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000
FXUS61 KBTV 221921
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
321 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND AND THEN STICK AROUND. THOUGH THERE MAY BE A SPOT
SHOWER SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WILL FEATURE LOTS OF SUN AND INCREASING WARMTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...LOTS O` CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
THE COMMON FEATURES FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AT THIS TIME.
ALL THANKS TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. SHOWERS ARE SLOW MOVING, BUT THUS FAR NO EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL TOTALS -- PERHAPS SOME SPOT AMOUNTS UP TO 1/2". NOT A LOT
OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR THE SHOWERS, SO AS WE REACH CLOSER TO
SUNSET, EXPECT THE COVERAGE TO DIMINISH.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT LATER TONIGHT, A DRIER
MID/UPPER LEVEL AIRMASS (EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NORTH OF
THE BORDER) WILL START TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN/EASTERN VERMONT. AT
THAT TIME WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME CLEARING, HOWEVER GIVEN THE
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS, I WOULD EXPECT FOG TO QUICKLY
DEVELOP. THUS HAVE ADDED IN MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS FAVORED
VALLEY AREAS OF VERMONT.

WITH ALL THE CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES WON`T FALL TOO MUCH OR TOO
QUICKLY. THINK 50S ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...STILL LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY DECENT
WEEKEND, WITH JUST ONE SMALL BUG-A-BOO. WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN
SLOW TO EVOLVE, WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. WITH
STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND, ANTICIPATE
DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH TOPOGRAPHIC INFLUENCES SHOULD RESULT
IN A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS FORMING. APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF
THIS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. HAVE PAINTED IN LOW RAINFALL
CHANCES, GENERALLY 15-25% FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THAT AREA.
CERTAINLY NOT GOING TO BE A WASHOUT.

OTHERWISE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF 11-12C, THIS SHOULD SUPPORT LOWER ELEVATION
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, AND FAVOR AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SINKING IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL SET UP A CLEAR/CALM NIGHT. WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER STILL
EXPECTED TO BE MOIST DUE TO RECENT RAINS, THIS WILL SET UP A
PERFECT SITUATION FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP -- ESPECIALLY
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 50S, WITH
COLDER HOLLOWS INTO THE 40S.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE A SPECTACULAR WEATHER DAY (WELL, FOR SUMMER
FANS). HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL LEAD TO A DRY DAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES INTO THE 12-14C RANGE. THUS LOTS OF 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL
BE THE COMMON RESULT.

SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR/CALM
CONDITIONS, SO ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN FALL BACK INTO THE 50S (40S IN THE COLDEST
SPOTS).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
FCSTS...WITH LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND A MAINLY DRY FCST THRU TUES. STILL SOME LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
GFS SLOWER WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROF AND STRONGER WITH MID/UPPER
LVL RIDGE ACRS THE NE CONUS...WHILE ECMWF AND GEM ARE FASTER AND
SUPPRESS THE HEAT TO OUR SOUTH SOONER. WL TREND TWD A EURO
SOLUTION FOR THIS PACKAGE...WHICH WL PLACE THE WARMEST TEMPS ACRS
OUR CWA ON WEDS...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVING LATE
WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 13-15C ON TUES AND
BTWN 14-16C ON WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A
FEW READINGS NEAR 90 POSSIBLE IN THE UHI AREAS OF THE CPV/SLV. IN
ADDITION...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WL HELP INCREASE THE HUMIDITY
LEVELS BY MID WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY. HAVE NOTED BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON TUES ACRS THE SLV WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...BUT MID LVL S/W ENERGY IS WEAK AND DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS MINIMAL...THEREFORE WL KEEP DRY. BETTER MOISTURE
AND S/W ENERGY ARRIVES LATE WEDS ACRS OUR NORTHWEST CWA...SO HAVE
INCLUDED CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SHOW CAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG...BUT BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS TOO OUR NORTH...SO NOT
EXPECTING ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD SVR ON WEDS. CHCS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS CONTS ON THURS WITH SFC COLD FRNT LOCATED ACRS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND MID LVL S/W ENERGY AND MOISTURE MOVING ACRS
OUR CWA. WL MENTION HIGH CHC POPS ON THURS...AND DROP TEMPS BACK
INTO THE 70S MTNS TO L/M 80S VALLEYS WITH MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP
ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE...EARLY THIS WEEK WL FEATURE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MVFR TO VFR CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAINSHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL. TREATED SHOWERS WITH VCSH AND WILL UPDATE TAFS AS THEY MOVE
INTO AERODROME. CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY RAISE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THEN EXPECT SOME SOME LOWERING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. DURING OVERNIGHT OURS SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING WILL
MOVE IN FROM NORTHEAST. FIRST IN VT THEN MOVE INTO NY BY DAYBREAK.
TIMING IS KEY HERE...AND DRYING ALOFT WILL ALLOW MORE RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND LIFR FOG FORMATION AT KMPV. ALSO INCREASE FOG PRODUCTION
AT KSLK...DRYING WILL BE CLOSE TO SUNRISE BUT THAT PLACE IS PRONE
TO FOG IN AND BROUGHT LIFR TO KSLK TOWARD MORNING. OTHERWISE TREND ON
SATURDAY IS TOWARD BREAKING OF OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND P6SM.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT
AREAS IFR/LIFR IN FOG SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. RIDGE BUILDS INTO
REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH NO PRECIP AND VERY FEW CLOUDS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...HANSON






000
FXUS61 KBTV 221921
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
321 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND AND THEN STICK AROUND. THOUGH THERE MAY BE A SPOT
SHOWER SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WILL FEATURE LOTS OF SUN AND INCREASING WARMTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...LOTS O` CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
THE COMMON FEATURES FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AT THIS TIME.
ALL THANKS TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. SHOWERS ARE SLOW MOVING, BUT THUS FAR NO EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL TOTALS -- PERHAPS SOME SPOT AMOUNTS UP TO 1/2". NOT A LOT
OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR THE SHOWERS, SO AS WE REACH CLOSER TO
SUNSET, EXPECT THE COVERAGE TO DIMINISH.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT LATER TONIGHT, A DRIER
MID/UPPER LEVEL AIRMASS (EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NORTH OF
THE BORDER) WILL START TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN/EASTERN VERMONT. AT
THAT TIME WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME CLEARING, HOWEVER GIVEN THE
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS, I WOULD EXPECT FOG TO QUICKLY
DEVELOP. THUS HAVE ADDED IN MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS FAVORED
VALLEY AREAS OF VERMONT.

WITH ALL THE CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES WON`T FALL TOO MUCH OR TOO
QUICKLY. THINK 50S ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...STILL LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY DECENT
WEEKEND, WITH JUST ONE SMALL BUG-A-BOO. WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN
SLOW TO EVOLVE, WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. WITH
STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND, ANTICIPATE
DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH TOPOGRAPHIC INFLUENCES SHOULD RESULT
IN A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS FORMING. APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF
THIS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. HAVE PAINTED IN LOW RAINFALL
CHANCES, GENERALLY 15-25% FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THAT AREA.
CERTAINLY NOT GOING TO BE A WASHOUT.

OTHERWISE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF 11-12C, THIS SHOULD SUPPORT LOWER ELEVATION
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, AND FAVOR AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SINKING IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL SET UP A CLEAR/CALM NIGHT. WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER STILL
EXPECTED TO BE MOIST DUE TO RECENT RAINS, THIS WILL SET UP A
PERFECT SITUATION FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP -- ESPECIALLY
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 50S, WITH
COLDER HOLLOWS INTO THE 40S.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE A SPECTACULAR WEATHER DAY (WELL, FOR SUMMER
FANS). HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL LEAD TO A DRY DAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES INTO THE 12-14C RANGE. THUS LOTS OF 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL
BE THE COMMON RESULT.

SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR/CALM
CONDITIONS, SO ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN FALL BACK INTO THE 50S (40S IN THE COLDEST
SPOTS).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
FCSTS...WITH LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND A MAINLY DRY FCST THRU TUES. STILL SOME LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
GFS SLOWER WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROF AND STRONGER WITH MID/UPPER
LVL RIDGE ACRS THE NE CONUS...WHILE ECMWF AND GEM ARE FASTER AND
SUPPRESS THE HEAT TO OUR SOUTH SOONER. WL TREND TWD A EURO
SOLUTION FOR THIS PACKAGE...WHICH WL PLACE THE WARMEST TEMPS ACRS
OUR CWA ON WEDS...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVING LATE
WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 13-15C ON TUES AND
BTWN 14-16C ON WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A
FEW READINGS NEAR 90 POSSIBLE IN THE UHI AREAS OF THE CPV/SLV. IN
ADDITION...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WL HELP INCREASE THE HUMIDITY
LEVELS BY MID WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY. HAVE NOTED BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON TUES ACRS THE SLV WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...BUT MID LVL S/W ENERGY IS WEAK AND DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS MINIMAL...THEREFORE WL KEEP DRY. BETTER MOISTURE
AND S/W ENERGY ARRIVES LATE WEDS ACRS OUR NORTHWEST CWA...SO HAVE
INCLUDED CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SHOW CAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG...BUT BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS TOO OUR NORTH...SO NOT
EXPECTING ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD SVR ON WEDS. CHCS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS CONTS ON THURS WITH SFC COLD FRNT LOCATED ACRS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND MID LVL S/W ENERGY AND MOISTURE MOVING ACRS
OUR CWA. WL MENTION HIGH CHC POPS ON THURS...AND DROP TEMPS BACK
INTO THE 70S MTNS TO L/M 80S VALLEYS WITH MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP
ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE...EARLY THIS WEEK WL FEATURE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MVFR TO VFR CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAINSHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL. TREATED SHOWERS WITH VCSH AND WILL UPDATE TAFS AS THEY MOVE
INTO AERODROME. CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY RAISE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THEN EXPECT SOME SOME LOWERING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. DURING OVERNIGHT OURS SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING WILL
MOVE IN FROM NORTHEAST. FIRST IN VT THEN MOVE INTO NY BY DAYBREAK.
TIMING IS KEY HERE...AND DRYING ALOFT WILL ALLOW MORE RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND LIFR FOG FORMATION AT KMPV. ALSO INCREASE FOG PRODUCTION
AT KSLK...DRYING WILL BE CLOSE TO SUNRISE BUT THAT PLACE IS PRONE
TO FOG IN AND BROUGHT LIFR TO KSLK TOWARD MORNING. OTHERWISE TREND ON
SATURDAY IS TOWARD BREAKING OF OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND P6SM.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT
AREAS IFR/LIFR IN FOG SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. RIDGE BUILDS INTO
REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH NO PRECIP AND VERY FEW CLOUDS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...HANSON







000
FXUS61 KBTV 221734
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
134 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND AND THEN STICK AROUND. THOUGH THERE MAY BE A SPOT
SHOWER SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WILL FEATURE LOTS OF SUN AND INCREASING WARMTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT FRIDAY...SO FAR THINGS ARE PRIMARILY AS EXPECTED.
CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH AND TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS ARE STRUGGLING
TO RISE. WENT AHEAD AND KNOCKED A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF THE HIGHS,
EXCEPT FOR OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. 1PM TEMPERATURES WERE
ALREADY CLOSE TO PREDICTED HIGHS AND GIVEN SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER, THEY MIGHT GET A LITTLE WARMER. HOWEVER THOSE SAME
BREAKS OF SUN ARE SELF-DESTRUCTIVE AND LEADING TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE OVERALL POP GRIDS TO HIGHLIGHT A
LITTLE MORE WHERE THE SHOWERS WILL BE THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHICH I
EXPECT TO BE THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.

I WENT AHEAD AND ADDED IN SOME PATCHY FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
RIVER VALLEY AREAS IN EASTERN VERMONT. SOME CLEARING LATE TONIGHT
SHOULD LEAD TO QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF FOG.


REMAINDER FROM LATE MORNING DISCUSSION...

LATE MORNING UPDATE TO MAKE MODIFICATIONS BASED ON LATEST
RADAR/SATELLITE/SURFACE OBSERVATION TRENDS.

AREA IS PRETTY MUCH UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW. AS SUCH, WE`VE GOT
ALL THE CLOUDS AND VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT. MOISTURE (CLOUD) DEPTH IS
ABOUT 15,000FT, SO DON`T THINK DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE ABLE TO DO
MUCH WITH REGARD TO MAKING THE CLOUDS "MELT" AWAY. IN FACT, THE
FEW BREAKS WE DO SEE ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND WESTERN
SIDES OF THE HIGH PEAKS IN THE `DACKS ARE DUE TO WEAK DOWNSLOPING
DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.

NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY DUE TO ALL THE CLOUDS, AND NOT EXPECTING
MUCH ADDITIONAL TO DEVELOP. THUS FEEL THE CHANCE FOR ANY T-STORMS
IS QUITE SMALL. HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION. THERE ALSO ISN`T MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FORCING EITHER, SO SHOWERS WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO
FORM ALMOST ANYWHERE, THOUGH DON`T EXPECT COVERAGE TO BECOME TOO
WIDESPREAD. SO 40-50% POPS SEEM REASONABLE.

ALSO WITH THE UPPER LOW ON TOP OF THE AREA, THERE IS VERY LITTLE
STEERING FLOW, SO THE FEW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL TEND TO MOVE
VERY LITTLE. THAT COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS, BUT SINCE
I DON`T EXPECT DEEP CONVECTION, WE SHOULDN`T HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PROBLEMS. THUS DID NOT INCLUDE "HEAVY RAINFALL" MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH. CURRENT
FORECAST WAS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE, BUT IT`S POSSIBLE I
MAY NEED TO LOWER THE HIGHS A LITTLE BIT. CURRENTLY 67F HERE AT
BTV WITH OUR FORECAST BEING 71F. WE SHALL SEE...

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD SOUTH
FROM CANADA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS
OVER THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS...SO HAVE INCLUDED A
MENTION OF RADIATION FOG DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY ACROSS THE USUAL FOG PRONE SHELTERED VALLEY OF EASTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT ...AS WELL AS THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
FCSTS...WITH LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND A MAINLY DRY FCST THRU TUES. STILL SOME LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
GFS SLOWER WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROF AND STRONGER WITH MID/UPPER
LVL RIDGE ACRS THE NE CONUS...WHILE ECMWF AND GEM ARE FASTER AND
SUPPRESS THE HEAT TO OUR SOUTH SOONER. WL TREND TWD A EURO
SOLUTION FOR THIS PACKAGE...WHICH WL PLACE THE WARMEST TEMPS ACRS
OUR CWA ON WEDS...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVING LATE
WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 13-15C ON TUES AND
BTWN 14-16C ON WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A
FEW READINGS NEAR 90 POSSIBLE IN THE UHI AREAS OF THE CPV/SLV. IN
ADDITION...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WL HELP INCREASE THE HUMIDITY
LEVELS BY MID WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY. HAVE NOTED BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON TUES ACRS THE SLV WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...BUT MID LVL S/W ENERGY IS WEAK AND DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS MINIMAL...THEREFORE WL KEEP DRY. BETTER MOISTURE
AND S/W ENERGY ARRIVES LATE WEDS ACRS OUR NORTHWEST CWA...SO HAVE
INCLUDED CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SHOW CAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG...BUT BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS TOO OUR NORTH...SO NOT
EXPECTING ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD SVR ON WEDS. CHCS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS CONTS ON THURS WITH SFC COLD FRNT LOCATED ACRS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND MID LVL S/W ENERGY AND MOISTURE MOVING ACRS
OUR CWA. WL MENTION HIGH CHC POPS ON THURS...AND DROP TEMPS BACK
INTO THE 70S MTNS TO L/M 80S VALLEYS WITH MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP
ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE...EARLY THIS WEEK WL FEATURE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MVFR TO VFR CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAINSHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL. TREATED SHOWERS WITH VCSH AND WILL UPDATE TAFS AS THEY MOVE
INTO AERODROME. CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY RAISE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THEN EXPECT SOME SOME LOWERING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. DURING OVERNIGHT OURS SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING WILL
MOVE IN FROM NORTHEAST. FIRST IN VT THEN MOVE INTO NY BY DAYBREAK.
TIMING IS KEY HERE...AND DRYING ALOFT WILL ALLOW MORE RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND LIFR FOG FORMATION AT KMPV. ALSO INCREASE FOG PRODUCTION
AT KSLK...DRYING WILL BE CLOSE TO SUNRISE BUT THAT PLACE IS PRONE
TO FOG IN AND BROUGHT LIFR TO KSLK TOWARD MORNING. OTHERWISE TREND ON
SATURDAY IS TOWARD BREAKING OF OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND P6SM.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT
AREAS IFR/LIFR IN FOG SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. RIDGE BUILDS INTO
REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH NO PRECIP AND VERY FEW CLOUDS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...HANSON







000
FXUS61 KBTV 221734
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
134 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND AND THEN STICK AROUND. THOUGH THERE MAY BE A SPOT
SHOWER SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WILL FEATURE LOTS OF SUN AND INCREASING WARMTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT FRIDAY...SO FAR THINGS ARE PRIMARILY AS EXPECTED.
CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH AND TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS ARE STRUGGLING
TO RISE. WENT AHEAD AND KNOCKED A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF THE HIGHS,
EXCEPT FOR OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. 1PM TEMPERATURES WERE
ALREADY CLOSE TO PREDICTED HIGHS AND GIVEN SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER, THEY MIGHT GET A LITTLE WARMER. HOWEVER THOSE SAME
BREAKS OF SUN ARE SELF-DESTRUCTIVE AND LEADING TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE OVERALL POP GRIDS TO HIGHLIGHT A
LITTLE MORE WHERE THE SHOWERS WILL BE THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHICH I
EXPECT TO BE THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.

I WENT AHEAD AND ADDED IN SOME PATCHY FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
RIVER VALLEY AREAS IN EASTERN VERMONT. SOME CLEARING LATE TONIGHT
SHOULD LEAD TO QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF FOG.


REMAINDER FROM LATE MORNING DISCUSSION...

LATE MORNING UPDATE TO MAKE MODIFICATIONS BASED ON LATEST
RADAR/SATELLITE/SURFACE OBSERVATION TRENDS.

AREA IS PRETTY MUCH UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW. AS SUCH, WE`VE GOT
ALL THE CLOUDS AND VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT. MOISTURE (CLOUD) DEPTH IS
ABOUT 15,000FT, SO DON`T THINK DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE ABLE TO DO
MUCH WITH REGARD TO MAKING THE CLOUDS "MELT" AWAY. IN FACT, THE
FEW BREAKS WE DO SEE ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND WESTERN
SIDES OF THE HIGH PEAKS IN THE `DACKS ARE DUE TO WEAK DOWNSLOPING
DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.

NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY DUE TO ALL THE CLOUDS, AND NOT EXPECTING
MUCH ADDITIONAL TO DEVELOP. THUS FEEL THE CHANCE FOR ANY T-STORMS
IS QUITE SMALL. HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION. THERE ALSO ISN`T MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FORCING EITHER, SO SHOWERS WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO
FORM ALMOST ANYWHERE, THOUGH DON`T EXPECT COVERAGE TO BECOME TOO
WIDESPREAD. SO 40-50% POPS SEEM REASONABLE.

ALSO WITH THE UPPER LOW ON TOP OF THE AREA, THERE IS VERY LITTLE
STEERING FLOW, SO THE FEW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL TEND TO MOVE
VERY LITTLE. THAT COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS, BUT SINCE
I DON`T EXPECT DEEP CONVECTION, WE SHOULDN`T HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PROBLEMS. THUS DID NOT INCLUDE "HEAVY RAINFALL" MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH. CURRENT
FORECAST WAS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE, BUT IT`S POSSIBLE I
MAY NEED TO LOWER THE HIGHS A LITTLE BIT. CURRENTLY 67F HERE AT
BTV WITH OUR FORECAST BEING 71F. WE SHALL SEE...

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD SOUTH
FROM CANADA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS
OVER THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS...SO HAVE INCLUDED A
MENTION OF RADIATION FOG DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY ACROSS THE USUAL FOG PRONE SHELTERED VALLEY OF EASTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT ...AS WELL AS THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
FCSTS...WITH LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND A MAINLY DRY FCST THRU TUES. STILL SOME LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
GFS SLOWER WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROF AND STRONGER WITH MID/UPPER
LVL RIDGE ACRS THE NE CONUS...WHILE ECMWF AND GEM ARE FASTER AND
SUPPRESS THE HEAT TO OUR SOUTH SOONER. WL TREND TWD A EURO
SOLUTION FOR THIS PACKAGE...WHICH WL PLACE THE WARMEST TEMPS ACRS
OUR CWA ON WEDS...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVING LATE
WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 13-15C ON TUES AND
BTWN 14-16C ON WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A
FEW READINGS NEAR 90 POSSIBLE IN THE UHI AREAS OF THE CPV/SLV. IN
ADDITION...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WL HELP INCREASE THE HUMIDITY
LEVELS BY MID WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY. HAVE NOTED BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON TUES ACRS THE SLV WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...BUT MID LVL S/W ENERGY IS WEAK AND DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS MINIMAL...THEREFORE WL KEEP DRY. BETTER MOISTURE
AND S/W ENERGY ARRIVES LATE WEDS ACRS OUR NORTHWEST CWA...SO HAVE
INCLUDED CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SHOW CAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG...BUT BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS TOO OUR NORTH...SO NOT
EXPECTING ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD SVR ON WEDS. CHCS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS CONTS ON THURS WITH SFC COLD FRNT LOCATED ACRS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND MID LVL S/W ENERGY AND MOISTURE MOVING ACRS
OUR CWA. WL MENTION HIGH CHC POPS ON THURS...AND DROP TEMPS BACK
INTO THE 70S MTNS TO L/M 80S VALLEYS WITH MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP
ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE...EARLY THIS WEEK WL FEATURE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MVFR TO VFR CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAINSHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL. TREATED SHOWERS WITH VCSH AND WILL UPDATE TAFS AS THEY MOVE
INTO AERODROME. CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY RAISE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THEN EXPECT SOME SOME LOWERING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. DURING OVERNIGHT OURS SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING WILL
MOVE IN FROM NORTHEAST. FIRST IN VT THEN MOVE INTO NY BY DAYBREAK.
TIMING IS KEY HERE...AND DRYING ALOFT WILL ALLOW MORE RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND LIFR FOG FORMATION AT KMPV. ALSO INCREASE FOG PRODUCTION
AT KSLK...DRYING WILL BE CLOSE TO SUNRISE BUT THAT PLACE IS PRONE
TO FOG IN AND BROUGHT LIFR TO KSLK TOWARD MORNING. OTHERWISE TREND ON
SATURDAY IS TOWARD BREAKING OF OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND P6SM.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT
AREAS IFR/LIFR IN FOG SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. RIDGE BUILDS INTO
REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH NO PRECIP AND VERY FEW CLOUDS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...HANSON







  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 221731
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
131 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES LINGERING
OVER THE AREA FOR ONE MORE DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT ALL LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE FROM QUEBEC INTO THE NORTHEAST. IT WILL BRING
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 131 PM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED JUST EAST OF THE
REGION OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR
WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM...ON AND OFF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. THE BIGGEST THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. RAIN RATES ARE MUCH LIGHTER THAN
SHOWERS FROM LAST NIGHT/EARLIER TODAY...WITH MAINLY RATES OF A
QUARTER OF AN INCH PER HOUR OR LESS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE 3KM
HRRR SHOWS SLOW MOVING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTN...WITH A DECREASING TREND TOWARDS EVENING...AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. WILL TREND POPS DOWN
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH JUST SLIGHT TO LOW CHC BY THIS EVENING/

STILL...AREAS THAT OBSERVED FLOODING LAST NIGHT IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY THAT SEE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY WILL WILL HAVE TO
MONITORED CLOSELY...AS ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD POTENTIALLY AFFECT
THE CLEAN UP EFFORTS IN THAT AREA.

WITH CLOUD SKIES ALL DAY...TEMPS WILL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE 65 TO 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END TONIGHT...AND A SLOW CLEARING
TREND WILL START LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN MOSTLY CLOUDY
OR CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 50 TO 60. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE HOLD
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT-TUE NT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL...AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. EXPECT
GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY RISING TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S IN
VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 50S.

WED-THU...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SOMETIME LATE WED...OR MORE LIKELY DURING THU. A WARM
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH
THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS
COULD GET CLOSE TO 90 ON WED. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH
NW PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE WED OR WED NT...WHERE SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC POPS ARE INDICATED. IT APPEARS THAT A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REGIONWIDE SHOULD OCCUR ON THU AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH. MAX TEMPS ON THU SHOULD STILL REACH THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S TO THE N AND W...WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR IF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWER. MIN TEMPS WED AND THU AM SHOULD BE IN THE 60S IN VALLEY
AREAS...AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PREDOMINATELY MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS SCATTERED DRIZZLE/SHOWERS FROM A SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED DRIZZLE/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS RESULTING IN MVFR CEILINGS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AT KALB THROUGH 20Z. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AT KALB AS
WELL FROM 18Z TO 20Z TO ACCOUNT FOR BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO IFR CEILINGS
ASSOCIATED WITH NEARBY SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE EXPECT OCCASIONAL
DRIZZLE/MIST THAT MAY ALLOW FOR BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND LIGHT
AROUND 5 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES ALSO EXPECTED AFTER 06Z.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE NIGHT AS WELL.
IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPSF AFTER 09Z BEFORE DRIER AIR
ALLOWS VFR FLYING CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE TAF SITES BY 15Z
SATURDAY...EXCEPT AT KPSF WHERE MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 18Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5
KNOTS TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 70 PERCENT TODAY
AND RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS...SOME PLACES IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO THE
SARATOGA REGION HAVE RECEIVED UP TO 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN BASED ON
RADAR ESTIMATES. FLASH FLOODING OCCURRED EARLY LAST NIGHT IN
MONTGOMERY AND EXTREME NW SCHOHARIE COUNTY...WITH THE CANAJOHARIE
CREEK RISING TO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAS RECEIVED AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL DURING THE
PAST TWO DAYS...WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY...SHOWERS
WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS
OCCURRING THIS MORNING. FORCING TODAY WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE PAST
TWO DAYS...SO NO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TSTMS EXPECTED
TODAY SINCE TSTMS HAVE NOT BEEN FORECAST. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS SHOWERS
COULD PRODUCE UP TO ANOTHER INCH OF RAIN IN SOME PLACES TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT.

SHOWERS WILL COMPLETELY END BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOIL CONDITIONS
TO DRY OUT ONCE AGAIN...WITH STREAM AND RIVERS RECEDING...ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 221731
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
131 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES LINGERING
OVER THE AREA FOR ONE MORE DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT ALL LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE FROM QUEBEC INTO THE NORTHEAST. IT WILL BRING
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 131 PM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED JUST EAST OF THE
REGION OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR
WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM...ON AND OFF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. THE BIGGEST THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. RAIN RATES ARE MUCH LIGHTER THAN
SHOWERS FROM LAST NIGHT/EARLIER TODAY...WITH MAINLY RATES OF A
QUARTER OF AN INCH PER HOUR OR LESS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE 3KM
HRRR SHOWS SLOW MOVING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTN...WITH A DECREASING TREND TOWARDS EVENING...AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. WILL TREND POPS DOWN
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH JUST SLIGHT TO LOW CHC BY THIS EVENING/

STILL...AREAS THAT OBSERVED FLOODING LAST NIGHT IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY THAT SEE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY WILL WILL HAVE TO
MONITORED CLOSELY...AS ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD POTENTIALLY AFFECT
THE CLEAN UP EFFORTS IN THAT AREA.

WITH CLOUD SKIES ALL DAY...TEMPS WILL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE 65 TO 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END TONIGHT...AND A SLOW CLEARING
TREND WILL START LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN MOSTLY CLOUDY
OR CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 50 TO 60. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE HOLD
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT-TUE NT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL...AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. EXPECT
GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY RISING TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S IN
VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 50S.

WED-THU...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SOMETIME LATE WED...OR MORE LIKELY DURING THU. A WARM
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH
THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS
COULD GET CLOSE TO 90 ON WED. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH
NW PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE WED OR WED NT...WHERE SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC POPS ARE INDICATED. IT APPEARS THAT A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REGIONWIDE SHOULD OCCUR ON THU AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH. MAX TEMPS ON THU SHOULD STILL REACH THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S TO THE N AND W...WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR IF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWER. MIN TEMPS WED AND THU AM SHOULD BE IN THE 60S IN VALLEY
AREAS...AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PREDOMINATELY MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS SCATTERED DRIZZLE/SHOWERS FROM A SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED DRIZZLE/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS RESULTING IN MVFR CEILINGS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AT KALB THROUGH 20Z. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AT KALB AS
WELL FROM 18Z TO 20Z TO ACCOUNT FOR BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO IFR CEILINGS
ASSOCIATED WITH NEARBY SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE EXPECT OCCASIONAL
DRIZZLE/MIST THAT MAY ALLOW FOR BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND LIGHT
AROUND 5 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES ALSO EXPECTED AFTER 06Z.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE NIGHT AS WELL.
IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPSF AFTER 09Z BEFORE DRIER AIR
ALLOWS VFR FLYING CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE TAF SITES BY 15Z
SATURDAY...EXCEPT AT KPSF WHERE MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 18Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5
KNOTS TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 70 PERCENT TODAY
AND RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS...SOME PLACES IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO THE
SARATOGA REGION HAVE RECEIVED UP TO 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN BASED ON
RADAR ESTIMATES. FLASH FLOODING OCCURRED EARLY LAST NIGHT IN
MONTGOMERY AND EXTREME NW SCHOHARIE COUNTY...WITH THE CANAJOHARIE
CREEK RISING TO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAS RECEIVED AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL DURING THE
PAST TWO DAYS...WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY...SHOWERS
WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS
OCCURRING THIS MORNING. FORCING TODAY WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE PAST
TWO DAYS...SO NO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TSTMS EXPECTED
TODAY SINCE TSTMS HAVE NOT BEEN FORECAST. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS SHOWERS
COULD PRODUCE UP TO ANOTHER INCH OF RAIN IN SOME PLACES TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT.

SHOWERS WILL COMPLETELY END BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOIL CONDITIONS
TO DRY OUT ONCE AGAIN...WITH STREAM AND RIVERS RECEDING...ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 221723
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
123 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND AND THEN STICK AROUND. THOUGH THERE MAY BE A SPOT
SHOWER SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WILL FEATURE LOTS OF SUN AND INCREASING WARMTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT FRIDAY...SO FAR THINGS ARE PRIMARILY AS EXPECTED.
CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH AND TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS ARE STRUGGLING
TO RISE. WENT AHEAD AND KNOCKED A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF THE HIGHS,
EXCEPT FOR OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. 1PM TEMPERATURES WERE
ALREADY CLOSE TO PREDICTED HIGHS AND GIVEN SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER, THEY MIGHT GET A LITTLE WARMER. HOWEVER THOSE SAME
BREAKS OF SUN ARE SELF-DESTRUCTIVE AND LEADING TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE OVERALL POP GRIDS TO HIGHLIGHT A
LITTLE MORE WHERE THE SHOWERS WILL BE THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHICH I
EXPECT TO BE THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.

I WENT AHEAD AND ADDED IN SOME PATCHY FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
RIVER VALLEY AREAS IN EASTERN VERMONT. SOME CLEARING LATE TONIGHT
SHOULD LEAD TO QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF FOG.


REMAINDER FROM LATE MORNING DISCUSSION...

LATE MORNING UPDATE TO MAKE MODIFICATIONS BASED ON LATEST
RADAR/SATELLITE/SURFACE OBSERVATION TRENDS.

AREA IS PRETTY MUCH UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW. AS SUCH, WE`VE GOT
ALL THE CLOUDS AND VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT. MOISTURE (CLOUD) DEPTH IS
ABOUT 15,000FT, SO DON`T THINK DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE ABLE TO DO
MUCH WITH REGARD TO MAKING THE CLOUDS "MELT" AWAY. IN FACT, THE
FEW BREAKS WE DO SEE ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND WESTERN
SIDES OF THE HIGH PEAKS IN THE `DACKS ARE DUE TO WEAK DOWNSLOPING
DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.

NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY DUE TO ALL THE CLOUDS, AND NOT EXPECTING
MUCH ADDITIONAL TO DEVELOP. THUS FEEL THE CHANCE FOR ANY T-STORMS
IS QUITE SMALL. HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION. THERE ALSO ISN`T MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FORCING EITHER, SO SHOWERS WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO
FORM ALMOST ANYWHERE, THOUGH DON`T EXPECT COVERAGE TO BECOME TOO
WIDESPREAD. SO 40-50% POPS SEEM REASONABLE.

ALSO WITH THE UPPER LOW ON TOP OF THE AREA, THERE IS VERY LITTLE
STEERING FLOW, SO THE FEW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL TEND TO MOVE
VERY LITTLE. THAT COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS, BUT SINCE
I DON`T EXPECT DEEP CONVECTION, WE SHOULDN`T HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PROBLEMS. THUS DID NOT INCLUDE "HEAVY RAINFALL" MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH. CURRENT
FORECAST WAS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE, BUT IT`S POSSIBLE I
MAY NEED TO LOWER THE HIGHS A LITTLE BIT. CURRENTLY 67F HERE AT
BTV WITH OUR FORECAST BEING 71F. WE SHALL SEE...

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD SOUTH
FROM CANADA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS
OVER THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS...SO HAVE INCLUDED A
MENTION OF RADIATION FOG DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY ACROSS THE USUAL FOG PRONE SHELTERED VALLEY OF EASTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT ...AS WELL AS THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
FCSTS...WITH LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND A MAINLY DRY FCST THRU TUES. STILL SOME LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
GFS SLOWER WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROF AND STRONGER WITH MID/UPPER
LVL RIDGE ACRS THE NE CONUS...WHILE ECMWF AND GEM ARE FASTER AND
SUPPRESS THE HEAT TO OUR SOUTH SOONER. WL TREND TWD A EURO
SOLUTION FOR THIS PACKAGE...WHICH WL PLACE THE WARMEST TEMPS ACRS
OUR CWA ON WEDS...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVING LATE
WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 13-15C ON TUES AND
BTWN 14-16C ON WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A
FEW READINGS NEAR 90 POSSIBLE IN THE UHI AREAS OF THE CPV/SLV. IN
ADDITION...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WL HELP INCREASE THE HUMIDITY
LEVELS BY MID WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY. HAVE NOTED BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON TUES ACRS THE SLV WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...BUT MID LVL S/W ENERGY IS WEAK AND DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS MINIMAL...THEREFORE WL KEEP DRY. BETTER MOISTURE
AND S/W ENERGY ARRIVES LATE WEDS ACRS OUR NORTHWEST CWA...SO HAVE
INCLUDED CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SHOW CAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG...BUT BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS TOO OUR NORTH...SO NOT
EXPECTING ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD SVR ON WEDS. CHCS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS CONTS ON THURS WITH SFC COLD FRNT LOCATED ACRS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND MID LVL S/W ENERGY AND MOISTURE MOVING ACRS
OUR CWA. WL MENTION HIGH CHC POPS ON THURS...AND DROP TEMPS BACK
INTO THE 70S MTNS TO L/M 80S VALLEYS WITH MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP
ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE...EARLY THIS WEEK WL FEATURE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACRS OUR
TAF SITES THIS MORNING FROM IFR AT SLK/MSS TO MVFR AT
MPV/PBG/BTV...AND VFR AT RUT. THINKING IFR CIGS WL PREVAIL AT SLK
THRU 15Z TODAY...BASED ON CRNT OBS AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING PLENTY OF
LLVL MOISTURE. CIGS AT MSS WL JUMP TO MVFR BY 13Z...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BY 15Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WL SLOWLY BECOME VFR BY
18Z WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS...EXCEPT NORTHEAST
AT MSS. TONIGHT...EXPECT MORE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITH
PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE AROUND. THINKING FOG/BR WL DEVELOP BTWN
04-06Z AT MSS/MPV/SLK AND MAYBE EVEN RUT...GIVEN THE RECENT RAINS.
SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR VIS WL BE POSSIBLE AT PBG ALSO. HOWEVER...IF
CLRING IS SLOWER TO DEVELOP AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG/BR WL BE MUCH
LESS. CLRING TRENDS WL NEED TO BE MONTIORED CLOSELY THIS
AFTN/EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES FROM EASTERN
CANADA WL BUILDING INTO OUR TAF SITES FOR SATURDAY THUR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH LOCALIZED FOG/BR LIKELY AT MPV/SLK/MSS SAT/SUN AND
MONDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-12Z...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS. A DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLW WL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER






000
FXUS61 KBTV 221723
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
123 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND AND THEN STICK AROUND. THOUGH THERE MAY BE A SPOT
SHOWER SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WILL FEATURE LOTS OF SUN AND INCREASING WARMTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT FRIDAY...SO FAR THINGS ARE PRIMARILY AS EXPECTED.
CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH AND TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS ARE STRUGGLING
TO RISE. WENT AHEAD AND KNOCKED A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF THE HIGHS,
EXCEPT FOR OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. 1PM TEMPERATURES WERE
ALREADY CLOSE TO PREDICTED HIGHS AND GIVEN SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER, THEY MIGHT GET A LITTLE WARMER. HOWEVER THOSE SAME
BREAKS OF SUN ARE SELF-DESTRUCTIVE AND LEADING TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE OVERALL POP GRIDS TO HIGHLIGHT A
LITTLE MORE WHERE THE SHOWERS WILL BE THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHICH I
EXPECT TO BE THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.

I WENT AHEAD AND ADDED IN SOME PATCHY FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
RIVER VALLEY AREAS IN EASTERN VERMONT. SOME CLEARING LATE TONIGHT
SHOULD LEAD TO QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF FOG.


REMAINDER FROM LATE MORNING DISCUSSION...

LATE MORNING UPDATE TO MAKE MODIFICATIONS BASED ON LATEST
RADAR/SATELLITE/SURFACE OBSERVATION TRENDS.

AREA IS PRETTY MUCH UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW. AS SUCH, WE`VE GOT
ALL THE CLOUDS AND VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT. MOISTURE (CLOUD) DEPTH IS
ABOUT 15,000FT, SO DON`T THINK DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE ABLE TO DO
MUCH WITH REGARD TO MAKING THE CLOUDS "MELT" AWAY. IN FACT, THE
FEW BREAKS WE DO SEE ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND WESTERN
SIDES OF THE HIGH PEAKS IN THE `DACKS ARE DUE TO WEAK DOWNSLOPING
DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.

NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY DUE TO ALL THE CLOUDS, AND NOT EXPECTING
MUCH ADDITIONAL TO DEVELOP. THUS FEEL THE CHANCE FOR ANY T-STORMS
IS QUITE SMALL. HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION. THERE ALSO ISN`T MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FORCING EITHER, SO SHOWERS WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO
FORM ALMOST ANYWHERE, THOUGH DON`T EXPECT COVERAGE TO BECOME TOO
WIDESPREAD. SO 40-50% POPS SEEM REASONABLE.

ALSO WITH THE UPPER LOW ON TOP OF THE AREA, THERE IS VERY LITTLE
STEERING FLOW, SO THE FEW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL TEND TO MOVE
VERY LITTLE. THAT COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS, BUT SINCE
I DON`T EXPECT DEEP CONVECTION, WE SHOULDN`T HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PROBLEMS. THUS DID NOT INCLUDE "HEAVY RAINFALL" MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH. CURRENT
FORECAST WAS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE, BUT IT`S POSSIBLE I
MAY NEED TO LOWER THE HIGHS A LITTLE BIT. CURRENTLY 67F HERE AT
BTV WITH OUR FORECAST BEING 71F. WE SHALL SEE...

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD SOUTH
FROM CANADA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS
OVER THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS...SO HAVE INCLUDED A
MENTION OF RADIATION FOG DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY ACROSS THE USUAL FOG PRONE SHELTERED VALLEY OF EASTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT ...AS WELL AS THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
FCSTS...WITH LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND A MAINLY DRY FCST THRU TUES. STILL SOME LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
GFS SLOWER WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROF AND STRONGER WITH MID/UPPER
LVL RIDGE ACRS THE NE CONUS...WHILE ECMWF AND GEM ARE FASTER AND
SUPPRESS THE HEAT TO OUR SOUTH SOONER. WL TREND TWD A EURO
SOLUTION FOR THIS PACKAGE...WHICH WL PLACE THE WARMEST TEMPS ACRS
OUR CWA ON WEDS...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVING LATE
WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 13-15C ON TUES AND
BTWN 14-16C ON WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A
FEW READINGS NEAR 90 POSSIBLE IN THE UHI AREAS OF THE CPV/SLV. IN
ADDITION...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WL HELP INCREASE THE HUMIDITY
LEVELS BY MID WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY. HAVE NOTED BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON TUES ACRS THE SLV WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...BUT MID LVL S/W ENERGY IS WEAK AND DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS MINIMAL...THEREFORE WL KEEP DRY. BETTER MOISTURE
AND S/W ENERGY ARRIVES LATE WEDS ACRS OUR NORTHWEST CWA...SO HAVE
INCLUDED CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SHOW CAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG...BUT BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS TOO OUR NORTH...SO NOT
EXPECTING ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD SVR ON WEDS. CHCS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS CONTS ON THURS WITH SFC COLD FRNT LOCATED ACRS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND MID LVL S/W ENERGY AND MOISTURE MOVING ACRS
OUR CWA. WL MENTION HIGH CHC POPS ON THURS...AND DROP TEMPS BACK
INTO THE 70S MTNS TO L/M 80S VALLEYS WITH MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP
ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE...EARLY THIS WEEK WL FEATURE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACRS OUR
TAF SITES THIS MORNING FROM IFR AT SLK/MSS TO MVFR AT
MPV/PBG/BTV...AND VFR AT RUT. THINKING IFR CIGS WL PREVAIL AT SLK
THRU 15Z TODAY...BASED ON CRNT OBS AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING PLENTY OF
LLVL MOISTURE. CIGS AT MSS WL JUMP TO MVFR BY 13Z...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BY 15Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WL SLOWLY BECOME VFR BY
18Z WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS...EXCEPT NORTHEAST
AT MSS. TONIGHT...EXPECT MORE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITH
PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE AROUND. THINKING FOG/BR WL DEVELOP BTWN
04-06Z AT MSS/MPV/SLK AND MAYBE EVEN RUT...GIVEN THE RECENT RAINS.
SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR VIS WL BE POSSIBLE AT PBG ALSO. HOWEVER...IF
CLRING IS SLOWER TO DEVELOP AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG/BR WL BE MUCH
LESS. CLRING TRENDS WL NEED TO BE MONTIORED CLOSELY THIS
AFTN/EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES FROM EASTERN
CANADA WL BUILDING INTO OUR TAF SITES FOR SATURDAY THUR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH LOCALIZED FOG/BR LIKELY AT MPV/SLK/MSS SAT/SUN AND
MONDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-12Z...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS. A DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLW WL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER






000
FXUS61 KBTV 221723
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
123 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND AND THEN STICK AROUND. THOUGH THERE MAY BE A SPOT
SHOWER SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WILL FEATURE LOTS OF SUN AND INCREASING WARMTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT FRIDAY...SO FAR THINGS ARE PRIMARILY AS EXPECTED.
CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH AND TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS ARE STRUGGLING
TO RISE. WENT AHEAD AND KNOCKED A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF THE HIGHS,
EXCEPT FOR OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. 1PM TEMPERATURES WERE
ALREADY CLOSE TO PREDICTED HIGHS AND GIVEN SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER, THEY MIGHT GET A LITTLE WARMER. HOWEVER THOSE SAME
BREAKS OF SUN ARE SELF-DESTRUCTIVE AND LEADING TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE OVERALL POP GRIDS TO HIGHLIGHT A
LITTLE MORE WHERE THE SHOWERS WILL BE THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHICH I
EXPECT TO BE THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.

I WENT AHEAD AND ADDED IN SOME PATCHY FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
RIVER VALLEY AREAS IN EASTERN VERMONT. SOME CLEARING LATE TONIGHT
SHOULD LEAD TO QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF FOG.


REMAINDER FROM LATE MORNING DISCUSSION...

LATE MORNING UPDATE TO MAKE MODIFICATIONS BASED ON LATEST
RADAR/SATELLITE/SURFACE OBSERVATION TRENDS.

AREA IS PRETTY MUCH UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW. AS SUCH, WE`VE GOT
ALL THE CLOUDS AND VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT. MOISTURE (CLOUD) DEPTH IS
ABOUT 15,000FT, SO DON`T THINK DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE ABLE TO DO
MUCH WITH REGARD TO MAKING THE CLOUDS "MELT" AWAY. IN FACT, THE
FEW BREAKS WE DO SEE ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND WESTERN
SIDES OF THE HIGH PEAKS IN THE `DACKS ARE DUE TO WEAK DOWNSLOPING
DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.

NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY DUE TO ALL THE CLOUDS, AND NOT EXPECTING
MUCH ADDITIONAL TO DEVELOP. THUS FEEL THE CHANCE FOR ANY T-STORMS
IS QUITE SMALL. HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION. THERE ALSO ISN`T MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FORCING EITHER, SO SHOWERS WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO
FORM ALMOST ANYWHERE, THOUGH DON`T EXPECT COVERAGE TO BECOME TOO
WIDESPREAD. SO 40-50% POPS SEEM REASONABLE.

ALSO WITH THE UPPER LOW ON TOP OF THE AREA, THERE IS VERY LITTLE
STEERING FLOW, SO THE FEW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL TEND TO MOVE
VERY LITTLE. THAT COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS, BUT SINCE
I DON`T EXPECT DEEP CONVECTION, WE SHOULDN`T HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PROBLEMS. THUS DID NOT INCLUDE "HEAVY RAINFALL" MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH. CURRENT
FORECAST WAS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE, BUT IT`S POSSIBLE I
MAY NEED TO LOWER THE HIGHS A LITTLE BIT. CURRENTLY 67F HERE AT
BTV WITH OUR FORECAST BEING 71F. WE SHALL SEE...

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD SOUTH
FROM CANADA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS
OVER THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS...SO HAVE INCLUDED A
MENTION OF RADIATION FOG DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY ACROSS THE USUAL FOG PRONE SHELTERED VALLEY OF EASTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT ...AS WELL AS THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
FCSTS...WITH LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND A MAINLY DRY FCST THRU TUES. STILL SOME LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
GFS SLOWER WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROF AND STRONGER WITH MID/UPPER
LVL RIDGE ACRS THE NE CONUS...WHILE ECMWF AND GEM ARE FASTER AND
SUPPRESS THE HEAT TO OUR SOUTH SOONER. WL TREND TWD A EURO
SOLUTION FOR THIS PACKAGE...WHICH WL PLACE THE WARMEST TEMPS ACRS
OUR CWA ON WEDS...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVING LATE
WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 13-15C ON TUES AND
BTWN 14-16C ON WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A
FEW READINGS NEAR 90 POSSIBLE IN THE UHI AREAS OF THE CPV/SLV. IN
ADDITION...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WL HELP INCREASE THE HUMIDITY
LEVELS BY MID WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY. HAVE NOTED BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON TUES ACRS THE SLV WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...BUT MID LVL S/W ENERGY IS WEAK AND DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS MINIMAL...THEREFORE WL KEEP DRY. BETTER MOISTURE
AND S/W ENERGY ARRIVES LATE WEDS ACRS OUR NORTHWEST CWA...SO HAVE
INCLUDED CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SHOW CAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG...BUT BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS TOO OUR NORTH...SO NOT
EXPECTING ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD SVR ON WEDS. CHCS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS CONTS ON THURS WITH SFC COLD FRNT LOCATED ACRS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND MID LVL S/W ENERGY AND MOISTURE MOVING ACRS
OUR CWA. WL MENTION HIGH CHC POPS ON THURS...AND DROP TEMPS BACK
INTO THE 70S MTNS TO L/M 80S VALLEYS WITH MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP
ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE...EARLY THIS WEEK WL FEATURE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACRS OUR
TAF SITES THIS MORNING FROM IFR AT SLK/MSS TO MVFR AT
MPV/PBG/BTV...AND VFR AT RUT. THINKING IFR CIGS WL PREVAIL AT SLK
THRU 15Z TODAY...BASED ON CRNT OBS AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING PLENTY OF
LLVL MOISTURE. CIGS AT MSS WL JUMP TO MVFR BY 13Z...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BY 15Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WL SLOWLY BECOME VFR BY
18Z WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS...EXCEPT NORTHEAST
AT MSS. TONIGHT...EXPECT MORE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITH
PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE AROUND. THINKING FOG/BR WL DEVELOP BTWN
04-06Z AT MSS/MPV/SLK AND MAYBE EVEN RUT...GIVEN THE RECENT RAINS.
SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR VIS WL BE POSSIBLE AT PBG ALSO. HOWEVER...IF
CLRING IS SLOWER TO DEVELOP AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG/BR WL BE MUCH
LESS. CLRING TRENDS WL NEED TO BE MONTIORED CLOSELY THIS
AFTN/EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES FROM EASTERN
CANADA WL BUILDING INTO OUR TAF SITES FOR SATURDAY THUR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH LOCALIZED FOG/BR LIKELY AT MPV/SLK/MSS SAT/SUN AND
MONDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-12Z...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS. A DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLW WL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER






000
FXUS61 KBTV 221723
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
123 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND AND THEN STICK AROUND. THOUGH THERE MAY BE A SPOT
SHOWER SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WILL FEATURE LOTS OF SUN AND INCREASING WARMTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT FRIDAY...SO FAR THINGS ARE PRIMARILY AS EXPECTED.
CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH AND TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS ARE STRUGGLING
TO RISE. WENT AHEAD AND KNOCKED A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF THE HIGHS,
EXCEPT FOR OUT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. 1PM TEMPERATURES WERE
ALREADY CLOSE TO PREDICTED HIGHS AND GIVEN SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER, THEY MIGHT GET A LITTLE WARMER. HOWEVER THOSE SAME
BREAKS OF SUN ARE SELF-DESTRUCTIVE AND LEADING TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE OVERALL POP GRIDS TO HIGHLIGHT A
LITTLE MORE WHERE THE SHOWERS WILL BE THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHICH I
EXPECT TO BE THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.

I WENT AHEAD AND ADDED IN SOME PATCHY FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
RIVER VALLEY AREAS IN EASTERN VERMONT. SOME CLEARING LATE TONIGHT
SHOULD LEAD TO QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF FOG.


REMAINDER FROM LATE MORNING DISCUSSION...

LATE MORNING UPDATE TO MAKE MODIFICATIONS BASED ON LATEST
RADAR/SATELLITE/SURFACE OBSERVATION TRENDS.

AREA IS PRETTY MUCH UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW. AS SUCH, WE`VE GOT
ALL THE CLOUDS AND VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT. MOISTURE (CLOUD) DEPTH IS
ABOUT 15,000FT, SO DON`T THINK DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE ABLE TO DO
MUCH WITH REGARD TO MAKING THE CLOUDS "MELT" AWAY. IN FACT, THE
FEW BREAKS WE DO SEE ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND WESTERN
SIDES OF THE HIGH PEAKS IN THE `DACKS ARE DUE TO WEAK DOWNSLOPING
DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.

NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY DUE TO ALL THE CLOUDS, AND NOT EXPECTING
MUCH ADDITIONAL TO DEVELOP. THUS FEEL THE CHANCE FOR ANY T-STORMS
IS QUITE SMALL. HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION. THERE ALSO ISN`T MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FORCING EITHER, SO SHOWERS WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO
FORM ALMOST ANYWHERE, THOUGH DON`T EXPECT COVERAGE TO BECOME TOO
WIDESPREAD. SO 40-50% POPS SEEM REASONABLE.

ALSO WITH THE UPPER LOW ON TOP OF THE AREA, THERE IS VERY LITTLE
STEERING FLOW, SO THE FEW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL TEND TO MOVE
VERY LITTLE. THAT COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS, BUT SINCE
I DON`T EXPECT DEEP CONVECTION, WE SHOULDN`T HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PROBLEMS. THUS DID NOT INCLUDE "HEAVY RAINFALL" MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH. CURRENT
FORECAST WAS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE, BUT IT`S POSSIBLE I
MAY NEED TO LOWER THE HIGHS A LITTLE BIT. CURRENTLY 67F HERE AT
BTV WITH OUR FORECAST BEING 71F. WE SHALL SEE...

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD SOUTH
FROM CANADA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS
OVER THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS...SO HAVE INCLUDED A
MENTION OF RADIATION FOG DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY ACROSS THE USUAL FOG PRONE SHELTERED VALLEY OF EASTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT ...AS WELL AS THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
FCSTS...WITH LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND A MAINLY DRY FCST THRU TUES. STILL SOME LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
GFS SLOWER WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROF AND STRONGER WITH MID/UPPER
LVL RIDGE ACRS THE NE CONUS...WHILE ECMWF AND GEM ARE FASTER AND
SUPPRESS THE HEAT TO OUR SOUTH SOONER. WL TREND TWD A EURO
SOLUTION FOR THIS PACKAGE...WHICH WL PLACE THE WARMEST TEMPS ACRS
OUR CWA ON WEDS...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVING LATE
WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 13-15C ON TUES AND
BTWN 14-16C ON WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A
FEW READINGS NEAR 90 POSSIBLE IN THE UHI AREAS OF THE CPV/SLV. IN
ADDITION...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WL HELP INCREASE THE HUMIDITY
LEVELS BY MID WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY. HAVE NOTED BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON TUES ACRS THE SLV WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...BUT MID LVL S/W ENERGY IS WEAK AND DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS MINIMAL...THEREFORE WL KEEP DRY. BETTER MOISTURE
AND S/W ENERGY ARRIVES LATE WEDS ACRS OUR NORTHWEST CWA...SO HAVE
INCLUDED CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SHOW CAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG...BUT BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS TOO OUR NORTH...SO NOT
EXPECTING ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD SVR ON WEDS. CHCS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS CONTS ON THURS WITH SFC COLD FRNT LOCATED ACRS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND MID LVL S/W ENERGY AND MOISTURE MOVING ACRS
OUR CWA. WL MENTION HIGH CHC POPS ON THURS...AND DROP TEMPS BACK
INTO THE 70S MTNS TO L/M 80S VALLEYS WITH MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP
ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE...EARLY THIS WEEK WL FEATURE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACRS OUR
TAF SITES THIS MORNING FROM IFR AT SLK/MSS TO MVFR AT
MPV/PBG/BTV...AND VFR AT RUT. THINKING IFR CIGS WL PREVAIL AT SLK
THRU 15Z TODAY...BASED ON CRNT OBS AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING PLENTY OF
LLVL MOISTURE. CIGS AT MSS WL JUMP TO MVFR BY 13Z...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BY 15Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WL SLOWLY BECOME VFR BY
18Z WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS...EXCEPT NORTHEAST
AT MSS. TONIGHT...EXPECT MORE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITH
PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE AROUND. THINKING FOG/BR WL DEVELOP BTWN
04-06Z AT MSS/MPV/SLK AND MAYBE EVEN RUT...GIVEN THE RECENT RAINS.
SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR VIS WL BE POSSIBLE AT PBG ALSO. HOWEVER...IF
CLRING IS SLOWER TO DEVELOP AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG/BR WL BE MUCH
LESS. CLRING TRENDS WL NEED TO BE MONTIORED CLOSELY THIS
AFTN/EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES FROM EASTERN
CANADA WL BUILDING INTO OUR TAF SITES FOR SATURDAY THUR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH LOCALIZED FOG/BR LIKELY AT MPV/SLK/MSS SAT/SUN AND
MONDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-12Z...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS. A DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLW WL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER






000
FXUS61 KBTV 221452
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1052 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD SOUTH
FROM CANADA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1038 AM EDT FRIDAY...LATE MORNING UPDATE TO MAKE
MODIFICATIONS BASED ON LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE/SURFACE OBSERVATION TRENDS.

AREA IS PRETTY MUCH UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW. AS SUCH, WE`VE GOT
ALL THE CLOUDS AND VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT. MOISTURE (CLOUD) DEPTH IS
ABOUT 15,000FT, SO DON`T THINK DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE ABLE TO DO
MUCH WITH REGARD TO MAKING THE CLOUDS "MELT" AWAY. IN FACT, THE
FEW BREAKS WE DO SEE ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND WESTERN
SIDES OF THE HIGH PEAKS IN THE `DACKS ARE DUE TO WEAK DOWNSLOPING
DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.

NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY DUE TO ALL THE CLOUDS, AND NOT EXPECTING
MUCH ADDITIONAL TO DEVELOP. THUS FEEL THE CHANCE FOR ANY T-STORMS
IS QUITE SMALL. HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION. THERE ALSO ISN`T MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FORCING EITHER, SO SHOWERS WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO
FORM ALMOST ANYWHERE, THOUGH DON`T EXPECT COVERAGE TO BECOME TOO
WIDESPREAD. SO 40-50% POPS SEEM REASONABLE.

ALSO WITH THE UPPER LOW ON TOP OF THE AREA, THERE IS VERY LITTLE
STEERING FLOW, SO THE FEW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL TEND TO MOVE
VERY LITTLE. THAT COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS, BUT SINCE
I DON`T EXPECT DEEP CONVECTION, WE SHOULDN`T HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PROBLEMS. THUS DID NOT INCLUDE "HEAVY RAINFALL" MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH. CURRENT
FORECAST WAS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE, BUT IT`S POSSIBLE I
MAY NEED TO LOWER THE HIGHS A LITTLE BIT. CURRENTLY 67F HERE AT
BTV WITH OUR FORECAST BEING 71F. WE SHALL SEE...

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD SOUTH
FROM CANADA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS
OVER THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS...SO HAVE INCLUDED A
MENTION OF RADIATION FOG DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY ACROSS THE USUAL FOG PRONE SHELTERED VALLEY OF EASTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT ...AS WELL AS THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
FCSTS...WITH LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND A MAINLY DRY FCST THRU TUES. STILL SOME LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
GFS SLOWER WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROF AND STRONGER WITH MID/UPPER
LVL RIDGE ACRS THE NE CONUS...WHILE ECMWF AND GEM ARE FASTER AND
SUPPRESS THE HEAT TO OUR SOUTH SOONER. WL TREND TWD A EURO
SOLUTION FOR THIS PACKAGE...WHICH WL PLACE THE WARMEST TEMPS ACRS
OUR CWA ON WEDS...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVING LATE
WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 13-15C ON TUES AND
BTWN 14-16C ON WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A
FEW READINGS NEAR 90 POSSIBLE IN THE UHI AREAS OF THE CPV/SLV. IN
ADDITION...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WL HELP INCREASE THE HUMIDITY
LEVELS BY MID WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY. HAVE NOTED BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON TUES ACRS THE SLV WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...BUT MID LVL S/W ENERGY IS WEAK AND DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS MINIMAL...THEREFORE WL KEEP DRY. BETTER MOISTURE
AND S/W ENERGY ARRIVES LATE WEDS ACRS OUR NORTHWEST CWA...SO HAVE
INCLUDED CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SHOW CAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG...BUT BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS TOO OUR NORTH...SO NOT
EXPECTING ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD SVR ON WEDS. CHCS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS CONTS ON THURS WITH SFC COLD FRNT LOCATED ACRS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND MID LVL S/W ENERGY AND MOISTURE MOVING ACRS
OUR CWA. WL MENTION HIGH CHC POPS ON THURS...AND DROP TEMPS BACK
INTO THE 70S MTNS TO L/M 80S VALLEYS WITH MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP
ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE...EARLY THIS WEEK WL FEATURE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACRS OUR
TAF SITES THIS MORNING FROM IFR AT SLK/MSS TO MVFR AT
MPV/PBG/BTV...AND VFR AT RUT. THINKING IFR CIGS WL PREVAIL AT SLK
THRU 15Z TODAY...BASED ON CRNT OBS AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING PLENTY OF
LLVL MOISTURE. CIGS AT MSS WL JUMP TO MVFR BY 13Z...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BY 15Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WL SLOWLY BECOME VFR BY
18Z WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS...EXCEPT NORTHEAST
AT MSS. TONIGHT...EXPECT MORE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITH
PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE AROUND. THINKING FOG/BR WL DEVELOP BTWN
04-06Z AT MSS/MPV/SLK AND MAYBE EVEN RUT...GIVEN THE RECENT RAINS.
SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR VIS WL BE POSSIBLE AT PBG ALSO. HOWEVER...IF
CLRING IS SLOWER TO DEVELOP AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG/BR WL BE MUCH
LESS. CLRING TRENDS WL NEED TO BE MONTIORED CLOSELY THIS
AFTN/EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES FROM EASTERN
CANADA WL BUILDING INTO OUR TAF SITES FOR SATURDAY THUR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH LOCALIZED FOG/BR LIKELY AT MPV/SLK/MSS SAT/SUN AND
MONDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-12Z...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS. A DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLW WL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER







000
FXUS61 KBTV 221452
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1052 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD SOUTH
FROM CANADA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1038 AM EDT FRIDAY...LATE MORNING UPDATE TO MAKE
MODIFICATIONS BASED ON LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE/SURFACE OBSERVATION TRENDS.

AREA IS PRETTY MUCH UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW. AS SUCH, WE`VE GOT
ALL THE CLOUDS AND VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT. MOISTURE (CLOUD) DEPTH IS
ABOUT 15,000FT, SO DON`T THINK DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE ABLE TO DO
MUCH WITH REGARD TO MAKING THE CLOUDS "MELT" AWAY. IN FACT, THE
FEW BREAKS WE DO SEE ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND WESTERN
SIDES OF THE HIGH PEAKS IN THE `DACKS ARE DUE TO WEAK DOWNSLOPING
DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.

NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY DUE TO ALL THE CLOUDS, AND NOT EXPECTING
MUCH ADDITIONAL TO DEVELOP. THUS FEEL THE CHANCE FOR ANY T-STORMS
IS QUITE SMALL. HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION. THERE ALSO ISN`T MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FORCING EITHER, SO SHOWERS WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO
FORM ALMOST ANYWHERE, THOUGH DON`T EXPECT COVERAGE TO BECOME TOO
WIDESPREAD. SO 40-50% POPS SEEM REASONABLE.

ALSO WITH THE UPPER LOW ON TOP OF THE AREA, THERE IS VERY LITTLE
STEERING FLOW, SO THE FEW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL TEND TO MOVE
VERY LITTLE. THAT COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS, BUT SINCE
I DON`T EXPECT DEEP CONVECTION, WE SHOULDN`T HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PROBLEMS. THUS DID NOT INCLUDE "HEAVY RAINFALL" MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH. CURRENT
FORECAST WAS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE, BUT IT`S POSSIBLE I
MAY NEED TO LOWER THE HIGHS A LITTLE BIT. CURRENTLY 67F HERE AT
BTV WITH OUR FORECAST BEING 71F. WE SHALL SEE...

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD SOUTH
FROM CANADA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS
OVER THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS...SO HAVE INCLUDED A
MENTION OF RADIATION FOG DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY ACROSS THE USUAL FOG PRONE SHELTERED VALLEY OF EASTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT ...AS WELL AS THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
FCSTS...WITH LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND A MAINLY DRY FCST THRU TUES. STILL SOME LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
GFS SLOWER WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROF AND STRONGER WITH MID/UPPER
LVL RIDGE ACRS THE NE CONUS...WHILE ECMWF AND GEM ARE FASTER AND
SUPPRESS THE HEAT TO OUR SOUTH SOONER. WL TREND TWD A EURO
SOLUTION FOR THIS PACKAGE...WHICH WL PLACE THE WARMEST TEMPS ACRS
OUR CWA ON WEDS...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVING LATE
WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 13-15C ON TUES AND
BTWN 14-16C ON WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A
FEW READINGS NEAR 90 POSSIBLE IN THE UHI AREAS OF THE CPV/SLV. IN
ADDITION...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WL HELP INCREASE THE HUMIDITY
LEVELS BY MID WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY. HAVE NOTED BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON TUES ACRS THE SLV WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...BUT MID LVL S/W ENERGY IS WEAK AND DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS MINIMAL...THEREFORE WL KEEP DRY. BETTER MOISTURE
AND S/W ENERGY ARRIVES LATE WEDS ACRS OUR NORTHWEST CWA...SO HAVE
INCLUDED CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SHOW CAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG...BUT BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS TOO OUR NORTH...SO NOT
EXPECTING ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD SVR ON WEDS. CHCS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS CONTS ON THURS WITH SFC COLD FRNT LOCATED ACRS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND MID LVL S/W ENERGY AND MOISTURE MOVING ACRS
OUR CWA. WL MENTION HIGH CHC POPS ON THURS...AND DROP TEMPS BACK
INTO THE 70S MTNS TO L/M 80S VALLEYS WITH MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP
ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE...EARLY THIS WEEK WL FEATURE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACRS OUR
TAF SITES THIS MORNING FROM IFR AT SLK/MSS TO MVFR AT
MPV/PBG/BTV...AND VFR AT RUT. THINKING IFR CIGS WL PREVAIL AT SLK
THRU 15Z TODAY...BASED ON CRNT OBS AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING PLENTY OF
LLVL MOISTURE. CIGS AT MSS WL JUMP TO MVFR BY 13Z...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BY 15Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WL SLOWLY BECOME VFR BY
18Z WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS...EXCEPT NORTHEAST
AT MSS. TONIGHT...EXPECT MORE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITH
PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE AROUND. THINKING FOG/BR WL DEVELOP BTWN
04-06Z AT MSS/MPV/SLK AND MAYBE EVEN RUT...GIVEN THE RECENT RAINS.
SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR VIS WL BE POSSIBLE AT PBG ALSO. HOWEVER...IF
CLRING IS SLOWER TO DEVELOP AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG/BR WL BE MUCH
LESS. CLRING TRENDS WL NEED TO BE MONTIORED CLOSELY THIS
AFTN/EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES FROM EASTERN
CANADA WL BUILDING INTO OUR TAF SITES FOR SATURDAY THUR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH LOCALIZED FOG/BR LIKELY AT MPV/SLK/MSS SAT/SUN AND
MONDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-12Z...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS. A DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLW WL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER






000
FXUS61 KALY 221408
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1008 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES LINGERING
OVER THE AREA FOR ONE MORE DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT ALL LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE FROM QUEBEC INTO THE NORTHEAST. IT WILL BRING
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY
THIS MORNING SHOULD INCREASE JUST A LITTLE IN COVERAGE...SO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON...SO FEW CHANGES IF ANY TO TEMPERATURES OR SKY COVER.
AREAS THAT OBSERVED FLOODING LAST NIGHT GETTING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR ANYTHING GREATER THAN
CURRENT URBAN AND SMALL STREAM TYPE FLOODING THAT COULD AFFECT THE
CLEAN UP OUT THERE.

DURING THE DAY THE POPS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY DECREASE. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE 65 TO 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END TONIGHT...AND A SLOW CLEARING
TREND WILL START LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN MOSTLY CLOUDY
OR CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 50 TO 60. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE HOLD
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT-TUE NT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL...AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. EXPECT
GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY RISING TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S IN
VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 50S.

WED-THU...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SOMETIME LATE WED...OR MORE LIKELY DURING THU. A WARM
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH
THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS
COULD GET CLOSE TO 90 ON WED. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH
NW PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE WED OR WED NT...WHERE SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC POPS ARE INDICATED. IT APPEARS THAT A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REGIONWIDE SHOULD OCCUR ON THU AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH. MAX TEMPS ON THU SHOULD STILL REACH THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S TO THE N AND W...WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR IF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWER. MIN TEMPS WED AND THU AM SHOULD BE IN THE 60S IN VALLEY
AREAS...AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A FEW PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN ANY SHOWERS OR AREAS OF
DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE TRENDING BACK DOWN TO MVFR AFTER 02Z/SAT. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/SAT...ESP AT
KPSF...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS NOT VERY HIGH SO DID NOT
EXPLICITLY INCLUDE IN TAFS.

WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE E TO NE...AT LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH
FRI NT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 70 PERCENT TODAY
AND RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS...SOME PLACES IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO THE
SARATOGA REGION HAVE RECEIVED UP TO 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN BASED ON
RADAR ESTIMATES. FLASH FLOODING OCCURRED EARLY LAST NIGHT IN
MONTGOMERY AND EXTREME NW SCHOHARIE COUNTY...WITH THE CANAJOHARIE
CREEK RISING TO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAS RECEIVED AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL DURING THE
PAST TWO DAYS...WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY...SHOWERS
WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS
OCCURRING THIS MORNING. FORCING TODAY WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE PAST
TWO DAYS...SO NO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TSTMS EXPECTED
TODAY SINCE TSTMS HAVE NOT BEEN FORECAST. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS SHOWERS
COULD PRODUCE UP TO ANOTHER INCH OF RAIN IN SOME PLACES TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT.

SHOWERS WILL COMPLETELY END BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOIL CONDITIONS
TO DRY OUT ONCE AGAIN...WITH STREAM AND RIVERS RECEDING...ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 221408
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1008 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES LINGERING
OVER THE AREA FOR ONE MORE DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT ALL LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE FROM QUEBEC INTO THE NORTHEAST. IT WILL BRING
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY
THIS MORNING SHOULD INCREASE JUST A LITTLE IN COVERAGE...SO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON...SO FEW CHANGES IF ANY TO TEMPERATURES OR SKY COVER.
AREAS THAT OBSERVED FLOODING LAST NIGHT GETTING SHOWERS THIS
MORNING AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR ANYTHING GREATER THAN
CURRENT URBAN AND SMALL STREAM TYPE FLOODING THAT COULD AFFECT THE
CLEAN UP OUT THERE.

DURING THE DAY THE POPS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY DECREASE. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE 65 TO 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END TONIGHT...AND A SLOW CLEARING
TREND WILL START LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN MOSTLY CLOUDY
OR CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 50 TO 60. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE HOLD
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT-TUE NT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL...AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. EXPECT
GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY RISING TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S IN
VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 50S.

WED-THU...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SOMETIME LATE WED...OR MORE LIKELY DURING THU. A WARM
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH
THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS
COULD GET CLOSE TO 90 ON WED. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH
NW PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE WED OR WED NT...WHERE SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC POPS ARE INDICATED. IT APPEARS THAT A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REGIONWIDE SHOULD OCCUR ON THU AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH. MAX TEMPS ON THU SHOULD STILL REACH THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S TO THE N AND W...WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR IF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWER. MIN TEMPS WED AND THU AM SHOULD BE IN THE 60S IN VALLEY
AREAS...AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A FEW PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN ANY SHOWERS OR AREAS OF
DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE TRENDING BACK DOWN TO MVFR AFTER 02Z/SAT. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/SAT...ESP AT
KPSF...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS NOT VERY HIGH SO DID NOT
EXPLICITLY INCLUDE IN TAFS.

WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE E TO NE...AT LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH
FRI NT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 70 PERCENT TODAY
AND RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS...SOME PLACES IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO THE
SARATOGA REGION HAVE RECEIVED UP TO 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN BASED ON
RADAR ESTIMATES. FLASH FLOODING OCCURRED EARLY LAST NIGHT IN
MONTGOMERY AND EXTREME NW SCHOHARIE COUNTY...WITH THE CANAJOHARIE
CREEK RISING TO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAS RECEIVED AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL DURING THE
PAST TWO DAYS...WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY...SHOWERS
WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS
OCCURRING THIS MORNING. FORCING TODAY WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE PAST
TWO DAYS...SO NO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TSTMS EXPECTED
TODAY SINCE TSTMS HAVE NOT BEEN FORECAST. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS SHOWERS
COULD PRODUCE UP TO ANOTHER INCH OF RAIN IN SOME PLACES TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT.

SHOWERS WILL COMPLETELY END BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOIL CONDITIONS
TO DRY OUT ONCE AGAIN...WITH STREAM AND RIVERS RECEDING...ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 221143
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
743 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD SOUTH
FROM CANADA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 742 AM EDT FRIDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT AT THIS TIME...WITH
JUST WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY STILL LOOKS
GOOD...SO NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 416 AM EDT FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION
TODAY. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS AT THIS TIME ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD
LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT FOR TODAY.
GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED SHOWERS HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING A SLIGHT BIT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THERE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD SOUTH
FROM CANADA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS
OVER THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS...SO HAVE INCLUDED A
MENTION OF RADIATION FOG DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY ACROSS THE USUAL FOG PRONE SHELTERED VALLEY OF EASTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT ...AS WELL AS THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
FCSTS...WITH LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND A MAINLY DRY FCST THRU TUES. STILL SOME LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
GFS SLOWER WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROF AND STRONGER WITH MID/UPPER
LVL RIDGE ACRS THE NE CONUS...WHILE ECMWF AND GEM ARE FASTER AND
SUPPRESS THE HEAT TO OUR SOUTH SOONER. WL TREND TWD A EURO
SOLUTION FOR THIS PACKAGE...WHICH WL PLACE THE WARMEST TEMPS ACRS
OUR CWA ON WEDS...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVING LATE
WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 13-15C ON TUES AND
BTWN 14-16C ON WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A
FEW READINGS NEAR 90 POSSIBLE IN THE UHI AREAS OF THE CPV/SLV. IN
ADDITION...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WL HELP INCREASE THE HUMIDITY
LEVELS BY MID WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY. HAVE NOTED BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON TUES ACRS THE SLV WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...BUT MID LVL S/W ENERGY IS WEAK AND DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS MINIMAL...THEREFORE WL KEEP DRY. BETTER MOISTURE
AND S/W ENERGY ARRIVES LATE WEDS ACRS OUR NORTHWEST CWA...SO HAVE
INCLUDED CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SHOW CAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG...BUT BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS TOO OUR NORTH...SO NOT
EXPECTING ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD SVR ON WEDS. CHCS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS CONTS ON THURS WITH SFC COLD FRNT LOCATED ACRS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND MID LVL S/W ENERGY AND MOISTURE MOVING ACRS
OUR CWA. WL MENTION HIGH CHC POPS ON THURS...AND DROP TEMPS BACK
INTO THE 70S MTNS TO L/M 80S VALLEYS WITH MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP
ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE...EARLY THIS WEEK WL FEATURE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACRS OUR
TAF SITES THIS MORNING FROM IFR AT SLK/MSS TO MVFR AT
MPV/PBG/BTV...AND VFR AT RUT. THINKING IFR CIGS WL PREVAIL AT SLK
THRU 15Z TODAY...BASED ON CRNT OBS AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING PLENTY OF
LLVL MOISTURE. CIGS AT MSS WL JUMP TO MVFR BY 13Z...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BY 15Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WL SLOWLY BECOME VFR BY
18Z WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS...EXCEPT NORTHEAST
AT MSS. TONIGHT...EXPECT MORE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITH
PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE AROUND. THINKING FOG/BR WL DEVELOP BTWN
04-06Z AT MSS/MPV/SLK AND MAYBE EVEN RUT...GIVEN THE RECENT RAINS.
SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR VIS WL BE POSSIBLE AT PBG ALSO. HOWEVER...IF
CLRING IS SLOWER TO DEVELOP AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG/BR WL BE MUCH
LESS. CLRING TRENDS WL NEED TO BE MONTIORED CLOSELY THIS
AFTN/EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES FROM EASTERN
CANADA WL BUILDING INTO OUR TAF SITES FOR SATURDAY THUR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH LOCALIZED FOG/BR LIKELY AT MPV/SLK/MSS SAT/SUN AND
MONDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-12Z...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS. A DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLW WL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 221143
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
743 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD SOUTH
FROM CANADA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 742 AM EDT FRIDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT AT THIS TIME...WITH
JUST WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY STILL LOOKS
GOOD...SO NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 416 AM EDT FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION
TODAY. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS AT THIS TIME ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD
LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT FOR TODAY.
GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED SHOWERS HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING A SLIGHT BIT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THERE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD SOUTH
FROM CANADA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS
OVER THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS...SO HAVE INCLUDED A
MENTION OF RADIATION FOG DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY ACROSS THE USUAL FOG PRONE SHELTERED VALLEY OF EASTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT ...AS WELL AS THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
FCSTS...WITH LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND A MAINLY DRY FCST THRU TUES. STILL SOME LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
GFS SLOWER WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROF AND STRONGER WITH MID/UPPER
LVL RIDGE ACRS THE NE CONUS...WHILE ECMWF AND GEM ARE FASTER AND
SUPPRESS THE HEAT TO OUR SOUTH SOONER. WL TREND TWD A EURO
SOLUTION FOR THIS PACKAGE...WHICH WL PLACE THE WARMEST TEMPS ACRS
OUR CWA ON WEDS...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVING LATE
WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 13-15C ON TUES AND
BTWN 14-16C ON WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A
FEW READINGS NEAR 90 POSSIBLE IN THE UHI AREAS OF THE CPV/SLV. IN
ADDITION...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WL HELP INCREASE THE HUMIDITY
LEVELS BY MID WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY. HAVE NOTED BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON TUES ACRS THE SLV WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...BUT MID LVL S/W ENERGY IS WEAK AND DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS MINIMAL...THEREFORE WL KEEP DRY. BETTER MOISTURE
AND S/W ENERGY ARRIVES LATE WEDS ACRS OUR NORTHWEST CWA...SO HAVE
INCLUDED CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SHOW CAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG...BUT BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS TOO OUR NORTH...SO NOT
EXPECTING ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD SVR ON WEDS. CHCS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS CONTS ON THURS WITH SFC COLD FRNT LOCATED ACRS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND MID LVL S/W ENERGY AND MOISTURE MOVING ACRS
OUR CWA. WL MENTION HIGH CHC POPS ON THURS...AND DROP TEMPS BACK
INTO THE 70S MTNS TO L/M 80S VALLEYS WITH MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP
ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE...EARLY THIS WEEK WL FEATURE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACRS OUR
TAF SITES THIS MORNING FROM IFR AT SLK/MSS TO MVFR AT
MPV/PBG/BTV...AND VFR AT RUT. THINKING IFR CIGS WL PREVAIL AT SLK
THRU 15Z TODAY...BASED ON CRNT OBS AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING PLENTY OF
LLVL MOISTURE. CIGS AT MSS WL JUMP TO MVFR BY 13Z...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BY 15Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WL SLOWLY BECOME VFR BY
18Z WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS...EXCEPT NORTHEAST
AT MSS. TONIGHT...EXPECT MORE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITH
PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE AROUND. THINKING FOG/BR WL DEVELOP BTWN
04-06Z AT MSS/MPV/SLK AND MAYBE EVEN RUT...GIVEN THE RECENT RAINS.
SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR VIS WL BE POSSIBLE AT PBG ALSO. HOWEVER...IF
CLRING IS SLOWER TO DEVELOP AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG/BR WL BE MUCH
LESS. CLRING TRENDS WL NEED TO BE MONTIORED CLOSELY THIS
AFTN/EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES FROM EASTERN
CANADA WL BUILDING INTO OUR TAF SITES FOR SATURDAY THUR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH LOCALIZED FOG/BR LIKELY AT MPV/SLK/MSS SAT/SUN AND
MONDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-12Z...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS. A DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLW WL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 221143
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
743 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD SOUTH
FROM CANADA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 742 AM EDT FRIDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT AT THIS TIME...WITH
JUST WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY STILL LOOKS
GOOD...SO NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 416 AM EDT FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION
TODAY. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS AT THIS TIME ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD
LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT FOR TODAY.
GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED SHOWERS HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING A SLIGHT BIT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THERE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD SOUTH
FROM CANADA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS
OVER THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS...SO HAVE INCLUDED A
MENTION OF RADIATION FOG DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY ACROSS THE USUAL FOG PRONE SHELTERED VALLEY OF EASTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT ...AS WELL AS THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
FCSTS...WITH LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND A MAINLY DRY FCST THRU TUES. STILL SOME LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
GFS SLOWER WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROF AND STRONGER WITH MID/UPPER
LVL RIDGE ACRS THE NE CONUS...WHILE ECMWF AND GEM ARE FASTER AND
SUPPRESS THE HEAT TO OUR SOUTH SOONER. WL TREND TWD A EURO
SOLUTION FOR THIS PACKAGE...WHICH WL PLACE THE WARMEST TEMPS ACRS
OUR CWA ON WEDS...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVING LATE
WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 13-15C ON TUES AND
BTWN 14-16C ON WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A
FEW READINGS NEAR 90 POSSIBLE IN THE UHI AREAS OF THE CPV/SLV. IN
ADDITION...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WL HELP INCREASE THE HUMIDITY
LEVELS BY MID WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY. HAVE NOTED BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON TUES ACRS THE SLV WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...BUT MID LVL S/W ENERGY IS WEAK AND DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS MINIMAL...THEREFORE WL KEEP DRY. BETTER MOISTURE
AND S/W ENERGY ARRIVES LATE WEDS ACRS OUR NORTHWEST CWA...SO HAVE
INCLUDED CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SHOW CAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG...BUT BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS TOO OUR NORTH...SO NOT
EXPECTING ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD SVR ON WEDS. CHCS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS CONTS ON THURS WITH SFC COLD FRNT LOCATED ACRS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND MID LVL S/W ENERGY AND MOISTURE MOVING ACRS
OUR CWA. WL MENTION HIGH CHC POPS ON THURS...AND DROP TEMPS BACK
INTO THE 70S MTNS TO L/M 80S VALLEYS WITH MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP
ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE...EARLY THIS WEEK WL FEATURE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACRS OUR
TAF SITES THIS MORNING FROM IFR AT SLK/MSS TO MVFR AT
MPV/PBG/BTV...AND VFR AT RUT. THINKING IFR CIGS WL PREVAIL AT SLK
THRU 15Z TODAY...BASED ON CRNT OBS AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING PLENTY OF
LLVL MOISTURE. CIGS AT MSS WL JUMP TO MVFR BY 13Z...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BY 15Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WL SLOWLY BECOME VFR BY
18Z WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS...EXCEPT NORTHEAST
AT MSS. TONIGHT...EXPECT MORE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITH
PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE AROUND. THINKING FOG/BR WL DEVELOP BTWN
04-06Z AT MSS/MPV/SLK AND MAYBE EVEN RUT...GIVEN THE RECENT RAINS.
SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR VIS WL BE POSSIBLE AT PBG ALSO. HOWEVER...IF
CLRING IS SLOWER TO DEVELOP AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG/BR WL BE MUCH
LESS. CLRING TRENDS WL NEED TO BE MONTIORED CLOSELY THIS
AFTN/EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES FROM EASTERN
CANADA WL BUILDING INTO OUR TAF SITES FOR SATURDAY THUR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH LOCALIZED FOG/BR LIKELY AT MPV/SLK/MSS SAT/SUN AND
MONDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-12Z...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS. A DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLW WL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 221143
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
743 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD SOUTH
FROM CANADA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 742 AM EDT FRIDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT AT THIS TIME...WITH
JUST WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY STILL LOOKS
GOOD...SO NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 416 AM EDT FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION
TODAY. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS AT THIS TIME ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD
LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT FOR TODAY.
GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED SHOWERS HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING A SLIGHT BIT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THERE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD SOUTH
FROM CANADA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS
OVER THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS...SO HAVE INCLUDED A
MENTION OF RADIATION FOG DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY ACROSS THE USUAL FOG PRONE SHELTERED VALLEY OF EASTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT ...AS WELL AS THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
FCSTS...WITH LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND A MAINLY DRY FCST THRU TUES. STILL SOME LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
GFS SLOWER WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROF AND STRONGER WITH MID/UPPER
LVL RIDGE ACRS THE NE CONUS...WHILE ECMWF AND GEM ARE FASTER AND
SUPPRESS THE HEAT TO OUR SOUTH SOONER. WL TREND TWD A EURO
SOLUTION FOR THIS PACKAGE...WHICH WL PLACE THE WARMEST TEMPS ACRS
OUR CWA ON WEDS...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVING LATE
WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 13-15C ON TUES AND
BTWN 14-16C ON WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A
FEW READINGS NEAR 90 POSSIBLE IN THE UHI AREAS OF THE CPV/SLV. IN
ADDITION...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WL HELP INCREASE THE HUMIDITY
LEVELS BY MID WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY. HAVE NOTED BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON TUES ACRS THE SLV WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...BUT MID LVL S/W ENERGY IS WEAK AND DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS MINIMAL...THEREFORE WL KEEP DRY. BETTER MOISTURE
AND S/W ENERGY ARRIVES LATE WEDS ACRS OUR NORTHWEST CWA...SO HAVE
INCLUDED CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SHOW CAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG...BUT BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS TOO OUR NORTH...SO NOT
EXPECTING ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD SVR ON WEDS. CHCS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS CONTS ON THURS WITH SFC COLD FRNT LOCATED ACRS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND MID LVL S/W ENERGY AND MOISTURE MOVING ACRS
OUR CWA. WL MENTION HIGH CHC POPS ON THURS...AND DROP TEMPS BACK
INTO THE 70S MTNS TO L/M 80S VALLEYS WITH MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP
ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE...EARLY THIS WEEK WL FEATURE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACRS OUR
TAF SITES THIS MORNING FROM IFR AT SLK/MSS TO MVFR AT
MPV/PBG/BTV...AND VFR AT RUT. THINKING IFR CIGS WL PREVAIL AT SLK
THRU 15Z TODAY...BASED ON CRNT OBS AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING PLENTY OF
LLVL MOISTURE. CIGS AT MSS WL JUMP TO MVFR BY 13Z...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BY 15Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WL SLOWLY BECOME VFR BY
18Z WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS...EXCEPT NORTHEAST
AT MSS. TONIGHT...EXPECT MORE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITH
PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE AROUND. THINKING FOG/BR WL DEVELOP BTWN
04-06Z AT MSS/MPV/SLK AND MAYBE EVEN RUT...GIVEN THE RECENT RAINS.
SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR VIS WL BE POSSIBLE AT PBG ALSO. HOWEVER...IF
CLRING IS SLOWER TO DEVELOP AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG/BR WL BE MUCH
LESS. CLRING TRENDS WL NEED TO BE MONTIORED CLOSELY THIS
AFTN/EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES FROM EASTERN
CANADA WL BUILDING INTO OUR TAF SITES FOR SATURDAY THUR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH LOCALIZED FOG/BR LIKELY AT MPV/SLK/MSS SAT/SUN AND
MONDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-12Z...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS. A DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLW WL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 221138
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
738 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD SOUTH
FROM CANADA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY. COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS AT THIS TIME ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD LIKELY POPS
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT FOR TODAY. GIVEN CLOUD
COVER AND EXPECTED SHOWERS HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW GFS MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A
SLIGHT BIT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THERE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD SOUTH
FROM CANADA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS
OVER THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS...SO HAVE INCLUDED A
MENTION OF RADIATION FOG DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY ACROSS THE USUAL FOG PRONE SHELTERED VALLEY OF EASTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT ...AS WELL AS THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
FCSTS...WITH LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND A MAINLY DRY FCST THRU TUES. STILL SOME LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
GFS SLOWER WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROF AND STRONGER WITH MID/UPPER
LVL RIDGE ACRS THE NE CONUS...WHILE ECMWF AND GEM ARE FASTER AND
SUPPRESS THE HEAT TO OUR SOUTH SOONER. WL TREND TWD A EURO
SOLUTION FOR THIS PACKAGE...WHICH WL PLACE THE WARMEST TEMPS ACRS
OUR CWA ON WEDS...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVING LATE
WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 13-15C ON TUES AND
BTWN 14-16C ON WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A
FEW READINGS NEAR 90 POSSIBLE IN THE UHI AREAS OF THE CPV/SLV. IN
ADDITION...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WL HELP INCREASE THE HUMIDITY
LEVELS BY MID WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY. HAVE NOTED BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON TUES ACRS THE SLV WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...BUT MID LVL S/W ENERGY IS WEAK AND DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS MINIMAL...THEREFORE WL KEEP DRY. BETTER MOISTURE
AND S/W ENERGY ARRIVES LATE WEDS ACRS OUR NORTHWEST CWA...SO HAVE
INCLUDED CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SHOW CAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG...BUT BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS TOO OUR NORTH...SO NOT
EXPECTING ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD SVR ON WEDS. CHCS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS CONTS ON THURS WITH SFC COLD FRNT LOCATED ACRS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND MID LVL S/W ENERGY AND MOISTURE MOVING ACRS
OUR CWA. WL MENTION HIGH CHC POPS ON THURS...AND DROP TEMPS BACK
INTO THE 70S MTNS TO L/M 80S VALLEYS WITH MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP
ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE...EARLY THIS WEEK WL FEATURE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACRS OUR
TAF SITES THIS MORNING FROM IFR AT SLK/MSS TO MVFR AT
MPV/PBG/BTV...AND VFR AT RUT. THINKING IFR CIGS WL PREVAIL AT SLK
THRU 15Z TODAY...BASED ON CRNT OBS AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING PLENTY OF
LLVL MOISTURE. CIGS AT MSS WL JUMP TO MVFR BY 13Z...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BY 15Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS WL SLOWLY BECOME VFR BY
18Z WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS...EXCEPT NORTHEAST
AT MSS. TONIGHT...EXPECT MORE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITH
PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE AROUND. THINKING FOG/BR WL DEVELOP BTWN
04-06Z AT MSS/MPV/SLK AND MAYBE EVEN RUT...GIVEN THE RECENT RAINS.
SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR VIS WL BE POSSIBLE AT PBG ALSO. HOWEVER...IF
CLRING IS SLOWER TO DEVELOP AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG/BR WL BE MUCH
LESS. CLRING TRENDS WL NEED TO BE MONTIORED CLOSELY THIS
AFTN/EVENING.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES FROM EASTERN
CANADA WL BUILDING INTO OUR TAF SITES FOR SATURDAY THUR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH LOCALIZED FOG/BR LIKELY AT MPV/SLK/MSS SAT/SUN AND
MONDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-12Z...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS. A DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLW WL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KALY 221134
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
734 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES LINGERING OVER
THE AREA FOR ONE MORE DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT ALL LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE FROM QUEBEC INTO THE NORTHEAST. IT WILL BRING INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM...SHOWER COVERAGE HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY SINCE
EARLIER THIS MORNING. HAVE UPDATED THE POP GRIDS TO REDUCE THE SIZE
OF THE AREA WITH LIKELY POPS. THE LIKELY POPS ARE NOW CONFINED TO AN
AREA NORTH AND EAST OF ALBANY FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING.
THE REST OF THE AREA HAS CHANCE POPS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 430 AM...SHOWERS REMAIN NUMEROUS FROM THE EXTREME EASTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...TO THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...SOUTHERN
VERMONT...THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND FROM COLUMBIA TO BERKSHIRE
COUNTIES. ALL MODELS NOW AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE ONE MORE DAY OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE SHOWERS
COULD CONTAIN BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...FORCING FROM THE UPPER
LOW WILL NOT BE AS STRONG TODAY AND PWATS WILL BE LOWER...SO AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY TSTMS WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO OCCUR TODAY.
IN FACT...HAVE NOT FORECAST ANY TSTMS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FROM THE EXTREME EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...TO THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND FROM COLUMBIA TO BERKSHIRE COUNTIES. DURING THE
DAY THE POPS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY DECREASE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE 65
TO 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END TONIGHT...AND A SLOW CLEARING
TREND WILL START LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN MOSTLY CLOUDY
OR CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 50 TO 60. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE HOLD
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT-TUE NT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL...AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. EXPECT
GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY RISING TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S IN
VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 50S.

WED-THU...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SOMETIME LATE WED...OR MORE LIKELY DURING THU. A WARM
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH
THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS
COULD GET CLOSE TO 90 ON WED. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH
NW PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE WED OR WED NT...WHERE SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC POPS ARE INDICATED. IT APPEARS THAT A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REGIONWIDE SHOULD OCCUR ON THU AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH. MAX TEMPS ON THU SHOULD STILL REACH THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S TO THE N AND W...WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR IF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWER. MIN TEMPS WED AND THU AM SHOULD BE IN THE 60S IN VALLEY
AREAS...AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A FEW PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN ANY SHOWERS OR AREAS OF
DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE TRENDING BACK DOWN TO MVFR AFTER 02Z/SAT. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/SAT...ESP AT
KPSF...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS NOT VERY HIGH SO DID NOT
EXPLICITLY INCLUDE IN TAFS.

WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE E TO NE...AT LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH
FRI NT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 70 PERCENT TODAY
AND RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS...SOME PLACES IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO THE
SARATOGA REGION HAVE RECEIVED UP TO 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN BASED ON
RADAR ESTIMATES. FLASH FLOODING OCCURRED EARLY LAST NIGHT IN
MONTGOMERY AND EXTREME NW SCHOHARIE COUNTY...WITH THE CANAJOHARIE
CREEK RISING TO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAS RECEIVED AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL DURING THE
PAST TWO DAYS...WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY...SHOWERS
WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS
OCCURRING THIS MORNING. FORCING TODAY WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE PAST
TWO DAYS...SO NO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TSTMS EXPECTED
TODAY SINCE TSTMS HAVE NOT BEEN FORECAST. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS SHOWERS
COULD PRODUCE UP TO ANOTHER INCH OF RAIN IN SOME PLACES TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT.

SHOWERS WILL COMPLETELY END BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOIL CONDITIONS
TO DRY OUT ONCE AGAIN...WITH STREAM AND RIVERS RECEDING...ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...KSL
AVIATION...KSL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



















000
FXUS61 KALY 221134
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
734 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES LINGERING OVER
THE AREA FOR ONE MORE DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT ALL LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE FROM QUEBEC INTO THE NORTHEAST. IT WILL BRING INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM...SHOWER COVERAGE HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY SINCE
EARLIER THIS MORNING. HAVE UPDATED THE POP GRIDS TO REDUCE THE SIZE
OF THE AREA WITH LIKELY POPS. THE LIKELY POPS ARE NOW CONFINED TO AN
AREA NORTH AND EAST OF ALBANY FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING.
THE REST OF THE AREA HAS CHANCE POPS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 430 AM...SHOWERS REMAIN NUMEROUS FROM THE EXTREME EASTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...TO THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...SOUTHERN
VERMONT...THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND FROM COLUMBIA TO BERKSHIRE
COUNTIES. ALL MODELS NOW AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE ONE MORE DAY OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE SHOWERS
COULD CONTAIN BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...FORCING FROM THE UPPER
LOW WILL NOT BE AS STRONG TODAY AND PWATS WILL BE LOWER...SO AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY TSTMS WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO OCCUR TODAY.
IN FACT...HAVE NOT FORECAST ANY TSTMS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FROM THE EXTREME EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...TO THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND FROM COLUMBIA TO BERKSHIRE COUNTIES. DURING THE
DAY THE POPS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY DECREASE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE 65
TO 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END TONIGHT...AND A SLOW CLEARING
TREND WILL START LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN MOSTLY CLOUDY
OR CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 50 TO 60. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE HOLD
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT-TUE NT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL...AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. EXPECT
GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY RISING TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S IN
VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 50S.

WED-THU...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SOMETIME LATE WED...OR MORE LIKELY DURING THU. A WARM
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH
THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS
COULD GET CLOSE TO 90 ON WED. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH
NW PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE WED OR WED NT...WHERE SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC POPS ARE INDICATED. IT APPEARS THAT A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REGIONWIDE SHOULD OCCUR ON THU AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH. MAX TEMPS ON THU SHOULD STILL REACH THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S TO THE N AND W...WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR IF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWER. MIN TEMPS WED AND THU AM SHOULD BE IN THE 60S IN VALLEY
AREAS...AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A FEW PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN ANY SHOWERS OR AREAS OF
DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE TRENDING BACK DOWN TO MVFR AFTER 02Z/SAT. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/SAT...ESP AT
KPSF...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS NOT VERY HIGH SO DID NOT
EXPLICITLY INCLUDE IN TAFS.

WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE E TO NE...AT LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH
FRI NT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 70 PERCENT TODAY
AND RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS...SOME PLACES IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO THE
SARATOGA REGION HAVE RECEIVED UP TO 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN BASED ON
RADAR ESTIMATES. FLASH FLOODING OCCURRED EARLY LAST NIGHT IN
MONTGOMERY AND EXTREME NW SCHOHARIE COUNTY...WITH THE CANAJOHARIE
CREEK RISING TO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAS RECEIVED AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL DURING THE
PAST TWO DAYS...WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY...SHOWERS
WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS
OCCURRING THIS MORNING. FORCING TODAY WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE PAST
TWO DAYS...SO NO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TSTMS EXPECTED
TODAY SINCE TSTMS HAVE NOT BEEN FORECAST. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS SHOWERS
COULD PRODUCE UP TO ANOTHER INCH OF RAIN IN SOME PLACES TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT.

SHOWERS WILL COMPLETELY END BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOIL CONDITIONS
TO DRY OUT ONCE AGAIN...WITH STREAM AND RIVERS RECEDING...ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...KSL
AVIATION...KSL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




















000
FXUS61 KALY 221036
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
635 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES LINGERING OVER
THE AREA FOR ONE MORE DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT ALL LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE FROM QUEBEC INTO THE NORTHEAST. IT WILL BRING INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM...SHOWER COVERAGE HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY SINCE
EARLIER THIS MORNING. HAVE UPDATED THE POP GRIDS TO REDUCE THE SIZE
OF THE AREA WITH LIKELY POPS. THE LIKELY POPS ARE NOW CONFINED TO AN
AREA NORTH AND EAST OF ALBANY FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING.
THE REST OF THE AREA HAS CHANCE POPS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 430 AM...SHOWERS REMAIN NUMEROUS FROM THE EXTREME EASTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...TO THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...SOUTHERN
VERMONT...THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND FROM COLUMBIA TO BERKSHIRE
COUNTIES. ALL MODELS NOW AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE ONE MORE DAY OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE SHOWERS
COULD CONTAIN BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...FORCING FROM THE UPPER
LOW WILL NOT BE AS STRONG TODAY AND PWATS WILL BE LOWER...SO AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY TSTMS WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO OCCUR TODAY.
IN FACT...HAVE NOT FORECAST ANY TSTMS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FROM THE EXTREME EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...TO THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND FROM COLUMBIA TO BERKSHIRE COUNTIES. DURING THE
DAY THE POPS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY DECREASE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE 65
TO 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END TONIGHT...AND A SLOW CLEARING
TREND WILL START LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN MOSTLY CLOUDY
OR CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 50 TO 60. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE HOLD
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT-TUE NT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL...AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. EXPECT
GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY RISING TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S IN
VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 50S.

WED-THU...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SOMETIME LATE WED...OR MORE LIKELY DURING THU. A WARM
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH
THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS
COULD GET CLOSE TO 90 ON WED. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH
NW PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE WED OR WED NT...WHERE SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC POPS ARE INDICATED. IT APPEARS THAT A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REGIONWIDE SHOULD OCCUR ON THU AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH. MAX TEMPS ON THU SHOULD STILL REACH THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S TO THE N AND W...WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR IF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWER. MIN TEMPS WED AND THU AM SHOULD BE IN THE 60S IN VALLEY
AREAS...AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z/FRI...DESPITE MOIST LOW LEVELS...IT APPEARS THAT
GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY FOR CIGS...SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAINLY IFR/LIFR CIGS
AT KPSF. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

AFTER 12Z/FRI...A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP
BETWEEN 12Z-14Z/FRI...AND COULD PERSIST UNTIL 18Z-20Z/FRI...AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS BECOME QUITE LIGHT...AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY MVFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS...IN ADDITION
TO THE DRIZZLE...WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE TAPERING IN AREAL COVERAGE FRI EVENING.

WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE E TO NE...AT LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH
FRI EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 70 PERCENT TODAY
AND RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS...SOME PLACES IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO THE
SARATOGA REGION HAVE RECEIVED UP TO 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN BASED ON
RADAR ESTIMATES. FLASH FLOODING OCCURRED EARLY LAST NIGHT IN
MONTGOMERY AND EXTREME NW SCHOHARIE COUNTY...WITH THE CANAJOHARIE
CREEK RISING TO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAS RECEIVED AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL DURING THE
PAST TWO DAYS...WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY...SHOWERS
WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS
OCCURRING THIS MORNING. FORCING TODAY WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE PAST
TWO DAYS...SO NO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TSTMS EXPECTED
TODAY SINCE TSTMS HAVE NOT BEEN FORECAST. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS SHOWERS
COULD PRODUCE UP TO ANOTHER INCH OF RAIN IN SOME PLACES TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT.

SHOWERS WILL COMPLETELY END BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOIL CONDITIONS
TO DRY OUT ONCE AGAIN...WITH STREAM AND RIVERS RECEDING...ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...KSL
AVIATION...KSL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
















000
FXUS61 KALY 221036
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
635 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES LINGERING OVER
THE AREA FOR ONE MORE DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT ALL LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE FROM QUEBEC INTO THE NORTHEAST. IT WILL BRING INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM...SHOWER COVERAGE HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY SINCE
EARLIER THIS MORNING. HAVE UPDATED THE POP GRIDS TO REDUCE THE SIZE
OF THE AREA WITH LIKELY POPS. THE LIKELY POPS ARE NOW CONFINED TO AN
AREA NORTH AND EAST OF ALBANY FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING.
THE REST OF THE AREA HAS CHANCE POPS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 430 AM...SHOWERS REMAIN NUMEROUS FROM THE EXTREME EASTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...TO THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...SOUTHERN
VERMONT...THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND FROM COLUMBIA TO BERKSHIRE
COUNTIES. ALL MODELS NOW AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE ONE MORE DAY OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE SHOWERS
COULD CONTAIN BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...FORCING FROM THE UPPER
LOW WILL NOT BE AS STRONG TODAY AND PWATS WILL BE LOWER...SO AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY TSTMS WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO OCCUR TODAY.
IN FACT...HAVE NOT FORECAST ANY TSTMS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FROM THE EXTREME EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...TO THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND FROM COLUMBIA TO BERKSHIRE COUNTIES. DURING THE
DAY THE POPS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY DECREASE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE 65
TO 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END TONIGHT...AND A SLOW CLEARING
TREND WILL START LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN MOSTLY CLOUDY
OR CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 50 TO 60. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE HOLD
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT-TUE NT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL...AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. EXPECT
GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY RISING TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S IN
VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 50S.

WED-THU...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SOMETIME LATE WED...OR MORE LIKELY DURING THU. A WARM
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH
THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS
COULD GET CLOSE TO 90 ON WED. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH
NW PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE WED OR WED NT...WHERE SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC POPS ARE INDICATED. IT APPEARS THAT A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REGIONWIDE SHOULD OCCUR ON THU AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH. MAX TEMPS ON THU SHOULD STILL REACH THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S TO THE N AND W...WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR IF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWER. MIN TEMPS WED AND THU AM SHOULD BE IN THE 60S IN VALLEY
AREAS...AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z/FRI...DESPITE MOIST LOW LEVELS...IT APPEARS THAT
GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY FOR CIGS...SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAINLY IFR/LIFR CIGS
AT KPSF. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

AFTER 12Z/FRI...A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP
BETWEEN 12Z-14Z/FRI...AND COULD PERSIST UNTIL 18Z-20Z/FRI...AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS BECOME QUITE LIGHT...AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY MVFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS...IN ADDITION
TO THE DRIZZLE...WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE TAPERING IN AREAL COVERAGE FRI EVENING.

WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE E TO NE...AT LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH
FRI EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 70 PERCENT TODAY
AND RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS...SOME PLACES IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO THE
SARATOGA REGION HAVE RECEIVED UP TO 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN BASED ON
RADAR ESTIMATES. FLASH FLOODING OCCURRED EARLY LAST NIGHT IN
MONTGOMERY AND EXTREME NW SCHOHARIE COUNTY...WITH THE CANAJOHARIE
CREEK RISING TO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAS RECEIVED AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL DURING THE
PAST TWO DAYS...WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY...SHOWERS
WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS
OCCURRING THIS MORNING. FORCING TODAY WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE PAST
TWO DAYS...SO NO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TSTMS EXPECTED
TODAY SINCE TSTMS HAVE NOT BEEN FORECAST. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS SHOWERS
COULD PRODUCE UP TO ANOTHER INCH OF RAIN IN SOME PLACES TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT.

SHOWERS WILL COMPLETELY END BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOIL CONDITIONS
TO DRY OUT ONCE AGAIN...WITH STREAM AND RIVERS RECEDING...ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...KSL
AVIATION...KSL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS

















000
FXUS61 KALY 220922
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
521 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES LINGERING OVER
THE AREA FOR ONE MORE DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT ALL LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE FROM QUEBEC INTO THE NORTHEAST. IT WILL BRING INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM...SHOWERS REMAIN NUMEROUS FROM THE EXTREME EASTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...TO THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...SOUTHERN
VERMONT...THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND FROM COLUMBIA TO BERKSHIRE
COUNTIES. ALL MODELS NOW AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE ONE MORE DAY OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE SHOWERS
COULD CONTAIN BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...FORCING FROM THE UPPER
LOW WILL NOT BE AS STRONG TODAY AND PWATS WILL BE LOWER...SO AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY TSTMS WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO OCCUR TODAY.
IN FACT...HAVE NOT FORECAST ANY TSTMS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FROM THE EXTREME EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...TO THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND FROM COLUMBIA TO BERKSHIRE COUNTIES. DURING THE
DAY THE POPS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY DECREASE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE 65
TO 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END TONIGHT...AND A SLOW CLEARING
TREND WILL START LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN MOSTLY CLOUDY
OR CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 50 TO 60. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE HOLD
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT-TUE NT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL...AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. EXPECT
GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY RISING TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S IN
VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 50S.

WED-THU...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SOMETIME LATE WED...OR MORE LIKELY DURING THU. A WARM
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH
THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS
COULD GET CLOSE TO 90 ON WED. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH
NW PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE WED OR WED NT...WHERE SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC POPS ARE INDICATED. IT APPEARS THAT A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REGIONWIDE SHOULD OCCUR ON THU AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH. MAX TEMPS ON THU SHOULD STILL REACH THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S TO THE N AND W...WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR IF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWER. MIN TEMPS WED AND THU AM SHOULD BE IN THE 60S IN VALLEY
AREAS...AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z/FRI...DESPITE MOIST LOW LEVELS...IT APPEARS THAT
GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY FOR CIGS...SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAINLY IFR/LIFR CIGS
AT KPSF. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

AFTER 12Z/FRI...A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP
BETWEEN 12Z-14Z/FRI...AND COULD PERSIST UNTIL 18Z-20Z/FRI...AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS BECOME QUITE LIGHT...AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY MVFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS...IN ADDITION
TO THE DRIZZLE...WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE TAPERING IN AREAL COVERAGE FRI EVENING.

WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE E TO NE...AT LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH
FRI EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 70 PERCENT TODAY
AND RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS...SOME PLACES IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO THE
SARATOGA REGION HAVE RECEIVED UP TO 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN BASED ON
RADAR ESTIMATES. FLASH FLOODING OCCURRED EARLY LAST NIGHT IN
MONTGOMERY AND EXTREME NW SCHOHARIE COUNTY...WITH THE CANAJOHARIE
CREEK RISING TO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAS RECEIVED AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL DURING THE
PAST TWO DAYS...WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY...SHOWERS
WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS
OCCURRING THIS MORNING. FORCING TODAY WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE PAST
TWO DAYS...SO NO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TSTMS EXPECTED
TODAY SINCE TSTMS HAVE NOT BEEN FORECAST. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS SHOWERS
COULD PRODUCE UP TO ANOTHER INCH OF RAIN IN SOME PLACES TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT.

SHOWERS WILL COMPLETELY END BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOIL CONDITIONS
TO DRY OUT ONCE AGAIN...WITH STREAM AND RIVERS RECEDING...ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...KSL
AVIATION...KSL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS














000
FXUS61 KALY 220922
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
521 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES LINGERING OVER
THE AREA FOR ONE MORE DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT ALL LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE FROM QUEBEC INTO THE NORTHEAST. IT WILL BRING INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM...SHOWERS REMAIN NUMEROUS FROM THE EXTREME EASTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...TO THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...SOUTHERN
VERMONT...THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND FROM COLUMBIA TO BERKSHIRE
COUNTIES. ALL MODELS NOW AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE ONE MORE DAY OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE SHOWERS
COULD CONTAIN BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...FORCING FROM THE UPPER
LOW WILL NOT BE AS STRONG TODAY AND PWATS WILL BE LOWER...SO AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY TSTMS WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO OCCUR TODAY.
IN FACT...HAVE NOT FORECAST ANY TSTMS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FROM THE EXTREME EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...TO THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND FROM COLUMBIA TO BERKSHIRE COUNTIES. DURING THE
DAY THE POPS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY DECREASE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE 65
TO 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END TONIGHT...AND A SLOW CLEARING
TREND WILL START LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN MOSTLY CLOUDY
OR CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 50 TO 60. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE HOLD
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT-TUE NT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL...AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. EXPECT
GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY RISING TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S IN
VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 50S.

WED-THU...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SOMETIME LATE WED...OR MORE LIKELY DURING THU. A WARM
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH
THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS
COULD GET CLOSE TO 90 ON WED. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH
NW PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE WED OR WED NT...WHERE SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC POPS ARE INDICATED. IT APPEARS THAT A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REGIONWIDE SHOULD OCCUR ON THU AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH. MAX TEMPS ON THU SHOULD STILL REACH THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S TO THE N AND W...WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR IF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWER. MIN TEMPS WED AND THU AM SHOULD BE IN THE 60S IN VALLEY
AREAS...AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z/FRI...DESPITE MOIST LOW LEVELS...IT APPEARS THAT
GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY FOR CIGS...SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAINLY IFR/LIFR CIGS
AT KPSF. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

AFTER 12Z/FRI...A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP
BETWEEN 12Z-14Z/FRI...AND COULD PERSIST UNTIL 18Z-20Z/FRI...AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS BECOME QUITE LIGHT...AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY MVFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS...IN ADDITION
TO THE DRIZZLE...WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE TAPERING IN AREAL COVERAGE FRI EVENING.

WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE E TO NE...AT LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH
FRI EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 70 PERCENT TODAY
AND RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS...SOME PLACES IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO THE
SARATOGA REGION HAVE RECEIVED UP TO 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN BASED ON
RADAR ESTIMATES. FLASH FLOODING OCCURRED EARLY LAST NIGHT IN
MONTGOMERY AND EXTREME NW SCHOHARIE COUNTY...WITH THE CANAJOHARIE
CREEK RISING TO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAS RECEIVED AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL DURING THE
PAST TWO DAYS...WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY...SHOWERS
WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS
OCCURRING THIS MORNING. FORCING TODAY WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE PAST
TWO DAYS...SO NO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TSTMS EXPECTED
TODAY SINCE TSTMS HAVE NOT BEEN FORECAST. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS SHOWERS
COULD PRODUCE UP TO ANOTHER INCH OF RAIN IN SOME PLACES TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT.

SHOWERS WILL COMPLETELY END BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOIL CONDITIONS
TO DRY OUT ONCE AGAIN...WITH STREAM AND RIVERS RECEDING...ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...KSL
AVIATION...KSL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS














000
FXUS61 KALY 220922
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
521 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES LINGERING OVER
THE AREA FOR ONE MORE DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT ALL LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE FROM QUEBEC INTO THE NORTHEAST. IT WILL BRING INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM...SHOWERS REMAIN NUMEROUS FROM THE EXTREME EASTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...TO THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...SOUTHERN
VERMONT...THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND FROM COLUMBIA TO BERKSHIRE
COUNTIES. ALL MODELS NOW AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE ONE MORE DAY OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE SHOWERS
COULD CONTAIN BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...FORCING FROM THE UPPER
LOW WILL NOT BE AS STRONG TODAY AND PWATS WILL BE LOWER...SO AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY TSTMS WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO OCCUR TODAY.
IN FACT...HAVE NOT FORECAST ANY TSTMS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FROM THE EXTREME EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...TO THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND FROM COLUMBIA TO BERKSHIRE COUNTIES. DURING THE
DAY THE POPS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY DECREASE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE 65
TO 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END TONIGHT...AND A SLOW CLEARING
TREND WILL START LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN MOSTLY CLOUDY
OR CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 50 TO 60. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE HOLD
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT-TUE NT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL...AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. EXPECT
GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY RISING TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S IN
VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 50S.

WED-THU...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SOMETIME LATE WED...OR MORE LIKELY DURING THU. A WARM
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH
THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS
COULD GET CLOSE TO 90 ON WED. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH
NW PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE WED OR WED NT...WHERE SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC POPS ARE INDICATED. IT APPEARS THAT A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REGIONWIDE SHOULD OCCUR ON THU AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH. MAX TEMPS ON THU SHOULD STILL REACH THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S TO THE N AND W...WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR IF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWER. MIN TEMPS WED AND THU AM SHOULD BE IN THE 60S IN VALLEY
AREAS...AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z/FRI...DESPITE MOIST LOW LEVELS...IT APPEARS THAT
GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY FOR CIGS...SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAINLY IFR/LIFR CIGS
AT KPSF. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

AFTER 12Z/FRI...A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP
BETWEEN 12Z-14Z/FRI...AND COULD PERSIST UNTIL 18Z-20Z/FRI...AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS BECOME QUITE LIGHT...AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY MVFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS...IN ADDITION
TO THE DRIZZLE...WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE TAPERING IN AREAL COVERAGE FRI EVENING.

WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE E TO NE...AT LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH
FRI EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 70 PERCENT TODAY
AND RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS...SOME PLACES IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO THE
SARATOGA REGION HAVE RECEIVED UP TO 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN BASED ON
RADAR ESTIMATES. FLASH FLOODING OCCURRED EARLY LAST NIGHT IN
MONTGOMERY AND EXTREME NW SCHOHARIE COUNTY...WITH THE CANAJOHARIE
CREEK RISING TO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAS RECEIVED AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL DURING THE
PAST TWO DAYS...WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY...SHOWERS
WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS
OCCURRING THIS MORNING. FORCING TODAY WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE PAST
TWO DAYS...SO NO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TSTMS EXPECTED
TODAY SINCE TSTMS HAVE NOT BEEN FORECAST. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS SHOWERS
COULD PRODUCE UP TO ANOTHER INCH OF RAIN IN SOME PLACES TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT.

SHOWERS WILL COMPLETELY END BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOIL CONDITIONS
TO DRY OUT ONCE AGAIN...WITH STREAM AND RIVERS RECEDING...ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...KSL
AVIATION...KSL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS














000
FXUS61 KALY 220922
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
521 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES LINGERING OVER
THE AREA FOR ONE MORE DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT ALL LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE FROM QUEBEC INTO THE NORTHEAST. IT WILL BRING INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM...SHOWERS REMAIN NUMEROUS FROM THE EXTREME EASTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...TO THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...SOUTHERN
VERMONT...THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND FROM COLUMBIA TO BERKSHIRE
COUNTIES. ALL MODELS NOW AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE ONE MORE DAY OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE SHOWERS
COULD CONTAIN BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...FORCING FROM THE UPPER
LOW WILL NOT BE AS STRONG TODAY AND PWATS WILL BE LOWER...SO AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY TSTMS WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO OCCUR TODAY.
IN FACT...HAVE NOT FORECAST ANY TSTMS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FROM THE EXTREME EASTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...TO THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND FROM COLUMBIA TO BERKSHIRE COUNTIES. DURING THE
DAY THE POPS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY DECREASE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE 65
TO 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END TONIGHT...AND A SLOW CLEARING
TREND WILL START LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN MOSTLY CLOUDY
OR CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 50 TO 60. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE HOLD
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT-TUE NT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL...AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. EXPECT
GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY RISING TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S IN
VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 50S.

WED-THU...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SOMETIME LATE WED...OR MORE LIKELY DURING THU. A WARM
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH
THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS
COULD GET CLOSE TO 90 ON WED. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH
NW PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE WED OR WED NT...WHERE SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW CHC POPS ARE INDICATED. IT APPEARS THAT A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REGIONWIDE SHOULD OCCUR ON THU AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH. MAX TEMPS ON THU SHOULD STILL REACH THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S TO THE N AND W...WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR IF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWER. MIN TEMPS WED AND THU AM SHOULD BE IN THE 60S IN VALLEY
AREAS...AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z/FRI...DESPITE MOIST LOW LEVELS...IT APPEARS THAT
GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY FOR CIGS...SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAINLY IFR/LIFR CIGS
AT KPSF. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

AFTER 12Z/FRI...A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP
BETWEEN 12Z-14Z/FRI...AND COULD PERSIST UNTIL 18Z-20Z/FRI...AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS BECOME QUITE LIGHT...AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY MVFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS...IN ADDITION
TO THE DRIZZLE...WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE TAPERING IN AREAL COVERAGE FRI EVENING.

WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE E TO NE...AT LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH
FRI EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 70 PERCENT TODAY
AND RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS...SOME PLACES IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO THE
SARATOGA REGION HAVE RECEIVED UP TO 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN BASED ON
RADAR ESTIMATES. FLASH FLOODING OCCURRED EARLY LAST NIGHT IN
MONTGOMERY AND EXTREME NW SCHOHARIE COUNTY...WITH THE CANAJOHARIE
CREEK RISING TO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAS RECEIVED AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL DURING THE
PAST TWO DAYS...WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY...SHOWERS
WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS
OCCURRING THIS MORNING. FORCING TODAY WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE PAST
TWO DAYS...SO NO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TSTMS EXPECTED
TODAY SINCE TSTMS HAVE NOT BEEN FORECAST. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS SHOWERS
COULD PRODUCE UP TO ANOTHER INCH OF RAIN IN SOME PLACES TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT.

SHOWERS WILL COMPLETELY END BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOIL CONDITIONS
TO DRY OUT ONCE AGAIN...WITH STREAM AND RIVERS RECEDING...ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...KSL
AVIATION...KSL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS














000
FXUS61 KBTV 220817
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
417 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD SOUTH
FROM CANADA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY. COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS AT THIS TIME ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD LIKELY POPS
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT FOR TODAY. GIVEN CLOUD
COVER AND EXPECTED SHOWERS HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW GFS MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A
SLIGHT BIT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THERE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD SOUTH
FROM CANADA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS
OVER THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS...SO HAVE INCLUDED A
MENTION OF RADIATION FOG DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY ACROSS THE USUAL FOG PRONE SHELTERED VALLEY OF EASTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT ...AS WELL AS THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
FCSTS...WITH LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND A MAINLY DRY FCST THRU TUES. STILL SOME LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
GFS SLOWER WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROF AND STRONGER WITH MID/UPPER
LVL RIDGE ACRS THE NE CONUS...WHILE ECMWF AND GEM ARE FASTER AND
SUPPRESS THE HEAT TO OUR SOUTH SOONER. WL TREND TWD A EURO
SOLUTION FOR THIS PACKAGE...WHICH WL PLACE THE WARMEST TEMPS ACRS
OUR CWA ON WEDS...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVING LATE
WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 13-15C ON TUES AND
BTWN 14-16C ON WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A
FEW READINGS NEAR 90 POSSIBLE IN THE UHI AREAS OF THE CPV/SLV. IN
ADDITION...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WL HELP INCREASE THE HUMIDITY
LEVELS BY MID WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY. HAVE NOTED BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON TUES ACRS THE SLV WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...BUT MID LVL S/W ENERGY IS WEAK AND DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS MINIMAL...THEREFORE WL KEEP DRY. BETTER MOISTURE
AND S/W ENERGY ARRIVES LATE WEDS ACRS OUR NORTHWEST CWA...SO HAVE
INCLUDED CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SHOW CAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG...BUT BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS TOO OUR NORTH...SO NOT
EXPECTING ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD SVR ON WEDS. CHCS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS CONTS ON THURS WITH SFC COLD FRNT LOCATED ACRS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND MID LVL S/W ENERGY AND MOISTURE MOVING ACRS
OUR CWA. WL MENTION HIGH CHC POPS ON THURS...AND DROP TEMPS BACK
INTO THE 70S MTNS TO L/M 80S VALLEYS WITH MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP
ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE...EARLY THIS WEEK WL FEATURE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACRS OUR
TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING FROM IFR AT SLK TO MVFR AT
MPV/PBG/BTV...AND VFR AT RUT/MSS. THINKING IFR CIGS WL PREVAIL AT
SLK THRU 12Z FRIDAY...BASED ON CRNT OBS AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING
PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE. ALSO...HAVE PLACED IFR TO DEVELOP AT
MSS/MPV BTWN 08-09Z...DUE TO SATURATED LLVLS FROM RECENT RAINFALL
AND LATEST TRENDS OF INCREASING THE RH VALUES IN THE LOWEST COUPLE
HUNDRED FEET. THINKING IFR VIS AT MSS WITH FOG/BR WITH IFR CIGS AT
MPV...AS WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY STRONGER JUST ABOVE THE SFC...HELPING
IN THE PROMOTION OF A LOW STRATUS DECK. THINKING MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT PBG/RUT/BTV WITH SOUTHEAST FLW AND CIGS
BTWN 2500 AND 4500 FEET. SOME LOWERING CIGS WL BE POSSIBLE TWD
SUNRISE AT PBG...ESPECIALLY WITH LLVL EASTERLY FLW COMING OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. CIGS/VIS WL SLOWLY IMPROVE ON FRIDAY...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS BY 15Z AT SLK/MPV AND VFR BY 18Z AT ALL TAF SITES.
THINKING MOST OF THE TAF SITES WL REMAIN DRY THRU THE
PERIOD...MAYBE A SPOT SHOWER WITH VIS AROUND 5SM AT MPV/RUT...WITH
SOME DRIZZLE.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES FROM EASTERN
CANADA WL BUILDING INTO OUR TAF SITES FOR SATURDAY THUR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH LOCALIZED FOG/BR LIKELY AT MPV/SLK/MSS SAT/SUN AND
MONDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-12Z...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS. A DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLW WL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 220817
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
417 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD SOUTH
FROM CANADA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY. COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS AT THIS TIME ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD LIKELY POPS
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT FOR TODAY. GIVEN CLOUD
COVER AND EXPECTED SHOWERS HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW GFS MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A
SLIGHT BIT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THERE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT FRIDAY...HAVE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD SOUTH
FROM CANADA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS
OVER THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS...SO HAVE INCLUDED A
MENTION OF RADIATION FOG DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY ACROSS THE USUAL FOG PRONE SHELTERED VALLEY OF EASTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT ...AS WELL AS THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
FCSTS...WITH LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND A MAINLY DRY FCST THRU TUES. STILL SOME LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
GFS SLOWER WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROF AND STRONGER WITH MID/UPPER
LVL RIDGE ACRS THE NE CONUS...WHILE ECMWF AND GEM ARE FASTER AND
SUPPRESS THE HEAT TO OUR SOUTH SOONER. WL TREND TWD A EURO
SOLUTION FOR THIS PACKAGE...WHICH WL PLACE THE WARMEST TEMPS ACRS
OUR CWA ON WEDS...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVING LATE
WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 13-15C ON TUES AND
BTWN 14-16C ON WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A
FEW READINGS NEAR 90 POSSIBLE IN THE UHI AREAS OF THE CPV/SLV. IN
ADDITION...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WL HELP INCREASE THE HUMIDITY
LEVELS BY MID WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY. HAVE NOTED BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON TUES ACRS THE SLV WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...BUT MID LVL S/W ENERGY IS WEAK AND DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS MINIMAL...THEREFORE WL KEEP DRY. BETTER MOISTURE
AND S/W ENERGY ARRIVES LATE WEDS ACRS OUR NORTHWEST CWA...SO HAVE
INCLUDED CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SHOW CAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG...BUT BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS TOO OUR NORTH...SO NOT
EXPECTING ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD SVR ON WEDS. CHCS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS CONTS ON THURS WITH SFC COLD FRNT LOCATED ACRS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND MID LVL S/W ENERGY AND MOISTURE MOVING ACRS
OUR CWA. WL MENTION HIGH CHC POPS ON THURS...AND DROP TEMPS BACK
INTO THE 70S MTNS TO L/M 80S VALLEYS WITH MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP
ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE...EARLY THIS WEEK WL FEATURE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACRS OUR
TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING FROM IFR AT SLK TO MVFR AT
MPV/PBG/BTV...AND VFR AT RUT/MSS. THINKING IFR CIGS WL PREVAIL AT
SLK THRU 12Z FRIDAY...BASED ON CRNT OBS AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING
PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE. ALSO...HAVE PLACED IFR TO DEVELOP AT
MSS/MPV BTWN 08-09Z...DUE TO SATURATED LLVLS FROM RECENT RAINFALL
AND LATEST TRENDS OF INCREASING THE RH VALUES IN THE LOWEST COUPLE
HUNDRED FEET. THINKING IFR VIS AT MSS WITH FOG/BR WITH IFR CIGS AT
MPV...AS WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY STRONGER JUST ABOVE THE SFC...HELPING
IN THE PROMOTION OF A LOW STRATUS DECK. THINKING MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT PBG/RUT/BTV WITH SOUTHEAST FLW AND CIGS
BTWN 2500 AND 4500 FEET. SOME LOWERING CIGS WL BE POSSIBLE TWD
SUNRISE AT PBG...ESPECIALLY WITH LLVL EASTERLY FLW COMING OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. CIGS/VIS WL SLOWLY IMPROVE ON FRIDAY...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS BY 15Z AT SLK/MPV AND VFR BY 18Z AT ALL TAF SITES.
THINKING MOST OF THE TAF SITES WL REMAIN DRY THRU THE
PERIOD...MAYBE A SPOT SHOWER WITH VIS AROUND 5SM AT MPV/RUT...WITH
SOME DRIZZLE.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES FROM EASTERN
CANADA WL BUILDING INTO OUR TAF SITES FOR SATURDAY THUR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH LOCALIZED FOG/BR LIKELY AT MPV/SLK/MSS SAT/SUN AND
MONDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-12Z...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS. A DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLW WL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER







000
FXUS61 KBTV 220744
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
344 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 138 AM EDT FRIDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. LATEST
RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO DIMINISH IN AREAL
COVERAGE. HAVE LOWERED POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...
EXCEPT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LOW THEN CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. NAM AND
GFS DEPICT A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND AND PASSING
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING PEAK HEATING. THEREFORE...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FORECAST
DURING THE AFTN HOURS...TRENDING DRIER BY EVENING. MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVERCAST TRENDS TO PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY BY AFTN FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGHS FRIDAY ARE COOLEST IN SOUTHERN VT AND ESSEX COUNTY NY AND
WARMEST NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WITH DRY WEATHER
FOR SATURDAY. WHILE CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
FOR MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...EASTERLY TRAJECTORIES AND SATURATED
NAM/BTV-4 LOW-LEVEL RH PROGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR MARINE
LAYER/STRATUS IN EASTERN VT. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FROM +9C IN EASTERN
VT TO AROUND +11C ELSEWHERE...LOOKING AT HIGHS ONLY AROUND 70 IN
EASTERN VT TO MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWS LOWS TO RANGE FROM UPPER
40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
FCSTS...WITH LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND A MAINLY DRY FCST THRU TUES. STILL SOME LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
GFS SLOWER WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROF AND STRONGER WITH MID/UPPER
LVL RIDGE ACRS THE NE CONUS...WHILE ECMWF AND GEM ARE FASTER AND
SUPPRESS THE HEAT TO OUR SOUTH SOONER. WL TREND TWD A EURO
SOLUTION FOR THIS PACKAGE...WHICH WL PLACE THE WARMEST TEMPS ACRS
OUR CWA ON WEDS...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVING LATE
WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 13-15C ON TUES AND
BTWN 14-16C ON WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A
FEW READINGS NEAR 90 POSSIBLE IN THE UHI AREAS OF THE CPV/SLV. IN
ADDITION...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WL HELP INCREASE THE HUMIDITY
LEVELS BY MID WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY. HAVE NOTED BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON TUES ACRS THE SLV WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...BUT MID LVL S/W ENERGY IS WEAK AND DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS MINIMAL...THEREFORE WL KEEP DRY. BETTER MOISTURE
AND S/W ENERGY ARRIVES LATE WEDS ACRS OUR NORTHWEST CWA...SO HAVE
INCLUDED CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SHOW CAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG...BUT BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS TOO OUR NORTH...SO NOT
EXPECTING ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD SVR ON WEDS. CHCS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS CONTS ON THURS WITH SFC COLD FRNT LOCATED ACRS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND MID LVL S/W ENERGY AND MOISTURE MOVING ACRS
OUR CWA. WL MENTION HIGH CHC POPS ON THURS...AND DROP TEMPS BACK
INTO THE 70S MTNS TO L/M 80S VALLEYS WITH MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP
ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE...EARLY THIS WEEK WL FEATURE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACRS OUR
TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING FROM IFR AT SLK TO MVFR AT
MPV/PBG/BTV...AND VFR AT RUT/MSS. THINKING IFR CIGS WL PREVAIL AT
SLK THRU 12Z FRIDAY...BASED ON CRNT OBS AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING
PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE. ALSO...HAVE PLACED IFR TO DEVELOP AT
MSS/MPV BTWN 08-09Z...DUE TO SATURATED LLVLS FROM RECENT RAINFALL
AND LATEST TRENDS OF INCREASING THE RH VALUES IN THE LOWEST COUPLE
HUNDRED FEET. THINKING IFR VIS AT MSS WITH FOG/BR WITH IFR CIGS AT
MPV...AS WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY STRONGER JUST ABOVE THE SFC...HELPING
IN THE PROMOTION OF A LOW STRATUS DECK. THINKING MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT PBG/RUT/BTV WITH SOUTHEAST FLW AND CIGS
BTWN 2500 AND 4500 FEET. SOME LOWERING CIGS WL BE POSSIBLE TWD
SUNRISE AT PBG...ESPECIALLY WITH LLVL EASTERLY FLW COMING OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. CIGS/VIS WL SLOWLY IMPROVE ON FRIDAY...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS BY 15Z AT SLK/MPV AND VFR BY 18Z AT ALL TAF SITES.
THINKING MOST OF THE TAF SITES WL REMAIN DRY THRU THE
PERIOD...MAYBE A SPOT SHOWER WITH VIS AROUND 5SM AT MPV/RUT...WITH
SOME DRIZZLE.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES FROM EASTERN
CANADA WL BUILDING INTO OUR TAF SITES FOR SATURDAY THUR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH LOCALIZED FOG/BR LIKELY AT MPV/SLK/MSS SAT/SUN AND
MONDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-12Z...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS. A DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLW WL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 220744
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
344 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 138 AM EDT FRIDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. LATEST
RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO DIMINISH IN AREAL
COVERAGE. HAVE LOWERED POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...
EXCEPT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LOW THEN CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. NAM AND
GFS DEPICT A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND AND PASSING
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING PEAK HEATING. THEREFORE...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FORECAST
DURING THE AFTN HOURS...TRENDING DRIER BY EVENING. MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVERCAST TRENDS TO PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY BY AFTN FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGHS FRIDAY ARE COOLEST IN SOUTHERN VT AND ESSEX COUNTY NY AND
WARMEST NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WITH DRY WEATHER
FOR SATURDAY. WHILE CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
FOR MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...EASTERLY TRAJECTORIES AND SATURATED
NAM/BTV-4 LOW-LEVEL RH PROGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR MARINE
LAYER/STRATUS IN EASTERN VT. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FROM +9C IN EASTERN
VT TO AROUND +11C ELSEWHERE...LOOKING AT HIGHS ONLY AROUND 70 IN
EASTERN VT TO MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWS LOWS TO RANGE FROM UPPER
40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
FCSTS...WITH LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND A MAINLY DRY FCST THRU TUES. STILL SOME LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
GFS SLOWER WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROF AND STRONGER WITH MID/UPPER
LVL RIDGE ACRS THE NE CONUS...WHILE ECMWF AND GEM ARE FASTER AND
SUPPRESS THE HEAT TO OUR SOUTH SOONER. WL TREND TWD A EURO
SOLUTION FOR THIS PACKAGE...WHICH WL PLACE THE WARMEST TEMPS ACRS
OUR CWA ON WEDS...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVING LATE
WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 13-15C ON TUES AND
BTWN 14-16C ON WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A
FEW READINGS NEAR 90 POSSIBLE IN THE UHI AREAS OF THE CPV/SLV. IN
ADDITION...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WL HELP INCREASE THE HUMIDITY
LEVELS BY MID WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY. HAVE NOTED BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON TUES ACRS THE SLV WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...BUT MID LVL S/W ENERGY IS WEAK AND DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS MINIMAL...THEREFORE WL KEEP DRY. BETTER MOISTURE
AND S/W ENERGY ARRIVES LATE WEDS ACRS OUR NORTHWEST CWA...SO HAVE
INCLUDED CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SHOW CAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG...BUT BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS TOO OUR NORTH...SO NOT
EXPECTING ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD SVR ON WEDS. CHCS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS CONTS ON THURS WITH SFC COLD FRNT LOCATED ACRS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND MID LVL S/W ENERGY AND MOISTURE MOVING ACRS
OUR CWA. WL MENTION HIGH CHC POPS ON THURS...AND DROP TEMPS BACK
INTO THE 70S MTNS TO L/M 80S VALLEYS WITH MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP
ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE...EARLY THIS WEEK WL FEATURE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACRS OUR
TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING FROM IFR AT SLK TO MVFR AT
MPV/PBG/BTV...AND VFR AT RUT/MSS. THINKING IFR CIGS WL PREVAIL AT
SLK THRU 12Z FRIDAY...BASED ON CRNT OBS AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING
PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE. ALSO...HAVE PLACED IFR TO DEVELOP AT
MSS/MPV BTWN 08-09Z...DUE TO SATURATED LLVLS FROM RECENT RAINFALL
AND LATEST TRENDS OF INCREASING THE RH VALUES IN THE LOWEST COUPLE
HUNDRED FEET. THINKING IFR VIS AT MSS WITH FOG/BR WITH IFR CIGS AT
MPV...AS WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY STRONGER JUST ABOVE THE SFC...HELPING
IN THE PROMOTION OF A LOW STRATUS DECK. THINKING MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT PBG/RUT/BTV WITH SOUTHEAST FLW AND CIGS
BTWN 2500 AND 4500 FEET. SOME LOWERING CIGS WL BE POSSIBLE TWD
SUNRISE AT PBG...ESPECIALLY WITH LLVL EASTERLY FLW COMING OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. CIGS/VIS WL SLOWLY IMPROVE ON FRIDAY...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS BY 15Z AT SLK/MPV AND VFR BY 18Z AT ALL TAF SITES.
THINKING MOST OF THE TAF SITES WL REMAIN DRY THRU THE
PERIOD...MAYBE A SPOT SHOWER WITH VIS AROUND 5SM AT MPV/RUT...WITH
SOME DRIZZLE.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES FROM EASTERN
CANADA WL BUILDING INTO OUR TAF SITES FOR SATURDAY THUR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH LOCALIZED FOG/BR LIKELY AT MPV/SLK/MSS SAT/SUN AND
MONDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-12Z...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS. A DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLW WL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 220744
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
344 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 138 AM EDT FRIDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. LATEST
RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO DIMINISH IN AREAL
COVERAGE. HAVE LOWERED POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...
EXCEPT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LOW THEN CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. NAM AND
GFS DEPICT A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND AND PASSING
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING PEAK HEATING. THEREFORE...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FORECAST
DURING THE AFTN HOURS...TRENDING DRIER BY EVENING. MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVERCAST TRENDS TO PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY BY AFTN FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGHS FRIDAY ARE COOLEST IN SOUTHERN VT AND ESSEX COUNTY NY AND
WARMEST NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WITH DRY WEATHER
FOR SATURDAY. WHILE CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
FOR MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...EASTERLY TRAJECTORIES AND SATURATED
NAM/BTV-4 LOW-LEVEL RH PROGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR MARINE
LAYER/STRATUS IN EASTERN VT. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FROM +9C IN EASTERN
VT TO AROUND +11C ELSEWHERE...LOOKING AT HIGHS ONLY AROUND 70 IN
EASTERN VT TO MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWS LOWS TO RANGE FROM UPPER
40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
FCSTS...WITH LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND A MAINLY DRY FCST THRU TUES. STILL SOME LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
GFS SLOWER WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROF AND STRONGER WITH MID/UPPER
LVL RIDGE ACRS THE NE CONUS...WHILE ECMWF AND GEM ARE FASTER AND
SUPPRESS THE HEAT TO OUR SOUTH SOONER. WL TREND TWD A EURO
SOLUTION FOR THIS PACKAGE...WHICH WL PLACE THE WARMEST TEMPS ACRS
OUR CWA ON WEDS...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVING LATE
WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 13-15C ON TUES AND
BTWN 14-16C ON WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A
FEW READINGS NEAR 90 POSSIBLE IN THE UHI AREAS OF THE CPV/SLV. IN
ADDITION...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WL HELP INCREASE THE HUMIDITY
LEVELS BY MID WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY. HAVE NOTED BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON TUES ACRS THE SLV WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...BUT MID LVL S/W ENERGY IS WEAK AND DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS MINIMAL...THEREFORE WL KEEP DRY. BETTER MOISTURE
AND S/W ENERGY ARRIVES LATE WEDS ACRS OUR NORTHWEST CWA...SO HAVE
INCLUDED CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SHOW CAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG...BUT BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS TOO OUR NORTH...SO NOT
EXPECTING ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD SVR ON WEDS. CHCS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS CONTS ON THURS WITH SFC COLD FRNT LOCATED ACRS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND MID LVL S/W ENERGY AND MOISTURE MOVING ACRS
OUR CWA. WL MENTION HIGH CHC POPS ON THURS...AND DROP TEMPS BACK
INTO THE 70S MTNS TO L/M 80S VALLEYS WITH MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP
ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE...EARLY THIS WEEK WL FEATURE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACRS OUR
TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING FROM IFR AT SLK TO MVFR AT
MPV/PBG/BTV...AND VFR AT RUT/MSS. THINKING IFR CIGS WL PREVAIL AT
SLK THRU 12Z FRIDAY...BASED ON CRNT OBS AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING
PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE. ALSO...HAVE PLACED IFR TO DEVELOP AT
MSS/MPV BTWN 08-09Z...DUE TO SATURATED LLVLS FROM RECENT RAINFALL
AND LATEST TRENDS OF INCREASING THE RH VALUES IN THE LOWEST COUPLE
HUNDRED FEET. THINKING IFR VIS AT MSS WITH FOG/BR WITH IFR CIGS AT
MPV...AS WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY STRONGER JUST ABOVE THE SFC...HELPING
IN THE PROMOTION OF A LOW STRATUS DECK. THINKING MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT PBG/RUT/BTV WITH SOUTHEAST FLW AND CIGS
BTWN 2500 AND 4500 FEET. SOME LOWERING CIGS WL BE POSSIBLE TWD
SUNRISE AT PBG...ESPECIALLY WITH LLVL EASTERLY FLW COMING OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. CIGS/VIS WL SLOWLY IMPROVE ON FRIDAY...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS BY 15Z AT SLK/MPV AND VFR BY 18Z AT ALL TAF SITES.
THINKING MOST OF THE TAF SITES WL REMAIN DRY THRU THE
PERIOD...MAYBE A SPOT SHOWER WITH VIS AROUND 5SM AT MPV/RUT...WITH
SOME DRIZZLE.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES FROM EASTERN
CANADA WL BUILDING INTO OUR TAF SITES FOR SATURDAY THUR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH LOCALIZED FOG/BR LIKELY AT MPV/SLK/MSS SAT/SUN AND
MONDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-12Z...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS. A DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLW WL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 220744
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
344 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 138 AM EDT FRIDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. LATEST
RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO DIMINISH IN AREAL
COVERAGE. HAVE LOWERED POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...
EXCEPT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LOW THEN CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. NAM AND
GFS DEPICT A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND AND PASSING
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING PEAK HEATING. THEREFORE...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FORECAST
DURING THE AFTN HOURS...TRENDING DRIER BY EVENING. MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVERCAST TRENDS TO PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY BY AFTN FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGHS FRIDAY ARE COOLEST IN SOUTHERN VT AND ESSEX COUNTY NY AND
WARMEST NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WITH DRY WEATHER
FOR SATURDAY. WHILE CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
FOR MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...EASTERLY TRAJECTORIES AND SATURATED
NAM/BTV-4 LOW-LEVEL RH PROGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR MARINE
LAYER/STRATUS IN EASTERN VT. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FROM +9C IN EASTERN
VT TO AROUND +11C ELSEWHERE...LOOKING AT HIGHS ONLY AROUND 70 IN
EASTERN VT TO MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWS LOWS TO RANGE FROM UPPER
40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
FCSTS...WITH LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND A MAINLY DRY FCST THRU TUES. STILL SOME LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
GFS SLOWER WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROF AND STRONGER WITH MID/UPPER
LVL RIDGE ACRS THE NE CONUS...WHILE ECMWF AND GEM ARE FASTER AND
SUPPRESS THE HEAT TO OUR SOUTH SOONER. WL TREND TWD A EURO
SOLUTION FOR THIS PACKAGE...WHICH WL PLACE THE WARMEST TEMPS ACRS
OUR CWA ON WEDS...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVING LATE
WEDS INTO THURS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 13-15C ON TUES AND
BTWN 14-16C ON WEDS...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A
FEW READINGS NEAR 90 POSSIBLE IN THE UHI AREAS OF THE CPV/SLV. IN
ADDITION...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WL HELP INCREASE THE HUMIDITY
LEVELS BY MID WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY. HAVE NOTED BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON TUES ACRS THE SLV WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...BUT MID LVL S/W ENERGY IS WEAK AND DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS MINIMAL...THEREFORE WL KEEP DRY. BETTER MOISTURE
AND S/W ENERGY ARRIVES LATE WEDS ACRS OUR NORTHWEST CWA...SO HAVE
INCLUDED CHC POPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SHOW CAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG...BUT BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS TOO OUR NORTH...SO NOT
EXPECTING ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD SVR ON WEDS. CHCS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS CONTS ON THURS WITH SFC COLD FRNT LOCATED ACRS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND MID LVL S/W ENERGY AND MOISTURE MOVING ACRS
OUR CWA. WL MENTION HIGH CHC POPS ON THURS...AND DROP TEMPS BACK
INTO THE 70S MTNS TO L/M 80S VALLEYS WITH MORE CLOUDS/PRECIP
ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE...EARLY THIS WEEK WL FEATURE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACRS OUR
TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING FROM IFR AT SLK TO MVFR AT
MPV/PBG/BTV...AND VFR AT RUT/MSS. THINKING IFR CIGS WL PREVAIL AT
SLK THRU 12Z FRIDAY...BASED ON CRNT OBS AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING
PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE. ALSO...HAVE PLACED IFR TO DEVELOP AT
MSS/MPV BTWN 08-09Z...DUE TO SATURATED LLVLS FROM RECENT RAINFALL
AND LATEST TRENDS OF INCREASING THE RH VALUES IN THE LOWEST COUPLE
HUNDRED FEET. THINKING IFR VIS AT MSS WITH FOG/BR WITH IFR CIGS AT
MPV...AS WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY STRONGER JUST ABOVE THE SFC...HELPING
IN THE PROMOTION OF A LOW STRATUS DECK. THINKING MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT PBG/RUT/BTV WITH SOUTHEAST FLW AND CIGS
BTWN 2500 AND 4500 FEET. SOME LOWERING CIGS WL BE POSSIBLE TWD
SUNRISE AT PBG...ESPECIALLY WITH LLVL EASTERLY FLW COMING OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. CIGS/VIS WL SLOWLY IMPROVE ON FRIDAY...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS BY 15Z AT SLK/MPV AND VFR BY 18Z AT ALL TAF SITES.
THINKING MOST OF THE TAF SITES WL REMAIN DRY THRU THE
PERIOD...MAYBE A SPOT SHOWER WITH VIS AROUND 5SM AT MPV/RUT...WITH
SOME DRIZZLE.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES FROM EASTERN
CANADA WL BUILDING INTO OUR TAF SITES FOR SATURDAY THUR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH LOCALIZED FOG/BR LIKELY AT MPV/SLK/MSS SAT/SUN AND
MONDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-12Z...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS. A DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLW WL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KALY 220604
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES LINGERING OVER THE AREA.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM QUEBEC INTO THE
NORTHEAST. IT WILL BRING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 145 AM...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF WITH ONLY SOUTHERN
VERMONT STILL SHOWING ENOUGH COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS TO WARRANT
LIKELY POPS FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. ELSEWHERE SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS ARE FORECAST. THE THREAT OF HEAVY HAS ALSO GREATLY
DIMINISHED WITH NO TSTMS OVER THE REGION FOR THE PAST TWO
HOURS...AND NO ADDITIONAL TSTMS EXPECTED TO FORM FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT.

FOR ALL AREAS POPS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY DECREASE DURING THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO SHIFT OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
FOR THE THREAT FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESP DURING DAYTIME
HEATING. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON FRIDAY...AS THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL BE STARTING TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IT STILL LOOKS TO STAY FAIRLY CLOUDY WITH
THE UPPER LOW NEARBY...SO TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN. MAX TEMPS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A LINGERING SPRINKLE OR SHOWER
CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...OTHERWISE IT
LOOKS TO BE DRY. FINALLY...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL START TO
OCCUR...ESP BY SAT MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AS DRIER AIR
STARTS TO WORK IN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. MIN TEMPS FRI NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 50S...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 70S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE
EXPECTED...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO FALL EASILY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER OVER THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OFFSHORE. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. HIGHS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST BEGINS TO APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY BUT THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING SHOULD STILL BE IN PLACE.
SO...JUST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z/FRI...DESPITE MOIST LOW LEVELS...IT APPEARS THAT
GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY FOR CIGS...SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAINLY IFR/LIFR CIGS
AT KPSF. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

AFTER 12Z/FRI...A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP
BETWEEN 12Z-14Z/FRI...AND COULD PERSIST UNTIL 18Z-20Z/FRI...AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS BECOME QUITE LIGHT...AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY MVFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS...IN ADDITION
TO THE DRIZZLE...WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE TAPERING IN AREAL COVERAGE FRI EVENING.

WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE E TO NE...AT LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH
FRI EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL
KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM. RH VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100
PERCENT IN MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT. WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
AROUND TOMORROW...RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 70 PERCENT THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THANKS TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THESE HEAVIEST OF THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OF UP TO TWO
INCHES PER HOUR.

SOME AREAS...GENERALLY FROM AROUND AMSTERDAM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SACANDAGA LAKE AND INTO WESTERN SARATOGA COUNTY...SAW TWO TO FOUR
INCHES OF RAIN LAST NIGHT. SOME PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY SAW AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE
LATEST ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...GROUND CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN RATHER DRY...DUE TO A LACK
OF RECENT RAINFALL. AS A RESULT...MOST AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE
SOME RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IF HEAVY RAIN OCCURS OVER THOSE AREAS THAT
SAW RAINFALL LAST NIGHT OR IF RAINFALL REPEATEDLY MOVES OVER THE SAME
LOCATION THROUGH INTO EVENING...THEN SOME MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR. AN ISOLATED
FLASH FLOOD CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT...ALTHOUGH ANY POSSIBLE
FLOOD ISSUES WOULD LIKELY BE MORE OF THE POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN TYPE
CONCERNS.

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL END TONIGHT...AS THE BEST
FORCING STARTS TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA. EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS INTO TOMORROW...NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON MAIN STREAM RIVERS DUE TO THE
RAINFALL...NO FLOODING OF LARGER RIVERS IS EXPECTED. WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...RIVER LEVELS WILL
RECEDE AND/OR HOLD STEADY INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/FRUGIS/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...KSL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS











000
FXUS61 KALY 220604
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES LINGERING OVER THE AREA.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM QUEBEC INTO THE
NORTHEAST. IT WILL BRING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 145 AM...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF WITH ONLY SOUTHERN
VERMONT STILL SHOWING ENOUGH COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS TO WARRANT
LIKELY POPS FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. ELSEWHERE SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS ARE FORECAST. THE THREAT OF HEAVY HAS ALSO GREATLY
DIMINISHED WITH NO TSTMS OVER THE REGION FOR THE PAST TWO
HOURS...AND NO ADDITIONAL TSTMS EXPECTED TO FORM FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT.

FOR ALL AREAS POPS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY DECREASE DURING THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO SHIFT OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
FOR THE THREAT FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESP DURING DAYTIME
HEATING. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON FRIDAY...AS THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL BE STARTING TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IT STILL LOOKS TO STAY FAIRLY CLOUDY WITH
THE UPPER LOW NEARBY...SO TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN. MAX TEMPS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A LINGERING SPRINKLE OR SHOWER
CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...OTHERWISE IT
LOOKS TO BE DRY. FINALLY...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL START TO
OCCUR...ESP BY SAT MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AS DRIER AIR
STARTS TO WORK IN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. MIN TEMPS FRI NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 50S...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 70S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE
EXPECTED...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO FALL EASILY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER OVER THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OFFSHORE. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. HIGHS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST BEGINS TO APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY BUT THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING SHOULD STILL BE IN PLACE.
SO...JUST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z/FRI...DESPITE MOIST LOW LEVELS...IT APPEARS THAT
GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY FOR CIGS...SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAINLY IFR/LIFR CIGS
AT KPSF. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

AFTER 12Z/FRI...A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP
BETWEEN 12Z-14Z/FRI...AND COULD PERSIST UNTIL 18Z-20Z/FRI...AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS BECOME QUITE LIGHT...AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY MVFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS...IN ADDITION
TO THE DRIZZLE...WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE TAPERING IN AREAL COVERAGE FRI EVENING.

WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE E TO NE...AT LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH
FRI EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL
KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM. RH VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100
PERCENT IN MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT. WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
AROUND TOMORROW...RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 70 PERCENT THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THANKS TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THESE HEAVIEST OF THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OF UP TO TWO
INCHES PER HOUR.

SOME AREAS...GENERALLY FROM AROUND AMSTERDAM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SACANDAGA LAKE AND INTO WESTERN SARATOGA COUNTY...SAW TWO TO FOUR
INCHES OF RAIN LAST NIGHT. SOME PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY SAW AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE
LATEST ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...GROUND CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN RATHER DRY...DUE TO A LACK
OF RECENT RAINFALL. AS A RESULT...MOST AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE
SOME RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IF HEAVY RAIN OCCURS OVER THOSE AREAS THAT
SAW RAINFALL LAST NIGHT OR IF RAINFALL REPEATEDLY MOVES OVER THE SAME
LOCATION THROUGH INTO EVENING...THEN SOME MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR. AN ISOLATED
FLASH FLOOD CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT...ALTHOUGH ANY POSSIBLE
FLOOD ISSUES WOULD LIKELY BE MORE OF THE POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN TYPE
CONCERNS.

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL END TONIGHT...AS THE BEST
FORCING STARTS TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA. EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS INTO TOMORROW...NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON MAIN STREAM RIVERS DUE TO THE
RAINFALL...NO FLOODING OF LARGER RIVERS IS EXPECTED. WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...RIVER LEVELS WILL
RECEDE AND/OR HOLD STEADY INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/FRUGIS/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...KSL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS











000
FXUS61 KALY 220604
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES LINGERING OVER THE AREA.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM QUEBEC INTO THE
NORTHEAST. IT WILL BRING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 145 AM...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF WITH ONLY SOUTHERN
VERMONT STILL SHOWING ENOUGH COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS TO WARRANT
LIKELY POPS FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. ELSEWHERE SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS ARE FORECAST. THE THREAT OF HEAVY HAS ALSO GREATLY
DIMINISHED WITH NO TSTMS OVER THE REGION FOR THE PAST TWO
HOURS...AND NO ADDITIONAL TSTMS EXPECTED TO FORM FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT.

FOR ALL AREAS POPS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY DECREASE DURING THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO SHIFT OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
FOR THE THREAT FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESP DURING DAYTIME
HEATING. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON FRIDAY...AS THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL BE STARTING TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IT STILL LOOKS TO STAY FAIRLY CLOUDY WITH
THE UPPER LOW NEARBY...SO TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN. MAX TEMPS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A LINGERING SPRINKLE OR SHOWER
CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...OTHERWISE IT
LOOKS TO BE DRY. FINALLY...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL START TO
OCCUR...ESP BY SAT MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AS DRIER AIR
STARTS TO WORK IN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. MIN TEMPS FRI NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 50S...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 70S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE
EXPECTED...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO FALL EASILY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER OVER THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OFFSHORE. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. HIGHS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST BEGINS TO APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY BUT THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING SHOULD STILL BE IN PLACE.
SO...JUST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z/FRI...DESPITE MOIST LOW LEVELS...IT APPEARS THAT
GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY FOR CIGS...SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAINLY IFR/LIFR CIGS
AT KPSF. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

AFTER 12Z/FRI...A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP
BETWEEN 12Z-14Z/FRI...AND COULD PERSIST UNTIL 18Z-20Z/FRI...AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS BECOME QUITE LIGHT...AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY MVFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS...IN ADDITION
TO THE DRIZZLE...WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE TAPERING IN AREAL COVERAGE FRI EVENING.

WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE E TO NE...AT LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH
FRI EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL
KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM. RH VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100
PERCENT IN MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT. WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
AROUND TOMORROW...RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 70 PERCENT THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THANKS TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THESE HEAVIEST OF THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OF UP TO TWO
INCHES PER HOUR.

SOME AREAS...GENERALLY FROM AROUND AMSTERDAM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SACANDAGA LAKE AND INTO WESTERN SARATOGA COUNTY...SAW TWO TO FOUR
INCHES OF RAIN LAST NIGHT. SOME PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY SAW AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE
LATEST ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...GROUND CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN RATHER DRY...DUE TO A LACK
OF RECENT RAINFALL. AS A RESULT...MOST AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE
SOME RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IF HEAVY RAIN OCCURS OVER THOSE AREAS THAT
SAW RAINFALL LAST NIGHT OR IF RAINFALL REPEATEDLY MOVES OVER THE SAME
LOCATION THROUGH INTO EVENING...THEN SOME MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR. AN ISOLATED
FLASH FLOOD CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT...ALTHOUGH ANY POSSIBLE
FLOOD ISSUES WOULD LIKELY BE MORE OF THE POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN TYPE
CONCERNS.

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL END TONIGHT...AS THE BEST
FORCING STARTS TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA. EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS INTO TOMORROW...NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON MAIN STREAM RIVERS DUE TO THE
RAINFALL...NO FLOODING OF LARGER RIVERS IS EXPECTED. WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...RIVER LEVELS WILL
RECEDE AND/OR HOLD STEADY INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/FRUGIS/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...KSL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS











000
FXUS61 KALY 220604
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES LINGERING OVER THE AREA.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM QUEBEC INTO THE
NORTHEAST. IT WILL BRING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 145 AM...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF WITH ONLY SOUTHERN
VERMONT STILL SHOWING ENOUGH COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS TO WARRANT
LIKELY POPS FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. ELSEWHERE SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS ARE FORECAST. THE THREAT OF HEAVY HAS ALSO GREATLY
DIMINISHED WITH NO TSTMS OVER THE REGION FOR THE PAST TWO
HOURS...AND NO ADDITIONAL TSTMS EXPECTED TO FORM FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT.

FOR ALL AREAS POPS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY DECREASE DURING THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO SHIFT OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
FOR THE THREAT FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESP DURING DAYTIME
HEATING. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON FRIDAY...AS THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL BE STARTING TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IT STILL LOOKS TO STAY FAIRLY CLOUDY WITH
THE UPPER LOW NEARBY...SO TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN. MAX TEMPS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A LINGERING SPRINKLE OR SHOWER
CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...OTHERWISE IT
LOOKS TO BE DRY. FINALLY...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL START TO
OCCUR...ESP BY SAT MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AS DRIER AIR
STARTS TO WORK IN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. MIN TEMPS FRI NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 50S...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 70S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE
EXPECTED...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO FALL EASILY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER OVER THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OFFSHORE. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. HIGHS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST BEGINS TO APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY BUT THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING SHOULD STILL BE IN PLACE.
SO...JUST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z/FRI...DESPITE MOIST LOW LEVELS...IT APPEARS THAT
GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY FOR CIGS...SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAINLY IFR/LIFR CIGS
AT KPSF. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

AFTER 12Z/FRI...A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP
BETWEEN 12Z-14Z/FRI...AND COULD PERSIST UNTIL 18Z-20Z/FRI...AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS BECOME QUITE LIGHT...AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY MVFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS...IN ADDITION
TO THE DRIZZLE...WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE TAPERING IN AREAL COVERAGE FRI EVENING.

WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE E TO NE...AT LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH
FRI EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL
KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM. RH VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100
PERCENT IN MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT. WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
AROUND TOMORROW...RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 70 PERCENT THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THANKS TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THESE HEAVIEST OF THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OF UP TO TWO
INCHES PER HOUR.

SOME AREAS...GENERALLY FROM AROUND AMSTERDAM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SACANDAGA LAKE AND INTO WESTERN SARATOGA COUNTY...SAW TWO TO FOUR
INCHES OF RAIN LAST NIGHT. SOME PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY SAW AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE
LATEST ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...GROUND CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN RATHER DRY...DUE TO A LACK
OF RECENT RAINFALL. AS A RESULT...MOST AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE
SOME RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IF HEAVY RAIN OCCURS OVER THOSE AREAS THAT
SAW RAINFALL LAST NIGHT OR IF RAINFALL REPEATEDLY MOVES OVER THE SAME
LOCATION THROUGH INTO EVENING...THEN SOME MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR. AN ISOLATED
FLASH FLOOD CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT...ALTHOUGH ANY POSSIBLE
FLOOD ISSUES WOULD LIKELY BE MORE OF THE POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN TYPE
CONCERNS.

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL END TONIGHT...AS THE BEST
FORCING STARTS TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA. EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS INTO TOMORROW...NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON MAIN STREAM RIVERS DUE TO THE
RAINFALL...NO FLOODING OF LARGER RIVERS IS EXPECTED. WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...RIVER LEVELS WILL
RECEDE AND/OR HOLD STEADY INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/FRUGIS/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...KSL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS











000
FXUS61 KBTV 220548
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
148 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 138 AM EDT FRIDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. LATEST
RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO DIMINISH IN AREAL
COVERAGE. HAVE LOWERED POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...
EXCEPT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LOW THEN CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. NAM AND
GFS DEPICT A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND AND PASSING
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING PEAK HEATING. THEREFORE...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FORECAST
DURING THE AFTN HOURS...TRENDING DRIER BY EVENING. MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVERCAST TRENDS TO PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY BY AFTN FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGHS FRIDAY ARE COOLEST IN SOUTHERN VT AND ESSEX COUNTY NY AND
WARMEST NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WITH DRY WEATHER
FOR SATURDAY. WHILE CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
FOR MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...EASTERLY TRAJECTORIES AND SATURATED
NAM/BTV-4 LOW-LEVEL RH PROGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR MARINE
LAYER/STRATUS IN EASTERN VT. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FROM +9C IN EASTERN
VT TO AROUND +11C ELSEWHERE...LOOKING AT HIGHS ONLY AROUND 70 IN
EASTERN VT TO MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWS LOWS TO RANGE FROM UPPER
40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS
FOR THE TIME. MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY STRONG
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE (AKA: RIDGOSAUROUS). 12Z SUITE OF
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER AND PRIOR
RUNS. NOTED THAT THE 12Z ECMWF TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS FOR THE
SCENARIO ON WEDNESDAY AND IS NOW SHOWING A STRONGER RIDGE INTO MID
WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE FOR THURSDAY, WITH EURO SHOWING A FASTER/MORE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE. THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
FOR BEYOND THE OFFICIAL PERIOD I`M FORECASTING FOR, BUT AN EARLY
LOOK AT GUIDANCE FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND SEEMS TO INDICATE IT WILL
FEATURE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. WE`LL
SEE. AS FOR THE DAILY SPECIFICS, JUST READ ON:

SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF HERE SO CONTINUED
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. 850 MPH TEMPERATURES RISE TO 11-13C (WARMEST
IN WESTERN HALF), WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S EAST TO
LOW 80S WEST. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP ANY CLOUDS TO A MINIMUM.
AT NIGHT, CLEAR AND CALM SO LOOK FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD, SO HARDLY A BREEZE. 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER DEGREE TO ABOUT 12-14C, SO ADD ABOUT 1-3F
FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FROM SUNDAY -- LOWER 80S PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE.
MONDAY NIGHT, MORE CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH SOUTH OF HERE, SO A BIT OF A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
GETS ESTABLISHED. 850MB TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER DEGREE. WITH WEST
FLOW, THIS SHOULD ALSO HELP WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SO I`D EXPECT MID 80S TO BE A SOLID BET IN THE VALLEYS. THE
EURO RUNS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER, SO HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE
WARMER GFS TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH SOUTH OF HERE, SO THE AREA IS SOLIDLY IN
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES PUSHING 15-16C WHICH
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN SPOTS. ADD IN SOME
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE ADIRONDACKS, AND I THINK PARTS OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COULD MAKE A RUN AT 90F. I DID INCREASE
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES OVER THE BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH WAS
BIASED A BIT COOL DUE TO THE EURO AND CLIMO IN THE MOS. THAT BLEND
GAVE ME 81F FOR BTV. MEX GUIDANCE WAS 83F. I WENT 85F. WE`LL SEE
HOW FUTURE GUIDANCE GOES AND IF THE TREND TO BE WARMER IS NEEDED.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AGAIN CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

THURSDAY...THIS IS WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN. AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THE EURO IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
A SHORTWAVE. AT THIS POINT, BEST COURSE IS TO TAKE A BLEND. HAVE
PAINTED IN CHANCE LEVEL OF POPS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES MAY AGAIN BE VERY WARM IF THE GFS IS RIGHT. OR COOLER
IF THE EURO IS RIGHT. STUCK WITH THE BLEND. WHICH STILL FEATURES
LOTS OF LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACRS OUR
TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING FROM IFR AT SLK TO MVFR AT
MPV/PBG/BTV...AND VFR AT RUT/MSS. THINKING IFR CIGS WL PREVAIL AT
SLK THRU 12Z FRIDAY...BASED ON CRNT OBS AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING
PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE. ALSO...HAVE PLACED IFR TO DEVELOP AT
MSS/MPV BTWN 08-09Z...DUE TO SATURATED LLVLS FROM RECENT RAINFALL
AND LATEST TRENDS OF INCREASING THE RH VALUES IN THE LOWEST COUPLE
HUNDRED FEET. THINKING IFR VIS AT MSS WITH FOG/BR WITH IFR CIGS AT
MPV...AS WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY STRONGER JUST ABOVE THE SFC...HELPING
IN THE PROMOTION OF A LOW STRATUS DECK. THINKING MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT PBG/RUT/BTV WITH SOUTHEAST FLW AND CIGS
BTWN 2500 AND 4500 FEET. SOME LOWERING CIGS WL BE POSSIBLE TWD
SUNRISE AT PBG...ESPECIALLY WITH LLVL EASTERLY FLW COMING OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. CIGS/VIS WL SLOWLY IMPROVE ON FRIDAY...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS BY 15Z AT SLK/MPV AND VFR BY 18Z AT ALL TAF SITES.
THINKING MOST OF THE TAF SITES WL REMAIN DRY THRU THE
PERIOD...MAYBE A SPOT SHOWER WITH VIS AROUND 5SM AT MPV/RUT...WITH
SOME DRIZZLE.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES FROM EASTERN
CANADA WL BUILDING INTO OUR TAF SITES FOR SATURDAY THUR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH LOCALIZED FOG/BR LIKELY AT MPV/SLK/MSS SAT/SUN AND
MONDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-12Z...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS. A DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLW WL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 220548
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
148 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 138 AM EDT FRIDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. LATEST
RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO DIMINISH IN AREAL
COVERAGE. HAVE LOWERED POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...
EXCEPT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LOW THEN CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. NAM AND
GFS DEPICT A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND AND PASSING
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING PEAK HEATING. THEREFORE...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FORECAST
DURING THE AFTN HOURS...TRENDING DRIER BY EVENING. MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVERCAST TRENDS TO PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY BY AFTN FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGHS FRIDAY ARE COOLEST IN SOUTHERN VT AND ESSEX COUNTY NY AND
WARMEST NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WITH DRY WEATHER
FOR SATURDAY. WHILE CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
FOR MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...EASTERLY TRAJECTORIES AND SATURATED
NAM/BTV-4 LOW-LEVEL RH PROGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR MARINE
LAYER/STRATUS IN EASTERN VT. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FROM +9C IN EASTERN
VT TO AROUND +11C ELSEWHERE...LOOKING AT HIGHS ONLY AROUND 70 IN
EASTERN VT TO MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWS LOWS TO RANGE FROM UPPER
40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS
FOR THE TIME. MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY STRONG
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE (AKA: RIDGOSAUROUS). 12Z SUITE OF
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER AND PRIOR
RUNS. NOTED THAT THE 12Z ECMWF TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS FOR THE
SCENARIO ON WEDNESDAY AND IS NOW SHOWING A STRONGER RIDGE INTO MID
WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE FOR THURSDAY, WITH EURO SHOWING A FASTER/MORE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE. THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
FOR BEYOND THE OFFICIAL PERIOD I`M FORECASTING FOR, BUT AN EARLY
LOOK AT GUIDANCE FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND SEEMS TO INDICATE IT WILL
FEATURE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. WE`LL
SEE. AS FOR THE DAILY SPECIFICS, JUST READ ON:

SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF HERE SO CONTINUED
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. 850 MPH TEMPERATURES RISE TO 11-13C (WARMEST
IN WESTERN HALF), WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S EAST TO
LOW 80S WEST. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP ANY CLOUDS TO A MINIMUM.
AT NIGHT, CLEAR AND CALM SO LOOK FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD, SO HARDLY A BREEZE. 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER DEGREE TO ABOUT 12-14C, SO ADD ABOUT 1-3F
FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FROM SUNDAY -- LOWER 80S PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE.
MONDAY NIGHT, MORE CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH SOUTH OF HERE, SO A BIT OF A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
GETS ESTABLISHED. 850MB TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER DEGREE. WITH WEST
FLOW, THIS SHOULD ALSO HELP WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SO I`D EXPECT MID 80S TO BE A SOLID BET IN THE VALLEYS. THE
EURO RUNS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER, SO HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE
WARMER GFS TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH SOUTH OF HERE, SO THE AREA IS SOLIDLY IN
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES PUSHING 15-16C WHICH
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN SPOTS. ADD IN SOME
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE ADIRONDACKS, AND I THINK PARTS OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COULD MAKE A RUN AT 90F. I DID INCREASE
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES OVER THE BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH WAS
BIASED A BIT COOL DUE TO THE EURO AND CLIMO IN THE MOS. THAT BLEND
GAVE ME 81F FOR BTV. MEX GUIDANCE WAS 83F. I WENT 85F. WE`LL SEE
HOW FUTURE GUIDANCE GOES AND IF THE TREND TO BE WARMER IS NEEDED.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AGAIN CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

THURSDAY...THIS IS WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN. AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THE EURO IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
A SHORTWAVE. AT THIS POINT, BEST COURSE IS TO TAKE A BLEND. HAVE
PAINTED IN CHANCE LEVEL OF POPS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES MAY AGAIN BE VERY WARM IF THE GFS IS RIGHT. OR COOLER
IF THE EURO IS RIGHT. STUCK WITH THE BLEND. WHICH STILL FEATURES
LOTS OF LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACRS OUR
TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING FROM IFR AT SLK TO MVFR AT
MPV/PBG/BTV...AND VFR AT RUT/MSS. THINKING IFR CIGS WL PREVAIL AT
SLK THRU 12Z FRIDAY...BASED ON CRNT OBS AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING
PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE. ALSO...HAVE PLACED IFR TO DEVELOP AT
MSS/MPV BTWN 08-09Z...DUE TO SATURATED LLVLS FROM RECENT RAINFALL
AND LATEST TRENDS OF INCREASING THE RH VALUES IN THE LOWEST COUPLE
HUNDRED FEET. THINKING IFR VIS AT MSS WITH FOG/BR WITH IFR CIGS AT
MPV...AS WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY STRONGER JUST ABOVE THE SFC...HELPING
IN THE PROMOTION OF A LOW STRATUS DECK. THINKING MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT PBG/RUT/BTV WITH SOUTHEAST FLW AND CIGS
BTWN 2500 AND 4500 FEET. SOME LOWERING CIGS WL BE POSSIBLE TWD
SUNRISE AT PBG...ESPECIALLY WITH LLVL EASTERLY FLW COMING OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. CIGS/VIS WL SLOWLY IMPROVE ON FRIDAY...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS BY 15Z AT SLK/MPV AND VFR BY 18Z AT ALL TAF SITES.
THINKING MOST OF THE TAF SITES WL REMAIN DRY THRU THE
PERIOD...MAYBE A SPOT SHOWER WITH VIS AROUND 5SM AT MPV/RUT...WITH
SOME DRIZZLE.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES FROM EASTERN
CANADA WL BUILDING INTO OUR TAF SITES FOR SATURDAY THUR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH LOCALIZED FOG/BR LIKELY AT MPV/SLK/MSS SAT/SUN AND
MONDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-12Z...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS. A DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLW WL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 220548
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
148 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 138 AM EDT FRIDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. LATEST
RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO DIMINISH IN AREAL
COVERAGE. HAVE LOWERED POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...
EXCEPT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LOW THEN CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. NAM AND
GFS DEPICT A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND AND PASSING
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING PEAK HEATING. THEREFORE...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FORECAST
DURING THE AFTN HOURS...TRENDING DRIER BY EVENING. MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVERCAST TRENDS TO PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY BY AFTN FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGHS FRIDAY ARE COOLEST IN SOUTHERN VT AND ESSEX COUNTY NY AND
WARMEST NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WITH DRY WEATHER
FOR SATURDAY. WHILE CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
FOR MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...EASTERLY TRAJECTORIES AND SATURATED
NAM/BTV-4 LOW-LEVEL RH PROGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR MARINE
LAYER/STRATUS IN EASTERN VT. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FROM +9C IN EASTERN
VT TO AROUND +11C ELSEWHERE...LOOKING AT HIGHS ONLY AROUND 70 IN
EASTERN VT TO MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWS LOWS TO RANGE FROM UPPER
40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS
FOR THE TIME. MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY STRONG
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE (AKA: RIDGOSAUROUS). 12Z SUITE OF
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER AND PRIOR
RUNS. NOTED THAT THE 12Z ECMWF TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS FOR THE
SCENARIO ON WEDNESDAY AND IS NOW SHOWING A STRONGER RIDGE INTO MID
WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE FOR THURSDAY, WITH EURO SHOWING A FASTER/MORE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE. THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
FOR BEYOND THE OFFICIAL PERIOD I`M FORECASTING FOR, BUT AN EARLY
LOOK AT GUIDANCE FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND SEEMS TO INDICATE IT WILL
FEATURE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. WE`LL
SEE. AS FOR THE DAILY SPECIFICS, JUST READ ON:

SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF HERE SO CONTINUED
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. 850 MPH TEMPERATURES RISE TO 11-13C (WARMEST
IN WESTERN HALF), WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S EAST TO
LOW 80S WEST. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP ANY CLOUDS TO A MINIMUM.
AT NIGHT, CLEAR AND CALM SO LOOK FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD, SO HARDLY A BREEZE. 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER DEGREE TO ABOUT 12-14C, SO ADD ABOUT 1-3F
FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FROM SUNDAY -- LOWER 80S PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE.
MONDAY NIGHT, MORE CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH SOUTH OF HERE, SO A BIT OF A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
GETS ESTABLISHED. 850MB TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER DEGREE. WITH WEST
FLOW, THIS SHOULD ALSO HELP WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SO I`D EXPECT MID 80S TO BE A SOLID BET IN THE VALLEYS. THE
EURO RUNS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER, SO HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE
WARMER GFS TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH SOUTH OF HERE, SO THE AREA IS SOLIDLY IN
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES PUSHING 15-16C WHICH
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN SPOTS. ADD IN SOME
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE ADIRONDACKS, AND I THINK PARTS OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COULD MAKE A RUN AT 90F. I DID INCREASE
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES OVER THE BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH WAS
BIASED A BIT COOL DUE TO THE EURO AND CLIMO IN THE MOS. THAT BLEND
GAVE ME 81F FOR BTV. MEX GUIDANCE WAS 83F. I WENT 85F. WE`LL SEE
HOW FUTURE GUIDANCE GOES AND IF THE TREND TO BE WARMER IS NEEDED.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AGAIN CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

THURSDAY...THIS IS WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN. AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THE EURO IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
A SHORTWAVE. AT THIS POINT, BEST COURSE IS TO TAKE A BLEND. HAVE
PAINTED IN CHANCE LEVEL OF POPS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES MAY AGAIN BE VERY WARM IF THE GFS IS RIGHT. OR COOLER
IF THE EURO IS RIGHT. STUCK WITH THE BLEND. WHICH STILL FEATURES
LOTS OF LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACRS OUR
TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING FROM IFR AT SLK TO MVFR AT
MPV/PBG/BTV...AND VFR AT RUT/MSS. THINKING IFR CIGS WL PREVAIL AT
SLK THRU 12Z FRIDAY...BASED ON CRNT OBS AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING
PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE. ALSO...HAVE PLACED IFR TO DEVELOP AT
MSS/MPV BTWN 08-09Z...DUE TO SATURATED LLVLS FROM RECENT RAINFALL
AND LATEST TRENDS OF INCREASING THE RH VALUES IN THE LOWEST COUPLE
HUNDRED FEET. THINKING IFR VIS AT MSS WITH FOG/BR WITH IFR CIGS AT
MPV...AS WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY STRONGER JUST ABOVE THE SFC...HELPING
IN THE PROMOTION OF A LOW STRATUS DECK. THINKING MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT PBG/RUT/BTV WITH SOUTHEAST FLW AND CIGS
BTWN 2500 AND 4500 FEET. SOME LOWERING CIGS WL BE POSSIBLE TWD
SUNRISE AT PBG...ESPECIALLY WITH LLVL EASTERLY FLW COMING OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. CIGS/VIS WL SLOWLY IMPROVE ON FRIDAY...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS BY 15Z AT SLK/MPV AND VFR BY 18Z AT ALL TAF SITES.
THINKING MOST OF THE TAF SITES WL REMAIN DRY THRU THE
PERIOD...MAYBE A SPOT SHOWER WITH VIS AROUND 5SM AT MPV/RUT...WITH
SOME DRIZZLE.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES FROM EASTERN
CANADA WL BUILDING INTO OUR TAF SITES FOR SATURDAY THUR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH LOCALIZED FOG/BR LIKELY AT MPV/SLK/MSS SAT/SUN AND
MONDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-12Z...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS. A DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLW WL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 220548
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
148 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 138 AM EDT FRIDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. LATEST
RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO DIMINISH IN AREAL
COVERAGE. HAVE LOWERED POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...
EXCEPT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LOW THEN CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. NAM AND
GFS DEPICT A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND AND PASSING
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING PEAK HEATING. THEREFORE...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FORECAST
DURING THE AFTN HOURS...TRENDING DRIER BY EVENING. MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVERCAST TRENDS TO PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY BY AFTN FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGHS FRIDAY ARE COOLEST IN SOUTHERN VT AND ESSEX COUNTY NY AND
WARMEST NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WITH DRY WEATHER
FOR SATURDAY. WHILE CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
FOR MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...EASTERLY TRAJECTORIES AND SATURATED
NAM/BTV-4 LOW-LEVEL RH PROGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR MARINE
LAYER/STRATUS IN EASTERN VT. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FROM +9C IN EASTERN
VT TO AROUND +11C ELSEWHERE...LOOKING AT HIGHS ONLY AROUND 70 IN
EASTERN VT TO MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWS LOWS TO RANGE FROM UPPER
40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS
FOR THE TIME. MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY STRONG
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE (AKA: RIDGOSAUROUS). 12Z SUITE OF
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER AND PRIOR
RUNS. NOTED THAT THE 12Z ECMWF TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS FOR THE
SCENARIO ON WEDNESDAY AND IS NOW SHOWING A STRONGER RIDGE INTO MID
WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE FOR THURSDAY, WITH EURO SHOWING A FASTER/MORE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE. THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
FOR BEYOND THE OFFICIAL PERIOD I`M FORECASTING FOR, BUT AN EARLY
LOOK AT GUIDANCE FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND SEEMS TO INDICATE IT WILL
FEATURE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. WE`LL
SEE. AS FOR THE DAILY SPECIFICS, JUST READ ON:

SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF HERE SO CONTINUED
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. 850 MPH TEMPERATURES RISE TO 11-13C (WARMEST
IN WESTERN HALF), WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S EAST TO
LOW 80S WEST. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP ANY CLOUDS TO A MINIMUM.
AT NIGHT, CLEAR AND CALM SO LOOK FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD, SO HARDLY A BREEZE. 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER DEGREE TO ABOUT 12-14C, SO ADD ABOUT 1-3F
FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FROM SUNDAY -- LOWER 80S PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE.
MONDAY NIGHT, MORE CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH SOUTH OF HERE, SO A BIT OF A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
GETS ESTABLISHED. 850MB TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER DEGREE. WITH WEST
FLOW, THIS SHOULD ALSO HELP WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SO I`D EXPECT MID 80S TO BE A SOLID BET IN THE VALLEYS. THE
EURO RUNS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER, SO HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE
WARMER GFS TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH SOUTH OF HERE, SO THE AREA IS SOLIDLY IN
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES PUSHING 15-16C WHICH
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN SPOTS. ADD IN SOME
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE ADIRONDACKS, AND I THINK PARTS OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COULD MAKE A RUN AT 90F. I DID INCREASE
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES OVER THE BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH WAS
BIASED A BIT COOL DUE TO THE EURO AND CLIMO IN THE MOS. THAT BLEND
GAVE ME 81F FOR BTV. MEX GUIDANCE WAS 83F. I WENT 85F. WE`LL SEE
HOW FUTURE GUIDANCE GOES AND IF THE TREND TO BE WARMER IS NEEDED.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AGAIN CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

THURSDAY...THIS IS WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN. AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THE EURO IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
A SHORTWAVE. AT THIS POINT, BEST COURSE IS TO TAKE A BLEND. HAVE
PAINTED IN CHANCE LEVEL OF POPS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES MAY AGAIN BE VERY WARM IF THE GFS IS RIGHT. OR COOLER
IF THE EURO IS RIGHT. STUCK WITH THE BLEND. WHICH STILL FEATURES
LOTS OF LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACRS OUR
TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING FROM IFR AT SLK TO MVFR AT
MPV/PBG/BTV...AND VFR AT RUT/MSS. THINKING IFR CIGS WL PREVAIL AT
SLK THRU 12Z FRIDAY...BASED ON CRNT OBS AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING
PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE. ALSO...HAVE PLACED IFR TO DEVELOP AT
MSS/MPV BTWN 08-09Z...DUE TO SATURATED LLVLS FROM RECENT RAINFALL
AND LATEST TRENDS OF INCREASING THE RH VALUES IN THE LOWEST COUPLE
HUNDRED FEET. THINKING IFR VIS AT MSS WITH FOG/BR WITH IFR CIGS AT
MPV...AS WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY STRONGER JUST ABOVE THE SFC...HELPING
IN THE PROMOTION OF A LOW STRATUS DECK. THINKING MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT PBG/RUT/BTV WITH SOUTHEAST FLW AND CIGS
BTWN 2500 AND 4500 FEET. SOME LOWERING CIGS WL BE POSSIBLE TWD
SUNRISE AT PBG...ESPECIALLY WITH LLVL EASTERLY FLW COMING OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. CIGS/VIS WL SLOWLY IMPROVE ON FRIDAY...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS BY 15Z AT SLK/MPV AND VFR BY 18Z AT ALL TAF SITES.
THINKING MOST OF THE TAF SITES WL REMAIN DRY THRU THE
PERIOD...MAYBE A SPOT SHOWER WITH VIS AROUND 5SM AT MPV/RUT...WITH
SOME DRIZZLE.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES FROM EASTERN
CANADA WL BUILDING INTO OUR TAF SITES FOR SATURDAY THUR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH LOCALIZED FOG/BR LIKELY AT MPV/SLK/MSS SAT/SUN AND
MONDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-12Z...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS. A DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLW WL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU TUESDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 220538
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
138 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 138 AM EDT FRIDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. LATEST
RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO DIMINISH IN AREAL
COVERAGE. HAVE LOWERED POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...
EXCEPT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LOW THEN CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. NAM AND
GFS DEPICT A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND AND PASSING
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING PEAK HEATING. THEREFORE...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FORECAST
DURING THE AFTN HOURS...TRENDING DRIER BY EVENING. MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVERCAST TRENDS TO PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY BY AFTN FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGHS FRIDAY ARE COOLEST IN SOUTHERN VT AND ESSEX COUNTY NY AND
WARMEST NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WITH DRY WEATHER
FOR SATURDAY. WHILE CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
FOR MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...EASTERLY TRAJECTORIES AND SATURATED
NAM/BTV-4 LOW-LEVEL RH PROGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR MARINE
LAYER/STRATUS IN EASTERN VT. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FROM +9C IN EASTERN
VT TO AROUND +11C ELSEWHERE...LOOKING AT HIGHS ONLY AROUND 70 IN
EASTERN VT TO MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWS LOWS TO RANGE FROM UPPER
40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS
FOR THE TIME. MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY STRONG
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE (AKA: RIDGOSAUROUS). 12Z SUITE OF
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER AND PRIOR
RUNS. NOTED THAT THE 12Z ECMWF TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS FOR THE
SCENARIO ON WEDNESDAY AND IS NOW SHOWING A STRONGER RIDGE INTO MID
WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE FOR THURSDAY, WITH EURO SHOWING A FASTER/MORE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE. THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
FOR BEYOND THE OFFICIAL PERIOD I`M FORECASTING FOR, BUT AN EARLY
LOOK AT GUIDANCE FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND SEEMS TO INDICATE IT WILL
FEATURE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. WE`LL
SEE. AS FOR THE DAILY SPECIFICS, JUST READ ON:

SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF HERE SO CONTINUED
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. 850 MPH TEMPERATURES RISE TO 11-13C (WARMEST
IN WESTERN HALF), WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S EAST TO
LOW 80S WEST. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP ANY CLOUDS TO A MINIMUM.
AT NIGHT, CLEAR AND CALM SO LOOK FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD, SO HARDLY A BREEZE. 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER DEGREE TO ABOUT 12-14C, SO ADD ABOUT 1-3F
FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FROM SUNDAY -- LOWER 80S PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE.
MONDAY NIGHT, MORE CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH SOUTH OF HERE, SO A BIT OF A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
GETS ESTABLISHED. 850MB TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER DEGREE. WITH WEST
FLOW, THIS SHOULD ALSO HELP WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SO I`D EXPECT MID 80S TO BE A SOLID BET IN THE VALLEYS. THE
EURO RUNS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER, SO HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE
WARMER GFS TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH SOUTH OF HERE, SO THE AREA IS SOLIDLY IN
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES PUSHING 15-16C WHICH
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN SPOTS. ADD IN SOME
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE ADIRONDACKS, AND I THINK PARTS OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COULD MAKE A RUN AT 90F. I DID INCREASE
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES OVER THE BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH WAS
BIASED A BIT COOL DUE TO THE EURO AND CLIMO IN THE MOS. THAT BLEND
GAVE ME 81F FOR BTV. MEX GUIDANCE WAS 83F. I WENT 85F. WE`LL SEE
HOW FUTURE GUIDANCE GOES AND IF THE TREND TO BE WARMER IS NEEDED.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AGAIN CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

THURSDAY...THIS IS WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN. AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THE EURO IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
A SHORTWAVE. AT THIS POINT, BEST COURSE IS TO TAKE A BLEND. HAVE
PAINTED IN CHANCE LEVEL OF POPS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES MAY AGAIN BE VERY WARM IF THE GFS IS RIGHT. OR COOLER
IF THE EURO IS RIGHT. STUCK WITH THE BLEND. WHICH STILL FEATURES
LOTS OF LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...ESSENTIALLY LOOKING AT VFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND
FOG LINGERING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. AFTER 12Z ANY PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END AND
VISIBILITIES IMPROVE WITH BROKEN CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET. WINDS
WILL HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THEM TONIGHT...BUT AT SPEEDS
GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE AT KRUT
WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR WITH THE FOLLOWING
EXCEPTIONS -- BRIEF MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY.
LOCALIZED IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG (MAINLY AN ISSUE FOR MPV AND SLK).

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 220538
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
138 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 138 AM EDT FRIDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. LATEST
RADAR TRENDS SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO DIMINISH IN AREAL
COVERAGE. HAVE LOWERED POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...
EXCEPT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LOW THEN CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. NAM AND
GFS DEPICT A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND AND PASSING
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING PEAK HEATING. THEREFORE...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FORECAST
DURING THE AFTN HOURS...TRENDING DRIER BY EVENING. MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVERCAST TRENDS TO PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY BY AFTN FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGHS FRIDAY ARE COOLEST IN SOUTHERN VT AND ESSEX COUNTY NY AND
WARMEST NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WITH DRY WEATHER
FOR SATURDAY. WHILE CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
FOR MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...EASTERLY TRAJECTORIES AND SATURATED
NAM/BTV-4 LOW-LEVEL RH PROGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR MARINE
LAYER/STRATUS IN EASTERN VT. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FROM +9C IN EASTERN
VT TO AROUND +11C ELSEWHERE...LOOKING AT HIGHS ONLY AROUND 70 IN
EASTERN VT TO MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWS LOWS TO RANGE FROM UPPER
40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS
FOR THE TIME. MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY STRONG
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE (AKA: RIDGOSAUROUS). 12Z SUITE OF
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER AND PRIOR
RUNS. NOTED THAT THE 12Z ECMWF TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS FOR THE
SCENARIO ON WEDNESDAY AND IS NOW SHOWING A STRONGER RIDGE INTO MID
WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE FOR THURSDAY, WITH EURO SHOWING A FASTER/MORE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE. THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
FOR BEYOND THE OFFICIAL PERIOD I`M FORECASTING FOR, BUT AN EARLY
LOOK AT GUIDANCE FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND SEEMS TO INDICATE IT WILL
FEATURE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. WE`LL
SEE. AS FOR THE DAILY SPECIFICS, JUST READ ON:

SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF HERE SO CONTINUED
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. 850 MPH TEMPERATURES RISE TO 11-13C (WARMEST
IN WESTERN HALF), WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S EAST TO
LOW 80S WEST. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP ANY CLOUDS TO A MINIMUM.
AT NIGHT, CLEAR AND CALM SO LOOK FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD, SO HARDLY A BREEZE. 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER DEGREE TO ABOUT 12-14C, SO ADD ABOUT 1-3F
FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FROM SUNDAY -- LOWER 80S PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE.
MONDAY NIGHT, MORE CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH SOUTH OF HERE, SO A BIT OF A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
GETS ESTABLISHED. 850MB TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER DEGREE. WITH WEST
FLOW, THIS SHOULD ALSO HELP WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SO I`D EXPECT MID 80S TO BE A SOLID BET IN THE VALLEYS. THE
EURO RUNS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER, SO HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE
WARMER GFS TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH SOUTH OF HERE, SO THE AREA IS SOLIDLY IN
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES PUSHING 15-16C WHICH
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN SPOTS. ADD IN SOME
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE ADIRONDACKS, AND I THINK PARTS OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COULD MAKE A RUN AT 90F. I DID INCREASE
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES OVER THE BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH WAS
BIASED A BIT COOL DUE TO THE EURO AND CLIMO IN THE MOS. THAT BLEND
GAVE ME 81F FOR BTV. MEX GUIDANCE WAS 83F. I WENT 85F. WE`LL SEE
HOW FUTURE GUIDANCE GOES AND IF THE TREND TO BE WARMER IS NEEDED.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AGAIN CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

THURSDAY...THIS IS WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN. AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THE EURO IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
A SHORTWAVE. AT THIS POINT, BEST COURSE IS TO TAKE A BLEND. HAVE
PAINTED IN CHANCE LEVEL OF POPS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES MAY AGAIN BE VERY WARM IF THE GFS IS RIGHT. OR COOLER
IF THE EURO IS RIGHT. STUCK WITH THE BLEND. WHICH STILL FEATURES
LOTS OF LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...ESSENTIALLY LOOKING AT VFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND
FOG LINGERING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. AFTER 12Z ANY PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END AND
VISIBILITIES IMPROVE WITH BROKEN CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET. WINDS
WILL HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THEM TONIGHT...BUT AT SPEEDS
GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE AT KRUT
WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR WITH THE FOLLOWING
EXCEPTIONS -- BRIEF MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY.
LOCALIZED IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG (MAINLY AN ISSUE FOR MPV AND SLK).

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 220217
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1017 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1017 PM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN OVERALL GOOD SHAPE
WITH SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MOST PREVALENT
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SC VT.
FORECAST AREA LIES BENEATH LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR/DIFFLUENT ZONE
BETWEEN WEAKENING UPPER LOW ACROSS SRN ONTARIO INTO CENTRAL
NY...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC.
THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. IF YOU BELIEVE THE RAP OUTPUT
LITERAL...ACTIVITY MAY FILL IN QUITE SOLIDLY ACROSS VT OUTSIDE
NERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO QUITE A SOAKER.
INDEED...3-HRLY ESTIMATES ALONG THE SHEAR ZONE HAVE RANGED FROM
0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES WITH SOME PORTIONS OF ADDISON/NRN WINDSOR
COUNTIES HAVING PICKED UP IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH. REST OF FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH CLOUDY SKIES...PATCHY BR/FG HERE AND THERE
AND LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LOW THEN CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. NAM AND
GFS DEPICT A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND AND PASSING
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING PEAK HEATING. THEREFORE...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FORECAST
DURING THE AFTN HOURS...TRENDING DRIER BY EVENING. MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVERCAST TRENDS TO PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY BY AFTN FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGHS FRIDAY ARE COOLEST IN SOUTHERN VT AND ESSEX COUNTY NY AND
WARMEST NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WITH DRY WEATHER
FOR SATURDAY. WHILE CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
FOR MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...EASTERLY TRAJECTORIES AND SATURATED
NAM/BTV-4 LOW-LEVEL RH PROGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR MARINE
LAYER/STRATUS IN EASTERN VT. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FROM +9C IN EASTERN
VT TO AROUND +11C ELSEWHERE...LOOKING AT HIGHS ONLY AROUND 70 IN
EASTERN VT TO MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWS LOWS TO RANGE FROM UPPER
40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS
FOR THE TIME. MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY STRONG
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE (AKA: RIDGOSAUROUS). 12Z SUITE OF
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER AND PRIOR
RUNS. NOTED THAT THE 12Z ECMWF TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS FOR THE
SCENARIO ON WEDNESDAY AND IS NOW SHOWING A STRONGER RIDGE INTO MID
WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE FOR THURSDAY, WITH EURO SHOWING A FASTER/MORE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE. THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
FOR BEYOND THE OFFICIAL PERIOD I`M FORECASTING FOR, BUT AN EARLY
LOOK AT GUIDANCE FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND SEEMS TO INDICATE IT WILL
FEATURE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. WE`LL
SEE. AS FOR THE DAILY SPECIFICS, JUST READ ON:

SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF HERE SO CONTINUED
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. 850 MPH TEMPERATURES RISE TO 11-13C (WARMEST
IN WESTERN HALF), WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S EAST TO
LOW 80S WEST. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP ANY CLOUDS TO A MINIMUM.
AT NIGHT, CLEAR AND CALM SO LOOK FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD, SO HARDLY A BREEZE. 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER DEGREE TO ABOUT 12-14C, SO ADD ABOUT 1-3F
FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FROM SUNDAY -- LOWER 80S PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE.
MONDAY NIGHT, MORE CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH SOUTH OF HERE, SO A BIT OF A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
GETS ESTABLISHED. 850MB TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER DEGREE. WITH WEST
FLOW, THIS SHOULD ALSO HELP WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SO I`D EXPECT MID 80S TO BE A SOLID BET IN THE VALLEYS. THE
EURO RUNS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER, SO HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE
WARMER GFS TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH SOUTH OF HERE, SO THE AREA IS SOLIDLY IN
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES PUSHING 15-16C WHICH
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN SPOTS. ADD IN SOME
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE ADIRONDACKS, AND I THINK PARTS OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COULD MAKE A RUN AT 90F. I DID INCREASE
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES OVER THE BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH WAS
BIASED A BIT COOL DUE TO THE EURO AND CLIMO IN THE MOS. THAT BLEND
GAVE ME 81F FOR BTV. MEX GUIDANCE WAS 83F. I WENT 85F. WE`LL SEE
HOW FUTURE GUIDANCE GOES AND IF THE TREND TO BE WARMER IS NEEDED.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AGAIN CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

THURSDAY...THIS IS WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN. AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THE EURO IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
A SHORTWAVE. AT THIS POINT, BEST COURSE IS TO TAKE A BLEND. HAVE
PAINTED IN CHANCE LEVEL OF POPS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES MAY AGAIN BE VERY WARM IF THE GFS IS RIGHT. OR COOLER
IF THE EURO IS RIGHT. STUCK WITH THE BLEND. WHICH STILL FEATURES
LOTS OF LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...ESSENTIALLY LOOKING AT VFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND
FOG LINGERING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. AFTER 12Z ANY PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END AND
VISIBILITIES IMPROVE WITH BROKEN CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET. WINDS
WILL HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THEM TONIGHT...BUT AT SPEEDS
GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE AT KRUT
WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR WITH THE FOLLOWING
EXCEPTIONS -- BRIEF MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY.
LOCALIZED IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG (MAINLY AN ISSUE FOR MPV AND SLK).

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH






000
FXUS61 KALY 220125
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
925 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST TOMORROW WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
AND COOL TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT ALL LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE FROM QUEBEC INTO THE NORTHEAST. IT WILL BRING INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

AT 920PM EDT AREAS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FCST AREA...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
HAS PROVIDED THE LIFT FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE
BEEN ONGOING THIS EVENING

STORM CLUSTERS HAVE TRAINED OF FAVORED THE SOUTHERN MOHAWK VLY AND
SVRL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ONGOING. OTHER AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SO FAR THIS EVENING ARE NORTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY...AND AREAS FROM THE GREAT SACANDAGA LAKE TO LAKE GEORGE.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED...WHICH IS HELPING KEEP THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOW.
THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS ONLY UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE
CURRENTLY PRESENT...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES IN THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THERE IS MORE SFC BASED CAPE ACROSS
CENTRAL NY AND INTO NE PA...AND THESE ARE THE LOCATIONS WHERE A
HANDFUL OF SEVERE REPORTS HAVE OCCURRED TODAY. WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WE SEE NO REASON WHY CAPE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WANE...AND KEEP THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM OUR AREA.
THUNDER WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR...AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT.

ALSO...WITH PWATS ABOVE NORMAL /AROUND 1.63 INCHES FROM THIS
MORNINGS KALY SOUNDING/...DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S...AND HIGH FZL
LEVELS /FZL LEVELS AROUND 12000 FT/....THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...AS WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL DOMINATE. SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PRODUCED ONE TO TWO INCHES
OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...AND A FEW FLOOD ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STILL ONGOING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY...THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL MINOR
FLOOD CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE...AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES EASTWARD.
LUCKILY...THERE IS ENOUGH FLOW TO KEEP THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING ALONG...AND PREVENT TOO MUCH FROM FALLING OVER ANY ONE
PARTICULAR LOCATION. STILL...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEE OUR
HYDRO DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

POPS TAPER DOWN TO CHANCE FOR LATE TONIGHT /BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO/ AS
THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE BEST
FORCING STARTS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT STILL LOOKS
TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MIN TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO SHIFT OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
FOR THE THREAT FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESP DURING DAYTIME
HEATING. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON FRIDAY...AS THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL BE STARTING TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IT STILL LOOKS TO STAY FAIRLY CLOUDY WITH
THE UPPER LOW NEARBY...SO TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN. MAX TEMPS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A LINGERING SPRINKLE OR SHOWER
CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...OTHERWISE IT
LOOKS TO BE DRY. FINALLY...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL START TO
OCCUR...ESP BY SAT MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AS DRIER AIR
STARTS TO WORK IN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. MIN TEMPS FRI NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 50S...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 70S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE
EXPECTED...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO FALL EASILY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER OVER THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OFFSHORE. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. HIGHS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST BEGINS TO APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY BUT THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING SHOULD STILL BE IN PLACE.
SO...JUST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRIMARY 500HPA SHORT WV IS MOVING INTO FCA W/ITS ASSOC WK SFC TROF...AND
SCT -SHRA/TSTMS ARE EVOLVING INTO MORE WIDESPREAD -SHRA...AND EMBEDDED
TSTMS AS THEY ARE MVNG INTO AREAS OF ELEVATED CAPE. CIGS AND OR
VSBYS WILL BE MVFR DURING THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS IFR IN TSTMS
THIS EVENING...BCMG IFR OVERNIGHT WITH LOWERING CIGS AND AREAS OF
FOG FORMING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING BCMG NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT.

FRI THE SFC TROF WILL LINGER NR WESTERN PERIPHERY OF FCA...AS SVRL
500HPA SHORT WVS DROP SE IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING 500HPA CUTOFF.
SCT-BKN -SHRA WILL DIM THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
LLVLS FROM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH UNDER 500HPA RIDGE OVER
QB. WINDS WILL BCMG LIGHT NE. CIGS/VSBY WILL BE MVFR MUCH OF THE
DAY...IMPVG TO VFR TWRDS EVNG.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL
KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM. RH VALUES WILL BE NEAR
100 PERCENT IN MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT. WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
AROUND TOMORROW...RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 70 PERCENT THROUGH
THE ENTIRE DAY...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THANKS TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THESE HEAVIEST OF THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OF UP TO TWO INCHES
PER HOUR.

SOME AREAS...GENERALLY FROM AROUND AMSTERDAM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SACANDAGA LAKE AND INTO WESTERN SARATOGA COUNTY...SAW TWO TO FOUR
INCHES OF RAIN LAST NIGHT. SOME PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY SAW AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE
LATEST ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...GROUND
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN RATHER DRY...DUE TO A LACK OF RECENT
RAINFALL. AS A RESULT...MOST AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE SOME
RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IF HEAVY RAIN OCCURS OVER THOSE AREAS THAT SAW
RAINFALL LAST NIGHT OR IF RAINFALL REPEATEDLY MOVES OVER THE SAME
LOCATION THROUGH INTO EVENING...THEN SOME MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR. AN ISOLATED
FLASH FLOOD CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT...ALTHOUGH ANY POSSIBLE
FLOOD ISSUES WOULD LIKELY BE MORE OF THE POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN TYPE
CONCERNS.

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL END TONIGHT...AS THE BEST
FORCING STARTS TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA. EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS INTO TOMORROW...NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON MAIN STREAM RIVERS DUE TO THE
RAINFALL...NO FLOODING OF LARGER RIVERS IS EXPECTED. WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...RIVER LEVELS WILL
RECEDE AND/OR HOLD STEADY INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...IRL/SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 220125
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
925 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST TOMORROW WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
AND COOL TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT ALL LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE FROM QUEBEC INTO THE NORTHEAST. IT WILL BRING INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

AT 920PM EDT AREAS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FCST AREA...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
HAS PROVIDED THE LIFT FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE
BEEN ONGOING THIS EVENING

STORM CLUSTERS HAVE TRAINED OF FAVORED THE SOUTHERN MOHAWK VLY AND
SVRL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ONGOING. OTHER AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SO FAR THIS EVENING ARE NORTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY...AND AREAS FROM THE GREAT SACANDAGA LAKE TO LAKE GEORGE.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED...WHICH IS HELPING KEEP THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOW.
THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS ONLY UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE
CURRENTLY PRESENT...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES IN THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THERE IS MORE SFC BASED CAPE ACROSS
CENTRAL NY AND INTO NE PA...AND THESE ARE THE LOCATIONS WHERE A
HANDFUL OF SEVERE REPORTS HAVE OCCURRED TODAY. WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WE SEE NO REASON WHY CAPE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WANE...AND KEEP THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM OUR AREA.
THUNDER WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR...AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT.

ALSO...WITH PWATS ABOVE NORMAL /AROUND 1.63 INCHES FROM THIS
MORNINGS KALY SOUNDING/...DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S...AND HIGH FZL
LEVELS /FZL LEVELS AROUND 12000 FT/....THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...AS WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL DOMINATE. SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PRODUCED ONE TO TWO INCHES
OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...AND A FEW FLOOD ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STILL ONGOING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY...THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL MINOR
FLOOD CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE...AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES EASTWARD.
LUCKILY...THERE IS ENOUGH FLOW TO KEEP THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING ALONG...AND PREVENT TOO MUCH FROM FALLING OVER ANY ONE
PARTICULAR LOCATION. STILL...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEE OUR
HYDRO DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

POPS TAPER DOWN TO CHANCE FOR LATE TONIGHT /BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO/ AS
THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE BEST
FORCING STARTS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT STILL LOOKS
TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MIN TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO SHIFT OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
FOR THE THREAT FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESP DURING DAYTIME
HEATING. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON FRIDAY...AS THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL BE STARTING TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IT STILL LOOKS TO STAY FAIRLY CLOUDY WITH
THE UPPER LOW NEARBY...SO TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN. MAX TEMPS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A LINGERING SPRINKLE OR SHOWER
CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...OTHERWISE IT
LOOKS TO BE DRY. FINALLY...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL START TO
OCCUR...ESP BY SAT MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AS DRIER AIR
STARTS TO WORK IN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. MIN TEMPS FRI NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 50S...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 70S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE
EXPECTED...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO FALL EASILY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER OVER THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OFFSHORE. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. HIGHS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST BEGINS TO APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY BUT THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING SHOULD STILL BE IN PLACE.
SO...JUST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRIMARY 500HPA SHORT WV IS MOVING INTO FCA W/ITS ASSOC WK SFC TROF...AND
SCT -SHRA/TSTMS ARE EVOLVING INTO MORE WIDESPREAD -SHRA...AND EMBEDDED
TSTMS AS THEY ARE MVNG INTO AREAS OF ELEVATED CAPE. CIGS AND OR
VSBYS WILL BE MVFR DURING THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS IFR IN TSTMS
THIS EVENING...BCMG IFR OVERNIGHT WITH LOWERING CIGS AND AREAS OF
FOG FORMING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING BCMG NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT.

FRI THE SFC TROF WILL LINGER NR WESTERN PERIPHERY OF FCA...AS SVRL
500HPA SHORT WVS DROP SE IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING 500HPA CUTOFF.
SCT-BKN -SHRA WILL DIM THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
LLVLS FROM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH UNDER 500HPA RIDGE OVER
QB. WINDS WILL BCMG LIGHT NE. CIGS/VSBY WILL BE MVFR MUCH OF THE
DAY...IMPVG TO VFR TWRDS EVNG.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL
KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM. RH VALUES WILL BE NEAR
100 PERCENT IN MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT. WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
AROUND TOMORROW...RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 70 PERCENT THROUGH
THE ENTIRE DAY...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THANKS TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THESE HEAVIEST OF THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OF UP TO TWO INCHES
PER HOUR.

SOME AREAS...GENERALLY FROM AROUND AMSTERDAM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SACANDAGA LAKE AND INTO WESTERN SARATOGA COUNTY...SAW TWO TO FOUR
INCHES OF RAIN LAST NIGHT. SOME PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY SAW AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE
LATEST ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...GROUND
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN RATHER DRY...DUE TO A LACK OF RECENT
RAINFALL. AS A RESULT...MOST AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE SOME
RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IF HEAVY RAIN OCCURS OVER THOSE AREAS THAT SAW
RAINFALL LAST NIGHT OR IF RAINFALL REPEATEDLY MOVES OVER THE SAME
LOCATION THROUGH INTO EVENING...THEN SOME MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR. AN ISOLATED
FLASH FLOOD CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT...ALTHOUGH ANY POSSIBLE
FLOOD ISSUES WOULD LIKELY BE MORE OF THE POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN TYPE
CONCERNS.

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL END TONIGHT...AS THE BEST
FORCING STARTS TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA. EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS INTO TOMORROW...NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON MAIN STREAM RIVERS DUE TO THE
RAINFALL...NO FLOODING OF LARGER RIVERS IS EXPECTED. WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...RIVER LEVELS WILL
RECEDE AND/OR HOLD STEADY INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...IRL/SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 220125
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
925 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST TOMORROW WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
AND COOL TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT ALL LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE FROM QUEBEC INTO THE NORTHEAST. IT WILL BRING INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

AT 920PM EDT AREAS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FCST AREA...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
HAS PROVIDED THE LIFT FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE
BEEN ONGOING THIS EVENING

STORM CLUSTERS HAVE TRAINED OF FAVORED THE SOUTHERN MOHAWK VLY AND
SVRL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ONGOING. OTHER AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SO FAR THIS EVENING ARE NORTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY...AND AREAS FROM THE GREAT SACANDAGA LAKE TO LAKE GEORGE.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED...WHICH IS HELPING KEEP THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOW.
THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS ONLY UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE
CURRENTLY PRESENT...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES IN THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THERE IS MORE SFC BASED CAPE ACROSS
CENTRAL NY AND INTO NE PA...AND THESE ARE THE LOCATIONS WHERE A
HANDFUL OF SEVERE REPORTS HAVE OCCURRED TODAY. WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WE SEE NO REASON WHY CAPE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WANE...AND KEEP THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM OUR AREA.
THUNDER WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR...AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT.

ALSO...WITH PWATS ABOVE NORMAL /AROUND 1.63 INCHES FROM THIS
MORNINGS KALY SOUNDING/...DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S...AND HIGH FZL
LEVELS /FZL LEVELS AROUND 12000 FT/....THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...AS WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL DOMINATE. SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PRODUCED ONE TO TWO INCHES
OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...AND A FEW FLOOD ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STILL ONGOING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY...THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL MINOR
FLOOD CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE...AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES EASTWARD.
LUCKILY...THERE IS ENOUGH FLOW TO KEEP THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING ALONG...AND PREVENT TOO MUCH FROM FALLING OVER ANY ONE
PARTICULAR LOCATION. STILL...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEE OUR
HYDRO DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

POPS TAPER DOWN TO CHANCE FOR LATE TONIGHT /BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO/ AS
THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE BEST
FORCING STARTS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT STILL LOOKS
TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MIN TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO SHIFT OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
FOR THE THREAT FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESP DURING DAYTIME
HEATING. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON FRIDAY...AS THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL BE STARTING TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IT STILL LOOKS TO STAY FAIRLY CLOUDY WITH
THE UPPER LOW NEARBY...SO TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN. MAX TEMPS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A LINGERING SPRINKLE OR SHOWER
CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...OTHERWISE IT
LOOKS TO BE DRY. FINALLY...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL START TO
OCCUR...ESP BY SAT MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AS DRIER AIR
STARTS TO WORK IN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. MIN TEMPS FRI NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 50S...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 70S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE
EXPECTED...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO FALL EASILY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER OVER THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OFFSHORE. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. HIGHS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST BEGINS TO APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY BUT THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING SHOULD STILL BE IN PLACE.
SO...JUST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRIMARY 500HPA SHORT WV IS MOVING INTO FCA W/ITS ASSOC WK SFC TROF...AND
SCT -SHRA/TSTMS ARE EVOLVING INTO MORE WIDESPREAD -SHRA...AND EMBEDDED
TSTMS AS THEY ARE MVNG INTO AREAS OF ELEVATED CAPE. CIGS AND OR
VSBYS WILL BE MVFR DURING THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS IFR IN TSTMS
THIS EVENING...BCMG IFR OVERNIGHT WITH LOWERING CIGS AND AREAS OF
FOG FORMING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING BCMG NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT.

FRI THE SFC TROF WILL LINGER NR WESTERN PERIPHERY OF FCA...AS SVRL
500HPA SHORT WVS DROP SE IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING 500HPA CUTOFF.
SCT-BKN -SHRA WILL DIM THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
LLVLS FROM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH UNDER 500HPA RIDGE OVER
QB. WINDS WILL BCMG LIGHT NE. CIGS/VSBY WILL BE MVFR MUCH OF THE
DAY...IMPVG TO VFR TWRDS EVNG.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL
KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM. RH VALUES WILL BE NEAR
100 PERCENT IN MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT. WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
AROUND TOMORROW...RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 70 PERCENT THROUGH
THE ENTIRE DAY...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THANKS TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THESE HEAVIEST OF THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OF UP TO TWO INCHES
PER HOUR.

SOME AREAS...GENERALLY FROM AROUND AMSTERDAM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SACANDAGA LAKE AND INTO WESTERN SARATOGA COUNTY...SAW TWO TO FOUR
INCHES OF RAIN LAST NIGHT. SOME PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY SAW AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE
LATEST ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...GROUND
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN RATHER DRY...DUE TO A LACK OF RECENT
RAINFALL. AS A RESULT...MOST AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE SOME
RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IF HEAVY RAIN OCCURS OVER THOSE AREAS THAT SAW
RAINFALL LAST NIGHT OR IF RAINFALL REPEATEDLY MOVES OVER THE SAME
LOCATION THROUGH INTO EVENING...THEN SOME MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR. AN ISOLATED
FLASH FLOOD CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT...ALTHOUGH ANY POSSIBLE
FLOOD ISSUES WOULD LIKELY BE MORE OF THE POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN TYPE
CONCERNS.

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL END TONIGHT...AS THE BEST
FORCING STARTS TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA. EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS INTO TOMORROW...NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON MAIN STREAM RIVERS DUE TO THE
RAINFALL...NO FLOODING OF LARGER RIVERS IS EXPECTED. WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...RIVER LEVELS WILL
RECEDE AND/OR HOLD STEADY INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...IRL/SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 220125
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
925 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST TOMORROW WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
AND COOL TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT ALL LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE FROM QUEBEC INTO THE NORTHEAST. IT WILL BRING INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

AT 920PM EDT AREAS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FCST AREA...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
HAS PROVIDED THE LIFT FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE
BEEN ONGOING THIS EVENING

STORM CLUSTERS HAVE TRAINED OF FAVORED THE SOUTHERN MOHAWK VLY AND
SVRL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ONGOING. OTHER AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SO FAR THIS EVENING ARE NORTHERN HERKIMER
COUNTY...AND AREAS FROM THE GREAT SACANDAGA LAKE TO LAKE GEORGE.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED...WHICH IS HELPING KEEP THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOW.
THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS ONLY UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE
CURRENTLY PRESENT...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES IN THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THERE IS MORE SFC BASED CAPE ACROSS
CENTRAL NY AND INTO NE PA...AND THESE ARE THE LOCATIONS WHERE A
HANDFUL OF SEVERE REPORTS HAVE OCCURRED TODAY. WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WE SEE NO REASON WHY CAPE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WANE...AND KEEP THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM OUR AREA.
THUNDER WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR...AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT.

ALSO...WITH PWATS ABOVE NORMAL /AROUND 1.63 INCHES FROM THIS
MORNINGS KALY SOUNDING/...DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S...AND HIGH FZL
LEVELS /FZL LEVELS AROUND 12000 FT/....THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...AS WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL DOMINATE. SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PRODUCED ONE TO TWO INCHES
OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...AND A FEW FLOOD ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STILL ONGOING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY...THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL MINOR
FLOOD CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE...AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES EASTWARD.
LUCKILY...THERE IS ENOUGH FLOW TO KEEP THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING ALONG...AND PREVENT TOO MUCH FROM FALLING OVER ANY ONE
PARTICULAR LOCATION. STILL...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEE OUR
HYDRO DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

POPS TAPER DOWN TO CHANCE FOR LATE TONIGHT /BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO/ AS
THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE BEST
FORCING STARTS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT STILL LOOKS
TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MIN TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO SHIFT OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
FOR THE THREAT FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESP DURING DAYTIME
HEATING. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON FRIDAY...AS THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL BE STARTING TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IT STILL LOOKS TO STAY FAIRLY CLOUDY WITH
THE UPPER LOW NEARBY...SO TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN. MAX TEMPS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A LINGERING SPRINKLE OR SHOWER
CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...OTHERWISE IT
LOOKS TO BE DRY. FINALLY...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL START TO
OCCUR...ESP BY SAT MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AS DRIER AIR
STARTS TO WORK IN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. MIN TEMPS FRI NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 50S...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 70S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE
EXPECTED...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO FALL EASILY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER OVER THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OFFSHORE. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. HIGHS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST BEGINS TO APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY BUT THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING SHOULD STILL BE IN PLACE.
SO...JUST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRIMARY 500HPA SHORT WV IS MOVING INTO FCA W/ITS ASSOC WK SFC TROF...AND
SCT -SHRA/TSTMS ARE EVOLVING INTO MORE WIDESPREAD -SHRA...AND EMBEDDED
TSTMS AS THEY ARE MVNG INTO AREAS OF ELEVATED CAPE. CIGS AND OR
VSBYS WILL BE MVFR DURING THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS IFR IN TSTMS
THIS EVENING...BCMG IFR OVERNIGHT WITH LOWERING CIGS AND AREAS OF
FOG FORMING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING BCMG NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT.

FRI THE SFC TROF WILL LINGER NR WESTERN PERIPHERY OF FCA...AS SVRL
500HPA SHORT WVS DROP SE IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING 500HPA CUTOFF.
SCT-BKN -SHRA WILL DIM THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
LLVLS FROM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH UNDER 500HPA RIDGE OVER
QB. WINDS WILL BCMG LIGHT NE. CIGS/VSBY WILL BE MVFR MUCH OF THE
DAY...IMPVG TO VFR TWRDS EVNG.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL
KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM. RH VALUES WILL BE NEAR
100 PERCENT IN MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT. WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
AROUND TOMORROW...RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 70 PERCENT THROUGH
THE ENTIRE DAY...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THANKS TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THESE HEAVIEST OF THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OF UP TO TWO INCHES
PER HOUR.

SOME AREAS...GENERALLY FROM AROUND AMSTERDAM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SACANDAGA LAKE AND INTO WESTERN SARATOGA COUNTY...SAW TWO TO FOUR
INCHES OF RAIN LAST NIGHT. SOME PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY SAW AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE
LATEST ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...GROUND
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN RATHER DRY...DUE TO A LACK OF RECENT
RAINFALL. AS A RESULT...MOST AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE SOME
RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IF HEAVY RAIN OCCURS OVER THOSE AREAS THAT SAW
RAINFALL LAST NIGHT OR IF RAINFALL REPEATEDLY MOVES OVER THE SAME
LOCATION THROUGH INTO EVENING...THEN SOME MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR. AN ISOLATED
FLASH FLOOD CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT...ALTHOUGH ANY POSSIBLE
FLOOD ISSUES WOULD LIKELY BE MORE OF THE POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN TYPE
CONCERNS.

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL END TONIGHT...AS THE BEST
FORCING STARTS TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA. EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS INTO TOMORROW...NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON MAIN STREAM RIVERS DUE TO THE
RAINFALL...NO FLOODING OF LARGER RIVERS IS EXPECTED. WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...RIVER LEVELS WILL
RECEDE AND/OR HOLD STEADY INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...IRL/SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KBTV 212339
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
739 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 728 PM EDT THURSDAY...MODEST UPDATE AS OF EARLY
EVENING...PRIMARILY TO RAISE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH/WEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. LATEST HI-RES/CAM MODELS SHOW SHOWERY
ACTIVITY CONTINUING AND/OR BLOSSOMING ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NY INTO
CENTRAL/SRN VERMONT OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL SHEAR ZONE AND
DIFFLUENCE SLOWLY PIVOT ACROSS OUR AREA. AS ALLUDED TO
EARLIER...LOWER POPS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST ACROSS NC/NE VT BUT
STILL SOME SCT ACTIVITY HERE AS WELL (CASE IN PT SHOWERS ACROSS
CALEDONIA CTY CURRENTLY). RAINFALL RATES IN GENERAL COMING DOWN
AND WHILE SOME AREAS WILL STILL SEE A GOOD SOAKER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH LOSS OR LACK OF INSTABILITY FEEL ANY
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON
TRACK...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT NEAR SEASONAL LATE SUMMER NORMS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT
EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO...ASSOCIATED WITH A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
EASTWARD...PASSING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

REGIONAL RADAR THIS AFTN DEPICTS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...WITH ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL NY. UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH LAPS CAPES
AROUND 2000 J/KG. EXPECT THESE TO GENERALLY PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH A CONTINUING THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS INTO SOUTHERN VT.
I`VE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR THIS GENERAL AREA THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. FORECAST QPF GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH TAPERING SHARPLY WITH
NORTHEAST EXTENT.

LATER TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT...RAIN COVERAGE THEN BECOMES MORE
NEBULOUS/SPOTTY. DECREASING TREND TO POPS OVERNIGHT TO CHANCE
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. OVERCAST
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY AREAS OF MIST OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS. FELT BOTH
12Z MAV AND MET MOS WERE BOTH TOO COLD WITH LOWS GIVEN CLOUD
COVER...OPTING TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LOW THEN CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. NAM AND
GFS DEPICT A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND AND PASSING
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING PEAK HEATING. THEREFORE...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FORECAST
DURING THE AFTN HOURS...TRENDING DRIER BY EVENING. MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVERCAST TRENDS TO PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY BY AFTN FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGHS FRIDAY ARE COOLEST IN SOUTHERN VT AND ESSEX COUNTY NY AND
WARMEST NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WITH DRY WEATHER
FOR SATURDAY. WHILE CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
FOR MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...EASTERLY TRAJECTORIES AND SATURATED
NAM/BTV-4 LOW-LEVEL RH PROGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR MARINE
LAYER/STRATUS IN EASTERN VT. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FROM +9C IN EASTERN
VT TO AROUND +11C ELSEWHERE...LOOKING AT HIGHS ONLY AROUND 70 IN
EASTERN VT TO MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWS LOWS TO RANGE FROM UPPER
40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS
FOR THE TIME. MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY STRONG
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE (AKA: RIDGOSAUROUS). 12Z SUITE OF
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER AND PRIOR
RUNS. NOTED THAT THE 12Z ECMWF TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS FOR THE
SCENARIO ON WEDNESDAY AND IS NOW SHOWING A STRONGER RIDGE INTO MID
WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE FOR THURSDAY, WITH EURO SHOWING A FASTER/MORE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE. THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
FOR BEYOND THE OFFICIAL PERIOD I`M FORECASTING FOR, BUT AN EARLY
LOOK AT GUIDANCE FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND SEEMS TO INDICATE IT WILL
FEATURE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. WE`LL
SEE. AS FOR THE DAILY SPECIFICS, JUST READ ON:

SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF HERE SO CONTINUED
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. 850 MPH TEMPERATURES RISE TO 11-13C (WARMEST
IN WESTERN HALF), WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S EAST TO
LOW 80S WEST. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP ANY CLOUDS TO A MINIMUM.
AT NIGHT, CLEAR AND CALM SO LOOK FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD, SO HARDLY A BREEZE. 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER DEGREE TO ABOUT 12-14C, SO ADD ABOUT 1-3F
FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FROM SUNDAY -- LOWER 80S PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE.
MONDAY NIGHT, MORE CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH SOUTH OF HERE, SO A BIT OF A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
GETS ESTABLISHED. 850MB TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER DEGREE. WITH WEST
FLOW, THIS SHOULD ALSO HELP WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SO I`D EXPECT MID 80S TO BE A SOLID BET IN THE VALLEYS. THE
EURO RUNS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER, SO HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE
WARMER GFS TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH SOUTH OF HERE, SO THE AREA IS SOLIDLY IN
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES PUSHING 15-16C WHICH
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN SPOTS. ADD IN SOME
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE ADIRONDACKS, AND I THINK PARTS OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COULD MAKE A RUN AT 90F. I DID INCREASE
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES OVER THE BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH WAS
BIASED A BIT COOL DUE TO THE EURO AND CLIMO IN THE MOS. THAT BLEND
GAVE ME 81F FOR BTV. MEX GUIDANCE WAS 83F. I WENT 85F. WE`LL SEE
HOW FUTURE GUIDANCE GOES AND IF THE TREND TO BE WARMER IS NEEDED.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AGAIN CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

THURSDAY...THIS IS WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN. AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THE EURO IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
A SHORTWAVE. AT THIS POINT, BEST COURSE IS TO TAKE A BLEND. HAVE
PAINTED IN CHANCE LEVEL OF POPS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES MAY AGAIN BE VERY WARM IF THE GFS IS RIGHT. OR COOLER
IF THE EURO IS RIGHT. STUCK WITH THE BLEND. WHICH STILL FEATURES
LOTS OF LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...ESSENTIALLY LOOKING AT VFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND
FOG LINGERING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. AFTER 12Z ANY PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END AND
VISIBILITIES IMPROVE WITH BROKEN CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET. WINDS
WILL HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THEM TONIGHT...BUT AT SPEEDS
GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE AT KRUT
WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR WITH THE FOLLOWING
EXCEPTIONS -- BRIEF MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY.
LOCALIZED IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG (MAINLY AN ISSUE FOR MPV AND SLK).

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...JMG/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 212339
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
739 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 728 PM EDT THURSDAY...MODEST UPDATE AS OF EARLY
EVENING...PRIMARILY TO RAISE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH/WEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. LATEST HI-RES/CAM MODELS SHOW SHOWERY
ACTIVITY CONTINUING AND/OR BLOSSOMING ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NY INTO
CENTRAL/SRN VERMONT OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL SHEAR ZONE AND
DIFFLUENCE SLOWLY PIVOT ACROSS OUR AREA. AS ALLUDED TO
EARLIER...LOWER POPS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST ACROSS NC/NE VT BUT
STILL SOME SCT ACTIVITY HERE AS WELL (CASE IN PT SHOWERS ACROSS
CALEDONIA CTY CURRENTLY). RAINFALL RATES IN GENERAL COMING DOWN
AND WHILE SOME AREAS WILL STILL SEE A GOOD SOAKER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH LOSS OR LACK OF INSTABILITY FEEL ANY
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON
TRACK...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT NEAR SEASONAL LATE SUMMER NORMS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT
EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO...ASSOCIATED WITH A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
EASTWARD...PASSING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

REGIONAL RADAR THIS AFTN DEPICTS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...WITH ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL NY. UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH LAPS CAPES
AROUND 2000 J/KG. EXPECT THESE TO GENERALLY PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH A CONTINUING THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS INTO SOUTHERN VT.
I`VE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR THIS GENERAL AREA THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. FORECAST QPF GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH TAPERING SHARPLY WITH
NORTHEAST EXTENT.

LATER TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT...RAIN COVERAGE THEN BECOMES MORE
NEBULOUS/SPOTTY. DECREASING TREND TO POPS OVERNIGHT TO CHANCE
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. OVERCAST
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY AREAS OF MIST OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS. FELT BOTH
12Z MAV AND MET MOS WERE BOTH TOO COLD WITH LOWS GIVEN CLOUD
COVER...OPTING TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LOW THEN CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. NAM AND
GFS DEPICT A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND AND PASSING
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING PEAK HEATING. THEREFORE...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FORECAST
DURING THE AFTN HOURS...TRENDING DRIER BY EVENING. MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVERCAST TRENDS TO PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY BY AFTN FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGHS FRIDAY ARE COOLEST IN SOUTHERN VT AND ESSEX COUNTY NY AND
WARMEST NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WITH DRY WEATHER
FOR SATURDAY. WHILE CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
FOR MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...EASTERLY TRAJECTORIES AND SATURATED
NAM/BTV-4 LOW-LEVEL RH PROGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR MARINE
LAYER/STRATUS IN EASTERN VT. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FROM +9C IN EASTERN
VT TO AROUND +11C ELSEWHERE...LOOKING AT HIGHS ONLY AROUND 70 IN
EASTERN VT TO MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWS LOWS TO RANGE FROM UPPER
40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS
FOR THE TIME. MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY STRONG
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE (AKA: RIDGOSAUROUS). 12Z SUITE OF
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER AND PRIOR
RUNS. NOTED THAT THE 12Z ECMWF TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS FOR THE
SCENARIO ON WEDNESDAY AND IS NOW SHOWING A STRONGER RIDGE INTO MID
WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE FOR THURSDAY, WITH EURO SHOWING A FASTER/MORE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE. THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
FOR BEYOND THE OFFICIAL PERIOD I`M FORECASTING FOR, BUT AN EARLY
LOOK AT GUIDANCE FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND SEEMS TO INDICATE IT WILL
FEATURE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. WE`LL
SEE. AS FOR THE DAILY SPECIFICS, JUST READ ON:

SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF HERE SO CONTINUED
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. 850 MPH TEMPERATURES RISE TO 11-13C (WARMEST
IN WESTERN HALF), WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S EAST TO
LOW 80S WEST. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP ANY CLOUDS TO A MINIMUM.
AT NIGHT, CLEAR AND CALM SO LOOK FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD, SO HARDLY A BREEZE. 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER DEGREE TO ABOUT 12-14C, SO ADD ABOUT 1-3F
FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FROM SUNDAY -- LOWER 80S PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE.
MONDAY NIGHT, MORE CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH SOUTH OF HERE, SO A BIT OF A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
GETS ESTABLISHED. 850MB TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER DEGREE. WITH WEST
FLOW, THIS SHOULD ALSO HELP WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SO I`D EXPECT MID 80S TO BE A SOLID BET IN THE VALLEYS. THE
EURO RUNS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER, SO HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE
WARMER GFS TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH SOUTH OF HERE, SO THE AREA IS SOLIDLY IN
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES PUSHING 15-16C WHICH
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN SPOTS. ADD IN SOME
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE ADIRONDACKS, AND I THINK PARTS OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COULD MAKE A RUN AT 90F. I DID INCREASE
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES OVER THE BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH WAS
BIASED A BIT COOL DUE TO THE EURO AND CLIMO IN THE MOS. THAT BLEND
GAVE ME 81F FOR BTV. MEX GUIDANCE WAS 83F. I WENT 85F. WE`LL SEE
HOW FUTURE GUIDANCE GOES AND IF THE TREND TO BE WARMER IS NEEDED.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AGAIN CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

THURSDAY...THIS IS WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN. AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THE EURO IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
A SHORTWAVE. AT THIS POINT, BEST COURSE IS TO TAKE A BLEND. HAVE
PAINTED IN CHANCE LEVEL OF POPS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES MAY AGAIN BE VERY WARM IF THE GFS IS RIGHT. OR COOLER
IF THE EURO IS RIGHT. STUCK WITH THE BLEND. WHICH STILL FEATURES
LOTS OF LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...ESSENTIALLY LOOKING AT VFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND
FOG LINGERING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. AFTER 12Z ANY PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END AND
VISIBILITIES IMPROVE WITH BROKEN CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET. WINDS
WILL HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THEM TONIGHT...BUT AT SPEEDS
GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE AT KRUT
WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR WITH THE FOLLOWING
EXCEPTIONS -- BRIEF MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY.
LOCALIZED IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG (MAINLY AN ISSUE FOR MPV AND SLK).

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...JMG/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 212328
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
728 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 728 PM EDT THURSDAY...MODEST UPDATE AS OF EARLY
EVENING...PRIMARILY TO RAISE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH/WEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. LATEST HI-RES/CAM MODELS SHOW SHOWERY
ACTIVITY CONTINUING AND/OR BLOSSOMING ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NY INTO
CENTRAL/SRN VERMONT OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL SHEAR ZONE AND
DIFFLUENCE SLOWLY PIVOT ACROSS OUR AREA. AS ALLUDED TO
EARLIER...LOWER POPS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST ACROSS NC/NE VT BUT
STILL SOME SCT ACTIVITY HERE AS WELL (CASE IN PT SHOWERS ACROSS
CALEDONIA CTY CURRENTLY). RAINFALL RATES IN GENERAL COMING DOWN
AND WHILE SOME AREAS WILL STILL SEE A GOOD SOAKER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH LOSS OR LACK OF INSTABILITY FEEL ANY
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON
TRACK...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT NEAR SEASONAL LATE SUMMER NORMS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT
EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
AFTN MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO...ASSOCIATED WITH A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
EASTWARD...PASSING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

REGIONAL RADAR THIS AFTN DEPICTS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...WITH ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL NY. UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH LAPS CAPES
AROUND 2000 J/KG. EXPECT THESE TO GENERALLY PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH A CONTINUING THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS INTO SOUTHERN VT.
I`VE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR THIS GENERAL AREA THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. FORECAST QPF GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH TAPERING SHARPLY WITH
NORTHEAST EXTENT.

LATER TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT...RAIN COVERAGE THEN BECOMES MORE
NEBULOUS/SPOTTY. DECREASING TREND TO POPS OVERNIGHT TO CHANCE
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. OVERCAST
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY AREAS OF MIST OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS. FELT BOTH
12Z MAV AND MET MOS WERE BOTH TOO COLD WITH LOWS GIVEN CLOUD
COVER...OPTING TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LOW THEN CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. NAM AND
GFS DEPICT A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND AND PASSING
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING PEAK HEATING. THEREFORE...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FORECAST
DURING THE AFTN HOURS...TRENDING DRIER BY EVENING. MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVERCAST TRENDS TO PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY BY AFTN FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGHS FRIDAY ARE COOLEST IN SOUTHERN VT AND ESSEX COUNTY NY AND
WARMEST NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WITH DRY WEATHER
FOR SATURDAY. WHILE CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
FOR MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...EASTERLY TRAJECTORIES AND SATURATED
NAM/BTV-4 LOW-LEVEL RH PROGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR MARINE
LAYER/STRATUS IN EASTERN VT. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FROM +9C IN EASTERN
VT TO AROUND +11C ELSEWHERE...LOOKING AT HIGHS ONLY AROUND 70 IN
EASTERN VT TO MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWS LOWS TO RANGE FROM UPPER
40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS
FOR THE TIME. MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY STRONG
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE (AKA: RIDGOSAUROUS). 12Z SUITE OF
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER AND PRIOR
RUNS. NOTED THAT THE 12Z ECMWF TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS FOR THE
SCENARIO ON WEDNESDAY AND IS NOW SHOWING A STRONGER RIDGE INTO MID
WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE FOR THURSDAY, WITH EURO SHOWING A FASTER/MORE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE. THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
FOR BEYOND THE OFFICIAL PERIOD I`M FORECASTING FOR, BUT AN EARLY
LOOK AT GUIDANCE FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND SEEMS TO INDICATE IT WILL
FEATURE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. WE`LL
SEE. AS FOR THE DAILY SPECIFICS, JUST READ ON:

SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF HERE SO CONTINUED
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. 850 MPH TEMPERATURES RISE TO 11-13C (WARMEST
IN WESTERN HALF), WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S EAST TO
LOW 80S WEST. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP ANY CLOUDS TO A MINIMUM.
AT NIGHT, CLEAR AND CALM SO LOOK FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD, SO HARDLY A BREEZE. 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER DEGREE TO ABOUT 12-14C, SO ADD ABOUT 1-3F
FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FROM SUNDAY -- LOWER 80S PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE.
MONDAY NIGHT, MORE CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH SOUTH OF HERE, SO A BIT OF A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
GETS ESTABLISHED. 850MB TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER DEGREE. WITH WEST
FLOW, THIS SHOULD ALSO HELP WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SO I`D EXPECT MID 80S TO BE A SOLID BET IN THE VALLEYS. THE
EURO RUNS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER, SO HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE
WARMER GFS TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH SOUTH OF HERE, SO THE AREA IS SOLIDLY IN
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES PUSHING 15-16C WHICH
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN SPOTS. ADD IN SOME
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE ADIRONDACKS, AND I THINK PARTS OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COULD MAKE A RUN AT 90F. I DID INCREASE
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES OVER THE BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH WAS
BIASED A BIT COOL DUE TO THE EURO AND CLIMO IN THE MOS. THAT BLEND
GAVE ME 81F FOR BTV. MEX GUIDANCE WAS 83F. I WENT 85F. WE`LL SEE
HOW FUTURE GUIDANCE GOES AND IF THE TREND TO BE WARMER IS NEEDED.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AGAIN CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

THURSDAY...THIS IS WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN. AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THE EURO IS MORE AGRESSIVE WITH
A SHORTWAVE. AT THIS POINT, BEST COURSE IS TO TAKE A BLEND. HAVE
PAINTED IN CHANCE LEVEL OF POPS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES MAY AGAIN BE VERY WARM IF THE GFS IS RIGHT. OR COOLER
IF THE EURO IS RIGHT. STUCK WITH THE BLEND. WHICH STILL FEATURES
LOTS OF LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY....CURRENTLY SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORMS ARE
QUICKLY DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK WHILE AN
AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN (ASSOCIATED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS) IS MOVING
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT. SOME MVFR CEILINGS TUCKED UP ALONG
THE GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL AS WELL. THROUGH 00Z, ANTICIPATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BUBBLE UP MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK, AFFECTING MSS, SLK AND PBG. HAVE CARRIED VCTS
FOR THESE LOCATIONS, WITH SOME TEMPO GROUPS WHERE I`M A LITTLE
MORE CONFIDENT ON TIMING. FOR VERMONT WENT MAINLY VCSH AS NOT
ANTICIPATING AS HIGH OF A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

FUZZY ON THE DETAILS ON WHAT COULD HAPPEN OVERNIGHT. SUSPECT THERE
WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND, THOUGH CHANCES ARE BELOW 50% SO THEY
WON`T SHOW IN THE TAFS. ALSO ANTICIPATE CEILINGS TO DROP INTO THE
MVFR RANGE IN MANY AREAS. COULD ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT FOG REDUCING
VISIBILITY TO 4-6SM.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. JUST CALLED IT `VCSH` IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
VFR WITH THE FOLLOWING EXCEPTIONS -- BRIEF MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. LOCALIZED IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG (MAINLY AN
ISSUE FOR MPV AND SLK).

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...JMG/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 212328
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
728 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 728 PM EDT THURSDAY...MODEST UPDATE AS OF EARLY
EVENING...PRIMARILY TO RAISE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH/WEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. LATEST HI-RES/CAM MODELS SHOW SHOWERY
ACTIVITY CONTINUING AND/OR BLOSSOMING ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NY INTO
CENTRAL/SRN VERMONT OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL SHEAR ZONE AND
DIFFLUENCE SLOWLY PIVOT ACROSS OUR AREA. AS ALLUDED TO
EARLIER...LOWER POPS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST ACROSS NC/NE VT BUT
STILL SOME SCT ACTIVITY HERE AS WELL (CASE IN PT SHOWERS ACROSS
CALEDONIA CTY CURRENTLY). RAINFALL RATES IN GENERAL COMING DOWN
AND WHILE SOME AREAS WILL STILL SEE A GOOD SOAKER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH LOSS OR LACK OF INSTABILITY FEEL ANY
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON
TRACK...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT NEAR SEASONAL LATE SUMMER NORMS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT
EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
AFTN MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO...ASSOCIATED WITH A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
EASTWARD...PASSING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

REGIONAL RADAR THIS AFTN DEPICTS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...WITH ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL NY. UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH LAPS CAPES
AROUND 2000 J/KG. EXPECT THESE TO GENERALLY PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH A CONTINUING THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS INTO SOUTHERN VT.
I`VE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR THIS GENERAL AREA THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. FORECAST QPF GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH TAPERING SHARPLY WITH
NORTHEAST EXTENT.

LATER TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT...RAIN COVERAGE THEN BECOMES MORE
NEBULOUS/SPOTTY. DECREASING TREND TO POPS OVERNIGHT TO CHANCE
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. OVERCAST
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY AREAS OF MIST OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS. FELT BOTH
12Z MAV AND MET MOS WERE BOTH TOO COLD WITH LOWS GIVEN CLOUD
COVER...OPTING TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LOW THEN CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. NAM AND
GFS DEPICT A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND AND PASSING
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING PEAK HEATING. THEREFORE...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FORECAST
DURING THE AFTN HOURS...TRENDING DRIER BY EVENING. MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVERCAST TRENDS TO PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY BY AFTN FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGHS FRIDAY ARE COOLEST IN SOUTHERN VT AND ESSEX COUNTY NY AND
WARMEST NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WITH DRY WEATHER
FOR SATURDAY. WHILE CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
FOR MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...EASTERLY TRAJECTORIES AND SATURATED
NAM/BTV-4 LOW-LEVEL RH PROGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR MARINE
LAYER/STRATUS IN EASTERN VT. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FROM +9C IN EASTERN
VT TO AROUND +11C ELSEWHERE...LOOKING AT HIGHS ONLY AROUND 70 IN
EASTERN VT TO MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWS LOWS TO RANGE FROM UPPER
40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS
FOR THE TIME. MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY STRONG
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE (AKA: RIDGOSAUROUS). 12Z SUITE OF
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER AND PRIOR
RUNS. NOTED THAT THE 12Z ECMWF TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS FOR THE
SCENARIO ON WEDNESDAY AND IS NOW SHOWING A STRONGER RIDGE INTO MID
WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE FOR THURSDAY, WITH EURO SHOWING A FASTER/MORE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE. THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
FOR BEYOND THE OFFICIAL PERIOD I`M FORECASTING FOR, BUT AN EARLY
LOOK AT GUIDANCE FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND SEEMS TO INDICATE IT WILL
FEATURE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. WE`LL
SEE. AS FOR THE DAILY SPECIFICS, JUST READ ON:

SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF HERE SO CONTINUED
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. 850 MPH TEMPERATURES RISE TO 11-13C (WARMEST
IN WESTERN HALF), WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S EAST TO
LOW 80S WEST. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP ANY CLOUDS TO A MINIMUM.
AT NIGHT, CLEAR AND CALM SO LOOK FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD, SO HARDLY A BREEZE. 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER DEGREE TO ABOUT 12-14C, SO ADD ABOUT 1-3F
FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FROM SUNDAY -- LOWER 80S PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE.
MONDAY NIGHT, MORE CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH SOUTH OF HERE, SO A BIT OF A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
GETS ESTABLISHED. 850MB TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER DEGREE. WITH WEST
FLOW, THIS SHOULD ALSO HELP WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SO I`D EXPECT MID 80S TO BE A SOLID BET IN THE VALLEYS. THE
EURO RUNS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER, SO HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE
WARMER GFS TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH SOUTH OF HERE, SO THE AREA IS SOLIDLY IN
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES PUSHING 15-16C WHICH
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN SPOTS. ADD IN SOME
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE ADIRONDACKS, AND I THINK PARTS OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COULD MAKE A RUN AT 90F. I DID INCREASE
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES OVER THE BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH WAS
BIASED A BIT COOL DUE TO THE EURO AND CLIMO IN THE MOS. THAT BLEND
GAVE ME 81F FOR BTV. MEX GUIDANCE WAS 83F. I WENT 85F. WE`LL SEE
HOW FUTURE GUIDANCE GOES AND IF THE TREND TO BE WARMER IS NEEDED.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AGAIN CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

THURSDAY...THIS IS WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN. AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THE EURO IS MORE AGRESSIVE WITH
A SHORTWAVE. AT THIS POINT, BEST COURSE IS TO TAKE A BLEND. HAVE
PAINTED IN CHANCE LEVEL OF POPS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES MAY AGAIN BE VERY WARM IF THE GFS IS RIGHT. OR COOLER
IF THE EURO IS RIGHT. STUCK WITH THE BLEND. WHICH STILL FEATURES
LOTS OF LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY....CURRENTLY SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORMS ARE
QUICKLY DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK WHILE AN
AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN (ASSOCIATED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS) IS MOVING
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT. SOME MVFR CEILINGS TUCKED UP ALONG
THE GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL AS WELL. THROUGH 00Z, ANTICIPATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BUBBLE UP MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK, AFFECTING MSS, SLK AND PBG. HAVE CARRIED VCTS
FOR THESE LOCATIONS, WITH SOME TEMPO GROUPS WHERE I`M A LITTLE
MORE CONFIDENT ON TIMING. FOR VERMONT WENT MAINLY VCSH AS NOT
ANTICIPATING AS HIGH OF A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

FUZZY ON THE DETAILS ON WHAT COULD HAPPEN OVERNIGHT. SUSPECT THERE
WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND, THOUGH CHANCES ARE BELOW 50% SO THEY
WON`T SHOW IN THE TAFS. ALSO ANTICIPATE CEILINGS TO DROP INTO THE
MVFR RANGE IN MANY AREAS. COULD ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT FOG REDUCING
VISIBILITY TO 4-6SM.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. JUST CALLED IT `VCSH` IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
VFR WITH THE FOLLOWING EXCEPTIONS -- BRIEF MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. LOCALIZED IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG (MAINLY AN
ISSUE FOR MPV AND SLK).

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...JMG/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH






000
FXUS61 KALY 212252
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
652 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST TOMORROW WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
AND COOL TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT ALL LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE FROM QUEBEC INTO THE NORTHEAST. IT WILL BRING INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 652 PM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY HAS
PROVIDED THE LIFT FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE BEEN
ONGOING FROM THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS SO FAR.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED...WHICH IS HELPING KEEP THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOW.
THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS ONLY UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE
CURRENTLY PRESENT...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES IN THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THERE IS MORE SFC BASED CAPE ACROSS
CENTRAL NY AND INTO NE PA...AND THESE ARE THE LOCATIONS WHERE A
HANDFUL OF SEVERE REPORTS HAVE OCCURRED TODAY. WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WE SEE NO REASON WHY CAPE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WANE...AND KEEP THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM OUR AREA.
THUNDER WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR...AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT.

ALSO...WITH PWATS ABOVE NORMAL /AROUND 1.63 INCHES FROM THIS
MORNINGS KALY SOUNDING/...DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S...AND HIGH FZL
LEVELS /FZL LEVELS AROUND 12000 FT/....THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...AS WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL DOMINATE. SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PRODUCED ONE TO TWO INCHES
OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...AND A FEW FLOOD ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STILL ONGOING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY...THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL MINOR
FLOOD CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE...AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES EASTWARD.
LUCKILY...THERE IS ENOUGH FLOW TO KEEP THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING ALONG...AND PREVENT TOO MUCH FROM FALLING OVER ANY ONE
PARTICULAR LOCATION. STILL...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEE OUR
HYDRO DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

POPS TAPER DOWN TO CHANCE FOR LATE TONIGHT /BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO/ AS
THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE BEST
FORCING STARTS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT STILL LOOKS
TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MIN TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO SHIFT OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
FOR THE THREAT FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESP DURING DAYTIME
HEATING. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON FRIDAY...AS THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL BE STARTING TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IT STILL LOOKS TO STAY FAIRLY CLOUDY WITH
THE UPPER LOW NEARBY...SO TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN. MAX TEMPS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A LINGERING SPRINKLE OR SHOWER
CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...OTHERWISE IT
LOOKS TO BE DRY. FINALLY...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL START TO
OCCUR...ESP BY SAT MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AS DRIER AIR
STARTS TO WORK IN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. MIN TEMPS FRI NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 50S...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 70S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE
EXPECTED...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO FALL EASILY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER OVER THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OFFSHORE. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. HIGHS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST BEGINS TO APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY BUT THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING SHOULD STILL BE IN PLACE.
SO...JUST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRIMARY 500HPA SHORT WV IS MOVING INTO FCA W/ITS ASSOC WK SFC TROF...AND
SCT -SHRA/TSTMS ARE EVOLVING INTO MORE WIDESPREAD -SHRA...AND EMBEDDED
TSTMS AS THEY ARE MVNG INTO AREAS OF ELEVATED CAPE. CIGS AND OR
VSBYS WILL BE MVFR DURING THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS IFR IN TSTMS
THIS EVENING...BCMG IFR OVERNIGHT WITH LOWERING CIGS AND AREAS OF
FOG FORMING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING BCMG NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT.

FRI THE SFC TROF WILL LINGER NR WESTERN PERIPHERY OF FCA...AS SVRL
500HPA SHORT WVS DROP SE IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING 500HPA CUTOFF.
SCT-BKN -SHRA WILL DIM THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
LLVLS FROM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH UNDER 500HPA RIDGE OVER
QB. WINDS WILL BCMG LIGHT NE. CIGS/VSBY WILL BE MVFR MUCH OF THE
DAY...IMPVG TO VFR TWRDS EVNG.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL
KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM. RH VALUES WILL BE NEAR
100 PERCENT IN MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT. WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
AROUND TOMORROW...RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 70 PERCENT THROUGH
THE ENTIRE DAY...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THANKS TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THESE HEAVIEST OF THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OF UP TO TWO INCHES
PER HOUR.

SOME AREAS...GENERALLY FROM AROUND AMSTERDAM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SACANDAGA LAKE AND INTO WESTERN SARATOGA COUNTY...SAW TWO TO FOUR
INCHES OF RAIN LAST NIGHT. SOME PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY SAW AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE
LATEST ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...GROUND
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN RATHER DRY...DUE TO A LACK OF RECENT
RAINFALL. AS A RESULT...MOST AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE SOME
RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IF HEAVY RAIN OCCURS OVER THOSE AREAS THAT SAW
RAINFALL LAST NIGHT OR IF RAINFALL REPEATEDLY MOVES OVER THE SAME
LOCATION THROUGH INTO EVENING...THEN SOME MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR. AN ISOLATED
FLASH FLOOD CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT...ALTHOUGH ANY POSSIBLE
FLOOD ISSUES WOULD LIKELY BE MORE OF THE POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN TYPE
CONCERNS.

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL END TONIGHT...AS THE BEST
FORCING STARTS TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA. EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS INTO TOMORROW...NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON MAIN STREAM RIVERS DUE TO THE
RAINFALL...NO FLOODING OF LARGER RIVERS IS EXPECTED. WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...RIVER LEVELS WILL
RECEDE AND/OR HOLD STEADY INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...IRL/SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 212252
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
652 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST TOMORROW WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
AND COOL TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT ALL LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE FROM QUEBEC INTO THE NORTHEAST. IT WILL BRING INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 652 PM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY HAS
PROVIDED THE LIFT FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE BEEN
ONGOING FROM THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS SO FAR.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED...WHICH IS HELPING KEEP THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOW.
THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS ONLY UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE
CURRENTLY PRESENT...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES IN THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THERE IS MORE SFC BASED CAPE ACROSS
CENTRAL NY AND INTO NE PA...AND THESE ARE THE LOCATIONS WHERE A
HANDFUL OF SEVERE REPORTS HAVE OCCURRED TODAY. WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WE SEE NO REASON WHY CAPE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WANE...AND KEEP THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM OUR AREA.
THUNDER WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR...AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT.

ALSO...WITH PWATS ABOVE NORMAL /AROUND 1.63 INCHES FROM THIS
MORNINGS KALY SOUNDING/...DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S...AND HIGH FZL
LEVELS /FZL LEVELS AROUND 12000 FT/....THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...AS WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL DOMINATE. SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PRODUCED ONE TO TWO INCHES
OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...AND A FEW FLOOD ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STILL ONGOING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY...THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL MINOR
FLOOD CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE...AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES EASTWARD.
LUCKILY...THERE IS ENOUGH FLOW TO KEEP THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING ALONG...AND PREVENT TOO MUCH FROM FALLING OVER ANY ONE
PARTICULAR LOCATION. STILL...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEE OUR
HYDRO DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

POPS TAPER DOWN TO CHANCE FOR LATE TONIGHT /BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO/ AS
THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE BEST
FORCING STARTS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT STILL LOOKS
TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MIN TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO SHIFT OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
FOR THE THREAT FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESP DURING DAYTIME
HEATING. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON FRIDAY...AS THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL BE STARTING TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IT STILL LOOKS TO STAY FAIRLY CLOUDY WITH
THE UPPER LOW NEARBY...SO TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN. MAX TEMPS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A LINGERING SPRINKLE OR SHOWER
CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...OTHERWISE IT
LOOKS TO BE DRY. FINALLY...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL START TO
OCCUR...ESP BY SAT MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AS DRIER AIR
STARTS TO WORK IN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. MIN TEMPS FRI NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 50S...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 70S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE
EXPECTED...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO FALL EASILY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER OVER THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OFFSHORE. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. HIGHS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST BEGINS TO APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY BUT THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING SHOULD STILL BE IN PLACE.
SO...JUST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRIMARY 500HPA SHORT WV IS MOVING INTO FCA W/ITS ASSOC WK SFC TROF...AND
SCT -SHRA/TSTMS ARE EVOLVING INTO MORE WIDESPREAD -SHRA...AND EMBEDDED
TSTMS AS THEY ARE MVNG INTO AREAS OF ELEVATED CAPE. CIGS AND OR
VSBYS WILL BE MVFR DURING THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS IFR IN TSTMS
THIS EVENING...BCMG IFR OVERNIGHT WITH LOWERING CIGS AND AREAS OF
FOG FORMING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING BCMG NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT.

FRI THE SFC TROF WILL LINGER NR WESTERN PERIPHERY OF FCA...AS SVRL
500HPA SHORT WVS DROP SE IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING 500HPA CUTOFF.
SCT-BKN -SHRA WILL DIM THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
LLVLS FROM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH UNDER 500HPA RIDGE OVER
QB. WINDS WILL BCMG LIGHT NE. CIGS/VSBY WILL BE MVFR MUCH OF THE
DAY...IMPVG TO VFR TWRDS EVNG.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL
KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM. RH VALUES WILL BE NEAR
100 PERCENT IN MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT. WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
AROUND TOMORROW...RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 70 PERCENT THROUGH
THE ENTIRE DAY...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THANKS TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THESE HEAVIEST OF THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OF UP TO TWO INCHES
PER HOUR.

SOME AREAS...GENERALLY FROM AROUND AMSTERDAM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SACANDAGA LAKE AND INTO WESTERN SARATOGA COUNTY...SAW TWO TO FOUR
INCHES OF RAIN LAST NIGHT. SOME PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY SAW AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE
LATEST ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...GROUND
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN RATHER DRY...DUE TO A LACK OF RECENT
RAINFALL. AS A RESULT...MOST AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE SOME
RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IF HEAVY RAIN OCCURS OVER THOSE AREAS THAT SAW
RAINFALL LAST NIGHT OR IF RAINFALL REPEATEDLY MOVES OVER THE SAME
LOCATION THROUGH INTO EVENING...THEN SOME MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR. AN ISOLATED
FLASH FLOOD CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT...ALTHOUGH ANY POSSIBLE
FLOOD ISSUES WOULD LIKELY BE MORE OF THE POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN TYPE
CONCERNS.

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL END TONIGHT...AS THE BEST
FORCING STARTS TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA. EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS INTO TOMORROW...NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON MAIN STREAM RIVERS DUE TO THE
RAINFALL...NO FLOODING OF LARGER RIVERS IS EXPECTED. WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...RIVER LEVELS WILL
RECEDE AND/OR HOLD STEADY INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...IRL/SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 212252
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
652 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST TOMORROW WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
AND COOL TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT ALL LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE FROM QUEBEC INTO THE NORTHEAST. IT WILL BRING INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 652 PM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY HAS
PROVIDED THE LIFT FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE BEEN
ONGOING FROM THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS SO FAR.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED...WHICH IS HELPING KEEP THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOW.
THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS ONLY UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE
CURRENTLY PRESENT...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES IN THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THERE IS MORE SFC BASED CAPE ACROSS
CENTRAL NY AND INTO NE PA...AND THESE ARE THE LOCATIONS WHERE A
HANDFUL OF SEVERE REPORTS HAVE OCCURRED TODAY. WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WE SEE NO REASON WHY CAPE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WANE...AND KEEP THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM OUR AREA.
THUNDER WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR...AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT.

ALSO...WITH PWATS ABOVE NORMAL /AROUND 1.63 INCHES FROM THIS
MORNINGS KALY SOUNDING/...DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S...AND HIGH FZL
LEVELS /FZL LEVELS AROUND 12000 FT/....THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...AS WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL DOMINATE. SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PRODUCED ONE TO TWO INCHES
OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...AND A FEW FLOOD ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STILL ONGOING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY...THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL MINOR
FLOOD CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE...AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES EASTWARD.
LUCKILY...THERE IS ENOUGH FLOW TO KEEP THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING ALONG...AND PREVENT TOO MUCH FROM FALLING OVER ANY ONE
PARTICULAR LOCATION. STILL...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEE OUR
HYDRO DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

POPS TAPER DOWN TO CHANCE FOR LATE TONIGHT /BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO/ AS
THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE BEST
FORCING STARTS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT STILL LOOKS
TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MIN TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO SHIFT OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
FOR THE THREAT FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESP DURING DAYTIME
HEATING. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON FRIDAY...AS THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL BE STARTING TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IT STILL LOOKS TO STAY FAIRLY CLOUDY WITH
THE UPPER LOW NEARBY...SO TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN. MAX TEMPS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A LINGERING SPRINKLE OR SHOWER
CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...OTHERWISE IT
LOOKS TO BE DRY. FINALLY...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL START TO
OCCUR...ESP BY SAT MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AS DRIER AIR
STARTS TO WORK IN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. MIN TEMPS FRI NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 50S...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 70S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE
EXPECTED...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO FALL EASILY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER OVER THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OFFSHORE. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. HIGHS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST BEGINS TO APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY BUT THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING SHOULD STILL BE IN PLACE.
SO...JUST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRIMARY 500HPA SHORT WV IS MOVING INTO FCA W/ITS ASSOC WK SFC TROF...AND
SCT -SHRA/TSTMS ARE EVOLVING INTO MORE WIDESPREAD -SHRA...AND EMBEDDED
TSTMS AS THEY ARE MVNG INTO AREAS OF ELEVATED CAPE. CIGS AND OR
VSBYS WILL BE MVFR DURING THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS IFR IN TSTMS
THIS EVENING...BCMG IFR OVERNIGHT WITH LOWERING CIGS AND AREAS OF
FOG FORMING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING BCMG NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT.

FRI THE SFC TROF WILL LINGER NR WESTERN PERIPHERY OF FCA...AS SVRL
500HPA SHORT WVS DROP SE IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING 500HPA CUTOFF.
SCT-BKN -SHRA WILL DIM THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
LLVLS FROM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH UNDER 500HPA RIDGE OVER
QB. WINDS WILL BCMG LIGHT NE. CIGS/VSBY WILL BE MVFR MUCH OF THE
DAY...IMPVG TO VFR TWRDS EVNG.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL
KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM. RH VALUES WILL BE NEAR
100 PERCENT IN MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT. WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
AROUND TOMORROW...RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 70 PERCENT THROUGH
THE ENTIRE DAY...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THANKS TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THESE HEAVIEST OF THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OF UP TO TWO INCHES
PER HOUR.

SOME AREAS...GENERALLY FROM AROUND AMSTERDAM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SACANDAGA LAKE AND INTO WESTERN SARATOGA COUNTY...SAW TWO TO FOUR
INCHES OF RAIN LAST NIGHT. SOME PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY SAW AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE
LATEST ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...GROUND
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN RATHER DRY...DUE TO A LACK OF RECENT
RAINFALL. AS A RESULT...MOST AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE SOME
RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IF HEAVY RAIN OCCURS OVER THOSE AREAS THAT SAW
RAINFALL LAST NIGHT OR IF RAINFALL REPEATEDLY MOVES OVER THE SAME
LOCATION THROUGH INTO EVENING...THEN SOME MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR. AN ISOLATED
FLASH FLOOD CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT...ALTHOUGH ANY POSSIBLE
FLOOD ISSUES WOULD LIKELY BE MORE OF THE POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN TYPE
CONCERNS.

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL END TONIGHT...AS THE BEST
FORCING STARTS TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA. EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS INTO TOMORROW...NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON MAIN STREAM RIVERS DUE TO THE
RAINFALL...NO FLOODING OF LARGER RIVERS IS EXPECTED. WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...RIVER LEVELS WILL
RECEDE AND/OR HOLD STEADY INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...IRL/SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 212252
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
652 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST TOMORROW WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
AND COOL TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT ALL LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE FROM QUEBEC INTO THE NORTHEAST. IT WILL BRING INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 652 PM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY HAS
PROVIDED THE LIFT FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE BEEN
ONGOING FROM THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS SO FAR.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED...WHICH IS HELPING KEEP THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOW.
THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS ONLY UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE
CURRENTLY PRESENT...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES IN THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THERE IS MORE SFC BASED CAPE ACROSS
CENTRAL NY AND INTO NE PA...AND THESE ARE THE LOCATIONS WHERE A
HANDFUL OF SEVERE REPORTS HAVE OCCURRED TODAY. WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WE SEE NO REASON WHY CAPE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WANE...AND KEEP THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM OUR AREA.
THUNDER WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR...AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT.

ALSO...WITH PWATS ABOVE NORMAL /AROUND 1.63 INCHES FROM THIS
MORNINGS KALY SOUNDING/...DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S...AND HIGH FZL
LEVELS /FZL LEVELS AROUND 12000 FT/....THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...AS WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL DOMINATE. SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PRODUCED ONE TO TWO INCHES
OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...AND A FEW FLOOD ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STILL ONGOING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY...THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL MINOR
FLOOD CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE...AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES EASTWARD.
LUCKILY...THERE IS ENOUGH FLOW TO KEEP THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING ALONG...AND PREVENT TOO MUCH FROM FALLING OVER ANY ONE
PARTICULAR LOCATION. STILL...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEE OUR
HYDRO DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

POPS TAPER DOWN TO CHANCE FOR LATE TONIGHT /BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO/ AS
THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE BEST
FORCING STARTS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT STILL LOOKS
TO REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MIN TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO SHIFT OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
FOR THE THREAT FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESP DURING DAYTIME
HEATING. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON FRIDAY...AS THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL BE STARTING TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IT STILL LOOKS TO STAY FAIRLY CLOUDY WITH
THE UPPER LOW NEARBY...SO TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN. MAX TEMPS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A LINGERING SPRINKLE OR SHOWER
CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...OTHERWISE IT
LOOKS TO BE DRY. FINALLY...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL START TO
OCCUR...ESP BY SAT MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AS DRIER AIR
STARTS TO WORK IN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. MIN TEMPS FRI NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 50S...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 70S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE
EXPECTED...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO FALL EASILY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER OVER THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OFFSHORE. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. HIGHS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST BEGINS TO APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY BUT THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING SHOULD STILL BE IN PLACE.
SO...JUST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRIMARY 500HPA SHORT WV IS MOVING INTO FCA W/ITS ASSOC WK SFC TROF...AND
SCT -SHRA/TSTMS ARE EVOLVING INTO MORE WIDESPREAD -SHRA...AND EMBEDDED
TSTMS AS THEY ARE MVNG INTO AREAS OF ELEVATED CAPE. CIGS AND OR
VSBYS WILL BE MVFR DURING THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS IFR IN TSTMS
THIS EVENING...BCMG IFR OVERNIGHT WITH LOWERING CIGS AND AREAS OF
FOG FORMING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING BCMG NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT.

FRI THE SFC TROF WILL LINGER NR WESTERN PERIPHERY OF FCA...AS SVRL
500HPA SHORT WVS DROP SE IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING 500HPA CUTOFF.
SCT-BKN -SHRA WILL DIM THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
LLVLS FROM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH UNDER 500HPA RIDGE OVER
QB. WINDS WILL BCMG LIGHT NE. CIGS/VSBY WILL BE MVFR MUCH OF THE
DAY...IMPVG TO VFR TWRDS EVNG.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL
KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM. RH VALUES WILL BE NEAR
100 PERCENT IN MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT. WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
AROUND TOMORROW...RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 70 PERCENT THROUGH
THE ENTIRE DAY...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THANKS TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THESE HEAVIEST OF THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OF UP TO TWO INCHES
PER HOUR.

SOME AREAS...GENERALLY FROM AROUND AMSTERDAM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SACANDAGA LAKE AND INTO WESTERN SARATOGA COUNTY...SAW TWO TO FOUR
INCHES OF RAIN LAST NIGHT. SOME PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY SAW AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE
LATEST ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...GROUND
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN RATHER DRY...DUE TO A LACK OF RECENT
RAINFALL. AS A RESULT...MOST AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE SOME
RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IF HEAVY RAIN OCCURS OVER THOSE AREAS THAT SAW
RAINFALL LAST NIGHT OR IF RAINFALL REPEATEDLY MOVES OVER THE SAME
LOCATION THROUGH INTO EVENING...THEN SOME MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR. AN ISOLATED
FLASH FLOOD CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT...ALTHOUGH ANY POSSIBLE
FLOOD ISSUES WOULD LIKELY BE MORE OF THE POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN TYPE
CONCERNS.

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL END TONIGHT...AS THE BEST
FORCING STARTS TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA. EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS INTO TOMORROW...NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON MAIN STREAM RIVERS DUE TO THE
RAINFALL...NO FLOODING OF LARGER RIVERS IS EXPECTED. WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...RIVER LEVELS WILL
RECEDE AND/OR HOLD STEADY INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...IRL/SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KALY 212238
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
638 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST TOMORROW WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
AND COOL TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT ALL LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE FROM QUEBEC INTO THE NORTHEAST. IT WILL BRING INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 357 PM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED WEST OF
THE REGION JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. WITH A MOIST AIR MASS
IN PLACE...THERE IS PLENTY OF FORCING IN PLACE TO ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS..

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED...WHICH IS HELPING KEEP THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOW.
HOWEVER...WITH PWATS ABOVE NORMAL /AROUND 1.63 INCHES FROM THIS
MORNINGS KALY SOUNDING/...DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S...AND HIGH FZL
LEVELS /FZL LEVELS AROUND 12000 FT/....THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...AS
WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL DOMINATE. THE RADAR HAS ALREADY SHOWN
SEVERAL SLOW MOVING LOW TOPPED STORMS...WITH HEAVY ECHOES LOCATED
TOWARDS THE BOTTOMS OF THE STORM...INDICATING HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AS THE 3KM HRRR SHOWS
DISORGANIZED...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING. SEE OUR HYDRO DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

POPS GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN TO CHANCE FOR LATE TONIGHT AS THE CORE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE BEST FORCING
STARTS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT STILL LOOKS TO
REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MIN TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO SHIFT OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
FOR THE THREAT FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESP DURING DAYTIME
HEATING. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON FRIDAY...AS THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL BE STARTING TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IT STILL LOOKS TO STAY FAIRLY CLOUDY WITH
THE UPPER LOW NEARBY...SO TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN. MAX TEMPS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A LINGERING SPRINKLE OR SHOWER
CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...OTHERWISE IT
LOOKS TO BE DRY. FINALLY...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL START TO
OCCUR...ESP BY SAT MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AS DRIER AIR
STARTS TO WORK IN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. MIN TEMPS FRI NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 50S...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 70S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE
EXPECTED...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO FALL EASILY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER OVER THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OFFSHORE. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. HIGHS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST BEGINS TO APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY BUT THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING SHOULD STILL BE IN PLACE.
SO...JUST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRIMARY 500HPA SHORT WV IS MOVING INTO FCA W/ITS ASSOC WK SFC TROF...AND
SCT -SHRA/TSTMS ARE EVOLVING INTO MORE WIDESPREAD -SHRA...AND EMBEDDED
TSTMS AS THEY ARE MVNG INTO AREAS OF ELEVATED CAPE. CIGS AND OR
VSBYS WILL BE MVFR DURING THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS IFR IN TSTMS
THIS EVENING...BCMG IFR OVERNIGHT WITH LOWERING CIGS AND AREAS OF
FOG FORMING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING BCMG NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT.

FRI THE SFC TROF WILL LINGER NR WESTERN PERIPHERY OF FCA...AS SVRL
500HPA SHORT WVS DROP SE IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING 500HPA CUTOFF.
SCT-BKN -SHRA WILL DIM THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
LLVLS FROM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH UNDER 500HPA RIDGE OVER
QB. WINDS WILL BCMG LIGHT NE. CIGS/VSBY WILL BE MVFR MUCH OF THE
DAY...IMPVG TO VFR TWRDS EVNG.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL
KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM. RH VALUES WILL BE NEAR
100 PERCENT IN MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT. WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
AROUND TOMORROW...RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 70 PERCENT THROUGH
THE ENTIRE DAY...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THANKS TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE RATHER SLOW MOVING...AND WITH PWATS ABOVE NORMAL
/1.63 INCHES ON THIS MORNINGS 12Z KALY SOUNDING/...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

SOME AREAS...GENERALLY FROM AROUND AMSTERDAM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SACANDAGA LAKE AND INTO WESTERN SARATOGA COUNTY...SAW TWO TO FOUR
INCHES OF RAIN LAST NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...GROUND CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
RATHER DRY...DUE TO A LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL. AS A RESULT...MOST
AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE SOME RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IF HEAVY
RAIN OCCURS OVER THOSE AREAS THAT SAW RAINFALL LAST NIGHT OR IF
RAINFALL REPEATEDLY MOVES OVER THE SAME LOCATION THIS AFTN INTO
EVENING...THEN SOME MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE AND
LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD CANNOT TOTALLY
BE RULED OUT...ALTHOUGH ANY POSSIBLE FLOOD ISSUES WOULD LIKELY BE
MORE OF THE POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN TYPE CONCERNS.

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL END TONIGHT...AS THE BEST
FORCING STARTS TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA. EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS INTO TOMORROW...NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON MAIN STREAM RIVERS DUE TO THE
RAINFALL...NO FLOODING OF LARGER RIVERS IS EXPECTED. WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...RIVER LEVELS WILL
RECEDE AND/OR HOLD STEADY INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...IRL/SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 212238
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
638 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST TOMORROW WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
AND COOL TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT ALL LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE FROM QUEBEC INTO THE NORTHEAST. IT WILL BRING INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 357 PM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED WEST OF
THE REGION JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. WITH A MOIST AIR MASS
IN PLACE...THERE IS PLENTY OF FORCING IN PLACE TO ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS..

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED...WHICH IS HELPING KEEP THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOW.
HOWEVER...WITH PWATS ABOVE NORMAL /AROUND 1.63 INCHES FROM THIS
MORNINGS KALY SOUNDING/...DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S...AND HIGH FZL
LEVELS /FZL LEVELS AROUND 12000 FT/....THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...AS
WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL DOMINATE. THE RADAR HAS ALREADY SHOWN
SEVERAL SLOW MOVING LOW TOPPED STORMS...WITH HEAVY ECHOES LOCATED
TOWARDS THE BOTTOMS OF THE STORM...INDICATING HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AS THE 3KM HRRR SHOWS
DISORGANIZED...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING. SEE OUR HYDRO DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

POPS GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN TO CHANCE FOR LATE TONIGHT AS THE CORE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE BEST FORCING
STARTS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT STILL LOOKS TO
REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MIN TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO SHIFT OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
FOR THE THREAT FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESP DURING DAYTIME
HEATING. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON FRIDAY...AS THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL BE STARTING TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IT STILL LOOKS TO STAY FAIRLY CLOUDY WITH
THE UPPER LOW NEARBY...SO TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN. MAX TEMPS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A LINGERING SPRINKLE OR SHOWER
CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...OTHERWISE IT
LOOKS TO BE DRY. FINALLY...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL START TO
OCCUR...ESP BY SAT MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AS DRIER AIR
STARTS TO WORK IN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. MIN TEMPS FRI NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 50S...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 70S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE
EXPECTED...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO FALL EASILY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER OVER THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OFFSHORE. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. HIGHS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST BEGINS TO APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY BUT THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING SHOULD STILL BE IN PLACE.
SO...JUST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRIMARY 500HPA SHORT WV IS MOVING INTO FCA W/ITS ASSOC WK SFC TROF...AND
SCT -SHRA/TSTMS ARE EVOLVING INTO MORE WIDESPREAD -SHRA...AND EMBEDDED
TSTMS AS THEY ARE MVNG INTO AREAS OF ELEVATED CAPE. CIGS AND OR
VSBYS WILL BE MVFR DURING THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS IFR IN TSTMS
THIS EVENING...BCMG IFR OVERNIGHT WITH LOWERING CIGS AND AREAS OF
FOG FORMING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING BCMG NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT.

FRI THE SFC TROF WILL LINGER NR WESTERN PERIPHERY OF FCA...AS SVRL
500HPA SHORT WVS DROP SE IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING 500HPA CUTOFF.
SCT-BKN -SHRA WILL DIM THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
LLVLS FROM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH UNDER 500HPA RIDGE OVER
QB. WINDS WILL BCMG LIGHT NE. CIGS/VSBY WILL BE MVFR MUCH OF THE
DAY...IMPVG TO VFR TWRDS EVNG.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL
KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM. RH VALUES WILL BE NEAR
100 PERCENT IN MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT. WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
AROUND TOMORROW...RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 70 PERCENT THROUGH
THE ENTIRE DAY...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THANKS TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE RATHER SLOW MOVING...AND WITH PWATS ABOVE NORMAL
/1.63 INCHES ON THIS MORNINGS 12Z KALY SOUNDING/...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

SOME AREAS...GENERALLY FROM AROUND AMSTERDAM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SACANDAGA LAKE AND INTO WESTERN SARATOGA COUNTY...SAW TWO TO FOUR
INCHES OF RAIN LAST NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...GROUND CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
RATHER DRY...DUE TO A LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL. AS A RESULT...MOST
AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE SOME RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IF HEAVY
RAIN OCCURS OVER THOSE AREAS THAT SAW RAINFALL LAST NIGHT OR IF
RAINFALL REPEATEDLY MOVES OVER THE SAME LOCATION THIS AFTN INTO
EVENING...THEN SOME MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE AND
LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD CANNOT TOTALLY
BE RULED OUT...ALTHOUGH ANY POSSIBLE FLOOD ISSUES WOULD LIKELY BE
MORE OF THE POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN TYPE CONCERNS.

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL END TONIGHT...AS THE BEST
FORCING STARTS TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA. EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS INTO TOMORROW...NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON MAIN STREAM RIVERS DUE TO THE
RAINFALL...NO FLOODING OF LARGER RIVERS IS EXPECTED. WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...RIVER LEVELS WILL
RECEDE AND/OR HOLD STEADY INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...IRL/SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 212238
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
638 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST TOMORROW WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
AND COOL TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT ALL LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE FROM QUEBEC INTO THE NORTHEAST. IT WILL BRING INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 357 PM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED WEST OF
THE REGION JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. WITH A MOIST AIR MASS
IN PLACE...THERE IS PLENTY OF FORCING IN PLACE TO ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS..

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED...WHICH IS HELPING KEEP THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOW.
HOWEVER...WITH PWATS ABOVE NORMAL /AROUND 1.63 INCHES FROM THIS
MORNINGS KALY SOUNDING/...DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S...AND HIGH FZL
LEVELS /FZL LEVELS AROUND 12000 FT/....THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...AS
WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL DOMINATE. THE RADAR HAS ALREADY SHOWN
SEVERAL SLOW MOVING LOW TOPPED STORMS...WITH HEAVY ECHOES LOCATED
TOWARDS THE BOTTOMS OF THE STORM...INDICATING HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AS THE 3KM HRRR SHOWS
DISORGANIZED...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING. SEE OUR HYDRO DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

POPS GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN TO CHANCE FOR LATE TONIGHT AS THE CORE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE BEST FORCING
STARTS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT STILL LOOKS TO
REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MIN TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO SHIFT OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
FOR THE THREAT FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESP DURING DAYTIME
HEATING. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON FRIDAY...AS THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL BE STARTING TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IT STILL LOOKS TO STAY FAIRLY CLOUDY WITH
THE UPPER LOW NEARBY...SO TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN. MAX TEMPS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A LINGERING SPRINKLE OR SHOWER
CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...OTHERWISE IT
LOOKS TO BE DRY. FINALLY...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL START TO
OCCUR...ESP BY SAT MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AS DRIER AIR
STARTS TO WORK IN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. MIN TEMPS FRI NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 50S...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 70S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE
EXPECTED...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO FALL EASILY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER OVER THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OFFSHORE. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. HIGHS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST BEGINS TO APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY BUT THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING SHOULD STILL BE IN PLACE.
SO...JUST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRIMARY 500HPA SHORT WV IS MOVING INTO FCA W/ITS ASSOC WK SFC TROF...AND
SCT -SHRA/TSTMS ARE EVOLVING INTO MORE WIDESPREAD -SHRA...AND EMBEDDED
TSTMS AS THEY ARE MVNG INTO AREAS OF ELEVATED CAPE. CIGS AND OR
VSBYS WILL BE MVFR DURING THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS IFR IN TSTMS
THIS EVENING...BCMG IFR OVERNIGHT WITH LOWERING CIGS AND AREAS OF
FOG FORMING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING BCMG NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT.

FRI THE SFC TROF WILL LINGER NR WESTERN PERIPHERY OF FCA...AS SVRL
500HPA SHORT WVS DROP SE IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING 500HPA CUTOFF.
SCT-BKN -SHRA WILL DIM THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
LLVLS FROM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH UNDER 500HPA RIDGE OVER
QB. WINDS WILL BCMG LIGHT NE. CIGS/VSBY WILL BE MVFR MUCH OF THE
DAY...IMPVG TO VFR TWRDS EVNG.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL
KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM. RH VALUES WILL BE NEAR
100 PERCENT IN MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT. WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
AROUND TOMORROW...RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 70 PERCENT THROUGH
THE ENTIRE DAY...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THANKS TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE RATHER SLOW MOVING...AND WITH PWATS ABOVE NORMAL
/1.63 INCHES ON THIS MORNINGS 12Z KALY SOUNDING/...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

SOME AREAS...GENERALLY FROM AROUND AMSTERDAM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SACANDAGA LAKE AND INTO WESTERN SARATOGA COUNTY...SAW TWO TO FOUR
INCHES OF RAIN LAST NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...GROUND CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
RATHER DRY...DUE TO A LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL. AS A RESULT...MOST
AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE SOME RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IF HEAVY
RAIN OCCURS OVER THOSE AREAS THAT SAW RAINFALL LAST NIGHT OR IF
RAINFALL REPEATEDLY MOVES OVER THE SAME LOCATION THIS AFTN INTO
EVENING...THEN SOME MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE AND
LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD CANNOT TOTALLY
BE RULED OUT...ALTHOUGH ANY POSSIBLE FLOOD ISSUES WOULD LIKELY BE
MORE OF THE POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN TYPE CONCERNS.

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL END TONIGHT...AS THE BEST
FORCING STARTS TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA. EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS INTO TOMORROW...NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON MAIN STREAM RIVERS DUE TO THE
RAINFALL...NO FLOODING OF LARGER RIVERS IS EXPECTED. WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...RIVER LEVELS WILL
RECEDE AND/OR HOLD STEADY INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...IRL/SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 212238
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
638 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST TOMORROW WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
AND COOL TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT ALL LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE FROM QUEBEC INTO THE NORTHEAST. IT WILL BRING INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 357 PM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED WEST OF
THE REGION JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. WITH A MOIST AIR MASS
IN PLACE...THERE IS PLENTY OF FORCING IN PLACE TO ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS..

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED...WHICH IS HELPING KEEP THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOW.
HOWEVER...WITH PWATS ABOVE NORMAL /AROUND 1.63 INCHES FROM THIS
MORNINGS KALY SOUNDING/...DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S...AND HIGH FZL
LEVELS /FZL LEVELS AROUND 12000 FT/....THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...AS
WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL DOMINATE. THE RADAR HAS ALREADY SHOWN
SEVERAL SLOW MOVING LOW TOPPED STORMS...WITH HEAVY ECHOES LOCATED
TOWARDS THE BOTTOMS OF THE STORM...INDICATING HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AS THE 3KM HRRR SHOWS
DISORGANIZED...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING. SEE OUR HYDRO DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

POPS GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN TO CHANCE FOR LATE TONIGHT AS THE CORE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE BEST FORCING
STARTS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT STILL LOOKS TO
REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MIN TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO SHIFT OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
FOR THE THREAT FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESP DURING DAYTIME
HEATING. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON FRIDAY...AS THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL BE STARTING TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IT STILL LOOKS TO STAY FAIRLY CLOUDY WITH
THE UPPER LOW NEARBY...SO TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN. MAX TEMPS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A LINGERING SPRINKLE OR SHOWER
CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...OTHERWISE IT
LOOKS TO BE DRY. FINALLY...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL START TO
OCCUR...ESP BY SAT MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AS DRIER AIR
STARTS TO WORK IN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. MIN TEMPS FRI NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 50S...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 70S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE
EXPECTED...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO FALL EASILY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER OVER THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OFFSHORE. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. HIGHS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST BEGINS TO APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY BUT THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING SHOULD STILL BE IN PLACE.
SO...JUST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRIMARY 500HPA SHORT WV IS MOVING INTO FCA W/ITS ASSOC WK SFC TROF...AND
SCT -SHRA/TSTMS ARE EVOLVING INTO MORE WIDESPREAD -SHRA...AND EMBEDDED
TSTMS AS THEY ARE MVNG INTO AREAS OF ELEVATED CAPE. CIGS AND OR
VSBYS WILL BE MVFR DURING THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS IFR IN TSTMS
THIS EVENING...BCMG IFR OVERNIGHT WITH LOWERING CIGS AND AREAS OF
FOG FORMING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING BCMG NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT.

FRI THE SFC TROF WILL LINGER NR WESTERN PERIPHERY OF FCA...AS SVRL
500HPA SHORT WVS DROP SE IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING 500HPA CUTOFF.
SCT-BKN -SHRA WILL DIM THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
LLVLS FROM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH UNDER 500HPA RIDGE OVER
QB. WINDS WILL BCMG LIGHT NE. CIGS/VSBY WILL BE MVFR MUCH OF THE
DAY...IMPVG TO VFR TWRDS EVNG.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL
KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM. RH VALUES WILL BE NEAR
100 PERCENT IN MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT. WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
AROUND TOMORROW...RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 70 PERCENT THROUGH
THE ENTIRE DAY...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THANKS TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE RATHER SLOW MOVING...AND WITH PWATS ABOVE NORMAL
/1.63 INCHES ON THIS MORNINGS 12Z KALY SOUNDING/...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

SOME AREAS...GENERALLY FROM AROUND AMSTERDAM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SACANDAGA LAKE AND INTO WESTERN SARATOGA COUNTY...SAW TWO TO FOUR
INCHES OF RAIN LAST NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...GROUND CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
RATHER DRY...DUE TO A LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL. AS A RESULT...MOST
AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE SOME RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IF HEAVY
RAIN OCCURS OVER THOSE AREAS THAT SAW RAINFALL LAST NIGHT OR IF
RAINFALL REPEATEDLY MOVES OVER THE SAME LOCATION THIS AFTN INTO
EVENING...THEN SOME MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE AND
LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD CANNOT TOTALLY
BE RULED OUT...ALTHOUGH ANY POSSIBLE FLOOD ISSUES WOULD LIKELY BE
MORE OF THE POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN TYPE CONCERNS.

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL END TONIGHT...AS THE BEST
FORCING STARTS TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA. EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS INTO TOMORROW...NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON MAIN STREAM RIVERS DUE TO THE
RAINFALL...NO FLOODING OF LARGER RIVERS IS EXPECTED. WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...RIVER LEVELS WILL
RECEDE AND/OR HOLD STEADY INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...IRL/SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 211957
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
357 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST TOMORROW WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
AND COOL TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 357 PM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED WEST OF
THE REGION JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. WITH A MOIST AIRMASS
IN PLACE...THERE IS PLENTY OF FORCING IN PLACE TO ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS..

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED...WHICH IS HELPING KEEP THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOW.
HOWEVER...WITH PWATS ABOVE NORMAL /AROUND 1.63 INCHES FROM THIS
MORNINGS KALY SOUNDING/...DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S...AND HIGH FZL
LEVELS /FZL LEVELS AROUND 12000 FT/....THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...AS
WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL DOMINATE. THE RADAR HAS ALREADY SHOWN
SEVERAL SLOW MOVING LOW TOPPED STORMS...WITH HEAVY ECHOES LOCATED
TOWARDS THE BOTTOMS OF THE STORM...INDICATING HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AS THE 3KM HRRR SHOWS
DISORGANIZED...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING. SEE OUR HYDRO DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

POPS GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN TO CHANCE FOR LATE TONIGHT AS THE CORE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE BEST FORCING
STARTS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT STILL LOOKS TO
REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MIN TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO SHIFT OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
FOR THE THREAT FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESP DURING DAYTIME
HEATING. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON FRIDAY...AS THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL BE STARTING TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IT STILL LOOKS TO STAY FAIRLY CLOUDY WITH
THE UPPER LOW NEARBY...SO TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN. MAX TEMPS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A LINGERING SPRINKLE OR SHOWER
CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...OTHERWISE IT
LOOKS TO BE DRY. FINALLY...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL START TO
OCCUR...ESP BY SAT MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AS DRIER AIR
STARTS TO WORK IN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. MIN TEMPS FRI NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 50S...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 70S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE
EXPECTED...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO FALL EASILY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER OVER THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OFFSHORE. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. HIGHS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST BEGINS TO APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY BUT THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING SHOULD STILL BE IN PLACE.
SO...JUST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED AT
THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...WITH TEMPO GROUPS INDICATING PERIODS OF PRIMARILY MVFR
AT THE TAF SITES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS WITH EVEN SOME
IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT KGFL AND KPSF. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE GENERALLY
LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS FLYING CONDITIONS FALL TO MVFR/IFR. AT THIS TIME
THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR IFR IS AT KGFL AND KPSF...ALTHOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF IFR STRATUS AT KALB AND KPOU AFTER 06Z
AS WELL. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE AFTER 06Z AT KGFL AND
KALB...BUT CONTINUE TO LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AT
KPOU AND KPSF. KEPT IFR STRATUS OUT OF KALB AND KPOU FOR THIS TAF
ISSUANCE AS CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD AFTER 12Z FRIDAY WITH A GRADUALLY DECREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL TREND TOWARDS CALM BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FRIDAY AROUND 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL
KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM. RH VALUES WILL BE NEAR
100 PERCENT IN MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT. WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
AROUND TOMORROW...RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 70 PERCENT THROUGH
THE ENTIRE DAY...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THANKS TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE RATHER SLOW MOVING...AND WITH PWATS ABOVE NORMAL
/1.63 INCHES ON THIS MORNINGS 12Z KALY SOUNDING/...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

SOME AREAS...GENERALLY FROM AROUND AMSTERDAM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SACANDAGA LAKE AND INTO WESTERN SARATOGA COUNTY...SAW TWO TO FOUR
INCHES OF RAIN LAST NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...GROUND CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
RATHER DRY...DUE TO A LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL. AS A RESULT...MOST
AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE SOME RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IF HEAVY
RAIN OCCURS OVER THOSE AREAS THAT SAW RAINFALL LAST NIGHT OR IF
RAINFALL REPEATEDLY MOVES OVER THE SAME LOCATION THIS AFTN INTO
EVENING...THEN SOME MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE AND
LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD CANNOT TOTALLY
BE RULED OUT...ALTHOUGH ANY POSSIBLE FLOOD ISSUES WOULD LIKELY BE
MORE OF THE POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN TYPE CONCERNS.

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL END TONIGHT...AS THE BEST
FORCING STARTS TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA. EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS INTO TOMORROW...NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON MAIN STREAM RIVERS DUE TO THE
RAINFALL...NO FLOODING OF LARGER RIVERS IS EXPECTED. WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...RIVER LEVELS WILL
RECEDE AND/OR HOLD STEADY INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







000
FXUS61 KALY 211957
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
357 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST TOMORROW WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
AND COOL TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 357 PM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED WEST OF
THE REGION JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. WITH A MOIST AIRMASS
IN PLACE...THERE IS PLENTY OF FORCING IN PLACE TO ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS..

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED...WHICH IS HELPING KEEP THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOW.
HOWEVER...WITH PWATS ABOVE NORMAL /AROUND 1.63 INCHES FROM THIS
MORNINGS KALY SOUNDING/...DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S...AND HIGH FZL
LEVELS /FZL LEVELS AROUND 12000 FT/....THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...AS
WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL DOMINATE. THE RADAR HAS ALREADY SHOWN
SEVERAL SLOW MOVING LOW TOPPED STORMS...WITH HEAVY ECHOES LOCATED
TOWARDS THE BOTTOMS OF THE STORM...INDICATING HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AS THE 3KM HRRR SHOWS
DISORGANIZED...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING. SEE OUR HYDRO DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

POPS GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN TO CHANCE FOR LATE TONIGHT AS THE CORE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE BEST FORCING
STARTS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT STILL LOOKS TO
REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MIN TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO SHIFT OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
FOR THE THREAT FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESP DURING DAYTIME
HEATING. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON FRIDAY...AS THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL BE STARTING TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IT STILL LOOKS TO STAY FAIRLY CLOUDY WITH
THE UPPER LOW NEARBY...SO TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN. MAX TEMPS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A LINGERING SPRINKLE OR SHOWER
CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...OTHERWISE IT
LOOKS TO BE DRY. FINALLY...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL START TO
OCCUR...ESP BY SAT MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AS DRIER AIR
STARTS TO WORK IN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. MIN TEMPS FRI NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 50S...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 70S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE
EXPECTED...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO FALL EASILY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER OVER THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OFFSHORE. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. HIGHS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST BEGINS TO APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY BUT THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING SHOULD STILL BE IN PLACE.
SO...JUST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED AT
THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...WITH TEMPO GROUPS INDICATING PERIODS OF PRIMARILY MVFR
AT THE TAF SITES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS WITH EVEN SOME
IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT KGFL AND KPSF. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE GENERALLY
LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS FLYING CONDITIONS FALL TO MVFR/IFR. AT THIS TIME
THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR IFR IS AT KGFL AND KPSF...ALTHOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF IFR STRATUS AT KALB AND KPOU AFTER 06Z
AS WELL. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE AFTER 06Z AT KGFL AND
KALB...BUT CONTINUE TO LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AT
KPOU AND KPSF. KEPT IFR STRATUS OUT OF KALB AND KPOU FOR THIS TAF
ISSUANCE AS CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD AFTER 12Z FRIDAY WITH A GRADUALLY DECREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL TREND TOWARDS CALM BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FRIDAY AROUND 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL
KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM. RH VALUES WILL BE NEAR
100 PERCENT IN MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT. WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
AROUND TOMORROW...RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 70 PERCENT THROUGH
THE ENTIRE DAY...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THANKS TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE RATHER SLOW MOVING...AND WITH PWATS ABOVE NORMAL
/1.63 INCHES ON THIS MORNINGS 12Z KALY SOUNDING/...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

SOME AREAS...GENERALLY FROM AROUND AMSTERDAM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SACANDAGA LAKE AND INTO WESTERN SARATOGA COUNTY...SAW TWO TO FOUR
INCHES OF RAIN LAST NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...GROUND CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
RATHER DRY...DUE TO A LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL. AS A RESULT...MOST
AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE SOME RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IF HEAVY
RAIN OCCURS OVER THOSE AREAS THAT SAW RAINFALL LAST NIGHT OR IF
RAINFALL REPEATEDLY MOVES OVER THE SAME LOCATION THIS AFTN INTO
EVENING...THEN SOME MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE AND
LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD CANNOT TOTALLY
BE RULED OUT...ALTHOUGH ANY POSSIBLE FLOOD ISSUES WOULD LIKELY BE
MORE OF THE POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN TYPE CONCERNS.

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL END TONIGHT...AS THE BEST
FORCING STARTS TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA. EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS INTO TOMORROW...NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON MAIN STREAM RIVERS DUE TO THE
RAINFALL...NO FLOODING OF LARGER RIVERS IS EXPECTED. WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...RIVER LEVELS WILL
RECEDE AND/OR HOLD STEADY INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS








000
FXUS61 KBTV 211943
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
343 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...AFTN MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A SFC LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO...ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEAMPLIFYING UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH OF
THESE FEATURES WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD...PASSING OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

REGIONAL RADAR THIS AFTN DEPICTS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...WITH ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL NY. UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH LAPS CAPES
AROUND 2000 J/KG. EXPECT THESE TO GENERALLY PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH A CONTINUING THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS INTO SOUTHERN VT.
I`VE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR THIS GENERAL AREA THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. FORECAST QPF GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH TAPERING SHARPLY WITH
NORTHEAST EXTENT.

LATER TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT...RAIN COVERAGE THEN BECOMES MORE
NEBULOUS/SPOTTY. DECREASING TREND TO POPS OVERNIGHT TO CHANCE
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. OVERCAST
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY AREAS OF MIST OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS. FELT BOTH
12Z MAV AND MET MOS WERE BOTH TOO COLD WITH LOWS GIVEN CLOUD
COVER...OPTING TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LOW THEN CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. NAM AND
GFS DEPICT A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND AND PASSING
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING PEAK HEATING. THEREFORE...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FORECAST
DURING THE AFTN HOURS...TRENDING DRIER BY EVENING. MOSTLY
CLOUDY/OVERCAST TRENDS TO PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY BY AFTN FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGHS FRIDAY ARE COOLEST IN SOUTHERN VT AND ESSEX COUNTY NY AND
WARMEST NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WITH DRY WEATHER
FOR SATURDAY. WHILE CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
FOR MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...EASTERLY TRAJECTORIES AND SATURATED
NAM/BTV-4 LOW-LEVEL RH PROGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR MARINE
LAYER/STRATUS IN EASTERN VT. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FROM +9C IN EASTERN
VT TO AROUND +11C ELSEWHERE...LOOKING AT HIGHS ONLY AROUND 70 IN
EASTERN VT TO MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWS LOWS TO RANGE FROM UPPER
40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...NO BIG CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS
FOR THE TIME. MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY STRONG
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE (AKA: RIDGOSAUROUS). 12Z SUITE OF
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER AND PRIOR
RUNS. NOTED THAT THE 12Z ECMWF TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS FOR THE
SCENARIO ON WEDNESDAY AND IS NOW SHOWING A STRONGER RIDGE INTO MID
WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE FOR THURSDAY, WITH EURO SHOWING A FASTER/MORE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE. THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
FOR BEYOND THE OFFICIAL PERIOD I`M FORECASTING FOR, BUT AN EARLY
LOOK AT GUIDANCE FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND SEEMS TO INDICATE IT WILL
FEATURE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. WE`LL
SEE. AS FOR THE DAILY SPECIFICS, JUST READ ON:

SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF HERE SO CONTINUED
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. 850 MPH TEMPERATURES RISE TO 11-13C (WARMEST
IN WESTERN HALF), WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S EAST TO
LOW 80S WEST. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP ANY CLOUDS TO A MINIMUM.
AT NIGHT, CLEAR AND CALM SO LOOK FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD, SO HARDLY A BREEZE. 850MB
TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER DEGREE TO ABOUT 12-14C, SO ADD ABOUT 1-3F
FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FROM SUNDAY -- LOWER 80S PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE.
MONDAY NIGHT, MORE CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH SOUTH OF HERE, SO A BIT OF A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
GETS ESTABLISHED. 850MB TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER DEGREE. WITH WEST
FLOW, THIS SHOULD ALSO HELP WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SO I`D EXPECT MID 80S TO BE A SOLID BET IN THE VALLEYS. THE
EURO RUNS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER, SO HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE
WARMER GFS TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH SOUTH OF HERE, SO THE AREA IS SOLIDLY IN
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES PUSHING 15-16C WHICH
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN SPOTS. ADD IN SOME
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE ADIRONDACKS, AND I THINK PARTS OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY COULD MAKE A RUN AT 90F. I DID INCREASE
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES OVER THE BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH WAS
BIASED A BIT COOL DUE TO THE EURO AND CLIMO IN THE MOS. THAT BLEND
GAVE ME 81F FOR BTV. MEX GUIDANCE WAS 83F. I WENT 85F. WE`LL SEE
HOW FUTURE GUIDANCE GOES AND IF THE TREND TO BE WARMER IS NEEDED.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AGAIN CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

THURSDAY...THIS IS WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN. AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THE EURO IS MORE AGRESSIVE WITH
A SHORTWAVE. AT THIS POINT, BEST COURSE IS TO TAKE A BLEND. HAVE
PAINTED IN CHANCE LEVEL OF POPS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES MAY AGAIN BE VERY WARM IF THE GFS IS RIGHT. OR COOLER
IF THE EURO IS RIGHT. STUCK WITH THE BLEND. WHICH STILL FEATURES
LOTS OF LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY....CURRENTLY SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORMS ARE
QUICKLY DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK WHILE AN
AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN (ASSOCIATED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS) IS MOVING
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT. SOME MVFR CEILINGS TUCKED UP ALONG
THE GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL AS WELL. THROUGH 00Z, ANTICIPATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BUBBLE UP MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK, AFFECTING MSS, SLK AND PBG. HAVE CARRIED VCTS
FOR THESE LOCATIONS, WITH SOME TEMPO GROUPS WHERE I`M A LITTLE
MORE CONFIDENT ON TIMING. FOR VERMONT WENT MAINLY VCSH AS NOT
ANTICIPATING AS HIGH OF A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

FUZZY ON THE DETAILS ON WHAT COULD HAPPEN OVERNIGHT. SUSPECT THERE
WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND, THOUGH CHANCES ARE BELOW 50% SO THEY
WON`T SHOW IN THE TAFS. ALSO ANTICIPATE CEILINGS TO DROP INTO THE
MVFR RANGE IN MANY AREAS. COULD ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT FOG REDUCING
VISIBILITY TO 4-6SM.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. JUST CALLED IT `VCSH` IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
VFR WITH THE FOLLOWING EXCEPTIONS -- BRIEF MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. LOCALIZED IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG (MAINLY AN
ISSUE FOR MPV AND SLK).

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH






000
FXUS61 KALY 211735
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
135 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS
EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE
COAST TOMORROW WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES
OVER THE AREA. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT...LATEST REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS AREAS OF
MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REGION. THE BIGGEST CONCENTRATION IS WEST OF THE AREA TOWARDS
CENTRAL NY...THE FINGER LAKES...AND THE SOUTHERN TIER. OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN NY AND
EVENTUALLY WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST TO EAST...AS SHOWN IN
THE LATEST 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE.  ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND IF THIS OCCURS OVER ANY AREAS
THAT SAW SIGNIFICANT RAIN LAST NIGHT /SUCH AS THE SACANDAGA
AREA/...THEN THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR FLOODING...ESP OF LOW LYING
AND URBAN AREAS. OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE THE ON AND OFF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY OVER THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST A FEW BREAKS OR LIGHTENING UP OF THE
SKIES...ALONG WITH CONTINUED MUGGY CONDITIONS.

TEMPS ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY AND WILL EITHER
HOLD STEADY OR ONLY RISE A DEGREE OR TWO MORE. HIGHS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S...WITH UPPER 60S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...WITH
DRIER AIR WORKING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM A SPRAWLING
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. POPS ARE SLOWLY
FORECAST TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
ON SATURDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS RISING TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AS WE ENTER THE LAST WEEK OF AUGUST.

WPC GUIDANCE/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES/GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SRN QUEBEC AND
NRN NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT...AND BE CENTERED OVER  THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY TO TUESDAY...AS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM
THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND PLAINS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP DOWN
STREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER THE LONG TERM STRETCH.

A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WAS ADDED TO THE GRIDDED FORECASTS WED
PM INTO WED NIGHT NW OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPS WILL START OUT COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE CLOSE OF THE WEEKEND
WITH 50S FOR LOWS...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M70S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...H850 TEMP MODERATE TO +13C TO +14C WITH DECENT
MIXING...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF
UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE U70S TO L80S
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.  LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 50S TO L60S.  WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST AFTERNOON WITH
M70S TO L80S FOR HIGHS...AND HUMIDITY LEVELS CREEPING UP WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED AT
THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...WITH TEMPO GROUPS INDICATING PERIODS OF PRIMARILY MVFR
AT THE TAF SITES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS WITH EVEN SOME
IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT KGFL AND KPSF. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE GENERALLY
LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS FLYING CONDITIONS FALL TO MVFR/IFR. AT THIS TIME
THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR IFR IS AT KGFL AND KPSF...ALTHOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF IFR STRATUS AT KALB AND KPOU AFTER 06Z
AS WELL. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE AFTER 06Z AT KGFL AND
KALB...BUT CONTINUE TO LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AT
KPOU AND KPSF. KEPT IFR STRATUS OUT OF KALB AND KPOU FOR THIS TAF
ISSUANCE AS CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD AFTER 12Z FRIDAY WITH A GRADUALLY DECREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL TREND TOWARDS CALM BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FRIDAY AROUND 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DAMP FOR FRIDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...GENERALLY OVER
60 PERCENT...SOMETIMES CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT...DUE TO THE WET WEATHER
AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

THE WIND WILL VARIABLE TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5-10 MPH TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.

A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY.

AS OF 400 AM...RADAR INDICATES THAT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO THREE
INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN SINCE WEDNESDAY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO THE SARATOGA REGION. GENERALLY A THIRD OF AN INCH TO ONE AND A
HALF INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SHOWERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF TO ONE INCH IN
MANY AREAS...BUT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF ANOTHER TWO TO THREE INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE.

DUE TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS BEFORE THE
RAIN BEGAN...THE IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL GENERALLY BE
MINOR AND NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED. BE.

HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT THESE SHOULD BE
LIGHT.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND AND FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 211735
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
135 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS
EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE
COAST TOMORROW WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES
OVER THE AREA. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT...LATEST REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS AREAS OF
MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REGION. THE BIGGEST CONCENTRATION IS WEST OF THE AREA TOWARDS
CENTRAL NY...THE FINGER LAKES...AND THE SOUTHERN TIER. OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN NY AND
EVENTUALLY WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST TO EAST...AS SHOWN IN
THE LATEST 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE.  ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND IF THIS OCCURS OVER ANY AREAS
THAT SAW SIGNIFICANT RAIN LAST NIGHT /SUCH AS THE SACANDAGA
AREA/...THEN THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR FLOODING...ESP OF LOW LYING
AND URBAN AREAS. OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE THE ON AND OFF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY OVER THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST A FEW BREAKS OR LIGHTENING UP OF THE
SKIES...ALONG WITH CONTINUED MUGGY CONDITIONS.

TEMPS ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY AND WILL EITHER
HOLD STEADY OR ONLY RISE A DEGREE OR TWO MORE. HIGHS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S...WITH UPPER 60S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...WITH
DRIER AIR WORKING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM A SPRAWLING
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. POPS ARE SLOWLY
FORECAST TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
ON SATURDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS RISING TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AS WE ENTER THE LAST WEEK OF AUGUST.

WPC GUIDANCE/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES/GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SRN QUEBEC AND
NRN NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT...AND BE CENTERED OVER  THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY TO TUESDAY...AS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM
THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND PLAINS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP DOWN
STREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER THE LONG TERM STRETCH.

A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WAS ADDED TO THE GRIDDED FORECASTS WED
PM INTO WED NIGHT NW OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPS WILL START OUT COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE CLOSE OF THE WEEKEND
WITH 50S FOR LOWS...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M70S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...H850 TEMP MODERATE TO +13C TO +14C WITH DECENT
MIXING...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF
UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE U70S TO L80S
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.  LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 50S TO L60S.  WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST AFTERNOON WITH
M70S TO L80S FOR HIGHS...AND HUMIDITY LEVELS CREEPING UP WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED AT
THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...WITH TEMPO GROUPS INDICATING PERIODS OF PRIMARILY MVFR
AT THE TAF SITES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS WITH EVEN SOME
IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT KGFL AND KPSF. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE GENERALLY
LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS FLYING CONDITIONS FALL TO MVFR/IFR. AT THIS TIME
THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR IFR IS AT KGFL AND KPSF...ALTHOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF IFR STRATUS AT KALB AND KPOU AFTER 06Z
AS WELL. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE AFTER 06Z AT KGFL AND
KALB...BUT CONTINUE TO LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AT
KPOU AND KPSF. KEPT IFR STRATUS OUT OF KALB AND KPOU FOR THIS TAF
ISSUANCE AS CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD AFTER 12Z FRIDAY WITH A GRADUALLY DECREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL TREND TOWARDS CALM BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FRIDAY AROUND 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DAMP FOR FRIDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...GENERALLY OVER
60 PERCENT...SOMETIMES CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT...DUE TO THE WET WEATHER
AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

THE WIND WILL VARIABLE TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5-10 MPH TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.

A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY.

AS OF 400 AM...RADAR INDICATES THAT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO THREE
INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN SINCE WEDNESDAY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO THE SARATOGA REGION. GENERALLY A THIRD OF AN INCH TO ONE AND A
HALF INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SHOWERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF TO ONE INCH IN
MANY AREAS...BUT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF ANOTHER TWO TO THREE INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE.

DUE TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS BEFORE THE
RAIN BEGAN...THE IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL GENERALLY BE
MINOR AND NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED. BE.

HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT THESE SHOULD BE
LIGHT.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND AND FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM








000
FXUS61 KBTV 211734
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
134 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 104 PM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST STILL GENERALLY HOLDING UP
WELL...WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS.

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS FROM THIS MORNING STILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREENS. MEANWHILE...CLUSTERS OF HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY DOWN INTO CENTRAL NY...IN A MODEST TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS /SBCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG PER 16Z LAPS ANALYSES/. THIS
HAS BEEN DEPICTED WELL BY 12Z WRF-ARW AND THE BTV-4 SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY. EXPECT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT WITH ACTIVITY MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO ESSEX COUNTY NY AND RUTLAND COUNTY VT BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE MINOR
FLOODING GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES (PW`S 1.6-1.8") AND
TALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES. ALL THIS IS COVERED WELL IN GOING
FORECAST AND HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS
IN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND SOUTHERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO
TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. STILL COULD BE A CHANCE FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND SOUTHWEST VERMONT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN GFS MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER. HAVE
KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY... BUT EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS SOUTH FROM
CANADA. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AND
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY QUIET AND STRAIGHT FORWARD FCST FOR
SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...WHICH WL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS
CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS
WEDS INTO THURS OF NEXT WEEK...WITH REGARDS TO NORTHERN STREAM
TROF AND ASSOCIATED POSITION OF SFC COLD FRNT. GIVEN THE RECENT
TRENDS THIS SUMMER FOR LESS WAA DEVELOPING AHEAD OF TROF AND
FASTER SFC COLD FRNT ARRIVAL TIMES...WL USE THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR
WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD. THIS SUPPORTS A FLATTER MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE AND WARMEST 85H TEMPS STAYING JUST TO OUR SOUTH...ALONG WITH
THE BEST INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING
BTWN 14-16C BY 00Z WEDS...EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH
MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE WARMER CPV/SLV ON TUES. IN
ADDITION...SOUTHERLY FLW WL INCREASE THE SFC DWPTS INTO THE
60S...WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS ANTICIPATED. LATEST GFS/ECMWF
SHOW SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED 5H VORTS SLIDING JUST TO OUR NORTH ON
TUES...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM NEAR THE BORDER
ON TUES. WL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM...GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM RIDGE ACRS OUR CWA. THE COMBINATION OF POTENT 5H
VORT IN DEVELOPING S/W TROF ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND A SFC COLD
FRNT WL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BY WEDS. COOLER
TEMPS WL ALSO ARRIVE BY WEDS/THURS...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
FALLING BACK BTWN 8-10C BY 00Z THURS. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT IF THE FRNT IS SLOWER AND THE GFS
THERMAL FIELDS ARE REALIZED THEN TEMPS WEDS COULD BE WELL INTO THE
80S TO LOWER 90S. I WOULD EXPECT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WITH
POSITION OF TROF DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTH OF RIDGE/ASSOCIATED
THERMAL PROFILES BY THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY/MONDAY WL
FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD
DAYS...RESULTING IN TYPICAL MID AUGUST WEATHER FOR OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY....CURRENTLY SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORMS ARE
QUICKLY DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK WHILE AN
AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN (ASSOCIATED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS) IS MOVING
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT. SOME MVFR CEILINGS TUCKED UP ALONG
THE GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL AS WELL. THROUGH 00Z, ANTICIPATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BUBBLE UP MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK, AFFECTING MSS, SLK AND PBG. HAVE CARRIED VCTS
FOR THESE LOCATIONS, WITH SOME TEMPO GROUPS WHERE I`M A LITTLE
MORE CONFIDENT ON TIMING. FOR VERMONT WENT MAINLY VCSH AS NOT
ANTICIPATING AS HIGH OF A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

FUZZY ON THE DETAILS ON WHAT COULD HAPPEN OVERNIGHT. SUSPECT THERE
WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND, THOUGH CHANCES ARE BELOW 50% SO THEY
WON`T SHOW IN THE TAFS. ALSO ANTICIPATE CEILINGS TO DROP INTO THE
MVFR RANGE IN MANY AREAS. COULD ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT FOG REDUCING
VISIBILITY TO 4-6SM.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. JUST CALLED IT `VCSH` IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
VFR WITH THE FOLLOWING EXCEPTIONS -- BRIEF MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. LOCALIZED IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG (MAINLY AN
ISSUE FOR MPV AND SLK).

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...NASH






000
FXUS61 KBTV 211734
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
134 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 104 PM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST STILL GENERALLY HOLDING UP
WELL...WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS.

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS FROM THIS MORNING STILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREENS. MEANWHILE...CLUSTERS OF HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY DOWN INTO CENTRAL NY...IN A MODEST TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS /SBCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG PER 16Z LAPS ANALYSES/. THIS
HAS BEEN DEPICTED WELL BY 12Z WRF-ARW AND THE BTV-4 SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY. EXPECT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT WITH ACTIVITY MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO ESSEX COUNTY NY AND RUTLAND COUNTY VT BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE MINOR
FLOODING GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES (PW`S 1.6-1.8") AND
TALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES. ALL THIS IS COVERED WELL IN GOING
FORECAST AND HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS
IN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND SOUTHERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO
TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. STILL COULD BE A CHANCE FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND SOUTHWEST VERMONT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN GFS MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER. HAVE
KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY... BUT EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS SOUTH FROM
CANADA. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AND
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY QUIET AND STRAIGHT FORWARD FCST FOR
SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...WHICH WL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS
CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS
WEDS INTO THURS OF NEXT WEEK...WITH REGARDS TO NORTHERN STREAM
TROF AND ASSOCIATED POSITION OF SFC COLD FRNT. GIVEN THE RECENT
TRENDS THIS SUMMER FOR LESS WAA DEVELOPING AHEAD OF TROF AND
FASTER SFC COLD FRNT ARRIVAL TIMES...WL USE THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR
WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD. THIS SUPPORTS A FLATTER MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE AND WARMEST 85H TEMPS STAYING JUST TO OUR SOUTH...ALONG WITH
THE BEST INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING
BTWN 14-16C BY 00Z WEDS...EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH
MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE WARMER CPV/SLV ON TUES. IN
ADDITION...SOUTHERLY FLW WL INCREASE THE SFC DWPTS INTO THE
60S...WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS ANTICIPATED. LATEST GFS/ECMWF
SHOW SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED 5H VORTS SLIDING JUST TO OUR NORTH ON
TUES...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM NEAR THE BORDER
ON TUES. WL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM...GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM RIDGE ACRS OUR CWA. THE COMBINATION OF POTENT 5H
VORT IN DEVELOPING S/W TROF ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND A SFC COLD
FRNT WL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BY WEDS. COOLER
TEMPS WL ALSO ARRIVE BY WEDS/THURS...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
FALLING BACK BTWN 8-10C BY 00Z THURS. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT IF THE FRNT IS SLOWER AND THE GFS
THERMAL FIELDS ARE REALIZED THEN TEMPS WEDS COULD BE WELL INTO THE
80S TO LOWER 90S. I WOULD EXPECT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WITH
POSITION OF TROF DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTH OF RIDGE/ASSOCIATED
THERMAL PROFILES BY THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY/MONDAY WL
FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD
DAYS...RESULTING IN TYPICAL MID AUGUST WEATHER FOR OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY....CURRENTLY SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORMS ARE
QUICKLY DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK WHILE AN
AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN (ASSOCIATED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS) IS MOVING
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT. SOME MVFR CEILINGS TUCKED UP ALONG
THE GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL AS WELL. THROUGH 00Z, ANTICIPATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BUBBLE UP MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK, AFFECTING MSS, SLK AND PBG. HAVE CARRIED VCTS
FOR THESE LOCATIONS, WITH SOME TEMPO GROUPS WHERE I`M A LITTLE
MORE CONFIDENT ON TIMING. FOR VERMONT WENT MAINLY VCSH AS NOT
ANTICIPATING AS HIGH OF A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

FUZZY ON THE DETAILS ON WHAT COULD HAPPEN OVERNIGHT. SUSPECT THERE
WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND, THOUGH CHANCES ARE BELOW 50% SO THEY
WON`T SHOW IN THE TAFS. ALSO ANTICIPATE CEILINGS TO DROP INTO THE
MVFR RANGE IN MANY AREAS. COULD ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT FOG REDUCING
VISIBILITY TO 4-6SM.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. JUST CALLED IT `VCSH` IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
VFR WITH THE FOLLOWING EXCEPTIONS -- BRIEF MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. LOCALIZED IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG (MAINLY AN
ISSUE FOR MPV AND SLK).

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...NASH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 211704
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
104 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 104 PM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST STILL GENERALLY HOLDING UP
WELL...WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS.

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS FROM THIS MORNING STILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREENS. MEANWHILE...CLUSTERS OF HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY DOWN INTO CENTRAL NY...IN A MODEST TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS /SBCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG PER 16Z LAPS ANALYSES/. THIS
HAS BEEN DEPICTED WELL BY 12Z WRF-ARW AND THE BTV-4 SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY. EXPECT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT WITH ACTIVITY MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO ESSEX COUNTY NY AND RUTLAND COUNTY VT BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE MINOR
FLOODING GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES (PW`S 1.6-1.8") AND
TALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES. ALL THIS IS COVERED WELL IN GOING
FORECAST AND HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS
IN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND SOUTHERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO
TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. STILL COULD BE A CHANCE FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND SOUTHWEST VERMONT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN GFS MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER. HAVE
KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY... BUT EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS SOUTH FROM
CANADA. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AND
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY QUIET AND STRAIGHT FORWARD FCST FOR
SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...WHICH WL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS
CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS
WEDS INTO THURS OF NEXT WEEK...WITH REGARDS TO NORTHERN STREAM
TROF AND ASSOCIATED POSITION OF SFC COLD FRNT. GIVEN THE RECENT
TRENDS THIS SUMMER FOR LESS WAA DEVELOPING AHEAD OF TROF AND
FASTER SFC COLD FRNT ARRIVAL TIMES...WL USE THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR
WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD. THIS SUPPORTS A FLATTER MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE AND WARMEST 85H TEMPS STAYING JUST TO OUR SOUTH...ALONG WITH
THE BEST INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING
BTWN 14-16C BY 00Z WEDS...EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH
MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE WARMER CPV/SLV ON TUES. IN
ADDITION...SOUTHERLY FLW WL INCREASE THE SFC DWPTS INTO THE
60S...WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS ANTICIPATED. LATEST GFS/ECMWF
SHOW SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED 5H VORTS SLIDING JUST TO OUR NORTH ON
TUES...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM NEAR THE BORDER
ON TUES. WL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM...GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM RIDGE ACRS OUR CWA. THE COMBINATION OF POTENT 5H
VORT IN DEVELOPING S/W TROF ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND A SFC COLD
FRNT WL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BY WEDS. COOLER
TEMPS WL ALSO ARRIVE BY WEDS/THURS...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
FALLING BACK BTWN 8-10C BY 00Z THURS. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT IF THE FRNT IS SLOWER AND THE GFS
THERMAL FIELDS ARE REALIZED THEN TEMPS WEDS COULD BE WELL INTO THE
80S TO LOWER 90S. I WOULD EXPECT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WITH
POSITION OF TROF DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTH OF RIDGE/ASSOCIATED
THERMAL PROFILES BY THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY/MONDAY WL
FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD
DAYS...RESULTING IN TYPICAL MID AUGUST WEATHER FOR OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY....CRNT RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY/CPV ATTM...SLOWLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL VT. VIS/CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRECIP IS MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. WL MENTION MAINLY VFR IN THE PREVAILING GROUP
WITH TEMPO FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM BTWN 12-15Z.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WL BE POSSIBLE
ACRS NORTHERN NY TAF SITES THIS AFTN...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
IN THE HEAVIER STORMS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS. A SLOW CLRING TREND
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 21Z...WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS. THINKING CLOUDS AND
WINDS WL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG/BR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MORNING FOG WL BE LIKELY AT SLK/MPV
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BOTH SAT AND SUNDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-
13Z. LOOK FOR MAINLY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER VALUES AT MSS AND RUTLAND.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER









000
FXUS61 KBTV 211704
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
104 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 104 PM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST STILL GENERALLY HOLDING UP
WELL...WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS.

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS FROM THIS MORNING STILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREENS. MEANWHILE...CLUSTERS OF HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY DOWN INTO CENTRAL NY...IN A MODEST TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS /SBCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG PER 16Z LAPS ANALYSES/. THIS
HAS BEEN DEPICTED WELL BY 12Z WRF-ARW AND THE BTV-4 SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY. EXPECT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT WITH ACTIVITY MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO ESSEX COUNTY NY AND RUTLAND COUNTY VT BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE MINOR
FLOODING GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES (PW`S 1.6-1.8") AND
TALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES. ALL THIS IS COVERED WELL IN GOING
FORECAST AND HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS
IN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND SOUTHERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO
TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. STILL COULD BE A CHANCE FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND SOUTHWEST VERMONT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN GFS MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER. HAVE
KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY... BUT EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS SOUTH FROM
CANADA. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AND
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY QUIET AND STRAIGHT FORWARD FCST FOR
SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...WHICH WL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS
CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS
WEDS INTO THURS OF NEXT WEEK...WITH REGARDS TO NORTHERN STREAM
TROF AND ASSOCIATED POSITION OF SFC COLD FRNT. GIVEN THE RECENT
TRENDS THIS SUMMER FOR LESS WAA DEVELOPING AHEAD OF TROF AND
FASTER SFC COLD FRNT ARRIVAL TIMES...WL USE THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR
WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD. THIS SUPPORTS A FLATTER MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE AND WARMEST 85H TEMPS STAYING JUST TO OUR SOUTH...ALONG WITH
THE BEST INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING
BTWN 14-16C BY 00Z WEDS...EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH
MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE WARMER CPV/SLV ON TUES. IN
ADDITION...SOUTHERLY FLW WL INCREASE THE SFC DWPTS INTO THE
60S...WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS ANTICIPATED. LATEST GFS/ECMWF
SHOW SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED 5H VORTS SLIDING JUST TO OUR NORTH ON
TUES...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM NEAR THE BORDER
ON TUES. WL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM...GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM RIDGE ACRS OUR CWA. THE COMBINATION OF POTENT 5H
VORT IN DEVELOPING S/W TROF ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND A SFC COLD
FRNT WL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BY WEDS. COOLER
TEMPS WL ALSO ARRIVE BY WEDS/THURS...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
FALLING BACK BTWN 8-10C BY 00Z THURS. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT IF THE FRNT IS SLOWER AND THE GFS
THERMAL FIELDS ARE REALIZED THEN TEMPS WEDS COULD BE WELL INTO THE
80S TO LOWER 90S. I WOULD EXPECT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WITH
POSITION OF TROF DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTH OF RIDGE/ASSOCIATED
THERMAL PROFILES BY THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY/MONDAY WL
FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD
DAYS...RESULTING IN TYPICAL MID AUGUST WEATHER FOR OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY....CRNT RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY/CPV ATTM...SLOWLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL VT. VIS/CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRECIP IS MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. WL MENTION MAINLY VFR IN THE PREVAILING GROUP
WITH TEMPO FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM BTWN 12-15Z.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WL BE POSSIBLE
ACRS NORTHERN NY TAF SITES THIS AFTN...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
IN THE HEAVIER STORMS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS. A SLOW CLRING TREND
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 21Z...WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS. THINKING CLOUDS AND
WINDS WL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG/BR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MORNING FOG WL BE LIKELY AT SLK/MPV
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BOTH SAT AND SUNDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-
13Z. LOOK FOR MAINLY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER VALUES AT MSS AND RUTLAND.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER










000
FXUS61 KALY 211423
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1023 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. THIS WEEKEND...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT ALL
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. STILL...LIKELY THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY THEIR WITH
SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. NEW
ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL NY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TRACK EAST AFFECTING MUCH OF THE AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. SOME DECENT INSTABILITY INDICATED ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY UPSTREAM AND PWATS ARE HIGH. ADDING HEAVY RAIN
TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON SINCE RAIN LAST NIGHT WAR LOCALLY
HEAVY...SO CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE SOME URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM ISSUES. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES...SO SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO RAIN CHANCES...
TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

IT WILL BE CLOUDY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...WITH
DRIER AIR WORKING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM A SPRAWLING
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. POPS ARE SLOWLY
FORECAST TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
ON SATURDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS RISING TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AS WE ENTER THE LAST WEEK OF AUGUST.

WPC GUIDANCE/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES/GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SRN QUEBEC AND
NRN NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT...AND BE CENTERED OVER  THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY TO TUESDAY...AS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM
THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND PLAINS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP DOWN
STREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER THE LONG TERM STRETCH.

A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WAS ADDED TO THE GRIDDED FORECASTS WED
PM INTO WED NIGHT NW OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPS WILL START OUT COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE CLOSE OF THE WEEKEND
WITH 50S FOR LOWS...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M70S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...H850 TEMP MODERATE TO +13C TO +14C WITH DECENT
MIXING...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF
UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE U70S TO L80S
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.  LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 50S TO L60S.  WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST AFTERNOON WITH
M70S TO L80S FOR HIGHS...AND HUMIDITY LEVELS CREEPING UP WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL IMPACT THE
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS.

A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE LATE THIS MORNING AT
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF. THE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY FROM AT KGFL
AS BANDS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERSIST AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CNTRL AND
ERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING MUCH OF THE
MORNING ESPECIALLY FROM KALB NORTH AND EAST. OTHER SHOWERS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA BTWN 21Z AND 00Z/FRI LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR
LEVELS AGAIN AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN TERMS
OF CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF AND POSSIBLY KGFL.

SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THE PROBS ARE STILL
BELOW 50 PERCENT...SO WE WILL LET LATER TAF ISSUANCES ADDRESS THE
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES. THE THREAT PERIOD LOOKS LIKE 20Z TO 04Z/FRI.

THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5-8 KTS. EXPECT LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
TONIGHT AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DAMP FOR FRIDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...GENERALLY OVER
60 PERCENT...SOMETIMES CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT...DUE TO THE WET WEATHER
AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

THE WIND WILL VARIABLE TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5-10 MPH TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.

A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY.

AS OF 400 AM...RADAR INDICATES THAT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO THREE
INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN SINCE WEDNESDAY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO THE SARATOGA REGION. GENERALLY A THIRD OF AN INCH TO ONE AND A
HALF INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SHOWERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF TO ONE INCH IN
MANY AREAS...BUT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF ANOTHER TWO TO THREE INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE.

DUE TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS BEFORE THE
RAIN BEGAN...THE IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL GENERALLY BE
MINOR AND NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED. BE.

HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT THESE SHOULD BE
LIGHT.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND AND FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM







000
FXUS61 KALY 211423
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1023 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. THIS WEEKEND...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT ALL
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. STILL...LIKELY THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY THEIR WITH
SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. NEW
ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL NY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TRACK EAST AFFECTING MUCH OF THE AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. SOME DECENT INSTABILITY INDICATED ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY UPSTREAM AND PWATS ARE HIGH. ADDING HEAVY RAIN
TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON SINCE RAIN LAST NIGHT WAR LOCALLY
HEAVY...SO CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE SOME URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM ISSUES. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES...SO SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO RAIN CHANCES...
TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

IT WILL BE CLOUDY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...WITH
DRIER AIR WORKING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM A SPRAWLING
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. POPS ARE SLOWLY
FORECAST TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
ON SATURDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS RISING TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AS WE ENTER THE LAST WEEK OF AUGUST.

WPC GUIDANCE/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES/GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SRN QUEBEC AND
NRN NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT...AND BE CENTERED OVER  THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY TO TUESDAY...AS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM
THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND PLAINS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP DOWN
STREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER THE LONG TERM STRETCH.

A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WAS ADDED TO THE GRIDDED FORECASTS WED
PM INTO WED NIGHT NW OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPS WILL START OUT COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE CLOSE OF THE WEEKEND
WITH 50S FOR LOWS...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M70S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...H850 TEMP MODERATE TO +13C TO +14C WITH DECENT
MIXING...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF
UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE U70S TO L80S
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.  LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 50S TO L60S.  WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST AFTERNOON WITH
M70S TO L80S FOR HIGHS...AND HUMIDITY LEVELS CREEPING UP WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL IMPACT THE
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS.

A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE LATE THIS MORNING AT
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF. THE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY FROM AT KGFL
AS BANDS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERSIST AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CNTRL AND
ERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING MUCH OF THE
MORNING ESPECIALLY FROM KALB NORTH AND EAST. OTHER SHOWERS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA BTWN 21Z AND 00Z/FRI LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR
LEVELS AGAIN AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN TERMS
OF CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF AND POSSIBLY KGFL.

SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THE PROBS ARE STILL
BELOW 50 PERCENT...SO WE WILL LET LATER TAF ISSUANCES ADDRESS THE
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES. THE THREAT PERIOD LOOKS LIKE 20Z TO 04Z/FRI.

THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5-8 KTS. EXPECT LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
TONIGHT AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DAMP FOR FRIDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...GENERALLY OVER
60 PERCENT...SOMETIMES CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT...DUE TO THE WET WEATHER
AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

THE WIND WILL VARIABLE TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5-10 MPH TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.

A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY.

AS OF 400 AM...RADAR INDICATES THAT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO THREE
INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN SINCE WEDNESDAY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO THE SARATOGA REGION. GENERALLY A THIRD OF AN INCH TO ONE AND A
HALF INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SHOWERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF TO ONE INCH IN
MANY AREAS...BUT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF ANOTHER TWO TO THREE INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE.

DUE TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS BEFORE THE
RAIN BEGAN...THE IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL GENERALLY BE
MINOR AND NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED. BE.

HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT THESE SHOULD BE
LIGHT.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND AND FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM








000
FXUS61 KBTV 211412
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1012 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1012 AM EDT THURSDAY...GIVEN CURRENT RADAR PRESENTATION I`VE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST POPS FOR AREAL COVERAGE WORDING AND
ALSO TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND SOUTHERN VT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN VT WITH MORE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. THAT BAND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AND WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO.

THERE IS AN ONGOING AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
EASTERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO TO NEAR SYR...HAVING DEVELOPED IN
AN AREA OF BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST. ANTICIPATE AT LEAST MODEST
INSTABILITY WITH RE- DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTN...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO SOUTHERN VT.
AIRMASS IS RATHER SATURATED WITH PWS ON MORNING ALB RAOB OF 1.6"
AND AFTN BUFKIT PROFILES DEPICT TALL- SKINNY CAPE PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT A RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ADDED ENHANCED WORDING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PTD TO SLK TO RUT...GENERALLY
CONSISTENT WITH WHERE HI-RES REFLECTIVITY WANTS TO RE-DEVELOP
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. THERE IS A BIT MORE FLOW IN THE COLUMN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY SO STORMS SHOULD MOVE A LITTLE QUICKER.
LIKELY LESS LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FOOTPRINTS...BUT COULD SEE
LOCALIZED AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING GIVEN THAT SOME OF THESE SAME
AREAS RECEIVED RAINFALL YESTERDAY.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO PERSIST TODAY AS WELL KEEPING TEMPS FROM CLIMBING
SIGNIFICANTLY. I LOWERED HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO
TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. STILL COULD BE A CHANCE FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND SOUTHWEST VERMONT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN GFS MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER. HAVE
KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY... BUT EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS SOUTH FROM
CANADA. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AND
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY QUIET AND STRAIGHT FORWARD FCST FOR
SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...WHICH WL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS
CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS
WEDS INTO THURS OF NEXT WEEK...WITH REGARDS TO NORTHERN STREAM
TROF AND ASSOCIATED POSITION OF SFC COLD FRNT. GIVEN THE RECENT
TRENDS THIS SUMMER FOR LESS WAA DEVELOPING AHEAD OF TROF AND
FASTER SFC COLD FRNT ARRIVAL TIMES...WL USE THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR
WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD. THIS SUPPORTS A FLATTER MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE AND WARMEST 85H TEMPS STAYING JUST TO OUR SOUTH...ALONG WITH
THE BEST INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING
BTWN 14-16C BY 00Z WEDS...EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH
MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE WARMER CPV/SLV ON TUES. IN
ADDITION...SOUTHERLY FLW WL INCREASE THE SFC DWPTS INTO THE
60S...WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS ANTICIPATED. LATEST GFS/ECMWF
SHOW SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED 5H VORTS SLIDING JUST TO OUR NORTH ON
TUES...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM NEAR THE BORDER
ON TUES. WL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM...GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM RIDGE ACRS OUR CWA. THE COMBINATION OF POTENT 5H
VORT IN DEVELOPING S/W TROF ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND A SFC COLD
FRNT WL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BY WEDS. COOLER
TEMPS WL ALSO ARRIVE BY WEDS/THURS...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
FALLING BACK BTWN 8-10C BY 00Z THURS. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT IF THE FRNT IS SLOWER AND THE GFS
THERMAL FIELDS ARE REALIZED THEN TEMPS WEDS COULD BE WELL INTO THE
80S TO LOWER 90S. I WOULD EXPECT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WITH
POSITION OF TROF DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTH OF RIDGE/ASSOCIATED
THERMAL PROFILES BY THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY/MONDAY WL
FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD
DAYS...RESULTING IN TYPICAL MID AUGUST WEATHER FOR OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY....CRNT RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY/CPV ATTM...SLOWLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL VT. VIS/CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRECIP IS MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. WL MENTION MAINLY VFR IN THE PREVAILING GROUP
WITH TEMPO FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM BTWN 12-15Z.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WL BE POSSIBLE
ACRS NORTHERN NY TAF SITES THIS AFTN...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
IN THE HEAVIER STORMS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS. A SLOW CLRING TREND
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 21Z...WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS. THINKING CLOUDS AND
WINDS WL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG/BR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MORNING FOG WL BE LIKELY AT SLK/MPV
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BOTH SAT AND SUNDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-
13Z. LOOK FOR MAINLY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER VALUES AT MSS AND RUTLAND.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER











000
FXUS61 KBTV 211412
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1012 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1012 AM EDT THURSDAY...GIVEN CURRENT RADAR PRESENTATION I`VE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST POPS FOR AREAL COVERAGE WORDING AND
ALSO TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND SOUTHERN VT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN VT WITH MORE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. THAT BAND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AND WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO.

THERE IS AN ONGOING AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
EASTERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO TO NEAR SYR...HAVING DEVELOPED IN
AN AREA OF BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST. ANTICIPATE AT LEAST MODEST
INSTABILITY WITH RE- DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTN...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO SOUTHERN VT.
AIRMASS IS RATHER SATURATED WITH PWS ON MORNING ALB RAOB OF 1.6"
AND AFTN BUFKIT PROFILES DEPICT TALL- SKINNY CAPE PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT A RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ADDED ENHANCED WORDING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PTD TO SLK TO RUT...GENERALLY
CONSISTENT WITH WHERE HI-RES REFLECTIVITY WANTS TO RE-DEVELOP
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. THERE IS A BIT MORE FLOW IN THE COLUMN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY SO STORMS SHOULD MOVE A LITTLE QUICKER.
LIKELY LESS LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FOOTPRINTS...BUT COULD SEE
LOCALIZED AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING GIVEN THAT SOME OF THESE SAME
AREAS RECEIVED RAINFALL YESTERDAY.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO PERSIST TODAY AS WELL KEEPING TEMPS FROM CLIMBING
SIGNIFICANTLY. I LOWERED HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO
TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. STILL COULD BE A CHANCE FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND SOUTHWEST VERMONT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN GFS MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER. HAVE
KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY... BUT EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS SOUTH FROM
CANADA. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AND
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY QUIET AND STRAIGHT FORWARD FCST FOR
SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...WHICH WL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS
CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS
WEDS INTO THURS OF NEXT WEEK...WITH REGARDS TO NORTHERN STREAM
TROF AND ASSOCIATED POSITION OF SFC COLD FRNT. GIVEN THE RECENT
TRENDS THIS SUMMER FOR LESS WAA DEVELOPING AHEAD OF TROF AND
FASTER SFC COLD FRNT ARRIVAL TIMES...WL USE THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR
WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD. THIS SUPPORTS A FLATTER MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE AND WARMEST 85H TEMPS STAYING JUST TO OUR SOUTH...ALONG WITH
THE BEST INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING
BTWN 14-16C BY 00Z WEDS...EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH
MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE WARMER CPV/SLV ON TUES. IN
ADDITION...SOUTHERLY FLW WL INCREASE THE SFC DWPTS INTO THE
60S...WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS ANTICIPATED. LATEST GFS/ECMWF
SHOW SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED 5H VORTS SLIDING JUST TO OUR NORTH ON
TUES...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM NEAR THE BORDER
ON TUES. WL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM...GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM RIDGE ACRS OUR CWA. THE COMBINATION OF POTENT 5H
VORT IN DEVELOPING S/W TROF ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND A SFC COLD
FRNT WL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BY WEDS. COOLER
TEMPS WL ALSO ARRIVE BY WEDS/THURS...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
FALLING BACK BTWN 8-10C BY 00Z THURS. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT IF THE FRNT IS SLOWER AND THE GFS
THERMAL FIELDS ARE REALIZED THEN TEMPS WEDS COULD BE WELL INTO THE
80S TO LOWER 90S. I WOULD EXPECT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WITH
POSITION OF TROF DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTH OF RIDGE/ASSOCIATED
THERMAL PROFILES BY THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY/MONDAY WL
FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD
DAYS...RESULTING IN TYPICAL MID AUGUST WEATHER FOR OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY....CRNT RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY/CPV ATTM...SLOWLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL VT. VIS/CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRECIP IS MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. WL MENTION MAINLY VFR IN THE PREVAILING GROUP
WITH TEMPO FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM BTWN 12-15Z.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WL BE POSSIBLE
ACRS NORTHERN NY TAF SITES THIS AFTN...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
IN THE HEAVIER STORMS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS. A SLOW CLRING TREND
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 21Z...WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS. THINKING CLOUDS AND
WINDS WL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG/BR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MORNING FOG WL BE LIKELY AT SLK/MPV
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BOTH SAT AND SUNDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-
13Z. LOOK FOR MAINLY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER VALUES AT MSS AND RUTLAND.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER











000
FXUS61 KBTV 211412
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1012 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1012 AM EDT THURSDAY...GIVEN CURRENT RADAR PRESENTATION I`VE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST POPS FOR AREAL COVERAGE WORDING AND
ALSO TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND SOUTHERN VT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN VT WITH MORE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. THAT BAND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AND WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO.

THERE IS AN ONGOING AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
EASTERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO TO NEAR SYR...HAVING DEVELOPED IN
AN AREA OF BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST. ANTICIPATE AT LEAST MODEST
INSTABILITY WITH RE- DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTN...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO SOUTHERN VT.
AIRMASS IS RATHER SATURATED WITH PWS ON MORNING ALB RAOB OF 1.6"
AND AFTN BUFKIT PROFILES DEPICT TALL- SKINNY CAPE PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT A RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ADDED ENHANCED WORDING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PTD TO SLK TO RUT...GENERALLY
CONSISTENT WITH WHERE HI-RES REFLECTIVITY WANTS TO RE-DEVELOP
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. THERE IS A BIT MORE FLOW IN THE COLUMN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY SO STORMS SHOULD MOVE A LITTLE QUICKER.
LIKELY LESS LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FOOTPRINTS...BUT COULD SEE
LOCALIZED AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING GIVEN THAT SOME OF THESE SAME
AREAS RECEIVED RAINFALL YESTERDAY.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO PERSIST TODAY AS WELL KEEPING TEMPS FROM CLIMBING
SIGNIFICANTLY. I LOWERED HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO
TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. STILL COULD BE A CHANCE FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND SOUTHWEST VERMONT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN GFS MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER. HAVE
KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY... BUT EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS SOUTH FROM
CANADA. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AND
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY QUIET AND STRAIGHT FORWARD FCST FOR
SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...WHICH WL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS
CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS
WEDS INTO THURS OF NEXT WEEK...WITH REGARDS TO NORTHERN STREAM
TROF AND ASSOCIATED POSITION OF SFC COLD FRNT. GIVEN THE RECENT
TRENDS THIS SUMMER FOR LESS WAA DEVELOPING AHEAD OF TROF AND
FASTER SFC COLD FRNT ARRIVAL TIMES...WL USE THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR
WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD. THIS SUPPORTS A FLATTER MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE AND WARMEST 85H TEMPS STAYING JUST TO OUR SOUTH...ALONG WITH
THE BEST INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING
BTWN 14-16C BY 00Z WEDS...EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH
MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE WARMER CPV/SLV ON TUES. IN
ADDITION...SOUTHERLY FLW WL INCREASE THE SFC DWPTS INTO THE
60S...WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS ANTICIPATED. LATEST GFS/ECMWF
SHOW SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED 5H VORTS SLIDING JUST TO OUR NORTH ON
TUES...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM NEAR THE BORDER
ON TUES. WL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM...GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM RIDGE ACRS OUR CWA. THE COMBINATION OF POTENT 5H
VORT IN DEVELOPING S/W TROF ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND A SFC COLD
FRNT WL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BY WEDS. COOLER
TEMPS WL ALSO ARRIVE BY WEDS/THURS...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
FALLING BACK BTWN 8-10C BY 00Z THURS. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT IF THE FRNT IS SLOWER AND THE GFS
THERMAL FIELDS ARE REALIZED THEN TEMPS WEDS COULD BE WELL INTO THE
80S TO LOWER 90S. I WOULD EXPECT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WITH
POSITION OF TROF DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTH OF RIDGE/ASSOCIATED
THERMAL PROFILES BY THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY/MONDAY WL
FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD
DAYS...RESULTING IN TYPICAL MID AUGUST WEATHER FOR OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY....CRNT RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY/CPV ATTM...SLOWLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL VT. VIS/CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRECIP IS MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. WL MENTION MAINLY VFR IN THE PREVAILING GROUP
WITH TEMPO FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM BTWN 12-15Z.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WL BE POSSIBLE
ACRS NORTHERN NY TAF SITES THIS AFTN...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
IN THE HEAVIER STORMS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS. A SLOW CLRING TREND
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 21Z...WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS. THINKING CLOUDS AND
WINDS WL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG/BR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MORNING FOG WL BE LIKELY AT SLK/MPV
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BOTH SAT AND SUNDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-
13Z. LOOK FOR MAINLY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER VALUES AT MSS AND RUTLAND.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER











000
FXUS61 KBTV 211412
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1012 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1012 AM EDT THURSDAY...GIVEN CURRENT RADAR PRESENTATION I`VE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST POPS FOR AREAL COVERAGE WORDING AND
ALSO TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND SOUTHERN VT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN VT WITH MORE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. THAT BAND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AND WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO.

THERE IS AN ONGOING AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
EASTERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO TO NEAR SYR...HAVING DEVELOPED IN
AN AREA OF BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST. ANTICIPATE AT LEAST MODEST
INSTABILITY WITH RE- DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTN...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN NY INTO SOUTHERN VT.
AIRMASS IS RATHER SATURATED WITH PWS ON MORNING ALB RAOB OF 1.6"
AND AFTN BUFKIT PROFILES DEPICT TALL- SKINNY CAPE PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT A RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ADDED ENHANCED WORDING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PTD TO SLK TO RUT...GENERALLY
CONSISTENT WITH WHERE HI-RES REFLECTIVITY WANTS TO RE-DEVELOP
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. THERE IS A BIT MORE FLOW IN THE COLUMN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY SO STORMS SHOULD MOVE A LITTLE QUICKER.
LIKELY LESS LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FOOTPRINTS...BUT COULD SEE
LOCALIZED AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING GIVEN THAT SOME OF THESE SAME
AREAS RECEIVED RAINFALL YESTERDAY.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO PERSIST TODAY AS WELL KEEPING TEMPS FROM CLIMBING
SIGNIFICANTLY. I LOWERED HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO
TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. STILL COULD BE A CHANCE FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND SOUTHWEST VERMONT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN GFS MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER. HAVE
KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY... BUT EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS SOUTH FROM
CANADA. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AND
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY QUIET AND STRAIGHT FORWARD FCST FOR
SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...WHICH WL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS
CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS
WEDS INTO THURS OF NEXT WEEK...WITH REGARDS TO NORTHERN STREAM
TROF AND ASSOCIATED POSITION OF SFC COLD FRNT. GIVEN THE RECENT
TRENDS THIS SUMMER FOR LESS WAA DEVELOPING AHEAD OF TROF AND
FASTER SFC COLD FRNT ARRIVAL TIMES...WL USE THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR
WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD. THIS SUPPORTS A FLATTER MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE AND WARMEST 85H TEMPS STAYING JUST TO OUR SOUTH...ALONG WITH
THE BEST INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING
BTWN 14-16C BY 00Z WEDS...EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH
MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE WARMER CPV/SLV ON TUES. IN
ADDITION...SOUTHERLY FLW WL INCREASE THE SFC DWPTS INTO THE
60S...WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS ANTICIPATED. LATEST GFS/ECMWF
SHOW SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED 5H VORTS SLIDING JUST TO OUR NORTH ON
TUES...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM NEAR THE BORDER
ON TUES. WL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM...GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM RIDGE ACRS OUR CWA. THE COMBINATION OF POTENT 5H
VORT IN DEVELOPING S/W TROF ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND A SFC COLD
FRNT WL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BY WEDS. COOLER
TEMPS WL ALSO ARRIVE BY WEDS/THURS...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
FALLING BACK BTWN 8-10C BY 00Z THURS. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT IF THE FRNT IS SLOWER AND THE GFS
THERMAL FIELDS ARE REALIZED THEN TEMPS WEDS COULD BE WELL INTO THE
80S TO LOWER 90S. I WOULD EXPECT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WITH
POSITION OF TROF DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTH OF RIDGE/ASSOCIATED
THERMAL PROFILES BY THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY/MONDAY WL
FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD
DAYS...RESULTING IN TYPICAL MID AUGUST WEATHER FOR OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY....CRNT RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY/CPV ATTM...SLOWLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL VT. VIS/CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRECIP IS MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. WL MENTION MAINLY VFR IN THE PREVAILING GROUP
WITH TEMPO FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM BTWN 12-15Z.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WL BE POSSIBLE
ACRS NORTHERN NY TAF SITES THIS AFTN...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
IN THE HEAVIER STORMS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS. A SLOW CLRING TREND
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 21Z...WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS. THINKING CLOUDS AND
WINDS WL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG/BR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MORNING FOG WL BE LIKELY AT SLK/MPV
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BOTH SAT AND SUNDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-
13Z. LOOK FOR MAINLY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER VALUES AT MSS AND RUTLAND.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER











000
FXUS61 KBTV 211140
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
740 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS
TIME AND HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. STILL
EXPECTING MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHWEST
VERMONT...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES MADE TO CURRENT
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK MOVING INTO WESTERN VERMONT AT
THIS TIME. WILL GO WITH MAINLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR
TODAY FOR SHOWERS...EXCEPT FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT WHERE
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS TODAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT IN NOT SHOWING MUCH IF ANY QPF ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST
VERMONT TODAY. BEST INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHWEST VERMONT. MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE
TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO SOUTHWEST
VERMONT. DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER THAN ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW TO
MID 70S FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO
TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. STILL COULD BE A CHANCE FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND SOUTHWEST VERMONT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN GFS MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER. HAVE
KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY... BUT EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS SOUTH FROM
CANADA. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AND
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY QUIET AND STRAIGHT FORWARD FCST FOR
SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...WHICH WL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS
CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS
WEDS INTO THURS OF NEXT WEEK...WITH REGARDS TO NORTHERN STREAM
TROF AND ASSOCIATED POSITION OF SFC COLD FRNT. GIVEN THE RECENT
TRENDS THIS SUMMER FOR LESS WAA DEVELOPING AHEAD OF TROF AND
FASTER SFC COLD FRNT ARRIVAL TIMES...WL USE THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR
WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD. THIS SUPPORTS A FLATTER MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE AND WARMEST 85H TEMPS STAYING JUST TO OUR SOUTH...ALONG WITH
THE BEST INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING
BTWN 14-16C BY 00Z WEDS...EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH
MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE WARMER CPV/SLV ON TUES. IN
ADDITION...SOUTHERLY FLW WL INCREASE THE SFC DWPTS INTO THE
60S...WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS ANTICIPATED. LATEST GFS/ECMWF
SHOW SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED 5H VORTS SLIDING JUST TO OUR NORTH ON
TUES...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM NEAR THE BORDER
ON TUES. WL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM...GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM RIDGE ACRS OUR CWA. THE COMBINATION OF POTENT 5H
VORT IN DEVELOPING S/W TROF ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND A SFC COLD
FRNT WL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BY WEDS. COOLER
TEMPS WL ALSO ARRIVE BY WEDS/THURS...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
FALLING BACK BTWN 8-10C BY 00Z THURS. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT IF THE FRNT IS SLOWER AND THE GFS
THERMAL FIELDS ARE REALIZED THEN TEMPS WEDS COULD BE WELL INTO THE
80S TO LOWER 90S. I WOULD EXPECT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WITH
POSITION OF TROF DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTH OF RIDGE/ASSOCIATED
THERMAL PROFILES BY THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY/MONDAY WL
FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD
DAYS...RESULTING IN TYPICAL MID AUGUST WEATHER FOR OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY....CRNT RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY/CPV ATTM...SLOWLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL VT. VIS/CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRECIP IS MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. WL MENTION MAINLY VFR IN THE PREVAILING GROUP
WITH TEMPO FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM BTWN 12-15Z.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WL BE POSSIBLE
ACRS NORTHERN NY TAF SITES THIS AFTN...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
IN THE HEAVIER STORMS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS. A SLOW CLRING TREND
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 21Z...WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS. THINKING CLOUDS AND
WINDS WL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG/BR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MORNING FOG WL BE LIKELY AT SLK/MPV
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BOTH SAT AND SUNDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-
13Z. LOOK FOR MAINLY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER VALUES AT MSS AND RUTLAND.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER







000
FXUS61 KBTV 211140
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
740 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS
TIME AND HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. STILL
EXPECTING MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHWEST
VERMONT...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES MADE TO CURRENT
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK MOVING INTO WESTERN VERMONT AT
THIS TIME. WILL GO WITH MAINLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR
TODAY FOR SHOWERS...EXCEPT FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT WHERE
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS TODAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT IN NOT SHOWING MUCH IF ANY QPF ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST
VERMONT TODAY. BEST INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHWEST VERMONT. MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE
TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO SOUTHWEST
VERMONT. DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER THAN ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW TO
MID 70S FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO
TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. STILL COULD BE A CHANCE FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND SOUTHWEST VERMONT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN GFS MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER. HAVE
KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY... BUT EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS SOUTH FROM
CANADA. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AND
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY QUIET AND STRAIGHT FORWARD FCST FOR
SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...WHICH WL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS
CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS
WEDS INTO THURS OF NEXT WEEK...WITH REGARDS TO NORTHERN STREAM
TROF AND ASSOCIATED POSITION OF SFC COLD FRNT. GIVEN THE RECENT
TRENDS THIS SUMMER FOR LESS WAA DEVELOPING AHEAD OF TROF AND
FASTER SFC COLD FRNT ARRIVAL TIMES...WL USE THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR
WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD. THIS SUPPORTS A FLATTER MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE AND WARMEST 85H TEMPS STAYING JUST TO OUR SOUTH...ALONG WITH
THE BEST INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING
BTWN 14-16C BY 00Z WEDS...EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH
MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE WARMER CPV/SLV ON TUES. IN
ADDITION...SOUTHERLY FLW WL INCREASE THE SFC DWPTS INTO THE
60S...WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS ANTICIPATED. LATEST GFS/ECMWF
SHOW SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED 5H VORTS SLIDING JUST TO OUR NORTH ON
TUES...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM NEAR THE BORDER
ON TUES. WL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM...GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM RIDGE ACRS OUR CWA. THE COMBINATION OF POTENT 5H
VORT IN DEVELOPING S/W TROF ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND A SFC COLD
FRNT WL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BY WEDS. COOLER
TEMPS WL ALSO ARRIVE BY WEDS/THURS...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
FALLING BACK BTWN 8-10C BY 00Z THURS. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT IF THE FRNT IS SLOWER AND THE GFS
THERMAL FIELDS ARE REALIZED THEN TEMPS WEDS COULD BE WELL INTO THE
80S TO LOWER 90S. I WOULD EXPECT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WITH
POSITION OF TROF DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTH OF RIDGE/ASSOCIATED
THERMAL PROFILES BY THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY/MONDAY WL
FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD
DAYS...RESULTING IN TYPICAL MID AUGUST WEATHER FOR OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY....CRNT RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY/CPV ATTM...SLOWLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL VT. VIS/CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRECIP IS MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. WL MENTION MAINLY VFR IN THE PREVAILING GROUP
WITH TEMPO FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM BTWN 12-15Z.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WL BE POSSIBLE
ACRS NORTHERN NY TAF SITES THIS AFTN...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
IN THE HEAVIER STORMS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS. A SLOW CLRING TREND
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 21Z...WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS. THINKING CLOUDS AND
WINDS WL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG/BR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MORNING FOG WL BE LIKELY AT SLK/MPV
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BOTH SAT AND SUNDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-
13Z. LOOK FOR MAINLY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER VALUES AT MSS AND RUTLAND.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER








000
FXUS61 KBTV 211131
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
731 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK MOVING INTO WESTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME.
WILL GO WITH MAINLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR TODAY FOR
SHOWERS...EXCEPT FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT WHERE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS TODAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT
IN NOT SHOWING MUCH IF ANY QPF ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT
TODAY. BEST INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND SOUTHWEST VERMONT. MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE TO ROTATE
AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO SOUTHWEST VERMONT. DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN ON
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW TO MID 70S FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO
TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. STILL COULD BE A CHANCE FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND SOUTHWEST VERMONT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN GFS MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER. HAVE
KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY... BUT EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS SOUTH FROM
CANADA. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AND
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY QUIET AND STRAIGHT FORWARD FCST FOR
SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...WHICH WL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS
CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS
WEDS INTO THURS OF NEXT WEEK...WITH REGARDS TO NORTHERN STREAM
TROF AND ASSOCIATED POSITION OF SFC COLD FRNT. GIVEN THE RECENT
TRENDS THIS SUMMER FOR LESS WAA DEVELOPING AHEAD OF TROF AND
FASTER SFC COLD FRNT ARRIVAL TIMES...WL USE THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR
WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD. THIS SUPPORTS A FLATTER MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE AND WARMEST 85H TEMPS STAYING JUST TO OUR SOUTH...ALONG WITH
THE BEST INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING
BTWN 14-16C BY 00Z WEDS...EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH
MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE WARMER CPV/SLV ON TUES. IN
ADDITION...SOUTHERLY FLW WL INCREASE THE SFC DWPTS INTO THE
60S...WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS ANTICIPATED. LATEST GFS/ECMWF
SHOW SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED 5H VORTS SLIDING JUST TO OUR NORTH ON
TUES...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM NEAR THE BORDER
ON TUES. WL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM...GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM RIDGE ACRS OUR CWA. THE COMBINATION OF POTENT 5H
VORT IN DEVELOPING S/W TROF ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND A SFC COLD
FRNT WL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BY WEDS. COOLER
TEMPS WL ALSO ARRIVE BY WEDS/THURS...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
FALLING BACK BTWN 8-10C BY 00Z THURS. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT IF THE FRNT IS SLOWER AND THE GFS
THERMAL FIELDS ARE REALIZED THEN TEMPS WEDS COULD BE WELL INTO THE
80S TO LOWER 90S. I WOULD EXPECT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WITH
POSITION OF TROF DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTH OF RIDGE/ASSOCIATED
THERMAL PROFILES BY THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY/MONDAY WL
FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD
DAYS...RESULTING IN TYPICAL MID AUGUST WEATHER FOR OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY....CRNT RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY/CPV ATTM...SLOWLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL VT. VIS/CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRECIP IS MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. WL MENTION MAINLY VFR IN THE PREVAILING GROUP
WITH TEMPO FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM BTWN 12-15Z.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WL BE POSSIBLE
ACRS NORTHERN NY TAF SITES THIS AFTN...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
IN THE HEAVIER STORMS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS. A SLOW CLRING TREND
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 21Z...WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS. THINKING CLOUDS AND
WINDS WL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG/BR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MORNING FOG WL BE LIKELY AT SLK/MPV
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BOTH SAT AND SUNDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-
13Z. LOOK FOR MAINLY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER VALUES AT MSS AND RUTLAND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING
SYSTEM (ASOS) AT SAINT JOHNSBURY VERMONT (K1V4) NOW APPEARS TO BE
TRANSMITTING OBSERVATIONS AGAIN AS OF 0754Z (354 AM EDT).

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
EQUIPMENT...WGH









000
FXUS61 KBTV 211131
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
731 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK MOVING INTO WESTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME.
WILL GO WITH MAINLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR TODAY FOR
SHOWERS...EXCEPT FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT WHERE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS TODAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT
IN NOT SHOWING MUCH IF ANY QPF ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT
TODAY. BEST INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND SOUTHWEST VERMONT. MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE TO ROTATE
AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO SOUTHWEST VERMONT. DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN ON
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW TO MID 70S FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO
TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. STILL COULD BE A CHANCE FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND SOUTHWEST VERMONT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN GFS MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER. HAVE
KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY... BUT EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS SOUTH FROM
CANADA. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AND
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY QUIET AND STRAIGHT FORWARD FCST FOR
SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...WHICH WL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS
CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS
WEDS INTO THURS OF NEXT WEEK...WITH REGARDS TO NORTHERN STREAM
TROF AND ASSOCIATED POSITION OF SFC COLD FRNT. GIVEN THE RECENT
TRENDS THIS SUMMER FOR LESS WAA DEVELOPING AHEAD OF TROF AND
FASTER SFC COLD FRNT ARRIVAL TIMES...WL USE THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR
WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD. THIS SUPPORTS A FLATTER MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE AND WARMEST 85H TEMPS STAYING JUST TO OUR SOUTH...ALONG WITH
THE BEST INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING
BTWN 14-16C BY 00Z WEDS...EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH
MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE WARMER CPV/SLV ON TUES. IN
ADDITION...SOUTHERLY FLW WL INCREASE THE SFC DWPTS INTO THE
60S...WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS ANTICIPATED. LATEST GFS/ECMWF
SHOW SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED 5H VORTS SLIDING JUST TO OUR NORTH ON
TUES...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM NEAR THE BORDER
ON TUES. WL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM...GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM RIDGE ACRS OUR CWA. THE COMBINATION OF POTENT 5H
VORT IN DEVELOPING S/W TROF ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND A SFC COLD
FRNT WL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BY WEDS. COOLER
TEMPS WL ALSO ARRIVE BY WEDS/THURS...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
FALLING BACK BTWN 8-10C BY 00Z THURS. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT IF THE FRNT IS SLOWER AND THE GFS
THERMAL FIELDS ARE REALIZED THEN TEMPS WEDS COULD BE WELL INTO THE
80S TO LOWER 90S. I WOULD EXPECT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WITH
POSITION OF TROF DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTH OF RIDGE/ASSOCIATED
THERMAL PROFILES BY THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY/MONDAY WL
FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD
DAYS...RESULTING IN TYPICAL MID AUGUST WEATHER FOR OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY....CRNT RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY/CPV ATTM...SLOWLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL VT. VIS/CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRECIP IS MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. WL MENTION MAINLY VFR IN THE PREVAILING GROUP
WITH TEMPO FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM BTWN 12-15Z.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WL BE POSSIBLE
ACRS NORTHERN NY TAF SITES THIS AFTN...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
IN THE HEAVIER STORMS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS. A SLOW CLRING TREND
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 21Z...WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS. THINKING CLOUDS AND
WINDS WL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG/BR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MORNING FOG WL BE LIKELY AT SLK/MPV
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BOTH SAT AND SUNDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-
13Z. LOOK FOR MAINLY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER VALUES AT MSS AND RUTLAND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING
SYSTEM (ASOS) AT SAINT JOHNSBURY VERMONT (K1V4) NOW APPEARS TO BE
TRANSMITTING OBSERVATIONS AGAIN AS OF 0754Z (354 AM EDT).

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
EQUIPMENT...WGH








000
FXUS61 KALY 211058
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
658 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. THIS WEEKEND...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT ALL
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM...A WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY FROM THE EASTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST ADIRONDACKS...EASTWARD ACROSS THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRE
COUNTY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL AND LIKELY ACROSS THIS
REGION FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING UNTIL THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
MOVES FURTHER EAST. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY CHANCE POPS ARE FORECAST FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING. LATER THIS MORNING POPS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE
FOR A TIME...BUT BY LATER TODAY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA ONCE AGAIN...AS ADDITIONAL MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING BEGINS IMPACT THE REGION...AND CHANCE POPS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS.

IT WILL BE CLOUDY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...WITH
DRIER AIR WORKING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM A SPRAWLING
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. POPS ARE SLOWLY
FORECAST TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
ON SATURDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS RISING TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AS WE ENTER THE LAST WEEK OF AUGUST.

WPC GUIDANCE/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES/GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SRN QUEBEC AND
NRN NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT...AND BE CENTERED OVER  THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY TO TUESDAY...AS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM
THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND PLAINS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP DOWN
STREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER THE LONG TERM STRETCH.

A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WAS ADDED TO THE GRIDDED FORECASTS WED
PM INTO WED NIGHT NW OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPS WILL START OUT COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE CLOSE OF THE WEEKEND
WITH 50S FOR LOWS...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M70S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...H850 TEMP MODERATE TO +13C TO +14C WITH DECENT
MIXING...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF
UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE U70S TO L80S
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.  LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 50S TO L60S.  WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST AFTERNOON WITH
M70S TO L80S FOR HIGHS...AND HUMIDITY LEVELS CREEPING UP WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL IMPACT THE
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS.

A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE LATE THIS MORNING AT
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF. THE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY FROM AT KGFL
AS BANDS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERSIST AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CNTRL AND
ERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING MUCH OF THE
MORNING ESPECIALLY FROM KALB NORTH AND EAST. OTHER SHOWERS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA BTWN 21Z AND 00Z/FRI LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR
LEVELS AGAIN AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN TERMS
OF CIGS/VSBYS AT KPSF AND POSSIBLY KGFL.

SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THE PROBS ARE STILL
BELOW 50 PERCENT...SO WE WILL LET LATER TAF ISSUANCES ADDRESS THE
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES. THE THREAT PERIOD LOOKS LIKE 20Z TO 04Z/FRI.

THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5-8 KTS. EXPECT LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
TONIGHT AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DAMP FOR FRIDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...GENERALLY OVER
60 PERCENT...SOMETIMES CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT...DUE TO THE WET WEATHER
AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

THE WIND WILL VARIABLE TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5-10 MPH TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.

A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY.

AS OF 400 AM...RADAR INDICATES THAT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO THREE
INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN SINCE WEDNESDAY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO THE SARATOGA REGION. GENERALLY A THIRD OF AN INCH TO ONE AND A
HALF INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SHOWERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF TO ONE INCH IN
MANY AREAS...BUT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF ANOTHER TWO TO THREE INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE.

DUE TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS BEFORE THE
RAIN BEGAN...THE IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL GENERALLY BE
MINOR AND NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED. BE.

HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT THESE SHOULD BE
LIGHT.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND AND FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/LFM/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KALY 211040
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
640 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. THIS WEEKEND...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT ALL
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 630 AM...A WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY FROM THE EASTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST ADIRONDACKS...EASTWARD ACROSS THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRE
COUNTY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL AND LIKELY ACROSS THIS
REGION FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING UNTIL THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
MOVES FURTHER EAST. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY CHANCE POPS ARE FORECAST FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING. LATER THIS MORNING POPS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE
FOR A TIME...BUT BY LATER TODAY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA ONCE AGAIN...AS ADDITIONAL MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING BEGINS IMPACT THE REGION...AND CHANCE POPS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS.

IT WILL BE CLOUDY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...WITH
DRIER AIR WORKING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM A SPRAWLING
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. POPS ARE SLOWLY
FORECAST TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
ON SATURDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS RISING TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AS WE ENTER THE LAST WEEK OF AUGUST.

WPC GUIDANCE/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES/GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SRN QUEBEC AND
NRN NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT...AND BE CENTERED OVER  THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY TO TUESDAY...AS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM
THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND PLAINS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP DOWN
STREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER THE LONG TERM STRETCH.

A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WAS ADDED TO THE GRIDDED FORECASTS WED
PM INTO WED NIGHT NW OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPS WILL START OUT COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE CLOSE OF THE WEEKEND
WITH 50S FOR LOWS...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M70S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...H850 TEMP MODERATE TO +13C TO +14C WITH DECENT
MIXING...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF
UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE U70S TO L80S
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.  LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 50S TO L60S.  WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST AFTERNOON WITH
M70S TO L80S FOR HIGHS...AND HUMIDITY LEVELS CREEPING UP WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL IMPACT THE
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS.

A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AT
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF. THE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY FROM KALB-KPSF
NORTHWARD WHERE A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERSIST AHEAD
OF THE SFC LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS
GOING MUCH OF THE MORNING. OTHER SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO KPOU BTWN
09Z-12Z WITH LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM.
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS/VSBYS IS EXPECTED FROM KALB SOUTH AND
EAST IN THE EARLY PM...BUT SHOWERS WILL MOVE BACK IN BTWN 21Z-00Z
BASED ON THE LATEST NAM/HRRR. SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT THE PROBS ARE STILL BELOW 50 PERCENT...SO WE WILL
LET LATER TAF ISSUANCES ADDRESS THE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES.

THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5-8 KTS. EXPECT LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
TONIGHT AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DAMP FOR FRIDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...GENERALLY OVER
60 PERCENT...SOMETIMES CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT...DUE TO THE WET WEATHER
AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

THE WIND WILL VARIABLE TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5-10 MPH TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.

A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY.

AS OF 400 AM...RADAR INDICATES THAT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO THREE
INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN SINCE WEDNESDAY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO THE SARATOGA REGION. GENERALLY A THIRD OF AN INCH TO ONE AND A
HALF INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SHOWERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF TO ONE INCH IN
MANY AREAS...BUT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF ANOTHER TWO TO THREE INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE.

DUE TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS BEFORE THE
RAIN BEGAN...THE IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL GENERALLY BE
MINOR AND NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED. BE.

HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT THESE SHOULD BE
LIGHT.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND AND FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM














000
FXUS61 KALY 211040
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
640 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. THIS WEEKEND...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT ALL
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 630 AM...A WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY FROM THE EASTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST ADIRONDACKS...EASTWARD ACROSS THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRE
COUNTY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL AND LIKELY ACROSS THIS
REGION FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING UNTIL THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
MOVES FURTHER EAST. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY CHANCE POPS ARE FORECAST FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING. LATER THIS MORNING POPS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE
FOR A TIME...BUT BY LATER TODAY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA ONCE AGAIN...AS ADDITIONAL MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING BEGINS IMPACT THE REGION...AND CHANCE POPS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS.

IT WILL BE CLOUDY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...WITH
DRIER AIR WORKING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM A SPRAWLING
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. POPS ARE SLOWLY
FORECAST TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
ON SATURDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS RISING TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AS WE ENTER THE LAST WEEK OF AUGUST.

WPC GUIDANCE/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES/GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SRN QUEBEC AND
NRN NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT...AND BE CENTERED OVER  THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY TO TUESDAY...AS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM
THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND PLAINS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP DOWN
STREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER THE LONG TERM STRETCH.

A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WAS ADDED TO THE GRIDDED FORECASTS WED
PM INTO WED NIGHT NW OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPS WILL START OUT COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE CLOSE OF THE WEEKEND
WITH 50S FOR LOWS...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M70S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...H850 TEMP MODERATE TO +13C TO +14C WITH DECENT
MIXING...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF
UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE U70S TO L80S
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.  LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 50S TO L60S.  WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST AFTERNOON WITH
M70S TO L80S FOR HIGHS...AND HUMIDITY LEVELS CREEPING UP WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL IMPACT THE
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS.

A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AT
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF. THE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY FROM KALB-KPSF
NORTHWARD WHERE A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERSIST AHEAD
OF THE SFC LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS
GOING MUCH OF THE MORNING. OTHER SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO KPOU BTWN
09Z-12Z WITH LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM.
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS/VSBYS IS EXPECTED FROM KALB SOUTH AND
EAST IN THE EARLY PM...BUT SHOWERS WILL MOVE BACK IN BTWN 21Z-00Z
BASED ON THE LATEST NAM/HRRR. SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT THE PROBS ARE STILL BELOW 50 PERCENT...SO WE WILL
LET LATER TAF ISSUANCES ADDRESS THE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES.

THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5-8 KTS. EXPECT LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
TONIGHT AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DAMP FOR FRIDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...GENERALLY OVER
60 PERCENT...SOMETIMES CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT...DUE TO THE WET WEATHER
AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

THE WIND WILL VARIABLE TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5-10 MPH TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.

A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY.

AS OF 400 AM...RADAR INDICATES THAT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO THREE
INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN SINCE WEDNESDAY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO THE SARATOGA REGION. GENERALLY A THIRD OF AN INCH TO ONE AND A
HALF INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SHOWERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF TO ONE INCH IN
MANY AREAS...BUT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF ANOTHER TWO TO THREE INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE.

DUE TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS BEFORE THE
RAIN BEGAN...THE IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL GENERALLY BE
MINOR AND NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED. BE.

HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT THESE SHOULD BE
LIGHT.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND AND FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM















000
FXUS61 KALY 210852
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
450 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. THIS WEEKEND...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT ALL
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 430 AM...THE BACK EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS
AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AHEAD OF THE BACK EDGE THERE WERE
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. LIKELY POPS OR HIGHER ARE FORECAST FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH...AND LIKELY TO CHANCE POPS
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE POPS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN SLOWLY MOVES EAST. BY LATER
TODAY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST AREA ONCE
AGAIN AS ADDITIONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING BEGINS IMPACT THE
REGION...AND CHANCE POPS ARE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS.

IT WILL BE CLOUDY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...WITH
DRIER AIR WORKING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM A SPRAWLING
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. POPS ARE SLOWLY
FORECAST TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
ON SATURDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS RISING TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AS WE ENTER THE LAST WEEK OF AUGUST.

WPC GUIDANCE/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES/GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SRN QUEBEC AND
NRN NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT...AND BE CENTERED OVER  THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY TO TUESDAY...AS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM
THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND PLAINS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP DOWN
STREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER THE LONG TERM STRETCH.

A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WAS ADDED TO THE GRIDDED FORECASTS WED
PM INTO WED NIGHT NW OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPS WILL START OUT COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE CLOSE OF THE WEEKEND
WITH 50S FOR LOWS...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M70S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...H850 TEMP MODERATE TO +13C TO +14C WITH DECENT
MIXING...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF
UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE U70S TO L80S
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.  LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 50S TO L60S.  WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST AFTERNOON WITH
M70S TO L80S FOR HIGHS...AND HUMIDITY LEVELS CREEPING UP WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL IMPACT THE
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS.

A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AT
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF. THE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY FROM KALB-KPSF
NORTHWARD WHERE A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERSIST AHEAD
OF THE SFC LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS
GOING MUCH OF THE MORNING. OTHER SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO KPOU BTWN
09Z-12Z WITH LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM.
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS/VSBYS IS EXPECTED FROM KALB SOUTH AND
EAST IN THE EARLY PM...BUT SHOWERS WILL MOVE BACK IN BTWN 21Z-00Z
BASED ON THE LATEST NAM/HRRR. SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT THE PROBS ARE STILL BELOW 50 PERCENT...SO WE WILL
LET LATER TAF ISSUANCES ADDRESS THE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES.

THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5-8 KTS. EXPECT LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
TONIGHT AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DAMP FOR FRIDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...GENERALLY OVER
60 PERCENT...SOMETIMES CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT...DUE TO THE WET WEATHER
AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

THE WIND WILL VARIABLE TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5-10 MPH TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.

A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY.

AS OF 400 AM...RADAR INDICATES THAT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO THREE
INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN SINCE WEDNESDAY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO THE SARATOGA REGION. GENERALLY A THIRD OF AN INCH TO ONE AND A
HALF INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SHOWERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF TO ONE INCH IN
MANY AREAS...BUT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF ANOTHER TWO TO THREE INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE.

DUE TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS BEFORE THE
RAIN BEGAN...THE IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL GENERALLY BE
MINOR AND NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED. BE.

HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT THESE SHOULD BE
LIGHT.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND AND FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM











000
FXUS61 KALY 210849
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
450 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. THIS WEEKEND...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT ALL
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 430 AM...THE BACK EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS
AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AHEAD OF THE BACK EDGE THERE WERE
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. LIKELY POPS OR HIGHER ARE FORECAST FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH...AND LIKELY TO CHANCE POPS
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE POPS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN SLOWLY MOVES EAST. BY LATER
TODAY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST AREA ONCE
AGAIN AS ADDITIONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING BEGINS IMPACT THE
REGION...AND CHANCE POPS ARE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS.

IT WILL BE CLOUDY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...WITH
DRIER AIR WORKING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM A SPRAWLING
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. POPS ARE SLOWLY
FORECAST TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
ON SATURDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS RISING TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AS WE ENTER THE LAST WEEK OF AUGUST.

WPC GUIDANCE/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES/GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SRN QUEBEC AND
NRN NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT...AND BE CENTERED OVER  THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY TO TUESDAY...AS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM
THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND PLAINS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP DOWN
STREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER THE LONG TERM STRETCH.

A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WAS ADDED TO THE GRIDDED FORECASTS WED
PM INTO WED NIGHT NW OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPS WILL START OUT COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE CLOSE OF THE WEEKEND
WITH 50S FOR LOWS...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M70S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...H850 TEMP MODERATE TO +13C TO +14C WITH DECENT
MIXING...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF
UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE U70S TO L80S
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.  LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 50S TO L60S.  WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST AFTERNOON WITH
M70S TO L80S FOR HIGHS...AND HUMIDITY LEVELS CREEPING UP WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL IMPACT THE
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS.

A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AT
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF. THE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY FROM KALB-KPSF
NORTHWARD WHERE A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERSIST AHEAD
OF THE SFC LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS
GOING MUCH OF THE MORNING. OTHER SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO KPOU BTWN
09Z-12Z WITH LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM.
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS/VSBYS IS EXPECTED FROM KALB SOUTH AND
EAST IN THE EARLY PM...BUT SHOWERS WILL MOVE BACK IN BTWN 21Z-00Z
BASED ON THE LATEST NAM/HRRR. SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT THE PROBS ARE STILL BELOW 50 PERCENT...SO WE WILL
LET LATER TAF ISSUANCES ADDRESS THE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES.

THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5-8 KTS. EXPECT LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
TONIGHT AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DAMP FOR FRIDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THE NEXT COULD OF DAYS...GENERALLY OVER
60 PERCENT...SOMETIMES CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT...DUE TO THE WET WEATHER
AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

THE WIND WILL VARIABLE TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5-10 MPH TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.

A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY.

AS OF 400 AM...RADAR INDICATES THAT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO THREE
INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN SINCE WEDNESDAY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO THE SARATOGA REGION. GENERALLY A THIRD OF AN INCH TO ONE AND A
HALF INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SHOWERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF TO ONE INCH IN
MANY AREAS...BUT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF ANOTHER TWO TO THREE INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE.

DUE TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS BEFORE THE
RAIN BEGAN...THE IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL GENERALLY BE
MINOR AND NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED. BE.

HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT THESE SHOULD BE
LIGHT.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND AND FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM











000
FXUS61 KALY 210849
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
450 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. THIS WEEKEND...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT ALL
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 430 AM...THE BACK EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS
AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AHEAD OF THE BACK EDGE THERE WERE
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. LIKELY POPS OR HIGHER ARE FORECAST FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH...AND LIKELY TO CHANCE POPS
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE POPS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN SLOWLY MOVES EAST. BY LATER
TODAY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST AREA ONCE
AGAIN AS ADDITIONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING BEGINS IMPACT THE
REGION...AND CHANCE POPS ARE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS.

IT WILL BE CLOUDY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...WITH
DRIER AIR WORKING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM A SPRAWLING
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. POPS ARE SLOWLY
FORECAST TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
ON SATURDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS RISING TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AS WE ENTER THE LAST WEEK OF AUGUST.

WPC GUIDANCE/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES/GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SRN QUEBEC AND
NRN NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT...AND BE CENTERED OVER  THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY TO TUESDAY...AS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM
THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND PLAINS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP DOWN
STREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER THE LONG TERM STRETCH.

A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WAS ADDED TO THE GRIDDED FORECASTS WED
PM INTO WED NIGHT NW OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPS WILL START OUT COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE CLOSE OF THE WEEKEND
WITH 50S FOR LOWS...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M70S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...H850 TEMP MODERATE TO +13C TO +14C WITH DECENT
MIXING...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF
UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE U70S TO L80S
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.  LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 50S TO L60S.  WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST AFTERNOON WITH
M70S TO L80S FOR HIGHS...AND HUMIDITY LEVELS CREEPING UP WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL IMPACT THE
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS.

A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AT
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF. THE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY FROM KALB-KPSF
NORTHWARD WHERE A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERSIST AHEAD
OF THE SFC LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS
GOING MUCH OF THE MORNING. OTHER SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO KPOU BTWN
09Z-12Z WITH LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM.
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS/VSBYS IS EXPECTED FROM KALB SOUTH AND
EAST IN THE EARLY PM...BUT SHOWERS WILL MOVE BACK IN BTWN 21Z-00Z
BASED ON THE LATEST NAM/HRRR. SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT THE PROBS ARE STILL BELOW 50 PERCENT...SO WE WILL
LET LATER TAF ISSUANCES ADDRESS THE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES.

THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5-8 KTS. EXPECT LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
TONIGHT AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DAMP FOR FRIDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THE NEXT COULD OF DAYS...GENERALLY OVER
60 PERCENT...SOMETIMES CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT...DUE TO THE WET WEATHER
AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

THE WIND WILL VARIABLE TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5-10 MPH TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.

A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY.

AS OF 400 AM...RADAR INDICATES THAT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO THREE
INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN SINCE WEDNESDAY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO THE SARATOGA REGION. GENERALLY A THIRD OF AN INCH TO ONE AND A
HALF INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SHOWERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF TO ONE INCH IN
MANY AREAS...BUT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF ANOTHER TWO TO THREE INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE.

DUE TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS BEFORE THE
RAIN BEGAN...THE IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL GENERALLY BE
MINOR AND NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED. BE.

HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT THESE SHOULD BE
LIGHT.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND AND FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM











000
FXUS61 KALY 210849
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
450 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. THIS WEEKEND...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT ALL
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 430 AM...THE BACK EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS
AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AHEAD OF THE BACK EDGE THERE WERE
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. LIKELY POPS OR HIGHER ARE FORECAST FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH...AND LIKELY TO CHANCE POPS
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE POPS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN SLOWLY MOVES EAST. BY LATER
TODAY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST AREA ONCE
AGAIN AS ADDITIONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING BEGINS IMPACT THE
REGION...AND CHANCE POPS ARE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS.

IT WILL BE CLOUDY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...WITH
DRIER AIR WORKING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM A SPRAWLING
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. POPS ARE SLOWLY
FORECAST TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
ON SATURDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS RISING TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AS WE ENTER THE LAST WEEK OF AUGUST.

WPC GUIDANCE/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES/GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SRN QUEBEC AND
NRN NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT...AND BE CENTERED OVER  THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY TO TUESDAY...AS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM
THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND PLAINS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP DOWN
STREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER THE LONG TERM STRETCH.

A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WAS ADDED TO THE GRIDDED FORECASTS WED
PM INTO WED NIGHT NW OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPS WILL START OUT COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE CLOSE OF THE WEEKEND
WITH 50S FOR LOWS...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M70S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...H850 TEMP MODERATE TO +13C TO +14C WITH DECENT
MIXING...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF
UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE U70S TO L80S
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.  LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 50S TO L60S.  WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST AFTERNOON WITH
M70S TO L80S FOR HIGHS...AND HUMIDITY LEVELS CREEPING UP WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL IMPACT THE
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS.

A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AT
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF. THE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY FROM KALB-KPSF
NORTHWARD WHERE A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERSIST AHEAD
OF THE SFC LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS
GOING MUCH OF THE MORNING. OTHER SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO KPOU BTWN
09Z-12Z WITH LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM.
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS/VSBYS IS EXPECTED FROM KALB SOUTH AND
EAST IN THE EARLY PM...BUT SHOWERS WILL MOVE BACK IN BTWN 21Z-00Z
BASED ON THE LATEST NAM/HRRR. SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT THE PROBS ARE STILL BELOW 50 PERCENT...SO WE WILL
LET LATER TAF ISSUANCES ADDRESS THE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES.

THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5-8 KTS. EXPECT LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
TONIGHT AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DAMP FOR FRIDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THE NEXT COULD OF DAYS...GENERALLY OVER
60 PERCENT...SOMETIMES CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT...DUE TO THE WET WEATHER
AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

THE WIND WILL VARIABLE TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5-10 MPH TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.

A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY.

AS OF 400 AM...RADAR INDICATES THAT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO THREE
INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN SINCE WEDNESDAY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO THE SARATOGA REGION. GENERALLY A THIRD OF AN INCH TO ONE AND A
HALF INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SHOWERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF TO ONE INCH IN
MANY AREAS...BUT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF ANOTHER TWO TO THREE INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE.

DUE TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS BEFORE THE
RAIN BEGAN...THE IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL GENERALLY BE
MINOR AND NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED. BE.

HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT THESE SHOULD BE
LIGHT.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND AND FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM











000
FXUS61 KALY 210849
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
450 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. THIS WEEKEND...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT ALL
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 430 AM...THE BACK EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS
AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AHEAD OF THE BACK EDGE THERE WERE
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. LIKELY POPS OR HIGHER ARE FORECAST FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH...AND LIKELY TO CHANCE POPS
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE POPS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN SLOWLY MOVES EAST. BY LATER
TODAY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST AREA ONCE
AGAIN AS ADDITIONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING BEGINS IMPACT THE
REGION...AND CHANCE POPS ARE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS.

IT WILL BE CLOUDY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...WITH
DRIER AIR WORKING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM A SPRAWLING
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. POPS ARE SLOWLY
FORECAST TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
ON SATURDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FRIDAY MID
60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS RISING TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AS WE ENTER THE LAST WEEK OF AUGUST.

WPC GUIDANCE/ECMWF/ENSEMBLES/GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SRN QUEBEC AND
NRN NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT...AND BE CENTERED OVER  THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY TO TUESDAY...AS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM
THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND PLAINS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP DOWN
STREAM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER THE LONG TERM STRETCH.

A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WAS ADDED TO THE GRIDDED FORECASTS WED
PM INTO WED NIGHT NW OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPS WILL START OUT COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE CLOSE OF THE WEEKEND
WITH 50S FOR LOWS...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M70S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...H850 TEMP MODERATE TO +13C TO +14C WITH DECENT
MIXING...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF
UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE U70S TO L80S
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.  LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 50S TO L60S.  WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST AFTERNOON WITH
M70S TO L80S FOR HIGHS...AND HUMIDITY LEVELS CREEPING UP WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL IMPACT THE
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS.

A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AT
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF. THE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY FROM KALB-KPSF
NORTHWARD WHERE A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERSIST AHEAD
OF THE SFC LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS
GOING MUCH OF THE MORNING. OTHER SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO KPOU BTWN
09Z-12Z WITH LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM.
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS/VSBYS IS EXPECTED FROM KALB SOUTH AND
EAST IN THE EARLY PM...BUT SHOWERS WILL MOVE BACK IN BTWN 21Z-00Z
BASED ON THE LATEST NAM/HRRR. SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT THE PROBS ARE STILL BELOW 50 PERCENT...SO WE WILL
LET LATER TAF ISSUANCES ADDRESS THE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES.

THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5-8 KTS. EXPECT LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
TONIGHT AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DAMP FOR FRIDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THE NEXT COULD OF DAYS...GENERALLY OVER
60 PERCENT...SOMETIMES CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT...DUE TO THE WET WEATHER
AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

THE WIND WILL VARIABLE TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5-10 MPH TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.

A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY.

AS OF 400 AM...RADAR INDICATES THAT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO THREE
INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN SINCE WEDNESDAY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO THE SARATOGA REGION. GENERALLY A THIRD OF AN INCH TO ONE AND A
HALF INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SHOWERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF TO ONE INCH IN
MANY AREAS...BUT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF ANOTHER TWO TO THREE INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE.

DUE TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS BEFORE THE
RAIN BEGAN...THE IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL GENERALLY BE
MINOR AND NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED. BE.

HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT THESE SHOULD BE
LIGHT.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND AND FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM











000
FXUS61 KBTV 210831
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
431 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK MOVING INTO WESTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME.
WILL GO WITH MAINLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR TODAY FOR
SHOWERS...EXCEPT FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT WHERE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS TODAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT
IN NOT SHOWING MUCH IF ANY QPF ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT
TODAY. BEST INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND SOUTHWEST VERMONT. MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE TO ROTATE
AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO SOUTHWEST VERMONT. DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN ON
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW TO MID 70S FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO
TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. STILL COULD BE A CHANCE FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND SOUTHWEST VERMONT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN GFS MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER. HAVE
KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY... BUT EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS SOUTH FROM
CANADA. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AND
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY QUIET AND STRAIGHT FORWARD FCST FOR
SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...WHICH WL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS
CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS
WEDS INTO THURS OF NEXT WEEK...WITH REGARDS TO NORTHERN STREAM
TROF AND ASSOCIATED POSITION OF SFC COLD FRNT. GIVEN THE RECENT
TRENDS THIS SUMMER FOR LESS WAA DEVELOPING AHEAD OF TROF AND
FASTER SFC COLD FRNT ARRIVAL TIMES...WL USE THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR
WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD. THIS SUPPORTS A FLATTER MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE AND WARMEST 85H TEMPS STAYING JUST TO OUR SOUTH...ALONG WITH
THE BEST INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING
BTWN 14-16C BY 00Z WEDS...EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH
MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE WARMER CPV/SLV ON TUES. IN
ADDITION...SOUTHERLY FLW WL INCREASE THE SFC DWPTS INTO THE
60S...WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS ANTICIPATED. LATEST GFS/ECMWF
SHOW SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED 5H VORTS SLIDING JUST TO OUR NORTH ON
TUES...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM NEAR THE BORDER
ON TUES. WL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM...GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM RIDGE ACRS OUR CWA. THE COMBINATION OF POTENT 5H
VORT IN DEVELOPING S/W TROF ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND A SFC COLD
FRNT WL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BY WEDS. COOLER
TEMPS WL ALSO ARRIVE BY WEDS/THURS...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
FALLING BACK BTWN 8-10C BY 00Z THURS. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT IF THE FRNT IS SLOWER AND THE GFS
THERMAL FIELDS ARE REALIZED THEN TEMPS WEDS COULD BE WELL INTO THE
80S TO LOWER 90S. I WOULD EXPECT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WITH
POSITION OF TROF DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTH OF RIDGE/ASSOCIATED
THERMAL PROFILES BY THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY/MONDAY WL
FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD
DAYS...RESULTING IN TYPICAL MID AUGUST WEATHER FOR OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY....CRNT RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY ATTM...SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE CPV. VIS/CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRECIP IS MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. ALSO...NOTED SOME MVFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CIGS AT MSS. THINKING THIS RAIN WL ARRIVE AT PBG BY 08Z AND INTO
BTV BY 09Z...WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. SOUNDINGS SHOW LLVL
MOISTURE INCREASING AT SLK WITH SOME IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BTWN 09Z-
14Z THIS MORNING. HAVE USED A TEMPO GROUP TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDS AND 200 TO 400 FT AGL WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL AT MPV OVERNIGHT. FOR
THURSDAY...EXPECTING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH SOME PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE WITH MVFR VIS BTWN 3-5SM. WL USE TEMPO
GROUP TO COVER HEAVIER PERIOD OF SHOWERS AT BTV/RUT. A SLOW CLRING
TREND WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 18Z...WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MORNING FOG WL BE LIKELY AT SLK/MPV
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BOTH SAT AND SUNDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-
13Z. LOOK FOR MAINLY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER VALUES AT MSS AND RUTLAND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING
SYSTEM (ASOS) AT SAINT JOHNSBURY VERMONT (K1V4) NOW APPEARS TO BE
TRANSMITTING OBSERVATIONS AGAIN AS OF 0754Z (354 AM EDT).

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
EQUIPMENT...WGH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 210831
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
431 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK MOVING INTO WESTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME.
WILL GO WITH MAINLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR TODAY FOR
SHOWERS...EXCEPT FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT WHERE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS TODAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT
IN NOT SHOWING MUCH IF ANY QPF ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT
TODAY. BEST INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND SOUTHWEST VERMONT. MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE TO ROTATE
AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE
INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO SOUTHWEST VERMONT. DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN ON
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW TO MID 70S FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO
TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. STILL COULD BE A CHANCE FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND SOUTHWEST VERMONT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN GFS MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER. HAVE
KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY... BUT EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS SOUTH FROM
CANADA. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AND
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY QUIET AND STRAIGHT FORWARD FCST FOR
SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...WHICH WL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS
CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS
WEDS INTO THURS OF NEXT WEEK...WITH REGARDS TO NORTHERN STREAM
TROF AND ASSOCIATED POSITION OF SFC COLD FRNT. GIVEN THE RECENT
TRENDS THIS SUMMER FOR LESS WAA DEVELOPING AHEAD OF TROF AND
FASTER SFC COLD FRNT ARRIVAL TIMES...WL USE THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR
WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD. THIS SUPPORTS A FLATTER MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE AND WARMEST 85H TEMPS STAYING JUST TO OUR SOUTH...ALONG WITH
THE BEST INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING
BTWN 14-16C BY 00Z WEDS...EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH
MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE WARMER CPV/SLV ON TUES. IN
ADDITION...SOUTHERLY FLW WL INCREASE THE SFC DWPTS INTO THE
60S...WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS ANTICIPATED. LATEST GFS/ECMWF
SHOW SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED 5H VORTS SLIDING JUST TO OUR NORTH ON
TUES...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM NEAR THE BORDER
ON TUES. WL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM...GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM RIDGE ACRS OUR CWA. THE COMBINATION OF POTENT 5H
VORT IN DEVELOPING S/W TROF ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND A SFC COLD
FRNT WL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BY WEDS. COOLER
TEMPS WL ALSO ARRIVE BY WEDS/THURS...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
FALLING BACK BTWN 8-10C BY 00Z THURS. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT IF THE FRNT IS SLOWER AND THE GFS
THERMAL FIELDS ARE REALIZED THEN TEMPS WEDS COULD BE WELL INTO THE
80S TO LOWER 90S. I WOULD EXPECT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WITH
POSITION OF TROF DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTH OF RIDGE/ASSOCIATED
THERMAL PROFILES BY THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY/MONDAY WL
FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD
DAYS...RESULTING IN TYPICAL MID AUGUST WEATHER FOR OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY....CRNT RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY ATTM...SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE CPV. VIS/CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRECIP IS MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. ALSO...NOTED SOME MVFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CIGS AT MSS. THINKING THIS RAIN WL ARRIVE AT PBG BY 08Z AND INTO
BTV BY 09Z...WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. SOUNDINGS SHOW LLVL
MOISTURE INCREASING AT SLK WITH SOME IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BTWN 09Z-
14Z THIS MORNING. HAVE USED A TEMPO GROUP TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDS AND 200 TO 400 FT AGL WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL AT MPV OVERNIGHT. FOR
THURSDAY...EXPECTING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH SOME PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE WITH MVFR VIS BTWN 3-5SM. WL USE TEMPO
GROUP TO COVER HEAVIER PERIOD OF SHOWERS AT BTV/RUT. A SLOW CLRING
TREND WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 18Z...WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MORNING FOG WL BE LIKELY AT SLK/MPV
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BOTH SAT AND SUNDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-
13Z. LOOK FOR MAINLY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER VALUES AT MSS AND RUTLAND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING
SYSTEM (ASOS) AT SAINT JOHNSBURY VERMONT (K1V4) NOW APPEARS TO BE
TRANSMITTING OBSERVATIONS AGAIN AS OF 0754Z (354 AM EDT).

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
EQUIPMENT...WGH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 210803
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
403 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY FOR MAINLY NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE WESTERN HALF OF
VERMONT. DRIER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THAT HIGH WILL STICK AROUND, GIVING
US A LONG STRING OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER THAT WILL LAST FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 144 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF
THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS
TIME ...WITH SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE
LOWERED POPS ACROSS VERMONT OVERNIGHT AND RAISED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK. BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST GFS LAMP
GUIDANCE HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. NAM/GFS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LOW OPENS
UP/WEAKENS AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO ONCE AGAIN BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED
ACROSS NORTHERN NY /LIKELY POPS/ ON THURSDAY...THOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS VT IS ON THURSDAY. AIRMASS STILL
IS FAIRLY MOIST WITH PWS AROUND 1.5" WITH 12Z NAM SHOWING CAPE
VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDER. THE THUNDER RISK FOR THURSDAY IS
LIMITED GIVEN EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ALSO LOSING
BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING GIVEN WEAKENING UPPER LOW. THEREFORE I`VE
ONLY GONE WITH SHOWERS THURSDAY. DESPITE 850 TEMPS OF +11 TO
+13C...OVERCAST WILL ONLY KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. OVERALL
DECREASING TREND IN POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER DISTURBANCE
PIVOTS SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

LARGE GRADIENT IN STORM TOTAL QPF /SPANNING WEDNESDAY AFTN THROUGH
12Z FRIDAY/. AMOUNTS RANGE FROM NIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM...UNDER 0.5" FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...TO UP TO 1.25" FOR
THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AREAS.

BY FRIDAY...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD TOWARD
QUEBEC AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS
TO AN OPEN WAVE. SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
BUT SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL WIN OUT BY LATE IN THE
DAY INTO THE EVENING. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THERMAL PROFILES FOR
FRIDAY...BUT MORE BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO
TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY QUIET AND STRAIGHT FORWARD FCST FOR
SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...WHICH WL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS
CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS
WEDS INTO THURS OF NEXT WEEK...WITH REGARDS TO NORTHERN STREAM
TROF AND ASSOCIATED POSITION OF SFC COLD FRNT. GIVEN THE RECENT
TRENDS THIS SUMMER FOR LESS WAA DEVELOPING AHEAD OF TROF AND
FASTER SFC COLD FRNT ARRIVAL TIMES...WL USE THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR
WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD. THIS SUPPORTS A FLATTER MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE AND WARMEST 85H TEMPS STAYING JUST TO OUR SOUTH...ALONG WITH
THE BEST INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING
BTWN 14-16C BY 00Z WEDS...EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH
MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE WARMER CPV/SLV ON TUES. IN
ADDITION...SOUTHERLY FLW WL INCREASE THE SFC DWPTS INTO THE
60S...WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS ANTICIPATED. LATEST GFS/ECMWF
SHOW SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED 5H VORTS SLIDING JUST TO OUR NORTH ON
TUES...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM NEAR THE BORDER
ON TUES. WL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM...GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM RIDGE ACRS OUR CWA. THE COMBINATION OF POTENT 5H
VORT IN DEVELOPING S/W TROF ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND A SFC COLD
FRNT WL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BY WEDS. COOLER
TEMPS WL ALSO ARRIVE BY WEDS/THURS...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
FALLING BACK BTWN 8-10C BY 00Z THURS. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT IF THE FRNT IS SLOWER AND THE GFS
THERMAL FIELDS ARE REALIZED THEN TEMPS WEDS COULD BE WELL INTO THE
80S TO LOWER 90S. I WOULD EXPECT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WITH
POSITION OF TROF DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTH OF RIDGE/ASSOCIATED
THERMAL PROFILES BY THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY/MONDAY WL
FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD
DAYS...RESULTING IN TYPICAL MID AUGUST WEATHER FOR OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY....CRNT RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY ATTM...SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE CPV. VIS/CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRECIP IS MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. ALSO...NOTED SOME MVFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CIGS AT MSS. THINKING THIS RAIN WL ARRIVE AT PBG BY 08Z AND INTO
BTV BY 09Z...WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. SOUNDINGS SHOW LLVL
MOISTURE INCREASING AT SLK WITH SOME IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BTWN 09Z-
14Z THIS MORNING. HAVE USED A TEMPO GROUP TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDS AND 200 TO 400 FT AGL WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL AT MPV OVERNIGHT. FOR
THURSDAY...EXPECTING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH SOME PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE WITH MVFR VIS BTWN 3-5SM. WL USE TEMPO
GROUP TO COVER HEAVIER PERIOD OF SHOWERS AT BTV/RUT. A SLOW CLRING
TREND WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 18Z...WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MORNING FOG WL BE LIKELY AT SLK/MPV
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BOTH SAT AND SUNDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-
13Z. LOOK FOR MAINLY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER VALUES AT MSS AND RUTLAND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 144 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING
SYSTEM (ASOS) AT SAINT JOHNSBURY VERMONT (K1V4) HAS NOT
TRANSMITTED AN OBSERVATION SINCE 1954Z (354 PM EDT) ON WEDNESDAY
AUGUST 20TH. AN ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN WILL CHECK INTO THIS
PROBLEM LATER THIS MORNING. NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME
AS TO WHEN THIS PROBLEM WILL BE FIXED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
EQUIPMENT...WGH










000
FXUS61 KBTV 210803
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
403 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY FOR MAINLY NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE WESTERN HALF OF
VERMONT. DRIER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THAT HIGH WILL STICK AROUND, GIVING
US A LONG STRING OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER THAT WILL LAST FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 144 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF
THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS
TIME ...WITH SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE
LOWERED POPS ACROSS VERMONT OVERNIGHT AND RAISED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK. BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST GFS LAMP
GUIDANCE HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. NAM/GFS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LOW OPENS
UP/WEAKENS AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO ONCE AGAIN BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED
ACROSS NORTHERN NY /LIKELY POPS/ ON THURSDAY...THOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS VT IS ON THURSDAY. AIRMASS STILL
IS FAIRLY MOIST WITH PWS AROUND 1.5" WITH 12Z NAM SHOWING CAPE
VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDER. THE THUNDER RISK FOR THURSDAY IS
LIMITED GIVEN EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ALSO LOSING
BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING GIVEN WEAKENING UPPER LOW. THEREFORE I`VE
ONLY GONE WITH SHOWERS THURSDAY. DESPITE 850 TEMPS OF +11 TO
+13C...OVERCAST WILL ONLY KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. OVERALL
DECREASING TREND IN POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER DISTURBANCE
PIVOTS SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

LARGE GRADIENT IN STORM TOTAL QPF /SPANNING WEDNESDAY AFTN THROUGH
12Z FRIDAY/. AMOUNTS RANGE FROM NIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM...UNDER 0.5" FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...TO UP TO 1.25" FOR
THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AREAS.

BY FRIDAY...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD TOWARD
QUEBEC AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS
TO AN OPEN WAVE. SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
BUT SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL WIN OUT BY LATE IN THE
DAY INTO THE EVENING. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THERMAL PROFILES FOR
FRIDAY...BUT MORE BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO
TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY QUIET AND STRAIGHT FORWARD FCST FOR
SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...WHICH WL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS
CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS
WEDS INTO THURS OF NEXT WEEK...WITH REGARDS TO NORTHERN STREAM
TROF AND ASSOCIATED POSITION OF SFC COLD FRNT. GIVEN THE RECENT
TRENDS THIS SUMMER FOR LESS WAA DEVELOPING AHEAD OF TROF AND
FASTER SFC COLD FRNT ARRIVAL TIMES...WL USE THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR
WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD. THIS SUPPORTS A FLATTER MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE AND WARMEST 85H TEMPS STAYING JUST TO OUR SOUTH...ALONG WITH
THE BEST INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING
BTWN 14-16C BY 00Z WEDS...EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH
MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE WARMER CPV/SLV ON TUES. IN
ADDITION...SOUTHERLY FLW WL INCREASE THE SFC DWPTS INTO THE
60S...WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS ANTICIPATED. LATEST GFS/ECMWF
SHOW SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED 5H VORTS SLIDING JUST TO OUR NORTH ON
TUES...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM NEAR THE BORDER
ON TUES. WL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM...GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM RIDGE ACRS OUR CWA. THE COMBINATION OF POTENT 5H
VORT IN DEVELOPING S/W TROF ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND A SFC COLD
FRNT WL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BY WEDS. COOLER
TEMPS WL ALSO ARRIVE BY WEDS/THURS...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
FALLING BACK BTWN 8-10C BY 00Z THURS. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT IF THE FRNT IS SLOWER AND THE GFS
THERMAL FIELDS ARE REALIZED THEN TEMPS WEDS COULD BE WELL INTO THE
80S TO LOWER 90S. I WOULD EXPECT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WITH
POSITION OF TROF DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTH OF RIDGE/ASSOCIATED
THERMAL PROFILES BY THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY/MONDAY WL
FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD
DAYS...RESULTING IN TYPICAL MID AUGUST WEATHER FOR OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY....CRNT RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY ATTM...SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE CPV. VIS/CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRECIP IS MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. ALSO...NOTED SOME MVFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CIGS AT MSS. THINKING THIS RAIN WL ARRIVE AT PBG BY 08Z AND INTO
BTV BY 09Z...WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. SOUNDINGS SHOW LLVL
MOISTURE INCREASING AT SLK WITH SOME IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BTWN 09Z-
14Z THIS MORNING. HAVE USED A TEMPO GROUP TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDS AND 200 TO 400 FT AGL WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL AT MPV OVERNIGHT. FOR
THURSDAY...EXPECTING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH SOME PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE WITH MVFR VIS BTWN 3-5SM. WL USE TEMPO
GROUP TO COVER HEAVIER PERIOD OF SHOWERS AT BTV/RUT. A SLOW CLRING
TREND WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 18Z...WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MORNING FOG WL BE LIKELY AT SLK/MPV
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BOTH SAT AND SUNDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-
13Z. LOOK FOR MAINLY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER VALUES AT MSS AND RUTLAND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 144 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING
SYSTEM (ASOS) AT SAINT JOHNSBURY VERMONT (K1V4) HAS NOT
TRANSMITTED AN OBSERVATION SINCE 1954Z (354 PM EDT) ON WEDNESDAY
AUGUST 20TH. AN ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN WILL CHECK INTO THIS
PROBLEM LATER THIS MORNING. NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME
AS TO WHEN THIS PROBLEM WILL BE FIXED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
EQUIPMENT...WGH









000
FXUS61 KALY 210600
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
200 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. THIS WEEKEND...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT ALL
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM...HAVE EXPANDED THE AREA OF LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT TO
REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE AREA WITH
CHANCE POPS FURTHER TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN PAST NIGHTS...GENERALLY IN THE
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CONVEYOR BELT OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH THE BEST FORCING LOOKING TO BE FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. RAIN COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AT
TIMES...BUT RIGHT NOW NOT ENOUGH SIGNALS TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING
THE GRIDS. WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY IN THE ADIRONDACKS
(OROGRAPHICS WILL LIKELY ASSIST WITH ASCENT THERE)...LIKELY POPS
MOST OTHER AREAS...EXCEPT CHANCE POPS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE
FORCING AND PWATS LOOKS LOWER.

WE ARE NOT NECESSARILY EXPECTED A COMPLETE WASHOUT ON THURSDAY...BUT
IT WILL BE DAMP AND GRAY WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS JUST ABOUT ANY
TIME.

DUE TO THE CANOPY OF CLOUDS...WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY TOP IN
THE 70S...BUT IT WILL BE HUMID. IF WE WERE TO GET MORE BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...INSTABILITY (WHICH WE EXPECT TO BE LIMITED) WOULD
INCREASE. FOR NOW...JUST A CHANCE OF MAINLY NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...(WIND FIELDS ARE FAIRLY WEAK) BUT AGAIN MORE
SUNSHINE COULD MEAN TALLER THUNDER.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ACTUAL OCCLUDE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION...KEEPING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND (LOWER CHANCES AGAIN SOUTH). TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL A LITTLE MORE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST...TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW OPENS AND MOVES TO OUR EAST.
HOWEVER...INITIALLY THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
LOW SO LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND OR POCKETS OF
DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR
THIS DAY...CARRIED LOW POPS (30) FOR ELEVATIONS 1000 FEET OR
HIGHER...SLIGHT POPS (20) FOR VALLEY AREAS.

DUE TO THE CLOUDS...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION...LEANED WITH THE (BUT
NOT ALL THE WAY) THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. WE LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70 ON FRIDAY...WITH MOST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN REMAINING IN THE 60S ALL DAY LONG.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE IMPROVES BUT WE WILL LIKELY GET UNDER AN
INVERSION WHICH COULD KEEP CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE PATCHY AROUND
AT LEAST INTO THE EVENING. WE HAVE NO MENTION OF DRIZZLE RIGHT NOW
BUT IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT DIP BACK MAINLY INTO
THE 50S...LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...UPPER 50S FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

BY SATURDAY...RIDGING ALOFT LOOKS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION
AND LOOKS TO SCOUR AT LEAST SOME OF THE CLOUDS AWAY. A STRAY
AFTERNOON POP UP SHOWER CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT BUT FROM THIS
VANTAGE POINT...THE THREAT OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW.

SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP WARM THE COLUMN UP A LITTLE. H850 TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE AROUND +12C WHICH WITH NORMAL MIXING...WOULD YIELD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE
FORECAST. A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH OF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A MORE DOMINANT PRESENCE AS
WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ORIENTATION AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SW TO NE RIGHT OVER OUR AREA WILL PROVIDE CONTINUAL TRANQUIL
WEATHER OVER THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ALSO FAVORS LARGE
SCALE SFC DIVERGENCE AS OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN 80-90 KT JET AS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST 20/12Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
PAST THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH
WILL BE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY AS TIME GETS CLOSER TO MID NEXT WEEK.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WILL
SHIFT MORE TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE APEX OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OF OUR REGION AS WE GO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AS WE WORK TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL IMPACT THE
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS.

A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AT
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF. THE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY FROM KALB-KPSF
NORTHWARD WHERE A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERSIST AHEAD
OF THE SFC LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS
GOING MUCH OF THE MORNING. OTHER SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO KPOU BTWN
09Z-12Z WITH LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM.
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS/VSBYS IS EXPECTED FROM KALB SOUTH AND
EAST IN THE EARLY PM...BUT SHOWERS WILL MOVE BACK IN BTWN 21Z-00Z
BASED ON THE LATEST NAM/HRRR. SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT THE PROBS ARE STILL BELOW 50 PERCENT...SO WE WILL
LET LATER TAF ISSUANCES ADDRESS THE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES.

THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5-8 KTS. EXPECT LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
TONIGHT AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD
INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...EXCEPT SCATTERED SOUTH OF ALBANY. WE ASSIGNED A "WET
FLAG" TO ALL THE NFDRS EXCEPT STONYKILL. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS. THERE COULD BE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL CONTAINING LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DAMP FOR FRIDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

BY SATURDAY WE SHOULD RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WHICH COULD LINGER INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THE NEXT COULD OF DAYS...GENERALLY OVER
60 PERCENT...SOMETIMES CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT. AFTERNOON RH VALUES
SHOULD RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS BY SATURDAY...CLOSER TO 50
PERCENT.

THE WIND WILL VARIABLE TO SOUTH 5-10 MPH ON THURSDAY...SHIFTING TO
THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION BRINGING
PWAT AIR OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO
THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE
CATSKILLS. UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. DUE TO LOW
RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE LITTLE
IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WELL
OVER AN INCH. THIS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT THESE SHOULD BE
LIGHTER AS THE PWAT VALUES WILL DROP BACK DOWN CLOSER TO AN INCH.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/LFM/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KALY 210600
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
200 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. THIS WEEKEND...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT ALL
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM...HAVE EXPANDED THE AREA OF LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT TO
REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE AREA WITH
CHANCE POPS FURTHER TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN PAST NIGHTS...GENERALLY IN THE
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CONVEYOR BELT OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH THE BEST FORCING LOOKING TO BE FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. RAIN COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AT
TIMES...BUT RIGHT NOW NOT ENOUGH SIGNALS TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING
THE GRIDS. WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY IN THE ADIRONDACKS
(OROGRAPHICS WILL LIKELY ASSIST WITH ASCENT THERE)...LIKELY POPS
MOST OTHER AREAS...EXCEPT CHANCE POPS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE
FORCING AND PWATS LOOKS LOWER.

WE ARE NOT NECESSARILY EXPECTED A COMPLETE WASHOUT ON THURSDAY...BUT
IT WILL BE DAMP AND GRAY WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS JUST ABOUT ANY
TIME.

DUE TO THE CANOPY OF CLOUDS...WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY TOP IN
THE 70S...BUT IT WILL BE HUMID. IF WE WERE TO GET MORE BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...INSTABILITY (WHICH WE EXPECT TO BE LIMITED) WOULD
INCREASE. FOR NOW...JUST A CHANCE OF MAINLY NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...(WIND FIELDS ARE FAIRLY WEAK) BUT AGAIN MORE
SUNSHINE COULD MEAN TALLER THUNDER.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ACTUAL OCCLUDE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION...KEEPING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND (LOWER CHANCES AGAIN SOUTH). TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL A LITTLE MORE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST...TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW OPENS AND MOVES TO OUR EAST.
HOWEVER...INITIALLY THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
LOW SO LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND OR POCKETS OF
DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR
THIS DAY...CARRIED LOW POPS (30) FOR ELEVATIONS 1000 FEET OR
HIGHER...SLIGHT POPS (20) FOR VALLEY AREAS.

DUE TO THE CLOUDS...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION...LEANED WITH THE (BUT
NOT ALL THE WAY) THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. WE LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70 ON FRIDAY...WITH MOST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN REMAINING IN THE 60S ALL DAY LONG.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE IMPROVES BUT WE WILL LIKELY GET UNDER AN
INVERSION WHICH COULD KEEP CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE PATCHY AROUND
AT LEAST INTO THE EVENING. WE HAVE NO MENTION OF DRIZZLE RIGHT NOW
BUT IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT DIP BACK MAINLY INTO
THE 50S...LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...UPPER 50S FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

BY SATURDAY...RIDGING ALOFT LOOKS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION
AND LOOKS TO SCOUR AT LEAST SOME OF THE CLOUDS AWAY. A STRAY
AFTERNOON POP UP SHOWER CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT BUT FROM THIS
VANTAGE POINT...THE THREAT OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW.

SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP WARM THE COLUMN UP A LITTLE. H850 TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE AROUND +12C WHICH WITH NORMAL MIXING...WOULD YIELD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE
FORECAST. A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH OF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A MORE DOMINANT PRESENCE AS
WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ORIENTATION AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SW TO NE RIGHT OVER OUR AREA WILL PROVIDE CONTINUAL TRANQUIL
WEATHER OVER THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ALSO FAVORS LARGE
SCALE SFC DIVERGENCE AS OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN 80-90 KT JET AS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST 20/12Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
PAST THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH
WILL BE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY AS TIME GETS CLOSER TO MID NEXT WEEK.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WILL
SHIFT MORE TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE APEX OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OF OUR REGION AS WE GO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AS WE WORK TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL IMPACT THE
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS.

A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AT
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF. THE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY FROM KALB-KPSF
NORTHWARD WHERE A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERSIST AHEAD
OF THE SFC LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS
GOING MUCH OF THE MORNING. OTHER SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO KPOU BTWN
09Z-12Z WITH LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM.
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS/VSBYS IS EXPECTED FROM KALB SOUTH AND
EAST IN THE EARLY PM...BUT SHOWERS WILL MOVE BACK IN BTWN 21Z-00Z
BASED ON THE LATEST NAM/HRRR. SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT THE PROBS ARE STILL BELOW 50 PERCENT...SO WE WILL
LET LATER TAF ISSUANCES ADDRESS THE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES.

THE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...AND THEN INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5-8 KTS. EXPECT LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
TONIGHT AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD
INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...EXCEPT SCATTERED SOUTH OF ALBANY. WE ASSIGNED A "WET
FLAG" TO ALL THE NFDRS EXCEPT STONYKILL. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS. THERE COULD BE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL CONTAINING LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DAMP FOR FRIDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

BY SATURDAY WE SHOULD RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WHICH COULD LINGER INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THE NEXT COULD OF DAYS...GENERALLY OVER
60 PERCENT...SOMETIMES CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT. AFTERNOON RH VALUES
SHOULD RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS BY SATURDAY...CLOSER TO 50
PERCENT.

THE WIND WILL VARIABLE TO SOUTH 5-10 MPH ON THURSDAY...SHIFTING TO
THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION BRINGING
PWAT AIR OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO
THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE
CATSKILLS. UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. DUE TO LOW
RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE LITTLE
IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WELL
OVER AN INCH. THIS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT THESE SHOULD BE
LIGHTER AS THE PWAT VALUES WILL DROP BACK DOWN CLOSER TO AN INCH.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/LFM/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 210554
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
154 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY FOR MAINLY NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE WESTERN HALF OF
VERMONT. DRIER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THAT HIGH WILL STICK AROUND, GIVING
US A LONG STRING OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER THAT WILL LAST FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 144 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF
THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS
TIME ...WITH SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE
LOWERED POPS ACROSS VERMONT OVERNIGHT AND RAISED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK. BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST GFS LAMP
GUIDANCE HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. NAM/GFS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LOW OPENS
UP/WEAKENS AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO ONCE AGAIN BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED
ACROSS NORTHERN NY /LIKELY POPS/ ON THURSDAY...THOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS VT IS ON THURSDAY. AIRMASS STILL
IS FAIRLY MOIST WITH PWS AROUND 1.5" WITH 12Z NAM SHOWING CAPE
VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDER. THE THUNDER RISK FOR THURSDAY IS
LIMITED GIVEN EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ALSO LOSING
BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING GIVEN WEAKENING UPPER LOW. THEREFORE I`VE
ONLY GONE WITH SHOWERS THURSDAY. DESPITE 850 TEMPS OF +11 TO
+13C...OVERCAST WILL ONLY KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. OVERALL
DECREASING TREND IN POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER DISTURBANCE
PIVOTS SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

LARGE GRADIENT IN STORM TOTAL QPF /SPANNING WEDNESDAY AFTN THROUGH
12Z FRIDAY/. AMOUNTS RANGE FROM NIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM...UNDER 0.5" FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...TO UP TO 1.25" FOR
THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AREAS.

BY FRIDAY...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD TOWARD
QUEBEC AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS
TO AN OPEN WAVE. SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
BUT SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL WIN OUT BY LATE IN THE
DAY INTO THE EVENING. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THERMAL PROFILES FOR
FRIDAY...BUT MORE BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO
TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...12Z GUIDANCE FROM GFS, GFS ENSEMBLES
AND ECMWF ARE ALL IN PRETTY DARN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER
AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL PREVIOUS RUNS, THUS I WOULD RATE MY
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AS ABOVE NORMAL. IN SUMMARY, LARGE
SCALE BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY, RESULTING IN DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK (SUMMER WILL HANG ON NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAKES THIS
FORECASTER PERSONALLY HAPPY). WITH THE CLOSENESS AMONG THE MODELS, I
SAW NO REASON TO SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATE FROM THE PURE BLEND BETWEEN
THEM ALL. HERE ARE THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA.
STILL SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SO CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT IN
GENERAL THE FORECAST IS A DRY ONE. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY NOSING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. LUCKILY THIS TIME OF THE YEAR THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS ARE AT THEIR WARMEST SO I DON`T EXPECT ANY
ISSUES WITH WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AS WE WOULD SEE IN
THE SPRING OR EVEN EARLY SUMMER. HOWEVER IT WILL SET UP AN A
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WHERE IT WILL BE COOLEST EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND WARMEST IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 10-12C (EAST TO WEST), HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY TO UPPER 70S IN
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT.
VALLEY FOG WILL PROBABLY FORM AS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY...DITTO.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH ON TOP OF THE AREA
ALONG WITH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT. NET RESULT: LOTS OF SUN AND VERY
LIGHT WINDS. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO THE 12-13C RANGE AND WITH
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING, WE SHOULD REALIZE THE FULL POTENTIAL OF WARMTH
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. MONDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER REPEAT OF CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY...ALMOST IDENTICAL TO MONDAY, EXCEPT THE HIGH SINKS JUST A
LITTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA ALLOWING THE FLOW TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. IN RESPONSE, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A DEGREE OR TWO
FROM MONDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP AROUND 12-14C, SO LOOK
FOR LOWER 80S TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD. STILL DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND
A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PERHAPS AS LOW AS 7500FT SO ANY
DAYTIME CUMULUS THAT FORMS WILL BE VERY SHALLOW. TUESDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER REPEAT OF MONDAY NIGHT WHICH IS A REPEAT OF SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH IS A REPEAT OF SATURDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOME. GFS & IT`S ENSEMBLE MEAN
KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE STRONG, MEANING LOTS O` SUN. ECMWF FLATTENS
THE RIDGE IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO THE
NORTH AND BRINGS IN SOME MOISTURE TO NORTHERN NY LATE IN THE DAY
SUGGESTING A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ABOUT. WITH THE BLEND I USED, I
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION, BUT PAINTED IN SOME 10-20%
POPS IN NORTHERN NY. THE BASIC WORDED FORECAST WILL INDICATE A DRY
DAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 14-16C OR SO, THUS EVEN MORE OF
THE AREA WILL BE POKING ABOVE THE 80F MARK -- WITH EVEN A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE CHAMPLAIN/ST LAWRENCE VALLEY PUSHING INTO THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY....CRNT RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY ATTM...SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE CPV. VIS/CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRECIP IS MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. ALSO...NOTED SOME MVFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CIGS AT MSS. THINKING THIS RAIN WL ARRIVE AT PBG BY 08Z AND INTO
BTV BY 09Z...WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. SOUNDINGS SHOW LLVL
MOISTURE INCREASING AT SLK WITH SOME IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BTWN 09Z-
14Z THIS MORNING. HAVE USED A TEMPO GROUP TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDS AND 200 TO 400 FT AGL WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL AT MPV OVERNIGHT. FOR
THURSDAY...EXPECTING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH SOME PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE WITH MVFR VIS BTWN 3-5SM. WL USE TEMPO
GROUP TO COVER HEAVIER PERIOD OF SHOWERS AT BTV/RUT. A SLOW CLRING
TREND WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 18Z...WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MORNING FOG WL BE LIKELY AT SLK/MPV
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BOTH SAT AND SUNDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-
13Z. LOOK FOR MAINLY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER VALUES AT MSS AND RUTLAND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 144 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING
SYSTEM (ASOS) AT SAINT JOHNSBURY VERMONT (K1V4) HAS NOT
TRANSMITTED AN OBSERVATION SINCE 1954Z (354 PM EDT) ON WEDNESDAY
AUGUST 20TH. AN ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN WILL CHECK INTO THIS
PROBLEM LATER THIS MORNING. NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME
AS TO WHEN THIS PROBLEM WILL BE FIXED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...TABER
EQUIPMENT...WGH









000
FXUS61 KBTV 210554
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
154 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY FOR MAINLY NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE WESTERN HALF OF
VERMONT. DRIER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THAT HIGH WILL STICK AROUND, GIVING
US A LONG STRING OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER THAT WILL LAST FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 144 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF
THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS
TIME ...WITH SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE
LOWERED POPS ACROSS VERMONT OVERNIGHT AND RAISED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK. BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST GFS LAMP
GUIDANCE HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. NAM/GFS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LOW OPENS
UP/WEAKENS AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO ONCE AGAIN BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED
ACROSS NORTHERN NY /LIKELY POPS/ ON THURSDAY...THOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS VT IS ON THURSDAY. AIRMASS STILL
IS FAIRLY MOIST WITH PWS AROUND 1.5" WITH 12Z NAM SHOWING CAPE
VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDER. THE THUNDER RISK FOR THURSDAY IS
LIMITED GIVEN EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ALSO LOSING
BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING GIVEN WEAKENING UPPER LOW. THEREFORE I`VE
ONLY GONE WITH SHOWERS THURSDAY. DESPITE 850 TEMPS OF +11 TO
+13C...OVERCAST WILL ONLY KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. OVERALL
DECREASING TREND IN POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER DISTURBANCE
PIVOTS SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

LARGE GRADIENT IN STORM TOTAL QPF /SPANNING WEDNESDAY AFTN THROUGH
12Z FRIDAY/. AMOUNTS RANGE FROM NIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM...UNDER 0.5" FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...TO UP TO 1.25" FOR
THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AREAS.

BY FRIDAY...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD TOWARD
QUEBEC AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS
TO AN OPEN WAVE. SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
BUT SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL WIN OUT BY LATE IN THE
DAY INTO THE EVENING. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THERMAL PROFILES FOR
FRIDAY...BUT MORE BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO
TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...12Z GUIDANCE FROM GFS, GFS ENSEMBLES
AND ECMWF ARE ALL IN PRETTY DARN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER
AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL PREVIOUS RUNS, THUS I WOULD RATE MY
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AS ABOVE NORMAL. IN SUMMARY, LARGE
SCALE BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY, RESULTING IN DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK (SUMMER WILL HANG ON NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAKES THIS
FORECASTER PERSONALLY HAPPY). WITH THE CLOSENESS AMONG THE MODELS, I
SAW NO REASON TO SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATE FROM THE PURE BLEND BETWEEN
THEM ALL. HERE ARE THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA.
STILL SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SO CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT IN
GENERAL THE FORECAST IS A DRY ONE. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY NOSING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. LUCKILY THIS TIME OF THE YEAR THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS ARE AT THEIR WARMEST SO I DON`T EXPECT ANY
ISSUES WITH WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AS WE WOULD SEE IN
THE SPRING OR EVEN EARLY SUMMER. HOWEVER IT WILL SET UP AN A
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WHERE IT WILL BE COOLEST EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND WARMEST IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 10-12C (EAST TO WEST), HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY TO UPPER 70S IN
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT.
VALLEY FOG WILL PROBABLY FORM AS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY...DITTO.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH ON TOP OF THE AREA
ALONG WITH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT. NET RESULT: LOTS OF SUN AND VERY
LIGHT WINDS. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO THE 12-13C RANGE AND WITH
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING, WE SHOULD REALIZE THE FULL POTENTIAL OF WARMTH
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. MONDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER REPEAT OF CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY...ALMOST IDENTICAL TO MONDAY, EXCEPT THE HIGH SINKS JUST A
LITTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA ALLOWING THE FLOW TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. IN RESPONSE, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A DEGREE OR TWO
FROM MONDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP AROUND 12-14C, SO LOOK
FOR LOWER 80S TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD. STILL DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND
A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PERHAPS AS LOW AS 7500FT SO ANY
DAYTIME CUMULUS THAT FORMS WILL BE VERY SHALLOW. TUESDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER REPEAT OF MONDAY NIGHT WHICH IS A REPEAT OF SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH IS A REPEAT OF SATURDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOME. GFS & IT`S ENSEMBLE MEAN
KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE STRONG, MEANING LOTS O` SUN. ECMWF FLATTENS
THE RIDGE IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO THE
NORTH AND BRINGS IN SOME MOISTURE TO NORTHERN NY LATE IN THE DAY
SUGGESTING A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ABOUT. WITH THE BLEND I USED, I
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION, BUT PAINTED IN SOME 10-20%
POPS IN NORTHERN NY. THE BASIC WORDED FORECAST WILL INDICATE A DRY
DAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 14-16C OR SO, THUS EVEN MORE OF
THE AREA WILL BE POKING ABOVE THE 80F MARK -- WITH EVEN A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE CHAMPLAIN/ST LAWRENCE VALLEY PUSHING INTO THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY....CRNT RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY ATTM...SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE CPV. VIS/CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRECIP IS MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. ALSO...NOTED SOME MVFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CIGS AT MSS. THINKING THIS RAIN WL ARRIVE AT PBG BY 08Z AND INTO
BTV BY 09Z...WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. SOUNDINGS SHOW LLVL
MOISTURE INCREASING AT SLK WITH SOME IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BTWN 09Z-
14Z THIS MORNING. HAVE USED A TEMPO GROUP TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDS AND 200 TO 400 FT AGL WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL AT MPV OVERNIGHT. FOR
THURSDAY...EXPECTING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH SOME PERIODS OF
MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE WITH MVFR VIS BTWN 3-5SM. WL USE TEMPO
GROUP TO COVER HEAVIER PERIOD OF SHOWERS AT BTV/RUT. A SLOW CLRING
TREND WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 18Z...WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MORNING FOG WL BE LIKELY AT SLK/MPV
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BOTH SAT AND SUNDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-
13Z. LOOK FOR MAINLY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER VALUES AT MSS AND RUTLAND.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 144 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING
SYSTEM (ASOS) AT SAINT JOHNSBURY VERMONT (K1V4) HAS NOT
TRANSMITTED AN OBSERVATION SINCE 1954Z (354 PM EDT) ON WEDNESDAY
AUGUST 20TH. AN ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN WILL CHECK INTO THIS
PROBLEM LATER THIS MORNING. NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME
AS TO WHEN THIS PROBLEM WILL BE FIXED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...TABER
EQUIPMENT...WGH










000
FXUS61 KBTV 210544
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
144 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY FOR MAINLY NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE WESTERN HALF OF
VERMONT. DRIER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THAT HIGH WILL STICK AROUND, GIVING
US A LONG STRING OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER THAT WILL LAST FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 144 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF
THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS
TIME ...WITH SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE
LOWERED POPS ACROSS VERMONT OVERNIGHT AND RAISED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK. BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST GFS LAMP
GUIDANCE HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. NAM/GFS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LOW OPENS
UP/WEAKENS AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO ONCE AGAIN BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED
ACROSS NORTHERN NY /LIKELY POPS/ ON THURSDAY...THOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS VT IS ON THURSDAY. AIRMASS STILL
IS FAIRLY MOIST WITH PWS AROUND 1.5" WITH 12Z NAM SHOWING CAPE
VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDER. THE THUNDER RISK FOR THURSDAY IS
LIMITED GIVEN EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ALSO LOSING
BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING GIVEN WEAKENING UPPER LOW. THEREFORE I`VE
ONLY GONE WITH SHOWERS THURSDAY. DESPITE 850 TEMPS OF +11 TO
+13C...OVERCAST WILL ONLY KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. OVERALL
DECREASING TREND IN POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER DISTURBANCE
PIVOTS SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

LARGE GRADIENT IN STORM TOTAL QPF /SPANNING WEDNESDAY AFTN THROUGH
12Z FRIDAY/. AMOUNTS RANGE FROM NIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM...UNDER 0.5" FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...TO UP TO 1.25" FOR
THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AREAS.

BY FRIDAY...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD TOWARD
QUEBEC AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS
TO AN OPEN WAVE. SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
BUT SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL WIN OUT BY LATE IN THE
DAY INTO THE EVENING. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THERMAL PROFILES FOR
FRIDAY...BUT MORE BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO
TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...12Z GUIDANCE FROM GFS, GFS ENSEMBLES
AND ECMWF ARE ALL IN PRETTY DARN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER
AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL PREVIOUS RUNS, THUS I WOULD RATE MY
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AS ABOVE NORMAL. IN SUMMARY, LARGE
SCALE BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY, RESULTING IN DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK (SUMMER WILL HANG ON NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAKES THIS
FORECASTER PERSONALLY HAPPY). WITH THE CLOSENESS AMONG THE MODELS, I
SAW NO REASON TO SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATE FROM THE PURE BLEND BETWEEN
THEM ALL. HERE ARE THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA.
STILL SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SO CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT IN
GENERAL THE FORECAST IS A DRY ONE. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY NOSING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. LUCKILY THIS TIME OF THE YEAR THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS ARE AT THEIR WARMEST SO I DON`T EXPECT ANY
ISSUES WITH WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AS WE WOULD SEE IN
THE SPRING OR EVEN EARLY SUMMER. HOWEVER IT WILL SET UP AN A
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WHERE IT WILL BE COOLEST EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND WARMEST IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 10-12C (EAST TO WEST), HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY TO UPPER 70S IN
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT.
VALLEY FOG WILL PROBABLY FORM AS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY...DITTO.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH ON TOP OF THE AREA
ALONG WITH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT. NET RESULT: LOTS OF SUN AND VERY
LIGHT WINDS. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO THE 12-13C RANGE AND WITH
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING, WE SHOULD REALIZE THE FULL POTENTIAL OF WARMTH
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. MONDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER REPEAT OF CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY...ALMOST IDENTICAL TO MONDAY, EXCEPT THE HIGH SINKS JUST A
LITTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA ALLOWING THE FLOW TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. IN RESPONSE, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A DEGREE OR TWO
FROM MONDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP AROUND 12-14C, SO LOOK
FOR LOWER 80S TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD. STILL DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND
A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PERHAPS AS LOW AS 7500FT SO ANY
DAYTIME CUMULUS THAT FORMS WILL BE VERY SHALLOW. TUESDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER REPEAT OF MONDAY NIGHT WHICH IS A REPEAT OF SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH IS A REPEAT OF SATURDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOME. GFS & IT`S ENSEMBLE MEAN
KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE STRONG, MEANING LOTS O` SUN. ECMWF FLATTENS
THE RIDGE IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO THE
NORTH AND BRINGS IN SOME MOISTURE TO NORTHERN NY LATE IN THE DAY
SUGGESTING A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ABOUT. WITH THE BLEND I USED, I
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION, BUT PAINTED IN SOME 10-20%
POPS IN NORTHERN NY. THE BASIC WORDED FORECAST WILL INDICATE A DRY
DAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 14-16C OR SO, THUS EVEN MORE OF
THE AREA WILL BE POKING ABOVE THE 80F MARK -- WITH EVEN A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE CHAMPLAIN/ST LAWRENCE VALLEY PUSHING INTO THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY....OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS BUT AREA
OF SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z AND
THUS EXPECTING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WITH THE SHOWERS. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z AND CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
VFR. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
FROM THE SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY AFTER 12Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...00Z FRI TO 00Z SAT...AREAS
OF MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS.

00Z SAT ONWARD...VFR, EXCEPT IFR IN LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG
(PRIMARILY MPV AND SLK).

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 144 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING
SYSTEM (ASOS) AT SAINT JOHNSBURY VERMONT (K1V4) HAS NOT
TRANSMITTED AN OBSERVATION SINCE 1954Z (354 PM EDT) ON WEDNESDAY
AUGUST 20TH. AN ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN WILL CHECK INTO THIS
PROBLEM LATER THIS MORNING. NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME
AS TO WHEN THIS PROBLEM WILL BE FIXED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH
EQUIPMENT...WGH






000
FXUS61 KALY 210527
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
126 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. THIS WEEKEND...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT ALL
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM...HAVE EXPANDED THE AREA OF LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT TO
REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE AREA WITH
CHANCE POPS FURTHER TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN PAST NIGHTS...GENERALLY IN THE
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CONVEYOR BELT OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH THE BEST FORCING LOOKING TO BE FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. RAIN COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AT
TIMES...BUT RIGHT NOW NOT ENOUGH SIGNALS TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING
THE GRIDS. WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY IN THE ADIRONDACKS
(OROGRAPHICS WILL LIKELY ASSIST WITH ASCENT THERE)...LIKELY POPS
MOST OTHER AREAS...EXCEPT CHANCE POPS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE
FORCING AND PWATS LOOKS LOWER.

WE ARE NOT NECESSARILY EXPECTED A COMPLETE WASHOUT ON THURSDAY...BUT
IT WILL BE DAMP AND GRAY WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS JUST ABOUT ANY
TIME.

DUE TO THE CANOPY OF CLOUDS...WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY TOP IN
THE 70S...BUT IT WILL BE HUMID. IF WE WERE TO GET MORE BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...INSTABILITY (WHICH WE EXPECT TO BE LIMITED) WOULD
INCREASE. FOR NOW...JUST A CHANCE OF MAINLY NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...(WIND FIELDS ARE FAIRLY WEAK) BUT AGAIN MORE
SUNSHINE COULD MEAN TALLER THUNDER.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ACTUAL OCCLUDE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION...KEEPING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND (LOWER CHANCES AGAIN SOUTH). TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL A LITTLE MORE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST...TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW OPENS AND MOVES TO OUR EAST.
HOWEVER...INITIALLY THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
LOW SO LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND OR POCKETS OF
DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR
THIS DAY...CARRIED LOW POPS (30) FOR ELEVATIONS 1000 FEET OR
HIGHER...SLIGHT POPS (20) FOR VALLEY AREAS.

DUE TO THE CLOUDS...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION...LEANED WITH THE (BUT
NOT ALL THE WAY) THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. WE LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70 ON FRIDAY...WITH MOST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN REMAINING IN THE 60S ALL DAY LONG.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE IMPROVES BUT WE WILL LIKELY GET UNDER AN
INVERSION WHICH COULD KEEP CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE PATCHY AROUND
AT LEAST INTO THE EVENING. WE HAVE NO MENTION OF DRIZZLE RIGHT NOW
BUT IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT DIP BACK MAINLY INTO
THE 50S...LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...UPPER 50S FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

BY SATURDAY...RIDGING ALOFT LOOKS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION
AND LOOKS TO SCOUR AT LEAST SOME OF THE CLOUDS AWAY. A STRAY
AFTERNOON POP UP SHOWER CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT BUT FROM THIS
VANTAGE POINT...THE THREAT OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW.

SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP WARM THE COLUMN UP A LITTLE. H850 TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE AROUND +12C WHICH WITH NORMAL MIXING...WOULD YIELD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE
FORECAST. A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH OF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A MORE DOMINANT PRESENCE AS
WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ORIENTATION AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SW TO NE RIGHT OVER OUR AREA WILL PROVIDE CONTINUAL TRANQUIL
WEATHER OVER THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ALSO FAVORS LARGE
SCALE SFC DIVERGENCE AS OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN 80-90 KT JET AS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST 20/12Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
PAST THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH
WILL BE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY AS TIME GETS CLOSER TO MID NEXT WEEK.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WILL
SHIFT MORE TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE APEX OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OF OUR REGION AS WE GO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AS WE WORK TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR
ALL SITES AS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAINS MOVE EASTWARD AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS WE GO INTO 04-06Z THURSDAY...RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BEGIN TO FILL INTO ALL TAF SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AT ALL TAF SITES AS INITIAL RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS APPROACH
THE REGION. AS WE APPROACH 12Z THURSDAY...ALL SITES WILL BE MVFR/IFR
AS THE MORE STEADIER LIGHT RAIN MOVE INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AT
KGFL/KALB/KPSF. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS THIS LARGE AREA OF RAIN WILL BE SLOW MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MVFR AND AT TIMES IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO
AROUND 5-8 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS WE GO TOWARD DAYBREAK PAST
12Z.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD
INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...EXCEPT SCATTERED SOUTH OF ALBANY. WE ASSIGNED A "WET
FLAG" TO ALL THE NFDRS EXCEPT STONYKILL. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS. THERE COULD BE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL CONTAINING LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DAMP FOR FRIDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

BY SATURDAY WE SHOULD RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WHICH COULD LINGER INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THE NEXT COULD OF DAYS...GENERALLY OVER
60 PERCENT...SOMETIMES CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT. AFTERNOON RH VALUES
SHOULD RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS BY SATURDAY...CLOSER TO 50
PERCENT.

THE WIND WILL VARIABLE TO SOUTH 5-10 MPH ON THURSDAY...SHIFTING TO
THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION BRINGING
PWAT AIR OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO
THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE
CATSKILLS. UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. DUE TO LOW
RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE LITTLE
IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WELL
OVER AN INCH. THIS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT THESE SHOULD BE
LIGHTER AS THE PWAT VALUES WILL DROP BACK DOWN CLOSER TO AN INCH.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...GJM/HWJIV/LFM/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










000
FXUS61 KALY 210527
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
126 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN. THIS WEEKEND...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT ALL
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM...HAVE EXPANDED THE AREA OF LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT TO
REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE AREA WITH
CHANCE POPS FURTHER TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN PAST NIGHTS...GENERALLY IN THE
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CONVEYOR BELT OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH THE BEST FORCING LOOKING TO BE FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. RAIN COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AT
TIMES...BUT RIGHT NOW NOT ENOUGH SIGNALS TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING
THE GRIDS. WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY IN THE ADIRONDACKS
(OROGRAPHICS WILL LIKELY ASSIST WITH ASCENT THERE)...LIKELY POPS
MOST OTHER AREAS...EXCEPT CHANCE POPS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE
FORCING AND PWATS LOOKS LOWER.

WE ARE NOT NECESSARILY EXPECTED A COMPLETE WASHOUT ON THURSDAY...BUT
IT WILL BE DAMP AND GRAY WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS JUST ABOUT ANY
TIME.

DUE TO THE CANOPY OF CLOUDS...WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY TOP IN
THE 70S...BUT IT WILL BE HUMID. IF WE WERE TO GET MORE BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...INSTABILITY (WHICH WE EXPECT TO BE LIMITED) WOULD
INCREASE. FOR NOW...JUST A CHANCE OF MAINLY NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...(WIND FIELDS ARE FAIRLY WEAK) BUT AGAIN MORE
SUNSHINE COULD MEAN TALLER THUNDER.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ACTUAL OCCLUDE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION...KEEPING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND (LOWER CHANCES AGAIN SOUTH). TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL A LITTLE MORE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST...TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW OPENS AND MOVES TO OUR EAST.
HOWEVER...INITIALLY THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
LOW SO LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND OR POCKETS OF
DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR
THIS DAY...CARRIED LOW POPS (30) FOR ELEVATIONS 1000 FEET OR
HIGHER...SLIGHT POPS (20) FOR VALLEY AREAS.

DUE TO THE CLOUDS...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION...LEANED WITH THE (BUT
NOT ALL THE WAY) THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. WE LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70 ON FRIDAY...WITH MOST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN REMAINING IN THE 60S ALL DAY LONG.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE IMPROVES BUT WE WILL LIKELY GET UNDER AN
INVERSION WHICH COULD KEEP CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE PATCHY AROUND
AT LEAST INTO THE EVENING. WE HAVE NO MENTION OF DRIZZLE RIGHT NOW
BUT IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT DIP BACK MAINLY INTO
THE 50S...LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...UPPER 50S FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

BY SATURDAY...RIDGING ALOFT LOOKS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION
AND LOOKS TO SCOUR AT LEAST SOME OF THE CLOUDS AWAY. A STRAY
AFTERNOON POP UP SHOWER CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT BUT FROM THIS
VANTAGE POINT...THE THREAT OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW.

SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP WARM THE COLUMN UP A LITTLE. H850 TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE AROUND +12C WHICH WITH NORMAL MIXING...WOULD YIELD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE
FORECAST. A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH OF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A MORE DOMINANT PRESENCE AS
WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ORIENTATION AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SW TO NE RIGHT OVER OUR AREA WILL PROVIDE CONTINUAL TRANQUIL
WEATHER OVER THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ALSO FAVORS LARGE
SCALE SFC DIVERGENCE AS OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN 80-90 KT JET AS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST 20/12Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
PAST THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH
WILL BE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY AS TIME GETS CLOSER TO MID NEXT WEEK.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WILL
SHIFT MORE TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE APEX OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OF OUR REGION AS WE GO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AS WE WORK TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR
ALL SITES AS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAINS MOVE EASTWARD AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS WE GO INTO 04-06Z THURSDAY...RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BEGIN TO FILL INTO ALL TAF SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AT ALL TAF SITES AS INITIAL RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS APPROACH
THE REGION. AS WE APPROACH 12Z THURSDAY...ALL SITES WILL BE MVFR/IFR
AS THE MORE STEADIER LIGHT RAIN MOVE INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AT
KGFL/KALB/KPSF. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS THIS LARGE AREA OF RAIN WILL BE SLOW MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MVFR AND AT TIMES IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO
AROUND 5-8 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS WE GO TOWARD DAYBREAK PAST
12Z.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD
INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...EXCEPT SCATTERED SOUTH OF ALBANY. WE ASSIGNED A "WET
FLAG" TO ALL THE NFDRS EXCEPT STONYKILL. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS. THERE COULD BE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL CONTAINING LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DAMP FOR FRIDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

BY SATURDAY WE SHOULD RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WHICH COULD LINGER INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THE NEXT COULD OF DAYS...GENERALLY OVER
60 PERCENT...SOMETIMES CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT. AFTERNOON RH VALUES
SHOULD RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS BY SATURDAY...CLOSER TO 50
PERCENT.

THE WIND WILL VARIABLE TO SOUTH 5-10 MPH ON THURSDAY...SHIFTING TO
THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION BRINGING
PWAT AIR OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO
THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE
CATSKILLS. UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. DUE TO LOW
RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE LITTLE
IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WELL
OVER AN INCH. THIS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT THESE SHOULD BE
LIGHTER AS THE PWAT VALUES WILL DROP BACK DOWN CLOSER TO AN INCH.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...GJM/HWJIV/LFM/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV











000
FXUS61 KBTV 210212
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1012 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY FOR MAINLY NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE WESTERN HALF OF
VERMONT. DRIER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THAT HIGH WILL STICK AROUND, GIVING
US A LONG STRING OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER THAT WILL LAST FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1012 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHERN NY CONTINUES TO SEE RAIN
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE SLV
AND ERN ADKS. THESE SHOWERS ARE SLOW TO PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND HALF INCH...AND
ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS A LITTLE OVER AN INCH...AS INDICATED BY
RADAR. LOCAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE GRADUAL TRACK OF
PRECIP WELL...WITH SOME ISO TO SCT SHOWERS TRYING TO DEVELOP IN
THE UPPER HUDSON/LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...WHILE MAIN SHIELD OF
PRECIP REMAINS EAST OF THE CPV TIL AFTER 06Z. THIS SLOW
PROGRESSION IS DUE TO THE SOMEWHAT STALLED NATURE/MOVEMENT OF
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER LAKE HURON.

TEMPS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS EASTERN VT WHERE
BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK UNDER OVERCAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. NAM/GFS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LOW OPENS
UP/WEAKENS AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO ONCE AGAIN BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED
ACROSS NORTHERN NY /LIKELY POPS/ ON THURSDAY...THOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS VT IS ON THURSDAY. AIRMASS STILL
IS FAIRLY MOIST WITH PWS AROUND 1.5" WITH 12Z NAM SHOWING CAPE
VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDER. THE THUNDER RISK FOR THURSDAY IS
LIMITED GIVEN EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ALSO LOSING
BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING GIVEN WEAKENING UPPER LOW. THEREFORE I`VE
ONLY GONE WITH SHOWERS THURSDAY. DESPITE 850 TEMPS OF +11 TO
+13C...OVERCAST WILL ONLY KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. OVERALL
DECREASING TREND IN POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER DISTURBANCE
PIVOTS SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

LARGE GRADIENT IN STORM TOTAL QPF /SPANNING WEDNESDAY AFTN THROUGH
12Z FRIDAY/. AMOUNTS RANGE FROM NIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM...UNDER 0.5" FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...TO UP TO 1.25" FOR
THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AREAS.

BY FRIDAY...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD TOWARD
QUEBEC AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS
TO AN OPEN WAVE. SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
BUT SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL WIN OUT BY LATE IN THE
DAY INTO THE EVENING. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THERMAL PROFILES FOR
FRIDAY...BUT MORE BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO
TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...12Z GUIDANCE FROM GFS, GFS ENSEMBLES
AND ECMWF ARE ALL IN PRETTY DARN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER
AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL PREVIOUS RUNS, THUS I WOULD RATE MY
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AS ABOVE NORMAL. IN SUMMARY, LARGE
SCALE BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY, RESULTING IN DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK (SUMMER WILL HANG ON NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAKES THIS
FORECASTER PERSONALLY HAPPY). WITH THE CLOSENESS AMONG THE MODELS, I
SAW NO REASON TO SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATE FROM THE PURE BLEND BETWEEN
THEM ALL. HERE ARE THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA.
STILL SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SO CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT IN
GENERAL THE FORECAST IS A DRY ONE. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY NOSING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. LUCKILY THIS TIME OF THE YEAR THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS ARE AT THEIR WARMEST SO I DON`T EXPECT ANY
ISSUES WITH WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AS WE WOULD SEE IN
THE SPRING OR EVEN EARLY SUMMER. HOWEVER IT WILL SET UP AN A
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WHERE IT WILL BE COOLEST EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND WARMEST IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 10-12C (EAST TO WEST), HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY TO UPPER 70S IN
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT.
VALLEY FOG WILL PROBABLY FORM AS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY...DITTO.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH ON TOP OF THE AREA
ALONG WITH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT. NET RESULT: LOTS OF SUN AND VERY
LIGHT WINDS. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO THE 12-13C RANGE AND WITH
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING, WE SHOULD REALIZE THE FULL POTENTIAL OF WARMTH
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. MONDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER REPEAT OF CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY...ALMOST IDENTICAL TO MONDAY, EXCEPT THE HIGH SINKS JUST A
LITTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA ALLOWING THE FLOW TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. IN RESPONSE, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A DEGREE OR TWO
FROM MONDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP AROUND 12-14C, SO LOOK
FOR LOWER 80S TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD. STILL DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND
A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PERHAPS AS LOW AS 7500FT SO ANY
DAYTIME CUMULUS THAT FORMS WILL BE VERY SHALLOW. TUESDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER REPEAT OF MONDAY NIGHT WHICH IS A REPEAT OF SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH IS A REPEAT OF SATURDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOME. GFS & IT`S ENSEMBLE MEAN
KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE STRONG, MEANING LOTS O` SUN. ECMWF FLATTENS
THE RIDGE IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO THE
NORTH AND BRINGS IN SOME MOISTURE TO NORTHERN NY LATE IN THE DAY
SUGGESTING A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ABOUT. WITH THE BLEND I USED, I
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION, BUT PAINTED IN SOME 10-20%
POPS IN NORTHERN NY. THE BASIC WORDED FORECAST WILL INDICATE A DRY
DAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 14-16C OR SO, THUS EVEN MORE OF
THE AREA WILL BE POKING ABOVE THE 80F MARK -- WITH EVEN A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE CHAMPLAIN/ST LAWRENCE VALLEY PUSHING INTO THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY....OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS BUT AREA
OF SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z AND
THUS EXPECTING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WITH THE SHOWERS. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z AND CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
VFR. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
FROM THE SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY AFTER 12Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...00Z FRI TO 00Z SAT...AREAS
OF MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS.

00Z SAT ONWARD...VFR, EXCEPT IFR IN LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG
(PRIMARILY MPV AND SLK).

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...KGM/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 210212
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1012 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY FOR MAINLY NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE WESTERN HALF OF
VERMONT. DRIER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THAT HIGH WILL STICK AROUND, GIVING
US A LONG STRING OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER THAT WILL LAST FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1012 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NORTHERN NY CONTINUES TO SEE RAIN
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE SLV
AND ERN ADKS. THESE SHOWERS ARE SLOW TO PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND HALF INCH...AND
ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS A LITTLE OVER AN INCH...AS INDICATED BY
RADAR. LOCAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE GRADUAL TRACK OF
PRECIP WELL...WITH SOME ISO TO SCT SHOWERS TRYING TO DEVELOP IN
THE UPPER HUDSON/LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...WHILE MAIN SHIELD OF
PRECIP REMAINS EAST OF THE CPV TIL AFTER 06Z. THIS SLOW
PROGRESSION IS DUE TO THE SOMEWHAT STALLED NATURE/MOVEMENT OF
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER LAKE HURON.

TEMPS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS EASTERN VT WHERE
BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK UNDER OVERCAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. NAM/GFS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LOW OPENS
UP/WEAKENS AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO ONCE AGAIN BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED
ACROSS NORTHERN NY /LIKELY POPS/ ON THURSDAY...THOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS VT IS ON THURSDAY. AIRMASS STILL
IS FAIRLY MOIST WITH PWS AROUND 1.5" WITH 12Z NAM SHOWING CAPE
VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDER. THE THUNDER RISK FOR THURSDAY IS
LIMITED GIVEN EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ALSO LOSING
BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING GIVEN WEAKENING UPPER LOW. THEREFORE I`VE
ONLY GONE WITH SHOWERS THURSDAY. DESPITE 850 TEMPS OF +11 TO
+13C...OVERCAST WILL ONLY KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. OVERALL
DECREASING TREND IN POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER DISTURBANCE
PIVOTS SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

LARGE GRADIENT IN STORM TOTAL QPF /SPANNING WEDNESDAY AFTN THROUGH
12Z FRIDAY/. AMOUNTS RANGE FROM NIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM...UNDER 0.5" FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...TO UP TO 1.25" FOR
THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AREAS.

BY FRIDAY...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD TOWARD
QUEBEC AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS
TO AN OPEN WAVE. SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
BUT SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL WIN OUT BY LATE IN THE
DAY INTO THE EVENING. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THERMAL PROFILES FOR
FRIDAY...BUT MORE BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO
TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...12Z GUIDANCE FROM GFS, GFS ENSEMBLES
AND ECMWF ARE ALL IN PRETTY DARN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER
AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL PREVIOUS RUNS, THUS I WOULD RATE MY
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AS ABOVE NORMAL. IN SUMMARY, LARGE
SCALE BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY, RESULTING IN DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK (SUMMER WILL HANG ON NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAKES THIS
FORECASTER PERSONALLY HAPPY). WITH THE CLOSENESS AMONG THE MODELS, I
SAW NO REASON TO SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATE FROM THE PURE BLEND BETWEEN
THEM ALL. HERE ARE THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA.
STILL SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SO CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT IN
GENERAL THE FORECAST IS A DRY ONE. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY NOSING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. LUCKILY THIS TIME OF THE YEAR THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS ARE AT THEIR WARMEST SO I DON`T EXPECT ANY
ISSUES WITH WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AS WE WOULD SEE IN
THE SPRING OR EVEN EARLY SUMMER. HOWEVER IT WILL SET UP AN A
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WHERE IT WILL BE COOLEST EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND WARMEST IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 10-12C (EAST TO WEST), HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY TO UPPER 70S IN
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT.
VALLEY FOG WILL PROBABLY FORM AS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY...DITTO.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH ON TOP OF THE AREA
ALONG WITH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT. NET RESULT: LOTS OF SUN AND VERY
LIGHT WINDS. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO THE 12-13C RANGE AND WITH
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING, WE SHOULD REALIZE THE FULL POTENTIAL OF WARMTH
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. MONDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER REPEAT OF CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY...ALMOST IDENTICAL TO MONDAY, EXCEPT THE HIGH SINKS JUST A
LITTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA ALLOWING THE FLOW TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. IN RESPONSE, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A DEGREE OR TWO
FROM MONDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP AROUND 12-14C, SO LOOK
FOR LOWER 80S TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD. STILL DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND
A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PERHAPS AS LOW AS 7500FT SO ANY
DAYTIME CUMULUS THAT FORMS WILL BE VERY SHALLOW. TUESDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER REPEAT OF MONDAY NIGHT WHICH IS A REPEAT OF SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH IS A REPEAT OF SATURDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOME. GFS & IT`S ENSEMBLE MEAN
KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE STRONG, MEANING LOTS O` SUN. ECMWF FLATTENS
THE RIDGE IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO THE
NORTH AND BRINGS IN SOME MOISTURE TO NORTHERN NY LATE IN THE DAY
SUGGESTING A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ABOUT. WITH THE BLEND I USED, I
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION, BUT PAINTED IN SOME 10-20%
POPS IN NORTHERN NY. THE BASIC WORDED FORECAST WILL INDICATE A DRY
DAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 14-16C OR SO, THUS EVEN MORE OF
THE AREA WILL BE POKING ABOVE THE 80F MARK -- WITH EVEN A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE CHAMPLAIN/ST LAWRENCE VALLEY PUSHING INTO THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY....OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS BUT AREA
OF SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z AND
THUS EXPECTING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WITH THE SHOWERS. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z AND CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
VFR. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
FROM THE SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY AFTER 12Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...00Z FRI TO 00Z SAT...AREAS
OF MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS.

00Z SAT ONWARD...VFR, EXCEPT IFR IN LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG
(PRIMARILY MPV AND SLK).

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...KGM/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH








000
FXUS61 KALY 210154
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
954 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR FILERS IN. THIS
WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT
ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 950 PM EDT...A BROAD AREA OF RAIN IS FILLING IN BEHIND SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND SOME WEAK LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD
IN PARTS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS.
OTHERWISE...RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. LATEST MESOANALYSIS DATA SHOWS HIGHER
PWAT VALUES OFF TO OUR WEST THAT WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE REGION
SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE STEADY RAINFALL AS WE GO INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

MEANWHILE...THE DEEP MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES...WAS STILL TO OUR WEST.

THERE MIGHT BE A BRIEF LULL DURING THE LATE EVENING BEFORE MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WORK FROM THE WEST ARRIVE LATER
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. THESE WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL
JET.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN PAST NIGHTS...GENERALLY LOWS IN
THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CONVEYOR BELT OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH THE BEST FORCING LOOKING TO BE FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. RAIN COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AT
TIMES...BUT RIGHT NOW NOT ENOUGH SIGNALS TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING
THE GRIDS. WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY IN THE ADIRONDACKS
(OROGRAPHICS WILL LIKELY ASSIST WITH ASCENT THERE)...LIKELY POPS
MOST OTHER AREAS...EXCEPT CHANCE POPS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE
FORCING AND PWATS LOOKS LOWER.

WE ARE NOT NECESSARILY EXPECTED A COMPLETE WASHOUT ON THURSDAY...BUT
IT WILL BE DAMP AND GRAY WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS JUST ABOUT ANY
TIME.

DUE TO THE CANOPY OF CLOUDS...WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY TOP IN
THE 70S...BUT IT WILL BE HUMID. IF WE WERE TO GET MORE BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...INSTABILITY (WHICH WE EXPECT TO BE LIMITED) WOULD
INCREASE. FOR NOW...JUST A CHANCE OF MAINLY NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...(WIND FIELDS ARE FAIRLY WEAK) BUT AGAIN MORE
SUNSHINE COULD MEAN TALLER THUNDER.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ACTUAL OCCLUDE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION...KEEPING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND (LOWER CHANCES AGAIN SOUTH). TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL A LITTLE MORE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST...TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW OPENS AND MOVES TO OUR EAST.
HOWEVER...INITIALLY THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
LOW SO LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND OR POCKETS OF
DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR
THIS DAY...CARRIED LOW POPS (30) FOR ELEVATIONS 1000 FEET OR
HIGHER...SLIGHT POPS (20) FOR VALLEY AREAS.

DUE TO THE CLOUDS...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION...LEANED WITH THE (BUT
NOT ALL THE WAY) THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. WE LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70 ON FRIDAY...WITH MOST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN REMAINING IN THE 60S ALL DAY LONG.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE IMPROVES BUT WE WILL LIKELY GET UNDER AN
INVERSION WHICH COULD KEEP CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE PATCHY AROUND
AT LEAST INTO THE EVENING. WE HAVE NO MENTION OF DRIZZLE RIGHT NOW
BUT IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT DIP BACK MAINLY INTO
THE 50S...LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...UPPER 50S FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

BY SATURDAY...RIDGING ALOFT LOOKS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION
AND LOOKS TO SCOUR AT LEAST SOME OF THE CLOUDS AWAY. A STRAY
AFTERNOON POP UP SHOWER CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT BUT FROM THIS
VANTAGE POINT...THE THREAT OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW.

SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP WARM THE COLUMN UP A LITTLE. H850 TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE AROUND +12C WHICH WITH NORMAL MIXING...WOULD YIELD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE
FORECAST. A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH OF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A MORE DOMINANT PRESENCE AS
WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ORIENTATION AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SW TO NE RIGHT OVER OUR AREA WILL PROVIDE CONTINUAL TRANQUIL
WEATHER OVER THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ALSO FAVORS LARGE
SCALE SFC DIVERGENCE AS OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN 80-90 KT JET AS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST 20/12Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
PAST THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH
WILL BE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY AS TIME GETS CLOSER TO MID NEXT WEEK.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WILL
SHIFT MORE TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE APEX OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OF OUR REGION AS WE GO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AS WE WORK TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES AS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAINS MOVE EASTWARD AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS WE GO INTO 04-06Z THURSDAY...RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
FILL INTO ALL TAF SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES AS INITIAL RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS APPROACH THE REGION.
AS WE APPROACH 12Z THURSDAY...ALL SITES WILL BE MVFR/IFR AS THE MORE
STEADIER LIGHT RAIN MOVE INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AT
KGFL/KALB/KPSF. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS THIS LARGE AREA OF RAIN WILL BE SLOW MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MVFR AND AT TIMES IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO
AROUND 5-8 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS WE GO TOWARD DAYBREAK PAST
12Z.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD
INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...EXCEPT SCATTERED SOUTH OF ALBANY. WE ASSIGNED A "WET
FLAG" TO ALL THE NFDRS EXCEPT STONYKILL. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS. THERE COULD BE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL CONTAINING LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DAMP FOR FRIDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

BY SATURDAY WE SHOULD RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WHICH COULD LINGER INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THE NEXT COULD OF DAYS...GENERALLY OVER
60 PERCENT...SOMETIMES CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT. AFTERNOON RH VALUES
SHOULD RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS BY SATURDAY...CLOSER TO 50
PERCENT.

THE WIND WILL VARIABLE TO SOUTH 5-10 MPH ON THURSDAY...SHIFTING TO
THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION BRINGING
PWAT AIR OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO
THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE
CATSKILLS. UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. DUE TO LOW
RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE LITTLE
IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WELL
OVER AN INCH. THIS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT THESE SHOULD BE
LIGHTER AS THE PWAT VALUES WILL DROP BACK DOWN CLOSER TO AN INCH.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/LFM/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KALY 210154
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
954 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR FILERS IN. THIS
WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT
ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 950 PM EDT...A BROAD AREA OF RAIN IS FILLING IN BEHIND SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND SOME WEAK LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD
IN PARTS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS.
OTHERWISE...RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. LATEST MESOANALYSIS DATA SHOWS HIGHER
PWAT VALUES OFF TO OUR WEST THAT WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE REGION
SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE STEADY RAINFALL AS WE GO INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

MEANWHILE...THE DEEP MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES...WAS STILL TO OUR WEST.

THERE MIGHT BE A BRIEF LULL DURING THE LATE EVENING BEFORE MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WORK FROM THE WEST ARRIVE LATER
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. THESE WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL
JET.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN PAST NIGHTS...GENERALLY LOWS IN
THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CONVEYOR BELT OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH THE BEST FORCING LOOKING TO BE FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. RAIN COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AT
TIMES...BUT RIGHT NOW NOT ENOUGH SIGNALS TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING
THE GRIDS. WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY IN THE ADIRONDACKS
(OROGRAPHICS WILL LIKELY ASSIST WITH ASCENT THERE)...LIKELY POPS
MOST OTHER AREAS...EXCEPT CHANCE POPS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE
FORCING AND PWATS LOOKS LOWER.

WE ARE NOT NECESSARILY EXPECTED A COMPLETE WASHOUT ON THURSDAY...BUT
IT WILL BE DAMP AND GRAY WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS JUST ABOUT ANY
TIME.

DUE TO THE CANOPY OF CLOUDS...WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY TOP IN
THE 70S...BUT IT WILL BE HUMID. IF WE WERE TO GET MORE BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...INSTABILITY (WHICH WE EXPECT TO BE LIMITED) WOULD
INCREASE. FOR NOW...JUST A CHANCE OF MAINLY NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...(WIND FIELDS ARE FAIRLY WEAK) BUT AGAIN MORE
SUNSHINE COULD MEAN TALLER THUNDER.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ACTUAL OCCLUDE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION...KEEPING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND (LOWER CHANCES AGAIN SOUTH). TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL A LITTLE MORE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST...TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW OPENS AND MOVES TO OUR EAST.
HOWEVER...INITIALLY THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
LOW SO LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND OR POCKETS OF
DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR
THIS DAY...CARRIED LOW POPS (30) FOR ELEVATIONS 1000 FEET OR
HIGHER...SLIGHT POPS (20) FOR VALLEY AREAS.

DUE TO THE CLOUDS...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION...LEANED WITH THE (BUT
NOT ALL THE WAY) THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. WE LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70 ON FRIDAY...WITH MOST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN REMAINING IN THE 60S ALL DAY LONG.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE IMPROVES BUT WE WILL LIKELY GET UNDER AN
INVERSION WHICH COULD KEEP CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE PATCHY AROUND
AT LEAST INTO THE EVENING. WE HAVE NO MENTION OF DRIZZLE RIGHT NOW
BUT IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT DIP BACK MAINLY INTO
THE 50S...LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...UPPER 50S FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

BY SATURDAY...RIDGING ALOFT LOOKS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION
AND LOOKS TO SCOUR AT LEAST SOME OF THE CLOUDS AWAY. A STRAY
AFTERNOON POP UP SHOWER CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT BUT FROM THIS
VANTAGE POINT...THE THREAT OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW.

SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP WARM THE COLUMN UP A LITTLE. H850 TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE AROUND +12C WHICH WITH NORMAL MIXING...WOULD YIELD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE
FORECAST. A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH OF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A MORE DOMINANT PRESENCE AS
WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ORIENTATION AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SW TO NE RIGHT OVER OUR AREA WILL PROVIDE CONTINUAL TRANQUIL
WEATHER OVER THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ALSO FAVORS LARGE
SCALE SFC DIVERGENCE AS OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN 80-90 KT JET AS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST 20/12Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
PAST THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH
WILL BE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY AS TIME GETS CLOSER TO MID NEXT WEEK.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WILL
SHIFT MORE TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE APEX OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OF OUR REGION AS WE GO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AS WE WORK TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES AS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAINS MOVE EASTWARD AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS WE GO INTO 04-06Z THURSDAY...RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
FILL INTO ALL TAF SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES AS INITIAL RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS APPROACH THE REGION.
AS WE APPROACH 12Z THURSDAY...ALL SITES WILL BE MVFR/IFR AS THE MORE
STEADIER LIGHT RAIN MOVE INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AT
KGFL/KALB/KPSF. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS THIS LARGE AREA OF RAIN WILL BE SLOW MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MVFR AND AT TIMES IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO
AROUND 5-8 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS WE GO TOWARD DAYBREAK PAST
12Z.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD
INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...EXCEPT SCATTERED SOUTH OF ALBANY. WE ASSIGNED A "WET
FLAG" TO ALL THE NFDRS EXCEPT STONYKILL. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS. THERE COULD BE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL CONTAINING LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DAMP FOR FRIDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

BY SATURDAY WE SHOULD RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WHICH COULD LINGER INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THE NEXT COULD OF DAYS...GENERALLY OVER
60 PERCENT...SOMETIMES CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT. AFTERNOON RH VALUES
SHOULD RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS BY SATURDAY...CLOSER TO 50
PERCENT.

THE WIND WILL VARIABLE TO SOUTH 5-10 MPH ON THURSDAY...SHIFTING TO
THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION BRINGING
PWAT AIR OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO
THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE
CATSKILLS. UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. DUE TO LOW
RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE LITTLE
IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WELL
OVER AN INCH. THIS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT THESE SHOULD BE
LIGHTER AS THE PWAT VALUES WILL DROP BACK DOWN CLOSER TO AN INCH.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/LFM/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KBTV 202350
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
750 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY FOR MAINLY NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE WESTERN HALF OF
VERMONT. DRIER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THAT HIGH WILL STICK AROUND, GIVING
US A LONG STRING OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER THAT WILL LAST FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 742 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OVER ST LAWRENCE COUNTY...SLOW TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD...BUT KNOCKING ON FRANKLIN COUNTY`S DOOR AS OF
730 PM. WITH LACK OF INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY HAVE
LOWERED CHC OF TSTORMS TO ISOLATED/SCHC. RADAR SHOWING MOST AREAS
THAT HAVE RECEIVED PRECIP...GETTING ABOUT QUARTER TO HALF INCH
WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS A LITTLE OVER AN INCH. EXPECT PRECIP
PROGRESSION TO CONTINUE TO BE SLOW...WITH BTV12 AND BTV 4 MODELS
PERFORMING WELL. SO HAVE SLOWED PRECIP REACHING CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN CPV TIL AFTER 06Z...IN MORE LINE WITH LOCAL MODELS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING IN
PLACE ACROSS VT. ONGOING LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL NY STATE. IT HAS BEEN VERY
SLOW TO MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY WITH LIGHT DEEP-LAYER WINDS
PRODUCING SLOW STORM MOTIONS /LESS THAN 20 KTS/. AIRMASS IS
SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE FURTHER SOUTH...BUT LAPS CAPE VALUES RANGE
FROM NIL ACROSS VT TO AROUND 1500 J/KG IN THE LOWER ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONSENSUS /HRRR...BTV-4
AND NMM-ARW/ LIFTS THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO NORTHERN
NY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE AND WILL MENTION
THIS IN HWO. 1-/3-HR FFG IS RELATIVELY HIGH (ABOUT 2.5" NEEDED IN
3 HR PERIOD) SO NOT THINKING ANY FLASH FLOODING. PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE RAIN SHIELD NEVER MAKES IT INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING...AND AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO CENTRAL
VERMONT. POPS RANGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE ACROSS VERMONT TO
LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

TEMPS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS EASTERN VT WHERE
BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK UNDER OVERCAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. NAM/GFS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LOW OPENS
UP/WEAKENS AS IT PROGESSES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO ONCE AGAIN BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED
ACROSS NORTHERN NY /LIKELY POPS/ ON THURSDAY...THOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS VT IS ON THURSDAY. AIRMASS STILL
IS FAIRLY MOIST WITH PWS AROUND 1.5" WITH 12Z NAM SHOWING CAPE
VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDER. THE THUNDER RISK FOR THURSDAY IS
LIMITED GIVEN EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ALSO LOSING
BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING GIVEN WEAKENING UPPER LOW. THEREFORE I`VE
ONLY GONE WITH SHOWERS THURSDAY. DESPITE 850 TEMPS OF +11 TO
+13C...OVERCAST WILL ONLY KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. OVERALL
DECREASING TREND IN POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER DISTURBANCE
PIVOTS SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

LARGE GRADIENT IN STORM TOTAL QPF /SPANNING WEDNESDAY AFTN THROUGH
12Z FRIDAY/. AMOUNTS RANGE FROM NIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM...UNDER 0.5" FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...TO UP TO 1.25" FOR
THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AREAS.

BY FRIDAY...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD TOWARD
QUEBEC AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS
TO AN OPEN WAVE. SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
BUT SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL WIN OUT BY LATE IN THE
DAY INTO THE EVENING. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THERMAL PROFILES FOR
FRIDAY...BUT MORE BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO
TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...12Z GUIDANCE FROM GFS, GFS ENSEMBLES
AND ECMWF ARE ALL IN PRETTY DARN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER
AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL PREVIOUS RUNS, THUS I WOULD RATE MY
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AS ABOVE NORMAL. IN SUMMARY, LARGE
SCALE BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY, RESULTING IN DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK (SUMMER WILL HANG ON NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAKES THIS
FORECASTER PERSONALLY HAPPY). WITH THE CLOSENESS AMONG THE MODELS, I
SAW NO REASON TO SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATE FROM THE PURE BLEND BETWEEN
THEM ALL. HERE ARE THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA.
STILL SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SO CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT IN
GENERAL THE FORECAST IS A DRY ONE. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY NOSING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. LUCKILY THIS TIME OF THE YEAR THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS ARE AT THEIR WARMEST SO I DON`T EXPECT ANY
ISSUES WITH WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AS WE WOULD SEE IN
THE SPRING OR EVEN EARLY SUMMER. HOWEVER IT WILL SET UP AN A
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WHERE IT WILL BE COOLEST EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND WARMEST IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 10-12C (EAST TO WEST), HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY TO UPPER 70S IN
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT.
VALLEY FOG WILL PROBABLY FORM AS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY...DITTO.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH ON TOP OF THE AREA
ALONG WITH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT. NET RESULT: LOTS OF SUN AND VERY
LIGHT WINDS. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO THE 12-13C RANGE AND WITH
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING, WE SHOULD REALIZE THE FULL POTENTIAL OF WARMTH
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. MONDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER REPEAT OF CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY...ALMOST IDENTICAL TO MONDAY, EXCEPT THE HIGH SINKS JUST A
LITTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA ALLOWING THE FLOW TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. IN RESPONSE, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A DEGREE OR TWO
FROM MONDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP AROUND 12-14C, SO LOOK
FOR LOWER 80S TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD. STILL DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND
A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PERHAPS AS LOW AS 7500FT SO ANY
DAYTIME CUMULUS THAT FORMS WILL BE VERY SHALLOW. TUESDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER REPEAT OF MONDAY NIGHT WHICH IS A REPEAT OF SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH IS A REPEAT OF SATURDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOME. GFS & IT`S ENSEMBLE MEAN
KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE STRONG, MEANING LOTS O` SUN. ECMWF FLATTENS
THE RIDGE IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO THE
NORTH AND BRINGS IN SOME MOISTURE TO NORTHERN NY LATE IN THE DAY
SUGGESTING A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ABOUT. WITH THE BLEND I USED, I
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION, BUT PAINTED IN SOME 10-20%
POPS IN NORTHERN NY. THE BASIC WORDED FORECAST WILL INDICATE A DRY
DAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 14-16C OR SO, THUS EVEN MORE OF
THE AREA WILL BE POKING ABOVE THE 80F MARK -- WITH EVEN A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE CHAMPLAIN/ST LAWRENCE VALLEY PUSHING INTO THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY....OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS BUT AREA
OF SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z AND
THUS EXPECTING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WITH THE SHOWERS. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z AND CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
VFR. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
FROM THE SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY AFTER 12Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...00Z FRI TO 00Z SAT...AREAS
OF MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS.

00Z SAT ONWARD...VFR, EXCEPT IFR IN LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG
(PRIMARILY MPV AND SLK).

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...KGM/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...EVENSON/NASH







000
FXUS61 KBTV 202342
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
742 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY FOR MAINLY NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE WESTERN HALF OF
VERMONT. DRIER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THAT HIGH WILL STICK AROUND, GIVING
US A LONG STRING OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER THAT WILL LAST FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 742 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OVER ST LAWRENCE COUNTY...SLOW TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD...BUT KNOCKING ON FRANKLIN COUNTY`S DOOR AS OF
730 PM. WITH LACK OF INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY HAVE
LOWERED CHC OF TSTORMS TO ISOLATED/SCHC. RADAR SHOWING MOST AREAS
THAT HAVE RECEIVED PRECIP...GETTING ABOUT QUARTER TO HALF INCH
WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS A LITTLE OVER AN INCH. EXPECT PRECIP
PROGRESSION TO CONTINUE TO BE SLOW...WITH BTV12 AND BTV 4 MODELS
PERFORMING WELL. SO HAVE SLOWED PRECIP REACHING CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN CPV TIL AFTER 06Z...IN MORE LINE WITH LOCAL MODELS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING IN
PLACE ACROSS VT. ONGOING LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL NY STATE. IT HAS BEEN VERY
SLOW TO MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY WITH LIGHT DEEP-LAYER WINDS
PRODUCING SLOW STORM MOTIONS /LESS THAN 20 KTS/. AIRMASS IS
SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE FURTHER SOUTH...BUT LAPS CAPE VALUES RANGE
FROM NIL ACROSS VT TO AROUND 1500 J/KG IN THE LOWER ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONSENSUS /HRRR...BTV-4
AND NMM-ARW/ LIFTS THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO NORTHERN
NY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE AND WILL MENTION
THIS IN HWO. 1-/3-HR FFG IS RELATIVELY HIGH (ABOUT 2.5" NEEDED IN
3 HR PERIOD) SO NOT THINKING ANY FLASH FLOODING. PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE RAIN SHIELD NEVER MAKES IT INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING...AND AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO CENTRAL
VERMONT. POPS RANGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE ACROSS VERMONT TO
LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

TEMPS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS EASTERN VT WHERE
BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK UNDER OVERCAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. NAM/GFS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LOW OPENS
UP/WEAKENS AS IT PROGESSES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO ONCE AGAIN BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED
ACROSS NORTHERN NY /LIKELY POPS/ ON THURSDAY...THOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS VT IS ON THURSDAY. AIRMASS STILL
IS FAIRLY MOIST WITH PWS AROUND 1.5" WITH 12Z NAM SHOWING CAPE
VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDER. THE THUNDER RISK FOR THURSDAY IS
LIMITED GIVEN EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ALSO LOSING
BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING GIVEN WEAKENING UPPER LOW. THEREFORE I`VE
ONLY GONE WITH SHOWERS THURSDAY. DESPITE 850 TEMPS OF +11 TO
+13C...OVERCAST WILL ONLY KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. OVERALL
DECREASING TREND IN POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER DISTURBANCE
PIVOTS SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

LARGE GRADIENT IN STORM TOTAL QPF /SPANNING WEDNESDAY AFTN THROUGH
12Z FRIDAY/. AMOUNTS RANGE FROM NIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM...UNDER 0.5" FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...TO UP TO 1.25" FOR
THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AREAS.

BY FRIDAY...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD TOWARD
QUEBEC AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS
TO AN OPEN WAVE. SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
BUT SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL WIN OUT BY LATE IN THE
DAY INTO THE EVENING. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THERMAL PROFILES FOR
FRIDAY...BUT MORE BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO
TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...12Z GUIDANCE FROM GFS, GFS ENSEMBLES
AND ECMWF ARE ALL IN PRETTY DARN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER
AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL PREVIOUS RUNS, THUS I WOULD RATE MY
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AS ABOVE NORMAL. IN SUMMARY, LARGE
SCALE BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY, RESULTING IN DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK (SUMMER WILL HANG ON NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAKES THIS
FORECASTER PERSONALLY HAPPY). WITH THE CLOSENESS AMONG THE MODELS, I
SAW NO REASON TO SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATE FROM THE PURE BLEND BETWEEN
THEM ALL. HERE ARE THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA.
STILL SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SO CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT IN
GENERAL THE FORECAST IS A DRY ONE. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY NOSING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. LUCKILY THIS TIME OF THE YEAR THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS ARE AT THEIR WARMEST SO I DON`T EXPECT ANY
ISSUES WITH WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AS WE WOULD SEE IN
THE SPRING OR EVEN EARLY SUMMER. HOWEVER IT WILL SET UP AN A
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WHERE IT WILL BE COOLEST EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND WARMEST IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 10-12C (EAST TO WEST), HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY TO UPPER 70S IN
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT.
VALLEY FOG WILL PROBABLY FORM AS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS
GENERALL IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY...DITTO.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH ON TOP OF THE AREA
ALONG WITH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT. NET RESULT: LOTS OF SUN AND VERY
LIGHT WINDS. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO THE 12-13C RANGE AND WITH
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING, WE SHOULD REALIZE THE FULL POTENTIAL OF WARMTH
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. MONDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER REPEAT OF CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY...ALMOST IDENTICAL TO MONDAY, EXCEPT THE HIGH SINKS JUST A
LITTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA ALLOWING THE FLOW TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. IN RESPONSE, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A DEGREE OR TWO
FROM MONDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP AROUND 12-14C, SO LOOK
FOR LOWER 80S TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD. STILL DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND
A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PERHAPS AS LOW AS 7500FT SO ANY
DAYTIME CUMULUS THAT FORMS WILL BE VERY SHALLOW. TUESDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER REPEAT OF MONDAY NIGHT WHICH IS A REPEAT OF SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH IS A REPEAT OF SATURDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOME. GFS & IT`S ENSEMBLE MEAN
KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE STRONG, MEANING LOTS O` SUN. ECMWF FLATTENS
THE RIDGE IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO THE
NORTH AND BRINGS IN SOME MOISTURE TO NORTHERN NY LATE IN THE DAY
SUGGESTING A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ABOUT. WITH THE BLEND I USED, I
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION, BUT PAINTED IN SOME 10-20%
POPS IN NORTHERN NY. THE BASIC WORDED FORECAST WILL INDICATE A DRY
DAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 14-16C OR SO, THUS EVEN MORE OF
THE AREA WILL BE POKING ABOVE THE 80F MARK -- WITH EVEN A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE CHAMPLAIN/ST LAWRENCE VALLEY PUSHING INTO THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY....CURRENTLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION. DAYTIME
HEATING CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE ADIRONDACKS AND ANTICIPATE ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD BE FORMING
SOON (SO HAVE COVERED SLK WITH VCSH THE NEXT FEW HOURS). WATCHING
SLOW MOVING AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OFF TO THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST. ULTIMATELY THIS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND AFFECT TAF LOCATIONS SUCH AS KMSS & KSLK. HARD TO
SPECIFICALLY PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE AT EXACT
TIMES, SO IN GENERAL THE CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SPECIFICS IN
THE FORECAST IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT. HAVE INCLUDED THE VCSH/VCTS.
TOOK A STAB AT A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
OCCURRING AFTER 00Z FOR THE NORTHERN NEW YORK LOCATIONS WITH
PREDOMINANTE -SHRA IN THE TAFS. FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST, THE SHOWERS WON`T BE GETTING EVEN CLOSE ENOUGH UNTIL
WELL AFTER 00Z AND PROBABLY WON`T BE AS CONCENTRATED. THUS VCSH
FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE AGAIN HITS MONTPELIER
(MPV) HARD WITH LIFR CONDITIONS IN BOTH CEILING AND VISIBILITY
WITH DENSE FOG. THINK IT WILL BE MORE STRATUS AND LESS FOG
TONIGHT, BUT THE END RESULT COULD BE THE SAME WITH A CLOUD DECK
JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE GROUND. FOR THURSDAY, THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NOW OFF TO OUR WEST WILL
BE MORE OR LESS OVER THE AREA. KEPT IT VFR FOR VERMONT SIDE,
THOUGH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY BE ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z THUR TO 00Z SAT...AREAS OF MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS.

00Z SAT ONWARD...VFR, EXCEPT IFR IN LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG
(PRIMARILY MPV AND SLK).

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...KGM/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH








000
FXUS61 KBTV 202342
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
742 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY FOR MAINLY NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE WESTERN HALF OF
VERMONT. DRIER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THAT HIGH WILL STICK AROUND, GIVING
US A LONG STRING OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER THAT WILL LAST FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 742 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OVER ST LAWRENCE COUNTY...SLOW TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD...BUT KNOCKING ON FRANKLIN COUNTY`S DOOR AS OF
730 PM. WITH LACK OF INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY HAVE
LOWERED CHC OF TSTORMS TO ISOLATED/SCHC. RADAR SHOWING MOST AREAS
THAT HAVE RECEIVED PRECIP...GETTING ABOUT QUARTER TO HALF INCH
WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS A LITTLE OVER AN INCH. EXPECT PRECIP
PROGRESSION TO CONTINUE TO BE SLOW...WITH BTV12 AND BTV 4 MODELS
PERFORMING WELL. SO HAVE SLOWED PRECIP REACHING CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN CPV TIL AFTER 06Z...IN MORE LINE WITH LOCAL MODELS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING IN
PLACE ACROSS VT. ONGOING LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL NY STATE. IT HAS BEEN VERY
SLOW TO MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY WITH LIGHT DEEP-LAYER WINDS
PRODUCING SLOW STORM MOTIONS /LESS THAN 20 KTS/. AIRMASS IS
SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE FURTHER SOUTH...BUT LAPS CAPE VALUES RANGE
FROM NIL ACROSS VT TO AROUND 1500 J/KG IN THE LOWER ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONSENSUS /HRRR...BTV-4
AND NMM-ARW/ LIFTS THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO NORTHERN
NY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE AND WILL MENTION
THIS IN HWO. 1-/3-HR FFG IS RELATIVELY HIGH (ABOUT 2.5" NEEDED IN
3 HR PERIOD) SO NOT THINKING ANY FLASH FLOODING. PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE RAIN SHIELD NEVER MAKES IT INTO THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING...AND AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO CENTRAL
VERMONT. POPS RANGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE ACROSS VERMONT TO
LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

TEMPS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS EASTERN VT WHERE
BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK UNDER OVERCAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. NAM/GFS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LOW OPENS
UP/WEAKENS AS IT PROGESSES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO ONCE AGAIN BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED
ACROSS NORTHERN NY /LIKELY POPS/ ON THURSDAY...THOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS VT IS ON THURSDAY. AIRMASS STILL
IS FAIRLY MOIST WITH PWS AROUND 1.5" WITH 12Z NAM SHOWING CAPE
VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDER. THE THUNDER RISK FOR THURSDAY IS
LIMITED GIVEN EXPECTED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ALSO LOSING
BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING GIVEN WEAKENING UPPER LOW. THEREFORE I`VE
ONLY GONE WITH SHOWERS THURSDAY. DESPITE 850 TEMPS OF +11 TO
+13C...OVERCAST WILL ONLY KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. OVERALL
DECREASING TREND IN POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER DISTURBANCE
PIVOTS SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

LARGE GRADIENT IN STORM TOTAL QPF /SPANNING WEDNESDAY AFTN THROUGH
12Z FRIDAY/. AMOUNTS RANGE FROM NIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM...UNDER 0.5" FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...TO UP TO 1.25" FOR
THE ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AREAS.

BY FRIDAY...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD TOWARD
QUEBEC AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS
TO AN OPEN WAVE. SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
BUT SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL WIN OUT BY LATE IN THE
DAY INTO THE EVENING. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THERMAL PROFILES FOR
FRIDAY...BUT MORE BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO
TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...12Z GUIDANCE FROM GFS, GFS ENSEMBLES
AND ECMWF ARE ALL IN PRETTY DARN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER
AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL PREVIOUS RUNS, THUS I WOULD RATE MY
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AS ABOVE NORMAL. IN SUMMARY, LARGE
SCALE BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY, RESULTING IN DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK (SUMMER WILL HANG ON NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAKES THIS
FORECASTER PERSONALLY HAPPY). WITH THE CLOSENESS AMONG THE MODELS, I
SAW NO REASON TO SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATE FROM THE PURE BLEND BETWEEN
THEM ALL. HERE ARE THE DAILY SPECIFICS...

SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA.
STILL SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SO CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT IN
GENERAL THE FORECAST IS A DRY ONE. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY NOSING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. LUCKILY THIS TIME OF THE YEAR THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS ARE AT THEIR WARMEST SO I DON`T EXPECT ANY
ISSUES WITH WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AS WE WOULD SEE IN
THE SPRING OR EVEN EARLY SUMMER. HOWEVER IT WILL SET UP AN A
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WHERE IT WILL BE COOLEST EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND WARMEST IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 10-12C (EAST TO WEST), HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY TO UPPER 70S IN
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT.
VALLEY FOG WILL PROBABLY FORM AS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS
GENERALL IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY...DITTO.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH ON TOP OF THE AREA
ALONG WITH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT. NET RESULT: LOTS OF SUN AND VERY
LIGHT WINDS. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO THE 12-13C RANGE AND WITH
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING, WE SHOULD REALIZE THE FULL POTENTIAL OF WARMTH
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. MONDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER REPEAT OF CLEAR/CALM/PATCHY FOG.

TUESDAY...ALMOST IDENTICAL TO MONDAY, EXCEPT THE HIGH SINKS JUST A
LITTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA ALLOWING THE FLOW TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. IN RESPONSE, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A DEGREE OR TWO
FROM MONDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP AROUND 12-14C, SO LOOK
FOR LOWER 80S TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD. STILL DEEP LAYER RIDGING AND
A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PERHAPS AS LOW AS 7500FT SO ANY
DAYTIME CUMULUS THAT FORMS WILL BE VERY SHALLOW. TUESDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER REPEAT OF MONDAY NIGHT WHICH IS A REPEAT OF SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH IS A REPEAT OF SATURDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOME. GFS & IT`S ENSEMBLE MEAN
KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE STRONG, MEANING LOTS O` SUN. ECMWF FLATTENS
THE RIDGE IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO THE
NORTH AND BRINGS IN SOME MOISTURE TO NORTHERN NY LATE IN THE DAY
SUGGESTING A FEW SHOWERS/T-STORMS ABOUT. WITH THE BLEND I USED, I
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION, BUT PAINTED IN SOME 10-20%
POPS IN NORTHERN NY. THE BASIC WORDED FORECAST WILL INDICATE A DRY
DAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 14-16C OR SO, THUS EVEN MORE OF
THE AREA WILL BE POKING ABOVE THE 80F MARK -- WITH EVEN A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE CHAMPLAIN/ST LAWRENCE VALLEY PUSHING INTO THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY....CURRENTLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION. DAYTIME
HEATING CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE ADIRONDACKS AND ANTICIPATE ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD BE FORMING
SOON (SO HAVE COVERED SLK WITH VCSH THE NEXT FEW HOURS). WATCHING
SLOW MOVING AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OFF TO THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST. ULTIMATELY THIS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND AFFECT TAF LOCATIONS SUCH AS KMSS & KSLK. HARD TO
SPECIFICALLY PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE AT EXACT
TIMES, SO IN GENERAL THE CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SPECIFICS IN
THE FORECAST IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT. HAVE INCLUDED THE VCSH/VCTS.
TOOK A STAB AT A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
OCCURRING AFTER 00Z FOR THE NORTHERN NEW YORK LOCATIONS WITH
PREDOMINANTE -SHRA IN THE TAFS. FOR THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST, THE SHOWERS WON`T BE GETTING EVEN CLOSE ENOUGH UNTIL
WELL AFTER 00Z AND PROBABLY WON`T BE AS CONCENTRATED. THUS VCSH
FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE AGAIN HITS MONTPELIER
(MPV) HARD WITH LIFR CONDITIONS IN BOTH CEILING AND VISIBILITY
WITH DENSE FOG. THINK IT WILL BE MORE STRATUS AND LESS FOG
TONIGHT, BUT THE END RESULT COULD BE THE SAME WITH A CLOUD DECK
JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE GROUND. FOR THURSDAY, THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NOW OFF TO OUR WEST WILL
BE MORE OR LESS OVER THE AREA. KEPT IT VFR FOR VERMONT SIDE,
THOUGH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY BE ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z THUR TO 00Z SAT...AREAS OF MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS.

00Z SAT ONWARD...VFR, EXCEPT IFR IN LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG
(PRIMARILY MPV AND SLK).

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...KGM/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH







000
FXUS61 KALY 202328
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
728 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR FILERS IN. THIS
WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT
ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 650PM EDT..A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY...AND WILL BE SPREADING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO MONTGOMERY/FULTON AND HAMILTON COUNTIES. THE
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS LINE HAS RESULTED IN RADAR EST QPF OF 1-1.8
INCHES LOCALLY...AND HAS PROMPTED A FLOOD ADVISORY FOR S HERK CO.
ELSEWHERE SKIES REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATED 1000-2000 J/KG OF SURFACE
JUST AHEAD OF THIS LINE. WHILE THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN DIM ACTIVITY...THIS CAPE WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP THIS ACTIVITY GOING SVRL MORE HOURS. HAVE INCR
POPS IN W PORTIONS OF FCA AND ADJUSTED TIMING.

MEANWHILE...THE DEEP MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES...WAS STILL TO OUR WEST.

THERE MIGHT BE A BRIEF LULL DURING THE LATE EVENING BEFORE MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WORK FROM THE WEST ARRIVE LATER OVERNIGHT. THESE
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT...THE NOSE OF A LOW
LEVEL JET...AND TONGUE OF PWAT AIR AROUND 1.5 INCHES MOVING...INTO
OUR WESTERN AREAS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN PAST NIGHTS...GENERALLY LOWS IN
THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CONVEYOR BELT OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH THE BEST FORCING LOOKING TO BE FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. RAIN COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AT
TIMES...BUT RIGHT NOW NOT ENOUGH SIGNALS TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING
THE GRIDS. WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY IN THE ADIRONDACKS
(OROGRAPHICS WILL LIKELY ASSIST WITH ASCENT THERE)...LIKELY POPS
MOST OTHER AREAS...EXCEPT CHANCE POPS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE
FORCING AND PWATS LOOKS LOWER.

WE ARE NOT NECESSARILY EXPECTED A COMPLETE WASHOUT ON THURSDAY...BUT
IT WILL BE DAMP AND GRAY WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS JUST ABOUT ANY
TIME.

DUE TO THE CANOPY OF CLOUDS...WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY TOP IN
THE 70S...BUT IT WILL BE HUMID. IF WE WERE TO GET MORE BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...INSTABILITY (WHICH WE EXPECT TO BE LIMITED) WOULD
INCREASE. FOR NOW...JUST A CHANCE OF MAINLY NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...(WIND FIELDS ARE FAIRLY WEAK) BUT AGAIN MORE
SUNSHINE COULD MEAN TALLER THUNDER.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ACTUAL OCCLUDE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION...KEEPING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND (LOWER CHANCES AGAIN SOUTH). TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL A LITTLE MORE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST...TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW OPENS AND MOVES TO OUR EAST.
HOWEVER...INITIALLY THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
LOW SO LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND OR POCKETS OF
DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR
THIS DAY...CARRIED LOW POPS (30) FOR ELEVATIONS 1000 FEET OR
HIGHER...SLIGHT POPS (20) FOR VALLEY AREAS.

DUE TO THE CLOUDS...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION...LEANED WITH THE (BUT
NOT ALL THE WAY) THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. WE LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70 ON FRIDAY...WITH MOST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN REMAINING IN THE 60S ALL DAY LONG.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE IMPROVES BUT WE WILL LIKELY GET UNDER AN
INVERSION WHICH COULD KEEP CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE PATCHY AROUND
AT LEAST INTO THE EVENING. WE HAVE NO MENTION OF DRIZZLE RIGHT NOW
BUT IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT DIP BACK MAINLY INTO
THE 50S...LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...UPPER 50S FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

BY SATURDAY...RIDGING ALOFT LOOKS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION
AND LOOKS TO SCOUR AT LEAST SOME OF THE CLOUDS AWAY. A STRAY
AFTERNOON POP UP SHOWER CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT BUT FROM THIS
VANTAGE POINT...THE THREAT OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW.

SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP WARM THE COLUMN UP A LITTLE. H850 TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE AROUND +12C WHICH WITH NORMAL MIXING...WOULD YIELD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE
FORECAST. A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH OF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A MORE DOMINANT PRESENCE AS
WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ORIENTATION AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SW TO NE RIGHT OVER OUR AREA WILL PROVIDE CONTINUAL TRANQUIL
WEATHER OVER THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ALSO FAVORS LARGE
SCALE SFC DIVERGENCE AS OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN 80-90 KT JET AS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST 20/12Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
PAST THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH
WILL BE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY AS TIME GETS CLOSER TO MID NEXT WEEK.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WILL
SHIFT MORE TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE APEX OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OF OUR REGION AS WE GO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AS WE WORK TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES AS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAINS MOVE EASTWARD AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS WE GO INTO 04-06Z THURSDAY...RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
FILL INTO ALL TAF SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES AS INITIAL RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS APPROACH THE REGION.
AS WE APPROACH 12Z THURSDAY...ALL SITES WILL BE MVFR/IFR AS THE MORE
STEADIER LIGHT RAIN MOVE INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AT
KGFL/KALB/KPSF. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS THIS LARGE AREA OF RAIN WILL BE SLOW MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MVFR AND AT TIMES IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO
AROUND 5-8 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS WE GO TOWARD DAYBREAK PAST
12Z.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD
INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...EXCEPT SCATTERED SOUTH OF ALBANY. WE ASSIGNED A "WET
FLAG" TO ALL THE NFDRS EXCEPT STONYKILL. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS. THERE COULD BE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL CONTAINING LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DAMP FOR FRIDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

BY SATURDAY WE SHOULD RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WHICH COULD LINGER INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THE NEXT COULD OF DAYS...GENERALLY OVER
60 PERCENT...SOMETIMES CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT. AFTERNOON RH VALUES
SHOULD RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS BY SATURDAY...CLOSER TO 50
PERCENT.

THE WIND WILL VARIABLE TO SOUTH 5-10 MPH ON THURSDAY...SHIFTING TO
THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION BRINGING
PWAT AIR OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO
THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE
CATSKILLS. UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. DUE TO LOW
RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE LITTLE
IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WELL
OVER AN INCH. THIS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT THESE SHOULD BE
LIGHTER AS THE PWAT VALUES WILL DROP BACK DOWN CLOSER TO AN INCH.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/SNYDER/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KALY 202328
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
728 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR FILERS IN. THIS
WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT
ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 650PM EDT..A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY...AND WILL BE SPREADING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO MONTGOMERY/FULTON AND HAMILTON COUNTIES. THE
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS LINE HAS RESULTED IN RADAR EST QPF OF 1-1.8
INCHES LOCALLY...AND HAS PROMPTED A FLOOD ADVISORY FOR S HERK CO.
ELSEWHERE SKIES REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATED 1000-2000 J/KG OF SURFACE
JUST AHEAD OF THIS LINE. WHILE THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN DIM ACTIVITY...THIS CAPE WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP THIS ACTIVITY GOING SVRL MORE HOURS. HAVE INCR
POPS IN W PORTIONS OF FCA AND ADJUSTED TIMING.

MEANWHILE...THE DEEP MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES...WAS STILL TO OUR WEST.

THERE MIGHT BE A BRIEF LULL DURING THE LATE EVENING BEFORE MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WORK FROM THE WEST ARRIVE LATER OVERNIGHT. THESE
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT...THE NOSE OF A LOW
LEVEL JET...AND TONGUE OF PWAT AIR AROUND 1.5 INCHES MOVING...INTO
OUR WESTERN AREAS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN PAST NIGHTS...GENERALLY LOWS IN
THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CONVEYOR BELT OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH THE BEST FORCING LOOKING TO BE FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. RAIN COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AT
TIMES...BUT RIGHT NOW NOT ENOUGH SIGNALS TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING
THE GRIDS. WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY IN THE ADIRONDACKS
(OROGRAPHICS WILL LIKELY ASSIST WITH ASCENT THERE)...LIKELY POPS
MOST OTHER AREAS...EXCEPT CHANCE POPS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE
FORCING AND PWATS LOOKS LOWER.

WE ARE NOT NECESSARILY EXPECTED A COMPLETE WASHOUT ON THURSDAY...BUT
IT WILL BE DAMP AND GRAY WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS JUST ABOUT ANY
TIME.

DUE TO THE CANOPY OF CLOUDS...WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY TOP IN
THE 70S...BUT IT WILL BE HUMID. IF WE WERE TO GET MORE BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...INSTABILITY (WHICH WE EXPECT TO BE LIMITED) WOULD
INCREASE. FOR NOW...JUST A CHANCE OF MAINLY NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...(WIND FIELDS ARE FAIRLY WEAK) BUT AGAIN MORE
SUNSHINE COULD MEAN TALLER THUNDER.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ACTUAL OCCLUDE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION...KEEPING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND (LOWER CHANCES AGAIN SOUTH). TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL A LITTLE MORE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST...TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW OPENS AND MOVES TO OUR EAST.
HOWEVER...INITIALLY THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
LOW SO LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND OR POCKETS OF
DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR
THIS DAY...CARRIED LOW POPS (30) FOR ELEVATIONS 1000 FEET OR
HIGHER...SLIGHT POPS (20) FOR VALLEY AREAS.

DUE TO THE CLOUDS...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION...LEANED WITH THE (BUT
NOT ALL THE WAY) THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. WE LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70 ON FRIDAY...WITH MOST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN REMAINING IN THE 60S ALL DAY LONG.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE IMPROVES BUT WE WILL LIKELY GET UNDER AN
INVERSION WHICH COULD KEEP CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE PATCHY AROUND
AT LEAST INTO THE EVENING. WE HAVE NO MENTION OF DRIZZLE RIGHT NOW
BUT IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT DIP BACK MAINLY INTO
THE 50S...LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...UPPER 50S FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

BY SATURDAY...RIDGING ALOFT LOOKS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION
AND LOOKS TO SCOUR AT LEAST SOME OF THE CLOUDS AWAY. A STRAY
AFTERNOON POP UP SHOWER CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT BUT FROM THIS
VANTAGE POINT...THE THREAT OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW.

SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP WARM THE COLUMN UP A LITTLE. H850 TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE AROUND +12C WHICH WITH NORMAL MIXING...WOULD YIELD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE
FORECAST. A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH OF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A MORE DOMINANT PRESENCE AS
WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ORIENTATION AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SW TO NE RIGHT OVER OUR AREA WILL PROVIDE CONTINUAL TRANQUIL
WEATHER OVER THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ALSO FAVORS LARGE
SCALE SFC DIVERGENCE AS OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN 80-90 KT JET AS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST 20/12Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
PAST THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH
WILL BE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY AS TIME GETS CLOSER TO MID NEXT WEEK.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WILL
SHIFT MORE TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE APEX OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OF OUR REGION AS WE GO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AS WE WORK TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES AS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAINS MOVE EASTWARD AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS WE GO INTO 04-06Z THURSDAY...RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
FILL INTO ALL TAF SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES AS INITIAL RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS APPROACH THE REGION.
AS WE APPROACH 12Z THURSDAY...ALL SITES WILL BE MVFR/IFR AS THE MORE
STEADIER LIGHT RAIN MOVE INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AT
KGFL/KALB/KPSF. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS THIS LARGE AREA OF RAIN WILL BE SLOW MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MVFR AND AT TIMES IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO
AROUND 5-8 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS WE GO TOWARD DAYBREAK PAST
12Z.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD
INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...EXCEPT SCATTERED SOUTH OF ALBANY. WE ASSIGNED A "WET
FLAG" TO ALL THE NFDRS EXCEPT STONYKILL. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS. THERE COULD BE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL CONTAINING LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DAMP FOR FRIDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

BY SATURDAY WE SHOULD RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WHICH COULD LINGER INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THE NEXT COULD OF DAYS...GENERALLY OVER
60 PERCENT...SOMETIMES CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT. AFTERNOON RH VALUES
SHOULD RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS BY SATURDAY...CLOSER TO 50
PERCENT.

THE WIND WILL VARIABLE TO SOUTH 5-10 MPH ON THURSDAY...SHIFTING TO
THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION BRINGING
PWAT AIR OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO
THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE
CATSKILLS. UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. DUE TO LOW
RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE LITTLE
IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WELL
OVER AN INCH. THIS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT THESE SHOULD BE
LIGHTER AS THE PWAT VALUES WILL DROP BACK DOWN CLOSER TO AN INCH.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/SNYDER/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KALY 202300
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
700 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR FILERS IN. THIS
WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT
ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 650PM EDT..A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY...AND WILL BE SPREADING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO MONTGOMERY/FULTON AND HAMILTON COUNTIES. THE
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS LINE HAS RESULTED IN RADAR EST QPF OF 1-1.8
INCHES LOCALLY...AND HAS PROMPTED A FLOOD ADVISORY FOR S HERK CO.
ELSEWHERE SKIES REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATED 1000-2000 J/KG OF SURFACE
JUST AHEAD OF THIS LINE. WHILE THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN DIM ACTIVITY...THIS CAPE WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP THIS ACTIVITY GOING SVRL MORE HOURS. HAVE INCR
POPS IN W PORTIONS OF FCA AND ADJUSTED TIMING.

MEANWHILE...THE DEEP MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES...WAS STILL TO OUR WEST.

THERE MIGHT BE A BRIEF LULL DURING THE LATE EVENING BEFORE MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WORK FROM THE WEST ARRIVE LATER OVERNIGHT. THESE
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT...THE NOSE OF A LOW
LEVEL JET...AND TONGUE OF PWAT AIR AROUND 1.5 INCHES MOVING...INTO
OUR WESTERN AREAS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN PAST NIGHTS...GENERALLY LOWS IN
THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CONVEYOR BELT OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH THE BEST FORCING LOOKING TO BE FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. RAIN COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AT
TIMES...BUT RIGHT NOW NOT ENOUGH SIGNALS TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING
THE GRIDS. WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY IN THE ADIRONDACKS
(OROGRAPHICS WILL LIKELY ASSIST WITH ASCENT THERE)...LIKELY POPS
MOST OTHER AREAS...EXCEPT CHANCE POPS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE
FORCING AND PWATS LOOKS LOWER.

WE ARE NOT NECESSARILY EXPECTED A COMPLETE WASHOUT ON THURSDAY...BUT
IT WILL BE DAMP AND GRAY WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS JUST ABOUT ANY
TIME.

DUE TO THE CANOPY OF CLOUDS...WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY TOP IN
THE 70S...BUT IT WILL BE HUMID. IF WE WERE TO GET MORE BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...INSTABILITY (WHICH WE EXPECT TO BE LIMITED) WOULD
INCREASE. FOR NOW...JUST A CHANCE OF MAINLY NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...(WIND FIELDS ARE FAIRLY WEAK) BUT AGAIN MORE
SUNSHINE COULD MEAN TALLER THUNDER.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ACTUAL OCCLUDE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION...KEEPING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND (LOWER CHANCES AGAIN SOUTH). TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL A LITTLE MORE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST...TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW OPENS AND MOVES TO OUR EAST.
HOWEVER...INITIALLY THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
LOW SO LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND OR POCKETS OF
DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR
THIS DAY...CARRIED LOW POPS (30) FOR ELEVATIONS 1000 FEET OR
HIGHER...SLIGHT POPS (20) FOR VALLEY AREAS.

DUE TO THE CLOUDS...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION...LEANED WITH THE (BUT
NOT ALL THE WAY) THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. WE LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70 ON FRIDAY...WITH MOST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN REMAINING IN THE 60S ALL DAY LONG.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE IMPROVES BUT WE WILL LIKELY GET UNDER AN
INVERSION WHICH COULD KEEP CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE PATCHY AROUND
AT LEAST INTO THE EVENING. WE HAVE NO MENTION OF DRIZZLE RIGHT NOW
BUT IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT DIP BACK MAINLY INTO
THE 50S...LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...UPPER 50S FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

BY SATURDAY...RIDGING ALOFT LOOKS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION
AND LOOKS TO SCOUR AT LEAST SOME OF THE CLOUDS AWAY. A STRAY
AFTERNOON POP UP SHOWER CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT BUT FROM THIS
VANTAGE POINT...THE THREAT OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW.

SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP WARM THE COLUMN UP A LITTLE. H850 TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE AROUND +12C WHICH WITH NORMAL MIXING...WOULD YIELD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE
FORECAST. A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH OF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A MORE DOMINANT PRESENCE AS
WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ORIENTATION AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SW TO NE RIGHT OVER OUR AREA WILL PROVIDE CONTINUAL TRANQUIL
WEATHER OVER THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ALSO FAVORS LARGE
SCALE SFC DIVERGENCE AS OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN 80-90 KT JET AS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST 20/12Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
PAST THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH
WILL BE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY AS TIME GETS CLOSER TO MID NEXT WEEK.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WILL
SHIFT MORE TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE APEX OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OF OUR REGION AS WE GO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AS WE WORK TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT IS APPROACHING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A SFC WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SCATTERED/BROKEN CUMULUS ABOVE 3500 FEET AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE AFTER
23Z. VCSH GROUPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST AT ALL THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 23Z-02Z THURSDAY. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL/WESTERN NY IS SLOWLY TRACKING EAST AND IS
TIMED TO REACH THE HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE TAF SITES...ASSOCIATED
WITH MVFR/VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE AROUND OR JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE PROB 30 ARE INDICATED DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
IN COVERAGE AND TIMING. THE TIMING OF THE END OF THE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS IN QUESTION...SO INDICATING MVFR IN FOG
AND CEILINGS 11Z-14Z...WITH VCSH...THEN VFR VISIBILITIES BUT
CONTINUED MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 14Z-15Z.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 4-8 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION
TONIGHT AND VARIABLE TO SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD
INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...EXCEPT SCATTERED SOUTH OF ALBANY. WE ASSIGNED A "WET
FLAG" TO ALL THE NFDRS EXCEPT STONYKILL. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS. THERE COULD BE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL CONTAINING LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DAMP FOR FRIDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

BY SATURDAY WE SHOULD RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WHICH COULD LINGER INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THE NEXT COULD OF DAYS...GENERALLY OVER
60 PERCENT...SOMETIMES CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT. AFTERNOON RH VALUES
SHOULD RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS BY SATURDAY...CLOSER TO 50
PERCENT.

THE WIND WILL VARIABLE TO SOUTH 5-10 MPH ON THURSDAY...SHIFTING TO
THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION BRINGING
PWAT AIR OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO
THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE
CATSKILLS. UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. DUE TO LOW
RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE LITTLE
IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WELL
OVER AN INCH. THIS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT THESE SHOULD BE
LIGHTER AS THE PWAT VALUES WILL DROP BACK DOWN CLOSER TO AN INCH.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/SNYDER/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...HWJIV/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







000
FXUS61 KALY 202300
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
700 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR FILERS IN. THIS
WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT
ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE...AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 650PM EDT..A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY...AND WILL BE SPREADING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO MONTGOMERY/FULTON AND HAMILTON COUNTIES. THE
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS LINE HAS RESULTED IN RADAR EST QPF OF 1-1.8
INCHES LOCALLY...AND HAS PROMPTED A FLOOD ADVISORY FOR S HERK CO.
ELSEWHERE SKIES REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATED 1000-2000 J/KG OF SURFACE
JUST AHEAD OF THIS LINE. WHILE THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN DIM ACTIVITY...THIS CAPE WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP THIS ACTIVITY GOING SVRL MORE HOURS. HAVE INCR
POPS IN W PORTIONS OF FCA AND ADJUSTED TIMING.

MEANWHILE...THE DEEP MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES...WAS STILL TO OUR WEST.

THERE MIGHT BE A BRIEF LULL DURING THE LATE EVENING BEFORE MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WORK FROM THE WEST ARRIVE LATER OVERNIGHT. THESE
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT...THE NOSE OF A LOW
LEVEL JET...AND TONGUE OF PWAT AIR AROUND 1.5 INCHES MOVING...INTO
OUR WESTERN AREAS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN PAST NIGHTS...GENERALLY LOWS IN
THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CONVEYOR BELT OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH THE BEST FORCING LOOKING TO BE FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. RAIN COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AT
TIMES...BUT RIGHT NOW NOT ENOUGH SIGNALS TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING
THE GRIDS. WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY IN THE ADIRONDACKS
(OROGRAPHICS WILL LIKELY ASSIST WITH ASCENT THERE)...LIKELY POPS
MOST OTHER AREAS...EXCEPT CHANCE POPS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE
FORCING AND PWATS LOOKS LOWER.

WE ARE NOT NECESSARILY EXPECTED A COMPLETE WASHOUT ON THURSDAY...BUT
IT WILL BE DAMP AND GRAY WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS JUST ABOUT ANY
TIME.

DUE TO THE CANOPY OF CLOUDS...WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY TOP IN
THE 70S...BUT IT WILL BE HUMID. IF WE WERE TO GET MORE BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...INSTABILITY (WHICH WE EXPECT TO BE LIMITED) WOULD
INCREASE. FOR NOW...JUST A CHANCE OF MAINLY NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...(WIND FIELDS ARE FAIRLY WEAK) BUT AGAIN MORE
SUNSHINE COULD MEAN TALLER THUNDER.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ACTUAL OCCLUDE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION...KEEPING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND (LOWER CHANCES AGAIN SOUTH). TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL A LITTLE MORE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST...TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW OPENS AND MOVES TO OUR EAST.
HOWEVER...INITIALLY THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
LOW SO LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND OR POCKETS OF
DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR
THIS DAY...CARRIED LOW POPS (30) FOR ELEVATIONS 1000 FEET OR
HIGHER...SLIGHT POPS (20) FOR VALLEY AREAS.

DUE TO THE CLOUDS...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION...LEANED WITH THE (BUT
NOT ALL THE WAY) THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. WE LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70 ON FRIDAY...WITH MOST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN REMAINING IN THE 60S ALL DAY LONG.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE IMPROVES BUT WE WILL LIKELY GET UNDER AN
INVERSION WHICH COULD KEEP CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE PATCHY AROUND
AT LEAST INTO THE EVENING. WE HAVE NO MENTION OF DRIZZLE RIGHT NOW
BUT IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT DIP BACK MAINLY INTO
THE 50S...LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...UPPER 50S FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

BY SATURDAY...RIDGING ALOFT LOOKS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION
AND LOOKS TO SCOUR AT LEAST SOME OF THE CLOUDS AWAY. A STRAY
AFTERNOON POP UP SHOWER CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT BUT FROM THIS
VANTAGE POINT...THE THREAT OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW.

SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP WARM THE COLUMN UP A LITTLE. H850 TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE AROUND +12C WHICH WITH NORMAL MIXING...WOULD YIELD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE
FORECAST. A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH OF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A MORE DOMINANT PRESENCE AS
WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ORIENTATION AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SW TO NE RIGHT OVER OUR AREA WILL PROVIDE CONTINUAL TRANQUIL
WEATHER OVER THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ALSO FAVORS LARGE
SCALE SFC DIVERGENCE AS OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN 80-90 KT JET AS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST 20/12Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
PAST THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH
WILL BE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY AS TIME GETS CLOSER TO MID NEXT WEEK.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WILL
SHIFT MORE TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE APEX OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OF OUR REGION AS WE GO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AS WE WORK TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT IS APPROACHING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A SFC WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SCATTERED/BROKEN CUMULUS ABOVE 3500 FEET AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE AFTER
23Z. VCSH GROUPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST AT ALL THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 23Z-02Z THURSDAY. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL/WESTERN NY IS SLOWLY TRACKING EAST AND IS
TIMED TO REACH THE HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE TAF SITES...ASSOCIATED
WITH MVFR/VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE AROUND OR JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE PROB 30 ARE INDICATED DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
IN COVERAGE AND TIMING. THE TIMING OF THE END OF THE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS IN QUESTION...SO INDICATING MVFR IN FOG
AND CEILINGS 11Z-14Z...WITH VCSH...THEN VFR VISIBILITIES BUT
CONTINUED MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 14Z-15Z.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 4-8 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION
TONIGHT AND VARIABLE TO SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD
INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...EXCEPT SCATTERED SOUTH OF ALBANY. WE ASSIGNED A "WET
FLAG" TO ALL THE NFDRS EXCEPT STONYKILL. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS. THERE COULD BE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL CONTAINING LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DAMP FOR FRIDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

BY SATURDAY WE SHOULD RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WHICH COULD LINGER INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THE NEXT COULD OF DAYS...GENERALLY OVER
60 PERCENT...SOMETIMES CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT. AFTERNOON RH VALUES
SHOULD RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS BY SATURDAY...CLOSER TO 50
PERCENT.

THE WIND WILL VARIABLE TO SOUTH 5-10 MPH ON THURSDAY...SHIFTING TO
THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION BRINGING
PWAT AIR OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO
THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE
CATSKILLS. UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. DUE TO LOW
RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE LITTLE
IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WELL
OVER AN INCH. THIS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT THESE SHOULD BE
LIGHTER AS THE PWAT VALUES WILL DROP BACK DOWN CLOSER TO AN INCH.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/SNYDER/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...HWJIV/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV








000
FXUS61 KALY 202035
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
430 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL IMPACT OUR REGION WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AS IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK EAST OFF THE COAST DURING FRIDAY. LOTS OF
LEVEL MOISTURE AND A FEW STRAY SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEHIND ON FRIDAY
AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES ONCE MORE. BY THE WEEKEND
HOWEVER...HIGH WILL BUILD IN TO BRING MORE SUNSHINE AND A RETURN TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP TO THE WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY AS EXPECTED...ON AN ISOLATED BASIS. THE LATEST LAPS
ANALYSIS INDICATED PLENTY OF SURFACE BASED CAPE FROM THE HUDSON
VALLEY WEST...UP TO 2000 J/KG. ONE CELL IN SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY
COUNTY HAS MOVE LITTLE IN THE PAST HOUR...PRODUCING AN INCH OR MORE
RAIN ACCORDING TO DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES. WE ISSUED A BULLET NOW ON
THIS CELL...INDICATING THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRODUCING SOME PRETTY GOOD
PONDING OF WATER.

MEANWHILE...THE DEEP MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES...WAS STILL TO OUR WEST.

SUSPECT WE WILL HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET. THEN...THERE
MIGHT BE A BRIEF LULL DURING THE EVENING BEFORE MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WORK FROM THE WEST LATER OVERNIGHT. THESE WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT...THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET...AND TONGUE
OF PWAT AIR AROUND 1.5 INCHES MOVING...INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN PAST NIGHTS...GENERALLY LOWS IN
THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CONVEYOR BELT OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH THE BEST FORCING LOOKING TO BE FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD. RAIN COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AT
TIMES...BUT RIGHT NOW NOT ENOUGH SIGNALS TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING
THE GRIDS. WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY IN THE ADIRONDACKS
(OROGRAPHICS WILL LIKELY ASSIST WITH ASCENT THERE)...LIKELY POPS
MOST OTHER AREAS...EXCEPT CHANCE POPS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE
FORCING AND PWATS LOOKS LOWER.

WE ARE NOT NECESSARILY EXPECTED A COMPLETE WASHOUT ON THURSDAY...BUT
IT WILL BE DAMP AND GRAY WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS JUST ABOUT ANY
TIME.

DUE TO THE CANOPY OF CLOUDS...WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY TOP IN
THE 70S...BUT IT WILL BE HUMID. IF WE WERE TO GET MORE BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...INSTABILITY (WHICH WE EXPECT TO BE LIMITED) WOULD
INCREASE. FOR NOW...JUST A CHANCE OF MAINLY NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...(WIND FIELDS ARE FAIRLY WEAK) BUT AGAIN MORE
SUNSHINE COULD MEAN TALLER THUNDER.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE ACTUAL OCCLUDE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION...KEEPING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND (LOWER CHANCES AGAIN SOUTH). TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL A LITTLE MORE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST...TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW OPENS AND MOVES TO OUR EAST.
HOWEVER...INITIALLY THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
LOW SO LOTS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND OR POCKETS OF
DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR
THIS DAY...CARRIED LOW POPS (30) FOR ELEVATIONS 1000 FEET OR
HIGHER...SLIGHT POPS (20) FOR VALLEY AREAS.

DUE TO THE CLOUDS...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION...LEANED WITH THE (BUT
NOT ALL THE WAY) THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. WE LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70 ON FRIDAY...WITH MOST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN REMAINING IN THE 60S ALL DAY LONG.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE IMPROVES BUT WE WILL LIKELY GET UNDER AN
INVERSION WHICH COULD KEEP CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE PATCHY AROUND
AT LEAST INTO THE EVENING. WE HAVE NO MENTION OF DRIZZLE RIGHT NOW
BUT IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT DIP BACK MAINLY INTO
THE 50S...LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...UPPER 50S FROM
ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

BY SATURDAY...RIDGING ALOFT LOOKS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION
AND LOOKS TO SCOUR AT LEAST SOME OF THE CLOUDS AWAY. A STRAY
AFTERNOON POP UP SHOWER CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT BUT FROM THIS
VANTAGE POINT...THE THREAT OF A SHOWER ON SATURDAY LOOKS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW.

SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP WARM THE COLUMN UP A LITTLE. H850 TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE AROUND +12C WHICH WITH NORMAL MIXING...WOULD YIELD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE
FORECAST. A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH OF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A MORE DOMINANT PRESENCE AS
WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ORIENTATION AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SW TO NE RIGHT OVER OUR AREA WILL PROVIDE CONTINUAL TRANQUIL
WEATHER OVER THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ALSO FAVORS LARGE
SCALE SFC DIVERGENCE AS OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN 80-90 KT JET AS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST 20/12Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
PAST THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH
WILL BE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY AS TIME GETS CLOSER TO MID NEXT WEEK.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WILL
SHIFT MORE TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE APEX OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OF OUR REGION AS WE GO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AS WE WORK TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT IS APPROACHING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A SFC WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SCATTERED/BROKEN CUMULUS ABOVE 3500 FEET AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE AFTER
23Z. VCSH GROUPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST AT ALL THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 23Z-02Z THURSDAY. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL/WESTERN NY IS SLOWLY TRACKING EAST AND IS
TIMED TO REACH THE HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE TAF SITES...ASSOCIATED
WITH MVFR/VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE AROUND OR JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE PROB 30 ARE INDICATED DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
IN COVERAGE AND TIMING. THE TIMING OF THE END OF THE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS IN QUESTION...SO INDICATING MVFR IN FOG
AND CEILINGS 11Z-14Z...WITH VCSH...THEN VFR VISIBILITIES BUT
CONTINUED MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 14Z-15Z.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 4-8 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION
TONIGHT AND VARIABLE TO SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS WE HEAD
INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...EXCEPT SCATTERED SOUTH OF ALBANY. WE ASSIGNED A "WET
FLAG" TO ALL THE NFDRS EXCEPT STONYKILL. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS. THERE COULD BE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL CONTAINING LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DAMP FOR FRIDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

BY SATURDAY WE SHOULD RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WHICH COULD LINGER INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THE NEXT COULD OF DAYS...GENERALLY OVER
60 PERCENT...SOMETIMES CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT. AFTERNOON RH VALUES
SHOULD RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS BY SATURDAY...CLOSER TO 50
PERCENT.

THE WIND WILL VARIABLE TO SOUTH 5-10 MPH ON THURSDAY...SHIFTING TO
THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION BRINGING
PWAT AIR OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO
THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE
CATSKILLS. UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. DUE TO LOW
RIVER LEVELS AND FAIRLY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE LITTLE
IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.

HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WELL
OVER AN INCH. THIS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON FRIDAY BUT THESE SHOULD BE
LIGHTER AS THE PWAT VALUES WILL DROP BACK DOWN CLOSER TO AN INCH.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...HWJIV/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV









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