOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO ZERO
FROM CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. HOWEVER IF CLEARING MOVES FURTHER
EAST INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OR ON INTO VERMONT TEMPS COULD TANK
FURTHER EAST AS WELL. WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT DROPPING TO BETWEEN
15 AND 35 BELOW...WITH LOWEST VALUES IN ADIRONDACKS WHERE WIND
CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNINGS/ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.

COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING WITH RATHER TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 925 MB TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE
TEENS TO -20S AND WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
CONTINUE. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND
LOWER TEENS SOUTH WITH WIND CHILLS 15 TO 30 BELOW THROUGH THE
MORNING. SOME MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT...OTHERWISE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHRINKS SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER
WAVE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS BACK INTO THE REGION
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEGATIVE
MID TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT. RETURN TO NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ON SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH. CLOUDS RETURN SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT BETTER
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL LIE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE ACTIVE WEATHER AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN RIDGE
INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER
WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BY
FRIDAY MORNING ANOTHER LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE ONLY DAY OF
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH A CHANCE AT NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE COLD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS VERMONT AND
BRINGS PERIODIC MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO BTV...MPV AND RUT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT AFTER ABOUT 12Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF
REGION. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM 12Z
MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR VTZ001>012-
     016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VTZ001>008-
     010-016>018.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KALY 302202
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
502 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD
WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BRIEFLY IN
CONTROL TO START THE WEEKEND...THEN A CLIPPER LOW SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT TO
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE STORM TRACK IS STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
...A WIND CHILL WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TONIGHT TO 11 AM
SATURDAY FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...

...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE REST OF THE FCST AREA
EXCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS 6 PM TONIGHT UNTIL 11
AM SATURDAY...

A BITTERLY COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO IN THE NW FLOW ACROSS THE WRN
DACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS. SOME UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE SRN GREENS...N-CNTRL TACONICS
AND BERKSHIRES PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE
LIGHT ON THE ORDER OF A COATING TO AN INCH IN A FEW SPOTS.

THE LEVEL SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN BTWN THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE OH VALLEY...AND THE CYCLONE DEEPENING S/SE OF
NOVA SCOTIA.   THE H850 WINDS INCREASE TO 40-55+KTS...H925 WINDS
30-50 KTS IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME.  BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER
PROFILES SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME 30-35+ KT GUSTS MIXING DOWN
ACROSS LOCATIONS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION S/SE.  EXPECT BLUSTERY NW
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE.  H850
TEMPS PLUMMET TO -15C TO -20C FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...AND -12C TO -15C SOUTH AND EAST.

OUR MIN TEMPS FAVOR THE COLDER METMOS VALUES WITH LOWS 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO OVER THE SRN DACKS....ZERO TO 10 BELOW OVER THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN CATSKILLS...N-CNTRL TACONICS...LAKE
GEORGE NRN SARATOGA REGION...SRN VT WEST OF THE SRN GREENS...AND
BERKS.  EXPECT ZERO TO 5 ABOVE READINGS OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN TACONICS...AND NW CT.

THESE COLD TEMPS COMBINED WITH THE WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OR
APPARENT TEMPS OF 30 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW ZERO OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SRN DACKS...AND 15 TO 29 DEGREES BELOW ZERO OVER THE REST OF THE
FCST AREA.

TOMORROW...NASTY WIND CHILLS CONTINUE MOST OF THE MORNING...AND THE
HEADLINES RUN TO 11 AM.  THE CYCLONE BECOMES OCCLUDED NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND.  THE SFC HIGH ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY THE AFTERNOON.  MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL BE
15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  OVERALL...DOWNRIGHT FRIGID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES. TEENS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA.  THE WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN LATE IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER MOISTURE SPARSE CLIPPER WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
W/NW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER ANY
CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE STORM WOULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ALOFT WILL FLATTEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FILLS AND HEADS
NORTHWARD AND ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND DIGS
A TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION
WILL WEAKENING AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE. TEMPERATURES
ARE OUR REGION WILL MODERATE SUNDAY AND NOT BE BITTERLY COLD LIKE
SATURDAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES WITH MUCH WEAKER
WINDS.

AT THIS TIME...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD
AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST MONDAY MORNING THEN HEAD NORTHEASTWARD
PASSING SOUTH OF CAPE COD. OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
CONTINUE WELL INTO MONDAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK ALL
SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHER THAN CLIMO
SNOW RATIOS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES SHOW SPREAD IN THEIR
FORECAST IN REGARDS TO STORM TRACK AND QPF AMOUNTS. THERE IS MODEL
CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME THE SYSTEM ALOFT REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND
DOES NOT CLOSE OFF AND DOES NOT BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED UNTIL ITS
WELL OFFSHORE. ANY CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE LOW WILL
HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. THE GRADIENT OF
SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE PROBABILISTIC
SNOWFALL GUIDANCE FOR ALBANY RANGES FROM AS LITTLE AS 1 TO 2
INCHES UP TO AROUND 10 INCHES.

BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK AND EXPECTED QPF HAVE OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK SEGMENTED AS FOLLOWS...

SIGNIFICANT (WARNING LEVEL) SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES...EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND THE SOUTHERN TACONICS.

MODERATE (ADVISORY LEVEL) SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...GREATER CAPITAL
REGION...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...AND THE NORTHERN TACONICS AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

LIGHT TO POSSIBLE MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALONG
WITH A FRESH SNOWCOVER...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DROP TO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH 10
DEGREES BELOW ZERO AND COLDER FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90. MAY NEED ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH...DRY AND COLD WEATHER
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS. LOW TEMPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS...WITH A FEW SPOTS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THESE TEMPS WON/T BE AS COLD AS THEY COULD BE...DUE TO INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WIND.

A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
CLIPPER STORM WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA...SO ANY FORCING WILL ONLY BE WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD/ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY...WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.  TEMPS WILL BE WARMER AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S. MINS LOOK TO BE IN THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND HOW QUICKLY IT CLEARS OUT BEHIND IT.

ANOTHER VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR THE
LATE WEEK PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR MAY NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A COASTAL WAVE LOOK TO BE MOVING UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE IN THE WEEK AS WELL...BUT IT SHOULD BE
WELL OFFSHORE AND HAVE NO IMPACT ON THE REGION...AS WE WILL BE IN
THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. TEMPS LOOK TO
BE IN THE 20S FOR THURSDAY...BUT WILL DROP TO -10 TO 10 ABOVE FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND ONLY REACH THE TEENS FOR FRIDAY. IT LOOKS
FAIRLY COLD ONCE AGAIN FOR FRI NIGHT AS WELL WITH MANY LOCATIONS AT
OR BELOW ZERO. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD TEMPS...IT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY THURS/FRI...AS THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE...KEEPING SKIES MAINLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS ACCOMPANYING
BURSTS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
RAPIDLY IMPROVING TO VFR AS DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...STILL SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL RESULT
IN REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH 20Z AT
KGFL...KALB AND KPSF. ANY LINGERING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY
20Z AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT KPOU EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN
18Z-20Z. AFTER 21Z...EXPECT VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL
CLEARING AT ALL TAF SITES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS...AT TIMES UP TO 30
KNOTS AT KALB AND KPSF.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD SATURDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
8-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SNOW SHOWERS INTO EVENING WITH GENERALLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.

A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MODERATE
TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. ANY CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK
OF THE STORM WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ038>043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 302202
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
502 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD
WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BRIEFLY IN
CONTROL TO START THE WEEKEND...THEN A CLIPPER LOW SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT TO
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE STORM TRACK IS STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
...A WIND CHILL WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TONIGHT TO 11 AM
SATURDAY FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...

...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE REST OF THE FCST AREA
EXCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS 6 PM TONIGHT UNTIL 11
AM SATURDAY...

A BITTERLY COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO IN THE NW FLOW ACROSS THE WRN
DACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS. SOME UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE SRN GREENS...N-CNTRL TACONICS
AND BERKSHIRES PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE
LIGHT ON THE ORDER OF A COATING TO AN INCH IN A FEW SPOTS.

THE LEVEL SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN BTWN THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE OH VALLEY...AND THE CYCLONE DEEPENING S/SE OF
NOVA SCOTIA.   THE H850 WINDS INCREASE TO 40-55+KTS...H925 WINDS
30-50 KTS IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME.  BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER
PROFILES SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME 30-35+ KT GUSTS MIXING DOWN
ACROSS LOCATIONS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION S/SE.  EXPECT BLUSTERY NW
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE.  H850
TEMPS PLUMMET TO -15C TO -20C FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...AND -12C TO -15C SOUTH AND EAST.

OUR MIN TEMPS FAVOR THE COLDER METMOS VALUES WITH LOWS 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO OVER THE SRN DACKS....ZERO TO 10 BELOW OVER THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN CATSKILLS...N-CNTRL TACONICS...LAKE
GEORGE NRN SARATOGA REGION...SRN VT WEST OF THE SRN GREENS...AND
BERKS.  EXPECT ZERO TO 5 ABOVE READINGS OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN TACONICS...AND NW CT.

THESE COLD TEMPS COMBINED WITH THE WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OR
APPARENT TEMPS OF 30 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW ZERO OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SRN DACKS...AND 15 TO 29 DEGREES BELOW ZERO OVER THE REST OF THE
FCST AREA.

TOMORROW...NASTY WIND CHILLS CONTINUE MOST OF THE MORNING...AND THE
HEADLINES RUN TO 11 AM.  THE CYCLONE BECOMES OCCLUDED NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND.  THE SFC HIGH ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY THE AFTERNOON.  MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL BE
15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  OVERALL...DOWNRIGHT FRIGID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES. TEENS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA.  THE WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN LATE IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER MOISTURE SPARSE CLIPPER WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
W/NW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER ANY
CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE STORM WOULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ALOFT WILL FLATTEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FILLS AND HEADS
NORTHWARD AND ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND DIGS
A TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION
WILL WEAKENING AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE. TEMPERATURES
ARE OUR REGION WILL MODERATE SUNDAY AND NOT BE BITTERLY COLD LIKE
SATURDAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES WITH MUCH WEAKER
WINDS.

AT THIS TIME...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD
AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST MONDAY MORNING THEN HEAD NORTHEASTWARD
PASSING SOUTH OF CAPE COD. OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
CONTINUE WELL INTO MONDAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK ALL
SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHER THAN CLIMO
SNOW RATIOS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES SHOW SPREAD IN THEIR
FORECAST IN REGARDS TO STORM TRACK AND QPF AMOUNTS. THERE IS MODEL
CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME THE SYSTEM ALOFT REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND
DOES NOT CLOSE OFF AND DOES NOT BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED UNTIL ITS
WELL OFFSHORE. ANY CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE LOW WILL
HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. THE GRADIENT OF
SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE PROBABILISTIC
SNOWFALL GUIDANCE FOR ALBANY RANGES FROM AS LITTLE AS 1 TO 2
INCHES UP TO AROUND 10 INCHES.

BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK AND EXPECTED QPF HAVE OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK SEGMENTED AS FOLLOWS...

SIGNIFICANT (WARNING LEVEL) SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES...EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AND THE SOUTHERN TACONICS.

MODERATE (ADVISORY LEVEL) SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...GREATER CAPITAL
REGION...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...AND THE NORTHERN TACONICS AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

LIGHT TO POSSIBLE MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALONG
WITH A FRESH SNOWCOVER...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DROP TO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH 10
DEGREES BELOW ZERO AND COLDER FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90. MAY NEED ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH...DRY AND COLD WEATHER
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS. LOW TEMPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS...WITH A FEW SPOTS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THESE TEMPS WON/T BE AS COLD AS THEY COULD BE...DUE TO INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WIND.

A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
CLIPPER STORM WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA...SO ANY FORCING WILL ONLY BE WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD/ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY...WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.  TEMPS WILL BE WARMER AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S. MINS LOOK TO BE IN THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND HOW QUICKLY IT CLEARS OUT BEHIND IT.

ANOTHER VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR THE
LATE WEEK PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR MAY NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A COASTAL WAVE LOOK TO BE MOVING UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE IN THE WEEK AS WELL...BUT IT SHOULD BE
WELL OFFSHORE AND HAVE NO IMPACT ON THE REGION...AS WE WILL BE IN
THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. TEMPS LOOK TO
BE IN THE 20S FOR THURSDAY...BUT WILL DROP TO -10 TO 10 ABOVE FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND ONLY REACH THE TEENS FOR FRIDAY. IT LOOKS
FAIRLY COLD ONCE AGAIN FOR FRI NIGHT AS WELL WITH MANY LOCATIONS AT
OR BELOW ZERO. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD TEMPS...IT SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY THURS/FRI...AS THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE...KEEPING SKIES MAINLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS ACCOMPANYING
BURSTS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
RAPIDLY IMPROVING TO VFR AS DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...STILL SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL RESULT
IN REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH 20Z AT
KGFL...KALB AND KPSF. ANY LINGERING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY
20Z AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT KPOU EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN
18Z-20Z. AFTER 21Z...EXPECT VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL
CLEARING AT ALL TAF SITES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS...AT TIMES UP TO 30
KNOTS AT KALB AND KPSF.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD SATURDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
8-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SNOW SHOWERS INTO EVENING WITH GENERALLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.

A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MODERATE
TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. ANY CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK
OF THE STORM WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ038>043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KBTV 302046
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
346 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL END TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM
NEW ENGLAND. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND BITTERLY COLD WIND
CHILLS WILL FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL.
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 335 PM EST FRIDAY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR
VERMONT EARLY TONIGHT FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. WIND CHILL
WARNING AND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY.

MAINLY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT AT
THIS TIME...WHILE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO REGION.
WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM HAS JUST ABOUT WASHED OUT OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING JUST OFF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NOVA
SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...ARCTIC FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS
ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. TEMPS FALLING THROUGH TEENS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHWEST VERMONT...AND THIS TREND
OF FALLING TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING.
ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR AND DEPARTURE OF SNOW DELAYED A BIT OVER
EASTERN ZONES AS UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT OVER NEW
ENGLAND...DELAYING EXIT OF THE COASTAL LOW. THE HEAVIEST SNOW AT
THIS TIME EXISTS IN THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...ON THE VERMONT
SIDE...AS FLOW IS VERY BLOCKED AS EVIDENCED BY LOW FROUDE
NUMBERS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN
DIMINISH AS MOISTURE DECREASES OVERNIGHT. ALSO EXPECT PERIODS OF
SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS REST OF VERMONT...ESPECIALLY
UPSLOPE FAVORED NORTHERN AREAS...THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES. TOTAL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE 4 TO 6 INCHES...BUT THERE WILL BE
HIGHER OUTLIERS ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN VERMONT. ACCUMULATING SNOWS
PRETTY MUCH OVER WITH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT THREAT OF
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AFTER WHICH TIME SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR.
TEAMS DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT LOWS
WILL BE CLOSER TO ZERO FROM CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. WIND CHILLS
OVERNIGHT DROPPING TO BETWEEN 15 AND 35 BELOW...WITH LOWEST VALUES
IN ADIRONDACKS WHERE WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT. WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNINGS/ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.

COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING WITH RATHER TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 925 MB TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE
TEENS TO -20S AND WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
CONTINUE. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND
LOWER TEENS SOUTH WITH WIND CHILLS 15 TO 30 BELOW THROUGH THE
MORNING. SOME MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT...OTHERWISE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHRINKS SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER
WAVE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS BACK INTO THE REGION
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEGATIVE
MID TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT. RETURN TO NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ON SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH. CLOUDS RETURN SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT BETTER
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL LIE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE ACTIVE WEATHER AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN RIDGE
INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER
WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BY
FRIDAY MORNING ANOTHER LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE ONLY DAY OF
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH A CHANCE AT NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE COLD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS VERMONT AND
BRINGS PERIODIC MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO BTV...MPV AND RUT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT AFTER ABOUT 12Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF
REGION. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM 12Z
MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VTZ001>012-
     016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 302046
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
346 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL END TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM
NEW ENGLAND. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND BITTERLY COLD WIND
CHILLS WILL FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL.
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 335 PM EST FRIDAY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR
VERMONT EARLY TONIGHT FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. WIND CHILL
WARNING AND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY.

MAINLY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT AT
THIS TIME...WHILE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO REGION.
WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM HAS JUST ABOUT WASHED OUT OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING JUST OFF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NOVA
SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...ARCTIC FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS
ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. TEMPS FALLING THROUGH TEENS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHWEST VERMONT...AND THIS TREND
OF FALLING TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING.
ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR AND DEPARTURE OF SNOW DELAYED A BIT OVER
EASTERN ZONES AS UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT OVER NEW
ENGLAND...DELAYING EXIT OF THE COASTAL LOW. THE HEAVIEST SNOW AT
THIS TIME EXISTS IN THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...ON THE VERMONT
SIDE...AS FLOW IS VERY BLOCKED AS EVIDENCED BY LOW FROUDE
NUMBERS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN
DIMINISH AS MOISTURE DECREASES OVERNIGHT. ALSO EXPECT PERIODS OF
SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS REST OF VERMONT...ESPECIALLY
UPSLOPE FAVORED NORTHERN AREAS...THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES. TOTAL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE 4 TO 6 INCHES...BUT THERE WILL BE
HIGHER OUTLIERS ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN VERMONT. ACCUMULATING SNOWS
PRETTY MUCH OVER WITH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT THREAT OF
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AFTER WHICH TIME SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR.
TEAMS DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT LOWS
WILL BE CLOSER TO ZERO FROM CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. WIND CHILLS
OVERNIGHT DROPPING TO BETWEEN 15 AND 35 BELOW...WITH LOWEST VALUES
IN ADIRONDACKS WHERE WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT. WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EST FRIDAY...WIND CHILL WARNINGS/ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.

COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING WITH RATHER TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 925 MB TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE
TEENS TO -20S AND WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
CONTINUE. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND
LOWER TEENS SOUTH WITH WIND CHILLS 15 TO 30 BELOW THROUGH THE
MORNING. SOME MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT...OTHERWISE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHRINKS SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER
WAVE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS BACK INTO THE REGION
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEGATIVE
MID TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT. RETURN TO NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ON SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH. CLOUDS RETURN SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT BETTER
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL LIE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE ACTIVE WEATHER AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN RIDGE
INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER
WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BY
FRIDAY MORNING ANOTHER LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE ONLY DAY OF
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH A CHANCE AT NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE COLD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS VERMONT AND
BRINGS PERIODIC MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO BTV...MPV AND RUT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT AFTER ABOUT 12Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF
REGION. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM 12Z
MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VTZ001>012-
     016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 302001
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
301 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SNOW
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1210 PM EST FRIDAY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

MAINLY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY AT THIS TIME...AND COLDER AIR NOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY. CENTER OF WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING JUST
NORTH OF NORTHEAST VERMONT. SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING JUST OFF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME THE PRIMARY AND
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY. MEANWHILE...ARCTIC FRONT MAKING
ITS WAY ACROSS ACROSS WESTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. TEMPS ALREADY
FALLING THROUGH TEENS IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THIS TREND OF FALLING TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSLATE EASTWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF SNOW GREATEST
ACROSS VERMONT...SO FORECAST OF PERIODS OF SNOW FROM CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EASTWARD FOR REST OF TODAY STILL LOOKS GOOD...WHILE SNOW
TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. ONLY CHANGES
TO GOING FORECAST WITH LATEST UPDATE WERE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...AND BLEND WITH GOING FORECAST. OVERALL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 3 TO 7 INCHES
ACROSS BULK OF FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION... FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH SNOW AFFECTING
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND WINDS IN PORTIONS OF ST LAWRENCE COUNTY
ALREADY SHIFTING NORTHWEST. VAD WIND PROFILE AT KCXX SHOWING
VEERING WIND PROFILE FURTHER SUPPORTING THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
SNOWS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW.

CLIPPER CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH TODAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE LOW...CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC...MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
LOW STILL LOOKS TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST, AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO NEGATIVELY TILT.
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS NORTHER NY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH EXCEPTION OF NORTHWEST UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP IN RESIDUAL MOISTURE. SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER VT
INTO THIS EVENING. .

WITH CLOUDY SKIES, SNOW SHOWERS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL
ARRIVE ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW, EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO OCCUR
EARLY IN THE DAY IN THE 20S. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL REACH NORTHERN
NY WITH SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 444 AM EST FRIDAY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ACROSS ALL BUT SOUTHERN VERMONT. WIND CHILL
WARNING AND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY.

NEGATIVE TILTING OF TROUGH WILL SLOW THE LOWS PROGRESSION OUT TO
SEA, KEEPING MOISTURE AND A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HENCE, EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE OVER MOST OF VERMONT AND UPSLOPE SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECT THE LOW TO
MOVE FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY TO ALLOW
SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH...THOUGH UPSLOPE MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION PERSISTS THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND
THE LOW. 925MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS TO -20S AND
WINDS AROUND 10-20 MPG WITH SOME GUSTS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR AND ONSET OF CLEARING
SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. NORTHERN NY WILL SEE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
AS IT WILL SEE THE MOST CLEARING. WIND CHILLS WILL BECOME
DANGEROUSLY COLD, FALLING COLDER THAN -20 DEGREES AROUND MIDNIGHT.
MOST OF NORTHERN NY IS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE WIND CHILLS AROUND
-30 OR COLDER. CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND REST OF VT NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS COLD DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

ONCE SURVIVING THE DANGEROUS COLD TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING, RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
SUBSIDE AND HELP THE COASTAL LOW TO MOVE FURTHER TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TO WARM
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MAX TEMPS REMAINING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST AREAS. SOUTHERN VALLEYS MAY SEE DOUBLE DIGITS.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHRINKS SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT, UPPER WAVE
WILL TRY TO BRING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY TO NORTHERN
NY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE RANGING FROM NEGATIVE MID-TEENS TO
NEAR ZERO. RETURN TO NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM 5
TO 15 DEGREES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE ACTIVE WEATHER AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN RIDGE
INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER
WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BY
FRIDAY MORNING ANOTHER LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE ONLY DAY OF
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH A CHANCE AT NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE COLD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS VERMONT AND
BRINGS PERIODIC MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO BTV...MPV AND RUT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT AFTER ABOUT 12Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF
REGION. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM 12Z
MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VTZ001>012-
     016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 302001
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
301 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SNOW
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1210 PM EST FRIDAY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

MAINLY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY AT THIS TIME...AND COLDER AIR NOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY. CENTER OF WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING JUST
NORTH OF NORTHEAST VERMONT. SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING JUST OFF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME THE PRIMARY AND
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY. MEANWHILE...ARCTIC FRONT MAKING
ITS WAY ACROSS ACROSS WESTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. TEMPS ALREADY
FALLING THROUGH TEENS IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THIS TREND OF FALLING TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSLATE EASTWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF SNOW GREATEST
ACROSS VERMONT...SO FORECAST OF PERIODS OF SNOW FROM CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY EASTWARD FOR REST OF TODAY STILL LOOKS GOOD...WHILE SNOW
TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. ONLY CHANGES
TO GOING FORECAST WITH LATEST UPDATE WERE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...AND BLEND WITH GOING FORECAST. OVERALL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 3 TO 7 INCHES
ACROSS BULK OF FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION... FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH SNOW AFFECTING
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND WINDS IN PORTIONS OF ST LAWRENCE COUNTY
ALREADY SHIFTING NORTHWEST. VAD WIND PROFILE AT KCXX SHOWING
VEERING WIND PROFILE FURTHER SUPPORTING THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
SNOWS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW.

CLIPPER CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH TODAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE LOW...CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC...MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
LOW STILL LOOKS TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST, AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO NEGATIVELY TILT.
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS NORTHER NY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH EXCEPTION OF NORTHWEST UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP IN RESIDUAL MOISTURE. SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER VT
INTO THIS EVENING. .

WITH CLOUDY SKIES, SNOW SHOWERS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL
ARRIVE ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW, EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO OCCUR
EARLY IN THE DAY IN THE 20S. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL REACH NORTHERN
NY WITH SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 444 AM EST FRIDAY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ACROSS ALL BUT SOUTHERN VERMONT. WIND CHILL
WARNING AND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY.

NEGATIVE TILTING OF TROUGH WILL SLOW THE LOWS PROGRESSION OUT TO
SEA, KEEPING MOISTURE AND A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HENCE, EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE OVER MOST OF VERMONT AND UPSLOPE SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECT THE LOW TO
MOVE FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY TO ALLOW
SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH...THOUGH UPSLOPE MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION PERSISTS THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND
THE LOW. 925MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS TO -20S AND
WINDS AROUND 10-20 MPG WITH SOME GUSTS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR AND ONSET OF CLEARING
SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. NORTHERN NY WILL SEE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
AS IT WILL SEE THE MOST CLEARING. WIND CHILLS WILL BECOME
DANGEROUSLY COLD, FALLING COLDER THAN -20 DEGREES AROUND MIDNIGHT.
MOST OF NORTHERN NY IS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE WIND CHILLS AROUND
-30 OR COLDER. CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND REST OF VT NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS COLD DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

ONCE SURVIVING THE DANGEROUS COLD TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING, RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
SUBSIDE AND HELP THE COASTAL LOW TO MOVE FURTHER TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TO WARM
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MAX TEMPS REMAINING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST AREAS. SOUTHERN VALLEYS MAY SEE DOUBLE DIGITS.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHRINKS SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT, UPPER WAVE
WILL TRY TO BRING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY TO NORTHERN
NY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE RANGING FROM NEGATIVE MID-TEENS TO
NEAR ZERO. RETURN TO NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM 5
TO 15 DEGREES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE ACTIVE WEATHER AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN RIDGE
INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER
WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. BY
FRIDAY MORNING ANOTHER LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE ONLY DAY OF
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH A CHANCE AT NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE COLD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS VERMONT AND
BRINGS PERIODIC MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO BTV...MPV AND RUT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT AFTER ABOUT 12Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY-12Z MONDAY...VFR.

12Z MONDAY-00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR AS SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF
REGION. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM 12Z
MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

00Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER CROSSING THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VTZ001>012-
     016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KALY 301833
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
133 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST OF CAPE COD THIS AFTERNOON.
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF
SNOW THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A SNOW SQUALL THIS AFTERNOON. A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC
AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW USHERED IN BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 133 PM EST...THE SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE MOVES
RIGHT OVER THE CAPITAL REGION. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
A COATING TO AN INCH HERE OF THERE. THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM NRN NY AND JUST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SOME
ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH THE BOUNDARY.

THE WINTER WX ADVISORY WAS EXPIRED FOR THE NRN TIER FOR THE
SNOW...THE WIND CHILLS BECOME THE ISSUE IN THE ADVISORY STATEMENT
AND WE MAY REACH WARNING CRITERIA OVER THE SRN DACKS...WHERE WIND
CHILL WARNINGS ARE POSTED.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 30-40 MPH BTWN 3 PM AND 6 PM DUE TO
STRENGTHENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN THE DEEPENING AND
INTENSIFYING CYCLONE SE OF LONG ISLAND AND THE ANTICYCLONE BUILD
IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MIDWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WIND CHILL WARNINGS FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN NEW
YORK AND ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND. ALL TIMES ARE FROM 6 PM THROUGH 11AM
SATURDAY.

TONIGHT...THERE STILL COULD SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR AWHILE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT. OTHERWISE...THE SKY SHOULD
EVENTUALLY CLEAR BUT THE WIND WILL CONTINUE AND TEMPERATURES WILL
DIVE TO NEAR ZERO IN THE CAPITAL REGION...5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES...SINGLE NUMBERS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
WIND GUSTS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 35-40 MPH RANGE AT TIMES.

THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES HAS PROMPTED
US TO CONTINUE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES EVERYWHERE TONIGHT EXCEPT WIND
CHILL WARNINGS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES.

THE WIND WILL BE RESULT OF A DEEP LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING IN THE GULF
OF MAINE. THE LOW WILL ONLY SLOW FURTHER MOVE AWAY ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE A MAINLY SUNNY BUT WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD DAY. THE
WIND WILL ABATE A LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPERATURES
ONLY RECOVER TO 20 AT BEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...ONLY SINGLE NUMBERS OVER
OUR NORTHERN AREAS...INCLUDING MOST OF SOUTHERN VERMONT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...BELIEVE IT OR NOT...YET ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT A WEAK
CLIPPER WILL WORK ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER SHOULD
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE CLOUDS
AND THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT. THE APPROACHING FRONT
WILL SERVE TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING QUITE AS LOW AS THEY
WOULD HAVE OTHERWISE. STILL LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES AROUND ZERO TO
THEN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SINGLE NUMBERS TO AROUND 10
CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEARLY EXCELLENT SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT AMONG THE LONG TERM FORECAST
GUIDANCE THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST TRENDS FOR THE MONDAY EVENT
HAVE TRENDED NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN.

FOR SUNDAY...FEBRUARY 1ST...ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WE HAVE
BEEN DISCUSSING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS STILL PROGGED TO SLIDE
SOUTHWARD AND EITHER STALL OR BECOME ILL-DEFINED THROUGH THE DAY.
PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT DOES DIFFER AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH RECENT
TENDENCIES PLACING IT ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE I80 CORRIDOR.  THEN
WE QUICKLY SHIFT OUR ATTENTION TO THE APPROACHING OHIO VALLEY SYSTEM.

THE STRONG PV ANOMALY WAS ASHORE ALONG BRITISH COLUMBIA AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION PER THE
H2O VAPOR ANALYSIS THIS FRIDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO MERGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND SPAWN SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS BETWEEN I70-I80. THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC MONDAY MORNING. THE QPF FIELDS AND 2D-FGEN FIELDS LINE UP
MAINLY SOUTH OF I90 ON MONDAY WHERE AN ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT IS
EXPECTED. ENSEMBLE DATA AND PLUMES NOW SUGGEST MORE THAN HALF THE
MEMBERS ARE FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. IN FACT...THE LATEST
30/06Z NAM12 IS FURTHER NORTH AS WELL WITH MODERATE QPF VALUES. WE
WILL REINTRODUCE THIS POTENTIAL MILLER TYPE B EVENT INTO THE HWO
AT THIS TIME. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION ARE NOT ONLY COLD
BUT WILL OFFER A CHALLENGE WITH RESPECT TO LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS.
THE HIGHER RATIOS WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I90 WHERE
VALUES COULD BE APPROACHING 20:1. STILL PLENTY OF TIME AS THIS PV
ANOMALY WILL BE ENTERING THE UPPER AIR NETWORK WHICH
SHOULD...HOPEFULLY...RESOLVE AND NARROW THE SOLUTIONS. AS AN
FYI...EVALUATING THE LATEST CIPS GUIDANCE...MANY OF THE MATCHES DO
BRING AN ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION.

THIS WAVE DEPARTS OFF THE COAST MONDAY EVENING AS 1030MB SURFACE
HIGH SLIDES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE
NORTHEAST.  AS H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW -20C...AND
POTENTIAL FOR A FRESH SNOW COVER...WILL PROVIDE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
A VERY COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME
LOCATIONS ATTEMPT TO APPROACH RECORD LOWS.

THE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH
SHOULD KEEP OUR WEATHER PATTERN TRANQUIL YET CHILLY.  NEXT ARCTIC
IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  THE TIMING OF THIS ARCTIC FRONTAL AND
TRACK OF A SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE COULD MAKE FOR AN INTERESTING
COASTAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THURSDAY.  WHILE MAJORITY OF THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THIS WAVE OFFSHORE...THERE ARE A FEW OUTLYING
MEMBERS THAT KEEP THIS WAVE CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS ACCOMPANYING
BURSTS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
RAPIDLY IMPROVING TO VFR AS DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...STILL SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL RESULT
IN REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH 20Z AT
KGFL...KALB AND KPSF. ANY LINGERING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY
20Z AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT KPOU EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN
18Z-20Z. AFTER 21Z...EXPECT VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL
CLEARING AT ALL TAF SITES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS...AT TIMES UP TO 30
KNOTS AT KALB AND KPSF.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD SATURDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
8-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

SNOW WILL TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL WILL RANGE
FROM 1-3 INCHES FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...3-6 INCHES
FURTHER NORTH.

ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
WITH GENERALLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.

THERE IS ALSO A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 301833
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
133 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST OF CAPE COD THIS AFTERNOON.
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF
SNOW THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A SNOW SQUALL THIS AFTERNOON. A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC
AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW USHERED IN BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 133 PM EST...THE SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE MOVES
RIGHT OVER THE CAPITAL REGION. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
A COATING TO AN INCH HERE OF THERE. THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM NRN NY AND JUST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SOME
ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH THE BOUNDARY.

THE WINTER WX ADVISORY WAS EXPIRED FOR THE NRN TIER FOR THE
SNOW...THE WIND CHILLS BECOME THE ISSUE IN THE ADVISORY STATEMENT
AND WE MAY REACH WARNING CRITERIA OVER THE SRN DACKS...WHERE WIND
CHILL WARNINGS ARE POSTED.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 30-40 MPH BTWN 3 PM AND 6 PM DUE TO
STRENGTHENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN THE DEEPENING AND
INTENSIFYING CYCLONE SE OF LONG ISLAND AND THE ANTICYCLONE BUILD
IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MIDWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WIND CHILL WARNINGS FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN NEW
YORK AND ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND. ALL TIMES ARE FROM 6 PM THROUGH 11AM
SATURDAY.

TONIGHT...THERE STILL COULD SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR AWHILE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT. OTHERWISE...THE SKY SHOULD
EVENTUALLY CLEAR BUT THE WIND WILL CONTINUE AND TEMPERATURES WILL
DIVE TO NEAR ZERO IN THE CAPITAL REGION...5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES...SINGLE NUMBERS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
WIND GUSTS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 35-40 MPH RANGE AT TIMES.

THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES HAS PROMPTED
US TO CONTINUE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES EVERYWHERE TONIGHT EXCEPT WIND
CHILL WARNINGS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES.

THE WIND WILL BE RESULT OF A DEEP LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING IN THE GULF
OF MAINE. THE LOW WILL ONLY SLOW FURTHER MOVE AWAY ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE A MAINLY SUNNY BUT WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD DAY. THE
WIND WILL ABATE A LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPERATURES
ONLY RECOVER TO 20 AT BEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...ONLY SINGLE NUMBERS OVER
OUR NORTHERN AREAS...INCLUDING MOST OF SOUTHERN VERMONT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...BELIEVE IT OR NOT...YET ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT A WEAK
CLIPPER WILL WORK ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER SHOULD
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE CLOUDS
AND THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT. THE APPROACHING FRONT
WILL SERVE TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING QUITE AS LOW AS THEY
WOULD HAVE OTHERWISE. STILL LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES AROUND ZERO TO
THEN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SINGLE NUMBERS TO AROUND 10
CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEARLY EXCELLENT SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT AMONG THE LONG TERM FORECAST
GUIDANCE THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST TRENDS FOR THE MONDAY EVENT
HAVE TRENDED NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN.

FOR SUNDAY...FEBRUARY 1ST...ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WE HAVE
BEEN DISCUSSING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS STILL PROGGED TO SLIDE
SOUTHWARD AND EITHER STALL OR BECOME ILL-DEFINED THROUGH THE DAY.
PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT DOES DIFFER AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH RECENT
TENDENCIES PLACING IT ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE I80 CORRIDOR.  THEN
WE QUICKLY SHIFT OUR ATTENTION TO THE APPROACHING OHIO VALLEY SYSTEM.

THE STRONG PV ANOMALY WAS ASHORE ALONG BRITISH COLUMBIA AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION PER THE
H2O VAPOR ANALYSIS THIS FRIDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO MERGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND SPAWN SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS BETWEEN I70-I80. THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC MONDAY MORNING. THE QPF FIELDS AND 2D-FGEN FIELDS LINE UP
MAINLY SOUTH OF I90 ON MONDAY WHERE AN ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT IS
EXPECTED. ENSEMBLE DATA AND PLUMES NOW SUGGEST MORE THAN HALF THE
MEMBERS ARE FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. IN FACT...THE LATEST
30/06Z NAM12 IS FURTHER NORTH AS WELL WITH MODERATE QPF VALUES. WE
WILL REINTRODUCE THIS POTENTIAL MILLER TYPE B EVENT INTO THE HWO
AT THIS TIME. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION ARE NOT ONLY COLD
BUT WILL OFFER A CHALLENGE WITH RESPECT TO LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS.
THE HIGHER RATIOS WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I90 WHERE
VALUES COULD BE APPROACHING 20:1. STILL PLENTY OF TIME AS THIS PV
ANOMALY WILL BE ENTERING THE UPPER AIR NETWORK WHICH
SHOULD...HOPEFULLY...RESOLVE AND NARROW THE SOLUTIONS. AS AN
FYI...EVALUATING THE LATEST CIPS GUIDANCE...MANY OF THE MATCHES DO
BRING AN ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION.

THIS WAVE DEPARTS OFF THE COAST MONDAY EVENING AS 1030MB SURFACE
HIGH SLIDES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE
NORTHEAST.  AS H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW -20C...AND
POTENTIAL FOR A FRESH SNOW COVER...WILL PROVIDE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
A VERY COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME
LOCATIONS ATTEMPT TO APPROACH RECORD LOWS.

THE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH
SHOULD KEEP OUR WEATHER PATTERN TRANQUIL YET CHILLY.  NEXT ARCTIC
IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  THE TIMING OF THIS ARCTIC FRONTAL AND
TRACK OF A SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE COULD MAKE FOR AN INTERESTING
COASTAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THURSDAY.  WHILE MAJORITY OF THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THIS WAVE OFFSHORE...THERE ARE A FEW OUTLYING
MEMBERS THAT KEEP THIS WAVE CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS ACCOMPANYING
BURSTS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
RAPIDLY IMPROVING TO VFR AS DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...STILL SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL RESULT
IN REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH 20Z AT
KGFL...KALB AND KPSF. ANY LINGERING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY
20Z AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT KPOU EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN
18Z-20Z. AFTER 21Z...EXPECT VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL
CLEARING AT ALL TAF SITES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS...AT TIMES UP TO 30
KNOTS AT KALB AND KPSF.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD SATURDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
8-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

SNOW WILL TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL WILL RANGE
FROM 1-3 INCHES FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...3-6 INCHES
FURTHER NORTH.

ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
WITH GENERALLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.

THERE IS ALSO A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 301833
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
133 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST OF CAPE COD THIS AFTERNOON.
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF
SNOW THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A SNOW SQUALL THIS AFTERNOON. A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC
AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW USHERED IN BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 133 PM EST...THE SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE MOVES
RIGHT OVER THE CAPITAL REGION. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
A COATING TO AN INCH HERE OF THERE. THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM NRN NY AND JUST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SOME
ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH THE BOUNDARY.

THE WINTER WX ADVISORY WAS EXPIRED FOR THE NRN TIER FOR THE
SNOW...THE WIND CHILLS BECOME THE ISSUE IN THE ADVISORY STATEMENT
AND WE MAY REACH WARNING CRITERIA OVER THE SRN DACKS...WHERE WIND
CHILL WARNINGS ARE POSTED.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 30-40 MPH BTWN 3 PM AND 6 PM DUE TO
STRENGTHENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN THE DEEPENING AND
INTENSIFYING CYCLONE SE OF LONG ISLAND AND THE ANTICYCLONE BUILD
IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MIDWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WIND CHILL WARNINGS FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN NEW
YORK AND ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND. ALL TIMES ARE FROM 6 PM THROUGH 11AM
SATURDAY.

TONIGHT...THERE STILL COULD SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR AWHILE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT. OTHERWISE...THE SKY SHOULD
EVENTUALLY CLEAR BUT THE WIND WILL CONTINUE AND TEMPERATURES WILL
DIVE TO NEAR ZERO IN THE CAPITAL REGION...5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES...SINGLE NUMBERS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
WIND GUSTS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 35-40 MPH RANGE AT TIMES.

THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES HAS PROMPTED
US TO CONTINUE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES EVERYWHERE TONIGHT EXCEPT WIND
CHILL WARNINGS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES.

THE WIND WILL BE RESULT OF A DEEP LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING IN THE GULF
OF MAINE. THE LOW WILL ONLY SLOW FURTHER MOVE AWAY ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE A MAINLY SUNNY BUT WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD DAY. THE
WIND WILL ABATE A LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPERATURES
ONLY RECOVER TO 20 AT BEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...ONLY SINGLE NUMBERS OVER
OUR NORTHERN AREAS...INCLUDING MOST OF SOUTHERN VERMONT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...BELIEVE IT OR NOT...YET ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT A WEAK
CLIPPER WILL WORK ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER SHOULD
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE CLOUDS
AND THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT. THE APPROACHING FRONT
WILL SERVE TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING QUITE AS LOW AS THEY
WOULD HAVE OTHERWISE. STILL LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES AROUND ZERO TO
THEN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SINGLE NUMBERS TO AROUND 10
CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEARLY EXCELLENT SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT AMONG THE LONG TERM FORECAST
GUIDANCE THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST TRENDS FOR THE MONDAY EVENT
HAVE TRENDED NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN.

FOR SUNDAY...FEBRUARY 1ST...ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WE HAVE
BEEN DISCUSSING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS STILL PROGGED TO SLIDE
SOUTHWARD AND EITHER STALL OR BECOME ILL-DEFINED THROUGH THE DAY.
PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT DOES DIFFER AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH RECENT
TENDENCIES PLACING IT ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE I80 CORRIDOR.  THEN
WE QUICKLY SHIFT OUR ATTENTION TO THE APPROACHING OHIO VALLEY SYSTEM.

THE STRONG PV ANOMALY WAS ASHORE ALONG BRITISH COLUMBIA AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION PER THE
H2O VAPOR ANALYSIS THIS FRIDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO MERGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND SPAWN SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS BETWEEN I70-I80. THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC MONDAY MORNING. THE QPF FIELDS AND 2D-FGEN FIELDS LINE UP
MAINLY SOUTH OF I90 ON MONDAY WHERE AN ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT IS
EXPECTED. ENSEMBLE DATA AND PLUMES NOW SUGGEST MORE THAN HALF THE
MEMBERS ARE FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. IN FACT...THE LATEST
30/06Z NAM12 IS FURTHER NORTH AS WELL WITH MODERATE QPF VALUES. WE
WILL REINTRODUCE THIS POTENTIAL MILLER TYPE B EVENT INTO THE HWO
AT THIS TIME. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION ARE NOT ONLY COLD
BUT WILL OFFER A CHALLENGE WITH RESPECT TO LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS.
THE HIGHER RATIOS WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I90 WHERE
VALUES COULD BE APPROACHING 20:1. STILL PLENTY OF TIME AS THIS PV
ANOMALY WILL BE ENTERING THE UPPER AIR NETWORK WHICH
SHOULD...HOPEFULLY...RESOLVE AND NARROW THE SOLUTIONS. AS AN
FYI...EVALUATING THE LATEST CIPS GUIDANCE...MANY OF THE MATCHES DO
BRING AN ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION.

THIS WAVE DEPARTS OFF THE COAST MONDAY EVENING AS 1030MB SURFACE
HIGH SLIDES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE
NORTHEAST.  AS H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW -20C...AND
POTENTIAL FOR A FRESH SNOW COVER...WILL PROVIDE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
A VERY COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME
LOCATIONS ATTEMPT TO APPROACH RECORD LOWS.

THE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH
SHOULD KEEP OUR WEATHER PATTERN TRANQUIL