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000
FXUS61 KBTV 221753
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1253 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRING GUSTY WINDS AND
MORE RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1249 PM EST SATURDAY...SWLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE
BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY. SEEING WINDS OF 15-25
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH IN THE WIDER VALLEYS (CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE). THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO
GETTING SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMEST AT NOON (MALONE 37F AND
ELLENBERG DEPOT 39F).

THE INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL ALSO MARK THE ONSET OF A MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. DESPITE
THE ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE GREENS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WEST. COLD DENSE
AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO SCOUR OUT EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN
SPINE...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10F WARMER
THIS AFTERNOON IN COMPARISON TO OBSERVED CONDITIONS YESTERDAY.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NERN OH/SWRN NY WILL MAKE RAPID NEWD
TRANSLATION...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED 50-55 KT 900-850MB LOW-LEVEL
JET. BASED ON NAM12/BTV-4/BTV-12KM WRF...LOOKING AT SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS AROUND 21Z (4PM)...BUT RADAR
TRENDS AT 1730Z SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE
TO OUR SOUTH. GRIDS ALREADY HAVE PRECIPITATION TYPE WELL-
COVERED...WITH A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SOME ICE PELLETS FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SNOW/IP ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS. QUICK/SHORT- DURATION EVENT YIELDS LESS THAN
0.10" QPF FOR MOST LOCATIONS...SO ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION LESS
THAN 1". NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST
SPOTS. COULD BE A SLICK SPOT OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
(ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATION)...WHICH IS WELL COVERED IN HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG S/SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MOST OF NRN NY TO TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z..WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SLEEP AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE SLEET AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN AS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL HINDER SCOURING OUT THE
COLDER AIR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY 06Z/SUNDAY, WARMER
AIR AND THEREFORE RAIN HAVE TAKEN OVER NRN NY, THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL INFILTRATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINTRY MIX THE LONGEST WILL BE THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COME 1Z SUNDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN VERMONT...ALLOWING FOR A DRYING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THIS POINT. ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WILL LIMITED TO A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE
ACCRETION, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCRETION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. ONLY EXPECTING
MOST AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN TO SEE A TRACE, WITH
MELTING OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS PART OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTH WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE.
EXPECT 0.25- 0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ABUNDANT ON MONDAY, SO WILL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
OUT OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT,
WHICH IS FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN
FOR AN OPEN WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE
COASTAL FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY
THANKSGIVING. ECMWF INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT
SHARPENS UP THE LONGWAVE500 MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY
TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND
MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD AROUND 06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST
OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY FORECAST FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER 500 MB TROUGH. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL DAY BEFORE THANKSGIVING,
IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON
THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW...GFS AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU 06Z, THEN CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME MIXED PRECIP. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25 KTS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY AT BTV AND PBG, AND AIRCRAFT WILL
ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF
WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY EARLY ON SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE
PREVAILING -RA AFT 00Z KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP
WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY
THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES
RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX. PRECIP SHOULD
BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 12Z AT ALL SITES...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THRU 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY... WINDS GENERALLY
OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, PEAKING BETWEEN
20 AND 30 KNOTS TODAY AND LASTING INTO THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET, RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON
MARINE...KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 221753
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1253 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRING GUSTY WINDS AND
MORE RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1249 PM EST SATURDAY...SWLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE
BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY. SEEING WINDS OF 15-25
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH IN THE WIDER VALLEYS (CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE). THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO
GETTING SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMEST AT NOON (MALONE 37F AND
ELLENBERG DEPOT 39F).

THE INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL ALSO MARK THE ONSET OF A MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. DESPITE
THE ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE GREENS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WEST. COLD DENSE
AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO SCOUR OUT EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN
SPINE...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10F WARMER
THIS AFTERNOON IN COMPARISON TO OBSERVED CONDITIONS YESTERDAY.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NERN OH/SWRN NY WILL MAKE RAPID NEWD
TRANSLATION...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED 50-55 KT 900-850MB LOW-LEVEL
JET. BASED ON NAM12/BTV-4/BTV-12KM WRF...LOOKING AT SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS AROUND 21Z (4PM)...BUT RADAR
TRENDS AT 1730Z SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE
TO OUR SOUTH. GRIDS ALREADY HAVE PRECIPITATION TYPE WELL-
COVERED...WITH A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SOME ICE PELLETS FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SNOW/IP ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS. QUICK/SHORT- DURATION EVENT YIELDS LESS THAN
0.10" QPF FOR MOST LOCATIONS...SO ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION LESS
THAN 1". NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST
SPOTS. COULD BE A SLICK SPOT OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
(ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATION)...WHICH IS WELL COVERED IN HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG S/SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MOST OF NRN NY TO TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z..WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SLEEP AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE SLEET AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN AS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL HINDER SCOURING OUT THE
COLDER AIR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY 06Z/SUNDAY, WARMER
AIR AND THEREFORE RAIN HAVE TAKEN OVER NRN NY, THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL INFILTRATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINTRY MIX THE LONGEST WILL BE THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COME 1Z SUNDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN VERMONT...ALLOWING FOR A DRYING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THIS POINT. ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WILL LIMITED TO A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE
ACCRETION, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCRETION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. ONLY EXPECTING
MOST AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN TO SEE A TRACE, WITH
MELTING OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS PART OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTH WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE.
EXPECT 0.25- 0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ABUNDANT ON MONDAY, SO WILL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
OUT OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT,
WHICH IS FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN
FOR AN OPEN WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE
COASTAL FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY
THANKSGIVING. ECMWF INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT
SHARPENS UP THE LONGWAVE500 MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY
TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND
MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD AROUND 06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST
OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY FORECAST FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER 500 MB TROUGH. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL DAY BEFORE THANKSGIVING,
IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON
THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW...GFS AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU 06Z, THEN CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME MIXED PRECIP. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25 KTS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY AT BTV AND PBG, AND AIRCRAFT WILL
ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF
WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY EARLY ON SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE
PREVAILING -RA AFT 00Z KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP
WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY
THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES
RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX. PRECIP SHOULD
BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 12Z AT ALL SITES...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THRU 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY... WINDS GENERALLY
OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, PEAKING BETWEEN
20 AND 30 KNOTS TODAY AND LASTING INTO THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET, RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON
MARINE...KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 221753
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1253 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRING GUSTY WINDS AND
MORE RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1249 PM EST SATURDAY...SWLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE
BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY. SEEING WINDS OF 15-25
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH IN THE WIDER VALLEYS (CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE). THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO
GETTING SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMEST AT NOON (MALONE 37F AND
ELLENBERG DEPOT 39F).

THE INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL ALSO MARK THE ONSET OF A MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. DESPITE
THE ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE GREENS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WEST. COLD DENSE
AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO SCOUR OUT EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN
SPINE...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10F WARMER
THIS AFTERNOON IN COMPARISON TO OBSERVED CONDITIONS YESTERDAY.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NERN OH/SWRN NY WILL MAKE RAPID NEWD
TRANSLATION...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED 50-55 KT 900-850MB LOW-LEVEL
JET. BASED ON NAM12/BTV-4/BTV-12KM WRF...LOOKING AT SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS AROUND 21Z (4PM)...BUT RADAR
TRENDS AT 1730Z SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE
TO OUR SOUTH. GRIDS ALREADY HAVE PRECIPITATION TYPE WELL-
COVERED...WITH A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SOME ICE PELLETS FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SNOW/IP ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS. QUICK/SHORT- DURATION EVENT YIELDS LESS THAN
0.10" QPF FOR MOST LOCATIONS...SO ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION LESS
THAN 1". NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST
SPOTS. COULD BE A SLICK SPOT OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
(ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATION)...WHICH IS WELL COVERED IN HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG S/SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MOST OF NRN NY TO TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z..WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SLEEP AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE SLEET AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN AS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL HINDER SCOURING OUT THE
COLDER AIR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY 06Z/SUNDAY, WARMER
AIR AND THEREFORE RAIN HAVE TAKEN OVER NRN NY, THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL INFILTRATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINTRY MIX THE LONGEST WILL BE THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COME 1Z SUNDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN VERMONT...ALLOWING FOR A DRYING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THIS POINT. ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WILL LIMITED TO A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE
ACCRETION, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCRETION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. ONLY EXPECTING
MOST AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN TO SEE A TRACE, WITH
MELTING OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS PART OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTH WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE.
EXPECT 0.25- 0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ABUNDANT ON MONDAY, SO WILL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
OUT OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT,
WHICH IS FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN
FOR AN OPEN WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE
COASTAL FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY
THANKSGIVING. ECMWF INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT
SHARPENS UP THE LONGWAVE500 MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY
TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND
MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD AROUND 06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST
OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY FORECAST FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER 500 MB TROUGH. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL DAY BEFORE THANKSGIVING,
IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON
THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW...GFS AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU 06Z, THEN CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME MIXED PRECIP. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25 KTS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY AT BTV AND PBG, AND AIRCRAFT WILL
ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF
WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY EARLY ON SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE
PREVAILING -RA AFT 00Z KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP
WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY
THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES
RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX. PRECIP SHOULD
BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 12Z AT ALL SITES...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THRU 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY... WINDS GENERALLY
OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, PEAKING BETWEEN
20 AND 30 KNOTS TODAY AND LASTING INTO THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET, RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON
MARINE...KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 221753
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1253 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRING GUSTY WINDS AND
MORE RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1249 PM EST SATURDAY...SWLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE
BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY. SEEING WINDS OF 15-25
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH IN THE WIDER VALLEYS (CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE). THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO
GETTING SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMEST AT NOON (MALONE 37F AND
ELLENBERG DEPOT 39F).

THE INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL ALSO MARK THE ONSET OF A MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. DESPITE
THE ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE GREENS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WEST. COLD DENSE
AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO SCOUR OUT EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN
SPINE...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10F WARMER
THIS AFTERNOON IN COMPARISON TO OBSERVED CONDITIONS YESTERDAY.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NERN OH/SWRN NY WILL MAKE RAPID NEWD
TRANSLATION...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED 50-55 KT 900-850MB LOW-LEVEL
JET. BASED ON NAM12/BTV-4/BTV-12KM WRF...LOOKING AT SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS AROUND 21Z (4PM)...BUT RADAR
TRENDS AT 1730Z SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE
TO OUR SOUTH. GRIDS ALREADY HAVE PRECIPITATION TYPE WELL-
COVERED...WITH A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SOME ICE PELLETS FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SNOW/IP ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS. QUICK/SHORT- DURATION EVENT YIELDS LESS THAN
0.10" QPF FOR MOST LOCATIONS...SO ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION LESS
THAN 1". NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST
SPOTS. COULD BE A SLICK SPOT OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
(ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATION)...WHICH IS WELL COVERED IN HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG S/SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MOST OF NRN NY TO TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z..WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SLEEP AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE SLEET AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN AS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL HINDER SCOURING OUT THE
COLDER AIR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY 06Z/SUNDAY, WARMER
AIR AND THEREFORE RAIN HAVE TAKEN OVER NRN NY, THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL INFILTRATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINTRY MIX THE LONGEST WILL BE THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COME 1Z SUNDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN VERMONT...ALLOWING FOR A DRYING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THIS POINT. ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WILL LIMITED TO A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE
ACCRETION, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCRETION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. ONLY EXPECTING
MOST AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN TO SEE A TRACE, WITH
MELTING OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS PART OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTH WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE.
EXPECT 0.25- 0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ABUNDANT ON MONDAY, SO WILL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
OUT OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT,
WHICH IS FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN
FOR AN OPEN WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE
COASTAL FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY
THANKSGIVING. ECMWF INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT
SHARPENS UP THE LONGWAVE500 MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY
TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND
MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD AROUND 06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST
OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY FORECAST FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER 500 MB TROUGH. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL DAY BEFORE THANKSGIVING,
IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON
THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW...GFS AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU 06Z, THEN CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME MIXED PRECIP. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25 KTS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY AT BTV AND PBG, AND AIRCRAFT WILL
ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF
WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY EARLY ON SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE
PREVAILING -RA AFT 00Z KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP
WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY
THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES
RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX. PRECIP SHOULD
BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 12Z AT ALL SITES...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THRU 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY... WINDS GENERALLY
OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, PEAKING BETWEEN
20 AND 30 KNOTS TODAY AND LASTING INTO THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET, RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON
MARINE...KGM



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 221739
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1239 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY
TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE
VALLEY...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...

AS OF 1222 PM EST...INITIAL BAND OF CLOUDS IS NOW EAST OF THE
REGION ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR PARTIAL
SUNSHINE FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN AREAS. THESE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE TO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND WELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE NEXT
BATCH OF CLOUDS IS CURRENTLY UPSTREAM ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NY AND IS RAPIDLY ADVANCING TOWARDS OUR AREA. WILL ALLOW FOR
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES BY THE MID TO LATE AFTN HOURS FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA. REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS SOME PRECIP OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY AS WELL...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN
OR MIXED PRECIP.

AS EXPECTED...THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REACH THE MOHAWK
VALLEY REGION...WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE
HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY NORTH BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE GROUND
WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR LIGHT
ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MID TO UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK
SOUTH WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
FROM ALBANY SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL
EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
LIQUID RAIN /PERHAPS A FEW SLEET PELLETS/...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N
AND W OF ALBANY...SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL. AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES
COULD BECOME RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST
PROBABILITY OF FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND
MESONET SFC OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY
OCCUR EVEN OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED
BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1 AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION AND MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS.

THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SHOWERS WILL
START TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS AND HAVE MENTIONED VCSH AT KGFL BEGINNING AT 22Z. AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES...EXPECT OVERCAST CLOUDS AROUND 5-7 KFT. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 18-20 KNOTS AT KPOU AS BETTER MIXING FROM A DOWNSLOPING
FLOW BRIEFLY INCREASES GUSTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR FREEZING WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGFL
AFTER 00Z...WITH A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. HAVE
LEFT JUST VCSH IN THE TAFS AT KALB...KPOU...KPSF AS PRECIPITATION MAY
NOT REACH THESE AREAS. IF PRECIPITATION DOES REACH THESE
AREAS...KPSF MAY ALSO HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN
06Z-09Z...WITH JUST -SHRA EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPOU WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING. CEILINGS WILL
DECREASE TO MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITES IN ANY
FREEZING RAIN THAT OCCURS.

CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TO A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS DECK AFTER
12Z WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 221739
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1239 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY
TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE
VALLEY...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...

AS OF 1222 PM EST...INITIAL BAND OF CLOUDS IS NOW EAST OF THE
REGION ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR PARTIAL
SUNSHINE FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN AREAS. THESE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE TO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND WELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE NEXT
BATCH OF CLOUDS IS CURRENTLY UPSTREAM ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NY AND IS RAPIDLY ADVANCING TOWARDS OUR AREA. WILL ALLOW FOR
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES BY THE MID TO LATE AFTN HOURS FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA. REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS SOME PRECIP OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY AS WELL...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN
OR MIXED PRECIP.

AS EXPECTED...THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REACH THE MOHAWK
VALLEY REGION...WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE
HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY NORTH BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE GROUND
WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR LIGHT
ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MID TO UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK
SOUTH WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
FROM ALBANY SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL
EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
LIQUID RAIN /PERHAPS A FEW SLEET PELLETS/...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N
AND W OF ALBANY...SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL. AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES
COULD BECOME RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST
PROBABILITY OF FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND
MESONET SFC OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY
OCCUR EVEN OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED
BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1 AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION AND MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS.

THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SHOWERS WILL
START TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS AND HAVE MENTIONED VCSH AT KGFL BEGINNING AT 22Z. AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES...EXPECT OVERCAST CLOUDS AROUND 5-7 KFT. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 18-20 KNOTS AT KPOU AS BETTER MIXING FROM A DOWNSLOPING
FLOW BRIEFLY INCREASES GUSTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR FREEZING WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGFL
AFTER 00Z...WITH A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. HAVE
LEFT JUST VCSH IN THE TAFS AT KALB...KPOU...KPSF AS PRECIPITATION MAY
NOT REACH THESE AREAS. IF PRECIPITATION DOES REACH THESE
AREAS...KPSF MAY ALSO HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN
06Z-09Z...WITH JUST -SHRA EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPOU WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING. CEILINGS WILL
DECREASE TO MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITES IN ANY
FREEZING RAIN THAT OCCURS.

CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TO A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS DECK AFTER
12Z WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL







000
FXUS61 KBTV 221736
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1236 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRING GUSTY WINDS AND
MORE RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1016 AM EST SATURDAY...SWLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE
BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY. MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING
WAS TO INCREASE SWLY WINDS IN THE WIDER VALLEYS (CHAMPLAIN AND ST.
LAWRENCE)...INCLUDING GUSTS 30-35 MPH THROUGH MID-LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY ALSO CONTINUES FOR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN FOR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KTS.

THE INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL ALSO MARK THE ONSET OF A MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. DESPITE
THE ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE GREENS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WEST. COLD DENSE
AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO SCOUR OUT EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN
SPINE...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10F WARMER
THIS AFTERNOON IN COMPARISON TO OBSERVED CONDITIONS YESTERDAY.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NERN OH/SWRN NY WILL MAKE RAPID NEWD
TRANSLATION...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED 50-55 KT 900-850MB LOW-LEVEL
JET. BASED ON NAM12/BTV-4/BTV-12KM WRF...LOOKING AT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS AROUND 21Z (4PM). GRIDS ALREADY
HAVE PRECIPITATION TYPE WELL-COVERED...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SOME
ICE PELLETS FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SNOW/IP ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. QUICK/SHORT-DURATION EVENT
YIELDS LESS THAN 0.10" QPF FOR MOST LOCATIONS...SO ANY FROZEN
PRECIPITATION LESS THAN 1". NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST
SPOTS. COULD BE A SLICK SPOT OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
(ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATION)...WHICH IS WELL COVERED IN HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. PRIMARY CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS
WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG S/SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MOST OF NRN NY TO TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z..WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SLEEP AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE SLEET AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN AS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL HINDER SCOURING OUT THE
COLDER AIR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY 06Z/SUNDAY, WARMER
AIR AND THEREFORE RAIN HAVE TAKEN OVER NRN NY, THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL INFILTRATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINTRY MIX THE LONGEST WILL BE THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COME 1Z SUNDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN VERMONT...ALLOWING FOR A DRYING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THIS POINT. ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WILL LIMITED TO A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE
ACCRETION, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCRETION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. ONLY EXPECTING
MOST AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN TO SEE A TRACE, WITH
MELTING OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS PART OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTH WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE.
EXPECT 0.25- 0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ABUNDANT ON MONDAY, SO WILL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
OUT OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT,
WHICH IS FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN
FOR AN OPEN WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE
COASTAL FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY
THANKSGIVING. ECMWF INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT
SHARPENS UP THE LONGWAVE500 MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY
TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND
MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD AROUND 06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST
OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY FORECAST FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER 500 MB TROUGH. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL DAY BEFORE THANKSGIVING,
IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON
THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW...GFS AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU 06Z, THEN CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME MIXED PRECIP. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25 KTS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY AT BTV AND PBG, AND AIRCRAFT WILL
ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF
WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY EARLY ON SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE
PREVAILING -RA AFT 00Z KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP
WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY
THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES
RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX. PRECIP SHOULD
BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 12Z AT ALL SITES...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THRU 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY... WINDS GENERALLY
OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, PEAKING BETWEEN
20 AND 30 KNOTS TODAY AND LASTING INTO THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET, RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON
MARINE...KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 221736
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1236 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRING GUSTY WINDS AND
MORE RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1016 AM EST SATURDAY...SWLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE
BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY. MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING
WAS TO INCREASE SWLY WINDS IN THE WIDER VALLEYS (CHAMPLAIN AND ST.
LAWRENCE)...INCLUDING GUSTS 30-35 MPH THROUGH MID-LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY ALSO CONTINUES FOR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN FOR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KTS.

THE INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL ALSO MARK THE ONSET OF A MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. DESPITE
THE ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE GREENS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WEST. COLD DENSE
AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO SCOUR OUT EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN
SPINE...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10F WARMER
THIS AFTERNOON IN COMPARISON TO OBSERVED CONDITIONS YESTERDAY.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NERN OH/SWRN NY WILL MAKE RAPID NEWD
TRANSLATION...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED 50-55 KT 900-850MB LOW-LEVEL
JET. BASED ON NAM12/BTV-4/BTV-12KM WRF...LOOKING AT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS AROUND 21Z (4PM). GRIDS ALREADY
HAVE PRECIPITATION TYPE WELL-COVERED...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SOME
ICE PELLETS FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SNOW/IP ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. QUICK/SHORT-DURATION EVENT
YIELDS LESS THAN 0.10" QPF FOR MOST LOCATIONS...SO ANY FROZEN
PRECIPITATION LESS THAN 1". NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST
SPOTS. COULD BE A SLICK SPOT OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
(ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATION)...WHICH IS WELL COVERED IN HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. PRIMARY CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS
WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG S/SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MOST OF NRN NY TO TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z..WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SLEEP AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE SLEET AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN AS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL HINDER SCOURING OUT THE
COLDER AIR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY 06Z/SUNDAY, WARMER
AIR AND THEREFORE RAIN HAVE TAKEN OVER NRN NY, THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL INFILTRATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINTRY MIX THE LONGEST WILL BE THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COME 1Z SUNDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN VERMONT...ALLOWING FOR A DRYING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THIS POINT. ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WILL LIMITED TO A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE
ACCRETION, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCRETION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. ONLY EXPECTING
MOST AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN TO SEE A TRACE, WITH
MELTING OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS PART OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTH WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE.
EXPECT 0.25- 0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ABUNDANT ON MONDAY, SO WILL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
OUT OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT,
WHICH IS FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN
FOR AN OPEN WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE
COASTAL FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY
THANKSGIVING. ECMWF INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT
SHARPENS UP THE LONGWAVE500 MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY
TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND
MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD AROUND 06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST
OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY FORECAST FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER 500 MB TROUGH. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL DAY BEFORE THANKSGIVING,
IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON
THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW...GFS AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THRU 06Z, THEN CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME MIXED PRECIP. SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25 KTS OCCURRING ESPECIALLY AT BTV AND PBG, AND AIRCRAFT WILL
ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF
WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY EARLY ON SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE
PREVAILING -RA AFT 00Z KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP
WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY
THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES
RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX. PRECIP SHOULD
BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 12Z AT ALL SITES...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THRU 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...COASTAL SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY... WINDS GENERALLY
OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, PEAKING BETWEEN
20 AND 30 KNOTS TODAY AND LASTING INTO THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET, RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...NEILES/HANSON
MARINE...KGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 221722
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1222 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY
TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE
VALLEY...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...

AS OF 1222 PM EST...INITIAL BAND OF CLOUDS IS NOW EAST OF THE
REGION ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR PARTIAL
SUNSHINE FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN AREAS. THESE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE TO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND WELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE NEXT
BATCH OF CLOUDS IS CURRENTLY UPSTREAM ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NY AND IS RAPIDLY ADVANCING TOWARDS OUR AREA. WILL ALLOW FOR
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES BY THE MID TO LATE AFTN HOURS FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA. REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS SOME PRECIP OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY AS WELL...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN
OR MIXED PRECIP.

AS EXPECTED...THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REACH THE MOHAWK
VALLEY REGION...WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE
HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY NORTH BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE GROUND
WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR LIGHT
ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MID TO UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK
SOUTH WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
FROM ALBANY SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL
EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
LIQUID RAIN /PERHAPS A FEW SLEET PELLETS/...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N
AND W OF ALBANY...SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL. AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES
COULD BECOME RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST
PROBABILITY OF FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND
MESONET SFC OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY
OCCUR EVEN OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED
BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1 AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SUNDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN BETWEEN 13Z-15Z/SAT.
THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND
EAST AFTER 20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR
KALB/KGFL/KPSF FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE
CIGS WL REMAIN VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND
KPSF. ONCE AGAIN THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR
-FZRAPL AT KGFL AND KPSF.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12
KTS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE
TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL







000
FXUS61 KALY 221722
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1222 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY
TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE
VALLEY...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...

AS OF 1222 PM EST...INITIAL BAND OF CLOUDS IS NOW EAST OF THE
REGION ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR PARTIAL
SUNSHINE FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN AREAS. THESE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE TO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND WELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE NEXT
BATCH OF CLOUDS IS CURRENTLY UPSTREAM ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NY AND IS RAPIDLY ADVANCING TOWARDS OUR AREA. WILL ALLOW FOR
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES BY THE MID TO LATE AFTN HOURS FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA. REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS SOME PRECIP OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY AS WELL...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN
OR MIXED PRECIP.

AS EXPECTED...THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REACH THE MOHAWK
VALLEY REGION...WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE
HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY NORTH BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE GROUND
WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR LIGHT
ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MID TO UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK
SOUTH WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
FROM ALBANY SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL
EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
LIQUID RAIN /PERHAPS A FEW SLEET PELLETS/...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N
AND W OF ALBANY...SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL. AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES
COULD BECOME RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST
PROBABILITY OF FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND
MESONET SFC OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY
OCCUR EVEN OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED
BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1 AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SUNDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN BETWEEN 13Z-15Z/SAT.
THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND
EAST AFTER 20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR
KALB/KGFL/KPSF FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE
CIGS WL REMAIN VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND
KPSF. ONCE AGAIN THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR
-FZRAPL AT KGFL AND KPSF.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12
KTS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE
TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KBTV 221524
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1024 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MORE
RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1016 AM EST SATURDAY...SWLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE
BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY. MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING
WAS TO INCREASE SWLY WINDS IN THE WIDER VALLEYS (CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE)...INCLUDING GUSTS 30-35 MPH THROUGH MID-LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY ALSO CONTINUES FOR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN FOR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KTS.

THE INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL ALSO MARK THE ONSET OF A MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. DESPITE
THE ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE GREENS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WEST. COLD DENSE
AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO SCOUR OUT EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN
SPINE...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10F WARMER
THIS AFTERNOON IN COMPARISON TO OBSERVED CONDITIONS YESTERDAY.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NERN OH/SWRN NY WILL MAKE RAPID NEWD
TRANSLATION...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED 50-55 KT 900-850MB LOW-LEVEL
JET. BASED ON NAM12/BTV-4/BTV-12KM WRF...LOOKING AT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS AROUND 21Z (4PM). GRIDS ALREADY
HAVE PRECIPITATION TYPE WELL-COVERED...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SOME
ICE PELLETS FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SNOW/IP ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. QUICK/SHORT-DURATION EVENT
YIELDS LESS THAN 0.10" QPF FOR MOST LOCATIONS...SO ANY FROZEN
PRECIPITATION LESS THAN 1". NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST
SPOTS. COULD BE A SLICK SPOT OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
(ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATION)...WHICH IS WELL COVERED IN HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. PRIMARY CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS
WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG S/SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MOST OF NRN NY TO TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z..WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SLEEP AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE SLEET AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN AS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL HINDER SCOURING OUT THE
COLDER AIR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY 06Z/SUNDAY, WARMER
AIR AND THEREFORE RAIN HAVE TAKEN OVER NRN NY, THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL INFILTRATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINTRY MIX THE LONGEST WILL BE THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COME 1Z SUNDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN VERMONT...ALLOWING FOR A DRYING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THIS POINT. ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WILL LIMITED TO A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE
ACCRETION, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCRETION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. ONLY EXPECTING
MOST AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN TO SEE A TRACE, WITH
MELTING OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS PART OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTH WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE.
EXPECT 0.25- 0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ABUNDANT ON MONDAY, SO WILL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN FOR AN OPEN
WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY THANKSGIVING. ECMWF
INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT SHARPENS UP THE LONGWAVE500
MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD AROUND
06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY FORECAST
FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER 500 MB
TROUGH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL DAY
BEFORE THANKSGIVING, IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW...GFS
AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE IN THE LAST HALF TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME
MIXED PRECIP. EXCEPTION EARLY ON AT KSLK/KMSS WHERE MVFR CIGS
PRESENT IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECTING THESE LOWER CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATE AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO TAKE OVER FOR REST OF THE DAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO INCREASE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25KTS WILL BE COMMON, AND AIRCRAFT WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST
WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP
TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY EARLY ON
SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. ADDED -RA AFT 00Z
KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN
FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON
LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A
PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z - 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY...
WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, PEAKING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS TODAY AND LASTING INTO THIS
EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET, RESULTING IN
ROUGH CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...KGM



000
FXUS61 KBTV 221524
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1024 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MORE
RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1016 AM EST SATURDAY...SWLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE
BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY. MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING
WAS TO INCREASE SWLY WINDS IN THE WIDER VALLEYS (CHAMPLAIN AND
ST. LAWRENCE)...INCLUDING GUSTS 30-35 MPH THROUGH MID-LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY ALSO CONTINUES FOR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN FOR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KTS.

THE INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL ALSO MARK THE ONSET OF A MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. DESPITE
THE ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE GREENS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WEST. COLD DENSE
AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO SCOUR OUT EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN
SPINE...SO LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10F WARMER
THIS AFTERNOON IN COMPARISON TO OBSERVED CONDITIONS YESTERDAY.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NERN OH/SWRN NY WILL MAKE RAPID NEWD
TRANSLATION...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED 50-55 KT 900-850MB LOW-LEVEL
JET. BASED ON NAM12/BTV-4/BTV-12KM WRF...LOOKING AT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS AROUND 21Z (4PM). GRIDS ALREADY
HAVE PRECIPITATION TYPE WELL-COVERED...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SOME
ICE PELLETS FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND SNOW/IP ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. QUICK/SHORT-DURATION EVENT
YIELDS LESS THAN 0.10" QPF FOR MOST LOCATIONS...SO ANY FROZEN
PRECIPITATION LESS THAN 1". NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST
SPOTS. COULD BE A SLICK SPOT OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
(ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATION)...WHICH IS WELL COVERED IN HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. PRIMARY CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS
WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG S/SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MOST OF NRN NY TO TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z..WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SLEEP AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE SLEET AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN AS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL HINDER SCOURING OUT THE
COLDER AIR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY 06Z/SUNDAY, WARMER
AIR AND THEREFORE RAIN HAVE TAKEN OVER NRN NY, THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL INFILTRATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINTRY MIX THE LONGEST WILL BE THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COME 1Z SUNDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN VERMONT...ALLOWING FOR A DRYING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THIS POINT. ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WILL LIMITED TO A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE
ACCRETION, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCRETION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. ONLY EXPECTING
MOST AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN TO SEE A TRACE, WITH
MELTING OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS PART OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTH WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE.
EXPECT 0.25- 0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ABUNDANT ON MONDAY, SO WILL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN FOR AN OPEN
WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY THANKSGIVING. ECMWF
INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT SHARPENS UP THE LONGWAVE500
MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD AROUND
06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY FORECAST
FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER 500 MB
TROUGH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL DAY
BEFORE THANKSGIVING, IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW...GFS
AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE IN THE LAST HALF TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME
MIXED PRECIP. EXCEPTION EARLY ON AT KSLK/KMSS WHERE MVFR CIGS
PRESENT IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECTING THESE LOWER CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATE AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO TAKE OVER FOR REST OF THE DAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO INCREASE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25KTS WILL BE COMMON, AND AIRCRAFT WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST
WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP
TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY EARLY ON
SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. ADDED -RA AFT 00Z
KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN
FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON
LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A
PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z - 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY...
WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, PEAKING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS TODAY AND LASTING INTO THIS
EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET, RESULTING IN
ROUGH CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...KGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 221427
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
927 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY
TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE
VALLEY...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...

AS OF 927 AM EST...IN RESPONSE TO RAPID WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...MID
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
BREAKS ACROSS THE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. THERE MAY
ACTUAL EVEN BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SUNSHINE FOR A GOOD PART OF
THE AREA BEHIND THIS INITIAL BAND OF CLOUDS FOR LATE THIS
MORNING...BUT MORE THICKER AND LOWER CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
NY AND NORTHWESTERN PA WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS OUR AREA FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

IN ADDITION...A PAIR OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES...ONE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED DYNAMICAL LIFT AS WELL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY
NORTH BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE
GROUND WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR
LIGHT ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MID TO UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK
SOUTH WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
FROM ALBANY SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
LIQUID RAIN /PERHAPS A FEW SLEET PELLETS/...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N
AND W OF ALBANY...SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL. AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES
COULD BECOME RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST
PROBABILITY OF FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND
MESONET SFC OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY
OCCUR EVEN OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED
BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1 AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SUNDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN BETWEEN 13Z-15Z/SAT.
THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND
EAST AFTER 20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR
KALB/KGFL/KPSF FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE
CIGS WL REMAIN VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND
KPSF. ONCE AGAIN THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR
-FZRAPL AT KGFL AND KPSF.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12
KTS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE
TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 221427
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
927 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY
TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE
VALLEY...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...

AS OF 927 AM EST...IN RESPONSE TO RAPID WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...MID
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
BREAKS ACROSS THE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. THERE MAY
ACTUAL EVEN BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SUNSHINE FOR A GOOD PART OF
THE AREA BEHIND THIS INITIAL BAND OF CLOUDS FOR LATE THIS
MORNING...BUT MORE THICKER AND LOWER CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
NY AND NORTHWESTERN PA WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS OUR AREA FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

IN ADDITION...A PAIR OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES...ONE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED DYNAMICAL LIFT AS WELL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY
NORTH BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE
GROUND WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR
LIGHT ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MID TO UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK
SOUTH WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
FROM ALBANY SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
LIQUID RAIN /PERHAPS A FEW SLEET PELLETS/...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N
AND W OF ALBANY...SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL. AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES
COULD BECOME RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST
PROBABILITY OF FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND
MESONET SFC OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY
OCCUR EVEN OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED
BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1 AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SUNDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN BETWEEN 13Z-15Z/SAT.
THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND
EAST AFTER 20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR
KALB/KGFL/KPSF FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE
CIGS WL REMAIN VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND
KPSF. ONCE AGAIN THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR
-FZRAPL AT KGFL AND KPSF.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12
KTS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE
TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 221427
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
927 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY
TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE
VALLEY...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...

AS OF 927 AM EST...IN RESPONSE TO RAPID WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...MID
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
BREAKS ACROSS THE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. THERE MAY
ACTUAL EVEN BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SUNSHINE FOR A GOOD PART OF
THE AREA BEHIND THIS INITIAL BAND OF CLOUDS FOR LATE THIS
MORNING...BUT MORE THICKER AND LOWER CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
NY AND NORTHWESTERN PA WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS OUR AREA FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

IN ADDITION...A PAIR OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES...ONE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED DYNAMICAL LIFT AS WELL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY
NORTH BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE
GROUND WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR
LIGHT ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MID TO UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK
SOUTH WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
FROM ALBANY SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
LIQUID RAIN /PERHAPS A FEW SLEET PELLETS/...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N
AND W OF ALBANY...SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL. AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES
COULD BECOME RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST
PROBABILITY OF FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND
MESONET SFC OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY
OCCUR EVEN OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED
BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1 AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SUNDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN BETWEEN 13Z-15Z/SAT.
THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND
EAST AFTER 20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR
KALB/KGFL/KPSF FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE
CIGS WL REMAIN VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND
KPSF. ONCE AGAIN THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR
-FZRAPL AT KGFL AND KPSF.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12
KTS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE
TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 221427
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
927 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY
TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE
VALLEY...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...

AS OF 927 AM EST...IN RESPONSE TO RAPID WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...MID
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
BREAKS ACROSS THE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. THERE MAY
ACTUAL EVEN BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SUNSHINE FOR A GOOD PART OF
THE AREA BEHIND THIS INITIAL BAND OF CLOUDS FOR LATE THIS
MORNING...BUT MORE THICKER AND LOWER CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
NY AND NORTHWESTERN PA WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS OUR AREA FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

IN ADDITION...A PAIR OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES...ONE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED DYNAMICAL LIFT AS WELL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY
NORTH BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE
GROUND WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR
LIGHT ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MID TO UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK
SOUTH WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
FROM ALBANY SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
LIQUID RAIN /PERHAPS A FEW SLEET PELLETS/...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N
AND W OF ALBANY...SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL. AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES
COULD BECOME RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST
PROBABILITY OF FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND
MESONET SFC OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY
OCCUR EVEN OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED
BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1 AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SUNDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN BETWEEN 13Z-15Z/SAT.
THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND
EAST AFTER 20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR
KALB/KGFL/KPSF FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE
CIGS WL REMAIN VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND
KPSF. ONCE AGAIN THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR
-FZRAPL AT KGFL AND KPSF.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12
KTS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE
TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KBTV 221150
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
650 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MORE
RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 650 AM EST SATURDAY...OVERALL TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT FALLEN
AS LOW AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST THIS MORNING DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS
OVER MOST OF THE REGION. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST
AS SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THIS MORNING STARTS TO SLIDE EAST.

PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE ENDING THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS A RESULT,
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS
WILL BE THE FIRST AREAS TO SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET AND
POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG 850MB JET AROUND 40-50 KTS WHICH WILL
HELP HASTEN THE ARRIVAL OF WARM AIR. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BEFORE
00Z/SUNDAY...WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET OR RAIN WILL BE MORE
PREVALENT IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND INTO VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG S/SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MOST OF NRN NY TO TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z..WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SLEEP AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE SLEET AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN AS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL HINDER SCOURING OUT THE
COLDER AIR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY 06Z/SUNDAY, WARMER
AIR AND THEREFORE RAIN HAVE TAKEN OVER NRN NY, THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL INFILTRATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINTRY MIX THE LONGEST WILL BE THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COME 1Z SUNDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN VERMONT...ALLOWING FOR A DRYING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THIS POINT. ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WILL LIMITED TO A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE
ACCRETION, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCRETION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. ONLY EXPECTING
MOST AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN TO SEE A TRACE, WITH
MELTING OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS PART OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTH WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE.
EXPECT 0.25- 0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ABUNDANT ON MONDAY, SO WILL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN FOR AN OPEN
WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY THANKSGIVING. ECMWF
INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT SHARPENS UP THE LONGWAVE500
MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD AROUND
06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY FORECAST
FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER 500 MB
TROUGH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL DAY
BEFORE THANKSGIVING, IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW...GFS
AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE IN THE LAST HALF TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME
MIXED PRECIP. EXCEPTION EARLY ON AT KSLK/KMSS WHERE MVFR CIGS
PRESENT IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECTING THESE LOWER CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATE AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO TAKE OVER FOR REST OF THE DAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO INCREASE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25KTS WILL BE COMMON, AND AIRCRAFT WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST
WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP
TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY EARLY ON
SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. ADDED -RA AFT 00Z
KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN
FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON
LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A
PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z - 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY...
WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, PEAKING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS TODAY AND LASTING INTO THIS
EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET, RESULTING IN
ROUGH CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...KGM




000
FXUS61 KBTV 221150
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
650 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MORE
RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 650 AM EST SATURDAY...OVERALL TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT FALLEN
AS LOW AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST THIS MORNING DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS
OVER MOST OF THE REGION. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST
AS SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THIS MORNING STARTS TO SLIDE EAST.

PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE ENDING THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS A RESULT,
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS
WILL BE THE FIRST AREAS TO SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET AND
POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG 850MB JET AROUND 40-50 KTS WHICH WILL
HELP HASTEN THE ARRIVAL OF WARM AIR. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BEFORE
00Z/SUNDAY...WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET OR RAIN WILL BE MORE
PREVALENT IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND INTO VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG S/SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MOST OF NRN NY TO TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z..WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SLEEP AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE SLEET AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN AS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL HINDER SCOURING OUT THE
COLDER AIR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY 06Z/SUNDAY, WARMER
AIR AND THEREFORE RAIN HAVE TAKEN OVER NRN NY, THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL INFILTRATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINTRY MIX THE LONGEST WILL BE THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COME 1Z SUNDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN VERMONT...ALLOWING FOR A DRYING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THIS POINT. ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WILL LIMITED TO A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE
ACCRETION, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCRETION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. ONLY EXPECTING
MOST AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN TO SEE A TRACE, WITH
MELTING OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS PART OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTH WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE.
EXPECT 0.25- 0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ABUNDANT ON MONDAY, SO WILL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN FOR AN OPEN
WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY THANKSGIVING. ECMWF
INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT SHARPENS UP THE LONGWAVE500
MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD AROUND
06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY FORECAST
FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER 500 MB
TROUGH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL DAY
BEFORE THANKSGIVING, IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW...GFS
AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE IN THE LAST HALF TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME
MIXED PRECIP. EXCEPTION EARLY ON AT KSLK/KMSS WHERE MVFR CIGS
PRESENT IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECTING THESE LOWER CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATE AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO TAKE OVER FOR REST OF THE DAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO INCREASE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25KTS WILL BE COMMON, AND AIRCRAFT WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST
WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP
TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY EARLY ON
SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. ADDED -RA AFT 00Z
KSLK/MSS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN
FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON
LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A
PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z - 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY...
WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, PEAKING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS TODAY AND LASTING INTO THIS
EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET, RESULTING IN
ROUGH CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...KGM



000
FXUS61 KALY 221126
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
626 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY TO 5
AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

AS OF 630 AM EST...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. IN FACT...SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS
ARE CURRENTLY IN THESE NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO THE CLOUDS...IN THE
LOWER 20S...WHILE AREAS ACROSS NW CT AND WESTERN MA ARE AMONG THE
COLDEST...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER/MID TEENS.

SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING FOR AREAS S AND E OF
ALBANY...WHILE SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING. CLOUDS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.

IN ADDITION...A PAIR OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES...ONE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED DYNAMICAL LIFT AS WELL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY
NORTH BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE
GROUND WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR
LIGHT ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK SOUTH
WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM
ALBANY SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
ICE PELLETS OF LIQUID...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N AND W OF ALBANY...SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL.
AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES COULD BECOME
RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND MESONET SFC
OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR EVEN
OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1
AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SUNDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN BETWEEN 13Z-15Z/SAT.
THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND
EAST AFTER 20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR
KALB/KGFL/KPSF FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE
CIGS WL REMAIN VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND
KPSF. ONCE AGAIN THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR
-FZRAPL AT KGFL AND KPSF.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12
KTS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE
TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 221126
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
626 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY TO 5
AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

AS OF 630 AM EST...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. IN FACT...SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS
ARE CURRENTLY IN THESE NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO THE CLOUDS...IN THE
LOWER 20S...WHILE AREAS ACROSS NW CT AND WESTERN MA ARE AMONG THE
COLDEST...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER/MID TEENS.

SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING FOR AREAS S AND E OF
ALBANY...WHILE SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING. CLOUDS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.

IN ADDITION...A PAIR OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES...ONE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED DYNAMICAL LIFT AS WELL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY
NORTH BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE
GROUND WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR
LIGHT ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK SOUTH
WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM
ALBANY SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
ICE PELLETS OF LIQUID...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N AND W OF ALBANY...SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL.
AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES COULD BECOME
RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND MESONET SFC
OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR EVEN
OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1
AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SUNDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN BETWEEN 13Z-15Z/SAT.
THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND
EAST AFTER 20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR
KALB/KGFL/KPSF FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE
CIGS WL REMAIN VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND
KPSF. ONCE AGAIN THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR
-FZRAPL AT KGFL AND KPSF.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12
KTS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE
TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 221126
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
626 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY TO 5
AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

AS OF 630 AM EST...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. IN FACT...SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS
ARE CURRENTLY IN THESE NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO THE CLOUDS...IN THE
LOWER 20S...WHILE AREAS ACROSS NW CT AND WESTERN MA ARE AMONG THE
COLDEST...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER/MID TEENS.

SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING FOR AREAS S AND E OF
ALBANY...WHILE SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING. CLOUDS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.

IN ADDITION...A PAIR OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES...ONE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED DYNAMICAL LIFT AS WELL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY
NORTH BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE
GROUND WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR
LIGHT ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK SOUTH
WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM
ALBANY SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
ICE PELLETS OF LIQUID...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N AND W OF ALBANY...SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL.
AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES COULD BECOME
RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND MESONET SFC
OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR EVEN
OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1
AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SUNDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN BETWEEN 13Z-15Z/SAT.
THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND
EAST AFTER 20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR
KALB/KGFL/KPSF FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE
CIGS WL REMAIN VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND
KPSF. ONCE AGAIN THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR
-FZRAPL AT KGFL AND KPSF.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12
KTS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE
TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 221126
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
626 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY TO 5
AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

AS OF 630 AM EST...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. IN FACT...SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS
ARE CURRENTLY IN THESE NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO THE CLOUDS...IN THE
LOWER 20S...WHILE AREAS ACROSS NW CT AND WESTERN MA ARE AMONG THE
COLDEST...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER/MID TEENS.

SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING FOR AREAS S AND E OF
ALBANY...WHILE SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING. CLOUDS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.

IN ADDITION...A PAIR OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES...ONE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED DYNAMICAL LIFT AS WELL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY
NORTH BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE
GROUND WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR
LIGHT ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK SOUTH
WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM
ALBANY SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
ICE PELLETS OF LIQUID...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N AND W OF ALBANY...SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL.
AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES COULD BECOME
RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND MESONET SFC
OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR EVEN
OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1
AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SUNDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN BETWEEN 13Z-15Z/SAT.
THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND
EAST AFTER 20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR
KALB/KGFL/KPSF FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE
CIGS WL REMAIN VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND
KPSF. ONCE AGAIN THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR
-FZRAPL AT KGFL AND KPSF.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12
KTS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE
TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KBTV 221124
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
624 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MORE
RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SATURDAY...PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE ENDING
THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST FLOW
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH
WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY.
AS A RESULT, A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
ADIRONDACKS WILL BE THE FIRST AREAS TO SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET
AND POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG 850MB JET AROUND 40-50 KTS WHICH WILL
HELP HASTEN THE ARRIVAL OF WARM AIR. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BEFORE 00Z/SUNDAY...WHILE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET OR RAIN WILL BE MORE PREVALENT IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND INTO VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG S/SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MOST OF NRN NY TO TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z..WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SLEEP AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE SLEET AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN AS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL HINDER SCOURING OUT THE
COLDER AIR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY 06Z/SUNDAY, WARMER
AIR AND THEREFORE RAIN HAVE TAKEN OVER NRN NY, THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL INFILTRATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINTRY MIX THE LONGEST WILL BE THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COME 1Z SUNDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN VERMONT...ALLOWING FOR A DRYING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THIS POINT. ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WILL LIMITED TO A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE
ACCRETION, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCRETION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. ONLY EXPECTING MOST
AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN TO SEE A TRACE, WITH MELTING
OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS PART OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH
WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE. EXPECT 0.25-
0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN FOR AN OPEN
WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY THANKSGIVING. ECMWF
INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT SHARPENS UP THE LONGWAVE500
MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD AROUND
06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY FORECAST
FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER 500 MB
TROUGH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL DAY
BEFORE THANKSGIVING, IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW...GFS
AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE IN THE LAST HALF TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME
MIXED PRECIP. EXCEPTION EARLY ON AT KSLK/KMSS WHERE MVFR CIGS
PRESENT IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECTING THESE LOWER CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATE AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO TAKE OVER FOR REST OF THE DAY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
INCREASE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25KTS WILL BE COMMON, AND AIRCRAFT WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST
WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP
TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY EARLY ON SO
STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. ADDED -RA AFT 00Z KSLK/MSS
WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN
FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON
LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A
PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z - 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON... WINDS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
PEAKING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS STARTING AROUND NOON AND LASTING
INTO THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET,
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS
AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...KGM



000
FXUS61 KBTV 221124
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
624 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MORE
RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SATURDAY...PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE ENDING
THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST FLOW
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH
WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY.
AS A RESULT, A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
ADIRONDACKS WILL BE THE FIRST AREAS TO SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET
AND POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG 850MB JET AROUND 40-50 KTS WHICH WILL
HELP HASTEN THE ARRIVAL OF WARM AIR. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BEFORE 00Z/SUNDAY...WHILE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET OR RAIN WILL BE MORE PREVALENT IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND INTO VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG S/SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MOST OF NRN NY TO TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z..WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SLEEP AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE SLEET AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN AS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL HINDER SCOURING OUT THE
COLDER AIR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY 06Z/SUNDAY, WARMER
AIR AND THEREFORE RAIN HAVE TAKEN OVER NRN NY, THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL INFILTRATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINTRY MIX THE LONGEST WILL BE THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COME 1Z SUNDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN VERMONT...ALLOWING FOR A DRYING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THIS POINT. ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WILL LIMITED TO A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE
ACCRETION, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCRETION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. ONLY EXPECTING MOST
AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN TO SEE A TRACE, WITH MELTING
OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS PART OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH
WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE. EXPECT 0.25-
0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN FOR AN OPEN
WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY THANKSGIVING. ECMWF
INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT SHARPENS UP THE LONGWAVE500
MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD AROUND
06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY FORECAST
FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER 500 MB
TROUGH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL DAY
BEFORE THANKSGIVING, IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW...GFS
AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE IN THE LAST HALF TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME
MIXED PRECIP. EXCEPTION EARLY ON AT KSLK/KMSS WHERE MVFR CIGS
PRESENT IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECTING THESE LOWER CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATE AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO TAKE OVER FOR REST OF THE DAY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
INCREASE TODAY AS STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS
TO 25KTS WILL BE COMMON, AND AIRCRAFT WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST
WINDS OVER 40KTS ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP
TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY EARLY ON SO
STUCK WITH VCSH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. ADDED -RA AFT 00Z KSLK/MSS
WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND LIKELY POPS IN
FORECAST. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECIP WILL BE SCARCE IN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SO KBTV/KPBG VCSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH. COLDER TEMPS HOLD ON
LONGER KRUT/KMPV AS PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP, SO THOSE AREAS GOT A
PERIOD OF -RAPL MIX.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

12Z - 00Z MONDAY...MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST COMING TO AN END, -RAPL CHANGING TO -RA AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON... WINDS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
PEAKING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS STARTING AROUND NOON AND LASTING
INTO THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET,
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS
AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...KGM




000
FXUS61 KALY 221104
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
604 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY TO 5
AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

AS OF 4 AM EST...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE LINGERING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS. THESE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE IN PLACE...AS TEMPS HAVE DIPPED
INTO THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS.

FOR TODAY...SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...ESP FOR AREAS
S AND E OF ALBANY...WHILE SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO
EXPAND BACK ACROSS WESTERN AREAS BY MID MORNING. CLOUDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM W TO E ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.

IN ADDITION...A PAIR OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES...ONE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED DYNAMICAL LIFT AS WELL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY
NORTH TOWARD AND AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH COULD REACH FAR WESTERN
AREAS AS EARLY AS 3 OR 4 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE
GROUND WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR
LIGHT ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK SOUTH
WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM
ALBANY SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
ICE PELLETS OF LIQUID...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N AND W OF ALBANY...SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL.
AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES COULD BECOME
RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND MESONET SFC
OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR EVEN
OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1
AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SUNDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN BETWEEN 13Z-15Z/SAT.
THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND
EAST AFTER 20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR
KALB/KGFL/KPSF FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE
CIGS WL REMAIN VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND
KPSF. ONCE AGAIN THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR
-FZRAPL AT KGFL AND KPSF.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12
KTS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE
TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 221104
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
604 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY TO 5
AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

AS OF 4 AM EST...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE LINGERING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS. THESE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE IN PLACE...AS TEMPS HAVE DIPPED
INTO THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS.

FOR TODAY...SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...ESP FOR AREAS
S AND E OF ALBANY...WHILE SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO
EXPAND BACK ACROSS WESTERN AREAS BY MID MORNING. CLOUDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM W TO E ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.

IN ADDITION...A PAIR OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES...ONE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED DYNAMICAL LIFT AS WELL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY
NORTH TOWARD AND AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH COULD REACH FAR WESTERN
AREAS AS EARLY AS 3 OR 4 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE
GROUND WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR
LIGHT ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK SOUTH
WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM
ALBANY SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
ICE PELLETS OF LIQUID...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N AND W OF ALBANY...SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL.
AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES COULD BECOME
RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND MESONET SFC
OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR EVEN
OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1
AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SUNDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN BETWEEN 13Z-15Z/SAT.
THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND
EAST AFTER 20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR
KALB/KGFL/KPSF FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE
CIGS WL REMAIN VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND
KPSF. ONCE AGAIN THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR
-FZRAPL AT KGFL AND KPSF.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12
KTS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE
TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL







000
FXUS61 KALY 220916
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
416 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY TO 5
AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

AS OF 4 AM EST...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE LINGERING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS. THESE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE IN PLACE...AS TEMPS HAVE DIPPED
INTO THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS.

FOR TODAY...SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...ESP FOR AREAS
S AND E OF ALBANY...WHILE SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO
EXPAND BACK ACROSS WESTERN AREAS BY MID MORNING. CLOUDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM W TO E ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.

IN ADDITION...A PAIR OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES...ONE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED DYNAMICAL LIFT AS WELL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY
NORTH TOWARD AND AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH COULD REACH FAR WESTERN
AREAS AS EARLY AS 3 OR 4 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE
GROUND WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR
LIGHT ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK SOUTH
WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM
ALBANY SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
ICE PELLETS OF LIQUID...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N AND W OF ALBANY...SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL.
AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES COULD BECOME
RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND MESONET SFC
OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR EVEN
OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1
AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z
SUNDAY. THE SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN BETWEEN 10-15Z/SAT. THERE COULD BE SOME
SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND EAST AFTER
20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF
FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE CIGS WL REMAIN
VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND KPSF. ONCE AGAIN
THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR -FZRAPL AT KGFL.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 4-10 KTS EARLY THIS
EVENING..AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 KTS
OR LESS AFTER 05Z/SAT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 220916
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
416 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY TO 5
AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

AS OF 4 AM EST...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE LINGERING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS. THESE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE IN PLACE...AS TEMPS HAVE DIPPED
INTO THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS.

FOR TODAY...SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...ESP FOR AREAS
S AND E OF ALBANY...WHILE SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO
EXPAND BACK ACROSS WESTERN AREAS BY MID MORNING. CLOUDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM W TO E ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.

IN ADDITION...A PAIR OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES...ONE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED DYNAMICAL LIFT AS WELL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY
NORTH TOWARD AND AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH COULD REACH FAR WESTERN
AREAS AS EARLY AS 3 OR 4 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE
GROUND WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR
LIGHT ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK SOUTH
WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM
ALBANY SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
ICE PELLETS OF LIQUID...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N AND W OF ALBANY...SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL.
AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES COULD BECOME
RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND MESONET SFC
OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR EVEN
OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1
AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z
SUNDAY. THE SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN BETWEEN 10-15Z/SAT. THERE COULD BE SOME
SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND EAST AFTER
20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF
FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE CIGS WL REMAIN
VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND KPSF. ONCE AGAIN
THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR -FZRAPL AT KGFL.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 4-10 KTS EARLY THIS
EVENING..AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 KTS
OR LESS AFTER 05Z/SAT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 220916
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
416 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY TO 5
AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

AS OF 4 AM EST...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE LINGERING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS. THESE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE IN PLACE...AS TEMPS HAVE DIPPED
INTO THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS.

FOR TODAY...SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...ESP FOR AREAS
S AND E OF ALBANY...WHILE SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO
EXPAND BACK ACROSS WESTERN AREAS BY MID MORNING. CLOUDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM W TO E ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.

IN ADDITION...A PAIR OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES...ONE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED DYNAMICAL LIFT AS WELL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY
NORTH TOWARD AND AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH COULD REACH FAR WESTERN
AREAS AS EARLY AS 3 OR 4 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE
GROUND WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR
LIGHT ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK SOUTH
WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM
ALBANY SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
ICE PELLETS OF LIQUID...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N AND W OF ALBANY...SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL.
AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES COULD BECOME
RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND MESONET SFC
OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR EVEN
OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1
AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z
SUNDAY. THE SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN BETWEEN 10-15Z/SAT. THERE COULD BE SOME
SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND EAST AFTER
20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF
FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE CIGS WL REMAIN
VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND KPSF. ONCE AGAIN
THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR -FZRAPL AT KGFL.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 4-10 KTS EARLY THIS
EVENING..AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 KTS
OR LESS AFTER 05Z/SAT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KALY 220916
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
416 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY TO 5
AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

AS OF 4 AM EST...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE LINGERING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS. THESE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE IN PLACE...AS TEMPS HAVE DIPPED
INTO THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS.

FOR TODAY...SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...ESP FOR AREAS
S AND E OF ALBANY...WHILE SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO
EXPAND BACK ACROSS WESTERN AREAS BY MID MORNING. CLOUDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM W TO E ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.

IN ADDITION...A PAIR OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES...ONE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED DYNAMICAL LIFT AS WELL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY
NORTH TOWARD AND AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH COULD REACH FAR WESTERN
AREAS AS EARLY AS 3 OR 4 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE
GROUND WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR
LIGHT ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK SOUTH
WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM
ALBANY SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
ICE PELLETS OF LIQUID...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N AND W OF ALBANY...SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL.
AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES COULD BECOME
RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND MESONET SFC
OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR EVEN
OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1
AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT.
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z
SUNDAY. THE SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN BETWEEN 10-15Z/SAT. THERE COULD BE SOME
SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND EAST AFTER
20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF
FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE CIGS WL REMAIN
VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND KPSF. ONCE AGAIN
THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR -FZRAPL AT KGFL.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 4-10 KTS EARLY THIS
EVENING..AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 KTS
OR LESS AFTER 05Z/SAT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL








000
FXUS61 KBTV 220907
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
407 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MORE
RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SATURDAY...PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE ENDING
THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST FLOW
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH
WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY.
AS A RESULT, A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
ADIRONDACKS WILL BE THE FIRST AREAS TO SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET
AND POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG 850MB JET AROUND 40-50 KTS WHICH WILL
HELP HASTEN THE ARRIVAL OF WARM AIR. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BEFORE 00Z/SUNDAY...WHILE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET OR RAIN WILL BE MORE PREVALENT IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND INTO VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG S/SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MOST OF NRN NY TO TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z..WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SLEEP AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE SLEET AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN AS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL HINDER SCOURING OUT THE
COLDER AIR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY 06Z/SUNDAY, WARMER
AIR AND THEREFORE RAIN HAVE TAKEN OVER NRN NY, THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL INFILTRATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINTRY MIX THE LONGEST WILL BE THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COME 1Z SUNDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN VERMONT...ALLOWING FOR A DRYING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THIS POINT. ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WILL LIMITED TO A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE
ACCRETION, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCRETION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. ONLY EXPECTING MOST
AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN TO SEE A TRACE, WITH MELTING
OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS PART OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH
WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE. EXPECT 0.25-
0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN FOR AN OPEN
WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY THANKSGIVING. ECMWF
INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT SHARPENS UP THE LONGWAVE500
MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD AROUND
06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY FORECAST
FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER 500 MB
TROUGH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL DAY
BEFORE THANKSGIVING, IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW...GFS
AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN
CONDITIONS AT KSLK/KMPV DETERIORATE IN THE LAST FEW HOURS TO MVFR
CIGS. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND
SATELLITE SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW VFR CIGS AT 035-045 IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS SLOWLY ERODING. MEANWHILE MID
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO MOVING EAST AND WILL IMPACT FORECAST
AREA THROUGH 12Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS
STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE
COMMON, AND AIRCRAFT WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS
ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN LATE IN
THE PERIOD BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS
PREVIOUS FORECAST. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A MIX, IP/SN WITH SOME -RA
MIXED IN.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON... WINDS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
PEAKING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS STARTING AROUND NOON AND LASTING
INTO THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET,
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS
AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...



000
FXUS61 KBTV 220907
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
407 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC
TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL SEE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRING GUSTY WINDS AND MORE
RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SATURDAY...PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE ENDING
THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST FLOW
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH
WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY.
AS A RESULT, A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
ADIRONDACKS WILL BE THE FIRST AREAS TO SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET
AND POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG 850MB JET AROUND 40-50 KTS WHICH WILL
HELP HASTEN THE ARRIVAL OF WARM AIR. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BEFORE 00Z/SUNDAY...WHILE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET OR RAIN WILL BE MORE PREVALENT IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND INTO VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SATURDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG S/SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MOST OF NRN NY TO TRANSITION TO RAIN SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z..WITH EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO CONTINUE TO SEE
SLEEP AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN. WHILE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, MOST OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE SLEET AND POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN AS THE COMPLEX TERRAIN WILL HINDER SCOURING OUT THE
COLDER AIR. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BY 06Z/SUNDAY, WARMER
AIR AND THEREFORE RAIN HAVE TAKEN OVER NRN NY, THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND WILL INFILTRATING CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINTRY MIX THE LONGEST WILL BE THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND EASTWARD, WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

COME 1Z SUNDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN VERMONT...ALLOWING FOR A DRYING
TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AT THIS POINT. ANY SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION WILL LIMITED TO A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE
ACCRETION, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCRETION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. ONLY EXPECTING MOST
AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN TO SEE A TRACE, WITH MELTING
OCCURRING SUNDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. AS PART OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH
WITH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN TONIGHTS DISTURBANCE. EXPECT 0.25-
0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING. EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN FOR AN OPEN
WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY THANKSGIVING. ECMWF
INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT SHARPENS UP THE LONGWAVE500
MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD AROUND
06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY FORECAST
FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER 500 MB
TROUGH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL DAY
BEFORE THANKSGIVING, IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW...GFS
AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN
CONDITIONS AT KSLK/KMPV DETERIORATE IN THE LAST FEW HOURS TO MVFR
CIGS. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND
SATELLITE SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW VFR CIGS AT 035-045 IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS SLOWLY ERODING. MEANWHILE MID
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO MOVING EAST AND WILL IMPACT FORECAST
AREA THROUGH 12Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS
STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE
COMMON, AND AIRCRAFT WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS
ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN LATE IN
THE PERIOD BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS
PREVIOUS FORECAST. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A MIX, IP/SN WITH SOME -RA
MIXED IN.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON... WINDS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
PEAKING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS STARTING AROUND NOON AND LASTING
INTO THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET,
RESULTING IN ROUGH CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWARD FACING BAYS
AND INLETS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON
MARINE...




000
FXUS61 KBTV 220822
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
322 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY AND COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY...AND CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1233 AM EST SATURDAY...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING MORE SOUTHWEST AND COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. IT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS...EVEN SOME SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 344 PM EST FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE ARRIVAL OF THE MILDER AIR WILL ALSO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION DURING THIS PERIOD LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO
NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY...AND THOSE THAT DO SHOULD ONLY SEE A TRACE. MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND IT WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING POPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
TEMP PROFILES SUGGESTING IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH LOW
TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN FOR AN OPEN
WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY THANKSGIVING. ECMWF
INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT SHARPENS UP THE ONGWAVE
500 MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD
AROUND 06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY
FORECAST FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER
500 MB TROUGH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL
DAY BEFORE THANKSGIVING, IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR
SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW...GFS
AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN
CONDITIONS AT KSLK/KMPV DETERIORATE IN THE LAST FEW HOURS TO MVFR
CIGS. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND
SATELLITE SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW VFR CIGS AT 035-045 IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS SLOWLY ERODING. MEANWHILE MID
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO MOVING EAST AND WILL IMPACT FORECAST
AREA THROUGH 12Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS
STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE
COMMON, AND AIRCRAFT WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS
ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN LATE IN
THE PERIOD BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS
PREVIOUS FORECAST. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A MIX, IP/SN WITH SOME -RA
MIXED IN.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 220822
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
322 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY AND COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY...AND CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1233 AM EST SATURDAY...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING MORE SOUTHWEST AND COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. IT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS...EVEN SOME SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 344 PM EST FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE ARRIVAL OF THE MILDER AIR WILL ALSO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION DURING THIS PERIOD LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO
NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY...AND THOSE THAT DO SHOULD ONLY SEE A TRACE. MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND IT WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING POPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
TEMP PROFILES SUGGESTING IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH LOW
TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN FOR AN OPEN
WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY THANKSGIVING. ECMWF
INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT SHARPENS UP THE ONGWAVE
500 MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD
AROUND 06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY
FORECAST FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER
500 MB TROUGH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL
DAY BEFORE THANKSGIVING, IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR
SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW...GFS
AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN
CONDITIONS AT KSLK/KMPV DETERIORATE IN THE LAST FEW HOURS TO MVFR
CIGS. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND
SATELLITE SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW VFR CIGS AT 035-045 IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS SLOWLY ERODING. MEANWHILE MID
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO MOVING EAST AND WILL IMPACT FORECAST
AREA THROUGH 12Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS
STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE
COMMON, AND AIRCRAFT WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS
ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN LATE IN
THE PERIOD BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS
PREVIOUS FORECAST. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A MIX, IP/SN WITH SOME -RA
MIXED IN.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 220822
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
322 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY AND COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY...AND CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1233 AM EST SATURDAY...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING MORE SOUTHWEST AND COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. IT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS...EVEN SOME SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 344 PM EST FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE ARRIVAL OF THE MILDER AIR WILL ALSO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION DURING THIS PERIOD LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO
NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY...AND THOSE THAT DO SHOULD ONLY SEE A TRACE. MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND IT WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING POPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
TEMP PROFILES SUGGESTING IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH LOW
TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN FOR AN OPEN
WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY THANKSGIVING. ECMWF
INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT SHARPENS UP THE ONGWAVE
500 MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD
AROUND 06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY
FORECAST FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER
500 MB TROUGH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL
DAY BEFORE THANKSGIVING, IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR
SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW...GFS
AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN
CONDITIONS AT KSLK/KMPV DETERIORATE IN THE LAST FEW HOURS TO MVFR
CIGS. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND
SATELLITE SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW VFR CIGS AT 035-045 IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS SLOWLY ERODING. MEANWHILE MID
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO MOVING EAST AND WILL IMPACT FORECAST
AREA THROUGH 12Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS
STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE
COMMON, AND AIRCRAFT WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS
ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN LATE IN
THE PERIOD BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS
PREVIOUS FORECAST. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A MIX, IP/SN WITH SOME -RA
MIXED IN.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 220822
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
322 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY AND COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY...AND CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1233 AM EST SATURDAY...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING MORE SOUTHWEST AND COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. IT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS...EVEN SOME SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 344 PM EST FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE ARRIVAL OF THE MILDER AIR WILL ALSO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION DURING THIS PERIOD LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO
NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY...AND THOSE THAT DO SHOULD ONLY SEE A TRACE. MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND IT WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING POPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
TEMP PROFILES SUGGESTING IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH LOW
TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OVER
PREVIOUS VERSION AS ECMWF HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER WITH GFS KEEPING LOW FURTHER EAST WITH DRY
FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH. STARTING AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED PERIOD 00-12Z TUESDAY THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN PRECIP AREA MOVED EAST. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. BLENDED SUPERBLEND
POPS THIS PERIOD WITH 3 HOURLY NAM12 POPS TO ADD PRECIP TIMING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THE SHOWERS AND START A COOLING TREND IN TEMPS. COULD BE SOME
SNOW MIXED IN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND CHC POPS SOUTHWEST ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY JUST ON EDGE OF WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.

NOW FOR THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF SOUTHERN STREAM AND FOCUSES MORE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BECOME DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS UP TO NOW HAVE BEEN FOR AN OPEN
WAVE IN 500 MB FLOW WITH PRECIP CONCENTRATED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A DRY THANKSGIVING. ECMWF
INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER AS IT SHARPENS UP THE ONGWAVE
500 MB TROUGH AND HAS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK FOR THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THIS SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW AND MOVES IT ACROSS CAPE COD
AROUND 06Z TUES WHILE GFS KEEPS IT EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AND DRY
FORECAST FOR US. SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO DEVELOP A SHARPER
500 MB TROUGH. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, AND SIGNIFICANCE OF TRAVEL
DAY BEFORE THANKSGIVING, IT IS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR
SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON THIS AND WE MATCH UP WELL.

REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW...GFS
AND ECMWF AGAIN IN AGREEMENT IN PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN
CONDITIONS AT KSLK/KMPV DETERIORATE IN THE LAST FEW HOURS TO MVFR
CIGS. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND
SATELLITE SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW VFR CIGS AT 035-045 IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS SLOWLY ERODING. MEANWHILE MID
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO MOVING EAST AND WILL IMPACT FORECAST
AREA THROUGH 12Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS
STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE
COMMON, AND AIRCRAFT WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS
ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN LATE IN
THE PERIOD BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS
PREVIOUS FORECAST. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A MIX, IP/SN WITH SOME -RA
MIXED IN.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 220543
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1243 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY AND COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY...AND CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1233 AM EST SATURDAY...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING MORE SOUTHWEST AND COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. IT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS...EVEN SOME SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 344 PM EST FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE ARRIVAL OF THE MILDER AIR WILL ALSO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION DURING THIS PERIOD LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO
NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY...AND THOSE THAT DO SHOULD ONLY SEE A TRACE. MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND IT WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING POPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
TEMP PROFILES SUGGESTING IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH LOW
TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
NEXT WEEK BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. SHOWERS
TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C
SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S TO
MAYBE 60F AT KBTV. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION
STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS THE
COLDER SECONDARY COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE THROUGH UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT SO HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE
40S.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN
CONDITIONS AT KSLK/KMPV DETERIORATE IN THE LAST FEW HOURS TO MVFR
CIGS. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND
SATELLITE SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW VFR CIGS AT 035-045 IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS SLOWLY ERODING. MEANWHILE MID
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO MOVING EAST AND WILL IMPACT FORECAST
AREA THROUGH 12Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS
STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE
COMMON, AND AIRCRAFT WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS
ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN LATE IN
THE PERIOD BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS
PREVIOUS FORECAST. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A MIX, IP/SN WITH SOME -RA
MIXED IN.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 220543
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1243 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY AND COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY...AND CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1233 AM EST SATURDAY...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING MORE SOUTHWEST AND COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. IT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS...EVEN SOME SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 344 PM EST FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE ARRIVAL OF THE MILDER AIR WILL ALSO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION DURING THIS PERIOD LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO
NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY...AND THOSE THAT DO SHOULD ONLY SEE A TRACE. MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND IT WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING POPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
TEMP PROFILES SUGGESTING IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH LOW
TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
NEXT WEEK BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. SHOWERS
TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C
SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S TO
MAYBE 60F AT KBTV. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION
STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS THE
COLDER SECONDARY COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE THROUGH UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT SO HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE
40S.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN
CONDITIONS AT KSLK/KMPV DETERIORATE IN THE LAST FEW HOURS TO MVFR
CIGS. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND
SATELLITE SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW VFR CIGS AT 035-045 IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS SLOWLY ERODING. MEANWHILE MID
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO MOVING EAST AND WILL IMPACT FORECAST
AREA THROUGH 12Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS
STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE
COMMON, AND AIRCRAFT WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS
ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN LATE IN
THE PERIOD BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS
PREVIOUS FORECAST. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A MIX, IP/SN WITH SOME -RA
MIXED IN.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 220543
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1243 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY AND COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY...AND CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1233 AM EST SATURDAY...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING MORE SOUTHWEST AND COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. IT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS...EVEN SOME SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 344 PM EST FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE ARRIVAL OF THE MILDER AIR WILL ALSO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION DURING THIS PERIOD LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO
NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY...AND THOSE THAT DO SHOULD ONLY SEE A TRACE. MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND IT WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING POPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
TEMP PROFILES SUGGESTING IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH LOW
TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
NEXT WEEK BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. SHOWERS
TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C
SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S TO
MAYBE 60F AT KBTV. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION
STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS THE
COLDER SECONDARY COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE THROUGH UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT SO HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE
40S.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN
CONDITIONS AT KSLK/KMPV DETERIORATE IN THE LAST FEW HOURS TO MVFR
CIGS. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND
SATELLITE SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW VFR CIGS AT 035-045 IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS SLOWLY ERODING. MEANWHILE MID
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO MOVING EAST AND WILL IMPACT FORECAST
AREA THROUGH 12Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS
STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE
COMMON, AND AIRCRAFT WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS
ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN LATE IN
THE PERIOD BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS
PREVIOUS FORECAST. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A MIX, IP/SN WITH SOME -RA
MIXED IN.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 220543
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1243 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY AND COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY...AND CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1233 AM EST SATURDAY...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING MORE SOUTHWEST AND COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. IT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS...EVEN SOME SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 344 PM EST FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE ARRIVAL OF THE MILDER AIR WILL ALSO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION DURING THIS PERIOD LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO
NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY...AND THOSE THAT DO SHOULD ONLY SEE A TRACE. MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND IT WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING POPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
TEMP PROFILES SUGGESTING IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH LOW
TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
NEXT WEEK BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. SHOWERS
TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C
SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S TO
MAYBE 60F AT KBTV. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION
STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS THE
COLDER SECONDARY COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE THROUGH UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT SO HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE
40S.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN
CONDITIONS AT KSLK/KMPV DETERIORATE IN THE LAST FEW HOURS TO MVFR
CIGS. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION AND
SATELLITE SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW VFR CIGS AT 035-045 IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS SLOWLY ERODING. MEANWHILE MID
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO MOVING EAST AND WILL IMPACT FORECAST
AREA THROUGH 12Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE AS
STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN. GUSTS TO 25KTS WILL BE
COMMON, AND AIRCRAFT WILL ENCOUNTER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 40KTS
ABOVE 2000 FT AGL. BATCH OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TO MOVE IN LATE IN
THE PERIOD BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY SO STUCK WITH VCSH AS
PREVIOUS FORECAST. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A MIX, IP/SN WITH SOME -RA
MIXED IN.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

06Z - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...HANSON




000
FXUS61 KALY 220542
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1242 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS WILL END OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE REGION
FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME
RAINFALL AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EST...VERY COLD CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS MOST THE
REGION WITH A SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM THE SOUTH. A BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKING. A FEW OF THESE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE GETTING INTO THE WRN DACKS WITH LIGHT ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO A HALF AN INCH EXPECTED FOR NRN HERKIMER CTY. SOME OF
THE CLOUDS WILL SPILL INTO THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SW VT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR THEREAFTER WITH
LOWS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA IN THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE NRN TIER /SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS AND LAKE GEORGE
REGION/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A COLD AND DRY START...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE
WEST FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. OUR REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AT 500 HPA...AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL
BE RAPIDLY WARMING THROUGH THE DAY THANKS TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION...AND 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE FREEZING IN
MANY AREAS BY THE AFTN HOURS.

WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY...SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA /NORTH OF I-90/...CLOSER
TO THE LARGE SCALE FORCING. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO START...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A
WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN. IN MANY NORTHERN AREAS...THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP /SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN/...WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO JUST A COLD PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT. FOR SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION...TEMPS ON SAT MAY
RISE JUST ABOVE FREEZING...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE FOR
SAT NIGHT...AND PRECIP MAY WIND UP ONLY BEING IN THE FORM OF A
PLAIN COLD RAIN. ALL MEMBERS OF THE 15Z SREF SUGGEST THIS EVENT
WILL BE LIQUID FOR ALBANY...AND EVEN THE 12Z GEFS SHOW A LIMITED
WINDOW FOR MIXED PRECIP AT ALBANY AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING MIXED PRECIP WILL BE FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...SRN VT...TACONICS AND THE BERKSHIRES. EVEN IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN...LIGHT QPF WILL PREVENT ICE ACCRETION FROM BEING
MORE THAN JUST A COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH...WITH JUST A
COATING OF SNOW/SLEET POSSIBLE FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS AS WELL.

TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MANY AREAS ON
SATURDAY. ON SAT NIGHT...TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME OUT OF THE
S-SW AND BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO END BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AS A LINGERING
BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWER AROUND DUE TO THE SFC BOUNDARY NEARBY...BUT MOST AREAS
LOOK TO STAY DRY ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING LATE IN THE
DAY...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A MUCH STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS STORM WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A WIDESPREAD STEADY RAINFALL WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...AND PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN
EVERYWHERE DUE TO WARM TEMPS ALOFT. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES C EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY. A SOLID HALF INCH OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR THE WHOLE REGION...AS 850 HPA SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
50 KTS OR MORE TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEPT TEMPS MILD FOR SUN NIGHT...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S. RAINFALL SHOULD BE ENDING ON MONDAY MORNING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH.  BEHIND THE RAINFALL...THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING
FOR LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY...AS OUR REGION BECOMES FULLY IN THE
STORM/S WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE MID
50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN UNITED NEXT WEEK WITH NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES. IN THE
MEANWHILE THERE WILL BE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL
DAMPEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AS A TROUGH HEADS FOR THE WEST COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK
ESPECIALLY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE UNCERTAINTIES WILL ORIGINATE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHERE THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IS MODEL
GUIDANCE.

WE START OUT WITH SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION AS LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
BECOME FAVORABLE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW FOR LAKE EFFECT TO OCCUR
INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SHORT WAVE ROTATING
ABOUT BASE OF THE DEEP TROUGH OVER NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO HEAD NORTHEASTWARD
REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST THAN THE GFS AND BRINGS ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEP ITS PRECIPITATION
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH. HAVE RUN WITH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MY FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
NEAR NORMAL WHICH MEANS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY FOR SOME
AREAS.

THERE IS MUCH GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO
THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS
WILL HAVE BIG IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AND WHERE AND WHEN A
LOW FORMS AND HOW STRONG IT MAY GET. INDICATIONS ARE A LOW SHOULD
FORM SOMEWHERE OFF THE SOUTHEAST TO MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. HAVE RUN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/CLIMATOLOGICALLY FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SINCE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS SO HIGH.

AS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE WEATHER
SHOULD BE FAIR AS WE ARE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

OVERALL GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z
SUNDAY. THE SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN BETWEEN 10-15Z/SAT. THERE COULD BE SOME
SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND EAST AFTER
20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF
FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE CIGS WL REMAIN
VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND KPSF. ONCE AGAIN
THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR -FZRAPL AT KGFL.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 4-10 KTS EARLY THIS
EVENING..AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 KTS
OR LESS AFTER 05Z/SAT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THERE WILL BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER FAR
WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL
IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 220542
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1242 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS WILL END OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE REGION
FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME
RAINFALL AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EST...VERY COLD CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS MOST THE
REGION WITH A SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM THE SOUTH. A BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKING. A FEW OF THESE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE GETTING INTO THE WRN DACKS WITH LIGHT ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO A HALF AN INCH EXPECTED FOR NRN HERKIMER CTY. SOME OF
THE CLOUDS WILL SPILL INTO THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SW VT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR THEREAFTER WITH
LOWS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA IN THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE NRN TIER /SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS AND LAKE GEORGE
REGION/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A COLD AND DRY START...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE
WEST FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. OUR REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AT 500 HPA...AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL
BE RAPIDLY WARMING THROUGH THE DAY THANKS TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION...AND 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE FREEZING IN
MANY AREAS BY THE AFTN HOURS.

WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY...SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA /NORTH OF I-90/...CLOSER
TO THE LARGE SCALE FORCING. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO START...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A
WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN. IN MANY NORTHERN AREAS...THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP /SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN/...WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO JUST A COLD PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT. FOR SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION...TEMPS ON SAT MAY
RISE JUST ABOVE FREEZING...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE FOR
SAT NIGHT...AND PRECIP MAY WIND UP ONLY BEING IN THE FORM OF A
PLAIN COLD RAIN. ALL MEMBERS OF THE 15Z SREF SUGGEST THIS EVENT
WILL BE LIQUID FOR ALBANY...AND EVEN THE 12Z GEFS SHOW A LIMITED
WINDOW FOR MIXED PRECIP AT ALBANY AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING MIXED PRECIP WILL BE FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...SRN VT...TACONICS AND THE BERKSHIRES. EVEN IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN...LIGHT QPF WILL PREVENT ICE ACCRETION FROM BEING
MORE THAN JUST A COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH...WITH JUST A
COATING OF SNOW/SLEET POSSIBLE FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS AS WELL.

TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MANY AREAS ON
SATURDAY. ON SAT NIGHT...TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME OUT OF THE
S-SW AND BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO END BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AS A LINGERING
BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWER AROUND DUE TO THE SFC BOUNDARY NEARBY...BUT MOST AREAS
LOOK TO STAY DRY ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING LATE IN THE
DAY...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A MUCH STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS STORM WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A WIDESPREAD STEADY RAINFALL WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...AND PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN
EVERYWHERE DUE TO WARM TEMPS ALOFT. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES C EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY. A SOLID HALF INCH OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR THE WHOLE REGION...AS 850 HPA SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
50 KTS OR MORE TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEPT TEMPS MILD FOR SUN NIGHT...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S. RAINFALL SHOULD BE ENDING ON MONDAY MORNING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH.  BEHIND THE RAINFALL...THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING
FOR LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY...AS OUR REGION BECOMES FULLY IN THE
STORM/S WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE MID
50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN UNITED NEXT WEEK WITH NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES. IN THE
MEANWHILE THERE WILL BE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL
DAMPEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AS A TROUGH HEADS FOR THE WEST COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK
ESPECIALLY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE UNCERTAINTIES WILL ORIGINATE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHERE THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IS MODEL
GUIDANCE.

WE START OUT WITH SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION AS LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
BECOME FAVORABLE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW FOR LAKE EFFECT TO OCCUR
INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SHORT WAVE ROTATING
ABOUT BASE OF THE DEEP TROUGH OVER NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO HEAD NORTHEASTWARD
REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST THAN THE GFS AND BRINGS ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEP ITS PRECIPITATION
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH. HAVE RUN WITH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MY FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
NEAR NORMAL WHICH MEANS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY FOR SOME
AREAS.

THERE IS MUCH GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO
THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS
WILL HAVE BIG IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AND WHERE AND WHEN A
LOW FORMS AND HOW STRONG IT MAY GET. INDICATIONS ARE A LOW SHOULD
FORM SOMEWHERE OFF THE SOUTHEAST TO MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. HAVE RUN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/CLIMATOLOGICALLY FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SINCE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS SO HIGH.

AS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE WEATHER
SHOULD BE FAIR AS WE ARE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

OVERALL GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z
SUNDAY. THE SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN BETWEEN 10-15Z/SAT. THERE COULD BE SOME
SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND EAST AFTER
20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF
FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE CIGS WL REMAIN
VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND KPSF. ONCE AGAIN
THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR -FZRAPL AT KGFL.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 4-10 KTS EARLY THIS
EVENING..AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 KTS
OR LESS AFTER 05Z/SAT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THERE WILL BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER FAR
WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL
IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 220542
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1242 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS WILL END OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE REGION
FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME
RAINFALL AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EST...VERY COLD CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS MOST THE
REGION WITH A SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM THE SOUTH. A BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKING. A FEW OF THESE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE GETTING INTO THE WRN DACKS WITH LIGHT ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO A HALF AN INCH EXPECTED FOR NRN HERKIMER CTY. SOME OF
THE CLOUDS WILL SPILL INTO THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SW VT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR THEREAFTER WITH
LOWS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA IN THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE NRN TIER /SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS AND LAKE GEORGE
REGION/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A COLD AND DRY START...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE
WEST FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. OUR REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AT 500 HPA...AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL
BE RAPIDLY WARMING THROUGH THE DAY THANKS TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION...AND 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE FREEZING IN
MANY AREAS BY THE AFTN HOURS.

WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY...SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA /NORTH OF I-90/...CLOSER
TO THE LARGE SCALE FORCING. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO START...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A
WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN. IN MANY NORTHERN AREAS...THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP /SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN/...WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO JUST A COLD PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT. FOR SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION...TEMPS ON SAT MAY
RISE JUST ABOVE FREEZING...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE FOR
SAT NIGHT...AND PRECIP MAY WIND UP ONLY BEING IN THE FORM OF A
PLAIN COLD RAIN. ALL MEMBERS OF THE 15Z SREF SUGGEST THIS EVENT
WILL BE LIQUID FOR ALBANY...AND EVEN THE 12Z GEFS SHOW A LIMITED
WINDOW FOR MIXED PRECIP AT ALBANY AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING MIXED PRECIP WILL BE FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...SRN VT...TACONICS AND THE BERKSHIRES. EVEN IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN...LIGHT QPF WILL PREVENT ICE ACCRETION FROM BEING
MORE THAN JUST A COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH...WITH JUST A
COATING OF SNOW/SLEET POSSIBLE FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS AS WELL.

TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MANY AREAS ON
SATURDAY. ON SAT NIGHT...TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME OUT OF THE
S-SW AND BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO END BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AS A LINGERING
BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWER AROUND DUE TO THE SFC BOUNDARY NEARBY...BUT MOST AREAS
LOOK TO STAY DRY ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING LATE IN THE
DAY...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A MUCH STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS STORM WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A WIDESPREAD STEADY RAINFALL WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...AND PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN
EVERYWHERE DUE TO WARM TEMPS ALOFT. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES C EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY. A SOLID HALF INCH OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR THE WHOLE REGION...AS 850 HPA SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
50 KTS OR MORE TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEPT TEMPS MILD FOR SUN NIGHT...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S. RAINFALL SHOULD BE ENDING ON MONDAY MORNING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH.  BEHIND THE RAINFALL...THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING
FOR LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY...AS OUR REGION BECOMES FULLY IN THE
STORM/S WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE MID
50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN UNITED NEXT WEEK WITH NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES. IN THE
MEANWHILE THERE WILL BE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL
DAMPEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AS A TROUGH HEADS FOR THE WEST COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK
ESPECIALLY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE UNCERTAINTIES WILL ORIGINATE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHERE THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IS MODEL
GUIDANCE.

WE START OUT WITH SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION AS LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
BECOME FAVORABLE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW FOR LAKE EFFECT TO OCCUR
INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SHORT WAVE ROTATING
ABOUT BASE OF THE DEEP TROUGH OVER NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO HEAD NORTHEASTWARD
REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST THAN THE GFS AND BRINGS ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEP ITS PRECIPITATION
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH. HAVE RUN WITH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MY FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
NEAR NORMAL WHICH MEANS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY FOR SOME
AREAS.

THERE IS MUCH GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO
THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS
WILL HAVE BIG IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AND WHERE AND WHEN A
LOW FORMS AND HOW STRONG IT MAY GET. INDICATIONS ARE A LOW SHOULD
FORM SOMEWHERE OFF THE SOUTHEAST TO MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. HAVE RUN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/CLIMATOLOGICALLY FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SINCE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS SO HIGH.

AS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE WEATHER
SHOULD BE FAIR AS WE ARE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

OVERALL GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z
SUNDAY. THE SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN BETWEEN 10-15Z/SAT. THERE COULD BE SOME
SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND EAST AFTER
20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF
FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE CIGS WL REMAIN
VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND KPSF. ONCE AGAIN
THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR -FZRAPL AT KGFL.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 4-10 KTS EARLY THIS
EVENING..AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 KTS
OR LESS AFTER 05Z/SAT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THERE WILL BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER FAR
WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL
IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 220542
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1242 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS WILL END OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE REGION
FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME
RAINFALL AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EST...VERY COLD CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS MOST THE
REGION WITH A SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM THE SOUTH. A BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKING. A FEW OF THESE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE GETTING INTO THE WRN DACKS WITH LIGHT ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO A HALF AN INCH EXPECTED FOR NRN HERKIMER CTY. SOME OF
THE CLOUDS WILL SPILL INTO THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SW VT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR THEREAFTER WITH
LOWS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA IN THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE NRN TIER /SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS AND LAKE GEORGE
REGION/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A COLD AND DRY START...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE
WEST FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. OUR REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AT 500 HPA...AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL
BE RAPIDLY WARMING THROUGH THE DAY THANKS TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION...AND 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE FREEZING IN
MANY AREAS BY THE AFTN HOURS.

WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY...SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA /NORTH OF I-90/...CLOSER
TO THE LARGE SCALE FORCING. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO START...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A
WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN. IN MANY NORTHERN AREAS...THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP /SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN/...WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO JUST A COLD PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT. FOR SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION...TEMPS ON SAT MAY
RISE JUST ABOVE FREEZING...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE FOR
SAT NIGHT...AND PRECIP MAY WIND UP ONLY BEING IN THE FORM OF A
PLAIN COLD RAIN. ALL MEMBERS OF THE 15Z SREF SUGGEST THIS EVENT
WILL BE LIQUID FOR ALBANY...AND EVEN THE 12Z GEFS SHOW A LIMITED
WINDOW FOR MIXED PRECIP AT ALBANY AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING MIXED PRECIP WILL BE FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...SRN VT...TACONICS AND THE BERKSHIRES. EVEN IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN...LIGHT QPF WILL PREVENT ICE ACCRETION FROM BEING
MORE THAN JUST A COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH...WITH JUST A
COATING OF SNOW/SLEET POSSIBLE FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS AS WELL.

TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MANY AREAS ON
SATURDAY. ON SAT NIGHT...TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME OUT OF THE
S-SW AND BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO END BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AS A LINGERING
BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWER AROUND DUE TO THE SFC BOUNDARY NEARBY...BUT MOST AREAS
LOOK TO STAY DRY ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING LATE IN THE
DAY...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A MUCH STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS STORM WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A WIDESPREAD STEADY RAINFALL WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...AND PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN
EVERYWHERE DUE TO WARM TEMPS ALOFT. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES C EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY. A SOLID HALF INCH OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR THE WHOLE REGION...AS 850 HPA SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
50 KTS OR MORE TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEPT TEMPS MILD FOR SUN NIGHT...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S. RAINFALL SHOULD BE ENDING ON MONDAY MORNING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH.  BEHIND THE RAINFALL...THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING
FOR LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY...AS OUR REGION BECOMES FULLY IN THE
STORM/S WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE MID
50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN UNITED NEXT WEEK WITH NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES. IN THE
MEANWHILE THERE WILL BE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL
DAMPEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AS A TROUGH HEADS FOR THE WEST COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK
ESPECIALLY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE UNCERTAINTIES WILL ORIGINATE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHERE THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IS MODEL
GUIDANCE.

WE START OUT WITH SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION AS LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
BECOME FAVORABLE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW FOR LAKE EFFECT TO OCCUR
INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SHORT WAVE ROTATING
ABOUT BASE OF THE DEEP TROUGH OVER NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO HEAD NORTHEASTWARD
REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST THAN THE GFS AND BRINGS ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEP ITS PRECIPITATION
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH. HAVE RUN WITH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MY FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
NEAR NORMAL WHICH MEANS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY FOR SOME
AREAS.

THERE IS MUCH GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO
THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS
WILL HAVE BIG IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AND WHERE AND WHEN A
LOW FORMS AND HOW STRONG IT MAY GET. INDICATIONS ARE A LOW SHOULD
FORM SOMEWHERE OFF THE SOUTHEAST TO MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. HAVE RUN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/CLIMATOLOGICALLY FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SINCE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS SO HIGH.

AS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE WEATHER
SHOULD BE FAIR AS WE ARE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

OVERALL GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z
SUNDAY. THE SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN BETWEEN 10-15Z/SAT. THERE COULD BE SOME
SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND EAST AFTER
20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF
FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE CIGS WL REMAIN
VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND KPSF. ONCE AGAIN
THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR -FZRAPL AT KGFL.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 4-10 KTS EARLY THIS
EVENING..AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 KTS
OR LESS AFTER 05Z/SAT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THERE WILL BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER FAR
WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL
IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 220533
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1233 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY AND COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY...AND CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1233 AM EST SATURDAY...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING MORE SOUTHWEST AND COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. IT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS...EVEN SOME SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 344 PM EST FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE ARRIVAL OF THE MILDER AIR WILL ALSO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION DURING THIS PERIOD LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO
NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY...AND THOSE THAT DO SHOULD ONLY SEE A TRACE. MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND IT WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING POPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
TEMP PROFILES SUGGESTING IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH LOW
TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
NEXT WEEK BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. SHOWERS
TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C
SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S TO
MAYBE 60F AT KBTV. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION
STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS THE
COLDER SECONDARY COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE THROUGH UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT SO HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE
40S.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR TO PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS
AT SLK AS LAKE-EFFECT BAND DECAYS/PIVOTS NORTHWARD. EXPECT A
GRADUAL LOWER TO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS OVERNIGHT LEAD TO POTENTIAL LLWS AT
MSS...WITH MIXING PROMOTING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS (18-25 KTS)
AT MOST OF THE TAFS SATURDAY. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPING SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 17-20Z...TENDING
TO BE THE MOST PERSISTENT AT SLK AND MSS. TREATED THIS WITH VCSH
FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 220533
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1233 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY AND COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY...AND CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1233 AM EST SATURDAY...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING MORE SOUTHWEST AND COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. IT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS...EVEN SOME SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 344 PM EST FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE ARRIVAL OF THE MILDER AIR WILL ALSO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION DURING THIS PERIOD LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO
NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY...AND THOSE THAT DO SHOULD ONLY SEE A TRACE. MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND IT WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING POPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
TEMP PROFILES SUGGESTING IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH LOW
TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
NEXT WEEK BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. SHOWERS
TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C
SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S TO
MAYBE 60F AT KBTV. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION
STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS THE
COLDER SECONDARY COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE THROUGH UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT SO HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE
40S.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR TO PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS
AT SLK AS LAKE-EFFECT BAND DECAYS/PIVOTS NORTHWARD. EXPECT A
GRADUAL LOWER TO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS OVERNIGHT LEAD TO POTENTIAL LLWS AT
MSS...WITH MIXING PROMOTING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS (18-25 KTS)
AT MOST OF THE TAFS SATURDAY. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPING SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 17-20Z...TENDING
TO BE THE MOST PERSISTENT AT SLK AND MSS. TREATED THIS WITH VCSH
FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 220533
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1233 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY AND COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY...AND CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1233 AM EST SATURDAY...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING MORE SOUTHWEST AND COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. IT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS...EVEN SOME SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 344 PM EST FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE ARRIVAL OF THE MILDER AIR WILL ALSO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION DURING THIS PERIOD LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO
NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY...AND THOSE THAT DO SHOULD ONLY SEE A TRACE. MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND IT WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING POPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
TEMP PROFILES SUGGESTING IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH LOW
TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
NEXT WEEK BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. SHOWERS
TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C
SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S TO
MAYBE 60F AT KBTV. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION
STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS THE
COLDER SECONDARY COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE THROUGH UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT SO HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE
40S.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR TO PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS
AT SLK AS LAKE-EFFECT BAND DECAYS/PIVOTS NORTHWARD. EXPECT A
GRADUAL LOWER TO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS OVERNIGHT LEAD TO POTENTIAL LLWS AT
MSS...WITH MIXING PROMOTING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS (18-25 KTS)
AT MOST OF THE TAFS SATURDAY. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPING SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 17-20Z...TENDING
TO BE THE MOST PERSISTENT AT SLK AND MSS. TREATED THIS WITH VCSH
FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 220533
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1233 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY AND COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY...AND CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1233 AM EST SATURDAY...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING MORE SOUTHWEST AND COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. IT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS...EVEN SOME SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 344 PM EST FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE ARRIVAL OF THE MILDER AIR WILL ALSO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION DURING THIS PERIOD LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO
NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY...AND THOSE THAT DO SHOULD ONLY SEE A TRACE. MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND IT WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING POPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
TEMP PROFILES SUGGESTING IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH LOW
TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
NEXT WEEK BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. SHOWERS
TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C
SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S TO
MAYBE 60F AT KBTV. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION
STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS THE
COLDER SECONDARY COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE THROUGH UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT SO HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE
40S.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR TO PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS
AT SLK AS LAKE-EFFECT BAND DECAYS/PIVOTS NORTHWARD. EXPECT A
GRADUAL LOWER TO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS OVERNIGHT LEAD TO POTENTIAL LLWS AT
MSS...WITH MIXING PROMOTING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS (18-25 KTS)
AT MOST OF THE TAFS SATURDAY. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPING SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 17-20Z...TENDING
TO BE THE MOST PERSISTENT AT SLK AND MSS. TREATED THIS WITH VCSH
FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 220513
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1213 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS WILL END OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE REGION
FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME
RAINFALL AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1025 PM EST...VERY COLD AND QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS MOST THE REGION WITH A SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS
THE TUG HILL PLATEAU WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKING. A FEW OF
THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE GETTING INTO THE WRN DACKS WITH LIGHT
ACCUMS OF A COATING TO A HALF AN INCH EXPECTED FOR NRN HERKIMER
CTY. SOME OF THE CLOUDS WILL SPILL INTO THE LAKE GEORGE REGION FOR
AN HOUR OR SO...BUT THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR THEREAFTER WITH LOWS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA IN THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE NRN TIER /SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A COLD AND DRY START...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE
WEST FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. OUR REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AT 500 HPA...AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL
BE RAPIDLY WARMING THROUGH THE DAY THANKS TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION...AND 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE FREEZING IN
MANY AREAS BY THE AFTN HOURS.

WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY...SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA /NORTH OF I-90/...CLOSER
TO THE LARGE SCALE FORCING. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO START...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A
WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN. IN MANY NORTHERN AREAS...THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP /SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN/...WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO JUST A COLD PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT. FOR SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION...TEMPS ON SAT MAY
RISE JUST ABOVE FREEZING...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE FOR
SAT NIGHT...AND PRECIP MAY WIND UP ONLY BEING IN THE FORM OF A
PLAIN COLD RAIN. ALL MEMBERS OF THE 15Z SREF SUGGEST THIS EVENT
WILL BE LIQUID FOR ALBANY...AND EVEN THE 12Z GEFS SHOW A LIMITED
WINDOW FOR MIXED PRECIP AT ALBANY AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING MIXED PRECIP WILL BE FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...SRN VT...TACONICS AND THE BERKSHIRES. EVEN IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN...LIGHT QPF WILL PREVENT ICE ACCRETION FROM BEING
MORE THAN JUST A COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH...WITH JUST A
COATING OF SNOW/SLEET POSSIBLE FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS AS WELL.

TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MANY AREAS ON
SATURDAY. ON SAT NIGHT...TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME OUT OF THE
S-SW AND BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO END BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AS A LINGERING
BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWER AROUND DUE TO THE SFC BOUNDARY NEARBY...BUT MOST AREAS
LOOK TO STAY DRY ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING LATE IN THE
DAY...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A MUCH STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS STORM WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A WIDESPREAD STEADY RAINFALL WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...AND PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN
EVERYWHERE DUE TO WARM TEMPS ALOFT. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES C EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY. A SOLID HALF INCH OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR THE WHOLE REGION...AS 850 HPA SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
50 KTS OR MORE TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEPT TEMPS MILD FOR SUN NIGHT...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S. RAINFALL SHOULD BE ENDING ON MONDAY MORNING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH.  BEHIND THE RAINFALL...THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING
FOR LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY...AS OUR REGION BECOMES FULLY IN THE
STORM/S WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE MID
50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN UNITED NEXT WEEK WITH NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES. IN THE
MEANWHILE THERE WILL BE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL
DAMPEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AS A TROUGH HEADS FOR THE WEST COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK
ESPECIALLY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE UNCERTAINTIES WILL ORIGINATE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHERE THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IS MODEL
GUIDANCE.

WE START OUT WITH SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION AS LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
BECOME FAVORABLE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW FOR LAKE EFFECT TO OCCUR
INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SHORT WAVE ROTATING
ABOUT BASE OF THE DEEP TROUGH OVER NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO HEAD NORTHEASTWARD
REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST THAN THE GFS AND BRINGS ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEP ITS PRECIPITATION
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH. HAVE RUN WITH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MY FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
NEAR NORMAL WHICH MEANS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY FOR SOME
AREAS.

THERE IS MUCH GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO
THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS
WILL HAVE BIG IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AND WHERE AND WHEN A
LOW FORMS AND HOW STRONG IT MAY GET. INDICATIONS ARE A LOW SHOULD
FORM SOMEWHERE OFF THE SOUTHEAST TO MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. HAVE RUN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/CLIMATOLOGICALLY FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SINCE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS SO HIGH.

AS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE WEATHER
SHOULD BE FAIR AS WE ARE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

OVERALL GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z
SUNDAY. THE SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN BETWEEN 10-15Z/SAT. THERE COULD BE SOME
SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND EAST AFTER
20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF
FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE CIGS WL REMAIN
VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND KPSF. ONCE AGAIN
THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR -FZRAPL AT KGFL.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 4-10 KTS EARLY THIS
EVENING..AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 KTS
OR LESS AFTER 05Z/SAT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THERE WILL BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER FAR
WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL
IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 220513
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1213 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS WILL END OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE REGION
FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME
RAINFALL AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1025 PM EST...VERY COLD AND QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS MOST THE REGION WITH A SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS
THE TUG HILL PLATEAU WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKING. A FEW OF
THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE GETTING INTO THE WRN DACKS WITH LIGHT
ACCUMS OF A COATING TO A HALF AN INCH EXPECTED FOR NRN HERKIMER
CTY. SOME OF THE CLOUDS WILL SPILL INTO THE LAKE GEORGE REGION FOR
AN HOUR OR SO...BUT THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR THEREAFTER WITH LOWS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA IN THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE NRN TIER /SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A COLD AND DRY START...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE
WEST FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. OUR REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AT 500 HPA...AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL
BE RAPIDLY WARMING THROUGH THE DAY THANKS TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION...AND 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE FREEZING IN
MANY AREAS BY THE AFTN HOURS.

WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY...SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA /NORTH OF I-90/...CLOSER
TO THE LARGE SCALE FORCING. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO START...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A
WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN. IN MANY NORTHERN AREAS...THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP /SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN/...WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO JUST A COLD PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT. FOR SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION...TEMPS ON SAT MAY
RISE JUST ABOVE FREEZING...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE FOR
SAT NIGHT...AND PRECIP MAY WIND UP ONLY BEING IN THE FORM OF A
PLAIN COLD RAIN. ALL MEMBERS OF THE 15Z SREF SUGGEST THIS EVENT
WILL BE LIQUID FOR ALBANY...AND EVEN THE 12Z GEFS SHOW A LIMITED
WINDOW FOR MIXED PRECIP AT ALBANY AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING MIXED PRECIP WILL BE FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...SRN VT...TACONICS AND THE BERKSHIRES. EVEN IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN...LIGHT QPF WILL PREVENT ICE ACCRETION FROM BEING
MORE THAN JUST A COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH...WITH JUST A
COATING OF SNOW/SLEET POSSIBLE FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS AS WELL.

TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MANY AREAS ON
SATURDAY. ON SAT NIGHT...TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME OUT OF THE
S-SW AND BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO END BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AS A LINGERING
BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWER AROUND DUE TO THE SFC BOUNDARY NEARBY...BUT MOST AREAS
LOOK TO STAY DRY ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING LATE IN THE
DAY...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A MUCH STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS STORM WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A WIDESPREAD STEADY RAINFALL WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...AND PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN
EVERYWHERE DUE TO WARM TEMPS ALOFT. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES C EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY. A SOLID HALF INCH OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR THE WHOLE REGION...AS 850 HPA SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
50 KTS OR MORE TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEPT TEMPS MILD FOR SUN NIGHT...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S. RAINFALL SHOULD BE ENDING ON MONDAY MORNING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH.  BEHIND THE RAINFALL...THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING
FOR LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY...AS OUR REGION BECOMES FULLY IN THE
STORM/S WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE MID
50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN UNITED NEXT WEEK WITH NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES. IN THE
MEANWHILE THERE WILL BE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL
DAMPEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AS A TROUGH HEADS FOR THE WEST COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK
ESPECIALLY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE UNCERTAINTIES WILL ORIGINATE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHERE THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IS MODEL
GUIDANCE.

WE START OUT WITH SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION AS LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
BECOME FAVORABLE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW FOR LAKE EFFECT TO OCCUR
INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SHORT WAVE ROTATING
ABOUT BASE OF THE DEEP TROUGH OVER NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO HEAD NORTHEASTWARD
REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST THAN THE GFS AND BRINGS ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEP ITS PRECIPITATION
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH. HAVE RUN WITH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MY FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
NEAR NORMAL WHICH MEANS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY FOR SOME
AREAS.

THERE IS MUCH GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO
THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS
WILL HAVE BIG IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AND WHERE AND WHEN A
LOW FORMS AND HOW STRONG IT MAY GET. INDICATIONS ARE A LOW SHOULD
FORM SOMEWHERE OFF THE SOUTHEAST TO MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. HAVE RUN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/CLIMATOLOGICALLY FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SINCE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS SO HIGH.

AS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE WEATHER
SHOULD BE FAIR AS WE ARE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

OVERALL GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z
SUNDAY. THE SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN BETWEEN 10-15Z/SAT. THERE COULD BE SOME
SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND EAST AFTER
20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF
FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE CIGS WL REMAIN
VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND KPSF. ONCE AGAIN
THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR -FZRAPL AT KGFL.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 4-10 KTS EARLY THIS
EVENING..AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 KTS
OR LESS AFTER 05Z/SAT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THERE WILL BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER FAR
WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL
IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 220326
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1026 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS WILL END OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE REGION
FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME
RAINFALL AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1025 PM EST...VERY COLD AND QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS MOST THE REGION WITH A SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS
THE TUG HILL PLATEAU WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKING. A FEW OF
THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE GETTING INTO THE WRN DACKS WITH LIGHT
ACCUMS OF A COATING TO A HALF AN INCH EXPECTED FOR NRN HERKIMER
CTY. SOME OF THE CLOUDS WILL SPILL INTO THE LAKE GEORGE REGION FOR
AN HOUR OR SO...BUT THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR THEREAFTER WITH LOWS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA IN THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE NRN TIER /SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A COLD AND DRY START...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE
WEST FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. OUR REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AT 500 HPA...AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL
BE RAPIDLY WARMING THROUGH THE DAY THANKS TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION...AND 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE FREEZING IN
MANY AREAS BY THE AFTN HOURS.

WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY...SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA /NORTH OF I-90/...CLOSER
TO THE LARGE SCALE FORCING. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO START...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A
WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN. IN MANY NORTHERN AREAS...THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP /SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN/...WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO JUST A COLD PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT. FOR SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION...TEMPS ON SAT MAY
RISE JUST ABOVE FREEZING...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE FOR
SAT NIGHT...AND PRECIP MAY WIND UP ONLY BEING IN THE FORM OF A
PLAIN COLD RAIN. ALL MEMBERS OF THE 15Z SREF SUGGEST THIS EVENT
WILL BE LIQUID FOR ALBANY...AND EVEN THE 12Z GEFS SHOW A LIMITED
WINDOW FOR MIXED PRECIP AT ALBANY AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING MIXED PRECIP WILL BE FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...SRN VT...TACONICS AND THE BERKSHIRES. EVEN IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN...LIGHT QPF WILL PREVENT ICE ACCRETION FROM BEING
MORE THAN JUST A COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH...WITH JUST A
COATING OF SNOW/SLEET POSSIBLE FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS AS WELL.

TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MANY AREAS ON
SATURDAY. ON SAT NIGHT...TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME OUT OF THE
S-SW AND BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO END BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AS A LINGERING
BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWER AROUND DUE TO THE SFC BOUNDARY NEARBY...BUT MOST AREAS
LOOK TO STAY DRY ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING LATE IN THE
DAY...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A MUCH STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS STORM WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A WIDESPREAD STEADY RAINFALL WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...AND PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN
EVERYWHERE DUE TO WARM TEMPS ALOFT. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES C EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY. A SOLID HALF INCH OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR THE WHOLE REGION...AS 850 HPA SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
50 KTS OR MORE TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEPT TEMPS MILD FOR SUN NIGHT...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S. RAINFALL SHOULD BE ENDING ON MONDAY MORNING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH.  BEHIND THE RAINFALL...THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING
FOR LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY...AS OUR REGION BECOMES FULLY IN THE
STORM/S WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE MID
50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN UNITED NEXT WEEK WITH NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES. IN THE
MEANWHILE THERE WILL BE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL
DAMPEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AS A TROUGH HEADS FOR THE WEST COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK
ESPECIALLY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE UNCERTAINTIES WILL ORIGINATE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHERE THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IS MODEL
GUIDANCE.

WE START OUT WITH SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION AS LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
BECOME FAVORABLE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW FOR LAKE EFFECT TO OCCUR
INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SHORT WAVE ROTATING
ABOUT BASE OF THE DEEP TROUGH OVER NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO HEAD NORTHEASTWARD
REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST THAN THE GFS AND BRINGS ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEP ITS PRECIPITATION
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH. HAVE RUN WITH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MY FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
NEAR NORMAL WHICH MEANS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY FOR SOME
AREAS.

THERE IS MUCH GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO
THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS
WILL HAVE BIG IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AND WHERE AND WHEN A
LOW FORMS AND HOW STRONG IT MAY GET. INDICATIONS ARE A LOW SHOULD
FORM SOMEWHERE OFF THE SOUTHEAST TO MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. HAVE RUN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/CLIMATOLOGICALLY FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SINCE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS SO HIGH.

AS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE WEATHER
SHOULD BE FAIR AS WE ARE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

OVERALL GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT...AND MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THICKENING AND
LOWERING CLOUDS DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT...WITH THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
BETWEEN 10-15Z/SAT. THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
FROM KALB NORTH AND EAST AFTER 20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED
WITH A VCSH FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF FOR NOW.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 4-10 KTS EARLY THIS
EVENING..AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 KTS
OR LESS AFTER 05Z/SAT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KTS AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THERE WILL BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER FAR
WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL
IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 220326
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1026 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS WILL END OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE REGION
FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME
RAINFALL AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1025 PM EST...VERY COLD AND QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS MOST THE REGION WITH A SFC ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS
THE TUG HILL PLATEAU WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKING. A FEW OF
THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE GETTING INTO THE WRN DACKS WITH LIGHT
ACCUMS OF A COATING TO A HALF AN INCH EXPECTED FOR NRN HERKIMER
CTY. SOME OF THE CLOUDS WILL SPILL INTO THE LAKE GEORGE REGION FOR
AN HOUR OR SO...BUT THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR THEREAFTER WITH LOWS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA IN THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE NRN TIER /SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A COLD AND DRY START...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE
WEST FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. OUR REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AT 500 HPA...AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL
BE RAPIDLY WARMING THROUGH THE DAY THANKS TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION...AND 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE FREEZING IN
MANY AREAS BY THE AFTN HOURS.

WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY...SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA /NORTH OF I-90/...CLOSER
TO THE LARGE SCALE FORCING. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO START...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A
WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN. IN MANY NORTHERN AREAS...THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP /SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN/...WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO JUST A COLD PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT. FOR SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION...TEMPS ON SAT MAY
RISE JUST ABOVE FREEZING...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE FOR
SAT NIGHT...AND PRECIP MAY WIND UP ONLY BEING IN THE FORM OF A
PLAIN COLD RAIN. ALL MEMBERS OF THE 15Z SREF SUGGEST THIS EVENT
WILL BE LIQUID FOR ALBANY...AND EVEN THE 12Z GEFS SHOW A LIMITED
WINDOW FOR MIXED PRECIP AT ALBANY AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING MIXED PRECIP WILL BE FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...SRN VT...TACONICS AND THE BERKSHIRES. EVEN IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN...LIGHT QPF WILL PREVENT ICE ACCRETION FROM BEING
MORE THAN JUST A COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH...WITH JUST A
COATING OF SNOW/SLEET POSSIBLE FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS AS WELL.

TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MANY AREAS ON
SATURDAY. ON SAT NIGHT...TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME OUT OF THE
S-SW AND BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO END BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AS A LINGERING
BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWER AROUND DUE TO THE SFC BOUNDARY NEARBY...BUT MOST AREAS
LOOK TO STAY DRY ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING LATE IN THE
DAY...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A MUCH STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS STORM WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A WIDESPREAD STEADY RAINFALL WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...AND PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN
EVERYWHERE DUE TO WARM TEMPS ALOFT. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES C EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY. A SOLID HALF INCH OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR THE WHOLE REGION...AS 850 HPA SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
50 KTS OR MORE TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEPT TEMPS MILD FOR SUN NIGHT...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S. RAINFALL SHOULD BE ENDING ON MONDAY MORNING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH.  BEHIND THE RAINFALL...THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING
FOR LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY...AS OUR REGION BECOMES FULLY IN THE
STORM/S WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE MID
50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN UNITED NEXT WEEK WITH NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES. IN THE
MEANWHILE THERE WILL BE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL
DAMPEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AS A TROUGH HEADS FOR THE WEST COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK
ESPECIALLY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE UNCERTAINTIES WILL ORIGINATE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHERE THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IS MODEL
GUIDANCE.

WE START OUT WITH SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION AS LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
BECOME FAVORABLE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW FOR LAKE EFFECT TO OCCUR
INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SHORT WAVE ROTATING
ABOUT BASE OF THE DEEP TROUGH OVER NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO HEAD NORTHEASTWARD
REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST THAN THE GFS AND BRINGS ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEP ITS PRECIPITATION
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH. HAVE RUN WITH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MY FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
NEAR NORMAL WHICH MEANS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY FOR SOME
AREAS.

THERE IS MUCH GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO
THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS
WILL HAVE BIG IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AND WHERE AND WHEN A
LOW FORMS AND HOW STRONG IT MAY GET. INDICATIONS ARE A LOW SHOULD
FORM SOMEWHERE OFF THE SOUTHEAST TO MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. HAVE RUN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/CLIMATOLOGICALLY FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SINCE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS SO HIGH.

AS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE WEATHER
SHOULD BE FAIR AS WE ARE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

OVERALL GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT...AND MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THICKENING AND
LOWERING CLOUDS DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT...WITH THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
BETWEEN 10-15Z/SAT. THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
FROM KALB NORTH AND EAST AFTER 20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED
WITH A VCSH FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF FOR NOW.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 4-10 KTS EARLY THIS
EVENING..AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 KTS
OR LESS AFTER 05Z/SAT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KTS AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THERE WILL BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER FAR
WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL
IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 220244
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
944 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY AND COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY...AND CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 944 PM EST FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND
ONLY TWEAKS WERE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO REGION
THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED FOR CLEARING SKIES WITH ANY SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COMING TO AN END. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT...LOOK FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...BUT REST
OF FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. IT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS...EVEN SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST
KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 344 PM EST FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE ARRIVAL OF THE MILDER AIR WILL ALSO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION DURING THIS PERIOD LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO
NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY...AND THOSE THAT DO SHOULD ONLY SEE A TRACE. MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND IT WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING POPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
TEMP PROFILES SUGGESTING IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH LOW
TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
NEXT WEEK BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. SHOWERS
TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C
SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S TO
MAYBE 60F AT KBTV. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION
STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS THE
COLDER SECONDARY COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE THROUGH UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT SO HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE
40S.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR TO PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS
AT SLK AS LAKE-EFFECT BAND DECAYS/PIVOTS NORTHWARD. EXPECT A
GRADUAL LOWER TO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS OVERNIGHT LEAD TO POTENTIAL LLWS AT
MSS...WITH MIXING PROMOTING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS (18-25 KTS)
AT MOST OF THE TAFS SATURDAY. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPING SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 17-20Z...TENDING
TO BE THE MOST PERSISTENT AT SLK AND MSS. TREATED THIS WITH VCSH
FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 220244
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
944 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY AND COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY...AND CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 944 PM EST FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND
ONLY TWEAKS WERE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO REGION
THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED FOR CLEARING SKIES WITH ANY SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COMING TO AN END. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT...LOOK FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...BUT REST
OF FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. IT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS...EVEN SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST
KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 344 PM EST FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE ARRIVAL OF THE MILDER AIR WILL ALSO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION DURING THIS PERIOD LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO
NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY...AND THOSE THAT DO SHOULD ONLY SEE A TRACE. MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND IT WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING POPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
TEMP PROFILES SUGGESTING IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH LOW
TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
NEXT WEEK BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. SHOWERS
TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C
SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S TO
MAYBE 60F AT KBTV. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION
STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS THE
COLDER SECONDARY COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE THROUGH UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT SO HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE
40S.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR TO PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS
AT SLK AS LAKE-EFFECT BAND DECAYS/PIVOTS NORTHWARD. EXPECT A
GRADUAL LOWER TO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS OVERNIGHT LEAD TO POTENTIAL LLWS AT
MSS...WITH MIXING PROMOTING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS (18-25 KTS)
AT MOST OF THE TAFS SATURDAY. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPING SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 17-20Z...TENDING
TO BE THE MOST PERSISTENT AT SLK AND MSS. TREATED THIS WITH VCSH
FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 220244
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
944 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY AND COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY...AND CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 944 PM EST FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND
ONLY TWEAKS WERE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO REGION
THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED FOR CLEARING SKIES WITH ANY SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COMING TO AN END. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT...LOOK FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...BUT REST
OF FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. IT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS...EVEN SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST
KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 344 PM EST FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE ARRIVAL OF THE MILDER AIR WILL ALSO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION DURING THIS PERIOD LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO
NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY...AND THOSE THAT DO SHOULD ONLY SEE A TRACE. MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND IT WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING POPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
TEMP PROFILES SUGGESTING IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH LOW
TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
NEXT WEEK BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. SHOWERS
TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C
SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S TO
MAYBE 60F AT KBTV. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION
STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS THE
COLDER SECONDARY COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE THROUGH UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT SO HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE
40S.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR TO PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS
AT SLK AS LAKE-EFFECT BAND DECAYS/PIVOTS NORTHWARD. EXPECT A
GRADUAL LOWER TO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS OVERNIGHT LEAD TO POTENTIAL LLWS AT
MSS...WITH MIXING PROMOTING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS (18-25 KTS)
AT MOST OF THE TAFS SATURDAY. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPING SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 17-20Z...TENDING
TO BE THE MOST PERSISTENT AT SLK AND MSS. TREATED THIS WITH VCSH
FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 220244
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
944 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY AND COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY...AND CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 944 PM EST FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND
ONLY TWEAKS WERE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO REGION
THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED FOR CLEARING SKIES WITH ANY SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COMING TO AN END. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT...LOOK FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...BUT REST
OF FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. IT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS...EVEN SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST
KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 344 PM EST FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE ARRIVAL OF THE MILDER AIR WILL ALSO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION DURING THIS PERIOD LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO
NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY...AND THOSE THAT DO SHOULD ONLY SEE A TRACE. MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND IT WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING POPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
TEMP PROFILES SUGGESTING IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH LOW
TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
NEXT WEEK BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. SHOWERS
TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C
SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S TO
MAYBE 60F AT KBTV. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION
STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS THE
COLDER SECONDARY COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE THROUGH UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT SO HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE
40S.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR TO PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS
AT SLK AS LAKE-EFFECT BAND DECAYS/PIVOTS NORTHWARD. EXPECT A
GRADUAL LOWER TO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS OVERNIGHT LEAD TO POTENTIAL LLWS AT
MSS...WITH MIXING PROMOTING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS (18-25 KTS)
AT MOST OF THE TAFS SATURDAY. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPING SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 17-20Z...TENDING
TO BE THE MOST PERSISTENT AT SLK AND MSS. TREATED THIS WITH VCSH
FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KALY 220001
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
701 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ASIDE FROM A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...A COLD AND DRY NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR TONIGHT.  A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO
THE REGION LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE REGION FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM EST...THIS UPDATE WAS TO REDUCE CLOUD COVER BASED ON
THE SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND LOWER THE POPS OVER THE SRN
DACKS...WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND NRN CATSKILLS...WITH THE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES BARELY GETTING INTO THESE AREAS OFF LAKE ONTARIO.
THE HOURLY T/TD/RH/APPARENT TEMPS WERE REDONE BASED ON THE
HOURLIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS OVER THE AREA. INVERSION HEIGHTS HAVE
LOWERED DOWN TO ABOUT 5000 FEET THANKS TO A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE...WHICH HAS CAUSED ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TO
DWINDLE DOWN TO JUST LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...MAINLY FOR
AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. HIRES MODELS...SUCH AS OUR LOCAL
WRF AND THE 3KM HRRR...SHOW ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY THIS EVENING
TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AND AFFECT JUST THE FAR WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE JUST
A COATING OR LESS...AS ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
CONFINED TO AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE SHORE.

OUTSIDE OF THIS LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY...SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE TEENS
/SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREENS/. THESE LOW
TEMPS ARE IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING IT/S ONLY MID NOVEMBER...AND MOST
OF THE AREA DOES NOT HAVE A DEEP SNOW COVER IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A COLD AND DRY START...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE
WEST FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. OUR REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AT 500 HPA...AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL
BE RAPIDLY WARMING THROUGH THE DAY THANKS TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION...AND 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE FREEZING IN
MANY AREAS BY THE AFTN HOURS.

WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY...SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA /NORTH OF I-90/...CLOSER
TO THE LARGE SCALE FORCING. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO START...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A
WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN. IN MANY NORTHERN AREAS...THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP /SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN/...WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO JUST A COLD PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT. FOR SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION...TEMPS ON SAT MAY
RISE JUST ABOVE FREEZING...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE FOR
SAT NIGHT...AND PRECIP MAY WIND UP ONLY BEING IN THE FORM OF A
PLAIN COLD RAIN. ALL MEMBERS OF THE 15Z SREF SUGGEST THIS EVENT
WILL BE LIQUID FOR ALBANY...AND EVEN THE 12Z GEFS SHOW A LIMITED
WINDOW FOR MIXED PRECIP AT ALBANY AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING MIXED PRECIP WILL BE FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...SRN VT...TACONICS AND THE BERKSHIRES. EVEN IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN...LIGHT QPF WILL PREVENT ICE ACCRETION FROM BEING
MORE THAN JUST A COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH...WITH JUST A
COATING OF SNOW/SLEET POSSIBLE FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS AS WELL.

TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MANY AREAS ON
SATURDAY. ON SAT NIGHT...TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME OUT OF THE
S-SW AND BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO END BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AS A LINGERING
BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWER AROUND DUE TO THE SFC BOUNDARY NEARBY...BUT MOST AREAS
LOOK TO STAY DRY ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING LATE IN THE
DAY...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A MUCH STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS STORM WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A WIDESPREAD STEADY RAINFALL WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...AND PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN
EVERYWHERE DUE TO WARM TEMPS ALOFT. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES C EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY. A SOLID HALF INCH OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR THE WHOLE REGION...AS 850 HPA SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
50 KTS OR MORE TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEPT TEMPS MILD FOR SUN NIGHT...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S. RAINFALL SHOULD BE ENDING ON MONDAY MORNING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH.  BEHIND THE RAINFALL...THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING
FOR LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY...AS OUR REGION BECOMES FULLY IN THE
STORM/S WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE MID
50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN UNITED NEXT WEEK WITH NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES. IN THE
MEANWHILE THERE WILL BE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL
DAMPEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AS A TROUGH HEADS FOR THE WEST COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK
ESPECIALLY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE UNCERTAINTIES WILL ORIGINATE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHERE THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IS MODEL
GUIDANCE.

WE START OUT WITH SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION AS LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
BECOME FAVORABLE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW FOR LAKE EFFECT TO OCCUR
INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SHORT WAVE ROTATING
ABOUT BASE OF THE DEEP TROUGH OVER NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO HEAD NORTHEASTWARD
REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST THAN THE GFS AND BRINGS ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEP ITS PRECIPITATION
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH. HAVE RUN WITH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MY FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
NEAR NORMAL WHICH MEANS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY FOR SOME
AREAS.

THERE IS MUCH GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO
THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS
WILL HAVE BIG IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AND WHERE AND WHEN A
LOW FORMS AND HOW STRONG IT MAY GET. INDICATIONS ARE A LOW SHOULD
FORM SOMEWHERE OFF THE SOUTHEAST TO MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. HAVE RUN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/CLIMATOLOGICALLY FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SINCE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS SO HIGH.

AS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE WEATHER
SHOULD BE FAIR AS WE ARE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

OVERALL GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT...AND MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THICKENING AND
LOWERING CLOUDS DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT...WITH THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
BETWEEN 10-15Z/SAT. THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
FROM KALB NORTH AND EAST AFTER 20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED
WITH A VCSH FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF FOR NOW.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 4-10 KTS EARLY THIS
EVENING..AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 KTS
OR LESS AFTER 05Z/SAT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KTS AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THERE WILL BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER FAR
WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL
IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 220001
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
701 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ASIDE FROM A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...A COLD AND DRY NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR TONIGHT.  A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO
THE REGION LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE REGION FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM EST...THIS UPDATE WAS TO REDUCE CLOUD COVER BASED ON
THE SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND LOWER THE POPS OVER THE SRN
DACKS...WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND NRN CATSKILLS...WITH THE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES BARELY GETTING INTO THESE AREAS OFF LAKE ONTARIO.
THE HOURLY T/TD/RH/APPARENT TEMPS WERE REDONE BASED ON THE
HOURLIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS OVER THE AREA. INVERSION HEIGHTS HAVE
LOWERED DOWN TO ABOUT 5000 FEET THANKS TO A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE...WHICH HAS CAUSED ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TO
DWINDLE DOWN TO JUST LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...MAINLY FOR
AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. HIRES MODELS...SUCH AS OUR LOCAL
WRF AND THE 3KM HRRR...SHOW ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY THIS EVENING
TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AND AFFECT JUST THE FAR WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE JUST
A COATING OR LESS...AS ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
CONFINED TO AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE SHORE.

OUTSIDE OF THIS LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY...SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE TEENS
/SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREENS/. THESE LOW
TEMPS ARE IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING IT/S ONLY MID NOVEMBER...AND MOST
OF THE AREA DOES NOT HAVE A DEEP SNOW COVER IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A COLD AND DRY START...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE
WEST FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. OUR REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AT 500 HPA...AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL
BE RAPIDLY WARMING THROUGH THE DAY THANKS TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION...AND 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE FREEZING IN
MANY AREAS BY THE AFTN HOURS.

WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY...SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA /NORTH OF I-90/...CLOSER
TO THE LARGE SCALE FORCING. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO START...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A
WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN. IN MANY NORTHERN AREAS...THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP /SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN/...WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO JUST A COLD PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT. FOR SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION...TEMPS ON SAT MAY
RISE JUST ABOVE FREEZING...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE FOR
SAT NIGHT...AND PRECIP MAY WIND UP ONLY BEING IN THE FORM OF A
PLAIN COLD RAIN. ALL MEMBERS OF THE 15Z SREF SUGGEST THIS EVENT
WILL BE LIQUID FOR ALBANY...AND EVEN THE 12Z GEFS SHOW A LIMITED
WINDOW FOR MIXED PRECIP AT ALBANY AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING MIXED PRECIP WILL BE FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...SRN VT...TACONICS AND THE BERKSHIRES. EVEN IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN...LIGHT QPF WILL PREVENT ICE ACCRETION FROM BEING
MORE THAN JUST A COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH...WITH JUST A
COATING OF SNOW/SLEET POSSIBLE FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS AS WELL.

TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MANY AREAS ON
SATURDAY. ON SAT NIGHT...TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME OUT OF THE
S-SW AND BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO END BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AS A LINGERING
BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWER AROUND DUE TO THE SFC BOUNDARY NEARBY...BUT MOST AREAS
LOOK TO STAY DRY ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING LATE IN THE
DAY...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A MUCH STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS STORM WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A WIDESPREAD STEADY RAINFALL WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...AND PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN
EVERYWHERE DUE TO WARM TEMPS ALOFT. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES C EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY. A SOLID HALF INCH OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR THE WHOLE REGION...AS 850 HPA SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
50 KTS OR MORE TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEPT TEMPS MILD FOR SUN NIGHT...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S. RAINFALL SHOULD BE ENDING ON MONDAY MORNING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH.  BEHIND THE RAINFALL...THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING
FOR LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY...AS OUR REGION BECOMES FULLY IN THE
STORM/S WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE MID
50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN UNITED NEXT WEEK WITH NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES. IN THE
MEANWHILE THERE WILL BE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL
DAMPEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AS A TROUGH HEADS FOR THE WEST COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK
ESPECIALLY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE UNCERTAINTIES WILL ORIGINATE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHERE THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IS MODEL
GUIDANCE.

WE START OUT WITH SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION AS LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
BECOME FAVORABLE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW FOR LAKE EFFECT TO OCCUR
INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SHORT WAVE ROTATING
ABOUT BASE OF THE DEEP TROUGH OVER NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO HEAD NORTHEASTWARD
REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST THAN THE GFS AND BRINGS ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEP ITS PRECIPITATION
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH. HAVE RUN WITH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MY FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
NEAR NORMAL WHICH MEANS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY FOR SOME
AREAS.

THERE IS MUCH GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO
THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS
WILL HAVE BIG IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AND WHERE AND WHEN A
LOW FORMS AND HOW STRONG IT MAY GET. INDICATIONS ARE A LOW SHOULD
FORM SOMEWHERE OFF THE SOUTHEAST TO MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. HAVE RUN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/CLIMATOLOGICALLY FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SINCE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS SO HIGH.

AS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE WEATHER
SHOULD BE FAIR AS WE ARE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

OVERALL GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT...AND MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THICKENING AND
LOWERING CLOUDS DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT...WITH THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
BETWEEN 10-15Z/SAT. THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
FROM KALB NORTH AND EAST AFTER 20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED
WITH A VCSH FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF FOR NOW.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 4-10 KTS EARLY THIS
EVENING..AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 KTS
OR LESS AFTER 05Z/SAT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KTS AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THERE WILL BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER FAR
WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL
IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 220001
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
701 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ASIDE FROM A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...A COLD AND DRY NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR TONIGHT.  A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO
THE REGION LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE REGION FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM EST...THIS UPDATE WAS TO REDUCE CLOUD COVER BASED ON
THE SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND LOWER THE POPS OVER THE SRN
DACKS...WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND NRN CATSKILLS...WITH THE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES BARELY GETTING INTO THESE AREAS OFF LAKE ONTARIO.
THE HOURLY T/TD/RH/APPARENT TEMPS WERE REDONE BASED ON THE
HOURLIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS OVER THE AREA. INVERSION HEIGHTS HAVE
LOWERED DOWN TO ABOUT 5000 FEET THANKS TO A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE...WHICH HAS CAUSED ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TO
DWINDLE DOWN TO JUST LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...MAINLY FOR
AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. HIRES MODELS...SUCH AS OUR LOCAL
WRF AND THE 3KM HRRR...SHOW ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY THIS EVENING
TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AND AFFECT JUST THE FAR WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE JUST
A COATING OR LESS...AS ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
CONFINED TO AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE SHORE.

OUTSIDE OF THIS LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY...SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE TEENS
/SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREENS/. THESE LOW
TEMPS ARE IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING IT/S ONLY MID NOVEMBER...AND MOST
OF THE AREA DOES NOT HAVE A DEEP SNOW COVER IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A COLD AND DRY START...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE
WEST FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. OUR REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AT 500 HPA...AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL
BE RAPIDLY WARMING THROUGH THE DAY THANKS TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION...AND 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE FREEZING IN
MANY AREAS BY THE AFTN HOURS.

WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY...SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA /NORTH OF I-90/...CLOSER
TO THE LARGE SCALE FORCING. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO START...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A
WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN. IN MANY NORTHERN AREAS...THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP /SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN/...WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO JUST A COLD PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT. FOR SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION...TEMPS ON SAT MAY
RISE JUST ABOVE FREEZING...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE FOR
SAT NIGHT...AND PRECIP MAY WIND UP ONLY BEING IN THE FORM OF A
PLAIN COLD RAIN. ALL MEMBERS OF THE 15Z SREF SUGGEST THIS EVENT
WILL BE LIQUID FOR ALBANY...AND EVEN THE 12Z GEFS SHOW A LIMITED
WINDOW FOR MIXED PRECIP AT ALBANY AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING MIXED PRECIP WILL BE FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...SRN VT...TACONICS AND THE BERKSHIRES. EVEN IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN...LIGHT QPF WILL PREVENT ICE ACCRETION FROM BEING
MORE THAN JUST A COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH...WITH JUST A
COATING OF SNOW/SLEET POSSIBLE FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS AS WELL.

TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MANY AREAS ON
SATURDAY. ON SAT NIGHT...TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME OUT OF THE
S-SW AND BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO END BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AS A LINGERING
BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWER AROUND DUE TO THE SFC BOUNDARY NEARBY...BUT MOST AREAS
LOOK TO STAY DRY ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING LATE IN THE
DAY...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A MUCH STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS STORM WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A WIDESPREAD STEADY RAINFALL WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...AND PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN
EVERYWHERE DUE TO WARM TEMPS ALOFT. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES C EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY. A SOLID HALF INCH OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR THE WHOLE REGION...AS 850 HPA SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
50 KTS OR MORE TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEPT TEMPS MILD FOR SUN NIGHT...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S. RAINFALL SHOULD BE ENDING ON MONDAY MORNING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH.  BEHIND THE RAINFALL...THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING
FOR LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY...AS OUR REGION BECOMES FULLY IN THE
STORM/S WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE MID
50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN UNITED NEXT WEEK WITH NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES. IN THE
MEANWHILE THERE WILL BE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL
DAMPEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AS A TROUGH HEADS FOR THE WEST COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK
ESPECIALLY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE UNCERTAINTIES WILL ORIGINATE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHERE THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IS MODEL
GUIDANCE.

WE START OUT WITH SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION AS LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
BECOME FAVORABLE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW FOR LAKE EFFECT TO OCCUR
INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SHORT WAVE ROTATING
ABOUT BASE OF THE DEEP TROUGH OVER NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO HEAD NORTHEASTWARD
REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST THAN THE GFS AND BRINGS ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEP ITS PRECIPITATION
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH. HAVE RUN WITH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MY FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
NEAR NORMAL WHICH MEANS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY FOR SOME
AREAS.

THERE IS MUCH GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO
THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS
WILL HAVE BIG IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AND WHERE AND WHEN A
LOW FORMS AND HOW STRONG IT MAY GET. INDICATIONS ARE A LOW SHOULD
FORM SOMEWHERE OFF THE SOUTHEAST TO MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. HAVE RUN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/CLIMATOLOGICALLY FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SINCE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS SO HIGH.

AS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE WEATHER
SHOULD BE FAIR AS WE ARE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

OVERALL GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT...AND MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THICKENING AND
LOWERING CLOUDS DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT...WITH THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
BETWEEN 10-15Z/SAT. THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
FROM KALB NORTH AND EAST AFTER 20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED
WITH A VCSH FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF FOR NOW.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 4-10 KTS EARLY THIS
EVENING..AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 KTS
OR LESS AFTER 05Z/SAT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KTS AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THERE WILL BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER FAR
WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL
IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 220001
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
701 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ASIDE FROM A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...A COLD AND DRY NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR TONIGHT.  A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO
THE REGION LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE REGION FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM EST...THIS UPDATE WAS TO REDUCE CLOUD COVER BASED ON
THE SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND LOWER THE POPS OVER THE SRN
DACKS...WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND NRN CATSKILLS...WITH THE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES BARELY GETTING INTO THESE AREAS OFF LAKE ONTARIO.
THE HOURLY T/TD/RH/APPARENT TEMPS WERE REDONE BASED ON THE
HOURLIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS OVER THE AREA. INVERSION HEIGHTS HAVE
LOWERED DOWN TO ABOUT 5000 FEET THANKS TO A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE...WHICH HAS CAUSED ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TO
DWINDLE DOWN TO JUST LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...MAINLY FOR
AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. HIRES MODELS...SUCH AS OUR LOCAL
WRF AND THE 3KM HRRR...SHOW ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY THIS EVENING
TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AND AFFECT JUST THE FAR WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE JUST
A COATING OR LESS...AS ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
CONFINED TO AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE SHORE.

OUTSIDE OF THIS LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY...SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE TEENS
/SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREENS/. THESE LOW
TEMPS ARE IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING IT/S ONLY MID NOVEMBER...AND MOST
OF THE AREA DOES NOT HAVE A DEEP SNOW COVER IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A COLD AND DRY START...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE
WEST FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. OUR REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AT 500 HPA...AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL
BE RAPIDLY WARMING THROUGH THE DAY THANKS TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION...AND 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE FREEZING IN
MANY AREAS BY THE AFTN HOURS.

WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY...SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA /NORTH OF I-90/...CLOSER
TO THE LARGE SCALE FORCING. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO START...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A
WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN. IN MANY NORTHERN AREAS...THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP /SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN/...WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO JUST A COLD PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT. FOR SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION...TEMPS ON SAT MAY
RISE JUST ABOVE FREEZING...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE FOR
SAT NIGHT...AND PRECIP MAY WIND UP ONLY BEING IN THE FORM OF A
PLAIN COLD RAIN. ALL MEMBERS OF THE 15Z SREF SUGGEST THIS EVENT
WILL BE LIQUID FOR ALBANY...AND EVEN THE 12Z GEFS SHOW A LIMITED
WINDOW FOR MIXED PRECIP AT ALBANY AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING MIXED PRECIP WILL BE FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...SRN VT...TACONICS AND THE BERKSHIRES. EVEN IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN...LIGHT QPF WILL PREVENT ICE ACCRETION FROM BEING
MORE THAN JUST A COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH...WITH JUST A
COATING OF SNOW/SLEET POSSIBLE FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS AS WELL.

TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MANY AREAS ON
SATURDAY. ON SAT NIGHT...TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME OUT OF THE
S-SW AND BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO END BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AS A LINGERING
BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWER AROUND DUE TO THE SFC BOUNDARY NEARBY...BUT MOST AREAS
LOOK TO STAY DRY ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING LATE IN THE
DAY...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A MUCH STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS STORM WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A WIDESPREAD STEADY RAINFALL WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...AND PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN
EVERYWHERE DUE TO WARM TEMPS ALOFT. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES C EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY. A SOLID HALF INCH OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR THE WHOLE REGION...AS 850 HPA SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
50 KTS OR MORE TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEPT TEMPS MILD FOR SUN NIGHT...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S. RAINFALL SHOULD BE ENDING ON MONDAY MORNING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH.  BEHIND THE RAINFALL...THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING
FOR LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY...AS OUR REGION BECOMES FULLY IN THE
STORM/S WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE MID
50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN UNITED NEXT WEEK WITH NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES. IN THE
MEANWHILE THERE WILL BE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL
DAMPEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AS A TROUGH HEADS FOR THE WEST COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK
ESPECIALLY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE UNCERTAINTIES WILL ORIGINATE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHERE THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IS MODEL
GUIDANCE.

WE START OUT WITH SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION AS LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
BECOME FAVORABLE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW FOR LAKE EFFECT TO OCCUR
INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SHORT WAVE ROTATING
ABOUT BASE OF THE DEEP TROUGH OVER NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO HEAD NORTHEASTWARD
REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST THAN THE GFS AND BRINGS ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEP ITS PRECIPITATION
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH. HAVE RUN WITH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MY FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
NEAR NORMAL WHICH MEANS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY FOR SOME
AREAS.

THERE IS MUCH GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO
THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS
WILL HAVE BIG IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AND WHERE AND WHEN A
LOW FORMS AND HOW STRONG IT MAY GET. INDICATIONS ARE A LOW SHOULD
FORM SOMEWHERE OFF THE SOUTHEAST TO MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. HAVE RUN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/CLIMATOLOGICALLY FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SINCE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS SO HIGH.

AS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE WEATHER
SHOULD BE FAIR AS WE ARE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

OVERALL GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT...AND MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THICKENING AND
LOWERING CLOUDS DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT...WITH THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
BETWEEN 10-15Z/SAT. THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
FROM KALB NORTH AND EAST AFTER 20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED
WITH A VCSH FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF FOR NOW.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 4-10 KTS EARLY THIS
EVENING..AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 KTS
OR LESS AFTER 05Z/SAT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KTS AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THERE WILL BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER FAR
WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL
IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 212359
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
659 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY AND COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY...AND CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 648 PM EST FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND
NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR
ADVECTING INTO REGION THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED FOR CLEARING
SKIES WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COMING TO AN END. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH
OF THE AREA ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT...LOOK FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY...BUT REST OF FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. IT WILL BE
COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS...EVEN SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 344 PM EST FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE ARRIVAL OF THE MILDER AIR WILL ALSO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION DURING THIS PERIOD LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO
NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY...AND THOSE THAT DO SHOULD ONLY SEE A TRACE. MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND IT WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING POPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
TEMP PROFILES SUGGESTING IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH LOW
TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
NEXT WEEK BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. SHOWERS
TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONALBORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C
SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S TO
MAYBE 60F AT KBTV. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION
STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS THE
COLDER SECONDARY COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE THROUGH UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT SO HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE
40S.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR TO PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS
AT SLK AS LAKE-EFECT BAND DECAYS/PIVOTS NORTHWARD. EXPECT A
GRADUAL LOWER TO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS OVERNIGHT LEAD TO POTENTIAL LLWS AT
MSS...WITH MIXING PROMOTING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS (18-25 KTS)
AT MOST OF THE TAFS SATURDAY. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPING SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 17-20Z...TENDING
TO BE THE MOST PERSISTENT AT SLK AND MSS. TREATED THIS WITH VCSH
FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 212359
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
659 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY AND COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY...AND CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 648 PM EST FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND
NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR
ADVECTING INTO REGION THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED FOR CLEARING
SKIES WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COMING TO AN END. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH
OF THE AREA ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT...LOOK FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY...BUT REST OF FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. IT WILL BE
COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS...EVEN SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 344 PM EST FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE ARRIVAL OF THE MILDER AIR WILL ALSO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION DURING THIS PERIOD LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO
NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY...AND THOSE THAT DO SHOULD ONLY SEE A TRACE. MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND IT WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING POPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
TEMP PROFILES SUGGESTING IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH LOW
TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
NEXT WEEK BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. SHOWERS
TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONALBORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C
SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S TO
MAYBE 60F AT KBTV. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION
STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS THE
COLDER SECONDARY COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE THROUGH UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT SO HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE
40S.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR TO PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS
AT SLK AS LAKE-EFECT BAND DECAYS/PIVOTS NORTHWARD. EXPECT A
GRADUAL LOWER TO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS OVERNIGHT LEAD TO POTENTIAL LLWS AT
MSS...WITH MIXING PROMOTING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS (18-25 KTS)
AT MOST OF THE TAFS SATURDAY. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPING SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 17-20Z...TENDING
TO BE THE MOST PERSISTENT AT SLK AND MSS. TREATED THIS WITH VCSH
FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 212349
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
649 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY AND COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY...AND CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 648 PM EST FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND
NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR
ADVECTING INTO REGION THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED FOR CLEARING
SKIES WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COMING TO AN END. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH
OF THE AREA ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT...LOOK FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY...BUT REST OF FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. IT WILL BE
COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS...EVEN SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 344 PM EST FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE ARRIVAL OF THE MILDER AIR WILL ALSO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION DURING THIS PERIOD LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO
NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY...AND THOSE THAT DO SHOULD ONLY SEE A TRACE. MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND IT WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING POPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
TEMP PROFILES SUGGESTING IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH LOW
TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
NEXT WEEK BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. SHOWERS
TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONALBORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C
SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S TO
MAYBE 60F AT KBTV. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION
STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS THE
COLDER SECONDARY COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE THROUGH UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT SO HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE
40S.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS VFR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED
AT ALL SITES BY 00Z. CLEARING WILL BE SHORT LIVES THROUGH AS THE
FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY MORNING ALLOWING CLOUDS UPSTREAM
TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH TO MOVE BACK IN. IN GENERAL...LOOKS LIKE
IT`LL BE A MID DECK AROUND 10KFT...BUT SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL
MOVE BACK INTO KSLK AFTER MIDNIGHT TO ABOUT 13Z WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD POSSIBLE AT KMSS. AFTER 12-23Z THOUGH...ALL SITES ARE VFR
THOUGH SKY COVER INCREASES TO BKN-OVC FROM 050-100KFT.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH
SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 212349
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
649 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY AND COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY...AND CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 648 PM EST FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND
NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR
ADVECTING INTO REGION THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED FOR CLEARING
SKIES WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COMING TO AN END. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH
OF THE AREA ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT...LOOK FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY...BUT REST OF FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. IT WILL BE
COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS...EVEN SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 344 PM EST FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE ARRIVAL OF THE MILDER AIR WILL ALSO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION DURING THIS PERIOD LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO
NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY...AND THOSE THAT DO SHOULD ONLY SEE A TRACE. MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND IT WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING POPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
TEMP PROFILES SUGGESTING IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH LOW
TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
NEXT WEEK BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. SHOWERS
TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONALBORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C
SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S TO
MAYBE 60F AT KBTV. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION
STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS THE
COLDER SECONDARY COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE THROUGH UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT SO HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE
40S.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS VFR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED
AT ALL SITES BY 00Z. CLEARING WILL BE SHORT LIVES THROUGH AS THE
FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY MORNING ALLOWING CLOUDS UPSTREAM
TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH TO MOVE BACK IN. IN GENERAL...LOOKS LIKE
IT`LL BE A MID DECK AROUND 10KFT...BUT SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL
MOVE BACK INTO KSLK AFTER MIDNIGHT TO ABOUT 13Z WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD POSSIBLE AT KMSS. AFTER 12-23Z THOUGH...ALL SITES ARE VFR
THOUGH SKY COVER INCREASES TO BKN-OVC FROM 050-100KFT.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH
SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 212349
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
649 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY AND COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY...AND CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 648 PM EST FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND
NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR
ADVECTING INTO REGION THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED FOR CLEARING
SKIES WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COMING TO AN END. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH
OF THE AREA ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT...LOOK FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY...BUT REST OF FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. IT WILL BE
COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS...EVEN SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 344 PM EST FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE ARRIVAL OF THE MILDER AIR WILL ALSO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION DURING THIS PERIOD LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO
NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY...AND THOSE THAT DO SHOULD ONLY SEE A TRACE. MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND IT WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING POPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
TEMP PROFILES SUGGESTING IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH LOW
TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
NEXT WEEK BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. SHOWERS
TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONALBORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C
SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S TO
MAYBE 60F AT KBTV. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION
STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS THE
COLDER SECONDARY COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE THROUGH UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT SO HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE
40S.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS VFR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED
AT ALL SITES BY 00Z. CLEARING WILL BE SHORT LIVES THROUGH AS THE
FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY MORNING ALLOWING CLOUDS UPSTREAM
TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH TO MOVE BACK IN. IN GENERAL...LOOKS LIKE
IT`LL BE A MID DECK AROUND 10KFT...BUT SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL
MOVE BACK INTO KSLK AFTER MIDNIGHT TO ABOUT 13Z WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD POSSIBLE AT KMSS. AFTER 12-23Z THOUGH...ALL SITES ARE VFR
THOUGH SKY COVER INCREASES TO BKN-OVC FROM 050-100KFT.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH
SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 212349
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
649 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY AND COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY...AND CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 648 PM EST FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND
NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR
ADVECTING INTO REGION THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED FOR CLEARING
SKIES WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COMING TO AN END. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH
OF THE AREA ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT...LOOK FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY...BUT REST OF FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. IT WILL BE
COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS...EVEN SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 344 PM EST FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE ARRIVAL OF THE MILDER AIR WILL ALSO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION DURING THIS PERIOD LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO
NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY...AND THOSE THAT DO SHOULD ONLY SEE A TRACE. MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND IT WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING POPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
TEMP PROFILES SUGGESTING IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH LOW
TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
NEXT WEEK BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. SHOWERS
TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONALBORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C
SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S TO
MAYBE 60F AT KBTV. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION
STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS THE
COLDER SECONDARY COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE THROUGH UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT SO HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE
40S.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS VFR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED
AT ALL SITES BY 00Z. CLEARING WILL BE SHORT LIVES THROUGH AS THE
FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY MORNING ALLOWING CLOUDS UPSTREAM
TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH TO MOVE BACK IN. IN GENERAL...LOOKS LIKE
IT`LL BE A MID DECK AROUND 10KFT...BUT SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL
MOVE BACK INTO KSLK AFTER MIDNIGHT TO ABOUT 13Z WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD POSSIBLE AT KMSS. AFTER 12-23Z THOUGH...ALL SITES ARE VFR
THOUGH SKY COVER INCREASES TO BKN-OVC FROM 050-100KFT.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH
SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KALY 212123
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
423 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ASIDE FROM A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...A COLD AND DRY NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR TONIGHT.  A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO
THE REGION LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE REGION FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 422 PM EST...LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS OVER THE AREA. INVERSION HEIGHTS HAVE
LOWERED DOWN TO ABOUT 5000 FEET THANKS TO A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE...WHICH HAS CAUSED ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TO
DWINDLE DOWN TO JUST LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...MAINLY FOR
AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. HIRES MODELS...SUCH AS OUR LOCAL
WRF AND THE 3KM HRRR...SHOW ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY THIS EVENING
TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AND AFFECT JUST THE FAR WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE JUST
A COATING OR LESS...AS ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
CONFINED TO AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE SHORE.

OUTSIDE OF THIS LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY...SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE TEENS
/SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREENS/. THESE LOW
TEMPS ARE IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING IT/S ONLY MID NOVEMBER...AND MOST
OF THE AREA DOES NOT HAVE A DEEP SNOW COVER IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A COLD AND DRY START...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE
WEST FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. OUR REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AT 500 HPA...AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL
BE RAPIDLY WARMING THROUGH THE DAY THANKS TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION...AND 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE FREEZING IN
MANY AREAS BY THE AFTN HOURS.

WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY...SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA /NORTH OF I-90/...CLOSER
TO THE LARGE SCALE FORCING. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO START...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A
WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN. IN MANY NORTHERN AREAS...THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP /SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN/...WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO JUST A COLD PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT. FOR SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION...TEMPS ON SAT MAY
RISE JUST ABOVE FREEZING...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE FOR
SAT NIGHT...AND PRECIP MAY WIND UP ONLY BEING IN THE FORM OF A
PLAIN COLD RAIN. ALL MEMBERS OF THE 15Z SREF SUGGEST THIS EVENT
WILL BE LIQUID FOR ALBANY...AND EVEN THE 12Z GEFS SHOW A LIMITED
WINDOW FOR MIXED PRECIP AT ALBANY AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING MIXED PRECIP WILL BE FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...SRN VT...TACONICS AND THE BERKSHIRES. EVEN IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN...LIGHT QPF WILL PREVENT ICE ACCRETION FROM BEING
MORE THAN JUST A COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH...WITH JUST A
COATING OF SNOW/SLEET POSSIBLE FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS AS WELL.

TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MANY AREAS ON
SATURDAY. ON SAT NIGHT...TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME OUT OF THE
S-SW AND BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO END BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AS A LINGERING
BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWER AROUND DUE TO THE SFC BOUNDARY NEARBY...BUT MOST AREAS
LOOK TO STAY DRY ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING LATE IN THE
DAY...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A MUCH STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS STORM WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A WIDESPREAD STEADY RAINFALL WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...AND PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN
EVERYWHERE DUE TO WARM TEMPS ALOFT. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES C EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY. A SOLID HALF INCH OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR THE WHOLE REGION...AS 850 HPA SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
50 KTS OR MORE TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEPT TEMPS MILD FOR SUN NIGHT...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S. RAINFALL SHOULD BE ENDING ON MONDAY MORNING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH.  BEHIND THE RAINFALL...THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING
FOR LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY...AS OUR REGION BECOMES FULLY IN THE
STORM/S WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE MID
50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN UNITED NEXT WEEK WITH NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES. IN THE
MEANWHILE THERE WILL BE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL
DAMPEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AS A TROUGH HEADS FOR THE WEST COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK
ESPECIALLY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE UNCERTAINTIES WILL ORIGINATE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHERE THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IS MODEL
GUIDANCE.

WE START OUT WITH SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION AS LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
BECOME FAVORABLE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW FOR LAKE EFFECT TO OCCUR
INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SHORT WAVE ROTATING
ABOUT BASE OF THE DEEP TROUGH OVER NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO HEAD NORTHEASTWARD
REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST THAN THE GFS AND BRINGS ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEP ITS PRECIPITATION
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH. HAVE RUN WITH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MY FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
NEAR NORMAL WHICH MEANS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY FOR SOME
AREAS.

THERE IS MUCH GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO
THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS
WILL HAVE BIG IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AND WHERE AND WHEN A
LOW FORMS AND HOW STRONG IT MAY GET. INDICATIONS ARE A LOW SHOULD
FORM SOMEWHERE OFF THE SOUTHEAST TO MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. HAVE RUN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/CLIMATOLOGICALLY FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SINCE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS SO HIGH.

AS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE WEATHER
SHOULD BE FAIR AS WE ARE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

OVERALL GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...18Z/SAT.

HEIGHTS WILL RISE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AT THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY. DECREASING CLOUD COVER WITH SKIES
EXPECTED TO BECOME CLEAR FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING BEFORE HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAM IN SATURDAY MORNING.

HAVE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION HAS RESULTED IN
BRISK AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS DOWN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND ACROSS THE TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THERE WILL BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER FAR
WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL
IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS





000
FXUS61 KALY 212123
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
423 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ASIDE FROM A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...A COLD AND DRY NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR TONIGHT.  A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO
THE REGION LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE REGION FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 422 PM EST...LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS OVER THE AREA. INVERSION HEIGHTS HAVE
LOWERED DOWN TO ABOUT 5000 FEET THANKS TO A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE...WHICH HAS CAUSED ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TO
DWINDLE DOWN TO JUST LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...MAINLY FOR
AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. HIRES MODELS...SUCH AS OUR LOCAL
WRF AND THE 3KM HRRR...SHOW ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY THIS EVENING
TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AND AFFECT JUST THE FAR WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE JUST
A COATING OR LESS...AS ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
CONFINED TO AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE SHORE.

OUTSIDE OF THIS LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY...SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE TEENS
/SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREENS/. THESE LOW
TEMPS ARE IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING IT/S ONLY MID NOVEMBER...AND MOST
OF THE AREA DOES NOT HAVE A DEEP SNOW COVER IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A COLD AND DRY START...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE
WEST FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. OUR REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AT 500 HPA...AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL
BE RAPIDLY WARMING THROUGH THE DAY THANKS TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION...AND 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE FREEZING IN
MANY AREAS BY THE AFTN HOURS.

WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY...SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA /NORTH OF I-90/...CLOSER
TO THE LARGE SCALE FORCING. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO START...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A
WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN. IN MANY NORTHERN AREAS...THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP /SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN/...WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO JUST A COLD PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT. FOR SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION...TEMPS ON SAT MAY
RISE JUST ABOVE FREEZING...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE FOR
SAT NIGHT...AND PRECIP MAY WIND UP ONLY BEING IN THE FORM OF A
PLAIN COLD RAIN. ALL MEMBERS OF THE 15Z SREF SUGGEST THIS EVENT
WILL BE LIQUID FOR ALBANY...AND EVEN THE 12Z GEFS SHOW A LIMITED
WINDOW FOR MIXED PRECIP AT ALBANY AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING MIXED PRECIP WILL BE FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...SRN VT...TACONICS AND THE BERKSHIRES. EVEN IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN...LIGHT QPF WILL PREVENT ICE ACCRETION FROM BEING
MORE THAN JUST A COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH...WITH JUST A
COATING OF SNOW/SLEET POSSIBLE FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS AS WELL.

TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MANY AREAS ON
SATURDAY. ON SAT NIGHT...TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME OUT OF THE
S-SW AND BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO END BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AS A LINGERING
BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWER AROUND DUE TO THE SFC BOUNDARY NEARBY...BUT MOST AREAS
LOOK TO STAY DRY ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING LATE IN THE
DAY...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A MUCH STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS STORM WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A WIDESPREAD STEADY RAINFALL WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...AND PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN
EVERYWHERE DUE TO WARM TEMPS ALOFT. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES C EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY. A SOLID HALF INCH OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR THE WHOLE REGION...AS 850 HPA SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
50 KTS OR MORE TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEPT TEMPS MILD FOR SUN NIGHT...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S. RAINFALL SHOULD BE ENDING ON MONDAY MORNING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH.  BEHIND THE RAINFALL...THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING
FOR LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY...AS OUR REGION BECOMES FULLY IN THE
STORM/S WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE MID
50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN UNITED NEXT WEEK WITH NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES. IN THE
MEANWHILE THERE WILL BE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL
DAMPEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AS A TROUGH HEADS FOR THE WEST COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK
ESPECIALLY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE UNCERTAINTIES WILL ORIGINATE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHERE THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IS MODEL
GUIDANCE.

WE START OUT WITH SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION AS LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
BECOME FAVORABLE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW FOR LAKE EFFECT TO OCCUR
INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SHORT WAVE ROTATING
ABOUT BASE OF THE DEEP TROUGH OVER NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO HEAD NORTHEASTWARD
REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST THAN THE GFS AND BRINGS ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEP ITS PRECIPITATION
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH. HAVE RUN WITH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MY FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
NEAR NORMAL WHICH MEANS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY FOR SOME
AREAS.

THERE IS MUCH GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO
THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS
WILL HAVE BIG IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AND WHERE AND WHEN A
LOW FORMS AND HOW STRONG IT MAY GET. INDICATIONS ARE A LOW SHOULD
FORM SOMEWHERE OFF THE SOUTHEAST TO MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. HAVE RUN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/CLIMATOLOGICALLY FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SINCE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS SO HIGH.

AS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE WEATHER
SHOULD BE FAIR AS WE ARE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

OVERALL GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...18Z/SAT.

HEIGHTS WILL RISE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AT THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY. DECREASING CLOUD COVER WITH SKIES
EXPECTED TO BECOME CLEAR FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING BEFORE HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAM IN SATURDAY MORNING.

HAVE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION HAS RESULTED IN
BRISK AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS DOWN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND ACROSS THE TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THERE WILL BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER FAR
WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL
IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




000
FXUS61 KBTV 212047
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
347 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY AND COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY...AND CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 344 PM EST FRIDAY...DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO REGION THIS
AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED FOR CLEARING SKIES WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES COMING TO AN END. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THIS
EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST
LATER TONIGHT...LOOK FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN PART OF SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...BUT REST OF FORECAST AREA
WILL REMAIN DRY. IT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS...EVEN
SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 344 PM EST FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE ARRIVAL OF THE MILDER AIR WILL ALSO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION DURING THIS PERIOD LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO
NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY...AND THOSE THAT DO SHOULD ONLY SEE A TRACE. MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND IT WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING POPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
TEMP PROFILES SUGGESTING IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH LOW
TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
NEXT WEEK BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. SHOWERS
TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE INTL
BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MID-LEVEL
DRY SLOT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S TO MAYBE 60F AT KBTV. LATE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COMBINATION
OF SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLDER SECONDARY
COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE THROUGH UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS VFR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED
AT ALL SITES BY 00Z. CLEARING WILL BE SHORT LIVES THROUGH AS THE
FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY MORNING ALLOWING CLOUDS UPSTREAM
TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH TO MOVE BACK IN. IN GENERAL...LOOKS LIKE
IT`LL BE A MID DECK AROUND 10KFT...BUT SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL
MOVE BACK INTO KSLK AFTER MIDNIGHT TO ABOUT 13Z WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD POSSIBLE AT KMSS. AFTER 12-23Z THOUGH...ALL SITES ARE VFR
THOUGH SKY COVER INCREASES TO BKN-OVC FROM 050-100KFT.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH
SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 212047
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
347 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY AND COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN
SUNDAY...AND CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 344 PM EST FRIDAY...DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO REGION THIS
AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED FOR CLEARING SKIES WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES COMING TO AN END. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THIS
EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST
LATER TONIGHT...LOOK FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN PART OF SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...BUT REST OF FORECAST AREA
WILL REMAIN DRY. IT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS...EVEN
SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 344 PM EST FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE ARRIVAL OF THE MILDER AIR WILL ALSO SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION DURING THIS PERIOD LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO
NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES. AS FOR ICE...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY...AND THOSE THAT DO SHOULD ONLY SEE A TRACE. MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING TEMPS TO HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. WITH PASSAGE OF
SHORTWAVE...SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SO
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND IT WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING POPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
TEMP PROFILES SUGGESTING IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH LOW
TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
NEXT WEEK BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. SHOWERS
TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE INTL
BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MID-LEVEL
DRY SLOT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S TO MAYBE 60F AT KBTV. LATE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COMBINATION
OF SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLDER SECONDARY
COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE THROUGH UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS VFR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED
AT ALL SITES BY 00Z. CLEARING WILL BE SHORT LIVES THROUGH AS THE
FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY MORNING ALLOWING CLOUDS UPSTREAM
TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH TO MOVE BACK IN. IN GENERAL...LOOKS LIKE
IT`LL BE A MID DECK AROUND 10KFT...BUT SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL
MOVE BACK INTO KSLK AFTER MIDNIGHT TO ABOUT 13Z WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD POSSIBLE AT KMSS. AFTER 12-23Z THOUGH...ALL SITES ARE VFR
THOUGH SKY COVER INCREASES TO BKN-OVC FROM 050-100KFT.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH
SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 212004
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
304 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY DRY TODAY WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD TODAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND ALONG
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1255 PM EST FRIDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING FOR A
CONTINUATION OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES AND ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT...ALTHOUGH INTENSITY
OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS DECREASED. SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED IN
COVERAGE ACROSS ADIRONDACKS. EXPECT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN DECREASING CLOUDS...WITH NORTHEAST KINGDOM THE LAST TO
CLEAR OUT. STILL LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20S...
EVEN COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 422 AM EST FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS THE PERIOD WITH
THE NORTH COUNTRY IN NW TO WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY. ON
SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC,
ALLOWING FOR RETURN SW FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE SOUTH. A MILD
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COINCIDING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THE WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A
WINTRY MIX CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BUT DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF
WARM NOSE IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT MORE TO SNOW, RAIN AND SLEET
EVENT. HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT DRAWS CONCERNS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. HAVE INCLUDED WINTRY MIX WORDING
IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES BEING
THAT THIS EVENT IS OUT IN PERIOD 4 AND 5 WITH DETAILS STILL FUZZY.
ALSO TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL AFFECT
PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TO RAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST, SUNDAY WILL DRY OUT WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S, WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
NEXT WEEK BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. SHOWERS
TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE INTL
BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MID-LEVEL
DRY SLOT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S TO MAYBE 60F AT KBTV. LATE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COMBINATION
OF SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLDER SECONDARY
COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE THROUGH UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS VFR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED
AT ALL SITES BY 00Z. CLEARING WILL BE SHORT LIVES THROUGH AS THE
FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY MORNING ALLOWING CLOUDS UPSTREAM
TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH TO MOVE BACK IN. IN GENERAL...LOOKS LIKE
IT`LL BE A MID DECK AROUND 10KFT...BUT SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL
MOVE BACK INTO KSLK AFTER MIDNIGHT TO ABOUT 13Z WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD POSSIBLE AT KMSS. AFTER 12-23Z THOUGH...ALL SITES ARE VFR
THOUGH SKY COVER INCREASES TO BKN-OVC FROM 050-100KFT.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH
SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 212004
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
304 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY DRY TODAY WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD TODAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND ALONG
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1255 PM EST FRIDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING FOR A
CONTINUATION OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES AND ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT...ALTHOUGH INTENSITY
OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS DECREASED. SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED IN
COVERAGE ACROSS ADIRONDACKS. EXPECT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN DECREASING CLOUDS...WITH NORTHEAST KINGDOM THE LAST TO
CLEAR OUT. STILL LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20S...
EVEN COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 422 AM EST FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS THE PERIOD WITH
THE NORTH COUNTRY IN NW TO WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY. ON
SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC,
ALLOWING FOR RETURN SW FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE SOUTH. A MILD
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COINCIDING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THE WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A
WINTRY MIX CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BUT DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF
WARM NOSE IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT MORE TO SNOW, RAIN AND SLEET
EVENT. HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT DRAWS CONCERNS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. HAVE INCLUDED WINTRY MIX WORDING
IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES BEING
THAT THIS EVENT IS OUT IN PERIOD 4 AND 5 WITH DETAILS STILL FUZZY.
ALSO TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL AFFECT
PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TO RAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST, SUNDAY WILL DRY OUT WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S, WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
NEXT WEEK BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. SHOWERS
TAPER OFF BY MID-DAY MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE INTL
BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MID-LEVEL
DRY SLOT. MEAN 925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 50S TO MAYBE 60F AT KBTV. LATE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COMBINATION
OF SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS THE COLDER SECONDARY
COLD FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE THROUGH UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS VFR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED
AT ALL SITES BY 00Z. CLEARING WILL BE SHORT LIVES THROUGH AS THE
FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY MORNING ALLOWING CLOUDS UPSTREAM
TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH TO MOVE BACK IN. IN GENERAL...LOOKS LIKE
IT`LL BE A MID DECK AROUND 10KFT...BUT SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL
MOVE BACK INTO KSLK AFTER MIDNIGHT TO ABOUT 13Z WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD POSSIBLE AT KMSS. AFTER 12-23Z THOUGH...ALL SITES ARE VFR
THOUGH SKY COVER INCREASES TO BKN-OVC FROM 050-100KFT.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH
SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KALY 211808
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
108 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH COLD AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS.  A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING SOME FREEZING RAIN...TO THE REGION
SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. A MILDER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
IN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND...BEFORE SOME RAIN ARRIVES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1243 PM EST...LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS TRANSITIONED INTO MULTI
BANDS...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NY AND ACROSS THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY
AND INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. SOME UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING IN THE SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES AS WELL. MESOSCALE MODELS AREN/T PICKING UP ON THIS
ACTIVITY...BUT WILL GENERALLY EXPECT THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA LOWERS THE INVERSION HEIGHT...AND CAUSES MUCH OF THE
LAKE EFFECT TO END. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY JUST BE
A COATING...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN THE HIGHEST SPOTS IN THE
WESTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE TACONICS/BERKSHIRES MAY SEE CLOSE TO
AN INCH.

WITH COLD 850 HPA TEMPS IN PLACE /ABOUT -14 TO -15 DEGREES
C/...GOOD MIXING WILL OCCUR. THIS WILL ALLOW NW WINDS TO BE GUSTY
AT TIMES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 KTS...ESP AT KALB...WHERE AIR
IS FUNNELED DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.

TONIGHT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE LAKE SNOW
BAND EVEN MORE...BUT IT STILL MIGHT CONTINUE AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK
TO MORE OF A WESTERLY MEAN FLOW WHICH WOULD PUT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN RIM OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOME OF THESE AREAS.

REMAINING REGIONS OF THE EASTERN NEW YORK AND ALL OF ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE DRY WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT. THE
WIND WILL LIGHTEN. THIS WILL MAKE THIS NIGHT THE BEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT OF THIS COLD SPELL THUS FAR FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF
THE ADIRONDACKS. LOOK FOR LOWS TO TUMBLE TO THE TEENS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. UP WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...LOWS WILL RANGE
5 TO 10 ABOVE. WHILE WE EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE ADIRONDACKS...IF
ENOUGH THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS WERE TO DEVELOP...SOME SNOW
SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD MAKE A RUN AT ZERO DEGREES...WHILE MOST OF
THE ADIRONDACKS WILL AVERAGE CLOSER TO 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...AFTER A COLD START...SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD START THE
DAY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE RATHER QUICKLY FROM MID MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INTENSIFIES. GIVEN
THAT WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY...AND THAT TEMPS
WILL START OFF SO COLD...WE HAVE SIDED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...MID/UPPER 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S
ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS...AND COULD REACH AREAS JUST W OF
THE HUDSON RIVER TOWARD OR JUST AFTER SUNSET. FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST P-TYPE SHOULD START AS A LIGHT SNOW/SLEET MIX
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND PERHAPS SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION.

SAT NT...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO EXPAND E/NE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
EVENING...AND PERSISTS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS WELL AS SOME
ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES. AGAIN...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT A LIGHT MIX
OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WOULD BE MOST LIKELY...ALTHOUGH COULD
CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN LATER AT NIGHT IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH AND EAST AS SFC TEMPS RISE A BIT INTO AND THROUGH THE
LOWER/MID 30S. SINCE THE GROUND IS SO COLD...THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH
ANY FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE MAINLY TRAVEL RELATED...WITH SOME LIGHT
ICING POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY AT THIS TIME...BUT IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF FREEZING RAIN...THEN FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND MOHAWK
VALLEY.

SUNDAY...MAIN THRUST OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP MAY
STILL BE ONGOING INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
THEREAFTER...DESPITE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND N OF
INTERSTATE 90...WHERE LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST. HAVE SIDED ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MOST AREAS...WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO REACH 45-50 IN VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 50S COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT SHOULD MORE SUNSHINE
BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...AND A HEALTHY SURGE OF MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
JET APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH...RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY FALL
INTO THE 30S IN THE EVENING...BEFORE RISING LATER AT NIGHT WITH
THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND WARM ADVECTION. GENERALLY ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION MON MORNING...WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MON AND PASSES THROUGH MON NT.
SO...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE MON MORNING...ESP
ACROSS N/E AREAS...TAPERING TO SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN MON NT WITH THE FROPA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SHOWERS BECOME SCATTERED MON AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW
BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. DEPENDING ON IF ANY SUN
CAN BREAK THROUGH...TEMPS COULD SURGE INTO THE 60S. FOR
NOW...GIVEN THAT IT IS NOVEMBER WITH SUCH A LOW SUN ANGLE...WE
THINK THAT AT LEAST SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY HOLD ON...AND THEREFORE
WENT A BIT COOLER THAN MOST GUIDANCE...WITH MAINLY 55-60 IN
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH
HAVE INCLUDED SOME 60-65 TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT. AGAIN...SHOULD MORE
SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR. SHOWERY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH/END AS SNOW ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD TUE AM...WITH
MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S.

TUE-TUE NT...AT THIS VANTAGE POINT...APPEARS GRADUAL COOLING COULD
COMMENCE...WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE RATHER
MILD...GENERALLY 50-55 IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TUE NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED...AS THE 00Z/21 GFS AND MOST GEFS INDICATE A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST...KEEPING MOST OF THE
PRECIP WELL E OF THE REGION...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT
THIS WAVE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND THAT PRECIP EXPANDS
ACROSS AT LEAST THE S/E HALF OF THE REGION...IF NOT EVEN FURTHER
N AND W. THIS HAS BEEN A N/W TREND IN THE ECMWF FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OVERALL TRENDS VERY CLOSELY...AS THE
ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS THAT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES POTENTIALLY CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE OFFSHORE WAVE
REMAINS SEPARATE FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE TWO COULD PHASE SHOULD THAT ENERGY DIG MORE
QUICKLY...RESULTING IN A MUCH MORE POTENT EAST COAST STORM SYSTEM.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS FOR AREAS S/E OF ALBANY FOR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX WED...AND SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO ENTITIES...THURSDAY COULD BE RATHER
BLUSTERY WITH AT LEAST SOME PASSING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
TEMPS WED-THU WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL...WITH GENERALLY UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S FOR MAX TEMPS IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...18Z/SAT.

HEIGHTS WILL RISE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AT THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY. DECREASING CLOUD COVER WITH SKIES
EXPECTED TO BECOME CLEAR FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING BEFORE HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAM IN SATURDAY MORNING.

HAVE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION HAS RESULTED IN
BRISK AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS DOWN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND ACROSS THE TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...FZRA...SLEET.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK
VALLEY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH TOTAL QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

MILDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY...50S AND LOW 60S MONDAY AND 50S TUESDAY...WITH NIGHTTIME
LOWS MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BRING A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TO THE HSA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL AND MINOR SNOW MELT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS/HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...KL/SNYDER/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KALY 211808
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
108 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH COLD AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS.  A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING SOME FREEZING RAIN...TO THE REGION
SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. A MILDER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
IN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND...BEFORE SOME RAIN ARRIVES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1243 PM EST...LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS TRANSITIONED INTO MULTI
BANDS...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NY AND ACROSS THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY
AND INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. SOME UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING IN THE SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES AS WELL. MESOSCALE MODELS AREN/T PICKING UP ON THIS
ACTIVITY...BUT WILL GENERALLY EXPECT THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA LOWERS THE INVERSION HEIGHT...AND CAUSES MUCH OF THE
LAKE EFFECT TO END. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY JUST BE
A COATING...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN THE HIGHEST SPOTS IN THE
WESTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE TACONICS/BERKSHIRES MAY SEE CLOSE TO
AN INCH.

WITH COLD 850 HPA TEMPS IN PLACE /ABOUT -14 TO -15 DEGREES
C/...GOOD MIXING WILL OCCUR. THIS WILL ALLOW NW WINDS TO BE GUSTY
AT TIMES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 KTS...ESP AT KALB...WHERE AIR
IS FUNNELED DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.

TONIGHT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE LAKE SNOW
BAND EVEN MORE...BUT IT STILL MIGHT CONTINUE AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK
TO MORE OF A WESTERLY MEAN FLOW WHICH WOULD PUT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN RIM OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOME OF THESE AREAS.

REMAINING REGIONS OF THE EASTERN NEW YORK AND ALL OF ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE DRY WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT. THE
WIND WILL LIGHTEN. THIS WILL MAKE THIS NIGHT THE BEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT OF THIS COLD SPELL THUS FAR FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF
THE ADIRONDACKS. LOOK FOR LOWS TO TUMBLE TO THE TEENS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. UP WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...LOWS WILL RANGE
5 TO 10 ABOVE. WHILE WE EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE ADIRONDACKS...IF
ENOUGH THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS WERE TO DEVELOP...SOME SNOW
SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD MAKE A RUN AT ZERO DEGREES...WHILE MOST OF
THE ADIRONDACKS WILL AVERAGE CLOSER TO 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...AFTER A COLD START...SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD START THE
DAY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE RATHER QUICKLY FROM MID MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INTENSIFIES. GIVEN
THAT WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY...AND THAT TEMPS
WILL START OFF SO COLD...WE HAVE SIDED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...MID/UPPER 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S
ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS...AND COULD REACH AREAS JUST W OF
THE HUDSON RIVER TOWARD OR JUST AFTER SUNSET. FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST P-TYPE SHOULD START AS A LIGHT SNOW/SLEET MIX
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND PERHAPS SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION.

SAT NT...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO EXPAND E/NE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
EVENING...AND PERSISTS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS WELL AS SOME
ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES. AGAIN...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT A LIGHT MIX
OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WOULD BE MOST LIKELY...ALTHOUGH COULD
CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN LATER AT NIGHT IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH AND EAST AS SFC TEMPS RISE A BIT INTO AND THROUGH THE
LOWER/MID 30S. SINCE THE GROUND IS SO COLD...THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH
ANY FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE MAINLY TRAVEL RELATED...WITH SOME LIGHT
ICING POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY AT THIS TIME...BUT IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF FREEZING RAIN...THEN FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND MOHAWK
VALLEY.

SUNDAY...MAIN THRUST OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP MAY
STILL BE ONGOING INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
THEREAFTER...DESPITE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND N OF
INTERSTATE 90...WHERE LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST. HAVE SIDED ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MOST AREAS...WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO REACH 45-50 IN VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 50S COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT SHOULD MORE SUNSHINE
BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...AND A HEALTHY SURGE OF MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
JET APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH...RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY FALL
INTO THE 30S IN THE EVENING...BEFORE RISING LATER AT NIGHT WITH
THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND WARM ADVECTION. GENERALLY ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION MON MORNING...WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MON AND PASSES THROUGH MON NT.
SO...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE MON MORNING...ESP
ACROSS N/E AREAS...TAPERING TO SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN MON NT WITH THE FROPA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SHOWERS BECOME SCATTERED MON AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW
BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. DEPENDING ON IF ANY SUN
CAN BREAK THROUGH...TEMPS COULD SURGE INTO THE 60S. FOR
NOW...GIVEN THAT IT IS NOVEMBER WITH SUCH A LOW SUN ANGLE...WE
THINK THAT AT LEAST SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY HOLD ON...AND THEREFORE
WENT A BIT COOLER THAN MOST GUIDANCE...WITH MAINLY 55-60 IN
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH
HAVE INCLUDED SOME 60-65 TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT. AGAIN...SHOULD MORE
SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR. SHOWERY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH/END AS SNOW ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD TUE AM...WITH
MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S.

TUE-TUE NT...AT THIS VANTAGE POINT...APPEARS GRADUAL COOLING COULD
COMMENCE...WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE RATHER
MILD...GENERALLY 50-55 IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TUE NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED...AS THE 00Z/21 GFS AND MOST GEFS INDICATE A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST...KEEPING MOST OF THE
PRECIP WELL E OF THE REGION...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT
THIS WAVE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND THAT PRECIP EXPANDS
ACROSS AT LEAST THE S/E HALF OF THE REGION...IF NOT EVEN FURTHER
N AND W. THIS HAS BEEN A N/W TREND IN THE ECMWF FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OVERALL TRENDS VERY CLOSELY...AS THE
ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS THAT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES POTENTIALLY CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE OFFSHORE WAVE
REMAINS SEPARATE FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE TWO COULD PHASE SHOULD THAT ENERGY DIG MORE
QUICKLY...RESULTING IN A MUCH MORE POTENT EAST COAST STORM SYSTEM.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS FOR AREAS S/E OF ALBANY FOR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX WED...AND SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO ENTITIES...THURSDAY COULD BE RATHER
BLUSTERY WITH AT LEAST SOME PASSING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
TEMPS WED-THU WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL...WITH GENERALLY UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S FOR MAX TEMPS IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...18Z/SAT.

HEIGHTS WILL RISE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AT THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY. DECREASING CLOUD COVER WITH SKIES
EXPECTED TO BECOME CLEAR FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING BEFORE HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAM IN SATURDAY MORNING.

HAVE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION HAS RESULTED IN
BRISK AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS DOWN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND ACROSS THE TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...FZRA...SLEET.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK
VALLEY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH TOTAL QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

MILDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY...50S AND LOW 60S MONDAY AND 50S TUESDAY...WITH NIGHTTIME
LOWS MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BRING A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TO THE HSA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL AND MINOR SNOW MELT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS/HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...KL/SNYDER/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KBTV 211801
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
101 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY DRY TODAY WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD TODAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND ALONG
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1255 PM EST FRIDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING FOR A
CONTINUATION OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES AND ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT...ALTHOUGH INTENSITY
OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS DECREASED. SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED IN
COVERAGE ACROSS ADIRONDACKS. EXPECT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN DECREASING CLOUDS...WITH NORTHEAST KINGDOM THE LAST TO
CLEAR OUT. STILL LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20S...
EVEN COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS THE PERIOD WITH
THE NORTH COUNTRY IN NW TO WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY. ON
SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC,
ALLOWING FOR RETURN SW FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE SOUTH. A MILD
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COINCIDING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THE WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A
WINTRY MIX CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BUT DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF
WARM NOSE IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT MORE TO SNOW, RAIN AND SLEET
EVENT. HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT DRAWS CONCERNS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. HAVE INCLUDED WINTRY MIX WORDING
IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES BEING
THAT THIS EVENT IS OUT IN PERIOD 4 AND 5 WITH DETAILS STILL FUZZY.
ALSO TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL AFFECT
PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TO RAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST, SUNDAY WILL DRY OUT WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S, WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD
THOUGH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING LEAVING THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY.

SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MEAN
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATING ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS VFR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED
AT ALL SITES BY 00Z. CLEARING WILL BE SHORT LIVES THROUGH AS THE
FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY MORNING ALLOWING CLOUDS UPSTREAM
TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH TO MOVE BACK IN. IN GENERAL...LOOKS LIKE
IT`LL BE A MID DECK AROUND 10KFT...BUT SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL
MOVE BACK INTO KSLK AFTER MIDNIGHT TO ABOUT 13Z WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD POSSIBLE AT KMSS. AFTER 12-23Z THOUGH...ALL SITES ARE VFR
THOUGH SKY COVER INCREASES TO BKN-OVC FROM 050-100KFT.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH
SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 211801
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
101 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY DRY TODAY WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD TODAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND ALONG
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1255 PM EST FRIDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING FOR A
CONTINUATION OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES AND ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT...ALTHOUGH INTENSITY
OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS DECREASED. SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED IN
COVERAGE ACROSS ADIRONDACKS. EXPECT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN DECREASING CLOUDS...WITH NORTHEAST KINGDOM THE LAST TO
CLEAR OUT. STILL LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20S...
EVEN COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS THE PERIOD WITH
THE NORTH COUNTRY IN NW TO WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY. ON
SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC,
ALLOWING FOR RETURN SW FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE SOUTH. A MILD
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COINCIDING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THE WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A
WINTRY MIX CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BUT DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF
WARM NOSE IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT MORE TO SNOW, RAIN AND SLEET
EVENT. HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT DRAWS CONCERNS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. HAVE INCLUDED WINTRY MIX WORDING
IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES BEING
THAT THIS EVENT IS OUT IN PERIOD 4 AND 5 WITH DETAILS STILL FUZZY.
ALSO TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL AFFECT
PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TO RAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST, SUNDAY WILL DRY OUT WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S, WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD
THOUGH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING LEAVING THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY.

SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MEAN
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATING ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS VFR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED
AT ALL SITES BY 00Z. CLEARING WILL BE SHORT LIVES THROUGH AS THE
FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY MORNING ALLOWING CLOUDS UPSTREAM
TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH TO MOVE BACK IN. IN GENERAL...LOOKS LIKE
IT`LL BE A MID DECK AROUND 10KFT...BUT SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL
MOVE BACK INTO KSLK AFTER MIDNIGHT TO ABOUT 13Z WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD POSSIBLE AT KMSS. AFTER 12-23Z THOUGH...ALL SITES ARE VFR
THOUGH SKY COVER INCREASES TO BKN-OVC FROM 050-100KFT.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH
SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 211801
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
101 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY DRY TODAY WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD TODAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND ALONG
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1255 PM EST FRIDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING FOR A
CONTINUATION OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES AND ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT...ALTHOUGH INTENSITY
OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS DECREASED. SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED IN
COVERAGE ACROSS ADIRONDACKS. EXPECT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN DECREASING CLOUDS...WITH NORTHEAST KINGDOM THE LAST TO
CLEAR OUT. STILL LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20S...
EVEN COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS THE PERIOD WITH
THE NORTH COUNTRY IN NW TO WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY. ON
SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC,
ALLOWING FOR RETURN SW FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE SOUTH. A MILD
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COINCIDING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THE WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A
WINTRY MIX CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BUT DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF
WARM NOSE IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT MORE TO SNOW, RAIN AND SLEET
EVENT. HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT DRAWS CONCERNS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. HAVE INCLUDED WINTRY MIX WORDING
IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES BEING
THAT THIS EVENT IS OUT IN PERIOD 4 AND 5 WITH DETAILS STILL FUZZY.
ALSO TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL AFFECT
PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TO RAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST, SUNDAY WILL DRY OUT WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S, WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD
THOUGH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING LEAVING THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY.

SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MEAN
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATING ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS VFR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED
AT ALL SITES BY 00Z. CLEARING WILL BE SHORT LIVES THROUGH AS THE
FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY MORNING ALLOWING CLOUDS UPSTREAM
TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH TO MOVE BACK IN. IN GENERAL...LOOKS LIKE
IT`LL BE A MID DECK AROUND 10KFT...BUT SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL
MOVE BACK INTO KSLK AFTER MIDNIGHT TO ABOUT 13Z WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD POSSIBLE AT KMSS. AFTER 12-23Z THOUGH...ALL SITES ARE VFR
THOUGH SKY COVER INCREASES TO BKN-OVC FROM 050-100KFT.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH
SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 211801
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
101 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY DRY TODAY WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD TODAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND ALONG
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1255 PM EST FRIDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING FOR A
CONTINUATION OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES AND ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT...ALTHOUGH INTENSITY
OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS DECREASED. SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED IN
COVERAGE ACROSS ADIRONDACKS. EXPECT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN DECREASING CLOUDS...WITH NORTHEAST KINGDOM THE LAST TO
CLEAR OUT. STILL LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20S...
EVEN COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS THE PERIOD WITH
THE NORTH COUNTRY IN NW TO WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY. ON
SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC,
ALLOWING FOR RETURN SW FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE SOUTH. A MILD
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COINCIDING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THE WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A
WINTRY MIX CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BUT DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF
WARM NOSE IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT MORE TO SNOW, RAIN AND SLEET
EVENT. HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT DRAWS CONCERNS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. HAVE INCLUDED WINTRY MIX WORDING
IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES BEING
THAT THIS EVENT IS OUT IN PERIOD 4 AND 5 WITH DETAILS STILL FUZZY.
ALSO TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL AFFECT
PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TO RAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST, SUNDAY WILL DRY OUT WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S, WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD
THOUGH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING LEAVING THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY.

SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MEAN
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATING ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS VFR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED
AT ALL SITES BY 00Z. CLEARING WILL BE SHORT LIVES THROUGH AS THE
FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY MORNING ALLOWING CLOUDS UPSTREAM
TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH TO MOVE BACK IN. IN GENERAL...LOOKS LIKE
IT`LL BE A MID DECK AROUND 10KFT...BUT SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL
MOVE BACK INTO KSLK AFTER MIDNIGHT TO ABOUT 13Z WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD POSSIBLE AT KMSS. AFTER 12-23Z THOUGH...ALL SITES ARE VFR
THOUGH SKY COVER INCREASES TO BKN-OVC FROM 050-100KFT.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH
SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 211744
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1244 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH COLD AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS.  A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING SOME FREEZING RAIN...TO THE REGION
SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. A MILDER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
IN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND...BEFORE SOME RAIN ARRIVES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1243 PM EST...LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS TRANSITIONED INTO MULTI
BANDS...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NY AND ACROSS THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY
AND INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. SOME UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING IN THE SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES AS WELL. MESOSCALE MODELS AREN/T PICKING UP ON THIS
ACTIVITY...BUT WILL GENERALLY EXPECT THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA LOWERS THE INVERSION HEIGHT...AND CAUSES MUCH OF THE
LAKE EFFECT TO END. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY JUST BE
A COATING...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN THE HIGHEST SPOTS IN THE
WESTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE TACONICS/BERKSHIRES MAY SEE CLOSE TO
AN INCH.

WITH COLD 850 HPA TEMPS IN PLACE /ABOUT -14 TO -15 DEGREES
C/...GOOD MIXING WILL OCCUR. THIS WILL ALLOW NW WINDS TO BE GUSTY
AT TIMES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 KTS...ESP AT KALB...WHERE AIR
IS FUNNELED DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.

TONIGHT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE LAKE SNOW
BAND EVEN MORE...BUT IT STILL MIGHT CONTINUE AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK
TO MORE OF A WESTERLY MEAN FLOW WHICH WOULD PUT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN RIM OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOME OF THESE AREAS.

REMAINING REGIONS OF THE EASTERN NEW YORK AND ALL OF ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE DRY WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT. THE
WIND WILL LIGHTEN. THIS WILL MAKE THIS NIGHT THE BEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT OF THIS COLD SPELL THUS FAR FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF
THE ADIRONDACKS. LOOK FOR LOWS TO TUMBLE TO THE TEENS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. UP WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...LOWS WILL RANGE
5 TO 10 ABOVE. WHILE WE EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE ADIRONDACKS...IF
ENOUGH THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS WERE TO DEVELOP...SOME SNOW
SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD MAKE A RUN AT ZERO DEGREES...WHILE MOST OF
THE ADIRONDACKS WILL AVERAGE CLOSER TO 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...AFTER A COLD START...SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD START THE
DAY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE RATHER QUICKLY FROM MID MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INTENSIFIES. GIVEN
THAT WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY...AND THAT TEMPS
WILL START OFF SO COLD...WE HAVE SIDED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...MID/UPPER 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S
ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS...AND COULD REACH AREAS JUST W OF
THE HUDSON RIVER TOWARD OR JUST AFTER SUNSET. FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST P-TYPE SHOULD START AS A LIGHT SNOW/SLEET MIX
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND PERHAPS SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION.

SAT NT...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO EXPAND E/NE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
EVENING...AND PERSISTS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS WELL AS SOME
ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES. AGAIN...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT A LIGHT MIX
OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WOULD BE MOST LIKELY...ALTHOUGH COULD
CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN LATER AT NIGHT IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH AND EAST AS SFC TEMPS RISE A BIT INTO AND THROUGH THE
LOWER/MID 30S. SINCE THE GROUND IS SO COLD...THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH
ANY FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE MAINLY TRAVEL RELATED...WITH SOME LIGHT
ICING POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY AT THIS TIME...BUT IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF FREEZING RAIN...THEN FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND MOHAWK
VALLEY.

SUNDAY...MAIN THRUST OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP MAY
STILL BE ONGOING INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
THEREAFTER...DESPITE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND N OF
INTERSTATE 90...WHERE LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST. HAVE SIDED ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MOST AREAS...WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO REACH 45-50 IN VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 50S COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT SHOULD MORE SUNSHINE
BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...AND A HEALTHY SURGE OF MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
JET APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH...RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY FALL
INTO THE 30S IN THE EVENING...BEFORE RISING LATER AT NIGHT WITH
THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND WARM ADVECTION. GENERALLY ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION MON MORNING...WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MON AND PASSES THROUGH MON NT.
SO...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE MON MORNING...ESP
ACROSS N/E AREAS...TAPERING TO SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN MON NT WITH THE FROPA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SHOWERS BECOME SCATTERED MON AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW
BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. DEPENDING ON IF ANY SUN
CAN BREAK THROUGH...TEMPS COULD SURGE INTO THE 60S. FOR
NOW...GIVEN THAT IT IS NOVEMBER WITH SUCH A LOW SUN ANGLE...WE
THINK THAT AT LEAST SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY HOLD ON...AND THEREFORE
WENT A BIT COOLER THAN MOST GUIDANCE...WITH MAINLY 55-60 IN
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH
HAVE INCLUDED SOME 60-65 TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT. AGAIN...SHOULD MORE
SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR. SHOWERY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH/END AS SNOW ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD TUE AM...WITH
MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S.

TUE-TUE NT...AT THIS VANTAGE POINT...APPEARS GRADUAL COOLING COULD
COMMENCE...WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE RATHER
MILD...GENERALLY 50-55 IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TUE NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED...AS THE 00Z/21 GFS AND MOST GEFS INDICATE A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST...KEEPING MOST OF THE
PRECIP WELL E OF THE REGION...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT
THIS WAVE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND THAT PRECIP EXPANDS
ACROSS AT LEAST THE S/E HALF OF THE REGION...IF NOT EVEN FURTHER
N AND W. THIS HAS BEEN A N/W TREND IN THE ECMWF FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OVERALL TRENDS VERY CLOSELY...AS THE
ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS THAT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES POTENTIALLY CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE OFFSHORE WAVE
REMAINS SEPARATE FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE TWO COULD PHASE SHOULD THAT ENERGY DIG MORE
QUICKLY...RESULTING IN A MUCH MORE POTENT EAST COAST STORM SYSTEM.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS FOR AREAS S/E OF ALBANY FOR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX WED...AND SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO ENTITIES...THURSDAY COULD BE RATHER
BLUSTERY WITH AT LEAST SOME PASSING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
TEMPS WED-THU WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL...WITH GENERALLY UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S FOR MAX TEMPS IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD...12Z/SATURDAY. MVFR CLOUDS WILL LINGER DOWN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AT KALB THIS MORNING AND POSSIBILITY AT KPSF.

HEIGHTS WILL RISE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AT THE SURFACE. SO IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL
DECREASING CLOUD COVER.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL TIGHTEN RESULTING IN
BRISK AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY. WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST DOWN THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ACROSS THE TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES. WINDS WILL
DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...FZRA...SLEET.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK
VALLEY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH TOTAL QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

MILDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY...50S AND LOW 60S MONDAY AND 50S TUESDAY...WITH NIGHTTIME
LOWS MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BRING A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TO THE HSA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL AND MINOR SNOW MELT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS/HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...KL/SNYDER/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 211744
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1244 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH COLD AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS.  A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING SOME FREEZING RAIN...TO THE REGION
SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. A MILDER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
IN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND...BEFORE SOME RAIN ARRIVES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1243 PM EST...LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS TRANSITIONED INTO MULTI
BANDS...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NY AND ACROSS THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY
AND INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. SOME UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING IN THE SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES AS WELL. MESOSCALE MODELS AREN/T PICKING UP ON THIS
ACTIVITY...BUT WILL GENERALLY EXPECT THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA LOWERS THE INVERSION HEIGHT...AND CAUSES MUCH OF THE
LAKE EFFECT TO END. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY JUST BE
A COATING...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN THE HIGHEST SPOTS IN THE
WESTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE TACONICS/BERKSHIRES MAY SEE CLOSE TO
AN INCH.

WITH COLD 850 HPA TEMPS IN PLACE /ABOUT -14 TO -15 DEGREES
C/...GOOD MIXING WILL OCCUR. THIS WILL ALLOW NW WINDS TO BE GUSTY
AT TIMES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 KTS...ESP AT KALB...WHERE AIR
IS FUNNELED DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.

TONIGHT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE LAKE SNOW
BAND EVEN MORE...BUT IT STILL MIGHT CONTINUE AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK
TO MORE OF A WESTERLY MEAN FLOW WHICH WOULD PUT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN RIM OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOME OF THESE AREAS.

REMAINING REGIONS OF THE EASTERN NEW YORK AND ALL OF ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE DRY WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT. THE
WIND WILL LIGHTEN. THIS WILL MAKE THIS NIGHT THE BEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT OF THIS COLD SPELL THUS FAR FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF
THE ADIRONDACKS. LOOK FOR LOWS TO TUMBLE TO THE TEENS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. UP WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...LOWS WILL RANGE
5 TO 10 ABOVE. WHILE WE EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE ADIRONDACKS...IF
ENOUGH THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS WERE TO DEVELOP...SOME SNOW
SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD MAKE A RUN AT ZERO DEGREES...WHILE MOST OF
THE ADIRONDACKS WILL AVERAGE CLOSER TO 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...AFTER A COLD START...SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD START THE
DAY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE RATHER QUICKLY FROM MID MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INTENSIFIES. GIVEN
THAT WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY...AND THAT TEMPS
WILL START OFF SO COLD...WE HAVE SIDED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...MID/UPPER 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S
ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS...AND COULD REACH AREAS JUST W OF
THE HUDSON RIVER TOWARD OR JUST AFTER SUNSET. FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST P-TYPE SHOULD START AS A LIGHT SNOW/SLEET MIX
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND PERHAPS SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION.

SAT NT...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO EXPAND E/NE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
EVENING...AND PERSISTS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS WELL AS SOME
ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES. AGAIN...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT A LIGHT MIX
OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WOULD BE MOST LIKELY...ALTHOUGH COULD
CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN LATER AT NIGHT IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH AND EAST AS SFC TEMPS RISE A BIT INTO AND THROUGH THE
LOWER/MID 30S. SINCE THE GROUND IS SO COLD...THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH
ANY FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE MAINLY TRAVEL RELATED...WITH SOME LIGHT
ICING POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY AT THIS TIME...BUT IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF FREEZING RAIN...THEN FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND MOHAWK
VALLEY.

SUNDAY...MAIN THRUST OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP MAY
STILL BE ONGOING INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
THEREAFTER...DESPITE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND N OF
INTERSTATE 90...WHERE LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST. HAVE SIDED ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MOST AREAS...WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO REACH 45-50 IN VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 50S COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT SHOULD MORE SUNSHINE
BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...AND A HEALTHY SURGE OF MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
JET APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH...RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY FALL
INTO THE 30S IN THE EVENING...BEFORE RISING LATER AT NIGHT WITH
THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND WARM ADVECTION. GENERALLY ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION MON MORNING...WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MON AND PASSES THROUGH MON NT.
SO...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE MON MORNING...ESP
ACROSS N/E AREAS...TAPERING TO SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN MON NT WITH THE FROPA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SHOWERS BECOME SCATTERED MON AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW
BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. DEPENDING ON IF ANY SUN
CAN BREAK THROUGH...TEMPS COULD SURGE INTO THE 60S. FOR
NOW...GIVEN THAT IT IS NOVEMBER WITH SUCH A LOW SUN ANGLE...WE
THINK THAT AT LEAST SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY HOLD ON...AND THEREFORE
WENT A BIT COOLER THAN MOST GUIDANCE...WITH MAINLY 55-60 IN
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH
HAVE INCLUDED SOME 60-65 TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT. AGAIN...SHOULD MORE
SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR. SHOWERY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH/END AS SNOW ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD TUE AM...WITH
MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S.

TUE-TUE NT...AT THIS VANTAGE POINT...APPEARS GRADUAL COOLING COULD
COMMENCE...WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE RATHER
MILD...GENERALLY 50-55 IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TUE NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED...AS THE 00Z/21 GFS AND MOST GEFS INDICATE A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST...KEEPING MOST OF THE
PRECIP WELL E OF THE REGION...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT
THIS WAVE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND THAT PRECIP EXPANDS
ACROSS AT LEAST THE S/E HALF OF THE REGION...IF NOT EVEN FURTHER
N AND W. THIS HAS BEEN A N/W TREND IN THE ECMWF FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OVERALL TRENDS VERY CLOSELY...AS THE
ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS THAT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES POTENTIALLY CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE OFFSHORE WAVE
REMAINS SEPARATE FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE TWO COULD PHASE SHOULD THAT ENERGY DIG MORE
QUICKLY...RESULTING IN A MUCH MORE POTENT EAST COAST STORM SYSTEM.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS FOR AREAS S/E OF ALBANY FOR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX WED...AND SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO ENTITIES...THURSDAY COULD BE RATHER
BLUSTERY WITH AT LEAST SOME PASSING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
TEMPS WED-THU WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL...WITH GENERALLY UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S FOR MAX TEMPS IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD...12Z/SATURDAY. MVFR CLOUDS WILL LINGER DOWN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AT KALB THIS MORNING AND POSSIBILITY AT KPSF.

HEIGHTS WILL RISE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AT THE SURFACE. SO IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL
DECREASING CLOUD COVER.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL TIGHTEN RESULTING IN
BRISK AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY. WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST DOWN THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ACROSS THE TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES. WINDS WILL
DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...FZRA...SLEET.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK
VALLEY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH TOTAL QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

MILDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY...50S AND LOW 60S MONDAY AND 50S TUESDAY...WITH NIGHTTIME
LOWS MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BRING A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TO THE HSA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL AND MINOR SNOW MELT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS/HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...KL/SNYDER/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 211744
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1244 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH COLD AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS.  A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING SOME FREEZING RAIN...TO THE REGION
SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. A MILDER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
IN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND...BEFORE SOME RAIN ARRIVES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1243 PM EST...LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS TRANSITIONED INTO MULTI
BANDS...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NY AND ACROSS THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY
AND INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. SOME UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING IN THE SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES AS WELL. MESOSCALE MODELS AREN/T PICKING UP ON THIS
ACTIVITY...BUT WILL GENERALLY EXPECT THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA LOWERS THE INVERSION HEIGHT...AND CAUSES MUCH OF THE
LAKE EFFECT TO END. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY JUST BE
A COATING...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN THE HIGHEST SPOTS IN THE
WESTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE TACONICS/BERKSHIRES MAY SEE CLOSE TO
AN INCH.

WITH COLD 850 HPA TEMPS IN PLACE /ABOUT -14 TO -15 DEGREES
C/...GOOD MIXING WILL OCCUR. THIS WILL ALLOW NW WINDS TO BE GUSTY
AT TIMES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 KTS...ESP AT KALB...WHERE AIR
IS FUNNELED DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.

TONIGHT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE LAKE SNOW
BAND EVEN MORE...BUT IT STILL MIGHT CONTINUE AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK
TO MORE OF A WESTERLY MEAN FLOW WHICH WOULD PUT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN RIM OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOME OF THESE AREAS.

REMAINING REGIONS OF THE EASTERN NEW YORK AND ALL OF ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE DRY WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT. THE
WIND WILL LIGHTEN. THIS WILL MAKE THIS NIGHT THE BEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT OF THIS COLD SPELL THUS FAR FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF
THE ADIRONDACKS. LOOK FOR LOWS TO TUMBLE TO THE TEENS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. UP WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...LOWS WILL RANGE
5 TO 10 ABOVE. WHILE WE EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE ADIRONDACKS...IF
ENOUGH THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS WERE TO DEVELOP...SOME SNOW
SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD MAKE A RUN AT ZERO DEGREES...WHILE MOST OF
THE ADIRONDACKS WILL AVERAGE CLOSER TO 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...AFTER A COLD START...SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD START THE
DAY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE RATHER QUICKLY FROM MID MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INTENSIFIES. GIVEN
THAT WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY...AND THAT TEMPS
WILL START OFF SO COLD...WE HAVE SIDED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...MID/UPPER 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S
ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS...AND COULD REACH AREAS JUST W OF
THE HUDSON RIVER TOWARD OR JUST AFTER SUNSET. FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST P-TYPE SHOULD START AS A LIGHT SNOW/SLEET MIX
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND PERHAPS SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION.

SAT NT...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO EXPAND E/NE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
EVENING...AND PERSISTS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS WELL AS SOME
ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES. AGAIN...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT A LIGHT MIX
OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WOULD BE MOST LIKELY...ALTHOUGH COULD
CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN LATER AT NIGHT IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH AND EAST AS SFC TEMPS RISE A BIT INTO AND THROUGH THE
LOWER/MID 30S. SINCE THE GROUND IS SO COLD...THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH
ANY FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE MAINLY TRAVEL RELATED...WITH SOME LIGHT
ICING POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY AT THIS TIME...BUT IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF FREEZING RAIN...THEN FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND MOHAWK
VALLEY.

SUNDAY...MAIN THRUST OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP MAY
STILL BE ONGOING INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
THEREAFTER...DESPITE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND N OF
INTERSTATE 90...WHERE LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST. HAVE SIDED ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MOST AREAS...WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO REACH 45-50 IN VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 50S COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT SHOULD MORE SUNSHINE
BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...AND A HEALTHY SURGE OF MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
JET APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH...RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY FALL
INTO THE 30S IN THE EVENING...BEFORE RISING LATER AT NIGHT WITH
THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND WARM ADVECTION. GENERALLY ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION MON MORNING...WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MON AND PASSES THROUGH MON NT.
SO...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE MON MORNING...ESP
ACROSS N/E AREAS...TAPERING TO SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN MON NT WITH THE FROPA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SHOWERS BECOME SCATTERED MON AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW
BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. DEPENDING ON IF ANY SUN
CAN BREAK THROUGH...TEMPS COULD SURGE INTO THE 60S. FOR
NOW...GIVEN THAT IT IS NOVEMBER WITH SUCH A LOW SUN ANGLE...WE
THINK THAT AT LEAST SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY HOLD ON...AND THEREFORE
WENT A BIT COOLER THAN MOST GUIDANCE...WITH MAINLY 55-60 IN
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH
HAVE INCLUDED SOME 60-65 TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT. AGAIN...SHOULD MORE
SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR. SHOWERY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH/END AS SNOW ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD TUE AM...WITH
MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S.

TUE-TUE NT...AT THIS VANTAGE POINT...APPEARS GRADUAL COOLING COULD
COMMENCE...WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE RATHER
MILD...GENERALLY 50-55 IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TUE NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED...AS THE 00Z/21 GFS AND MOST GEFS INDICATE A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST...KEEPING MOST OF THE
PRECIP WELL E OF THE REGION...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT
THIS WAVE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND THAT PRECIP EXPANDS
ACROSS AT LEAST THE S/E HALF OF THE REGION...IF NOT EVEN FURTHER
N AND W. THIS HAS BEEN A N/W TREND IN THE ECMWF FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OVERALL TRENDS VERY CLOSELY...AS THE
ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS THAT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES POTENTIALLY CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE OFFSHORE WAVE
REMAINS SEPARATE FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE TWO COULD PHASE SHOULD THAT ENERGY DIG MORE
QUICKLY...RESULTING IN A MUCH MORE POTENT EAST COAST STORM SYSTEM.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS FOR AREAS S/E OF ALBANY FOR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX WED...AND SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO ENTITIES...THURSDAY COULD BE RATHER
BLUSTERY WITH AT LEAST SOME PASSING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
TEMPS WED-THU WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL...WITH GENERALLY UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S FOR MAX TEMPS IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD...12Z/SATURDAY. MVFR CLOUDS WILL LINGER DOWN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AT KALB THIS MORNING AND POSSIBILITY AT KPSF.

HEIGHTS WILL RISE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AT THE SURFACE. SO IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL
DECREASING CLOUD COVER.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL TIGHTEN RESULTING IN
BRISK AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY. WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST DOWN THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ACROSS THE TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES. WINDS WILL
DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...FZRA...SLEET.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK
VALLEY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH TOTAL QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

MILDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY...50S AND LOW 60S MONDAY AND 50S TUESDAY...WITH NIGHTTIME
LOWS MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BRING A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TO THE HSA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL AND MINOR SNOW MELT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS/HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...KL/SNYDER/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 211744
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1244 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH COLD AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS.  A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING SOME FREEZING RAIN...TO THE REGION
SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. A MILDER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
IN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND...BEFORE SOME RAIN ARRIVES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1243 PM EST...LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS TRANSITIONED INTO MULTI
BANDS...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NY AND ACROSS THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY
AND INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. SOME UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING IN THE SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES AS WELL. MESOSCALE MODELS AREN/T PICKING UP ON THIS
ACTIVITY...BUT WILL GENERALLY EXPECT THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA LOWERS THE INVERSION HEIGHT...AND CAUSES MUCH OF THE
LAKE EFFECT TO END. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY JUST BE
A COATING...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN THE HIGHEST SPOTS IN THE
WESTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE TACONICS/BERKSHIRES MAY SEE CLOSE TO
AN INCH.

WITH COLD 850 HPA TEMPS IN PLACE /ABOUT -14 TO -15 DEGREES
C/...GOOD MIXING WILL OCCUR. THIS WILL ALLOW NW WINDS TO BE GUSTY
AT TIMES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 KTS...ESP AT KALB...WHERE AIR
IS FUNNELED DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.

TONIGHT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE LAKE SNOW
BAND EVEN MORE...BUT IT STILL MIGHT CONTINUE AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK
TO MORE OF A WESTERLY MEAN FLOW WHICH WOULD PUT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN RIM OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOME OF THESE AREAS.

REMAINING REGIONS OF THE EASTERN NEW YORK AND ALL OF ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE DRY WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT. THE
WIND WILL LIGHTEN. THIS WILL MAKE THIS NIGHT THE BEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT OF THIS COLD SPELL THUS FAR FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF
THE ADIRONDACKS. LOOK FOR LOWS TO TUMBLE TO THE TEENS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. UP WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...LOWS WILL RANGE
5 TO 10 ABOVE. WHILE WE EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE ADIRONDACKS...IF
ENOUGH THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS WERE TO DEVELOP...SOME SNOW
SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD MAKE A RUN AT ZERO DEGREES...WHILE MOST OF
THE ADIRONDACKS WILL AVERAGE CLOSER TO 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...AFTER A COLD START...SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD START THE
DAY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE RATHER QUICKLY FROM MID MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INTENSIFIES. GIVEN
THAT WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY...AND THAT TEMPS
WILL START OFF SO COLD...WE HAVE SIDED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...MID/UPPER 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S
ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS...AND COULD REACH AREAS JUST W OF
THE HUDSON RIVER TOWARD OR JUST AFTER SUNSET. FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST P-TYPE SHOULD START AS A LIGHT SNOW/SLEET MIX
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND PERHAPS SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION.

SAT NT...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO EXPAND E/NE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
EVENING...AND PERSISTS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS WELL AS SOME
ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES. AGAIN...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT A LIGHT MIX
OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WOULD BE MOST LIKELY...ALTHOUGH COULD
CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN LATER AT NIGHT IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH AND EAST AS SFC TEMPS RISE A BIT INTO AND THROUGH THE
LOWER/MID 30S. SINCE THE GROUND IS SO COLD...THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH
ANY FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE MAINLY TRAVEL RELATED...WITH SOME LIGHT
ICING POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY AT THIS TIME...BUT IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF FREEZING RAIN...THEN FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND MOHAWK
VALLEY.

SUNDAY...MAIN THRUST OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP MAY
STILL BE ONGOING INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
THEREAFTER...DESPITE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND N OF
INTERSTATE 90...WHERE LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST. HAVE SIDED ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MOST AREAS...WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO REACH 45-50 IN VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 50S COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT SHOULD MORE SUNSHINE
BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...AND A HEALTHY SURGE OF MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
JET APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH...RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY FALL
INTO THE 30S IN THE EVENING...BEFORE RISING LATER AT NIGHT WITH
THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND WARM ADVECTION. GENERALLY ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION MON MORNING...WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MON AND PASSES THROUGH MON NT.
SO...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE MON MORNING...ESP
ACROSS N/E AREAS...TAPERING TO SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN MON NT WITH THE FROPA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SHOWERS BECOME SCATTERED MON AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW
BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. DEPENDING ON IF ANY SUN
CAN BREAK THROUGH...TEMPS COULD SURGE INTO THE 60S. FOR
NOW...GIVEN THAT IT IS NOVEMBER WITH SUCH A LOW SUN ANGLE...WE
THINK THAT AT LEAST SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY HOLD ON...AND THEREFORE
WENT A BIT COOLER THAN MOST GUIDANCE...WITH MAINLY 55-60 IN
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH
HAVE INCLUDED SOME 60-65 TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT. AGAIN...SHOULD MORE
SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR. SHOWERY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH/END AS SNOW ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD TUE AM...WITH
MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S.

TUE-TUE NT...AT THIS VANTAGE POINT...APPEARS GRADUAL COOLING COULD
COMMENCE...WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE RATHER
MILD...GENERALLY 50-55 IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TUE NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED...AS THE 00Z/21 GFS AND MOST GEFS INDICATE A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST...KEEPING MOST OF THE
PRECIP WELL E OF THE REGION...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT
THIS WAVE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND THAT PRECIP EXPANDS
ACROSS AT LEAST THE S/E HALF OF THE REGION...IF NOT EVEN FURTHER
N AND W. THIS HAS BEEN A N/W TREND IN THE ECMWF FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OVERALL TRENDS VERY CLOSELY...AS THE
ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS THAT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES POTENTIALLY CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE OFFSHORE WAVE
REMAINS SEPARATE FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE TWO COULD PHASE SHOULD THAT ENERGY DIG MORE
QUICKLY...RESULTING IN A MUCH MORE POTENT EAST COAST STORM SYSTEM.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS FOR AREAS S/E OF ALBANY FOR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX WED...AND SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO ENTITIES...THURSDAY COULD BE RATHER
BLUSTERY WITH AT LEAST SOME PASSING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
TEMPS WED-THU WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL...WITH GENERALLY UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S FOR MAX TEMPS IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD...12Z/SATURDAY. MVFR CLOUDS WILL LINGER DOWN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AT KALB THIS MORNING AND POSSIBILITY AT KPSF.

HEIGHTS WILL RISE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AT THE SURFACE. SO IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL
DECREASING CLOUD COVER.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL TIGHTEN RESULTING IN
BRISK AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY. WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST DOWN THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ACROSS THE TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES. WINDS WILL
DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...FZRA...SLEET.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK
VALLEY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH TOTAL QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

MILDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY...50S AND LOW 60S MONDAY AND 50S TUESDAY...WITH NIGHTTIME
LOWS MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BRING A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TO THE HSA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL AND MINOR SNOW MELT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS/HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...KL/SNYDER/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KBTV 211741
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1241 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY DRY TODAY WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD TODAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND ALONG
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 920 AM EST FRIDAY...BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA...HAVE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND BUMPED UP POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS NUMEROUS ALONG WESTERN
SLOPES AND ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT.
ALSO SOME SNOW SHOWERS EVIDENT ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. FROUDE
NUMBERS SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT AS DRYING
OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO A COUPLE OF INCHES
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES. STILL EXPECTING A DECREASE IN CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 20S...EVEN
COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUE THIS
MORNING...BUT INFLUX OF DRIER CANADIAN AIR WILL PUT AN END TO SNOW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE GENERALLY DIMINISHING CLOUDS
WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON,
WITH THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BEING THE LAST TO CLEAR OUT.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FILTER IN DRIER AND COLDER AIR TODAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE 20S...TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WHILE
MOST AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAIN DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS THE PERIOD WITH
THE NORTH COUNTRY IN NW TO WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY. ON
SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC,
ALLOWING FOR RETURN SW FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE SOUTH. A MILD
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COINCIDING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THE WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A
WINTRY MIX CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BUT DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF
WARM NOSE IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT MORE TO SNOW, RAIN AND SLEET
EVENT. HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT DRAWS CONCERNS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. HAVE INCLUDED WINTRY MIX WORDING
IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES BEING
THAT THIS EVENT IS OUT IN PERIOD 4 AND 5 WITH DETAILS STILL FUZZY.
ALSO TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL AFFECT
PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TO RAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST, SUNDAY WILL DRY OUT WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S, WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD
THOUGH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING LEAVING THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY.

SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MEAN
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATING ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS VFR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED
AT ALL SITES BY 00Z. CLEARING WILL BE SHORT LIVES THROUGH AS THE
FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY MORNING ALLOWING CLOUDS UPSTREAM
TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH TO MOVE BACK IN. IN GENERAL...LOOKS LIKE
IT`LL BE A MID DECK AROUND 10KFT...BUT SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL
MOVE BACK INTO KSLK AFTER MIDNIGHT TO ABOUT 13Z WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD POSSIBLE AT KMSS. AFTER 12-23Z THOUGH...ALL SITES ARE VFR
THOUGH SKY COVER INCREASES TO BKN-OVC FROM 050-100KFT.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH
SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 211741
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1241 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY DRY TODAY WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD TODAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND ALONG
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 920 AM EST FRIDAY...BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA...HAVE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND BUMPED UP POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS NUMEROUS ALONG WESTERN
SLOPES AND ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT.
ALSO SOME SNOW SHOWERS EVIDENT ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. FROUDE
NUMBERS SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT AS DRYING
OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO A COUPLE OF INCHES
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES. STILL EXPECTING A DECREASE IN CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 20S...EVEN
COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUE THIS
MORNING...BUT INFLUX OF DRIER CANADIAN AIR WILL PUT AN END TO SNOW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE GENERALLY DIMINISHING CLOUDS
WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON,
WITH THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BEING THE LAST TO CLEAR OUT.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FILTER IN DRIER AND COLDER AIR TODAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE 20S...TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WHILE
MOST AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAIN DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS THE PERIOD WITH
THE NORTH COUNTRY IN NW TO WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY. ON
SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC,
ALLOWING FOR RETURN SW FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE SOUTH. A MILD
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COINCIDING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THE WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A
WINTRY MIX CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BUT DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF
WARM NOSE IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT MORE TO SNOW, RAIN AND SLEET
EVENT. HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT DRAWS CONCERNS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. HAVE INCLUDED WINTRY MIX WORDING
IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES BEING
THAT THIS EVENT IS OUT IN PERIOD 4 AND 5 WITH DETAILS STILL FUZZY.
ALSO TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL AFFECT
PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TO RAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST, SUNDAY WILL DRY OUT WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S, WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD
THOUGH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING LEAVING THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY.

SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MEAN
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATING ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS VFR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED
AT ALL SITES BY 00Z. CLEARING WILL BE SHORT LIVES THROUGH AS THE
FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY MORNING ALLOWING CLOUDS UPSTREAM
TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH TO MOVE BACK IN. IN GENERAL...LOOKS LIKE
IT`LL BE A MID DECK AROUND 10KFT...BUT SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL
MOVE BACK INTO KSLK AFTER MIDNIGHT TO ABOUT 13Z WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD POSSIBLE AT KMSS. AFTER 12-23Z THOUGH...ALL SITES ARE VFR
THOUGH SKY COVER INCREASES TO BKN-OVC FROM 050-100KFT.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR WITH
SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AT KMSS/KSLK...SCATTERED EASTWARD. IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

18Z SUNDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY
BEFORE TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR/IFR LAKE
EFFECT POSSIBLE AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 211518
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1018 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS..
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION INCLUDING CHANCES FREEZING RAIN TO THE AREA
SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. A MILDER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE IN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE DROPPED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS HAVE DIMINISHED AND MOVE TO THE
SOUTH OF THIS AREA. WE ARE ALSO GETTING SOME UPSLOPE LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO
ADDRESS THESE AND ALSO UPDATED TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...WINDS
AND SKY COVER INTO TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WAS WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION...BRINGING A FEW FLURRIES AND CLOUDS OF ITS OWN. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL SERVE TO PUSH THE LOW LEVEL MEAN FLOW TO MORE OF
300 VECTOR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY SEND THE LAKE SNOW BAND SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN CATSKILLS LATER THIS MORNING.

THERE IS STILL A SLIM CHANCE THAT THE LAKE BAND MIGHT MAKE IT INTO
THE CAPITAL REGION...THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT THE INLAND LAKE EXTENT
OFF THE CSTAR CVIE GENERALLY WOULD INDICATE THE BAND NOT QUITE
MAKING INTO THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE VAST MAJORITY EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND WILL
REMAIN DRY WITH A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. THE WIND IN MOST CASES
HAS ABATED TO ABOUT 5 MPH...MAINLY OUT OF THE SW. TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE TEENS TO TO MID 20S...LOCALLY LOWER 20S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY BOTTOMED OUT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

THE AIR IS QUITE COLD NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE BUT ALOFT...SO WE
BELIEVE A ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY CLOUDS WILL FORM AFTER
SUNRISE...MAINLY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. ALSO...THE WIND WILL PICK
UP FROM THE NORTHWEST...GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. THERE COULD BE A FEW
INSTABILITY TYPE SNOW FLURRIES/SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE BAND.
OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FALL YET WITH
HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID 30S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY...CLOSER TO 30 NORTHERN LITCHFIELD...THE
CAPITAL REGION AND SURROUNDING AREAS. AS ONE HEADS NORTHWEST INTO
THE MOHAWK VALLEY OR NORTH OF GLENS FALLS...EASTWARD TO
VERMONT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD TO THE MID TO UPPER
20S...EXCEPT LOWER 20S OVER THE SNOW COVERED AREAS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS.

WIND CHILLS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE LAKE SNOW
BAND EVEN MORE...BUT IT STILL MIGHT CONTINUE AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK
TO MORE OF A WESTERLY MEAN FLOW WHICH WOULD PUT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN RIM OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOME OF THESE AREAS.

REMAINING REGIONS OF THE EASTERN NEW YORK AND ALL OF ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE DRY WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT. THE
WIND WILL LIGHTEN. THIS WILL MAKE THIS NIGHT THE BEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT OF THIS COLD SPELL THUS FAR FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF
THE ADIRONDACKS. LOOK FOR LOWS TO TUMBLE TO THE TEENS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. UP WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...LOWS WILL RANGE
5 TO 10 ABOVE. WHILE WE EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE ADIRONDACKS...IF
ENOUGH THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS WERE TO DEVELOP...SOME SNOW
SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD MAKE A RUN AT ZERO DEGREES...WHILE MOST OF
THE ADIRONDACKS WILL AVERAGE CLOSER TO 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...AFTER A COLD START...SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD START THE
DAY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE RATHER QUICKLY FROM MID MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INTENSIFIES. GIVEN
THAT WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY...AND THAT TEMPS
WILL START OFF SO COLD...WE HAVE SIDED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...MID/UPPER 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S
ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS...AND COULD REACH AREAS JUST W OF
THE HUDSON RIVER TOWARD OR JUST AFTER SUNSET. FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST P-TYPE SHOULD START AS A LIGHT SNOW/SLEET MIX
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND PERHAPS SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION.

SAT NT...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO EXPAND E/NE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
EVENING...AND PERSISTS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS WELL AS SOME
ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES. AGAIN...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT A LIGHT MIX
OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WOULD BE MOST LIKELY...ALTHOUGH COULD
CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN LATER AT NIGHT IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH AND EAST AS SFC TEMPS RISE A BIT INTO AND THROUGH THE
LOWER/MID 30S. SINCE THE GROUND IS SO COLD...THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH
ANY FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE MAINLY TRAVEL RELATED...WITH SOME LIGHT
ICING POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY AT THIS TIME...BUT IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF FREEZING RAIN...THEN FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND MOHAWK
VALLEY.

SUNDAY...MAIN THRUST OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP MAY
STILL BE ONGOING INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
THEREAFTER...DESPITE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND N OF
INTERSTATE 90...WHERE LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST. HAVE SIDED ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MOST AREAS...WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO REACH 45-50 IN VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 50S COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT SHOULD MORE SUNSHINE
BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...AND A HEALTHY SURGE OF MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
JET APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH...RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY FALL
INTO THE 30S IN THE EVENING...BEFORE RISING LATER AT NIGHT WITH
THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND WARM ADVECTION. GENERALLY ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION MON MORNING...WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MON AND PASSES THROUGH MON NT.
SO...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE MON MORNING...ESP
ACROSS N/E AREAS...TAPERING TO SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN MON NT WITH THE FROPA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SHOWERS BECOME SCATTERED MON AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW
BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. DEPENDING ON IF ANY SUN
CAN BREAK THROUGH...TEMPS COULD SURGE INTO THE 60S. FOR
NOW...GIVEN THAT IT IS NOVEMBER WITH SUCH A LOW SUN ANGLE...WE
THINK THAT AT LEAST SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY HOLD ON...AND THEREFORE
WENT A BIT COOLER THAN MOST GUIDANCE...WITH MAINLY 55-60 IN
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH
HAVE INCLUDED SOME 60-65 TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT. AGAIN...SHOULD MORE
SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR. SHOWERY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH/END AS SNOW ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD TUE AM...WITH
MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S.

TUE-TUE NT...AT THIS VANTAGE POINT...APPEARS GRADUAL COOLING COULD
COMMENCE...WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE RATHER
MILD...GENERALLY 50-55 IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TUE NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED...AS THE 00Z/21 GFS AND MOST GEFS INDICATE A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST...KEEPING MOST OF THE
PRECIP WELL E OF THE REGION...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT
THIS WAVE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND THAT PRECIP EXPANDS
ACROSS AT LEAST THE S/E HALF OF THE REGION...IF NOT EVEN FURTHER
N AND W. THIS HAS BEEN A N/W TREND IN THE ECMWF FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OVERALL TRENDS VERY CLOSELY...AS THE
ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS THAT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES POTENTIALLY CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE OFFSHORE WAVE
REMAINS SEPARATE FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE TWO COULD PHASE SHOULD THAT ENERGY DIG MORE
QUICKLY...RESULTING IN A MUCH MORE POTENT EAST COAST STORM SYSTEM.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS FOR AREAS S/E OF ALBANY FOR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX WED...AND SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO ENTITIES...THURSDAY COULD BE RATHER
BLUSTERY WITH AT LEAST SOME PASSING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
TEMPS WED-THU WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL...WITH GENERALLY UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S FOR MAX TEMPS IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD...12Z/SATURDAY. MVFR CLOUDS WILL LINGER DOWN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AT KALB THIS MORNING AND POSSIBILITY AT KPSF.

HEIGHTS WILL RISE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AT THE SURFACE. SO IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL
DECREASING CLOUD COVER.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL TIGHTEN RESULTING IN
BRISK AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY. WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST DOWN THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ACROSS THE TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES. WINDS WILL
DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...FZRA...SLEET.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK
VALLEY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH TOTAL QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

MILDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY...50S AND LOW 60S MONDAY AND 50S TUESDAY...WITH NIGHTTIME
LOWS MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BRING A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TO THE HSA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL AND MINOR SNOW MELT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...KL/SNYDER/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KALY 211518
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1018 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS..
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION INCLUDING CHANCES FREEZING RAIN TO THE AREA
SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. A MILDER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE IN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE DROPPED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS HAVE DIMINISHED AND MOVE TO THE
SOUTH OF THIS AREA. WE ARE ALSO GETTING SOME UPSLOPE LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO
ADDRESS THESE AND ALSO UPDATED TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...WINDS
AND SKY COVER INTO TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WAS WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION...BRINGING A FEW FLURRIES AND CLOUDS OF ITS OWN. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL SERVE TO PUSH THE LOW LEVEL MEAN FLOW TO MORE OF
300 VECTOR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY SEND THE LAKE SNOW BAND SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN CATSKILLS LATER THIS MORNING.

THERE IS STILL A SLIM CHANCE THAT THE LAKE BAND MIGHT MAKE IT INTO
THE CAPITAL REGION...THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT THE INLAND LAKE EXTENT
OFF THE CSTAR CVIE GENERALLY WOULD INDICATE THE BAND NOT QUITE
MAKING INTO THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE VAST MAJORITY EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND WILL
REMAIN DRY WITH A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. THE WIND IN MOST CASES
HAS ABATED TO ABOUT 5 MPH...MAINLY OUT OF THE SW. TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE TEENS TO TO MID 20S...LOCALLY LOWER 20S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY BOTTOMED OUT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

THE AIR IS QUITE COLD NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE BUT ALOFT...SO WE
BELIEVE A ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY CLOUDS WILL FORM AFTER
SUNRISE...MAINLY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. ALSO...THE WIND WILL PICK
UP FROM THE NORTHWEST...GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. THERE COULD BE A FEW
INSTABILITY TYPE SNOW FLURRIES/SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE BAND.
OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FALL YET WITH
HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID 30S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY...CLOSER TO 30 NORTHERN LITCHFIELD...THE
CAPITAL REGION AND SURROUNDING AREAS. AS ONE HEADS NORTHWEST INTO
THE MOHAWK VALLEY OR NORTH OF GLENS FALLS...EASTWARD TO
VERMONT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD TO THE MID TO UPPER
20S...EXCEPT LOWER 20S OVER THE SNOW COVERED AREAS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS.

WIND CHILLS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE LAKE SNOW
BAND EVEN MORE...BUT IT STILL MIGHT CONTINUE AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK
TO MORE OF A WESTERLY MEAN FLOW WHICH WOULD PUT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN RIM OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOME OF THESE AREAS.

REMAINING REGIONS OF THE EASTERN NEW YORK AND ALL OF ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE DRY WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT. THE
WIND WILL LIGHTEN. THIS WILL MAKE THIS NIGHT THE BEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT OF THIS COLD SPELL THUS FAR FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF
THE ADIRONDACKS. LOOK FOR LOWS TO TUMBLE TO THE TEENS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. UP WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...LOWS WILL RANGE
5 TO 10 ABOVE. WHILE WE EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE ADIRONDACKS...IF
ENOUGH THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS WERE TO DEVELOP...SOME SNOW
SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD MAKE A RUN AT ZERO DEGREES...WHILE MOST OF
THE ADIRONDACKS WILL AVERAGE CLOSER TO 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...AFTER A COLD START...SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD START THE
DAY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE RATHER QUICKLY FROM MID MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INTENSIFIES. GIVEN
THAT WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY...AND THAT TEMPS
WILL START OFF SO COLD...WE HAVE SIDED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...MID/UPPER 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S
ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS...AND COULD REACH AREAS JUST W OF
THE HUDSON RIVER TOWARD OR JUST AFTER SUNSET. FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST P-TYPE SHOULD START AS A LIGHT SNOW/SLEET MIX
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND PERHAPS SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION.

SAT NT...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO EXPAND E/NE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
EVENING...AND PERSISTS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS WELL AS SOME
ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES. AGAIN...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT A LIGHT MIX
OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WOULD BE MOST LIKELY...ALTHOUGH COULD
CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN LATER AT NIGHT IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH AND EAST AS SFC TEMPS RISE A BIT INTO AND THROUGH THE
LOWER/MID 30S. SINCE THE GROUND IS SO COLD...THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH
ANY FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE MAINLY TRAVEL RELATED...WITH SOME LIGHT
ICING POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY AT THIS TIME...BUT IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF FREEZING RAIN...THEN FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND MOHAWK
VALLEY.

SUNDAY...MAIN THRUST OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP MAY
STILL BE ONGOING INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
THEREAFTER...DESPITE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND N OF
INTERSTATE 90...WHERE LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST. HAVE SIDED ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MOST AREAS...WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO REACH 45-50 IN VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 50S COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT SHOULD MORE SUNSHINE
BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...AND A HEALTHY SURGE OF MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
JET APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH...RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY FALL
INTO THE 30S IN THE EVENING...BEFORE RISING LATER AT NIGHT WITH
THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND WARM ADVECTION. GENERALLY ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION MON MORNING...WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MON AND PASSES THROUGH MON NT.
SO...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE MON MORNING...ESP
ACROSS N/E AREAS...TAPERING TO SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN MON NT WITH THE FROPA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SHOWERS BECOME SCATTERED MON AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW
BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. DEPENDING ON IF ANY SUN
CAN BREAK THROUGH...TEMPS COULD SURGE INTO THE 60S. FOR
NOW...GIVEN THAT IT IS NOVEMBER WITH SUCH A LOW SUN ANGLE...WE
THINK THAT AT LEAST SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY HOLD ON...AND THEREFORE
WENT A BIT COOLER THAN MOST GUIDANCE...WITH MAINLY 55-60 IN
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH
HAVE INCLUDED SOME 60-65 TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT. AGAIN...SHOULD MORE
SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR. SHOWERY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH/END AS SNOW ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD TUE AM...WITH
MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S.

TUE-TUE NT...AT THIS VANTAGE POINT...APPEARS GRADUAL COOLING COULD
COMMENCE...WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE RATHER
MILD...GENERALLY 50-55 IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TUE NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED...AS THE 00Z/21 GFS AND MOST GEFS INDICATE A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST...KEEPING MOST OF THE
PRECIP WELL E OF THE REGION...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT
THIS WAVE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND THAT PRECIP EXPANDS
ACROSS AT LEAST THE S/E HALF OF THE REGION...IF NOT EVEN FURTHER
N AND W. THIS HAS BEEN A N/W TREND IN THE ECMWF FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OVERALL TRENDS VERY CLOSELY...AS THE
ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS THAT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES POTENTIALLY CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE OFFSHORE WAVE
REMAINS SEPARATE FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE TWO COULD PHASE SHOULD THAT ENERGY DIG MORE
QUICKLY...RESULTING IN A MUCH MORE POTENT EAST COAST STORM SYSTEM.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS FOR AREAS S/E OF ALBANY FOR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX WED...AND SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO ENTITIES...THURSDAY COULD BE RATHER
BLUSTERY WITH AT LEAST SOME PASSING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
TEMPS WED-THU WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL...WITH GENERALLY UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S FOR MAX TEMPS IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD...12Z/SATURDAY. MVFR CLOUDS WILL LINGER DOWN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AT KALB THIS MORNING AND POSSIBILITY AT KPSF.

HEIGHTS WILL RISE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AT THE SURFACE. SO IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL
DECREASING CLOUD COVER.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL TIGHTEN RESULTING IN
BRISK AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY. WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST DOWN THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ACROSS THE TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES. WINDS WILL
DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...FZRA...SLEET.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK
VALLEY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH TOTAL QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

MILDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY...50S AND LOW 60S MONDAY AND 50S TUESDAY...WITH NIGHTTIME
LOWS MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BRING A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TO THE HSA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL AND MINOR SNOW MELT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...KL/SNYDER/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KALY 211518
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1018 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS..
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION INCLUDING CHANCES FREEZING RAIN TO THE AREA
SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. A MILDER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE IN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE DROPPED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS HAVE DIMINISHED AND MOVE TO THE
SOUTH OF THIS AREA. WE ARE ALSO GETTING SOME UPSLOPE LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO
ADDRESS THESE AND ALSO UPDATED TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...WINDS
AND SKY COVER INTO TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WAS WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION...BRINGING A FEW FLURRIES AND CLOUDS OF ITS OWN. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL SERVE TO PUSH THE LOW LEVEL MEAN FLOW TO MORE OF
300 VECTOR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY SEND THE LAKE SNOW BAND SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN CATSKILLS LATER THIS MORNING.

THERE IS STILL A SLIM CHANCE THAT THE LAKE BAND MIGHT MAKE IT INTO
THE CAPITAL REGION...THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT THE INLAND LAKE EXTENT
OFF THE CSTAR CVIE GENERALLY WOULD INDICATE THE BAND NOT QUITE
MAKING INTO THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE VAST MAJORITY EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND WILL
REMAIN DRY WITH A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. THE WIND IN MOST CASES
HAS ABATED TO ABOUT 5 MPH...MAINLY OUT OF THE SW. TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE TEENS TO TO MID 20S...LOCALLY LOWER 20S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY BOTTOMED OUT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

THE AIR IS QUITE COLD NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE BUT ALOFT...SO WE
BELIEVE A ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY CLOUDS WILL FORM AFTER
SUNRISE...MAINLY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. ALSO...THE WIND WILL PICK
UP FROM THE NORTHWEST...GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. THERE COULD BE A FEW
INSTABILITY TYPE SNOW FLURRIES/SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE BAND.
OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FALL YET WITH
HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID 30S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY...CLOSER TO 30 NORTHERN LITCHFIELD...THE
CAPITAL REGION AND SURROUNDING AREAS. AS ONE HEADS NORTHWEST INTO
THE MOHAWK VALLEY OR NORTH OF GLENS FALLS...EASTWARD TO
VERMONT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD TO THE MID TO UPPER
20S...EXCEPT LOWER 20S OVER THE SNOW COVERED AREAS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS.

WIND CHILLS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE LAKE SNOW
BAND EVEN MORE...BUT IT STILL MIGHT CONTINUE AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK
TO MORE OF A WESTERLY MEAN FLOW WHICH WOULD PUT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN RIM OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOME OF THESE AREAS.

REMAINING REGIONS OF THE EASTERN NEW YORK AND ALL OF ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE DRY WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT. THE
WIND WILL LIGHTEN. THIS WILL MAKE THIS NIGHT THE BEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT OF THIS COLD SPELL THUS FAR FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF
THE ADIRONDACKS. LOOK FOR LOWS TO TUMBLE TO THE TEENS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. UP WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...LOWS WILL RANGE
5 TO 10 ABOVE. WHILE WE EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE ADIRONDACKS...IF
ENOUGH THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS WERE TO DEVELOP...SOME SNOW
SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD MAKE A RUN AT ZERO DEGREES...WHILE MOST OF
THE ADIRONDACKS WILL AVERAGE CLOSER TO 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...AFTER A COLD START...SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD START THE
DAY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE RATHER QUICKLY FROM MID MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INTENSIFIES. GIVEN
THAT WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY...AND THAT TEMPS
WILL START OFF SO COLD...WE HAVE SIDED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...MID/UPPER 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S
ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS...AND COULD REACH AREAS JUST W OF
THE HUDSON RIVER TOWARD OR JUST AFTER SUNSET. FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST P-TYPE SHOULD START AS A LIGHT SNOW/SLEET MIX
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND PERHAPS SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION.

SAT NT...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO EXPAND E/NE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
EVENING...AND PERSISTS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS WELL AS SOME
ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES. AGAIN...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT A LIGHT MIX
OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WOULD BE MOST LIKELY...ALTHOUGH COULD
CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN LATER AT NIGHT IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH AND EAST AS SFC TEMPS RISE A BIT INTO AND THROUGH THE
LOWER/MID 30S. SINCE THE GROUND IS SO COLD...THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH
ANY FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE MAINLY TRAVEL RELATED...WITH SOME LIGHT
ICING POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY AT THIS TIME...BUT IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF FREEZING RAIN...THEN FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND MOHAWK
VALLEY.

SUNDAY...MAIN THRUST OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP MAY
STILL BE ONGOING INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
THEREAFTER...DESPITE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND N OF
INTERSTATE 90...WHERE LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST. HAVE SIDED ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MOST AREAS...WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO REACH 45-50 IN VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 50S COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT SHOULD MORE SUNSHINE
BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...AND A HEALTHY SURGE OF MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
JET APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH...RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY FALL
INTO THE 30S IN THE EVENING...BEFORE RISING LATER AT NIGHT WITH
THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND WARM ADVECTION. GENERALLY ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION MON MORNING...WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MON AND PASSES THROUGH MON NT.
SO...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE MON MORNING...ESP
ACROSS N/E AREAS...TAPERING TO SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN MON NT WITH THE FROPA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SHOWERS BECOME SCATTERED MON AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW
BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. DEPENDING ON IF ANY SUN
CAN BREAK THROUGH...TEMPS COULD SURGE INTO THE 60S. FOR
NOW...GIVEN THAT IT IS NOVEMBER WITH SUCH A LOW SUN ANGLE...WE
THINK THAT AT LEAST SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY HOLD ON...AND THEREFORE
WENT A BIT COOLER THAN MOST GUIDANCE...WITH MAINLY 55-60 IN
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH
HAVE INCLUDED SOME 60-65 TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT. AGAIN...SHOULD MORE
SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR. SHOWERY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH/END AS SNOW ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD TUE AM...WITH
MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S.

TUE-TUE NT...AT THIS VANTAGE POINT...APPEARS GRADUAL COOLING COULD
COMMENCE...WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE RATHER
MILD...GENERALLY 50-55 IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TUE NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED...AS THE 00Z/21 GFS AND MOST GEFS INDICATE A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST...KEEPING MOST OF THE
PRECIP WELL E OF THE REGION...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT
THIS WAVE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND THAT PRECIP EXPANDS
ACROSS AT LEAST THE S/E HALF OF THE REGION...IF NOT EVEN FURTHER
N AND W. THIS HAS BEEN A N/W TREND IN THE ECMWF FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OVERALL TRENDS VERY CLOSELY...AS THE
ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS THAT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES POTENTIALLY CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE OFFSHORE WAVE
REMAINS SEPARATE FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE TWO COULD PHASE SHOULD THAT ENERGY DIG MORE
QUICKLY...RESULTING IN A MUCH MORE POTENT EAST COAST STORM SYSTEM.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS FOR AREAS S/E OF ALBANY FOR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX WED...AND SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO ENTITIES...THURSDAY COULD BE RATHER
BLUSTERY WITH AT LEAST SOME PASSING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
TEMPS WED-THU WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL...WITH GENERALLY UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S FOR MAX TEMPS IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD...12Z/SATURDAY. MVFR CLOUDS WILL LINGER DOWN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AT KALB THIS MORNING AND POSSIBILITY AT KPSF.

HEIGHTS WILL RISE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AT THE SURFACE. SO IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL
DECREASING CLOUD COVER.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL TIGHTEN RESULTING IN
BRISK AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY. WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST DOWN THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ACROSS THE TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES. WINDS WILL
DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...FZRA...SLEET.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK
VALLEY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH TOTAL QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

MILDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY...50S AND LOW 60S MONDAY AND 50S TUESDAY...WITH NIGHTTIME
LOWS MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BRING A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TO THE HSA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL AND MINOR SNOW MELT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...KL/SNYDER/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KALY 211518
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1018 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS..
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION INCLUDING CHANCES FREEZING RAIN TO THE AREA
SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. A MILDER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE IN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE DROPPED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS HAVE DIMINISHED AND MOVE TO THE
SOUTH OF THIS AREA. WE ARE ALSO GETTING SOME UPSLOPE LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO
ADDRESS THESE AND ALSO UPDATED TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...WINDS
AND SKY COVER INTO TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WAS WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION...BRINGING A FEW FLURRIES AND CLOUDS OF ITS OWN. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL SERVE TO PUSH THE LOW LEVEL MEAN FLOW TO MORE OF
300 VECTOR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY SEND THE LAKE SNOW BAND SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN CATSKILLS LATER THIS MORNING.

THERE IS STILL A SLIM CHANCE THAT THE LAKE BAND MIGHT MAKE IT INTO
THE CAPITAL REGION...THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT THE INLAND LAKE EXTENT
OFF THE CSTAR CVIE GENERALLY WOULD INDICATE THE BAND NOT QUITE
MAKING INTO THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE VAST MAJORITY EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND WILL
REMAIN DRY WITH A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. THE WIND IN MOST CASES
HAS ABATED TO ABOUT 5 MPH...MAINLY OUT OF THE SW. TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE TEENS TO TO MID 20S...LOCALLY LOWER 20S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY BOTTOMED OUT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

THE AIR IS QUITE COLD NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE BUT ALOFT...SO WE
BELIEVE A ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY CLOUDS WILL FORM AFTER
SUNRISE...MAINLY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. ALSO...THE WIND WILL PICK
UP FROM THE NORTHWEST...GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. THERE COULD BE A FEW
INSTABILITY TYPE SNOW FLURRIES/SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE BAND.
OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FALL YET WITH
HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID 30S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY...CLOSER TO 30 NORTHERN LITCHFIELD...THE
CAPITAL REGION AND SURROUNDING AREAS. AS ONE HEADS NORTHWEST INTO
THE MOHAWK VALLEY OR NORTH OF GLENS FALLS...EASTWARD TO
VERMONT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD TO THE MID TO UPPER
20S...EXCEPT LOWER 20S OVER THE SNOW COVERED AREAS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS.

WIND CHILLS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE LAKE SNOW
BAND EVEN MORE...BUT IT STILL MIGHT CONTINUE AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK
TO MORE OF A WESTERLY MEAN FLOW WHICH WOULD PUT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN RIM OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOME OF THESE AREAS.

REMAINING REGIONS OF THE EASTERN NEW YORK AND ALL OF ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE DRY WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT. THE
WIND WILL LIGHTEN. THIS WILL MAKE THIS NIGHT THE BEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT OF THIS COLD SPELL THUS FAR FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF
THE ADIRONDACKS. LOOK FOR LOWS TO TUMBLE TO THE TEENS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. UP WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...LOWS WILL RANGE
5 TO 10 ABOVE. WHILE WE EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE ADIRONDACKS...IF
ENOUGH THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS WERE TO DEVELOP...SOME SNOW
SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD MAKE A RUN AT ZERO DEGREES...WHILE MOST OF
THE ADIRONDACKS WILL AVERAGE CLOSER TO 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...AFTER A COLD START...SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD START THE
DAY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE RATHER QUICKLY FROM MID MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INTENSIFIES. GIVEN
THAT WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY...AND THAT TEMPS
WILL START OFF SO COLD...WE HAVE SIDED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...MID/UPPER 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S
ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS...AND COULD REACH AREAS JUST W OF
THE HUDSON RIVER TOWARD OR JUST AFTER SUNSET. FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST P-TYPE SHOULD START AS A LIGHT SNOW/SLEET MIX
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND PERHAPS SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION.

SAT NT...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO EXPAND E/NE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
EVENING...AND PERSISTS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS WELL AS SOME
ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES. AGAIN...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT A LIGHT MIX
OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WOULD BE MOST LIKELY...ALTHOUGH COULD
CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN LATER AT NIGHT IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH AND EAST AS SFC TEMPS RISE A BIT INTO AND THROUGH THE
LOWER/MID 30S. SINCE THE GROUND IS SO COLD...THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH
ANY FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE MAINLY TRAVEL RELATED...WITH SOME LIGHT
ICING POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY AT THIS TIME...BUT IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF FREEZING RAIN...THEN FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND MOHAWK
VALLEY.

SUNDAY...MAIN THRUST OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP MAY
STILL BE ONGOING INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
THEREAFTER...DESPITE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND N OF
INTERSTATE 90...WHERE LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST. HAVE SIDED ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MOST AREAS...WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO REACH 45-50 IN VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 50S COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT SHOULD MORE SUNSHINE
BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...AND A HEALTHY SURGE OF MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
JET APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH...RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY FALL
INTO THE 30S IN THE EVENING...BEFORE RISING LATER AT NIGHT WITH
THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND WARM ADVECTION. GENERALLY ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION MON MORNING...WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MON AND PASSES THROUGH MON NT.
SO...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE MON MORNING...ESP
ACROSS N/E AREAS...TAPERING TO SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN MON NT WITH THE FROPA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SHOWERS BECOME SCATTERED MON AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW
BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. DEPENDING ON IF ANY SUN
CAN BREAK THROUGH...TEMPS COULD SURGE INTO THE 60S. FOR
NOW...GIVEN THAT IT IS NOVEMBER WITH SUCH A LOW SUN ANGLE...WE
THINK THAT AT LEAST SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY HOLD ON...AND THEREFORE
WENT A BIT COOLER THAN MOST GUIDANCE...WITH MAINLY 55-60 IN
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH
HAVE INCLUDED SOME 60-65 TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT. AGAIN...SHOULD MORE
SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR. SHOWERY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH/END AS SNOW ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD TUE AM...WITH
MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S.

TUE-TUE NT...AT THIS VANTAGE POINT...APPEARS GRADUAL COOLING COULD
COMMENCE...WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE RATHER
MILD...GENERALLY 50-55 IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TUE NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED...AS THE 00Z/21 GFS AND MOST GEFS INDICATE A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST...KEEPING MOST OF THE
PRECIP WELL E OF THE REGION...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT
THIS WAVE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND THAT PRECIP EXPANDS
ACROSS AT LEAST THE S/E HALF OF THE REGION...IF NOT EVEN FURTHER
N AND W. THIS HAS BEEN A N/W TREND IN THE ECMWF FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OVERALL TRENDS VERY CLOSELY...AS THE
ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS THAT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES POTENTIALLY CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE OFFSHORE WAVE
REMAINS SEPARATE FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE TWO COULD PHASE SHOULD THAT ENERGY DIG MORE
QUICKLY...RESULTING IN A MUCH MORE POTENT EAST COAST STORM SYSTEM.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS FOR AREAS S/E OF ALBANY FOR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX WED...AND SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO ENTITIES...THURSDAY COULD BE RATHER
BLUSTERY WITH AT LEAST SOME PASSING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
TEMPS WED-THU WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL...WITH GENERALLY UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S FOR MAX TEMPS IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD...12Z/SATURDAY. MVFR CLOUDS WILL LINGER DOWN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AT KALB THIS MORNING AND POSSIBILITY AT KPSF.

HEIGHTS WILL RISE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AT THE SURFACE. SO IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL
DECREASING CLOUD COVER.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL TIGHTEN RESULTING IN
BRISK AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY. WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST DOWN THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ACROSS THE TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES. WINDS WILL
DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...FZRA...SLEET.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK
VALLEY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH TOTAL QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

MILDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY...50S AND LOW 60S MONDAY AND 50S TUESDAY...WITH NIGHTTIME
LOWS MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BRING A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TO THE HSA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL AND MINOR SNOW MELT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...KL/SNYDER/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KBTV 211426
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
926 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY DRY TODAY WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD TODAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND ALONG
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 920 AM EST FRIDAY...BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA...HAVE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND BUMPED UP POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS NUMEROUS ALONG WESTERN
SLOPES AND ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT.
ALSO SOME SNOW SHOWERS EVIDENT ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. FROUDE
NUMBERS SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT AS DRYING
OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO A COUPLE OF INCHES
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES. STILL EXPECTING A DECREASE IN CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 20S...EVEN
COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUE THIS
MORNING...BUT INFLUX OF DRIER CANADIAN AIR WILL PUT AN END TO SNOW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE GENERALLY DIMINISHING CLOUDS
WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON,
WITH THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BEING THE LAST TO CLEAR OUT.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FILTER IN DRIER AND COLDER AIR TODAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE 20S...TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WHILE
MOST AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAIN DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS THE PERIOD WITH
THE NORTH COUNTRY IN NW TO WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY. ON
SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC,
ALLOWING FOR RETURN SW FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE SOUTH. A MILD
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COINCIDING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THE WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A
WINTRY MIX CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BUT DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF
WARM NOSE IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT MORE TO SNOW, RAIN AND SLEET
EVENT. HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT DRAWS CONCERNS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. HAVE INCLUDED WINTRY MIX WORDING
IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES BEING
THAT THIS EVENT IS OUT IN PERIOD 4 AND 5 WITH DETAILS STILL FUZZY.
ALSO TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL AFFECT
PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TO RAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST, SUNDAY WILL DRY OUT WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S, WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD
THOUGH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING LEAVING THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY.

SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MEAN
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATING ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS AND VIS IN SNOW SHOWERS AT
KSLK/KMPV WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH 14-16Z, AND MVFR TO VFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING. WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TO CAUSE THIS BATCH
OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP. DRIER AND SINKING AIR FOLLOWING THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNING NORTHWEST, AND SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE DURING
DAYTIME HOURS THEN WILL SUBSIDE HEADING TOWARD 00Z. OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WINDS WILL TURN TO SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.


OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...HANSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 211426
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
926 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY DRY TODAY WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD TODAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND ALONG
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 920 AM EST FRIDAY...BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA...HAVE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND BUMPED UP POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS NUMEROUS ALONG WESTERN
SLOPES AND ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT.
ALSO SOME SNOW SHOWERS EVIDENT ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. FROUDE
NUMBERS SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT AS DRYING
OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO A COUPLE OF INCHES
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES. STILL EXPECTING A DECREASE IN CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 20S...EVEN
COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUE THIS
MORNING...BUT INFLUX OF DRIER CANADIAN AIR WILL PUT AN END TO SNOW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE GENERALLY DIMINISHING CLOUDS
WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON,
WITH THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BEING THE LAST TO CLEAR OUT.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FILTER IN DRIER AND COLDER AIR TODAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE 20S...TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WHILE
MOST AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAIN DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS THE PERIOD WITH
THE NORTH COUNTRY IN NW TO WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY. ON
SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC,
ALLOWING FOR RETURN SW FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE SOUTH. A MILD
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COINCIDING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THE WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A
WINTRY MIX CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BUT DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF
WARM NOSE IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT MORE TO SNOW, RAIN AND SLEET
EVENT. HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT DRAWS CONCERNS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. HAVE INCLUDED WINTRY MIX WORDING
IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES BEING
THAT THIS EVENT IS OUT IN PERIOD 4 AND 5 WITH DETAILS STILL FUZZY.
ALSO TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL AFFECT
PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TO RAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST, SUNDAY WILL DRY OUT WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S, WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD
THOUGH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING LEAVING THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY.

SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MEAN
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATING ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS AND VIS IN SNOW SHOWERS AT
KSLK/KMPV WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH 14-16Z, AND MVFR TO VFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING. WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TO CAUSE THIS BATCH
OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP. DRIER AND SINKING AIR FOLLOWING THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNING NORTHWEST, AND SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE DURING
DAYTIME HOURS THEN WILL SUBSIDE HEADING TOWARD 00Z. OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WINDS WILL TURN TO SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.


OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 211151
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
651 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY DRY TODAY WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD TODAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND ALONG
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 651 AM EST FRIDAY...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUE THIS MORNING...BUT INFLUX OF DRIER CANADIAN AIR WILL PUT
AN END TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE GENERALLY
DIMINISHING CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BEING THE LAST
TO CLEAR OUT.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FILTER IN DRIER AND COLDER AIR TODAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE 20S...TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WHILE
MOST AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINING DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS THE PERIOD WITH
THE NORTH COUNTRY IN NW TO WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY. ON
SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC,
ALLOWING FOR RETURN SW FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE SOUTH. A MILD
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COINCIDING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THE WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A
WINTRY MIX CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BUT DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF
WARM NOSE IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT MORE TO SNOW, RAIN AND SLEET
EVENT. HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT DRAWS CONCERNS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. HAVE INCLUDED WINTRY MIX WORDING
IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES BEING
THAT THIS EVENT IS OUT IN PERIOD 4 AND 5 WITH DETAILS STILL FUZZY.
ALSO TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL AFFECT
PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TO RAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST, SUNDAY WILL DRY OUT WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S, WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD
THOUGH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING LEAVING THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY.

SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MEAN
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATING ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS AND VIS IN SNOW SHOWERS AT
KSLK/KMPV WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH 14-16Z, AND MVFR TO VFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING. WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TO CAUSE THIS BATCH
OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP. DRIER AND SINKING AIR FOLLOWING THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNING NORTHWEST, AND SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE DURING
DAYTIME HOURS THEN WILL SUBSIDE HEADING TOWARD 00Z. OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WINDS WILL TURN TO SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.


OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 211151
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
651 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY DRY TODAY WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD TODAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND ALONG
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 651 AM EST FRIDAY...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUE THIS MORNING...BUT INFLUX OF DRIER CANADIAN AIR WILL PUT
AN END TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE GENERALLY
DIMINISHING CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BEING THE LAST
TO CLEAR OUT.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FILTER IN DRIER AND COLDER AIR TODAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE 20S...TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WHILE
MOST AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY REMAINING DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS THE PERIOD WITH
THE NORTH COUNTRY IN NW TO WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY. ON
SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC,
ALLOWING FOR RETURN SW FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE SOUTH. A MILD
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COINCIDING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THE WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A
WINTRY MIX CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BUT DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF
WARM NOSE IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT MORE TO SNOW, RAIN AND SLEET
EVENT. HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT DRAWS CONCERNS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. HAVE INCLUDED WINTRY MIX WORDING
IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES BEING
THAT THIS EVENT IS OUT IN PERIOD 4 AND 5 WITH DETAILS STILL FUZZY.
ALSO TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL AFFECT
PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TO RAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST, SUNDAY WILL DRY OUT WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S, WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD
THOUGH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING LEAVING THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY.

SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MEAN
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATING ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS AND VIS IN SNOW SHOWERS AT
KSLK/KMPV WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH 14-16Z, AND MVFR TO VFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING. WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TO CAUSE THIS BATCH
OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP. DRIER AND SINKING AIR FOLLOWING THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNING NORTHWEST, AND SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE DURING
DAYTIME HOURS THEN WILL SUBSIDE HEADING TOWARD 00Z. OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WINDS WILL TURN TO SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.


OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...HANSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 211141
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
641 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY DRY TODAY WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD TODAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND ALONG
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 422 AM EST FRIDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FILTER IN DRIER
AND COLDER AIR TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE
20S...TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WHILE MOST AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY REMAINING DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS THE PERIOD WITH
THE NORTH COUNTRY IN NW TO WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY. ON
SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC,
ALLOWING FOR RETURN SW FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE SOUTH. A MILD
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COINCIDING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THE WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A
WINTRY MIX CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BUT DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF
WARM NOSE IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT MORE TO SNOW, RAIN AND SLEET
EVENT. HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT DRAWS CONCERNS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. HAVE INCLUDED WINTRY MIX WORDING
IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES BEING
THAT THIS EVENT IS OUT IN PERIOD 4 AND 5 WITH DETAILS STILL FUZZY.
ALSO TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL AFFECT
PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TO RAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST, SUNDAY WILL DRY OUT WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S, WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD
THOUGH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING LEAVING THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY.

SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MEAN
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATING ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS AND VIS IN SNOWSHOWERS AT
KSLK/KMPV WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH 14-16Z, AND MVFR TO VFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING. WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TO CAUSE THIS BATCH
OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP. DRIER AND SINKING AIR FOLLOWING THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNING NORTHWEST, AND SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE DURING
DAYTIME HOURS THEN WILL SUBSIDE HEADING TOWARD 00Z. OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WINDS WILL TURN TO SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.


OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON/KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...HANSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 211141
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
641 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY DRY TODAY WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD TODAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND ALONG
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 422 AM EST FRIDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FILTER IN DRIER
AND COLDER AIR TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE
20S...TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WHILE MOST AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY REMAINING DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS THE PERIOD WITH
THE NORTH COUNTRY IN NW TO WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY. ON
SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC,
ALLOWING FOR RETURN SW FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE SOUTH. A MILD
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COINCIDING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THE WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A
WINTRY MIX CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BUT DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF
WARM NOSE IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT MORE TO SNOW, RAIN AND SLEET
EVENT. HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT DRAWS CONCERNS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. HAVE INCLUDED WINTRY MIX WORDING
IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES BEING
THAT THIS EVENT IS OUT IN PERIOD 4 AND 5 WITH DETAILS STILL FUZZY.
ALSO TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL AFFECT
PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TO RAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST, SUNDAY WILL DRY OUT WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S, WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD
THOUGH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING LEAVING THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY.

SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MEAN
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATING ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS AND VIS IN SNOWSHOWERS AT
KSLK/KMPV WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH 14-16Z, AND MVFR TO VFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING. WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TO CAUSE THIS BATCH
OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP. DRIER AND SINKING AIR FOLLOWING THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNING NORTHWEST, AND SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE DURING
DAYTIME HOURS THEN WILL SUBSIDE HEADING TOWARD 00Z. OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WINDS WILL TURN TO SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.


OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON/KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...HANSON




000
FXUS61 KALY 211058
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
559 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.  A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A MILDER AIR MASS
BUILDS IN TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS PF 530 AM EST...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY CONTINUED FOR
SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. THE LAKE BAND HAS ACTUALLY SLIPPED EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH...WEAKENING...TRYING TO WORK INTO SCHOHARIE COUNTY.

FOR THIS UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...JUST MINOR TWEAKING OF
HOURLY GRIDS.

WE WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY SINCE SOME LAKE EFFECT IS STILL FALLING
AND THERE IS A CHANCE THE BAND COULD BRIEFLY "PULSE" AS THERE ARE
SOME GREENS (DBZ VALUES OVER 20) DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OF SOUTHERN
HERKIMER COUNTY INDICATING POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WAS WORKING ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING A
FEW FLURRIES AND CLOUDS OF ITS OWN. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL SERVE TO
PUSH THE LOW LEVEL MEAN FLOW TO MORE OF 300 VECTOR...WHICH WILL
ULTIMATELY SEND THE LAKE SNOW BAND SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CATSKILLS
LATER THIS MORNING.

THERE IS STILL A SLIM CHANCE THAT THE LAKE BAND MIGHT MAKE IT INTO
THE CAPITAL REGION...THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT THE INLAND LAKE EXTENT
OFF THE CSTAR CVIE GENERALLY WOULD INDICATE THE BAND NOT QUITE
MAKING INTO THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE VAST MAJORITY EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND WILL
REMAIN DRY WITH A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. THE WIND IN MOST CASES
HAS ABATED TO ABOUT 5 MPH...MAINLY OUT OF THE SW. TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE TEENS TO TO MID 20S...LOCALLY LOWER 20S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY BOTTOMED OUT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.


THE AIR IS QUITE COLD NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE BUT ALOFT...SO WE
BELIEVE A ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY CLOUDS WILL FORM AFTER
SUNRISE...MAINLY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. ALSO...THE WIND WILL PICK UP
FROM THE NORTHWEST...GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. THERE COULD BE A FEW
INSTABILITY TYPE SNOW FLURRIES/SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE BAND.
OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FALL YET WITH HIGHS
ONLY REACHING THE MID 30S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY...CLOSER TO 30 NORTHERN LITCHFIELD...THE CAPITAL
REGION AND SURROUNDING AREAS. AS ONE HEADS NORTHWEST INTO THE MOHAWK
VALLEY OR NORTH OF GLENS FALLS...EASTWARD TO VERMONT...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S...EXCEPT LOWER 20S
OVER THE SNOW COVERED AREAS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

WIND CHILLS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE LAKE SNOW
BAND EVEN MORE...BUT IT STILL MIGHT CONTINUE AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK
TO MORE OF A WESTERLY MEAN FLOW WHICH WOULD PUT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN RIM OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOME OF THESE AREAS.

REMAINING REGIONS OF THE EASTERN NEW YORK AND ALL OF ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE DRY WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT. THE
WIND WILL LIGHTEN. THIS WILL MAKE THIS NIGHT THE BEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT OF THIS COLD SPELL THUS FAR FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF
THE ADIRONDACKS. LOOK FOR LOWS TO TUMBLE TO THE TEENS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. UP WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...LOWS WILL RANGE
5 TO 10 ABOVE. WHILE WE EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE ADIRONDACKS...IF
ENOUGH THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS WERE TO DEVELOP...SOME SNOW
SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD MAKE A RUN AT ZERO DEGREES...WHILE MOST OF
THE ADIRONDACKS WILL AVERAGE CLOSER TO 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...AFTER A COLD START...SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD START THE
DAY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE RATHER QUICKLY FROM MID MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INTENSIFIES. GIVEN
THAT WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY...AND THAT TEMPS
WILL START OFF SO COLD...WE HAVE SIDED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...MID/UPPER 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S
ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS...AND COULD REACH AREAS JUST W OF
THE HUDSON RIVER TOWARD OR JUST AFTER SUNSET. FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST P-TYPE SHOULD START AS A LIGHT SNOW/SLEET MIX
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND PERHAPS SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION.

SAT NT...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO EXPAND E/NE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
EVENING...AND PERSISTS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS WELL AS SOME
ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES. AGAIN...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT A LIGHT MIX
OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WOULD BE MOST LIKELY...ALTHOUGH COULD
CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN LATER AT NIGHT IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH AND EAST AS SFC TEMPS RISE A BIT INTO AND THROUGH THE
LOWER/MID 30S. SINCE THE GROUND IS SO COLD...THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH
ANY FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE MAINLY TRAVEL RELATED...WITH SOME LIGHT
ICING POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY AT THIS TIME...BUT IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF FREEZING RAIN...THEN FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND MOHAWK
VALLEY.

SUNDAY...MAIN THRUST OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP MAY
STILL BE ONGOING INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
THEREAFTER...DESPITE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND N OF
INTERSTATE 90...WHERE LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST. HAVE SIDED ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MOST AREAS...WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO REACH 45-50 IN VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 50S COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT SHOULD MORE SUNSHINE
BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...AND A HEALTHY SURGE OF MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
JET APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH...RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY FALL
INTO THE 30S IN THE EVENING...BEFORE RISING LATER AT NIGHT WITH
THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND WARM ADVECTION. GENERALLY ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION MON MORNING...WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MON AND PASSES THROUGH MON NT.
SO...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE MON MORNING...ESP
ACROSS N/E AREAS...TAPERING TO SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN MON NT WITH THE FROPA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SHOWERS BECOME SCATTERED MON AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW
BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. DEPENDING ON IF ANY SUN
CAN BREAK THROUGH...TEMPS COULD SURGE INTO THE 60S. FOR
NOW...GIVEN THAT IT IS NOVEMBER WITH SUCH A LOW SUN ANGLE...WE
THINK THAT AT LEAST SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY HOLD ON...AND THEREFORE
WENT A BIT COOLER THAN MOST GUIDANCE...WITH MAINLY 55-60 IN
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH
HAVE INCLUDED SOME 60-65 TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT. AGAIN...SHOULD MORE
SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR. SHOWERY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH/END AS SNOW ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD TUE AM...WITH
MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S.

TUE-TUE NT...AT THIS VANTAGE POINT...APPEARS GRADUAL COOLING COULD
COMMENCE...WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE RATHER
MILD...GENERALLY 50-55 IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TUE NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED...AS THE 00Z/21 GFS AND MOST GEFS INDICATE A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST...KEEPING MOST OF THE
PRECIP WELL E OF THE REGION...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT
THIS WAVE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND THAT PRECIP EXPANDS
ACROSS AT LEAST THE S/E HALF OF THE REGION...IF NOT EVEN FURTHER
N AND W. THIS HAS BEEN A N/W TREND IN THE ECMWF FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OVERALL TRENDS VERY CLOSELY...AS THE
ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS THAT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES POTENTIALLY CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE OFFSHORE WAVE
REMAINS SEPARATE FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE TWO COULD PHASE SHOULD THAT ENERGY DIG MORE
QUICKLY...RESULTING IN A MUCH MORE POTENT EAST COAST STORM SYSTEM.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS FOR AREAS S/E OF ALBANY FOR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX WED...AND SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO ENTITIES...THURSDAY COULD BE RATHER
BLUSTERY WITH AT LEAST SOME PASSING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
TEMPS WED-THU WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL...WITH GENERALLY UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S FOR MAX TEMPS IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE IS STILL THE OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IF A LAKE BAND OFF ONTARIO SWINGS SOUTH AND COULD BRIEFLY
IMPACT THE KALB THROUGH THE MORNING PEAK. WE ASSIGNED A VCSH TO THE
AIRPORT ONLY.

AS THE FLOW ALIGNS ITSELF MORE DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE AIR IS
COLD ALOFT...EXPECT SOME STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS TO FORM GENERALLY
4000-5000 FEET OFF THE DECK ALONG WITH A GUSTY WIND...UP TO 25KTS AT
KALB AND KPSF.

THIS WIND WILL DIMINISH TOWARD DARK AND THE INSTABILITY CLOUDS
SHOULD DISSIPATE LEAVING US WITH A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH MUCH LESS
WIND.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT OF A PM WINTRY MIX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
RA...FZRA...SLEET. SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK
VALLEY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH TOTAL QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

MILDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY...50S AND LOW 60S MONDAY AND 50S TUESDAY...WITH NIGHTTIME
LOWS MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BRING A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TO THE HSA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL AND MINOR SNOW MELT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...KL/SNYDER/WASULA









000
FXUS61 KALY 211058
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
559 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.  A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A MILDER AIR MASS
BUILDS IN TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS PF 530 AM EST...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY CONTINUED FOR
SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. THE LAKE BAND HAS ACTUALLY SLIPPED EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH...WEAKENING...TRYING TO WORK INTO SCHOHARIE COUNTY.

FOR THIS UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...JUST MINOR TWEAKING OF
HOURLY GRIDS.

WE WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY SINCE SOME LAKE EFFECT IS STILL FALLING
AND THERE IS A CHANCE THE BAND COULD BRIEFLY "PULSE" AS THERE ARE
SOME GREENS (DBZ VALUES OVER 20) DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OF SOUTHERN
HERKIMER COUNTY INDICATING POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WAS WORKING ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING A
FEW FLURRIES AND CLOUDS OF ITS OWN. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL SERVE TO
PUSH THE LOW LEVEL MEAN FLOW TO MORE OF 300 VECTOR...WHICH WILL
ULTIMATELY SEND THE LAKE SNOW BAND SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CATSKILLS
LATER THIS MORNING.

THERE IS STILL A SLIM CHANCE THAT THE LAKE BAND MIGHT MAKE IT INTO
THE CAPITAL REGION...THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT THE INLAND LAKE EXTENT
OFF THE CSTAR CVIE GENERALLY WOULD INDICATE THE BAND NOT QUITE
MAKING INTO THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE VAST MAJORITY EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND WILL
REMAIN DRY WITH A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. THE WIND IN MOST CASES
HAS ABATED TO ABOUT 5 MPH...MAINLY OUT OF THE SW. TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE TEENS TO TO MID 20S...LOCALLY LOWER 20S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY BOTTOMED OUT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.


THE AIR IS QUITE COLD NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE BUT ALOFT...SO WE
BELIEVE A ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY CLOUDS WILL FORM AFTER
SUNRISE...MAINLY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. ALSO...THE WIND WILL PICK UP
FROM THE NORTHWEST...GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. THERE COULD BE A FEW
INSTABILITY TYPE SNOW FLURRIES/SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE BAND.
OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FALL YET WITH HIGHS
ONLY REACHING THE MID 30S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY...CLOSER TO 30 NORTHERN LITCHFIELD...THE CAPITAL
REGION AND SURROUNDING AREAS. AS ONE HEADS NORTHWEST INTO THE MOHAWK
VALLEY OR NORTH OF GLENS FALLS...EASTWARD TO VERMONT...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S...EXCEPT LOWER 20S
OVER THE SNOW COVERED AREAS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

WIND CHILLS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE LAKE SNOW
BAND EVEN MORE...BUT IT STILL MIGHT CONTINUE AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK
TO MORE OF A WESTERLY MEAN FLOW WHICH WOULD PUT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN RIM OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOME OF THESE AREAS.

REMAINING REGIONS OF THE EASTERN NEW YORK AND ALL OF ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE DRY WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT. THE
WIND WILL LIGHTEN. THIS WILL MAKE THIS NIGHT THE BEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT OF THIS COLD SPELL THUS FAR FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF
THE ADIRONDACKS. LOOK FOR LOWS TO TUMBLE TO THE TEENS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. UP WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...LOWS WILL RANGE
5 TO 10 ABOVE. WHILE WE EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE ADIRONDACKS...IF
ENOUGH THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS WERE TO DEVELOP...SOME SNOW
SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD MAKE A RUN AT ZERO DEGREES...WHILE MOST OF
THE ADIRONDACKS WILL AVERAGE CLOSER TO 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...AFTER A COLD START...SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD START THE
DAY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE RATHER QUICKLY FROM MID MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INTENSIFIES. GIVEN
THAT WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY...AND THAT TEMPS
WILL START OFF SO COLD...WE HAVE SIDED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...MID/UPPER 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S
ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS...AND COULD REACH AREAS JUST W OF
THE HUDSON RIVER TOWARD OR JUST AFTER SUNSET. FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST P-TYPE SHOULD START AS A LIGHT SNOW/SLEET MIX
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND PERHAPS SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION.

SAT NT...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO EXPAND E/NE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
EVENING...AND PERSISTS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS WELL AS SOME
ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES. AGAIN...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT A LIGHT MIX
OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WOULD BE MOST LIKELY...ALTHOUGH COULD
CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN LATER AT NIGHT IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH AND EAST AS SFC TEMPS RISE A BIT INTO AND THROUGH THE
LOWER/MID 30S. SINCE THE GROUND IS SO COLD...THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH
ANY FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE MAINLY TRAVEL RELATED...WITH SOME LIGHT
ICING POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY AT THIS TIME...BUT IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF FREEZING RAIN...THEN FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND MOHAWK
VALLEY.

SUNDAY...MAIN THRUST OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP MAY
STILL BE ONGOING INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
THEREAFTER...DESPITE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND N OF
INTERSTATE 90...WHERE LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST. HAVE SIDED ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MOST AREAS...WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO REACH 45-50 IN VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 50S COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT SHOULD MORE SUNSHINE
BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...AND A HEALTHY SURGE OF MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
JET APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH...RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY FALL
INTO THE 30S IN THE EVENING...BEFORE RISING LATER AT NIGHT WITH
THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND WARM ADVECTION. GENERALLY ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION MON MORNING...WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MON AND PASSES THROUGH MON NT.
SO...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE MON MORNING...ESP
ACROSS N/E AREAS...TAPERING TO SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN MON NT WITH THE FROPA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SHOWERS BECOME SCATTERED MON AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW
BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. DEPENDING ON IF ANY SUN
CAN BREAK THROUGH...TEMPS COULD SURGE INTO THE 60S. FOR
NOW...GIVEN THAT IT IS NOVEMBER WITH SUCH A LOW SUN ANGLE...WE
THINK THAT AT LEAST SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY HOLD ON...AND THEREFORE
WENT A BIT COOLER THAN MOST GUIDANCE...WITH MAINLY 55-60 IN
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH
HAVE INCLUDED SOME 60-65 TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT. AGAIN...SHOULD MORE
SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR. SHOWERY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH/END AS SNOW ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD TUE AM...WITH
MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S.

TUE-TUE NT...AT THIS VANTAGE POINT...APPEARS GRADUAL COOLING COULD
COMMENCE...WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE RATHER
MILD...GENERALLY 50-55 IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TUE NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED...AS THE 00Z/21 GFS AND MOST GEFS INDICATE A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST...KEEPING MOST OF THE
PRECIP WELL E OF THE REGION...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT
THIS WAVE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND THAT PRECIP EXPANDS
ACROSS AT LEAST THE S/E HALF OF THE REGION...IF NOT EVEN FURTHER
N AND W. THIS HAS BEEN A N/W TREND IN THE ECMWF FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OVERALL TRENDS VERY CLOSELY...AS THE
ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS THAT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES POTENTIALLY CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE OFFSHORE WAVE
REMAINS SEPARATE FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE TWO COULD PHASE SHOULD THAT ENERGY DIG MORE
QUICKLY...RESULTING IN A MUCH MORE POTENT EAST COAST STORM SYSTEM.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS FOR AREAS S/E OF ALBANY FOR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX WED...AND SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO ENTITIES...THURSDAY COULD BE RATHER
BLUSTERY WITH AT LEAST SOME PASSING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
TEMPS WED-THU WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL...WITH GENERALLY UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S FOR MAX TEMPS IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE IS STILL THE OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IF A LAKE BAND OFF ONTARIO SWINGS SOUTH AND COULD BRIEFLY
IMPACT THE KALB THROUGH THE MORNING PEAK. WE ASSIGNED A VCSH TO THE
AIRPORT ONLY.

AS THE FLOW ALIGNS ITSELF MORE DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE AIR IS
COLD ALOFT...EXPECT SOME STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS TO FORM GENERALLY
4000-5000 FEET OFF THE DECK ALONG WITH A GUSTY WIND...UP TO 25KTS AT
KALB AND KPSF.

THIS WIND WILL DIMINISH TOWARD DARK AND THE INSTABILITY CLOUDS
SHOULD DISSIPATE LEAVING US WITH A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH MUCH LESS
WIND.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT OF A PM WINTRY MIX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
RA...FZRA...SLEET. SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK
VALLEY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH TOTAL QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

MILDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY...50S AND LOW 60S MONDAY AND 50S TUESDAY...WITH NIGHTTIME
LOWS MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BRING A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TO THE HSA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL AND MINOR SNOW MELT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...KL/SNYDER/WASULA









000
FXUS61 KALY 211058
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
559 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.  A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A MILDER AIR MASS
BUILDS IN TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS PF 530 AM EST...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY CONTINUED FOR
SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. THE LAKE BAND HAS ACTUALLY SLIPPED EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH...WEAKENING...TRYING TO WORK INTO SCHOHARIE COUNTY.

FOR THIS UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...JUST MINOR TWEAKING OF
HOURLY GRIDS.

WE WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY SINCE SOME LAKE EFFECT IS STILL FALLING
AND THERE IS A CHANCE THE BAND COULD BRIEFLY "PULSE" AS THERE ARE
SOME GREENS (DBZ VALUES OVER 20) DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OF SOUTHERN
HERKIMER COUNTY INDICATING POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WAS WORKING ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING A
FEW FLURRIES AND CLOUDS OF ITS OWN. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL SERVE TO
PUSH THE LOW LEVEL MEAN FLOW TO MORE OF 300 VECTOR...WHICH WILL
ULTIMATELY SEND THE LAKE SNOW BAND SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CATSKILLS
LATER THIS MORNING.

THERE IS STILL A SLIM CHANCE THAT THE LAKE BAND MIGHT MAKE IT INTO
THE CAPITAL REGION...THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT THE INLAND LAKE EXTENT
OFF THE CSTAR CVIE GENERALLY WOULD INDICATE THE BAND NOT QUITE
MAKING INTO THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE VAST MAJORITY EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND WILL
REMAIN DRY WITH A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. THE WIND IN MOST CASES
HAS ABATED TO ABOUT 5 MPH...MAINLY OUT OF THE SW. TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE TEENS TO TO MID 20S...LOCALLY LOWER 20S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY BOTTOMED OUT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.


THE AIR IS QUITE COLD NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE BUT ALOFT...SO WE
BELIEVE A ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY CLOUDS WILL FORM AFTER
SUNRISE...MAINLY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. ALSO...THE WIND WILL PICK UP
FROM THE NORTHWEST...GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. THERE COULD BE A FEW
INSTABILITY TYPE SNOW FLURRIES/SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE BAND.
OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FALL YET WITH HIGHS
ONLY REACHING THE MID 30S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY...CLOSER TO 30 NORTHERN LITCHFIELD...THE CAPITAL
REGION AND SURROUNDING AREAS. AS ONE HEADS NORTHWEST INTO THE MOHAWK
VALLEY OR NORTH OF GLENS FALLS...EASTWARD TO VERMONT...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S...EXCEPT LOWER 20S
OVER THE SNOW COVERED AREAS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

WIND CHILLS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE LAKE SNOW
BAND EVEN MORE...BUT IT STILL MIGHT CONTINUE AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK
TO MORE OF A WESTERLY MEAN FLOW WHICH WOULD PUT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN RIM OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOME OF THESE AREAS.

REMAINING REGIONS OF THE EASTERN NEW YORK AND ALL OF ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE DRY WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT. THE
WIND WILL LIGHTEN. THIS WILL MAKE THIS NIGHT THE BEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT OF THIS COLD SPELL THUS FAR FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF
THE ADIRONDACKS. LOOK FOR LOWS TO TUMBLE TO THE TEENS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. UP WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...LOWS WILL RANGE
5 TO 10 ABOVE. WHILE WE EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE ADIRONDACKS...IF
ENOUGH THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS WERE TO DEVELOP...SOME SNOW
SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD MAKE A RUN AT ZERO DEGREES...WHILE MOST OF
THE ADIRONDACKS WILL AVERAGE CLOSER TO 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...AFTER A COLD START...SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD START THE
DAY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE RATHER QUICKLY FROM MID MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INTENSIFIES. GIVEN
THAT WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY...AND THAT TEMPS
WILL START OFF SO COLD...WE HAVE SIDED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...MID/UPPER 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S
ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS...AND COULD REACH AREAS JUST W OF
THE HUDSON RIVER TOWARD OR JUST AFTER SUNSET. FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST P-TYPE SHOULD START AS A LIGHT SNOW/SLEET MIX
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND PERHAPS SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION.

SAT NT...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO EXPAND E/NE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
EVENING...AND PERSISTS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS WELL AS SOME
ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES. AGAIN...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT A LIGHT MIX
OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WOULD BE MOST LIKELY...ALTHOUGH COULD
CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN LATER AT NIGHT IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH AND EAST AS SFC TEMPS RISE A BIT INTO AND THROUGH THE
LOWER/MID 30S. SINCE THE GROUND IS SO COLD...THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH
ANY FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE MAINLY TRAVEL RELATED...WITH SOME LIGHT
ICING POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY AT THIS TIME...BUT IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF FREEZING RAIN...THEN FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND MOHAWK
VALLEY.

SUNDAY...MAIN THRUST OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP MAY
STILL BE ONGOING INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
THEREAFTER...DESPITE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND N OF
INTERSTATE 90...WHERE LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST. HAVE SIDED ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MOST AREAS...WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO REACH 45-50 IN VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 50S COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT SHOULD MORE SUNSHINE
BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...AND A HEALTHY SURGE OF MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
JET APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH...RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY FALL
INTO THE 30S IN THE EVENING...BEFORE RISING LATER AT NIGHT WITH
THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND WARM ADVECTION. GENERALLY ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION MON MORNING...WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MON AND PASSES THROUGH MON NT.
SO...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE MON MORNING...ESP
ACROSS N/E AREAS...TAPERING TO SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN MON NT WITH THE FROPA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SHOWERS BECOME SCATTERED MON AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW
BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. DEPENDING ON IF ANY SUN
CAN BREAK THROUGH...TEMPS COULD SURGE INTO THE 60S. FOR
NOW...GIVEN THAT IT IS NOVEMBER WITH SUCH A LOW SUN ANGLE...WE
THINK THAT AT LEAST SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY HOLD ON...AND THEREFORE
WENT A BIT COOLER THAN MOST GUIDANCE...WITH MAINLY 55-60 IN
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH
HAVE INCLUDED SOME 60-65 TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT. AGAIN...SHOULD MORE
SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR. SHOWERY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH/END AS SNOW ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD TUE AM...WITH
MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S.

TUE-TUE NT...AT THIS VANTAGE POINT...APPEARS GRADUAL COOLING COULD
COMMENCE...WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE RATHER
MILD...GENERALLY 50-55 IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TUE NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED...AS THE 00Z/21 GFS AND MOST GEFS INDICATE A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST...KEEPING MOST OF THE
PRECIP WELL E OF THE REGION...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT
THIS WAVE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND THAT PRECIP EXPANDS
ACROSS AT LEAST THE S/E HALF OF THE REGION...IF NOT EVEN FURTHER
N AND W. THIS HAS BEEN A N/W TREND IN THE ECMWF FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OVERALL TRENDS VERY CLOSELY...AS THE
ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS THAT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES POTENTIALLY CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE OFFSHORE WAVE
REMAINS SEPARATE FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE TWO COULD PHASE SHOULD THAT ENERGY DIG MORE
QUICKLY...RESULTING IN A MUCH MORE POTENT EAST COAST STORM SYSTEM.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS FOR AREAS S/E OF ALBANY FOR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX WED...AND SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO ENTITIES...THURSDAY COULD BE RATHER
BLUSTERY WITH AT LEAST SOME PASSING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
TEMPS WED-THU WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL...WITH GENERALLY UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S FOR MAX TEMPS IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE IS STILL THE OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IF A LAKE BAND OFF ONTARIO SWINGS SOUTH AND COULD BRIEFLY
IMPACT THE KALB THROUGH THE MORNING PEAK. WE ASSIGNED A VCSH TO THE
AIRPORT ONLY.

AS THE FLOW ALIGNS ITSELF MORE DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE AIR IS
COLD ALOFT...EXPECT SOME STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS TO FORM GENERALLY
4000-5000 FEET OFF THE DECK ALONG WITH A GUSTY WIND...UP TO 25KTS AT
KALB AND KPSF.

THIS WIND WILL DIMINISH TOWARD DARK AND THE INSTABILITY CLOUDS
SHOULD DISSIPATE LEAVING US WITH A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH MUCH LESS
WIND.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT OF A PM WINTRY MIX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
RA...FZRA...SLEET. SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK
VALLEY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH TOTAL QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

MILDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY...50S AND LOW 60S MONDAY AND 50S TUESDAY...WITH NIGHTTIME
LOWS MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BRING A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TO THE HSA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL AND MINOR SNOW MELT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...KL/SNYDER/WASULA









000
FXUS61 KALY 211058
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
559 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.  A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A MILDER AIR MASS
BUILDS IN TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS PF 530 AM EST...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY CONTINUED FOR
SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. THE LAKE BAND HAS ACTUALLY SLIPPED EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH...WEAKENING...TRYING TO WORK INTO SCHOHARIE COUNTY.

FOR THIS UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...JUST MINOR TWEAKING OF
HOURLY GRIDS.

WE WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY SINCE SOME LAKE EFFECT IS STILL FALLING
AND THERE IS A CHANCE THE BAND COULD BRIEFLY "PULSE" AS THERE ARE
SOME GREENS (DBZ VALUES OVER 20) DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OF SOUTHERN
HERKIMER COUNTY INDICATING POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WAS WORKING ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING A
FEW FLURRIES AND CLOUDS OF ITS OWN. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL SERVE TO
PUSH THE LOW LEVEL MEAN FLOW TO MORE OF 300 VECTOR...WHICH WILL
ULTIMATELY SEND THE LAKE SNOW BAND SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CATSKILLS
LATER THIS MORNING.

THERE IS STILL A SLIM CHANCE THAT THE LAKE BAND MIGHT MAKE IT INTO
THE CAPITAL REGION...THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT THE INLAND LAKE EXTENT
OFF THE CSTAR CVIE GENERALLY WOULD INDICATE THE BAND NOT QUITE
MAKING INTO THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE VAST MAJORITY EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND WILL
REMAIN DRY WITH A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. THE WIND IN MOST CASES
HAS ABATED TO ABOUT 5 MPH...MAINLY OUT OF THE SW. TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE TEENS TO TO MID 20S...LOCALLY LOWER 20S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY BOTTOMED OUT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.


THE AIR IS QUITE COLD NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE BUT ALOFT...SO WE
BELIEVE A ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY CLOUDS WILL FORM AFTER
SUNRISE...MAINLY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. ALSO...THE WIND WILL PICK UP
FROM THE NORTHWEST...GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. THERE COULD BE A FEW
INSTABILITY TYPE SNOW FLURRIES/SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE BAND.
OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FALL YET WITH HIGHS
ONLY REACHING THE MID 30S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY...CLOSER TO 30 NORTHERN LITCHFIELD...THE CAPITAL
REGION AND SURROUNDING AREAS. AS ONE HEADS NORTHWEST INTO THE MOHAWK
VALLEY OR NORTH OF GLENS FALLS...EASTWARD TO VERMONT...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S...EXCEPT LOWER 20S
OVER THE SNOW COVERED AREAS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

WIND CHILLS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE LAKE SNOW
BAND EVEN MORE...BUT IT STILL MIGHT CONTINUE AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK
TO MORE OF A WESTERLY MEAN FLOW WHICH WOULD PUT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN RIM OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOME OF THESE AREAS.

REMAINING REGIONS OF THE EASTERN NEW YORK AND ALL OF ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE DRY WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT. THE
WIND WILL LIGHTEN. THIS WILL MAKE THIS NIGHT THE BEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT OF THIS COLD SPELL THUS FAR FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF
THE ADIRONDACKS. LOOK FOR LOWS TO TUMBLE TO THE TEENS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. UP WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...LOWS WILL RANGE
5 TO 10 ABOVE. WHILE WE EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE ADIRONDACKS...IF
ENOUGH THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS WERE TO DEVELOP...SOME SNOW
SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD MAKE A RUN AT ZERO DEGREES...WHILE MOST OF
THE ADIRONDACKS WILL AVERAGE CLOSER TO 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...AFTER A COLD START...SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD START THE
DAY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE RATHER QUICKLY FROM MID MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INTENSIFIES. GIVEN
THAT WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY...AND THAT TEMPS
WILL START OFF SO COLD...WE HAVE SIDED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...MID/UPPER 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S
ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS...AND COULD REACH AREAS JUST W OF
THE HUDSON RIVER TOWARD OR JUST AFTER SUNSET. FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST P-TYPE SHOULD START AS A LIGHT SNOW/SLEET MIX
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND PERHAPS SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION.

SAT NT...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO EXPAND E/NE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
EVENING...AND PERSISTS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS WELL AS SOME
ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES. AGAIN...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT A LIGHT MIX
OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WOULD BE MOST LIKELY...ALTHOUGH COULD
CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN LATER AT NIGHT IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH AND EAST AS SFC TEMPS RISE A BIT INTO AND THROUGH THE
LOWER/MID 30S. SINCE THE GROUND IS SO COLD...THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH
ANY FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE MAINLY TRAVEL RELATED...WITH SOME LIGHT
ICING POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY AT THIS TIME...BUT IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF FREEZING RAIN...THEN FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND MOHAWK
VALLEY.

SUNDAY...MAIN THRUST OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP MAY
STILL BE ONGOING INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
THEREAFTER...DESPITE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND N OF
INTERSTATE 90...WHERE LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST. HAVE SIDED ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MOST AREAS...WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO REACH 45-50 IN VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 50S COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT SHOULD MORE SUNSHINE
BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...AND A HEALTHY SURGE OF MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
JET APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH...RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY FALL
INTO THE 30S IN THE EVENING...BEFORE RISING LATER AT NIGHT WITH
THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND WARM ADVECTION. GENERALLY ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION MON MORNING...WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MON AND PASSES THROUGH MON NT.
SO...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE MON MORNING...ESP
ACROSS N/E AREAS...TAPERING TO SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN MON NT WITH THE FROPA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SHOWERS BECOME SCATTERED MON AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW
BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. DEPENDING ON IF ANY SUN
CAN BREAK THROUGH...TEMPS COULD SURGE INTO THE 60S. FOR
NOW...GIVEN THAT IT IS NOVEMBER WITH SUCH A LOW SUN ANGLE...WE
THINK THAT AT LEAST SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY HOLD ON...AND THEREFORE
WENT A BIT COOLER THAN MOST GUIDANCE...WITH MAINLY 55-60 IN
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH
HAVE INCLUDED SOME 60-65 TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT. AGAIN...SHOULD MORE
SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR. SHOWERY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH/END AS SNOW ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD TUE AM...WITH
MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S.

TUE-TUE NT...AT THIS VANTAGE POINT...APPEARS GRADUAL COOLING COULD
COMMENCE...WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE RATHER
MILD...GENERALLY 50-55 IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TUE NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED...AS THE 00Z/21 GFS AND MOST GEFS INDICATE A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST...KEEPING MOST OF THE
PRECIP WELL E OF THE REGION...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT
THIS WAVE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND THAT PRECIP EXPANDS
ACROSS AT LEAST THE S/E HALF OF THE REGION...IF NOT EVEN FURTHER
N AND W. THIS HAS BEEN A N/W TREND IN THE ECMWF FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OVERALL TRENDS VERY CLOSELY...AS THE
ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS THAT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES POTENTIALLY CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE OFFSHORE WAVE
REMAINS SEPARATE FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE TWO COULD PHASE SHOULD THAT ENERGY DIG MORE
QUICKLY...RESULTING IN A MUCH MORE POTENT EAST COAST STORM SYSTEM.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS FOR AREAS S/E OF ALBANY FOR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX WED...AND SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO ENTITIES...THURSDAY COULD BE RATHER
BLUSTERY WITH AT LEAST SOME PASSING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
TEMPS WED-THU WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL...WITH GENERALLY UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S FOR MAX TEMPS IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE IS STILL THE OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IF A LAKE BAND OFF ONTARIO SWINGS SOUTH AND COULD BRIEFLY
IMPACT THE KALB THROUGH THE MORNING PEAK. WE ASSIGNED A VCSH TO THE
AIRPORT ONLY.

AS THE FLOW ALIGNS ITSELF MORE DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE AIR IS
COLD ALOFT...EXPECT SOME STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS TO FORM GENERALLY
4000-5000 FEET OFF THE DECK ALONG WITH A GUSTY WIND...UP TO 25KTS AT
KALB AND KPSF.

THIS WIND WILL DIMINISH TOWARD DARK AND THE INSTABILITY CLOUDS
SHOULD DISSIPATE LEAVING US WITH A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH MUCH LESS
WIND.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT OF A PM WINTRY MIX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
RA...FZRA...SLEET. SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK
VALLEY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH TOTAL QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

MILDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY...50S AND LOW 60S MONDAY AND 50S TUESDAY...WITH NIGHTTIME
LOWS MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BRING A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TO THE HSA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL AND MINOR SNOW MELT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...KL/SNYDER/WASULA









000
FXUS61 KALY 211050
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
550 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.  A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A MILDER AIR MASS
BUILDS IN TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS PF 530 AM EST...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY CONTINUED FOR
SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. THE LAKE BAND HAS ACTUALLY SLIPPED EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH...WEAKENING...TRYING TO WORK INTO SCHOHARIE COUNTY.

FOR THIS UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...JUST MINOR TWEAKING OF
HOURLY GRIDS.

WE WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY SINCE SOME LAKE EFFECT IS STILL FALLING
AND THERE IS A CHANCE THE BAND COULD BRIEFLY "PULSE" AS THERE ARE
SOME GREENS (DBZ VALUES OVER 20) DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OF SOUTHERN
HERKIMER COUNTY INDICATING POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WAS WORKING ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING A
FEW FLURRIES AND CLOUDS OF ITS OWN. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL SERVE TO
PUSH THE LOW LEVEL MEAN FLOW TO MORE OF 300 VECTOR...WHICH WILL
ULTIMATELY SEND THE LAKE SNOW BAND SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CATSKILLS
LATER THIS MORNING.

THERE IS STILL A SLIM CHANCE THAT THE LAKE BAND MIGHT MAKE IT INTO
THE CAPITAL REGION...THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT THE INLAND LAKE EXTENT
OFF THE CSTAR CVIE GENERALLY WOULD INDICATE THE BAND NOT QUITE
MAKING INTO THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE VAST MAJORITY EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND WILL
REMAIN DRY WITH A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. THE WIND IN MOST CASES
HAS ABATED TO ABOUT 5 MPH...MAINLY OUT OF THE SW. TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE TEENS TO TO MID 20S...LOCALLY LOWER 20S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY BOTTOMED OUT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.


THE AIR IS QUITE COLD NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE BUT ALOFT...SO WE
BELIEVE A ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY CLOUDS WILL FORM AFTER
SUNRISE...MAINLY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. ALSO...THE WIND WILL PICK UP
FROM THE NORTHWEST...GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. THERE COULD BE A FEW
INSTABILITY TYPE SNOW FLURRIES/SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE BAND.
OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FALL YET WITH HIGHS
ONLY REACHING THE MID 30S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY...CLOSER TO 30 NORTHERN LITCHFIELD...THE CAPITAL
REGION AND SURROUNDING AREAS. AS ONE HEADS NORTHWEST INTO THE MOHAWK
VALLEY OR NORTH OF GLENS FALLS...EASTWARD TO VERMONT...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S...EXCEPT LOWER 20S
OVER THE SNOW COVERED AREAS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

WIND CHILLS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE LAKE SNOW
BAND EVEN MORE...BUT IT STILL MIGHT CONTINUE AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK
TO MORE OF A WESTERLY MEAN FLOW WHICH WOULD PUT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN RIM OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOME OF THESE AREAS.

REMAINING REGIONS OF THE EASTERN NEW YORK AND ALL OF ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE DRY WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT. THE
WIND WILL LIGHTEN. THIS WILL MAKE THIS NIGHT THE BEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT OF THIS COLD SPELL THUS FAR FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF
THE ADIRONDACKS. LOOK FOR LOWS TO TUMBLE TO THE TEENS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. UP WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...LOWS WILL RANGE
5 TO 10 ABOVE. WHILE WE EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE ADIRONDACKS...IF
ENOUGH THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS WERE TO DEVELOP...SOME SNOW
SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD MAKE A RUN AT ZERO DEGREES...WHILE MOST OF
THE ADIRONDACKS WILL AVERAGE CLOSER TO 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...AFTER A COLD START...SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD START THE
DAY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE RATHER QUICKLY FROM MID MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INTENSIFIES. GIVEN
THAT WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY...AND THAT TEMPS
WILL START OFF SO COLD...WE HAVE SIDED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...MID/UPPER 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S
ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS...AND COULD REACH AREAS JUST W OF
THE HUDSON RIVER TOWARD OR JUST AFTER SUNSET. FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST P-TYPE SHOULD START AS A LIGHT SNOW/SLEET MIX
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND PERHAPS SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION.

SAT NT...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO EXPAND E/NE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
EVENING...AND PERSISTS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS WELL AS SOME
ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES. AGAIN...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT A LIGHT MIX
OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WOULD BE MOST LIKELY...ALTHOUGH COULD
CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN LATER AT NIGHT IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH AND EAST AS SFC TEMPS RISE A BIT INTO AND THROUGH THE
LOWER/MID 30S. SINCE THE GROUND IS SO COLD...THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH
ANY FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE MAINLY TRAVEL RELATED...WITH SOME LIGHT
ICING POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY AT THIS TIME...BUT IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF FREEZING RAIN...THEN FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND MOHAWK
VALLEY.

SUNDAY...MAIN THRUST OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP MAY
STILL BE ONGOING INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
THEREAFTER...DESPITE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND N OF
INTERSTATE 90...WHERE LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST. HAVE SIDED ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MOST AREAS...WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO REACH 45-50 IN VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 50S COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT SHOULD MORE SUNSHINE
BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...AND A HEALTHY SURGE OF MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
JET APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH...RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY FALL
INTO THE 30S IN THE EVENING...BEFORE RISING LATER AT NIGHT WITH
THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND WARM ADVECTION. GENERALLY ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION MON MORNING...WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MON AND PASSES THROUGH MON NT.
SO...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE MON MORNING...ESP
ACROSS N/E AREAS...TAPERING TO SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN MON NT WITH THE FROPA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SHOWERS BECOME SCATTERED MON AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW
BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. DEPENDING ON IF ANY SUN
CAN BREAK THROUGH...TEMPS COULD SURGE INTO THE 60S. FOR
NOW...GIVEN THAT IT IS NOVEMBER WITH SUCH A LOW SUN ANGLE...WE
THINK THAT AT LEAST SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY HOLD ON...AND THEREFORE
WENT A BIT COOLER THAN MOST GUIDANCE...WITH MAINLY 55-60 IN
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH
HAVE INCLUDED SOME 60-65 TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT. AGAIN...SHOULD MORE
SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR. SHOWERY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH/END AS SNOW ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD TUE AM...WITH
MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S.

TUE-TUE NT...AT THIS VANTAGE POINT...APPEARS GRADUAL COOLING COULD
COMMENCE...WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE RATHER
MILD...GENERALLY 50-55 IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TUE NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED...AS THE 00Z/21 GFS AND MOST GEFS INDICATE A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST...KEEPING MOST OF THE
PRECIP WELL E OF THE REGION...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT
THIS WAVE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND THAT PRECIP EXPANDS
ACROSS AT LEAST THE S/E HALF OF THE REGION...IF NOT EVEN FURTHER
N AND W. THIS HAS BEEN A N/W TREND IN THE ECMWF FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OVERALL TRENDS VERY CLOSELY...AS THE
ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS THAT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES POTENTIALLY CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE OFFSHORE WAVE
REMAINS SEPARATE FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE TWO COULD PHASE SHOULD THAT ENERGY DIG MORE
QUICKLY...RESULTING IN A MUCH MORE POTENT EAST COAST STORM SYSTEM.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS FOR AREAS S/E OF ALBANY FOR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX WED...AND SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO ENTITIES...THURSDAY COULD BE RATHER
BLUSTERY WITH AT LEAST SOME PASSING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
TEMPS WED-THU WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL...WITH GENERALLY UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S FOR MAX TEMPS IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE IS STILL THE OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IF A LAKE BAND OFF ONTARIO SWINGS SOUTH AND COULD BRIEFLY
IMPACT THE KALB AND KPSF AIRPORTS THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH. THE
CHANCES ARE SMALL (ABOUT 20 PERCENT) SO FOR NOW...DID NOT EVEN CARRY
THE VCSH BUT WILL MONITOR.


AS THE FLOW ALIGNS ITSELF MORE DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE AIR IS
COLD ALOFT...EXPECT SOME STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS TO FORM GENERALLY
4000-5000 FEET OFF THE DECK ALONG WITH A GUSTY WIND...UP TO 25KTS AT
KALB AND KPSF.

THIS WIND WILL DIMINISH TOWARD DARK AND THE INSTABILITY CLOUDS
SHOULD DISSIPATE LEAVING US WITH A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH MUCH LESS
WIND.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT OF A PM WINTRY MIX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
RA...FZRA...SLEET. SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK
VALLEY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH TOTAL QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

MILDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY...50S AND LOW 60S MONDAY AND 50S TUESDAY...WITH NIGHTTIME
LOWS MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BRING A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TO THE HSA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL AND MINOR SNOW MELT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...KL/SNYDER/WASULA









000
FXUS61 KALY 211050
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
550 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.  A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A MILDER AIR MASS
BUILDS IN TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS PF 530 AM EST...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY CONTINUED FOR
SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. THE LAKE BAND HAS ACTUALLY SLIPPED EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH...WEAKENING...TRYING TO WORK INTO SCHOHARIE COUNTY.

FOR THIS UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...JUST MINOR TWEAKING OF
HOURLY GRIDS.

WE WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY SINCE SOME LAKE EFFECT IS STILL FALLING
AND THERE IS A CHANCE THE BAND COULD BRIEFLY "PULSE" AS THERE ARE
SOME GREENS (DBZ VALUES OVER 20) DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OF SOUTHERN
HERKIMER COUNTY INDICATING POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WAS WORKING ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING A
FEW FLURRIES AND CLOUDS OF ITS OWN. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL SERVE TO
PUSH THE LOW LEVEL MEAN FLOW TO MORE OF 300 VECTOR...WHICH WILL
ULTIMATELY SEND THE LAKE SNOW BAND SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CATSKILLS
LATER THIS MORNING.

THERE IS STILL A SLIM CHANCE THAT THE LAKE BAND MIGHT MAKE IT INTO
THE CAPITAL REGION...THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT THE INLAND LAKE EXTENT
OFF THE CSTAR CVIE GENERALLY WOULD INDICATE THE BAND NOT QUITE
MAKING INTO THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE VAST MAJORITY EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND WILL
REMAIN DRY WITH A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. THE WIND IN MOST CASES
HAS ABATED TO ABOUT 5 MPH...MAINLY OUT OF THE SW. TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE TEENS TO TO MID 20S...LOCALLY LOWER 20S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY BOTTOMED OUT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.


THE AIR IS QUITE COLD NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE BUT ALOFT...SO WE
BELIEVE A ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY CLOUDS WILL FORM AFTER
SUNRISE...MAINLY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. ALSO...THE WIND WILL PICK UP
FROM THE NORTHWEST...GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. THERE COULD BE A FEW
INSTABILITY TYPE SNOW FLURRIES/SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE BAND.
OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FALL YET WITH HIGHS
ONLY REACHING THE MID 30S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY...CLOSER TO 30 NORTHERN LITCHFIELD...THE CAPITAL
REGION AND SURROUNDING AREAS. AS ONE HEADS NORTHWEST INTO THE MOHAWK
VALLEY OR NORTH OF GLENS FALLS...EASTWARD TO VERMONT...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S...EXCEPT LOWER 20S
OVER THE SNOW COVERED AREAS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

WIND CHILLS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE LAKE SNOW
BAND EVEN MORE...BUT IT STILL MIGHT CONTINUE AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK
TO MORE OF A WESTERLY MEAN FLOW WHICH WOULD PUT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN RIM OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOME OF THESE AREAS.

REMAINING REGIONS OF THE EASTERN NEW YORK AND ALL OF ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE DRY WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT. THE
WIND WILL LIGHTEN. THIS WILL MAKE THIS NIGHT THE BEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT OF THIS COLD SPELL THUS FAR FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF
THE ADIRONDACKS. LOOK FOR LOWS TO TUMBLE TO THE TEENS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. UP WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...LOWS WILL RANGE
5 TO 10 ABOVE. WHILE WE EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE ADIRONDACKS...IF
ENOUGH THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS WERE TO DEVELOP...SOME SNOW
SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD MAKE A RUN AT ZERO DEGREES...WHILE MOST OF
THE ADIRONDACKS WILL AVERAGE CLOSER TO 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...AFTER A COLD START...SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD START THE
DAY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE RATHER QUICKLY FROM MID MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INTENSIFIES. GIVEN
THAT WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY...AND THAT TEMPS
WILL START OFF SO COLD...WE HAVE SIDED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...MID/UPPER 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S
ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS...AND COULD REACH AREAS JUST W OF
THE HUDSON RIVER TOWARD OR JUST AFTER SUNSET. FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST P-TYPE SHOULD START AS A LIGHT SNOW/SLEET MIX
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND PERHAPS SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION.

SAT NT...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO EXPAND E/NE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
EVENING...AND PERSISTS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS WELL AS SOME
ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES. AGAIN...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT A LIGHT MIX
OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WOULD BE MOST LIKELY...ALTHOUGH COULD
CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN LATER AT NIGHT IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH AND EAST AS SFC TEMPS RISE A BIT INTO AND THROUGH THE
LOWER/MID 30S. SINCE THE GROUND IS SO COLD...THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH
ANY FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE MAINLY TRAVEL RELATED...WITH SOME LIGHT
ICING POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY AT THIS TIME...BUT IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF FREEZING RAIN...THEN FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND MOHAWK
VALLEY.

SUNDAY...MAIN THRUST OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP MAY
STILL BE ONGOING INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
THEREAFTER...DESPITE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND N OF
INTERSTATE 90...WHERE LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST. HAVE SIDED ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MOST AREAS...WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO REACH 45-50 IN VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 50S COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT SHOULD MORE SUNSHINE
BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...AND A HEALTHY SURGE OF MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
JET APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH...RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY FALL
INTO THE 30S IN THE EVENING...BEFORE RISING LATER AT NIGHT WITH
THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND WARM ADVECTION. GENERALLY ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION MON MORNING...WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MON AND PASSES THROUGH MON NT.
SO...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE MON MORNING...ESP
ACROSS N/E AREAS...TAPERING TO SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN MON NT WITH THE FROPA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SHOWERS BECOME SCATTERED MON AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW
BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. DEPENDING ON IF ANY SUN
CAN BREAK THROUGH...TEMPS COULD SURGE INTO THE 60S. FOR
NOW...GIVEN THAT IT IS NOVEMBER WITH SUCH A LOW SUN ANGLE...WE
THINK THAT AT LEAST SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY HOLD ON...AND THEREFORE
WENT A BIT COOLER THAN MOST GUIDANCE...WITH MAINLY 55-60 IN
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH
HAVE INCLUDED SOME 60-65 TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT. AGAIN...SHOULD MORE
SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR. SHOWERY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH/END AS SNOW ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD TUE AM...WITH
MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S.

TUE-TUE NT...AT THIS VANTAGE POINT...APPEARS GRADUAL COOLING COULD
COMMENCE...WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE RATHER
MILD...GENERALLY 50-55 IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TUE NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED...AS THE 00Z/21 GFS AND MOST GEFS INDICATE A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST...KEEPING MOST OF THE
PRECIP WELL E OF THE REGION...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT
THIS WAVE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND THAT PRECIP EXPANDS
ACROSS AT LEAST THE S/E HALF OF THE REGION...IF NOT EVEN FURTHER
N AND W. THIS HAS BEEN A N/W TREND IN THE ECMWF FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OVERALL TRENDS VERY CLOSELY...AS THE
ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS THAT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES POTENTIALLY CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE OFFSHORE WAVE
REMAINS SEPARATE FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE TWO COULD PHASE SHOULD THAT ENERGY DIG MORE
QUICKLY...RESULTING IN A MUCH MORE POTENT EAST COAST STORM SYSTEM.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS FOR AREAS S/E OF ALBANY FOR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX WED...AND SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO ENTITIES...THURSDAY COULD BE RATHER
BLUSTERY WITH AT LEAST SOME PASSING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
TEMPS WED-THU WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL...WITH GENERALLY UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S FOR MAX TEMPS IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE IS STILL THE OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IF A LAKE BAND OFF ONTARIO SWINGS SOUTH AND COULD BRIEFLY
IMPACT THE KALB AND KPSF AIRPORTS THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH. THE
CHANCES ARE SMALL (ABOUT 20 PERCENT) SO FOR NOW...DID NOT EVEN CARRY
THE VCSH BUT WILL MONITOR.


AS THE FLOW ALIGNS ITSELF MORE DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE AIR IS
COLD ALOFT...EXPECT SOME STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS TO FORM GENERALLY
4000-5000 FEET OFF THE DECK ALONG WITH A GUSTY WIND...UP TO 25KTS AT
KALB AND KPSF.

THIS WIND WILL DIMINISH TOWARD DARK AND THE INSTABILITY CLOUDS
SHOULD DISSIPATE LEAVING US WITH A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH MUCH LESS
WIND.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT OF A PM WINTRY MIX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
RA...FZRA...SLEET. SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK
VALLEY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH TOTAL QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

MILDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY...50S AND LOW 60S MONDAY AND 50S TUESDAY...WITH NIGHTTIME
LOWS MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BRING A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TO THE HSA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL AND MINOR SNOW MELT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...KL/SNYDER/WASULA









000
FXUS61 KALY 211050
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
550 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.  A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A MILDER AIR MASS
BUILDS IN TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS PF 530 AM EST...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY CONTINUED FOR
SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. THE LAKE BAND HAS ACTUALLY SLIPPED EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH...WEAKENING...TRYING TO WORK INTO SCHOHARIE COUNTY.

FOR THIS UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...JUST MINOR TWEAKING OF
HOURLY GRIDS.

WE WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY SINCE SOME LAKE EFFECT IS STILL FALLING
AND THERE IS A CHANCE THE BAND COULD BRIEFLY "PULSE" AS THERE ARE
SOME GREENS (DBZ VALUES OVER 20) DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OF SOUTHERN
HERKIMER COUNTY INDICATING POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WAS WORKING ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING A
FEW FLURRIES AND CLOUDS OF ITS OWN. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL SERVE TO
PUSH THE LOW LEVEL MEAN FLOW TO MORE OF 300 VECTOR...WHICH WILL
ULTIMATELY SEND THE LAKE SNOW BAND SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CATSKILLS
LATER THIS MORNING.

THERE IS STILL A SLIM CHANCE THAT THE LAKE BAND MIGHT MAKE IT INTO
THE CAPITAL REGION...THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT THE INLAND LAKE EXTENT
OFF THE CSTAR CVIE GENERALLY WOULD INDICATE THE BAND NOT QUITE
MAKING INTO THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE VAST MAJORITY EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND WILL
REMAIN DRY WITH A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. THE WIND IN MOST CASES
HAS ABATED TO ABOUT 5 MPH...MAINLY OUT OF THE SW. TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE TEENS TO TO MID 20S...LOCALLY LOWER 20S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY BOTTOMED OUT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.


THE AIR IS QUITE COLD NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE BUT ALOFT...SO WE
BELIEVE A ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY CLOUDS WILL FORM AFTER
SUNRISE...MAINLY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. ALSO...THE WIND WILL PICK UP
FROM THE NORTHWEST...GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. THERE COULD BE A FEW
INSTABILITY TYPE SNOW FLURRIES/SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE BAND.
OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FALL YET WITH HIGHS
ONLY REACHING THE MID 30S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY...CLOSER TO 30 NORTHERN LITCHFIELD...THE CAPITAL
REGION AND SURROUNDING AREAS. AS ONE HEADS NORTHWEST INTO THE MOHAWK
VALLEY OR NORTH OF GLENS FALLS...EASTWARD TO VERMONT...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S...EXCEPT LOWER 20S
OVER THE SNOW COVERED AREAS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

WIND CHILLS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE LAKE SNOW
BAND EVEN MORE...BUT IT STILL MIGHT CONTINUE AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK
TO MORE OF A WESTERLY MEAN FLOW WHICH WOULD PUT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN RIM OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOME OF THESE AREAS.

REMAINING REGIONS OF THE EASTERN NEW YORK AND ALL OF ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE DRY WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT. THE
WIND WILL LIGHTEN. THIS WILL MAKE THIS NIGHT THE BEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT OF THIS COLD SPELL THUS FAR FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF
THE ADIRONDACKS. LOOK FOR LOWS TO TUMBLE TO THE TEENS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. UP WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...LOWS WILL RANGE
5 TO 10 ABOVE. WHILE WE EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE ADIRONDACKS...IF
ENOUGH THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS WERE TO DEVELOP...SOME SNOW
SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD MAKE A RUN AT ZERO DEGREES...WHILE MOST OF
THE ADIRONDACKS WILL AVERAGE CLOSER TO 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...AFTER A COLD START...SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD START THE
DAY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE RATHER QUICKLY FROM MID MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INTENSIFIES. GIVEN
THAT WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY...AND THAT TEMPS
WILL START OFF SO COLD...WE HAVE SIDED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...MID/UPPER 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S
ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS...AND COULD REACH AREAS JUST W OF
THE HUDSON RIVER TOWARD OR JUST AFTER SUNSET. FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST P-TYPE SHOULD START AS A LIGHT SNOW/SLEET MIX
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND PERHAPS SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION.

SAT NT...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO EXPAND E/NE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
EVENING...AND PERSISTS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS WELL AS SOME
ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES. AGAIN...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT A LIGHT MIX
OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WOULD BE MOST LIKELY...ALTHOUGH COULD
CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN LATER AT NIGHT IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH AND EAST AS SFC TEMPS RISE A BIT INTO AND THROUGH THE
LOWER/MID 30S. SINCE THE GROUND IS SO COLD...THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH
ANY FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE MAINLY TRAVEL RELATED...WITH SOME LIGHT
ICING POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY AT THIS TIME...BUT IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF FREEZING RAIN...THEN FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND MOHAWK
VALLEY.

SUNDAY...MAIN THRUST OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP MAY
STILL BE ONGOING INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
THEREAFTER...DESPITE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND N OF
INTERSTATE 90...WHERE LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST. HAVE SIDED ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MOST AREAS...WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO REACH 45-50 IN VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 50S COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT SHOULD MORE SUNSHINE
BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...AND A HEALTHY SURGE OF MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
JET APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH...RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY FALL
INTO THE 30S IN THE EVENING...BEFORE RISING LATER AT NIGHT WITH
THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND WARM ADVECTION. GENERALLY ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION MON MORNING...WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MON AND PASSES THROUGH MON NT.
SO...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE MON MORNING...ESP
ACROSS N/E AREAS...TAPERING TO SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN MON NT WITH THE FROPA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SHOWERS BECOME SCATTERED MON AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW
BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. DEPENDING ON IF ANY SUN
CAN BREAK THROUGH...TEMPS COULD SURGE INTO THE 60S. FOR
NOW...GIVEN THAT IT IS NOVEMBER WITH SUCH A LOW SUN ANGLE...WE
THINK THAT AT LEAST SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY HOLD ON...AND THEREFORE
WENT A BIT COOLER THAN MOST GUIDANCE...WITH MAINLY 55-60 IN
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH
HAVE INCLUDED SOME 60-65 TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT. AGAIN...SHOULD MORE
SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR. SHOWERY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH/END AS SNOW ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD TUE AM...WITH
MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S.

TUE-TUE NT...AT THIS VANTAGE POINT...APPEARS GRADUAL COOLING COULD
COMMENCE...WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE RATHER
MILD...GENERALLY 50-55 IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TUE NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED...AS THE 00Z/21 GFS AND MOST GEFS INDICATE A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST...KEEPING MOST OF THE
PRECIP WELL E OF THE REGION...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT
THIS WAVE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND THAT PRECIP EXPANDS
ACROSS AT LEAST THE S/E HALF OF THE REGION...IF NOT EVEN FURTHER
N AND W. THIS HAS BEEN A N/W TREND IN THE ECMWF FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OVERALL TRENDS VERY CLOSELY...AS THE
ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS THAT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES POTENTIALLY CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE OFFSHORE WAVE
REMAINS SEPARATE FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE TWO COULD PHASE SHOULD THAT ENERGY DIG MORE
QUICKLY...RESULTING IN A MUCH MORE POTENT EAST COAST STORM SYSTEM.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS FOR AREAS S/E OF ALBANY FOR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX WED...AND SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO ENTITIES...THURSDAY COULD BE RATHER
BLUSTERY WITH AT LEAST SOME PASSING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
TEMPS WED-THU WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL...WITH GENERALLY UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S FOR MAX TEMPS IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE IS STILL THE OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IF A LAKE BAND OFF ONTARIO SWINGS SOUTH AND COULD BRIEFLY
IMPACT THE KALB AND KPSF AIRPORTS THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH. THE
CHANCES ARE SMALL (ABOUT 20 PERCENT) SO FOR NOW...DID NOT EVEN CARRY
THE VCSH BUT WILL MONITOR.


AS THE FLOW ALIGNS ITSELF MORE DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE AIR IS
COLD ALOFT...EXPECT SOME STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS TO FORM GENERALLY
4000-5000 FEET OFF THE DECK ALONG WITH A GUSTY WIND...UP TO 25KTS AT
KALB AND KPSF.

THIS WIND WILL DIMINISH TOWARD DARK AND THE INSTABILITY CLOUDS
SHOULD DISSIPATE LEAVING US WITH A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH MUCH LESS
WIND.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT OF A PM WINTRY MIX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
RA...FZRA...SLEET. SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK
VALLEY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH TOTAL QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

MILDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY...50S AND LOW 60S MONDAY AND 50S TUESDAY...WITH NIGHTTIME
LOWS MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BRING A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TO THE HSA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL AND MINOR SNOW MELT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...KL/SNYDER/WASULA









000
FXUS61 KALY 211050
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
550 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.  A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A MILDER AIR MASS
BUILDS IN TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS PF 530 AM EST...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY CONTINUED FOR
SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. THE LAKE BAND HAS ACTUALLY SLIPPED EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH...WEAKENING...TRYING TO WORK INTO SCHOHARIE COUNTY.

FOR THIS UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...JUST MINOR TWEAKING OF
HOURLY GRIDS.

WE WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY SINCE SOME LAKE EFFECT IS STILL FALLING
AND THERE IS A CHANCE THE BAND COULD BRIEFLY "PULSE" AS THERE ARE
SOME GREENS (DBZ VALUES OVER 20) DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OF SOUTHERN
HERKIMER COUNTY INDICATING POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WAS WORKING ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING A
FEW FLURRIES AND CLOUDS OF ITS OWN. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL SERVE TO
PUSH THE LOW LEVEL MEAN FLOW TO MORE OF 300 VECTOR...WHICH WILL
ULTIMATELY SEND THE LAKE SNOW BAND SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CATSKILLS
LATER THIS MORNING.

THERE IS STILL A SLIM CHANCE THAT THE LAKE BAND MIGHT MAKE IT INTO
THE CAPITAL REGION...THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT THE INLAND LAKE EXTENT
OFF THE CSTAR CVIE GENERALLY WOULD INDICATE THE BAND NOT QUITE
MAKING INTO THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE VAST MAJORITY EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND WILL
REMAIN DRY WITH A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. THE WIND IN MOST CASES
HAS ABATED TO ABOUT 5 MPH...MAINLY OUT OF THE SW. TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE TEENS TO TO MID 20S...LOCALLY LOWER 20S IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY BOTTOMED OUT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.


THE AIR IS QUITE COLD NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE BUT ALOFT...SO WE
BELIEVE A ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY CLOUDS WILL FORM AFTER
SUNRISE...MAINLY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. ALSO...THE WIND WILL PICK UP
FROM THE NORTHWEST...GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. THERE COULD BE A FEW
INSTABILITY TYPE SNOW FLURRIES/SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE BAND.
OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FALL YET WITH HIGHS
ONLY REACHING THE MID 30S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD COUNTY...CLOSER TO 30 NORTHERN LITCHFIELD...THE CAPITAL
REGION AND SURROUNDING AREAS. AS ONE HEADS NORTHWEST INTO THE MOHAWK
VALLEY OR NORTH OF GLENS FALLS...EASTWARD TO VERMONT...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S...EXCEPT LOWER 20S
OVER THE SNOW COVERED AREAS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

WIND CHILLS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE LAKE SNOW
BAND EVEN MORE...BUT IT STILL MIGHT CONTINUE AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK
TO MORE OF A WESTERLY MEAN FLOW WHICH WOULD PUT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN RIM OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOME OF THESE AREAS.

REMAINING REGIONS OF THE EASTERN NEW YORK AND ALL OF ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE DRY WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT. THE
WIND WILL LIGHTEN. THIS WILL MAKE THIS NIGHT THE BEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT OF THIS COLD SPELL THUS FAR FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF
THE ADIRONDACKS. LOOK FOR LOWS TO TUMBLE TO THE TEENS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. UP WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...LOWS WILL RANGE
5 TO 10 ABOVE. WHILE WE EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE ADIRONDACKS...IF
ENOUGH THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS WERE TO DEVELOP...SOME SNOW
SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD MAKE A RUN AT ZERO DEGREES...WHILE MOST OF
THE ADIRONDACKS WILL AVERAGE CLOSER TO 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...AFTER A COLD START...SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD START THE
DAY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE RATHER QUICKLY FROM MID MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INTENSIFIES. GIVEN
THAT WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY...AND THAT TEMPS
WILL START OFF SO COLD...WE HAVE SIDED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...MID/UPPER 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S
ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS...AND COULD REACH AREAS JUST W OF
THE HUDSON RIVER TOWARD OR JUST AFTER SUNSET. FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST P-TYPE SHOULD START AS A LIGHT SNOW/SLEET MIX
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND PERHAPS SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION.

SAT NT...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO EXPAND E/NE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
EVENING...AND PERSISTS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS WELL AS SOME
ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES. AGAIN...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT A LIGHT MIX
OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WOULD BE MOST LIKELY...ALTHOUGH COULD
CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN LATER AT NIGHT IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH AND EAST AS SFC TEMPS RISE A BIT INTO AND THROUGH THE
LOWER/MID 30S. SINCE THE GROUND IS SO COLD...THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH
ANY FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE MAINLY TRAVEL RELATED...WITH SOME LIGHT
ICING POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY AT THIS TIME...BUT IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF FREEZING RAIN...THEN FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND MOHAWK
VALLEY.

SUNDAY...MAIN THRUST OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP MAY
STILL BE ONGOING INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
THEREAFTER...DESPITE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND N OF
INTERSTATE 90...WHERE LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST. HAVE SIDED ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MOST AREAS...WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO REACH 45-50 IN VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 50S COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT SHOULD MORE SUNSHINE
BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...AND A HEALTHY SURGE OF MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
JET APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH...RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY FALL
INTO THE 30S IN THE EVENING...BEFORE RISING LATER AT NIGHT WITH
THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND WARM ADVECTION. GENERALLY ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION MON MORNING...WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MON AND PASSES THROUGH MON NT.
SO...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE MON MORNING...ESP
ACROSS N/E AREAS...TAPERING TO SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN MON NT WITH THE FROPA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SHOWERS BECOME SCATTERED MON AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW
BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. DEPENDING ON IF ANY SUN
CAN BREAK THROUGH...TEMPS COULD SURGE INTO THE 60S. FOR
NOW...GIVEN THAT IT IS NOVEMBER WITH SUCH A LOW SUN ANGLE...WE
THINK THAT AT LEAST SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY HOLD ON...AND THEREFORE
WENT A BIT COOLER THAN MOST GUIDANCE...WITH MAINLY 55-60 IN
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH
HAVE INCLUDED SOME 60-65 TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT. AGAIN...SHOULD MORE
SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR. SHOWERY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH/END AS SNOW ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD TUE AM...WITH
MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S.

TUE-TUE NT...AT THIS VANTAGE POINT...APPEARS GRADUAL COOLING COULD
COMMENCE...WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE RATHER
MILD...GENERALLY 50-55 IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TUE NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED...AS THE 00Z/21 GFS AND MOST GEFS INDICATE A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST...KEEPING MOST OF THE
PRECIP WELL E OF THE REGION...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT
THIS WAVE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND THAT PRECIP EXPANDS
ACROSS AT LEAST THE S/E HALF OF THE REGION...IF NOT EVEN FURTHER
N AND W. THIS HAS BEEN A N/W TREND IN THE ECMWF FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OVERALL TRENDS VERY CLOSELY...AS THE
ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS THAT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES POTENTIALLY CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE OFFSHORE WAVE
REMAINS SEPARATE FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE TWO COULD PHASE SHOULD THAT ENERGY DIG MORE
QUICKLY...RESULTING IN A MUCH MORE POTENT EAST COAST STORM SYSTEM.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS FOR AREAS S/E OF ALBANY FOR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX WED...AND SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO ENTITIES...THURSDAY COULD BE RATHER
BLUSTERY WITH AT LEAST SOME PASSING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
TEMPS WED-THU WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL...WITH GENERALLY UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S FOR MAX TEMPS IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE IS STILL THE OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IF A LAKE BAND OFF ONTARIO SWINGS SOUTH AND COULD BRIEFLY
IMPACT THE KALB AND KPSF AIRPORTS THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH. THE
CHANCES ARE SMALL (ABOUT 20 PERCENT) SO FOR NOW...DID NOT EVEN CARRY
THE VCSH BUT WILL MONITOR.


AS THE FLOW ALIGNS ITSELF MORE DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE AIR IS
COLD ALOFT...EXPECT SOME STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS TO FORM GENERALLY
4000-5000 FEET OFF THE DECK ALONG WITH A GUSTY WIND...UP TO 25KTS AT
KALB AND KPSF.

THIS WIND WILL DIMINISH TOWARD DARK AND THE INSTABILITY CLOUDS
SHOULD DISSIPATE LEAVING US WITH A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH MUCH LESS
WIND.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT OF A PM WINTRY MIX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
RA...FZRA...SLEET. SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK
VALLEY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH TOTAL QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

MILDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY...50S AND LOW 60S MONDAY AND 50S TUESDAY...WITH NIGHTTIME
LOWS MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BRING A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TO THE HSA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL AND MINOR SNOW MELT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...KL/SNYDER/WASULA









000
FXUS61 KBTV 210922
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
422 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY DRY TODAY WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD TODAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND ALONG
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 422 AM EST FRIDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FILTER IN DRIER
AND COLDER AIR TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE
20S...TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WHILE MOST AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY REMAINING DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS THE PERIOD WITH
THE NORTH COUNTRY IN NW TO WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY. ON
SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC,
ALLOWING FOR RETURN SW FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE SOUTH. A MILD
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COINCIDING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THE WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A
WINTRY MIX CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BUT DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF
WARM NOSE IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT MORE TO SNOW, RAIN AND SLEET
EVENT. HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT DRAWS CONCERNS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. HAVE INCLUDED WINTRY MIX WORDING
IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES BEING
THAT THIS EVENT IS OUT IN PERIOD 4 AND 5 WITH DETAILS STILL FUZZY.
ALSO TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL AFFECT
PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TO RAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST, SUNDAY WILL DRY OUT WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S, WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD
THOUGH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING LEAVING THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY.

SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MEAN
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATING ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AND MVFR VIS IN SNOW
SHOWERS AT KSLK FOR FIRST FEW HOURS. UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
REGION, BRINGING MOISTURE AND SOME LOWER CIGS. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNING NORTHWEST AND UPSLOPE AT KSLK TOUCHING OFF SOME SNOW
SHOWERS. ALSO ADDED VCSH AT KMPV BUT KEPT SNOW OUT OF LIMIT TO
VISIBILITY. MVFR CIGS TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED FROM MID MORNING ON
IN DRYING AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES ON. SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE DURING DAYTIME HOURS THEN WILL SUBSIDE HEADING TOWARD
00Z.


OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON/KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...HANSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 210922
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
422 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY DRY TODAY WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD TODAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND ALONG
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 422 AM EST FRIDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FILTER IN DRIER
AND COLDER AIR TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE
20S...TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WHILE MOST AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY REMAINING DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS THE PERIOD WITH
THE NORTH COUNTRY IN NW TO WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY. ON
SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC,
ALLOWING FOR RETURN SW FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE SOUTH. A MILD
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COINCIDING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THE WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A
WINTRY MIX CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BUT DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF
WARM NOSE IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT MORE TO SNOW, RAIN AND SLEET
EVENT. HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT DRAWS CONCERNS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. HAVE INCLUDED WINTRY MIX WORDING
IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES BEING
THAT THIS EVENT IS OUT IN PERIOD 4 AND 5 WITH DETAILS STILL FUZZY.
ALSO TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL AFFECT
PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TO RAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST, SUNDAY WILL DRY OUT WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S, WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD
THOUGH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING LEAVING THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY.

SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MEAN
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATING ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AND MVFR VIS IN SNOW
SHOWERS AT KSLK FOR FIRST FEW HOURS. UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
REGION, BRINGING MOISTURE AND SOME LOWER CIGS. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNING NORTHWEST AND UPSLOPE AT KSLK TOUCHING OFF SOME SNOW
SHOWERS. ALSO ADDED VCSH AT KMPV BUT KEPT SNOW OUT OF LIMIT TO
VISIBILITY. MVFR CIGS TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED FROM MID MORNING ON
IN DRYING AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES ON. SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE DURING DAYTIME HOURS THEN WILL SUBSIDE HEADING TOWARD
00Z.


OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON/KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...HANSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 210922
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
422 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY DRY TODAY WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD TODAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND ALONG
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 422 AM EST FRIDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FILTER IN DRIER
AND COLDER AIR TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE
20S...TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WHILE MOST AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY REMAINING DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS THE PERIOD WITH
THE NORTH COUNTRY IN NW TO WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY. ON
SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC,
ALLOWING FOR RETURN SW FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE SOUTH. A MILD
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COINCIDING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THE WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A
WINTRY MIX CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BUT DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF
WARM NOSE IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT MORE TO SNOW, RAIN AND SLEET
EVENT. HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT DRAWS CONCERNS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. HAVE INCLUDED WINTRY MIX WORDING
IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES BEING
THAT THIS EVENT IS OUT IN PERIOD 4 AND 5 WITH DETAILS STILL FUZZY.
ALSO TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL AFFECT
PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TO RAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST, SUNDAY WILL DRY OUT WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S, WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD
THOUGH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING LEAVING THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY.

SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MEAN
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATING ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AND MVFR VIS IN SNOW
SHOWERS AT KSLK FOR FIRST FEW HOURS. UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
REGION, BRINGING MOISTURE AND SOME LOWER CIGS. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNING NORTHWEST AND UPSLOPE AT KSLK TOUCHING OFF SOME SNOW
SHOWERS. ALSO ADDED VCSH AT KMPV BUT KEPT SNOW OUT OF LIMIT TO
VISIBILITY. MVFR CIGS TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED FROM MID MORNING ON
IN DRYING AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES ON. SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE DURING DAYTIME HOURS THEN WILL SUBSIDE HEADING TOWARD
00Z.


OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON/KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...HANSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 210922
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
422 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY DRY TODAY WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD TODAY AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND ALONG
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 422 AM EST FRIDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FILTER IN DRIER
AND COLDER AIR TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE
20S...TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WHILE MOST AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY REMAINING DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS THE PERIOD WITH
THE NORTH COUNTRY IN NW TO WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY. ON
SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC,
ALLOWING FOR RETURN SW FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS WARMER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE SOUTH. A MILD
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COINCIDING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THE WARMER AIR FILTERING IN....A
WINTRY MIX CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BUT DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF
WARM NOSE IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT MORE TO SNOW, RAIN AND SLEET
EVENT. HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT DRAWS CONCERNS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. HAVE INCLUDED WINTRY MIX WORDING
IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES BEING
THAT THIS EVENT IS OUT IN PERIOD 4 AND 5 WITH DETAILS STILL FUZZY.
ALSO TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL AFFECT
PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TO RAIN SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST, SUNDAY WILL DRY OUT WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
40S, WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD
THOUGH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING LEAVING THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY.

SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MEAN
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATING ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AND MVFR VIS IN SNOW
SHOWERS AT KSLK FOR FIRST FEW HOURS. UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
REGION, BRINGING MOISTURE AND SOME LOWER CIGS. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNING NORTHWEST AND UPSLOPE AT KSLK TOUCHING OFF SOME SNOW
SHOWERS. ALSO ADDED VCSH AT KMPV BUT KEPT SNOW OUT OF LIMIT TO
VISIBILITY. MVFR CIGS TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED FROM MID MORNING ON
IN DRYING AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES ON. SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE DURING DAYTIME HOURS THEN WILL SUBSIDE HEADING TOWARD
00Z.


OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON/KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...HANSON



000
FXUS61 KALY 210917
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
417 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.  A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A MILDER AIR MASS
BUILDS IN TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. WE HAVE CONTINUED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY.

THE INTENSE LAKE BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO HAS WEAKENED IN THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR HAS ENTRAINED INTO THE COLUMN
AND SUBSIDENCE HAS INCREASED. ALSO...THE BAND HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD
AS THE MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS HAS VEERED FROM ABOUT A 260
(WESTERLY) VECTOR...TO ABOUT A 290 (WEST NORTHWESTERLY) DIRECTION.

THERE WERE STILL SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING IN CENTRAL
HERKIMER AND SOUTHERN HAMILTON COUNTIES...BUT THESE WERE CAPABLE OF
ONLY PRODUCING AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF SNOW IN A FEW
SPOTS...WITH HIGH LOCALIZED SNOWFALL RATES GENERALLY UNDER HALF AN
INCH PER HOUR...WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS AREA WAS RECEIVING
NO ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE SNOW.

WE KEPT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UP FOR SOUTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY SINCE MUCH OF THIS REGION WAS EXPERIENCING SNOWFALL RATES UP TO
HALF TO AN INCH PER HOUR IN A FEW SPOTS. THIS BAND EXTENDED INTO
FULTON COUNTY AS WELL BUT WE OVERALL WE EXPECT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS IN THAT COUNTY TO FALL SHORT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES HAVE MADE IT TO SOUTHERN
VERMONT BUT AGAIN THESE WERE CAPABLE OF ONLY PRODUCING A DUSTING AT
MOST.

THE VAST MAJORITY EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND WERE DRY
WITH A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. THE WIND IN MOST CASES HAS ABATED
TO ABOUT 5 MPH...MAINLY OUT OF THE SW. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE
TEENS TO TO MID 20S...LOCALLY LOWER 20S IN THE CAPITAL
REGION.

THROUGH DAWN...WE EXPECT THE SNOW BAND TO MAKE A LITTLE MORE
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD...LINING UP CLOSELY TO THE NY THRUWAY IN
MONTGOMERY COUNTY. THE SNOW BAND LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 30 DBZ...SO
RIGHT NOW...WE ARE NOT PLANNING ANY SPECIAL STATEMENTS CONCERNING
IMPACTS ON THE THRUWAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RADAR FOR
ANY POSSIBLE "FLAREUPS" OF THE BAND AS IT APPROACHES SCHOHARIE
COUNTY TOWARD DAWN.

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SNOW BAND MIGHT BRIEFLY
EXTEND INTO THE CAPITAL REGION AND EVEN THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES
RIGHT BEFORE DAWN...PERHAPS BRINGING A DUSTING TO A FEW SPOTS.

OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN DRY AND COLD WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING
OUT IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND THE
LAKE BAND WILL CONTINUE ON ITS SOUTHWARD JOURNEY...WORKING THROUGH
SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY AND SCHOHARIE COUNTIES AND EVENTUALLY EVEN
DROPPING TOWARD GREENE COUNTY.

THE AIR IS QUITE COLD NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE BUT ALOFT...SO WE
BELIEVE A LOT OF INSTABILITY CLOUDS WILL FORM AFTER SUNRISE...MAINLY
FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. ALSO...THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE
NORTHWEST...GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. THERE COULD BE A FEW INSTABILITY
TYPE SNOW FLURRIES/SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE BAND. OTHERWISE...IT
SHOULD BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FALL YET WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING
THE MID 30S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY...CLOSER TO 30 NORTHERN LITCHFIELD...THE CAPITAL REGION AND
SURROUNDING AREAS. AS ONE HEADS NORTHWEST INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY OR
NORTH OF GLENS FALLS...EASTWARD TO VERMONT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE HELD TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S...EXCEPT LOWER 20S OVER THE SNOW
COVERED AREAS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

WIND CHILLS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE LAKE SNOW
BAND EVEN MORE...BUT IT STILL MIGHT CONTINUE AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK
TO MORE OF A WESTERLY MEAN FLOW WHICH WOULD PUT THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOME OF THESE AREAS.

REMAINING REGIONS OF THE EASTERN NEW YORK AND ALL OF ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE DRY WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT. THE
WIND WILL LIGHTEN. THIS WILL MAKE THIS NIGHT THE BEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT OF THIS COLD SPELL THUS FAR FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF
THE ADIRONDACKS. LOOK FOR LOWS TO TUMBLE TO THE TEENS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. UP WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...LOWS WILL RANGE
5 TO 10 ABOVE. WHILE WE EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE ADIRONDACKS...IF
ENOUGH THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS WERE TO DEVELOP...SOME SNOW
SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD MAKE A RUN AT ZERO DEGREES!

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...AFTER A COLD START...SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD START THE
DAY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE RATHER QUICKLY FROM MID MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INTENSIFIES. GIVEN
THAT WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY...AND THAT TEMPS
WILL START OFF SO COLD...WE HAVE SIDED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...MID/UPPER 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S
ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS...AND COULD REACH AREAS JUST W OF
THE HUDSON RIVER TOWARD OR JUST AFTER SUNSET. FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST P-TYPE SHOULD START AS A LIGHT SNOW/SLEET MIX
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND PERHAPS SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION.

SAT NT...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO EXPAND E/NE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
EVENING...AND PERSISTS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS WELL AS SOME
ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES. AGAIN...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT A LIGHT MIX
OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WOULD BE MOST LIKELY...ALTHOUGH COULD
CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN LATER AT NIGHT IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH AND EAST AS SFC TEMPS RISE A BIT INTO AND THROUGH THE
LOWER/MID 30S. SINCE THE GROUND IS SO COLD...THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH
ANY FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE MAINLY TRAVEL RELATED...WITH SOME LIGHT
ICING POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY AT THIS TIME...BUT IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF FREEZING RAIN...THEN FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND MOHAWK
VALLEY.

SUNDAY...MAIN THRUST OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP MAY
STILL BE ONGOING INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
THEREAFTER...DESPITE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND N OF
INTERSTATE 90...WHERE LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST. HAVE SIDED ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MOST AREAS...WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO REACH 45-50 IN VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 50S COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT SHOULD MORE SUNSHINE
BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...AND A HEALTHY SURGE OF MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
JET APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH...RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY FALL
INTO THE 30S IN THE EVENING...BEFORE RISING LATER AT NIGHT WITH
THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND WARM ADVECTION. GENERALLY ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION MON MORNING...WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MON AND PASSES THROUGH MON NT.
SO...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE MON MORNING...ESP
ACROSS N/E AREAS...TAPERING TO SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN MON NT WITH THE FROPA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SHOWERS BECOME SCATTERED MON AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW
BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. DEPENDING ON IF ANY SUN
CAN BREAK THROUGH...TEMPS COULD SURGE INTO THE 60S. FOR
NOW...GIVEN THAT IT IS NOVEMBER WITH SUCH A LOW SUN ANGLE...WE
THINK THAT AT LEAST SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY HOLD ON...AND THEREFORE
WENT A BIT COOLER THAN MOST GUIDANCE...WITH MAINLY 55-60 IN
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH
HAVE INCLUDED SOME 60-65 TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT. AGAIN...SHOULD MORE
SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR. SHOWERY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH/END AS SNOW ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD TUE AM...WITH
MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S.

TUE-TUE NT...AT THIS VANTAGE POINT...APPEARS GRADUAL COOLING COULD
COMMENCE...WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE RATHER
MILD...GENERALLY 50-55 IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TUE NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED...AS THE 00Z/21 GFS AND MOST GEFS INDICATE A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST...KEEPING MOST OF THE
PRECIP WELL E OF THE REGION...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT
THIS WAVE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND THAT PRECIP EXPANDS
ACROSS AT LEAST THE S/E HALF OF THE REGION...IF NOT EVEN FURTHER
N AND W. THIS HAS BEEN A N/W TREND IN THE ECMWF FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OVERALL TRENDS VERY CLOSELY...AS THE
ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS THAT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES POTENTIALLY CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE OFFSHORE WAVE
REMAINS SEPARATE FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE TWO COULD PHASE SHOULD THAT ENERGY DIG MORE
QUICKLY...RESULTING IN A MUCH MORE POTENT EAST COAST STORM SYSTEM.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS FOR AREAS S/E OF ALBANY FOR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX WED...AND SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO ENTITIES...THURSDAY COULD BE RATHER
BLUSTERY WITH AT LEAST SOME PASSING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
TEMPS WED-THU WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL...WITH GENERALLY UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S FOR MAX TEMPS IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS
STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IF A LAKE
BAND OFF ONTARIO SWINGS SOUTH AND COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT THE KALB AND
KPSF AIRPORTS. THE CHANCES ARE SMALL (ABOUT 20 PERCENT) SO FOR
NOW...DID NOT EVEN CARRY THE VCSH BUT WILL MONITOR.

OTHERWISE IT LOOKS CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH
A W TO SW WIND 5-10KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

FRIDAY...AS THE FLOW ALIGNS ITSELF MORE DOWN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...EXPECT STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS GENERALLY 4000-5000 FEET OFF
THE DECK ALONG WITH A GUSTY WIND...UP TO 25KTS AT KALB AND KPSF.

THIS WIND WILL DIMINISH TOWARD DARK AND THE INSTABILITY CLOUDS
SHOULD DISSIPATE LEAVING US WITH A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT FRIDAY AND
MUCH LESS WIND.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...FZRA...SLEET.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK
VALLEY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH TOTAL QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

MILDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY...50S AND LOW 60S MONDAY AND 50S TUESDAY...WITH NIGHTTIME
LOWS MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BRING A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TO THE HSA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL AND MINOR SNOW MELT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...KL/SNYDER/WASULA







000
FXUS61 KALY 210917
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
417 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.  A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A MILDER AIR MASS
BUILDS IN TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. WE HAVE CONTINUED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY.

THE INTENSE LAKE BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO HAS WEAKENED IN THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR HAS ENTRAINED INTO THE COLUMN
AND SUBSIDENCE HAS INCREASED. ALSO...THE BAND HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD
AS THE MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS HAS VEERED FROM ABOUT A 260
(WESTERLY) VECTOR...TO ABOUT A 290 (WEST NORTHWESTERLY) DIRECTION.

THERE WERE STILL SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING IN CENTRAL
HERKIMER AND SOUTHERN HAMILTON COUNTIES...BUT THESE WERE CAPABLE OF
ONLY PRODUCING AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF SNOW IN A FEW
SPOTS...WITH HIGH LOCALIZED SNOWFALL RATES GENERALLY UNDER HALF AN
INCH PER HOUR...WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS AREA WAS RECEIVING
NO ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE SNOW.

WE KEPT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UP FOR SOUTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY SINCE MUCH OF THIS REGION WAS EXPERIENCING SNOWFALL RATES UP TO
HALF TO AN INCH PER HOUR IN A FEW SPOTS. THIS BAND EXTENDED INTO
FULTON COUNTY AS WELL BUT WE OVERALL WE EXPECT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS IN THAT COUNTY TO FALL SHORT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES HAVE MADE IT TO SOUTHERN
VERMONT BUT AGAIN THESE WERE CAPABLE OF ONLY PRODUCING A DUSTING AT
MOST.

THE VAST MAJORITY EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND WERE DRY
WITH A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. THE WIND IN MOST CASES HAS ABATED
TO ABOUT 5 MPH...MAINLY OUT OF THE SW. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE
TEENS TO TO MID 20S...LOCALLY LOWER 20S IN THE CAPITAL
REGION.

THROUGH DAWN...WE EXPECT THE SNOW BAND TO MAKE A LITTLE MORE
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD...LINING UP CLOSELY TO THE NY THRUWAY IN
MONTGOMERY COUNTY. THE SNOW BAND LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 30 DBZ...SO
RIGHT NOW...WE ARE NOT PLANNING ANY SPECIAL STATEMENTS CONCERNING
IMPACTS ON THE THRUWAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RADAR FOR
ANY POSSIBLE "FLAREUPS" OF THE BAND AS IT APPROACHES SCHOHARIE
COUNTY TOWARD DAWN.

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SNOW BAND MIGHT BRIEFLY
EXTEND INTO THE CAPITAL REGION AND EVEN THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES
RIGHT BEFORE DAWN...PERHAPS BRINGING A DUSTING TO A FEW SPOTS.

OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN DRY AND COLD WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING
OUT IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND THE
LAKE BAND WILL CONTINUE ON ITS SOUTHWARD JOURNEY...WORKING THROUGH
SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY AND SCHOHARIE COUNTIES AND EVENTUALLY EVEN
DROPPING TOWARD GREENE COUNTY.

THE AIR IS QUITE COLD NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE BUT ALOFT...SO WE
BELIEVE A LOT OF INSTABILITY CLOUDS WILL FORM AFTER SUNRISE...MAINLY
FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. ALSO...THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE
NORTHWEST...GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. THERE COULD BE A FEW INSTABILITY
TYPE SNOW FLURRIES/SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE BAND. OTHERWISE...IT
SHOULD BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FALL YET WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING
THE MID 30S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD
COUNTY...CLOSER TO 30 NORTHERN LITCHFIELD...THE CAPITAL REGION AND
SURROUNDING AREAS. AS ONE HEADS NORTHWEST INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY OR
NORTH OF GLENS FALLS...EASTWARD TO VERMONT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE HELD TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S...EXCEPT LOWER 20S OVER THE SNOW
COVERED AREAS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

WIND CHILLS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS...THIS WILL WEAKEN THE LAKE SNOW
BAND EVEN MORE...BUT IT STILL MIGHT CONTINUE AS THE FLOW TURNS BACK
TO MORE OF A WESTERLY MEAN FLOW WHICH WOULD PUT THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOME OF THESE AREAS.

REMAINING REGIONS OF THE EASTERN NEW YORK AND ALL OF ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE DRY WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT. THE
WIND WILL LIGHTEN. THIS WILL MAKE THIS NIGHT THE BEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT OF THIS COLD SPELL THUS FAR FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF
THE ADIRONDACKS. LOOK FOR LOWS TO TUMBLE TO THE TEENS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD. UP WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...LOWS WILL RANGE
5 TO 10 ABOVE. WHILE WE EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE ADIRONDACKS...IF
ENOUGH THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS WERE TO DEVELOP...SOME SNOW
SHELTERED VALLEYS COULD MAKE A RUN AT ZERO DEGREES!

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...AFTER A COLD START...SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD START THE
DAY...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE RATHER QUICKLY FROM MID MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INTENSIFIES. GIVEN
THAT WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY...AND THAT TEMPS
WILL START OFF SO COLD...WE HAVE SIDED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS...MID/UPPER 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S
ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS...AND COULD REACH AREAS JUST W OF
THE HUDSON RIVER TOWARD OR JUST AFTER SUNSET. FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST P-TYPE SHOULD START AS A LIGHT SNOW/SLEET MIX
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND PERHAPS SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION.

SAT NT...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO EXPAND E/NE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
EVENING...AND PERSISTS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS WELL AS SOME
ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES. AGAIN...THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT A LIGHT MIX
OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WOULD BE MOST LIKELY...ALTHOUGH COULD
CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN LATER AT NIGHT IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH AND EAST AS SFC TEMPS RISE A BIT INTO AND THROUGH THE
LOWER/MID 30S. SINCE THE GROUND IS SO COLD...THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH
ANY FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE MAINLY TRAVEL RELATED...WITH SOME LIGHT
ICING POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWOALY AT THIS TIME...BUT IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF FREEZING RAIN...THEN FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND MOHAWK
VALLEY.

SUNDAY...MAIN THRUST OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP MAY
STILL BE ONGOING INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
THEREAFTER...DESPITE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE...ESP FOR AREAS NEAR AND N OF
INTERSTATE 90...WHERE LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST. HAVE SIDED ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MOST AREAS...WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO REACH 45-50 IN VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 50S COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT SHOULD MORE SUNSHINE
BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...AND A HEALTHY SURGE OF MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
JET APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH...RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY FALL
INTO THE 30S IN THE EVENING...BEFORE RISING LATER AT NIGHT WITH
THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET MAX AND WARM ADVECTION. GENERALLY ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION MON MORNING...WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MON AND PASSES THROUGH MON NT.
SO...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE MON MORNING...ESP
ACROSS N/E AREAS...TAPERING TO SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN MON NT WITH THE FROPA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SHOWERS BECOME SCATTERED MON AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW
BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. DEPENDING ON IF ANY SUN
CAN BREAK THROUGH...TEMPS COULD SURGE INTO THE 60S. FOR
NOW...GIVEN THAT IT IS NOVEMBER WITH SUCH A LOW SUN ANGLE...WE
THINK THAT AT LEAST SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY HOLD ON...AND THEREFORE
WENT A BIT COOLER THAN MOST GUIDANCE...WITH MAINLY 55-60 IN
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH
HAVE INCLUDED SOME 60-65 TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT. AGAIN...SHOULD MORE
SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR. SHOWERY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH/END AS SNOW ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARD TUE AM...WITH
MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S.

TUE-TUE NT...AT THIS VANTAGE POINT...APPEARS GRADUAL COOLING COULD
COMMENCE...WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE RATHER
MILD...GENERALLY 50-55 IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TUE NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED...AS THE 00Z/21 GFS AND MOST GEFS INDICATE A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST...KEEPING MOST OF THE
PRECIP WELL E OF THE REGION...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT
THIS WAVE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND THAT PRECIP EXPANDS
ACROSS AT LEAST THE S/E HALF OF THE REGION...IF NOT EVEN FURTHER
N AND W. THIS HAS BEEN A N/W TREND IN THE ECMWF FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OVERALL TRENDS VERY CLOSELY...AS THE
ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS THAT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES POTENTIALLY CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE OFFSHORE WAVE
REMAINS SEPARATE FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE TWO COULD PHASE SHOULD THAT ENERGY DIG MORE
QUICKLY...RESULTING IN A MUCH MORE POTENT EAST COAST STORM SYSTEM.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS FOR AREAS S/E OF ALBANY FOR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX WED...AND SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO ENTITIES...THURSDAY COULD BE RATHER
BLUSTERY WITH AT LEAST SOME PASSING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
TEMPS WED-THU WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL...WITH GENERALLY UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S FOR MAX TEMPS IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS
STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IF A LAKE
BAND OFF ONTARIO SWINGS SOUTH AND COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT THE KALB AND
KPSF AIRPORTS. THE CHANCES ARE SMALL (ABOUT 20 PERCENT) SO FOR
NOW...DID NOT EVEN CARRY THE VCSH BUT WILL MONITOR.

OTHERWISE IT LOOKS CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH
A W TO SW WIND 5-10KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

FRIDAY...AS THE FLOW ALIGNS ITSELF MORE DOWN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...EXPECT STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS GENERALLY 4000-5000 FEET OFF
THE DECK ALONG WITH A GUSTY WIND...UP TO 25KTS AT KALB AND KPSF.

THIS WIND WILL DIMINISH TOWARD DARK AND THE INSTABILITY CLOUDS
SHOULD DISSIPATE LEAVING US WITH A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT FRIDAY AND
MUCH LESS WIND.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...FZRA...SLEET.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK
VALLEY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH TOTAL QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

MILDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY...50S AND LOW 60S MONDAY AND 50S TUESDAY...WITH NIGHTTIME
LOWS MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BRING A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TO THE HSA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL AND MINOR SNOW MELT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...KL/SNYDER/WASULA








000
FXUS61 KALY 210557
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1255 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
OVERNIGHT.  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL IMPACT THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
THE MOHAWK VALLEY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS A MILDER AIR
MASS BUILDS IN TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EST...RADAR INDICATED A PRETTY HEALTHY LAKE BAND
WORKING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL HERKIMER COUNTY AND INTO
SOUTHERN HAMILTON. PER EARLIER CSTAR SNOW STUDIES...SNOWFALL RATES
BASED ON RADARS IMPLY HALF TO AN INCH PER HOUR RATES.

AS THE MEAN WIND FLOW CONTINUE TO BACK...THIS BAND SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND GRADUALLY BECOME FRAGMENTED.

ALSO...DRIER AIR ENTRAINED INTO THE COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW THE BAND
(EVENTUALLY BANDS) TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT NOT BEFORE IT
PUTS DOWN UP TO SEVERAL INCHES OF MORE SNOW.

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

THERE WAS ANOTHER LAKE BAND OFF ERIE...WORKING INTO AREAS WEST OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOWEVER...THIS BAND HAS WEAKENED WITH TIME.

TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S MOST PLACES. COLD
AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THE LAKE BAND. THERE COULD BE A FLURRY OR SNOW
SHOWER HERE AND THERE...BUT NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THESE.

THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE ARCTIC AIR MASS.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S WITH A FEW SPOTTY SINGLE
DIGIT READINGS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES TO MAINLY THE HOURLY GRIDS
KEEPING THE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN TACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY CONTINUES AS MULTIBANDS OVER
CNTRL NY. SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...AND THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS ARE
EXPECTED. THE LOWERING INVERSION ON THE KUCA/KRME SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LESS. OUR HEADLINES ONLY RUN TO
10 AM/WARNING/ AND NOON /ADVISORY/. H850 TEMPS WILL BE A FEW STD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WITH THE GFS HAVING H850 TEMPS OF -14C TO
-16C. MIXED CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE WITH COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO L30S OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS. A FEW M30S WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MAINLY QUIET AND COLD WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OH VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
DRIFT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY SATURDAY. THE LAST VESTIGES
OF THE LAKE EFFECT WILL END WITH THE FLOW BACKING AND THE BAND
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS CNTRL NY. SOME WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL ALSO BE OCCURRING. A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT
WILL SET UP WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS. SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO START THE
DAY. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO M30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS...AND M30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY FROM
THE W/SW WELL IN ADVANCE OF WARM FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND MIDWEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FROM THE GUIDANCE WITH
LIGHT PCPN WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND
THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE. LIGHT SPOTTY MIXED PCPN IS POSSIBLE BASED
ON THE GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. ALSO...A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS
CRITICAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT A LIGHT MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN OVERNIGHT. SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE MAINLY USED FOR MOST
OF THE REGION WITH A SMALL AREA OF LIKELY VALUES OVER THE WRN
DACKS. AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME. LOWS WILL BE EARLY
ON IN THE EVENING IN THE 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THEN RISE
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH RIDGING BUILDING THERE WILL BE DECREASING
CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
POSSIBLE AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH NEAR 50
DEGREE READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD IN TERMS
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...AS A POWERFUL STORM
TRACKS NORTHWARD FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH
A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. MODELS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AROUND ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF
RAINFALL.

MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY TURN OUT TO BE MOSTLY DRY AS ANOTHER WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. WITH A S/SW FLOW AND WARM AIR ALOFT
MOVING IN THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH MIXING TO RESULT IN TEMPS
REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS DESPITE
LIMITED SUNSHINE. THEN THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH THE FLOW ALOFT
REMAINING SOUTHWEST WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS MOVING IN.

AN ADDITIONAL COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH FURTHER COOLING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO GET BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE
POTENTIAL CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS ENERGY MOVES
ACROSS A QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE. MOST SOURCES OF MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATING DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO HAVE AN
IMPACT IN OUR REGION...BUT A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME POSSIBLE
RAIN/SNOW ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM. MAINLY DRY AND
COLDER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS
STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IF A LAKE
BAND OFF ONTARIO SWINGS SOUTH AND COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT THE KALB AND
KPSF AIRPORTS. THE CHANCES ARE SMALL (ABOUT 20 PERCENT) SO FOR
NOW...DID NOT EVEN CARRY THE VCSH BUT WILL MONITOR.

OTHERWISE IT LOOKS CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH
A W TO SW WIND 5-10KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

FRIDAY...AS THE FLOW ALIGNS ITSELF MORE DOWN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...EXPECT STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS GENERALLY 4000-5000 FEET OFF
THE DECK ALONG WITH A GUSTY WIND...UP TO 25KTS AT KALB AND KPSF.

THIS WIND WILL DIMINISH TOWARD DARK AND THE INSTABILITY CLOUDS
SHOULD DISSIPATE LEAVING US WITH A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT FRIDAY AND
MUCH LESS WIND.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...RA...FZRA...SLEET. SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHRA. SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT...WIDESPREAD...HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH TOTAL QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

MILDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY...50S AND LOW 60S MONDAY AND 50S TUESDAY...WITH NIGHTTIME
LOWS MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BRING A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TO THE HSA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL AND MINOR SNOW MELT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ032-033.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/LFM
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA










000
FXUS61 KALY 210557
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1255 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
OVERNIGHT.  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL IMPACT THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
THE MOHAWK VALLEY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS A MILDER AIR
MASS BUILDS IN TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EST...RADAR INDICATED A PRETTY HEALTHY LAKE BAND
WORKING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL HERKIMER COUNTY AND INTO
SOUTHERN HAMILTON. PER EARLIER CSTAR SNOW STUDIES...SNOWFALL RATES
BASED ON RADARS IMPLY HALF TO AN INCH PER HOUR RATES.

AS THE MEAN WIND FLOW CONTINUE TO BACK...THIS BAND SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND GRADUALLY BECOME FRAGMENTED.

ALSO...DRIER AIR ENTRAINED INTO THE COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW THE BAND
(EVENTUALLY BANDS) TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT NOT BEFORE IT
PUTS DOWN UP TO SEVERAL INCHES OF MORE SNOW.

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

THERE WAS ANOTHER LAKE BAND OFF ERIE...WORKING INTO AREAS WEST OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOWEVER...THIS BAND HAS WEAKENED WITH TIME.

TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S MOST PLACES. COLD
AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THE LAKE BAND. THERE COULD BE A FLURRY OR SNOW
SHOWER HERE AND THERE...BUT NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THESE.

THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE ARCTIC AIR MASS.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S WITH A FEW SPOTTY SINGLE
DIGIT READINGS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES TO MAINLY THE HOURLY GRIDS
KEEPING THE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN TACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY CONTINUES AS MULTIBANDS OVER
CNTRL NY. SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...AND THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS ARE
EXPECTED. THE LOWERING INVERSION ON THE KUCA/KRME SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LESS. OUR HEADLINES ONLY RUN TO
10 AM/WARNING/ AND NOON /ADVISORY/. H850 TEMPS WILL BE A FEW STD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WITH THE GFS HAVING H850 TEMPS OF -14C TO
-16C. MIXED CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE WITH COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO L30S OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS. A FEW M30S WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MAINLY QUIET AND COLD WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OH VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
DRIFT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY SATURDAY. THE LAST VESTIGES
OF THE LAKE EFFECT WILL END WITH THE FLOW BACKING AND THE BAND
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS CNTRL NY. SOME WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL ALSO BE OCCURRING. A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT
WILL SET UP WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS. SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO START THE
DAY. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO M30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS...AND M30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY FROM
THE W/SW WELL IN ADVANCE OF WARM FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND MIDWEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FROM THE GUIDANCE WITH
LIGHT PCPN WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND
THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE. LIGHT SPOTTY MIXED PCPN IS POSSIBLE BASED
ON THE GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. ALSO...A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS
CRITICAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT A LIGHT MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN OVERNIGHT. SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE MAINLY USED FOR MOST
OF THE REGION WITH A SMALL AREA OF LIKELY VALUES OVER THE WRN
DACKS. AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME. LOWS WILL BE EARLY
ON IN THE EVENING IN THE 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THEN RISE
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH RIDGING BUILDING THERE WILL BE DECREASING
CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
POSSIBLE AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH NEAR 50
DEGREE READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD IN TERMS
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...AS A POWERFUL STORM
TRACKS NORTHWARD FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH
A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. MODELS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AROUND ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF
RAINFALL.

MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY TURN OUT TO BE MOSTLY DRY AS ANOTHER WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. WITH A S/SW FLOW AND WARM AIR ALOFT
MOVING IN THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH MIXING TO RESULT IN TEMPS
REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS DESPITE
LIMITED SUNSHINE. THEN THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH THE FLOW ALOFT
REMAINING SOUTHWEST WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS MOVING IN.

AN ADDITIONAL COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH FURTHER COOLING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO GET BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE
POTENTIAL CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS ENERGY MOVES
ACROSS A QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE. MOST SOURCES OF MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATING DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO HAVE AN
IMPACT IN OUR REGION...BUT A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME POSSIBLE
RAIN/SNOW ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM. MAINLY DRY AND
COLDER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS
STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IF A LAKE
BAND OFF ONTARIO SWINGS SOUTH AND COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT THE KALB AND
KPSF AIRPORTS. THE CHANCES ARE SMALL (ABOUT 20 PERCENT) SO FOR
NOW...DID NOT EVEN CARRY THE VCSH BUT WILL MONITOR.

OTHERWISE IT LOOKS CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH
A W TO SW WIND 5-10KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

FRIDAY...AS THE FLOW ALIGNS ITSELF MORE DOWN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...EXPECT STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS GENERALLY 4000-5000 FEET OFF
THE DECK ALONG WITH A GUSTY WIND...UP TO 25KTS AT KALB AND KPSF.

THIS WIND WILL DIMINISH TOWARD DARK AND THE INSTABILITY CLOUDS
SHOULD DISSIPATE LEAVING US WITH A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT FRIDAY AND
MUCH LESS WIND.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...RA...FZRA...SLEET. SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHRA. SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT...WIDESPREAD...HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH TOTAL QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

MILDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY...50S AND LOW 60S MONDAY AND 50S TUESDAY...WITH NIGHTTIME
LOWS MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BRING A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TO THE HSA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL AND MINOR SNOW MELT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ032-033.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/LFM
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA










000
FXUS61 KALY 210557
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1255 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
OVERNIGHT.  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL IMPACT THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
THE MOHAWK VALLEY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS A MILDER AIR
MASS BUILDS IN TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EST...RADAR INDICATED A PRETTY HEALTHY LAKE BAND
WORKING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL HERKIMER COUNTY AND INTO
SOUTHERN HAMILTON. PER EARLIER CSTAR SNOW STUDIES...SNOWFALL RATES
BASED ON RADARS IMPLY HALF TO AN INCH PER HOUR RATES.

AS THE MEAN WIND FLOW CONTINUE TO BACK...THIS BAND SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND GRADUALLY BECOME FRAGMENTED.

ALSO...DRIER AIR ENTRAINED INTO THE COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW THE BAND
(EVENTUALLY BANDS) TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT NOT BEFORE IT
PUTS DOWN UP TO SEVERAL INCHES OF MORE SNOW.

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

THERE WAS ANOTHER LAKE BAND OFF ERIE...WORKING INTO AREAS WEST OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOWEVER...THIS BAND HAS WEAKENED WITH TIME.

TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S MOST PLACES. COLD
AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THE LAKE BAND. THERE COULD BE A FLURRY OR SNOW
SHOWER HERE AND THERE...BUT NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THESE.

THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE ARCTIC AIR MASS.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S WITH A FEW SPOTTY SINGLE
DIGIT READINGS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES TO MAINLY THE HOURLY GRIDS
KEEPING THE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN TACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY CONTINUES AS MULTIBANDS OVER
CNTRL NY. SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...AND THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS ARE
EXPECTED. THE LOWERING INVERSION ON THE KUCA/KRME SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LESS. OUR HEADLINES ONLY RUN TO
10 AM/WARNING/ AND NOON /ADVISORY/. H850 TEMPS WILL BE A FEW STD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WITH THE GFS HAVING H850 TEMPS OF -14C TO
-16C. MIXED CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE WITH COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO L30S OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS. A FEW M30S WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MAINLY QUIET AND COLD WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OH VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
DRIFT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY SATURDAY. THE LAST VESTIGES
OF THE LAKE EFFECT WILL END WITH THE FLOW BACKING AND THE BAND
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS CNTRL NY. SOME WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL ALSO BE OCCURRING. A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT
WILL SET UP WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS. SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO START THE
DAY. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO M30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS...AND M30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY FROM
THE W/SW WELL IN ADVANCE OF WARM FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND MIDWEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FROM THE GUIDANCE WITH
LIGHT PCPN WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND
THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE. LIGHT SPOTTY MIXED PCPN IS POSSIBLE BASED
ON THE GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. ALSO...A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS
CRITICAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT A LIGHT MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN OVERNIGHT. SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE MAINLY USED FOR MOST
OF THE REGION WITH A SMALL AREA OF LIKELY VALUES OVER THE WRN
DACKS. AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME. LOWS WILL BE EARLY
ON IN THE EVENING IN THE 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THEN RISE
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH RIDGING BUILDING THERE WILL BE DECREASING
CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
POSSIBLE AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH NEAR 50
DEGREE READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD IN TERMS
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...AS A POWERFUL STORM
TRACKS NORTHWARD FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH
A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. MODELS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AROUND ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF
RAINFALL.

MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY TURN OUT TO BE MOSTLY DRY AS ANOTHER WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. WITH A S/SW FLOW AND WARM AIR ALOFT
MOVING IN THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH MIXING TO RESULT IN TEMPS
REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS DESPITE
LIMITED SUNSHINE. THEN THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH THE FLOW ALOFT
REMAINING SOUTHWEST WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS MOVING IN.

AN ADDITIONAL COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH FURTHER COOLING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO GET BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE
POTENTIAL CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS ENERGY MOVES
ACROSS A QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE. MOST SOURCES OF MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATING DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO HAVE AN
IMPACT IN OUR REGION...BUT A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME POSSIBLE
RAIN/SNOW ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM. MAINLY DRY AND
COLDER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS
STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IF A LAKE
BAND OFF ONTARIO SWINGS SOUTH AND COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT THE KALB AND
KPSF AIRPORTS. THE CHANCES ARE SMALL (ABOUT 20 PERCENT) SO FOR
NOW...DID NOT EVEN CARRY THE VCSH BUT WILL MONITOR.

OTHERWISE IT LOOKS CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH
A W TO SW WIND 5-10KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

FRIDAY...AS THE FLOW ALIGNS ITSELF MORE DOWN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...EXPECT STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS GENERALLY 4000-5000 FEET OFF
THE DECK ALONG WITH A GUSTY WIND...UP TO 25KTS AT KALB AND KPSF.

THIS WIND WILL DIMINISH TOWARD DARK AND THE INSTABILITY CLOUDS
SHOULD DISSIPATE LEAVING US WITH A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT FRIDAY AND
MUCH LESS WIND.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...RA...FZRA...SLEET. SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHRA. SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT...WIDESPREAD...HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH TOTAL QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

MILDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY...50S AND LOW 60S MONDAY AND 50S TUESDAY...WITH NIGHTTIME
LOWS MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BRING A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TO THE HSA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL AND MINOR SNOW MELT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ032-033.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/LFM
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA










000
FXUS61 KALY 210557
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1255 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
OVERNIGHT.  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL IMPACT THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
THE MOHAWK VALLEY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS A MILDER AIR
MASS BUILDS IN TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EST...RADAR INDICATED A PRETTY HEALTHY LAKE BAND
WORKING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL HERKIMER COUNTY AND INTO
SOUTHERN HAMILTON. PER EARLIER CSTAR SNOW STUDIES...SNOWFALL RATES
BASED ON RADARS IMPLY HALF TO AN INCH PER HOUR RATES.

AS THE MEAN WIND FLOW CONTINUE TO BACK...THIS BAND SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND GRADUALLY BECOME FRAGMENTED.

ALSO...DRIER AIR ENTRAINED INTO THE COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW THE BAND
(EVENTUALLY BANDS) TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT NOT BEFORE IT
PUTS DOWN UP TO SEVERAL INCHES OF MORE SNOW.

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

THERE WAS ANOTHER LAKE BAND OFF ERIE...WORKING INTO AREAS WEST OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOWEVER...THIS BAND HAS WEAKENED WITH TIME.

TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S MOST PLACES. COLD
AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THE LAKE BAND. THERE COULD BE A FLURRY OR SNOW
SHOWER HERE AND THERE...BUT NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THESE.

THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE ARCTIC AIR MASS.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S WITH A FEW SPOTTY SINGLE
DIGIT READINGS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES TO MAINLY THE HOURLY GRIDS
KEEPING THE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN TACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY CONTINUES AS MULTIBANDS OVER
CNTRL NY. SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...AND THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS ARE
EXPECTED. THE LOWERING INVERSION ON THE KUCA/KRME SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LESS. OUR HEADLINES ONLY RUN TO
10 AM/WARNING/ AND NOON /ADVISORY/. H850 TEMPS WILL BE A FEW STD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WITH THE GFS HAVING H850 TEMPS OF -14C TO
-16C. MIXED CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE WITH COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO L30S OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS. A FEW M30S WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MAINLY QUIET AND COLD WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OH VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
DRIFT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY SATURDAY. THE LAST VESTIGES
OF THE LAKE EFFECT WILL END WITH THE FLOW BACKING AND THE BAND
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS CNTRL NY. SOME WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL ALSO BE OCCURRING. A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT
WILL SET UP WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS. SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO START THE
DAY. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO M30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS...AND M30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY FROM
THE W/SW WELL IN ADVANCE OF WARM FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND MIDWEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FROM THE GUIDANCE WITH
LIGHT PCPN WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND
THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE. LIGHT SPOTTY MIXED PCPN IS POSSIBLE BASED
ON THE GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. ALSO...A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS
CRITICAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT A LIGHT MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN OVERNIGHT. SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE MAINLY USED FOR MOST
OF THE REGION WITH A SMALL AREA OF LIKELY VALUES OVER THE WRN
DACKS. AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME. LOWS WILL BE EARLY
ON IN THE EVENING IN THE 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THEN RISE
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH RIDGING BUILDING THERE WILL BE DECREASING
CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
POSSIBLE AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH NEAR 50
DEGREE READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD IN TERMS
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...AS A POWERFUL STORM
TRACKS NORTHWARD FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH
A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. MODELS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AROUND ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF
RAINFALL.

MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY TURN OUT TO BE MOSTLY DRY AS ANOTHER WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. WITH A S/SW FLOW AND WARM AIR ALOFT
MOVING IN THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH MIXING TO RESULT IN TEMPS
REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS DESPITE
LIMITED SUNSHINE. THEN THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH THE FLOW ALOFT
REMAINING SOUTHWEST WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS MOVING IN.

AN ADDITIONAL COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH FURTHER COOLING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO GET BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE
POTENTIAL CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS ENERGY MOVES
ACROSS A QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE. MOST SOURCES OF MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATING DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO HAVE AN
IMPACT IN OUR REGION...BUT A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME POSSIBLE
RAIN/SNOW ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM. MAINLY DRY AND
COLDER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS
STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IF A LAKE
BAND OFF ONTARIO SWINGS SOUTH AND COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT THE KALB AND
KPSF AIRPORTS. THE CHANCES ARE SMALL (ABOUT 20 PERCENT) SO FOR
NOW...DID NOT EVEN CARRY THE VCSH BUT WILL MONITOR.

OTHERWISE IT LOOKS CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH
A W TO SW WIND 5-10KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

FRIDAY...AS THE FLOW ALIGNS ITSELF MORE DOWN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...EXPECT STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS GENERALLY 4000-5000 FEET OFF
THE DECK ALONG WITH A GUSTY WIND...UP TO 25KTS AT KALB AND KPSF.

THIS WIND WILL DIMINISH TOWARD DARK AND THE INSTABILITY CLOUDS
SHOULD DISSIPATE LEAVING US WITH A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT FRIDAY AND
MUCH LESS WIND.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...RA...FZRA...SLEET. SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHRA. SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT...WIDESPREAD...HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH TOTAL QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

MILDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY...50S AND LOW 60S MONDAY AND 50S TUESDAY...WITH NIGHTTIME
LOWS MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BRING A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TO THE HSA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL AND MINOR SNOW MELT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ032-033.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/LFM
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA










000
FXUS61 KALY 210549
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1233 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
OVERNIGHT.  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL IMPACT THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
THE MOHAWK VALLEY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS A MILDER AIR
MASS BUILDS IN TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EST...RADAR INDICATED A PRETTY HEALTHY LAKE BAND
WORKING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL HERKIMER COUNTY AND INTO
SOUTHERN HAMILTON. PER EARLIER CSTAR SNOW STUDIES...SNOWFALL RATES
BASED ON RADARS IMPLY HALF TO AN INCH PER HOUR RATES.

AS THE MEAN WIND FLOW CONTINUE TO BACK...THIS BAND SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND GRADUALLY BECOME FRAGMENTED.

ALSO...DRIER AIR ENTRAINED INTO THE COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW THE BAND
(EVENTUALLY BANDS) TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT NOT BEFORE IT
PUTS DOWN UP TO SEVERAL INCHES OF MORE SNOW.

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

THERE WAS ANOTHER LAKE BAND OFF ERIE...WORKING INTO AREAS WEST OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOWEVER...THIS BAND HAS WEAKENED WITH TIME.

TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S MOST PLACES. COLD
AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THE LAKE BAND. THERE COULD BE A FLURRY OR SNOW
SHOWER HERE AND THERE...BUT NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THESE.

THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE ARCTIC AIR MASS.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S WITH A FEW SPOTTY SINGLE
DIGIT READINGS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES TO MAINLY THE HOURLY GRIDS
KEEPING THE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN TACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY CONTINUES AS MULTIBANDS OVER
CNTRL NY. SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...AND THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS ARE
EXPECTED. THE LOWERING INVERSION ON THE KUCA/KRME SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LESS. OUR HEADLINES ONLY RUN TO
10 AM/WARNING/ AND NOON /ADVISORY/. H850 TEMPS WILL BE A FEW STD
DEVS BELOW NORMAL WITH THE GFS HAVING H850 TEMPS OF -14C TO -16C.
MIXED CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE WITH COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO L30S OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS. A FEW M30S WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MAINLY QUIET AND COLD WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OH VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
DRIFT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY SATURDAY. THE LAST VESTIGES
OF THE LAKE EFFECT WILL END WITH THE FLOW BACKING AND THE BAND
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS CNTRL NY. SOME WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL ALSO BE OCCURRING. A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT
WILL SET UP WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS. SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO START THE
DAY. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO M30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS...AND M30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY FROM
THE W/SW WELL IN ADVANCE OF WARM FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND MIDWEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FROM THE GUIDANCE WITH
LIGHT PCPN WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND
THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE. LIGHT SPOTTY MIXED PCPN IS POSSIBLE BASED
ON THE GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. ALSO...A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS
CRITICAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT A LIGHT MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN OVERNIGHT. SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE MAINLY USED FOR MOST
OF THE REGION WITH A SMALL AREA OF LIKELY VALUES OVER THE WRN
DACKS. AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME. LOWS WILL BE EARLY
ON IN THE EVENING IN THE 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THEN RISE
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH RIDGING BUILDING THERE WILL BE DECREASING
CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
POSSIBLE AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH NEAR 50
DEGREE READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD IN TERMS
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...AS A POWERFUL STORM
TRACKS NORTHWARD FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH
A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. MODELS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AROUND ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF
RAINFALL.

MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY TURN OUT TO BE MOSTLY DRY AS ANOTHER WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. WITH A S/SW FLOW AND WARM AIR ALOFT
MOVING IN THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH MIXING TO RESULT IN TEMPS
REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS DESPITE
LIMITED SUNSHINE. THEN THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH THE FLOW ALOFT
REMAINING SOUTHWEST WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS MOVING IN.

AN ADDITIONAL COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH FURTHER COOLING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO GET BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE
POTENTIAL CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS ENERGY MOVES
ACROSS A QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE. MOST SOURCES OF MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATING DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO HAVE AN
IMPACT IN OUR REGION...BUT A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME POSSIBLE
RAIN/SNOW ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM. MAINLY DRY AND
COLDER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPSF INITIALLY DUE TO
A LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR THERE ONCE THE SNOW SHOWER EXITS TO THE EAST.

JUST SOME STRATOCU CLOUDS DUE TO THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TO THE
WEST ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE ACTUAL LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WILL
BE SITUATED WEST OF THE REGION...BUT THE CLOUDS LOOK TO MAKE IT
IN...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHICH WILL BE DIRECTLY IN LINE FROM THE
LAKE ONTARIO BAND BY LATER TONIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN VFR...BUT BKN-
OVC CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT LOOK TO OCCUR. W-NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL BE ABOUT 5-10 KTS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED
VFR CONDITIONS. GOOD MIXING WILL ALLOW WESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE
TO 10-15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WHILE
BKN-OVC CIGS FROM LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS LOOK TO OCCUR IN THE
MORNING...CLOUDS SHOULD START TO SCT OUT BY THE AFTN HOURS...AS
LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY DIMINISHES.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...RA...FZRA...SLEET. SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHRA. SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT...WIDESPREAD...HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH TOTAL QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

MILDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY...50S AND LOW 60S MONDAY AND 50S TUESDAY...WITH NIGHTTIME
LOWS MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BRING A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TO THE HSA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL AND MINOR SNOW MELT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ032-033.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/LFM
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA










000
FXUS61 KALY 210549
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1233 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
OVERNIGHT.  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL IMPACT THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
THE MOHAWK VALLEY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS A MILDER AIR
MASS BUILDS IN TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EST...RADAR INDICATED A PRETTY HEALTHY LAKE BAND
WORKING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL HERKIMER COUNTY AND INTO
SOUTHERN HAMILTON. PER EARLIER CSTAR SNOW STUDIES...SNOWFALL RATES
BASED ON RADARS IMPLY HALF TO AN INCH PER HOUR RATES.

AS THE MEAN WIND FLOW CONTINUE TO BACK...THIS BAND SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND GRADUALLY BECOME FRAGMENTED.

ALSO...DRIER AIR ENTRAINED INTO THE COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW THE BAND
(EVENTUALLY BANDS) TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT NOT BEFORE IT
PUTS DOWN UP TO SEVERAL INCHES OF MORE SNOW.

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

THERE WAS ANOTHER LAKE BAND OFF ERIE...WORKING INTO AREAS WEST OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOWEVER...THIS BAND HAS WEAKENED WITH TIME.

TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S MOST PLACES. COLD
AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THE LAKE BAND. THERE COULD BE A FLURRY OR SNOW
SHOWER HERE AND THERE...BUT NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THESE.

THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE ARCTIC AIR MASS.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S WITH A FEW SPOTTY SINGLE
DIGIT READINGS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES TO MAINLY THE HOURLY GRIDS
KEEPING THE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN TACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY CONTINUES AS MULTIBANDS OVER
CNTRL NY. SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...AND THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS ARE
EXPECTED. THE LOWERING INVERSION ON THE KUCA/KRME SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LESS. OUR HEADLINES ONLY RUN TO
10 AM/WARNING/ AND NOON /ADVISORY/. H850 TEMPS WILL BE A FEW STD
DEVS BELOW NORMAL WITH THE GFS HAVING H850 TEMPS OF -14C TO -16C.
MIXED CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE WITH COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO L30S OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS. A FEW M30S WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MAINLY QUIET AND COLD WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OH VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
DRIFT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY SATURDAY. THE LAST VESTIGES
OF THE LAKE EFFECT WILL END WITH THE FLOW BACKING AND THE BAND
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS CNTRL NY. SOME WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL ALSO BE OCCURRING. A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT
WILL SET UP WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS. SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO START THE
DAY. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO M30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS...AND M30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY FROM
THE W/SW WELL IN ADVANCE OF WARM FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND MIDWEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FROM THE GUIDANCE WITH
LIGHT PCPN WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND
THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE. LIGHT SPOTTY MIXED PCPN IS POSSIBLE BASED
ON THE GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. ALSO...A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS
CRITICAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT A LIGHT MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN OVERNIGHT. SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE MAINLY USED FOR MOST
OF THE REGION WITH A SMALL AREA OF LIKELY VALUES OVER THE WRN
DACKS. AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME. LOWS WILL BE EARLY
ON IN THE EVENING IN THE 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THEN RISE
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH RIDGING BUILDING THERE WILL BE DECREASING
CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
POSSIBLE AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH NEAR 50
DEGREE READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD IN TERMS
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...AS A POWERFUL STORM
TRACKS NORTHWARD FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH
A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. MODELS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AROUND ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF
RAINFALL.

MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY TURN OUT TO BE MOSTLY DRY AS ANOTHER WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. WITH A S/SW FLOW AND WARM AIR ALOFT
MOVING IN THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH MIXING TO RESULT IN TEMPS
REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS DESPITE
LIMITED SUNSHINE. THEN THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH THE FLOW ALOFT
REMAINING SOUTHWEST WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS MOVING IN.

AN ADDITIONAL COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH FURTHER COOLING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO GET BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE
POTENTIAL CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS ENERGY MOVES
ACROSS A QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE. MOST SOURCES OF MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATING DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO HAVE AN
IMPACT IN OUR REGION...BUT A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME POSSIBLE
RAIN/SNOW ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM. MAINLY DRY AND
COLDER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPSF INITIALLY DUE TO
A LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR THERE ONCE THE SNOW SHOWER EXITS TO THE EAST.

JUST SOME STRATOCU CLOUDS DUE TO THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TO THE
WEST ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE ACTUAL LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WILL
BE SITUATED WEST OF THE REGION...BUT THE CLOUDS LOOK TO MAKE IT
IN...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHICH WILL BE DIRECTLY IN LINE FROM THE
LAKE ONTARIO BAND BY LATER TONIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN VFR...BUT BKN-
OVC CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT LOOK TO OCCUR. W-NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL BE ABOUT 5-10 KTS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED
VFR CONDITIONS. GOOD MIXING WILL ALLOW WESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE
TO 10-15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WHILE
BKN-OVC CIGS FROM LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS LOOK TO OCCUR IN THE
MORNING...CLOUDS SHOULD START TO SCT OUT BY THE AFTN HOURS...AS
LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY DIMINISHES.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...RA...FZRA...SLEET. SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHRA. SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT...WIDESPREAD...HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH TOTAL QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

MILDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY...50S AND LOW 60S MONDAY AND 50S TUESDAY...WITH NIGHTTIME
LOWS MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BRING A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TO THE HSA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL AND MINOR SNOW MELT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ032-033.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/LFM
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA










000
FXUS61 KALY 210549
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1233 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
OVERNIGHT.  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL IMPACT THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
THE MOHAWK VALLEY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS A MILDER AIR
MASS BUILDS IN TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EST...RADAR INDICATED A PRETTY HEALTHY LAKE BAND
WORKING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL HERKIMER COUNTY AND INTO
SOUTHERN HAMILTON. PER EARLIER CSTAR SNOW STUDIES...SNOWFALL RATES
BASED ON RADARS IMPLY HALF TO AN INCH PER HOUR RATES.

AS THE MEAN WIND FLOW CONTINUE TO BACK...THIS BAND SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND GRADUALLY BECOME FRAGMENTED.

ALSO...DRIER AIR ENTRAINED INTO THE COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW THE BAND
(EVENTUALLY BANDS) TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT NOT BEFORE IT
PUTS DOWN UP TO SEVERAL INCHES OF MORE SNOW.

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

THERE WAS ANOTHER LAKE BAND OFF ERIE...WORKING INTO AREAS WEST OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOWEVER...THIS BAND HAS WEAKENED WITH TIME.

TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S MOST PLACES. COLD
AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THE LAKE BAND. THERE COULD BE A FLURRY OR SNOW
SHOWER HERE AND THERE...BUT NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THESE.

THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE ARCTIC AIR MASS.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S WITH A FEW SPOTTY SINGLE
DIGIT READINGS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES TO MAINLY THE HOURLY GRIDS
KEEPING THE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN TACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY CONTINUES AS MULTIBANDS OVER
CNTRL NY. SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...AND THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS ARE
EXPECTED. THE LOWERING INVERSION ON THE KUCA/KRME SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LESS. OUR HEADLINES ONLY RUN TO
10 AM/WARNING/ AND NOON /ADVISORY/. H850 TEMPS WILL BE A FEW STD
DEVS BELOW NORMAL WITH THE GFS HAVING H850 TEMPS OF -14C TO -16C.
MIXED CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE WITH COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO L30S OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS. A FEW M30S WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MAINLY QUIET AND COLD WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OH VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
DRIFT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY SATURDAY. THE LAST VESTIGES
OF THE LAKE EFFECT WILL END WITH THE FLOW BACKING AND THE BAND
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS CNTRL NY. SOME WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL ALSO BE OCCURRING. A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT
WILL SET UP WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS. SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO START THE
DAY. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO M30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS...AND M30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY FROM
THE W/SW WELL IN ADVANCE OF WARM FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND MIDWEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FROM THE GUIDANCE WITH
LIGHT PCPN WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND
THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE. LIGHT SPOTTY MIXED PCPN IS POSSIBLE BASED
ON THE GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. ALSO...A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS
CRITICAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT A LIGHT MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN OVERNIGHT. SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE MAINLY USED FOR MOST
OF THE REGION WITH A SMALL AREA OF LIKELY VALUES OVER THE WRN
DACKS. AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME. LOWS WILL BE EARLY
ON IN THE EVENING IN THE 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THEN RISE
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH RIDGING BUILDING THERE WILL BE DECREASING
CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
POSSIBLE AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH NEAR 50
DEGREE READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD IN TERMS
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...AS A POWERFUL STORM
TRACKS NORTHWARD FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH
A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. MODELS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AROUND ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF
RAINFALL.

MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY TURN OUT TO BE MOSTLY DRY AS ANOTHER WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. WITH A S/SW FLOW AND WARM AIR ALOFT
MOVING IN THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH MIXING TO RESULT IN TEMPS
REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS DESPITE
LIMITED SUNSHINE. THEN THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH THE FLOW ALOFT
REMAINING SOUTHWEST WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS MOVING IN.

AN ADDITIONAL COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH FURTHER COOLING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO GET BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE
POTENTIAL CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS ENERGY MOVES
ACROSS A QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE. MOST SOURCES OF MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATING DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO HAVE AN
IMPACT IN OUR REGION...BUT A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME POSSIBLE
RAIN/SNOW ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM. MAINLY DRY AND
COLDER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPSF INITIALLY DUE TO
A LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR THERE ONCE THE SNOW SHOWER EXITS TO THE EAST.

JUST SOME STRATOCU CLOUDS DUE TO THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TO THE
WEST ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE ACTUAL LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WILL
BE SITUATED WEST OF THE REGION...BUT THE CLOUDS LOOK TO MAKE IT
IN...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHICH WILL BE DIRECTLY IN LINE FROM THE
LAKE ONTARIO BAND BY LATER TONIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN VFR...BUT BKN-
OVC CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT LOOK TO OCCUR. W-NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL BE ABOUT 5-10 KTS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED
VFR CONDITIONS. GOOD MIXING WILL ALLOW WESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE
TO 10-15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WHILE
BKN-OVC CIGS FROM LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS LOOK TO OCCUR IN THE
MORNING...CLOUDS SHOULD START TO SCT OUT BY THE AFTN HOURS...AS
LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY DIMINISHES.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...RA...FZRA...SLEET. SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHRA. SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT...WIDESPREAD...HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH TOTAL QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

MILDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY...50S AND LOW 60S MONDAY AND 50S TUESDAY...WITH NIGHTTIME
LOWS MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BRING A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TO THE HSA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL AND MINOR SNOW MELT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ032-033.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/LFM
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA










000
FXUS61 KALY 210549
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1233 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
OVERNIGHT.  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL IMPACT THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
THE MOHAWK VALLEY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS A MILDER AIR
MASS BUILDS IN TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EST...RADAR INDICATED A PRETTY HEALTHY LAKE BAND
WORKING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL HERKIMER COUNTY AND INTO
SOUTHERN HAMILTON. PER EARLIER CSTAR SNOW STUDIES...SNOWFALL RATES
BASED ON RADARS IMPLY HALF TO AN INCH PER HOUR RATES.

AS THE MEAN WIND FLOW CONTINUE TO BACK...THIS BAND SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND GRADUALLY BECOME FRAGMENTED.

ALSO...DRIER AIR ENTRAINED INTO THE COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW THE BAND
(EVENTUALLY BANDS) TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT NOT BEFORE IT
PUTS DOWN UP TO SEVERAL INCHES OF MORE SNOW.

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

THERE WAS ANOTHER LAKE BAND OFF ERIE...WORKING INTO AREAS WEST OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOWEVER...THIS BAND HAS WEAKENED WITH TIME.

TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S MOST PLACES. COLD
AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THE LAKE BAND. THERE COULD BE A FLURRY OR SNOW
SHOWER HERE AND THERE...BUT NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THESE.

THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE ARCTIC AIR MASS.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S WITH A FEW SPOTTY SINGLE
DIGIT READINGS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES TO MAINLY THE HOURLY GRIDS
KEEPING THE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN TACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY CONTINUES AS MULTIBANDS OVER
CNTRL NY. SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY...AND THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS ARE
EXPECTED. THE LOWERING INVERSION ON THE KUCA/KRME SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LESS. OUR HEADLINES ONLY RUN TO
10 AM/WARNING/ AND NOON /ADVISORY/. H850 TEMPS WILL BE A FEW STD
DEVS BELOW NORMAL WITH THE GFS HAVING H850 TEMPS OF -14C TO -16C.
MIXED CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE WITH COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO L30S OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS. A FEW M30S WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MAINLY QUIET AND COLD WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OH VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
DRIFT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY SATURDAY. THE LAST VESTIGES
OF THE LAKE EFFECT WILL END WITH THE FLOW BACKING AND THE BAND
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS CNTRL NY. SOME WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL ALSO BE OCCURRING. A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT
WILL SET UP WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS
OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS. SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO START THE
DAY. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO M30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS...AND M30S TO L40S IN THE
VALLEYS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY FROM
THE W/SW WELL IN ADVANCE OF WARM FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND MIDWEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FROM THE GUIDANCE WITH
LIGHT PCPN WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND
THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE. LIGHT SPOTTY MIXED PCPN IS POSSIBLE BASED
ON THE GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. ALSO...A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS
CRITICAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT A LIGHT MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN OVERNIGHT. SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE MAINLY USED FOR MOST
OF THE REGION WITH A SMALL AREA OF LIKELY VALUES OVER THE WRN
DACKS. AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME. LOWS WILL BE EARLY
ON IN THE EVENING IN THE 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THEN RISE
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH RIDGING BUILDING THERE WILL BE DECREASING
CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH A FEW BREAKS OF SUNSHINE
POSSIBLE AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH NEAR 50
DEGREE READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD IN TERMS
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...AS A POWERFUL STORM
TRACKS NORTHWARD FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH
A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. MODELS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AROUND ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF
RAINFALL.

MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY TURN OUT TO BE MOSTLY DRY AS ANOTHER WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. WITH A S/SW FLOW AND WARM AIR ALOFT
MOVING IN THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH MIXING TO RESULT IN TEMPS
REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS DESPITE
LIMITED SUNSHINE. THEN THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH THE FLOW ALOFT
REMAINING SOUTHWEST WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS MOVING IN.

AN ADDITIONAL COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH FURTHER COOLING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO GET BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE
POTENTIAL CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS ENERGY MOVES
ACROSS A QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE. MOST SOURCES OF MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATING DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO HAVE AN
IMPACT IN OUR REGION...BUT A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME POSSIBLE
RAIN/SNOW ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM. MAINLY DRY AND
COLDER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPSF INITIALLY DUE TO
A LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR THERE ONCE THE SNOW SHOWER EXITS TO THE EAST.

JUST SOME STRATOCU CLOUDS DUE TO THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TO THE
WEST ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE ACTUAL LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WILL
BE SITUATED WEST OF THE REGION...BUT THE CLOUDS LOOK TO MAKE IT
IN...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHICH WILL BE DIRECTLY IN LINE FROM THE
LAKE ONTARIO BAND BY LATER TONIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN VFR...BUT BKN-
OVC CIGS AROUND 3500-5000 FT LOOK TO OCCUR. W-NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL BE ABOUT 5-10 KTS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED
VFR CONDITIONS. GOOD MIXING WILL ALLOW WESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE
TO 10-15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WHILE
BKN-OVC CIGS FROM LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS LOOK TO OCCUR IN THE
MORNING...CLOUDS SHOULD START TO SCT OUT BY THE AFTN HOURS...AS
LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY DIMINISHES.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...RA...FZRA...SLEET. SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHRA. SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT...WIDESPREAD...HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HSA THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK REGION AND THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH TOTAL QPF LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

MILDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY...50S AND LOW 60S MONDAY AND 50S TUESDAY...WITH NIGHTTIME
LOWS MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BRING A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TO THE HSA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE RAINFALL AND MINOR SNOW MELT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ032-033.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/HWJIV/LFM
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA










000
FXUS61 KBTV 210540
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1240 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. OTHER THAN SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...DRY AND COLD WEATHER CONTINUES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IT WILL REMAIN COLD
AND DRY ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EST FRIDAY...SCT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED MAINLY
OVER NRN NY AS TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. EXPECT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF VT TO SEE SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS SEEING SOME FLURRIES. LESS THAN AN
INCH OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, CLOUDS HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 15-20KTS
OUT OF THE SW WILL SHIFT NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 328 PM EST THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION TO
TAKE PLACE AND BRING COLDER AIR DOWN FROM CANADA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 20S...TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL
BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY. EVENTUALLY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR ALL AREAS. SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...WHICH WILL BE 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD
THOUGH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING LEAVING THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY.

SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MEAN
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATING ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AND MVFR VIS IN SNOW
SHOWERS AT KSLK FOR FIRST FEW HOURS. UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
REGION, BRINGING MOISTURE AND SOME LOWER CIGS. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNING NORTHWEST AND UPSLOPE AT KSLK TOUCHING OFF SOME SNOW
SHOWERS. ALSO ADDED VCSH AT KMPV BUT KEPT SNOW OUT OF LIMIT TO
VISIBILITY. MVFR CIGS TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED FROM MID MORNING ON
IN DRYING AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES ON. SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE DURING DAYTIME HOURS THEN WILL SUBSIDE HEADING TOWARD
00Z.


OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...HANSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 210533
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1233 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. OTHER THAN SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...DRY AND COLD WEATHER CONTINUES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IT WILL REMAIN COLD
AND DRY ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EST THURSDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF OF LAKE
ONTARIO HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF SAINT LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES
IN NEW YORK...SO ALL HEADLINES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW DROPPED WITH
LATEST UPDATE. THE BAND DOES EXTEND EAST INTO SOUTHERN ESSEX
COUNTY NY...THEN WEAKENS FURTHER AS IT TRANSLATES INTO CENTRAL
VERMONT. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN ESSEX
COUNTY NY AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT...BUT
FOR THE MOST PART THE LAKE EFFECT EVENT FOR OUR CWA HAS ENDED.

HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS POPS AND SKY COVER TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST CONDITIONS. STILL EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN SNOW
SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...AS SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH WINDS TURNING
INTO THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS MORNING. STILL LOOKING AT MIN TEMPS IN
THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 328 PM EST THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION TO
TAKE PLACE AND BRING COLDER AIR DOWN FROM CANADA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 20S...TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL
BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY. EVENTUALLY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR ALL AREAS. SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...WHICH WILL BE 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD
THOUGH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING LEAVING THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY.

SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MEAN
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATING ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AND MVFR VIS IN SNOW
SHOWERS AT KSLK FOR FIRST FEW HOURS. UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
REGION, BRINGING MOISTURE AND SOME LOWER CIGS. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNING NORTHWEST AND UPSLOPE AT KSLK TOUCHING OFF SOME SNOW
SHOWERS. ALSO ADDED VCSH AT KMPV BUT KEPT SNOW OUT OF LIMIT TO
VISIBILITY. MVFR CIGS TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED FROM MID MORNING ON
IN DRYING AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES ON. SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE DURING DAYTIME HOURS THEN WILL SUBSIDE HEADING TOWARD
00Z.


OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...HANSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 210533
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1233 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. OTHER THAN SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...DRY AND COLD WEATHER CONTINUES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IT WILL REMAIN COLD
AND DRY ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EST THURSDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF OF LAKE
ONTARIO HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF SAINT LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES
IN NEW YORK...SO ALL HEADLINES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW DROPPED WITH
LATEST UPDATE. THE BAND DOES EXTEND EAST INTO SOUTHERN ESSEX
COUNTY NY...THEN WEAKENS FURTHER AS IT TRANSLATES INTO CENTRAL
VERMONT. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN ESSEX
COUNTY NY AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT...BUT
FOR THE MOST PART THE LAKE EFFECT EVENT FOR OUR CWA HAS ENDED.

HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS POPS AND SKY COVER TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST CONDITIONS. STILL EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN SNOW
SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...AS SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH WINDS TURNING
INTO THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS MORNING. STILL LOOKING AT MIN TEMPS IN
THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 328 PM EST THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION TO
TAKE PLACE AND BRING COLDER AIR DOWN FROM CANADA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 20S...TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL
BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY. EVENTUALLY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR ALL AREAS. SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...WHICH WILL BE 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD
THOUGH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING LEAVING THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY.

SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MEAN
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATING ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AND MVFR VIS IN SNOW
SHOWERS AT KSLK FOR FIRST FEW HOURS. UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
REGION, BRINGING MOISTURE AND SOME LOWER CIGS. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNING NORTHWEST AND UPSLOPE AT KSLK TOUCHING OFF SOME SNOW
SHOWERS. ALSO ADDED VCSH AT KMPV BUT KEPT SNOW OUT OF LIMIT TO
VISIBILITY. MVFR CIGS TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED FROM MID MORNING ON
IN DRYING AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES ON. SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE DURING DAYTIME HOURS THEN WILL SUBSIDE HEADING TOWARD
00Z.


OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...HANSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 210248
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
948 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. OTHER THAN SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...DRY AND COLD WEATHER CONTINUES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IT WILL REMAIN COLD
AND DRY ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EST THURSDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF OF LAKE
ONTARIO HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF SAINT LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES
IN NEW YORK...SO ALL HEADLINES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW DROPPED WITH
LATEST UPDATE. THE BAND DOES EXTEND EAST INTO SOUTHERN ESSEX
COUNTY NY...THEN WEAKENS FURTHER AS IT TRANSLATES INTO CENTRAL
VERMONT. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN ESSEX
COUNTY NY AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT...BUT
FOR THE MOST PART THE LAKE EFFECT EVENT FOR OUR CWA HAS ENDED.

HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS POPS AND SKY COVER TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST CONDITIONS. STILL EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN SNOW
SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...AS SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH WINDS TURNING
INTO THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS MORNING. STILL LOOKING AT MIN TEMPS IN
THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 328 PM EST THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION TO
TAKE PLACE AND BRING COLDER AIR DOWN FROM CANADA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 20S...TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL
BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY. EVENTUALLY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR ALL AREAS. SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...WHICH WILL BE 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD
THOUGH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING LEAVING THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY.

SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MEAN
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATING ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSLK VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE SNOW BAND AT KSLK HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT SOUTH AND SHOULD BE DONE
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTING THE AIRPORT HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE BAND CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH. THE BAND
HAS BROKEN UP ENOUGH THAT SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST I DON`T
HAVE CONFIDENCE THAT THE BAND COULD REACH EITHER KRUT OR KMPV AT
THIS TIME. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING IN A SLUG OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
SHOULD DROP ALL SITES TO MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FOR THE KSLK/KMSS SITES AROUND 05-06Z WITH
THE REST DROPPING TO MVFR BY 12Z. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEST TO
WEST SOUTH WEST BEFORE SHIFTING OVERNIGHT TO NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW
MORNING. EXPECT THEM TO STILL BE MODERATE OVERNIGHT IN THE 7-13 KT
RANGE AND WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE LATE MORNING/ EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON/RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...DEAL/LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 210248
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
948 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. OTHER THAN SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...DRY AND COLD WEATHER CONTINUES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IT WILL REMAIN COLD
AND DRY ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EST THURSDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF OF LAKE
ONTARIO HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF SAINT LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES
IN NEW YORK...SO ALL HEADLINES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW DROPPED WITH
LATEST UPDATE. THE BAND DOES EXTEND EAST INTO SOUTHERN ESSEX
COUNTY NY...THEN WEAKENS FURTHER AS IT TRANSLATES INTO CENTRAL
VERMONT. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN ESSEX
COUNTY NY AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT...BUT
FOR THE MOST PART THE LAKE EFFECT EVENT FOR OUR CWA HAS ENDED.

HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS POPS AND SKY COVER TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST CONDITIONS. STILL EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN SNOW
SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...AS SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH WINDS TURNING
INTO THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS MORNING. STILL LOOKING AT MIN TEMPS IN
THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 328 PM EST THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION TO
TAKE PLACE AND BRING COLDER AIR DOWN FROM CANADA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 20S...TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL
BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY. EVENTUALLY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR ALL AREAS. SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...WHICH WILL BE 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EST THURSDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD
THOUGH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING LEAVING THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH
COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMS SIGNIFICANTLY.

SHOWERS TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
INTL BORDER PLACING THE BTV CWA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MEAN
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +8-10C SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FLOW BACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT STARTING AS RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DOESN`T REALLY MOVE IN UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT SO
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY AND ONLY RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.

SURFACE COLD FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPS COOLING OFF TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO MOST OF THE REGION
SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATING ALOFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSLK VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE SNOW BAND AT KSLK HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT SOUTH AND SHOULD BE DONE
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTING THE AIRPORT HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE BAND CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH. THE BAND
HAS BROKEN UP ENOUGH THAT SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST I DON`T
HAVE CONFIDENCE THAT THE BAND COULD REACH EITHER KRUT OR KMPV AT
THIS TIME. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING IN A SLUG OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
SHOULD DROP ALL SITES TO MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FOR THE KSLK/KMSS SITES AROUND 05-06Z WITH
THE REST DROPPING TO MVFR BY 12Z. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEST TO
WEST SOUTH WEST BEFORE SHIFTING OVERNIGHT TO NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW
MORNING. EXPECT THEM TO STILL BE MODERATE OVERNIGHT IN THE 7-13 KT
RANGE AND WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE LATE MORNING/ EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY - 00Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

00Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON/RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...DEAL/LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 210238
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
938 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
TONIGHT.  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL IMPACT THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
THE MOHAWK VALLEY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS A MILDER AIR
MASS BUILDS IN TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 937 PM EST...A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES UNTIL 10 AM EDT...WITH A
LAKE EFFECT ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY FROM MIDNIGHT
UNTIL NOONTIME. THE AXIS OF THE INTENSE BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO IS
NOW RIGHT OVER THE OLD FORGE AREA. THIS FITS WITH WHAT IS SHOWN IN
BOTH OUR LOCAL HIRESWRF AND THE 4KM WFO BTV WRF. IN-CONJUNCTION
WITH THE LOCAL MODELS...THE 21/00Z KALB SOUNDING SHOWS A RATHER
DEEP SFC TO 700 MB DALR WITH SOME MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH A
STRONG WSW WIND ALOFT STEERING THE BAND AND ITS INLAND EXTENT.
THESE HEAVY SNOW RATES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THE MESOSCALE MODELS AND THE 3-KM HRRR INDICATING THE FLOW
VEERING...AND THE BAND PIVOTING S/SE INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN
06Z-12Z. WE ARE EXPECTING WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL FROM OLD
FORGE...EAGLE BAY...AND INLET NORTH AND WEST WITH 8-16 INCHES
POSSIBLE. FURTHER SOUTH IN THE WARNING AREAS EXPECT 6-12 INCHES.
THE LAKE EFFECT ADVISORY AREA WILL RECEIVE 2 TO 6 INCHES. WE HAVE
RECEIVED SOME REPORTS ALREADY CLOSE TO 6 INCHES IN PARTS OF
EXTREME WESTERN HAMILTON COUNTY. THE BAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
CRUMBLE SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...AND THE NW FLOW TRAJECTORY FAVOR MULTI