[top]
000
FXUS61 KALY 242356
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
756 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL PROMOTE COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
A RETURN OF WARMER WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 755 PM EDT...RAIN CONTINUES TO COVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS CVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVERSPREADS A
REGION OF LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW IS STARTING TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE FROM THE GULF OF
MAINE TO NEAR CAPE COD. THE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN OF A PERSISTENT
STRATIFORM NATURE...UNLIKE THE HEAVY CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS
EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. GENERALLY EXPECTING
RAINFALL RATES AROUND ONE TO PERHAPS TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH PER
HOUR.
TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE CHILLY FOR EVENING IN LATE MAY...WITH
WIDESPREAD 40S AND EVEN SOME UPPER 30S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FAVORABLE QG DYNAMICS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW OBTAINS A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT WITH HEIGHT. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HELPING TO
TRANSPORT ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
VIA A COLD CONVEYOR BELT. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYNOPTIC
FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF AN
INCH...WITH RAINFALL RATES AGAIN AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH PER
HOUR.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLIGHTLY INITIALLY DUE TO CAA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND THEN HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE 12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT HANDLING
THE PROGRESSION/EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW/COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HAVE LARGELY TAKEN A BLENDED
APPROACH DURING THIS TIME FRAME...LEANING TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MAINTAINS A
NEGATIVE TILT SATURDAY...COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE OFF
THE MASSACHUSETTS COAST AIDED BY A WEAK PV LOBE AND FAVORABLE QG
DYNAMICS. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL ACT IN TANDEM TO ENHANCE
ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD CONVEYOR BELT. THIS
CONVEYOR BELT WILL HELP THROW BACK ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND PROMOTE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING VERTICALLY-STACKED WITH THE COASTAL LOW. THESE
FEATURES WILL LIFT OUT OF THE REGION FOR SUNDAY...WITH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WILL RANGE FROM HALF AN INCH IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS TO TWO INCHES ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT. SEE THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT
HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO MEMORIAL DAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL FEEL MORE LIKE NOVEMBER AS HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO MAKE IT INTO THE MID 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS WILL RETURN
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR MEMORIAL DAY GENERALLY IN LOW 60S TO LOW
70S. LOWS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
LOW 30S TO LOW 40S.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY DURING THE WEEKEND...AS A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5-10 MPH FOR MONDAY.
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN PORTIONS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FROST ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A WARMING TREND WITH A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE TEMPS AT THE START...AND EVENTUALLY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. STILL COOL MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BUT TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
THE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THURSDAY AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. FAIR AND VERY WARM WEATHER
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES
HOLD.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW OR MID 70S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT 50 TO 60.
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RAIN HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
SETTLES IN OVER COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. A MOIST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT TO ALL OF THE TERMINALS. FLYING
CONDITIONS PREDOMINANTLY EXPECTED TO BE MVFR...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
BE SOME PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHEN PERSISTENT
MODERATE RAIN FALLS. CONDITIONS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
AFTER 06Z AND INTO MUCH OF SATURDAY AS BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WILL MENTION MVFR FOR NOW WITH TIME FOR
REFINEMENT IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES. OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE REMAINING STATIONARY
ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KT WITH
GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KT...THEN BECOMING STEADY AROUND 10 KT OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO 12 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO
30 KTS DUE TO LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SUN NIGHT-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
WED...VFR. MVFR PSBL WITH CHC PM SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL PROMOTE SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE AN
ADDITIONAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY GENERALLY
10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5-10 MPH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RH LEVELS DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WILL BE ABOVE 30
PERCENT...WITH RH LEVELS DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 60-80 PERCENT AND NORMAL OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES BETWEEN 80-100
PERCENT. RH LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 35-55 PERCENT
RANGE WITH NORMAL OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES BETWEEN 80-100 PERCENT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STRATIFORM RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING THAT WILL BRING A HALF INCH TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS NORTH AND EAST.
ALTHOUGH THIS RAINFALL WILL COME ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS FROM
RECENT HEAVY/TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...RAINFALL RATES OF ONLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR
WILL ALLOW LOCAL WATERSHEDS ENOUGH TIME TO RECOVER WITH ONLY MODEST
WITHIN BANK RISES.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL/JPV
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IRL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
000
FXUS61 KALY 242123
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
523 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL PROMOTE COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN OF WARMER WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 5 PM EDT...SHOWER COVERAGE HAS EXPANDED TO COVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS CVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVERSPREADS A REGION OF LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT. THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OF A PERSISTENT STRATIFORM
NATURE...UNLIKE THE HEAVY CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS EXPERIENCED OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. GENERALLY EXPECT ANYWHERE FROM A TENTH TO
A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
RAINFALL RATES UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR.
HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED THEIR PEAK FOR THE DAY...ONLY
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE LATE-FALL RATHER THAN LATE-SPRING.
TONIGHT...FAVORABLE QG DYNAMICS OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS THE
UPPER LOW OBTAINS A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT WITH HEIGHT. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD HELPING TO THROW ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA VIA A COLD CONVEYER BELT. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH...WITH RAINFALL RATES
AGAIN AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLIGHTLY INITIALLY DUE TO CAA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND THEN HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE 12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT HANDLING
THE PROGRESSION/EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW/COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HAVE LARGELY TAKEN A BLENDED
APPROACH DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...LEANING TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MAINTAINS A
NEGATIVE TILT SATURDAY...COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE OFF
THE MASSACHUSETTS COAST AIDED BY A WEAK PV LOBE AND FAVORABLE QG
DYNAMICS. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL ACT IN TANDEM TO ENHANCE
ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD CONVEYER BELT. THIS
CONVEYER BELT WILL HELP THROW BACK ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND PROMOTE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING VERTICALLY-STACKED WITH THE COASTAL LOW. THESE
FEATURES WILL LIFT OUT OF THE REGION FOR SUNDAY...WITH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WILL RANGE FROM HALF AN INCH IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS TO TWO INCHES ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT. SEE THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT
HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO MEMORIAL DAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL FEEL MORE LIKE NOVEMBER AS HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO MAKE IT INTO THE MID 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS WILL RETURN
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR MEMORIAL DAY GENERALLY IN LOW 60S TO LOW
70S. LOWS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
LOW 30S TO LOW 40S.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY DURING THE WEEKEND...AS A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5-10 MPH FOR MONDAY.
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN PORTIONS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FROST ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A WARMING TREND WITH A RETURN TO
SEASONABLE TEMPS AT THE START...AND EVENTUALLY WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. STILL COOL MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BUT TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
THE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...DECREASING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THURSDAY AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. FAIR AND VERY WARM WEATHER
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES
HOLD.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW OR MID 70S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT 50 TO 60.
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STEADIER RAIN HAS MOVED ACROSS THE TAF SITES EXCEPT AT KPSF AS AS
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN.
EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE TAFS FOR
SATURDAY SO HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH VFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS FM
12Z TO 18Z SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT AROUND 10 KT WITH
GUSTS 15 KT TO 20 KT...THEN JUST BECOME STEADY AT AROUND 10 KT
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY OUT OF THE NORTH
AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR/IFR. -SHRA LIKELY. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SAT NGT-SUN...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SUN NGT-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
WED...VFR. MVFR PSBL WITH CHC -SHRA/-TSRA DURING THE AFT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL PROMOTE SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE AN
ADDITIONAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY GENERALLY
10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5-10 MPH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RH LEVELS DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WILL BE ABOVE 30
PERCENT...WITH RH LEVELS DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 60-80 PERCENT AND NORMAL OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES BETWEEN 80-100
PERCENT. RH LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 35-55 PERCENT
RANGE WITH NORMAL OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES BETWEEN 80-100 PERCENT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STRATIFORM RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING THAT WILL BRING A HALF INCH TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS NORTH AND EAST.
ALTHOUGH THIS RAINFALL WILL COME ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS FROM
RECENT HEAVY/TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...RAINFALL RATES OF ONLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR
WILL ALLOW LOCAL WATERSHEDS ENOUGH TIME TO RECOVER WITH ONLY MODEST
WITHIN BANK RISES.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...IRL
HYDROLOGY...IRL
000
FXUS61 KALY 242104
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
504 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL PROMOTE COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN OF WARMER WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 5 PM EDT...SHOWER COVERAGE HAS EXPANDED TO COVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS CVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVERSPREADS A REGION OF LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT. THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OF A PERSISTENT STRATIFORM
NATURE...UNLIKE THE HEAVY CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS EXPERIENCED OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. GENERALLY EXPECT ANYWHERE FROM A TENTH TO
A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
RAINFALL RATES UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR.
HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED THEIR PEAK FOR THE DAY...ONLY
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE LATE-FALL RATHER THAN LATE-SPRING.
TONIGHT...FAVORABLE QG DYNAMICS OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS THE
UPPER LOW OBTAINS A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT WITH HEIGHT. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD HELPING TO THROW ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA VIA A COLD CONVEYER BELT. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH...WITH RAINFALL RATES
AGAIN AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLIGHTLY INITIALLY DUE TO CAA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND THEN HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE 12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT HANDLING
THE PROGRESSION/EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW/COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HAVE LARGELY TAKEN A BLENDED
APPROACH DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...LEANING TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MAINTAINS A
NEGATIVE TILT SATURDAY...COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE OFF
THE MASSACHUSETTS COAST AIDED BY A WEAK PV LOBE AND FAVORABLE QG
DYNAMICS. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL ACT IN TANDEM TO ENHANCE
ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD CONVEYER BELT. THIS
CONVEYER BELT WILL HELP THROW BACK ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND PROMOTE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT.
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING VERTICALLY-STACKED WITH THE COASTAL LOW. THESE
FEATURES WILL LIFT OUT OF THE REGION FOR SUNDAY...WITH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WILL RANGE FROM HALF AN INCH IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS TO TWO INCHES ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT. SEE THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT
HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO MEMORIAL DAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL FEEL MORE LIKE NOVEMBER AS HIGHS STRUGGLE
TO MAKE IT INTO THE MID 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS WILL RETURN
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR MEMORIAL DAY GENERALLY IN LOW 60S TO LOW
70S. LOWS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
LOW 30S TO LOW 40S.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY DURING THE WEEKEND...AS A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5-10 MPH FOR MONDAY.
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN PORTIONS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FROST ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COMING SOON...
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STEADIER RAIN HAS MOVED ACROSS THE TAF SITES EXCEPT AT KPSF AS AS
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN.
EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE TAFS FOR
SATURDAY SO HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH VFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS FM
12Z TO 18Z SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT AROUND 10 KT WITH
GUSTS 15 KT TO 20 KT...THEN JUST BECOME STEADY AT AROUND 10 KT
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY OUT OF THE NORTH
AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR/IFR. -SHRA LIKELY. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SAT NGT-SUN...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SUN NGT-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
WED...VFR. MVFR PSBL WITH CHC -SHRA/-TSRA DURING THE AFT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL PROMOTE SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE AN
ADDITIONAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY GENERALLY
10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5-10 MPH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RH LEVELS DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WILL BE ABOVE 30
PERCENT...WITH RH LEVELS DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 60-80 PERCENT AND NORMAL OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES BETWEEN 80-100
PERCENT. RH LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 35-55 PERCENT
RANGE WITH NORMAL OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES BETWEEN 80-100 PERCENT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STRATIFORM RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING THAT WILL BRING A HALF INCH TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS NORTH AND EAST.
ALTHOUGH THIS RAINFALL WILL COME ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS FROM
RECENT HEAVY/TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...RAINFALL RATES OF ONLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR
WILL ALLOW LOCAL WATERSHEDS ENOUGH TIME TO RECOVER WITH ONLY MODEST
WITHIN BANK RISES.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...IRL
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...IRL
HYDROLOGY...IRL
[top]
000
FXUS61 KBTV 242007
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
407 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD...AND IN
SOME CASES FLOODING RAINFALL TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CHILLY AND BREEZY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH GRADUALLY MODERATE BY MONDAY AS DRY WEATHER RETURNS.
THEREAFTER...WARM TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RETURN BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS MORE OR LESS ON TRACK
FOR TONIGHT AS DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION
AND BECOMES GRADUALLY NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER TIME. AS THIS
OCCURS...UPPER ENERGY WILL CAPTURE A DEVELOPING SFC LOW RIDING
NORTHEAST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AND DRIVE COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. INCREASING
OMEGA/FRONTOGENTICAL FORCING ALONG WITH FAVORABLE LOW TRACK ALL
ARGUE FOR CONTINUED CATEGORICAL POPS (90-100%) THROUGH THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. AFTER A
PERIOD OF EARLY EVENING SHOWERS...THE FAR WEST...NAMELY THE SLV
WILL TREND DRIER. LOWS QUITE CHILLY UNDER CONTINUED NORTHERLY
BREEZES...GENERALLY 35 TO 45 WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE ABOVE 3000 FEET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT FRIDAY...BY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...DEEP
UPPER CLOSED H5 TROUGH AND CAPTURED/OCCLUDING SFC LOW NEAR THE
GULF OF MAINE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR AREA WITH WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD.
IMPRESSIVE OMEGA/FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING CONTINUES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
VERMONT COUNTIES WHERE WIDESPREAD ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCH RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE LIKELY. THIS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC GIVEN OUR RECENT
BOUT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH
SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES
(SEE HYDRO DISC BELOW).
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN CHILLY UNDER STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 40S FROM THE ADIRONDACKS
EASTWARD...THOUGH MILDER ACROSS THE SLV WHERE LACK OF DYNAMICAL
COOLING AFFECTS FROM PRECIPITATION WILL ALLOW READINGS TO CLIMB INTO
THE 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...35 TO 45 WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT TO MODEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AT THE
SUMMIT LEVEL ABOVE 2500-3000 FEET.
BY SUNDAY...DEEP UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO FILL AND BEGIN TO TRUDGE
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THUS SHOWERY WEATHER IN THE
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY END OVER TIME AS SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE. HIGHS A TAD MILDER FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S DACKS EAST...AND 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE SLV BY DAYS END
WHERE SOME SUN POSSIBLE LATE.
CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE TO IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH
LOSES INFLUENCE AND IS REPLACED BY BROAD RIDGING IN THE LOWER TO MID
LEVELS MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES. SKIES SHOULD
GRADUALLY TREND PTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS LOWS BOTTOM OUT
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN FAIR
AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THRU
THE FIVE-DAY PERIOD AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS REPLACES THE EXITING LOW FROM
THE WEEKEND. SOME CLDS FOR THE NE KINGDOM MONDAY
MORNING...OTHERWISE PRECIP-FREE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA. FOR WED INTO FRI...MDLS DO BRING WARM FRNT ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE TOP OF UPPER RIDGE. THIS SETUP WILL FOCUS PRECIP
INTO THE REGION. SOME MDL TIMING/PLACEMENT AND AMT OF QPF POSSIBLE
AS FRNT MEANDERS THRU AREA. DIFFERENCES ARE DUE TO POTENTIAL TRW
ALONG BOUNDARY. WITH 925 TEMPS RANGING FROM +16C TO +22C AND 850
TEMPS +12C TO +17C...AMPLE INSTABILITY APPEARS AVAILABLE TO
TRIGGER CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HRS. BY
FRIDAY...FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES
AS FRNT SHIFTS NORTHWARD. FOR TEMPS IN EXTENDED...STAYING CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GOING FROM THE 60S MONDAY TO THE LOW 80S
THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS AIRMASS SHIFTS FROM CAA ON WNW FLOW MONDAY TO
STRONG WAA MID-TO-END OF WEEK AS STRONG THERMAL RIDGE SETS UP OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...MAINLY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF
SITES DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS WELL AS LIGHT RAIN/FG.
WINDS MAINLY NNE 10-20KTS...W/ 10KTS SEEN BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY AT
TIMES FOR MSS/SLK/RUT.
OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SFC
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE TAF
SITES THRU THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS SFC
LOW PRES TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. A SLOW CLEARING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...W/ VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 407 PM FRIDAY... UPPER/CLOSED LOW TO BRING WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. WHILE STABILITY WILL LIMIT EXCESSIVE HOURLY RAINFALL
RATES...36-48 HOUR TOTALS WILL NONETHELESS RANGE FROM 1.5-3.0
INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT...AND 1-2 INCHES IN THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. LOCALLY RUN SSHP MODEL
HYDROGRAPHS SUGGEST THESE TOTALS WILL LIKELY BRING NUMEROUS SMALL
STREAMS TO BANKFULL...AND SEVERAL MAINSTEM RIVERS INTO FLOOD BY
SATURDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. THUS A FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF OUR REGION THROUGH SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME...THE RIVERS OF MOST CONCERN WOULD BE
THE MISSISQUOI...LAMOILLE AND PASSUMPSIC IN VERMONT...AND THE
AUSABLE RIVER IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS IN
RAINFALL TIMING AND AMOUNTS...MOST RIVER CRESTS ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...LOOKING TO BE A PRETTY MISERABLE START TO
THE PRIME BOATING SEASON ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A STORM MORE TYPICAL
OF WINTER WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
OVER THE LAKE. EXPECT WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE FROM
TONIGHT ALL THE WAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. EXPECT FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO
35 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. FOR THAT REASON, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED
AND WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THE WINDS FALL BELOW 25 KNOTS.
THESE WINDS WILL MAKE FOR VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS, WITH
WAVES ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE ULTIMATELY BUILDING UPWARDS OF 4 TO 6
FEET LATE SATURDAY. A STEADY RAIN AND TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 40S
ON SATURDAY WILL ADD TO THE MISERY.
THE OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE BEST DAY OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR BOATING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILDER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-031-034-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...EVENSON/JN
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...NASH
000
FXUS61 KBTV 241946
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
346 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND. THE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL WATERWAYS...WITH SOME
RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH SOME HIGH ELEVATION ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT FRIDAY...MINOR UPDATES TO T/TD/POPS AS WE HEAD
INTO THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
STEADY FROM HERE ON OUT...GENERALLY HOLDING IN THE 40S. DID OPT TO
RAISE POPS TO NEARLY CATEGORICAL IN ALL AREAS (I.E. > 80%) PER
LATEST RADAR COVERAGE AND HI-RES MODEL 0-12 HR OUTPUT. RAIN WILL
CERTAINLY NOT BE AS EXCESSIVE AS WE SAW YESTERDAY IN
SPOTS...NONETHELESS IT WILL BE A RAW...BREEZY AND WET DAY FOR MOST
LOCALES WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.10 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF POSSIBLE BY
DAY`S END. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
UPDATED FCST TO DROP TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ACRS THE SLV AND 1 TO
3 DEGREES OVER THE CPV. ALSO...MADE SEVERAL TWEAKS TO POPS BASED
ON CRNT RADAR DATA. THE COMBINATION OF LLVL CAA AND UPSLOPE FLW WL
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL RAIN ACRS MOST OF THE FA TODAY. HIGHEST
POPS/QPF WL BE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES AND NORTHERN DACKS.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WL BE BTWN 0.10 AND 0.40". TEMPS
WL REMAIN NEAR STEADY IN THE L/M 40S MTNS TO NEAR 50 SLV/CPV.
ALSO...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH CAN BE
ANTICIPATED...ADDING AN EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR.
A LONG DURATION RAIN WITH SOME ACCUMULATING MTN
SNOW EVENT EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED
BY SUNDAY...WITH SHARP RISES EXPECTED ON AREA WATERWAYS.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COMPLEX DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN
CONUS THIS MORNING...AS BOTH NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ARE
PHASING. NOTICING LARGE PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC/SNE AS TROF BECMS NEGATIVELY TILTED. ALSO...DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LVL DRY SLOT IS ROTATING ACRS THE SE CONUS. THESE FEATURES
COMBINED WITH A DUAL 25H JET STRUCTURE...SIMILAR TO A WINTER-TIME
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WL PRODUCE A COMPLEX WX SCENARIO ACRS OUR FA THIS WKND.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC A SHARP COLD FRNT IS MOVING ACRS OUR
CWA...HELPING TO ENHANCE THE LLVL THERMAL GRADIENT. THIS WL EVENTUALLY
PUSH TWD THE COAST...WITH COASTAL LOW PRES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
RAINFALL...ASSOCIATED WITH TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT AND POST-FRONTAL
MOISTURE. EXPECT OCCASIONAL WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN TODAY...AS FA IS BTWN
SYSTEMS. GFS/NAM SHOW BEST 7H FGEN FORCING AND ASSOCIATED Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING ACRS OUR CWA AFT 18Z. IN ADDITION...WARM MOIST
CONVEYOR BELT SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR CWA...ALONG WITH HEAVIEST QPF. WL
STILL MENTION CAT POPS...BUT QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE BTWN 0.10 AND
0.40" TODAY. TEMPS TODAY WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS WL STRUGGLE IN THE
U30S TO M40S MTNS TO L50S CPV/SLV TO NEAR 60F AT VSF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...POTENT NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY WL ROUND MID/UPPER
LVL TROF BASE AND DEVELOP SFC LOW PRES NEAR CAPE COD BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WL QUICKLY BECM VERTICALLY AND NEGATIVELY
STACKED AS 7H/5H CIRCULATIONS DEEPEN AND BECOME CLOSED. THE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WL ADVECT PLENTY OF DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE
BACK INTO OUR FA BTWN 850 AND 700MB...WHILE A VERY COLD AIR MASS IS
PULLED INTO THE SYSTEM FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS VERY TIGHT
THERMAL GRADIENT...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE RRQ OF 25H JET WL
PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP EVENT ACRS MOST OF
OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY EASTERN DACKS INTO VT. THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE
COASTAL SYSTEM WL HAVE A VERY WINTER-TIME THERMAL/JET STRUCTURE.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION BAND OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH AND ASSOCIATED DEEP
LAYER OMEGA FROM 18Z TODAY THRU 00Z SUNDAY. THIS BAND OF FAVORABLE
LIFT/MOISTURE MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS...WHICH
WL PRODUCE A LONG DURATION PRECIP EVENT. THE FGEN FORCING AND
DEFORMATION ZNS NW OF THE CLOSED SYSTEM IS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT
YOU SEE IN A WINTER TIME COASTAL...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE BACKSIDE
UPSLOPE PARAMETERS.
RAINFALL...EXPECT STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.75"
FOR THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 1.0 TO 2.0" CPV/EASTERN DACKS TO DOWNSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE NEK TO 1.50 TO 2.5"...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MTNS
OF NORTH/CENTRAL VT BY 00Z MONDAY. THESE ANTICIPATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVER A 24 TO 48 PERIOD WL CAUSE ADDITIONAL RISES ON LOCAL
WATERWAYS...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL RIVER AND LOW LYING FLOODING POSSIBLE.
NOTE...THIS WL BE A LONG DURATION EVENT WITH STEADY/MODERATE RAINFALL
RATES...WHICH IS DIFFERENT FROM THURSDAY EVENT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF...THEREFORE NO
FLOOD WATCH WL BE ISSUED ATTM.
SNOWFALL...STILL HAVING A HARD TIME BELIEVING ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS ABOVE 2500 FT ON SAT INTO
SUNDAY. GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND ECMWF PROFILES HAVE INDICATED
THIS POTENTIAL FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AS COLDER AIR IS
WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BLW 0C BY
TONIGHT...WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES BLW 540DAM. THIS
COMBINED WITH SOME COOLING FROM STRONG DYNAMICS WL HELP TO PRODUCE
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACRS THE DACKS AND GREEN MTNS ABOVE
2500FT. WL TRY TO SHOW IN GRIDS...BUT IMPACTS WL BE MINIMAL GIVEN
THE HIGH SNOW LEVELS. THINKING A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
HEAVY WET SNOW WL BE POSSIBLE...WITH 6 INCHES OR SO FOR THE
SUMMITS FROM MT MANSFIELD TO JAY PEAK AND ACRS PARTS OF THE
EASTERN DACKS BY SUNDAY. BEST CHC FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WL BE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPS/WINDS...PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 0C...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS/PRECIP AND A NORTH WIND WL RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY IN THE M/U 30S
MTNS TO M/U 40S SLV/CPV ON SAT/SUNDAY. THE TRENDS HAVE BEEN COOLER AND
COOLER IN THE GUIDANCE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS ON SAT
NIGHT...WITH PRECIP/CLOUDS...THINKING L/M 30S MTNS TO NEAR 40F CPV/SLV.
EXPECT A COLD/BLUSTERY AND WET DAY ON SUNDAY FOR MARATHON
ACTIVITIES IN BURLINGTON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN FAIR
AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THRU
THE FIVE-DAY PERIOD AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS REPLACES THE EXITING LOW FROM
THE WEEKEND. SOME CLDS FOR THE NE KINGDOM MONDAY
MORNING...OTHERWISE PRECIP-FREE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA. FOR WED INTO FRI...MDLS DO BRING WARM FRNT ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE TOP OF UPPER RIDGE. THIS SETUP WILL FOCUS PRECIP
INTO THE REGION. SOME MDL TIMING/PLACEMENT AND AMT OF QPF POSSIBLE
AS FRNT MEANDERS THRU AREA. DIFFERENCES ARE DUE TO POTENTIAL TRW
ALONG BOUNDARY. WITH 925 TEMPS RANGING FROM +16C TO +22C AND 850
TEMPS +12C TO +17C...AMPLE INSTABILITY APPEARS AVAILABLE TO
TRIGGER CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HRS. BY
FRIDAY...FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES
AS FRNT SHIFTS NORTHWARD. FOR TEMPS IN EXTENDED...STAYING CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GOING FROM THE 60S MONDAY TO THE LOW 80S
THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS AIRMASS SHIFTS FROM CAA ON WNW FLOW MONDAY TO
STRONG WAA MID-TO-END OF WEEK AS STRONG THERMAL RIDGE SETS UP OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...MAINLY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF
SITES DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS WELL AS LIGHT RAIN/FG.
WINDS MAINLY NNE 10-20KTS...W/ 10KTS SEEN BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY AT
TIMES FOR MSS/SLK/RUT.
OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SFC
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE TAF
SITES THRU THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS SFC
LOW PRES TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. A SLOW CLEARING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...W/ VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...A LONG DURATION MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
IS ANTICIPATED FROM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT RISES
ON LARGE STEM RIVERS. EXPECT STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM
0.25 TO 0.75" FOR THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 1.0 TO 2.0" CPV/EASTERN
DACKS TO DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE NEK TO 1.50 TO 2.5"...WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MTNS OF NORTH/CENTRAL VT BY 00Z MONDAY.
THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RECENT RAIN FROM CONVECTION WL PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL MINOR LOW LYING FLOODING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL RIVERS TO APPROACH FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY. NO FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT IF CRNT TRENDS CONTINUE
ANOTHER FLOOD WATCH MAYBE NEEDED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...LOOKING TO BE A PRETTY MISERABLE START TO
THE PRIME BOATING SEASON ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A STORM MORE TYPICAL
OF WINTER WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
OVER THE LAKE. EXPECT WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE FROM
TONIGHT ALL THE WAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. EXPECT FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO
35 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. FOR THAT REASON, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED
AND WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THE WINDS FALL BELOW 25 KNOTS.
THESE WINDS WILL MAKE FOR VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS, WITH
WAVES ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE ULTIMATELY BUILDING UPWARDS OF 4 TO 6
FEET LATE SATURDAY. A STEADY RAIN AND TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 40S
ON SATURDAY WILL ADD TO THE MISERY.
THE OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE BEST DAY OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR BOATING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILDER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-031-034-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...EVENSON/JN
HYDROLOGY...BTV
MARINE...NASH
000
FXUS61 KBTV 241930
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND. THE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL WATERWAYS...WITH SOME
RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH SOME HIGH ELEVATION ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT FRIDAY...MINOR UPDATES TO T/TD/POPS AS WE HEAD
INTO THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
STEADY FROM HERE ON OUT...GENERALLY HOLDING IN THE 40S. DID OPT TO
RAISE POPS TO NEARLY CATEGORICAL IN ALL AREAS (I.E. > 80%) PER
LATEST RADAR COVERAGE AND HI-RES MODEL 0-12 HR OUTPUT. RAIN WILL
CERTAINLY NOT BE AS EXCESSIVE AS WE SAW YESTERDAY IN
SPOTS...NONETHELESS IT WILL BE A RAW...BREEZY AND WET DAY FOR MOST
LOCALES WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.10 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF POSSIBLE BY
DAY`S END. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
UPDATED FCST TO DROP TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ACRS THE SLV AND 1 TO
3 DEGREES OVER THE CPV. ALSO...MADE SEVERAL TWEAKS TO POPS BASED
ON CRNT RADAR DATA. THE COMBINATION OF LLVL CAA AND UPSLOPE FLW WL
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL RAIN ACRS MOST OF THE FA TODAY. HIGHEST
POPS/QPF WL BE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES AND NORTHERN DACKS.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WL BE BTWN 0.10 AND 0.40". TEMPS
WL REMAIN NEAR STEADY IN THE L/M 40S MTNS TO NEAR 50 SLV/CPV.
ALSO...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH CAN BE
ANTICIPATED...ADDING AN EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR.
A LONG DURATION RAIN WITH SOME ACCUMULATING MTN
SNOW EVENT EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED
BY SUNDAY...WITH SHARP RISES EXPECTED ON AREA WATERWAYS.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COMPLEX DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN
CONUS THIS MORNING...AS BOTH NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ARE
PHASING. NOTICING LARGE PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC/SNE AS TROF BECMS NEGATIVELY TILTED. ALSO...DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LVL DRY SLOT IS ROTATING ACRS THE SE CONUS. THESE FEATURES
COMBINED WITH A DUAL 25H JET STRUCTURE...SIMILAR TO A WINTER-TIME
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WL PRODUCE A COMPLEX WX SCENARIO ACRS OUR FA THIS WKND.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC A SHARP COLD FRNT IS MOVING ACRS OUR
CWA...HELPING TO ENHANCE THE LLVL THERMAL GRADIENT. THIS WL EVENTUALLY
PUSH TWD THE COAST...WITH COASTAL LOW PRES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
RAINFALL...ASSOCIATED WITH TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT AND POST-FRONTAL
MOISTURE. EXPECT OCCASIONAL WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN TODAY...AS FA IS BTWN
SYSTEMS. GFS/NAM SHOW BEST 7H FGEN FORCING AND ASSOCIATED Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING ACRS OUR CWA AFT 18Z. IN ADDITION...WARM MOIST
CONVEYOR BELT SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR CWA...ALONG WITH HEAVIEST QPF. WL
STILL MENTION CAT POPS...BUT QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE BTWN 0.10 AND
0.40" TODAY. TEMPS TODAY WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS WL STRUGGLE IN THE
U30S TO M40S MTNS TO L50S CPV/SLV TO NEAR 60F AT VSF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...POTENT NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY WL ROUND MID/UPPER
LVL TROF BASE AND DEVELOP SFC LOW PRES NEAR CAPE COD BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WL QUICKLY BECM VERTICALLY AND NEGATIVELY
STACKED AS 7H/5H CIRCULATIONS DEEPEN AND BECOME CLOSED. THE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WL ADVECT PLENTY OF DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE
BACK INTO OUR FA BTWN 850 AND 700MB...WHILE A VERY COLD AIR MASS IS
PULLED INTO THE SYSTEM FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS VERY TIGHT
THERMAL GRADIENT...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE RRQ OF 25H JET WL
PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP EVENT ACRS MOST OF
OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY EASTERN DACKS INTO VT. THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE
COASTAL SYSTEM WL HAVE A VERY WINTER-TIME THERMAL/JET STRUCTURE.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION BAND OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH AND ASSOCIATED DEEP
LAYER OMEGA FROM 18Z TODAY THRU 00Z SUNDAY. THIS BAND OF FAVORABLE
LIFT/MOISTURE MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS...WHICH
WL PRODUCE A LONG DURATION PRECIP EVENT. THE FGEN FORCING AND
DEFORMATION ZNS NW OF THE CLOSED SYSTEM IS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT
YOU SEE IN A WINTER TIME COASTAL...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE BACKSIDE
UPSLOPE PARAMETERS.
RAINFALL...EXPECT STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.75"
FOR THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 1.0 TO 2.0" CPV/EASTERN DACKS TO DOWNSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE NEK TO 1.50 TO 2.5"...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MTNS
OF NORTH/CENTRAL VT BY 00Z MONDAY. THESE ANTICIPATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVER A 24 TO 48 PERIOD WL CAUSE ADDITIONAL RISES ON LOCAL
WATERWAYS...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL RIVER AND LOW LYING FLOODING POSSIBLE.
NOTE...THIS WL BE A LONG DURATION EVENT WITH STEADY/MODERATE RAINFALL
RATES...WHICH IS DIFFERENT FROM THURSDAY EVENT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF...THEREFORE NO
FLOOD WATCH WL BE ISSUED ATTM.
SNOWFALL...STILL HAVING A HARD TIME BELIEVING ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS ABOVE 2500 FT ON SAT INTO
SUNDAY. GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND ECMWF PROFILES HAVE INDICATED
THIS POTENTIAL FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AS COLDER AIR IS
WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BLW 0C BY
TONIGHT...WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES BLW 540DAM. THIS
COMBINED WITH SOME COOLING FROM STRONG DYNAMICS WL HELP TO PRODUCE
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACRS THE DACKS AND GREEN MTNS ABOVE
2500FT. WL TRY TO SHOW IN GRIDS...BUT IMPACTS WL BE MINIMAL GIVEN
THE HIGH SNOW LEVELS. THINKING A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
HEAVY WET SNOW WL BE POSSIBLE...WITH 6 INCHES OR SO FOR THE
SUMMITS FROM MT MANSFIELD TO JAY PEAK AND ACRS PARTS OF THE
EASTERN DACKS BY SUNDAY. BEST CHC FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WL BE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPS/WINDS...PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 0C...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS/PRECIP AND A NORTH WIND WL RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY IN THE M/U 30S
MTNS TO M/U 40S SLV/CPV ON SAT/SUNDAY. THE TRENDS HAVE BEEN COOLER AND
COOLER IN THE GUIDANCE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS ON SAT
NIGHT...WITH PRECIP/CLOUDS...THINKING L/M 30S MTNS TO NEAR 40F CPV/SLV.
EXPECT A COLD/BLUSTERY AND WET DAY ON SUNDAY FOR MARATHON
ACTIVITIES IN BURLINGTON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN FAIR
AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THRU
THE FIVE-DAY PERIOD AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS REPLACES THE EXITING LOW FROM
THE WEEKEND. SOME CLDS FOR THE NE KINGDOM MONDAY
MORNING...OTHERWISE PRECIP-FREE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA. FOR WED INTO FRI...MDLS DO BRING WARM FRNT ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE TOP OF UPPER RIDGE. THIS SETUP WILL FOCUS PRECIP
INTO THE REGION. SOME MDL TIMING/PLACEMENT AND AMT OF QPF POSSIBLE
AS FRNT MEANDERS THRU AREA. DIFFERENCES ARE DUE TO POTENTIAL TRW
ALONG BOUNDARY. WITH 925 TEMPS RANGING FROM +16C TO +22C AND 850
TEMPS +12C TO +17C...AMPLE INSTABILITY APPEARS AVAILABLE TO
TRIGGER CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HRS. BY
FRIDAY...FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES
AS FRNT SHIFTS NORTHWARD. FOR TEMPS IN EXTENDED...STAYING CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GOING FROM THE 60S MONDAY TO THE LOW 80S
THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS AIRMASS SHIFTS FROM CAA ON WNW FLOW MONDAY TO
STRONG WAA MID-TO-END OF WEEK AS STRONG THERMAL RIDGE SETS UP OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...MAINLY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF
SITES DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS WELL AS LIGHT RAIN/FG.
WINDS MAINLY NNE 10-20KTS...W/ 10KTS SEEN BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY AT
TIMES FOR MSS/SLK/RUT.
OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SFC
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE TAF
SITES THRU THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS SFC
LOW PRES TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. A SLOW CLEARING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...W/ VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...A LONG DURATION MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
IS ANTICIPATED FROM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT RISES
ON LARGE STEM RIVERS. EXPECT STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM
0.25 TO 0.75" FOR THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 1.0 TO 2.0" CPV/EASTERN
DACKS TO DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE NEK TO 1.50 TO 2.5"...WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MTNS OF NORTH/CENTRAL VT BY 00Z MONDAY.
THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RECENT RAIN FROM CONVECTION WL PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL MINOR LOW LYING FLOODING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL RIVERS TO APPROACH FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY. NO FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT IF CRNT TRENDS CONTINUE
ANOTHER FLOOD WATCH MAYBE NEEDED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-031-034-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...EVENSON/JN
HYDROLOGY...JMG
000
FXUS61 KALY 241731
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
131 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY. A STORM
WILL DEVELOP...INTENSIFY...AND LINGER ON THIS FRONT NEAR THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE STORM WILL DRAW MUCH
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION AND BRING DAMP WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
MEMORIAL DAY AND DRIFT OVER OUR REGION INTO MIDWEEK...WITH FAIR DRY
AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT...SHOWER COVERAGE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AS CVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES
OVER A REGION OF LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OF A PERSISTENT STRATIFORM
NATURE...UNLIKE THE HEAVY CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS EXPERIENCED OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. GENERALLY EXPECT ANYWHERE FROM A TENTH TO
A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
RAINFALL RATES UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR.
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS ONCE AGAIN TO ACCOUNT FOR CAA NOW TAKING HOLD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA COUPLED WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD AND
SHOWER COVERAGE WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT DAYTIME HEATING.
HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE MID 40S IN PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS...UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
TONIGHT...FAVORABLE QG DYNAMICS OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS THE
UPPER LOW OBTAINS A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT WITH HEIGHT. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD HELPING TO THROW ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA VIA A COLD CONVEYER BELT. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH...WITH RAINFALL RATES
AGAIN AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLIGHTLY INITIALLY DUE TO CAA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND THEN HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT AND IN LINE WITH PAST
FEW RUNS OF THE MODEL SUITE. ONLY DIFFERENCE IN 00UTC RUNS IS NAM
IS A BIT FASTER WITH PROGRESSION OF WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEM...BUT
ITS BEEN THE FAST MODEL FOR SVRL RUNS...AND AT THIS TIME ITS
PROBABLY THE OUTLIER.
BY SAT MORNING THE 500HPA CUT OFF WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK...AND COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE LOW WILL
BE CENTERED JUST OFF BOSTON. 500HPA CUT OFF WILL TAKE ON A NEG
TILT SAT...AND ENHANCE COOL CONVEYOR BELT PCPN FM COASTAL
LOW...BACK INTO MOST OF THE FCA. WITH COASTAL LOW ALMOST
VERTICAL...12MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NYS...IT SHOULD BE A RAW
NOVEMBER-ESQ DAY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND A BRISK CHILLY
NORTH WIND. H850 TEMPS FALL TO -2 TO -4C OVER FCA...COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SNOW OVER HIGHEST TRRN. (YES ITS MAY 25TH IN NEW YORK WERE
TALKING ABOUT HERE). AT SFC HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE IN MID 40S TO
MID 50S...15-20 DEG BLO NRML. LOWS SAT NT WILL FALL TO MID 30S TO
LOW 40S. PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST ON EAST SIDE OF FCA AND
OVER HIR TRRN...DIMINISHING TWRD THE WEST. DURING SAT AND SAT NT
ANOTHER 0.30 TO 1.0 INCHES OF QPF IS FCST BY GFS...0.10 TO 0.5 BY
GEM...AND A TENTH TO AN INCH BY THE "FAST" NAM WHICH IS ALL EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER
THE GEM/ECMWF/GFS TAKE THE VERTICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY AND ONWARD INTO THE MARITIMES...IN LINE WITH
CURRENT FCST. PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH TO SCT -SHRA EAST...ISOLD -SHRA
WEST...TIED MAINLY TO LAST OF SHORT WVS SPIRALING AROUND 500HPA
CUT OFF...DIURNAL HEATING AND TRRN. CLOUDS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH BREAKS OF SUN WILL INCR ALONG W PERIPHERY OF
FCA...AND IN THE SOUTHEAST. MOST OF AREA HAS A CHANCE TO SEE
SUNSET SUN EVENING. WITH LESS PCPN...SOME SUN MAX TEMPS WILL
RECOVER TO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WITH SOME MID 60S SE ON SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE CUT OFF EXITS INTO LABRADOR...AND THE BEGINNINGS
OF THE NEXT MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE TAKE SHAPE AS A 500HPA RIDGE
BUILDS FM MISS VLY TO HUDSON BAY CANADA AND THEN STARTS BUILDING
EAST.
AT THE SFC LARGE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GRTLKS MONDAY...AND
ACROSS FCA MON NT. UNDER STRONG SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPS
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S WITH LOW 70S IN VLYS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALB.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS UNDER
THE SFC HIGH...AND LOWS IN 30S AND LOW 40S. THERE MAY BE FROST AND
FREEZE ISSUES PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIR TRRN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PATTERN CHANGE THAT SET UP MONDAY...BECOMES THE DOMINATE
REGIME DURING THE EFP. 500HPA RIDGE BUILDS FM GULF COAST TO JAMES
BAY...THEN SHIFTS TO EASTERN SEABOARD. 590DM CLOSED HIGH OVER MUCH
OF EAST FROM LATE WED INTO WEEKEND. THIS SIGNAL HAS BEEN THERE FOR
DAYS IN GFS...AND THERE`S MORE AGREEMENT BTWN GFS/GEM/12UTC ECMWF
AND ENSEMBLES IN DAYS 5-7 THAN IN THE SHORT TERM.
AT SFC COOLER BUT MODERATED CANADIAN HIGH HOLDS OVER RGN TUES
BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE. WAA BEGINS POURING OVER TOP OF 500HPA
RIDGE AS SFC WMFNT SURGES THROUGH FCA TUES NT AND WED WITH
-SHRA/TSTMS. THIS HAS ALL THE HALLMARKS OF MCS RIDGE ROLLERS.
BY WED EVENING FCA AND MUCH OF USA FROM ROCKIES TO THE SEABOARD IS
UNDER THE EASTERN RIDGE...AND BERMUDA HIGH. TEMPERATURES WHICH
STARTED THE WEEK WELL BLO NORMAL WILL SURGE TO 70S TUES...MID 70S
TO LOW 80S WED...THE 80S THURS AND TWRD 90 FRI.
WILL POPULATE WITH OVERNIGHT WPC GRIDS. ECMWF CLOSE ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME TO GFS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STEADIER RAIN HAS MOVED ACROSS THE TAF SITES EXCEPT AT KPSF AS AS
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN.
EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE TAFS FOR
SATURDAY SO HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH VFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS FM
12Z TO 18Z SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT AROUND 10 KT WITH
GUSTS 15 KT TO 20 KT...THEN JUST BECOME STEADY AT AROUND 10 KT
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY OUT OF THE NORTH
AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR/IFR. -SHRA LIKELY. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SAT NGT-SUN...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SUN NGT-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
WED...VFR. MVFR PSBL WITH CHC -SHRA/-TSRA DURING THE AFT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO SUNDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE AND LINGER ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
INTO LATE SATURDAY BEFORE DRIFTING INTO THE MARITIMES. IT WILL
BRING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THE THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE EAST...AND LEAST
ACROSS THE WEST.
THIS RAINFALL WILL COME ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE PERIODS OF HEAVY/TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
THAT HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST TWO DAYS.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IRL/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
000
FXUS61 KBTV 241725
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
125 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND. THE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL WATERWAYS...WITH SOME
RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH SOME HIGH ELEVATION ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT FRIDAY...MINOR UPDATES TO T/TD/POPS AS WE HEAD
INTO THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
STEADY FROM HERE ON OUT...GENERALLY HOLDING IN THE 40S. DID OPT TO
RAISE POPS TO NEARLY CATEGORICAL IN ALL AREAS (I.E. > 80%) PER
LATEST RADAR COVERAGE AND HI-RES MODEL 0-12 HR OUTPUT. RAIN WILL
CERTAINLY NOT BE AS EXCESSIVE AS WE SAW YESTERDAY IN
SPOTS...NONETHELESS IT WILL BE A RAW...BREEZY AND WET DAY FOR MOST
LOCALES WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.10 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF POSSIBLE BY
DAY`S END. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
UPDATED FCST TO DROP TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ACRS THE SLV AND 1 TO
3 DEGREES OVER THE CPV. ALSO...MADE SEVERAL TWEAKS TO POPS BASED
ON CRNT RADAR DATA. THE COMBINATION OF LLVL CAA AND UPSLOPE FLW WL
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL RAIN ACRS MOST OF THE FA TODAY. HIGHEST
POPS/QPF WL BE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES AND NORTHERN DACKS.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WL BE BTWN 0.10 AND 0.40". TEMPS
WL REMAIN NEAR STEADY IN THE L/M 40S MTNS TO NEAR 50 SLV/CPV.
ALSO...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH CAN BE
ANTICIPATED...ADDING AN EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR.
A LONG DURATION RAIN WITH SOME ACCUMULATING MTN
SNOW EVENT EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED
BY SUNDAY...WITH SHARP RISES EXPECTED ON AREA WATERWAYS.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COMPLEX DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN
CONUS THIS MORNING...AS BOTH NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ARE
PHASING. NOTICING LARGE PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC/SNE AS TROF BECMS NEGATIVELY TILTED. ALSO...DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LVL DRY SLOT IS ROTATING ACRS THE SE CONUS. THESE FEATURES
COMBINED WITH A DUAL 25H JET STRUCTURE...SIMILAR TO A WINTER-TIME
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WL PRODUCE A COMPLEX WX SCENARIO ACRS OUR FA THIS WKND.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC A SHARP COLD FRNT IS MOVING ACRS OUR
CWA...HELPING TO ENHANCE THE LLVL THERMAL GRADIENT. THIS WL EVENTUALLY
PUSH TWD THE COAST...WITH COASTAL LOW PRES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
RAINFALL...ASSOCIATED WITH TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT AND POST-FRONTAL
MOISTURE. EXPECT OCCASIONAL WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN TODAY...AS FA IS BTWN
SYSTEMS. GFS/NAM SHOW BEST 7H FGEN FORCING AND ASSOCIATED Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING ACRS OUR CWA AFT 18Z. IN ADDITION...WARM MOIST
CONVEYOR BELT SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR CWA...ALONG WITH HEAVIEST QPF. WL
STILL MENTION CAT POPS...BUT QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE BTWN 0.10 AND
0.40" TODAY. TEMPS TODAY WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS WL STRUGGLE IN THE
U30S TO M40S MTNS TO L50S CPV/SLV TO NEAR 60F AT VSF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...POTENT NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY WL ROUND MID/UPPER
LVL TROF BASE AND DEVELOP SFC LOW PRES NEAR CAPE COD BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WL QUICKLY BECM VERTICALLY AND NEGATIVELY
STACKED AS 7H/5H CIRCULATIONS DEEPEN AND BECOME CLOSED. THE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WL ADVECT PLENTY OF DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE
BACK INTO OUR FA BTWN 850 AND 700MB...WHILE A VERY COLD AIR MASS IS
PULLED INTO THE SYSTEM FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS VERY TIGHT
THERMAL GRADIENT...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE RRQ OF 25H JET WL
PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP EVENT ACRS MOST OF
OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY EASTERN DACKS INTO VT. THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE
COASTAL SYSTEM WL HAVE A VERY WINTER-TIME THERMAL/JET STRUCTURE.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION BAND OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH AND ASSOCIATED DEEP
LAYER OMEGA FROM 18Z TODAY THRU 00Z SUNDAY. THIS BAND OF FAVORABLE
LIFT/MOISTURE MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS...WHICH
WL PRODUCE A LONG DURATION PRECIP EVENT. THE FGEN FORCING AND
DEFORMATION ZNS NW OF THE CLOSED SYSTEM IS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT
YOU SEE IN A WINTER TIME COASTAL...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE BACKSIDE
UPSLOPE PARAMETERS.
RAINFALL...EXPECT STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.75"
FOR THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 1.0 TO 2.0" CPV/EASTERN DACKS TO DOWNSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE NEK TO 1.50 TO 2.5"...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MTNS
OF NORTH/CENTRAL VT BY 00Z MONDAY. THESE ANTICIPATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVER A 24 TO 48 PERIOD WL CAUSE ADDITIONAL RISES ON LOCAL
WATERWAYS...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL RIVER AND LOW LYING FLOODING POSSIBLE.
NOTE...THIS WL BE A LONG DURATION EVENT WITH STEADY/MODERATE RAINFALL
RATES...WHICH IS DIFFERENT FROM THURSDAY EVENT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF...THEREFORE NO
FLOOD WATCH WL BE ISSUED ATTM.
SNOWFALL...STILL HAVING A HARD TIME BELIEVING ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS ABOVE 2500 FT ON SAT INTO
SUNDAY. GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND ECMWF PROFILES HAVE INDICATED
THIS POTENTIAL FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AS COLDER AIR IS
WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BLW 0C BY
TONIGHT...WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES BLW 540DAM. THIS
COMBINED WITH SOME COOLING FROM STRONG DYNAMICS WL HELP TO PRODUCE
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACRS THE DACKS AND GREEN MTNS ABOVE
2500FT. WL TRY TO SHOW IN GRIDS...BUT IMPACTS WL BE MINIMAL GIVEN
THE HIGH SNOW LEVELS. THINKING A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
HEAVY WET SNOW WL BE POSSIBLE...WITH 6 INCHES OR SO FOR THE
SUMMITS FROM MT MANSFIELD TO JAY PEAK AND ACRS PARTS OF THE
EASTERN DACKS BY SUNDAY. BEST CHC FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WL BE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPS/WINDS...PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 0C...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS/PRECIP AND A NORTH WIND WL RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY IN THE M/U 30S
MTNS TO M/U 40S SLV/CPV ON SAT/SUNDAY. THE TRENDS HAVE BEEN COOLER AND
COOLER IN THE GUIDANCE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS ON SAT
NIGHT...WITH PRECIP/CLOUDS...THINKING L/M 30S MTNS TO NEAR 40F CPV/SLV.
EXPECT A COLD/BLUSTERY AND WET DAY ON SUNDAY FOR MARATHON
ACTIVITIES IN BURLINGTON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER LOW FINALLY STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THUS BRINGING ANY
PRECIPITATION QUICKLY TO AN END. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST EARLY
NEXT WEEK FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...BUT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN BY MIDWEEK AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE NOTICEABLE WARMING
TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK AND COMBINED WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY FROM THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR
MASS...POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...MAINLY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF
SITES DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS WELL AS LIGHT RAIN/FG.
WINDS MAINLY NNE 10-20KTS...W/ 10KTS SEEN BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY AT
TIMES FOR MSS/SLK/RUT.
OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SFC
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE TAF
SITES THRU THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS SFC
LOW PRES TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. A SLOW CLEARING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...W/ VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...A LONG DURATION MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
IS ANTICIPATED FROM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT RISES
ON LARGE STEM RIVERS. EXPECT STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM
0.25 TO 0.75" FOR THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 1.0 TO 2.0" CPV/EASTERN
DACKS TO DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE NEK TO 1.50 TO 2.5"...WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MTNS OF NORTH/CENTRAL VT BY 00Z MONDAY.
THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RECENT RAIN FROM CONVECTION WL PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL MINOR LOW LYING FLOODING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL RIVERS TO APPROACH FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY. NO FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT IF CRNT TRENDS CONTINUE
ANOTHER FLOOD WATCH MAYBE NEEDED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/JN
HYDROLOGY...JMG
000
FXUS61 KBTV 241442
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1042 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND. THE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL WATERWAYS...WITH SOME
RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH SOME HIGH ELEVATION ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1042 AM EDT FRIDAY...MINOR UPDATES TO T/TD/POPS AS WE HEAD
INTO THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
STEADY FROM HERE ON OUT...GENERALLY HOLDING IN THE 40S. DID OPT TO
RAISE POPS TO NEARLY CATEGORICAL IN ALL AREAS (I.E. > 80%) PER
LATEST RADAR COVERAGE AND HI-RES MODEL 0-12 HR OUTPUT. RAIN WILL
CERTAINLY NOT BE AS EXCESSIVE AS WE SAW YESTERDAY IN
SPOTS...NONETHELESS IT WILL BE A RAW...BREEZY AND WET DAY FOR MOST
LOCALES WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.10 TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF POSSIBLE BY
DAY`S END. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
UPDATED FCST TO DROP TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ACRS THE SLV AND 1 TO
3 DEGREES OVER THE CPV. ALSO...MADE SEVERAL TWEAKS TO POPS BASED
ON CRNT RADAR DATA. THE COMBINATION OF LLVL CAA AND UPSLOPE FLW WL
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL RAIN ACRS MOST OF THE FA TODAY. HIGHEST
POPS/QPF WL BE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES AND NORTHERN DACKS.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WL BE BTWN 0.10 AND 0.40". TEMPS
WL REMAIN NEAR STEADY IN THE L/M 40S MTNS TO NEAR 50 SLV/CPV.
ALSO...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH CAN BE
ANTICIPATED...ADDING AN EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR.
A LONG DURATION RAIN WITH SOME ACCUMULATING MTN
SNOW EVENT EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED
BY SUNDAY...WITH SHARP RISES EXPECTED ON AREA WATERWAYS.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COMPLEX DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN
CONUS THIS MORNING...AS BOTH NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ARE
PHASING. NOTICING LARGE PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC/SNE AS TROF BECMS NEGATIVELY TILTED. ALSO...DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LVL DRY SLOT IS ROTATING ACRS THE SE CONUS. THESE FEATURES
COMBINED WITH A DUAL 25H JET STRUCTURE...SIMILAR TO A WINTER-TIME
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WL PRODUCE A COMPLEX WX SCENARIO ACRS OUR FA THIS WKND.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC A SHARP COLD FRNT IS MOVING ACRS OUR
CWA...HELPING TO ENHANCE THE LLVL THERMAL GRADIENT. THIS WL EVENTUALLY
PUSH TWD THE COAST...WITH COASTAL LOW PRES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
RAINFALL...ASSOCIATED WITH TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT AND POST-FRONTAL
MOISTURE. EXPECT OCCASIONAL WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN TODAY...AS FA IS BTWN
SYSTEMS. GFS/NAM SHOW BEST 7H FGEN FORCING AND ASSOCIATED Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING ACRS OUR CWA AFT 18Z. IN ADDITION...WARM MOIST
CONVEYOR BELT SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR CWA...ALONG WITH HEAVIEST QPF. WL
STILL MENTION CAT POPS...BUT QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE BTWN 0.10 AND
0.40" TODAY. TEMPS TODAY WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS WL STRUGGLE IN THE
U30S TO M40S MTNS TO L50S CPV/SLV TO NEAR 60F AT VSF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...POTENT NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY WL ROUND MID/UPPER
LVL TROF BASE AND DEVELOP SFC LOW PRES NEAR CAPE COD BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WL QUICKLY BECM VERTICALLY AND NEGATIVELY
STACKED AS 7H/5H CIRCULATIONS DEEPEN AND BECOME CLOSED. THE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WL ADVECT PLENTY OF DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE
BACK INTO OUR FA BTWN 850 AND 700MB...WHILE A VERY COLD AIR MASS IS
PULLED INTO THE SYSTEM FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS VERY TIGHT
THERMAL GRADIENT...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE RRQ OF 25H JET WL
PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP EVENT ACRS MOST OF
OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY EASTERN DACKS INTO VT. THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE
COASTAL SYSTEM WL HAVE A VERY WINTER-TIME THERMAL/JET STRUCTURE.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION BAND OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH AND ASSOCIATED DEEP
LAYER OMEGA FROM 18Z TODAY THRU 00Z SUNDAY. THIS BAND OF FAVORABLE
LIFT/MOISTURE MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS...WHICH
WL PRODUCE A LONG DURATION PRECIP EVENT. THE FGEN FORCING AND
DEFORMATION ZNS NW OF THE CLOSED SYSTEM IS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT
YOU SEE IN A WINTER TIME COASTAL...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE BACKSIDE
UPSLOPE PARAMETERS.
RAINFALL...EXPECT STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.75"
FOR THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 1.0 TO 2.0" CPV/EASTERN DACKS TO DOWNSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE NEK TO 1.50 TO 2.5"...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MTNS
OF NORTH/CENTRAL VT BY 00Z MONDAY. THESE ANTICIPATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVER A 24 TO 48 PERIOD WL CAUSE ADDITIONAL RISES ON LOCAL
WATERWAYS...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL RIVER AND LOW LYING FLOODING POSSIBLE.
NOTE...THIS WL BE A LONG DURATION EVENT WITH STEADY/MODERATE RAINFALL
RATES...WHICH IS DIFFERENT FROM THURSDAY EVENT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF...THEREFORE NO
FLOOD WATCH WL BE ISSUED ATTM.
SNOWFALL...STILL HAVING A HARD TIME BELIEVING ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS ABOVE 2500 FT ON SAT INTO
SUNDAY. GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND ECMWF PROFILES HAVE INDICATED
THIS POTENTIAL FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AS COLDER AIR IS
WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BLW 0C BY
TONIGHT...WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES BLW 540DAM. THIS
COMBINED WITH SOME COOLING FROM STRONG DYNAMICS WL HELP TO PRODUCE
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACRS THE DACKS AND GREEN MTNS ABOVE
2500FT. WL TRY TO SHOW IN GRIDS...BUT IMPACTS WL BE MINIMAL GIVEN
THE HIGH SNOW LEVELS. THINKING A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
HEAVY WET SNOW WL BE POSSIBLE...WITH 6 INCHES OR SO FOR THE
SUMMITS FROM MT MANSFIELD TO JAY PEAK AND ACRS PARTS OF THE
EASTERN DACKS BY SUNDAY. BEST CHC FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WL BE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPS/WINDS...PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 0C...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS/PRECIP AND A NORTH WIND WL RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY IN THE M/U 30S
MTNS TO M/U 40S SLV/CPV ON SAT/SUNDAY. THE TRENDS HAVE BEEN COOLER AND
COOLER IN THE GUIDANCE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS ON SAT
NIGHT...WITH PRECIP/CLOUDS...THINKING L/M 30S MTNS TO NEAR 40F CPV/SLV.
EXPECT A COLD/BLUSTERY AND WET DAY ON SUNDAY FOR MARATHON
ACTIVITIES IN BURLINGTON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER LOW FINALLY STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THUS BRINGING ANY
PRECIPITATION QUICKLY TO AN END. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST EARLY
NEXT WEEK FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...BUT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN BY MIDWEEK AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE NOTICEABLE WARMING
TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK AND COMBINED WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY FROM THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR
MASS...POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...EXPECT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS WELL AS LIGHT RAIN. THERE WILL ALSO
BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIFR CEILINGS AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA. THE WIND WILL BECOME NORTHWEST ALL AREAS
AT SPEEDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SFC
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE TAF
SITES THRU THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS SFC
LOW PRES TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. A SLOW CLEARING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...W/ VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...A LONG DURATION MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
IS ANTICIPATED FROM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT RISES
ON LARGE STEM RIVERS. EXPECT STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM
0.25 TO 0.75" FOR THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 1.0 TO 2.0" CPV/EASTERN
DACKS TO DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE NEK TO 1.50 TO 2.5"...WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MTNS OF NORTH/CENTRAL VT BY 00Z MONDAY.
THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RECENT RAIN FROM CONVECTION WL PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL MINOR LOW LYING FLOODING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL RIVERS TO APPROACH FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY. NO FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT IF CRNT TRENDS CONTINUE
ANOTHER FLOOD WATCH MAYBE NEEDED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS
HYDROLOGY...BTV
000
FXUS61 KALY 241436
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1036 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY. A STORM
WILL DEVELOP...INTENSIFY...AND LINGER ON THIS FRONT NEAR THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE STORM WILL DRAW MUCH
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION AND BRING DAMP WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
MEMORIAL DAY AND DRIFT OVER OUR REGION INTO MIDWEEK...WITH FAIR DRY
AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT...HAVE LOWERED TEMPS YET AGAIN AS IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT READINGS HAVE CONTINUED TO FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S
IN MOST AREAS WITH LOWER 60S ONLY REMAINING ACRS FAR SE ZONES.
EXPECT TEMPS TO ONLY RECOVER A FEW DEGREES THROUGH EARLY TO MID
AFT AND THEN SLOWLY FALL AS STRONG CAA TAKES HOLD.
RAIN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER DYNAMICS AND
BOUNDARY LAYER FRONTOGENESIS SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN.
TONIGHT...RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE...WITH MORE RAIN DEVELOPING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW...INCLUDING WESTERN
AREAS...WHERE RAIN ASSOCIATED MORE DIRECTLY WITH THE UPPER LOW
SHOULD TRACK INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FALL...INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...AND UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT AND IN LINE WITH PAST
FEW RUNS OF THE MODEL SUITE. ONLY DIFFERENCE IN 00UTC RUNS IS NAM
IS A BIT FASTER WITH PROGRESSION OF WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEM...BUT
ITS BEEN THE FAST MODEL FOR SVRL RUNS...AND AT THIS TIME ITS
PROBABLY THE OUTLIER.
BY SAT MORNING THE 500HPA CUT OFF WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK...AND COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE LOW WILL
BE CENTERED JUST OFF BOSTON. 500HPA CUT OFF WILL TAKE ON A NEG
TILT SAT...AND ENHANCE COOL CONVEYOR BELT PCPN FM COASTAL
LOW...BACK INTO MOST OF THE FCA. WITH COASTAL LOW ALMOST
VERTICAL...12MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NYS...IT SHOULD BE A RAW
NOVEMBER-ESQ DAY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND A BRISK CHILLY
NORTH WIND. H850 TEMPS FALL TO -2 TO -4C OVER FCA...COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SNOW OVER HIGHEST TRRN. (YES ITS MAY 25TH IN NEW YORK WERE
TALKING ABOUT HERE). AT SFC HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE IN MID 40S TO
MID 50S...15-20 DEG BLO NRML. LOWS SAT NT WILL FALL TO MID 30S TO
LOW 40S. PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST ON EAST SIDE OF FCA AND
OVER HIR TRRN...DIMINISHING TWRD THE WEST. DURING SAT AND SAT NT
ANOTHER 0.30 TO 1.0 INCHES OF QPF IS FCST BY GFS...0.10 TO 0.5 BY
GEM...AND A TENTH TO AN INCH BY THE "FAST" NAM WHICH IS ALL EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER
THE GEM/ECMWF/GFS TAKE THE VERTICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY AND ONWARD INTO THE MARITIMES...IN LINE WITH
CURRENT FCST. PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH TO SCT -SHRA EAST...ISOLD -SHRA
WEST...TIED MAINLY TO LAST OF SHORT WVS SPIRALING AROUND 500HPA
CUT OFF...DIURNAL HEATING AND TRRN. CLOUDS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH BREAKS OF SUN WILL INCR ALONG W PERIPHERY OF
FCA...AND IN THE SOUTHEAST. MOST OF AREA HAS A CHANCE TO SEE
SUNSET SUN EVENING. WITH LESS PCPN...SOME SUN MAX TEMPS WILL
RECOVER TO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WITH SOME MID 60S SE ON SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE CUT OFF EXITS INTO LABRADOR...AND THE BEGINNINGS
OF THE NEXT MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE TAKE SHAPE AS A 500HPA RIDGE
BUILDS FM MISS VLY TO HUDSON BAY CANADA AND THEN STARTS BUILDING
EAST.
AT THE SFC LARGE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GRTLKS MONDAY...AND
ACROSS FCA MON NT. UNDER STRONG SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPS
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S WITH LOW 70S IN VLYS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALB.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS UNDER
THE SFC HIGH...AND LOWS IN 30S AND LOW 40S. THERE MAY BE FROST AND
FREEZE ISSUES PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIR TRRN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PATTERN CHANGE THAT SET UP MONDAY...BECOMES THE DOMINATE
REGIME DURING THE EFP. 500HPA RIDGE BUILDS FM GULF COAST TO JAMES
BAY...THEN SHIFTS TO EASTERN SEABOARD. 590DM CLOSED HIGH OVER MUCH
OF EAST FROM LATE WED INTO WEEKEND. THIS SIGNAL HAS BEEN THERE FOR
DAYS IN GFS...AND THERE`S MORE AGREEMENT BTWN GFS/GEM/12UTC ECMWF
AND ENSEMBLES IN DAYS 5-7 THAN IN THE SHORT TERM.
AT SFC COOLER BUT MODERATED CANADIAN HIGH HOLDS OVER RGN TUES
BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE. WAA BEGINS POURING OVER TOP OF 500HPA
RIDGE AS SFC WMFNT SURGES THROUGH FCA TUES NT AND WED WITH
-SHRA/TSTMS. THIS HAS ALL THE HALLMARKS OF MCS RIDGE ROLLERS.
BY WED EVENING FCA AND MUCH OF USA FROM ROCKIES TO THE SEABOARD IS
UNDER THE EASTERN RIDGE...AND BERMUDA HIGH. TEMPERATURES WHICH
STARTED THE WEEK WELL BLO NORMAL WILL SURGE TO 70S TUES...MID 70S
TO LOW 80S WED...THE 80S THURS AND TWRD 90 FRI.
WILL POPULATE WITH OVERNIGHT WPC GRIDS. ECMWF CLOSE ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME TO GFS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN IS RATHER PATCHY OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT COVERAGE
SHOULD INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY STRENGTHENS
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST. CEILINGS HAVE DROPPED TO MVFR/IFR
LEVELS.
STEADIER RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS AT ALL SITES. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXTENT OF THE
RAIN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT SO GOING VCSH WITH MVFR CEILINGS UNTIL
RADAR TRENDS CAN BE CHECKED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS HAVE INCREASED FROM THE WEST AT KALB...AND WEST TO NORTH WINDS
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
MORNING... BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT AROUND 10 KT BY
AFTERNOON...AND COULD GUST 15 KT TO 20 KT...THEN JUST BECOME STEADY
AT AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR/IFR. -SHRA LIKELY. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SAT NGT-SUN...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SUN NGT-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO SUNDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE AND LINGER ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
INTO LATE SATURDAY BEFORE DRIFTING INTO THE MARITIMES. IT WILL
BRING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THE THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE EAST...AND LEAST
ACROSS THE WEST.
THIS RAINFALL WILL COME ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE PERIODS OF HEAVY/TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
THAT HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST TWO DAYS.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
000
FXUS61 KALY 241313
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
913 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY. A STORM
WILL DEVELOP...INTENSIFY...AND LINGER ON THIS FRONT NEAR THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE STORM WILL DRAW MUCH
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION AND BRING DAMP WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
MEMORIAL DAY AND DRIFT OVER OUR REGION INTO MIDWEEK...WITH FAIR DRY
AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM EDT...HAVE LOWERED TEMPS CONSIDERABLY AS IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT READINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S AND 50S IN MOST
AREAS WITH LOWER 60S ONLY REMAINING ACRS FAR SE ZONES. EXPECT
TEMPS TO ONLY RECOVER A FEW DEGREES THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFT AND
THEN SLOWLY FALL AS STRONG CAA TAKES HOLD.
RAIN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER DYNAMICS AND
BOUNDARY LAYER FRONTOGENESIS SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN.
TONIGHT...RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE...WITH MORE RAIN DEVELOPING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW...INCLUDING WESTERN
AREAS...WHERE RAIN ASSOCIATED MORE DIRECTLY WITH THE UPPER LOW
SHOULD TRACK INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FALL...INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...AND UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT AND IN LINE WITH PAST
FEW RUNS OF THE MODEL SUITE. ONLY DIFFERENCE IN 00UTC RUNS IS NAM
IS A BIT FASTER WITH PROGRESSION OF WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEM...BUT
ITS BEEN THE FAST MODEL FOR SVRL RUNS...AND AT THIS TIME ITS
PROBABLY THE OUTLIER.
BY SAT MORNING THE 500HPA CUT OFF WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK...AND COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE LOW WILL
BE CENTERED JUST OFF BOSTON. 500HPA CUT OFF WILL TAKE ON A NEG
TILT SAT...AND ENHANCE COOL CONVEYOR BELT PCPN FM COASTAL
LOW...BACK INTO MOST OF THE FCA. WITH COASTAL LOW ALMOST
VERTICAL...12MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NYS...IT SHOULD BE A RAW
NOVEMBER-ESQ DAY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND A BRISK CHILLY
NORTH WIND. H850 TEMPS FALL TO -2 TO -4C OVER FCA...COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SNOW OVER HIGHEST TRRN. (YES ITS MAY 25TH IN NEW YORK WERE
TALKING ABOUT HERE). AT SFC HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE IN MID 40S TO
MID 50S...15-20 DEG BLO NRML. LOWS SAT NT WILL FALL TO MID 30S TO
LOW 40S. PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST ON EAST SIDE OF FCA AND
OVER HIR TRRN...DIMINISHING TWRD THE WEST. DURING SAT AND SAT NT
ANOTHER 0.30 TO 1.0 INCHES OF QPF IS FCST BY GFS...0.10 TO 0.5 BY
GEM...AND A TENTH TO AN INCH BY THE "FAST" NAM WHICH IS ALL EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER
THE GEM/ECMWF/GFS TAKE THE VERTICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY AND ONWARD INTO THE MARITIMES...IN LINE WITH
CURRENT FCST. PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH TO SCT -SHRA EAST...ISOLD -SHRA
WEST...TIED MAINLY TO LAST OF SHORT WVS SPIRALING AROUND 500HPA
CUT OFF...DIURNAL HEATING AND TRRN. CLOUDS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH BREAKS OF SUN WILL INCR ALONG W PERIPHERY OF
FCA...AND IN THE SOUTHEAST. MOST OF AREA HAS A CHANCE TO SEE
SUNSET SUN EVENING. WITH LESS PCPN...SOME SUN MAX TEMPS WILL
RECOVER TO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WITH SOME MID 60S SE ON SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE CUT OFF EXITS INTO LABRADOR...AND THE BEGINNINGS
OF THE NEXT MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE TAKE SHAPE AS A 500HPA RIDGE
BUILDS FM MISS VLY TO HUDSON BAY CANADA AND THEN STARTS BUILDING
EAST.
AT THE SFC LARGE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GRTLKS MONDAY...AND
ACROSS FCA MON NT. UNDER STRONG SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPS
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S WITH LOW 70S IN VLYS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALB.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS UNDER
THE SFC HIGH...AND LOWS IN 30S AND LOW 40S. THERE MAY BE FROST AND
FREEZE ISSUES PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIR TRRN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PATTERN CHANGE THAT SET UP MONDAY...BECOMES THE DOMINATE
REGIME DURING THE EFP. 500HPA RIDGE BUILDS FM GULF COAST TO JAMES
BAY...THEN SHIFTS TO EASTERN SEABOARD. 590DM CLOSED HIGH OVER MUCH
OF EAST FROM LATE WED INTO WEEKEND. THIS SIGNAL HAS BEEN THERE FOR
DAYS IN GFS...AND THERE`S MORE AGREEMENT BTWN GFS/GEM/12UTC ECMWF
AND ENSEMBLES IN DAYS 5-7 THAN IN THE SHORT TERM.
AT SFC COOLER BUT MODERATED CANADIAN HIGH HOLDS OVER RGN TUES
BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE. WAA BEGINS POURING OVER TOP OF 500HPA
RIDGE AS SFC WMFNT SURGES THROUGH FCA TUES NT AND WED WITH
-SHRA/TSTMS. THIS HAS ALL THE HALLMARKS OF MCS RIDGE ROLLERS.
BY WED EVENING FCA AND MUCH OF USA FROM ROCKIES TO THE SEABOARD IS
UNDER THE EASTERN RIDGE...AND BERMUDA HIGH. TEMPERATURES WHICH
STARTED THE WEEK WELL BLO NORMAL WILL SURGE TO 70S TUES...MID 70S
TO LOW 80S WED...THE 80S THURS AND TWRD 90 FRI.
WILL POPULATE WITH OVERNIGHT WPC GRIDS. ECMWF CLOSE ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME TO GFS.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN IS RATHER PATCHY OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT COVERAGE
SHOULD INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY STRENGTHENS
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST. CEILINGS HAVE DROPPED TO MVFR/IFR
LEVELS.
STEADIER RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS AT ALL SITES. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXTENT OF THE
RAIN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT SO GOING VCSH WITH MVFR CEILINGS UNTIL
RADAR TRENDS CAN BE CHECKED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS HAVE INCREASED FROM THE WEST AT KALB...AND WEST TO NORTH WINDS
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
MORNING... BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT AROUND 10 KT BY
AFTERNOON...AND COULD GUST 15 KT TO 20 KT...THEN JUST BECOME STEADY
AT AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR/IFR. -SHRA LIKELY. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SAT NGT-SUN...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SUN NGT-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO SUNDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE AND LINGER ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
INTO LATE SATURDAY BEFORE DRIFTING INTO THE MARITIMES. IT WILL
BRING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THE THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE EAST...AND LEAST
ACROSS THE WEST.
THIS RAINFALL WILL COME ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE PERIODS OF HEAVY/TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
THAT HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST TWO DAYS.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
000
FXUS61 KBTV 241140
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
740 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND. THE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL WATERWAYS...WITH SOME
RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH SOME HIGH ELEVATION ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 717 AM EDT FRIDAY...UPDATED FCST TO DROP TEMPS BY 3 TO 5
DEGREES ACRS THE SLV AND 1 TO 3 DEGREES OVER THE CPV. ALSO...MADE
SEVERAL TWEAKS TO POPS BASED ON CRNT RADAR DATA. THE COMBINATION
OF LLVL CAA AND UPSLOPE FLW WL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL RAIN ACRS MOST
OF THE FA TODAY. HIGHEST POPS/QPF WL BE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
AND NORTHERN DACKS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WL BE BTWN
0.10 AND 0.40". TEMPS WL REMAIN NEAR STEADY IN THE L/M 40S MTNS TO
NEAR 50 SLV/CPV. ALSO...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH CAN
BE ANTICIPATED...ADDING AN EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR.
A LONG DURATION RAIN WITH SOME ACCUMULATING MTN
SNOW EVENT EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED
BY SUNDAY...WITH SHARP RISES EXPECTED ON AREA WATERWAYS.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COMPLEX DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN
CONUS THIS MORNING...AS BOTH NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ARE
PHASING. NOTICING LARGE PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC/SNE AS TROF BECMS NEGATIVELY TILTED. ALSO...DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LVL DRY SLOT IS ROTATING ACRS THE SE CONUS. THESE FEATURES
COMBINED WITH A DUAL 25H JET STRUCTURE...SIMILAR TO A WINTER-TIME
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WL PRODUCE A COMPLEX WX SCENARIO ACRS OUR FA THIS WKND.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC A SHARP COLD FRNT IS MOVING ACRS OUR
CWA...HELPING TO ENHANCE THE LLVL THERMAL GRADIENT. THIS WL EVENTUALLY
PUSH TWD THE COAST...WITH COASTAL LOW PRES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
RAINFALL...ASSOCIATED WITH TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT AND POST-FRONTAL
MOISTURE. EXPECT OCCASIONAL WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN TODAY...AS FA IS BTWN
SYSTEMS. GFS/NAM SHOW BEST 7H FGEN FORCING AND ASSOCIATED Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING ACRS OUR CWA AFT 18Z. IN ADDITION...WARM MOIST
CONVEYOR BELT SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR CWA...ALONG WITH HEAVIEST QPF. WL
STILL MENTION CAT POPS...BUT QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE BTWN 0.10 AND
0.40" TODAY. TEMPS TODAY WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS WL STRUGGLE IN THE
U30S TO M40S MTNS TO L50S CPV/SLV TO NEAR 60F AT VSF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...POTENT NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY WL ROUND MID/UPPER
LVL TROF BASE AND DEVELOP SFC LOW PRES NEAR CAPE COD BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WL QUICKLY BECM VERTICALLY AND NEGATIVELY
STACKED AS 7H/5H CIRCULATIONS DEEPEN AND BECOME CLOSED. THE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WL ADVECT PLENTY OF DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE
BACK INTO OUR FA BTWN 850 AND 700MB...WHILE A VERY COLD AIR MASS IS
PULLED INTO THE SYSTEM FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS VERY TIGHT
THERMAL GRADIENT...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE RRQ OF 25H JET WL
PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP EVENT ACRS MOST OF
OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY EASTERN DACKS INTO VT. THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE
COASTAL SYSTEM WL HAVE A VERY WINTER-TIME THERMAL/JET STRUCTURE.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION BAND OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH AND ASSOCIATED DEEP
LAYER OMEGA FROM 18Z TODAY THRU 00Z SUNDAY. THIS BAND OF FAVORABLE
LIFT/MOISTURE MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS...WHICH
WL PRODUCE A LONG DURATION PRECIP EVENT. THE FGEN FORCING AND
DEFORMATION ZNS NW OF THE CLOSED SYSTEM IS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT
YOU SEE IN A WINTER TIME COASTAL...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE BACKSIDE
UPSLOPE PARAMETERS.
RAINFALL...EXPECT STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.75"
FOR THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 1.0 TO 2.0" CPV/EASTERN DACKS TO DOWNSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE NEK TO 1.50 TO 2.5"...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MTNS
OF NORTH/CENTRAL VT BY 00Z MONDAY. THESE ANTICIPATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVER A 24 TO 48 PERIOD WL CAUSE ADDITIONAL RISES ON LOCAL
WATERWAYS...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL RIVER AND LOW LYING FLOODING POSSIBLE.
NOTE...THIS WL BE A LONG DURATION EVENT WITH STEADY/MODERATE RAINFALL
RATES...WHICH IS DIFFERENT FROM THURSDAY EVENT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF...THEREFORE NO
FLOOD WATCH WL BE ISSUED ATTM.
SNOWFALL...STILL HAVING A HARD TIME BELIEVING ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS ABOVE 2500 FT ON SAT INTO
SUNDAY. GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND ECMWF PROFILES HAVE INDICATED
THIS POTENTIAL FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AS COLDER AIR IS
WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BLW 0C BY
TONIGHT...WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES BLW 540DAM. THIS
COMBINED WITH SOME COOLING FROM STRONG DYNAMICS WL HELP TO PRODUCE
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACRS THE DACKS AND GREEN MTNS ABOVE
2500FT. WL TRY TO SHOW IN GRIDS...BUT IMPACTS WL BE MINIMAL GIVEN
THE HIGH SNOW LEVELS. THINKING A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
HEAVY WET SNOW WL BE POSSIBLE...WITH 6 INCHES OR SO FOR THE
SUMMITS FROM MT MANSFIELD TO JAY PEAK AND ACRS PARTS OF THE
EASTERN DACKS BY SUNDAY. BEST CHC FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WL BE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPS/WINDS...PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 0C...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS/PRECIP AND A NORTH WIND WL RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY IN THE M/U 30S
MTNS TO M/U 40S SLV/CPV ON SAT/SUNDAY. THE TRENDS HAVE BEEN COOLER AND
COOLER IN THE GUIDANCE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS ON SAT
NIGHT...WITH PRECIP/CLOUDS...THINKING L/M 30S MTNS TO NEAR 40F CPV/SLV.
EXPECT A COLD/BLUSTERY AND WET DAY ON SUNDAY FOR MARATHON
ACTIVITIES IN BURLINGTON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER LOW FINALLY STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THUS BRINGING ANY
PRECIPITATION QUICKLY TO AN END. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST EARLY
NEXT WEEK FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...BUT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN BY MIDWEEK AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE NOTICEABLE WARMING
TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK AND COMBINED WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY FROM THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR
MASS...POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...EXPECT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS WELL AS LIGHT RAIN. THERE WILL ALSO
BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIFR CEILINGS AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA. THE WIND WILL BECOME NORTHWEST ALL AREAS
AT SPEEDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SFC
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE TAF
SITES THRU THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS SFC
LOW PRES TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. A SLOW CLEARING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...W/ VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...A LONG DURATION MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
IS ANTICIPATED FROM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT RISES
ON LARGE STEM RIVERS. EXPECT STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM
0.25 TO 0.75" FOR THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 1.0 TO 2.0" CPV/EASTERN
DACKS TO DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE NEK TO 1.50 TO 2.5"...WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MTNS OF NORTH/CENTRAL VT BY 00Z MONDAY.
THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RECENT RAIN FROM CONVECTION WL PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL MINOR LOW LYING FLOODING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL RIVERS TO APPROACH FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY. NO FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT IF CRNT TRENDS CONTINUE
ANOTHER FLOOD WATCH MAYBE NEEDED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS
HYDROLOGY...TABER
000
FXUS61 KALY 241129
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
729 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY. A STORM
WILL DEVELOP...INTENSIFY...AND LINGER ON THIS FRONT NEAR THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE STORM WILL DRAW MUCH
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION AND BRING DAMP WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
MEMORIAL DAY AND DRIFT OVER OUR REGION INTO MIDWEEK...WITH FAIR DRY
AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BASED ON RELATIVELY LITTLE COVERAGE OF RAIN AT THIS TIME...SOME
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS MORNING. RAIN
SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON
AS UPPER DYNAMICS AND BOUNDARY LAYER FRONTOGENESIS SUPPORT MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT RISE MUCH IF ANY...SO
KEEPING THE FALLING TEMPERATURES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE...WITH MORE RAIN DEVELOPING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW...INCLUDING WESTERN
AREAS...WHERE RAIN ASSOCIATED MORE DIRECTLY WITH THE UPPER LOW
SHOULD TRACK INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FALL...INTO THE 40S IN MANY AREAS...AND UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT AND IN LINE WITH PAST
FEW RUNS OF THE MODEL SUITE. ONLY DIFFERENCE IN 00UTC RUNS IS NAM
IS A BIT FASTER WITH PROGRESSION OF WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEM...BUT
ITS BEEN THE FAST MODEL FOR SVRL RUNS...AND AT THIS TIME ITS
PROBABLY THE OUTLIER.
BY SAT MORNING THE 500HPA CUT OFF WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK...AND COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE LOW WILL
BE CENTERED JUST OFF BOSTON. 500HPA CUT OFF WILL TAKE ON A NEG
TILT SAT...AND ENHANCE COOL CONVEYOR BELT PCPN FM COASTAL
LOW...BACK INTO MOST OF THE FCA. WITH COASTAL LOW ALMOST
VERTICAL...12MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NYS...IT SHOULD BE A RAW
NOVEMBER-ESQ DAY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND A BRISK CHILLY
NORTH WIND. H850 TEMPS FALL TO -2 TO -4C OVER FCA...COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SNOW OVER HIGHEST TRRN. (YES ITS MAY 25TH IN NEW YORK WERE
TALKING ABOUT HERE). AT SFC HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE IN MID 40S TO
MID 50S...15-20 DEG BLO NRML. LOWS SAT NT WILL FALL TO MID 30S TO
LOW 40S. PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST ON EAST SIDE OF FCA AND
OVER HIR TRRN...DIMINISHING TWRD THE WEST. DURING SAT AND SAT NT
ANOTHER 0.30 TO 1.0 INCHES OF QPF IS FCST BY GFS...0.10 TO 0.5 BY
GEM...AND A TENTH TO AN INCH BY THE "FAST" NAM WHICH IS ALL EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER
THE GEM/ECMWF/GFS TAKE THE VERTICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY AND ONWARD INTO THE MARITIMES...IN LINE WITH
CURRENT FCST. PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH TO SCT -SHRA EAST...ISOLD -SHRA
WEST...TIED MAINLY TO LAST OF SHORT WVS SPIRALING AROUND 500HPA
CUT OFF...DIURNAL HEATING AND TRRN. CLOUDS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH BREAKS OF SUN WILL INCR ALONG W PERIPHERY OF
FCA...AND IN THE SOUTHEAST. MOST OF AREA HAS A CHANCE TO SEE
SUNSET SUN EVENING. WITH LESS PCPN...SOME SUN MAX TEMPS WILL
RECOVER TO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WITH SOME MID 60S SE ON SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE CUT OFF EXITS INTO LABRADOR...AND THE BEGINNINGS
OF THE NEXT MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE TAKE SHAPE AS A 500HPA RIDGE
BUILDS FM MISS VLY TO HUDSON BAY CANADA AND THEN STARTS BUILDING
EAST.
AT THE SFC LARGE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GRTLKS MONDAY...AND
ACROSS FCA MON NT. UNDER STRONG SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPS
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S WITH LOW 70S IN VLYS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALB.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS UNDER
THE SFC HIGH...AND LOWS IN 30S AND LOW 40S. THERE MAY BE FROST AND
FREEZE ISSUES PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIR TRRN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PATTERN CHANGE THAT SET UP MONDAY...BECOMES THE DOMINATE
REGIME DURING THE EFP. 500HPA RIDGE BUILDS FM GULF COAST TO JAMES
BAY...THEN SHIFTS TO EASTERN SEABOARD. 590DM CLOSED HIGH OVER MUCH
OF EAST FROM LATE WED INTO WEEKEND. THIS SIGNAL HAS BEEN THERE FOR
DAYS IN GFS...AND THERE`S MORE AGREEMENT BTWN GFS/GEM/12UTC ECMWF
AND ENSEMBLES IN DAYS 5-7 THAN IN THE SHORT TERM.
AT SFC COOLER BUT MODERATED CANADIAN HIGH HOLDS OVER RGN TUES
BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE. WAA BEGINS POURING OVER TOP OF 500HPA
RIDGE AS SFC WMFNT SURGES THROUGH FCA TUES NT AND WED WITH
-SHRA/TSTMS. THIS HAS ALL THE HALLMARKS OF MCS RIDGE ROLLERS.
BY WED EVENING FCA AND MUCH OF USA FROM ROCKIES TO THE SEABOARD IS
UNDER THE EASTERN RIDGE...AND BERMUDA HIGH. TEMPERATURES WHICH
STARTED THE WEEK WELL BLO NORMAL WILL SURGE TO 70S TUES...MID 70S
TO LOW 80S WED...THE 80S THURS AND TWRD 90 FRI.
WILL POPULATE WITH OVERNIGHT WPC GRIDS. ECMWF CLOSE ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME TO GFS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN IS RATHER PATCHY OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT COVERAGE
SHOULD INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY STRENGTHENS
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST. CEILINGS HAVE DROPPED TO MVFR/IFR
LEVELS.
STEADIER RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS AT ALL SITES. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXTENT OF THE
RAIN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT SO GOING VCSH WITH MVFR CEILINGS UNTIL
RADAR TRENDS CAN BE CHECKED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS HAVE INCREASED FROM THE WEST AT KALB...AND WEST TO NORTH WINDS
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
MORNING... BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT AROUND 10 KT BY
AFTERNOON...AND COULD GUST 15 KT TO 20 KT...THEN JUST BECOME STEADY
AT AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR/IFR. -SHRA LIKELY. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SAT NGT-SUN...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SUN NGT-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO SUNDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE AND LINGER ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
INTO LATE SATURDAY BEFORE DRIFTING INTO THE MARITIMES. IT WILL
BRING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THE THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE EAST...AND LEAST
ACROSS THE WEST.
THIS RAINFALL WILL COME ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE PERIODS OF HEAVY/TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
THAT HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST TWO DAYS.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
000
FXUS61 KBTV 241121
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
721 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND. THE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL WATERWAYS...WITH SOME
RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH SOME HIGH ELEVATION ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 717 AM EDT FRIDAY...UPDATED FCST TO DROP TEMPS BY 3 TO 5
DEGREES ACRS THE SLV AND 1 TO 3 DEGREES OVER THE CPV. ALSO...MADE
SEVERAL TWEAKS TO POPS BASED ON CRNT RADAR DATA. THE COMBINATION
OF LLVL CAA AND UPSLOPE FLW WL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL RAIN ACRS MOST
OF THE FA TODAY. HIGHEST POPS/QPF WL BE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
AND NORTHERN DACKS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WL BE BTWN
0.10 AND 0.40". TEMPS WL REMAIN NEAR STEADY IN THE L/M 40S MTNS TO
NEAR 50 SLV/CPV. ALSO...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH CAN
BE ANTICIPATED...ADDING AN EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR.
A LONG DURATION RAIN WITH SOME ACCUMULATING MTN
SNOW EVENT EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED
BY SUNDAY...WITH SHARP RISES EXPECTED ON AREA WATERWAYS.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COMPLEX DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN
CONUS THIS MORNING...AS BOTH NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ARE
PHASING. NOTICING LARGE PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC/SNE AS TROF BECMS NEGATIVELY TILTED. ALSO...DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LVL DRY SLOT IS ROTATING ACRS THE SE CONUS. THESE FEATURES
COMBINED WITH A DUAL 25H JET STRUCTURE...SIMILAR TO A WINTER-TIME
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WL PRODUCE A COMPLEX WX SCENARIO ACRS OUR FA THIS WKND.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC A SHARP COLD FRNT IS MOVING ACRS OUR
CWA...HELPING TO ENHANCE THE LLVL THERMAL GRADIENT. THIS WL EVENTUALLY
PUSH TWD THE COAST...WITH COASTAL LOW PRES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
RAINFALL...ASSOCIATED WITH TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT AND POST-FRONTAL
MOISTURE. EXPECT OCCASIONAL WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN TODAY...AS FA IS BTWN
SYSTEMS. GFS/NAM SHOW BEST 7H FGEN FORCING AND ASSOCIATED Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING ACRS OUR CWA AFT 18Z. IN ADDITION...WARM MOIST
CONVEYOR BELT SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR CWA...ALONG WITH HEAVIEST QPF. WL
STILL MENTION CAT POPS...BUT QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE BTWN 0.10 AND
0.40" TODAY. TEMPS TODAY WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS WL STRUGGLE IN THE
U30S TO M40S MTNS TO L50S CPV/SLV TO NEAR 60F AT VSF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...POTENT NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY WL ROUND MID/UPPER
LVL TROF BASE AND DEVELOP SFC LOW PRES NEAR CAPE COD BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WL QUICKLY BECM VERTICALLY AND NEGATIVELY
STACKED AS 7H/5H CIRCULATIONS DEEPEN AND BECOME CLOSED. THE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WL ADVECT PLENTY OF DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE
BACK INTO OUR FA BTWN 850 AND 700MB...WHILE A VERY COLD AIRMASS IS
PULLED INTO THE SYSTEM FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS VERY TIGHT
THERMAL GRADIENT...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE RRQ OF 25H JET WL
PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP EVENT ACRS MOST OF
OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY EASTERN DACKS INTO VT. THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE
COASTAL SYSTEM WL HAVE A VERY WINTER-TIME THERMAL/JET STRUCTURE.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION BAND OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH AND ASSOCIATED DEEP
LAYER OMEGA FROM 18Z TODAY THRU 00Z SUNDAY. THIS BAND OF FAVORABLE
LIFT/MOISTURE MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS...WHICH
WL PRODUCE A LONG DURATION PRECIP EVENT. THE FGEN FORCING AND
DEFORMATION ZNS NW OF THE CLOSED SYSTEM IS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT
YOU SEE IN A WINTER TIME COASTAL...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE BACKSIDE
UPSLOPE PARAMETERS.
RAINFALL...EXPECT STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.75"
FOR THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 1.0 TO 2.0" CPV/EASTERN DACKS TO DOWNSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE NEK TO 1.50 TO 2.5"...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MTNS
OF NORTH/CENTRAL VT BY 00Z MONDAY. THESE ANTICIPATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVER A 24 TO 48 PERIOD WL CAUSE ADDITIONAL RISES ON LOCAL
WATERWAYS...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL RIVER AND LOW LYING FLOODING POSSIBLE.
NOTE...THIS WL BE A LONG DURATION EVENT WITH STEADY/MODERATE RAINFALL
RATES...WHICH IS DIFFERENT FROM THURSDAY EVENT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF...THEREFORE NO
FLOOD WATCH WL BE ISSUED ATTM.
SNOWFALL...STILL HAVING A HARD TIME BELIEVING ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS ABOVE 2500 FT ON SAT INTO
SUNDAY. GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND ECMWF PROFILES HAVE INDICATED
THIS POTENTIAL FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AS COLDER AIR IS
WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BLW 0C BY
TONIGHT...WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES BLW 540DAM. THIS
COMBINED WITH SOME COOLING FROM STRONG DYNAMICS WL HELP TO PRODUCE
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACRS THE DACKS AND GREEN MTNS ABOVE
2500FT. WL TRY TO SHOW IN GRIDS...BUT IMPACTS WL BE MINIMAL GIVEN
THE HIGH SNOW LEVELS. THINKING A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
HEAVY WET SNOW WL BE POSSIBLE...WITH 6 INCHES OR SO FOR THE
SUMMITS FROM MT MANSFIELD TO JAY PEAK AND ACRS PARTS OF THE
EASTERN DACKS BY SUNDAY. BEST CHC FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WL BE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPS/WINDS...PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 0C...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS/PRECIP AND A NORTH WIND WL RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY IN THE M/U 30S
MTNS TO M/U 40S SLV/CPV ON SAT/SUNDAY. THE TRENDS HAVE BEEN COOLER AND
COOLER IN THE GUIDANCE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS ON SAT
NIGHT...WITH PRECIP/CLOUDS...THINKING L/M 30S MTNS TO NEAR 40F CPV/SLV.
EXPECT A COLD/BLUSTERY AND WET DAY ON SUNDAY FOR MARATHON
ACTIVITIES IN BURLINGTON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER LOW FINALLY STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THUS BRINGING ANY
PRECIPITATION QUICKLY TO AN END. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST EARLY
NEXT WEEK FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...BUT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN BY MIDWEEK AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE NOTICEABLE WARMING
TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK AND COMBINED WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY FROM THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR
MASS...POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...EXPECT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS WELL AS LIGHT RAIN. THERE WILL ALSO
BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIFR CEILINGS AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA. THE WIND WILL BECOME NORTHWEST ALL AREAS
AT SPEEDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SFC
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE TAF
SITES THRU THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS SFC
LOW PRES TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. A SLOW CLEARING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...W/ VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...A LONG DURATION MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
IS ANTICIPATED FROM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT RISES
ON LARGE STEM RIVERS. EXPECT STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM
0.25 TO 0.75" FOR THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 1.0 TO 2.0" CPV/EASTERN
DACKS TO DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE NEK TO 1.50 TO 2.5"...WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MTNS OF NORTH/CENTRAL VT BY 00Z MONDAY.
THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RECENT RAIN FROM CONVECTION WL PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL MINOR LOW LYING FLOODING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL RIVERS TO APPROACH FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY. NO FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT IF CRNT TRENDS CONTINUE
ANOTHER FLOOD WATCH MAYBE NEEDED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS
HYDROLOGY...
000
FXUS61 KALY 241007
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
607 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY. A STORM
WILL DEVELOP...INTENSIFY...AND LINGER ON THIS FRONT NEAR THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE STORM WILL DRAW MUCH
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION AND BRING DAMP WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
MEMORIAL DAY AND DRIFT OVER OUR REGION INTO MIDWEEK...WITH FAIR DRY
AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BASED ON RELATIVELY LITTLE COVERAGE OF RAIN AT THIS TIME...SOME
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS MORNING. RAIN
SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON
AS UPPER DYNAMICS AND BOUNDARY LAYER FRONTOGENESIS SUPPORT MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT RISE MUCH IF ANY...SO
KEEPING THE FALLING TEMPERATURES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE...WITH MORE RAIN DEVELOPING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW...INCLUDING WESTERN
AREAS...WHERE RAIN ASSOCIATED MORE DIRECTLY WITH THE UPPER LOW
SHOULD TRACK INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FALL...INTO THE 40S IN MANY AREAS...AND UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE OOUTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT AND IN LINE WITH PAST
FEW RUNS OF THE MODEL SUITE. ONLY DIFFERENCE IN 00UTC RUNS IS NAM
IS A BIT FASTER WITH PROGRESSION OF WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEM...BUT
ITS BEEN THE FAST MODEL FOR SVRL RUNS...AND AT THIS TIME ITS
PROBABLY THE OUTLIER.
BY SAT MORNING THE 500HPA CUT OFF WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK...AND COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE LOW WILL
BE CENTERED JUST OFF BOSTON. 500HPA CUT OFF WILL TAKE ON A NEG
TILT SAT...AND ENHANCE COOL CONVEYOR BELT PCPN FM COASTAL
LOW...BACK INTO MOST OF THE FCA. WITH COASTAL LOW ALMOST
VERTICAL...12MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NYS...IT SHOULD BE A RAW
NOVEMBER-ESQ DAY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND A BRISK CHILLY
NORTH WIND. H850 TEMPS FALL TO -2 TO -4C OVER FCA...COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SNOW OVER HIGHEST TRRN. (YES ITS MAY 25TH IN NEW YORK WERE
TALKING ABOUT HERE). AT SFC HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE IN MID 40S TO
MID 50S...15-20 DEG BLO NRML. LOWS SAT NT WILL FALL TO MID 30S TO
LOW 40S. PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST ON EAST SIDE OF FCA AND
OVER HIR TRRN...DIMINISHING TWRD THE WEST. DURING SAT AND SAT NT
ANOTHER 0.30 TO 1.0 INCHES OF QPF IS FCST BY GFS...0.10 TO 0.5 BY
GEM...AND A TENTH TO AN INCH BY THE "FAST" NAM WHICH IS ALL EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER
THE GEM/ECMWF/GFS TAKE THE VERTICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY AND ONWARD INTO THE MARITIMES...IN LINE WITH
CURRENT FCST. PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH TO SCT -SHRA EAST...ISOLD -SHRA
WEST...TIED MAINLY TO LAST OF SHORT WVS SPIRALING AROUND 500HPA
CUT OFF...DIURNAL HEATING AND TRRN. CLOUDS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH BREAKS OF SUN WILL INCR ALONG W PERIPHERY OF
FCA...AND IN THE SOUTHEAST. MOST OF AREA HAS A CHANCE TO SEE
SUNSET SUN EVENING. WITH LESS PCPN...SOME SUN MAX TEMPS WILL
RECOVER TO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WITH SOME MID 60S SE ON SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE CUT OFF EXITS INTO LABRADOR...AND THE BEGINNINGS
OF THE NEXT MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE TAKE SHAPE AS A 500HPA RIDGE
BUILDS FM MISS VLY TO HUDSON BAY CANADA AND THEN STARTS BUILDING
EAST.
AT THE SFC LARGE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GRTLKS MONDAY...AND
ACROSS FCA MON NT. UNDER STRONG SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPS
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S WITH LOW 70S IN VLYS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALB.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS UNDER
THE SFC HIGH...AND LOWS IN 30S AND LOW 40S. THERE MAY BE FROST AND
FREEZE ISSUES PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIR TRRN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PATTERN CHANGE THAT SET UP MONDAY...BECOMES THE DOMINATE
REGIME DURING THE EFP. 500HPA RIDGE BUILDS FM GULF COAST TO JAMES
BAY...THEN SHIFTS TO EASTERN SEABOARD. 590DM CLOSED HIGH OVER MUCH
OF EAST FROM LATE WED INTO WEEKEND. THIS SIGNAL HAS BEEN THERE FOR
DAYS IN GFS...AND THERE`S MORE AGREEMENT BWTN GFS/GEM/12UTC ECMWF
AND ENSEMBLES IN DAYS 5-7 THAN IN THE SHORT TERM.
AT SFC COOLER BUT MODERATED CANADIAN HIGH HOLDS OVER RGN TUES
BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE. WAA BEGINS POURING OVER TOP OF 500HPA
RIDGE AS SFC WMFNT SURGES THROUGH FCA TUES NT AND WED WITH
-SHRA/TSTMS. THIS HAS ALL THE HALLMARKS OF MCS RIDGE ROLLERS.
BY WED EVENING FCA AND MUCH OF USA FROM ROCKIES TO THE SEABOARD IS
UNDER THE EASTERN RIDGE...AND BERMUDA HIGH. TEMPERATURES WHICH
STARTED THE WEEK WELL BLO NORMAL WILL SURGE TO 70S TUES...MID 70S
TO LOW 80S WED...THE 80S THURS AND TWRD 90 FRI.
WILL POPULATE WITH OVERNIGHT WPC GRIDS. ECMWF CLOSE ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME TO GFS.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 06Z SATURDAY. WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY...IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE...WITH OCCASIONAL
FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR. AFTER 01Z-03Z...VCSH WITH
POTENTIAL SLOW IMPROVEMENTS TO CEILINGS INTO SOLID MVFR...BORDERING
ON LOW VFR. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO SHIFT A BIT EAST OF THE
TAF SITES BY THE EVENING...VISIBILITIES COULD IMPROVE TO VFR.
LIGHT WEST OT NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME
NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AT AROUND 10 KT. THERE COULD BE
SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 15 KT AND 20 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT REMAINING STEADY AROUND 10 KT THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-SAT...MVFR/IFR. -SHRA LIKELY. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SAT NGT-SUN...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SUN NGT-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO SUNDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE AND LINGER ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
INTO LATE SATURDAY BEFORE DRIFTING INTO THE MARITIMES. IT WILL
BRING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THE THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE EAST...AND LEAST
ACROSS THE WEST.
THIS RAINFALL WILL COME ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE PERIODS OF HEAVY/TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
THAT HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST TWO DAYS.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
000
FXUS61 KBTV 240821
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
421 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND. THE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL WATERWAYS...WITH SOME
RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH SOME HIGH ELEVATION ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...A LONG DURATION RAIN WITH SOME ACCUMULATING MTN
SNOW EVENT EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED
BY SUNDAY...WITH SHARP RISES EXPECTED ON AREA WATERWAYS.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COMPLEX DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN
CONUS THIS MORNING...AS BOTH NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ARE
PHASING. NOTICING LARGE PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC/SNE AS TROF BECMS NEGATIVELY TILTED. ALSO...DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LVL DRY SLOT IS ROTATING ACRS THE SE CONUS. THESE FEATURES
COMBINED WITH A DUAL 25H JET STRUCTURE...SIMILAR TO A WINTER-TIME
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WL PRODUCE A COMPLEX WX SCENARIO ACRS OUR FA THIS WKND.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC A SHARP COLD FRNT IS MOVING ACRS OUR
CWA...HELPING TO ENHANCE THE LLVL THERMAL GRADIENT. THIS WL EVENTUALLY
PUSH TWD THE COAST...WITH COASTAL LOW PRES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
RAINFALL...ASSOCIATED WITH TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT AND POST-FRONTAL
MOISTURE. EXPECT OCCASIONAL WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN TODAY...AS FA IS BTWN
SYSTEMS. GFS/NAM SHOW BEST 7H FGEN FORCING AND ASSOCIATED Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING ACRS OUR CWA AFT 18Z. IN ADDITION...WARM MOIST
CONVEYOR BELT SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR CWA...ALONG WITH HEAVIEST QPF. WL
STILL MENTION CAT POPS...BUT QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE BTWN 0.10 AND
0.40" TODAY. TEMPS TODAY WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS WL STRUGGLE IN THE
U30S TO M40S MTNS TO L50S CPV/SLV TO NEAR 60F AT VSF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...POTENT NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY WL ROUND MID/UPPER
LVL TROF BASE AND DEVELOP SFC LOW PRES NEAR CAPE COD BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WL QUICKLY BECM VERTICALLY AND NEGATIVELY
STACKED AS 7H/5H CIRCULATIONS DEEPEN AND BECOME CLOSED. THE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WL ADVECT PLENTY OF DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE
BACK INTO OUR FA BTWN 850 AND 700MB...WHILE A VERY COLD AIRMASS IS
PULLED INTO THE SYSTEM FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS VERY TIGHT
THERMAL GRADIENT...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE RRQ OF 25H JET WL
PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP EVENT ACRS MOST OF
OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY EASTERN DACKS INTO VT. THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE
COASTAL SYSTEM WL HAVE A VERY WINTER-TIME THERMAL/JET STRUCTURE.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION BAND OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH AND ASSOCIATED DEEP
LAYER OMEGA FROM 18Z TODAY THRU 00Z SUNDAY. THIS BAND OF FAVORABLE
LIFT/MOISTURE MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS...WHICH
WL PRODUCE A LONG DURATION PRECIP EVENT. THE FGEN FORCING AND
DEFORMATION ZNS NW OF THE CLOSED SYSTEM IS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT
YOU SEE IN A WINTER TIME COASTAL...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE BACKSIDE
UPSLOPE PARAMETERS.
RAINFALL...EXPECT STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.75"
FOR THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 1.0 TO 2.0" CPV/EASTERN DACKS TO DOWNSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE NEK TO 1.50 TO 2.5"...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MTNS
OF NORTH/CENTRAL VT BY 00Z MONDAY. THESE ANTICIPATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVER A 24 TO 48 PERIOD WL CAUSE ADDITIONAL RISES ON LOCAL
WATERWAYS...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL RIVER AND LOW LYING FLOODING POSSIBLE.
NOTE...THIS WL BE A LONG DURATION EVENT WITH STEADY/MODERATE RAINFALL
RATES...WHICH IS DIFFERENT FROM THURSDAY EVENT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF...THEREFORE NO
FLOOD WATCH WL BE ISSUED ATTM.
SNOWFALL...STILL HAVING A HARD TIME BELIEVING ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS ABOVE 2500 FT ON SAT INTO
SUNDAY. GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND ECMWF PROFILES HAVE INDICATED
THIS POTENTIAL FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AS COLDER AIR IS
WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BLW 0C BY
TONIGHT...WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES BLW 540DAM. THIS
COMBINED WITH SOME COOLING FROM STRONG DYNAMICS WL HELP TO PRODUCE
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACRS THE DACKS AND GREEN MTNS ABOVE
2500FT. WL TRY TO SHOW IN GRIDS...BUT IMPACTS WL BE MINIMAL GIVEN
THE HIGH SNOW LEVELS. THINKING A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
HEAVY WET SNOW WL BE POSSIBLE...WITH 6 INCHES OR SO FOR THE
SUMMITS FROM MT MANSFIELD TO JAY PEAK AND ACRS PARTS OF THE
EASTERN DACKS BY SUNDAY. BEST CHC FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WL BE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPS/WINDS...PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 0C...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS/PRECIP AND A NORTH WIND WL RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY IN THE M/U 30S
MTNS TO M/U 40S SLV/CPV ON SAT/SUNDAY. THE TRENDS HAVE BEEN COOLER AND
COOLER IN THE GUIDANCE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS ON SAT
NIGHT...WITH PRECIP/CLOUDS...THINKING L/M 30S MTNS TO NEAR 40F CPV/SLV.
EXPECT A COLD/BLUSTERY AND WET DAY ON SUNDAY FOR MARATHON
ACTIVITIES IN BURLINGTON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER LOW FINALLY STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THUS BRINGING ANY
PRECIPITATION QUICKLY TO AN END. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST EARLY
NEXT WEEK FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...BUT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN BY MIDWEEK AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE NOTICEABLE WARMING
TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK AND COMBINED WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY FROM THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR
MASS...POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...EXPECT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS WELL AS LIGHT RAIN. THERE WILL ALSO
BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIFR CEILINGS AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA. THE WIND WILL BECOME NORTHWEST ALL AREAS
AT SPEEDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SFC
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE TAF
SITES THRU THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS SFC
LOW PRES TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. A SLOW CLEARING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...W/ VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...A LONG DURATION MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
IS ANTICIPATED FROM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT RISES
ON LARGE STEM RIVERS. EXPECT STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM
0.25 TO 0.75" FOR THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 1.0 TO 2.0" CPV/EASTERN
DACKS TO DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE NEK TO 1.50 TO 2.5"...WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MTNS OF NORTH/CENTRAL VT BY 00Z MONDAY.
THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RECENT RAIN FROM CONVECTION WL PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL MINOR LOW LYING FLOODING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL RIVERS TO APPROACH FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY. NO FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT IF CRNT TRENDS CONTINUE
ANOTHER FLOOD WATCH MAYBE NEEDED FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS
HYDROLOGY...TABER
000
FXUS61 KALY 240729
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
327 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY. A STORM
WILL DEVELOP...INTENSIFY...AND LINGER ON THIS FRONT NEAR THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE STORM WILL DRAW MUCH
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION AND BRING DAMP WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
MEMORIAL DAY AND DRIFT OVER OUR REGION INTO MIDWEEK...WITH FAIR DRY
AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS BEING CANCELED SINCE THERE IS NO MORE
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL IN THE REGION...AND A STEADIER LONG TERM RAIN IS
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPPER LOW STILL FORMING...AND AREA OF RAIN IS SLOWLY BUILDING EAST.
RAIN COVERAGE IS A BIT PATCHIER TO THE WEST...BUT EVEN WESTERN AREAS
SHOULD SEE OCCASIONAL RAIN...JUST NOT AS STEADY AS EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY IS MOSTLY
THROUGH THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS HAVE GONE CALM IN SOME AREAS.
UPSTREAM...THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE STRONGER AND THESE WINDS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY IN
MOST AREAS. SOME WESTERN AREAS COULD RECOVER A COUPLE OF DEGREES
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SETS UP.
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO PUSH EAST...SO
EVEN WITH RAIN...EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COULD RISE A
DEGREE OR TWO...BUT AGAIN...FOR ALL PRACTICAL PURPOSES...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY THEN SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE...WITH MORE RAIN DEVELOPING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW...INCLUDING WESTERN
AREAS...WHERE RAIN ASSOCIATED MORE DIRECTLY WITH THE UPPER LOW
SHOULD TRACK INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FALL...INTO THE 40S IN MANY AREAS...AND UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE OOUTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT AND IN LINE WITH PAST
FEW RUNS OF THE MODEL SUITE. ONLY DIFFERENCE IN 00UTC RUNS IS NAM
IS A BIT FASTER WITH PROGRESSION OF WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEM...BUT
ITS BEEN THE FAST MODEL FOR SVRL RUNS...AND AT THIS TIME ITS
PROBABLY THE OUTLIER.
BY SAT MORNING THE 500HPA CUT OFF WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK...AND COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE LOW WILL
BE CENTERED JUST OFF BOSTON. 500HPA CUT OFF WILL TAKE ON A NEG
TILT SAT...AND ENHANCE COOL CONVEYOR BELT PCPN FM COASTAL
LOW...BACK INTO MOST OF THE FCA. WITH COASTAL LOW ALMOST
VERTICAL...12MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NYS...IT SHOULD BE A RAW
NOVEMBER-ESQ DAY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND A BRISK CHILLY
NORTH WIND. H850 TEMPS FALL TO -2 TO -4C OVER FCA...COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SNOW OVER HIGHEST TRRN. (YES ITS MAY 25TH IN NEW YORK WERE
TALKING ABOUT HERE). AT SFC HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE IN MID 40S TO
MID 50S...15-20 DEG BLO NRML. LOWS SAT NT WILL FALL TO MID 30S TO
LOW 40S. PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST ON EAST SIDE OF FCA AND
OVER HIR TRRN...DIMINISHING TWRD THE WEST. DURING SAT AND SAT NT
ANOTHER 0.30 TO 1.0 INCHES OF QPF IS FCST BY GFS...0.10 TO 0.5 BY
GEM...AND A TENTH TO AN INCH BY THE "FAST" NAM WHICH IS ALL EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER
THE GEM/ECMWF/GFS TAKE THE VERTICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY AND ONWARD INTO THE MARITIMES...IN LINE WITH
CURRENT FCST. PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH TO SCT -SHRA EAST...ISOLD -SHRA
WEST...TIED MAINLY TO LAST OF SHORT WVS SPIRALING AROUND 500HPA
CUT OFF...DIURNAL HEATING AND TRRN. CLOUDS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH BREAKS OF SUN WILL INCR ALONG W PERIPHERY OF
FCA...AND IN THE SOUTHEAST. MOST OF AREA HAS A CHANCE TO SEE
SUNSET SUN EVENING. WITH LESS PCPN...SOME SUN MAX TEMPS WILL
RECOVER TO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WITH SOME MID 60S SE ON SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE CUT OFF EXITS INTO LABRADOR...AND THE BEGINNINGS
OF THE NEXT MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE TAKE SHAPE AS A 500HPA RIDGE
BUILDS FM MISS VLY TO HUDSON BAY CANADA AND THEN STARTS BUILDING
EAST.
AT THE SFC LARGE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GRTLKS MONDAY...AND
ACROSS FCA MON NT. UNDER STRONG SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPS
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S WITH LOW 70S IN VLYS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALB.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS UNDER
THE SFC HIGH...AND LOWS IN 30S AND LOW 40S. THERE MAY BE FROST AND
FREEZE ISSUES PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIR TRRN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PATTERN CHANGE THAT SET UP MONDAY...BECOMES THE DOMINATE
REGIME DURING THE EFP. 500HPA RIDGE BUILDS FM GULF COAST TO JAMES
BAY...THEN SHIFTS TO EASTERN SEABOARD. 590DM CLOSED HIGH OVER MUCH
OF EAST FROM LATE WED INTO WEEKEND. THIS SIGNAL HAS BEEN THERE FOR
DAYS IN GFS...AND THERE`S MORE AGREEMENT BWTN GFS/GEM/12UTC ECMWF
AND ENSEMBLES IN DAYS 5-7 THAN IN THE SHORT TERM.
AT SFC COOLER BUT MODERATED CANADIAN HIGH HOLDS OVER RGN TUES
BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE. WAA BEGINS POURING OVER TOP OF 500HPA
RIDGE AS SFC WMFNT SURGES THROUGH FCA TUES NT AND WED WITH
-SHRA/TSTMS. THIS HAS ALL THE HALLMARKS OF MCS RIDGE ROLLERS.
BY WED EVENING FCA AND MUCH OF USA FROM ROCKIES TO THE SEABOARD IS
UNDER THE EASTERN RIDGE...AND BERMUDA HIGH. TEMPERATURES WHICH
STARTED THE WEEK WELL BLO NORMAL WILL SURGE TO 70S TUES...MID 70S
TO LOW 80S WED...THE 80S THURS AND TWRD 90 FRI.
WILL POPULATE WITH OVERNIGHT WPC GRIDS. ECMWF CLOSE ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME TO GFS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 06Z SATURDAY. WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY...IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE...WITH OCCASIONAL
FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR. AFTER 01Z-03Z...VCSH WITH
POTENTIAL SLOW IMPROVEMENTS TO CEILINGS INTO SOLID MVFR...BORDERING
ON LOW VFR. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO SHIFT A BIT EAST OF THE
TAF SITES BY THE EVENING...VISIBILITIES COULD IMPROVE TO VFR.
LIGHT WEST OT NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME
NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AT AROUND 10 KT. THERE COULD BE
SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 15 KT AND 20 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT REMAINING STEADY AROUND 10 KT THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-SAT...MVFR/IFR. -SHRA LIKELY. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SAT NGT-SUN...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SUN NGT-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO SUNDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE AND LINGER ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
INTO LATE SATURDAY BEFORE DRIFTING INTO THE MARITIMES. IT WILL
BRING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THE THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE EAST...AND LEAST
ACROSS THE WEST.
THIS RAINFALL WILL COME ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE PERIODS OF HEAVY/TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
THAT HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST TWO DAYS.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
000
FXUS61 KALY 240727
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
327 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY. A STORM WILL
DEVELOP...INTENSIFY...AND LINGER ON THIS FRONT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE STORM WILL DRAW MUCH COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AND BRING DAMP WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
MEMORIAL DAY AND DRIFT OVER OUR REGION INTO MIDWEEK...WITH FAIR
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LASH FLOOD WATCH IS BEING CANCELED SINCE THERE IS NO MORE
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL IN THE REGION...AND A STEADIER LONG TERM RAIN IS
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPPER LOW STILL FORMING...AND AREA OF RAIN IS SLOWLY BUILDING EAST.
RAIN COVERAGE IS A BIT PATCHIER TO THE WEST...BUT EVEN WESTERN AREAS
SHOULD SEE OCCASIONAL RAIN...JUST NOT AS STEADY AS EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY IS MOSTLY
THROUGH THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS HAVE GONE CALM IN SOME AREAS.
UPSTREAM...THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE STRONGER AND THESE WINDS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY IN
MOST AREAS. SOME WESTERN AREAS COULD RECOVER A COUPLE OF DEGREES
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SETS UP.
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO PUSH EAST...SO
EVEN WITH RAIN...EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COULD RISE A
DEGREE OR TWO...BUT AGAIN...FOR ALL PRACTICAL PURPOSES...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY THEN SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE...WITH MORE RAIN DEVELOPING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW...INCLUDING WESTERN
AREAS...WHERE RAIN ASSOCIATED MORE DIRECTLY WITH THE UPPER LOW
SHOULD TRACK INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FALL...INTO THE 40S IN MANY AREAS...AND UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE OOUTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT AND IN LINE WITH PAST
FEW RUNS OF THE MODEL SUITE. ONLY DIFFERENCE IN 00UTC RUNS IS NAM
IS A BIT FASTER WITH PROGRESSION OF WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEM...BUT
ITS BEEN THE FAST MODEL FOR SVRL RUNS...AND AT THIS TIME ITS
PROBABLY THE OUTLIER.
BY SAT MORNING THE 500HPA CUT OFF WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK...AND COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE LOW WILL
BE CENTERED JUST OFF BOSTON. 500HPA CUT OFF WILL TAKE ON A NEG
TILT SAT...AND ENHANCE COOL CONVEYOR BELT PCPN FM COASTAL
LOW...BACK INTO MOST OF THE FCA. WITH COASTAL LOW ALMOST
VERTICAL...12MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NYS...IT SHOULD BE A RAW
NOVEMBER-ESQ DAY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND A BRISK CHILLY
NORTH WIND. H850 TEMPS FALL TO -2 TO -4C OVER FCA...COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SNOW OVER HIGHEST TRRN. (YES ITS MAY 25TH IN NEW YORK WERE
TALKING ABOUT HERE). AT SFC HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE IN MID 40S TO
MID 50S...15-20 DEG BLO NRML. LOWS SAT NT WILL FALL TO MID 30S TO
LOW 40S. PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST ON EAST SIDE OF FCA AND
OVER HIR TRRN...DIMINISHING TWRD THE WEST. DURING SAT AND SAT NT
ANOTHER 0.30 TO 1.0 INCHES OF QPF IS FCST BY GFS...0.10 TO 0.5 BY
GEM...AND A TENTH TO AN INCH BY THE "FAST" NAM WHICH IS ALL EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER
THE GEM/ECMWF/GFS TAKE THE VERTICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY AND ONWARD INTO THE MARITIMES...IN LINE WITH
CURRENT FCST. PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH TO SCT -SHRA EAST...ISOLD -SHRA
WEST...TIED MAINLY TO LAST OF SHORT WVS SPIRALING AROUND 500HPA
CUT OFF...DIURNAL HEATING AND TRRN. CLOUDS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH BREAKS OF SUN WILL INCR ALONG W PERIPHERY OF
FCA...AND IN THE SOUTHEAST. MOST OF AREA HAS A CHANCE TO SEE
SUNSET SUN EVENING. WITH LESS PCPN...SOME SUN MAX TEMPS WILL
RECOVER TO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WITH SOME MID 60S SE ON SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE CUT OFF EXITS INTO LABRADOR...AND THE BEGINNINGS
OF THE NEXT MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE TAKE SHAPE AS A 500HPA RIDGE
BUILDS FM MISS VLY TO HUDSON BAY CANADA AND THEN STARTS BUILDING
EAST.
AT THE SFC LARGE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GRTLKS MONDAY...AND
ACROSS FCA MON NT. UNDER STRONG SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPS
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S WITH LOW 70S IN VLYS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALB.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS UNDER
THE SFC HIGH...AND LOWS IN 30S AND LOW 40S. THERE MAY BE FROST AND
FREEZE ISSUES PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIR TRRN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PATTERN CHANGE THAT SET UP MONDAY...BECOMES THE DOMINATE
REGIME DURING THE EFP. 500HPA RIDGE BUILDS FM GULF COAST TO JAMES
BAY...THEN SHIFTS TO EASTERN SEABOARD. 590DM CLOSED HIGH OVER MUCH
OF EAST FROM LATE WED INTO WEEKEND. THIS SIGNAL HAS BEEN THERE FOR
DAYS IN GFS...AND THERE`S MORE AGREEMENT BWTN GFS/GEM/12UTC ECMWF
AND ENSEMBLES IN DAYS 5-7 THAN IN THE SHORT TERM.
AT SFC COOLER BUT MODERATED CANADIAN HIGH HOLDS OVER RGN TUES
BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE. WAA BEGINS POURING OVER TOP OF 500HPA
RIDGE AS SFC WMFNT SURGES THROUGH FCA TUES NT AND WED WITH
-SHRA/TSTMS. THIS HAS ALL THE HALLMARKS OF MCS RIDGE ROLLERS.
BY WED EVENING FCA AND MUCH OF USA FROM ROCKIES TO THE SEABOARD IS
UNDER THE EASTERN RIDGE...AND BERMUDA HIGH. TEMPERATURES WHICH
STARTED THE WEEK WELL BLO NORMAL WILL SURGE TO 70S TUES...MID 70S
TO LOW 80S WED...THE 80S THURS AND TWRD 90 FRI.
WILL POPULATE WITH OVERNIGHT WPC GRIDS. ECMWF CLOSE ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME TO GFS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 06Z SATURDAY. WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY...IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE...WITH OCCASIONAL
FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR. AFTER 01Z-03Z...VCSH WITH
POTENTIAL SLOW IMPROVEMENTS TO CEILINGS INTO SOLID MVFR...BORDERING
ON LOW VFR. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO SHIFT A BIT EAST OF THE
TAF SITES BY THE EVENING...VISIBILITIES COULD IMPROVE TO VFR.
LIGHT WEST OT NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME
NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AT AROUND 10 KT. THERE COULD BE
SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 15 KT AND 20 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT REMAINING STEADY AROUND 10 KT THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-SAT...MVFR/IFR. -SHRA LIKELY. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SAT NGT-SUN...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SUN NGT-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO SUNDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE AND LINGER ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
INTO LATE SATURDAY BEFORE DRIFTING INTO THE MARITIMES. IT WILL
BRING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THE THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE EAST...AND LEAST
ACROSS THE WEST.
THIS RAINFALL WILL COME ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE PERIODS OF HEAVY/TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
THAT HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST TWO DAYS.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
000
FXUS61 KALY 240706
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
306 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY. A STORM WILL
DEVELOP...INTENSIFY...AND LINGER ON THIS FRONT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE STORM WILL DRAW MUCH COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AND BRING DAMP WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
MEMORIAL DAY AND DRIFT OVER OUR REGION INTO MIDWEEK...WITH FAIR
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LOW STILL IN PROGRESS OF CUTTING AND SHOWERY NATURE TO
PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE OF A STEADY RAIN...WITH SOME EMBEDDED
AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST
AND ADJUSTING THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...WITH JUST MINOR CHANGES TO RAIN CHANCES
AND TEMPERATURES. WILL MAKE MORE CHANGES TO TODAY AND TONIGHT ONCE
ALL NEW GUIDANCE IS IN. STILL LOOKS LIKE A RAINY DAY AND NIGHT WITH
MUCH COOLER WEATHER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE OOUTC GFS IS IN LINE WITH PAST FEW RUNS OF THE MODEL SUITE.
ONLY DIFFERENCE IN 00UTC RUNS IS NAM IS A BIT FASTER WITH PROGRESSION
OF WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEM...BUT ITS BEEN THE FAST MODEL FOR SVRL
RUNS...AND AT THIS TIME ITS PROBABLY THE OUTLIER.
BY SAT MORNING THE 500HPA CUT OFF WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK...AND COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE LOW WILL
BE CENTERED JUST OFF BOSTON. 500HPA CUT OFF WILL TAKE ON A NEG
TILT SAT...AND ENHANCE COOL CONVEYOR BELT PCPN FM COASTAL
LOW...BACK INTO MOST OF THE FCA. WITH COASTAL LOW ALMOST
VERTICAL...12MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NYS...IT SHOULD BE A RAW
NOVEMBER-ESQ DAY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND A BRISK CHILLY
NORTH WIND. H850 TEMPS FALL TO -2 TO -4C OVER FCA...COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SNOW OVER HIGHEST TRRN. (YES ITS MAY 25TH IN NEW YORK WERE
TALKING ABOUT HERE). AT SFC HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE IN MID 40S TO
MID 50S...15-20 DEG BLO NRML. LOWS SAT NT WILL FALL TO MID 30S TO
LOW 40S. PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST ON EAST SIDE OF FCA AND
OVER HIR TRRN...DIMINISHING TWRD THE WEST. DURING SAT AND SAT NT
ANOTHER 0.30 TO 1.0 INCHES OF QPF IS FCST BY GFS...0.10 TO 0.5 BY
GEM...AND A TENTH TO AN INCH BY THE "FAST" NAM WHICH IS ALL EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER
BOTH THE GEM AND GFS TAKE THE VERTICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO
THE GULF OF MAIN SUNDAY AND ONWARD INTO THE MARITIMES...IN LINE
WITH CURRENT FCST. PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH TO SCT -SHRA EAST...ISOLD
-SHRA WEST...TIED MAINLY TO LAST OF SHORT WVS SPIRALING AROUND
500HPA CUT OFF...DIURNAL HEATING AND TRRN. CLOUDS WILL LINGER MUCH
OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH BREAKS OF SUN WILL INCR ALONG W PERIPHERY OF
FCA...AND IN THE SOUTHEAST. MOST OF AREA HAS A CHANCE TO SEE
SUNSET SAT EVENING. WITH LESS PCPN...SOME SUN MAX TEMPS WILL
RECOVER TO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WITH SOME MID 60S SE ON SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE CUT OFF EXITS INTO LABRADOR...AND THE BEGINNINGS
OF THE NEXT MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE TAKE SHAPE AS A 500HPA RIDGE
BUILDS FM MISS VLY TO HUDSON BAY CANADA AND THEN STARTS BUILDING
EAST.
AT THE SFC LARGE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GRTLKS MONDAY...AND
ACROSS FCA MON NT. UNDER STRONG SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPS
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S WITH LOW 70S IN VLYS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALB.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS UNDER
THE SFC HIGH...AND LOWS IN 30S AND LOW 40S. THERE MAY BE FROST AND
FREEZE ISSUES PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIR TRRN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PATTERN CHANGE THAT SET UP MONDAY...BECOMES THE DOMINATE
REGIME DURING THE EFP. 500HPA RIDGE BUILDS FM GULF COAST TO JAMES
BAY...THEN SHIFTS TO EASTERN SEABOARD. 590DM CLOSED HIGH OVER MUCH
OF EAST FROM LATE WED INTO WEEKEND. THIS SIGNAL HAS BEEN THERE FOR
DAYS IN GFS...AND THERE`S MORE AGREEMENT BWTN GFS/GEM/12UTC ECMWF
AND ENSEMBLES IN DAYS 5-7 THAN IN THE SHORT TERM.
AT SFC COOLER BUT MODERATED CANADIAN HIGH HOLDS OVER RGN TUES
BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE. WAA BEGINS POURING OVER TOP OF 500HPA
RIDGE AS SFC WMFNT SURGES THROUGH FCA TUES NT AND WED WITH
-SHRA/TSTMS. THIS HAS ALL THE HALLMARKS OF MCS RIDGE ROLLERS.
BY WED EVENING FCA AND MUCH OF USA FROM ROCKIES TO THE SEABOARD IS
UNDER THE EASTERN RIDGE...AND BERMUDA HIGH. TEMPERATURES WHICH
STARTED THE WEEK WELL BLO NORMAL WILL SURGE TO 70S TUES...MID 70S
TO LOW 80S WED...THE 80S THURS AND TWRD 90 FRI.
WILL POPULATE WITH OVERNIGHT WPC GRIDS. MAY ADJUST IF NEEDED WHEN
ECMWF BCMS AVBL.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 06Z SATURDAY. WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY...IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE...WITH OCCASIONAL
FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR. AFTER 01Z-03Z...VCSH WITH
POTENTIAL SLOW IMPROVEMENTS TO CEILINGS INTO SOLID MVFR...BORDERING
ON LOW VFR. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO SHIFT A BIT EAST OF THE
TAF SITES BY THE EVENING...VISIBILITIES COULD IMPROVE TO VFR.
LIGHT WEST OT NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME
NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AT AROUND 10 KT. THERE COULD BE
SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 15 KT AND 20 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT REMAINING STEADY AROUND 10 KT THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-SAT...MVFR/IFR. -SHRA LIKELY. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SAT NGT-SUN...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SUN NGT-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO SUNDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE AND LINGER ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
INTO LATE SATURDAY BEFORE DRIFTING INTO THE MARITIMES. IT WILL
BRING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THE THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE EAST...AND LEAST
ACROSS THE WEST.
THIS RAINFALL WILL COME ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE PERIODS OF HEAVY/TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
THAT HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST TWO DAYS.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
000
FXUS61 KBTV 240541
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
141 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
GUSTY WINDS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS A CONCERN AS SOME STORMS
WILL MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. EXPECT MORE
RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A NOREASTER FORMS OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED AS WELL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 103 AM EDT FRIDAY...HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH CAUSED FLASH
FLOODING IS NOW DISSIPATING ACRS CENTRAL VT. DUAL POL RAINFALL
ESTIMATES HAVE DONE VERY WELL...WHEN COMPARING TO OBS...SHOWING A
3 TO 5 INCH PRINT FROM ESSEX CENTER/JERICHO TO UNDERHILL TO
CAMBRIDGE AREA. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL IN 1 TO 3 HOURS CAUSED
NUMEROUS ROAD WASHOUTS AND MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE. CHECK LATEST
BTVLSR FOR FURTHER INFO.
MINOR UPDATE TO FCST TO REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
CAPTURE CRNT TEMP/PRECIP TRENDS. SFC COLD FRNT IS ACRS THE CPV
ATTM...WITH A TRANSITION FROM A MOIST/UNSTABLE TO MUCH
COOLER/MOIST AIR MASS TAKING PLACE FROM NW TO SE. IN ADDITION...A
TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPMENT FROM M40S SLV TO M60S NEAR
VSF. THIS CRNT AND LLVL CAA WL HELP TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT...WITH GREATEST ADDITIONAL QPF ACRS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL RANGE BTWN 0.25 AND 0.50 ACRS
SOUTHERN VT...WITH 0.10 TO 0.20 ACRS THE DACKS/CPV AND NORTHERN
AREAS. GIVEN SEVERAL HYDRO WARNINGS IN EFFECT WL CONT FLASH FLOOD
WATCH ATTM...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FURTHER FLASH FLOODING AS
THUNDERSTORMS WITH 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES HAVE
DISSIPATED.
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME...AND WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT PRECIPITATION MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS. FLOODING ISSUES STILL
EXIST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT
WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS OCCURRED THIS EVENING. UPWARDS OF 3 INCHES
REPORTED IN SOME AREAS RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
ALSO...RAINS THIS EVENING COUPLED WITH COPIOUS RAINFALL OVER PAST
FEW DAYS HAS PROMPTED ISSUANCE OF FLOOD WARNING FOR BARTON RIVER
AT COVENTRY. WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED OVER NEXT FEW DAYS...
POTENTIAL FOR MORE RIVER FLOODING WILL LIKELY INCREASE RIGHT INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION...
LAPS SOUNDING SHOW SATURATED ATMOSPHERIC COLUMNS...TALL SKINNY
CAPE VALUES OF UP TO 1300 J/KG. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS RUNNING NEAR 4KM
AND PW VALUES NEAR 1.70". BEING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL JET ALL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE THREAT OF VERY
EFFICIENT WARM PROCESSES...1 TO 3" HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS...AND
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FAVOR TWO
SW-NE ORIENTATED AREAS, ONE IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ANOTHER
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND NE VT. THIS SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING ON
RADAR. SOME AREAS HAVE HAD 2 INCHES OF RAIN ALREADY THIS WEEK SO
CONTINUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOR MOST
OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
FALLING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT WITH THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
SLOWLY SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 454 PM EDT THURSDAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE FRONT
BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY AS
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH OVER 100M 12H HGT FALLS REACHING THE
DELMARVA AREA BY 00Z SAT THEN ROTATE NORTH TO CAPE COD BY 00Z SUNDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THEN WAITS FOR THE UPPER LOW TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED.
STRONG QG FORCING, WARM MOISTURE ADVECTION, AND STRONG LOW-MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS TO COMBINE TO BRING RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE 50S IN THE VALLEYS AND INTO THE
40S IN THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LOW CUTS OFF OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURE MOSTLY IN THE 40S BUT SOME UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE ALSO PUT A BIT OF WET SNOW AT THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS (ABOVE 2500 FT) ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT. IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT ANOTHER 0.75-1.50" OF STEADIER LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 454 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY ON SUNDAY...HOW FAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT OF A
QUESTION. LEANED TOWARD THE EMCWF WHICH IS NOT GREAT NEWS FOR THE
THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE AROUND SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE MARATHON IN BURLINGTON.
KEPT A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING ON SUNDAY, HIGHEST IN THE
MORNING, BUT THERE COULD BE PERIODS WITHOUT SHOWERS AS WELL.
RIGHT NOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S SUNDAY MORNING AND AND LOW
TO MID 50S IN THE AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE QUITE COLD FOR MAY WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
ON MONDAY THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE MOVING FAR ENOUGH AWAY
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY TO SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES MOVING BACK INTO
THE 60S.
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE TUE-THU WITH
SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING THE FORECAST BY
WED AND THU AS TEMPERATURE BECOME MORE SUMMER-LIKE WITH RETURNING
HUMIDITY AS FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH FORMING.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...EXPECT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS WELL AS LIGHT RAIN. THERE WILL ALSO
BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIFR CEILINGS AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA. THE WIND WILL BECOME NORTHWEST ALL AREAS
AT SPEEDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SFC
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE TAF
SITES THRU THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS SFC
LOW PRES TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. A SLOW CLEARING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...W/ VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 754 AM THURSDAY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8AM
FRIDAY FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD TO THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEY. WATCH FOR MULTIPLE STORMS TO TRACK OVER THE SAME
AREA AND COMBINED WITH RAINFALL RATES AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR...FLASH FLOODING MAY RESULT. THE THREAT WILL TRANSITION ON
FRIDAY FROM FLASH FLOODING TO POTENTIAL RIVER FLOODING AS MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE
THREAT OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS VERMONT. THIS SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ001>012-
016>019.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ028>031-
034-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV
000
FXUS61 KALY 240527
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
127 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY. A STORM WILL
DEVELOP...INTENSIFY...AND LINGER ON THIS FRONT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE STORM WILL DRAW MUCH COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AND BRING DAMP WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
MEMORIAL DAY AND DRIFT OVER OUR REGION INTO MIDWEEK...WITH FAIR
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LOW STILL IN PROGRESS OF CUTTING AND SHOWERY NATURE TO
PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE OF A STEADY RAIN...WITH SOME EMBEDDED
AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST
AND ADJUSTING THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...WITH JUST MINOR CHANGES TO RAIN CHANCES
AND TEMPERATURES. WILL MAKE MORE CHANGES TO TODAY AND TONIGHT ONCE
ALL NEW GUIDANCE IS IN. STILL LOOKS LIKE A RAINY DAY AND NIGHT WITH
MUCH COOLER WEATHER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE OOUTC GFS IS IN LINE WITH PAST FEW RUNS OF THE MODEL SUITE.
ONLY DIFFERENCE IN 00UTC RUNS IS NAM IS A BIT FASTER WITH PROGRESSION
OF WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEM...BUT ITS BEEN THE FAST MODEL FOR SVRL
RUNS...AND AT THIS TIME ITS PROBABLY THE OUTLIER.
BY SAT MORNING THE 500HPA CUT OFF WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK...AND COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE LOW WILL
BE CENTERED JUST OFF BOSTON. 500HPA CUT OFF WILL TAKE ON A NEG
TILT SAT...AND ENHANCE COOL CONVEYOR BELT PCPN FM COASTAL
LOW...BACK INTO MOST OF THE FCA. WITH COASTAL LOW ALMOST
VERTICAL...12MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NYS...IT SHOULD BE A RAW
NOVEMBER-ESQ DAY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND A BRISK CHILLY
NORTH WIND. H850 TEMPS FALL TO -2 TO -4C OVER FCA...COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SNOW OVER HIGHEST TRRN. (YES ITS MAY 25TH IN NEW YORK WERE
TALKING ABOUT HERE). AT SFC HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE IN MID 40S TO
MID 50S...15-20 DEG BLO NRML. LOWS SAT NT WILL FALL TO MID 30S TO
LOW 40S. PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST ON EAST SIDE OF FCA AND
OVER HIR TRRN...DIMISHING TWRD THE WEST. DURING SAT AND SAT NT
ANOTHER 0.30 TO 1.0 INCHES OF QPF IS FCST BY GFS...0.10 TO 0.5 BY
GEM...AND A TENTH TO AN INCH BY THE "FAST" NAM WHICH IS ALL EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER
BOTH THE GEM AND GFS TAKE THE VERTICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO
THE GULF OF MAIN SUNDAY AND ONWARD INTO THE MARITIMES...IN LINE
WITH CURRENT FCST. PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH TO SCT -SHRA EAST...ISOLD
-SHRA WEST...TIED MAINLY TO LAST OF SHORT WVS SPIRALING AROUND
500HPA CUT OFF...DIURNAL HEATING AND TRRN. CLOUDS WILL LINGER MUCH
OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH BREAKS OF SUN WILL INCR ALONG W PERIPHERY OF
FCA...AND IN THE SOUTHEAST. MOST OF AREA HAS A CHANCE TO SEE
SUNSET SAT EVENING. WITH LESS PCPN...SOME SUN MAX TEMPS WILL
RECOVER TO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WITH SOME MID 60S SE ON SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE CUT OFF EXITS INTO LABRADOR...AND THE BEGINNINGS
OF THE NEXT MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE TAKE SHAPE AS A 500HPA RIDGE
BUILDS FM MISS VLY TO HUDSON BAY CANADA AND THEN STARTS BUILDING
EAST.
AT THE SFC LARGE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GRTLKS MONDAY...AND
ACROSS FCA MON NT. UNDER STRONG SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPS
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S WITH LOW 70S IN VLYS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALB.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS UNDER
THE SFC HIGH...AND LOWS IN 30S AND LOW 40S. THERE MAY BE FROST AND
FREEZE ISSUES PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIR TRRN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT STARTING TO BUILD IN FAIR
AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 40 TO 50. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S.
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. IT WILL GET EVEN WARMER WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOW OR MID 50S...AND THE HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 06Z SATURDAY. WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY...IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE...WITH OCCASIONAL
FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR. AFTER 01Z-03Z...VCSH WITH
POTENTIAL SLOW IMPROVEMENTS TO CEILINGS INTO SOLID MVFR...BORDERING
ON LOW VFR. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO SHIFT A BIT EAST OF THE
TAF SITES BY THE EVENING...VISIBILITIES COULD IMPROVE TO VFR.
LIGHT WEST OT NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME
NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AT AROUND 10 KT. THERE COULD BE
SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 15 KT AND 20 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT REMAINING STEADY AROUND 10 KT THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-SAT...MVFR/IFR. -SHRA LIKELY. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SAT NGT-SUN...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SUN NGT-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO SUNDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS...MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ALONG WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS ON FRIDAY. AFTER THAT THE
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROF TO OUR WEST IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALSO
OCCURRING ALONG THE OLD BOUNDARY. THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOWS
WILL THEN SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINS AND TRAINING OF CONVECTIVE
CELLS. AFTER THAT EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF POSSIBLE HEAVY SYNOPTIC
RAINFALL FROM THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS.
ALL OF THIS RAINFALL WILL COME ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE PERIODS OF HEAVY/TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST TWO DAYS.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...AND
ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD THREAT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM
000
FXUS61 KBTV 240518
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
118 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
GUSTY WINDS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS A CONCERN AS SOME STORMS
WILL MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. EXPECT MORE
RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A NOREASTER FORMS OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED AS WELL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 103 AM EDT FRIDAY...HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH CAUSED FLASH
FLOODING IS NOW DISSIPATING ACRS CENTRAL VT. DUAL POL RAINFALL
ESTIMATES HAVE DONE VERY WELL...WHEN COMPARING TO OBS...SHOWING A
3 TO 5 INCH PRINT FROM ESSEX CENTER/JERICHO TO UNDERHILL TO
CAMBRIDGE AREA. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL IN 1 TO 3 HOURS CAUSED
NUMEROUS ROAD WASHOUTS AND MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE. CHECK LATEST
BTVLSR FOR FURTHER INFO.
MINOR UPDATE TO FCST TO REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
CAPTURE CRNT TEMP/PRECIP TRENDS. SFC COLD FRNT IS ACRS THE CPV
ATTM...WITH A TRANSITION FROM A MOIST/UNSTABLE TO MUCH
COOLER/MOIST AIRMASS TAKING PLACE FROM NW TO SE. IN ADDITION...A
TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPMENT FROM M40S SLV TO M60S NEAR
VSF. THIS CRNT AND LLVL CAA WL HELP TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT...WITH GREATEST ADDITIONAL QPF ACRS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL RANGE BTWN 0.25 AND 0.50 ACRS
SOUTHERN VT...WITH 0.10 TO 0.20 ACRS THE DACKS/CPV AND NORTHERN
AREAS. GIVEN SEVERAL HYDRO WARNINGS IN EFFECT WL CONT FLASH FLOOD
WATCH ATTM...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FURTHER FLASH FLODDING AS
THUNDERSTORMS WITH 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES HAVE
DISSIPATED.
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME...AND WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT PRECIPITATION MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS. FLOODING ISSUES STILL
EXIST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT
WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS OCCURRED THIS EVENING. UPWARDS OF 3 INCHES
REPORTED IN SOME AREAS RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
ALSO...RAINS THIS EVENING COUPLED WITH COPIOUS RAINFALL OVER PAST
FEW DAYS HAS PROMPTED ISSUANCE OF FLOOD WARNING FOR BARTON RIVER
AT COVENTRY. WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED OVER NEXT FEW DAYS...
POTENTIAL FOR MORE RIVER FLOODING WILL LIKELY INCREASE RIGHT INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION...
LAPS SOUNDING SHOW SATURATED ATMOSPHERIC COLUMNS...TALL SKINNY
CAPE VALUES OF UP TO 1300 J/KG. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS RUNNING NEAR 4KM
AND PW VALUES NEAR 1.70". BEING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL JET ALL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE THREAT OF VERY
EFFICIENT WARM PROCESSES...1 TO 3" HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS...AND
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FAVOR TWO
SW-NE ORIENTATED AREAS, ONE IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ANOTHER
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND NE VT. THIS SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING ON
RADAR. SOME AREAS HAVE HAD 2 INCHES OF RAIN ALREADY THIS WEEK SO
CONTINUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOR MOST
OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
FALLING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT WITH THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
SLOWLY SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 454 PM EDT THURSDAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE FRONT
BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY AS
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH OVER 100M 12H HGT FALLS REACHING THE
DELMARVA AREA BY 00Z SAT THEN ROTATE NORTH TO CAPE COD BY 00Z SUNDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THEN WAITS FOR THE UPPER LOW TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED.
STRONG QG FORCING, WARM MOISTURE ADVECTION, AND STRONG LOW-MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS TO COMBINE TO BRING RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE 50S IN THE VALLEYS AND INTO THE
40S IN THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LOW CUTS OFF OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURE MOSTLY IN THE 40S BUT SOME UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE ALSO PUT A BIT OF WET SNOW AT THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS (ABOVE 2500 FT) ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT. IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT ANOTHER 0.75-1.50" OF STEADIER LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 454 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY ON SUNDAY...HOW FAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT OF A
QUESTION. LEANED TOWARD THE EMCWF WHICH IS NOT GREAT NEWS FOR THE
THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE AROUND SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE MARATHON IN BURLINGTON.
KEPT A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING ON SUNDAY, HIGHEST IN THE
MORNING, BUT THERE COULD BE PERIODS WITHOUT SHOWERS AS WELL.
RIGHT NOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S SUNDAY MORNING AND AND LOW
TO MID 50S IN THE AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE QUITE COLD FOR MAY WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
ON MONDAY THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE MOVING FAR ENOUGH AWAY
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY TO SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES MOVING BACK INTO
THE 60S.
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE TUE-THU WITH
SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING THE FORECAST BY
WED AND THU AS TEMPERATURE BECOME MORE SUMMER-LIKE WITH RETURNING
HUMIDITY AS FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH FORMING.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
WHILE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THE THREAT OF STORMS
WILL DECREASE AS COLD FRONT MOVES GRADUALLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO PREVAILING
M,VFR WITH AREAS OF IFR OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SHIFTING WINDS THIS
EVENING DUE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SFC
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE TAF
SITES THRU THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS SFC
LOW PRES TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. A SLOW CLRING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...W/ VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 754 AM THURSDAY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8AM
FRIDAY FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD TO THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEY. WATCH FOR MULTIPLE STORMS TO TRACK OVER THE SAME
AREA AND COMBINED WITH RAINFALL RATES AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR...FLASH FLOODING MAY RESULT. THE THREAT WILL TRANSITION ON
FRIDAY FROM FLASH FLOODING TO POTENTIAL RIVER FLOODING AS MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE
THREAT OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS VERMONT. THIS SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.MARINE...
A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR WITH ANY POTENTIAL STORMS...ALONG
WITH STRONG WIND/WAVE OCCURRENCE IN VICINITY OF ANY THUNDER.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ001>012-
016>019.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ028>031-
034-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...RJS
HYDROLOGY...
MARINE...
000
FXUS61 KALY 240502
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
102 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY. A STORM WILL
DEVELOP...INTENSIFY...AND LINGER ON THIS FRONT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE STORM WILL DRAW MUCH COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AND BRING DAMP WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
MEMORIAL DAY AND DRIFT OVER OUR REGION INTO MIDWEEK...WITH FAIR
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LOW STILL IN PROGRESS OF CUTTING AND SHOWERY NATURE TO
PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE OF A STEADY RAIN...WITH SOME EMBEDDED
AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST
AND ADJUSTING THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...WITH JUST MINOR CHANGES TO RAIN CHANCES
AND TEMPERATURES. WILL MAKE MORE CHANGES TO TODAY AND TONIGHT ONCE
ALL NEW GUIDANCE IS IN. STILL LOOKS LIKE A RAINY DAY AND NIGHT WITH
MUCH COOLER WEATHER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE OOUTC GFS IS IN LINE WITH PAST FEW RUNS OF THE MODEL SUITE.
ONLY DIFFERENCE IN 00UTC RUNS IS NAM IS A BIT FASTER WITH PROGRESSION
OF WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEM...BUT ITS BEEN THE FAST MODEL FOR SVRL
RUNS...AND AT THIS TIME ITS PROBABLY THE OUTLIER.
BY SAT MORNING THE 500HPA CUT OFF WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK...AND COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE LOW WILL
BE CENTERED JUST OFF BOSTON. 500HPA CUT OFF WILL TAKE ON A NEG
TILT SAT...AND ENHANCE COOL CONVEYOR BELT PCPN FM COASTAL
LOW...BACK INTO MOST OF THE FCA. WITH COASTAL LOW ALMOST
VERTICAL...12MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NYS...IT SHOULD BE A RAW
NOVEMBER-ESQ DAY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND A BRISK CHILLY
NORTH WIND. H850 TEMPS FALL TO -2 TO -4C OVER FCA...COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SNOW OVER HIGHEST TRRN. (YES ITS MAY 25TH IN NEW YORK WERE
TALKING ABOUT HERE). AT SFC HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE IN MID 40S TO
MID 50S...15-20 DEG BLO NRML. LOWS SAT NT WILL FALL TO MID 30S TO
LOW 40S. PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST ON EAST SIDE OF FCA AND
OVER HIR TRRN...DIMISHING TWRD THE WEST. DURING SAT AND SAT NT
ANOTHER 0.30 TO 1.0 INCHES OF QPF IS FCST BY GFS...0.10 TO 0.5 BY
GEM...AND A TENTH TO AN INCH BY THE "FAST" NAM WHICH IS ALL EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER
BOTH THE GEM AND GFS TAKE THE VERTICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO
THE GULF OF MAIN SUNDAY AND ONWARD INTO THE MARITIMES...IN LINE
WITH CURRENT FCST. PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH TO SCT -SHRA EAST...ISOLD
-SHRA WEST...TIED MAINLY TO LAST OF SHORT WVS SPIRALING AROUND
500HPA CUT OFF...DIURNAL HEATING AND TRRN. CLOUDS WILL LINGER MUCH
OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH BREAKS OF SUN WILL INCR ALONG W PERIPHERY OF
FCA...AND IN THE SOUTHEAST. MOST OF AREA HAS A CHANCE TO SEE
SUNSET SAT EVENING. WITH LESS PCPN...SOME SUN MAX TEMPS WILL
RECOVER TO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WITH SOME MID 60S SE ON SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE CUT OFF EXITS INTO LABRADOR...AND THE BEGINNINGS
OF THE NEXT MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE TAKE SHAPE AS A 500HPA RIDGE
BUILDS FM MISS VLY TO HUDSON BAY CANADA AND THEN STARTS BUILDING
EAST.
AT THE SFC LARGE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GRTLKS MONDAY...AND
ACROSS FCA MON NT. UNDER STRONG SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPS
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S WITH LOW 70S IN VLYS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALB.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS UNDER
THE SFC HIGH...AND LOWS IN 30S AND LOW 40S. THERE MAY BE FROST AND
FREEZE ISSUES PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIR TRRN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT STARTING TO BUILD IN FAIR
AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 40 TO 50. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S.
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. IT WILL GET EVEN WARMER WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOW OR MID 50S...AND THE HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 00Z SATURDAY. KPOU/KPSF
TERMINALS REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ONE BATCH OF
SHOWERS TO THE EAST...WHILE KALB/KGFL WILL SEE SHOWERS WITH SOME
EMBEDDED DOWNPOURS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
THIS EVENING. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR...WITH MAINLY
MVFR/IFR EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUING.
THEREAFTER A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS...WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM
SOUTHERLY TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION. FIRST AT KGFL LATER THIS
EVENING...THEN KALB TO KPSF OVERNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY KPOU
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EVEN MUCH OF THE MORNING DUE TO MAINLY
LOW CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT WITH OVC SKIES AND SHOWERS
CONTINUING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-SAT...MVFR/IFR. -SHRA LIKELY. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SAT NGT-SUN...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SUN NGT-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO SUNDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS...MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ALONG WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS ON FRIDAY. AFTER THAT THE
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROF TO OUR WEST IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALSO
OCCURRING ALONG THE OLD BOUNDARY. THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOWS
WILL THEN SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINS AND TRAINING OF CONVECTIVE
CELLS. AFTER THAT EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF POSSIBLE HEAVY SYNOPTIC
RAINFALL FROM THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS.
ALL OF THIS RAINFALL WILL COME ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE PERIODS OF HEAVY/TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST TWO DAYS.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...AND
ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD THREAT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM
000
FXUS61 KBTV 240252
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1052 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
GUSTY WINDS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS A CONCERN AS SOME STORMS
WILL MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. EXPECT MORE
RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A NOREASTER FORMS OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED AS WELL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1034 PM EDT THURSDAY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST WITH
LATEST UPDATE...MAINLY TO KEEP FORECAST CURRENT WITH SOME
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY WEATHER PARAMETERS FOR THIS EVENING.
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ADIRONDACKS AT THIS TIME...AND WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY INTO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT PRECIPITATION MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS. FLOODING ISSUES STILL
EXIST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT
WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS OCCURRED THIS EVENING. UPWARDS OF 3 INCHES
REPORTED IN SOME AREAS RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
ALSO...RAINS THIS EVENING COUPLED WITH COPIOUS RAINFALL OVER PAST
FEW DAYS HAS PROMPTED ISSUANCE OF FLOOD WARNING FOR BARTON RIVER
AT COVENTRY. WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED OVER NEXT FEW DAYS...
POTENTIAL FOR MORE RIVER FLOODING WILL LIKELY INCREASE RIGHT INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION...
LAPS SOUNDING SHOW SATURATED ATMOSPHERIC COLUMNS...TALL SKINNY
CAPE VALUES OF UP TO 1300 J/KG. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS RUNNING NEAR 4KM
AND PW VALUES NEAR 1.70". BEING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL JET ALL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE THREAT OF VERY
EFFICIENT WARM PROCESSES...1 TO 3" HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS...AND
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FAVOR TWO
SW-NE ORIENTATED AREAS, ONE IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ANOTHER
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND NE VT. THIS SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING ON
RADAR. SOME AREAS HAVE HAD 2 INCHES OF RAIN ALREADY THIS WEEK SO
CONTINUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOR MOST
OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
FALLING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT WITH THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
SLOWLY SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 454 PM EDT THURSDAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE FRONT
BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY AS
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH OVER 100M 12H HGT FALLS REACHING THE
DELMARVA AREA BY 00Z SAT THEN ROTATE NORTH TO CAPE COD BY 00Z SUNDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THEN WAITS FOR THE UPPER LOW TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED.
STRONG QG FORCING, WARM MOISTURE ADVECTION, AND STRONG LOW-MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS TO COMBINE TO BRING RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE 50S IN THE VALLEYS AND INTO THE
40S IN THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LOW CUTS OFF OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURE MOSTLY IN THE 40S BUT SOME UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE ALSO PUT A BIT OF WET SNOW AT THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS (ABOVE 2500 FT) ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT. IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT ANOTHER 0.75-1.50" OF STEADIER LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 454 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY ON SUNDAY...HOW FAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT OF A
QUESTION. LEANED TOWARD THE EMCWF WHICH IS NOT GREAT NEWS FOR THE
THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE AROUND SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE MARATHON IN BURLINGTON.
KEPT A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING ON SUNDAY, HIGHEST IN THE
MORNING, BUT THERE COULD BE PERIODS WITHOUT SHOWERS AS WELL.
RIGHT NOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S SUNDAY MORNING AND AND LOW
TO MID 50S IN THE AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE QUITE COLD FOR MAY WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
ON MONDAY THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE MOVING FAR ENOUGH AWAY
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY TO SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES MOVING BACK INTO
THE 60S.
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE TUE-THU WITH
SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING THE FORECAST BY
WED AND THU AS TEMPERATURE BECOME MORE SUMMER-LIKE WITH RETURNING
HUMIDITY AS FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH FORMING.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
WHILE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THE THREAT OF STORMS
WILL DECREASE AS COLD FRONT MOVES GRADUALLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO PREVAILING
M,VFR WITH AREAS OF IFR OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SHIFTING WINDS THIS
EVENING DUE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SFC
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE TAF
SITES THRU THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS SFC
LOW PRES TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. A SLOW CLRING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...W/ VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 754 AM THURSDAY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8AM
FRIDAY FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD TO THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEY. WATCH FOR MULTIPLE STORMS TO TRACK OVER THE SAME
AREA AND COMBINED WITH RAINFALL RATES AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR...FLASH FLOODING MAY RESULT. THE THREAT WILL TRANSITION ON
FRIDAY FROM FLASH FLOODING TO POTENTIAL RIVER FLOODING AS MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE
THREAT OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS VERMONT. THIS SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.MARINE...
A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR WITH ANY POTENTIAL STORMS...ALONG
WITH STRONG WIND/WAVE OCCURRENCE IN VICINITY OF ANY THUNDER.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028>031-034-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...RJS
HYDROLOGY...
MARINE...
000
FXUS61 KALY 240252
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1052 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...THEN STALL ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP...INTENSIFY...AND LINGER ON THIS FRONT NEAR
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MEMORIAL DAY AND DRIFT
OVER OUR REGION INTO MIDWEEK...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EVENTUALLY RETURNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1052 PM EDT...BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH DOWNPOURS CONTINUE LATE
THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
COVERAGE OF LIGHTNING HAS DECREASED UPSTREAM...BUT STILL
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS EMBEDDED WITH A FEW STRIKES ACROSS NORTHEAST
PA. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. RAINFALL RATES WILL STILL BE QUITE HIGH WITHIN THE MORE
INTENSE CONVECTIVE CELLS...WITH PWATS STILL RUNNING HIGH AROUND
1.4 INCHES FROM THE 00Z KALB SOUNDING. ONE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
WAS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING INTO CENTRAL PA/NY...WHILE
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS MEANS SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS POSITIONED FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH THE GREATER THREAT FOR AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY
RAINFALL THE PAST FEW DAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE CONVECTIVE RAINFALL TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A
SYNOPTIC WIDESPREAD SHOWER EVENT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTOFFS OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON FRIDAY AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG
THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST. AS THESE LOWS DRIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEAST...THEY WILL KEEP ON AND OFF RAIN/SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD HAVE FORECAST LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE WEST.
THE COMBINATION OF THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS/RAIN AND THE COLD POOL
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL PERIOD OF WEATHER. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THEIR STARTING POINT IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. HIGHS
SATURDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
ON SUNDAY THE UPPER/SFC LOWS SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE
REGION TO PRODUCE ONLY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAY BE DRY OR ONLY HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE ECMWF IS
THE MOST PESSIMISTIC WITH PCPN LINGERING INTO MONDAY...BUT HAVE
FORECAST CLOSER TO THE OTHER MODELS. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER WITH HIGHS BETWEEN 50 AND 60...WHICH IS STILL 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT STARTING TO BUILD IN. HAVE
FORECAST DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45.
HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
40 TO 50. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S.
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. IT WILL GET EVEN WARMER WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOW OR MID 50S...AND THE HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 00Z SATURDAY. KPOU/KPSF
TERMINALS REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ONE BATCH OF
SHOWERS TO THE EAST...WHILE KALB/KGFL WILL SEE SHOWERS WITH SOME
EMBEDDED DOWNPOURS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
THIS EVENING. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR...WITH MAINLY
MVFR/IFR EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUING.
THEREAFTER A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS...WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM
SOUTHERLY TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION. FIRST AT KGFL LATER THIS
EVENING...THEN KALB TO KPSF OVERNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY KPOU
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EVEN MUCH OF THE MORNING DUE TO MAINLY
LOW CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT WITH OVC SKIES AND SHOWERS
CONTINUING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-SAT...MVFR/IFR. -SHRA LIKELY. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SAT NGT-SUN...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SUN NGT-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO SUNDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS...MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ALONG WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS ON FRIDAY. AFTER THAT THE
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROF TO OUR WEST IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALSO
OCCURRING ALONG THE OLD BOUNDARY. THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOWS
WILL THEN SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINS AND TRAINING OF CONVECTIVE
CELLS. AFTER THAT EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF POSSIBLE HEAVY SYNOPTIC
RAINFALL FROM THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS.
ALL OF THIS RAINFALL WILL COME ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE PERIODS OF HEAVY/TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST TWO DAYS.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...AND
ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD THREAT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/JPV
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM
000
FXUS61 KBTV 240016
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
816 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
GUSTY WINDS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS A CONCERN AS SOME STORMS
WILL MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. EXPECT MORE
RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A NOREASTER FORMS OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED AS WELL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 754 PM EDT THURSDAY...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE TEMPS ARE NOW FALLING THROUGH THE 50S. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY GRADUALLY SOUTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS REST OF AREA IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN
THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS...THUS FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS
VERMONT. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS TO REFLECT
LATEST CONDITIONS...BUT OVERALL FORECAST FOR TONIGHT REMAINS IN
GOOD SHAPE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LAPS SOUNDING SHOW SATURATED ATMOSPHERIC COLUMNS...TALL SKINNY
CAPE VALUES OF UP TO 1300 J/KG. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS RUNNING NEAR 4KM
AND PW VALUES NEAR 1.70". BEING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL JET ALL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE THREAT OF VERY
EFFICIENT WARM PROCESSES...1 TO 3" HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS...AND
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FAVOR TWO
SW-NE ORIENTATED AREAS, ONE IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ANOTHER
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND NE VT. THIS SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING ON
RADAR. SOME AREAS HAVE HAD 2 INCHES OF RAIN ALREADY THIS WEEK SO
CONTINUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOR MOST
OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
FALLING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT WITH THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
SLOWLY SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 454 PM EDT THURSDAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE FRONT
BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY AS
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH OVER 100M 12H HGT FALLS REACHING THE
DELMARVA AREA BY 00Z SAT THEN ROTATE NORTH TO CAPE COD BY 00Z SUNDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THEN WAITS FOR THE UPPER LOW TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED.
STRONG QG FORCING, WARM MOISTURE ADVECTION, AND STRONG LOW-MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS TO COMBINE TO BRING RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE 50S IN THE VALLEYS AND INTO THE
40S IN THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LOW CUTS OFF OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURE MOSTLY IN THE 40S BUT SOME UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE ALSO PUT A BIT OF WET SNOW AT THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS (ABOVE 2500 FT) ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT. IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT ANOTHER 0.75-1.50" OF STEADIER LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 454 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY ON SUNDAY...HOW FAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT OF A
QUESTION. LEANED TOWARD THE EMCWF WHICH IS NOT GREAT NEWS FOR THE
THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE AROUND SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE MARATHON IN BURLINGTON.
KEPT A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING ON SUNDAY, HIGHEST IN THE
MORNING, BUT THERE COULD BE PERIODS WITHOUT SHOWERS AS WELL.
RIGHT NOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S SUNDAY MORNING AND AND LOW
TO MID 50S IN THE AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE QUITE COLD FOR MAY WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
ON MONDAY THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE MOVING FAR ENOUGH AWAY
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY TO SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES MOVING BACK INTO
THE 60S.
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE TUE-THU WITH
SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING THE FORECAST BY
WED AND THU AS TEMPERATURE BECOME MORE SUMMER-LIKE WITH RETURNING
HUMIDITY AS FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH FORMING.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
WHILE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THE THREAT OF STORMS
WILL DECREASE AS COLD FRONT MOVES GRADUALLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO PREVAILING
M,VFR WITH AREAS OF IFR OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SHIFTING WINDS THIS
EVENING DUE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SFC
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE TAF
SITES THRU THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS SFC
LOW PRES TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. A SLOW CLRING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...W/ VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 754 AM THURSDAY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8AM
FRIDAY FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD TO THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEY. WATCH FOR MULTIPLE STORMS TO TRACK OVER THE SAME
AREA AND COMBINED WITH RAINFALL RATES AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR...FLASH FLOODING MAY RESULT. THE THREAT WILL TRANSITION ON
FRIDAY FROM FLASH FLOODING TO POTENTIAL RIVER FLOODING AS MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE
THREAT OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS VERMONT. THIS SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.MARINE...
A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR WITH ANY POTENTIAL STORMS...ALONG
WITH STRONG WIND/WAVE OCCURRENCE IN VICINITY OF ANY THUNDER.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR VTZ001>012-
016>019.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NYZ028>031-034-
035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...RJS
HYDROLOGY...
MARINE...
000
FXUS61 KALY 232340
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
740 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THEN STALL ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP...INTENSIFY...AND
LINGER ON THIS FRONT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
MEMORIAL DAY AND DRIFT OVER OUR REGION INTO MIDWEEK...WITH FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER EVENTUALLY RETURNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT...BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH DOWNPOURS CONTINUE TO
SURGE NORTHWARD INTO A LIMITED AREA OF SOUTHEAST DUTCHESS AND MUCH
OF LITCHFIELD CT...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY NOTED UPSTREAM ON KOKX
RADAR. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS DESPITE LACK OF REPORTS TO THIS POINT. OTHERWISE...A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH DOWNPOURS
CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY...ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO WANE THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE BEST CAPE IS LOCATED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WHICH IS WHERE THE MOST ROBUST
CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR.
BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION CATEGORICAL POPS AND HEAVY RAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. THE REAL SURFACE COLD FRONT IS POSITIONED FROM THE
ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE CONVECTIVE RAINFALL TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A
SYNOPTIC WIDESPREAD SHOWER EVENT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTOFFS OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON FRIDAY AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG
THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST. AS THESE LOWS DRIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEAST...THEY WILL KEEP ON AND OFF RAIN/SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD HAVE FORECAST LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE WEST.
THE COMBINATION OF THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS/RAIN AND THE COLD POOL
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL PERIOD OF WEATHER. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THEIR STARTING POINT IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. HIGHS
SATURDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
ON SUNDAY THE UPPER/SFC LOWS SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE
REGION TO PRODUCE ONLY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAY BE DRY OR ONLY HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE ECMWF IS
THE MOST PESSIMISTIC WITH PCPN LINGERING INTO MONDAY...BUT HAVE
FORECAST CLOSER TO THE OTHER MODELS. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER WITH HIGHS BETWEEN 50 AND 60...WHICH IS STILL 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT STARTING TO BUILD IN. HAVE
FORECAST DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45.
HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
40 TO 50. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S.
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. IT WILL GET EVEN WARMER WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOW OR MID 50S...AND THE HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 00Z SATURDAY. KPOU/KPSF
TERMINALS REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ONE BATCH OF
SHOWERS TO THE EAST...WHILE KALB/KGFL WILL SEE SHOWERS WITH SOME
EMBEDDED DOWNPOURS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
THIS EVENING. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR...WITH MAINLY
MVFR/IFR EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUING.
THEREAFTER A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS...WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM
SOUTHERLY TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION. FIRST AT KGFL LATER THIS
EVENING...THEN KALB TO KPSF OVERNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY KPOU
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EVEN MUCH OF THE MORNING DUE TO MAINLY
LOW CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT WITH OVC SKIES AND SHOWERS
CONTINUING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-SAT...MVFR/IFR. -SHRA LIKELY. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SAT NGT-SUN...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SUN NGT-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO SUNDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS...MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ALONG WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS ON FRIDAY. AFTER THAT THE
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROF TO OUR WEST IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALSO
OCCURRING ALONG THE OLD BOUNDARY. THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOWS
WILL THEN SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINS AND TRAINING OF CONVECTIVE
CELLS. AFTER THAT EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF POSSIBLE HEAVY SYNOPTIC
RAINFALL FROM THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS.
ALL OF THIS RAINFALL WILL COME ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE PERIODS OF HEAVY/TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST TWO DAYS.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...AND
ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD THREAT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/JPV
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM
000
FXUS61 KALY 232134
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
535 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...THEN STALL ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE...INTENSIFY...AND LINGER ON THIS FRONT NEAR
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MEMORIAL DAY AND DRIFT OVER OUR REGION
INTO MIDWEEK...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 PM...THREE BANDS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS NOTED ON RADAR. THE
FIRST TWO ARE FROM ALANY SOUTH AND EAST...AND ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF
MERGER. RAINFALL WITH THESE BANDS IS NOT AS INTENSE AS EARLIER IN
THE DAY...BUT THERE STILL EXIST SOME ISOLATED CELLS WITH TORRENTIAL
RAIN...AND THERE STILL IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR TRAINING ECHOES. THE
OTHER BAND IS NOW ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TONIGHT SINCE
THESE THREE BANDS WILL EVENTUALLY PRODUCE RAINFALL IN ALL PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THORUGH 12Z FRIDAY.
THE SEVERE TSTM THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHED AT THIS POINT SINCE
NONE OF THE CELLS IN THESE BANDS HAS PRODUCED ANY SEVERE WEATHER.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE CONVECTIVE RAINFALL TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A
SYNOPTIC WIDESPREAD SHOWER EVENT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTOFFS OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON FRIDAY AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG
THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST. AS THESE LOWS DRIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEAST...THEY WILL KEEP ON AND OFF RAIN/SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD HAVE FORECAST LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE WEST.
THE COMBINATION OF THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS/RAIN AND THE COLD POOL
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL PERIOD OF WEATHER. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THEIR STARTING POINT IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. HIGHS
SATURDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
ON SUNDAY THE UPPER/SFC LOWS SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE
REGION TO PRODUCE ONLY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAY BE DRY OR ONLY HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE ECMWF IS
THE MOST PESSIMISTIC WITH PCPN LINGERING INTO MONDAY...BUT HAVE
FORECAST CLOSER TO THE OTHER MODELS. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER WITH HIGHS BETWEEN 50 AND 60...WHICH IS STILL 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELWO NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT STARTING TO BUILD IN. HAVE
FORECAST DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45.
HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
40 TO 50. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S.
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. IT WILL GET EVEN WARMER WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOW OR MID 50S...AND THE HIGHS THURSDAY IN THWE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT MVFR-IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON IN SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT SWITCHES SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND TO NORTHERLY SOMETIME
AROUND DAYBREAK UPON ITS PASSAGE THROUGH THE AIRPORTS. LOW PRESSURE
RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. NO SHEAR ISSUES.
OUTLOOK...
FRI PM-SAT...MAINLY VFR. -SHRA LIKELY.
SAT NGT-SUN...VFR...CHC -SHRA.
SUN NGT-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...WET FLAG DAY FOR FRIDAY...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO SUNDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS...MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ALONG WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS ON FRIDAY. AFTER THAT THE
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROF TO OUR WEST IS FORECAST TO CUTOFF ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENTALSO OCCURRING
ALONG THE OLD BOUNDARY. THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOWS WILL THEN
SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINS AND TRAINING OF CONVECTIVE
CELLS. AFTER THAT EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF POSSIBLE HEAVY SYNOPTIC
RAINFALL FROM THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS.
ALL OF THIS RAINFALL WILL COME ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE PERIODS OF HEAVY/TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST TWO DAYS.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...AND
ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD THREAT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...ELH
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM
000
FXUS61 KBTV 232054
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
454 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
GUSTY WINDS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS A CONCERN AS SOME STORMS
WILL MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVE
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. EXPECT MORE
RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A NOREASTER FORMS OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED AS WELL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 454 PM EDT THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING EXCEPT HAVE TRIED TO SHOW MORE COOLING TO
TEMPERATURES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT PUSHING TOWARD KMSS WHERE TEMPS FALL QUICKLY BACK INTO THE
50S AND 40S NOT THAT FAR AWAY.
LAPS SOUNDING SHOW SATURATED ATMOSPHERIC COLUMNS...TALL SKINNY
CAPE VALUES OF UP TO 1300 J/KG. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS RUNNING NEAR 4KM
AND PW VALUES NEAR 1.70". BEING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL JET ALL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE THREAT OF VERY
EFFICIENT WARM PROCESSES...1 TO 3" HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS...AND
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FAVOR TWO
SW-NE ORIENTATED AREAS, ONE IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ANOTHER
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND NE VT. THIS SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING ON
RADAR. SOME AREAS HAVE HAD 2 INCHES OF RAIN ALREADY THIS WEEK SO
CONTINUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOR MOST
OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
FALLING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT WITH THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
SLOWLY SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 454 PM EDT THURSDAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE FRONT
BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY AS
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH OVER 100M 12H HGT FALLS REACHING THE
DELMARMA AREA BY 00Z SAT THEN ROTATE NORTH TO CAPE COD BY 00Z SUNDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THEN WAITS FOR THE UPPER LOW TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED.
STRONG QG FORCING, WARM MOISTURE ADVECTION, AND STRONG LOW-MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS TO COMBINE TO BRING RAIN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE 50S IN THE VALLEYS AND INTO THE
40S IN THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LOW CUTS OFF OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURE MOSTLY IN THE 40S BUT SOME UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE ALSO PUT A BIT OF WET SNOW AT THE
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS (ABOVE 2500 FT) ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT. IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT ANOTHER 0.75-1.50" OF STEADIER LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 454 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY ON SUNDAY...HOW FAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT OF A
QUESTION. LEANED TOWARD THE EMCWF WHICH IS NOT GREAT NEWS FOR THE
THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE AROUND SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE MARATHON IN BURLINGTON.
KEPT A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING ON SUNDAY, HIGHEST IN THE
MORNING, BUT THERE COULD BE PERIODS WITHOUT SHOWERS AS WELL.
RIGHT NOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S SUNDAY MORNING AND AND LOW
TO MID 50S IN THE AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE QUITE COLD FOR MAY WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
ON MONDAY THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE MOVING FAR ENOUGH AWAY
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY TO SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES MOVING BACK INTO
THE 60S.
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE TUE-THU WITH
SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING THE FORECAST BY
WED AND THU AS TEMPERATURE BECOME MORE SUMMER-LIKE WITH RETURNING
HUMDITY AS FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH FORMING.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR COND THIS AFTNOON AS RW/TRW DEVELOP
OVER AREA. THRU 00Z FRI...VSBY 2-5SM IN -RW/FG W/ LOWEST VSBY IN
TRW. CEILINGS RANGING FROM BKN015-035 W/ LWR CEILINGS FOR CB/TRW
DEVELOPMENT. AFT 00Z FRI...-RW/FG WILL PERSIST WITH VSBY DOWN TO
3-6SM. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO MAINLY OVC010-015 W/ SCT CLDS BLW
OVC010. WINDS SSW 10-20KTS THRU 00Z-02Z FRI THEN SHIFTING TO NW-
NE 5-15KTS.
OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SFC
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRES WL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE TAF SITES
THRU THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS WL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WL DEVELOP AS SFC LOW PRES
TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. A SLOW CLRING TREND IS
ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...W/ VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 415 AM THURSDAY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXISTS FROM NOON TODAY
UNTIL 8AM FRIDAY FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD TO THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. WATCH FOR MULTIPLE STORMS TO TRACK OVER
THE SAME AREA AND COMBINED WITH RAINFALL RATES AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR...FLASH FLOODING MAY RESULT. THE THREAT WILL
TRANSITION ON FRIDAY FROM FLASH FLOODING TO POTENTIAL RIVER
FLOODING AS MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.MARINE...
A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT FOR THE
ENTIRE LAKE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE
LAKE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
EXPECTING HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR WITH ANY POTENTIAL
STORMS...ALONG WITH STRONG WIND/WAVE OCCURRENCE IN VICINITY OF ANY
THUNDER.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR VTZ001>012-
016>019.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NYZ028>031-034-
035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...JN/TABER
HYDROLOGY...
MARINE...
000
FXUS61 KBTV 231942
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
342 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS A CONCERN AS SOME STORMS WILL MOVE
REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVE COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. EXPECT MORE
RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A NOREASTER FORMS OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED AS WELL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 147 PM EDT THURSDAY...SLIGHT TWEAKS TO TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION AND LINING UP WITH POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN.
LAPS SOUNDING SHOW SATURATED ATMOSPHERIC COLUMNS...TALL SKINNY
CAPE VALUES OF UP TO 1300 J/KG. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS RUNNING NEAR 4KM
AND PW VALUES NEAR 1.70". BEING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL JET ALL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE THREAT OF VERY
EFFICIENT WARM PROCESSES...1 TO 3" HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS...AND
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FAVOR TWO
SW-NE ORIENTATED AREAS, ONE IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ANOTHER
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND NE VT. THIS SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING ON
RADAR. SOME AREAS HAVE HAD 2 INCHES OF RAIN ALREADY THIS WEEK SO
CONTINUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT THURSDAY...POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
EXIST THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY WITH TONIGHT BEING FAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR
REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND THE TRAINING OF CELLS OVER THE SAME AREA
WILL HELP KEEP THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING GOING TONIGHT. CAN
EASILY SEE 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL RATES AN HOUR THAT COULD EASILY
CAUSE PROBLEMS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS WILL SHIFT
FROM FLASH FLOODING EARLY FRIDAY TO POTENTIAL FLOODING ON RIVERS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WANT TO BECOME CUT OFF
OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS OVER THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD AND
CONTINUE TO POTENTIALLY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. SITUATION WILL HAVE TO
BE CLOSELY MONITORED ONCE WE GET THROUGH THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW TRYING TO CUT OFF
OVER THE AREA...WE ARE NO LOOKING AT BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER VERMONT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EXPECT
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND WITH THE PRECIPITATION...LOOKING AT BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THUS LOOKING AT THE
THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. THIS UNFORTUNATELY MEANS A COOLER AND WETTER
START TO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND MARATHONERS WILL WANT TO PAY
CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST GIVEN THE TREND TOWARD COOLER AND
WETTER WEATHER ON SUNDAY. EVENTUALLY THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
IN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR COND THIS AFTNOON AS RW/TRW DEVELOP
OVER AREA. THRU 00Z FRI...VSBY 2-5SM IN -RW/FG W/ LOWEST VSBY IN
TRW. CEILINGS RANGING FROM BKN015-035 W/ LWR CEILINGS FOR CB/TRW
DEVELOPMENT. AFT 00Z FRI...-RW/FG WILL PERSIST WITH VSBY DOWN TO
3-6SM. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO MAINLY OVC010-015 W/ SCT CLDS BLW
OVC010. WINDS SSW 10-20KTS THRU 00Z-02Z FRI THEN SHIFTING TO NW-
NE 5-15KTS.
OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SFC
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRES WL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE TAF SITES
THRU THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS WL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WL DEVELOP AS SFC LOW PRES
TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. A SLOW CLRING TREND IS
ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...W/ VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 415 AM THURSDAY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXISTS FROM NOON TODAY
UNTIL 8AM FRIDAY FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD TO THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. WATCH FOR MULTIPLE STORMS TO TRACK OVER
THE SAME AREA AND COMBINED WITH RAINFALL RATES AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR...FLASH FLOODING MAY RESULT. THE THREAT WILL
TRANSITION ON FRIDAY FROM FLASH FLOODING TO POTENTIAL RIVER
FLOODING AS MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.MARINE...
A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT FOR THE
ENTIRE LAKE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE
LAKE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
EXPECTING HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR WITH ANY POTENTIAL
STORMS...ALONG WITH STRONG WIND/WAVE OCCURRENCE IN VICINITY OF ANY
THUNDER.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR VTZ001>012-
016>019.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NYZ028>031-034-
035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...JN/TABER
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON
MARINE...JN
000
FXUS61 KBTV 231755
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
155 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS A CONCERN AS SOME STORMS WILL MOVE
REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVE COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. EXPECT MORE
RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A NOREASTER FORMS OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED AS WELL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 147 PM EDT THURSDAY...SLIGHT TWEAKS TO TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION AND LINING UP WITH POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN.
LAPS SOUNDING SHOW SATURATED ATMOSPHERIC COLUMNS...TALL SKINNY
CAPE VALUES OF UP TO 1300 J/KG. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS RUNNING NEAR 4KM
AND PW VALUES NEAR 1.70". BEING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL JET ALL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE THREAT OF VERY
EFFICIENT WARM PROCESSES...1 TO 3" HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS...AND
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FAVOR TWO
SW-NE ORIENTATED AREAS, ONE IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ANOTHER
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND NE VT. THIS SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING ON
RADAR. SOME AREAS HAVE HAD 2 INCHES OF RAIN ALREADY THIS WEEK SO
CONTINUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT THURSDAY...POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
EXIST THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY WITH TONIGHT BEING FAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR
REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND THE TRAINING OF CELLS OVER THE SAME AREA
WILL HELP KEEP THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING GOING TONIGHT. CAN
EASILY SEE 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL RATES AN HOUR THAT COULD EASILY
CAUSE PROBLEMS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS WILL SHIFT
FROM FLASH FLOODING EARLY FRIDAY TO POTENTIAL FLOODING ON RIVERS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WANT TO BECOME CUT OFF
OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS OVER THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD AND
CONTINUE TO POTENTIALLY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. SITUATION WILL HAVE TO
BE CLOSELY MONITORED ONCE WE GET THROUGH THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW TRYING TO CUT OFF
OVER THE AREA...WE ARE NO LOOKING AT BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER VERMONT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EXPECT
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND WITH THE PRECIPITATION...LOOKING AT BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THUS LOOKING AT THE
THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. THIS UNFORTUNATELY MEANS A COOLER AND WETTER
START TO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND MARATHONERS WILL WANT TO PAY
CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST GIVEN THE TREND TOWARD COOLER AND
WETTER WEATHER ON SUNDAY. EVENTUALLY THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
IN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR COND THIS AFTNOON AS RW/TRW DEVELOP
OVER AREA. THRU 00Z FRI...VSBY 2-5SM IN -RW/FG W/ LOWEST VSBY IN
TRW. CEILINGS RANGING FROM BKN015-035 W/ LWR CEILINGS FOR CB/TRW
DEVELOPMENT. AFT 00Z FRI...-RW/FG WILL PERSIST WITH VSBY DOWN TO
3-6SM. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO MAINLY OVC010-015 W/ SCT CLDS BLW
OVC010. WINDS SSW 10-20KTS THRU 00Z-02Z FRI THEN SHIFTING TO NW-
NE 5-15KTS.
OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SFC
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRES WL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE TAF SITES
THRU THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS WL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WL DEVELOP AS SFC LOW PRES
TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. A SLOW CLRING TREND IS
ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...W/ VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 415 AM THURSDAY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXISTS FROM NOON TODAY
UNTIL 8AM FRIDAY FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD TO THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. WATCH FOR MULTIPLE STORMS TO TRACK OVER
THE SAME AREA AND COMBINED WITH RAINFALL RATES AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR...FLASH FLOODING MAY RESULT. THE THREAT WILL
TRANSITION ON FRIDAY FROM FLASH FLOODING TO POTENTIAL RIVER
FLOODING AS MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR VTZ001>012-
016>019.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NYZ028>031-034-
035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...JN/TABER
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON
000
FXUS61 KBTV 231747
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
147 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS A CONCERN AS SOME STORMS WILL MOVE
REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVE COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. EXPECT MORE
RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A NOREASTER FORMS OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED AS WELL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 147 PM EDT THURSDAY...SLIGHT TWEAKS TO TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION AND LINING UP WITH POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN.
LAPS SOUNDING SHOW SATURATED ATMOSPHERIC COLUMNS...TALL SKINNY
CAPE VALUES OF UP TO 1300 J/KG. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS RUNNING NEAR 4KM
AND PW VALUES NEAR 1.70". BEING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL JET ALL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE THREAT OF VERY
EFFICIENT WARM PROCESSES...1 TO 3" HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS...AND
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FAVOR TWO
SW-NE ORIENTATED AREAS, ONE IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ANOTHER
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND NE VT. THIS SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING ON
RADAR. SOME AREAS HAVE HAD 2 INCHES OF RAIN ALREADY THIS WEEK SO
CONTINUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT THURSDAY...POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
EXIST THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY WITH TONIGHT BEING FAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR
REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND THE TRAINING OF CELLS OVER THE SAME AREA
WILL HELP KEEP THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING GOING TONIGHT. CAN
EASILY SEE 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL RATES AN HOUR THAT COULD EASILY
CAUSE PROBLEMS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS WILL SHIFT
FROM FLASH FLOODING EARLY FRIDAY TO POTENTIAL FLOODING ON RIVERS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WANT TO BECOME CUT OFF
OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS OVER THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD AND
CONTINUE TO POTENTIALLY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. SITUATION WILL HAVE TO
BE CLOSELY MONITORED ONCE WE GET THROUGH THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW TRYING TO CUT OFF
OVER THE AREA...WE ARE NO LOOKING AT BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER VERMONT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EXPECT
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND WITH THE PRECIPITATION...LOOKING AT BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THUS LOOKING AT THE
THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. THIS UNFORTUNATELY MEANS A COOLER AND WETTER
START TO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND MARATHONERS WILL WANT TO PAY
CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST GIVEN THE TREND TOWARD COOLER AND
WETTER WEATHER ON SUNDAY. EVENTUALLY THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
IN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL DEVELOP
ACRS OUR TAF SITES TODAY...WITH MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR LIKELY IN
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS. CRNT RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING FROM SW TO NE ACRS WESTERN/NORTHERN NY ATTM...WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...LOW STRATUS WITH IFR AT MPV WL
DISSIPATE BTWN 12Z-14Z TODAY. CHCS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WL INCREASE
AFT 15Z...WITH BEST CHC OF IFR CONDITIONS BTWN 17Z-21Z...WHEN
INSTABILITY IS THE GREATEST. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WL CONT INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING WITH
AREAS OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WL BE
LIKELY AT MPV/SLK/PBG WITH MVFR AT MSS/RUT/BTV. ALSO...BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNTS
TODAY...WL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SFC
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRES WL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE TAF SITES
THRU THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS WL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WL DEVELOP AS SFC LOW PRES
TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. A SLOW CLRING TREND IS
ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 415 AM THURSDAY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXISTS FROM NOON TODAY
UNTIL 8AM FRIDAY FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD TO THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. WATCH FOR MULTIPLE STORMS TO TRACK OVER
THE SAME AREA AND COMBINED WITH RAINFALL RATES AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR...FLASH FLOODING MAY RESULT. THE THREAT WILL
TRANSITION ON FRIDAY FROM FLASH FLOODING TO POTENTIAL RIVER
FLOODING AS MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR VTZ001>012-
016>019.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NYZ028>031-034-
035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...TABER
HYDROLOGY...
000
FXUS61 KALY 231740
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
140 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AND STALL ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE...INTENSIFY...AND LINGER ON THIS
FRONT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MEMORIAL DAY AND DRIFT OVER
OUR REGION INTO MIDWEEK WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...A COLD FRONT REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CNTRL NY AND
PA. THIS PREFRONTAL TROUGH IN THE WARM SECTOR HAS PRODUCED SCT
SHOWERS OVER THE SRN DACKS AND W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND OTHER
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE. THE THUNDERSTORMS
APPEAR TO BE TRAINING...AND A FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT...AND SE DUTCHESS COUNTY. A 30-35 KT H850
LLJ AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION HAVE CAUSED THE
BAND OF CONVECTION. POPS WERE ISSUED FOR CATEGORICAL VALUES. MOST
OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO
BOUNDARIES WITH JUST SOME SCT SHOWERS. ANOTHER BAND IS STARTING TO
REACH THE WRN DACKS...SO HIGHER POPS HAVE PLACED HERE.
THE SATELLITE PICTURE IS CLUTTERED WITH CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL
INHIBIT WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.
DEWPTS REMAIN IN THE U50S TO M60S...SO ANY HOLES IN THE CLOUD
COVER MAY ALLOW SBCAPES VALUES OF 400-800 J/KG TO DEVELOP. THE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO LOOK POOR AT THIS TIME...BUT THE
BETTER UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ARRIVE IN THE LATE PM AND EVENING
/OUR FORECAST AREA GETS IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET
STREAK/...AND THE DEEP SHEAR STRENGTHENS TO 40-50 KTS...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD BTWN 18Z- 00Z. THE AMOUNT OF
HEATING AND SFC DESTABILIZATION REMAINS THE QUESTION FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS PM. NO ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE ZONES AND GRIDS YET. SOME MULTICELLS EVOLVING INTO LINES AND
BANDS LOOK POSSIBLE BASED ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND HODOGRAPHS.
THE LOW TO MODEST INSTABILITY AMOUNTS SHOULD LIMIT TALL UPDRAFTS.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS UP FOR THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST
AREA. ZONAL FFG VALUES IN THE 1/3/6 HR TIME FRAME HAVE LOWERED TO
1-2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND SRN VT DUE TO
THE HEAVY RAINS THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH THE ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES COULD PRODUCE SOME
FLASH FLOODING IN A FEW SPOTS. AT THIS TIME...MONITORING FOR
EXPANSION BASED ON THE HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
SOUTH.
TEMPS WERE LOWERED ABOUT A CATEGORY TO THE M60S TO M70S OVER THE
REGION FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO JUST AN AREAS OF STEADY
RAIN LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL COOLING GRADUALLY SPREADS
EAST...AND THE STRENGTHENING UPPER FEATURE BEGINS TO CUT OFF AND
TRACK ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOMORROW INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 50S TO L60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE TREND THAT BEGAN APPEARING IN THE MODEL SUITE TWO DAYS AGO...IS
NOW CONSENSUS FOR THE WEEKEND. 00 UTC GFS/NAM/ECMWF HAVE CDFNT
STALLING ALONG I-95 CORRIDOR BY FRI MORNING. SHARP 500HPA TROF FM
QB TO APPALACHIANS MOVING EAST...AS SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DIVE
SOUTHWARD INTO IT AND CUT IT OFF.
DURING FRI IT CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLC STATES...COASTAL
CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES OFF LONG ISLAND...AND THE SLOWLY DEEPENING SFC
LOW AND THE 500HPA CUT OFF BCMG VERTICAL OFF S NEW ENG COAST
SAT...THEN DRIFT SLOWLY N SUNDAY INTO GULF OF MAINE.
NEEDLESS TO SAY THIS IS GOING TO FEEL MORE LIKE A LATE OCTOBER
WEEKEND IN THE NORTHEAST. DURING FRIDAY -SHRA WILL TRANSITION TO
PERIODS OF RAIN IN ANNA TYPE FRONT BTWN SFC FRONT AND 500HPA AXIS.
AT SAME TIME GRADIENT BETWEEN 1031MB HIGH OVER MIDWEST...AND
DEEPENING SFC LOW OFF LONG ISLAND WILL RESULT IN A 14MB WIND
GRADIENT ACROSS NYS FRI & SAT. N WINDS WILL INCR TO 10-20 MPH AND
RESULT WILL BE A RAINY RAW FRI AND SAT.
GFS QPF OF 1-2.5 INCHES...ECMWF 0.75 TO 1.0 FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SAT NT.
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL JUST HOLD STEADY NEAR
MORNING LOWS...BEFORE FALLING DURING FRI AFTN IN STRONG CAA. THEY
WILL FALL FURTHER FRI NT INTO THE 40S WITH 30S IN WESTERN
PERIPHERY. SAT HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S WITH CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF RAIN. MAX MIN TEMPS IN GUIDANCE ARE PROBABLY NOT
MUCH USE...AS ALOT OF NON-DIURNAL EFFECTS GOING ON FRI INTO SAT.
WILL USE 3 HOURLIES AND LET MAX/MINS FALL OUT.
OF NOTE IS THAT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PCPN/CLOUDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE A VERY SHARP TRANSITION...SOMEWHERE ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF FCA. PCPN COULD BE SPOTTY OR NON-EXISTENT ALONG W
EDGE OF FCA...AND THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF THINNING CLOUDS WHICH
WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO NR FREEZING DURING MORNINGS.
SUN THE VERTICAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT THROUGH THE GULF
OF MAINE...INTO THE MARITIMES SUN NT. THE GFS HAS CLOUDS AND -SHRA
DIM SUNDAY WITH INCRG SUN ALONG W PRTNS OF FCA. THE ECMWF KEEPS IT
CLOUDY AND WET INTO SUN EVENING. THE O6UTC NAM/GFS ARE A TAD MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAS CLOUDS AND RAIN ONLY FM HUD
VLY EAST SAT...AND THE SYSTEM CLEARLY EXITING REGION SAT NT.
FOR NOW FCST REFLECTS 00UTC MODEL SUITE TIMING...WITH SKIES FINALLY
CLEARING SUN NT ACROSS FCA AS 500HPA RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE GRTLKS
AND SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO E GRTLKS. BUT IF THE EMERGING TREND
CONTINUES ON LATER RUNS...CONDITIONS MIGHT NOTICEABLE IMPROVE
ACROSS FCA FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER A SOGGY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE CUTOFF AND SFC SYSTEM DEPART
AS RIDGE AT 500HPA BUILDS INTO GRTLKS AND SFC HIGH BUILDS FROM
GRTLKS TO CAROLINAS MONDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL SHIFT EAST AS LARGE
500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS OVER E USA AND SFC HIGH SETTLES OFF THE EAST
COAST. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NR NORMAL MONDAY..AND BUILD UPWARD
INTO THE WEEK. FCA IN WAA REGIME THROUGHOUT. THE GFS BRINGS A
WMFNT AND CHC -SHRA/TSTMS LATE TUES AND WED...WHILE ECMWF KEEPS IT
DRY INTO THU. ONLY 6 MEMBERS OF THE GEFS ARE IN LINE WITH THE
OPERATIONAL RUN PCPN WED...THE REST OF THEIR PLUMES ARE FLAT
LINED. WPC HOLDS PCPN OFF TILL END OF EFP ON THUR. SO FOR NOW WILL
HAVE A FAIR WARM EFP...WITH A VERY NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND TO ABV
NORMAL TEMPS. WILL POPULATE WITH WPC FROM MIDNIGHT SHIFT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT MVFR-IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON IN SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT SWITCHES SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND TO NORTHERLY SOMETIME
AROUND DAYBREAK UPON ITS PASSAGE THROUGH THE AIRPORTS. LOW PRESSURE
RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. NO SHEAR ISSUES.
OUTLOOK...
FRI PM-SAT...MAINLY VFR. -SHRA LIKELY.
SAT NGT-SUN...VFR...CHC -SHRA.
SUN NGT-TUE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO SUNDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN...MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND ONLY 60-80 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...TURNING NORTH
FRIDAY AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH. .
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ECMWF AND GFS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL INTO CWA
INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS PRODUCE
2.50 TO 5.0 INCHES OF RAIN IN CWA INTO SUNDAY. GEFS SHOW AVERAGE
OF 2.0 INCHES THROUGH WEEKEND WITH 8 MEMBERS PUSHING IN EXCESS OF
3.5 INCHES.
FIRST CHALLENGE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL COME WITH TODAYS SLOWLY MOVING
FRONT. EASTERN CWA AND CENTRAL CWA HAVE SEEN HEAVIEST RAIN OVER
THE LAST TWO DAYS AND WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE REGION WHERE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IS AT HIGHEST. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED FOR THESE
AREAS.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-082>084.
MA...NONE.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...ELH
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
000
FXUS61 KALY 231734
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
134 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AND STALL ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE...INTENSIFY...AND LINGER ON THIS
FRONT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MEMORIAL DAY AND DRIFT OVER
OUR REGION INTO MIDWEEK WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...A COLD FRONT REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CNTRL NY AND
PA. THIS PREFRONTAL TROUGH IN THE WARM SECTOR HAS PRODUCED SCT
SHOWERS OVER THE SRN DACKS AND W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND OTHER
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE. THE THUNDERSTORMS
APPEAR TO BE TRAINING...AND A FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT...AND SE DUTCHESS COUNTY. A 30-35 KT H850
LLJ AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION HAVE CAUSED THE
BAND OF CONVECTION. POPS WERE ISSUED FOR CATEGORICAL VALUES. MOST
OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO
BOUNDARIES WITH JUST SOME SCT SHOWERS. ANOTHER BAND IS STARTING TO
REACH THE WRN DACKS...SO HIGHER POPS HAVE PLACED HERE.
THE SATELLITE PICTURE IS CLUTTERED WITH CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL
INHIBIT WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.
DEWPTS REMAIN IN THE U50S TO M60S...SO ANY HOLES IN THE CLOUD
COVER MAY ALLOW SBCAPES VALUES OF 400-800 J/KG TO DEVELOP. THE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO LOOK POOR AT THIS TIME...BUT THE
BETTER UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ARRIVE IN THE LATE PM AND EVENING
/OUR FORECAST AREA GETS IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET
STREAK/...AND THE DEEP SHEAR STRENGTHENS TO 40-50 KTS...ESPECIALLY
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD BTWN 18Z- 00Z. THE AMOUNT OF
HEATING AND SFC DESTABILIZATION REMAINS THE QUESTION FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS PM. NO ENHANCED WORDING IN
THE ZONES AND GRIDS YET. SOME MULTICELLS EVOLVING INTO LINES AND
BANDS LOOK POSSIBLE BASED ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND HODOGRAPHS.
THE LOW TO MODEST INSTABILITY AMOUNTS SHOULD LIMIT TALL UPDRAFTS.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS UP FOR THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST
AREA. ZONAL FFG VALUES IN THE 1/3/6 HR TIME FRAME HAVE LOWERED TO
1-2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND SRN VT DUE TO
THE HEAVY RAINS THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH THE ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES COULD PRODUCE SOME
FLASH FLOODING IN A FEW SPOTS. AT THIS TIME...MONITORING FOR
EXPANSION BASED ON THE HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
SOUTH.
TEMPS WERE LOWERED ABOUT A CATEGORY TO THE M60S TO M70S OVER THE
REGION FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO JUST AN AREAS OF STEADY
RAIN LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL COOLING GRADUALLY SPREADS
EAST...AND THE STRENGTHENING UPPER FEATURE BEGINS TO CUT OFF AND
TRACK ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOMORROW INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 50S TO L60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE TREND THAT BEGAN APPEARING IN THE MODEL SUITE TWO DAYS AGO...IS
NOW CONSENSUS FOR THE WEEKEND. 00 UTC GFS/NAM/ECMWF HAVE CDFNT
STALLING ALONG I-95 CORRIDOR BY FRI MORNING. SHARP 500HPA TROF FM
QB TO APPALACHIANS MOVING EAST...AS SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DIVE
SOUTHWARD INTO IT AND CUT IT OFF.
DURING FRI IT CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLC STATES...COASTAL
CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES OFF LONG ISLAND...AND THE SLOWLY DEEPENING SFC
LOW AND THE 500HPA CUT OFF BCMG VERTICAL OFF S NEW ENG COAST
SAT...THEN DRIFT SLOWLY N SUNDAY INTO GULF OF MAINE.
NEEDLESS TO SAY THIS IS GOING TO FEEL MORE LIKE A LATE OCTOBER
WEEKEND IN THE NORTHEAST. DURING FRIDAY -SHRA WILL TRANSITION TO
PERIODS OF RAIN IN ANNA TYPE FRONT BTWN SFC FRONT AND 500HPA AXIS.
AT SAME TIME GRADIENT BETWEEN 1031MB HIGH OVER MIDWEST...AND
DEEPENING SFC LOW OFF LONG ISLAND WILL RESULT IN A 14MB WIND
GRADIENT ACROSS NYS FRI & SAT. N WINDS WILL INCR TO 10-20 MPH AND
RESULT WILL BE A RAINY RAW FRI AND SAT.
GFS QPF OF 1-2.5 INCHES...ECMWF 0.75 TO 1.0 FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SAT NT.
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL JUST HOLD STEADY NEAR
MORNING LOWS...BEFORE FALLING DURING FRI AFTN IN STRONG CAA. THEY
WILL FALL FURTHER FRI NT INTO THE 40S WITH 30S IN WESTERN
PERIPHERY. SAT HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S WITH CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF RAIN. MAX MIN TEMPS IN GUIDANCE ARE PROBABLY NOT
MUCH USE...AS ALOT OF NON-DIURNAL EFFECTS GOING ON FRI INTO SAT.
WILL USE 3 HOURLIES AND LET MAX/MINS FALL OUT.
OF NOTE IS THAT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PCPN/CLOUDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE A VERY SHARP TRANSITION...SOMEWHERE ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF FCA. PCPN COULD BE SPOTTY OR NON-EXISTENT ALONG W
EDGE OF FCA...AND THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF THINNING CLOUDS WHICH
WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO NR FREEZING DURING MORNINGS.
SUN THE VERTICAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT THROUGH THE GULF
OF MAINE...INTO THE MARITIMES SUN NT. THE GFS HAS CLOUDS AND -SHRA
DIM SUNDAY WITH INCRG SUN ALONG W PRTNS OF FCA. THE ECMWF KEEPS IT
CLOUDY AND WET INTO SUN EVENING. THE O6UTC NAM/GFS ARE A TAD MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAS CLOUDS AND RAIN ONLY FM HUD
VLY EAST SAT...AND THE SYSTEM CLEARLY EXITING REGION SAT NT.
FOR NOW FCST REFLECTS 00UTC MODEL SUITE TIMING...WITH SKIES FINALLY
CLEARING SUN NT ACROSS FCA AS 500HPA RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE GRTLKS
AND SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO E GRTLKS. BUT IF THE EMERGING TREND
CONTINUES ON LATER RUNS...CONDITIONS MIGHT NOTICEABLE IMPROVE
ACROSS FCA FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A SOGGY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE CUTOFF AND SFC SYSTEM DEPART
AS RIDGE AT 500HPA BUILDS INTO GRTLKS AND SFC HIGH BUILDS FROM
GRTLKS TO CAROLINAS MONDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL SHIFT EAST AS LARGE
500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS OVER E USA AND SFC HIGH SETTLES OFF THE EAST
COAST. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NR NORMAL MONDAY..AND BUILD UPWARD
INTO THE WEEK. FCA IN WAA REGIME THROUGHOUT. THE GFS BRINGS A
WMFNT AND CHC -SHRA/TSTMS LATE TUES AND WED...WHILE ECMWF KEEPS IT
DRY INTO THU. ONLY 6 MEMBERS OF THE GEFS ARE IN LINE WITH THE
OPERATIONAL RUN PCPN WED...THE REST OF THEIR PLUMES ARE FLAT
LINED. WPC HOLDS PCPN OFF TILL END OF EFP ON THUR. SO FOR NOW WILL
HAVE A FAIR WARM EFP...WITH A VERY NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND TO ABV
NORMAL TEMPS. WILL POPULATE WITH WPC FROM MIDNIGHT SHIFT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LINGERING FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AT KPOU AND PSF
THIS MORNING WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
OVER EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD LAST TO AROUND
16Z...WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AND APPROACH
THE TAF SITES. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS KGFL WHERE A FEW SHOWERS MAY
IMPACT THE TERMINAL BTWN 12Z-14Z.
SINCE CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WELL WEST...AND
THE TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT AND TRACKING OF THUNDERSTORMS IS SO
UNCERTAIN...JUST PUTTING GENERIC VCTS AT ALL SITES BETWEEN 16Z AND
22Z...AS MORE SPECIFIC TIMING WILL BE PROVIDED IN LATER TAF
ISSUANCES. STEADIER RAIN AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE AROUND THE
AIRPORTS BY 22Z-24Z...SO LOWERED CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES TO
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS FOR THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. AGAIN...UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EVOLVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO JUST INDICATING
SHOWERS. LATER TAF ISSUANCES WILL ADDRESS THE THUNDERSTORM TIMING.
WINDS ARE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 15 KT EARLY THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY. WINDS SHOULD TREND TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT-MON...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO SUNDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN...MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND ONLY 60-80 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...TURNING NORTH
FRIDAY AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH. .
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ECMWF AND GFS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL INTO CWA
INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS PRODUCE
2.50 TO 5.0 INCHES OF RAIN IN CWA INTO SUNDAY. GEFS SHOW AVERAGE
OF 2.0 INCHES THROUGH WEEKEND WITH 8 MEMBERS PUSHING IN EXCESS OF
3.5 INCHES.
FIRST CHALLENGE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL COME WITH TODAYS SLOWLY MOVING
FRONT. EASTERN CWA AND CENTRAL CWA HAVE SEEN HEAVIEST RAIN OVER
THE LAST TWO DAYS AND WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE REGION WHERE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IS AT HIGHEST. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED FOR THESE
AREAS.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-082>084.
MA...NONE.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
000
FXUS61 KALY 231727
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AND STALL ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE...INTENSIFY...AND LINGER ON THIS
FRONT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MEMORIAL DAY AND DRIFT OVER
OUR REGION INTO MIDWEEK WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.
&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT...A COLD FRONT REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS W-CNTRL NY AND
PA. THIS PREFRONTAL TROUGH IN THE WARM SECTOR HAS PRODUCED SCT
SHOWERS OVER THE SRN DACKS AND W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND OTHER
SHOWERS HAVE BLOSSOMED OVER THE LOWER TO MID HUDSON VALLEY IN
ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE. POPS HAVE BEEN READJUSTED TO
LIKELY VALUES OVER THE SRN TIER.
THE SATELLITE PICTURE IS CLUTTERED WITH CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL
INHIBIT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. DEWPTS REMAIN IN THE
U50S TO M60S...SO ANY HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY ALLOW SBCAPES
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG TO DEVELOP. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK
POOR AT THIS TIME...BUT THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ARRIVE
IN THE LATE PM AND EVENING /OUR FORECAST AREA GETS IN THE RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET STREAK/...AND THE DEEP SHEAR STRENGTHENS TO
40-50 KTS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD BTWN 18Z-
00Z. THE AMOUNT OF HEATING AND SFC DESTABILIZATION REMAINS THE
QUESTION FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES AND GRIDS YET. SOME MULTICELLS EVOLVING INTO
LINES AND BANDS LOOK POSSIBLE BASED ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
HODOGRAPHS.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS UP FOR THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST
AREA. ZONAL FFG VALUES IN THE 1/3/6 HR TIME FRAME HAVE LOWERED TO
1-2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND SRN VT DUE TO
THE HEAVY RAINS THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH THE ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES COULD PRODUCE SOME
FLASH FLOODING IN A FEW SPOTS.
TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK WITH MAXES IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO JUST AN AREAS OF STEADY
RAIN LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL COOLING GRADUALLY SPREADS
EAST...AND THE STRENGTHENING UPPER FEATURE BEGINS TO CUT OFF AND
TRACK ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOMORROW INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE TREND THAT BEGAN APPEARING IN THE MODEL SUITE TWO DAYS AGO...IS
NOW CONSENSUS FOR THE WEEKEND. 00 UTC GFS/NAM/ECMWF HAVE CDFNT
STALLING ALONG I-95 CORRIDOR BY FRI MORNING. SHARP 500HPA TROF FM
QB TO APPALACHIANS MOVING EAST...AS SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DIVE
SOUTHWARD INTO IT AND CUT IT OFF.
DURING FRI IT CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLC STATES...COASTAL
CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES OFF LONG ISLAND...AND THE SLOWLY DEEPENING SFC
LOW AND THE 500HPA CUT OFF BCMG VERTICAL OFF S NEW ENG COAST
SAT...THEN DRIFT SLOWLY N SUNDAY INTO GULF OF MAINE.
NEEDLESS TO SAY THIS IS GOING TO FEEL MORE LIKE A LATE OCTOBER
WEEKEND IN THE NORTHEAST. DURING FRIDAY -SHRA WILL TRANSITION TO
PERIODS OF RAIN IN ANNA TYPE FRONT BTWN SFC FRONT AND 500HPA AXIS.
AT SAME TIME GRADIENT BETWEEN 1031MB HIGH OVER MIDWEST...AND
DEEPENING SFC LOW OFF LONG ISLAND WILL RESULT IN A 14MB WIND
GRADIENT ACROSS NYS FRI & SAT. N WINDS WILL INCR TO 10-20 MPH AND
RESULT WILL BE A RAINY RAW FRI AND SAT.
GFS QPF OF 1-2.5 INCHES...ECMWF 0.75 TO 1.0 FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SAT NT.
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL JUST HOLD STEADY NEAR
MORNING LOWS...BEFORE FALLING DURING FRI AFTN IN STRONG CAA. THEY
WILL FALL FURTHER FRI NT INTO THE 40S WITH 30S IN WESTERN
PERIPHERY. SAT HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S WITH CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF RAIN. MAX MIN TEMPS IN GUIDANCE ARE PROBABLY NOT
MUCH USE...AS ALOT OF NON-DIURNAL EFFECTS GOING ON FRI INTO SAT.
WILL USE 3 HOURLIES AND LET MAX/MINS FALL OUT.
OF NOTE IS THAT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PCPN/CLOUDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE A VERY SHARP TRANSITION...SOMEWHERE ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF FCA. PCPN COULD BE SPOTTY OR NON-EXISTENT ALONG W
EDGE OF FCA...AND THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF THINNING CLOUDS WHICH
WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO NR FREEZING DURING MORNINGS.
SUN THE VERTICAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT THROUGH THE GULF
OF MAINE...INTO THE MARITIMES SUN NT. THE GFS HAS CLOUDS AND -SHRA
DIM SUNDAY WITH INCRG SUN ALONG W PRTNS OF FCA. THE ECMWF KEEPS IT
CLOUDY AND WET INTO SUN EVENING. THE O6UTC NAM/GFS ARE A TAD MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAS CLOUDS AND RAIN ONLY FM HUD
VLY EAST SAT...AND THE SYSTEM CLEARLY EXITING REGION SAT NT.
FOR NOW FCST REFLECTS 00UTC MODEL SUITE TIMING...WITH SKIES FINALLY
CLEARING SUN NT ACROSS FCA AS 500HPA RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE GRTLKS
AND SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO E GRTLKS. BUT IF THE EMERGING TREND
CONTINUES ON LATER RUNS...CONDITIONS MIGHT NOTICEABLE IMPROVE
ACROSS FCA FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER A SOGGY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE CUTOFF AND SFC SYSTEM DEPART
AS RIDGE AT 500HPA BUILDS INTO GRTLKS AND SFC HIGH BUILDS FROM
GRTLKS TO CAROLINAS MONDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL SHIFT EAST AS LARGE
500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS OVER E USA AND SFC HIGH SETTLES OFF THE EAST
COAST. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NR NORMAL MONDAY..AND BUILD UPWARD
INTO THE WEEK. FCA IN WAA REGIME THROUGHOUT. THE GFS BRINGS A
WMFNT AND CHC -SHRA/TSTMS LATE TUES AND WED...WHILE ECMWF KEEPS IT
DRY INTO THU. ONLY 6 MEMBERS OF THE GEFS ARE IN LINE WITH THE
OPERATIONAL RUN PCPN WED...THE REST OF THEIR PLUMES ARE FLAT
LINED. WPC HOLDS PCPN OFF TILL END OF EFP ON THUR. SO FOR NOW WILL
HAVE A FAIR WARM EFP...WITH A VERY NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND TO ABV
NORMAL TEMPS. WILL POPULATE WITH WPC FROM MIDNIGHT SHIFT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT MVFR-IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON IN SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT SWITCHES SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND TO NORTHERLY SOMETIME
AROUND DAYBREAK UPON ITS PASSAGE THROUGH THE AIRPORTS. LOW PRESSURE
RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. NO SHEAR ISSUES.
OUTLOOK...
FRI PM-SAT...MAINLY VFR. -SHRA LIKELY.
SAT NGT-SUN...VFR...CHC -SHRA.
SUN NGT-MON...VFR...NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO SUNDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN...MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND ONLY 60-80 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...TURNING NORTH
FRIDAY AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH. .
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ECMWF AND GFS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL INTO CWA
INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS PRODUCE
2.50 TO 5.0 INCHES OF RAIN IN CWA INTO SUNDAY. GEFS SHOW AVERAGE
OF 2.0 INCHES THROUGH WEEKEND WITH 8 MEMBERS PUSHING IN EXCESS OF
3.5 INCHES.
FIRST CHALLENGE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL COME WITH TODAYS SLOWLY MOVING
FRONT. EASTERN CWA AND CENTRAL CWA HAVE SEEN HEAVIEST RAIN OVER
THE LAST TWO DAYS AND WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE REGION WHERE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IS AT HIGHEST. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
THESE AREAS.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-082>084.
MA...NONE.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...ELH
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
000
FXUS61 KALY 231438
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1038 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AND STALL ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE...INTENSIFY...AND LINGER ON THIS
FRONT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MEMORIAL DAY AND DRIFT OVER
OUR REGION INTO MIDWEEK WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.
&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT...A COLD FRONT REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS W-CNTRL NY AND
PA. THIS PREFRONTAL TROUGH IN THE WARM SECTOR HAS PRODUCED SCT
SHOWERS OVER THE SRN DACKS AND W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND OTHER
SHOWERS HAVE BLOSSOMED OVER THE LOWER TO MID HUDSON VALLEY IN
ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE. POPS HAVE BEEN READJUSTED TO
LIKELY VALUES OVER THE SRN TIER.
THE SATELLITE PICTURE IS CLUTTERED WITH CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL
INHIBIT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. DEWPTS REMAIN IN THE
U50S TO M60S...SO ANY HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY ALLOW SBCAPES
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG TO DEVELOP. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK
POOR AT THIS TIME...BUT THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ARRIVE
IN THE LATE PM AND EVENING /OUR FORECAST AREA GETS IN THE RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET STREAK/...AND THE DEEP SHEAR STRENGTHENS TO
40-50 KTS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD BTWN 18Z-
00Z. THE AMOUNT OF HEATING AND SFC DESTABILIZATION REMAINS THE
QUESTION FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. NO ENHANCED
WORDING IN THE ZONES AND GRIDS YET. SOME MULTICELLS EVOLVING INTO
LINES AND BANDS LOOK POSSIBLE BASED ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
HODOGRAPHS.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS UP FOR THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST
AREA. ZONAL FFG VALUES IN THE 1/3/6 HR TIME FRAME HAVE LOWERED TO
1-2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND SRN VT DUE TO
THE HEAVY RAINS THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH THE ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES COULD PRODUCE SOME
FLASH FLOODING IN A FEW SPOTS.
TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK WITH MAXES IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO JUST AN AREAS OF STEADY
RAIN LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL COOLING GRADUALLY SPREADS
EAST...AND THE STRENGTHENING UPPER FEATURE BEGINS TO CUT OFF AND
TRACK ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOMORROW INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE TREND THAT BEGAN APPEARING IN THE MODEL SUITE TWO DAYS AGO...IS
NOW CONSENSUS FOR THE WEEKEND. 00 UTC GFS/NAM/ECMWF HAVE CDFNT
STALLING ALONG I-95 CORRIDOR BY FRI MORNING. SHARP 500HPA TROF FM
QB TO APPALACHIANS MOVING EAST...AS SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DIVE
SOUTHWARD INTO IT AND CUT IT OFF.
DURING FRI IT CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLC STATES...COASTAL
CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES OFF LONG ISLAND...AND THE SLOWLY DEEPENING SFC
LOW AND THE 500HPA CUT OFF BCMG VERTICAL OFF S NEW ENG COAST
SAT...THEN DRIFT SLOWLY N SUNDAY INTO GULF OF MAINE.
NEEDLESS TO SAY THIS IS GOING TO FEEL MORE LIKE A LATE OCTOBER
WEEKEND IN THE NORTHEAST. DURING FRIDAY -SHRA WILL TRANSITION TO
PERIODS OF RAIN IN ANNA TYPE FRONT BTWN SFC FRONT AND 500HPA AXIS.
AT SAME TIME GRADIENT BETWEEN 1031MB HIGH OVER MIDWEST...AND
DEEPENING SFC LOW OFF LONG ISLAND WILL RESULT IN A 14MB WIND
GRADIENT ACROSS NYS FRI & SAT. N WINDS WILL INCR TO 10-20 MPH AND
RESULT WILL BE A RAINY RAW FRI AND SAT.
GFS QPF OF 1-2.5 INCHES...ECMWF 0.75 TO 1.0 FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SAT NT.
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL JUST HOLD STEADY NEAR
MORNING LOWS...BEFORE FALLING DURING FRI AFTN IN STRONG CAA. THEY
WILL FALL FURTHER FRI NT INTO THE 40S WITH 30S IN WESTERN
PERIPHERY. SAT HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S WITH CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF RAIN. MAX MIN TEMPS IN GUIDANCE ARE PROBABLY NOT
MUCH USE...AS ALOT OF NON-DIURNAL EFFECTS GOING ON FRI INTO SAT.
WILL USE 3 HOURLIES AND LET MAX/MINS FALL OUT.
OF NOTE IS THAT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PCPN/CLOUDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE A VERY SHARP TRANSITION...SOMEWHERE ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF FCA. PCPN COULD BE SPOTTY OR NON-EXISTENT ALONG W
EDGE OF FCA...AND THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF THINNING CLOUDS WHICH
WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO NR FREEZING DURING MORNINGS.
SUN THE VERTICAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT THROUGH THE GULF
OF MAINE...INTO THE MARITIMES SUN NT. THE GFS HAS CLOUDS AND -SHRA
DIM SUNDAY WITH INCRG SUN ALONG W PRTNS OF FCA. THE ECMWF KEEPS IT
CLOUDY AND WET INTO SUN EVENING. THE O6UTC NAM/GFS ARE A TAD MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAS CLOUDS AND RAIN ONLY FM HUD
VLY EAST SAT...AND THE SYSTEM CLEARLY EXITING REGION SAT NT.
FOR NOW FCST REFLECTS 00UTC MODEL SUITE TIMING...WITH SKIES FINALLY
CLEARING SUN NT ACROSS FCA AS 500HPA RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE GRTLKS
AND SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO E GRTLKS. BUT IF THE EMERGING TREND
CONTINUES ON LATER RUNS...CONDITIONS MIGHT NOTICEABLE IMPROVE
ACROSS FCA FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER A SOGGY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE CUTOFF AND SFC SYSTEM DEPART
AS RIDGE AT 500HPA BUILDS INTO GRTLKS AND SFC HIGH BUILDS FROM
GRTLKS TO CAROLINAS MONDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL SHIFT EAST AS LARGE
500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS OVER E USA AND SFC HIGH SETTLES OFF THE EAST
COAST. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NR NORMAL MONDAY..AND BUILD UPWARD
INTO THE WEEK. FCA IN WAA REGIME THROUGHOUT. THE GFS BRINGS A
WMFNT AND CHC -SHRA/TSTMS LATE TUES AND WED...WHILE ECMWF KEEPS IT
DRY INTO THU. ONLY 6 MEMBERS OF THE GEFS ARE IN LINE WITH THE
OPERATIONAL RUN PCPN WED...THE REST OF THEIR PLUMES ARE FLAT
LINED. WPC HOLDS PCPN OFF TILL END OF EFP ON THUR. SO FOR NOW WILL
HAVE A FAIR WARM EFP...WITH A VERY NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND TO ABV
NORMAL TEMPS. WILL POPULATE WITH WPC FROM MIDNIGHT SHIFT.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LINGERING FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AT KPOU AND PSF
THIS MORNING WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
OVER EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD LAST TO AROUND
16Z...WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AND APPROACH
THE TAF SITES. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS KGFL WHERE A FEW SHOWERS MAY
IMPACT THE TERMINAL BTWN 12Z-14Z.
SINCE CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WELL WEST...AND
THE TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT AND TRACKING OF THUNDERSTORMS IS SO
UNCERTAIN...JUST PUTTING GENERIC VCTS AT ALL SITES BETWEEN 16Z AND
22Z...AS MORE SPECIFIC TIMING WILL BE PROVIDED IN LATER TAF
ISSUANCES. STEADIER RAIN AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE AROUND THE
AIRPORTS BY 22Z-24Z...SO LOWERED CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES TO
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS FOR THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. AGAIN...UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EVOLVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO JUST INDICATING
SHOWERS. LATER TAF ISSUANCES WILL ADDRESS THE THUNDERSTORM TIMING.
WINDS ARE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 15 KT EARLY THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY. WINDS SHOULD TREND TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT-MON...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO SUNDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN...MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND ONLY 60-80 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...TURNING NORTH
FRIDAY AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH. .
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ECMWF AND GFS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL INTO CWA
INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS PRODUCE
2.50 TO 5.0 INCHES OF RAIN IN CWA INTO SUNDAY. GEFS SHOW AVERAGE
OF 2.0 INCHES THROUGH WEEKEND WITH 8 MEMBERS PUSHING IN EXCESS OF
3.5 INCHES.
FIRST CHALLENGE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL COME WITH TODAYS SLOWLY MOVING
FRONT. EASTERN CWA AND CENTRAL CWA HAVE SEEN HEAVIEST RAIN OVER
THE LAST TWO DAYS AND WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE REGION WHERE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IS AT HIGHEST. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
THESE AREAS.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-082>084.
MA...NONE.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
000
FXUS61 KBTV 231424
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1024 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL EXIST WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS...AND FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE A CONCERN AS STORMS WILL MOVE IN SUCH A WAY AS TO INCREASE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN A SMALL AREA AND HELP TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.
EXPECT MORE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER NEW ENGLAND. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED AS WELL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1024 AM EDT THURSDAY...MINOR UPDATES TO POPS AND
TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PRIMARY ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO RAISE POPS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA PER LATEST
RADAR RETURNS...AND TO LOWER MAX TEMPS BY 2-3 DEGREES AS GREATER
DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT INSOLATION A BIT MORESO THAN
EARLIER INDICATIONS. REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.
PRIOR DISCUSSION...
JUST DEALING WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE BETTER DYNAMIC SUPPORT EXISTS AHEAD
OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD TO THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEY AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES EXIST OVER THE AREA...THUS HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL EXIST
WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS AND MORE IMPORTANTLY...THE FLOW PATTERN
WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE TRAINING OF CELLS. THIS COMBINED WITH
RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL EXIST. WILL BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AS A RESULT FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD TO THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. WATCH WILL RUN FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH
8AM FRIDAY. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING EXISTED ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT IN THIS CASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS SUGGESTS
MORE AREAS COULD BE AFFECTED BY FLASH FLOODING. ONE LAST ITEM THAT
WILL EXIST IS SOME OF THE STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
WILL INCLUDE THIS WORDING IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT THURSDAY...POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
EXIST THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY WITH TONIGHT BEING FAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR
REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND THE TRAINING OF CELLS OVER THE SAME AREA
WILL HELP KEEP THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING GOING TONIGHT. CAN
EASILY SEE 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL RATES AN HOUR THAT COULD EASILY
CAUSE PROBLEMS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS WILL SHIFT
FROM FLASH FLOODING EARLY FRIDAY TO POTENTIAL FLOODING ON RIVERS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WANT TO BECOME CUT OFF
OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS OVER THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD AND
CONTINUE TO POTENTIALLY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. SITUATION WILL HAVE TO
BE CLOSELY MONITORED ONCE WE GET THROUGH THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW TRYING TO CUT OFF
OVER THE AREA...WE ARE NO LOOKING AT BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER VERMONT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EXPECT
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND WITH THE PRECIPITATION...LOOKING AT BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THUS LOOKING AT THE
THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. THIS UNFORTUNATELY MEANS A COOLER AND WETTER
START TO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND MARATHONERS WILL WANT TO PAY
CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST GIVEN THE TREND TOWARD COOLER AND
WETTER WEATHER ON SUNDAY. EVENTUALLY THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
IN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL DEVELOP
ACRS OUR TAF SITES TODAY...WITH MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR LIKELY IN
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS. CRNT RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING FROM SW TO NE ACRS WESTERN/NORTHERN NY ATTM...WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...LOW STRATUS WITH IFR AT MPV WL
DISSIPATE BTWN 12Z-14Z TODAY. CHCS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WL INCREASE
AFT 15Z...WITH BEST CHC OF IFR CONDITIONS BTWN 17Z-21Z...WHEN
INSTABILITY IS THE GREATEST. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WL CONT INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING WITH
AREAS OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WL BE
LIKELY AT MPV/SLK/PBG WITH MVFR AT MSS/RUT/BTV. ALSO...BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNTS
TODAY...WL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SFC
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRES WL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE TAF SITES
THRU THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS WL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WL DEVELOP AS SFC LOW PRES
TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. A SLOW CLRING TREND IS
ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 415 AM THURSDAY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXISTS FROM NOON TODAY
UNTIL 8AM FRIDAY FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD TO THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. WATCH FOR MULTIPLE STORMS TO TRACK OVER
THE SAME AREA AND COMBINED WITH RAINFALL RATES AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR...FLASH FLOODING MAY RESULT. THE THREAT WILL
TRANSITION ON FRIDAY FROM FLASH FLOODING TO POTENTIAL RIVER
FLOODING AS MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR VTZ001>012-
016>019.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NYZ028>031-034-
035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...TABER
HYDROLOGY...BTV
000
FXUS61 KALY 231150
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
750 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND STALL ALONG
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE...
INTENSIFY AND LINGER ON THIS FRONT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES MEMORIAL DAY AND DRIFT OVER OUR REGION INTO MIDWEEK.
THE PERIOD WILL START WARM AND HUMID WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND
SHOWERS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OVER EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS STILL MAINLY WEST OF THE REGION...AND MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS...AND EVENTUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. ADDED HEAVY RAIN WITH THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT. SO...OTHER THAN THE MINOR CHANGES TO
RAIN CHANCES AND SKY COVER...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
THROUGH TODAY.
PREV AFD BELOW...
MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS EXITED OR DISSIPATED EARLY THIS MORNING
BUT THERE IS A WEAK LOW LEVEL DEW POINT BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL
NY...POSSIBLY THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION.
ADDITIONAL RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN PA/NY SHOULD
TRACK INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD GET ENHANCED AS IT TRACKS INTO OUR
REGION...AFTER SOME DAYTIME HEATING SINCE WE SHOULD HAVE SOME
PERIODS OF SUN THROUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING TO WARM
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80.
THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS...BUT STILL...SOME ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE
POSSIBLE. THERE MAY BE MORE OF A THREAT FOR SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
AS THE AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...AND WITH
INCREASING UPPER DYNAMICS...AND A TIGHTENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT WITH STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENESIS. ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN THE MOST RAIN IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...WHICH WOULD BE AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY
THROUGH SOUTHERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CURRENT LOW LEVEL DEW POINT BOUNDARY MAY BECOME THE FOCUS FOR THE
ENHANCED CONVECTION LATER TODAY...WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THAT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO JUST AN AREAS OF STEADY
RAIN LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL COOLING GRADUALLY SPREADS
EAST...AND THE STRENGTHENING UPPER FEATURE BEGINS TO CUT OFF AND
TRACK ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOMORROW INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE TREND THAT BEGAN APPEARING IN THE MODEL SUITE TWO DAYS AGO...IS
NOW CONSENSUS FOR THE WEEKEND. 00 UTC GFS/NAM/ECMWF HAVE CDFNT
STALLING ALONG I-95 CORRIDOR BY FRI MORNING. SHARP 500HPA TROF FM
QB TO APPALACHIANS MOVING EAST...AS SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DIVE
SOUTHWARD INTO IT AND CUT IT OFF.
DURING FRI IT CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLC STATES...COASTAL
CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES OFF LONG ISLAND...AND THE SLOWLY DEEPENING SFC
LOW AND THE 500HPA CUT OFF BCMG VERTICAL OFF S NEW ENG COAST
SAT...THEN DRIFT SLOWLY N SUNDAY INTO GULF OF MAINE.
NEEDLESS TO SAY THIS IS GOING TO FEEL MORE LIKE A LATE OCTOBER
WEEKEND IN THE NORTHEAST. DURING FRIDAY -SHRA WILL TRANSITION TO
PERIODS OF RAIN IN ANNA TYPE FRONT BTWN SFC FRONT AND 500HPA AXIS.
AT SAME TIME GRADIENT BETWEEN 1031MB HIGH OVER MIDWEST...AND
DEEPENING SFC LOW OFF LONG ISLAND WILL RESULT IN A 14MB WIND
GRADIENT ACROSS NYS FRI & SAT. N WINDS WILL INCR TO 10-20 MPH AND
RESULT WILL BE A RAINY RAW FRI AND SAT.
GFS QPF OF 1-2.5 INCHES...ECMWF 0.75 TO 1.0 FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SAT NT.
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL JUST HOLD STEADY NEAR
MORNING LOWS...BEFORE FALLING DURING FRI AFTN IN STRONG CAA. THEY
WILL FALL FURTHER FRI NT INTO THE 40S WITH 30S IN WESTERN
PERIPHERY. SAT HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S WITH CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF RAIN. MAX MIN TEMPS IN GUIDANCE ARE PROBABLY NOT
MUCH USE...AS ALOT OF NON-DIURNAL EFFECTS GOING ON FRI INTO SAT.
WILL USE 3 HOURLIES AND LET MAX/MINS FALL OUT.
OF NOTE IS THAT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PCPN/CLOUDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE A VERY SHARP TRANSITION...SOMEWHERE ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF FCA. PCPN COULD BE SPOTTY OR NON-EXISTENT ALONG W
EDGE OF FCA...AND THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF THINNING CLOUDS WHICH
WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO NR FREEZING DURING MORNINGS.
SUN THE VERTICAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT THROUGH THE GULF
OF MAINE...INTO THE MARITIMES SUN NT. THE GFS HAS CLOUDS AND -SHRA
DIM SUNDAY WITH INCRG SUN ALONG W PRTNS OF FCA. THE ECMWF KEEPS IT
CLOUDY AND WET INTO SUN EVENING. THE O6UTC NAM/GFS ARE A TAD MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAS CLOUDS AND RAIN ONLY FM HUD
VLY EAST SAT...AND THE SYSTEM CLEARLY EXITING REGION SAT NT.
FOR NOW FCST REFLECTS 00UTC MODEL SUITE TIMING...WITH SKIES FINALLY
CLEARING SUN NT ACROSS FCA AS 500HPA RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE GRTLKS
AND SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO E GRTLKS. BUT IF THE EMERGING TREND
CONTINUES ON LATER RUNS...CONDITIONS MIGHT NOTICEABLE IMPROVE
ACROSS FCA FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER A SOGGY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE CUTOFF AND SFC SYSTEM DEPART
AS RIDGE AT 500HPA BUILDS INTO GRTLKS AND SFC HIGH BUILDS FROM
GRTLKS TO CAROLINAS MONDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL SHIFT EAST AS LARGE
500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS OVER E USA AND SFC HIGH SETTLES OFF THE EAST
COAST. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NR NORMAL MONDAY..AND BUILD UPWARD
INTO THE WEEK. FCA IN WAA REGIME THROUGHOUT. THE GFS BRINGS A
WMFNT AND CHC -SHRA/TSTMS LATE TUES AND WED...WHILE ECMWF KEEPS IT
DRY INTO THU. ONLY 6 MEMBERS OF THE GEFS ARE IN LINE WITH THE
OPERATIONAL RUN PCPN WED...THE REST OF THEIR PLUMES ARE FLAT
LINED. WPC HOLDS PCPN OFF TILL END OF EFP ON THUR. SO FOR NOW WILL
HAVE A FAIR WARM EFP...WITH A VERY NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND TO ABV
NORMAL TEMPS. WILL POPULATE WITH WPC FROM MIDNIGHT SHIFT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LINGERING FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AT KPOU AND PSF
THIS MORNING WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
OVER EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD LAST TO AROUND
16Z...WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AND APPROACH
THE TAF SITES. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS KGFL WHERE A FEW SHOWERS MAY
IMPACT THE TERMINAL BTWN 12Z-14Z.
SINCE CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WELL WEST...AND
THE TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT AND TRACKING OF THUNDERSTORMS IS SO
UNCERTAIN...JUST PUTTING GENERIC VCTS AT ALL SITES BETWEEN 16Z AND
22Z...AS MORE SPECIFIC TIMING WILL BE PROVIDED IN LATER TAF
ISSUANCES. STEADIER RAIN AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE AROUND THE
AIRPORTS BY 22Z-24Z...SO LOWERED CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES TO
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS FOR THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. AGAIN...UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EVOLVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO JUST INDICATING
SHOWERS. LATER TAF ISSUANCES WILL ADDRESS THE THUNDERSTORM TIMING.
WINDS ARE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 15 KT EARLY THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY. WINDS SHOULD TREND TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT-MON...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO SUNDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN...MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND ONLY 60-80 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...TURNING NORTH
FRIDAY AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH. .
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ECMWF AND GFS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL INTO CWA
INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS PRODUCE
2.50 TO 5.0 INCHES OF RAIN IN CWA INTO SUNDAY. GEFS SHOW AVERAGE
OF 2.0 INCHES THROUGH WEEKEND WITH 8 MEMBERS PUSHING IN EXCESS OF
3.5 INCHES.
FIRST CHALLENGE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL COME WITH TODAYS SLOWLY MOVING
FRONT. EASTERN CWA AND CENTRAL CWA HAVE SEEN HEAVIEST RAIN OVER
THE LAST TWO DAYS AND WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE REGION WHERE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IS AT HIGHEST. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
THESE AREAS.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-082>084.
MA...NONE.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
000
FXUS61 KBTV 231137
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
737 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL EXIST WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS...AND FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE A CONCERN AS STORMS WILL MOVE IN SUCH A WAY AS TO INCREASE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN A SMALL AREA AND HELP TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.
EXPECT MORE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER NEW ENGLAND. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED AS WELL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 737 AM EDT THURSDAY...JUST DEALING WITH SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE
BETTER DYNAMIC SUPPORT EXISTS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.
HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS FROM THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD TO THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXIST
OVER THE AREA...THUS HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL EXIST WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS AND MORE IMPORTANTLY...THE FLOW PATTERN WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR THE TRAINING OF CELLS. THIS COMBINED WITH RAINFALL
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING WILL EXIST. WILL BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS A
RESULT FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD TO THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEY. WATCH WILL RUN FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 8AM FRIDAY.
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING EXISTED ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
IN THIS CASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS SUGGESTS MORE AREAS
COULD BE AFFECTED BY FLASH FLOODING. ONE LAST ITEM THAT WILL EXIST
IS SOME OF THE STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND WILL
INCLUDE THIS WORDING IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT THURSDAY...POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
EXIST THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY WITH TONIGHT BEING FAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR
REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND THE TRAINING OF CELLS OVER THE SAME AREA
WILL HELP KEEP THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING GOING TONIGHT. CAN
EASILY SEE 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL RATES AN HOUR THAT COULD EASILY
CAUSE PROBLEMS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS WILL SHIFT
FROM FLASH FLOODING EARLY FRIDAY TO POTENTIAL FLOODING ON RIVERS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WANT TO BECOME CUT OFF
OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS OVER THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD AND
CONTINUE TO POTENTIALLY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. SITUATION WILL HAVE TO
BE CLOSELY MONITORED ONCE WE GET THROUGH THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW TRYING TO CUT OFF
OVER THE AREA...WE ARE NO LOOKING AT BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER VERMONT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EXPECT
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND WITH THE PRECIPITATION...LOOKING AT BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THUS LOOKING AT THE
THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. THIS UNFORTUNATELY MEANS A COOLER AND WETTER
START TO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND MARATHONERS WILL WANT TO PAY
CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST GIVEN THE TREND TOWARD COOLER AND
WETTER WEATHER ON SUNDAY. EVENTUALLY THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
IN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL DEVELOP
ACRS OUR TAF SITES TODAY...WITH MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR LIKELY IN
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS. CRNT RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING FROM SW TO NE ACRS WESTERN/NORTHERN NY ATTM...WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...LOW STRATUS WITH IFR AT MPV WL
DISSIPATE BTWN 12Z-14Z TODAY. CHCS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WL INCREASE
AFT 15Z...WITH BEST CHC OF IFR CONDITIONS BTWN 17Z-21Z...WHEN
INSTABILITY IS THE GREATEST. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WL CONT INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING WITH
AREAS OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WL BE
LIKELY AT MPV/SLK/PBG WITH MVFR AT MSS/RUT/BTV. ALSO...BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNTS
TODAY...WL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SFC
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRES WL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE TAF SITES
THRU THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS WL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WL DEVELOP AS SFC LOW PRES
TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. A SLOW CLRING TREND IS
ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 415 AM THURSDAY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXISTS FROM NOON TODAY
UNTIL 8AM FRIDAY FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD TO THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. WATCH FOR MULTIPLE STORMS TO TRACK OVER
THE SAME AREA AND COMBINED WITH RAINFALL RATES AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR...FLASH FLOODING MAY RESULT. THE THREAT WILL
TRANSITION ON FRIDAY FROM FLASH FLOODING TO POTENTIAL RIVER
FLOODING AS MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR NYZ028>031-034-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...TABER
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON
000
FXUS61 KBTV 231134
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
734 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL EXIST WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS...AND FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE A CONCERN AS STORMS WILL MOVE IN SUCH A WAY AS TO INCREASE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN A SMALL AREA AND HELP TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.
EXPECT MORE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER NEW ENGLAND. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED AS WELL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT THURSDAY...JUST DEALING WITH SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE
BETTER DYNAMIC SUPPORT EXISTS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.
HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS FROM THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD TO THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXIST
OVER THE AREA...THUS HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL EXIST WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS AND MORE IMPORTANTLY...THE FLOW PATTERN WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR THE TRAINING OF CELLS. THIS COMBINED WITH RAINFALL
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING WILL EXIST. WILL BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS A
RESULT FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD TO THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEY. WATCH WILL RUN FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 8AM FRIDAY.
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING EXISTED ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
IN THIS CASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS SUGGESTS MORE AREAS
COULD BE AFFECTED BY FLASH FLOODING. ONE LAST ITEM THAT WILL EXIST
IS SOME OF THE STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND WILL
INCLUDE THIS WORDING IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT THURSDAY...POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
EXIST THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY WITH TONIGHT BEING FAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR
REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND THE TRAINING OF CELLS OVER THE SAME AREA
WILL HELP KEEP THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING GOING TONIGHT. CAN
EASILY SEE 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL RATES AN HOUR THAT COULD EASILY
CAUSE PROBLEMS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS WILL SHIFT
FROM FLASH FLOODING EARLY FRIDAY TO POTENTIAL FLOODING ON RIVERS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WANT TO BECOME CUT OFF
OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS OVER THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD AND
CONTINUE TO POTENTIALLY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. SITUATION WILL HAVE TO
BE CLOSELY MONITORED ONCE WE GET THROUGH THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW TRYING TO CUT OFF
OVER THE AREA...WE ARE NO LOOKING AT BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER VERMONT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EXPECT
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND WITH THE PRECIPITATION...LOOKING AT BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THUS LOOKING AT THE
THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. THIS UNFORTUNATELY MEANS A COOLER AND WETTER
START TO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND MARATHONERS WILL WANT TO PAY
CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST GIVEN THE TREND TOWARD COOLER AND
WETTER WEATHER ON SUNDAY. EVENTUALLY THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
IN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL DEVELOP
ACRS OUR TAF SITES TODAY...WITH MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR LIKELY IN
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS. CRNT RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING FROM SW TO NE ACRS WESTERN/NORTHERN NY ATTM...WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...LOW STRATUS WITH IFR AT MPV WL
DISSIPATE BTWN 12Z-14Z TODAY. CHCS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WL INCREASE
AFT 15Z...WITH BEST CHC OF IFR CONDITIONS BTWN 17Z-21Z...WHEN
INSTABILITY IS THE GREATEST. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WL CONT INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING WITH
AREAS OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WL BE
LIKELY AT MPV/SLK/PBG WITH MVFR AT MSS/RUT/BTV. ALSO...BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNTS
TODAY...WL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SFC
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRES WL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE TAF SITES
THRU THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS WL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WL DEVELOP AS SFC LOW PRES
TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. A SLOW CLRING TREND IS
ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 415 AM THURSDAY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXISTS FROM NOON TODAY
UNTIL 8AM FRIDAY FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD TO THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. WATCH FOR MULTIPLE STORMS TO TRACK OVER
THE SAME AREA AND COMBINED WITH RAINFALL RATES AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR...FLASH FLOODING MAY RESULT. THE THREAT WILL
TRANSITION ON FRIDAY FROM FLASH FLOODING TO POTENTIAL RIVER
FLOODING AS MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR NYZ028>031-034-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...TABER
HYDROLOGY...
000
FXUS61 KALY 231016
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND STALL
ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE...INTENSIFY
AND LINGER ON THIS FRONT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
MEMORIAL DAY AND DRIFT OVER OUR REGION INTO MIDWEEK.
THE PERIOD WILL START WARM AND HUMID WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND
SHOWERS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OVER EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS STILL MAINLY WEST OF THE REGION...AND MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS...AND EVENTUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. ADDED HEAVY RAIN WITH THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT. SO...OTHER THAN THE MINOR CHANGES TO
RAIN CHANCES AND SKY COVER...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
THROUGH TODAY.
PREV AFD BELOW...
MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS EXITED OR DISSIPATED EARLY THIS MORNING
BUT THERE IS A WEAK LOW LEVEL DEW POINT BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL
NY...POSSIBLY THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION.
ADDITIONAL RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN PA/NY SHOULD
TRACK INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD GET ENHANCED AS IT TRACKS INTO OUR
REGION...AFTER SOME DAYTIME HEATING SINCE WE SHOULD HAVE SOME
PERIODS OF SUN THROUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING TO WARM
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80.
THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS...BUT STILL...SOME ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE
POSSIBLE. THERE MAY BE MORE OF A THREAT FOR SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
AS THE AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...AND WITH
INCREASING UPPER DYNAMICS...AND A TIGHTENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT WITH STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENESIS. ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN THE MOST RAIN IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...WHICH WOULD BE AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY
THROUGH SOUTHERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CURRENT LOW LEVEL DEW POINT BOUNDARY MAY BECOME THE FOCUS FOR THE
ENHANCED CONVECTION LATER TODAY...WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THAT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO JUST AN AREAS OF STEADY
RAIN LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL COOLING GRADUALLY SPREADS
EAST...AND THE STRENGTHENING UPPER FEATURE BEGINS TO CUT OFF AND
TRACK ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOMORROW INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE TREND THAT BEGAN APPEARING IN THE MODEL SUITE TWO DAYS AGO...IS
NOW CONSENSUS FOR THE WEEKEND. OOUTC GFS/NAM/ECMWF HAVE CDFNT
STALLING ALONG I-95 CORRIDOR BY FRI MORNING. SHARP 500HPA TROF FM
QB TO APPALACHIANS MOVING EAST...AS SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DIVE
SOUTHWARD INTO IT AND CUT IT OFF.
DURING FRI IT CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLC STATES...COASTAL
CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES OFF LONG ISLAND...AND THE SLOWLY DEEPENING SFC
LOW AND THE 500HPA CUT OFF BCMG VERTICAL OFF S NEW ENG COAST
SAT...THEN DRIFT SLOWLY N SUNDAY INTO GULF OF MAINE.
NEEDLESS TO SAY THIS IS GOING TO FEEL MORE LIKE A LATE OCTOBER
WEEKEND IN THE NORTHEAST. DURING FRIDAY -SHRA WILL TRANSITION TO
PERIODS OF RAIN IN ANNA TYPE FRONT BTWN SFC FRONT AND 500HPA AXIS.
AT SAME TIME GRADIENT BETWEEN 1031MB HIGH OVER MIDWEST...AND
DEEPENING SFC LOW OFF LONG ISLAND WILL RESULT IN A 14MB WIND
GRADIENT ACROSS NYS FRI & SAT. N WINDS WILL INCR TO 10-20 MPH AND
RESULT WILL BE A RAINY RAW FRI AND SAT.
GFS QPF OF 1-2.5 INCHES...ECMWF 0.75 TO 1.0 FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SAT NT.
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL JUST HOLD STEADY NEAR
MORNING LOWS...BEFORE FALLING DURING FRI AFTN IN STRONG CAA. THEY
WILL FALL FURTHER FRI NT INTO THE 40S WITH 30S IN WESTERN
PERIPHERY. SAT HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S WITH CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF RAIN. MAX MIN TEMPS IN GUIDANCE ARE PROBABLY NOT
MUCH USE...AS ALOT OF NON-DIURNAL EFFECTS GOING ON FRI INTO SAT.
WILL USE 3 HOURLIES AND LET MAX/MINS FALL OUT.
OF NOTE IS THAT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PCPN/CLOUDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE A VERY SHARP TRANSITION...SOMEWHERE ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF FCA. PCPN COULD BE SPOTTY OR NON-EXISTENT ALONG W
EDGE OF FCA...AND THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF THINNING CLOUDS WHICH
WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO NR FREEZING DURING MORNINGS.
SUN THE VERTICAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT THROUGH THE GULF
OF MAINE...INTO THE MARITIMES SUN NT. THE GFS HAS CLOUDS AND -SHRA
DIM SUNDAY WITH INCRG SUN ALONG W PRTNS OF FCA. THE ECMWF KEEPS IT
CLOUDY AND WET INTO SUN EVENING. THE O6UTC NAM/GFS ARE A TAD MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAS CLOUDS AND RAIN ONLY FM HUD
VLY EAST SAT...AND THE SYSTEM CLEARLY EXITING REGION SAT NT.
FOR NOW FCST REFLECTS 00UTC MODEL SUITE TIMING...WITH SKIES FINALLY
CLEARING SUN NT ACROSS FCA AS 500HPA RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE GRTLKS
AND SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO E GRTLKS. BUT IF THE EMERGING TREND
CONTINUES ON LATER RUNS...CONDITIONS MIGHT NOTICEABLE IMPROVE
ACROSS FCA FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER A SOGGY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE CUTOFF AND SFC SYSTEM DEPART
AS RIDGE AT 500HPA BUILDS INTO GRTLKS AND SFC HIGH BUILDS FROM
GRTLKS TO CAROLINAS MONDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL SHIFT EAST AS LARGE
500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS OVER E USA AND SFC HIGH SETTLES OFF THE EAST
COAST. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NR NORMAL MONDAY..AND BUILD UPWARD
INTO THE WEEK. FCA IN WAA REGIME THROUGHOUT. THE GFS BRINGS A
WMFNT AND CHC -SHRA/TSTMS LATE TUES AND WED...WHILE ECMWF KEEPS IT
DRY INTO THU. ONLY 6 MEMBERS OF THE GEFS ARE IN LINE WITH THE
OPERATIONAL RUN PCPN WED...THE REST OF THEIR PLUMES ARE FLAT
LINED. WPC HOLDS PCPN OFF TILL END OF EFP ON THUR. SO FOR NOW WILL
HAVE A FAIR WARM EFP...WITH A VERY NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND TO ABV
NORMAL TEMPS. WILL POPULATE WITH WPC FROM MIDNIGHT SHIFT.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS OVER FOR THE NIGHT.
SO...WITH VARYING LAYERS OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...MOST AREAS
ARE MVFR/VFR...ALTHOUGH AS ANY LOW CLOUDS BREAK UP...AND MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS THIN TO SOME DEGREE...SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG COULD OCCUR BETWEEN 07Z-11Z. WITH LIGHT WINDS AT KGFL AND
KPOU ...NEAR AREA OF STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE...ACKNOWLEDGED
WIND SHEAR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...UNTIL THE WINDS ALOFT
WEAKEN TOWARD SUNRISE.
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD LINGER BEYOND 11Z...BUT WILL LOOK AT
TRENDS LATER TO SEE IF IT NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED AFTER 12Z. ONCE THE
EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIFT...THERE SHOULD BE MIXED MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPS
ALONG A COLD FRONT. JUST LEAVING THE VCTS AT ALL SITES FOR THE
AFTERNOON UNTIL EVERYTHING DEVELOPS AND MORE SPECIFIC TIMING AND
ASSOCIATED BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS CA BE
ASSESSED.
OUTLOOK...
THU-THU NIGHT...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT-MON...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO SUNDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN...MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND ONLY 60-80 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...TURNING NORTH
FRIDAY AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH. .
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ECMWF AND GFS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL INTO CWA
INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS PRODUCE
2.50 TO 5.0 INCHES OF RAIN IN CWA INTO SUNDAY. GEFS SHOW AVERAGE
OF 2.0 INCHES THROUGH WEEKEND WITH 8 MEMBERS PUSHING IN EXCESS OF
3.5 INCHES.
FIRST CHALLENGE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL COME WITH TODAYS SLOWLY MOVING
FRONT. EASTERN CWA AND CENTRAL CWA HAVE SEEN HEAVIEST RAIN OVER
THE LAST TWO DAYS AND WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE REGION WHERE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IS AT HIGHEST. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
THESE AREAS.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-082>084.
MA...NONE.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
000
FXUS61 KALY 231005
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
605 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND STALL
ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE...INTENSIFY
AND LINGER ON THIS FRONT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
MEMORIAL DAY AND DRIFT OVER OUR REGION INTO MIDWEEK.
THE PERIOD WILL START WARM AND HUMID WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND
SHOWERS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OVER EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS STILL MAINLY WEST OF THE REGION...AND MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS...AND EVENTUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. ADDED HEAVY RAIN WITH THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT. SO...OTHER THAN THE MINOR CHANGES TO
RAIN CHANCES AND SKY COVER...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
THROUGH TODAY.
PREV AFD BELOW...
MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS EXITED OR DISSIPATED EARLY THIS MORNING
BUT THERE IS A WEAK LOW LEVEL DEWPOINT BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL
NY...POSSIBLY THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION.
ADDITIONAL RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN PA/NY SHOULD
TRACK INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD GET ENHANCED AS IT TRACKS INTO OUR
REGION...AFTER SOME DAYTIME HEATING SINCE WE SHOULD HAVE SOME
PERIODS OF SUN THROUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING TO WARM
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80.
THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS...BUT STILL...SOME ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE
POSSIBLE. THERE MAY BE MORE OF A THREAT FOR SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
AS THE AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...AND WITH
INCREASING UPPER DYNAMICS...AND A TIGHTENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT WITH STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENESIS. ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN THE MOST RAIN IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...WHICH WOULD BE AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY
THROUGH SOUTHERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CURRENT LOW LEVEL DEW POINT BOUNDARY MAY BECOME THE FOCUS FOR THE
ENHANCED CONVECTION LATER TODAY...WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THAT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO JUST AN AREAS OF STEADY
RAIN LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL COOLING GRADUALLY SPREADS
EAST...AND THE STRENGTHENING UPPER FEATURE BEGINS TO CUT OFF AND
TRACK ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOMORROW INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE TREND THAT BEGAN APPEARING IN THE MODEL SUITE TWO DAYS AGO...IS
NOW CONSENSUS FOR THE WEEKEND. GFS/NAM/12UTC ECMWF HAVE CDFNT
STALLING ALONG I-95 CORRIDOR BY FRI MORNING. SHARP 500HPA TROF FM
QB TO APPALACHIANS MOVING EAST...AS SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DIVE
SOUTHWARD INTO IT AND CUT IT OFF.
DURING FRI IT CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLC STATES...COASTAL
CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES OFF LONG ISLAND...AND THE SLOWLY DEEPENING SFC
LOW AND THE 500HPA CUT OFF BCM VERTICAL OFF S NEW ENG COAST
SAT...THEN DRIFT SLOWLY N SUNDAY INTO GULF OF MAINE.
NEEDLESS TO SAY THIS IS GOING TO FEEL MORE LIKE A LATE OCTOBER
WEEKEND IN THE NORTHEAST. DURING FRIDAY -SHRA WILL TRANSITION TO
PERIODS OF RAIN IN ANNA TYPE FRONT BTWN SFC FRONT AND 500HPA AXIS.
AT SAME TIME GRADIENT BETWEEN 1031MB HIGH OVER MIDWEST...AND
DEEPENING SFC LOW OFF LONG ISLAND WILL RESULT IN A 14MB WIND
GRADIENT ACROSS NYS FRI & SAT. N WINDS WILL INCR TO 10-20 MPH AND
RESULT WILL BE A RAINY RAW FRI AND SAT.
GFS QPF OF 1-2.5 INCHES...ECMWF 0.75 TO 1.0 FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SAT NT.
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL JUST HOLD STEADY NEAR
MORNING LOWS...BEFORE FALLING DURING FRI AFTN IN STRONG CAA. THEY
WILL FALL FURTHER FRI NT INTO THE 40S WITH 30S IN WESTERN
PERIPHERY. SAT HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S WITH CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF RAIN. MAX MIN TEMPS IN GUIDANCE ARE PROBABLY NOT
MUCH USE...AS ALOT OF NON-DIURNAL EFFECTS GOING ON FRI INTO SAT.
WILL USE 3 HOURLYS AND LET MAX/MINS FALL OUT.
OF NOTE IS THAT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PCPN/CLOUDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE A VERY SHARP TRANSITION...SOMEWHERE ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF FCA. PCPN COULD BE SPOTTY OR NON-EXISTENT ALONG W
EDGE OF FCA...AND THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF THINNING CLOUDS WHICH
WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO NR FREEZING DURING MORNINGS.
SUN THE VERTICAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT THROUGH THE GULF
OF MAINE...INTO THE MARITIMES SUN NT. THE GFS HAS CLOUDS AND -SHRA
DIM SUNDAY WITH INCRG SUN ALONG W PRTNS OF FCA. THE ECMWF KEEPS IT
CLOUDS AND WET INTO SUN EVENING. SKIES WILL FINALLY CLEAR SUN NT
ACROSS FCA AS 500HPA RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE GRTLKS AND SFC HIGH
BUILDS INTO E GRTLKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER A SOGGY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE CUTOFF AND SFC SYSTEM DEPART
AS RIDGE AT 500HPA BUILDS INTO GRTLKS AND SFC HIGH BUILDS FROM
GRTLKS TO CAROLINAS MONDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL SHIFT EAST AS LARGE
500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS OVER E USA AND SFC HIGH SETTLES OFF THE EAST
COAST. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NR NORMAL MONDAY..AND BUILD UPWARD
INTO THE WEEK. FCA IN WAA REGIME THROUGHOUT. THE GFS BRINGS A
WMFNT AND CHC -SHRA/TSTMS LATE TUES AND WED...WHILE ECMWF KEEPS IT
DRY INTO THU. ONLY 6 MEMBERS OF THE GEFS ARE IN LINE WITH THE
OPERATIONAL RUN PCPN WED...THE REST OF THEIR PLUMES ARE FLAT
LINED. WPC HOLDS PCPN OFF TILL END OF EFP ON THUR. SO FOR NOW WILL
HAVE A FAIR WARM EFP...WITH A VERY NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND TO ABV
NORMAL TEMPS. WILL POPULATE WITH WPC FROM MIDNIGHT SHIFT.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS OVER FOR THE NIGHT.
SO...WITH VARYING LAYERS OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...MOST AREAS
ARE MVFR/VFR...ALTHOUGH AS ANY LOW CLOUDS BREAK UP...AND MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS THIN TO SOME DEGREE...SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG COULD OCCUR BETWEEN 07Z-11Z. WITH LIGHT WINDS AT KGFL AND
KPOU ...NEAR AREA OF STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE...ACKNOWLEDGED
WIND SHEAR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...UNTIL THE WINDS ALOFT
WEAKEN TOWARD SUNRISE.
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD LINGER BEYOND 11Z...BUT WILL LOOK AT
TRENDS LATER TO SEE IF IT NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED AFTER 12Z. ONCE THE
EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIFT...THERE SHOULD BE MIXED MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPS
ALONG A COLD FRONT. JUST LEAVING THE VCTS AT ALL SITES FOR THE
AFTERNOON UNTIL EVERYTHING DEVELOPS AND MORE SPECIFIC TIMING AND
ASSOCIATED BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS CA BE
ASSESSED.
OUTLOOK...
THU-THU NIGHT...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT-MON...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO SUNDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN...MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND ONLY 60-80 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...TURNING NORTH
FRIDAY AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH. .
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ECMWF AND GFS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL INTO CWA
INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS PRODUCE
2.50 TO 5.0 INCHES OF RAIN IN CWA INTO SUNDAY. GEFS SHOW AVERAGE
OF 2.0 INCHES THROUGH WEEKEND WITH 8 MEMBERS PUSHING IN EXCESS OF
3.5 INCHES.
FIRST CHALLENGE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL COME WITH TODAYS SLOWLY MOVING
FRONT. EASTERN CWA AND CENTRAL CWA HAVE SEEN HEAVIEST RAIN OVER
THE LAST TWO DAYS AND WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE REGION WHERE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IS AT HIGHEST. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
THESE AREAS.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-082>084.
MA...NONE.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...OKEEFE
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
000
FXUS61 KBTV 230815
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
415 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL EXIST WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS...AND FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE A CONCERN AS STORMS WILL MOVE IN SUCH A WAY AS TO INCREASE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN A SMALL AREA AND HELP TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.
EXPECT MORE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER NEW ENGLAND. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED AS WELL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT THURSDAY...JUST DEALING WITH SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE
BETTER DYNAMIC SUPPORT EXISTS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.
HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS FROM THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD TO THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXIST
OVER THE AREA...THUS HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL EXIST WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS AND MORE IMPORTANTLY...THE FLOW PATTERN WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR THE TRAINING OF CELLS. THIS COMBINED WITH RAINFALL
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING WILL EXIST. WILL BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS A
RESULT FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD TO THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEY. WATCH WILL RUN FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 8AM FRIDAY.
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING EXISTED ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
IN THIS CASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS SUGGESTS MORE AREAS
COULD BE AFFECTED BY FLASH FLOODING. ONE LAST ITEM THAT WILL EXIST
IS SOME OF THE STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND WILL
INCLUDE THIS WORDING IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT THURSDAY...POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
EXIST THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY WITH TONIGHT BEING FAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR
REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND THE TRAINING OF CELLS OVER THE SAME AREA
WILL HELP KEEP THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING GOING TONIGHT. CAN
EASILY SEE 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL RATES AN HOUR THAT COULD EASILY
CAUSE PROBLEMS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS WILL SHIFT
FROM FLASH FLOODING EARLY FRIDAY TO POTENTIAL FLOODING ON RIVERS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WANT TO BECOME CUT OFF
OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS OVER THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD AND
CONTINUE TO POTENTIALLY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. SITUATION WILL HAVE TO
BE CLOSELY MONITORED ONCE WE GET THROUGH THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW TRYING TO CUT OFF
OVER THE AREA...WE ARE NO LOOKING AT BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER VERMONT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EXPECT
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND WITH THE PRECIPITATION...LOOKING AT BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THUS LOOKING AT THE
THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. THIS UNFORTUNATELY MEANS A COOLER AND WETTER
START TO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND MARATHONERS WILL WANT TO PAY
CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST GIVEN THE TREND TOWARD COOLER AND
WETTER WEATHER ON SUNDAY. EVENTUALLY THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
IN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS RANGING FROM
VFR TO IFR...WITH LOWEST CIGS EXPECTED AT MPV. LOWEST VSBYS
OCCURRING IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS...WHICH WILL TAPER OFF A
BIT AFTER 09Z. POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS 40 KTS IN TSRA AT
MPV. DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT. FROPA IS EXPECTED AT MSS AROUND 21Z BUT NOT AT RUT/MPV TILL
NEAR 06Z FRIDAY. PREVAILING CONDITIONS MVFR THURSDAY PM/EVENING...
LOWERING TO IFR IN HEAVIER PCPN. WINDS SOUTH 10-20 KTS AHEAD OF
FRONT...SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AFTER FROPA. GUSTS 40 KTS POSSIBLE
IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UNSETTLED WX WITH OCCASIONAL
RAIN WILL CONTINUE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. PREVAILING
MVFR LOWERING AT TIMES TO IFR. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT MORE
WET WEATHER WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL IFR MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DUE
COASTAL LOW. IMPROVEMENT MONDAY AS LOW DEPARTS AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 415 AM THURSDAY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXISTS FROM NOON TODAY
UNTIL 8AM FRIDAY FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD TO THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. WATCH FOR MULTIPLE STORMS TO TRACK OVER
THE SAME AREA AND COMBINED WITH RAINFALL RATES AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR...FLASH FLOODING MAY RESULT. THE THREAT WILL
TRANSITION ON FRIDAY FROM FLASH FLOODING TO POTENTIAL RIVER
FLOODING AS MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR NYZ028>031-034-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...RJS
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON
000
FXUS61 KALY 230731
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
331 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND STALL
ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE...INTENSIFY
AND LINGER ON THIS FRONT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
MEMORIAL DAY AND DRIFT OVER OUR REGION INTO MIDWEEK.
THE PERIOD WILL START WARM AND HUMID WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND
SHOWERS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS EXITED OR DISSIPATED EARLY THIS MORNING
...BUT THERE IS A WEAK LOW LEVEL DEWPOINT BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL
NY...POSSIBLY THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION.
ADDITIONAL RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN PA/NY SHOULD
TRACK INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD GET ENHANCED AS IT TRACKS INTO OUR
REGION...AFTER SOME DAYTIME HEATING SINCE WE SHOULD HAVE SOME
PERIODS OF SUN THROUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING TO WARM
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80.
THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS...BUT STILL...SOME ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE
POSSIBLE. THERE MAY BE MORE OF A THREAT FOR SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
AS THE AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION...AND WITH
INCREASING UPPER DYNAMICS...AND A TIGHTENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT WITH STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENESIS. ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN THE MOST RAIN IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...WHICH WOULD BE AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY
THROUGH SOUTHERN VERMONT...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE
CURRENT LOW LEVEL DEW POINT BOUNDARY MAY BECOME THE FOCUS FOR THE
ENHANCED CONVECTION LATER TODAY...WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THAT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO JUST AN AREAS OF STEADY
RAIN LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL COOLING GRADUALLY SPREADS
EAST...AND THE STRENGTHENING UPPER FEATURE BEGINS TO CUT OFF AND
TRACK ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST TOMORROW INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE TREND THAT BEGAN APPEARING IN THE MODEL SUITE TWO DAYS AGO...IS
NOW CONSENSUS FOR THE WEEKEND. GFS/NAM/12UTC ECMWF HAVE CDFNT
STALLING ALONG I-95 CORRIDOR BY FRI MORNING. SHARP 500HPA TROF FM
QB TO APPALACHIANS MOVING EAST...AS SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DIVE
SOUTHWARD INTO IT AND CUT IT OFF.
DURING FRI IT CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLC STATES...COASTAL
CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES OFF LONG ISLAND...AND THE SLOWLY DEEPENING SFC
LOW AND THE 500HPA CUT OFF BCM VERTICAL OFF S NEW ENG COAST
SAT...THEN DRIFT SLOWLY N SUNDAY INTO GULF OF MAINE.
NEEDLESS TO SAY THIS IS GOING TO FEEL MORE LIKE A LATE OCTOBER
WEEKEND IN THE NORTHEAST. DURING FRIDAY -SHRA WILL TRANSITION TO
PERIODS OF RAIN IN ANNA TYPE FRONT BTWN SFC FRONT AND 500HPA AXIS.
AT SAME TIME GRADIENT BETWEEN 1031MB HIGH OVER MIDWEST...AND
DEEPENING SFC LOW OFF LONG ISLAND WILL RESULT IN A 14MB WIND
GRADIENT ACROSS NYS FRI & SAT. N WINDS WILL INCR TO 10-20 MPH AND
RESULT WILL BE A RAINY RAW FRI AND SAT.
GFS QPF OF 1-2.5 INCHES...ECMWF 0.75 TO 1.0 FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SAT NT.
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL JUST HOLD STEADY NEAR
MORNING LOWS...BEFORE FALLING DURING FRI AFTN IN STRONG CAA. THEY
WILL FALL FURTHER FRI NT INTO THE 40S WITH 30S IN WESTERN
PERIPHERY. SAT HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S WITH CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF RAIN. MAX MIN TEMPS IN GUIDANCE ARE PROBABLY NOT
MUCH USE...AS ALOT OF NON-DIURNAL EFFECTS GOING ON FRI INTO SAT.
WILL USE 3 HOURLYS AND LET MAX/MINS FALL OUT.
OF NOTE IS THAT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PCPN/CLOUDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE A VERY SHARP TRANSITION...SOMEWHERE ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF FCA. PCPN COULD BE SPOTTY OR NON-EXISTENT ALONG W
EDGE OF FCA...AND THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF THINNING CLOUDS WHICH
WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO NR FREEZING DURING MORNINGS.
SUN THE VERTICAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT THROUGH THE GULF
OF MAINE...INTO THE MARITIMES SUN NT. THE GFS HAS CLOUDS AND -SHRA
DIM SUNDAY WITH INCRG SUN ALONG W PRTNS OF FCA. THE ECMWF KEEPS IT
CLOUDS AND WET INTO SUN EVENING. SKIES WILL FINALLY CLEAR SUN NT
ACROSS FCA AS 500HPA RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE GRTLKS AND SFC HIGH
BUILDS INTO E GRTLKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER A SOGGY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE CUTOFF AND SFC SYSTEM DEPART
AS RIDGE AT 500HPA BUILDS INTO GRTLKS AND SFC HIGH BUILDS FROM
GRTLKS TO CAROLINAS MONDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL SHIFT EAST AS LARGE
500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS OVER E USA AND SFC HIGH SETTLES OFF THE EAST
COAST. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NR NORMAL MONDAY..AND BUILD UPWARD
INTO THE WEEK. FCA IN WAA REGIME THROUGHOUT. THE GFS BRINGS A
WMFNT AND CHC -SHRA/TSTMS LATE TUES AND WED...WHILE ECMWF KEEPS IT
DRY INTO THU. ONLY 6 MEMBERS OF THE GEFS ARE IN LINE WITH THE
OPERATIONAL RUN PCPN WED...THE REST OF THEIR PLUMES ARE FLAT
LINED. WPC HOLDS PCPN OFF TILL END OF EFP ON THUR. SO FOR NOW WILL
HAVE A FAIR WARM EFP...WITH A VERY NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND TO ABV
NORMAL TEMPS. WILL POPULATE WITH WPC FROM MIDNIGHT SHIFT.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS OVER FOR THE NIGHT.
SO...WITH VARYING LAYERS OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...MOST AREAS
ARE MVFR/VFR...ALTHOUGH AS ANY LOW CLOUDS BREAK UP...AND MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS THIN TO SOME DEGREE...SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG COULD OCCUR BETWEEN 07Z-11Z. WITH LIGHT WINDS AT KGFL AND
KPOU ...NEAR AREA OF STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE...ACKNOWLEDGED
WIND SHEAR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...UNTIL THE WINDS ALOFT
WEAKEN TOWARD SUNRISE.
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD LINGER BEYOND 11Z...BUT WILL LOOK AT
TRENDS LATER TO SEE IF IT NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED AFTER 12Z. ONCE THE
EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIFT...THERE SHOULD BE MIXED MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPS
ALONG A COLD FRONT. JUST LEAVING THE VCTS AT ALL SITES FOR THE
AFTERNOON UNTIL EVERYTHING DEVELOPS AND MORE SPECIFIC TIMING AND
ASSOCIATED BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS CA BE
ASSESSED.
OUTLOOK...
THU-THU NIGHT...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT-MON...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO SUNDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN...MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND ONLY 60-80 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...TURNING NORTH
FRIDAY AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH. .
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ECMWF AND GFS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL INTO CWA
INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS PRODUCE
2.50 TO 5.0 INCHES OF RAIN IN CWA INTO SUNDAY. GEFS SHOW AVERAGE
OF 2.0 INCHES THROUGH WEEKEND WITH 8 MEMBERS PUSHING IN EXCESS OF
3.5 INCHES.
FIRST CHALLENGE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL COME WITH TODAYS SLOWLY MOVING
FRONT. EASTERN CWA AND CENTRAL CWA HAVE SEEN HEAVIEST RAIN OVER
THE LAST TWO DAYS AND WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE REGION WHERE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IS AT HIGHEST. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
THESE AREAS.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-082>084.
MA...NONE.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
000
FXUS61 KBTV 230555
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
155 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED. A SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
BRINGING ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WILL NOT BE RAINING
CONTINUOUSLY...PERIODS OF BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1257 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE
AND ONLY TWEAK WAS TO ADJUST WEATHER BASED ON RADAR. FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...LOOKS LIKE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE
MAIN THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE WESTERN HALF
OF VERMONT. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THESE AREAS WITH THE ENHANCED WORDING
AND KEPT PROBABILITIES IN THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CATEGORIES.
AGAIN REST OF FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE OUR MOST
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AS COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE TILT
500MB TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SEVERAL
BANDS OF SLOW MOVING CONVECTION ALONG/IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT. GIVEN THE SETUP...MOST OF THE NWP QPF LOOKED ON THE LOW
SIDE GIVEN EVOLUTION AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. TRENDED CLOSER
TO HIGHER ECMWF QPF WITH WIDESPREAD 1+" RAINFALL AMTS ACROSS THE
CWA. SOME OF THIS HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND ERN VT. CAN/T RULE OUT LOCALIZED
2" RAINFALL AMTS BEFORE THINGS LIGHTEN UP EARLY FRIDAY. SOME
MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...REFER TO HYDRO SECTION BELOW. HIGHS
THURSDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S. EPISODES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
EXPECTED UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. FRIDAY...LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN SLOW/GRADUAL DRYING FROM NW-SE
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD SEE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE LATE IN THE
DAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD. COOLER TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...STILL NOT A VERY CLEAR CUT FORECAST
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, BUT IT`S LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY
THAT SATURDAY WILL FEATURE SOME RAIN -- AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO
SUNDAY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA THANKS TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. MEMORIAL DAY AND AFTER DOES
LOOK DRY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. DAILY SPECIFICS BELOW:
SATURDAY: DECENT AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS. NAM PUSHES
THE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE OUT THE QUICKEST AND WOULD FEATURE A
PRETTY DRY DAY, WHILE 12Z GFS AND 00Z EURO ARE PRETTY SIMILAR
FEATURING A "BATTEN DOWN THE HATCHES" WET DAY AS THEY HOLD BACK
THE TROF AND LOW THE LONGEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD FEATURE A SLUG
OF HEAVY RAIN, PROBABLY ACROSS VERMONT -- AND THIS COULD RESULT
IN FLOODING ISSUES. 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES ARE A BIT QUICKER, BUT
STILL FEATURE PRECIPITATION FOR THE DAY. GIVEN A BIG OMEGA BLOCK
EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE ATLANTIC, THAT MEANS EVERYTHING WILL
SLOW DOWN. THUS FEEL THE FAST NAM NEEDS TO BE DISCARDED, BUT THE
GFS/EURO COMBO MIGHT BE A LITTLE SLOW. AT THE END OF MY THOUGHT
PROCESS THOUGH, FELT IT NECESSARY TO INCREASE POPS -- WITH THE
BEST CHANCE ACROSS VERMONT WHERE IT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LOW OFF
THE COAST. ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND A LITTLE BIT
OF LIGHT RAIN COULD COME BACK TO THE `DACKS. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS
AND COLD AIR WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL, 50S IN THE VALLEYS AND 40S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. GONNA BE A DAMP/DREARY DAY. ADDING TO THE MISERY WILL BE
SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD GUST UPWARDS
OF 25 MPH. COME SATURDAY NIGHT, COLDER AIR ALOFT COULD RESULT IN
A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW AT ELEVATIONS PRIMARILY ABOVE 2500FT.
SUNDAY: WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE ROTATING BACK
SO THAT I EXPECT CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS. HAVE PLACED LOW CHANCE POPS
BACK TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH HIGHER IN EASTERN VERMONT. NEW
YORK SHOULD REMAIN DRY. BY LATE IN THE DAY, CLOUDS SHOULD BE
BREAKING UP FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL BE CHILLY AND CONTINUED
BREEZY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE ON EITHER SIDE OF 0C.
EVEN IN PERFECTLY SUNNY/DRY CONDITIONS, THIS WOULD ONLY SUPPORT
VALLEY HIGHS ABOUT 60F. WITH CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW,
I SUSPECT LOW 50S WILL BE IT FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 40S IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING AT THE HIGHEST SUMMITS, I`M
EXPECTING A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW. MAYBE ACCUMULATING TO 1" OR SO ON
MANSFIELD BY MID-DAY.
MEMORIAL DAY: GETTING BETTER AND WILL BE THE BEST DAY FOR ALL
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. PERHAPS RESIDUAL CLOUDS EARLY ACROSS THE
EAST, BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY. STILL COOL ALOFT, BUT 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP TO ABOUT 4C, SUPPORTING SURFACE HIGHS ABOUT 10F
WARMER THAN SUNDAY. LOTS OF LOW-MID 60S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
UPPER 50S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
DO NEED TO NOTE THAT THE 12Z EURO IS JUST COMING IN, AND IT
SUGGESTS AN EVEN SLOWER MOVE OUT OF THE TROUGH AND UPPER LOW. IN
FACT, IF THAT MODEL FORECAST ENDS UP PERFECT, THEN EVEN MONDAY
WILL BE CLOUDY/COOL/SOME RAIN -- VERY MUCH LIKE SUNDAY.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS IN, ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. EACH DAY SHOULD FEATURE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
TO 7 WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE -- SO SHOULD BE SOME NICE DAYS
(AGAIN ASSUMING THINGS DONT COME TO A COMPLETE STANDSTILL AND
KEEP US SMACK IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TROUGH).
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS RANGING FROM
VFR TO IFR...WITH LOWEST CIGS EXPECTED AT MPV. LOWEST VSBYS
OCCURRING IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS...WHICH WILL TAPER OFF A
BIT AFTER 09Z. POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS 40 KTS IN TSRA AT
MPV. DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT. FROPA IS EXPECTED AT MSS AROUND 21Z BUT NOT AT RUT/MPV TILL
NEAR 06Z FRIDAY. PREVAILING CONDITIONS MVFR THURSDAY PM/EVENING...
LOWERING TO IFR IN HEAVIER PCPN. WINDS SOUTH 10-20 KTS AHEAD OF
FRONT...SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AFTER FROPA. GUSTS 40 KTS POSSIBLE
IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UNSETTLED WX WITH OCCASIONAL
RAIN WILL CONTINUE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. PREVAILING
MVFR LOWERING AT TIMES TO IFR. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT MORE
WET WEATHER WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL IFR MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DUE
COASTAL LOW. IMPROVEMENT MONDAY AS LOW DEPARTS AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
350 PM WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD 1.0" TO 1.5" RAINFALL (WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS) HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE
PAST 24-30 HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL EPISODES OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. AN ADDITIONAL 1-2" RAINFALL IS FORECAST
BETWEEN LATE AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ON THURSDAY. WHILE ANTECEDENT
SOIL CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN DRY...AND VEGETATION IS FULLY
ACTIVE...THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STREET/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. ASSOCIATED MINOR
FLOODING WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. MAIN-STEM RIVER FLOODING IS NOT FORECAST...BUT
MAY NEED TO WATCH SOME OF THE SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS THAT
COULD LOCALLY EXCEED BANKFULL LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...RJS
HYDROLOGY...
000
FXUS61 KALY 230543
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
143 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND STALL
ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE...INTENSIFY
AND LINGER ON THIS FRONT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
MEMORIAL DAY AND DRIFT OVER OUR REGION INTO MIDWEEK.
THE PERIOD WILL START WARM AND HUMID WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND
SHOWERS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS N NYS...CROSSING OUR NORTHERN
MOST COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY IS HEALTHY...BUT NOT SEVERE. FURTHER
SOUTH AND AREA OF SHRA WILL MOVE ACROSS MHWK VLY CAPITAL DISTRICT.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. ITS IMPACTS IN GRIDS
WERE LARGELY ADDRESSED IN 10PM WED UPDATE.
IN THIS UPDATE TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY AND WINDS ARE 5 TO 10
KTS ABV FCST...AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE. OTHERWISE A WARM HUMID SUMMER
LIKE NIGHT WITH -SHRA AND TSTMS NORTH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS THE CONVECTION OVER
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS EASTERN PA AND CENTRAL NY AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
SATURATED FROM HEAVY RAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM ALBANY`S 00Z SOUNDING IS 1.51
INCHES AND BUFFALO`S 1.48 INCHES. THE HRRR-3KM 15 MINUTE COMPOSITE
REFLECTIVITY IS HANDLING THE CURRENT CONVECTION PLACEMENT AND
INTENSITY PRETTY WELL. HAVE USED THIS FOR POPS AND TIMING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES EAST MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WE ARE SEEING SOME SIGNS OF
THIS. HAVE SHOWERS LIKELY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MUCH OF
FORECAST AREA IN SLIGHT RISK...MAY MENTION OF STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION ON THURSDAY...NOT CLEARING
CWA UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.
SLOWLY MOVING FRONT WILL PROVIDE ENVIRONMENT FOR BOUTS OF HEAVY
RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. PWATS REMAIN IN THE 1.5 INCH RANGE
THROUGH THURSDAY...ONLY SLOWLY DROPPING OFF INTO FRIDAY.
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL JET TOMORROW BRINGS RIGHT REAR QUAD INTO
FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR DISCUSSION
ON FLOOD RISK.
SEVERE POTENTIAL TOMORROW IS NOT CLEAR CUT NOW. MODEL CAPE LOOKS
TO BE IN THE 1000 J/KG RANGE WITH BULK SHEAR RESPECTABLE IN THE
30-40 KNOT RANGE. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK AT
5.5C/KM. SPC HAS REGION IN SEE TEXT. FROM TODAY/S VANTAGE POINT
THAT LOOKS APPROPRIATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE TREND THAT BEGAN APPEARING IN THE MODEL SUITE TWO DAYS AGO...IS
NOW CONSENSUS FOR THE WEEKEND. GFS/NAM/12UTC ECMWF HAVE CDFNT
STALLING ALONG I-95 CORRIDOR BY FRI MORNING. SHARP 500HPA TROF FM
QB TO APPALACHIANS MOVING EAST...AS SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DIVE
SOUTHWARD INTO IT AND CUT IT OFF.
DURING FRI IT CUTS OFF OVER THE MID ATLC STATES...COASTAL
CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES OFF LONG ISLAND...AND THE SLOWLY DEEPENING SFC
LOW AND THE 500HPA CUT OFF BCM VERTICAL OFF S NEW ENG COAST
SAT...THEN DRIFT SLOWLY N SUNDAY INTO GULF OF MAINE.
NEEDLESS TO SAY THIS IS GOING TO FEEL MORE LIKE A LATE OCTOBER
WEEKEND IN THE NORTHEAST. DURING FRIDAY -SHRA WILL TRANSITION TO
PERIODS OF RAIN IN ANNA TYPE FRONT BTWN SFC FRONT AND 500HPA AXIS.
AT SAME TIME GRADIENT BETWEEN 1031MB HIGH OVER MIDWEST...AND
DEEPENING SFC LOW OFF LONG ISLAND WILL RESULT IN A 14MB WIND
GRADIENT ACROSS NYS FRI & SAT. N WINDS WILL INCR TO 10-20 MPH AND
RESULT WILL BE A RAINY RAW FRI AND SAT.
GFS QPF OF 1-2.5 INCHES...ECMWF 0.75 TO 1.0 FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SAT NT.
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL JUST HOLD STEADY NEAR
MORNING LOWS...BEFORE FALLING DURING FRI AFTN IN STRONG CAA. THEY
WILL FALL FURTHER FRI NT INTO THE 40S WITH 30S IN WESTERN
PERIPHERY. SAT HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S WITH CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF RAIN. MAX MIN TEMPS IN GUIDANCE ARE PROBABLY NOT
MUCH USE...AS ALOT OF NON-DIURNAL EFFECTS GOING ON FRI INTO SAT.
WILL USE 3 HOURLYS AND LET MAX/MINS FALL OUT.
OF NOTE IS THAT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PCPN/CLOUDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE A VERY SHARP TRANSITION...SOMEWHERE ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF FCA. PCPN COULD BE SPOTTY OR NON-EXISTENT ALONG W
EDGE OF FCA...AND THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF THINNING CLOUDS WHICH
WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO NR FREEZING DURING MORNINGS.
SUN THE VERTICAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT THROUGH THE GULF
OF MAINE...INTO THE MARITIMES SUN NT. CLOUDS AND -SHRA SHOULD DIM
SUNDAY WITH INCRG SUN ALONG W PRTNS OF FCA. SKIES WILL FINALLY
CLEAR SUN NT ACROSS FCA AS 500HPA RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE GRTLKS
AND SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO E GRTLKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD IN MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY. IT APPEARS THE HIGH SHOULD HOLD ON FOR WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE TOWARD SEASONABLE LEVELS
MONDAY WITH THE HELP OF SUNSHINE BUT STILL BE BELOW NORMAL BY
AROUND 5 DEGREES.
THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...BENNINGTON AND
EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES VT AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL START ON
MAY 25TH FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS OVER FOR THE NIGHT.
SO...WITH VARYING LAYERS OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...MOST AREAS
ARE MVFR/VFR...ALTHOUGH AS ANY LOW CLOUDS BREAK UP...AND MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS THIN TO SOME DEGREE...SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG COULD OCCUR BETWEEN 07Z-11Z. WITH LIGHT WINDS AT KGFL AND
KPOU ...NEAR AREA OF STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE...ACKNOWLEDGED
WIND SHEAR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...UNTIL THE WINDS ALOFT
WEAKEN TOWARD SUNRISE.
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD LINGER BEYOND 11Z...BUT WILL LOOK AT
TRENDS LATER TO SEE IF IT NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED AFTER 12Z. ONCE THE
EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIFT...THERE SHOULD BE MIXED MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPS
ALONG A COLD FRONT. JUST LEAVING THE VCTS AT ALL SITES FOR THE
AFTERNOON UNTIL EVERYTHING DEVELOPS AND MORE SPECIFIC TIMING AND
ASSOCIATED BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS CA BE
ASSESSED.
OUTLOOK...
THU-THU NIGHT...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT-MON...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO SATURDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN...MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ECMWF AND GFS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL INTO CWA
INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS PRODUCE
5-7.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN CWA INTO SUNDAY. GEFS SHOW AVERAGE OF 2.25
INCHES THROUGH WEEKEND WITH 4 MEMBERS PUSHING IN EXCESS OF 3
INCHES. WHILE NOT QUITE READY TO ACCEPT TOTALS OF EURO AND
GFS...ENOUGH GUIDANCE AVAILABLE TO AT LEAST WARRANT POTENTIAL OF
HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN HWO. FIRST CHALLENGE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL COME
TOMORROW WITH SLOWLY MOVING FRONT. EASTERN CWA AND CENTRAL CWA
HAVE SEEN HEAVIEST RAIN OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS AND WOULD APPEAR TO
BE THE REGION WHERE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS AT HIGHEST.
WILL MONITOR CLOSELY FOR AT LEAST POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOOD OR
FLOOD WATCH THURSDAY INTO WEEKEND.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/OKEEFE/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...OKEEFE
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
000
FXUS61 KBTV 230457
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1257 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED. A SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
BRINGING ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WILL NOT BE RAINING
CONTINUOUSLY...PERIODS OF BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1257 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE
AND ONLY TWEAK WAS TO ADJUST WEATHER BASED ON RADAR. FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...LOOKS LIKE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE
MAIN THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE WESTERN HALF
OF VERMONT. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THESE AREAS WITH THE ENHANCED WORDING
AND KEPT PROBABILITIES IN THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CATEGORIES.
AGAIN REST OF FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE OUR MOST
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AS COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE TILT
500MB TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SEVERAL
BANDS OF SLOW MOVING CONVECTION ALONG/IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT. GIVEN THE SETUP...MOST OF THE NWP QPF LOOKED ON THE LOW
SIDE GIVEN EVOLUTION AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. TRENDED CLOSER
TO HIGHER ECMWF QPF WITH WIDESPREAD 1+" RAINFALL AMTS ACROSS THE
CWA. SOME OF THIS HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND ERN VT. CAN/T RULE OUT LOCALIZED
2" RAINFALL AMTS BEFORE THINGS LIGHTEN UP EARLY FRIDAY. SOME
MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...REFER TO HYDRO SECTION BELOW. HIGHS
THURSDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S. EPISODES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
EXPECTED UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. FRIDAY...LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN SLOW/GRADUAL DRYING FROM NW-SE
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD SEE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE LATE IN THE
DAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD. COOLER TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...STILL NOT A VERY CLEAR CUT FORECAST
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, BUT IT`S LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY
THAT SATURDAY WILL FEATURE SOME RAIN -- AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO
SUNDAY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA THANKS TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. MEMORIAL DAY AND AFTER DOES
LOOK DRY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. DAILY SPECIFICS BELOW:
SATURDAY: DECENT AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS. NAM PUSHES
THE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE OUT THE QUICKEST AND WOULD FEATURE A
PRETTY DRY DAY, WHILE 12Z GFS AND 00Z EURO ARE PRETTY SIMILAR
FEATURING A "BATTEN DOWN THE HATCHES" WET DAY AS THEY HOLD BACK
THE TROF AND LOW THE LONGEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD FEATURE A SLUG
OF HEAVY RAIN, PROBABLY ACROSS VERMONT -- AND THIS COULD RESULT
IN FLOODING ISSUES. 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES ARE A BIT QUICKER, BUT
STILL FEATURE PRECIPITATION FOR THE DAY. GIVEN A BIG OMEGA BLOCK
EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE ATLANTIC, THAT MEANS EVERYTHING WILL
SLOW DOWN. THUS FEEL THE FAST NAM NEEDS TO BE DISCARDED, BUT THE
GFS/EURO COMBO MIGHT BE A LITTLE SLOW. AT THE END OF MY THOUGHT
PROCESS THOUGH, FELT IT NECESSARY TO INCREASE POPS -- WITH THE
BEST CHANCE ACROSS VERMONT WHERE IT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LOW OFF
THE COAST. ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND A LITTLE BIT
OF LIGHT RAIN COULD COME BACK TO THE `DACKS. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS
AND COLD AIR WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL, 50S IN THE VALLEYS AND 40S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. GONNA BE A DAMP/DREARY DAY. ADDING TO THE MISERY WILL BE
SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD GUST UPWARDS
OF 25 MPH. COME SATURDAY NIGHT, COLDER AIR ALOFT COULD RESULT IN
A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW AT ELEVATIONS PRIMARILY ABOVE 2500FT.
SUNDAY: WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE ROTATING BACK
SO THAT I EXPECT CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS. HAVE PLACED LOW CHANCE POPS
BACK TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH HIGHER IN EASTERN VERMONT. NEW
YORK SHOULD REMAIN DRY. BY LATE IN THE DAY, CLOUDS SHOULD BE
BREAKING UP FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL BE CHILLY AND CONTINUED
BREEZY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE ON EITHER SIDE OF 0C.
EVEN IN PERFECTLY SUNNY/DRY CONDITIONS, THIS WOULD ONLY SUPPORT
VALLEY HIGHS ABOUT 60F. WITH CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW,
I SUSPECT LOW 50S WILL BE IT FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 40S IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING AT THE HIGHEST SUMMITS, I`M
EXPECTING A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW. MAYBE ACCUMULATING TO 1" OR SO ON
MANSFIELD BY MID-DAY.
MEMORIAL DAY: GETTING BETTER AND WILL BE THE BEST DAY FOR ALL
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. PERHAPS RESIDUAL CLOUDS EARLY ACROSS THE
EAST, BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY. STILL COOL ALOFT, BUT 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP TO ABOUT 4C, SUPPORTING SURFACE HIGHS ABOUT 10F
WARMER THAN SUNDAY. LOTS OF LOW-MID 60S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
UPPER 50S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
DO NEED TO NOTE THAT THE 12Z EURO IS JUST COMING IN, AND IT
SUGGESTS AN EVEN SLOWER MOVE OUT OF THE TROUGH AND UPPER LOW. IN
FACT, IF THAT MODEL FORECAST ENDS UP PERFECT, THEN EVEN MONDAY
WILL BE CLOUDY/COOL/SOME RAIN -- VERY MUCH LIKE SUNDAY.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS IN, ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. EACH DAY SHOULD FEATURE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
TO 7 WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE -- SO SHOULD BE SOME NICE DAYS
(AGAIN ASSUMING THINGS DONT COME TO A COMPLETE STANDSTILL AND
KEEP US SMACK IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TROUGH).
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
WITHIN SHOWERS AND LIFR/IFR IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
AFTER 04Z...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER. PLENTIFUL
LLVL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH AREAS OF
IFR OVERNIGHT. DURING THURSDAY...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASES BY AFTERNOON WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT. PREVAILING
MVFR DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOCAL IFR AND POSSIBLE WIND
GUSTS 40 KTS IN THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UNSETTLED WX WITH OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ACROSS OUR
TAF SITES. THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR LIKELY. ALSO...ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY SFC WINDS UP TO 40 MPH. AREAS OF FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME LOCALIZED
IFR/LIFR LIKELY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY/SUNDAY
WITH MVFR...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF LLVL TURBULENCE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
350 PM WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD 1.0" TO 1.5" RAINFALL (WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS) HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE
PAST 24-30 HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL EPISODES OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. AN ADDITIONAL 1-2" RAINFALL IS FORECAST
BETWEEN LATE AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ON THURSDAY. WHILE ANTECEDENT
SOIL CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN DRY...AND VEGETATION IS FULLY
ACTIVE...THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STREET/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. ASSOCIATED MINOR
FLOODING WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. MAIN-STEM RIVER FLOODING IS NOT FORECAST...BUT
MAY NEED TO WATCH SOME OF THE SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS THAT
COULD LOCALLY EXCEED BANKFULL LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...KGM
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV
000
FXUS61 KALY 230408
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1208 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT. THE RAIN WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES. COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS N NYS...CROSSING OUR NORTHERN
MOST COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY IS HEALTHY...BUT NOT SEVERE. FURTHER
SOUTH AND AREA OF SHRA WILL MOVE ACROSS MHWK VLY CAPITAL DISTRICT.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. ITS IMPACTS IN GRIDS
WERE LARGELY ADDRESSED IN 10PM WED UPDATE.
IN THIS UPDATE TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY AND WINDS ARE 5 TO 10
KTS ABV FCST...AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE. OTHERWISE A WARM HUMID SUMMER
LIKE NIGHT WITH -SHRA AND TSTMS NORTH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS THE CONVECTION OVER
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS EASTERN PA AND CENTRAL NY AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
SATURATED FROM HEAVY RAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM ALBANY`S 00Z SOUNDING IS 1.51
INCHES AND BUFFALO`S 1.48 INCHES. THE HRRR-3KM 15 MINUTE COMPOSITE
REFLECTIVITY IS HANDLING THE CURRENT CONVECTION PLACEMENT AND
INTENSITY PRETTY WELL. HAVE USED THIS FOR POPS AND TIMING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES EAST MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WE ARE SEEING SOME SIGNS OF
THIS. HAVE SHOWERS LIKELY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MUCH OF
FORECAST AREA IN SLIGHT RISK...MAY MENTION OF STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION ON THURSDAY...NOT CLEARING
CWA UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.
SLOWLY MOVING FRONT WILL PROVIDE ENVIRONMENT FOR BOUTS OF HEAVY
RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. PWATS REMAIN IN THE 1.5 INCH RANGE
THROUGH THURSDAY...ONLY SLOWLY DROPPING OFF INTO FRIDAY.
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL JET TOMORROW BRINGS RIGHT REAR QUAD INTO
FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR DISCUSSION
ON FLOOD RISK.
SEVERE POTENTIAL TOMORROW IS NOT CLEAR CUT NOW. MODEL CAPE LOOKS
TO BE IN THE 1000 J/KG RANGE WITH BULK SHEAR RESPECTABLE IN THE
30-40 KNOT RANGE. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK AT
5.5C/KM. SPC HAS REGION IN SEE TEXT. FROM TODAY/S VANTAGE POINT
THAT LOOKS APPROPRIATE.
WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY...SOME DIMINISHING IN
PRECIP EXPECTED FOR PART OF FRIDAY. HOWEVER GFS AND ECMWF COMING
INTO AGREEMENT ON CUT OFF MIGRATING SLOWLY FROM DELMARVA INTO NEW
ENGLAND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF
RAIN/SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. WITH CWA ON COOL SIDE OF
SURFACE LOW TRACK...INSTABILITY LOOKS NEAR NIL. SO NO MENTION OF
TSRA FOR FRIDAY.
MINS ON SATURDAY MORNING IN ADIRONDACKS ARE FORECAST IN MID 30S.
THIS WOULD MEAN THREAT OF FROST GIVEN BEGINNING OF THE GROWING
SEASON THERE. WILL DEPEND ON CLOUDS AND PRECIP.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TO A WET START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE COLD FRONT JUST OFF COAST NEAR CAPE
COD AS SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES MAINTAINING THIS UPPER LOW WITH IT MOVING
GRADUALLY NORTHWARD UP THE COAST. THE LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL
SLOW THE FRONT`S EASTWARD PROGRESS AND THROW RAIN SHOWERS AND CLOUDS
BACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NEW YORK STATE SATURDAY. THE
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
UPPER RIDGING NOT EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BUILD IN UNTIL TUESDAY. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD IN MONDAY AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. IT APPEARS THE HIGH SHOULD HOLD ON FOR WEDNESDAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...CHILLY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY. BRISK AND GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ONLY ADD TO THE CHILL. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MODERATE TOWARD SEASONABLE LEVELS MONDAY WITH THE HELP
OF SUNSHINE BUT STILL BE BELOW NORMAL BY AROUND 5 DEGREES.
THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...BENNINGTON AND
EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES VT AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL START ON
MAY 25TH FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY.
NIGHTTIME LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S WITH
30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE EXPANSION OF THE GROWING
SEASON BY THIS TIME FROST ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED. CONDITIONS
WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR FROST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AND
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AS LINGERING DAYTIME INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO FUEL THESE STORMS. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS AT
KGFL/KALB TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY REMNANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
ELSEWHERE...THE THREAT FOR VCSH WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
AS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH FROM THE WESTERN NY/MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. A COMBINATION OF SATURATED LOW-LEVELS AND RECENT RAINFALL
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES TO DEVELOP AT ALL TAF
SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. KGFL/KPOU MAY BRIEFLY DIP TO IFR
LEVELS TOWARDS DAYBREAK BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE LOWER SIDE
AT THIS TIME.
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY AS RENEWED DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES...WITH EXPECTED
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. FLYING CONDITIONS THURSDAY WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR/MVFR
WITH PERIODS OF IFR ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
HAVE INTRODUCED LLWS INTO THE TAFS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS A
LOW-LEVEL JET PASSES OVERHEAD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY TO 5-10 KNOTS...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR HIGHER GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...
THU-THU NIGHT...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT-MON...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO SATURDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN...MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ECMWF AND GFS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL INTO CWA
INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS PRODUCE
5-7.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN CWA INTO SUNDAY. GEFS SHOW AVERAGE OF 2.25
INCHES THROUGH WEEKEND WITH 4 MEMBERS PUSHING IN EXCESS OF 3
INCHES. WHILE NOT QUITE READY TO ACCEPT TOTALS OF EURO AND
GFS...ENOUGH GUIDANCE AVAILABLE TO AT LEAST WARRANT POTENTIAL OF
HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN HWO. FIRST CHALLENGE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL COME
TOMORROW WITH SLOWLY MOVING FRONT. EASTERN CWA AND CENTRAL CWA
HAVE SEEN HEAVIEST RAIN OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS AND WOULD APPEAR TO
BE THE REGION WHERE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS AT HIGHEST.
WILL MONITOR CLOSELY FOR AT LEAST POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOOD OR
FLOOD WATCH THURSDAY INTO WEEKEND.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OKEEFE
NEAR TERM...IAA/OKEEFE/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...OKEEFE
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...OKEEFE
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
000
FXUS61 KBTV 230247
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1047 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH 10PM...SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. A SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
BRINGING ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WON/T
BE RAINING CONTINUOUSLY...PERIODS OF BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY
BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1041 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE. STILL EXPECTING MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT
HOWEVER...AND SOME COULD BE STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. WATCHING A LINE NOW MOVING INTO ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALLOWING FOR CONTINUATION OF
STORMS. THREAT OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL...AND HYDRO SITUATION
WILL NEED TO MONITORED...ESPECIALLY AS WE RECEIVE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL THURSDAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10PM. LATEST
RADAR INDICATES THAT THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL WHICH AFFECTED MUCH OF THE AREA ARE
DECREASING IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO
STABILIZE. STILL EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER
OVERNIGHT HOWEVER AS GOING FORECAST INDICATES. HAVE MADE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
LATEST DATA...BUT NO CHANGES TO OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION...
REGION CONTINUES TO BE UNDER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THRU 10PM.
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE IN
ANY THUNDERSTORMS. FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LIFTS NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT
AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS END BY ABOUT 11PM. THEN SYNOPTIC
FEATURE BRINGS RENEWED CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES.
SEVERE PARAMETERS LOOK LESS FAVORABLE OVERNIGHT...THEREFORE HAVE
DROPPED ENHANCED WORDING. LOWS WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE TONIGHT
WITH 60S DEWPOINTS IN PLACE ALONG WITH CLOUDS AND S-SW WINDS ALL
NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE OUR MOST
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AS COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE TILT
500MB TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SEVERAL
BANDS OF SLOW MOVING CONVECTION ALONG/IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT. GIVEN THE SETUP...MOST OF THE NWP QPF LOOKED ON THE LOW
SIDE GIVEN EVOLUTION AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. TRENDED CLOSER
TO HIGHER ECMWF QPF WITH WIDESPREAD 1+" RAINFALL AMTS ACROSS THE
CWA. SOME OF THIS HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND ERN VT. CAN/T RULE OUT LOCALIZED
2" RAINFALL AMTS BEFORE THINGS LIGHTEN UP EARLY FRIDAY. SOME
MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...REFER TO HYDRO SECTION BELOW. HIGHS
THURSDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S. EPISODES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
EXPECTED UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. FRIDAY...LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN SLOW/GRADUAL DRYING FROM NW-SE
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD SEE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE LATE IN THE
DAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD. COOLER TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...STILL NOT A VERY CLEAR CUT FORECAST
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, BUT IT`S LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY
THAT SATURDAY WILL FEATURE SOME RAIN -- AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO
SUNDAY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA THANKS TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. MEMORIAL DAY AND AFTER DOES
LOOK DRY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. DAILY SPECIFICS BELOW:
SATURDAY: DECENT AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS. NAM PUSHES
THE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE OUT THE QUICKEST AND WOULD FEATURE A
PRETTY DRY DAY, WHILE 12Z GFS AND 00Z EURO ARE PRETTY SIMILAR
FEATURING A "BATTEN DOWN THE HATCHES" WET DAY AS THEY HOLD BACK
THE TROF AND LOW THE LONGEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD FEATURE A SLUG
OF HEAVY RAIN, PROBABLY ACROSS VERMONT -- AND THIS COULD RESULT
IN FLOODING ISSUES. 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES ARE A BIT QUICKER, BUT
STILL FEATURE PRECIPITATION FOR THE DAY. GIVEN A BIG OMEGA BLOCK
EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE ATLANTIC, THAT MEANS EVERYTHING WILL
SLOW DOWN. THUS FEEL THE FAST NAM NEEDS TO BE DISCARDED, BUT THE
GFS/EURO COMBO MIGHT BE A LITTLE SLOW. AT THE END OF MY THOUGHT
PROCESS THOUGH, FELT IT NECESSARY TO INCREASE POPS -- WITH THE
BEST CHANCE ACROSS VERMONT WHERE IT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LOW OFF
THE COAST. ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND A LITTLE BIT
OF LIGHT RAIN COULD COME BACK TO THE `DACKS. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS
AND COLD AIR WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL, 50S IN THE VALLEYS AND 40S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. GONNA BE A DAMP/DREARY DAY. ADDING TO THE MISERY WILL BE
SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD GUST UPWARDS
OF 25 MPH. COME SATURDAY NIGHT, COLDER AIR ALOFT COULD RESULT IN
A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW AT ELEVATIONS PRIMARILY ABOVE 2500FT.
SUNDAY: WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE ROTATING BACK
SO THAT I EXPECT CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS. HAVE PLACED LOW CHANCE POPS
BACK TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH HIGHER IN EASTERN VERMONT. NEW
YORK SHOULD REMAIN DRY. BY LATE IN THE DAY, CLOUDS SHOULD BE
BREAKING UP FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL BE CHILLY AND CONTINUED
BREEZY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE ON EITHER SIDE OF 0C.
EVEN IN PERFECTLY SUNNY/DRY CONDITIONS, THIS WOULD ONLY SUPPORT
VALLEY HIGHS ABOUT 60F. WITH CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW,
I SUSPECT LOW 50S WILL BE IT FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 40S IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING AT THE HIGHEST SUMMITS, I`M
EXPECTING A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW. MAYBE ACCUMULATING TO 1" OR SO ON
MANSFIELD BY MID-DAY.
MEMORIAL DAY: GETTING BETTER AND WILL BE THE BEST DAY FOR ALL
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. PERHAPS RESIDUAL CLOUDS EARLY ACROSS THE
EAST, BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY. STILL COOL ALOFT, BUT 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP TO ABOUT 4C, SUPPORTING SURFACE HIGHS ABOUT 10F
WARMER THAN SUNDAY. LOTS OF LOW-MID 60S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
UPPER 50S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
DO NEED TO NOTE THAT THE 12Z EURO IS JUST COMING IN, AND IT
SUGGESTS AN EVEN SLOWER MOVE OUT OF THE TROUGH AND UPPER LOW. IN
FACT, IF THAT MODEL FORECAST ENDS UP PERFECT, THEN EVEN MONDAY
WILL BE CLOUDY/COOL/SOME RAIN -- VERY MUCH LIKE SUNDAY.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS IN, ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. EACH DAY SHOULD FEATURE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
TO 7 WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE -- SO SHOULD BE SOME NICE DAYS
(AGAIN ASSUMING THINGS DONT COME TO A COMPLETE STANDSTILL AND
KEEP US SMACK IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TROUGH).
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
WITHIN SHOWERS AND LIFR/IFR IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
AFTER 04Z...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER. PLENTIFUL
LLVL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH AREAS OF
IFR OVERNIGHT. DURING THURSDAY...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASES BY AFTERNOON WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT. PREVAILING
MVFR DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOCAL IFR AND POSSIBLE WIND
GUSTS 40 KTS IN THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UNSETTLED WX WITH OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ACROSS OUR
TAF SITES. THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR LIKELY. ALSO...ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY SFC WINDS UP TO 40 MPH. AREAS OF FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME LOCALIZED
IFR/LIFR LIKELY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY/SUNDAY
WITH MVFR...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF LLVL TURBULENCE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
350 PM WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD 1.0" TO 1.5" RAINFALL (WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS) HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE
PAST 24-30 HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL EPISODES OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. AN ADDITIONAL 1-2" RAINFALL IS FORECAST
BETWEEN LATE AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ON THURSDAY. WHILE ANTECEDENT
SOIL CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN DRY...AND VEGETATION IS FULLY
ACTIVE...THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STREET/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. ASSOCIATED MINOR
FLOODING WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. MAIN-STEM RIVER FLOODING IS NOT FORECAST...BUT
MAY NEED TO WATCH SOME OF THE SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS THAT
COULD LOCALLY EXCEED BANKFUL LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/NEILES
NEAR TERM...RJS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...KGM
HYDROLOGY...
000
FXUS61 KALY 230221
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1021 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT. THE RAIN WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES. COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #210 HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR
HERKIMER...HAMILTON...MONTGOMERY...FULTON...WARREN...SARATOGA AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES.
THE CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS THE CONVECTION OVER EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND ACROSS EASTERN PA AND CENTRAL NY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST SATURATED FROM
HEAVY RAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES FROM ALBANY`S 00Z SOUNDING IS 1.51 INCHES AND BUFFALO`S
1.48 INCHES. THE HRRR-3KM 15 MINUTE COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY IS
HANDLING THE CURRENT CONVECTION PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY PRETTY
WELL. HAVE USED THIS FOR POPS AND TIMING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WE ARE SEEING SOME SIGNS OF THIS. HAVE
SHOWERS LIKELY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MUCH OF FORECAST
AREA IN SLIGHT RISK...MAY MENTION OF STRONG STORMS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION ON THURSDAY...NOT CLEARING
CWA UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.
SLOWLY MOVING FRONT WILL PROVIDE ENVIRONMENT FOR BOUTS OF HEAVY
RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. PWATS REMAIN IN THE 1.5 INCH RANGE
THROUGH THURSDAY...ONLY SLOWLY DROPPING OFF INTO FRIDAY.
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL JET TOMORROW BRINGS RIGHT REAR QUAD INTO
FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR DISCUSSION
ON FLOOD RISK.
SEVERE POTENTIAL TOMORROW IS NOT CLEAR CUT NOW. MODEL CAPE LOOKS
TO BE IN THE 1000 J/KG RANGE WITH BULK SHEAR RESPECTABLE IN THE
30-40 KNOT RANGE. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK AT
5.5C/KM. SPC HAS REGION IN SEE TEXT. FROM TODAY/S VANTAGE POINT
THAT LOOKS APPROPRIATE.
WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY...SOME DIMINISHING IN
PRECIP EXPECTED FOR PART OF FRIDAY. HOWEVER GFS AND ECMWF COMING
INTO AGREEMENT ON CUT OFF MIGRATING SLOWLY FROM DELMARVA INTO NEW
ENGLAND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF
RAIN/SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. WITH CWA ON COOL SIDE OF
SURFACE LOW TRACK...INSTABILITY LOOKS NEAR NIL. SO NO MENTION OF
TSRA FOR FRIDAY.
MINS ON SATURDAY MORNING IN ADIRONDACKS ARE FORECAST IN MID 30S.
THIS WOULD MEAN THREAT OF FROST GIVEN BEGINNING OF THE GROWING
SEASON THERE. WILL DEPEND ON CLOUDS AND PRECIP.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TO A WET START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE COLD FRONT JUST OFF COAST NEAR CAPE
COD AS SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES MAINTAINING THIS UPPER LOW WITH IT MOVING
GRADUALLY NORTHWARD UP THE COAST. THE LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL
SLOW THE FRONT`S EASTWARD PROGRESS AND THROW RAIN SHOWERS AND CLOUDS
BACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NEW YORK STATE SATURDAY. THE
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
UPPER RIDGING NOT EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BUILD IN UNTIL TUESDAY. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD IN MONDAY AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. IT APPEARS THE HIGH SHOULD HOLD ON FOR WEDNESDAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...CHILLY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY. BRISK AND GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ONLY ADD TO THE CHILL. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MODERATE TOWARD SEASONABLE LEVELS MONDAY WITH THE HELP
OF SUNSHINE BUT STILL BE BELOW NORMAL BY AROUND 5 DEGREES.
THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...BENNINGTON AND
EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES VT AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL START ON
MAY 25TH FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY.
NIGHTTIME LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S WITH
30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE EXPANSION OF THE GROWING
SEASON BY THIS TIME FROST ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED. CONDITIONS
WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR FROST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AND
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AS LINGERING DAYTIME INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO FUEL THESE STORMS. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS AT
KGFL/KALB TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY REMNANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
ELSEWHERE...THE THREAT FOR VCSH WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
AS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH FROM THE WESTERN NY/MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. A COMBINATION OF SATURATED LOW-LEVELS AND RECENT RAINFALL
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES TO DEVELOP AT ALL TAF
SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. KGFL/KPOU MAY BRIEFLY DIP TO IFR
LEVELS TOWARDS DAYBREAK BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE LOWER SIDE
AT THIS TIME.
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY AS RENEWED DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES...WITH EXPECTED
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. FLYING CONDITIONS THURSDAY WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR/MVFR
WITH PERIODS OF IFR ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
HAVE INTRODUCED LLWS INTO THE TAFS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS A
LOW-LEVEL JET PASSES OVERHEAD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY TO 5-10 KNOTS...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR HIGHER GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...
THU-THU NIGHT...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT-MON...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO SATURDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN...MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ECMWF AND GFS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL INTO CWA
INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS PRODUCE
5-7.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN CWA INTO SUNDAY. GEFS SHOW AVERAGE OF 2.25
INCHES THROUGH WEEKEND WITH 4 MEMBERS PUSHING IN EXCESS OF 3
INCHES. WHILE NOT QUITE READY TO ACCEPT TOTALS OF EURO AND
GFS...ENOUGH GUIDANCE AVAILABLE TO AT LEAST WARRANT POTENTIAL OF
HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN HWO. FIRST CHALLENGE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL COME
TOMORROW WITH SLOWLY MOVING FRONT. EASTERN CWA AND CENTRAL CWA
HAVE SEEN HEAVIEST RAIN OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS AND WOULD APPEAR TO
BE THE REGION WHERE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS AT HIGHEST.
WILL MONITOR CLOSELY FOR AT LEAST POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOOD OR
FLOOD WATCH THURSDAY INTO WEEKEND.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OKEEFE
NEAR TERM...IAA/OKEEFE
SHORT TERM...OKEEFE
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...OKEEFE
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
000
FXUS61 KBTV 230037
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
837 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH 10PM...SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. A SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
BRINGING ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WON/T
BE RAINING CONTINUOUSLY...PERIODS OF BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY
BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 817 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 10PM. LATEST RADAR INDICATES THAT THE STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL WHICH AFFECTED MUCH
OF THE AREA ARE DECREASING IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS
ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE. STILL EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS WITH
POSSIBLE THUNDER OVERNIGHT HOWEVER AS GOING FORECAST INDICATES. HAVE
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST DATA...BUT NO CHANGES TO OVERALL FORECAST FOR
THE OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
REGION CONTINUES TO BE UNDER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
THRU 10PM. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LIFTS
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS END BY ABOUT
11PM. THEN SYNOPTIC FEATURE BRINGS RENEWED CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUES. SEVERE PARAMETERS LOOK LESS FAVORABLE
OVERNIGHT...THEREFORE HAVE DROPPED ENHANCED WORDING. LOWS WILL BE
ON THE WARM SIDE TONIGHT WITH 60S DEWPOINTS IN PLACE ALONG WITH
CLOUDS AND S-SW WINDS ALL NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE OUR MOST
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AS COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE TILT
500MB TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SEVERAL
BANDS OF SLOW MOVING CONVECTION ALONG/IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT. GIVEN THE SETUP...MOST OF THE NWP QPF LOOKED ON THE LOW
SIDE GIVEN EVOLUTION AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. TRENDED CLOSER
TO HIGHER ECMWF QPF WITH WIDESPREAD 1+" RAINFALL AMTS ACROSS THE
CWA. SOME OF THIS HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND ERN VT. CAN/T RULE OUT LOCALIZED
2" RAINFALL AMTS BEFORE THINGS LIGHTEN UP EARLY FRIDAY. SOME
MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...REFER TO HYDRO SECTION BELOW. HIGHS
THURSDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S. EPISODES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
EXPECTED UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. FRIDAY...LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN SLOW/GRADUAL DRYING FROM NW-SE
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD SEE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE LATE IN THE
DAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD. COOLER TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...STILL NOT A VERY CLEAR CUT FORECAST
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, BUT IT`S LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY
THAT SATURDAY WILL FEATURE SOME RAIN -- AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO
SUNDAY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA THANKS TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. MEMORIAL DAY AND AFTER DOES
LOOK DRY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. DAILY SPECIFICS BELOW:
SATURDAY: DECENT AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS. NAM PUSHES
THE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE OUT THE QUICKEST AND WOULD FEATURE A
PRETTY DRY DAY, WHILE 12Z GFS AND 00Z EURO ARE PRETTY SIMILAR
FEATURING A "BATTEN DOWN THE HATCHES" WET DAY AS THEY HOLD BACK
THE TROF AND LOW THE LONGEST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD FEATURE A SLUG
OF HEAVY RAIN, PROBABLY ACROSS VERMONT -- AND THIS COULD RESULT
IN FLOODING ISSUES. 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES ARE A BIT QUICKER, BUT
STILL FEATURE PRECIPITATION FOR THE DAY. GIVEN A BIG OMEGA BLOCK
EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE ATLANTIC, THAT MEANS EVERYTHING WILL
SLOW DOWN. THUS FEEL THE FAST NAM NEEDS TO BE DISCARDED, BUT THE
GFS/EURO COMBO MIGHT BE A LITTLE SLOW. AT THE END OF MY THOUGHT
PROCESS THOUGH, FELT IT NECESSARY TO INCREASE POPS -- WITH THE
BEST CHANCE ACROSS VERMONT WHERE IT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LOW OFF
THE COAST. ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND A LITTLE BIT
OF LIGHT RAIN COULD COME BACK TO THE `DACKS. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS
AND COLD AIR WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL, 50S IN THE VALLEYS AND 40S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. GONNA BE A DAMP/DREARY DAY. ADDING TO THE MISERY WILL BE
SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD GUST UPWARDS
OF 25 MPH. COME SATURDAY NIGHT, COLDER AIR ALOFT COULD RESULT IN
A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW AT ELEVATIONS PRIMARILY ABOVE 2500FT.
SUNDAY: WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE ROTATING BACK
SO THAT I EXPECT CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS. HAVE PLACED LOW CHANCE POPS
BACK TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH HIGHER IN EASTERN VERMONT. NEW
YORK SHOULD REMAIN DRY. BY LATE IN THE DAY, CLOUDS SHOULD BE
BREAKING UP FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL BE CHILLY AND CONTINUED
BREEZY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE ON EITHER SIDE OF 0C.
EVEN IN PERFECTLY SUNNY/DRY CONDITIONS, THIS WOULD ONLY SUPPORT
VALLEY HIGHS ABOUT 60F. WITH CLOUDS AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW,
I SUSPECT LOW 50S WILL BE IT FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 40S IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING AT THE HIGHEST SUMMITS, I`M
EXPECTING A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW. MAYBE ACCUMULATING TO 1" OR SO ON
MANSFIELD BY MID-DAY.
MEMORIAL DAY: GETTING BETTER AND WILL BE THE BEST DAY FOR ALL
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. PERHAPS RESIDUAL CLOUDS EARLY ACROSS THE
EAST, BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY. STILL COOL ALOFT, BUT 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP TO ABOUT 4C, SUPPORTING SURFACE HIGHS ABOUT 10F
WARMER THAN SUNDAY. LOTS OF LOW-MID 60S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
UPPER 50S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
DO NEED TO NOTE THAT THE 12Z EURO IS JUST COMING IN, AND IT
SUGGESTS AN EVEN SLOWER MOVE OUT OF THE TROUGH AND UPPER LOW. IN
FACT, IF THAT MODEL FORECAST ENDS UP PERFECT, THEN EVEN MONDAY
WILL BE CLOUDY/COOL/SOME RAIN -- VERY MUCH LIKE SUNDAY.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS IN, ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. EACH DAY SHOULD FEATURE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
TO 7 WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE -- SO SHOULD BE SOME NICE DAYS
(AGAIN ASSUMING THINGS DONT COME TO A COMPLETE STANDSTILL AND
KEEP US SMACK IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TROUGH).
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
WITHIN SHOWERS AND LIFR/IFR IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
AFTER 04Z...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER. PLENTIFUL
LLVL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH AREAS OF
IFR OVERNIGHT. DURING THURSDAY...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASES BY AFTERNOON WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT. PREVAILING
MVFR DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOCAL IFR AND POSSIBLE WIND
GUSTS 40 KTS IN THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UNSETTLED WX WITH OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ACROSS OUR
TAF SITES. THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR LIKELY. ALSO...ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY SFC WINDS UP TO 40 MPH. AREAS OF FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME LOCALIZED
IFR/LIFR LIKELY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY/SUNDAY
WITH MVFR...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF LLVL TURBULENCE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
350 PM WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD 1.0" TO 1.5" RAINFALL (WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMTS) HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE
PAST 24-30 HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL EPISODES OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. AN ADDITIONAL 1-2" RAINFALL IS FORECAST
BETWEEN LATE AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ON THURSDAY. WHILE ANTECEDENT
SOIL CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN DRY...AND VEGETATION IS FULLY
ACTIVE...THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STREET/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. ASSOCIATED MINOR
FLOODING WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. MAIN-STEM RIVER FLOODING IS NOT FORECAST...BUT
MAY NEED TO WATCH SOME OF THE SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS THAT
COULD LOCALLY EXCEED BANKFUL LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/NEILES
NEAR TERM...RJS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...KGM
HYDROLOGY...
| 
