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000
FXUS61 KBTV 011125
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
725 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO
AN END THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
ON THE HEELS OF THE WARM FRONT IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 725 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
JUST SOME TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS.
OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THIS MORNING WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER
TEENS. PLENTY OF SUN IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S...BUT ENOUGH MIXING TO OCCUR THAT WILL KEEP
DEW POINTS LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
LOWERING INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A TRANSITION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO
THE 40S TO AROUND 50. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP
ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT...BUT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THIS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...MOST OF IT WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AS HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND SOME
SNOWMELT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MELT/BREAK UP RIVER AND LAKE ICE AS
WELL AS CAUSING SOME RISES ON RIVERS...BUT NONE OF THE PARAMETERS
MENTIONED SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE ANY SUBSTANTIAL FLOOD
CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SPREADING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME RAIN WILL
MIX IN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AND IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ALSO HAVE SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION STAYS MOSTLY SNOW COULD HAVE SOME HIGHER TOTALS IN
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...THOUGH TOUGH TO TELL AT THIS POINT.
PRECIPITATION ENDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
SURFACE FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG FRONT BRINGING US ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL
PROVIDE US WITH A QUIET AVIATION FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011125
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
725 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO
AN END THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
ON THE HEELS OF THE WARM FRONT IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 725 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
JUST SOME TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS.
OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THIS MORNING WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER
TEENS. PLENTY OF SUN IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S...BUT ENOUGH MIXING TO OCCUR THAT WILL KEEP
DEW POINTS LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
LOWERING INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A TRANSITION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO
THE 40S TO AROUND 50. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP
ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT...BUT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THIS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...MOST OF IT WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AS HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND SOME
SNOWMELT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MELT/BREAK UP RIVER AND LAKE ICE AS
WELL AS CAUSING SOME RISES ON RIVERS...BUT NONE OF THE PARAMETERS
MENTIONED SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE ANY SUBSTANTIAL FLOOD
CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SPREADING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME RAIN WILL
MIX IN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AND IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ALSO HAVE SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION STAYS MOSTLY SNOW COULD HAVE SOME HIGHER TOTALS IN
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...THOUGH TOUGH TO TELL AT THIS POINT.
PRECIPITATION ENDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
SURFACE FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG FRONT BRINGING US ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL
PROVIDE US WITH A QUIET AVIATION FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 011109
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
709 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO
AN END THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
ON THE HEELS OF THE WARM FRONT IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. PLENTY OF SUN IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S...BUT ENOUGH MIXING
TO OCCUR THAT WILL KEEP DEW POINTS LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOWERING INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT
RANGE...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A TRANSITION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO
THE 40S TO AROUND 50. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP
ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT...BUT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THIS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...MOST OF IT WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AS HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND SOME
SNOWMELT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MELT/BREAK UP RIVER AND LAKE ICE AS
WELL AS CAUSING SOME RISES ON RIVERS...BUT NONE OF THE PARAMETERS
MENTIONED SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE ANY SUBSTANTIAL FLOOD
CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SPREADING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME RAIN WILL
MIX IN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AND IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ALSO HAVE SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION STAYS MOSTLY SNOW COULD HAVE SOME HIGHER TOTALS IN
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...THOUGH TOUGH TO TELL AT THIS POINT.
PRECIPITATION ENDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
SURFACE FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG FRONT BRINGING US ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL
PROVIDE US WITH A QUIET AVIATION FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND LESS
THAN 10 KTS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARDS THURSDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 011109
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
709 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO
AN END THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
ON THE HEELS OF THE WARM FRONT IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. PLENTY OF SUN IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S...BUT ENOUGH MIXING
TO OCCUR THAT WILL KEEP DEW POINTS LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOWERING INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT
RANGE...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A TRANSITION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO
THE 40S TO AROUND 50. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP
ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT...BUT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THIS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...MOST OF IT WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AS HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND SOME
SNOWMELT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MELT/BREAK UP RIVER AND LAKE ICE AS
WELL AS CAUSING SOME RISES ON RIVERS...BUT NONE OF THE PARAMETERS
MENTIONED SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE ANY SUBSTANTIAL FLOOD
CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SPREADING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME RAIN WILL
MIX IN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AND IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ALSO HAVE SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION STAYS MOSTLY SNOW COULD HAVE SOME HIGHER TOTALS IN
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...THOUGH TOUGH TO TELL AT THIS POINT.
PRECIPITATION ENDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
SURFACE FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG FRONT BRINGING US ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL
PROVIDE US WITH A QUIET AVIATION FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND LESS
THAN 10 KTS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA TOWARDS THURSDAY
MORNING.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES


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000
FXUS61 KALY 011045
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 610 AM EDT...OTHER THAN SOME EARLY MORNING CLOUDS MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA...EXPECT A MOSTLY
SUNNY TO SUNNY BUT COOL DAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO CENTRAL NY BY LATE IN THE
DAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE
UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL GO
FROM MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR
REGION WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. VARIABLE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE
ORDER OF THE DAY AS SOME CLEARING AND DOWNSLOPING IN THE VALLEYS
IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. IT WILL BE A MILD AND
BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR STILL SOME
UPPER 40S ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION
REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE MOVING THROUGH THE FA
DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
FEATURING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT ONLY IS RAIN EXPECTED...BUT THE RAIN WILL BE CHANGING
TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA OVERNIGHT WITH AT
LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AS
NORTHERN JETSTREAM CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LOW AS THERE ARE SOME PRETTY GOOD
DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW WE LEANED WITH
WPC IN THIS CASE...LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE GFS MODEL.

THE LONG RANGE STARTS ON SATURDAY...AS A DEPARTING BUT DEEPENING
STORM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND INCREASINGLY WINDY
DAY WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER
TERRAIN. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE 00Z GFS INDICATED A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAD A WEAKER ONE.  FOR
NOW...WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH 30 POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
WOULD INSURE WHATEVER WOULD FALL WOULD BE SNOW. AGAIN...RIGHT
NOW...ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED A
DRY START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATED ANOTHER
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD HAVE MORE PRECIPITATION KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR BY DAY/S END. FOR NOW...KEPT EASTER SUNDAY DRY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A LEAST A
LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HAVE LOW POPS EVERYWHERE. ANY
SHOWERS LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO BE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO AROUND 30...BUT CHANGING TO RAIN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST.
WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY SHOULD TURN MILDER IF THE GFS
PANS OUT AS A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES. ALONG WITH THE
WARMUP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASES...ESPECIALLY LATE
TUESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE ECWMF HAS ANOTHER CLIPPER WORKING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH BEFORE ANY REAL
WARMUP ENSUES...TURNING COOLER BY TUESDAY WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER.

AGAIN...SINCE WE HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE WARMER GFS...WE WILL
CARRY 30-40 POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS 50-55 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 20S...SO ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW NORTH...A WINTRY MIX
SOUTH...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 50-55 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...40S
HIGHER TERRAIN/HIGHER IF THE GFS IS TOTALLY RIGHT/BUT LOWER IF THE
ECWMF IS CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

VFR CONDITION THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE WILL BE FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS TODAY...AND NOT MANY
TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES LOOK TO BE UNRESTRICTED.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10KTS TODAY...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
20KTS AT KALB AND KPSF AT TIMES LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.

NOTE...THE RAIN SENSOR WAS LEFT ON OVERNIGHT AT THE KPOU METAR...IT
IS NOT RAINING AT KPOU AT THIS TIME. NO PRECIPITATION WAS FALLING AT
ALL.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXAMINING NOHRSC INDICATES MOST OF THE SNOW IS NOW GONE IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ABOUT THE MOHAWK RIVER SOUTHWARD. FURTHER
NORTH...SNOW WAS PATCHY BUT STILL IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY. PLENTY OF SNOW STILL COVERED MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SURROUNDING THE HUDSON VALLEY.

TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...CHILLY AND DRY WITH LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES...GENERALLY IN THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED.

THEN ON THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH 15 TO
25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. AFTERNOON RH VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND
40 PERCENT. HOWEVER...IF THE WIND WERE TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...THEY COULD DIP A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT.

CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS...WHICH
WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY. IT LOOKS AS IF EVERYONE SHOULD
END UP WITH OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL EQUIVALENT DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS
OF RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS
A FEW ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 011045
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 610 AM EDT...OTHER THAN SOME EARLY MORNING CLOUDS MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA...EXPECT A MOSTLY
SUNNY TO SUNNY BUT COOL DAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO CENTRAL NY BY LATE IN THE
DAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE
UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL GO
FROM MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR
REGION WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. VARIABLE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE
ORDER OF THE DAY AS SOME CLEARING AND DOWNSLOPING IN THE VALLEYS
IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. IT WILL BE A MILD AND
BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR STILL SOME
UPPER 40S ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION
REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE MOVING THROUGH THE FA
DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
FEATURING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT ONLY IS RAIN EXPECTED...BUT THE RAIN WILL BE CHANGING
TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA OVERNIGHT WITH AT
LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AS
NORTHERN JETSTREAM CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LOW AS THERE ARE SOME PRETTY GOOD
DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW WE LEANED WITH
WPC IN THIS CASE...LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE GFS MODEL.

THE LONG RANGE STARTS ON SATURDAY...AS A DEPARTING BUT DEEPENING
STORM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND INCREASINGLY WINDY
DAY WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER
TERRAIN. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE 00Z GFS INDICATED A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAD A WEAKER ONE.  FOR
NOW...WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH 30 POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
WOULD INSURE WHATEVER WOULD FALL WOULD BE SNOW. AGAIN...RIGHT
NOW...ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED A
DRY START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATED ANOTHER
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD HAVE MORE PRECIPITATION KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR BY DAY/S END. FOR NOW...KEPT EASTER SUNDAY DRY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A LEAST A
LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HAVE LOW POPS EVERYWHERE. ANY
SHOWERS LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO BE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO AROUND 30...BUT CHANGING TO RAIN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST.
WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY SHOULD TURN MILDER IF THE GFS
PANS OUT AS A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES. ALONG WITH THE
WARMUP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASES...ESPECIALLY LATE
TUESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE ECWMF HAS ANOTHER CLIPPER WORKING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH BEFORE ANY REAL
WARMUP ENSUES...TURNING COOLER BY TUESDAY WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER.

AGAIN...SINCE WE HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE WARMER GFS...WE WILL
CARRY 30-40 POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS 50-55 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 20S...SO ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW NORTH...A WINTRY MIX
SOUTH...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 50-55 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...40S
HIGHER TERRAIN/HIGHER IF THE GFS IS TOTALLY RIGHT/BUT LOWER IF THE
ECWMF IS CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

VFR CONDITION THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE WILL BE FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS TODAY...AND NOT MANY
TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES LOOK TO BE UNRESTRICTED.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10KTS TODAY...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
20KTS AT KALB AND KPSF AT TIMES LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.

NOTE...THE RAIN SENSOR WAS LEFT ON OVERNIGHT AT THE KPOU METAR...IT
IS NOT RAINING AT KPOU AT THIS TIME. NO PRECIPITATION WAS FALLING AT
ALL.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXAMINING NOHRSC INDICATES MOST OF THE SNOW IS NOW GONE IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ABOUT THE MOHAWK RIVER SOUTHWARD. FURTHER
NORTH...SNOW WAS PATCHY BUT STILL IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY. PLENTY OF SNOW STILL COVERED MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SURROUNDING THE HUDSON VALLEY.

TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...CHILLY AND DRY WITH LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES...GENERALLY IN THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED.

THEN ON THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH 15 TO
25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. AFTERNOON RH VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND
40 PERCENT. HOWEVER...IF THE WIND WERE TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...THEY COULD DIP A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT.

CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS...WHICH
WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY. IT LOOKS AS IF EVERYONE SHOULD
END UP WITH OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL EQUIVALENT DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS
OF RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS
A FEW ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 011010
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
610 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 610 AM EDT...OTHER THAN SOME EARLY MORNING CLOUDS MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA...EXPECT A MOSTLY
SUNNY TO SUNNY BUT COOL DAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO CENTRAL NY BY LATE IN THE
DAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE
UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL GO
FROM MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR
REGION WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. VARIABLE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE
ORDER OF THE DAY AS SOME CLEARING AND DOWNSLOPING IN THE VALLEYS
IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. IT WILL BE A MILD AND
BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR STILL SOME
UPPER 40S ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION
REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE MOVING THROUGH THE FA
DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
FEATURING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT ONLY IS RAIN EXPECTED...BUT THE RAIN WILL BE CHANGING
TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA OVERNIGHT WITH AT
LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AS
NORTHERN JETSTREAM CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LOW AS THERE ARE SOME PRETTY GOOD
DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW WE LEANED WITH
WPC IN THIS CASE...LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE GFS MODEL.

THE LONG RANGE STARTS ON SATURDAY...AS A DEPARTING BUT DEEPENING
STORM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND INCREASINGLY WINDY
DAY WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER
TERRAIN. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE 00Z GFS INDICATED A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAD A WEAKER ONE.  FOR
NOW...WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH 30 POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
WOULD INSURE WHATEVER WOULD FALL WOULD BE SNOW. AGAIN...RIGHT
NOW...ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED A
DRY START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATED ANOTHER
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD HAVE MORE PRECIPITATION KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR BY DAY/S END. FOR NOW...KEPT EASTER SUNDAY DRY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A LEAST A
LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HAVE LOW POPS EVERYWHERE. ANY
SHOWERS LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO BE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO AROUND 30...BUT CHANGING TO RAIN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST.
WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY SHOULD TURN MILDER IF THE GFS
PANS OUT AS A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES. ALONG WITH THE
WARMUP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASES...ESPECIALLY LATE
TUESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE ECWMF HAS ANOTHER CLIPPER WORKING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH BEFORE ANY REAL
WARMUP ENSUES...TURNING COOLER BY TUESDAY WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER.

AGAIN...SINCE WE HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE WARMER GFS...WE WILL
CARRY 30-40 POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS 50-55 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 20S...SO ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW NORTH...A WINTRY MIX
SOUTH...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 50-55 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...40S
HIGHER TERRAIN/HIGHER IF THE GFS IS TOTALLY RIGHT/BUT LOWER IF THE
ECWMF IS CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATE AT 450 AM EDT...AT KPOU...THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT A
LITTLE FASTER THAN WE ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WERE
DROPPING AND LIGHT BREEZE FROM THE NORTHWEST WAS INCREASING.

THEREFORE...THE THREAT OF ANY FOG LOOKS NIL FROM HERE ON IN AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

NOTE...IT APPEARS THE RAIN SENSOR WAS LEFT ON OVERNIGHT...IT IS NOT
RAINING AT KPOU AT THIS TIME. NO PRECIPITATION WAS FALLING AT ALL.

THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES...KGFL/KALB AND KPSF ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS WELL...WITH FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE
CLOUDS AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST 5KTS OR LESS
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10KTS LATER TODAY
WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE INTO THE TEENS (NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
YET).

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TAFS INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXAMINING NOHRSC INDICATES MOST OF THE SNOW IS NOW GONE IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ABOUT THE MOHAWK RIVER SOUTHWARD. FURTHER
NORTH...SNOW WAS PATCHY BUT STILL IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY. PLENTY OF SNOW STILL COVERED MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SURROUNDING THE HUDSON VALLEY.

TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...CHILLY AND DRY WITH LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES...GENERALLY IN THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED.

THEN ON THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH 15 TO
25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. AFTERNOON RH VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND
40 PERCENT. HOWEVER...IF THE WIND WERE TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...THEY COULD DIP A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT.

CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS...WHICH
WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY. IT LOOKS AS IF EVERYONE SHOULD
END UP WITH OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL EQUIVALENT DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS
OF RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS
A FEW ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 011010
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
610 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 610 AM EDT...OTHER THAN SOME EARLY MORNING CLOUDS MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA...EXPECT A MOSTLY
SUNNY TO SUNNY BUT COOL DAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO CENTRAL NY BY LATE IN THE
DAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE
UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL GO
FROM MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR
REGION WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. VARIABLE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE
ORDER OF THE DAY AS SOME CLEARING AND DOWNSLOPING IN THE VALLEYS
IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. IT WILL BE A MILD AND
BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR STILL SOME
UPPER 40S ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION
REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE MOVING THROUGH THE FA
DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
FEATURING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT ONLY IS RAIN EXPECTED...BUT THE RAIN WILL BE CHANGING
TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA OVERNIGHT WITH AT
LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AS
NORTHERN JETSTREAM CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LOW AS THERE ARE SOME PRETTY GOOD
DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW WE LEANED WITH
WPC IN THIS CASE...LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE GFS MODEL.

THE LONG RANGE STARTS ON SATURDAY...AS A DEPARTING BUT DEEPENING
STORM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND INCREASINGLY WINDY
DAY WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER
TERRAIN. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE 00Z GFS INDICATED A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAD A WEAKER ONE.  FOR
NOW...WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH 30 POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
WOULD INSURE WHATEVER WOULD FALL WOULD BE SNOW. AGAIN...RIGHT
NOW...ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED A
DRY START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATED ANOTHER
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD HAVE MORE PRECIPITATION KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR BY DAY/S END. FOR NOW...KEPT EASTER SUNDAY DRY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A LEAST A
LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HAVE LOW POPS EVERYWHERE. ANY
SHOWERS LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO BE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO AROUND 30...BUT CHANGING TO RAIN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST.
WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY SHOULD TURN MILDER IF THE GFS
PANS OUT AS A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES. ALONG WITH THE
WARMUP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASES...ESPECIALLY LATE
TUESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE ECWMF HAS ANOTHER CLIPPER WORKING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH BEFORE ANY REAL
WARMUP ENSUES...TURNING COOLER BY TUESDAY WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER.

AGAIN...SINCE WE HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE WARMER GFS...WE WILL
CARRY 30-40 POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS 50-55 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 20S...SO ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW NORTH...A WINTRY MIX
SOUTH...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 50-55 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...40S
HIGHER TERRAIN/HIGHER IF THE GFS IS TOTALLY RIGHT/BUT LOWER IF THE
ECWMF IS CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATE AT 450 AM EDT...AT KPOU...THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT A
LITTLE FASTER THAN WE ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WERE
DROPPING AND LIGHT BREEZE FROM THE NORTHWEST WAS INCREASING.

THEREFORE...THE THREAT OF ANY FOG LOOKS NIL FROM HERE ON IN AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

NOTE...IT APPEARS THE RAIN SENSOR WAS LEFT ON OVERNIGHT...IT IS NOT
RAINING AT KPOU AT THIS TIME. NO PRECIPITATION WAS FALLING AT ALL.

THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES...KGFL/KALB AND KPSF ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS WELL...WITH FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE
CLOUDS AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST 5KTS OR LESS
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10KTS LATER TODAY
WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE INTO THE TEENS (NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
YET).

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TAFS INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXAMINING NOHRSC INDICATES MOST OF THE SNOW IS NOW GONE IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ABOUT THE MOHAWK RIVER SOUTHWARD. FURTHER
NORTH...SNOW WAS PATCHY BUT STILL IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY. PLENTY OF SNOW STILL COVERED MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SURROUNDING THE HUDSON VALLEY.

TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...CHILLY AND DRY WITH LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES...GENERALLY IN THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED.

THEN ON THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH 15 TO
25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. AFTERNOON RH VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND
40 PERCENT. HOWEVER...IF THE WIND WERE TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...THEY COULD DIP A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT.

CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS...WHICH
WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY. IT LOOKS AS IF EVERYONE SHOULD
END UP WITH OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL EQUIVALENT DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS
OF RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS
A FEW ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 010853
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
450 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OTHER THAN SOME EARLY MORNING CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA...EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY BUT COOL DAY
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO CENTRAL NY BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL GO
FROM MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR
REGION WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. VARIABLE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE
ORDER OF THE DAY AS SOME CLEARING AND DOWNSLOPING IN THE VALLEYS
IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. IT WILL BE A MILD AND
BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR STILL SOME
UPPER 40S ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION
REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE MOVING THROUGH THE FA
DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
FEATURING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT ONLY IS RAIN EXPECTED...BUT THE RAIN WILL BE CHANGING
TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA OVERNIGHT WITH AT
LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AS
NORTHERN JETSTREAM CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LOW AS THERE ARE SOME PRETTY GOOD
DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW WE LEANED WITH
WPC IN THIS CASE...LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE GFS MODEL.

THE LONG RANGE STARTS ON SATURDAY...AS A DEPARTING BUT DEEPENING
STORM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND INCREASINGLY WINDY
DAY WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER
TERRAIN. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE 00Z GFS INDICATED A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAD A WEAKER ONE.  FOR
NOW...WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH 30 POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
WOULD INSURE WHATEVER WOULD FALL WOULD BE SNOW. AGAIN...RIGHT
NOW...ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED A
DRY START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATED ANOTHER
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD HAVE MORE PRECIPITATION KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR BY DAY/S END. FOR NOW...KEPT EASTER SUNDAY DRY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A LEAST A
LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HAVE LOW POPS EVERYWHERE. ANY
SHOWERS LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO BE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO AROUND 30...BUT CHANGING TO RAIN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST.
WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY SHOULD TURN MILDER IF THE GFS
PANS OUT AS A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES. ALONG WITH THE
WARMUP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASES...ESPECIALLY LATE
TUESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE ECWMF HAS ANOTHER CLIPPER WORKING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH BEFORE ANY REAL
WARMUP ENSUES...TURNING COOLER BY TUESDAY WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER.

AGAIN...SINCE WE HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE WARMER GFS...WE WILL
CARRY 30-40 POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS 50-55 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 20S...SO ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW NORTH...A WINTRY MIX
SOUTH...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 50-55 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...40S
HIGHER TERRAIN/HIGHER IF THE GFS IS TOTALLY RIGHT/BUT LOWER IF THE
ECWMF IS CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

UPDATE AT 450 AM EDT...AT KPOU...THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT A
LITTLE FASTER THAN WE ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WERE
DROPPING AND LIGHT BREEZE FROM THE NORTHWEST WAS INCREASING.

THEREFORE...THE THREAT OF ANY FOG LOOKS NIL FROM HERE ON IN AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

NOTE...IT APPEARS THE RAIN SENSOR WAS LEFT ON OVERNIGHT...IT IS NOT
RAINING AT KPOU AT THIS TIME. NO PRECIPITATION WAS FALLING AT ALL.

THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES...KGFL/KALB AND KPSF ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS WELL...WITH FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE
CLOUDS AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST 5KTS OR LESS
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10KTS LATER TODAY
WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE INTO THE TEENS (NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
YET).

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TAFS INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXAMINING NOHRSC INDICATES MOST OF THE SNOW IS NOW GONE IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ABOUT THE MOHAWK RIVER SOUTHWARD. FURTHER
NORTH...SNOW WAS PATCHY BUT STILL IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY. PLENTY OF SNOW STILL COVERED MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SURROUNDING THE HUDSON VALLEY.

TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...CHILLY AND DRY WITH LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES...GENERALLY IN THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED.

THEN ON THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH 15 TO
25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. AFTERNOON RH VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND
40 PERCENT. HOWEVER...IF THE WIND WERE TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...THEY COULD DIP A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT.

CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS...WHICH
WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY. IT LOOKS AS IF EVERYONE SHOULD
END UP WITH OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL EQUIVALENT DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS
OF RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS
A FEW ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/11




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010829
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
429 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO
AN END THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
ON THE HEELS OF THE WARM FRONT IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. PLENTY OF SUN IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S...BUT ENOUGH MIXING
TO OCCUR THAT WILL KEEP DEW POINTS LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOWERING INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT
RANGE...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A TRANSITION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO
THE 40S TO AROUND 50. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP
ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT...BUT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THIS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...MOST OF IT WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AS HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND SOME
SNOWMELT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MELT/BREAK UP RIVER AND LAKE ICE AS
WELL AS CAUSING SOME RISES ON RIVERS...BUT NONE OF THE PARAMETERS
MENTIONED SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE ANY SUBSTANTIAL FLOOD
CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SPREADING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME RAIN WILL
MIX IN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AND IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ALSO HAVE SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION STAYS MOSTLY SNOW COULD HAVE SOME HIGHER TOTALS IN
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...THOUGH TOUGH TO TELL AT THIS POINT.
PRECIPITATION ENDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
SURFACE FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG FRONT BRINGING US ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, A QUIET AVIATION PERIOD WITH VFR SKC CONDITIONS (SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12KFT AGL). WINDS NORTH 4-8 KTS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010829
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
429 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO
AN END THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
ON THE HEELS OF THE WARM FRONT IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. PLENTY OF SUN IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S...BUT ENOUGH MIXING
TO OCCUR THAT WILL KEEP DEW POINTS LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOWERING INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT
RANGE...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A TRANSITION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO
THE 40S TO AROUND 50. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP
ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT...BUT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THIS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...MOST OF IT WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AS HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND SOME
SNOWMELT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MELT/BREAK UP RIVER AND LAKE ICE AS
WELL AS CAUSING SOME RISES ON RIVERS...BUT NONE OF THE PARAMETERS
MENTIONED SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE ANY SUBSTANTIAL FLOOD
CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SPREADING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME RAIN WILL
MIX IN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AND IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ALSO HAVE SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION STAYS MOSTLY SNOW COULD HAVE SOME HIGHER TOTALS IN
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...THOUGH TOUGH TO TELL AT THIS POINT.
PRECIPITATION ENDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
SURFACE FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG FRONT BRINGING US ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, A QUIET AVIATION PERIOD WITH VFR SKC CONDITIONS (SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12KFT AGL). WINDS NORTH 4-8 KTS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 010829
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
429 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO
AN END THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
ON THE HEELS OF THE WARM FRONT IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. PLENTY OF SUN IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S...BUT ENOUGH MIXING
TO OCCUR THAT WILL KEEP DEW POINTS LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOWERING INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT
RANGE...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A TRANSITION WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO
THE 40S TO AROUND 50. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP
ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT...BUT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THIS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...MOST OF IT WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AS HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND SOME
SNOWMELT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MELT/BREAK UP RIVER AND LAKE ICE AS
WELL AS CAUSING SOME RISES ON RIVERS...BUT NONE OF THE PARAMETERS
MENTIONED SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE ANY SUBSTANTIAL FLOOD
CONCERNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
SPREADING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME RAIN WILL
MIX IN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AND IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD ALSO HAVE SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION FOR NOW. IF
PRECIPITATION STAYS MOSTLY SNOW COULD HAVE SOME HIGHER TOTALS IN
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...THOUGH TOUGH TO TELL AT THIS POINT.
PRECIPITATION ENDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
SURFACE FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE SEVERAL
WAVES RIDE ALONG FRONT BRINGING US ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, A QUIET AVIATION PERIOD WITH VFR SKC CONDITIONS (SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12KFT AGL). WINDS NORTH 4-8 KTS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KALY 010813
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
413 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OTHER THAN SOME EARLY MORNING CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA...EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY BUT COOL DAY
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO CENTRAL NY BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL GO
FROM MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR
REGION WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. VARIABLE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE
ORDER OF THE DAY AS SOME CLEARING AND DOWNSLOPING IN THE VALLEYS
IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. IT WILL BE A MILD AND
BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR STILL SOME
UPPER 40S ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION
REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE MOVING THROUGH THE FA
DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
FEATURING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT ONLY IS RAIN EXPECTED...BUT THE RAIN WILL BE CHANGING
TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA OVERNIGHT WITH AT
LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AS
NORTHERN JETSTREAM CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LOW AS THERE ARE SOME PRETTY GOOD
DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW WE LEANED WITH
WPC IN THIS CASE...LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE GFS MODEL.

THE LONG RANGE STARTS ON SATURDAY...AS A DEPARTING BUT DEEPENING
STORM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND INCREASINGLY WINDY
DAY WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER
TERRAIN. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE 00Z GFS INDICATED A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAD A WEAKER ONE.  FOR
NOW...WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH 30 POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
WOULD INSURE WHATEVER WOULD FALL WOULD BE SNOW. AGAIN...RIGHT
NOW...ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED A
DRY START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATED ANOTHER
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD HAVE MORE PRECIPITATION KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR BY DAY/S END. FOR NOW...KEPT EASTER SUNDAY DRY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A LEAST A
LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HAVE LOW POPS EVERYWHERE. ANY
SHOWERS LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO BE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO AROUND 30...BUT CHANGING TO RAIN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST.
WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY SHOULD TURN MILDER IF THE GFS
PANS OUT AS A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES. ALONG WITH THE
WARMUP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASES...ESPECIALLY LATE
TUESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE ECWMF HAS ANOTHER CLIPPER WORKING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH BEFORE ANY REAL
WARMUP ENSUES...TURNING COOLER BY TUESDAY WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER.

AGAIN...SINCE WE HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE WARMER GFS...WE WILL
CARRY 30-40 POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS 50-55 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 20S...SO ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW NORTH...A WINTRY MIX
SOUTH...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 50-55 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...40S
HIGHER TERRAIN/HIGHER IF THE GFS IS TOTALLY RIGHT/BUT LOWER IF THE
ECWMF IS CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS DRIZZLE AND FOG HAVE RESULTED IN IFR OR EVEN LIFR
PERSISTING AT KPOU. CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN IFR MUCH OF THE TIME
UNTIL AROUND 12Z...WITH OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR.

AFTER 12Z...WE ARE CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC THAT CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR WITH CIGS LIFTING TO ABOUT 4000 FEET. AS EVEN MORE
DRIER ENTRAINS INTO THAT REGION...BY 18Z SHOULD JUST HAVE SOME
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES...KGFL/KALB AND KPSF ARE EXPECTED TO
BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST 5KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10KTS LATER TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE
INTO THE TEENS (NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS YET).

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TAFS INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXAMINING NOHRSC INDICATES MOST OF THE SNOW IS NOW GONE IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ABOUT THE MOHAWK RIVER SOUTHWARD. FURTHER
NORTH...SNOW WAS PATCHY BUT STILL IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY. PLENTY OF SNOW STILL COVERED MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SURROUNDING THE HUDSON VALLEY.

TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...CHILLY AND DRY WITH LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES...GENERALLY IN THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED.

THEN ON THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH 15 TO
25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. AFTERNOON RH VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND
40 PERCENT. HOWEVER...IF THE WIND WERE TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...THEY COULD DIP A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT.

CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS...WHICH
WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY. IT LOOKS AS IF EVERYONE SHOULD
END UP WITH OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL EQUIVALENT DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS
OF RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS
A FEW ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 010813
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
413 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OTHER THAN SOME EARLY MORNING CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA...EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY BUT COOL DAY
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO CENTRAL NY BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL GO
FROM MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR
REGION WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. VARIABLE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE
ORDER OF THE DAY AS SOME CLEARING AND DOWNSLOPING IN THE VALLEYS
IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. IT WILL BE A MILD AND
BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR STILL SOME
UPPER 40S ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION
REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE MOVING THROUGH THE FA
DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
FEATURING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT ONLY IS RAIN EXPECTED...BUT THE RAIN WILL BE CHANGING
TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA OVERNIGHT WITH AT
LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AS
NORTHERN JETSTREAM CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LOW AS THERE ARE SOME PRETTY GOOD
DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW WE LEANED WITH
WPC IN THIS CASE...LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE GFS MODEL.

THE LONG RANGE STARTS ON SATURDAY...AS A DEPARTING BUT DEEPENING
STORM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND INCREASINGLY WINDY
DAY WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER
TERRAIN. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE 00Z GFS INDICATED A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAD A WEAKER ONE.  FOR
NOW...WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH 30 POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
WOULD INSURE WHATEVER WOULD FALL WOULD BE SNOW. AGAIN...RIGHT
NOW...ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED A
DRY START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATED ANOTHER
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD HAVE MORE PRECIPITATION KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR BY DAY/S END. FOR NOW...KEPT EASTER SUNDAY DRY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A LEAST A
LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HAVE LOW POPS EVERYWHERE. ANY
SHOWERS LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO BE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO AROUND 30...BUT CHANGING TO RAIN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST.
WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY SHOULD TURN MILDER IF THE GFS
PANS OUT AS A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES. ALONG WITH THE
WARMUP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASES...ESPECIALLY LATE
TUESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE ECWMF HAS ANOTHER CLIPPER WORKING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH BEFORE ANY REAL
WARMUP ENSUES...TURNING COOLER BY TUESDAY WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER.

AGAIN...SINCE WE HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE WARMER GFS...WE WILL
CARRY 30-40 POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS 50-55 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 20S...SO ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW NORTH...A WINTRY MIX
SOUTH...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 50-55 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...40S
HIGHER TERRAIN/HIGHER IF THE GFS IS TOTALLY RIGHT/BUT LOWER IF THE
ECWMF IS CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS DRIZZLE AND FOG HAVE RESULTED IN IFR OR EVEN LIFR
PERSISTING AT KPOU. CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN IFR MUCH OF THE TIME
UNTIL AROUND 12Z...WITH OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR.

AFTER 12Z...WE ARE CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC THAT CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR WITH CIGS LIFTING TO ABOUT 4000 FEET. AS EVEN MORE
DRIER ENTRAINS INTO THAT REGION...BY 18Z SHOULD JUST HAVE SOME
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES...KGFL/KALB AND KPSF ARE EXPECTED TO
BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST 5KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10KTS LATER TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE
INTO THE TEENS (NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS YET).

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TAFS INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXAMINING NOHRSC INDICATES MOST OF THE SNOW IS NOW GONE IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ABOUT THE MOHAWK RIVER SOUTHWARD. FURTHER
NORTH...SNOW WAS PATCHY BUT STILL IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY. PLENTY OF SNOW STILL COVERED MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SURROUNDING THE HUDSON VALLEY.

TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...CHILLY AND DRY WITH LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES...GENERALLY IN THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED.

THEN ON THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH 15 TO
25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. AFTERNOON RH VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND
40 PERCENT. HOWEVER...IF THE WIND WERE TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...THEY COULD DIP A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT.

CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS...WHICH
WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY. IT LOOKS AS IF EVERYONE SHOULD
END UP WITH OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL EQUIVALENT DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS
OF RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS
A FEW ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/11




000
FXUS61 KALY 010813
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
413 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OTHER THAN SOME EARLY MORNING CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA...EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY BUT COOL DAY
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO CENTRAL NY BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL GO
FROM MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR
REGION WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. VARIABLE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE
ORDER OF THE DAY AS SOME CLEARING AND DOWNSLOPING IN THE VALLEYS
IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. IT WILL BE A MILD AND
BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR STILL SOME
UPPER 40S ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION
REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH FRONT NUMBER ONE MOVING THROUGH THE FA
DURING THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SECOND COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
FEATURING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. NOT ONLY IS RAIN EXPECTED...BUT THE RAIN WILL BE CHANGING
TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA OVERNIGHT WITH AT
LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AS
NORTHERN JETSTREAM CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LOW AS THERE ARE SOME PRETTY GOOD
DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW WE LEANED WITH
WPC IN THIS CASE...LEANED A LITTLE MORE WITH THE GFS MODEL.

THE LONG RANGE STARTS ON SATURDAY...AS A DEPARTING BUT DEEPENING
STORM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION. IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND INCREASINGLY WINDY
DAY WITH HIGHS 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER
TERRAIN. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE 00Z GFS INDICATED A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAD A WEAKER ONE.  FOR
NOW...WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN MOST PLACES SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH 30 POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
WOULD INSURE WHATEVER WOULD FALL WOULD BE SNOW. AGAIN...RIGHT
NOW...ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATED A
DRY START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATED ANOTHER
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD HAVE MORE PRECIPITATION KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR BY DAY/S END. FOR NOW...KEPT EASTER SUNDAY DRY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A LEAST A
LITTLE PRECIPITATION. HAVE LOW POPS EVERYWHERE. ANY
SHOWERS LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO BE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
20S TO AROUND 30...BUT CHANGING TO RAIN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST.
WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY SHOULD TURN MILDER IF THE GFS
PANS OUT AS A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES. ALONG WITH THE
WARMUP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASES...ESPECIALLY LATE
TUESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE ECWMF HAS ANOTHER CLIPPER WORKING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH BEFORE ANY REAL
WARMUP ENSUES...TURNING COOLER BY TUESDAY WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY WEATHER.

AGAIN...SINCE WE HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE WARMER GFS...WE WILL
CARRY 30-40 POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS 50-55 IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.

LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 20S...SO ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW NORTH...A WINTRY MIX
SOUTH...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 50-55 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...40S
HIGHER TERRAIN/HIGHER IF THE GFS IS TOTALLY RIGHT/BUT LOWER IF THE
ECWMF IS CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS DRIZZLE AND FOG HAVE RESULTED IN IFR OR EVEN LIFR
PERSISTING AT KPOU. CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN IFR MUCH OF THE TIME
UNTIL AROUND 12Z...WITH OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR.

AFTER 12Z...WE ARE CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC THAT CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR WITH CIGS LIFTING TO ABOUT 4000 FEET. AS EVEN MORE
DRIER ENTRAINS INTO THAT REGION...BY 18Z SHOULD JUST HAVE SOME
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES...KGFL/KALB AND KPSF ARE EXPECTED TO
BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST 5KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10KTS LATER TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE
INTO THE TEENS (NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS YET).

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TAFS INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXAMINING NOHRSC INDICATES MOST OF THE SNOW IS NOW GONE IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ABOUT THE MOHAWK RIVER SOUTHWARD. FURTHER
NORTH...SNOW WAS PATCHY BUT STILL IN THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY. PLENTY OF SNOW STILL COVERED MOST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SURROUNDING THE HUDSON VALLEY.

TODAY WILL BE SUNNY...CHILLY AND DRY WITH LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES...GENERALLY IN THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE. A NORTHWEST WIND
WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A PARTIAL RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED.

THEN ON THURSDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH 15 TO
25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. AFTERNOON RH VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND
40 PERCENT. HOWEVER...IF THE WIND WERE TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...THEY COULD DIP A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT.

CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS...WHICH
WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY. IT LOOKS AS IF EVERYONE SHOULD
END UP WITH OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL EQUIVALENT DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS
OF RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS
A FEW ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/11



000
FXUS61 KALY 010540
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
140 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SKIES WERE CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING
WAVE. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THE COMBINATION OF
WET SURFACES AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN BLACK
ICE FORMATION. WE HAVE ISSUED A SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE WAS APPROACHING SO THE
CLEARING WINDOW WILL BE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER 20S.

PREV DISC...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW TRACKING
EAST...AND WILL SCRAPE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
SOME DUSTINGS OF WET SNOW IN SOME GRASSY AREAS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS EVENING.THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER
IS GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH...AND CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD REINTRODUCE
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT NOT QUITE CALM...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. LOWS IN THE 20S
MOST AREAS...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN EXIT QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. SO MIXING POTENTIAL WITH INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND QUITE A TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST
OF THE REGION. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF BREAKING INTO A WARM
SECTOR...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND
STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S...MAYBE AROUND 60 IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPING AND
ENHANCED MIXING...AS LONG AS THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED ONSHORE
FLOW.

IF SOME AREAS SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN...SOME AREAS COULD GET
INTO THE 60S...WHILE IF THE WARMING IS DELAYED DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY. NOT MUCH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EVEN WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO NOT INDICATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS
APPROACH. BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY SHOWERS...MAYBE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS THERE MAY
BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED AND
ACTIVE PATTERN AS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REGARDING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS
MAXIMUM DYNAMICS ARE ACHIEVED THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG PIECE OF
NORTHERN STREAM PV ENERGY AND A DUAL UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH
THE FORECAST AREA BEING UNDERNEATH THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET. CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
GOING NEGATIVE-TILT...ENHANCING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TIGHTENS THE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING
TRANSITION TIMES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME AS ALTHOUGH THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK GOING NORTHEAST UP INTERSTATE 88 AND OVER INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THERE STILL REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER COMPLICATING ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION RATES...WHICH WILL
LIKELY FEATURE BURSTS OF OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT IN PLACE AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS THROWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE TERRAIN
AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE AS WELL
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TIMES.

REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH THE THINKING THAT INITIALLY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT. POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS
PLOWABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS A DUSTING TO ALMOST AN INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A
CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A BLUSTERY AND GLOOMY DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. ANOTHER SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO
MID 40S...RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY AND FROM THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S...WITH SOME LOW 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS TO UPPER 30S...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LOW CLOUDS DRIZZLE AND FOG HAVE RESULTED IN IFR OR EVEN LIFR
PERSISTING AT KPOU. CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN IFR MUCH OF THE TIME
UNTIL AROUND 12Z...WITH OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR.

AFTER 12Z...WE ARE CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC THAT CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR WITH CIGS LIFTING TO ABOUT 4000 FEET. AS EVEN MORE
DRIER ENTRAINS INTO THAT REGION...BY 18Z SHOULD JUST HAVE SOME
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES...KGFL/KALB AND KPSF ARE EXPECTED TO
BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST 5KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10KTS LATER TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE
INTO THE TEENS (NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS YET).

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TAFS INTO TONIGHT.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN
65 AND 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 010540
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
140 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SKIES WERE CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING
WAVE. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THE COMBINATION OF
WET SURFACES AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN BLACK
ICE FORMATION. WE HAVE ISSUED A SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE WAS APPROACHING SO THE
CLEARING WINDOW WILL BE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER 20S.

PREV DISC...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW TRACKING
EAST...AND WILL SCRAPE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
SOME DUSTINGS OF WET SNOW IN SOME GRASSY AREAS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS EVENING.THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER
IS GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH...AND CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD REINTRODUCE
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT NOT QUITE CALM...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. LOWS IN THE 20S
MOST AREAS...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN EXIT QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. SO MIXING POTENTIAL WITH INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND QUITE A TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST
OF THE REGION. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF BREAKING INTO A WARM
SECTOR...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND
STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S...MAYBE AROUND 60 IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPING AND
ENHANCED MIXING...AS LONG AS THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED ONSHORE
FLOW.

IF SOME AREAS SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN...SOME AREAS COULD GET
INTO THE 60S...WHILE IF THE WARMING IS DELAYED DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY. NOT MUCH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EVEN WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO NOT INDICATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS
APPROACH. BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY SHOWERS...MAYBE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS THERE MAY
BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED AND
ACTIVE PATTERN AS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REGARDING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS
MAXIMUM DYNAMICS ARE ACHIEVED THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG PIECE OF
NORTHERN STREAM PV ENERGY AND A DUAL UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH
THE FORECAST AREA BEING UNDERNEATH THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET. CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
GOING NEGATIVE-TILT...ENHANCING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TIGHTENS THE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING
TRANSITION TIMES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME AS ALTHOUGH THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK GOING NORTHEAST UP INTERSTATE 88 AND OVER INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THERE STILL REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER COMPLICATING ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION RATES...WHICH WILL
LIKELY FEATURE BURSTS OF OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT IN PLACE AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS THROWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE TERRAIN
AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE AS WELL
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TIMES.

REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH THE THINKING THAT INITIALLY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT. POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS
PLOWABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS A DUSTING TO ALMOST AN INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A
CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A BLUSTERY AND GLOOMY DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. ANOTHER SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO
MID 40S...RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY AND FROM THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S...WITH SOME LOW 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS TO UPPER 30S...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LOW CLOUDS DRIZZLE AND FOG HAVE RESULTED IN IFR OR EVEN LIFR
PERSISTING AT KPOU. CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN IFR MUCH OF THE TIME
UNTIL AROUND 12Z...WITH OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR.

AFTER 12Z...WE ARE CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC THAT CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR WITH CIGS LIFTING TO ABOUT 4000 FEET. AS EVEN MORE
DRIER ENTRAINS INTO THAT REGION...BY 18Z SHOULD JUST HAVE SOME
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES...KGFL/KALB AND KPSF ARE EXPECTED TO
BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST 5KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10KTS LATER TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE
INTO THE TEENS (NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS YET).

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TAFS INTO TONIGHT.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN
65 AND 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 010540
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
140 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SKIES WERE CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING
WAVE. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THE COMBINATION OF
WET SURFACES AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN BLACK
ICE FORMATION. WE HAVE ISSUED A SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE WAS APPROACHING SO THE
CLEARING WINDOW WILL BE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER 20S.

PREV DISC...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW TRACKING
EAST...AND WILL SCRAPE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
SOME DUSTINGS OF WET SNOW IN SOME GRASSY AREAS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS EVENING.THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER
IS GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH...AND CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD REINTRODUCE
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT NOT QUITE CALM...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. LOWS IN THE 20S
MOST AREAS...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN EXIT QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. SO MIXING POTENTIAL WITH INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND QUITE A TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST
OF THE REGION. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF BREAKING INTO A WARM
SECTOR...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND
STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S...MAYBE AROUND 60 IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPING AND
ENHANCED MIXING...AS LONG AS THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED ONSHORE
FLOW.

IF SOME AREAS SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN...SOME AREAS COULD GET
INTO THE 60S...WHILE IF THE WARMING IS DELAYED DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY. NOT MUCH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EVEN WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO NOT INDICATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS
APPROACH. BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY SHOWERS...MAYBE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS THERE MAY
BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED AND
ACTIVE PATTERN AS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REGARDING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS
MAXIMUM DYNAMICS ARE ACHIEVED THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG PIECE OF
NORTHERN STREAM PV ENERGY AND A DUAL UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH
THE FORECAST AREA BEING UNDERNEATH THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET. CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
GOING NEGATIVE-TILT...ENHANCING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TIGHTENS THE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING
TRANSITION TIMES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME AS ALTHOUGH THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK GOING NORTHEAST UP INTERSTATE 88 AND OVER INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THERE STILL REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER COMPLICATING ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION RATES...WHICH WILL
LIKELY FEATURE BURSTS OF OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT IN PLACE AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS THROWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE TERRAIN
AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE AS WELL
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TIMES.

REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH THE THINKING THAT INITIALLY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT. POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS
PLOWABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS A DUSTING TO ALMOST AN INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A
CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A BLUSTERY AND GLOOMY DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. ANOTHER SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO
MID 40S...RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY AND FROM THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S...WITH SOME LOW 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS TO UPPER 30S...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LOW CLOUDS DRIZZLE AND FOG HAVE RESULTED IN IFR OR EVEN LIFR
PERSISTING AT KPOU. CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN IFR MUCH OF THE TIME
UNTIL AROUND 12Z...WITH OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR.

AFTER 12Z...WE ARE CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC THAT CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR WITH CIGS LIFTING TO ABOUT 4000 FEET. AS EVEN MORE
DRIER ENTRAINS INTO THAT REGION...BY 18Z SHOULD JUST HAVE SOME
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES...KGFL/KALB AND KPSF ARE EXPECTED TO
BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH FEW IF ANY SENSIBLE CLOUDS AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST 5KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10KTS LATER TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE
INTO THE TEENS (NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS YET).

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THE TAFS INTO TONIGHT.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN
65 AND 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 010527
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
127 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS TREND UNSETTLED BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW.
A WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
MILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE COOLING SHARPLY BY THE COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...OTHER THAN LOADING IN THE CURRENT
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS...GOING
FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
NO PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH THEN SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
DRY WEATHER. MODEL BLENDED 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE A TAD COOLER
TOMORROW AND APPEAR REASONABLE PER HYSPLIT 500M BACK TRAJECTORY
ANALYSIS. DID LEAN ON THE MILDER END OF GUIDANCE THOUGH (MID TO
UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS) GIVEN DEEPER PBL MIXING AND RECENT COOL
BIAS OF MOS OUTPUT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH SLIDES EAST WITH A
LIGHT RETURN FLOW AND A FAIRLY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT
ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION. THUS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
LATER AT NIGHT WITH LOWS 3 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT, BEING
ACHIEVED DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS
ARRIVE. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY/LIGHT SHSN ACROSS
THE SLV/FAR NRN NY LATE, BUT VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.

BY THURSDAY WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TRENDING QUITE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AS PARENT LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTH THROUGH THE JAMES BAY REGION. AGAIN, I CAN`T
RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT WITH BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING
MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER AND A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
TO ITS SOUTH QPF WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST WITH ONLY NOMINAL CHANCE POPS
OFFERED. WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPERATURES
RESPOND IN KIND WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S IN EASTERN
VERMONT, AND GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST. INDEED, MEAN 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD
SUGGEST EVEN MILDER READINGS UNDER A FULLY-MIXED/SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER,
PLENTY OF LINGERING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.

THEN CONTINUED QUITE MILD THURSDAY NIGHT AS JAMES BAY LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTHEAST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL LATE
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT IN GENERAL READINGS SHOULD HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. A
DECENT PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE FEED (PWATS TO 1.25 INCHES) AND FAIRLY
ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY,
ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER (60/70%) POPS FOR A PERIOD OF STEADIER
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
FOR MOST SPOTS. THIS WILL BE OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IN
SEVERAL MONTHS, A SURE SIGN THAT THE SLOW, STUMBLING PROGRESSION
INTO SPRING HAS FINALLY BEGUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AND BRINGING PRETTY LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES,
WINDS, AND PRECIPITATION TYPES. HONESTLY, THERE ARE SOME LARGE
FORECAST BUST POTENTIALS AT MANY POINTS OVER THE 5 DAY PERIOD, SO
DON`T CONSIDER ANY ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST TO BE A "DONE DEAL",
THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE CONSIDERABLE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE COMING
DAYS. HERE ARE SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS...

FRIDAY: WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, PROBABLY ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEPARATING VERY WARM AIR TO THE SOUTH AND MILD
AIR TO THE NORTH. SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL
SEE ON FRIDAY - THE GFS KEEPS IT CLOUDY, WHILE THE EURO CLEARS IT
OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE CLOUDIER AND COOLER
GFS, IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 50S AND
PERHAPS MAKE A RUN AT SOME LOWER 60S. THE EURO WOULD SUGGEST
POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 DEGREES. STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS AT THIS
POINT. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE LEVEL FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION, CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK.

FRIDAY NIGHT: A MORE POTENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT, AND BECOME WIDESPREAD.
SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF INTENSIFYING, THUS
TIGHTENING THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. LOOKS TO BE A RAIN SOUTH AND
A RAIN TO SNOW SITUATION IN THE NORTH. EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE
CHANGEOVERS WILL OCCUR WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION AND
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. STRONG FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM AS WELL, SO
A BURST OF MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIPITATION LATE NIGHT IS QUITE
LIKELY. WILL IT BE ALL SNOW? OR ALL RAIN? OR A MIX? THOSE ARE THE
QUESTIONS. AT THIS POINT, TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY TO PINPOINT
SNOWFALL TOTALS, BUT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
`DACKS.

SATURDAY: SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY PUSHES EAST AS IT INTENSIFIES.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMES IN, SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL END AS SNOW. COULD BE SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT AND NEW YORK.
GRADIENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP, SO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 40MPH RANGE, IF
THE STORM DEEPENS AS MUCH AS THE GFS INDICATES. THE ECMWF IS
WEAKER, BUT STILL A SIMILAR SITUATION.

SUNDAY: QUIETER THAN SATURDAY, AND ALSO COLD. FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW A TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH, AND ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SUNSHINE, WE`LL HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN ISOLATED FLURRIES/BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY REGIONS, 20S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
COLD IT WILL GET SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK HIGH WILL BE TO THE NORTH,
HOWEVER ANOTHER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH,
AND THIS COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME CLOUDS. MODELS WERE ALL OVER
THE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES -- RANGING FROM ROUGHLY 0 TO 20
DEGREES. STAYED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS AT THIS POINT.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: PROBABLY DRY FOR MONDAY, BUT FLOW ALOFT TURNS
SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STARTS TO GET GOING SO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND ULTIMATELY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.


LOOKING BEYOND, THERE ARE SOME HINTS FOR MID-WEEK THAT WE`LL HAVE
A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN AND RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES. WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SNOWMELT, ICE JAMS, AND SOME FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, A QUIET AVIATION PERIOD WITH VFR SKC CONDITIONS (SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12KFT AGL). WINDS NORTH 4-8 KTS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 010527
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
127 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS TREND UNSETTLED BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW.
A WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
MILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE COOLING SHARPLY BY THE COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...OTHER THAN LOADING IN THE CURRENT
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS...GOING
FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
NO PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH THEN SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
DRY WEATHER. MODEL BLENDED 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE A TAD COOLER
TOMORROW AND APPEAR REASONABLE PER HYSPLIT 500M BACK TRAJECTORY
ANALYSIS. DID LEAN ON THE MILDER END OF GUIDANCE THOUGH (MID TO
UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS) GIVEN DEEPER PBL MIXING AND RECENT COOL
BIAS OF MOS OUTPUT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH SLIDES EAST WITH A
LIGHT RETURN FLOW AND A FAIRLY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT
ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION. THUS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
LATER AT NIGHT WITH LOWS 3 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT, BEING
ACHIEVED DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS
ARRIVE. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY/LIGHT SHSN ACROSS
THE SLV/FAR NRN NY LATE, BUT VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.

BY THURSDAY WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TRENDING QUITE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AS PARENT LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTH THROUGH THE JAMES BAY REGION. AGAIN, I CAN`T
RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT WITH BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING
MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER AND A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
TO ITS SOUTH QPF WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST WITH ONLY NOMINAL CHANCE POPS
OFFERED. WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPERATURES
RESPOND IN KIND WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S IN EASTERN
VERMONT, AND GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST. INDEED, MEAN 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD
SUGGEST EVEN MILDER READINGS UNDER A FULLY-MIXED/SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER,
PLENTY OF LINGERING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.

THEN CONTINUED QUITE MILD THURSDAY NIGHT AS JAMES BAY LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTHEAST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL LATE
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT IN GENERAL READINGS SHOULD HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. A
DECENT PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE FEED (PWATS TO 1.25 INCHES) AND FAIRLY
ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY,
ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER (60/70%) POPS FOR A PERIOD OF STEADIER
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
FOR MOST SPOTS. THIS WILL BE OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IN
SEVERAL MONTHS, A SURE SIGN THAT THE SLOW, STUMBLING PROGRESSION
INTO SPRING HAS FINALLY BEGUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AND BRINGING PRETTY LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES,
WINDS, AND PRECIPITATION TYPES. HONESTLY, THERE ARE SOME LARGE
FORECAST BUST POTENTIALS AT MANY POINTS OVER THE 5 DAY PERIOD, SO
DON`T CONSIDER ANY ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST TO BE A "DONE DEAL",
THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE CONSIDERABLE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE COMING
DAYS. HERE ARE SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS...

FRIDAY: WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, PROBABLY ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEPARATING VERY WARM AIR TO THE SOUTH AND MILD
AIR TO THE NORTH. SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL
SEE ON FRIDAY - THE GFS KEEPS IT CLOUDY, WHILE THE EURO CLEARS IT
OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE CLOUDIER AND COOLER
GFS, IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 50S AND
PERHAPS MAKE A RUN AT SOME LOWER 60S. THE EURO WOULD SUGGEST
POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 DEGREES. STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS AT THIS
POINT. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE LEVEL FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION, CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK.

FRIDAY NIGHT: A MORE POTENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT, AND BECOME WIDESPREAD.
SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF INTENSIFYING, THUS
TIGHTENING THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. LOOKS TO BE A RAIN SOUTH AND
A RAIN TO SNOW SITUATION IN THE NORTH. EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE
CHANGEOVERS WILL OCCUR WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION AND
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. STRONG FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM AS WELL, SO
A BURST OF MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIPITATION LATE NIGHT IS QUITE
LIKELY. WILL IT BE ALL SNOW? OR ALL RAIN? OR A MIX? THOSE ARE THE
QUESTIONS. AT THIS POINT, TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY TO PINPOINT
SNOWFALL TOTALS, BUT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
`DACKS.

SATURDAY: SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY PUSHES EAST AS IT INTENSIFIES.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMES IN, SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL END AS SNOW. COULD BE SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT AND NEW YORK.
GRADIENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP, SO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 40MPH RANGE, IF
THE STORM DEEPENS AS MUCH AS THE GFS INDICATES. THE ECMWF IS
WEAKER, BUT STILL A SIMILAR SITUATION.

SUNDAY: QUIETER THAN SATURDAY, AND ALSO COLD. FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW A TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH, AND ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SUNSHINE, WE`LL HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN ISOLATED FLURRIES/BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY REGIONS, 20S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
COLD IT WILL GET SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK HIGH WILL BE TO THE NORTH,
HOWEVER ANOTHER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH,
AND THIS COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME CLOUDS. MODELS WERE ALL OVER
THE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES -- RANGING FROM ROUGHLY 0 TO 20
DEGREES. STAYED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS AT THIS POINT.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: PROBABLY DRY FOR MONDAY, BUT FLOW ALOFT TURNS
SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STARTS TO GET GOING SO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND ULTIMATELY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.


LOOKING BEYOND, THERE ARE SOME HINTS FOR MID-WEEK THAT WE`LL HAVE
A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN AND RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES. WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SNOWMELT, ICE JAMS, AND SOME FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, A QUIET AVIATION PERIOD WITH VFR SKC CONDITIONS (SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12KFT AGL). WINDS NORTH 4-8 KTS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 010527
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
127 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS TREND UNSETTLED BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW.
A WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
MILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE COOLING SHARPLY BY THE COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...OTHER THAN LOADING IN THE CURRENT
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS...GOING
FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
NO PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH THEN SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
DRY WEATHER. MODEL BLENDED 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE A TAD COOLER
TOMORROW AND APPEAR REASONABLE PER HYSPLIT 500M BACK TRAJECTORY
ANALYSIS. DID LEAN ON THE MILDER END OF GUIDANCE THOUGH (MID TO
UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS) GIVEN DEEPER PBL MIXING AND RECENT COOL
BIAS OF MOS OUTPUT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH SLIDES EAST WITH A
LIGHT RETURN FLOW AND A FAIRLY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT
ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION. THUS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
LATER AT NIGHT WITH LOWS 3 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT, BEING
ACHIEVED DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS
ARRIVE. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY/LIGHT SHSN ACROSS
THE SLV/FAR NRN NY LATE, BUT VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.

BY THURSDAY WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TRENDING QUITE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AS PARENT LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTH THROUGH THE JAMES BAY REGION. AGAIN, I CAN`T
RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT WITH BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING
MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER AND A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
TO ITS SOUTH QPF WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST WITH ONLY NOMINAL CHANCE POPS
OFFERED. WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPERATURES
RESPOND IN KIND WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S IN EASTERN
VERMONT, AND GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST. INDEED, MEAN 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD
SUGGEST EVEN MILDER READINGS UNDER A FULLY-MIXED/SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER,
PLENTY OF LINGERING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.

THEN CONTINUED QUITE MILD THURSDAY NIGHT AS JAMES BAY LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTHEAST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL LATE
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT IN GENERAL READINGS SHOULD HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. A
DECENT PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE FEED (PWATS TO 1.25 INCHES) AND FAIRLY
ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY,
ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER (60/70%) POPS FOR A PERIOD OF STEADIER
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
FOR MOST SPOTS. THIS WILL BE OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IN
SEVERAL MONTHS, A SURE SIGN THAT THE SLOW, STUMBLING PROGRESSION
INTO SPRING HAS FINALLY BEGUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AND BRINGING PRETTY LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES,
WINDS, AND PRECIPITATION TYPES. HONESTLY, THERE ARE SOME LARGE
FORECAST BUST POTENTIALS AT MANY POINTS OVER THE 5 DAY PERIOD, SO
DON`T CONSIDER ANY ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST TO BE A "DONE DEAL",
THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE CONSIDERABLE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE COMING
DAYS. HERE ARE SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS...

FRIDAY: WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, PROBABLY ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEPARATING VERY WARM AIR TO THE SOUTH AND MILD
AIR TO THE NORTH. SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL
SEE ON FRIDAY - THE GFS KEEPS IT CLOUDY, WHILE THE EURO CLEARS IT
OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE CLOUDIER AND COOLER
GFS, IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 50S AND
PERHAPS MAKE A RUN AT SOME LOWER 60S. THE EURO WOULD SUGGEST
POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 DEGREES. STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS AT THIS
POINT. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE LEVEL FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION, CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK.

FRIDAY NIGHT: A MORE POTENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT, AND BECOME WIDESPREAD.
SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF INTENSIFYING, THUS
TIGHTENING THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. LOOKS TO BE A RAIN SOUTH AND
A RAIN TO SNOW SITUATION IN THE NORTH. EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE
CHANGEOVERS WILL OCCUR WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION AND
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. STRONG FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM AS WELL, SO
A BURST OF MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIPITATION LATE NIGHT IS QUITE
LIKELY. WILL IT BE ALL SNOW? OR ALL RAIN? OR A MIX? THOSE ARE THE
QUESTIONS. AT THIS POINT, TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY TO PINPOINT
SNOWFALL TOTALS, BUT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
`DACKS.

SATURDAY: SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY PUSHES EAST AS IT INTENSIFIES.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMES IN, SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL END AS SNOW. COULD BE SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT AND NEW YORK.
GRADIENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP, SO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 40MPH RANGE, IF
THE STORM DEEPENS AS MUCH AS THE GFS INDICATES. THE ECMWF IS
WEAKER, BUT STILL A SIMILAR SITUATION.

SUNDAY: QUIETER THAN SATURDAY, AND ALSO COLD. FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW A TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH, AND ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SUNSHINE, WE`LL HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN ISOLATED FLURRIES/BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY REGIONS, 20S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
COLD IT WILL GET SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK HIGH WILL BE TO THE NORTH,
HOWEVER ANOTHER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH,
AND THIS COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME CLOUDS. MODELS WERE ALL OVER
THE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES -- RANGING FROM ROUGHLY 0 TO 20
DEGREES. STAYED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS AT THIS POINT.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: PROBABLY DRY FOR MONDAY, BUT FLOW ALOFT TURNS
SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STARTS TO GET GOING SO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND ULTIMATELY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.


LOOKING BEYOND, THERE ARE SOME HINTS FOR MID-WEEK THAT WE`LL HAVE
A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN AND RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES. WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SNOWMELT, ICE JAMS, AND SOME FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, A QUIET AVIATION PERIOD WITH VFR SKC CONDITIONS (SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12KFT AGL). WINDS NORTH 4-8 KTS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 010527
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
127 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS TREND UNSETTLED BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW.
A WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
MILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE COOLING SHARPLY BY THE COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...OTHER THAN LOADING IN THE CURRENT
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS...GOING
FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
NO PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH THEN SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
DRY WEATHER. MODEL BLENDED 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE A TAD COOLER
TOMORROW AND APPEAR REASONABLE PER HYSPLIT 500M BACK TRAJECTORY
ANALYSIS. DID LEAN ON THE MILDER END OF GUIDANCE THOUGH (MID TO
UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS) GIVEN DEEPER PBL MIXING AND RECENT COOL
BIAS OF MOS OUTPUT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH SLIDES EAST WITH A
LIGHT RETURN FLOW AND A FAIRLY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT
ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION. THUS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
LATER AT NIGHT WITH LOWS 3 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT, BEING
ACHIEVED DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS
ARRIVE. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY/LIGHT SHSN ACROSS
THE SLV/FAR NRN NY LATE, BUT VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.

BY THURSDAY WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TRENDING QUITE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AS PARENT LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTH THROUGH THE JAMES BAY REGION. AGAIN, I CAN`T
RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT WITH BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING
MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER AND A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
TO ITS SOUTH QPF WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST WITH ONLY NOMINAL CHANCE POPS
OFFERED. WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPERATURES
RESPOND IN KIND WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S IN EASTERN
VERMONT, AND GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST. INDEED, MEAN 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD
SUGGEST EVEN MILDER READINGS UNDER A FULLY-MIXED/SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER,
PLENTY OF LINGERING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.

THEN CONTINUED QUITE MILD THURSDAY NIGHT AS JAMES BAY LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTHEAST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL LATE
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT IN GENERAL READINGS SHOULD HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. A
DECENT PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE FEED (PWATS TO 1.25 INCHES) AND FAIRLY
ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY,
ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER (60/70%) POPS FOR A PERIOD OF STEADIER
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
FOR MOST SPOTS. THIS WILL BE OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IN
SEVERAL MONTHS, A SURE SIGN THAT THE SLOW, STUMBLING PROGRESSION
INTO SPRING HAS FINALLY BEGUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AND BRINGING PRETTY LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES,
WINDS, AND PRECIPITATION TYPES. HONESTLY, THERE ARE SOME LARGE
FORECAST BUST POTENTIALS AT MANY POINTS OVER THE 5 DAY PERIOD, SO
DON`T CONSIDER ANY ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST TO BE A "DONE DEAL",
THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE CONSIDERABLE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE COMING
DAYS. HERE ARE SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS...

FRIDAY: WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, PROBABLY ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEPARATING VERY WARM AIR TO THE SOUTH AND MILD
AIR TO THE NORTH. SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL
SEE ON FRIDAY - THE GFS KEEPS IT CLOUDY, WHILE THE EURO CLEARS IT
OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE CLOUDIER AND COOLER
GFS, IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 50S AND
PERHAPS MAKE A RUN AT SOME LOWER 60S. THE EURO WOULD SUGGEST
POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 DEGREES. STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS AT THIS
POINT. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE LEVEL FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION, CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK.

FRIDAY NIGHT: A MORE POTENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT, AND BECOME WIDESPREAD.
SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF INTENSIFYING, THUS
TIGHTENING THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. LOOKS TO BE A RAIN SOUTH AND
A RAIN TO SNOW SITUATION IN THE NORTH. EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE
CHANGEOVERS WILL OCCUR WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION AND
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. STRONG FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM AS WELL, SO
A BURST OF MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIPITATION LATE NIGHT IS QUITE
LIKELY. WILL IT BE ALL SNOW? OR ALL RAIN? OR A MIX? THOSE ARE THE
QUESTIONS. AT THIS POINT, TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY TO PINPOINT
SNOWFALL TOTALS, BUT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
`DACKS.

SATURDAY: SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY PUSHES EAST AS IT INTENSIFIES.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMES IN, SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL END AS SNOW. COULD BE SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT AND NEW YORK.
GRADIENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP, SO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 40MPH RANGE, IF
THE STORM DEEPENS AS MUCH AS THE GFS INDICATES. THE ECMWF IS
WEAKER, BUT STILL A SIMILAR SITUATION.

SUNDAY: QUIETER THAN SATURDAY, AND ALSO COLD. FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW A TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH, AND ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SUNSHINE, WE`LL HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN ISOLATED FLURRIES/BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY REGIONS, 20S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
COLD IT WILL GET SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK HIGH WILL BE TO THE NORTH,
HOWEVER ANOTHER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH,
AND THIS COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME CLOUDS. MODELS WERE ALL OVER
THE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES -- RANGING FROM ROUGHLY 0 TO 20
DEGREES. STAYED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS AT THIS POINT.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: PROBABLY DRY FOR MONDAY, BUT FLOW ALOFT TURNS
SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STARTS TO GET GOING SO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND ULTIMATELY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.


LOOKING BEYOND, THERE ARE SOME HINTS FOR MID-WEEK THAT WE`LL HAVE
A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN AND RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES. WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SNOWMELT, ICE JAMS, AND SOME FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, A QUIET AVIATION PERIOD WITH VFR SKC CONDITIONS (SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12KFT AGL). WINDS NORTH 4-8 KTS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 010527
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
127 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS TREND UNSETTLED BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW.
A WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
MILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE COOLING SHARPLY BY THE COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...OTHER THAN LOADING IN THE CURRENT
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS...GOING
FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
NO PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH THEN SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
DRY WEATHER. MODEL BLENDED 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE A TAD COOLER
TOMORROW AND APPEAR REASONABLE PER HYSPLIT 500M BACK TRAJECTORY
ANALYSIS. DID LEAN ON THE MILDER END OF GUIDANCE THOUGH (MID TO
UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS) GIVEN DEEPER PBL MIXING AND RECENT COOL
BIAS OF MOS OUTPUT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH SLIDES EAST WITH A
LIGHT RETURN FLOW AND A FAIRLY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT
ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION. THUS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
LATER AT NIGHT WITH LOWS 3 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT, BEING
ACHIEVED DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS
ARRIVE. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY/LIGHT SHSN ACROSS
THE SLV/FAR NRN NY LATE, BUT VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.

BY THURSDAY WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TRENDING QUITE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AS PARENT LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTH THROUGH THE JAMES BAY REGION. AGAIN, I CAN`T
RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT WITH BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING
MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER AND A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
TO ITS SOUTH QPF WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST WITH ONLY NOMINAL CHANCE POPS
OFFERED. WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPERATURES
RESPOND IN KIND WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S IN EASTERN
VERMONT, AND GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST. INDEED, MEAN 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD
SUGGEST EVEN MILDER READINGS UNDER A FULLY-MIXED/SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER,
PLENTY OF LINGERING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.

THEN CONTINUED QUITE MILD THURSDAY NIGHT AS JAMES BAY LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTHEAST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL LATE
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT IN GENERAL READINGS SHOULD HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. A
DECENT PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE FEED (PWATS TO 1.25 INCHES) AND FAIRLY
ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY,
ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER (60/70%) POPS FOR A PERIOD OF STEADIER
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
FOR MOST SPOTS. THIS WILL BE OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IN
SEVERAL MONTHS, A SURE SIGN THAT THE SLOW, STUMBLING PROGRESSION
INTO SPRING HAS FINALLY BEGUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AND BRINGING PRETTY LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES,
WINDS, AND PRECIPITATION TYPES. HONESTLY, THERE ARE SOME LARGE
FORECAST BUST POTENTIALS AT MANY POINTS OVER THE 5 DAY PERIOD, SO
DON`T CONSIDER ANY ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST TO BE A "DONE DEAL",
THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE CONSIDERABLE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE COMING
DAYS. HERE ARE SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS...

FRIDAY: WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, PROBABLY ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEPARATING VERY WARM AIR TO THE SOUTH AND MILD
AIR TO THE NORTH. SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL
SEE ON FRIDAY - THE GFS KEEPS IT CLOUDY, WHILE THE EURO CLEARS IT
OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE CLOUDIER AND COOLER
GFS, IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 50S AND
PERHAPS MAKE A RUN AT SOME LOWER 60S. THE EURO WOULD SUGGEST
POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 DEGREES. STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS AT THIS
POINT. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE LEVEL FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION, CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK.

FRIDAY NIGHT: A MORE POTENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT, AND BECOME WIDESPREAD.
SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF INTENSIFYING, THUS
TIGHTENING THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. LOOKS TO BE A RAIN SOUTH AND
A RAIN TO SNOW SITUATION IN THE NORTH. EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE
CHANGEOVERS WILL OCCUR WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION AND
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. STRONG FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM AS WELL, SO
A BURST OF MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIPITATION LATE NIGHT IS QUITE
LIKELY. WILL IT BE ALL SNOW? OR ALL RAIN? OR A MIX? THOSE ARE THE
QUESTIONS. AT THIS POINT, TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY TO PINPOINT
SNOWFALL TOTALS, BUT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
`DACKS.

SATURDAY: SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY PUSHES EAST AS IT INTENSIFIES.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMES IN, SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL END AS SNOW. COULD BE SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT AND NEW YORK.
GRADIENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP, SO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 40MPH RANGE, IF
THE STORM DEEPENS AS MUCH AS THE GFS INDICATES. THE ECMWF IS
WEAKER, BUT STILL A SIMILAR SITUATION.

SUNDAY: QUIETER THAN SATURDAY, AND ALSO COLD. FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW A TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH, AND ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SUNSHINE, WE`LL HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN ISOLATED FLURRIES/BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY REGIONS, 20S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
COLD IT WILL GET SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK HIGH WILL BE TO THE NORTH,
HOWEVER ANOTHER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH,
AND THIS COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME CLOUDS. MODELS WERE ALL OVER
THE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES -- RANGING FROM ROUGHLY 0 TO 20
DEGREES. STAYED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS AT THIS POINT.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: PROBABLY DRY FOR MONDAY, BUT FLOW ALOFT TURNS
SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STARTS TO GET GOING SO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND ULTIMATELY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.


LOOKING BEYOND, THERE ARE SOME HINTS FOR MID-WEEK THAT WE`LL HAVE
A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN AND RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES. WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SNOWMELT, ICE JAMS, AND SOME FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, A QUIET AVIATION PERIOD WITH VFR SKC CONDITIONS (SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12KFT AGL). WINDS NORTH 4-8 KTS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 010527
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
127 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS TREND UNSETTLED BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW.
A WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
MILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE COOLING SHARPLY BY THE COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...OTHER THAN LOADING IN THE CURRENT
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS...GOING
FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
NO PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH THEN SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
DRY WEATHER. MODEL BLENDED 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE A TAD COOLER
TOMORROW AND APPEAR REASONABLE PER HYSPLIT 500M BACK TRAJECTORY
ANALYSIS. DID LEAN ON THE MILDER END OF GUIDANCE THOUGH (MID TO
UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS) GIVEN DEEPER PBL MIXING AND RECENT COOL
BIAS OF MOS OUTPUT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH SLIDES EAST WITH A
LIGHT RETURN FLOW AND A FAIRLY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT
ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION. THUS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
LATER AT NIGHT WITH LOWS 3 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT, BEING
ACHIEVED DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS
ARRIVE. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY/LIGHT SHSN ACROSS
THE SLV/FAR NRN NY LATE, BUT VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.

BY THURSDAY WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TRENDING QUITE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AS PARENT LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTH THROUGH THE JAMES BAY REGION. AGAIN, I CAN`T
RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT WITH BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING
MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER AND A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
TO ITS SOUTH QPF WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST WITH ONLY NOMINAL CHANCE POPS
OFFERED. WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPERATURES
RESPOND IN KIND WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S IN EASTERN
VERMONT, AND GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST. INDEED, MEAN 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD
SUGGEST EVEN MILDER READINGS UNDER A FULLY-MIXED/SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER,
PLENTY OF LINGERING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.

THEN CONTINUED QUITE MILD THURSDAY NIGHT AS JAMES BAY LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTHEAST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL LATE
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT IN GENERAL READINGS SHOULD HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. A
DECENT PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE FEED (PWATS TO 1.25 INCHES) AND FAIRLY
ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY,
ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER (60/70%) POPS FOR A PERIOD OF STEADIER
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
FOR MOST SPOTS. THIS WILL BE OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IN
SEVERAL MONTHS, A SURE SIGN THAT THE SLOW, STUMBLING PROGRESSION
INTO SPRING HAS FINALLY BEGUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AND BRINGING PRETTY LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES,
WINDS, AND PRECIPITATION TYPES. HONESTLY, THERE ARE SOME LARGE
FORECAST BUST POTENTIALS AT MANY POINTS OVER THE 5 DAY PERIOD, SO
DON`T CONSIDER ANY ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST TO BE A "DONE DEAL",
THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE CONSIDERABLE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE COMING
DAYS. HERE ARE SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS...

FRIDAY: WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, PROBABLY ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEPARATING VERY WARM AIR TO THE SOUTH AND MILD
AIR TO THE NORTH. SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL
SEE ON FRIDAY - THE GFS KEEPS IT CLOUDY, WHILE THE EURO CLEARS IT
OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE CLOUDIER AND COOLER
GFS, IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 50S AND
PERHAPS MAKE A RUN AT SOME LOWER 60S. THE EURO WOULD SUGGEST
POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 DEGREES. STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS AT THIS
POINT. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE LEVEL FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION, CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK.

FRIDAY NIGHT: A MORE POTENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT, AND BECOME WIDESPREAD.
SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF INTENSIFYING, THUS
TIGHTENING THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. LOOKS TO BE A RAIN SOUTH AND
A RAIN TO SNOW SITUATION IN THE NORTH. EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE
CHANGEOVERS WILL OCCUR WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION AND
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. STRONG FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM AS WELL, SO
A BURST OF MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIPITATION LATE NIGHT IS QUITE
LIKELY. WILL IT BE ALL SNOW? OR ALL RAIN? OR A MIX? THOSE ARE THE
QUESTIONS. AT THIS POINT, TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY TO PINPOINT
SNOWFALL TOTALS, BUT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
`DACKS.

SATURDAY: SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY PUSHES EAST AS IT INTENSIFIES.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMES IN, SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL END AS SNOW. COULD BE SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT AND NEW YORK.
GRADIENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP, SO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 40MPH RANGE, IF
THE STORM DEEPENS AS MUCH AS THE GFS INDICATES. THE ECMWF IS
WEAKER, BUT STILL A SIMILAR SITUATION.

SUNDAY: QUIETER THAN SATURDAY, AND ALSO COLD. FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW A TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH, AND ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SUNSHINE, WE`LL HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN ISOLATED FLURRIES/BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY REGIONS, 20S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
COLD IT WILL GET SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK HIGH WILL BE TO THE NORTH,
HOWEVER ANOTHER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH,
AND THIS COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME CLOUDS. MODELS WERE ALL OVER
THE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES -- RANGING FROM ROUGHLY 0 TO 20
DEGREES. STAYED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS AT THIS POINT.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: PROBABLY DRY FOR MONDAY, BUT FLOW ALOFT TURNS
SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STARTS TO GET GOING SO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND ULTIMATELY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.


LOOKING BEYOND, THERE ARE SOME HINTS FOR MID-WEEK THAT WE`LL HAVE
A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN AND RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES. WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SNOWMELT, ICE JAMS, AND SOME FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, A QUIET AVIATION PERIOD WITH VFR SKC CONDITIONS (SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12KFT AGL). WINDS NORTH 4-8 KTS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010453
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1253 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS TREND UNSETTLED BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW.
A WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
MILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE COOLING SHARPLY BY THE COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1019 PM EDT TUESDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
ONLY CHANGES WITH LATEST UPDATE WERE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. THIS RESULTED IN LOWERING OVERNIGHT MINS
A DEGREE OR TWO MOST AREAS. OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS...SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES. COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. STILL
LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S...WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN
NORMALLY COLDER PORTIONS OF ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH THEN SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
DRY WEATHER. MODEL BLENDED 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE A TAD COOLER
TOMORROW AND APPEAR REASONABLE PER HYSPLIT 500M BACK TRAJECTORY
ANALYSIS. DID LEAN ON THE MILDER END OF GUIDANCE THOUGH (MID TO
UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS) GIVEN DEEPER PBL MIXING AND RECENT COOL
BIAS OF MOS OUTPUT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH SLIDES EAST WITH A
LIGHT RETURN FLOW AND A FAIRLY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT
ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION. THUS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
LATER AT NIGHT WITH LOWS 3 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT, BEING
ACHIEVED DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS
ARRIVE. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY/LIGHT SHSN ACROSS
THE SLV/FAR NRN NY LATE, BUT VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.

BY THURSDAY WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TRENDING QUITE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AS PARENT LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTH THROUGH THE JAMES BAY REGION. AGAIN, I CAN`T
RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT WITH BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING
MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER AND A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
TO ITS SOUTH QPF WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST WITH ONLY NOMINAL CHANCE POPS
OFFERED. WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPERATURES
RESPOND IN KIND WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S IN EASTERN
VERMONT, AND GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST. INDEED, MEAN 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD
SUGGEST EVEN MILDER READINGS UNDER A FULLY-MIXED/SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER,
PLENTY OF LINGERING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.

THEN CONTINUED QUITE MILD THURSDAY NIGHT AS JAMES BAY LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTHEAST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL LATE
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT IN GENERAL READINGS SHOULD HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. A
DECENT PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE FEED (PWATS TO 1.25 INCHES) AND FAIRLY
ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY,
ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER (60/70%) POPS FOR A PERIOD OF STEADIER
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
FOR MOST SPOTS. THIS WILL BE OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IN
SEVERAL MONTHS, A SURE SIGN THAT THE SLOW, STUMBLING PROGRESSION
INTO SPRING HAS FINALLY BEGUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AND BRINGING PRETTY LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES,
WINDS, AND PRECIPITATION TYPES. HONESTLY, THERE ARE SOME LARGE
FORECAST BUST POTENTIALS AT MANY POINTS OVER THE 5 DAY PERIOD, SO
DON`T CONSIDER ANY ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST TO BE A "DONE DEAL",
THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE CONSIDERABLE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE COMING
DAYS. HERE ARE SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS...

FRIDAY: WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, PROBABLY ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEPARATING VERY WARM AIR TO THE SOUTH AND MILD
AIR TO THE NORTH. SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL
SEE ON FRIDAY - THE GFS KEEPS IT CLOUDY, WHILE THE EURO CLEARS IT
OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE CLOUDIER AND COOLER
GFS, IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 50S AND
PERHAPS MAKE A RUN AT SOME LOWER 60S. THE EURO WOULD SUGGEST
POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 DEGREES. STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS AT THIS
POINT. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE LEVEL FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION, CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK.

FRIDAY NIGHT: A MORE POTENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT, AND BECOME WIDESPREAD.
SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF INTENSIFYING, THUS
TIGHTENING THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. LOOKS TO BE A RAIN SOUTH AND
A RAIN TO SNOW SITUATION IN THE NORTH. EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE
CHANGEOVERS WILL OCCUR WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION AND
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. STRONG FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM AS WELL, SO
A BURST OF MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIPITATION LATE NIGHT IS QUITE
LIKELY. WILL IT BE ALL SNOW? OR ALL RAIN? OR A MIX? THOSE ARE THE
QUESTIONS. AT THIS POINT, TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY TO PINPOINT
SNOWFALL TOTALS, BUT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
`DACKS.

SATURDAY: SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY PUSHES EAST AS IT INTENSIFIES.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMES IN, SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL END AS SNOW. COULD BE SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT AND NEW YORK.
GRADIENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP, SO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 40MPH RANGE, IF
THE STORM DEEPENS AS MUCH AS THE GFS INDICATES. THE ECMWF IS
WEAKER, BUT STILL A SIMILAR SITUATION.

SUNDAY: QUIETER THAN SATURDAY, AND ALSO COLD. FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW A TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH, AND ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SUNSHINE, WE`LL HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN ISOLATED FLURRIES/BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY REGIONS, 20S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
COLD IT WILL GET SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK HIGH WILL BE TO THE NORTH,
HOWEVER ANOTHER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH,
AND THIS COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME CLOUDS. MODELS WERE ALL OVER
THE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES -- RANGING FROM ROUGHLY 0 TO 20
DEGREES. STAYED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS AT THIS POINT.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: PROBABLY DRY FOR MONDAY, BUT FLOW ALOFT TURNS
SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STARTS TO GET GOING SO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND ULTIMATELY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.


LOOKING BEYOND, THERE ARE SOME HINTS FOR MID-WEEK THAT WE`LL HAVE
A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN AND RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES. WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SNOWMELT, ICE JAMS, AND SOME FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, A QUIET AVIATION PERIOD WITH VFR SKC CONDITIONS (SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12KFT AGL). WINDS NORTH 4-8 KTS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010453
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1253 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS TREND UNSETTLED BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW.
A WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
MILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE COOLING SHARPLY BY THE COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1019 PM EDT TUESDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
ONLY CHANGES WITH LATEST UPDATE WERE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. THIS RESULTED IN LOWERING OVERNIGHT MINS
A DEGREE OR TWO MOST AREAS. OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS...SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES. COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. STILL
LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S...WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN
NORMALLY COLDER PORTIONS OF ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH THEN SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
DRY WEATHER. MODEL BLENDED 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE A TAD COOLER
TOMORROW AND APPEAR REASONABLE PER HYSPLIT 500M BACK TRAJECTORY
ANALYSIS. DID LEAN ON THE MILDER END OF GUIDANCE THOUGH (MID TO
UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS) GIVEN DEEPER PBL MIXING AND RECENT COOL
BIAS OF MOS OUTPUT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH SLIDES EAST WITH A
LIGHT RETURN FLOW AND A FAIRLY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT
ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION. THUS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
LATER AT NIGHT WITH LOWS 3 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT, BEING
ACHIEVED DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS
ARRIVE. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY/LIGHT SHSN ACROSS
THE SLV/FAR NRN NY LATE, BUT VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.

BY THURSDAY WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TRENDING QUITE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AS PARENT LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTH THROUGH THE JAMES BAY REGION. AGAIN, I CAN`T
RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT WITH BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING
MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER AND A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
TO ITS SOUTH QPF WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST WITH ONLY NOMINAL CHANCE POPS
OFFERED. WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPERATURES
RESPOND IN KIND WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S IN EASTERN
VERMONT, AND GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST. INDEED, MEAN 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD
SUGGEST EVEN MILDER READINGS UNDER A FULLY-MIXED/SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER,
PLENTY OF LINGERING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.

THEN CONTINUED QUITE MILD THURSDAY NIGHT AS JAMES BAY LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTHEAST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL LATE
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT IN GENERAL READINGS SHOULD HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. A
DECENT PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE FEED (PWATS TO 1.25 INCHES) AND FAIRLY
ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY,
ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER (60/70%) POPS FOR A PERIOD OF STEADIER
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
FOR MOST SPOTS. THIS WILL BE OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IN
SEVERAL MONTHS, A SURE SIGN THAT THE SLOW, STUMBLING PROGRESSION
INTO SPRING HAS FINALLY BEGUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AND BRINGING PRETTY LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES,
WINDS, AND PRECIPITATION TYPES. HONESTLY, THERE ARE SOME LARGE
FORECAST BUST POTENTIALS AT MANY POINTS OVER THE 5 DAY PERIOD, SO
DON`T CONSIDER ANY ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST TO BE A "DONE DEAL",
THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE CONSIDERABLE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE COMING
DAYS. HERE ARE SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS...

FRIDAY: WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, PROBABLY ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEPARATING VERY WARM AIR TO THE SOUTH AND MILD
AIR TO THE NORTH. SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL
SEE ON FRIDAY - THE GFS KEEPS IT CLOUDY, WHILE THE EURO CLEARS IT
OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE CLOUDIER AND COOLER
GFS, IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 50S AND
PERHAPS MAKE A RUN AT SOME LOWER 60S. THE EURO WOULD SUGGEST
POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 DEGREES. STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS AT THIS
POINT. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE LEVEL FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION, CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK.

FRIDAY NIGHT: A MORE POTENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT, AND BECOME WIDESPREAD.
SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF INTENSIFYING, THUS
TIGHTENING THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. LOOKS TO BE A RAIN SOUTH AND
A RAIN TO SNOW SITUATION IN THE NORTH. EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE
CHANGEOVERS WILL OCCUR WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION AND
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. STRONG FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM AS WELL, SO
A BURST OF MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIPITATION LATE NIGHT IS QUITE
LIKELY. WILL IT BE ALL SNOW? OR ALL RAIN? OR A MIX? THOSE ARE THE
QUESTIONS. AT THIS POINT, TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY TO PINPOINT
SNOWFALL TOTALS, BUT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
`DACKS.

SATURDAY: SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY PUSHES EAST AS IT INTENSIFIES.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMES IN, SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL END AS SNOW. COULD BE SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT AND NEW YORK.
GRADIENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP, SO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 40MPH RANGE, IF
THE STORM DEEPENS AS MUCH AS THE GFS INDICATES. THE ECMWF IS
WEAKER, BUT STILL A SIMILAR SITUATION.

SUNDAY: QUIETER THAN SATURDAY, AND ALSO COLD. FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW A TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH, AND ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SUNSHINE, WE`LL HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN ISOLATED FLURRIES/BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY REGIONS, 20S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
COLD IT WILL GET SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK HIGH WILL BE TO THE NORTH,
HOWEVER ANOTHER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH,
AND THIS COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME CLOUDS. MODELS WERE ALL OVER
THE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES -- RANGING FROM ROUGHLY 0 TO 20
DEGREES. STAYED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS AT THIS POINT.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: PROBABLY DRY FOR MONDAY, BUT FLOW ALOFT TURNS
SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STARTS TO GET GOING SO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND ULTIMATELY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.


LOOKING BEYOND, THERE ARE SOME HINTS FOR MID-WEEK THAT WE`LL HAVE
A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN AND RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES. WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SNOWMELT, ICE JAMS, AND SOME FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, A QUIET AVIATION PERIOD WITH VFR SKC CONDITIONS (SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12KFT AGL). WINDS NORTH 4-8 KTS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KALY 010421
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1221 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SKIES WERE CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING
WAVE. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THE COMBINATION OF
WET SURFACES AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN BLACK
ICE FORMATION. WE HAVE ISSUED A SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE WAS APPROACHING SO THE
CLEARING WINDOW WILL BE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER 20S.

PREV DISC...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW TRACKING
EAST...AND WILL SCRAPE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
SOME DUSTINGS OF WET SNOW IN SOME GRASSY AREAS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS EVENING.THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER
IS GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH...AND CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD REINTRODUCE
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT NOT QUITE CALM...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. LOWS IN THE 20S
MOST AREAS...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN EXIT QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. SO MIXING POTENTIAL WITH INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND QUITE A TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST
OF THE REGION. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF BREAKING INTO A WARM
SECTOR...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND
STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S...MAYBE AROUND 60 IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPING AND
ENHANCED MIXING...AS LONG AS THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED ONSHORE
FLOW.

IF SOME AREAS SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN...SOME AREAS COULD GET
INTO THE 60S...WHILE IF THE WARMING IS DELAYED DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY. NOT MUCH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EVEN WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO NOT INDICATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS
APPROACH. BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY SHOWERS...MAYBE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS THERE MAY
BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED AND
ACTIVE PATTERN AS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REGARDING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS
MAXIMUM DYNAMICS ARE ACHIEVED THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG PIECE OF
NORTHERN STREAM PV ENERGY AND A DUAL UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH
THE FORECAST AREA BEING UNDERNEATH THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET. CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
GOING NEGATIVE-TILT...ENHANCING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TIGHTENS THE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING
TRANSITION TIMES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME AS ALTHOUGH THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK GOING NORTHEAST UP INTERSTATE 88 AND OVER INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THERE STILL REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER COMPLICATING ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION RATES...WHICH WILL
LIKELY FEATURE BURSTS OF OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT IN PLACE AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS THROWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE TERRAIN
AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE AS WELL
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TIMES.

REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH THE THINKING THAT INITIALLY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT. POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS
PLOWABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS A DUSTING TO ALMOST AN INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A
CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A BLUSTERY AND GLOOMY DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. ANOTHER SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO
MID 40S...RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY AND FROM THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S...WITH SOME LOW 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS TO UPPER 30S...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DEVELOPED AT KPOU WHERE ENHANCED PRECIP
DEVELOPED RESULTING IN LOWER CIGS. THIS SHOULD LINGER A LITTLE
LONGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE IMPROVEMENTS TAKE SHAPE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
WE WILL WATCH THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GET RATHER CLOSE AT KPOU
/WHERE PRECIP HAS OCCURRED/ AND LOCAL EFFECTS AT KGFL WHERE WE
WILL PLACE BCFG AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS.

THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT WHERE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. THIS SHOULD
ASSIST WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO ANY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AT KGFL-
KPOU. THEN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN
65 AND 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...SND/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 010421
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1221 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SKIES WERE CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING
WAVE. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THE COMBINATION OF
WET SURFACES AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN BLACK
ICE FORMATION. WE HAVE ISSUED A SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE WAS APPROACHING SO THE
CLEARING WINDOW WILL BE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER 20S.

PREV DISC...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW TRACKING
EAST...AND WILL SCRAPE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
SOME DUSTINGS OF WET SNOW IN SOME GRASSY AREAS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS EVENING.THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER
IS GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH...AND CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD REINTRODUCE
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT NOT QUITE CALM...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. LOWS IN THE 20S
MOST AREAS...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN EXIT QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. SO MIXING POTENTIAL WITH INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND QUITE A TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST
OF THE REGION. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF BREAKING INTO A WARM
SECTOR...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND
STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S...MAYBE AROUND 60 IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPING AND
ENHANCED MIXING...AS LONG AS THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED ONSHORE
FLOW.

IF SOME AREAS SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN...SOME AREAS COULD GET
INTO THE 60S...WHILE IF THE WARMING IS DELAYED DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY. NOT MUCH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EVEN WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO NOT INDICATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS
APPROACH. BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY SHOWERS...MAYBE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS THERE MAY
BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED AND
ACTIVE PATTERN AS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REGARDING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS
MAXIMUM DYNAMICS ARE ACHIEVED THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG PIECE OF
NORTHERN STREAM PV ENERGY AND A DUAL UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH
THE FORECAST AREA BEING UNDERNEATH THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET. CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
GOING NEGATIVE-TILT...ENHANCING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TIGHTENS THE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING
TRANSITION TIMES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME AS ALTHOUGH THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK GOING NORTHEAST UP INTERSTATE 88 AND OVER INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THERE STILL REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER COMPLICATING ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION RATES...WHICH WILL
LIKELY FEATURE BURSTS OF OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT IN PLACE AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS THROWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE TERRAIN
AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE AS WELL
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TIMES.

REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH THE THINKING THAT INITIALLY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT. POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS
PLOWABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS A DUSTING TO ALMOST AN INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A
CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A BLUSTERY AND GLOOMY DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. ANOTHER SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO
MID 40S...RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY AND FROM THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S...WITH SOME LOW 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS TO UPPER 30S...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DEVELOPED AT KPOU WHERE ENHANCED PRECIP
DEVELOPED RESULTING IN LOWER CIGS. THIS SHOULD LINGER A LITTLE
LONGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE IMPROVEMENTS TAKE SHAPE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
WE WILL WATCH THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GET RATHER CLOSE AT KPOU
/WHERE PRECIP HAS OCCURRED/ AND LOCAL EFFECTS AT KGFL WHERE WE
WILL PLACE BCFG AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS.

THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT WHERE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. THIS SHOULD
ASSIST WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO ANY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AT KGFL-
KPOU. THEN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN
65 AND 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...SND/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 010421
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1221 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SKIES WERE CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING
WAVE. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THE COMBINATION OF
WET SURFACES AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN BLACK
ICE FORMATION. WE HAVE ISSUED A SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE WAS APPROACHING SO THE
CLEARING WINDOW WILL BE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER 20S.

PREV DISC...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW TRACKING
EAST...AND WILL SCRAPE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
SOME DUSTINGS OF WET SNOW IN SOME GRASSY AREAS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS EVENING.THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER
IS GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH...AND CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD REINTRODUCE
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT NOT QUITE CALM...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. LOWS IN THE 20S
MOST AREAS...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN EXIT QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. SO MIXING POTENTIAL WITH INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND QUITE A TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST
OF THE REGION. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF BREAKING INTO A WARM
SECTOR...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND
STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S...MAYBE AROUND 60 IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPING AND
ENHANCED MIXING...AS LONG AS THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED ONSHORE
FLOW.

IF SOME AREAS SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN...SOME AREAS COULD GET
INTO THE 60S...WHILE IF THE WARMING IS DELAYED DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY. NOT MUCH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EVEN WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO NOT INDICATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS
APPROACH. BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY SHOWERS...MAYBE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS THERE MAY
BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED AND
ACTIVE PATTERN AS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REGARDING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS
MAXIMUM DYNAMICS ARE ACHIEVED THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG PIECE OF
NORTHERN STREAM PV ENERGY AND A DUAL UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH
THE FORECAST AREA BEING UNDERNEATH THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET. CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
GOING NEGATIVE-TILT...ENHANCING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TIGHTENS THE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING
TRANSITION TIMES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME AS ALTHOUGH THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK GOING NORTHEAST UP INTERSTATE 88 AND OVER INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THERE STILL REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER COMPLICATING ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION RATES...WHICH WILL
LIKELY FEATURE BURSTS OF OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT IN PLACE AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS THROWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE TERRAIN
AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE AS WELL
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TIMES.

REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH THE THINKING THAT INITIALLY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT. POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS
PLOWABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS A DUSTING TO ALMOST AN INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A
CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A BLUSTERY AND GLOOMY DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. ANOTHER SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO
MID 40S...RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY AND FROM THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S...WITH SOME LOW 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS TO UPPER 30S...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DEVELOPED AT KPOU WHERE ENHANCED PRECIP
DEVELOPED RESULTING IN LOWER CIGS. THIS SHOULD LINGER A LITTLE
LONGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE IMPROVEMENTS TAKE SHAPE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
WE WILL WATCH THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GET RATHER CLOSE AT KPOU
/WHERE PRECIP HAS OCCURRED/ AND LOCAL EFFECTS AT KGFL WHERE WE
WILL PLACE BCFG AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS.

THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT WHERE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. THIS SHOULD
ASSIST WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO ANY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AT KGFL-
KPOU. THEN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN
65 AND 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...SND/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 010421
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1221 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...SKIES WERE CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING
WAVE. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THE COMBINATION OF
WET SURFACES AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN BLACK
ICE FORMATION. WE HAVE ISSUED A SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE WAS APPROACHING SO THE
CLEARING WINDOW WILL BE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER 20S.

PREV DISC...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW TRACKING
EAST...AND WILL SCRAPE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
SOME DUSTINGS OF WET SNOW IN SOME GRASSY AREAS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS EVENING.THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER
IS GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH...AND CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD REINTRODUCE
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT NOT QUITE CALM...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. LOWS IN THE 20S
MOST AREAS...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN EXIT QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. SO MIXING POTENTIAL WITH INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND QUITE A TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST
OF THE REGION. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF BREAKING INTO A WARM
SECTOR...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND
STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S...MAYBE AROUND 60 IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPING AND
ENHANCED MIXING...AS LONG AS THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED ONSHORE
FLOW.

IF SOME AREAS SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN...SOME AREAS COULD GET
INTO THE 60S...WHILE IF THE WARMING IS DELAYED DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY. NOT MUCH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EVEN WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO NOT INDICATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS
APPROACH. BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY SHOWERS...MAYBE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS THERE MAY
BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED AND
ACTIVE PATTERN AS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REGARDING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS
MAXIMUM DYNAMICS ARE ACHIEVED THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG PIECE OF
NORTHERN STREAM PV ENERGY AND A DUAL UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH
THE FORECAST AREA BEING UNDERNEATH THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET. CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
GOING NEGATIVE-TILT...ENHANCING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TIGHTENS THE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING
TRANSITION TIMES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME AS ALTHOUGH THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK GOING NORTHEAST UP INTERSTATE 88 AND OVER INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THERE STILL REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER COMPLICATING ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION RATES...WHICH WILL
LIKELY FEATURE BURSTS OF OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT IN PLACE AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS THROWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE TERRAIN
AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE AS WELL
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TIMES.

REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH THE THINKING THAT INITIALLY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT. POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS
PLOWABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS A DUSTING TO ALMOST AN INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A
CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A BLUSTERY AND GLOOMY DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. ANOTHER SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO
MID 40S...RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY AND FROM THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S...WITH SOME LOW 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS TO UPPER 30S...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DEVELOPED AT KPOU WHERE ENHANCED PRECIP
DEVELOPED RESULTING IN LOWER CIGS. THIS SHOULD LINGER A LITTLE
LONGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE IMPROVEMENTS TAKE SHAPE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
WE WILL WATCH THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GET RATHER CLOSE AT KPOU
/WHERE PRECIP HAS OCCURRED/ AND LOCAL EFFECTS AT KGFL WHERE WE
WILL PLACE BCFG AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS.

THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT WHERE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. THIS SHOULD
ASSIST WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO ANY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AT KGFL-
KPOU. THEN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN
65 AND 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...SND/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 010234
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1034 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT...SKIES WERE CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING
WAVE. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THE COMBINATION OF
WET SURFACES AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN BLACK
ICE FORMATION. WE HAVE ISSUED A SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE WAS APPROACHING SO THE
CLEARING WINDOW WILL BE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISC...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW TRACKING
EAST...AND WILL SCRAPE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
SOME DUSTINGS OF WET SNOW IN SOME GRASSY AREAS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS EVENING.THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER
IS GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH...AND CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD REINTRODUCE
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT NOT QUITE CALM...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. LOWS IN THE 20S
MOST AREAS...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN EXIT QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. SO MIXING POTENTIAL WITH INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND QUITE A TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST
OF THE REGION. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF BREAKING INTO A WARM
SECTOR...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND
STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S...MAYBE AROUND 60 IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPING AND
ENHANCED MIXING...AS LONG AS THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED ONSHORE
FLOW.

IF SOME AREAS SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN...SOME AREAS COULD GET
INTO THE 60S...WHILE IF THE WARMING IS DELAYED DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY. NOT MUCH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EVEN WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO NOT INDICATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS
APPROACH. BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY SHOWERS...MAYBE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS THERE MAY
BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED AND
ACTIVE PATTERN AS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REGARDING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS
MAXIMUM DYNAMICS ARE ACHIEVED THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG PIECE OF
NORTHERN STREAM PV ENERGY AND A DUAL UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH
THE FORECAST AREA BEING UNDERNEATH THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET. CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
GOING NEGATIVE-TILT...ENHANCING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TIGHTENS THE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING
TRANSITION TIMES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME AS ALTHOUGH THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK GOING NORTHEAST UP INTERSTATE 88 AND OVER INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THERE STILL REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER COMPLICATING ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION RATES...WHICH WILL
LIKELY FEATURE BURSTS OF OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT IN PLACE AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS THROWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE TERRAIN
AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE AS WELL
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TIMES.

REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH THE THINKING THAT INITIALLY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT. POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS
PLOWABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS A DUSTING TO ALMOST AN INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A
CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A BLUSTERY AND GLOOMY DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. ANOTHER SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO
MID 40S...RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY AND FROM THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S...WITH SOME LOW 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS TO UPPER 30S...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DEVELOPED AT KPOU WHERE ENHANCED PRECIP
DEVELOPED RESULTING IN LOWER CIGS. THIS SHOULD LINGER A LITTLE
LONGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE IMPROVEMENTS TAKE SHAPE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
WE WILL WATCH THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GET RATHER CLOSE AT KPOU
/WHERE PRECIP HAS OCCURRED/ AND LOCAL EFFECTS AT KGFL WHERE WE
WILL PLACE BCFG AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS.

THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT WHERE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. THIS SHOULD
ASSIST WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO ANY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AT KGFL-
KPOU. THEN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN
65 AND 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...SND/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 010234
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1034 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT...SKIES WERE CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING
WAVE. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THE COMBINATION OF
WET SURFACES AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN BLACK
ICE FORMATION. WE HAVE ISSUED A SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE WAS APPROACHING SO THE
CLEARING WINDOW WILL BE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISC...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW TRACKING
EAST...AND WILL SCRAPE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
SOME DUSTINGS OF WET SNOW IN SOME GRASSY AREAS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS EVENING.THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER
IS GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH...AND CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD REINTRODUCE
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT NOT QUITE CALM...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. LOWS IN THE 20S
MOST AREAS...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN EXIT QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. SO MIXING POTENTIAL WITH INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND QUITE A TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST
OF THE REGION. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF BREAKING INTO A WARM
SECTOR...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND
STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S...MAYBE AROUND 60 IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPING AND
ENHANCED MIXING...AS LONG AS THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED ONSHORE
FLOW.

IF SOME AREAS SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN...SOME AREAS COULD GET
INTO THE 60S...WHILE IF THE WARMING IS DELAYED DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY. NOT MUCH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EVEN WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO NOT INDICATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS
APPROACH. BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY SHOWERS...MAYBE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS THERE MAY
BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED AND
ACTIVE PATTERN AS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REGARDING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS
MAXIMUM DYNAMICS ARE ACHIEVED THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG PIECE OF
NORTHERN STREAM PV ENERGY AND A DUAL UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH
THE FORECAST AREA BEING UNDERNEATH THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET. CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
GOING NEGATIVE-TILT...ENHANCING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TIGHTENS THE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING
TRANSITION TIMES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME AS ALTHOUGH THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK GOING NORTHEAST UP INTERSTATE 88 AND OVER INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THERE STILL REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER COMPLICATING ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION RATES...WHICH WILL
LIKELY FEATURE BURSTS OF OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT IN PLACE AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS THROWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE TERRAIN
AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE AS WELL
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TIMES.

REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH THE THINKING THAT INITIALLY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT. POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS
PLOWABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS A DUSTING TO ALMOST AN INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A
CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A BLUSTERY AND GLOOMY DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. ANOTHER SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO
MID 40S...RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY AND FROM THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S...WITH SOME LOW 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS TO UPPER 30S...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DEVELOPED AT KPOU WHERE ENHANCED PRECIP
DEVELOPED RESULTING IN LOWER CIGS. THIS SHOULD LINGER A LITTLE
LONGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE IMPROVEMENTS TAKE SHAPE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
WE WILL WATCH THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GET RATHER CLOSE AT KPOU
/WHERE PRECIP HAS OCCURRED/ AND LOCAL EFFECTS AT KGFL WHERE WE
WILL PLACE BCFG AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS.

THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT WHERE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. THIS SHOULD
ASSIST WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO ANY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AT KGFL-
KPOU. THEN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN
65 AND 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...SND/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 010234
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1034 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT...SKIES WERE CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING
WAVE. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THE COMBINATION OF
WET SURFACES AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN BLACK
ICE FORMATION. WE HAVE ISSUED A SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE WAS APPROACHING SO THE
CLEARING WINDOW WILL BE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISC...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW TRACKING
EAST...AND WILL SCRAPE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
SOME DUSTINGS OF WET SNOW IN SOME GRASSY AREAS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS EVENING.THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER
IS GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH...AND CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD REINTRODUCE
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT NOT QUITE CALM...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. LOWS IN THE 20S
MOST AREAS...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN EXIT QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. SO MIXING POTENTIAL WITH INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND QUITE A TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST
OF THE REGION. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF BREAKING INTO A WARM
SECTOR...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND
STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S...MAYBE AROUND 60 IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPING AND
ENHANCED MIXING...AS LONG AS THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED ONSHORE
FLOW.

IF SOME AREAS SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN...SOME AREAS COULD GET
INTO THE 60S...WHILE IF THE WARMING IS DELAYED DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY. NOT MUCH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EVEN WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO NOT INDICATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS
APPROACH. BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY SHOWERS...MAYBE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS THERE MAY
BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED AND
ACTIVE PATTERN AS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REGARDING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS
MAXIMUM DYNAMICS ARE ACHIEVED THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG PIECE OF
NORTHERN STREAM PV ENERGY AND A DUAL UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH
THE FORECAST AREA BEING UNDERNEATH THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET. CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
GOING NEGATIVE-TILT...ENHANCING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TIGHTENS THE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING
TRANSITION TIMES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME AS ALTHOUGH THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK GOING NORTHEAST UP INTERSTATE 88 AND OVER INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THERE STILL REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER COMPLICATING ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION RATES...WHICH WILL
LIKELY FEATURE BURSTS OF OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT IN PLACE AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS THROWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE TERRAIN
AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE AS WELL
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TIMES.

REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH THE THINKING THAT INITIALLY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT. POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS
PLOWABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS A DUSTING TO ALMOST AN INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A
CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A BLUSTERY AND GLOOMY DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. ANOTHER SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO
MID 40S...RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY AND FROM THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S...WITH SOME LOW 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS TO UPPER 30S...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DEVELOPED AT KPOU WHERE ENHANCED PRECIP
DEVELOPED RESULTING IN LOWER CIGS. THIS SHOULD LINGER A LITTLE
LONGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE IMPROVEMENTS TAKE SHAPE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
WE WILL WATCH THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GET RATHER CLOSE AT KPOU
/WHERE PRECIP HAS OCCURRED/ AND LOCAL EFFECTS AT KGFL WHERE WE
WILL PLACE BCFG AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS.

THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT WHERE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. THIS SHOULD
ASSIST WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO ANY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AT KGFL-
KPOU. THEN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN
65 AND 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...SND/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 010234
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1034 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT...SKIES WERE CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING
WAVE. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THE COMBINATION OF
WET SURFACES AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN BLACK
ICE FORMATION. WE HAVE ISSUED A SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE WAS APPROACHING SO THE
CLEARING WINDOW WILL BE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISC...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW TRACKING
EAST...AND WILL SCRAPE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
SOME DUSTINGS OF WET SNOW IN SOME GRASSY AREAS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS EVENING.THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER
IS GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH...AND CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD REINTRODUCE
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT NOT QUITE CALM...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. LOWS IN THE 20S
MOST AREAS...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN EXIT QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. SO MIXING POTENTIAL WITH INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND QUITE A TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST
OF THE REGION. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF BREAKING INTO A WARM
SECTOR...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND
STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S...MAYBE AROUND 60 IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPING AND
ENHANCED MIXING...AS LONG AS THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED ONSHORE
FLOW.

IF SOME AREAS SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN...SOME AREAS COULD GET
INTO THE 60S...WHILE IF THE WARMING IS DELAYED DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY. NOT MUCH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EVEN WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO NOT INDICATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS
APPROACH. BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY SHOWERS...MAYBE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS THERE MAY
BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED AND
ACTIVE PATTERN AS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REGARDING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS
MAXIMUM DYNAMICS ARE ACHIEVED THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG PIECE OF
NORTHERN STREAM PV ENERGY AND A DUAL UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH
THE FORECAST AREA BEING UNDERNEATH THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET. CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
GOING NEGATIVE-TILT...ENHANCING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TIGHTENS THE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING
TRANSITION TIMES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME AS ALTHOUGH THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK GOING NORTHEAST UP INTERSTATE 88 AND OVER INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THERE STILL REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER COMPLICATING ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION RATES...WHICH WILL
LIKELY FEATURE BURSTS OF OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT IN PLACE AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS THROWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE TERRAIN
AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE AS WELL
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TIMES.

REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH THE THINKING THAT INITIALLY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT. POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS
PLOWABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS A DUSTING TO ALMOST AN INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A
CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A BLUSTERY AND GLOOMY DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. ANOTHER SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO
MID 40S...RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY AND FROM THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S...WITH SOME LOW 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS TO UPPER 30S...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DEVELOPED AT KPOU WHERE ENHANCED PRECIP
DEVELOPED RESULTING IN LOWER CIGS. THIS SHOULD LINGER A LITTLE
LONGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE IMPROVEMENTS TAKE SHAPE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
WE WILL WATCH THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GET RATHER CLOSE AT KPOU
/WHERE PRECIP HAS OCCURRED/ AND LOCAL EFFECTS AT KGFL WHERE WE
WILL PLACE BCFG AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS.

THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT WHERE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. THIS SHOULD
ASSIST WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO ANY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AT KGFL-
KPOU. THEN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN
65 AND 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...SND/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 010230
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1030 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS TREND UNSETTLED BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW.
A WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
MILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE COOLING SHARPLY BY THE COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1019 PM EDT TUESDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
ONLY CHANGES WITH LATEST UPDATE WERE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. THIS RESULTED IN LOWERING OVERNIGHT MINS
A DEGREE OR TWO MOST AREAS. OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS...SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES. COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. STILL
LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S...WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN
NORMALLY COLDER PORTIONS OF ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH THEN SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
DRY WEATHER. MODEL BLENDED 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE A TAD COOLER
TOMORROW AND APPEAR REASONABLE PER HYSPLIT 500M BACK TRAJECTORY
ANALYSIS. DID LEAN ON THE MILDER END OF GUIDANCE THOUGH (MID TO
UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS) GIVEN DEEPER PBL MIXING AND RECENT COOL
BIAS OF MOS OUTPUT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH SLIDES EAST WITH A
LIGHT RETURN FLOW AND A FAIRLY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT
ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION. THUS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
LATER AT NIGHT WITH LOWS 3 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT, BEING
ACHIEVED DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS
ARRIVE. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY/LIGHT SHSN ACROSS
THE SLV/FAR NRN NY LATE, BUT VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.

BY THURSDAY WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TRENDING QUITE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AS PARENT LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTH THROUGH THE JAMES BAY REGION. AGAIN, I CAN`T
RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT WITH BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING
MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER AND A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
TO ITS SOUTH QPF WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST WITH ONLY NOMINAL CHANCE POPS
OFFERED. WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPERATURES
RESPOND IN KIND WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S IN EASTERN
VERMONT, AND GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST. INDEED, MEAN 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD
SUGGEST EVEN MILDER READINGS UNDER A FULLY-MIXED/SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER,
PLENTY OF LINGERING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.

THEN CONTINUED QUITE MILD THURSDAY NIGHT AS JAMES BAY LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTHEAST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL LATE
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT IN GENERAL READINGS SHOULD HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. A
DECENT PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE FEED (PWATS TO 1.25 INCHES) AND FAIRLY
ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY,
ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER (60/70%) POPS FOR A PERIOD OF STEADIER
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
FOR MOST SPOTS. THIS WILL BE OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IN
SEVERAL MONTHS, A SURE SIGN THAT THE SLOW, STUMBLING PROGRESSION
INTO SPRING HAS FINALLY BEGUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AND BRINGING PRETTY LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES,
WINDS, AND PRECIPITATION TYPES. HONESTLY, THERE ARE SOME LARGE
FORECAST BUST POTENTIALS AT MANY POINTS OVER THE 5 DAY PERIOD, SO
DON`T CONSIDER ANY ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST TO BE A "DONE DEAL",
THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE CONSIDERABLE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE COMING
DAYS. HERE ARE SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS...

FRIDAY: WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, PROBABLY ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEPARATING VERY WARM AIR TO THE SOUTH AND MILD
AIR TO THE NORTH. SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL
SEE ON FRIDAY - THE GFS KEEPS IT CLOUDY, WHILE THE EURO CLEARS IT
OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE CLOUDIER AND COOLER
GFS, IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 50S AND
PERHAPS MAKE A RUN AT SOME LOWER 60S. THE EURO WOULD SUGGEST
POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 DEGREES. STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS AT THIS
POINT. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE LEVEL FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION, CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK.

FRIDAY NIGHT: A MORE POTENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT, AND BECOME WIDESPREAD.
SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF INTENSIFYING, THUS
TIGHTENING THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. LOOKS TO BE A RAIN SOUTH AND
A RAIN TO SNOW SITUATION IN THE NORTH. EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE
CHANGEOVERS WILL OCCUR WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDANT ON ELEVATION AND
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. STRONG FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM AS WELL, SO
A BURST OF MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIPITATION LATE NIGHT IS QUITE
LIKELY. WILL IT BE ALL SNOW? OR ALL RAIN? OR A MIX? THOSE ARE THE
QUESTIONS. AT THIS POINT, TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY TO PINPOINT
SNOWFALL TOTALS, BUT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
`DACKS.

SATURDAY: SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY PUSHES EAST AS IT INTENSIFIES.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMES IN, SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL END AS SNOW. COULD BE SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT AND NEW YORK.
GRADIENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP, SO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 40MPH RANGE, IF
THE STORM DEEPENS AS MUCH AS THE GFS INDICATES. THE ECMWF IS
WEAKER, BUT STILL A SIMILAR SITUATION.

SUNDAY: QUIETER THAN SATURDAY, AND ALSO COLD. FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW A TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH, AND ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SUNSHINE, WE`LL HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN ISOLATED FLURRIES/BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY REGIONS, 20S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
COLD IT WILL GET SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK HIGH WILL BE TO THE NORTH,
HOWEVER ANOTHER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH,
AND THIS COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME CLOUDS. MODELS WERE ALL OVER
THE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES -- RANGING FROM ROUGHLY 0 TO 20
DEGREES. STAYED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS AT THIS POINT.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: PROBABLY DRY FOR MONDAY, BUT FLOW ALOFT TURNS
SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STARTS TO GET GOING SO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND ULTIMATELY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.


LOOKING BEYOND, THERE ARE SOME HINTS FOR MID-WEEK THAT WE`LL HAVE
A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN AND RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES. WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SNOWMELT, ICE JAMS, AND SOME FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, A QUIET AVIATION PERIOD WITH VFR SKC CONDITIONS (SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12KFT AGL). WINDS NORTH 4-8 KTS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...LOCONTO/NASH



000
FXUS61 KBTV 010230
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1030 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS TREND UNSETTLED BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW.
A WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
MILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE COOLING SHARPLY BY THE COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1019 PM EDT TUESDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
ONLY CHANGES WITH LATEST UPDATE WERE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. THIS RESULTED IN LOWERING OVERNIGHT MINS
A DEGREE OR TWO MOST AREAS. OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS...SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES. COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. STILL
LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S...WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN
NORMALLY COLDER PORTIONS OF ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH THEN SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
DRY WEATHER. MODEL BLENDED 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE A TAD COOLER
TOMORROW AND APPEAR REASONABLE PER HYSPLIT 500M BACK TRAJECTORY
ANALYSIS. DID LEAN ON THE MILDER END OF GUIDANCE THOUGH (MID TO
UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS) GIVEN DEEPER PBL MIXING AND RECENT COOL
BIAS OF MOS OUTPUT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH SLIDES EAST WITH A
LIGHT RETURN FLOW AND A FAIRLY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT
ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION. THUS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
LATER AT NIGHT WITH LOWS 3 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT, BEING
ACHIEVED DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS
ARRIVE. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY/LIGHT SHSN ACROSS
THE SLV/FAR NRN NY LATE, BUT VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.

BY THURSDAY WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TRENDING QUITE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AS PARENT LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTH THROUGH THE JAMES BAY REGION. AGAIN, I CAN`T
RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT WITH BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING
MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER AND A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
TO ITS SOUTH QPF WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST WITH ONLY NOMINAL CHANCE POPS
OFFERED. WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPERATURES
RESPOND IN KIND WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S IN EASTERN
VERMONT, AND GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST. INDEED, MEAN 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD
SUGGEST EVEN MILDER READINGS UNDER A FULLY-MIXED/SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER,
PLENTY OF LINGERING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.

THEN CONTINUED QUITE MILD THURSDAY NIGHT AS JAMES BAY LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTHEAST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL LATE
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT IN GENERAL READINGS SHOULD HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. A
DECENT PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE FEED (PWATS TO 1.25 INCHES) AND FAIRLY
ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY,
ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER (60/70%) POPS FOR A PERIOD OF STEADIER
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
FOR MOST SPOTS. THIS WILL BE OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IN
SEVERAL MONTHS, A SURE SIGN THAT THE SLOW, STUMBLING PROGRESSION
INTO SPRING HAS FINALLY BEGUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AND BRINGING PRETTY LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES,
WINDS, AND PRECIPITATION TYPES. HONESTLY, THERE ARE SOME LARGE
FORECAST BUST POTENTIALS AT MANY POINTS OVER THE 5 DAY PERIOD, SO
DON`T CONSIDER ANY ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST TO BE A "DONE DEAL",
THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE CONSIDERABLE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE COMING
DAYS. HERE ARE SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS...

FRIDAY: WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, PROBABLY ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEPARATING VERY WARM AIR TO THE SOUTH AND MILD
AIR TO THE NORTH. SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL
SEE ON FRIDAY - THE GFS KEEPS IT CLOUDY, WHILE THE EURO CLEARS IT
OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE CLOUDIER AND COOLER
GFS, IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 50S AND
PERHAPS MAKE A RUN AT SOME LOWER 60S. THE EURO WOULD SUGGEST
POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 DEGREES. STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS AT THIS
POINT. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE LEVEL FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION, CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK.

FRIDAY NIGHT: A MORE POTENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT, AND BECOME WIDESPREAD.
SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF INTENSIFYING, THUS
TIGHTENING THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. LOOKS TO BE A RAIN SOUTH AND
A RAIN TO SNOW SITUATION IN THE NORTH. EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE
CHANGEOVERS WILL OCCUR WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDANT ON ELEVATION AND
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. STRONG FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM AS WELL, SO
A BURST OF MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIPITATION LATE NIGHT IS QUITE
LIKELY. WILL IT BE ALL SNOW? OR ALL RAIN? OR A MIX? THOSE ARE THE
QUESTIONS. AT THIS POINT, TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY TO PINPOINT
SNOWFALL TOTALS, BUT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
`DACKS.

SATURDAY: SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY PUSHES EAST AS IT INTENSIFIES.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMES IN, SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL END AS SNOW. COULD BE SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT AND NEW YORK.
GRADIENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP, SO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 40MPH RANGE, IF
THE STORM DEEPENS AS MUCH AS THE GFS INDICATES. THE ECMWF IS
WEAKER, BUT STILL A SIMILAR SITUATION.

SUNDAY: QUIETER THAN SATURDAY, AND ALSO COLD. FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW A TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH, AND ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SUNSHINE, WE`LL HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN ISOLATED FLURRIES/BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY REGIONS, 20S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
COLD IT WILL GET SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK HIGH WILL BE TO THE NORTH,
HOWEVER ANOTHER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH,
AND THIS COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME CLOUDS. MODELS WERE ALL OVER
THE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES -- RANGING FROM ROUGHLY 0 TO 20
DEGREES. STAYED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS AT THIS POINT.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: PROBABLY DRY FOR MONDAY, BUT FLOW ALOFT TURNS
SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STARTS TO GET GOING SO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND ULTIMATELY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.


LOOKING BEYOND, THERE ARE SOME HINTS FOR MID-WEEK THAT WE`LL HAVE
A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN AND RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES. WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SNOWMELT, ICE JAMS, AND SOME FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, A QUIET AVIATION PERIOD WITH VFR SKC CONDITIONS (SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12KFT AGL). WINDS NORTH 4-8 KTS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...LOCONTO/NASH




000
FXUS61 KALY 312339
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
739 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT...PRECIPITATION WAS QUICKLY DEPARTING THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS AS FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TRACKS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THERE IS A REGION OF SUBSIDENCE AS SEEN IN THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH MOCLR SKIES ACROSS THE DACKS AND ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC. PER THE LATEST HRRR/RAP...THIS
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME RESIDUAL UPSLOPE CONDITIONS FOR THE
TACONICS...BERKS...SOUTHERN GREENS AND NW CT MAY HANG TO SOME
CLOUDS A LITTLE LONGER. FURTHERMORE...WHERE PRECIP HAS OCCURRED AND
LOCAL EFFECTS IN AND AROUND GLENS FALLS...SOME LIGHT MIST/FOG MAY
EVOLVE IF THE WINDS ARE ABLE TO FULLY DECOUPLE BEFORE THE LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTS IN OVERNIGHT. MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST
GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISC...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW TRACKING
EAST...AND WILL SCRAPE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
SOME DUSTINGS OF WET SNOW IN SOME GRASSY AREAS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS EVENING.THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER
IS GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH...AND CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD REINTRODUCE
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT NOT QUITE CALM...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. LOWS IN THE 20S
MOST AREAS...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN EXIT QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. SO MIXING POTENTIAL WITH INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND QUITE A TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST
OF THE REGION. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF BREAKING INTO A WARM
SECTOR...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND
STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S...MAYBE AROUND 60 IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPING AND
ENHANCED MIXING...AS LONG AS THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED ONSHORE
FLOW.

IF SOME AREAS SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN...SOME AREAS COULD GET
INTO THE 60S...WHILE IF THE WARMING IS DELAYED DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY. NOT MUCH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EVEN WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO NOT INDICATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS
APPROACH. BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY SHOWERS...MAYBE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS THERE MAY
BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED AND
ACTIVE PATTERN AS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REGARDING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS
MAXIMUM DYNAMICS ARE ACHIEVED THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG PIECE OF
NORTHERN STREAM PV ENERGY AND A DUAL UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH
THE FORECAST AREA BEING UNDERNEATH THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET. CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
GOING NEGATIVE-TILT...ENHANCING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TIGHTENS THE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING
TRANSITION TIMES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME AS ALTHOUGH THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK GOING NORTHEAST UP INTERSTATE 88 AND OVER INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THERE STILL REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER COMPLICATING ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION RATES...WHICH WILL
LIKELY FEATURE BURSTS OF OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT IN PLACE AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS THROWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE TERRAIN
AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE AS WELL
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TIMES.

REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH THE THINKING THAT INITIALLY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT. POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS
PLOWABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS A DUSTING TO ALMOST AN INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A
CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A BLUSTERY AND GLOOMY DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. ANOTHER SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO
MID 40S...RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY AND FROM THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S...WITH SOME LOW 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS TO UPPER 30S...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DEVELOPED AT KPOU WHERE ENHANCED PRECIP
DEVELOPED RESULTING IN LOWER CIGS. THIS SHOULD LINGER A LITTLE
LONGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE IMPROVEMENTS TAKE SHAPE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
WE WILL WATCH THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GET RATHER CLOSE AT KPOU
/WHERE PRECIP HAS OCCURRED/ AND LOCAL EFFECTS AT KGFL WHERE WE
WILL PLACE BCFG AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS.

THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT WHERE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. THIS SHOULD
ASSIST WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO ANY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AT KGFL-
KPOU. THEN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN
65 AND 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...SND/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 312339
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
739 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT...PRECIPITATION WAS QUICKLY DEPARTING THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS AS FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TRACKS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THERE IS A REGION OF SUBSIDENCE AS SEEN IN THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH MOCLR SKIES ACROSS THE DACKS AND ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC. PER THE LATEST HRRR/RAP...THIS
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME RESIDUAL UPSLOPE CONDITIONS FOR THE
TACONICS...BERKS...SOUTHERN GREENS AND NW CT MAY HANG TO SOME
CLOUDS A LITTLE LONGER. FURTHERMORE...WHERE PRECIP HAS OCCURRED AND
LOCAL EFFECTS IN AND AROUND GLENS FALLS...SOME LIGHT MIST/FOG MAY
EVOLVE IF THE WINDS ARE ABLE TO FULLY DECOUPLE BEFORE THE LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTS IN OVERNIGHT. MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST
GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISC...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW TRACKING
EAST...AND WILL SCRAPE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
SOME DUSTINGS OF WET SNOW IN SOME GRASSY AREAS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS EVENING.THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER
IS GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH...AND CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD REINTRODUCE
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT NOT QUITE CALM...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. LOWS IN THE 20S
MOST AREAS...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN EXIT QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. SO MIXING POTENTIAL WITH INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND QUITE A TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST
OF THE REGION. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF BREAKING INTO A WARM
SECTOR...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND
STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S...MAYBE AROUND 60 IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPING AND
ENHANCED MIXING...AS LONG AS THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED ONSHORE
FLOW.

IF SOME AREAS SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN...SOME AREAS COULD GET
INTO THE 60S...WHILE IF THE WARMING IS DELAYED DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY. NOT MUCH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EVEN WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO NOT INDICATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS
APPROACH. BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY SHOWERS...MAYBE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS THERE MAY
BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED AND
ACTIVE PATTERN AS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REGARDING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS
MAXIMUM DYNAMICS ARE ACHIEVED THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG PIECE OF
NORTHERN STREAM PV ENERGY AND A DUAL UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH
THE FORECAST AREA BEING UNDERNEATH THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET. CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
GOING NEGATIVE-TILT...ENHANCING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TIGHTENS THE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING
TRANSITION TIMES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME AS ALTHOUGH THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK GOING NORTHEAST UP INTERSTATE 88 AND OVER INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THERE STILL REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER COMPLICATING ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION RATES...WHICH WILL
LIKELY FEATURE BURSTS OF OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT IN PLACE AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS THROWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE TERRAIN
AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE AS WELL
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TIMES.

REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH THE THINKING THAT INITIALLY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT. POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS
PLOWABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS A DUSTING TO ALMOST AN INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A
CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A BLUSTERY AND GLOOMY DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. ANOTHER SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO
MID 40S...RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY AND FROM THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S...WITH SOME LOW 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS TO UPPER 30S...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DEVELOPED AT KPOU WHERE ENHANCED PRECIP
DEVELOPED RESULTING IN LOWER CIGS. THIS SHOULD LINGER A LITTLE
LONGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE IMPROVEMENTS TAKE SHAPE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
WE WILL WATCH THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GET RATHER CLOSE AT KPOU
/WHERE PRECIP HAS OCCURRED/ AND LOCAL EFFECTS AT KGFL WHERE WE
WILL PLACE BCFG AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS.

THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT WHERE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. THIS SHOULD
ASSIST WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO ANY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AT KGFL-
KPOU. THEN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN
65 AND 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...SND/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 312339
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
739 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT...PRECIPITATION WAS QUICKLY DEPARTING THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS AS FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TRACKS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THERE IS A REGION OF SUBSIDENCE AS SEEN IN THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH MOCLR SKIES ACROSS THE DACKS AND ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC. PER THE LATEST HRRR/RAP...THIS
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME RESIDUAL UPSLOPE CONDITIONS FOR THE
TACONICS...BERKS...SOUTHERN GREENS AND NW CT MAY HANG TO SOME
CLOUDS A LITTLE LONGER. FURTHERMORE...WHERE PRECIP HAS OCCURRED AND
LOCAL EFFECTS IN AND AROUND GLENS FALLS...SOME LIGHT MIST/FOG MAY
EVOLVE IF THE WINDS ARE ABLE TO FULLY DECOUPLE BEFORE THE LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTS IN OVERNIGHT. MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST
GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISC...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW TRACKING
EAST...AND WILL SCRAPE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
SOME DUSTINGS OF WET SNOW IN SOME GRASSY AREAS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS EVENING.THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER
IS GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH...AND CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD REINTRODUCE
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT NOT QUITE CALM...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. LOWS IN THE 20S
MOST AREAS...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN EXIT QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. SO MIXING POTENTIAL WITH INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND QUITE A TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST
OF THE REGION. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF BREAKING INTO A WARM
SECTOR...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND
STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S...MAYBE AROUND 60 IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPING AND
ENHANCED MIXING...AS LONG AS THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED ONSHORE
FLOW.

IF SOME AREAS SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN...SOME AREAS COULD GET
INTO THE 60S...WHILE IF THE WARMING IS DELAYED DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY. NOT MUCH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EVEN WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO NOT INDICATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS
APPROACH. BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY SHOWERS...MAYBE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS THERE MAY
BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED AND
ACTIVE PATTERN AS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REGARDING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS
MAXIMUM DYNAMICS ARE ACHIEVED THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG PIECE OF
NORTHERN STREAM PV ENERGY AND A DUAL UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH
THE FORECAST AREA BEING UNDERNEATH THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET. CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
GOING NEGATIVE-TILT...ENHANCING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TIGHTENS THE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING
TRANSITION TIMES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME AS ALTHOUGH THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK GOING NORTHEAST UP INTERSTATE 88 AND OVER INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THERE STILL REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER COMPLICATING ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION RATES...WHICH WILL
LIKELY FEATURE BURSTS OF OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT IN PLACE AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS THROWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE TERRAIN
AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE AS WELL
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TIMES.

REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH THE THINKING THAT INITIALLY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT. POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS
PLOWABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS A DUSTING TO ALMOST AN INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A
CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A BLUSTERY AND GLOOMY DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. ANOTHER SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO
MID 40S...RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY AND FROM THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S...WITH SOME LOW 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS TO UPPER 30S...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DEVELOPED AT KPOU WHERE ENHANCED PRECIP
DEVELOPED RESULTING IN LOWER CIGS. THIS SHOULD LINGER A LITTLE
LONGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE IMPROVEMENTS TAKE SHAPE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
WE WILL WATCH THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GET RATHER CLOSE AT KPOU
/WHERE PRECIP HAS OCCURRED/ AND LOCAL EFFECTS AT KGFL WHERE WE
WILL PLACE BCFG AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS.

THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT WHERE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. THIS SHOULD
ASSIST WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO ANY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AT KGFL-
KPOU. THEN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN
65 AND 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...SND/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 312339
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
739 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT...PRECIPITATION WAS QUICKLY DEPARTING THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS AS FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TRACKS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THERE IS A REGION OF SUBSIDENCE AS SEEN IN THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH MOCLR SKIES ACROSS THE DACKS AND ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC. PER THE LATEST HRRR/RAP...THIS
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME RESIDUAL UPSLOPE CONDITIONS FOR THE
TACONICS...BERKS...SOUTHERN GREENS AND NW CT MAY HANG TO SOME
CLOUDS A LITTLE LONGER. FURTHERMORE...WHERE PRECIP HAS OCCURRED AND
LOCAL EFFECTS IN AND AROUND GLENS FALLS...SOME LIGHT MIST/FOG MAY
EVOLVE IF THE WINDS ARE ABLE TO FULLY DECOUPLE BEFORE THE LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTS IN OVERNIGHT. MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST
GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISC...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW TRACKING
EAST...AND WILL SCRAPE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
SOME DUSTINGS OF WET SNOW IN SOME GRASSY AREAS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS EVENING.THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER
IS GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH...AND CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD REINTRODUCE
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT NOT QUITE CALM...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. LOWS IN THE 20S
MOST AREAS...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN EXIT QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. SO MIXING POTENTIAL WITH INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND QUITE A TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST
OF THE REGION. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF BREAKING INTO A WARM
SECTOR...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND
STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S...MAYBE AROUND 60 IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPING AND
ENHANCED MIXING...AS LONG AS THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED ONSHORE
FLOW.

IF SOME AREAS SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN...SOME AREAS COULD GET
INTO THE 60S...WHILE IF THE WARMING IS DELAYED DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY. NOT MUCH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EVEN WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO NOT INDICATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS
APPROACH. BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY SHOWERS...MAYBE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS THERE MAY
BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED AND
ACTIVE PATTERN AS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REGARDING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS
MAXIMUM DYNAMICS ARE ACHIEVED THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG PIECE OF
NORTHERN STREAM PV ENERGY AND A DUAL UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH
THE FORECAST AREA BEING UNDERNEATH THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET. CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
GOING NEGATIVE-TILT...ENHANCING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TIGHTENS THE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING
TRANSITION TIMES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME AS ALTHOUGH THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK GOING NORTHEAST UP INTERSTATE 88 AND OVER INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THERE STILL REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER COMPLICATING ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION RATES...WHICH WILL
LIKELY FEATURE BURSTS OF OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT IN PLACE AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS THROWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE TERRAIN
AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE AS WELL
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TIMES.

REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH THE THINKING THAT INITIALLY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT. POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS
PLOWABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS A DUSTING TO ALMOST AN INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A
CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A BLUSTERY AND GLOOMY DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. ANOTHER SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO
MID 40S...RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY AND FROM THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S...WITH SOME LOW 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS TO UPPER 30S...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DEVELOPED AT KPOU WHERE ENHANCED PRECIP
DEVELOPED RESULTING IN LOWER CIGS. THIS SHOULD LINGER A LITTLE
LONGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE IMPROVEMENTS TAKE SHAPE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
WE WILL WATCH THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GET RATHER CLOSE AT KPOU
/WHERE PRECIP HAS OCCURRED/ AND LOCAL EFFECTS AT KGFL WHERE WE
WILL PLACE BCFG AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS.

THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT WHERE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. THIS SHOULD
ASSIST WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO ANY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AT KGFL-
KPOU. THEN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN
65 AND 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...SND/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 312339
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
739 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT...PRECIPITATION WAS QUICKLY DEPARTING THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS AS FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TRACKS OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THERE IS A REGION OF SUBSIDENCE AS SEEN IN THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH MOCLR SKIES ACROSS THE DACKS AND ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC. PER THE LATEST HRRR/RAP...THIS
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME RESIDUAL UPSLOPE CONDITIONS FOR THE
TACONICS...BERKS...SOUTHERN GREENS AND NW CT MAY HANG TO SOME
CLOUDS A LITTLE LONGER. FURTHERMORE...WHERE PRECIP HAS OCCURRED AND
LOCAL EFFECTS IN AND AROUND GLENS FALLS...SOME LIGHT MIST/FOG MAY
EVOLVE IF THE WINDS ARE ABLE TO FULLY DECOUPLE BEFORE THE LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTS IN OVERNIGHT. MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST
GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISC...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW TRACKING
EAST...AND WILL SCRAPE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
SOME DUSTINGS OF WET SNOW IN SOME GRASSY AREAS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION EXITS THIS EVENING.THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER
IS GRADUALLY BUILDING SOUTH...AND CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD REINTRODUCE
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT NOT QUITE CALM...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. LOWS IN THE 20S
MOST AREAS...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN EXIT QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. SO MIXING POTENTIAL WITH INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND QUITE A TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST
OF THE REGION. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF BREAKING INTO A WARM
SECTOR...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND
STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S...MAYBE AROUND 60 IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPING AND
ENHANCED MIXING...AS LONG AS THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED ONSHORE
FLOW.

IF SOME AREAS SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN...SOME AREAS COULD GET
INTO THE 60S...WHILE IF THE WARMING IS DELAYED DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY. NOT MUCH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EVEN WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO NOT INDICATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS
APPROACH. BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY SHOWERS...MAYBE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS THERE MAY
BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED AND
ACTIVE PATTERN AS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REGARDING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS
MAXIMUM DYNAMICS ARE ACHIEVED THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG PIECE OF
NORTHERN STREAM PV ENERGY AND A DUAL UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH
THE FORECAST AREA BEING UNDERNEATH THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET. CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
GOING NEGATIVE-TILT...ENHANCING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TIGHTENS THE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING
TRANSITION TIMES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME AS ALTHOUGH THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK GOING NORTHEAST UP INTERSTATE 88 AND OVER INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THERE STILL REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER COMPLICATING ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION RATES...WHICH WILL
LIKELY FEATURE BURSTS OF OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT IN PLACE AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS THROWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE TERRAIN
AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE AS WELL
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TIMES.

REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH THE THINKING THAT INITIALLY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT. POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS
PLOWABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS A DUSTING TO ALMOST AN INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A
CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A BLUSTERY AND GLOOMY DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. ANOTHER SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO
MID 40S...RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY AND FROM THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S...WITH SOME LOW 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS TO UPPER 30S...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DEVELOPED AT KPOU WHERE ENHANCED PRECIP
DEVELOPED RESULTING IN LOWER CIGS. THIS SHOULD LINGER A LITTLE
LONGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE IMPROVEMENTS TAKE SHAPE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
WE WILL WATCH THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GET RATHER CLOSE AT KPOU
/WHERE PRECIP HAS OCCURRED/ AND LOCAL EFFECTS AT KGFL WHERE WE
WILL PLACE BCFG AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS.

THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT WHERE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. THIS SHOULD
ASSIST WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO ANY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AT KGFL-
KPOU. THEN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN
65 AND 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...SND/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 312313
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
713 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS TREND UNSETTLED BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW.
A WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
MILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE COOLING SHARPLY BY THE COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 705 PM EDT TUESDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY
CHANGES WITH LATEST UPDATE WERE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS. OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH OFF DELMARVA COAST THIS
EVENING...LOOK FOR CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. THIS
COMBINATION WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. STILL LOOKING
AT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S...BUT SINGLE DIGITS IN NORMALLY
COLDER PORTIONS OF ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION FROM
SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK CLIPPER LOW WILL
PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BEING THE DOMINANT
INFLUENCE, MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE.
SEASONABLY CHILLY LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S STILL LOOK ON
TRACK, PERHAPS A FEW SINGLE DIGITS IN FAVORED COLDER HOLLOWS OF
THE DACKS/NE KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH THEN SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
DRY WEATHER. MODEL BLENDED 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE A TAD COOLER
TOMORROW AND APPEAR REASONABLE PER HYSPLIT 500M BACK TRAJECTORY
ANALYSIS. DID LEAN ON THE MILDER END OF GUIDANCE THOUGH (MID TO
UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS) GIVEN DEEPER PBL MIXING AND RECENT COOL
BIAS OF MOS OUTPUT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH SLIDES EAST WITH A
LIGHT RETURN FLOW AND A FAIRLY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT
ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION. THUS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
LATER AT NIGHT WITH LOWS 3 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT, BEING
ACHIEVED DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS
ARRIVE. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY/LIGHT SHSN ACROSS
THE SLV/FAR NRN NY LATE, BUT VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.

BY THURSDAY WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TRENDING QUITE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AS PARENT LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTH THROUGH THE JAMES BAY REGION. AGAIN, I CAN`T
RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT WITH BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING
MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER AND A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
TO ITS SOUTH QPF WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST WITH ONLY NOMINAL CHANCE POPS
OFFERED. WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPERATURES
RESPOND IN KIND WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S IN EASTERN
VERMONT, AND GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST. INDEED, MEAN 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD
SUGGEST EVEN MILDER READINGS UNDER A FULLY-MIXED/SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER,
PLENTY OF LINGERING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.

THEN CONTINUED QUITE MILD THURSDAY NIGHT AS JAMES BAY LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTHEAST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL LATE
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT IN GENERAL READINGS SHOULD HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. A
DECENT PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE FEED (PWATS TO 1.25 INCHES) AND FAIRLY
ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY,
ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER (60/70%) POPS FOR A PERIOD OF STEADIER
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
FOR MOST SPOTS. THIS WILL BE OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IN
SEVERAL MONTHS, A SURE SIGN THAT THE SLOW, STUMBLING PROGRESSION
INTO SPRING HAS FINALLY BEGUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AND BRINGING PRETTY LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES,
WINDS, AND PRECIPITATION TYPES. HONESTLY, THERE ARE SOME LARGE
FORECAST BUST POTENTIALS AT MANY POINTS OVER THE 5 DAY PERIOD, SO
DON`T CONSIDER ANY ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST TO BE A "DONE DEAL",
THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE CONSIDERABLE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE COMING
DAYS. HERE ARE SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS...

FRIDAY: WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, PROBABLY ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEPARATING VERY WARM AIR TO THE SOUTH AND MILD
AIR TO THE NORTH. SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL
SEE ON FRIDAY - THE GFS KEEPS IT CLOUDY, WHILE THE EURO CLEARS IT
OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE CLOUDIER AND COOLER
GFS, IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 50S AND
PERHAPS MAKE A RUN AT SOME LOWER 60S. THE EURO WOULD SUGGEST
POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 DEGREES. STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS AT THIS
POINT. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE LEVEL FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION, CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK.

FRIDAY NIGHT: A MORE POTENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT, AND BECOME WIDESPREAD.
SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF INTENSIFYING, THUS
TIGHTENING THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. LOOKS TO BE A RAIN SOUTH AND
A RAIN TO SNOW SITUATION IN THE NORTH. EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE
CHANGEOVERS WILL OCCUR WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDANT ON ELEVATION AND
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. STRONG FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM AS WELL, SO
A BURST OF MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIPITATION LATE NIGHT IS QUITE
LIKELY. WILL IT BE ALL SNOW? OR ALL RAIN? OR A MIX? THOSE ARE THE
QUESTIONS. AT THIS POINT, TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY TO PINPOINT
SNOWFALL TOTALS, BUT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
`DACKS.

SATURDAY: SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY PUSHES EAST AS IT INTENSIFIES.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMES IN, SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL END AS SNOW. COULD BE SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT AND NEW YORK.
GRADIENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP, SO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 40MPH RANGE, IF
THE STORM DEEPENS AS MUCH AS THE GFS INDICATES. THE ECMWF IS
WEAKER, BUT STILL A SIMILAR SITUATION.

SUNDAY: QUIETER THAN SATURDAY, AND ALSO COLD. FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW A TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH, AND ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SUNSHINE, WE`LL HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN ISOLATED FLURRIES/BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY REGIONS, 20S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
COLD IT WILL GET SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK HIGH WILL BE TO THE NORTH,
HOWEVER ANOTHER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH,
AND THIS COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME CLOUDS. MODELS WERE ALL OVER
THE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES -- RANGING FROM ROUGHLY 0 TO 20
DEGREES. STAYED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS AT THIS POINT.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: PROBABLY DRY FOR MONDAY, BUT FLOW ALOFT TURNS
SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STARTS TO GET GOING SO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND ULTIMATELY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.


LOOKING BEYOND, THERE ARE SOME HINTS FOR MID-WEEK THAT WE`LL HAVE
A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN AND RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES. WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SNOWMELT, ICE JAMS, AND SOME FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, A QUIET AVIATION PERIOD WITH VFR SKC CONDITIONS (SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12KFT AGL). WINDS NORTH 4-8 KTS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...LOCONTO/NASH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 312313
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
713 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS TREND UNSETTLED BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW.
A WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
MILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE COOLING SHARPLY BY THE COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 705 PM EDT TUESDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY
CHANGES WITH LATEST UPDATE WERE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS. OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH OFF DELMARVA COAST THIS
EVENING...LOOK FOR CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. THIS
COMBINATION WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. STILL LOOKING
AT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S...BUT SINGLE DIGITS IN NORMALLY
COLDER PORTIONS OF ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION FROM
SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK CLIPPER LOW WILL
PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BEING THE DOMINANT
INFLUENCE, MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE.
SEASONABLY CHILLY LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S STILL LOOK ON
TRACK, PERHAPS A FEW SINGLE DIGITS IN FAVORED COLDER HOLLOWS OF
THE DACKS/NE KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH THEN SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
DRY WEATHER. MODEL BLENDED 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE A TAD COOLER
TOMORROW AND APPEAR REASONABLE PER HYSPLIT 500M BACK TRAJECTORY
ANALYSIS. DID LEAN ON THE MILDER END OF GUIDANCE THOUGH (MID TO
UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS) GIVEN DEEPER PBL MIXING AND RECENT COOL
BIAS OF MOS OUTPUT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH SLIDES EAST WITH A
LIGHT RETURN FLOW AND A FAIRLY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT
ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION. THUS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
LATER AT NIGHT WITH LOWS 3 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT, BEING
ACHIEVED DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS
ARRIVE. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY/LIGHT SHSN ACROSS
THE SLV/FAR NRN NY LATE, BUT VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.

BY THURSDAY WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TRENDING QUITE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AS PARENT LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTH THROUGH THE JAMES BAY REGION. AGAIN, I CAN`T
RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT WITH BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING
MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER AND A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
TO ITS SOUTH QPF WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST WITH ONLY NOMINAL CHANCE POPS
OFFERED. WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPERATURES
RESPOND IN KIND WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S IN EASTERN
VERMONT, AND GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST. INDEED, MEAN 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD
SUGGEST EVEN MILDER READINGS UNDER A FULLY-MIXED/SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER,
PLENTY OF LINGERING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.

THEN CONTINUED QUITE MILD THURSDAY NIGHT AS JAMES BAY LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTHEAST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL LATE
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT IN GENERAL READINGS SHOULD HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. A
DECENT PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE FEED (PWATS TO 1.25 INCHES) AND FAIRLY
ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY,
ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER (60/70%) POPS FOR A PERIOD OF STEADIER
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
FOR MOST SPOTS. THIS WILL BE OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IN
SEVERAL MONTHS, A SURE SIGN THAT THE SLOW, STUMBLING PROGRESSION
INTO SPRING HAS FINALLY BEGUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AND BRINGING PRETTY LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES,
WINDS, AND PRECIPITATION TYPES. HONESTLY, THERE ARE SOME LARGE
FORECAST BUST POTENTIALS AT MANY POINTS OVER THE 5 DAY PERIOD, SO
DON`T CONSIDER ANY ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST TO BE A "DONE DEAL",
THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE CONSIDERABLE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE COMING
DAYS. HERE ARE SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS...

FRIDAY: WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, PROBABLY ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEPARATING VERY WARM AIR TO THE SOUTH AND MILD
AIR TO THE NORTH. SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL
SEE ON FRIDAY - THE GFS KEEPS IT CLOUDY, WHILE THE EURO CLEARS IT
OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE CLOUDIER AND COOLER
GFS, IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 50S AND
PERHAPS MAKE A RUN AT SOME LOWER 60S. THE EURO WOULD SUGGEST
POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 DEGREES. STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS AT THIS
POINT. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE LEVEL FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION, CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK.

FRIDAY NIGHT: A MORE POTENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT, AND BECOME WIDESPREAD.
SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF INTENSIFYING, THUS
TIGHTENING THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. LOOKS TO BE A RAIN SOUTH AND
A RAIN TO SNOW SITUATION IN THE NORTH. EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE
CHANGEOVERS WILL OCCUR WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDANT ON ELEVATION AND
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. STRONG FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM AS WELL, SO
A BURST OF MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIPITATION LATE NIGHT IS QUITE
LIKELY. WILL IT BE ALL SNOW? OR ALL RAIN? OR A MIX? THOSE ARE THE
QUESTIONS. AT THIS POINT, TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY TO PINPOINT
SNOWFALL TOTALS, BUT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
`DACKS.

SATURDAY: SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY PUSHES EAST AS IT INTENSIFIES.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMES IN, SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL END AS SNOW. COULD BE SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT AND NEW YORK.
GRADIENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP, SO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 40MPH RANGE, IF
THE STORM DEEPENS AS MUCH AS THE GFS INDICATES. THE ECMWF IS
WEAKER, BUT STILL A SIMILAR SITUATION.

SUNDAY: QUIETER THAN SATURDAY, AND ALSO COLD. FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW A TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH, AND ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SUNSHINE, WE`LL HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN ISOLATED FLURRIES/BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY REGIONS, 20S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
COLD IT WILL GET SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK HIGH WILL BE TO THE NORTH,
HOWEVER ANOTHER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH,
AND THIS COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME CLOUDS. MODELS WERE ALL OVER
THE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES -- RANGING FROM ROUGHLY 0 TO 20
DEGREES. STAYED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS AT THIS POINT.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: PROBABLY DRY FOR MONDAY, BUT FLOW ALOFT TURNS
SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STARTS TO GET GOING SO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND ULTIMATELY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.


LOOKING BEYOND, THERE ARE SOME HINTS FOR MID-WEEK THAT WE`LL HAVE
A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN AND RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES. WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SNOWMELT, ICE JAMS, AND SOME FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, A QUIET AVIATION PERIOD WITH VFR SKC CONDITIONS (SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12KFT AGL). WINDS NORTH 4-8 KTS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...LOCONTO/NASH



000
FXUS61 KBTV 312313
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
713 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS TREND UNSETTLED BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW.
A WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
MILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE COOLING SHARPLY BY THE COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 705 PM EDT TUESDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY
CHANGES WITH LATEST UPDATE WERE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS. OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH OFF DELMARVA COAST THIS
EVENING...LOOK FOR CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. THIS
COMBINATION WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. STILL LOOKING
AT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S...BUT SINGLE DIGITS IN NORMALLY
COLDER PORTIONS OF ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION FROM
SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK CLIPPER LOW WILL
PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BEING THE DOMINANT
INFLUENCE, MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE.
SEASONABLY CHILLY LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S STILL LOOK ON
TRACK, PERHAPS A FEW SINGLE DIGITS IN FAVORED COLDER HOLLOWS OF
THE DACKS/NE KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH THEN SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
DRY WEATHER. MODEL BLENDED 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE A TAD COOLER
TOMORROW AND APPEAR REASONABLE PER HYSPLIT 500M BACK TRAJECTORY
ANALYSIS. DID LEAN ON THE MILDER END OF GUIDANCE THOUGH (MID TO
UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS) GIVEN DEEPER PBL MIXING AND RECENT COOL
BIAS OF MOS OUTPUT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH SLIDES EAST WITH A
LIGHT RETURN FLOW AND A FAIRLY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT
ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION. THUS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
LATER AT NIGHT WITH LOWS 3 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT, BEING
ACHIEVED DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS
ARRIVE. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY/LIGHT SHSN ACROSS
THE SLV/FAR NRN NY LATE, BUT VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.

BY THURSDAY WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TRENDING QUITE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AS PARENT LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTH THROUGH THE JAMES BAY REGION. AGAIN, I CAN`T
RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT WITH BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING
MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER AND A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
TO ITS SOUTH QPF WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST WITH ONLY NOMINAL CHANCE POPS
OFFERED. WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPERATURES
RESPOND IN KIND WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S IN EASTERN
VERMONT, AND GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST. INDEED, MEAN 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD
SUGGEST EVEN MILDER READINGS UNDER A FULLY-MIXED/SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER,
PLENTY OF LINGERING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.

THEN CONTINUED QUITE MILD THURSDAY NIGHT AS JAMES BAY LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTHEAST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL LATE
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT IN GENERAL READINGS SHOULD HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. A
DECENT PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE FEED (PWATS TO 1.25 INCHES) AND FAIRLY
ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY,
ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER (60/70%) POPS FOR A PERIOD OF STEADIER
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
FOR MOST SPOTS. THIS WILL BE OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IN
SEVERAL MONTHS, A SURE SIGN THAT THE SLOW, STUMBLING PROGRESSION
INTO SPRING HAS FINALLY BEGUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AND BRINGING PRETTY LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES,
WINDS, AND PRECIPITATION TYPES. HONESTLY, THERE ARE SOME LARGE
FORECAST BUST POTENTIALS AT MANY POINTS OVER THE 5 DAY PERIOD, SO
DON`T CONSIDER ANY ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST TO BE A "DONE DEAL",
THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE CONSIDERABLE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE COMING
DAYS. HERE ARE SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS...

FRIDAY: WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, PROBABLY ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEPARATING VERY WARM AIR TO THE SOUTH AND MILD
AIR TO THE NORTH. SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL
SEE ON FRIDAY - THE GFS KEEPS IT CLOUDY, WHILE THE EURO CLEARS IT
OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE CLOUDIER AND COOLER
GFS, IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 50S AND
PERHAPS MAKE A RUN AT SOME LOWER 60S. THE EURO WOULD SUGGEST
POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 DEGREES. STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS AT THIS
POINT. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE LEVEL FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION, CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK.

FRIDAY NIGHT: A MORE POTENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT, AND BECOME WIDESPREAD.
SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF INTENSIFYING, THUS
TIGHTENING THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. LOOKS TO BE A RAIN SOUTH AND
A RAIN TO SNOW SITUATION IN THE NORTH. EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE
CHANGEOVERS WILL OCCUR WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDANT ON ELEVATION AND
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. STRONG FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM AS WELL, SO
A BURST OF MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIPITATION LATE NIGHT IS QUITE
LIKELY. WILL IT BE ALL SNOW? OR ALL RAIN? OR A MIX? THOSE ARE THE
QUESTIONS. AT THIS POINT, TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY TO PINPOINT
SNOWFALL TOTALS, BUT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
`DACKS.

SATURDAY: SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY PUSHES EAST AS IT INTENSIFIES.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMES IN, SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL END AS SNOW. COULD BE SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT AND NEW YORK.
GRADIENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP, SO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 40MPH RANGE, IF
THE STORM DEEPENS AS MUCH AS THE GFS INDICATES. THE ECMWF IS
WEAKER, BUT STILL A SIMILAR SITUATION.

SUNDAY: QUIETER THAN SATURDAY, AND ALSO COLD. FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW A TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH, AND ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SUNSHINE, WE`LL HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN ISOLATED FLURRIES/BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY REGIONS, 20S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
COLD IT WILL GET SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK HIGH WILL BE TO THE NORTH,
HOWEVER ANOTHER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH,
AND THIS COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME CLOUDS. MODELS WERE ALL OVER
THE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES -- RANGING FROM ROUGHLY 0 TO 20
DEGREES. STAYED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS AT THIS POINT.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: PROBABLY DRY FOR MONDAY, BUT FLOW ALOFT TURNS
SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STARTS TO GET GOING SO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND ULTIMATELY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.


LOOKING BEYOND, THERE ARE SOME HINTS FOR MID-WEEK THAT WE`LL HAVE
A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN AND RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES. WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SNOWMELT, ICE JAMS, AND SOME FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, A QUIET AVIATION PERIOD WITH VFR SKC CONDITIONS (SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12KFT AGL). WINDS NORTH 4-8 KTS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...LOCONTO/NASH



000
FXUS61 KBTV 312313
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
713 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS TREND UNSETTLED BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW.
A WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
MILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE COOLING SHARPLY BY THE COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 705 PM EDT TUESDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY
CHANGES WITH LATEST UPDATE WERE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS. OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH OFF DELMARVA COAST THIS
EVENING...LOOK FOR CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. THIS
COMBINATION WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. STILL LOOKING
AT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S...BUT SINGLE DIGITS IN NORMALLY
COLDER PORTIONS OF ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION FROM
SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK CLIPPER LOW WILL
PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BEING THE DOMINANT
INFLUENCE, MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE.
SEASONABLY CHILLY LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S STILL LOOK ON
TRACK, PERHAPS A FEW SINGLE DIGITS IN FAVORED COLDER HOLLOWS OF
THE DACKS/NE KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH THEN SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
DRY WEATHER. MODEL BLENDED 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE A TAD COOLER
TOMORROW AND APPEAR REASONABLE PER HYSPLIT 500M BACK TRAJECTORY
ANALYSIS. DID LEAN ON THE MILDER END OF GUIDANCE THOUGH (MID TO
UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS) GIVEN DEEPER PBL MIXING AND RECENT COOL
BIAS OF MOS OUTPUT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH SLIDES EAST WITH A
LIGHT RETURN FLOW AND A FAIRLY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT
ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION. THUS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
LATER AT NIGHT WITH LOWS 3 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT, BEING
ACHIEVED DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS
ARRIVE. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY/LIGHT SHSN ACROSS
THE SLV/FAR NRN NY LATE, BUT VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.

BY THURSDAY WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TRENDING QUITE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AS PARENT LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTH THROUGH THE JAMES BAY REGION. AGAIN, I CAN`T
RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT WITH BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING
MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER AND A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
TO ITS SOUTH QPF WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST WITH ONLY NOMINAL CHANCE POPS
OFFERED. WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPERATURES
RESPOND IN KIND WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S IN EASTERN
VERMONT, AND GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST. INDEED, MEAN 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD
SUGGEST EVEN MILDER READINGS UNDER A FULLY-MIXED/SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER,
PLENTY OF LINGERING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.

THEN CONTINUED QUITE MILD THURSDAY NIGHT AS JAMES BAY LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTHEAST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL LATE
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT IN GENERAL READINGS SHOULD HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. A
DECENT PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE FEED (PWATS TO 1.25 INCHES) AND FAIRLY
ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY,
ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER (60/70%) POPS FOR A PERIOD OF STEADIER
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
FOR MOST SPOTS. THIS WILL BE OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IN
SEVERAL MONTHS, A SURE SIGN THAT THE SLOW, STUMBLING PROGRESSION
INTO SPRING HAS FINALLY BEGUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AND BRINGING PRETTY LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES,
WINDS, AND PRECIPITATION TYPES. HONESTLY, THERE ARE SOME LARGE
FORECAST BUST POTENTIALS AT MANY POINTS OVER THE 5 DAY PERIOD, SO
DON`T CONSIDER ANY ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST TO BE A "DONE DEAL",
THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE CONSIDERABLE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE COMING
DAYS. HERE ARE SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS...

FRIDAY: WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, PROBABLY ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEPARATING VERY WARM AIR TO THE SOUTH AND MILD
AIR TO THE NORTH. SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL
SEE ON FRIDAY - THE GFS KEEPS IT CLOUDY, WHILE THE EURO CLEARS IT
OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE CLOUDIER AND COOLER
GFS, IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 50S AND
PERHAPS MAKE A RUN AT SOME LOWER 60S. THE EURO WOULD SUGGEST
POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 DEGREES. STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS AT THIS
POINT. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE LEVEL FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION, CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK.

FRIDAY NIGHT: A MORE POTENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT, AND BECOME WIDESPREAD.
SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF INTENSIFYING, THUS
TIGHTENING THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. LOOKS TO BE A RAIN SOUTH AND
A RAIN TO SNOW SITUATION IN THE NORTH. EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE
CHANGEOVERS WILL OCCUR WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDANT ON ELEVATION AND
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. STRONG FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM AS WELL, SO
A BURST OF MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIPITATION LATE NIGHT IS QUITE
LIKELY. WILL IT BE ALL SNOW? OR ALL RAIN? OR A MIX? THOSE ARE THE
QUESTIONS. AT THIS POINT, TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY TO PINPOINT
SNOWFALL TOTALS, BUT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
`DACKS.

SATURDAY: SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY PUSHES EAST AS IT INTENSIFIES.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMES IN, SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL END AS SNOW. COULD BE SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT AND NEW YORK.
GRADIENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP, SO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 40MPH RANGE, IF
THE STORM DEEPENS AS MUCH AS THE GFS INDICATES. THE ECMWF IS
WEAKER, BUT STILL A SIMILAR SITUATION.

SUNDAY: QUIETER THAN SATURDAY, AND ALSO COLD. FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW A TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH, AND ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SUNSHINE, WE`LL HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN ISOLATED FLURRIES/BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY REGIONS, 20S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
COLD IT WILL GET SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK HIGH WILL BE TO THE NORTH,
HOWEVER ANOTHER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH,
AND THIS COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME CLOUDS. MODELS WERE ALL OVER
THE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES -- RANGING FROM ROUGHLY 0 TO 20
DEGREES. STAYED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS AT THIS POINT.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: PROBABLY DRY FOR MONDAY, BUT FLOW ALOFT TURNS
SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STARTS TO GET GOING SO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND ULTIMATELY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.


LOOKING BEYOND, THERE ARE SOME HINTS FOR MID-WEEK THAT WE`LL HAVE
A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN AND RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES. WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SNOWMELT, ICE JAMS, AND SOME FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, A QUIET AVIATION PERIOD WITH VFR SKC CONDITIONS (SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12KFT AGL). WINDS NORTH 4-8 KTS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...LOCONTO/NASH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 312300
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
700 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS TREND UNSETTLED BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW.
A WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
MILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE COOLING SHARPLY BY THE COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO
THE REGION FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK
CLIPPER LOW WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
BEING THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE, MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL BE THE RULE. SEASONABLY CHILLY LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
STILL LOOK ON TRACK, PERHAPS A FEW SINGLE DIGITS IN FAVORED COLDER
HOLLOWS OF THE DACKS/NE KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH THEN SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
DRY WEATHER. MODEL BLENDED 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE A TAD COOLER
TOMORROW AND APPEAR REASONABLE PER HYSPLIT 500M BACK TRAJECTORY
ANALYSIS. DID LEAN ON THE MILDER END OF GUIDANCE THOUGH (MID TO
UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS) GIVEN DEEPER PBL MIXING AND RECENT COOL
BIAS OF MOS OUTPUT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH SLIDES EAST WITH A
LIGHT RETURN FLOW AND A FAIRLY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT
ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION. THUS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
LATER AT NIGHT WITH LOWS 3 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT, BEING
ACHIEVED DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS
ARRIVE. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY/LIGHT SHSN ACROSS
THE SLV/FAR NRN NY LATE, BUT VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.

BY THURSDAY WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TRENDING QUITE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AS PARENT LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTH THROUGH THE JAMES BAY REGION. AGAIN, I CAN`T
RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT WITH BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING
MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER AND A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
TO ITS SOUTH QPF WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST WITH ONLY NOMINAL CHANCE POPS
OFFERED. WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPERATURES
RESPOND IN KIND WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S IN EASTERN
VERMONT, AND GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST. INDEED, MEAN 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD
SUGGEST EVEN MILDER READINGS UNDER A FULLY-MIXED/SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER,
PLENTY OF LINGERING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.

THEN CONTINUED QUITE MILD THURSDAY NIGHT AS JAMES BAY LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTHEAST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL LATE
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT IN GENERAL READINGS SHOULD HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. A
DECENT PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE FEED (PWATS TO 1.25 INCHES) AND FAIRLY
ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY,
ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER (60/70%) POPS FOR A PERIOD OF STEADIER
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
FOR MOST SPOTS. THIS WILL BE OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IN
SEVERAL MONTHS, A SURE SIGN THAT THE SLOW, STUMBLING PROGRESSION
INTO SPRING HAS FINALLY BEGUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AND BRINGING PRETTY LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES,
WINDS, AND PRECIPITATION TYPES. HONESTLY, THERE ARE SOME LARGE
FORECAST BUST POTENTIALS AT MANY POINTS OVER THE 5 DAY PERIOD, SO
DON`T CONSIDER ANY ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST TO BE A "DONE DEAL",
THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE CONSIDERABLE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE COMING
DAYS. HERE ARE SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS...

FRIDAY: WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, PROBABLY ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEPARATING VERY WARM AIR TO THE SOUTH AND MILD
AIR TO THE NORTH. SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL
SEE ON FRIDAY - THE GFS KEEPS IT CLOUDY, WHILE THE EURO CLEARS IT
OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE CLOUDIER AND COOLER
GFS, IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 50S AND
PERHAPS MAKE A RUN AT SOME LOWER 60S. THE EURO WOULD SUGGEST
POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 DEGREES. STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS AT THIS
POINT. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE LEVEL FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION, CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK.

FRIDAY NIGHT: A MORE POTENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT, AND BECOME WIDESPREAD.
SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF INTENSIFYING, THUS
TIGHTENING THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. LOOKS TO BE A RAIN SOUTH AND
A RAIN TO SNOW SITUATION IN THE NORTH. EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE
CHANGEOVERS WILL OCCUR WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDANT ON ELEVATION AND
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. STRONG FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM AS WELL, SO
A BURST OF MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIPITATION LATE NIGHT IS QUITE
LIKELY. WILL IT BE ALL SNOW? OR ALL RAIN? OR A MIX? THOSE ARE THE
QUESTIONS. AT THIS POINT, TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY TO PINPOINT
SNOWFALL TOTALS, BUT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
`DACKS.

SATURDAY: SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY PUSHES EAST AS IT INTENSIFIES.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMES IN, SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL END AS SNOW. COULD BE SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT AND NEW YORK.
GRADIENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP, SO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 40MPH RANGE, IF
THE STORM DEEPENS AS MUCH AS THE GFS INDICATES. THE ECMWF IS
WEAKER, BUT STILL A SIMILAR SITUATION.

SUNDAY: QUIETER THAN SATURDAY, AND ALSO COLD. FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW A TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH, AND ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SUNSHINE, WE`LL HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN ISOLATED FLURRIES/BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY REGIONS, 20S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
COLD IT WILL GET SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK HIGH WILL BE TO THE NORTH,
HOWEVER ANOTHER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH,
AND THIS COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME CLOUDS. MODELS WERE ALL OVER
THE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES -- RANGING FROM ROUGHLY 0 TO 20
DEGREES. STAYED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS AT THIS POINT.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: PROBABLY DRY FOR MONDAY, BUT FLOW ALOFT TURNS
SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STARTS TO GET GOING SO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND ULTIMATELY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.


LOOKING BEYOND, THERE ARE SOME HINTS FOR MID-WEEK THAT WE`LL HAVE
A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN AND RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES. WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SNOWMELT, ICE JAMS, AND SOME FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, A QUIET AVIATION PERIOD WITH VFR SKC CONDITIONS (SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12KFT AGL). WINDS NORTH 4-8 KTS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...LOCONTO/NASH



000
FXUS61 KBTV 312300
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
700 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS TREND UNSETTLED BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW.
A WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
MILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE COOLING SHARPLY BY THE COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO
THE REGION FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK
CLIPPER LOW WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
BEING THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE, MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL BE THE RULE. SEASONABLY CHILLY LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
STILL LOOK ON TRACK, PERHAPS A FEW SINGLE DIGITS IN FAVORED COLDER
HOLLOWS OF THE DACKS/NE KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH THEN SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
DRY WEATHER. MODEL BLENDED 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE A TAD COOLER
TOMORROW AND APPEAR REASONABLE PER HYSPLIT 500M BACK TRAJECTORY
ANALYSIS. DID LEAN ON THE MILDER END OF GUIDANCE THOUGH (MID TO
UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS) GIVEN DEEPER PBL MIXING AND RECENT COOL
BIAS OF MOS OUTPUT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH SLIDES EAST WITH A
LIGHT RETURN FLOW AND A FAIRLY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT
ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION. THUS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
LATER AT NIGHT WITH LOWS 3 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT, BEING
ACHIEVED DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS
ARRIVE. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY/LIGHT SHSN ACROSS
THE SLV/FAR NRN NY LATE, BUT VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.

BY THURSDAY WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TRENDING QUITE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AS PARENT LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTH THROUGH THE JAMES BAY REGION. AGAIN, I CAN`T
RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT WITH BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING
MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER AND A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
TO ITS SOUTH QPF WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST WITH ONLY NOMINAL CHANCE POPS
OFFERED. WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPERATURES
RESPOND IN KIND WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S IN EASTERN
VERMONT, AND GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST. INDEED, MEAN 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD
SUGGEST EVEN MILDER READINGS UNDER A FULLY-MIXED/SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER,
PLENTY OF LINGERING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.

THEN CONTINUED QUITE MILD THURSDAY NIGHT AS JAMES BAY LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTHEAST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL LATE
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT IN GENERAL READINGS SHOULD HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. A
DECENT PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE FEED (PWATS TO 1.25 INCHES) AND FAIRLY
ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY,
ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER (60/70%) POPS FOR A PERIOD OF STEADIER
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
FOR MOST SPOTS. THIS WILL BE OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IN
SEVERAL MONTHS, A SURE SIGN THAT THE SLOW, STUMBLING PROGRESSION
INTO SPRING HAS FINALLY BEGUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AND BRINGING PRETTY LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES,
WINDS, AND PRECIPITATION TYPES. HONESTLY, THERE ARE SOME LARGE
FORECAST BUST POTENTIALS AT MANY POINTS OVER THE 5 DAY PERIOD, SO
DON`T CONSIDER ANY ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST TO BE A "DONE DEAL",
THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE CONSIDERABLE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE COMING
DAYS. HERE ARE SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS...

FRIDAY: WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, PROBABLY ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEPARATING VERY WARM AIR TO THE SOUTH AND MILD
AIR TO THE NORTH. SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL
SEE ON FRIDAY - THE GFS KEEPS IT CLOUDY, WHILE THE EURO CLEARS IT
OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE CLOUDIER AND COOLER
GFS, IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 50S AND
PERHAPS MAKE A RUN AT SOME LOWER 60S. THE EURO WOULD SUGGEST
POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 DEGREES. STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS AT THIS
POINT. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE LEVEL FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION, CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK.

FRIDAY NIGHT: A MORE POTENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT, AND BECOME WIDESPREAD.
SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF INTENSIFYING, THUS
TIGHTENING THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. LOOKS TO BE A RAIN SOUTH AND
A RAIN TO SNOW SITUATION IN THE NORTH. EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE
CHANGEOVERS WILL OCCUR WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDANT ON ELEVATION AND
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. STRONG FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM AS WELL, SO
A BURST OF MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIPITATION LATE NIGHT IS QUITE
LIKELY. WILL IT BE ALL SNOW? OR ALL RAIN? OR A MIX? THOSE ARE THE
QUESTIONS. AT THIS POINT, TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY TO PINPOINT
SNOWFALL TOTALS, BUT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
`DACKS.

SATURDAY: SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY PUSHES EAST AS IT INTENSIFIES.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMES IN, SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL END AS SNOW. COULD BE SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT AND NEW YORK.
GRADIENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP, SO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 40MPH RANGE, IF
THE STORM DEEPENS AS MUCH AS THE GFS INDICATES. THE ECMWF IS
WEAKER, BUT STILL A SIMILAR SITUATION.

SUNDAY: QUIETER THAN SATURDAY, AND ALSO COLD. FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW A TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH, AND ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SUNSHINE, WE`LL HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN ISOLATED FLURRIES/BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY REGIONS, 20S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
COLD IT WILL GET SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK HIGH WILL BE TO THE NORTH,
HOWEVER ANOTHER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH,
AND THIS COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME CLOUDS. MODELS WERE ALL OVER
THE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES -- RANGING FROM ROUGHLY 0 TO 20
DEGREES. STAYED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS AT THIS POINT.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: PROBABLY DRY FOR MONDAY, BUT FLOW ALOFT TURNS
SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STARTS TO GET GOING SO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND ULTIMATELY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.


LOOKING BEYOND, THERE ARE SOME HINTS FOR MID-WEEK THAT WE`LL HAVE
A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN AND RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES. WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SNOWMELT, ICE JAMS, AND SOME FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, A QUIET AVIATION PERIOD WITH VFR SKC CONDITIONS (SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12KFT AGL). WINDS NORTH 4-8 KTS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...LOCONTO/NASH



000
FXUS61 KBTV 312300
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
700 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS TREND UNSETTLED BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW.
A WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
MILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE COOLING SHARPLY BY THE COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO
THE REGION FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK
CLIPPER LOW WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
BEING THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE, MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL BE THE RULE. SEASONABLY CHILLY LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
STILL LOOK ON TRACK, PERHAPS A FEW SINGLE DIGITS IN FAVORED COLDER
HOLLOWS OF THE DACKS/NE KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH THEN SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
DRY WEATHER. MODEL BLENDED 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE A TAD COOLER
TOMORROW AND APPEAR REASONABLE PER HYSPLIT 500M BACK TRAJECTORY
ANALYSIS. DID LEAN ON THE MILDER END OF GUIDANCE THOUGH (MID TO
UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS) GIVEN DEEPER PBL MIXING AND RECENT COOL
BIAS OF MOS OUTPUT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH SLIDES EAST WITH A
LIGHT RETURN FLOW AND A FAIRLY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT
ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION. THUS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
LATER AT NIGHT WITH LOWS 3 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT, BEING
ACHIEVED DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS
ARRIVE. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY/LIGHT SHSN ACROSS
THE SLV/FAR NRN NY LATE, BUT VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.

BY THURSDAY WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TRENDING QUITE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AS PARENT LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTH THROUGH THE JAMES BAY REGION. AGAIN, I CAN`T
RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT WITH BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING
MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER AND A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
TO ITS SOUTH QPF WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST WITH ONLY NOMINAL CHANCE POPS
OFFERED. WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPERATURES
RESPOND IN KIND WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S IN EASTERN
VERMONT, AND GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST. INDEED, MEAN 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD
SUGGEST EVEN MILDER READINGS UNDER A FULLY-MIXED/SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER,
PLENTY OF LINGERING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.

THEN CONTINUED QUITE MILD THURSDAY NIGHT AS JAMES BAY LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTHEAST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL LATE
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT IN GENERAL READINGS SHOULD HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. A
DECENT PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE FEED (PWATS TO 1.25 INCHES) AND FAIRLY
ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY,
ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER (60/70%) POPS FOR A PERIOD OF STEADIER
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
FOR MOST SPOTS. THIS WILL BE OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IN
SEVERAL MONTHS, A SURE SIGN THAT THE SLOW, STUMBLING PROGRESSION
INTO SPRING HAS FINALLY BEGUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AND BRINGING PRETTY LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES,
WINDS, AND PRECIPITATION TYPES. HONESTLY, THERE ARE SOME LARGE
FORECAST BUST POTENTIALS AT MANY POINTS OVER THE 5 DAY PERIOD, SO
DON`T CONSIDER ANY ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST TO BE A "DONE DEAL",
THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE CONSIDERABLE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE COMING
DAYS. HERE ARE SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS...

FRIDAY: WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, PROBABLY ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEPARATING VERY WARM AIR TO THE SOUTH AND MILD
AIR TO THE NORTH. SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL
SEE ON FRIDAY - THE GFS KEEPS IT CLOUDY, WHILE THE EURO CLEARS IT
OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE CLOUDIER AND COOLER
GFS, IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 50S AND
PERHAPS MAKE A RUN AT SOME LOWER 60S. THE EURO WOULD SUGGEST
POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 DEGREES. STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS AT THIS
POINT. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE LEVEL FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION, CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK.

FRIDAY NIGHT: A MORE POTENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT, AND BECOME WIDESPREAD.
SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF INTENSIFYING, THUS
TIGHTENING THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. LOOKS TO BE A RAIN SOUTH AND
A RAIN TO SNOW SITUATION IN THE NORTH. EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE
CHANGEOVERS WILL OCCUR WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDANT ON ELEVATION AND
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. STRONG FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM AS WELL, SO
A BURST OF MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIPITATION LATE NIGHT IS QUITE
LIKELY. WILL IT BE ALL SNOW? OR ALL RAIN? OR A MIX? THOSE ARE THE
QUESTIONS. AT THIS POINT, TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY TO PINPOINT
SNOWFALL TOTALS, BUT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
`DACKS.

SATURDAY: SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY PUSHES EAST AS IT INTENSIFIES.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMES IN, SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL END AS SNOW. COULD BE SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT AND NEW YORK.
GRADIENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP, SO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 40MPH RANGE, IF
THE STORM DEEPENS AS MUCH AS THE GFS INDICATES. THE ECMWF IS
WEAKER, BUT STILL A SIMILAR SITUATION.

SUNDAY: QUIETER THAN SATURDAY, AND ALSO COLD. FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW A TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH, AND ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SUNSHINE, WE`LL HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN ISOLATED FLURRIES/BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY REGIONS, 20S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
COLD IT WILL GET SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK HIGH WILL BE TO THE NORTH,
HOWEVER ANOTHER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH,
AND THIS COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME CLOUDS. MODELS WERE ALL OVER
THE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES -- RANGING FROM ROUGHLY 0 TO 20
DEGREES. STAYED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS AT THIS POINT.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: PROBABLY DRY FOR MONDAY, BUT FLOW ALOFT TURNS
SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STARTS TO GET GOING SO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND ULTIMATELY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.


LOOKING BEYOND, THERE ARE SOME HINTS FOR MID-WEEK THAT WE`LL HAVE
A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN AND RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES. WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SNOWMELT, ICE JAMS, AND SOME FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, A QUIET AVIATION PERIOD WITH VFR SKC CONDITIONS (SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12KFT AGL). WINDS NORTH 4-8 KTS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...LOCONTO/NASH




000
FXUS61 KALY 312029
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
429 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW TRACKING EAST...AND WILL
SCRAPE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME
DUSTINGS OF WET SNOW IN SOME GRASSY AREAS BEFORE PRECIPITATION
EXITS THIS EVENING.THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER IS GRADUALLY
BUILDING SOUTH...AND CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COULD REINTRODUCE
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT NOT QUITE CALM...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY COULD. LOWS IN THE 20S
MOST AREAS...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INTERVALS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN EXIT QUICKLY. LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT. SO MIXING POTENTIAL WITH INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S...SOME 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS.

WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AND QUITE A TIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST
OF THE REGION. SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF BREAKING INTO A WARM
SECTOR...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND
STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE WELL INTO THE 50S...MAYBE AROUND 60 IN SOUTHERN AREAS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPING AND
ENHANCED MIXING...AS LONG AS THERE IS NO SURFACE BASED ONSHORE
FLOW.

IF SOME AREAS SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUN...SOME AREAS COULD GET
INTO THE 60S...WHILE IF THE WARMING IS DELAYED DUE TO SOME ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW...COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD RESULT.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY. NOT MUCH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE...EVEN WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO NOT INDICATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION IS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS
APPROACH. BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY SHOWERS...MAYBE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS THERE MAY
BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET
SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UNSETTLED AND
ACTIVE PATTERN AS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

REGARDING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MUCH OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS
MAXIMUM DYNAMICS ARE ACHIEVED THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG PIECE OF
NORTHERN STREAM PV ENERGY AND A DUAL UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH
THE FORECAST AREA BEING UNDERNEATH THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET. CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
GOING NEGATIVE-TILT...ENHANCING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOW-LEVELS AS
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TIGHTENS THE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.

HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING
TRANSITION TIMES IS STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME AS ALTHOUGH THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK GOING NORTHEAST UP INTERSTATE 88 AND OVER INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THERE STILL REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN
THE LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER COMPLICATING ISSUES WILL BE PRECIPITATION RATES...WHICH WILL
LIKELY FEATURE BURSTS OF OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT IN PLACE AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS THROWN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE TERRAIN
AND BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO LIKELY PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE AS WELL
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TIMES.

REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH THE THINKING THAT INITIALLY RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT. POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...PERHAPS
PLOWABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ELSEWHERE...PERHAPS A DUSTING TO ALMOST AN INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH A
CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND
THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...RESULTING IN A BLUSTERY AND GLOOMY DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH PRIMARILY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND SNOW DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. ANOTHER SPRAWLING STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO
MID 40S...RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY AND FROM THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S...WITH SOME LOW 40S ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS TO UPPER 30S...AND RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES FOR
THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z WEDNESDAY. AT KPOU...HAVE
FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z...WITH SOME RAIN ARRIVING
AROUND 19Z...THEN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z AS RAIN
CHANGES TO SNOW. AFTER 03Z...SOME MVFR POSSIBLE AT KPOU WITH FOG.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
WARM THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR.

MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN
65 AND 100 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 312004
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
404 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS TREND UNSETTLED BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW.
A WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
MILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE COOLING SHARPLY BY THE COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO
THE REGION FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK
CLIPPER LOW WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
BEING THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE, MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL BE THE RULE. SEASONABLY CHILLY LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
STILL LOOK ON TRACK, PERHAPS A FEW SINGLE DIGITS IN FAVORED COLDER
HOLLOWS OF THE DACKS/NE KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH THEN SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
DRY WEATHER. MODEL BLENDED 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE A TAD COOLER
TOMORROW AND APPEAR REASONABLE PER HYSPLIT 500M BACK TRAJECTORY
ANALYSIS. DID LEAN ON THE MILDER END OF GUIDANCE THOUGH (MID TO
UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS) GIVEN DEEPER PBL MIXING AND RECENT COOL
BIAS OF MOS OUTPUT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH SLIDES EAST WITH A
LIGHT RETURN FLOW AND A FAIRLY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT
ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION. THUS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
LATER AT NIGHT WITH LOWS 3 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT, BEING
ACHIEVED DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS
ARRIVE. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY/LIGHT SHSN ACROSS
THE SLV/FAR NRN NY LATE, BUT VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.

BY THURSDAY WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TRENDING QUITE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AS PARENT LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTH THROUGH THE JAMES BAY REGION. AGAIN, I CAN`T
RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT WITH BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING
MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER AND A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
TO ITS SOUTH QPF WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST WITH ONLY NOMINAL CHANCE POPS
OFFERED. WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPERATURES
RESPOND IN KIND WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S IN EASTERN
VERMONT, AND GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST. INDEED, MEAN 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD
SUGGEST EVEN MILDER READINGS UNDER A FULLY-MIXED/SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER,
PLENTY OF LINGERING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.

THEN CONTINUED QUITE MILD THURSDAY NIGHT AS JAMES BAY LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTHEAST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL LATE
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT IN GENERAL READINGS SHOULD HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. A
DECENT PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE FEED (PWATS TO 1.25 INCHES) AND FAIRLY
ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY,
ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER (60/70%) POPS FOR A PERIOD OF STEADIER
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
FOR MOST SPOTS. THIS WILL BE OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IN
SEVERAL MONTHS, A SURE SIGN THAT THE SLOW, STUMBLING PROGRESSION
INTO SPRING HAS FINALLY BEGUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AND BRINGING PRETTY LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES,
WINDS, AND PRECIPITATION TYPES. HONESTLY, THERE ARE SOME LARGE
FORECAST BUST POTENTIALS AT MANY POINTS OVER THE 5 DAY PERIOD, SO
DON`T CONSIDER ANY ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST TO BE A "DONE DEAL",
THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE CONSIDERABLE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE COMING
DAYS. HERE ARE SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS...

FRIDAY: WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, PROBABLY ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEPARATING VERY WARM AIR TO THE SOUTH AND MILD
AIR TO THE NORTH. SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL
SEE ON FRIDAY - THE GFS KEEPS IT CLOUDY, WHILE THE EURO CLEARS IT
OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE CLOUDIER AND COOLER
GFS, IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 50S AND
PERHAPS MAKE A RUN AT SOME LOWER 60S. THE EURO WOULD SUGGEST
POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 DEGREES. STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS AT THIS
POINT. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE LEVEL FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION, CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK.

FRIDAY NIGHT: A MORE POTENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT, AND BECOME WIDESPREAD.
SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF INTENSIFYING, THUS
TIGHTENING THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. LOOKS TO BE A RAIN SOUTH AND
A RAIN TO SNOW SITUATION IN THE NORTH. EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE
CHANGEOVERS WILL OCCUR WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDANT ON ELEVATION AND
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. STRONG FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM AS WELL, SO
A BURST OF MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIPITATION LATE NIGHT IS QUITE
LIKELY. WILL IT BE ALL SNOW? OR ALL RAIN? OR A MIX? THOSE ARE THE
QUESTIONS. AT THIS POINT, TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY TO PINPOINT
SNOWFALL TOTALS, BUT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
`DACKS.

SATURDAY: SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY PUSHES EAST AS IT INTENSIFIES.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMES IN, SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL END AS SNOW. COULD BE SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT AND NEW YORK.
GRADIENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP, SO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 40MPH RANGE, IF
THE STORM DEEPENS AS MUCH AS THE GFS INDICATES. THE ECMWF IS
WEAKER, BUT STILL A SIMILAR SITUATION.

SUNDAY: QUIETER THAN SATURDAY, AND ALSO COLD. FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW A TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH, AND ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SUNSHINE, WE`LL HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN ISOLATED FLURRIES/BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY REGIONS, 20S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
COLD IT WILL GET SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK HIGH WILL BE TO THE NORTH,
HOWEVER ANOTHER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH,
AND THIS COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME CLOUDS. MODELS WERE ALL OVER
THE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES -- RANGING FROM ROUGHLY 0 TO 20
DEGREES. STAYED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS AT THIS POINT.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: PROBABLY DRY FOR MONDAY, BUT FLOW ALOFT TURNS
SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STARTS TO GET GOING SO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND ULTIMATELY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.


LOOKING BEYOND, THERE ARE SOME HINTS FOR MID-WEEK THAT WE`LL HAVE
A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN AND RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES. WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SNOWMELT, ICE JAMS, AND SOME FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AREAWIDE NOW, THROUGH THE EVENING, ALL
OVERNIGHT AND FOR WEDNESDAY. SOME PATCHES OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
(ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN VERMONT), BUT OTHERWISE SKC. SURFACE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 5-12KT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THATS ABOUT ALL
THERE IS TO TALK ABOUT.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH



000
FXUS61 KBTV 312004
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
404 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS TREND UNSETTLED BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW.
A WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
MILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE COOLING SHARPLY BY THE COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO
THE REGION FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK
CLIPPER LOW WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
BEING THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE, MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL BE THE RULE. SEASONABLY CHILLY LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
STILL LOOK ON TRACK, PERHAPS A FEW SINGLE DIGITS IN FAVORED COLDER
HOLLOWS OF THE DACKS/NE KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH THEN SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
DRY WEATHER. MODEL BLENDED 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE A TAD COOLER
TOMORROW AND APPEAR REASONABLE PER HYSPLIT 500M BACK TRAJECTORY
ANALYSIS. DID LEAN ON THE MILDER END OF GUIDANCE THOUGH (MID TO
UPPER 30S IN MOST SPOTS) GIVEN DEEPER PBL MIXING AND RECENT COOL
BIAS OF MOS OUTPUT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH SLIDES EAST WITH A
LIGHT RETURN FLOW AND A FAIRLY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT
ADVANCING TOWARD THE REGION. THUS CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
LATER AT NIGHT WITH LOWS 3 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT, BEING
ACHIEVED DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS
ARRIVE. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY FLURRY/LIGHT SHSN ACROSS
THE SLV/FAR NRN NY LATE, BUT VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.

BY THURSDAY WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TRENDING QUITE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AS PARENT LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTH THROUGH THE JAMES BAY REGION. AGAIN, I CAN`T
RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY, BUT WITH BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING
MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER AND A CONTINUED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
TO ITS SOUTH QPF WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST WITH ONLY NOMINAL CHANCE POPS
OFFERED. WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPERATURES
RESPOND IN KIND WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S IN EASTERN
VERMONT, AND GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST. INDEED, MEAN 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD
SUGGEST EVEN MILDER READINGS UNDER A FULLY-MIXED/SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER,
PLENTY OF LINGERING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.

THEN CONTINUED QUITE MILD THURSDAY NIGHT AS JAMES BAY LOW
TRACKS FAR NORTHEAST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL LATE
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BUT IN GENERAL READINGS SHOULD HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. A
DECENT PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE FEED (PWATS TO 1.25 INCHES) AND FAIRLY
ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY,
ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGHER (60/70%) POPS FOR A PERIOD OF STEADIER
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
FOR MOST SPOTS. THIS WILL BE OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IN
SEVERAL MONTHS, A SURE SIGN THAT THE SLOW, STUMBLING PROGRESSION
INTO SPRING HAS FINALLY BEGUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AND BRINGING PRETTY LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES,
WINDS, AND PRECIPITATION TYPES. HONESTLY, THERE ARE SOME LARGE
FORECAST BUST POTENTIALS AT MANY POINTS OVER THE 5 DAY PERIOD, SO
DON`T CONSIDER ANY ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST TO BE A "DONE DEAL",
THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE CONSIDERABLE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE COMING
DAYS. HERE ARE SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS...

FRIDAY: WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, PROBABLY ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEPARATING VERY WARM AIR TO THE SOUTH AND MILD
AIR TO THE NORTH. SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL
SEE ON FRIDAY - THE GFS KEEPS IT CLOUDY, WHILE THE EURO CLEARS IT
OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE CLOUDIER AND COOLER
GFS, IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 50S AND
PERHAPS MAKE A RUN AT SOME LOWER 60S. THE EURO WOULD SUGGEST
POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 DEGREES. STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS AT THIS
POINT. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE LEVEL FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION, CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK.

FRIDAY NIGHT: A MORE POTENT LOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT, AND BECOME WIDESPREAD.
SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF INTENSIFYING, THUS
TIGHTENING THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. LOOKS TO BE A RAIN SOUTH AND
A RAIN TO SNOW SITUATION IN THE NORTH. EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE
CHANGEOVERS WILL OCCUR WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDANT ON ELEVATION AND
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. STRONG FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM AS WELL, SO
A BURST OF MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIPITATION LATE NIGHT IS QUITE
LIKELY. WILL IT BE ALL SNOW? OR ALL RAIN? OR A MIX? THOSE ARE THE
QUESTIONS. AT THIS POINT, TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRY TO PINPOINT
SNOWFALL TOTALS, BUT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
`DACKS.

SATURDAY: SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY PUSHES EAST AS IT INTENSIFIES.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMES IN, SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL END AS SNOW. COULD BE SOME DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT AND NEW YORK.
GRADIENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP, SO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE GUSTS IN THE 40MPH RANGE, IF
THE STORM DEEPENS AS MUCH AS THE GFS INDICATES. THE ECMWF IS
WEAKER, BUT STILL A SIMILAR SITUATION.

SUNDAY: QUIETER THAN SATURDAY, AND ALSO COLD. FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW A TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH, AND ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SUNSHINE, WE`LL HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN ISOLATED FLURRIES/BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO THE MID 30S IN
VALLEY REGIONS, 20S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
COLD IT WILL GET SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK HIGH WILL BE TO THE NORTH,
HOWEVER ANOTHER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH,
AND THIS COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME CLOUDS. MODELS WERE ALL OVER
THE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES -- RANGING FROM ROUGHLY 0 TO 20
DEGREES. STAYED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS AT THIS POINT.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: PROBABLY DRY FOR MONDAY, BUT FLOW ALOFT TURNS
SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STARTS TO GET GOING SO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND ULTIMATELY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.


LOOKING BEYOND, THERE ARE SOME HINTS FOR MID-WEEK THAT WE`LL HAVE
A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN AND RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES. WE WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR SNOWMELT, ICE JAMS, AND SOME FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AREAWIDE NOW, THROUGH THE EVENING, ALL
OVERNIGHT AND FOR WEDNESDAY. SOME PATCHES OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
(ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN VERMONT), BUT OTHERWISE SKC. SURFACE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 5-12KT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THATS ABOUT ALL
THERE IS TO TALK ABOUT.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH




000
FXUS61 KALY 311758
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
158 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL
WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE THE ALBANY AREA ITS FIRST 50
DEGREE DAY OF 2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 145 PM...ECHOES ON AREA RADARS SHOWING LARGER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION THAN SURFACE SENSORS. PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
GROUND EXTENDS NORTHWARD TO JUST NORTH OF THE NY/PA BORDER AND
EAST TO ABOUT THE PA/NJ BORDER. NEAREST REPORT OF SNOW AT
MONTICELLO NY IN SULLIVAN COUNTY WHERE LIGHT SNOW WAS FALLING.

TEMPERATURES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY ARE QUITE MILD WITH TEMPS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 40S. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS RAIN IN
THE VALLEY WITH SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
CATSKILLS. LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION...IT SHOULD JUST BE STARTING IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...AND HAS THE PRECIPITATION ENDING IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY BY 11 PM THIS
EVENING. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED NORTH OF
ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES.

LATEST UPDATE CONTAINS A FIRST GUESS FOR ALL MODEL FIELDS OUT TO
12Z FRIDAY INCLUDING FIRE WEATHER GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON
LINE...WILL MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OUT TO SEA. TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT AND CONTINUE TO COOL
FURTHER...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SNOW BY DARK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-84...MAYBE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS OF ULSTER COUNTY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE BUT EVEN IF IT HAPPENS...AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR
EVEN A SNOW ADVISORY. STILL...SOME ROADS COULD BECOME LOCALLY SLICK
THIS EVENING NEAR I-84.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THINNING CLOUDS
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL NORTHWEST BE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER ONE OF THE MAINLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A DEEP BLUE SKY. IT WILL
BE CHILLIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COACH
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...MID OR UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
WIND PERSISTING 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD FINALLY END OUR UNDER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT 96 DAYS. WHILE
THAT INTERVAL ITSELF IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE LONGEST SUCH
RECORD...IT WILL BE OUR SECOND LATEST DAY IN ANY GIVEN SEASON TO
OFFICIALLY REACH 50 OR HIGHER. WE ARE FORGETTING HIGHS IN THE MID
50S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THESE
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRINGLIKE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF (UNFORTUNATELY) ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 50 PERCENT.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE TRACK OF THE LOW. ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW
OVER ALBANY AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST...THEREBY KEEPING
CONDITIONS OVER THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA RATHER MILD AND PCPN
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNTIL NEARLY THE END OF THE EVENT. THE
GFS TRACKS THE LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WITH ENOUGH COOLING
OVER THE REGION FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING WIDESPREAD PCPN LIKELY...
HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR PCPN
TYPE...HAVE BLENDED THE TWO SOLUTIONS WHICH RESULTS IN UP TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND
A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN LOWER TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST...AND NO SNOW IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF
ALBANY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST
AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PCPN ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS ON SATURDAY...AND SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO THE 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 20S
TO LWOER 30S...EXCEPT THE TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS.

A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING DRY BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND TEENS ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LIGHT PCPN TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES FOR
THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z WEDNESDAY. AT KPOU...HAVE
FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH OOZ...WITH SOME RAIN ARRIVING
AROUND 19Z...THEN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN OOZ AND 03Z AS RAIN
CHANGES TO SNOW. AFTER 03Z...SOME MVFR POSSIBLE AT KPOU WITH FOG.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY.

WINDS GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL START OUT DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ABOUT KINGSTON SOUTH
WHERE A FAST MOVING ESE MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS VALLEY RAIN AND A SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DARK...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAPPENS...BUT
EVEN THERE BEFORE IT MOVES THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DROP
ABOUT ABOUT 60 PERCENT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VALUES 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SNOW OR RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING BY PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MEANS A FULL RECOVERY WILL
LIKELY NOT HAPPEN.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-15
MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW RANGE EXCEPT MODERATE RANGE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS ALL RAIN...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND/HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 311758
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
158 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL
WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE THE ALBANY AREA ITS FIRST 50
DEGREE DAY OF 2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 145 PM...ECHOES ON AREA RADARS SHOWING LARGER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION THAN SURFACE SENSORS. PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
GROUND EXTENDS NORTHWARD TO JUST NORTH OF THE NY/PA BORDER AND
EAST TO ABOUT THE PA/NJ BORDER. NEAREST REPORT OF SNOW AT
MONTICELLO NY IN SULLIVAN COUNTY WHERE LIGHT SNOW WAS FALLING.

TEMPERATURES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY ARE QUITE MILD WITH TEMPS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 40S. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS RAIN IN
THE VALLEY WITH SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
CATSKILLS. LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION...IT SHOULD JUST BE STARTING IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...AND HAS THE PRECIPITATION ENDING IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY BY 11 PM THIS
EVENING. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED NORTH OF
ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES.

LATEST UPDATE CONTAINS A FIRST GUESS FOR ALL MODEL FIELDS OUT TO
12Z FRIDAY INCLUDING FIRE WEATHER GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON
LINE...WILL MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OUT TO SEA. TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT AND CONTINUE TO COOL
FURTHER...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SNOW BY DARK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-84...MAYBE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS OF ULSTER COUNTY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE BUT EVEN IF IT HAPPENS...AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR
EVEN A SNOW ADVISORY. STILL...SOME ROADS COULD BECOME LOCALLY SLICK
THIS EVENING NEAR I-84.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THINNING CLOUDS
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL NORTHWEST BE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER ONE OF THE MAINLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A DEEP BLUE SKY. IT WILL
BE CHILLIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COACH
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...MID OR UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
WIND PERSISTING 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD FINALLY END OUR UNDER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT 96 DAYS. WHILE
THAT INTERVAL ITSELF IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE LONGEST SUCH
RECORD...IT WILL BE OUR SECOND LATEST DAY IN ANY GIVEN SEASON TO
OFFICIALLY REACH 50 OR HIGHER. WE ARE FORGETTING HIGHS IN THE MID
50S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THESE
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRINGLIKE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF (UNFORTUNATELY) ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 50 PERCENT.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE TRACK OF THE LOW. ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW
OVER ALBANY AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST...THEREBY KEEPING
CONDITIONS OVER THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA RATHER MILD AND PCPN
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNTIL NEARLY THE END OF THE EVENT. THE
GFS TRACKS THE LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WITH ENOUGH COOLING
OVER THE REGION FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING WIDESPREAD PCPN LIKELY...
HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR PCPN
TYPE...HAVE BLENDED THE TWO SOLUTIONS WHICH RESULTS IN UP TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND
A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN LOWER TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST...AND NO SNOW IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF
ALBANY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST
AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PCPN ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS ON SATURDAY...AND SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO THE 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 20S
TO LWOER 30S...EXCEPT THE TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS.

A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING DRY BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND TEENS ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LIGHT PCPN TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES FOR
THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z WEDNESDAY. AT KPOU...HAVE
FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH OOZ...WITH SOME RAIN ARRIVING
AROUND 19Z...THEN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN OOZ AND 03Z AS RAIN
CHANGES TO SNOW. AFTER 03Z...SOME MVFR POSSIBLE AT KPOU WITH FOG.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY.

WINDS GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL START OUT DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ABOUT KINGSTON SOUTH
WHERE A FAST MOVING ESE MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS VALLEY RAIN AND A SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DARK...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAPPENS...BUT
EVEN THERE BEFORE IT MOVES THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DROP
ABOUT ABOUT 60 PERCENT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VALUES 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SNOW OR RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING BY PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MEANS A FULL RECOVERY WILL
LIKELY NOT HAPPEN.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-15
MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW RANGE EXCEPT MODERATE RANGE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS ALL RAIN...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND/HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 311721
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
121 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 121 PM EDT TUESDAY...TWEAKED TEMPERATURES UPWARD 1-3
DEGREES BASED ON 17 UTC OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. REST OF
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY SHOWING SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TWO SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN WILL REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THUS DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EVENTUALLY THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WARMER AIR
MOVES IN WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH
A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE RAIN AND THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND RIDES
ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING SOME WET SNOW TO THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A MUCH WEAKER LOW
PASSING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGS JUST A
CHANCE FOR SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT.
THEN SOME DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
BEYOND THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WEATHER PATTERN
LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE. BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES
FOR THE PERIOD WITH SOME ABOVE AND SOME BELOW NORMAL READINGS.
THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FROM 72 THRU
180 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AREAWIDE NOW, THROUGH THE EVENING, ALL
OVERNIGHT AND FOR WEDNESDAY. SOME PATCHES OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
(ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN VERMONT), BUT OTHERWISE SKC. SURFACE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 5-12KT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THATS ABOUT ALL
THERE IS TO TALK ABOUT.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NASH



000
FXUS61 KBTV 311721
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
121 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 121 PM EDT TUESDAY...TWEAKED TEMPERATURES UPWARD 1-3
DEGREES BASED ON 17 UTC OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. REST OF
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY SHOWING SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TWO SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN WILL REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THUS DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EVENTUALLY THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WARMER AIR
MOVES IN WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH
A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE RAIN AND THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND RIDES
ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING SOME WET SNOW TO THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A MUCH WEAKER LOW
PASSING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGS JUST A
CHANCE FOR SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT.
THEN SOME DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
BEYOND THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WEATHER PATTERN
LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE. BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES
FOR THE PERIOD WITH SOME ABOVE AND SOME BELOW NORMAL READINGS.
THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FROM 72 THRU
180 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AREAWIDE NOW, THROUGH THE EVENING, ALL
OVERNIGHT AND FOR WEDNESDAY. SOME PATCHES OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
(ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN VERMONT), BUT OTHERWISE SKC. SURFACE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 5-12KT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THATS ABOUT ALL
THERE IS TO TALK ABOUT.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NASH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 311721
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
121 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 121 PM EDT TUESDAY...TWEAKED TEMPERATURES UPWARD 1-3
DEGREES BASED ON 17 UTC OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. REST OF
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY SHOWING SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TWO SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN WILL REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THUS DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EVENTUALLY THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WARMER AIR
MOVES IN WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH
A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE RAIN AND THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND RIDES
ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING SOME WET SNOW TO THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A MUCH WEAKER LOW
PASSING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGS JUST A
CHANCE FOR SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT.
THEN SOME DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
BEYOND THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WEATHER PATTERN
LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE. BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES
FOR THE PERIOD WITH SOME ABOVE AND SOME BELOW NORMAL READINGS.
THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FROM 72 THRU
180 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AREAWIDE NOW, THROUGH THE EVENING, ALL
OVERNIGHT AND FOR WEDNESDAY. SOME PATCHES OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
(ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN VERMONT), BUT OTHERWISE SKC. SURFACE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 5-12KT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THATS ABOUT ALL
THERE IS TO TALK ABOUT.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NASH



000
FXUS61 KBTV 311721
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
121 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 121 PM EDT TUESDAY...TWEAKED TEMPERATURES UPWARD 1-3
DEGREES BASED ON 17 UTC OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS. REST OF
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY SHOWING SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TWO SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN WILL REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THUS DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EVENTUALLY THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WARMER AIR
MOVES IN WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH
A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE RAIN AND THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND RIDES
ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING SOME WET SNOW TO THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A MUCH WEAKER LOW
PASSING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGS JUST A
CHANCE FOR SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT.
THEN SOME DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
BEYOND THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WEATHER PATTERN
LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE. BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES
FOR THE PERIOD WITH SOME ABOVE AND SOME BELOW NORMAL READINGS.
THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FROM 72 THRU
180 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AREAWIDE NOW, THROUGH THE EVENING, ALL
OVERNIGHT AND FOR WEDNESDAY. SOME PATCHES OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
(ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN VERMONT), BUT OTHERWISE SKC. SURFACE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 5-12KT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THATS ABOUT ALL
THERE IS TO TALK ABOUT.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NASH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 311720
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
120 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1017 AM EDT TUESDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO MATCH CURRENT SKY
COVER TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. ANY
LINGERING FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN SHOULD COME TO AN END ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS BY AFTERNOON AS SKIES TREND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY IN ALL
AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ON THE COOL SIDE, MAINLY IN THE
30S UNDER PERSISTENT, THOUGH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
HAVE A GREAT DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TWO SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN WILL REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THUS DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EVENTUALLY THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WARMER AIR
MOVES IN WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH
A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE RAIN AND THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND RIDES
ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING SOME WET SNOW TO THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A MUCH WEAKER LOW
PASSING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGS JUST A
CHANCE FOR SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT.
THEN SOME DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
BEYOND THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WEATHER PATTERN
LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE. BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES
FOR THE PERIOD WITH SOME ABOVE AND SOME BELOW NORMAL READINGS.
THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FROM 72 THRU
180 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AREAWIDE NOW, THROUGH THE EVENING, ALL
OVERNIGHT AND FOR WEDNESDAY. SOME PATCHES OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
(ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN VERMONT), BUT OTHERWISE SKC. SURFACE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 5-12KT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THATS ABOUT ALL
THERE IS TO TALK ABOUT.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NASH



000
FXUS61 KBTV 311720
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
120 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1017 AM EDT TUESDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO MATCH CURRENT SKY
COVER TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. ANY
LINGERING FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN SHOULD COME TO AN END ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS BY AFTERNOON AS SKIES TREND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY IN ALL
AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ON THE COOL SIDE, MAINLY IN THE
30S UNDER PERSISTENT, THOUGH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
HAVE A GREAT DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TWO SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN WILL REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THUS DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EVENTUALLY THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WARMER AIR
MOVES IN WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH
A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE RAIN AND THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND RIDES
ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING SOME WET SNOW TO THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A MUCH WEAKER LOW
PASSING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGS JUST A
CHANCE FOR SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT.
THEN SOME DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
BEYOND THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WEATHER PATTERN
LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE. BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES
FOR THE PERIOD WITH SOME ABOVE AND SOME BELOW NORMAL READINGS.
THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FROM 72 THRU
180 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AREAWIDE NOW, THROUGH THE EVENING, ALL
OVERNIGHT AND FOR WEDNESDAY. SOME PATCHES OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
(ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN VERMONT), BUT OTHERWISE SKC. SURFACE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 5-12KT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THATS ABOUT ALL
THERE IS TO TALK ABOUT.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NASH




000
FXUS61 KBTV 311720
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
120 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1017 AM EDT TUESDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO MATCH CURRENT SKY
COVER TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. ANY
LINGERING FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN SHOULD COME TO AN END ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS BY AFTERNOON AS SKIES TREND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY IN ALL
AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ON THE COOL SIDE, MAINLY IN THE
30S UNDER PERSISTENT, THOUGH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
HAVE A GREAT DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TWO SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN WILL REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THUS DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EVENTUALLY THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WARMER AIR
MOVES IN WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH
A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE RAIN AND THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND RIDES
ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING SOME WET SNOW TO THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A MUCH WEAKER LOW
PASSING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGS JUST A
CHANCE FOR SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT.
THEN SOME DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
BEYOND THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WEATHER PATTERN
LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE. BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES
FOR THE PERIOD WITH SOME ABOVE AND SOME BELOW NORMAL READINGS.
THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FROM 72 THRU
180 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AREAWIDE NOW, THROUGH THE EVENING, ALL
OVERNIGHT AND FOR WEDNESDAY. SOME PATCHES OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
(ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN VERMONT), BUT OTHERWISE SKC. SURFACE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 5-12KT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THATS ABOUT ALL
THERE IS TO TALK ABOUT.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NASH



000
FXUS61 KBTV 311720
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
120 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1017 AM EDT TUESDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO MATCH CURRENT SKY
COVER TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. ANY
LINGERING FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN SHOULD COME TO AN END ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS BY AFTERNOON AS SKIES TREND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY IN ALL
AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ON THE COOL SIDE, MAINLY IN THE
30S UNDER PERSISTENT, THOUGH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
HAVE A GREAT DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TWO SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN WILL REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THUS DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EVENTUALLY THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WARMER AIR
MOVES IN WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH
A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE RAIN AND THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND RIDES
ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING SOME WET SNOW TO THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A MUCH WEAKER LOW
PASSING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGS JUST A
CHANCE FOR SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT.
THEN SOME DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
BEYOND THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WEATHER PATTERN
LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE. BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES
FOR THE PERIOD WITH SOME ABOVE AND SOME BELOW NORMAL READINGS.
THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FROM 72 THRU
180 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AREAWIDE NOW, THROUGH THE EVENING, ALL
OVERNIGHT AND FOR WEDNESDAY. SOME PATCHES OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
(ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN VERMONT), BUT OTHERWISE SKC. SURFACE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 5-12KT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THATS ABOUT ALL
THERE IS TO TALK ABOUT.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR, THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY AND VT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER 25KT
POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

00Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN (MAINLY
FRIDAY) AND RAIN/SNOW (SATURDAY) ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SURFACE
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

00Z SUNDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NASH




000
FXUS61 KALY 311519
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1119 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR
AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
NEAR THE INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE
BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE THE ALBANY AREA
ITS FIRST 50 DEGREE DAY OF 2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1119 AM...UPDATE TO INITIALIZE CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALSO ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY UP 3-5 DEGREES AS SUNSHINE HAS WARMED BOUNDARY LAYER MORE
THAN EXPECTED AS CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO THICKEN IN ADVANCE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO OUR SOUTH.

STILL LOOKING FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO ARRIVE ACROSS FAR SOUTH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IT HAS NOW REACHED TO JUST SOUTH OF ELMIRA
NY. INITIALLY ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN IN THE
VALLEYS...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE ANY
PRECIPITATION STARTS AIR TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES. BY NIGHTFALL AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS...ALONG I-84 AND ALSO FAR SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY...WITH LITTLE OR NONE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FROM ABOUT KINGSTON NORTHWARD...CLOUDS WILL DIM THE SUN BUT IT
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH THIS MORNING...BECOMING
LIGHT AND NORTHERLY LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON
LINE...WILL MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OUT TO SEA. TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT AND CONTINUE TO COOL
FURTHER...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SNOW BY DARK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-84...MAYBE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS OF ULSTER COUNTY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE BUT EVEN IF IT HAPPENS...AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR
EVEN A SNOW ADVISORY. STILL...SOME ROADS COULD BECOME LOCALLY SLICK
THIS EVENING NEAR I-84.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THINNING CLOUDS
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL NORTHWEST BE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER ONE OF THE MAINLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A DEEP BLUE SKY. IT WILL
BE CHILLIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COACH
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...MID OR UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
WIND PERSISTING 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD FINALLY END OUR UNDER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT 96 DAYS. WHILE
THAT INTERVAL ITSELF IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE LONGEST SUCH
RECORD...IT WILL BE OUR SECOND LATEST DAY IN ANY GIVEN SEASON TO
OFFICIALLY REACH 50 OR HIGHER. WE ARE FORGETTING HIGHS IN THE MID
50S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THESE
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRINGLIKE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF (UNFORTUNATELY) ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 50 PERCENT.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE TRACK OF THE LOW. ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW
OVER ALBANY AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST...THEREBY KEEPING
CONDITIONS OVER THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA RATHER MILD AND PCPN
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNTIL NEARLY THE END OF THE EVENT. THE
GFS TRACKS THE LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WITH ENOUGH COOLING
OVER THE REGION FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING WIDESPREAD PCPN LIKELY...
HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR PCPN
TYPE...HAVE BLENDED THE TWO SOLUTIONS WHICH RESULTS IN UP TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND
A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN LOWER TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST...AND NO SNOW IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF
ALBANY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST
AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PCPN ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS ON SATURDAY...AND SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO THE 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 20S
TO LWOER 30S...EXCEPT THE TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS.

A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING DRY BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND TEENS ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LIGHT PCPN TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WILL LIKELY
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KPOU TAF SITE...BUT WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES.

HAVE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KPSF DUE TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT
15Z. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FLURRY AT KALB/KPSF THIS MORNING.

AT KPOU...HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
AFTER 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE
COAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL START OUT DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ABOUT KINGSTON SOUTH
WHERE A FAST MOVING ESE MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS VALLEY RAIN AND A SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DARK...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAPPENS...BUT
EVEN THERE BEFORE IT MOVES THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DROP
ABOUT ABOUT 60 PERCENT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VALUES 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SNOW OR RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING BY PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MEANS A FULL RECOVERY WILL
LIKELY NOT HAPPEN.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-15
MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW RANGE EXCEPT MODERATE RANGE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS ALL RAIN...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND/HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 311519
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1119 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR
AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
NEAR THE INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE
BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE THE ALBANY AREA
ITS FIRST 50 DEGREE DAY OF 2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1119 AM...UPDATE TO INITIALIZE CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALSO ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY UP 3-5 DEGREES AS SUNSHINE HAS WARMED BOUNDARY LAYER MORE
THAN EXPECTED AS CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO THICKEN IN ADVANCE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO OUR SOUTH.

STILL LOOKING FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO ARRIVE ACROSS FAR SOUTH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IT HAS NOW REACHED TO JUST SOUTH OF ELMIRA
NY. INITIALLY ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN IN THE
VALLEYS...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE ANY
PRECIPITATION STARTS AIR TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES. BY NIGHTFALL AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS...ALONG I-84 AND ALSO FAR SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY...WITH LITTLE OR NONE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FROM ABOUT KINGSTON NORTHWARD...CLOUDS WILL DIM THE SUN BUT IT
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH THIS MORNING...BECOMING
LIGHT AND NORTHERLY LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON
LINE...WILL MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OUT TO SEA. TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT AND CONTINUE TO COOL
FURTHER...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SNOW BY DARK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-84...MAYBE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS OF ULSTER COUNTY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE BUT EVEN IF IT HAPPENS...AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR
EVEN A SNOW ADVISORY. STILL...SOME ROADS COULD BECOME LOCALLY SLICK
THIS EVENING NEAR I-84.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THINNING CLOUDS
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL NORTHWEST BE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER ONE OF THE MAINLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A DEEP BLUE SKY. IT WILL
BE CHILLIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COACH
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...MID OR UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
WIND PERSISTING 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD FINALLY END OUR UNDER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT 96 DAYS. WHILE
THAT INTERVAL ITSELF IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE LONGEST SUCH
RECORD...IT WILL BE OUR SECOND LATEST DAY IN ANY GIVEN SEASON TO
OFFICIALLY REACH 50 OR HIGHER. WE ARE FORGETTING HIGHS IN THE MID
50S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THESE
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRINGLIKE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF (UNFORTUNATELY) ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 50 PERCENT.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE TRACK OF THE LOW. ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW
OVER ALBANY AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST...THEREBY KEEPING
CONDITIONS OVER THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA RATHER MILD AND PCPN
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNTIL NEARLY THE END OF THE EVENT. THE
GFS TRACKS THE LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WITH ENOUGH COOLING
OVER THE REGION FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING WIDESPREAD PCPN LIKELY...
HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR PCPN
TYPE...HAVE BLENDED THE TWO SOLUTIONS WHICH RESULTS IN UP TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND
A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN LOWER TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST...AND NO SNOW IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF
ALBANY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST
AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PCPN ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS ON SATURDAY...AND SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO THE 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 20S
TO LWOER 30S...EXCEPT THE TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS.

A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING DRY BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND TEENS ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LIGHT PCPN TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WILL LIKELY
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KPOU TAF SITE...BUT WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES.

HAVE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KPSF DUE TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT
15Z. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FLURRY AT KALB/KPSF THIS MORNING.

AT KPOU...HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
AFTER 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE
COAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL START OUT DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ABOUT KINGSTON SOUTH
WHERE A FAST MOVING ESE MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS VALLEY RAIN AND A SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DARK...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAPPENS...BUT
EVEN THERE BEFORE IT MOVES THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DROP
ABOUT ABOUT 60 PERCENT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VALUES 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SNOW OR RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING BY PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MEANS A FULL RECOVERY WILL
LIKELY NOT HAPPEN.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-15
MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW RANGE EXCEPT MODERATE RANGE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS ALL RAIN...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND/HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 311417
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1017 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1017 AM EDT TUESDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO MATCH CURRENT SKY
COVER TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. ANY
LINGERING FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN SHOULD COME TO AN END ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS BY AFTERNOON AS SKIES TREND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY IN ALL
AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ON THE COOL SIDE, MAINLY IN THE
30S UNDER PERSISTENT, THOUGH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
HAVE A GREAT DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TWO SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN WILL REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THUS DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EVENTUALLY THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WARMER AIR
MOVES IN WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH
A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE RAIN AND THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND RIDES
ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING SOME WET SNOW TO THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A MUCH WEAKER LOW
PASSING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGS JUST A
CHANCE FOR SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT.
THEN SOME DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
BEYOND THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WEATHER PATTERN
LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE. BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES
FOR THE PERIOD WITH SOME ABOVE AND SOME BELOW NORMAL READINGS.
THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FROM 72 THRU
180 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ENDED
ACROSS THE AREA. ALL SITES ARE NOW VFR. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. BKN/OVC CEILINGS WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BECOME SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR/SCT IFR POSSIBLE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. INDICATIONS OF SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WITH LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD WITH MVFR/IFR IMPLICATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 311417
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1017 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1017 AM EDT TUESDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO MATCH CURRENT SKY
COVER TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. ANY
LINGERING FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN SHOULD COME TO AN END ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS BY AFTERNOON AS SKIES TREND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY IN ALL
AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ON THE COOL SIDE, MAINLY IN THE
30S UNDER PERSISTENT, THOUGH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
HAVE A GREAT DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TWO SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN WILL REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THUS DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EVENTUALLY THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WARMER AIR
MOVES IN WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH
A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE RAIN AND THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND RIDES
ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING SOME WET SNOW TO THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A MUCH WEAKER LOW
PASSING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGS JUST A
CHANCE FOR SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT.
THEN SOME DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
BEYOND THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WEATHER PATTERN
LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE. BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES
FOR THE PERIOD WITH SOME ABOVE AND SOME BELOW NORMAL READINGS.
THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FROM 72 THRU
180 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ENDED
ACROSS THE AREA. ALL SITES ARE NOW VFR. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. BKN/OVC CEILINGS WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BECOME SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR/SCT IFR POSSIBLE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. INDICATIONS OF SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WITH LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD WITH MVFR/IFR IMPLICATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 311417
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1017 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1017 AM EDT TUESDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO MATCH CURRENT SKY
COVER TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. ANY
LINGERING FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN SHOULD COME TO AN END ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS BY AFTERNOON AS SKIES TREND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY IN ALL
AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ON THE COOL SIDE, MAINLY IN THE
30S UNDER PERSISTENT, THOUGH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
HAVE A GREAT DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TWO SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN WILL REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THUS DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EVENTUALLY THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WARMER AIR
MOVES IN WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH
A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE RAIN AND THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND RIDES
ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING SOME WET SNOW TO THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A MUCH WEAKER LOW
PASSING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGS JUST A
CHANCE FOR SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT.
THEN SOME DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
BEYOND THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WEATHER PATTERN
LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE. BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES
FOR THE PERIOD WITH SOME ABOVE AND SOME BELOW NORMAL READINGS.
THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FROM 72 THRU
180 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ENDED
ACROSS THE AREA. ALL SITES ARE NOW VFR. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. BKN/OVC CEILINGS WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BECOME SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR/SCT IFR POSSIBLE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. INDICATIONS OF SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WITH LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD WITH MVFR/IFR IMPLICATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 311417
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1017 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1017 AM EDT TUESDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO MATCH CURRENT SKY
COVER TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. ANY
LINGERING FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN SHOULD COME TO AN END ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS BY AFTERNOON AS SKIES TREND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY IN ALL
AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ON THE COOL SIDE, MAINLY IN THE
30S UNDER PERSISTENT, THOUGH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
HAVE A GREAT DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TWO SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN WILL REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THUS DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EVENTUALLY THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WARMER AIR
MOVES IN WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH
A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE RAIN AND THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND RIDES
ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING SOME WET SNOW TO THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A MUCH WEAKER LOW
PASSING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGS JUST A
CHANCE FOR SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT.
THEN SOME DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
BEYOND THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WEATHER PATTERN
LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE. BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES
FOR THE PERIOD WITH SOME ABOVE AND SOME BELOW NORMAL READINGS.
THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FROM 72 THRU
180 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ENDED
ACROSS THE AREA. ALL SITES ARE NOW VFR. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. BKN/OVC CEILINGS WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BECOME SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR/SCT IFR POSSIBLE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. INDICATIONS OF SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WITH LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD WITH MVFR/IFR IMPLICATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 311417
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1017 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1017 AM EDT TUESDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO MATCH CURRENT SKY
COVER TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. ANY
LINGERING FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN SHOULD COME TO AN END ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS BY AFTERNOON AS SKIES TREND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY IN ALL
AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ON THE COOL SIDE, MAINLY IN THE
30S UNDER PERSISTENT, THOUGH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
HAVE A GREAT DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TWO SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN WILL REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THUS DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EVENTUALLY THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WARMER AIR
MOVES IN WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH
A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE RAIN AND THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND RIDES
ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING SOME WET SNOW TO THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A MUCH WEAKER LOW
PASSING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGS JUST A
CHANCE FOR SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT.
THEN SOME DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
BEYOND THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WEATHER PATTERN
LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE. BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES
FOR THE PERIOD WITH SOME ABOVE AND SOME BELOW NORMAL READINGS.
THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FROM 72 THRU
180 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ENDED
ACROSS THE AREA. ALL SITES ARE NOW VFR. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. BKN/OVC CEILINGS WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BECOME SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR/SCT IFR POSSIBLE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. INDICATIONS OF SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WITH LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD WITH MVFR/IFR IMPLICATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KALY 311321
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
921 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR
AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
NEAR THE INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE
BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFF AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE THE ALBANY AREA ITS FIRST 50
DEGREE DAY OF 2015 ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 921 AM...MUCH OF OUR REMAINS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOW
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONIC COLD ADVECTION ARE SLOWLY
DISSIPATING WHILE HIGH CLOUDS FROM LOW PRESSURE...NOW OVER
OHIO...MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE
MID 20 TO LOW 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE LOW 40S IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY.

STILL LOOKING FOR PRECIPITATION TO ARRIVE ACROSS FAR SOUTH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. IT HAS NOW REACHED TO JUST WEST OF ELMIRA NY. INITIALLY
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN IN THE VALLEYS...AND A
RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE ANY PRECIPITATION
STARTS AIR TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL SEVERAL DEGREES. BY
NIGHTFALL AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS...ALONG I-84 AND ALSO FAR SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD
COUNTY...WITH LITTLE OR NONE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FROM ABOUT KINGSTON NORTHWARD...CLOUDS WILL DIM THE SUN BUT IT LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH THIS MORNING...BECOMING
LIGHT AND NORTHERLY LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON
LINE...WILL MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OUT TO SEA. TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT AND CONTINUE TO COOL
FURTHER...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SNOW BY DARK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-84...MAYBE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS OF ULSTER COUNTY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE BUT EVEN IF IT HAPPENS...AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR
EVEN A SNOW ADVISORY. STILL...SOME ROADS COULD BECOME LOCALLY SLICK
THIS EVENING NEAR I-84.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THINNING CLOUDS
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL NORTHWEST BE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER ONE OF THE MAINLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A DEEP BLUE SKY. IT WILL
BE CHILLIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COACH
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...MID OR UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
WIND PERSISTING 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD FINALLY END OUR UNDER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT 96 DAYS. WHILE
THAT INTERVAL ITSELF IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE LONGEST SUCH
RECORD...IT WILL BE OUR SECOND LATEST DAY IN ANY GIVEN SEASON TO
OFFICIALLY REACH 50 OR HIGHER. WE ARE FORGETTING HIGHS IN THE MID
50S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THESE
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRINGLIKE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF (UNFORTUNATELY) ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 50 PERCENT.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE TRACK OF THE LOW. ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW
OVER ALBANY AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST...THEREBY KEEPING
CONDITIONS OVER THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA RATHER MILD AND PCPN
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNTIL NEARLY THE END OF THE EVENT. THE
GFS TRACKS THE LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WITH ENOUGH COOLING
OVER THE REGION FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING WIDESPREAD PCPN LIKELY...
HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR PCPN
TYPE...HAVE BLENDED THE TWO SOLUTIONS WHICH RESULTS IN UP TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND
A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN LOWER TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST...AND NO SNOW IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF
ALBANY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST
AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PCPN ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS ON SATURDAY...AND SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO THE 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 20S
TO LWOER 30S...EXCEPT THE TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS.

A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING DRY BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND TEENS ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LIGHT PCPN TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WILL LIKELY
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KPOU TAF SITE...BUT WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES.

HAVE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KPSF DUE TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT
15Z. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FLURRY AT KALB/KPSF THIS MORNING.

AT KPOU...HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
AFTER 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE
COAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL START OUT DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ABOUT KINGSTON SOUTH
WHERE A FAST MOVING ESE MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS VALLEY RAIN AND A SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DARK...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAPPENS...BUT
EVEN THERE BEFORE IT MOVES THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DROP
ABOUT ABOUT 60 PERCENT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VALUES 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SNOW OR RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING BY PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MEANS A FULL RECOVERY WILL
LIKELY NOT HAPPEN.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-15
MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW RANGE EXCEPT MODERATE RANGE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS ALL RAIN...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 311321
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
921 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR
AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY...INCLUDING SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
NEAR THE INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE
BUT COOL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFF AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE THE ALBANY AREA ITS FIRST 50
DEGREE DAY OF 2015 ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 921 AM...MUCH OF OUR REMAINS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOW
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONIC COLD ADVECTION ARE SLOWLY
DISSIPATING WHILE HIGH CLOUDS FROM LOW PRESSURE...NOW OVER
OHIO...MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE
MID 20 TO LOW 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE LOW 40S IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY.

STILL LOOKING FOR PRECIPITATION TO ARRIVE ACROSS FAR SOUTH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. IT HAS NOW REACHED TO JUST WEST OF ELMIRA NY. INITIALLY
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN IN THE VALLEYS...AND A
RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE ANY PRECIPITATION
STARTS AIR TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL SEVERAL DEGREES. BY
NIGHTFALL AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS...ALONG I-84 AND ALSO FAR SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD
COUNTY...WITH LITTLE OR NONE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FROM ABOUT KINGSTON NORTHWARD...CLOUDS WILL DIM THE SUN BUT IT LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 15-20 MPH THIS MORNING...BECOMING
LIGHT AND NORTHERLY LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON
LINE...WILL MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OUT TO SEA. TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT AND CONTINUE TO COOL
FURTHER...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SNOW BY DARK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-84...MAYBE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS OF ULSTER COUNTY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE BUT EVEN IF IT HAPPENS...AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR
EVEN A SNOW ADVISORY. STILL...SOME ROADS COULD BECOME LOCALLY SLICK
THIS EVENING NEAR I-84.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THINNING CLOUDS
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL NORTHWEST BE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER ONE OF THE MAINLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A DEEP BLUE SKY. IT WILL
BE CHILLIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COACH
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...MID OR UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
WIND PERSISTING 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD FINALLY END OUR UNDER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT 96 DAYS. WHILE
THAT INTERVAL ITSELF IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE LONGEST SUCH
RECORD...IT WILL BE OUR SECOND LATEST DAY IN ANY GIVEN SEASON TO
OFFICIALLY REACH 50 OR HIGHER. WE ARE FORGETTING HIGHS IN THE MID
50S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THESE
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRINGLIKE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF (UNFORTUNATELY) ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 50 PERCENT.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE TRACK OF THE LOW. ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW
OVER ALBANY AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST...THEREBY KEEPING
CONDITIONS OVER THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA RATHER MILD AND PCPN
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNTIL NEARLY THE END OF THE EVENT. THE
GFS TRACKS THE LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WITH ENOUGH COOLING
OVER THE REGION FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING WIDESPREAD PCPN LIKELY...
HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR PCPN
TYPE...HAVE BLENDED THE TWO SOLUTIONS WHICH RESULTS IN UP TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND
A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN LOWER TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST...AND NO SNOW IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF
ALBANY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST
AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PCPN ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS ON SATURDAY...AND SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO THE 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 20S
TO LWOER 30S...EXCEPT THE TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS.

A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING DRY BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND TEENS ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LIGHT PCPN TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WILL LIKELY
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KPOU TAF SITE...BUT WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES.

HAVE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KPSF DUE TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT
15Z. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FLURRY AT KALB/KPSF THIS MORNING.

AT KPOU...HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
AFTER 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE
COAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL START OUT DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ABOUT KINGSTON SOUTH
WHERE A FAST MOVING ESE MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS VALLEY RAIN AND A SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DARK...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAPPENS...BUT
EVEN THERE BEFORE IT MOVES THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DROP
ABOUT ABOUT 60 PERCENT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VALUES 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SNOW OR RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING BY PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MEANS A FULL RECOVERY WILL
LIKELY NOT HAPPEN.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-15
MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW RANGE EXCEPT MODERATE RANGE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS ALL RAIN...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 311144
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
744 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 744 AM EDT TUESDAY...REAL QUICK UPDATE TO START ERODING THE
CLOUD COVER A BIT FASTER BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS. OTHERWISE...
REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE FOR DRIER WEATHER TODAY
ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TWO SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN WILL REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THUS DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EVENTUALLY THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WARMER AIR
MOVES IN WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH
A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE RAIN AND THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND RIDES
ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING SOME WET SNOW TO THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A MUCH WEAKER LOW
PASSING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGS JUST A
CHANCE FOR SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT.
THEN SOME DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
BEYOND THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WEATHER PATTERN
LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE. BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES
FOR THE PERIOD WITH SOME ABOVE AND SOME BELOW NORMAL READINGS.
THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FROM 72 THRU
180 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ENDED
ACROSS THE AREA. ALL SITES ARE NOW VFR. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. BKN/OVC CEILINGS WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BECOME SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR/SCT IFR POSSIBLE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. INDICATIONS OF SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WITH LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD WITH MVFR/IFR IMPLICATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 311144
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
744 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 744 AM EDT TUESDAY...REAL QUICK UPDATE TO START ERODING THE
CLOUD COVER A BIT FASTER BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS. OTHERWISE...
REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE FOR DRIER WEATHER TODAY
ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TWO SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN WILL REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THUS DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EVENTUALLY THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WARMER AIR
MOVES IN WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH
A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE RAIN AND THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND RIDES
ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING SOME WET SNOW TO THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A MUCH WEAKER LOW
PASSING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGS JUST A
CHANCE FOR SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT.
THEN SOME DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
BEYOND THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WEATHER PATTERN
LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE. BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES
FOR THE PERIOD WITH SOME ABOVE AND SOME BELOW NORMAL READINGS.
THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FROM 72 THRU
180 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ENDED
ACROSS THE AREA. ALL SITES ARE NOW VFR. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. BKN/OVC CEILINGS WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BECOME SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR/SCT IFR POSSIBLE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. INDICATIONS OF SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WITH LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD WITH MVFR/IFR IMPLICATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 311144
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
744 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 744 AM EDT TUESDAY...REAL QUICK UPDATE TO START ERODING THE
CLOUD COVER A BIT FASTER BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS. OTHERWISE...
REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE FOR DRIER WEATHER TODAY
ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TWO SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN WILL REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THUS DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EVENTUALLY THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WARMER AIR
MOVES IN WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH
A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE RAIN AND THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND RIDES
ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING SOME WET SNOW TO THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A MUCH WEAKER LOW
PASSING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGS JUST A
CHANCE FOR SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT.
THEN SOME DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
BEYOND THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WEATHER PATTERN
LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE. BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES
FOR THE PERIOD WITH SOME ABOVE AND SOME BELOW NORMAL READINGS.
THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FROM 72 THRU
180 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ENDED
ACROSS THE AREA. ALL SITES ARE NOW VFR. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. BKN/OVC CEILINGS WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BECOME SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR/SCT IFR POSSIBLE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. INDICATIONS OF SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WITH LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD WITH MVFR/IFR IMPLICATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 311144
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
744 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 744 AM EDT TUESDAY...REAL QUICK UPDATE TO START ERODING THE
CLOUD COVER A BIT FASTER BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS. OTHERWISE...
REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE FOR DRIER WEATHER TODAY
ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TWO SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN WILL REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THUS DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EVENTUALLY THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WARMER AIR
MOVES IN WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH
A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE RAIN AND THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND RIDES
ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING SOME WET SNOW TO THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A MUCH WEAKER LOW
PASSING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGS JUST A
CHANCE FOR SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT.
THEN SOME DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
BEYOND THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WEATHER PATTERN
LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE. BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES
FOR THE PERIOD WITH SOME ABOVE AND SOME BELOW NORMAL READINGS.
THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FROM 72 THRU
180 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ENDED
ACROSS THE AREA. ALL SITES ARE NOW VFR. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. BKN/OVC CEILINGS WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BECOME SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR/SCT IFR POSSIBLE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. INDICATIONS OF SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WITH LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD WITH MVFR/IFR IMPLICATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 311138
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
738 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 637 AM EDT TUESDAY...OTHER THAN A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWING A SHARP BACK
EDGE TO THE CLOUDS IS MOVING INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
VERTICAL DEPTH OF THE CLOUDS HAS DIMINISHED AS WELL...WHICH WILL
LIMIT THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH JUST A TWEAK TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AS CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TWO SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN WILL REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THUS DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EVENTUALLY THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WARMER AIR
MOVES IN WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH
A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE RAIN AND THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND RIDES
ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING SOME WET SNOW TO THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A MUCH WEAKER LOW
PASSING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGS JUST A
CHANCE FOR SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT.
THEN SOME DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
BEYOND THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WEATHER PATTERN
LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE. BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES
FOR THE PERIOD WITH SOME ABOVE AND SOME BELOW NORMAL READINGS.
THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FROM 72 THRU
180 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ENDED
ACROSS THE AREA. ALL SITES ARE NOW VFR. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. BKN/OVC CEILINGS WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BECOME SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR/SCT IFR POSSIBLE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. INDICATIONS OF SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WITH LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD WITH MVFR/IFR IMPLICATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 311138
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
738 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 637 AM EDT TUESDAY...OTHER THAN A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWING A SHARP BACK
EDGE TO THE CLOUDS IS MOVING INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
VERTICAL DEPTH OF THE CLOUDS HAS DIMINISHED AS WELL...WHICH WILL
LIMIT THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH JUST A TWEAK TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AS CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TWO SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN WILL REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THUS DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EVENTUALLY THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WARMER AIR
MOVES IN WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH
A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE RAIN AND THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND RIDES
ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING SOME WET SNOW TO THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A MUCH WEAKER LOW
PASSING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGS JUST A
CHANCE FOR SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT.
THEN SOME DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
BEYOND THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WEATHER PATTERN
LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE. BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES
FOR THE PERIOD WITH SOME ABOVE AND SOME BELOW NORMAL READINGS.
THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FROM 72 THRU
180 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ENDED
ACROSS THE AREA. ALL SITES ARE NOW VFR. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. BKN/OVC CEILINGS WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BECOME SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR/SCT IFR POSSIBLE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. INDICATIONS OF SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WITH LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD WITH MVFR/IFR IMPLICATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 311138
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
738 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 637 AM EDT TUESDAY...OTHER THAN A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWING A SHARP BACK
EDGE TO THE CLOUDS IS MOVING INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
VERTICAL DEPTH OF THE CLOUDS HAS DIMINISHED AS WELL...WHICH WILL
LIMIT THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH JUST A TWEAK TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AS CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TWO SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN WILL REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THUS DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EVENTUALLY THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WARMER AIR
MOVES IN WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH
A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE RAIN AND THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND RIDES
ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING SOME WET SNOW TO THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A MUCH WEAKER LOW
PASSING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGS JUST A
CHANCE FOR SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT.
THEN SOME DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
BEYOND THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WEATHER PATTERN
LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE. BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES
FOR THE PERIOD WITH SOME ABOVE AND SOME BELOW NORMAL READINGS.
THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FROM 72 THRU
180 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ENDED
ACROSS THE AREA. ALL SITES ARE NOW VFR. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. BKN/OVC CEILINGS WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BECOME SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR/SCT IFR POSSIBLE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. INDICATIONS OF SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WITH LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD WITH MVFR/IFR IMPLICATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 311138
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
738 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 637 AM EDT TUESDAY...OTHER THAN A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWING A SHARP BACK
EDGE TO THE CLOUDS IS MOVING INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
VERTICAL DEPTH OF THE CLOUDS HAS DIMINISHED AS WELL...WHICH WILL
LIMIT THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH JUST A TWEAK TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AS CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TWO SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN WILL REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THUS DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EVENTUALLY THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WARMER AIR
MOVES IN WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH
A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE RAIN AND THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND RIDES
ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING SOME WET SNOW TO THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A MUCH WEAKER LOW
PASSING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGS JUST A
CHANCE FOR SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT.
THEN SOME DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
BEYOND THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WEATHER PATTERN
LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE. BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES
FOR THE PERIOD WITH SOME ABOVE AND SOME BELOW NORMAL READINGS.
THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FROM 72 THRU
180 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ENDED
ACROSS THE AREA. ALL SITES ARE NOW VFR. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. BKN/OVC CEILINGS WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BECOME SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR/SCT IFR POSSIBLE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. INDICATIONS OF SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WITH LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD WITH MVFR/IFR IMPLICATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 311138
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
738 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 637 AM EDT TUESDAY...OTHER THAN A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWING A SHARP BACK
EDGE TO THE CLOUDS IS MOVING INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
VERTICAL DEPTH OF THE CLOUDS HAS DIMINISHED AS WELL...WHICH WILL
LIMIT THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH JUST A TWEAK TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AS CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TWO SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN WILL REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THUS DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EVENTUALLY THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WARMER AIR
MOVES IN WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH
A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE RAIN AND THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND RIDES
ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING SOME WET SNOW TO THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A MUCH WEAKER LOW
PASSING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGS JUST A
CHANCE FOR SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT.
THEN SOME DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
BEYOND THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WEATHER PATTERN
LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE. BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES
FOR THE PERIOD WITH SOME ABOVE AND SOME BELOW NORMAL READINGS.
THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FROM 72 THRU
180 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ENDED
ACROSS THE AREA. ALL SITES ARE NOW VFR. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. BKN/OVC CEILINGS WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BECOME SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR/SCT IFR POSSIBLE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. INDICATIONS OF SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WITH LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD WITH MVFR/IFR IMPLICATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 311138
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
738 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 637 AM EDT TUESDAY...OTHER THAN A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWING A SHARP BACK
EDGE TO THE CLOUDS IS MOVING INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
VERTICAL DEPTH OF THE CLOUDS HAS DIMINISHED AS WELL...WHICH WILL
LIMIT THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH JUST A TWEAK TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AS CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TWO SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN WILL REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THUS DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EVENTUALLY THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WARMER AIR
MOVES IN WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH
A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE RAIN AND THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND RIDES
ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING SOME WET SNOW TO THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A MUCH WEAKER LOW
PASSING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGS JUST A
CHANCE FOR SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT.
THEN SOME DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
BEYOND THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WEATHER PATTERN
LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE. BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES
FOR THE PERIOD WITH SOME ABOVE AND SOME BELOW NORMAL READINGS.
THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FROM 72 THRU
180 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ENDED
ACROSS THE AREA. ALL SITES ARE NOW VFR. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. BKN/OVC CEILINGS WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BECOME SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR/SCT IFR POSSIBLE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. INDICATIONS OF SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WITH LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD WITH MVFR/IFR IMPLICATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KALY 311049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
649 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...INCLUDING SOME POSSIBLE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL
WEATHER WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFF AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE THE ALBANY AREA ITS FIRST OFFICIAL 50
PLUS DEGREE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS IF 630 AM EDT...ACTUALLY A FEW FLURRIES STILL BE DETECTED ON
RADAR...PROBABLY SOME RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT. THESE WILL NOT LAST TOO
MUCH LONGER...BUT INTRODUCED THEM INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NO
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS BATCH.

MEANWHILE...A BATCH OF PRECIPITATON...MOSTLY SNOW WAS WORKING INTO
SW NY AND NW PA...AS A LOW PRESSURE AREAS WAS TRACKING ESE IN NORTH
CENTRAL PA.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...ADDED SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SOME MORE
CLOUDS...EARLY BOTH OF WHICH LOOK TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING.

AFTER WE LOOSE THE LAKE EFFECT..SOME SUNSHINE PREVAIL...BEFORE
QUICKLY BEING FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO WORK INTO OUR SOUTHWESTER AREAS
AREAS WELL AFTER NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER
TERRAIN SO INITIALLY ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN IN
THE VALLEYS...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE ANY
PRECIPITATION STARTS...WHICH SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR...AIR TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES. BY NIGHTFALL UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS WITH LITTLE OR NONE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FROM ABOUT KINGSTON NORTHWARD...CLOUDS WILL DIM THE SUN BUT IT LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...EXCEPT BECOMING LIGHT
NORTHERLY WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON
LINE...WILL MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OUT TO SEA. TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT AND CONTINUE TO COOL
FURTHER...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SNOW BY DARK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-84...MAYBE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS OF ULSTER COUNTY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE BUT EVEN IF IT HAPPENS...AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR
EVEN A SNOW ADVISORY. STILL...SOME ROADS COULD BECOME LOCALLY SLICK
THIS EVENING NEAR I-84.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THINNING CLOUDS
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL NORTHWEST BE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER ONE OF THE MAINLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A DEEP BLUE SKY. IT WILL
BE CHILLIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COACH
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...MID OR UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
WIND PERSISTING 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD FINALLY END OUR UNDER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT 96 DAYS. WHILE
THAT INTERVAL ITSELF IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE LONGEST SUCH
RECORD...IT WILL BE OUR SECOND LATEST DAY IN ANY GIVEN SEASON TO
OFFICIALLY REACH 50 OR HIGHER. WE ARE FORGETTING HIGHS IN THE MID
50S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THESE
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRINGLIKE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF (UNFORTUNATELY) ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 50 PERCENT.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE TRACK OF THE LOW. ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW
OVER ALBANY AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST...THEREBY KEEPING
CONDITIONS OVER THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA RATHER MILD AND PCPN
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNTIL NEARLY THE END OF THE EVENT. THE
GFS TRACKS THE LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WITH ENOUGH COOLING
OVER THE REGION FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING WIDESPREAD PCPN LIKELY...
HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR PCPN
TYPE...HAVE BLENDED THE TWO SOLUTIONS WHICH RESULTS IN UP TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND
A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN LOWER TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST...AND NO SNOW IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF
ALBANY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST
AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PCPN ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS ON SATURDAY...AND SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO THE 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 20S
TO LWOER 30S...EXCEPT THE TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS.

A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING DRY BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND TEENS ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LIGHT PCPN TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WILL LIKELY
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KPOU TAF SITE...BUT WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES.

HAVE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KPSF DUE TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT
15Z. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FLURRY AT KALB/KPSF THIS MORNING.

AT KPOU...HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
AFTER 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE
COAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL START OUT DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ABOUT KINGSTON SOUTH
WHERE A FAST MOVING ESE MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS VALLEY RAIN AND A SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DARK...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAPPENS...BUT
EVEN THERE BEFORE IT MOVES THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DROP
ABOUT ABOUT 60 PERCENT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VALUES 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SNOW OR RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING BY PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MEANS A FULL RECOVERY WILL
LIKELY NOT HAPPEN.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-15
MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW RANGE EXCEPT MODERATE RANGE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS ALL RAIN...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 311049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
649 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...INCLUDING SOME POSSIBLE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL
WEATHER WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFF AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE THE ALBANY AREA ITS FIRST OFFICIAL 50
PLUS DEGREE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS IF 630 AM EDT...ACTUALLY A FEW FLURRIES STILL BE DETECTED ON
RADAR...PROBABLY SOME RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT. THESE WILL NOT LAST TOO
MUCH LONGER...BUT INTRODUCED THEM INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NO
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS BATCH.

MEANWHILE...A BATCH OF PRECIPITATON...MOSTLY SNOW WAS WORKING INTO
SW NY AND NW PA...AS A LOW PRESSURE AREAS WAS TRACKING ESE IN NORTH
CENTRAL PA.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...ADDED SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SOME MORE
CLOUDS...EARLY BOTH OF WHICH LOOK TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING.

AFTER WE LOOSE THE LAKE EFFECT..SOME SUNSHINE PREVAIL...BEFORE
QUICKLY BEING FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO WORK INTO OUR SOUTHWESTER AREAS
AREAS WELL AFTER NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER
TERRAIN SO INITIALLY ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN IN
THE VALLEYS...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE ANY
PRECIPITATION STARTS...WHICH SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR...AIR TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES. BY NIGHTFALL UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS WITH LITTLE OR NONE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FROM ABOUT KINGSTON NORTHWARD...CLOUDS WILL DIM THE SUN BUT IT LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...EXCEPT BECOMING LIGHT
NORTHERLY WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON
LINE...WILL MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OUT TO SEA. TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT AND CONTINUE TO COOL
FURTHER...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SNOW BY DARK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-84...MAYBE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS OF ULSTER COUNTY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE BUT EVEN IF IT HAPPENS...AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR
EVEN A SNOW ADVISORY. STILL...SOME ROADS COULD BECOME LOCALLY SLICK
THIS EVENING NEAR I-84.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THINNING CLOUDS
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL NORTHWEST BE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER ONE OF THE MAINLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A DEEP BLUE SKY. IT WILL
BE CHILLIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COACH
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...MID OR UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
WIND PERSISTING 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD FINALLY END OUR UNDER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT 96 DAYS. WHILE
THAT INTERVAL ITSELF IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE LONGEST SUCH
RECORD...IT WILL BE OUR SECOND LATEST DAY IN ANY GIVEN SEASON TO
OFFICIALLY REACH 50 OR HIGHER. WE ARE FORGETTING HIGHS IN THE MID
50S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THESE
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRINGLIKE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF (UNFORTUNATELY) ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 50 PERCENT.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE TRACK OF THE LOW. ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW
OVER ALBANY AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST...THEREBY KEEPING
CONDITIONS OVER THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA RATHER MILD AND PCPN
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNTIL NEARLY THE END OF THE EVENT. THE
GFS TRACKS THE LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WITH ENOUGH COOLING
OVER THE REGION FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING WIDESPREAD PCPN LIKELY...
HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR PCPN
TYPE...HAVE BLENDED THE TWO SOLUTIONS WHICH RESULTS IN UP TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND
A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN LOWER TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST...AND NO SNOW IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF
ALBANY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST
AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PCPN ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS ON SATURDAY...AND SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO THE 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 20S
TO LWOER 30S...EXCEPT THE TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS.

A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING DRY BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND TEENS ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LIGHT PCPN TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WILL LIKELY
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KPOU TAF SITE...BUT WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES.

HAVE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KPSF DUE TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT
15Z. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FLURRY AT KALB/KPSF THIS MORNING.

AT KPOU...HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
AFTER 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE
COAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL START OUT DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ABOUT KINGSTON SOUTH
WHERE A FAST MOVING ESE MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS VALLEY RAIN AND A SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DARK...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAPPENS...BUT
EVEN THERE BEFORE IT MOVES THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DROP
ABOUT ABOUT 60 PERCENT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VALUES 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SNOW OR RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING BY PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MEANS A FULL RECOVERY WILL
LIKELY NOT HAPPEN.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-15
MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW RANGE EXCEPT MODERATE RANGE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS ALL RAIN...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 311049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
649 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...INCLUDING SOME POSSIBLE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL
WEATHER WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFF AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE THE ALBANY AREA ITS FIRST OFFICIAL 50
PLUS DEGREE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS IF 630 AM EDT...ACTUALLY A FEW FLURRIES STILL BE DETECTED ON
RADAR...PROBABLY SOME RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT. THESE WILL NOT LAST TOO
MUCH LONGER...BUT INTRODUCED THEM INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NO
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS BATCH.

MEANWHILE...A BATCH OF PRECIPITATON...MOSTLY SNOW WAS WORKING INTO
SW NY AND NW PA...AS A LOW PRESSURE AREAS WAS TRACKING ESE IN NORTH
CENTRAL PA.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...ADDED SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SOME MORE
CLOUDS...EARLY BOTH OF WHICH LOOK TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING.

AFTER WE LOOSE THE LAKE EFFECT..SOME SUNSHINE PREVAIL...BEFORE
QUICKLY BEING FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO WORK INTO OUR SOUTHWESTER AREAS
AREAS WELL AFTER NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER
TERRAIN SO INITIALLY ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN IN
THE VALLEYS...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE ANY
PRECIPITATION STARTS...WHICH SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR...AIR TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES. BY NIGHTFALL UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS WITH LITTLE OR NONE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FROM ABOUT KINGSTON NORTHWARD...CLOUDS WILL DIM THE SUN BUT IT LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...EXCEPT BECOMING LIGHT
NORTHERLY WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON
LINE...WILL MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OUT TO SEA. TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT AND CONTINUE TO COOL
FURTHER...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SNOW BY DARK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-84...MAYBE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS OF ULSTER COUNTY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE BUT EVEN IF IT HAPPENS...AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR
EVEN A SNOW ADVISORY. STILL...SOME ROADS COULD BECOME LOCALLY SLICK
THIS EVENING NEAR I-84.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THINNING CLOUDS
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL NORTHWEST BE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER ONE OF THE MAINLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A DEEP BLUE SKY. IT WILL
BE CHILLIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COACH
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...MID OR UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
WIND PERSISTING 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD FINALLY END OUR UNDER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT 96 DAYS. WHILE
THAT INTERVAL ITSELF IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE LONGEST SUCH
RECORD...IT WILL BE OUR SECOND LATEST DAY IN ANY GIVEN SEASON TO
OFFICIALLY REACH 50 OR HIGHER. WE ARE FORGETTING HIGHS IN THE MID
50S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THESE
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRINGLIKE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF (UNFORTUNATELY) ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 50 PERCENT.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE TRACK OF THE LOW. ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW
OVER ALBANY AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST...THEREBY KEEPING
CONDITIONS OVER THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA RATHER MILD AND PCPN
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNTIL NEARLY THE END OF THE EVENT. THE
GFS TRACKS THE LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WITH ENOUGH COOLING
OVER THE REGION FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING WIDESPREAD PCPN LIKELY...
HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR PCPN
TYPE...HAVE BLENDED THE TWO SOLUTIONS WHICH RESULTS IN UP TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND
A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN LOWER TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST...AND NO SNOW IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF
ALBANY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST
AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PCPN ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS ON SATURDAY...AND SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO THE 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 20S
TO LWOER 30S...EXCEPT THE TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS.

A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING DRY BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND TEENS ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LIGHT PCPN TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WILL LIKELY
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KPOU TAF SITE...BUT WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES.

HAVE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KPSF DUE TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT
15Z. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FLURRY AT KALB/KPSF THIS MORNING.

AT KPOU...HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
AFTER 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE
COAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL START OUT DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ABOUT KINGSTON SOUTH
WHERE A FAST MOVING ESE MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS VALLEY RAIN AND A SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DARK...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAPPENS...BUT
EVEN THERE BEFORE IT MOVES THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DROP
ABOUT ABOUT 60 PERCENT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VALUES 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SNOW OR RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING BY PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MEANS A FULL RECOVERY WILL
LIKELY NOT HAPPEN.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-15
MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW RANGE EXCEPT MODERATE RANGE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS ALL RAIN...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 311049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
649 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...INCLUDING SOME POSSIBLE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL
WEATHER WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFF AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE THE ALBANY AREA ITS FIRST OFFICIAL 50
PLUS DEGREE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS IF 630 AM EDT...ACTUALLY A FEW FLURRIES STILL BE DETECTED ON
RADAR...PROBABLY SOME RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT. THESE WILL NOT LAST TOO
MUCH LONGER...BUT INTRODUCED THEM INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NO
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS BATCH.

MEANWHILE...A BATCH OF PRECIPITATON...MOSTLY SNOW WAS WORKING INTO
SW NY AND NW PA...AS A LOW PRESSURE AREAS WAS TRACKING ESE IN NORTH
CENTRAL PA.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...ADDED SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SOME MORE
CLOUDS...EARLY BOTH OF WHICH LOOK TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING.

AFTER WE LOOSE THE LAKE EFFECT..SOME SUNSHINE PREVAIL...BEFORE
QUICKLY BEING FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO WORK INTO OUR SOUTHWESTER AREAS
AREAS WELL AFTER NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER
TERRAIN SO INITIALLY ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN IN
THE VALLEYS...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE ANY
PRECIPITATION STARTS...WHICH SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR...AIR TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES. BY NIGHTFALL UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS WITH LITTLE OR NONE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FROM ABOUT KINGSTON NORTHWARD...CLOUDS WILL DIM THE SUN BUT IT LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...EXCEPT BECOMING LIGHT
NORTHERLY WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON
LINE...WILL MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OUT TO SEA. TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT AND CONTINUE TO COOL
FURTHER...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SNOW BY DARK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-84...MAYBE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS OF ULSTER COUNTY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE BUT EVEN IF IT HAPPENS...AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR
EVEN A SNOW ADVISORY. STILL...SOME ROADS COULD BECOME LOCALLY SLICK
THIS EVENING NEAR I-84.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THINNING CLOUDS
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL NORTHWEST BE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER ONE OF THE MAINLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A DEEP BLUE SKY. IT WILL
BE CHILLIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COACH
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...MID OR UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
WIND PERSISTING 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD FINALLY END OUR UNDER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT 96 DAYS. WHILE
THAT INTERVAL ITSELF IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE LONGEST SUCH
RECORD...IT WILL BE OUR SECOND LATEST DAY IN ANY GIVEN SEASON TO
OFFICIALLY REACH 50 OR HIGHER. WE ARE FORGETTING HIGHS IN THE MID
50S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THESE
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRINGLIKE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF (UNFORTUNATELY) ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 50 PERCENT.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE TRACK OF THE LOW. ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW
OVER ALBANY AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST...THEREBY KEEPING
CONDITIONS OVER THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA RATHER MILD AND PCPN
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNTIL NEARLY THE END OF THE EVENT. THE
GFS TRACKS THE LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WITH ENOUGH COOLING
OVER THE REGION FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING WIDESPREAD PCPN LIKELY...
HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR PCPN
TYPE...HAVE BLENDED THE TWO SOLUTIONS WHICH RESULTS IN UP TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND
A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN LOWER TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST...AND NO SNOW IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF
ALBANY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST
AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PCPN ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS ON SATURDAY...AND SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO THE 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 20S
TO LWOER 30S...EXCEPT THE TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS.

A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING DRY BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND TEENS ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LIGHT PCPN TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WILL LIKELY
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KPOU TAF SITE...BUT WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES.

HAVE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KPSF DUE TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT
15Z. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FLURRY AT KALB/KPSF THIS MORNING.

AT KPOU...HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
AFTER 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE
COAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL START OUT DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ABOUT KINGSTON SOUTH
WHERE A FAST MOVING ESE MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS VALLEY RAIN AND A SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DARK...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAPPENS...BUT
EVEN THERE BEFORE IT MOVES THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DROP
ABOUT ABOUT 60 PERCENT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VALUES 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SNOW OR RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING BY PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MEANS A FULL RECOVERY WILL
LIKELY NOT HAPPEN.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-15
MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW RANGE EXCEPT MODERATE RANGE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS ALL RAIN...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 311049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
649 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...INCLUDING SOME POSSIBLE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL
WEATHER WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFF AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE THE ALBANY AREA ITS FIRST OFFICIAL 50
PLUS DEGREE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS IF 630 AM EDT...ACTUALLY A FEW FLURRIES STILL BE DETECTED ON
RADAR...PROBABLY SOME RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT. THESE WILL NOT LAST TOO
MUCH LONGER...BUT INTRODUCED THEM INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NO
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS BATCH.

MEANWHILE...A BATCH OF PRECIPITATON...MOSTLY SNOW WAS WORKING INTO
SW NY AND NW PA...AS A LOW PRESSURE AREAS WAS TRACKING ESE IN NORTH
CENTRAL PA.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...ADDED SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SOME MORE
CLOUDS...EARLY BOTH OF WHICH LOOK TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING.

AFTER WE LOOSE THE LAKE EFFECT..SOME SUNSHINE PREVAIL...BEFORE
QUICKLY BEING FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO WORK INTO OUR SOUTHWESTER AREAS
AREAS WELL AFTER NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER
TERRAIN SO INITIALLY ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN IN
THE VALLEYS...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE ANY
PRECIPITATION STARTS...WHICH SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR...AIR TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES. BY NIGHTFALL UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS WITH LITTLE OR NONE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FROM ABOUT KINGSTON NORTHWARD...CLOUDS WILL DIM THE SUN BUT IT LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...EXCEPT BECOMING LIGHT
NORTHERLY WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON
LINE...WILL MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OUT TO SEA. TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT AND CONTINUE TO COOL
FURTHER...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SNOW BY DARK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-84...MAYBE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS OF ULSTER COUNTY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE BUT EVEN IF IT HAPPENS...AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR
EVEN A SNOW ADVISORY. STILL...SOME ROADS COULD BECOME LOCALLY SLICK
THIS EVENING NEAR I-84.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THINNING CLOUDS
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL NORTHWEST BE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER ONE OF THE MAINLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A DEEP BLUE SKY. IT WILL
BE CHILLIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COACH
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...MID OR UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
WIND PERSISTING 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD FINALLY END OUR UNDER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT 96 DAYS. WHILE
THAT INTERVAL ITSELF IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE LONGEST SUCH
RECORD...IT WILL BE OUR SECOND LATEST DAY IN ANY GIVEN SEASON TO
OFFICIALLY REACH 50 OR HIGHER. WE ARE FORGETTING HIGHS IN THE MID
50S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THESE
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRINGLIKE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF (UNFORTUNATELY) ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 50 PERCENT.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE TRACK OF THE LOW. ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW
OVER ALBANY AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST...THEREBY KEEPING
CONDITIONS OVER THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA RATHER MILD AND PCPN
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNTIL NEARLY THE END OF THE EVENT. THE
GFS TRACKS THE LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WITH ENOUGH COOLING
OVER THE REGION FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING WIDESPREAD PCPN LIKELY...
HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR PCPN
TYPE...HAVE BLENDED THE TWO SOLUTIONS WHICH RESULTS IN UP TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND
A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN LOWER TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST...AND NO SNOW IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF
ALBANY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST
AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PCPN ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS ON SATURDAY...AND SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO THE 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 20S
TO LWOER 30S...EXCEPT THE TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS.

A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING DRY BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND TEENS ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LIGHT PCPN TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WILL LIKELY
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KPOU TAF SITE...BUT WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES.

HAVE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KPSF DUE TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT
15Z. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FLURRY AT KALB/KPSF THIS MORNING.

AT KPOU...HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
AFTER 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE
COAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL START OUT DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ABOUT KINGSTON SOUTH
WHERE A FAST MOVING ESE MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS VALLEY RAIN AND A SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DARK...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAPPENS...BUT
EVEN THERE BEFORE IT MOVES THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DROP
ABOUT ABOUT 60 PERCENT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VALUES 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SNOW OR RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING BY PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MEANS A FULL RECOVERY WILL
LIKELY NOT HAPPEN.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-15
MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW RANGE EXCEPT MODERATE RANGE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS ALL RAIN...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 311049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
649 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...INCLUDING SOME POSSIBLE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL
WEATHER WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFF AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE THE ALBANY AREA ITS FIRST OFFICIAL 50
PLUS DEGREE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS IF 630 AM EDT...ACTUALLY A FEW FLURRIES STILL BE DETECTED ON
RADAR...PROBABLY SOME RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT. THESE WILL NOT LAST TOO
MUCH LONGER...BUT INTRODUCED THEM INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NO
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS BATCH.

MEANWHILE...A BATCH OF PRECIPITATON...MOSTLY SNOW WAS WORKING INTO
SW NY AND NW PA...AS A LOW PRESSURE AREAS WAS TRACKING ESE IN NORTH
CENTRAL PA.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...ADDED SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SOME MORE
CLOUDS...EARLY BOTH OF WHICH LOOK TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING.

AFTER WE LOOSE THE LAKE EFFECT..SOME SUNSHINE PREVAIL...BEFORE
QUICKLY BEING FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO WORK INTO OUR SOUTHWESTER AREAS
AREAS WELL AFTER NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER
TERRAIN SO INITIALLY ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN IN
THE VALLEYS...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE ANY
PRECIPITATION STARTS...WHICH SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR...AIR TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES. BY NIGHTFALL UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS WITH LITTLE OR NONE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FROM ABOUT KINGSTON NORTHWARD...CLOUDS WILL DIM THE SUN BUT IT LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...EXCEPT BECOMING LIGHT
NORTHERLY WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON
LINE...WILL MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OUT TO SEA. TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT AND CONTINUE TO COOL
FURTHER...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SNOW BY DARK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-84...MAYBE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS OF ULSTER COUNTY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE BUT EVEN IF IT HAPPENS...AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR
EVEN A SNOW ADVISORY. STILL...SOME ROADS COULD BECOME LOCALLY SLICK
THIS EVENING NEAR I-84.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THINNING CLOUDS
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL NORTHWEST BE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER ONE OF THE MAINLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A DEEP BLUE SKY. IT WILL
BE CHILLIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COACH
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...MID OR UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
WIND PERSISTING 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD FINALLY END OUR UNDER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT 96 DAYS. WHILE
THAT INTERVAL ITSELF IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE LONGEST SUCH
RECORD...IT WILL BE OUR SECOND LATEST DAY IN ANY GIVEN SEASON TO
OFFICIALLY REACH 50 OR HIGHER. WE ARE FORGETTING HIGHS IN THE MID
50S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THESE
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRINGLIKE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF (UNFORTUNATELY) ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 50 PERCENT.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE TRACK OF THE LOW. ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW
OVER ALBANY AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST...THEREBY KEEPING
CONDITIONS OVER THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA RATHER MILD AND PCPN
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNTIL NEARLY THE END OF THE EVENT. THE
GFS TRACKS THE LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WITH ENOUGH COOLING
OVER THE REGION FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING WIDESPREAD PCPN LIKELY...
HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR PCPN
TYPE...HAVE BLENDED THE TWO SOLUTIONS WHICH RESULTS IN UP TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND
A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN LOWER TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST...AND NO SNOW IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF
ALBANY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST
AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PCPN ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS ON SATURDAY...AND SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO THE 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 20S
TO LWOER 30S...EXCEPT THE TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS.

A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING DRY BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND TEENS ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LIGHT PCPN TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WILL LIKELY
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KPOU TAF SITE...BUT WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES.

HAVE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KPSF DUE TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT
15Z. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FLURRY AT KALB/KPSF THIS MORNING.

AT KPOU...HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
AFTER 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE
COAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL START OUT DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ABOUT KINGSTON SOUTH
WHERE A FAST MOVING ESE MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS VALLEY RAIN AND A SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DARK...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAPPENS...BUT
EVEN THERE BEFORE IT MOVES THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DROP
ABOUT ABOUT 60 PERCENT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VALUES 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SNOW OR RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING BY PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MEANS A FULL RECOVERY WILL
LIKELY NOT HAPPEN.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-15
MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW RANGE EXCEPT MODERATE RANGE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS ALL RAIN...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 311038
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
635 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...INCLUDING SOME POSSIBLE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL
WEATHER WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFF AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE THE ALBANY AREA ITS FIRST OFFICIAL 50
PLUS DEGREE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS IF 630 AM EDT...ACTUALLY A FEW FLURRIES STILL BE DETECTED ON
RADAR...PROBABLY SOME RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT. THESE WILL NOT LAST TOO
MUCH LONGER...BUT INTRODUCED THEM INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NO
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS BATCH.

MEANWHILE...A BATCH OF PRECIPITATON...MOSTLY SNOW WAS WORKING INTO
SW NY AND NW PA...AS A LOW PRESSURE AREAS WAS TRACKING ESE IN NORTH
CENTRAL PA.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...ADDED SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SOME MORE
CLOUDS...EARLY BOTH OF WHICH LOOK TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING.

AFTER WE LOOSE THE LAKE EFFECT..SOME SUNSHINE PREVAIL...BEFORE
QUICKLY BEING FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO WORK INTO OUR SOUTHWESTER AREAS
AREAS WELL AFTER NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER
TERRAIN SO INITIALLY ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN IN
THE VALLEYS...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE ANY
PRECIPITATION STARTS...WHICH SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR...AIR TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES. BY NIGHTFALL UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS WITH LITTLE OR NONE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FROM ABOUT KINGSTON NORTHWARD...CLOUDS WILL DIM THE SUN BUT IT LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...EXCEPT BECOMING LIGHT
NORTHERLY WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON
LINE...WILL MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OUT TO SEA. TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT AND CONTINUE TO COOL
FURTHER...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SNOW BY DARK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-84...MAYBE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS OF ULSTER COUNTY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE BUT EVEN IF IT HAPPENS...AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR
EVEN A SNOW ADVISORY. STILL...SOME ROADS COULD BECOME LOCALLY SLICK
THIS EVENING NEAR I-84.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THINNING CLOUDS
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL NORTHWEST BE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER ONE OF THE MAINLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A DEEP BLUE SKY. IT WILL
BE CHILLIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COACH
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...MID OR UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
WIND PERSISTING 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD FINALLY END OUR UNDER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT 96 DAYS. WHILE
THAT INTERVAL ITSELF IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE LONGEST SUCH
RECORD...IT WILL BE OUR SECOND LATEST DAY IN ANY GIVEN SEASON TO
OFFICIALLY REACH 50 OR HIGHER. WE ARE FORGETTING HIGHS IN THE MID
50S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THESE
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRINGLIKE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF (UNFORTUNATELY) ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 50 PERCENT.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE TRACK OF THE LOW. ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW
OVER ALBANY AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST...THEREBY KEEPING
CONDITIONS OVER THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA RATHER MILD AND PCPN
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNTIL NEARLY THE END OF THE EVENT. THE
GFS TRACKS THE LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WITH ENOUGH COOLING
OVER THE REGION FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING WIDESPREAD PCPN LIKELY...
HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR PCPN
TYPE...HAVE BLENDED THE TWO SOLUTIONS WHICH RESULTS IN UP TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND
A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN LOWER TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST...AND NO SNOW IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF
ALBANY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST
AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PCPN ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS ON SATURDAY...AND SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO THE 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 20S
TO LWOER 30S...EXCEPT THE TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS.

A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING DRY BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND TEENS ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LIGHT PCPN TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KPOU TAF SITE...BUT WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES.

HAVE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT KPSF DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FLURRY AT KALB.

AT KPOU...HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
AFTER 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 KTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL START OUT DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ABOUT KINGSTON SOUTH
WHERE A FAST MOVING ESE MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS VALLEY RAIN AND A SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DARK...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAPPENS...BUT
EVEN THERE BEFORE IT MOVES THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DROP
ABOUT ABOUT 60 PERCENT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VALUES 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SNOW OR RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING BY PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MEANS A FULL RECOVERY WILL
LIKELY NOT HAPPEN.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-15
MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW RANGE EXCEPT MODERATE RANGE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS ALL RAIN...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 311038
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
635 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...INCLUDING SOME POSSIBLE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL
WEATHER WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFF AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE THE ALBANY AREA ITS FIRST OFFICIAL 50
PLUS DEGREE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS IF 630 AM EDT...ACTUALLY A FEW FLURRIES STILL BE DETECTED ON
RADAR...PROBABLY SOME RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT. THESE WILL NOT LAST TOO
MUCH LONGER...BUT INTRODUCED THEM INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NO
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS BATCH.

MEANWHILE...A BATCH OF PRECIPITATON...MOSTLY SNOW WAS WORKING INTO
SW NY AND NW PA...AS A LOW PRESSURE AREAS WAS TRACKING ESE IN NORTH
CENTRAL PA.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...ADDED SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SOME MORE
CLOUDS...EARLY BOTH OF WHICH LOOK TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING.

AFTER WE LOOSE THE LAKE EFFECT..SOME SUNSHINE PREVAIL...BEFORE
QUICKLY BEING FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO WORK INTO OUR SOUTHWESTER AREAS
AREAS WELL AFTER NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER
TERRAIN SO INITIALLY ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN IN
THE VALLEYS...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE ANY
PRECIPITATION STARTS...WHICH SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR...AIR TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES. BY NIGHTFALL UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS WITH LITTLE OR NONE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FROM ABOUT KINGSTON NORTHWARD...CLOUDS WILL DIM THE SUN BUT IT LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...EXCEPT BECOMING LIGHT
NORTHERLY WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON
LINE...WILL MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OUT TO SEA. TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT AND CONTINUE TO COOL
FURTHER...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SNOW BY DARK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-84...MAYBE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS OF ULSTER COUNTY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE BUT EVEN IF IT HAPPENS...AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR
EVEN A SNOW ADVISORY. STILL...SOME ROADS COULD BECOME LOCALLY SLICK
THIS EVENING NEAR I-84.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THINNING CLOUDS
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL NORTHWEST BE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER ONE OF THE MAINLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A DEEP BLUE SKY. IT WILL
BE CHILLIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COACH
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...MID OR UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
WIND PERSISTING 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD FINALLY END OUR UNDER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT 96 DAYS. WHILE
THAT INTERVAL ITSELF IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE LONGEST SUCH
RECORD...IT WILL BE OUR SECOND LATEST DAY IN ANY GIVEN SEASON TO
OFFICIALLY REACH 50 OR HIGHER. WE ARE FORGETTING HIGHS IN THE MID
50S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THESE
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRINGLIKE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF (UNFORTUNATELY) ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 50 PERCENT.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE TRACK OF THE LOW. ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW
OVER ALBANY AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST...THEREBY KEEPING
CONDITIONS OVER THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA RATHER MILD AND PCPN
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNTIL NEARLY THE END OF THE EVENT. THE
GFS TRACKS THE LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WITH ENOUGH COOLING
OVER THE REGION FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING WIDESPREAD PCPN LIKELY...
HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR PCPN
TYPE...HAVE BLENDED THE TWO SOLUTIONS WHICH RESULTS IN UP TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND
A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN LOWER TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST...AND NO SNOW IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF
ALBANY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST
AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PCPN ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS ON SATURDAY...AND SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO THE 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 20S
TO LWOER 30S...EXCEPT THE TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS.

A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING DRY BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND TEENS ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LIGHT PCPN TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KPOU TAF SITE...BUT WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES.

HAVE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT KPSF DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FLURRY AT KALB.

AT KPOU...HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
AFTER 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 KTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL START OUT DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ABOUT KINGSTON SOUTH
WHERE A FAST MOVING ESE MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS VALLEY RAIN AND A SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DARK...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAPPENS...BUT
EVEN THERE BEFORE IT MOVES THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DROP
ABOUT ABOUT 60 PERCENT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VALUES 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SNOW OR RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING BY PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MEANS A FULL RECOVERY WILL
LIKELY NOT HAPPEN.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-15
MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW RANGE EXCEPT MODERATE RANGE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS ALL RAIN...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 311038
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
635 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...INCLUDING SOME POSSIBLE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL
WEATHER WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFF AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE THE ALBANY AREA ITS FIRST OFFICIAL 50
PLUS DEGREE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS IF 630 AM EDT...ACTUALLY A FEW FLURRIES STILL BE DETECTED ON
RADAR...PROBABLY SOME RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT. THESE WILL NOT LAST TOO
MUCH LONGER...BUT INTRODUCED THEM INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NO
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS BATCH.

MEANWHILE...A BATCH OF PRECIPITATON...MOSTLY SNOW WAS WORKING INTO
SW NY AND NW PA...AS A LOW PRESSURE AREAS WAS TRACKING ESE IN NORTH
CENTRAL PA.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...ADDED SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SOME MORE
CLOUDS...EARLY BOTH OF WHICH LOOK TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING.

AFTER WE LOOSE THE LAKE EFFECT..SOME SUNSHINE PREVAIL...BEFORE
QUICKLY BEING FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO WORK INTO OUR SOUTHWESTER AREAS
AREAS WELL AFTER NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER
TERRAIN SO INITIALLY ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN IN
THE VALLEYS...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE ANY
PRECIPITATION STARTS...WHICH SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR...AIR TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES. BY NIGHTFALL UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS WITH LITTLE OR NONE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FROM ABOUT KINGSTON NORTHWARD...CLOUDS WILL DIM THE SUN BUT IT LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...EXCEPT BECOMING LIGHT
NORTHERLY WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON
LINE...WILL MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OUT TO SEA. TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT AND CONTINUE TO COOL
FURTHER...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SNOW BY DARK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-84...MAYBE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS OF ULSTER COUNTY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE BUT EVEN IF IT HAPPENS...AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR
EVEN A SNOW ADVISORY. STILL...SOME ROADS COULD BECOME LOCALLY SLICK
THIS EVENING NEAR I-84.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THINNING CLOUDS
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL NORTHWEST BE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER ONE OF THE MAINLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A DEEP BLUE SKY. IT WILL
BE CHILLIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COACH
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...MID OR UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
WIND PERSISTING 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD FINALLY END OUR UNDER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT 96 DAYS. WHILE
THAT INTERVAL ITSELF IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE LONGEST SUCH
RECORD...IT WILL BE OUR SECOND LATEST DAY IN ANY GIVEN SEASON TO
OFFICIALLY REACH 50 OR HIGHER. WE ARE FORGETTING HIGHS IN THE MID
50S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THESE
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRINGLIKE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF (UNFORTUNATELY) ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 50 PERCENT.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE TRACK OF THE LOW. ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW
OVER ALBANY AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST...THEREBY KEEPING
CONDITIONS OVER THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA RATHER MILD AND PCPN
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNTIL NEARLY THE END OF THE EVENT. THE
GFS TRACKS THE LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WITH ENOUGH COOLING
OVER THE REGION FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING WIDESPREAD PCPN LIKELY...
HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR PCPN
TYPE...HAVE BLENDED THE TWO SOLUTIONS WHICH RESULTS IN UP TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND
A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN LOWER TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST...AND NO SNOW IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF
ALBANY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST
AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PCPN ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS ON SATURDAY...AND SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO THE 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 20S
TO LWOER 30S...EXCEPT THE TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS.

A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING DRY BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND TEENS ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LIGHT PCPN TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KPOU TAF SITE...BUT WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES.

HAVE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT KPSF DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FLURRY AT KALB.

AT KPOU...HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
AFTER 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 KTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL START OUT DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ABOUT KINGSTON SOUTH
WHERE A FAST MOVING ESE MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS VALLEY RAIN AND A SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DARK...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAPPENS...BUT
EVEN THERE BEFORE IT MOVES THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DROP
ABOUT ABOUT 60 PERCENT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VALUES 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SNOW OR RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING BY PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MEANS A FULL RECOVERY WILL
LIKELY NOT HAPPEN.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-15
MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW RANGE EXCEPT MODERATE RANGE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS ALL RAIN...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 311038
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
635 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...INCLUDING SOME POSSIBLE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL
WEATHER WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFF AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE THE ALBANY AREA ITS FIRST OFFICIAL 50
PLUS DEGREE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS IF 630 AM EDT...ACTUALLY A FEW FLURRIES STILL BE DETECTED ON
RADAR...PROBABLY SOME RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT. THESE WILL NOT LAST TOO
MUCH LONGER...BUT INTRODUCED THEM INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NO
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS BATCH.

MEANWHILE...A BATCH OF PRECIPITATON...MOSTLY SNOW WAS WORKING INTO
SW NY AND NW PA...AS A LOW PRESSURE AREAS WAS TRACKING ESE IN NORTH
CENTRAL PA.

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...ADDED SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SOME MORE
CLOUDS...EARLY BOTH OF WHICH LOOK TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING.

AFTER WE LOOSE THE LAKE EFFECT..SOME SUNSHINE PREVAIL...BEFORE
QUICKLY BEING FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO WORK INTO OUR SOUTHWESTER AREAS
AREAS WELL AFTER NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER
TERRAIN SO INITIALLY ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN IN
THE VALLEYS...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE ANY
PRECIPITATION STARTS...WHICH SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR...AIR TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES. BY NIGHTFALL UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS WITH LITTLE OR NONE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FROM ABOUT KINGSTON NORTHWARD...CLOUDS WILL DIM THE SUN BUT IT LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...EXCEPT BECOMING LIGHT
NORTHERLY WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON
LINE...WILL MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OUT TO SEA. TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT AND CONTINUE TO COOL
FURTHER...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SNOW BY DARK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-84...MAYBE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS OF ULSTER COUNTY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE BUT EVEN IF IT HAPPENS...AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR
EVEN A SNOW ADVISORY. STILL...SOME ROADS COULD BECOME LOCALLY SLICK
THIS EVENING NEAR I-84.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THINNING CLOUDS
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL NORTHWEST BE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER ONE OF THE MAINLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A DEEP BLUE SKY. IT WILL
BE CHILLIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COACH
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...MID OR UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
WIND PERSISTING 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD FINALLY END OUR UNDER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT 96 DAYS. WHILE
THAT INTERVAL ITSELF IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE LONGEST SUCH
RECORD...IT WILL BE OUR SECOND LATEST DAY IN ANY GIVEN SEASON TO
OFFICIALLY REACH 50 OR HIGHER. WE ARE FORGETTING HIGHS IN THE MID
50S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THESE
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRINGLIKE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF (UNFORTUNATELY) ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 50 PERCENT.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE TRACK OF THE LOW. ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW
OVER ALBANY AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST...THEREBY KEEPING
CONDITIONS OVER THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA RATHER MILD AND PCPN
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNTIL NEARLY THE END OF THE EVENT. THE
GFS TRACKS THE LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WITH ENOUGH COOLING
OVER THE REGION FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING WIDESPREAD PCPN LIKELY...
HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR PCPN
TYPE...HAVE BLENDED THE TWO SOLUTIONS WHICH RESULTS IN UP TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND
A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN LOWER TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST...AND NO SNOW IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF
ALBANY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST
AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PCPN ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS ON SATURDAY...AND SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO THE 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 20S
TO LWOER 30S...EXCEPT THE TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS.

A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING DRY BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND TEENS ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LIGHT PCPN TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KPOU TAF SITE...BUT WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES.

HAVE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT KPSF DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FLURRY AT KALB.

AT KPOU...HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
AFTER 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 KTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL START OUT DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ABOUT KINGSTON SOUTH
WHERE A FAST MOVING ESE MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS VALLEY RAIN AND A SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DARK...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAPPENS...BUT
EVEN THERE BEFORE IT MOVES THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DROP
ABOUT ABOUT 60 PERCENT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VALUES 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SNOW OR RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING BY PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MEANS A FULL RECOVERY WILL
LIKELY NOT HAPPEN.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-15
MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW RANGE EXCEPT MODERATE RANGE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS ALL RAIN...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 311037
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
637 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 637 AM EDT TUESDAY...OTHER THAN A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWING A SHARP BACK
EDGE TO THE CLOUDS IS MOVING INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
VERTICAL DEPTH OF THE CLOUDS HAS DIMINISHED AS WELL...WHICH WILL
LIMIT THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH JUST A TWEAK TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AS CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TWO SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN WILL REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THUS DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EVENTUALLY THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WARMER AIR
MOVES IN WITH HIGHS ON THE THURSDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE RAIN AND THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS
ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND RIDES
ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING SOME WET SNOW TO THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A MUCH WEAKER LOW
PASSING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGS JUST A
CHANCE FOR SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT.
THEN SOME DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
BEYOND THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WEATHER PATTERN
LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE. BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES
FOR THE PERIOD WITH SOME ABOVE AND SOME BELOW NORMAL READINGS.
THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FROM 72 THRU
180 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT. LIFR AT MPV AND MVFR AT RUT AS THESE
SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS. MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO LINGER AT SLK WITH
CEILINGS. OTHER SITES ARE ALL VFR NOW. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. BKN/OVC CEILINGS WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BECOME SCATTERED.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR/SCT IFR POSSIBLE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. INDICATIONS OF SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WITH LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD WITH MVFR/IFR IMPLICATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 311037
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
637 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 637 AM EDT TUESDAY...OTHER THAN A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWING A SHARP BACK
EDGE TO THE CLOUDS IS MOVING INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
VERTICAL DEPTH OF THE CLOUDS HAS DIMINISHED AS WELL...WHICH WILL
LIMIT THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH JUST A TWEAK TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AS CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TWO SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN WILL REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THUS DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EVENTUALLY THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WARMER AIR
MOVES IN WITH HIGHS ON THE THURSDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE RAIN AND THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS
ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND RIDES
ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING SOME WET SNOW TO THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A MUCH WEAKER LOW
PASSING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGS JUST A
CHANCE FOR SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT.
THEN SOME DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
BEYOND THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WEATHER PATTERN
LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE. BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES
FOR THE PERIOD WITH SOME ABOVE AND SOME BELOW NORMAL READINGS.
THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FROM 72 THRU
180 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT. LIFR AT MPV AND MVFR AT RUT AS THESE
SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS. MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO LINGER AT SLK WITH
CEILINGS. OTHER SITES ARE ALL VFR NOW. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. BKN/OVC CEILINGS WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BECOME SCATTERED.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR/SCT IFR POSSIBLE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. INDICATIONS OF SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WITH LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD WITH MVFR/IFR IMPLICATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KALY 310948
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
532 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...INCLUDING SOME POSSIBLE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL
WEATHER WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFF AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE THE ALBANY AREA ITS FIRST OFFICIAL 50
PLUS DEGREE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT...STILL A FEW LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS (OR SPRINKLES
OR FLURRIES) AROUND THE REGION BUT THAT WAS ABOUT IT. THE CLOUDS
HAVE BECOME SCATTERED IN MOST AREAS. DUE TO A PERSISTENT
BREEZE...TEMPERATURES HAVE KEPT UP MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. A
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WAS OVER THE LONDON
PLANE OF ONTARIO HEADING ESE.

BY DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE FALLEN A LITTLE MORE...30-35
OVER THE VALLEY...MID OR UPPER 20S HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SKY WILL
RANGE FROM CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. THE BREEZE SHOULD DIMINISH A
LITTLE...BUT STILL BE 5-15 MPH OUT OF THE WEST WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUST POSSIBLE.

SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY MOST PLACES WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOW BY AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
WORK INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREA AFTER NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER
TERRAIN SO INITIALLY ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN IN
THE VALLEYS...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE ANY
PRECIPITATION STARTS...WHICH SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR...AIR TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES. BY NIGHTFALL UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS WITH LITTLE OR NONE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FROM ABOUT KINGSTON NORTHWARD...CLOUDS WILL DIM THE SUN BUT IT LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...EXCEPT BECOME LIGHT
NORTHERLY WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON
LINE...WILL MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OUT TO SEA. TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT AND CONTINUE TO COOL
FURTHER...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SNOW BY DARK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-84...MAYBE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS OF ULSTER COUNTY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE BUT EVEN IF IT HAPPENS...AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR
EVEN A SNOW ADVISORY. STILL...SOME ROADS COULD BECOME LOCALLY SLICK
THIS EVENING NEAR I-84.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THINNING
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL NORTHWEST BE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER ONE OF THE MAINLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A DEEP BLUE SKY. IT WILL
BE CHILLIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COACH
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...MID OR UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
WIND PERSISTING 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD FINALLY END OUR UNDER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT 96 DAYS. WHILE
THAT INTERVAL ITSELF IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE LONGEST SUCH
RECORD...IT WILL BE OUR SECOND LATEST DAY IN ANY GIVEN SEASON TO
OFFICIALLY REACH 50 OR HIGHER. WE ARE FORGETTING HIGHS IN THE MID
50S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THESE
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRINGLIKE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF (UNFORTUNATELY) ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 50 PERCENT.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE TRACK OF THE LOW. ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW
OVER ALBANY AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST...THEREBY KEEPING
CONDITIONS OVER THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA RATHER MILD AND PCPN
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNTIL NEARLY THE END OF THE EVENT. THE
GFS TRACKS THE LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WITH ENOUGH COOLING
OVER THE REGION FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING WIDESPREAD PCPN LIKELY...
HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR PCPN
TYPE...HAVE BLENDED THE TWO SOLUTIONS WHICH RESULTS IN UP TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND
A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN LOWER TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST...AND NO SNOW IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF
ALBANY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST
AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PCPN ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS ON SATURDAY...AND SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO THE 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 20S
TO LWOER 30S...EXCEPT THE TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS.

A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING DRY BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND TEENS ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LIGHT PCPN TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KPOU TAF SITE...BUT WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES.

HAVE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT KPSF DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FLURRY AT KALB.

AT KPOU...HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
AFTER 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 KTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL START OUT DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ABOUT KINGSTON SOUTH
WHERE A FAST MOVING ESE MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS VALLEY RAIN AND A SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DARK...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAPPENS...BUT
EVEN THERE BEFORE IT MOVES THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DROP
ABOUT ABOUT 60 PERCENT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VALUES 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SNOW OR RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING BY PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MEANS A FULL RECOVERY WILL
LIKELY NOT HAPPEN.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-15
MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW RANGE EXCEPT MODERATE RANGE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS ALL RAIN...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 310948
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
532 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...INCLUDING SOME POSSIBLE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL
WEATHER WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFF AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE THE ALBANY AREA ITS FIRST OFFICIAL 50
PLUS DEGREE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT...STILL A FEW LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS (OR SPRINKLES
OR FLURRIES) AROUND THE REGION BUT THAT WAS ABOUT IT. THE CLOUDS
HAVE BECOME SCATTERED IN MOST AREAS. DUE TO A PERSISTENT
BREEZE...TEMPERATURES HAVE KEPT UP MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. A
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WAS OVER THE LONDON
PLANE OF ONTARIO HEADING ESE.

BY DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE FALLEN A LITTLE MORE...30-35
OVER THE VALLEY...MID OR UPPER 20S HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SKY WILL
RANGE FROM CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. THE BREEZE SHOULD DIMINISH A
LITTLE...BUT STILL BE 5-15 MPH OUT OF THE WEST WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUST POSSIBLE.

SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY MOST PLACES WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOW BY AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
WORK INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREA AFTER NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER
TERRAIN SO INITIALLY ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN IN
THE VALLEYS...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE ANY
PRECIPITATION STARTS...WHICH SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR...AIR TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES. BY NIGHTFALL UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS WITH LITTLE OR NONE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FROM ABOUT KINGSTON NORTHWARD...CLOUDS WILL DIM THE SUN BUT IT LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...EXCEPT BECOME LIGHT
NORTHERLY WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON
LINE...WILL MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OUT TO SEA. TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT AND CONTINUE TO COOL
FURTHER...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SNOW BY DARK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-84...MAYBE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS OF ULSTER COUNTY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE BUT EVEN IF IT HAPPENS...AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR
EVEN A SNOW ADVISORY. STILL...SOME ROADS COULD BECOME LOCALLY SLICK
THIS EVENING NEAR I-84.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THINNING
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL NORTHWEST BE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER ONE OF THE MAINLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A DEEP BLUE SKY. IT WILL
BE CHILLIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COACH
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...MID OR UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
WIND PERSISTING 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD FINALLY END OUR UNDER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT 96 DAYS. WHILE
THAT INTERVAL ITSELF IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE LONGEST SUCH
RECORD...IT WILL BE OUR SECOND LATEST DAY IN ANY GIVEN SEASON TO
OFFICIALLY REACH 50 OR HIGHER. WE ARE FORGETTING HIGHS IN THE MID
50S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THESE
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRINGLIKE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF (UNFORTUNATELY) ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 50 PERCENT.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE TRACK OF THE LOW. ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW
OVER ALBANY AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST...THEREBY KEEPING
CONDITIONS OVER THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA RATHER MILD AND PCPN
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNTIL NEARLY THE END OF THE EVENT. THE
GFS TRACKS THE LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WITH ENOUGH COOLING
OVER THE REGION FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING WIDESPREAD PCPN LIKELY...
HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR PCPN
TYPE...HAVE BLENDED THE TWO SOLUTIONS WHICH RESULTS IN UP TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND
A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN LOWER TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST...AND NO SNOW IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF
ALBANY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST
AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PCPN ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS ON SATURDAY...AND SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO THE 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 20S
TO LWOER 30S...EXCEPT THE TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS.

A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING DRY BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND TEENS ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LIGHT PCPN TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KPOU TAF SITE...BUT WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES.

HAVE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT KPSF DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FLURRY AT KALB.

AT KPOU...HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
AFTER 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 KTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL START OUT DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ABOUT KINGSTON SOUTH
WHERE A FAST MOVING ESE MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS VALLEY RAIN AND A SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DARK...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAPPENS...BUT
EVEN THERE BEFORE IT MOVES THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DROP
ABOUT ABOUT 60 PERCENT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VALUES 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SNOW OR RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING BY PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MEANS A FULL RECOVERY WILL
LIKELY NOT HAPPEN.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-15
MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW RANGE EXCEPT MODERATE RANGE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS ALL RAIN...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 310948
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
532 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...INCLUDING SOME POSSIBLE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL
WEATHER WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFF AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE THE ALBANY AREA ITS FIRST OFFICIAL 50
PLUS DEGREE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT...STILL A FEW LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS (OR SPRINKLES
OR FLURRIES) AROUND THE REGION BUT THAT WAS ABOUT IT. THE CLOUDS
HAVE BECOME SCATTERED IN MOST AREAS. DUE TO A PERSISTENT
BREEZE...TEMPERATURES HAVE KEPT UP MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. A
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WAS OVER THE LONDON
PLANE OF ONTARIO HEADING ESE.

BY DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE FALLEN A LITTLE MORE...30-35
OVER THE VALLEY...MID OR UPPER 20S HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SKY WILL
RANGE FROM CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. THE BREEZE SHOULD DIMINISH A
LITTLE...BUT STILL BE 5-15 MPH OUT OF THE WEST WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUST POSSIBLE.

SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY MOST PLACES WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOW BY AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
WORK INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREA AFTER NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER
TERRAIN SO INITIALLY ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN IN
THE VALLEYS...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE ANY
PRECIPITATION STARTS...WHICH SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR...AIR TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES. BY NIGHTFALL UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS WITH LITTLE OR NONE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FROM ABOUT KINGSTON NORTHWARD...CLOUDS WILL DIM THE SUN BUT IT LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...EXCEPT BECOME LIGHT
NORTHERLY WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON
LINE...WILL MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OUT TO SEA. TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT AND CONTINUE TO COOL
FURTHER...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SNOW BY DARK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-84...MAYBE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS OF ULSTER COUNTY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE BUT EVEN IF IT HAPPENS...AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR
EVEN A SNOW ADVISORY. STILL...SOME ROADS COULD BECOME LOCALLY SLICK
THIS EVENING NEAR I-84.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THINNING
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL NORTHWEST BE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER ONE OF THE MAINLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A DEEP BLUE SKY. IT WILL
BE CHILLIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COACH
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...MID OR UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
WIND PERSISTING 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD FINALLY END OUR UNDER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT 96 DAYS. WHILE
THAT INTERVAL ITSELF IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE LONGEST SUCH
RECORD...IT WILL BE OUR SECOND LATEST DAY IN ANY GIVEN SEASON TO
OFFICIALLY REACH 50 OR HIGHER. WE ARE FORGETTING HIGHS IN THE MID
50S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THESE
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRINGLIKE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF (UNFORTUNATELY) ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 50 PERCENT.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE TRACK OF THE LOW. ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW
OVER ALBANY AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST...THEREBY KEEPING
CONDITIONS OVER THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA RATHER MILD AND PCPN
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNTIL NEARLY THE END OF THE EVENT. THE
GFS TRACKS THE LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WITH ENOUGH COOLING
OVER THE REGION FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING WIDESPREAD PCPN LIKELY...
HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR PCPN
TYPE...HAVE BLENDED THE TWO SOLUTIONS WHICH RESULTS IN UP TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND
A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN LOWER TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST...AND NO SNOW IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF
ALBANY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST
AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PCPN ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS ON SATURDAY...AND SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO THE 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 20S
TO LWOER 30S...EXCEPT THE TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS.

A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING DRY BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND TEENS ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LIGHT PCPN TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KPOU TAF SITE...BUT WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES.

HAVE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT KPSF DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FLURRY AT KALB.

AT KPOU...HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
AFTER 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 KTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL START OUT DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ABOUT KINGSTON SOUTH
WHERE A FAST MOVING ESE MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS VALLEY RAIN AND A SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DARK...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAPPENS...BUT
EVEN THERE BEFORE IT MOVES THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DROP
ABOUT ABOUT 60 PERCENT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VALUES 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SNOW OR RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING BY PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MEANS A FULL RECOVERY WILL
LIKELY NOT HAPPEN.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-15
MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW RANGE EXCEPT MODERATE RANGE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS ALL RAIN...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 310932
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
532 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...INCLUDING SOME POSSIBLE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL
WEATHER WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFF AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE THE ALBANY AREA ITS FIRST OFFICIAL 50
PLUS DEGREE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT...STILL A FEW LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS (OR SPRINKLES
OR FLURRIES) AROUND THE REGION BUT THAT WAS ABOUT IT. THE CLOUDS
HAVE BECOME SCATTERED IN MOST AREAS. DUE TO A PERSISTENT
BREEZE...TEMPERATURES HAVE KEPT UP MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. A
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WAS OVER THE LONDON
PLANE OF ONTARIO HEADING ESE.

BY DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE FALLEN A LITTLE MORE...30-35
OVER THE VALLEY...MID OR UPPER 20S HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SKY WILL
RANGE FROM CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. THE BREEZE SHOULD DIMINISH A
LITTLE...BUT STILL BE 5-15 MPH OUT OF THE WEST WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUST POSSIBLE.

SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY MOST PLACES WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOW BY AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
WORK INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREA AFTER NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER
TERRAIN SO INITIALLY ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN IN
THE VALLEYS...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE ANY
PRECIPITATION STARTS...WHICH SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR...AIR TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES. BY NIGHTFALL UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS WITH LITTLE OR NONE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FROM ABOUT KINGSTON NORTHWARD...CLOUDS WILL DIM THE SUN BUT IT LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...EXCEPT BECOME LIGHT
NORTHERLY WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON
LINE...WILL MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OUT TO SEA. TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT AND CONTINUE TO COOL
FURTHER...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SNOW BY DARK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-84...MAYBE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS OF ULSTER COUNTY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE BUT EVEN IF IT HAPPENS...AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR
EVEN A SNOW ADVISORY. STILL...SOME ROADS COULD BECOME LOCALLY SLICK
THIS EVENING NEAR I-84.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THINNING
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL NORTHWEST BE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER ONE OF THE MAINLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A DEEP BLUE SKY. IT WILL
BE CHILLIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COACH
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...MID OR UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
WIND PERSISTING 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD FINALLY END OUR UNDER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT 96 DAYS. WHILE
THAT INTERVAL ITSELF IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE LONGEST SUCH
RECORD...IT WILL BE OUR SECOND LATEST DAY IN ANY GIVEN SEASON TO
OFFICIALLY REACH 50 OR HIGHER. WE ARE FORGETTING HIGHS IN THE MID
50S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THESE
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRINGLIKE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF (UNFORTUNATELY) ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 50 PERCENT.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE TRACK OF THE LOW. ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW
OVER ALBANY AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST...THEREBY KEEPING
CONDITIONS OVER THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA RATHER MILD AND PCPN
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNTIL NEARLY THE END OF THE EVENT. THE
GFS TRACKS THE LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WITH ENOUGH COOLING
OVER THE REGION FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING WIDESPREAD PCPN LIKELY...
HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR PCPN
TYPE...HAVE BLENDED THE TWO SOLUTIONS WHICH RESULTS IN UP TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND
A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN LOWER TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST...AND NO SNOW IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF
ALBANY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST
AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PCPN ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS ON SATURDAY...AND SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO THE 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 20S
TO LWOER 30S...EXCEPT THE TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS.

A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING DRY BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND TEENS ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LIGHT PCPN TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KPOU TAF SITE...BUT WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES.

HAVE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT KPSF DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FLURRY AT KALB.

AT KPOU...HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
AFTER 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 KTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL START OUT DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ABOUT KINGSTON SOUTH
WHERE A FAST MOVING ESE MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS VALLEY RAIN AND A SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DARK...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAPPENS...BUT
EVEN THERE BEFORE IT MOVES THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DROP
ABOUT ABOUT 60 PERCENT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VALUES 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SNOW OR RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING BY PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MEANS A FULL RECOVERY WILL
LIKELY NOT HAPPEN.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-20
MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW RANGE EXCEPT MODERATE RANGE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS ALL RAIN...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 310932
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
532 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...INCLUDING SOME POSSIBLE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL
WEATHER WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFF AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE THE ALBANY AREA ITS FIRST OFFICIAL 50
PLUS DEGREE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT...STILL A FEW LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS (OR SPRINKLES
OR FLURRIES) AROUND THE REGION BUT THAT WAS ABOUT IT. THE CLOUDS
HAVE BECOME SCATTERED IN MOST AREAS. DUE TO A PERSISTENT
BREEZE...TEMPERATURES HAVE KEPT UP MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. A
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WAS OVER THE LONDON
PLANE OF ONTARIO HEADING ESE.

BY DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE FALLEN A LITTLE MORE...30-35
OVER THE VALLEY...MID OR UPPER 20S HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SKY WILL
RANGE FROM CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. THE BREEZE SHOULD DIMINISH A
LITTLE...BUT STILL BE 5-15 MPH OUT OF THE WEST WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUST POSSIBLE.

SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY MOST PLACES WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOW BY AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
WORK INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREA AFTER NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER
TERRAIN SO INITIALLY ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN IN
THE VALLEYS...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE ANY
PRECIPITATION STARTS...WHICH SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR...AIR TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES. BY NIGHTFALL UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS WITH LITTLE OR NONE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FROM ABOUT KINGSTON NORTHWARD...CLOUDS WILL DIM THE SUN BUT IT LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...EXCEPT BECOME LIGHT
NORTHERLY WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON
LINE...WILL MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OUT TO SEA. TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT AND CONTINUE TO COOL
FURTHER...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SNOW BY DARK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-84...MAYBE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS OF ULSTER COUNTY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE BUT EVEN IF IT HAPPENS...AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR
EVEN A SNOW ADVISORY. STILL...SOME ROADS COULD BECOME LOCALLY SLICK
THIS EVENING NEAR I-84.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THINNING
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL NORTHWEST BE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER ONE OF THE MAINLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A DEEP BLUE SKY. IT WILL
BE CHILLIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COACH
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...MID OR UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
WIND PERSISTING 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD FINALLY END OUR UNDER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT 96 DAYS. WHILE
THAT INTERVAL ITSELF IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE LONGEST SUCH
RECORD...IT WILL BE OUR SECOND LATEST DAY IN ANY GIVEN SEASON TO
OFFICIALLY REACH 50 OR HIGHER. WE ARE FORGETTING HIGHS IN THE MID
50S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THESE
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRINGLIKE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF (UNFORTUNATELY) ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 50 PERCENT.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT WAVE TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN TO THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE TRACK OF THE LOW. ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW
OVER ALBANY AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST...THEREBY KEEPING
CONDITIONS OVER THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA RATHER MILD AND PCPN
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNTIL NEARLY THE END OF THE EVENT. THE
GFS TRACKS THE LOW OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WITH ENOUGH COOLING
OVER THE REGION FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING WIDESPREAD PCPN LIKELY...
HAVE FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN ALL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR PCPN
TYPE...HAVE BLENDED THE TWO SOLUTIONS WHICH RESULTS IN UP TO A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND
A DUSTING TO AN INCH IN LOWER TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST...AND NO SNOW IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF
ALBANY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST
AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PCPN ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS ON SATURDAY...AND SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO THE 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 20S
TO LWOER 30S...EXCEPT THE TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS.

A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING DRY BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND TEENS ADIRONDACKS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LIGHT PCPN TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 30S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KPOU TAF SITE...BUT WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES.

HAVE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT KPSF DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FLURRY AT KALB.

AT KPOU...HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
AFTER 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 KTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL START OUT DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ABOUT KINGSTON SOUTH
WHERE A FAST MOVING ESE MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS VALLEY RAIN AND A SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DARK...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAPPENS...BUT
EVEN THERE BEFORE IT MOVES THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DROP
ABOUT ABOUT 60 PERCENT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VALUES 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SNOW OR RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING BY PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MEANS A FULL RECOVERY WILL
LIKELY NOT HAPPEN.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-20
MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW RANGE EXCEPT MODERATE RANGE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS ALL RAIN...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 310842
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
440 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...INCLUDING SOME POSSIBLE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL
WEATHER WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFF AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE THE ALBANY AREA ITS FIRST OFFICIAL 50
PLUS DEGREE DAY ON THURSDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 430 AM EDT...STILL A FEW LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS (OR SPRINKLES
OR FLURRIES) AROUND THE REGION BUT THAT WAS ABOUT IT. THE CLOUDS
HAVE BECOME SCATTERED IN MOST AREAS. DUE TO A PERSISTENT
BREEZE...TEMPERATURES HAVE KEPT UP MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. A
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WAS OVER THE LONDON
PLANE OF ONTARIO HEADING ESE.

BY DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE FALLEN A LITTLE MORE...30-35
OVER THE VALLEY...MID OR UPPER 20S HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SKY WILL
RANGE FROM CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. THE BREEZE SHOULD DIMINISH A
LITTLE...BUT STILL BE 5-15 MPH OUT OF THE WEST WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUST POSSIBLE.

SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY MOST PLACES WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOW BY AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
WORK INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREA AFTER NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER
TERRAIN SO INITIALLY ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN IN
THE VALLEYS...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE ANY
PRECIPITATION STARTS...WHICH SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR...AIR TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES. BY NIGHTFALL UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS WITH LITTLE OR NONE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FROM ABOUT KINGSTON NORTHWARD...CLOUDS WILL DIM THE SUN BUT IT LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...EXCEPT BECOME LIGHT
NORTHERLY WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON
LINE...WILL MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OUT TO SEA. TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT AND CONTINUE TO COOL
FURTHER...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SNOW BY DARK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-84...MAYBE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS OF ULSTER COUNTY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE BUT EVEN IF IT HAPPENS...AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR
EVEN A SNOW ADVISORY. STILL...SOME ROADS COULD BECOME LOCALLY SLICK
THIS EVENING NEAR I-84.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THINNING
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL NORTHWEST BE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER ONE OF THE MAINLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A DEEP BLUE SKY. IT WILL
BE CHILLIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COACH
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...MID OR UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
WIND PERSISTING 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD FINALLY END OUR UNDER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT 96 DAYS. WHILE
THAT INTERVAL ITSELF IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE LONGEST SUCH
RECORD...IT WILL BE OUR SECOND LATEST DAY IN ANY GIVEN SEASON TO
OFFICIALLY REACH 50 OR HIGHER. WE ARE FORGETTING HIGHS IN THE MID
50S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THESE
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COMING SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KPOU TAF SITE...BUT WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES.

HAVE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT KPSF DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FLURRY AT KALB.

AT KPOU...HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
AFTER 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 KTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

IT WILL START OUT DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ABOUT KINGSTON SOUTH
WHERE A FAST MOVING ESE MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS VALLEY RAIN AND A SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DARK...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAPPENS...BUT
EVEN THERE BEFORE IT MOVES THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DROP
ABOUT ABOUT 60 PERCENT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VALUES 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SNOW OR RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING BY PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MEANS A FULL RECOVERY WILL
LIKELY NOT HAPPEN.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-20
MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW RANGE EXCEPT MODERATE RANGE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS ALL RAIN...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE SATURDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...SEND/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SEND/HWJIV/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 310842
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
440 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...INCLUDING SOME POSSIBLE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL
WEATHER WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFF AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE THE ALBANY AREA ITS FIRST OFFICIAL 50
PLUS DEGREE DAY ON THURSDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 430 AM EDT...STILL A FEW LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS (OR SPRINKLES
OR FLURRIES) AROUND THE REGION BUT THAT WAS ABOUT IT. THE CLOUDS
HAVE BECOME SCATTERED IN MOST AREAS. DUE TO A PERSISTENT
BREEZE...TEMPERATURES HAVE KEPT UP MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. A
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WAS OVER THE LONDON
PLANE OF ONTARIO HEADING ESE.

BY DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE FALLEN A LITTLE MORE...30-35
OVER THE VALLEY...MID OR UPPER 20S HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SKY WILL
RANGE FROM CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. THE BREEZE SHOULD DIMINISH A
LITTLE...BUT STILL BE 5-15 MPH OUT OF THE WEST WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUST POSSIBLE.

SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY MOST PLACES WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOW BY AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
WORK INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREA AFTER NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER
TERRAIN SO INITIALLY ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN IN
THE VALLEYS...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE ANY
PRECIPITATION STARTS...WHICH SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR...AIR TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES. BY NIGHTFALL UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS WITH LITTLE OR NONE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FROM ABOUT KINGSTON NORTHWARD...CLOUDS WILL DIM THE SUN BUT IT LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...EXCEPT BECOME LIGHT
NORTHERLY WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON
LINE...WILL MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OUT TO SEA. TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT AND CONTINUE TO COOL
FURTHER...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SNOW BY DARK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-84...MAYBE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS OF ULSTER COUNTY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE BUT EVEN IF IT HAPPENS...AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR
EVEN A SNOW ADVISORY. STILL...SOME ROADS COULD BECOME LOCALLY SLICK
THIS EVENING NEAR I-84.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THINNING
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL NORTHWEST BE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER ONE OF THE MAINLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A DEEP BLUE SKY. IT WILL
BE CHILLIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COACH
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...MID OR UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
WIND PERSISTING 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD FINALLY END OUR UNDER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT 96 DAYS. WHILE
THAT INTERVAL ITSELF IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE LONGEST SUCH
RECORD...IT WILL BE OUR SECOND LATEST DAY IN ANY GIVEN SEASON TO
OFFICIALLY REACH 50 OR HIGHER. WE ARE FORGETTING HIGHS IN THE MID
50S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THESE
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COMING SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KPOU TAF SITE...BUT WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES.

HAVE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT KPSF DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FLURRY AT KALB.

AT KPOU...HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
AFTER 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 KTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

IT WILL START OUT DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ABOUT KINGSTON SOUTH
WHERE A FAST MOVING ESE MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS VALLEY RAIN AND A SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DARK...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAPPENS...BUT
EVEN THERE BEFORE IT MOVES THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DROP
ABOUT ABOUT 60 PERCENT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VALUES 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SNOW OR RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING BY PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MEANS A FULL RECOVERY WILL
LIKELY NOT HAPPEN.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-20
MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW RANGE EXCEPT MODERATE RANGE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS ALL RAIN...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE SATURDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...SEND/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SEND/HWJIV/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 310842
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
440 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...INCLUDING SOME POSSIBLE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL
WEATHER WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFF AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE THE ALBANY AREA ITS FIRST OFFICIAL 50
PLUS DEGREE DAY ON THURSDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 430 AM EDT...STILL A FEW LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS (OR SPRINKLES
OR FLURRIES) AROUND THE REGION BUT THAT WAS ABOUT IT. THE CLOUDS
HAVE BECOME SCATTERED IN MOST AREAS. DUE TO A PERSISTENT
BREEZE...TEMPERATURES HAVE KEPT UP MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. A
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WAS OVER THE LONDON
PLANE OF ONTARIO HEADING ESE.

BY DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE FALLEN A LITTLE MORE...30-35
OVER THE VALLEY...MID OR UPPER 20S HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SKY WILL
RANGE FROM CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. THE BREEZE SHOULD DIMINISH A
LITTLE...BUT STILL BE 5-15 MPH OUT OF THE WEST WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUST POSSIBLE.

SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY MOST PLACES WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOW BY AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
WORK INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREA AFTER NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER
TERRAIN SO INITIALLY ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN IN
THE VALLEYS...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE ANY
PRECIPITATION STARTS...WHICH SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR...AIR TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES. BY NIGHTFALL UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS WITH LITTLE OR NONE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FROM ABOUT KINGSTON NORTHWARD...CLOUDS WILL DIM THE SUN BUT IT LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...EXCEPT BECOME LIGHT
NORTHERLY WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON
LINE...WILL MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OUT TO SEA. TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT AND CONTINUE TO COOL
FURTHER...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SNOW BY DARK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-84...MAYBE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS OF ULSTER COUNTY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE BUT EVEN IF IT HAPPENS...AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR
EVEN A SNOW ADVISORY. STILL...SOME ROADS COULD BECOME LOCALLY SLICK
THIS EVENING NEAR I-84.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THINNING
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL NORTHWEST BE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER ONE OF THE MAINLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A DEEP BLUE SKY. IT WILL
BE CHILLIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COACH
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...MID OR UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
WIND PERSISTING 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD FINALLY END OUR UNDER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT 96 DAYS. WHILE
THAT INTERVAL ITSELF IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE LONGEST SUCH
RECORD...IT WILL BE OUR SECOND LATEST DAY IN ANY GIVEN SEASON TO
OFFICIALLY REACH 50 OR HIGHER. WE ARE FORGETTING HIGHS IN THE MID
50S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THESE
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COMING SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KPOU TAF SITE...BUT WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES.

HAVE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT KPSF DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FLURRY AT KALB.

AT KPOU...HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
AFTER 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 KTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

IT WILL START OUT DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ABOUT KINGSTON SOUTH
WHERE A FAST MOVING ESE MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS VALLEY RAIN AND A SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DARK...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAPPENS...BUT
EVEN THERE BEFORE IT MOVES THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DROP
ABOUT ABOUT 60 PERCENT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VALUES 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SNOW OR RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING BY PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MEANS A FULL RECOVERY WILL
LIKELY NOT HAPPEN.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-20
MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW RANGE EXCEPT MODERATE RANGE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS ALL RAIN...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE SATURDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...SEND/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SEND/HWJIV/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 310842
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
440 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...INCLUDING SOME POSSIBLE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL
WEATHER WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFF AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE THE ALBANY AREA ITS FIRST OFFICIAL 50
PLUS DEGREE DAY ON THURSDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 430 AM EDT...STILL A FEW LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS (OR SPRINKLES
OR FLURRIES) AROUND THE REGION BUT THAT WAS ABOUT IT. THE CLOUDS
HAVE BECOME SCATTERED IN MOST AREAS. DUE TO A PERSISTENT
BREEZE...TEMPERATURES HAVE KEPT UP MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. A
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WAS OVER THE LONDON
PLANE OF ONTARIO HEADING ESE.

BY DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE FALLEN A LITTLE MORE...30-35
OVER THE VALLEY...MID OR UPPER 20S HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SKY WILL
RANGE FROM CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. THE BREEZE SHOULD DIMINISH A
LITTLE...BUT STILL BE 5-15 MPH OUT OF THE WEST WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUST POSSIBLE.

SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY MOST PLACES WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOW BY AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
WORK INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREA AFTER NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER
TERRAIN SO INITIALLY ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN IN
THE VALLEYS...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE ANY
PRECIPITATION STARTS...WHICH SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR...AIR TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES. BY NIGHTFALL UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS WITH LITTLE OR NONE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FROM ABOUT KINGSTON NORTHWARD...CLOUDS WILL DIM THE SUN BUT IT LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...EXCEPT BECOME LIGHT
NORTHERLY WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON
LINE...WILL MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OUT TO SEA. TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT AND CONTINUE TO COOL
FURTHER...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SNOW BY DARK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-84...MAYBE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS OF ULSTER COUNTY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE BUT EVEN IF IT HAPPENS...AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR
EVEN A SNOW ADVISORY. STILL...SOME ROADS COULD BECOME LOCALLY SLICK
THIS EVENING NEAR I-84.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THINNING
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL NORTHWEST BE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER ONE OF THE MAINLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A DEEP BLUE SKY. IT WILL
BE CHILLIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COACH
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...MID OR UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
WIND PERSISTING 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD FINALLY END OUR UNDER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT 96 DAYS. WHILE
THAT INTERVAL ITSELF IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE LONGEST SUCH
RECORD...IT WILL BE OUR SECOND LATEST DAY IN ANY GIVEN SEASON TO
OFFICIALLY REACH 50 OR HIGHER. WE ARE FORGETTING HIGHS IN THE MID
50S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THESE
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COMING SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KPOU TAF SITE...BUT WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES.

HAVE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT KPSF DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FLURRY AT KALB.

AT KPOU...HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
AFTER 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 KTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

IT WILL START OUT DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ABOUT KINGSTON SOUTH
WHERE A FAST MOVING ESE MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS VALLEY RAIN AND A SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DARK...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAPPENS...BUT
EVEN THERE BEFORE IT MOVES THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DROP
ABOUT ABOUT 60 PERCENT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VALUES 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SNOW OR RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING BY PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MEANS A FULL RECOVERY WILL
LIKELY NOT HAPPEN.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-20
MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW RANGE EXCEPT MODERATE RANGE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS ALL RAIN...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE SATURDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...SEND/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SEND/HWJIV/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 310842
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
440 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...INCLUDING SOME POSSIBLE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL
WEATHER WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFF AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE THE ALBANY AREA ITS FIRST OFFICIAL 50
PLUS DEGREE DAY ON THURSDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 430 AM EDT...STILL A FEW LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS (OR SPRINKLES
OR FLURRIES) AROUND THE REGION BUT THAT WAS ABOUT IT. THE CLOUDS
HAVE BECOME SCATTERED IN MOST AREAS. DUE TO A PERSISTENT
BREEZE...TEMPERATURES HAVE KEPT UP MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. A
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WAS OVER THE LONDON
PLANE OF ONTARIO HEADING ESE.

BY DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE FALLEN A LITTLE MORE...30-35
OVER THE VALLEY...MID OR UPPER 20S HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SKY WILL
RANGE FROM CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. THE BREEZE SHOULD DIMINISH A
LITTLE...BUT STILL BE 5-15 MPH OUT OF THE WEST WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUST POSSIBLE.

SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY MOST PLACES WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOW BY AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
WORK INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREA AFTER NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER
TERRAIN SO INITIALLY ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN IN
THE VALLEYS...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE ANY
PRECIPITATION STARTS...WHICH SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR...AIR TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES. BY NIGHTFALL UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS WITH LITTLE OR NONE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FROM ABOUT KINGSTON NORTHWARD...CLOUDS WILL DIM THE SUN BUT IT LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...EXCEPT BECOME LIGHT
NORTHERLY WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON
LINE...WILL MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OUT TO SEA. TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT AND CONTINUE TO COOL
FURTHER...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SNOW BY DARK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-84...MAYBE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS OF ULSTER COUNTY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE BUT EVEN IF IT HAPPENS...AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR
EVEN A SNOW ADVISORY. STILL...SOME ROADS COULD BECOME LOCALLY SLICK
THIS EVENING NEAR I-84.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THINNING
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL NORTHWEST BE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER ONE OF THE MAINLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A DEEP BLUE SKY. IT WILL
BE CHILLIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COACH
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...MID OR UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
WIND PERSISTING 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD FINALLY END OUR UNDER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT 96 DAYS. WHILE
THAT INTERVAL ITSELF IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE LONGEST SUCH
RECORD...IT WILL BE OUR SECOND LATEST DAY IN ANY GIVEN SEASON TO
OFFICIALLY REACH 50 OR HIGHER. WE ARE FORGETTING HIGHS IN THE MID
50S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THESE
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COMING SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KPOU TAF SITE...BUT WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES.

HAVE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT KPSF DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FLURRY AT KALB.

AT KPOU...HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
AFTER 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 KTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

IT WILL START OUT DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ABOUT KINGSTON SOUTH
WHERE A FAST MOVING ESE MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS VALLEY RAIN AND A SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DARK...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAPPENS...BUT
EVEN THERE BEFORE IT MOVES THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DROP
ABOUT ABOUT 60 PERCENT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VALUES 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SNOW OR RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING BY PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MEANS A FULL RECOVERY WILL
LIKELY NOT HAPPEN.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-20
MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW RANGE EXCEPT MODERATE RANGE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS ALL RAIN...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE SATURDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...SEND/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SEND/HWJIV/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 310842
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
440 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY...INCLUDING SOME POSSIBLE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE BUT COOL
WEATHER WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFF AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD GIVE THE ALBANY AREA ITS FIRST OFFICIAL 50
PLUS DEGREE DAY ON THURSDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 430 AM EDT...STILL A FEW LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS (OR SPRINKLES
OR FLURRIES) AROUND THE REGION BUT THAT WAS ABOUT IT. THE CLOUDS
HAVE BECOME SCATTERED IN MOST AREAS. DUE TO A PERSISTENT
BREEZE...TEMPERATURES HAVE KEPT UP MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. A
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WAS OVER THE LONDON
PLANE OF ONTARIO HEADING ESE.

BY DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE FALLEN A LITTLE MORE...30-35
OVER THE VALLEY...MID OR UPPER 20S HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SKY WILL
RANGE FROM CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. THE BREEZE SHOULD DIMINISH A
LITTLE...BUT STILL BE 5-15 MPH OUT OF THE WEST WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUST POSSIBLE.

SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY MOST PLACES WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOW BY AN
INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
WORK INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREA AFTER NOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS...35-40 HIGHER
TERRAIN SO INITIALLY ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN IN
THE VALLEYS...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE ANY
PRECIPITATION STARTS...WHICH SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR...AIR TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES. BY NIGHTFALL UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS WITH LITTLE OR NONE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FROM ABOUT KINGSTON NORTHWARD...CLOUDS WILL DIM THE SUN BUT IT LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH...EXCEPT BECOME LIGHT
NORTHERLY WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THE DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASON/DIXON
LINE...WILL MOVING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE THIS
EVENING...AND THEN OUT TO SEA. TRAILING DEFORMATION BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR. AS WE LOOSE DAYLIGHT AND CONTINUE TO COOL
FURTHER...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL TURN SNOW BY DARK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-84...MAYBE UP TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE CATSKILLS OF ULSTER COUNTY. WE WILL MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE BUT EVEN IF IT HAPPENS...AMOUNTS WOULD BE TOO LIGHT FOR
EVEN A SNOW ADVISORY. STILL...SOME ROADS COULD BECOME LOCALLY SLICK
THIS EVENING NEAR I-84.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THINNING
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. THE WIND WILL NORTHWEST BE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...IT WILL BE
ANOTHER ONE OF THE MAINLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A DEEP BLUE SKY. IT WILL
BE CHILLIER THAN NORMAL BUT THE SUNSHINE WILL HELP COACH
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 40 OR A LITTLE BETTER IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...MID OR UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN. WE WILL HAVE A NORTHWEST
WIND PERSISTING 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION...WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE COMBINED WITH EARLY APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD FINALLY END OUR UNDER 50 DEGREE TEMPERATURE AT 96 DAYS. WHILE
THAT INTERVAL ITSELF IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE LONGEST SUCH
RECORD...IT WILL BE OUR SECOND LATEST DAY IN ANY GIVEN SEASON TO
OFFICIALLY REACH 50 OR HIGHER. WE ARE FORGETTING HIGHS IN THE MID
50S IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WELL
NORTH OF ALBANY...AND PERHAPS UPPER 50S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT BRUSH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THESE
WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND JUST RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONT PRESSING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP QUITE A BIT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 45-50 ALBANY SOUTHWARD...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COMING SOON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KPOU TAF SITE...BUT WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES.

HAVE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT KPSF DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FLURRY AT KALB.

AT KPOU...HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
AFTER 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 KTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

IT WILL START OUT DRY TODAY AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN THAT WAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FROM ABOUT KINGSTON SOUTH
WHERE A FAST MOVING ESE MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY AS VALLEY RAIN AND A SNOW/RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DARK...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST SOUTH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAPPENS...BUT
EVEN THERE BEFORE IT MOVES THIS AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL DROP
ABOUT ABOUT 60 PERCENT...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VALUES 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SNOW OR RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING BY PARTIAL CLEARING
BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH MEANS A FULL RECOVERY WILL
LIKELY NOT HAPPEN.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY AND BRISK WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 10-20
MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE.

CLEAR AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A NORMAL RECOVERY. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH A SOUTH WIND INCREASING TO 10-20 MPH BY
AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES IN THE LOW RANGE EXCEPT MODERATE RANGE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...STARTING OUT AS ALL RAIN...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE ENDING BY LATE SATURDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS A FEW
ICE JAMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...SEND/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SEND/HWJIV/NAS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 310804
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
404 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST ABOUT ON
THE VERMONT-NEW HAMPSHIRE BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. THUS
DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE AREA AND ANY SNOW SHOWERS
OVER VERMONT WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY WITH COLDER AND
DRIER AIR MOVING IN. THUS LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TWO SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN WILL REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THUS DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EVENTUALLY THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WARMER AIR
MOVES IN WITH HIGHS ON THE THURSDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE RAIN AND THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS
ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND RIDES
ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING SOME WET SNOW TO THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A MUCH WEAKER LOW
PASSING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGS JUST A
CHANCE FOR SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT.
THEN SOME DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
BEYOND THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WEATHER PATTERN
LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE. BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES
FOR THE PERIOD WITH SOME ABOVE AND SOME BELOW NORMAL READINGS.
THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FROM 72 THRU
180 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT. LIFR AT MPV AND MVFR AT RUT AS THESE
SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS. MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO LINGER AT SLK WITH
CEILINGS. OTHER SITES ARE ALL VFR NOW. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. BKN/OVC CEILINGS WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BECOME SCATTERED.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR/SCT IFR POSSIBLE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. INDICATIONS OF SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WITH LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD WITH MVFR/IFR IMPLICATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 310804
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
404 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST ABOUT ON
THE VERMONT-NEW HAMPSHIRE BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. THUS
DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE AREA AND ANY SNOW SHOWERS
OVER VERMONT WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY WITH COLDER AND
DRIER AIR MOVING IN. THUS LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TWO SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN WILL REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THUS DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EVENTUALLY THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WARMER AIR
MOVES IN WITH HIGHS ON THE THURSDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE RAIN AND THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS
ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND RIDES
ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING SOME WET SNOW TO THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A MUCH WEAKER LOW
PASSING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGS JUST A
CHANCE FOR SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT.
THEN SOME DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
BEYOND THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WEATHER PATTERN
LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE. BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES
FOR THE PERIOD WITH SOME ABOVE AND SOME BELOW NORMAL READINGS.
THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FROM 72 THRU
180 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT. LIFR AT MPV AND MVFR AT RUT AS THESE
SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS. MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO LINGER AT SLK WITH
CEILINGS. OTHER SITES ARE ALL VFR NOW. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. BKN/OVC CEILINGS WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BECOME SCATTERED.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR/SCT IFR POSSIBLE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. INDICATIONS OF SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WITH LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD WITH MVFR/IFR IMPLICATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 310804
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
404 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST ABOUT ON
THE VERMONT-NEW HAMPSHIRE BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. THUS
DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE AREA AND ANY SNOW SHOWERS
OVER VERMONT WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY WITH COLDER AND
DRIER AIR MOVING IN. THUS LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TWO SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN WILL REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THUS DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EVENTUALLY THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WARMER AIR
MOVES IN WITH HIGHS ON THE THURSDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE RAIN AND THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS
ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND RIDES
ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING SOME WET SNOW TO THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A MUCH WEAKER LOW
PASSING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGS JUST A
CHANCE FOR SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT.
THEN SOME DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
BEYOND THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WEATHER PATTERN
LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE. BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES
FOR THE PERIOD WITH SOME ABOVE AND SOME BELOW NORMAL READINGS.
THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FROM 72 THRU
180 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT. LIFR AT MPV AND MVFR AT RUT AS THESE
SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS. MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO LINGER AT SLK WITH
CEILINGS. OTHER SITES ARE ALL VFR NOW. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. BKN/OVC CEILINGS WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BECOME SCATTERED.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR/SCT IFR POSSIBLE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. INDICATIONS OF SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WITH LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD WITH MVFR/IFR IMPLICATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 310804
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
404 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST ABOUT ON
THE VERMONT-NEW HAMPSHIRE BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. THUS
DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE AREA AND ANY SNOW SHOWERS
OVER VERMONT WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY WITH COLDER AND
DRIER AIR MOVING IN. THUS LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TWO SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN WILL REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THUS DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EVENTUALLY THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WARMER AIR
MOVES IN WITH HIGHS ON THE THURSDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE RAIN AND THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS
ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND RIDES
ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING SOME WET SNOW TO THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A MUCH WEAKER LOW
PASSING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGS JUST A
CHANCE FOR SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT.
THEN SOME DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
BEYOND THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WEATHER PATTERN
LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE. BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES
FOR THE PERIOD WITH SOME ABOVE AND SOME BELOW NORMAL READINGS.
THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FROM 72 THRU
180 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT. LIFR AT MPV AND MVFR AT RUT AS THESE
SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS. MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO LINGER AT SLK WITH
CEILINGS. OTHER SITES ARE ALL VFR NOW. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. BKN/OVC CEILINGS WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BECOME SCATTERED.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR/SCT IFR POSSIBLE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. INDICATIONS OF SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WITH LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD WITH MVFR/IFR IMPLICATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 310804
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
404 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST ABOUT ON
THE VERMONT-NEW HAMPSHIRE BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. THUS
DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE AREA AND ANY SNOW SHOWERS
OVER VERMONT WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY WITH COLDER AND
DRIER AIR MOVING IN. THUS LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TWO SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN WILL REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THUS DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EVENTUALLY THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WARMER AIR
MOVES IN WITH HIGHS ON THE THURSDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE RAIN AND THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS
ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND RIDES
ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING SOME WET SNOW TO THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A MUCH WEAKER LOW
PASSING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGS JUST A
CHANCE FOR SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT.
THEN SOME DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
BEYOND THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WEATHER PATTERN
LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE. BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES
FOR THE PERIOD WITH SOME ABOVE AND SOME BELOW NORMAL READINGS.
THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FROM 72 THRU
180 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT. LIFR AT MPV AND MVFR AT RUT AS THESE
SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS. MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO LINGER AT SLK WITH
CEILINGS. OTHER SITES ARE ALL VFR NOW. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. BKN/OVC CEILINGS WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BECOME SCATTERED.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR/SCT IFR POSSIBLE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. INDICATIONS OF SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WITH LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD WITH MVFR/IFR IMPLICATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 310804
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
404 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER AND A CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST ABOUT ON
THE VERMONT-NEW HAMPSHIRE BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. THUS
DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE AREA AND ANY SNOW SHOWERS
OVER VERMONT WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY WITH COLDER AND
DRIER AIR MOVING IN. THUS LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TWO SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS FLOW
PATTERN WILL REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THUS DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EVENTUALLY THE PATTERN CHANGES WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WARMER AIR
MOVES IN WITH HIGHS ON THE THURSDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE RAIN AND THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS
ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 404 AM EDT TUESDAY...FAIRLY ACTIVE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND RIDES
ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING SOME WET SNOW TO THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A MUCH WEAKER LOW
PASSING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGS JUST A
CHANCE FOR SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT.
THEN SOME DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
BEYOND THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WEATHER PATTERN
LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE. BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES
FOR THE PERIOD WITH SOME ABOVE AND SOME BELOW NORMAL READINGS.
THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FROM 72 THRU
180 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT. LIFR AT MPV AND MVFR AT RUT AS THESE
SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS. MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO LINGER AT SLK WITH
CEILINGS. OTHER SITES ARE ALL VFR NOW. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. BKN/OVC CEILINGS WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BECOME SCATTERED.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR/SCT IFR POSSIBLE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. INDICATIONS OF SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WITH LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD WITH MVFR/IFR IMPLICATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KALY 310546
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
146 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT...BUT A
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...STILL LOOK AT WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS (PERHAPS STILL MIXED WITH GRAUPEL) TAKING PLACE OVER THE
CWA. THIS WAS THE RESULT OF THAT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STILL
TRAVERSING ACROSS THE REGION. THAT FEATURE WILL BE TO OUR EAST BY
DAYBREAK. AS A RESULT ANY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD END BEFORE
DAYBREAK WITH LITTLE OR ACCUMULATION OF SNOW.

FOR THIS UPDATE ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKING...ACTUALLY HAD TO RAISE
SOME HOURLY TEMPS A FEW DEGREES DUE TO CLOUDS AND GOOD MIXING
KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION. HOWEVER...WE
BELIEVE THEY WILL STILL TREND TOWARD THE OVERNIGHT LOWS SO NO
CHANGES TO THEM.

WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT
SHOULD NOT GO CALM. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
CONTINUE... WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR
STRONG AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN
SHOWERY...AND WITH FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT
UPON TIME OF DAY... TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN
PLAY. THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE
SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING
SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KPOU TAF SITE...BUT WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES.

HAVE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT KPSF DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS
EMBEDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FLURRY AT KALB.

AT KPOU...HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
AFTER 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 KTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 310546
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
146 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT...BUT A
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...STILL LOOK AT WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS (PERHAPS STILL MIXED WITH GRAUPEL) TAKING PLACE OVER THE
CWA. THIS WAS THE RESULT OF THAT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STILL
TRAVERSING ACROSS THE REGION. THAT FEATURE WILL BE TO OUR EAST BY
DAYBREAK. AS A RESULT ANY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD END BEFORE
DAYBREAK WITH LITTLE OR ACCUMULATION OF SNOW.

FOR THIS UPDATE ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKING...ACTUALLY HAD TO RAISE
SOME HOURLY TEMPS A FEW DEGREES DUE TO CLOUDS AND GOOD MIXING
KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION. HOWEVER...WE
BELIEVE THEY WILL STILL TREND TOWARD THE OVERNIGHT LOWS SO NO
CHANGES TO THEM.

WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT
SHOULD NOT GO CALM. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
CONTINUE... WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR
STRONG AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN
SHOWERY...AND WITH FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT
UPON TIME OF DAY... TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN
PLAY. THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE
SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING
SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KPOU TAF SITE...BUT WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES.

HAVE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT KPSF DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS
EMBEDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FLURRY AT KALB.

AT KPOU...HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
AFTER 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 KTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 310546
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
146 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT...BUT A
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...STILL LOOK AT WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS (PERHAPS STILL MIXED WITH GRAUPEL) TAKING PLACE OVER THE
CWA. THIS WAS THE RESULT OF THAT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STILL
TRAVERSING ACROSS THE REGION. THAT FEATURE WILL BE TO OUR EAST BY
DAYBREAK. AS A RESULT ANY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD END BEFORE
DAYBREAK WITH LITTLE OR ACCUMULATION OF SNOW.

FOR THIS UPDATE ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKING...ACTUALLY HAD TO RAISE
SOME HOURLY TEMPS A FEW DEGREES DUE TO CLOUDS AND GOOD MIXING
KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION. HOWEVER...WE
BELIEVE THEY WILL STILL TREND TOWARD THE OVERNIGHT LOWS SO NO
CHANGES TO THEM.

WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT
SHOULD NOT GO CALM. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
CONTINUE... WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR
STRONG AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN
SHOWERY...AND WITH FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT
UPON TIME OF DAY... TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN
PLAY. THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE
SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING
SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE KPOU TAF SITE...BUT WILL BE
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SNOW AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES.

HAVE FORECAST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF
SITES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT KPSF DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS
EMBEDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF A FLURRY AT KALB.

AT KPOU...HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THAT AREA.
AFTER 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO KPOU.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 6 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 KTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 310523
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
123 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
A SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL ALSO PROVIDE
THE AREA WITH ITS NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 123 AM EDT TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING HAS ENHANCED AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF VERMONT...WHICH WILL LAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE DYNAMIC SUPPORT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. GOING FORECAST
HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND ONLY TWEAK AT THIS TIME WAS TO ADJUST
DEW POINTS JUST A BIT TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM EDT MONDAY...DEFAULT RIDGING DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY
BETWEEN THE EXITING SYSTEM AND ANOTHER LOW DIVING SOUTH OF THE
REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE BRIEFLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE
DAY...SO SOME MORNING LINGERING OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES EARLY WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
MOST IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT
ALSO LIKELY FROM THE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
30S TO NEAR 40.

NORTHWEST FLOW RE-STRENGTHENS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL BE DRIER...SO ONLY SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING IF THE WINDS AND
ANY CLOUDS ALLOW FOR LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE OR NOT. RIGHT NOW
RUNNING WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FOR MOST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS
IN THE FAR NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES STILL ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AREA-
WIDE. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NIGHT WILL START CALM AND CLEAR...BUT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONTAL FEATURE. LOWS OCCUR EARLY...IN THE TEENS/20S BEFORE
RISING TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING A RATHER
ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
DURING THE THURSDAY TO SUNDAY TIME FRAME. THUS PRIOR FORECAST IDEA
OF THE TYPICAL EARLY SPRING UPS AND DOWNS IN TEMPERATURE AND
FREQUENT BOUTS OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH THIS PACKAGE. MOST ACTIVE STRETCH IN THE
PERIOD WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY
WHEN THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A POTENTIAL
FRONTAL WAVE WILL BRING SCT/NUMEROUS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND A
POSSIBLE PERIOD OF STEADIER WET SNOW. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
MILD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
BEST SHOT AT A STEADIER ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS TO OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT WHEN AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS TO OUR IMMEDIATE
SOUTH. GFS HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH FROM ITS PRIOR RUNS, IN
CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH LAST NIGHTS (AND CURRENT) EURO OUTPUT,
THOUGH ADMITTEDLY THE EURO IS CONSIDERABLY MILDER WITH ITS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES. TIME WILL TELL IN REGARD TO PTYPE. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER, TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO EXHIBIT A TYPICAL UP
AND DOWN PATTERN OF EARLY SPRINGTIME WITH MILDEST VALUES (40S TO
LOWER 50S) OCCURRING THU/FRI FOLLOWED BY A STEADY COOLDOWN BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHEN HIGHS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS/20S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT. LIFR AT MPV AND MVFR AT RUT AS THESE
SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS. MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO LINGER AT SLK WITH
CEILINGS. OTHER SITES ARE ALL VFR NOW. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. BKN/OVC CEILINGS WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BECOME SCATTERED.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR/SCT IFR POSSIBLE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. INDICATIONS OF SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WITH LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD WITH MVFR/IFR IMPLICATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 310523
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
123 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
A SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL ALSO PROVIDE
THE AREA WITH ITS NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 123 AM EDT TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING HAS ENHANCED AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF VERMONT...WHICH WILL LAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE DYNAMIC SUPPORT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. GOING FORECAST
HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND ONLY TWEAK AT THIS TIME WAS TO ADJUST
DEW POINTS JUST A BIT TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM EDT MONDAY...DEFAULT RIDGING DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY
BETWEEN THE EXITING SYSTEM AND ANOTHER LOW DIVING SOUTH OF THE
REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE BRIEFLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE
DAY...SO SOME MORNING LINGERING OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES EARLY WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
MOST IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT
ALSO LIKELY FROM THE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
30S TO NEAR 40.

NORTHWEST FLOW RE-STRENGTHENS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL BE DRIER...SO ONLY SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING IF THE WINDS AND
ANY CLOUDS ALLOW FOR LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE OR NOT. RIGHT NOW
RUNNING WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FOR MOST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS
IN THE FAR NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES STILL ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AREA-
WIDE. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NIGHT WILL START CALM AND CLEAR...BUT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONTAL FEATURE. LOWS OCCUR EARLY...IN THE TEENS/20S BEFORE
RISING TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING A RATHER
ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
DURING THE THURSDAY TO SUNDAY TIME FRAME. THUS PRIOR FORECAST IDEA
OF THE TYPICAL EARLY SPRING UPS AND DOWNS IN TEMPERATURE AND
FREQUENT BOUTS OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH THIS PACKAGE. MOST ACTIVE STRETCH IN THE
PERIOD WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY
WHEN THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A POTENTIAL
FRONTAL WAVE WILL BRING SCT/NUMEROUS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND A
POSSIBLE PERIOD OF STEADIER WET SNOW. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
MILD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
BEST SHOT AT A STEADIER ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS TO OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT WHEN AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS TO OUR IMMEDIATE
SOUTH. GFS HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH FROM ITS PRIOR RUNS, IN
CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH LAST NIGHTS (AND CURRENT) EURO OUTPUT,
THOUGH ADMITTEDLY THE EURO IS CONSIDERABLY MILDER WITH ITS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES. TIME WILL TELL IN REGARD TO PTYPE. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER, TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO EXHIBIT A TYPICAL UP
AND DOWN PATTERN OF EARLY SPRINGTIME WITH MILDEST VALUES (40S TO
LOWER 50S) OCCURRING THU/FRI FOLLOWED BY A STEADY COOLDOWN BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHEN HIGHS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS/20S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT. LIFR AT MPV AND MVFR AT RUT AS THESE
SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS. MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO LINGER AT SLK WITH
CEILINGS. OTHER SITES ARE ALL VFR NOW. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. BKN/OVC CEILINGS WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BECOME SCATTERED.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR/SCT IFR POSSIBLE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. INDICATIONS OF SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WITH LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD WITH MVFR/IFR IMPLICATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 310523
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
123 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
A SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL ALSO PROVIDE
THE AREA WITH ITS NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 123 AM EDT TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING HAS ENHANCED AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF VERMONT...WHICH WILL LAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE DYNAMIC SUPPORT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. GOING FORECAST
HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND ONLY TWEAK AT THIS TIME WAS TO ADJUST
DEW POINTS JUST A BIT TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM EDT MONDAY...DEFAULT RIDGING DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY
BETWEEN THE EXITING SYSTEM AND ANOTHER LOW DIVING SOUTH OF THE
REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE BRIEFLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE
DAY...SO SOME MORNING LINGERING OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES EARLY WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
MOST IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT
ALSO LIKELY FROM THE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
30S TO NEAR 40.

NORTHWEST FLOW RE-STRENGTHENS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL BE DRIER...SO ONLY SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING IF THE WINDS AND
ANY CLOUDS ALLOW FOR LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE OR NOT. RIGHT NOW
RUNNING WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FOR MOST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS
IN THE FAR NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES STILL ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AREA-
WIDE. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NIGHT WILL START CALM AND CLEAR...BUT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONTAL FEATURE. LOWS OCCUR EARLY...IN THE TEENS/20S BEFORE
RISING TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING A RATHER
ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
DURING THE THURSDAY TO SUNDAY TIME FRAME. THUS PRIOR FORECAST IDEA
OF THE TYPICAL EARLY SPRING UPS AND DOWNS IN TEMPERATURE AND
FREQUENT BOUTS OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH THIS PACKAGE. MOST ACTIVE STRETCH IN THE
PERIOD WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY
WHEN THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A POTENTIAL
FRONTAL WAVE WILL BRING SCT/NUMEROUS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND A
POSSIBLE PERIOD OF STEADIER WET SNOW. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
MILD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
BEST SHOT AT A STEADIER ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS TO OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT WHEN AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS TO OUR IMMEDIATE
SOUTH. GFS HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH FROM ITS PRIOR RUNS, IN
CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH LAST NIGHTS (AND CURRENT) EURO OUTPUT,
THOUGH ADMITTEDLY THE EURO IS CONSIDERABLY MILDER WITH ITS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES. TIME WILL TELL IN REGARD TO PTYPE. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER, TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO EXHIBIT A TYPICAL UP
AND DOWN PATTERN OF EARLY SPRINGTIME WITH MILDEST VALUES (40S TO
LOWER 50S) OCCURRING THU/FRI FOLLOWED BY A STEADY COOLDOWN BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHEN HIGHS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS/20S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT. LIFR AT MPV AND MVFR AT RUT AS THESE
SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS. MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO LINGER AT SLK WITH
CEILINGS. OTHER SITES ARE ALL VFR NOW. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. BKN/OVC CEILINGS WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BECOME SCATTERED.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR/SCT IFR POSSIBLE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. INDICATIONS OF SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WITH LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD WITH MVFR/IFR IMPLICATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 310523
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
123 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
A SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL ALSO PROVIDE
THE AREA WITH ITS NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 123 AM EDT TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING HAS ENHANCED AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF VERMONT...WHICH WILL LAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE DYNAMIC SUPPORT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. GOING FORECAST
HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND ONLY TWEAK AT THIS TIME WAS TO ADJUST
DEW POINTS JUST A BIT TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM EDT MONDAY...DEFAULT RIDGING DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY
BETWEEN THE EXITING SYSTEM AND ANOTHER LOW DIVING SOUTH OF THE
REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE BRIEFLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE
DAY...SO SOME MORNING LINGERING OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES EARLY WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
MOST IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT
ALSO LIKELY FROM THE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
30S TO NEAR 40.

NORTHWEST FLOW RE-STRENGTHENS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL BE DRIER...SO ONLY SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING IF THE WINDS AND
ANY CLOUDS ALLOW FOR LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE OR NOT. RIGHT NOW
RUNNING WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FOR MOST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS
IN THE FAR NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES STILL ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AREA-
WIDE. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NIGHT WILL START CALM AND CLEAR...BUT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONTAL FEATURE. LOWS OCCUR EARLY...IN THE TEENS/20S BEFORE
RISING TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING A RATHER
ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
DURING THE THURSDAY TO SUNDAY TIME FRAME. THUS PRIOR FORECAST IDEA
OF THE TYPICAL EARLY SPRING UPS AND DOWNS IN TEMPERATURE AND
FREQUENT BOUTS OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH THIS PACKAGE. MOST ACTIVE STRETCH IN THE
PERIOD WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY
WHEN THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A POTENTIAL
FRONTAL WAVE WILL BRING SCT/NUMEROUS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND A
POSSIBLE PERIOD OF STEADIER WET SNOW. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
MILD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
BEST SHOT AT A STEADIER ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS TO OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT WHEN AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS TO OUR IMMEDIATE
SOUTH. GFS HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH FROM ITS PRIOR RUNS, IN
CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH LAST NIGHTS (AND CURRENT) EURO OUTPUT,
THOUGH ADMITTEDLY THE EURO IS CONSIDERABLY MILDER WITH ITS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES. TIME WILL TELL IN REGARD TO PTYPE. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER, TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO EXHIBIT A TYPICAL UP
AND DOWN PATTERN OF EARLY SPRINGTIME WITH MILDEST VALUES (40S TO
LOWER 50S) OCCURRING THU/FRI FOLLOWED BY A STEADY COOLDOWN BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHEN HIGHS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS/20S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT. LIFR AT MPV AND MVFR AT RUT AS THESE
SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS. MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO LINGER AT SLK WITH
CEILINGS. OTHER SITES ARE ALL VFR NOW. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. BKN/OVC CEILINGS WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BECOME SCATTERED.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR/SCT IFR POSSIBLE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. INDICATIONS OF SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WITH LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD WITH MVFR/IFR IMPLICATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 310523
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
123 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
A SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL ALSO PROVIDE
THE AREA WITH ITS NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 123 AM EDT TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING HAS ENHANCED AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF VERMONT...WHICH WILL LAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE DYNAMIC SUPPORT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. GOING FORECAST
HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND ONLY TWEAK AT THIS TIME WAS TO ADJUST
DEW POINTS JUST A BIT TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM EDT MONDAY...DEFAULT RIDGING DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY
BETWEEN THE EXITING SYSTEM AND ANOTHER LOW DIVING SOUTH OF THE
REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE BRIEFLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE
DAY...SO SOME MORNING LINGERING OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES EARLY WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
MOST IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT
ALSO LIKELY FROM THE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
30S TO NEAR 40.

NORTHWEST FLOW RE-STRENGTHENS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL BE DRIER...SO ONLY SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING IF THE WINDS AND
ANY CLOUDS ALLOW FOR LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE OR NOT. RIGHT NOW
RUNNING WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FOR MOST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS
IN THE FAR NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES STILL ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AREA-
WIDE. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NIGHT WILL START CALM AND CLEAR...BUT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONTAL FEATURE. LOWS OCCUR EARLY...IN THE TEENS/20S BEFORE
RISING TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING A RATHER
ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
DURING THE THURSDAY TO SUNDAY TIME FRAME. THUS PRIOR FORECAST IDEA
OF THE TYPICAL EARLY SPRING UPS AND DOWNS IN TEMPERATURE AND
FREQUENT BOUTS OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH THIS PACKAGE. MOST ACTIVE STRETCH IN THE
PERIOD WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY
WHEN THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A POTENTIAL
FRONTAL WAVE WILL BRING SCT/NUMEROUS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND A
POSSIBLE PERIOD OF STEADIER WET SNOW. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
MILD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
BEST SHOT AT A STEADIER ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS TO OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT WHEN AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS TO OUR IMMEDIATE
SOUTH. GFS HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH FROM ITS PRIOR RUNS, IN
CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH LAST NIGHTS (AND CURRENT) EURO OUTPUT,
THOUGH ADMITTEDLY THE EURO IS CONSIDERABLY MILDER WITH ITS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES. TIME WILL TELL IN REGARD TO PTYPE. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER, TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO EXHIBIT A TYPICAL UP
AND DOWN PATTERN OF EARLY SPRINGTIME WITH MILDEST VALUES (40S TO
LOWER 50S) OCCURRING THU/FRI FOLLOWED BY A STEADY COOLDOWN BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHEN HIGHS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS/20S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT. LIFR AT MPV AND MVFR AT RUT AS THESE
SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS. MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO LINGER AT SLK WITH
CEILINGS. OTHER SITES ARE ALL VFR NOW. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. BKN/OVC CEILINGS WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BECOME SCATTERED.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR/SCT IFR POSSIBLE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. INDICATIONS OF SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WITH LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD WITH MVFR/IFR IMPLICATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 310523
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
123 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
A SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL ALSO PROVIDE
THE AREA WITH ITS NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 123 AM EDT TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING HAS ENHANCED AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF VERMONT...WHICH WILL LAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE DYNAMIC SUPPORT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. GOING FORECAST
HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND ONLY TWEAK AT THIS TIME WAS TO ADJUST
DEW POINTS JUST A BIT TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM EDT MONDAY...DEFAULT RIDGING DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY
BETWEEN THE EXITING SYSTEM AND ANOTHER LOW DIVING SOUTH OF THE
REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE BRIEFLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE
DAY...SO SOME MORNING LINGERING OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES EARLY WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
MOST IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT
ALSO LIKELY FROM THE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
30S TO NEAR 40.

NORTHWEST FLOW RE-STRENGTHENS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL BE DRIER...SO ONLY SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING IF THE WINDS AND
ANY CLOUDS ALLOW FOR LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE OR NOT. RIGHT NOW
RUNNING WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FOR MOST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS
IN THE FAR NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES STILL ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AREA-
WIDE. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NIGHT WILL START CALM AND CLEAR...BUT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONTAL FEATURE. LOWS OCCUR EARLY...IN THE TEENS/20S BEFORE
RISING TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING A RATHER
ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
DURING THE THURSDAY TO SUNDAY TIME FRAME. THUS PRIOR FORECAST IDEA
OF THE TYPICAL EARLY SPRING UPS AND DOWNS IN TEMPERATURE AND
FREQUENT BOUTS OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH THIS PACKAGE. MOST ACTIVE STRETCH IN THE
PERIOD WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY
WHEN THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A POTENTIAL
FRONTAL WAVE WILL BRING SCT/NUMEROUS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND A
POSSIBLE PERIOD OF STEADIER WET SNOW. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
MILD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
BEST SHOT AT A STEADIER ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS TO OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT WHEN AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS TO OUR IMMEDIATE
SOUTH. GFS HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH FROM ITS PRIOR RUNS, IN
CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH LAST NIGHTS (AND CURRENT) EURO OUTPUT,
THOUGH ADMITTEDLY THE EURO IS CONSIDERABLY MILDER WITH ITS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES. TIME WILL TELL IN REGARD TO PTYPE. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER, TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO EXHIBIT A TYPICAL UP
AND DOWN PATTERN OF EARLY SPRINGTIME WITH MILDEST VALUES (40S TO
LOWER 50S) OCCURRING THU/FRI FOLLOWED BY A STEADY COOLDOWN BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHEN HIGHS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS/20S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT. LIFR AT MPV AND MVFR AT RUT AS THESE
SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS. MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO LINGER AT SLK WITH
CEILINGS. OTHER SITES ARE ALL VFR NOW. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. BKN/OVC CEILINGS WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BECOME SCATTERED.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR/SCT IFR POSSIBLE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. INDICATIONS OF SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WITH LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD WITH MVFR/IFR IMPLICATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KALY 310513
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
108 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT...BUT A
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 115 AM EDT...STILL LOOK AT WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS (PERHAPS STILL MIXED WITH GRAUPEL) TAKING PLACE OVER THE
CWA. THIS WAS THE RESULT OF THAT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STILL
TRAVERSING ACROSS THE REGION. THAT FEATURE WILL BE TO OUR EAST BY
DAYBREAK. AS A RESULT ANY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD END BEFORE
DAYBREAK WITH LITTLE OR ACCUMULATION OF SNOW.

FOR THIS UPDATE ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKING...ACTUALLY HAD TO RAISE
SOME HOURLY TEMPS A FEW DEGREES DUE TO CLOUDS AND GOOD MIXING
KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION. HOWEVER...WE
BELIEVE THEY WILL STILL TREND TOWARD THE OVERNIGHT LOWS SO NO
CHANGES TO THEM.

WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT
SHOULD NOT GO CALM. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
CONTINUE... WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR
STRONG AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN
SHOWERY...AND WITH FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT
UPON TIME OF DAY... TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN
PLAY. THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE
SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING
SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AT 7-14 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 22 KTS AT KALB. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SEND/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SEND/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 310513
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
108 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT...BUT A
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 115 AM EDT...STILL LOOK AT WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS (PERHAPS STILL MIXED WITH GRAUPEL) TAKING PLACE OVER THE
CWA. THIS WAS THE RESULT OF THAT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STILL
TRAVERSING ACROSS THE REGION. THAT FEATURE WILL BE TO OUR EAST BY
DAYBREAK. AS A RESULT ANY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD END BEFORE
DAYBREAK WITH LITTLE OR ACCUMULATION OF SNOW.

FOR THIS UPDATE ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKING...ACTUALLY HAD TO RAISE
SOME HOURLY TEMPS A FEW DEGREES DUE TO CLOUDS AND GOOD MIXING
KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION. HOWEVER...WE
BELIEVE THEY WILL STILL TREND TOWARD THE OVERNIGHT LOWS SO NO
CHANGES TO THEM.

WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT
SHOULD NOT GO CALM. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
CONTINUE... WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR
STRONG AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN
SHOWERY...AND WITH FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT
UPON TIME OF DAY... TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN
PLAY. THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE
SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING
SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AT 7-14 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 22 KTS AT KALB. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SEND/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SEND/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 310513
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
108 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT...BUT A
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 115 AM EDT...STILL LOOK AT WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS (PERHAPS STILL MIXED WITH GRAUPEL) TAKING PLACE OVER THE
CWA. THIS WAS THE RESULT OF THAT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STILL
TRAVERSING ACROSS THE REGION. THAT FEATURE WILL BE TO OUR EAST BY
DAYBREAK. AS A RESULT ANY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD END BEFORE
DAYBREAK WITH LITTLE OR ACCUMULATION OF SNOW.

FOR THIS UPDATE ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKING...ACTUALLY HAD TO RAISE
SOME HOURLY TEMPS A FEW DEGREES DUE TO CLOUDS AND GOOD MIXING
KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION. HOWEVER...WE
BELIEVE THEY WILL STILL TREND TOWARD THE OVERNIGHT LOWS SO NO
CHANGES TO THEM.

WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT
SHOULD NOT GO CALM. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
CONTINUE... WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR
STRONG AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN
SHOWERY...AND WITH FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT
UPON TIME OF DAY... TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN
PLAY. THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE
SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING
SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AT 7-14 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 22 KTS AT KALB. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SEND/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SEND/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 310513
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
108 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT...BUT A
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

AS OF 115 AM EDT...STILL LOOK AT WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS (PERHAPS STILL MIXED WITH GRAUPEL) TAKING PLACE OVER THE
CWA. THIS WAS THE RESULT OF THAT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STILL
TRAVERSING ACROSS THE REGION. THAT FEATURE WILL BE TO OUR EAST BY
DAYBREAK. AS A RESULT ANY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD END BEFORE
DAYBREAK WITH LITTLE OR ACCUMULATION OF SNOW.

FOR THIS UPDATE ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKING...ACTUALLY HAD TO RAISE
SOME HOURLY TEMPS A FEW DEGREES DUE TO CLOUDS AND GOOD MIXING
KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION. HOWEVER...WE
BELIEVE THEY WILL STILL TREND TOWARD THE OVERNIGHT LOWS SO NO
CHANGES TO THEM.

WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT
SHOULD NOT GO CALM. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
CONTINUE... WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR
STRONG AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN
SHOWERY...AND WITH FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT
UPON TIME OF DAY... TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN
PLAY. THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE
SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING
SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AT 7-14 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 22 KTS AT KALB. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SEND/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SEND/NAS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 310509
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
109 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS END FOR MOST THIS EVENING WITH SOME
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. COOL AND DRIER
CONDITIONS MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SYSTEM PASSES
SOUTH OF THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL ALSO PROVIDE THE AREA WITH ITS
NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT MONDAY...COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AT THIS TIME WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS REST OF
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS FORECAST AREA. COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND
BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AS WINDS SHIFT INTO
THE NORTHWEST AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS. GOING FORECAST
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. WITH LATEST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO
HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/POPS FOR NEXT FEW HOURS
TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 336 PM... INITIAL FRONTAL FEATURE AND
WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS CROSSED THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A
SECOND WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER
AIR LIES BACK NEAR OTTAWA AND WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING. THERE ARE SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND COVERAGE
SHOULD INCREASE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY FRONT.
SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS ALSO INDICATING A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED
LINE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP DIRECTLY WITH THE FRONT AND
CROSS THE AREA FROM 21-03Z. BEHIND FRONT AS WINDS TURN
NORTHWEST...A PERIOD OF UNBLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENSUE WITH
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE GREEN MOUNTAINS/ADIRONDACKS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE LARGER
CHAMPLAIN...SAINT LAWRENCE...AND CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEYS...AND
ONLY A T-1" AT MOST IN THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWER TERRAIN. HOWEVER
SOME OF THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS MAY FIND SEVERAL INCHES BY MORNING.
LOWS WILL OCCUR LATE...GENERALLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM EDT MONDAY...DEFAULT RIDGING DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY
BETWEEN THE EXITING SYSTEM AND ANOTHER LOW DIVING SOUTH OF THE
REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE BRIEFLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE
DAY...SO SOME MORNING LINGERING OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES EARLY WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
MOST IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT
ALSO LIKELY FROM THE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
30S TO NEAR 40.

NORTHWEST FLOW RE-STRENGTHENS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL BE DRIER...SO ONLY SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING IF THE WINDS AND
ANY CLOUDS ALLOW FOR LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE OR NOT. RIGHT NOW
RUNNING WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FOR MOST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS
IN THE FAR NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES STILL ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AREA-
WIDE. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NIGHT WILL START CALM AND CLEAR...BUT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONTAL FEATURE. LOWS OCCUR EARLY...IN THE TEENS/20S BEFORE
RISING TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING A RATHER
ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
DURING THE THURSDAY TO SUNDAY TIME FRAME. THUS PRIOR FORECAST IDEA
OF THE TYPICAL EARLY SPRING UPS AND DOWNS IN TEMPERATURE AND
FREQUENT BOUTS OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH THIS PACKAGE. MOST ACTIVE STRETCH IN THE
PERIOD WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY
WHEN THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A POTENTIAL
FRONTAL WAVE WILL BRING SCT/NUMEROUS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND A
POSSIBLE PERIOD OF STEADIER WET SNOW. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
MILD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
BEST SHOT AT A STEADIER ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS TO OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT WHEN AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS TO OUR IMMEDIATE
SOUTH. GFS HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH FROM ITS PRIOR RUNS, IN
CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH LAST NIGHTS (AND CURRENT) EURO OUTPUT,
THOUGH ADMITTEDLY THE EURO IS CONSIDERABLY MILDER WITH ITS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES. TIME WILL TELL IN REGARD TO PTYPE. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER, TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO EXHIBIT A TYPICAL UP
AND DOWN PATTERN OF EARLY SPRINGTIME WITH MILDEST VALUES (40S TO
LOWER 50S) OCCURRING THU/FRI FOLLOWED BY A STEADY COOLDOWN BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHEN HIGHS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS/20S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT. LIFR AT MPV AND MVFR AT RUT AS THESE
SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS. MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO LINGER AT SLK WITH
CEILINGS. OTHER SITES ARE ALL VFR NOW. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. BKN/OVC CEILINGS WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BECOME SCATTERED.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR/SCT IFR POSSIBLE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. INDICATIONS OF SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WITH LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD WITH MVFR/IFR IMPLICATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 310509
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
109 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS END FOR MOST THIS EVENING WITH SOME
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. COOL AND DRIER
CONDITIONS MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SYSTEM PASSES
SOUTH OF THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL ALSO PROVIDE THE AREA WITH ITS
NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT MONDAY...COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AT THIS TIME WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS REST OF
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS FORECAST AREA. COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND
BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AS WINDS SHIFT INTO
THE NORTHWEST AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS. GOING FORECAST
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. WITH LATEST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO
HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/POPS FOR NEXT FEW HOURS
TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 336 PM... INITIAL FRONTAL FEATURE AND
WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS CROSSED THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A
SECOND WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER
AIR LIES BACK NEAR OTTAWA AND WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING. THERE ARE SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND COVERAGE
SHOULD INCREASE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY FRONT.
SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS ALSO INDICATING A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED
LINE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP DIRECTLY WITH THE FRONT AND
CROSS THE AREA FROM 21-03Z. BEHIND FRONT AS WINDS TURN
NORTHWEST...A PERIOD OF UNBLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENSUE WITH
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE GREEN MOUNTAINS/ADIRONDACKS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE LARGER
CHAMPLAIN...SAINT LAWRENCE...AND CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEYS...AND
ONLY A T-1" AT MOST IN THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWER TERRAIN. HOWEVER
SOME OF THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS MAY FIND SEVERAL INCHES BY MORNING.
LOWS WILL OCCUR LATE...GENERALLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM EDT MONDAY...DEFAULT RIDGING DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY
BETWEEN THE EXITING SYSTEM AND ANOTHER LOW DIVING SOUTH OF THE
REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE BRIEFLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE
DAY...SO SOME MORNING LINGERING OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES EARLY WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
MOST IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT
ALSO LIKELY FROM THE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
30S TO NEAR 40.

NORTHWEST FLOW RE-STRENGTHENS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL BE DRIER...SO ONLY SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING IF THE WINDS AND
ANY CLOUDS ALLOW FOR LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE OR NOT. RIGHT NOW
RUNNING WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FOR MOST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS
IN THE FAR NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES STILL ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AREA-
WIDE. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NIGHT WILL START CALM AND CLEAR...BUT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONTAL FEATURE. LOWS OCCUR EARLY...IN THE TEENS/20S BEFORE
RISING TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING A RATHER
ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
DURING THE THURSDAY TO SUNDAY TIME FRAME. THUS PRIOR FORECAST IDEA
OF THE TYPICAL EARLY SPRING UPS AND DOWNS IN TEMPERATURE AND
FREQUENT BOUTS OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH THIS PACKAGE. MOST ACTIVE STRETCH IN THE
PERIOD WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY
WHEN THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A POTENTIAL
FRONTAL WAVE WILL BRING SCT/NUMEROUS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND A
POSSIBLE PERIOD OF STEADIER WET SNOW. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
MILD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
BEST SHOT AT A STEADIER ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS TO OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT WHEN AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS TO OUR IMMEDIATE
SOUTH. GFS HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH FROM ITS PRIOR RUNS, IN
CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH LAST NIGHTS (AND CURRENT) EURO OUTPUT,
THOUGH ADMITTEDLY THE EURO IS CONSIDERABLY MILDER WITH ITS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES. TIME WILL TELL IN REGARD TO PTYPE. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER, TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO EXHIBIT A TYPICAL UP
AND DOWN PATTERN OF EARLY SPRINGTIME WITH MILDEST VALUES (40S TO
LOWER 50S) OCCURRING THU/FRI FOLLOWED BY A STEADY COOLDOWN BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHEN HIGHS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS/20S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT. LIFR AT MPV AND MVFR AT RUT AS THESE
SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS. MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO LINGER AT SLK WITH
CEILINGS. OTHER SITES ARE ALL VFR NOW. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. BKN/OVC CEILINGS WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BECOME SCATTERED.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR/SCT IFR POSSIBLE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. INDICATIONS OF SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WITH LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD WITH MVFR/IFR IMPLICATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES



000
FXUS61 KBTV 310509
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
109 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS END FOR MOST THIS EVENING WITH SOME
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. COOL AND DRIER
CONDITIONS MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SYSTEM PASSES
SOUTH OF THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL ALSO PROVIDE THE AREA WITH ITS
NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT MONDAY...COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AT THIS TIME WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS REST OF
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS FORECAST AREA. COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND
BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AS WINDS SHIFT INTO
THE NORTHWEST AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS. GOING FORECAST
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. WITH LATEST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO
HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/POPS FOR NEXT FEW HOURS
TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 336 PM... INITIAL FRONTAL FEATURE AND
WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS CROSSED THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A
SECOND WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER
AIR LIES BACK NEAR OTTAWA AND WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING. THERE ARE SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND COVERAGE
SHOULD INCREASE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY FRONT.
SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS ALSO INDICATING A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED
LINE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP DIRECTLY WITH THE FRONT AND
CROSS THE AREA FROM 21-03Z. BEHIND FRONT AS WINDS TURN
NORTHWEST...A PERIOD OF UNBLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENSUE WITH
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE GREEN MOUNTAINS/ADIRONDACKS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE LARGER
CHAMPLAIN...SAINT LAWRENCE...AND CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEYS...AND
ONLY A T-1" AT MOST IN THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWER TERRAIN. HOWEVER
SOME OF THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS MAY FIND SEVERAL INCHES BY MORNING.
LOWS WILL OCCUR LATE...GENERALLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM EDT MONDAY...DEFAULT RIDGING DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY
BETWEEN THE EXITING SYSTEM AND ANOTHER LOW DIVING SOUTH OF THE
REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE BRIEFLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE
DAY...SO SOME MORNING LINGERING OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES EARLY WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
MOST IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT
ALSO LIKELY FROM THE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
30S TO NEAR 40.

NORTHWEST FLOW RE-STRENGTHENS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL BE DRIER...SO ONLY SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING IF THE WINDS AND
ANY CLOUDS ALLOW FOR LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE OR NOT. RIGHT NOW
RUNNING WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FOR MOST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS
IN THE FAR NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES STILL ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AREA-
WIDE. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NIGHT WILL START CALM AND CLEAR...BUT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONTAL FEATURE. LOWS OCCUR EARLY...IN THE TEENS/20S BEFORE
RISING TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING A RATHER
ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
DURING THE THURSDAY TO SUNDAY TIME FRAME. THUS PRIOR FORECAST IDEA
OF THE TYPICAL EARLY SPRING UPS AND DOWNS IN TEMPERATURE AND
FREQUENT BOUTS OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH THIS PACKAGE. MOST ACTIVE STRETCH IN THE
PERIOD WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY
WHEN THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A POTENTIAL
FRONTAL WAVE WILL BRING SCT/NUMEROUS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND A
POSSIBLE PERIOD OF STEADIER WET SNOW. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
MILD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
BEST SHOT AT A STEADIER ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS TO OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT WHEN AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS TO OUR IMMEDIATE
SOUTH. GFS HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH FROM ITS PRIOR RUNS, IN
CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH LAST NIGHTS (AND CURRENT) EURO OUTPUT,
THOUGH ADMITTEDLY THE EURO IS CONSIDERABLY MILDER WITH ITS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES. TIME WILL TELL IN REGARD TO PTYPE. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER, TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO EXHIBIT A TYPICAL UP
AND DOWN PATTERN OF EARLY SPRINGTIME WITH MILDEST VALUES (40S TO
LOWER 50S) OCCURRING THU/FRI FOLLOWED BY A STEADY COOLDOWN BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHEN HIGHS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS/20S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT. LIFR AT MPV AND MVFR AT RUT AS THESE
SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS. MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO LINGER AT SLK WITH
CEILINGS. OTHER SITES ARE ALL VFR NOW. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. BKN/OVC CEILINGS WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BECOME SCATTERED.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR/SCT IFR POSSIBLE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. INDICATIONS OF SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WITH LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD WITH MVFR/IFR IMPLICATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 310509
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
109 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS END FOR MOST THIS EVENING WITH SOME
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. COOL AND DRIER
CONDITIONS MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SYSTEM PASSES
SOUTH OF THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL ALSO PROVIDE THE AREA WITH ITS
NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT MONDAY...COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AT THIS TIME WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS REST OF
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS FORECAST AREA. COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND
BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AS WINDS SHIFT INTO
THE NORTHWEST AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS. GOING FORECAST
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. WITH LATEST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO
HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/POPS FOR NEXT FEW HOURS
TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 336 PM... INITIAL FRONTAL FEATURE AND
WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS CROSSED THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A
SECOND WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER
AIR LIES BACK NEAR OTTAWA AND WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING. THERE ARE SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND COVERAGE
SHOULD INCREASE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY FRONT.
SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS ALSO INDICATING A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED
LINE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP DIRECTLY WITH THE FRONT AND
CROSS THE AREA FROM 21-03Z. BEHIND FRONT AS WINDS TURN
NORTHWEST...A PERIOD OF UNBLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENSUE WITH
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE GREEN MOUNTAINS/ADIRONDACKS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE LARGER
CHAMPLAIN...SAINT LAWRENCE...AND CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEYS...AND
ONLY A T-1" AT MOST IN THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWER TERRAIN. HOWEVER
SOME OF THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS MAY FIND SEVERAL INCHES BY MORNING.
LOWS WILL OCCUR LATE...GENERALLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM EDT MONDAY...DEFAULT RIDGING DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY
BETWEEN THE EXITING SYSTEM AND ANOTHER LOW DIVING SOUTH OF THE
REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE BRIEFLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE
DAY...SO SOME MORNING LINGERING OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES EARLY WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
MOST IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT
ALSO LIKELY FROM THE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
30S TO NEAR 40.

NORTHWEST FLOW RE-STRENGTHENS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL BE DRIER...SO ONLY SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING IF THE WINDS AND
ANY CLOUDS ALLOW FOR LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE OR NOT. RIGHT NOW
RUNNING WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FOR MOST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS
IN THE FAR NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES STILL ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AREA-
WIDE. OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NIGHT WILL START CALM AND CLEAR...BUT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONTAL FEATURE. LOWS OCCUR EARLY...IN THE TEENS/20S BEFORE
RISING TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING A RATHER
ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
DURING THE THURSDAY TO SUNDAY TIME FRAME. THUS PRIOR FORECAST IDEA
OF THE TYPICAL EARLY SPRING UPS AND DOWNS IN TEMPERATURE AND
FREQUENT BOUTS OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH THIS PACKAGE. MOST ACTIVE STRETCH IN THE
PERIOD WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY
WHEN THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A POTENTIAL
FRONTAL WAVE WILL BRING SCT/NUMEROUS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND A
POSSIBLE PERIOD OF STEADIER WET SNOW. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
MILD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
BEST SHOT AT A STEADIER ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS TO OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT WHEN AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS TO OUR IMMEDIATE
SOUTH. GFS HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH FROM ITS PRIOR RUNS, IN
CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH LAST NIGHTS (AND CURRENT) EURO OUTPUT,
THOUGH ADMITTEDLY THE EURO IS CONSIDERABLY MILDER WITH ITS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES. TIME WILL TELL IN REGARD TO PTYPE. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER, TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO EXHIBIT A TYPICAL UP
AND DOWN PATTERN OF EARLY SPRINGTIME WITH MILDEST VALUES (40S TO
LOWER 50S) OCCURRING THU/FRI FOLLOWED BY A STEADY COOLDOWN BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHEN HIGHS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS/20S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT. LIFR AT MPV AND MVFR AT RUT AS THESE
SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS. MVFR CONDITIONS ALSO LINGER AT SLK WITH
CEILINGS. OTHER SITES ARE ALL VFR NOW. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. BKN/OVC CEILINGS WILL
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BECOME SCATTERED.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR/SCT IFR POSSIBLE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. INDICATIONS OF SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WITH LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD WITH MVFR/IFR IMPLICATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES




000
FXUS61 KBTV 310237
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1037 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS END FOR MOST THIS EVENING WITH SOME MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. COOL AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING
TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL
ALSO PROVIDE THE AREA WITH ITS NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT MONDAY...COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AT THIS TIME WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS REST OF
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS FORECAST AREA. COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT
AND BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AS WINDS SHIFT
INTO THE NORTHWEST AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS. GOING
FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. WITH LATEST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/POPS FOR NEXT
FEW HOURS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 336 PM...
INITIAL FRONTAL FEATURE AND WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS
CROSSED THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR LIES BACK NEAR OTTAWA
AND WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THERE ARE SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY FRONT. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS
ALSO INDICATING A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP DIRECTLY WITH THE FRONT AND CROSS THE AREA FROM
21-03Z. BEHIND FRONT AS WINDS TURN NORTHWEST...A PERIOD OF
UNBLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENSUE WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING IN
THE GREEN MOUNTAINS/ADIRONDACKS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE LARGER CHAMPLAIN...SAINT
LAWRENCE...AND CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEYS...AND ONLY A T-1" AT MOST
IN THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWER TERRAIN. HOWEVER SOME OF THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAINS MAY FIND SEVERAL INCHES BY MORNING. LOWS WILL OCCUR
LATE...GENERALLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM EDT MONDAY...DEFAULT RIDGING DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY
BETWEEN THE EXITING SYSTEM AND ANOTHER LOW DIVING SOUTH OF THE
REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE BRIEFLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE
DAY...SO SOME MORNING LINGERING OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES EARLY WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
MOST IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT
ALSO LIKELY FROM THE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
30S TO NEAR 40.

NORTHWEST FLOW RE-STRENGTHENS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL BE DRIER...SO ONLY SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING IF THE WINDS AND ANY
CLOUDS ALLOW FOR LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE OR NOT. RIGHT NOW RUNNING
WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FOR MOST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
FAR NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES STILL ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AREA-WIDE.
OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE NIGHT WILL START CALM AND CLEAR...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE.
LOWS OCCUR EARLY...IN THE TEENS/20S BEFORE RISING TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING A RATHER
ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
DURING THE THURSDAY TO SUNDAY TIME FRAME. THUS PRIOR FORECAST IDEA
OF THE TYPICAL EARLY SPRING UPS AND DOWNS IN TEMPERATURE AND
FREQUENT BOUTS OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH THIS PACKAGE. MOST ACTIVE STRETCH IN THE
PERIOD WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY
WHEN THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A POTENTIAL
FRONTAL WAVE WILL BRING SCT/NUMEROUS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND A
POSSIBLE PERIOD OF STEADIER WET SNOW. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
MILD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
BEST SHOT AT A STEADIER ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS TO OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT WHEN AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS TO OUR IMMEDIATE
SOUTH. GFS HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH FROM ITS PRIOR RUNS, IN
CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH LAST NIGHTS (AND CURRENT) EURO OUTPUT,
THOUGH ADMITTEDLY THE EURO IS CONSIDERABLY MILDER WITH ITS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES. TIME WILL TELL IN REGARD TO PTYPE. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER, TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO EXHIBIT A TYPICAL UP
AND DOWN PATTERN OF EARLY SPRINGTIME WITH MILDEST VALUES (40S TO
LOWER 50S) OCCURRING THU/FRI FOLLOWED BY A STEADY COOLDOWN BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHEN HIGHS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS/20S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MIX OF BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z WITH COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE. SOME IFR LIKELY AT KSLK TERMINAL DURING THIS PERIOD. PCPN
ENDS AFTER 06Z BUT WITH LINGERING BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR CIGS. WINDS
TRENDING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY THEREAFTER AND SLOWLY ABATING
BEHIND FRONT/TROUGH PASSAGE. SKIES WILL BECOME SCT-BKN ON
TUES...PERHAPS MORE SCT DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF INVERSION.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR/SCT IFR POSSIBLE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. INDICATIONS OF SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WITH LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD WITH MVFR/IFR IMPLICATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/SLW




000
FXUS61 KBTV 310237
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1037 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS END FOR MOST THIS EVENING WITH SOME MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. COOL AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING
TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL
ALSO PROVIDE THE AREA WITH ITS NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT MONDAY...COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AT THIS TIME WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS REST OF
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS FORECAST AREA. COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT
AND BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AS WINDS SHIFT
INTO THE NORTHWEST AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS. GOING
FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. WITH LATEST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/POPS FOR NEXT
FEW HOURS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 336 PM...
INITIAL FRONTAL FEATURE AND WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS
CROSSED THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR LIES BACK NEAR OTTAWA
AND WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THERE ARE SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY FRONT. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS
ALSO INDICATING A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP DIRECTLY WITH THE FRONT AND CROSS THE AREA FROM
21-03Z. BEHIND FRONT AS WINDS TURN NORTHWEST...A PERIOD OF
UNBLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENSUE WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING IN
THE GREEN MOUNTAINS/ADIRONDACKS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE LARGER CHAMPLAIN...SAINT
LAWRENCE...AND CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEYS...AND ONLY A T-1" AT MOST
IN THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWER TERRAIN. HOWEVER SOME OF THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAINS MAY FIND SEVERAL INCHES BY MORNING. LOWS WILL OCCUR
LATE...GENERALLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM EDT MONDAY...DEFAULT RIDGING DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY
BETWEEN THE EXITING SYSTEM AND ANOTHER LOW DIVING SOUTH OF THE
REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE BRIEFLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE
DAY...SO SOME MORNING LINGERING OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES EARLY WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
MOST IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT
ALSO LIKELY FROM THE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
30S TO NEAR 40.

NORTHWEST FLOW RE-STRENGTHENS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL BE DRIER...SO ONLY SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING IF THE WINDS AND ANY
CLOUDS ALLOW FOR LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE OR NOT. RIGHT NOW RUNNING
WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FOR MOST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
FAR NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES STILL ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AREA-WIDE.
OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE NIGHT WILL START CALM AND CLEAR...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE.
LOWS OCCUR EARLY...IN THE TEENS/20S BEFORE RISING TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING A RATHER
ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
DURING THE THURSDAY TO SUNDAY TIME FRAME. THUS PRIOR FORECAST IDEA
OF THE TYPICAL EARLY SPRING UPS AND DOWNS IN TEMPERATURE AND
FREQUENT BOUTS OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH THIS PACKAGE. MOST ACTIVE STRETCH IN THE
PERIOD WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY
WHEN THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A POTENTIAL
FRONTAL WAVE WILL BRING SCT/NUMEROUS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND A
POSSIBLE PERIOD OF STEADIER WET SNOW. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
MILD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
BEST SHOT AT A STEADIER ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS TO OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT WHEN AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS TO OUR IMMEDIATE
SOUTH. GFS HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH FROM ITS PRIOR RUNS, IN
CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH LAST NIGHTS (AND CURRENT) EURO OUTPUT,
THOUGH ADMITTEDLY THE EURO IS CONSIDERABLY MILDER WITH ITS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES. TIME WILL TELL IN REGARD TO PTYPE. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER, TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO EXHIBIT A TYPICAL UP
AND DOWN PATTERN OF EARLY SPRINGTIME WITH MILDEST VALUES (40S TO
LOWER 50S) OCCURRING THU/FRI FOLLOWED BY A STEADY COOLDOWN BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHEN HIGHS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS/20S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MIX OF BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z WITH COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE. SOME IFR LIKELY AT KSLK TERMINAL DURING THIS PERIOD. PCPN
ENDS AFTER 06Z BUT WITH LINGERING BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR CIGS. WINDS
TRENDING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY THEREAFTER AND SLOWLY ABATING
BEHIND FRONT/TROUGH PASSAGE. SKIES WILL BECOME SCT-BKN ON
TUES...PERHAPS MORE SCT DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF INVERSION.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR/SCT IFR POSSIBLE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. INDICATIONS OF SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WITH LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD WITH MVFR/IFR IMPLICATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/SLW



000
FXUS61 KALY 310125
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
925 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 925 PM EDT...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUED ACROSS THE FA. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE SPREADING
ACROSS THE REGION AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST. LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION...AND WILL TEND TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD NOT GO CALM. THE COMBINATION
OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
CONTINUE... WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR
STRONG AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN
SHOWERY...AND WITH FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT
UPON TIME OF DAY... TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN
PLAY. THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE
SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING
SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AT 7-14 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 22 KTS AT KALB. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 310125
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
925 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 925 PM EDT...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUED ACROSS THE FA. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE SPREADING
ACROSS THE REGION AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST. LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION...AND WILL TEND TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD NOT GO CALM. THE COMBINATION
OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
CONTINUE... WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR
STRONG AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN
SHOWERY...AND WITH FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT
UPON TIME OF DAY... TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN
PLAY. THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE
SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING
SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AT 7-14 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 22 KTS AT KALB. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 310125
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
925 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 925 PM EDT...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUED ACROSS THE FA. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE SPREADING
ACROSS THE REGION AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST. LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION...AND WILL TEND TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD NOT GO CALM. THE COMBINATION
OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
CONTINUE... WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR
STRONG AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN
SHOWERY...AND WITH FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT
UPON TIME OF DAY... TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN
PLAY. THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE
SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING
SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AT 7-14 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 22 KTS AT KALB. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS




000
FXUS61 KALY 310125
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
925 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 925 PM EDT...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUED ACROSS THE FA. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE SPREADING
ACROSS THE REGION AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST. LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION...AND WILL TEND TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD NOT GO CALM. THE COMBINATION
OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
CONTINUE... WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR
STRONG AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN
SHOWERY...AND WITH FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT
UPON TIME OF DAY... TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN
PLAY. THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE
SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING
SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AT 7-14 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 22 KTS AT KALB. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS



000
FXUS61 KBTV 310005
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
805 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS END FOR MOST THIS EVENING WITH SOME MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. COOL AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING
TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL
ALSO PROVIDE THE AREA WITH ITS NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 644 PM EDT MONDAY...OCCLUDED FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF
FORECAST AREA...WHILE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE OTTAWA
VALLEY WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. RADAR
SHOWING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FORECAST AREA AT
THIS TIME...VERY CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. ACTIVITY MAY BECOME A BIT
BETTER ORGANIZED AS FRONT MOVES INTO REGION THIS EVENING...BUT
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...COVERAGE WILL THEN DECREASE LATER
ON THIS EVENING AND BE MORE CONCENTRATED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WIND SHIFT INTO NORTHWEST. GOING FORECAST
HAS IT ALL WELL COVERED. WITH LATEST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES
TO HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS TEMPS/DEWPOINTS FOR THIS EVENING TO
REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND NEAR TERM GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
INITIAL FRONTAL FEATURE AND WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS
CROSSED THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR LIES BACK NEAR OTTAWA
AND WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THERE ARE SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY FRONT. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS
ALSO INDICATING A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP DIRECTLY WITH THE FRONT AND CROSS THE AREA FROM
21-03Z. BEHIND FRONT AS WINDS TURN NORTHWEST...A PERIOD OF
UNBLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENSUE WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING IN
THE GREEN MOUNTAINS/ADIRONDACKS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE LARGER CHAMPLAIN...SAINT
LAWRENCE...AND CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEYS...AND ONLY A T-1" AT MOST
IN THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWER TERRAIN. HOWEVER SOME OF THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAINS MAY FIND SEVERAL INCHES BY MORNING. LOWS WILL OCCUR
LATE...GENERALLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM EDT MONDAY...DEFAULT RIDGING DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY
BETWEEN THE EXITING SYSTEM AND ANOTHER LOW DIVING SOUTH OF THE
REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE BRIEFLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE
DAY...SO SOME MORNING LINGERING OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES EARLY WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
MOST IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT
ALSO LIKELY FROM THE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
30S TO NEAR 40.

NORTHWEST FLOW RE-STRENGTHENS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL BE DRIER...SO ONLY SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING IF THE WINDS AND ANY
CLOUDS ALLOW FOR LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE OR NOT. RIGHT NOW RUNNING
WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FOR MOST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
FAR NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES STILL ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AREA-WIDE.
OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE NIGHT WILL START CALM AND CLEAR...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE.
LOWS OCCUR EARLY...IN THE TEENS/20S BEFORE RISING TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING A RATHER
ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
DURING THE THURSDAY TO SUNDAY TIME FRAME. THUS PRIOR FORECAST IDEA
OF THE TYPICAL EARLY SPRING UPS AND DOWNS IN TEMPERATURE AND
FREQUENT BOUTS OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH THIS PACKAGE. MOST ACTIVE STRETCH IN THE
PERIOD WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY
WHEN THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A POTENTIAL
FRONTAL WAVE WILL BRING SCT/NUMEROUS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND A
POSSIBLE PERIOD OF STEADIER WET SNOW. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
MILD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
BEST SHOT AT A STEADIER ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS TO OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT WHEN AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS TO OUR IMMEDIATE
SOUTH. GFS HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH FROM ITS PRIOR RUNS, IN
CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH LAST NIGHTS (AND CURRENT) EURO OUTPUT,
THOUGH ADMITTEDLY THE EURO IS CONSIDERABLY MILDER WITH ITS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES. TIME WILL TELL IN REGARD TO PTYPE. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER, TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO EXHIBIT A TYPICAL UP
AND DOWN PATTERN OF EARLY SPRINGTIME WITH MILDEST VALUES (40S TO
LOWER 50S) OCCURRING THU/FRI FOLLOWED BY A STEADY COOLDOWN BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHEN HIGHS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS/20S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MIX OF BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z WITH COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE. SOME IFR LIKELY AT KSLK TERMINAL DURING THIS PERIOD. PCPN
ENDS AFTER 06Z BUT WITH LINGERING BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR CIGS. WINDS
TRENDING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY THEREAFTER AND SLOWLY ABATING
BEHIND FRONT/TROUGH PASSAGE. SKIES WILL BECOME SCT-BKN ON
TUES...PERHAPS MORE SCT DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF INVERSION.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR/SCT IFR POSSIBLE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. INDICATIONS OF SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WITH LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD WITH MVFR/IFR IMPLICATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/SLW



000
FXUS61 KBTV 310005
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
805 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS END FOR MOST THIS EVENING WITH SOME MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. COOL AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING
TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL
ALSO PROVIDE THE AREA WITH ITS NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 644 PM EDT MONDAY...OCCLUDED FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF
FORECAST AREA...WHILE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE OTTAWA
VALLEY WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. RADAR
SHOWING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FORECAST AREA AT
THIS TIME...VERY CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. ACTIVITY MAY BECOME A BIT
BETTER ORGANIZED AS FRONT MOVES INTO REGION THIS EVENING...BUT
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...COVERAGE WILL THEN DECREASE LATER
ON THIS EVENING AND BE MORE CONCENTRATED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WIND SHIFT INTO NORTHWEST. GOING FORECAST
HAS IT ALL WELL COVERED. WITH LATEST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES
TO HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS TEMPS/DEWPOINTS FOR THIS EVENING TO
REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND NEAR TERM GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
INITIAL FRONTAL FEATURE AND WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS
CROSSED THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR LIES BACK NEAR OTTAWA
AND WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THERE ARE SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY FRONT. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS
ALSO INDICATING A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP DIRECTLY WITH THE FRONT AND CROSS THE AREA FROM
21-03Z. BEHIND FRONT AS WINDS TURN NORTHWEST...A PERIOD OF
UNBLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENSUE WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING IN
THE GREEN MOUNTAINS/ADIRONDACKS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE LARGER CHAMPLAIN...SAINT
LAWRENCE...AND CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEYS...AND ONLY A T-1" AT MOST
IN THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWER TERRAIN. HOWEVER SOME OF THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAINS MAY FIND SEVERAL INCHES BY MORNING. LOWS WILL OCCUR
LATE...GENERALLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM EDT MONDAY...DEFAULT RIDGING DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY
BETWEEN THE EXITING SYSTEM AND ANOTHER LOW DIVING SOUTH OF THE
REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE BRIEFLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE
DAY...SO SOME MORNING LINGERING OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES EARLY WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
MOST IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT
ALSO LIKELY FROM THE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
30S TO NEAR 40.

NORTHWEST FLOW RE-STRENGTHENS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL BE DRIER...SO ONLY SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING IF THE WINDS AND ANY
CLOUDS ALLOW FOR LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE OR NOT. RIGHT NOW RUNNING
WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FOR MOST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
FAR NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES STILL ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AREA-WIDE.
OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE NIGHT WILL START CALM AND CLEAR...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE.
LOWS OCCUR EARLY...IN THE TEENS/20S BEFORE RISING TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING A RATHER
ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
DURING THE THURSDAY TO SUNDAY TIME FRAME. THUS PRIOR FORECAST IDEA
OF THE TYPICAL EARLY SPRING UPS AND DOWNS IN TEMPERATURE AND
FREQUENT BOUTS OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH THIS PACKAGE. MOST ACTIVE STRETCH IN THE
PERIOD WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY
WHEN THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A POTENTIAL
FRONTAL WAVE WILL BRING SCT/NUMEROUS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND A
POSSIBLE PERIOD OF STEADIER WET SNOW. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
MILD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
BEST SHOT AT A STEADIER ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS TO OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT WHEN AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS TO OUR IMMEDIATE
SOUTH. GFS HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH FROM ITS PRIOR RUNS, IN
CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH LAST NIGHTS (AND CURRENT) EURO OUTPUT,
THOUGH ADMITTEDLY THE EURO IS CONSIDERABLY MILDER WITH ITS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES. TIME WILL TELL IN REGARD TO PTYPE. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER, TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO EXHIBIT A TYPICAL UP
AND DOWN PATTERN OF EARLY SPRINGTIME WITH MILDEST VALUES (40S TO
LOWER 50S) OCCURRING THU/FRI FOLLOWED BY A STEADY COOLDOWN BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHEN HIGHS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS/20S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MIX OF BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z WITH COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE. SOME IFR LIKELY AT KSLK TERMINAL DURING THIS PERIOD. PCPN
ENDS AFTER 06Z BUT WITH LINGERING BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR CIGS. WINDS
TRENDING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY THEREAFTER AND SLOWLY ABATING
BEHIND FRONT/TROUGH PASSAGE. SKIES WILL BECOME SCT-BKN ON
TUES...PERHAPS MORE SCT DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF INVERSION.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR/SCT IFR POSSIBLE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. INDICATIONS OF SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WITH LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD WITH MVFR/IFR IMPLICATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/SLW



000
FXUS61 KBTV 310005
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
805 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS END FOR MOST THIS EVENING WITH SOME MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. COOL AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING
TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL
ALSO PROVIDE THE AREA WITH ITS NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 644 PM EDT MONDAY...OCCLUDED FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF
FORECAST AREA...WHILE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE OTTAWA
VALLEY WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. RADAR
SHOWING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FORECAST AREA AT
THIS TIME...VERY CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. ACTIVITY MAY BECOME A BIT
BETTER ORGANIZED AS FRONT MOVES INTO REGION THIS EVENING...BUT
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...COVERAGE WILL THEN DECREASE LATER
ON THIS EVENING AND BE MORE CONCENTRATED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WIND SHIFT INTO NORTHWEST. GOING FORECAST
HAS IT ALL WELL COVERED. WITH LATEST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES
TO HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS TEMPS/DEWPOINTS FOR THIS EVENING TO
REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND NEAR TERM GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
INITIAL FRONTAL FEATURE AND WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS
CROSSED THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR LIES BACK NEAR OTTAWA
AND WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THERE ARE SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY FRONT. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS
ALSO INDICATING A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP DIRECTLY WITH THE FRONT AND CROSS THE AREA FROM
21-03Z. BEHIND FRONT AS WINDS TURN NORTHWEST...A PERIOD OF
UNBLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENSUE WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING IN
THE GREEN MOUNTAINS/ADIRONDACKS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE LARGER CHAMPLAIN...SAINT
LAWRENCE...AND CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEYS...AND ONLY A T-1" AT MOST
IN THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWER TERRAIN. HOWEVER SOME OF THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAINS MAY FIND SEVERAL INCHES BY MORNING. LOWS WILL OCCUR
LATE...GENERALLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM EDT MONDAY...DEFAULT RIDGING DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY
BETWEEN THE EXITING SYSTEM AND ANOTHER LOW DIVING SOUTH OF THE
REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE BRIEFLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE
DAY...SO SOME MORNING LINGERING OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES EARLY WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
MOST IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT
ALSO LIKELY FROM THE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
30S TO NEAR 40.

NORTHWEST FLOW RE-STRENGTHENS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL BE DRIER...SO ONLY SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING IF THE WINDS AND ANY
CLOUDS ALLOW FOR LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE OR NOT. RIGHT NOW RUNNING
WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FOR MOST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
FAR NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES STILL ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AREA-WIDE.
OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE NIGHT WILL START CALM AND CLEAR...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE.
LOWS OCCUR EARLY...IN THE TEENS/20S BEFORE RISING TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING A RATHER
ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
DURING THE THURSDAY TO SUNDAY TIME FRAME. THUS PRIOR FORECAST IDEA
OF THE TYPICAL EARLY SPRING UPS AND DOWNS IN TEMPERATURE AND
FREQUENT BOUTS OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH THIS PACKAGE. MOST ACTIVE STRETCH IN THE
PERIOD WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY
WHEN THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A POTENTIAL
FRONTAL WAVE WILL BRING SCT/NUMEROUS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND A
POSSIBLE PERIOD OF STEADIER WET SNOW. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
MILD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
BEST SHOT AT A STEADIER ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS TO OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT WHEN AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS TO OUR IMMEDIATE
SOUTH. GFS HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH FROM ITS PRIOR RUNS, IN
CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH LAST NIGHTS (AND CURRENT) EURO OUTPUT,
THOUGH ADMITTEDLY THE EURO IS CONSIDERABLY MILDER WITH ITS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES. TIME WILL TELL IN REGARD TO PTYPE. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER, TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO EXHIBIT A TYPICAL UP
AND DOWN PATTERN OF EARLY SPRINGTIME WITH MILDEST VALUES (40S TO
LOWER 50S) OCCURRING THU/FRI FOLLOWED BY A STEADY COOLDOWN BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHEN HIGHS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS/20S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MIX OF BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z WITH COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE. SOME IFR LIKELY AT KSLK TERMINAL DURING THIS PERIOD. PCPN
ENDS AFTER 06Z BUT WITH LINGERING BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR CIGS. WINDS
TRENDING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY THEREAFTER AND SLOWLY ABATING
BEHIND FRONT/TROUGH PASSAGE. SKIES WILL BECOME SCT-BKN ON
TUES...PERHAPS MORE SCT DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF INVERSION.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR/SCT IFR POSSIBLE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. INDICATIONS OF SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WITH LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD WITH MVFR/IFR IMPLICATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/SLW



000
FXUS61 KBTV 310005
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
805 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS END FOR MOST THIS EVENING WITH SOME MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. COOL AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING
TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL
ALSO PROVIDE THE AREA WITH ITS NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 644 PM EDT MONDAY...OCCLUDED FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF
FORECAST AREA...WHILE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE OTTAWA
VALLEY WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. RADAR
SHOWING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FORECAST AREA AT
THIS TIME...VERY CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. ACTIVITY MAY BECOME A BIT
BETTER ORGANIZED AS FRONT MOVES INTO REGION THIS EVENING...BUT
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...COVERAGE WILL THEN DECREASE LATER
ON THIS EVENING AND BE MORE CONCENTRATED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WIND SHIFT INTO NORTHWEST. GOING FORECAST
HAS IT ALL WELL COVERED. WITH LATEST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES
TO HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS TEMPS/DEWPOINTS FOR THIS EVENING TO
REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND NEAR TERM GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
INITIAL FRONTAL FEATURE AND WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS
CROSSED THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR LIES BACK NEAR OTTAWA
AND WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THERE ARE SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY FRONT. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS
ALSO INDICATING A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP DIRECTLY WITH THE FRONT AND CROSS THE AREA FROM
21-03Z. BEHIND FRONT AS WINDS TURN NORTHWEST...A PERIOD OF
UNBLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENSUE WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING IN
THE GREEN MOUNTAINS/ADIRONDACKS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE LARGER CHAMPLAIN...SAINT
LAWRENCE...AND CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEYS...AND ONLY A T-1" AT MOST
IN THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWER TERRAIN. HOWEVER SOME OF THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAINS MAY FIND SEVERAL INCHES BY MORNING. LOWS WILL OCCUR
LATE...GENERALLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM EDT MONDAY...DEFAULT RIDGING DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY
BETWEEN THE EXITING SYSTEM AND ANOTHER LOW DIVING SOUTH OF THE
REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE BRIEFLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE
DAY...SO SOME MORNING LINGERING OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES EARLY WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
MOST IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT
ALSO LIKELY FROM THE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
30S TO NEAR 40.

NORTHWEST FLOW RE-STRENGTHENS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL BE DRIER...SO ONLY SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING IF THE WINDS AND ANY
CLOUDS ALLOW FOR LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE OR NOT. RIGHT NOW RUNNING
WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FOR MOST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
FAR NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES STILL ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AREA-WIDE.
OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE NIGHT WILL START CALM AND CLEAR...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE.
LOWS OCCUR EARLY...IN THE TEENS/20S BEFORE RISING TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING A RATHER
ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
DURING THE THURSDAY TO SUNDAY TIME FRAME. THUS PRIOR FORECAST IDEA
OF THE TYPICAL EARLY SPRING UPS AND DOWNS IN TEMPERATURE AND
FREQUENT BOUTS OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH THIS PACKAGE. MOST ACTIVE STRETCH IN THE
PERIOD WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY
WHEN THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A POTENTIAL
FRONTAL WAVE WILL BRING SCT/NUMEROUS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND A
POSSIBLE PERIOD OF STEADIER WET SNOW. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
MILD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
BEST SHOT AT A STEADIER ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS TO OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT WHEN AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS TO OUR IMMEDIATE
SOUTH. GFS HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH FROM ITS PRIOR RUNS, IN
CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH LAST NIGHTS (AND CURRENT) EURO OUTPUT,
THOUGH ADMITTEDLY THE EURO IS CONSIDERABLY MILDER WITH ITS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES. TIME WILL TELL IN REGARD TO PTYPE. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER, TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO EXHIBIT A TYPICAL UP
AND DOWN PATTERN OF EARLY SPRINGTIME WITH MILDEST VALUES (40S TO
LOWER 50S) OCCURRING THU/FRI FOLLOWED BY A STEADY COOLDOWN BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHEN HIGHS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS/20S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MIX OF BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z WITH COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE. SOME IFR LIKELY AT KSLK TERMINAL DURING THIS PERIOD. PCPN
ENDS AFTER 06Z BUT WITH LINGERING BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR CIGS. WINDS
TRENDING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY THEREAFTER AND SLOWLY ABATING
BEHIND FRONT/TROUGH PASSAGE. SKIES WILL BECOME SCT-BKN ON
TUES...PERHAPS MORE SCT DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF INVERSION.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR/SCT IFR POSSIBLE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. INDICATIONS OF SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WITH LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD WITH MVFR/IFR IMPLICATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/SLW



000
FXUS61 KBTV 310005
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
805 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS END FOR MOST THIS EVENING WITH SOME MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. COOL AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING
TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL
ALSO PROVIDE THE AREA WITH ITS NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 644 PM EDT MONDAY...OCCLUDED FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF
FORECAST AREA...WHILE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE OTTAWA
VALLEY WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. RADAR
SHOWING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FORECAST AREA AT
THIS TIME...VERY CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. ACTIVITY MAY BECOME A BIT
BETTER ORGANIZED AS FRONT MOVES INTO REGION THIS EVENING...BUT
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...COVERAGE WILL THEN DECREASE LATER
ON THIS EVENING AND BE MORE CONCENTRATED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WIND SHIFT INTO NORTHWEST. GOING FORECAST
HAS IT ALL WELL COVERED. WITH LATEST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES
TO HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS TEMPS/DEWPOINTS FOR THIS EVENING TO
REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND NEAR TERM GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
INITIAL FRONTAL FEATURE AND WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS
CROSSED THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR LIES BACK NEAR OTTAWA
AND WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THERE ARE SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY FRONT. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS
ALSO INDICATING A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP DIRECTLY WITH THE FRONT AND CROSS THE AREA FROM
21-03Z. BEHIND FRONT AS WINDS TURN NORTHWEST...A PERIOD OF
UNBLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENSUE WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING IN
THE GREEN MOUNTAINS/ADIRONDACKS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE LARGER CHAMPLAIN...SAINT
LAWRENCE...AND CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEYS...AND ONLY A T-1" AT MOST
IN THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWER TERRAIN. HOWEVER SOME OF THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAINS MAY FIND SEVERAL INCHES BY MORNING. LOWS WILL OCCUR
LATE...GENERALLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM EDT MONDAY...DEFAULT RIDGING DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY
BETWEEN THE EXITING SYSTEM AND ANOTHER LOW DIVING SOUTH OF THE
REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE BRIEFLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE
DAY...SO SOME MORNING LINGERING OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES EARLY WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
MOST IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT
ALSO LIKELY FROM THE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
30S TO NEAR 40.

NORTHWEST FLOW RE-STRENGTHENS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL BE DRIER...SO ONLY SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING IF THE WINDS AND ANY
CLOUDS ALLOW FOR LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE OR NOT. RIGHT NOW RUNNING
WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FOR MOST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
FAR NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES STILL ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AREA-WIDE.
OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE NIGHT WILL START CALM AND CLEAR...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE.
LOWS OCCUR EARLY...IN THE TEENS/20S BEFORE RISING TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING A RATHER
ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
DURING THE THURSDAY TO SUNDAY TIME FRAME. THUS PRIOR FORECAST IDEA
OF THE TYPICAL EARLY SPRING UPS AND DOWNS IN TEMPERATURE AND
FREQUENT BOUTS OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH THIS PACKAGE. MOST ACTIVE STRETCH IN THE
PERIOD WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY
WHEN THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A POTENTIAL
FRONTAL WAVE WILL BRING SCT/NUMEROUS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND A
POSSIBLE PERIOD OF STEADIER WET SNOW. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
MILD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
BEST SHOT AT A STEADIER ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS TO OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT WHEN AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS TO OUR IMMEDIATE
SOUTH. GFS HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH FROM ITS PRIOR RUNS, IN
CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH LAST NIGHTS (AND CURRENT) EURO OUTPUT,
THOUGH ADMITTEDLY THE EURO IS CONSIDERABLY MILDER WITH ITS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES. TIME WILL TELL IN REGARD TO PTYPE. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER, TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO EXHIBIT A TYPICAL UP
AND DOWN PATTERN OF EARLY SPRINGTIME WITH MILDEST VALUES (40S TO
LOWER 50S) OCCURRING THU/FRI FOLLOWED BY A STEADY COOLDOWN BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHEN HIGHS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS/20S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MIX OF BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z WITH COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE. SOME IFR LIKELY AT KSLK TERMINAL DURING THIS PERIOD. PCPN
ENDS AFTER 06Z BUT WITH LINGERING BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR CIGS. WINDS
TRENDING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY THEREAFTER AND SLOWLY ABATING
BEHIND FRONT/TROUGH PASSAGE. SKIES WILL BECOME SCT-BKN ON
TUES...PERHAPS MORE SCT DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF INVERSION.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR/SCT IFR POSSIBLE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. INDICATIONS OF SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WITH LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD WITH MVFR/IFR IMPLICATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/SLW



000
FXUS61 KALY 302305
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
705 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 625 PM EDT...GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION AS COLD ADVECTION BUILDS EAST. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION...AND WILL TEND
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT
SHOULD NOT GO CALM. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
CONTINUE... WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR
STRONG AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN
SHOWERY...AND WITH FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT
UPON TIME OF DAY... TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN
PLAY. THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE
SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING
SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AT 7-14 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 22 KTS AT KALB. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 302305
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
705 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 625 PM EDT...GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION AS COLD ADVECTION BUILDS EAST. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION...AND WILL TEND
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT
SHOULD NOT GO CALM. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
CONTINUE... WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR
STRONG AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN
SHOWERY...AND WITH FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT
UPON TIME OF DAY... TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN
PLAY. THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE
SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING
SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AT 7-14 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 22 KTS AT KALB. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 302305
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
705 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 625 PM EDT...GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION AS COLD ADVECTION BUILDS EAST. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION...AND WILL TEND
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT
SHOULD NOT GO CALM. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
CONTINUE... WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR
STRONG AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN
SHOWERY...AND WITH FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT
UPON TIME OF DAY... TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN
PLAY. THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE
SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING
SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AT 7-14 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 22 KTS AT KALB. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 302305
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
705 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 625 PM EDT...GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION AS COLD ADVECTION BUILDS EAST. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION...AND WILL TEND
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT
SHOULD NOT GO CALM. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
CONTINUE... WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR
STRONG AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN
SHOWERY...AND WITH FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT
UPON TIME OF DAY... TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN
PLAY. THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE
SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING
SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AT 7-14 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 22 KTS AT KALB. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 302305
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
705 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 625 PM EDT...GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION AS COLD ADVECTION BUILDS EAST. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION...AND WILL TEND
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT
SHOULD NOT GO CALM. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
CONTINUE... WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR
STRONG AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN
SHOWERY...AND WITH FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT
UPON TIME OF DAY... TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN
PLAY. THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE
SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING
SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AT 7-14 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 22 KTS AT KALB. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS



000
FXUS61 KALY 302305
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
705 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 625 PM EDT...GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION AS COLD ADVECTION BUILDS EAST. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION...AND WILL TEND
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT
SHOULD NOT GO CALM. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY...AND JUST BARELY SCRAPES
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS COULD
EXTEND NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN VT. WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SO...HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN CAN OCCUR.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...SOME SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW ENDS DURING THE EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...
WITH MAYBE A DUSTING IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY EXIT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND COLD ADVECTION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...TEENS IN NORTHERN
AREAS...WHERE MOST CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...EVEN WITH STRONG EARLY APRIL SUN...HIGHS
IN THE 40S...SOME 30S NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE 20S DURING THE EVENING...SOME
TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO
LIGHT SOUTH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INTERVALS OF CLOUDS THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE RAPIDLY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THE TIGHTENING
THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE ARE HINTS
THAT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER COULD BREAK FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT TIMING AND DURATION COULD BE TOO LATE AND TOO
SHORT TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 50S...40S IN NORTHERN
AREAS. IF DOWNSLOPING AND LONGER PERIOD OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THURSDAY...OPTIMUM MIXING COULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS...BUT NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR THAT KIND OF WARMTH. SO...
AGAIN...HIGHS THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS
CONTINUE... WITH MODELS FORECASTING NEITHER STRONG SYSTEMS NOR
STRONG AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN
SHOWERY...AND WITH FREQUENTLY MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES DEPENDENT
UPON TIME OF DAY... TERRAIN...CLOUDINESS...AND THE COLD AIR IN
PLAY. THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE
SUNDAY ON LOOKS TO BE DRY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSING
SOUTHWARD WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS IN THE ZONES...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL PERIODS OF SUNSHINE.

THE SIGNS OF SPRING WILL BE APPARENT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.  AFTER THIS...
HOWEVER...READINGS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S.  THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL
FREEZE...WITH THIS TO BE REPEATED SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL HAVE LOCATIONS DOWN IN THE TEENS...BUT EVERYONE ELSE
WILL BE ABLE TO STAY UP IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.  NORMAL HIGHS AT
ALBANY FOR THIS PERIOD ARE IN THE MID 50S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MOSTLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
WILL BE AT KPSF WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH CIGS STAYING DOWN OVERNIGHT. THE
OTHER TAF SITES MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT CIG/VSBY SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
THICKENING AND LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK BY NOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AT 7-14 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 22 KTS AT KALB. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH...DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE
OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT...BUT A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS TO OUR AREA...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR
SOUTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BRING FAIR WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 65 AND
95 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...SND/NAS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 302259
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
659 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS END FOR MOST THIS EVENING WITH SOME MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. COOL AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING
TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL
ALSO PROVIDE THE AREA WITH ITS NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 644 PM EDT MONDAY...OCCLUDED FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF
FORECAST AREA...WHILE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE OTTAWA
VALLEY WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. RADAR
SHOWING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FORECAST AREA AT
THIS TIME...VERY CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. ACTIVITY MAY BECOME A BIT
BETTER ORGANIZED AS FRONT MOVES INTO REGION THIS EVENING...BUT
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...COVERAGE WILL THEN DECREASE LATER
ON THIS EVENING AND BE MORE CONCENTRATED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WIND SHIFT INTO NORTHWEST. GOING FORECAST
HAS IT ALL WELL COVERED. WITH LATEST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES
TO HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS TEMPS/DEWPOINTS FOR THIS EVENING TO
REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND NEAR TERM GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
INITIAL FRONTAL FEATURE AND WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS
CROSSED THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR LIES BACK NEAR OTTAWA
AND WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THERE ARE SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY FRONT. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS
ALSO INDICATING A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP DIRECTLY WITH THE FRONT AND CROSS THE AREA FROM
21-03Z. BEHIND FRONT AS WINDS TURN NORTHWEST...A PERIOD OF
UNBLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENSUE WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING IN
THE GREEN MOUNTAINS/ADIRONDACKS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE LARGER CHAMPLAIN...SAINT
LAWRENCE...AND CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEYS...AND ONLY A T-1" AT MOST
IN THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWER TERRAIN. HOWEVER SOME OF THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAINS MAY FIND SEVERAL INCHES BY MORNING. LOWS WILL OCCUR
LATE...GENERALLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM EDT MONDAY...DEFAULT RIDGING DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY
BETWEEN THE EXITING SYSTEM AND ANOTHER LOW DIVING SOUTH OF THE
REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE BRIEFLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE
DAY...SO SOME MORNING LINGERING OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES EARLY WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
MOST IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT
ALSO LIKELY FROM THE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
30S TO NEAR 40.

NORTHWEST FLOW RE-STRENGTHENS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL BE DRIER...SO ONLY SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING IF THE WINDS AND ANY
CLOUDS ALLOW FOR LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE OR NOT. RIGHT NOW RUNNING
WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FOR MOST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
FAR NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES STILL ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AREA-WIDE.
OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE NIGHT WILL START CALM AND CLEAR...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE.
LOWS OCCUR EARLY...IN THE TEENS/20S BEFORE RISING TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING A RATHER
ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
DURING THE THURSDAY TO SUNDAY TIME FRAME. THUS PRIOR FORECAST IDEA
OF THE TYPICAL EARLY SPRING UPS AND DOWNS IN TEMPERATURE AND
FREQUENT BOUTS OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH THIS PACKAGE. MOST ACTIVE STRETCH IN THE
PERIOD WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY
WHEN THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A POTENTIAL
FRONTAL WAVE WILL BRING SCT/NUMEROUS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND A
POSSIBLE PERIOD OF STEADIER WET SNOW. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
MILD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
BEST SHOT AT A STEADIER ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS TO OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT WHEN AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS TO OUR IMMEDIATE
SOUTH. GFS HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH FROM ITS PRIOR RUNS, IN
CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH LAST NIGHTS (AND CURRENT) EURO OUTPUT,
THOUGH ADMITTEDLY THE EURO IS CONSIDERABLY MILDER WITH ITS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES. TIME WILL TELL IN REGARD TO PTYPE. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER, TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO EXHIBIT A TYPICAL UP
AND DOWN PATTERN OF EARLY SPRINGTIME WITH MILDEST VALUES (40S TO
LOWER 50S) OCCURRING THU/FRI FOLLOWED BY A STEADY COOLDOWN BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHEN HIGHS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS/20S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MIX OF BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z WITH COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE. SOME IFR LIKELY AT KSLK TERMINAL DURING THIS PERIOD. PCPN
ENDS AFTER 06Z BUT WITH LINGERING BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR CIGS. WINDS
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY TO 30 KTS THROUGH 00Z, TRENDING WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY THEREAFTER AND SLOWLY ABATING BEHIND FRONT/TROUGH
PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR/SCT IFR POSSIBLE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. INDICATIONS OF SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WITH LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD WITH MVFR/IFR IMPLICATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG



000
FXUS61 KBTV 302259
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
659 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS END FOR MOST THIS EVENING WITH SOME MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. COOL AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING
TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL
ALSO PROVIDE THE AREA WITH ITS NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 644 PM EDT MONDAY...OCCLUDED FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF
FORECAST AREA...WHILE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE OTTAWA
VALLEY WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. RADAR
SHOWING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FORECAST AREA AT
THIS TIME...VERY CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. ACTIVITY MAY BECOME A BIT
BETTER ORGANIZED AS FRONT MOVES INTO REGION THIS EVENING...BUT
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...COVERAGE WILL THEN DECREASE LATER
ON THIS EVENING AND BE MORE CONCENTRATED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WIND SHIFT INTO NORTHWEST. GOING FORECAST
HAS IT ALL WELL COVERED. WITH LATEST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES
TO HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS TEMPS/DEWPOINTS FOR THIS EVENING TO
REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND NEAR TERM GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
INITIAL FRONTAL FEATURE AND WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS
CROSSED THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR LIES BACK NEAR OTTAWA
AND WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THERE ARE SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY FRONT. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS
ALSO INDICATING A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP DIRECTLY WITH THE FRONT AND CROSS THE AREA FROM
21-03Z. BEHIND FRONT AS WINDS TURN NORTHWEST...A PERIOD OF
UNBLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENSUE WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING IN
THE GREEN MOUNTAINS/ADIRONDACKS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE LARGER CHAMPLAIN...SAINT
LAWRENCE...AND CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEYS...AND ONLY A T-1" AT MOST
IN THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWER TERRAIN. HOWEVER SOME OF THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAINS MAY FIND SEVERAL INCHES BY MORNING. LOWS WILL OCCUR
LATE...GENERALLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM EDT MONDAY...DEFAULT RIDGING DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY
BETWEEN THE EXITING SYSTEM AND ANOTHER LOW DIVING SOUTH OF THE
REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE BRIEFLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE
DAY...SO SOME MORNING LINGERING OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES EARLY WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
MOST IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT
ALSO LIKELY FROM THE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
30S TO NEAR 40.

NORTHWEST FLOW RE-STRENGTHENS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL BE DRIER...SO ONLY SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING IF THE WINDS AND ANY
CLOUDS ALLOW FOR LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE OR NOT. RIGHT NOW RUNNING
WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FOR MOST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
FAR NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES STILL ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AREA-WIDE.
OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE NIGHT WILL START CALM AND CLEAR...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE.
LOWS OCCUR EARLY...IN THE TEENS/20S BEFORE RISING TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING A RATHER
ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
DURING THE THURSDAY TO SUNDAY TIME FRAME. THUS PRIOR FORECAST IDEA
OF THE TYPICAL EARLY SPRING UPS AND DOWNS IN TEMPERATURE AND
FREQUENT BOUTS OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH THIS PACKAGE. MOST ACTIVE STRETCH IN THE
PERIOD WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY
WHEN THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A POTENTIAL
FRONTAL WAVE WILL BRING SCT/NUMEROUS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND A
POSSIBLE PERIOD OF STEADIER WET SNOW. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
MILD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
BEST SHOT AT A STEADIER ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS TO OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT WHEN AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS TO OUR IMMEDIATE
SOUTH. GFS HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH FROM ITS PRIOR RUNS, IN
CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH LAST NIGHTS (AND CURRENT) EURO OUTPUT,
THOUGH ADMITTEDLY THE EURO IS CONSIDERABLY MILDER WITH ITS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES. TIME WILL TELL IN REGARD TO PTYPE. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER, TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO EXHIBIT A TYPICAL UP
AND DOWN PATTERN OF EARLY SPRINGTIME WITH MILDEST VALUES (40S TO
LOWER 50S) OCCURRING THU/FRI FOLLOWED BY A STEADY COOLDOWN BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHEN HIGHS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS/20S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MIX OF BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z WITH COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE. SOME IFR LIKELY AT KSLK TERMINAL DURING THIS PERIOD. PCPN
ENDS AFTER 06Z BUT WITH LINGERING BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR CIGS. WINDS
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY TO 30 KTS THROUGH 00Z, TRENDING WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY THEREAFTER AND SLOWLY ABATING BEHIND FRONT/TROUGH
PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR/SCT IFR POSSIBLE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. INDICATIONS OF SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WITH LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD WITH MVFR/IFR IMPLICATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 302259
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
659 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS END FOR MOST THIS EVENING WITH SOME MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. COOL AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING
TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL
ALSO PROVIDE THE AREA WITH ITS NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 644 PM EDT MONDAY...OCCLUDED FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF
FORECAST AREA...WHILE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE OTTAWA
VALLEY WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. RADAR
SHOWING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FORECAST AREA AT
THIS TIME...VERY CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. ACTIVITY MAY BECOME A BIT
BETTER ORGANIZED AS FRONT MOVES INTO REGION THIS EVENING...BUT
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...COVERAGE WILL THEN DECREASE LATER
ON THIS EVENING AND BE MORE CONCENTRATED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WIND SHIFT INTO NORTHWEST. GOING FORECAST
HAS IT ALL WELL COVERED. WITH LATEST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES
TO HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS TEMPS/DEWPOINTS FOR THIS EVENING TO
REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND NEAR TERM GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
INITIAL FRONTAL FEATURE AND WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS
CROSSED THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR LIES BACK NEAR OTTAWA
AND WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THERE ARE SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY FRONT. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS
ALSO INDICATING A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP DIRECTLY WITH THE FRONT AND CROSS THE AREA FROM
21-03Z. BEHIND FRONT AS WINDS TURN NORTHWEST...A PERIOD OF
UNBLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENSUE WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING IN
THE GREEN MOUNTAINS/ADIRONDACKS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE LARGER CHAMPLAIN...SAINT
LAWRENCE...AND CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEYS...AND ONLY A T-1" AT MOST
IN THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWER TERRAIN. HOWEVER SOME OF THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAINS MAY FIND SEVERAL INCHES BY MORNING. LOWS WILL OCCUR
LATE...GENERALLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM EDT MONDAY...DEFAULT RIDGING DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY
BETWEEN THE EXITING SYSTEM AND ANOTHER LOW DIVING SOUTH OF THE
REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE BRIEFLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE
DAY...SO SOME MORNING LINGERING OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES EARLY WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
MOST IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT
ALSO LIKELY FROM THE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
30S TO NEAR 40.

NORTHWEST FLOW RE-STRENGTHENS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL BE DRIER...SO ONLY SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING IF THE WINDS AND ANY
CLOUDS ALLOW FOR LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE OR NOT. RIGHT NOW RUNNING
WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FOR MOST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
FAR NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES STILL ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AREA-WIDE.
OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE NIGHT WILL START CALM AND CLEAR...BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE.
LOWS OCCUR EARLY...IN THE TEENS/20S BEFORE RISING TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT MONDAY...GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING A RATHER
ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
DURING THE THURSDAY TO SUNDAY TIME FRAME. THUS PRIOR FORECAST IDEA
OF THE TYPICAL EARLY SPRING UPS AND DOWNS IN TEMPERATURE AND
FREQUENT BOUTS OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH THIS PACKAGE. MOST ACTIVE STRETCH IN THE
PERIOD WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY
WHEN THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A POTENTIAL
FRONTAL WAVE WILL BRING SCT/NUMEROUS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND A
POSSIBLE PERIOD OF STEADIER WET SNOW. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
MILD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
BEST SHOT AT A STEADIER ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWS TO OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT WHEN AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS TO OUR IMMEDIATE
SOUTH. GFS HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH FROM ITS PRIOR RUNS, IN
CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH LAST NIGHTS (AND CURRENT) EURO OUTPUT,
THOUGH ADMITTEDLY THE EURO IS CONSIDERABLY MILDER WITH ITS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES. TIME WILL TELL IN REGARD TO PTYPE. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER, TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO EXHIBIT A TYPICAL UP
AND DOWN PATTERN OF EARLY SPRINGTIME WITH MILDEST VALUES (40S TO
LOWER 50S) OCCURRING THU/FRI FOLLOWED BY A STEADY COOLDOWN BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHEN HIGHS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS/20S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MIX OF BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z WITH COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE. SOME IFR LIKELY AT KSLK TERMINAL DURING THIS PERIOD. PCPN
ENDS AFTER 06Z BUT WITH LINGERING BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR CIGS. WINDS
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY TO 30 KTS THROUGH 00Z, TRENDING WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY THEREAFTER AND SLOWLY ABATING BEHIND FRONT/TROUGH
PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR/SCT IFR POSSIBLE.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...CONFIDENCE MODERATE. INDICATIONS OF SOME
MOISTURE RETURN WITH LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD WITH MVFR/IFR IMPLICATIONS, ESPECIALLY AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KMPV/KRUT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 302259
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
659 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS END FOR MOST THIS EVENING WITH SOME MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. COOL AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING
TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL
ALSO PROVIDE THE AREA WITH ITS NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 644 PM EDT MONDAY...OCCLUDED FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF
FORECAST AREA...WHILE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE OTTAWA
VALLEY WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. RADAR
SHOWING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FORECAST AREA AT
THIS TIME...VERY CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. ACTIVITY MAY BECOME A BIT
BETTER ORGANIZED AS FRONT MOVES INTO REGION THIS EVENING...BUT
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...COVERAGE WILL THEN DECREASE LATER
ON THIS EVENING AND BE MORE CONCENTRATED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WIND SHIFT INTO NORTHWEST. GOING FORECAST
HAS IT ALL WELL COVERED. WITH LATEST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES
TO HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS TEMPS/DEWPOINTS FOR THIS EVENING TO
REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND NEAR TERM GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
INITIAL FRONTAL FEATURE AND WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS
CROSSED THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR LIES BACK NEAR OTTAWA
AND WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THERE ARE SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY FRONT. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS
ALSO INDICATING A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP DIRECTLY WITH THE FRONT AND CROSS THE AREA FROM
21-03Z. BEHIND FRONT AS WINDS TURN NORTHWEST...A PERIOD OF
UNBLOCKED UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENSUE WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING IN
THE GREEN MOUNTAINS/ADIRONDACKS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE LARGER CHAMPLAIN...SAINT
LAWRENCE...AND CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEYS...AND ONLY A T-1" AT MOST
IN THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWER TERRAIN. HOWEVER SOME OF THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAINS MAY FIND SEVERAL INCHES BY MORNING. LOWS WILL OCCUR
LATE...GENERALLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 336 PM EDT MONDAY...DEFAULT RIDGING DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY
BETWEEN THE EXITING SYSTEM AND ANOTHER LOW DIVING SOUTH OF THE
REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE BRIEFLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE
DAY...SO SOME MORNING LINGERING OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES EARLY WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR
MOST IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT
ALSO LIKELY FROM THE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
30S TO NEAR 40.

NORTHWEST FLOW RE-STRENGTHENS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL BE DRIER...SO ONLY SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING IF THE WINDS AND ANY
CLOUDS ALLOW FOR LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE OR NOT. RIGHT NOW RUNNING
WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FOR MOST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
FAR NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND ADIRONDACKS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES STILL ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AREA-WIDE.
OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE NIGHT WILL START CALM AND CLEAR...BUT S