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000
FXUS61 KBTV 290239
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1039 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT MONDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS
EVENING UNDER BROAD DEFORMATION BAND ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NORTH/NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW. HEAVIEST RAINS
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CONVERGENCE DUE TO NORTH WINDS AND BLOCKED FLOW
(FROUDE NUMBERS LESS THAN 0.25) HAS LED TO LOCAL ENHANCEMENT
THERE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SINCE WEAKENED OR MOVED EASTWARD OUT
OF THE AREA. BACK EDGE OF WEAKENING RAIN SHIELD NOW MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WE SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THE
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
WITH BLOCKED FLOW CONTINUING UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND FROUDE
NUMBERS AROUND 0.5 THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...A FEW LINGERING
UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS REMAIN
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE A GRADUAL DRYING AND CLEARING TREND
ANTICIPATED AFTER 06Z. LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED FOR MOST WITH A
FEW SPOT UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. SLOW MOVING RAIN SHIELD OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...MVFR CEILINGS AT KMSS WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 02Z AND
REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
FOR KSLK AND KPBG EXPECT IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AFTER 12Z. IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT KBTV THROUGH ABOUT 08Z DUE TO RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR BY ABOUT 15Z. KMPV AND
KRUT WILL HAVE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z BEFORE
BECOMING VFR AFTER 12Z AND REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE...WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE WEAKENING AND BACKING
TO THE WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...EVENSON/LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER







000
FXUS61 KBTV 290239
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1039 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT MONDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS
EVENING UNDER BROAD DEFORMATION BAND ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NORTH/NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW. HEAVIEST RAINS
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CONVERGENCE DUE TO NORTH WINDS AND BLOCKED FLOW
(FROUDE NUMBERS LESS THAN 0.25) HAS LED TO LOCAL ENHANCEMENT
THERE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SINCE WEAKENED OR MOVED EASTWARD OUT
OF THE AREA. BACK EDGE OF WEAKENING RAIN SHIELD NOW MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WE SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THE
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
WITH BLOCKED FLOW CONTINUING UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND FROUDE
NUMBERS AROUND 0.5 THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...A FEW LINGERING
UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS REMAIN
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE A GRADUAL DRYING AND CLEARING TREND
ANTICIPATED AFTER 06Z. LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED FOR MOST WITH A
FEW SPOT UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. SLOW MOVING RAIN SHIELD OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...MVFR CEILINGS AT KMSS WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 02Z AND
REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
FOR KSLK AND KPBG EXPECT IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AFTER 12Z. IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT KBTV THROUGH ABOUT 08Z DUE TO RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR BY ABOUT 15Z. KMPV AND
KRUT WILL HAVE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z BEFORE
BECOMING VFR AFTER 12Z AND REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE...WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE WEAKENING AND BACKING
TO THE WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...EVENSON/LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER






000
FXUS61 KBTV 290238
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1038 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT MONDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS
EVENING UNDER BROAD DEFORMATION BAND ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NORTH/NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW. HEAVIEST RAINS
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CONVERGENCE DUE TO NORTH WINDS AND BLOCKED FLOW
(FROUDE NUMBERS LESS THAN 0.25) HAVE LED TO LOCAL ENHANCEMENT
THERE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SINCE WEAKENED OR MOVED EASTWARD OUT
OF THE AREA. BACK EDGE OF WEAKENING RAIN SHIELD NOW MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WE SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THE
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
WITH BLOCKED FLOW CONTINUING UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND FROUDE
NUMBERS AROUND 0.5 THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...A FEW LINGERING
UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS REMAIN
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE A GRADUAL DRYING AND CLEARING TREND
ANTICIPATED AFTER 06Z. LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED FOR MOST WITH A
FEW SPOT UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. SLOW MOVING RAIN SHIELD OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...MVFR CEILINGS AT KMSS WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 02Z AND
REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
FOR KSLK AND KPBG EXPECT IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AFTER 12Z. IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT KBTV THROUGH ABOUT 08Z DUE TO RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR BY ABOUT 15Z. KMPV AND
KRUT WILL HAVE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z BEFORE
BECOMING VFR AFTER 12Z AND REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE...WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE WEAKENING AND BACKING
TO THE WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...EVENSON/LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 290238
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1038 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT MONDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS
EVENING UNDER BROAD DEFORMATION BAND ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NORTH/NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW. HEAVIEST RAINS
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CONVERGENCE DUE TO NORTH WINDS AND BLOCKED FLOW
(FROUDE NUMBERS LESS THAN 0.25) HAVE LED TO LOCAL ENHANCEMENT
THERE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SINCE WEAKENED OR MOVED EASTWARD OUT
OF THE AREA. BACK EDGE OF WEAKENING RAIN SHIELD NOW MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WE SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THE
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
WITH BLOCKED FLOW CONTINUING UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND FROUDE
NUMBERS AROUND 0.5 THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...A FEW LINGERING
UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS REMAIN
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE A GRADUAL DRYING AND CLEARING TREND
ANTICIPATED AFTER 06Z. LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED FOR MOST WITH A
FEW SPOT UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. SLOW MOVING RAIN SHIELD OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...MVFR CEILINGS AT KMSS WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 02Z AND
REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
FOR KSLK AND KPBG EXPECT IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AFTER 12Z. IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT KBTV THROUGH ABOUT 08Z DUE TO RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR BY ABOUT 15Z. KMPV AND
KRUT WILL HAVE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z BEFORE
BECOMING VFR AFTER 12Z AND REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE...WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE WEAKENING AND BACKING
TO THE WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...EVENSON/LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 290238
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1038 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT MONDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS
EVENING UNDER BROAD DEFORMATION BAND ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NORTH/NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW. HEAVIEST RAINS
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CONVERGENCE DUE TO NORTH WINDS AND BLOCKED FLOW
(FROUDE NUMBERS LESS THAN 0.25) HAVE LED TO LOCAL ENHANCEMENT
THERE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SINCE WEAKENED OR MOVED EASTWARD OUT
OF THE AREA. BACK EDGE OF WEAKENING RAIN SHIELD NOW MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WE SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THE
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
WITH BLOCKED FLOW CONTINUING UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND FROUDE
NUMBERS AROUND 0.5 THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...A FEW LINGERING
UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS REMAIN
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE A GRADUAL DRYING AND CLEARING TREND
ANTICIPATED AFTER 06Z. LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED FOR MOST WITH A
FEW SPOT UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. SLOW MOVING RAIN SHIELD OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...MVFR CEILINGS AT KMSS WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 02Z AND
REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
FOR KSLK AND KPBG EXPECT IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AFTER 12Z. IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT KBTV THROUGH ABOUT 08Z DUE TO RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR BY ABOUT 15Z. KMPV AND
KRUT WILL HAVE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z BEFORE
BECOMING VFR AFTER 12Z AND REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE...WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE WEAKENING AND BACKING
TO THE WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...EVENSON/LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 290238
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1038 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT MONDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS
EVENING UNDER BROAD DEFORMATION BAND ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NORTH/NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW. HEAVIEST RAINS
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CONVERGENCE DUE TO NORTH WINDS AND BLOCKED FLOW
(FROUDE NUMBERS LESS THAN 0.25) HAVE LED TO LOCAL ENHANCEMENT
THERE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SINCE WEAKENED OR MOVED EASTWARD OUT
OF THE AREA. BACK EDGE OF WEAKENING RAIN SHIELD NOW MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WE SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THE
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
WITH BLOCKED FLOW CONTINUING UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND FROUDE
NUMBERS AROUND 0.5 THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...A FEW LINGERING
UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS REMAIN
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE A GRADUAL DRYING AND CLEARING TREND
ANTICIPATED AFTER 06Z. LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED FOR MOST WITH A
FEW SPOT UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. SLOW MOVING RAIN SHIELD OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...MVFR CEILINGS AT KMSS WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 02Z AND
REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
FOR KSLK AND KPBG EXPECT IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AFTER 12Z. IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT KBTV THROUGH ABOUT 08Z DUE TO RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR BY ABOUT 15Z. KMPV AND
KRUT WILL HAVE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z BEFORE
BECOMING VFR AFTER 12Z AND REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE...WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE WEAKENING AND BACKING
TO THE WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...EVENSON/LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 290202
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1000 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
RESIDUAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO
TRACK FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION.  AS SEEN IN THE 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM
KBUF AND HERE...THE INVERSION NEAR H750 MAY INHIBIT TOO MUCH
CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS WE WILL DELAY THIS PROGRESS UNTIL VERY LATE
TONIGHT.  OTHERWISE...JUST MODIFIED HOURLY VALUES AND POPS AS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK...BUT UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER OUR REGION IN THE
WAKE OF ALL THE RAIN SUGGESTS SOME AREAS MAY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE STEADY ALL
NIGHT...SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
PERSISTING IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO...NOT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SOME UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TOMORROW...WITH AROUND 70 TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 50S...WITH
40S IN COLDER SPOTS.

BROAD UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...SO
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY SPREADING EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.  DURING THIS TIME...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST.  THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT TO
OUR REGION COUPLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN A
STAGNANT AIR MASS OF GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY THAT WILL MEAN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL HAVE REACHED ONLY THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY...AND THUS SHALL PROVIDE NO
RELIEF TO OUR REGION.

THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE NOTABLE VARIATION IN THE TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE LOWER MID
HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON AND LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...THOUGH
READINGS MAY HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS IN ALBANY THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST ARE
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WITH MVFR TO SOME IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN AND LOWER STRATUS MAY
DEVELOP.  THOSE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW TRACK FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION.  A
WEST-NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS
10KTS OR LESS.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING /MAY BE A LITTLE DELAYED
AT KPSF WITH UPSLOPE CONDITIONS/ AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE 40 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
REPORTS AND RIVER GAGE AT ROCKINGHAM IN NORTHERN WINDHAM COUNTY
EXPERIENCED FLASH FLOODING THIS EVENING.  COMBINATION OF TRAINING
CONVECTION AND NEARLY SATURATED GROUND RESULTED IN THE RAPID RISE OF
WATER.  AS OF 10 PM...PER COORDINATION AND RIVER GAGE...THE RIVER
LEVEL HAS JUST DROPPED BELOW FLOOD STAGE.  HOWEVER...WATER LEVELS
REMAIN ELEVATED AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR A
LITTLE LONGER.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS/BGM
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS/BGM








000
FXUS61 KALY 290202
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1000 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
RESIDUAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO
TRACK FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION.  AS SEEN IN THE 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM
KBUF AND HERE...THE INVERSION NEAR H750 MAY INHIBIT TOO MUCH
CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS WE WILL DELAY THIS PROGRESS UNTIL VERY LATE
TONIGHT.  OTHERWISE...JUST MODIFIED HOURLY VALUES AND POPS AS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK...BUT UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER OUR REGION IN THE
WAKE OF ALL THE RAIN SUGGESTS SOME AREAS MAY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE STEADY ALL
NIGHT...SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
PERSISTING IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO...NOT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SOME UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TOMORROW...WITH AROUND 70 TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 50S...WITH
40S IN COLDER SPOTS.

BROAD UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...SO
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY SPREADING EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.  DURING THIS TIME...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST.  THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT TO
OUR REGION COUPLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN A
STAGNANT AIR MASS OF GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY THAT WILL MEAN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL HAVE REACHED ONLY THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY...AND THUS SHALL PROVIDE NO
RELIEF TO OUR REGION.

THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE NOTABLE VARIATION IN THE TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE LOWER MID
HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON AND LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...THOUGH
READINGS MAY HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS IN ALBANY THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST ARE
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS WITH MVFR TO SOME IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN AND LOWER STRATUS MAY
DEVELOP.  THOSE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW TRACK FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION.  A
WEST-NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS
10KTS OR LESS.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING /MAY BE A LITTLE DELAYED
AT KPSF WITH UPSLOPE CONDITIONS/ AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE 40 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
REPORTS AND RIVER GAGE AT ROCKINGHAM IN NORTHERN WINDHAM COUNTY
EXPERIENCED FLASH FLOODING THIS EVENING.  COMBINATION OF TRAINING
CONVECTION AND NEARLY SATURATED GROUND RESULTED IN THE RAPID RISE OF
WATER.  AS OF 10 PM...PER COORDINATION AND RIVER GAGE...THE RIVER
LEVEL HAS JUST DROPPED BELOW FLOOD STAGE.  HOWEVER...WATER LEVELS
REMAIN ELEVATED AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR A
LITTLE LONGER.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS/BGM
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS/BGM







000
FXUS61 KBTV 282327
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
727 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 655 PM EDT MONDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACRS NORTHERN NY/VT AND INCREASE WINDS ACRS THE CPV.
SFC LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR EXETER NH WL CONT TO MOVE QUICKLY NE
INTO EASTERN CANADA OVERNIGHT...WHILE POTENT 5H VORT AND BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION ZN DEVELOPS FROM WESTERN NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS
COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLW DOWN THE CPV WL
RESULT IN CONTINUED RAINFALL ACRS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO THE CPV
AND WESTERN SLOPES THRU 06Z TONIGHT. KBTV HAS MEASURED 0.40 LAST
HR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. KCXX VAD SHOWS 925MB WINDS OF 30
KNOTS FROM THE NORTH...HELPING TO ENHANCE THE LLVL CONVERGENCE
ACRS THE CPV. THINKING AN ADDITIONAL 0.25 TO 0.75 WITH LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE
CPV/WESTERN SLOPES THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. RAINFALL INTENSITY
SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY FLOOD RELATED PROBLEMS. MEANWHILE...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND ULVL SUPPORT WL SLOWLY WEAKEN AFT 06Z AND
PRECIP WL BECOME SCATTERED. CONTINUED TO MENTION 100% POPS ACRS
THE NORTHERN CWA WITH CHC/LOW LIKELY SOUTHERN CWA...WITH SCHC FOR
THUNDER THRU EARLY THIS EVENING. STILL NOTING A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKE ACRS THIS REGION.

JUST LIKE WINTER STORMS A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE SFC LOW
TRACK...RESULTS IN A WIDE RANGE OF WX. FOR THIS AFTN THE SFC LOW
JUMPED TO CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND...AND RESULTED IN MUCH LESS INSTABILITY ACRS OUR CWA. A
FURTHER NORTH TRACK WOULD HAVE PLACED OUR CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH GREATER INSTABILITY. THEREFORE WITH CAPE VALUES ONLY BTWN 500
AND 800 J/KG...AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOL NORTHERLY WINDS...THE
THREAT FOR SVR STORMS HAS ENDED ACRS OUR CWA. HAVE MENTIONED
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH SCHC FOR STORMS THRU 00Z THIS
EVENING...THEN REMOVED MENTION OF CONVECTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HRS. AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIP WL BECOME TRRN DRIVEN
BY 03Z TONIGHT...WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP ACRS THE EASTERN
DACKS...NORTHERN CPV...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS.

THINKING THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING WL DECREASE WITH
THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY THIS EVENING...AND WEAKER RAINFALL RATES.
SOUTHERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES WL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY WITH STORM TOTAL PRECIP IN EXCESS OF 3
INCHES. ALL IS COVERED IN CRNT WARNING STATEMENT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NE CONUS WITH WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT...GOOD WARM AIR
CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...AND WRAP AROUND COMMA
HEAD. THIS POTENT 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY WL LIFT ACRS OUR CWA THRU EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS GREATER ACRS SOUTHERN VT WL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...AS THE BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PIVOT FROM NORTHERN NY INTO
NORTHERN VT THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WL BE
POSSIBLE. THINKING AN ADDITIONAL 0.50 TO 1.0 OF QPF WL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE COMMA HEAD PORTION OF THE STORM. PRECIP WL BECOME MAINLY
TRRN DRIVEN AFT 03Z...WITH UPSLOPE FLW AND SOME BLOCKING SIGNATURE
NOTED ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES. WL CONT TO MENTION HIGH CAT
POPS ACRS THE DACKS INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS
AND THE CPV. NOTICED 25 TO 35 KNOTS OF FLW AROUND 1000 FEET AGL
TONIGHT...SO THIS WL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT SOME PATCHY FOG
AFT 06Z IS POSSIBLE GIVEN SATURATED BL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
DEEPER VALLEYS. TEMPS WL RANGE FROM L50S TO L/M 60S MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. SLOW MOVING RAIN SHIELD OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...MVFR CEILINGS AT KMSS WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 02Z AND
REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
FOR KSLK AND KPBG EXPECT IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AFTER 12Z. IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT KBTV THROUGH ABOUT 08Z DUE TO RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR BY ABOUT 15Z. KMPV AND
KRUT WILL HAVE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z BEFORE
BECOMING VFR AFTER 12Z AND REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE...WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE WEAKENING AND BACKING
TO THE WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...EVENSON/LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 282327
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
727 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 655 PM EDT MONDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACRS NORTHERN NY/VT AND INCREASE WINDS ACRS THE CPV.
SFC LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR EXETER NH WL CONT TO MOVE QUICKLY NE
INTO EASTERN CANADA OVERNIGHT...WHILE POTENT 5H VORT AND BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION ZN DEVELOPS FROM WESTERN NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS
COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLW DOWN THE CPV WL
RESULT IN CONTINUED RAINFALL ACRS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO THE CPV
AND WESTERN SLOPES THRU 06Z TONIGHT. KBTV HAS MEASURED 0.40 LAST
HR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. KCXX VAD SHOWS 925MB WINDS OF 30
KNOTS FROM THE NORTH...HELPING TO ENHANCE THE LLVL CONVERGENCE
ACRS THE CPV. THINKING AN ADDITIONAL 0.25 TO 0.75 WITH LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE
CPV/WESTERN SLOPES THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. RAINFALL INTENSITY
SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY FLOOD RELATED PROBLEMS. MEANWHILE...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND ULVL SUPPORT WL SLOWLY WEAKEN AFT 06Z AND
PRECIP WL BECOME SCATTERED. CONTINUED TO MENTION 100% POPS ACRS
THE NORTHERN CWA WITH CHC/LOW LIKELY SOUTHERN CWA...WITH SCHC FOR
THUNDER THRU EARLY THIS EVENING. STILL NOTING A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKE ACRS THIS REGION.

JUST LIKE WINTER STORMS A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE SFC LOW
TRACK...RESULTS IN A WIDE RANGE OF WX. FOR THIS AFTN THE SFC LOW
JUMPED TO CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND...AND RESULTED IN MUCH LESS INSTABILITY ACRS OUR CWA. A
FURTHER NORTH TRACK WOULD HAVE PLACED OUR CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH GREATER INSTABILITY. THEREFORE WITH CAPE VALUES ONLY BTWN 500
AND 800 J/KG...AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOL NORTHERLY WINDS...THE
THREAT FOR SVR STORMS HAS ENDED ACRS OUR CWA. HAVE MENTIONED
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH SCHC FOR STORMS THRU 00Z THIS
EVENING...THEN REMOVED MENTION OF CONVECTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HRS. AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIP WL BECOME TRRN DRIVEN
BY 03Z TONIGHT...WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP ACRS THE EASTERN
DACKS...NORTHERN CPV...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS.

THINKING THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING WL DECREASE WITH
THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY THIS EVENING...AND WEAKER RAINFALL RATES.
SOUTHERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES WL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY WITH STORM TOTAL PRECIP IN EXCESS OF 3
INCHES. ALL IS COVERED IN CRNT WARNING STATEMENT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NE CONUS WITH WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT...GOOD WARM AIR
CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...AND WRAP AROUND COMMA
HEAD. THIS POTENT 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY WL LIFT ACRS OUR CWA THRU EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS GREATER ACRS SOUTHERN VT WL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...AS THE BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PIVOT FROM NORTHERN NY INTO
NORTHERN VT THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WL BE
POSSIBLE. THINKING AN ADDITIONAL 0.50 TO 1.0 OF QPF WL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE COMMA HEAD PORTION OF THE STORM. PRECIP WL BECOME MAINLY
TRRN DRIVEN AFT 03Z...WITH UPSLOPE FLW AND SOME BLOCKING SIGNATURE
NOTED ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES. WL CONT TO MENTION HIGH CAT
POPS ACRS THE DACKS INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS
AND THE CPV. NOTICED 25 TO 35 KNOTS OF FLW AROUND 1000 FEET AGL
TONIGHT...SO THIS WL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT SOME PATCHY FOG
AFT 06Z IS POSSIBLE GIVEN SATURATED BL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
DEEPER VALLEYS. TEMPS WL RANGE FROM L50S TO L/M 60S MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. SLOW MOVING RAIN SHIELD OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...MVFR CEILINGS AT KMSS WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 02Z AND
REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
FOR KSLK AND KPBG EXPECT IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AFTER 12Z. IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT KBTV THROUGH ABOUT 08Z DUE TO RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR BY ABOUT 15Z. KMPV AND
KRUT WILL HAVE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z BEFORE
BECOMING VFR AFTER 12Z AND REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE...WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE WEAKENING AND BACKING
TO THE WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...EVENSON/LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER







000
FXUS61 KBTV 282254
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
654 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 655 PM EDT MONDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACRS NORTHERN NY/VT AND INCREASE WINDS ACRS THE CPV.
SFC LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR EXETER NH WL CONT TO MOVE QUICKLY NE
INTO EASTERN CANADA OVERNIGHT...WHILE POTENT 5H VORT AND BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION ZN DEVELOPS FROM WESTERN NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS
COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLW DOWN THE CPV WL
RESULT IN CONTINUED RAINFALL ACRS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO THE CPV
AND WESTERN SLOPES THRU 06Z TONIGHT. KBTV HAS MEASURED 0.40 LAST
HR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. KCXX VAD SHOWS 925MB WINDS OF 30
KNOTS FROM THE NORTH...HELPING TO ENHANCE THE LLVL CONVERGENCE
ACRS THE CPV. THINKING AN ADDITIONAL 0.25 TO 0.75 WITH LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE
CPV/WESTERN SLOPES THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. RAINFALL INTENSITY
SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY FLOOD RELATED PROBLEMS. MEANWHILE...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND ULVL SUPPORT WL SLOWLY WEAKEN AFT 06Z AND
PRECIP WL BECOME SCATTERED. CONTINUED TO MENTION 100% POPS ACRS
THE NORTHERN CWA WITH CHC/LOW LIKELY SOUTHERN CWA...WITH SCHC FOR
THUNDER THRU EARLY THIS EVENING. STILL NOTING A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKE ACRS THIS REGION.

JUST LIKE WINTER STORMS A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE SFC LOW
TRACK...RESULTS IN A WIDE RANGE OF WX. FOR THIS AFTN THE SFC LOW
JUMPED TO CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND...AND RESULTED IN MUCH LESS INSTABILITY ACRS OUR CWA. A
FURTHER NORTH TRACK WOULD HAVE PLACED OUR CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH GREATER INSTABILITY. THEREFORE WITH CAPE VALUES ONLY BTWN 500
AND 800 J/KG...AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOL NORTHERLY WINDS...THE
THREAT FOR SVR STORMS HAS ENDED ACRS OUR CWA. HAVE MENTIONED
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH SCHC FOR STORMS THRU 00Z THIS
EVENING...THEN REMOVED MENTION OF CONVECTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HRS. AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIP WL BECOME TRRN DRIVEN
BY 03Z TONIGHT...WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP ACRS THE EASTERN
DACKS...NORTHERN CPV...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS.

THINKING THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING WL DECREASE WITH
THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY THIS EVENING...AND WEAKER RAINFALL RATES.
SOUTHERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES WL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY WITH STORM TOTAL PRECIP IN EXCESS OF 3
INCHES. ALL IS COVERED IN CRNT WARNING STATEMENT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NE CONUS WITH WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT...GOOD WARM AIR
CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...AND WRAP AROUND COMMA
HEAD. THIS POTENT 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY WL LIFT ACRS OUR CWA THRU EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS GREATER ACRS SOUTHERN VT WL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...AS THE BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PIVOT FROM NORTHERN NY INTO
NORTHERN VT THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WL BE
POSSIBLE. THINKING AN ADDITIONAL 0.50 TO 1.0 OF QPF WL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE COMMA HEAD PORTION OF THE STORM. PRECIP WL BECOME MAINLY
TRRN DRIVEN AFT 03Z...WITH UPSLOPE FLW AND SOME BLOCKING SIGNATURE
NOTED ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES. WL CONT TO MENTION HIGH CAT
POPS ACRS THE DACKS INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS
AND THE CPV. NOTICED 25 TO 35 KNOTS OF FLW AROUND 1000 FEET AGL
TONIGHT...SO THIS WL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT SOME PATCHY FOG
AFT 06Z IS POSSIBLE GIVEN SATURATED BL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
DEEPER VALLEYS. TEMPS WL RANGE FROM L50S TO L/M 60S MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...EVENTUALLY
TRENDING TO VFR TOWARDS/AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUESDAY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NY/VT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KRUT FROM 18-22Z. PRECIP BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH MVFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 12Z WHERE
THEREAFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AT
5-15KTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER









000
FXUS61 KBTV 282254
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
654 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 655 PM EDT MONDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACRS NORTHERN NY/VT AND INCREASE WINDS ACRS THE CPV.
SFC LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR EXETER NH WL CONT TO MOVE QUICKLY NE
INTO EASTERN CANADA OVERNIGHT...WHILE POTENT 5H VORT AND BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION ZN DEVELOPS FROM WESTERN NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS
COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLW DOWN THE CPV WL
RESULT IN CONTINUED RAINFALL ACRS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO THE CPV
AND WESTERN SLOPES THRU 06Z TONIGHT. KBTV HAS MEASURED 0.40 LAST
HR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. KCXX VAD SHOWS 925MB WINDS OF 30
KNOTS FROM THE NORTH...HELPING TO ENHANCE THE LLVL CONVERGENCE
ACRS THE CPV. THINKING AN ADDITIONAL 0.25 TO 0.75 WITH LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE
CPV/WESTERN SLOPES THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. RAINFALL INTENSITY
SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY FLOOD RELATED PROBLEMS. MEANWHILE...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND ULVL SUPPORT WL SLOWLY WEAKEN AFT 06Z AND
PRECIP WL BECOME SCATTERED. CONTINUED TO MENTION 100% POPS ACRS
THE NORTHERN CWA WITH CHC/LOW LIKELY SOUTHERN CWA...WITH SCHC FOR
THUNDER THRU EARLY THIS EVENING. STILL NOTING A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKE ACRS THIS REGION.

JUST LIKE WINTER STORMS A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE SFC LOW
TRACK...RESULTS IN A WIDE RANGE OF WX. FOR THIS AFTN THE SFC LOW
JUMPED TO CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND...AND RESULTED IN MUCH LESS INSTABILITY ACRS OUR CWA. A
FURTHER NORTH TRACK WOULD HAVE PLACED OUR CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH GREATER INSTABILITY. THEREFORE WITH CAPE VALUES ONLY BTWN 500
AND 800 J/KG...AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOL NORTHERLY WINDS...THE
THREAT FOR SVR STORMS HAS ENDED ACRS OUR CWA. HAVE MENTIONED
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH SCHC FOR STORMS THRU 00Z THIS
EVENING...THEN REMOVED MENTION OF CONVECTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HRS. AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIP WL BECOME TRRN DRIVEN
BY 03Z TONIGHT...WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP ACRS THE EASTERN
DACKS...NORTHERN CPV...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS.

THINKING THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING WL DECREASE WITH
THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY THIS EVENING...AND WEAKER RAINFALL RATES.
SOUTHERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES WL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY WITH STORM TOTAL PRECIP IN EXCESS OF 3
INCHES. ALL IS COVERED IN CRNT WARNING STATEMENT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NE CONUS WITH WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT...GOOD WARM AIR
CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...AND WRAP AROUND COMMA
HEAD. THIS POTENT 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY WL LIFT ACRS OUR CWA THRU EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS GREATER ACRS SOUTHERN VT WL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...AS THE BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PIVOT FROM NORTHERN NY INTO
NORTHERN VT THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WL BE
POSSIBLE. THINKING AN ADDITIONAL 0.50 TO 1.0 OF QPF WL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE COMMA HEAD PORTION OF THE STORM. PRECIP WL BECOME MAINLY
TRRN DRIVEN AFT 03Z...WITH UPSLOPE FLW AND SOME BLOCKING SIGNATURE
NOTED ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES. WL CONT TO MENTION HIGH CAT
POPS ACRS THE DACKS INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS
AND THE CPV. NOTICED 25 TO 35 KNOTS OF FLW AROUND 1000 FEET AGL
TONIGHT...SO THIS WL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT SOME PATCHY FOG
AFT 06Z IS POSSIBLE GIVEN SATURATED BL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
DEEPER VALLEYS. TEMPS WL RANGE FROM L50S TO L/M 60S MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...EVENTUALLY
TRENDING TO VFR TOWARDS/AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUESDAY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NY/VT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KRUT FROM 18-22Z. PRECIP BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH MVFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 12Z WHERE
THEREAFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AT
5-15KTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER










000
FXUS61 KALY 282140
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
540 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CANCELLED. RAIN WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDER STILL IN PARTS OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...
SPINNING EAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM. CURRENT FORECAST
STILL REFLECTS CURRENT TRENDS SO VERY LITTLE TO ADJUST THROUGH
THIS EVENING EXCEPT TO TAKE OUT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY
RAIN WORDING.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK...BUT UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER OUR REGION IN THE
WAKE OF ALL THE RAIN SUGGESTS SOME AREAS MAY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE STEADY ALL
NIGHT...SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
PERSISTING IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO...NOT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SOME UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TOMORROW...WITH AROUND 70 TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 50S...WITH
40S IN COLDER SPOTS.

BROAD UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...SO
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY SPREADING EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.  DURING THIS TIME...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST.  THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT TO
OUR REGION COUPLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN A
STAGNANT AIR MASS OF GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY THAT WILL MEAN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL HAVE REACHED ONLY THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY...AND THUS SHALL PROVIDE NO
RELIEF TO OUR REGION.

THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE NOTABLE VARIATION IN THE TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE LOWER MID
HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON AND LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...THOUGH
READINGS MAY HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS IN ALBANY THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST ARE
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE
CATSKILLS...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 20-30 MPH. WE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT
ALL THE TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THAT HIT A TERMINAL SITE.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SO LOCALIZED FOG IS
A THREAT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE 40 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME
STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 282133
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
533 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 522 PM EDT MONDAY...JUST LIKE WINTER STORMS A SLIGHT SHIFT
IN THE SFC LOW TRACK...RESULTS IN A WIDE RANGE OF WX. FOR THIS
AFTN THE SFC LOW JUMPED TO CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND RESULTED IN MUCH LESS
INSTABILITY ACRS OUR CWA. A FURTHER NORTH TRACK WOULD HAVE PLACED
OUR CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH GREATER INSTABILITY. THEREFORE
WITH CAPE VALUES ONLY BTWN 500 AND 800 J/KG...AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AND COOL NORTHERLY WINDS...THE THREAT FOR SVR STORMS HAS ENDED
ACRS OUR CWA. HAVE MENTIONED OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH SCHC FOR
STORMS THRU 00Z THIS EVENING...THEN REMOVED MENTION OF CONVECTION
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HRS. AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIP WL
BECOME TRRN DRIVEN BY 03Z TONIGHT...WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP ACRS THE
EASTERN DACKS...NORTHERN CPV...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS.

THINKING THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING WL DECREASE WITH
THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY THIS EVENING...AND WEAKER RAINFALL RATES.
SOUTHERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES WL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY WITH STORM TOTAL PRECIP IN EXCESS OF 3
INCHES. ALL IS COVERED IN CRNT WARNING STATEMENT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NE CONUS WITH WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT...GOOD WARM AIR
CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...AND WRAP AROUND COMMA
HEAD. THIS POTENT 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY WL LIFT ACRS OUR CWA THRU EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS GREATER ACRS SOUTHERN VT WL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...AS THE BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PIVOT FROM NORTHERN NY INTO
NORTHERN VT THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WL BE
POSSIBLE. THINKING AN ADDITIONAL 0.50 TO 1.0 OF QPF WL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE COMMA HEAD PORTION OF THE STORM. PRECIP WL BECOME MAINLY
TRRN DRIVEN AFT 03Z...WITH UPSLOPE FLW AND SOME BLOCKING SIGNATURE
NOTED ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES. WL CONT TO MENTION HIGH CAT
POPS ACRS THE DACKS INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS
AND THE CPV. NOTICED 25 TO 35 KNOTS OF FLW AROUND 1000 FEET AGL
TONIGHT...SO THIS WL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT SOME PATCHY FOG
AFT 06Z IS POSSIBLE GIVEN SATURATED BL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
DEEPER VALLEYS. TEMPS WL RANGE FROM L50S TO L/M 60S MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...EVENTUALLY
TRENDING TO VFR TOWARDS/AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUESDAY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NY/VT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KRUT FROM 18-22Z. PRECIP BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH MVFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 12Z WHERE
THEREAFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AT
5-15KTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER














000
FXUS61 KBTV 282133
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
533 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 522 PM EDT MONDAY...JUST LIKE WINTER STORMS A SLIGHT SHIFT
IN THE SFC LOW TRACK...RESULTS IN A WIDE RANGE OF WX. FOR THIS
AFTN THE SFC LOW JUMPED TO CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND RESULTED IN MUCH LESS
INSTABILITY ACRS OUR CWA. A FURTHER NORTH TRACK WOULD HAVE PLACED
OUR CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH GREATER INSTABILITY. THEREFORE
WITH CAPE VALUES ONLY BTWN 500 AND 800 J/KG...AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AND COOL NORTHERLY WINDS...THE THREAT FOR SVR STORMS HAS ENDED
ACRS OUR CWA. HAVE MENTIONED OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH SCHC FOR
STORMS THRU 00Z THIS EVENING...THEN REMOVED MENTION OF CONVECTION
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HRS. AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIP WL
BECOME TRRN DRIVEN BY 03Z TONIGHT...WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP ACRS THE
EASTERN DACKS...NORTHERN CPV...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREENS.

THINKING THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING WL DECREASE WITH
THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY THIS EVENING...AND WEAKER RAINFALL RATES.
SOUTHERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES WL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY WITH STORM TOTAL PRECIP IN EXCESS OF 3
INCHES. ALL IS COVERED IN CRNT WARNING STATEMENT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NE CONUS WITH WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT...GOOD WARM AIR
CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...AND WRAP AROUND COMMA
HEAD. THIS POTENT 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY WL LIFT ACRS OUR CWA THRU EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS GREATER ACRS SOUTHERN VT WL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...AS THE BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PIVOT FROM NORTHERN NY INTO
NORTHERN VT THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WL BE
POSSIBLE. THINKING AN ADDITIONAL 0.50 TO 1.0 OF QPF WL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE COMMA HEAD PORTION OF THE STORM. PRECIP WL BECOME MAINLY
TRRN DRIVEN AFT 03Z...WITH UPSLOPE FLW AND SOME BLOCKING SIGNATURE
NOTED ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES. WL CONT TO MENTION HIGH CAT
POPS ACRS THE DACKS INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS
AND THE CPV. NOTICED 25 TO 35 KNOTS OF FLW AROUND 1000 FEET AGL
TONIGHT...SO THIS WL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT SOME PATCHY FOG
AFT 06Z IS POSSIBLE GIVEN SATURATED BL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
DEEPER VALLEYS. TEMPS WL RANGE FROM L50S TO L/M 60S MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...EVENTUALLY
TRENDING TO VFR TOWARDS/AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUESDAY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NY/VT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KRUT FROM 18-22Z. PRECIP BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH MVFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 12Z WHERE
THEREAFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AT
5-15KTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER













000
FXUS61 KALY 282006
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
406 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
     SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH VALID UNTIL 8 PM...

CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD STILL
TRACKING EAST AND A FEW STORMS COULD STILL BECOME SEVERE IN AN
NEAR THE WATCH AREA. THE STORMS ARE MOVING...SO THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IS NOT HIGH OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS WHERE SOME ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE BERKSHIRES. RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
EVENTUALLY OUT OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK...BUT UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER OUR REGION IN THE
WAKE OF ALL THE RAIN SUGGESTS SOME AREAS MAY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE STEADY ALL
NIGHT...SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
PERSISTING IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO...NOT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SOME UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TOMORROW...WITH AROUND 70 TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 50S...WITH
40S IN COLDER SPOTS.

BROAD UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...SO
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY SPREADING EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.  DURING THIS TIME...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST.  THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT TO
OUR REGION COUPLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN A
STAGNANT AIR MASS OF GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY THAT WILL MEAN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL HAVE REACHED ONLY THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY...AND THUS SHALL PROVIDE NO
RELIEF TO OUR REGION.

THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE NOTABLE VARIATION IN THE TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE LOWER MID
HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON AND LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...THOUGH
READINGS MAY HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS IN ALBANY THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST ARE
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE
CATSKILLS...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 20-30 MPH. WE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT
ALL THE TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THAT HIT A TERMINAL SITE.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SO LOCALIZED FOG IS
A THREAT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE 40 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME
STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 281959
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NE CONUS WITH WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT...GOOD WARM AIR
CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...AND WRAP AROUND COMMA
HEAD. THIS POTENT 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY WL LIFT ACRS OUR CWA THRU EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS GREATER ACRS SOUTHERN VT WL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...AS THE BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PIVOT FROM NORTHERN NY INTO
NORTHERN VT THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WL BE
POSSIBLE. THINKING AN ADDITIONAL 0.50 TO 1.0 OF QPF WL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE COMMA HEAD PORTION OF THE STORM. PRECIP WL BECOME MAINLY
TRRN DRIVEN AFT 03Z...WITH UPSLOPE FLW AND SOME BLOCKING SIGNATURE
NOTED ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES. WL CONT TO MENTION HIGH CAT
POPS ACRS THE DACKS INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS
AND THE CPV. NOTICED 25 TO 35 KNOTS OF FLW AROUND 1000 FEET AGL
TONIGHT...SO THIS WL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT SOME PATCHY FOG
AFT 06Z IS POSSIBLE GIVEN SATURATED BL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
DEEPER VALLEYS. TEMPS WL RANGE FROM L50S TO L/M 60S MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...EVENTUALLY
TRENDING TO VFR TOWARDS/AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUESDAY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NY/VT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KRUT FROM 18-22Z. PRECIP BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH MVFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 12Z WHERE
THEREAFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AT
5-15KTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...









000
FXUS61 KBTV 281959
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
359 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NE CONUS WITH WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT...GOOD WARM AIR
CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...AND WRAP AROUND COMMA
HEAD. THIS POTENT 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY WL LIFT ACRS OUR CWA THRU EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS GREATER ACRS SOUTHERN VT WL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...AS THE BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PIVOT FROM NORTHERN NY INTO
NORTHERN VT THRU MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WL BE
POSSIBLE. THINKING AN ADDITIONAL 0.50 TO 1.0 OF QPF WL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE COMMA HEAD PORTION OF THE STORM. PRECIP WL BECOME MAINLY
TRRN DRIVEN AFT 03Z...WITH UPSLOPE FLW AND SOME BLOCKING SIGNATURE
NOTED ACRS THE CPV/WESTERN SLOPES. WL CONT TO MENTION HIGH CAT
POPS ACRS THE DACKS INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS
AND THE CPV. NOTICED 25 TO 35 KNOTS OF FLW AROUND 1000 FEET AGL
TONIGHT...SO THIS WL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT SOME PATCHY FOG
AFT 06Z IS POSSIBLE GIVEN SATURATED BL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
DEEPER VALLEYS. TEMPS WL RANGE FROM L50S TO L/M 60S MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...EVENTUALLY
TRENDING TO VFR TOWARDS/AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUESDAY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NY/VT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KRUT FROM 18-22Z. PRECIP BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH MVFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 12Z WHERE
THEREAFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AT
5-15KTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...










000
FXUS61 KALY 281949
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
349 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH VALID UNTIL 8 PM...

CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD STILL
TRACKING EAST AND A FEW STORMS COULD STILL BECOME SEVERE IN AN
NEAR THE WATCH AREA. THE STORMS ARE MOVING...SO THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IS NOT HIGH OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS WHERE SOME ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE BERKSHIRES. RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
EVENTUALLY OUT OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK...BUT UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER OUR REGION IN THE
WAKE OF ALL THE RAIN SUGGESTS SOME AREAS MAY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE STEADY ALL
NIGHT...SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
PERSISTING IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO...NOT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SOME UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TOMORROW...WITH AROUND 70 TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 50S...WITH
40S IN COLDER SPOTS.

BROAD UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...SO
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY SPREADING EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.  DURING THIS TIME...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST.  THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT TO
OUR REGION COUPLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN A
STAGNANT AIR MASS OF GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY THAT WILL MEAN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL HAVE REACHED ONLY THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY...AND THUS SHALL PROVIDE NO
RELIEF TO OUR REGION.

THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE NOTABLE VARIATION IN THE TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE LOWER MID
HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON AND LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...THOUGH
READINGS MAY HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS IN ALBANY THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST ARE
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE
CATSKILLS...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 20-30 MPH. WE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT
ALL THE TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THAT HIT A TERMINAL SITE.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SO LOCALIZED FOG IS
A THREAT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE 40 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME
STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 281949
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
349 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH VALID UNTIL 8 PM...

CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD STILL
TRACKING EAST AND A FEW STORMS COULD STILL BECOME SEVERE IN AN
NEAR THE WATCH AREA. THE STORMS ARE MOVING...SO THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IS NOT HIGH OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS WHERE SOME ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE BERKSHIRES. RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
EVENTUALLY OUT OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK...BUT UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER OUR REGION IN THE
WAKE OF ALL THE RAIN SUGGESTS SOME AREAS MAY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE STEADY ALL
NIGHT...SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
PERSISTING IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO...NOT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SOME UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TOMORROW...WITH AROUND 70 TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 50S...WITH
40S IN COLDER SPOTS.

BROAD UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...SO
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY SPREADING EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.  DURING THIS TIME...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST.  THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT TO
OUR REGION COUPLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN A
STAGNANT AIR MASS OF GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY THAT WILL MEAN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL HAVE REACHED ONLY THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY...AND THUS SHALL PROVIDE NO
RELIEF TO OUR REGION.

THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE NOTABLE VARIATION IN THE TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE LOWER MID
HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON AND LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...THOUGH
READINGS MAY HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS IN ALBANY THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST ARE
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE
CATSKILLS...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 20-30 MPH. WE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT
ALL THE TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THAT HIT A TERMINAL SITE.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SO LOCALIZED FOG IS
A THREAT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE 40 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME
STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 281949
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
349 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH VALID UNTIL 8 PM...

CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD STILL
TRACKING EAST AND A FEW STORMS COULD STILL BECOME SEVERE IN AN
NEAR THE WATCH AREA. THE STORMS ARE MOVING...SO THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IS NOT HIGH OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS WHERE SOME ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE BERKSHIRES. RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
EVENTUALLY OUT OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK...BUT UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER OUR REGION IN THE
WAKE OF ALL THE RAIN SUGGESTS SOME AREAS MAY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE STEADY ALL
NIGHT...SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
PERSISTING IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO...NOT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SOME UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TOMORROW...WITH AROUND 70 TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 50S...WITH
40S IN COLDER SPOTS.

BROAD UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...SO
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY SPREADING EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.  DURING THIS TIME...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST.  THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT TO
OUR REGION COUPLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN A
STAGNANT AIR MASS OF GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY THAT WILL MEAN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL HAVE REACHED ONLY THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY...AND THUS SHALL PROVIDE NO
RELIEF TO OUR REGION.

THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE NOTABLE VARIATION IN THE TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE LOWER MID
HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON AND LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...THOUGH
READINGS MAY HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS IN ALBANY THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST ARE
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE
CATSKILLS...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 20-30 MPH. WE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT
ALL THE TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THAT HIT A TERMINAL SITE.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SO LOCALIZED FOG IS
A THREAT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE 40 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME
STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 281949
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
349 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH VALID UNTIL 8 PM...

CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD STILL
TRACKING EAST AND A FEW STORMS COULD STILL BECOME SEVERE IN AN
NEAR THE WATCH AREA. THE STORMS ARE MOVING...SO THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IS NOT HIGH OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS WHERE SOME ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE BERKSHIRES. RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
EVENTUALLY OUT OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK...BUT UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER OUR REGION IN THE
WAKE OF ALL THE RAIN SUGGESTS SOME AREAS MAY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE STEADY ALL
NIGHT...SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
PERSISTING IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO...NOT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SOME UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TOMORROW...WITH AROUND 70 TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 50S...WITH
40S IN COLDER SPOTS.

BROAD UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...SO
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY SPREADING EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.  DURING THIS TIME...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST.  THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT TO
OUR REGION COUPLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN A
STAGNANT AIR MASS OF GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY THAT WILL MEAN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL HAVE REACHED ONLY THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY...AND THUS SHALL PROVIDE NO
RELIEF TO OUR REGION.

THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE NOTABLE VARIATION IN THE TEMPERATURE
PATTERN...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE LOWER MID
HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON AND LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...THOUGH
READINGS MAY HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS IN ALBANY THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST ARE
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE
CATSKILLS...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 20-30 MPH. WE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT
ALL THE TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THAT HIT A TERMINAL SITE.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SO LOCALIZED FOG IS
A THREAT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE 40 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME
STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 281902
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
302 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT MONDAY...UPDATED TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH BOX #452 FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT. LATEST LAPS SHOW SFC
BASED CAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG ACRS THIS
REGION. THINKING THE BEST CHC FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WL BE
ACRS RUTLAND...WINDSOR...AND ORANGE COUNTIES THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN
VT...WITH COMMA HEAD MOISTURE/LIFT ACRS WESTERN/NORTHERN NY.
WATCHING POTENT 5H VORT CROSSING SOUTHERN/EASTERN NY ATTM...WHICH
HAS HELPED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THIS
CONVECTION WL IMPACT SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT THIS AFTN...WITH STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. HAVE UPDATED TO
MENTION GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACRS THIS
REGION THIS AFTN. LATEST BTV4 SHOWS CAPE VALUES BTWN 1500 AND 2000
J/KG...0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AROUND 35 KNOTS...AND LOWERING FREEZING/WET
BULB ZERO HGHTS AS THE CLOSED 5H/7H APPROACHES...SUPPORTING A HAIL
THREAT. ALSO...WL CONT TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACRS NORTHERN DACKS ASSOCIATED WITH
DEFORMATION ZNS...AND ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES WITH STRONGER
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT. TEMPS HAVE JUMPED INTO THE
70S WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST NEAR VSF...BUT ARE STRUGGLING
IN THE U50S/L60S ACRS THE DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...EVENTUALLY
TRENDING TO VFR TOWARDS/AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUESDAY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NY/VT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KRUT FROM 18-22Z. PRECIP BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH MVFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 12Z WHERE
THEREAFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AT
5-15KTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF








000
FXUS61 KBTV 281817
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
217 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT MONDAY...UPDATED TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH BOX #452 FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT. LATEST LAPS SHOW SFC
BASED CAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG ACRS THIS
REGION. THINKING THE BEST CHC FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WL BE
ACRS RUTLAND...WINDSOR...AND ORANGE COUNTIES THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN
VT...WITH COMMA HEAD MOISTURE/LIFT ACRS WESTERN/NORTHERN NY.
WATCHING POTENT 5H VORT CROSSING SOUTHERN/EASTERN NY ATTM...WHICH
HAS HELPED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THIS
CONVECTION WL IMPACT SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT THIS AFTN...WITH STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. HAVE UPDATED TO
MENTION GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACRS THIS
REGION THIS AFTN. LATEST BTV4 SHOWS CAPE VALUES BTWN 1500 AND 2000
J/KG...0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AROUND 35 KNOTS...AND LOWERING FREEZING/WET
BULB ZERO HGHTS AS THE CLOSED 5H/7H APPROACHES...SUPPORTING A HAIL
THREAT. ALSO...WL CONT TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACRS NORTHERN DACKS ASSOCIATED WITH
DEFORMATION ZNS...AND ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES WITH STRONGER
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT. TEMPS HAVE JUMPED INTO THE
70S WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST NEAR VSF...BUT ARE STRUGGLING
IN THE U50S/L60S ACRS THE DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...EVENTUALLY
TRENDING TO VFR TOWARDS/AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUESDAY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NY/VT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KRUT FROM 18-22Z. PRECIP BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH MVFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 12Z WHERE
THEREAFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AT
5-15KTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 281817
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
217 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT MONDAY...UPDATED TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH BOX #452 FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT. LATEST LAPS SHOW SFC
BASED CAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG ACRS THIS
REGION. THINKING THE BEST CHC FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WL BE
ACRS RUTLAND...WINDSOR...AND ORANGE COUNTIES THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN
VT...WITH COMMA HEAD MOISTURE/LIFT ACRS WESTERN/NORTHERN NY.
WATCHING POTENT 5H VORT CROSSING SOUTHERN/EASTERN NY ATTM...WHICH
HAS HELPED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THIS
CONVECTION WL IMPACT SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT THIS AFTN...WITH STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. HAVE UPDATED TO
MENTION GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACRS THIS
REGION THIS AFTN. LATEST BTV4 SHOWS CAPE VALUES BTWN 1500 AND 2000
J/KG...0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AROUND 35 KNOTS...AND LOWERING FREEZING/WET
BULB ZERO HGHTS AS THE CLOSED 5H/7H APPROACHES...SUPPORTING A HAIL
THREAT. ALSO...WL CONT TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACRS NORTHERN DACKS ASSOCIATED WITH
DEFORMATION ZNS...AND ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES WITH STRONGER
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT. TEMPS HAVE JUMPED INTO THE
70S WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST NEAR VSF...BUT ARE STRUGGLING
IN THE U50S/L60S ACRS THE DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...EVENTUALLY
TRENDING TO VFR TOWARDS/AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUESDAY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NY/VT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KRUT FROM 18-22Z. PRECIP BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH MVFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 12Z WHERE
THEREAFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AT
5-15KTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 281817
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
217 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT MONDAY...UPDATED TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH BOX #452 FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT. LATEST LAPS SHOW SFC
BASED CAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG ACRS THIS
REGION. THINKING THE BEST CHC FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WL BE
ACRS RUTLAND...WINDSOR...AND ORANGE COUNTIES THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN
VT...WITH COMMA HEAD MOISTURE/LIFT ACRS WESTERN/NORTHERN NY.
WATCHING POTENT 5H VORT CROSSING SOUTHERN/EASTERN NY ATTM...WHICH
HAS HELPED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THIS
CONVECTION WL IMPACT SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT THIS AFTN...WITH STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. HAVE UPDATED TO
MENTION GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACRS THIS
REGION THIS AFTN. LATEST BTV4 SHOWS CAPE VALUES BTWN 1500 AND 2000
J/KG...0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AROUND 35 KNOTS...AND LOWERING FREEZING/WET
BULB ZERO HGHTS AS THE CLOSED 5H/7H APPROACHES...SUPPORTING A HAIL
THREAT. ALSO...WL CONT TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACRS NORTHERN DACKS ASSOCIATED WITH
DEFORMATION ZNS...AND ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES WITH STRONGER
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT. TEMPS HAVE JUMPED INTO THE
70S WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST NEAR VSF...BUT ARE STRUGGLING
IN THE U50S/L60S ACRS THE DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...EVENTUALLY
TRENDING TO VFR TOWARDS/AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUESDAY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NY/VT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KRUT FROM 18-22Z. PRECIP BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH MVFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 12Z WHERE
THEREAFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AT
5-15KTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 281817
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
217 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT MONDAY...UPDATED TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH BOX #452 FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT. LATEST LAPS SHOW SFC
BASED CAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG ACRS THIS
REGION. THINKING THE BEST CHC FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WL BE
ACRS RUTLAND...WINDSOR...AND ORANGE COUNTIES THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN
VT...WITH COMMA HEAD MOISTURE/LIFT ACRS WESTERN/NORTHERN NY.
WATCHING POTENT 5H VORT CROSSING SOUTHERN/EASTERN NY ATTM...WHICH
HAS HELPED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THIS
CONVECTION WL IMPACT SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT THIS AFTN...WITH STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. HAVE UPDATED TO
MENTION GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACRS THIS
REGION THIS AFTN. LATEST BTV4 SHOWS CAPE VALUES BTWN 1500 AND 2000
J/KG...0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AROUND 35 KNOTS...AND LOWERING FREEZING/WET
BULB ZERO HGHTS AS THE CLOSED 5H/7H APPROACHES...SUPPORTING A HAIL
THREAT. ALSO...WL CONT TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACRS NORTHERN DACKS ASSOCIATED WITH
DEFORMATION ZNS...AND ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES WITH STRONGER
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT. TEMPS HAVE JUMPED INTO THE
70S WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST NEAR VSF...BUT ARE STRUGGLING
IN THE U50S/L60S ACRS THE DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...EVENTUALLY
TRENDING TO VFR TOWARDS/AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUESDAY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NY/VT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KRUT FROM 18-22Z. PRECIP BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH MVFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 12Z WHERE
THEREAFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AT
5-15KTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KALY 281816
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
216 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...INCLUDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...VALID UNTIL 8 PM...

UPPER IMPULSE PIVOTING EAST NOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND TWO
DISTINCT AREAS OF VORTICITY SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY...ONE BETWEEN
RME/GTB AND THE OTHER NEAR BGM. CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER
CLOUDINESS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO WARM A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENT FORECAST...SO SOME
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTING RAIN
CHANCES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND INCLUDING WORDING FOR GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

UPPER IMPULSES LIKE THIS ONE CAN ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...SO WILL SUGGEST AREAS OF
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME AREAS...WITH ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS TIME. ANTECEDENT RAINFALL HEAVIEST IN WESTERN MA/VT AND
NORTHERN TACONICS OF NY...WHERE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN IN THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS.

INTERESTING 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH OBVIOUS COOLING
ALOFT BETWEEN KBUF AND KALB...SO AGAIN...CHANCES FOR SEVERE ARE
PRESENT BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED...ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD AND VORTICITY CENTERS SEEN ON
RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE
CATSKILLS...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 20-30 MPH. WE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT
ALL THE TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THAT HIT A TERMINAL SITE.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SO LOCALIZED FOG IS
A THREAT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 281816
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
216 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...INCLUDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...VALID UNTIL 8 PM...

UPPER IMPULSE PIVOTING EAST NOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND TWO
DISTINCT AREAS OF VORTICITY SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY...ONE BETWEEN
RME/GTB AND THE OTHER NEAR BGM. CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER
CLOUDINESS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO WARM A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENT FORECAST...SO SOME
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTING RAIN
CHANCES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND INCLUDING WORDING FOR GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

UPPER IMPULSES LIKE THIS ONE CAN ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...SO WILL SUGGEST AREAS OF
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME AREAS...WITH ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS TIME. ANTECEDENT RAINFALL HEAVIEST IN WESTERN MA/VT AND
NORTHERN TACONICS OF NY...WHERE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN IN THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS.

INTERESTING 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH OBVIOUS COOLING
ALOFT BETWEEN KBUF AND KALB...SO AGAIN...CHANCES FOR SEVERE ARE
PRESENT BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED...ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD AND VORTICITY CENTERS SEEN ON
RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE
CATSKILLS...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 20-30 MPH. WE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT
ALL THE TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THAT HIT A TERMINAL SITE.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SO LOCALIZED FOG IS
A THREAT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 281757
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
157 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER IMPULSE PIVOTING EAST NOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND TWO
DISTINCT AREAS OF VORTICITY SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY...ONE BETWEEN
RME/GTB AND THE OTHER NEAR BGM. CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER
CLOUDINESS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO WARM A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENT FORECAST...SO SOME
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTING RAIN
CHANCES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND INCLUDING WORDING FOR GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

UPPER IMPULSES LIKE THIS ONE CAN ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...SO WILL SUGGEST AREAS OF
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME AREAS...WITH ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS TIME. ANTECEDENT RAINFALL HEAVIEST IN WESTERN MA/VT AND
NORTHERN TACONICS OF NY...WHERE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN IN THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS.

INTERESTING 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH OBVIOUS COOLING
ALOFT BETWEEN KBUF AND KALB...SO AGAIN...CHANCES FOR SEVERE ARE
PRESENT BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED...ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD AND VORTICITY CENTERS SEEN ON
RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE
CATSKILLS...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 20-30 MPH. WE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT
ALL THE TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THAT HIT A TERMINAL SITE.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SO LOCALIZED FOG IS
A THREAT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 281757
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
157 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER IMPULSE PIVOTING EAST NOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND TWO
DISTINCT AREAS OF VORTICITY SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY...ONE BETWEEN
RME/GTB AND THE OTHER NEAR BGM. CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER
CLOUDINESS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO WARM A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENT FORECAST...SO SOME
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTING RAIN
CHANCES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND INCLUDING WORDING FOR GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

UPPER IMPULSES LIKE THIS ONE CAN ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...SO WILL SUGGEST AREAS OF
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME AREAS...WITH ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS TIME. ANTECEDENT RAINFALL HEAVIEST IN WESTERN MA/VT AND
NORTHERN TACONICS OF NY...WHERE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN IN THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS.

INTERESTING 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH OBVIOUS COOLING
ALOFT BETWEEN KBUF AND KALB...SO AGAIN...CHANCES FOR SEVERE ARE
PRESENT BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED...ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD AND VORTICITY CENTERS SEEN ON
RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE
CATSKILLS...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 20-30 MPH. WE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT
ALL THE TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THAT HIT A TERMINAL SITE.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SO LOCALIZED FOG IS
A THREAT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KBTV 281735
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
135 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT MONDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...WITH COMMA HEAD MOISTURE/LIFT ACRS
WESTERN/NORTHERN NY. WATCHING POTENT 5H VORT CROSSING
SOUTHERN/EASTERN NY ATTM...WHICH HAS HELPED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THIS CONVECTION WL IMPACT SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT THIS AFTN...WITH STRONG TO POTENTIALLY A FEW SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE. HAVE UPDATED TO MENTION GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND
HEAVY RAINFALL ACRS THIS REGION THIS AFTN. LATEST BTV4 SHOWS CAPE
VALUES BTWN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG...0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AROUND 35
KNOTS...AND LOWERING FREEZING/WET BULB ZERO HGHTS AS THE CLOSED
5H/7H APPROACHES...SUPPORTING A HAIL THREAT. ALSO...WL CONT TO
MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACRS
NORTHERN DACKS ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION ZNS...AND ANY HEAVIER
RAINFALL RATES WITH STRONGER CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT.
TEMPS HAVE JUMPED INTO THE 70S WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST
NEAR VSF...BUT ARE STRUGGLING IN THE U50S/L60S ACRS THE DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...EVENTUALLY
TRENDING TO VFR TOWARDS/AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUESDAY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NY/VT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KRUT FROM 18-22Z. PRECIP BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH MVFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 12Z WHERE
THEREAFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AT
5-15KTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...LAHIFF







000
FXUS61 KBTV 281735
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
135 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT MONDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...WITH COMMA HEAD MOISTURE/LIFT ACRS
WESTERN/NORTHERN NY. WATCHING POTENT 5H VORT CROSSING
SOUTHERN/EASTERN NY ATTM...WHICH HAS HELPED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THIS CONVECTION WL IMPACT SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT THIS AFTN...WITH STRONG TO POTENTIALLY A FEW SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE. HAVE UPDATED TO MENTION GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND
HEAVY RAINFALL ACRS THIS REGION THIS AFTN. LATEST BTV4 SHOWS CAPE
VALUES BTWN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG...0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AROUND 35
KNOTS...AND LOWERING FREEZING/WET BULB ZERO HGHTS AS THE CLOSED
5H/7H APPROACHES...SUPPORTING A HAIL THREAT. ALSO...WL CONT TO
MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACRS
NORTHERN DACKS ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION ZNS...AND ANY HEAVIER
RAINFALL RATES WITH STRONGER CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT.
TEMPS HAVE JUMPED INTO THE 70S WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST
NEAR VSF...BUT ARE STRUGGLING IN THE U50S/L60S ACRS THE DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE BTV AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...EVENTUALLY
TRENDING TO VFR TOWARDS/AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUESDAY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NY/VT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KRUT FROM 18-22Z. PRECIP BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z WITH MVFR/IFR TRENDING TO VFR AFTER 12Z WHERE
THEREAFTER DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY GO LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AT
5-15KTS FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...LAHIFF








000
FXUS61 KBTV 281732
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
132 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT MONDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...WITH COMMA HEAD MOISTURE/LIFT ACRS
WESTERN/NORTHERN NY. WATCHING POTENT 5H VORT CROSSING
SOUTHERN/EASTERN NY ATTM...WHICH HAS HELPED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THIS CONVECTION WL IMPACT SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT THIS AFTN...WITH STRONG TO POTENTIALLY A FEW SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE. HAVE UPDATED TO MENTION GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND
HEAVY RAINFALL ACRS THIS REGION THIS AFTN. LATEST BTV4 SHOWS CAPE
VALUES BTWN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG...0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AROUND 35
KNOTS...AND LOWERING FREEZING/WET BULB ZERO HGHTS AS THE CLOSED
5H/7H APPROACHES...SUPPORTING A HAIL THREAT. ALSO...WL CONT TO
MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACRS
NORTHERN DACKS ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION ZNS...AND ANY HEAVIER
RAINFALL RATES WITH STRONGER CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT.
TEMPS HAVE JUMPED INTO THE 70S WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST
NEAR VSF...BUT ARE STRUGGLING IN THE U50S/L60S ACRS THE DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...A WIDE VARIETY OF VARYING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TRENDING
MVFR LOCALLY IFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN
NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO
WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE.

RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING
10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE
WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF BTV/MPV INDICATED WITH VCTS AT RUT THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS
TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK AND COULD BE SOME
G15-20KTS. AT RUT/MPV LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER
TODAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON








000
FXUS61 KBTV 281732
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
132 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT MONDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...WITH COMMA HEAD MOISTURE/LIFT ACRS
WESTERN/NORTHERN NY. WATCHING POTENT 5H VORT CROSSING
SOUTHERN/EASTERN NY ATTM...WHICH HAS HELPED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THIS CONVECTION WL IMPACT SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT THIS AFTN...WITH STRONG TO POTENTIALLY A FEW SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE. HAVE UPDATED TO MENTION GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND
HEAVY RAINFALL ACRS THIS REGION THIS AFTN. LATEST BTV4 SHOWS CAPE
VALUES BTWN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG...0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AROUND 35
KNOTS...AND LOWERING FREEZING/WET BULB ZERO HGHTS AS THE CLOSED
5H/7H APPROACHES...SUPPORTING A HAIL THREAT. ALSO...WL CONT TO
MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACRS
NORTHERN DACKS ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION ZNS...AND ANY HEAVIER
RAINFALL RATES WITH STRONGER CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT.
TEMPS HAVE JUMPED INTO THE 70S WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST
NEAR VSF...BUT ARE STRUGGLING IN THE U50S/L60S ACRS THE DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...A WIDE VARIETY OF VARYING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TRENDING
MVFR LOCALLY IFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN
NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO
WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE.

RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING
10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE
WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF BTV/MPV INDICATED WITH VCTS AT RUT THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS
TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK AND COULD BE SOME
G15-20KTS. AT RUT/MPV LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER
TODAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON









000
FXUS61 KALY 281723
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
123 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER IMPULSE PIVOTING EAST NOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND TWO
DISTINCT AREAS OF VORTICITY SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY...ONE BETWEEN
RME/GTB AND THE OTHER NEAR BGM. CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER
CLOUDINESS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO WARM A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENT FORECAST...SO SOME
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTING RAIN
CHANCES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND INCLUDING WORDING FOR GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

UPPER IMPULSES LIKE THIS ONE CAN ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...SO WILL SUGGEST AREAS OF
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME AREAS...WITH ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS TIME. ANTECEDENT RAINFALL HEAVIEST IN WESTERN MA/VT AND
NORTHERN TACONICS OF NY...WHERE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN IN THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS.

INTERESTING 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH OBVIOUS COOLING
ALOFT BETWEEN KBUF AND KALB...SO AGAIN...CHANCES FOR SEVERE ARE
PRESENT BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED...ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD AND VORTICITY CENTERS SEEN ON
RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND ARE DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN FLYING CONDITIONS...ESP AT KPSF.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND
IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTERED OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 281723
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
123 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER IMPULSE PIVOTING EAST NOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND TWO
DISTINCT AREAS OF VORTICITY SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY...ONE BETWEEN
RME/GTB AND THE OTHER NEAR BGM. CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER
CLOUDINESS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO WARM A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENT FORECAST...SO SOME
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTING RAIN
CHANCES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND INCLUDING WORDING FOR GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

UPPER IMPULSES LIKE THIS ONE CAN ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...SO WILL SUGGEST AREAS OF
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME AREAS...WITH ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS TIME. ANTECEDENT RAINFALL HEAVIEST IN WESTERN MA/VT AND
NORTHERN TACONICS OF NY...WHERE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN IN THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS.

INTERESTING 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH OBVIOUS COOLING
ALOFT BETWEEN KBUF AND KALB...SO AGAIN...CHANCES FOR SEVERE ARE
PRESENT BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED...ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD AND VORTICITY CENTERS SEEN ON
RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND ARE DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN FLYING CONDITIONS...ESP AT KPSF.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND
IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTERED OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 281723
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
123 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER IMPULSE PIVOTING EAST NOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND TWO
DISTINCT AREAS OF VORTICITY SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY...ONE BETWEEN
RME/GTB AND THE OTHER NEAR BGM. CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER
CLOUDINESS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO WARM A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENT FORECAST...SO SOME
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTING RAIN
CHANCES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND INCLUDING WORDING FOR GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

UPPER IMPULSES LIKE THIS ONE CAN ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...SO WILL SUGGEST AREAS OF
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME AREAS...WITH ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS TIME. ANTECEDENT RAINFALL HEAVIEST IN WESTERN MA/VT AND
NORTHERN TACONICS OF NY...WHERE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN IN THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS.

INTERESTING 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH OBVIOUS COOLING
ALOFT BETWEEN KBUF AND KALB...SO AGAIN...CHANCES FOR SEVERE ARE
PRESENT BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED...ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD AND VORTICITY CENTERS SEEN ON
RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND ARE DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN FLYING CONDITIONS...ESP AT KPSF.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND
IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTERED OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 281723
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
123 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER IMPULSE PIVOTING EAST NOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND TWO
DISTINCT AREAS OF VORTICITY SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY...ONE BETWEEN
RME/GTB AND THE OTHER NEAR BGM. CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER
CLOUDINESS IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN NY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO WARM A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENT FORECAST...SO SOME
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTING RAIN
CHANCES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND INCLUDING WORDING FOR GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

UPPER IMPULSES LIKE THIS ONE CAN ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...SO WILL SUGGEST AREAS OF
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME AREAS...WITH ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS TIME. ANTECEDENT RAINFALL HEAVIEST IN WESTERN MA/VT AND
NORTHERN TACONICS OF NY...WHERE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN IN THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS.

INTERESTING 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH OBVIOUS COOLING
ALOFT BETWEEN KBUF AND KALB...SO AGAIN...CHANCES FOR SEVERE ARE
PRESENT BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED...ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER COMMA HEAD AND VORTICITY CENTERS SEEN ON
RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND ARE DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN FLYING CONDITIONS...ESP AT KPSF.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND
IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTERED OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 281519
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1119 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1115 AM...STEADIEST RAIN/SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
HERKIMER...HAMILTON AND NORTHWEST WARREN COUNTY. ALSO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER LITCHFIELD...BERKSHIRE BENNINGTON AND WINDHAM
COUNTIES. ANOTHER AREA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS STARTING TO DEVELOP
JUST WEST OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA IN CENTRAL NY. NEAREST
LIGHTNING IS TO OUR WEST...JUST SOUTH OF SYRACUSE NY. BREAKS IN
OVERCAST STARTING TO DEVELOP FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD. GOING FORECAST
HAS TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 70S OVER MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY LATER TODAY. BASED ON 12Z ALBANY/BUFFALO
SOUNDINGS...THIS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST HI RES MODELS SHOW STORMS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
1 AND 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST OF THE ACTION OVER BY
10 PM.

MINOR CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR TODAY BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE PICTURES AND RADAR ECHOES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND ARE DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN FLYING CONDITIONS...ESP AT KPSF.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND
IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTERED OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 281519
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1119 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1115 AM...STEADIEST RAIN/SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
HERKIMER...HAMILTON AND NORTHWEST WARREN COUNTY. ALSO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER LITCHFIELD...BERKSHIRE BENNINGTON AND WINDHAM
COUNTIES. ANOTHER AREA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS STARTING TO DEVELOP
JUST WEST OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA IN CENTRAL NY. NEAREST
LIGHTNING IS TO OUR WEST...JUST SOUTH OF SYRACUSE NY. BREAKS IN
OVERCAST STARTING TO DEVELOP FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD. GOING FORECAST
HAS TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 70S OVER MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY LATER TODAY. BASED ON 12Z ALBANY/BUFFALO
SOUNDINGS...THIS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST HI RES MODELS SHOW STORMS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
1 AND 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST OF THE ACTION OVER BY
10 PM.

MINOR CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR TODAY BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE PICTURES AND RADAR ECHOES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND ARE DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN FLYING CONDITIONS...ESP AT KPSF.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND
IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTERED OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KBTV 281426
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1026 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1014 AM EDT MONDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST TRENDS
AND INCREASE 6HR QPF GRIDS ACRS CENTRAL VT AND LWR CT RIVER
VALLEY. HAVE NOTICED 1 HR QPF AMOUNTS BTWN 0.30 AND 0.60"
ASSOCIATED WITH BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL LIFTING ACRS
CENTRAL VT ATTM. RUTLAND RECEIVED 0.44"...WITH NORTH HARTLAND
LAKE HADS REPORTING A 3 HR TOTAL OF 1.16 INCHES. THIS BAND WL CONT
TO MOVE NORTH AND IMPACT ALL OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT THRU 18Z
TODAY. ALSO...A BATCH OF MODERATE RAIN WL CONT ACRS NORTHERN
NY...INCLUDING THE SLV WITH LIGHTER RAINFALL RATES. EXPECTING
MID/UPPER LVL DRY SLOT TO DEVELOP ACRS SOUTHERN VT ZNS LATE THIS
MORNING...WHICH WL PROVIDE REGION WITH TEMPORARY BREAK IN
ACTION...BUT AS POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ACRS
CENTRAL NY APPROACHES THE REGION...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
STORMS WL REDEVELOP BY NOON TODAY. THESE STORMS WL BE CONVECTIVE
IN NATURE AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WL
BE LIKELY. LATEST HRRR MODELS SHOWS THIS IDEA VERY WELL...ESPECIALLY
WITH REGARDS TO DEVELOPING SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND MODEST 0 TO 6
KM SHEAR...TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW A
TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING...MAINLY ACRS RUTLAND/WINDSOR AND ORANGE COUNTIES.
WL WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND RAINFALL RATES VERY CAREFULLY THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...
TEMPS WL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE L60S
DACKS TO M70S LWR CT RIVER VALLEY.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MONDAY
FOLLOWS...

ACTIVE MONDAY WEATHER-WISE FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...FEATURING A
DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM PRODUCING SEVERAL ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH
INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN
EASTERN VT. FRANKLY...THE UPPER- LEVEL PATTERN AND RELATED DEGREE
OF LARGE- SCALE FORCING RESEMBLES SPRING MORE THAN LATE JULY.

BIG PICTURE...SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR KROC ALONG A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WHICH EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY PLATEAU AND NORTHWARD
TO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. ALOFT...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OHIO WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG 500 MB
JETSTREAK AT TROUGH BASE (EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY BY A PRONOUNCED
DRYSLOT PUNCHING INTO WESTERN PA). THERE`S NOT A VERY CLEAR
CONSENSUS IN 00Z GUIDANCE WHERE THE SFC CYCLONE TRACKS
TODAY...WITH THE NAM AND SREF MEAN BEING FURTHER TO THE WEST (AN
ADIRONDACKS TO MONTREAL TRACK) AND GLOBAL MODELS TAKING MORE OF A
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN NH TRACK. I`VE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL: ONGOING BAND OF MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD...ALIGNED
ROUGHLY ON 850-500 MB DEFORMATION AXIS. THAT BAND OF RAIN WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. CATEGORICAL POPS
THROUGH TODAY WITH RAIN FALLING HEAVY AT TIMES. THINK THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN `DACKS AND EAST-
FACING GREEN MTN SLOPES AIDED BY SE UPSLOPE. MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE
RUNNING LOW SO I DON`T ANTICIPATE THERE BEING WIDESPREAD HYDRO
ISSUES. HOWEVER EXPECT GRADUAL RIVER RISES TODAY...WITH PERHAPS
MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN THUNDER AND ENHANCED
RAINFALL RATES. FORECAST QPF THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY IS A HEAVY MODEL
BLEND - WHICH BRINGS A GENERAL 1" BUT AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5" ARE SHOWN
FROM THE EASTERN `DACKS...NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND HIGHER
PEAKS OF THE GREENS.

STG/SVR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL: THIS IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON THERE
BEING ENOUGH BREAKS IN OVERCAST - WHICH MAY HAPPEN IN EASTERN VT AS
DRYSLOT MOVES ACROSS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PROGGED CAPES ARE AS HIGH
AS 1000-1200 J/KG IN NAM/WRF ACROSS EASTERN VT...LESS SO IN THE GFS.
SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE HIGHER FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL HAVE AROUND
30-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THROW IN GOOD SYNOPTIC ASCENT WHICH
COULD OVERCOME LOW INSTABILITY AND I COULD SEE THERE BEING A FEW
STRONG STORMS ACROSS EASTERN VT. SPC HAS THIS AREA OUTLINED IN A
SEE TEXT AREA TODAY. THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
INSTABILITY...OPTED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS.

TEMPS TODAY ARE TRICKY. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY A FEW DEGS ACROSS
NORTHERN NY AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNDER OVERCAST AND RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS IN THIS AREA GENERALLY IN THE 60S/AROUND 70
TO THE MID 70S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS
IN CLOUDS EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...A WIDE VARIETY OF VARYING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TRENDING
MVFR LOCALLY IFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN
NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO
WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE.

RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING
10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE
WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF BTV/MPV INDICATED WITH VCTS AT RUT THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS
TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK AND COULD BE SOME
G15-20KTS. AT RUT/MPV LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER
TODAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON








000
FXUS61 KBTV 281426
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1026 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1014 AM EDT MONDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST TRENDS
AND INCREASE 6HR QPF GRIDS ACRS CENTRAL VT AND LWR CT RIVER
VALLEY. HAVE NOTICED 1 HR QPF AMOUNTS BTWN 0.30 AND 0.60"
ASSOCIATED WITH BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL LIFTING ACRS
CENTRAL VT ATTM. RUTLAND RECEIVED 0.44"...WITH NORTH HARTLAND
LAKE HADS REPORTING A 3 HR TOTAL OF 1.16 INCHES. THIS BAND WL CONT
TO MOVE NORTH AND IMPACT ALL OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT THRU 18Z
TODAY. ALSO...A BATCH OF MODERATE RAIN WL CONT ACRS NORTHERN
NY...INCLUDING THE SLV WITH LIGHTER RAINFALL RATES. EXPECTING
MID/UPPER LVL DRY SLOT TO DEVELOP ACRS SOUTHERN VT ZNS LATE THIS
MORNING...WHICH WL PROVIDE REGION WITH TEMPORARY BREAK IN
ACTION...BUT AS POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ACRS
CENTRAL NY APPROACHES THE REGION...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
STORMS WL REDEVELOP BY NOON TODAY. THESE STORMS WL BE CONVECTIVE
IN NATURE AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WL
BE LIKELY. LATEST HRRR MODELS SHOWS THIS IDEA VERY WELL...ESPECIALLY
WITH REGARDS TO DEVELOPING SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND MODEST 0 TO 6
KM SHEAR...TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE SOUNDINGS SHOW A
TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING...MAINLY ACRS RUTLAND/WINDSOR AND ORANGE COUNTIES.
WL WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND RAINFALL RATES VERY CAREFULLY THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...
TEMPS WL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE L60S
DACKS TO M70S LWR CT RIVER VALLEY.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MONDAY
FOLLOWS...

ACTIVE MONDAY WEATHER-WISE FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...FEATURING A
DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM PRODUCING SEVERAL ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH
INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN
EASTERN VT. FRANKLY...THE UPPER- LEVEL PATTERN AND RELATED DEGREE
OF LARGE- SCALE FORCING RESEMBLES SPRING MORE THAN LATE JULY.

BIG PICTURE...SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR KROC ALONG A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WHICH EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY PLATEAU AND NORTHWARD
TO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. ALOFT...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OHIO WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG 500 MB
JETSTREAK AT TROUGH BASE (EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY BY A PRONOUNCED
DRYSLOT PUNCHING INTO WESTERN PA). THERE`S NOT A VERY CLEAR
CONSENSUS IN 00Z GUIDANCE WHERE THE SFC CYCLONE TRACKS
TODAY...WITH THE NAM AND SREF MEAN BEING FURTHER TO THE WEST (AN
ADIRONDACKS TO MONTREAL TRACK) AND GLOBAL MODELS TAKING MORE OF A
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN NH TRACK. I`VE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL: ONGOING BAND OF MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD...ALIGNED
ROUGHLY ON 850-500 MB DEFORMATION AXIS. THAT BAND OF RAIN WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. CATEGORICAL POPS
THROUGH TODAY WITH RAIN FALLING HEAVY AT TIMES. THINK THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN `DACKS AND EAST-
FACING GREEN MTN SLOPES AIDED BY SE UPSLOPE. MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE
RUNNING LOW SO I DON`T ANTICIPATE THERE BEING WIDESPREAD HYDRO
ISSUES. HOWEVER EXPECT GRADUAL RIVER RISES TODAY...WITH PERHAPS
MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN THUNDER AND ENHANCED
RAINFALL RATES. FORECAST QPF THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY IS A HEAVY MODEL
BLEND - WHICH BRINGS A GENERAL 1" BUT AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5" ARE SHOWN
FROM THE EASTERN `DACKS...NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND HIGHER
PEAKS OF THE GREENS.

STG/SVR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL: THIS IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON THERE
BEING ENOUGH BREAKS IN OVERCAST - WHICH MAY HAPPEN IN EASTERN VT AS
DRYSLOT MOVES ACROSS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PROGGED CAPES ARE AS HIGH
AS 1000-1200 J/KG IN NAM/WRF ACROSS EASTERN VT...LESS SO IN THE GFS.
SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE HIGHER FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL HAVE AROUND
30-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THROW IN GOOD SYNOPTIC ASCENT WHICH
COULD OVERCOME LOW INSTABILITY AND I COULD SEE THERE BEING A FEW
STRONG STORMS ACROSS EASTERN VT. SPC HAS THIS AREA OUTLINED IN A
SEE TEXT AREA TODAY. THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
INSTABILITY...OPTED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS.

TEMPS TODAY ARE TRICKY. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY A FEW DEGS ACROSS
NORTHERN NY AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNDER OVERCAST AND RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS IN THIS AREA GENERALLY IN THE 60S/AROUND 70
TO THE MID 70S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS
IN CLOUDS EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...A WIDE VARIETY OF VARYING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TRENDING
MVFR LOCALLY IFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN
NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO
WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE.

RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING
10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE
WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF BTV/MPV INDICATED WITH VCTS AT RUT THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS
TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK AND COULD BE SOME
G15-20KTS. AT RUT/MPV LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER
TODAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON









000
FXUS61 KALY 281304
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
904 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK TODAY...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

AS OF 855 AM...UPDATE TO REMOVE LIKELY POPS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90
IN LINE WITH RADAR ECHOES. CHANGED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MORNING
HOURS WITH HIGHER POPS DURING AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AND ALONG
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

12Z ALBANY UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN AREAS THAT SEE
SUNSHINE DEVELOP. WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVERHEAD THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY LOOKS TO HAVE THE MOST
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER LATER TODAY.

PREVIOUS...
THE SURFACE LOW IS WELL FORECAST TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. IT WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH. THE STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR TODAY AS THE VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO AND OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT. THE LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
WE WILL ACHIEVE DUE TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER THE
AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. IN ADDITION
VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND STRENGTHENING OF WINDS WITH
HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS
TO ACQUIRE ROTATION OR ORGANIZE INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "SEE TEXT" DUE TO THIS
CONDITIONAL THREAT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING OF GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND ARE DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN FLYING CONDITIONS...ESP AT KPSF.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND
IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTERED OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...IAA/SND
SHORT TERM...IAA LONG
TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 281304
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
904 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK TODAY...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

AS OF 855 AM...UPDATE TO REMOVE LIKELY POPS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90
IN LINE WITH RADAR ECHOES. CHANGED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MORNING
HOURS WITH HIGHER POPS DURING AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AND ALONG
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

12Z ALBANY UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN AREAS THAT SEE
SUNSHINE DEVELOP. WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVERHEAD THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY LOOKS TO HAVE THE MOST
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER LATER TODAY.

PREVIOUS...
THE SURFACE LOW IS WELL FORECAST TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. IT WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH. THE STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR TODAY AS THE VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO AND OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT. THE LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
WE WILL ACHIEVE DUE TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER THE
AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. IN ADDITION
VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND STRENGTHENING OF WINDS WITH
HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS
TO ACQUIRE ROTATION OR ORGANIZE INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "SEE TEXT" DUE TO THIS
CONDITIONAL THREAT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING OF GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND ARE DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN FLYING CONDITIONS...ESP AT KPSF.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND
IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTERED OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...IAA/SND
SHORT TERM...IAA LONG
TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 281304
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
904 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK TODAY...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

AS OF 855 AM...UPDATE TO REMOVE LIKELY POPS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90
IN LINE WITH RADAR ECHOES. CHANGED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MORNING
HOURS WITH HIGHER POPS DURING AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AND ALONG
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

12Z ALBANY UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN AREAS THAT SEE
SUNSHINE DEVELOP. WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVERHEAD THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY LOOKS TO HAVE THE MOST
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER LATER TODAY.

PREVIOUS...
THE SURFACE LOW IS WELL FORECAST TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. IT WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH. THE STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR TODAY AS THE VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO AND OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT. THE LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
WE WILL ACHIEVE DUE TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER THE
AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. IN ADDITION
VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND STRENGTHENING OF WINDS WITH
HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS
TO ACQUIRE ROTATION OR ORGANIZE INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "SEE TEXT" DUE TO THIS
CONDITIONAL THREAT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING OF GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND ARE DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN FLYING CONDITIONS...ESP AT KPSF.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND
IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTERED OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...IAA/SND
SHORT TERM...IAA LONG
TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 281304
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
904 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK TODAY...WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND
COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

AS OF 855 AM...UPDATE TO REMOVE LIKELY POPS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90
IN LINE WITH RADAR ECHOES. CHANGED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MORNING
HOURS WITH HIGHER POPS DURING AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AND ALONG
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

12Z ALBANY UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN AREAS THAT SEE
SUNSHINE DEVELOP. WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVERHEAD THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY LOOKS TO HAVE THE MOST
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER LATER TODAY.

PREVIOUS...
THE SURFACE LOW IS WELL FORECAST TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. IT WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH. THE STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR TODAY AS THE VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO AND OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT. THE LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
WE WILL ACHIEVE DUE TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER THE
AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. IN ADDITION
VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND STRENGTHENING OF WINDS WITH
HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS
TO ACQUIRE ROTATION OR ORGANIZE INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "SEE TEXT" DUE TO THIS
CONDITIONAL THREAT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING OF GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND ARE DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN FLYING CONDITIONS...ESP AT KPSF.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND
IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTERED OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...IAA/SND
SHORT TERM...IAA LONG
TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KBTV 281145
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
745 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 704 AM EDT MONDAY...NO SIG CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. FOG
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VT BUT LIKELY TO BE
TEMPORARY WITH VISBYS IMPROVING SOME AS RAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD.
SOLID BAND OF MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO PIVOT
NORTHWARD...AND IS NEARING THE BURLINGTON/MONTPELIER/SARANAC LAKE
AREA. HEAVIER RAIN/THUNDER APPROACHING THE MA/VT BORDER WILL MOVE
INTO RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. RADAR
TRENDS SHOW A BREAK IN MODERATE RAIN WITH MORE CELLULAR/SHOWERY
ACTIVITY BREAKING OUT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK. HAVE
TO WATCH AND SEE IF ANY STRONGER CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP IN THAT
AREA AND SPREAD NORTHEAST TODAY. IN FACT...RECENT HRRR AND HI-RES
ARW SHOW A LINE OF CONVECTION FROM ALY TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT
BETWEEN 18-21Z.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MONDAY FOLLOWS...

ACTIVE MONDAY WEATHER-WISE FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...FEATURING A
DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM PRODUCING SEVERAL ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH
INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN
EASTERN VT. FRANKLY...THE UPPER- LEVEL PATTERN AND RELATED DEGREE
OF LARGE- SCALE FORCING RESEMBLES SPRING MORE THAN LATE JULY.

BIG PICTURE...SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR KROC ALONG A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WHICH EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY PLATEAU AND NORTHWARD
TO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. ALOFT...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OHIO WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG 500 MB
JETSTREAK AT TROUGH BASE (EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY BY A PRONOUNCED
DRYSLOT PUNCHING INTO WESTERN PA). THERE`S NOT A VERY CLEAR
CONSENSUS IN 00Z GUIDANCE WHERE THE SFC CYCLONE TRACKS
TODAY...WITH THE NAM AND SREF MEAN BEING FURTHER TO THE WEST (AN
ADIRONDACKS TO MONTREAL TRACK) AND GLOBAL MODELS TAKING MORE OF A
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN NH TRACK. I`VE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL: ONGOING BAND OF MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD...ALIGNED
ROUGHLY ON 850-500 MB DEFORMATION AXIS. THAT BAND OF RAIN WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. CATEGORICAL POPS
THROUGH TODAY WITH RAIN FALLING HEAVY AT TIMES. THINK THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN `DACKS AND EAST-
FACING GREEN MTN SLOPES AIDED BY SE UPSLOPE. MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE
RUNNING LOW SO I DON`T ANTICIPATE THERE BEING WIDESPREAD HYDRO
ISSUES. HOWEVER EXPECT GRADUAL RIVER RISES TODAY...WITH PERHAPS
MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN THUNDER AND ENHANCED
RAINFALL RATES. FORECAST QPF THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY IS A HEAVY MODEL
BLEND - WHICH BRINGS A GENERAL 1" BUT AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5" ARE SHOWN
FROM THE EASTERN `DACKS...NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND HIGHER
PEAKS OF THE GREENS.

STG/SVR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL: THIS IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON THERE
BEING ENOUGH BREAKS IN OVERCAST - WHICH MAY HAPPEN IN EASTERN VT AS
DRYSLOT MOVES ACROSS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PROGGED CAPES ARE AS HIGH
AS 1000-1200 J/KG IN NAM/WRF ACROSS EASTERN VT...LESS SO IN THE GFS.
SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE HIGHER FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL HAVE AROUND
30-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THROW IN GOOD SYNOPTIC ASCENT WHICH
COULD OVERCOME LOW INSTABILITY AND I COULD SEE THERE BEING A FEW
STRONG STORMS ACROSS EASTERN VT. SPC HAS THIS AREA OUTLINED IN A
SEE TEXT AREA TODAY. THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
INSTABILITY...OPTED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS.

TEMPS TODAY ARE TRICKY. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY A FEW DEGS ACROSS
NORTHERN NY AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNDER OVERCAST AND RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS IN THIS AREA GENERALLY IN THE 60S/AROUND 70
TO THE MID 70S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS
IN CLOUDS EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...A WIDE VARIETY OF VARYING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TRENDING
MVFR LOCALLY IFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN
NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO
WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE.

RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING
10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE
WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF BTV/MPV INDICATED WITH VCTS AT RUT THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS
TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK AND COULD BE SOME
G15-20KTS. AT RUT/MPV LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER
TODAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON







000
FXUS61 KBTV 281145
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
745 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 704 AM EDT MONDAY...NO SIG CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. FOG
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VT BUT LIKELY TO BE
TEMPORARY WITH VISBYS IMPROVING SOME AS RAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD.
SOLID BAND OF MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO PIVOT
NORTHWARD...AND IS NEARING THE BURLINGTON/MONTPELIER/SARANAC LAKE
AREA. HEAVIER RAIN/THUNDER APPROACHING THE MA/VT BORDER WILL MOVE
INTO RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. RADAR
TRENDS SHOW A BREAK IN MODERATE RAIN WITH MORE CELLULAR/SHOWERY
ACTIVITY BREAKING OUT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK. HAVE
TO WATCH AND SEE IF ANY STRONGER CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP IN THAT
AREA AND SPREAD NORTHEAST TODAY. IN FACT...RECENT HRRR AND HI-RES
ARW SHOW A LINE OF CONVECTION FROM ALY TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT
BETWEEN 18-21Z.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MONDAY FOLLOWS...

ACTIVE MONDAY WEATHER-WISE FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...FEATURING A
DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM PRODUCING SEVERAL ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH
INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN
EASTERN VT. FRANKLY...THE UPPER- LEVEL PATTERN AND RELATED DEGREE
OF LARGE- SCALE FORCING RESEMBLES SPRING MORE THAN LATE JULY.

BIG PICTURE...SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR KROC ALONG A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WHICH EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY PLATEAU AND NORTHWARD
TO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. ALOFT...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OHIO WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG 500 MB
JETSTREAK AT TROUGH BASE (EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY BY A PRONOUNCED
DRYSLOT PUNCHING INTO WESTERN PA). THERE`S NOT A VERY CLEAR
CONSENSUS IN 00Z GUIDANCE WHERE THE SFC CYCLONE TRACKS
TODAY...WITH THE NAM AND SREF MEAN BEING FURTHER TO THE WEST (AN
ADIRONDACKS TO MONTREAL TRACK) AND GLOBAL MODELS TAKING MORE OF A
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN NH TRACK. I`VE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL: ONGOING BAND OF MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD...ALIGNED
ROUGHLY ON 850-500 MB DEFORMATION AXIS. THAT BAND OF RAIN WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. CATEGORICAL POPS
THROUGH TODAY WITH RAIN FALLING HEAVY AT TIMES. THINK THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN `DACKS AND EAST-
FACING GREEN MTN SLOPES AIDED BY SE UPSLOPE. MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE
RUNNING LOW SO I DON`T ANTICIPATE THERE BEING WIDESPREAD HYDRO
ISSUES. HOWEVER EXPECT GRADUAL RIVER RISES TODAY...WITH PERHAPS
MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN THUNDER AND ENHANCED
RAINFALL RATES. FORECAST QPF THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY IS A HEAVY MODEL
BLEND - WHICH BRINGS A GENERAL 1" BUT AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5" ARE SHOWN
FROM THE EASTERN `DACKS...NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND HIGHER
PEAKS OF THE GREENS.

STG/SVR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL: THIS IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON THERE
BEING ENOUGH BREAKS IN OVERCAST - WHICH MAY HAPPEN IN EASTERN VT AS
DRYSLOT MOVES ACROSS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PROGGED CAPES ARE AS HIGH
AS 1000-1200 J/KG IN NAM/WRF ACROSS EASTERN VT...LESS SO IN THE GFS.
SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE HIGHER FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL HAVE AROUND
30-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THROW IN GOOD SYNOPTIC ASCENT WHICH
COULD OVERCOME LOW INSTABILITY AND I COULD SEE THERE BEING A FEW
STRONG STORMS ACROSS EASTERN VT. SPC HAS THIS AREA OUTLINED IN A
SEE TEXT AREA TODAY. THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
INSTABILITY...OPTED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS.

TEMPS TODAY ARE TRICKY. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY A FEW DEGS ACROSS
NORTHERN NY AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNDER OVERCAST AND RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS IN THIS AREA GENERALLY IN THE 60S/AROUND 70
TO THE MID 70S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS
IN CLOUDS EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...A WIDE VARIETY OF VARYING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TRENDING
MVFR LOCALLY IFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN
NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO
WESTERN ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE.

RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING
10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE
WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF BTV/MPV INDICATED WITH VCTS AT RUT THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS
TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK AND COULD BE SOME
G15-20KTS. AT RUT/MPV LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER
TODAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON








000
FXUS61 KBTV 281105
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
705 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 704 AM EDT MONDAY...NO SIG CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. FOG
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VT BUT LIKELY TO BE
TEMPORARY WITH VISBYS IMPROVING SOME AS RAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD.
SOLID BAND OF MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO PIVOT
NORTHWARD...AND IS NEARING THE BURLINGTON/MONTPELIER/SARANAC LAKE
AREA. HEAVIER RAIN/THUNDER APPROACHING THE MA/VT BORDER WILL MOVE
INTO RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. RADAR
TRENDS SHOW A BREAK IN MODERATE RAIN WITH MORE CELLULAR/SHOWERY
ACTIVITY BREAKING OUT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK. HAVE
TO WATCH AND SEE IF ANY STRONGER CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP IN THAT
AREA AND SPREAD NORTHEAST TODAY. IN FACT...RECENT HRRR AND HI-RES
ARW SHOW A LINE OF CONVECTION FROM ALY TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT
BETWEEN 18-21Z.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MONDAY FOLLOWS...

ACTIVE MONDAY WEATHER-WISE FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...FEATURING A
DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM PRODUCING SEVERAL ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH
INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN
EASTERN VT. FRANKLY...THE UPPER- LEVEL PATTERN AND RELATED DEGREE
OF LARGE- SCALE FORCING RESEMBLES SPRING MORE THAN LATE JULY.

BIG PICTURE...SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR KROC ALONG A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WHICH EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY PLATEAU AND NORTHWARD
TO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. ALOFT...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OHIO WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG 500 MB
JETSTREAK AT TROUGH BASE (EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY BY A PRONOUNCED
DRYSLOT PUNCHING INTO WESTERN PA). THERE`S NOT A VERY CLEAR
CONSENSUS IN 00Z GUIDANCE WHERE THE SFC CYCLONE TRACKS
TODAY...WITH THE NAM AND SREF MEAN BEING FURTHER TO THE WEST (AN
ADIRONDACKS TO MONTREAL TRACK) AND GLOBAL MODELS TAKING MORE OF A
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN NH TRACK. I`VE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL: ONGOING BAND OF MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD...ALIGNED
ROUGHLY ON 850-500 MB DEFORMATION AXIS. THAT BAND OF RAIN WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. CATEGORICAL POPS
THROUGH TODAY WITH RAIN FALLING HEAVY AT TIMES. THINK THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN `DACKS AND EAST-
FACING GREEN MTN SLOPES AIDED BY SE UPSLOPE. MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE
RUNNING LOW SO I DON`T ANTICIPATE THERE BEING WIDESPREAD HYDRO
ISSUES. HOWEVER EXPECT GRADUAL RIVER RISES TODAY...WITH PERHAPS
MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN THUNDER AND ENHANCED
RAINFALL RATES. FORECAST QPF THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY IS A HEAVY MODEL
BLEND - WHICH BRINGS A GENERAL 1" BUT AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5" ARE SHOWN
FROM THE EASTERN `DACKS...NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND HIGHER
PEAKS OF THE GREENS.

STG/SVR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL: THIS IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON THERE
BEING ENOUGH BREAKS IN OVERCAST - WHICH MAY HAPPEN IN EASTERN VT AS
DRYSLOT MOVES ACROSS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PROGGED CAPES ARE AS HIGH
AS 1000-1200 J/KG IN NAM/WRF ACROSS EASTERN VT...LESS SO IN THE GFS.
SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE HIGHER FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL HAVE AROUND
30-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THROW IN GOOD SYNOPTIC ASCENT WHICH
COULD OVERCOME LOW INSTABILITY AND I COULD SEE THERE BEING A FEW
STRONG STORMS ACROSS EASTERN VT. SPC HAS THIS AREA OUTLINED IN A
SEE TEXT AREA TODAY. THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
INSTABILITY...OPTED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS.

TEMPS TODAY ARE TRICKY. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY A FEW DEGS ACROSS
NORTHERN NY AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNDER OVERCAST AND RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS IN THIS AREA GENERALLY IN THE 60S/AROUND 70
TO THE MID 70S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS
IN CLOUDS EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...TRENDING MVFR LOCALLY IFR INITIALLY IN BR/FG
THEN IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
10-12Z AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST
ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN
ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE.

PATCHY FG/BR GIVE WAY TO RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING 10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES.
THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM KSLK EASTWARD AND HAVE INDICATED WITH VCTS.

LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS
TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK. AT RUT/MPV
LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN TAPERING OFF. LOCAL
IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON











000
FXUS61 KBTV 281105
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
705 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 704 AM EDT MONDAY...NO SIG CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. FOG
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF VT BUT LIKELY TO BE
TEMPORARY WITH VISBYS IMPROVING SOME AS RAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD.
SOLID BAND OF MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO PIVOT
NORTHWARD...AND IS NEARING THE BURLINGTON/MONTPELIER/SARANAC LAKE
AREA. HEAVIER RAIN/THUNDER APPROACHING THE MA/VT BORDER WILL MOVE
INTO RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. RADAR
TRENDS SHOW A BREAK IN MODERATE RAIN WITH MORE CELLULAR/SHOWERY
ACTIVITY BREAKING OUT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK. HAVE
TO WATCH AND SEE IF ANY STRONGER CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP IN THAT
AREA AND SPREAD NORTHEAST TODAY. IN FACT...RECENT HRRR AND HI-RES
ARW SHOW A LINE OF CONVECTION FROM ALY TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT
BETWEEN 18-21Z.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT MONDAY FOLLOWS...

ACTIVE MONDAY WEATHER-WISE FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...FEATURING A
DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM PRODUCING SEVERAL ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH
INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN
EASTERN VT. FRANKLY...THE UPPER- LEVEL PATTERN AND RELATED DEGREE
OF LARGE- SCALE FORCING RESEMBLES SPRING MORE THAN LATE JULY.

BIG PICTURE...SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR KROC ALONG A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WHICH EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY PLATEAU AND NORTHWARD
TO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. ALOFT...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OHIO WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG 500 MB
JETSTREAK AT TROUGH BASE (EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY BY A PRONOUNCED
DRYSLOT PUNCHING INTO WESTERN PA). THERE`S NOT A VERY CLEAR
CONSENSUS IN 00Z GUIDANCE WHERE THE SFC CYCLONE TRACKS
TODAY...WITH THE NAM AND SREF MEAN BEING FURTHER TO THE WEST (AN
ADIRONDACKS TO MONTREAL TRACK) AND GLOBAL MODELS TAKING MORE OF A
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN NH TRACK. I`VE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL: ONGOING BAND OF MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD...ALIGNED
ROUGHLY ON 850-500 MB DEFORMATION AXIS. THAT BAND OF RAIN WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. CATEGORICAL POPS
THROUGH TODAY WITH RAIN FALLING HEAVY AT TIMES. THINK THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN `DACKS AND EAST-
FACING GREEN MTN SLOPES AIDED BY SE UPSLOPE. MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE
RUNNING LOW SO I DON`T ANTICIPATE THERE BEING WIDESPREAD HYDRO
ISSUES. HOWEVER EXPECT GRADUAL RIVER RISES TODAY...WITH PERHAPS
MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN THUNDER AND ENHANCED
RAINFALL RATES. FORECAST QPF THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY IS A HEAVY MODEL
BLEND - WHICH BRINGS A GENERAL 1" BUT AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5" ARE SHOWN
FROM THE EASTERN `DACKS...NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND HIGHER
PEAKS OF THE GREENS.

STG/SVR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL: THIS IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON THERE
BEING ENOUGH BREAKS IN OVERCAST - WHICH MAY HAPPEN IN EASTERN VT AS
DRYSLOT MOVES ACROSS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PROGGED CAPES ARE AS HIGH
AS 1000-1200 J/KG IN NAM/WRF ACROSS EASTERN VT...LESS SO IN THE GFS.
SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE HIGHER FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL HAVE AROUND
30-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THROW IN GOOD SYNOPTIC ASCENT WHICH
COULD OVERCOME LOW INSTABILITY AND I COULD SEE THERE BEING A FEW
STRONG STORMS ACROSS EASTERN VT. SPC HAS THIS AREA OUTLINED IN A
SEE TEXT AREA TODAY. THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
INSTABILITY...OPTED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS.

TEMPS TODAY ARE TRICKY. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY A FEW DEGS ACROSS
NORTHERN NY AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNDER OVERCAST AND RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS IN THIS AREA GENERALLY IN THE 60S/AROUND 70
TO THE MID 70S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS
IN CLOUDS EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...TRENDING MVFR LOCALLY IFR INITIALLY IN BR/FG
THEN IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
10-12Z AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST
ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN
ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE.

PATCHY FG/BR GIVE WAY TO RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING 10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES.
THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM KSLK EASTWARD AND HAVE INDICATED WITH VCTS.

LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS
TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK. AT RUT/MPV
LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN TAPERING OFF. LOCAL
IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON












000
FXUS61 KALY 281042
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
642 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TODAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT
ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT
DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT AS A POTENT
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD AND
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

THE SURFACE LOW IS WELL FORECAST TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. IT WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH. THE STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR TODAY AS THE VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO AND OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT. THE LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
WE WILL ACHIEVE DUE TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER THE
AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. IN ADDITION
VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND STRENGTHENING OF WINDS WITH
HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS
TO ACQUIRE ROTATION OR ORGANIZE INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "SEE TEXT" DUE TO THIS
CONDITIONAL THREAT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING OF GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND ARE DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN FLYING CONDITIONS...ESP AT KPSF.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND
IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTERED OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 281042
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
642 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TODAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT
ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT
DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT AS A POTENT
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD AND
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

THE SURFACE LOW IS WELL FORECAST TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. IT WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH. THE STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR TODAY AS THE VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO AND OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT. THE LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
WE WILL ACHIEVE DUE TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER THE
AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. IN ADDITION
VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND STRENGTHENING OF WINDS WITH
HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS
TO ACQUIRE ROTATION OR ORGANIZE INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER "SEE TEXT" DUE TO THIS
CONDITIONAL THREAT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING OF GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND ARE DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A REDUCTION IN FLYING CONDITIONS...ESP AT KPSF.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND
IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTERED OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







000
FXUS61 KALY 280843
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
443 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TODAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT
ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT
DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT AS A
POTENT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD.

THE SURFACE LOW IS WELL FORECAST TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. IT WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH. THE STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING AS THE
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO AND OVER THE REGION. THE LIMITING
FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE WILL ACHIEVE DUE
TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER THE AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. IN ADDITION VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND STRENGTHENING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL
RISK FOR THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO ACQUIRE ROTATION OR ORGANIZE INTO
LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER
"SEE TEXT" DUE TO THIS CONDITIONAL THREAT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA.

SOME IFR FOG IS ONGOING AT KPSF/KGFL...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT
KALB/KPOU THANKS TO BUILDING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE.
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM LAKE ERIE...SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA TOWARDS
SUNRISE...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
CAN BE BRIEFLY HEAVY...AND A TEMPO FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN RAIN
SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAF FOR ALL TERMINALS.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW PRESSURE AND IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
INCLUDED IN ALL TAFS AS A PROB30 GROUP.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS FOR MON EVENING INTO MON NIGHT. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
VFR FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 280843
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
443 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TODAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT
ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT
DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT AS A
POTENT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD.

THE SURFACE LOW IS WELL FORECAST TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. IT WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH. THE STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING AS THE
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO AND OVER THE REGION. THE LIMITING
FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE WILL ACHIEVE DUE
TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER THE AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. IN ADDITION VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND STRENGTHENING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL
RISK FOR THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO ACQUIRE ROTATION OR ORGANIZE INTO
LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER
"SEE TEXT" DUE TO THIS CONDITIONAL THREAT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA.

SOME IFR FOG IS ONGOING AT KPSF/KGFL...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT
KALB/KPOU THANKS TO BUILDING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE.
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM LAKE ERIE...SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA TOWARDS
SUNRISE...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
CAN BE BRIEFLY HEAVY...AND A TEMPO FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN RAIN
SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAF FOR ALL TERMINALS.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW PRESSURE AND IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
INCLUDED IN ALL TAFS AS A PROB30 GROUP.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS FOR MON EVENING INTO MON NIGHT. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
VFR FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 280843
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
443 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TODAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT
ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT
DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT AS A
POTENT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD.

THE SURFACE LOW IS WELL FORECAST TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. IT WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH. THE STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING AS THE
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO AND OVER THE REGION. THE LIMITING
FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE WILL ACHIEVE DUE
TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER THE AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. IN ADDITION VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND STRENGTHENING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL
RISK FOR THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO ACQUIRE ROTATION OR ORGANIZE INTO
LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER
"SEE TEXT" DUE TO THIS CONDITIONAL THREAT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA.

SOME IFR FOG IS ONGOING AT KPSF/KGFL...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT
KALB/KPOU THANKS TO BUILDING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE.
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM LAKE ERIE...SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA TOWARDS
SUNRISE...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
CAN BE BRIEFLY HEAVY...AND A TEMPO FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN RAIN
SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAF FOR ALL TERMINALS.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW PRESSURE AND IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
INCLUDED IN ALL TAFS AS A PROB30 GROUP.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS FOR MON EVENING INTO MON NIGHT. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
VFR FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KALY 280843
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
443 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TODAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT
ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT
DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSEASONABLE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT AS A
POTENT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD.

THE SURFACE LOW IS WELL FORECAST TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. IT WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH. THE STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING AS THE
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO AND OVER THE REGION. THE LIMITING
FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE WILL ACHIEVE DUE
TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER THE AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. IN ADDITION VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND STRENGTHENING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL
RISK FOR THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO ACQUIRE ROTATION OR ORGANIZE INTO
LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER
"SEE TEXT" DUE TO THIS CONDITIONAL THREAT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END. WILL HAVE LINGERING THREAT OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE
SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON`S BAY CANADA. .

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COOLER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. INTO MID WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING ABOUT THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO TIME. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE REGION SHOULD BE BETWEEN SHORT WAVES TUESDAY SO EXPECTING A DRY
DAY. HAVE POPS IN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...AND MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS...WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN US. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.  TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA.

SOME IFR FOG IS ONGOING AT KPSF/KGFL...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT
KALB/KPOU THANKS TO BUILDING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE.
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM LAKE ERIE...SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA TOWARDS
SUNRISE...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
CAN BE BRIEFLY HEAVY...AND A TEMPO FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN RAIN
SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAF FOR ALL TERMINALS.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW PRESSURE AND IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
INCLUDED IN ALL TAFS AS A PROB30 GROUP.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS FOR MON EVENING INTO MON NIGHT. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
VFR FOR ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING COOLER
AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS A
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW YORK STATE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA








000
FXUS61 KBTV 280822
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
422 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...ACTIVE MONDAY WEATHER-WISE FOR THE NORTH
COUNTRY...FEATURING A DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM PRODUCING SEVERAL
ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS IN EASTERN VT. FRANKLY...THE UPPER- LEVEL PATTERN
AND RELATED DEGREE OF LARGE- SCALE FORCING RESEMBLES SPRING MORE
THAN LATE JULY.

BIG PICTURE...SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR KROC ALONG A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WHICH EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY PLATEAU AND NORTHWARD
TO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. ALOFT...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OHIO WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG 500 MB
JETSTREAK AT TROUGH BASE (EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY BY A PRONOUNCED
DRYSLOT PUNCHING INTO WESTERN PA). THERE`S NOT A VERY CLEAR
CONSENSUS IN 00Z GUIDANCE WHERE THE SFC CYCLONE TRACKS
TODAY...WITH THE NAM AND SREF MEAN BEING FURTHER TO THE WEST (AN
ADIRONDACKS TO MONTREAL TRACK) AND GLOBAL MODELS TAKING MORE OF A
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN NH TRACK. I`VE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL: ONGOING BAND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO TRACK
NORTHWARD...ALIGNED ROUGHLY ON 850-500 MB DEFORMATION AXIS. THAT
BAND OF RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH TODAY WITH RAIN FALLING HEAVY AT TIMES.
THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN
`DACKS AND EAST-FACING GREEN MTN SLOPES AIDED BY SE UPSLOPE. MAIN
STEM RIVERS ARE RUNNING LOW SO I DON`T ANTICIPATE THERE BEING
WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES. HOWEVER EXPECT GRADUAL RIVER RISES
TODAY...WITH PERHAPS MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN THUNDER
AND ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES. FORECAST QPF THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY IS A
HEAVY MODEL BLEND - WHICH BRINGS A GENERAL 1" BUT AMOUNTS UP TO
1.5" ARE SHOWN FROM THE EASTERN `DACKS...NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND HIGHER PEAKS OF THE GREENS.

STG/SVR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL: THIS IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON THERE
BEING ENOUGH BREAKS IN OVERCAST - WHICH MAY HAPPEN IN EASTERN VT AS
DRYSLOT MOVES ACROSS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PROGGED CAPES ARE AS HIGH
AS 1000-1200 J/KG IN NAM/WRF ACROSS EASTERN VT...LESS SO IN THE GFS.
SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE HIGHER FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL HAVE AROUND
30-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THROW IN GOOD SYNOPTIC ASCENT WHICH
COULD OVERCOME LOW INSTABILITY AND I COULD SEE THERE BEING A FEW
STRONG STORMS ACROSS EASTERN VT. SPC HAS THIS AREA OUTLINED IN A
SEE TEXT AREA TODAY. THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
INSTABILITY...OPTED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS.

TEMPS TODAY ARE TRICKY. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY A FEW DEGS ACROSS
NORTHERN NY AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNDER OVERCAST AND RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS IN THIS AREA GENERALLY IN THE 60S/AROUND 70
TO THE MID 70S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS
IN CLOUDS EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...TRENDING MVFR LOCALLY IFR INITIALLY IN BR/FG
THEN IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
10-12Z AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST
ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN
ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE.

PATCHY FG/BR GIVE WAY TO RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING 10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES.
THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM KSLK EASTWARD AND HAVE INDICATED WITH VCTS.

LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS
TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK. AT RUT/MPV
LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN TAPERING OFF. LOCAL
IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON











000
FXUS61 KBTV 280822
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
422 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...ACTIVE MONDAY WEATHER-WISE FOR THE NORTH
COUNTRY...FEATURING A DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM PRODUCING SEVERAL
ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS IN EASTERN VT. FRANKLY...THE UPPER- LEVEL PATTERN
AND RELATED DEGREE OF LARGE- SCALE FORCING RESEMBLES SPRING MORE
THAN LATE JULY.

BIG PICTURE...SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR KROC ALONG A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WHICH EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY PLATEAU AND NORTHWARD
TO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. ALOFT...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OHIO WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG 500 MB
JETSTREAK AT TROUGH BASE (EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY BY A PRONOUNCED
DRYSLOT PUNCHING INTO WESTERN PA). THERE`S NOT A VERY CLEAR
CONSENSUS IN 00Z GUIDANCE WHERE THE SFC CYCLONE TRACKS
TODAY...WITH THE NAM AND SREF MEAN BEING FURTHER TO THE WEST (AN
ADIRONDACKS TO MONTREAL TRACK) AND GLOBAL MODELS TAKING MORE OF A
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN NH TRACK. I`VE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL: ONGOING BAND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO TRACK
NORTHWARD...ALIGNED ROUGHLY ON 850-500 MB DEFORMATION AXIS. THAT
BAND OF RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH TODAY WITH RAIN FALLING HEAVY AT TIMES.
THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN
`DACKS AND EAST-FACING GREEN MTN SLOPES AIDED BY SE UPSLOPE. MAIN
STEM RIVERS ARE RUNNING LOW SO I DON`T ANTICIPATE THERE BEING
WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES. HOWEVER EXPECT GRADUAL RIVER RISES
TODAY...WITH PERHAPS MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN THUNDER
AND ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES. FORECAST QPF THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY IS A
HEAVY MODEL BLEND - WHICH BRINGS A GENERAL 1" BUT AMOUNTS UP TO
1.5" ARE SHOWN FROM THE EASTERN `DACKS...NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND HIGHER PEAKS OF THE GREENS.

STG/SVR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL: THIS IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON THERE
BEING ENOUGH BREAKS IN OVERCAST - WHICH MAY HAPPEN IN EASTERN VT AS
DRYSLOT MOVES ACROSS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PROGGED CAPES ARE AS HIGH
AS 1000-1200 J/KG IN NAM/WRF ACROSS EASTERN VT...LESS SO IN THE GFS.
SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE HIGHER FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL HAVE AROUND
30-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THROW IN GOOD SYNOPTIC ASCENT WHICH
COULD OVERCOME LOW INSTABILITY AND I COULD SEE THERE BEING A FEW
STRONG STORMS ACROSS EASTERN VT. SPC HAS THIS AREA OUTLINED IN A
SEE TEXT AREA TODAY. THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
INSTABILITY...OPTED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS.

TEMPS TODAY ARE TRICKY. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY A FEW DEGS ACROSS
NORTHERN NY AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNDER OVERCAST AND RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS IN THIS AREA GENERALLY IN THE 60S/AROUND 70
TO THE MID 70S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS
IN CLOUDS EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...TRENDING MVFR LOCALLY IFR INITIALLY IN BR/FG
THEN IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
10-12Z AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST
ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN
ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE.

PATCHY FG/BR GIVE WAY TO RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING 10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES.
THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM KSLK EASTWARD AND HAVE INDICATED WITH VCTS.

LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS
TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK. AT RUT/MPV
LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN TAPERING OFF. LOCAL
IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON












000
FXUS61 KBTV 280815
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
415 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-SUMMER LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. THE
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN GRADUAL MAIN STEM RIVER
RISES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS INTO QUEBEC LATER
TONIGHT WITH LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK FEATURES ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNDER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE MONDAY WEATHER-WISE FOR THE NORTH
COUNTRY...FEATURING A DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM PRODUCING SEVERAL
ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS IN EASTERN VT. FRANKLY...THE UPPER- LEVEL
PATTERN AND RELATED DEGREE OF LARGE- SCALE FORCING RESEMBLES
SPRING MORE THAN LATE JULY.

BIG PICTURE...SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR KROC ALONG A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WHICH EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY PLATEAU AND NORTHWARD
TO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. ALOFT...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OHIO WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG 500 MB
JETSTREAK AT TROUGH BASE (EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY BY A PRONOUNCED
DRYSLOT PUNCHING INTO WESTERN PA). THERE`S NOT A VERY CLEAR
CONSENSUS IN 00Z GUIDANCE WHERE THE SFC CYCLONE TRACKS
TODAY...WITH THE NAM AND SREF MEAN BEING FURTHER TO THE WEST (AN
ADIRONDACKS TO MONTREAL TRACK) AND GLOBAL MODELS TAKING MORE OF A
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN NH TRACK. I`VE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL: ONGOING BAND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO TRACK
NORTHWARD...ALIGNED ROUGHLY ON 850-500 MB DEFORMATION AXIS. THAT
BAND OF RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH TODAY WITH RAIN FALLING HEAVY AT TIMES.
THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN
`DACKS AND EAST-FACING GREEN MTN SLOPES AIDED BY SE UPSLOPE. MAIN
STEM RIVERS ARE RUNNING LOW SO I DON`T ANTICIPATE THERE BEING
WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES. HOWEVER EXPECT GRADUAL RIVER RISES
TODAY...WITH PERHAPS MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN THUNDER
AND ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES. FORECAST QPF THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY IS A
HEAVY MODEL BLEND - WHICH BRINGS A GENERAL 1" BUT AMOUNTS UP TO
1.5" ARE SHOWN FROM THE EASTERN `DACKS...NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AND HIGHER PEAKS OF THE GREENS.

STG/SVR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL: THIS IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON THERE
BEING ENOUGH BREAKS IN OVERCAST - WHICH MAY HAPPEN IN EASTERN VT AS
DRYSLOT MOVES ACROSS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PROGGED CAPES ARE AS HIGH
AS 1000-1200 J/KG IN NAM/WRF ACROSS EASTERN VT...LESS SO IN THE GFS.
SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE HIGHER FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL HAVE AROUND
30-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THROW IN GOOD SYNOPTIC ASCENT WHICH
COULD OVERCOME LOW INSTABILITY AND I COULD SEE THERE BEING A FEW
STRONG STORMS ACROSS EASTERN VT. SPC HAS THIS AREA OUTLINED IN A
SEE TEXT AREA TODAY. THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
INSTABILITY...OPTED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS.

TEMPS TODAY ARE TRICKY. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY A FEW DEGS ACROSS
NORTHERN NY AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNDER OVERCAST AND RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS IN THIS AREA GENERALLY IN THE 60S/AROUND 70
TO THE MID 70S IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAKS
IN CLOUDS EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT: PROGGED SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA.
MODERATE RAIN STILL EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT POPS TO
GENERALLY DECREASE. A GOOD SIGNAL FOR NW UPSLOPE/BLOCKED FLOW
SHOWERS (E.G. SUB-CRITICAL FROUDE NUMBERS PER 00Z NAM) KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO +7 TO
+9C TONIGHT AND PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD BRING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO
THE 50S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: BOTH DAYS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WX. LARGE-SCALE LIFT DIMINISHES...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD AIR ALOFT PRODUCING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS -
GENERALLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS INDICATED...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGHING. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SUNDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LATE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AN
AVERAGE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS
IN PLACE THURSDAY THEN RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.  A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EAST COAST WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE
SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...LEAVES US IN A
WEAK BUT MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFT/EVE AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY 75 TO 80 WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 10-12C.  850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES 12-14C FRIDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH
PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO
NEAR NORMAL - UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TRENDING MILDER OVER THE WEEKEND.  LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AS WE MOVE TOWARD OUR OUR PEAK FOG SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...TRENDING MVFR LOCALLY IFR INITIALLY IN BR/FG
THEN IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
10-12Z AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST
ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN
ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE.

PATCHY FG/BR GIVE WAY TO RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING 10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES.
THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM KSLK EASTWARD AND HAVE INDICATED WITH VCTS.

LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS
TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK. AT RUT/MPV
LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN TAPERING OFF. LOCAL
IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON










000
FXUS61 KBTV 280614
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
214 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK WILL TRACK INTO
VERMONT ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL. A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN VERMONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO START THE WORK WEEK...WITH SOME
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 113 AM EDT SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND FROM
TODAY`S RAINFALL...I`VE ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
I`VE ALSO ADJUSTED POPS/WX AFTER MIDNIGHT TO BETTER SHOW TIMING OF
AREA OF MODERATE RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS NOW IMPACTING SOUTH-
CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE. HI-RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL
REFLECTIVITY PROGS AND SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION PUTS THE LEADING EDGE
OF THIS AREA OF MODERATE RAIN FROM THE SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY - ADIRONDACKS - SOUTHERN VT AREA AROUND 08-09Z. SHOWN HIGH
POPS (LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL) AND CONTINUING TO TAPER UPWARD
THROUGH 12Z. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BUT THUNDER`S ALREADY ONGOING
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK...IN ZONE OF MID-/UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
AND IN THE POLEWARD EXIT REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET STREAK
APPROACHING WESTERN PA. THAT SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL OFFSET THE
SCANT INSTABILITY AND KEEP THUNDER GOING AS BAND OF MODERATE RAIN
SPREADS NORTH. SO I`VE KEPT CHANCE THUNDER TIED TO THE
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS.

TEMPS LOOK REASONABLY GOOD WITH ONLY ADJUSTMENT HERE TO MATCH
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 1001 PM EDT SUNDAY FOLLOWS...

AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO DECREASE NOTICEABLY
TONIGHT. SHOULD ONLY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE LARGE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTHWEST. POTENT STORM SYSTEM COMING OUT OF
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS WELL AS IN PENNSYLVANIA...WITH THE FLOW
GRADUALLY BACKING AND ALLOWING ALL OF IT TO MOVE UP INTO OUR AREA
TOWARD MORNING. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND ONLY
TWEAKED GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
THE INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SUNDAY...POTENT SYSTEM WL IMPACT OUR CWA ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. IN ADDITION...STILL WATCHING FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG STORMS ACRS OUR EASTERN/SOUTHERN CWA ON MONDAY
AFTN...AS PART OF THIS AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL GENERAL BE BTWN 1 AND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY WITH
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FROM THE DACKS TO CPV TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT
MTNS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES...BUT COULD SEE SOME
MINOR POOR DRAINAGE URBAN FLOODING IN THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES ON
MONDAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT ACRS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...QUICKLY MOVING SE TWD THE OHIO VALLEY ATTM...WITH SOME
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALREADY NOTED UNDER THE 5H CIRCULATION. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND UPSTREAM ACTION TODAY...MAKES FOR A TRICKY
SFC LOW TRACK HEADING INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF A STRONG NW TO SE THERMAL BOUNDARY. AS VIGOROUS 5H VORT ROUNDS
MID/UPPER LVL TROF...SYSTEM WL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY 18Z
WEDS...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING FROM NEAR KBGM AT 12Z MONDAY TO
NORTHERN VT BY 00Z TUES. THIS TRACK PLACES OUR WESTERN CWA ON THE
COOL SIDE...WHILE PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON MONDAY AFTN. THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MID WAA LIFT/MOISTURE WL DEVELOP ACRS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AROUND 12Z MONDAY AND LIFT INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT 14Z...BEFORE BEING NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 16Z
MONDAY. THIS LIFT/MOISTURE WL RESULT IN A 2 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW OF
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. HOWEVER...AS SOME BREAKS
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AFTN...SFC INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 30 KNOTS. THINKING SCATTERED STORMS WL DEVELOP ACRS OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA...WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE....ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ON MONDAY WL BE
DRIVEN BY THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND NOT SO MUCH THE INSTABILITY. BOTH
THE GFS/NAM 850 TO 500MB RH PROGS SHOW A NICE WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
DEVELOPING ACRS OUR EASTERN CWA AT 18Z MONDAY...WHILE A BAND OF DEEP
RH ASSOCIATED WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM
THERMAL DRIVEN MID LVL TROWAL FEATURE WL HELP TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
MODERATE RAINFALL ACRS THE DACKS INTO THE CPV AND MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE
CLOSED 85H AND 7H CIRCULATIONS...AND SFC LOW...EXPECT BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION PRECIP TO LINGER OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
ON TUES MORNING. THINKING TOTAL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.25 AN 0.75"
SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 0.75 TO 1.75" EASTERN DACKS/CPV AND NORTHERN
VT....WITH AMOUNTS BTWN 0.50 AND 1.0" ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2.0" POSSIBLE DUE TO
CONVECTION AND TRRN. EXPECTING SOME SHARP RISES ON SMALLER
STREAMS/RIVERS...BUT GIVEN RECENT DRY SPELL NO MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES
ANTICIPATED ATTM. VERY INTERESTING TEMP PROFILE ON MONDAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE CPV/SLV AND LOW LEVEL CAA/CLOUDS...TEMPS WL
STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 50S DACKS TO L/M60S CPV/SLV AND MID 70S LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. THE MTNS OF VT WL HOLD IN THE U50S TO LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE NEK VALLEYS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL CLOSED CIRCULATION LIFTS INTO
EASTERN CANADA WITH CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACRS OUR CWA. BEST 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 12Z TUES...BUT GIVEN AMOUNT OF
ENERGY IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND SOME SFC HEATING ON TUES AFTN...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY
WL DECREASE BY TUES EVENING...WITH CHILLY NORTHWEST WINDS. TUES/TUES
NIGHT WL FEEL A BIT LIKE FALL WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
U50S/L60S MTNS TO NEAR 70F WARMER VALLEYS...ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS ONLY BTWN 6-8C. WINDS/CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL RH
WL KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT ON TUES NIGHT...THINKING
MAINLY 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH TROUGH
WEAKENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS.

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE TIME TO BE DRY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH
DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRONGEST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LARGELY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
TO BE AROUND 10-11C WED/THU THEN MODERATE TO 12-13C BY THE WEEKEND.
WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WED/THU AND AROUND 80 FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT MINS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...TRENDING MVFR LOCALLY IFR INITIALLY IN BR/FG
THEN IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
10-12Z AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST
ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN
ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE.

PATCHY FG/BR GIVE WAY TO RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING 10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES.
THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM KSLK EASTWARD AND HAVE INDICATED WITH VCTS.

LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS
TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK. AT RUT/MPV
LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN TAPERING OFF. LOCAL
IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...SISSON








000
FXUS61 KBTV 280614
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
214 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK WILL TRACK INTO
VERMONT ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL. A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN VERMONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO START THE WORK WEEK...WITH SOME
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 113 AM EDT SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND FROM
TODAY`S RAINFALL...I`VE ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
I`VE ALSO ADJUSTED POPS/WX AFTER MIDNIGHT TO BETTER SHOW TIMING OF
AREA OF MODERATE RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS NOW IMPACTING SOUTH-
CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE. HI-RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL
REFLECTIVITY PROGS AND SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION PUTS THE LEADING EDGE
OF THIS AREA OF MODERATE RAIN FROM THE SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY - ADIRONDACKS - SOUTHERN VT AREA AROUND 08-09Z. SHOWN HIGH
POPS (LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL) AND CONTINUING TO TAPER UPWARD
THROUGH 12Z. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BUT THUNDER`S ALREADY ONGOING
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK...IN ZONE OF MID-/UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
AND IN THE POLEWARD EXIT REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET STREAK
APPROACHING WESTERN PA. THAT SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL OFFSET THE
SCANT INSTABILITY AND KEEP THUNDER GOING AS BAND OF MODERATE RAIN
SPREADS NORTH. SO I`VE KEPT CHANCE THUNDER TIED TO THE
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS.

TEMPS LOOK REASONABLY GOOD WITH ONLY ADJUSTMENT HERE TO MATCH
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 1001 PM EDT SUNDAY FOLLOWS...

AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO DECREASE NOTICEABLY
TONIGHT. SHOULD ONLY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE LARGE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTHWEST. POTENT STORM SYSTEM COMING OUT OF
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS WELL AS IN PENNSYLVANIA...WITH THE FLOW
GRADUALLY BACKING AND ALLOWING ALL OF IT TO MOVE UP INTO OUR AREA
TOWARD MORNING. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND ONLY
TWEAKED GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
THE INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SUNDAY...POTENT SYSTEM WL IMPACT OUR CWA ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. IN ADDITION...STILL WATCHING FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG STORMS ACRS OUR EASTERN/SOUTHERN CWA ON MONDAY
AFTN...AS PART OF THIS AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL GENERAL BE BTWN 1 AND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY WITH
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FROM THE DACKS TO CPV TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT
MTNS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES...BUT COULD SEE SOME
MINOR POOR DRAINAGE URBAN FLOODING IN THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES ON
MONDAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT ACRS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...QUICKLY MOVING SE TWD THE OHIO VALLEY ATTM...WITH SOME
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALREADY NOTED UNDER THE 5H CIRCULATION. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND UPSTREAM ACTION TODAY...MAKES FOR A TRICKY
SFC LOW TRACK HEADING INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF A STRONG NW TO SE THERMAL BOUNDARY. AS VIGOROUS 5H VORT ROUNDS
MID/UPPER LVL TROF...SYSTEM WL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY 18Z
WEDS...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING FROM NEAR KBGM AT 12Z MONDAY TO
NORTHERN VT BY 00Z TUES. THIS TRACK PLACES OUR WESTERN CWA ON THE
COOL SIDE...WHILE PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON MONDAY AFTN. THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MID WAA LIFT/MOISTURE WL DEVELOP ACRS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AROUND 12Z MONDAY AND LIFT INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT 14Z...BEFORE BEING NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 16Z
MONDAY. THIS LIFT/MOISTURE WL RESULT IN A 2 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW OF
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. HOWEVER...AS SOME BREAKS
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AFTN...SFC INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 30 KNOTS. THINKING SCATTERED STORMS WL DEVELOP ACRS OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA...WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE....ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ON MONDAY WL BE
DRIVEN BY THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND NOT SO MUCH THE INSTABILITY. BOTH
THE GFS/NAM 850 TO 500MB RH PROGS SHOW A NICE WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
DEVELOPING ACRS OUR EASTERN CWA AT 18Z MONDAY...WHILE A BAND OF DEEP
RH ASSOCIATED WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM
THERMAL DRIVEN MID LVL TROWAL FEATURE WL HELP TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
MODERATE RAINFALL ACRS THE DACKS INTO THE CPV AND MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE
CLOSED 85H AND 7H CIRCULATIONS...AND SFC LOW...EXPECT BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION PRECIP TO LINGER OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
ON TUES MORNING. THINKING TOTAL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.25 AN 0.75"
SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 0.75 TO 1.75" EASTERN DACKS/CPV AND NORTHERN
VT....WITH AMOUNTS BTWN 0.50 AND 1.0" ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2.0" POSSIBLE DUE TO
CONVECTION AND TRRN. EXPECTING SOME SHARP RISES ON SMALLER
STREAMS/RIVERS...BUT GIVEN RECENT DRY SPELL NO MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES
ANTICIPATED ATTM. VERY INTERESTING TEMP PROFILE ON MONDAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE CPV/SLV AND LOW LEVEL CAA/CLOUDS...TEMPS WL
STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 50S DACKS TO L/M60S CPV/SLV AND MID 70S LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. THE MTNS OF VT WL HOLD IN THE U50S TO LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE NEK VALLEYS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL CLOSED CIRCULATION LIFTS INTO
EASTERN CANADA WITH CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACRS OUR CWA. BEST 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 12Z TUES...BUT GIVEN AMOUNT OF
ENERGY IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND SOME SFC HEATING ON TUES AFTN...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY
WL DECREASE BY TUES EVENING...WITH CHILLY NORTHWEST WINDS. TUES/TUES
NIGHT WL FEEL A BIT LIKE FALL WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
U50S/L60S MTNS TO NEAR 70F WARMER VALLEYS...ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS ONLY BTWN 6-8C. WINDS/CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL RH
WL KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT ON TUES NIGHT...THINKING
MAINLY 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH TROUGH
WEAKENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS.

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE TIME TO BE DRY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH
DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRONGEST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LARGELY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
TO BE AROUND 10-11C WED/THU THEN MODERATE TO 12-13C BY THE WEEKEND.
WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WED/THU AND AROUND 80 FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT MINS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...TRENDING MVFR LOCALLY IFR INITIALLY IN BR/FG
THEN IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
10-12Z AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST
ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN
ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE.

PATCHY FG/BR GIVE WAY TO RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING 10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES.
THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM KSLK EASTWARD AND HAVE INDICATED WITH VCTS.

LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS
TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK. AT RUT/MPV
LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN TAPERING OFF. LOCAL
IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...SISSON








000
FXUS61 KBTV 280614
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
214 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK WILL TRACK INTO
VERMONT ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL. A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN VERMONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO START THE WORK WEEK...WITH SOME
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 113 AM EDT SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND FROM
TODAY`S RAINFALL...I`VE ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
I`VE ALSO ADJUSTED POPS/WX AFTER MIDNIGHT TO BETTER SHOW TIMING OF
AREA OF MODERATE RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS NOW IMPACTING SOUTH-
CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE. HI-RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL
REFLECTIVITY PROGS AND SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION PUTS THE LEADING EDGE
OF THIS AREA OF MODERATE RAIN FROM THE SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY - ADIRONDACKS - SOUTHERN VT AREA AROUND 08-09Z. SHOWN HIGH
POPS (LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL) AND CONTINUING TO TAPER UPWARD
THROUGH 12Z. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BUT THUNDER`S ALREADY ONGOING
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK...IN ZONE OF MID-/UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
AND IN THE POLEWARD EXIT REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET STREAK
APPROACHING WESTERN PA. THAT SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL OFFSET THE
SCANT INSTABILITY AND KEEP THUNDER GOING AS BAND OF MODERATE RAIN
SPREADS NORTH. SO I`VE KEPT CHANCE THUNDER TIED TO THE
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS.

TEMPS LOOK REASONABLY GOOD WITH ONLY ADJUSTMENT HERE TO MATCH
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 1001 PM EDT SUNDAY FOLLOWS...

AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO DECREASE NOTICEABLY
TONIGHT. SHOULD ONLY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE LARGE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTHWEST. POTENT STORM SYSTEM COMING OUT OF
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS WELL AS IN PENNSYLVANIA...WITH THE FLOW
GRADUALLY BACKING AND ALLOWING ALL OF IT TO MOVE UP INTO OUR AREA
TOWARD MORNING. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND ONLY
TWEAKED GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
THE INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SUNDAY...POTENT SYSTEM WL IMPACT OUR CWA ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. IN ADDITION...STILL WATCHING FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG STORMS ACRS OUR EASTERN/SOUTHERN CWA ON MONDAY
AFTN...AS PART OF THIS AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL GENERAL BE BTWN 1 AND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY WITH
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FROM THE DACKS TO CPV TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT
MTNS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES...BUT COULD SEE SOME
MINOR POOR DRAINAGE URBAN FLOODING IN THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES ON
MONDAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT ACRS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...QUICKLY MOVING SE TWD THE OHIO VALLEY ATTM...WITH SOME
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALREADY NOTED UNDER THE 5H CIRCULATION. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND UPSTREAM ACTION TODAY...MAKES FOR A TRICKY
SFC LOW TRACK HEADING INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF A STRONG NW TO SE THERMAL BOUNDARY. AS VIGOROUS 5H VORT ROUNDS
MID/UPPER LVL TROF...SYSTEM WL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY 18Z
WEDS...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING FROM NEAR KBGM AT 12Z MONDAY TO
NORTHERN VT BY 00Z TUES. THIS TRACK PLACES OUR WESTERN CWA ON THE
COOL SIDE...WHILE PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON MONDAY AFTN. THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MID WAA LIFT/MOISTURE WL DEVELOP ACRS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AROUND 12Z MONDAY AND LIFT INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT 14Z...BEFORE BEING NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 16Z
MONDAY. THIS LIFT/MOISTURE WL RESULT IN A 2 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW OF
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. HOWEVER...AS SOME BREAKS
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AFTN...SFC INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 30 KNOTS. THINKING SCATTERED STORMS WL DEVELOP ACRS OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA...WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE....ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ON MONDAY WL BE
DRIVEN BY THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND NOT SO MUCH THE INSTABILITY. BOTH
THE GFS/NAM 850 TO 500MB RH PROGS SHOW A NICE WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
DEVELOPING ACRS OUR EASTERN CWA AT 18Z MONDAY...WHILE A BAND OF DEEP
RH ASSOCIATED WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM
THERMAL DRIVEN MID LVL TROWAL FEATURE WL HELP TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
MODERATE RAINFALL ACRS THE DACKS INTO THE CPV AND MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE
CLOSED 85H AND 7H CIRCULATIONS...AND SFC LOW...EXPECT BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION PRECIP TO LINGER OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
ON TUES MORNING. THINKING TOTAL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.25 AN 0.75"
SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 0.75 TO 1.75" EASTERN DACKS/CPV AND NORTHERN
VT....WITH AMOUNTS BTWN 0.50 AND 1.0" ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2.0" POSSIBLE DUE TO
CONVECTION AND TRRN. EXPECTING SOME SHARP RISES ON SMALLER
STREAMS/RIVERS...BUT GIVEN RECENT DRY SPELL NO MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES
ANTICIPATED ATTM. VERY INTERESTING TEMP PROFILE ON MONDAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE CPV/SLV AND LOW LEVEL CAA/CLOUDS...TEMPS WL
STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 50S DACKS TO L/M60S CPV/SLV AND MID 70S LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. THE MTNS OF VT WL HOLD IN THE U50S TO LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE NEK VALLEYS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL CLOSED CIRCULATION LIFTS INTO
EASTERN CANADA WITH CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACRS OUR CWA. BEST 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 12Z TUES...BUT GIVEN AMOUNT OF
ENERGY IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND SOME SFC HEATING ON TUES AFTN...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY
WL DECREASE BY TUES EVENING...WITH CHILLY NORTHWEST WINDS. TUES/TUES
NIGHT WL FEEL A BIT LIKE FALL WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
U50S/L60S MTNS TO NEAR 70F WARMER VALLEYS...ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS ONLY BTWN 6-8C. WINDS/CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL RH
WL KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT ON TUES NIGHT...THINKING
MAINLY 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH TROUGH
WEAKENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS.

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE TIME TO BE DRY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH
DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRONGEST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LARGELY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
TO BE AROUND 10-11C WED/THU THEN MODERATE TO 12-13C BY THE WEEKEND.
WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WED/THU AND AROUND 80 FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT MINS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...TRENDING MVFR LOCALLY IFR INITIALLY IN BR/FG
THEN IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
10-12Z AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST
ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN
ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE.

PATCHY FG/BR GIVE WAY TO RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING 10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES.
THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM KSLK EASTWARD AND HAVE INDICATED WITH VCTS.

LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS
TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK. AT RUT/MPV
LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN TAPERING OFF. LOCAL
IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...SISSON








000
FXUS61 KBTV 280614
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
214 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK WILL TRACK INTO
VERMONT ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL. A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN VERMONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO START THE WORK WEEK...WITH SOME
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 113 AM EDT SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND FROM
TODAY`S RAINFALL...I`VE ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
I`VE ALSO ADJUSTED POPS/WX AFTER MIDNIGHT TO BETTER SHOW TIMING OF
AREA OF MODERATE RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS NOW IMPACTING SOUTH-
CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE. HI-RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL
REFLECTIVITY PROGS AND SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION PUTS THE LEADING EDGE
OF THIS AREA OF MODERATE RAIN FROM THE SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY - ADIRONDACKS - SOUTHERN VT AREA AROUND 08-09Z. SHOWN HIGH
POPS (LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL) AND CONTINUING TO TAPER UPWARD
THROUGH 12Z. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BUT THUNDER`S ALREADY ONGOING
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK...IN ZONE OF MID-/UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
AND IN THE POLEWARD EXIT REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET STREAK
APPROACHING WESTERN PA. THAT SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL OFFSET THE
SCANT INSTABILITY AND KEEP THUNDER GOING AS BAND OF MODERATE RAIN
SPREADS NORTH. SO I`VE KEPT CHANCE THUNDER TIED TO THE
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS.

TEMPS LOOK REASONABLY GOOD WITH ONLY ADJUSTMENT HERE TO MATCH
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 1001 PM EDT SUNDAY FOLLOWS...

AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO DECREASE NOTICEABLY
TONIGHT. SHOULD ONLY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE LARGE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTHWEST. POTENT STORM SYSTEM COMING OUT OF
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS WELL AS IN PENNSYLVANIA...WITH THE FLOW
GRADUALLY BACKING AND ALLOWING ALL OF IT TO MOVE UP INTO OUR AREA
TOWARD MORNING. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND ONLY
TWEAKED GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
THE INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SUNDAY...POTENT SYSTEM WL IMPACT OUR CWA ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. IN ADDITION...STILL WATCHING FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG STORMS ACRS OUR EASTERN/SOUTHERN CWA ON MONDAY
AFTN...AS PART OF THIS AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL GENERAL BE BTWN 1 AND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY WITH
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FROM THE DACKS TO CPV TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT
MTNS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES...BUT COULD SEE SOME
MINOR POOR DRAINAGE URBAN FLOODING IN THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES ON
MONDAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT ACRS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...QUICKLY MOVING SE TWD THE OHIO VALLEY ATTM...WITH SOME
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALREADY NOTED UNDER THE 5H CIRCULATION. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND UPSTREAM ACTION TODAY...MAKES FOR A TRICKY
SFC LOW TRACK HEADING INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF A STRONG NW TO SE THERMAL BOUNDARY. AS VIGOROUS 5H VORT ROUNDS
MID/UPPER LVL TROF...SYSTEM WL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY 18Z
WEDS...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING FROM NEAR KBGM AT 12Z MONDAY TO
NORTHERN VT BY 00Z TUES. THIS TRACK PLACES OUR WESTERN CWA ON THE
COOL SIDE...WHILE PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON MONDAY AFTN. THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MID WAA LIFT/MOISTURE WL DEVELOP ACRS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AROUND 12Z MONDAY AND LIFT INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT 14Z...BEFORE BEING NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 16Z
MONDAY. THIS LIFT/MOISTURE WL RESULT IN A 2 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW OF
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. HOWEVER...AS SOME BREAKS
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AFTN...SFC INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 30 KNOTS. THINKING SCATTERED STORMS WL DEVELOP ACRS OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA...WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE....ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ON MONDAY WL BE
DRIVEN BY THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND NOT SO MUCH THE INSTABILITY. BOTH
THE GFS/NAM 850 TO 500MB RH PROGS SHOW A NICE WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
DEVELOPING ACRS OUR EASTERN CWA AT 18Z MONDAY...WHILE A BAND OF DEEP
RH ASSOCIATED WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM
THERMAL DRIVEN MID LVL TROWAL FEATURE WL HELP TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
MODERATE RAINFALL ACRS THE DACKS INTO THE CPV AND MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE
CLOSED 85H AND 7H CIRCULATIONS...AND SFC LOW...EXPECT BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION PRECIP TO LINGER OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
ON TUES MORNING. THINKING TOTAL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.25 AN 0.75"
SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 0.75 TO 1.75" EASTERN DACKS/CPV AND NORTHERN
VT....WITH AMOUNTS BTWN 0.50 AND 1.0" ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2.0" POSSIBLE DUE TO
CONVECTION AND TRRN. EXPECTING SOME SHARP RISES ON SMALLER
STREAMS/RIVERS...BUT GIVEN RECENT DRY SPELL NO MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES
ANTICIPATED ATTM. VERY INTERESTING TEMP PROFILE ON MONDAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE CPV/SLV AND LOW LEVEL CAA/CLOUDS...TEMPS WL
STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 50S DACKS TO L/M60S CPV/SLV AND MID 70S LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. THE MTNS OF VT WL HOLD IN THE U50S TO LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE NEK VALLEYS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL CLOSED CIRCULATION LIFTS INTO
EASTERN CANADA WITH CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACRS OUR CWA. BEST 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 12Z TUES...BUT GIVEN AMOUNT OF
ENERGY IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND SOME SFC HEATING ON TUES AFTN...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY
WL DECREASE BY TUES EVENING...WITH CHILLY NORTHWEST WINDS. TUES/TUES
NIGHT WL FEEL A BIT LIKE FALL WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
U50S/L60S MTNS TO NEAR 70F WARMER VALLEYS...ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS ONLY BTWN 6-8C. WINDS/CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL RH
WL KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT ON TUES NIGHT...THINKING
MAINLY 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH TROUGH
WEAKENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS.

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE TIME TO BE DRY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH
DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRONGEST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LARGELY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
TO BE AROUND 10-11C WED/THU THEN MODERATE TO 12-13C BY THE WEEKEND.
WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WED/THU AND AROUND 80 FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT MINS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...TRENDING MVFR LOCALLY IFR INITIALLY IN BR/FG
THEN IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
10-12Z AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS NY THEN NORTHEAST
ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO WESTERN
ME/SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 06Z TUE.

PATCHY FG/BR GIVE WAY TO RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER BEGINNING 10-12Z FROM SW TO NE. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES.
THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM KSLK EASTWARD AND HAVE INDICATED WITH VCTS.

LIGHT WINDS EARLY TODAY GRADUALLY BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 15 KTS
TODAY AT BTV/PBG. WINDS NE BECOMING N AT MSS/SLK. AT RUT/MPV
LIGHT E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATER TODAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN TAPERING OFF. LOCAL
IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...SISSON








000
FXUS61 KALY 280536
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID
WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EAST-WEST LINE OF CONVECTIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH THE ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT. POTENT
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS RESULTING IN RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY VALUES
HAVE DECREASED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE SOUTHERN
MOST PORTION WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE COMING INTO PLAY AND ARE ENHANCING THE
VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE REGION AIDING THE DEVELOPING OF THE STORMS
IN THE MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE STRONG
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE 3-KM HRRR CONTINUES TO ADJUST FOR THE PLACEMENT OF ON-GOING
CONVECTION AND HAS IT EXPANDING AND MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE KEPT MENTION HEAVY
RAINFALL IN FORECAST. THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL NOW BEGINS AT 6 AM.

THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING
WITH THE WELL DEFINED SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION
TOWARDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL
FEATURE SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL
THE END OF WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL
ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA.

SOME IFR FOG IS ONGOING AT KPSF/KGFL...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT
KALB/KPOU THANKS TO BUILDING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE.
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM LAKE ERIE...SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA TOWARDS
SUNRISE...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
CAN BE BRIEFLY HEAVY...AND A TEMPO FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN RAIN
SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAF FOR ALL TERMINALS.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW PRESSURE AND IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
INCLUDED IN ALL TAFS AS A PROB30 GROUP.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS FOR MON EVENING INTO MON NIGHT. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
VFR FOR ALL SITES.


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 280536
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID
WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EAST-WEST LINE OF CONVECTIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH THE ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT. POTENT
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS RESULTING IN RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY VALUES
HAVE DECREASED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE SOUTHERN
MOST PORTION WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE COMING INTO PLAY AND ARE ENHANCING THE
VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE REGION AIDING THE DEVELOPING OF THE STORMS
IN THE MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE STRONG
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE 3-KM HRRR CONTINUES TO ADJUST FOR THE PLACEMENT OF ON-GOING
CONVECTION AND HAS IT EXPANDING AND MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE KEPT MENTION HEAVY
RAINFALL IN FORECAST. THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL NOW BEGINS AT 6 AM.

THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING
WITH THE WELL DEFINED SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION
TOWARDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL
FEATURE SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL
THE END OF WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL
ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA.

SOME IFR FOG IS ONGOING AT KPSF/KGFL...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT
KALB/KPOU THANKS TO BUILDING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE.
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM LAKE ERIE...SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA TOWARDS
SUNRISE...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
CAN BE BRIEFLY HEAVY...AND A TEMPO FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN RAIN
SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAF FOR ALL TERMINALS.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW PRESSURE AND IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
INCLUDED IN ALL TAFS AS A PROB30 GROUP.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS FOR MON EVENING INTO MON NIGHT. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
VFR FOR ALL SITES.


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 280536
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID
WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EAST-WEST LINE OF CONVECTIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH THE ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT. POTENT
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS RESULTING IN RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY VALUES
HAVE DECREASED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE SOUTHERN
MOST PORTION WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE COMING INTO PLAY AND ARE ENHANCING THE
VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE REGION AIDING THE DEVELOPING OF THE STORMS
IN THE MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE STRONG
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE 3-KM HRRR CONTINUES TO ADJUST FOR THE PLACEMENT OF ON-GOING
CONVECTION AND HAS IT EXPANDING AND MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE KEPT MENTION HEAVY
RAINFALL IN FORECAST. THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL NOW BEGINS AT 6 AM.

THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING
WITH THE WELL DEFINED SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION
TOWARDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL
FEATURE SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL
THE END OF WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL
ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA.

SOME IFR FOG IS ONGOING AT KPSF/KGFL...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT
KALB/KPOU THANKS TO BUILDING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE.
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM LAKE ERIE...SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA TOWARDS
SUNRISE...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
CAN BE BRIEFLY HEAVY...AND A TEMPO FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN RAIN
SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAF FOR ALL TERMINALS.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW PRESSURE AND IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
INCLUDED IN ALL TAFS AS A PROB30 GROUP.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS FOR MON EVENING INTO MON NIGHT. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
VFR FOR ALL SITES.


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 280536
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID
WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EAST-WEST LINE OF CONVECTIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH THE ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT. POTENT
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS RESULTING IN RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY VALUES
HAVE DECREASED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE SOUTHERN
MOST PORTION WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE COMING INTO PLAY AND ARE ENHANCING THE
VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE REGION AIDING THE DEVELOPING OF THE STORMS
IN THE MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE STRONG
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE 3-KM HRRR CONTINUES TO ADJUST FOR THE PLACEMENT OF ON-GOING
CONVECTION AND HAS IT EXPANDING AND MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE KEPT MENTION HEAVY
RAINFALL IN FORECAST. THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL NOW BEGINS AT 6 AM.

THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING
WITH THE WELL DEFINED SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION
TOWARDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL
FEATURE SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL
THE END OF WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL
ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA.

SOME IFR FOG IS ONGOING AT KPSF/KGFL...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT
KALB/KPOU THANKS TO BUILDING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE.
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM LAKE ERIE...SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA TOWARDS
SUNRISE...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
CAN BE BRIEFLY HEAVY...AND A TEMPO FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN RAIN
SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAF FOR ALL TERMINALS.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING...BUT ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW PRESSURE AND IT/S COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
INCLUDED IN ALL TAFS AS A PROB30 GROUP.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS FOR MON EVENING INTO MON NIGHT. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
VFR FOR ALL SITES.


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 280513
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
113 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK WILL TRACK INTO
VERMONT ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL. A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN VERMONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO START THE WORK WEEK...WITH SOME
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 113 AM EDT SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND FROM
TODAY`S RAINFALL...I`VE ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
I`VE ALSO ADJUSTED POPS/WX AFTER MIDNIGHT TO BETTER SHOW TIMING OF
AREA OF MODERATE RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS NOW IMPACTING SOUTH-
CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE. HI-RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL
REFLECTIVITY PROGS AND SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION PUTS THE LEADING EDGE
OF THIS AREA OF MODERATE RAIN FROM THE SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY - ADIRONDACKS - SOUTHERN VT AREA AROUND 08-09Z. SHOWN HIGH
POPS (LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL) AND CONTINUING TO TAPER UPWARD
THROUGH 12Z. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BUT THUNDER`S ALREADY ONGOING
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK...IN ZONE OF MID-/UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
AND IN THE POLEWARD EXIT REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET STREAK
APPROACHING WESTERN PA. THAT SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL OFFSET THE
SCANT INSTABILITY AND KEEP THUNDER GOING AS BAND OF MODERATE RAIN
SPREADS NORTH. SO I`VE KEPT CHANCE THUNDER TIED TO THE
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS.

TEMPS LOOK REASONABLY GOOD WITH ONLY ADJUSTMENT HERE TO MATCH
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 1001 PM EDT SUNDAY FOLLOWS...

AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO DECREASE NOTICEABLY
TONIGHT. SHOULD ONLY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE LARGE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTHWEST. POTENT STORM SYSTEM COMING OUT OF
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS WELL AS IN PENNSYLVANIA...WITH THE FLOW
GRADUALLY BACKING AND ALLOWING ALL OF IT TO MOVE UP INTO OUR AREA
TOWARD MORNING. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND ONLY
TWEAKED GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
THE INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SUNDAY...POTENT SYSTEM WL IMPACT OUR CWA ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. IN ADDITION...STILL WATCHING FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG STORMS ACRS OUR EASTERN/SOUTHERN CWA ON MONDAY
AFTN...AS PART OF THIS AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL GENERAL BE BTWN 1 AND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY WITH
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FROM THE DACKS TO CPV TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT
MTNS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES...BUT COULD SEE SOME
MINOR POOR DRAINAGE URBAN FLOODING IN THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES ON
MONDAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT ACRS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...QUICKLY MOVING SE TWD THE OHIO VALLEY ATTM...WITH SOME
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALREADY NOTED UNDER THE 5H CIRCULATION. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND UPSTREAM ACTION TODAY...MAKES FOR A TRICKY
SFC LOW TRACK HEADING INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF A STRONG NW TO SE THERMAL BOUNDARY. AS VIGOROUS 5H VORT ROUNDS
MID/UPPER LVL TROF...SYSTEM WL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY 18Z
WEDS...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING FROM NEAR KBGM AT 12Z MONDAY TO
NORTHERN VT BY 00Z TUES. THIS TRACK PLACES OUR WESTERN CWA ON THE
COOL SIDE...WHILE PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON MONDAY AFTN. THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MID WAA LIFT/MOISTURE WL DEVELOP ACRS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AROUND 12Z MONDAY AND LIFT INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT 14Z...BEFORE BEING NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 16Z
MONDAY. THIS LIFT/MOISTURE WL RESULT IN A 2 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW OF
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. HOWEVER...AS SOME BREAKS
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AFTN...SFC INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 30 KNOTS. THINKING SCATTERED STORMS WL DEVELOP ACRS OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA...WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE....ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ON MONDAY WL BE
DRIVEN BY THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND NOT SO MUCH THE INSTABILITY. BOTH
THE GFS/NAM 850 TO 500MB RH PROGS SHOW A NICE WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
DEVELOPING ACRS OUR EASTERN CWA AT 18Z MONDAY...WHILE A BAND OF DEEP
RH ASSOCIATED WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM
THERMAL DRIVEN MID LVL TROWAL FEATURE WL HELP TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
MODERATE RAINFALL ACRS THE DACKS INTO THE CPV AND MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE
CLOSED 85H AND 7H CIRCULATIONS...AND SFC LOW...EXPECT BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION PRECIP TO LINGER OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
ON TUES MORNING. THINKING TOTAL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.25 AN 0.75"
SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 0.75 TO 1.75" EASTERN DACKS/CPV AND NORTHERN
VT....WITH AMOUNTS BTWN 0.50 AND 1.0" ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2.0" POSSIBLE DUE TO
CONVECTION AND TRRN. EXPECTING SOME SHARP RISES ON SMALLER
STREAMS/RIVERS...BUT GIVEN RECENT DRY SPELL NO MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES
ANTICIPATED ATTM. VERY INTERESTING TEMP PROFILE ON MONDAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE CPV/SLV AND LOW LEVEL CAA/CLOUDS...TEMPS WL
STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 50S DACKS TO L/M60S CPV/SLV AND MID 70S LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. THE MTNS OF VT WL HOLD IN THE U50S TO LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE NEK VALLEYS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL CLOSED CIRCULATION LIFTS INTO
EASTERN CANADA WITH CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACRS OUR CWA. BEST 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 12Z TUES...BUT GIVEN AMOUNT OF
ENERGY IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND SOME SFC HEATING ON TUES AFTN...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY
WL DECREASE BY TUES EVENING...WITH CHILLY NORTHWEST WINDS. TUES/TUES
NIGHT WL FEEL A BIT LIKE FALL WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
U50S/L60S MTNS TO NEAR 70F WARMER VALLEYS...ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS ONLY BTWN 6-8C. WINDS/CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL RH
WL KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT ON TUES NIGHT...THINKING
MAINLY 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH TROUGH
WEAKENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS.

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE TIME TO BE DRY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH
DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRONGEST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LARGELY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
TO BE AROUND 10-11C WED/THU THEN MODERATE TO 12-13C BY THE WEEKEND.
WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WED/THU AND AROUND 80 FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT MINS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...STILL LOOKING AT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...WHICH COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. BEST CHANCES FOR THESE
STORMS WILL BE AT KPBG...KBTV...KSLK...AND KMPV.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DECREASE SHARPLY AFTER 03Z AND VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP. COULD BE SOME FG/BR LATER TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF
CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS JUST
TO THE NORTH. BETWEEN 09-12Z RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT
INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER
POSSIBLE AT VERMONT SITES.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS PM. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 KTS
DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON









000
FXUS61 KBTV 280513
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
113 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK WILL TRACK INTO
VERMONT ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL. A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN VERMONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO START THE WORK WEEK...WITH SOME
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 113 AM EDT SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND FROM
TODAY`S RAINFALL...I`VE ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
I`VE ALSO ADJUSTED POPS/WX AFTER MIDNIGHT TO BETTER SHOW TIMING OF
AREA OF MODERATE RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS NOW IMPACTING SOUTH-
CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE. HI-RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL
REFLECTIVITY PROGS AND SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION PUTS THE LEADING EDGE
OF THIS AREA OF MODERATE RAIN FROM THE SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY - ADIRONDACKS - SOUTHERN VT AREA AROUND 08-09Z. SHOWN HIGH
POPS (LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL) AND CONTINUING TO TAPER UPWARD
THROUGH 12Z. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BUT THUNDER`S ALREADY ONGOING
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK...IN ZONE OF MID-/UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
AND IN THE POLEWARD EXIT REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET STREAK
APPROACHING WESTERN PA. THAT SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL OFFSET THE
SCANT INSTABILITY AND KEEP THUNDER GOING AS BAND OF MODERATE RAIN
SPREADS NORTH. SO I`VE KEPT CHANCE THUNDER TIED TO THE
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS.

TEMPS LOOK REASONABLY GOOD WITH ONLY ADJUSTMENT HERE TO MATCH
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 1001 PM EDT SUNDAY FOLLOWS...

AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO DECREASE NOTICEABLY
TONIGHT. SHOULD ONLY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE LARGE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTHWEST. POTENT STORM SYSTEM COMING OUT OF
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS WELL AS IN PENNSYLVANIA...WITH THE FLOW
GRADUALLY BACKING AND ALLOWING ALL OF IT TO MOVE UP INTO OUR AREA
TOWARD MORNING. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND ONLY
TWEAKED GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
THE INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SUNDAY...POTENT SYSTEM WL IMPACT OUR CWA ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. IN ADDITION...STILL WATCHING FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG STORMS ACRS OUR EASTERN/SOUTHERN CWA ON MONDAY
AFTN...AS PART OF THIS AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL GENERAL BE BTWN 1 AND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY WITH
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FROM THE DACKS TO CPV TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT
MTNS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES...BUT COULD SEE SOME
MINOR POOR DRAINAGE URBAN FLOODING IN THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES ON
MONDAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT ACRS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...QUICKLY MOVING SE TWD THE OHIO VALLEY ATTM...WITH SOME
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALREADY NOTED UNDER THE 5H CIRCULATION. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND UPSTREAM ACTION TODAY...MAKES FOR A TRICKY
SFC LOW TRACK HEADING INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF A STRONG NW TO SE THERMAL BOUNDARY. AS VIGOROUS 5H VORT ROUNDS
MID/UPPER LVL TROF...SYSTEM WL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY 18Z
WEDS...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING FROM NEAR KBGM AT 12Z MONDAY TO
NORTHERN VT BY 00Z TUES. THIS TRACK PLACES OUR WESTERN CWA ON THE
COOL SIDE...WHILE PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON MONDAY AFTN. THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MID WAA LIFT/MOISTURE WL DEVELOP ACRS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AROUND 12Z MONDAY AND LIFT INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT 14Z...BEFORE BEING NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 16Z
MONDAY. THIS LIFT/MOISTURE WL RESULT IN A 2 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW OF
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. HOWEVER...AS SOME BREAKS
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AFTN...SFC INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 30 KNOTS. THINKING SCATTERED STORMS WL DEVELOP ACRS OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA...WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE....ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ON MONDAY WL BE
DRIVEN BY THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND NOT SO MUCH THE INSTABILITY. BOTH
THE GFS/NAM 850 TO 500MB RH PROGS SHOW A NICE WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
DEVELOPING ACRS OUR EASTERN CWA AT 18Z MONDAY...WHILE A BAND OF DEEP
RH ASSOCIATED WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM
THERMAL DRIVEN MID LVL TROWAL FEATURE WL HELP TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
MODERATE RAINFALL ACRS THE DACKS INTO THE CPV AND MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE
CLOSED 85H AND 7H CIRCULATIONS...AND SFC LOW...EXPECT BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION PRECIP TO LINGER OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
ON TUES MORNING. THINKING TOTAL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.25 AN 0.75"
SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 0.75 TO 1.75" EASTERN DACKS/CPV AND NORTHERN
VT....WITH AMOUNTS BTWN 0.50 AND 1.0" ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2.0" POSSIBLE DUE TO
CONVECTION AND TRRN. EXPECTING SOME SHARP RISES ON SMALLER
STREAMS/RIVERS...BUT GIVEN RECENT DRY SPELL NO MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES
ANTICIPATED ATTM. VERY INTERESTING TEMP PROFILE ON MONDAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE CPV/SLV AND LOW LEVEL CAA/CLOUDS...TEMPS WL
STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 50S DACKS TO L/M60S CPV/SLV AND MID 70S LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. THE MTNS OF VT WL HOLD IN THE U50S TO LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE NEK VALLEYS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL CLOSED CIRCULATION LIFTS INTO
EASTERN CANADA WITH CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACRS OUR CWA. BEST 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 12Z TUES...BUT GIVEN AMOUNT OF
ENERGY IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND SOME SFC HEATING ON TUES AFTN...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY
WL DECREASE BY TUES EVENING...WITH CHILLY NORTHWEST WINDS. TUES/TUES
NIGHT WL FEEL A BIT LIKE FALL WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
U50S/L60S MTNS TO NEAR 70F WARMER VALLEYS...ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS ONLY BTWN 6-8C. WINDS/CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL RH
WL KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT ON TUES NIGHT...THINKING
MAINLY 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH TROUGH
WEAKENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS.

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE TIME TO BE DRY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH
DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRONGEST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LARGELY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
TO BE AROUND 10-11C WED/THU THEN MODERATE TO 12-13C BY THE WEEKEND.
WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WED/THU AND AROUND 80 FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT MINS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...STILL LOOKING AT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...WHICH COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. BEST CHANCES FOR THESE
STORMS WILL BE AT KPBG...KBTV...KSLK...AND KMPV.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DECREASE SHARPLY AFTER 03Z AND VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP. COULD BE SOME FG/BR LATER TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF
CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS JUST
TO THE NORTH. BETWEEN 09-12Z RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT
INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER
POSSIBLE AT VERMONT SITES.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS PM. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 KTS
DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON









000
FXUS61 KBTV 280513
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
113 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK WILL TRACK INTO
VERMONT ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL. A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN VERMONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO START THE WORK WEEK...WITH SOME
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 113 AM EDT SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND FROM
TODAY`S RAINFALL...I`VE ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
I`VE ALSO ADJUSTED POPS/WX AFTER MIDNIGHT TO BETTER SHOW TIMING OF
AREA OF MODERATE RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS NOW IMPACTING SOUTH-
CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE. HI-RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL
REFLECTIVITY PROGS AND SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION PUTS THE LEADING EDGE
OF THIS AREA OF MODERATE RAIN FROM THE SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY - ADIRONDACKS - SOUTHERN VT AREA AROUND 08-09Z. SHOWN HIGH
POPS (LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL) AND CONTINUING TO TAPER UPWARD
THROUGH 12Z. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BUT THUNDER`S ALREADY ONGOING
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK...IN ZONE OF MID-/UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
AND IN THE POLEWARD EXIT REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET STREAK
APPROACHING WESTERN PA. THAT SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL OFFSET THE
SCANT INSTABILITY AND KEEP THUNDER GOING AS BAND OF MODERATE RAIN
SPREADS NORTH. SO I`VE KEPT CHANCE THUNDER TIED TO THE
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS.

TEMPS LOOK REASONABLY GOOD WITH ONLY ADJUSTMENT HERE TO MATCH
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 1001 PM EDT SUNDAY FOLLOWS...

AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO DECREASE NOTICEABLY
TONIGHT. SHOULD ONLY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE LARGE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTHWEST. POTENT STORM SYSTEM COMING OUT OF
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS WELL AS IN PENNSYLVANIA...WITH THE FLOW
GRADUALLY BACKING AND ALLOWING ALL OF IT TO MOVE UP INTO OUR AREA
TOWARD MORNING. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND ONLY
TWEAKED GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
THE INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SUNDAY...POTENT SYSTEM WL IMPACT OUR CWA ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. IN ADDITION...STILL WATCHING FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG STORMS ACRS OUR EASTERN/SOUTHERN CWA ON MONDAY
AFTN...AS PART OF THIS AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL GENERAL BE BTWN 1 AND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY WITH
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FROM THE DACKS TO CPV TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT
MTNS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES...BUT COULD SEE SOME
MINOR POOR DRAINAGE URBAN FLOODING IN THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES ON
MONDAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT ACRS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...QUICKLY MOVING SE TWD THE OHIO VALLEY ATTM...WITH SOME
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALREADY NOTED UNDER THE 5H CIRCULATION. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND UPSTREAM ACTION TODAY...MAKES FOR A TRICKY
SFC LOW TRACK HEADING INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF A STRONG NW TO SE THERMAL BOUNDARY. AS VIGOROUS 5H VORT ROUNDS
MID/UPPER LVL TROF...SYSTEM WL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY 18Z
WEDS...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING FROM NEAR KBGM AT 12Z MONDAY TO
NORTHERN VT BY 00Z TUES. THIS TRACK PLACES OUR WESTERN CWA ON THE
COOL SIDE...WHILE PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON MONDAY AFTN. THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MID WAA LIFT/MOISTURE WL DEVELOP ACRS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AROUND 12Z MONDAY AND LIFT INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT 14Z...BEFORE BEING NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 16Z
MONDAY. THIS LIFT/MOISTURE WL RESULT IN A 2 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW OF
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. HOWEVER...AS SOME BREAKS
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AFTN...SFC INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 30 KNOTS. THINKING SCATTERED STORMS WL DEVELOP ACRS OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA...WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE....ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ON MONDAY WL BE
DRIVEN BY THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND NOT SO MUCH THE INSTABILITY. BOTH
THE GFS/NAM 850 TO 500MB RH PROGS SHOW A NICE WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
DEVELOPING ACRS OUR EASTERN CWA AT 18Z MONDAY...WHILE A BAND OF DEEP
RH ASSOCIATED WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM
THERMAL DRIVEN MID LVL TROWAL FEATURE WL HELP TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
MODERATE RAINFALL ACRS THE DACKS INTO THE CPV AND MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE
CLOSED 85H AND 7H CIRCULATIONS...AND SFC LOW...EXPECT BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION PRECIP TO LINGER OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
ON TUES MORNING. THINKING TOTAL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.25 AN 0.75"
SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 0.75 TO 1.75" EASTERN DACKS/CPV AND NORTHERN
VT....WITH AMOUNTS BTWN 0.50 AND 1.0" ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2.0" POSSIBLE DUE TO
CONVECTION AND TRRN. EXPECTING SOME SHARP RISES ON SMALLER
STREAMS/RIVERS...BUT GIVEN RECENT DRY SPELL NO MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES
ANTICIPATED ATTM. VERY INTERESTING TEMP PROFILE ON MONDAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE CPV/SLV AND LOW LEVEL CAA/CLOUDS...TEMPS WL
STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 50S DACKS TO L/M60S CPV/SLV AND MID 70S LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. THE MTNS OF VT WL HOLD IN THE U50S TO LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE NEK VALLEYS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL CLOSED CIRCULATION LIFTS INTO
EASTERN CANADA WITH CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACRS OUR CWA. BEST 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 12Z TUES...BUT GIVEN AMOUNT OF
ENERGY IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND SOME SFC HEATING ON TUES AFTN...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY
WL DECREASE BY TUES EVENING...WITH CHILLY NORTHWEST WINDS. TUES/TUES
NIGHT WL FEEL A BIT LIKE FALL WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
U50S/L60S MTNS TO NEAR 70F WARMER VALLEYS...ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS ONLY BTWN 6-8C. WINDS/CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL RH
WL KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT ON TUES NIGHT...THINKING
MAINLY 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH TROUGH
WEAKENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS.

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE TIME TO BE DRY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH
DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRONGEST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LARGELY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
TO BE AROUND 10-11C WED/THU THEN MODERATE TO 12-13C BY THE WEEKEND.
WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WED/THU AND AROUND 80 FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT MINS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...STILL LOOKING AT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...WHICH COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. BEST CHANCES FOR THESE
STORMS WILL BE AT KPBG...KBTV...KSLK...AND KMPV.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DECREASE SHARPLY AFTER 03Z AND VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP. COULD BE SOME FG/BR LATER TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF
CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS JUST
TO THE NORTH. BETWEEN 09-12Z RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT
INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER
POSSIBLE AT VERMONT SITES.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS PM. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 KTS
DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON









000
FXUS61 KBTV 280513
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
113 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK WILL TRACK INTO
VERMONT ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL. A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN VERMONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO START THE WORK WEEK...WITH SOME
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 113 AM EDT SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND FROM
TODAY`S RAINFALL...I`VE ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
I`VE ALSO ADJUSTED POPS/WX AFTER MIDNIGHT TO BETTER SHOW TIMING OF
AREA OF MODERATE RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS NOW IMPACTING SOUTH-
CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE. HI-RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL
REFLECTIVITY PROGS AND SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION PUTS THE LEADING EDGE
OF THIS AREA OF MODERATE RAIN FROM THE SOUTHERN ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY - ADIRONDACKS - SOUTHERN VT AREA AROUND 08-09Z. SHOWN HIGH
POPS (LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL) AND CONTINUING TO TAPER UPWARD
THROUGH 12Z. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BUT THUNDER`S ALREADY ONGOING
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK...IN ZONE OF MID-/UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
AND IN THE POLEWARD EXIT REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET STREAK
APPROACHING WESTERN PA. THAT SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL OFFSET THE
SCANT INSTABILITY AND KEEP THUNDER GOING AS BAND OF MODERATE RAIN
SPREADS NORTH. SO I`VE KEPT CHANCE THUNDER TIED TO THE
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS.

TEMPS LOOK REASONABLY GOOD WITH ONLY ADJUSTMENT HERE TO MATCH
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 1001 PM EDT SUNDAY FOLLOWS...

AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO DECREASE NOTICEABLY
TONIGHT. SHOULD ONLY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE LARGE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTHWEST. POTENT STORM SYSTEM COMING OUT OF
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS WELL AS IN PENNSYLVANIA...WITH THE FLOW
GRADUALLY BACKING AND ALLOWING ALL OF IT TO MOVE UP INTO OUR AREA
TOWARD MORNING. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND ONLY
TWEAKED GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
THE INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SUNDAY...POTENT SYSTEM WL IMPACT OUR CWA ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. IN ADDITION...STILL WATCHING FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG STORMS ACRS OUR EASTERN/SOUTHERN CWA ON MONDAY
AFTN...AS PART OF THIS AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL GENERAL BE BTWN 1 AND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY WITH
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FROM THE DACKS TO CPV TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT
MTNS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES...BUT COULD SEE SOME
MINOR POOR DRAINAGE URBAN FLOODING IN THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES ON
MONDAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT ACRS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...QUICKLY MOVING SE TWD THE OHIO VALLEY ATTM...WITH SOME
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALREADY NOTED UNDER THE 5H CIRCULATION. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND UPSTREAM ACTION TODAY...MAKES FOR A TRICKY
SFC LOW TRACK HEADING INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF A STRONG NW TO SE THERMAL BOUNDARY. AS VIGOROUS 5H VORT ROUNDS
MID/UPPER LVL TROF...SYSTEM WL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY 18Z
WEDS...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING FROM NEAR KBGM AT 12Z MONDAY TO
NORTHERN VT BY 00Z TUES. THIS TRACK PLACES OUR WESTERN CWA ON THE
COOL SIDE...WHILE PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON MONDAY AFTN. THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MID WAA LIFT/MOISTURE WL DEVELOP ACRS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AROUND 12Z MONDAY AND LIFT INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT 14Z...BEFORE BEING NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 16Z
MONDAY. THIS LIFT/MOISTURE WL RESULT IN A 2 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW OF
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. HOWEVER...AS SOME BREAKS
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AFTN...SFC INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 30 KNOTS. THINKING SCATTERED STORMS WL DEVELOP ACRS OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA...WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE....ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ON MONDAY WL BE
DRIVEN BY THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND NOT SO MUCH THE INSTABILITY. BOTH
THE GFS/NAM 850 TO 500MB RH PROGS SHOW A NICE WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
DEVELOPING ACRS OUR EASTERN CWA AT 18Z MONDAY...WHILE A BAND OF DEEP
RH ASSOCIATED WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM
THERMAL DRIVEN MID LVL TROWAL FEATURE WL HELP TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
MODERATE RAINFALL ACRS THE DACKS INTO THE CPV AND MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE
CLOSED 85H AND 7H CIRCULATIONS...AND SFC LOW...EXPECT BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION PRECIP TO LINGER OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
ON TUES MORNING. THINKING TOTAL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.25 AN 0.75"
SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 0.75 TO 1.75" EASTERN DACKS/CPV AND NORTHERN
VT....WITH AMOUNTS BTWN 0.50 AND 1.0" ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2.0" POSSIBLE DUE TO
CONVECTION AND TRRN. EXPECTING SOME SHARP RISES ON SMALLER
STREAMS/RIVERS...BUT GIVEN RECENT DRY SPELL NO MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES
ANTICIPATED ATTM. VERY INTERESTING TEMP PROFILE ON MONDAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE CPV/SLV AND LOW LEVEL CAA/CLOUDS...TEMPS WL
STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 50S DACKS TO L/M60S CPV/SLV AND MID 70S LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. THE MTNS OF VT WL HOLD IN THE U50S TO LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE NEK VALLEYS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL CLOSED CIRCULATION LIFTS INTO
EASTERN CANADA WITH CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACRS OUR CWA. BEST 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 12Z TUES...BUT GIVEN AMOUNT OF
ENERGY IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND SOME SFC HEATING ON TUES AFTN...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY
WL DECREASE BY TUES EVENING...WITH CHILLY NORTHWEST WINDS. TUES/TUES
NIGHT WL FEEL A BIT LIKE FALL WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
U50S/L60S MTNS TO NEAR 70F WARMER VALLEYS...ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS ONLY BTWN 6-8C. WINDS/CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL RH
WL KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT ON TUES NIGHT...THINKING
MAINLY 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH TROUGH
WEAKENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS.

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE TIME TO BE DRY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH
DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRONGEST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LARGELY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
TO BE AROUND 10-11C WED/THU THEN MODERATE TO 12-13C BY THE WEEKEND.
WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WED/THU AND AROUND 80 FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT MINS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...STILL LOOKING AT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...WHICH COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. BEST CHANCES FOR THESE
STORMS WILL BE AT KPBG...KBTV...KSLK...AND KMPV.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DECREASE SHARPLY AFTER 03Z AND VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP. COULD BE SOME FG/BR LATER TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF
CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS JUST
TO THE NORTH. BETWEEN 09-12Z RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT
INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER
POSSIBLE AT VERMONT SITES.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS PM. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 KTS
DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON









000
FXUS61 KALY 280506
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
104 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID
WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EAST-WEST LINE OF CONVECTIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH THE ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT. POTENT
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS RESULTING IN RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY VALUES
HAVE DECREASED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE SOUTHERN
MOST PORTION WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE COMING INTO PLAY AND ARE ENHANCING THE
VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE REGION AIDING THE DEVELOPING OF THE STORMS
IN THE MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE STRONG
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE 3-KM HRRR CONTINUES TO ADJUST FOR THE PLACEMENT OF ON-GOING
CONVECTION AND HAS IT EXPANDING AND MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE KEPT MENTION HEAVY
RAINFALL IN FORECAST. THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL NOW BEGINS AT 6 AM.

THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING
WITH THE WELL DEFINED SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION
TOWARDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL
FEATURE SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL
THE END OF WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL
ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IS IN A WARM SECTOR EARLY THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT...AND A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT REGION INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF SOME
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THAT
IMPACTED KALB AND KPSF. SOME PATCHY MIST MAY FORM EARLY ON FROM
KALB NORTH AND EAST. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
AND RECENTLY WET GROUND FOR KPSF WILL PROMOTE THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED FROM 02Z-06Z
THERE. OTHERWISE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER
FROM THE W/SW TO THE N/NE.

THE ONSET OF A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OR STRATIFORM RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BWTN 06Z-
10Z. INITIALLY IMPACTING KPOU TOWARDS 08Z...AND THEN KALB AND KPSF
AROUND 09Z...AND KGFL TOWARDS 10Z. A PROB30 GROUP WAS CONTINUED
FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR A 25-49 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE.  HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE AREA OF RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS. LATER FORECASTS CAN REFINE THE USAGE OF TEMPOS FOR THE
THUNDERSTORMS BTWN 09Z-16Z. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS...EVENTUALLY
INCREASING TO LOW VFR CIGS BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OR CALM EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND THEN BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 7 KTS
TOWARDS 12Z/MON...EXCEPT SOME SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH
STRONGER GUSTS TO 30 KTS MAY OCCUR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 10-18 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
GREATER THAN 25 KTS AT KALB IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS











000
FXUS61 KALY 280506
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
104 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID
WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EAST-WEST LINE OF CONVECTIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH THE ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT. POTENT
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS RESULTING IN RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY VALUES
HAVE DECREASED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE SOUTHERN
MOST PORTION WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE COMING INTO PLAY AND ARE ENHANCING THE
VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE REGION AIDING THE DEVELOPING OF THE STORMS
IN THE MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE STRONG
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE 3-KM HRRR CONTINUES TO ADJUST FOR THE PLACEMENT OF ON-GOING
CONVECTION AND HAS IT EXPANDING AND MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE KEPT MENTION HEAVY
RAINFALL IN FORECAST. THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL NOW BEGINS AT 6 AM.

THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING
WITH THE WELL DEFINED SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION
TOWARDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL
FEATURE SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL
THE END OF WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL
ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IS IN A WARM SECTOR EARLY THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT...AND A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT REGION INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF SOME
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THAT
IMPACTED KALB AND KPSF. SOME PATCHY MIST MAY FORM EARLY ON FROM
KALB NORTH AND EAST. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
AND RECENTLY WET GROUND FOR KPSF WILL PROMOTE THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED FROM 02Z-06Z
THERE. OTHERWISE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER
FROM THE W/SW TO THE N/NE.

THE ONSET OF A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OR STRATIFORM RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BWTN 06Z-
10Z. INITIALLY IMPACTING KPOU TOWARDS 08Z...AND THEN KALB AND KPSF
AROUND 09Z...AND KGFL TOWARDS 10Z. A PROB30 GROUP WAS CONTINUED
FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR A 25-49 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE.  HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE AREA OF RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS. LATER FORECASTS CAN REFINE THE USAGE OF TEMPOS FOR THE
THUNDERSTORMS BTWN 09Z-16Z. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS...EVENTUALLY
INCREASING TO LOW VFR CIGS BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OR CALM EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND THEN BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 7 KTS
TOWARDS 12Z/MON...EXCEPT SOME SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH
STRONGER GUSTS TO 30 KTS MAY OCCUR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 10-18 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
GREATER THAN 25 KTS AT KALB IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS










000
FXUS61 KALY 280504
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
104 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID
WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EAST-WEST LINE OF CONVECTIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH THE ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT. POTENT
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS RESULTING IN RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY VALUES
HAVE DECREASED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE SOUTHERN
MOST PORTION WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE COMING INTO PLAY AND ARE ENHANCING THE
VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE REGION AIDING THE DEVELOPING OF THE STORMS
IN THE MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE STRONG
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE 3-KM HRRR CONTINUES TO ADJUST FOR THE PLACEMENT OF ON-GOING
CONVECTION AND HAS IT EXPANDING AND MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE KEPT MENTION HEAVY
RAINFALL IN FORECAST. THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL NOW BEGINS AT 6 AM.

THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING
WITH THE WELL DEFINED SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION
TOWARDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL
FEATURE SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL
THE END OF WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL
ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IS IN A WARM SECTOR EARLY THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT...AND A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT REGION INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF SOME
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THAT
IMPACTED KALB AND KPSF. SOME PATCHY MIST MAY FORM EARLY ON FROM
KALB NORTH AND EAST. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
AND RECENTLY WET GROUND FOR KPSF WILL PROMOTE THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED FROM 02Z-06Z
THERE. OTHERWISE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER
FROM THE W/SW TO THE N/NE.

THE ONSET OF A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OR STRATIFORM RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BWTN 06Z-
10Z. INITIALLY IMPACTING KPOU TOWARDS 08Z...AND THEN KALB AND KPSF
AROUND 09Z...AND KGFL TOWARDS 10Z. A PROB30 GROUP WAS CONTINUED
FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR A 25-49 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE.  HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE AREA OF RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS. LATER FORECASTS CAN REFINE THE USAGE OF TEMPOS FOR THE
THUNDERSTORMS BTWN 09Z-16Z. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS...EVENTUALLY
INCREASING TO LOW VFR CIGS BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OR CALM EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND THEN BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 7 KTS
TOWARDS 12Z/MON...EXCEPT SOME SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH
STRONGER GUSTS TO 30 KTS MAY OCCUR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 10-18 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
GREATER THAN 25 KTS AT KALB IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 280504
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
104 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AS WE HEAD THROUGH MID
WEEK...HOWEVER ALOFT DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EAST-WEST LINE OF CONVECTIVE WITH HEAVY RAIN HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH THE ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT. POTENT
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS RESULTING IN RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY VALUES
HAVE DECREASED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE SOUTHERN
MOST PORTION WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE COMING INTO PLAY AND ARE ENHANCING THE
VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE REGION AIDING THE DEVELOPING OF THE STORMS
IN THE MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE STRONG
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE 3-KM HRRR CONTINUES TO ADJUST FOR THE PLACEMENT OF ON-GOING
CONVECTION AND HAS IT EXPANDING AND MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE KEPT MENTION HEAVY
RAINFALL IN FORECAST. THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR THE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL NOW BEGINS AT 6 AM.

THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING
WITH THE WELL DEFINED SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION
TOWARDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL
FEATURE SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL
THE END OF WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL
ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IS IN A WARM SECTOR EARLY THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT...AND A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT REGION INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF SOME
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THAT
IMPACTED KALB AND KPSF. SOME PATCHY MIST MAY FORM EARLY ON FROM
KALB NORTH AND EAST. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
AND RECENTLY WET GROUND FOR KPSF WILL PROMOTE THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED FROM 02Z-06Z
THERE. OTHERWISE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER
FROM THE W/SW TO THE N/NE.

THE ONSET OF A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OR STRATIFORM RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BWTN 06Z-
10Z. INITIALLY IMPACTING KPOU TOWARDS 08Z...AND THEN KALB AND KPSF
AROUND 09Z...AND KGFL TOWARDS 10Z. A PROB30 GROUP WAS CONTINUED
FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR A 25-49 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE.  HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE AREA OF RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS. LATER FORECASTS CAN REFINE THE USAGE OF TEMPOS FOR THE
THUNDERSTORMS BTWN 09Z-16Z. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS...EVENTUALLY
INCREASING TO LOW VFR CIGS BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OR CALM EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND THEN BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 7 KTS
TOWARDS 12Z/MON...EXCEPT SOME SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH
STRONGER GUSTS TO 30 KTS MAY OCCUR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 10-18 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
GREATER THAN 25 KTS AT KALB IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 280234
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1034 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES NORTHEAST ACROSS
UPSTATE NEW YORK OVERNIGHT.  RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS STORM WILL DEPART
MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION. MID WEEKS
WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1034 PM EDT...A BRIEF LULL IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EARLY THIS EVENING...AS MOST OF THE FCST AREA HAS ENTERED
A WARM SECTOR WITH AN APPROACHING SFC TROUGH/INITIAL WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH HAS FOCUSED THE CONVECTION OVER CNTRL-ERN PA...AND
CNTRL NY-PA BORDER. A MORE IMPRESSIVE SFC WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE
APPROACHING FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES/EXTREME WRN NY/OH CORRIDOR
WITH ANOTHER AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
THOSE AREA.

THE 00Z RAOBS INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF SFC INSTABILITY UPSTREAM AT
KBUF AND KPIT...WITH A POOL OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE
00Z BUF RAOB HAS AN H850-500 LAPSE RATE OF 7.2C/KM WITH A SBCAPE
OF 1146 J/KG. KALB STILL HAS A RESPECTABLE SBCAPE OF 1343 J/KG
WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF JUST UNDER 6.5C/KM.
THE 0-6 KM DEEP SHEAR IS CLOSE TO 40 KTS...FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SOME STORM ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT. THE SHEAR IS STRONGEST IN THE
H850-500 LAYER WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL WINDS INITIALLY...BUT THESE
LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD INCREASE BETWEEN 09Z-12Z WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE SFC WAVE...AND THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD SEE THE INSTABILITY WANE A BIT... WITH SBCAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG BUT THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL START TO INCREASE.
AN IMPRESSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
REGION. A PLUME OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THE FCST AREA WILL BE NORTH OF THE
LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET STREAK. STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER
DAY BREAK.

THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE 3-KM HRRR IN TERMS
OF THE PLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTION BASED ON THE BASE REF PRODUCT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LEAD
DISTURBANCE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
SOUTH...AND THEN 3 AM TO 6 AM TO THE NORTH. SOME SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
PWATS IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES. THE
POPS ARE TRENDED THIS WAY. THE BEST CHC OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK.

THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING
WITH THE WELL DEFINED SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION
TOWARDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL
FEATURE SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL
THE END OF WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL
ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IS IN A WARM SECTOR EARLY THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT...AND A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT REGION INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF SOME
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THAT
IMPACTED KALB AND KPSF. SOME PATCHY MIST MAY FORM EARLY ON FROM
KALB NORTH AND EAST. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
AND RECENTLY WET GROUND FOR KPSF WILL PROMOTE THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED FROM 02Z-06Z
THERE. OTHERWISE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER
FROM THE W/SW TO THE N/NE.

THE ONSET OF A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OR STRATIFORM RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BWTN 06Z-
10Z. INITIALLY IMPACTING KPOU TOWARDS 08Z...AND THEN KALB AND KPSF
AROUND 09Z...AND KGFL TOWARDS 10Z. A PROB30 GROUP WAS CONTINUED
FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR A 25-49 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE.  HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE AREA OF RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS. LATER FORECASTS CAN REFINE THE USAGE OF TEMPOS FOR THE
THUNDERSTORMS BTWN 09Z-16Z. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS...EVENTUALLY
INCREASING TO LOW VFR CIGS BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OR CALM EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND THEN BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 7 KTS
TOWARDS 12Z/MON...EXCEPT SOME SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH
STRONGER GUSTS TO 30 KTS MAY OCCUR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 10-18 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
GREATER THAN 25 KTS AT KALB IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 280201
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1001 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK WILL TRACK INTO
VERMONT ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL. A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN VERMONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO START THE WORK WEEK...WITH SOME
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1001 PM EDT SUNDAY...AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO
DECREASE NOTICEABLY TONIGHT. SHOULD ONLY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE
LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTHWEST. POTENT STORM SYSTEM
COMING OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
ENHANCE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS WELL AS IN PENNSYLVANIA...WITH THE FLOW
GRADUALLY BACKING AND ALLOWING ALL OF IT TO MOVE UP INTO OUR AREA
TOWARD MORNING. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND ONLY
TWEAKED GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
THE INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SUNDAY...POTENT SYSTEM WL IMPACT OUR CWA ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. IN ADDITION...STILL WATCHING FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG STORMS ACRS OUR EASTERN/SOUTHERN CWA ON MONDAY
AFTN...AS PART OF THIS AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL GENERAL BE BTWN 1 AND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY WITH
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FROM THE DACKS TO CPV TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT
MTNS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES...BUT COULD SEE SOME
MINOR POOR DRAINAGE URBAN FLOODING IN THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES ON
MONDAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT ACRS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...QUICKLY MOVING SE TWD THE OHIO VALLEY ATTM...WITH SOME
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALREADY NOTED UNDER THE 5H CIRCULATION. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND UPSTREAM ACTION TODAY...MAKES FOR A TRICKY
SFC LOW TRACK HEADING INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF A STRONG NW TO SE THERMAL BOUNDARY. AS VIGOROUS 5H VORT ROUNDS
MID/UPPER LVL TROF...SYSTEM WL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY 18Z
WEDS...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING FROM NEAR KBGM AT 12Z MONDAY TO
NORTHERN VT BY 00Z TUES. THIS TRACK PLACES OUR WESTERN CWA ON THE
COOL SIDE...WHILE PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON MONDAY AFTN. THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MID WAA LIFT/MOISTURE WL DEVELOP ACRS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AROUND 12Z MONDAY AND LIFT INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT 14Z...BEFORE BEING NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 16Z
MONDAY. THIS LIFT/MOISTURE WL RESULT IN A 2 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW OF
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. HOWEVER...AS SOME BREAKS
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AFTN...SFC INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 30 KNOTS. THINKING SCATTERED STORMS WL DEVELOP ACRS OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA...WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE....ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ON MONDAY WL BE
DRIVEN BY THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND NOT SO MUCH THE INSTABILITY. BOTH
THE GFS/NAM 850 TO 500MB RH PROGS SHOW A NICE WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
DEVELOPING ACRS OUR EASTERN CWA AT 18Z MONDAY...WHILE A BAND OF DEEP
RH ASSOCIATED WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM
THERMAL DRIVEN MID LVL TROWAL FEATURE WL HELP TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
MODERATE RAINFALL ACRS THE DACKS INTO THE CPV AND MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE
CLOSED 85H AND 7H CIRCULATIONS...AND SFC LOW...EXPECT BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION PRECIP TO LINGER OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
ON TUES MORNING. THINKING TOTAL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.25 AN 0.75"
SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 0.75 TO 1.75" EASTERN DACKS/CPV AND NORTHERN
VT....WITH AMOUNTS BTWN 0.50 AND 1.0" ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2.0" POSSIBLE DUE TO
CONVECTION AND TRRN. EXPECTING SOME SHARP RISES ON SMALLER
STREAMS/RIVERS...BUT GIVEN RECENT DRY SPELL NO MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES
ANTICIPATED ATTM. VERY INTERESTING TEMP PROFILE ON MONDAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE CPV/SLV AND LOW LEVEL CAA/CLOUDS...TEMPS WL
STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 50S DACKS TO L/M60S CPV/SLV AND MID 70S LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. THE MTNS OF VT WL HOLD IN THE U50S TO LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE NEK VALLEYS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL CLOSED CIRCULATION LIFTS INTO
EASTERN CANADA WITH CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACRS OUR CWA. BEST 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 12Z TUES...BUT GIVEN AMOUNT OF
ENERGY IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND SOME SFC HEATING ON TUES AFTN...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY
WL DECREASE BY TUES EVENING...WITH CHILLY NORTHWEST WINDS. TUES/TUES
NIGHT WL FEEL A BIT LIKE FALL WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
U50S/L60S MTNS TO NEAR 70F WARMER VALLEYS...ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS ONLY BTWN 6-8C. WINDS/CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL RH
WL KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT ON TUES NIGHT...THINKING
MAINLY 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH TROUGH
WEAKENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS.

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE TIME TO BE DRY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH
DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRONGEST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LARGELY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
TO BE AROUND 10-11C WED/THU THEN MODERATE TO 12-13C BY THE WEEKEND.
WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WED/THU AND AROUND 80 FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT MINS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...STILL LOOKING AT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...WHICH COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. BEST CHANCES FOR THESE
STORMS WILL BE AT KPBG...KBTV...KSLK...AND KMPV.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DECREASE SHARPLY AFTER 03Z AND VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP. COULD BE SOME FG/BR LATER TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF
CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS JUST
TO THE NORTH. BETWEEN 09-12Z RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT
INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER
POSSIBLE AT VERMONT SITES.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS PM. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 KTS
DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON








000
FXUS61 KBTV 280201
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1001 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK WILL TRACK INTO
VERMONT ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL. A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN VERMONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO START THE WORK WEEK...WITH SOME
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1001 PM EDT SUNDAY...AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO
DECREASE NOTICEABLY TONIGHT. SHOULD ONLY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE
LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTHWEST. POTENT STORM SYSTEM
COMING OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
ENHANCE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS WELL AS IN PENNSYLVANIA...WITH THE FLOW
GRADUALLY BACKING AND ALLOWING ALL OF IT TO MOVE UP INTO OUR AREA
TOWARD MORNING. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND ONLY
TWEAKED GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
THE INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SUNDAY...POTENT SYSTEM WL IMPACT OUR CWA ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. IN ADDITION...STILL WATCHING FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG STORMS ACRS OUR EASTERN/SOUTHERN CWA ON MONDAY
AFTN...AS PART OF THIS AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL GENERAL BE BTWN 1 AND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY WITH
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FROM THE DACKS TO CPV TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT
MTNS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES...BUT COULD SEE SOME
MINOR POOR DRAINAGE URBAN FLOODING IN THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES ON
MONDAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT ACRS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...QUICKLY MOVING SE TWD THE OHIO VALLEY ATTM...WITH SOME
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALREADY NOTED UNDER THE 5H CIRCULATION. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND UPSTREAM ACTION TODAY...MAKES FOR A TRICKY
SFC LOW TRACK HEADING INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF A STRONG NW TO SE THERMAL BOUNDARY. AS VIGOROUS 5H VORT ROUNDS
MID/UPPER LVL TROF...SYSTEM WL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY 18Z
WEDS...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING FROM NEAR KBGM AT 12Z MONDAY TO
NORTHERN VT BY 00Z TUES. THIS TRACK PLACES OUR WESTERN CWA ON THE
COOL SIDE...WHILE PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON MONDAY AFTN. THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MID WAA LIFT/MOISTURE WL DEVELOP ACRS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AROUND 12Z MONDAY AND LIFT INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT 14Z...BEFORE BEING NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 16Z
MONDAY. THIS LIFT/MOISTURE WL RESULT IN A 2 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW OF
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. HOWEVER...AS SOME BREAKS
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AFTN...SFC INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 30 KNOTS. THINKING SCATTERED STORMS WL DEVELOP ACRS OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA...WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE....ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ON MONDAY WL BE
DRIVEN BY THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND NOT SO MUCH THE INSTABILITY. BOTH
THE GFS/NAM 850 TO 500MB RH PROGS SHOW A NICE WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
DEVELOPING ACRS OUR EASTERN CWA AT 18Z MONDAY...WHILE A BAND OF DEEP
RH ASSOCIATED WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM
THERMAL DRIVEN MID LVL TROWAL FEATURE WL HELP TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
MODERATE RAINFALL ACRS THE DACKS INTO THE CPV AND MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE
CLOSED 85H AND 7H CIRCULATIONS...AND SFC LOW...EXPECT BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION PRECIP TO LINGER OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
ON TUES MORNING. THINKING TOTAL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.25 AN 0.75"
SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 0.75 TO 1.75" EASTERN DACKS/CPV AND NORTHERN
VT....WITH AMOUNTS BTWN 0.50 AND 1.0" ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2.0" POSSIBLE DUE TO
CONVECTION AND TRRN. EXPECTING SOME SHARP RISES ON SMALLER
STREAMS/RIVERS...BUT GIVEN RECENT DRY SPELL NO MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES
ANTICIPATED ATTM. VERY INTERESTING TEMP PROFILE ON MONDAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE CPV/SLV AND LOW LEVEL CAA/CLOUDS...TEMPS WL
STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 50S DACKS TO L/M60S CPV/SLV AND MID 70S LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. THE MTNS OF VT WL HOLD IN THE U50S TO LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE NEK VALLEYS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL CLOSED CIRCULATION LIFTS INTO
EASTERN CANADA WITH CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACRS OUR CWA. BEST 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 12Z TUES...BUT GIVEN AMOUNT OF
ENERGY IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND SOME SFC HEATING ON TUES AFTN...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY
WL DECREASE BY TUES EVENING...WITH CHILLY NORTHWEST WINDS. TUES/TUES
NIGHT WL FEEL A BIT LIKE FALL WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
U50S/L60S MTNS TO NEAR 70F WARMER VALLEYS...ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS ONLY BTWN 6-8C. WINDS/CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL RH
WL KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT ON TUES NIGHT...THINKING
MAINLY 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH TROUGH
WEAKENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS.

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE TIME TO BE DRY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH
DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRONGEST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LARGELY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
TO BE AROUND 10-11C WED/THU THEN MODERATE TO 12-13C BY THE WEEKEND.
WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WED/THU AND AROUND 80 FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT MINS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...STILL LOOKING AT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...WHICH COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. BEST CHANCES FOR THESE
STORMS WILL BE AT KPBG...KBTV...KSLK...AND KMPV.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DECREASE SHARPLY AFTER 03Z AND VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP. COULD BE SOME FG/BR LATER TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF
CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS JUST
TO THE NORTH. BETWEEN 09-12Z RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT
INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER
POSSIBLE AT VERMONT SITES.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS PM. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 KTS
DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON







000
FXUS61 KALY 280004
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
804 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED CONVECTION INTO CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS NOW. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ON RADAR FROM SCHOHARIE THROUGH GREENE
AND COLUMBIA COUNTIES FOR ANY NEW CONVECTION. DIURNAL COOLING
OCCURRING SO CHANCES OF ANY NEW CONVECTION DECREASING. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...IF ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS DO
DEVLOP...COULD BE SEVERE. THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR MARGINAL SEVERE
TRANSITIONING TO VERY HEAVY RAIN. WORDING SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST. QUITE A BIT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS
OCCURRED UPSTREAM SO WE HAVE TO CAREFULLY WATCH THE MODE OF
CONVECTION AS IT TRACKS INTO OUR REGION BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
SUNRISE.

QUITE A SPIN TO THE UPPER IMPULSE IN THE GREAT LAKES AND QUITE A
BIT OF CONVECTION EXPANDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN
VALLEY. THERE HAS BEEN A DECENT CONSENSUS FROM GUIDANCE IN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS FOR UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL AND
JET FORCING TO SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION TRACKING OUT OF THE NORTH
MID ATLANTIC...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...NORTHWEST CT AND THE BERKSHIRES...PERHAPS SCRAPING THE
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SOUTHERN VT.

NIGHTTIME CONVECTION OFTEN WEAKER THAN DAYTIME CONVECTION BUT THE
PREDICTED INSTABILITY...UPPER AND LOW LEVEL JET STRUCTURE AND
UPPER DYNAMICS WITH A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW TRACKING
THROUGH THE REGION...EARLY TO MID MORNING THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
COULD FLIRT WITH SEVERE LEVELS. WILL HAVE TO CHECK LIFTED
CONDENSATION LEVELS AS STORMS APPROACH LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS ARE WORTH MONITORING WITH THE WELL
DEFINED SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL FEATURE
SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL THE END OF
WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL ATLANTIC BUILDS
WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IS IN A WARM SECTOR EARLY THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT...AND A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT REGION INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF SOME
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THAT
IMPACTED KALB AND KPSF. SOME PATCHY MIST MAY FORM EARLY ON FROM
KALB NORTH AND EAST. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
AND RECENTLY WET GROUND FOR KPSF WILL PROMOTE THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED FROM 02Z-06Z
THERE. OTHERWISE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER
FROM THE W/SW TO THE N/NE.

THE ONSET OF A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OR STRATIFORM RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BWTN 06Z-
10Z. INITIALLY IMPACTING KPOU TOWARDS 08Z...AND THEN KALB AND KPSF
AROUND 09Z...AND KGFL TOWARDS 10Z. A PROB30 GROUP WAS CONTINUED
FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR A 25-49 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE.  HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE AREA OF RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS. LATER FORECASTS CAN REFINE THE USAGE OF TEMPOS FOR THE
THUNDERSTORMS BTWN 09Z-16Z. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS...EVENTUALLY
INCREASING TO LOW VFR CIGS BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OR CALM EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND THEN BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 7 KTS
TOWARDS 12Z/MON...EXCEPT SOME SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH
STRONGER GUSTS TO 30 KTS MAY OCCUR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 10-18 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
GREATER THAN 25 KTS AT KALB IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 280004
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
804 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED CONVECTION INTO CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS NOW. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ON RADAR FROM SCHOHARIE THROUGH GREENE
AND COLUMBIA COUNTIES FOR ANY NEW CONVECTION. DIURNAL COOLING
OCCURRING SO CHANCES OF ANY NEW CONVECTION DECREASING. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...IF ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS DO
DEVLOP...COULD BE SEVERE. THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR MARGINAL SEVERE
TRANSITIONING TO VERY HEAVY RAIN. WORDING SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST. QUITE A BIT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS
OCCURRED UPSTREAM SO WE HAVE TO CAREFULLY WATCH THE MODE OF
CONVECTION AS IT TRACKS INTO OUR REGION BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
SUNRISE.

QUITE A SPIN TO THE UPPER IMPULSE IN THE GREAT LAKES AND QUITE A
BIT OF CONVECTION EXPANDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN
VALLEY. THERE HAS BEEN A DECENT CONSENSUS FROM GUIDANCE IN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS FOR UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL AND
JET FORCING TO SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION TRACKING OUT OF THE NORTH
MID ATLANTIC...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...NORTHWEST CT AND THE BERKSHIRES...PERHAPS SCRAPING THE
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SOUTHERN VT.

NIGHTTIME CONVECTION OFTEN WEAKER THAN DAYTIME CONVECTION BUT THE
PREDICTED INSTABILITY...UPPER AND LOW LEVEL JET STRUCTURE AND
UPPER DYNAMICS WITH A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW TRACKING
THROUGH THE REGION...EARLY TO MID MORNING THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
COULD FLIRT WITH SEVERE LEVELS. WILL HAVE TO CHECK LIFTED
CONDENSATION LEVELS AS STORMS APPROACH LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS ARE WORTH MONITORING WITH THE WELL
DEFINED SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL FEATURE
SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL THE END OF
WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL ATLANTIC BUILDS
WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IS IN A WARM SECTOR EARLY THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT...AND A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT REGION INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF SOME
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THAT
IMPACTED KALB AND KPSF. SOME PATCHY MIST MAY FORM EARLY ON FROM
KALB NORTH AND EAST. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
AND RECENTLY WET GROUND FOR KPSF WILL PROMOTE THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS. A TEMPO GROUP WAS USED FROM 02Z-06Z
THERE. OTHERWISE THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER
FROM THE W/SW TO THE N/NE.

THE ONSET OF A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OR STRATIFORM RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BWTN 06Z-
10Z. INITIALLY IMPACTING KPOU TOWARDS 08Z...AND THEN KALB AND KPSF
AROUND 09Z...AND KGFL TOWARDS 10Z. A PROB30 GROUP WAS CONTINUED
FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST FOR A 25-49 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE STRONG DISTURBANCE.  HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE AREA OF RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS. LATER FORECASTS CAN REFINE THE USAGE OF TEMPOS FOR THE
THUNDERSTORMS BTWN 09Z-16Z. THE RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS...EVENTUALLY
INCREASING TO LOW VFR CIGS BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OR CALM EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND THEN BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 7 KTS
TOWARDS 12Z/MON...EXCEPT SOME SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH
STRONGER GUSTS TO 30 KTS MAY OCCUR WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO NW AT 10-18 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
GREATER THAN 25 KTS AT KALB IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 272335
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
735 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK WILL TRACK INTO
VERMONT ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL. A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN VERMONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO START THE WORK WEEK...WITH SOME
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 651 PM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST TO JUST
INDICATE A BIT MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA
THROUGH ABOUT 02Z...WITH SOME OF THE STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL. OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
AREAL COVERAGE DECREASING OVERNIGHT AND THEN PICKING UP FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH TOWARD MORNING AS STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SUNDAY...POTENT SYSTEM WL IMPACT OUR CWA ON MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT. IN ADDITION...STILL WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
STORMS ACRS OUR EASTERN/SOUTHERN CWA ON MONDAY AFTN...AS PART OF
THIS AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL
GENERAL BE BTWN 1 AND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS FROM THE DACKS TO CPV TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT MTNS. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES...BUT COULD SEE SOME MINOR
POOR DRAINAGE URBAN FLOODING IN THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES ON
MONDAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT ACRS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...QUICKLY MOVING SE TWD THE OHIO VALLEY ATTM...WITH SOME
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALREADY NOTED UNDER THE 5H CIRCULATION. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND UPSTREAM ACTION TODAY...MAKES FOR A TRICKY
SFC LOW TRACK HEADING INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF A STRONG NW TO SE THERMAL BOUNDARY. AS VIGOROUS 5H VORT ROUNDS
MID/UPPER LVL TROF...SYSTEM WL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY 18Z
WEDS...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING FROM NEAR KBGM AT 12Z MONDAY TO
NORTHERN VT BY 00Z TUES. THIS TRACK PLACES OUR WESTERN CWA ON THE
COOL SIDE...WHILE PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON MONDAY AFTN. THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MID WAA LIFT/MOISTURE WL DEVELOP ACRS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AROUND 12Z MONDAY AND LIFT INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT 14Z...BEFORE BEING NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 16Z
MONDAY. THIS LIFT/MOISTURE WL RESULT IN A 2 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW OF
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. HOWEVER...AS SOME BREAKS
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AFTN...SFC INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 30 KNOTS. THINKING SCATTERED STORMS WL DEVELOP ACRS OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA...WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE....ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ON MONDAY WL BE
DRIVEN BY THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND NOT SO MUCH THE INSTABILITY. BOTH
THE GFS/NAM 850 TO 500MB RH PROGS SHOW A NICE WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
DEVELOPING ACRS OUR EASTERN CWA AT 18Z MONDAY...WHILE A BAND OF DEEP
RH ASSOCIATED WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM
THERMAL DRIVEN MID LVL TROWAL FEATURE WL HELP TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
MODERATE RAINFALL ACRS THE DACKS INTO THE CPV AND MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE
CLOSED 85H AND 7H CIRCULATIONS...AND SFC LOW...EXPECT BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION PRECIP TO LINGER OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
ON TUES MORNING. THINKING TOTAL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.25 AN 0.75"
SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 0.75 TO 1.75" EASTERN DACKS/CPV AND NORTHERN
VT....WITH AMOUNTS BTWN 0.50 AND 1.0" ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2.0" POSSIBLE DUE TO
CONVECTION AND TRRN. EXPECTING SOME SHARP RISES ON SMALLER
STREAMS/RIVERS...BUT GIVEN RECENT DRY SPELL NO MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES
ANTICIPATED ATTM. VERY INTERESTING TEMP PROFILE ON MONDAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE CPV/SLV AND LOW LEVEL CAA/CLOUDS...TEMPS WL
STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 50S DACKS TO L/M60S CPV/SLV AND MID 70S LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. THE MTNS OF VT WL HOLD IN THE U50S TO LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE NEK VALLEYS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL CLOSED CIRCULATION LIFTS INTO
EASTERN CANADA WITH CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACRS OUR CWA. BEST 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 12Z TUES...BUT GIVEN AMOUNT OF
ENERGY IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND SOME SFC HEATING ON TUES AFTN...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY
WL DECREASE BY TUES EVENING...WITH CHILLY NORTHWEST WINDS. TUES/TUES
NIGHT WL FEEL A BIT LIKE FALL WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
U50S/L60S MTNS TO NEAR 70F WARMER VALLEYS...ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS ONLY BTWN 6-8C. WINDS/CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL RH
WL KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT ON TUES NIGHT...THINKING
MAINLY 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH TROUGH
WEAKENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS.

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE TIME TO BE DRY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH
DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRONGEST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LARGELY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
TO BE AROUND 10-11C WED/THU THEN MODERATE TO 12-13C BY THE WEEKEND.
WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WED/THU AND AROUND 80 FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT MINS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...STILL LOOKING AT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...WHICH COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. BEST CHANCES FOR THESE
STORMS WILL BE AT KPBG...KBTV...KSLK...AND KMPV.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DECREASE SHARPLY AFTER 03Z AND VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP. COULD BE SOME FG/BR LATER TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF
CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS JUST
TO THE NORTH. BETWEEN 09-12Z RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT
INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER
POSSIBLE AT VERMONT SITES.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS PM. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 KTS
DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 272335
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
735 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK WILL TRACK INTO
VERMONT ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL. A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN VERMONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO START THE WORK WEEK...WITH SOME
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 651 PM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST TO JUST
INDICATE A BIT MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA
THROUGH ABOUT 02Z...WITH SOME OF THE STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL. OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
AREAL COVERAGE DECREASING OVERNIGHT AND THEN PICKING UP FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH TOWARD MORNING AS STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SUNDAY...POTENT SYSTEM WL IMPACT OUR CWA ON MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT. IN ADDITION...STILL WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
STORMS ACRS OUR EASTERN/SOUTHERN CWA ON MONDAY AFTN...AS PART OF
THIS AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL
GENERAL BE BTWN 1 AND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS FROM THE DACKS TO CPV TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT MTNS. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES...BUT COULD SEE SOME MINOR
POOR DRAINAGE URBAN FLOODING IN THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES ON
MONDAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT ACRS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...QUICKLY MOVING SE TWD THE OHIO VALLEY ATTM...WITH SOME
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALREADY NOTED UNDER THE 5H CIRCULATION. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND UPSTREAM ACTION TODAY...MAKES FOR A TRICKY
SFC LOW TRACK HEADING INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF A STRONG NW TO SE THERMAL BOUNDARY. AS VIGOROUS 5H VORT ROUNDS
MID/UPPER LVL TROF...SYSTEM WL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY 18Z
WEDS...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING FROM NEAR KBGM AT 12Z MONDAY TO
NORTHERN VT BY 00Z TUES. THIS TRACK PLACES OUR WESTERN CWA ON THE
COOL SIDE...WHILE PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON MONDAY AFTN. THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MID WAA LIFT/MOISTURE WL DEVELOP ACRS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AROUND 12Z MONDAY AND LIFT INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT 14Z...BEFORE BEING NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 16Z
MONDAY. THIS LIFT/MOISTURE WL RESULT IN A 2 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW OF
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. HOWEVER...AS SOME BREAKS
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AFTN...SFC INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 30 KNOTS. THINKING SCATTERED STORMS WL DEVELOP ACRS OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA...WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE....ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ON MONDAY WL BE
DRIVEN BY THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND NOT SO MUCH THE INSTABILITY. BOTH
THE GFS/NAM 850 TO 500MB RH PROGS SHOW A NICE WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
DEVELOPING ACRS OUR EASTERN CWA AT 18Z MONDAY...WHILE A BAND OF DEEP
RH ASSOCIATED WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM
THERMAL DRIVEN MID LVL TROWAL FEATURE WL HELP TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
MODERATE RAINFALL ACRS THE DACKS INTO THE CPV AND MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE
CLOSED 85H AND 7H CIRCULATIONS...AND SFC LOW...EXPECT BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION PRECIP TO LINGER OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
ON TUES MORNING. THINKING TOTAL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.25 AN 0.75"
SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 0.75 TO 1.75" EASTERN DACKS/CPV AND NORTHERN
VT....WITH AMOUNTS BTWN 0.50 AND 1.0" ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2.0" POSSIBLE DUE TO
CONVECTION AND TRRN. EXPECTING SOME SHARP RISES ON SMALLER
STREAMS/RIVERS...BUT GIVEN RECENT DRY SPELL NO MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES
ANTICIPATED ATTM. VERY INTERESTING TEMP PROFILE ON MONDAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE CPV/SLV AND LOW LEVEL CAA/CLOUDS...TEMPS WL
STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 50S DACKS TO L/M60S CPV/SLV AND MID 70S LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. THE MTNS OF VT WL HOLD IN THE U50S TO LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE NEK VALLEYS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL CLOSED CIRCULATION LIFTS INTO
EASTERN CANADA WITH CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACRS OUR CWA. BEST 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 12Z TUES...BUT GIVEN AMOUNT OF
ENERGY IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND SOME SFC HEATING ON TUES AFTN...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY
WL DECREASE BY TUES EVENING...WITH CHILLY NORTHWEST WINDS. TUES/TUES
NIGHT WL FEEL A BIT LIKE FALL WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
U50S/L60S MTNS TO NEAR 70F WARMER VALLEYS...ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS ONLY BTWN 6-8C. WINDS/CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL RH
WL KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT ON TUES NIGHT...THINKING
MAINLY 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH TROUGH
WEAKENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS.

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE TIME TO BE DRY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH
DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRONGEST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LARGELY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
TO BE AROUND 10-11C WED/THU THEN MODERATE TO 12-13C BY THE WEEKEND.
WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WED/THU AND AROUND 80 FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT MINS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...STILL LOOKING AT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...WHICH COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. BEST CHANCES FOR THESE
STORMS WILL BE AT KPBG...KBTV...KSLK...AND KMPV.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DECREASE SHARPLY AFTER 03Z AND VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP. COULD BE SOME FG/BR LATER TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF
CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS JUST
TO THE NORTH. BETWEEN 09-12Z RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT
INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER
POSSIBLE AT VERMONT SITES.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS PM. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 KTS
DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 272335
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
735 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK WILL TRACK INTO
VERMONT ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL. A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN VERMONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO START THE WORK WEEK...WITH SOME
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 651 PM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST TO JUST
INDICATE A BIT MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA
THROUGH ABOUT 02Z...WITH SOME OF THE STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL. OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
AREAL COVERAGE DECREASING OVERNIGHT AND THEN PICKING UP FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH TOWARD MORNING AS STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SUNDAY...POTENT SYSTEM WL IMPACT OUR CWA ON MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT. IN ADDITION...STILL WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
STORMS ACRS OUR EASTERN/SOUTHERN CWA ON MONDAY AFTN...AS PART OF
THIS AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL
GENERAL BE BTWN 1 AND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS FROM THE DACKS TO CPV TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT MTNS. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES...BUT COULD SEE SOME MINOR
POOR DRAINAGE URBAN FLOODING IN THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES ON
MONDAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT ACRS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...QUICKLY MOVING SE TWD THE OHIO VALLEY ATTM...WITH SOME
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALREADY NOTED UNDER THE 5H CIRCULATION. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND UPSTREAM ACTION TODAY...MAKES FOR A TRICKY
SFC LOW TRACK HEADING INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF A STRONG NW TO SE THERMAL BOUNDARY. AS VIGOROUS 5H VORT ROUNDS
MID/UPPER LVL TROF...SYSTEM WL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY 18Z
WEDS...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING FROM NEAR KBGM AT 12Z MONDAY TO
NORTHERN VT BY 00Z TUES. THIS TRACK PLACES OUR WESTERN CWA ON THE
COOL SIDE...WHILE PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON MONDAY AFTN. THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MID WAA LIFT/MOISTURE WL DEVELOP ACRS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AROUND 12Z MONDAY AND LIFT INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT 14Z...BEFORE BEING NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 16Z
MONDAY. THIS LIFT/MOISTURE WL RESULT IN A 2 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW OF
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. HOWEVER...AS SOME BREAKS
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AFTN...SFC INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 30 KNOTS. THINKING SCATTERED STORMS WL DEVELOP ACRS OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA...WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE....ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ON MONDAY WL BE
DRIVEN BY THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND NOT SO MUCH THE INSTABILITY. BOTH
THE GFS/NAM 850 TO 500MB RH PROGS SHOW A NICE WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
DEVELOPING ACRS OUR EASTERN CWA AT 18Z MONDAY...WHILE A BAND OF DEEP
RH ASSOCIATED WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM
THERMAL DRIVEN MID LVL TROWAL FEATURE WL HELP TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
MODERATE RAINFALL ACRS THE DACKS INTO THE CPV AND MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE
CLOSED 85H AND 7H CIRCULATIONS...AND SFC LOW...EXPECT BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION PRECIP TO LINGER OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
ON TUES MORNING. THINKING TOTAL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.25 AN 0.75"
SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 0.75 TO 1.75" EASTERN DACKS/CPV AND NORTHERN
VT....WITH AMOUNTS BTWN 0.50 AND 1.0" ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2.0" POSSIBLE DUE TO
CONVECTION AND TRRN. EXPECTING SOME SHARP RISES ON SMALLER
STREAMS/RIVERS...BUT GIVEN RECENT DRY SPELL NO MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES
ANTICIPATED ATTM. VERY INTERESTING TEMP PROFILE ON MONDAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE CPV/SLV AND LOW LEVEL CAA/CLOUDS...TEMPS WL
STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 50S DACKS TO L/M60S CPV/SLV AND MID 70S LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. THE MTNS OF VT WL HOLD IN THE U50S TO LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE NEK VALLEYS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL CLOSED CIRCULATION LIFTS INTO
EASTERN CANADA WITH CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACRS OUR CWA. BEST 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 12Z TUES...BUT GIVEN AMOUNT OF
ENERGY IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND SOME SFC HEATING ON TUES AFTN...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY
WL DECREASE BY TUES EVENING...WITH CHILLY NORTHWEST WINDS. TUES/TUES
NIGHT WL FEEL A BIT LIKE FALL WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
U50S/L60S MTNS TO NEAR 70F WARMER VALLEYS...ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS ONLY BTWN 6-8C. WINDS/CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL RH
WL KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT ON TUES NIGHT...THINKING
MAINLY 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH TROUGH
WEAKENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS.

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE TIME TO BE DRY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH
DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRONGEST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LARGELY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
TO BE AROUND 10-11C WED/THU THEN MODERATE TO 12-13C BY THE WEEKEND.
WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WED/THU AND AROUND 80 FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT MINS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...STILL LOOKING AT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...WHICH COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. BEST CHANCES FOR THESE
STORMS WILL BE AT KPBG...KBTV...KSLK...AND KMPV.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DECREASE SHARPLY AFTER 03Z AND VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP. COULD BE SOME FG/BR LATER TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF
CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS JUST
TO THE NORTH. BETWEEN 09-12Z RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT
INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER
POSSIBLE AT VERMONT SITES.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS PM. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 KTS
DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 272335
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
735 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK WILL TRACK INTO
VERMONT ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL. A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN VERMONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO START THE WORK WEEK...WITH SOME
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 651 PM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST TO JUST
INDICATE A BIT MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA
THROUGH ABOUT 02Z...WITH SOME OF THE STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL. OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
AREAL COVERAGE DECREASING OVERNIGHT AND THEN PICKING UP FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH TOWARD MORNING AS STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SUNDAY...POTENT SYSTEM WL IMPACT OUR CWA ON MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT. IN ADDITION...STILL WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
STORMS ACRS OUR EASTERN/SOUTHERN CWA ON MONDAY AFTN...AS PART OF
THIS AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL
GENERAL BE BTWN 1 AND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS FROM THE DACKS TO CPV TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT MTNS. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES...BUT COULD SEE SOME MINOR
POOR DRAINAGE URBAN FLOODING IN THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES ON
MONDAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT ACRS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...QUICKLY MOVING SE TWD THE OHIO VALLEY ATTM...WITH SOME
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALREADY NOTED UNDER THE 5H CIRCULATION. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND UPSTREAM ACTION TODAY...MAKES FOR A TRICKY
SFC LOW TRACK HEADING INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF A STRONG NW TO SE THERMAL BOUNDARY. AS VIGOROUS 5H VORT ROUNDS
MID/UPPER LVL TROF...SYSTEM WL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY 18Z
WEDS...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING FROM NEAR KBGM AT 12Z MONDAY TO
NORTHERN VT BY 00Z TUES. THIS TRACK PLACES OUR WESTERN CWA ON THE
COOL SIDE...WHILE PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON MONDAY AFTN. THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MID WAA LIFT/MOISTURE WL DEVELOP ACRS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AROUND 12Z MONDAY AND LIFT INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT 14Z...BEFORE BEING NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 16Z
MONDAY. THIS LIFT/MOISTURE WL RESULT IN A 2 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW OF
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. HOWEVER...AS SOME BREAKS
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AFTN...SFC INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 30 KNOTS. THINKING SCATTERED STORMS WL DEVELOP ACRS OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA...WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE....ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ON MONDAY WL BE
DRIVEN BY THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND NOT SO MUCH THE INSTABILITY. BOTH
THE GFS/NAM 850 TO 500MB RH PROGS SHOW A NICE WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
DEVELOPING ACRS OUR EASTERN CWA AT 18Z MONDAY...WHILE A BAND OF DEEP
RH ASSOCIATED WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM
THERMAL DRIVEN MID LVL TROWAL FEATURE WL HELP TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
MODERATE RAINFALL ACRS THE DACKS INTO THE CPV AND MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE
CLOSED 85H AND 7H CIRCULATIONS...AND SFC LOW...EXPECT BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION PRECIP TO LINGER OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
ON TUES MORNING. THINKING TOTAL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.25 AN 0.75"
SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 0.75 TO 1.75" EASTERN DACKS/CPV AND NORTHERN
VT....WITH AMOUNTS BTWN 0.50 AND 1.0" ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2.0" POSSIBLE DUE TO
CONVECTION AND TRRN. EXPECTING SOME SHARP RISES ON SMALLER
STREAMS/RIVERS...BUT GIVEN RECENT DRY SPELL NO MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES
ANTICIPATED ATTM. VERY INTERESTING TEMP PROFILE ON MONDAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE CPV/SLV AND LOW LEVEL CAA/CLOUDS...TEMPS WL
STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 50S DACKS TO L/M60S CPV/SLV AND MID 70S LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. THE MTNS OF VT WL HOLD IN THE U50S TO LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE NEK VALLEYS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL CLOSED CIRCULATION LIFTS INTO
EASTERN CANADA WITH CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACRS OUR CWA. BEST 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 12Z TUES...BUT GIVEN AMOUNT OF
ENERGY IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND SOME SFC HEATING ON TUES AFTN...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY
WL DECREASE BY TUES EVENING...WITH CHILLY NORTHWEST WINDS. TUES/TUES
NIGHT WL FEEL A BIT LIKE FALL WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
U50S/L60S MTNS TO NEAR 70F WARMER VALLEYS...ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS ONLY BTWN 6-8C. WINDS/CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL RH
WL KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT ON TUES NIGHT...THINKING
MAINLY 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH TROUGH
WEAKENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS.

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE TIME TO BE DRY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH
DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRONGEST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LARGELY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
TO BE AROUND 10-11C WED/THU THEN MODERATE TO 12-13C BY THE WEEKEND.
WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WED/THU AND AROUND 80 FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT MINS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...STILL LOOKING AT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...WHICH COULD CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. BEST CHANCES FOR THESE
STORMS WILL BE AT KPBG...KBTV...KSLK...AND KMPV.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DECREASE SHARPLY AFTER 03Z AND VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP. COULD BE SOME FG/BR LATER TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF
CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS JUST
TO THE NORTH. BETWEEN 09-12Z RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT
INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
LOWER TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER
POSSIBLE AT VERMONT SITES.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS PM. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 KTS
DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUE - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS







000
FXUS61 KALY 272257
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
657 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED CONVECTION INTO CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS NOW. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ON RADAR FROM SCHOHARIE THROUGH GREENE
AND COLUMBIA COUNTIES FOR ANY NEW CONVECTION. DIURNAL COOLING
OCCURRING SO CHANCES OF ANY NEW CONVECTION DECREASING. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...IF ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS DO
DEVLOP...COULD BE SEVERE. THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR MARGINAL SEVERE
TRANSITIONING TO VERY HEAVY RAIN. WORDING SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST. QUITE A BIT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS
OCCURRED UPSTREAM SO WE HAVE TO CAREFULLY WATCH THE MODE OF
CONVECTION AS IT TRACKS INTO OUR REGION BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
SUNRISE.

QUITE A SPIN TO THE UPPER IMPULSE IN THE GREAT LAKES AND QUITE A
BIT OF CONVECTION EXPANDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN
VALLEY. THERE HAS BEEN A DECENT CONSENSUS FROM GUIDANCE IN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS FOR UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL AND
JET FORCING TO SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION TRACKING OUT OF THE NORTH
MID ATLANTIC...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...NORTHWEST CT AND THE BERKSHIRES...PERHAPS SCRAPING THE
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SOUTHERN VT.

NIGHTTIME CONVECTION OFTEN WEAKER THAN DAYTIME CONVECTION BUT THE
PREDICTED INSTABILITY...UPPER AND LOW LEVEL JET STRUCTURE AND
UPPER DYNAMICS WITH A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW TRACKING
THROUGH THE REGION...EARLY TO MID MORNING THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
COULD FLIRT WITH SEVERE LEVELS. WILL HAVE TO CHECK LIFTED
CONDENSATION LEVELS AS STORMS APPROACH LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS ARE WORTH MONITORING WITH THE WELL
DEFINED SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL FEATURE
SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL THE END OF
WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL ATLANTIC BUILDS
WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. DUE TO SPARSE
COVERAGE...WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH IN THE TAFS.

HOWEVER..A MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND RATHER INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. WILL MENTION PREVAILING RAIN AND MVFR WITH PROB30 FOR
TSRA WITH IFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THIS IS LESS CERTAIN. THE AREA THAT COULD
SEE GUSTY TSRA WOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH OF KALB...INCLUDING THE
KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. WILL REFINE FORECAST FURTHER WITH SUBSEQUENT
SET OF TAFS.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT...BECOMING
VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KALY 272257
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
657 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED CONVECTION INTO CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS NOW. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ON RADAR FROM SCHOHARIE THROUGH GREENE
AND COLUMBIA COUNTIES FOR ANY NEW CONVECTION. DIURNAL COOLING
OCCURRING SO CHANCES OF ANY NEW CONVECTION DECREASING. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...IF ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS DO
DEVLOP...COULD BE SEVERE. THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR MARGINAL SEVERE
TRANSITIONING TO VERY HEAVY RAIN. WORDING SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST. QUITE A BIT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS
OCCURRED UPSTREAM SO WE HAVE TO CAREFULLY WATCH THE MODE OF
CONVECTION AS IT TRACKS INTO OUR REGION BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
SUNRISE.

QUITE A SPIN TO THE UPPER IMPULSE IN THE GREAT LAKES AND QUITE A
BIT OF CONVECTION EXPANDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN
VALLEY. THERE HAS BEEN A DECENT CONSENSUS FROM GUIDANCE IN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS FOR UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL AND
JET FORCING TO SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION TRACKING OUT OF THE NORTH
MID ATLANTIC...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...NORTHWEST CT AND THE BERKSHIRES...PERHAPS SCRAPING THE
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SOUTHERN VT.

NIGHTTIME CONVECTION OFTEN WEAKER THAN DAYTIME CONVECTION BUT THE
PREDICTED INSTABILITY...UPPER AND LOW LEVEL JET STRUCTURE AND
UPPER DYNAMICS WITH A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW TRACKING
THROUGH THE REGION...EARLY TO MID MORNING THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
COULD FLIRT WITH SEVERE LEVELS. WILL HAVE TO CHECK LIFTED
CONDENSATION LEVELS AS STORMS APPROACH LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS ARE WORTH MONITORING WITH THE WELL
DEFINED SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL FEATURE
SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL THE END OF
WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL ATLANTIC BUILDS
WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. DUE TO SPARSE
COVERAGE...WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH IN THE TAFS.

HOWEVER..A MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND RATHER INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. WILL MENTION PREVAILING RAIN AND MVFR WITH PROB30 FOR
TSRA WITH IFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THIS IS LESS CERTAIN. THE AREA THAT COULD
SEE GUSTY TSRA WOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH OF KALB...INCLUDING THE
KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. WILL REFINE FORECAST FURTHER WITH SUBSEQUENT
SET OF TAFS.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT...BECOMING
VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 272251
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
651 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK WILL TRACK INTO
VERMONT ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL. A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN VERMONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO START THE WORK WEEK...WITH SOME
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 651 PM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST TO JUST
INDICATE A BIT MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA
THROUGH ABOUT 02Z...WITH SOME OF THE STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL. OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
AREAL COVERAGE DECREASING OVERNIGHT AND THEN PICKING UP FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH TOWARD MORNING AS STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SUNDAY...POTENT SYSTEM WL IMPACT OUR CWA ON MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT. IN ADDITION...STILL WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
STORMS ACRS OUR EASTERN/SOUTHERN CWA ON MONDAY AFTN...AS PART OF
THIS AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL
GENERAL BE BTWN 1 AND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS FROM THE DACKS TO CPV TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT MTNS. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES...BUT COULD SEE SOME MINOR
POOR DRAINAGE URBAN FLOODING IN THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES ON
MONDAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT ACRS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...QUICKLY MOVING SE TWD THE OHIO VALLEY ATTM...WITH SOME
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALREADY NOTED UNDER THE 5H CIRCULATION. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND UPSTREAM ACTION TODAY...MAKES FOR A TRICKY
SFC LOW TRACK HEADING INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF A STRONG NW TO SE THERMAL BOUNDARY. AS VIGOROUS 5H VORT ROUNDS
MID/UPPER LVL TROF...SYSTEM WL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY 18Z
WEDS...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING FROM NEAR KBGM AT 12Z MONDAY TO
NORTHERN VT BY 00Z TUES. THIS TRACK PLACES OUR WESTERN CWA ON THE
COOL SIDE...WHILE PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON MONDAY AFTN. THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MID WAA LIFT/MOISTURE WL DEVELOP ACRS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AROUND 12Z MONDAY AND LIFT INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT 14Z...BEFORE BEING NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 16Z
MONDAY. THIS LIFT/MOISTURE WL RESULT IN A 2 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW OF
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. HOWEVER...AS SOME BREAKS
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AFTN...SFC INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 30 KNOTS. THINKING SCATTERED STORMS WL DEVELOP ACRS OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA...WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE....ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ON MONDAY WL BE
DRIVEN BY THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND NOT SO MUCH THE INSTABILITY. BOTH
THE GFS/NAM 850 TO 500MB RH PROGS SHOW A NICE WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
DEVELOPING ACRS OUR EASTERN CWA AT 18Z MONDAY...WHILE A BAND OF DEEP
RH ASSOCIATED WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM
THERMAL DRIVEN MID LVL TROWAL FEATURE WL HELP TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
MODERATE RAINFALL ACRS THE DACKS INTO THE CPV AND MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE
CLOSED 85H AND 7H CIRCULATIONS...AND SFC LOW...EXPECT BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION PRECIP TO LINGER OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
ON TUES MORNING. THINKING TOTAL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.25 AN 0.75"
SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 0.75 TO 1.75" EASTERN DACKS/CPV AND NORTHERN
VT....WITH AMOUNTS BTWN 0.50 AND 1.0" ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2.0" POSSIBLE DUE TO
CONVECTION AND TRRN. EXPECTING SOME SHARP RISES ON SMALLER
STREAMS/RIVERS...BUT GIVEN RECENT DRY SPELL NO MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES
ANTICIPATED ATTM. VERY INTERESTING TEMP PROFILE ON MONDAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE CPV/SLV AND LOW LEVEL CAA/CLOUDS...TEMPS WL
STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 50S DACKS TO L/M60S CPV/SLV AND MID 70S LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. THE MTNS OF VT WL HOLD IN THE U50S TO LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE NEK VALLEYS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL CLOSED CIRCULATION LIFTS INTO
EASTERN CANADA WITH CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACRS OUR CWA. BEST 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 12Z TUES...BUT GIVEN AMOUNT OF
ENERGY IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND SOME SFC HEATING ON TUES AFTN...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY
WL DECREASE BY TUES EVENING...WITH CHILLY NORTHWEST WINDS. TUES/TUES
NIGHT WL FEEL A BIT LIKE FALL WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
U50S/L60S MTNS TO NEAR 70F WARMER VALLEYS...ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS ONLY BTWN 6-8C. WINDS/CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL RH
WL KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT ON TUES NIGHT...THINKING
MAINLY 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH TROUGH
WEAKENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS.

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE TIME TO BE DRY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH
DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRONGEST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LARGELY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
TO BE AROUND 10-11C WED/THU THEN MODERATE TO 12-13C BY THE WEEKEND.
WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WED/THU AND AROUND 80 FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT MINS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT IN
CANADA...BUT PROBABILITIES ONLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. HAVE INCLUDED
MENTION OF VCTS AT NORTHERN NY TAF SITES WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DECREASE THIS EVENING UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.
COULD BE SOME FG/BR LATER TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF CLEARING AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS JUST TO THE NORTH.
BETWEEN 09-12Z RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT INTO
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER
TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER POSSIBLE AT
VERMONT SITES.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS PM. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 KTS
DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 272251
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
651 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK WILL TRACK INTO
VERMONT ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL. A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN VERMONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO START THE WORK WEEK...WITH SOME
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 651 PM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST TO JUST
INDICATE A BIT MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA
THROUGH ABOUT 02Z...WITH SOME OF THE STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL. OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
AREAL COVERAGE DECREASING OVERNIGHT AND THEN PICKING UP FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH TOWARD MORNING AS STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SUNDAY...POTENT SYSTEM WL IMPACT OUR CWA ON MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT. IN ADDITION...STILL WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
STORMS ACRS OUR EASTERN/SOUTHERN CWA ON MONDAY AFTN...AS PART OF
THIS AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL
GENERAL BE BTWN 1 AND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS FROM THE DACKS TO CPV TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT MTNS. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES...BUT COULD SEE SOME MINOR
POOR DRAINAGE URBAN FLOODING IN THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES ON
MONDAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT ACRS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...QUICKLY MOVING SE TWD THE OHIO VALLEY ATTM...WITH SOME
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALREADY NOTED UNDER THE 5H CIRCULATION. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND UPSTREAM ACTION TODAY...MAKES FOR A TRICKY
SFC LOW TRACK HEADING INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF A STRONG NW TO SE THERMAL BOUNDARY. AS VIGOROUS 5H VORT ROUNDS
MID/UPPER LVL TROF...SYSTEM WL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY 18Z
WEDS...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING FROM NEAR KBGM AT 12Z MONDAY TO
NORTHERN VT BY 00Z TUES. THIS TRACK PLACES OUR WESTERN CWA ON THE
COOL SIDE...WHILE PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON MONDAY AFTN. THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MID WAA LIFT/MOISTURE WL DEVELOP ACRS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AROUND 12Z MONDAY AND LIFT INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT 14Z...BEFORE BEING NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 16Z
MONDAY. THIS LIFT/MOISTURE WL RESULT IN A 2 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW OF
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. HOWEVER...AS SOME BREAKS
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AFTN...SFC INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 30 KNOTS. THINKING SCATTERED STORMS WL DEVELOP ACRS OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA...WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE....ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ON MONDAY WL BE
DRIVEN BY THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND NOT SO MUCH THE INSTABILITY. BOTH
THE GFS/NAM 850 TO 500MB RH PROGS SHOW A NICE WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
DEVELOPING ACRS OUR EASTERN CWA AT 18Z MONDAY...WHILE A BAND OF DEEP
RH ASSOCIATED WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM
THERMAL DRIVEN MID LVL TROWAL FEATURE WL HELP TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
MODERATE RAINFALL ACRS THE DACKS INTO THE CPV AND MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE
CLOSED 85H AND 7H CIRCULATIONS...AND SFC LOW...EXPECT BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION PRECIP TO LINGER OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
ON TUES MORNING. THINKING TOTAL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.25 AN 0.75"
SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 0.75 TO 1.75" EASTERN DACKS/CPV AND NORTHERN
VT....WITH AMOUNTS BTWN 0.50 AND 1.0" ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2.0" POSSIBLE DUE TO
CONVECTION AND TRRN. EXPECTING SOME SHARP RISES ON SMALLER
STREAMS/RIVERS...BUT GIVEN RECENT DRY SPELL NO MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES
ANTICIPATED ATTM. VERY INTERESTING TEMP PROFILE ON MONDAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE CPV/SLV AND LOW LEVEL CAA/CLOUDS...TEMPS WL
STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 50S DACKS TO L/M60S CPV/SLV AND MID 70S LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. THE MTNS OF VT WL HOLD IN THE U50S TO LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE NEK VALLEYS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL CLOSED CIRCULATION LIFTS INTO
EASTERN CANADA WITH CYCLONIC NW FLOW ACRS OUR CWA. BEST 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 12Z TUES...BUT GIVEN AMOUNT OF
ENERGY IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND SOME SFC HEATING ON TUES AFTN...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY
WL DECREASE BY TUES EVENING...WITH CHILLY NORTHWEST WINDS. TUES/TUES
NIGHT WL FEEL A BIT LIKE FALL WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
U50S/L60S MTNS TO NEAR 70F WARMER VALLEYS...ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS ONLY BTWN 6-8C. WINDS/CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL RH
WL KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT ON TUES NIGHT...THINKING
MAINLY 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH TROUGH
WEAKENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS.

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE TIME TO BE DRY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH
DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRONGEST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LARGELY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
TO BE AROUND 10-11C WED/THU THEN MODERATE TO 12-13C BY THE WEEKEND.
WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WED/THU AND AROUND 80 FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT MINS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT IN
CANADA...BUT PROBABILITIES ONLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. HAVE INCLUDED
MENTION OF VCTS AT NORTHERN NY TAF SITES WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DECREASE THIS EVENING UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.
COULD BE SOME FG/BR LATER TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF CLEARING AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS JUST TO THE NORTH.
BETWEEN 09-12Z RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT INTO
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER
TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER POSSIBLE AT
VERMONT SITES.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS PM. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 KTS
DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS








000
FXUS61 KALY 272015
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED CONVECTION EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WILL HEAD INTO
THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ON RADAR FROM NORTHERN SCHOHARIE THROUGH ALBANY COUNTIES
FOR ANY NEW CONVECTION. THE RELATIVELY CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE REST
OF THE REGION SUGGESTS SOME CAPPING DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT...SO
SUGGESTING JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE CURRENT STORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THIS EVENING COULD BE SEVERE...THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR MARGINAL SEVERE
TRANSITIONING TO VERY HEAVY RAIN. WORDING SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST.

HOWEVER...QUITE A SPIN TO THE UPPER IMPULSE IN THE GREAT LAKES AND
QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION EXPANDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OH/TN VALLEY. THERE HAS BEEN A DECENT CONSENSUS FROM GUIDANCE IN
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS FOR UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL
AND JET FORCING TO SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION TRACKING OUT OF THE
NORTH MID ATLANTIC...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...NORTHWEST CT AND THE BERKSHIRES...PERHAPS SCRAPING THE
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SOUTHERN VT.

NIGHTTIME CONVECTION OFTEN WEAKER THAN DAYTIME CONVECTION BUT THE
PREDICTED INSTABILITY...UPPER AND LOW LEVEL JET STRUCTURE AND
UPPER DYNAMICS WITH A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW TRACKING
THROUGH THE REGION...EARLY TO MID MORNING THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
COULD FLIRT WITH SEVERE LEVELS. WILL HAVE TO CHECK LIFTED
CONDENSATION LEVELS AS STORMS APPROACH LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS ARE WORTH MONITORING WITH THE WELL
DEFINED SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL FEATURE
SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL THE END OF
WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL ATLANTIC BUILDS
WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. DUE TO SPARSE
COVERAGE...WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH IN THE TAFS.

HOWEVER..A MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND RATHER INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. WILL MENTION PREVAILING RAIN AND MVFR WITH PROB30 FOR
TSRA WITH IFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THIS IS LESS CERTAIN. THE AREA THAT COULD
SEE GUSTY TSRA WOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH OF KALB...INCLUDING THE
KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. WILL REFINE FORECAST FURTHER WITH SUBSEQUENT
SET OF TAFS.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT...BECOMING
VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







000
FXUS61 KALY 272015
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED CONVECTION EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WILL HEAD INTO
THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ON RADAR FROM NORTHERN SCHOHARIE THROUGH ALBANY COUNTIES
FOR ANY NEW CONVECTION. THE RELATIVELY CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE REST
OF THE REGION SUGGESTS SOME CAPPING DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT...SO
SUGGESTING JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE CURRENT STORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THIS EVENING COULD BE SEVERE...THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR MARGINAL SEVERE
TRANSITIONING TO VERY HEAVY RAIN. WORDING SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST.

HOWEVER...QUITE A SPIN TO THE UPPER IMPULSE IN THE GREAT LAKES AND
QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION EXPANDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OH/TN VALLEY. THERE HAS BEEN A DECENT CONSENSUS FROM GUIDANCE IN
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS FOR UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL
AND JET FORCING TO SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION TRACKING OUT OF THE
NORTH MID ATLANTIC...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...NORTHWEST CT AND THE BERKSHIRES...PERHAPS SCRAPING THE
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SOUTHERN VT.

NIGHTTIME CONVECTION OFTEN WEAKER THAN DAYTIME CONVECTION BUT THE
PREDICTED INSTABILITY...UPPER AND LOW LEVEL JET STRUCTURE AND
UPPER DYNAMICS WITH A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW TRACKING
THROUGH THE REGION...EARLY TO MID MORNING THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
COULD FLIRT WITH SEVERE LEVELS. WILL HAVE TO CHECK LIFTED
CONDENSATION LEVELS AS STORMS APPROACH LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS ARE WORTH MONITORING WITH THE WELL
DEFINED SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL FEATURE
SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL THE END OF
WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL ATLANTIC BUILDS
WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. DUE TO SPARSE
COVERAGE...WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH IN THE TAFS.

HOWEVER..A MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND RATHER INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. WILL MENTION PREVAILING RAIN AND MVFR WITH PROB30 FOR
TSRA WITH IFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THIS IS LESS CERTAIN. THE AREA THAT COULD
SEE GUSTY TSRA WOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH OF KALB...INCLUDING THE
KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. WILL REFINE FORECAST FURTHER WITH SUBSEQUENT
SET OF TAFS.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT...BECOMING
VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 271942
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
342 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK WILL TRACK INTO
VERMONT ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL. A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN VERMONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO START THE WORK WEEK...WITH SOME
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SUNDAY...WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE WESTERN
FLW ALOFT WL QUICKLY EXIT OUR NORTHERN/CENTRAL CWA BY 03Z...AND
ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS/STORMS WL BE DISSIPATING. EXPECTING PULSE
LIKE STORMS WITH LIMITED ORGANIZATION TO CONT THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING. LAPS SHOWS SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1500 AND 1800 J/KG. THIS
WL PRODUCE SCATTERED ACTIVITY WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...ISOLATED
SMALL HAIL...AND VERY LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS. WL MENTION CHC POPS
FOR NORTHERN VT THRU 02Z THIS EVENING...THEN TAPER TO SCHC INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HRS. STILL CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR
TWO...PER POSITION OF SFC BOUNDARY ACRS OUR CENTRAL ZNS...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED VORTS. MEANWHILE...TWD 12Z MONDAY MOISTURE AND ENERGY
FROM NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM WL BE APPROACHING OUR SOUTHERN CWA. WL
INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY AFT 09Z MONDAY...TO SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY
FASTER ARRIVAL OF THIS PRECIP. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE OVERNIGHT
LOWS WITH CLOUDS AND HIGHER SFC DWPTS...THINKING MAINLY 50S MTNS
TO 60S WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SUNDAY...POTENT SYSTEM WL IMPACT OUR CWA ON MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT. IN ADDITION...STILL WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
STORMS ACRS OUR EASTERN/SOUTHERN CWA ON MONDAY AFTN...AS PART OF
THIS AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL
GENERAL BE BTWN 1 AND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS FROM THE DACKS TO CPV TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT MTNS. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES...BUT COULD SEE SOME MINOR
POOR DRAINAGE URBAN FLOODING IN THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES ON
MONDAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT ACRS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...QUICKLY MOVING SE TWD THE OHIO VALLEY ATTM...WITH SOME
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALREADY NOTED UNDER THE 5H CIRCULATION. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND UPSTREAM ACTION TODAY...MAKES FOR A TRICKY
SFC LOW TRACK HEADING INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF A STRONG NW TO SE THERMAL BOUNDARY. AS VIGOROUS 5H VORT ROUNDS
MID/UPPER LVL TROF...SYSTEM WL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY 18Z
WEDS...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING FROM NEAR KBGM AT 12Z MONDAY TO
NORTHERN VT BY 00Z TUES. THIS TRACK PLACES OUR WESTERN CWA ON THE
COOL SIDE...WHILE PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON MONDAY AFTN. THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MID WAA LIFT/MOISTURE WL DEVELOP ACRS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AROUND 12Z MONDAY AND LIFT INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT 14Z...BEFORE BEING NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 16Z
MONDAY. THIS LIFT/MOISTURE WL RESULT IN A 2 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW OF
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. HOWEVER...AS SOME BREAKS
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AFTN...SFC INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 30 KNOTS. THINKING SCATTERED STORMS WL DEVELOP ACRS OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA...WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE....ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ON MONDAY WL BE
DRIVEN BY THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND NOT SO MUCH THE INSTABILITY. BOTH
THE GFS/NAM 850 TO 500MB RH PROGS SHOW A NICE WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
DEVELOPING ACRS OUR EASTERN CWA AT 18Z MONDAY...WHILE A BAND OF DEEP
RH ASSOCIATED WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST LVLL UPSLOPE FLW AND ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM
THERMAL DRIVEN MID LVL TROWAL FEATURE WL HELP TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
MODERATE RAINFALL ACRS THE DACKS INTO THE CPV AND MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE
CLOSED 85H AND 7H CIRCULATIONS...AND SFC LOW...EXPECT BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION PRECIP TO LINGER OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
ON TUES MORNING. THINKING TOTAL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.25 AN 0.75"
SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 0.75 TO 1.75" EASTERN DACKS/CPV AND NORTHERN
VT....WITH AMOUNTS BTWN 0.50 AND 1.0" ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2.0" POSSIBLE DUE TO
CONVECTION AND TRRN. EXPECTING SOME SHARP RISES ON SMALLER
STREAMS/RIVERS...BUT GIVEN RECENT DRY SPELL NO MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES
ANTICIPATED ATTM. VERY INTERESTING TEMP PROFILE ON MONDAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE CPV/SLV AND LVLL CAA/CLOUDS...TEMPS WL
STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 50S DACKS TO L/M60S CPV/SLV AND MID 70S LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. THE MTNS OF VT WL HOLD IN THE U50S TO LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE NEK VALLEYS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL CLOSED CIRCULATION LIFTS INTO
EASTERN CANADA WITH CYCLONIC NW FLW ACRS OUR CWA. BEST 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 12Z TUES...BUT GIVEN AMOUNT OF
ENERGY IN THE FLW ALOFT AND SOME SFC HEATING ON TUES AFTN...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY
WL DECREASE BY TUES EVENING...WITH CHILLY NORTHWEST WINDS. TUES/TUES
NIGHT WL FEEL A BIT LIKE FALL WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
U50S/L60S MTNS TO NEAR 70F WARMER VALLEYS...ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS ONLY BTWN 6-8C. WINDS/CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL RH
WL KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT ON TUES NIGHT...THINKING
MAINLY 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH TROUGH
WEAKENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS.

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE TIME TO BE DRY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH
DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRONGEST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LARGELY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
TO BE AROUND 10-11C WED/THU THEN MODERATE TO 12-13C BY THE WEEKEND.
WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WED/THU AND AROUND 80 FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT MINS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT IN
CANADA...BUT PROBABILITIES ONLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. HAVE INCLUDED
MENTION OF VCTS AT NORTHERN NY TAF SITES WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DECREASE THIS EVENING UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.
COULD BE SOME FG/BR LATER TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF CLEARING AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS JUST TO THE NORTH.
BETWEEN 09-12Z RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT INTO
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER
TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER POSSIBLE AT
VERMONT SITES.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS PM. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 KTS
DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 271942
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
342 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK WILL TRACK INTO
VERMONT ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL. A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN VERMONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO START THE WORK WEEK...WITH SOME
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SUNDAY...WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE WESTERN
FLW ALOFT WL QUICKLY EXIT OUR NORTHERN/CENTRAL CWA BY 03Z...AND
ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS/STORMS WL BE DISSIPATING. EXPECTING PULSE
LIKE STORMS WITH LIMITED ORGANIZATION TO CONT THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING. LAPS SHOWS SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1500 AND 1800 J/KG. THIS
WL PRODUCE SCATTERED ACTIVITY WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...ISOLATED
SMALL HAIL...AND VERY LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS. WL MENTION CHC POPS
FOR NORTHERN VT THRU 02Z THIS EVENING...THEN TAPER TO SCHC INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HRS. STILL CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR
TWO...PER POSITION OF SFC BOUNDARY ACRS OUR CENTRAL ZNS...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED VORTS. MEANWHILE...TWD 12Z MONDAY MOISTURE AND ENERGY
FROM NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM WL BE APPROACHING OUR SOUTHERN CWA. WL
INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY AFT 09Z MONDAY...TO SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY
FASTER ARRIVAL OF THIS PRECIP. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE OVERNIGHT
LOWS WITH CLOUDS AND HIGHER SFC DWPTS...THINKING MAINLY 50S MTNS
TO 60S WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SUNDAY...POTENT SYSTEM WL IMPACT OUR CWA ON MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT. IN ADDITION...STILL WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
STORMS ACRS OUR EASTERN/SOUTHERN CWA ON MONDAY AFTN...AS PART OF
THIS AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL
GENERAL BE BTWN 1 AND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS FROM THE DACKS TO CPV TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT MTNS. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES...BUT COULD SEE SOME MINOR
POOR DRAINAGE URBAN FLOODING IN THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES ON
MONDAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT ACRS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...QUICKLY MOVING SE TWD THE OHIO VALLEY ATTM...WITH SOME
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALREADY NOTED UNDER THE 5H CIRCULATION. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND UPSTREAM ACTION TODAY...MAKES FOR A TRICKY
SFC LOW TRACK HEADING INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF A STRONG NW TO SE THERMAL BOUNDARY. AS VIGOROUS 5H VORT ROUNDS
MID/UPPER LVL TROF...SYSTEM WL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY 18Z
WEDS...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING FROM NEAR KBGM AT 12Z MONDAY TO
NORTHERN VT BY 00Z TUES. THIS TRACK PLACES OUR WESTERN CWA ON THE
COOL SIDE...WHILE PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON MONDAY AFTN. THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MID WAA LIFT/MOISTURE WL DEVELOP ACRS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AROUND 12Z MONDAY AND LIFT INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT 14Z...BEFORE BEING NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 16Z
MONDAY. THIS LIFT/MOISTURE WL RESULT IN A 2 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW OF
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. HOWEVER...AS SOME BREAKS
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AFTN...SFC INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 30 KNOTS. THINKING SCATTERED STORMS WL DEVELOP ACRS OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA...WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE....ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ON MONDAY WL BE
DRIVEN BY THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND NOT SO MUCH THE INSTABILITY. BOTH
THE GFS/NAM 850 TO 500MB RH PROGS SHOW A NICE WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
DEVELOPING ACRS OUR EASTERN CWA AT 18Z MONDAY...WHILE A BAND OF DEEP
RH ASSOCIATED WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST LVLL UPSLOPE FLW AND ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM
THERMAL DRIVEN MID LVL TROWAL FEATURE WL HELP TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
MODERATE RAINFALL ACRS THE DACKS INTO THE CPV AND MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE
CLOSED 85H AND 7H CIRCULATIONS...AND SFC LOW...EXPECT BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION PRECIP TO LINGER OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
ON TUES MORNING. THINKING TOTAL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.25 AN 0.75"
SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 0.75 TO 1.75" EASTERN DACKS/CPV AND NORTHERN
VT....WITH AMOUNTS BTWN 0.50 AND 1.0" ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2.0" POSSIBLE DUE TO
CONVECTION AND TRRN. EXPECTING SOME SHARP RISES ON SMALLER
STREAMS/RIVERS...BUT GIVEN RECENT DRY SPELL NO MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES
ANTICIPATED ATTM. VERY INTERESTING TEMP PROFILE ON MONDAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE CPV/SLV AND LVLL CAA/CLOUDS...TEMPS WL
STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 50S DACKS TO L/M60S CPV/SLV AND MID 70S LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. THE MTNS OF VT WL HOLD IN THE U50S TO LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE NEK VALLEYS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL CLOSED CIRCULATION LIFTS INTO
EASTERN CANADA WITH CYCLONIC NW FLW ACRS OUR CWA. BEST 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 12Z TUES...BUT GIVEN AMOUNT OF
ENERGY IN THE FLW ALOFT AND SOME SFC HEATING ON TUES AFTN...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY
WL DECREASE BY TUES EVENING...WITH CHILLY NORTHWEST WINDS. TUES/TUES
NIGHT WL FEEL A BIT LIKE FALL WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
U50S/L60S MTNS TO NEAR 70F WARMER VALLEYS...ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS ONLY BTWN 6-8C. WINDS/CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL RH
WL KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT ON TUES NIGHT...THINKING
MAINLY 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH TROUGH
WEAKENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS.

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE TIME TO BE DRY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH
DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRONGEST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LARGELY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
TO BE AROUND 10-11C WED/THU THEN MODERATE TO 12-13C BY THE WEEKEND.
WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WED/THU AND AROUND 80 FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT MINS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT IN
CANADA...BUT PROBABILITIES ONLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. HAVE INCLUDED
MENTION OF VCTS AT NORTHERN NY TAF SITES WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DECREASE THIS EVENING UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.
COULD BE SOME FG/BR LATER TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF CLEARING AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS JUST TO THE NORTH.
BETWEEN 09-12Z RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT INTO
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER
TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER POSSIBLE AT
VERMONT SITES.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS PM. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 KTS
DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 271942
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
342 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK WILL TRACK INTO
VERMONT ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL. A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN VERMONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO START THE WORK WEEK...WITH SOME
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SUNDAY...WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE WESTERN
FLW ALOFT WL QUICKLY EXIT OUR NORTHERN/CENTRAL CWA BY 03Z...AND
ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS/STORMS WL BE DISSIPATING. EXPECTING PULSE
LIKE STORMS WITH LIMITED ORGANIZATION TO CONT THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING. LAPS SHOWS SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1500 AND 1800 J/KG. THIS
WL PRODUCE SCATTERED ACTIVITY WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...ISOLATED
SMALL HAIL...AND VERY LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS. WL MENTION CHC POPS
FOR NORTHERN VT THRU 02Z THIS EVENING...THEN TAPER TO SCHC INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HRS. STILL CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR
TWO...PER POSITION OF SFC BOUNDARY ACRS OUR CENTRAL ZNS...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED VORTS. MEANWHILE...TWD 12Z MONDAY MOISTURE AND ENERGY
FROM NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM WL BE APPROACHING OUR SOUTHERN CWA. WL
INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY AFT 09Z MONDAY...TO SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY
FASTER ARRIVAL OF THIS PRECIP. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE OVERNIGHT
LOWS WITH CLOUDS AND HIGHER SFC DWPTS...THINKING MAINLY 50S MTNS
TO 60S WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SUNDAY...POTENT SYSTEM WL IMPACT OUR CWA ON MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT. IN ADDITION...STILL WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
STORMS ACRS OUR EASTERN/SOUTHERN CWA ON MONDAY AFTN...AS PART OF
THIS AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL
GENERAL BE BTWN 1 AND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS FROM THE DACKS TO CPV TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT MTNS. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES...BUT COULD SEE SOME MINOR
POOR DRAINAGE URBAN FLOODING IN THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES ON
MONDAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT ACRS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...QUICKLY MOVING SE TWD THE OHIO VALLEY ATTM...WITH SOME
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALREADY NOTED UNDER THE 5H CIRCULATION. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND UPSTREAM ACTION TODAY...MAKES FOR A TRICKY
SFC LOW TRACK HEADING INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF A STRONG NW TO SE THERMAL BOUNDARY. AS VIGOROUS 5H VORT ROUNDS
MID/UPPER LVL TROF...SYSTEM WL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY 18Z
WEDS...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING FROM NEAR KBGM AT 12Z MONDAY TO
NORTHERN VT BY 00Z TUES. THIS TRACK PLACES OUR WESTERN CWA ON THE
COOL SIDE...WHILE PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON MONDAY AFTN. THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MID WAA LIFT/MOISTURE WL DEVELOP ACRS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AROUND 12Z MONDAY AND LIFT INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT 14Z...BEFORE BEING NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 16Z
MONDAY. THIS LIFT/MOISTURE WL RESULT IN A 2 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW OF
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. HOWEVER...AS SOME BREAKS
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AFTN...SFC INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 30 KNOTS. THINKING SCATTERED STORMS WL DEVELOP ACRS OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA...WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE....ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ON MONDAY WL BE
DRIVEN BY THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND NOT SO MUCH THE INSTABILITY. BOTH
THE GFS/NAM 850 TO 500MB RH PROGS SHOW A NICE WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
DEVELOPING ACRS OUR EASTERN CWA AT 18Z MONDAY...WHILE A BAND OF DEEP
RH ASSOCIATED WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST LVLL UPSLOPE FLW AND ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM
THERMAL DRIVEN MID LVL TROWAL FEATURE WL HELP TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
MODERATE RAINFALL ACRS THE DACKS INTO THE CPV AND MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE
CLOSED 85H AND 7H CIRCULATIONS...AND SFC LOW...EXPECT BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION PRECIP TO LINGER OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
ON TUES MORNING. THINKING TOTAL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.25 AN 0.75"
SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 0.75 TO 1.75" EASTERN DACKS/CPV AND NORTHERN
VT....WITH AMOUNTS BTWN 0.50 AND 1.0" ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2.0" POSSIBLE DUE TO
CONVECTION AND TRRN. EXPECTING SOME SHARP RISES ON SMALLER
STREAMS/RIVERS...BUT GIVEN RECENT DRY SPELL NO MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES
ANTICIPATED ATTM. VERY INTERESTING TEMP PROFILE ON MONDAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE CPV/SLV AND LVLL CAA/CLOUDS...TEMPS WL
STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 50S DACKS TO L/M60S CPV/SLV AND MID 70S LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. THE MTNS OF VT WL HOLD IN THE U50S TO LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE NEK VALLEYS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL CLOSED CIRCULATION LIFTS INTO
EASTERN CANADA WITH CYCLONIC NW FLW ACRS OUR CWA. BEST 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 12Z TUES...BUT GIVEN AMOUNT OF
ENERGY IN THE FLW ALOFT AND SOME SFC HEATING ON TUES AFTN...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY
WL DECREASE BY TUES EVENING...WITH CHILLY NORTHWEST WINDS. TUES/TUES
NIGHT WL FEEL A BIT LIKE FALL WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
U50S/L60S MTNS TO NEAR 70F WARMER VALLEYS...ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS ONLY BTWN 6-8C. WINDS/CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL RH
WL KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT ON TUES NIGHT...THINKING
MAINLY 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH TROUGH
WEAKENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS.

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE TIME TO BE DRY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH
DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRONGEST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LARGELY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
TO BE AROUND 10-11C WED/THU THEN MODERATE TO 12-13C BY THE WEEKEND.
WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WED/THU AND AROUND 80 FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT MINS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT IN
CANADA...BUT PROBABILITIES ONLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. HAVE INCLUDED
MENTION OF VCTS AT NORTHERN NY TAF SITES WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DECREASE THIS EVENING UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.
COULD BE SOME FG/BR LATER TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF CLEARING AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS JUST TO THE NORTH.
BETWEEN 09-12Z RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT INTO
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER
TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER POSSIBLE AT
VERMONT SITES.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS PM. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 KTS
DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 271942
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
342 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW YORK WILL TRACK INTO
VERMONT ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL. A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN VERMONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO START THE WORK WEEK...WITH SOME
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SUNDAY...WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE WESTERN
FLW ALOFT WL QUICKLY EXIT OUR NORTHERN/CENTRAL CWA BY 03Z...AND
ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS/STORMS WL BE DISSIPATING. EXPECTING PULSE
LIKE STORMS WITH LIMITED ORGANIZATION TO CONT THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING. LAPS SHOWS SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1500 AND 1800 J/KG. THIS
WL PRODUCE SCATTERED ACTIVITY WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...ISOLATED
SMALL HAIL...AND VERY LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS. WL MENTION CHC POPS
FOR NORTHERN VT THRU 02Z THIS EVENING...THEN TAPER TO SCHC INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HRS. STILL CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR
TWO...PER POSITION OF SFC BOUNDARY ACRS OUR CENTRAL ZNS...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED VORTS. MEANWHILE...TWD 12Z MONDAY MOISTURE AND ENERGY
FROM NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM WL BE APPROACHING OUR SOUTHERN CWA. WL
INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY AFT 09Z MONDAY...TO SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY
FASTER ARRIVAL OF THIS PRECIP. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE OVERNIGHT
LOWS WITH CLOUDS AND HIGHER SFC DWPTS...THINKING MAINLY 50S MTNS
TO 60S WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT SUNDAY...POTENT SYSTEM WL IMPACT OUR CWA ON MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT. IN ADDITION...STILL WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
STORMS ACRS OUR EASTERN/SOUTHERN CWA ON MONDAY AFTN...AS PART OF
THIS AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL
GENERAL BE BTWN 1 AND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS FROM THE DACKS TO CPV TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT MTNS. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES...BUT COULD SEE SOME MINOR
POOR DRAINAGE URBAN FLOODING IN THE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES ON
MONDAY.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT ACRS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...QUICKLY MOVING SE TWD THE OHIO VALLEY ATTM...WITH SOME
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALREADY NOTED UNDER THE 5H CIRCULATION. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND UPSTREAM ACTION TODAY...MAKES FOR A TRICKY
SFC LOW TRACK HEADING INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF A STRONG NW TO SE THERMAL BOUNDARY. AS VIGOROUS 5H VORT ROUNDS
MID/UPPER LVL TROF...SYSTEM WL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY 18Z
WEDS...WITH SFC LOW PRES TRACKING FROM NEAR KBGM AT 12Z MONDAY TO
NORTHERN VT BY 00Z TUES. THIS TRACK PLACES OUR WESTERN CWA ON THE
COOL SIDE...WHILE PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ON MONDAY AFTN. THINKING
INITIAL SURGE OF MID WAA LIFT/MOISTURE WL DEVELOP ACRS
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AROUND 12Z MONDAY AND LIFT INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT 14Z...BEFORE BEING NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 16Z
MONDAY. THIS LIFT/MOISTURE WL RESULT IN A 2 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW OF
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. HOWEVER...AS SOME BREAKS
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY AFTN...SFC INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 30 KNOTS. THINKING SCATTERED STORMS WL DEVELOP ACRS OUR
EXTREME EASTERN CWA...WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE....ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ON MONDAY WL BE
DRIVEN BY THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND NOT SO MUCH THE INSTABILITY. BOTH
THE GFS/NAM 850 TO 500MB RH PROGS SHOW A NICE WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
DEVELOPING ACRS OUR EASTERN CWA AT 18Z MONDAY...WHILE A BAND OF DEEP
RH ASSOCIATED WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHERN VT. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST LVLL UPSLOPE FLW AND ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM
THERMAL DRIVEN MID LVL TROWAL FEATURE WL HELP TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
MODERATE RAINFALL ACRS THE DACKS INTO THE CPV AND MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT ON MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE
CLOSED 85H AND 7H CIRCULATIONS...AND SFC LOW...EXPECT BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION PRECIP TO LINGER OVERNIGHT MONDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
ON TUES MORNING. THINKING TOTAL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.25 AN 0.75"
SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 0.75 TO 1.75" EASTERN DACKS/CPV AND NORTHERN
VT....WITH AMOUNTS BTWN 0.50 AND 1.0" ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
VT...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2.0" POSSIBLE DUE TO
CONVECTION AND TRRN. EXPECTING SOME SHARP RISES ON SMALLER
STREAMS/RIVERS...BUT GIVEN RECENT DRY SPELL NO MAJOR HYDRO ISSUES
ANTICIPATED ATTM. VERY INTERESTING TEMP PROFILE ON MONDAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THE CPV/SLV AND LVLL CAA/CLOUDS...TEMPS WL
STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 50S DACKS TO L/M60S CPV/SLV AND MID 70S LWR CT
RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. THE MTNS OF VT WL HOLD IN THE U50S TO LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE NEK VALLEYS.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL CLOSED CIRCULATION LIFTS INTO
EASTERN CANADA WITH CYCLONIC NW FLW ACRS OUR CWA. BEST 850 TO 500MB
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF OUR CWA BY 12Z TUES...BUT GIVEN AMOUNT OF
ENERGY IN THE FLW ALOFT AND SOME SFC HEATING ON TUES AFTN...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTN...ESPECIALLY WITH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY
WL DECREASE BY TUES EVENING...WITH CHILLY NORTHWEST WINDS. TUES/TUES
NIGHT WL FEEL A BIT LIKE FALL WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
U50S/L60S MTNS TO NEAR 70F WARMER VALLEYS...ASSOCIATED WITH PROGGED
85H TEMPS ONLY BTWN 6-8C. WINDS/CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL RH
WL KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT ON TUES NIGHT...THINKING
MAINLY 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH TROUGH
WEAKENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS.

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE TIME TO BE DRY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH
DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRONGEST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LARGELY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
TO BE AROUND 10-11C WED/THU THEN MODERATE TO 12-13C BY THE WEEKEND.
WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WED/THU AND AROUND 80 FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT MINS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT IN
CANADA...BUT PROBABILITIES ONLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. HAVE INCLUDED
MENTION OF VCTS AT NORTHERN NY TAF SITES WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DECREASE THIS EVENING UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.
COULD BE SOME FG/BR LATER TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF CLEARING AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS JUST TO THE NORTH.
BETWEEN 09-12Z RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT INTO
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER
TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER POSSIBLE AT
VERMONT SITES.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS PM. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 KTS
DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 271919
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
319 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY INTO MONDAY. INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A POTENT MID-SUMMER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
MONDAY WITH A WETTING RAINFALL TO THE REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. GRADUALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...EARLY AFTN UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST
TRENDS IN BAND OF RAIN MOVING ACRS EXTREME EASTERN VT AND
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THIS AFTN. I HAVE CUT POPS TO
CHC ACRS ENTIRE CWA AS STEADIER PRECIP WL BE EAST OF OUR CWA VERY
SHORTLY. LATEST LAPS DATA SHOWS SFC INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACRS
NORTHERN NY WITH VALUES BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...ASSOCIATED WITH
SOME CLRING IN THE VIS SATL. THIS HAS HELPED WARM TEMPS INTO THE
70S...WITH DWPTS IN THE MID 60S...CREATING THIS INSTABILITY. THIS
CLEARING AND INSTABILITY WL SHIFT INTO THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT
THIS AFTN...BUT ULVL FORCING IS PRETTY LIMITED. THIS COMBINED WITH
MINIMAL INSTABILITY WL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING THIS AFTN...MAINLY ACRS NORTHERN NY INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT. THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUPPORT
PULSE LIKE ACTIVITY WITH NO REAL ORGANIZATION. WL CONT TO MENTION
CHC POPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL AND KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
70S...WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR 80 POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 437 AM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. MORE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FOR TUESDAY BUT STILL GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNDER A WELL-ADVERTISED 500 MB TROUGH.

TONIGHT: STILL CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM EARLY
EVENING BUT ALREADY LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BECOME EVEN MORE SO BY
DARK. THE STRONG...POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSUMES A
NEGATIVE TILT BY 12Z MONDAY AND INDUCES SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT NEAR
CENTRAL PA LATER TONIGHT. THERE`S SOME QUESTION MARKS AS TO THIS
LOW`S EXACT TRACK ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF POTENTIAL MASS FIELD
CHANGES GIVEN A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
/APPALACHIANS TODAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER AGREEMENT ON A MORE
INTERIOR TRACK (LOW ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION
BY 12Z MONDAY) - AND THERE ARE GOOD SIGNALS IN HIGH RES MODELS OF A
BAND OF MODERATE RAIN ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF SFC LOW`S
TRACK. THAT BAND OF MODERATE RAIN LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN
VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. INITIALLY KEPT
POPS AROUND CHANCE CATEGORY BUT BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD AFTER
MIDNIGHT TO LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LOWS
UNLIKELY TO FALL MUCH UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MAV OR MET MOS GUIDANCE.

MONDAY & MONDAY NIGHT: SFC LOW THEN TRACKS UP THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/GREEN MOUNTAINS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...500 MB TROUGH ALSO
PIVOTS NORTHWARD BUT APPEARS TO CLOSE OFF BY MONDAY EVENING. WITH
THAT EXPECTED LOW TRACK...IT LEAVES CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT IN THE
WARM SECTOR. FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IF GREATER INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED (GENERALLY IS
HIGHEST IN THE 00Z GFS) IN THIS CORRIDOR. NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
TRACK...MORE STRATIFORM MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. I`VE INDICATED
CHANCE THUNDER FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT IN PROGGED WARM
SECTOR...BUT HAVE OTHERWISE KEPT THUNDER OUT ELSEWHERE WHERE IT`S
LIKELY TO BE MORE RAIN-COOLED/STABLE. CATEGORICAL POPS OFFERED
MONDAY WITH GRADUAL TAPER TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. TEMPS ARE TRICKY/DEPENDENT ON LOW TRACK...BUT LIKELY TO BE
BELOW NORMAL AND CLOSER TO NORMAL IF WARM SECTOR CAN GET
ESTABLISHED. HIGHS IN NORTHERN NY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES
IN A CLOUDY/RAINY DAY...AND CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER 70S IN CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT. QPF MONDAY RANGES FROM LESS THAN A HALF-INCH
FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY... .75-1" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT TO JUST
A TICK OVER AN INCH FOR THE ADIRONDACKS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES FROM THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN.

TUESDAY: UPPER TROUGH EXITS WITH STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTHWEST FLOW...MDT COLD
ADVECTION (850 TEMPS DURING TUESDAY PLUNGE TO +6 TO +8C) AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PRODUCES BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH TROUGH
WEAKENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS.

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE TIME TO BE DRY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH
DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRONGEST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LARGELY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
TO BE AROUND 10-11C WED/THU THEN MODERATE TO 12-13C BY THE WEEKEND.
WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WED/THU AND AROUND 80 FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT MINS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT IN
CANADA...BUT PROBABILITIES ONLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. HAVE INCLUDED
MENTION OF VCTS AT NORTHERN NY TAF SITES WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DECREASE THIS EVENING UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.
COULD BE SOME FG/BR LATER TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF CLEARING AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS JUST TO THE NORTH.
BETWEEN 09-12Z RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT INTO
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER
TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER POSSIBLE AT
VERMONT SITES.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS PM. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 KTS
DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 550 AM EDT SUNDAY...A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT AND NOW EXTENDS FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY TO THE EASTERN
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE IS NO IMMEDIATE THREAT OF
LIGHTNING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN...EXPECT THESE STORMS TO APPROACH LAKE
CHAMPLAIN BY MID-MORNING. BOATERS AND OTHERS NEAR THE LAKE SHOULD
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR AS THESE STORMS MOVE
THROUGH...WITH OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS
PRODUCING BRIEFLY LOWERED VISIBILITY...AND ROUGH SEAS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS
MARINE...LOCONTO






000
FXUS61 KBTV 271919
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
319 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY INTO MONDAY. INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A POTENT MID-SUMMER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
MONDAY WITH A WETTING RAINFALL TO THE REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. GRADUALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...EARLY AFTN UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST
TRENDS IN BAND OF RAIN MOVING ACRS EXTREME EASTERN VT AND
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THIS AFTN. I HAVE CUT POPS TO
CHC ACRS ENTIRE CWA AS STEADIER PRECIP WL BE EAST OF OUR CWA VERY
SHORTLY. LATEST LAPS DATA SHOWS SFC INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACRS
NORTHERN NY WITH VALUES BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...ASSOCIATED WITH
SOME CLRING IN THE VIS SATL. THIS HAS HELPED WARM TEMPS INTO THE
70S...WITH DWPTS IN THE MID 60S...CREATING THIS INSTABILITY. THIS
CLEARING AND INSTABILITY WL SHIFT INTO THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT
THIS AFTN...BUT ULVL FORCING IS PRETTY LIMITED. THIS COMBINED WITH
MINIMAL INSTABILITY WL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING THIS AFTN...MAINLY ACRS NORTHERN NY INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT. THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUPPORT
PULSE LIKE ACTIVITY WITH NO REAL ORGANIZATION. WL CONT TO MENTION
CHC POPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL AND KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
70S...WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR 80 POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 437 AM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. MORE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FOR TUESDAY BUT STILL GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNDER A WELL-ADVERTISED 500 MB TROUGH.

TONIGHT: STILL CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM EARLY
EVENING BUT ALREADY LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BECOME EVEN MORE SO BY
DARK. THE STRONG...POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSUMES A
NEGATIVE TILT BY 12Z MONDAY AND INDUCES SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT NEAR
CENTRAL PA LATER TONIGHT. THERE`S SOME QUESTION MARKS AS TO THIS
LOW`S EXACT TRACK ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF POTENTIAL MASS FIELD
CHANGES GIVEN A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
/APPALACHIANS TODAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER AGREEMENT ON A MORE
INTERIOR TRACK (LOW ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION
BY 12Z MONDAY) - AND THERE ARE GOOD SIGNALS IN HIGH RES MODELS OF A
BAND OF MODERATE RAIN ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF SFC LOW`S
TRACK. THAT BAND OF MODERATE RAIN LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN
VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. INITIALLY KEPT
POPS AROUND CHANCE CATEGORY BUT BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD AFTER
MIDNIGHT TO LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LOWS
UNLIKELY TO FALL MUCH UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MAV OR MET MOS GUIDANCE.

MONDAY & MONDAY NIGHT: SFC LOW THEN TRACKS UP THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/GREEN MOUNTAINS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...500 MB TROUGH ALSO
PIVOTS NORTHWARD BUT APPEARS TO CLOSE OFF BY MONDAY EVENING. WITH
THAT EXPECTED LOW TRACK...IT LEAVES CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT IN THE
WARM SECTOR. FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IF GREATER INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED (GENERALLY IS
HIGHEST IN THE 00Z GFS) IN THIS CORRIDOR. NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
TRACK...MORE STRATIFORM MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. I`VE INDICATED
CHANCE THUNDER FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT IN PROGGED WARM
SECTOR...BUT HAVE OTHERWISE KEPT THUNDER OUT ELSEWHERE WHERE IT`S
LIKELY TO BE MORE RAIN-COOLED/STABLE. CATEGORICAL POPS OFFERED
MONDAY WITH GRADUAL TAPER TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. TEMPS ARE TRICKY/DEPENDENT ON LOW TRACK...BUT LIKELY TO BE
BELOW NORMAL AND CLOSER TO NORMAL IF WARM SECTOR CAN GET
ESTABLISHED. HIGHS IN NORTHERN NY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES
IN A CLOUDY/RAINY DAY...AND CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER 70S IN CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT. QPF MONDAY RANGES FROM LESS THAN A HALF-INCH
FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY... .75-1" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT TO JUST
A TICK OVER AN INCH FOR THE ADIRONDACKS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES FROM THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN.

TUESDAY: UPPER TROUGH EXITS WITH STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTHWEST FLOW...MDT COLD
ADVECTION (850 TEMPS DURING TUESDAY PLUNGE TO +6 TO +8C) AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PRODUCES BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING
DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH TROUGH
WEAKENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS.

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE TIME TO BE DRY. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH
DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR OUT...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
STRONGEST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LARGELY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
TO BE AROUND 10-11C WED/THU THEN MODERATE TO 12-13C BY THE WEEKEND.
WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WED/THU AND AROUND 80 FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT MINS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT IN
CANADA...BUT PROBABILITIES ONLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. HAVE INCLUDED
MENTION OF VCTS AT NORTHERN NY TAF SITES WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DECREASE THIS EVENING UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.
COULD BE SOME FG/BR LATER TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF CLEARING AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS JUST TO THE NORTH.
BETWEEN 09-12Z RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT INTO
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER
TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER POSSIBLE AT
VERMONT SITES.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS PM. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 KTS
DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 550 AM EDT SUNDAY...A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT AND NOW EXTENDS FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY TO THE EASTERN
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE IS NO IMMEDIATE THREAT OF
LIGHTNING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN...EXPECT THESE STORMS TO APPROACH LAKE
CHAMPLAIN BY MID-MORNING. BOATERS AND OTHERS NEAR THE LAKE SHOULD
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR AS THESE STORMS MOVE
THROUGH...WITH OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS
PRODUCING BRIEFLY LOWERED VISIBILITY...AND ROUGH SEAS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS
MARINE...LOCONTO







000
FXUS61 KALY 271736
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST NEEDED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
EXCEPT TO LOWER RAIN PROBABILITIES IN SOME AREAS AND SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
IN SOUTHERN AREAS. 12Z AREA SOUNDINGS SHOW RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...BUT BASED ON TRENDS AND THE CONVECTION
THAT EXITED OUR REGION THROUGH THE MORNING...NO REAL TRIGGER TO
INITIATE NEW CONVECTION. ALSO...DRYING ALOFT...SEEN IN UPSTREAM
SOUNDINGS PROBABLY ACTING TO CAP CONVECTION TO SOME DEGREE.

STILL...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY COULD STRENGTHEN AS WE APPROACH THE MAXIMUM
HEATING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME BROAD CONVERGENCE
SEEN IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE REGION IN MESOSCALE
ANALYSES BUT OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM THE CONVECTION THIS
MORNING ARE DIFFICULT TO DETECT. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND BASED ON INSTABILITY...COULD
REACH SEVERE LEVELS...SO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND WILL NOT IMPACT EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HAVE INDICATED
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF FA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY BTWN 04Z
AND 06Z. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MOHAWK VLY
AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

MEANWHILE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCE 0.8 TO 1.8 IN OF QPF BTWN
05UTC TNGT AND 00UTC TUE, SO...FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF
GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE
CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VICINITY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WORD FOR THE EFP IS RETROGRADE.

PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE 500HPA TROF STILL IN PLACE OVER E NA.
GFS/ECMWF BRING YET ANOTHER SHORT WV AROUND BASE OF TROF LATE WED
INTO THUR WITH INCR CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA AGAIN N & W OF ALB. ITS
MORE LIKE SUFFICIENT INSTAB TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHC N&W OF ALB
OVER HIR TRRN WITH DIURNAL CYCLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...AS THE CUTOFF LIFTS NE INTO QB...THE LAST PIECES OF ENERGY
SHIFT THE TROF WEST...CREATE A CUT OFF...THAT RETROGRADES TO THE
OHIO VLY OR MISS VLY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.

THE ONE ITEM OF CONSENSUS WILL BE THE RIDGING OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
AT ALL LEVELS...WITH 500HPA RIDGE RETROGRADING TWRD THE COAST.
WHILE THERE NOT MUCH SFC FLOW OR FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD...BERMUDA HIGH RETROGRESSION RESULTS IN A S-SE FLOW ALOFT AND
INCR MOISTURE...CLOUDS...TEMPS.

OF NOTE ON GEFS PLUMES THERE`S A TENTH OR TWO OF QPF WED NT/THU ON
A FEW MEMBERS AND 3 MEMBERS WITH SOME QPF LATE SUNDAY 8/3 INTO MON
8/4...OTHERWISE ITS FLAT LINED AFTN MON EVNG ON MOST MEMBERS.

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES...PARTLY CLOUDY SKYS...AND SCT
MAINLY AFTN OR EVNG TSTMS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. DUE TO SPARSE
COVERAGE...WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH IN THE TAFS.

HOWEVER..A MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND RATHER INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. WILL MENTION PREVAILING RAIN AND MVFR WITH PROB30 FOR
TSRA WITH IFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THIS IS LESS CERTAIN. THE AREA THAT COULD
SEE GUSTY TSRA WOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH OF KALB...INCLUDING THE
KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. WILL REFINE FORECAST FURTHER WITH SUBSEQUENT
SET OF TAFS.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT...BECOMING
VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTH
TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 271736
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST NEEDED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
EXCEPT TO LOWER RAIN PROBABILITIES IN SOME AREAS AND SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
IN SOUTHERN AREAS. 12Z AREA SOUNDINGS SHOW RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...BUT BASED ON TRENDS AND THE CONVECTION
THAT EXITED OUR REGION THROUGH THE MORNING...NO REAL TRIGGER TO
INITIATE NEW CONVECTION. ALSO...DRYING ALOFT...SEEN IN UPSTREAM
SOUNDINGS PROBABLY ACTING TO CAP CONVECTION TO SOME DEGREE.

STILL...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY COULD STRENGTHEN AS WE APPROACH THE MAXIMUM
HEATING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME BROAD CONVERGENCE
SEEN IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE REGION IN MESOSCALE
ANALYSES BUT OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM THE CONVECTION THIS
MORNING ARE DIFFICULT TO DETECT. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND BASED ON INSTABILITY...COULD
REACH SEVERE LEVELS...SO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND WILL NOT IMPACT EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HAVE INDICATED
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF FA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY BTWN 04Z
AND 06Z. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MOHAWK VLY
AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

MEANWHILE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCE 0.8 TO 1.8 IN OF QPF BTWN
05UTC TNGT AND 00UTC TUE, SO...FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF
GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE
CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VICINITY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WORD FOR THE EFP IS RETROGRADE.

PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE 500HPA TROF STILL IN PLACE OVER E NA.
GFS/ECMWF BRING YET ANOTHER SHORT WV AROUND BASE OF TROF LATE WED
INTO THUR WITH INCR CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA AGAIN N & W OF ALB. ITS
MORE LIKE SUFFICIENT INSTAB TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHC N&W OF ALB
OVER HIR TRRN WITH DIURNAL CYCLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...AS THE CUTOFF LIFTS NE INTO QB...THE LAST PIECES OF ENERGY
SHIFT THE TROF WEST...CREATE A CUT OFF...THAT RETROGRADES TO THE
OHIO VLY OR MISS VLY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.

THE ONE ITEM OF CONSENSUS WILL BE THE RIDGING OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
AT ALL LEVELS...WITH 500HPA RIDGE RETROGRADING TWRD THE COAST.
WHILE THERE NOT MUCH SFC FLOW OR FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD...BERMUDA HIGH RETROGRESSION RESULTS IN A S-SE FLOW ALOFT AND
INCR MOISTURE...CLOUDS...TEMPS.

OF NOTE ON GEFS PLUMES THERE`S A TENTH OR TWO OF QPF WED NT/THU ON
A FEW MEMBERS AND 3 MEMBERS WITH SOME QPF LATE SUNDAY 8/3 INTO MON
8/4...OTHERWISE ITS FLAT LINED AFTN MON EVNG ON MOST MEMBERS.

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES...PARTLY CLOUDY SKYS...AND SCT
MAINLY AFTN OR EVNG TSTMS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. DUE TO SPARSE
COVERAGE...WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH IN THE TAFS.

HOWEVER..A MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND RATHER INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. WILL MENTION PREVAILING RAIN AND MVFR WITH PROB30 FOR
TSRA WITH IFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THIS IS LESS CERTAIN. THE AREA THAT COULD
SEE GUSTY TSRA WOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH OF KALB...INCLUDING THE
KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. WILL REFINE FORECAST FURTHER WITH SUBSEQUENT
SET OF TAFS.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT...BECOMING
VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTH
TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 271736
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST NEEDED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
EXCEPT TO LOWER RAIN PROBABILITIES IN SOME AREAS AND SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
IN SOUTHERN AREAS. 12Z AREA SOUNDINGS SHOW RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...BUT BASED ON TRENDS AND THE CONVECTION
THAT EXITED OUR REGION THROUGH THE MORNING...NO REAL TRIGGER TO
INITIATE NEW CONVECTION. ALSO...DRYING ALOFT...SEEN IN UPSTREAM
SOUNDINGS PROBABLY ACTING TO CAP CONVECTION TO SOME DEGREE.

STILL...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY COULD STRENGTHEN AS WE APPROACH THE MAXIMUM
HEATING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME BROAD CONVERGENCE
SEEN IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE REGION IN MESOSCALE
ANALYSES BUT OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM THE CONVECTION THIS
MORNING ARE DIFFICULT TO DETECT. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND BASED ON INSTABILITY...COULD
REACH SEVERE LEVELS...SO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND WILL NOT IMPACT EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HAVE INDICATED
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF FA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY BTWN 04Z
AND 06Z. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MOHAWK VLY
AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

MEANWHILE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCE 0.8 TO 1.8 IN OF QPF BTWN
05UTC TNGT AND 00UTC TUE, SO...FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF
GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE
CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VICINITY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WORD FOR THE EFP IS RETROGRADE.

PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE 500HPA TROF STILL IN PLACE OVER E NA.
GFS/ECMWF BRING YET ANOTHER SHORT WV AROUND BASE OF TROF LATE WED
INTO THUR WITH INCR CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA AGAIN N & W OF ALB. ITS
MORE LIKE SUFFICIENT INSTAB TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHC N&W OF ALB
OVER HIR TRRN WITH DIURNAL CYCLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...AS THE CUTOFF LIFTS NE INTO QB...THE LAST PIECES OF ENERGY
SHIFT THE TROF WEST...CREATE A CUT OFF...THAT RETROGRADES TO THE
OHIO VLY OR MISS VLY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.

THE ONE ITEM OF CONSENSUS WILL BE THE RIDGING OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
AT ALL LEVELS...WITH 500HPA RIDGE RETROGRADING TWRD THE COAST.
WHILE THERE NOT MUCH SFC FLOW OR FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD...BERMUDA HIGH RETROGRESSION RESULTS IN A S-SE FLOW ALOFT AND
INCR MOISTURE...CLOUDS...TEMPS.

OF NOTE ON GEFS PLUMES THERE`S A TENTH OR TWO OF QPF WED NT/THU ON
A FEW MEMBERS AND 3 MEMBERS WITH SOME QPF LATE SUNDAY 8/3 INTO MON
8/4...OTHERWISE ITS FLAT LINED AFTN MON EVNG ON MOST MEMBERS.

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES...PARTLY CLOUDY SKYS...AND SCT
MAINLY AFTN OR EVNG TSTMS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. DUE TO SPARSE
COVERAGE...WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH IN THE TAFS.

HOWEVER..A MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND RATHER INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. WILL MENTION PREVAILING RAIN AND MVFR WITH PROB30 FOR
TSRA WITH IFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THIS IS LESS CERTAIN. THE AREA THAT COULD
SEE GUSTY TSRA WOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH OF KALB...INCLUDING THE
KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. WILL REFINE FORECAST FURTHER WITH SUBSEQUENT
SET OF TAFS.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT...BECOMING
VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTH
TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 271736
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST NEEDED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
EXCEPT TO LOWER RAIN PROBABILITIES IN SOME AREAS AND SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
IN SOUTHERN AREAS. 12Z AREA SOUNDINGS SHOW RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...BUT BASED ON TRENDS AND THE CONVECTION
THAT EXITED OUR REGION THROUGH THE MORNING...NO REAL TRIGGER TO
INITIATE NEW CONVECTION. ALSO...DRYING ALOFT...SEEN IN UPSTREAM
SOUNDINGS PROBABLY ACTING TO CAP CONVECTION TO SOME DEGREE.

STILL...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY COULD STRENGTHEN AS WE APPROACH THE MAXIMUM
HEATING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME BROAD CONVERGENCE
SEEN IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE REGION IN MESOSCALE
ANALYSES BUT OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM THE CONVECTION THIS
MORNING ARE DIFFICULT TO DETECT. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND BASED ON INSTABILITY...COULD
REACH SEVERE LEVELS...SO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND WILL NOT IMPACT EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HAVE INDICATED
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF FA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY BTWN 04Z
AND 06Z. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MOHAWK VLY
AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

MEANWHILE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCE 0.8 TO 1.8 IN OF QPF BTWN
05UTC TNGT AND 00UTC TUE, SO...FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF
GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE
CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VICINITY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WORD FOR THE EFP IS RETROGRADE.

PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE 500HPA TROF STILL IN PLACE OVER E NA.
GFS/ECMWF BRING YET ANOTHER SHORT WV AROUND BASE OF TROF LATE WED
INTO THUR WITH INCR CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA AGAIN N & W OF ALB. ITS
MORE LIKE SUFFICIENT INSTAB TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHC N&W OF ALB
OVER HIR TRRN WITH DIURNAL CYCLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...AS THE CUTOFF LIFTS NE INTO QB...THE LAST PIECES OF ENERGY
SHIFT THE TROF WEST...CREATE A CUT OFF...THAT RETROGRADES TO THE
OHIO VLY OR MISS VLY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.

THE ONE ITEM OF CONSENSUS WILL BE THE RIDGING OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
AT ALL LEVELS...WITH 500HPA RIDGE RETROGRADING TWRD THE COAST.
WHILE THERE NOT MUCH SFC FLOW OR FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD...BERMUDA HIGH RETROGRESSION RESULTS IN A S-SE FLOW ALOFT AND
INCR MOISTURE...CLOUDS...TEMPS.

OF NOTE ON GEFS PLUMES THERE`S A TENTH OR TWO OF QPF WED NT/THU ON
A FEW MEMBERS AND 3 MEMBERS WITH SOME QPF LATE SUNDAY 8/3 INTO MON
8/4...OTHERWISE ITS FLAT LINED AFTN MON EVNG ON MOST MEMBERS.

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES...PARTLY CLOUDY SKYS...AND SCT
MAINLY AFTN OR EVNG TSTMS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. DUE TO SPARSE
COVERAGE...WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH IN THE TAFS.

HOWEVER..A MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND RATHER INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. WILL MENTION PREVAILING RAIN AND MVFR WITH PROB30 FOR
TSRA WITH IFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THIS IS LESS CERTAIN. THE AREA THAT COULD
SEE GUSTY TSRA WOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH OF KALB...INCLUDING THE
KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. WILL REFINE FORECAST FURTHER WITH SUBSEQUENT
SET OF TAFS.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT...BECOMING
VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTH
TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 271729
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
129 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY INTO MONDAY. INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A POTENT MID-SUMMER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
MONDAY WITH A WETTING RAINFALL TO THE REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. GRADUALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...EARLY AFTN UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST
TRENDS IN BAND OF RAIN MOVING ACRS EXTREME EASTERN VT AND
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THIS AFTN. I HAVE CUT POPS TO
CHC ACRS ENTIRE CWA AS STEADIER PRECIP WL BE EAST OF OUR CWA VERY
SHORTLY. LATEST LAPS DATA SHOWS SFC INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACRS
NORTHERN NY WITH VALUES BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...ASSOCIATED WITH
SOME CLRING IN THE VIS SATL. THIS HAS HELPED WARM TEMPS INTO THE
70S...WITH DWPTS IN THE MID 60S...CREATING THIS INSTABILITY. THIS
CLEARING AND INSTABILITY WL SHIFT INTO THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT
THIS AFTN...BUT ULVL FORCING IS PRETTY LIMITED. THIS COMBINED WITH
MINIMAL INSTABILITY WL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING THIS AFTN...MAINLY ACRS NORTHERN NY INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT. THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUPPORT
PULSE LIKE ACTIVITY WITH NO REAL ORGANIZATION. WL CONT TO MENTION
CHC POPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL AND KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
70S...WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR 80 POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 437 AM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. MORE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FOR TUESDAY BUT STILL GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNDER A WELL-ADVERTISED 500 MB TROUGH.

TONIGHT: STILL CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM EARLY
EVENING BUT ALREADY LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BECOME EVEN MORE SO BY
DARK. THE STRONG...POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSUMES A
NEGATIVE TILT BY 12Z MONDAY AND INDUCES SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT NEAR
CENTRAL PA LATER TONIGHT. THERE`S SOME QUESTION MARKS AS TO THIS
LOW`S EXACT TRACK ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF POTENTIAL MASS FIELD
CHANGES GIVEN A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
/APPALACHIANS TODAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER AGREEMENT ON A MORE
INTERIOR TRACK (LOW ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION
BY 12Z MONDAY) - AND THERE ARE GOOD SIGNALS IN HIGH RES MODELS OF A
BAND OF MODERATE RAIN ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF SFC LOW`S
TRACK. THAT BAND OF MODERATE RAIN LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN
VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. INITIALLY KEPT
POPS AROUND CHANCE CATEGORY BUT BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD AFTER
MIDNIGHT TO LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LOWS
UNLIKELY TO FALL MUCH UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MAV OR MET MOS GUIDANCE.

MONDAY & MONDAY NIGHT: SFC LOW THEN TRACKS UP THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/GREEN MOUNTAINS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...500 MB TROUGH ALSO
PIVOTS NORTHWARD BUT APPEARS TO CLOSE OFF BY MONDAY EVENING. WITH
THAT EXPECTED LOW TRACK...IT LEAVES CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT IN THE
WARM SECTOR. FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IF GREATER INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED (GENERALLY IS
HIGHEST IN THE 00Z GFS) IN THIS CORRIDOR. NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
TRACK...MORE STRATIFORM MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. I`VE INDICATED
CHANCE THUNDER FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT IN PROGGED WARM
SECTOR...BUT HAVE OTHERWISE KEPT THUNDER OUT ELSEWHERE WHERE IT`S
LIKELY TO BE MORE RAIN-COOLED/STABLE. CATEGORICAL POPS OFFERED
MONDAY WITH GRADUAL TAPER TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. TEMPS ARE TRICKY/DEPENDENT ON LOW TRACK...BUT LIKELY TO BE
BELOW NORMAL AND CLOSER TO NORMAL IF WARM SECTOR CAN GET
ESTABLISHED. HIGHS IN NORTHERN NY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES
IN A CLOUDY/RAINY DAY...AND CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER 70S IN CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT. QPF MONDAY RANGES FROM LESS THAN A HALF-INCH
FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY... .75-1" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT TO JUST
A TICK OVER AN INCH FOR THE ADIRONDACKS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES FROM THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN.

TUESDAY: UPPER TROUGH EXITS WITH STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTHWEST FLOW...MDT COLD
ADVECTION (850 TEMPS DURING TUESDAY PLUNGE TO +6 TO +8C) AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PRODUCES BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US CENTERED NEAR 80 DEG W WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...THOUGH WEAKENING
WITH RISING HEIGHTS.

THOUGH A SHOWER CAN`T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ANY AFTERNOON DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF TO THE WEST...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SOME INSTABILITY AND SOME QG FORCING.

THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST
WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY
TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH 850 TEMPS ONLY
AROUND 8-10C.

850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY SO THAT BY THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL -
UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT IN
CANADA...BUT PROBABILITIES ONLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. HAVE INCLUDED
MENTION OF VCTS AT NORTHERN NY TAF SITES WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DECREASE THIS EVENING UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.
COULD BE SOME FG/BR LATER TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF CLEARING AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS JUST TO THE NORTH.
BETWEEN 09-12Z RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT INTO
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER
TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER POSSIBLE AT
VERMONT SITES.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS PM. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 KTS
DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 550 AM EDT SUNDAY...A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT AND NOW EXTENDS FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY TO THE EASTERN
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE IS NO IMMEDIATE THREAT OF
LIGHTNING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN...EXPECT THESE STORMS TO APPROACH LAKE
CHAMPLAIN BY MID-MORNING. BOATERS AND OTHERS NEAR THE LAKE SHOULD
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR AS THESE STORMS MOVE
THROUGH...WITH OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS
PRODUCING BRIEFLY LOWERED VISIBILITY...AND ROUGH SEAS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...RJS
MARINE...LOCONTO







000
FXUS61 KBTV 271729
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
129 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY INTO MONDAY. INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A POTENT MID-SUMMER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
MONDAY WITH A WETTING RAINFALL TO THE REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. GRADUALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...EARLY AFTN UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST
TRENDS IN BAND OF RAIN MOVING ACRS EXTREME EASTERN VT AND
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THIS AFTN. I HAVE CUT POPS TO
CHC ACRS ENTIRE CWA AS STEADIER PRECIP WL BE EAST OF OUR CWA VERY
SHORTLY. LATEST LAPS DATA SHOWS SFC INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACRS
NORTHERN NY WITH VALUES BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...ASSOCIATED WITH
SOME CLRING IN THE VIS SATL. THIS HAS HELPED WARM TEMPS INTO THE
70S...WITH DWPTS IN THE MID 60S...CREATING THIS INSTABILITY. THIS
CLEARING AND INSTABILITY WL SHIFT INTO THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT
THIS AFTN...BUT ULVL FORCING IS PRETTY LIMITED. THIS COMBINED WITH
MINIMAL INSTABILITY WL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING THIS AFTN...MAINLY ACRS NORTHERN NY INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT. THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUPPORT
PULSE LIKE ACTIVITY WITH NO REAL ORGANIZATION. WL CONT TO MENTION
CHC POPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL AND KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
70S...WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR 80 POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 437 AM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. MORE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FOR TUESDAY BUT STILL GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNDER A WELL-ADVERTISED 500 MB TROUGH.

TONIGHT: STILL CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM EARLY
EVENING BUT ALREADY LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BECOME EVEN MORE SO BY
DARK. THE STRONG...POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSUMES A
NEGATIVE TILT BY 12Z MONDAY AND INDUCES SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT NEAR
CENTRAL PA LATER TONIGHT. THERE`S SOME QUESTION MARKS AS TO THIS
LOW`S EXACT TRACK ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF POTENTIAL MASS FIELD
CHANGES GIVEN A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
/APPALACHIANS TODAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER AGREEMENT ON A MORE
INTERIOR TRACK (LOW ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION
BY 12Z MONDAY) - AND THERE ARE GOOD SIGNALS IN HIGH RES MODELS OF A
BAND OF MODERATE RAIN ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF SFC LOW`S
TRACK. THAT BAND OF MODERATE RAIN LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN
VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. INITIALLY KEPT
POPS AROUND CHANCE CATEGORY BUT BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD AFTER
MIDNIGHT TO LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LOWS
UNLIKELY TO FALL MUCH UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MAV OR MET MOS GUIDANCE.

MONDAY & MONDAY NIGHT: SFC LOW THEN TRACKS UP THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/GREEN MOUNTAINS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...500 MB TROUGH ALSO
PIVOTS NORTHWARD BUT APPEARS TO CLOSE OFF BY MONDAY EVENING. WITH
THAT EXPECTED LOW TRACK...IT LEAVES CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT IN THE
WARM SECTOR. FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IF GREATER INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED (GENERALLY IS
HIGHEST IN THE 00Z GFS) IN THIS CORRIDOR. NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
TRACK...MORE STRATIFORM MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. I`VE INDICATED
CHANCE THUNDER FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT IN PROGGED WARM
SECTOR...BUT HAVE OTHERWISE KEPT THUNDER OUT ELSEWHERE WHERE IT`S
LIKELY TO BE MORE RAIN-COOLED/STABLE. CATEGORICAL POPS OFFERED
MONDAY WITH GRADUAL TAPER TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. TEMPS ARE TRICKY/DEPENDENT ON LOW TRACK...BUT LIKELY TO BE
BELOW NORMAL AND CLOSER TO NORMAL IF WARM SECTOR CAN GET
ESTABLISHED. HIGHS IN NORTHERN NY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES
IN A CLOUDY/RAINY DAY...AND CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER 70S IN CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT. QPF MONDAY RANGES FROM LESS THAN A HALF-INCH
FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY... .75-1" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT TO JUST
A TICK OVER AN INCH FOR THE ADIRONDACKS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES FROM THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN.

TUESDAY: UPPER TROUGH EXITS WITH STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTHWEST FLOW...MDT COLD
ADVECTION (850 TEMPS DURING TUESDAY PLUNGE TO +6 TO +8C) AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PRODUCES BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US CENTERED NEAR 80 DEG W WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...THOUGH WEAKENING
WITH RISING HEIGHTS.

THOUGH A SHOWER CAN`T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ANY AFTERNOON DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF TO THE WEST...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SOME INSTABILITY AND SOME QG FORCING.

THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST
WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY
TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH 850 TEMPS ONLY
AROUND 8-10C.

850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY SO THAT BY THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL -
UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT IN
CANADA...BUT PROBABILITIES ONLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. HAVE INCLUDED
MENTION OF VCTS AT NORTHERN NY TAF SITES WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DECREASE THIS EVENING UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.
COULD BE SOME FG/BR LATER TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF CLEARING AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS JUST TO THE NORTH.
BETWEEN 09-12Z RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT INTO
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER
TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER POSSIBLE AT
VERMONT SITES.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS PM. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 KTS
DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 550 AM EDT SUNDAY...A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT AND NOW EXTENDS FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY TO THE EASTERN
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE IS NO IMMEDIATE THREAT OF
LIGHTNING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN...EXPECT THESE STORMS TO APPROACH LAKE
CHAMPLAIN BY MID-MORNING. BOATERS AND OTHERS NEAR THE LAKE SHOULD
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR AS THESE STORMS MOVE
THROUGH...WITH OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS
PRODUCING BRIEFLY LOWERED VISIBILITY...AND ROUGH SEAS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...RJS
MARINE...LOCONTO







000
FXUS61 KBTV 271729
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
129 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY INTO MONDAY. INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A POTENT MID-SUMMER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
MONDAY WITH A WETTING RAINFALL TO THE REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. GRADUALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...EARLY AFTN UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST
TRENDS IN BAND OF RAIN MOVING ACRS EXTREME EASTERN VT AND
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THIS AFTN. I HAVE CUT POPS TO
CHC ACRS ENTIRE CWA AS STEADIER PRECIP WL BE EAST OF OUR CWA VERY
SHORTLY. LATEST LAPS DATA SHOWS SFC INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACRS
NORTHERN NY WITH VALUES BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...ASSOCIATED WITH
SOME CLRING IN THE VIS SATL. THIS HAS HELPED WARM TEMPS INTO THE
70S...WITH DWPTS IN THE MID 60S...CREATING THIS INSTABILITY. THIS
CLEARING AND INSTABILITY WL SHIFT INTO THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT
THIS AFTN...BUT ULVL FORCING IS PRETTY LIMITED. THIS COMBINED WITH
MINIMAL INSTABILITY WL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING THIS AFTN...MAINLY ACRS NORTHERN NY INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT. THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUPPORT
PULSE LIKE ACTIVITY WITH NO REAL ORGANIZATION. WL CONT TO MENTION
CHC POPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL AND KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
70S...WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR 80 POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 437 AM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. MORE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FOR TUESDAY BUT STILL GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNDER A WELL-ADVERTISED 500 MB TROUGH.

TONIGHT: STILL CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM EARLY
EVENING BUT ALREADY LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BECOME EVEN MORE SO BY
DARK. THE STRONG...POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSUMES A
NEGATIVE TILT BY 12Z MONDAY AND INDUCES SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT NEAR
CENTRAL PA LATER TONIGHT. THERE`S SOME QUESTION MARKS AS TO THIS
LOW`S EXACT TRACK ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF POTENTIAL MASS FIELD
CHANGES GIVEN A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
/APPALACHIANS TODAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER AGREEMENT ON A MORE
INTERIOR TRACK (LOW ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION
BY 12Z MONDAY) - AND THERE ARE GOOD SIGNALS IN HIGH RES MODELS OF A
BAND OF MODERATE RAIN ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF SFC LOW`S
TRACK. THAT BAND OF MODERATE RAIN LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN
VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. INITIALLY KEPT
POPS AROUND CHANCE CATEGORY BUT BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD AFTER
MIDNIGHT TO LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LOWS
UNLIKELY TO FALL MUCH UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MAV OR MET MOS GUIDANCE.

MONDAY & MONDAY NIGHT: SFC LOW THEN TRACKS UP THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/GREEN MOUNTAINS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...500 MB TROUGH ALSO
PIVOTS NORTHWARD BUT APPEARS TO CLOSE OFF BY MONDAY EVENING. WITH
THAT EXPECTED LOW TRACK...IT LEAVES CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT IN THE
WARM SECTOR. FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IF GREATER INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED (GENERALLY IS
HIGHEST IN THE 00Z GFS) IN THIS CORRIDOR. NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
TRACK...MORE STRATIFORM MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. I`VE INDICATED
CHANCE THUNDER FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT IN PROGGED WARM
SECTOR...BUT HAVE OTHERWISE KEPT THUNDER OUT ELSEWHERE WHERE IT`S
LIKELY TO BE MORE RAIN-COOLED/STABLE. CATEGORICAL POPS OFFERED
MONDAY WITH GRADUAL TAPER TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. TEMPS ARE TRICKY/DEPENDENT ON LOW TRACK...BUT LIKELY TO BE
BELOW NORMAL AND CLOSER TO NORMAL IF WARM SECTOR CAN GET
ESTABLISHED. HIGHS IN NORTHERN NY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES
IN A CLOUDY/RAINY DAY...AND CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER 70S IN CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT. QPF MONDAY RANGES FROM LESS THAN A HALF-INCH
FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY... .75-1" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT TO JUST
A TICK OVER AN INCH FOR THE ADIRONDACKS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES FROM THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN.

TUESDAY: UPPER TROUGH EXITS WITH STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTHWEST FLOW...MDT COLD
ADVECTION (850 TEMPS DURING TUESDAY PLUNGE TO +6 TO +8C) AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PRODUCES BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US CENTERED NEAR 80 DEG W WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...THOUGH WEAKENING
WITH RISING HEIGHTS.

THOUGH A SHOWER CAN`T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ANY AFTERNOON DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF TO THE WEST...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SOME INSTABILITY AND SOME QG FORCING.

THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST
WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY
TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH 850 TEMPS ONLY
AROUND 8-10C.

850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY SO THAT BY THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL -
UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT IN
CANADA...BUT PROBABILITIES ONLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. HAVE INCLUDED
MENTION OF VCTS AT NORTHERN NY TAF SITES WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DECREASE THIS EVENING UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.
COULD BE SOME FG/BR LATER TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF CLEARING AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS JUST TO THE NORTH.
BETWEEN 09-12Z RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT INTO
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER
TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER POSSIBLE AT
VERMONT SITES.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS PM. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 KTS
DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 550 AM EDT SUNDAY...A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT AND NOW EXTENDS FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY TO THE EASTERN
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE IS NO IMMEDIATE THREAT OF
LIGHTNING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN...EXPECT THESE STORMS TO APPROACH LAKE
CHAMPLAIN BY MID-MORNING. BOATERS AND OTHERS NEAR THE LAKE SHOULD
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR AS THESE STORMS MOVE
THROUGH...WITH OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS
PRODUCING BRIEFLY LOWERED VISIBILITY...AND ROUGH SEAS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...RJS
MARINE...LOCONTO







000
FXUS61 KBTV 271729
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
129 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY INTO MONDAY. INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A POTENT MID-SUMMER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
MONDAY WITH A WETTING RAINFALL TO THE REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. GRADUALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...EARLY AFTN UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST
TRENDS IN BAND OF RAIN MOVING ACRS EXTREME EASTERN VT AND
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THIS AFTN. I HAVE CUT POPS TO
CHC ACRS ENTIRE CWA AS STEADIER PRECIP WL BE EAST OF OUR CWA VERY
SHORTLY. LATEST LAPS DATA SHOWS SFC INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACRS
NORTHERN NY WITH VALUES BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...ASSOCIATED WITH
SOME CLRING IN THE VIS SATL. THIS HAS HELPED WARM TEMPS INTO THE
70S...WITH DWPTS IN THE MID 60S...CREATING THIS INSTABILITY. THIS
CLEARING AND INSTABILITY WL SHIFT INTO THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT
THIS AFTN...BUT ULVL FORCING IS PRETTY LIMITED. THIS COMBINED WITH
MINIMAL INSTABILITY WL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING THIS AFTN...MAINLY ACRS NORTHERN NY INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT. THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUPPORT
PULSE LIKE ACTIVITY WITH NO REAL ORGANIZATION. WL CONT TO MENTION
CHC POPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL AND KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
70S...WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR 80 POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 437 AM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. MORE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FOR TUESDAY BUT STILL GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNDER A WELL-ADVERTISED 500 MB TROUGH.

TONIGHT: STILL CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM EARLY
EVENING BUT ALREADY LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BECOME EVEN MORE SO BY
DARK. THE STRONG...POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSUMES A
NEGATIVE TILT BY 12Z MONDAY AND INDUCES SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT NEAR
CENTRAL PA LATER TONIGHT. THERE`S SOME QUESTION MARKS AS TO THIS
LOW`S EXACT TRACK ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF POTENTIAL MASS FIELD
CHANGES GIVEN A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
/APPALACHIANS TODAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER AGREEMENT ON A MORE
INTERIOR TRACK (LOW ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION
BY 12Z MONDAY) - AND THERE ARE GOOD SIGNALS IN HIGH RES MODELS OF A
BAND OF MODERATE RAIN ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF SFC LOW`S
TRACK. THAT BAND OF MODERATE RAIN LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN
VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. INITIALLY KEPT
POPS AROUND CHANCE CATEGORY BUT BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD AFTER
MIDNIGHT TO LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LOWS
UNLIKELY TO FALL MUCH UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MAV OR MET MOS GUIDANCE.

MONDAY & MONDAY NIGHT: SFC LOW THEN TRACKS UP THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/GREEN MOUNTAINS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...500 MB TROUGH ALSO
PIVOTS NORTHWARD BUT APPEARS TO CLOSE OFF BY MONDAY EVENING. WITH
THAT EXPECTED LOW TRACK...IT LEAVES CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT IN THE
WARM SECTOR. FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IF GREATER INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED (GENERALLY IS
HIGHEST IN THE 00Z GFS) IN THIS CORRIDOR. NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
TRACK...MORE STRATIFORM MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. I`VE INDICATED
CHANCE THUNDER FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT IN PROGGED WARM
SECTOR...BUT HAVE OTHERWISE KEPT THUNDER OUT ELSEWHERE WHERE IT`S
LIKELY TO BE MORE RAIN-COOLED/STABLE. CATEGORICAL POPS OFFERED
MONDAY WITH GRADUAL TAPER TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. TEMPS ARE TRICKY/DEPENDENT ON LOW TRACK...BUT LIKELY TO BE
BELOW NORMAL AND CLOSER TO NORMAL IF WARM SECTOR CAN GET
ESTABLISHED. HIGHS IN NORTHERN NY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES
IN A CLOUDY/RAINY DAY...AND CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER 70S IN CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT. QPF MONDAY RANGES FROM LESS THAN A HALF-INCH
FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY... .75-1" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT TO JUST
A TICK OVER AN INCH FOR THE ADIRONDACKS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES FROM THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN.

TUESDAY: UPPER TROUGH EXITS WITH STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTHWEST FLOW...MDT COLD
ADVECTION (850 TEMPS DURING TUESDAY PLUNGE TO +6 TO +8C) AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PRODUCES BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US CENTERED NEAR 80 DEG W WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...THOUGH WEAKENING
WITH RISING HEIGHTS.

THOUGH A SHOWER CAN`T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ANY AFTERNOON DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF TO THE WEST...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SOME INSTABILITY AND SOME QG FORCING.

THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST
WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY
TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH 850 TEMPS ONLY
AROUND 8-10C.

850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY SO THAT BY THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL -
UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT IN
CANADA...BUT PROBABILITIES ONLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. HAVE INCLUDED
MENTION OF VCTS AT NORTHERN NY TAF SITES WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DECREASE THIS EVENING UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.
COULD BE SOME FG/BR LATER TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF CLEARING AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS JUST TO THE NORTH.
BETWEEN 09-12Z RAIN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT INTO
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER
TO MVFR AREA-WIDE WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. THUNDER POSSIBLE AT
VERMONT SITES.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS PM. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 KTS
DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MON - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 550 AM EDT SUNDAY...A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT AND NOW EXTENDS FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY TO THE EASTERN
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE IS NO IMMEDIATE THREAT OF
LIGHTNING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN...EXPECT THESE STORMS TO APPROACH LAKE
CHAMPLAIN BY MID-MORNING. BOATERS AND OTHERS NEAR THE LAKE SHOULD
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR AS THESE STORMS MOVE
THROUGH...WITH OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS
PRODUCING BRIEFLY LOWERED VISIBILITY...AND ROUGH SEAS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...RJS
MARINE...LOCONTO







000
FXUS61 KALY 271704
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
104 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST NEEDED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
EXCEPT TO LOWER RAIN PROBABILITIES IN SOME AREAS AND SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
IN SOUTHERN AREAS. 12Z AREA SOUNDINGS SHOW RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...BUT BASED ON TRENDS AND THE CONVECTION
THAT EXITED OUR REGION THROUGH THE MORNING...NO REAL TRIGGER TO
INITIATE NEW CONVECTION. ALSO...DRYING ALOFT...SEEN IN UPSTREAM
SOUNDINGS PROBABLY ACTING TO CAP CONVECTION TO SOME DEGREE.

STILL...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY COULD STRENGTHEN AS WE APPROACH THE MAXIMUM
HEATING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME BROAD CONVERGENCE
SEEN IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE REGION IN MESOSCALE
ANALYSES BUT OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM THE CONVECTION THIS
MORNING ARE DIFFICULT TO DETECT. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND BASED ON INSTABILITY...COULD
REACH SEVERE LEVELS...SO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND WILL NOT IMPACT EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HAVE INDICATED
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF FA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY BTWN 04Z
AND 06Z. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MOHAWK VLY
AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

MEANWHILE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCE 0.8 TO 1.8 IN OF QPF BTWN
05UTC TNGT AND 00UTC TUE, SO...FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF
GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE
CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VICINITY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WORD FOR THE EFP IS RETROGRADE.

PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE 500HPA TROF STILL IN PLACE OVER E NA.
GFS/ECMWF BRING YET ANOTHER SHORT WV AROUND BASE OF TROF LATE WED
INTO THUR WITH INCR CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA AGAIN N & W OF ALB. ITS
MORE LIKE SUFFICIENT INSTAB TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHC N&W OF ALB
OVER HIR TRRN WITH DIURNAL CYCLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...AS THE CUTOFF LIFTS NE INTO QB...THE LAST PIECES OF ENERGY
SHIFT THE TROF WEST...CREATE A CUT OFF...THAT RETROGRADES TO THE
OHIO VLY OR MISS VLY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.

THE ONE ITEM OF CONSENSUS WILL BE THE RIDGING OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
AT ALL LEVELS...WITH 500HPA RIDGE RETROGRADING TWRD THE COAST.
WHILE THERE NOT MUCH SFC FLOW OR FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD...BERMUDA HIGH RETROGRESSION RESULTS IN A S-SE FLOW ALOFT AND
INCR MOISTURE...CLOUDS...TEMPS.

OF NOTE ON GEFS PLUMES THERE`S A TENTH OR TWO OF QPF WED NT/THU ON
A FEW MEMBERS AND 3 MEMBERS WITH SOME QPF LATE SUNDAY 8/3 INTO MON
8/4...OTHERWISE ITS FLAT LINED AFTN MON EVNG ON MOST MEMBERS.

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES...PARTLY CLOUDY SKYS...AND SCT
MAINLY AFTN OR EVNG TSTMS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.

VFR/MVFR CONDS WL GIVE WAY TO MVFR/IFR BTWN 12Z AND 17Z AT THE TAF
SITES AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES EAST. FOR
THIS AFT...SINCE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED HAVE LEFT VCSH IN
THE TAFS. LATER TONIGHT A STEADY RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE TONIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTH
TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KALY 271704
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
104 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST NEEDED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
EXCEPT TO LOWER RAIN PROBABILITIES IN SOME AREAS AND SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
IN SOUTHERN AREAS. 12Z AREA SOUNDINGS SHOW RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...BUT BASED ON TRENDS AND THE CONVECTION
THAT EXITED OUR REGION THROUGH THE MORNING...NO REAL TRIGGER TO
INITIATE NEW CONVECTION. ALSO...DRYING ALOFT...SEEN IN UPSTREAM
SOUNDINGS PROBABLY ACTING TO CAP CONVECTION TO SOME DEGREE.

STILL...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY COULD STRENGTHEN AS WE APPROACH THE MAXIMUM
HEATING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME BROAD CONVERGENCE
SEEN IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE REGION IN MESOSCALE
ANALYSES BUT OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM THE CONVECTION THIS
MORNING ARE DIFFICULT TO DETECT. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND BASED ON INSTABILITY...COULD
REACH SEVERE LEVELS...SO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND WILL NOT IMPACT EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HAVE INDICATED
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF FA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY BTWN 04Z
AND 06Z. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MOHAWK VLY
AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

MEANWHILE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCE 0.8 TO 1.8 IN OF QPF BTWN
05UTC TNGT AND 00UTC TUE, SO...FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF
GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE
CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VICINITY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WORD FOR THE EFP IS RETROGRADE.

PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE 500HPA TROF STILL IN PLACE OVER E NA.
GFS/ECMWF BRING YET ANOTHER SHORT WV AROUND BASE OF TROF LATE WED
INTO THUR WITH INCR CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA AGAIN N & W OF ALB. ITS
MORE LIKE SUFFICIENT INSTAB TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHC N&W OF ALB
OVER HIR TRRN WITH DIURNAL CYCLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...AS THE CUTOFF LIFTS NE INTO QB...THE LAST PIECES OF ENERGY
SHIFT THE TROF WEST...CREATE A CUT OFF...THAT RETROGRADES TO THE
OHIO VLY OR MISS VLY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.

THE ONE ITEM OF CONSENSUS WILL BE THE RIDGING OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
AT ALL LEVELS...WITH 500HPA RIDGE RETROGRADING TWRD THE COAST.
WHILE THERE NOT MUCH SFC FLOW OR FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD...BERMUDA HIGH RETROGRESSION RESULTS IN A S-SE FLOW ALOFT AND
INCR MOISTURE...CLOUDS...TEMPS.

OF NOTE ON GEFS PLUMES THERE`S A TENTH OR TWO OF QPF WED NT/THU ON
A FEW MEMBERS AND 3 MEMBERS WITH SOME QPF LATE SUNDAY 8/3 INTO MON
8/4...OTHERWISE ITS FLAT LINED AFTN MON EVNG ON MOST MEMBERS.

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES...PARTLY CLOUDY SKYS...AND SCT
MAINLY AFTN OR EVNG TSTMS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.

VFR/MVFR CONDS WL GIVE WAY TO MVFR/IFR BTWN 12Z AND 17Z AT THE TAF
SITES AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES EAST. FOR
THIS AFT...SINCE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED HAVE LEFT VCSH IN
THE TAFS. LATER TONIGHT A STEADY RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE TONIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTH
TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 271607
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1207 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY INTO MONDAY. INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A POTENT MID-SUMMER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
MONDAY WITH A WETTING RAINFALL TO THE REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. GRADUALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...EARLY AFTN UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST
TRENDS IN BAND OF RAIN MOVING ACRS EXTREME EASTERN VT AND
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THIS AFTN. I HAVE CUT POPS TO
CHC ACRS ENTIRE CWA AS STEADIER PRECIP WL BE EAST OF OUR CWA VERY
SHORTLY. LATEST LAPS DATA SHOWS SFC INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACRS
NORTHERN NY WITH VALUES BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...ASSOCIATED WITH
SOME CLRING IN THE VIS SATL. THIS HAS HELPED WARM TEMPS INTO THE
70S...WITH DWPTS IN THE MID 60S...CREATING THIS INSTABILITY. THIS
CLEARING AND INSTABILITY WL SHIFT INTO THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT
THIS AFTN...BUT ULVL FORCING IS PRETTY LIMITED. THIS COMBINED WITH
MINIMAL INSTABILITY WL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING THIS AFTN...MAINLY ACRS NORTHERN NY INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT. THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUPPORT
PULSE LIKE ACTIVITY WITH NO REAL ORGANIZATION. WL CONT TO MENTION
CHC POPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL AND KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
70S...WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR 80 POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 437 AM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. MORE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FOR TUESDAY BUT STILL GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNDER A WELL-ADVERTISED 500 MB TROUGH.

TONIGHT: STILL CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM EARLY
EVENING BUT ALREADY LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BECOME EVEN MORE SO BY
DARK. THE STRONG...POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSUMES A
NEGATIVE TILT BY 12Z MONDAY AND INDUCES SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT NEAR
CENTRAL PA LATER TONIGHT. THERE`S SOME QUESTION MARKS AS TO THIS
LOW`S EXACT TRACK ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF POTENTIAL MASS FIELD
CHANGES GIVEN A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
/APPALACHIANS TODAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER AGREEMENT ON A MORE
INTERIOR TRACK (LOW ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION
BY 12Z MONDAY) - AND THERE ARE GOOD SIGNALS IN HIGH RES MODELS OF A
BAND OF MODERATE RAIN ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF SFC LOW`S
TRACK. THAT BAND OF MODERATE RAIN LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN
VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. INITIALLY KEPT
POPS AROUND CHANCE CATEGORY BUT BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD AFTER
MIDNIGHT TO LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LOWS
UNLIKELY TO FALL MUCH UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MAV OR MET MOS GUIDANCE.

MONDAY & MONDAY NIGHT: SFC LOW THEN TRACKS UP THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/GREEN MOUNTAINS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...500 MB TROUGH ALSO
PIVOTS NORTHWARD BUT APPEARS TO CLOSE OFF BY MONDAY EVENING. WITH
THAT EXPECTED LOW TRACK...IT LEAVES CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT IN THE
WARM SECTOR. FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IF GREATER INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED (GENERALLY IS
HIGHEST IN THE 00Z GFS) IN THIS CORRIDOR. NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
TRACK...MORE STRATIFORM MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. I`VE INDICATED
CHANCE THUNDER FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT IN PROGGED WARM
SECTOR...BUT HAVE OTHERWISE KEPT THUNDER OUT ELSEWHERE WHERE IT`S
LIKELY TO BE MORE RAIN-COOLED/STABLE. CATEGORICAL POPS OFFERED
MONDAY WITH GRADUAL TAPER TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. TEMPS ARE TRICKY/DEPENDENT ON LOW TRACK...BUT LIKELY TO BE
BELOW NORMAL AND CLOSER TO NORMAL IF WARM SECTOR CAN GET
ESTABLISHED. HIGHS IN NORTHERN NY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES
IN A CLOUDY/RAINY DAY...AND CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER 70S IN CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT. QPF MONDAY RANGES FROM LESS THAN A HALF-INCH
FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY... .75-1" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT TO JUST
A TICK OVER AN INCH FOR THE ADIRONDACKS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES FROM THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN.

TUESDAY: UPPER TROUGH EXITS WITH STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTHWEST FLOW...MDT COLD
ADVECTION (850 TEMPS DURING TUESDAY PLUNGE TO +6 TO +8C) AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PRODUCES BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US CENTERED NEAR 80 DEG W WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...THOUGH WEAKENING
WITH RISING HEIGHTS.

THOUGH A SHOWER CAN`T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ANY AFTERNOON DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF TO THE WEST...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SOME INSTABILITY AND SOME QG FORCING.

THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST
WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY
TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH 850 TEMPS ONLY
AROUND 8-10C.

850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY SO THAT BY THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL -
UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY..MVFR LCL IFR 12-16Z THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A WEAK WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE NEAR 80 PERCENT THROUGH ABOUT 16Z TODAY THEN
DECREASE.

CHANCES OF THUNDER INCREASING ESPECIALLY PBG BTV RUT MPV MOVING
WEST TO EAST 12-16Z.

VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT SOME BRIEF
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

PERIODS OF MVFR ARE LIKELY ON BACK SIDE OF RAIN SHOWERS...LASTING
UNTIL LATE MORNING WHEN SHOWER THREAT DECREASES. CEILINGS LIFT
BACK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
AHEAD OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT IN CANADA BUT POBABILITIES
ONLY 20-30 PERCENT SO HAVE LEFT OUT ALL BUT SLK WHERE TERRAIN MAY
HELP.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DROP THIS EVENING UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.
COULD BE SOME FG/BR CHANCES LATER TONIGHT IF CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS TO OUR NORTH WHEN 09-12Z
MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER RETURN ALONG WITH A MVFR/IFR.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MON - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY SLK/MSS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 550 AM EDT SUNDAY...A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT AND NOW EXTENDS FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY TO THE EASTERN
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE IS NO IMMEDIATE THREAT OF
LIGHTNING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN...EXPECT THESE STORMS TO APPROACH LAKE
CHAMPLAIN BY MID-MORNING. BOATERS AND OTHERS NEAR THE LAKE SHOULD
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR AS THESE STORMS MOVE
THROUGH...WITH OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS
PRODUCING BRIEFLY LOWERED VISIBILITY...AND ROUGH SEAS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
MARINE...LOCONTO







000
FXUS61 KBTV 271607
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1207 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY INTO MONDAY. INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A POTENT MID-SUMMER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
MONDAY WITH A WETTING RAINFALL TO THE REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. GRADUALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...EARLY AFTN UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST
TRENDS IN BAND OF RAIN MOVING ACRS EXTREME EASTERN VT AND
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THIS AFTN. I HAVE CUT POPS TO
CHC ACRS ENTIRE CWA AS STEADIER PRECIP WL BE EAST OF OUR CWA VERY
SHORTLY. LATEST LAPS DATA SHOWS SFC INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACRS
NORTHERN NY WITH VALUES BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...ASSOCIATED WITH
SOME CLRING IN THE VIS SATL. THIS HAS HELPED WARM TEMPS INTO THE
70S...WITH DWPTS IN THE MID 60S...CREATING THIS INSTABILITY. THIS
CLEARING AND INSTABILITY WL SHIFT INTO THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT
THIS AFTN...BUT ULVL FORCING IS PRETTY LIMITED. THIS COMBINED WITH
MINIMAL INSTABILITY WL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING THIS AFTN...MAINLY ACRS NORTHERN NY INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT. THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUPPORT
PULSE LIKE ACTIVITY WITH NO REAL ORGANIZATION. WL CONT TO MENTION
CHC POPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL AND KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
70S...WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR 80 POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 437 AM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. MORE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FOR TUESDAY BUT STILL GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNDER A WELL-ADVERTISED 500 MB TROUGH.

TONIGHT: STILL CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM EARLY
EVENING BUT ALREADY LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BECOME EVEN MORE SO BY
DARK. THE STRONG...POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSUMES A
NEGATIVE TILT BY 12Z MONDAY AND INDUCES SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT NEAR
CENTRAL PA LATER TONIGHT. THERE`S SOME QUESTION MARKS AS TO THIS
LOW`S EXACT TRACK ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF POTENTIAL MASS FIELD
CHANGES GIVEN A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
/APPALACHIANS TODAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER AGREEMENT ON A MORE
INTERIOR TRACK (LOW ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION
BY 12Z MONDAY) - AND THERE ARE GOOD SIGNALS IN HIGH RES MODELS OF A
BAND OF MODERATE RAIN ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF SFC LOW`S
TRACK. THAT BAND OF MODERATE RAIN LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN
VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. INITIALLY KEPT
POPS AROUND CHANCE CATEGORY BUT BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD AFTER
MIDNIGHT TO LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LOWS
UNLIKELY TO FALL MUCH UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MAV OR MET MOS GUIDANCE.

MONDAY & MONDAY NIGHT: SFC LOW THEN TRACKS UP THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/GREEN MOUNTAINS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...500 MB TROUGH ALSO
PIVOTS NORTHWARD BUT APPEARS TO CLOSE OFF BY MONDAY EVENING. WITH
THAT EXPECTED LOW TRACK...IT LEAVES CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT IN THE
WARM SECTOR. FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IF GREATER INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED (GENERALLY IS
HIGHEST IN THE 00Z GFS) IN THIS CORRIDOR. NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
TRACK...MORE STRATIFORM MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. I`VE INDICATED
CHANCE THUNDER FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT IN PROGGED WARM
SECTOR...BUT HAVE OTHERWISE KEPT THUNDER OUT ELSEWHERE WHERE IT`S
LIKELY TO BE MORE RAIN-COOLED/STABLE. CATEGORICAL POPS OFFERED
MONDAY WITH GRADUAL TAPER TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. TEMPS ARE TRICKY/DEPENDENT ON LOW TRACK...BUT LIKELY TO BE
BELOW NORMAL AND CLOSER TO NORMAL IF WARM SECTOR CAN GET
ESTABLISHED. HIGHS IN NORTHERN NY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES
IN A CLOUDY/RAINY DAY...AND CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER 70S IN CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT. QPF MONDAY RANGES FROM LESS THAN A HALF-INCH
FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY... .75-1" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT TO JUST
A TICK OVER AN INCH FOR THE ADIRONDACKS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES FROM THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN.

TUESDAY: UPPER TROUGH EXITS WITH STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTHWEST FLOW...MDT COLD
ADVECTION (850 TEMPS DURING TUESDAY PLUNGE TO +6 TO +8C) AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PRODUCES BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US CENTERED NEAR 80 DEG W WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...THOUGH WEAKENING
WITH RISING HEIGHTS.

THOUGH A SHOWER CAN`T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ANY AFTERNOON DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF TO THE WEST...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SOME INSTABILITY AND SOME QG FORCING.

THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST
WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY
TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH 850 TEMPS ONLY
AROUND 8-10C.

850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY SO THAT BY THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL -
UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY..MVFR LCL IFR 12-16Z THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A WEAK WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE NEAR 80 PERCENT THROUGH ABOUT 16Z TODAY THEN
DECREASE.

CHANCES OF THUNDER INCREASING ESPECIALLY PBG BTV RUT MPV MOVING
WEST TO EAST 12-16Z.

VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT SOME BRIEF
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

PERIODS OF MVFR ARE LIKELY ON BACK SIDE OF RAIN SHOWERS...LASTING
UNTIL LATE MORNING WHEN SHOWER THREAT DECREASES. CEILINGS LIFT
BACK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
AHEAD OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT IN CANADA BUT POBABILITIES
ONLY 20-30 PERCENT SO HAVE LEFT OUT ALL BUT SLK WHERE TERRAIN MAY
HELP.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DROP THIS EVENING UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.
COULD BE SOME FG/BR CHANCES LATER TONIGHT IF CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS TO OUR NORTH WHEN 09-12Z
MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER RETURN ALONG WITH A MVFR/IFR.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MON - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY SLK/MSS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 550 AM EDT SUNDAY...A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT AND NOW EXTENDS FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY TO THE EASTERN
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE IS NO IMMEDIATE THREAT OF
LIGHTNING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN...EXPECT THESE STORMS TO APPROACH LAKE
CHAMPLAIN BY MID-MORNING. BOATERS AND OTHERS NEAR THE LAKE SHOULD
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR AS THESE STORMS MOVE
THROUGH...WITH OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS
PRODUCING BRIEFLY LOWERED VISIBILITY...AND ROUGH SEAS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
MARINE...LOCONTO







000
FXUS61 KBTV 271607
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1207 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY INTO MONDAY. INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A POTENT MID-SUMMER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
MONDAY WITH A WETTING RAINFALL TO THE REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. GRADUALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...EARLY AFTN UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST
TRENDS IN BAND OF RAIN MOVING ACRS EXTREME EASTERN VT AND
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THIS AFTN. I HAVE CUT POPS TO
CHC ACRS ENTIRE CWA AS STEADIER PRECIP WL BE EAST OF OUR CWA VERY
SHORTLY. LATEST LAPS DATA SHOWS SFC INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACRS
NORTHERN NY WITH VALUES BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...ASSOCIATED WITH
SOME CLRING IN THE VIS SATL. THIS HAS HELPED WARM TEMPS INTO THE
70S...WITH DWPTS IN THE MID 60S...CREATING THIS INSTABILITY. THIS
CLEARING AND INSTABILITY WL SHIFT INTO THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT
THIS AFTN...BUT ULVL FORCING IS PRETTY LIMITED. THIS COMBINED WITH
MINIMAL INSTABILITY WL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING THIS AFTN...MAINLY ACRS NORTHERN NY INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT. THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUPPORT
PULSE LIKE ACTIVITY WITH NO REAL ORGANIZATION. WL CONT TO MENTION
CHC POPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL AND KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
70S...WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR 80 POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 437 AM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. MORE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FOR TUESDAY BUT STILL GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNDER A WELL-ADVERTISED 500 MB TROUGH.

TONIGHT: STILL CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM EARLY
EVENING BUT ALREADY LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BECOME EVEN MORE SO BY
DARK. THE STRONG...POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSUMES A
NEGATIVE TILT BY 12Z MONDAY AND INDUCES SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT NEAR
CENTRAL PA LATER TONIGHT. THERE`S SOME QUESTION MARKS AS TO THIS
LOW`S EXACT TRACK ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF POTENTIAL MASS FIELD
CHANGES GIVEN A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
/APPALACHIANS TODAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER AGREEMENT ON A MORE
INTERIOR TRACK (LOW ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION
BY 12Z MONDAY) - AND THERE ARE GOOD SIGNALS IN HIGH RES MODELS OF A
BAND OF MODERATE RAIN ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF SFC LOW`S
TRACK. THAT BAND OF MODERATE RAIN LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN
VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. INITIALLY KEPT
POPS AROUND CHANCE CATEGORY BUT BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD AFTER
MIDNIGHT TO LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LOWS
UNLIKELY TO FALL MUCH UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MAV OR MET MOS GUIDANCE.

MONDAY & MONDAY NIGHT: SFC LOW THEN TRACKS UP THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/GREEN MOUNTAINS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...500 MB TROUGH ALSO
PIVOTS NORTHWARD BUT APPEARS TO CLOSE OFF BY MONDAY EVENING. WITH
THAT EXPECTED LOW TRACK...IT LEAVES CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT IN THE
WARM SECTOR. FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IF GREATER INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED (GENERALLY IS
HIGHEST IN THE 00Z GFS) IN THIS CORRIDOR. NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
TRACK...MORE STRATIFORM MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. I`VE INDICATED
CHANCE THUNDER FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT IN PROGGED WARM
SECTOR...BUT HAVE OTHERWISE KEPT THUNDER OUT ELSEWHERE WHERE IT`S
LIKELY TO BE MORE RAIN-COOLED/STABLE. CATEGORICAL POPS OFFERED
MONDAY WITH GRADUAL TAPER TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. TEMPS ARE TRICKY/DEPENDENT ON LOW TRACK...BUT LIKELY TO BE
BELOW NORMAL AND CLOSER TO NORMAL IF WARM SECTOR CAN GET
ESTABLISHED. HIGHS IN NORTHERN NY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES
IN A CLOUDY/RAINY DAY...AND CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER 70S IN CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT. QPF MONDAY RANGES FROM LESS THAN A HALF-INCH
FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY... .75-1" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT TO JUST
A TICK OVER AN INCH FOR THE ADIRONDACKS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES FROM THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN.

TUESDAY: UPPER TROUGH EXITS WITH STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTHWEST FLOW...MDT COLD
ADVECTION (850 TEMPS DURING TUESDAY PLUNGE TO +6 TO +8C) AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PRODUCES BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US CENTERED NEAR 80 DEG W WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...THOUGH WEAKENING
WITH RISING HEIGHTS.

THOUGH A SHOWER CAN`T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ANY AFTERNOON DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF TO THE WEST...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SOME INSTABILITY AND SOME QG FORCING.

THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST
WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY
TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH 850 TEMPS ONLY
AROUND 8-10C.

850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY SO THAT BY THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL -
UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY..MVFR LCL IFR 12-16Z THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A WEAK WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE NEAR 80 PERCENT THROUGH ABOUT 16Z TODAY THEN
DECREASE.

CHANCES OF THUNDER INCREASING ESPECIALLY PBG BTV RUT MPV MOVING
WEST TO EAST 12-16Z.

VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT SOME BRIEF
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

PERIODS OF MVFR ARE LIKELY ON BACK SIDE OF RAIN SHOWERS...LASTING
UNTIL LATE MORNING WHEN SHOWER THREAT DECREASES. CEILINGS LIFT
BACK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
AHEAD OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT IN CANADA BUT POBABILITIES
ONLY 20-30 PERCENT SO HAVE LEFT OUT ALL BUT SLK WHERE TERRAIN MAY
HELP.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DROP THIS EVENING UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.
COULD BE SOME FG/BR CHANCES LATER TONIGHT IF CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS TO OUR NORTH WHEN 09-12Z
MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER RETURN ALONG WITH A MVFR/IFR.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MON - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY SLK/MSS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 550 AM EDT SUNDAY...A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT AND NOW EXTENDS FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY TO THE EASTERN
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE IS NO IMMEDIATE THREAT OF
LIGHTNING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN...EXPECT THESE STORMS TO APPROACH LAKE
CHAMPLAIN BY MID-MORNING. BOATERS AND OTHERS NEAR THE LAKE SHOULD
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR AS THESE STORMS MOVE
THROUGH...WITH OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS
PRODUCING BRIEFLY LOWERED VISIBILITY...AND ROUGH SEAS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
MARINE...LOCONTO







000
FXUS61 KBTV 271607
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1207 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY INTO MONDAY. INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A POTENT MID-SUMMER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
MONDAY WITH A WETTING RAINFALL TO THE REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. GRADUALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...EARLY AFTN UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST
TRENDS IN BAND OF RAIN MOVING ACRS EXTREME EASTERN VT AND
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THIS AFTN. I HAVE CUT POPS TO
CHC ACRS ENTIRE CWA AS STEADIER PRECIP WL BE EAST OF OUR CWA VERY
SHORTLY. LATEST LAPS DATA SHOWS SFC INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACRS
NORTHERN NY WITH VALUES BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...ASSOCIATED WITH
SOME CLRING IN THE VIS SATL. THIS HAS HELPED WARM TEMPS INTO THE
70S...WITH DWPTS IN THE MID 60S...CREATING THIS INSTABILITY. THIS
CLEARING AND INSTABILITY WL SHIFT INTO THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT
THIS AFTN...BUT ULVL FORCING IS PRETTY LIMITED. THIS COMBINED WITH
MINIMAL INSTABILITY WL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING THIS AFTN...MAINLY ACRS NORTHERN NY INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT. THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUPPORT
PULSE LIKE ACTIVITY WITH NO REAL ORGANIZATION. WL CONT TO MENTION
CHC POPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL AND KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
70S...WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR 80 POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 437 AM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. MORE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FOR TUESDAY BUT STILL GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNDER A WELL-ADVERTISED 500 MB TROUGH.

TONIGHT: STILL CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM EARLY
EVENING BUT ALREADY LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BECOME EVEN MORE SO BY
DARK. THE STRONG...POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSUMES A
NEGATIVE TILT BY 12Z MONDAY AND INDUCES SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT NEAR
CENTRAL PA LATER TONIGHT. THERE`S SOME QUESTION MARKS AS TO THIS
LOW`S EXACT TRACK ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF POTENTIAL MASS FIELD
CHANGES GIVEN A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
/APPALACHIANS TODAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER AGREEMENT ON A MORE
INTERIOR TRACK (LOW ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION
BY 12Z MONDAY) - AND THERE ARE GOOD SIGNALS IN HIGH RES MODELS OF A
BAND OF MODERATE RAIN ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF SFC LOW`S
TRACK. THAT BAND OF MODERATE RAIN LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN
VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. INITIALLY KEPT
POPS AROUND CHANCE CATEGORY BUT BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD AFTER
MIDNIGHT TO LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LOWS
UNLIKELY TO FALL MUCH UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MAV OR MET MOS GUIDANCE.

MONDAY & MONDAY NIGHT: SFC LOW THEN TRACKS UP THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/GREEN MOUNTAINS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...500 MB TROUGH ALSO
PIVOTS NORTHWARD BUT APPEARS TO CLOSE OFF BY MONDAY EVENING. WITH
THAT EXPECTED LOW TRACK...IT LEAVES CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT IN THE
WARM SECTOR. FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IF GREATER INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED (GENERALLY IS
HIGHEST IN THE 00Z GFS) IN THIS CORRIDOR. NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
TRACK...MORE STRATIFORM MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. I`VE INDICATED
CHANCE THUNDER FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT IN PROGGED WARM
SECTOR...BUT HAVE OTHERWISE KEPT THUNDER OUT ELSEWHERE WHERE IT`S
LIKELY TO BE MORE RAIN-COOLED/STABLE. CATEGORICAL POPS OFFERED
MONDAY WITH GRADUAL TAPER TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. TEMPS ARE TRICKY/DEPENDENT ON LOW TRACK...BUT LIKELY TO BE
BELOW NORMAL AND CLOSER TO NORMAL IF WARM SECTOR CAN GET
ESTABLISHED. HIGHS IN NORTHERN NY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES
IN A CLOUDY/RAINY DAY...AND CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER 70S IN CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT. QPF MONDAY RANGES FROM LESS THAN A HALF-INCH
FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY... .75-1" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT TO JUST
A TICK OVER AN INCH FOR THE ADIRONDACKS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES FROM THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN.

TUESDAY: UPPER TROUGH EXITS WITH STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTHWEST FLOW...MDT COLD
ADVECTION (850 TEMPS DURING TUESDAY PLUNGE TO +6 TO +8C) AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PRODUCES BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US CENTERED NEAR 80 DEG W WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...THOUGH WEAKENING
WITH RISING HEIGHTS.

THOUGH A SHOWER CAN`T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ANY AFTERNOON DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF TO THE WEST...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SOME INSTABILITY AND SOME QG FORCING.

THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST
WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY
TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH 850 TEMPS ONLY
AROUND 8-10C.

850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY SO THAT BY THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL -
UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY..MVFR LCL IFR 12-16Z THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A WEAK WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE NEAR 80 PERCENT THROUGH ABOUT 16Z TODAY THEN
DECREASE.

CHANCES OF THUNDER INCREASING ESPECIALLY PBG BTV RUT MPV MOVING
WEST TO EAST 12-16Z.

VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT SOME BRIEF
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

PERIODS OF MVFR ARE LIKELY ON BACK SIDE OF RAIN SHOWERS...LASTING
UNTIL LATE MORNING WHEN SHOWER THREAT DECREASES. CEILINGS LIFT
BACK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
AHEAD OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT IN CANADA BUT POBABILITIES
ONLY 20-30 PERCENT SO HAVE LEFT OUT ALL BUT SLK WHERE TERRAIN MAY
HELP.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DROP THIS EVENING UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.
COULD BE SOME FG/BR CHANCES LATER TONIGHT IF CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS TO OUR NORTH WHEN 09-12Z
MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER RETURN ALONG WITH A MVFR/IFR.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MON - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY SLK/MSS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 550 AM EDT SUNDAY...A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT AND NOW EXTENDS FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY TO THE EASTERN
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE IS NO IMMEDIATE THREAT OF
LIGHTNING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN...EXPECT THESE STORMS TO APPROACH LAKE
CHAMPLAIN BY MID-MORNING. BOATERS AND OTHERS NEAR THE LAKE SHOULD
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR AS THESE STORMS MOVE
THROUGH...WITH OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS
PRODUCING BRIEFLY LOWERED VISIBILITY...AND ROUGH SEAS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
MARINE...LOCONTO







000
FXUS61 KBTV 271607
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1207 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY INTO MONDAY. INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A POTENT MID-SUMMER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
MONDAY WITH A WETTING RAINFALL TO THE REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. GRADUALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...EARLY AFTN UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST
TRENDS IN BAND OF RAIN MOVING ACRS EXTREME EASTERN VT AND
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THIS AFTN. I HAVE CUT POPS TO
CHC ACRS ENTIRE CWA AS STEADIER PRECIP WL BE EAST OF OUR CWA VERY
SHORTLY. LATEST LAPS DATA SHOWS SFC INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACRS
NORTHERN NY WITH VALUES BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...ASSOCIATED WITH
SOME CLRING IN THE VIS SATL. THIS HAS HELPED WARM TEMPS INTO THE
70S...WITH DWPTS IN THE MID 60S...CREATING THIS INSTABILITY. THIS
CLEARING AND INSTABILITY WL SHIFT INTO THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT
THIS AFTN...BUT ULVL FORCING IS PRETTY LIMITED. THIS COMBINED WITH
MINIMAL INSTABILITY WL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING THIS AFTN...MAINLY ACRS NORTHERN NY INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT. THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUPPORT
PULSE LIKE ACTIVITY WITH NO REAL ORGANIZATION. WL CONT TO MENTION
CHC POPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL AND KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
70S...WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR 80 POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 437 AM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. MORE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FOR TUESDAY BUT STILL GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNDER A WELL-ADVERTISED 500 MB TROUGH.

TONIGHT: STILL CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM EARLY
EVENING BUT ALREADY LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BECOME EVEN MORE SO BY
DARK. THE STRONG...POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSUMES A
NEGATIVE TILT BY 12Z MONDAY AND INDUCES SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT NEAR
CENTRAL PA LATER TONIGHT. THERE`S SOME QUESTION MARKS AS TO THIS
LOW`S EXACT TRACK ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF POTENTIAL MASS FIELD
CHANGES GIVEN A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
/APPALACHIANS TODAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER AGREEMENT ON A MORE
INTERIOR TRACK (LOW ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION
BY 12Z MONDAY) - AND THERE ARE GOOD SIGNALS IN HIGH RES MODELS OF A
BAND OF MODERATE RAIN ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF SFC LOW`S
TRACK. THAT BAND OF MODERATE RAIN LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN
VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. INITIALLY KEPT
POPS AROUND CHANCE CATEGORY BUT BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD AFTER
MIDNIGHT TO LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LOWS
UNLIKELY TO FALL MUCH UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MAV OR MET MOS GUIDANCE.

MONDAY & MONDAY NIGHT: SFC LOW THEN TRACKS UP THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/GREEN MOUNTAINS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...500 MB TROUGH ALSO
PIVOTS NORTHWARD BUT APPEARS TO CLOSE OFF BY MONDAY EVENING. WITH
THAT EXPECTED LOW TRACK...IT LEAVES CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT IN THE
WARM SECTOR. FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IF GREATER INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED (GENERALLY IS
HIGHEST IN THE 00Z GFS) IN THIS CORRIDOR. NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
TRACK...MORE STRATIFORM MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. I`VE INDICATED
CHANCE THUNDER FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT IN PROGGED WARM
SECTOR...BUT HAVE OTHERWISE KEPT THUNDER OUT ELSEWHERE WHERE IT`S
LIKELY TO BE MORE RAIN-COOLED/STABLE. CATEGORICAL POPS OFFERED
MONDAY WITH GRADUAL TAPER TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. TEMPS ARE TRICKY/DEPENDENT ON LOW TRACK...BUT LIKELY TO BE
BELOW NORMAL AND CLOSER TO NORMAL IF WARM SECTOR CAN GET
ESTABLISHED. HIGHS IN NORTHERN NY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES
IN A CLOUDY/RAINY DAY...AND CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER 70S IN CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT. QPF MONDAY RANGES FROM LESS THAN A HALF-INCH
FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY... .75-1" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT TO JUST
A TICK OVER AN INCH FOR THE ADIRONDACKS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES FROM THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN.

TUESDAY: UPPER TROUGH EXITS WITH STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTHWEST FLOW...MDT COLD
ADVECTION (850 TEMPS DURING TUESDAY PLUNGE TO +6 TO +8C) AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PRODUCES BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US CENTERED NEAR 80 DEG W WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...THOUGH WEAKENING
WITH RISING HEIGHTS.

THOUGH A SHOWER CAN`T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ANY AFTERNOON DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF TO THE WEST...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SOME INSTABILITY AND SOME QG FORCING.

THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST
WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY
TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH 850 TEMPS ONLY
AROUND 8-10C.

850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY SO THAT BY THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL -
UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY..MVFR LCL IFR 12-16Z THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A WEAK WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE NEAR 80 PERCENT THROUGH ABOUT 16Z TODAY THEN
DECREASE.

CHANCES OF THUNDER INCREASING ESPECIALLY PBG BTV RUT MPV MOVING
WEST TO EAST 12-16Z.

VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT SOME BRIEF
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

PERIODS OF MVFR ARE LIKELY ON BACK SIDE OF RAIN SHOWERS...LASTING
UNTIL LATE MORNING WHEN SHOWER THREAT DECREASES. CEILINGS LIFT
BACK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
AHEAD OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT IN CANADA BUT POBABILITIES
ONLY 20-30 PERCENT SO HAVE LEFT OUT ALL BUT SLK WHERE TERRAIN MAY
HELP.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DROP THIS EVENING UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.
COULD BE SOME FG/BR CHANCES LATER TONIGHT IF CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS TO OUR NORTH WHEN 09-12Z
MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER RETURN ALONG WITH A MVFR/IFR.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MON - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY SLK/MSS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 550 AM EDT SUNDAY...A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT AND NOW EXTENDS FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY TO THE EASTERN
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE IS NO IMMEDIATE THREAT OF
LIGHTNING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN...EXPECT THESE STORMS TO APPROACH LAKE
CHAMPLAIN BY MID-MORNING. BOATERS AND OTHERS NEAR THE LAKE SHOULD
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR AS THESE STORMS MOVE
THROUGH...WITH OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS
PRODUCING BRIEFLY LOWERED VISIBILITY...AND ROUGH SEAS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
MARINE...LOCONTO







000
FXUS61 KBTV 271607
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1207 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY INTO MONDAY. INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A POTENT MID-SUMMER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
MONDAY WITH A WETTING RAINFALL TO THE REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. GRADUALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY...EARLY AFTN UPDATE TO CAPTURE LATEST
TRENDS IN BAND OF RAIN MOVING ACRS EXTREME EASTERN VT AND
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THIS AFTN. I HAVE CUT POPS TO
CHC ACRS ENTIRE CWA AS STEADIER PRECIP WL BE EAST OF OUR CWA VERY
SHORTLY. LATEST LAPS DATA SHOWS SFC INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACRS
NORTHERN NY WITH VALUES BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG...ASSOCIATED WITH
SOME CLRING IN THE VIS SATL. THIS HAS HELPED WARM TEMPS INTO THE
70S...WITH DWPTS IN THE MID 60S...CREATING THIS INSTABILITY. THIS
CLEARING AND INSTABILITY WL SHIFT INTO THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT
THIS AFTN...BUT ULVL FORCING IS PRETTY LIMITED. THIS COMBINED WITH
MINIMAL INSTABILITY WL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING THIS AFTN...MAINLY ACRS NORTHERN NY INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT. THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUPPORT
PULSE LIKE ACTIVITY WITH NO REAL ORGANIZATION. WL CONT TO MENTION
CHC POPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL AND KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
70S...WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR 80 POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 437 AM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. MORE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FOR TUESDAY BUT STILL GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNDER A WELL-ADVERTISED 500 MB TROUGH.

TONIGHT: STILL CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM EARLY
EVENING BUT ALREADY LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BECOME EVEN MORE SO BY
DARK. THE STRONG...POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSUMES A
NEGATIVE TILT BY 12Z MONDAY AND INDUCES SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT NEAR
CENTRAL PA LATER TONIGHT. THERE`S SOME QUESTION MARKS AS TO THIS
LOW`S EXACT TRACK ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF POTENTIAL MASS FIELD
CHANGES GIVEN A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
/APPALACHIANS TODAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER AGREEMENT ON A MORE
INTERIOR TRACK (LOW ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION
BY 12Z MONDAY) - AND THERE ARE GOOD SIGNALS IN HIGH RES MODELS OF A
BAND OF MODERATE RAIN ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF SFC LOW`S
TRACK. THAT BAND OF MODERATE RAIN LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN
VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. INITIALLY KEPT
POPS AROUND CHANCE CATEGORY BUT BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD AFTER
MIDNIGHT TO LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LOWS
UNLIKELY TO FALL MUCH UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MAV OR MET MOS GUIDANCE.

MONDAY & MONDAY NIGHT: SFC LOW THEN TRACKS UP THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/GREEN MOUNTAINS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...500 MB TROUGH ALSO
PIVOTS NORTHWARD BUT APPEARS TO CLOSE OFF BY MONDAY EVENING. WITH
THAT EXPECTED LOW TRACK...IT LEAVES CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT IN THE
WARM SECTOR. FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IF GREATER INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED (GENERALLY IS
HIGHEST IN THE 00Z GFS) IN THIS CORRIDOR. NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
TRACK...MORE STRATIFORM MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. I`VE INDICATED
CHANCE THUNDER FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT IN PROGGED WARM
SECTOR...BUT HAVE OTHERWISE KEPT THUNDER OUT ELSEWHERE WHERE IT`S
LIKELY TO BE MORE RAIN-COOLED/STABLE. CATEGORICAL POPS OFFERED
MONDAY WITH GRADUAL TAPER TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. TEMPS ARE TRICKY/DEPENDENT ON LOW TRACK...BUT LIKELY TO BE
BELOW NORMAL AND CLOSER TO NORMAL IF WARM SECTOR CAN GET
ESTABLISHED. HIGHS IN NORTHERN NY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES
IN A CLOUDY/RAINY DAY...AND CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER 70S IN CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT. QPF MONDAY RANGES FROM LESS THAN A HALF-INCH
FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY... .75-1" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT TO JUST
A TICK OVER AN INCH FOR THE ADIRONDACKS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES FROM THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN.

TUESDAY: UPPER TROUGH EXITS WITH STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTHWEST FLOW...MDT COLD
ADVECTION (850 TEMPS DURING TUESDAY PLUNGE TO +6 TO +8C) AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PRODUCES BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US CENTERED NEAR 80 DEG W WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...THOUGH WEAKENING
WITH RISING HEIGHTS.

THOUGH A SHOWER CAN`T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ANY AFTERNOON DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF TO THE WEST...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SOME INSTABILITY AND SOME QG FORCING.

THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST
WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY
TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH 850 TEMPS ONLY
AROUND 8-10C.

850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY SO THAT BY THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL -
UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY..MVFR LCL IFR 12-16Z THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A WEAK WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE NEAR 80 PERCENT THROUGH ABOUT 16Z TODAY THEN
DECREASE.

CHANCES OF THUNDER INCREASING ESPECIALLY PBG BTV RUT MPV MOVING
WEST TO EAST 12-16Z.

VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT SOME BRIEF
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

PERIODS OF MVFR ARE LIKELY ON BACK SIDE OF RAIN SHOWERS...LASTING
UNTIL LATE MORNING WHEN SHOWER THREAT DECREASES. CEILINGS LIFT
BACK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
AHEAD OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT IN CANADA BUT POBABILITIES
ONLY 20-30 PERCENT SO HAVE LEFT OUT ALL BUT SLK WHERE TERRAIN MAY
HELP.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DROP THIS EVENING UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.
COULD BE SOME FG/BR CHANCES LATER TONIGHT IF CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS TO OUR NORTH WHEN 09-12Z
MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER RETURN ALONG WITH A MVFR/IFR.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MON - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY SLK/MSS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 550 AM EDT SUNDAY...A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT AND NOW EXTENDS FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY TO THE EASTERN
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE IS NO IMMEDIATE THREAT OF
LIGHTNING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN...EXPECT THESE STORMS TO APPROACH LAKE
CHAMPLAIN BY MID-MORNING. BOATERS AND OTHERS NEAR THE LAKE SHOULD
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR AS THESE STORMS MOVE
THROUGH...WITH OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS
PRODUCING BRIEFLY LOWERED VISIBILITY...AND ROUGH SEAS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
MARINE...LOCONTO








000
FXUS61 KALY 271430
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1030 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT...MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOW SHIFTED EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND
WILL IMPACT THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTINCT SHORT
WAVE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS EVIDENT IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS ACTIVITY IS TIED TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SO
LIGHTNING AND DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS ALTHOUGH COVERAGE
OF LIGHTNING HAS GRADUALLY BEEN DECREASING.

ONCE THIS SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION...NOT MUCH FORCING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAKES
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION QUITE NEBULOUS. MODELS SHOWING
BEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...WHICH COINCIDES WITH WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 6.5
TO 7 C/KM...ALONG WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35 KT FOR
STORM ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...WITH A DISTINCT LACK OF A TRIGGER
COVERAGE SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND WILL NOT IMPACT EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HAVE INDICATED
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF FA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY BTWN 04Z
AND 06Z. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MOHAWK VLY
AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

MEANWHILE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCE 0.8 TO 1.8 IN OF QPF BTWN
05UTC TNGT AND 00UTC TUE, SO...FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF
GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE
CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VICINITY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WORD FOR THE EFP IS RETROGRADE.

PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE 500HPA TROF STILL IN PLACE OVER E NA.
GFS/ECMWF BRING YET ANOTHER SHORT WV AROUND BASE OF TROF LATE WED
INTO THUR WITH INCR CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA AGAIN N & W OF ALB. ITS
MORE LIKE SUFFICIENT INSTAB TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHC N&W OF ALB
OVER HIR TRRN WITH DIURNAL CYCLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...AS THE CUTOFF LIFTS NE INTO QB...THE LAST PIECES OF ENERGY
SHIFT THE TROF WEST...CREATE A CUT OFF...THAT RETROGRADES TO THE
OHIO VLY OR MISS VLY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.

THE ONE ITEM OF CONSENSUS WILL BE THE RIDGING OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
AT ALL LEVELS...WITH 500HPA RIDGE RETROGRADING TWRD THE COAST.
WHILE THERE NOT MUCH SFC FLOW OR FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD...BERMUDA HIGH RETROGRESSION RESULTS IN A S-SE FLOW ALOFT AND
INCR MOISTURE...CLOUDS...TEMPS.

OF NOTE ON GEFS PLUMES THERE`S A TENTH OR TWO OF QPF WED NT/THU ON
A FEW MEMBERS AND 3 MEMBERS WITH SOME QPF LATE SUNDAY 8/3 INTO MON
8/4...OTHERWISE ITS FLAT LINED AFTN MON EVNG ON MOST MEMBERS.

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES...PARTLY CLOUDY SKYS...AND SCT
MAINLY AFTN OR EVNG TSTMS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.

VFR/MVFR CONDS WL GIVE WAY TO MVFR/IFR BTWN 12Z AND 17Z AT THE TAF
SITES AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES EAST. FOR
THIS AFT...SINCE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED HAVE LEFT VCSH IN
THE TAFS. LATER TONIGHT A STEADY RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE TONIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTH
TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11/JPV
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KALY 271430
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1030 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT...MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOW SHIFTED EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND
WILL IMPACT THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTINCT SHORT
WAVE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS EVIDENT IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS ACTIVITY IS TIED TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SO
LIGHTNING AND DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS ALTHOUGH COVERAGE
OF LIGHTNING HAS GRADUALLY BEEN DECREASING.

ONCE THIS SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION...NOT MUCH FORCING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAKES
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION QUITE NEBULOUS. MODELS SHOWING
BEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...WHICH COINCIDES WITH WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 6.5
TO 7 C/KM...ALONG WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35 KT FOR
STORM ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...WITH A DISTINCT LACK OF A TRIGGER
COVERAGE SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF ALBANY.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND WILL NOT IMPACT EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HAVE INDICATED
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF FA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY BTWN 04Z
AND 06Z. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MOHAWK VLY
AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

MEANWHILE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCE 0.8 TO 1.8 IN OF QPF BTWN
05UTC TNGT AND 00UTC TUE, SO...FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF
GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE
CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VICINITY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WORD FOR THE EFP IS RETROGRADE.

PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE 500HPA TROF STILL IN PLACE OVER E NA.
GFS/ECMWF BRING YET ANOTHER SHORT WV AROUND BASE OF TROF LATE WED
INTO THUR WITH INCR CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA AGAIN N & W OF ALB. ITS
MORE LIKE SUFFICIENT INSTAB TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHC N&W OF ALB
OVER HIR TRRN WITH DIURNAL CYCLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...AS THE CUTOFF LIFTS NE INTO QB...THE LAST PIECES OF ENERGY
SHIFT THE TROF WEST...CREATE A CUT OFF...THAT RETROGRADES TO THE
OHIO VLY OR MISS VLY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.

THE ONE ITEM OF CONSENSUS WILL BE THE RIDGING OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
AT ALL LEVELS...WITH 500HPA RIDGE RETROGRADING TWRD THE COAST.
WHILE THERE NOT MUCH SFC FLOW OR FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD...BERMUDA HIGH RETROGRESSION RESULTS IN A S-SE FLOW ALOFT AND
INCR MOISTURE...CLOUDS...TEMPS.

OF NOTE ON GEFS PLUMES THERE`S A TENTH OR TWO OF QPF WED NT/THU ON
A FEW MEMBERS AND 3 MEMBERS WITH SOME QPF LATE SUNDAY 8/3 INTO MON
8/4...OTHERWISE ITS FLAT LINED AFTN MON EVNG ON MOST MEMBERS.

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES...PARTLY CLOUDY SKYS...AND SCT
MAINLY AFTN OR EVNG TSTMS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.

VFR/MVFR CONDS WL GIVE WAY TO MVFR/IFR BTWN 12Z AND 17Z AT THE TAF
SITES AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES EAST. FOR
THIS AFT...SINCE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED HAVE LEFT VCSH IN
THE TAFS. LATER TONIGHT A STEADY RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE TONIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTH
TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11/JPV
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 271421
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1021 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY INTO MONDAY. INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A POTENT MID-SUMMER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
MONDAY WITH A WETTING RAINFALL TO THE REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. GRADUALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1019 AM EDT SUNDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWING A BAND OF MODERATE
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT
ATTM. HAVE UPDATED TO TRIM BACK POPS ACRS THE CPV/DACKS TO CHC.
CONTINUED TO MENTION HIGH CAT POPS FOR PRECIP ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN
VT...BUT THIS WL CLR OUR CWA BY 16Z TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
RANGED BTWN 0.10 AND 0.50 ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH 0.30
FALLING AT BTV THRU 10 AM. NEXT FCST CHALLENGE WL BE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THIS AFTN/EVENING. VIS SATL PIC SHOWS A FEW
BREAKS ACRS THE SLV...WHICH WL SPREAD EAST INTO THE CPV/VT BY
EARLY THIS AFTN...ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND S/W ENERGY.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS ANOTHER WEAK 5H VORT JUST NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WHICH WL PASS ALONG OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWA BTWN 17Z-
22Z TODAY. THINKING THIS ENERGY ALOFT...COMBINED WITH SOME SFC
HEATING WL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTN.
THE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND ULVL FORCING WL KEEP POPS IN THE 30 TO
40% RANGE THIS AFTN. IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACRS THE
CPV...FROM SFC HEATING...A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE.
LATEST HRRR AND BTV4KM HINT AT THIS POTENTIAL WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 TO
35 KNOTS. THESE SOLUTIONS SUPPORT PULSE LIKE STORMS...WITH NO REAL
ORGANIZATION. TEMPS WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP THIS MORNING WL SLOWLY
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S (MTNS) TO LOWER 80S (SLV/CPV) BY EARLY
THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY IF A FEW BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST CAN
DEVELOP.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT SUNDAY FOLLOWS...

ONGOING LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW ENTERING THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY TIED TO AN
INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO EASTERN VERMONT PER WV IMAGERY AND
WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT (SHOWALTERS -1 TO -2). LIGHTER SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF VERMONT. EXPECT THE SOLID LINE OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREENS AND INTO EASTERN
VERMONT THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS. I`VE SHOWN
RELATIVELY HIGH POP (LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL) TO COVER THIS
ONGOING ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING.

FOCUS FOR THE AFTN THEN SHIFTS TOWARDS POTENTIAL FOR RE-DEVELOPING
CONVECTION AND ITS AREAL COVERAGE. FEEL THAT SOME CLEARING IN THE
WAKE OF MORNING SHOWERS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION. I
DON`T THINK THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE AS HIGH AS WHAT
THE 4-KM NAM OR WRF BTV-4 IS SHOWING (NEAR 2000 J/KG CAPE)...BUT
VALUES AROUND HALF THAT SEEM REASONABLE WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6C/KM. WIND FIELDS ALSO
STRENGTHEN TO PRODUCE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 30-35 KTS.
HOWEVER BY AFTN THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE AND A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...IN MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENT/WEAK
HEIGHT RISE REGIME. THAT SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS OR KEEP A MORE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE TO ANY STORMS THAT CAN
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. I THOUGHT ABOUT INTRODUCING ENHANCED
WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL BUT OVERALL LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE SUGGESTED AGAINST DOING SO. IT`S ALSO DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT A FAVORED AREA FOR STRONGER STORMS TODAY...BUT WOULD
THINK EASTERN VERMONT WOULD HAVE A TOUGHER TIME CLEARING AND LOWER
INSTABILITY THERE. I WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS IN
THE HWO HOWEVER. OVERALL QPF TODAY GENERALLY A QUARTER TO AS MUCH
AS A HALF-INCH (LOCALLY HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORM DOWNPOURS).

HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO A SPOT 80 TODAY...GENERALLY
COOLEST ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND IN EASTERN VERMONT WHERE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL TAKE LONGER TO CLEAR (I.E. LESS TIME FOR AFTN
BREAKS IN CLOUDS).

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 437 AM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. MORE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FOR TUESDAY BUT STILL GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNDER A WELL-ADVERTISED 500 MB TROUGH.

TONIGHT: STILL CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM EARLY
EVENING BUT ALREADY LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BECOME EVEN MORE SO BY
DARK. THE STRONG...POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSUMES A
NEGATIVE TILT BY 12Z MONDAY AND INDUCES SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT NEAR
CENTRAL PA LATER TONIGHT. THERE`S SOME QUESTION MARKS AS TO THIS
LOW`S EXACT TRACK ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF POTENTIAL MASS FIELD
CHANGES GIVEN A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
/APPALACHIANS TODAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER AGREEMENT ON A MORE
INTERIOR TRACK (LOW ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION
BY 12Z MONDAY) - AND THERE ARE GOOD SIGNALS IN HIGH RES MODELS OF A
BAND OF MODERATE RAIN ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF SFC LOW`S
TRACK. THAT BAND OF MODERATE RAIN LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN
VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. INITIALLY KEPT
POPS AROUND CHANCE CATEGORY BUT BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD AFTER
MIDNIGHT TO LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LOWS
UNLIKELY TO FALL MUCH UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MAV OR MET MOS GUIDANCE.

MONDAY & MONDAY NIGHT: SFC LOW THEN TRACKS UP THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/GREEN MOUNTAINS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...500 MB TROUGH ALSO
PIVOTS NORTHWARD BUT APPEARS TO CLOSE OFF BY MONDAY EVENING. WITH
THAT EXPECTED LOW TRACK...IT LEAVES CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT IN THE
WARM SECTOR. FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IF GREATER INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED (GENERALLY IS
HIGHEST IN THE 00Z GFS) IN THIS CORRIDOR. NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
TRACK...MORE STRATIFORM MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. I`VE INDICATED
CHANCE THUNDER FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT IN PROGGED WARM
SECTOR...BUT HAVE OTHERWISE KEPT THUNDER OUT ELSEWHERE WHERE IT`S
LIKELY TO BE MORE RAIN-COOLED/STABLE. CATEGORICAL POPS OFFERED
MONDAY WITH GRADUAL TAPER TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. TEMPS ARE TRICKY/DEPENDENT ON LOW TRACK...BUT LIKELY TO BE
BELOW NORMAL AND CLOSER TO NORMAL IF WARM SECTOR CAN GET
ESTABLISHED. HIGHS IN NORTHERN NY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES
IN A CLOUDY/RAINY DAY...AND CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER 70S IN CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT. QPF MONDAY RANGES FROM LESS THAN A HALF-INCH
FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY... .75-1" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT TO JUST
A TICK OVER AN INCH FOR THE ADIRONDACKS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES FROM THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN.

TUESDAY: UPPER TROUGH EXITS WITH STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTHWEST FLOW...MDT COLD
ADVECTION (850 TEMPS DURING TUESDAY PLUNGE TO +6 TO +8C) AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PRODUCES BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US CENTERED NEAR 80 DEG W WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...THOUGH WEAKENING
WITH RISING HEIGHTS.

THOUGH A SHOWER CAN`T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ANY AFTERNOON DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF TO THE WEST...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SOME INSTABILITY AND SOME QG FORCING.

THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST
WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY
TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH 850 TEMPS ONLY
AROUND 8-10C.

850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY SO THAT BY THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL -
UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY..MVFR LCL IFR 12-16Z THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A WEAK WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE NEAR 80 PERCENT THROUGH ABOUT 16Z TODAY THEN
DECREASE.

CHANCES OF THUNDER INCREASING ESPECIALLY PBG BTV RUT MPV MOVING
WEST TO EAST 12-16Z.

VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT SOME BRIEF
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

PERIODS OF MVFR ARE LIKELY ON BACK SIDE OF RAIN SHOWERS...LASTING
UNTIL LATE MORNING WHEN SHOWER THREAT DECREASES. CEILINGS LIFT
BACK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
AHEAD OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT IN CANADA BUT POBABILITIES
ONLY 20-30 PERCENT SO HAVE LEFT OUT ALL BUT SLK WHERE TERRAIN MAY
HELP.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DROP THIS EVENING UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.
COULD BE SOME FG/BR CHANCES LATER TONIGHT IF CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS TO OUR NORTH WHEN 09-12Z
MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER RETURN ALONG WITH A MVFR/IFR.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MON - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY SLK/MSS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 550 AM EDT SUNDAY...A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT AND NOW EXTENDS FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY TO THE EASTERN
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE IS NO IMMEDIATE THREAT OF
LIGHTNING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN...EXPECT THESE STORMS TO APPROACH LAKE
CHAMPLAIN BY MID-MORNING. BOATERS AND OTHERS NEAR THE LAKE SHOULD
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR AS THESE STORMS MOVE
THROUGH...WITH OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS
PRODUCING BRIEFLY LOWERED VISIBILITY...AND ROUGH SEAS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
MARINE...LOCONTO











000
FXUS61 KBTV 271421
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1021 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY INTO MONDAY. INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A POTENT MID-SUMMER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
MONDAY WITH A WETTING RAINFALL TO THE REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. GRADUALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1019 AM EDT SUNDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWING A BAND OF MODERATE
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT
ATTM. HAVE UPDATED TO TRIM BACK POPS ACRS THE CPV/DACKS TO CHC.
CONTINUED TO MENTION HIGH CAT POPS FOR PRECIP ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN
VT...BUT THIS WL CLR OUR CWA BY 16Z TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
RANGED BTWN 0.10 AND 0.50 ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH 0.30
FALLING AT BTV THRU 10 AM. NEXT FCST CHALLENGE WL BE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THIS AFTN/EVENING. VIS SATL PIC SHOWS A FEW
BREAKS ACRS THE SLV...WHICH WL SPREAD EAST INTO THE CPV/VT BY
EARLY THIS AFTN...ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND S/W ENERGY.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS ANOTHER WEAK 5H VORT JUST NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WHICH WL PASS ALONG OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWA BTWN 17Z-
22Z TODAY. THINKING THIS ENERGY ALOFT...COMBINED WITH SOME SFC
HEATING WL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTN.
THE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND ULVL FORCING WL KEEP POPS IN THE 30 TO
40% RANGE THIS AFTN. IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACRS THE
CPV...FROM SFC HEATING...A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE.
LATEST HRRR AND BTV4KM HINT AT THIS POTENTIAL WITH SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 TO
35 KNOTS. THESE SOLUTIONS SUPPORT PULSE LIKE STORMS...WITH NO REAL
ORGANIZATION. TEMPS WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP THIS MORNING WL SLOWLY
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S (MTNS) TO LOWER 80S (SLV/CPV) BY EARLY
THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY IF A FEW BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST CAN
DEVELOP.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT SUNDAY FOLLOWS...

ONGOING LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW ENTERING THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY TIED TO AN
INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO EASTERN VERMONT PER WV IMAGERY AND
WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT (SHOWALTERS -1 TO -2). LIGHTER SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF VERMONT. EXPECT THE SOLID LINE OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREENS AND INTO EASTERN
VERMONT THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS. I`VE SHOWN
RELATIVELY HIGH POP (LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL) TO COVER THIS
ONGOING ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING.

FOCUS FOR THE AFTN THEN SHIFTS TOWARDS POTENTIAL FOR RE-DEVELOPING
CONVECTION AND ITS AREAL COVERAGE. FEEL THAT SOME CLEARING IN THE
WAKE OF MORNING SHOWERS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION. I
DON`T THINK THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE AS HIGH AS WHAT
THE 4-KM NAM OR WRF BTV-4 IS SHOWING (NEAR 2000 J/KG CAPE)...BUT
VALUES AROUND HALF THAT SEEM REASONABLE WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6C/KM. WIND FIELDS ALSO
STRENGTHEN TO PRODUCE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 30-35 KTS.
HOWEVER BY AFTN THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE AND A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...IN MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENT/WEAK
HEIGHT RISE REGIME. THAT SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS OR KEEP A MORE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE TO ANY STORMS THAT CAN
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. I THOUGHT ABOUT INTRODUCING ENHANCED
WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL BUT OVERALL LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE SUGGESTED AGAINST DOING SO. IT`S ALSO DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT A FAVORED AREA FOR STRONGER STORMS TODAY...BUT WOULD
THINK EASTERN VERMONT WOULD HAVE A TOUGHER TIME CLEARING AND LOWER
INSTABILITY THERE. I WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS IN
THE HWO HOWEVER. OVERALL QPF TODAY GENERALLY A QUARTER TO AS MUCH
AS A HALF-INCH (LOCALLY HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORM DOWNPOURS).

HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO A SPOT 80 TODAY...GENERALLY
COOLEST ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND IN EASTERN VERMONT WHERE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL TAKE LONGER TO CLEAR (I.E. LESS TIME FOR AFTN
BREAKS IN CLOUDS).

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 437 AM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. MORE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FOR TUESDAY BUT STILL GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNDER A WELL-ADVERTISED 500 MB TROUGH.

TONIGHT: STILL CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM EARLY
EVENING BUT ALREADY LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BECOME EVEN MORE SO BY
DARK. THE STRONG...POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSUMES A
NEGATIVE TILT BY 12Z MONDAY AND INDUCES SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT NEAR
CENTRAL PA LATER TONIGHT. THERE`S SOME QUESTION MARKS AS TO THIS
LOW`S EXACT TRACK ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF POTENTIAL MASS FIELD
CHANGES GIVEN A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
/APPALACHIANS TODAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER AGREEMENT ON A MORE
INTERIOR TRACK (LOW ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION
BY 12Z MONDAY) - AND THERE ARE GOOD SIGNALS IN HIGH RES MODELS OF A
BAND OF MODERATE RAIN ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF SFC LOW`S
TRACK. THAT BAND OF MODERATE RAIN LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN
VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. INITIALLY KEPT
POPS AROUND CHANCE CATEGORY BUT BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD AFTER
MIDNIGHT TO LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LOWS
UNLIKELY TO FALL MUCH UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MAV OR MET MOS GUIDANCE.

MONDAY & MONDAY NIGHT: SFC LOW THEN TRACKS UP THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/GREEN MOUNTAINS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...500 MB TROUGH ALSO
PIVOTS NORTHWARD BUT APPEARS TO CLOSE OFF BY MONDAY EVENING. WITH
THAT EXPECTED LOW TRACK...IT LEAVES CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT IN THE
WARM SECTOR. FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IF GREATER INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED (GENERALLY IS
HIGHEST IN THE 00Z GFS) IN THIS CORRIDOR. NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
TRACK...MORE STRATIFORM MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. I`VE INDICATED
CHANCE THUNDER FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT IN PROGGED WARM
SECTOR...BUT HAVE OTHERWISE KEPT THUNDER OUT ELSEWHERE WHERE IT`S
LIKELY TO BE MORE RAIN-COOLED/STABLE. CATEGORICAL POPS OFFERED
MONDAY WITH GRADUAL TAPER TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. TEMPS ARE TRICKY/DEPENDENT ON LOW TRACK...BUT LIKELY TO BE
BELOW NORMAL AND CLOSER TO NORMAL IF WARM SECTOR CAN GET
ESTABLISHED. HIGHS IN NORTHERN NY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES
IN A CLOUDY/RAINY DAY...AND CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER 70S IN CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT. QPF MONDAY RANGES FROM LESS THAN A HALF-INCH
FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY... .75-1" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT TO JUST
A TICK OVER AN INCH FOR THE ADIRONDACKS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES FROM THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN.

TUESDAY: UPPER TROUGH EXITS WITH STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTHWEST FLOW...MDT COLD
ADVECTION (850 TEMPS DURING TUESDAY PLUNGE TO +6 TO +8C) AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PRODUCES BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US CENTERED NEAR 80 DEG W WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...THOUGH WEAKENING
WITH RISING HEIGHTS.

THOUGH A SHOWER CAN`T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ANY AFTERNOON DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF TO THE WEST...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SOME INSTABILITY AND SOME QG FORCING.

THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST
WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY
TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH 850 TEMPS ONLY
AROUND 8-10C.

850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY SO THAT BY THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL -
UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY..MVFR LCL IFR 12-16Z THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A WEAK WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE NEAR 80 PERCENT THROUGH ABOUT 16Z TODAY THEN
DECREASE.

CHANCES OF THUNDER INCREASING ESPECIALLY PBG BTV RUT MPV MOVING
WEST TO EAST 12-16Z.

VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT SOME BRIEF
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

PERIODS OF MVFR ARE LIKELY ON BACK SIDE OF RAIN SHOWERS...LASTING
UNTIL LATE MORNING WHEN SHOWER THREAT DECREASES. CEILINGS LIFT
BACK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
AHEAD OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT IN CANADA BUT POBABILITIES
ONLY 20-30 PERCENT SO HAVE LEFT OUT ALL BUT SLK WHERE TERRAIN MAY
HELP.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DROP THIS EVENING UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.
COULD BE SOME FG/BR CHANCES LATER TONIGHT IF CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS TO OUR NORTH WHEN 09-12Z
MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER RETURN ALONG WITH A MVFR/IFR.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MON - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY SLK/MSS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 550 AM EDT SUNDAY...A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT AND NOW EXTENDS FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY TO THE EASTERN
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE IS NO IMMEDIATE THREAT OF
LIGHTNING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN...EXPECT THESE STORMS TO APPROACH LAKE
CHAMPLAIN BY MID-MORNING. BOATERS AND OTHERS NEAR THE LAKE SHOULD
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR AS THESE STORMS MOVE
THROUGH...WITH OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS
PRODUCING BRIEFLY LOWERED VISIBILITY...AND ROUGH SEAS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...TABER/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
MARINE...LOCONTO












000
FXUS61 KBTV 271149
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
749 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY INTO MONDAY. INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A POTENT MID-SUMMER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
MONDAY WITH A WETTING RAINFALL TO THE REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. GRADUALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 657 AM EDT SUNDAY...PRIMARY CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE TO
ADJUST POPS/WX TO ACCOUNT FOR LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE NORTHERN END OF
THIS LINE APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING A BIT AS IT APPROACHES THE NY
SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. STRONGEST PORTION OF THESE STORMS
EXTEND FROM JUST EAST OF LOWVILLE SOUTH TO BGM...AND EXPECT THESE
STORMS TO NEAR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OVER THE NEXT HOUR AND THEN
INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SEE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT RECENTLY ISSUED. OTHERWISE HAVE BLENDED IN
RECENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA IN WITH GRIDDED FORECAST ELEMENTS.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT SUNDAY FOLLOWS...

ONGOING LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW ENTERING THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY TIED TO AN
INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO EASTERN VERMONT PER WV IMAGERY AND
WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT (SHOWALTERS -1 TO -2). LIGHTER SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF VERMONT. EXPECT THE SOLID LINE OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREENS AND INTO EASTERN
VERMONT THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS. I`VE SHOWN
RELATIVELY HIGH POP (LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL) TO COVER THIS
ONGOING ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING.

FOCUS FOR THE AFTN THEN SHIFTS TOWARDS POTENTIAL FOR RE-DEVELOPING
CONVECTION AND ITS AREAL COVERAGE. FEEL THAT SOME CLEARING IN THE
WAKE OF MORNING SHOWERS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION. I
DON`T THINK THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE AS HIGH AS WHAT
THE 4-KM NAM OR WRF BTV-4 IS SHOWING (NEAR 2000 J/KG CAPE)...BUT
VALUES AROUND HALF THAT SEEM REASONABLE WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6C/KM. WIND FIELDS ALSO
STRENGTHEN TO PRODUCE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 30-35 KTS.
HOWEVER BY AFTN THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE AND A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...IN MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENT/WEAK
HEIGHT RISE REGIME. THAT SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS OR KEEP A MORE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE TO ANY STORMS THAT CAN
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. I THOUGHT ABOUT INTRODUCING ENHANCED
WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL BUT OVERALL LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE SUGGESTED AGAINST DOING SO. IT`S ALSO DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT A FAVORED AREA FOR STRONGER STORMS TODAY...BUT WOULD
THINK EASTERN VERMONT WOULD HAVE A TOUGHER TIME CLEARING AND LOWER
INSTABILITY THERE. I WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS IN
THE HWO HOWEVER. OVERALL QPF TODAY GENERALLY A QUARTER TO AS MUCH
AS A HALF-INCH (LOCALLY HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORM DOWNPOURS).

HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO A SPOT 80 TODAY...GENERALLY
COOLEST ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND IN EASTERN VERMONT WHERE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL TAKE LONGER TO CLEAR (I.E. LESS TIME FOR AFTN
BREAKS IN CLOUDS).

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 437 AM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. MORE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FOR TUESDAY BUT STILL GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNDER A WELL-ADVERTISED 500 MB TROUGH.

TONIGHT: STILL CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM EARLY
EVENING BUT ALREADY LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BECOME EVEN MORE SO BY
DARK. THE STRONG...POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSUMES A
NEGATIVE TILT BY 12Z MONDAY AND INDUCES SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT NEAR
CENTRAL PA LATER TONIGHT. THERE`S SOME QUESTION MARKS AS TO THIS
LOW`S EXACT TRACK ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF POTENTIAL MASS FIELD
CHANGES GIVEN A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
/APPALACHIANS TODAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER AGREEMENT ON A MORE
INTERIOR TRACK (LOW ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION
BY 12Z MONDAY) - AND THERE ARE GOOD SIGNALS IN HIGH RES MODELS OF A
BAND OF MODERATE RAIN ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF SFC LOW`S
TRACK. THAT BAND OF MODERATE RAIN LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN
VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. INITIALLY KEPT
POPS AROUND CHANCE CATEGORY BUT BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD AFTER
MIDNIGHT TO LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LOWS
UNLIKELY TO FALL MUCH UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MAV OR MET MOS GUIDANCE.

MONDAY & MONDAY NIGHT: SFC LOW THEN TRACKS UP THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/GREEN MOUNTAINS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...500 MB TROUGH ALSO
PIVOTS NORTHWARD BUT APPEARS TO CLOSE OFF BY MONDAY EVENING. WITH
THAT EXPECTED LOW TRACK...IT LEAVES CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT IN THE
WARM SECTOR. FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IF GREATER INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED (GENERALLY IS
HIGHEST IN THE 00Z GFS) IN THIS CORRIDOR. NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
TRACK...MORE STRATIFORM MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. I`VE INDICATED
CHANCE THUNDER FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT IN PROGGED WARM
SECTOR...BUT HAVE OTHERWISE KEPT THUNDER OUT ELSEWHERE WHERE IT`S
LIKELY TO BE MORE RAIN-COOLED/STABLE. CATEGORICAL POPS OFFERED
MONDAY WITH GRADUAL TAPER TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. TEMPS ARE TRICKY/DEPENDENT ON LOW TRACK...BUT LIKELY TO BE
BELOW NORMAL AND CLOSER TO NORMAL IF WARM SECTOR CAN GET
ESTABLISHED. HIGHS IN NORTHERN NY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES
IN A CLOUDY/RAINY DAY...AND CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER 70S IN CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT. QPF MONDAY RANGES FROM LESS THAN A HALF-INCH
FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY... .75-1" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT TO JUST
A TICK OVER AN INCH FOR THE ADIRONDACKS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES FROM THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN.

TUESDAY: UPPER TROUGH EXITS WITH STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTHWEST FLOW...MDT COLD
ADVECTION (850 TEMPS DURING TUESDAY PLUNGE TO +6 TO +8C) AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PRODUCES BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US CENTERED NEAR 80 DEG W WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...THOUGH WEAKENING
WITH RISING HEIGHTS.

THOUGH A SHOWER CAN`T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ANY AFTERNOON DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF TO THE WEST...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SOME INSTABILITY AND SOME QG FORCING.

THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST
WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY
TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH 850 TEMPS ONLY
AROUND 8-10C.

850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY SO THAT BY THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL -
UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY..MVFR LCL IFR 12-16Z THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A WEAK WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE NEAR 80 PERCENT THROUGH ABOUT 16Z TODAY THEN
DECREASE.

CHANCES OF THUNDER INCREASING ESPECIALLY PBG BTV RUT MPV MOVING
WEST TO EAST 12-16Z.

VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT SOME BRIEF
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

PERIODS OF MVFR ARE LIKELY ON BACK SIDE OF RAIN SHOWERS...LASTING
UNTIL LATE MORNING WHEN SHOWER THREAT DECREASES. CEILINGS LIFT
BACK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
AHEAD OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT IN CANADA BUT POBABILITIES
ONLY 20-30 PERCENT SO HAVE LEFT OUT ALL BUT SLK WHERE TERRAIN MAY
HELP.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DROP THIS EVENING UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.
COULD BE SOME FG/BR CHANCES LATER TONIGHT IF CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS TO OUR NORTH WHEN 09-12Z
MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER RETURN ALONG WITH A MVFR/IFR.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MON - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY SLK/MSS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 550 AM EDT SUNDAY...A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT AND NOW EXTENDS FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY TO THE EASTERN
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE IS NO IMMEDIATE THREAT OF
LIGHTNING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN...EXPECT THESE STORMS TO APPROACH LAKE
CHAMPLAIN BY MID-MORNING. BOATERS AND OTHERS NEAR THE LAKE SHOULD
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR AS THESE STORMS MOVE
THROUGH...WITH OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS
PRODUCING BRIEFLY LOWERED VISIBILITY...AND ROUGH SEAS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
MARINE...LOCONTO








000
FXUS61 KBTV 271149
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
749 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY INTO MONDAY. INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A POTENT MID-SUMMER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
MONDAY WITH A WETTING RAINFALL TO THE REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. GRADUALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 657 AM EDT SUNDAY...PRIMARY CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE TO
ADJUST POPS/WX TO ACCOUNT FOR LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE NORTHERN END OF
THIS LINE APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING A BIT AS IT APPROACHES THE NY
SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. STRONGEST PORTION OF THESE STORMS
EXTEND FROM JUST EAST OF LOWVILLE SOUTH TO BGM...AND EXPECT THESE
STORMS TO NEAR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OVER THE NEXT HOUR AND THEN
INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SEE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT RECENTLY ISSUED. OTHERWISE HAVE BLENDED IN
RECENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA IN WITH GRIDDED FORECAST ELEMENTS.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT SUNDAY FOLLOWS...

ONGOING LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW ENTERING THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY TIED TO AN
INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO EASTERN VERMONT PER WV IMAGERY AND
WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT (SHOWALTERS -1 TO -2). LIGHTER SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF VERMONT. EXPECT THE SOLID LINE OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREENS AND INTO EASTERN
VERMONT THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS. I`VE SHOWN
RELATIVELY HIGH POP (LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL) TO COVER THIS
ONGOING ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING.

FOCUS FOR THE AFTN THEN SHIFTS TOWARDS POTENTIAL FOR RE-DEVELOPING
CONVECTION AND ITS AREAL COVERAGE. FEEL THAT SOME CLEARING IN THE
WAKE OF MORNING SHOWERS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION. I
DON`T THINK THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE AS HIGH AS WHAT
THE 4-KM NAM OR WRF BTV-4 IS SHOWING (NEAR 2000 J/KG CAPE)...BUT
VALUES AROUND HALF THAT SEEM REASONABLE WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6C/KM. WIND FIELDS ALSO
STRENGTHEN TO PRODUCE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 30-35 KTS.
HOWEVER BY AFTN THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE AND A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...IN MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENT/WEAK
HEIGHT RISE REGIME. THAT SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS OR KEEP A MORE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE TO ANY STORMS THAT CAN
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. I THOUGHT ABOUT INTRODUCING ENHANCED
WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL BUT OVERALL LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE SUGGESTED AGAINST DOING SO. IT`S ALSO DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT A FAVORED AREA FOR STRONGER STORMS TODAY...BUT WOULD
THINK EASTERN VERMONT WOULD HAVE A TOUGHER TIME CLEARING AND LOWER
INSTABILITY THERE. I WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS IN
THE HWO HOWEVER. OVERALL QPF TODAY GENERALLY A QUARTER TO AS MUCH
AS A HALF-INCH (LOCALLY HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORM DOWNPOURS).

HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO A SPOT 80 TODAY...GENERALLY
COOLEST ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND IN EASTERN VERMONT WHERE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL TAKE LONGER TO CLEAR (I.E. LESS TIME FOR AFTN
BREAKS IN CLOUDS).

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 437 AM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. MORE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FOR TUESDAY BUT STILL GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNDER A WELL-ADVERTISED 500 MB TROUGH.

TONIGHT: STILL CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM EARLY
EVENING BUT ALREADY LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BECOME EVEN MORE SO BY
DARK. THE STRONG...POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSUMES A
NEGATIVE TILT BY 12Z MONDAY AND INDUCES SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT NEAR
CENTRAL PA LATER TONIGHT. THERE`S SOME QUESTION MARKS AS TO THIS
LOW`S EXACT TRACK ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF POTENTIAL MASS FIELD
CHANGES GIVEN A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
/APPALACHIANS TODAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER AGREEMENT ON A MORE
INTERIOR TRACK (LOW ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION
BY 12Z MONDAY) - AND THERE ARE GOOD SIGNALS IN HIGH RES MODELS OF A
BAND OF MODERATE RAIN ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF SFC LOW`S
TRACK. THAT BAND OF MODERATE RAIN LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN
VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. INITIALLY KEPT
POPS AROUND CHANCE CATEGORY BUT BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD AFTER
MIDNIGHT TO LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LOWS
UNLIKELY TO FALL MUCH UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MAV OR MET MOS GUIDANCE.

MONDAY & MONDAY NIGHT: SFC LOW THEN TRACKS UP THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/GREEN MOUNTAINS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...500 MB TROUGH ALSO
PIVOTS NORTHWARD BUT APPEARS TO CLOSE OFF BY MONDAY EVENING. WITH
THAT EXPECTED LOW TRACK...IT LEAVES CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT IN THE
WARM SECTOR. FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IF GREATER INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED (GENERALLY IS
HIGHEST IN THE 00Z GFS) IN THIS CORRIDOR. NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
TRACK...MORE STRATIFORM MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. I`VE INDICATED
CHANCE THUNDER FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT IN PROGGED WARM
SECTOR...BUT HAVE OTHERWISE KEPT THUNDER OUT ELSEWHERE WHERE IT`S
LIKELY TO BE MORE RAIN-COOLED/STABLE. CATEGORICAL POPS OFFERED
MONDAY WITH GRADUAL TAPER TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. TEMPS ARE TRICKY/DEPENDENT ON LOW TRACK...BUT LIKELY TO BE
BELOW NORMAL AND CLOSER TO NORMAL IF WARM SECTOR CAN GET
ESTABLISHED. HIGHS IN NORTHERN NY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES
IN A CLOUDY/RAINY DAY...AND CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER 70S IN CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT. QPF MONDAY RANGES FROM LESS THAN A HALF-INCH
FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY... .75-1" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT TO JUST
A TICK OVER AN INCH FOR THE ADIRONDACKS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES FROM THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN.

TUESDAY: UPPER TROUGH EXITS WITH STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTHWEST FLOW...MDT COLD
ADVECTION (850 TEMPS DURING TUESDAY PLUNGE TO +6 TO +8C) AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PRODUCES BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US CENTERED NEAR 80 DEG W WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...THOUGH WEAKENING
WITH RISING HEIGHTS.

THOUGH A SHOWER CAN`T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ANY AFTERNOON DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF TO THE WEST...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SOME INSTABILITY AND SOME QG FORCING.

THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST
WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY
TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH 850 TEMPS ONLY
AROUND 8-10C.

850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY SO THAT BY THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL -
UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY..MVFR LCL IFR 12-16Z THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A WEAK WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE NEAR 80 PERCENT THROUGH ABOUT 16Z TODAY THEN
DECREASE.

CHANCES OF THUNDER INCREASING ESPECIALLY PBG BTV RUT MPV MOVING
WEST TO EAST 12-16Z.

VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT SOME BRIEF
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

PERIODS OF MVFR ARE LIKELY ON BACK SIDE OF RAIN SHOWERS...LASTING
UNTIL LATE MORNING WHEN SHOWER THREAT DECREASES. CEILINGS LIFT
BACK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
AHEAD OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT IN CANADA BUT POBABILITIES
ONLY 20-30 PERCENT SO HAVE LEFT OUT ALL BUT SLK WHERE TERRAIN MAY
HELP.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DROP THIS EVENING UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.
COULD BE SOME FG/BR CHANCES LATER TONIGHT IF CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS TO OUR NORTH WHEN 09-12Z
MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER RETURN ALONG WITH A MVFR/IFR.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z MON - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY SLK/MSS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 550 AM EDT SUNDAY...A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT AND NOW EXTENDS FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY TO THE EASTERN
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE IS NO IMMEDIATE THREAT OF
LIGHTNING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN...EXPECT THESE STORMS TO APPROACH LAKE
CHAMPLAIN BY MID-MORNING. BOATERS AND OTHERS NEAR THE LAKE SHOULD
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR AS THESE STORMS MOVE
THROUGH...WITH OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS
PRODUCING BRIEFLY LOWERED VISIBILITY...AND ROUGH SEAS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
MARINE...LOCONTO







000
FXUS61 KBTV 271058
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
658 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY INTO MONDAY. INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A POTENT MID-SUMMER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
MONDAY WITH A WETTING RAINFALL TO THE REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. GRADUALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 657 AM EDT SUNDAY...PRIMARY CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE TO
ADJUST POPS/WX TO ACCOUNT FOR LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE NORTHERN END OF
THIS LINE APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING A BIT AS IT APPROACHES THE NY
SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. STRONGEST PORTION OF THESE STORMS
EXTEND FROM JUST EAST OF LOWVILLE SOUTH TO BGM...AND EXPECT THESE
STORMS TO NEAR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OVER THE NEXT HOUR AND THEN
INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SEE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT RECENTLY ISSUED. OTHERWISE HAVE BLENDED IN
RECENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA IN WITH GRIDDED FORECAST ELEMENTS.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT SUNDAY FOLLOWS...

ONGOING LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW ENTERING THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY TIED TO AN
INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO EASTERN VERMONT PER WV IMAGERY AND
WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT (SHOWALTERS -1 TO -2). LIGHTER SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF VERMONT. EXPECT THE SOLID LINE OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREENS AND INTO EASTERN
VERMONT THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS. I`VE SHOWN
RELATIVELY HIGH POP (LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL) TO COVER THIS
ONGOING ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING.

FOCUS FOR THE AFTN THEN SHIFTS TOWARDS POTENTIAL FOR RE-DEVELOPING
CONVECTION AND ITS AREAL COVERAGE. FEEL THAT SOME CLEARING IN THE
WAKE OF MORNING SHOWERS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION. I
DON`T THINK THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE AS HIGH AS WHAT
THE 4-KM NAM OR WRF BTV-4 IS SHOWING (NEAR 2000 J/KG CAPE)...BUT
VALUES AROUND HALF THAT SEEM REASONABLE WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6C/KM. WIND FIELDS ALSO
STRENGTHEN TO PRODUCE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 30-35 KTS.
HOWEVER BY AFTN THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE AND A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...IN MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENT/WEAK
HEIGHT RISE REGIME. THAT SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS OR KEEP A MORE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE TO ANY STORMS THAT CAN
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. I THOUGHT ABOUT INTRODUCING ENHANCED
WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL BUT OVERALL LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE SUGGESTED AGAINST DOING SO. IT`S ALSO DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT A FAVORED AREA FOR STRONGER STORMS TODAY...BUT WOULD
THINK EASTERN VERMONT WOULD HAVE A TOUGHER TIME CLEARING AND LOWER
INSTABILITY THERE. I WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS IN
THE HWO HOWEVER. OVERALL QPF TODAY GENERALLY A QUARTER TO AS MUCH
AS A HALF-INCH (LOCALLY HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORM DOWNPOURS).

HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO A SPOT 80 TODAY...GENERALLY
COOLEST ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND IN EASTERN VERMONT WHERE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL TAKE LONGER TO CLEAR (I.E. LESS TIME FOR AFTN
BREAKS IN CLOUDS).

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 437 AM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. MORE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FOR TUESDAY BUT STILL GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNDER A WELL-ADVERTISED 500 MB TROUGH.

TONIGHT: STILL CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM EARLY
EVENING BUT ALREADY LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BECOME EVEN MORE SO BY
DARK. THE STRONG...POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSUMES A
NEGATIVE TILT BY 12Z MONDAY AND INDUCES SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT NEAR
CENTRAL PA LATER TONIGHT. THERE`S SOME QUESTION MARKS AS TO THIS
LOW`S EXACT TRACK ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF POTENTIAL MASS FIELD
CHANGES GIVEN A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
/APPALACHIANS TODAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER AGREEMENT ON A MORE
INTERIOR TRACK (LOW ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION
BY 12Z MONDAY) - AND THERE ARE GOOD SIGNALS IN HIGH RES MODELS OF A
BAND OF MODERATE RAIN ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF SFC LOW`S
TRACK. THAT BAND OF MODERATE RAIN LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN
VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. INITIALLY KEPT
POPS AROUND CHANCE CATEGORY BUT BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD AFTER
MIDNIGHT TO LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LOWS
UNLIKELY TO FALL MUCH UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MAV OR MET MOS GUIDANCE.

MONDAY & MONDAY NIGHT: SFC LOW THEN TRACKS UP THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/GREEN MOUNTAINS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...500 MB TROUGH ALSO
PIVOTS NORTHWARD BUT APPEARS TO CLOSE OFF BY MONDAY EVENING. WITH
THAT EXPECTED LOW TRACK...IT LEAVES CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT IN THE
WARM SECTOR. FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IF GREATER INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED (GENERALLY IS
HIGHEST IN THE 00Z GFS) IN THIS CORRIDOR. NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
TRACK...MORE STRATIFORM MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. I`VE INDICATED
CHANCE THUNDER FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT IN PROGGED WARM
SECTOR...BUT HAVE OTHERWISE KEPT THUNDER OUT ELSEWHERE WHERE IT`S
LIKELY TO BE MORE RAIN-COOLED/STABLE. CATEGORICAL POPS OFFERED
MONDAY WITH GRADUAL TAPER TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. TEMPS ARE TRICKY/DEPENDENT ON LOW TRACK...BUT LIKELY TO BE
BELOW NORMAL AND CLOSER TO NORMAL IF WARM SECTOR CAN GET
ESTABLISHED. HIGHS IN NORTHERN NY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES
IN A CLOUDY/RAINY DAY...AND CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER 70S IN CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT. QPF MONDAY RANGES FROM LESS THAN A HALF-INCH
FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY... .75-1" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT TO JUST
A TICK OVER AN INCH FOR THE ADIRONDACKS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES FROM THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN.

TUESDAY: UPPER TROUGH EXITS WITH STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTHWEST FLOW...MDT COLD
ADVECTION (850 TEMPS DURING TUESDAY PLUNGE TO +6 TO +8C) AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PRODUCES BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US CENTERED NEAR 80 DEG W WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...THOUGH WEAKENING
WITH RISING HEIGHTS.

THOUGH A SHOWER CAN`T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ANY AFTERNOON DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF TO THE WEST...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SOME INSTABILITY AND SOME QG FORCING.

THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST
WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY
TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH 850 TEMPS ONLY
AROUND 8-10C.

850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY SO THAT BY THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL -
UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY..TRENDING MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS
ALREADY OVER THE REGION AND WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE
REGION FROM ONTARIO ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT.

CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE NEAR 80 PERCENT THROUGH ABOUT 15Z TODAY THEN DECREASE.

CHANCES OF THUNDER ARE INCREASING ESPECIALLY FROM SLK TO BTV AND
RUT TO MPV MOVING WEST TO EAST 09-13Z BUT WILL HANDLE WITH
AMENDMENTS AS IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN EXACTLY WHERE THE
THUNDERSTORMS TRACK AND IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER.

VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT SOME BRIEF
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND PERIODS OF MVFR ARE LIKELY ON
BACK SIDE OF RAIN SHOWERS...LASTING UNTIL LATE MORNING WHEN SHOWER
THREAT DECREASES. CEILINGS LIFT BACK TO VFR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING
COLD FRONT IN CANADA. WILL SHOW WITH VCSH/VCTS FOR NOW AS PROBABILITIES
DROP TO 20-30 PERCENT.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DROP THIS EVENING UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.
COULD BE SOME FG/BR CHANCES LATER TONIGHT IF CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS TO OUR NORTH.

LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT TURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY FROM 5 TO
10 KNOTS. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MON - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY SLK/MSS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 550 AM EDT SUNDAY...A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT AND NOW EXTENDS FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY TO THE EASTERN
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE IS NO IMMEDIATE THREAT OF
LIGHTNING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN...EXPECT THESE STORMS TO APPROACH LAKE
CHAMPLAIN BY MID-MORNING. BOATERS AND OTHERS NEAR THE LAKE SHOULD
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR AS THESE STORMS MOVE
THROUGH...WITH OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS
PRODUCING BRIEFLY LOWERED VISIBILITY...AND ROUGH SEAS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
MARINE...LOCONTO









000
FXUS61 KBTV 271058
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
658 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY INTO MONDAY. INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A POTENT MID-SUMMER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
MONDAY WITH A WETTING RAINFALL TO THE REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. GRADUALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 657 AM EDT SUNDAY...PRIMARY CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE TO
ADJUST POPS/WX TO ACCOUNT FOR LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE NORTHERN END OF
THIS LINE APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING A BIT AS IT APPROACHES THE NY
SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. STRONGEST PORTION OF THESE STORMS
EXTEND FROM JUST EAST OF LOWVILLE SOUTH TO BGM...AND EXPECT THESE
STORMS TO NEAR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OVER THE NEXT HOUR AND THEN
INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SEE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT RECENTLY ISSUED. OTHERWISE HAVE BLENDED IN
RECENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA IN WITH GRIDDED FORECAST ELEMENTS.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT SUNDAY FOLLOWS...

ONGOING LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW ENTERING THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY TIED TO AN
INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO EASTERN VERMONT PER WV IMAGERY AND
WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT (SHOWALTERS -1 TO -2). LIGHTER SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF VERMONT. EXPECT THE SOLID LINE OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREENS AND INTO EASTERN
VERMONT THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS. I`VE SHOWN
RELATIVELY HIGH POP (LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL) TO COVER THIS
ONGOING ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING.

FOCUS FOR THE AFTN THEN SHIFTS TOWARDS POTENTIAL FOR RE-DEVELOPING
CONVECTION AND ITS AREAL COVERAGE. FEEL THAT SOME CLEARING IN THE
WAKE OF MORNING SHOWERS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION. I
DON`T THINK THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE AS HIGH AS WHAT
THE 4-KM NAM OR WRF BTV-4 IS SHOWING (NEAR 2000 J/KG CAPE)...BUT
VALUES AROUND HALF THAT SEEM REASONABLE WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6C/KM. WIND FIELDS ALSO
STRENGTHEN TO PRODUCE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 30-35 KTS.
HOWEVER BY AFTN THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE AND A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...IN MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENT/WEAK
HEIGHT RISE REGIME. THAT SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS OR KEEP A MORE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE TO ANY STORMS THAT CAN
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. I THOUGHT ABOUT INTRODUCING ENHANCED
WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL BUT OVERALL LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE SUGGESTED AGAINST DOING SO. IT`S ALSO DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT A FAVORED AREA FOR STRONGER STORMS TODAY...BUT WOULD
THINK EASTERN VERMONT WOULD HAVE A TOUGHER TIME CLEARING AND LOWER
INSTABILITY THERE. I WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS IN
THE HWO HOWEVER. OVERALL QPF TODAY GENERALLY A QUARTER TO AS MUCH
AS A HALF-INCH (LOCALLY HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORM DOWNPOURS).

HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO A SPOT 80 TODAY...GENERALLY
COOLEST ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND IN EASTERN VERMONT WHERE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL TAKE LONGER TO CLEAR (I.E. LESS TIME FOR AFTN
BREAKS IN CLOUDS).

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 437 AM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. MORE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FOR TUESDAY BUT STILL GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNDER A WELL-ADVERTISED 500 MB TROUGH.

TONIGHT: STILL CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM EARLY
EVENING BUT ALREADY LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BECOME EVEN MORE SO BY
DARK. THE STRONG...POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSUMES A
NEGATIVE TILT BY 12Z MONDAY AND INDUCES SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT NEAR
CENTRAL PA LATER TONIGHT. THERE`S SOME QUESTION MARKS AS TO THIS
LOW`S EXACT TRACK ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF POTENTIAL MASS FIELD
CHANGES GIVEN A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
/APPALACHIANS TODAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER AGREEMENT ON A MORE
INTERIOR TRACK (LOW ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION
BY 12Z MONDAY) - AND THERE ARE GOOD SIGNALS IN HIGH RES MODELS OF A
BAND OF MODERATE RAIN ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF SFC LOW`S
TRACK. THAT BAND OF MODERATE RAIN LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN
VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. INITIALLY KEPT
POPS AROUND CHANCE CATEGORY BUT BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD AFTER
MIDNIGHT TO LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LOWS
UNLIKELY TO FALL MUCH UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MAV OR MET MOS GUIDANCE.

MONDAY & MONDAY NIGHT: SFC LOW THEN TRACKS UP THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/GREEN MOUNTAINS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...500 MB TROUGH ALSO
PIVOTS NORTHWARD BUT APPEARS TO CLOSE OFF BY MONDAY EVENING. WITH
THAT EXPECTED LOW TRACK...IT LEAVES CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT IN THE
WARM SECTOR. FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IF GREATER INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED (GENERALLY IS
HIGHEST IN THE 00Z GFS) IN THIS CORRIDOR. NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
TRACK...MORE STRATIFORM MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. I`VE INDICATED
CHANCE THUNDER FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT IN PROGGED WARM
SECTOR...BUT HAVE OTHERWISE KEPT THUNDER OUT ELSEWHERE WHERE IT`S
LIKELY TO BE MORE RAIN-COOLED/STABLE. CATEGORICAL POPS OFFERED
MONDAY WITH GRADUAL TAPER TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. TEMPS ARE TRICKY/DEPENDENT ON LOW TRACK...BUT LIKELY TO BE
BELOW NORMAL AND CLOSER TO NORMAL IF WARM SECTOR CAN GET
ESTABLISHED. HIGHS IN NORTHERN NY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES
IN A CLOUDY/RAINY DAY...AND CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER 70S IN CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT. QPF MONDAY RANGES FROM LESS THAN A HALF-INCH
FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY... .75-1" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT TO JUST
A TICK OVER AN INCH FOR THE ADIRONDACKS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES FROM THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN.

TUESDAY: UPPER TROUGH EXITS WITH STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTHWEST FLOW...MDT COLD
ADVECTION (850 TEMPS DURING TUESDAY PLUNGE TO +6 TO +8C) AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PRODUCES BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US CENTERED NEAR 80 DEG W WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...THOUGH WEAKENING
WITH RISING HEIGHTS.

THOUGH A SHOWER CAN`T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ANY AFTERNOON DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF TO THE WEST...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SOME INSTABILITY AND SOME QG FORCING.

THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST
WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY
TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH 850 TEMPS ONLY
AROUND 8-10C.

850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY SO THAT BY THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL -
UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY..TRENDING MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS
ALREADY OVER THE REGION AND WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE
REGION FROM ONTARIO ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT.

CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE NEAR 80 PERCENT THROUGH ABOUT 15Z TODAY THEN DECREASE.

CHANCES OF THUNDER ARE INCREASING ESPECIALLY FROM SLK TO BTV AND
RUT TO MPV MOVING WEST TO EAST 09-13Z BUT WILL HANDLE WITH
AMENDMENTS AS IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN EXACTLY WHERE THE
THUNDERSTORMS TRACK AND IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER.

VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT SOME BRIEF
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND PERIODS OF MVFR ARE LIKELY ON
BACK SIDE OF RAIN SHOWERS...LASTING UNTIL LATE MORNING WHEN SHOWER
THREAT DECREASES. CEILINGS LIFT BACK TO VFR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING
COLD FRONT IN CANADA. WILL SHOW WITH VCSH/VCTS FOR NOW AS PROBABILITIES
DROP TO 20-30 PERCENT.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DROP THIS EVENING UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.
COULD BE SOME FG/BR CHANCES LATER TONIGHT IF CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS TO OUR NORTH.

LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT TURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY FROM 5 TO
10 KNOTS. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MON - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY SLK/MSS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 550 AM EDT SUNDAY...A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT AND NOW EXTENDS FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY TO THE EASTERN
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE IS NO IMMEDIATE THREAT OF
LIGHTNING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN...EXPECT THESE STORMS TO APPROACH LAKE
CHAMPLAIN BY MID-MORNING. BOATERS AND OTHERS NEAR THE LAKE SHOULD
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR AS THESE STORMS MOVE
THROUGH...WITH OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS
PRODUCING BRIEFLY LOWERED VISIBILITY...AND ROUGH SEAS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
MARINE...LOCONTO










000
FXUS61 KALY 271016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS AND MADE CONSIDERABLE CHANGES TO
THE POPS AND WX GRIDS FOR TODAY. IT NOW APPEARS THAT A WELL
ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE FA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A WARN FRONT ACRS WRN NY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY THEREAFTER UNTIL LATER
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT LATER TONIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FA
WHERE MLMUCAPES APPROACH SEVERAL THOUSAND J/KG AND THIS AREA HAS
BEEN OUTLOOKED AS SLIGHT RISK BY SPC. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
LIKELY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HAVE INDICATED
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF FA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY BTWN 04Z
AND 06Z. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MOHAWK VLY
AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

MEANWHILE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCE 0.8 TO 1.8 IN OF QPF BTWN
05UTC TNGT AND 00UTC TUE, SO...FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF
GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE
CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VICINITY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WORD FOR THE EFP IS RETROGRADE.

PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE 500HPA TROF STILL IN PLACE OVER E NA.
GFS/ECMWF BRING YET ANOTHER SHORT WV AROUND BASE OF TROF LATE WED
INTO THUR WITH INCR CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA AGAIN N & W OF ALB. ITS
MORE LIKE SUFFICIENT INSTAB TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHC N&W OF ALB
OVER HIR TRRN WITH DIURNAL CYCLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...AS THE CUTOFF LIFTS NE INTO QB...THE LAST PIECES OF ENERGY
SHIFT THE TROF WEST...CREATE A CUT OFF...THAT RETROGRADES TO THE
OHIO VLY OR MISS VLY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.

THE ONE ITEM OF CONSENSUS WILL BE THE RIDGING OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
AT ALL LEVELS...WITH 500HPA RIDGE RETROGRADING TWRD THE COAST.
WHILE THERE NOT MUCH SFC FLOW OR FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD...BERMUDA HIGH RETROGRESSION RESULTS IN A S-SE FLOW ALOFT AND
INCR MOISTURE...CLOUDS...TEMPS.

OF NOTE ON GEFS PLUMES THERE`S A TENTH OR TWO OF QPF WED NT/THU ON
A FEW MEMBERS AND 3 MEMBERS WITH SOME QPF LATE SUNDAY 8/3 INTO MON
8/4...OTHERWISE ITS FLAT LINED AFTN MON EVNG ON MOST MEMBERS.

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES...PARTLY CLOUDY SKYS...AND SCT
MAINLY AFTN OR EVNG TSTMS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.

VFR/MVFR CONDS WL GIVE WAY TO MVFR/IFR BTWN 12Z AND 17Z AT THE TAF
SITES AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES EAST. FOR
THIS AFT...SINCE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED HAVE LEFT VCSH IN
THE TAFS. LATER TONIGHT A STEADY RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE TONIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTH
TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 271016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS AND MADE CONSIDERABLE CHANGES TO
THE POPS AND WX GRIDS FOR TODAY. IT NOW APPEARS THAT A WELL
ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE FA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A WARN FRONT ACRS WRN NY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY THEREAFTER UNTIL LATER
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT LATER TONIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FA
WHERE MLMUCAPES APPROACH SEVERAL THOUSAND J/KG AND THIS AREA HAS
BEEN OUTLOOKED AS SLIGHT RISK BY SPC. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
LIKELY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HAVE INDICATED
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF FA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY BTWN 04Z
AND 06Z. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MOHAWK VLY
AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

MEANWHILE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCE 0.8 TO 1.8 IN OF QPF BTWN
05UTC TNGT AND 00UTC TUE, SO...FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF
GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE
CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VICINITY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WORD FOR THE EFP IS RETROGRADE.

PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE 500HPA TROF STILL IN PLACE OVER E NA.
GFS/ECMWF BRING YET ANOTHER SHORT WV AROUND BASE OF TROF LATE WED
INTO THUR WITH INCR CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA AGAIN N & W OF ALB. ITS
MORE LIKE SUFFICIENT INSTAB TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHC N&W OF ALB
OVER HIR TRRN WITH DIURNAL CYCLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...AS THE CUTOFF LIFTS NE INTO QB...THE LAST PIECES OF ENERGY
SHIFT THE TROF WEST...CREATE A CUT OFF...THAT RETROGRADES TO THE
OHIO VLY OR MISS VLY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.

THE ONE ITEM OF CONSENSUS WILL BE THE RIDGING OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
AT ALL LEVELS...WITH 500HPA RIDGE RETROGRADING TWRD THE COAST.
WHILE THERE NOT MUCH SFC FLOW OR FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD...BERMUDA HIGH RETROGRESSION RESULTS IN A S-SE FLOW ALOFT AND
INCR MOISTURE...CLOUDS...TEMPS.

OF NOTE ON GEFS PLUMES THERE`S A TENTH OR TWO OF QPF WED NT/THU ON
A FEW MEMBERS AND 3 MEMBERS WITH SOME QPF LATE SUNDAY 8/3 INTO MON
8/4...OTHERWISE ITS FLAT LINED AFTN MON EVNG ON MOST MEMBERS.

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES...PARTLY CLOUDY SKYS...AND SCT
MAINLY AFTN OR EVNG TSTMS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.

VFR/MVFR CONDS WL GIVE WAY TO MVFR/IFR BTWN 12Z AND 17Z AT THE TAF
SITES AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES EAST. FOR
THIS AFT...SINCE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED HAVE LEFT VCSH IN
THE TAFS. LATER TONIGHT A STEADY RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE TONIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTH
TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 271016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS AND MADE CONSIDERABLE CHANGES TO
THE POPS AND WX GRIDS FOR TODAY. IT NOW APPEARS THAT A WELL
ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE FA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A WARN FRONT ACRS WRN NY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY THEREAFTER UNTIL LATER
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT LATER TONIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FA
WHERE MLMUCAPES APPROACH SEVERAL THOUSAND J/KG AND THIS AREA HAS
BEEN OUTLOOKED AS SLIGHT RISK BY SPC. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
LIKELY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HAVE INDICATED
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF FA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY BTWN 04Z
AND 06Z. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MOHAWK VLY
AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

MEANWHILE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCE 0.8 TO 1.8 IN OF QPF BTWN
05UTC TNGT AND 00UTC TUE, SO...FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF
GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE
CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VICINITY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WORD FOR THE EFP IS RETROGRADE.

PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE 500HPA TROF STILL IN PLACE OVER E NA.
GFS/ECMWF BRING YET ANOTHER SHORT WV AROUND BASE OF TROF LATE WED
INTO THUR WITH INCR CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA AGAIN N & W OF ALB. ITS
MORE LIKE SUFFICIENT INSTAB TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHC N&W OF ALB
OVER HIR TRRN WITH DIURNAL CYCLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...AS THE CUTOFF LIFTS NE INTO QB...THE LAST PIECES OF ENERGY
SHIFT THE TROF WEST...CREATE A CUT OFF...THAT RETROGRADES TO THE
OHIO VLY OR MISS VLY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.

THE ONE ITEM OF CONSENSUS WILL BE THE RIDGING OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
AT ALL LEVELS...WITH 500HPA RIDGE RETROGRADING TWRD THE COAST.
WHILE THERE NOT MUCH SFC FLOW OR FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD...BERMUDA HIGH RETROGRESSION RESULTS IN A S-SE FLOW ALOFT AND
INCR MOISTURE...CLOUDS...TEMPS.

OF NOTE ON GEFS PLUMES THERE`S A TENTH OR TWO OF QPF WED NT/THU ON
A FEW MEMBERS AND 3 MEMBERS WITH SOME QPF LATE SUNDAY 8/3 INTO MON
8/4...OTHERWISE ITS FLAT LINED AFTN MON EVNG ON MOST MEMBERS.

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES...PARTLY CLOUDY SKYS...AND SCT
MAINLY AFTN OR EVNG TSTMS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.

VFR/MVFR CONDS WL GIVE WAY TO MVFR/IFR BTWN 12Z AND 17Z AT THE TAF
SITES AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES EAST. FOR
THIS AFT...SINCE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED HAVE LEFT VCSH IN
THE TAFS. LATER TONIGHT A STEADY RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE TONIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTH
TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KALY 271016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
616 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS AND MADE CONSIDERABLE CHANGES TO
THE POPS AND WX GRIDS FOR TODAY. IT NOW APPEARS THAT A WELL
ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE FA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A WARN FRONT ACRS WRN NY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY THEREAFTER UNTIL LATER
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT LATER TONIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FA
WHERE MLMUCAPES APPROACH SEVERAL THOUSAND J/KG AND THIS AREA HAS
BEEN OUTLOOKED AS SLIGHT RISK BY SPC. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
LIKELY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HAVE INDICATED
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF FA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY BTWN 04Z
AND 06Z. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MOHAWK VLY
AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

MEANWHILE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCE 0.8 TO 1.8 IN OF QPF BTWN
05UTC TNGT AND 00UTC TUE, SO...FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF
GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE
CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VICINITY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WORD FOR THE EFP IS RETROGRADE.

PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE 500HPA TROF STILL IN PLACE OVER E NA.
GFS/ECMWF BRING YET ANOTHER SHORT WV AROUND BASE OF TROF LATE WED
INTO THUR WITH INCR CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA AGAIN N & W OF ALB. ITS
MORE LIKE SUFFICIENT INSTAB TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHC N&W OF ALB
OVER HIR TRRN WITH DIURNAL CYCLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...AS THE CUTOFF LIFTS NE INTO QB...THE LAST PIECES OF ENERGY
SHIFT THE TROF WEST...CREATE A CUT OFF...THAT RETROGRADES TO THE
OHIO VLY OR MISS VLY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.

THE ONE ITEM OF CONSENSUS WILL BE THE RIDGING OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
AT ALL LEVELS...WITH 500HPA RIDGE RETROGRADING TWRD THE COAST.
WHILE THERE NOT MUCH SFC FLOW OR FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD...BERMUDA HIGH RETROGRESSION RESULTS IN A S-SE FLOW ALOFT AND
INCR MOISTURE...CLOUDS...TEMPS.

OF NOTE ON GEFS PLUMES THERE`S A TENTH OR TWO OF QPF WED NT/THU ON
A FEW MEMBERS AND 3 MEMBERS WITH SOME QPF LATE SUNDAY 8/3 INTO MON
8/4...OTHERWISE ITS FLAT LINED AFTN MON EVNG ON MOST MEMBERS.

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES...PARTLY CLOUDY SKYS...AND SCT
MAINLY AFTN OR EVNG TSTMS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.

VFR/MVFR CONDS WL GIVE WAY TO MVFR/IFR BTWN 12Z AND 17Z AT THE TAF
SITES AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES EAST. FOR
THIS AFT...SINCE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED HAVE LEFT VCSH IN
THE TAFS. LATER TONIGHT A STEADY RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE TONIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTH
TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 270951
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
551 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY INTO MONDAY. INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A POTENT MID-SUMMER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
MONDAY WITH A WETTING RAINFALL TO THE REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. GRADUALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 437 AM EDT SUNDAY...ONGOING LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NOW ENTERING THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY TIED TO AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
EASTERN VERMONT PER WV IMAGERY AND WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT
(SHOWALTERS -1 TO -2). LIGHTER SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF
VERMONT. EXPECT THE SOLID LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE GREENS AND INTO EASTERN VERMONT THROUGH THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS. I`VE SHOWN RELATIVELY HIGH POP (LIKELY
TO LOW CATEGORICAL) TO COVER THIS ONGOING ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
MORNING.

FOCUS FOR THE AFTN THEN SHIFTS TOWARDS POTENTIAL FOR RE-DEVELOPING
CONVECTION AND ITS AREAL COVERAGE. FEEL THAT SOME CLEARING IN THE
WAKE OF MORNING SHOWERS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION. I
DON`T THINK THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE AS HIGH AS WHAT
THE 4-KM NAM OR WRF BTV-4 IS SHOWING (NEAR 2000 J/KG CAPE)...BUT
VALUES AROUND HALF THAT SEEM REASONABLE WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6C/KM. WIND FIELDS ALSO
STRENGTHEN TO PRODUCE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 30-35 KTS.
HOWEVER BY AFTN THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE AND A MUCH MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...IN MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENT/WEAK HEIGHT
RISE REGIME. THAT SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS OR KEEP A MORE ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE TO ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. I THOUGHT ABOUT INTRODUCING ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL BUT OVERALL LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE SUGGESTED
AGAINST DOING SO. IT`S ALSO DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT A FAVORED AREA
FOR STRONGER STORMS TODAY...BUT WOULD THINK EASTERN VERMONT WOULD
HAVE A TOUGHER TIME CLEARING AND LOWER INSTABILITY THERE. I WILL
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS IN THE HWO HOWEVER. OVERALL
QPF TODAY GENERALLY A QUARTER TO AS MUCH AS A HALF-INCH (LOCALLY
HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORM DOWNPOURS).

HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO A SPOT 80 TODAY...GENERALLY
COOLEST ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND IN EASTERN VERMONT WHERE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL TAKE LONGER TO CLEAR (I.E. LESS TIME FOR AFTN
BREAKS IN CLOUDS).

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 437 AM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. MORE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FOR TUESDAY BUT STILL GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNDER A WELL-ADVERTISED 500 MB TROUGH.

TONIGHT: STILL CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM EARLY
EVENING BUT ALREADY LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BECOME EVEN MORE SO BY
DARK. THE STRONG...POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSUMES A
NEGATIVE TILT BY 12Z MONDAY AND INDUCES SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT NEAR
CENTRAL PA LATER TONIGHT. THERE`S SOME QUESTION MARKS AS TO THIS
LOW`S EXACT TRACK ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF POTENTIAL MASS FIELD
CHANGES GIVEN A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
/APPALACHIANS TODAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER AGREEMENT ON A MORE
INTERIOR TRACK (LOW ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION
BY 12Z MONDAY) - AND THERE ARE GOOD SIGNALS IN HIGH RES MODELS OF A
BAND OF MODERATE RAIN ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF SFC LOW`S
TRACK. THAT BAND OF MODERATE RAIN LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN
VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. INITIALLY KEPT
POPS AROUND CHANCE CATEGORY BUT BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD AFTER
MIDNIGHT TO LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LOWS
UNLIKELY TO FALL MUCH UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MAV OR MET MOS GUIDANCE.

MONDAY & MONDAY NIGHT: SFC LOW THEN TRACKS UP THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/GREEN MOUNTAINS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...500 MB TROUGH ALSO
PIVOTS NORTHWARD BUT APPEARS TO CLOSE OFF BY MONDAY EVENING. WITH
THAT EXPECTED LOW TRACK...IT LEAVES CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT IN THE
WARM SECTOR. FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IF GREATER INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED (GENERALLY IS
HIGHEST IN THE 00Z GFS) IN THIS CORRIDOR. NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
TRACK...MORE STRATIFORM MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. I`VE INDICATED
CHANCE THUNDER FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT IN PROGGED WARM
SECTOR...BUT HAVE OTHERWISE KEPT THUNDER OUT ELSEWHERE WHERE IT`S
LIKELY TO BE MORE RAIN-COOLED/STABLE. CATEGORICAL POPS OFFERED
MONDAY WITH GRADUAL TAPER TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. TEMPS ARE TRICKY/DEPENDENT ON LOW TRACK...BUT LIKELY TO BE
BELOW NORMAL AND CLOSER TO NORMAL IF WARM SECTOR CAN GET
ESTABLISHED. HIGHS IN NORTHERN NY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES
IN A CLOUDY/RAINY DAY...AND CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER 70S IN CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT. QPF MONDAY RANGES FROM LESS THAN A HALF-INCH
FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY... .75-1" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT TO JUST
A TICK OVER AN INCH FOR THE ADIRONDACKS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES FROM THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN.

TUESDAY: UPPER TROUGH EXITS WITH STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTHWEST FLOW...MDT COLD
ADVECTION (850 TEMPS DURING TUESDAY PLUNGE TO +6 TO +8C) AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PRODUCES BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US CENTERED NEAR 80 DEG W WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...THOUGH WEAKENING
WITH RISING HEIGHTS.

THOUGH A SHOWER CAN`T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ANY AFTERNOON DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF TO THE WEST...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SOME INSTABILITY AND SOME QG FORCING.

THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST
WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY
TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH 850 TEMPS ONLY
AROUND 8-10C.

850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY SO THAT BY THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL -
UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY..TRENDING MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS
ALREADY OVER THE REGION AND WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE
REGION FROM ONTARIO ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT.

CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE NEAR 80 PERCENT THROUGH ABOUT 15Z TODAY THEN DECREASE.

CHANCES OF THUNDER ARE INCREASING ESPECIALLY FROM SLK TO BTV AND
RUT TO MPV MOVING WEST TO EAST 09-13Z BUT WILL HANDLE WITH
AMENDMENTS AS IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN EXACTLY WHERE THE
THUNDERSTORMS TRACK AND IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER.

VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT SOME BRIEF
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND PERIODS OF MVFR ARE LIKELY ON
BACK SIDE OF RAIN SHOWERS...LASTING UNTIL LATE MORNING WHEN SHOWER
THREAT DECREASES. CEILINGS LIFT BACK TO VFR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING
COLD FRONT IN CANADA. WILL SHOW WITH VCSH/VCTS FOR NOW AS PROBABILITIES
DROP TO 20-30 PERCENT.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DROP THIS EVENING UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.
COULD BE SOME FG/BR CHANCES LATER TONIGHT IF CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS TO OUR NORTH.

LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT TURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY FROM 5 TO
10 KNOTS. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MON - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY SLK/MSS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 550 AM EDT SUNDAY...A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT AND NOW EXTENDS FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY TO THE EASTERN
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE IS NO IMMEDIATE THREAT OF
LIGHTNING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN...EXPECT THESE STORMS TO APPROACH LAKE
CHAMPLAIN BY MID-MORNING. BOATERS AND OTHERS NEAR THE LAKE SHOULD
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR AS THESE STORMS MOVE
THROUGH...WITH OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS
PRODUCING BRIEFLY LOWERED VISIBILITY...AND ROUGH SEAS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
MARINE...LOCONTO













000
FXUS61 KBTV 270951
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
551 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY INTO MONDAY. INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A POTENT MID-SUMMER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
MONDAY WITH A WETTING RAINFALL TO THE REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. GRADUALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 437 AM EDT SUNDAY...ONGOING LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NOW ENTERING THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY TIED TO AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
EASTERN VERMONT PER WV IMAGERY AND WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT
(SHOWALTERS -1 TO -2). LIGHTER SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF
VERMONT. EXPECT THE SOLID LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE GREENS AND INTO EASTERN VERMONT THROUGH THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS. I`VE SHOWN RELATIVELY HIGH POP (LIKELY
TO LOW CATEGORICAL) TO COVER THIS ONGOING ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
MORNING.

FOCUS FOR THE AFTN THEN SHIFTS TOWARDS POTENTIAL FOR RE-DEVELOPING
CONVECTION AND ITS AREAL COVERAGE. FEEL THAT SOME CLEARING IN THE
WAKE OF MORNING SHOWERS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION. I
DON`T THINK THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE AS HIGH AS WHAT
THE 4-KM NAM OR WRF BTV-4 IS SHOWING (NEAR 2000 J/KG CAPE)...BUT
VALUES AROUND HALF THAT SEEM REASONABLE WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6C/KM. WIND FIELDS ALSO
STRENGTHEN TO PRODUCE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 30-35 KTS.
HOWEVER BY AFTN THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE AND A MUCH MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...IN MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENT/WEAK HEIGHT
RISE REGIME. THAT SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS OR KEEP A MORE ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE TO ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. I THOUGHT ABOUT INTRODUCING ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL BUT OVERALL LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE SUGGESTED
AGAINST DOING SO. IT`S ALSO DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT A FAVORED AREA
FOR STRONGER STORMS TODAY...BUT WOULD THINK EASTERN VERMONT WOULD
HAVE A TOUGHER TIME CLEARING AND LOWER INSTABILITY THERE. I WILL
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS IN THE HWO HOWEVER. OVERALL
QPF TODAY GENERALLY A QUARTER TO AS MUCH AS A HALF-INCH (LOCALLY
HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORM DOWNPOURS).

HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 70S TO A SPOT 80 TODAY...GENERALLY
COOLEST ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND IN EASTERN VERMONT WHERE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL TAKE LONGER TO CLEAR (I.E. LESS TIME FOR AFTN
BREAKS IN CLOUDS).

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 437 AM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. MORE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FOR TUESDAY BUT STILL GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH THE
NORTH COUNTRY UNDER A WELL-ADVERTISED 500 MB TROUGH.

TONIGHT: STILL CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM EARLY
EVENING BUT ALREADY LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BECOME EVEN MORE SO BY
DARK. THE STRONG...POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSUMES A
NEGATIVE TILT BY 12Z MONDAY AND INDUCES SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT NEAR
CENTRAL PA LATER TONIGHT. THERE`S SOME QUESTION MARKS AS TO THIS
LOW`S EXACT TRACK ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF POTENTIAL MASS FIELD
CHANGES GIVEN A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
/APPALACHIANS TODAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER AGREEMENT ON A MORE
INTERIOR TRACK (LOW ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION
BY 12Z MONDAY) - AND THERE ARE GOOD SIGNALS IN HIGH RES MODELS OF A
BAND OF MODERATE RAIN ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF SFC LOW`S
TRACK. THAT BAND OF MODERATE RAIN LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN
VERMONT INTO THE ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. INITIALLY KEPT
POPS AROUND CHANCE CATEGORY BUT BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD AFTER
MIDNIGHT TO LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LOWS
UNLIKELY TO FALL MUCH UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MAV OR MET MOS GUIDANCE.

MONDAY & MONDAY NIGHT: SFC LOW THEN TRACKS UP THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY/GREEN MOUNTAINS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...500 MB TROUGH ALSO
PIVOTS NORTHWARD BUT APPEARS TO CLOSE OFF BY MONDAY EVENING. WITH
THAT EXPECTED LOW TRACK...IT LEAVES CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT IN THE
WARM SECTOR. FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IF GREATER INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED (GENERALLY IS
HIGHEST IN THE 00Z GFS) IN THIS CORRIDOR. NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
TRACK...MORE STRATIFORM MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. I`VE INDICATED
CHANCE THUNDER FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT IN PROGGED WARM
SECTOR...BUT HAVE OTHERWISE KEPT THUNDER OUT ELSEWHERE WHERE IT`S
LIKELY TO BE MORE RAIN-COOLED/STABLE. CATEGORICAL POPS OFFERED
MONDAY WITH GRADUAL TAPER TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. TEMPS ARE TRICKY/DEPENDENT ON LOW TRACK...BUT LIKELY TO BE
BELOW NORMAL AND CLOSER TO NORMAL IF WARM SECTOR CAN GET
ESTABLISHED. HIGHS IN NORTHERN NY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES
IN A CLOUDY/RAINY DAY...AND CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER 70S IN CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT. QPF MONDAY RANGES FROM LESS THAN A HALF-INCH
FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY... .75-1" FOR MUCH OF VERMONT TO JUST
A TICK OVER AN INCH FOR THE ADIRONDACKS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES FROM THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN.

TUESDAY: UPPER TROUGH EXITS WITH STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTHWEST FLOW...MDT COLD
ADVECTION (850 TEMPS DURING TUESDAY PLUNGE TO +6 TO +8C) AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PRODUCES BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US CENTERED NEAR 80 DEG W WITH A RIDGE OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...THOUGH WEAKENING
WITH RISING HEIGHTS.

THOUGH A SHOWER CAN`T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ANY AFTERNOON DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF TO THE WEST...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT SWINGS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SOME INSTABILITY AND SOME QG FORCING.

THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS BUT REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT RETROGRADES A FEW DEGREES WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT, RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST
WITH A BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING AT THE SURFACE...WHICH IS FAIRLY
TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY AS AREA REMAINS LOCKED INTO THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF.

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH 850 TEMPS ONLY
AROUND 8-10C.

850 MB TEMPS WARM A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY SO THAT BY THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE 12-14C. WITH PARTIAL SUN UNDER DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECT HIGHS MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL -
UPPER 70S LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY..TRENDING MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS
ALREADY OVER THE REGION AND WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE
REGION FROM ONTARIO ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT.

CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE NEAR 80 PERCENT THROUGH ABOUT 15Z TODAY THEN DECREASE.

CHANCES OF THUNDER ARE INCREASING ESPECIALLY FROM SLK TO BTV AND
RUT TO MPV MOVING WEST TO EAST 09-13Z BUT WILL HANDLE WITH
AMENDMENTS AS IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN EXACTLY WHERE THE
THUNDERSTORMS TRACK AND IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER.

VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT SOME BRIEF
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND PERIODS OF MVFR ARE LIKELY ON
BACK SIDE OF RAIN SHOWERS...LASTING UNTIL LATE MORNING WHEN SHOWER
THREAT DECREASES. CEILINGS LIFT BACK TO VFR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING
COLD FRONT IN CANADA. WILL SHOW WITH VCSH/VCTS FOR NOW AS PROBABILITIES
DROP TO 20-30 PERCENT.

SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES DROP THIS EVENING UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.
COULD BE SOME FG/BR CHANCES LATER TONIGHT IF CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL AS FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS TO OUR NORTH.

LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT TURN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY FROM 5 TO
10 KNOTS. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MON - 12Z TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE.

12Z TUE - 12Z THU...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

12Z THU ONWARD...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY SLK/MSS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 550 AM EDT SUNDAY...A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT AND NOW EXTENDS FROM ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY TO THE EASTERN
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE IS NO IMMEDIATE THREAT OF
LIGHTNING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN...EXPECT THESE STORMS TO APPROACH LAKE
CHAMPLAIN BY MID-MORNING. BOATERS AND OTHERS NEAR THE LAKE SHOULD
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR AS THESE STORMS MOVE
THROUGH...WITH OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS
PRODUCING BRIEFLY LOWERED VISIBILITY...AND ROUGH SEAS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
MARINE...LOCONTO












000
FXUS61 KALY 270924
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
524 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS AND MADE CONSIDERABLE CHANGES TO
THE POPS AND WX GRIDS FOR TODAY. IT NOW APPEARS THAT A WELL
ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE FA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A WARN FRONT ACRS WRN NY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY THEREAFTER UNTIL LATER
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT LATER TONIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FA
WHERE MLMUCAPES APPROACH SEVERAL THOUSAND J/KG AND THIS AREA HAS
BEEN OUTLOOKED AS SLIGHT RISK BY SPC. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
LIKELY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HAVE INDICATED
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF FA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY BTWN 04Z
AND 06Z. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MOHAWK VLY
AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

MEANWHILE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCE 0.8 TO 1.8 IN OF QPF BTWN
05UTC TNGT AND 00UTC TUE, SO...FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF
GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE
CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VICINITY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WORD FOR THE EFP IS RETROGRADE.

PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE 500HPA TROF STILL IN PLACE OVER E NA.
GFS/ECMWF BRING YET ANOTHER SHORT WV AROUND BASE OF TROF LATE WED
INTO THUR WITH INCR CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA AGAIN N & W OF ALB. ITS
MORE LIKE SUFFICIENT INSTAB TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHC N&W OF ALB
OVER HIR TRRN WITH DIURNAL CYCLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...AS THE CUTOFF LIFTS NE INTO QB...THE LAST PIECES OF ENERGY
SHIFT THE TROF WEST...CREATE A CUT OFF...THAT RETROGRADES TO THE
OHIO VLY OR MISS VLY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.

THE ONE ITEM OF CONSENSUS WILL BE THE RIDGING OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
AT ALL LEVELS...WITH 500HPA RIDGE RETROGRADING TWRD THE COAST.
WHILE THERE NOT MUCH SFC FLOW OR FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD...BERMUDA HIGH RETROGRESSION RESULTS IN A S-SE FLOW ALOFT AND
INCR MOISTURE...CLOUDS...TEMPS.

OF NOTE ON GEFS PLUMES THERE`S A TENTH OR TWO OF QPF WED NT/THU ON
A FEW MEMBERS AND 3 MEMBERS WITH SOME QPF LATE SUNDAY 8/3 INTO MON
8/4...OTHERWISE ITS FLAT LINED AFTN MON EVNG ON MOST MEMBERS.

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES...PARTLY CLOUDY SKYS...AND SCT
MAINLY AFTN OR EVNG TSTMS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD MAINLY IMPACTING KGFL.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD
UNTIL THE FA IS IMPACTED BY A SHORT WAVE TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE TONIGHT. HAVE PLACED MVFR CONDS IN THE TAFS
BTWN 03Z AND 05Z WITH THE CONDS DETERIORATING FIRST AT KPOU AND LATER
AT ALB...KPSF AND KGFL.

FOR TODAY...SINCE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA LATE AFTERNOON HAVE LEFT VCSH
IN THE TAFS.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 KTS OR LESS OR CALM
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT THE WINDS TO
INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20
KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTH
TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







000
FXUS61 KALY 270924
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
524 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS AND MADE CONSIDERABLE CHANGES TO
THE POPS AND WX GRIDS FOR TODAY. IT NOW APPEARS THAT A WELL
ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE FA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A WARN FRONT ACRS WRN NY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY THEREAFTER UNTIL LATER
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS
JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT LATER TONIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FA
WHERE MLMUCAPES APPROACH SEVERAL THOUSAND J/KG AND THIS AREA HAS
BEEN OUTLOOKED AS SLIGHT RISK BY SPC. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
LIKELY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HAVE INDICATED
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF FA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY BTWN 04Z
AND 06Z. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MOHAWK VLY
AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

MEANWHILE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCE 0.8 TO 1.8 IN OF QPF BTWN
05UTC TNGT AND 00UTC TUE, SO...FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF
GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE
CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH.

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VICINITY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WORD FOR THE EFP IS RETROGRADE.

PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE 500HPA TROF STILL IN PLACE OVER E NA.
GFS/ECMWF BRING YET ANOTHER SHORT WV AROUND BASE OF TROF LATE WED
INTO THUR WITH INCR CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA AGAIN N & W OF ALB. ITS
MORE LIKE SUFFICIENT INSTAB TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHC N&W OF ALB
OVER HIR TRRN WITH DIURNAL CYCLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...AS THE CUTOFF LIFTS NE INTO QB...THE LAST PIECES OF ENERGY
SHIFT THE TROF WEST...CREATE A CUT OFF...THAT RETROGRADES TO THE
OHIO VLY OR MISS VLY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.

THE ONE ITEM OF CONSENSUS WILL BE THE RIDGING OF THE B