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000
FXUS61 KBTV 290237
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1037 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR A THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE ON THURSDAY WHEN A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MOVED SOUTH FROM ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC EARLIER THIS EVENING DISSIPATED RAPIDLY AS THEY APPROACHED
OR ENTERED FORECAST AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. STILL
LOOKING AT A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG LATER ON.
EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S...EXCEPT SOME 50S IN THE NORMALLY
COOLER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW/RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT 850/925MB TEMPERATURES WARM FURTHER...THUS
SHOULD BE LOOKING AT AN EVEN WARMER DAY THAN TUESDAY. EXPECTING
PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ONCE AGAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS PASSING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE. ONCE AGAIN WITH
500-1200 J/KG OF MLCAPE...WILL SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF CU FIELD OVER
THE TERRAIN AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LESS CAPPING THAN TUESDAY...HOWEVER
WIND PROFILES SHOW MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF WIND SHEAR. THUS NO
SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED. WILL BE LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AREA-WIDE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE`LL BE LOOKING AT A VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES THURSDAY...BUT APPEARS MESSY. COULD BE
LOOKING AT AN INITIAL PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND POSSIBLE AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT PUSH THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THURSDAY...WHILE THE ACTUAL FRONT DOESN`T REACH THE REGION UNTIL
LATER THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER TROUGH LAGS FURTHER BEHIND...WITH
PASSAGE OF THAT NOT LIKELY UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS THERE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER...ALTHOUGH MOST FAVORED
ACROSS VERMONT AND ESPECIALLY POINTS EAST. CURRENT NAM/GFS MODEL
FORECASTS INDICATE 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE AND NEAR 40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM
SHEAR.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS TAKES ITS TIME FILTERING IN THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD END IN THE EVENING. LOWS 55-65F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...SEASONABLE TEMPS AND WEATHER THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR UPPER LOW TAKES UP
RESIDENCE OVER HUDSONS BAY LEAVING THE NORTHEAST IN PERSISTENT
BROAD TROUGH WITH THE AXIS MAINLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

WEAK PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY BE ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM JUST ABOUT ANY DAY IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP ANY RAINFALL GENERALLY BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE
VARIOUS SHORT WAVE FEATURES MAKE PINPOINTING ANY PARTICULAR DAY`S
WEATHER DIFFICULT.

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
ON SATURDAY, BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD
LOOK TO BE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW A
WEAK COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA AS A BETTER FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION.

850 TEMPS RUNNING 10-14C WITH A TREND TOWARD COOLER BY TUE AS THE
TROF SAGS SOUTH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S. SHOULD BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS EVENING APPEAR AS IF THEY WILL AVOID TAF SITES
AS THEY DISSIPATE. MAINLY CALM AIR TONIGHT LEADING TO LIFR FOG AT
KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z WEDNESDAY. CHANCE MVFR IN MIST ELSEWHERE. VFR
CONDITIONS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS. WINDS
BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THU: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS WITH PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT. ISOLD SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE.
FRI: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHC PM -SHRA.
SAT/SUN: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE PM SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...RJS/SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 290237
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1037 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR A THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE ON THURSDAY WHEN A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MOVED SOUTH FROM ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC EARLIER THIS EVENING DISSIPATED RAPIDLY AS THEY APPROACHED
OR ENTERED FORECAST AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. STILL
LOOKING AT A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG LATER ON.
EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S...EXCEPT SOME 50S IN THE NORMALLY
COOLER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW/RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT 850/925MB TEMPERATURES WARM FURTHER...THUS
SHOULD BE LOOKING AT AN EVEN WARMER DAY THAN TUESDAY. EXPECTING
PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ONCE AGAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS PASSING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE. ONCE AGAIN WITH
500-1200 J/KG OF MLCAPE...WILL SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF CU FIELD OVER
THE TERRAIN AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LESS CAPPING THAN TUESDAY...HOWEVER
WIND PROFILES SHOW MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF WIND SHEAR. THUS NO
SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED. WILL BE LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AREA-WIDE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE`LL BE LOOKING AT A VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES THURSDAY...BUT APPEARS MESSY. COULD BE
LOOKING AT AN INITIAL PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND POSSIBLE AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT PUSH THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THURSDAY...WHILE THE ACTUAL FRONT DOESN`T REACH THE REGION UNTIL
LATER THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER TROUGH LAGS FURTHER BEHIND...WITH
PASSAGE OF THAT NOT LIKELY UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS THERE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER...ALTHOUGH MOST FAVORED
ACROSS VERMONT AND ESPECIALLY POINTS EAST. CURRENT NAM/GFS MODEL
FORECASTS INDICATE 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE AND NEAR 40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM
SHEAR.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS TAKES ITS TIME FILTERING IN THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD END IN THE EVENING. LOWS 55-65F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...SEASONABLE TEMPS AND WEATHER THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR UPPER LOW TAKES UP
RESIDENCE OVER HUDSONS BAY LEAVING THE NORTHEAST IN PERSISTENT
BROAD TROUGH WITH THE AXIS MAINLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

WEAK PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY BE ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM JUST ABOUT ANY DAY IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP ANY RAINFALL GENERALLY BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE
VARIOUS SHORT WAVE FEATURES MAKE PINPOINTING ANY PARTICULAR DAY`S
WEATHER DIFFICULT.

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
ON SATURDAY, BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD
LOOK TO BE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW A
WEAK COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA AS A BETTER FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION.

850 TEMPS RUNNING 10-14C WITH A TREND TOWARD COOLER BY TUE AS THE
TROF SAGS SOUTH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S. SHOULD BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS EVENING APPEAR AS IF THEY WILL AVOID TAF SITES
AS THEY DISSIPATE. MAINLY CALM AIR TONIGHT LEADING TO LIFR FOG AT
KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z WEDNESDAY. CHANCE MVFR IN MIST ELSEWHERE. VFR
CONDITIONS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS. WINDS
BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THU: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS WITH PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT. ISOLD SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE.
FRI: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHC PM -SHRA.
SAT/SUN: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE PM SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...RJS/SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 290237
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1037 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR A THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE ON THURSDAY WHEN A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MOVED SOUTH FROM ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC EARLIER THIS EVENING DISSIPATED RAPIDLY AS THEY APPROACHED
OR ENTERED FORECAST AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. STILL
LOOKING AT A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG LATER ON.
EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S...EXCEPT SOME 50S IN THE NORMALLY
COOLER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW/RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT 850/925MB TEMPERATURES WARM FURTHER...THUS
SHOULD BE LOOKING AT AN EVEN WARMER DAY THAN TUESDAY. EXPECTING
PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ONCE AGAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS PASSING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE. ONCE AGAIN WITH
500-1200 J/KG OF MLCAPE...WILL SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF CU FIELD OVER
THE TERRAIN AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LESS CAPPING THAN TUESDAY...HOWEVER
WIND PROFILES SHOW MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF WIND SHEAR. THUS NO
SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED. WILL BE LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AREA-WIDE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE`LL BE LOOKING AT A VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES THURSDAY...BUT APPEARS MESSY. COULD BE
LOOKING AT AN INITIAL PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND POSSIBLE AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT PUSH THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THURSDAY...WHILE THE ACTUAL FRONT DOESN`T REACH THE REGION UNTIL
LATER THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER TROUGH LAGS FURTHER BEHIND...WITH
PASSAGE OF THAT NOT LIKELY UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS THERE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER...ALTHOUGH MOST FAVORED
ACROSS VERMONT AND ESPECIALLY POINTS EAST. CURRENT NAM/GFS MODEL
FORECASTS INDICATE 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE AND NEAR 40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM
SHEAR.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS TAKES ITS TIME FILTERING IN THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD END IN THE EVENING. LOWS 55-65F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...SEASONABLE TEMPS AND WEATHER THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR UPPER LOW TAKES UP
RESIDENCE OVER HUDSONS BAY LEAVING THE NORTHEAST IN PERSISTENT
BROAD TROUGH WITH THE AXIS MAINLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

WEAK PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY BE ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM JUST ABOUT ANY DAY IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP ANY RAINFALL GENERALLY BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE
VARIOUS SHORT WAVE FEATURES MAKE PINPOINTING ANY PARTICULAR DAY`S
WEATHER DIFFICULT.

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
ON SATURDAY, BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD
LOOK TO BE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW A
WEAK COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA AS A BETTER FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION.

850 TEMPS RUNNING 10-14C WITH A TREND TOWARD COOLER BY TUE AS THE
TROF SAGS SOUTH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S. SHOULD BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS EVENING APPEAR AS IF THEY WILL AVOID TAF SITES
AS THEY DISSIPATE. MAINLY CALM AIR TONIGHT LEADING TO LIFR FOG AT
KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z WEDNESDAY. CHANCE MVFR IN MIST ELSEWHERE. VFR
CONDITIONS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS. WINDS
BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THU: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS WITH PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT. ISOLD SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE.
FRI: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHC PM -SHRA.
SAT/SUN: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE PM SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...RJS/SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 290237
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1037 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR A THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE ON THURSDAY WHEN A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MOVED SOUTH FROM ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC EARLIER THIS EVENING DISSIPATED RAPIDLY AS THEY APPROACHED
OR ENTERED FORECAST AREA. NOT EXPECTING ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. STILL
LOOKING AT A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG LATER ON.
EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S...EXCEPT SOME 50S IN THE NORMALLY
COOLER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW/RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT 850/925MB TEMPERATURES WARM FURTHER...THUS
SHOULD BE LOOKING AT AN EVEN WARMER DAY THAN TUESDAY. EXPECTING
PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ONCE AGAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS PASSING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE. ONCE AGAIN WITH
500-1200 J/KG OF MLCAPE...WILL SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF CU FIELD OVER
THE TERRAIN AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LESS CAPPING THAN TUESDAY...HOWEVER
WIND PROFILES SHOW MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF WIND SHEAR. THUS NO
SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED. WILL BE LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AREA-WIDE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE`LL BE LOOKING AT A VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES THURSDAY...BUT APPEARS MESSY. COULD BE
LOOKING AT AN INITIAL PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND POSSIBLE AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT PUSH THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THURSDAY...WHILE THE ACTUAL FRONT DOESN`T REACH THE REGION UNTIL
LATER THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER TROUGH LAGS FURTHER BEHIND...WITH
PASSAGE OF THAT NOT LIKELY UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS THERE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER...ALTHOUGH MOST FAVORED
ACROSS VERMONT AND ESPECIALLY POINTS EAST. CURRENT NAM/GFS MODEL
FORECASTS INDICATE 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE AND NEAR 40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM
SHEAR.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS TAKES ITS TIME FILTERING IN THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD END IN THE EVENING. LOWS 55-65F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...SEASONABLE TEMPS AND WEATHER THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR UPPER LOW TAKES UP
RESIDENCE OVER HUDSONS BAY LEAVING THE NORTHEAST IN PERSISTENT
BROAD TROUGH WITH THE AXIS MAINLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

WEAK PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY BE ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM JUST ABOUT ANY DAY IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP ANY RAINFALL GENERALLY BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE
VARIOUS SHORT WAVE FEATURES MAKE PINPOINTING ANY PARTICULAR DAY`S
WEATHER DIFFICULT.

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
ON SATURDAY, BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD
LOOK TO BE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW A
WEAK COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA AS A BETTER FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION.

850 TEMPS RUNNING 10-14C WITH A TREND TOWARD COOLER BY TUE AS THE
TROF SAGS SOUTH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S. SHOULD BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS EVENING APPEAR AS IF THEY WILL AVOID TAF SITES
AS THEY DISSIPATE. MAINLY CALM AIR TONIGHT LEADING TO LIFR FOG AT
KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z WEDNESDAY. CHANCE MVFR IN MIST ELSEWHERE. VFR
CONDITIONS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS. WINDS
BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THU: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS WITH PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT. ISOLD SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE.
FRI: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHC PM -SHRA.
SAT/SUN: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE PM SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...RJS/SISSON



  [top]

000
FXUS61 KALY 290234
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1034 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE TOMORROW WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN VALLEY AREAS REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1034 PM EDT...THE KENX AND MOSAIC RADAR IS QUIET...AS ALL
THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED. THE SKIES
WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN OVER NY AND PA.

WARM AND STICKY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. SOME
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN. THE AREAL EXTENT
OF THE FOG MAY BE A LITTLE LESS THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PRIOR TO THE DECOUPLING.

MIN TEMPS WILL GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AND U50S TO
LOWER 60S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH
MANY AREAS LIKELY EXPERIENCING THE HOTTEST TEMPS OF THE YEAR THUS
FAR. THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS AS TO JUST HOW HOT MAX TEMPS WILL
GET...AS SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST EXTENSIVE PERIODS OF HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING ACROSS DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON HOURS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE A LITTLE ABOVE THE MAV/MET MOS...WITH
LOWER/MID 90S FOR MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND 85-90 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SLIGHTLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS MIXING DEPTH INCREASES...WITH DEWPOINTS TRENDING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 60S IN THE AFTERNOON. ASSUMING THIS OCCURS...MAX
HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S. HOWEVER...IF DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGHER IN VALLEY
AREAS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEAT INDICES ARE POSSIBLE. AS FOR THE
THREAT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...IT APPEARS THAT MID LEVEL
CAPPING SHOULD BE EVEN STRONGER THAN TODAY DUE TO WARMER MID
LEVELS AND HIGHER HEIGHTS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CLOSER.
HOWEVER...CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.

WED NT...VERY WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 IN MOST AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG
COULD DEVELOP LATE.

THU...A COLD FRONT...AND/OR POSSIBLE PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS SUGGEST THAT AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM NW
TO SE DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DOES NOT LOOK VERY STRONG AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS
SOME SUGGESTION IN THE GUIDANCE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES LATER IN THE DAY...AND THAT OUR REGION BECOMES PLACED
CLOSE TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FROM AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX
PASSING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE IN THE DAY. LATEST SREFS
SUGGEST THE GREATEST SB CAPES MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN MA/NW CT
AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE...WITH THE STRONGEST SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KT POTENTIALLY
DISPLACED WELL N AND W OF THE GREATEST INSTABILITY. SO...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...THE THREAT FOR
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS ONLY ISOLATED AT THIS TIME.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH AT LEAST THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HOWEVER...EVEN HOTTER TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP IN VALLEYS FROM
ALBANY S AND E SHOULD CONVECTION DEVELOP MORE SLOWLY.

THU NT-FRI...THE COLD FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY/WESTERN MA AND NW CT REGION IN THE
EVENING HOURS...WHERE CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER AT NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A
GRADUAL LOWERING OF HUMIDITY LEVELS...WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ON FRIDAY...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY
POSSIBLE UPSTREAM SMALLER SHORTWAVES THAT MAY NOT BE RESOLVED IN
THE GUIDANCE VERY WELL AND COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S EXPECTED...PERHAPS A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE MORE COMFORTABLE AS
WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED POLEWARD OVER NW QUEBEC AND
HUDSON BAY.  THE W/NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE FCST AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE ALY FCST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.  ONE OFF THE EAST COAST...AND ANOTHER
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND
SE CANADA.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT FROM THE TN
VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM
THE WEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  LOWS WILL BE IN U50S TO L60S OVER MOST
OF THE FCST AREA.  THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS HAVE A SHORT-WAVE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT INCREASE A SLIGHT CHS TO CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR/CAPITAL REGION NORTH
AND WEST.  THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR WITH THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING/LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE NORTH OF THE REGION.  HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE MID TO U80S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH
AND EAST...WITH M70S TO L80S NORTH AND WEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND
EAST OF UPSTATE NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ANY ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ENDING PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.  IN THE WEAK COLD
ADVECTION WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY H850 TEMPS LOWER BRIEFLY TO +10C
TO +14C FROM NW TO SE OVER THE FCST AREA.  LOWS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE
IN THE M50S TO L60S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH THE LOWER VALUES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SUNDAY
SHOULD BE A NICE DAY WITH SFC DEWPTS FALLING BACK IN THE 50S...AND
HIGHS PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  MAX TEMPS
WILL STILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY MID AND U80S
IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC
CYCLONE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH AN
INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST
OF THE TRI CITIES SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE W/SW FLOW AND
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT FOCUSING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY TIED TO
THE DIURNAL HEATING.  WE WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT OR LOW CHC POPS.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...OUR FCST LEANED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE
LATEST ECMWF FOR A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  THE GFS
IS FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH...AND WOULD HAVE A DRIER
TUESDAY.  QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE.  EXPECT HIGHS TUESDAY TO
BE IN THE M70S TO L80S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND
MID AND 80S SOUTH AND EAST WITH SOME COOLER READINGS OVER THE MTNS.

OVERALL...TEMPS STILL LOOK ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EXTENDED...BUT NOT
QUITE AS WARM AS THIS WEEK...AND PCPN BELOW NORMAL...EXCEPT WHERE
ANY CONVECTION OCCURS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW...AND THEN WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FOR
THURSDAY.

CLEARING SKIES AND CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR MIST/FOG
FORMATION ONCE AGAIN. BETTER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON AND A SLIGHTLY
DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER MAY KEEP ANY MIST ONLY AT MVFR LEVELS AT
KPOU/KALB. THE BEST CHC OF THE MVFR MIST WILL BE BTWN 08Z-13Z AT
THOSE TWO SITES. KGFL/KPSF HAVE A BETTER CHC OF IFR/LIFR
FOG/LOW STRATUS. KPSF MAY GO DOWN QUICKLY TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
SHORTLY BEFORE 06Z...WHILE KGFL COULD BE RIGHT AROUND 06Z. EXPECT
THE FOG OR STRATUS TO BURN OFF QUICKLY BTWN 12Z-14Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER WITH JUST A FEW CU...AND
FEW-SCT CIRRUS AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD INHIBIT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM DEVELOPING.

THE WINDS WILL GO CALM BTWN 00Z-02Z TONIGHT...AND WILL BE LIGHT
FROM THE SOUTH TO WEST AT 5 KTS OR SO LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN VALLEY AREAS REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION LIKELY...THEN FALL INTO THE
40-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR WED AFTERNOON. THE RH SHOULD THEN RECOVER
TO 90-100 PERCENT FOR WED NT.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
SOUTHWEST BY WED AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER STEM RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5
DAYS. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MAY CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 29TH... ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 290234
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1034 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE TOMORROW WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN VALLEY AREAS REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1034 PM EDT...THE KENX AND MOSAIC RADAR IS QUIET...AS ALL
THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED. THE SKIES
WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN OVER NY AND PA.

WARM AND STICKY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. SOME
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN. THE AREAL EXTENT
OF THE FOG MAY BE A LITTLE LESS THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PRIOR TO THE DECOUPLING.

MIN TEMPS WILL GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AND U50S TO
LOWER 60S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH
MANY AREAS LIKELY EXPERIENCING THE HOTTEST TEMPS OF THE YEAR THUS
FAR. THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS AS TO JUST HOW HOT MAX TEMPS WILL
GET...AS SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST EXTENSIVE PERIODS OF HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING ACROSS DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON HOURS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE A LITTLE ABOVE THE MAV/MET MOS...WITH
LOWER/MID 90S FOR MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND 85-90 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SLIGHTLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS MIXING DEPTH INCREASES...WITH DEWPOINTS TRENDING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 60S IN THE AFTERNOON. ASSUMING THIS OCCURS...MAX
HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S. HOWEVER...IF DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGHER IN VALLEY
AREAS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEAT INDICES ARE POSSIBLE. AS FOR THE
THREAT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...IT APPEARS THAT MID LEVEL
CAPPING SHOULD BE EVEN STRONGER THAN TODAY DUE TO WARMER MID
LEVELS AND HIGHER HEIGHTS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CLOSER.
HOWEVER...CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.

WED NT...VERY WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 IN MOST AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG
COULD DEVELOP LATE.

THU...A COLD FRONT...AND/OR POSSIBLE PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS SUGGEST THAT AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM NW
TO SE DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DOES NOT LOOK VERY STRONG AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS
SOME SUGGESTION IN THE GUIDANCE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES LATER IN THE DAY...AND THAT OUR REGION BECOMES PLACED
CLOSE TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FROM AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX
PASSING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE IN THE DAY. LATEST SREFS
SUGGEST THE GREATEST SB CAPES MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN MA/NW CT
AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE...WITH THE STRONGEST SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KT POTENTIALLY
DISPLACED WELL N AND W OF THE GREATEST INSTABILITY. SO...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...THE THREAT FOR
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS ONLY ISOLATED AT THIS TIME.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH AT LEAST THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HOWEVER...EVEN HOTTER TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP IN VALLEYS FROM
ALBANY S AND E SHOULD CONVECTION DEVELOP MORE SLOWLY.

THU NT-FRI...THE COLD FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY/WESTERN MA AND NW CT REGION IN THE
EVENING HOURS...WHERE CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER AT NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A
GRADUAL LOWERING OF HUMIDITY LEVELS...WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ON FRIDAY...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY
POSSIBLE UPSTREAM SMALLER SHORTWAVES THAT MAY NOT BE RESOLVED IN
THE GUIDANCE VERY WELL AND COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S EXPECTED...PERHAPS A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE MORE COMFORTABLE AS
WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED POLEWARD OVER NW QUEBEC AND
HUDSON BAY.  THE W/NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE FCST AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE ALY FCST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.  ONE OFF THE EAST COAST...AND ANOTHER
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND
SE CANADA.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT FROM THE TN
VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM
THE WEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  LOWS WILL BE IN U50S TO L60S OVER MOST
OF THE FCST AREA.  THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS HAVE A SHORT-WAVE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT INCREASE A SLIGHT CHS TO CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR/CAPITAL REGION NORTH
AND WEST.  THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR WITH THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING/LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE NORTH OF THE REGION.  HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE MID TO U80S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH
AND EAST...WITH M70S TO L80S NORTH AND WEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND
EAST OF UPSTATE NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ANY ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ENDING PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.  IN THE WEAK COLD
ADVECTION WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY H850 TEMPS LOWER BRIEFLY TO +10C
TO +14C FROM NW TO SE OVER THE FCST AREA.  LOWS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE
IN THE M50S TO L60S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH THE LOWER VALUES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SUNDAY
SHOULD BE A NICE DAY WITH SFC DEWPTS FALLING BACK IN THE 50S...AND
HIGHS PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  MAX TEMPS
WILL STILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY MID AND U80S
IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC
CYCLONE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH AN
INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST
OF THE TRI CITIES SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE W/SW FLOW AND
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT FOCUSING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY TIED TO
THE DIURNAL HEATING.  WE WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT OR LOW CHC POPS.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...OUR FCST LEANED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE
LATEST ECMWF FOR A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  THE GFS
IS FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH...AND WOULD HAVE A DRIER
TUESDAY.  QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE.  EXPECT HIGHS TUESDAY TO
BE IN THE M70S TO L80S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND
MID AND 80S SOUTH AND EAST WITH SOME COOLER READINGS OVER THE MTNS.

OVERALL...TEMPS STILL LOOK ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EXTENDED...BUT NOT
QUITE AS WARM AS THIS WEEK...AND PCPN BELOW NORMAL...EXCEPT WHERE
ANY CONVECTION OCCURS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW...AND THEN WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FOR
THURSDAY.

CLEARING SKIES AND CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR MIST/FOG
FORMATION ONCE AGAIN. BETTER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON AND A SLIGHTLY
DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER MAY KEEP ANY MIST ONLY AT MVFR LEVELS AT
KPOU/KALB. THE BEST CHC OF THE MVFR MIST WILL BE BTWN 08Z-13Z AT
THOSE TWO SITES. KGFL/KPSF HAVE A BETTER CHC OF IFR/LIFR
FOG/LOW STRATUS. KPSF MAY GO DOWN QUICKLY TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
SHORTLY BEFORE 06Z...WHILE KGFL COULD BE RIGHT AROUND 06Z. EXPECT
THE FOG OR STRATUS TO BURN OFF QUICKLY BTWN 12Z-14Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER WITH JUST A FEW CU...AND
FEW-SCT CIRRUS AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD INHIBIT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM DEVELOPING.

THE WINDS WILL GO CALM BTWN 00Z-02Z TONIGHT...AND WILL BE LIGHT
FROM THE SOUTH TO WEST AT 5 KTS OR SO LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN VALLEY AREAS REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION LIKELY...THEN FALL INTO THE
40-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR WED AFTERNOON. THE RH SHOULD THEN RECOVER
TO 90-100 PERCENT FOR WED NT.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
SOUTHWEST BY WED AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER STEM RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5
DAYS. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MAY CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 29TH... ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KBTV 290009
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
809 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR A THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE ON THURSDAY WHEN A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 758 PM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WITH LATEST UPDATE. HAVE BEEN WATCHING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC OVER PAST
FEW HOURS AS THEY MAKE THEIR WAY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. ONE STORM
AFFECTED PORTIONS OF ST LAWRENCE COUNTY NY BEFORE DISSIPATING
RATHER QUICKLY. ANOTHER STRONG/SEVERE STORM NORTH OF FRANKLIN
COUNTY VERMONT IS FINALLY WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE BORDER.
NOT MUCH ELSE HAPPENING FURTHER SOUTH AS ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
CAPPED. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT TO REFLECT LATEST
CONDITIONS/TRENDS. STILL LOOKING AT A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG LATER ON. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG
WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM REMAINS
POSSIBLE WITH 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE...AND WITH 40-45 KNOTS OF
SFC-6KM SHEAR...ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE. HOWEVER...CAP STILL REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
PART OF THE REGION...AND THE ONLY TRIGGER REMAINS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. STORM MOTION WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTHEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT BUT
STILL LARGELY IN CONTROL. AS IT PASSES SOUTH...SOME SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP IN THE LOW LEVELS. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY
CLEAR...ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS/CONVECTIVE REMNANTS MAY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF VERMONT/NY OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG LIKELY ONCE
AGAIN...BUT COVERAGE MAY BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN THIS MORNINGS WITH
SLIGHTLY MORE WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ONE DAY REMOVED FROM
RAINFALL. AFTER OUR FIRST 90F AT BURLINGTON TODAY...LOWS WILL BE
MILD AND SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 60S FOR MOST...EXCEPT SOME 50S IN THE COOLEST LOCATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW/RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT 850/925MB TEMPERATURES WARM FURTHER...THUS
SHOULD BE LOOKING AT AN EVEN WARMER DAY THAN TUESDAY. EXPECTING
PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ONCE AGAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS PASSING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE. ONCE AGAIN WITH
500-1200 J/KG OF MLCAPE...WILL SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF CU FIELD OVER
THE TERRAIN AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LESS CAPPING THAN TUESDAY...HOWEVER
WIND PROFILES SHOW MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF WIND SHEAR. THUS NO
SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED. WILL BE LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AREA-WIDE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE`LL BE LOOKING AT A VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES THURSDAY...BUT APPEARS MESSY. COULD BE
LOOKING AT AN INITIAL PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND POSSIBLE AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT PUSH THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THURSDAY...WHILE THE ACTUAL FRONT DOESN`T REACH THE REGION UNTIL
LATER THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER TROUGH LAGS FURTHER BEHIND...WITH
PASSAGE OF THAT NOT LIKELY UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS THERE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER...ALTHOUGH MOST FAVORED
ACROSS VERMONT AND ESPECIALLY POINTS EAST. CURRENT NAM/GFS MODEL
FORECASTS INDICATE 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE AND NEAR 40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM
SHEAR.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS TAKES ITS TIME FILTERING IN THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD END IN THE EVENING. LOWS 55-65F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...SEASONABLE TEMPS AND WEATHER THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR UPPER LOW TAKES UP
RESIDENCE OVER HUDSONS BAY LEAVING THE NORTHEAST IN PERSISTENT
BROAD TROUGH WITH THE AXIS MAINLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

WEAK PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY BE ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM JUST ABOUT ANY DAY IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP ANY RAINFALL GENERALLY BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE
VARIOUS SHORT WAVE FEATURES MAKE PINPOINTING ANY PARTICULAR DAY`S
WEATHER DIFFICULT.

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
ON SATURDAY, BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD
LOOK TO BE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW A
WEAK COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA AS A BETTER FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION.

850 TEMPS RUNNING 10-14C WITH A TREND TOWARD COOLER BY TUE AS THE
TROF SAGS SOUTH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S. SHOULD BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS EVENING APPEAR AS IF THEY WILL AVOID TAF SITES
AS THEY DISSIPATE. MAINLY CALM AIR TONIGHT LEADING TO LIFR FOG AT
KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z WEDNESDAY. CHANCE MVFR IN MIST ELSEWHERE. VFR
CONDITIONS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS. WINDS
BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THU: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS WITH PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT. ISOLD SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE.
FRI: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHC PM -SHRA.
SAT/SUN: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE PM SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...RJS/SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 290009
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
809 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR A THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE ON THURSDAY WHEN A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 758 PM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WITH LATEST UPDATE. HAVE BEEN WATCHING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC OVER PAST
FEW HOURS AS THEY MAKE THEIR WAY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. ONE STORM
AFFECTED PORTIONS OF ST LAWRENCE COUNTY NY BEFORE DISSIPATING
RATHER QUICKLY. ANOTHER STRONG/SEVERE STORM NORTH OF FRANKLIN
COUNTY VERMONT IS FINALLY WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE BORDER.
NOT MUCH ELSE HAPPENING FURTHER SOUTH AS ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
CAPPED. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT TO REFLECT LATEST
CONDITIONS/TRENDS. STILL LOOKING AT A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG LATER ON. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG
WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM REMAINS
POSSIBLE WITH 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE...AND WITH 40-45 KNOTS OF
SFC-6KM SHEAR...ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE. HOWEVER...CAP STILL REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
PART OF THE REGION...AND THE ONLY TRIGGER REMAINS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. STORM MOTION WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTHEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT BUT
STILL LARGELY IN CONTROL. AS IT PASSES SOUTH...SOME SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP IN THE LOW LEVELS. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY
CLEAR...ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS/CONVECTIVE REMNANTS MAY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF VERMONT/NY OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG LIKELY ONCE
AGAIN...BUT COVERAGE MAY BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN THIS MORNINGS WITH
SLIGHTLY MORE WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ONE DAY REMOVED FROM
RAINFALL. AFTER OUR FIRST 90F AT BURLINGTON TODAY...LOWS WILL BE
MILD AND SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 60S FOR MOST...EXCEPT SOME 50S IN THE COOLEST LOCATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW/RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT 850/925MB TEMPERATURES WARM FURTHER...THUS
SHOULD BE LOOKING AT AN EVEN WARMER DAY THAN TUESDAY. EXPECTING
PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ONCE AGAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS PASSING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE. ONCE AGAIN WITH
500-1200 J/KG OF MLCAPE...WILL SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF CU FIELD OVER
THE TERRAIN AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LESS CAPPING THAN TUESDAY...HOWEVER
WIND PROFILES SHOW MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF WIND SHEAR. THUS NO
SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED. WILL BE LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AREA-WIDE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE`LL BE LOOKING AT A VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES THURSDAY...BUT APPEARS MESSY. COULD BE
LOOKING AT AN INITIAL PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND POSSIBLE AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT PUSH THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THURSDAY...WHILE THE ACTUAL FRONT DOESN`T REACH THE REGION UNTIL
LATER THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER TROUGH LAGS FURTHER BEHIND...WITH
PASSAGE OF THAT NOT LIKELY UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS THERE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER...ALTHOUGH MOST FAVORED
ACROSS VERMONT AND ESPECIALLY POINTS EAST. CURRENT NAM/GFS MODEL
FORECASTS INDICATE 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE AND NEAR 40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM
SHEAR.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS TAKES ITS TIME FILTERING IN THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD END IN THE EVENING. LOWS 55-65F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...SEASONABLE TEMPS AND WEATHER THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR UPPER LOW TAKES UP
RESIDENCE OVER HUDSONS BAY LEAVING THE NORTHEAST IN PERSISTENT
BROAD TROUGH WITH THE AXIS MAINLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

WEAK PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY BE ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM JUST ABOUT ANY DAY IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP ANY RAINFALL GENERALLY BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE
VARIOUS SHORT WAVE FEATURES MAKE PINPOINTING ANY PARTICULAR DAY`S
WEATHER DIFFICULT.

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
ON SATURDAY, BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD
LOOK TO BE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW A
WEAK COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA AS A BETTER FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION.

850 TEMPS RUNNING 10-14C WITH A TREND TOWARD COOLER BY TUE AS THE
TROF SAGS SOUTH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S. SHOULD BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS EVENING APPEAR AS IF THEY WILL AVOID TAF SITES
AS THEY DISSIPATE. MAINLY CALM AIR TONIGHT LEADING TO LIFR FOG AT
KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z WEDNESDAY. CHANCE MVFR IN MIST ELSEWHERE. VFR
CONDITIONS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS. WINDS
BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THU: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS WITH PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT. ISOLD SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE.
FRI: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHC PM -SHRA.
SAT/SUN: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE PM SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...RJS/SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 290009
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
809 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR A THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE ON THURSDAY WHEN A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 758 PM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WITH LATEST UPDATE. HAVE BEEN WATCHING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC OVER PAST
FEW HOURS AS THEY MAKE THEIR WAY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. ONE STORM
AFFECTED PORTIONS OF ST LAWRENCE COUNTY NY BEFORE DISSIPATING
RATHER QUICKLY. ANOTHER STRONG/SEVERE STORM NORTH OF FRANKLIN
COUNTY VERMONT IS FINALLY WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE BORDER.
NOT MUCH ELSE HAPPENING FURTHER SOUTH AS ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
CAPPED. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT TO REFLECT LATEST
CONDITIONS/TRENDS. STILL LOOKING AT A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG LATER ON. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG
WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM REMAINS
POSSIBLE WITH 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE...AND WITH 40-45 KNOTS OF
SFC-6KM SHEAR...ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE. HOWEVER...CAP STILL REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
PART OF THE REGION...AND THE ONLY TRIGGER REMAINS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. STORM MOTION WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTHEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT BUT
STILL LARGELY IN CONTROL. AS IT PASSES SOUTH...SOME SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP IN THE LOW LEVELS. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY
CLEAR...ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS/CONVECTIVE REMNANTS MAY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF VERMONT/NY OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG LIKELY ONCE
AGAIN...BUT COVERAGE MAY BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN THIS MORNINGS WITH
SLIGHTLY MORE WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ONE DAY REMOVED FROM
RAINFALL. AFTER OUR FIRST 90F AT BURLINGTON TODAY...LOWS WILL BE
MILD AND SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 60S FOR MOST...EXCEPT SOME 50S IN THE COOLEST LOCATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW/RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT 850/925MB TEMPERATURES WARM FURTHER...THUS
SHOULD BE LOOKING AT AN EVEN WARMER DAY THAN TUESDAY. EXPECTING
PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ONCE AGAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS PASSING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE. ONCE AGAIN WITH
500-1200 J/KG OF MLCAPE...WILL SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF CU FIELD OVER
THE TERRAIN AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LESS CAPPING THAN TUESDAY...HOWEVER
WIND PROFILES SHOW MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF WIND SHEAR. THUS NO
SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED. WILL BE LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AREA-WIDE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE`LL BE LOOKING AT A VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES THURSDAY...BUT APPEARS MESSY. COULD BE
LOOKING AT AN INITIAL PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND POSSIBLE AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT PUSH THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THURSDAY...WHILE THE ACTUAL FRONT DOESN`T REACH THE REGION UNTIL
LATER THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER TROUGH LAGS FURTHER BEHIND...WITH
PASSAGE OF THAT NOT LIKELY UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS THERE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER...ALTHOUGH MOST FAVORED
ACROSS VERMONT AND ESPECIALLY POINTS EAST. CURRENT NAM/GFS MODEL
FORECASTS INDICATE 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE AND NEAR 40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM
SHEAR.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS TAKES ITS TIME FILTERING IN THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD END IN THE EVENING. LOWS 55-65F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...SEASONABLE TEMPS AND WEATHER THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR UPPER LOW TAKES UP
RESIDENCE OVER HUDSONS BAY LEAVING THE NORTHEAST IN PERSISTENT
BROAD TROUGH WITH THE AXIS MAINLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

WEAK PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY BE ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM JUST ABOUT ANY DAY IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP ANY RAINFALL GENERALLY BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE
VARIOUS SHORT WAVE FEATURES MAKE PINPOINTING ANY PARTICULAR DAY`S
WEATHER DIFFICULT.

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
ON SATURDAY, BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD
LOOK TO BE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW A
WEAK COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA AS A BETTER FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION.

850 TEMPS RUNNING 10-14C WITH A TREND TOWARD COOLER BY TUE AS THE
TROF SAGS SOUTH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S. SHOULD BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS EVENING APPEAR AS IF THEY WILL AVOID TAF SITES
AS THEY DISSIPATE. MAINLY CALM AIR TONIGHT LEADING TO LIFR FOG AT
KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z WEDNESDAY. CHANCE MVFR IN MIST ELSEWHERE. VFR
CONDITIONS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS. WINDS
BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THU: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS WITH PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT. ISOLD SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE.
FRI: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHC PM -SHRA.
SAT/SUN: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE PM SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...RJS/SISSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 290009
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
809 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR A THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE ON THURSDAY WHEN A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 758 PM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WITH LATEST UPDATE. HAVE BEEN WATCHING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC OVER PAST
FEW HOURS AS THEY MAKE THEIR WAY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. ONE STORM
AFFECTED PORTIONS OF ST LAWRENCE COUNTY NY BEFORE DISSIPATING
RATHER QUICKLY. ANOTHER STRONG/SEVERE STORM NORTH OF FRANKLIN
COUNTY VERMONT IS FINALLY WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE BORDER.
NOT MUCH ELSE HAPPENING FURTHER SOUTH AS ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
CAPPED. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT TO REFLECT LATEST
CONDITIONS/TRENDS. STILL LOOKING AT A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG LATER ON. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG
WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM REMAINS
POSSIBLE WITH 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE...AND WITH 40-45 KNOTS OF
SFC-6KM SHEAR...ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE. HOWEVER...CAP STILL REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
PART OF THE REGION...AND THE ONLY TRIGGER REMAINS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. STORM MOTION WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTHEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT BUT
STILL LARGELY IN CONTROL. AS IT PASSES SOUTH...SOME SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP IN THE LOW LEVELS. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY
CLEAR...ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS/CONVECTIVE REMNANTS MAY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF VERMONT/NY OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG LIKELY ONCE
AGAIN...BUT COVERAGE MAY BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN THIS MORNINGS WITH
SLIGHTLY MORE WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ONE DAY REMOVED FROM
RAINFALL. AFTER OUR FIRST 90F AT BURLINGTON TODAY...LOWS WILL BE
MILD AND SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 60S FOR MOST...EXCEPT SOME 50S IN THE COOLEST LOCATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW/RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT 850/925MB TEMPERATURES WARM FURTHER...THUS
SHOULD BE LOOKING AT AN EVEN WARMER DAY THAN TUESDAY. EXPECTING
PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ONCE AGAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS PASSING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE. ONCE AGAIN WITH
500-1200 J/KG OF MLCAPE...WILL SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF CU FIELD OVER
THE TERRAIN AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LESS CAPPING THAN TUESDAY...HOWEVER
WIND PROFILES SHOW MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF WIND SHEAR. THUS NO
SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED. WILL BE LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AREA-WIDE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE`LL BE LOOKING AT A VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES THURSDAY...BUT APPEARS MESSY. COULD BE
LOOKING AT AN INITIAL PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND POSSIBLE AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT PUSH THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THURSDAY...WHILE THE ACTUAL FRONT DOESN`T REACH THE REGION UNTIL
LATER THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER TROUGH LAGS FURTHER BEHIND...WITH
PASSAGE OF THAT NOT LIKELY UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS THERE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER...ALTHOUGH MOST FAVORED
ACROSS VERMONT AND ESPECIALLY POINTS EAST. CURRENT NAM/GFS MODEL
FORECASTS INDICATE 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE AND NEAR 40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM
SHEAR.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS TAKES ITS TIME FILTERING IN THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD END IN THE EVENING. LOWS 55-65F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...SEASONABLE TEMPS AND WEATHER THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR UPPER LOW TAKES UP
RESIDENCE OVER HUDSONS BAY LEAVING THE NORTHEAST IN PERSISTENT
BROAD TROUGH WITH THE AXIS MAINLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

WEAK PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY BE ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM JUST ABOUT ANY DAY IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP ANY RAINFALL GENERALLY BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE
VARIOUS SHORT WAVE FEATURES MAKE PINPOINTING ANY PARTICULAR DAY`S
WEATHER DIFFICULT.

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
ON SATURDAY, BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD
LOOK TO BE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW A
WEAK COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA AS A BETTER FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION.

850 TEMPS RUNNING 10-14C WITH A TREND TOWARD COOLER BY TUE AS THE
TROF SAGS SOUTH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S. SHOULD BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS EVENING APPEAR AS IF THEY WILL AVOID TAF SITES
AS THEY DISSIPATE. MAINLY CALM AIR TONIGHT LEADING TO LIFR FOG AT
KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z WEDNESDAY. CHANCE MVFR IN MIST ELSEWHERE. VFR
CONDITIONS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS. WINDS
BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THU: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS WITH PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT. ISOLD SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE.
FRI: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHC PM -SHRA.
SAT/SUN: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE PM SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...RJS/MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...RJS/SISSON



000
FXUS61 KALY 282352
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
752 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE TOMORROW WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN VALLEY AREAS REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 703 PM EDT...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...AND THE FOOTHILLS OF
THE SRN DACKS. A FEW HAVE ALSO REACHED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. WE HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST...AS NONE OF
THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TALL ENOUGH FOR LTG. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
HAVE RUN INTO THE MID LEVEL CAP INHIBITING FURTHER CONVECTIVE
GROWTH... AND HENCE HAVE QUICKLY FALLEN APART. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
BE COMPLETELY DISSIPATED BY 8-9 PM. HOURLY T/TD/RH/APPARENT TRENDS
HAVE BEEN RETOOLED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS THE NEXT FEW HRS.

EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP...ESP IN ANY AREAS WHICH RECEIVE EVENING ISOLD SHOWERS.
THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE FOG MAY BE A LITTLE LESS THAN THIS MORNING
DUE TO A SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PRIOR TO DECOUPLING.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH MAY ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 CLOSER
TO THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION. SOME UPPER 50S COULD OCCUR IN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH
MANY AREAS LIKELY EXPERIENCING THE HOTTEST TEMPS OF THE YEAR THUS
FAR. THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS AS TO JUST HOW HOT MAX TEMPS WILL
GET...AS SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST EXTENSIVE PERIODS OF HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING ACROSS DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON HOURS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE A LITTLE ABOVE THE MAV/MET MOS...WITH
LOWER/MID 90S FOR MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND 85-90 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SLIGHTLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS MIXING DEPTH INCREASES...WITH DEWPOINTS TRENDING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 60S IN THE AFTERNOON. ASSUMING THIS OCCURS...MAX
HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S. HOWEVER...IF DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGHER IN VALLEY
AREAS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEAT INDICES ARE POSSIBLE. AS FOR THE
THREAT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...IT APPEARS THAT MID LEVEL
CAPPING SHOULD BE EVEN STRONGER THAN TODAY DUE TO WARMER MID
LEVELS AND HIGHER HEIGHTS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CLOSER.
HOWEVER...CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.

WED NT...VERY WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 IN MOST AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG
COULD DEVELOP LATE.

THU...A COLD FRONT...AND/OR POSSIBLE PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS SUGGEST THAT AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM NW
TO SE DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DOES NOT LOOK VERY STRONG AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS
SOME SUGGESTION IN THE GUIDANCE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES LATER IN THE DAY...AND THAT OUR REGION BECOMES PLACED
CLOSE TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FROM AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX
PASSING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE IN THE DAY. LATEST SREFS
SUGGEST THE GREATEST SB CAPES MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN MA/NW CT
AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE...WITH THE STRONGEST SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KT POTENTIALLY
DISPLACED WELL N AND W OF THE GREATEST INSTABILITY. SO...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...THE THREAT FOR
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS ONLY ISOLATED AT THIS TIME.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH AT LEAST THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HOWEVER...EVEN HOTTER TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP IN VALLEYS FROM
ALBANY S AND E SHOULD CONVECTION DEVELOP MORE SLOWLY.

THU NT-FRI...THE COLD FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY/WESTERN MA AND NW CT REGION IN THE
EVENING HOURS...WHERE CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER AT NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A
GRADUAL LOWERING OF HUMIDITY LEVELS...WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ON FRIDAY...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY
POSSIBLE UPSTREAM SMALLER SHORTWAVES THAT MAY NOT BE RESOLVED IN
THE GUIDANCE VERY WELL AND COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S EXPECTED...PERHAPS A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE MORE COMFORTABLE AS
WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED POLEWARD OVER NW QUEBEC AND
HUDSON BAY.  THE W/NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE FCST AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE ALY FCST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.  ONE OFF THE EAST COAST...AND ANOTHER
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND
SE CANADA.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT FROM THE TN
VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM
THE WEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  LOWS WILL BE IN U50S TO L60S OVER MOST
OF THE FCST AREA.  THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS HAVE A SHORT-WAVE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT INCREASE A SLIGHT CHS TO CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR/CAPITAL REGION NORTH
AND WEST.  THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR WITH THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING/LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE NORTH OF THE REGION.  HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE MID TO U80S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH
AND EAST...WITH M70S TO L80S NORTH AND WEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND
EAST OF UPSTATE NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ANY ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ENDING PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.  IN THE WEAK COLD
ADVECTION WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY H850 TEMPS LOWER BRIEFLY TO +10C
TO +14C FROM NW TO SE OVER THE FCST AREA.  LOWS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE
IN THE M50S TO L60S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH THE LOWER VALUES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SUNDAY
SHOULD BE A NICE DAY WITH SFC DEWPTS FALLING BACK IN THE 50S...AND
HIGHS PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  MAX TEMPS
WILL STILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY MID AND U80S
IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC
CYCLONE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH AN
INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST
OF THE TRI CITIES SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE W/SW FLOW AND
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT FOCUSING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY TIED TO
THE DIURNAL HEATING.  WE WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT OR LOW CHC POPS.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...OUR FCST LEANED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE
LATEST ECMWF FOR A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  THE GFS
IS FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH...AND WOULD HAVE A DRIER
TUESDAY.  QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE.  EXPECT HIGHS TUESDAY TO
BE IN THE M70S TO L80S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND
MID AND 80S SOUTH AND EAST WITH SOME COOLER READINGS OVER THE MTNS.

OVERALL...TEMPS STILL LOOK ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EXTENDED...BUT NOT
QUITE AS WARM AS THIS WEEK...AND PCPN BELOW NORMAL...EXCEPT WHERE
ANY CONVECTION OCCURS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW...AND THEN WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FOR
THURSDAY.

CLEARING SKIES AND CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR MIST/FOG
FORMATION ONCE AGAIN. BETTER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON AND A SLIGHTLY
DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER MAY KEEP ANY MIST ONLY AT MVFR LEVELS AT
KPOU/KALB. THE BEST CHC OF THE MVFR MIST WILL BE BTWN 08Z-13Z AT
THOSE TWO SITES. KGFL/KPSF HAVE A BETTER CHC OF IFR/LIFR
FOG/LOW STRATUS. KPSF MAY GO DOWN QUICKLY TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
SHORTLY BEFORE 06Z...WHILE KGFL COULD BE RIGHT AROUND 06Z. EXPECT
THE FOG OR STRATUS TO BURN OFF QUICKLY BTWN 12Z-14Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER WITH JUST A FEW CU...AND
FEW-SCT CIRRUS AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD INHIBIT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM DEVELOPING.

THE WINDS WILL GO CALM BTWN 00Z-02Z TONIGHT...AND WILL BE LIGHT
FROM THE SOUTH TO WEST AT 5 KTS OR SO LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN VALLEY AREAS REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION LIKELY...THEN FALL INTO THE
40-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR WED AFTERNOON. THE RH SHOULD THEN RECOVER
TO 90-100 PERCENT FOR WED NT.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
SOUTHWEST BY WED AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER STEM RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5
DAYS. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MAY CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 29TH... ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL/WASULA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 282352
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
752 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE TOMORROW WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN VALLEY AREAS REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 703 PM EDT...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...AND THE FOOTHILLS OF
THE SRN DACKS. A FEW HAVE ALSO REACHED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. WE HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST...AS NONE OF
THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TALL ENOUGH FOR LTG. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
HAVE RUN INTO THE MID LEVEL CAP INHIBITING FURTHER CONVECTIVE
GROWTH... AND HENCE HAVE QUICKLY FALLEN APART. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
BE COMPLETELY DISSIPATED BY 8-9 PM. HOURLY T/TD/RH/APPARENT TRENDS
HAVE BEEN RETOOLED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS THE NEXT FEW HRS.

EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP...ESP IN ANY AREAS WHICH RECEIVE EVENING ISOLD SHOWERS.
THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE FOG MAY BE A LITTLE LESS THAN THIS MORNING
DUE TO A SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PRIOR TO DECOUPLING.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH MAY ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 CLOSER
TO THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION. SOME UPPER 50S COULD OCCUR IN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH
MANY AREAS LIKELY EXPERIENCING THE HOTTEST TEMPS OF THE YEAR THUS
FAR. THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS AS TO JUST HOW HOT MAX TEMPS WILL
GET...AS SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST EXTENSIVE PERIODS OF HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING ACROSS DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON HOURS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE A LITTLE ABOVE THE MAV/MET MOS...WITH
LOWER/MID 90S FOR MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND 85-90 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SLIGHTLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS MIXING DEPTH INCREASES...WITH DEWPOINTS TRENDING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 60S IN THE AFTERNOON. ASSUMING THIS OCCURS...MAX
HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S. HOWEVER...IF DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGHER IN VALLEY
AREAS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEAT INDICES ARE POSSIBLE. AS FOR THE
THREAT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...IT APPEARS THAT MID LEVEL
CAPPING SHOULD BE EVEN STRONGER THAN TODAY DUE TO WARMER MID
LEVELS AND HIGHER HEIGHTS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CLOSER.
HOWEVER...CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.

WED NT...VERY WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 IN MOST AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG
COULD DEVELOP LATE.

THU...A COLD FRONT...AND/OR POSSIBLE PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS SUGGEST THAT AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM NW
TO SE DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DOES NOT LOOK VERY STRONG AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS
SOME SUGGESTION IN THE GUIDANCE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES LATER IN THE DAY...AND THAT OUR REGION BECOMES PLACED
CLOSE TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FROM AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX
PASSING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE IN THE DAY. LATEST SREFS
SUGGEST THE GREATEST SB CAPES MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN MA/NW CT
AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE...WITH THE STRONGEST SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KT POTENTIALLY
DISPLACED WELL N AND W OF THE GREATEST INSTABILITY. SO...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...THE THREAT FOR
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS ONLY ISOLATED AT THIS TIME.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH AT LEAST THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HOWEVER...EVEN HOTTER TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP IN VALLEYS FROM
ALBANY S AND E SHOULD CONVECTION DEVELOP MORE SLOWLY.

THU NT-FRI...THE COLD FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY/WESTERN MA AND NW CT REGION IN THE
EVENING HOURS...WHERE CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER AT NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A
GRADUAL LOWERING OF HUMIDITY LEVELS...WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ON FRIDAY...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY
POSSIBLE UPSTREAM SMALLER SHORTWAVES THAT MAY NOT BE RESOLVED IN
THE GUIDANCE VERY WELL AND COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S EXPECTED...PERHAPS A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE MORE COMFORTABLE AS
WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED POLEWARD OVER NW QUEBEC AND
HUDSON BAY.  THE W/NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE FCST AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE ALY FCST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.  ONE OFF THE EAST COAST...AND ANOTHER
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND
SE CANADA.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT FROM THE TN
VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM
THE WEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  LOWS WILL BE IN U50S TO L60S OVER MOST
OF THE FCST AREA.  THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS HAVE A SHORT-WAVE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT INCREASE A SLIGHT CHS TO CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR/CAPITAL REGION NORTH
AND WEST.  THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR WITH THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING/LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE NORTH OF THE REGION.  HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE MID TO U80S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH
AND EAST...WITH M70S TO L80S NORTH AND WEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND
EAST OF UPSTATE NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ANY ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ENDING PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.  IN THE WEAK COLD
ADVECTION WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY H850 TEMPS LOWER BRIEFLY TO +10C
TO +14C FROM NW TO SE OVER THE FCST AREA.  LOWS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE
IN THE M50S TO L60S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH THE LOWER VALUES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SUNDAY
SHOULD BE A NICE DAY WITH SFC DEWPTS FALLING BACK IN THE 50S...AND
HIGHS PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  MAX TEMPS
WILL STILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY MID AND U80S
IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC
CYCLONE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH AN
INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST
OF THE TRI CITIES SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE W/SW FLOW AND
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT FOCUSING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY TIED TO
THE DIURNAL HEATING.  WE WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT OR LOW CHC POPS.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...OUR FCST LEANED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE
LATEST ECMWF FOR A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  THE GFS
IS FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH...AND WOULD HAVE A DRIER
TUESDAY.  QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE.  EXPECT HIGHS TUESDAY TO
BE IN THE M70S TO L80S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND
MID AND 80S SOUTH AND EAST WITH SOME COOLER READINGS OVER THE MTNS.

OVERALL...TEMPS STILL LOOK ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EXTENDED...BUT NOT
QUITE AS WARM AS THIS WEEK...AND PCPN BELOW NORMAL...EXCEPT WHERE
ANY CONVECTION OCCURS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW...AND THEN WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FOR
THURSDAY.

CLEARING SKIES AND CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR MIST/FOG
FORMATION ONCE AGAIN. BETTER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON AND A SLIGHTLY
DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER MAY KEEP ANY MIST ONLY AT MVFR LEVELS AT
KPOU/KALB. THE BEST CHC OF THE MVFR MIST WILL BE BTWN 08Z-13Z AT
THOSE TWO SITES. KGFL/KPSF HAVE A BETTER CHC OF IFR/LIFR
FOG/LOW STRATUS. KPSF MAY GO DOWN QUICKLY TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
SHORTLY BEFORE 06Z...WHILE KGFL COULD BE RIGHT AROUND 06Z. EXPECT
THE FOG OR STRATUS TO BURN OFF QUICKLY BTWN 12Z-14Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER WITH JUST A FEW CU...AND
FEW-SCT CIRRUS AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD INHIBIT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM DEVELOPING.

THE WINDS WILL GO CALM BTWN 00Z-02Z TONIGHT...AND WILL BE LIGHT
FROM THE SOUTH TO WEST AT 5 KTS OR SO LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN VALLEY AREAS REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION LIKELY...THEN FALL INTO THE
40-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR WED AFTERNOON. THE RH SHOULD THEN RECOVER
TO 90-100 PERCENT FOR WED NT.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
SOUTHWEST BY WED AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER STEM RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5
DAYS. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MAY CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 29TH... ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL/WASULA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 282303
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
703 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE TOMORROW WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN VALLEY AREAS REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 703 PM EDT...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...AND THE FOOTHILLS OF
THE SRN DACKS. A FEW HAVE ALSO REACHED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. WE HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST...AS NONE OF
THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TALL ENOUGH FOR LTG. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
HAVE RUN INTO THE MID LEVEL CAP INHIBITING FURTHER CONVECTIVE
GROWTH... AND HENCE HAVE QUICKLY FALLEN APART. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
BE COMPLETELY DISSIPATED BY 8-9 PM. HOURLY T/TD/RH/APPARENT TRENDS
HAVE BEEN RETOOLED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS THE NEXT FEW HRS.

EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP...ESP IN ANY AREAS WHICH RECEIVE EVENING ISOLD SHOWERS.
THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE FOG MAY BE A LITTLE LESS THAN THIS MORNING
DUE TO A SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PRIOR TO DECOUPLING.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH MAY ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 CLOSER
TO THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION. SOME UPPER 50S COULD OCCUR IN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH
MANY AREAS LIKELY EXPERIENCING THE HOTTEST TEMPS OF THE YEAR THUS
FAR. THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS AS TO JUST HOW HOT MAX TEMPS WILL
GET...AS SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST EXTENSIVE PERIODS OF HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING ACROSS DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON HOURS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE A LITTLE ABOVE THE MAV/MET MOS...WITH
LOWER/MID 90S FOR MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND 85-90 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SLIGHTLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS MIXING DEPTH INCREASES...WITH DEWPOINTS TRENDING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 60S IN THE AFTERNOON. ASSUMING THIS OCCURS...MAX
HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S. HOWEVER...IF DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGHER IN VALLEY
AREAS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEAT INDICES ARE POSSIBLE. AS FOR THE
THREAT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...IT APPEARS THAT MID LEVEL
CAPPING SHOULD BE EVEN STRONGER THAN TODAY DUE TO WARMER MID
LEVELS AND HIGHER HEIGHTS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CLOSER.
HOWEVER...CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.

WED NT...VERY WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 IN MOST AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG
COULD DEVELOP LATE.

THU...A COLD FRONT...AND/OR POSSIBLE PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS SUGGEST THAT AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM NW
TO SE DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DOES NOT LOOK VERY STRONG AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS
SOME SUGGESTION IN THE GUIDANCE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES LATER IN THE DAY...AND THAT OUR REGION BECOMES PLACED
CLOSE TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FROM AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX
PASSING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE IN THE DAY. LATEST SREFS
SUGGEST THE GREATEST SB CAPES MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN MA/NW CT
AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE...WITH THE STRONGEST SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KT POTENTIALLY
DISPLACED WELL N AND W OF THE GREATEST INSTABILITY. SO...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...THE THREAT FOR
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS ONLY ISOLATED AT THIS TIME.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH AT LEAST THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HOWEVER...EVEN HOTTER TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP IN VALLEYS FROM
ALBANY S AND E SHOULD CONVECTION DEVELOP MORE SLOWLY.

THU NT-FRI...THE COLD FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY/WESTERN MA AND NW CT REGION IN THE
EVENING HOURS...WHERE CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER AT NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A
GRADUAL LOWERING OF HUMIDITY LEVELS...WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ON FRIDAY...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY
POSSIBLE UPSTREAM SMALLER SHORTWAVES THAT MAY NOT BE RESOLVED IN
THE GUIDANCE VERY WELL AND COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S EXPECTED...PERHAPS A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE MORE COMFORTABLE AS
WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED POLEWARD OVER NW QUEBEC AND
HUDSON BAY.  THE W/NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE FCST AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE ALY FCST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.  ONE OFF THE EAST COAST...AND ANOTHER
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND
SE CANADA.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT FROM THE TN
VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM
THE WEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  LOWS WILL BE IN U50S TO L60S OVER MOST
OF THE FCST AREA.  THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS HAVE A SHORT-WAVE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT INCREASE A SLIGHT CHS TO CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR/CAPITAL REGION NORTH
AND WEST.  THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR WITH THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING/LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE NORTH OF THE REGION.  HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE MID TO U80S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH
AND EAST...WITH M70S TO L80S NORTH AND WEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND
EAST OF UPSTATE NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ANY ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ENDING PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.  IN THE WEAK COLD
ADVECTION WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY H850 TEMPS LOWER BRIEFLY TO +10C
TO +14C FROM NW TO SE OVER THE FCST AREA.  LOWS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE
IN THE M50S TO L60S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH THE LOWER VALUES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SUNDAY
SHOULD BE A NICE DAY WITH SFC DEWPTS FALLING BACK IN THE 50S...AND
HIGHS PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  MAX TEMPS
WILL STILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY MID AND U80S
IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC
CYCLONE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH AN
INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST
OF THE TRI CITIES SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE W/SW FLOW AND
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT FOCUSING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY TIED TO
THE DIURNAL HEATING.  WE WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT OR LOW CHC POPS.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...OUR FCST LEANED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE
LATEST ECMWF FOR A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  THE GFS
IS FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH...AND WOULD HAVE A DRIER
TUESDAY.  QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE.  EXPECT HIGHS TUESDAY TO
BE IN THE M70S TO L80S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND
MID AND 80S SOUTH AND EAST WITH SOME COOLER READINGS OVER THE MTNS.

OVERALL...TEMPS STILL LOOK ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EXTENDED...BUT NOT
QUITE AS WARM AS THIS WEEK...AND PCPN BELOW NORMAL...EXCEPT WHERE
ANY CONVECTION OCCURS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER. JUST A FEW CLOUDS INTO
THIS EVENING...THEN SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POTENTIALLY DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT...SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS. HAVE
ACKNOWLEDGED BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FEET THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...WHEN THE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TYPICALLY LIFT AND BURN OFF. NOT PUTTING SOLID IFR
ANYWHERE UNTIL TRENDS BECOME APPARENT LATER THIS EVENING...SINCE
NO TWO NIGHTS ARE EVER EXACTLY THE SAME AS SMALL SCALE ATMOSPHERIC
FEATURES THAT SUPPORT IFR CONDITIONS MOVE AND EVOLVE DAY TO DAY.
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 14Z.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE AT 6 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 18Z WEDNESDAY...BUT LOCAL EFFECTS WILL RESULT IN
DIFFERENT WIND DIRECTIONS AT EACH TAF AT TIMES.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN VALLEY AREAS REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION LIKELY...THEN FALL INTO THE
40-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR WED AFTERNOON. THE RH SHOULD THEN RECOVER
TO 90-100 PERCENT FOR WED NT.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
SOUTHWEST BY WED AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER STEM RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5
DAYS. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MAY CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 29TH... ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL/WASULA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 282059
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
459 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN VALLEY AREAS REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 5 PM EDT...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SARATOGA REGION AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
WERE GRAZING NORTHEAST WINDHAM CO VT. ADDITIONAL TOWERING CU WERE
NOTED ON RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE SE
ADIRONDACKS...AND CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPING FROM THESE. SO...THROUGH SUNSET...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC
POPS FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTH...AND
INTO SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA. STRONG MID LEVEL CAPPING MAY LIMIT
HOW TALL THESE CLOUDS BUILD...AND MAY KEEP MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY
JUST SHOWERS AND WITHOUT LIGHTNING...BUT WILL KEEP SOME MENTION OF
THUNDER JUST IN CASE.

AFTER ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION WANES LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP...ESP IN
ANY AREAS WHICH RECEIVE EVENING SHOWERS. THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE FOG
MAY BE A LITTLE LESS THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO A SLIGHTLY BETTER
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PRIOR TO DECOUPLING.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH MAY ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 CLOSER
TO THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION. SOME UPPER 50S COULD OCCUR IN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH
MANY AREAS LIKELY EXPERIENCING THE HOTTEST TEMPS OF THE YEAR THUS
FAR. THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS AS TO JUST HOW HOT MAX TEMPS WILL
GET...AS SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST EXTENSIVE PERIODS OF HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING ACROSS DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON HOURS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE A LITTLE ABOVE THE MAV/MET MOS...WITH
LOWER/MID 90S FOR MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND 85-90 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SLIGHTLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS MIXING DEPTH INCREASES...WITH DEWPOINTS TRENDING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 60S IN THE AFTERNOON. ASSUMING THIS OCCURS...MAX
HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S. HOWEVER...IF DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGHER IN VALLEY
AREAS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEAT INDICES ARE POSSIBLE. AS FOR THE
THREAT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...IT APPEARS THAT MID LEVEL
CAPPING SHOULD BE EVEN STRONGER THAN TODAY DUE TO WARMER MID
LEVELS AND HIGHER HEIGHTS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CLOSER.
HOWEVER...CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.

WED NT...VERY WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 IN MOST AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG
COULD DEVELOP LATE.

THU...A COLD FRONT...AND/OR POSSIBLE PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS SUGGEST THAT AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM NW
TO SE DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DOES NOT LOOK VERY STRONG AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS
SOME SUGGESTION IN THE GUIDANCE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES LATER IN THE DAY...AND THAT OUR REGION BECOMES PLACED
CLOSE TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FROM AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX
PASSING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE IN THE DAY. LATEST SREFS
SUGGEST THE GREATEST SB CAPES MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN MA/NW CT
AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE...WITH THE STRONGEST SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KT POTENTIALLY
DISPLACED WELL N AND W OF THE GREATEST INSTABILITY. SO...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...THE THREAT FOR
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS ONLY ISOLATED AT THIS TIME.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH AT LEAST THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HOWEVER...EVEN HOTTER TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP IN VALLEYS FROM
ALBANY S AND E SHOULD CONVECTION DEVELOP MORE SLOWLY.

THU NT-FRI...THE COLD FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY/WESTERN MA AND NW CT REGION IN THE
EVENING HOURS...WHERE CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER AT NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A
GRADUAL LOWERING OF HUMIDITY LEVELS...WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ON FRIDAY...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY
POSSIBLE UPSTREAM SMALLER SHORTWAVES THAT MAY NOT BE RESOLVED IN
THE GUIDANCE VERY WELL AND COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S EXPECTED...PERHAPS A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE MORE COMFORTABLE AS
WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED POLEWARD OVER NW QUEBEC AND
HUDSON BAY.  THE W/NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE FCST AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE ALY FCST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.  ONE OFF THE EAST COAST...AND ANOTHER
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND
SE CANADA.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT FROM THE TN
VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM
THE WEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  LOWS WILL BE IN U50S TO L60S OVER MOST
OF THE FCST AREA.  THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS HAVE A SHORT-WAVE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT INCREASE A SLIGHT CHS TO CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR/CAPITAL REGION NORTH
AND WEST.  THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR WITH THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING/LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE NORTH OF THE REGION.  HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE MID TO U80S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH
AND EAST...WITH M70S TO L80S NORTH AND WEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND
EAST OF UPSTATE NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ANY ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ENDING PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.  IN THE WEAK COLD
ADVECTION WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY H850 TEMPS LOWER BRIEFLY TO +10C
TO +14C FROM NW TO SE OVER THE FCST AREA.  LOWS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE
IN THE M50S TO L60S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH THE LOWER VALUES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SUNDAY
SHOULD BE A NICE DAY WITH SFC DEWPTS FALLING BACK IN THE 50S...AND
HIGHS PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  MAX TEMPS
WILL STILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY MID AND U80S
IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC
CYCLONE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH AN
INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST
OF THE TRI CITIES SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE W/SW FLOW AND
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT FOCUSING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY TIED TO
THE DIURNAL HEATING.  WE WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT OR LOW CHC POPS.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...OUR FCST LEANED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE
LATEST ECMWF FOR A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  THE GFS
IS FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH...AND WOULD HAVE A DRIER
TUESDAY.  QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE.  EXPECT HIGHS TUESDAY TO
BE IN THE M70S TO L80S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND
MID AND 80S SOUTH AND EAST WITH SOME COOLER READINGS OVER THE MTNS.

OVERALL...TEMPS STILL LOOK ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EXTENDED...BUT NOT
QUITE AS WARM AS THIS WEEK...AND PCPN BELOW NORMAL...EXCEPT WHERE
ANY CONVECTION OCCURS.


&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER. JUST A FEW CLOUDS INTO
THIS EVENING...THEN SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POTENTIALLY DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT...SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS. HAVE
ACKNOWLEDGED BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FEET THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...WHEN THE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TYPICALLY LIFT AND BURN OFF. NOT PUTTING SOLID IFR
ANYWHERE UNTIL TRENDS BECOME APPARENT LATER THIS EVENING...SINCE
NO TWO NIGHTS ARE EVER EXACTLY THE SAME AS SMALL SCALE ATMOSPHERIC
FEATURES THAT SUPPORT IFR CONDITIONS MOVE AND EVOLVE DAY TO DAY.
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 14Z.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE AT 6 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 18Z WEDNESDAY...BUT LOCAL EFFECTS WILL RESULT IN
DIFFERENT WIND DIRECTIONS AT EACH TAF AT TIMES.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN VALLEY AREAS REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION LIKELY...THEN FALL INTO THE
40-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR WED AFTERNOON. THE RH SHOULD THEN RECOVER
TO 90-100 PERCENT FOR WED NT.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
SOUTHWEST BY WED AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER STEM RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5
DAYS. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MAY CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 29TH... ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 282059
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
459 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN VALLEY AREAS REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 5 PM EDT...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SARATOGA REGION AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
WERE GRAZING NORTHEAST WINDHAM CO VT. ADDITIONAL TOWERING CU WERE
NOTED ON RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE SE
ADIRONDACKS...AND CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPING FROM THESE. SO...THROUGH SUNSET...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC
POPS FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTH...AND
INTO SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA. STRONG MID LEVEL CAPPING MAY LIMIT
HOW TALL THESE CLOUDS BUILD...AND MAY KEEP MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY
JUST SHOWERS AND WITHOUT LIGHTNING...BUT WILL KEEP SOME MENTION OF
THUNDER JUST IN CASE.

AFTER ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION WANES LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP...ESP IN
ANY AREAS WHICH RECEIVE EVENING SHOWERS. THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE FOG
MAY BE A LITTLE LESS THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO A SLIGHTLY BETTER
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PRIOR TO DECOUPLING.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH MAY ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 CLOSER
TO THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION. SOME UPPER 50S COULD OCCUR IN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH
MANY AREAS LIKELY EXPERIENCING THE HOTTEST TEMPS OF THE YEAR THUS
FAR. THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS AS TO JUST HOW HOT MAX TEMPS WILL
GET...AS SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST EXTENSIVE PERIODS OF HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING ACROSS DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON HOURS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE A LITTLE ABOVE THE MAV/MET MOS...WITH
LOWER/MID 90S FOR MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND 85-90 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SLIGHTLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS MIXING DEPTH INCREASES...WITH DEWPOINTS TRENDING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 60S IN THE AFTERNOON. ASSUMING THIS OCCURS...MAX
HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S. HOWEVER...IF DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGHER IN VALLEY
AREAS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEAT INDICES ARE POSSIBLE. AS FOR THE
THREAT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...IT APPEARS THAT MID LEVEL
CAPPING SHOULD BE EVEN STRONGER THAN TODAY DUE TO WARMER MID
LEVELS AND HIGHER HEIGHTS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CLOSER.
HOWEVER...CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.

WED NT...VERY WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 IN MOST AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG
COULD DEVELOP LATE.

THU...A COLD FRONT...AND/OR POSSIBLE PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS SUGGEST THAT AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM NW
TO SE DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DOES NOT LOOK VERY STRONG AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS
SOME SUGGESTION IN THE GUIDANCE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES LATER IN THE DAY...AND THAT OUR REGION BECOMES PLACED
CLOSE TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FROM AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX
PASSING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE IN THE DAY. LATEST SREFS
SUGGEST THE GREATEST SB CAPES MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN MA/NW CT
AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE...WITH THE STRONGEST SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KT POTENTIALLY
DISPLACED WELL N AND W OF THE GREATEST INSTABILITY. SO...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...THE THREAT FOR
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS ONLY ISOLATED AT THIS TIME.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH AT LEAST THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HOWEVER...EVEN HOTTER TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP IN VALLEYS FROM
ALBANY S AND E SHOULD CONVECTION DEVELOP MORE SLOWLY.

THU NT-FRI...THE COLD FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY/WESTERN MA AND NW CT REGION IN THE
EVENING HOURS...WHERE CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER AT NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A
GRADUAL LOWERING OF HUMIDITY LEVELS...WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ON FRIDAY...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY
POSSIBLE UPSTREAM SMALLER SHORTWAVES THAT MAY NOT BE RESOLVED IN
THE GUIDANCE VERY WELL AND COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S EXPECTED...PERHAPS A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE MORE COMFORTABLE AS
WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED POLEWARD OVER NW QUEBEC AND
HUDSON BAY.  THE W/NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE FCST AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE ALY FCST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.  ONE OFF THE EAST COAST...AND ANOTHER
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND
SE CANADA.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT FROM THE TN
VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM
THE WEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  LOWS WILL BE IN U50S TO L60S OVER MOST
OF THE FCST AREA.  THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS HAVE A SHORT-WAVE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT INCREASE A SLIGHT CHS TO CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR/CAPITAL REGION NORTH
AND WEST.  THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR WITH THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING/LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE NORTH OF THE REGION.  HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE MID TO U80S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH
AND EAST...WITH M70S TO L80S NORTH AND WEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND
EAST OF UPSTATE NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ANY ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ENDING PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.  IN THE WEAK COLD
ADVECTION WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY H850 TEMPS LOWER BRIEFLY TO +10C
TO +14C FROM NW TO SE OVER THE FCST AREA.  LOWS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE
IN THE M50S TO L60S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH THE LOWER VALUES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SUNDAY
SHOULD BE A NICE DAY WITH SFC DEWPTS FALLING BACK IN THE 50S...AND
HIGHS PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  MAX TEMPS
WILL STILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY MID AND U80S
IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC
CYCLONE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH AN
INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST
OF THE TRI CITIES SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE W/SW FLOW AND
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT FOCUSING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY TIED TO
THE DIURNAL HEATING.  WE WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT OR LOW CHC POPS.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...OUR FCST LEANED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE
LATEST ECMWF FOR A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  THE GFS
IS FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH...AND WOULD HAVE A DRIER
TUESDAY.  QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE.  EXPECT HIGHS TUESDAY TO
BE IN THE M70S TO L80S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND
MID AND 80S SOUTH AND EAST WITH SOME COOLER READINGS OVER THE MTNS.

OVERALL...TEMPS STILL LOOK ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EXTENDED...BUT NOT
QUITE AS WARM AS THIS WEEK...AND PCPN BELOW NORMAL...EXCEPT WHERE
ANY CONVECTION OCCURS.


&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER. JUST A FEW CLOUDS INTO
THIS EVENING...THEN SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POTENTIALLY DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT...SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS. HAVE
ACKNOWLEDGED BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FEET THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...WHEN THE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TYPICALLY LIFT AND BURN OFF. NOT PUTTING SOLID IFR
ANYWHERE UNTIL TRENDS BECOME APPARENT LATER THIS EVENING...SINCE
NO TWO NIGHTS ARE EVER EXACTLY THE SAME AS SMALL SCALE ATMOSPHERIC
FEATURES THAT SUPPORT IFR CONDITIONS MOVE AND EVOLVE DAY TO DAY.
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 14Z.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE AT 6 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 18Z WEDNESDAY...BUT LOCAL EFFECTS WILL RESULT IN
DIFFERENT WIND DIRECTIONS AT EACH TAF AT TIMES.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN VALLEY AREAS REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION LIKELY...THEN FALL INTO THE
40-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR WED AFTERNOON. THE RH SHOULD THEN RECOVER
TO 90-100 PERCENT FOR WED NT.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
SOUTHWEST BY WED AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER STEM RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5
DAYS. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MAY CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 29TH... ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBTV 282039
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
352 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR A THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE ON THURSDAY WHEN A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SOME
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH 500-1000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE...AND WITH 40-45 KNOTS OF SFC-6KM SHEAR...ANY STORM THAT
DOES DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE.
HOWEVER...CAP STILL REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS PART OF THE
REGION...AND THE ONLY TRIGGER REMAINS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STORM
MOTION WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTHEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT BUT
STILL LARGELY IN CONTROL. AS IT PASSES SOUTH...SOME SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP IN THE LOW LEVELS. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY
CLEAR...ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS/CONVECTIVE REMNANTS MAY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF VERMONT/NY OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG LIKELY ONCE
AGAIN...BUT COVERAGE MAY BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN THIS MORNINGS WITH
SLIGHTLY MORE WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ONE DAY REMOVED FROM
RAINFALL. AFTER OUR FIRST 90F AT BURLINGTON TODAY...LOWS WILL BE
MILD AND SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 60S FOR MOST...EXCEPT SOME 50S IN THE COOLEST LOCATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW/RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT 850/925MB TEMPERATURES WARM FURTHER...THUS
SHOULD BE LOOKING AT AN EVEN WARMER DAY THAN TUESDAY. EXPECTING
PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ONCE AGAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS PASSING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE. ONCE AGAIN WITH
500-1200 J/KG OF MLCAPE...WILL SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF CU FIELD OVER
THE TERRAIN AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LESS CAPPING THAN TUESDAY...HOWEVER
WIND PROFILES SHOW MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF WIND SHEAR. THUS NO
SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED. WILL BE LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AREA-WIDE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE`LL BE LOOKING AT A VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES THURSDAY...BUT APPEARS MESSY. COULD BE
LOOKING AT AN INITIAL PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND POSSIBLE AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT PUSH THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THURSDAY...WHILE THE ACTUAL FRONT DOESN`T REACH THE REGION UNTIL
LATER THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER TROUGH LAGS FURTHER BEHIND...WITH
PASSAGE OF THAT NOT LIKELY UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS THERE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER...ALTHOUGH MOST FAVORED
ACROSS VERMONT AND ESPECIALLY POINTS EAST. CURRENT NAM/GFS MODEL
FORECASTS INDICATE 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE AND NEAR 40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM
SHEAR.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS TAKES ITS TIME FILTERING IN THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD END IN THE EVENING. LOWS 55-65F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...SEASONABLE TEMPS AND WEATHER THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR UPPER LOW TAKES UP
RESIDENCE OVER HUDSONS BAY LEAVING THE NORTHEAST IN PERSISTENT
BROAD TROUGH WITH THE AXIS MAINLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

WEAK PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY BE ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM JUST ABOUT ANY DAY IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP ANY RAINFALL GENERALLY BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE
VARIOUS SHORT WAVE FEATURES MAKE PINPOINTING ANY PARTICULAR DAY`S
WEATHER DIFFICULT.

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
ON SATURDAY, BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD
LOOK TO BE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW A
WEAK COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA AS A BETTER FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION.

850 TEMPS RUNNING 10-14C WITH A TREND TOWARD COOLER BY TUE AS THE
TROF SAGS SOUTH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S. SHOULD BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS SO LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW. LIGHT NORTHWEST OR VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. CALM AGAIN AFTER 02Z LEADING TO
LIFR FOG AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z WEDNESDAY. CHANCE MVFR IN MIST
ELSEWHERE. MAINLY VFR AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WED: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE KSLK/KMPV.
THU: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS WITH PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT. ISOLD SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE.
FRI: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHC PM -SHRA.
SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE PM SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 282039
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
352 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR A THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE ON THURSDAY WHEN A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SOME
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH 500-1000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE...AND WITH 40-45 KNOTS OF SFC-6KM SHEAR...ANY STORM THAT
DOES DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE.
HOWEVER...CAP STILL REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS PART OF THE
REGION...AND THE ONLY TRIGGER REMAINS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STORM
MOTION WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTHEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT BUT
STILL LARGELY IN CONTROL. AS IT PASSES SOUTH...SOME SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP IN THE LOW LEVELS. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY
CLEAR...ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS/CONVECTIVE REMNANTS MAY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF VERMONT/NY OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG LIKELY ONCE
AGAIN...BUT COVERAGE MAY BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN THIS MORNINGS WITH
SLIGHTLY MORE WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ONE DAY REMOVED FROM
RAINFALL. AFTER OUR FIRST 90F AT BURLINGTON TODAY...LOWS WILL BE
MILD AND SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 60S FOR MOST...EXCEPT SOME 50S IN THE COOLEST LOCATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW/RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT 850/925MB TEMPERATURES WARM FURTHER...THUS
SHOULD BE LOOKING AT AN EVEN WARMER DAY THAN TUESDAY. EXPECTING
PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ONCE AGAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS PASSING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE. ONCE AGAIN WITH
500-1200 J/KG OF MLCAPE...WILL SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF CU FIELD OVER
THE TERRAIN AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LESS CAPPING THAN TUESDAY...HOWEVER
WIND PROFILES SHOW MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF WIND SHEAR. THUS NO
SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED. WILL BE LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AREA-WIDE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE`LL BE LOOKING AT A VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES THURSDAY...BUT APPEARS MESSY. COULD BE
LOOKING AT AN INITIAL PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND POSSIBLE AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT PUSH THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THURSDAY...WHILE THE ACTUAL FRONT DOESN`T REACH THE REGION UNTIL
LATER THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER TROUGH LAGS FURTHER BEHIND...WITH
PASSAGE OF THAT NOT LIKELY UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS THERE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER...ALTHOUGH MOST FAVORED
ACROSS VERMONT AND ESPECIALLY POINTS EAST. CURRENT NAM/GFS MODEL
FORECASTS INDICATE 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE AND NEAR 40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM
SHEAR.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS TAKES ITS TIME FILTERING IN THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD END IN THE EVENING. LOWS 55-65F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...SEASONABLE TEMPS AND WEATHER THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR UPPER LOW TAKES UP
RESIDENCE OVER HUDSONS BAY LEAVING THE NORTHEAST IN PERSISTENT
BROAD TROUGH WITH THE AXIS MAINLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

WEAK PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY BE ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM JUST ABOUT ANY DAY IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP ANY RAINFALL GENERALLY BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE
VARIOUS SHORT WAVE FEATURES MAKE PINPOINTING ANY PARTICULAR DAY`S
WEATHER DIFFICULT.

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
ON SATURDAY, BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD
LOOK TO BE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW A
WEAK COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA AS A BETTER FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION.

850 TEMPS RUNNING 10-14C WITH A TREND TOWARD COOLER BY TUE AS THE
TROF SAGS SOUTH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S. SHOULD BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS SO LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW. LIGHT NORTHWEST OR VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. CALM AGAIN AFTER 02Z LEADING TO
LIFR FOG AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z WEDNESDAY. CHANCE MVFR IN MIST
ELSEWHERE. MAINLY VFR AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WED: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE KSLK/KMPV.
THU: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS WITH PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT. ISOLD SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE.
FRI: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHC PM -SHRA.
SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE PM SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 282005
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
350 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR A THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE ON THURSDAY WHEN A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SOME
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH 500-1000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE...AND WITH 40-45 KNOTS OF SFC-6KM SHEAR...ANY STORM THAT
DOES DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE.
HOWEVER...CAP STILL REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS PART OF THE
REGION...AND THE ONLY TRIGGER REMAINS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STORM
MOTION WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTHEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT BUT
STILL LARGELY IN CONTROL. AS IT PASSES SOUTH...SOME SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP IN THE LOW LEVELS. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY
CLEAR...ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS/CONVECTIVE REMNANTS MAY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF VERMONT/NY OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG LIKELY ONCE
AGAIN...BUT COVERAGE MAY BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN THIS MORNINGS WITH
SLIGHTLY MORE WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ONE DAY REMOVED FROM
RAINFALL. AFTER OUR FIRST 90F AT BURLINGTON TODAY...LOWS WILL BE
MILD AND SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 60S FOR MOST...EXCEPT SOME 50S IN THE COOLEST LOCATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW/RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT 850/925MB TEMPERATURES WARM FURTHER...THUS
SHOULD BE LOOKING AT AN EVEN WARMER DAY THAN TUESDAY. EXPECTING
PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ONCE AGAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS PASSING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE. ONCE AGAIN WITH
500-1200 J/KG OF MLCAPE...WILL SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF CU FIELD OVER
THE TERRAIN AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LESS CAPPING THAN TUESDAY...HOWEVER
WIND PROFILES SHOW MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF WIND SHEAR. THUS NO
SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED. WILL BE LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AREA-WIDE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE`LL BE LOOKING AT A VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES THURSDAY...BUT APPEARS MESSY. COULD BE
LOOKING AT AN INITIAL PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND POSSIBLE AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT PUSH THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THURSDAY...WHILE THE ACTUAL FRONT DOESN`T REACH THE REGION UNTIL
LATER THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER TROUGH LAGS FURTHER BEHIND...WITH
PASSAGE OF THAT NOT LIKELY UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS THERE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER...ALTHOUGH MOST FAVORED
ACROSS VERMONT AND ESPECIALLY POINTS EAST. CURRENT NAM/GFS MODEL
FORECASTS INDICATE 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE AND NEAR 40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM
SHEAR.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS TAKES ITS TIME FILTERING IN THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD END IN THE EVENING. LOWS 55-65F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...SEASONABLE TEMPS AND WEATHER THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR UPPER LOW TAKES UP
RESIDENCE OVER HUDSONS BAY LEAVING THE NORTHEAST IN PERSISTENT
BROAD TROUGH WITH THE AXIS MAINLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

WEAK PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY BE ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM JUST ABOUT ANY DAY IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP ANY RAINFALL GENERALLY BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE
VARIOUS SHORT WAVE FEATURES MAKE PINPOINTING ANY PARTICULAR DAY`S
WEATHER DIFFICULT.

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
ON SATURDAY, BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD
LOOK TO BE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW A
WEAK COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA AS A BETTER FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION.

850 TEMPS RUNNING 10-14C WITH A TREND TOWARD COOLER BY TUE AS THE
TROF SAGS SOUTH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S. SHOULD BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS SO LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW. LIGHT NORTHWEST OR VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. CALM AGAIN AFTER 02Z LEADING TO
LIFR FOG AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z WEDNESDAY. CHANCE MVFR IN MIST
ELSEWHERE. MAINLY VFR AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WED: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE KSLK/KMPV.
THU: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS WITH PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT. ISOLD SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE.
FRI: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHC PM -SHRA.
SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE PM SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 282002
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
350 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR A THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE ON THURSDAY WHEN A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SOME
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH 500-1000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE...AND WITH 40-45 KNOTS OF SFC-6KM SHEAR...ANY STORM THAT
DOES DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE.
HOWEVER...CAP STILL REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS PART OF THE
REGION...AND THE ONLY TRIGGER REMAINS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STORM
MOTION WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTHEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT BUT
STILL LARGELY IN CONTROL. AS IT PASSES SOUTH...SOME SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP IN THE LOW LEVELS. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY
CLEAR...ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS/CONVECTIVE REMNANTS MAY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF VERMONT/NY OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG LIKELY ONCE
AGAIN...BUT COVERAGE MAY BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN THIS MORNINGS WITH
SLIGHTLY MORE WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ONE DAY REMOVED FROM
RAINFALL. AFTER OUR FIRST 90F AT BURLINGTON TODAY...LOWS WILL BE
MILD AND SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 60S FOR MOST...EXCEPT SOME 50S IN THE COOLEST LOCATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW/RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT 850/925MB TEMPERATURES WARM FURTHER...THUS
SHOULD BE LOOKING AT AN EVEN WARMER DAY THAN TUESDAY. EXPECTING
PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ONCE AGAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS PASSING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE. ONCE AGAIN WITH
500-1200 J/KG OF MLCAPE...WILL SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF CU FIELD OVER
THE TERRAIN AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LESS CAPPING THAN TUESDAY...HOWEVER
WIND PROFILES SHOW MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF WIND SHEAR. THUS NO
SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED. WILL BE LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AREA-WIDE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE`LL BE LOOKING AT A VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES THURSDAY...BUT APPEARS MESSY. COULD BE
LOOKING AT AN INITIAL PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND POSSIBLE AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT PUSH THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THURSDAY...WHILE THE ACTUAL FRONT DOESN`T REACH THE REGION UNTIL
LATER THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER TROUGH LAGS FURTHER BEHIND...WITH
PASSAGE OF THAT NOT LIKELY UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS THERE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER...ALTHOUGH MOST FAVORED
ACROSS VERMONT AND ESPECIALLY POINTS EAST. CURRENT NAM/GFS MODEL
FORECASTS INDICATE 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE AND NEAR 40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM
SHEAR.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS TAKES ITS TIME FILTERING IN THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD END IN THE EVENING. LOWS 55-65F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...SEASONABLE TEMPS AND WEATHER THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR UPPER LOW TAKES UP
RESIDENCE OVER HUDSONS BAY LEAVING THE NORTHEAST IN PERSISTENT
BROAD TROUGH WITH THE AXIS MAINLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

WEAK PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY BE ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM JUST ABOUT ANY DAY IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP ANY RAINFALL GENERALLY BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE
VARIOUS SHORT WAVE FEATURES MAKE PINPOINTING ANY PARTICULAR DAY`S
WEATHER DIFFICULT.

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
ON SATURDAY, BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD
LOOK TO BE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW A
WEAK COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA AS A BETTER FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION.

850 TEMPS RUNNING 10-14C WITH A TREND TOWARD COOLER BY TUE AS THE
TROF SAGS SOUTH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S. SHOULD BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS SO LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW. LIGHT NORTHWEST OR VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. CALM AGAIN AFTER 02Z LEADING TO
LIFR FOG AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z WEDNESDAY. CHANCE MVFR IN MIST
ELSEWHERE. MAINLY VFR AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WED: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE KSLK/KMPV.
THU: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS WITH PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT. ISOLD SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE.
FRI: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHC PM -SHRA.
SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE PM SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 282002
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
350 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR A THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE ON THURSDAY WHEN A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SOME
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH 500-1000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE...AND WITH 40-45 KNOTS OF SFC-6KM SHEAR...ANY STORM THAT
DOES DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE.
HOWEVER...CAP STILL REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS PART OF THE
REGION...AND THE ONLY TRIGGER REMAINS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STORM
MOTION WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTHEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT BUT
STILL LARGELY IN CONTROL. AS IT PASSES SOUTH...SOME SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP IN THE LOW LEVELS. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY
CLEAR...ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS/CONVECTIVE REMNANTS MAY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF VERMONT/NY OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG LIKELY ONCE
AGAIN...BUT COVERAGE MAY BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN THIS MORNINGS WITH
SLIGHTLY MORE WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ONE DAY REMOVED FROM
RAINFALL. AFTER OUR FIRST 90F AT BURLINGTON TODAY...LOWS WILL BE
MILD AND SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 60S FOR MOST...EXCEPT SOME 50S IN THE COOLEST LOCATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW/RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT 850/925MB TEMPERATURES WARM FURTHER...THUS
SHOULD BE LOOKING AT AN EVEN WARMER DAY THAN TUESDAY. EXPECTING
PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ONCE AGAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS PASSING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE. ONCE AGAIN WITH
500-1200 J/KG OF MLCAPE...WILL SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF CU FIELD OVER
THE TERRAIN AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LESS CAPPING THAN TUESDAY...HOWEVER
WIND PROFILES SHOW MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF WIND SHEAR. THUS NO
SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED. WILL BE LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AREA-WIDE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE`LL BE LOOKING AT A VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES THURSDAY...BUT APPEARS MESSY. COULD BE
LOOKING AT AN INITIAL PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND POSSIBLE AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT PUSH THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THURSDAY...WHILE THE ACTUAL FRONT DOESN`T REACH THE REGION UNTIL
LATER THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER TROUGH LAGS FURTHER BEHIND...WITH
PASSAGE OF THAT NOT LIKELY UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS THERE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER...ALTHOUGH MOST FAVORED
ACROSS VERMONT AND ESPECIALLY POINTS EAST. CURRENT NAM/GFS MODEL
FORECASTS INDICATE 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE AND NEAR 40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM
SHEAR.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS TAKES ITS TIME FILTERING IN THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD END IN THE EVENING. LOWS 55-65F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...SEASONABLE TEMPS AND WEATHER THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR UPPER LOW TAKES UP
RESIDENCE OVER HUDSONS BAY LEAVING THE NORTHEAST IN PERSISTENT
BROAD TROUGH WITH THE AXIS MAINLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

WEAK PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY BE ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM JUST ABOUT ANY DAY IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP ANY RAINFALL GENERALLY BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE
VARIOUS SHORT WAVE FEATURES MAKE PINPOINTING ANY PARTICULAR DAY`S
WEATHER DIFFICULT.

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
ON SATURDAY, BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD
LOOK TO BE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW A
WEAK COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA AS A BETTER FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION.

850 TEMPS RUNNING 10-14C WITH A TREND TOWARD COOLER BY TUE AS THE
TROF SAGS SOUTH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S. SHOULD BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS SO LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW. LIGHT NORTHWEST OR VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. CALM AGAIN AFTER 02Z LEADING TO
LIFR FOG AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z WEDNESDAY. CHANCE MVFR IN MIST
ELSEWHERE. MAINLY VFR AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WED: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE KSLK/KMPV.
THU: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS WITH PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT. ISOLD SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE.
FRI: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHC PM -SHRA.
SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE PM SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 281950
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
350 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR A THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE ON THURSDAY WHEN A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SOME
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH 500-1000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE...AND WITH 40-45 KNOTS OF SFC-6KM SHEAR...ANY STORM THAT
DOES DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE.
HOWEVER...CAP STILL REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS PART OF THE
REGION...AND THE ONLY TRIGGER REMAINS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STORM
MOTION WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTHEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT BUT
STILL LARGELY IN CONTROL. AS IT PASSES SOUTH...SOME SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP IN THE LOW LEVELS. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY
CLEAR...ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS/CONVECTIVE REMNANTS MAY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF VERMONT/NY OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG LIKELY ONCE
AGAIN...BUT COVERAGE MAY BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN THIS MORNINGS WITH
SLIGHTLY MORE WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ONE DAY REMOVED FROM
RAINFALL. AFTER OUR FIRST 90F AT BURLINGTON TODAY...LOWS WILL BE
MILD AND SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 60S FOR MOST...EXCEPT SOME 50S IN THE COOLEST LOCATIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW/RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT 850/925MB TEMPERATURES WARM FURTHER...THUS
SHOULD BE LOOKING AT AN EVEN WARMER DAY THAN TUESDAY. EXPECTING
PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ONCE AGAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS PASSING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE. ONCE AGAIN WITH
500-1200 J/KG OF MLCAPE...WILL SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF CU FIELD OVER
THE TERRAIN AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LESS CAPPING THAN TUESDAY...HOWEVER
WIND PROFILES SHOW MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF WIND SHEAR. THUS NO
SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED. WILL BE LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AREA-WIDE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE`LL BE LOOKING AT A VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES THURSDAY...BUT APPEARS MESSY. COULD BE
LOOKING AT AN INITIAL PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND POSSIBLE AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT PUSH THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THURSDAY...WHILE THE ACTUAL FRONT DOESN`T REACH THE REGION UNTIL
LATER THURSDAY EVENING. UPPER TROUGH LAGS FURTHER BEHIND...WITH
PASSAGE OF THAT NOT LIKELY UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS THERE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER...ALTHOUGH MOST FAVORED
ACROSS VERMONT AND ESPECIALLY POINTS EAST. CURRENT NAM/GFS MODEL
FORECASTS INDICATE 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE AND NEAR 40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM
SHEAR.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS TAKES ITS TIME FILTERING IN THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD END IN THE EVENING. LOWS 55-65F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...SEASONABLE TEMPS AND WEATHER THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR UPPER LOW TAKES UP
RESIDENCE OVER HUDSONS BAY LEAVING THE NORTHEAST IN PERSISTENT
BROAD TROUGH WITH THE AXIS MAINLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

WEAK PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY BE ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM JUST ABOUT ANY DAY IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP ANY RAINFALL GENERALLY BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE
VARIOUS SHORT WAVE FEATURES MAKE PINPOINTING ANY PARTICULAR DAY`S
WEATHER DIFFICULT.

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
ON SATURDAY, BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD
LOOK TO BE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW A
WEAK COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA AS A BETTER FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION.

850 TEMPS RUNNING 10-14C WITH A TREND TOWARD COOLER BY TUE AS THE
TROF SAGS SOUTH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S. SHOULD BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS SO LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW. LIGHT NORTHWEST OR VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. CALM AGAIN AFTER 02Z LEADING TO
LIFR FOG AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z WEDNESDAY. CHANCE MVFR IN MIST
ELSEWHERE. MAINLY VFR AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WED: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE KSLK/KMPV.
THU: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS WITH PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT. ISOLD SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE.
FRI: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHC PM -SHRA.
SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE PM SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...MUCCILLI
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 281925
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
325 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN FACT...SOME LOCATIONS WILL
REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SUMMER TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE HEAT WILL COME HIGHER HUMIDITY AND THE
THREAT FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY
WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS AND ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG OR SEVERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1201 PM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S AREA-WIDE AS OF 12
NOON...WITH SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF WARMING TO GO. WILL SHOW HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S (WARMEST IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY). BTV MAY FALL JUST SHORT OF
ITS FIRST 90F READING OF THE SEASON (CURRENT FORECAST OF 89F).
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING 50 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND 1000 J/KG
OF SBCAPE/500 J/KG MLCAPE...BUT STILL WELL CAPPED. THE CU FIELD IS
NOW FINALLY STARTING TO GET GOING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
PREVIOUS THINKING WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
REMAINS...ANY THREAT IS ISOLATED AT BEST...AND INITIATION
DEPENDENT ON TERRAIN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1010 AM TUESDAY...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH TODAY. THIS ALONG WITH GRADUALLY BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT
WILL PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AREAS OF
MORNING FOG HAVE BURNED OFF FOR THE MOST PART...WITH THE ONLY
OTHER CURRENT CLOUD COVER BEING SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS FROM
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVER CANADA. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE SOME CUMULUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH SOME
LOW 90S ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE LARGER VALLEYS. THIS COMBINED WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL LEAD TO SOME INSTABILITY (MLCAPE AROUND
1000 J/KG OR SO) BY THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE
LIMITED HOWEVER BY POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...A WEAK CAP IN
PLACE...AND LACK OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY FOR A TRIGGER. THAT BEING
SAID...A WEAK FEATURE PASSING THROUGH ALOFT AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE GREENS/ADIRONDACKS MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AFTER 16Z. IF A FEW ISOLATED STORMS WERE TO
DEVELOP...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THEM TO BECOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH 0-6KM AVERAGE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS.
STORM MOVEMENT EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AND
THIS SHOULD HELP TO CAP THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. BUT WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN...SOMETHING IS GOING TO TRY
AND GET GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD
BE PRETTY LIMITED. ONCE AGAIN LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S. MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AS
SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY WE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
THAT ALLOWS CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE FRONT AND
INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WHICH
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS SCENARIO. THE OTHER ELEMENT TO WATCH IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THREE STRAIGHT DAYS OF 90 DEGREE WEATHER AND THAT WOULD BE
CONSIDERED A HEAT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...SEASONABLE TEMPS AND WEATHER THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR UPPER LOW TAKES UP
RESIDENCE OVER HUDSONS BAY LEAVING THE NORTHEAST IN PERSISTENT
BROAD TROUGH WITH THE AXIS MAINLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

WEAK PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY BE ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM JUST ABOUT ANY DAY IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP ANY RAINFALL GENERALLY BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE
VARIOUS SHORT WAVE FEATURES MAKE PINPOINTING ANY PARTICULAR DAY`S
WEATHER DIFFICULT.

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
ON SATURDAY, BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD
LOOK TO BE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW A
WEAK COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA AS A BETTER FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION.

850 TEMPS RUNNING 10-14C WITH A TREND TOWARD COOLER BY TUE AS THE
TROF SAGS SOUTH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S. SHOULD BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS SO LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW. LIGHT NORTHWEST OR VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. CALM AGAIN AFTER 02Z LEADING TO
LIFR FOG AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z WEDNESDAY. CHANCE MVFR IN MIST
ELSEWHERE. MAINLY VFR AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WED: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE KSLK/KMPV.
THU: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS WITH PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT. ISOLD SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE.
FRI: MAINLY VFR. SLGHT CHC PM -SHRA.
SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE PM SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 281925
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
325 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN FACT...SOME LOCATIONS WILL
REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SUMMER TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE HEAT WILL COME HIGHER HUMIDITY AND THE
THREAT FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY
WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS AND ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG OR SEVERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1201 PM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S AREA-WIDE AS OF 12
NOON...WITH SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF WARMING TO GO. WILL SHOW HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S (WARMEST IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY). BTV MAY FALL JUST SHORT OF
ITS FIRST 90F READING OF THE SEASON (CURRENT FORECAST OF 89F).
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING 50 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND 1000 J/KG
OF SBCAPE/500 J/KG MLCAPE...BUT STILL WELL CAPPED. THE CU FIELD IS
NOW FINALLY STARTING TO GET GOING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
PREVIOUS THINKING WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
REMAINS...ANY THREAT IS ISOLATED AT BEST...AND INITIATION
DEPENDENT ON TERRAIN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1010 AM TUESDAY...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH TODAY. THIS ALONG WITH GRADUALLY BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT
WILL PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AREAS OF
MORNING FOG HAVE BURNED OFF FOR THE MOST PART...WITH THE ONLY
OTHER CURRENT CLOUD COVER BEING SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS FROM
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVER CANADA. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE SOME CUMULUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH SOME
LOW 90S ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE LARGER VALLEYS. THIS COMBINED WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL LEAD TO SOME INSTABILITY (MLCAPE AROUND
1000 J/KG OR SO) BY THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE
LIMITED HOWEVER BY POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...A WEAK CAP IN
PLACE...AND LACK OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY FOR A TRIGGER. THAT BEING
SAID...A WEAK FEATURE PASSING THROUGH ALOFT AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE GREENS/ADIRONDACKS MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AFTER 16Z. IF A FEW ISOLATED STORMS WERE TO
DEVELOP...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THEM TO BECOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH 0-6KM AVERAGE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS.
STORM MOVEMENT EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AND
THIS SHOULD HELP TO CAP THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. BUT WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN...SOMETHING IS GOING TO TRY
AND GET GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD
BE PRETTY LIMITED. ONCE AGAIN LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S. MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AS
SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY WE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
THAT ALLOWS CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE FRONT AND
INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WHICH
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS SCENARIO. THE OTHER ELEMENT TO WATCH IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THREE STRAIGHT DAYS OF 90 DEGREE WEATHER AND THAT WOULD BE
CONSIDERED A HEAT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...SEASONABLE TEMPS AND WEATHER THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR UPPER LOW TAKES UP
RESIDENCE OVER HUDSONS BAY LEAVING THE NORTHEAST IN PERSISTENT
BROAD TROUGH WITH THE AXIS MAINLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

WEAK PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY BE ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM JUST ABOUT ANY DAY IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP ANY RAINFALL GENERALLY BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE
VARIOUS SHORT WAVE FEATURES MAKE PINPOINTING ANY PARTICULAR DAY`S
WEATHER DIFFICULT.

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
ON SATURDAY, BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD
LOOK TO BE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW A
WEAK COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA AS A BETTER FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION.

850 TEMPS RUNNING 10-14C WITH A TREND TOWARD COOLER BY TUE AS THE
TROF SAGS SOUTH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S. SHOULD BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS SO LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW. LIGHT NORTHWEST OR VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. CALM AGAIN AFTER 02Z LEADING TO
LIFR FOG AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z WEDNESDAY. CHANCE MVFR IN MIST
ELSEWHERE. MAINLY VFR AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WED: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE KSLK/KMPV.
THU: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS WITH PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT. ISOLD SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE.
FRI: MAINLY VFR. SLGHT CHC PM -SHRA.
SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE PM SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 281751
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
151 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN FACT...SOME LOCATIONS WILL
REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SUMMER TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE HEAT WILL COME HIGHER HUMIDITY AND THE
THREAT FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY
WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS AND ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG OR SEVERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1201 PM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S AREA-WIDE AS OF 12
NOON...WITH SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF WARMING TO GO. WILL SHOW HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S (WARMEST IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY). BTV MAY FALL JUST SHORT OF
ITS FIRST 90F READING OF THE SEASON (CURRENT FORECAST OF 89F).
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING 50 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND 1000 J/KG
OF SBCAPE/500 J/KG MLCAPE...BUT STILL WELL CAPPED. THE CU FIELD IS
NOW FINALLY STARTING TO GET GOING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
PREVIOUS THINKING WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
REMAINS...ANY THREAT IS ISOLATED AT BEST...AND INITIATION
DEPENDENT ON TERRAIN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1010 AM TUESDAY...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH TODAY. THIS ALONG WITH GRADUALLY BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT
WILL PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AREAS OF
MORNING FOG HAVE BURNED OFF FOR THE MOST PART...WITH THE ONLY
OTHER CURRENT CLOUD COVER BEING SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS FROM
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVER CANADA. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE SOME CUMULUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH SOME
LOW 90S ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE LARGER VALLEYS. THIS COMBINED WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL LEAD TO SOME INSTABILITY (MLCAPE AROUND
1000 J/KG OR SO) BY THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE
LIMITED HOWEVER BY POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...A WEAK CAP IN
PLACE...AND LACK OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY FOR A TRIGGER. THAT BEING
SAID...A WEAK FEATURE PASSING THROUGH ALOFT AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE GREENS/ADIRONDACKS MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AFTER 16Z. IF A FEW ISOLATED STORMS WERE TO
DEVELOP...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THEM TO BECOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH 0-6KM AVERAGE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS.
STORM MOVEMENT EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AND
THIS SHOULD HELP TO CAP THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. BUT WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN...SOMETHING IS GOING TO TRY
AND GET GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD
BE PRETTY LIMITED. ONCE AGAIN LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S. MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AS
SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY WE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
THAT ALLOWS CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE FRONT AND
INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WHICH
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS SCENARIO. THE OTHER ELEMENT TO WATCH IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THREE STRAIGHT DAYS OF 90 DEGREE WEATHER AND THAT WOULD BE
CONSIDERED A HEAT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT A LARGE-SCALE POLAR
TROUGH SETS UP BEHIND IT TAKING RESIDENCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST STATES FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7. WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH, PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT ARE RATHER WEAK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA,
SO WITH THE LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
IS RATHER LOW. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY BRING A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ON SATURDAY, BUT THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES
ALLOWING FOR A DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE COOLER THAN
THIS WEEK, BUT VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHOULD BE FAIRLY
COMFORTABLE AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS SO LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW. LIGHT NORTHWEST OR VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. CALM AGAIN AFTER 02Z LEADING TO
LIFR FOG AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z WEDNESDAY. CHANCE MVFR IN MIST
ELSEWHERE. MAINLY VFR AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WED: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE KSLK/KMPV.
THU: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS WITH PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT. ISOLD SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE.
FRI: MAINLY VFR. SLGHT CHC PM -SHRA.
SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE PM SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...SISSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 281751
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
151 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN FACT...SOME LOCATIONS WILL
REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SUMMER TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE HEAT WILL COME HIGHER HUMIDITY AND THE
THREAT FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY
WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS AND ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG OR SEVERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1201 PM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S AREA-WIDE AS OF 12
NOON...WITH SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF WARMING TO GO. WILL SHOW HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S (WARMEST IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY). BTV MAY FALL JUST SHORT OF
ITS FIRST 90F READING OF THE SEASON (CURRENT FORECAST OF 89F).
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING 50 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND 1000 J/KG
OF SBCAPE/500 J/KG MLCAPE...BUT STILL WELL CAPPED. THE CU FIELD IS
NOW FINALLY STARTING TO GET GOING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
PREVIOUS THINKING WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
REMAINS...ANY THREAT IS ISOLATED AT BEST...AND INITIATION
DEPENDENT ON TERRAIN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1010 AM TUESDAY...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH TODAY. THIS ALONG WITH GRADUALLY BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT
WILL PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AREAS OF
MORNING FOG HAVE BURNED OFF FOR THE MOST PART...WITH THE ONLY
OTHER CURRENT CLOUD COVER BEING SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS FROM
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVER CANADA. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE SOME CUMULUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH SOME
LOW 90S ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE LARGER VALLEYS. THIS COMBINED WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL LEAD TO SOME INSTABILITY (MLCAPE AROUND
1000 J/KG OR SO) BY THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE
LIMITED HOWEVER BY POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...A WEAK CAP IN
PLACE...AND LACK OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY FOR A TRIGGER. THAT BEING
SAID...A WEAK FEATURE PASSING THROUGH ALOFT AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE GREENS/ADIRONDACKS MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AFTER 16Z. IF A FEW ISOLATED STORMS WERE TO
DEVELOP...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THEM TO BECOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH 0-6KM AVERAGE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS.
STORM MOVEMENT EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AND
THIS SHOULD HELP TO CAP THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. BUT WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN...SOMETHING IS GOING TO TRY
AND GET GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD
BE PRETTY LIMITED. ONCE AGAIN LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S. MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AS
SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY WE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
THAT ALLOWS CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE FRONT AND
INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WHICH
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS SCENARIO. THE OTHER ELEMENT TO WATCH IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THREE STRAIGHT DAYS OF 90 DEGREE WEATHER AND THAT WOULD BE
CONSIDERED A HEAT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT A LARGE-SCALE POLAR
TROUGH SETS UP BEHIND IT TAKING RESIDENCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST STATES FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7. WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH, PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT ARE RATHER WEAK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA,
SO WITH THE LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
IS RATHER LOW. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY BRING A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ON SATURDAY, BUT THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES
ALLOWING FOR A DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE COOLER THAN
THIS WEEK, BUT VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHOULD BE FAIRLY
COMFORTABLE AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS SO LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW. LIGHT NORTHWEST OR VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. CALM AGAIN AFTER 02Z LEADING TO
LIFR FOG AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z WEDNESDAY. CHANCE MVFR IN MIST
ELSEWHERE. MAINLY VFR AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WED: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE KSLK/KMPV.
THU: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS WITH PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT. ISOLD SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE.
FRI: MAINLY VFR. SLGHT CHC PM -SHRA.
SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE PM SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...SISSON




000
FXUS61 KALY 281717
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
117 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...TEMPS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY
SOUTH...WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER/MID 80S EVEN ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HAVE RAISED FORECAST MAX TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS TO REFLECT THE INITIAL RAPID WARMING...WITH LOWER 90S
EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND AROUND
90 FOR MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 80S
EVEN ACROSS MOST HIGHER TERRAIN.

SOME CU WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ESP IN
THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...SW ADIRONDACKS...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT. LOCAL OBS ALSO SUGGEST SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OCCURRING FROM THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE SARATOGA REGION
AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN VT. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND TEMPS
ARE FORECAST TO RISE SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE APPROACH OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM SOUTHWEST QUEBEC MAY STILL PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY WESTERN MA...WHERE SLIGHT CHC
POPS ARE INDICATED FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

ANY TSTMS COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL...ESP
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
MAY ENHANCE ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD NEARLY STEADY...OR PERHAPS FALL A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS AS MIXING DEEPENS BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH MAX TEMPS AROUND OR JUST OVER
90...MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES MAY REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY WEATHER
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY (THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK) WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE HIGH...BUT NOT EXTREME (GENERALLY IN THE 60S). AS A
RESULT...BELIEVE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GET TO THE MID OR UPPER
90S IN VALLEY AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW THE 100 DEGREE THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 60 TO 70. HIGHS THURSDAY 80 TO 90.
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD CLIMB TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70 LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS RECENT DAYS.

WITH A PREDOMINANT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT
THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. A QUIET
PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE
POSSIBLY APPROACHING ON MONDAY. GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE
LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BREAK IN THE HEAT. HOWEVER
THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AS SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH LESS TROUGHINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
JUST A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER. JUST A FEW CLOUDS INTO
THIS EVENING...THEN SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POTENTIALLY DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT...SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS. HAVE
ACKNOWLEDGED BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FEET THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...WHEN THE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TYPICALLY LIFT AND BURN OFF. NOT PUTTING SOLID IFR
ANYWHERE UNTIL TRENDS BECOME APPARENT LATER THIS EVENING...SINCE
NO TWO NIGHTS ARE EVER EXACTLY THE SAME AS SMALL SCALE ATMOSPHERIC
FEATURES THAT SUPPORT IFR CONDITIONS MOVE AND EVOLVE DAY TO DAY.
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 14Z.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE AT 6 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 18Z WEDNESDAY...BUT LOCAL EFFECTS WILL RESULT IN
DIFFERENT WIND DIRECTIONS AT EACH TAF AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 40 AND 55 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST OR NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN
ON TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY MAY
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 281717
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
117 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...TEMPS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY
SOUTH...WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER/MID 80S EVEN ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HAVE RAISED FORECAST MAX TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS TO REFLECT THE INITIAL RAPID WARMING...WITH LOWER 90S
EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND AROUND
90 FOR MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 80S
EVEN ACROSS MOST HIGHER TERRAIN.

SOME CU WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ESP IN
THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...SW ADIRONDACKS...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT. LOCAL OBS ALSO SUGGEST SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OCCURRING FROM THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE SARATOGA REGION
AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN VT. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND TEMPS
ARE FORECAST TO RISE SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE APPROACH OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM SOUTHWEST QUEBEC MAY STILL PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY WESTERN MA...WHERE SLIGHT CHC
POPS ARE INDICATED FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

ANY TSTMS COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL...ESP
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
MAY ENHANCE ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD NEARLY STEADY...OR PERHAPS FALL A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS AS MIXING DEEPENS BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH MAX TEMPS AROUND OR JUST OVER
90...MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES MAY REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY WEATHER
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY (THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK) WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE HIGH...BUT NOT EXTREME (GENERALLY IN THE 60S). AS A
RESULT...BELIEVE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GET TO THE MID OR UPPER
90S IN VALLEY AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW THE 100 DEGREE THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 60 TO 70. HIGHS THURSDAY 80 TO 90.
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD CLIMB TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70 LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS RECENT DAYS.

WITH A PREDOMINANT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT
THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. A QUIET
PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE
POSSIBLY APPROACHING ON MONDAY. GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE
LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BREAK IN THE HEAT. HOWEVER
THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AS SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH LESS TROUGHINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
JUST A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER. JUST A FEW CLOUDS INTO
THIS EVENING...THEN SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POTENTIALLY DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT...SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS. HAVE
ACKNOWLEDGED BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FEET THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...WHEN THE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TYPICALLY LIFT AND BURN OFF. NOT PUTTING SOLID IFR
ANYWHERE UNTIL TRENDS BECOME APPARENT LATER THIS EVENING...SINCE
NO TWO NIGHTS ARE EVER EXACTLY THE SAME AS SMALL SCALE ATMOSPHERIC
FEATURES THAT SUPPORT IFR CONDITIONS MOVE AND EVOLVE DAY TO DAY.
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 14Z.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE AT 6 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 18Z WEDNESDAY...BUT LOCAL EFFECTS WILL RESULT IN
DIFFERENT WIND DIRECTIONS AT EACH TAF AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 40 AND 55 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST OR NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN
ON TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY MAY
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 281717
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
117 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...TEMPS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY
SOUTH...WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER/MID 80S EVEN ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HAVE RAISED FORECAST MAX TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS TO REFLECT THE INITIAL RAPID WARMING...WITH LOWER 90S
EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND AROUND
90 FOR MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 80S
EVEN ACROSS MOST HIGHER TERRAIN.

SOME CU WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ESP IN
THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...SW ADIRONDACKS...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT. LOCAL OBS ALSO SUGGEST SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OCCURRING FROM THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE SARATOGA REGION
AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN VT. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND TEMPS
ARE FORECAST TO RISE SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE APPROACH OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM SOUTHWEST QUEBEC MAY STILL PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY WESTERN MA...WHERE SLIGHT CHC
POPS ARE INDICATED FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

ANY TSTMS COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL...ESP
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
MAY ENHANCE ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD NEARLY STEADY...OR PERHAPS FALL A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS AS MIXING DEEPENS BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH MAX TEMPS AROUND OR JUST OVER
90...MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES MAY REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY WEATHER
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY (THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK) WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE HIGH...BUT NOT EXTREME (GENERALLY IN THE 60S). AS A
RESULT...BELIEVE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GET TO THE MID OR UPPER
90S IN VALLEY AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW THE 100 DEGREE THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 60 TO 70. HIGHS THURSDAY 80 TO 90.
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD CLIMB TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70 LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS RECENT DAYS.

WITH A PREDOMINANT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT
THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. A QUIET
PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE
POSSIBLY APPROACHING ON MONDAY. GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE
LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BREAK IN THE HEAT. HOWEVER
THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AS SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH LESS TROUGHINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
JUST A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER. JUST A FEW CLOUDS INTO
THIS EVENING...THEN SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POTENTIALLY DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT...SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS. HAVE
ACKNOWLEDGED BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FEET THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...WHEN THE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TYPICALLY LIFT AND BURN OFF. NOT PUTTING SOLID IFR
ANYWHERE UNTIL TRENDS BECOME APPARENT LATER THIS EVENING...SINCE
NO TWO NIGHTS ARE EVER EXACTLY THE SAME AS SMALL SCALE ATMOSPHERIC
FEATURES THAT SUPPORT IFR CONDITIONS MOVE AND EVOLVE DAY TO DAY.
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 14Z.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE AT 6 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 18Z WEDNESDAY...BUT LOCAL EFFECTS WILL RESULT IN
DIFFERENT WIND DIRECTIONS AT EACH TAF AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 40 AND 55 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST OR NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN
ON TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY MAY
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 281717
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
117 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...TEMPS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY
SOUTH...WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER/MID 80S EVEN ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HAVE RAISED FORECAST MAX TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS TO REFLECT THE INITIAL RAPID WARMING...WITH LOWER 90S
EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND AROUND
90 FOR MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 80S
EVEN ACROSS MOST HIGHER TERRAIN.

SOME CU WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ESP IN
THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...SW ADIRONDACKS...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT. LOCAL OBS ALSO SUGGEST SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OCCURRING FROM THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE SARATOGA REGION
AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN VT. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND TEMPS
ARE FORECAST TO RISE SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE APPROACH OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM SOUTHWEST QUEBEC MAY STILL PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY WESTERN MA...WHERE SLIGHT CHC
POPS ARE INDICATED FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

ANY TSTMS COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL...ESP
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
MAY ENHANCE ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD NEARLY STEADY...OR PERHAPS FALL A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS AS MIXING DEEPENS BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH MAX TEMPS AROUND OR JUST OVER
90...MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES MAY REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY WEATHER
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY (THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK) WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE HIGH...BUT NOT EXTREME (GENERALLY IN THE 60S). AS A
RESULT...BELIEVE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GET TO THE MID OR UPPER
90S IN VALLEY AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW THE 100 DEGREE THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 60 TO 70. HIGHS THURSDAY 80 TO 90.
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD CLIMB TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70 LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS RECENT DAYS.

WITH A PREDOMINANT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT
THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. A QUIET
PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE
POSSIBLY APPROACHING ON MONDAY. GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE
LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BREAK IN THE HEAT. HOWEVER
THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AS SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH LESS TROUGHINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
JUST A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER. JUST A FEW CLOUDS INTO
THIS EVENING...THEN SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POTENTIALLY DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT...SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS. HAVE
ACKNOWLEDGED BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FEET THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...WHEN THE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TYPICALLY LIFT AND BURN OFF. NOT PUTTING SOLID IFR
ANYWHERE UNTIL TRENDS BECOME APPARENT LATER THIS EVENING...SINCE
NO TWO NIGHTS ARE EVER EXACTLY THE SAME AS SMALL SCALE ATMOSPHERIC
FEATURES THAT SUPPORT IFR CONDITIONS MOVE AND EVOLVE DAY TO DAY.
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 14Z.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE AT 6 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 18Z WEDNESDAY...BUT LOCAL EFFECTS WILL RESULT IN
DIFFERENT WIND DIRECTIONS AT EACH TAF AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 40 AND 55 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST OR NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN
ON TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY MAY
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 281717
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
117 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...TEMPS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY
SOUTH...WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER/MID 80S EVEN ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HAVE RAISED FORECAST MAX TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS TO REFLECT THE INITIAL RAPID WARMING...WITH LOWER 90S
EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND AROUND
90 FOR MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 80S
EVEN ACROSS MOST HIGHER TERRAIN.

SOME CU WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ESP IN
THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...SW ADIRONDACKS...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT. LOCAL OBS ALSO SUGGEST SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OCCURRING FROM THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE SARATOGA REGION
AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN VT. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND TEMPS
ARE FORECAST TO RISE SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE APPROACH OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM SOUTHWEST QUEBEC MAY STILL PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY WESTERN MA...WHERE SLIGHT CHC
POPS ARE INDICATED FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

ANY TSTMS COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL...ESP
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
MAY ENHANCE ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD NEARLY STEADY...OR PERHAPS FALL A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS AS MIXING DEEPENS BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH MAX TEMPS AROUND OR JUST OVER
90...MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES MAY REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY WEATHER
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY (THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK) WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE HIGH...BUT NOT EXTREME (GENERALLY IN THE 60S). AS A
RESULT...BELIEVE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GET TO THE MID OR UPPER
90S IN VALLEY AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW THE 100 DEGREE THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 60 TO 70. HIGHS THURSDAY 80 TO 90.
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD CLIMB TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70 LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS RECENT DAYS.

WITH A PREDOMINANT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT
THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. A QUIET
PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE
POSSIBLY APPROACHING ON MONDAY. GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE
LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BREAK IN THE HEAT. HOWEVER
THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AS SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH LESS TROUGHINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
JUST A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER. JUST A FEW CLOUDS INTO
THIS EVENING...THEN SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POTENTIALLY DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT...SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS. HAVE
ACKNOWLEDGED BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FEET THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...WHEN THE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TYPICALLY LIFT AND BURN OFF. NOT PUTTING SOLID IFR
ANYWHERE UNTIL TRENDS BECOME APPARENT LATER THIS EVENING...SINCE
NO TWO NIGHTS ARE EVER EXACTLY THE SAME AS SMALL SCALE ATMOSPHERIC
FEATURES THAT SUPPORT IFR CONDITIONS MOVE AND EVOLVE DAY TO DAY.
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 14Z.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE AT 6 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 18Z WEDNESDAY...BUT LOCAL EFFECTS WILL RESULT IN
DIFFERENT WIND DIRECTIONS AT EACH TAF AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 40 AND 55 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST OR NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN
ON TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY MAY
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 281717
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
117 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...TEMPS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY
SOUTH...WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER/MID 80S EVEN ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HAVE RAISED FORECAST MAX TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS TO REFLECT THE INITIAL RAPID WARMING...WITH LOWER 90S
EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND AROUND
90 FOR MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 80S
EVEN ACROSS MOST HIGHER TERRAIN.

SOME CU WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ESP IN
THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...SW ADIRONDACKS...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT. LOCAL OBS ALSO SUGGEST SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OCCURRING FROM THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE SARATOGA REGION
AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN VT. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND TEMPS
ARE FORECAST TO RISE SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE APPROACH OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM SOUTHWEST QUEBEC MAY STILL PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY WESTERN MA...WHERE SLIGHT CHC
POPS ARE INDICATED FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

ANY TSTMS COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL...ESP
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
MAY ENHANCE ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD NEARLY STEADY...OR PERHAPS FALL A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS AS MIXING DEEPENS BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH MAX TEMPS AROUND OR JUST OVER
90...MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES MAY REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY WEATHER
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY (THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK) WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE HIGH...BUT NOT EXTREME (GENERALLY IN THE 60S). AS A
RESULT...BELIEVE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GET TO THE MID OR UPPER
90S IN VALLEY AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW THE 100 DEGREE THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 60 TO 70. HIGHS THURSDAY 80 TO 90.
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD CLIMB TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70 LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS RECENT DAYS.

WITH A PREDOMINANT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT
THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. A QUIET
PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE
POSSIBLY APPROACHING ON MONDAY. GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE
LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BREAK IN THE HEAT. HOWEVER
THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AS SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH LESS TROUGHINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
JUST A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER. JUST A FEW CLOUDS INTO
THIS EVENING...THEN SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POTENTIALLY DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT...SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS. HAVE
ACKNOWLEDGED BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FEET THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...WHEN THE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TYPICALLY LIFT AND BURN OFF. NOT PUTTING SOLID IFR
ANYWHERE UNTIL TRENDS BECOME APPARENT LATER THIS EVENING...SINCE
NO TWO NIGHTS ARE EVER EXACTLY THE SAME AS SMALL SCALE ATMOSPHERIC
FEATURES THAT SUPPORT IFR CONDITIONS MOVE AND EVOLVE DAY TO DAY.
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 14Z.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE AT 6 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 18Z WEDNESDAY...BUT LOCAL EFFECTS WILL RESULT IN
DIFFERENT WIND DIRECTIONS AT EACH TAF AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 40 AND 55 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST OR NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN
ON TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY MAY
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 281635
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1235 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...TEMPS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY
SOUTH...WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER/MID 80S EVEN ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HAVE RAISED FORECAST MAX TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS TO REFLECT THE INITIAL RAPID WARMING...WITH LOWER 90S
EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND AROUND
90 FOR MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 80S
EVEN ACROSS MOST HIGHER TERRAIN.

SOME CU WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ESP IN
THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...SW ADIRONDACKS...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT. LOCAL OBS ALSO SUGGEST SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OCCURRING FROM THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE SARATOGA REGION
AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN VT. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND TEMPS
ARE FORECAST TO RISE SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE APPROACH OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM SOUTHWEST QUEBEC MAY STILL PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY WESTERN MA...WHERE SLIGHT CHC
POPS ARE INDICATED FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

ANY TSTMS COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL...ESP
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
MAY ENHANCE ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD NEARLY STEADY...OR PERHAPS FALL A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS AS MIXING DEEPENS BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH MAX TEMPS AROUND OR JUST OVER
90...MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES MAY REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY WEATHER
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY (THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK) WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE HIGH...BUT NOT EXTREME (GENERALLY IN THE 60S). AS A
RESULT...BELIEVE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GET TO THE MID OR UPPER
90S IN VALLEY AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW THE 100 DEGREE THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 60 TO 70. HIGHS THURSDAY 80 TO 90.
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD CLIMB TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70 LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS RECENT DAYS.

WITH A PREDOMINANT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT
THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. A QUIET
PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE
POSSIBLY APPROACHING ON MONDAY. GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE
LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BREAK IN THE HEAT. HOWEVER
THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AS SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH LESS TROUGHINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOG/LOW STRATUS AT THE TERMINALS WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
OCCURRING. THE FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12Z AND
13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THEREAFTER.

THEN JUST FEW-SCT CU AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AT KGFL...BUT TOO SMALL OF A
PROBABILITY TO EVEN MENTION A VCSH IN THE TAF. LESS THAN 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AT KALB/KPSF/KPOU TODAY WITH A
DECENT MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPING.

RADIATION FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
BEST CHANCES FOR IFR AT KGFL/KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KTS
BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 40 AND 55 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST OR NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN
ON TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY MAY
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 281635
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1235 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...TEMPS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY
SOUTH...WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER/MID 80S EVEN ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HAVE RAISED FORECAST MAX TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS TO REFLECT THE INITIAL RAPID WARMING...WITH LOWER 90S
EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND AROUND
90 FOR MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 80S
EVEN ACROSS MOST HIGHER TERRAIN.

SOME CU WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ESP IN
THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...SW ADIRONDACKS...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT. LOCAL OBS ALSO SUGGEST SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OCCURRING FROM THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE SARATOGA REGION
AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN VT. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND TEMPS
ARE FORECAST TO RISE SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE APPROACH OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM SOUTHWEST QUEBEC MAY STILL PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY WESTERN MA...WHERE SLIGHT CHC
POPS ARE INDICATED FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

ANY TSTMS COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL...ESP
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
MAY ENHANCE ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD NEARLY STEADY...OR PERHAPS FALL A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS AS MIXING DEEPENS BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH MAX TEMPS AROUND OR JUST OVER
90...MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES MAY REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY WEATHER
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY (THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK) WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE HIGH...BUT NOT EXTREME (GENERALLY IN THE 60S). AS A
RESULT...BELIEVE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GET TO THE MID OR UPPER
90S IN VALLEY AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW THE 100 DEGREE THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 60 TO 70. HIGHS THURSDAY 80 TO 90.
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD CLIMB TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70 LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS RECENT DAYS.

WITH A PREDOMINANT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT
THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. A QUIET
PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE
POSSIBLY APPROACHING ON MONDAY. GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE
LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BREAK IN THE HEAT. HOWEVER
THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AS SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH LESS TROUGHINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOG/LOW STRATUS AT THE TERMINALS WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
OCCURRING. THE FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12Z AND
13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THEREAFTER.

THEN JUST FEW-SCT CU AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AT KGFL...BUT TOO SMALL OF A
PROBABILITY TO EVEN MENTION A VCSH IN THE TAF. LESS THAN 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AT KALB/KPSF/KPOU TODAY WITH A
DECENT MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPING.

RADIATION FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
BEST CHANCES FOR IFR AT KGFL/KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KTS
BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 40 AND 55 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST OR NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN
ON TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY MAY
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 281635
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1235 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...TEMPS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY
SOUTH...WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER/MID 80S EVEN ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HAVE RAISED FORECAST MAX TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS TO REFLECT THE INITIAL RAPID WARMING...WITH LOWER 90S
EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND AROUND
90 FOR MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 80S
EVEN ACROSS MOST HIGHER TERRAIN.

SOME CU WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ESP IN
THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...SW ADIRONDACKS...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT. LOCAL OBS ALSO SUGGEST SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OCCURRING FROM THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE SARATOGA REGION
AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN VT. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND TEMPS
ARE FORECAST TO RISE SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE APPROACH OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM SOUTHWEST QUEBEC MAY STILL PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY WESTERN MA...WHERE SLIGHT CHC
POPS ARE INDICATED FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

ANY TSTMS COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL...ESP
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
MAY ENHANCE ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD NEARLY STEADY...OR PERHAPS FALL A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS AS MIXING DEEPENS BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH MAX TEMPS AROUND OR JUST OVER
90...MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES MAY REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY WEATHER
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY (THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK) WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE HIGH...BUT NOT EXTREME (GENERALLY IN THE 60S). AS A
RESULT...BELIEVE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GET TO THE MID OR UPPER
90S IN VALLEY AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW THE 100 DEGREE THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 60 TO 70. HIGHS THURSDAY 80 TO 90.
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD CLIMB TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70 LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS RECENT DAYS.

WITH A PREDOMINANT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT
THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. A QUIET
PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE
POSSIBLY APPROACHING ON MONDAY. GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE
LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BREAK IN THE HEAT. HOWEVER
THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AS SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH LESS TROUGHINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOG/LOW STRATUS AT THE TERMINALS WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
OCCURRING. THE FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12Z AND
13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THEREAFTER.

THEN JUST FEW-SCT CU AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AT KGFL...BUT TOO SMALL OF A
PROBABILITY TO EVEN MENTION A VCSH IN THE TAF. LESS THAN 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AT KALB/KPSF/KPOU TODAY WITH A
DECENT MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPING.

RADIATION FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
BEST CHANCES FOR IFR AT KGFL/KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KTS
BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 40 AND 55 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST OR NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN
ON TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY MAY
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 281635
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1235 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...TEMPS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY
SOUTH...WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER/MID 80S EVEN ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
HAVE RAISED FORECAST MAX TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS TO REFLECT THE INITIAL RAPID WARMING...WITH LOWER 90S
EXPECTED IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND AROUND
90 FOR MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 80S
EVEN ACROSS MOST HIGHER TERRAIN.

SOME CU WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...ESP IN
THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...SW ADIRONDACKS...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT. LOCAL OBS ALSO SUGGEST SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OCCURRING FROM THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE SARATOGA REGION
AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN VT. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND TEMPS
ARE FORECAST TO RISE SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE APPROACH OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM SOUTHWEST QUEBEC MAY STILL PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY WESTERN MA...WHERE SLIGHT CHC
POPS ARE INDICATED FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

ANY TSTMS COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL...ESP
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
MAY ENHANCE ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD NEARLY STEADY...OR PERHAPS FALL A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS AS MIXING DEEPENS BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH MAX TEMPS AROUND OR JUST OVER
90...MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES MAY REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY WEATHER
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY (THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK) WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE HIGH...BUT NOT EXTREME (GENERALLY IN THE 60S). AS A
RESULT...BELIEVE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GET TO THE MID OR UPPER
90S IN VALLEY AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW THE 100 DEGREE THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 60 TO 70. HIGHS THURSDAY 80 TO 90.
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD CLIMB TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70 LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS RECENT DAYS.

WITH A PREDOMINANT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT
THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. A QUIET
PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE
POSSIBLY APPROACHING ON MONDAY. GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE
LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BREAK IN THE HEAT. HOWEVER
THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AS SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH LESS TROUGHINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOG/LOW STRATUS AT THE TERMINALS WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
OCCURRING. THE FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12Z AND
13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THEREAFTER.

THEN JUST FEW-SCT CU AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AT KGFL...BUT TOO SMALL OF A
PROBABILITY TO EVEN MENTION A VCSH IN THE TAF. LESS THAN 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AT KALB/KPSF/KPOU TODAY WITH A
DECENT MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPING.

RADIATION FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
BEST CHANCES FOR IFR AT KGFL/KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KTS
BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 40 AND 55 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST OR NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN
ON TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY MAY
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBTV 281607
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1207 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN FACT...SOME LOCATIONS WILL
REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SUMMER TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE HEAT WILL COME HIGHER HUMIDITY AND THE
THREAT FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY
WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS AND ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG OR SEVERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1201 PM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S AREA-WIDE AS OF 12
NOON...WITH SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF WARMING TO GO. WILL SHOW HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S (WARMEST IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY). BTV MAY FALL JUST SHORT OF
ITS FIRST 90F READING OF THE SEASON (CURRENT FORECAST OF 89F).
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING 50 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND 1000 J/KG
OF SBCAPE/500 J/KG MLCAPE...BUT STILL WELL CAPPED. THE CU FIELD IS
NOW FINALLY STARTING TO GET GOING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
PREVIOUS THINKING WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
REMAINS...ANY THREAT IS ISOLATED AT BEST...AND INITIATION
DEPENDENT ON TERRAIN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1010 AM TUESDAY...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH TODAY. THIS ALONG WITH GRADUALLY BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT
WILL PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AREAS OF
MORNING FOG HAVE BURNED OFF FOR THE MOST PART...WITH THE ONLY
OTHER CURRENT CLOUD COVER BEING SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS FROM
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVER CANADA. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE SOME CUMULUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH SOME
LOW 90S ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE LARGER VALLEYS. THIS COMBINED WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL LEAD TO SOME INSTABILITY (MLCAPE AROUND
1000 J/KG OR SO) BY THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE
LIMITED HOWEVER BY POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...A WEAK CAP IN
PLACE...AND LACK OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY FOR A TRIGGER. THAT BEING
SAID...A WEAK FEATURE PASSING THROUGH ALOFT AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE GREENS/ADIRONDACKS MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AFTER 16Z. IF A FEW ISOLATED STORMS WERE TO
DEVELOP...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THEM TO BECOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH 0-6KM AVERAGE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS.
STORM MOVEMENT EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AND
THIS SHOULD HELP TO CAP THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. BUT WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN...SOMETHING IS GOING TO TRY
AND GET GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD
BE PRETTY LIMITED. ONCE AGAIN LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S. MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AS
SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY WE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
THAT ALLOWS CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE FRONT AND
INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WHICH
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS SCENARIO. THE OTHER ELEMENT TO WATCH IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THREE STRAIGHT DAYS OF 90 DEGREE WEATHER AND THAT WOULD BE
CONSIDERED A HEAT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT A LARGE-SCALE POLAR
TROUGH SETS UP BEHIND IT TAKING RESIDENCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST STATES FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7. WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH, PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT ARE RATHER WEAK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA,
SO WITH THE LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
IS RATHER LOW. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY BRING A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ON SATURDAY, BUT THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES
ALLOWING FOR A DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE COOLER THAN
THIS WEEK, BUT VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHOULD BE FAIRLY
COMFORTABLE AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR FOG AT KMPV WILL BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT 2
HOURS WITH CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE TRENDING TO SCATTERED CUMULUS BY
MID-DAY. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN REGARDS TO AREAL COVERAGE SO
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. LIGHT NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS TODAY GO
CALM AGAIN AFTER 02Z LEADING TO IFR FOG AT KMPV/KSLK AFTER 07Z
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
12Z WED - 12Z THU: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE.
12Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.
00Z FRI - 00Z SUN: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 281607
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1207 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN FACT...SOME LOCATIONS WILL
REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SUMMER TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE HEAT WILL COME HIGHER HUMIDITY AND THE
THREAT FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY
WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS AND ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG OR SEVERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1201 PM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S AREA-WIDE AS OF 12
NOON...WITH SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF WARMING TO GO. WILL SHOW HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S (WARMEST IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY). BTV MAY FALL JUST SHORT OF
ITS FIRST 90F READING OF THE SEASON (CURRENT FORECAST OF 89F).
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING 50 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND 1000 J/KG
OF SBCAPE/500 J/KG MLCAPE...BUT STILL WELL CAPPED. THE CU FIELD IS
NOW FINALLY STARTING TO GET GOING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
PREVIOUS THINKING WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
REMAINS...ANY THREAT IS ISOLATED AT BEST...AND INITIATION
DEPENDENT ON TERRAIN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1010 AM TUESDAY...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH TODAY. THIS ALONG WITH GRADUALLY BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT
WILL PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AREAS OF
MORNING FOG HAVE BURNED OFF FOR THE MOST PART...WITH THE ONLY
OTHER CURRENT CLOUD COVER BEING SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS FROM
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVER CANADA. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE SOME CUMULUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH SOME
LOW 90S ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE LARGER VALLEYS. THIS COMBINED WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL LEAD TO SOME INSTABILITY (MLCAPE AROUND
1000 J/KG OR SO) BY THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE
LIMITED HOWEVER BY POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...A WEAK CAP IN
PLACE...AND LACK OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY FOR A TRIGGER. THAT BEING
SAID...A WEAK FEATURE PASSING THROUGH ALOFT AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE GREENS/ADIRONDACKS MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AFTER 16Z. IF A FEW ISOLATED STORMS WERE TO
DEVELOP...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THEM TO BECOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH 0-6KM AVERAGE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS.
STORM MOVEMENT EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AND
THIS SHOULD HELP TO CAP THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. BUT WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN...SOMETHING IS GOING TO TRY
AND GET GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD
BE PRETTY LIMITED. ONCE AGAIN LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S. MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AS
SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY WE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
THAT ALLOWS CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE FRONT AND
INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WHICH
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS SCENARIO. THE OTHER ELEMENT TO WATCH IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THREE STRAIGHT DAYS OF 90 DEGREE WEATHER AND THAT WOULD BE
CONSIDERED A HEAT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT A LARGE-SCALE POLAR
TROUGH SETS UP BEHIND IT TAKING RESIDENCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST STATES FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7. WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH, PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT ARE RATHER WEAK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA,
SO WITH THE LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
IS RATHER LOW. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY BRING A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ON SATURDAY, BUT THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES
ALLOWING FOR A DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE COOLER THAN
THIS WEEK, BUT VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHOULD BE FAIRLY
COMFORTABLE AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR FOG AT KMPV WILL BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT 2
HOURS WITH CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE TRENDING TO SCATTERED CUMULUS BY
MID-DAY. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN REGARDS TO AREAL COVERAGE SO
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. LIGHT NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS TODAY GO
CALM AGAIN AFTER 02Z LEADING TO IFR FOG AT KMPV/KSLK AFTER 07Z
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
12Z WED - 12Z THU: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE.
12Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.
00Z FRI - 00Z SUN: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 281420
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1020 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN FACT...SOME LOCATIONS WILL
REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SUMMER TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE HEAT WILL COME HIGHER HUMIDITY AND THE
THREAT FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY
WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS AND ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG OR SEVERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1010 AM EDT TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. THIS ALONG WITH
GRADUALLY BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AREAS OF MORNING FOG HAVE BURNED OFF
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH THE ONLY OTHER CURRENT CLOUD COVER BEING SOME
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVER CANADA.
OTHERWISE...WILL SEE SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH SOME LOW 90S ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE LARGER
VALLEYS. THIS COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL LEAD TO
SOME INSTABILITY (MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG OR SO) BY THE
AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED HOWEVER BY POOR
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...A WEAK CAP IN PLACE...AND LACK OF A
SURFACE BOUNDARY FOR A TRIGGER. THAT BEING SAID...A WEAK FEATURE
PASSING THROUGH ALOFT AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
GREENS/ADIRONDACKS MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AFTER 16Z. IF A FEW ISOLATED STORMS WERE TO
DEVELOP...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THEM TO BECOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH 0-6KM AVERAGE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS.
STORM MOVEMENT EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AND
THIS SHOULD HELP TO CAP THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. BUT WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN...SOMETHING IS GOING TO TRY
AND GET GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD
BE PRETTY LIMITED. ONCE AGAIN LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S. MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AS
SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY WE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
THAT ALLOWS CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE FRONT AND
INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WHICH
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS SCENARIO. THE OTHER ELEMENT TO WATCH IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THREE STRAIGHT DAYS OF 90 DEGREE WEATHER AND THAT WOULD BE
CONSIDERED A HEAT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT A LARGE-SCALE POLAR
TROUGH SETS UP BEHIND IT TAKING RESIDENCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST STATES FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7. WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH, PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT ARE RATHER WEAK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA,
SO WITH THE LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
IS RATHER LOW. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY BRING A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ON SATURDAY, BUT THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES
ALLOWING FOR A DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE COOLER THAN
THIS WEEK, BUT VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHOULD BE FAIRLY
COMFORTABLE AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR FOG AT KMPV WILL BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT 2
HOURS WITH CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE TRENDING TO SCATTERED CUMULUS BY
MID-DAY. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN REGARDS TO AREAL COVERAGE SO
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. LIGHT NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS TODAY GO
CALM AGAIN AFTER 02Z LEADING TO IFR FOG AT KMPV/KSLK AFTER 07Z
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
12Z WED - 12Z THU: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE.
12Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.
00Z FRI - 00Z SUN: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 281420
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1020 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN FACT...SOME LOCATIONS WILL
REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SUMMER TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE HEAT WILL COME HIGHER HUMIDITY AND THE
THREAT FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY
WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS AND ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG OR SEVERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1010 AM EDT TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. THIS ALONG WITH
GRADUALLY BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AREAS OF MORNING FOG HAVE BURNED OFF
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH THE ONLY OTHER CURRENT CLOUD COVER BEING SOME
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVER CANADA.
OTHERWISE...WILL SEE SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH SOME LOW 90S ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE LARGER
VALLEYS. THIS COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL LEAD TO
SOME INSTABILITY (MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG OR SO) BY THE
AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED HOWEVER BY POOR
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...A WEAK CAP IN PLACE...AND LACK OF A
SURFACE BOUNDARY FOR A TRIGGER. THAT BEING SAID...A WEAK FEATURE
PASSING THROUGH ALOFT AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
GREENS/ADIRONDACKS MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AFTER 16Z. IF A FEW ISOLATED STORMS WERE TO
DEVELOP...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THEM TO BECOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH 0-6KM AVERAGE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS.
STORM MOVEMENT EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AND
THIS SHOULD HELP TO CAP THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. BUT WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN...SOMETHING IS GOING TO TRY
AND GET GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD
BE PRETTY LIMITED. ONCE AGAIN LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S. MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AS
SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY WE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
THAT ALLOWS CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE FRONT AND
INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WHICH
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS SCENARIO. THE OTHER ELEMENT TO WATCH IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THREE STRAIGHT DAYS OF 90 DEGREE WEATHER AND THAT WOULD BE
CONSIDERED A HEAT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT A LARGE-SCALE POLAR
TROUGH SETS UP BEHIND IT TAKING RESIDENCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST STATES FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7. WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH, PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT ARE RATHER WEAK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA,
SO WITH THE LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
IS RATHER LOW. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY BRING A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ON SATURDAY, BUT THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES
ALLOWING FOR A DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE COOLER THAN
THIS WEEK, BUT VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHOULD BE FAIRLY
COMFORTABLE AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR FOG AT KMPV WILL BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT 2
HOURS WITH CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE TRENDING TO SCATTERED CUMULUS BY
MID-DAY. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN REGARDS TO AREAL COVERAGE SO
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. LIGHT NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS TODAY GO
CALM AGAIN AFTER 02Z LEADING TO IFR FOG AT KMPV/KSLK AFTER 07Z
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
12Z WED - 12Z THU: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE.
12Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.
00Z FRI - 00Z SUN: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 281420
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1020 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN FACT...SOME LOCATIONS WILL
REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SUMMER TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE HEAT WILL COME HIGHER HUMIDITY AND THE
THREAT FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY
WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS AND ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG OR SEVERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1010 AM EDT TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. THIS ALONG WITH
GRADUALLY BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AREAS OF MORNING FOG HAVE BURNED OFF
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH THE ONLY OTHER CURRENT CLOUD COVER BEING SOME
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVER CANADA.
OTHERWISE...WILL SEE SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH SOME LOW 90S ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE LARGER
VALLEYS. THIS COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL LEAD TO
SOME INSTABILITY (MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG OR SO) BY THE
AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED HOWEVER BY POOR
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...A WEAK CAP IN PLACE...AND LACK OF A
SURFACE BOUNDARY FOR A TRIGGER. THAT BEING SAID...A WEAK FEATURE
PASSING THROUGH ALOFT AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
GREENS/ADIRONDACKS MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AFTER 16Z. IF A FEW ISOLATED STORMS WERE TO
DEVELOP...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THEM TO BECOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH 0-6KM AVERAGE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS.
STORM MOVEMENT EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AND
THIS SHOULD HELP TO CAP THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. BUT WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN...SOMETHING IS GOING TO TRY
AND GET GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD
BE PRETTY LIMITED. ONCE AGAIN LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S. MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AS
SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY WE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
THAT ALLOWS CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE FRONT AND
INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WHICH
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS SCENARIO. THE OTHER ELEMENT TO WATCH IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THREE STRAIGHT DAYS OF 90 DEGREE WEATHER AND THAT WOULD BE
CONSIDERED A HEAT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT A LARGE-SCALE POLAR
TROUGH SETS UP BEHIND IT TAKING RESIDENCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST STATES FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7. WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH, PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT ARE RATHER WEAK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA,
SO WITH THE LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
IS RATHER LOW. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY BRING A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ON SATURDAY, BUT THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES
ALLOWING FOR A DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE COOLER THAN
THIS WEEK, BUT VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHOULD BE FAIRLY
COMFORTABLE AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR FOG AT KMPV WILL BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT 2
HOURS WITH CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE TRENDING TO SCATTERED CUMULUS BY
MID-DAY. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN REGARDS TO AREAL COVERAGE SO
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. LIGHT NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS TODAY GO
CALM AGAIN AFTER 02Z LEADING TO IFR FOG AT KMPV/KSLK AFTER 07Z
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
12Z WED - 12Z THU: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE.
12Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.
00Z FRI - 00Z SUN: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 281420
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1020 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN FACT...SOME LOCATIONS WILL
REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SUMMER TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE HEAT WILL COME HIGHER HUMIDITY AND THE
THREAT FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY
WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS AND ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG OR SEVERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1010 AM EDT TUESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. THIS ALONG WITH
GRADUALLY BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AREAS OF MORNING FOG HAVE BURNED OFF
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH THE ONLY OTHER CURRENT CLOUD COVER BEING SOME
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVER CANADA.
OTHERWISE...WILL SEE SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH SOME LOW 90S ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE LARGER
VALLEYS. THIS COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL LEAD TO
SOME INSTABILITY (MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG OR SO) BY THE
AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED HOWEVER BY POOR
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...A WEAK CAP IN PLACE...AND LACK OF A
SURFACE BOUNDARY FOR A TRIGGER. THAT BEING SAID...A WEAK FEATURE
PASSING THROUGH ALOFT AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
GREENS/ADIRONDACKS MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AFTER 16Z. IF A FEW ISOLATED STORMS WERE TO
DEVELOP...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THEM TO BECOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH 0-6KM AVERAGE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS.
STORM MOVEMENT EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AND
THIS SHOULD HELP TO CAP THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. BUT WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN...SOMETHING IS GOING TO TRY
AND GET GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD
BE PRETTY LIMITED. ONCE AGAIN LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S. MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AS
SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY WE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
THAT ALLOWS CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE FRONT AND
INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WHICH
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS SCENARIO. THE OTHER ELEMENT TO WATCH IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THREE STRAIGHT DAYS OF 90 DEGREE WEATHER AND THAT WOULD BE
CONSIDERED A HEAT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT A LARGE-SCALE POLAR
TROUGH SETS UP BEHIND IT TAKING RESIDENCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST STATES FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7. WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH, PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT ARE RATHER WEAK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA,
SO WITH THE LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
IS RATHER LOW. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY BRING A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ON SATURDAY, BUT THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES
ALLOWING FOR A DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE COOLER THAN
THIS WEEK, BUT VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHOULD BE FAIRLY
COMFORTABLE AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR FOG AT KMPV WILL BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT 2
HOURS WITH CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE TRENDING TO SCATTERED CUMULUS BY
MID-DAY. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN REGARDS TO AREAL COVERAGE SO
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. LIGHT NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS TODAY GO
CALM AGAIN AFTER 02Z LEADING TO IFR FOG AT KMPV/KSLK AFTER 07Z
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
12Z WED - 12Z THU: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE.
12Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.
00Z FRI - 00Z SUN: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KALY 281356
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
956 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED AND BURNED OFF AND A SUNNY SKY
PREVAILS OVER THE REGION. AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT WARMING ALOFT AND
DEEP DRY LAYER SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE TO VERY ISOLATEED AROUND
TERRAIN. THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN
SOUTHERN VT...CLOSER TO SOME WEAK UPPER ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF CANADA BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE JUST HOW ANY
THUNDERSTORMS FORM AND/OR EVOLVE. JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE TEMPERATURES...SKY COVER AND RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY WEATHER
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY (THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK) WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE HIGH...BUT NOT EXTREME (GENERALLY IN THE 60S). AS A
RESULT...BELIEVE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GET TO THE MID OR UPPER
90S IN VALLEY AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW THE 100 DEGREE THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 60 TO 70. HIGHS THURSDAY 80 TO 90.
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD CLIMB TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70 LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS RECENT DAYS.

WITH A PREDOMINANT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT
THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. A QUIET
PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE
POSSIBLY APPROACHING ON MONDAY. GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE
LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BREAK IN THE HEAT. HOWEVER
THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AS SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH LESS TROUGHINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG/LOW STRATUS AT THE TERMINALS WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
OCCURRING. THE FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12Z AND
13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THEREAFTER.

THEN JUST FEW-SCT CU AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AT KGFL...BUT TOO SMALL OF A
PROBABILITY TO EVEN MENTION A VCSH IN THE TAF. LESS THAN 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AT KALB/KPSF/KPOU TODAY WITH A
DECENT MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPING.

RADIATION FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
BEST CHANCES FOR IFR AT KGFL/KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KTS
BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 40 AND 55 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST OR NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN
ON TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY MAY
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...IAA




000
FXUS61 KALY 281356
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
956 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED AND BURNED OFF AND A SUNNY SKY
PREVAILS OVER THE REGION. AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT WARMING ALOFT AND
DEEP DRY LAYER SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE TO VERY ISOLATEED AROUND
TERRAIN. THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN
SOUTHERN VT...CLOSER TO SOME WEAK UPPER ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF CANADA BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE JUST HOW ANY
THUNDERSTORMS FORM AND/OR EVOLVE. JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE TEMPERATURES...SKY COVER AND RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY WEATHER
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY (THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK) WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE HIGH...BUT NOT EXTREME (GENERALLY IN THE 60S). AS A
RESULT...BELIEVE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GET TO THE MID OR UPPER
90S IN VALLEY AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW THE 100 DEGREE THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 60 TO 70. HIGHS THURSDAY 80 TO 90.
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD CLIMB TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70 LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS RECENT DAYS.

WITH A PREDOMINANT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT
THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. A QUIET
PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE
POSSIBLY APPROACHING ON MONDAY. GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE
LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BREAK IN THE HEAT. HOWEVER
THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AS SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH LESS TROUGHINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG/LOW STRATUS AT THE TERMINALS WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
OCCURRING. THE FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12Z AND
13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THEREAFTER.

THEN JUST FEW-SCT CU AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AT KGFL...BUT TOO SMALL OF A
PROBABILITY TO EVEN MENTION A VCSH IN THE TAF. LESS THAN 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AT KALB/KPSF/KPOU TODAY WITH A
DECENT MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPING.

RADIATION FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
BEST CHANCES FOR IFR AT KGFL/KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KTS
BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 40 AND 55 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST OR NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN
ON TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY MAY
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KBTV 281124
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
724 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN FACT...SOME LOCATIONS WILL
REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SUMMER TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE HEAT WILL COME HIGHER HUMIDITY AND THE
THREAT FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY
WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS AND ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG OR SEVERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 724 AM EDT TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT ENHANCED
CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING HAS MOVED FAR ENOUGH
SOUTHEAST TO NOT AFFECT THE AREA ANYMORE. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM...SO ONCE WE GET RID OF SOME
MORNING FOG...THERE WILL BE NO PROBLEM GETTING INTO THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S THIS AFTERNOON. AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
60S...DEVELOPING INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM AS WELL. THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OUR MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT TODAY UNLESS SOME UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO HELP
ENHANCE DYNAMIC SUPPORT. WHAT IS EVIDENT IS THE STRENGTH OF THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION...WHICH IS STRONGER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO ALLOW
SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND THUS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. PROBABLY THE MOST
FAVORABLE AREA FOR THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FROM THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS EASTWARD AND WILL CONTINUE THIS IDEA IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AND
THIS SHOULD HELP TO CAP THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. BUT WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN...SOMETHING IS GOING TO TRY
AND GET GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD
BE PRETTY LIMITED. ONCE AGAIN LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S. MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AS
SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY WE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
THAT ALLOWS CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE FRONT AND
INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WHICH
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS SCENARIO. THE OTHER ELEMENT TO WATCH IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THREE STRAIGHT DAYS OF 90 DEGREE WEATHER AND THAT WOULD BE
CONSIDERED A HEAT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT A LARGE-SCALE POLAR
TROUGH SETS UP BEHIND IT TAKING RESIDENCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST STATES FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7. WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH, PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT ARE RATHER WEAK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA,
SO WITH THE LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
IS RATHER LOW. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY BRING A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ON SATURDAY, BUT THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES
ALLOWING FOR A DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE COOLER THAN
THIS WEEK, BUT VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHOULD BE FAIRLY
COMFORTABLE AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR FOG AT KMPV WILL BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT 2
HOURS WITH CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE TRENDING TO SCATTERED CUMULUS BY
MID-DAY. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN REGARDS TO AREAL COVERAGE SO
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. LIGHT NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS TODAY GO
CALM AGAIN AFTER 02Z LEADING TO IFR FOG AT KMPV/KSLK AFTER 07Z
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
12Z WED - 12Z THU: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE.
12Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.
00Z FRI - 00Z SUN: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 281124
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
724 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN FACT...SOME LOCATIONS WILL
REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SUMMER TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE HEAT WILL COME HIGHER HUMIDITY AND THE
THREAT FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY
WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS AND ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG OR SEVERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 724 AM EDT TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT ENHANCED
CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING HAS MOVED FAR ENOUGH
SOUTHEAST TO NOT AFFECT THE AREA ANYMORE. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM...SO ONCE WE GET RID OF SOME
MORNING FOG...THERE WILL BE NO PROBLEM GETTING INTO THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S THIS AFTERNOON. AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
60S...DEVELOPING INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM AS WELL. THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OUR MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT TODAY UNLESS SOME UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO HELP
ENHANCE DYNAMIC SUPPORT. WHAT IS EVIDENT IS THE STRENGTH OF THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION...WHICH IS STRONGER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO ALLOW
SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND THUS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. PROBABLY THE MOST
FAVORABLE AREA FOR THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FROM THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS EASTWARD AND WILL CONTINUE THIS IDEA IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AND
THIS SHOULD HELP TO CAP THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. BUT WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN...SOMETHING IS GOING TO TRY
AND GET GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD
BE PRETTY LIMITED. ONCE AGAIN LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S. MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AS
SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY WE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
THAT ALLOWS CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE FRONT AND
INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WHICH
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS SCENARIO. THE OTHER ELEMENT TO WATCH IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THREE STRAIGHT DAYS OF 90 DEGREE WEATHER AND THAT WOULD BE
CONSIDERED A HEAT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT A LARGE-SCALE POLAR
TROUGH SETS UP BEHIND IT TAKING RESIDENCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST STATES FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7. WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH, PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT ARE RATHER WEAK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA,
SO WITH THE LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
IS RATHER LOW. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY BRING A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ON SATURDAY, BUT THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES
ALLOWING FOR A DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE COOLER THAN
THIS WEEK, BUT VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHOULD BE FAIRLY
COMFORTABLE AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR FOG AT KMPV WILL BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT 2
HOURS WITH CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE TRENDING TO SCATTERED CUMULUS BY
MID-DAY. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN REGARDS TO AREAL COVERAGE SO
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. LIGHT NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS TODAY GO
CALM AGAIN AFTER 02Z LEADING TO IFR FOG AT KMPV/KSLK AFTER 07Z
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
12Z WED - 12Z THU: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE.
12Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.
00Z FRI - 00Z SUN: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 281124
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
724 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN FACT...SOME LOCATIONS WILL
REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SUMMER TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE HEAT WILL COME HIGHER HUMIDITY AND THE
THREAT FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY
WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS AND ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG OR SEVERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 724 AM EDT TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT ENHANCED
CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING HAS MOVED FAR ENOUGH
SOUTHEAST TO NOT AFFECT THE AREA ANYMORE. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM...SO ONCE WE GET RID OF SOME
MORNING FOG...THERE WILL BE NO PROBLEM GETTING INTO THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S THIS AFTERNOON. AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
60S...DEVELOPING INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM AS WELL. THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OUR MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT TODAY UNLESS SOME UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO HELP
ENHANCE DYNAMIC SUPPORT. WHAT IS EVIDENT IS THE STRENGTH OF THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION...WHICH IS STRONGER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO ALLOW
SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND THUS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. PROBABLY THE MOST
FAVORABLE AREA FOR THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FROM THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS EASTWARD AND WILL CONTINUE THIS IDEA IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AND
THIS SHOULD HELP TO CAP THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. BUT WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN...SOMETHING IS GOING TO TRY
AND GET GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD
BE PRETTY LIMITED. ONCE AGAIN LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S. MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AS
SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY WE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
THAT ALLOWS CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE FRONT AND
INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WHICH
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS SCENARIO. THE OTHER ELEMENT TO WATCH IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THREE STRAIGHT DAYS OF 90 DEGREE WEATHER AND THAT WOULD BE
CONSIDERED A HEAT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT A LARGE-SCALE POLAR
TROUGH SETS UP BEHIND IT TAKING RESIDENCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST STATES FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7. WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH, PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT ARE RATHER WEAK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA,
SO WITH THE LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
IS RATHER LOW. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY BRING A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ON SATURDAY, BUT THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES
ALLOWING FOR A DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE COOLER THAN
THIS WEEK, BUT VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHOULD BE FAIRLY
COMFORTABLE AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR FOG AT KMPV WILL BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT 2
HOURS WITH CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE TRENDING TO SCATTERED CUMULUS BY
MID-DAY. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN REGARDS TO AREAL COVERAGE SO
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. LIGHT NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS TODAY GO
CALM AGAIN AFTER 02Z LEADING TO IFR FOG AT KMPV/KSLK AFTER 07Z
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
12Z WED - 12Z THU: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE.
12Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.
00Z FRI - 00Z SUN: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 281124
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
724 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN FACT...SOME LOCATIONS WILL
REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SUMMER TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE HEAT WILL COME HIGHER HUMIDITY AND THE
THREAT FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY
WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS AND ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG OR SEVERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 724 AM EDT TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT ENHANCED
CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING HAS MOVED FAR ENOUGH
SOUTHEAST TO NOT AFFECT THE AREA ANYMORE. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM...SO ONCE WE GET RID OF SOME
MORNING FOG...THERE WILL BE NO PROBLEM GETTING INTO THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S THIS AFTERNOON. AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
60S...DEVELOPING INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM AS WELL. THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OUR MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT TODAY UNLESS SOME UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO HELP
ENHANCE DYNAMIC SUPPORT. WHAT IS EVIDENT IS THE STRENGTH OF THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION...WHICH IS STRONGER THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO ALLOW
SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND THUS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. PROBABLY THE MOST
FAVORABLE AREA FOR THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FROM THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS EASTWARD AND WILL CONTINUE THIS IDEA IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AND
THIS SHOULD HELP TO CAP THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. BUT WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN...SOMETHING IS GOING TO TRY
AND GET GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD
BE PRETTY LIMITED. ONCE AGAIN LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S. MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AS
SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY WE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
THAT ALLOWS CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE FRONT AND
INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WHICH
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS SCENARIO. THE OTHER ELEMENT TO WATCH IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THREE STRAIGHT DAYS OF 90 DEGREE WEATHER AND THAT WOULD BE
CONSIDERED A HEAT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT A LARGE-SCALE POLAR
TROUGH SETS UP BEHIND IT TAKING RESIDENCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST STATES FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7. WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH, PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT ARE RATHER WEAK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA,
SO WITH THE LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
IS RATHER LOW. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY BRING A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ON SATURDAY, BUT THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES
ALLOWING FOR A DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE COOLER THAN
THIS WEEK, BUT VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHOULD BE FAIRLY
COMFORTABLE AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR FOG AT KMPV WILL BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT 2
HOURS WITH CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE TRENDING TO SCATTERED CUMULUS BY
MID-DAY. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN REGARDS TO AREAL COVERAGE SO
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. LIGHT NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS TODAY GO
CALM AGAIN AFTER 02Z LEADING TO IFR FOG AT KMPV/KSLK AFTER 07Z
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
12Z WED - 12Z THU: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE.
12Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.
00Z FRI - 00Z SUN: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 281118
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN FACT...SOME LOCATIONS WILL
REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SUMMER TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE HEAT WILL COME HIGHER HUMIDITY AND THE
THREAT FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY
WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS AND ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG OR SEVERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT TUESDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC PROVINCE AND INTO
THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS IS THE FEATURE THAT HAS ENHANCED
CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER UPSTREAM...SO ONCE WE GET RID OF SOME MORNING FOG...THERE
WILL BE NO PROBLEM GETTING INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S THIS
AFTERNOON. AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S...DEVELOPING INSTABILITY
WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM AS WELL. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE OUR MAIN
SOURCE OF LIFT TODAY UNLESS SOME UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO HELP ENHANCE DYNAMIC SUPPORT. WHAT IS
EVIDENT IS THE STRENGTH OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
REGION...WHICH IS STRONGER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO ALLOW SOME OF THE STORMS TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND THUS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. PROBABLY THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR
THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FROM THE GREEN MOUNTAINS EASTWARD
AND WILL CONTINUE THIS IDEA IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AND
THIS SHOULD HELP TO CAP THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. BUT WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN...SOMETHING IS GOING TO TRY
AND GET GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD
BE PRETTY LIMITED. ONCE AGAIN LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S. MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AS
SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY WE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
THAT ALLOWS CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE FRONT AND
INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WHICH
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS SCENARIO. THE OTHER ELEMENT TO WATCH IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THREE STRAIGHT DAYS OF 90 DEGREE WEATHER AND THAT WOULD BE
CONSIDERED A HEAT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT A LARGE-SCALE POLAR
TROUGH SETS UP BEHIND IT TAKING RESIDENCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST STATES FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7. WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH, PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT ARE RATHER WEAK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA,
SO WITH THE LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
IS RATHER LOW. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY BRING A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ON SATURDAY, BUT THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES
ALLOWING FOR A DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE COOLER THAN
THIS WEEK, BUT VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHOULD BE FAIRLY
COMFORTABLE AS WELL WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR FOG AT KMPV WILL BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT 2
HOURS WITH CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE TRENDING TO SCATTERED CUMULUS BY
MID-DAY. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN REGARDS TO AREAL COVERAGE SO
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. LIGHT NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS TODAY GO
CALM AGAIN AFTER 02Z LEADING TO IFR FOG AT KMPV/KSLK AFTER 07Z
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
12Z WED - 12Z THU: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE.
12Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.
00Z FRI - 00Z SUN: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 281118
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN FACT...SOME LOCATIONS WILL
REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SUMMER TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE HEAT WILL COME HIGHER HUMIDITY AND THE
THREAT FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY
WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS AND ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG OR SEVERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT TUESDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC PROVINCE AND INTO
THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS IS THE FEATURE THAT HAS ENHANCED
CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER UPSTREAM...SO ONCE WE GET RID OF SOME MORNING FOG...THERE
WILL BE NO PROBLEM GETTING INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S THIS
AFTERNOON. AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S...DEVELOPING INSTABILITY
WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM AS WELL. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE OUR MAIN
SOURCE OF LIFT TODAY UNLESS SOME UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO HELP ENHANCE DYNAMIC SUPPORT. WHAT IS
EVIDENT IS THE STRENGTH OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
REGION...WHICH IS STRONGER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO ALLOW SOME OF THE STORMS TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND THUS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. PROBABLY THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR
THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FROM THE GREEN MOUNTAINS EASTWARD
AND WILL CONTINUE THIS IDEA IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AND
THIS SHOULD HELP TO CAP THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. BUT WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN...SOMETHING IS GOING TO TRY
AND GET GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD
BE PRETTY LIMITED. ONCE AGAIN LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S. MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AS
SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY WE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
THAT ALLOWS CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE FRONT AND
INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WHICH
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS SCENARIO. THE OTHER ELEMENT TO WATCH IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THREE STRAIGHT DAYS OF 90 DEGREE WEATHER AND THAT WOULD BE
CONSIDERED A HEAT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT A LARGE-SCALE POLAR
TROUGH SETS UP BEHIND IT TAKING RESIDENCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST STATES FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7. WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH, PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT ARE RATHER WEAK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA,
SO WITH THE LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
IS RATHER LOW. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY BRING A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ON SATURDAY, BUT THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES
ALLOWING FOR A DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE COOLER THAN
THIS WEEK, BUT VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHOULD BE FAIRLY
COMFORTABLE AS WELL WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR FOG AT KMPV WILL BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT 2
HOURS WITH CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE TRENDING TO SCATTERED CUMULUS BY
MID-DAY. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN REGARDS TO AREAL COVERAGE SO
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. LIGHT NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS TODAY GO
CALM AGAIN AFTER 02Z LEADING TO IFR FOG AT KMPV/KSLK AFTER 07Z
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
12Z WED - 12Z THU: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE.
12Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.
00Z FRI - 00Z SUN: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 281118
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
718 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN FACT...SOME LOCATIONS WILL
REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SUMMER TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE HEAT WILL COME HIGHER HUMIDITY AND THE
THREAT FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY
WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS AND ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG OR SEVERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT TUESDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC PROVINCE AND INTO
THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS IS THE FEATURE THAT HAS ENHANCED
CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER UPSTREAM...SO ONCE WE GET RID OF SOME MORNING FOG...THERE
WILL BE NO PROBLEM GETTING INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S THIS
AFTERNOON. AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S...DEVELOPING INSTABILITY
WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM AS WELL. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE OUR MAIN
SOURCE OF LIFT TODAY UNLESS SOME UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO HELP ENHANCE DYNAMIC SUPPORT. WHAT IS
EVIDENT IS THE STRENGTH OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
REGION...WHICH IS STRONGER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO ALLOW SOME OF THE STORMS TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND THUS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. PROBABLY THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR
THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FROM THE GREEN MOUNTAINS EASTWARD
AND WILL CONTINUE THIS IDEA IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AND
THIS SHOULD HELP TO CAP THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. BUT WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN...SOMETHING IS GOING TO TRY
AND GET GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD
BE PRETTY LIMITED. ONCE AGAIN LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S. MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AS
SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY WE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
THAT ALLOWS CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE FRONT AND
INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WHICH
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS SCENARIO. THE OTHER ELEMENT TO WATCH IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THREE STRAIGHT DAYS OF 90 DEGREE WEATHER AND THAT WOULD BE
CONSIDERED A HEAT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT A LARGE-SCALE POLAR
TROUGH SETS UP BEHIND IT TAKING RESIDENCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST STATES FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7. WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH, PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT ARE RATHER WEAK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA,
SO WITH THE LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
IS RATHER LOW. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY BRING A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ON SATURDAY, BUT THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES
ALLOWING FOR A DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE COOLER THAN
THIS WEEK, BUT VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHOULD BE FAIRLY
COMFORTABLE AS WELL WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR FOG AT KMPV WILL BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT 2
HOURS WITH CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE TRENDING TO SCATTERED CUMULUS BY
MID-DAY. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN REGARDS TO AREAL COVERAGE SO
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. LIGHT NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS TODAY GO
CALM AGAIN AFTER 02Z LEADING TO IFR FOG AT KMPV/KSLK AFTER 07Z
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
12Z WED - 12Z THU: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE.
12Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.
00Z FRI - 00Z SUN: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KALY 281052
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
652 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM...THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS THAT HAD
FORMED EARLIER ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE VORT MAX MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND HAVE NEARLY DISSIPATED. HAVE
REMOVED THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM ALL ZONES FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING AND INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG. HAVE ALSO RAISED THE HOURLY
TEMP GIRDS A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

LATER TODAY MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS NORTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY DURING MAX HEATING TIME...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS OF
20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF ALBANY.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY WEATHER
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY (THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK) WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE HIGH...BUT NOT EXTREME (GENERALLY IN THE 60S). AS A
RESULT...BELIEVE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GET TO THE MID OR UPPER
90S IN VALLEY AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW THE 100 DEGREE THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 60 TO 70. HIGHS THURSDAY 80 TO 90.
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD CLIMB TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70 LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS RECENT DAYS.

WITH A PREDOMINANT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT
THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. A QUIET
PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE
POSSIBLY APPROACHING ON MONDAY. GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE
LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BREAK IN THE HEAT. HOWEVER
THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AS SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH LESS TROUGHINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG/LOW STRATUS AT THE TERMINALS WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
OCCURRING. THE FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12Z AND
13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THEREAFTER.

THEN JUST FEW-SCT CU AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AT KGFL...BUT TOO SMALL OF A
PROBABILITY TO EVEN MENTION A VCSH IN THE TAF. LESS THAN 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AT KALB/KPSF/KPOU TODAY WITH A
DECENT MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPING.

RADIATION FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
BEST CHANCES FOR IFR AT KGFL/KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KTS
BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 40 AND 55 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST OR NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN
ON TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY MAY
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 281040
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
640 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM...THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS THAT HAD
FORMED EARLIER ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE VORT MAX MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND HAVE NEARLY DISIPATED. HAVE
REMOVED THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM ALL ZONES FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING AND INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG. HAVE ALSO RAISED THE HOURLY
TEMP GIRDS A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

LATER TODAY MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS NORTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY DURING MAX HEATING TIME...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS OF
20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF ALBANY.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY WEATHER
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 50S AROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY (THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK) WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE HIGH...BUT NOT EXTREME (GENERALLY IN THE 60S). AS A
RESULT...BELIEVE HEAT INDEX VALLUES WILL GET TO THE MID OR UPPER
90S IN VALLEY AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW THE 100 DEGREE THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 60 TO 70. HIGHS THURSDAY 80 TO 90.
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD CLIMB TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70 LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS RECENT DAYS.

WITH A PREDOMINANT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT
THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. A QUIET
PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE
POSSIBLY APPROACHING ON MONDAY. GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE
LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BREAK IN THE HEAT. HOWEVER
THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AS SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH LESS TROUGHINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WILL LEAD TO RADIATION FOG FORMATION ONCE AGAIN. BEST CHANCES FOR
IFR/LIFR WILL BE AT KGFL/KPSF...WITH KPOU/KALB LIKELY ONLY
EXPERIENCING MVFR.

ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THEREAFTER. SCT CU AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AT KGFL...BUT TOO SMALL OF A
PROBABILITY TO EVEN MENTION A VCSH IN THE TAF. LESS THAN 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AT KALB/KPSF/KPOU TODAY WITH A
DECENT MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KTS
BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 40 AND 55 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST OR NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN
ON TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY MAY
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 281040
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
640 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM...THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS THAT HAD
FORMED EARLIER ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE VORT MAX MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND HAVE NEARLY DISIPATED. HAVE
REMOVED THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM ALL ZONES FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING AND INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG. HAVE ALSO RAISED THE HOURLY
TEMP GIRDS A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

LATER TODAY MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS NORTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY DURING MAX HEATING TIME...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS OF
20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF ALBANY.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY WEATHER
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 50S AROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY (THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK) WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE HIGH...BUT NOT EXTREME (GENERALLY IN THE 60S). AS A
RESULT...BELIEVE HEAT INDEX VALLUES WILL GET TO THE MID OR UPPER
90S IN VALLEY AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW THE 100 DEGREE THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 60 TO 70. HIGHS THURSDAY 80 TO 90.
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD CLIMB TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70 LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS RECENT DAYS.

WITH A PREDOMINANT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT
THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. A QUIET
PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE
POSSIBLY APPROACHING ON MONDAY. GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE
LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BREAK IN THE HEAT. HOWEVER
THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AS SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH LESS TROUGHINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WILL LEAD TO RADIATION FOG FORMATION ONCE AGAIN. BEST CHANCES FOR
IFR/LIFR WILL BE AT KGFL/KPSF...WITH KPOU/KALB LIKELY ONLY
EXPERIENCING MVFR.

ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THEREAFTER. SCT CU AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AT KGFL...BUT TOO SMALL OF A
PROBABILITY TO EVEN MENTION A VCSH IN THE TAF. LESS THAN 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AT KALB/KPSF/KPOU TODAY WITH A
DECENT MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KTS
BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 40 AND 55 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST OR NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN
ON TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY MAY
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 281040
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
640 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM...THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS THAT HAD
FORMED EARLIER ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE VORT MAX MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND HAVE NEARLY DISIPATED. HAVE
REMOVED THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM ALL ZONES FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING AND INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG. HAVE ALSO RAISED THE HOURLY
TEMP GIRDS A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

LATER TODAY MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS NORTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY DURING MAX HEATING TIME...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS OF
20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF ALBANY.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY WEATHER
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 50S AROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY (THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK) WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE HIGH...BUT NOT EXTREME (GENERALLY IN THE 60S). AS A
RESULT...BELIEVE HEAT INDEX VALLUES WILL GET TO THE MID OR UPPER
90S IN VALLEY AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW THE 100 DEGREE THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 60 TO 70. HIGHS THURSDAY 80 TO 90.
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD CLIMB TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70 LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS RECENT DAYS.

WITH A PREDOMINANT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT
THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. A QUIET
PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE
POSSIBLY APPROACHING ON MONDAY. GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE
LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BREAK IN THE HEAT. HOWEVER
THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AS SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH LESS TROUGHINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WILL LEAD TO RADIATION FOG FORMATION ONCE AGAIN. BEST CHANCES FOR
IFR/LIFR WILL BE AT KGFL/KPSF...WITH KPOU/KALB LIKELY ONLY
EXPERIENCING MVFR.

ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THEREAFTER. SCT CU AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AT KGFL...BUT TOO SMALL OF A
PROBABILITY TO EVEN MENTION A VCSH IN THE TAF. LESS THAN 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AT KALB/KPSF/KPOU TODAY WITH A
DECENT MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KTS
BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 40 AND 55 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST OR NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN
ON TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY MAY
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 280900
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
500 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS HAD FORMED ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE VORT MAX MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND. THESE SHOWERS WERE ACROSS NORTHERN WASHINGTON...NORTHERN
WARREN AND EAST CENTRAL HAMILTON COUNTIES...AND THEY WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF ALBANY THROUGH MID
MORNING. HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT IN THESE AREAS
AS THESE SHOWERS MOVE SOUTHEAST. LATER TODAY MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF ALBANY DURING MAX
HEATING TIME...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT
FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF ALBANY.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY WEATHER
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 50S AROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY (THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK) WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE HIGH...BUT NOT EXTREME (GENERALLY IN THE 60S). AS A
RESULT...BELIEVE HEAT INDEX VALLUES WILL GET TO THE MID OR UPPER
90S IN VALLEY AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW THE 100 DEGREE THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 60 TO 70. HIGHS THURSDAY 80 TO 90.
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD CLIMB TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70 LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS RECENT DAYS.

WITH A PREDOMINANT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT
THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. A QUIET
PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE
POSSIBLY APPROACHING ON MONDAY. GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE
LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BREAK IN THE HEAT. HOWEVER
THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AS SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH LESS TROUGHINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WILL LEAD TO RADIATION FOG FORMATION ONCE AGAIN. BEST CHANCES FOR
IFR/LIFR WILL BE AT KGFL/KPSF...WITH KPOU/KALB LIKELY ONLY
EXPERIENCING MVFR.

ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THEREAFTER. SCT CU AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AT KGFL...BUT TOO SMALL OF A
PROBABILITY TO EVEN MENTION A VCSH IN THE TAF. LESS THAN 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AT KALB/KPSF/KPOU TODAY WITH A
DECENT MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KTS
BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 40 AND 55 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST OR NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN
ON TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY MAY
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 280900
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
500 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS HAD FORMED ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE VORT MAX MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND. THESE SHOWERS WERE ACROSS NORTHERN WASHINGTON...NORTHERN
WARREN AND EAST CENTRAL HAMILTON COUNTIES...AND THEY WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF ALBANY THROUGH MID
MORNING. HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT IN THESE AREAS
AS THESE SHOWERS MOVE SOUTHEAST. LATER TODAY MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF ALBANY DURING MAX
HEATING TIME...AND HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT
FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF ALBANY.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY WEATHER
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 50S AROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY (THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK) WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE HIGH...BUT NOT EXTREME (GENERALLY IN THE 60S). AS A
RESULT...BELIEVE HEAT INDEX VALLUES WILL GET TO THE MID OR UPPER
90S IN VALLEY AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW THE 100 DEGREE THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 60 TO 70. HIGHS THURSDAY 80 TO 90.
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD CLIMB TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70 LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS RECENT DAYS.

WITH A PREDOMINANT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT
THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. A QUIET
PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE
POSSIBLY APPROACHING ON MONDAY. GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE
LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BREAK IN THE HEAT. HOWEVER
THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AS SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH LESS TROUGHINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WILL LEAD TO RADIATION FOG FORMATION ONCE AGAIN. BEST CHANCES FOR
IFR/LIFR WILL BE AT KGFL/KPSF...WITH KPOU/KALB LIKELY ONLY
EXPERIENCING MVFR.

ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THEREAFTER. SCT CU AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AT KGFL...BUT TOO SMALL OF A
PROBABILITY TO EVEN MENTION A VCSH IN THE TAF. LESS THAN 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AT KALB/KPSF/KPOU TODAY WITH A
DECENT MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KTS
BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 40 AND 55 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST OR NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN
ON TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY MAY
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBTV 280740
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN FACT...SOME LOCATIONS WILL
REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SUMMER TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE HEAT WILL COME HIGHER HUMIDITY AND THE
THREAT FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY
WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS AND ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG OR SEVERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT TUESDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC PROVINCE AND INTO
THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS IS THE FEATURE THAT HAS ENHANCED
CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER UPSTREAM...SO ONCE WE GET RID OF SOME MORNING FOG...THERE
WILL BE NO PROBLEM GETTING INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S THIS
AFTERNOON. AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S...DEVELOPING INSTABILITY
WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM AS WELL. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE OUR MAIN
SOURCE OF LIFT TODAY UNLESS SOME UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO HELP ENHANCE DYNAMIC SUPPORT. WHAT IS
EVIDENT IS THE STRENGTH OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
REGION...WHICH IS STRONGER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO ALLOW SOME OF THE STORMS TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND THUS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. PROBABLY THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR
THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FROM THE GREEN MOUNTAINS EASTWARD
AND WILL CONTINUE THIS IDEA IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AND
THIS SHOULD HELP TO CAP THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. BUT WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN...SOMETHING IS GOING TO TRY
AND GET GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD
BE PRETTY LIMITED. ONCE AGAIN LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S. MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AS
SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY WE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
THAT ALLOWS CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE FRONT AND
INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WHICH
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS SCENARIO. THE OTHER ELEMENT TO WATCH IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THREE STRAIGHT DAYS OF 90 DEGREE WEATHER AND THAT WOULD BE
CONSIDERED A HEAT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT A LARGE-SCALE POLAR
TROUGH SETS UP BEHIND IT TAKING RESIDENCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST STATES FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7. WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH, PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT ARE RATHER WEAK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA,
SO WITH THE LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
IS RATHER LOW. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY BRING A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ON SATURDAY, BUT THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES
ALLOWING FOR A DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE COOLER THAN
THIS WEEK, BUT VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHOULD BE FAIRLY
COMFORTABLE AS WELL WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN TSRA WILL
END FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS.
THEREAFTER, VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BUT WILL TREND BACK DOWN TO
MVFR/IFR IN FOG AFTER 09Z FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KMSS WHERE A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND SHOULD INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOG BURNS OFF FROM
11-13Z WITH SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS FORMING THROUGH THE DAY.
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM DURING
THE AFTERNOON, BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME IN REGARDS TO
AREAL COVERAGE SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
TURN NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 14-15Z, AND GO CALM AGAIN AFTER
02Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
06Z WED - 12Z THU: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE.
12Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.
00Z FRI - 00Z SUN: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 280740
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN FACT...SOME LOCATIONS WILL
REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SUMMER TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE HEAT WILL COME HIGHER HUMIDITY AND THE
THREAT FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY
WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS AND ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG OR SEVERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT TUESDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC PROVINCE AND INTO
THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS IS THE FEATURE THAT HAS ENHANCED
CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER UPSTREAM...SO ONCE WE GET RID OF SOME MORNING FOG...THERE
WILL BE NO PROBLEM GETTING INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S THIS
AFTERNOON. AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S...DEVELOPING INSTABILITY
WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM AS WELL. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE OUR MAIN
SOURCE OF LIFT TODAY UNLESS SOME UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO HELP ENHANCE DYNAMIC SUPPORT. WHAT IS
EVIDENT IS THE STRENGTH OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
REGION...WHICH IS STRONGER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO ALLOW SOME OF THE STORMS TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND THUS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. PROBABLY THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR
THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FROM THE GREEN MOUNTAINS EASTWARD
AND WILL CONTINUE THIS IDEA IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AND
THIS SHOULD HELP TO CAP THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. BUT WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN...SOMETHING IS GOING TO TRY
AND GET GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD
BE PRETTY LIMITED. ONCE AGAIN LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S. MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AS
SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY WE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
THAT ALLOWS CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE FRONT AND
INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WHICH
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS SCENARIO. THE OTHER ELEMENT TO WATCH IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THREE STRAIGHT DAYS OF 90 DEGREE WEATHER AND THAT WOULD BE
CONSIDERED A HEAT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT A LARGE-SCALE POLAR
TROUGH SETS UP BEHIND IT TAKING RESIDENCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST STATES FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7. WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH, PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT ARE RATHER WEAK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA,
SO WITH THE LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
IS RATHER LOW. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY BRING A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ON SATURDAY, BUT THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES
ALLOWING FOR A DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE COOLER THAN
THIS WEEK, BUT VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHOULD BE FAIRLY
COMFORTABLE AS WELL WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN TSRA WILL
END FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS.
THEREAFTER, VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BUT WILL TREND BACK DOWN TO
MVFR/IFR IN FOG AFTER 09Z FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KMSS WHERE A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND SHOULD INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOG BURNS OFF FROM
11-13Z WITH SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS FORMING THROUGH THE DAY.
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM DURING
THE AFTERNOON, BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME IN REGARDS TO
AREAL COVERAGE SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
TURN NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 14-15Z, AND GO CALM AGAIN AFTER
02Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
06Z WED - 12Z THU: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE.
12Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.
00Z FRI - 00Z SUN: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 280740
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN FACT...SOME LOCATIONS WILL
REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SUMMER TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE HEAT WILL COME HIGHER HUMIDITY AND THE
THREAT FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY
WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS AND ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG OR SEVERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT TUESDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC PROVINCE AND INTO
THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS IS THE FEATURE THAT HAS ENHANCED
CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER UPSTREAM...SO ONCE WE GET RID OF SOME MORNING FOG...THERE
WILL BE NO PROBLEM GETTING INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S THIS
AFTERNOON. AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S...DEVELOPING INSTABILITY
WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM AS WELL. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE OUR MAIN
SOURCE OF LIFT TODAY UNLESS SOME UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO HELP ENHANCE DYNAMIC SUPPORT. WHAT IS
EVIDENT IS THE STRENGTH OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
REGION...WHICH IS STRONGER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO ALLOW SOME OF THE STORMS TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND THUS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. PROBABLY THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR
THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FROM THE GREEN MOUNTAINS EASTWARD
AND WILL CONTINUE THIS IDEA IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AND
THIS SHOULD HELP TO CAP THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. BUT WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN...SOMETHING IS GOING TO TRY
AND GET GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD
BE PRETTY LIMITED. ONCE AGAIN LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S. MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AS
SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY WE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
THAT ALLOWS CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE FRONT AND
INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WHICH
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS SCENARIO. THE OTHER ELEMENT TO WATCH IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THREE STRAIGHT DAYS OF 90 DEGREE WEATHER AND THAT WOULD BE
CONSIDERED A HEAT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT A LARGE-SCALE POLAR
TROUGH SETS UP BEHIND IT TAKING RESIDENCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST STATES FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7. WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH, PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT ARE RATHER WEAK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA,
SO WITH THE LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
IS RATHER LOW. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY BRING A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ON SATURDAY, BUT THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES
ALLOWING FOR A DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE COOLER THAN
THIS WEEK, BUT VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHOULD BE FAIRLY
COMFORTABLE AS WELL WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN TSRA WILL
END FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS.
THEREAFTER, VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BUT WILL TREND BACK DOWN TO
MVFR/IFR IN FOG AFTER 09Z FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KMSS WHERE A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND SHOULD INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOG BURNS OFF FROM
11-13Z WITH SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS FORMING THROUGH THE DAY.
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM DURING
THE AFTERNOON, BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME IN REGARDS TO
AREAL COVERAGE SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
TURN NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 14-15Z, AND GO CALM AGAIN AFTER
02Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
06Z WED - 12Z THU: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE.
12Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.
00Z FRI - 00Z SUN: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 280740
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
340 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN FACT...SOME LOCATIONS WILL
REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SUMMER TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE HEAT WILL COME HIGHER HUMIDITY AND THE
THREAT FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY
WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS AND ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG OR SEVERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT TUESDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC PROVINCE AND INTO
THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS IS THE FEATURE THAT HAS ENHANCED
CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER UPSTREAM...SO ONCE WE GET RID OF SOME MORNING FOG...THERE
WILL BE NO PROBLEM GETTING INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S THIS
AFTERNOON. AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S...DEVELOPING INSTABILITY
WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM AS WELL. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE OUR MAIN
SOURCE OF LIFT TODAY UNLESS SOME UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO HELP ENHANCE DYNAMIC SUPPORT. WHAT IS
EVIDENT IS THE STRENGTH OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
REGION...WHICH IS STRONGER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO ALLOW SOME OF THE STORMS TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND THUS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. PROBABLY THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR
THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FROM THE GREEN MOUNTAINS EASTWARD
AND WILL CONTINUE THIS IDEA IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AND
THIS SHOULD HELP TO CAP THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. BUT WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN...SOMETHING IS GOING TO TRY
AND GET GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD
BE PRETTY LIMITED. ONCE AGAIN LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S. MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AS
SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY WE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
THAT ALLOWS CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE FRONT AND
INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WHICH
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS SCENARIO. THE OTHER ELEMENT TO WATCH IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THREE STRAIGHT DAYS OF 90 DEGREE WEATHER AND THAT WOULD BE
CONSIDERED A HEAT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT A LARGE-SCALE POLAR
TROUGH SETS UP BEHIND IT TAKING RESIDENCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST STATES FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7. WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH, PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT ARE RATHER WEAK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA,
SO WITH THE LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
IS RATHER LOW. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY BRING A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ON SATURDAY, BUT THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES
ALLOWING FOR A DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE COOLER THAN
THIS WEEK, BUT VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHOULD BE FAIRLY
COMFORTABLE AS WELL WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN TSRA WILL
END FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS.
THEREAFTER, VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BUT WILL TREND BACK DOWN TO
MVFR/IFR IN FOG AFTER 09Z FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KMSS WHERE A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND SHOULD INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOG BURNS OFF FROM
11-13Z WITH SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS FORMING THROUGH THE DAY.
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM DURING
THE AFTERNOON, BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME IN REGARDS TO
AREAL COVERAGE SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
TURN NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 14-15Z, AND GO CALM AGAIN AFTER
02Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
06Z WED - 12Z THU: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE.
12Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.
00Z FRI - 00Z SUN: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 280712
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
312 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN FACT...SOME LOCATIONS WILL
REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SUMMER TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE HEAT WILL COME HIGHER HUMIDITY AND THE
THREAT FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY
WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS AND ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG OR SEVERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT TUESDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC PROVINCE AND INTO
THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS IS THE FEATURE THAT HAS ENHANCED
CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER UPSTREAM...SO ONCE WE GET RID OF SOME MORNING FOG...THERE
WILL BE NO PROBLEM GETTING INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S THIS
AFTERNOON. AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S...DEVELOPING INSTABILITY
WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM AS WELL. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE OUR MAIN
SOURCE OF LIFT TODAY UNLESS SOME UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO HELP ENHANCE DYNAMIC SUPPORT. WHAT IS
EVIDENT IS THE STRENGTH OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
REGION...WHICH IS STRONGER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO ALLOW SOME OF THE STORMS TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND THUS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. PROBABLY THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR
THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FROM THE GREEN MOUNTAINS EASTWARD
AND WILL CONTINUE THIS IDEA IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AND
THIS SHOULD HELP TO CAP THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. BUT WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN...SOMETHING IS GOING TO TRY
AND GET GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD
BE PRETTY LIMITED. ONCE AGAIN LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S. MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AS
SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY WE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
THAT ALLOWS CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE FRONT AND
INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WHICH
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS SCENARIO. THE OTHER ELEMENT TO WATCH IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THREE STRAIGHT DAYS OF 90 DEGREE WEATHER AND THAT WOULD BE
CONSIDERED A HEAT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM EDT MONDAY...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A
SURFACE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS. AS EXPECTED, GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THIS MORNINGS
ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET OUTPUT. WITH FAVORABLE TIMING AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY/SHEAR, POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS
STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

BEHIND THURSDAY`S FRONT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED, BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME EVIDENCE THAT A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM SATURDAY ONWARD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR TROUGH BEGINS TO
REORGANIZE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE
SOUTHERLY AND ROBUST OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE, THOUGH SOME OF THE
OTHER MEDIUM RANGE OUTPUT HAS TRENDED IN ITS DIRECTION. THUS I`M
STILL EXPECTING THAT MOST OF THE SAT-MON TIME FRAME SHOULD BE DRY,
BUT GIVEN THESE TRENDS I DID INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN TSRA WILL
END FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS.
THEREAFTER, VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BUT WILL TREND BACK DOWN TO
MVFR/IFR IN FOG AFTER 09Z FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KMSS WHERE A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND SHOULD INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOG BURNS OFF FROM
11-13Z WITH SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS FORMING THROUGH THE DAY.
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM DURING
THE AFTERNOON, BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME IN REGARDS TO
AREAL COVERAGE SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
TURN NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 14-15Z, AND GO CALM AGAIN AFTER
02Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
06Z WED - 12Z THU: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE.
12Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.
00Z FRI - 00Z SUN: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 280712
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
312 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN FACT...SOME LOCATIONS WILL
REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SUMMER TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE HEAT WILL COME HIGHER HUMIDITY AND THE
THREAT FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY
WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS AND ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG OR SEVERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT TUESDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC PROVINCE AND INTO
THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS IS THE FEATURE THAT HAS ENHANCED
CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER UPSTREAM...SO ONCE WE GET RID OF SOME MORNING FOG...THERE
WILL BE NO PROBLEM GETTING INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S THIS
AFTERNOON. AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S...DEVELOPING INSTABILITY
WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM AS WELL. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE OUR MAIN
SOURCE OF LIFT TODAY UNLESS SOME UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO HELP ENHANCE DYNAMIC SUPPORT. WHAT IS
EVIDENT IS THE STRENGTH OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
REGION...WHICH IS STRONGER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO ALLOW SOME OF THE STORMS TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND THUS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. PROBABLY THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR
THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FROM THE GREEN MOUNTAINS EASTWARD
AND WILL CONTINUE THIS IDEA IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AND
THIS SHOULD HELP TO CAP THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. BUT WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN...SOMETHING IS GOING TO TRY
AND GET GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD
BE PRETTY LIMITED. ONCE AGAIN LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S. MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AS
SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY WE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
THAT ALLOWS CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE FRONT AND
INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WHICH
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS SCENARIO. THE OTHER ELEMENT TO WATCH IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THREE STRAIGHT DAYS OF 90 DEGREE WEATHER AND THAT WOULD BE
CONSIDERED A HEAT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM EDT MONDAY...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A
SURFACE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS. AS EXPECTED, GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THIS MORNINGS
ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET OUTPUT. WITH FAVORABLE TIMING AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY/SHEAR, POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS
STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

BEHIND THURSDAY`S FRONT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED, BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME EVIDENCE THAT A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM SATURDAY ONWARD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR TROUGH BEGINS TO
REORGANIZE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE
SOUTHERLY AND ROBUST OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE, THOUGH SOME OF THE
OTHER MEDIUM RANGE OUTPUT HAS TRENDED IN ITS DIRECTION. THUS I`M
STILL EXPECTING THAT MOST OF THE SAT-MON TIME FRAME SHOULD BE DRY,
BUT GIVEN THESE TRENDS I DID INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN TSRA WILL
END FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS.
THEREAFTER, VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BUT WILL TREND BACK DOWN TO
MVFR/IFR IN FOG AFTER 09Z FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KMSS WHERE A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND SHOULD INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOG BURNS OFF FROM
11-13Z WITH SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS FORMING THROUGH THE DAY.
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM DURING
THE AFTERNOON, BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME IN REGARDS TO
AREAL COVERAGE SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
TURN NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 14-15Z, AND GO CALM AGAIN AFTER
02Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
06Z WED - 12Z THU: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE.
12Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.
00Z FRI - 00Z SUN: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 280712
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
312 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN FACT...SOME LOCATIONS WILL
REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SUMMER TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE HEAT WILL COME HIGHER HUMIDITY AND THE
THREAT FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY
WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS AND ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG OR SEVERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT TUESDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC PROVINCE AND INTO
THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS IS THE FEATURE THAT HAS ENHANCED
CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER UPSTREAM...SO ONCE WE GET RID OF SOME MORNING FOG...THERE
WILL BE NO PROBLEM GETTING INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S THIS
AFTERNOON. AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S...DEVELOPING INSTABILITY
WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM AS WELL. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE OUR MAIN
SOURCE OF LIFT TODAY UNLESS SOME UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO HELP ENHANCE DYNAMIC SUPPORT. WHAT IS
EVIDENT IS THE STRENGTH OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
REGION...WHICH IS STRONGER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO ALLOW SOME OF THE STORMS TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND THUS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. PROBABLY THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR
THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FROM THE GREEN MOUNTAINS EASTWARD
AND WILL CONTINUE THIS IDEA IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AND
THIS SHOULD HELP TO CAP THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. BUT WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN...SOMETHING IS GOING TO TRY
AND GET GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD
BE PRETTY LIMITED. ONCE AGAIN LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S. MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AS
SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY WE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
THAT ALLOWS CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE FRONT AND
INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WHICH
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS SCENARIO. THE OTHER ELEMENT TO WATCH IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THREE STRAIGHT DAYS OF 90 DEGREE WEATHER AND THAT WOULD BE
CONSIDERED A HEAT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM EDT MONDAY...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A
SURFACE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS. AS EXPECTED, GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THIS MORNINGS
ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET OUTPUT. WITH FAVORABLE TIMING AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY/SHEAR, POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS
STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

BEHIND THURSDAY`S FRONT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED, BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME EVIDENCE THAT A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM SATURDAY ONWARD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR TROUGH BEGINS TO
REORGANIZE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE
SOUTHERLY AND ROBUST OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE, THOUGH SOME OF THE
OTHER MEDIUM RANGE OUTPUT HAS TRENDED IN ITS DIRECTION. THUS I`M
STILL EXPECTING THAT MOST OF THE SAT-MON TIME FRAME SHOULD BE DRY,
BUT GIVEN THESE TRENDS I DID INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN TSRA WILL
END FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS.
THEREAFTER, VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BUT WILL TREND BACK DOWN TO
MVFR/IFR IN FOG AFTER 09Z FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KMSS WHERE A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND SHOULD INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOG BURNS OFF FROM
11-13Z WITH SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS FORMING THROUGH THE DAY.
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM DURING
THE AFTERNOON, BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME IN REGARDS TO
AREAL COVERAGE SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
TURN NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 14-15Z, AND GO CALM AGAIN AFTER
02Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
06Z WED - 12Z THU: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE.
12Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.
00Z FRI - 00Z SUN: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 280712
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
312 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN FACT...SOME LOCATIONS WILL
REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SUMMER TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE HEAT WILL COME HIGHER HUMIDITY AND THE
THREAT FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY
WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS AND ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG OR SEVERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT TUESDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC PROVINCE AND INTO
THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS IS THE FEATURE THAT HAS ENHANCED
CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER UPSTREAM...SO ONCE WE GET RID OF SOME MORNING FOG...THERE
WILL BE NO PROBLEM GETTING INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S THIS
AFTERNOON. AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S...DEVELOPING INSTABILITY
WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM AS WELL. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE OUR MAIN
SOURCE OF LIFT TODAY UNLESS SOME UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO HELP ENHANCE DYNAMIC SUPPORT. WHAT IS
EVIDENT IS THE STRENGTH OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
REGION...WHICH IS STRONGER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO ALLOW SOME OF THE STORMS TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND THUS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. PROBABLY THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR
THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FROM THE GREEN MOUNTAINS EASTWARD
AND WILL CONTINUE THIS IDEA IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AND
THIS SHOULD HELP TO CAP THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. BUT WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN...SOMETHING IS GOING TO TRY
AND GET GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD
BE PRETTY LIMITED. ONCE AGAIN LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S. MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AS
SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY WE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
THAT ALLOWS CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE FRONT AND
INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WHICH
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS SCENARIO. THE OTHER ELEMENT TO WATCH IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THREE STRAIGHT DAYS OF 90 DEGREE WEATHER AND THAT WOULD BE
CONSIDERED A HEAT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM EDT MONDAY...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A
SURFACE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS. AS EXPECTED, GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THIS MORNINGS
ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET OUTPUT. WITH FAVORABLE TIMING AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY/SHEAR, POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS
STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

BEHIND THURSDAY`S FRONT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED, BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME EVIDENCE THAT A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM SATURDAY ONWARD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR TROUGH BEGINS TO
REORGANIZE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE
SOUTHERLY AND ROBUST OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE, THOUGH SOME OF THE
OTHER MEDIUM RANGE OUTPUT HAS TRENDED IN ITS DIRECTION. THUS I`M
STILL EXPECTING THAT MOST OF THE SAT-MON TIME FRAME SHOULD BE DRY,
BUT GIVEN THESE TRENDS I DID INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN TSRA WILL
END FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS.
THEREAFTER, VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BUT WILL TREND BACK DOWN TO
MVFR/IFR IN FOG AFTER 09Z FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KMSS WHERE A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND SHOULD INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOG BURNS OFF FROM
11-13Z WITH SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS FORMING THROUGH THE DAY.
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM DURING
THE AFTERNOON, BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME IN REGARDS TO
AREAL COVERAGE SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
TURN NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 14-15Z, AND GO CALM AGAIN AFTER
02Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
06Z WED - 12Z THU: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE.
12Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.
00Z FRI - 00Z SUN: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 280549
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
149 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1243 AM EDT TUESDAY...JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL FOR BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW YORK AND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT. SHOULD LAST ANOTHER 3 TO 4 HOURS AS WELL
DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF QUEBEC AND KEEPS
THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT GOING TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR TUESDAY WE WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE FORCING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE UPPER 80S AND NEAR 90 IN SOME SPOTS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...BUT ON TUESDAY THE STORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED MORE OVER EASTERN VERMONT. FEEL THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY AND
YESTERDAY...MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.
SOME DECENT LAPSE RATES...CAPE AND JET DYNAMICS LEAD TO INCREASING
CONFIDENCE FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BE STRONG TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN FEEL THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIE DOWN AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ON WEDNESDAY WILL FINALLY
HAVE SOME INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY. TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BOTH BE WARM WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM EDT MONDAY...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A
SURFACE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS. AS EXPECTED, GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THIS MORNINGS
ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET OUTPUT. WITH FAVORABLE TIMING AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY/SHEAR, POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS
STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

BEHIND THURSDAY`S FRONT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED, BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME EVIDENCE THAT A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM SATURDAY ONWARD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR TROUGH BEGINS TO
REORGANIZE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE
SOUTHERLY AND ROBUST OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE, THOUGH SOME OF THE
OTHER MEDIUM RANGE OUTPUT HAS TRENDED IN ITS DIRECTION. THUS I`M
STILL EXPECTING THAT MOST OF THE SAT-MON TIME FRAME SHOULD BE DRY,
BUT GIVEN THESE TRENDS I DID INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN TSRA WILL
END FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS.
THEREAFTER, VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BUT WILL TREND BACK DOWN TO
MVFR/IFR IN FOG AFTER 09Z FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KMSS WHERE A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND SHOULD INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOG BURNS OFF FROM
11-13Z WITH SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS FORMING THROUGH THE DAY.
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM DURING
THE AFTERNOON, BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME IN REGARDS TO
AREAL COVERAGE SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
TURN NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 14-15Z, AND GO CALM AGAIN AFTER
02Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
06Z WED - 12Z THU: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE.
12Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.
00Z FRI - 00Z SUN: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KBTV 280549
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
149 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1243 AM EDT TUESDAY...JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL FOR BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW YORK AND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT. SHOULD LAST ANOTHER 3 TO 4 HOURS AS WELL
DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF QUEBEC AND KEEPS
THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT GOING TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR TUESDAY WE WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE FORCING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE UPPER 80S AND NEAR 90 IN SOME SPOTS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...BUT ON TUESDAY THE STORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED MORE OVER EASTERN VERMONT. FEEL THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY AND
YESTERDAY...MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.
SOME DECENT LAPSE RATES...CAPE AND JET DYNAMICS LEAD TO INCREASING
CONFIDENCE FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BE STRONG TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN FEEL THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIE DOWN AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ON WEDNESDAY WILL FINALLY
HAVE SOME INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY. TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BOTH BE WARM WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM EDT MONDAY...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A
SURFACE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS. AS EXPECTED, GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THIS MORNINGS
ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET OUTPUT. WITH FAVORABLE TIMING AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY/SHEAR, POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS
STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

BEHIND THURSDAY`S FRONT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED, BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME EVIDENCE THAT A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM SATURDAY ONWARD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR TROUGH BEGINS TO
REORGANIZE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE
SOUTHERLY AND ROBUST OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE, THOUGH SOME OF THE
OTHER MEDIUM RANGE OUTPUT HAS TRENDED IN ITS DIRECTION. THUS I`M
STILL EXPECTING THAT MOST OF THE SAT-MON TIME FRAME SHOULD BE DRY,
BUT GIVEN THESE TRENDS I DID INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN TSRA WILL
END FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS.
THEREAFTER, VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BUT WILL TREND BACK DOWN TO
MVFR/IFR IN FOG AFTER 09Z FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KMSS WHERE A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND SHOULD INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOG BURNS OFF FROM
11-13Z WITH SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS FORMING THROUGH THE DAY.
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM DURING
THE AFTERNOON, BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME IN REGARDS TO
AREAL COVERAGE SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
TURN NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 14-15Z, AND GO CALM AGAIN AFTER
02Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
06Z WED - 12Z THU: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE.
12Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.
00Z FRI - 00Z SUN: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...LAHIFF




000
FXUS61 KBTV 280549
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
149 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1243 AM EDT TUESDAY...JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL FOR BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW YORK AND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT. SHOULD LAST ANOTHER 3 TO 4 HOURS AS WELL
DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF QUEBEC AND KEEPS
THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT GOING TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR TUESDAY WE WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE FORCING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE UPPER 80S AND NEAR 90 IN SOME SPOTS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...BUT ON TUESDAY THE STORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED MORE OVER EASTERN VERMONT. FEEL THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY AND
YESTERDAY...MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.
SOME DECENT LAPSE RATES...CAPE AND JET DYNAMICS LEAD TO INCREASING
CONFIDENCE FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BE STRONG TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN FEEL THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIE DOWN AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ON WEDNESDAY WILL FINALLY
HAVE SOME INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY. TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BOTH BE WARM WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM EDT MONDAY...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A
SURFACE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS. AS EXPECTED, GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THIS MORNINGS
ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET OUTPUT. WITH FAVORABLE TIMING AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY/SHEAR, POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS
STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

BEHIND THURSDAY`S FRONT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED, BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME EVIDENCE THAT A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM SATURDAY ONWARD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR TROUGH BEGINS TO
REORGANIZE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE
SOUTHERLY AND ROBUST OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE, THOUGH SOME OF THE
OTHER MEDIUM RANGE OUTPUT HAS TRENDED IN ITS DIRECTION. THUS I`M
STILL EXPECTING THAT MOST OF THE SAT-MON TIME FRAME SHOULD BE DRY,
BUT GIVEN THESE TRENDS I DID INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN TSRA WILL
END FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS.
THEREAFTER, VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BUT WILL TREND BACK DOWN TO
MVFR/IFR IN FOG AFTER 09Z FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KMSS WHERE A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND SHOULD INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOG BURNS OFF FROM
11-13Z WITH SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS FORMING THROUGH THE DAY.
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM DURING
THE AFTERNOON, BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME IN REGARDS TO
AREAL COVERAGE SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
TURN NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 14-15Z, AND GO CALM AGAIN AFTER
02Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
06Z WED - 12Z THU: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE.
12Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.
00Z FRI - 00Z SUN: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...LAHIFF



000
FXUS61 KALY 280545
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...RADARS INDICATE TSTMS OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AND
EXTREME NORTHEAST NY WILL NOT MOVE INTO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...ANY CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS
DIMINISHED SO HAVE REDUCED CLOUD COVER TO MAINLY CLEAR IN ALL
AREAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME MINOR
TEMP ADJUSTMENTS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HEAT WILL BE THE STORY THIS WEEK.

A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THERE WILL
BE LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH SOME 50S
TONIGHT IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS. ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LOWS MAY NOT GO BELOW 70 IN THE NORMALLY WARMER
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ROUNDING OUT THE MONTH OF JULY AND HEADING INTO AUGUST...THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM...BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND AGAIN HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW
STRONG THE STORMS WILL BE AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY...BUT SHEAR AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MARGINAL AT
BEST. REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW CELLS THAT COULD BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE...WITH HEAVY RAIN ALSO BEING A THREAT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A NICE...BUT WARM DAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOWER
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE
50S...ARE USHERED INTO THE REGION WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...AS PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATE THROUGH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT.
THESE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOOKS TO OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/HIGH PEAKS OF
SOUTHERN VERMONT...TO MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION...WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS IN THE MID-
HUDSON VALLEY REACHING 90. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WILL LEAD TO RADIATION FOG FORMATION ONCE AGAIN. BEST CHANCES FOR
IFR/LIFR WILL BE AT KGFL/KPSF...WITH KPOU/KALB LIKELY ONLY
EXPERIENCING MVFR.

ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THEREAFTER. SCT CU AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AT KGFL...BUT TOO SMALL OF A
PROBABILITY TO EVEN MENTION A VCSH IN THE TAF. LESS THAN 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AT KALB/KPSF/KPOU TODAY WITH A
DECENT MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KTS
BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AND FALL TO 40 TO 60
PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS WILL BE BE FROM
THE WEST OR NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/GJM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM
SHORT TERM...SND/GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 280545
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...RADARS INDICATE TSTMS OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AND
EXTREME NORTHEAST NY WILL NOT MOVE INTO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...ANY CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS
DIMINISHED SO HAVE REDUCED CLOUD COVER TO MAINLY CLEAR IN ALL
AREAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME MINOR
TEMP ADJUSTMENTS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HEAT WILL BE THE STORY THIS WEEK.

A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THERE WILL
BE LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH SOME 50S
TONIGHT IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS. ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LOWS MAY NOT GO BELOW 70 IN THE NORMALLY WARMER
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ROUNDING OUT THE MONTH OF JULY AND HEADING INTO AUGUST...THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM...BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND AGAIN HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW
STRONG THE STORMS WILL BE AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY...BUT SHEAR AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MARGINAL AT
BEST. REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW CELLS THAT COULD BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE...WITH HEAVY RAIN ALSO BEING A THREAT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A NICE...BUT WARM DAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOWER
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE
50S...ARE USHERED INTO THE REGION WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...AS PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATE THROUGH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT.
THESE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOOKS TO OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/HIGH PEAKS OF
SOUTHERN VERMONT...TO MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION...WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS IN THE MID-
HUDSON VALLEY REACHING 90. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WILL LEAD TO RADIATION FOG FORMATION ONCE AGAIN. BEST CHANCES FOR
IFR/LIFR WILL BE AT KGFL/KPSF...WITH KPOU/KALB LIKELY ONLY
EXPERIENCING MVFR.

ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THEREAFTER. SCT CU AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AT KGFL...BUT TOO SMALL OF A
PROBABILITY TO EVEN MENTION A VCSH IN THE TAF. LESS THAN 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AT KALB/KPSF/KPOU TODAY WITH A
DECENT MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KTS
BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AND FALL TO 40 TO 60
PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS WILL BE BE FROM
THE WEST OR NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/GJM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM
SHORT TERM...SND/GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 280545
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...RADARS INDICATE TSTMS OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AND
EXTREME NORTHEAST NY WILL NOT MOVE INTO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...ANY CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS
DIMINISHED SO HAVE REDUCED CLOUD COVER TO MAINLY CLEAR IN ALL
AREAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME MINOR
TEMP ADJUSTMENTS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HEAT WILL BE THE STORY THIS WEEK.

A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THERE WILL
BE LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH SOME 50S
TONIGHT IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS. ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LOWS MAY NOT GO BELOW 70 IN THE NORMALLY WARMER
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ROUNDING OUT THE MONTH OF JULY AND HEADING INTO AUGUST...THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM...BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND AGAIN HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW
STRONG THE STORMS WILL BE AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY...BUT SHEAR AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MARGINAL AT
BEST. REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW CELLS THAT COULD BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE...WITH HEAVY RAIN ALSO BEING A THREAT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A NICE...BUT WARM DAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOWER
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE
50S...ARE USHERED INTO THE REGION WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...AS PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATE THROUGH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT.
THESE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOOKS TO OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/HIGH PEAKS OF
SOUTHERN VERMONT...TO MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION...WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS IN THE MID-
HUDSON VALLEY REACHING 90. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WILL LEAD TO RADIATION FOG FORMATION ONCE AGAIN. BEST CHANCES FOR
IFR/LIFR WILL BE AT KGFL/KPSF...WITH KPOU/KALB LIKELY ONLY
EXPERIENCING MVFR.

ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THEREAFTER. SCT CU AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AT KGFL...BUT TOO SMALL OF A
PROBABILITY TO EVEN MENTION A VCSH IN THE TAF. LESS THAN 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AT KALB/KPSF/KPOU TODAY WITH A
DECENT MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KTS
BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AND FALL TO 40 TO 60
PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS WILL BE BE FROM
THE WEST OR NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/GJM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM
SHORT TERM...SND/GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 280545
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...RADARS INDICATE TSTMS OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AND
EXTREME NORTHEAST NY WILL NOT MOVE INTO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...ANY CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS
DIMINISHED SO HAVE REDUCED CLOUD COVER TO MAINLY CLEAR IN ALL
AREAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME MINOR
TEMP ADJUSTMENTS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HEAT WILL BE THE STORY THIS WEEK.

A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THERE WILL
BE LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH SOME 50S
TONIGHT IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS. ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LOWS MAY NOT GO BELOW 70 IN THE NORMALLY WARMER
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ROUNDING OUT THE MONTH OF JULY AND HEADING INTO AUGUST...THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM...BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND AGAIN HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW
STRONG THE STORMS WILL BE AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY...BUT SHEAR AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MARGINAL AT
BEST. REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW CELLS THAT COULD BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE...WITH HEAVY RAIN ALSO BEING A THREAT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A NICE...BUT WARM DAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOWER
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE
50S...ARE USHERED INTO THE REGION WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...AS PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATE THROUGH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT.
THESE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOOKS TO OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/HIGH PEAKS OF
SOUTHERN VERMONT...TO MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION...WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS IN THE MID-
HUDSON VALLEY REACHING 90. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WILL LEAD TO RADIATION FOG FORMATION ONCE AGAIN. BEST CHANCES FOR
IFR/LIFR WILL BE AT KGFL/KPSF...WITH KPOU/KALB LIKELY ONLY
EXPERIENCING MVFR.

ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THEREAFTER. SCT CU AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AT KGFL...BUT TOO SMALL OF A
PROBABILITY TO EVEN MENTION A VCSH IN THE TAF. LESS THAN 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AT KALB/KPSF/KPOU TODAY WITH A
DECENT MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KTS
BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AND FALL TO 40 TO 60
PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS WILL BE BE FROM
THE WEST OR NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/GJM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM
SHORT TERM...SND/GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 280531
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
131 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...RADARS INDICATE TSTMS OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AND
EXTREME NORTHEAST NY WILL NOT MOVE INTO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...ANY CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS
DIMINISHED SO HAVE REDUCED CLOUD COVER TO MAINLY CLEAR IN ALL
AREAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME MINOR
TEMP ADJUSTMENTS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HEAT WILL BE THE STORY THIS WEEK.

A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THERE WILL
BE LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH SOME 50S
TONIGHT IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS. ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LOWS MAY NOT GO BELOW 70 IN THE NORMALLY WARMER
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ROUNDING OUT THE MONTH OF JULY AND HEADING INTO AUGUST...THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM...BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND AGAIN HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW
STRONG THE STORMS WILL BE AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY...BUT SHEAR AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MARGINAL AT
BEST. REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW CELLS THAT COULD BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE...WITH HEAVY RAIN ALSO BEING A THREAT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A NICE...BUT WARM DAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOWER
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE
50S...ARE USHERED INTO THE REGION WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...AS PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATE THROUGH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT.
THESE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOOKS TO OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/HIGH PEAKS OF
SOUTHERN VERMONT...TO MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION...WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS IN THE MID-
HUDSON VALLEY REACHING 90. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO IFR FOG/CIGS
AT KGFL AND KPSF...BUT ONLY TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU AND KALB.

WE BEGIN TEMPOS FOR IFR FOG BY 05Z AT KGFL AND 04Z AT KPSF BASED ON
WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT (PERSISTENCE). THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE
LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND WE ARE FORECASTING VALUES AOB
THESE VALUES AT ALL THE TAFS.

THE FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY 12Z...AND BE COMPLETELY GONE BY
BEFORE 13Z. AFTER THAT WE LOOK TO HAVE A MOSTLY SUNNY WARM VFR DAY
WITH SCT CU BASES IN THE 4000-5000 FOOT RANGE (OCCASIONALLY GOING
BROKEN AT KPSF AND KGFL).

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MAINLY KGFL AND KSPF
THAT WILL BE TIED INTO A VERY WEAK BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT
OF ANY THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING ANY TAFS WAS LOW ENOUGH (UNDER 25
PERCENT) SO NO MENTION IN THE TAFS (NOT EVEN VCSH) AT THIS POINT.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT...VARIABLE AROUND 5KTS
AT KGFL...VARIABLE TO WESTERLY 5-10KTS AT THE REMAINING TAF
SITES.


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AND FALL TO 40 TO 60
PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS WILL BE BE FROM
THE WEST OR NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/GJM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM
SHORT TERM...SND/GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 280531
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
131 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...RADARS INDICATE TSTMS OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AND
EXTREME NORTHEAST NY WILL NOT MOVE INTO THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...ANY CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS
DIMINISHED SO HAVE REDUCED CLOUD COVER TO MAINLY CLEAR IN ALL
AREAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME MINOR
TEMP ADJUSTMENTS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HEAT WILL BE THE STORY THIS WEEK.

A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THERE WILL
BE LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH SOME 50S
TONIGHT IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS. ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LOWS MAY NOT GO BELOW 70 IN THE NORMALLY WARMER
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ROUNDING OUT THE MONTH OF JULY AND HEADING INTO AUGUST...THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM...BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND AGAIN HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW
STRONG THE STORMS WILL BE AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY...BUT SHEAR AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MARGINAL AT
BEST. REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW CELLS THAT COULD BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE...WITH HEAVY RAIN ALSO BEING A THREAT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A NICE...BUT WARM DAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOWER
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE
50S...ARE USHERED INTO THE REGION WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...AS PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATE THROUGH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT.
THESE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOOKS TO OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/HIGH PEAKS OF
SOUTHERN VERMONT...TO MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION...WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS IN THE MID-
HUDSON VALLEY REACHING 90. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO IFR FOG/CIGS
AT KGFL AND KPSF...BUT ONLY TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU AND KALB.

WE BEGIN TEMPOS FOR IFR FOG BY 05Z AT KGFL AND 04Z AT KPSF BASED ON
WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT (PERSISTENCE). THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE
LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND WE ARE FORECASTING VALUES AOB
THESE VALUES AT ALL THE TAFS.

THE FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY 12Z...AND BE COMPLETELY GONE BY
BEFORE 13Z. AFTER THAT WE LOOK TO HAVE A MOSTLY SUNNY WARM VFR DAY
WITH SCT CU BASES IN THE 4000-5000 FOOT RANGE (OCCASIONALLY GOING
BROKEN AT KPSF AND KGFL).

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MAINLY KGFL AND KSPF
THAT WILL BE TIED INTO A VERY WEAK BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT
OF ANY THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING ANY TAFS WAS LOW ENOUGH (UNDER 25
PERCENT) SO NO MENTION IN THE TAFS (NOT EVEN VCSH) AT THIS POINT.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT...VARIABLE AROUND 5KTS
AT KGFL...VARIABLE TO WESTERLY 5-10KTS AT THE REMAINING TAF
SITES.


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AND FALL TO 40 TO 60
PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS WILL BE BE FROM
THE WEST OR NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/GJM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM
SHORT TERM...SND/GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBTV 280443
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1243 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1243 AM EDT TUESDAY...JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL FOR BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW YORK AND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT. SHOULD LAST ANOTHER 3 TO 4 HOURS AS WELL
DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF QUEBEC AND KEEPS
THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT GOING TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR TUESDAY WE WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE FORCING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE UPPER 80S AND NEAR 90 IN SOME SPOTS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...BUT ON TUESDAY THE STORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED MORE OVER EASTERN VERMONT. FEEL THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY AND
YESTERDAY...MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.
SOME DECENT LAPSE RATES...CAPE AND JET DYNAMICS LEAD TO INCREASING
CONFIDENCE FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BE STRONG TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN FEEL THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIE DOWN AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ON WEDNESDAY WILL FINALLY
HAVE SOME INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY. TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BOTH BE WARM WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM EDT MONDAY...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A
SURFACE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS. AS EXPECTED, GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THIS MORNINGS
ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET OUTPUT. WITH FAVORABLE TIMING AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY/SHEAR, POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS
STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

BEHIND THURSDAY`S FRONT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED, BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME EVIDENCE THAT A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM SATURDAY ONWARD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR TROUGH BEGINS TO
REORGANIZE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE
SOUTHERLY AND ROBUST OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE, THOUGH SOME OF THE
OTHER MEDIUM RANGE OUTPUT HAS TRENDED IN ITS DIRECTION. THUS I`M
STILL EXPECTING THAT MOST OF THE SAT-MON TIME FRAME SHOULD BE DRY,
BUT GIVEN THESE TRENDS I DID INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH LIGHT, SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS, ISOLATED
CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY,
BUT OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AFTER 06Z PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK, AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. TOMORROW WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 05-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE 18-02Z TIME FRAME. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. IFR IN BR/FG ALSO POSSIBLE
AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS
WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/MV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 280443
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1243 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1243 AM EDT TUESDAY...JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL FOR BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW YORK AND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT. SHOULD LAST ANOTHER 3 TO 4 HOURS AS WELL
DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF QUEBEC AND KEEPS
THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT GOING TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR TUESDAY WE WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE FORCING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE UPPER 80S AND NEAR 90 IN SOME SPOTS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...BUT ON TUESDAY THE STORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED MORE OVER EASTERN VERMONT. FEEL THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY AND
YESTERDAY...MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.
SOME DECENT LAPSE RATES...CAPE AND JET DYNAMICS LEAD TO INCREASING
CONFIDENCE FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BE STRONG TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN FEEL THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIE DOWN AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ON WEDNESDAY WILL FINALLY
HAVE SOME INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY. TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BOTH BE WARM WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM EDT MONDAY...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A
SURFACE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS. AS EXPECTED, GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THIS MORNINGS
ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET OUTPUT. WITH FAVORABLE TIMING AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY/SHEAR, POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS
STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

BEHIND THURSDAY`S FRONT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED, BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME EVIDENCE THAT A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM SATURDAY ONWARD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR TROUGH BEGINS TO
REORGANIZE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE
SOUTHERLY AND ROBUST OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE, THOUGH SOME OF THE
OTHER MEDIUM RANGE OUTPUT HAS TRENDED IN ITS DIRECTION. THUS I`M
STILL EXPECTING THAT MOST OF THE SAT-MON TIME FRAME SHOULD BE DRY,
BUT GIVEN THESE TRENDS I DID INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH LIGHT, SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS, ISOLATED
CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY,
BUT OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AFTER 06Z PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK, AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. TOMORROW WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 05-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE 18-02Z TIME FRAME. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. IFR IN BR/FG ALSO POSSIBLE
AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS
WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/MV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 280443
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1243 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1243 AM EDT TUESDAY...JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL FOR BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW YORK AND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT. SHOULD LAST ANOTHER 3 TO 4 HOURS AS WELL
DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF QUEBEC AND KEEPS
THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT GOING TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR TUESDAY WE WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE FORCING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE UPPER 80S AND NEAR 90 IN SOME SPOTS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...BUT ON TUESDAY THE STORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED MORE OVER EASTERN VERMONT. FEEL THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY AND
YESTERDAY...MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.
SOME DECENT LAPSE RATES...CAPE AND JET DYNAMICS LEAD TO INCREASING
CONFIDENCE FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BE STRONG TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN FEEL THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIE DOWN AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ON WEDNESDAY WILL FINALLY
HAVE SOME INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY. TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BOTH BE WARM WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM EDT MONDAY...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A
SURFACE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS. AS EXPECTED, GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THIS MORNINGS
ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET OUTPUT. WITH FAVORABLE TIMING AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY/SHEAR, POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS
STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

BEHIND THURSDAY`S FRONT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED, BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME EVIDENCE THAT A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM SATURDAY ONWARD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR TROUGH BEGINS TO
REORGANIZE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE
SOUTHERLY AND ROBUST OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE, THOUGH SOME OF THE
OTHER MEDIUM RANGE OUTPUT HAS TRENDED IN ITS DIRECTION. THUS I`M
STILL EXPECTING THAT MOST OF THE SAT-MON TIME FRAME SHOULD BE DRY,
BUT GIVEN THESE TRENDS I DID INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH LIGHT, SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS, ISOLATED
CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY,
BUT OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AFTER 06Z PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK, AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. TOMORROW WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 05-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE 18-02Z TIME FRAME. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. IFR IN BR/FG ALSO POSSIBLE
AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS
WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/MV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 280443
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1243 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1243 AM EDT TUESDAY...JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL FOR BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW YORK AND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT. SHOULD LAST ANOTHER 3 TO 4 HOURS AS WELL
DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF QUEBEC AND KEEPS
THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT GOING TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR TUESDAY WE WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE FORCING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE UPPER 80S AND NEAR 90 IN SOME SPOTS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...BUT ON TUESDAY THE STORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED MORE OVER EASTERN VERMONT. FEEL THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY AND
YESTERDAY...MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.
SOME DECENT LAPSE RATES...CAPE AND JET DYNAMICS LEAD TO INCREASING
CONFIDENCE FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BE STRONG TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN FEEL THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIE DOWN AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ON WEDNESDAY WILL FINALLY
HAVE SOME INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY. TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BOTH BE WARM WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM EDT MONDAY...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A
SURFACE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS. AS EXPECTED, GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THIS MORNINGS
ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET OUTPUT. WITH FAVORABLE TIMING AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY/SHEAR, POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS
STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

BEHIND THURSDAY`S FRONT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED, BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME EVIDENCE THAT A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM SATURDAY ONWARD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR TROUGH BEGINS TO
REORGANIZE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE
SOUTHERLY AND ROBUST OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE, THOUGH SOME OF THE
OTHER MEDIUM RANGE OUTPUT HAS TRENDED IN ITS DIRECTION. THUS I`M
STILL EXPECTING THAT MOST OF THE SAT-MON TIME FRAME SHOULD BE DRY,
BUT GIVEN THESE TRENDS I DID INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH LIGHT, SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS, ISOLATED
CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY,
BUT OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AFTER 06Z PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK, AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. TOMORROW WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 05-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE 18-02Z TIME FRAME. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. IFR IN BR/FG ALSO POSSIBLE
AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS
WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/MV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 280252
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1052 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1042 PM EDT MONDAY...AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN TIER
OF ZONES AT THIS TIME. THIS ACTIVITY SUPPORTED BY WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WHICH WILL TRACKING JUST NORTH OF AREA OVER NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. A FEW MARGINALLY STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE...AND WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.3 TO 1.4 INCHES...THERE IS ALSO
POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE RAISED POPS...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ONGOING ACTIVITY. WITH
FLOW TURNING MORE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS LATER ON...EVEN AFTER PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE. STILL EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT WITH
MIN TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR TUESDAY WE WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE FORCING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE UPPER 80S AND NEAR 90 IN SOME SPOTS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...BUT ON TUESDAY THE STORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED MORE OVER EASTERN VERMONT. FEEL THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY AND
YESTERDAY...MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.
SOME DECENT LAPSE RATES...CAPE AND JET DYNAMICS LEAD TO INCREASING
CONFIDENCE FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BE STRONG TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN FEEL THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIE DOWN AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ON WEDNESDAY WILL FINALLY
HAVE SOME INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY. TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BOTH BE WARM WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM EDT MONDAY...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A
SURFACE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS. AS EXPECTED, GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THIS MORNINGS
ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET OUTPUT. WITH FAVORABLE TIMING AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY/SHEAR, POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS
STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

BEHIND THURSDAY`S FRONT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED, BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME EVIDENCE THAT A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM SATURDAY ONWARD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR TROUGH BEGINS TO
REORGANIZE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE
SOUTHERLY AND ROBUST OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE, THOUGH SOME OF THE
OTHER MEDIUM RANGE OUTPUT HAS TRENDED IN ITS DIRECTION. THUS I`M
STILL EXPECTING THAT MOST OF THE SAT-MON TIME FRAME SHOULD BE DRY,
BUT GIVEN THESE TRENDS I DID INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH LIGHT, SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS, ISOLATED
CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY,
BUT OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AFTER 06Z PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK, AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. TOMORROW WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 05-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE 18-02Z TIME FRAME. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. IFR IN BR/FG ALSO POSSIBLE
AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS
WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 280252
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1052 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1042 PM EDT MONDAY...AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN TIER
OF ZONES AT THIS TIME. THIS ACTIVITY SUPPORTED BY WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WHICH WILL TRACKING JUST NORTH OF AREA OVER NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. A FEW MARGINALLY STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE...AND WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.3 TO 1.4 INCHES...THERE IS ALSO
POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE RAISED POPS...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ONGOING ACTIVITY. WITH
FLOW TURNING MORE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS LATER ON...EVEN AFTER PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE. STILL EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT WITH
MIN TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR TUESDAY WE WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE FORCING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE UPPER 80S AND NEAR 90 IN SOME SPOTS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...BUT ON TUESDAY THE STORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED MORE OVER EASTERN VERMONT. FEEL THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY AND
YESTERDAY...MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.
SOME DECENT LAPSE RATES...CAPE AND JET DYNAMICS LEAD TO INCREASING
CONFIDENCE FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BE STRONG TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN FEEL THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIE DOWN AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ON WEDNESDAY WILL FINALLY
HAVE SOME INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY. TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BOTH BE WARM WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM EDT MONDAY...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A
SURFACE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS. AS EXPECTED, GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THIS MORNINGS
ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET OUTPUT. WITH FAVORABLE TIMING AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY/SHEAR, POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS
STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

BEHIND THURSDAY`S FRONT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED, BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME EVIDENCE THAT A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM SATURDAY ONWARD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR TROUGH BEGINS TO
REORGANIZE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE
SOUTHERLY AND ROBUST OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE, THOUGH SOME OF THE
OTHER MEDIUM RANGE OUTPUT HAS TRENDED IN ITS DIRECTION. THUS I`M
STILL EXPECTING THAT MOST OF THE SAT-MON TIME FRAME SHOULD BE DRY,
BUT GIVEN THESE TRENDS I DID INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH LIGHT, SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS, ISOLATED
CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY,
BUT OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AFTER 06Z PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK, AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. TOMORROW WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 05-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE 18-02Z TIME FRAME. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. IFR IN BR/FG ALSO POSSIBLE
AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS
WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 280252
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1052 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1042 PM EDT MONDAY...AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN TIER
OF ZONES AT THIS TIME. THIS ACTIVITY SUPPORTED BY WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WHICH WILL TRACKING JUST NORTH OF AREA OVER NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. A FEW MARGINALLY STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE...AND WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.3 TO 1.4 INCHES...THERE IS ALSO
POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE RAISED POPS...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ONGOING ACTIVITY. WITH
FLOW TURNING MORE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS LATER ON...EVEN AFTER PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE. STILL EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT WITH
MIN TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR TUESDAY WE WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE FORCING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE UPPER 80S AND NEAR 90 IN SOME SPOTS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...BUT ON TUESDAY THE STORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED MORE OVER EASTERN VERMONT. FEEL THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY AND
YESTERDAY...MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.
SOME DECENT LAPSE RATES...CAPE AND JET DYNAMICS LEAD TO INCREASING
CONFIDENCE FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BE STRONG TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN FEEL THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIE DOWN AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ON WEDNESDAY WILL FINALLY
HAVE SOME INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY. TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BOTH BE WARM WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM EDT MONDAY...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A
SURFACE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS. AS EXPECTED, GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THIS MORNINGS
ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET OUTPUT. WITH FAVORABLE TIMING AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY/SHEAR, POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS
STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

BEHIND THURSDAY`S FRONT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED, BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME EVIDENCE THAT A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM SATURDAY ONWARD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR TROUGH BEGINS TO
REORGANIZE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE
SOUTHERLY AND ROBUST OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE, THOUGH SOME OF THE
OTHER MEDIUM RANGE OUTPUT HAS TRENDED IN ITS DIRECTION. THUS I`M
STILL EXPECTING THAT MOST OF THE SAT-MON TIME FRAME SHOULD BE DRY,
BUT GIVEN THESE TRENDS I DID INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH LIGHT, SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS, ISOLATED
CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY,
BUT OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AFTER 06Z PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK, AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. TOMORROW WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 05-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE 18-02Z TIME FRAME. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. IFR IN BR/FG ALSO POSSIBLE
AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS
WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 280252
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1052 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1042 PM EDT MONDAY...AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN TIER
OF ZONES AT THIS TIME. THIS ACTIVITY SUPPORTED BY WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WHICH WILL TRACKING JUST NORTH OF AREA OVER NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. A FEW MARGINALLY STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE...AND WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.3 TO 1.4 INCHES...THERE IS ALSO
POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE RAISED POPS...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ONGOING ACTIVITY. WITH
FLOW TURNING MORE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS LATER ON...EVEN AFTER PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE. STILL EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT WITH
MIN TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR TUESDAY WE WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE FORCING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE UPPER 80S AND NEAR 90 IN SOME SPOTS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...BUT ON TUESDAY THE STORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED MORE OVER EASTERN VERMONT. FEEL THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY AND
YESTERDAY...MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.
SOME DECENT LAPSE RATES...CAPE AND JET DYNAMICS LEAD TO INCREASING
CONFIDENCE FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BE STRONG TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN FEEL THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIE DOWN AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ON WEDNESDAY WILL FINALLY
HAVE SOME INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY. TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BOTH BE WARM WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM EDT MONDAY...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A
SURFACE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS. AS EXPECTED, GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THIS MORNINGS
ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET OUTPUT. WITH FAVORABLE TIMING AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY/SHEAR, POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS
STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

BEHIND THURSDAY`S FRONT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED, BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME EVIDENCE THAT A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM SATURDAY ONWARD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR TROUGH BEGINS TO
REORGANIZE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE
SOUTHERLY AND ROBUST OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE, THOUGH SOME OF THE
OTHER MEDIUM RANGE OUTPUT HAS TRENDED IN ITS DIRECTION. THUS I`M
STILL EXPECTING THAT MOST OF THE SAT-MON TIME FRAME SHOULD BE DRY,
BUT GIVEN THESE TRENDS I DID INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH LIGHT, SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS, ISOLATED
CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY,
BUT OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AFTER 06Z PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK, AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. TOMORROW WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 05-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE 18-02Z TIME FRAME. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. IFR IN BR/FG ALSO POSSIBLE
AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS
WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/MV




000
FXUS61 KALY 280231
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1025 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...ALL WAS QUIET ON OUR RADARS...NO CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THERE WERE STILL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO OUR
NORTH...AND THESE WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...ASSOCIATED WITH
A BOUNDARY LOCATED IN THAT VICINITY.

WE SHOULD BE LEFT WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY AND RATHER MILD MUGGY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WERE STILL GENERALLY WELL INTO THE 70S (80 AT ALBANY)
WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

FOR THIS UPDATE...DID RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN SOME CASES 2-3
DEGREES...MAINLY IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION. OTHERWISE...VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY CHANGE...AND WE DO EXPECT PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT IN
THE COOLER VALLEYS...AND NEAR AREAS OF WATER.

OTHERWISE IT SHOULD REMAIN TRANQUIL WITH LITTLE OR NO WIND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HEAT WILL BE THE STORY THIS WEEK.

A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THERE WILL
BE LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH SOME 50S
TONIGHT IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS. ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LOWS MAY NOT GO BELOW 70 IN THE NORMALLY WARMER
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ROUNDING OUT THE MONTH OF JULY AND HEADING INTO AUGUST...THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM...BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND AGAIN HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW
STRONG THE STORMS WILL BE AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY...BUT SHEAR AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MARGINAL AT
BEST. REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW CELLS THAT COULD BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE...WITH HEAVY RAIN ALSO BEING A THREAT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A NICE...BUT WARM DAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOWER
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE
50S...ARE USHERED INTO THE REGION WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...AS PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATE THROUGH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT.
THESE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOOKS TO OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/HIGH PEAKS OF
SOUTHERN VERMONT...TO MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION...WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS IN THE MID-
HUDSON VALLEY REACHING 90. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO IFR FOG/CIGS
AT KGFL AND KPSF...BUT ONLY TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU AND KALB.

WE BEGIN TEMPOS FOR IFR FOG BY 05Z AT KGFL AND 04Z AT KPSF BASED ON
WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT (PERSISTENCE). THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE
LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND WE ARE FORECASTING VALUES AOB
THESE VALUES AT ALL THE TAFS.

THE FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY 12Z...AND BE COMPLETELY GONE BY
BEFORE 13Z. AFTER THAT WE LOOK TO HAVE A MOSTLY SUNNY WARM VFR DAY
WITH SCT CU BASES IN THE 4000-5000 FOOT RANGE (OCCASIONALLY GOING
BROKEN AT KPSF AND KGFL).

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MAINLY KGFL AND KSPF
THAT WILL BE TIED INTO A VERY WEAK BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT
OF ANY THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING ANY TAFS WAS LOW ENOUGH (UNDER 25
PERCENT) SO NO MENTION IN THE TAFS (NOT EVEN VCSH) AT THIS POINT.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT...VARIABLE AROUND 5KTS
AT KGFL...VARIABLE TO WESTERLY 5-10KTS AT THE REMAINING TAF
SITES.


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AND FALL TO 40 TO 60
PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS WILL BE BE FROM
THE WEST OR NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/GJM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...SND/GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBTV 280027
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
827 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 739 PM EDT MONDAY...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. INITIAL AREA OF
STORMS WHICH DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON HAS
DIMINISHED IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WHILE MOVING SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD. MORE STORMS NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST. THEY ARE SUPPORTED BY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN FLOW ALOFT...AND MAY AFFECT NORTHERN ZONES
LATER THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP A
BIT...ESPECIALLY NORTH...TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS TO REFLECT
LATEST CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD
TONIGHT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND WEAKENING AS THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS WITH SUNSET. SOME SORT OF WEAK SURFACE TROF
APPEARS TO BE THE FOCUS FOR THESE STORMS...AND IT WILL BE EAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
PAST NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND HAVE HELD ONTO
MENTION FOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR MOST NORTHEASTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR TUESDAY WE WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE FORCING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE UPPER 80S AND NEAR 90 IN SOME SPOTS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...BUT ON TUESDAY THE STORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED MORE OVER EASTERN VERMONT. FEEL THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY AND
YESTERDAY...MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.
SOME DECENT LAPSE RATES...CAPE AND JET DYNAMICS LEAD TO INCREASING
CONFIDENCE FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BE STRONG TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN FEEL THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIE DOWN AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ON WEDNESDAY WILL FINALLY
HAVE SOME INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY. TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BOTH BE WARM WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM EDT MONDAY...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A
SURFACE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS. AS EXPECTED, GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THIS MORNINGS
ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET OUTPUT. WITH FAVORABLE TIMING AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY/SHEAR, POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS
STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

BEHIND THURSDAY`S FRONT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED, BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME EVIDENCE THAT A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM SATURDAY ONWARD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR TROUGH BEGINS TO
REORGANIZE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE
SOUTHERLY AND ROBUST OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE, THOUGH SOME OF THE
OTHER MEDIUM RANGE OUTPUT HAS TRENDED IN ITS DIRECTION. THUS I`M
STILL EXPECTING THAT MOST OF THE SAT-MON TIME FRAME SHOULD BE DRY,
BUT GIVEN THESE TRENDS I DID INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH LIGHT, SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS, ISOLATED
CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY,
BUT OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AFTER 06Z PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK, AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. TOMORROW WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 05-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE 18-02Z TIME FRAME. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. IFR IN BR/FG ALSO POSSIBLE
AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS
WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...RJS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/MV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 280027
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
827 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 739 PM EDT MONDAY...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. INITIAL AREA OF
STORMS WHICH DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON HAS
DIMINISHED IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WHILE MOVING SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD. MORE STORMS NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST. THEY ARE SUPPORTED BY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN FLOW ALOFT...AND MAY AFFECT NORTHERN ZONES
LATER THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP A
BIT...ESPECIALLY NORTH...TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS TO REFLECT
LATEST CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD
TONIGHT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND WEAKENING AS THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS WITH SUNSET. SOME SORT OF WEAK SURFACE TROF
APPEARS TO BE THE FOCUS FOR THESE STORMS...AND IT WILL BE EAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
PAST NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND HAVE HELD ONTO
MENTION FOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR MOST NORTHEASTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR TUESDAY WE WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE FORCING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE UPPER 80S AND NEAR 90 IN SOME SPOTS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...BUT ON TUESDAY THE STORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED MORE OVER EASTERN VERMONT. FEEL THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY AND
YESTERDAY...MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.
SOME DECENT LAPSE RATES...CAPE AND JET DYNAMICS LEAD TO INCREASING
CONFIDENCE FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BE STRONG TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN FEEL THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIE DOWN AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ON WEDNESDAY WILL FINALLY
HAVE SOME INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY. TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BOTH BE WARM WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM EDT MONDAY...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A
SURFACE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS. AS EXPECTED, GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THIS MORNINGS
ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET OUTPUT. WITH FAVORABLE TIMING AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY/SHEAR, POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS
STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

BEHIND THURSDAY`S FRONT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED, BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME EVIDENCE THAT A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM SATURDAY ONWARD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR TROUGH BEGINS TO
REORGANIZE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE
SOUTHERLY AND ROBUST OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE, THOUGH SOME OF THE
OTHER MEDIUM RANGE OUTPUT HAS TRENDED IN ITS DIRECTION. THUS I`M
STILL EXPECTING THAT MOST OF THE SAT-MON TIME FRAME SHOULD BE DRY,
BUT GIVEN THESE TRENDS I DID INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH LIGHT, SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS, ISOLATED
CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY,
BUT OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AFTER 06Z PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK, AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. TOMORROW WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 05-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE 18-02Z TIME FRAME. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. IFR IN BR/FG ALSO POSSIBLE
AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS
WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...RJS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 280027
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
827 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 739 PM EDT MONDAY...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. INITIAL AREA OF
STORMS WHICH DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON HAS
DIMINISHED IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WHILE MOVING SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD. MORE STORMS NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST. THEY ARE SUPPORTED BY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN FLOW ALOFT...AND MAY AFFECT NORTHERN ZONES
LATER THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP A
BIT...ESPECIALLY NORTH...TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS TO REFLECT
LATEST CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD
TONIGHT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND WEAKENING AS THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS WITH SUNSET. SOME SORT OF WEAK SURFACE TROF
APPEARS TO BE THE FOCUS FOR THESE STORMS...AND IT WILL BE EAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
PAST NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND HAVE HELD ONTO
MENTION FOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR MOST NORTHEASTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR TUESDAY WE WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE FORCING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE UPPER 80S AND NEAR 90 IN SOME SPOTS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...BUT ON TUESDAY THE STORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED MORE OVER EASTERN VERMONT. FEEL THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY AND
YESTERDAY...MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.
SOME DECENT LAPSE RATES...CAPE AND JET DYNAMICS LEAD TO INCREASING
CONFIDENCE FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BE STRONG TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN FEEL THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIE DOWN AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ON WEDNESDAY WILL FINALLY
HAVE SOME INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY. TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BOTH BE WARM WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM EDT MONDAY...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A
SURFACE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS. AS EXPECTED, GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THIS MORNINGS
ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET OUTPUT. WITH FAVORABLE TIMING AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY/SHEAR, POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS
STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

BEHIND THURSDAY`S FRONT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED, BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME EVIDENCE THAT A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM SATURDAY ONWARD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR TROUGH BEGINS TO
REORGANIZE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE
SOUTHERLY AND ROBUST OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE, THOUGH SOME OF THE
OTHER MEDIUM RANGE OUTPUT HAS TRENDED IN ITS DIRECTION. THUS I`M
STILL EXPECTING THAT MOST OF THE SAT-MON TIME FRAME SHOULD BE DRY,
BUT GIVEN THESE TRENDS I DID INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH LIGHT, SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS, ISOLATED
CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY,
BUT OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AFTER 06Z PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK, AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. TOMORROW WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 05-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE 18-02Z TIME FRAME. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. IFR IN BR/FG ALSO POSSIBLE
AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS
WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...RJS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/MV



000
FXUS61 KBTV 280027
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
827 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 739 PM EDT MONDAY...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. INITIAL AREA OF
STORMS WHICH DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON HAS
DIMINISHED IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WHILE MOVING SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD. MORE STORMS NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST. THEY ARE SUPPORTED BY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN FLOW ALOFT...AND MAY AFFECT NORTHERN ZONES
LATER THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP A
BIT...ESPECIALLY NORTH...TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS TO REFLECT
LATEST CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD
TONIGHT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND WEAKENING AS THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS WITH SUNSET. SOME SORT OF WEAK SURFACE TROF
APPEARS TO BE THE FOCUS FOR THESE STORMS...AND IT WILL BE EAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
PAST NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND HAVE HELD ONTO
MENTION FOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR MOST NORTHEASTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR TUESDAY WE WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE FORCING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE UPPER 80S AND NEAR 90 IN SOME SPOTS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...BUT ON TUESDAY THE STORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED MORE OVER EASTERN VERMONT. FEEL THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY AND
YESTERDAY...MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.
SOME DECENT LAPSE RATES...CAPE AND JET DYNAMICS LEAD TO INCREASING
CONFIDENCE FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BE STRONG TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN FEEL THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIE DOWN AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ON WEDNESDAY WILL FINALLY
HAVE SOME INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY. TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BOTH BE WARM WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM EDT MONDAY...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A
SURFACE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS. AS EXPECTED, GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THIS MORNINGS
ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET OUTPUT. WITH FAVORABLE TIMING AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY/SHEAR, POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS
STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

BEHIND THURSDAY`S FRONT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED, BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME EVIDENCE THAT A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM SATURDAY ONWARD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR TROUGH BEGINS TO
REORGANIZE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE
SOUTHERLY AND ROBUST OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE, THOUGH SOME OF THE
OTHER MEDIUM RANGE OUTPUT HAS TRENDED IN ITS DIRECTION. THUS I`M
STILL EXPECTING THAT MOST OF THE SAT-MON TIME FRAME SHOULD BE DRY,
BUT GIVEN THESE TRENDS I DID INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH LIGHT, SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS, ISOLATED
CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY,
BUT OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AFTER 06Z PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK, AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. TOMORROW WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 05-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE 18-02Z TIME FRAME. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. IFR IN BR/FG ALSO POSSIBLE
AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS
WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...RJS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/MV




000
FXUS61 KALY 280008
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
756 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OR
LEAST WEAKENED INTO ISOLATED SHOWERS. WITH CONTINUING RISING HEIGHTS
OVERNIGHT AND ANY UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES LIKELY RIDING NORTH ALONG
THE RIDGE (RIDGE ROLLERS) WILL CONTINUE WITH POPS UNDER 15 PERCENT
FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

SO WITH THIS UPDATE...REMOVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER.

OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT. WE STILL THINK PATCHY OR
AREAS OF FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE ANOTHER MUGGY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...LOWER TO MID 60S MOST OTHER PLACES.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HEAT WILL BE THE STORY THIS WEEK.

A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THERE WILL
BE LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH SOME 50S
TONIGHT IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS. ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LOWS MAY NOT GO BELOW 70 IN THE NORMALLY WARMER
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ROUNDING OUT THE MONTH OF JULY AND HEADING INTO AUGUST...THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM...BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND AGAIN HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW
STRONG THE STORMS WILL BE AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY...BUT SHEAR AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MARGINAL AT
BEST. REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW CELLS THAT COULD BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE...WITH HEAVY RAIN ALSO BEING A THREAT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A NICE...BUT WARM DAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOWER
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE
50S...ARE USHERED INTO THE REGION WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...AS PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATE THROUGH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT.
THESE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOOKS TO OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/HIGH PEAKS OF
SOUTHERN VERMONT...TO MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION...WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS IN THE MID-
HUDSON VALLEY REACHING 90. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO IFR FOG/CIGS
AT KGFL AND KPSF...BUT ONLY TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU AND KALB.

WE BEGIN TEMPOS FOR IFR FOG BY 05Z AT KGFL AND 04Z AT KPSF BASED ON
WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT (PERSISTENCE). THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE
LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND WE ARE FORECASTING VALUES AOB
THESE VALUES AT ALL THE TAFS.

THE FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY 12Z...AND BE COMPLETELY GONE BY
BEFORE 13Z. AFTER THAT WE LOOK TO HAVE A MOSTLY SUNNY WARM VFR DAY
WITH SCT CU BASES IN THE 4000-5000 FOOT RANGE (OCCASIONALLY GOING
BROKEN AT KPSF AND KGFL).

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MAINLY KGFL AND KSPF
THAT WILL BE TIED INTO A VERY WEAK BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT
OF ANY THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING ANY TAFS WAS LOW ENOUGH (UNDER 25
PERCENT) SO NO MENTION IN THE TAFS (NOT EVEN VCSH) AT THIS POINT.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT...VARIABLE AROUND 5KTS
AT KGFL...VARIABLE TO WESTERLY 5-10KTS AT THE REMAINING TAF
SITES.


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AND FALL TO 40 TO 60
PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS WILL BE BE FROM
THE WEST OR NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/GJM
NEAR TERM...SND/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...SND/GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 280008
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
756 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OR
LEAST WEAKENED INTO ISOLATED SHOWERS. WITH CONTINUING RISING HEIGHTS
OVERNIGHT AND ANY UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES LIKELY RIDING NORTH ALONG
THE RIDGE (RIDGE ROLLERS) WILL CONTINUE WITH POPS UNDER 15 PERCENT
FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

SO WITH THIS UPDATE...REMOVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER.

OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT. WE STILL THINK PATCHY OR
AREAS OF FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE ANOTHER MUGGY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...LOWER TO MID 60S MOST OTHER PLACES.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HEAT WILL BE THE STORY THIS WEEK.

A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THERE WILL
BE LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH SOME 50S
TONIGHT IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS. ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LOWS MAY NOT GO BELOW 70 IN THE NORMALLY WARMER
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ROUNDING OUT THE MONTH OF JULY AND HEADING INTO AUGUST...THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM...BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND AGAIN HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW
STRONG THE STORMS WILL BE AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY...BUT SHEAR AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MARGINAL AT
BEST. REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW CELLS THAT COULD BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE...WITH HEAVY RAIN ALSO BEING A THREAT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A NICE...BUT WARM DAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOWER
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE
50S...ARE USHERED INTO THE REGION WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...AS PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATE THROUGH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT.
THESE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOOKS TO OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/HIGH PEAKS OF
SOUTHERN VERMONT...TO MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION...WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS IN THE MID-
HUDSON VALLEY REACHING 90. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO IFR FOG/CIGS
AT KGFL AND KPSF...BUT ONLY TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU AND KALB.

WE BEGIN TEMPOS FOR IFR FOG BY 05Z AT KGFL AND 04Z AT KPSF BASED ON
WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT (PERSISTENCE). THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE
LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND WE ARE FORECASTING VALUES AOB
THESE VALUES AT ALL THE TAFS.

THE FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY 12Z...AND BE COMPLETELY GONE BY
BEFORE 13Z. AFTER THAT WE LOOK TO HAVE A MOSTLY SUNNY WARM VFR DAY
WITH SCT CU BASES IN THE 4000-5000 FOOT RANGE (OCCASIONALLY GOING
BROKEN AT KPSF AND KGFL).

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MAINLY KGFL AND KSPF
THAT WILL BE TIED INTO A VERY WEAK BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT
OF ANY THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING ANY TAFS WAS LOW ENOUGH (UNDER 25
PERCENT) SO NO MENTION IN THE TAFS (NOT EVEN VCSH) AT THIS POINT.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT...VARIABLE AROUND 5KTS
AT KGFL...VARIABLE TO WESTERLY 5-10KTS AT THE REMAINING TAF
SITES.


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AND FALL TO 40 TO 60
PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS WILL BE BE FROM
THE WEST OR NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/GJM
NEAR TERM...SND/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...SND/GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 280008
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
756 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OR
LEAST WEAKENED INTO ISOLATED SHOWERS. WITH CONTINUING RISING HEIGHTS
OVERNIGHT AND ANY UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES LIKELY RIDING NORTH ALONG
THE RIDGE (RIDGE ROLLERS) WILL CONTINUE WITH POPS UNDER 15 PERCENT
FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

SO WITH THIS UPDATE...REMOVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER.

OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT. WE STILL THINK PATCHY OR
AREAS OF FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE ANOTHER MUGGY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...LOWER TO MID 60S MOST OTHER PLACES.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HEAT WILL BE THE STORY THIS WEEK.

A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THERE WILL
BE LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH SOME 50S
TONIGHT IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS. ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LOWS MAY NOT GO BELOW 70 IN THE NORMALLY WARMER
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ROUNDING OUT THE MONTH OF JULY AND HEADING INTO AUGUST...THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM...BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND AGAIN HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW
STRONG THE STORMS WILL BE AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY...BUT SHEAR AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MARGINAL AT
BEST. REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW CELLS THAT COULD BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE...WITH HEAVY RAIN ALSO BEING A THREAT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A NICE...BUT WARM DAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOWER
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE
50S...ARE USHERED INTO THE REGION WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...AS PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATE THROUGH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT.
THESE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOOKS TO OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/HIGH PEAKS OF
SOUTHERN VERMONT...TO MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION...WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS IN THE MID-
HUDSON VALLEY REACHING 90. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO IFR FOG/CIGS
AT KGFL AND KPSF...BUT ONLY TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU AND KALB.

WE BEGIN TEMPOS FOR IFR FOG BY 05Z AT KGFL AND 04Z AT KPSF BASED ON
WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT (PERSISTENCE). THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE
LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND WE ARE FORECASTING VALUES AOB
THESE VALUES AT ALL THE TAFS.

THE FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY 12Z...AND BE COMPLETELY GONE BY
BEFORE 13Z. AFTER THAT WE LOOK TO HAVE A MOSTLY SUNNY WARM VFR DAY
WITH SCT CU BASES IN THE 4000-5000 FOOT RANGE (OCCASIONALLY GOING
BROKEN AT KPSF AND KGFL).

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MAINLY KGFL AND KSPF
THAT WILL BE TIED INTO A VERY WEAK BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT
OF ANY THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING ANY TAFS WAS LOW ENOUGH (UNDER 25
PERCENT) SO NO MENTION IN THE TAFS (NOT EVEN VCSH) AT THIS POINT.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT...VARIABLE AROUND 5KTS
AT KGFL...VARIABLE TO WESTERLY 5-10KTS AT THE REMAINING TAF
SITES.


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AND FALL TO 40 TO 60
PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS WILL BE BE FROM
THE WEST OR NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/GJM
NEAR TERM...SND/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...SND/GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 280008
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
756 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OR
LEAST WEAKENED INTO ISOLATED SHOWERS. WITH CONTINUING RISING HEIGHTS
OVERNIGHT AND ANY UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES LIKELY RIDING NORTH ALONG
THE RIDGE (RIDGE ROLLERS) WILL CONTINUE WITH POPS UNDER 15 PERCENT
FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

SO WITH THIS UPDATE...REMOVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER.

OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT. WE STILL THINK PATCHY OR
AREAS OF FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE ANOTHER MUGGY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...LOWER TO MID 60S MOST OTHER PLACES.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HEAT WILL BE THE STORY THIS WEEK.

A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THERE WILL
BE LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH SOME 50S
TONIGHT IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS. ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LOWS MAY NOT GO BELOW 70 IN THE NORMALLY WARMER
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ROUNDING OUT THE MONTH OF JULY AND HEADING INTO AUGUST...THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM...BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND AGAIN HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW
STRONG THE STORMS WILL BE AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY...BUT SHEAR AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MARGINAL AT
BEST. REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW CELLS THAT COULD BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE...WITH HEAVY RAIN ALSO BEING A THREAT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A NICE...BUT WARM DAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOWER
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE
50S...ARE USHERED INTO THE REGION WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...AS PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATE THROUGH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT.
THESE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOOKS TO OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/HIGH PEAKS OF
SOUTHERN VERMONT...TO MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION...WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS IN THE MID-
HUDSON VALLEY REACHING 90. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO IFR FOG/CIGS
AT KGFL AND KPSF...BUT ONLY TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU AND KALB.

WE BEGIN TEMPOS FOR IFR FOG BY 05Z AT KGFL AND 04Z AT KPSF BASED ON
WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT (PERSISTENCE). THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE
LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND WE ARE FORECASTING VALUES AOB
THESE VALUES AT ALL THE TAFS.

THE FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY 12Z...AND BE COMPLETELY GONE BY
BEFORE 13Z. AFTER THAT WE LOOK TO HAVE A MOSTLY SUNNY WARM VFR DAY
WITH SCT CU BASES IN THE 4000-5000 FOOT RANGE (OCCASIONALLY GOING
BROKEN AT KPSF AND KGFL).

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MAINLY KGFL AND KSPF
THAT WILL BE TIED INTO A VERY WEAK BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT
OF ANY THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING ANY TAFS WAS LOW ENOUGH (UNDER 25
PERCENT) SO NO MENTION IN THE TAFS (NOT EVEN VCSH) AT THIS POINT.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT...VARIABLE AROUND 5KTS
AT KGFL...VARIABLE TO WESTERLY 5-10KTS AT THE REMAINING TAF
SITES.


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AND FALL TO 40 TO 60
PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS WILL BE BE FROM
THE WEST OR NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/GJM
NEAR TERM...SND/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...SND/GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KBTV 272347
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
747 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 739 PM EDT MONDAY...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. INITIAL AREA OF
STORMS WHICH DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON HAS
DIMINISHED IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WHILE MOVING SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD. MORE STORMS NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST. THEY ARE SUPPORTED BY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN FLOW ALOFT...AND MAY AFFECT NORTHERN ZONES
LATER THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP A
BIT...ESPECIALLY NORTH...TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS TO REFLECT
LATEST CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD
TONIGHT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND WEAKENING AS THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS WITH SUNSET. SOME SORT OF WEAK SURFACE TROF
APPEARS TO BE THE FOCUS FOR THESE STORMS...AND IT WILL BE EAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
PAST NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND HAVE HELD ONTO
MENTION FOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR MOST NORTHEASTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR TUESDAY WE WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE FORCING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE UPPER 80S AND NEAR 90 IN SOME SPOTS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...BUT ON TUESDAY THE STORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED MORE OVER EASTERN VERMONT. FEEL THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY AND
YESTERDAY...MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.
SOME DECENT LAPSE RATES...CAPE AND JET DYNAMICS LEAD TO INCREASING
CONFIDENCE FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BE STRONG TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN FEEL THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIE DOWN AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ON WEDNESDAY WILL FINALLY
HAVE SOME INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY. TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BOTH BE WARM WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM EDT MONDAY...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A
SURFACE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS. AS EXPECTED, GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THIS MORNINGS
ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET OUTPUT. WITH FAVORABLE TIMING AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY/SHEAR, POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS
STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

BEHIND THURSDAY`S FRONT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED, BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME EVIDENCE THAT A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM SATURDAY ONWARD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR TROUGH BEGINS TO
REORGANIZE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE
SOUTHERLY AND ROBUST OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE, THOUGH SOME OF THE
OTHER MEDIUM RANGE OUTPUT HAS TRENDED IN ITS DIRECTION. THUS I`M
STILL EXPECTING THAT MOST OF THE SAT-MON TIME FRAME SHOULD BE DRY,
BUT GIVEN THESE TRENDS I DID INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT, MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 10 KTS OR LESS,
HEAVILY GOVERNED BY TERRAIN/LAKE BREEZES AT SELECTED TERMINALS.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING, BUT MOST TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AFTER 00Z VFR
TO CONTINUE UNDER LIGHT WINDS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK,
AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON POTENTIAL OF
SHOWER/ISOLD STORMS DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA LATER TONIGHT,
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME, SO NO MENTION IN
THE FORECAST.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE 18-02Z TIME FRAME. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. IFR IN BR/FG ALSO POSSIBLE
AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS
WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...RJS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 272347
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
747 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 739 PM EDT MONDAY...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. INITIAL AREA OF
STORMS WHICH DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON HAS
DIMINISHED IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WHILE MOVING SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD. MORE STORMS NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST. THEY ARE SUPPORTED BY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN FLOW ALOFT...AND MAY AFFECT NORTHERN ZONES
LATER THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP A
BIT...ESPECIALLY NORTH...TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS TO REFLECT
LATEST CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD
TONIGHT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND WEAKENING AS THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS WITH SUNSET. SOME SORT OF WEAK SURFACE TROF
APPEARS TO BE THE FOCUS FOR THESE STORMS...AND IT WILL BE EAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
PAST NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND HAVE HELD ONTO
MENTION FOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR MOST NORTHEASTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR TUESDAY WE WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE FORCING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE UPPER 80S AND NEAR 90 IN SOME SPOTS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...BUT ON TUESDAY THE STORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED MORE OVER EASTERN VERMONT. FEEL THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY AND
YESTERDAY...MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.
SOME DECENT LAPSE RATES...CAPE AND JET DYNAMICS LEAD TO INCREASING
CONFIDENCE FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BE STRONG TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN FEEL THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIE DOWN AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ON WEDNESDAY WILL FINALLY
HAVE SOME INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY. TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BOTH BE WARM WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM EDT MONDAY...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A
SURFACE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS. AS EXPECTED, GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THIS MORNINGS
ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET OUTPUT. WITH FAVORABLE TIMING AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY/SHEAR, POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS
STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

BEHIND THURSDAY`S FRONT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED, BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME EVIDENCE THAT A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM SATURDAY ONWARD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR TROUGH BEGINS TO
REORGANIZE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE
SOUTHERLY AND ROBUST OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE, THOUGH SOME OF THE
OTHER MEDIUM RANGE OUTPUT HAS TRENDED IN ITS DIRECTION. THUS I`M
STILL EXPECTING THAT MOST OF THE SAT-MON TIME FRAME SHOULD BE DRY,
BUT GIVEN THESE TRENDS I DID INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT, MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 10 KTS OR LESS,
HEAVILY GOVERNED BY TERRAIN/LAKE BREEZES AT SELECTED TERMINALS.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING, BUT MOST TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AFTER 00Z VFR
TO CONTINUE UNDER LIGHT WINDS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK,
AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON POTENTIAL OF
SHOWER/ISOLD STORMS DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA LATER TONIGHT,
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME, SO NO MENTION IN
THE FORECAST.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE 18-02Z TIME FRAME. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. IFR IN BR/FG ALSO POSSIBLE
AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS
WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...RJS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 272347
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
747 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 739 PM EDT MONDAY...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. INITIAL AREA OF
STORMS WHICH DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON HAS
DIMINISHED IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WHILE MOVING SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD. MORE STORMS NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST. THEY ARE SUPPORTED BY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN FLOW ALOFT...AND MAY AFFECT NORTHERN ZONES
LATER THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP A
BIT...ESPECIALLY NORTH...TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS TO REFLECT
LATEST CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD
TONIGHT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND WEAKENING AS THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS WITH SUNSET. SOME SORT OF WEAK SURFACE TROF
APPEARS TO BE THE FOCUS FOR THESE STORMS...AND IT WILL BE EAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
PAST NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND HAVE HELD ONTO
MENTION FOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR MOST NORTHEASTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR TUESDAY WE WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE FORCING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE UPPER 80S AND NEAR 90 IN SOME SPOTS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...BUT ON TUESDAY THE STORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED MORE OVER EASTERN VERMONT. FEEL THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY AND
YESTERDAY...MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.
SOME DECENT LAPSE RATES...CAPE AND JET DYNAMICS LEAD TO INCREASING
CONFIDENCE FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BE STRONG TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN FEEL THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIE DOWN AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ON WEDNESDAY WILL FINALLY
HAVE SOME INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY. TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BOTH BE WARM WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM EDT MONDAY...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A
SURFACE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS. AS EXPECTED, GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THIS MORNINGS
ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET OUTPUT. WITH FAVORABLE TIMING AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY/SHEAR, POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS
STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

BEHIND THURSDAY`S FRONT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED, BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME EVIDENCE THAT A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM SATURDAY ONWARD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR TROUGH BEGINS TO
REORGANIZE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE
SOUTHERLY AND ROBUST OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE, THOUGH SOME OF THE
OTHER MEDIUM RANGE OUTPUT HAS TRENDED IN ITS DIRECTION. THUS I`M
STILL EXPECTING THAT MOST OF THE SAT-MON TIME FRAME SHOULD BE DRY,
BUT GIVEN THESE TRENDS I DID INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT, MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 10 KTS OR LESS,
HEAVILY GOVERNED BY TERRAIN/LAKE BREEZES AT SELECTED TERMINALS.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING, BUT MOST TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AFTER 00Z VFR
TO CONTINUE UNDER LIGHT WINDS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK,
AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON POTENTIAL OF
SHOWER/ISOLD STORMS DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA LATER TONIGHT,
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME, SO NO MENTION IN
THE FORECAST.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE 18-02Z TIME FRAME. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. IFR IN BR/FG ALSO POSSIBLE
AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS
WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...RJS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 272347
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
747 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 739 PM EDT MONDAY...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. INITIAL AREA OF
STORMS WHICH DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON HAS
DIMINISHED IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WHILE MOVING SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD. MORE STORMS NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST. THEY ARE SUPPORTED BY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN FLOW ALOFT...AND MAY AFFECT NORTHERN ZONES
LATER THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP A
BIT...ESPECIALLY NORTH...TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS TO REFLECT
LATEST CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD
TONIGHT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND WEAKENING AS THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS WITH SUNSET. SOME SORT OF WEAK SURFACE TROF
APPEARS TO BE THE FOCUS FOR THESE STORMS...AND IT WILL BE EAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
PAST NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND HAVE HELD ONTO
MENTION FOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR MOST NORTHEASTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR TUESDAY WE WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE FORCING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE UPPER 80S AND NEAR 90 IN SOME SPOTS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...BUT ON TUESDAY THE STORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED MORE OVER EASTERN VERMONT. FEEL THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY AND
YESTERDAY...MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.
SOME DECENT LAPSE RATES...CAPE AND JET DYNAMICS LEAD TO INCREASING
CONFIDENCE FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BE STRONG TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN FEEL THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIE DOWN AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ON WEDNESDAY WILL FINALLY
HAVE SOME INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY. TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BOTH BE WARM WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM EDT MONDAY...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A
SURFACE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS. AS EXPECTED, GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THIS MORNINGS
ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET OUTPUT. WITH FAVORABLE TIMING AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY/SHEAR, POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS
STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

BEHIND THURSDAY`S FRONT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED, BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME EVIDENCE THAT A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM SATURDAY ONWARD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR TROUGH BEGINS TO
REORGANIZE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE
SOUTHERLY AND ROBUST OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE, THOUGH SOME OF THE
OTHER MEDIUM RANGE OUTPUT HAS TRENDED IN ITS DIRECTION. THUS I`M
STILL EXPECTING THAT MOST OF THE SAT-MON TIME FRAME SHOULD BE DRY,
BUT GIVEN THESE TRENDS I DID INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT, MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 10 KTS OR LESS,
HEAVILY GOVERNED BY TERRAIN/LAKE BREEZES AT SELECTED TERMINALS.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING, BUT MOST TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AFTER 00Z VFR
TO CONTINUE UNDER LIGHT WINDS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK,
AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON POTENTIAL OF
SHOWER/ISOLD STORMS DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA LATER TONIGHT,
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME, SO NO MENTION IN
THE FORECAST.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE 18-02Z TIME FRAME. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. IFR IN BR/FG ALSO POSSIBLE
AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS
WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...RJS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 272347
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
747 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 739 PM EDT MONDAY...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. INITIAL AREA OF
STORMS WHICH DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON HAS
DIMINISHED IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WHILE MOVING SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD. MORE STORMS NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST. THEY ARE SUPPORTED BY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN FLOW ALOFT...AND MAY AFFECT NORTHERN ZONES
LATER THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP A
BIT...ESPECIALLY NORTH...TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS TO REFLECT
LATEST CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD
TONIGHT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND WEAKENING AS THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS WITH SUNSET. SOME SORT OF WEAK SURFACE TROF
APPEARS TO BE THE FOCUS FOR THESE STORMS...AND IT WILL BE EAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
PAST NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND HAVE HELD ONTO
MENTION FOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR MOST NORTHEASTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR TUESDAY WE WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE FORCING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE UPPER 80S AND NEAR 90 IN SOME SPOTS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...BUT ON TUESDAY THE STORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED MORE OVER EASTERN VERMONT. FEEL THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY AND
YESTERDAY...MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.
SOME DECENT LAPSE RATES...CAPE AND JET DYNAMICS LEAD TO INCREASING
CONFIDENCE FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BE STRONG TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN FEEL THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIE DOWN AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ON WEDNESDAY WILL FINALLY
HAVE SOME INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY. TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BOTH BE WARM WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM EDT MONDAY...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A
SURFACE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS. AS EXPECTED, GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THIS MORNINGS
ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET OUTPUT. WITH FAVORABLE TIMING AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY/SHEAR, POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS
STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

BEHIND THURSDAY`S FRONT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED, BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME EVIDENCE THAT A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM SATURDAY ONWARD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR TROUGH BEGINS TO
REORGANIZE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE
SOUTHERLY AND ROBUST OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE, THOUGH SOME OF THE
OTHER MEDIUM RANGE OUTPUT HAS TRENDED IN ITS DIRECTION. THUS I`M
STILL EXPECTING THAT MOST OF THE SAT-MON TIME FRAME SHOULD BE DRY,
BUT GIVEN THESE TRENDS I DID INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT, MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 10 KTS OR LESS,
HEAVILY GOVERNED BY TERRAIN/LAKE BREEZES AT SELECTED TERMINALS.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING, BUT MOST TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AFTER 00Z VFR
TO CONTINUE UNDER LIGHT WINDS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK,
AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON POTENTIAL OF
SHOWER/ISOLD STORMS DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA LATER TONIGHT,
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME, SO NO MENTION IN
THE FORECAST.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE 18-02Z TIME FRAME. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. IFR IN BR/FG ALSO POSSIBLE
AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS
WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...RJS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 272347
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
747 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 739 PM EDT MONDAY...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. INITIAL AREA OF
STORMS WHICH DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON HAS
DIMINISHED IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WHILE MOVING SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD. MORE STORMS NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST. THEY ARE SUPPORTED BY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN FLOW ALOFT...AND MAY AFFECT NORTHERN ZONES
LATER THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP A
BIT...ESPECIALLY NORTH...TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS TO REFLECT
LATEST CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD
TONIGHT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND WEAKENING AS THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS WITH SUNSET. SOME SORT OF WEAK SURFACE TROF
APPEARS TO BE THE FOCUS FOR THESE STORMS...AND IT WILL BE EAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
PAST NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND HAVE HELD ONTO
MENTION FOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR MOST NORTHEASTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR TUESDAY WE WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE FORCING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE UPPER 80S AND NEAR 90 IN SOME SPOTS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...BUT ON TUESDAY THE STORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED MORE OVER EASTERN VERMONT. FEEL THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY AND
YESTERDAY...MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.
SOME DECENT LAPSE RATES...CAPE AND JET DYNAMICS LEAD TO INCREASING
CONFIDENCE FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BE STRONG TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN FEEL THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIE DOWN AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ON WEDNESDAY WILL FINALLY
HAVE SOME INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY. TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BOTH BE WARM WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM EDT MONDAY...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A
SURFACE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS. AS EXPECTED, GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THIS MORNINGS
ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET OUTPUT. WITH FAVORABLE TIMING AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY/SHEAR, POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS
STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

BEHIND THURSDAY`S FRONT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED, BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME EVIDENCE THAT A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM SATURDAY ONWARD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR TROUGH BEGINS TO
REORGANIZE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE
SOUTHERLY AND ROBUST OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE, THOUGH SOME OF THE
OTHER MEDIUM RANGE OUTPUT HAS TRENDED IN ITS DIRECTION. THUS I`M
STILL EXPECTING THAT MOST OF THE SAT-MON TIME FRAME SHOULD BE DRY,
BUT GIVEN THESE TRENDS I DID INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT, MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 10 KTS OR LESS,
HEAVILY GOVERNED BY TERRAIN/LAKE BREEZES AT SELECTED TERMINALS.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING, BUT MOST TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AFTER 00Z VFR
TO CONTINUE UNDER LIGHT WINDS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK,
AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON POTENTIAL OF
SHOWER/ISOLD STORMS DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA LATER TONIGHT,
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME, SO NO MENTION IN
THE FORECAST.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE 18-02Z TIME FRAME. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. IFR IN BR/FG ALSO POSSIBLE
AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS
WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...RJS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG



000
FXUS61 KALY 272034
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
434 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 434 PM...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...CENTRAL BERKSHIRE COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY
CONNECTICUT AND FAR SOUTHERN WINDHAM COUNTY IN VERMONT. CELL
MOVEMENT HAS GENERALLY BEEN TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 MPH.

TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 70S WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN TO THE UPPER
80S IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS. SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET AND THEN THEY
SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. LATEST HRRR HAS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
OVER BY 01Z WITH THE LAST ECHO DISSIPATING BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HEAT WILL BE THE STORY THIS WEEK.

A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THERE WILL
BE LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH SOME 50S
TONIGHT IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS. ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LOWS MAY NOT GO BELOW 70 IN THE NORMALLY WARMER
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ROUNDING OUT THE MONTH OF JULY AND HEADING INTO AUGUST...THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM...BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND AGAIN HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW
STRONG THE STORMS WILL BE AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY...BUT SHEAR AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MARGINAL AT
BEST. REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW CELLS THAT COULD BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE...WITH HEAVY RAIN ALSO BEING A THREAT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A NICE...BUT WARM DAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOWER
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE
50S...ARE USHERED INTO THE REGION WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...AS PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATE THROUGH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT.
THESE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOOKS TO OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/HIGH PEAKS OF
SOUTHERN VERMONT...TO MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION...WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS IN THE MID-
HUDSON VALLEY REACHING 90. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
AROUND HIGHER TERRAIN BUT AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE STAYING AWAY FROM
THE TAF SITES.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOW MOVING...SO
UNLESS ONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPS VERY CLOSE TO A TAF
SITE...THE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  ACKNOWLEDGING A VCSH FOR KPSF AND KPOU WHERE THERE IS A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEARBY THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WILL END AFTER
SUNSET AND WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AND LIGHT WINDS...SOME FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS COULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.  INDICATING IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT KPSF AND KGFL...WITH MVFR AT KPOU AND
KALB. AFTER 13Z-14Z...RETURN TO VFR.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH TO WEST AT 6 KT OR LESS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN NEAR CALM TONIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 6 KT PR LESS
TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AND FALL TO 40 TO 60
PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS WILL BE BE FROM
THE WEST OR NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/GJM
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND/GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 272034
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
434 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 434 PM...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...CENTRAL BERKSHIRE COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY
CONNECTICUT AND FAR SOUTHERN WINDHAM COUNTY IN VERMONT. CELL
MOVEMENT HAS GENERALLY BEEN TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 MPH.

TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 70S WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN TO THE UPPER
80S IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS. SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET AND THEN THEY
SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. LATEST HRRR HAS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
OVER BY 01Z WITH THE LAST ECHO DISSIPATING BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HEAT WILL BE THE STORY THIS WEEK.

A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THERE WILL
BE LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH SOME 50S
TONIGHT IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS. ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LOWS MAY NOT GO BELOW 70 IN THE NORMALLY WARMER
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ROUNDING OUT THE MONTH OF JULY AND HEADING INTO AUGUST...THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM...BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND AGAIN HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW
STRONG THE STORMS WILL BE AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY...BUT SHEAR AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MARGINAL AT
BEST. REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW CELLS THAT COULD BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE...WITH HEAVY RAIN ALSO BEING A THREAT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A NICE...BUT WARM DAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOWER
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE
50S...ARE USHERED INTO THE REGION WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...AS PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATE THROUGH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT.
THESE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOOKS TO OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/HIGH PEAKS OF
SOUTHERN VERMONT...TO MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION...WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS IN THE MID-
HUDSON VALLEY REACHING 90. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
AROUND HIGHER TERRAIN BUT AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE STAYING AWAY FROM
THE TAF SITES.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOW MOVING...SO
UNLESS ONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPS VERY CLOSE TO A TAF
SITE...THE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  ACKNOWLEDGING A VCSH FOR KPSF AND KPOU WHERE THERE IS A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEARBY THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WILL END AFTER
SUNSET AND WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AND LIGHT WINDS...SOME FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS COULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.  INDICATING IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT KPSF AND KGFL...WITH MVFR AT KPOU AND
KALB. AFTER 13Z-14Z...RETURN TO VFR.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH TO WEST AT 6 KT OR LESS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN NEAR CALM TONIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 6 KT PR LESS
TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AND FALL TO 40 TO 60
PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS WILL BE BE FROM
THE WEST OR NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/GJM
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND/GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 272034
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
434 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 434 PM...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...CENTRAL BERKSHIRE COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY
CONNECTICUT AND FAR SOUTHERN WINDHAM COUNTY IN VERMONT. CELL
MOVEMENT HAS GENERALLY BEEN TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 MPH.

TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 70S WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN TO THE UPPER
80S IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS. SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET AND THEN THEY
SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. LATEST HRRR HAS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
OVER BY 01Z WITH THE LAST ECHO DISSIPATING BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HEAT WILL BE THE STORY THIS WEEK.

A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THERE WILL
BE LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH SOME 50S
TONIGHT IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS. ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LOWS MAY NOT GO BELOW 70 IN THE NORMALLY WARMER
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ROUNDING OUT THE MONTH OF JULY AND HEADING INTO AUGUST...THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM...BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND AGAIN HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW
STRONG THE STORMS WILL BE AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY...BUT SHEAR AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MARGINAL AT
BEST. REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW CELLS THAT COULD BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE...WITH HEAVY RAIN ALSO BEING A THREAT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A NICE...BUT WARM DAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOWER
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE
50S...ARE USHERED INTO THE REGION WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...AS PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATE THROUGH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT.
THESE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOOKS TO OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/HIGH PEAKS OF
SOUTHERN VERMONT...TO MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION...WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS IN THE MID-
HUDSON VALLEY REACHING 90. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
AROUND HIGHER TERRAIN BUT AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE STAYING AWAY FROM
THE TAF SITES.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOW MOVING...SO
UNLESS ONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPS VERY CLOSE TO A TAF
SITE...THE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  ACKNOWLEDGING A VCSH FOR KPSF AND KPOU WHERE THERE IS A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEARBY THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WILL END AFTER
SUNSET AND WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AND LIGHT WINDS...SOME FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS COULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.  INDICATING IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT KPSF AND KGFL...WITH MVFR AT KPOU AND
KALB. AFTER 13Z-14Z...RETURN TO VFR.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH TO WEST AT 6 KT OR LESS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN NEAR CALM TONIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 6 KT PR LESS
TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AND FALL TO 40 TO 60
PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS WILL BE BE FROM
THE WEST OR NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/GJM
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND/GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 272034
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
434 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 434 PM...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...CENTRAL BERKSHIRE COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY
CONNECTICUT AND FAR SOUTHERN WINDHAM COUNTY IN VERMONT. CELL
MOVEMENT HAS GENERALLY BEEN TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 MPH.

TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 70S WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN TO THE UPPER
80S IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS. SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET AND THEN THEY
SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. LATEST HRRR HAS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
OVER BY 01Z WITH THE LAST ECHO DISSIPATING BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HEAT WILL BE THE STORY THIS WEEK.

A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THERE WILL
BE LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH SOME 50S
TONIGHT IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS. ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LOWS MAY NOT GO BELOW 70 IN THE NORMALLY WARMER
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ROUNDING OUT THE MONTH OF JULY AND HEADING INTO AUGUST...THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM...BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND AGAIN HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW
STRONG THE STORMS WILL BE AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY...BUT SHEAR AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MARGINAL AT
BEST. REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW CELLS THAT COULD BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE...WITH HEAVY RAIN ALSO BEING A THREAT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A NICE...BUT WARM DAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOWER
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE
50S...ARE USHERED INTO THE REGION WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...AS PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATE THROUGH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT.
THESE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOOKS TO OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/HIGH PEAKS OF
SOUTHERN VERMONT...TO MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION...WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS IN THE MID-
HUDSON VALLEY REACHING 90. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
AROUND HIGHER TERRAIN BUT AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE STAYING AWAY FROM
THE TAF SITES.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOW MOVING...SO
UNLESS ONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPS VERY CLOSE TO A TAF
SITE...THE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  ACKNOWLEDGING A VCSH FOR KPSF AND KPOU WHERE THERE IS A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEARBY THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WILL END AFTER
SUNSET AND WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AND LIGHT WINDS...SOME FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS COULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.  INDICATING IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT KPSF AND KGFL...WITH MVFR AT KPOU AND
KALB. AFTER 13Z-14Z...RETURN TO VFR.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH TO WEST AT 6 KT OR LESS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN NEAR CALM TONIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 6 KT PR LESS
TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AND FALL TO 40 TO 60
PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS WILL BE BE FROM
THE WEST OR NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/GJM
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND/GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBTV 272013
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
413 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT MONDAY...AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD TONIGHT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND
WEAKENING AS THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS WITH SUNSET. SOME
SORT OF WEAK SURFACE TROF APPEARS TO BE THE FOCUS FOR THESE
STORMS...AND IT WILL BE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PAST NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND HAVE HELD ONTO MENTION FOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
OUR MOST NORTHEASTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR TUESDAY WE WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE FORCING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE UPPER 80S AND NEAR 90 IN SOME SPOTS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...BUT ON TUESDAY THE STORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED MORE OVER EASTERN VERMONT. FEEL THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY AND
YESTERDAY...MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.
SOME DECENT LAPSE RATES...CAPE AND JET DYNAMICS LEAD TO INCREASING
CONFIDENCE FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BE STRONG TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN FEEL THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIE DOWN AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ON WEDNESDAY WILL FINALLY
HAVE SOME INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY. TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BOTH BE WARM WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM EDT MONDAY...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A
SURFACE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS. AS EXPECTED, GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THIS MORNINGS
ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET OUTPUT. WITH FAVORABLE TIMING AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY/SHEAR, POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS
STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

BEHIND THURSDAY`S FRONT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED, BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME EVIDENCE THAT A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM SATURDAY ONWARD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR TROUGH BEGINS TO
REORGANIZE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE
SOUTHERLY AND ROBUST OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE, THOUGH SOME OF THE
OTHER MEDIUM RANGE OUTPUT HAS TRENDED IN ITS DIRECTION. THUS I`M
STILL EXPECTING THAT MOST OF THE SAT-MON TIME FRAME SHOULD BE DRY,
BUT GIVEN THESE TRENDS I DID INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT, MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 10 KTS OR LESS,
HEAVILY GOVERNED BY TERRAIN/LAKE BREEZES AT SELECTED TERMINALS.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING, BUT MOST TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AFTER 00Z VFR
TO CONTINUE UNDER LIGHT WINDS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK,
AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON POTENTIAL OF
SHOWER/ISOLD STORMS DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA LATER TONIGHT,
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME, SO NO MENTION IN
THE FORECAST.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE 18-02Z TIME FRAME. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. IFR IN BR/FG ALSO POSSIBLE
AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS
WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 272013
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
413 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT MONDAY...AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD TONIGHT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND
WEAKENING AS THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS WITH SUNSET. SOME
SORT OF WEAK SURFACE TROF APPEARS TO BE THE FOCUS FOR THESE
STORMS...AND IT WILL BE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PAST NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND HAVE HELD ONTO MENTION FOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
OUR MOST NORTHEASTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR TUESDAY WE WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE FORCING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE UPPER 80S AND NEAR 90 IN SOME SPOTS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...BUT ON TUESDAY THE STORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED MORE OVER EASTERN VERMONT. FEEL THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY AND
YESTERDAY...MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.
SOME DECENT LAPSE RATES...CAPE AND JET DYNAMICS LEAD TO INCREASING
CONFIDENCE FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BE STRONG TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN FEEL THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIE DOWN AROUND
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ON WEDNESDAY WILL FINALLY
HAVE SOME INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY. TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BOTH BE WARM WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM EDT MONDAY...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A
SURFACE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS. AS EXPECTED, GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THIS MORNINGS
ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET OUTPUT. WITH FAVORABLE TIMING AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY/SHEAR, POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS
STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

BEHIND THURSDAY`S FRONT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED, BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME EVIDENCE THAT A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM SATURDAY ONWARD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR TROUGH BEGINS TO
REORGANIZE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE
SOUTHERLY AND ROBUST OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE, THOUGH SOME OF THE
OTHER MEDIUM RANGE OUTPUT HAS TRENDED IN ITS DIRECTION. THUS I`M
STILL EXPECTING THAT MOST OF THE SAT-MON TIME FRAME SHOULD BE DRY,
BUT GIVEN THESE TRENDS I DID INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT, MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 10 KTS OR LESS,
HEAVILY GOVERNED BY TERRAIN/LAKE BREEZES AT SELECTED TERMINALS.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING, BUT MOST TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AFTER 00Z VFR
TO CONTINUE UNDER LIGHT WINDS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK,
AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON POTENTIAL OF
SHOWER/ISOLD STORMS DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA LATER TONIGHT,
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME, SO NO MENTION IN
THE FORECAST.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE 18-02Z TIME FRAME. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. IFR IN BR/FG ALSO POSSIBLE
AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS
WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG



000
FXUS61 KBTV 271909
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
309 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER TO START THE WEEK WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS PRODUCING SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAY CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1259 PM EDT MONDAY...
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA HASN`T BEGUN TO
FIRE JUST YET OVER OUR AREA SO I TAPERED BACK THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS BY A FEW HOURS JUST COMING IN LINE WITH SOME OF THE HIRES
MODELS. GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING ALOFT THE HIRES WINDOWS HAVE LEAD
TO A VARIETY OF RESULTS FROM WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EVERYWHERE TO
ALMOST NOTHING. GIVEN YESTERDAY`S EVENTS, AND PLENTY OF LAPS
ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY, I TOOK THE APPROACH OF EXPECTING A LAKE
BREEZE TO DEVELOP BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO THE BURLINGTON AREA
SOME TIME MID AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A WEAK
VORT MOVES SOUTH FROM QUEBEC LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TOWARDS EARLY
EVENING. NOTHING BUT COSMETIC CHANGES ELSEWHERE TO MATCH OBS FOR
TEMPS AND DEW POINTS. I DID TRY TO ADD IN A BIT MORE DETAIL OVER
LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS THE COOLER WATER TEMPS ARE PREVENTING THE NEAR
SHORE TEMPS FROM INCREASING AS MUCH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1023AM EDT MONDAY...SOME FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS STILL HANGING TOUGH OVER VERMONT BUT SLOWLY DISSIPATING. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE AT 1030 THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE PROLIFIC
OVER MOST OF VERMONT AND THE ADIRONDACKS THIS MORNING. FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL ERODE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY AS WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES EAST, REVEALING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR PART
OF THE DAY.

LIGHT WIND FLOW, PERSISTING OUT OF THE NW ALOFT WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE HEATING
WILL CREATE SOME INSTABILITY, ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO THE MID TEENS AND RESULT IN MAX
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 424 AM EDT MONDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL STAY
ENTRENCHED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES
AS A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC.

COME TUESDAY MORNING, INCREASING WIND SHEAR WITH A STRONG JET AT
MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL AID IN CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARMER WILL PROVIDE SBCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1000J/KG GENERALLY
OVER NE PORTIONS OF VERMONT. NAM AND BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BETWEEN 9000-11000 FT OVER PORTIONS OF
VERMONT. HAVE INCLUDED WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE GREENS AND AREAS EAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED JET LINGERS INTO
TUESDAY EVENING, STRENGTHENING AND THEN SHIFTING EAST OF VERMONT
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WHICH WILL PROLONG THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASING, HELPING TO SQUELCH
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
AS SURFACE HEATING WILL STILL SEE MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO
LOW 90S AND SOME LINGERING WIND SHEAR MAY EXIST FROM DEPARTING
JET.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM EDT MONDAY...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A
SURFACE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS. AS EXPECTED, GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THIS MORNINGS
ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET OUTPUT. WITH FAVORABLE TIMING AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY/SHEAR, POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS
STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

BEHIND THURSDAY`S FRONT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED,
BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FROM
FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME EVIDENCE THAT A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM SATURDAY ONWARD INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR TROUGH BEGINS TO REORGANIZE ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE SOUTHERLY AND ROBUST OUTLIER
WITH THIS FEATURE, THOUGH SOME OF THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE OUTPUT HAS
TRENDED IN ITS DIRECTION. THUS I`M STILL EXPECTING THAT MOST OF THE
SAT-MON TIME FRAME SHOULD BE DRY, BUT GIVEN THESE TRENDS I DID
INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
THE AREA, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH LIGHT, MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 10 KTS OR LESS,
HEAVILY GOVERNED BY TERRAIN/LAKE BREEZES AT SELECTED TERMINALS.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING, BUT MOST TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AFTER 00Z VFR
TO CONTINUE UNDER LIGHT WINDS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK,
AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON POTENTIAL OF
SHOWER/ISOLD STORMS DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA LATER TONIGHT,
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME, SO NO MENTION IN
THE FORECAST.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE 18-02Z TIME FRAME. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. IFR IN BR/FG ALSO POSSIBLE
AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...DEAL/NEILES
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG



000
FXUS61 KBTV 271909
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
309 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER TO START THE WEEK WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS PRODUCING SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAY CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1259 PM EDT MONDAY...
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA HASN`T BEGUN TO
FIRE JUST YET OVER OUR AREA SO I TAPERED BACK THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS BY A FEW HOURS JUST COMING IN LINE WITH SOME OF THE HIRES
MODELS. GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING ALOFT THE HIRES WINDOWS HAVE LEAD
TO A VARIETY OF RESULTS FROM WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EVERYWHERE TO
ALMOST NOTHING. GIVEN YESTERDAY`S EVENTS, AND PLENTY OF LAPS
ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY, I TOOK THE APPROACH OF EXPECTING A LAKE
BREEZE TO DEVELOP BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO THE BURLINGTON AREA
SOME TIME MID AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A WEAK
VORT MOVES SOUTH FROM QUEBEC LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TOWARDS EARLY
EVENING. NOTHING BUT COSMETIC CHANGES ELSEWHERE TO MATCH OBS FOR
TEMPS AND DEW POINTS. I DID TRY TO ADD IN A BIT MORE DETAIL OVER
LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS THE COOLER WATER TEMPS ARE PREVENTING THE NEAR
SHORE TEMPS FROM INCREASING AS MUCH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1023AM EDT MONDAY...SOME FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS STILL HANGING TOUGH OVER VERMONT BUT SLOWLY DISSIPATING. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE AT 1030 THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE PROLIFIC
OVER MOST OF VERMONT AND THE ADIRONDACKS THIS MORNING. FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL ERODE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY AS WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES EAST, REVEALING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR PART
OF THE DAY.

LIGHT WIND FLOW, PERSISTING OUT OF THE NW ALOFT WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE HEATING
WILL CREATE SOME INSTABILITY, ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO THE MID TEENS AND RESULT IN MAX
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 424 AM EDT MONDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL STAY
ENTRENCHED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES
AS A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC.

COME TUESDAY MORNING, INCREASING WIND SHEAR WITH A STRONG JET AT
MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL AID IN CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARMER WILL PROVIDE SBCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1000J/KG GENERALLY
OVER NE PORTIONS OF VERMONT. NAM AND BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BETWEEN 9000-11000 FT OVER PORTIONS OF
VERMONT. HAVE INCLUDED WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE GREENS AND AREAS EAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED JET LINGERS INTO
TUESDAY EVENING, STRENGTHENING AND THEN SHIFTING EAST OF VERMONT
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WHICH WILL PROLONG THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASING, HELPING TO SQUELCH
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
AS SURFACE HEATING WILL STILL SEE MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO
LOW 90S AND SOME LINGERING WIND SHEAR MAY EXIST FROM DEPARTING
JET.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 309 PM EDT MONDAY...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A
SURFACE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS. AS EXPECTED, GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THIS MORNINGS
ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET OUTPUT. WITH FAVORABLE TIMING AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY/SHEAR, POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS
STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

BEHIND THURSDAY`S FRONT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED,
BUT STILL ON THE WARM SIDE, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FROM
FRIDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME EVIDENCE THAT A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM SATURDAY ONWARD INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR TROUGH BEGINS TO REORGANIZE ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE SOUTHERLY AND ROBUST OUTLIER
WITH THIS FEATURE, THOUGH SOME OF THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE OUTPUT HAS
TRENDED IN ITS DIRECTION. THUS I`M STILL EXPECTING THAT MOST OF THE
SAT-MON TIME FRAME SHOULD BE DRY, BUT GIVEN THESE TRENDS I DID
INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
THE AREA, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH LIGHT, MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 10 KTS OR LESS,
HEAVILY GOVERNED BY TERRAIN/LAKE BREEZES AT SELECTED TERMINALS.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING, BUT MOST TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AFTER 00Z VFR
TO CONTINUE UNDER LIGHT WINDS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK,
AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON POTENTIAL OF
SHOWER/ISOLD STORMS DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA LATER TONIGHT,
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME, SO NO MENTION IN
THE FORECAST.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE 18-02Z TIME FRAME. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. IFR IN BR/FG ALSO POSSIBLE
AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...DEAL/NEILES
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG




000
FXUS61 KALY 271730
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO BUILD OVER
THE HILLS. A MODIFIED KALB 12Z SOUNDING BASED ON FORECAST MAX OF
85F HAS OVER 2000J/KG OF CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING IN...AIR IS RELATIVELY DRY ALOFT. CELLS LOOK TO
PULSE UP...ENTRAIN SOME...AND THEN PULSE DOWN. VERY WEAK MEAN WIND
TODAY OF 270 AT 7 KTS. STORMS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO EAST OR
SOUTHEAST. THERE IS AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT TODAY DUE TO
AVAILABLE ENERGY AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.

UPDATED POPS TO INCREASE COVERAGE OF STORMS SLIGHTLY BASED ON
RADAR. ALSO INCREASED MAX TEMPS 3 DEG F AS MANY LOCATIONS HAVE
ALREADY REACHED EARLIER FORECAST MAXES. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER SOME
BASED ON SATELLITE LOOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE HEAT MAXIMIZING ON WEDNESDAY
AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20 DEG CELSIUS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS TUESDAY
IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY REACH THE UPPER 90S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH.

PCPN WISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROF DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS TROF WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND AROUND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE REGION STILL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE FRONT INTERACTING WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND HUMID AIR
MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
WHILE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE
REGION...THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEPENDING
ON THE EVENTUAL MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AS WELL UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOT DEPICTING MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE LOWER AT LEAST INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY...AS A DISTURBANCE POTENTIALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES THOUGH...AS THE GFS IS SHOWING A
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE RESULT IS
THE GFS DEPICTING MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL MENTION SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS THIS IS WHERE
THE GFS IS INDICATING THE BEST POTENTIAL BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE
DISTURBANCE.

SUNDAY MAY END UP DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BASED ON THE ZONAL FLOW AND ANY POSSIBLE WEAK ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCE THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
AROUND HIGHER TERRAIN BUT AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE STAYING AWAY FROM
THE TAF SITES.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOW MOVING...SO
UNLESS ONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPS VERY CLOSE TO A TAF
SITE...THE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  ACKNOWLEDGING A VCSH FOR KPSF AND KPOU WHERE THERE IS A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEARBY THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WILL END AFTER
SUNSET AND WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AND LIGHT WINDS...SOME FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS COULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.  INDICATING IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT KPSF AND KGFL...WITH MVFR AT KPOU AND
KALB. AFTER 13Z-14Z...RETURN TO VFR.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH TO WEST AT 6 KT OR LESS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN NEAR CALM TONIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 6 KT PR LESS
TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ONLY LOWER TO BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
TODAY...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT TODAY INTO TUESDAY...EXCEPT STRONGER WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/WASULA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 271730
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO BUILD OVER
THE HILLS. A MODIFIED KALB 12Z SOUNDING BASED ON FORECAST MAX OF
85F HAS OVER 2000J/KG OF CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING IN...AIR IS RELATIVELY DRY ALOFT. CELLS LOOK TO
PULSE UP...ENTRAIN SOME...AND THEN PULSE DOWN. VERY WEAK MEAN WIND
TODAY OF 270 AT 7 KTS. STORMS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO EAST OR
SOUTHEAST. THERE IS AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT TODAY DUE TO
AVAILABLE ENERGY AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.

UPDATED POPS TO INCREASE COVERAGE OF STORMS SLIGHTLY BASED ON
RADAR. ALSO INCREASED MAX TEMPS 3 DEG F AS MANY LOCATIONS HAVE
ALREADY REACHED EARLIER FORECAST MAXES. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER SOME
BASED ON SATELLITE LOOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE HEAT MAXIMIZING ON WEDNESDAY
AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20 DEG CELSIUS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS TUESDAY
IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY REACH THE UPPER 90S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH.

PCPN WISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROF DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS TROF WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND AROUND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE REGION STILL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE FRONT INTERACTING WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND HUMID AIR
MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
WHILE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE
REGION...THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEPENDING
ON THE EVENTUAL MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AS WELL UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOT DEPICTING MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE LOWER AT LEAST INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY...AS A DISTURBANCE POTENTIALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES THOUGH...AS THE GFS IS SHOWING A
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE RESULT IS
THE GFS DEPICTING MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL MENTION SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS THIS IS WHERE
THE GFS IS INDICATING THE BEST POTENTIAL BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE
DISTURBANCE.

SUNDAY MAY END UP DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BASED ON THE ZONAL FLOW AND ANY POSSIBLE WEAK ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCE THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
AROUND HIGHER TERRAIN BUT AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE STAYING AWAY FROM
THE TAF SITES.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOW MOVING...SO
UNLESS ONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPS VERY CLOSE TO A TAF
SITE...THE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  ACKNOWLEDGING A VCSH FOR KPSF AND KPOU WHERE THERE IS A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEARBY THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WILL END AFTER
SUNSET AND WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AND LIGHT WINDS...SOME FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS COULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.  INDICATING IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT KPSF AND KGFL...WITH MVFR AT KPOU AND
KALB. AFTER 13Z-14Z...RETURN TO VFR.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH TO WEST AT 6 KT OR LESS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN NEAR CALM TONIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 6 KT PR LESS
TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ONLY LOWER TO BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
TODAY...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT TODAY INTO TUESDAY...EXCEPT STRONGER WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/WASULA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 271730
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO BUILD OVER
THE HILLS. A MODIFIED KALB 12Z SOUNDING BASED ON FORECAST MAX OF
85F HAS OVER 2000J/KG OF CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING IN...AIR IS RELATIVELY DRY ALOFT. CELLS LOOK TO
PULSE UP...ENTRAIN SOME...AND THEN PULSE DOWN. VERY WEAK MEAN WIND
TODAY OF 270 AT 7 KTS. STORMS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO EAST OR
SOUTHEAST. THERE IS AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT TODAY DUE TO
AVAILABLE ENERGY AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.

UPDATED POPS TO INCREASE COVERAGE OF STORMS SLIGHTLY BASED ON
RADAR. ALSO INCREASED MAX TEMPS 3 DEG F AS MANY LOCATIONS HAVE
ALREADY REACHED EARLIER FORECAST MAXES. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER SOME
BASED ON SATELLITE LOOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE HEAT MAXIMIZING ON WEDNESDAY
AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20 DEG CELSIUS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS TUESDAY
IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY REACH THE UPPER 90S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH.

PCPN WISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROF DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS TROF WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND AROUND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE REGION STILL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE FRONT INTERACTING WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND HUMID AIR
MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
WHILE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE
REGION...THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEPENDING
ON THE EVENTUAL MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AS WELL UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOT DEPICTING MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE LOWER AT LEAST INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY...AS A DISTURBANCE POTENTIALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES THOUGH...AS THE GFS IS SHOWING A
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE RESULT IS
THE GFS DEPICTING MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL MENTION SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS THIS IS WHERE
THE GFS IS INDICATING THE BEST POTENTIAL BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE
DISTURBANCE.

SUNDAY MAY END UP DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BASED ON THE ZONAL FLOW AND ANY POSSIBLE WEAK ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCE THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
AROUND HIGHER TERRAIN BUT AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE STAYING AWAY FROM
THE TAF SITES.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOW MOVING...SO
UNLESS ONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPS VERY CLOSE TO A TAF
SITE...THE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  ACKNOWLEDGING A VCSH FOR KPSF AND KPOU WHERE THERE IS A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEARBY THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WILL END AFTER
SUNSET AND WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AND LIGHT WINDS...SOME FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS COULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.  INDICATING IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT KPSF AND KGFL...WITH MVFR AT KPOU AND
KALB. AFTER 13Z-14Z...RETURN TO VFR.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH TO WEST AT 6 KT OR LESS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN NEAR CALM TONIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 6 KT PR LESS
TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ONLY LOWER TO BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
TODAY...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT TODAY INTO TUESDAY...EXCEPT STRONGER WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/WASULA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 271730
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO BUILD OVER
THE HILLS. A MODIFIED KALB 12Z SOUNDING BASED ON FORECAST MAX OF
85F HAS OVER 2000J/KG OF CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING IN...AIR IS RELATIVELY DRY ALOFT. CELLS LOOK TO
PULSE UP...ENTRAIN SOME...AND THEN PULSE DOWN. VERY WEAK MEAN WIND
TODAY OF 270 AT 7 KTS. STORMS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO EAST OR
SOUTHEAST. THERE IS AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT TODAY DUE TO
AVAILABLE ENERGY AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.

UPDATED POPS TO INCREASE COVERAGE OF STORMS SLIGHTLY BASED ON
RADAR. ALSO INCREASED MAX TEMPS 3 DEG F AS MANY LOCATIONS HAVE
ALREADY REACHED EARLIER FORECAST MAXES. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER SOME
BASED ON SATELLITE LOOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE HEAT MAXIMIZING ON WEDNESDAY
AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20 DEG CELSIUS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS TUESDAY
IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY REACH THE UPPER 90S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH.

PCPN WISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROF DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS TROF WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND AROUND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE REGION STILL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE FRONT INTERACTING WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND HUMID AIR
MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
WHILE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE
REGION...THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEPENDING
ON THE EVENTUAL MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AS WELL UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOT DEPICTING MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE LOWER AT LEAST INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY...AS A DISTURBANCE POTENTIALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES THOUGH...AS THE GFS IS SHOWING A
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE RESULT IS
THE GFS DEPICTING MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL MENTION SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS THIS IS WHERE
THE GFS IS INDICATING THE BEST POTENTIAL BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE
DISTURBANCE.

SUNDAY MAY END UP DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BASED ON THE ZONAL FLOW AND ANY POSSIBLE WEAK ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCE THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
AROUND HIGHER TERRAIN BUT AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE STAYING AWAY FROM
THE TAF SITES.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOW MOVING...SO
UNLESS ONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPS VERY CLOSE TO A TAF
SITE...THE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  ACKNOWLEDGING A VCSH FOR KPSF AND KPOU WHERE THERE IS A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEARBY THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WILL END AFTER
SUNSET AND WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AND LIGHT WINDS...SOME FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS COULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.  INDICATING IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT KPSF AND KGFL...WITH MVFR AT KPOU AND
KALB. AFTER 13Z-14Z...RETURN TO VFR.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH TO WEST AT 6 KT OR LESS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN NEAR CALM TONIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 6 KT PR LESS
TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ONLY LOWER TO BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
TODAY...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT TODAY INTO TUESDAY...EXCEPT STRONGER WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...SND/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/WASULA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBTV 271724
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
124 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER TO START THE WEEK WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS PRODUCING SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAY CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1259 PM EDT MONDAY...
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA HASN`T BEGUN TO
FIRE JUST YET OVER OUR AREA SO I TAPERED BACK THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS BY A FEW HOURS JUST COMING IN LINE WITH SOME OF THE HIRES
MODELS. GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING ALOFT THE HIRES WINDOWS HAVE LEAD
TO A VARIETY OF RESULTS FROM WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EVERYWHERE TO
ALMOST NOTHING. GIVEN YESTERDAY`S EVENTS, AND PLENTY OF LAPS
ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY, I TOOK THE APPROACH OF EXPECTING A LAKE
BREEZE TO DEVELOP BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO THE BURLINGTON AREA
SOME TIME MID AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A WEAK
VORT MOVES SOUTH FROM QUEBEC LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TOWARDS EARLY
EVENING. NOTHING BUT COSMETIC CHANGES ELSEWHERE TO MATCH OBS FOR
TEMPS AND DEW POINTS. I DID TRY TO ADD IN A BIT MORE DETAIL OVER
LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS THE COOLER WATER TEMPS ARE PREVENTING THE NEAR
SHORE TEMPS FROM INCREASING AS MUCH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1023AM EDT MONDAY...SOME FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS STILL HANGING TOUGH OVER VERMONT BUT SLOWLY DISSIPATING. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE AT 1030 THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE PROLIFIC
OVER MOST OF VERMONT AND THE ADIRONDACKS THIS MORNING. FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL ERODE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY AS WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES EAST, REVEALING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR PART
OF THE DAY.

LIGHT WIND FLOW, PERSISTING OUT OF THE NW ALOFT WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE HEATING
WILL CREATE SOME INSTABILITY, ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO THE MID TEENS AND RESULT IN MAX
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 424 AM EDT MONDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL STAY
ENTRENCHED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES
AS A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC.

COME TUESDAY MORNING, INCREASING WIND SHEAR WITH A STRONG JET AT
MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL AID IN CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARMER WILL PROVIDE SBCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1000J/KG GENERALLY
OVER NE PORTIONS OF VERMONT. NAM AND BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BETWEEN 9000-11000 FT OVER PORTIONS OF
VERMONT. HAVE INCLUDED WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE GREENS AND AREAS EAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED JET LINGERS INTO
TUESDAY EVENING, STRENGTHENING AND THEN SHIFTING EAST OF VERMONT
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WHICH WILL PROLONG THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASING, HELPING TO SQUELCH
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
AS SURFACE HEATING WILL STILL SEE MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO
LOW 90S AND SOME LINGERING WIND SHEAR MAY EXIST FROM DEPARTING
JET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...MAIN ITEM IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CONTINUES TO BE THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AIR MASS WILL
DESTABILIZE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS RESIDE WELL INTO THE 60S. EVEN
THOUGH MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE LIFTING UP INTO
CANADA...SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT LIFT WILL OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE INCREASING
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STORMS TO BECOME
ORGANIZED AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE.
TIMING OF THE FRONT AT THIS TIME SUGGEST THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO EXPERIENCE THESE ORGANIZED
STORMS. DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AND WILL INCLUDE
THIS IDEA IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR RETURNS TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. WEAK
TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND THERE WILL BE A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH LIGHT, MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 10 KTS OR LESS,
HEAVILY GOVERNED BY TERRAIN/LAKE BREEZES AT SELECTED TERMINALS.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING, BUT MOST TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AFTER 00Z VFR
TO CONTINUE UNDER LIGHT WINDS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK,
AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON POTENTIAL OF
SHOWER/ISOLD STORMS DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA LATER TONIGHT,
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME, SO NO MENTION IN
THE FORECAST.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE 18-02Z TIME FRAME. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. IFR IN BR/FG ALSO POSSIBLE
AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...DEAL/NEILES
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...JMG



000
FXUS61 KBTV 271724
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
124 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER TO START THE WEEK WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS PRODUCING SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAY CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1259 PM EDT MONDAY...
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA HASN`T BEGUN TO
FIRE JUST YET OVER OUR AREA SO I TAPERED BACK THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS BY A FEW HOURS JUST COMING IN LINE WITH SOME OF THE HIRES
MODELS. GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING ALOFT THE HIRES WINDOWS HAVE LEAD
TO A VARIETY OF RESULTS FROM WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EVERYWHERE TO
ALMOST NOTHING. GIVEN YESTERDAY`S EVENTS, AND PLENTY OF LAPS
ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY, I TOOK THE APPROACH OF EXPECTING A LAKE
BREEZE TO DEVELOP BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO THE BURLINGTON AREA
SOME TIME MID AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A WEAK
VORT MOVES SOUTH FROM QUEBEC LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TOWARDS EARLY
EVENING. NOTHING BUT COSMETIC CHANGES ELSEWHERE TO MATCH OBS FOR
TEMPS AND DEW POINTS. I DID TRY TO ADD IN A BIT MORE DETAIL OVER
LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS THE COOLER WATER TEMPS ARE PREVENTING THE NEAR
SHORE TEMPS FROM INCREASING AS MUCH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1023AM EDT MONDAY...SOME FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS STILL HANGING TOUGH OVER VERMONT BUT SLOWLY DISSIPATING. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE AT 1030 THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE PROLIFIC
OVER MOST OF VERMONT AND THE ADIRONDACKS THIS MORNING. FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL ERODE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY AS WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES EAST, REVEALING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR PART
OF THE DAY.

LIGHT WIND FLOW, PERSISTING OUT OF THE NW ALOFT WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE HEATING
WILL CREATE SOME INSTABILITY, ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO THE MID TEENS AND RESULT IN MAX
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 424 AM EDT MONDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL STAY
ENTRENCHED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES
AS A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC.

COME TUESDAY MORNING, INCREASING WIND SHEAR WITH A STRONG JET AT
MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL AID IN CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARMER WILL PROVIDE SBCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1000J/KG GENERALLY
OVER NE PORTIONS OF VERMONT. NAM AND BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BETWEEN 9000-11000 FT OVER PORTIONS OF
VERMONT. HAVE INCLUDED WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE GREENS AND AREAS EAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED JET LINGERS INTO
TUESDAY EVENING, STRENGTHENING AND THEN SHIFTING EAST OF VERMONT
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WHICH WILL PROLONG THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASING, HELPING TO SQUELCH
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
AS SURFACE HEATING WILL STILL SEE MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO
LOW 90S AND SOME LINGERING WIND SHEAR MAY EXIST FROM DEPARTING
JET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...MAIN ITEM IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CONTINUES TO BE THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AIR MASS WILL
DESTABILIZE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS RESIDE WELL INTO THE 60S. EVEN
THOUGH MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE LIFTING UP INTO
CANADA...SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT LIFT WILL OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE INCREASING
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STORMS TO BECOME
ORGANIZED AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE.
TIMING OF THE FRONT AT THIS TIME SUGGEST THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO EXPERIENCE THESE ORGANIZED
STORMS. DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AND WILL INCLUDE
THIS IDEA IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR RETURNS TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. WEAK
TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND THERE WILL BE A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH LIGHT, MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 10 KTS OR LESS,
HEAVILY GOVERNED BY TERRAIN/LAKE BREEZES AT SELECTED TERMINALS.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING, BUT MOST TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AFTER 00Z VFR
TO CONTINUE UNDER LIGHT WINDS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK,
AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON POTENTIAL OF
SHOWER/ISOLD STORMS DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA LATER TONIGHT,
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME, SO NO MENTION IN
THE FORECAST.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE 18-02Z TIME FRAME. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. IFR IN BR/FG ALSO POSSIBLE
AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...DEAL/NEILES
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 271724
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
124 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER TO START THE WEEK WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS PRODUCING SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAY CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1259 PM EDT MONDAY...
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA HASN`T BEGUN TO
FIRE JUST YET OVER OUR AREA SO I TAPERED BACK THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS BY A FEW HOURS JUST COMING IN LINE WITH SOME OF THE HIRES
MODELS. GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING ALOFT THE HIRES WINDOWS HAVE LEAD
TO A VARIETY OF RESULTS FROM WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EVERYWHERE TO
ALMOST NOTHING. GIVEN YESTERDAY`S EVENTS, AND PLENTY OF LAPS
ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY, I TOOK THE APPROACH OF EXPECTING A LAKE
BREEZE TO DEVELOP BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO THE BURLINGTON AREA
SOME TIME MID AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A WEAK
VORT MOVES SOUTH FROM QUEBEC LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TOWARDS EARLY
EVENING. NOTHING BUT COSMETIC CHANGES ELSEWHERE TO MATCH OBS FOR
TEMPS AND DEW POINTS. I DID TRY TO ADD IN A BIT MORE DETAIL OVER
LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS THE COOLER WATER TEMPS ARE PREVENTING THE NEAR
SHORE TEMPS FROM INCREASING AS MUCH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1023AM EDT MONDAY...SOME FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS STILL HANGING TOUGH OVER VERMONT BUT SLOWLY DISSIPATING. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE AT 1030 THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE PROLIFIC
OVER MOST OF VERMONT AND THE ADIRONDACKS THIS MORNING. FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL ERODE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY AS WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES EAST, REVEALING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR PART
OF THE DAY.

LIGHT WIND FLOW, PERSISTING OUT OF THE NW ALOFT WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE HEATING
WILL CREATE SOME INSTABILITY, ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO THE MID TEENS AND RESULT IN MAX
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 424 AM EDT MONDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL STAY
ENTRENCHED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES
AS A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC.

COME TUESDAY MORNING, INCREASING WIND SHEAR WITH A STRONG JET AT
MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL AID IN CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARMER WILL PROVIDE SBCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1000J/KG GENERALLY
OVER NE PORTIONS OF VERMONT. NAM AND BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BETWEEN 9000-11000 FT OVER PORTIONS OF
VERMONT. HAVE INCLUDED WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE GREENS AND AREAS EAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED JET LINGERS INTO
TUESDAY EVENING, STRENGTHENING AND THEN SHIFTING EAST OF VERMONT
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WHICH WILL PROLONG THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASING, HELPING TO SQUELCH
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
AS SURFACE HEATING WILL STILL SEE MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO
LOW 90S AND SOME LINGERING WIND SHEAR MAY EXIST FROM DEPARTING
JET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...MAIN ITEM IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CONTINUES TO BE THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AIR MASS WILL
DESTABILIZE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS RESIDE WELL INTO THE 60S. EVEN
THOUGH MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE LIFTING UP INTO
CANADA...SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT LIFT WILL OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE INCREASING
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STORMS TO BECOME
ORGANIZED AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE.
TIMING OF THE FRONT AT THIS TIME SUGGEST THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO EXPERIENCE THESE ORGANIZED
STORMS. DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AND WILL INCLUDE
THIS IDEA IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR RETURNS TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. WEAK
TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND THERE WILL BE A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH LIGHT, MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 10 KTS OR LESS,
HEAVILY GOVERNED BY TERRAIN/LAKE BREEZES AT SELECTED TERMINALS.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING, BUT MOST TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AFTER 00Z VFR
TO CONTINUE UNDER LIGHT WINDS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK,
AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON POTENTIAL OF
SHOWER/ISOLD STORMS DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA LATER TONIGHT,
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME, SO NO MENTION IN
THE FORECAST.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE 18-02Z TIME FRAME. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. IFR IN BR/FG ALSO POSSIBLE
AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...DEAL/NEILES
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...JMG



000
FXUS61 KBTV 271724
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
124 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER TO START THE WEEK WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS PRODUCING SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAY CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1259 PM EDT MONDAY...
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA HASN`T BEGUN TO
FIRE JUST YET OVER OUR AREA SO I TAPERED BACK THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS BY A FEW HOURS JUST COMING IN LINE WITH SOME OF THE HIRES
MODELS. GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING ALOFT THE HIRES WINDOWS HAVE LEAD
TO A VARIETY OF RESULTS FROM WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EVERYWHERE TO
ALMOST NOTHING. GIVEN YESTERDAY`S EVENTS, AND PLENTY OF LAPS
ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY, I TOOK THE APPROACH OF EXPECTING A LAKE
BREEZE TO DEVELOP BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO THE BURLINGTON AREA
SOME TIME MID AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A WEAK
VORT MOVES SOUTH FROM QUEBEC LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TOWARDS EARLY
EVENING. NOTHING BUT COSMETIC CHANGES ELSEWHERE TO MATCH OBS FOR
TEMPS AND DEW POINTS. I DID TRY TO ADD IN A BIT MORE DETAIL OVER
LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS THE COOLER WATER TEMPS ARE PREVENTING THE NEAR
SHORE TEMPS FROM INCREASING AS MUCH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1023AM EDT MONDAY...SOME FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS STILL HANGING TOUGH OVER VERMONT BUT SLOWLY DISSIPATING. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE AT 1030 THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE PROLIFIC
OVER MOST OF VERMONT AND THE ADIRONDACKS THIS MORNING. FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL ERODE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY AS WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES EAST, REVEALING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR PART
OF THE DAY.

LIGHT WIND FLOW, PERSISTING OUT OF THE NW ALOFT WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE HEATING
WILL CREATE SOME INSTABILITY, ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO THE MID TEENS AND RESULT IN MAX
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 424 AM EDT MONDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL STAY
ENTRENCHED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES
AS A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC.

COME TUESDAY MORNING, INCREASING WIND SHEAR WITH A STRONG JET AT
MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL AID IN CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARMER WILL PROVIDE SBCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1000J/KG GENERALLY
OVER NE PORTIONS OF VERMONT. NAM AND BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BETWEEN 9000-11000 FT OVER PORTIONS OF
VERMONT. HAVE INCLUDED WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE GREENS AND AREAS EAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED JET LINGERS INTO
TUESDAY EVENING, STRENGTHENING AND THEN SHIFTING EAST OF VERMONT
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WHICH WILL PROLONG THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASING, HELPING TO SQUELCH
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
AS SURFACE HEATING WILL STILL SEE MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO
LOW 90S AND SOME LINGERING WIND SHEAR MAY EXIST FROM DEPARTING
JET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...MAIN ITEM IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CONTINUES TO BE THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AIR MASS WILL
DESTABILIZE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS RESIDE WELL INTO THE 60S. EVEN
THOUGH MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE LIFTING UP INTO
CANADA...SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT LIFT WILL OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE INCREASING
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STORMS TO BECOME
ORGANIZED AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE.
TIMING OF THE FRONT AT THIS TIME SUGGEST THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO EXPERIENCE THESE ORGANIZED
STORMS. DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AND WILL INCLUDE
THIS IDEA IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR RETURNS TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. WEAK
TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND THERE WILL BE A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH LIGHT, MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 10 KTS OR LESS,
HEAVILY GOVERNED BY TERRAIN/LAKE BREEZES AT SELECTED TERMINALS.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING, BUT MOST TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AFTER 00Z VFR
TO CONTINUE UNDER LIGHT WINDS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK,
AND POSSIBLE AT KMSS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON POTENTIAL OF
SHOWER/ISOLD STORMS DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA LATER TONIGHT,
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME, SO NO MENTION IN
THE FORECAST.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE 18-02Z TIME FRAME. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBY
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES. IFR IN BR/FG ALSO POSSIBLE
AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.

00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG 06-12Z.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...DEAL/NEILES
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...JMG




000
FXUS61 KBTV 271707
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
107 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER TO START THE WEEK WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS PRODUCING SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAY CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1259 PM EDT MONDAY...
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA HASN`T BEGUN TO
FIRE JUST YET OVER OUR AREA SO I TAPERED BACK THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS BY A FEW HOURS JUST COMING IN LINE WITH SOME OF THE HIRES
MODELS. GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING ALOFT THE HIRES WINDOWS HAVE LEAD
TO A VARIETY OF RESULTS FROM WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EVERYWHERE TO
ALMOST NOTHING. GIVEN YESTERDAY`S EVENTS, AND PLENTY OF LAPS
ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY, I TOOK THE APPROACH OF EXPECTING A LAKE
BREEZE TO DEVELOP BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO THE BURLINGTON AREA
SOME TIME MID AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A WEAK
VORT MOVES SOUTH FROM QUEBEC LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TOWARDS EARLY
EVENING. NOTHING BUT COSMETIC CHANGES ELSEWHERE TO MATCH OBS FOR
TEMPS AND DEW POINTS. I DID TRY TO ADD IN A BIT MORE DETAIL OVER
LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS THE COOLER WATER TEMPS ARE PREVENTING THE NEAR
SHORE TEMPS FROM INCREASING AS MUCH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1023AM EDT MONDAY...SOME FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS STILL HANGING TOUGH OVER VERMONT BUT SLOWLY DISSIPATING. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE AT 1030 THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE PROLIFIC
OVER MOST OF VERMONT AND THE ADIRONDACKS THIS MORNING. FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL ERODE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY AS WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES EAST, REVEALING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR PART
OF THE DAY.

LIGHT WIND FLOW, PERSISTING OUT OF THE NW ALOFT WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE HEATING
WILL CREATE SOME INSTABILITY, ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO THE MID TEENS AND RESULT IN MAX
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 424 AM EDT MONDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL STAY
ENTRENCHED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES
AS A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC.

COME TUESDAY MORNING, INCREASING WIND SHEAR WITH A STRONG JET AT
MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL AID IN CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARMER WILL PROVIDE SBCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1000J/KG GENERALLY
OVER NE PORTIONS OF VERMONT. NAM AND BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BETWEEN 9000-11000 FT OVER PORTIONS OF
VERMONT. HAVE INCLUDED WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE GREENS AND AREAS EAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED JET LINGERS INTO
TUESDAY EVENING, STRENGTHENING AND THEN SHIFTING EAST OF VERMONT
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WHICH WILL PROLONG THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASING, HELPING TO SQUELCH
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
AS SURFACE HEATING WILL STILL SEE MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO
LOW 90S AND SOME LINGERING WIND SHEAR MAY EXIST FROM DEPARTING
JET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...MAIN ITEM IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CONTINUES TO BE THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AIR MASS WILL
DESTABILIZE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS RESIDE WELL INTO THE 60S. EVEN
THOUGH MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE LIFTING UP INTO
CANADA...SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT LIFT WILL OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE INCREASING
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STORMS TO BECOME
ORGANIZED AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE.
TIMING OF THE FRONT AT THIS TIME SUGGEST THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO EXPERIENCE THESE ORGANIZED
STORMS. DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AND WILL INCLUDE
THIS IDEA IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR RETURNS TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. WEAK
TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND THERE WILL BE A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...EXPECT FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS THROUGH ABOUT
14Z AT MOST LOCATION. THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CREATE IFR TO
VLIFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THEN LOOKING AT VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES FROM 14Z THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST...SO HAVE MENTIONED VCSH
BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z FOR ALL BUT KMSS. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS UNDER 10 KNOTS LATER THIS
MORNING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN AFTER 00Z.
AFTER 06Z THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL EXIST WITH IFR
TO VLIFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD... THUS EXPECT IFR TO VLIFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...BEFORE BECOMING VFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND FIRST HALF OF
EACH NIGHT. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER
THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY AND DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. ANY OF THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. NO STORMS
ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. NO STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...DEAL/NEILES/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 271707
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
107 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER TO START THE WEEK WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS PRODUCING SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAY CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1259 PM EDT MONDAY...
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA HASN`T BEGUN TO
FIRE JUST YET OVER OUR AREA SO I TAPERED BACK THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS BY A FEW HOURS JUST COMING IN LINE WITH SOME OF THE HIRES
MODELS. GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING ALOFT THE HIRES WINDOWS HAVE LEAD
TO A VARIETY OF RESULTS FROM WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EVERYWHERE TO
ALMOST NOTHING. GIVEN YESTERDAY`S EVENTS, AND PLENTY OF LAPS
ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY, I TOOK THE APPROACH OF EXPECTING A LAKE
BREEZE TO DEVELOP BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO THE BURLINGTON AREA
SOME TIME MID AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A WEAK
VORT MOVES SOUTH FROM QUEBEC LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TOWARDS EARLY
EVENING. NOTHING BUT COSMETIC CHANGES ELSEWHERE TO MATCH OBS FOR
TEMPS AND DEW POINTS. I DID TRY TO ADD IN A BIT MORE DETAIL OVER
LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS THE COOLER WATER TEMPS ARE PREVENTING THE NEAR
SHORE TEMPS FROM INCREASING AS MUCH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1023AM EDT MONDAY...SOME FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS STILL HANGING TOUGH OVER VERMONT BUT SLOWLY DISSIPATING. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE AT 1030 THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE PROLIFIC
OVER MOST OF VERMONT AND THE ADIRONDACKS THIS MORNING. FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL ERODE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY AS WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES EAST, REVEALING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR PART
OF THE DAY.

LIGHT WIND FLOW, PERSISTING OUT OF THE NW ALOFT WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE HEATING
WILL CREATE SOME INSTABILITY, ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO THE MID TEENS AND RESULT IN MAX
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 424 AM EDT MONDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL STAY
ENTRENCHED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES
AS A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC.

COME TUESDAY MORNING, INCREASING WIND SHEAR WITH A STRONG JET AT
MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL AID IN CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARMER WILL PROVIDE SBCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1000J/KG GENERALLY
OVER NE PORTIONS OF VERMONT. NAM AND BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BETWEEN 9000-11000 FT OVER PORTIONS OF
VERMONT. HAVE INCLUDED WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE GREENS AND AREAS EAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED JET LINGERS INTO
TUESDAY EVENING, STRENGTHENING AND THEN SHIFTING EAST OF VERMONT
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WHICH WILL PROLONG THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASING, HELPING TO SQUELCH
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
AS SURFACE HEATING WILL STILL SEE MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO
LOW 90S AND SOME LINGERING WIND SHEAR MAY EXIST FROM DEPARTING
JET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...MAIN ITEM IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CONTINUES TO BE THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AIR MASS WILL
DESTABILIZE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS RESIDE WELL INTO THE 60S. EVEN
THOUGH MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE LIFTING UP INTO
CANADA...SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT LIFT WILL OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE INCREASING
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STORMS TO BECOME
ORGANIZED AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE.
TIMING OF THE FRONT AT THIS TIME SUGGEST THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO EXPERIENCE THESE ORGANIZED
STORMS. DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AND WILL INCLUDE
THIS IDEA IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR RETURNS TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. WEAK
TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND THERE WILL BE A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...EXPECT FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS THROUGH ABOUT
14Z AT MOST LOCATION. THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CREATE IFR TO
VLIFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THEN LOOKING AT VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES FROM 14Z THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST...SO HAVE MENTIONED VCSH
BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z FOR ALL BUT KMSS. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS UNDER 10 KNOTS LATER THIS
MORNING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN AFTER 00Z.
AFTER 06Z THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL EXIST WITH IFR
TO VLIFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD... THUS EXPECT IFR TO VLIFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...BEFORE BECOMING VFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND FIRST HALF OF
EACH NIGHT. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER
THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY AND DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. ANY OF THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. NO STORMS
ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. NO STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...DEAL/NEILES/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 271707
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
107 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER TO START THE WEEK WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS PRODUCING SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAY CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1259 PM EDT MONDAY...
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA HASN`T BEGUN TO
FIRE JUST YET OVER OUR AREA SO I TAPERED BACK THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS BY A FEW HOURS JUST COMING IN LINE WITH SOME OF THE HIRES
MODELS. GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING ALOFT THE HIRES WINDOWS HAVE LEAD
TO A VARIETY OF RESULTS FROM WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EVERYWHERE TO
ALMOST NOTHING. GIVEN YESTERDAY`S EVENTS, AND PLENTY OF LAPS
ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY, I TOOK THE APPROACH OF EXPECTING A LAKE
BREEZE TO DEVELOP BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO THE BURLINGTON AREA
SOME TIME MID AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A WEAK
VORT MOVES SOUTH FROM QUEBEC LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TOWARDS EARLY
EVENING. NOTHING BUT COSMETIC CHANGES ELSEWHERE TO MATCH OBS FOR
TEMPS AND DEW POINTS. I DID TRY TO ADD IN A BIT MORE DETAIL OVER
LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS THE COOLER WATER TEMPS ARE PREVENTING THE NEAR
SHORE TEMPS FROM INCREASING AS MUCH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1023AM EDT MONDAY...SOME FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS STILL HANGING TOUGH OVER VERMONT BUT SLOWLY DISSIPATING. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE AT 1030 THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE PROLIFIC
OVER MOST OF VERMONT AND THE ADIRONDACKS THIS MORNING. FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL ERODE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY AS WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES EAST, REVEALING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR PART
OF THE DAY.

LIGHT WIND FLOW, PERSISTING OUT OF THE NW ALOFT WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE HEATING
WILL CREATE SOME INSTABILITY, ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO THE MID TEENS AND RESULT IN MAX
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 424 AM EDT MONDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL STAY
ENTRENCHED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES
AS A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC.

COME TUESDAY MORNING, INCREASING WIND SHEAR WITH A STRONG JET AT
MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL AID IN CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARMER WILL PROVIDE SBCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1000J/KG GENERALLY
OVER NE PORTIONS OF VERMONT. NAM AND BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BETWEEN 9000-11000 FT OVER PORTIONS OF
VERMONT. HAVE INCLUDED WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE GREENS AND AREAS EAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED JET LINGERS INTO
TUESDAY EVENING, STRENGTHENING AND THEN SHIFTING EAST OF VERMONT
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WHICH WILL PROLONG THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASING, HELPING TO SQUELCH
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
AS SURFACE HEATING WILL STILL SEE MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO
LOW 90S AND SOME LINGERING WIND SHEAR MAY EXIST FROM DEPARTING
JET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...MAIN ITEM IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CONTINUES TO BE THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AIR MASS WILL
DESTABILIZE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS RESIDE WELL INTO THE 60S. EVEN
THOUGH MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE LIFTING UP INTO
CANADA...SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT LIFT WILL OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE INCREASING
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STORMS TO BECOME
ORGANIZED AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE.
TIMING OF THE FRONT AT THIS TIME SUGGEST THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO EXPERIENCE THESE ORGANIZED
STORMS. DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AND WILL INCLUDE
THIS IDEA IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR RETURNS TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. WEAK
TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND THERE WILL BE A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...EXPECT FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS THROUGH ABOUT
14Z AT MOST LOCATION. THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CREATE IFR TO
VLIFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THEN LOOKING AT VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES FROM 14Z THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST...SO HAVE MENTIONED VCSH
BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z FOR ALL BUT KMSS. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS UNDER 10 KNOTS LATER THIS
MORNING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN AFTER 00Z.
AFTER 06Z THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL EXIST WITH IFR
TO VLIFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD... THUS EXPECT IFR TO VLIFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...BEFORE BECOMING VFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND FIRST HALF OF
EACH NIGHT. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER
THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY AND DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. ANY OF THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. NO STORMS
ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. NO STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...DEAL/NEILES/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 271707
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
107 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER TO START THE WEEK WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS PRODUCING SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAY CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1259 PM EDT MONDAY...
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA HASN`T BEGUN TO
FIRE JUST YET OVER OUR AREA SO I TAPERED BACK THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS BY A FEW HOURS JUST COMING IN LINE WITH SOME OF THE HIRES
MODELS. GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING ALOFT THE HIRES WINDOWS HAVE LEAD
TO A VARIETY OF RESULTS FROM WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EVERYWHERE TO
ALMOST NOTHING. GIVEN YESTERDAY`S EVENTS, AND PLENTY OF LAPS
ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY, I TOOK THE APPROACH OF EXPECTING A LAKE
BREEZE TO DEVELOP BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO THE BURLINGTON AREA
SOME TIME MID AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A WEAK
VORT MOVES SOUTH FROM QUEBEC LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TOWARDS EARLY
EVENING. NOTHING BUT COSMETIC CHANGES ELSEWHERE TO MATCH OBS FOR
TEMPS AND DEW POINTS. I DID TRY TO ADD IN A BIT MORE DETAIL OVER
LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS THE COOLER WATER TEMPS ARE PREVENTING THE NEAR
SHORE TEMPS FROM INCREASING AS MUCH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1023AM EDT MONDAY...SOME FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS STILL HANGING TOUGH OVER VERMONT BUT SLOWLY DISSIPATING. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE AT 1030 THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE PROLIFIC
OVER MOST OF VERMONT AND THE ADIRONDACKS THIS MORNING. FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL ERODE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY AS WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES EAST, REVEALING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR PART
OF THE DAY.

LIGHT WIND FLOW, PERSISTING OUT OF THE NW ALOFT WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE HEATING
WILL CREATE SOME INSTABILITY, ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO THE MID TEENS AND RESULT IN MAX
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 424 AM EDT MONDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL STAY
ENTRENCHED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES
AS A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC.

COME TUESDAY MORNING, INCREASING WIND SHEAR WITH A STRONG JET AT
MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL AID IN CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARMER WILL PROVIDE SBCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1000J/KG GENERALLY
OVER NE PORTIONS OF VERMONT. NAM AND BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BETWEEN 9000-11000 FT OVER PORTIONS OF
VERMONT. HAVE INCLUDED WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE GREENS AND AREAS EAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED JET LINGERS INTO
TUESDAY EVENING, STRENGTHENING AND THEN SHIFTING EAST OF VERMONT
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WHICH WILL PROLONG THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASING, HELPING TO SQUELCH
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
AS SURFACE HEATING WILL STILL SEE MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO
LOW 90S AND SOME LINGERING WIND SHEAR MAY EXIST FROM DEPARTING
JET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...MAIN ITEM IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CONTINUES TO BE THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AIR MASS WILL
DESTABILIZE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS RESIDE WELL INTO THE 60S. EVEN
THOUGH MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE LIFTING UP INTO
CANADA...SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT LIFT WILL OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE INCREASING
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STORMS TO BECOME
ORGANIZED AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE.
TIMING OF THE FRONT AT THIS TIME SUGGEST THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO EXPERIENCE THESE ORGANIZED
STORMS. DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AND WILL INCLUDE
THIS IDEA IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR RETURNS TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. WEAK
TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND THERE WILL BE A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...EXPECT FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS THROUGH ABOUT
14Z AT MOST LOCATION. THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CREATE IFR TO
VLIFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THEN LOOKING AT VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES FROM 14Z THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST...SO HAVE MENTIONED VCSH
BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z FOR ALL BUT KMSS. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS UNDER 10 KNOTS LATER THIS
MORNING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN AFTER 00Z.
AFTER 06Z THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL EXIST WITH IFR
TO VLIFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD... THUS EXPECT IFR TO VLIFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...BEFORE BECOMING VFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND FIRST HALF OF
EACH NIGHT. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER
THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY AND DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. ANY OF THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. NO STORMS
ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. NO STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...DEAL/NEILES/KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 271425
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1025 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER TO START THE WEEK WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS PRODUCING SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAY CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1023 AM EDT MONDAY...SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS STILL HANGING
TOUGH OVER VERMONT BUT SLOWLY DISSIPATING. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
FOR THE UPDATE AT 1030 THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE PROLIFIC
OVER MOST OF VERMONT AND THE ADIRONDACKS THIS MORNING. FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL ERODE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY AS WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES EAST, REVEALING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR PART
OF THE DAY.

LIGHT WIND FLOW, PERSISTING OUT OF THE NW ALOFT WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE HEATING
WILL CREATE SOME INSTABILITY, ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO THE MID TEENS AND RESULT IN MAX
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 424 AM EDT MONDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL STAY
ENTRENCHED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES
AS A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC.

COME TUESDAY MORNING, INCREASING WIND SHEAR WITH A STRONG JET AT
MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL AID IN CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARMER WILL PROVIDE SBCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1000J/KG GENERALLY
OVER NE PORTIONS OF VERMONT. NAM AND BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BETWEEN 9000-11000 FT OVER PORTIONS OF
VERMONT. HAVE INCLUDED WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE GREENS AND AREAS EAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED JET LINGERS INTO
TUESDAY EVENING, STRENGTHENING AND THEN SHIFTING EAST OF VERMONT
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WHICH WILL PROLONG THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASING, HELPING TO SQUELCH
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
AS SURFACE HEATING WILL STILL SEE MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO
LOW 90S AND SOME LINGERING WIND SHEAR MAY EXIST FROM DEPARTING
JET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...MAIN ITEM IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CONTINUES TO BE THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AIR MASS WILL
DESTABILIZE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS RESIDE WELL INTO THE 60S. EVEN
THOUGH MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE LIFTING UP INTO
CANADA...SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT LIFT WILL OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE INCREASING
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STORMS TO BECOME
ORGANIZED AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE.
TIMING OF THE FRONT AT THIS TIME SUGGEST THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO EXPERIENCE THESE ORGANIZED
STORMS. DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AND WILL INCLUDE
THIS IDEA IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR RETURNS TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. WEAK
TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND THERE WILL BE A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...EXPECT FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS THROUGH ABOUT
14Z AT MOST LOCATION. THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CREATE IFR TO
VLIFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THEN LOOKING AT VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES FROM 14Z THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST...SO HAVE MENTIONED VCSH
BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z FOR ALL BUT KMSS. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS UNDER 10 KNOTS LATER THIS
MORNING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN AFTER 00Z.
AFTER 06Z THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL EXIST WITH IFR
TO VLIFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD... THUS EXPECT IFR TO VLIFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...BEFORE BECOMING VFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND FIRST HALF OF
EACH NIGHT. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER
THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY AND DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. ANY OF THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. NO STORMS
ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. NO STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM/NEILES
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 271425
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1025 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER TO START THE WEEK WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS PRODUCING SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAY CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1023 AM EDT MONDAY...SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS STILL HANGING
TOUGH OVER VERMONT BUT SLOWLY DISSIPATING. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
FOR THE UPDATE AT 1030 THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE PROLIFIC
OVER MOST OF VERMONT AND THE ADIRONDACKS THIS MORNING. FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL ERODE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY AS WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES EAST, REVEALING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR PART
OF THE DAY.

LIGHT WIND FLOW, PERSISTING OUT OF THE NW ALOFT WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE HEATING
WILL CREATE SOME INSTABILITY, ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO THE MID TEENS AND RESULT IN MAX
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 424 AM EDT MONDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL STAY
ENTRENCHED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES
AS A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC.

COME TUESDAY MORNING, INCREASING WIND SHEAR WITH A STRONG JET AT
MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL AID IN CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARMER WILL PROVIDE SBCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1000J/KG GENERALLY
OVER NE PORTIONS OF VERMONT. NAM AND BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BETWEEN 9000-11000 FT OVER PORTIONS OF
VERMONT. HAVE INCLUDED WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE GREENS AND AREAS EAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED JET LINGERS INTO
TUESDAY EVENING, STRENGTHENING AND THEN SHIFTING EAST OF VERMONT
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WHICH WILL PROLONG THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASING, HELPING TO SQUELCH
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
AS SURFACE HEATING WILL STILL SEE MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO
LOW 90S AND SOME LINGERING WIND SHEAR MAY EXIST FROM DEPARTING
JET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...MAIN ITEM IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CONTINUES TO BE THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AIR MASS WILL
DESTABILIZE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS RESIDE WELL INTO THE 60S. EVEN
THOUGH MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE LIFTING UP INTO
CANADA...SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT LIFT WILL OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE INCREASING
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STORMS TO BECOME
ORGANIZED AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE.
TIMING OF THE FRONT AT THIS TIME SUGGEST THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO EXPERIENCE THESE ORGANIZED
STORMS. DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AND WILL INCLUDE
THIS IDEA IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR RETURNS TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. WEAK
TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND THERE WILL BE A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...EXPECT FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS THROUGH ABOUT
14Z AT MOST LOCATION. THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CREATE IFR TO
VLIFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THEN LOOKING AT VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES FROM 14Z THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST...SO HAVE MENTIONED VCSH
BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z FOR ALL BUT KMSS. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS UNDER 10 KNOTS LATER THIS
MORNING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN AFTER 00Z.
AFTER 06Z THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL EXIST WITH IFR
TO VLIFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD... THUS EXPECT IFR TO VLIFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...BEFORE BECOMING VFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND FIRST HALF OF
EACH NIGHT. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER
THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY AND DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. ANY OF THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. NO STORMS
ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. NO STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM/NEILES
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON




000
FXUS61 KALY 271418
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1018 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LIFTED...AND SKY CLEARING...FEW SPRINKELS GONE.
CURRENT DATA AND TRENDS...AS WELL AS MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ANY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE FROM THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS THROUGH MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL TACONICS...
NW CT THROUGH THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT. AGAIN...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACTIVITY. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT SOME GENERAL
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...BUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY IN MOST AREAS...ALLOWING FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUN...AIDING
TEMPERATURES TO REACH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90...AROUND 80 IN
HIGHER TERRAIN. JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO RAIN CHANCES...
TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALONFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE HEAT MAXIMIZING ON WEDNESDAY
AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20 DEG CELSIUS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS TUESDAY
IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY REACH THE UPPER 90S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH.

PCPN WISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROF DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS TROF WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND AROUND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE REGION STILL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE FRONT INTERACTING WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND HUMID AIR
MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
WHILE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE
REGION...THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEPENDING
ON THE EVENTUAL MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AS WELL UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOT DEPICTING MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE LOWER AT LEAST INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY...AS A DISTURBANCE POTENTIALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES THOUGH...AS THE GFS IS SHOWING A
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE RESULT IS
THE GFS DEPICTING MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL MENTION SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS THIS IS WHERE
THE GFS IS INDICATING THE BEST POTENTIAL BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE
DISTURBANCE.

SUNDAY MAY END UP DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BASED ON THE ZONAL FLOW AND ANY POSSIBLE WEAK ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCE THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12Z-13Z AND
ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE WILL MENTION VCSH FOR NOW.
SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCE MAY BE ABLE TO BETTER TIME CONVECTION WITH
TEMPOS.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH CLEARING EXPECTED RADIATION FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH IFR AT KGFL/KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING S-SW AROUND 5 KTS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ONLY LOWER TO BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
TODAY...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT TODAY INTO TUESDAY...EXCEPT STRONGER WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KALY 271418
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1018 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LIFTED...AND SKY CLEARING...FEW SPRINKELS GONE.
CURRENT DATA AND TRENDS...AS WELL AS MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ANY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE FROM THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS THROUGH MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL TACONICS...
NW CT THROUGH THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT. AGAIN...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACTIVITY. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT SOME GENERAL
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...BUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY IN MOST AREAS...ALLOWING FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUN...AIDING
TEMPERATURES TO REACH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90...AROUND 80 IN
HIGHER TERRAIN. JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO RAIN CHANCES...
TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALONFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE HEAT MAXIMIZING ON WEDNESDAY
AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20 DEG CELSIUS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS TUESDAY
IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY REACH THE UPPER 90S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH.

PCPN WISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROF DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS TROF WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND AROUND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE REGION STILL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE FRONT INTERACTING WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND HUMID AIR
MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
WHILE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE
REGION...THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEPENDING
ON THE EVENTUAL MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AS WELL UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOT DEPICTING MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE LOWER AT LEAST INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY...AS A DISTURBANCE POTENTIALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES THOUGH...AS THE GFS IS SHOWING A
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE RESULT IS
THE GFS DEPICTING MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL MENTION SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS THIS IS WHERE
THE GFS IS INDICATING THE BEST POTENTIAL BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE
DISTURBANCE.

SUNDAY MAY END UP DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BASED ON THE ZONAL FLOW AND ANY POSSIBLE WEAK ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCE THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12Z-13Z AND
ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE WILL MENTION VCSH FOR NOW.
SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCE MAY BE ABLE TO BETTER TIME CONVECTION WITH
TEMPOS.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH CLEARING EXPECTED RADIATION FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH IFR AT KGFL/KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING S-SW AROUND 5 KTS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ONLY LOWER TO BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
TODAY...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT TODAY INTO TUESDAY...EXCEPT STRONGER WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA



000
FXUS61 KBTV 271142
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
742 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER TO START THE WEEK WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS PRODUCING SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAY CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 717 AM EDT MONDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VALLEY FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS ARE PROLIFIC OVER MOST OF VERMONT AND THE ADIRONDACKS
THIS MORNING. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY AS WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES EAST,
REVEALING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR PART OF THE DAY.

LIGHT WIND FLOW, PERSISTING OUT OF THE NW ALOFT WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE HEATING
WILL CREATE SOME INSTABILITY, ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO THE MID TEENS AND RESULT IN MAX
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 424 AM EDT MONDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL STAY
ENTRENCHED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES
AS A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC.

COME TUESDAY MORNING, INCREASING WIND SHEAR WITH A STRONG JET AT
MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL AID IN CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARMER WILL PROVIDE SBCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1000J/KG GENERALLY
OVER NE PORTIONS OF VERMONT. NAM AND BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BETWEEN 9000-11000 FT OVER PORTIONS OF
VERMONT. HAVE INCLUDED WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE GREENS AND AREAS EAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED JET LINGERS INTO
TUESDAY EVENING, STRENGTHENING AND THEN SHIFTING EAST OF VERMONT
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WHICH WILL PROLONG THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASING, HELPING TO SQUELCH
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
AS SURFACE HEATING WILL STILL SEE MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO
LOW 90S AND SOME LINGERING WIND SHEAR MAY EXIST FROM DEPARTING
JET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...MAIN ITEM IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CONTINUES TO BE THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AIR MASS WILL
DESTABILIZE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS RESIDE WELL INTO THE 60S. EVEN
THOUGH MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE LIFTING UP INTO
CANADA...SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT LIFT WILL OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE INCREASING
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STORMS TO BECOME
ORGANIZED AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE.
TIMING OF THE FRONT AT THIS TIME SUGGEST THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO EXPERIENCE THESE ORGANIZED
STORMS. DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AND WILL INCLUDE
THIS IDEA IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR RETURNS TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. WEAK
TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND THERE WILL BE A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...EXPECT FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS THROUGH ABOUT
14Z AT MOST LOCATION. THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CREATE IFR TO
VLIFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THEN LOOKING AT VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES FROM 14Z THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST...SO HAVE MENTIONED VCSH
BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z FOR ALL BUT KMSS. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS UNDER 10 KNOTS LATER THIS
MORNING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN AFTER 00Z.
AFTER 06Z THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL EXIST WITH IFR
TO VLIFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD...
THUS EXPECT IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE BECOMING VFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
AND FIRST HALF OF EACH NIGHT. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY AND DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST. ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS. NO STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. NO
STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 271142
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
742 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER TO START THE WEEK WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS PRODUCING SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAY CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 717 AM EDT MONDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VALLEY FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS ARE PROLIFIC OVER MOST OF VERMONT AND THE ADIRONDACKS
THIS MORNING. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY AS WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES EAST,
REVEALING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR PART OF THE DAY.

LIGHT WIND FLOW, PERSISTING OUT OF THE NW ALOFT WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE HEATING
WILL CREATE SOME INSTABILITY, ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO THE MID TEENS AND RESULT IN MAX
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 424 AM EDT MONDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL STAY
ENTRENCHED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES
AS A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC.

COME TUESDAY MORNING, INCREASING WIND SHEAR WITH A STRONG JET AT
MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL AID IN CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARMER WILL PROVIDE SBCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1000J/KG GENERALLY
OVER NE PORTIONS OF VERMONT. NAM AND BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BETWEEN 9000-11000 FT OVER PORTIONS OF
VERMONT. HAVE INCLUDED WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE GREENS AND AREAS EAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED JET LINGERS INTO
TUESDAY EVENING, STRENGTHENING AND THEN SHIFTING EAST OF VERMONT
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WHICH WILL PROLONG THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASING, HELPING TO SQUELCH
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
AS SURFACE HEATING WILL STILL SEE MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO
LOW 90S AND SOME LINGERING WIND SHEAR MAY EXIST FROM DEPARTING
JET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...MAIN ITEM IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CONTINUES TO BE THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AIR MASS WILL
DESTABILIZE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS RESIDE WELL INTO THE 60S. EVEN
THOUGH MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE LIFTING UP INTO
CANADA...SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT LIFT WILL OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE INCREASING
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STORMS TO BECOME
ORGANIZED AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE.
TIMING OF THE FRONT AT THIS TIME SUGGEST THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO EXPERIENCE THESE ORGANIZED
STORMS. DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AND WILL INCLUDE
THIS IDEA IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR RETURNS TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. WEAK
TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND THERE WILL BE A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...EXPECT FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS THROUGH ABOUT
14Z AT MOST LOCATION. THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CREATE IFR TO
VLIFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THEN LOOKING AT VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES FROM 14Z THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST...SO HAVE MENTIONED VCSH
BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z FOR ALL BUT KMSS. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS UNDER 10 KNOTS LATER THIS
MORNING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN AFTER 00Z.
AFTER 06Z THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL EXIST WITH IFR
TO VLIFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD...
THUS EXPECT IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE BECOMING VFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
AND FIRST HALF OF EACH NIGHT. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY AND DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST. ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS. NO STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. NO
STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 271117
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
717 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER TO START THE WEEK WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS PRODUCING SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAY CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 717 AM EDT MONDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VALLEY FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS ARE PROLIFIC OVER MOST OF VERMONT AND THE ADIRONDACKS
THIS MORNING. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY AS WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES EAST,
REVEALING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR PART OF THE DAY.

LIGHT WIND FLOW, PERSISTING OUT OF THE NW ALOFT WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE HEATING
WILL CREATE SOME INSTABILITY, ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO THE MID TEENS AND RESULT IN MAX
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 424 AM EDT MONDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL STAY
ENTRENCHED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES
AS A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC.

COME TUESDAY MORNING, INCREASING WIND SHEAR WITH A STRONG JET AT
MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL AID IN CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARMER WILL PROVIDE SBCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1000J/KG GENERALLY
OVER NE PORTIONS OF VERMONT. NAM AND BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BETWEEN 9000-11000 FT OVER PORTIONS OF
VERMONT. HAVE INCLUDED WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE GREENS AND AREAS EAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED JET LINGERS INTO
TUESDAY EVENING, STRENGTHENING AND THEN SHIFTING EAST OF VERMONT
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WHICH WILL PROLONG THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASING, HELPING TO SQUELCH
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
AS SURFACE HEATING WILL STILL SEE MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO
LOW 90S AND SOME LINGERING WIND SHEAR MAY EXIST FROM DEPARTING
JET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...MAIN ITEM IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CONTINUES TO BE THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AIR MASS WILL
DESTABILIZE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS RESIDE WELL INTO THE 60S. EVEN
THOUGH MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE LIFTING UP INTO
CANADA...SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT LIFT WILL OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE INCREASING
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STORMS TO BECOME
ORGANIZED AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE.
TIMING OF THE FRONT AT THIS TIME SUGGEST THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO EXPERIENCE THESE ORGANIZED
STORMS. DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AND WILL INCLUDE
THIS IDEA IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR RETURNS TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. WEAK
TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND THERE WILL BE A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...EXPECT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THROUGH ABOUT 13Z
AT MOST TAF SITES...KRUT BEING THE ONE EXCEPTION. THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL CREATE IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...THEN LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES FROM 13Z
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST...SO HAVE MENTIONED VCSH BETWEEN 20Z AND 01Z FOR ALL BUT
KMSS. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT
SPEEDS UNDER 10 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THUS EXPECT IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE BECOMING VFR FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY AND FIRST HALF OF EACH NIGHT. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY AND DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST. ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS. NO STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. NO
STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 271117
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
717 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER TO START THE WEEK WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS PRODUCING SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAY CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 717 AM EDT MONDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VALLEY FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS ARE PROLIFIC OVER MOST OF VERMONT AND THE ADIRONDACKS
THIS MORNING. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY AS WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES EAST,
REVEALING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR PART OF THE DAY.

LIGHT WIND FLOW, PERSISTING OUT OF THE NW ALOFT WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE HEATING
WILL CREATE SOME INSTABILITY, ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO THE MID TEENS AND RESULT IN MAX
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 424 AM EDT MONDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL STAY
ENTRENCHED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES
AS A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC.

COME TUESDAY MORNING, INCREASING WIND SHEAR WITH A STRONG JET AT
MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL AID IN CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARMER WILL PROVIDE SBCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1000J/KG GENERALLY
OVER NE PORTIONS OF VERMONT. NAM AND BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BETWEEN 9000-11000 FT OVER PORTIONS OF
VERMONT. HAVE INCLUDED WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE GREENS AND AREAS EAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED JET LINGERS INTO
TUESDAY EVENING, STRENGTHENING AND THEN SHIFTING EAST OF VERMONT
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WHICH WILL PROLONG THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASING, HELPING TO SQUELCH
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
AS SURFACE HEATING WILL STILL SEE MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO
LOW 90S AND SOME LINGERING WIND SHEAR MAY EXIST FROM DEPARTING
JET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...MAIN ITEM IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CONTINUES TO BE THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AIR MASS WILL
DESTABILIZE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS RESIDE WELL INTO THE 60S. EVEN
THOUGH MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE LIFTING UP INTO
CANADA...SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT LIFT WILL OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE INCREASING
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STORMS TO BECOME
ORGANIZED AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE.
TIMING OF THE FRONT AT THIS TIME SUGGEST THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO EXPERIENCE THESE ORGANIZED
STORMS. DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AND WILL INCLUDE
THIS IDEA IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR RETURNS TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. WEAK
TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND THERE WILL BE A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...EXPECT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THROUGH ABOUT 13Z
AT MOST TAF SITES...KRUT BEING THE ONE EXCEPTION. THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL CREATE IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...THEN LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES FROM 13Z
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST...SO HAVE MENTIONED VCSH BETWEEN 20Z AND 01Z FOR ALL BUT
KMSS. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT
SPEEDS UNDER 10 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THUS EXPECT IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE BECOMING VFR FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY AND FIRST HALF OF EACH NIGHT. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY AND DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST. ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS. NO STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. NO
STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 271117
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
717 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER TO START THE WEEK WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS PRODUCING SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAY CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 717 AM EDT MONDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VALLEY FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS ARE PROLIFIC OVER MOST OF VERMONT AND THE ADIRONDACKS
THIS MORNING. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY AS WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES EAST,
REVEALING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR PART OF THE DAY.

LIGHT WIND FLOW, PERSISTING OUT OF THE NW ALOFT WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE HEATING
WILL CREATE SOME INSTABILITY, ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO THE MID TEENS AND RESULT IN MAX
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 424 AM EDT MONDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL STAY
ENTRENCHED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES
AS A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC.

COME TUESDAY MORNING, INCREASING WIND SHEAR WITH A STRONG JET AT
MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL AID IN CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARMER WILL PROVIDE SBCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1000J/KG GENERALLY
OVER NE PORTIONS OF VERMONT. NAM AND BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BETWEEN 9000-11000 FT OVER PORTIONS OF
VERMONT. HAVE INCLUDED WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE GREENS AND AREAS EAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED JET LINGERS INTO
TUESDAY EVENING, STRENGTHENING AND THEN SHIFTING EAST OF VERMONT
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WHICH WILL PROLONG THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASING, HELPING TO SQUELCH
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
AS SURFACE HEATING WILL STILL SEE MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO
LOW 90S AND SOME LINGERING WIND SHEAR MAY EXIST FROM DEPARTING
JET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...MAIN ITEM IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CONTINUES TO BE THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AIR MASS WILL
DESTABILIZE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS RESIDE WELL INTO THE 60S. EVEN
THOUGH MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE LIFTING UP INTO
CANADA...SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT LIFT WILL OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE INCREASING
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STORMS TO BECOME
ORGANIZED AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE.
TIMING OF THE FRONT AT THIS TIME SUGGEST THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO EXPERIENCE THESE ORGANIZED
STORMS. DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AND WILL INCLUDE
THIS IDEA IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR RETURNS TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. WEAK
TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND THERE WILL BE A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...EXPECT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THROUGH ABOUT 13Z
AT MOST TAF SITES...KRUT BEING THE ONE EXCEPTION. THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL CREATE IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...THEN LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES FROM 13Z
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST...SO HAVE MENTIONED VCSH BETWEEN 20Z AND 01Z FOR ALL BUT
KMSS. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT
SPEEDS UNDER 10 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THUS EXPECT IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE BECOMING VFR FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY AND FIRST HALF OF EACH NIGHT. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY AND DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST. ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS. NO STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. NO
STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 271117
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
717 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER TO START THE WEEK WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS PRODUCING SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAY CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 717 AM EDT MONDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VALLEY FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS ARE PROLIFIC OVER MOST OF VERMONT AND THE ADIRONDACKS
THIS MORNING. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY AS WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES EAST,
REVEALING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR PART OF THE DAY.

LIGHT WIND FLOW, PERSISTING OUT OF THE NW ALOFT WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE HEATING
WILL CREATE SOME INSTABILITY, ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO THE MID TEENS AND RESULT IN MAX
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 424 AM EDT MONDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL STAY
ENTRENCHED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES
AS A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC.

COME TUESDAY MORNING, INCREASING WIND SHEAR WITH A STRONG JET AT
MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL AID IN CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARMER WILL PROVIDE SBCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1000J/KG GENERALLY
OVER NE PORTIONS OF VERMONT. NAM AND BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BETWEEN 9000-11000 FT OVER PORTIONS OF
VERMONT. HAVE INCLUDED WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE GREENS AND AREAS EAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED JET LINGERS INTO
TUESDAY EVENING, STRENGTHENING AND THEN SHIFTING EAST OF VERMONT
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WHICH WILL PROLONG THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASING, HELPING TO SQUELCH
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
AS SURFACE HEATING WILL STILL SEE MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO
LOW 90S AND SOME LINGERING WIND SHEAR MAY EXIST FROM DEPARTING
JET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...MAIN ITEM IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CONTINUES TO BE THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AIR MASS WILL
DESTABILIZE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS RESIDE WELL INTO THE 60S. EVEN
THOUGH MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE LIFTING UP INTO
CANADA...SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT LIFT WILL OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE INCREASING
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STORMS TO BECOME
ORGANIZED AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE.
TIMING OF THE FRONT AT THIS TIME SUGGEST THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO EXPERIENCE THESE ORGANIZED
STORMS. DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AND WILL INCLUDE
THIS IDEA IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR RETURNS TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. WEAK
TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND THERE WILL BE A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...EXPECT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THROUGH ABOUT 13Z
AT MOST TAF SITES...KRUT BEING THE ONE EXCEPTION. THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL CREATE IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...THEN LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES FROM 13Z
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST...SO HAVE MENTIONED VCSH BETWEEN 20Z AND 01Z FOR ALL BUT
KMSS. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT
SPEEDS UNDER 10 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THUS EXPECT IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE BECOMING VFR FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY AND FIRST HALF OF EACH NIGHT. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY AND DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST. ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS. NO STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. NO
STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON




000
FXUS61 KALY 271047
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
647 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM...ONLY SOME MINOR TEMP AND CLOUD ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.

WEAK FLOW ALOFT...A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...AND A WEAK BOUNDARY
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR GETTING WET TODAY WILL BE
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO
RISE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT...BUT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALONFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE HEAT MAXIMIZING ON WEDNESDAY
AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20 DEG CELSIUS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS TUESDAY
IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY REACH THE UPPER 90S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH.

PCPN WISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROF DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS TROF WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND AROUND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE REGION STILL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE FRONT INTERACTING WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND HUMID AIR
MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
WHILE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE
REGION...THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEPENDING
ON THE EVENTUAL MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AS WELL UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOT DEPICTING MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE LOWER AT LEAST INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY...AS A DISTURBANCE POTENTIALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES THOUGH...AS THE GFS IS SHOWING A
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE RESULT IS
THE GFS DEPICTING MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL MENTION SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS THIS IS WHERE
THE GFS IS INDICATING THE BEST POTENTIAL BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE
DISTURBANCE.

SUNDAY MAY END UP DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BASED ON THE ZONAL FLOW AND ANY POSSIBLE WEAK ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCE THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12Z-13Z AND
ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE WILL MENTION VCSH FOR NOW.
SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCE MAY BE ABLE TO BETTER TIME CONVECTION WITH
TEMPOS.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH CLEARING EXPECTED RADIATION FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH IFR AT KGFL/KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING S-SW AROUND 5 KTS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ONLY LOWER TO BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
TODAY...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT TODAY INTO TUESDAY...EXCEPT STRONGER WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/WASULA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 271047
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
647 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM...ONLY SOME MINOR TEMP AND CLOUD ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.

WEAK FLOW ALOFT...A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...AND A WEAK BOUNDARY
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR GETTING WET TODAY WILL BE
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO
RISE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT...BUT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALONFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE HEAT MAXIMIZING ON WEDNESDAY
AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20 DEG CELSIUS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS TUESDAY
IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY REACH THE UPPER 90S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH.

PCPN WISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROF DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS TROF WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND AROUND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE REGION STILL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE FRONT INTERACTING WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND HUMID AIR
MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
WHILE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE
REGION...THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEPENDING
ON THE EVENTUAL MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AS WELL UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOT DEPICTING MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE LOWER AT LEAST INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY...AS A DISTURBANCE POTENTIALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES THOUGH...AS THE GFS IS SHOWING A
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE RESULT IS
THE GFS DEPICTING MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL MENTION SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS THIS IS WHERE
THE GFS IS INDICATING THE BEST POTENTIAL BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE
DISTURBANCE.

SUNDAY MAY END UP DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BASED ON THE ZONAL FLOW AND ANY POSSIBLE WEAK ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCE THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12Z-13Z AND
ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE WILL MENTION VCSH FOR NOW.
SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCE MAY BE ABLE TO BETTER TIME CONVECTION WITH
TEMPOS.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH CLEARING EXPECTED RADIATION FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH IFR AT KGFL/KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING S-SW AROUND 5 KTS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ONLY LOWER TO BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
TODAY...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT TODAY INTO TUESDAY...EXCEPT STRONGER WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/WASULA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 271047
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
647 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM...ONLY SOME MINOR TEMP AND CLOUD ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.

WEAK FLOW ALOFT...A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...AND A WEAK BOUNDARY
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR GETTING WET TODAY WILL BE
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO
RISE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT...BUT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALONFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE HEAT MAXIMIZING ON WEDNESDAY
AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20 DEG CELSIUS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS TUESDAY
IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY REACH THE UPPER 90S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH.

PCPN WISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROF DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS TROF WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND AROUND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE REGION STILL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE FRONT INTERACTING WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND HUMID AIR
MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
WHILE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE
REGION...THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEPENDING
ON THE EVENTUAL MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AS WELL UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOT DEPICTING MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE LOWER AT LEAST INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY...AS A DISTURBANCE POTENTIALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES THOUGH...AS THE GFS IS SHOWING A
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE RESULT IS
THE GFS DEPICTING MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL MENTION SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS THIS IS WHERE
THE GFS IS INDICATING THE BEST POTENTIAL BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE
DISTURBANCE.

SUNDAY MAY END UP DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BASED ON THE ZONAL FLOW AND ANY POSSIBLE WEAK ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCE THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12Z-13Z AND
ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE WILL MENTION VCSH FOR NOW.
SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCE MAY BE ABLE TO BETTER TIME CONVECTION WITH
TEMPOS.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH CLEARING EXPECTED RADIATION FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH IFR AT KGFL/KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING S-SW AROUND 5 KTS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ONLY LOWER TO BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
TODAY...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT TODAY INTO TUESDAY...EXCEPT STRONGER WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/WASULA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 271030
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK FLOW ALOFT...A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...AND A WEAK BOUNDARY
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR GETTING WET TODAY WILL BE
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO
RISE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT...BUT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALONFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE HEAT MAXIMIZING ON WEDNESDAY
AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20 DEG CELSIUS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS TUESDAY
IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY REACH THE UPPER 90S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH.

PCPN WISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROF DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS TROF WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND AROUND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE REGION STILL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE FRONT INTERACTING WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND HUMID AIR
MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
WHILE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE
REGION...THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEPENDING
ON THE EVENTUAL MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AS WELL UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOT DEPICTING MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE LOWER AT LEAST INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY...AS A DISTURBANCE POTENTIALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES THOUGH...AS THE GFS IS SHOWING A
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE RESULT IS
THE GFS DEPICTING MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL MENTION SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS THIS IS WHERE
THE GFS IS INDICATING THE BEST POTENTIAL BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE
DISTURBANCE.

SUNDAY MAY END UP DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BASED ON THE ZONAL FLOW AND ANY POSSIBLE WEAK ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCE THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12Z-13Z AND
ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE WILL MENTION VCSH FOR NOW.
SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCE MAY BE ABLE TO BETTER TIME CONVECTION WITH
TEMPOS.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH CLEARING EXPECTED RADIATION FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH IFR AT KGFL/KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING S-SW AROUND 5 KTS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ONLY LOWER TO BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
TODAY...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT TODAY INTO TUESDAY...EXCEPT STRONGER WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/WASULA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 271030
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK FLOW ALOFT...A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...AND A WEAK BOUNDARY
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR GETTING WET TODAY WILL BE
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO
RISE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT...BUT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALONFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE HEAT MAXIMIZING ON WEDNESDAY
AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20 DEG CELSIUS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS TUESDAY
IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY REACH THE UPPER 90S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH.

PCPN WISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROF DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS TROF WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND AROUND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE REGION STILL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE FRONT INTERACTING WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND HUMID AIR
MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
WHILE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE
REGION...THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEPENDING
ON THE EVENTUAL MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AS WELL UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOT DEPICTING MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE LOWER AT LEAST INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY...AS A DISTURBANCE POTENTIALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES THOUGH...AS THE GFS IS SHOWING A
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE RESULT IS
THE GFS DEPICTING MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL MENTION SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS THIS IS WHERE
THE GFS IS INDICATING THE BEST POTENTIAL BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE
DISTURBANCE.

SUNDAY MAY END UP DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BASED ON THE ZONAL FLOW AND ANY POSSIBLE WEAK ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCE THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12Z-13Z AND
ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE WILL MENTION VCSH FOR NOW.
SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCE MAY BE ABLE TO BETTER TIME CONVECTION WITH
TEMPOS.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH CLEARING EXPECTED RADIATION FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH IFR AT KGFL/KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING S-SW AROUND 5 KTS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ONLY LOWER TO BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
TODAY...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT TODAY INTO TUESDAY...EXCEPT STRONGER WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/WASULA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 271030
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK FLOW ALOFT...A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...AND A WEAK BOUNDARY
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR GETTING WET TODAY WILL BE
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO
RISE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT...BUT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALONFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE HEAT MAXIMIZING ON WEDNESDAY
AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20 DEG CELSIUS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS TUESDAY
IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY REACH THE UPPER 90S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH.

PCPN WISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROF DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS TROF WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND AROUND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE REGION STILL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE FRONT INTERACTING WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND HUMID AIR
MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
WHILE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE
REGION...THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEPENDING
ON THE EVENTUAL MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AS WELL UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOT DEPICTING MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE LOWER AT LEAST INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY...AS A DISTURBANCE POTENTIALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES THOUGH...AS THE GFS IS SHOWING A
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE RESULT IS
THE GFS DEPICTING MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL MENTION SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS THIS IS WHERE
THE GFS IS INDICATING THE BEST POTENTIAL BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE
DISTURBANCE.

SUNDAY MAY END UP DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BASED ON THE ZONAL FLOW AND ANY POSSIBLE WEAK ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCE THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12Z-13Z AND
ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE WILL MENTION VCSH FOR NOW.
SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCE MAY BE ABLE TO BETTER TIME CONVECTION WITH
TEMPOS.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH CLEARING EXPECTED RADIATION FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH IFR AT KGFL/KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING S-SW AROUND 5 KTS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ONLY LOWER TO BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
TODAY...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT TODAY INTO TUESDAY...EXCEPT STRONGER WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/WASULA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 271030
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK FLOW ALOFT...A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...AND A WEAK BOUNDARY
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR GETTING WET TODAY WILL BE
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO
RISE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT...BUT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALONFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE HEAT MAXIMIZING ON WEDNESDAY
AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20 DEG CELSIUS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS TUESDAY
IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY REACH THE UPPER 90S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH.

PCPN WISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROF DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS TROF WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND AROUND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE REGION STILL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE FRONT INTERACTING WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND HUMID AIR
MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
WHILE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE
REGION...THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEPENDING
ON THE EVENTUAL MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AS WELL UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOT DEPICTING MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE LOWER AT LEAST INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY...AS A DISTURBANCE POTENTIALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES THOUGH...AS THE GFS IS SHOWING A
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE RESULT IS
THE GFS DEPICTING MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL MENTION SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS THIS IS WHERE
THE GFS IS INDICATING THE BEST POTENTIAL BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE
DISTURBANCE.

SUNDAY MAY END UP DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BASED ON THE ZONAL FLOW AND ANY POSSIBLE WEAK ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCE THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12Z-13Z AND
ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE WILL MENTION VCSH FOR NOW.
SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCE MAY BE ABLE TO BETTER TIME CONVECTION WITH
TEMPOS.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH CLEARING EXPECTED RADIATION FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH IFR AT KGFL/KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING S-SW AROUND 5 KTS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ONLY LOWER TO BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
TODAY...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT TODAY INTO TUESDAY...EXCEPT STRONGER WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/WASULA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 271030
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK FLOW ALOFT...A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...AND A WEAK BOUNDARY
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR GETTING WET TODAY WILL BE
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO
RISE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT...BUT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALONFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE HEAT MAXIMIZING ON WEDNESDAY
AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20 DEG CELSIUS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS TUESDAY
IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY REACH THE UPPER 90S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH.

PCPN WISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROF DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS TROF WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND AROUND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE REGION STILL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE FRONT INTERACTING WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND HUMID AIR
MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
WHILE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE
REGION...THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEPENDING
ON THE EVENTUAL MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AS WELL UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOT DEPICTING MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE LOWER AT LEAST INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY...AS A DISTURBANCE POTENTIALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES THOUGH...AS THE GFS IS SHOWING A
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE RESULT IS
THE GFS DEPICTING MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL MENTION SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS THIS IS WHERE
THE GFS IS INDICATING THE BEST POTENTIAL BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE
DISTURBANCE.

SUNDAY MAY END UP DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BASED ON THE ZONAL FLOW AND ANY POSSIBLE WEAK ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCE THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12Z-13Z AND
ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE WILL MENTION VCSH FOR NOW.
SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCE MAY BE ABLE TO BETTER TIME CONVECTION WITH
TEMPOS.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH CLEARING EXPECTED RADIATION FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH IFR AT KGFL/KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING S-SW AROUND 5 KTS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ONLY LOWER TO BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
TODAY...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT TODAY INTO TUESDAY...EXCEPT STRONGER WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/WASULA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 271030
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK FLOW ALOFT...A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...AND A WEAK BOUNDARY
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR GETTING WET TODAY WILL BE
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO
RISE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT...BUT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALONFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE HEAT MAXIMIZING ON WEDNESDAY
AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20 DEG CELSIUS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS TUESDAY
IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY REACH THE UPPER 90S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH.

PCPN WISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROF DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS TROF WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND AROUND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE REGION STILL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE FRONT INTERACTING WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND HUMID AIR
MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
WHILE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE
REGION...THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEPENDING
ON THE EVENTUAL MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AS WELL UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOT DEPICTING MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE LOWER AT LEAST INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY...AS A DISTURBANCE POTENTIALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES THOUGH...AS THE GFS IS SHOWING A
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE RESULT IS
THE GFS DEPICTING MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL MENTION SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS THIS IS WHERE
THE GFS IS INDICATING THE BEST POTENTIAL BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE
DISTURBANCE.

SUNDAY MAY END UP DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BASED ON THE ZONAL FLOW AND ANY POSSIBLE WEAK ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCE THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12Z-13Z AND
ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE WILL MENTION VCSH FOR NOW.
SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCE MAY BE ABLE TO BETTER TIME CONVECTION WITH
TEMPOS.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH CLEARING EXPECTED RADIATION FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH IFR AT KGFL/KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING S-SW AROUND 5 KTS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ONLY LOWER TO BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
TODAY...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT TODAY INTO TUESDAY...EXCEPT STRONGER WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/WASULA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 270903
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
503 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK FLOW ALOFT...A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...AND A WEAK BOUNDARY
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR GETTING WET TODAY WILL BE
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO
RISE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT...BUT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALONFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE HEAT MAXIMIZING ON WEDNESDAY
AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20 DEG CELSIUS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS TUESDAY
IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY REACH THE UPPER 90S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH.

PCPN WISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROF DROPS SOTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS TROF WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND AROUND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE REGION STILL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE FRONT INTERACTING WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND HUMID AIR
MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
WHILE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE
REGION...THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEPENDING
ON THE EVENTUAL MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AS WELL UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOT DEPICTING MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE LOWER AT LEAST INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY...AS A DISTURBANCE POTENTIALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES THOUGH...AS THE GFS IS SHOWING A
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE RESULT IS
THE GFS DEPICTING MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL MENTION SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS THIS IS WHERE
THE GFS IS INDICATING THE BEST POTENTIAL BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE
DISTURBANCE.

SUNDAY MAY END UP DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BASED ON THE ZONAL FLOW AND ANY POSSIBLE WEAK ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCE THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES...FOG WILL BE
LIKELY AT MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS INTO THIS MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS FOR IFR INCLUDE KPSF/KGFL WHICH ARE TYPICAL FOR RADIATION
FOG. KPSF ALREADY LIFR AND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH 12Z. VSBYS JUST
STARTING TO DROP TO MVFR LEVELS AT KGFL AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE TO IFR STARTING BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. DECIDED TO MENTION A
TEMPO AT KPOU FOR IFR BETWEEN 08Z-10Z SINCE RAINFALL OCCURRED
YESTERDAY RESULTING IN MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BREAKS IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS LOWER HERE THAN AT
KGFL/KPSF. WILL MENTION MVFR CONDITIONS AT KALB...ALTHOUGH FOG WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE VICINITY ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER SO WILL ADD BCFG.

FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12Z-13Z AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED
WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE
COVERAGE WILL MENTION VCSH FOR NOW. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING S-SW AROUND 5 KTS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. AREAS FG.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ONLY LOWER TO BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
TODAY...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT TODAY INTO TUESDAY...EXCEPT STRONGER WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/WASULA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 270903
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
503 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK FLOW ALOFT...A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...AND A WEAK BOUNDARY
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR GETTING WET TODAY WILL BE
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO
RISE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT...BUT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALONFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE HEAT MAXIMIZING ON WEDNESDAY
AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20 DEG CELSIUS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS TUESDAY
IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY REACH THE UPPER 90S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH.

PCPN WISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROF DROPS SOTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS TROF WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND AROUND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE REGION STILL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE FRONT INTERACTING WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND HUMID AIR
MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
WHILE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE
REGION...THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEPENDING
ON THE EVENTUAL MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AS WELL UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOT DEPICTING MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE LOWER AT LEAST INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY...AS A DISTURBANCE POTENTIALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES THOUGH...AS THE GFS IS SHOWING A
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE RESULT IS
THE GFS DEPICTING MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL MENTION SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS THIS IS WHERE
THE GFS IS INDICATING THE BEST POTENTIAL BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE
DISTURBANCE.

SUNDAY MAY END UP DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BASED ON THE ZONAL FLOW AND ANY POSSIBLE WEAK ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCE THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES...FOG WILL BE
LIKELY AT MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS INTO THIS MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS FOR IFR INCLUDE KPSF/KGFL WHICH ARE TYPICAL FOR RADIATION
FOG. KPSF ALREADY LIFR AND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH 12Z. VSBYS JUST
STARTING TO DROP TO MVFR LEVELS AT KGFL AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE TO IFR STARTING BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. DECIDED TO MENTION A
TEMPO AT KPOU FOR IFR BETWEEN 08Z-10Z SINCE RAINFALL OCCURRED
YESTERDAY RESULTING IN MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BREAKS IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS LOWER HERE THAN AT
KGFL/KPSF. WILL MENTION MVFR CONDITIONS AT KALB...ALTHOUGH FOG WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE VICINITY ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER SO WILL ADD BCFG.

FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12Z-13Z AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED
WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE
COVERAGE WILL MENTION VCSH FOR NOW. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING S-SW AROUND 5 KTS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. AREAS FG.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ONLY LOWER TO BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
TODAY...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT TODAY INTO TUESDAY...EXCEPT STRONGER WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/WASULA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 270903
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
503 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK FLOW ALOFT...A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...AND A WEAK BOUNDARY
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR GETTING WET TODAY WILL BE
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO
RISE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT...BUT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALONFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE HEAT MAXIMIZING ON WEDNESDAY
AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20 DEG CELSIUS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS TUESDAY
IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY REACH THE UPPER 90S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH.

PCPN WISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROF DROPS SOTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS TROF WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND AROUND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE REGION STILL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE FRONT INTERACTING WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND HUMID AIR
MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
WHILE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE
REGION...THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEPENDING
ON THE EVENTUAL MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AS WELL UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOT DEPICTING MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE LOWER AT LEAST INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY...AS A DISTURBANCE POTENTIALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES THOUGH...AS THE GFS IS SHOWING A
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE RESULT IS
THE GFS DEPICTING MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL MENTION SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS THIS IS WHERE
THE GFS IS INDICATING THE BEST POTENTIAL BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE
DISTURBANCE.

SUNDAY MAY END UP DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BASED ON THE ZONAL FLOW AND ANY POSSIBLE WEAK ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCE THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES...FOG WILL BE
LIKELY AT MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS INTO THIS MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS FOR IFR INCLUDE KPSF/KGFL WHICH ARE TYPICAL FOR RADIATION
FOG. KPSF ALREADY LIFR AND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH 12Z. VSBYS JUST
STARTING TO DROP TO MVFR LEVELS AT KGFL AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE TO IFR STARTING BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. DECIDED TO MENTION A
TEMPO AT KPOU FOR IFR BETWEEN 08Z-10Z SINCE RAINFALL OCCURRED
YESTERDAY RESULTING IN MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BREAKS IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS LOWER HERE THAN AT
KGFL/KPSF. WILL MENTION MVFR CONDITIONS AT KALB...ALTHOUGH FOG WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE VICINITY ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER SO WILL ADD BCFG.

FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12Z-13Z AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED
WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE
COVERAGE WILL MENTION VCSH FOR NOW. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING S-SW AROUND 5 KTS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. AREAS FG.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ONLY LOWER TO BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
TODAY...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT TODAY INTO TUESDAY...EXCEPT STRONGER WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/WASULA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 270903
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
503 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK FLOW ALOFT...A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...AND A WEAK BOUNDARY
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR GETTING WET TODAY WILL BE
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO
RISE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT...BUT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALONFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE HEAT MAXIMIZING ON WEDNESDAY
AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20 DEG CELSIUS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS TUESDAY
IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY REACH THE UPPER 90S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH.

PCPN WISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROF DROPS SOTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS TROF WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND AROUND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE REGION STILL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE FRONT INTERACTING WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND HUMID AIR
MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
WHILE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE
REGION...THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEPENDING
ON THE EVENTUAL MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AS WELL UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOT DEPICTING MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE LOWER AT LEAST INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY...AS A DISTURBANCE POTENTIALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES THOUGH...AS THE GFS IS SHOWING A
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE RESULT IS
THE GFS DEPICTING MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL MENTION SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS THIS IS WHERE
THE GFS IS INDICATING THE BEST POTENTIAL BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE
DISTURBANCE.

SUNDAY MAY END UP DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BASED ON THE ZONAL FLOW AND ANY POSSIBLE WEAK ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCE THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES...FOG WILL BE
LIKELY AT MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS INTO THIS MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS FOR IFR INCLUDE KPSF/KGFL WHICH ARE TYPICAL FOR RADIATION
FOG. KPSF ALREADY LIFR AND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH 12Z. VSBYS JUST
STARTING TO DROP TO MVFR LEVELS AT KGFL AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE TO IFR STARTING BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. DECIDED TO MENTION A
TEMPO AT KPOU FOR IFR BETWEEN 08Z-10Z SINCE RAINFALL OCCURRED
YESTERDAY RESULTING IN MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BREAKS IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS LOWER HERE THAN AT
KGFL/KPSF. WILL MENTION MVFR CONDITIONS AT KALB...ALTHOUGH FOG WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE VICINITY ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER SO WILL ADD BCFG.

FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12Z-13Z AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED
WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE
COVERAGE WILL MENTION VCSH FOR NOW. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING S-SW AROUND 5 KTS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. AREAS FG.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ONLY LOWER TO BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
TODAY...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT TODAY INTO TUESDAY...EXCEPT STRONGER WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/WASULA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 270903
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
503 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK FLOW ALOFT...A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...AND A WEAK BOUNDARY
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR GETTING WET TODAY WILL BE
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO
RISE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT...BUT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALONFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE HEAT MAXIMIZING ON WEDNESDAY
AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20 DEG CELSIUS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS TUESDAY
IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY REACH THE UPPER 90S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH.

PCPN WISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROF DROPS SOTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS TROF WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND AROUND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE REGION STILL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE FRONT INTERACTING WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND HUMID AIR
MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
WHILE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE
REGION...THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEPENDING
ON THE EVENTUAL MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AS WELL UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOT DEPICTING MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE LOWER AT LEAST INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY...AS A DISTURBANCE POTENTIALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES THOUGH...AS THE GFS IS SHOWING A
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE RESULT IS
THE GFS DEPICTING MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL MENTION SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS THIS IS WHERE
THE GFS IS INDICATING THE BEST POTENTIAL BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE
DISTURBANCE.

SUNDAY MAY END UP DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BASED ON THE ZONAL FLOW AND ANY POSSIBLE WEAK ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCE THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES...FOG WILL BE
LIKELY AT MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS INTO THIS MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS FOR IFR INCLUDE KPSF/KGFL WHICH ARE TYPICAL FOR RADIATION
FOG. KPSF ALREADY LIFR AND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH 12Z. VSBYS JUST
STARTING TO DROP TO MVFR LEVELS AT KGFL AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE TO IFR STARTING BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. DECIDED TO MENTION A
TEMPO AT KPOU FOR IFR BETWEEN 08Z-10Z SINCE RAINFALL OCCURRED
YESTERDAY RESULTING IN MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BREAKS IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS LOWER HERE THAN AT
KGFL/KPSF. WILL MENTION MVFR CONDITIONS AT KALB...ALTHOUGH FOG WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE VICINITY ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER SO WILL ADD BCFG.

FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12Z-13Z AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED
WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE
COVERAGE WILL MENTION VCSH FOR NOW. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING S-SW AROUND 5 KTS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. AREAS FG.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ONLY LOWER TO BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
TODAY...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT TODAY INTO TUESDAY...EXCEPT STRONGER WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/WASULA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 270903
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
503 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK FLOW ALOFT...A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...AND A WEAK BOUNDARY
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR GETTING WET TODAY WILL BE
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO
RISE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT...BUT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALONFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE HEAT MAXIMIZING ON WEDNESDAY
AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20 DEG CELSIUS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS TUESDAY
IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ON
WEDNESDAY MAY REACH THE UPPER 90S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY
SOUTH.

PCPN WISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD DUE TO THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROF DROPS SOTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS TROF WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND AROUND THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE REGION STILL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE FRONT INTERACTING WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND HUMID AIR
MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
WHILE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE
REGION...THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEPENDING
ON THE EVENTUAL MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AS WELL UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOT DEPICTING MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE LOWER AT LEAST INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY...AS A DISTURBANCE POTENTIALLY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES THOUGH...AS THE GFS IS SHOWING A
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE RESULT IS
THE GFS DEPICTING MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL MENTION SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS THIS IS WHERE
THE GFS IS INDICATING THE BEST POTENTIAL BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE
DISTURBANCE.

SUNDAY MAY END UP DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BASED ON THE ZONAL FLOW AND ANY POSSIBLE WEAK ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCE THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES...FOG WILL BE
LIKELY AT MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS INTO THIS MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS FOR IFR INCLUDE KPSF/KGFL WHICH ARE TYPICAL FOR RADIATION
FOG. KPSF ALREADY LIFR AND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH 12Z. VSBYS JUST
STARTING TO DROP TO MVFR LEVELS AT KGFL AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE TO IFR STARTING BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. DECIDED TO MENTION A
TEMPO AT KPOU FOR IFR BETWEEN 08Z-10Z SINCE RAINFALL OCCURRED
YESTERDAY RESULTING IN MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BREAKS IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS LOWER HERE THAN AT
KGFL/KPSF. WILL MENTION MVFR CONDITIONS AT KALB...ALTHOUGH FOG WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE VICINITY ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER SO WILL ADD BCFG.

FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12Z-13Z AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED
WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE
COVERAGE WILL MENTION VCSH FOR NOW. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING S-SW AROUND 5 KTS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. AREAS FG.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY ON AND MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW OR MID 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ONLY LOWER TO BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT
TODAY...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT TODAY INTO TUESDAY...EXCEPT STRONGER WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/WASULA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KBTV 270824
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
424 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER TO START THE WEEK WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS PRODUCING SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAY CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 424 AM EDT MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING IN
LIGHT WIND FLOW, PERSISTING OUT OF THE NW ALOFT WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE HEATING
WILL CREATE SOME INSTABILITY, ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO THE MID TEENS AND RESULT IN MAX
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 424 AM EDT MONDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL STAY
ENTRENCHED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES
AS A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC.

COME TUESDAY MORNING, INCREASING WIND SHEAR WITH A STRONG JET AT
MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL AID IN CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARMER WILL PROVIDE SBCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1000J/KG GENERALLY
OVER NE PORTIONS OF VERMONT. NAM AND BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BETWEEN 9000-11000 FT OVER PORTIONS OF
VERMONT. HAVE INCLUDED WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE GREENS AND AREAS EAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED JET LINGERS INTO
TUESDAY EVENING, STRENGTHENING AND THEN SHIFTING EAST OF VERMONT
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WHICH WILL PROLONG THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASING, HELPING TO SQUELCH
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
AS SURFACE HEATING WILL STILL SEE MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO
LOW 90S AND SOME LINGERING WIND SHEAR MAY EXIST FROM DEPARTING
JET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...MAIN ITEM IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CONTINUES TO BE THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AIR MASS WILL
DESTABILIZE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS RESIDE WELL INTO THE 60S. EVEN
THOUGH MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE LIFTING UP INTO
CANADA...SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT LIFT WILL OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE INCREASING
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STORMS TO BECOME
ORGANIZED AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE.
TIMING OF THE FRONT AT THIS TIME SUGGEST THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO EXPERIENCE THESE ORGANIZED
STORMS. DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AND WILL INCLUDE
THIS IDEA IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR RETURNS TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. WEAK
TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND THERE WILL BE A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...EXPECT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THROUGH ABOUT 13Z
AT MOST TAF SITES...KRUT BEING THE ONE EXCEPTION. THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL CREATE IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...THEN LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES FROM 13Z
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST...SO HAVE MENTIONED VCSH BETWEEN 20Z AND 01Z FOR ALL BUT
KMSS. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT
SPEEDS UNDER 10 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THUS EXPECT IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE BECOMING VFR FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY AND FIRST HALF OF EACH NIGHT. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY AND DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST. ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS. NO STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. NO
STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 270824
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
424 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER TO START THE WEEK WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS PRODUCING SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAY CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 424 AM EDT MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING IN
LIGHT WIND FLOW, PERSISTING OUT OF THE NW ALOFT WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE HEATING
WILL CREATE SOME INSTABILITY, ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO THE MID TEENS AND RESULT IN MAX
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 424 AM EDT MONDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL STAY
ENTRENCHED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES
AS A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC.

COME TUESDAY MORNING, INCREASING WIND SHEAR WITH A STRONG JET AT
MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL AID IN CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARMER WILL PROVIDE SBCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1000J/KG GENERALLY
OVER NE PORTIONS OF VERMONT. NAM AND BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BETWEEN 9000-11000 FT OVER PORTIONS OF
VERMONT. HAVE INCLUDED WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE GREENS AND AREAS EAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED JET LINGERS INTO
TUESDAY EVENING, STRENGTHENING AND THEN SHIFTING EAST OF VERMONT
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WHICH WILL PROLONG THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASING, HELPING TO SQUELCH
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
AS SURFACE HEATING WILL STILL SEE MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO
LOW 90S AND SOME LINGERING WIND SHEAR MAY EXIST FROM DEPARTING
JET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...MAIN ITEM IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CONTINUES TO BE THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AIR MASS WILL
DESTABILIZE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS RESIDE WELL INTO THE 60S. EVEN
THOUGH MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE LIFTING UP INTO
CANADA...SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT LIFT WILL OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE INCREASING
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STORMS TO BECOME
ORGANIZED AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE.
TIMING OF THE FRONT AT THIS TIME SUGGEST THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
POINTS EAST HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO EXPERIENCE THESE ORGANIZED
STORMS. DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AND WILL INCLUDE
THIS IDEA IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR RETURNS TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. WEAK
TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND THERE WILL BE A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...EXPECT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THROUGH ABOUT 13Z
AT MOST TAF SITES...KRUT BEING THE ONE EXCEPTION. THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL CREATE IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...THEN LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES FROM 13Z
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST...SO HAVE MENTIONED VCSH BETWEEN 20Z AND 01Z FOR ALL BUT
KMSS. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT
SPEEDS UNDER 10 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THUS EXPECT IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE BECOMING VFR FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY AND FIRST HALF OF EACH NIGHT. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY AND DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST. ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS. NO STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. NO
STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 270608
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
208 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TODAY WILL BE DYING
DOWN FOLLOWING SUNSET. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT MONDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. OTHERWISE AREAS OF
FOG ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND WILL PERSIST INTO
THE MID MORNING HOURS. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF FORECAST AREA LATE
THIS EVENING...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN. MAIN THREAT
WITH THUNDERSTORMS IS HEAVY RAIN DUE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF CELLS.
DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES WITH RAIN STILL
FALLING ACROSS EASTERN ADDISON COUNTY PROMPTED ISSUANCE OF FLASH
FLOOD WARNING. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WIND DOWN AS WE REACH MIDNIGHT
WITH DRY CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AREAWIDE
LATER TONIGHT. ALREADY SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING...EXPECT IT
BECOME MORE PREVALENT OVERNIGHT. STILL LOOKING AT MIN TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED
WELL TO OUR NORTH IN NORTHERN QUEBEC. 850 WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK
SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SOME POP UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON.
DID GO A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 EACH DAY. THE NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE MILD WITH TEMPS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...WARMEST STRETCH OF WEATHER OF THE
SEASON THEN OCCURS BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS DEEP LAYER
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS AND EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A SURFACE FRONT TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS PARENT CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH. GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH THIS
FEATURE, AND WILL LEAN TOWARD MORE CONSISTENT AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER
UKMET/ECMWF/CANADIAN OUTPUT. WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND MODEST
SHEAR IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS, RUNNING IDEA OF A FEW STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE. CAN`T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED AIR MASS STORM HERE AND THERE DURING THE LATE/AFTERNOON
EARLY EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY EITHER, BUT GIVEN LACK OF A
LARGER-SCALE FORCING MECHANISM MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HIGHS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 87-92 RANGE ON WEDNESDAY, THEN 85 TO 90 ON
THURSDAY WITH OVERNIGHT AND MUGGY LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 65
TO 70 RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MAINLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY NEXT FRIDAY AS HIGHS SETTLE BACK IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S ON LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW. BY NEXT WEEKEND SOME
DISPARITY BETWEEN THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EURO OUTPUT IN REGARD TO
A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OR FRONT SAGGING INTO OUR REGION AND
SUBSEQUENT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. OF COURSE, THE GFS IS THE
FURTHEST SOUTH AND MOST ROBUST WITH COOL AIR PUSH FROM THE NORTH,
A KNOWN BIAS. GIVEN MID-SUMMER CLIMO WILL DOWNPLAY THIS SOLUTION
SOMEWHAT FOR NOW AND ADVERTISE ONLY A TOKEN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A
STRAY INSTABILITY SHOWER/STORM DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE 55 TO 65 RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...EXPECT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THROUGH ABOUT 13Z
AT MOST TAF SITES...KRUT BEING THE ONE EXCEPTION. THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL CREATE IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...THEN LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES FROM 13Z
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST...SO HAVE MENTIONED VCSH BETWEEN 20Z AND 01Z FOR ALL BUT
KMSS. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT
SPEEDS UNDER 10 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THUS EXPECT IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE BECOMING VFR FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY AND FIRST HALF OF EACH NIGHT. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY AND DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST. ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS. NO STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. NO
STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...EVENSON



000
FXUS61 KBTV 270608
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
208 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TODAY WILL BE DYING
DOWN FOLLOWING SUNSET. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT MONDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. OTHERWISE AREAS OF
FOG ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND WILL PERSIST INTO
THE MID MORNING HOURS. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF FORECAST AREA LATE
THIS EVENING...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN. MAIN THREAT
WITH THUNDERSTORMS IS HEAVY RAIN DUE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF CELLS.
DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES WITH RAIN STILL
FALLING ACROSS EASTERN ADDISON COUNTY PROMPTED ISSUANCE OF FLASH
FLOOD WARNING. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WIND DOWN AS WE REACH MIDNIGHT
WITH DRY CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AREAWIDE
LATER TONIGHT. ALREADY SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING...EXPECT IT
BECOME MORE PREVALENT OVERNIGHT. STILL LOOKING AT MIN TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED
WELL TO OUR NORTH IN NORTHERN QUEBEC. 850 WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK
SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SOME POP UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON.
DID GO A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 EACH DAY. THE NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE MILD WITH TEMPS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...WARMEST STRETCH OF WEATHER OF THE
SEASON THEN OCCURS BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS DEEP LAYER
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS AND EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A SURFACE FRONT TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS PARENT CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH. GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH THIS
FEATURE, AND WILL LEAN TOWARD MORE CONSISTENT AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER
UKMET/ECMWF/CANADIAN OUTPUT. WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND MODEST
SHEAR IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS, RUNNING IDEA OF A FEW STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE. CAN`T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED AIR MASS STORM HERE AND THERE DURING THE LATE/AFTERNOON
EARLY EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY EITHER, BUT GIVEN LACK OF A
LARGER-SCALE FORCING MECHANISM MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HIGHS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 87-92 RANGE ON WEDNESDAY, THEN 85 TO 90 ON
THURSDAY WITH OVERNIGHT AND MUGGY LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 65
TO 70 RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MAINLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY NEXT FRIDAY AS HIGHS SETTLE BACK IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S ON LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW. BY NEXT WEEKEND SOME
DISPARITY BETWEEN THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EURO OUTPUT IN REGARD TO
A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OR FRONT SAGGING INTO OUR REGION AND
SUBSEQUENT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. OF COURSE, THE GFS IS THE
FURTHEST SOUTH AND MOST ROBUST WITH COOL AIR PUSH FROM THE NORTH,
A KNOWN BIAS. GIVEN MID-SUMMER CLIMO WILL DOWNPLAY THIS SOLUTION
SOMEWHAT FOR NOW AND ADVERTISE ONLY A TOKEN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A
STRAY INSTABILITY SHOWER/STORM DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE 55 TO 65 RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...EXPECT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THROUGH ABOUT 13Z
AT MOST TAF SITES...KRUT BEING THE ONE EXCEPTION. THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL CREATE IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...THEN LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES FROM 13Z
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST...SO HAVE MENTIONED VCSH BETWEEN 20Z AND 01Z FOR ALL BUT
KMSS. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT
SPEEDS UNDER 10 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THUS EXPECT IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE BECOMING VFR FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY AND FIRST HALF OF EACH NIGHT. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY AND DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST. ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS. NO STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. NO
STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...EVENSON




000
FXUS61 KBTV 270608
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
208 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TODAY WILL BE DYING
DOWN FOLLOWING SUNSET. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT MONDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. OTHERWISE AREAS OF
FOG ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND WILL PERSIST INTO
THE MID MORNING HOURS. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF FORECAST AREA LATE
THIS EVENING...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN. MAIN THREAT
WITH THUNDERSTORMS IS HEAVY RAIN DUE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF CELLS.
DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES WITH RAIN STILL
FALLING ACROSS EASTERN ADDISON COUNTY PROMPTED ISSUANCE OF FLASH
FLOOD WARNING. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WIND DOWN AS WE REACH MIDNIGHT
WITH DRY CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AREAWIDE
LATER TONIGHT. ALREADY SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING...EXPECT IT
BECOME MORE PREVALENT OVERNIGHT. STILL LOOKING AT MIN TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED
WELL TO OUR NORTH IN NORTHERN QUEBEC. 850 WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK
SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SOME POP UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON.
DID GO A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 EACH DAY. THE NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE MILD WITH TEMPS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...WARMEST STRETCH OF WEATHER OF THE
SEASON THEN OCCURS BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS DEEP LAYER
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS AND EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A SURFACE FRONT TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS PARENT CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH. GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH THIS
FEATURE, AND WILL LEAN TOWARD MORE CONSISTENT AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER
UKMET/ECMWF/CANADIAN OUTPUT. WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND MODEST
SHEAR IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS, RUNNING IDEA OF A FEW STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE. CAN`T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED AIR MASS STORM HERE AND THERE DURING THE LATE/AFTERNOON
EARLY EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY EITHER, BUT GIVEN LACK OF A
LARGER-SCALE FORCING MECHANISM MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HIGHS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 87-92 RANGE ON WEDNESDAY, THEN 85 TO 90 ON
THURSDAY WITH OVERNIGHT AND MUGGY LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 65
TO 70 RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MAINLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY NEXT FRIDAY AS HIGHS SETTLE BACK IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S ON LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW. BY NEXT WEEKEND SOME
DISPARITY BETWEEN THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EURO OUTPUT IN REGARD TO
A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OR FRONT SAGGING INTO OUR REGION AND
SUBSEQUENT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. OF COURSE, THE GFS IS THE
FURTHEST SOUTH AND MOST ROBUST WITH COOL AIR PUSH FROM THE NORTH,
A KNOWN BIAS. GIVEN MID-SUMMER CLIMO WILL DOWNPLAY THIS SOLUTION
SOMEWHAT FOR NOW AND ADVERTISE ONLY A TOKEN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A
STRAY INSTABILITY SHOWER/STORM DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE 55 TO 65 RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...EXPECT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THROUGH ABOUT 13Z
AT MOST TAF SITES...KRUT BEING THE ONE EXCEPTION. THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL CREATE IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...THEN LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES FROM 13Z
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST...SO HAVE MENTIONED VCSH BETWEEN 20Z AND 01Z FOR ALL BUT
KMSS. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT
SPEEDS UNDER 10 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THUS EXPECT IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE BECOMING VFR FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY AND FIRST HALF OF EACH NIGHT. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY AND DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST. ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS. NO STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. NO
STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...EVENSON




000
FXUS61 KALY 270552
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
152 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FOR THE OVERNIGHT EXPECT MILD AND SOMEWHAT MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH
PATCHY FOG. A WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...MAINLY
FROM MIDDAY ON. THEN IT WILL TURN QUITE HOT AS WE HEAD INTO MID
WEEK PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT...ALL SHOWERS/TSTMS ARENOW SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND WILL FORECAST DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH POPS
14 PERCENT OR LESS. HAVE ALSO REDUCED THE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND ADJUSTED HOURLY AND MIN TEMPS TO REFLECT
CURRENT CONDITIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S.

MONDAY...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA...AND NJ. NW FLOW CONTINUES
ALOFT. WEAK IMPULSES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE DIFFUSE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING SBCAPES TO BE MAINLY IN THE 500-1500 J/KG
RANGE WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVER THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. MONDAY SHOULD NOT BE A
WASHOUT...BUT A COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NW FLOW
ALOFT...AND THE BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/TSRAS. THE HIGHER
POPS WERE USED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. H850 TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE +15C TO +17C RANGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE HEAT BUILDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE REGION IS BETWEEN A
SHARPENING 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GRTLKS AND A SHARPENING
TROF OVER THE MARITIMES AS A 500HPA CUTOFF DIVES SE FM HUDSON`S
BAY TO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE. THE INITIAL RESPONSE IS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE FORMS/STRENGTHENS OVER THE GRTLKS INCRG SUBSIDENCE...AND
SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLC COAST...AND WAA INCREASES. WHILE THE
SUBSIDENCE WILL PRETTY MUCH DOMINATE...ISOLD CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
ASSOC WITH SHORT WVS DIVING DOWN THE WEST PERIPHERY OF THE CUT
OFF TO OUR EAST...WAA...DIURNAL HEATING MAINLY OVER ELEVATED TRRN
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

OTHERWISE TD WILL BE IN THE 60S...MAX TEMPS TUES WILL BE ARND 90
IN MANY AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER HIR TRRN. WED WILL TAKE THESE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S IN MOST AREAS. MINS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR
THE MOST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY THURSDAY THE 500 HPA RIDGE HAS BECOME QUITE SHARP FM FCA INTO
LABRADOR...AS A CUT OFF RIDES UP THE WEST SIDE OF IT INTO HUD
BAY...WITH A TRAILING CDFNT. SFC PREFRONTAL TROF PUSHES ACROSS
THE RGN EARLY THU...WITH CDFNT CLEARING THE RGN IN THE AFTN. THIS
CDFNT IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS...AND MUCH DRIER AIR IS MVNG INTO
FCA BY MID DAY. DYNAMICS...BOUNDARY...AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NOT
WELL ALIGNED ATTM...SO ITS A SCT TSTM DAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER INTO RGN...WITH MAX TEMPS NR 90
STILL THU AS TD GOES FROM MID TO LOW 60S. NOT MUCH OF A FRONT.

THUR NT INTO WEEKEND 500HPA FLOW FLATTENS BCMG ZONAL. SFC HIGH
BUILDS FM OHIO VLY INTO RGN THU NT INTO FRI. TEMPS STILL REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES ABV NORMALS WITH TD STILL IN THE 60S. SAT ANOTHER
WEAK CDFNT WILL CROSS THE RGN...BUT DYNAMICS AND JET REMAIN WELL N
OF RGN...ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO TRIGGER ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS.
OTHERWISE A PS-MS START TO THE WEEKEND WITH JUST A CHC TSTM SAT.
WILL POPULATE WITH WPC AS CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT REMAINS BTWN
ECMWF/GFS/WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES...FOG WILL BE
LIKELY AT MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS INTO THIS MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS FOR IFR INCLUDE KPSF/KGFL WHICH ARE TYPICAL FOR RADIATION
FOG. KPSF ALREADY LIFR AND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH 12Z. VSBYS JUST
STARTING TO DROP TO MVFR LEVELS AT KGFL AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE TO IFR STARTING BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. DECIDED TO MENTION A
TEMPO AT KPOU FOR IFR BETWEEN 08Z-10Z SINCE RAINFALL OCCURRED
YESTERDAY RESULTING IN MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BREAKS IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS LOWER HERE THAN AT
KGFL/KPSF. WILL MENTION MVFR CONDITIONS AT KALB...ALTHOUGH FOG WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE VICINITY ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER SO WILL ADD BCFG.

FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12Z-13Z AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED
WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE
COVERAGE WILL MENTION VCSH FOR NOW. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING S-SW AROUND 5 KTS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. AREAS FG.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVNG AS
A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NEW YORK. MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DRIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES...DAYTIME HEATING AND ABUNDANT
HUMIDITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...AND
ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL BE MAINLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY...AND LOWER THE HUMIDITY A LITTLE.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT IN
THE PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY INTO TUESDAY EXCEPT IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THIS EVENING INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TRRN...IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED WITHIN BANK RISES...AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KALY 270552
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
152 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FOR THE OVERNIGHT EXPECT MILD AND SOMEWHAT MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH
PATCHY FOG. A WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...MAINLY
FROM MIDDAY ON. THEN IT WILL TURN QUITE HOT AS WE HEAD INTO MID
WEEK PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT...ALL SHOWERS/TSTMS ARENOW SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND WILL FORECAST DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH POPS
14 PERCENT OR LESS. HAVE ALSO REDUCED THE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND ADJUSTED HOURLY AND MIN TEMPS TO REFLECT
CURRENT CONDITIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S.

MONDAY...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA...AND NJ. NW FLOW CONTINUES
ALOFT. WEAK IMPULSES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE DIFFUSE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING SBCAPES TO BE MAINLY IN THE 500-1500 J/KG
RANGE WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVER THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. MONDAY SHOULD NOT BE A
WASHOUT...BUT A COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NW FLOW
ALOFT...AND THE BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/TSRAS. THE HIGHER
POPS WERE USED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. H850 TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE +15C TO +17C RANGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE HEAT BUILDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE REGION IS BETWEEN A
SHARPENING 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GRTLKS AND A SHARPENING
TROF OVER THE MARITIMES AS A 500HPA CUTOFF DIVES SE FM HUDSON`S
BAY TO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE. THE INITIAL RESPONSE IS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE FORMS/STRENGTHENS OVER THE GRTLKS INCRG SUBSIDENCE...AND
SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLC COAST...AND WAA INCREASES. WHILE THE
SUBSIDENCE WILL PRETTY MUCH DOMINATE...ISOLD CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
ASSOC WITH SHORT WVS DIVING DOWN THE WEST PERIPHERY OF THE CUT
OFF TO OUR EAST...WAA...DIURNAL HEATING MAINLY OVER ELEVATED TRRN
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

OTHERWISE TD WILL BE IN THE 60S...MAX TEMPS TUES WILL BE ARND 90
IN MANY AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER HIR TRRN. WED WILL TAKE THESE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S IN MOST AREAS. MINS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR
THE MOST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY THURSDAY THE 500 HPA RIDGE HAS BECOME QUITE SHARP FM FCA INTO
LABRADOR...AS A CUT OFF RIDES UP THE WEST SIDE OF IT INTO HUD
BAY...WITH A TRAILING CDFNT. SFC PREFRONTAL TROF PUSHES ACROSS
THE RGN EARLY THU...WITH CDFNT CLEARING THE RGN IN THE AFTN. THIS
CDFNT IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS...AND MUCH DRIER AIR IS MVNG INTO
FCA BY MID DAY. DYNAMICS...BOUNDARY...AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NOT
WELL ALIGNED ATTM...SO ITS A SCT TSTM DAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER INTO RGN...WITH MAX TEMPS NR 90
STILL THU AS TD GOES FROM MID TO LOW 60S. NOT MUCH OF A FRONT.

THUR NT INTO WEEKEND 500HPA FLOW FLATTENS BCMG ZONAL. SFC HIGH
BUILDS FM OHIO VLY INTO RGN THU NT INTO FRI. TEMPS STILL REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES ABV NORMALS WITH TD STILL IN THE 60S. SAT ANOTHER
WEAK CDFNT WILL CROSS THE RGN...BUT DYNAMICS AND JET REMAIN WELL N
OF RGN...ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO TRIGGER ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS.
OTHERWISE A PS-MS START TO THE WEEKEND WITH JUST A CHC TSTM SAT.
WILL POPULATE WITH WPC AS CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT REMAINS BTWN
ECMWF/GFS/WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES...FOG WILL BE
LIKELY AT MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS INTO THIS MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS FOR IFR INCLUDE KPSF/KGFL WHICH ARE TYPICAL FOR RADIATION
FOG. KPSF ALREADY LIFR AND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH 12Z. VSBYS JUST
STARTING TO DROP TO MVFR LEVELS AT KGFL AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE TO IFR STARTING BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. DECIDED TO MENTION A
TEMPO AT KPOU FOR IFR BETWEEN 08Z-10Z SINCE RAINFALL OCCURRED
YESTERDAY RESULTING IN MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BREAKS IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS LOWER HERE THAN AT
KGFL/KPSF. WILL MENTION MVFR CONDITIONS AT KALB...ALTHOUGH FOG WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE VICINITY ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER SO WILL ADD BCFG.

FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12Z-13Z AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED
WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE
COVERAGE WILL MENTION VCSH FOR NOW. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING S-SW AROUND 5 KTS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. AREAS FG.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVNG AS
A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NEW YORK. MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DRIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES...DAYTIME HEATING AND ABUNDANT
HUMIDITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...AND
ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL BE MAINLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY...AND LOWER THE HUMIDITY A LITTLE.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT IN
THE PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY INTO TUESDAY EXCEPT IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THIS EVENING INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TRRN...IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED WITHIN BANK RISES...AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 270552
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
152 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FOR THE OVERNIGHT EXPECT MILD AND SOMEWHAT MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH
PATCHY FOG. A WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...MAINLY
FROM MIDDAY ON. THEN IT WILL TURN QUITE HOT AS WE HEAD INTO MID
WEEK PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT...ALL SHOWERS/TSTMS ARENOW SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND WILL FORECAST DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH POPS
14 PERCENT OR LESS. HAVE ALSO REDUCED THE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND ADJUSTED HOURLY AND MIN TEMPS TO REFLECT
CURRENT CONDITIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S.

MONDAY...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA...AND NJ. NW FLOW CONTINUES
ALOFT. WEAK IMPULSES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE DIFFUSE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING SBCAPES TO BE MAINLY IN THE 500-1500 J/KG
RANGE WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVER THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. MONDAY SHOULD NOT BE A
WASHOUT...BUT A COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NW FLOW
ALOFT...AND THE BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/TSRAS. THE HIGHER
POPS WERE USED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. H850 TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE +15C TO +17C RANGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE HEAT BUILDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE REGION IS BETWEEN A
SHARPENING 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GRTLKS AND A SHARPENING
TROF OVER THE MARITIMES AS A 500HPA CUTOFF DIVES SE FM HUDSON`S
BAY TO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE. THE INITIAL RESPONSE IS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE FORMS/STRENGTHENS OVER THE GRTLKS INCRG SUBSIDENCE...AND
SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLC COAST...AND WAA INCREASES. WHILE THE
SUBSIDENCE WILL PRETTY MUCH DOMINATE...ISOLD CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
ASSOC WITH SHORT WVS DIVING DOWN THE WEST PERIPHERY OF THE CUT
OFF TO OUR EAST...WAA...DIURNAL HEATING MAINLY OVER ELEVATED TRRN
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

OTHERWISE TD WILL BE IN THE 60S...MAX TEMPS TUES WILL BE ARND 90
IN MANY AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER HIR TRRN. WED WILL TAKE THESE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S IN MOST AREAS. MINS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR
THE MOST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY THURSDAY THE 500 HPA RIDGE HAS BECOME QUITE SHARP FM FCA INTO
LABRADOR...AS A CUT OFF RIDES UP THE WEST SIDE OF IT INTO HUD
BAY...WITH A TRAILING CDFNT. SFC PREFRONTAL TROF PUSHES ACROSS
THE RGN EARLY THU...WITH CDFNT CLEARING THE RGN IN THE AFTN. THIS
CDFNT IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS...AND MUCH DRIER AIR IS MVNG INTO
FCA BY MID DAY. DYNAMICS...BOUNDARY...AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NOT
WELL ALIGNED ATTM...SO ITS A SCT TSTM DAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER INTO RGN...WITH MAX TEMPS NR 90
STILL THU AS TD GOES FROM MID TO LOW 60S. NOT MUCH OF A FRONT.

THUR NT INTO WEEKEND 500HPA FLOW FLATTENS BCMG ZONAL. SFC HIGH
BUILDS FM OHIO VLY INTO RGN THU NT INTO FRI. TEMPS STILL REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES ABV NORMALS WITH TD STILL IN THE 60S. SAT ANOTHER
WEAK CDFNT WILL CROSS THE RGN...BUT DYNAMICS AND JET REMAIN WELL N
OF RGN...ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO TRIGGER ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS.
OTHERWISE A PS-MS START TO THE WEEKEND WITH JUST A CHC TSTM SAT.
WILL POPULATE WITH WPC AS CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT REMAINS BTWN
ECMWF/GFS/WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES...FOG WILL BE
LIKELY AT MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS INTO THIS MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS FOR IFR INCLUDE KPSF/KGFL WHICH ARE TYPICAL FOR RADIATION
FOG. KPSF ALREADY LIFR AND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH 12Z. VSBYS JUST
STARTING TO DROP TO MVFR LEVELS AT KGFL AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE TO IFR STARTING BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. DECIDED TO MENTION A
TEMPO AT KPOU FOR IFR BETWEEN 08Z-10Z SINCE RAINFALL OCCURRED
YESTERDAY RESULTING IN MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BREAKS IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS LOWER HERE THAN AT
KGFL/KPSF. WILL MENTION MVFR CONDITIONS AT KALB...ALTHOUGH FOG WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE VICINITY ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER SO WILL ADD BCFG.

FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12Z-13Z AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED
WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE
COVERAGE WILL MENTION VCSH FOR NOW. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING S-SW AROUND 5 KTS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. AREAS FG.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVNG AS
A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NEW YORK. MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DRIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES...DAYTIME HEATING AND ABUNDANT
HUMIDITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...AND
ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL BE MAINLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY...AND LOWER THE HUMIDITY A LITTLE.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT IN
THE PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY INTO TUESDAY EXCEPT IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THIS EVENING INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TRRN...IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED WITHIN BANK RISES...AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 270552
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
152 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FOR THE OVERNIGHT EXPECT MILD AND SOMEWHAT MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH
PATCHY FOG. A WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...MAINLY
FROM MIDDAY ON. THEN IT WILL TURN QUITE HOT AS WE HEAD INTO MID
WEEK PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT...ALL SHOWERS/TSTMS ARENOW SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND WILL FORECAST DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH POPS
14 PERCENT OR LESS. HAVE ALSO REDUCED THE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND ADJUSTED HOURLY AND MIN TEMPS TO REFLECT
CURRENT CONDITIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S.

MONDAY...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA...AND NJ. NW FLOW CONTINUES
ALOFT. WEAK IMPULSES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE DIFFUSE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING SBCAPES TO BE MAINLY IN THE 500-1500 J/KG
RANGE WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVER THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. MONDAY SHOULD NOT BE A
WASHOUT...BUT A COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NW FLOW
ALOFT...AND THE BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/TSRAS. THE HIGHER
POPS WERE USED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. H850 TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE +15C TO +17C RANGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE HEAT BUILDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE REGION IS BETWEEN A
SHARPENING 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GRTLKS AND A SHARPENING
TROF OVER THE MARITIMES AS A 500HPA CUTOFF DIVES SE FM HUDSON`S
BAY TO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE. THE INITIAL RESPONSE IS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE FORMS/STRENGTHENS OVER THE GRTLKS INCRG SUBSIDENCE...AND
SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLC COAST...AND WAA INCREASES. WHILE THE
SUBSIDENCE WILL PRETTY MUCH DOMINATE...ISOLD CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
ASSOC WITH SHORT WVS DIVING DOWN THE WEST PERIPHERY OF THE CUT
OFF TO OUR EAST...WAA...DIURNAL HEATING MAINLY OVER ELEVATED TRRN
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

OTHERWISE TD WILL BE IN THE 60S...MAX TEMPS TUES WILL BE ARND 90
IN MANY AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER HIR TRRN. WED WILL TAKE THESE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S IN MOST AREAS. MINS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR
THE MOST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY THURSDAY THE 500 HPA RIDGE HAS BECOME QUITE SHARP FM FCA INTO
LABRADOR...AS A CUT OFF RIDES UP THE WEST SIDE OF IT INTO HUD
BAY...WITH A TRAILING CDFNT. SFC PREFRONTAL TROF PUSHES ACROSS
THE RGN EARLY THU...WITH CDFNT CLEARING THE RGN IN THE AFTN. THIS
CDFNT IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS...AND MUCH DRIER AIR IS MVNG INTO
FCA BY MID DAY. DYNAMICS...BOUNDARY...AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NOT
WELL ALIGNED ATTM...SO ITS A SCT TSTM DAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER INTO RGN...WITH MAX TEMPS NR 90
STILL THU AS TD GOES FROM MID TO LOW 60S. NOT MUCH OF A FRONT.

THUR NT INTO WEEKEND 500HPA FLOW FLATTENS BCMG ZONAL. SFC HIGH
BUILDS FM OHIO VLY INTO RGN THU NT INTO FRI. TEMPS STILL REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES ABV NORMALS WITH TD STILL IN THE 60S. SAT ANOTHER
WEAK CDFNT WILL CROSS THE RGN...BUT DYNAMICS AND JET REMAIN WELL N
OF RGN...ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO TRIGGER ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS.
OTHERWISE A PS-MS START TO THE WEEKEND WITH JUST A CHC TSTM SAT.
WILL POPULATE WITH WPC AS CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT REMAINS BTWN
ECMWF/GFS/WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES...FOG WILL BE
LIKELY AT MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS INTO THIS MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS FOR IFR INCLUDE KPSF/KGFL WHICH ARE TYPICAL FOR RADIATION
FOG. KPSF ALREADY LIFR AND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH 12Z. VSBYS JUST
STARTING TO DROP TO MVFR LEVELS AT KGFL AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE TO IFR STARTING BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. DECIDED TO MENTION A
TEMPO AT KPOU FOR IFR BETWEEN 08Z-10Z SINCE RAINFALL OCCURRED
YESTERDAY RESULTING IN MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BREAKS IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS LOWER HERE THAN AT
KGFL/KPSF. WILL MENTION MVFR CONDITIONS AT KALB...ALTHOUGH FOG WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE VICINITY ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER SO WILL ADD BCFG.

FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12Z-13Z AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED
WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE
COVERAGE WILL MENTION VCSH FOR NOW. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING S-SW AROUND 5 KTS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. AREAS FG.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVNG AS
A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NEW YORK. MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DRIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES...DAYTIME HEATING AND ABUNDANT
HUMIDITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...AND
ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL BE MAINLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY...AND LOWER THE HUMIDITY A LITTLE.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT IN
THE PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY INTO TUESDAY EXCEPT IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THIS EVENING INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TRRN...IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED WITHIN BANK RISES...AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 270552
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
152 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FOR THE OVERNIGHT EXPECT MILD AND SOMEWHAT MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH
PATCHY FOG. A WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...MAINLY
FROM MIDDAY ON. THEN IT WILL TURN QUITE HOT AS WE HEAD INTO MID
WEEK PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT...ALL SHOWERS/TSTMS ARENOW SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND WILL FORECAST DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH POPS
14 PERCENT OR LESS. HAVE ALSO REDUCED THE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND ADJUSTED HOURLY AND MIN TEMPS TO REFLECT
CURRENT CONDITIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S.

MONDAY...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA...AND NJ. NW FLOW CONTINUES
ALOFT. WEAK IMPULSES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE DIFFUSE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING SBCAPES TO BE MAINLY IN THE 500-1500 J/KG
RANGE WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVER THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. MONDAY SHOULD NOT BE A
WASHOUT...BUT A COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NW FLOW
ALOFT...AND THE BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/TSRAS. THE HIGHER
POPS WERE USED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. H850 TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE +15C TO +17C RANGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE HEAT BUILDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE REGION IS BETWEEN A
SHARPENING 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GRTLKS AND A SHARPENING
TROF OVER THE MARITIMES AS A 500HPA CUTOFF DIVES SE FM HUDSON`S
BAY TO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE. THE INITIAL RESPONSE IS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE FORMS/STRENGTHENS OVER THE GRTLKS INCRG SUBSIDENCE...AND
SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLC COAST...AND WAA INCREASES. WHILE THE
SUBSIDENCE WILL PRETTY MUCH DOMINATE...ISOLD CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
ASSOC WITH SHORT WVS DIVING DOWN THE WEST PERIPHERY OF THE CUT
OFF TO OUR EAST...WAA...DIURNAL HEATING MAINLY OVER ELEVATED TRRN
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

OTHERWISE TD WILL BE IN THE 60S...MAX TEMPS TUES WILL BE ARND 90
IN MANY AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER HIR TRRN. WED WILL TAKE THESE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S IN MOST AREAS. MINS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR
THE MOST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY THURSDAY THE 500 HPA RIDGE HAS BECOME QUITE SHARP FM FCA INTO
LABRADOR...AS A CUT OFF RIDES UP THE WEST SIDE OF IT INTO HUD
BAY...WITH A TRAILING CDFNT. SFC PREFRONTAL TROF PUSHES ACROSS
THE RGN EARLY THU...WITH CDFNT CLEARING THE RGN IN THE AFTN. THIS
CDFNT IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS...AND MUCH DRIER AIR IS MVNG INTO
FCA BY MID DAY. DYNAMICS...BOUNDARY...AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NOT
WELL ALIGNED ATTM...SO ITS A SCT TSTM DAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER INTO RGN...WITH MAX TEMPS NR 90
STILL THU AS TD GOES FROM MID TO LOW 60S. NOT MUCH OF A FRONT.

THUR NT INTO WEEKEND 500HPA FLOW FLATTENS BCMG ZONAL. SFC HIGH
BUILDS FM OHIO VLY INTO RGN THU NT INTO FRI. TEMPS STILL REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES ABV NORMALS WITH TD STILL IN THE 60S. SAT ANOTHER
WEAK CDFNT WILL CROSS THE RGN...BUT DYNAMICS AND JET REMAIN WELL N
OF RGN...ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO TRIGGER ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS.
OTHERWISE A PS-MS START TO THE WEEKEND WITH JUST A CHC TSTM SAT.
WILL POPULATE WITH WPC AS CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT REMAINS BTWN
ECMWF/GFS/WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES...FOG WILL BE
LIKELY AT MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS INTO THIS MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS FOR IFR INCLUDE KPSF/KGFL WHICH ARE TYPICAL FOR RADIATION
FOG. KPSF ALREADY LIFR AND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH 12Z. VSBYS JUST
STARTING TO DROP TO MVFR LEVELS AT KGFL AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE TO IFR STARTING BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. DECIDED TO MENTION A
TEMPO AT KPOU FOR IFR BETWEEN 08Z-10Z SINCE RAINFALL OCCURRED
YESTERDAY RESULTING IN MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BREAKS IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS LOWER HERE THAN AT
KGFL/KPSF. WILL MENTION MVFR CONDITIONS AT KALB...ALTHOUGH FOG WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE VICINITY ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER SO WILL ADD BCFG.

FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12Z-13Z AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED
WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE
COVERAGE WILL MENTION VCSH FOR NOW. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING S-SW AROUND 5 KTS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. AREAS FG.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVNG AS
A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NEW YORK. MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DRIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES...DAYTIME HEATING AND ABUNDANT
HUMIDITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...AND
ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL BE MAINLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY...AND LOWER THE HUMIDITY A LITTLE.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT IN
THE PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY INTO TUESDAY EXCEPT IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THIS EVENING INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TRRN...IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED WITHIN BANK RISES...AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 270552
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
152 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FOR THE OVERNIGHT EXPECT MILD AND SOMEWHAT MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH
PATCHY FOG. A WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...MAINLY
FROM MIDDAY ON. THEN IT WILL TURN QUITE HOT AS WE HEAD INTO MID
WEEK PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT...ALL SHOWERS/TSTMS ARENOW SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND WILL FORECAST DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH POPS
14 PERCENT OR LESS. HAVE ALSO REDUCED THE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND ADJUSTED HOURLY AND MIN TEMPS TO REFLECT
CURRENT CONDITIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S.

MONDAY...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA...AND NJ. NW FLOW CONTINUES
ALOFT. WEAK IMPULSES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE DIFFUSE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING SBCAPES TO BE MAINLY IN THE 500-1500 J/KG
RANGE WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVER THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. MONDAY SHOULD NOT BE A
WASHOUT...BUT A COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NW FLOW
ALOFT...AND THE BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/TSRAS. THE HIGHER
POPS WERE USED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. H850 TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE +15C TO +17C RANGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE HEAT BUILDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE REGION IS BETWEEN A
SHARPENING 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GRTLKS AND A SHARPENING
TROF OVER THE MARITIMES AS A 500HPA CUTOFF DIVES SE FM HUDSON`S
BAY TO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE. THE INITIAL RESPONSE IS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE FORMS/STRENGTHENS OVER THE GRTLKS INCRG SUBSIDENCE...AND
SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLC COAST...AND WAA INCREASES. WHILE THE
SUBSIDENCE WILL PRETTY MUCH DOMINATE...ISOLD CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
ASSOC WITH SHORT WVS DIVING DOWN THE WEST PERIPHERY OF THE CUT
OFF TO OUR EAST...WAA...DIURNAL HEATING MAINLY OVER ELEVATED TRRN
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

OTHERWISE TD WILL BE IN THE 60S...MAX TEMPS TUES WILL BE ARND 90
IN MANY AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER HIR TRRN. WED WILL TAKE THESE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S IN MOST AREAS. MINS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR
THE MOST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY THURSDAY THE 500 HPA RIDGE HAS BECOME QUITE SHARP FM FCA INTO
LABRADOR...AS A CUT OFF RIDES UP THE WEST SIDE OF IT INTO HUD
BAY...WITH A TRAILING CDFNT. SFC PREFRONTAL TROF PUSHES ACROSS
THE RGN EARLY THU...WITH CDFNT CLEARING THE RGN IN THE AFTN. THIS
CDFNT IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS...AND MUCH DRIER AIR IS MVNG INTO
FCA BY MID DAY. DYNAMICS...BOUNDARY...AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NOT
WELL ALIGNED ATTM...SO ITS A SCT TSTM DAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER INTO RGN...WITH MAX TEMPS NR 90
STILL THU AS TD GOES FROM MID TO LOW 60S. NOT MUCH OF A FRONT.

THUR NT INTO WEEKEND 500HPA FLOW FLATTENS BCMG ZONAL. SFC HIGH
BUILDS FM OHIO VLY INTO RGN THU NT INTO FRI. TEMPS STILL REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES ABV NORMALS WITH TD STILL IN THE 60S. SAT ANOTHER
WEAK CDFNT WILL CROSS THE RGN...BUT DYNAMICS AND JET REMAIN WELL N
OF RGN...ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO TRIGGER ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS.
OTHERWISE A PS-MS START TO THE WEEKEND WITH JUST A CHC TSTM SAT.
WILL POPULATE WITH WPC AS CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT REMAINS BTWN
ECMWF/GFS/WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES...FOG WILL BE
LIKELY AT MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS INTO THIS MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS FOR IFR INCLUDE KPSF/KGFL WHICH ARE TYPICAL FOR RADIATION
FOG. KPSF ALREADY LIFR AND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH 12Z. VSBYS JUST
STARTING TO DROP TO MVFR LEVELS AT KGFL AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE TO IFR STARTING BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. DECIDED TO MENTION A
TEMPO AT KPOU FOR IFR BETWEEN 08Z-10Z SINCE RAINFALL OCCURRED
YESTERDAY RESULTING IN MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BREAKS IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS LOWER HERE THAN AT
KGFL/KPSF. WILL MENTION MVFR CONDITIONS AT KALB...ALTHOUGH FOG WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE VICINITY ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER SO WILL ADD BCFG.

FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12Z-13Z AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED
WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE
COVERAGE WILL MENTION VCSH FOR NOW. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING S-SW AROUND 5 KTS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. AREAS FG.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVNG AS
A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NEW YORK. MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DRIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES...DAYTIME HEATING AND ABUNDANT
HUMIDITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...AND
ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL BE MAINLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY...AND LOWER THE HUMIDITY A LITTLE.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT IN
THE PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY INTO TUESDAY EXCEPT IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THIS EVENING INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TRRN...IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED WITHIN BANK RISES...AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/GJM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/GJM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 270546
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
146 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID AIR MASS HAS SETTLED INTO THE REGION. A WEAK BOUNDARY
WILL KEEP RESIDUAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO
THE EVENING. MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
BUILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
DRIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCES...DAYTIME HEATING AND ABUNDANT HUMIDITY WILL TRIGGER
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...AND ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL BE MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY...AND LOWER HUMIDITY
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...FINALLY QUIET AROUND THE REGION (SAVE A SMALL
CELL OR TWO). WE BELIEVE THIS SHOULD BE THE TREND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS WE HAVE LOST THE HEATING OF THE DAY.
THERE WERE STILL A FEW MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES FLOATING AROUND
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION SO WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES
IN THIS AREA ONLY.

ALREADY HAVE SOME REPORTS OF FOG SO PATCHY FOG LOOKS FOR THE
NIGHT...PERHAPS BECOMING MORE EXTENSIVE TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT WILL
LET THE NIGHT CREW DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT TO UPGRADE FOG TO AREAS.
STILL THINK A BIT MORE STRATUS COULD FORM FURTHERS SOUTH
MITIGATING FOG A LITTLE IN THE MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.


EVEN THOUGH THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES NEEDED ADJUSTMENT AGAIN WE
LEFT MOST OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE. BASED ON CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S REGION WIDE...LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR...MID TO UPPER
60S...EXCEPT SOME LOWER 60S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS AND WHERE
HEAVIER RAIN FELL ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA...AND NJ. NW FLOW CONTINUES
ALOFT. WEAK IMPULSES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE DIFFUSE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING SBCAPES TO BE MAINLY IN THE 500-1500 J/KG
RANGE WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVER THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. MONDAY SHOULD NOT BE A
WASHOUT...BUT A COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NW FLOW
ALOFT...AND THE BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/TSRAS. THE HIGHER
POPS WERE USED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. H850 TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE +15C TO +17C RANGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE HEAT BUILDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE REGION IS BETWEEN A
SHARPENING 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GRTLKS AND A SHARPENING
TROF OVER THE MARITIMES AS A 500HPA CUTOFF DIVES SE FM HUDSON`S
BAY TO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE. THE INITIAL RESPONSE IS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE FORMS/STRENGTHENS OVER THE GRTLKS INCRG SUBSIDENCE...AND
SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLC COAST...AND WAA INCREASES. WHILE THE
SUBSIDENCE WILL PRETTY MUCH DOMINATE...ISOLD CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
ASSOC WITH SHORT WVS DIVING DOWN THE WEST PERIPHERY OF THE CUT
OFF TO OUR EAST...WAA...DIURNAL HEATING MAINLY OVER ELEVATED TRRN
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

OTHERWISE TD WILL BE IN THE 60S...MAX TEMPS TUES WILL BE ARND 90
IN MANY AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER HIR TRRN. WED WILL TAKE THESE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S IN MOST AREAS. MINS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR
THE MOST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY THURSDAY THE 500 HPA RIDGE HAS BECOME QUITE SHARP FM FCA INTO
LABRADOR...AS A CUT OFF RIDES UP THE WEST SIDE OF IT INTO HUD
BAY...WITH A TRAILING CDFNT. SFC PREFRONTAL TROF PUSHES ACROSS
THE RGN EARLY THU...WITH CDFNT CLEARING THE RGN IN THE AFTN. THIS
CDFNT IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS...AND MUCH DRIER AIR IS MVNG INTO
FCA BY MID DAY. DYNAMICS...BOUNDARY...AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NOT
WELL ALIGNED ATTM...SO ITS A SCT TSTM DAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER INTO RGN...WITH MAX TEMPS NR 90
STILL THU AS TD GOES FROM MID TO LOW 60S. NOT MUCH OF A FRONT.

THUR NT INTO WEEKEND 500HPA FLOW FLATTENS BCMG ZONAL. SFC HIGH
BUILDS FM OHIO VLY INTO RGN THU NT INTO FRI. TEMPS STILL REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES ABV NORMALS WITH TD STILL IN THE 60S. SAT ANOTHER
WEAK CDFNT WILL CROSS THE RGN...BUT DYNAMICS AND JET REMAIN WELL N
OF RGN...ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO TRIGGER ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS.
OTHERWISE A PS-MS START TO THE WEEKEND WITH JUST A CHC TSTM SAT.
WILL POPULATE WITH WPC AS CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT REMAINS BTWN
ECMWF/GFS/WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES...FOG WILL BE
LIKELY AT MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS INTO THIS MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS FOR IFR INCLUDE KPSF/KGFL WHICH ARE TYPICAL FOR RADIATION
FOG. KPSF ALREADY LIFR AND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH 12Z. VSBYS JUST
STARTING TO DROP TO MVFR LEVELS AT KGFL AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE TO IFR STARTING BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. DECIDED TO MENTION A
TEMPO AT KPOU FOR IFR BETWEEN 08Z-10Z SINCE RAINFALL OCCURRED
YESTERDAY RESULTING IN MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BREAKS IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS LOWER HERE THAN AT
KGFL/KPSF. WILL MENTION MVFR CONDITIONS AT KALB...ALTHOUGH FOG WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE VICINITY ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER SO WILL ADD BCFG.

FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12Z-13Z AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED
WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE
COVERAGE WILL MENTION VCSH FOR NOW. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING S-SW AROUND 5 KTS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. AREAS FG.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVNG AS
A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NEW YORK. MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DRIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES...DAYTIME HEATING AND ABUNDANT
HUMIDITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...AND
ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL BE MAINLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY...AND LOWER THE HUMIDITY A LITTLE.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT IN
THE PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY INTO TUESDAY EXCEPT IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THIS EVENING INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TRRN...IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED WITHIN BANK RISES...AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 270546
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
146 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID AIR MASS HAS SETTLED INTO THE REGION. A WEAK BOUNDARY
WILL KEEP RESIDUAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO
THE EVENING. MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
BUILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
DRIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCES...DAYTIME HEATING AND ABUNDANT HUMIDITY WILL TRIGGER
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...AND ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL BE MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY...AND LOWER HUMIDITY
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...FINALLY QUIET AROUND THE REGION (SAVE A SMALL
CELL OR TWO). WE BELIEVE THIS SHOULD BE THE TREND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS WE HAVE LOST THE HEATING OF THE DAY.
THERE WERE STILL A FEW MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES FLOATING AROUND
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION SO WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES
IN THIS AREA ONLY.

ALREADY HAVE SOME REPORTS OF FOG SO PATCHY FOG LOOKS FOR THE
NIGHT...PERHAPS BECOMING MORE EXTENSIVE TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT WILL
LET THE NIGHT CREW DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT TO UPGRADE FOG TO AREAS.
STILL THINK A BIT MORE STRATUS COULD FORM FURTHERS SOUTH
MITIGATING FOG A LITTLE IN THE MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.


EVEN THOUGH THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES NEEDED ADJUSTMENT AGAIN WE
LEFT MOST OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE. BASED ON CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S REGION WIDE...LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR...MID TO UPPER
60S...EXCEPT SOME LOWER 60S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS AND WHERE
HEAVIER RAIN FELL ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA...AND NJ. NW FLOW CONTINUES
ALOFT. WEAK IMPULSES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE DIFFUSE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING SBCAPES TO BE MAINLY IN THE 500-1500 J/KG
RANGE WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVER THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. MONDAY SHOULD NOT BE A
WASHOUT...BUT A COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NW FLOW
ALOFT...AND THE BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/TSRAS. THE HIGHER
POPS WERE USED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. H850 TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE +15C TO +17C RANGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE HEAT BUILDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE REGION IS BETWEEN A
SHARPENING 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GRTLKS AND A SHARPENING
TROF OVER THE MARITIMES AS A 500HPA CUTOFF DIVES SE FM HUDSON`S
BAY TO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE. THE INITIAL RESPONSE IS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE FORMS/STRENGTHENS OVER THE GRTLKS INCRG SUBSIDENCE...AND
SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLC COAST...AND WAA INCREASES. WHILE THE
SUBSIDENCE WILL PRETTY MUCH DOMINATE...ISOLD CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
ASSOC WITH SHORT WVS DIVING DOWN THE WEST PERIPHERY OF THE CUT
OFF TO OUR EAST...WAA...DIURNAL HEATING MAINLY OVER ELEVATED TRRN
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

OTHERWISE TD WILL BE IN THE 60S...MAX TEMPS TUES WILL BE ARND 90
IN MANY AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER HIR TRRN. WED WILL TAKE THESE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S IN MOST AREAS. MINS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR
THE MOST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY THURSDAY THE 500 HPA RIDGE HAS BECOME QUITE SHARP FM FCA INTO
LABRADOR...AS A CUT OFF RIDES UP THE WEST SIDE OF IT INTO HUD
BAY...WITH A TRAILING CDFNT. SFC PREFRONTAL TROF PUSHES ACROSS
THE RGN EARLY THU...WITH CDFNT CLEARING THE RGN IN THE AFTN. THIS
CDFNT IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS...AND MUCH DRIER AIR IS MVNG INTO
FCA BY MID DAY. DYNAMICS...BOUNDARY...AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NOT
WELL ALIGNED ATTM...SO ITS A SCT TSTM DAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER INTO RGN...WITH MAX TEMPS NR 90
STILL THU AS TD GOES FROM MID TO LOW 60S. NOT MUCH OF A FRONT.

THUR NT INTO WEEKEND 500HPA FLOW FLATTENS BCMG ZONAL. SFC HIGH
BUILDS FM OHIO VLY INTO RGN THU NT INTO FRI. TEMPS STILL REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES ABV NORMALS WITH TD STILL IN THE 60S. SAT ANOTHER
WEAK CDFNT WILL CROSS THE RGN...BUT DYNAMICS AND JET REMAIN WELL N
OF RGN...ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO TRIGGER ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS.
OTHERWISE A PS-MS START TO THE WEEKEND WITH JUST A CHC TSTM SAT.
WILL POPULATE WITH WPC AS CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT REMAINS BTWN
ECMWF/GFS/WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES...FOG WILL BE
LIKELY AT MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS INTO THIS MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS FOR IFR INCLUDE KPSF/KGFL WHICH ARE TYPICAL FOR RADIATION
FOG. KPSF ALREADY LIFR AND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH 12Z. VSBYS JUST
STARTING TO DROP TO MVFR LEVELS AT KGFL AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE TO IFR STARTING BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. DECIDED TO MENTION A
TEMPO AT KPOU FOR IFR BETWEEN 08Z-10Z SINCE RAINFALL OCCURRED
YESTERDAY RESULTING IN MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BREAKS IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS LOWER HERE THAN AT
KGFL/KPSF. WILL MENTION MVFR CONDITIONS AT KALB...ALTHOUGH FOG WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE VICINITY ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER SO WILL ADD BCFG.

FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12Z-13Z AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED
WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE
COVERAGE WILL MENTION VCSH FOR NOW. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING S-SW AROUND 5 KTS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. AREAS FG.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVNG AS
A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NEW YORK. MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DRIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES...DAYTIME HEATING AND ABUNDANT
HUMIDITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...AND
ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL BE MAINLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY...AND LOWER THE HUMIDITY A LITTLE.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT IN
THE PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY INTO TUESDAY EXCEPT IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THIS EVENING INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TRRN...IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED WITHIN BANK RISES...AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 270546
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
146 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID AIR MASS HAS SETTLED INTO THE REGION. A WEAK BOUNDARY
WILL KEEP RESIDUAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO
THE EVENING. MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
BUILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
DRIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCES...DAYTIME HEATING AND ABUNDANT HUMIDITY WILL TRIGGER
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...AND ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL BE MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY...AND LOWER HUMIDITY
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...FINALLY QUIET AROUND THE REGION (SAVE A SMALL
CELL OR TWO). WE BELIEVE THIS SHOULD BE THE TREND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS WE HAVE LOST THE HEATING OF THE DAY.
THERE WERE STILL A FEW MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES FLOATING AROUND
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION SO WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES
IN THIS AREA ONLY.

ALREADY HAVE SOME REPORTS OF FOG SO PATCHY FOG LOOKS FOR THE
NIGHT...PERHAPS BECOMING MORE EXTENSIVE TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT WILL
LET THE NIGHT CREW DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT TO UPGRADE FOG TO AREAS.
STILL THINK A BIT MORE STRATUS COULD FORM FURTHERS SOUTH
MITIGATING FOG A LITTLE IN THE MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.


EVEN THOUGH THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES NEEDED ADJUSTMENT AGAIN WE
LEFT MOST OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE. BASED ON CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S REGION WIDE...LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR...MID TO UPPER
60S...EXCEPT SOME LOWER 60S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS AND WHERE
HEAVIER RAIN FELL ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA...AND NJ. NW FLOW CONTINUES
ALOFT. WEAK IMPULSES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE DIFFUSE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING SBCAPES TO BE MAINLY IN THE 500-1500 J/KG
RANGE WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVER THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. MONDAY SHOULD NOT BE A
WASHOUT...BUT A COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NW FLOW
ALOFT...AND THE BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/TSRAS. THE HIGHER
POPS WERE USED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. H850 TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE +15C TO +17C RANGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE HEAT BUILDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE REGION IS BETWEEN A
SHARPENING 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GRTLKS AND A SHARPENING
TROF OVER THE MARITIMES AS A 500HPA CUTOFF DIVES SE FM HUDSON`S
BAY TO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE. THE INITIAL RESPONSE IS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE FORMS/STRENGTHENS OVER THE GRTLKS INCRG SUBSIDENCE...AND
SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLC COAST...AND WAA INCREASES. WHILE THE
SUBSIDENCE WILL PRETTY MUCH DOMINATE...ISOLD CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
ASSOC WITH SHORT WVS DIVING DOWN THE WEST PERIPHERY OF THE CUT
OFF TO OUR EAST...WAA...DIURNAL HEATING MAINLY OVER ELEVATED TRRN
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

OTHERWISE TD WILL BE IN THE 60S...MAX TEMPS TUES WILL BE ARND 90
IN MANY AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER HIR TRRN. WED WILL TAKE THESE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S IN MOST AREAS. MINS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR
THE MOST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY THURSDAY THE 500 HPA RIDGE HAS BECOME QUITE SHARP FM FCA INTO
LABRADOR...AS A CUT OFF RIDES UP THE WEST SIDE OF IT INTO HUD
BAY...WITH A TRAILING CDFNT. SFC PREFRONTAL TROF PUSHES ACROSS
THE RGN EARLY THU...WITH CDFNT CLEARING THE RGN IN THE AFTN. THIS
CDFNT IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS...AND MUCH DRIER AIR IS MVNG INTO
FCA BY MID DAY. DYNAMICS...BOUNDARY...AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NOT
WELL ALIGNED ATTM...SO ITS A SCT TSTM DAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER INTO RGN...WITH MAX TEMPS NR 90
STILL THU AS TD GOES FROM MID TO LOW 60S. NOT MUCH OF A FRONT.

THUR NT INTO WEEKEND 500HPA FLOW FLATTENS BCMG ZONAL. SFC HIGH
BUILDS FM OHIO VLY INTO RGN THU NT INTO FRI. TEMPS STILL REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES ABV NORMALS WITH TD STILL IN THE 60S. SAT ANOTHER
WEAK CDFNT WILL CROSS THE RGN...BUT DYNAMICS AND JET REMAIN WELL N
OF RGN...ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO TRIGGER ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS.
OTHERWISE A PS-MS START TO THE WEEKEND WITH JUST A CHC TSTM SAT.
WILL POPULATE WITH WPC AS CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT REMAINS BTWN
ECMWF/GFS/WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES...FOG WILL BE
LIKELY AT MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS INTO THIS MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS FOR IFR INCLUDE KPSF/KGFL WHICH ARE TYPICAL FOR RADIATION
FOG. KPSF ALREADY LIFR AND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH 12Z. VSBYS JUST
STARTING TO DROP TO MVFR LEVELS AT KGFL AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE TO IFR STARTING BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. DECIDED TO MENTION A
TEMPO AT KPOU FOR IFR BETWEEN 08Z-10Z SINCE RAINFALL OCCURRED
YESTERDAY RESULTING IN MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BREAKS IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS LOWER HERE THAN AT
KGFL/KPSF. WILL MENTION MVFR CONDITIONS AT KALB...ALTHOUGH FOG WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE VICINITY ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER SO WILL ADD BCFG.

FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12Z-13Z AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED
WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE
COVERAGE WILL MENTION VCSH FOR NOW. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING S-SW AROUND 5 KTS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. AREAS FG.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVNG AS
A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NEW YORK. MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DRIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES...DAYTIME HEATING AND ABUNDANT
HUMIDITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...AND
ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL BE MAINLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY...AND LOWER THE HUMIDITY A LITTLE.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT IN
THE PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY INTO TUESDAY EXCEPT IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THIS EVENING INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TRRN...IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED WITHIN BANK RISES...AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KALY 270546
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
146 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID AIR MASS HAS SETTLED INTO THE REGION. A WEAK BOUNDARY
WILL KEEP RESIDUAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO
THE EVENING. MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
BUILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
DRIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCES...DAYTIME HEATING AND ABUNDANT HUMIDITY WILL TRIGGER
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...AND ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL BE MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY...AND LOWER HUMIDITY
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...FINALLY QUIET AROUND THE REGION (SAVE A SMALL
CELL OR TWO). WE BELIEVE THIS SHOULD BE THE TREND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS WE HAVE LOST THE HEATING OF THE DAY.
THERE WERE STILL A FEW MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES FLOATING AROUND
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION SO WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES
IN THIS AREA ONLY.

ALREADY HAVE SOME REPORTS OF FOG SO PATCHY FOG LOOKS FOR THE
NIGHT...PERHAPS BECOMING MORE EXTENSIVE TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT WILL
LET THE NIGHT CREW DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT TO UPGRADE FOG TO AREAS.
STILL THINK A BIT MORE STRATUS COULD FORM FURTHERS SOUTH
MITIGATING FOG A LITTLE IN THE MAINLY THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.


EVEN THOUGH THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES NEEDED ADJUSTMENT AGAIN WE
LEFT MOST OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONE. BASED ON CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S REGION WIDE...LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR...MID TO UPPER
60S...EXCEPT SOME LOWER 60S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS AND WHERE
HEAVIER RAIN FELL ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA...AND NJ. NW FLOW CONTINUES
ALOFT. WEAK IMPULSES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE DIFFUSE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING SBCAPES TO BE MAINLY IN THE 500-1500 J/KG
RANGE WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVER THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. MONDAY SHOULD NOT BE A
WASHOUT...BUT A COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NW FLOW
ALOFT...AND THE BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/TSRAS. THE HIGHER
POPS WERE USED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. H850 TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE +15C TO +17C RANGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE HEAT BUILDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE REGION IS BETWEEN A
SHARPENING 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GRTLKS AND A SHARPENING
TROF OVER THE MARITIMES AS A 500HPA CUTOFF DIVES SE FM HUDSON`S
BAY TO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE. THE INITIAL RESPONSE IS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE FORMS/STRENGTHENS OVER THE GRTLKS INCRG SUBSIDENCE...AND
SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLC COAST...AND WAA INCREASES. WHILE THE
SUBSIDENCE WILL PRETTY MUCH DOMINATE...ISOLD CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
ASSOC WITH SHORT WVS DIVING DOWN THE WEST PERIPHERY OF THE CUT
OFF TO OUR EAST...WAA...DIURNAL HEATING MAINLY OVER ELEVATED TRRN
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.

OTHERWISE TD WILL BE IN THE 60S...MAX TEMPS TUES WILL BE ARND 90
IN MANY AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER HIR TRRN. WED WILL TAKE THESE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S IN MOST AREAS. MINS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR
THE MOST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY THURSDAY THE 500 HPA RIDGE HAS BECOME QUITE SHARP FM FCA INTO
LABRADOR...AS A CUT OFF RIDES UP THE WEST SIDE OF IT INTO HUD
BAY...WITH A TRAILING CDFNT. SFC PREFRONTAL TROF PUSHES ACROSS
THE RGN EARLY THU...WITH CDFNT CLEARING THE RGN IN THE AFTN. THIS
CDFNT IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS...AND MUCH DRIER AIR IS MVNG INTO
FCA BY MID DAY. DYNAMICS...BOUNDARY...AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NOT
WELL ALIGNED ATTM...SO ITS A SCT TSTM DAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER INTO RGN...WITH MAX TEMPS NR 90
STILL THU AS TD GOES FROM MID TO LOW 60S. NOT MUCH OF A FRONT.

THUR NT INTO WEEKEND 500HPA FLOW FLATTENS BCMG ZONAL. SFC HIGH
BUILDS FM OHIO VLY INTO RGN THU NT INTO FRI. TEMPS STILL REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES ABV NORMALS WITH TD STILL IN THE 60S. SAT ANOTHER
WEAK CDFNT WILL CROSS THE RGN...BUT DYNAMICS AND JET REMAIN WELL N
OF RGN...ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO TRIGGER ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS.
OTHERWISE A PS-MS START TO THE WEEKEND WITH JUST A CHC TSTM SAT.
WILL POPULATE WITH WPC AS CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT REMAINS BTWN
ECMWF/GFS/WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES...FOG WILL BE
LIKELY AT MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS INTO THIS MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS FOR IFR INCLUDE KPSF/KGFL WHICH ARE TYPICAL FOR RADIATION
FOG. KPSF ALREADY LIFR AND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH 12Z. VSBYS JUST
STARTING TO DROP TO MVFR LEVELS AT KGFL AND CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE TO IFR STARTING BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. DECIDED TO MENTION A
TEMPO AT KPOU FOR IFR BETWEEN 08Z-10Z SINCE RAINFALL OCCURRED
YESTERDAY RESULTING IN MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BREAKS IN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS LOWER HERE THAN AT
KGFL/KPSF. WILL MENTION MVFR CONDITIONS AT KALB...ALTHOUGH FOG WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE VICINITY ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER SO WILL ADD BCFG.

FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12Z-13Z AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED
WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE
COVERAGE WILL MENTION VCSH FOR NOW. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING S-SW AROUND 5 KTS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. AREAS FG.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVNG AS
A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NEW YORK. MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DRIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES...DAYTIME HEATING AND ABUNDANT
HUMIDITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...AND
ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL BE MAINLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY...AND LOWER THE HUMIDITY A LITTLE.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT IN
THE PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY INTO TUESDAY EXCEPT IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THIS EVENING INTO
TUESDAY...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TRRN...IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED WITHIN BANK RISES...AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE.

IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW- LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KBTV 270535
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
135 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TODAY WILL BE DYING
DOWN FOLLOWING SUNSET. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT MONDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. OTHERWISE AREAS OF
FOG ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND WILL PERSIST INTO
THE MID MORNING HOURS. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF FORECAST AREA LATE
THIS EVENING...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN. MAIN THREAT
WITH THUNDERSTORMS IS HEAVY RAIN DUE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF CELLS.
DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES WITH RAIN STILL
FALLING ACROSS EASTERN ADDISON COUNTY PROMPTED ISSUANCE OF FLASH
FLOOD WARNING. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WIND DOWN AS WE REACH MIDNIGHT
WITH DRY CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AREAWIDE
LATER TONIGHT. ALREADY SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING...EXPECT IT
BECOME MORE PREVALENT OVERNIGHT. STILL LOOKING AT MIN TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED
WELL TO OUR NORTH IN NORTHERN QUEBEC. 850 WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK
SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SOME POP UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON.
DID GO A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 EACH DAY. THE NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE MILD WITH TEMPS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...WARMEST STRETCH OF WEATHER OF THE
SEASON THEN OCCURS BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS DEEP LAYER
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS AND EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A SURFACE FRONT TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS PARENT CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH. GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH THIS
FEATURE, AND WILL LEAN TOWARD MORE CONSISTENT AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER
UKMET/ECMWF/CANADIAN OUTPUT. WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND MODEST
SHEAR IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS, RUNNING IDEA OF A FEW STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE. CAN`T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED AIRMASS STORM HERE AND THERE DURING THE LATE/AFTERNOON
EARLY EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY EITHER, BUT GIVEN LACK OF A
LARGER-SCALE FORCING MECHANISM MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HIGHS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 87-92 RANGE ON WEDNESDAY, THEN 85 TO 90 ON
THURSDAY WITH OVERNIGHT AND MUGGY LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 65
TO 70 RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MAINLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY NEXT FRIDAY AS HIGHS SETTLE BACK IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S ON LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW. BY NEXT WEEKEND SOME
DISPARITY BETWEEN THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EURO OUTPUT IN REGARD TO
A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OR FRONT SAGGING INTO OUR REGION AND
SUBSEQUENT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. OF COURSE, THE GFS IS THE
FURTHEST SOUTH AND MOST ROBUST WITH COOL AIR PUSH FROM THE NORTH,
A KNOWN BIAS. GIVEN MID-SUMMER CLIMO WILL DOWNPLAY THIS SOLUTION
SOMEWHAT FOR NOW AND ADVERTISE ONLY A TOKEN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A
STRAY INSTABILITY SHOWER/STORM DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE 55 TO 65 RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD UNDER VARIABLY
LIGHT FLOW AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THE FEW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE REGION ARE ALL BUT DONE...JUST KEEPING VCSH AROUND RUT
UNTIL 02Z JUST IN CASE THE LAST ONE OUT THERE DOESN`T DISSIPATE
BEFORE IT PASSES THE STATION. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS PATCHY IFR IN
LOW STRATUS AND/OR BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK IN THE 06-13Z TIME FRAME AND
A CHANCE OF MVFR FOR RUT FOR THE SAME TIME.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED AS WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAILY CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED, BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED UNTIL THURSDAY
WHEN A PASSAGE OF A SURFACE FRONT WILL ALLOW SOMEWHAT BETTER
ORGANIZATION. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 2-8 PM EACH DAY
WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, PRIMARILY AT
KMPV/KSLK.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...HIGH PRESSURE/VFR WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...RJS/MV




000
FXUS61 KBTV 270535
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
135 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TODAY WILL BE DYING
DOWN FOLLOWING SUNSET. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT MONDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHERN RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. OTHERWISE AREAS OF
FOG ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND WILL PERSIST INTO
THE MID MORNING HOURS. OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF FORECAST AREA LATE
THIS EVENING...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN. MAIN THREAT
WITH THUNDERSTORMS IS HEAVY RAIN DUE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF CELLS.
DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES WITH RAIN STILL
FALLING ACROSS EASTERN ADDISON COUNTY PROMPTED ISSUANCE OF FLASH
FLOOD WARNING. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WIND DOWN AS WE REACH MIDNIGHT
WITH DRY CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AREAWIDE
LATER TONIGHT. ALREADY SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING...EXPECT IT
BECOME MORE PREVALENT OVERNIGHT. STILL LOOKING AT MIN TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED
WELL TO OUR NORTH IN NORTHERN QUEBEC. 850 WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK
SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SOME POP UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON.
DID GO A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 EACH DAY. THE NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE MILD WITH TEMPS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...WARMEST STRETCH OF WEATHER OF THE
SEASON THEN OCCURS BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS DEEP LAYER
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS AND EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A SURFACE FRONT TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS PARENT CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH. GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH THIS
FEATURE, AND WILL LEAN TOWARD MORE CONSISTENT AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER
UKMET/ECMWF/CANADIAN OUTPUT. WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND MODEST
SHEAR IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS, RUNNING IDEA OF A FEW STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE. CAN`T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED AIRMASS STORM HERE AND THERE DURING THE LATE/AFTERNOON
EARLY EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY EITHER, BUT GIVEN LACK OF A
LARGER-SCALE FORCING MECHANISM MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HIGHS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 87-92 RANGE ON WEDNESDAY, THEN 85 TO 90 ON
THURSDAY WITH OVERNIGHT AND MUGGY LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 65
TO 70 RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MAINLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY NEXT FRIDAY AS HIGHS SETTLE BACK IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S ON LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW. BY NEXT WEEKEND SOME
DISPARITY BETWEEN THIS MORNING`S GFS AND EURO OUTPUT IN REGARD TO
A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OR FRONT SAGGING INTO OUR REGION AND
SUBSEQUENT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. OF COURSE, THE GFS IS THE
FURTHEST SOUTH AND MOST ROBUST WITH COOL AIR PUSH FROM THE NORTH,
A KNOWN BIAS. GIVEN MID-SUMMER CLIMO WILL DOWNPLAY THIS SOLUTION
SOMEWHAT FOR NOW AND ADVERTISE ONLY A TOKEN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A
STRAY INSTABILITY SHOWER/STORM DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE 55 TO 65 RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD UNDER VARIABLY
LIGHT FLOW AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THE FEW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE REGION ARE ALL BUT DONE...JUST KEEPING VCSH AROUND RUT
UNTIL 02Z JUST IN CASE THE LAST ONE OUT THERE DOESN`T DISSIPATE
BEFORE IT PASSES THE STATION. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS PATCHY IFR IN
LOW STRATUS AND/OR BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK IN THE 06-13Z TIME FRAME AND
A CHANCE OF MVFR FOR RUT FOR THE SAME TIME.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED AS WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAILY CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED, BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED UNTIL THURSDAY
WHEN A PASSAGE OF A SURFACE FRONT WILL ALLOW SOMEWHAT BETTER
ORGANIZATION. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 2-8 PM EACH DAY
WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, PRIMARILY AT
KMPV/KSLK.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...HIGH PRESSURE/VFR WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...RJS/KGM
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...RJS/MV



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